Carl
@Donald
Here ( I hope ) is a graph showing the 14 year trend of Gold, XAU and th XAU/Gold ratio.
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Gold loans may leave Bank with bad debts!
Excerpted from "The Guardian", Thursday April 23 1998 - Dan Atkinson
Speculators and dealers who have borrowed British gold reserves worth
as much as 300 million British Pounds Sterling may be unable to repay
the Bank of England, industry sources warned last night...
One senior industry source warned that some of the nation's gold was
now in jewellery form, hanging around the necks of overseas consumers,
and could not be reclaimed in a crisis...
...the price has moved up 12% since January and was rising again
yesterday. Now speculators... might have to buy more expensive bullion
bars elsewhere to cover their debts. Were significant numbers unable to
do so the resulting turmoil could threaten London's pivotal position in the
international gold market...
One source warned that some bullion banks might be particularly
vulnerable, as they were in the position of borrowing short-term from the
Bank to lend longer-term to speculators, jewellery manufacturers and
others. He added that all involved in borrowing from central banks had
behaved as if the price would drop forever and that the loans could
always be repaid in cheaper gold.
It is not known what proportion of Britain's 573 tonnes of gold is on
loan, but the international average is about 10% of reserves.
the public. ( us ) Gentlemen...man yer golden battle stations.
May your long jib draw.
Nite.
The only effective way to prepare for the future is to work together, as separately none of us can stand -- regardless of how wealthy or well defended we think we are.
'United we stand, divided we fall'
Real wealth comes from the sharing of knowledge, and working together, regardless of how daunting the odds appear to be.
Personally, I would rather be designing interstellar spacecraft contemplating moonbase designs, and preparing to explore the next great unknown. But -- it seems that we must postpone our destiny and solve our societal and economic problems first.
G'Nite all!
TEACHING MATH
- ------------------------------------
Teaching Math in 1950:
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production
is 4/5 of the price. What is his profit?
Teaching Math in 1960:
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production
is 4/5 of the price, or $80. What is his profit?
Teaching Math in 1970:
A logger exchanges a set "L" of lumber for a set "M" of money. The
cardinality of set "M" is 100. Each element is worth one dollar. The
set "C", the cost of production contains 20 fewer points than set
What is the cardinality of the set "P" of profits?
Teaching Math in 1980:
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production
is $80 and his profit is $20. Your assignment: Underline the number
20.
Teaching Math in 1990:
By cutting down beautiful forest trees, the logger makes $20. What do
you think of this way of making a living? Topic for class
participation
after answering the question? How did the forest birds and squirrels
feel
as the logger cut down the trees? There are no wrong answers.
Teaching Math in 1996:
By laying off 402 of its loggers, a company improves its stock price
from $80 to $100. How much capital gain per share does the CEO make
by exercising his stock options at $80. Assume capital gains are no
longer
taxed, because this encourages investment.
Teaching Math in 1997:
A company outsources all of its loggers. They save on benefits and
when demand for their product is down the logging work force can
easily
be cut back. The average logger employed by the company earned
$50,000,
had 3 weeks vacation, received a nice retirement plan and medical
insurance.
The contracted logger charges $50 an hour. Was outsourcing a good
move?
Teaching Math in 1998:
A logging company exports its wood-finishing jobs to its Indonesian
subsidiary and lays off the corresponding half of its US workers ( the
higher-paid half ) . It clear-cuts 95% of the forest, leaving the rest
for the spotted owl, and lays off all its remaining US workers. It
tells
the workers that the spotted owl is responsible for the absence of
fellable trees and lobbies Congress for exemption from the
Endangered
Species Act. Congress instead exempts the company from all federal
regulation. What is the return on investment of the lobbying.
may hire outside asset managers to administer excess
gold reserves if voters approve a constitutional amendment
removing the Swiss franc's official gold link, Chairman Hans
Meyer said.
In the text of a speech to SNB shareholders, Meyer recalled
that a government advisory panel had found last year that the
SNB could split off around 1,400 tonnes of its 2,590-tonne gold
reserves that were no longer needed to conduct monetary policy.
The government intends to raise seven billion francs by
gradually selling part of the excess and using these funds to
finance a proposed Solidarity Foundation that would aid victims
of poverty, disasters and human rights abuses.
"The additional gold reserves not required for monetary
policy should remain property of the National Bank and be
managed along commercial lines," Meyer said.
"This task can be accomplished, it seems to me, in a way
that rules out conflicts of interest between the administration
of public property and the conduct of monetary policy. Third
parties could administer these assets, but the National Bank
would name the manager, set up guidelines and supervise the
management activity."
This plan would have to be part of revisions to the National
Bank law, which would follow constitutional amendments. No date
has been set yet for the referendum, but it is expected to be
voted on next year.
Under changes to the National Bank law that took effect in
November, the SNB has begun gold lending operations as one way
to boost returns on its foreign exchange reserves.
"At the end of 1997 lending transactions covered 99 tonnes
of gold," according to the SNB's annual report.
The average residual maturity of all such transactions was
around eight months at the time. The deals earned the SNB 2.6
million francs in 1997, for an annual yield of around 2.2
percent.
Berne announced plans for the Solidarity Foundation last
year as a way to lift neutral Switzerland above a mire of
accusations that it cynically profited from World War Two by
dealing extensively with Nazi Germany.
Public support for the plan was relatively strong when
then-President Kaspar Villiger announced it last March, but has
waned since then amid sustained foreign criticism of Switzerland
and especially its big banks.
The jist of the article is that they are discussing setting up a third party to administrate the gold sales.
Also -- the desire of the average American to maintain a high standard of living when real costs of living have increased --- has lead to neglect of our children. How do you watch them when you work two jobs, and spouse works too?
What I have so far on Antony Sutton ( no h ) is that his last book was 1997, and that he lives ( ? ) in Pheonix Arizona, and publishes something called the 'Phoenix Letter'. He must be nearly 80. My next step is to call Phoenix, or get accesss to a national phone#/address database. Antony Sutton would have excellent insight into our current situation, so we should do our very best to reach him.
all: Anyone notice that Hewlett - Packard went up 4.68 today? Computer stocks are going through the roof. Flight to safety, perhaps? Or, the beginning of that final blowoff, driven by the computer stocks? Good thing I still have some computer equities. The USS Titanic ( market ) has a way to go before it hits one of those 50 mile wide icebergs.
Better get in while you can!
Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/indext.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
-- then click on the symbol --
$INDU
-- at the left of the top listed Dow Industrial
Once again -- Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?
any central bank will sell gold where it hits the open market.
Once again again -- Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?
Thanks
Is this correct? What does this mean?
If the rumor is confirmed next week will see a 5/10 % retracement in the S&P
With a little luck the threat of a systemic collapse could bring a serious rise in POG.
If so, then why would CBS Marketwatch change over night ( 3/31/98 ) the recorded volume from that of the whole NYSE to only the Dow? But of course, no one here would know that, would they?
After the world financial collapse, gold will really shine.
Most borrowers won't be able to refund lenders and a deep depression might occur.However this won't destroy industrial capacity and the world will survive with a different financial system.
The stock of GOLD in the world grows at 2% per annuum so a monetary system based on GOLD is sustainable.
When the so called baby boomer will realise that their life savings are pure smoke some central banker will have to find real solutions so that the people think such a disaster don't strike again in their lifetime.
Thus not only CB won't sell GOLD , but even if they did , the entire world would be happy to buy it and more as it would be the base of the new financial system.
Thank you for providing the link to the article.
If we are to assume the outstanding gold loans are similar in countries
with larger reserves ( 10% ) ,then FV's account of the 8000 Tons would surely
have credence worth noting,yes?
Regarding the Swiss ann:They are still very good at timing.This comes
at the same time the EURO is being given wider support in Europe and just
prior to a major meeting next weekend.Tick Tock......Swiss Movement is
taking on a whole new meaning.:- )
LBG:Sorry to hear of your misfortune.Did you have insurance?; )
TSE G&S index off about 3% today on low volume.Profit taking etc.....
Oh...and what's that noise here?Sounds like someone throwing beer cans
from the peanut gallery.Keep ducking.They go away if they can't hit you.
I don't know how long it will take for us to dust ourselves off, and start over. Our infrastructure should be intact, and the information/computer revolution will give us some considerable resilience that other countries do not have. 'Cold fusion' seems to work as well, though other countries are more advanced in this area than we are. We have much to look forward to.
I do agree with you on one thing -- it would be better to get the underbrush clearing over with soon, as a delay another 10-15 years would only make things worse.
Here's to the human civilization, and our first manned expedition to the stars -- hopefully some of us will still be here to see them off.
There was once posted on this site a hugely hilarious yet effective treatment of currency exchange and commerce which used this method. I have a hardcopy somewhere and apologise for not being able to give credit to the author presently.
Having given consideration only yesterday to the extent both current and future global growth might assist in absorbing what's currently decribed as excess liquidity, I applied the "reduction technique" -- along with the necessary economic variables and gloabl trade doctrine -- to the American New Paradigm. The conclusion offered a rather startling image.
The image was that of a U.S. similar to nations ( or kingdoms ) that have appeared and reappeared throughout history. It was a view of centralised control over a shrunken commercial landscape where realtively few and extremely influential enterprises ordered the marketplace. It is a nation where the workforce is guaranteed sufficient and comfortable provision and many times offered grand indulgence. It is much the same in other regions of a world in economic equilibrium. Yet for all the indulgences it is never-the-less a nation of haves and have nots. People with and without wealth.
The entire national condition evolved from a renaissance of sorts. Though the renaissance was more of an outchop or disembarking of principles with none of the attendant vigor or national awakening -- elements with which one might normally associate a large-scale renewal. There are achievement boundaries which delimit the social organisation. The organised social territories are large. Few aspire and even fewer advance beyond the boundaries. Much sacrifice and commitment is required of those that do...by those who have not.
With a few twists, it is empire.
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1u.htm
Funds Finally Reward Patience
By LEWIS BRAHAM
Dow Jones Newswires
SmartMoney Interactive
NEW YORK ( Dow Jones ) --After so many years of dismal
investment returns, you have to wonder why anyone but a
masochist would invest in gold or gold mutual funds. But this
week the patience of gold bugs everywhere was finally
rewarded.
Gold funds finally topped the performance charts with a
hefty 7% return for the week, more than double that of any
other group. Year-to-date returns have been none too shabby
either at 22%, outdistancing even those fiery tech funds by
1.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, the price of gold bullion
continues to rise - from a low of $281 an ounce in January to
$315 an ounce today.
Why gold? Why now? Three little letters: EMU. Investors
anticipated that the European Monetary Union would be very
damaging to the gold market because rumors had circulated
that the central banks of Europe would unload most, if not
all, of their reserves, creating a glut in the market and driving
prices down. Now that the Italian central bank announced
that it e to hold reserves and the mood looks favorable for
two other key players, France and Germany, gold has come
back with a vengeance.
But EMU is only half the answer. On Tuesday Federal
Reserve Governor Roger Ferguson said that the U.S.
economy was on an unsustainable growth path and headed
for potentially serious inflation. "Either Asia will slow the
economy to something that is more sustainable or there will
have to be some Fed action that will do that," he said.
Since gold is the traditional hedge against inflation, investors
responded accordingly. "The fact that the Fed was
concerned about inflation spooked the stock market and
people bought gold as a safe haven," says James Turk,
strategic adviser for the Midas Fund, which was No. 4 of our
top five performing funds this week.
Some of Turk's top stocks are from Australia, where he says
deep discounts can be found. Two of his favorites, Plutonic
Resources Ltd. and Delta Gold, can only be purchased on
Australian exchanges. Both, however, he says are primary
candidates for takeover by American mining giant Homestake
Mining Co. ( HM ) , whose price has risen in the past three
weeks from 11 to 12 3/8. Turk is particularly bullish on
Homestake because he says its gold stores are not "hedged,"
meaning they are fixed at a certain level - a common practice
in the mining industry. In a rising market for gold, nonhedged
companies stand to make the greatest gains. ( Unfortunately,
the same also works in the reverse for a falling market. )
Another nonhedged favorite - Newmont Gold Co. ( NGC ) -
has risen since Monday from 31 7/8 to 35 1/8 today. "People
are chasing after these companies," says Turk.
Will the gold fever last? Turk thinks so: "The growth rate of
the nation's money supply hasn't been this high since the
1980s. That's a sure sign to him that inflation is in the
pipeline. And when inflation rises, so does gold." When
asked about Asia's woes and the OPEC squabble keeping a
lid on prices through cheaper imports, Turk says these are
temporary phenomena. Overvaluations in the stock market,
he says, will also steer more investors in gold's direction.
Other gold managers are not quite so bullish as Turk. "We've
heard talk of an overvalued stock market for a long time,"
says manager Bill Martin of American Century: Global Gold,
which is up a sizable 8.4% this week and 26% year-to-date.
"But gold stocks didn't respond at all last October during the
throes of a correction. We're going to have to see the whites
of inflation's eyes before we see a real rise in price - not just
rumors."
American Century's Martin is a bit more conservative in his
investment style, having invested 15% of his holdings in
mining giant Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , which hedges its
prices. Hedged stocks are safer, he says. But Barrick has a
special arrangement with its bank, whereby it can sell gold
through spot-deferred contracts, offering the best of both
worlds. "Barrick can sell at the spot price if prices are rising
quickly or defer to a contractually bound rate," Martin says.
"Some of the smaller mining companies don't have the
leverage in the industry to do that." In the past week, shares
of Barrick have risen from 21 7/16 to 23 5/8.
Three of this week's biggest losers invest heavily in China,
especially in Hong Kong - Fidelity Hong Kong and China,
Eaton Vance Greater China Growth and GAM: International.
Aside from the ongoing problems in Japan and the Pacific
Rim in general, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell 1.6% this
Tuesday after the gove rnment announced that the former
British territory was suffering from the worst unemployment
in three years.
Meanwhile, European funds continue to soar. Year-to-date
Pioneer Europe and Invesco International: European are up
31% and 30% respectively. If January's monetary union goes
as planned, the returns could be even greater a few years
down the road. For more information and analysis of
companies and mutual funds, visit SmartMoney Interactive at
Again In Latest Week
Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK -- As gold prices continue to shine, mutual funds investing in the
metal and its producers have mined the gains.
Gold-oriented funds, which have been top performers for the last few weeks,
again claimed the top spot during the week ended Thursday, according Lipper
Analytical Services Inc.
The sector's funds on average gained 6.93% during the week, trouncing
competitors such as Canadian funds, which were the second-best sector with a
2.43% gain. Rounding out the top five list were health and biotechnology funds,
which boosted 1.44% on average; science and technology funds, with a 1.4%
gain and natural resources funds, which also got a 1.4% jump.
Lately, gold funds' performance has made the sector one of the best performing
this year. European region funds now retain the top spot, though, with a 23.51%
bounce year to date.
As one might expect, the top-performing funds on the week were the gold
metalists. The Lexington Strategic Investments Fund jumped 11.85% to show
the most growth for the week. The Rydex: Precious Metals Fund gained 9.05%
and was followed by the Evergreen Precious Metals Fund, the American
Century: AC Global Gold Fund and the PIMCO Precious Metals Fund - all of
which gained about 8.5%.
Laggard sectors for the week included China region funds, with a 2.37% loss;
Pacific Ex-Japan funds; down 1.44%; utility funds, 1.27%; real-estate funds,
1.14%; and target maturity funds, a fixed-income sector recording a 0.9% loss
on average.
Most of the worst-performing equity funds on the week were those making bets
in Asia. The Matthews International: Korea Fund, which has spent a few weeks
as the top dog, was the single worst fund this past week, losing 5.7%, according
to Lipper. But certainly, this fund's investors are willing to excuse a down week,
for the fund has gained 35.1% year to date.
Similarly, the Amerindo Technology Fund lost 5.49%, but is up 16.98% for the
year, while the Tocqueville International Value Fund was down 3.5% for the
week but has risen 20% year to date.
However, the Guinness Flight Asia Fund and the US Global China Region
Opportunities Fund haven't had an upside in a while. With both losing more than
3% in the latest week, the Guinness Flight fund is down 8.12% so far this year
while the US Global fund has dropped 5.17%.
"1856 in OEDS: Bernard, assault and battery upon Wm. Croft, mulcted in the sum of twenty bucks."
So the use of 'buck' to refer to a dollar bill appears to precede even the printing of the first sawbuck, if Donald's date is correct, and I believe it is -- unless old Bernard really was fined twenty buckskins.
Someone mentioned that a buck was still worth a buck in 1880. But by 1896 the possibility that that would not always be so was in the popular literature, as there is also this entry:
"1896 F.P. Dunne, in Schaaf Dooley 130: D'ye mean to say that this buck is worth only fifty cents?"
be too exact here, but I definitely do not wish to deceive ) , and so I have had the pleasure to meet Milton Friedman and his brilliant wife, Rose. They spend part of the year in two places where I used to do the same.
He is of the generation of people who say what they think and think what they say. Very little bullshit.
( Gawd it is so hard to exist in this Age of Bullshit!!!! ) Oh, I know that money supply and velocity and all those arcane historicals mean nothing in this "Era of "Deflation"" but please, Dear Lord, let me be always an inflationist since that's what we always get anyway.
There's your problem. Find me one single person who objects to paying less for something he or she wants, yet all of these people deem "deflation" to be a bad thing. It's terminal confusion brought about by modern "economic" teaching.
First, inflation was defined as a rise in the stock of money. Then, the definition changes to being a rise in the stock of money in excess of the increased production of business. Now, it is defined as rising prices. The same is true of deflation, of course.
The absurdities compound from there. Imagine giving legal tender power to a government organization and then tasking them with "monetary stability"! Of course, there's no such thing as "monetary stability". But with honest money, the general direction of prices is always down, not up. I won't repeat the reasons why, you did a top notch job of that in your own post
When Isaac Newton set price of gold at 3.17s.10 1/2d in 1717, in the aftermath of the great equity bubbles, forcing mankind into a straitjacket seemed very wise, as it will doubtless be again. But as we see in our time, we will always be looking for escape routes so that we can accomodate our fascinating fads IN our time.
This is why gold suits both tendencies. It is a store of value in all times but is abandonned when creativity ( and folly ) warrant.
Primary goal of Europeans is to have a "believable" and strong EMU... they, therefore, need to back the EMU with significant amount of gold. This gold will come from European Communities CBs ( but some countries sold their gold, and we don't know who bought it ( at least I don't ) ... is it in still in Europe? or in part out of Europe? I got some, but those American Eagles! ) . As far as we know, we have no idea what Europe is really doing, right now, about gold accumulation or selling. Is it possible that they need more gold for the EMU? Is it possible that some countries, having lend their gold to the "EMU" will want to keep more gold of their own? If there is some need for more gold in the Europeean community, then they are probably trying to accumul
Gold has finally closed out side of its 2 year plus down trend channel. See chart and 4/10 post. Gold may come back and test the upper channel line but the horse is out of the barn and ready to run...it's time to buy gold. I expect an almost immediate upward move.
Don't rationalize where a market is going. Visualize where a market is going. The cash register will ring and ring often if you do!
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