It may get interesting if these contract aren't rolled over.

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD
ISSUED TODAY 71 0 94
SO FAR FOR April 5,155 61 4,178


New York-April 22-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 55,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 15,000


paper gold traded 5.5 million ounces today. Arden said earlier that there was no change in the total gold stocks.

Beware of the technicals look to the fundamentals in these changing times.

At $640 this represents $.11 over spot. Not bad. How much could I sell this for today?

Splendiferous is the Ivy which sprouts, undaunted, and now nourished by your thoughts, that which houses, cloaks, a soulthe bricks which are me, mine, offer a thought of thanks for the warmth

my hesitation wears the finest shoes...

http://www.espin.net/markets/default.asp
Shows most world indices of merit.
With the Dow, DAX, TSE, and OZ indices coming to a top.
And the FTSE, Swiss, MIBTEL, CAC, IBEX indices are currently rolling over.
This is in an essense the lockstep that is needed when all major indices are on the same wavelength.

The swing prior to a turn down in the indices, normally oscillates down to the zero line.
It is quite often the case, that the cycle where the oscillations pass through the zero line and then tracks back up, is the cycle prior to the correction.
My take is that after the cycle hits it's next high ( which should be lower than the previous high ) .
Then that is the time that the indices will put in their final high.
From then on there should be a rapid move of the oscillators downwards as the market sells off, creating worse internals, which will stimulate the selling.
This indicator is very quick at picking the bottoms of these large downdraughts, so it will be interesting to see who it fares over the coming correction.


As to solar activity, there has been some good activity of late.
They had a CD burnout just this last weekend.
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest.html
You can see the flare retreating behind the sun on the right hand side.

I emailed message about silver, let me know if you got it.

Someone had mentioned Lexington ( STIVX on the nasdaq ) earlier. You can click on "Holdings" to see their portfolio. It's a portfolio that would make John Disney smile. Might even get a few shares myself. Here's a link. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stivx.html

Looks to me that silver is getting squeezed into the apex of a triangle which seems to have formed over the last month or and so. My guess is that silver doesn't have sufficient momentum to break out of this formation on the upside.

It looks to me that silver is also getting squeezed into the apex af a larger triangle which has take eight months or so to form.

My interpretation is that after some resistence on the downside around 610 we may break further down close towards the 575 mark over the next week or so.

If it looks like this is happening I will personally regard silver as a screaming BUY and will substantially increasing physical holding.

Korea in the red
Down another 3.16%

And Korea was quoted as the leading example of Asia's push to right it's wrongs.

Some ramblings about near term technical versus fundamental analysis. ( I am no expert in this area )

I am very concerned that we are going to be outmaneuvered by the USG and its PPT. I believe that the large amount of paper gold and paper silver traded daily can and will be used to manipulate spot prices to set up a technical resistance.

I believe that T.A. is useful because it maps the actual emotional action of people as they invest in the market. A key to the good useage of this analysis tool is that the data it is analyzing is valid. BUT if USG or others drive down prices say of paper gold ( to give the indication that actal spot gold and gold future prices are headed down ) at just the appropriate resistance point - would give a false neagative.

I think that this was tried recently with palladium and for the first time in a long long time it failed. It failed because to many folks and companies NEEDED real palladium and NEED it NOW. The folks that ended driving up the prices were the people that had to fulfill the contracts. They thought that they could fool the user one more time into rolling over contracts BUT it didn't happen.


Well, I think a very similar situation is coming up in the gold and silver pits. A big play will be made to scare people out of taking delivery or into selling. The big money will be in the holding this time around, The paper game has scared us for years and years BUT NOW we can see some of the games as they come down the pike.

Buy gold and silver, take delivery and hold on to it. The trend is up.

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 00:22
sharefin ( What went wrong and will the others follow? ) ID#284255:
Korea in the red
Down another 3.16%


Good point Sharefin. South Korea was one of the good guys. They IMF said they were out of trouble becuase they did everything the IMF way.

I am getting the feeling that South Korea is doing much worse than Malaysia. I wonder what their stock charts look like when compared to each other. Is Malaysia rebounding as South Korea continues it second leg down?

That bastard Camdesuss was involved, don't you get it yet...

FWN:
Closing N.Y. Metals: Mostly Higher; Gold Breaks
200-day Avg.



New York-April 22-FWN--THE PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX
ended the day mostly higher, with the biggest gains
coming in palladium due to increasing tightness amid the
continuing delay in Russian exports of the Platinum Group
Metals ( PGM ) .
Platinum futures also continue to be supported by the
Russian delays, while funds helped push gold futures higher
as a 200-day moving average was broken.
The only metal that did not advance was silver, which
finished slightly lower and was described as "in limbo" and
the "forgotten metal."
Competition for tight palladium supplies has driven
prices up sharply as the market continues to wonder just
when the first Russian exports of the year will occur. A
trader reported one-month lease rates hit 230% today,
helping drive prices to historic highs, with the London
afternoon fix to $380 after a morning fix of $338.
"The feeling is it's very tight, and unless ( Russian )
material starts coming onto the market, it will stay tight,"
said Bernard Savaiko, director of futures research with
PaineWebber.
Echoed a trader: "The planet sees no end to the
palladium crisis. It probably will not end until the first
boat leaves the Russian ports heading to the Far East with
palladium in its bow."
The June palladium futures spent a good chunk of the
day stuck at $12, limit up. Platinum also spent the day in
firmer territory, although analysts have been explaining
over the past couple of days that its gains have not been as
pronounced as palladium because there is less tightness in
the platinum market.
July platinum finds resistance at $425 and support
around $410, one trader reported.
The sharp moves in palladium make it difficult to
target meaningful technical levels for this metal, he
continued.
"We're at all-time highs, so your guess is as good as
mine," he said. "We're moving $10 on 10 lots now. All
( technical ) numbers have been blown out."
Market participants will be watching Friday for the
outcome of another showdown between Russian Prime Minister
Boris Yeltsin and the Duma, with thoughts that the continuing
political stalemate may preoccupy officials and further
delay any exports of the PGM.
The Duma is scheduled to vote a third time on Yeltsin's
choice for prime minister, Sergei Kirienko. The Duma has
already rejected the candidate twice, and if it does so
again, Yeltsin has threatened to dissolve the Duma and call
for new elections.
Meanwhile, gold futures finished higher on a day when
several floor sources noted the yellow metal got some early
support from fund buying. A dealer noted that open interest
figures released today showed a big increase, and he
anticipates another on Thursday.

June gold broke through a key 200-day moving average of
$314.30, triggering some stops, he pointed out. The featured
selling has been from producers, he added.
Savaiko added that the recent weakening of the U.S.
dollar, along with strength in the XAU stock index of gold-
related companies over the past couple of days, also has
helped gold futures.
Still, he said, "we have to get through resistance just
above the market, around $317 in June gold, if we're really
going to start to move up in earnest."
He added that gold continues to draw some encouragement
from thoughts that central banks in Europe may be less
inclined to sell more of the metal ahead of European
economic and monetary union.
Nearby resistance for June gold was put at $316, with
support at $313 and $310.50.

eb---

the monex man posted he was going to cannes for some convention, and
for any wandering kitcoite to join him IF they could....assume he
is still over there...said he'd be gone for a while. are you
speed-reading with your eyes closed again? he'll be back shortly..hehehe.

looks like furrystein has assumed his proper position here....
his attack on mike cost him an appendage or two..reminds me of
the 'holy grail' where the knights fight, and one keeps getting
arms, legs, and finally his head cut-off, and still clamors for
more....the exchange was one-sided....the troops rushed to his defense..
yet none was needed..mike had eviscerated the gumblio--- ( kinda-like a peopleo except on skis ) yet the carcass drew more steel..and more..
and more....mike and strad-man are the 2 most respected posters here...
better to tug on superman's cape.....best learn to hop on 3 legs..


time to load-up on gold calls...been washing dishes and scrubbing
floors for the peopleo. trying to get them to relenquish their paper,
so i can trade it for more paper.....paper gold ti. adding pressure to
the system, and feeding the families of the spec's..

Technical analysis should include dollar weakness. Those who preach short term trading, are welcome to do it. Sooner or later they will reenter the market by paying more for stocks or the physical.

Staying for the long term ( 3 yrs and more ) . Hope others do it also.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Up, Up and Away!

A.Goose
I think the whole region must be close a new wave down.
Their interest bills will be climbing ever so fast at the moment.
I can't see their debt levels reducing at the moment.

I have seen a few pieces from the press with a negative skew and conditions do not seem good in Asia. But they are few and far between.
It's almost as if the press have been told to keep quiet on how badly Asia is going.
Probably don't want to rock the Titanic.

Tolerant
You should have kept him on the leash.
We will have to hold you responsible.
After all someone must be held responsible.

Now stop counting all those shiny coins and go and get him.

I kneel before the door of your home, seeking forgiveness for my verbal outburstyou have never done anything wherein I should loose my tongue in such a manner, fashion

penitentkneeling, head down in shame

Gentlemen, do you think another S. Korean gold collection will
help matters ?

I gave him a dealer that sells silver commemeratives-one oz .9999 fine Ag for .10/OZ over spot. I thought that was a good deal. Some might be pretty, though they are going for scrap.
He asked about reselling, and I am not sure.
These don't have to be assayed do they? What's the rate for these to a dealer or refinery?

New York-April 22-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
COMBINED TOTAL
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

silver

TOTAL REGISTERED
-5,088 597,965 33,901,609
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
5,088 -597,965 55,355,926
COMBINED TOTAL
0 0 89,257,535

Remember that as of today:

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today
-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD
ISSUED TODAY 71 0 94
SO FAR FOR April 5,155 61 4,178

So comex has 169,237 ounces eligible for delivery while 417,800 ounces are presently schedule for delivery .

Would you mind so very terribly waiting until I get my December contracts delivered before you tell everybody they're out of gold????????

Yours truly, but getting a little nervous, just need a few months. Long as long as I can be, physical, futures, calls, stocks, mutuals, give me a bitty break, puleeeze?

Was thinking the same thing re the mismatch. Doubt he would have fared any better against the Stradmeister, either.

In regards to Korea-my coin dealers wife talked to a friend who's son
is teaching in Korea at a religious school. This guy got a touch paranoid a while back and took all his cash out of the bank. He told his mother that the banks will not let anyone have cash-he was lucky!
Also said that he had to buy paper and pencils if he wanted to give a test from his own pocket. teachers are not getting paid and it sounded like that has been the norm for some time.

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 00:57
Prometheus ( @Mr. A. Goose ) ID#210235:

Sorry, Prometheus mums the word.


Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 01:05
Rack ( A. Goose Korea ) ID#411163:

Sounds very scary. One year ago, no one would have believed it. It can happen here also.

Wow, look at that palladium. You know gold can act the same way.
Prepare and be ready ... buy gold and silver and take delivery.

Goodnight all.

On the other hand, if your words take hold and cause panic in the investment community, the profits should allow me to fly to New York and take T1 up on his lunch offer . . . .

Holler away!!!

G'Night.

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 00:46
sharefin ( Tsunami inbound? ) ID#284255:
-


" It's almost as if the press have been told to keep quiet on how badly Asia is going.
Probably don't want to rock the Titanic. "

Sharefin, we know that the government calls media editors and let's them know when stories are not in the interest of the "people". It is going on all the time in the U.S.A.

Reporting the realities of the world would surely cause a stock market crash and the USG would surely we angry about that.

Goodnight

You just have to love that rouge palladium. I will give you 10 paper ounces of palladium for 1 real ounce... NOT any more.

Arise, Sir Tolerant and take the sword of gold and smite him clean.

I think Camadeus took Shaw's comments for his motto:
"I am myself, according to certain ethical systems, labeled liar, coward, thief and so on, and so is everyone else, and it is my deliberate, cheerful and extremely self-respecting intention to continue to the end of my life deceiving people, avoiding danger, making demands on principles of supply and demand instead of abstract justice, and indulging my appetites whenever circumstances commend such actions to my judgement."

Cherokee
How are those Dec $400 gold calls going?

This one I think takes the cake, it has risen from 24 cents to 37 cents, a rise of some 56% on extremely haevy volume of 21 million, compared with an average volumen of some 1.3 million. It has been creeping up for some time on good volume. Yesterday it went up from 21 cents to 24 cents on 5 million volume. They had a good result, cost reduction as well as production increase. My broker thinks they might be a takeover in the pipeline, however would not elaborate further. This shows how undervalued some of those little producers are. Australien Stockexchange code ARS. Happy Trading!

We are all asleep in the same DREAM, Leo, Kottke, your arrival will re-create the aura...fastidious pancakes, and homemade muffins, breakfast awaits

Lihir @ $2.68 up 21c approx 9%
OZ gold index up 62.7 to 1417 - 4.6%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Immortal wisdom
Framed the sure boundaries
Of the primal atom
Proton and electron
Were ordered and controlled
From these the Universe was forged
Gave birth to Plenty and Beauty
Conceived the wonder of Goodness
Of Love, for such as we.

But we, wanton, we broke the bonds
Of the immutable atom
We set its awesome powers free
Not knowing and little caring
Of the sore burden we unleashed
Upon our own dear children
And their posterity.

Immortal wisdom
Laid down the course for the children
Through the long years yet to be
But we - we chose most wantonly to mar
Our childrens destiny
The fathers have betrayed the sons
And mothers of the years to be.

Forgive us Lord
Such base apostasy.

To Cherokee: The golden-eagle site is first rate and has many interesting opinions on gold. But that's not the issue.

As you know the golden eagle link was modified in order to stop the promotional messages that were being posted.

Have you noticed any golden eagle advertisements since it was disabled?

Certain was he, the mite in a dream, waxing poetic, as Giraffes ears brushed the clouds

Further to my earlier message, the above stock closed up 19 cent at 43 cents on nearly 40 million volume, which is 8 time the volume of yesterday and about 27 times the monthly average. The high was 45 cents, it opened at 25 cents, so, no large gap compared with yesterday's close of 24 cents. This has really gone beserk, I wonder what is going on. Will try to post the ASX Announcement later. In the past whenever something similar happened, that stock quickly came down again, ( East Coast Minerals for example ) however the trading behaviour as far as volume is concerned, looks like something big is ging on. The total of issues shares is some 224 millions, that means that about 1/6 of the entire stock was traded! Hhhmmmm Now, this is just a comment, it might be a bit late to get in now, but then again, who knows.

...aren't you?

Between you and OLD GOLD, you gentlemen are deciphering the entire "interesting" fundamental picture about to unfold for gold and silver over the next little while. Mr. ANOTHER and myself are simply your humble "guides."

Once again, I will repeat what I said in an earlier post: if this gold market should sustain its strong upward path, then YOU ( the Kitcoites and goldbugs in general ) are the heroes. You are the ones worthy of accolades. This surging gold market represents a belief in yourselves, your common sense, your keen perceptions, and your firm convictions against the enduring, severe adversity of the maniacal crowd.

Just keep looking for the answers. You will surely find them because they are staring you right in the face.

And with that thought, I will retire to bed. However, first, to paraphrase Clint Eastwood, I must ask the gold shorts one singular question:

"Do you feel lucky? Well, do you punks?"

Thanks.

F*

Yesterday, MICROSOFT reports much better than expected earnings, then proceeds to drop almost one dollar in after-hours trading.

Hhhhmmmmm?

What does it mean?

Thanks.

F*

Thanks for the LIHIR quote! If your quote is accurate, LIHIR has just blasted through its old all-time high of A$2.59 to A$2.68, up another 9% today or 91.4% HIGHER than its all-time low in January of A$1.40! Where LIHIR goes, VENGOLD ( VENGF ) is sure to follow as day follows night! We are now truly in BLAST-OFF MODE for ALL gold stocks but these two in particular shine as brightly as the best of 'em! Please post the closing numbers and thank-you again, mein Herr!

I'm NOT laughing at you. It's my opinion, however, that the environmental impact of mining is so RELATIVELY negligible that it's not worth worrying about.

For your children's sake do worry about decimation of bees, flies, moths, birds, bats- the pollinators and seed dispersers of the world's flora by pesticides and ignorance and well you know what.

Lots of talk about confiscation. A great topic for discussion.

Meanwhile, is your stuff fire proof and burglar proof? Just watching out for you.

Take care.

Thanks for all the talk of VENGOLD and LIHIR.I bought some VENGOLD
recently at 1.75CDN after doing my own DD.I agree with your idea that
this is a takeover candidate but at much higher prices.Given there
share in LIHIR they are a survivor with a lower POG and a multiplier
at a higher POG.I agree with Arden that gold in the ground will be valued
at several times higher valuations;this may not happen overnight...then again I could be wrong!Happy Trading!

LIHIR +28c to 275 up 11.3%.

hERR cHEEZEHEAD
Lihir closed up 25c at $2.75
Oz Gold index kept on rising right up into the close.
Closing at up 74.2 @ 1428.5 up 5.5%

Go GOLD

Happy days for OZ gold index back again. Cheers as I rip
into another can CUB kindly added some b group vitamins too.

Great timing and you are correct up 28c @ 2.75
Cold Gold 303 for me in the hot and steamy tropics.
The sweat is running down my back as I paint the kitchen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980423002740034?=front&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2196
Suharto 'should face court'
President Suharto should face criminal charges over the way he accumulated his private fortune, a prominent Muslim leader said yesterday.

Head of the 28-million strong Muhammadiyah group Amien Rais said in Jakarta: "Suharto himself must stand down, and then he will become just a common man - and if it is necessary we can bring him to court.

"We have every reason to ask him about his huge wealth. It must be explained to the public and it is a legal procedure to investigate him."

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980423005237051?=mar&template=Mar_Article.htx&maxfieldsize=3744
Remarks knock dollar

The US dollar moved lower against the yen yesterday after a senior Tokyo official said that the United States stock market would peak, Japanese assets were a buy and jokingly threatened to sell US treasuries to fund any defence of the yen.

At a symposium, Mr Sakakibara said, "I believe US stocks will peak out", although he did not give a time frame.

He said he also considered share prices in London to be high.

By contrast, Japan's economy was bottoming out and now was the time to buy Japanese assets, as foreign investors had started to do, he said.

"Sakakibara's remarks on the US stock market are quite unusual. There is a chance that his remarks may have a negative impact on a nervous US stock market,

Expectations persist that the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) may sell dollars aggressively in tandem with the announcement of final details of Japan's economic stimulus package tomorrow.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980421005742017?=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=4011?evID=19980423005237051//?evTop=mar//?evTemp=Mar_Article.htx//?evMFS=3744//
Full assault on yen may spark world recession

It appears that international speculators - in the wake of an inconclusive meeting of the Group of Seven ( G7 ) industrialised nations - have begun a concerted attack on Japan's currency and stock markets.

The scene could be set for some financial turbulence, which would make the Asian crisis pale by comparison, with signals the attack should intensify in the coming weeks. A speculative attack on the world's largest creditor nation is a proposition of an entirely different magnitude from an attack on small developing Asian economies.

An extreme scenario calls for a global recession. Here, the Japanese Government begins a wholesale dumping of its US Treasury holdings in an effort to stop the yen from plunging towards 150 to the US dollar, as assets flee the country.

The resultant jump in US interest rates deflates the American stock market bubble and triggers a deep recession in North America as well as the rest of the world.

The argument for the first phase of this scenario is a strong one. Japan's stock market seems ready to put on its scuba gear and head for the deep. In the financial year just ended, Japanese listed companies are projected to lose money - a post-war first. Admittedly, the average is pulled into negative territory mainly by the financial sector. Nonetheless, results for this financial year are expected to be even worse.

Yields for 10-year government bonds are also running below 1.5 per cent and still falling.

Government bond yields have historically never been as low.

There is also ample evidence to show the economy is in a deflationary tailspin. The economic problems are believed to be structural not cyclical, meaning there is little hope fiscal spending will provide more than a temporary anaesthetic.

In such circumstances it is not surprising to see investors rush for the exits in an increasingly disorderly fashion. Japans' top-five life insurers, for example, announced they were increasing their overseas portfolio allocation for this year by 1.8 trillion yen ( about HK$105.8 billion ) .

Despite the possibility of a massive portfolio shift out of Japan, however, the chances of an Indonesian- or even Korean-style crash are remote. Japan has a lot of money to throw at the problem. It does not depend of foreign hot money, being the worlds' largest creditor nation.

Economists in Japan are talking about another emergency spending package in the autumn to augment the 16 trillion yen stimulus package announced earlier this month.

Nor is the US likely to be in danger. Even if the Japanese Government starts selling off its entire US Treasury holdings ( worth US$220 billion as of March 31 ) , this is not necessarily cause for panic. The Bank of Japan would be forced to sell its dollar holdings mainly because the Japanese private sector would want to buy them.

Nonetheless, there is little to be complacent about. Japan's currency, stock and bond markets will continue their submarine exploration. The government is unlikely to try to do much to support the stock market. It has already lost one trillion yen worth of public pension money trying to do just that. People are beginning to grumble.

The Bank of Japan will try to defend the yen through heavy intervention in the currency markets. They may even get some help from the US Federal Reserve Board if the situation gets desperate enough.

Furthermore, Japan's government is unlikely to intervene when trading is heavy and the trend is clear. It will wait until the market is clearly over-extended and then hit hard and heavy in an effort to burn speculative yen sellers. This, however, will not stop the underlying portfolio shifts from steadily weakening the yen and stock and bond markets.

The underlying trend, needless to say, will not improve until Japan does what its G7 partners asked of it: reform its economic structure, deal with its financial system problems and implement "effective" fiscal stimulation measures.

The government is unlikely to try to do much to support the stock market.
It has already lost one trillion yen worth of public pension money trying
to do just that. People are beginning to grumble.

Furthermore, Japan's government is unlikely to intervene when trading
is heavy and the trend is clear. It will wait until the market is clearly
over-extended and then hit hard and heavy in an effort to burn
speculative yen sellers. This, however, will not stop the underlying
portfolio shifts from steadily weakening the yen and stock and bond
markets.

GOTT IM HIMMEL! I think I feel the BIG ONE comin' on! At A$2.75 LIHIR has indeed enetered BLAST-OFF MODE UP 96.4% from its all-time low @ A$1.40! And who says investing in gold mining stocks isn't profitable! Wait till gold soars past the century marks on its way to $1,000/oz.! Man is THAT gonn'a be exciting! Key to making money in gold is to BUY when everyone is pukin' it out and to SELL when Joe Battipaglia and Louis Yukaiser start toutin' it on the tube! CHEERS, MATES! You guys have done made my day before its scarcely begun!

So I dont, about twice a week. Takes me away to where I'm going,
when things get crouded down here. Vic country tourist feral
playground. Ferals gettin sick of yuppies. So I'll buy one of
their tickets, chances are, destination Nth Qld. Then I can
travel south on surfing safaris.

BART @ KITCO

Your side margins have gone awol.

Now Farfel can post a two page report on one line. ( :-^}

Hope you can fix this soon.

Love your sight. Many thanks.

Go gold

GCM8 edging higher.
Now @ $315.6


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Avid chatter
~~~~~~~~
seriously though I think we shall see downward continuity in the
european markets and that will add a new dimention of uncertainty in an

already super duper hyped up market .....

let's see what the night brings before pronouncing any judgements

here.... if the Japanese start to really unload US bonds it may turn into
your worst nightmare ( if you're a bull )

dollar bulls also gettin whapped pretty good .... this could lead to an large
outflow of foreign cash IMO

can US equities continue on their path to higher levels under those
conditions? ....me thinks not course I'm a bear and my opinion counts for
zilch here:}

-sometimes it's pretty dangerous to think here but I really can't see one
good reason to buy this market
-none of that stuff may matter, it aint mania certified -
-pavlov's dog is conditioned - paycheck, bell, salivate, buy
-you may be the best reason to buy the mkt - rationality is doomed in a mania

Even if we saw the market collapse into the MAs now, it'd still take
weeks and weeks of trading to conclusively reveal a top. The boyz
wont sell if they dont have to, and to the best of my knowledge of things
known or things possibly to be imagined, I just don't see any reason to
sell, that is a trend change type of sell, not a technical overbought
correction. Unless they blow up the WH and the Congressional
buildings, with all the reps in them on the same day, or unless Rubin or
AG suddenly die, there really is nothing out there. I don't understand the
hesitation here, 10,000 is a big fat juicy target, there for the asking.
Maybe the power is afraid that uncontrolled greed will lead to the top,
and since they are deathly afraid of allowing some smart ass technician
picking them off ( like me ) , they might feel the need to break here and
now to prevent an exhaustion gap blow-off, all of this is to say that no
matter what the pigs do from this point forward, the trend is still up and
any selling ( especially below 1100 ) is buyable with the objective to break
114230. Looks like I'll be flat for sometime, because I am getting sick of
this. I want those snakes to show their hand -- so far they have not.
done with this rant.

Favors says we go down from here into the end of the month, any thoughts?

on the part of this being exhausting .... the bonds are poised to
breakdown ...they are makin that all too clear here ... and the march is
sayin up yours .....we got prisonner money and we can do whatever we
wish ... but that ain't exactly true now ain't it?

it takes alot of money to make this thing dance and confidence ...neither
of which I think is really there for this to go into orbit

life is stranger than fiction...we seen the fiction part but have yet to see
what the cold harsh wind will bring

figure it this way. bears cried all the way through the 20's. One day they
were correct. Seems they passed up alot of rallies waiting for those 12
days of sell-off give or take a few until it hit 50% retrace. But less than a
month later, they shoulda become bulls again, for... uh about 25 years or
so. anyway.

that little sell-off we had whilst I was gone was just a teaser..... me thinks
the real turbulence lies just ahead of us .... the bears are done with they
have lost the will to fight ..... the world is long expecting the easy path
.....that of course is not the path that leads to nirvana

what you really have to ask yourself is "what's a reasonable level for the
market to be at?" when you discover the answer subtract about 40%
and you won't find it hard to be short at these levels:}

but none of this makes sense. It's all hot air. The air air rises, people see
it as a miracle, it keeps rising, someday they try this in a freezer and
things don't act the same. When they don't, I'll bring a coat until I'm sure
it's really tru the mania is over. Heck, I don't even look at levels
anymore. It's a chart with signals.

....and lest we forget the FTSE lead this breakout
.......and I suspect it will lead this decline

There's only one good reason for a low to get taken out in this bull--- to
collect more shorts. Otherwise, fundamentally I have no idea. I could
care less that Japan or Europe or Rubin is doing nothing or everything
right. With this kind of set-up in last 20 sdays.. shoot, I've been
expecting a real whopper of a rally since Tuesday. so they are dragging
this out... but it's gonna happen, the bars wound the coil.. at least that's
what the bars tell me. If the bars lie, well then they lie- it happens
everyday.

Mr. Yen has stated Japan has ample foreign reserves to intervene in the
foreign exchange market, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs
Eisuke Sakakibara said on Wednesday. "We have over $200 billion in
foreign reserves," he said. He also stated that the U.S. market is looking
more and more like the Japanese market just before it popped.

so far nekkei only down 100 points but I figure they'll be taken it straight
down through the lows tonite

when you see the nikkei drop below the 15000 level lock and load.
Because things will get real serious.

...things in Japan are already comming to a head... won't take much of a
blow to make it keel over and die

meanwhile back at the options ranch, my vix-adjusted p/c ratio has had
three days in a row under 11. i have never seen that in the 15 mos i've
been following it. had two in a row 8/5 and 8/6, one on 10/7, one on
2/26, one on 3/2. get the drift? it's either a top or a breakout move
which will have a minor pullback.

I am still wondering to myself how would the U.S. market react to a major
15 percent drop in the Nikkei or a 15 percent rise in that same market...
Because that kind of move is coming soon.

they already repaved all the roads rebuilt all the bridges and built all the
new dams in their last public works fiasco ....only thing left for them to do
is build cars and drive em into the sea of Japan:}

take your name serious when you talk about Japan. That economy has a
lot of pop in it. I would say the downside risk is 30 percent and the
upside potential is 70 percent.

personally I think drivin cars into the sea of Japan is unacceptable
behavoir so me thinks that Japan is going for the big Tanakan in the sky
( er ground as it were )

folkks over there ain't commitin suicide for the fun of it .... losing face is
perhaps more serious than some here might think

you're assuming folks are of a mind to buy - 'spose they aint - guess
they'll put 'em "on top of ole fuji - all covered with vcr's"

sounds like sakikibara is sending a message to japanese money
managers to dump US stocks and bonds. and they will, every manjack
of 'em, if that's the thing to do. day in and day out for months.

probably one could draw a parallel between the suicides in Japan today
with those of US investors jumpin off buildings back in 29

IMHO a rebound of the Japanese economy in the coming months is
much more likely the a major crash ( 30% ) of the U.S. market, and I am a
bear...

the part I like is how "they" have convinced the investors that US
multinationals are in a global market now ....course when that market is
evaporating it don;t count in earnings and revenues projections

course these US multinationals could just write off all that new capacity

-gold broke over its 200 dma today and into the 3rd of wave 3.
-abx had good earnings and peter munchkin must be smiling.
-abx has 3 years gold hedged @ $400/oz and 29 million oz. silver @ $5.30
-hear abx has sold forward for 5 yrs at 350 -

Well my best geuss is that the bull phaze is starting to change kinda like
the beginning of the end type thing. The counts with Magee are vague
and not really worth sticking too. Very volatile..............

-it wouldn't bother me if we went down 100 handles tonite ...nope no bother at all:}
-do you mean you think we are heading lower?

oleman .
charts say sell this thing here, but chat too bearish. Cant find a single
post calling for up tomorrow ( today now ) . Could everyone on the chat be right?

Things seem quiet on the Downunder shift. Gold Index very strong today
as mentioned below.
Also notice that Johannesburg Gold Index up 3.75% approx.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGLD&d=1d
Xau so strong that I expect it's time to get out the slide-rule and
calculate some fibonacci retracements. Sure hope I'm wrong !
Spot Gold around $314.00 now . Good Morning to all the up-overs
waking up soon. Happy Trading Today.

Hope you had a GOLDEN sunset on Cairns harbour
this arvo Nick. Best wishes. Buying those ANZ
put warrants again soon ? What about LHRWAA ;
4c to 23c in this run up from January. Silly me
just having boring NDY. Have a pleasant evening.

Hi, there in sunny Brissy
Great day for OZ GOLD STOCKS
So many of them bouncing upwards.
ANZWBP's & NABWMQ's look real good - so do many more.

Soon they shall look like Lihir


GCM8 just about to break though $316

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/asia_adb_e_1.html
MANILA, April 23 ( Reuters ) - Asia's tarnished economies will shine once again but only after a slow recovery, the chief economist of the Asian Development Bank told Reuters.

This recovery will take even longer if Japan's economy does not perk up, Jungsoo Lee said ahead of Thursday's release of the Bank's annual development report and next week's annual ADB meeting in Geneva.

``I can confidently say that it's not over,'' he told Reuters Television in an interview being aired on Thursday.

``The East Asian miracle was genuine, and the foundation for the East Asian miracle is still there, like the very high trading rate, high investment rate, and well-disciplined educated human resources,'' he said.

``All these will work for the more positive growth when these countries get out of this financial crisis,'' he added.

But this year will be a tough one.

``The financial crisis will take a heavy toll on Asian economies this year. Therefore dragon economies like Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong will only grow by two percent this year.

``The next tier dragon economies like Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand -- these countries will experience negative growth on the average and the economy of China will decelerate,'' he said.

Only South Asian countries, which have not been affected seriously by the crisis, will see a rise in growth.

On average, economic growth in developing Asia will be only four percent this year and somewhat higher next year.

The root cause of Asia's problems was structural rather than macro-economic, with massive flows of short-term foreign capital coming into very weak and poorly managed financial institutions.

Because the problems were structural and because of the possibility of a slowdown in the United States and Japan, it could take several years for the region to fully recover, he said.

It was still too soon to tell whether Indonesia, worst-hit by the crisis, would be able to recover.

``There are a lot uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's economy. The agreement with the IMF strengthened the Indonesian currency but any sign of recovery at this point in time seems very fragile, and much will depend on the government's action in implementing the reform package,'' Lee said.

He would not exclude another round of contagion in Asia if Indonesia fails to recover but added this time around the markets were better able to distinguish between countries doing their best to improve and those still hesitant to reform.

A large question mark hangs over the region from Japan.

``The potential recession in Japan is really a concern to developing Asia. Japan is a major investor and major trading partner for developing countries in Asia. An economic slowdown in Japan will certainly hurt the recovery process,'' Lee said.

``Asian developing countries, particularly those which have been seriously affected by the financial crisis, have to export their way out of the crisis. That will be difficult if Japan's economy stagnates.''

Good day from the chilly Midwest... Bart; no offense, but the other sight is named golden eagle like the coin of the same name. Sharefin...a contrarian on avid chatter? Looked like all stock markets last night were weak and your posts confirm my humble thinking. Chickenbones and the witch o' the north say we're at some kinda top. Gold looking good but many shorts await to defend the 320.20 in June. The battle begins @ High Noon tomorrow. Where's John Wayne or John Galt when you need them ? bbl

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/wannabee_f_1.html

There are evil spirits here.!!! Iswear I typed golden eagle in caps !!! Microsoft strikes again !!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/house_repu_1.html
``The administration needs to come to the realization that this Congress
will not turn over billions of dollars to a secret process at the IMF,'' Davis
said. ``Until the administration shows some willingness to reform the
process, things will move very slowly.''

When you say you are staying for 3 years or more - what do you, ( or anyone else ) , think of the idea expressed here quite often of selling half when you have doubled, maybe better yet putting in stop losses at a double figure, and raising it until stopped out? Then you are playing with someone elses money ;- ) and can go for the big time. As they say, often knowing when to sell is a lot tougher than when to buy.

Someone out there please type G--D E---E and see what happens? I've even checked my previews, but when transmitted comes out GOLDEN. I may be crazy but I'm not insane .................am I???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/japan_econ_5.html
``The Japanese economy seems to be nearing a recovery and is bottoming out,'' Sakakibara said, adding that he believed the effect of various steps the government has taken so far for the economy would likely become evident in April and May.

He also said he believed that both the Japanese economy and the exchange rate were at ``a significant turning point.''

``I believe that Japan is a 'buy' now,'' Sakakibara said. ``That is because it is at the bottom now.''

golden eagle.... golden eagle.....golden eagle... I Swear Ichecked the spelling and lefe the "en '' out.

For historical reasons, Kitco's software turns gold
eagle into golden eagle. In fact, it used to turn gold
eagle into gold beagle, if I remember correctly,
then if you reposted that, it used to turn into
cocker spaniel. Har, Har. Something to do with
a tiff between Kitco's Bart and g..n e..e's vronsky
Gold bulls do benefit from both Kitco and g..n e..e very
much, I feel, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Both sites are very much appreciated here.

I love you very much. Thank you ... thank you .. !!! At this time of the morning , that was scary.

GCM8 now $316.80

What is a Yankee?

The same as a quickie, but a guy can do it alone.



What is the difference between snowmen and snow women?

Snowballs.



What do Tupperware and a walrus have in common?

They both like a tight seal.



If a light sleeper sleeps with a light on,

what does a hard sleeper sleep with?



What is the difference between Olympic swimmers, and

Olympic divers?

Mark Spitz and Greg swallows.



What does Popeye do to keep his favorite tool from

rusting?

Sticks it in Olive Oyl.



What is the new O.J. web site address?
slash slash backslash escape



What do a Christmas tree and priest have in common?

Their balls are just for decoration.



What is the difference between a hormone, and an enzyme?

You can't hear an enzyme.



How many men does it take to screw in a light bulb?

One..Men will screw anything


******************************************************************
Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of this
message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position
or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/markets_eu_1.html

Do I hear an interest rate hike to catch money as it leaves the market? There is going to be some money made by someone. I wish I knew how.

http://www.motherjones.com:80/mother_jones/MA98/mead.html

We are getting 166 to 233 Pentiums for 900 to 1200 Canadian dollars. Knock off 40% with the US dollar. That means if you lived close to the border you could get them for 525 to 1000 bucks ansd get half the tax back if you apply. Some of these prices don't include the monitor but your old one will work. Lets talk deflation.

You bring up a subject worthy of attention. Many of the responses by other Kitcoites point up the broad environmental implications of MOST human activity upon this earth. Mining only SEEMS to be the singular transgressor in these matters, but is really, at best ( or worst ) only a small fraction of the damage we are doing to the earth. I listened to a report not long ago about a remote network of villages in India where wireless internet was being introduced. This because they had no phones or phone lines, and no electrical infrastructure. These people are essentially farmers, but their crops rot in the markets because when one area produces a surplus, those in another area who could use the crops have no way of finding out soon enough that there is surplus for sale. The inefficiencies of the markets there due to lack of communication as to what is bid and offered, in real produce, is tragic. Wireless net will improve this communication gap dramatically. As I learned of this situation, I saw how we in the 'First" and "second" worlds enjoy all of the advantages of infrastructure and technology, while many many brothers and sisters, human beings, families, children, all over the earth, still have none of it. THERE IS NO GOING BACK. The Y2K worry points that up. We can only go forward to see to it that man's industry and enterprise affords everyone some measure of at least the PHYSICAL, MATERIAL prosperity we here in the "first" world take for granted. We cannot deny that to others, and so natural resources become something that MUST be developed for mankind.
Yes - there are sane and better ways to the process. Legislation that protects the health of all humanity is not unreasonable. But EVERY activity of man in THIS AGE, depends in great measure upon the utilization of nature and her products. This is a material world, and age. There is no going back. Only forward with as much sanity as we can muster. Sometimes that isn't enough, true. But we are human, and doing, on balance, the best we can. To impound mining is to condemn humanity in the end to barbarism. Indeed, to remove any ONE important infrastructure element from a society ensconced in a technological organism ( cities, homes, offices, factories, labs ) is to destroy civilized life as we know it.
Imagine ceasing all fuel burning to preserve the air? Civilization without electricity? I think not. Imagine a world without water systems, or sewer treatment. A world without metals? A world without paper? Over time man's ingenuity brings replacements for the material things we depend upon, but they too, in some way, are extracted from nature. Do not worry about buying mining stocks. If you did, you would have to worry about everything you do. Be mindful, be happy, but don't worry so much. Besides, gold and silver mining is nowhere near the size of mining for base metals, and you would be astounded how much gold and silver is "merely" a byproduct of the extraction of others metals. It hurts me to see a tree fall in a storm, or fall victim to a construction necessity. The beauty of nature is precious, and a solace to the civilized and compassionate heart. We are on a path that requires we retain as much beauty and utility from nature as we can, at the same time. It is, like everything that confronts us as humans, a challenge. That is what life on earth is all about. Challenge. Get Real, Get gold.

If 'it' ain't broke---don't fix it

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980423/ROBFront/rbarr.html

sharefin: Thanks for the posts to all of us. This morning I feel a bit anxious being bullish anything. Liquid assests now 50% gold stocks/50% equities. This AM is a good warmup for what it may be like trying to ride the gold bug Tsunami.

S Korea should be stabilizing if the worst is over for them, and Japan should be moving away from the brink. If the Japanese loose their cool and start dumping more dollars, that will not be good. If the hedge funds are going after the Yen, heaven help us.

Any idea how many dollars are in the dollar-yen carry and the dollar-gold carry? All I know is that dollars outside the US are at least 1.5 trillion, but that is probably all foreign investment. I do not have a breakdown. I think that these carries are more of a problem than how many dollars ( treauries ) that the Japanese have. And --- the dollar gold carry is beginning to unravel, with the dollar-yen carry not far behind. I think the destabilizing forces on the US markets will be external -- a run on the US dollar, perhaps?

BullyBeef: The US computer stocks just took off after languishing for 6 months or more. There are several possibilities:

1 ) Earnings are about to recover with the european market rallies,

2 ) "flight to safety from foreign markets has begun, or

3 ) The computer stock recovery is completely without reason.

I wish I know the correct answer for this quiz. Regardless, I do not get any warm fuzzy feelings about what it happening.

http://www.nhl.com/

All: Continued weakness in Asia will prevent AG from raising rates soon, whether he thinks he needs to or not. The dollar certainly cannot get any stronger.

That will be good for the precious metals equities, as we well know. As to the general equities market bull, it seems that we are writing a script that has been written before. We all know where the equities bubble will go, eventually.

I think others are beginning to sense what we sense, and if so, our little precious metals rally will soon be not so little anymore. That does not preclude future direct bearish attacks on gold for the sake of 'reality preservation'. One of the hazards of being a gold bug.

Snowbird - Silver based on a weekly chart looks as if it's in a wave 5 advance which started from the 5.60 area. If this is correct the minimum objective is 7.60 and the Max about 8.75 but could be higher as much as 11.00 before another major correction. This advance should last into July. Go back to some of my Jan and Feb Posts ( 2/23 20:54, 2/19 7:40, 7/6 18:16 ) . The wave count is a little different but the projections are about the same: at that time I was looking for a wave 3 or 5 top at 7.50, correction into April or May to the 5.50 area then an advance into early summer to as high as 11.00
I'm impressed with the strength of the XAU. This is reminiscent of the 1993 advance when the metals lagged behind the XAU Then they suddenly took off. I'm long from 6.24 and almost totally margined up. Unless you're very nimble I wouldn't recommend this approach. As the market moves up I'll add more contracts. If I have a margin problem I'll peel off a few contracts. Risky but one has to press the market to make the big bucks. Spot Gold looks like it should close above the weekly channel line breaking it out of its downtrend.

went above its 200 day moving average. Since then it has remained above it, and yesterday the average itself turned up. The same can be said of

the XAU index, except that it drifted a bit below its 200 average for a

few days in the interim. Yesterday, for the first time in many a moon a

real gold mining company went to a new 52 week high: Battle Mountain Gold!

To all you Gold shorts out there.... HURRY, put your pants on or you will be caught NAKED, EXPOSED AND BROKE!

It might be fun to give a look to the long bond today. 59.75 at 8:22am.

Making anohter run at 6.00+. I was briefly over 6 for about 5 days in early March ( around 2 to 6th ) .

Nice to see kitco start the day in all green.

Go ahead, push the price of gold down a few dollars today-please. Make one more effort to hold gold down-please. June and December contracts, Yes? Yes. Tom

I tink the interesting aspect about the comments out of Japan are not so much the details but that Japan is stepping up to the plate and getting ready to play hard ball in the public relations market.

Name a country that has called the U.S. bubble a BUBBLE. WOOO. The Japanese are getting serious. They have the muscle to hurt the USG. They can sell treasuries and buy gold and NOW it looks like they will be willing and able to announce that they are BUYING GOLD.

As I have mentioned before, the announcements of these actions are as ( possible more ) important than the actual actions. The Japanese are moving to the media wars aspect of this game. Sell US bonds, Buy gold, take delivery, and TELL THE WORLD - this will make your YEN STRONG.

Hey at 8:23 the pm's were all in the green -- really. Not to worrry, they are in an uptrend.

I'm sure you ( Preacher ) have noted this but an interesting situation has occured technically in Gold that gives strength to the bullish side. The last week or so, gold drifted ( consolidated ) downward. Many called for a low of 295ish. This would still have been OK, but it never reached that level. It reached 306ish on the June contract. This downward drifting allowed DAILY indicators to show a sell signal. Correspondingly, the WEEKLY indicators were showing a topping but not a sell. I'm sure your fear as mine was, that the DAILY indicators were truning down from a top and would turn the WEEKLY indicators downward also. This would have probably began a downward move to the 280s-290s as others have called.

However, the DAILY indicators simply went to the middle range. Some such as MACD and MACD Histogram actually bottomed. Stochastics went to the middle range and have hooked up sharply as of yesterday. The daily indicators now indicate another upward surge coming. The important thing is that the WEEKLY indicators never gave a sell and have now shown another surge upward into higher territory. All the moving averages that have been breached have held and have not failed and reversed.

Throughout all of this, the MONTHLY indicators have maintained their surge upward FROM THE VERY BOTTOM. Putting all
of this together, this lends credence to the Elliott wave analysis of Aurophile that we are have now entered a wave 3 of 3 scenario. The last correction was wave 2 of 3, with wave 3 or 3 underway. If this is occurring, then the next week or two could be explosive, as opposed to just a quiet rally upward. If this next move does not carry above the previous high significantly, then the wave 3 of 3 is negated and most probably is part of wave B, with a wave C of a correction to 295 ish area to follow. As i've said before, even a trip to 295 does nothing to the MONTHLY indicators, which show that we have entered a longer term upmove.

Those shorting gold right now will be burned later. There is a reason gold rose as high as $316.80 in overnight trading. This gold market is surely not as before. Disbelieves are shorting right now and chances are good that they will be stopped out later today. Until they realize that it is different this time. they will continue to get burned.

But then again why shouldn't they. It happened to the gold longs for years and years.

The correct answer to your quiz is #3

Please let me know your e-mail address.
myorke@merlin.net.au

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/marketdata.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

any ideas...

I am glad the golden beagle posts have stilled.

It is hard to contemplate the ideas of other people when

SOMEONE IS CONTINUALLY SHOUTING LIKE A K-TEL COMMERCIAL.

At times the only cure for a barking dog is a

comfortable muzzle.

Yeah!!! Bart.

John, I finally got an unzip feature. I had to change computers and ISP, Could you send me another copy of your original study on the GM industry? That way I can apply the unzipper. Many thanx, Charlie

I think the small spike up amd down on the open at comex is just a little healthy scalping from guys who place open orders to buy or sell on the open,some guy gets his open order to buy filled at 316+ and a seller gets filled at 314+~~~~~~~~~I think they have 5 minutes ( not sure ) to fill all on the open orders so if there was a bunch might get going pretty good for a few minutes until the new trading starts,anyway thats what I've noticed GO GOLD!!!!

I meant open orders to buy on sell on the open rather then limit or other types.

I usually post this stuff on Tuesday morning. I had family here and my stocks have been going up on all fronts. Too many positive distractions for a change.

The Toronto Mining Issues Summation Index is now rising quickly. We are entering that +1000 to +2000 range that is so critically needed for confirmation of a major bull. If it can't make it to +2000...look out.

The new lows in Toronto have been under 6 issues steadily. Most days have no new lows. This is healthy and expected at this point.

I keep a trend line on the Toronto gold index that rises at 2% weekly from the last significant low. This usually contains corrections in a strong gold move. It has held since January, and was tested in Feb and March. You can get the quote fron Yahoo. This week the trend is at 6812.

The XAU 1993 pattern is still holding up so well that it gives me the creeps. If it continues, we should continue to rise into early-mid May as we walk up the upper daily Bollinger Band. Then a quick correction down to the lower band is due, followed by a futher upside move to the upper band. I think that you can get charts with Bollinger Bands fron bigcharts.com.

On the S&P front, the summation index turned down three weeks ago, and despite new highs in the S&P, the decline will develop here with a move down for 4 to 6 weeks.The final move coming out of this will determine whether we have more to go or not. I will keep track of this.

Thats all for now.

My email is cdevoto@abts.net sorry

If I was short the metal, I wouldn't care about a few bucks here and there, as long as I was able to buy enough gold equities. Most here recognize leverage of 3 to 5 times.
Gold has made about 15% from the lows.
XAU has made about 50% from the lows.

To: +Giraffe ( 10468 )
From: +Ray Emery
Thursday, Apr 23 1998 9:29AM ET
Reply # of 10470

Check out the "Charticle" in the latest Forbes magazine.

Most interesting point made was that the historic POG over the last two centuries is
$627/oz. POG will have to rise by $300 to return to average.

The upshot of the article is that the price is "unquestionably rather low". ( DUH!! )

Ray

Straddler,
Can you tell me the level of the previous high you mentioned that gold must go over so we'll know this is a 3 of 3?

Lucky

Send me your email again and I'll try to convey my thoughts on quakes. I had to change computers and ISP. This one seems to be working ok. Thanx, Charlie

Trading in Southernera Resources has been halted pending a news announcement. Does anyone have any more info?

Forgot to post email--- cdevoto@abts.net

This morning's action will be typical performance for 1998. To be sure North-American Golds as measured by the XAU will do well this year, however, the giant gains will be make in the South African golds. Witness this morning's action:

Three of South Africa's best: Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY ) , Durban Deep ( DROOY ) and Randgold Exploration ( RANGY ) . All are traded in the US as ADRs - and are indeed enjoying a good day:

HGMCYUp 9.3%

DROOYUp 13.1%

RANGY.Up 2.1%

XAU ... Down -0.4%

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 08:39
StrongMan ( June now $314.80 ) ID#289419:

Those shorting gold right now will be burned later.

( ... )

But then again why shouldn't they. It happened to the gold longs for years and years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That assumes justice in this world...

When RJ put on his gold short postion, he said that gold might even get as high as $315. Gold is currently holding in the $315 area.

Place your bets.

chas -- Will look back and get you e-mail, and post from home. Work computer e-mail not working, and home computer lost all e-mail address after upgrading to Win 95. Hope to resurrect old e-mails form backup tapes when have time. Notice all the quakes +/- one day from the last full moon?

One piece of good news is that the tidal forces are at an 18.7 year high right now -- from the precession of the moons elliptic orbit. We are now on a slow downhill course. Hoever I would guess that we still have months at this high risk level. Haven't had time to correspond with the fellow in Hawaii who claims to be able to predict where and when with more than a random degree of success. Sharefin -- are you there? Did you get anywhere in unraveling the mystery?

From reading Polarbear Rangy appears to be a more of a development & exploration play VS. a pure Gold play like DD & Harmoney.
Harmoney is less than 50% from it's 52 week high wereas the other two have hefty multiples to go to get back there, especially Rangy.
What to do now as amoung them ???

Thanks,

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 00:42

cherokee__A ( @---dec98-gold-calls--------mmm-mmm-mmm---good... ) ID#344308:

Copyright  1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

eb---

the monex man posted he was going to cannes for some convention, and

for any wandering kitcoite to join him IF they could....assume he

is still over there...said he'd be gone for a while. are you

speed-reading with your eyes closed again? he'll be back shortly..hehehe.

--------------------------------------------------

I was referring to RJ not D.A......uh huh. And I usually have to speed read here anymore unfortunately ( time constraints, but I always manage to catch GSC gems....cough cough ) . EYES CLOSED? Naaa.....not I! Cherokee......ya'd better clean out that smoke-mobile....it's gettin clogged ;- ) And put me at the helm for a while......let us take the wild ride through the ether and flux and sort out this chaos thingy........and......oh yeah......we need to stop off at McDonalds for fries and a shake...they are playin that Monopoly game again... hehehe. go gold. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~aim for the lip...bite the lip....kiss the lip........I'll get it right sooner or later....

away...to shower off some flux....whew ( ! )



oh yeah.....friday should be fun for PM's.....we'll call it 'staging day'...eh?

weather ( whether in Cape Breton ) has been gorgeous all week here...now rain.... ( ugh ) .

go abx..... ( !!!!! ) ( $$$$$$ ) ( ! ) .

LAKERS in 5.....they may lose 1 in Portland...... ( maybe ) ( ! )

Our usual bet of $250,000? Or should we bet Mounties this time?? go gold.

away



Nasdaq volumes moving to extreme readings - churning.

1/4 billion shares traded in approx first hour.

Small caps - AMEX showing extreme high turnover


AND gold is being sold - GCM8 @ $314.00

Big Movers Today in Australia

Australian Resources ( ARS ) 0.24 to 0.43 79%
Saint Barbara ( SBM ) 0.14 to 0.22 57%
Herald Resources ( HER ) 0.47 to 0.59 26%

Industry chief fears new crash

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980424/world/world1.html

Refer-- My reply to your question was buried at the most obscure time slot on Kitco, 23:59 last night. Just checking to see if ya caught it. Mike--Just read your "Anecdotal Indicators" at the "Gold-you-know-what". Comment- Go Dow 10,000 and beyond! I'm taking up photography!

Evidently lost my bookmark on quake site when changing computers. If you can throw one out, I'd be obliged. Charlie

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980422/yamana_res_1.html

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
For global earthquakes map.

Imagine, some accounting to taxpayers on how the IMF uses their money. http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/novak21.htm Off to work. Go Gold!

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980424/business/business2.html

Check out the Australia GOLD price and its time trend....

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

Boom times about to start again in Kalgoorlie !?

Nearly ALL text books on investment principles preach that equal diversitfiaction is the BEST & SAFEST of all worlds. This holds true if one is 33 or 3 times 33.

Not long ago I enjoyed a performance of the Regimental Band of the Scots Guards with the Pipes and Drums of the Black Watch. What could be finer?

Which website is the most comprehensive and recently updated about Y2K issues please ?

-- IBM Software Group's Year2000: Traversing the century
http://www.software.ibm.com/year2000/

- Peter de Jager's Year 2000 Information Center
http://www.year2000.com/

- Year2000 Information Centre ( With Vendor Updates )
http://www.year2000.com/cgi-bin/clock.cgi

- Year2000 Resource Book., So Many Issues so little time...
http://www.mstnet.com/YEAR2000/YR2000.htm

- Y2K Hardware and Software Vendor Compliance Survey's
http://www.wa.gov/dis/2000/6_survey.htm

- Implications of the Year 2000 on Microsoft products
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/desk/office/2000.htm #Contents

- Texas Tech Univ - Y2K Site
http://www.ttuhsc.edu/pages/year2000/ttuy2k.htm

- Year 2000 Patch for P.C.'s ( Download Free Year2000.exe at this site )
http://rampages.onramp.net/~gtbecker/

- US Army Year2000 Issues Pages
http://tecnet1.jcte.jcs.mil:8000/htdocs/teinfo/y2000.html target=

- USA Federal Governaments Year2000 Information Directory
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/library/yr2000/y201toc1.htm target=

- Information Technology Association of America's - Year 2000 Buyer's Guide
http://www.itaa.org/yr2000bg.htm target=

- Mac and the Y2K Issues
http://devworld.apple.com/dev/technotes.shtml

- GTE Y2K Site
http://www.gte.com/Evolutions/Episode3/Scope/scope.html target=

- Datamation - Special Report on Year2000
http://www.datamation.com/PlugIn/issues/1996/jan1/FEATURES.html

he pressed gold, one more time, the message was delivered by a child, giving, forever, giving... weary, a word, for the tired, never, always giving, playing flag football with Mommy-Tshe wins by being cutefabulous pick and roll move

http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html

Plenty of new articles posted here daily.

I finally got the COT back thru '96. One full disk. If I know what I'm doing, I will run it vs my winzip and print it out. Then it should be analysable. Will keep you informed. Charlie

Last 5860.5 Change -70.6

All Time High 6150.5 14 Apr 1998

boy that was fast. I am familiar with the links--but how do you copy so fast to the comment-board? I had problems and typed in the hard way.
( this question from an old boy trying to learn new things )
Thank you!
Servhard

I take it that you can't HEAR too well now-a-days ?

Q. What's one thing you never hear people say?
A. Oh, that's the bagpipe player's Porsche.

 Q: What's the difference between a Scotsman and a Rolling Stone?
A: A Rolling Stone says "hey you, get off of my cloud!", while a
Scotsman says "Hey McLeod, get off of my ewe!"

 Q. How do you get two bagpipes to play a perfect unison?
A. Shoot one.

 Q. What's the definition of a minor second?
A. Two bagpipes playing in unison.

 Q. What's the difference between a bagpipe and an onion?
A. No one cries when you chop up an bagpipe.

 Q. What's the difference between a bagpipe and a trampoline?
A. You take off your shoes when you jump on a trampoline.

 Q. Why did the chicken cross the road?
A. To get away from the bagpipe recital.

 Q. Why do bagpipers leave their cases on their dashboards?
A. So they can park in handicapped zones.

 Q. How can you tell a bagpiper with perfect pitch?
A. He can throw a set into the middle of a pond and not hit any of the
ducks.

 Q. How is playing a bagpipe like throwing a javelin blindfolded?
A. You don't have to be very good to get people's attention.

 Q. What's the difference between the Great Highland and Northumbrian
bagpipes?
A. The GHB burns longer [but the Northumbrian burns hotter]

 Q. What do you call bagpiper with half a brain?
A. Gifted.

 Q. What's the difference between a lawnmower and a bagpipe?
A. You can tune the lawnmower, and the owner's neighbors are upset if
you borrow the lawnmower and don't return it.

 Q. How many bagpipers does it take to change a light bulb?
A. Five, one to handle the bulb and the other four to contemplate how
Bill Livingston would have done it.

 Q. How many bagpipers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
A. 5-one to do it, and four to criticise his fingering style.

 Q. If you were lost in the woods, who would you trust for directions,
an in-tune bagpipe player, an out of tune bagpipe player, or Santa
Claus?
A. The out of tune bagpipe player. The other two indicate you have been
hallucinating.

 Q. How do you make a chain saw sound like a bagpipe?
A. Add vibrato.

 Q. How many bagpipers does it take to change a light bulb?
A. Five. One to handle the bulb, the other four to tell him how much
better they could have done it.

 Q. What's the definition of a gentleman?
A. Someone who knows how to play the bagpipe and doesn't.

 Q. What's the difference between a dead snake in the road and a dead
bagpiper in the road?
A. Skid marks in front of the snake.

 Q. What's the difference between a dead bagpiper in the road and a
dead country singer in the road?
A. The country singer may have been on the way to a recording session.

 Q. What's the range of a bagpipe?
A. Twenty yards if you have a good arm.

 Q. What do you call someone who hangs around with musicians?
A. A bagpiper.

 Q. What did the bagpiper get on his I.Q. test?
A. Drool.

 Q. What's the definition of a quarter tone?
A. A bagpiper tuning his drones.

 Q. Why are bagpipers fingers like lightning?
A. They rarely strike the same spot twice.

 Q. How can you tell if a bagpipe is out of tune?
A. Someone is blowing into it.

 Q. Why is a bagpipe like a Scud missile?
A. Both are offensive and inaccurate.

 Q. What do bagpipers use for birth control?
A. Their personalities.

 Q. How do you know if a bagpipe band is at your front door?
A. No one knows when to come in.

 Q. Why did the bagpiper get mad at the drummer?
A. He moved a drone and wouldn't tell him which one.

 Q. If you took all the bagpipers in the world and laid them end to
end-- it would be a good idea.

 Q. What do you call ten bagpipes at the bottom of the ocean?
A. A start.

 Q. If you drop a bagpipe and a watermelon off a tall building, which
will hit the ground first?
A. Who cares?

 Q. Why do bagpipers walk when they play?
A. To get away from the sound.

 Q. How late does the bagpipe band play?
A.Oh, about a half beat behind the drummer.

 Q. Why do bagpipers always walk when they play?
A. Moving targets are harder to hit.

 Q. What does a bagpiper wear under his kilt?
A. Shoes and socks.

 Q. Why do they call it a "kilt"?
A. Because a lot of people got kilt when they called it a skirt.

 BAND STRUCTURE OF THE ARGYLL & SUTHERLAND HIGHLANDERS

Drum Major:
Leaps tall buildings in a single bound
Faster than a speeding bullet
More powerful than a locomotive
Walks on Water
Talks to God

Pipers:
Leaps small buildings with a run-up
Is a crack shot
Pulls railway carriages
Fords rivers
Listens to god

Side Drummers:
Vaults over fences
Is allowed his own sidearm
Can read a railway timetable
Knows how to put on fishing gollashes
Believes in God

Tenor Drummers:
Can open and walk through a door
Knows which is the dangerous end of a gun
Has his own train set
Wears Wellington boots
Talks to himself

Bass Drummers:
Trips over matchsticks
Is NEVER allowed near firearms
Says "Look at CHOO-CHOO"
Plays in puddles
Nobody listens to him

and finally.

THE PIPE MAJOR:
Lifts tall buildings and walks underneath them
Catches bullets in his teeth and chews them
Kicks locomotives off their tracks
Drinks entire oceans
He IS GOD!!!!

 Q. What's the definition of "optimism"
A. A bagpiper with a beeper.

 Q. What's the difference between a bagpiper and a frog?
A. The frog might be getting a gig.

Och aye the nooooooooooooooooooo...............

I agree 100% with what you say about diversification! That's why over the past year I have been buying some Maple Leafs, some Kruggerands, some Nuggets, and some Philharmonics ( they sound nicest when clinked together ) . Just whenever I ask my dealer for Gold-you-know-whats, my order gets fouled up ( ;- )

Buy a set of bagpipes .....

Great for neighbours that you don't like ......

G'Nite.

http://millennia-bcs.com/Hlthsmry.htm

Looks like Cyclist was correct when he said yesterday that gold would need to take a breather for a few days before assaulting $320. And for every day gold rests /corrects half a dozen bears will come of hypernation asserting $295 is just around the corener. Heed them at your peril.

Thank you

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 11:25
chas ( A.Goose re COT ) ID#342315:

Glad to here it. I look forward to hearing what you find out.

You got to love the action today. I can guess imagine the goings on:

"I will give you 10 march 99 palladiums for one ounce of palladium delivered NOW!!!" This paper driven commodities market we have nowadays has got to be a real killer when people start needing product NOW.

I see a lot of trouble soming up not just for the pm shorts but also for paper players in all the commodities markets... wheat, corn , peaches, .... We can expect some "very interesting times" in the near future.


IMHO

Thanx. It looks like the ring is heating up. Hope you have quake insurance. My insurance agent told me he couldn't cover, but if there was one be damn sure the place burned. I notice one in Va. roughly lined up with the Brevard. Brevard is the biggest fault line in this hem. I live within 8 miles of it. It is 1/2 mile wide here. Cheers with Forsyers ( spelling )

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, friend, Stevie Wonder Dreams songs that keep your best interests happy...cut 6 on Conversation Peace, were one as me in Detroit on that day, weeping while I type, senseless, senseless,

Givin' the Black Watch a blackeye... saved for future use on my piper friend! STILL laughing...

It is something that I believe that we
all agree with, but check it out......

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_fn7240.html


It is time now for Small Caps, Cyclicals, and
DEEP CYCLICALS. GO GOLD/SILVER

I would take a chance on your trade if I could get the Pd out soon enough. Best I've found is only 190ppb . Whats the strike on your paper.

Thanks Charles, by the way Queen Victoria is dead.

FWIW Looks like XAU wants to fill the gap at 89.5 before it
resumes the uptrend

BUY GOLD AND LOTS OF IT

The shorts seem to be having considerable trouble knocking down the price of gold. Which way gold? Up or down? Methinks up. Feeble resistance at best. Shorts will have to risk a bunch more money to hold gold down. Are they prepared to do so? Or, do they fold and wait for another day? I think fold. Tom

This may work well with the majors, but not with low priced stocks.

HARMONY is a typical example. Look at its chart ( HGMCY ) .

The leveraged stocks DROOY, ECO etc. can multiply five times in a good rally.

In a bull market stop losses are like adding oil to a fire. Many use them to regret using them after they were stopped.

No, I maintain my position, come hell or high water, I am not going to sell unless the sold gold stock is replaced with another gold stock. I believe that gold has to at least triple for it to catch up with the last 20 years of inflation. On this premise, minor gold stocks have to tenfold.

View gold stocks as my retirement account - not to be traded for a quick profit especially when no other investments offer a reasonable alternative.

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Techcorner/DE/de9816.htm
Understanding why testing is expected to consume 50%+ of Y2K project efforts?

The DOW is holding out against all odds, inspite of recent slide equities everywhere. I believe that gushers of money is coming in from abroad as they are seeing 36% growth in Dow stocks ( in less than 6 months ) . Maybe the party may end in next 2 weeks or so. The US Bond interest rates are going up slowly. The Clinton Admin/Fed is basing benign inflation on CPI figures, while there is an 'asset price inflation'. Look at commercial property and big ticket items. Prices of consumer goods are low thanks to cheap energy and cheaper imports from Asia due to lower production costs inculcated out of currency crises through Soros/IMF activities.

Europe has high unemployment and Asian tiger's are in bad shape, It is unlikely that US markets have the power to repeal the law of gravity, Isnt it a Global economy with cross border inter dependencies ?

Go Gold Go.........

Thanks for the bagpipe jokes. I forwarded them on to my Dad, although they hit pretty close to home. I think they are great, b/c I had to live with the misery. I asked my Dad if I could have a set of his pipes- to ensure that they'd never be played again!

George's vision was true, The Coward Erect makes plans...shaking hands with the murderer in China, the good fight arrives, Virginians, Kentuckians, and on that day, the killing is brutal, We The People, win...

Mike Sheller witnesses REAL MEN THAT SHOULDER A 50 Caliber, they do not wince, they are not proud of the act, murder is so very different than killing

ECO up 12% so far, anybody know why?

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980423/vengold_in_1.html

Don't know why they left out this one.

http://www.yourdon.com/index.htm

"hypernation" - is that where all the paper money becomes worthless?
Or perhaps a papo-neurologically overstimulated Republic?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/0422bug.htm
Like comets hurtling toward each other, the world's year 2000 problem and Europe's new ``euro'' currency are on a collision course that could disrupt the world economy, computer experts said Tuesday.

Easy big fella! I ain't seen NOBODY shoulder a .50, except maybe some guy I once seen in a film shoot a .600 Nirto Express at a elephant! Man that was ugly. Flesh and bone flying, purple bruises bubbling, ugh. I mean that guy's shoulder I'm talkin' about.

Clone, tolerant1 posted the following a while back. It should solve your problems. You can have your silver and hug a tree too. Be careful and don't step in the pile of left over fertilizer though. [;-}

Date: Wed Apr 15 1998 13:02
tolerant1 ( all that glitter is not gold, go and check out )

ITRO on NASDAQ - right now a teeny, tiny penny stock...in the
future it will be a monster. When people finally figure out what these folks are up to in silver this stock will explode.

Tree huggers love them and so will silverbugs...

and go easy on the whipped cream

I miss his insight/comments

ANOTHER has left us for now, probably due to posters like LGB, who has himself disappeared.....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4345775.htm
Banks unprepared for millennium bug

The survey of banks, prepared by the London-based Financial Times newspaper group, shows that 250 of the 1000 top banks worldwide will not be fully millennium bug compliant by December 1998.

The cut-off at the end of this year is an internationally accepted deadline that allows a full year for testing of information technology and other computer-related systems.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980423/inform/inform4.html
Y2K to spark recession

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER18.html
He was here last Sunday.
I guess he has to work weeks.

BGO has pre-sold 8 million shares at 3.75C for total of $8 Million CAD.
IMO, ordinary investors would not take this much stock in one shot, so the mutual funds must be taking this down.
It seems that the institutions are now hungry of Gold shares and this may be confirming the Gold bottom.

Thanks for the URL....... BIG TIME HOT URL I THINK

The previous high before this latest 7-8 day consolidation, was 317 June contract basis. Maybe some of the more schooled Elliott wavers can give a better explanation, but Elliott allows for us to now go to 317 or a little above and still be a wave B upward. If we get to lets say 320 and then fail and go downward sharply, then it's a wave B. If we go to 320 and continue to climb above 320 to 330, and not go down past 317, this is a confirmed wave 3. This means that after some consolidation when wave 3 gets to its high, another surge for wave 5 should occur, which should be the 340 range, depending on how high the wave 3 actually goes.

Remember though that this all has to be confirmed first by not failing and getting way above 317.

Practice COPY and PASTE with your word processor.

1 ) Select text. Use your mouse to select ( highlight ) whatever text you want to move. Might be able to use shift & arrow keys for this.

2 ) Copy text. Right click. Click [copy].

or from drop down edit menu click [copy]

or use [ctrl c]

3 ) Move your cursor to desired spot.

4 ) Paste text. Right click. Click paste.

or from drop down edit menu click paste.

or use [ctrl v]

5 ) You can copy a whole document with [select all]

Cash production costs for the quarter down to $156 per oz.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980423/battle_mou_1.html

Bema Gold to issue C$30 mln in shares

TORONTO, April 23 ( Reuters ) - Bema Gold Corp. said on Thursday it planned to issue eight
million common shares valued at C$30 million.
In a statement, Bema said the underwriting syndicate is led by RBC-Dominion Securities Inc.
RBC and other members of the syndicate will resell the stock at C$3.75 per common share.
The underwriters have the option to buy two million more shares. If so and done in full,
Bema's share issue would be valued at C$37.5 million. Closing was expected on or about May
14, 1998. Proceeds would be used for exploration and development in Latin America.
Assuming the full amount of the offering is taken up, Bema would then have cash reserves of
about C$50 million.

Jeremy
The only thing wrong with ANOTHER's comments are that we have to wait patiently for them to unfold over the years

bbl

Just tuned into CNBC to get a "live" GCM8 number ( $315.30 ) and caught a stock broker market sentiment survey. Bulls @ 56% with Bears @ 21%. Would seem to indicate there is very little money left on the sidelines. Pop! ( and probably pretty soon ) goes the bubble. Go gold. Added more contracts again this morning. Time to do the pyramid thing. When she hits $450 . . . I'm golden.

REF: Myrmidon ( @ GoldBug23 re: Selling half when stocks double )

I fully subscribe to this ( Myrmidon ) profitable strategy. Moreover, the "Dipster" technique will also enhance greater long-term returns.

While you are cutting it a bit fine ( at 317 ) , I would say that you are right on. You are looking at a previous peak, but it would also be a breakout from the current gently rising upchannel gold is travelling in. That will take it swiftly to 330 as you point out. Verification would come at around 319, and I don't think 320 will interfere, but rather be a potential gap area or certainly a nice $4 or $5 day. Resistance comes in at 330, and I agree there would be some decent consolidation at that level. A failure to penetrate 319 will take gold down to 296 to test upchannel support. A turning away from 317-319 after a few days of dull, narrowing sideways action would be a signal for the bears to short. A breakout above 319 to 330 will steepen the ascent, and indicate perhaps a bottom structure is being left behind and a kickoff of the new bull underway.

I like your philosophy; but I think the reason is because I WANT to believe what you say is true. In reality I think it is a bit optimistic. But even there, I may be biased by the long devastating bear mkt. in gold. I may have grown overly pessimistic in my outlook. In all the posts on this forum, there are many, many points of view ( opinions, for that is what they really are ) and it becomes difficult ( for me, at least ) to keep a proper perspective and maintain balance in my own analysis.

I am somewhat amused by the furor that results from a rise of only $3 or $4 or $5 in the POG. But I find myself in sympathy with the rest of Kitco when this happens and it"s hard for me not to say "Go, baby, go!" when gold or silver show signs of life ( on the upside ) . It sure beats watching TV! Let's hope there are some $20 or $30 days ahead for the POG and some $.30, $.40 & $.50 days for silver!

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-300es.html

When you're done, bookmark their homepage. It will help keep your brain
cells pumping when Kitco is slow.

"Patience is GOLDEN"



G o G o l d

LIHRY is up 3 5/8. Meanwhile, SA stocks continue to climb--

WDEPY is up 1 1/4. XAU is bouncing back up already. Go Gold!

OOPS! Left Harmony out...it's already at 6.

( The horribibble wet blanket arrives )

Be real careful with your exposure on that pyramid thingy. I remember one fellow, neighbor of a friend of mine, living in San Diego. This guy was astonishing, the envy of the neighborhood, pyramiding coffee futures in 75 - 76. The generals and CEO's, etc. around him were simply green, until the market turned in early '77 and wiped him out - and right out of the neighborhood.

Yesterday, about this time, Vronsky made a nice analytical observation about anyone looking for real equity value having to consider gold stocks, and RSA gold in particular.

jest cuse you aint plied with the big dogs yet...NOW, you know the rest...Hmmmmmmmm,.Hmmmmm.the scrabble board awaits the furtive attentive soliloquy that is the touch of your better halfforewarned you are that evening at the dinner table, Me Mum is vicious and plenial..

CORRECTION - All Gold Index closed at 1070

Many posters are afraid to post their real sentiments on PM prices,

first,
for fear that they may be proven wrong sometime later, hence the build-in conservativism

second,
a full blast attack to justify their 4 digit forecasted price of
gold

third,
it is much easier to gain recognition when you forecast prices plus or minus $15 dollars from current gold spot. The chances are that one will be 50% correct, these swings sooner or later happen, then he becomes the "Kitco analyst".

Most posters with the exception of few thirst for recognition. The more times they see their handle posted, the greater kick they get. Others like to talk to themselves. Some like to forecast a 15 point move with some obscure hedging words. And of course you have a bunch of strokers complementing you with words such as "good post", "right on", "excellent post", "I liked your post", etc.

If you are unorthodox in your views, then they run you out of Kitco. And we have lost many good posters on account of this.

G'Day Haggis; how are you ?

Signs of the times ? In my mail this morning a newsletter from Prudent Bear Fund referring to the "Pyramid Scheme" Market. One of the main points in the article is the "cyclicality " of corporate earnings and how earnings and P/E ratios are stretched.

just has to get out of my nasdaq page where I have been getting slaughtered - techies are getting hammered - nice to see gold holding its own - I think tthat I should'nt have taken that money that I'm losing today out of gold - stillhave 60% in gold - I'll survive - GO GOLD

I do appreciate your help a lot. I am working with MS-Works and will move now to MS-Word and practice and learn. English is not my first language, so my posting is slow with one finger and off and on looking for the right words and than check the spelling the hard way.
The struggle is worth it. This is such a wonderfull and challenging site, that not participating would be a sin. The range of subjects of his forum
is as wide and broad as the Universe. ( By the way-I do buy and trade in Gold-stocks, any stock, commodities and own some real Gold!

Thank you, Sam!

Servhard

Time will tell. Today's intraday chart is really up and down ( a lot of volatility ) . It's creating a big intraday base.

Good post.... um. What you have said probably applies to any human group interaction. But as interest in gold increases with the coming gold bull, Kitco will gain some good posters to make up for those that are lost, revolving-door fashion. Those that are willing to stick their necks above the parapet must be prepared for attempts to have them chopped off.

Bitter facts, but true, indeed. I guess I am a stroker. But only when it fits.

Myrmidon ( @ Argent - some bitter facts )

I think there are about 6-8 posters to read here without fail--lots more for the entertainment. Being correct in a prediction--particularly a decline--earns anyone the expectation of abuse here. But so what? In the end you make your own call and act or not.

I called for a drop to the 1996 "estimated" cost of production with the view that gold was being treated as a commodity and that it would drop at least that low and probably $25 more in an "overshoot". Looks like no over hoot and I have now reinvested all the cash from my sale at $385. Lots of abuse in the meqan time but so what-- its free. I have learned about a lot of mines at Kitco ( my investment ) and have a portfolio that is in gear now and will be kicking in until about $360 or so. Lots to learn here but If we could have adopted the system that allowed everyone to "block" out the posters we Know we don't want to read--my o my what a place Kitco would be for all of us.

to Myrmidon
From ita humble low of less than 10 rands
only about 4 months ago .. it has now reached
30 rands ... a multiple of Not 1.5 .. Not 2..
Not 2.5 ... BUT .... THREE TIMES IN 4 months
I love it .. I love it ..

ECO now up 14% on the day. Whats up????

...and then there are those of us who are just appreciative to hear the thoughts of others... whether or not we agree...or disagree.

I heard a rumor that Ted put out a buy.

You're welcome. Sorry I misspelled your handle. If you aren't using "drag and drop" editing yet, check it out in MS Word Help.

Good luck!

sharefin: We don't have any options expiring today, do we? The market turmoild worries me -- I think we should be watching very carefully, especially if gold/gold stocks take off. May be a sign of trouble ahead for all.

The Korea situation looks unresolved. Thought the IMF succeeded on that one. Storm clouds gathering again?

Haggis, great stuff about bagpipes, but I must be a glutton for punishment I like the sound of them.

Mike only guy I ever saw shoulder a 50 Cal was Audie Murphy in the Movie To Hell and Back and you know that was bogus, Audie never said he did that in his bok or claimed to have done it, it is impossible EH

Sorry off subject. GO GOLD BIDNESS!!!!!!!!!!! We should all relax now buy it while it is still cheap and enjoy the ride up!!!

Your decision to reenter HARMONY yesterday was a wise one.
Good call John, I did not follow your footsteps and regret it.

I have been wrong in two of my trades so far. Sold HARMONY too
early at $4 7/16 and SWC at $24 3/4.

From our results gentlemen, are you sure you want to engage
in short term trading?

By the way, the proceeds from my HARMONY and SWC trades went
into other golds but they have not matched HARMONY'S performance yet.

John, I am holding all my other 6 SA stocks. My retirement
security, defense, and pocket money.

Sorry meant BOOK not bok to be confused with Springbok !! Dont want to confuse out SA friends.

FWIW the XAU is coiling to make a run up at the last trading
hour.

we do not put any emphasis on how close MARS got to VENUS
or how many bright spots the SUN has.

About time to express my views again on this subject
of ASTROLOGY PROMOTION in such a forum.

Anyone who believes in this kind of trash better see a shrink!

JTF: Your posts confuse me. You own gold stocks and want them to go up, but you worry about disaster if they do. One of these days you're going to have to stop sitting on the fence.

Myr be nice, last person to trash Mike was soundly trounced, justifialbly so!

All, Just read on Drudge report David Hale in hospital with chest pain, hope they keep gummint doctors away from him.

Bart GO GOLD Bidness

sweat ( rube ) ID#23782:
I heard a rumor that Ted put out a buy.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That would be buoy as in 'you been a-missin' oh-buoy

A comparison of SA gold stocks to NA stocks:

JSE All Gold index +60.1%

XAU +51.8%

The SA index is 16% ahead of the XAU

Mike Sheller: I don't always have time to spell check my posts. Thanks for catching that error!

As the gold bull continues to gather steam beware of extreme bears ( EBs ) who will continue to wage a psychological war against AU to the bitter end.

If Mike makes his investments decisions on Venus, it is up to him.
His disciples are many in this forum although I think they belong to his forum "The Astrological Investor".

It so happens that some of us make research, listen to researchers, and base our investment decisions on facts. On the contrary, some like to base their investment decisions on stars. All is fine as long as we do not propagandize ASTROLOGY on this group.

Myrmidion: I do not believe in astrology but still consider Mike Sheller one of the most valuable contributors to this forum. Whatever the method, he has made many excellent calls.

Myr, lighten up already! I am not much on astrology either but I won't knok a person who studies it. I make my own decisions to based on what I read on the Kitco forums and comparing many opinions. Mike has made many good calls lately from whatever method. ;-@

Today's quote ( abstract ) from the TheStreet.com

"Indeed, one options specialist suggested that sentiment might be spreading. The smart money was starting to move out of some stock sectors, like utilities, and into more secure commodities, like gold, he offered. "You have the utilities index ticking down, and gold ticking up," he said. "I think that shows some fear of the stock market, and you
don't usually see that in a bull market."

If Mike Sheller has made "many good calls" BASED ON ASTROLOGY
then WHY YOU DO NOT BECOME AN ASTROLOGY BELIEVER ????

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out their past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will probably see each of the following FOUR securities again reach their March 1997 highs.
The expected per cent appreciation of these securities follow. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/R/RANGY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/D/DROOY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/F/FSAGX.html

XAU will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: Only 21%

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

Don't just DO Something, SIT THERE!

It's my impression that Mike Sheller does a reasonably astute technical analysis as do several others. Then he sprinkles in some stardust and moonbeams because that is what makes him smile. What is wrong with that. It's not much different from others who do T.A. and then slather on global economic overtones. The result is the same. Some speculations are right, some are wrong, but in both cases the analysts are enjoying their lives.

Myyrmidion: Mike combines astrology with TA. My take is that excellent TA and common sense -- not the stars -- are the factors behind his success.

... and because Mike Sheller is involved with ASTROLOGY,
this does not mean that we who do not approve to ASTROLOGY
will allow him or his disciples to make KITCO an ASTROLOGICAL forum.

Enough said... it is all in the Kitco netiquette

Beginning to look like Farfel may be right about a market meltdown in the near future.

This was my decision about Mike and I said so six months ago.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/gnet.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Hey, this is FUN. Cyclist, hope the XAU follows through. Anyone follow Goldcorp ( G.A, TSE? ) . Some BIG blocks going through this afternoon, one of 664,500... Good sign, I hope. Glad yer Yankees are gone, Swan's Islander...

There has been considerable discussion on the SI gold thread re: the impact of a possible Fed tightening on POG. Under the 1980-1997 gold paradigm a few Fed rate hikes could indeed turn a golden bull into a golden bear.

But if the basic paradigm is changing because gold now is so absurdly cheap relative to financial assets -- nothing short of very aggressive Fed tightening would suffice. And really aggressive Fed tightening almost certainly is not in the cards.

Conversation Peace...it is all there, everything...MY LOVE IS WITH YOU... WHEREVER YOU ARE...MY LOVE IS WITH YOU...And I WILL be THERE...wherever you are...

for ever free, for ever quite literally, I am the exclamation in the point...

And now GOD puts his hand on my shoulder and says, I done good when I created you.

Big hands, more large than hungerbig guyI am but a happy servant

tomorrows word...preview...............

Where exactly is the SI gold thread?

In reference to interst rates:
So long as they play the paper interest confidence game basing currency strenght ( trader profits ) on interest rates which in effect creates economic conditions to change from country to country, gold will find it tough to attain its true value.
It's a wonder with all the past currency crisis, that the anti-gold establishments are still holding the ball.
So far the falsehood of paper shuffling has reigned supreme.

Farfel - My compliments..very good call on NASDAQ dip...about 150 Dow Points..the Dow will be next.

Looks like the XAU will close on the high of the day

so long. Is this the end of the tunnel or is it another train?

Are you Murrstein in disguise or what? We who respect Mike are getting tired of your not letting go of this, if it makes him feel better leave it alon for G-ds sake, I suppose you will get onto me now,but I havn't been intimidated by anyone yet so dont try.

Are you Murrstein in disguise or what? We who respect Mike are getting tired of your not letting go of this, if it makes him feel better leave it alone for G-ds sake, I suppose you will get onto me now,but I havn't been intimidated by anyone yet so dont try.

Are we happy fellows are what? Rock On SA's! Thanks to you both.

Myrmidon @ your 1318
"Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition from mediocore minds" Albert Einstein.

J. Disney
look at that HGMCY go. After waiting and watching I finally ended up with HGMCY @ 4 3/8. Mighty happy I did. Thank you Sir!

Your drinks are on me at the first annual Kitco posters party next year!

There are many people in Asia that would disagree with you. They are very heavily into astrology over there you know. I do not see what you are calling 'propogandizing' which is a campaign to fill a media space with messages that are intended to move people into an emotional response ( whether positive or negative ) to do a particular thing ( such as by the latest book, stock, candidate, etc ) .

When I have seen Mike post including astrological indications there has been so little attempt to dominate Kitco or move people via emoionalism that it seems to me you're charging him with to much. IMO he is expressing his opinions. There are others here who have sympathies with his use of astrology. They chime in. A pretty typical way of doing business at Kitco regardless of the topic or opinion.

I feel astrology is rebellion against God. I can't have anything to do with it at all. You may feel that it is simply bunk. It seems important to me that we do not attack people if we have problems with what they hold to be true. I'm sure that no person is convinced, by being attacked, that their beliefs are in error.

As far as TA or FA there are very many different schools of thought and personalities involved and often rivalries among these as well. So you prefering this over astrology isn't saying much to me. One man's fact is another man's noise. We are being treated to a barrage of commentary now that 'fundimentals' don't matter, just momentum, etc. Well, it seems we shall see :-o

-------

At one time in the past few weeks you kind of laid into me about not having compassion for children, etc re: Y2K and societal disintegration. You complained about my 'cool intellectual' writtings in a way which implied that I had no heart or soul. Friend, I hope you can understand that I'm not that way. I try to clearly present information and orderly thought here since these things can be most widely considered without generating clashes or degenerating into interpersonal wars.

I do care about those who will be hurt whether they are children, adults or the elders. It is the children who will suffer the most. I think about this daily. My heart is often crushed by the enmornity of the difficulties we will be facing. One of the reasons I am thoroughly researching and communicating Y2K concerns here and in my community is because we must all take up our responsibilities to prepare for ourselves and others.

I have exposed myself to ridicule and embarrasement for having suggested that tomorrrow may not be a brighter day. This is not because I love being abused but because I care.

Cut the sweet-talkin' male to male lovey-dovin' with MS will ya'? Somebody might think you a little bit..........well you know!

I am Myrmidon and noone else.

I respect all posters as long as they follow Kitco's netiquette.

I am not here to intimidate or provoke anyone.

I respect technical analysis or any analysis which is confined to the planet we live in.

I dissaprove to Extra Terrestial ( ET ) analysis on investments, and so do many other posters. My voice is one of many.

Before this thing with ASTROLOGY gets out of hand I raise my concern. Otherwise Kitco will open the door to MEDIUMS, PALM READERS, SORCERERS,
or ALIENS from MARS advising the posters and lurkers of this forum.

It is my belief that Kitco netiquette has been violated. Bart has the last word.

FWIW XAU is building a classic pennant that should be
complete the third to the fourth hour.
It should be an interesting ride Good day and happy trading.

What if Mike Sheller had never mentioned astrology but chalked up his best calls to technical pickle analysis, wouldn't everyone then be trying to pry the real secret of success out of him?

Go Mikey!

You may want to look at APH's 07:43 for his projections on silver,"to top at 7.50, correction into April or May to 5.50 and then advance into early summer to as high as 11.00." He has also added words of caution as to the necessity to be a nimble trader just in case.

Propagandizing is in reference to ASTROLOGY.

Mix good investment results with doses of ASTROLOGY
and you have many following the stars.
An old trick that works well.

But since the majority approves to ASTROLOGICAL forecasts,
and I see no support against it,

I apologize to the forum for the used bandwidth,

I will not make any more comments on ASTROLOGY.

Silicon Investor here: http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/StockTalk-17

Go to the Gold Price Monitor discussion or the Gold XAU or pick your mining stock

It is not that you should quiet yourself regarding disagreements with astrology as valid. It is the way you handle this in your posts. Certainly do NOT silence yourself but also recognize that there is only so much you can do constructively here. I do not feel that your characterization of many approving of it here, nor the idea that people are lead where they do not want to go. IG - somebody talking about it isn't going to turn everyone into astrologers, or what have you. Do you feel that people in general are so easily led astray; or is it the tendency to stray which leads us?

A tough world to live in, this one.

The POLARBEAR GOLD STOCK INDEX was UP 8.2% today
versus the XAU iking out a miserly 0.3% rise.

Don't you dare lighten up, Soldier! No matter how innocent it may
sound, astrology, pyshic readings, palm reading, etc. are all
forms of the occult which are expressly forbidden by Christian
doctrine ( Christianity ) . I know this will alieniate some but
better to get the word out to the few who will listen than to
sit in silence while non-Christian practices are tolerated.
Just as we are concerned and work for emergency preparedness,
so should we work to prepare our souls for eternal life.

That is all.

I'm just sitting here. I already did something:
Franklin Gold I Up 27%
Hgmcy Up 85%
Drooy Up 51%
Rangy Up 31%
Sgoly Up 32%
Thanks, in part, to you, John D. and Brian H. Tom

General-- then there's those who toss in your favorite with
the rest of the bunko charlatanism.

keep postin you havent offended anyone eh? all: if ya dont want astrological forecasts skip over em when your reading... jus mho

Hypothetical Investments:

$100,000 in PGSI made $8,200 today, while

$100,000 in XAU made only 3 C-notes ( for you younger guys that
means $300 ) ... Hardly nuff for a good supper for you and your favorite girlfriend, and a cheap bottle of wine. ( :- ) )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/bema_gold__1.html

Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.13

Don't people understand that the diverse opinions on here are what makes this site so great? Astrology is just simply that forces of the universe work on a cosmic level as well as micorcosmic. As above, so below. If people don't understand that all of the universe is interconnected then be careful if you travel, you just might fall off the edge of the earth. There are only three evils in this world, Nationalism, Racism, and Religious Fundamentalism. Which are all subdivisions of EGO. Mike Sheller is one of the most decent, compassionate, intelligent and humorous posters here on this site! Mike, I want to thank you in this post for all your wonderful contributions to this site. This site would not be the same without you. Get a grip people.

Myr, the mkt is a random walk. Lots of academics will tell you that. Therefore, your "fact" based system for making trading decisions can be no better or worse than any other system. To be consistent and to be fair, shouldn't we also stop promoting TA, FA, statistics, and other things that don't work?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/armey_says_1.html

XAU/Spot Ratio = .297

Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.67

While Big John Disney's analysis was working on me, it was you who pushed me into action to buy S.A. mining shares several weeks ago. Thanks!

Thank you for expressing your concerns about astrology being promoted on this forum. Better than stewing, yes? Astrology has certainly had its detractors, not the least being charlatans using tabloids to make a buck in its name. But then, one could look at Jim and Tammy Bakker or their ilk and condemn another often misunderstood group of people. The difference here, with MS, is that he is a person of reason and dignity, and he respects ours. He doesn't hesitate to tell when his calls are based on planetary rather than other TA concerns. A very important point to one who might consider one and not the other a valid guideline! In the 6 months or so I've been following his posts, there hasn't been any effort to generate a following, or to promote his science.

What's equally important, and may be missed by many, most methods of Technical Analysis have failed to account for chaos theory, and completely fall apart when held under the scrutiny of modern science. Yet we don't continually harangue those who profess a belief in such. Just wish them luck, and occasionaly point out the error, hoping that they will prudently examine the implications of it all, and adjust their calculations or bets, as their ability allows. It is my contention that MS's astronomy is at least as viable a method of analysis as most TA theories being used to justify market positions today. And, therefore, that it is not a violation of netiquette. Yours truly, Promey

Old Gold: Perhaps you have misread my posts. For months I have talked about the gold bug Tsunami -- actually sharefin originated that and I embellished on it. Also Oldman pointed out several times that gold/gold equities will rally when the regular equity markets make their final runup. The exit of the smart money. Not just when inflation returns. Also, we know from F. Veneroso that the equilibrium price of gold is somewhere around $600/oz, even without a whiff of inflation.

As I have said numerous times, I am just crazy enough to want to ride the gold bug Tsunami, like RJ's flesh and blood surfers, with full knowledge that a beach lies ahead. My liquid assets are now at 50% precious metals equities. The turbulence of the wave crashing on the beach will be the crash of the equities markets, gold equities included. In fact you yourself have stated that if we have a significant runup in gold equities, we are bound to have a correction in our favorite topic when the inevitable happens.

When I say I am worried about a runup in gold equities, it simply means that I am looking for a reason why. I don't like it when gold goes up rapidly, even though I want to make money. The reason is that gold often goes up when there is real trouble ahead. Namely, is the smart money exiting the equities markets for a reason? South Korea? Japan? Threat of war?

It is always best to know as much as possible in investing so that you do not get caught on the wrong side of the fence. I may be worried, but I am not dumb enough to sell my precious metals equities until I can see the beach. Of course, I could be wrong and miss the beach, but it will be a great ride! Unlike the real thing, I can dust myself off, and wait for the real gold bull after the equities crash.

If you want to know what I was really uncertain about, it was the general equities markets. I didn't know about Oldman's bearish comments until just after I had jumped on the new computer stock wave. My investing skills are nowwhere as good as his. So I took some profits today, just in case.

Farfel, I'll just keep quiet for awhile. Not over yet, is it. Tom

Dear Sir, is there any reason why I, a Buddhist, should be concerned about the guidelines of your religion? This is an international forum, and there are a lot of non-Christians with viewpoints out there who prefer not to be silenced by another's religious preferences.

Don't write off the big ugly stock market yet, because the NASDAQ fell nearly 1.9% after gaining 6.5% in under three weeks. Whoa! Wait and watch, the impact of the Japanese inflows is still young. Brokerage houses are just putting the infrastructure in place there to enable these flows. Shorts are at an all-time high, never a sign of a top.

Quit your breast-beatin' will ya? One post on your fantastic gains is enough! I, for one, am not interested in relative price comparisons between NA and SA. Anybody with a peanut for a brain knows that the XAU is basically only 4 major stocks with a lot of hedged production and a bunch of high-cost dogs thrown in for good measure. Some comparison that is! Anyway the SA stocks have a lot of catchin' up to do since they were dumped so fiercely as gold got hammered below their cost of production. Should gold falter here they will get hammered again much worse than their hedged brthren in NA! There's a time and a season for both! So cut the comparison crap and the constant infomercials for SA!

There will always be a special place at the Kitco dinner table for you.... ( just bring red wine....hee, hee... ) I dig astrology and Ronald Reagan.

Geologist finally called and we had a good conversation. Too much to post, give me a call. Looks a lot better, Charlie

Geologist finally called and we had a good conversation. Too much to post, give me a call. Looks a lot better, Charlie

Jack: Those Canarc idiots still have not posted the Veneroso press conference. They were supposed to have it up by April 15. Perhaps they will have it by year-end?.I will post it here when they post it therw

Tomorrow should be a very interesting day for gold, the NASDAQ, and the Dow. Go gold! Down Dow!

In answer to your question, YES. Christianity, specifically
Catholicism, was founded by our Lord, Jesus Christ, the one and
only true God ( in the Trinity ) . I have no right to judge you
but I do have the duty to profess what I know to be true.

Myrr, where are you?

Promey

Well put.

I am looking for a publisher for my new book "The Phrenology of Markets".

It is based upon the ancient science ( chuckle ) of Phrenology and describes in detail what happens when massess of humanity, heavily involved in a financial bubble, suddenly wake up, bump their heads, shake of their hypernation-sloth and head for the hills.

I wish I could stay awhile, could be an interesting day. bb

'Ttention! There will be no more proselytizing of personal religious beliefs at this site! This site is for goldbugs ONLY--not religious wacko's and zealots! Save it for your local church, mosque, synagogue or insane asylum, but leave us goldbugs alone! That is an order!

You must remember that Christ was a Jew, in fact he was a Rabbi and taught Judaism, the people he taught put their own interpretation on it and that was the beginning of Christianity. We dont need to beat everyone over the head with religeon, there will never be total agreement Shalom to you. I will not respond in this vein again because I try not to force my Judaism on anyone but I have had hundreds of people try yo change my belief and I dont particularly care for it.

Myrmidon: I am a card-carrying physicist, so I would be ( you would think ) one of the least likely supporters of Mike Sheller -- but I am. I have had some very frustrating experiences trying to understand Astrology as it is practiced these days, partially because most individuals I have interacted with are unable to explain what they do or how they do it in a fashion that I can understand. Faith in Astrology is not enough for me. I need facts/concepts that I can comprehend.

However, there is clearly something to Astrology as I have discerned analytically by looking at lunar cycles and tidal cycles -- just moon, sun and earth. I would normally call this Astronomy -- because that is all I used to conclude that he has something to talk about. In deference to Mike Sheller, whom I respect very much, I do not venture to correct him.

I will continue to analyze and question ideas about this field, since it offers clues to chaos theory, human behavior, the markets, and possibly even answers to the mysteries of the universe.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 23
-- TOTALS
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,804,334 - 453,201 troy ounces
Copper 109,288 - 233 short tons


No change in eligible comex gold stocks - its interesting to note that as the yellow metal rises, that there is no rush to sell into it by increasing the eligible stocks. In the past six months or more, each time we had a rally the eligible numbers would jump up just before the price turned down.

JTF: I gather that if gold surges you will be frightened as hell, but that fear will be assuaged by new riches. I also suspect you will feel guilty if you make big money while the dipsters are finally slaughtered.

For those worrying about a 1987 repeat when gold stocks got crushed -- the Dow/gold ratio was just SIX when that crash hit and the XAU had soared for many months.. The Dow/gold ratio now is around 29. Quite a difference, yes

xau -- third of a percent

goldbug index ( Amex hui ) -- one percent

jgai - six percent

TSE?? VSE?? Aussie?? ( aussie, about five percent last
nite I think )

Cabeza de Queso Oro -- it actually matters.

I am not surprised for the forum's support on ASTROLOGY.

It certainly influences people when the days of the week
are associated with ancient Greek gods.

*********************************************************************

SUN-DAY = day of the sun

MON-DAY = day of the moon, French Lun-di = Luna = Moon

TUES-DAY = day of Mars, French Mar-di = Mars the greek god

WEDNES-DAY = day of Mercury, French Mercre-di = Mercurius

THURS-DAY = day of Jeus, French Jeu-di = Jeus

FRI-DAY = day of Venus, French Vendre-di = Venus

SATUR-DAY = day of Saturn, from Saturn

*********************************************************************

But again, this is stuff all of us know....

Gold on the globex is currently up 50 c/oz @ $316.3

There have been many, many threads over the past months where investing and markets have been discussed in light of Christian prophesy. Much talk of apocalypse, and a great many Biblical references. No non-Christian has complained, that I'm aware of. It is only right that other, specifically non-Christian viewpoints be tolerated and respected as well. Much mention has been made of trying to increase our attendance in the orient, especially Japan. It's a wide world, and it may be that sometimes you will feel compelled to ignore certain threads for your own peace of mind. Respectfully, Promey

I second aurator's emotion...I'm Southern Baptist/Hindu...or any religion that teaches me how to respect my fellow man/woman.

Apparently you don't! Wednesday is derived from the ancient Druid god Woden. Thursday is derived from the god Thor. Friday is derived from the Druid goddess Friea. Where did you ever come up with all that other crap?

Could by an exciting night! Gold is already being bid up.

I was a Jew, then a Roman Catholic, then a Baptist, then a Mormon, then a Presbyterian, then Lutheran , then a Muslim, then a Buddhist, etc, etc. Now I'm not sure, but I know I have known THE one and only true GOD. That's the one who says: Do Good and Avoid Evil. Perhaps enough said on religion?. Tom

If so, it has been overpriced consistently since 2/3/95. Gold was at 376.8 and the XAU was at 100.46. Both figures are at about the historical average for gold and the XAU since 1983. At no time since 2/3/95 has the XAU had a lower standard score price than gold ( each given standard scores according to their 14 year histories. The meaning of this? The XAU has crept up in value relative to gold. Why I don't know. Perhaps Barrick's big weight in the XAU along with its hedging success is part of the reason?

Now up 70c/oz to $316.5

Did you know William Blake? Sounds like he knew you.;- )

"He's a fool who wants a proof of what he can't perceive;
And he's a blockhead who tries to make such a one believe."



William Blake----The Marriage of Heaven and Hell

The days of the week in French are associated with the greek gods indicated.

Thank you for clarifying the English days of the week.
Certainly,

SUN-DAY is the day for the sun
MON-DAY is the day for the moon
SATUR-DAY is the day for the Saturn

Is there any truth to the suspicion that amongst brilliant intellectuals exists a shortage of common sense?

Hmmm, I wonder.

I love all of you, Christians, Muslims, Jews, the whole lot 'o ya's!

I want to extend my congratulations to Cherokee still thowing his golden thunderbolts. He is one of those who kept the faith during the long night of the gold bear. Hope he is making really big bucks on his calls.

"evil and good are invalid concepts, stick with gold."
- c

Gateway has just been added to the S&P 500 in place of USF&G. Talk about padding the stats! Time and time again they replace the slow movers with speedy boys, and the poor sheep think it's a useful measure of value.

There's just nothing like rigging the game, heh?

Old Gold: You are right on the money on that one! I have had little success convincing even my closest friends that trouble is ahead. I will feel very guilty making money this year and the next, but there is no alternative, is there? Either you follow the lemmings over the cliff, or you step to one side, and watch. It is something like trying to stop Niagara falls -- can't be done, even though you would like to do it.

By the way, I do respect your insight -- didn't mean to be a bit feisty today. I would like very much to see what F Veneroso said in that last Canarc teleconference, and I appreciate very much your persistence in try ing to post it.

I do wish we could get Farfel more focused on technical stuff or fundamental stuff, rather than on faith in precious metals. He has such a brilliant mind.

Majority wins, ASTROLOGY adopted.

Let us not waste any more valuable bandwidth on such issue.

PALM reading is coming next.

Issue finished.

JTF: Right on my friend!

Is there any danger that I'll ruin my CD playing "Nuthin' to Lose" over and over again? You slay me! Well done on your musical efforts. Now let's watch gold go on up and away and validate your good judgment there!

I believe that when you die, your soul goes up on the roof and you can't get it down! Please lets keep religion out of this GOLD BULL that we all
worship!

Thanks

not speaking for my employer

Talk about a company with a bad future. "Gateway 2000" Now pair that name with Y2K and you've got the name of a computer company that symbolises the exact problem that will occur with computers. It's a gateway alright. The name also show lack of vision. What about when its the year 2007 and the name of the company is Gateway 2000? Can you do a Put LEAPS on that company?

Definitely enough said about religion. Save the rest for whichever Bible study. In the meantime, let's all chant:

I believe in God....I mean, Gold.

He said hello to Coach G...you knew that day that I would not kill my own...Bob's brush was his mouth...I finally grew...up Sir...fighting the good fight, for me, now,...now ...

Sir, I never had it in me to harm an American...barking, running backwards at the island...love...devotion...

defending your kind thought's with honor, daily....................

which was a result of being rejected in Nashville ( again ) ....hanging out w/ Payne bitchin' in a Nashville hotel...funny, huh? Thanks....maybe if the gold deal really works well, we'll just buy those ol' shoes!!!

In the Cavalry they taught that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. In denial of the obvious,we often try other strategies with dead horses.

1. Buying a whip.
2. Changing Riders
3. Saying things like: "This is the way we have always ridden this horse
4. Appointing a commitee to study the horse.
5. Visiting other sites to find out how they ride dead horses.
6. Increasing the standards to ride dead horses.
7. Appointing a team to revive the dead horse.
8. Creating a training session to increase our riding ability
9. Comparing the state of dead horses in todays environment.
10. Change the requirement declaring that the horse is not dead.
11. Hire contractors to ride the dead horse
12.Harness several dead horses together to increase speed.
13. Declaring that no horse is too dead to beat.

THERE ARE MORE BUT I AM SURE YOU GET THE POINT.
Kind of like discussing religeon isnt it? ; - @ ) ) )

to join in the general mayhem, i gotta say the Mike Sheller is the kewlest astrodog I know and a darned fine judge of black beans too. There, i feel better.

May be why Mr. Munk gave up CEO duties?

got a long life ahead of him.....

Odds are we may have seen the top on APRIL 21 both on the Dow and Transportation indices. The slow steady rising price of gold may be an indication that a major bear market in the DOW has begun. If the final top is in, now , deflation will accelerate . Today, the CRB was down over a point and gold was up . In the comings days, if the CRB declines below 218 and gold breaks 318 on the upside it will confirm the RUNAWAY deflationary phase we have entered into 1n 1998.

Your brilliance arises from your contrariness.

I trade spoos and gold, so I am naturally interested in your opinion. And I agree stocks are going down and gold up. But because of deflation? I think both stocks down and gold up are leading indicators: of re-inflation. "deflation" is last year's story.

Why? I don't know either but there is a range for the XAU in relation to gold no matter what the price of gold. Sort of uncanny.

"Majority wins, ASTROLOGY adopted." --Myrmidon

BS!!! That's not even CLOSE to fairly representing what took place here.

Whether you are aware of it or not, at bare minimum, honesty is expected out of any person purporting to carry the banner of enlightenment.

the likely scenario. Who needs another weak currency? However they manage it, the result has got to be perceived by the public as a strong currency; otherwise, they will be creating another peso ( or its equivalent ) . My prime suspects are gold ( from the CBs ) and US Dollars ( probably short term treasuries ) . Any thoughts?

Where do you get the Globex Gold quotes from?

Misspelled Religion in last ol'fahts disease took control of my typing once more sorry . But the point comes across yes? :-@

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/inflow_lim_1.html

I've been thinking about your posts the past few days. Here is a thought.
Some years ago I developed an array ( didn't have spreadsheets back then ) plotting temperatures, barometric pressures, humidities and a couple of other weather parameters plus moon phase against an easily tracked set of human behaviors. I got some statistical correllations with the weather, particularly frontal passages, but was unable to put in more than 2 years worth of data at a time due to limits of the computer I was using. So I ended up never publishing and stuck the study back in a drawer. Most of the learning was in having to write the statistical program anyway. IMHO

Computer technology and weather reporting have improved since then. It would be interesting to find a data source which tracked temperature pressure, humidity, over the population centers of the US then plot these and and the first and second derivatives of each per time against commodities prices and futures prices, volumes and arbitrage numbers. IMHO

No telling what you'd find, maybe just noise. But in keeping with my theory that you're just providing a dichotomous problem ( remember the Samurai-flower arranging illustration? ) for your concious mind to chew on while your intuition works on pattern recognition, it might prove interesting. IMHO

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/markets_sw_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/mof_urges__1.html

Have a look at ozone levels too.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/japan_oppo_1.html

I have CRS the other ol'faht's disease.

Stocks are going down and GOLD UP because of Deflation NOT INFALTION. Let me explain: This is only my opinion.
1. We had runaway inflationary phase between 1966-1982.
2. We had a Disflationary phase between 1982-1997. In 1982 the annual inflation rate was 14%, today it's 1.5%.
3. Debt levels today are enormous worldwide. The US bond market is
huge. With any hints of inflation the bond market will collapse and interest rates will soar.
4. Big money is sensing runaway deflation and is moving to precious
metals for safety as an hedge against defaults, money destruction,
reneg,devaluations , etc. The probability of sustain inflation is O unless
the federal government pays its bills in cash instead of checks. So far
they are paying their bills with checks.
5. As an example look at oil ,currently selling for $15.22 .
6. Corporate profits are being squeezed. Soon they will begin to lay off
their employees.
7. There is no liquidity in ASIA. Ther are capital shortages in ASIA and
now these shortages are spreading to South America.
8. The most important thing to remember is : A trend can't be changed
by CB or politicians. It will accelerate until it exhaust itself. This is a
term process.
9. There may be a temporary rise in interest rates which will spook the
market and cause a crash. After the crash , interest rates will decline
substantially. Cash will be very scarce.
l

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/markets_sa_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980423/safrica_an_1.html

I am also interested in the Globex Quote Rob are they available on the net ?

http://text.morningstar.net/cgi-bin/GetNews.exe?NewsStory=Ms/TheGuestRoom/980417FArmstrong.html

You might want to consider adding worldwide manufacturing overcapacity to your list. Capacity which was debt financed.

http://text.morningstar.net/cgi-bin/GetNews.exe?NewsStory=Ms/TheGuestRoom/980417FArmstrong.html

http://www.bis.org/press/index.htm

First ,
Donald thank you for your post.
I expect a HUGE UPSIDE move in GOLD during this runaway deflationary phase. In deflation there are no options except for gold.
Equities will decline substantially.
Real estate prices will decline substantially.
Commodities will decline substantially.
Unemployment within the next 6-18 months may reach 15%+ in the US
and much worse worldwide.
Gold upward move will astound you. All PM related investments will move for the next few years.
What else can I say.
Thank you.

Go to http://cbs.marketwatch.com/ and enter GC=M8 for a June Gold Qoute.

Ron, re:18:06. Please explain what to you suggest. As far as I am concerned the issue is finished. Majority wins.

Retired soldier, re:18:09. My spelling is bad also, but it will get better with practice. One way to improve it is to write long posts,
Then read them before posting. Hard to do when rushing to post.

The topping pattern we're seeing in the Dow is very reminiscent of the
over 500-point drop we experienced in late October, 1997. If patterns repeat themselves, we should see a leg down early next week and then a
more precipitous drop shortly thereafter. A Dow correction of some five percent in the next couple weeks is very plausible.

Futures Qoutes

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

How does the tremendous increase in the world money supply fit into your deflation scenario.

Gosh I hope that you are right. I am sure
that you are right about the direction of stocks
and gold.

It is the reason ( Deflation ) that I am not so
sure is right.

Perhaps we will have deflation first for a
period of time, but the tendancy is to try to
spend your way out of a 15% unemployment
situation.

Right now we have inflation. It's all right
there in equities. Seems to me if people can
rotate over into the deep cyclicals quickly
they can save this boodle of profit that they
now have in equities.

I guess if they don't move quick enough those
inflationary profits will be gone with the
wind and then you will be exactly right.
We would then have deflation.

OK---I will go for that. But I hope that a
lot of the smart ones will move money into
deep cyclicals before the crash! That would
make my stocks go up. I would prefer a long
slow bear market in equities. That way more
of those inflationary profits would find a
safe haven behind my PM stock investments.

Sydney - Friday - April 24: Palladium futures in New York closed
higher after a volatile session which saw the metal hit both the upper
and lower trading limits amid nervousness ahead of Friday's Russian
parliamentary vote on President Yeltsin's prime ministerial candidate.
June palladium settled $7.40 higher at $315.95 oz but July
platinum fell $4.80 to $415.90 oz. June gold improved 90c to $315.80 oz
and May silver edged 2.2c ahead to $6.285 oz.
Estimated total volumes were 36,000 for gold, 17,000 for silver,
1,664 for platinum and 1,403 for palladium.
Palladium spent the first part of the day at or near the $12
upper limit, then plunged to be briefly limit down at mid-session before
bouncing higher into the close.
Analysts said the Russian Duma's vote is crucial for the
resumption of exports of both palladium and platinum. Yeltsin's
nominated prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, has twice been rejected by
the Duma, and a third rejection will allow the president to dissolve the
parliament and call a general election.
However, many believe the Duma will approve Kiriyenko this time
rather than risk the possibility of an election.
In other news, NYMEX has been granted permission to lift the
daily trading limit on the spot palladium contract after complaints from
traders that the market had become untradeable because it couldn't keep
up with soaring spot prices.
The exchange also more than doubled trading margins which, along
with the removal of the trading limit, comes into effect on Monday.
Gold remained strong, extending the sharp gains of the previous
two days, while silver was quiet.
In London the PM gold fix was set at $312.75 and the metal was
changing hands at $314.10 in late dealings.
Silver last traded at $6.31 while platinum ended the day at
$411.
ENDS

Despite the enormous increase in the money supply in recent years, prices continues to fall. Why ?
The markets is begining to anticipate major defaults . Much of the money that was created has been invested in equities, real estate,
businesses, etc. As the stock market and commodities decline, much of that money will be wiped out. I believe that by the time the baer market is equities is over, 95 % of the debts worldwide will be wiped out and we will
start again from a clean slate.

.

Wall St. Doomsayers Warn End is Near

By Marjorie Olster
Reuters

NEW YORK ( April 22 ) - A caricature on the cover of Newsweek magazine's latest issue of a tiara-crowned bull in a wedding dress gave some stock experts cause to pause.

Here was yet another red flag, a warning that the stock market's dramatic rally may be nearing its end.

''By the time the editor assigns people ... to put a big story on the cover, everybody knows it is a bull market and it is very late in the game,'' said Robert Stovall, president of Stovall/Twenty-First Advisers. ''Usually when you see a bull on the cover of a major magazine, that is the end.''

Michael Burke, editor of the bi-weekly Investors Intelligence newsletter that publishes a closely watched bulls-vs-bears sentiment index, explained the concern.

''If too many people are bullish, people are fully invested and there is not much money on the sidelines. The proverbial Wall of Worry is not there.''

The merger mania on Wall Street, a speculative run-up in Internet stocks recently and a surge in initial public offerings in the first quarter all point to frothy enthusiasm that is typical of market tops, analysts said.

Harry Laubscher, market analyst at Tucker Anthony, said another sign stocks are headed for a downturn is the growing evidence that big money managers are almost fully invested, while weaker buyers who missed the big move up are stepping in late in the cycle to purchase stocks.

He also noted that last week, breadth readings, which measure advancing vs. declining issues, were weak even as the Dow Jones industrial average set record highs.

''We are anticipating in the next week or two we will have a major correction,'' Laubscher said.

Of course, there are still plenty of optimists on Wall Street gunning for the Dow to cross the 10,000 point mark after the blue chip index easily topped 9,000 for the first time ever earlier this month.

But the doomsayers see that as just another harbinger of pain to come.

Investors are complacent and not paying attention to some very serious warning signs, Stovall said.

''There is not enough fear and not enough credence is given to the spreading Asian depression. Most people think it is an acute case of the flu. But it is a chronic case,'' he said..

The Dow has rocketed up 16 percent so far this year from 7,908 at the end of December to about 9,185 on Wednesday.

But first-quarter corporate earnings estimates were scaled back dramatically ahead of the reporting season, some due in part to the economic malaise plaguing Asian nations.

Although most companies have come in at or above the sharply reduced expectations, profits are down significantly from the fourth quarter.

Many analysts are concerned stocks are too expensive given an increasingly uncertain earnings outlook.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Nasdaq composite ratios of stock prices to trailing 12-month earnings are at historic highs, 28 and 69 times, respectively, Stovall said.

Dividend returns have dropped below 1.5 percent for the average S&P500 stock, which means people are paying too many dollars for a dollar's worth of dividends, he added.

Another closely followed market sentiment indicator is telling the same story. Burke said the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears index shows bears are at a six-year low of 22.3 percent vs. 54.6 percent bulls.

When the survey of writers of investment newsletters was first conceived in 1963, it was thought a higher percentage of bulls would signal a market rise. But it turned out the contrary was true, Burke said. In a normal bull market, he said, the percentage of bulls to bears is about 45 percent to 35 percent.

Burke also said selling by insiders of their own companies' stock is on the rise, indicating the market will turn bearish around summertime.

One potential threat to the rally could come from the Federal Reserve. There were growing fears in the market that robust economic growth will lead the Fed to raise rates, increasing the cost of borrowing for companies and consumers.

The International Monetary Fund has added to the jitters, warning more than once in the past week of the danger of a major U.S. stock market correction.

REUTERS@ Reut16:16 04-22-98

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.

What about the 10% increase of money
supply last year?

What if the EURO backed with Swiss Franks
instead of the US Dollar? And then sent all
of those dollars home to the US.

What if the EURO failed because they are
going head to head with the Y2K bug target
date. I think that this stands a good chance
of happening by the way.

No--I vote for inflation. The Fed will
print us right into inflation. Greenspan only
has one year left before retirement. I think
he is in a no win situation right now.
Damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't.
He would sooner have inflation than deflation
since it is easier to beat.

Lots of things can happen to move it in
either direction.

Anyway with that DOW/gold ratio at near all
time highs, if you are in PM's you are in
good shape. Sooooo GO GOLD/SILVER

Well, I certainly agree with you in regard to the direction of gold and equities...however time will tell regarding the deflation/inflation debate.

BTW...Ms. Frustrated would be preferable to Mr. Frustrated...but here in cyber-space just plain old "Frustrated" would do just fine.

FWIW Unfortunately we'll see deflation first,there are not enough
bills printed to satisfy the demand when people try to sell their stock
and cash in their accounts at their local bank.We have a taste of what is
to come with Asia.All those numbers are meaningless when confidence
flees out of the window.The suggestion is to have cash ,and physicals
at home and request delivery of your stocks in bearerform.I hope this
day is not to arrive.But the higher the stockmarket is going the
more I feel the aftermath is going to be out of control.Have a good day

Does it matter that much if inflation or deflation is the cause of
of a gold bull? Frankly, I would prefer deflation, since those with
any money at all do very well indeed, and cashing out of stocks into
hyperinflation sounds counter productive. But deflation = depression,
an economic disease that is not only undefined, but incurable.

The rise in the price of gold coupled with runaway deflation phase
is indicating that the US dollar will become convertible to gold in the not too distant future. Why?
1. As we sink into a severe deflation , the US government will officially
raise the gold price in terms of dollars to create liquidity in the system and stabilize the dollar.
2. They will follow the Euro backing in order to compete with the rest of the world and invite capital flows into the US.
3. Since most of the money supply will be wiped out during this deflationary phase , the US government will forget all the talks about
demonetizing gold and will find it very easy to raise officially the POG .
4. Most of the politicians in office today will be voted out during the next elections ( because of the deflation ) and the new incoming politicians
will do the right thing.

JP: I join Farfel in predicting stagflation. Governments can always head off deflation if they are determined to do so. Run the printing presses and slash taxes. This according to Milton Friedamn -- the father of monetarism.

There will indeed be deflation in some sectors plagued by heavy overcapacity. But sustained deflation in the general price level ain't gonna happen. Count on it.

They have tried just about everything in Japan .Long term Interest rates
are less that 1%. Short term money ia available to qualified borrowers at 0.5%. They are reducing taxes and have been printing like crazy and nothing seems to help. Remember, Japan has no external debts. Japan is truly in a very severe deflation which ia accelerating. How about the rest of ASIA ?

http://globefunddb.theglobeandmail.com/
Yesterday's page contrasts the reality of the headline vs. the conjecture of the 'expert'.

I have always considered DRFNY to be the class of South Africans. It is less explosive than the marginals, but capable of huge moves. It has not done much yet. At 6 7/8 it appears to be a bargain. I considered switching my HGMCY into DRFNY today, but experience has taught me to sit tight during gold bull markets. Usually the switch is not worthwhile.

I thought that DRFNY was sought after by Anglogold and Gold Fields? Anyone have any comments?

In inflation you have options. You can invest in commodities, real estate, business, etc.
In deflation you have no options. Only PM go up in deflation. Everything else goes down. See my previous post.

We can only hope that months of money supply pumping at 10% plus by the
US Fed will create inflation as all that cashed out money comes flooding out of the DOW bear.

The per-contract margin will be $13,000 for clearing members, up from $5,500; $14,300 for members, instead of $6,050; and $17,550 for customers, up from $7,425. NYMEX also received permission from the CFTC to remove the maximum limit on price fluctuations for some palladium futures.

Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation?
Obviously there are both carrots and potatoes and other ingredients in the stew, but Sector Rotation must be factored in. If you have several million whatsits of OPM ( other peoples' money ) that you must put somewhere, where are you going to put it? I say: "NOT IN A TOPPING SECTOR". We're seeing a lot of FOUND money here. These institutional inflows are showing up ( in part ) in an oversold PM sector.

Anyone know why it's been a poor performer relative to DROOY or HGMCY?

OLD-GOLD, it is rare that something re your economic outlook has been
in contrast to my thinking, but you last post re stagflation and governments inflating to prevent deflation I disagree with at this time.
As you know, if you've read my few postings, my long term feeling has
always been that where we are headed is an inflationary depression. As
contradictory as that may sound, this is my opinion. It has happened
before, in Germany after the 1st WW, for different reasons, but the amount of debt the world economies have created over the past 60 years and more will come back to haunt our offspring.
Yes I suspect the way out for governments is to turn on the presses, but
that has never worked as a long term solution, as history has shown.
After many years of living beyond our means, worldwide, there has to come
a day of paying the piper back. Some of the American forefathers have
rightly stated that during good times, you set aside some funds for the
anticipated rainy days, that are sure to come. Well we have refused to
do that for more than one generation, and it will not be a pleasant period ahead, when the out of balance world economies will be faced with
the hard truths that are staring us all in the face.
People will have to live with less, work harder and longer hours and compete like never before, just to survive. It's all happened before, and
le ca change le plus ca le memme chose.
I believe, based on past performance, that it will take a decade or two
to alleviate all of the imbalances. Now when one thinks of that length of
time for the world to suffer economic hardships, you can just imagine
the social, and political upheavals that will accompany this scenario.
Gloom and Doom, maybe, but we must take stock realistically, and not
kid ourselves into believing that today things are different- they ain't!
Have a pleasant day.

Tonight the Nikkei is up 200 points, indicating the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) is frantically buying paper to support the stock market above the all critical 15000 level.

In so doing the BOJ is wasting all of its reserves in a futile attempt to save the ship from sinking below the waves. The Nikkei is doomed to bottom probably between 7000-8000. Consequently, the BOJ is wasting valuable reserves - which it needs to support the Yen. The BOJ ammunition is replenished by dumping US T-Bonds. And we all know what that means!!!!!!

Japanese Savers have only one safe harbor: G-O-L-D!

Replying if I may-
Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 20:29
crazytimes ( RANGY ) ID#342376:
Anyone know why it's been a poor performer relative to DROOY or HGMCY?
If you look at the volume of both of these stocks, while creating what
appears to be a bottom, you must learn to be patient and you will be
rewarded. If you follow enough gold stocks, you will notice while some
move in one direction others don't, or may even move in the opposite
direction. The long term direction is what is important, and most
if not all will eventually reach the same goal.
I've experienced this often, so keep the faith, and Rangy will not
dissappoint you, I believe. I too own it.

I talked to the man this evening. They have over 6000 acres in the alleghany-Downieville area and a bunch of historical gold mines. They have done "diagnostic" work to find the best starting place. A JV has dropped several million $ on them to develop the key properties. This could lead to a real upgrade in values. Any other questions please email - it could take a lot of space to describe. Hope this helps for now, Charlie

Why is it that the most horrible economic outlooks are always followed by
"have a nice day" type of quip?

Love those posts!

At the risk of appearing as though I were proselytizing for astrology, which I have never done, let me say that I am simply overwhelmed at the importance my planetary predilection has had upon this beloved forum today. First, for my supporters and friends, and those objective souls, my heartfelt appreciation and thanks. Verily this day you have dwelt with me in Paradise. As for Brother Myrmidon, who apparently got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, or perhaps was jilted by a comely astrologer, I can only say that "stars" ARE facts. Please do not discount them. Without them what would little humans do? I do not "propagandize astrology" either. I seek neither to defend it or to ram it down anyone's throat. I do not seek to "make Kitco an astrological forum." That is simply ridiculous.
As for "violating Kitco netiquette", were I Bart I would banish you from this forum forthwith. You show little respect for our host's ability to seperate the wheat from the chaff here. I have more faith in him myself. As for your recitation of the days of the week, etc, and "stuff all of us know" you are correct. However it is apparent to me that there is much "stuff" YOU do not know. I would bet Mapleleafs to donuts that you know absolutely NOTHING about astrology, yet feel qualified to talk about it. Sir, when you have studied and practiced it for as long as I have you might venture an opinion. Otherwise you talk through your nether orifice about things you know nothing about. As for those religionists who are quick to condemn astrologers, etc, it always fascinated me that more peopl;e have been murdered by such fundamentalist mentalities than can be counted, yet I have never known an astrologer to have burned someone at the stake, or put someone on the rack. But casting a biblical quote dissing astrology at me is perhaps a tad unfair. The Bible says the same thing about faith in gold, yet I notice many fundamentalists continue here at Kitco. I would not hurl a biblical quote at them for doing so ( those satanic worshippers of mammon ) , but perhaps scripture can make a devil or a hypocrite out of anyone. If we were all to be held to the Bible ( all of us who are Believers - and I AM a Believer ) we would ALL be instantly condemned. I don't defend astrology. I just DO it. I don't sell it, I give it away. Considering the price you pay, it would be easy to pass by my posts and not care. I really don't understand why intelligent people get worked up over the astrological observations I make. It's not like I take up too much space at Kitco either, is it? There are many fine commentators at Kitco who can analyze the fundamentals and the technicals far better than myself. Should I just repeat what they say? Or remain silent? No, I have my own things to say. If they are different than most in their context, then consider it just part of the wonderful lure of Kitco that all possible disciplines are brought to bear here in the search for what the markets may do in the future. Notice I said "search," for who at Kitco is always right? You? Me? As for the endless stories I hear from critics of astrology as to how "astrologers" have led people to ruin in the markets, the same could be said of many other kinds of advisors and analysts. Yet there are also astrologers who have been more right than most, and are conveniently dismissed. That is because people react out of prejudice, and do not actually LISTEN to what is being said. People have been led to ruin by lawyers, doctors, priests, pastors, politicians, presidents. Surely more so than by astrologers. Should we abolish or deny these professions? No, Brother Myrmidon, we are all human, and it would be a sad little grey world if we all thought alike and followed precisely the same little habitrails of philosophy and action. As for having to prove to you, Kitco, or anyone else the veracity of my astrological work, I don't feel the need. And I don't have the time. But if you do, you are certainly invited to keep score on me and report to the forum on what you find. If it becomes manifest that in actuality, I stink as an astrologer, that may not be so much a reflection upon astrology as it is upon ME. I never claim to be perfect. Or even good. I just say what I have to say from my own perspective, and folks can take it or leave it. I really didn't think it was so important. Certainly not important enough for people to get all worked up over and feel they must attack me for. But then I guess sometimes, in my humility, I underestimate myself. Maybe I should get a little more aggressive...especially with folks like you. But why would we want that?
No, I think you have made your point, which on a free forum like this is your right to do. Actually, I was rather tickled by the attention you engendered. Perhaps as time goes by your mind will expand to accept that there are things you don't know that other people do. If, at such a moment of revelation, you look back and see your persecution of me in a clearer light, I will consider it a worthwile cross to have borne. For both of us.

Strumming occurs, bad bardswe are not responsible...out of the deep we comebrush aside your new found technologyto help, and understand,

I am greater than the myth, trulyENIGMA was wrong

Although my kind did, do, does, come from the deep.we refuse to wear the insignia of any, this then is explainedit is in the books lovedevotion.pull open your sport-coat, and look at your heartthus the lesson endeth.

For one who feels "astrology is rebellion against God," you are very Christlike in your acceptance of me. THAT is the universal God at work in your magnanimous soul.
THAT is what the Master's teachings are all about.

Donald- thanks for the Morningstar article posting- just took a quick
look, and what I find interesting is the following-
He compares an ounce of gold's value in buying a good suit to history, which is very pertinent, since this comparison is frequently made to
show what inflation has done over the ages, when compared to gold's
value. What I find interesting whenever a writer uses charts is to see
the length of time of the chart to prove his point. Would he have used
a chart dating back say 50 years, instead of 8, he would not have been
able to prove his point, nor will he if he realizes, as do many here,
that we are seeing a major bottoming in PMs. But it's natural that at
a bottom everything looks bad and at tops the world looks rosy.
So what else is new?
Sure am rambling today. Guess I'm making up for being quiet for so long.
So long!

crazytimes ( RANGY ) : Give it time.

This outfit has about 6 square miles over the "Crayfish" fault with other mineral deposit potential. They are going to drill the bay area ( underwater ) and poke around on the hydrothermal areas. There is a potential of substantial tonnage for massive sulfides and a growing possibility of hydrothermal gold deposits. The geologist said he was familiar with Kirkland Lake and recommends checking this concept for AYM. That means there are Tellurides there which could lead to larger gold mineralization. Email for further details or call. cdevoto@abts.net

I make wide my sportcoat in the sight of men, but I pray in my closet. For what does it profit a man if he gains the world, but loses his soul? No one ( noone ) knows whither the spirit goeth, or from whence it cometh, except he who is OF the spirit ( or she, of course ) .

...Mars is conjuncting my Mercury. I am holding my tongue in check.
Leccion finito.

Holder of considerable RANGY myself. Have been disappointed initially but let's be patient.

To all:

Nothing much definitive happened today. Gold did make it to a new high for 98, always a plus. But, the U.S. dollar index continued its rebound off the its 200-day MA.
I've been working from the perspective that gold and the dollar are moving in opposite directions. If this continues, then we may see that this latest rally was in response to a lower dollar that was testing its uptrend. If the dollar passes this test, I would expect gold to pull back when it rises.
Tomorrow is a very big day and it should tell us a lot.
It's been two weeks since I wrote The Ugly Truth as gold and the XAU fell on Friday, April 10 to close poorly for the week. As I've said, this latest rally has surprised me. Silver has not been able to rally in tandem, and that's a negative.
Prior to two weeks ago, I had been very positive on gold, as far as seeing it break over the January high of 306. That's done. My target of 316-323 is not accomplished yet, but it's close. Also, we now have some gaps below us that should get filled in here at some time.
The rally has done nothing to help the Vancouver stocks. If this rally was going to 338, then I would think Vancouver would be rolling by now.
Wish I could be more definitive. Maybe after tomorrow.

OMT: I still want to beat the drum for North American Palladium ( PDL ) . The bad news is behind it. It saw a sharp sell-off Tuesday afternoon on the TSE, but has bounced back from it.
PDL issued a press release yesterday that assured the market it was in good shape. That's the first good piece of PR I've seen come from the company. The new president, Keith Minty, is in the second quarter of running his first company. He is learning on the job. He's quite good at the technical side of exploration, mining, and milling. On the PR side, he's inexperienced. He has just dealt with his first catastrophe, and has handled it fairly well, I'd say.
The mill is running near capacity of 2,900 tons per day. PDL should be producing about 8,000 ounces of palladium per month. I hope management is hedging some at this high price. That will make second half profits quite large.
I realize it has underperformed SWC. But this may not last.

The market didn't like BGO's press release and share release today. It fell while many other producers rose. While it does have its strong points, that entire organization has a penchant for putting out too much paper. I would hold BGO any longer.

Happy trading

The Preacher

@ Leland --

Thanks for posting that url --

http://text.morningstar.net/cgi-bin/GetNews.exe?NewsStory=Ms/TheGuestRoom/980417FArmstrong.html

"The Case Against Gold," by Frank Armstrong

"Yet there is a small but committed cadre of "gold bugs" that hold the metal in almost mystical reverence as the ultimate store of value." -- Armstrong

THE FIRST tip off was back when that Portugese official scoffed off gold's "mythical" properties. That word, used in the context of gold interchangably with the word "mystical" ( a lisping myth? ) , seems now the coming hip term with which to glibly dismiss the qualities of gold. I've seen the word pop up in a few places now and then in the context of -- not precious metals, but -- gold specifically. Even had a guy in my office complex disparage gold with the term.

At my local convenience store I saw a sign to potential cigarette buyers, something like: "You must be 18 and able to prove it to buy cigarettes. You need to have been born on or before this day in 1980."

Yes, eighteen years it's been since the big one, that famous gold mania. Eighteen years: the time it takes to be born and become a legal adult. In our accelerated times eighteen certainly could qualify as a generational measure ( sub-Xers? ) . And it's been one of those same measures by which we as a people have allowed ourselves to forget a few of the basics.

I play in a senior baseball league which serves among other things to demonstrate the adage: "The older I get, the better I was." And yes sir, we were all great back then. Our prowess on the field -- especially through the haze of a generation's measure of hair and muscle thinning and waist and wallet widening -- our skills *were* awesome. In fact, downright mythical.

But we dream no more of playing in the majors, ever, nor the minors. Our new sport dreams are more those of trying to see the ball, heaved slowly by the fat guy on the hill, well enough to hit it through the legs of the guy on third whose feet he recognizes only by their shoe size . . . then run to first, forget beating out the grounder, just getting there -- these are the stuff of the dreams of modern men of ever-improving former skills.

Mythical -- as in, something in which there might once have been some truth, but whose truth is found no more? Yes. For gold, for a speeded generation now, its mythical proportions increase with the increasing number of seasons since its heyday. "Sure, he's in the Hall of Fame, but what's he done lately?"

I'm no longer concerned with the machinations of those who, for whatever motive, would seek to keep gold in its place ( that is, based upon their premise that where gold is now *is* its place ) . What does concern me is my job -- thrust upon me involuntarily -- to attempt to bring light to those who have never known, those who, for the sake of a few ounces tucked up into a vent, just might circumvent foreclosure on their home, repossession of their car, even having to quit the baseball team in order to work a second job.

Kind of like the exchange here earlier this afternoon ( re. Astrology vs. Christ ) , everyone comes to the table entrenched. No one's persuaded by the opposition. It is the seekers -- those not yet committed but whose vote each side perceives as tiping the scales in its favor -- it is the seekers that both sides prize. Equity bulls. Gold bugs. All are valid within a particular time and place. What sickens, however, are the persuaded parrots -- of whatever argument -- mimicking the catch phrases of some guru or another. To them I say, as I have had occasion to say to my charming, precocious ( sub-Xer ) step-daughter, "I love you, dear, so please don't gloat in your ignorance."

5 Jesus answered, "Most assuredly, I say to you, unless one is born of water and the Spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God.

6 "That which is born of the flesh is flesh, and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit.

Ask me how I know the gold is going up.

And The Crowd Said: "Give us Barabbas!"

8 "The wind blows where it wishes, and you hear the sound of it, but cannot tell where it comes from and where it goes. So is everyone who is born of the Spirit."

9 Nicodemus answered and said to Him, "How can these things be?"

10 Jesus answered and said to him, "Are you the teacher of Israel, and do not know these things?

11 "Most assuredly, I say to you, We speak what We know and testify what We have seen, and you do not receive Our witness.

So let me ask you, brother. How do you know gold's going up?

I have never studied economics formally, but I am learning to trust my judgements of market activity. My take on the "I/D?" debate is this:
It is important to understand that market sectors act differently at different times. We currently see the equities market experiencing inflation while commodities are experiencing deflation. Bear with me as I state the obvious: stocks are up, real-estate is up ( generally ) , cars are down, oil is down ( this is a big one ) , PM's were down, the dollar is up, computers are down, interest rates are down. My position is that it is more benificial to understand why each "sector" is experiencing inflation/deflation rather than trying to put a general label on all sectors. I leave such naming conventions to the economic authorities. Then I and compare their analysis to my perception of reality, current events and future expectations, and I attempt to anticipate how investors will react to those conventions. In other words, I beleive that the POG can still rise in the midst of so called "deflationary pressures," even though this would seem contradictory.
We could look at two different definitions of inflation. One compares a currency to the consumer price index ( whatever that is ) and the other compares a currency to the price of gold. I tend to use the latter definition because it is easy and doesn't involve a bunch of bureaucratic BS! In the end the word means very little to me as it is very often confused in conversations. Does this make any sense?
- c

Couldn't resist- just looked at - http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=week&chart=bar&chart1=iqc&volume=y&stochastics=y&symbol=%24COMPX
Weekly NASDAQ with volume and stochastics, and as I mentioned in a recent
post it's the tech stocks that lead this bull up and it's the NASDAQ to
watch for the turn. WELL I BELIEVE WE'VE GOT IT, By George- No Pun George C. The worm has toined.

Myrmidon: All I'm suggesting, and I think others have too, is a little forbearance. Astrology doesn't work ( or at least, so say the skeptics ) , but nothing else does either ( or at least, so say the skeptics ) . But still, we're all stuck trying to anticipate what gold will do next. So in a sense we're all in the same boat without an oar, and no hope of getting one, and only this old dirty pair of shorts that RJ left us for a sail. So, I say, let the wizard wave his wand if he wants. He's a nice enough guy. And he's very smart, and a good writer, too. Who knows, he might stir up a fresh breeze or two that'll get this tub going and won't gross us out, if we all can get aft of those shorts ( no offense, RJ ) .

I believe that it may be symbolic that one of the three wise men ( not Ted )
was a magi ( Zoarastrian magician ) . That's biblical enuff for me. Enjoy ur
posts Mike. No need to justify or qualify.

Secret Friend

As the Spirit gave it to me, "BMG will make 14 before this market ends."

Job 23

10 But He knows the way that I take; When He has tested me, I shall come forth as gold.

Thanks for the wait, brother. The little ones came first.

I have read of the Moon-Venus-Jupiter rising conjunction of May 23 having effect on the markets.

Any thoughts?

Are you saying to get out of BGO or that you would hold it. SOunds
to me like you are saying get out? yes??

S&P 500 JUN98 1123.00 -350

HighRise

Hi folks. Long time lurker, first time poster. Came across a source I thought I would share. You came get the Comex Warehouse Inventory daily statistics for precious metals ( registered, eligible, total, change ) by calling ( 212 ) 299-2332 and chosing option #6. Best to call after 5p.m. to get the updates on the day.

Quick question. Several people have expressed interest in the one ounce Mounties with guaranteed buyback of $310 US. Has anybody figured out the details on actually receiving this price if the price of gold drops substantially. An e-mail response I received from the Royal Canadian Mint seemed to indicate that you would have to return it to dealer it was purchased from. Anybody have more info? I will post if I find more.

Perhaps Preacher is saying that these are his thoughts for all to consider. Perhaps Preacher is saying nothing about what you should do with your investment. I would assume that Preacher has no idea what your reasons were for investing in BGO in the first place, let alone the reasons why you might want to sell. I might even assume that Preacher does not care whether you buy or sell at all. I personally saw nothing in Preacher's post adressing your personal investment. I will also say that if you want Preacher to give you investment advice that you should offer him a commision. Watch out, you just asked a question that sparks a lot of emotion ( rage, I would call it ) on this forum. Others might not be as kind as I. - c

The 3 wise men of the Bible were, of course astrologers. What other kind of technical analysts could see the Lord coming long before any of those stodgy fundamentalists, ey?

I will look at the old ephemeris when I get a chance. Meantime, my son and his wife are visiting on business from China, and we just picked them up today. We only have a week, so I must keep my Kitco diatribes short now and postphone my research according to your observation for a day or two. Gracias.

I may have just fallen off my rocker... I decided ( after my last post ) that maybe I should have read what Preacher said a little more carefully. Now, after I openned my mouth, I think I better understand your reasons for asking such a question. Preacher, I think you missed a word or two down there. My sincere apologies to you, Rack. Now, why don't I get off-line and find a life! - c

did you see my post to you re: mining & environment this morning?

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 12:33
sharefin ( This news must be worth a $100 rise in the POG - we just have to be patient ) ID#284255:
-

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4345775.htm
Banks unprepared for millennium bug

The survey of banks, prepared by the London-based Financial Times newspaper group, shows that 250 of the 1000 top banks worldwide will not be fully millennium bug compliant by December 1998.

The cut-off at the end of this year is an internationally accepted deadline that allows a full year for testing of information technology and other computer-related systems.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OZ'z ASX has said that any company not Y2K compliant, will be struck from the board.
Now they are pointing to the fact that 2 out of OZ's 'big 4' have big problems with compliancy.

CBA & ANZ have the best gist on what is going on.
Does that leave NAB & WBC to be the failures on Y2K and that they will be delisted?
I know it's to early to make asumptions, but as the day comes closer more truths will be revealed.

For the article to allude that 1/4 of the worlds major banks have major problems with Y2K, paints a dark and bleary picture.

Failure of the financial system will send gold sky-rocketing.

And bring on major social changes.
That we can little envisage at the moment.

Well, it's better than having your Venus transiting Uranus.

For a buy and hold strategy over the millenium,
I doubt that you will have to worry about having to cash your coin in to recover you purchase price.

Much of the coming mayhem will guarantee the value.

Do unto others as you would have done unto you. Perhaps, a thought lost on many. Smile, God is watching and enjoying your posts. So am I. Tom

Sheller: Yes, I did see your post this morning. I thought it was an excellent contribution to the subject of environmental conservation - thank you. I did not respond because I thought you hit the nail on the head and I had nothing worthwhile to add. In fact, I learned a lot from all who contributed to the conversation. It is a subject I like to bring up from time to time to learn what the general opinions are on some of the less often touched issues on this forum. To conserve bandwidth and to minimize my presence here I try not to respond unless there is a point I think really needs to be added.
sharefin: I did not respond to your post the first time for the same reason. Y2k is an obvious major issue. Your posts reinforce this point - thank you. I cannot add anything worthwhile that has not already been said.
- c

My good man you will at least make good money even though you are dead wrong ( unless you sell your house and decide to rent because of "deflation" ) , and isn't that the the real prupose of all this blather: to make money?

I thank you for the most informative if distressing post. ( Where was the "have a good day" at the end? ) the immediate implications of which are recession, deflation, and world crisis. If banks are suspected to be unable to perform, we will probably see a scenario much like that of the early 30's, where people pulled out their money ( AG is printing in anticipation of that ) , and where banks may be temporarily unable to lend, for reasons of administrative chaos if no other. Before this date, I expect contingency plans will be put in place, but that they will be inadequate. Hiding money under beds and reduced lending are all recessary. I don't see a necessary increase in the price of gold stemming from this, only in its relative strength over other assets in a deflation. This is great for the holders of the physical, but may leave the futures speculators disappointed. It all depends on whether the tilt towards world-wide deflation that is already evident in the PPI's of the world's industrial nations increases. This is likely. The paper and the paper profits just evaporate in such a scenario. Most of it never existed, except in the minds of the holders of those equities.

On the other hand, I'm sure hoping that we see a nice rise in gold now, in anticipation of the fact. Got some calls I'd like to turn into physical with the leveraged profits.

The many public statements put out by Japanese officials ( see Donald's posts today ) sound almost laughably like the press statements in the USA back in the early 30's - it was all under control and going up from here -- all the way to the bottom in 32!

However it works out, we are in agreement that real money, gold and silver, are sound places to invest today. The more of us on solid financial footing, the easier this ride will be, yes?

we should consider the price of gold at this moment to be overbought and are in for a correction which hopefully be mildly down or sideways. The price of palledium passing the price of gold however might speed things up in favor of goldprice. Historically paledium has been ahead of the goldprice by a longshot, the rally I mean. It should be time now for gold to catch up. Euro Nevada tse:en made a new historical high today and is considered to be a favorite of mutual funds. Let us hope the rest will follow.

Rack,
I did indeed leave out a word. I meant to say that I wouldn't hold it any longer.
I've written before that I sold mine at C$3.80 nearly two weeks ago. I was using it as a trading vehicle. I don't think I'll do that again. I think I'll find some other stock to trade with.

Sorry about that.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Apr 23 1998 21:59
arkbuilder ( Comex Warehouse Inventory Info Source ) ID#252305:


Thanks for the alternative source.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/980427/27cash.htm

"In all honesty, this site now has little in the way
of investment help. I was given the choice by
the ASC: get an investment adviser's licence or
stop giving investment advice. I chose the latter
course. For those who are using my graphics
software I will be continuing with the weekly
downloads."

-- from an OZ webpage titled Gerry Pauley's Australian
Stocks and Shares, also denoted as 1996 Winner Most Popular
Australian Web site.

I am certainly appreciative of your balanced and well written analysis,as

I am of all who post with the sincere intent to enlighten,educate,yes,and

entertain each other.I can tell you are an honest and caring person who

wishes only the best for his fellow man,as am I.Please,continue without

prejudice your insights from whatever belief,position,or background in

this world you happen to find yourself.

Could you look at the date May 3rd 1998 and tell me/us what influences

are present that day and maybe the day prior on Europe?There is a VERY

important meeting that weekend regarding the EURO.Thanks muchly.Carry on.

" We all more or less strive to be happy,

it's what makes us happy makes us different. " : Aristotle

Note 1:Aristotle is quoted as believing there was something to Astrology,

but he could NEVER define or explain its relevance or how it worked!

Note 2:Those who blast Astrology as anti-religion,may have not ( IMHO ) fully

understood with an open mind many of the references towards looking to

the heavens for guidance,but is a matter of what YOU CHOOSE to believe.

http://www.lcc.gatech.edu/gallery/rhetoric/figures/aristotle.html

I wish these thoughts to offend no one ( noone ) .

PS:Just read your post.Do enjoy the visit from your son and his wife.

Kitco will still be here when they have departed.Thanks.

For those who like to buy instead of talk.
A Golden Salute to our friends at Kitco for their great service.
Recently I ordered 10 gold maple leafs as part of an education fund for my soon-to-be-born daughter. Below is the timetable of events:

Monday 10:00 a.m. Called ordered in to Kitco.
Monday 11:00 a.m. Transferred funds at bank.
Tuesday noon Received FedEx delivery of coins.

Granted, I was ordering from within Canada ( a different province ) , so folks in the U.S. may need to add some extra time. However , the service exceeded even my high expectations.
To help me keep perspective as I try to prepare for raising my daughter in a chaotic world I keep on my desk the following: a Bible, a gold maple leaf, and a 50,000,000 mark German banknote! Guess which provide the anchor points when the world seems too crazy!

"your gold our mold" doesn't move much metal when their recycling.

Mike, I certainly can not disrespect you as a person, though I may not hold fellowship with you in regards to astrology. Jesus clearly said that His Father shed good upon both the just and the unjust and anyone who claimed to be after God's heart would do the same. I can't claim any goodness but only Him as my source.

polloa@webtv.net if you care to discuss this since it would be best to take this discussion off this line.

As regards to any method I believe we need to use empirical means to judge the degree of corelation between predictions and results. Since anything winning more than 50% of the time could be considered adequate to ensure our early retirement, then we owe it to ourselves to keep good track of these things. I think you might agree with this.

But we often are driven by our passions and find it impossible to persue a crystaline purity in these things. Such is life.

dripping wet, into the harbor, nice keels, hmmmmmmmmm, wiping the best mud on the planet from my nails, only the finest coppersitting with the big dogs,..jealous to be roaming around. I aint got any home in this world anymoreWoody G........

I am not surprised at all. It is the GREAT hidden problem, when the USdollar starts its fall, the Euro dollars and dollars from around the world will drown the USG in tons of worthless PAPER.

SDRer knows a lot more about this than I, but it is a giant mess-- VERY SCARY.

Please allow me to pull out some excerpts:

"Few Americans may realize it, but more
U.S. currency is in circulation outside the United
States than inside. Of the $450 billion in bills and
coins now lining people's wallets, cash registers,
bank vaults, and mattresses, about two thirds--or
$300 billion--is abroad.


That percentage is rising. The end of the cold war
opened the former Soviet bloc to American
currency, and restrictions on currency trading have
been eliminated in much of Africa, Asia, and the
Middle East. Joseph Botta, who tracks U.S. cash
for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, says
that the amount of U.S. currency abroad has grown
$15 billion to $20 billion a year for the past five
years.

Roughly 80 percent of the
American cash abroad is in the form of $100 bills.
*********
( Remember we talked about this years ago... when we first heard about the USG printing new paper 100's )

*********


As long as the paper
stays overseas, the United States does not have to
redeem it for other goods or services, and it does
not swell America's domestic money supply or
contribute to inflation.


**********
Yes we shipped our inflation overseas and they are only just now realizes the USG has taken grave advantage of the rest of the world.
*********


It is almost impossible for U.S. authorities to keep
track of where U.S. currency is circulating.


*******

The biggest risk is not counterfeiting, but the termendous inflationary problem that will occur when the people of the world fee the USdollar. That is why the USG has pulled out all the stops to keep gold down and the USdollar strong. BUT the game is up, the world is wise to the USG's scheme. They are moving away from the dollar and away form the USG. Great article Lealand, thanks for posting it.

**********

Your kind wishes are appreciated. The kid is now on the couch taping Seinfeld reruns. I am sure his compatriots in Shanghai await his offerings as they did his tapes of the 3 Stooges last trip. Ah to be young again. As for May 3, Europe is a big place. I would need a date of incorporation or organization, plus time and location, of the commission or mandate to create the Euro and attendant legal structure, etc. Otherwise it is f*rting in the wind, not astrology. Sorry.

It's amazing how many people are totally oblivious to the potential devastation Y2K could bring. Of course, nobody knows for sure what will happen but almost no one is even thinking about precautions. I'd guess less than 5-10% even realize how much of their daily existence depends on countless computer networks behaving correctly. They just take it all for granted. Out of that fraction, only a handful are actually doing something about it to prepare. I'm beginning to believe that we've lost the ability to distinguish real threats from statistically insignificant ones. The hysteria over second hand smoke ( as opposed to smoking ) comes immediately to mind. The runaway stock market in the face of gross overvaluation and declining earnings also shows this. See! Everything's fine! We beat the ( drastically reduced ) estimate! Buy! It only goes up! The disinformation and spin doctoring has become some prevalent many people seem to be on autopilot, just following the crowd wherever it goes. Buy a SUV! Golf! Put your life savings in the stock market! Smoke cigars ( it's not really smoking, you see ) ! Drink only wine or ( lite ) beer!
Vote Major Party! Go deeeeeep into debt ( shows you're responsible enough for the bank to trust you ) ! All guns are bad! Fast cars are bad! Cigarettes are really bad ( Clinton said so ) ! Drugs are so bad let's trade our freedoms for protection! Gold is bad ( I hear the Nazis had some ) ! Sadly, reality will whup these people upside the head in 19 1/4 months.
Also, a spokesman for Ontario Hydro said they were 40% done for Y2K. They started 3 years ago. He also stated that if they didn't finish in time it would make the past winter's ice storms look like a walk in the park ( or something like that ) . I suppose they'll need some of the one-month COBOL wonders a company here in the U.S. is turning out. I've got a good slogan for them: "You give us four weeks. We'll give you a geek!" For want of a nail, the horseshoe was lost...

Sorry error as usual... fee should be flee.

The biggest risk is not counterfeiting, but the termendous inflationary problem that will occur when the people of the world flee the USdollar. That is why the USG has pulled out all the stops to keep gold down and the USdollar strong. BUT the game is up, the world is wise to the USG's scheme. They are moving away from the dollar and away form the USG.
Great article Lealand, thanks for posting it.

I'm on it.Will post what I can dig up on the weekend.Sunday likely.

Have great visit.

Thanks

Thanks for adding "the rest of the story."

Two points to you for clarity of vision. We've had to establish some pretty fine filters for all the scares we're constantly bombarded with, or go mad from the perpetual anxiety!

These are mine enemies
Father forgive them
They know not what they do
But Lord,
They know full well
The Thing that they do.

Though they engage
The gift of service
It is conditioned always,
By a wage.

The love we need for healing
We rarely share.
Too often only professional care,
So cold, is offered there.

Too often such care
Is strictly controlled
By economics. Profit governs
All too much out there.

Accountant and solicitor
Social worker and
Smug counsellor
These and more
All wise in anything
By the score.

And the Headmaster at the school
Who clearly thinks
That as a parent I am a fool.

The ever demanding charities
And the letters from the banks
And the Greenies
And whale watchers
And a score of cranks.

And the salesmen,
and the pollies,
So demanding of my time
At my house door.
And the junk mail
In my letter box!
And yes Lord there's more.

And me, I would be free,
I will seek
My weary souls relief
Rid of them all Dear Lord.
And rest my weary soul in Thee.

Trust me, the recycling is both innevitable and insignifigant. The tonnage of gold being moved in today's jewelry market is done through the top three jewelers in the United States:Walmart, Service Merchandise, and Home shopping Network. Seriously.

It's been a while, so I would have to dig out my SEC documents, but in the US there IS a distinction made between "investment advisors" who "advise" about individual stocks, and those whose work only touches upon the markets in a generic sense - ie: "The Stock Market," "Gold," "Grains,", etc. Commodities, while generic substances, do have their overseers, and a strictly commodity "advisor" might come up against some flak winging it. But advising purchase or sale of individual stocks does fall under the Investment Advisor Act. However, a notable exclusion from registration relates to "publishers of bona fide newspapers, news magazines, or business or financial publications of general and regular circulation." That stipulation "bona fide" is, of course, the government's way to acting arbitrarily, but I take the import of that exclusion to mean any generally broadcast or published material, as in a feature in a magazine, or a regular general feature. The internet is as legitimate a public form of broadcast and publishing as any magazine or TV or radio network. The exclusion should apply under approporiate circumstances as far as internet publication of analysis and/or advice. Another key is compensation. If no compensation is asked or accepted, then the advice, as advice, is opinion, and possibly not subject to Investment Advisor registration. But I'm no SEC lawyer ( thank God ) .

My LOVE is WITH YOU, Where ever you are......You are the Peach that Georgia dreamed of.......