Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:01 - ID#341312)
Thanks! Guess I've got something that eluded George Herbert Walker Bush: that "vision thing" as he called it. Hmmm, should I sell my metal before 01/01/00? Naaagonnaduid! Newsweek headline from 4th week in January 2000: "How Saddam Hussein collapsed our economy through electronic terrorism: A Newseek exclusive!" Just below that will be "Hot Wheels: are they safe for your kids? For the environment?" and "Borrow your way out of debt!"

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:02 - ID#31868)
The eyes
of truth are always watching

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:05 - ID#65118)
The Price Of GOLD, Does it really Matter???
I lurk this site daily and put my 2 cents worth in from time to time.
I just realized that I have 20 years until I will even need the money
that We have invested in physical over the past 5 yrs. Like many here
have posted, what kind of a world would we have if gold was at 50k?
I too, dont think it would be a pretty picture. However, this planet,
from a financial standpoint, is a very screwed up mess and getting alot
worse daily from what I can see. We ( wife and me ) view the purchase of
physical as "reasonable and prudent" amidst the potential kaotic future.
We don't see social security as any type of reality and would not ask
for any type of help from my government. ( It does really irritate me that
we support a social welfare system that we can't have access to unless
we are penniless )
Life is full of uncertianties and risk. Gold is simply a way of
reducing the risks of the future. We play both ends with the Stock Market
as of late making the money to purchase the Gold. Its truely money for
nothing these days.
The many posts lately here on Kitco have sent a very clear message!
Bail from paper while there is still time!!
Measure your wealth in POUNDS and OUNCES not certificates!
To all posters: Thanks for all the insight!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:36 - ID#339281)
Random comments FYI
The three wise men were astronomers, not astrologers.
Astronomy good - astrology bad.

Apostle Pauls quote "The love of money is the root of all evil", in Greek he really says "The love of silver ( philargyra ) is the root of all evil" ITim3:2 I think.

James 5:3 Your gold and silver are corroded. :- (

Go Gold.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:41 - ID#341312)
Nice poem! However, you are clearly thinking for yourself. Az ve al no, zis typ uv behavyr is ztrikli VERBOTEN! Ve vil be zair shortli for a rekondishuning zeshun. ( no offense intended towards present day Germans, unless, of course they're about 70-80 and used to be one of them! )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:45 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...Late Report...
Owing to a busier than expected schedule today, I am only now releasing my thoughts on gold.

First, I had a chance to communicate at length with a buddy out East in the invesment field. He is warning me that the recent, firmly established negative beta or contrarian activity in gold stocks is now being noticed in a big way by major Wall Street firms. In other words, gold stocks continue to show good strength in the face of severe industrial equities weakness. Initially, this is NOT good for gold. Why? Because, as long as Wall Street has been able to maintain its sheer verticality and hence the daily distraction of enormous profits, it has not given a hoot for what is transpiring in the gold market. However, as evidenced today, with Wall Street stalling out in a bad way ( especially in the tech sector ) , naturally, once again, Wall Street is looking for a scapegoat. Of course, gold remains the favorite scapegoat of the New Paradigm crowd. Starting tomorrow, it is almost a certainty that a new spate of anti-gold agitprop will be launched by The Street. Obviously, the negative propaganda will center around speculations concerning the imminent EURO. Given that goldbugs are now confirming the positive good news concerning gold reserves to support the new currency...and given that this new currency will represent a substantive alternative to U.S. dollar hegemony...and given that goldbugs are drawing very positive psychological benefits in the knowledge of these facts...then Wall Street's main attack should likely focus around the scare tactic that the EURO will NOT come into being at all owing to irreconciliable differences between France & Germany. You should expect this canard to be disseminated by various media in a broad, grand scale...and hopefully you will not succumb to the fears Wall Street would want to engender with such a false report. Remember one thing: although the incarnation of a gold-supported EURO is obviously a good thing for gold, a return to the ante status quo of disparate European currencies is equally as good ( if not better ) . Why? Because one reason European countries have often favored high gold reserves in the past is owing to the great number of national currencies in the region. In the entrenched, somewhat paranoid European psychology, there is a common feeling that gold represents an historic, pandemic currency. No matter what evils might befall an individual European currency, good or bad, Gold has always proven to be a good preserver of wealth...a genuine wealth king in the region. So, even in the unlikely event that the European Union were not to manifest, it is in no way, shape or form a negative for Gold. Repeat. It is NOT a negative for gold.

Again, the major good news about the gold market today was the positive, irrefutable verification of a negative beta for gold stocks. In the face of tech stock disaster ( and if you take away the postive DISNEY effect on the DOW, the effective DOW disaster ) , gold stocks rallied at the end of the day. Such strength augurs extremely well for gold stock performance today.

Yet, I must underscore that the most optimistic adjective one can use to describe gold's performance today is "encouraging." Gold volumes were moderately light with most junior XAU stocks showing little if any activity at all. This is a good thing as it indicates selective buying and a complete absence of euphoria in the gold market.

Out of respect to TYoung's wishes, I will not make a firm call on the general equities markets other than to say that I believe today was just a small taste of what is just around the corner. The mutual index funds favored several key DOW stocks today ( Disney, Compaq, and IBM, in particular ) and, in doing so, were unable to lend any significant support to their various NASDAQ darlings. I believe the mutual index funds are concentrating upon the DOW now since they now realize that if the overall equities bubble should burst, it will be a DOW-inspired debacle rather than a NASDAQ-inspired event.

The Kitco Barometer was subdued today with greater optimism developing. Yet, the wariness of the beleaguered goldbugs persists and I do not believe that it will completely dissipate until gold breaks firmly over 340 an ounce. When this event manifests, then I think you will see a remarkable change in overall psychology on this forum. At that point, I also expect an enormous exponential rush of gold short activity and propaganda. If goldbugs can survive this impending crucible, then the New Gold Paradigm I have alluded to in the past will be irrevocably, firmly established. At that point, the Sky itself will be the limit as non-goldbugs will be attracted to gold investment as camels drawn to water.

With respect to the Precious Metals Relativity Index, Palladium remains the star of the entire ball game. It's amazing strength cannot help but pull all other metals out of their historical malaise as they seek to re-establish historical relativistic positions. Moreover, I think Russia is learning a valuable and concrete capitalistic lesson late in life and that lesson centers around the withholding of commodity supply. I am most certain that Russia will soon utilize the same withholding technique upon its future gold sales. There is little doubt that this one country will provide a significant impact upon the global gold market. Keep your eyes open for any imminent announcements.

Finally, I apologize to those who find aspects of this report to be repetitive or "the same old, same old." However, there are fundamental notions I present in this report that I believe must be hammered into the
minds of various Kitcoites over and over again until, at last, they "get it." God only knows that gold shorts have spent the past two years repeating an all too familiar litany of scare tactics ad nauseum. It is necessary to de-program many goldbugs of these gold short brainwashing tactics via an equally compelling and antithetical form of pro-gold agit-prop.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:51 - ID#431263)
As long as gold stays above $300, give or take $5.00, gold is in a wave 3 advance. When you consider gold's upside over the next five+ years vs. its limited downside, why would anyone be foolish enough to sell anything gold-related? We goldbugs have got to start thinkin' like the buy-the-dipster yuppies if we're ever gonna' make any money at this game! There's an old German proverb, "ALLER ANFANG IST SCHWER!", "every beginning is hard!" All bull markets start out tentatively with a lot of second-guessing, buyer's remorse, guilt, suffering, anxiety and pain--but once the thing get's going and the profits start to build and pyramid, the pain and the angst soon depart and greed and glee soon take over as we realize the reward for taking an early position--yes,for being savvy, smart, patient and convicted! There's a reason why 90% of the investing public lose money tradin' commodities--it's called lack of discipline! When gold sells through its 200 day moving average, SELL! When gold soars through its 200 day moving average, BUY! And don't do anything if it stalls to consolidate for a while either above or below the 200 day moving average! This is the gold market we've all been waitin' for since March of '96! Get into it early, average in over time, hang on for dear life and ENJOY THE RIDE BACK TO OVERVALUATION! THEN GET YOUR ARSCH OUT! One thing for sure, we're a heck of a lot closer to the beginning of this big gold bull than we are to the end of it! So what if gold backs and fills for a couple of weeks or months so long as the trend lines stay intact and sentiment remains bearish! This is normal and is to be expected! The key is to STAY LONG! BUY AND HOLD! Don't sweat the day-to-day fluctuations and watch your trend lines for a change in market direction! And if you start to get sweaty palms at these lofty levels : ) then buy yourself a couple of gold puts! Sure it feels lonely at the beginning of a major bull market--if it wasn't lonely we'd not be in one! That's why we're all on this site--mutual support and friendship toward our mutual goal of ridin' a major gold bull market as far as she'll take us! Let's stay focused on that despite our many personal differences and idiosyncracies and Kitco will truly be the ark which carries the faithful to the top of the flood of woes about to engulf the world of paper!

HERR SHAREFIN AND HERR HEDGEHOG--Had a great day with LIHIR today. UP 3 5/8 ( 11.07% ) ! What's happenin' to her on the night session down under? Look forward to your report!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:58 - ID#263379)
@ Farfel get more self absorbed and self obsessed with each passing day. Wall St.'s gonna attack Gold as a scapegoat? Cause they're diappointed with the flattening after mere 30% gains in a few months time?

I hardly think anyone on Wall St. will be giving a rats ass about Gold one way or the other tomorrow Mr "F" word. Gold is now and will remain inthe foreseeable future, a minor part of global economics. YOU may think all kinds of Wall St. types are fretting about what Gold will do on up/down days in stocks. THEY could barely care less. You need a serious reality're drifting further and further off into your own little world. Get a grip dude!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 00:59 - ID#284255)
LIHIR down 13c to $2.62
A bit of profit taking going on in OZ today.
Fututes SPI falling in expectation of a down day in the US.

For any with some spare time.
Here is my collection of 'Net" urls.
It is mainly market links with economics and Y2K.
Beware there are over 1800 urls here.
Not for the faint hearted but for the enthusiast.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:04 - ID#340302)
@LIBERTY (aka LGB)...Thanks for the various compliments, my friend.'s good to hear from you again.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:06 - ID#20135)
From FWN's floor coverage today.


Meanwhile, gold futures moved lower late in the
morning, but in the afternoon short covering set in and the
market eventually settled just off the pit-trade high for
the day, one floor source said.
June gold took out support that he put at $314.60,
dipping as far as $313.80.
"We turned right around and moved back up gradually for
the rest of the day," one floor source said. "The market
went out pretty strong here. The market still looks pretty
good and I'd be a buyer on dips, if it holds up this


Gold 36,000
Silver 17,000
H.G. Copper 20,000

silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

-407,807 5,088 33,498,890
-45,394 -5,088 55,305,444
-453,201 0 88,804,334

FWN: 155534 GMT

COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

A quote from Arden seems appropriate this evening:

"No change in eligible comex gold stocks - its interesting to note that as the yellow metal rises, that there is no rush to sell into it by increasing the eligible stocks. In the past six months or more, each time we had a rally the eligible numbers would jump up just before the price turned down."

Tired must turn in to dream the golden dreams ... and palladium ones too.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
It's nice to know what to expect.

"Perennial as the grass."

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:13 - ID#304282)
You are the kind of investor I am going to enjoy watching get killed when this thing tanks. Just for your smart ass comments, please buy the dips and never buy gold.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:15 - ID#340302) final note...RE: BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD...
...I hope you were able to take note of Battle Mountain's very positive 1st quarter report today. It represents a remarkable turnaround at one of the largest senior N.A. gold producers and completely invalidates the recent downgrade on the company issued by First Boston/Credit Suisse a few weeks ago. As I pointed out at that time, I expect the downgrade was most likely issued in order to ensure that 7 1/2 dollar call options on Battle Mountain ( expiring that very same week ) would expire worthless.

I do believe that Battle Mountain will figure prominently in the upcoming wave of gold company consolidations. It is certainly a potential takeover target.

Why do I draw your attention to these facts?

Simply because today, many people regard Battle Mountain as something of a bellwether for the entire XAU. Unlike Barrick, it is essentially a pure gold play. Should Battle Mountain be acquired, this little event will cause a sharp uptick in the XAU and elicit even greater invesment activity in the gold sector.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:18 - ID#263379)
@ "Liberty_A" and "Tricky"
As long as I'm feeling contentious tonight.... "LibertyA"... why don't you think up your own handle and stop using mine? Thanks....

"Tricky"...I don't know just how it is I'm going to get "killed" in my investments....since I've made over 1200% in Equities in the best bull market in history, and now diversified those profits into cash, and precious metals.....while Gold bugs have gone right down the * drain for 2 decades in the worst loser investment of our lifetimes......

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:21 - ID#298259)
Same old same old...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:23 - ID#344308)

look out.....for the BIG break-out....

the us$ is fixing to tank....brbwtus$

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:27 - ID#20135)
Looking like a fun Friday in Moscow...
Friday April 24, 12:59 am Eastern Time

Official warns Russian Duma against dissolution

MOSCOW, April 24 ( Reuters ) - A top official in Russia's State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said on Friday there was a 70 to 30 chance the chamber would
oppose the Kremlin's choice of prime minister and be dissolved.

``I must say that today we are closer then ever before to the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and I put the chances of the State Duma being dissolved at
70-30,'' first deputy speaker Vladimir Ryzhkov told NTV television just hours before the Duma was due to vote on Sergei Kiriyenko's candidacy.

Booming trade -- stimulated by the Asian currency crisis -- had exacerbated problems with an imbalance of containers, the lines said.>

``The westbound trade from Asia to North Europe has boomed with demand outstripping supply,'' they said.

The 15 members of the Asia Westbound Rate Agreement, part of the Far Eastern Freight Conference, also reaffirmed their commitment to impose a rate increase of a
minimum of $150 per 20 foot container and $300 per 40 foot container from July 1.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:28 - ID#263379)
@ Frustrated

Yep..."Same old"...same old self delusional tendencies around here.... Gold will go to $60,000 in the coming market "crash", as Equities drop to 5 or 10% of their former values, and then we'll all be vindicated for our 2 decades of stupidity.......... You can dress up a pig every day and tell me it's a princess but I'm still gonna call it a pig...sorry.... ( not that my precious St. Gaudens are pigs mind that Golden glint.........just glad I have 10 times as many of them as I would if I'd listened to the "pre" Kitcoites of 18 years ago....Granville et know, all the same messages we see here on this board each day....Dow bubble topping at 1200 points and all that....... )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:29 - ID#39971)
Got Gold?

Gold loans may leave Bank with bad debts!

Excerpted from "The Guardian", Thursday April 23 1998 - Dan Atkinson

Speculators and dealers who have borrowed British gold reserves worth

as much as 300 million British Pounds Sterling may be unable to repay

the Bank of England, industry sources warned last night...

One senior industry source warned that some of the nation's gold was

now in jewellery form, hanging around the necks of overseas consumers,

and could not be reclaimed in a crisis...

...the price has moved up 12% since January and was rising again

yesterday. Now speculators... might have to buy more expensive bullion

bars elsewhere to cover their debts. Were significant numbers unable to

do so the resulting turmoil could threaten London's pivotal position in the

international gold market...

One source warned that some bullion banks might be particularly

vulnerable, as they were in the position of borrowing short-term from the

Bank to lend longer-term to speculators, jewellery manufacturers and

others. He added that all involved in borrowing from central banks had

behaved as if the price would drop forever and that the loans could

always be repaid in cheaper gold.

It is not known what proportion of Britain's 573 tonnes of gold is on

loan, but the international average is about 10% of reserves.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:33 - ID#344308)

the us$....setting-up for the BIG nose dive...

hop on board......we're heading south..physics dictates the
dollars demise...cycles....chaos and flux....they've always
been, and always will be, a part of YOUR life...paper has run
the gauntlet of easy money....time to pay the piper...the temp
has hit 451*......and you KNOW what happens at 451F.


the gold options are slowly edging up in price...who has their tickets to the show???


(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:35 - ID#220325)
I MIS-READ his information and the corrected form is Silver started a wave 5 advance from the 5.60 area. "If this is correct the minimum objective is 7.60 and the Max about 8.75 but could be higher as much as 11.00 before another major correction. BETTER STILL SEE HIS ORIGINAL POST. Sorry APH I was in too much of a hurry trying to make sure others did not miss the post.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:37 - ID#284255)
Millennium bug might disrupt satellite system

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:37 - ID#340302)
@HEPMEMONEY...Congratulations....all Kitcoites thank you...
...because you have just joined OLD GOLD and A.GOOSE in discovering yet another fundamental piece of the puzzle which once solved will send gold soaring into the heavens.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:42 - ID#298259)
Japan yen policy helped trigger Asia woes...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:45 - ID#255151)
THOUGHTS! from the Kitco Bar&Grill

Well, on the bright side, no one has wrung their hands over the imminent demise of Kitco. Still seems as raucous, educational, and entertaining as always. Discussions have been about precious metals, righteous anger, and lawsuits. In other words: Gold, frank incense, and Murr!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:46 - ID#284255)
Year 2000 Problem Could Mean Lights Out At Some Companies
"Power companies have thousands of embedded chips in their equipment, and the fact is that most of them will not be tested before year 2000 problems begin to affect them," said Kent Morgan, director of marketing at Saver, a provider of alternative power-supply systems. "There is a real possibility that we are going to have blackouts throughout North America."
UPS's could well fail.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:48 - ID#39971)
F* Thanks
Stick around.Lots more to come as these and similar reports leak out to

the public. ( us ) yer golden battle stations.

May your long jib draw.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:53 - ID#284255)
Everyone must prepare for disaster, expert says "Doom and Gloomer"
Although he tempers his warnings with humor, Yourdon wears the badge of ``doomsday prophet'' with honor. His recently published book Time Bomb 2000 details the potential disasters such as power blackouts and banking chaos.

Keep cash on hand, as much as one month's expenses, as a hedge against banking disruptions. Stockpile food in case the retail food distribution channels are severed.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:54 - ID#257148)
Nice One!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:58 - ID#255304)
It appears you are at spot on Kitoc but are long or short on Murr!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 01:58 - ID#266105)

Money is aiways there but the pockets change; it is not
in the same pockets after a change, and that is all there
is to say about money.

- Gertrude Stein

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:04 - ID#413131)
No doubt you are wiser than many of us here. Too bad you haven't learned to be more sensitive to those less fortunate than yourself. Maybe gold will soar and we goldbugs will have our day in the sun. But even if it doesn't IDCIBM. Even if I'm wrong and you continue to make all the money, there's one thing I know for sure. If you die before me, I will be richer than you.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:15 - ID#57232)
Bank of England missing some gold?
HepMeMoney: Great post! This was expected, but your post is the first news of such events. As Farfel notes, there are establishement types that do not want gold to rise, but there are now others who support the Euro who have a different agenda. The period of CB bank sales is over, and all of those bank gold loans must be returned. I wonder what sort of leverage the Bank of England, ( or any other CB ) has to ensure that their gold is returned. How will they explain this to the British people, if the loans are defaulted? What would the American people do if they found out the Fort Knox gold had been loaned out, and was now jewelry in some other country?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:15 - ID#255151)
aurator, 2BR02B?, aztec

Appreciate the kind thoughts! Just doing my duty. One last thought before retiring for the night. For those hesitating to buy their Gold-- If you stand around with your hands in your pockets, you'll merely feel foolish. But if those pockets have holes in them, you'll feel nuts. er, Go Gold!

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:28 - ID#24135)
O ye of little FAITH
To all anxious Rangy Holders.
Rangy just got a mini windfall . It had loaned about
11 million rand to Dbn-deep. In december last year,
the directors agreed that Dbn-deep would repay the loan
in a new issue ( 1.4 mill shares ) of dbn-deep stock.
So everybody says there goes Kebble again printing
stock like printing rubles .. Only thing is the PRICE
of the settlement was the prevailaing price AT THE TIME-
IE - December 8, 1997 .. which was 7.8 rands.
So Randgold gets back 1.4 mill shares of deeps stock
( worth 1.4 * 17.8 rand = 25 mill rand ) to settle a debt
of 11 million rand ..
This never happens when I lend people money.
Rangy has not been my top pick .. Harmony was
.. but now Harmony has gone up 3 times .. time to
start looking elsewhere .. Deeps are moving now ..
and Ive bought some.. Rangy holds Deeps and some
Harmony ( I think ) . Rangold is a very cheap way
of buying deeps ..

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:33 - ID#255304)
This site's collective efforts, some more than others, have, do and will make a better place for a few to live in. Farfel is right on the mark with the ideology of this group solving the "bigger picture" puzzle.
When the foundation crumbles lets just hope they don't confiscate Bart!
Keep those search engines running !
Nite all.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:35 - ID#257148)
Is son of Crusty still holding the faith of the GREAT SPIKE DOWN ?

Cos I is.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:37 - ID#233209)
@John Disney__A

Well, I was hoping you'd post tonight!

Does this mean you don't think Kebble will be bad for RANGY? I am probable maistaken, but I thought Mr. Kebble was not to be trusted? Or is it just that a rising tide will lift all boats?

By the way, l found a terrible lacking in the guide books on the Cape when I cruised the book store today - I guess I'll just have to look for my self.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:39 - ID#57232)
Turmoil returning to Kitco toninght?
All: We have had several days of useful dialog without too much disruption. All posters should remember to be respectful of others even when they disagree. Boasts of so much personal gain that further investment is not necessary is not the best way to begin a conversation. We all must remember that wealth does not buy happiness, and that investing in gold or buying weapons for individual self defense does not protect us individually from future civil unrest. Would the American Revolution have been won if John Paul Revere or Patrick Henry had acted only for themselves?

The only effective way to prepare for the future is to work together, as separately none of us can stand -- regardless of how wealthy or well defended we think we are.

'United we stand, divided we fall'

Real wealth comes from the sharing of knowledge, and working together, regardless of how daunting the odds appear to be.

Personally, I would rather be designing interstellar spacecraft contemplating moonbase designs, and preparing to explore the next great unknown. But -- it seems that we must postpone our destiny and solve our societal and economic problems first.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:44 - ID#57232)
SA Golds looking good, just as you said they would be!
John Disney: You have my thanks for your persistently upbeat posts about SA gold.

G'Nite all!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:46 - ID#233209)
@John Disney__A

How many mines is Kebble "into"/ "control" ?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:49 - ID#284255)
When bug hits PC windshield
If your computer's old enough, the year 2000 problem will affect the hardware as well as the software. Older machines have incorrect date information hard-wired into them. These machines will enter the next century thinking time has gone in reverse.

There are millennium bugs in some programs written for the Mac.

Hep Me Money
Could you please provide the url for the 'gold loan' story.
Thanks in advance.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:56 - ID#257148)
SOme words have been echoing in this cellar i call a mind, when I spoke them here, I thought nothing of them, but they were picked up, by tolerant1, I think, and i found them reverberating today--

I said, that after the Edgecumbe earthquake, "the people of the town organised themselves...."For me this was an unimportant detail in the speach. It was picked up and echoed by your fellow Americans as being unusual. Thing is, while it is reasonbaly easy for me to envision americans in shelters with hungry neighbours, once friends, in the cross-hairs of an Uzzi, I just can't see the same thing here. It is called being a NZer. I don't want to say we don't have schisms in our society, but we do generally have a tremendous amount of goodwill to our fellows who find themselves in harsh circumstances. Just can't see it.

Darndest thing, "What profiteth a man if he gains the world. but loses his soul?" was also echoing in my mental catacombs today, at about the time you posted. ( I was hearing it in the King James version! )
Hey, hey, you, you, Gerroff my star!

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 02:59 - ID#24135)
There's no such thing as a bad Kebbel
More on Dbn Deeps
As I said, I started buying deeps a few days back
when all offers for Harmony script disappeared.
But before that, you may recall that ( in addition to
buying "b" options ) I had been buying DD PREFERRED
stock which I got in dribs and drabs for about a 10/15 %
premium over the ordinary.
The preferred was to pay a 20 % dividend.
Well as an example of how the Kebbles HATES to part
with CASH ( it's the old Jack Benny joke .. not that
he's cheap .. it's just that he has short arms and
deep pockets ) .....
Deeps is now going to convert all preferred stock to
ordinary stock and GIVE each preferred shareholder
a free DD option ( value 7.8 rand ) I get back for the
preferred ( I bought at between 11 and 12 ) one ordinary
share worth 17.5 rands Plus 7.8 worth of options.
How can you dislike a guy when he does that for
you ??

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:04 - ID#24135)
Kebbel is OK .. (when things go well)
for SWP1.
You can trust him .. but like all visionaries
there may be some problems if the vision goes
bad. Also as you can see from prior post .. he
probably buys his groceries with DD script.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:10 - ID#233209)
@John Disney__A

I have Drooy and have the opportunity to buy more of same or whatever. I think I wait bit longer to buy physical ( I am nervous about waiting though ) and am trying to decide waht to buy? Could you say more about PSGQF - I missed the beginning of that story. Would RANGY be a begtter bet in your opinion?

Thanks for all you analysis and postings.

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:14 - ID#24135)
Son of Crusti
For Salty ..
Son of Crusti persists in view of wave down
to come ... He is very good normally .. this
one may cost him except he is okay on sp wave
down in parallel.
I am going with the flow .. and am limiting
time horizon my own forecast with like what's
for lunch today.
Bail out/buy back Harmony was expensive. I
hate EW forecasting .. almost always right
in retrospect but only gives you trouble before
the fact.
Ive never thought EW really worked for gold
price forecasting because of currency effects
plus overiding major factors like euro backing
for example.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:18 - ID#257148)
Mac software that has a 2000 bug is ineptly programmed, and very easy to fix.. the Mac OS is Y2K compliant, and has always been. There may be a problem in 2084 with the Mac O/S, but I guess there is still time.

Found out last night that NT 4.0 is not Y2K enabled, and neither will be NT 5.0 only the final release of NT 5.0 will be compliant. ( yeah, sure )

A Microsoft Windows NT Server Market Bulletin indicates it is not Year 2000 compliant. Microsoft recommends deploying NT 4.0 now, testing NT 5 Beta 2 next summer and upgrading to NT 5 next year.

That great philanthropist, Billy Gates, may be running a little close to the wind,.

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:21 - ID#24135)
for swp1
What is PSQGF ??? I missed that story
altogether .. Am I on the wrong side of
the looking glass again ?? what's going
on here anyway ?? Could we start over
and I cant do abbreviations other than
very simple ones like AM and PM

(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:33 - ID#257148)
More TLAs ---that's Three Letter Acronyms

PSGQF is the company formerly known as PGU

(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:37 - ID#284255)
Aurator over the Tasman
Mac's have one MAJOR glitch like all computers.
They need a constant supply of sparks coming down the line.

I'm sure when the Auckland CBD went down it didn't choose between the two. ) :-^}}}}}

But every EMU has a silver lining. Analysts suggest the amount of code involved in implementing monetary union will be eight times that of Y2K. With a second wave of countries scheduled to join EMU a few years after the first, that should keep the computing industry busy well into the next decade. Heavy computing budgets and trebles all round.

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:40 - ID#24135)
A large African antelope ??
For Salty
Ok I give up.. What's a PGU ??

(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:42 - ID#284255)
How come some of your posts have copyright's, and others don't.
Is this a Mac trick.

The thin foils flicker and flash
The strokes ring clear
And a face gleams settled and strong,
And one was wet with fear.

Parry and hard lightning thrust
A step advanced and again
That steady punishment
The gasp of pain.

The blue smoked air was warm and tense,
The watchers silent all
Only the ring and the clash of blades,
The gasp and the soft footfall.

Till nerve and wrist betrayed the will
And the blue steel ripped and tore
And the bright blood stained alike the flesh
And the name the loser bore.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:44 - ID#419147)
some Russian news you probably know already
Russia licenced first commercial bank - Unieksimbank - for gold and silver export. As you know this has been one of the most centralised branches of economy. The producers had to sell the metals to CB so far, for considerably lower prices than London fix. The result has been significant reduction in gold production. Official numbers ( e.g. organized crime not included ) :
1995 142 tonnes
1996 122-124 tonnes
1997 106 tonnes

The prognosis for this year are between 100-120 tonnes of yellow metal.

Is Russia liberizing it's gold market to create a competitor for LBMA????


(Fri Apr 24 1998 03:44 - ID#257148)
gno, PGU is gnot a gnu, it is an 'orse, Pegasus Gold on the NASDQ, wings have been clipped.

BTW, am thinking of investing in some horse flesh soon

John Disney__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:05 - ID#24135)
Salty .. The last time I looked at..
Pegasus, I laughed so hard that I injured
myself temporarily.. I would buy rangy before
pegasus. I would buy beans before pegasus.
I GNU all the time it was Pegasus.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:07 - ID#230376)
Good day...

from the chilly Midwest...Thought I'd share a poem for the "old timers'' on Kitco Klub today...

The Golden Years

The Golden Years are here at last
I cannot see, I cannot pee
I cannot chew, I cannot screw
My memory shrinks, my hearing stinks
No sense of smell, I look like hell
The Golden Years have come at last
The Golden Years can kiss my ass

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:12 - ID#257148)
Auckland, city of sails, volcanoes and the perrtiest women in the world
G'day mate, how's it goin? As for the copyright thing, I just forget.

The power crisis proves:

1 How resilient we can be.
2 How little we need to congregate in Highrise city blocks. ( A Pavlova Paradise )
3 How inventive we can be
4 How tolerant we can be
5 How starved for crisis the International Media is
6 How much the aforesaid IM inflates a story
7 How Mercury Energy has been railroaded by accountants
8 Neither a Mac nor a DOSBOX can run without power.
9 When the America's cup is run in Auckland in the year 2000, noone will get on a plane to Oakland Ca. by mistake. ( It happened the other way around a couple of years ago-- two hours from L.A., our hapless inadvertant american tourist asks the waitress how long a 20 minute flight will take, and why are we flying over ocean? )

this joke was posting by GoodOldBoy@kitco 2 spins ago and was on the Business pages of the NZ Herald this am ( 12 hours ago )

If there's anyone listening from "Granny" Herald... Why have you taken the gold price off the frong page? Why not ask the Reserve Bank questiona about NZ gold holding, well, lack of it. And how come they charge so much for their "Collectors" bullion coins???

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:19 - ID#257148)
frong page? sheesh.

I hasten to add, the horseflesh I am contemplating is not listed as a mythical beast on NASDAQ, though I hope she flies around the track when she grows, if i buy.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:31 - ID#230376)
@ Aurator...soon to appear @ a Derby/Darby near you..

The Witch of the North ( My bride of 35 yrs ) and I have raised/raced horses for 30 of those. Good luck to you !!! Next one will be named "GO GOLD"

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:37 - ID#230376)
a little eerie...

Seems everyone predicting gold to peak @320 or so and fall back to 297 or so ... look @ Pd yesterday

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:41 - ID#230376)
It's a right wing plot...

Anyway..Pd hit a high of 320.55 and fell back to 296.55 in yesterday's session. Precursor???????

(Fri Apr 24 1998 04:51 - ID#328159)
@sharefin Apr 24, 2:49
Bank of England gold loan excerpt:

The Guardian is at: ( don't expect to find it there for free, it was excerpted from the real paper around 18:00 Kitco time Apr. 23. )

More details will be added later if the paper hasn't been chucked.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 05:02 - ID#257148)
Good to see ya back.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 05:13 - ID#253418)
Here we go again
Gold and silver starting weaker in London - anybody know what's up. Suppose we'll get the drop into the NY opening we always seem to get. Hope oil can hold up or we may get a real deflationary whiff here. All nibleness aside, silver has itself right into a triangle. I have rarely seen these type of things resolve themselves initally on the upside. Open interst in Silver has been dropping. I'm affraid a stock market sell off could really drag silver down - to at least $5.85.

Move me back into the Wary camp Farfel. I thought we might get a litttle different action which would suggest a sharp move up through 317 tonight and Friday in NY but it looks like a repeat of the same pattern of the lower opening in NY but today I don't think a rally of any significance will ensue. Strange for a Friday after a good week but this stuff looks like it wants a rest with silver looking particulalry vulnerable. r

(Fri Apr 24 1998 05:15 - ID#39828)
JTF it is gonna be like whow!
When they figure out that high velocity space travel is just like
surfin man, just like nature. Look out here comes a great set.
Dont rush the first one.! SG1 yooooooooooooo.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 05:24 - ID#39828)
oh yeah
just patented it......oops, lips are sealed. dont need that taste
of salt water.just let me go deaf.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:25 - ID#248180)
Euro - FT London AM

Top Stories 

Bundestag signs D-Mark's death warrant
The lower house of Germany's parliament signed the death warrant of the D-Mark yesterday when, in a historic vote, it authorised Helmut Kohl, the chancellor, to approve its replacement by a new currency uniting 11 European nations....more

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:30 - ID#248180)
Palladium - Russia
Palladium at Fresh High Fix

LONDON -- ( Reuters ) Palladium reached a fresh all-time-high fix on Thursday as dealers eyed the Russian lower house of parliament's looming vote on a new prime minister as critical to the start of Russian exports.

The white precious metal fixed at $390.00 an ounce spot in the morning, up on Wednesday afternoon's $380.00, having begun the week with a $324.00 fix and the year near $200.00.

The Russian Duma is due on Friday to vote on whether to accept Sergei Kiriyenko, the preferred choice of President Boris Yeltsin, as prime minister.

Yeltsin's health problems this year, his sacking of the entire government in March and subsequent problems winning deputies' backing for his nominee have contributed to political uncertainty and a halt to platinum group metal ( PGM ) exports.

Many palladium consumers and investors had bargained on a short delay to Russian supplies, perhaps until April, only to see delivery schedules unravel.

Dealers said if the Duma rejected Kiriyenko, thereby causing its own dissolution and snap general elections, that would only add to delays before the world's major palladium supplier began its 1998 exports.

"It is widely seen that without approval that shipments could be delayed into the third quarter -- particularly if elections are called," brokers GNI said in a report.

Friday's Duma vote coincides with the expiry of the palladium spot April futures contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, a factor which has further fueled price rises this week as those holding short positions sought physical metal to square their books.

Tokyo trade on Thursday boosted most yen-based palladium contracts by their 36-yen-per-gram session limits, with spot April palladium up 199 yen at 1,665 yen, a record high closing price for the nearby contract.

Traders said the April contract could move yet higher, as investors still hold short positions which must be covered before the contract expires.

High prices and lease rates above 200 percent have virtually halted trade in physical palladium, with end-users worried over how far palladium prices will go, traders said.

"If this continues, the whole market is going to die, including spot trading, until deliveries take place," said one London dealer.

Another said there was plenty of metal around, it was just that prices were deterring potential customers.

Palladium is used mainly in car catalysts, which cut vehicle exhaust pollution, in electronic circuit components and dentistry, all of which face spiraling prices for the second year in a row because of Russian supply delays.

Last year, when bureaucratic wrangling halted Russian PGM exports for six-months, futures markets in New York and Tokyo struggled to cope according to Standard Bank London's 1997 review.

"On certain occasions in 1997 when the markets were needed most, they were not effectively available," Standard said.

London, which is the only international physical market for palladium, reacted "in the traditional ways" according to Standard, increasing bid/offer spreads, lease rates and ceasing to quote forwards.

"The crucial fact, however, is that spot trading continued throughout and you could buy or sell metal in the London market at a price," it said, adding that business also remained possible on the twice-daily fix. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:30 - ID#254201)
My 10 year old daughter is interested in taking riding lessons. Any recommendations in the far NW suburbs. You can E me at

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:41 - ID#185448)
The dispute between French and Germany could be settled in an elegant way, which in fact has been reported month ago as a marginal glosse in several newspapers:
Wim Duisenberg becomes president in the beginning, and as a split of the ECB-presidency is not intended - and would be vetoed - and is put on the retired list in some years, as he is already aged somewhat 63. No party looses face and the French get their man, Jean-Claude Trichet, in office, whos name means Card-sharper, Cheater" in the tongue of the anglo-saxons.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:44 - ID#39828)
A United States military plane carrying enriched uranium
from the former Soviet republic of Georgia for reprocessing
in Britain has touched down at Kinloss R-A-F base in

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:48 - ID#248180)
FTSE 100 - Down (-108.1)
FTSE 100:  5790. -108.1  at 11:27 on 24/04/98

Bully Beef
(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:50 - ID#259282)
sometimes New York is contrary to London.
Go 5 bucks GOLD. Oh the chat last night seemed to be a pissing contest.We all know who can do that the farthest and He's not here. ( Until he gets a new server and address )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:54 - ID#26793)
Yasuda Trust has 200 billion yen loss under new accounting method

(Fri Apr 24 1998 06:57 - ID#26793)
Chinese profits plunging as inventories mount.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:00 - ID#26793)
Asian banks in desperate need of dollars.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:04 - ID#26793)
Fed interest rate increase appears more likely.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:08 - ID#26793)
Global deflation will be a threat if the Fed tightens monetary policy.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:14 - ID#26793)
This gold mine produced 146,250 ounces in the first quarter.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:16 - ID#185448)
European Stock-markets heading south.
Live at:

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
Placer, Vengold, Lihir, Southern gold news

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:21 - ID#26793)
Battle Mountain news

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:24 - ID#26793)
Swiss National Bank gold news (subject to voter approval)

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:27 - ID#238295)

Thanks so much for that post re: Bank of England gold loan defaults! This may be just the tip of the iceberg. Sounds like a lot of these guys spent too much time reading Andy Smith's drivel. I feel their pain and hope it soon turns into real agony.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Japanese banks face a dilema, not a deathblow.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:32 - ID#253418)
Could be explosive
Could be explosive all the way around today if the old Duma rejects the PM nomination. Oil could get a life, PL and PD well they are already discounting no metal till September, gold could get over 317 and silver old slow silver cound it manage to get over 6.35 That's pretty optomistic I realize, and I really suspect the communists will save the day and by a vote or two cofirm the nomination and we'll be spared any fire workds.

The stock market will probably turn on the good news that Russia's government ( as it iis ) is still operating and the damage won't be so bad. NASDAQ 100 on Golbex is off 625 points - that's like 5%, I must have that wrong, its probably only 1/2 percent just a little weaker than the S&P Globex. Just got a little excited.

Keep me in the wary camp Farfel. I think the Duma will elect to keep its jobs and the metals will end the week, ah, weakly...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:33 - ID#26793)
Russia has no plans to break up or lose control state owned monoplies.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:37 - ID#248180)
Donald @ Swiss Bank Gold
The re-release of this subject matter supports Farfels prediction of a renewed attack on gold and it's REAL VALUE and it's continued rise and support. The USA Govt. will go all out to keep exporting inflation in the form of the US$. The currency war is ON and the HOLDERS of GOLD will win.
Thank you Donald for your continued and valued efforts.

BART: I forgot my monthly thanks to you for this excellent site.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:39 - ID#26793)
@Old Gold; is this related to the Bank of England news?

Crystal Ball
(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:51 - ID#287367)
@ Old Gold
For the record: In yesterday's quiet trade, I re-established my long position in ABX July 22.5 PUTS for $1.25 ( cheep ) . The AOL 75 puts are not doing too badly either. Happy trading!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:57 - ID#288369) movement.....
If the euro is 15% gold backed initially and gold goes to $600/ounce, would not the euro be 30% gold-backed? I would think that this would be viewed as good for all EMU parties....and would it be likely that the Swiss would sell their excess gold to the euro bank for euros and increase the surety of the new currency at the same time? This move would offset the loses that the euro bank will take on their dollar holdings.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 07:58 - ID#238295)
Reify: We really are not that far apart on the economic outlook. You are looking fo an inflationary depression; I see an inflationary recession. And yes -- living standards for many in the US will take a big hit when the stock bubble collapses and credit standards are tightened.

JP: The reason the Asian countries have been unable to stave off deflation is the dominant role of the dollar in the international monetary system. But it will be much easier for the US to reflate if it is determined to do so

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:02 - ID#26793)
I don't consider myself an expert on the EMU but I think the Swiss are worried about being the high cost European trade partner. They will not be joining EMU but want to stay in the trading business with a level playing field. They could hope that selling gold will allow that. The voters are likely to have a contrary opinion from all I have read and seen posted here.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:02 - ID#288369)
@O.G.......y2k math back in the ol' USA.......
50% inflation + 50% deflation = 100% RECESSION

Crystal Ball
(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:02 - ID#287367)
Words of Wisdom for Today
The Zen Master goes up to the hot dog cart and says," Make me one with everything."

The hot dog vendor fixes a hot dog and hands it to the Zen Master,
who pays with a $20 bill. The vendor puts the bill in the cash box and
closes it.

"Where's my change?" asks the Zen Master.
And the vendor responds, "Change must come from within."

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:11 - ID#26793)
Manufacturers and exporters dominate politics in many ( most? ) countries. Rather than bother trying to produce the best quality product at the lowest price these pseudo-capitalists think that currencies are merely the tools that they can manipulate to their advantage. That is why floating currencies are doomed and gold will prevail. ( this an afterthought from my previous post )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:15 - ID#238295)
JSE gold index up 1.6% this morning despite some pressure on the bullion price.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:19 - ID#288369)
@Donald.....reality stalks these mislaid plans......
I agree with your comment about the business-influenced politicians.....contrarily, gold influences me.

expansion, expansion, egggspansssionnnn....explosion!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:27 - ID#33180)
HM reports lower costs, higher production

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:35 - ID#26669)
Too funny to pass over. I don't know where its from, forwarded email
Sorry about the formatting. Obviously this may have an unknown previous copyright. To get the full benefit, substitute the words gold and miner and insert the proper relative prices


- ------------------------------------

Teaching Math in 1950:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production

is 4/5 of the price. What is his profit?

Teaching Math in 1960:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production

is 4/5 of the price, or $80. What is his profit?

Teaching Math in 1970:

A logger exchanges a set "L" of lumber for a set "M" of money. The

cardinality of set "M" is 100. Each element is worth one dollar. The

set "C", the cost of production contains 20 fewer points than set

What is the cardinality of the set "P" of profits?

Teaching Math in 1980:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production

is $80 and his profit is $20. Your assignment: Underline the number


Teaching Math in 1990:

By cutting down beautiful forest trees, the logger makes $20. What do

you think of this way of making a living? Topic for class


after answering the question? How did the forest birds and squirrels


as the logger cut down the trees? There are no wrong answers.

Teaching Math in 1996:

By laying off 402 of its loggers, a company improves its stock price

from $80 to $100. How much capital gain per share does the CEO make

by exercising his stock options at $80. Assume capital gains are no


taxed, because this encourages investment.

Teaching Math in 1997:

A company outsources all of its loggers. They save on benefits and

when demand for their product is down the logging work force can


be cut back. The average logger employed by the company earned


had 3 weeks vacation, received a nice retirement plan and medical


The contracted logger charges $50 an hour. Was outsourcing a good


Teaching Math in 1998:

A logging company exports its wood-finishing jobs to its Indonesian

subsidiary and lays off the corresponding half of its US workers ( the

higher-paid half ) . It clear-cuts 95% of the forest, leaving the rest

for the spotted owl, and lays off all its remaining US workers. It


the workers that the spotted owl is responsible for the absence of

fellable trees and lobbies Congress for exemption from the


Species Act. Congress instead exempts the company from all federal

regulation. What is the return on investment of the lobbying.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:35 - ID#317193)
@STUDIO.R 7:57
What if..... it's 25% and gold goes to $1200? Those that pushed the price down can push the price up--CB's. Tom

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:38 - ID#347447)
You mention Asia not being able to "stave off deflation," but isn't that sort of backwards? I always thought that when a nation's currency is devalued by half that is INflation ( actually what appears to be "De flation" is actually the market catching up to the fact that INflation has rendered paper assets incredibly overvalued. The markets in Asia are recognizing the INflation that has occurred, as the markets in the US must to some degreee down the road.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:39 - ID#346404)

Yeltsin wins on his PM on the secret vote, our PMs headed south...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:43 - ID#288369)
@Tom.....the euromeister......
I do like your math.....and your logic. In the last two weeks, I certainly have lightened my load of soon-to-be devalued dollars in favor of gold stocks....GO EUROBUGS!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:44 - ID#284255)
Question for the MAC'ers
Anyone here running a G3?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:48 - ID#340459)
Swiss Gold / Reuter news
BERNE, April 24 ( Reuters ) - The Swiss National Bank

may hire outside asset managers to administer excess

gold reserves if voters approve a constitutional amendment

removing the Swiss franc's official gold link, Chairman Hans

Meyer said.

In the text of a speech to SNB shareholders, Meyer recalled

that a government advisory panel had found last year that the

SNB could split off around 1,400 tonnes of its 2,590-tonne gold

reserves that were no longer needed to conduct monetary policy.

The government intends to raise seven billion francs by

gradually selling part of the excess and using these funds to

finance a proposed Solidarity Foundation that would aid victims

of poverty, disasters and human rights abuses.

"The additional gold reserves not required for monetary

policy should remain property of the National Bank and be

managed along commercial lines," Meyer said.

"This task can be accomplished, it seems to me, in a way

that rules out conflicts of interest between the administration

of public property and the conduct of monetary policy. Third

parties could administer these assets, but the National Bank

would name the manager, set up guidelines and supervise the

management activity."

This plan would have to be part of revisions to the National

Bank law, which would follow constitutional amendments. No date

has been set yet for the referendum, but it is expected to be

voted on next year.

Under changes to the National Bank law that took effect in

November, the SNB has begun gold lending operations as one way

to boost returns on its foreign exchange reserves.

"At the end of 1997 lending transactions covered 99 tonnes

of gold," according to the SNB's annual report.

The average residual maturity of all such transactions was

around eight months at the time. The deals earned the SNB 2.6

million francs in 1997, for an annual yield of around 2.2


Berne announced plans for the Solidarity Foundation last

year as a way to lift neutral Switzerland above a mire of

accusations that it cynically profited from World War Two by

dealing extensively with Nazi Germany.

Public support for the plan was relatively strong when

then-President Kaspar Villiger announced it last March, but has

waned since then amid sustained foreign criticism of Switzerland

and especially its big banks.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:49 - ID#238295)
Mike Sheller: I meant to say that the Asian problems must be deflationary for the international economy as long as the greenback is king of the hill. The internal crises in these nations do resemple Reify's inflationary depression scenario.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:49 - ID#23941)

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:52 - ID#280215)
OLD GOLD: I have noticed you always quoting something that Andy Smith has said. I hear of many of the newsletter people such as Kaplan, Precheter, Wollanchuk etc.. but I've never really heard of Andy Smith. What is his history? Did he ever make any correct calls that give him credibility? Or has he simply been one of those who seems to always be wrong and is thus a good contrary indicator? Excuse my ignorance, but I simply have not heard of him. Thanks in advance!

All: Also, a while ago, someone mentioned that Andy Addison would be on CNBC for the morning as an analyst and has been one of the best or maybe even the best gold timer in the business. When he was interviewed , this was confirmed. I would be very interested in knowing his up-to-date comments on the gold market if anyone has knowledge. I like to balance my technicals with what the so called expert are thinking! Thanks in advance!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:53 - ID#317193)
SHORTS-help me!
Please, as I requested yesterday, knock the price of gold down. Come on now you shorts, you can do it. Yesterday I needed $2 off the price today I need about $3 to jump on some more contracts. Go ahead, get NAKED on those contracts. Gold has been going down for so long you can't lose-can you? Thank you in advance, your friend....Tom

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:53 - ID#185448)
A very, very, very old austrian proverb respecting announcements from Switzerland goes like that:
"Never trust a swiss banker, when he talks about Gold-sales."
Last year such announcements usually indicated upcoming troubles in the int. stock-markets.

This statement reflects my own personal opinion and must not be used against me in any circumstances.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:53 - ID#348286)
Don't be put off by the initial weakness. This was the case all week. Gold will rally again today. The shorts will no longer want to hold large positions over the weekend. 320 today ???
The white metals are pulling back due to Yeltsin winning the vote, this should have little bearing on Gold.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:54 - ID#23941)
I cant seem to get the messages off the short display mode. Any ideas how I can fix this?

I also can't look at any other time slots, execpt the one which is the current time?????

Thanks for any help

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 08:54 - ID#347447)
On the other hand, in a perverse way, the savage DEvaluation of Asian currencies, some by as much as 50%, allows a continued US Money supply growth of 9% to make the dollar seem quite strong in comparison. Naturally all things are relative, but this might just keep the dollar up there a bit longer rather than topple it immediately.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:02 - ID#280215)
Could you be a little more specific. Are you saying that you are clicking on the full text, and the time slot buttons and nothing is happening? ie.. everything is locked in their current positions. Or do you simply not know how to change the selections?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:11 - ID#23941)
Short message mode
I'm sorry about the previous post.

I have tried the buttons, and nothing seems to work, it was working OK 12 hours ago.

My password had also been cleared, where in the past it is always already there when I post a message.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:16 - ID#401460)

Not Yet,
I am planning on buying one in the near future.

I have seen and tested they are great....FAST!

They can launch a PhotoShop or PageMaker document in a second or two. Awesome!

They use the OS8.1 which I use with NO problems at all.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:16 - ID#36156)
wombat - seems you might have lost your cookie (no pun).
Passwords are exclusive to the computer you used when you registered. If the cookie file has been deleted or corrupted, Bart's server won't recognize who you are. It ( the server ) will default you to short text, no password and no frames. Perhaps you should re-register so that you can get a new cookie from Bart.

HenryD - Go Gold!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:18 - ID#316193)
Thank you for posting the Homestake news release. If I may add
some more good news, Homestake has an impressive share price
appreciation over the past three months, closing at 13 1/8
yesterday. As Old Gold has pointed out, the large producers
will lead the way during the early days of a gold rally.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:19 - ID#284255)
Excessive volatility
European bourses moving down strongly.

Giving up some of their excessive gains last week.
World markets moving in a lockstep pattern,
Showing that all movements don't rely on the Dow.

World markets are peaking,
Under the excesses of the current bubble.
Not just the Dow bubble.

Over this coming fear period,
Markets should move in tandem.
Confirming the lockstep.

Volatility has once again,
Surfaced to drive the fear.
As these global markets correct.

Take your seats please,
As we enter this period of chaos.
We can all have a global perspective.

Thanks for the site.
Great site too.

Shut your browser down and then start it again.
Wait till the page finishes loading .
Then try again.
Could possibly be a ISP problem.
I had similiar problems a few days ago.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:22 - ID#280215)
Nomally I would say that it's a problem with Kitco volume etc.., but it's working OK for me. Have you tried REFRESHING to the discussion group again. I'm not sure if it's something related to your machine or not.
( memory etc.. ) . Are you in any other sessions on your machine that could be stealing to much memory to fully load the kitco info? You might try, as a test, rebooting your machine, and with nothing else running, get into the internet and try accessing the group again. If that shows not progress, maybe a note to Bart is in order for his optinion.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:24 - ID#401460)
Gold vs. Paper Assets - CNBC

CNBC "could we have the signals of a banking and currency paper assets crises - Asian banking Gold up 12% etc." Host raises question and Jimmy Rogers responds " there are other hard assets to buy, other than Gold, I am buying rubber."

Well at least they are talking about the problem.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:25 - ID#340459)
Looks like the Longs and Shorts are wrestling, The price is very volatile specially in Silver
Dollar is weak, Euro stocks are sharply down, Dow/Nasdaq/S&P will most likely dive today, Bond values are down.

So what is your problem Gold ?
Kill the shorts, Tis your time to shine.......

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:27 - ID#340459)
@HighRise - Jimmy Rogers / CNBC calling 'rubber' a 'hard asset', what a contradiction in terms

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:27 - ID#224149)
Just Like A Women
So Much ----For the Gold Bull----Away to catch falling dreams

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:29 - ID#284255)
Just come back from scanning pictures into photoshop on a G3.
Performance was abysmal. Couldn't work out why.
The G3 has 160mb ram and did a total shutdown with three programs running.
Importing files from another Mac slow as ( the bar showing how long to wait was reading 1,037,000hrs ) ????
But still took far too long.
There is no software to analyse the performance on the O/S under system 8

Do you know of any good software to find, analyse and fix performance problems? Norton perhaps?

Email on

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:33 - ID#373403)
At what price level or price change do they all run to cover?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:36 - ID#341189)
Here ( I hope ) is a graph showing the 14 year trend of Gold, XAU and th XAU/Gold ratio.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:38 - ID#348286)
@Isn't It Amazing Category
CIBC, the 2nd largest bank in Canada is sending out promotional folders. They offer a new GIC, with a no risk portion that is linked to the TSE 35 Index performance.
OK so far.
Well the promotional folders feature GOLD maple leafs liberally splattered
all over them. On the front at least a pile of 10.
Banks are supposed to hate GOLD.......
Another example of the mainstream financial wizards using GOLD to sell their paper products.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:38 - ID#280215)
OLD GOLD RE:Andy Smith
Never mind my request for info on Andy Smith. I did some searching and found the following June 97 golden eagle editorial that gives me the bio info I was looking for. Thanks!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:41 - ID#280215)
golden eagle link to Andy Smith
If anyone was interested in the Andy Smith bio link, I got it wrong. I typed in golden-eagle when it should be golden-eagle.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:45 - ID#317193)
Shorts-come on now
Shorts-you people are feeble and pathetic. Come on help me out! Repeat after me. IDCISM....I DON'T CARE I'M SELLING MORE. As always, your assistance is greatly appreciated. Now get out there and sell another naked contract for the Gipper. Tom

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:45 - ID#339274)
FWIW Get on board third and fourth hour for a leap.Happy trading

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:45 - ID#280215)
AH Nuts:
I forgot about the automatic pasting of the "en" in the golden-eagle name. For anyone interested who doesn't know, open the link yourself and take the en out golden-eagle.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:45 - ID#280215)
Straddler (golden eagle link to Andy Smith) ID#280215:
Hee, hee ... Bartman strikes again.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:50 - ID#401460)
HenryD & Wombat

I have my "Cookie" turned off so that I have to accept or refuse them each time they are sent, a little bit of a hassle but I feel more secure.

You are correct that some Bank and Brokerage sites require you to accept their cookies for ID purposes. However I have not found that the case with Kitco.

In the past I have had problems accessing Kitco when others have not; I have e-mailed Bart and the problem seems to be resolved, though, I don't know how.

If you have been on line for a while, visiting many different locations, each location puts a memory picture ( ? ) on your hard drive in the Cache.

You may want to check your Cache Directory or RAM Disk for memory shortage. You can clear these manually or by restarting your cpu; doing this will clear them and initialize or tise your modem.

I some times think Kitco problems relate to where one is located in the World. Or maybe El-Nino has something to do with it.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 09:59 - ID#253418)
No DOW Crash
DOW is now up!! Silver taking a kicking. That's where the shorts are. But could this be ....will the shorts not pervail in their attempt to drive the market lower. Actually, based on open interest activity it looks like long and short liquidation is primarily what going on. No new players entering here.

Looks like we'll have the Duma to kick around for awhile. PD holding up quite well. SWC opened higher. Mayber this won't be such a bad day.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:03 - ID#20135)
This is a repost of Leland's. It points out that the world is awash in USdollars. When they come home, which they will as usdollar falls, inflation will go through the roof.

"Few Americans may realize it, but more
U.S. currency is in circulation outside the United
States than inside. Of the $450 billion in bills and
coins now lining people's wallets, cash registers,
bank vaults, and mattresses, about two thirds--or
$300 billion--is abroad.

Roughly 80 percent of the American cash abroad is in the form of $100 bills.

As long as the paper
stays overseas, the United States does not have to
redeem it for other goods or services, and it does
not swell America's domestic money supply or
contribute to inflation. "

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:13 - ID#20135)
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 09:45
TYoung ( Shorts-come on now ) ID#317193:

Right on! This is a paper game, the shorts won't give up until they realize that the other side of the contracts are taking delivery and THERE IS NO COMMODITY to delivery. They are just buying and selling paper ... paper gold, paper silver, paper platinum, unfortunately they are having trouble with palladium because THEY CAN'T DELIVER IT. People need palladium NOW and they are demanding delivery not paper promises of lower prices. Remember one year ago palladium was at $160 per ounce!!!

The trend is up. Buy the commosity of your choice and TAKE DELIVERY.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:17 - ID#20767)
@Midas_A, HighRise
It must be that Jimmy Rogers feels closer to that commodity, possibly because it is occasionally in such close proximity to his primary asset.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:26 - ID#224149)
Bacon @ Eggs
Mike Sheller England ---The house of cards Astrologers Convention ---Just got back ---Time for a Pig-Feast ---Get that barbecue out ---Pork bellies need some help ---Away to find the missing cycle.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:30 - ID#210235)
@Mike Sheller - Deflation 101
Having lived your adult life in an inflation, you, like me, find deflation confusing. You are very close to the mark in that deflation is the markets correcting an inflation. It's inflation upside-down. I've studied the US period 1930 to 32 until I had a grip on this one. You can see it in Korea or Indonesia today:

( Inflation ) You have equity in a house of 75,000, a stock portfolio worth maybe 200,000. Your company keeps maybe 2:1 ratio quick assets ( liquid ) to current liabilities. It owns the land it's on which has appreciated 10x in the past 25 years. You go to the banker, who has easy money, and he values your assets, plans for inflation, and gives you a loan to expand the business to 6 new locations to sell your widgets.

( Deflation ) The markets have crashed. People are nervous. Your stock portfolio, which you calculated this morning is only worth 60,000. You don't want to give it away, but it's hard to evaluate their worth because the assets they represent are in a tailspin. Housing isn't moving, but you heard someone recently sold one like yours for half what you paid for yours. Your company's inventory isn't moving. You pay your bills and the staff's salaries, and face bankruptsy. You go to your friend, the banker, and he isn't lending as he fears another wave of selling eroding the value of your assets. Your currency has dropped relative to others, so the fine champagne at the market has dissapeared. No one was buying it. Luxury items are suddenly very expensive, as you must either import them or become a patron of whomever is making it just for you. You are in a deflation.

Some billionaires are said to be in town, and just bought up the local landmark castle for a pittance. You must lay-off employees as your money has dried up. You suspend operations of your company and begin to sell off the assets. Everyone else is selling, too. No buyers in sight.

You are in a classic deflationary pattern. All confidence has gone out of your monetary system.

Remember, that much of economic activity is based on estimated values. Your loans against your home, stocks, and investment property were based only upon their estimated net worth. This can change in a flash, with no actual money changing hands. The millions your financial advisors told you that you were worth never had to be printed or counted in M3. It was confidence all along.

Your gold, by the way, is still gold. And has not suffered a loss of relative worth to the rest of the outside world. Your gold holdings pull the fat out of the fire. You hold your land and home and find a new product to make and sell, temporarily. Glad you held gold!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:31 - ID#257136)
To the little garrulous boy ( A.K.A. Liberty and for all we know, a multiplicity of
handles. )
You're back at the ol' stand, I see!

And we were beginning to develop an actual liking for your posts.

ADIOS L.G.B. and howdy to the little garrulous boy ag"in!

Gotta git goin' fer nayow, but will be back and read everthin' frum last nite soon as ah kin!!

Chow!little feller!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:35 - ID#401460)
sharefin Mac G3

It occurred to me that your problem may be with the size of the image you are creating.

You can set the scanner preferences to the size of image and dpi; if either of these is not set right you could be creating an image the size of a football field. I know, I have done a lot of scanning, and have done this.

This is the only explanation for an OS8 Mac G3 with 160 mb of ram, to "appear" to be running slow.

If this is the problem, it is amazing that it even kept running PhotoShop.

I will check with others, and e-mail you.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:35 - ID#254269)
Gold morning all.
( test ) .

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:39 - ID#31876)
Japan's New Eco Boost Announced Today @ $120+ Billion --- Do I Hear A Fizzle?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:39 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re Lee quakes
That was some site!! I did a rough correlation with it cf USGS for April. The USGS quake locations 4/20-4/23 and Lee's for April on initial check gave Lee a 62% correlation. Will have to watch regularly and cf USGS. Many thanx. One more thing- I have a full 3.5 disk with COT current back thru '96. I can't seem to get my winzip to display so I can print. Do you have any suggestions? Thanx, Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:39 - ID#298259)
I think RonD_A and JTF scared him off again. We can only hope.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:41 - ID#284255)
Worse, the world's other hope as an engine of growth, Japan, may prove the biggest 2000 disaster of all: Japan's unwillingness or inability to confront the problem in time could send a shock wave through the global financial system.

The problems extend beyond national boundaries, with US companies being urged to consider dropping business with overseas suppliers who are not fully 2000-compliant.

"The general consensus is that most of Asia is nowhere near ready. The less developed computer user countries like Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia will have major problems, "
Chaos will propel gold higher.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:47 - ID#284255)
No debt, cash and GOLD will be king
Sound like what Japan has/is going through.

The G3 was sluggish regardless of photoshop.
Thanks and will watch the mailbox.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:49 - ID#401460)

Thank you for the post, I have had this problem of being totally programed to defend against Inflation.

Interestingly, I witnessed some of the same deflationary problems you mentioned in 1983. Real estate deflation.

All should be aware that, deflation and inflationary signals can be mask as other events, in 83 universally the banks changed their appraisal method - instead of real value they started to use quick sale value, at least 20% less. No one knew this happened, and for that matter few realize that this is the policy today.

A builder specs a home thinking he has 80% of the money he needs; however as he approaches completion he is 20% short.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:54 - ID#341206)
Today's IBD
In todat's IBD Mutual Fund Index it shows the gold funds are the #1 performing funds so far in 1998. The funds are up 19.6%. RUN GOLD RUN!!!!!!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:55 - ID#31876)
"Gold is straining at the leash waiting for an excuse to leap forward--"

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:55 - ID#269469)
swiss gold sales (again)>

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:55 - ID#342315)
Donald re Carl's chart
Did you catch the chart @ 9:36? How does this jive with your plan on in and out numbers you posted re XAU? It looks like a fit. Thanx, Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:56 - ID#401460)

Another Rat jumps ship, appears that the president is getting ready to leave early.

Normally cabinet members do not start to resign this early in the last presidential term. Or this many all at once - 3 or 4 this month?


(Fri Apr 24 1998 10:56 - ID#240120)
@ Digger

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:03 - ID#31868)
Who dresses Al Gore...anybody have an, what the hell is the Coward Erect talking about right now...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:08 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re email
You may not have my new Also I received an email and can't find my website for AYM. Can you send it to me and email to I changed computers and ISP. Thanx

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:09 - ID#31868)
We need bigger traps!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:11 - ID#340302)
F*'s UPGRADE of the gold market...
Many of you may have noticed that I omitted a final verdict on Gold in my late report I posted last night. I did so, not because of any particular senility on my part, but rather awaiting a conversation that took place early this morning.

I am now UPGRADING my evaluation of gold's movements next week from EXTREMELY BULLISH to another WATCH OUT ABOVE!

It should be noted that, as per my earlier prediction, Swiss National Bank boldly stepped forward with the same old warning regarding an impending sale of almost 50% of their gold reserves ( subject, of course, to approval by the Swiss voters ) .

This is but one of a series of scare attacks that Wall Street is initiating with great haste in order to kill the gold bull in its earliest stages ( I am posting later again this morning to explain why Wall Street is so concerned about a redirection of monies into PM's, in answer to LGB's questions of last night and for the benefit of new Kitco posters who also may have similar questions in their minds ) .

However, the important question you must ask yourselves is this: Is Switzerland in a position to sell off half of its gold reserves? If you
are uncertain of the answer, then you might ask Mr. HepMeMoney for some
assistance. I would imagine he might be able to "hep you out" in making a final determination.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:11 - ID#317193)
Japan's announcement=JOKE
Japan's stimulus package is a joke! Borrowed money or money from sold treasuries poured into a black hole. They just don't "get it". Fool's, take your loses and start over with all your savings! Sell those damn US securities and do what Europe is doing. Cut the US umbilical cord. Tom

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:19 - ID#266105)
@chips&dip in Durban Deep

dd adrs presently up 4.5% on 1/2mil vol

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:20 - ID#25171)
Anyway the swiss folks are so fed up with the international community and lobies pressuring them into selling their GOLD that there is no doubt about the outcome of the referendum.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:21 - ID#31868)
The Coward Erect, "quietly"
signs the wavier on export control laws...treason...treason...

The Hermit
(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:27 - ID#369247)
@ Prometheus - your 10:30
Excellent post! Hold on to that Gold!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:28 - ID#347235)
@ Bart

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:30 - ID#347235)
@ Bart
Side margins awol again!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:31 - ID#371237)
SWISS selling their gold.... No way!
Being a European ( leaving now in the US ) I know the Swiss very well. Talk about conservative folks. The population will NEVER vote YES to sell their gold. They have been tricked by their banks ( that played with the Jewish gold and the Swiss also got a bad reputation because of an incapable Ambassador in New York ) . The Swiss, like the US citizens, don't necessarily trust their government. ( They actually did not trust their women, in the german part of Switzerland and allowed them to vote only a few decades back! ) . Remember that Swiss citizens voted against entering the European Community ( and will pay economically for that ) . Do you think that they will get rid of their gold... I don't think so. Just IMHO. They may sell some of their Jewish "debts" but not a penny more. Swiss population is very simple minded and not speculators ( in general ) . The Swiss are not goldbugs, BUT understand quite well the value of "their" gold. They will vote down any referendum suggesting to get rid of their CB gold reserves. Just IMHO.
I have not looked at the "Swiss-Jewish problem" recently and don't know whether they are going to give gold back or money to the jewish community. Wouldn't that be "real bad" for the Swiss if POG shot up to $600 ?... Don't the Swiss have an incentive to keep the POG down? I don't know.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:32 - ID#347235)
@ Tolerant1
1.His momma who else could dress him?
2. Who cares?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:32 - ID#251166)
ALL -- Re. Silver content in coins
1965-69 Kennedy half dollars contain 40% silver, yes? Is this also true for US quarters minted during the same period?


(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:34 - ID#339274)
FWIW XAU looking for 89.5 ,to fill the gap

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:40 - ID#401460)

We need biggger traps - right.

Scary to think they are going to be running the streets again.

I wonder where they will nest now?


(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:40 - ID#341189)
No, on the other coins. Only the clad halves had any silver.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:50 - ID#251166)
Re. No silver in 65-69 quarters -- Thanks, Carl.
Well, that's great. I've just added to my hoard of batting cage tokens.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:52 - ID#246224)
"Big Black Hole" = 'relatively large, somewhat dark volumn lacking in material'
TYoung - out of sensitivity for our Asian friends I think it would be appropriate to be solicitous and circumspect in describing the, um.. er.. position they are in. If you could be a bit more vague and generalize your descriptions it might help. Whatever you can do, on your part, would be greatly appreciated. Thank you. ;- )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:52 - ID#253153)
Correction in the POG --Opportunity to buy more
Don't be afraid of Swiss gold sales threats or any other CB sales. We are in a gold bull market.The gold market has the strength to absorb any sales. Corrections are buying opportunities.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:53 - ID#433142)
Buy corn, rubber, shrimp
CNBC interviewer asked stock market "guru" this morning if the rise in gold ( 12% from bottom ) signaled investors' move from equities to "safe harbor." Guru's response: Why gold? when they COULD be moving to corn, rubber, pork bellies ANYTHING? The line is being drawn in the sand and the battle, gentlemen, is about to be waged. Comments?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:54 - ID#269469)
Re: bad URL @10:55
Looks like the software that makes the text into a link dropped the ball. If you copy and paste everything between "http" and "HEADNEWS=TRUE" into the location box in your browser and hit "Enter" you should be just fine.

The jist of the article is that they are discussing setting up a third party to administrate the gold sales.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 11:54 - ID#20135)
Remember that we have had a large number of gold mine closing this last 12 months. ( maybe someone has some statistics that they can give us on these closings and there impact of gold supplies ) Supply from the ground has been dropping, demand has continued to increase. Central banks have cut back or stopped their sales and possibly cut their gold loans.

People are looking for new places to move their money ( the stock market is looking frothy ) . Mentions of the gold market as possible investments are starting to be made on the networks. If investors from the stock market just put 1% of their money into gold and gold stocks, the gold market will roar.

The fundamentals are looking very positive and gold is near its lows. We have a good distance to run. And it is an ideal time to make the run. Everyone in this market is looking over their shoulder for every dollar gold goes up  and we are only at 312.65 ( 11:06 ) . We will go ballistic ( attitudewise ) when we hit 320???? Now I would say that is pretty conservative goals compared to 18months ago.

So, I think we are in a positive trend. As the real stocks of bullion dwindle, slowly people will realize that they will need to pay MORE - just like in the world of Palladium ( paper palladium just doesn't work as well anymore.


So sorry, that my spelling is so incredibly bad ( dyslectic ) as you have seen the spell checker doesn't help sometimes and when I go for a quick note well hopefully it is the thought that counts. Have a great day and
Buy gold, take delivery and hang onto it.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:00 - ID#433142)
Golden "cheesehead"?
Appreciate your posts. What is the origin of you monicker?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:00 - ID#246224)
I was wrong about the amount of cash money in coin and paper in circ in USA
Out of a total $450 billion total in circulation world wide only $150 billion is in the USA. That ration of M3 to cash money in the US is really 36+ to 1 rather than the previously reported 27+ to 1.

I am truly ashamed if I have in any way mislead those here to conclude that there is enough cash to handle withdrawls from M3 monies ( minimun ) . In fact a withdrawl of 2.7% of monies in cash accounts, savings, CD's and short term interbank notes would COMPLETELY vacuum all cash out of circulation. After that I suppose that IOU's would due. Or are US dollars IOU's to begin with. I'd better stop here, because I think I'm getting confused.

See you at the bank! Wave 'Hi', OK? Thanks.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:02 - ID#317193)
You are of course correct. I was given to a state of emotionalism. Unfitting for a Kitcoite. I should have been more tactful and considerate. Thanks, I needed that. Tom

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:06 - ID#224149)
Saving The Little People
Golden Oldies Strike one ------Strike Two -----Youre flat on your face ---Nothing like facial fracture---My new e-mail Address for Insults or Whatever is

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:06 - ID#20135)
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 11:11
TYoung ( Japan's announcement=JOKE ) ID#317193:

Right again. All Japan has to do is announce to the world that they are selling USG bonds and buying gold at any price.

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 11:11
farfel ( F*'s UPGRADE of the gold market... ) ID#340302:

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 11:53
GC500+in98 ( Buy corn, rubber, shrimp ) ID#433142:

For what it is worth, I think that indeed ALL commodities will rise as the USdollar becomes, shall we say, unpopular. BUT I expect gold to be the BIG WINNER.

Well, you were right on target with your last call. Keep it up.

Got to Run. It will be interesting to see the results at the end of the day, BUT it really matter. The trend is in, the trend is gold's friend.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:10 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index up 2.99% to 1102.
This index is up 17.74% for the week!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:12 - ID#341189)
Thanks so much for the figures on in-the-US cash. I've been looking for these for a long time. Where did you get them?

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:16 - ID#209265)
TYoung - Japan
Dear TYoung,

Japanese actions have to be understood in terms of geopolitical factors. You're right that they're doing things that make no economic sense, and this is apparent even to Japanese government insiders. They know exactly what they should do in their country's best interest, and what is not widely known here in NA is just how much preparation in the form of personal PM accumulation is going on in a discrete way among businessmen in Japan.

Japanese economists know that their country should seel its US treasury debt, build up their gold reserves at the expense of US$ reserves, and restructure their financial industry gradually and carefully.

This would burst the US bubble, though, since the Japanese hold 1/3 of the US external debt. Remember how the Japanese PM sent markets into a mini-panic when simply uttered a single sentence at Harvard about selling US treasuries to buy gold?

The Japanese know they should do that, but their hands are tied because of their reliance upon the US for defense. The US has been playing this trump card for several years now, behind the scenes.

The Japanese are not going to commit economic seppuku if they can help it. And it is no coincidence that two days ago the gov't's Foreign Affairs & Defense committee issued a proposal for submission to the Diet that will increase Japan's self-reliance in defense matters ( see "Japan Considers Revising Constitutional Constraints on Military" on the Strategic Forecasting site. )

It was bound to happen anyway- the WWII generation is dying off in Japan, and the newer generations are not nearly so averse to Japan having a military with muscle.

It will take some years, but this development will mean that the US will not get a free ride from Japan in the future. Japan will shift some of the burden of recovery from market imbalances to the US as it frees itself from dependence in military matters.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:16 - ID#57236)
Trouble in US during possible economic collapse, vs NZ
aurator: I have no doubt NZ is more civilized than the US, and better prepared to cope with adversity. The problem in the US will not be with the average self-sufficient rural American -- what I call the 'salt of the earth' -- and probably very much like the average NZ'er. I am especially fond of Salt Lake City where I found parts for my antiquated car that no one else had. The problem will be with the individuals who have been getting handouts instead of jobs. They will not appreciate the sudden withdrawal of welfare support, and will demand what cannot be given. Many big American cities will be in uproar. It is not really their fault, it is the fault of the 'great society' that removed them from an environment where they could be self sufficient -- after a fashion anyway -- and put them into a totally dependent situation. Blindly throwing money at a problem has been a weakness of American Government for years, when better solutions are possible.

Also -- the desire of the average American to maintain a high standard of living when real costs of living have increased --- has lead to neglect of our children. How do you watch them when you work two jobs, and spouse works too?

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:16 - ID#209265)
TYoung - Japan
Dear TYoung,

Japanese actions have to be understood in terms of geopolitical factors. You're right that they're doing things that make no economic sense, and this is apparent even to Japanese government insiders. They know exactly what they should do in their country's best interest, and what is not widely known here in NA is just how much preparation in the form of personal PM accumulation is going on in a discrete way among businessmen in Japan.

Japanese economists know that their country should seel its US treasury debt, build up their gold reserves at the expense of US$ reserves, and restructure their financial industry gradually and carefully.

This would burst the US bubble, though, since the Japanese hold 1/3 of the US external debt. Remember how the Japanese PM sent markets into a mini-panic when simply uttered a single sentence at Harvard about selling US treasuries to buy gold?

The Japanese know they should do that, but their hands are tied because of their reliance upon the US for defense. The US has been playing this trump card for several years now, behind the scenes.

The Japanese are not going to commit economic seppuku if they can help it. And it is no coincidence that two days ago the gov't's Foreign Affairs & Defense committee issued a proposal for submission to the Diet that will increase Japan's self-reliance in defense matters ( see "Japan Considers Revising Constitutional Constraints on Military" on the Strategic Forecasting site. )

It was bound to happen anyway- the WWII generation is dying off in Japan, and the newer generations are not nearly so averse to Japan having a military with muscle.

It will take some years, but this development will mean that the US will not get a free ride from Japan in the future. Japan will shift some of the burden of recovery from market imbalances to the US as it frees itself from dependence in military matters.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:18 - ID#348286)
Today is gonna be a bad day on the stock markets. TSE down 100, the darling banks are getting hammered. Personally I don't care where these markets go.
All I know is Gold is going higher despite ( inspite ) of the mainstream media........

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:23 - ID#342315)
A.Goose re spelling
I have never had any hint of trouble from your posts. The idea overides any spelling problems. I have my own style of "short hand" which must jive with yours-- no sweat

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:27 - ID#288369)
@Promey.........your 10:30..........
uh huh.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:29 - ID#210235)
@Steve in TO
Don't forget how many assets the Japanese hold in Europe and the Americas. Not just the USA, but Mexico. They have bought real estate, established banks and made aggressive loans, and established numerous factories abroad. To a great extent, our continued economic health is in their best interest. I don't have the numbers, but remember reading back in the late 80's some really amazing statistics as they established themselves here in California. No way do the Japanese want to trash our economies.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:31 - ID#288369)
When the Golden Sword of Justice hollows out the trunk of Camdessus....I shall stuff him/it with little Jimmy Rogers. All in the same.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:34 - ID#356379)
Silver wars

Has anyone noticed the battle raging in the silver future puts today? The shorts have tried to force prices lower 4 times so far, only to have the longs come back with a vengence each time. This seems like a defining battle to me. If the shorts succeed, silver may be headed lower bigtime. If longs prevail, the shorts' back may be broken and we are headed much higher. I wish D.A was here to give us the particulars of the battle in the pits. I'm sure he would note that silver is a thin market where the principals know and despise each other. A commercial house ( Philbro? ) up against a fund? Interesting dynamics.

Away to the still...


(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:34 - ID#257148)
Thank you for your considered response. I had not seen the US' problem in that light, and I shall think more about what may happen down under. We may not be so different after all.

Did you get my email of a possible way to find Anthony SUtton?

Allen, Steve in TO
A privilege to read you. SE Asia and NE Asia have become very unstable as historic power blocks crumble and new political and strategic alliances are formed. Interesting times indeed

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:34 - ID#340302)
Why Wall Street is Terrified of a Gold Bull.
First, I would like to quote from Liberty's ( or LGB's ) comments of the previous night.

LGB Said:

Wall St.'s gonna attack Gold as a scapegoat? Cause they're diappointed with the flattening after mere 30% gains in a few months time?

I hardly think anyone on Wall St. will be giving a rats ass about Gold one way or the other tomorrow Mr "F" word. Gold is now and will remain inthe foreseeable future, a minor part of global economics. YOU may think all kinds of Wall St. types are fretting about what Gold will do on up/down days in stocks. THEY could barely care less. You need a serious reality're drifting further and further off into your own little world. Get a grip dude!

Now, I would like to comments on LGB's thoughts and I ask the indulgence of the majority of Kitcoite posters who have heard these arguments many times before. I am only making comments for the benefit of relatively new posters who may think LGB's arguments are particularly convincing.

F* says:

Essentially, at this point in time, with an equities market in a state of
effective verticality, you now have two major types of investment in these markets: highly speculative, bold investment seeking the hightest return at any cost and extremely nervous, uncertain investment seeking the highest and safest return. It is becoming quite obvious that these two separate camps are imbalanced at this point in time with the highly speculative group now outweighing the extremely nervous group seeking maximum safety.

For members of the latter group, Wall Street is either sending them in the direction of utilities investments or in the direction of bonds. Once again, verification of this thesis is provided in today's notable weakness in equities versus the notable strength in bonds.

Why bonds and not PM's?

Essentially, this country has one amazing astronomical debt. The linchpin of a strong dollar ( and therefore a strong equities market ) is this countries ability to make payments on the interest on this enormous debt. If the bond market were to experience a collapse, it is simply a foregone conclusion that the dollar would collapse and the equities would tumble right with it.

If all the nervous monies in the market were to place investments in gold or silver instead of bonds, then America would not be able to make its interest payments on its enormous debt. Investments in gold and silver do not benefit the American deficit to any notable degree other than through taxes collected on the investment activity and those provided by domestic gold producers. America's debt default would result in effective default and a decimation of the American dollar. Ergo, it goes without saying that general ( non-PM ) equities would collapse as well.

So, the only reason that "gold remains a minor part of global economics" ( in LGB's words ) is not because there is any common sense to the matter. It is simply that over the past two decades, global governments ( at the inspiration of the United States ) have pushed the bonds alternative to PM's. This constant endorsement of bonds is the linchpin of American global economic hegemony. Thus, today's American society is simply unaware of the extremely positive qualities of PM's and have no conceptions as to the imminent disaster awaiting bonds.

Obviously, if gold and silver were to continue to make 50% returns on investment every few months and if the safety features of these metals were propagandized in an active manner, then bondholders would soon flee their investments in droves and join the great gold/silver bull. Bonds would collapse in value and soon you might see a PM market that would dwarf the extant bond market, with bonds forming a minor part of the U.S. domestic financial market.

Wall Street, of course, is keenly aware of the preceding facts. So, we
are in the early stages of a perceptual war between the two invesment alternatives.

Anti-gold tactics are kicking into full gear again today with, first, the specious announcement of probable Swiss gold sales ( ask yourselves why this tired old rumor is being disseminated into the markets today ( snoreZZZzzzz ) ) and for those who pay attention to the mainstream media, you might note that our old friend CNBC is going out of its way to avoid showing PM quotes again, instead preferring to show frequent quotes on the rising bond market. So what else is new?



(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:36 - ID#285121)
HGMCY down / DROOY down / RANGY up. Go Figure Hu.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:40 - ID#426220)

REF: "2BR02B? ( @chips&dip in Durban Deep )

Please notice the date of this web posting: July 20, 1997.
I do not believe this has anything to do with DROOY weaknes
today. In my opinion today's action is just consolidating a bit vis-a-vis
very large gains in recent days. HEY, it can't go up 10%

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:41 - ID#246224)
Read it on another site, but forgot where. They were quoting a Fed or treasury offical whose job it is to track cash. I had been thinking US$500 billion total and about US$200 at home. It looks a bit lower and only 1/3rd of this at home. I suppose it doesn't really matter niggling over a few billion or percentage points. M3 at US$5.5 trillion, Stocks valuation @ US$13 trillion, at least *tens* of trillions in bonds. As I was fond of saying in math class 'those are big numbers'. There is no real exit for even 0.5% of this into cash, let alone PM's. The rush for the exits will be bizzare to say the least. People will buy anything they can take delivery on even things they have no use for or way to dispose of.

What do think people will do when they realize that 99.5% of their 'wealth' will simply vanish into the ether?

Ummmmmm .......... I don't think it will be a very pretty sight.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:41 - ID#224149)
Emotional Monday --So They Say !!!!!!!
Mike Sheller ---Me Thinks ---The 88 Day Mercury Heliocentric Cycle ---Jumped out the Window ---Before the Heart Attack ---Away before the roof collapses

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:48 - ID#57236)
Slow as molasses? Silver wars spilling into gold?
aurator: I have not gotten your e-mail as of last night 4/23/98. Windows 95 converson lead to loss of all previous e-mail messages ( except on backup tape somewhere ) . Everything is working now -- at home.

What I have so far on Antony Sutton ( no h ) is that his last book was 1997, and that he lives ( ? ) in Pheonix Arizona, and publishes something called the 'Phoenix Letter'. He must be nearly 80. My next step is to call Phoenix, or get accesss to a national phone#/address database. Antony Sutton would have excellent insight into our current situation, so we should do our very best to reach him.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:49 - ID#224149)
You @Kitco are the First to Know
Pink Floyd Tour This Summer ---With Roger Waters ----North American Yes sssss .

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:50 - ID#285392)
Daily mines and metals news reports

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:50 - ID#404246)
farfel (F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market)

Thanks very much for being up front on what you intend to do to us. No hidden agendas here.


Date: Apr 24 1998 00:45
farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market )

However, there are fundamental notions I present in this report that I believe must be hammered into the minds of various Kitcoites over and over again until, at last, they "get it." God only knows that gold shorts have spent the past two years repeating an all too familiar litany of scare tactics ad nauseum. It is necessary to de-program many goldbugs of
these gold short brainwashing tactics via an equally compelling and antithetical form of pro-gold agit-prop.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:51 - ID#210235)
Now, now Studio!
In all fairness, Jimmy Rogers has repeatedly said that the CB's are manipulating the price of gold, and that he's not big enough or tough enough to face them down. So he buys around the problem. He's never been
in the anti-gold camp. I heard him say that maybe a year and a half ago a few times. Of course, gold fell less than all the other commodities he's been promoting during this period, so he'd have done much better in GOLD! Har har har

Doesn't you just bleed for the guy?

Check out some recent stats ( Economist, april 11th )

All items in USD -16%
Non-food AGS USD -20.1%
Industrials in USD -18%
Crude ( sorry ) -22%
GOLD - 11.2%

Looks slightly worse in Sterling, a bit better in SDR's, but the
relative fall is the same.

Gotta run. BBL

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:52 - ID#210235)
Sorry for not prooofing. Writing on the run.

Doesn't = don't

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:53 - ID#266105)

Correct. Checking alertness, you will be tested...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:57 - ID#285392)
Canada Newswire Information FYI Contains mining information etc.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:58 - ID#240120)
Korea's men in suits take a hike
Article about Korean unemployment:

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:58 - ID#36156)
JTF - RE: Sutton
Go here

If he's listed, you should find him here.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 12:59 - ID#347235)
@ Allen
Our "Aisian Friends have never been solicitous about our well being,

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:00 - ID#347235)
Sorry about misspeeling Asian, Ol'Fahts disease, I type faster than I can think sometimes.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:03 - ID#347447)
You Heliocentric astrologers are damned, in league with the devil, and going straight to hell! I'll stick with Geocentricity, thank you, and keep MY salvation assured! ( ;- )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:03 - ID#320376)
More questions than answers
Where is Schippi? Is he still doing that FSAGX/FDPMX chart? Does anybody have that URL since I lost it when I changed computers? And why is FDPMX so unexcited about the emerging gold bull? What are they investing in over there, seafood?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:05 - ID#340302)
Just one other point that I omitted in my previous post:

Today, Wall Street will do everything in its power to ensure that, if the overall market must fall, then gold equities will fall right along with it.

It is imperative to do this in order to invalidate the negative beta ( contrarian relationship ) the gold equities have established recently to the overall market.

By Wall Street invalidating gold equities' negative beta and with the bond market showing real strength, then Wall Street can once again provide empirical rationale that bonds are a much superior, SAFER, alternative investment to precious metals or precious metals equities.

As I highlighted in my gold report last night, Wall Street's strong attack today on the gold equities negative beta was forecast to me by my Eastern friend last night.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:05 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel, all........"IF" "IF" "IF"
Farfel, you said "If all the nervous monies in the market were to place investments in gold or silver instead of bonds, then
America would not be able to make its interest payments on its enormous debt. "

I say, "If wishes were horses than beggars would ride".

Let's deal with reality instead of "IF's" . No one's arguing that the stock market can continue it's vertical climb. Bearish "warning" artciles are showing up, even in publications such as Newsweek. See this week's COVER story for example.

However, when the market corrects, as it inevitably will, only a small portion of the "scared" money will find it's way into PM's. It will certainly propel the PM's higher, it will certainly mean better days ahead for PM investors, such as you and I. But it will NOT mean wholesale stampede of the American or worldwide populace into PM's. Have the Asians rushed to Gold in their crises? They've done the OPPOSITE. Dishoarding, voluntarily turning it over to their governemnt ( in Korea's case ) , etc.

They're doing whatever it takes to repair they're bubble economies, and get back on track, same as we will do if and when similar crises erupt here. Whether we have hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, bubble bursting. You must look at today's investor psychology, to understand what the "herd" will do tomorrow when they get "spooked". SOme will turn to Gold, but it'll be a relatively small number. Maybe enought o drive Gold temporarily to the $800 to $1,000 level ( which is what I expect ) ...then again, maybe not.

Those who eliminate the possibility that no huge "meltdown" will occur, those who eliminate the possibility tha the FED will pump liquidity into the sysyem, those who eliminate the possibility that we are indeed in a new era where horses will not become the dominant means of transportation once again.....are simply ignoring some very impoirtant their investment strategy peril.

All...Apologies for early AM outbursts. Found a pipe had broken months ago, destroyed all the flooring, sub floor, insulation, and vapor barrier in the house, gas is off for days due to mudslide taking out main line to our county ( no hot water, heat, laundry, cooking, etc....forget Gold, store propane and firewood!!! ) ) .....boss leaving on disability and I am reluctantly stepping into the position, a nightmare of pressure.......

Anyway, I was cranky. And when cranky, the monolithic, narrow, single faceted, extremist views become especially annoying! Will curb the rhetoric now...back to issues

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:09 - ID#31868)
Hey Mikey!!!!
Picking up the two ounce platinum ring in a few minutes!!!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:13 - ID#298259)
Frank Veneroso speaks...very interesting reading...
Please excuse any typo's, I typed this in spell checker..

I found this very interesting...From Gold Newsletter April 1998 issue:

Frank Veneroso recently commented on the Asian gold crisis in one of his Gold Watch faxes ( I think we all know how expensive those are ) . Frank concludes that the Asian crisis has negatively impacted the gold price by $60 or more and explains this conclusion as follows:

"The meager 5% increase in global gold demand in the 4th qtr '97 despite a huge decline in the dollar gold price is attributable to the Asian currency crisis."

"What would have happened had the Asian currency crisis not occurred? The demand pattern of the first half would have persisted into the second half. The 4th qtr 1996 average gold price was just below $380. A 12% price decline from below $380 translates into a gold price of $330 - $335. Such a price level would have generated close to a 14% demand increase versus the 5% increase that in fact materialized in the 4th qtr of 1997. At $300-$310 gold in the 4th qtr of 1997, supply was 5% above the 4th qtr of 1996 level. In effect, the 14% increase in demand that would have materialized at $330-$335 would have exceeded the 4th qtr1997's 5% increase in supply. Therefore a higher price than $330-$335 would have been needed to reduce price elastic demand to that level of supply."

"Given our estimates of price elastisities of demand, we would have needed a much higher price than $330-$335 to generate a lower increase in demand that would have equaled the 4th qtr 1997 5% increase in supply...It does not seem unreasonable to us to estimate that, without the Asian crisis more than a $350 price would have been needed to ration price elastic demand overall supply, despite the level of producer and official selling that occurred in that quarter."

"Because of Korean dishoarding in 1998, the negative impact of the Asian currency crisis intensified in Jan and Feb. This may have reduced the gold price by almost another $15 to the $290 level. Overall, judging from the World Gold Council's 4th qtr 1997 demand data, we can attribute more than $60 of the decline of the gold price of the last 6 qtrs to the Asian crisis."

Frank concludes by saying that dishording in Korea and the other Asian countries is largely over, therefore two- thirds of the total adverse impact of the Asian crisis on the gold price is now behind us. By mid-year, Frank expects most of the adverse impact emulating from Asia to have been completely abated.

According to James Blanchard, editor of Gold Newsletter, in the meantime world monetary inflation ( as opposed to price inflation ) is soaring, particularly in Asia and this will cause an increase, not a decrease in Asian gold demand.

Go Gold!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:18 - ID#347447)
Many thanks for the Deflation 101 Class. Now I know why they call it a "Depression." Parts of that sounded like some phases of my business career. Not to blow my own horn ( while I can barely blow my own nose ) but I did warn some friends and associates ( mostly in RE at the time ) in the mid 1980's that the major danger to America was DEflation, and that the only thing keeping the country out of it was the chronic massive deficits ( I am a Kondratieff Wave believer, as you might imagine ) . I have no doubt that Mr Greenspan's green-span of 9% per annum is continuing where the massive deficits left off ( notr that I believe for a moment they have, but SOMEBODY in government seems to think so ) , and I really believe, like Brother Aurophile, that the brunt of the "De"flation is here, and somewhat behind us, and that any paper market collapse will be final symptoms compensated by devaluation and resulting defacto inflation. Inflationary "symptoms" as a result of these policies. The cleansing of a true deflation has not been allowed as there is no hard asset behind currency these decades to allow nature to take its course. We will slip and slide, but INflation is chronic, ( Classical Austrian Economics definition: ANY increase in notes over specie to back it up ) will NOT be arrested ( only reined to a slower pace every now and then, and will doubtless be the massive "antidote" to the apparent collapse of paper values and the cruel impact that will have on business. It all sounds so contradictory, I'm sure, but I guess what I'm saying is simply that the best investment in a "total collapse" scenario is printing presses and green ink. I DO agree, as you may have noted, that the primo asset worth buying is gold, have said it for the past year and continue to. ( Jim "Rubber" Rogers to the contrary not withstanding ) . But anytime you want to instruct me, I'm all ears ( or eyes, I guess ) . I need all the help I can get.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:18 - ID#224149)
Touching the Stars
Mike Sheller ---I cant stop laughing ----Your Great ---Away for more Laughing Pills

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:19 - ID#57236)
Down day for markets and precious metals -- can't go up every day.
aurator: Just called an A. Sutton in Phoenix, AZ. Hope he is the right one, and he will call back. Ever hear of his Phoenix letter? I can guess what's in it if he still publishes.

all: Anyone notice that Hewlett - Packard went up 4.68 today? Computer stocks are going through the roof. Flight to safety, perhaps? Or, the beginning of that final blowoff, driven by the computer stocks? Good thing I still have some computer equities. The USS Titanic ( market ) has a way to go before it hits one of those 50 mile wide icebergs.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:21 - ID#347447)
tolerant, LGB
tol: THIS ring I gotta see. May even neglect my fish n' chips for that one.

LGB: My hearfelt sympathy and empathy over your flood. I know what a damned nuisance that can be in a home. Wishing you a speedy cleanup.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:23 - ID#252127)

There is talk over at SI that CB's may not get their gold loans paid back. See message #10511 and excerpts from Guardian article at their "Gold Price Monitor Discussion Group".

Prime Resources Group reports $0.15 first quarter profit.

I speculate at what a joint announcement of CB's saying they will only sell gold amonst themselves and no londer sell gold to balance supply/demand would do to the gold price.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:23 - ID#340459)
Most of European markets were down 2 - 3%, I think that some big boys do not want a
general stampede into Gold before they have consolidated themselves.

I think that stock markets will steadily decline during summer. The repeat of Swiss Announcement is for naive. We just need to hold firm and stay the course. Victory belongs to the patient...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:26 - ID#340302)
@LGB...You're Back for More???? OK, here it comes...
LGB states:

If horse were wishes, then beggars would ride.

However, when the market corrects, as it inevitably will, only a small portion of the "scared" money will find it's way into PM's. It will certainly propel the PM's higher, it will certainly mean better days ahead for PM investors, such as you and I. But it will NOT mean wholesale stampede of the American or worldwide populace into PM's. Have the Asians rushed to Gold in their crises? They've done the OPPOSITE. Dishoarding, voluntarily turning it over to their governemnt ( in Korea's case ) , etc.
F* states:

Just as in the early Nineties, it seemed impossible to conceive of a stock market at 9000, then I suggest that it is not in any way shape or form hard to imagine gold at a similar figure ( just as Mr. ANOTHER has stated in the past ) . We are certainly living in existential times.

Remember one important thing: those Asian countries ( Korea and Thailand ) that dishoarded gold did so at the instigation and under the strong influence of the IMF, George Soros, and the American government. In other words, they dishoarded gold in order to preserve the extant hegemony of the American -styled, global, capitalist system..with its lucrative currency speculation and all.

However, the net effect of those two countries dishoarding their gold is this:

1 ) It validated the significant value of gold in an economic collapse for the entire world to see.

2 ) It provided an impetus for Asian countries to sit down at the table and discuss economic union analogous to European Union.

3 ) It showed the Asians that, once such economic union is accomplished, the new Asian Currency Standard MUST be supported by gold reserves.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:30 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel
I said "If wishes were horses....." get it right man! Go gold....

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:31 - ID#240120)
Hold on to your hats !
The stock market FEELS to me like it's warming up for a 'black Monday'

Don't look down.

G o G o l d

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:32 - ID#269409)
@ Mike Sheller
Thank you kind sir...with 4 kids it's a gonna be a nightmare. We have to move into a couple o' motel room for a few weeks while they decimate and reconstruct the place! Not fun with all these kids but we'll try and make an "advneture" out of it. Saves a bit on the "chores" at least! ( Now how are we going to avoid the e coli while eating our meals out...? )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:33 - ID#288369)
Sorry to read of the water mess ( the worst! ) ....yuk! Take the promotion, put a great guy in your old his butt off.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:33 - ID#317193)
Shorts-maybe next week
Shorts-your not even worth hanging around to watch-I'm goin' golfing. Come on get naked. Tom

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:34 - ID#349235)
chas - Allegheny's Home Page
My message sent to you came back undelivered, so I'll just put it here for you. Thanks for the new info re: Aly this morning.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:35 - ID#266105)
@dd/hgmcy/rangy 4/24

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:37 - ID#340302)
@LGB...horses are wishes or wishes are horses...
...hackneyed old expressions are all the same to me.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:39 - ID#410198)
The only reason not to buy Gold is Y2K no problem,Euro no problem,bubble economy no problem and the

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:42 - ID#298259)
Same old same old...NOT. See it is possible to argue a point and still be civil about it. Hope we see more of this from you. This is what makes Kitco such a great place.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:43 - ID#340302)
@ALL...One More Notable Observation for the Morning...
When the stock market was collapsing back in Oct. '97, IBM stepped in and announced a huge share buyback. This fact, along with large U.S. government purchases of S & P futures, immediately reversed the stock market tumble and sent it back into a full scale roar upward.

Yesterday, COMPAQ announced an enormous 100 million share buyback, in order to provide the yesteray's collapsing NASDAQ and tech stocks in general a major boost.

Look at the result:

Today, COMPAQ stock is up a mere 1/4 of a dollar while both the DOW and NASDAQ are in full throttle drop.

What does it mean?

I think you can figure it out.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:44 - ID#246224)
Along those - "ain't enough cash" - lines ..
If even a few people ( 1% ) freak out and start pulling cash out of the 'system' then at some point the government will stop or severly constrain this by Executive Order. When that happens THEN you will see complete and unadultered panic like you have never seen it before. People will try to buy anything they can via check or credit card. Goods will vanish over night. Then people will realize that they are completely trapped and sealed in their fate.

Meanwhile banks, credit and merchant corporations will recognize that the number one asset against which loans are secured has become worth alot less than it was the week before. Why? Because today's real estate market valuations are a child of debt. If mortgage loans are jeapordized because of societal instabilities ( bank runs, uncertain economic future because of Y2K ) then there will be far fewer loans and the housing market will collapse.

How many people actually own their homes outright? Very few do. If you had 50% of the priciple left to pay and your house lost 75% of its value because of a crash in mortgage lending then were would you be? And your neighbors? And all those home equity loans piled on top of the 'asset value of your home' that just went "~poof~"?

This will make people VERY ugly indeed.

My guess is that we have until Fall of this year to position ourselves in an appropriate manner, quietly. It may come sooner or later ( early Fall through early Winter ) in terms of bank problems ( cash shortages ) . But by 1/1/1999 we will see significant news about Y2K failures. I think the average person will not make the connection until they start looking at buying calenders for 1999. I went to my local office supply store and could only find one year planners ( or less ) . Most people think of the future in terms of the next pay check or two, maybe a couple of months in advance. The only people who think multi-year anymore are farmers. Even they tend to only think 'next planting' - ie seasonally.

As far as gold and silver? Would anyone then sell these for merely paper money knowing that the government which issued such money could in no way effectively collect taxes or pay its outstanding bonds? In a prior post I wrote that 'gold and silver would be worth the entire world'. This was remonstrated. But think about it for a minute: gold and silver would be the only real money. Paper money would be like 'script' and corespondingly devalued ( ie - the paper price of real things would be much, much higher ) . There would be alot of need for real money and not much of it. So it would be corespondingly revalued upward in realtionship to other real things. We may indeed get back to a place where 1 oz of silver would buy an acre of good bottom land, etc.

And gold would be the most precious of all ...

If we consider an extreme destruction of Gross Product to subsistence levels ( a reducion of 75% ) and the need to use silver and gold for real money in transactions for 50% of the remaining economy ( the other 50% being in the form of barter ) Then extant silver and gold coinage would escalate in value until they represented the real things traded ( approx 12% of today's Gross Product. Equalibrium would only occure when the value of the goods traded were equally represented by the value of the real money used in transactions.

This is a stupid scenario but helpful in thinking about a unique situation which may, more or less, play out.

As always: buy physical gold and silver, and have your cash in hand! ( as well are some 'rubber, shrimp and lumber'! 8- ) )

First runs on banks to cash out. Then runs on stores to buy anything via checks and credit cards. ( cash would become more valuable at this point ) AS signs of significant governmental paralysis proliferate then 'money' would devalue ( need more and more to buy real things ) and PM's begin to ascend in their purchasing power of other real things ( as well as sky rocket in terms of paper money ) .

All, of course, IMHO. All disclaimers apply. This post has been labelled "DOOMSAYER" and caution should be observed in its use. Wear appropriate protective clothing ( including Kevlar body armor if you say that you agree with this in a public forum ) .

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:45 - ID#368244)
Can you spell gold? It 's spelled ( BIS ) , and wait till they spring their surprise on the US dollar. It's payback time and I think it's almost here.

Better get in while you can!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:45 - ID#401460)
Commodity Research Bureau Index 225.25 +1.01 +0.5%

What if Gold & Oil were up today?
This is a nice increase with Gold down.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:52 - ID#368244)
@ Allen
Made the exact same point a month ago. Hot money is pouring in now, next comes the really smart investors , lastly will be ma and pa Kettle, but it will be toooooooooo late.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:57 - ID#345176)
Some people can never forget - HOW SAD!
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 12:59
RETIRED SOLDIER ( @ Allen ) ID#347235:
Our "Aisian Friends have never been solicitous about our well being,


Retired Soldier,

This Japanese generation is not responsible for PEARL HARBOR.

We greatly regret what whites did to the balcks in the US years ago, but you and I we are not responsible for it.

We greatly regret what the Nazis did to the Jews, but present day Germany is not responsible for it.

Catholics greatly regret the burning of humans on a pole in the inquisition, but today's Catholics are not responsible for it.

Hatred is not going to create a good international PM forum at Kitco.

Lets forgive and forget.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 13:59 - ID#288369)
I suppose that it's okay for me to jump on little Jimmy Rogers now....since Mike did....He's either for us or he is against us!....where is that little bow-tied rubber-tongued twirp? The Sword wants to know... Promey, stay out of this....this is personal....

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:04 - ID#246224)
Retired Soldier, Isure, LGB (Liberator of Gold Bugs)
Retired Soldier - t'was a'jokie' between me and TYoung. OKie Dokie? Besides the ones who did that are almost all dead, it was the Japanese not all Asians and the war is over already. Certainly Hiroshima and Nagasaki were sufficient for your revenge, no? Let it go. There are plenty of enemies out there ..

Isure - as always I can only claim redundancy and not originality. Let the 'HOT' money come on down !!!

LGB - most in sympathy and empathy with you over your recent calamities ( "when one part suffers.." ) . Will make supplication on your behalf. Look for His parables for you in these things.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:05 - ID#251166)
ALL -- Re. Dow
Has anyone noticed the decline in volume in April? cf. --$INDU&TABLES=CHART_EXTEND&SOURCE=htx/http2_mw

Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:06 - ID#209265)
Followup on Japan, Mexico &tc.

You're right that Europe and Mexico ( and China and ASEAN ) have a lot riding on Japan too. I've been seeing intimations that one bugbear that is giving central bankers many a sleepless night is Mexico, which may implode if the price of oil doesn't improve. Have you heard about the recriminations going on between the US Senate Finance Committee and the Treasury Dept. over a report that was withheld from the committee? The treasury Dept. found that Clinton, Gore and some political appointees intervened in 1994 to prevent the Dept. from releasing information about the impending crisis in Mexico. If you recall, after the crisis finally did break out, Clinton undertook a politically risky end-run around Congress ( which was refusing to suppourt a taxpayer-funded bailout ) by using the discretionary Currency Stabilization Fund to do the bailout. That was the same fund he used to buy S&P 500 futures during the 1996 campaign.

Please don't get the idea I'm saying that Japan wants to trash the economies of the US or anybody else. What has happened is that the US has gotten away with inflating and suffering no apparent consequenses by exporting its debt. Of course, that can't go on forever. They are now demanding that the Japanese not call in that debt so that the party can continue in the US.

Japanese officials must privately be seething that the Americans are selfishly refusing to countenance even a mild economic slowdown at home, while Japan faces destitution and possible economic chaos.

It's not a matter of Japan trashing the US economy, it's a matter of being allowed to do just enough to balance out their respective interests. Unfortunately, though, both Clinton and Rubin are acutely aware that WJC's political survival depends on the economic party continuing at home- so look for the irresistable force to meet the immovable object as the problems besetting the world's largest and the world's second-largest economies resolve themselves in some fashion that could lead to a series of revolutionary events.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:07 - ID#36156)
From one retired soldier to another; please, Sir, do not open that thread!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:08 - ID#347235)
@ Myrmidon
You can forgive the Nazis and Japanese if you want to, I lost too many relatives in the Holocaust and the War in the Pacific to have any good fellings toward either. Also they are largely responsible for our present situation in the Mrket due to their restrictive trade policies and DUMPING cheap goods over here which virtually destroyed many of our industries, Remember Ansco, Argus and the Better Kodak Cameras
Speed Graphic Cameras, AMERICAN MADE radios, Tvs, the list is endless. I still say scroomall.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:10 - ID#26793)
@Chas, Carl
Carl a very nice chart confirming all the trends. Chas: that is a yearly chart showing averages. I don't think you can use it for trading purposes. You need to see daily figures, perhaps weekly. Carl also suggests a ten week moving average. I still do not have a sell signal but came awfully close yesterday. So far today we have backed off to a point that I will continue to hold.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:12 - ID#266105)

As I highlighted in my gold report last night, Wall Street's strong attack today on the gold equities negative beta was forecast to me by my Eastern friend last night.


Beta is a measure of volatility, a benchmark index such as
the S&P 500 by definition has a volatility of 1.00. Equities
demonstrating greater or less volatility than the benchmark
index would have a volatility rating of more or less than 1.00.
They would not demonstrate a negative volatility or beta, the
minimum volatility or beta rating is 0.00, no volatility.

R2-- A measurement of how closely the portfolio's performance
correlates with the performance of a benchmark index such as the
S&P 500. R2 is a proportion which ranges between 0.00 and 1.00.
An R2 of 1.00 indicates a perfect correlation to the benchmark
index, that is, all of the portfolio's fluctuations of the index,
while an R2 of 0.00 indicates no correlation. Therefore, the lower
the R2, the more the fund's performance is affected by factors
other than the market as measured by that benchmark index.

The R2 of gold funds comprised of gold equities has been
in the neighborhood of 0.00, plus or minus a few hundredths of
a percent for at least ten years, indicating that for all practical
purposes the price movements in gold equities bear no correlation
to a benchmark index such as the S&P 500.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:12 - ID#384350)
Jonesy, Dow volume, CBS link
I would think that the volume at this link may only compose of the 30 stocks in the DJIA or that they are missing a digit.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:17 - ID#345176)
@ Retired soldier

No Sir, I DO NOT FORGET and FORGIVE THE NAZIS for what they did to the Jews, but I do not hold against modern Germany what their cruel leaders did.

The same applies for Japan,

The same applies for the dark ages Catholics

The same applies for any crazy leader of a nation. ALAS, we can not condemn some crazy's actions to all coming generations.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:17 - ID#251166)
Re. Dow Chart
Not working directly. Must go to --

-- then click on the symbol --


-- at the left of the top listed Dow Industrial

Once again -- Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:19 - ID#288399)
Nikkei vs. Dow
Dow down 100 points. Doesn't it seem as if when Nikkei goes up, the "liquidity" ( ha! ) is sucked out of the Dow? Or is it just me?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:20 - ID#31868)
Studio_R -
Your judgement is without peer, throttle the little bastard if you have arrived at such a conclusion. Your being a homey is OK with me and mine...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:26 - ID#253153)
Just a bit of history
In 1929, the Dow topped on Sep 3 at 385, ten weeks later on Nov 13
it was at 195. Then a 50% retracement of the decline took place over a period of 6 months. In April 1931 after the retracement, it started down again and did not bottom until July 1932 at 41. This was the ultimate bottom in those days. If we had topped on April 21,98 at 9220 ( intra day )
then wa are looking at a very long decline ahead of us.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:26 - ID#288369)
@T#1.......I was becoming a bit jealous of your praise of Mike.....
I feel better now......AND Now, The Sword calls the name "JIMMY ROGERS". Bring him forth!....Stick out your rubber tongue...SWISH!!!! ( golden silence ) . It is done.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:27 - ID#433142)
Had been anticipating an $8-$10 jump in Comex gold during the last half hour of trading today - oh well . . . a close near $314 is acceptable. ( I'll guess I'm willing to absorb a $5/week rise per week for the balance of '98 ) . Let's see . . . $5 X 32 = $160 + $314 = $474.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:28 - ID#340302)
With gold down today around a mere dollar, it is quite interesting to observe the essential non-reaction of gold longs to announcements of "imminent" gold sales such as today's Swiss National Bank declaration.

The tired old rumors are meaningless to astute gold longs who now realize the inherent falseness of such gold short agit-prop.

What gold longs are discovering, in fact, is that various central banks have loaned out far too much gold ( well in excess of actual holdings ) with almost no hope of recovering the gold immediately from the open market in the event of a short-term gold BUY PANIC.

What does it mean?

It means that, unless major global financial institutions can scare down the gold price to a much greater extent, they will be forced to buy back gold at much higher prices in order to cover their excess loans.

Therein lies yet another central reason that WALL STREET IS TERRIFIED OF A GOLD BULL.

( Alrifht, TYoung, is that euphemistic enough for you? )



(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:32 - ID#340302)
@ALL...This is NOT euphemistic....



(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:40 - ID#288369)
Which Monday? Am I rich?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:42 - ID#368244)
@ Farfel
To buy that which is not for sale can indeed be expensive. I bet that Munk and friends never get to buy their 1000 tons! I do not believe that

any central bank will sell gold where it hits the open market.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:42 - ID#254269)
@ farfel; re your 14.28 A question (and maybe this has been covered in the past).
Which CB's have done the excessive lending ? And, what is the particular significance if specific CB's are " it up to their necks ". Thanks in advance.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:44 - ID#347235)
@ Myrmidon
Once again you and I have gotten off into the rough I am sorry. But
if you study the trade agreements between Japan and Europe since the war you will find that they are very one sided and that is the root cause of our trouble with trade deficits and why they have more of our currency and bonds than when do. I left out American Motors in the last post, you will remember they made pretty good autos for the price, I owned 3 of them before I could afford a Cadillac, which incidentally I would push before driving a rice burner. The reason they are in such a position of strength now is the Marshall Plan which rebuilt both of those countries after WWII and this is the thanks we get. We should have left them to thier own devices. I think they would have done ok. But they would not be in a position to crush us now.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:44 - ID#410198)
They call themselves PROGRESSIVES,english translation stinking COMMIES in congress check this list

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:44 - ID#284255)
Dow down enough? Could it be the PPT
With the dow accelerating past the -100 point mark
And the PREM dropping to below 3
It looks like it was time to stop the markets falling.
So the prem is pushed up above 6
Massaging the futures?

Will this be enough to slow the selling wave?
How many times will they massage these indices?
To control the descent.

Great visionary piece.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:46 - ID#342315)
Steve in TO re your 14:06
Very astute appraisal of this situation. What do you do when your back is to the wall!!?? There has been some political positions dumped by financial considerations. Looking forward to this resolution. Thanx Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:46 - ID#339274)
FWIW It is time to buy some Drooy at 3 1/2.Happy trading

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:49 - ID#210235)
@Ain't it a lovely day?
T1 - having trouble visualizing a 2 oz. ring. Doesn't it get hot and
sweaty under all that metal?

Studio - go get ol'rubber tongue! Don't forget his shoes.

Steve in TO - Reverse that and you'll catch what I was trying to say.
Japan has alot riding on the rest of the world. Investments abroad
was their big diversification plan in the 80's. Now they need to see
us continue to prosper and keep their banks and factories going out

Mike Sheller - Monetarism usually works. Didn't work in the early 30's
though. Contrary to popular belief, money was not tight, the money
supply actually grew 3 - 5 % per annum. BUT people took over a billion
dollars of actual money out of banks between late 29 and fall of 31. This
money ended up under mattresses, rocks, etc. Banks had that deer-in-the-
headlights look. Interest rates were dead low, but banks refused to lend
their cheap money. Deflation, like inflation, is a self-feeding mechanism
that is very difficult to reverse by fiat. ( or fiat money )

The reason I've been dwelling on this, besides the statistics that are
staring us in the face ( PPI deflating in 10 of 15 industrialized nations first quarter '98 ) , severe commodity deflation, etc, the #1 reason is recent predictions of Y2K chaos, which may well have the result of banks unable or refusing to lend, people pulling money out of banks.

Personally, I'm voting for a soft landing. I love good times. But Donald
and Sharefin have their telescopes out and what they're seeing isn't

My kids are accusing me of laughing ( HARHARHAR ) like a pirate, and wonder
what in the heck's come over me. Don't want me doing this in front of
their friends. Don't know what to tell them!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:52 - ID#210235)
@Steve in TO
Sorry, forgot to add that your analysis looks very right to my brain.
Which may or may not be good news. Still, MHO is all I've got.

Studio! What! You got him already! I type too slow.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:53 - ID#251166)
ALL -- Re. Dow Chart -- again . . .
Dad gummit, this is embarassing. Forget the url. Open the attached chart ( color removed, size reduced ) and look at the volume graph running across the bottom.

Once again again -- Daily trading volume since November '97 ran in the 600M share range until around April 1, when it dropped to below the 100M share range and has since remained. Is this correct? What does this mean?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:58 - ID#266105)

The volume on the NYSE typically trades in the 600M range.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 14:58 - ID#345176)
@ Retired soldier

You brought out a very good point regarding trade agreements with Japan.

The one to blame is our government, the Japanese took what we offered them. Wouldn't you do the same if you were Japan? Don't tell me you wouldn't.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:00 - ID#288369)
@Promey.....picture that kid in "A Christmas Story" after he stuck his tongue on the flagpole?
Say, Jimmy, those are nice shoes you've got there!....what size are they?....."duh a' da dah" ....Huh? I can't understand you, Jimmy. Speak, up, Jimmy!

Mike Stewart
(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:01 - ID#270253)
XAU triggers sell signal for Bonds
I once read an article that showed when Prec Metals stocks are up more than 33% over a 13 wk period, bonds are very weak for the next six months. It was highly reliable.

Well, it triggered a sell signal at the end of last week, so bonds should be much lower in October. No one here would have such things in their portfolio would they?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:01 - ID#330175)
Watch the 'Jimmy-comments' eh~~~~~~

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:01 - ID#288399)
CNBC et al
When Sue and Ron and Bill and Ted and Mark and Maria look into the camera with such studied sincerity and calm reassurance and tell you, "the Dow's off it's lows", remember, they've ( literally ) got their lives on the line at Fort Lee, New Jersey. Can you imagine what it would be like to be one of them 2 years from now if the market goes to 4,000? Re: Jim Rogers and gold. Does anyone else remember him saying on CNBC, "gold's not considered money any more, everyone knows that" ?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:03 - ID#251166)
@ 2BR02B?
So you're saying the chart is incorrect?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:05 - ID#200235)
All gold stocks under selling pressure today
It surely looks to me as though there is a concerted attempt to draw down the recent surge in PM stocks. My question is can this be attributed to profit taking or maybe something more sinistser. Any comments would be appreciated.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:08 - ID#342315)
Themissinglink re coins
If gold gets anywhere near $6000/oz, besides junk silver coins there may be a need for little gold wafers of 5 - 10 grains. The amount of junk silver is limited, but gold is relatively less so. There has got to be a way to do your grocery shopping etc. Figure out the daily shopping costs and how much per grain @ $5000 to 10,000 /oz. It would be hard to make change on even a 1/10 oz coin. I would hate to have to cut these to pay the bill. What do you think? Thanx, Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:11 - ID#27499)
The ABCs of EURO by Vicky Barnett
If Vicky had been around here, her story would have been even better!



COMING OF EMU: Watch out, dollar

The euro could become an international currency with real clout more quickly than many people are expecting, argues Vicki Barnett

The introduction of the euro will transform Europe. But the creation of the world's second largest currency area will also have a huge impact on the global financial system. What is still unclear is whether the euro's influence will be primarily regional or whether it will come to rival the dollar as an international currency. The answer has important implications for both Europe and the US.

The US dollar has dominated the international finance system for nearly a century. Because of its extensive use by third parties, its importance in global financial transactions far exceeds the US's 27 per cent share of world output ( see chart ) . The dollar accounts for 56 per cent of the world's foreign exchange reserves; 48 per cent of export invoicing; and participates in more than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions.

It is no accident that just one currency has gained pre-eminence. As the use of a currency rises, the market becomes more liquid and transaction costs fall, inducing even more people to use it. Once a currency becomes widely used, it is hard to dislodge. Neither the yen nor the D-Mark has made significant inroads into the dollar's dominance. So why should the euro be any different?

A big factor will be the sheer size of the euro area. The 11 prospective members have a combined gross domestic product of $6,300bn, against the US's $8,100bn. The euro area will be the world's largest importer and exporter, excluding intra-EU trade. And if, as planned, Emu is extended to all 15 EU countries, the euro area will become the world's largest economy.

A huge economy means a huge new capital market, with much lower transaction costs. And, unlike Japan, Europe's capital markets are fully open to foreign investors. The effect on liquidity will be dramatic. Avinash Persaud, head of currency research at J.P. Morgan, predicts that "transaction costs will collapse overnight". This will immediately make the euro more attractive as a vehicle currency for trade and foreign exchange.

The unification of the European currencies will also lead to economies of scale, making it more likely that foreign companies exporting to Europe will use the new currency to denominate their trade. Say, for example, a Japanese company exports 10 per cent of its output to Germany, 5 per cent to France and 5 per cent to Italy. Before Emu, the trade would probably be transacted in dollars because of the expense of dealing in several different currencies. But after Emu, with a fifth of its exports going to the euro area, it might well switch.

All this means the euro's use as a vehicle currency could quickly expand. In particular:

Effects could be felt first in those countries expected to join the next wave of Emu - the UK, Sweden, Denmark and Greece. Hillary Thompson, head of European strategy at NatWest, says many European companies will ask their UK suppliers to invoice them in euros. Several of NatWest's larger UK clients, which have European-oriented businesses, have been discussing plans to switch their operations entirely into euros.

Many suppliers in non-Emu countries could end up operating in euros to keep their customers happy - what Ms Thompson calls the "euro supply-chain effect". She believes the euro could become a quasi-domestic currency in the UK "within two to three years". This process is already beginning. Last week, British Steel became the second large UK company - ICI was the first - to announce that it would ask its suppliers to accept payment in euros.

The euro is also likely to be widely used in eastern Europe and, to a lesser extent, north Africa, where many local currencies are already pegged to European currencies.

It may start to be used in transactions between the euro area and countries outside Europe. Currency transactions between Japan and Europe, for example, are almost always intermediated through the dollar, while most exports from Asia to Europe are also invoiced in the US currency. As the euro gains momentum, this could change.

Many of the world's central banks may also reduce their high concentration of dollar holdings by switching to euros. Central banks want greater diversification in their currency portfolios, particularly after many made big losses when the exchange rate of the dollar plunged in the late 1980s.

The euro's greater liquidity and lower transaction costs ( compared with individual European currencies ) will be a big attraction: a prime consideration in choosing a reserve currency is its effectiveness for intervening in foreign exchange markets.

The denomination of a country's trade is also an important influence in the choice of currency. This means that any shift towards using the euro in trade will have a knock-on effect for the desirability of euro reserves.

Given these expected changes, most economists agree that, sooner or later, the euro will achieve international status. The question is when. The most common view is it will take some time. Martin Brookes, international economist at Goldman Sachs, thinks that, although a bipolar financial system is economically logical, "it will take a very long time before there is a big shift to the euro". And the International Monetary Fund, in last October's World Economic Outlook, said the new currency would only achieve international status "in the medium to longer-term".

The reasons most often cited for such caution are that the economic stability of the euro area has yet to be proven, while European capital markets are considerably smaller than their US counterparts.

But neither factor should have a decisive impact. On the first point, it is true that an international currency needs the support of a stable economy. True also that the euro area could suffer significant economic turbulence in the transition period. But these will be primarily structural problems concentrated in pockets of overheating or regions of persistently high unemployment.

Such problems will not matter to international holders of euros so long as the overall macroeconomic performance of the euro area is stable and inflation remains reasonably low. And, with the European Central Bank likely to play it very safe as it establishes its reputation, continuing low inflation seems probable.

The second argument against the euro's rapid rise - that European capital markets are too small - is more relevant. The European domestic securities market is only two-thirds of its US equivalent. And without a central government bond issuer, European fixed income markets will remain more fragmented than in the US. In this, the early entry into Emu of the UK, with its deep financial markets, will be crucial.

There is a counter view to the idea that the euro will take a long time to mature. Some economists suggest the sudden fall in transaction costs will lead to the rapid adoption of the euro worldwide. "The euro will become an international currency within a matter of months, not years," says Mr Persaud of J.P. Morgan.

Academics Richard Portes and Hlne Rey, in a paper recently published by London's Centre for Economic Policy Research*, share this view. They suggest that the shock Emu will bring to the international financial system "is likely to be substantial and relatively sudden".

The internationalisation of a currency is not just a status symbol. It has significant economic and political implications. First, the issuer of such a currency gains a direct economic benefit in the form of seigniorage: in exchange for almost costless notes, the issuer receives real resources - net imports. A second benefit is the greater liquidity in the bond markets that results from internationalisation: this lowers yields, cutting the costs of borrowing for both governments and companies.

A rapid rise in demand for the euro would also affect the euro exchange rate. Unless it were offset by an equally rapid rise in the amount of euro assets issued, it would exert a powerful upward influence.

The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro will become the most important in the world. But the US and the EU, being relatively closed economies, are unlikely actively to manage their exchange rates. This combination of factors has led Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, to warn that a "quantum leap in transalantic co-operation" will be needed to avoid a damaging increase in exchange rate volatility**.

So far, American policymakers seem unconcerned at the potential challenger to their currency's dominance. "The dollar will remain the primary reserve currency for the foreseeable future," Larry Summers, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in a speech last year. "We expect the impact of the euro on the monetary system to be quite limited initially and to occur only gradually".

Mr Summers and the rest of the US establishment, it seems, may be in for a surprise.

* The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency by Richard Portes and Hlne Rey, in EMU: Prospects and Challanges for the Euro", CEPR April 1998

** The Dollar and the Euro by C Fred Bergsten, Foreign Affairs Volume 76 no 4

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:11 - ID#25171)
Although CB are definetely huge in the repo and might have lent a fair share of their reserves , I think most if not all can t lend more than their holdings for regulatory reasons.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:12 - ID#288369)
@shlomo, TeddO........
shlomo....I remember it. There won't be a CNBC channel two years from Maybe a ENBC? ( exercise channel ) Isana needs a workout. much time we got, pal? Is tomorrow our next to the last Saturday Morning Club meeting? geeze...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:13 - ID#342315)
Donald re Carl's chart
I would really like to have the same in at least a weekly. Maybe we can get Carl to do one. I would also like to have your strategy applied to this one till we get the weekly. Many thanx, Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:15 - ID#251166)
ALL -- re. Dow Volume
Today's volume is at 53.3M shares, on par with what it's been since April 1 -- the day of the Japanese Big Bang. Prior to April 1, according to this chart ( vertical bars across the bottom ) , daily trading was in the 600M range.

Is this correct? What does this mean?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:22 - ID#286349)
We got to get those dipsters on our side!
Dipsters working hard to bring the Dow Back...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:23 - ID#25171)
The reason behind the rise in $/yen besides the uneffectiveness of their new package is a rumor of TOKAI being bankrupted.It started like that for YAMAICHI

If the rumor is confirmed next week will see a 5/10 % retracement in the S&P

With a little luck the threat of a systemic collapse could bring a serious rise in POG.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:34 - ID#252150)
Swiss AU Sales not exactly a surprise-I posted 3 days ago
Date: Tue Apr 21 1998 16:25
James ( SF gaining on the $U.S.=Not good news ) ID#252150:
The Swiss economy has been in a funk for several years now & the only engine of growth
they have is exports. The last time the SF started to strenghthen against the $U.S., the Swiss
responded with news of possible AU sales-with devastating effect.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:35 - ID#266105)

Yesterday 650 million shares traded on the NYSE,
66 million of which were in the DJIA.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:35 - ID#340459)
I was looking at all the different Stock Indexes and was surprised to find that PM stocks indexes
were DOWN the most in % terms in comparision to all other indexes ( they are mostly down under 2% )


$GOX - Gold CBOE - down by 4.6%
$XAU - PHLX - down by 3.4%

The only indexes UP are Internet & Computer Hardware
Any comments

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:38 - ID#347235)
@ Myrmidon
You are right about the trade agreements, they also apply to Europe, if we had had any Sec State,Sec Treas or Sec Commerce not to mention a President with a pair of cojones in the last 50 years we would all be better off. I include ALL of the above in all administrations since the War.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:42 - ID#329157)
Nightmare on Short Street!

Gold loans may leave Bank with bad debts!

Article excerpted from "The Guardian" ( a British newspaper ) , Thursday April 23 1998 - Dan Atkinson

Speculators and dealers who have borrowed British gold reserves worth as much as 300 million British Pounds Sterling may be unable to repay the Bank of England, industry sources warned last night.

A rising bullion price raised the spectre of defaults by borrowers who have enjoyed more than a decade of easy profits in their dealings with central banks.

One senior industry source warned that some of the nation's gold was now in jewellery form, hanging around the necks of overseas consumers, and could not be reclaimed in a crisis.

Central banks, including the Bank of England, have become enthusiastic lenders of bullion during the past 10 years, accepting low interest rates in return for shedding the responsibility of storing and securing their reserves.

As long as the price kept falling, everyone was happy, particularly the speculators who were able to repay the Bank and other central banks with gold that was cheaper than it had been when they had borrowed it.

But the price has moved up 12% since January and was rising again yesterday. Now speculators who borrowed Britain's gold and sold it on to others- including jewellery makers- might have to buy more expensive bullion bars elsewhere to cover their debts. Were significant numbers unable to do so the resulting turmoil could threaten London's pivotal position in the international gold market.

The crunch could be exacerbated by the increasing tendency of all central banks to widen their list of approved borrowers, thus taking in organisations with lower credit ratings. An analyst warned yesterday that credit ratings were all very well during normal times but "gold should be there for an abnormal occasion".

Central banks have traditionally held gold as a "bedrock" asset with which to back their currencies. Only the Swiss franc is still explicitly backed by a given quantity of bullion. However, other trading nations have kept highly visible gold reserves close at hand.

Until this year speculators have enjoyed a one-way bet in their dealings with central banks. They have borrowed gold at a low rate of interest, sold it for dollars and invested the dollars at a higher rate of interest.

When the time came to repay the gold, the price- sliding almost without interruption from its near $1000-an-ounce peak in January 1980- would have fallen further, meaning a tidy gain for the speculators on top of the profit they would have made from investing in dollars.

One analyst said yesterday: "It has been a money machine." Bullion banks and other players had made huge prifits in their dealings with the BAnk of England, he said.

But the gold price has bounced back from an 18-year low in January, and yesterday was up from $307.5 an ounce to $312.75.

One source warned that some bullion banks might be particularly vulnerable, as they were in the position of borrowing short-term from the Bank to lend longer-term to speculators, jewellery manufacturers and others. He added that all involved in borrowing from central banks had behaved as if the price would drop forever and that the loans could always be repaid in cheaper gold.

It is not known what proportion of Britain's 573 tonnes of gold is on loan, but the international average is about 10% of reserves.



Gold loans and deficits caused by short-sales are estimated at 8000 tonnes, according to analyst Frank Veneroso ( see conference call transcript of Tuesday, Dec. 9 1997 ) :
On November 12th, 1997, he claimed that the world gold market's gap between supply and demand was 700 tonnes larger than estimated- so that demand for gold to cover short market positions will eventually send the price of gold soaring.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:45 - ID#280215)
Gold Time Frame Perspective, As well as Jimmy Rodgers
Firstly regarding the gold time frame, today gold DAILY finished down $1.60 despite the swiss sell rumors. Not too shabby, but as Farfel often suggests, some gold bulls or gold bull hopefulls may look at this and get nervous or even down about it.

Keep in mind that for THE WEEK, golds high low and close was 3156, 3076, 3129. It finished near the high for the week up $5.30. For THE MONTH so far, the high, low, and close was 3156, 2990, 3129. It finished as of today way up near the high and is up $12.40 for the month.
All technical indicators for the MONTH and WEEK are surging up strongly. As I've said a few times before about other days, today's DAILY drop was a blip on the overall picture. Not too bad considering the Swiss stuff again. Wouldn't even the slightest rumor of Swiss sales have sent gold tumbling in the past? As Farfel would say, it seems this stuff is really getting old.

Regarding Jimmy Rodgers, isn't this the same guy who last year in his arrogant fashion insisted that 30 year Bonds would never see below 6 for years to come. Last year, this was the same guy who was arguing all last year and before that inflation was just around the corner and tightening was needed. Everyone else was arguing deflation/disinflation. As we saw over this time, deflation is our worry/concern and has been for some time, not inflation. I'm sure he's very smart and a knowledgable investor, but for the life of me I can't figure out why all the genuflecting regarding his views by CNBC and others. I've seen him on CNBC for years, but I really have never heard of him except on CNBC. Can anyone give me a link or a summary about his bio and why he is such a mini celebrity? Thanks in advance!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:46 - ID#251166)
@ 2BR02B?
So the chart is incorrect, you're saying?

If so, then why would CBS Marketwatch change over night ( 3/31/98 ) the recorded volume from that of the whole NYSE to only the Dow? But of course, no one here would know that, would they?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:49 - ID#57236)
World Financial Collapse will make POG go down, not up!
Sequin: No offense, but I do not think you want a world financial collapse, as any involved CB's or governments will be forced to sell gold, if they have any left. That would be the end of the Gold bug Tsunami. And, even those who have gold will suffer, only less so. It will not be pleasant for anyone, as we know from reading Jin's posts.

After the world financial collapse, gold will really shine.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:51 - ID#342315)
Allen re your "floating" $
I remeber a book about Racy Jordan, Maj in AF, about 1950's. He was an inspector at Great Falls AFB for lendlease to Russia. He opened one crate and found Bureau of engraving plates for $100 bills. I emailed Colin Seymour to see if he could find the thread. I can't find my book, but it was definitely here 20 years +/- ago. This could put the "float" of bills at an exponential multiple of what is supposedly known now. I have only the name Racy Jordan, Can you find any connection? Many thanx, Charlie

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:52 - ID#266105)

It is incorrect.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:55 - ID#285121)
Very, Very big Bank index short, take a look.
While looking for a good put option for the BKZ bank index I discovered a tremondous short for Dec.98 bank stocks. BKZXD =3402 contracts. BKZXJ=3030 contracts. Total value $29,818,500. Take a look at CBOE for yourself. This is a very big put option play by someone.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:56 - ID#209265)
Jonesey - rising prices, declining volume
I don't know why volume has dropped so precipitously, and I haven't been able to find anyone who has a plausible explanation for the phenomenon. The Dow has been going up in April, but tentatively, probing new highs, then retracing, it hasn't been in a strong, steamrolling bullish trend like it was before.

You could speculate that the decline in volume has to do with reduced influx into mutual funds after tax deadlines, rather than the Japanese big bang?

I consider TE Carter to be the dean of trend followers ( at least I think his system is the best. ) He says important sign of a waning bull trend is when prices increase on declining volume. This indicates that the institutions that drive the serious moves are out of the market, and the upside is coming from small, unsophisticated investors.

If the heavy hitters don't get back into the market there just won't be enough money in the hands of the pipsqueaks to sustain the bull. Carter says that if prices keep rising with a large drop in volume immediately sell 25 - 50% of your position, depending on how severe the volume drop was, and if the volume doesn't go back up, gradually sell more until you are completely out of the equity.

- Steve

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:57 - ID#251166)
@ 2BR02B?
Thanks. I was starting to wonder if maybe transactions in New York were being diverted to the Nikkei . . . what a thought, huh?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 15:58 - ID#224149)
Momentary Lapse Of Reason
Red Bag Head ---As the World Turns---Your Return favorite Program ----Obviously

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:01 - ID#251166)
@ 2BR02B?
What's your source for NYSE volume?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:03 - ID#31868)
no ring today...Hmmmmmmmmmmm, but all is not lost, Paddington just arrived, we shall sit at the waters edge, and enjoy sandwiches...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:04 - ID#252127)
CJS; Thanx

That may be just what gold needs to light a fire under its precious fanny.
This will make the CB's stop the dangerous practice of gold loans, especially when citizens of the various countries start to protest.
If this is real and materializes as I wish, $20 dollar up days are not out of the question.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:04 - ID#254269)
Correct me if I'm wrong. Jonesy your 15.52. I seem to have read somewhere (WSJ ?), some time
ago, that large NYSE trades can be done ouside the US. As I recall, mostly done by the big houses ( Goldman etc ) . Do not remember the details.
Do not think that is the situation with your graph though.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:07 - ID#25171)
True I don't wish a financial collapse for the sake of my 3 children ( and counting ) .However let's be realistic, it is likely to happen because of the tremendous pile of debt being accumulated and artificially inflating growth.

Most borrowers won't be able to refund lenders and a deep depression might occur.However this won't destroy industrial capacity and the world will survive with a different financial system.

The stock of GOLD in the world grows at 2% per annuum so a monetary system based on GOLD is sustainable.

When the so called baby boomer will realise that their life savings are pure smoke some central banker will have to find real solutions so that the people think such a disaster don't strike again in their lifetime.

Thus not only CB won't sell GOLD , but even if they did , the entire world would be happy to buy it and more as it would be the base of the new financial system.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:08 - ID#266105)

Rodgers was G. Soros' partner when Soros was 'making it.'
There's some variance of opinion about who was calling the
investment shots during that period. Selective recollection
I guess. Other than that I suppose Rodgers' claim to fame
is the ability to make money in markets with purportedly
a mass of wealth accummulated as proof.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:09 - ID#269191)
Swiss gold sales?
I thought they couldn't sell legally without a referrendum.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:10 - ID#31868)
The two ounce thumb ring can be a tad moisture inviting, I prefer not to use the word sweaty, but accept the fact that such is so...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:11 - ID#252127)
Oh yes

"The Guardian" is one of leading newspapers in the United Kingdom.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:13 - ID#31868)
around the hedges at the University, Jimmy will be so full of himself and unaware of the impending doom and wrath of your Golden Sword.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:21 - ID#224149)
From the Profits
Understanding--- How to loose Continually

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:22 - ID#267276)
Gold and Jim Rogers
Gold probably went down today because of Yeltsin getting his man in. As far as Jim Rogers is concerned I just e-mailed him a question on how he could be so down on gold when he believes a currency crisis will occur in the fall. The people of Indonesia, S.Korea and Thialand who bought gold a year ago are very happy today. Rogers e-mail address is He will answer you if you ask intellegent questions.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:23 - ID#31868)
Prometheus - kneeling -
How rude of me, pardon the indiscretion, Truly! a lovely day, but any day is more than wonder-filled when the air about me rings of your conversation.

And now I must go, Paddington is tugging at my coatoff to the waters edge, life is delightful, a picnic with a good friendRatty and Moley were quite correct

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:28 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.97 A year ago the ratio was 19.92. In pre 1934 dollars the Dow is now at 598.81, down 5.14% from its high of 631.26 set on March 20th. We are starting to see the beginings of what may turn out to be a downward channel.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:31 - ID#238295)
According to my work, the stock bull is not in any real danger until gold hits the mid 300s. And this is not likley until summer. Supports Old man's market outlook.

repeat after me -- stocks i'll be nifty until gold hits three fifty.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:32 - ID#341189)
10 wk moving av. of XAU/Gold ( basis wkly closes ) is at .264. Have you received my snail mail?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:32 - ID#267344)
Allen - your 1344 is right on the money
I look at Y2k this way: Isolationism, cash up, e-cash down, gold up, silver up, "deflation," low consumer spending, food supply down, power down, water down, communications down, nuclear warheads up ( worst case senario ) , high-tech industry down, stocks down, treasury bills up, firearms up, land up ( open for debate ) , government intervention confused but up, hospitals down, insurance all screwed up, traffic lights down, traffic up, alchohol and drug use up, complacency down, fury up, air traffic down, shipping lost, disease up, inventories up, peace down, executive orders up, US Constitution down, Bill of Rights down, Declaration of Independence up, etc, etc.

I have already begun implementing my plan. Gold has been accumulated, cash in slowly being withdrawn. In one year, Clone will be completely liquidated, full bellied, armed, and invisible. I do not want to hurt anyone so I will be gone. I am doing this not because I think I am right but because I like to have peace of mind.
- c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:35 - ID#224149)
Right Is Write-----Right
Jimmy is the MAN---Better than Ezara or Failing Flubs

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:37 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .287 A year ago the ratio was .276 and falling toward a buy signal which was reached on December 9th. The high for the week was .297 and I feel that the ratio has ended the week with a healthy relationship between spot and the XAU. If history repeats the ratio will continue to rise toward a sell signal. Contrary comments are invited.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:38 - ID#329157)
Swiss gold sales (@DEJ etc.)
On Friday 24th October, 1997, gold dropped a staggering $16.10/oz to $308.60 after a group of experts appointed by Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Finance Ministry proposed allocating 1,400 out of 2,600 metric tons of gold reserves for purposes other than stabilizing the Swiss franc, i.e. formally abandoning the gold standard. These proposals must be submitted to Parliament, and then also to a popular referendum which won't happen until 1998 or possibly Spring 1999.

Note the date of the announcement: a few days before the last "mini crash". Are we now having deja vu?

Although opinion polls have shown support for much smaller Swiss gold sales to support charitable funds to compensate for Nazi gold hoarding, the sale of gold in abandonment of a Swiss tradition of gold backed
currency is an entirely different matter.

On 5th November, 1997, USA Gold ( ) reported that:
"recent polling in Switzerland over the gold issue showed the Swiss people are opposed by a comfortable margin".

USA Gold also commented that any potential Swiss gold sales are likely
to be much less than 1400 tons and will be made over a 5-10 year period
starting from year 2000.

A drop in gold of $16.10/oz would raise a red flag if it happened without something to explain it. It is surely a very big coincidence that this should happen so close to the record points drop in the Dow on the 27th October 1997. Wouldn't it be a convenient ruse to have the Swiss announcement as a cover for actual gold sales conducted to protect stock markets or currencies against a plunge? After all, no Swiss gold sales actually took place and there are some big ifs about it ever actually

930 tonnes of gold are cleared every working day in London. That is 241,800 tonnes of gold per year, which means that the Swiss disposal of 1400 tonnes amounts to 5.8% of the amount cleared in one year.
Could that reasonably account for a drop of $16?

Was the $16 drop an over-reaction, anticipation of knock-on central bank sales, and/or actual covert gold sales?- decide for yourself.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:43 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 50.63 A year ago the ratio was 72.07

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:44 - ID#224149)
Behind the Times
Old Gold ---If I was 64 The Beatles Time to Switch to some Floyd AMEN

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:44 - ID#252150)
Jim Rogers@Knows something about mkts & trading. He was a multimillionaire
by age 30 & when he quit trading full time in his mid 30's, he was worth
several hundred millions. I highly recommend his book "Investment Biker".

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:45 - ID#384350)
Chas, engraving plates
In the second part of a 2 article series implicating US govt leaders in drug and money laundering, mentions engraving plates, although these were used in the Middle East according to the article.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:48 - ID#288369)
@English fashion (an oxymoron since the sixties):
I know where some of the British gold two daughters are wearing those sovereigns about their necks....quite nicely, I must add. But wherest is our Gold, Sir Charles? Er, I dunt know, mummie.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:53 - ID#228100)
Y2K Crisis is a Coming!!
Anyone remember the Energy Crisis of the 1970s? Many companies that depended on cheap oil and gas went bankrupt. The cost of heating/cooling your home or business skyrocketed. Long lines of people waiting for gasoline. Energy-dependent businesses ( such as steel ) either folded, or passed their increased costs along to consumers. And most importantly: People Panicked. They stopped buying cars and houses. And the price of gold skyrocketed!!

It was great news for a few folks! Oil exploration and production companies started looking for oil everywhere. The Japanese sold millions of small cars with great gas mileage. Westinghouse and GE sold hundreds of nuclear plants worldwide. Construction companies that specialized in renovation were in demand. Insulation companies had more work than they could handle.

The same type of crisis is coming for Y2K! Instead of energy, the commodity will be technology. Who relys on technology? All industries that rely heavily on financial operations. Banks. Insurance companies. Credit Unions. Most bonds and stocks will be in the old crapper.

Companies that supply technology services ( and especially compliant financial products ) will have more customers than they can handle. Baan, Oracle, SAP, ADP, PeopleSoft to name a few. These companies provide super software products that you can customize to operate your entire company. ( Just as TurboTax does your personal taxes, these companies standard products will do your companies taxes, manage your manufacturing inventory, pay your sales staff, etc, etc... ) Companies that CAN AFFORD to are already beginning to trash their existing systems, throw out their old mainframe systems, and install a new standard system.

Last night I received a flyer from my bank. On one side, it advertised a money market account that paid 5.20% for a decent balance. On the other side, it offered a home-equity at 5.60%, with no points. With any rate of defaults, they cant be making much money on that!

Today I heard another 23 year old kid talking about how he was going to make a fortune in the stock market. Its time to get out of stocks and have a good old fashioned recession. It cleanses the economy and gets a lot of stupid people out of business.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:55 - ID#280215)
James and 2BR02B Re: Jim Rodgers
Thanks for your input. I know more now than I did before!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:56 - ID#39971)

Thank you for providing the link to the article.

If we are to assume the outstanding gold loans are similar in countries

with larger reserves ( 10% ) ,then FV's account of the 8000 Tons would surely

have credence worth noting,yes?

Regarding the Swiss ann:They are still very good at timing.This comes

at the same time the EURO is being given wider support in Europe and just

prior to a major meeting next weekend.Tick Tock......Swiss Movement is

taking on a whole new meaning.:- )

LBG:Sorry to hear of your misfortune.Did you have insurance?; )

TSE G&S index off about 3% today on low volume.Profit taking etc.....

Oh...and what's that noise here?Sounds like someone throwing beer cans

from the peanut gallery.Keep ducking.They go away if they can't hit you.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:56 - ID#224149)
Time @Who---When @ Then@Where?
James ---The man that seen the TruthOnly for a Period of Time ----Time---Time ---Time---

(Fri Apr 24 1998 16:59 - ID#339281)
Jim Rogers or Rodgers
I think there are 2 Jims:

one Zen guy with a motorcyle ( Rogers ) ,

another who participated in the Barrons Roundtable earlier in the year.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:06 - ID#201238)
comex data

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 24
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,784,036 - 20,298 troy ounces
Copper 109,151 - 137 short tons

and so the paper shuffle continues

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:07 - ID#224149)
The Man
STUDIO.R ----Buy some Oil Properties ---Soon ---I need the Money ---Away ---You ---The Man

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:09 - ID#210235)
RE Jim Rogers
He is the same guy, Barron's Roundtable regular and Motorcycle Biker.
There are some very funny scenes in that book, by the way.

Started the Quantum Fund w/ George Soros and they made billions ( each ) together. Was a celeb. before CNBC, read his bio years back. He & Soros had a bit of a falling out, and now take bites out of each other, little nips. Soros says Jim is terrific as spotting value but hopeless as a market timer. His endless calls on resurging inflation seem to bear Soros out on that score. Also way too early on buying natural resources, but
he's so rich, who cares?

Never mind Jim. Studio got him with the Golden Sword. 'Nuff said.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:14 - ID#339281)
Motorcycle weather
I'm going to drive my motorcylce with 1 oz Johnson Mathey bars in my pockets and dream I'm as rich as Jim Rogers. I'll read my Roundtable again an re-evaluate Jim's comments.

Now, everyone go home if its after 5.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:15 - ID#288369)
@Promey & PoorBoy........No longer will his rubber tongue flap in the Harley breeze

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:16 - ID#209265)
CJS - Nightmare on Short Street
This whole gold loan thing is one fo the hidden time bombs under the world currency system. I think that one of the psychological crutches that has helped the public maintain faith in fiat currencies is the fact that their central banks always have gold sitting in the basement "in case we need it." Maybe they have no chance of personally getting some hards assets in return for their paper money, but at least the country as a whole has something tangible to provide for a rainy day.

A few incredibly stupid governments, including the current Canadian one, have sold their gold, and used the proceeds to buy themselves some political capital ( Canada's much-trumpeted "balanced budget" was achieved at the cost of our national assets. )

I don't know what the consequences of kicking this last crutch out from under the public will be- but we will soon find out in Argentina, Australia and Canada.

As far as gold loans go, though: the key fact to remember about them is that they became popular because the central banks could keep the gold on their books. The gold is out on loan from the banks, but they still "own" it, even if it's not in their possession.

Gold sales are a political decision, and they have to be done in consultation with the government of the day. Gold loans could be done without going through messy applications to the government, since the books technically stay the same. Governments were informed, of course, and have generally been happy because the loan income makes the central bank results look much better!

Everybody knows that Murphy's Law rules, though, and when you lend out large amounts of something you're just never going to get it all back. To paraphrase Forrest Gump: "Defaults happen!" The article you posted, CJS, confirms what I suspected would happen all along- the central banks are not going to get back a lot of their gold!

When this happens the central banks are going to face two very hard choices: they can either take the losses off their published reserves, at a cost in lost face and lost public confidence, or they can replace the gold and keep their reserve levels intact at a large cost to the national balance sheet. Whether they print the money or borrow it, the cost will probably be more than the income they made from the leasing.

What do you think the results will be?


(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:19 - ID#339281)
STUDIO.R the link settles it
Thanks. Good day.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:20 - ID#222243)
Straddler Re: Jimmy Rogers
Take a look at Investment Biker, a book written by Jimmy Rogers that recounts a trip around the world. It's a good read, full of interesting real world investment observations. He looks at investments from a pretty high distance, a macro perspective. His timing is long term and not always right, then, but his reasons for investing are always worth considering. He is not a bullsh*tter.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:20 - ID#373403)
Gold has already been confiscated. In a conspiracy to end all conspiracies, central banks around the world have rounded up the worlds gold supply save a few hardcore goldbugs. There is no physical metal anywhere!

Paper trading at Comex gives the illusion of a fully functioning market but it will evaporate. Mines have sold forward several years production. The yearlong slump in prices, orchestrated by false central bank selling announcements have driven out most speculators.

When the governing bodies announce the new gold standard, there will be little gold outside of central bank authority. As paper money goes up in smoke, there will be no exit, save hard assets and profitable business for the shocked investor.

Gold has been confiscated without Executive Order.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:21 - ID#266105)

drooy, rangy -4% rangy flat

fsagx, fdpmx -2%

lihry adr -6.5%

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:21 - ID#372262)

Both the Oscillator and the Summation Index are now in FULL SELL MODE!!!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:22 - ID#266105)

Whoops. drooy, hgmcy -4%

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:23 - ID#224149)
So ___Created What ?
STUDIO.R ----And Man set ---The Foot on the MoonNo Music Etc.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:23 - ID#288369)
@The REAL Jimmy Rogers.............. Notice cut 13.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:24 - ID#372262)

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:27 - ID#329157)
Regarding Maj. Racy Jordan and his finding counterfeit dollar printing plates in containers at the Great Falls, Montana export point for lend-lease in 1944-45, the name Racy Jordan doesn't seem to appear in web searching, but I found the following that mentions lend-lease and dollar printing plates ( funny how "New World Order" comes up ) :

"...Showing the Skull & Bones affinity in using the Hegellian ideas of the historical dialectic. Using controlled conflict, thesis versus anti-thesis to create synthesis. A synthesis of their making and design, where the state is absolute and individuals are granted their freedoms by obedience to the state - A New World Order."

"Money and maneuvering, from "Bonesmen" and their allies, helped the
Bolsheviks prevail. And in defiance of federal laws and bureaucrats, the
cabal, financed industries, set up banks and developed oil and mineral
deposits in the fledgling U.S.S.R. Later, Averil Harriman, as minister to Great Britain in charge of Lend-Lease for Britain and Russia was responsible for shipping in entire factories and some people say nuclear secrets, plutonium and U.S. dollar printing plates..."

Excerpt from two sites with the same ( or similar ) text:

If quantities of counterfeit dollars were circulated that long ago, statistics should be available on them and the counterfeits taken out of circulation by now, unless the printing presses were so close to the "real thing" and the right materials used that the dollars were in fact "real dollars". More recent counterfeiting, such as the "superdollar", would be of greater significance now, I would think.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:30 - ID#410198)
themissinglink:call me crazy I look at GOLD the same way I look at FREEDOM
will I surrender either NEVER,except from my clinced cold dead fingers

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:32 - ID#57232)
Appreciate your thoughfully worded post
Sequin: I don't want a financial collapse either, though I know something along those lines is necessary to clear out the underbrush. The Central Banks thought they were doing us a favor by cushioning the deflationary periods of our recessions, and speeding up the market recoveries -- but they weren't. Eventually our debt driven economy will get us.

I don't know how long it will take for us to dust ourselves off, and start over. Our infrastructure should be intact, and the information/computer revolution will give us some considerable resilience that other countries do not have. 'Cold fusion' seems to work as well, though other countries are more advanced in this area than we are. We have much to look forward to.

I do agree with you on one thing -- it would be better to get the underbrush clearing over with soon, as a delay another 10-15 years would only make things worse.

Here's to the human civilization, and our first manned expedition to the stars -- hopefully some of us will still be here to see them off.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:40 - ID#246224)
And a very interesting time it will be. I see a great opportunity in hand cranked generators which run computer systems. Possibly a bicycle attachment with a little light on the front to illuminate the battery gauge ( to maintain the proper current level ) . Two programmer teams: one at the keyboard and the other at the gen-set. They could trade off every half hour or so.

Another great opportunity would be abacus sales, which leads to remedial math tutoring. Increased demand for string and tin cans to rework the telecom apparatus. The possibilities seem to multiply themselves don't they?

( All in fun. Trying to take the edge off. Ouch!! I cut my self on the edge! Grrr. )

Aragorn III
(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:48 - ID#212323)
Scanning through the posts...JTF, TolerantOne, Allen(USA)...
Fine stuff all day, JTF, particularly the AM post in dialog with aurator. Allen, your 13:44 was lucid, cogent, and an excellent attitude-adjuster for anyone with the ability to read. Tolerant, someday our two-oz rings shall meet as we shake hands in greeting. Is the design a classic band, or are you giving mine a run for the money?

Most important develoment of the day for the gold is now available in liquid form, and I am bent upon cornering the local supply. I raise my glass to you all...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:51 - ID#240120)
Sequin are you still around ??

Re your 15:23. Please tell me/us. WHERE did you hear about TOKAI bank ?

Look forward to hearing from you.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:56 - ID#288369)
@Now the REAL Jimmy RoDgers....(this was hard to find)....... Poorboyz....your RECORD will never be broken............

(Fri Apr 24 1998 17:58 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
First, I am particularly thankful for info provided me ( as per my late night post ) that today, Wall Street would make a concerted effort today to undermine the negative beta ( contrarian ) movement of gold stocks so firmly established over the past week. At the same time, mutual index funds let the air out of the equities market and targeted funds for the bonds markets. Again, this re-direction of funds was utilized in order to convince populist investors that, in any market meltdown, bonds will be the safest haven, much more so than PM's ( absolute nonsense...any meltdown stemming from either weakness in the U.S. dollar or a rate increase will decimate both bonds and equities ) . As long as the bond market remains healthy and profitable, then the American economy will maintain its economic hegemony DESPITE any potential equities collapse.
However, should both American equities and bonds collapse, then the world will finally see an evolution into a multi-regional, shared economic power structure. As in any economic chaos, this structure will be built upon a foundation of precious metals.

First, Wall Street and its mainstream media cohorts brought out the tired, old scare about the Swiss intentions of selling 50% of their gold reserves ( extremely unlikely! However, the ONLY way it might ever happen is if Switzerland sells its reserves to another stronger central bank, e.g., other words, the gold will NEVER hit the street and will not have any effect on aggregate supply; its only effect would be psychological to unenlightened individuals ( thankfully, there are far fewer of those today ) who are unaware that the majority of central bank gold sales over the past two years have been incestuous, involving no third parties at all ) .

Another reason for Wall Street's concern is the increasingly frequent media reports that speculators in the gold market do not have a hope in hell of covering their CB loans unless there is a dramatic drop in the price of gold. This is no longer a theory, it is a simple fact. Moreover, there are further indications that, compounding this potential disaster for gold speculators is the real possibility that certain CB's have been lending gold reserves ( on a pure paper basis ) exceeding their actual, real reserves. Look for some excitement on that front in the next weeks news.

BOTTOM LINE: There is no gold surplus in the world but rather a real and genuine physical gold shortage!! We are soon about to witness a Price of Gold explosion that will be no less meteoric than Palladium's recent performance. I urge all Kitcoites to control their emotions during this impending explosion as a steady, calm demeanor will allow you to see
the forest for the trees.

Today's other notable fundamental event concerned the appointment of the new Russian Prime Minister. Although spun by U.S. government sources as a great positive ( causing a good part of the gold weakness today ) , it is actually a notable negative for the U.S. You see, Mr. C. is quite a contrast to Yeltsin. Whereas Yeltsin is quite malleable and has been a good, drunken U.S. puppet to date, Mr. C. is young, determined lion and has definite ideas about where Russia ought to be going in the future. Unfortunately, his firm idealism is not entirely consonant with America's aspirations to turn him into another American puppet. Mr. C. will most likely consolidate the Russian commodity monopolies and utitize them much more effectively than Yeltsin has ever done to date. This fact augurs extremely well for gold as Russia's policies toward that metal have been on the laissez-faire side in comparison to its policies vis a vis platinum and palladium.

In the face of all these ostensibly "negative" fundamental developments, gold's performance today remained encouraging...a mere $1.50 drop in the spot on relatively light volumes and the XAU drop of approx. 3.3 ( though fairly hefty in percentage terms ) occurred on notably mild volumes as well. Again, there was no mad rush to dump gold today and some of the juniors had virtually little to no volume at all. THIS MUTED REACTION REPRESENTS A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE GOLD MARKET. IT IS FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A FAST DEVELOPING GOLD BULL.

Contrast the gold market to the broad equities markets and we are seeing the continuation of what mainstream media sources describe as a "correction" but which is actually the first stage of a huge industrial equities BEAR.

Many Wall Street Bulls are taking heart from the flat performances of such DOW bellwethers as COMPAQ, IBM, etc. in the face of a substantive turn-down. They are citing such examples as indications that a mere correction is in the works. However, again, in the same way that Wall Street endeavored to de-index gold stocks today, one must also realize their continuous attempts to index key DOW and NASDAQ darlings. The central question that must be answered as to whether they will be successful or not is this: how much longer are the abnormally high cash inflows into the market sustainable now that we are entering the fifth month of the year? Furthermore, if Japan is about to get back on its feet, do most pragmatists genuinely think they will continue huge funds inflows into American equities and bond markets after the shoddy treatment they received at America's hands most recently? Finally, when a company like COMPAQ announces a 100 million share buyback late yesterday and the net result is an essentially flat performance on the part of the stock, then such a result does not augur well at all for general industrial equities future strength. I do believe that the stocks that will get hurt the most in any impending general equities will be the excessively over-valued index darlings.

The Kitco Barometer is also encouraging. In the past, in the face of many analogous fundamental developments as we witnessed today, Kitcoites
have turned bearish, cynical, and very frightened on the spin of a dime. Not today. For the most part, they remain firm in their pro-gold convictions, yet not in any sense euphoric or ebullient ( and that would be a bad sign ) . In fact, they are so effectively indifferent to the news today, that once again, a variety of gold shorts have jumped back onto the forum in an attempt to scare them up again with the same old anti-gold agit-prop.

The Precious Metals Relativity Index indicates that gold is still way out of relativistic whack to the white metals. I strongly sense that Russia's new Prime Minister C. will note this reality and take strong measures to exploit the upside potential of one of Russia's greatest assets, namely its tremendous gold reserves.

On the basis of some fundamental news I think will break early next week, I am upgrading my EXTREME BULLISH view on gold to the category of LOOK OUT ABOVE! Again, I believe silver shall join in on the victory dance.



(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:02 - ID#329157)
Dow week weak
Dow down 102 on week, first weekly fall after three weeks of rises.
Concerns over possible Fed rate rise, falling inflows to stock funds,
Japan's lacklustre economic package, and earnings, cited by BBC Teletext service.
You loan 8000 tonnes an' whaddya get?
ANOTHER day older an' deeper in debt
Saint Peter doncha call me 'cause I can't go
I owe my soul to the company sto'

apologies to Merle Travis

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:06 - ID#288369)
@CJS......Merle Travis and.......
Tennessee Ernie Ford.......BBML

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:13 - ID#33180)
Golden Prophet
Sell stocks, or sell gold???

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:15 - ID#307271)
@(James, Shlomo, Donald, Jonesy)
Let me seee...Hmmmmm...James and Jimmy. Hey James, you sure do know a lot about Little Jimmy Rodgers. Maybe a new moniker like say "L'il Jim"?
I saw and heard what Little Jimmy Rodgers said. Likeable little irishman, but he sure fell on his dirk when he said, "Gold has become just another commodity to be bought and sold in the market place." Sure hope you have lots to sell Little Jimmy.
That XAU/Spot ratio of 0.30 sure seems to be on the mark. Just yesterday, I asked you which had to happen, an increase in the Spot or a decrease in the XAU. I guess we know now.
Sure thought that Volume chart looked like newly mowed grass--like mine will hopefully look tomorrow e'en. Looked like a good old engineering hack by one decimal place.
Later Guys...

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:32 - ID#347447)
A little RESPECT
I am sure Jim Rogers would be amazed to see how his fortune has gone from "hundreds of millions" to "billions" on Kitco. Much better than he ever did in the markets, I'd say, unless we're talking about what he did for other people's money. For Brother StudioR, let me make it clear my friend, I was not "jumping on" Jim. I was merely tweaking him for his "rubber" play. It DOES sound funny, right? I think we should give the man a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T ( Just a little bit ) . Politically he is a cross section of kitco's freemarket, anti-inflation, anti-government control bias ( I just don't think he owns an AK47 ) . He gets a B+ from me there, maybe an A-. He's paid his dues, making more money in the markets than the whole capitalization of all the kitco forums ( except maybe for LGB ) , and I'll throw in the one Vronsky carries in Chinese. As an investor, you gotta give him an A. As for his personality on CNBC, it's a pleasure to see a real person in somebody's face ( nowadays there are a few wannabe's trying it, acting all punky and "street" smart - but it's clear that this is bullsh*t. Jim was the first! ) For going against the CNBC Whitebread tide, I give him an A. He's as annoying as Jim Carey when he's acting annoying. That's talent! Brother Shlomo pointed out that Jim said "Gold is not considered money anymore". Would that many goldbugs had taken that to heart long ago, they would have preserved some of their substance. Gold is NOT considered money anymore, at least by the run of the mill investment community. And we are JUST finding out from Brother Another just WHICH community DOES use gold as "money" - if we believe him.

All in all, we should ALL live in Mr. Rogers' neighborhood. And the guy is a decent, jovial, real person, for all his legendary attention. Jump on Jim Rogers? Me? No Way. What did Llloyd Bentson say to Dan Quayle about John Kennedy? Been there, done that. Jim's OK. Take it from the ol' astrologer.

As for "rubber and shrimp futures," I can send that poster to a restaurant or two where the fare combines the two qualities quite well. If I want rubber to eat, I'll stick with fried calamari ( don't get me started ) .

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:39 - ID#347447)
It is my understanding that the US money supply shrank by a third during the Great Depression ( What could have been so "great" about it? ) Your point about the secretion of cash in various private locations is intriguing. Milton Friedman is my mentor on this subject, so I will repair to "A Monetary History of the United States" to re-read the sections wherein he bemoans the failure of the Fed to compensate for the money supply shrinkage. Now, friend Prometheus, if little Mikey here, in his gargantuan obscurity, is aware of this, shouldn't A. Greenspan be as well? Will he allow the same mistake whence cometh again the deluge? ( apologies to LGB ) .

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:39 - ID#240120)
Dear all, Have any of you heard anything about TOKAI Bank today ??

SEQUIN mentioned some rumour in his 15:23.

Thank you

Mr. Mick
(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:39 - ID#345321)
All: Don't forget - "CNBC is a service of the Dow Jones Inc."
What do you expect to hear from those eggheads? The truth?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:51 - ID#26793)
Tokai Bank news (more to follow)

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:54 - ID#26793)
@Jeremy: This is all I can find.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:56 - ID#22584)
Chas- your 15.51 Major Jordan's Diaries
Try this URL Fascinating reading.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:57 - ID#176200)
@clone...We need a bigger boat!
Just a big ditto on your earlier post aka "stocking up"!! Yepper!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 18:58 - ID#240120)
@ Donald_A
Thank you very much !

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:04 - ID#267344)
Your responses are generally very encouraging. If I am meant to take your boat prospects literally perhaps we will cross paths some day soon in the South Pacific!
- c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:12 - ID#257148)
Where Three Roads Meet
Kwik Kwiz from a Kiwi:--

1 What was highest denomination note ever issued by the U.S. Federal
Reserve System?

2 How much did it weigh?

3 Why is the US$ referred to as a buck?

4 What was the highest denomination note ever issued by a CB?


Just in case you thought I'd run out of economist quips:

Q: How many economists does it take to change a light bulb?

A: Hell, you need a whole department of them just to prepare the research grant.

They say that Christopher Columbus was the first economist. When he left to discover America, he didn't know where he was going. When he got there he didn't know where he was. And it was all done on a government grant.


How many economists does it take to screw in a light bulb?

1. Just one, but it really gets screwed.
2. One to prepare the proposal, an econometrician to run the model, one each MS and PhD students to write the theses and dissertations, two more to prepare the journal article ( senior authorship not assigned ) , four to review it, and at least as many to refine the model and replicate the results.


Stephen M. Goldfeld, in _The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking_. November, 1984, p. 611: "An economist is someone who sees something working in practice and asks whether it would work in principle."

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:13 - ID#267344)
What financial institutions on this planet continue to practice a tradition of privacy, honor, and discretion. Or am I being extremely naive? - c

The Hermit
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:17 - ID#372248)
@ farfel - your 17:58
I do appreciate "F*'s Evaluations" current and past. Please continue.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:21 - ID#288369)
@Mike Sheller...I respect your respect for Jimmy......but.......
I don't care for him or his trading successes one damn bit. I know a number of men who have made fortunes vastly greater than he whom I greatly respect for building deal is simple....You're either for me ( gold ) or you're against me....rather basal, wouldn't you say? Keep talking Jimmy....I want to get real close to my enemy. Calamari....yikes! yo tambien.

Party to Cuba Libre!-Time at the Arts Festival....Have a great evening, my friend.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:27 - ID#251268)
check out profarmer's report today ( got it e-mail ) says China may be intentionaly uder reporting planted acreage by 50% and may not need to import grains but might be exporting~~~~h'mmm don't get off that south bound train yet,todays rally short covering?no problems with planting or harvesting~~~~~~~~~go Gold !!!

Monkee Person
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:28 - ID#288105)
More on the New Paradigm
To reduce the subject variables, exaggerate the circumstances, then re-introduce the variables individually is a study technique that more than just the Monkee Person have made good use of while affording a genuine attempt at good understanding of unfamiliar disciplines, new and complex topics, and alternative ideas. It also seems to permit good objectivity and an uncomplicated path to an honest conclusion.

There was once posted on this site a hugely hilarious yet effective treatment of currency exchange and commerce which used this method. I have a hardcopy somewhere and apologise for not being able to give credit to the author presently.

Having given consideration only yesterday to the extent both current and future global growth might assist in absorbing what's currently decribed as excess liquidity, I applied the "reduction technique" -- along with the necessary economic variables and gloabl trade doctrine -- to the American New Paradigm. The conclusion offered a rather startling image.

The image was that of a U.S. similar to nations ( or kingdoms ) that have appeared and reappeared throughout history. It was a view of centralised control over a shrunken commercial landscape where realtively few and extremely influential enterprises ordered the marketplace. It is a nation where the workforce is guaranteed sufficient and comfortable provision and many times offered grand indulgence. It is much the same in other regions of a world in economic equilibrium. Yet for all the indulgences it is never-the-less a nation of haves and have nots. People with and without wealth.

The entire national condition evolved from a renaissance of sorts. Though the renaissance was more of an outchop or disembarking of principles with none of the attendant vigor or national awakening -- elements with which one might normally associate a large-scale renewal. There are achievement boundaries which delimit the social organisation. The organised social territories are large. Few aspire and even fewer advance beyond the boundaries. Much sacrifice and commitment is required of those that those who have not.

With a few twists, it is empire.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:28 - ID#251268)

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:34 - ID#210235)
@Mike Sheller
Right, they didn't print fast enough to compensate for the big vacuum
from people pulling their cash out of banks. The money was there, only
the economic activity wasn't. ( 1930-32 )

AG did mention that he was printing extra money in anticipation of a problem at the big Y2K meeting in Washington, DC sometime last month. I read about it here on Kitco.

The data re the bank withdrawals is from THE PERILS OF PROSPERITY, 1914-32, by Leuchtenburg, U. of Chicago press, 1958. An excellent read.

If we make the psychological shift to deflationary thinking, we'll be buying the minimum we need now, anticipating a better deal later. This would lead to a slowdown in all economic activity. It's no wonder, whatever they believe, that business and government leaders keep singing the inflation song! Those Federal reserve Inflation Hawks crying "beware inflation" were really laughable eariler this week.

You remember that Hoover firmly believed that remaining optimistic was critically important towards keeping people from panicking. Later, when things got really dismal, he actually did not believe his own advisors when they told him how bad things were! This is an important point, and one that is often overlooked. Things were just unbelievable, so responses were utterly inadequate.

Depressing subject. But it is, unfortunately, timely.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:36 - ID#209265)
Mike - money supply shrinkage
Very few people recall the money supply shrinkage when discussing the Depression. The ones who do usually attribute it to negligence on the part of governments around the world. Books on the Depression in the US usually claim that the Hoover administration made a "mistake" in not countering the decrease in the money supply, as though reflating is something that any government ought to be able to do on demand.

I've even seen claims made by various gurus lately that a deflationary collapse need not happen even if there is another stock market crash "because the government controls the money supply" and simply supplies enough liquidity to counterbalance any deflationary pressure.

Silly boys- they don't realize that reflation is only possible when there is public confidence in the financial system- and this was true in the '30s even when the US$ was on the gold standard.

Hoover wasn't the ignoramus people make him out to be- he and his aides realized the desperate importance of reflating. They used heroic measures- interest rates were taken down to almost zero. Hoover initiated all sorts of huge public works and make-work projects. Here's the key: Hoover did all these things and *nothing worked!* The money supply kept going down. Things that would have triggered massive inflation in high confidence times had no effect.

Congress did its part. They tried to keep out foreign goods flooding into the 'States at deflated prices by passing the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act, which succeeded in killing thousands of jobs in import businesses, further reducing business confidence.

Roosevelt ran against Hoover calling him the "do-nothing president" and that may be where a lot of the Hoover stigma came from. When Roosevelt got into office he attacked the reflation problem with totalitarian fury. FDR's infamous gold confiscation was part of a program of competitive currency devaluation. Roosevelt wasn't able to reflate either.

Let's go to more recent times. After the bubble in Japan burst the Japanese administration lowered interest rates to almost zero. They initiated huge public spending programs. It was Herbert Hoover all over again! Nothing happened. Their deflationary spiral continued until real estate was worth 10% of what it had been and the stock market had lost about 2/3 of its value.

What our blithe market gurus don't understand is that the money supply can sometimes escape from the control of governments. Just like an airplane in a death spiral, where the forces on the control surfaces are stronger than the arms of the pilot, every now and again, a government mismanages its affairs to the extent that market forces take over that are impossible to counteract.

Ominously- China has recently announced that it will institute huge public works projects and cut interest rates to try to keep growth at 8% p.a.- so that it can fend off pressures on its currency. When those pressures finally break through, either the currency will have to fall or the economy will fall. It'll be spectacular when it happens.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:43 - ID#342315)
Gianni of the gold (Dioro)
Thanx for your response. I will be back in touch, Charlie

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:45 - ID#209265)
OK Aurator . . .
You've got me on the edge of my seat! Why is it called a buck?


(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:48 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Thanks much for your excellent daily reviews of the gold market! Though very positve on POG ( expect $340-350 by summer and $450 next year ) , I still am not nearly as optimistic as you near-term. But I won't complain if you are right and I am wrong.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:50 - ID#347447)
Steve in TO, Prometheus
Now I am sorely depressed. I think it time for another Martini and a rest from the travails of the week. I am one drink away from becoming a deflationist, I fear. Tonite it's the Polish Vodka. Where is Brother oris and a pickle when one needs it?!
My problem is rapidly becoming one of agreement with EVERY well presented kitcoite offering. One minute INflation, the next DEflation...surely a Flation is coming and at hand. Now do you see why I must resort to astrology as the tie-breaker, the revelatory factor? In the end, when there are too many ways to view the fundamental, the technical must lend its clue. Perhaps my problem is too much an open mind. I am TOO understanding.Thank you so much for engaging my tired brain. A votre Sante! L'Chaim! Salud! Chin Chin! Cheers!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:52 - ID#29082)
A buck?
a guess: the colonial Americans used deer hides as currency. Buckskins, shortened to bucks were frontier currency. am i close?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:54 - ID#342315)
CJS re your response
Thank you very much. I'm going to have to digest this and will get back. If what I read was true, the plates would produce the real thing, not counterfeit. This is a tenous thread. I will do my best. Again, Thanx Charlie

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:56 - ID#347447)
Steve in TO
PS - Milton Friedman ascribes the money supply shrinkage in the US during the last "Big One" to the ineptitude of the organization created to head off just such a mistake - the Federal Reserve.
If WE are discussing it, what think you is thinking Alan Greenspan at this very moment?! What a corner for the former Ayn Rand accolyte to be in. What, pray tell, ( and I ask you and Prometheus, and any other erudite kitcoite who wishes to respond ) should the course of action officially be in the event of the next "Big One"???? Best answer becomes my Secretary of the Treasury or Federal Reserve Chair in my administration ( I will get elected by promising everyone that the "stars" will show me the way ) .

(Fri Apr 24 1998 19:59 - ID#176200)
@clone... Actually a landlubber
I am a better hiker than a swimmer. I plan on staying on dry land.
I just cant quite convince the wife we need to move. I guess I will
be an urban guerilla. I envy your position of casting off. From the
standpoint of stocking up we are finished and just whistling dixie
Kaos can happen at any time. I would rather watch it on tv than be a part
of it. I, like you wish no one any harm. But stay out of my backyard!!
GRRRR! Take care O.L.

Not speaking for my employer...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:00 - ID#267344)
Sheller - a solution to the "flation" dilemma...
Cash has no use. Buy gold. But you already know that, so what does it matter? Just make sure you hold at least until Y2K is resolved. - c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:03 - ID#317193)
Notice I'm getting somewhat more antagonistic with my posts? Change is coming. Patience, my son, patience. Enough, Ida ( my mom ) , it is time. Oh, OK son, have at it. Thanks mom, I needed that. See you in Heaven! Love, your son...Tom P.S. no, your not supposed to understand my talk with my dear departed mother

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:05 - ID#153102)
New Analytical Method
I took four crystal balls and atop them placed a ouji board with the caballa underneath and then centered a zodiac and thrust a mounting pin through it all to hold it together. Since Tony Packo packs no pickles to hereabouts, I used a gherkin sweet midget pickle as my spinner ( on the aforesaid centered pin ) . I spun the pickle with a flick of my random generator digit AND it pointed to Alice Rivlin's comments at the IMF meeting ( posted previously by Donald, I think ) . There was also insight revealed ( I think ) from the ouji and the zodiac by the pointing pickle, but that needs more research and fine tuning. BBML

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:09 - ID#248180)
Kaplan's Gold Summary

My current outlook has been lowered to SLIGHTLY BULLISH. The multi-year triple bottom seems to have been clearly established with the recent sharp rally, thus establishing a solid base in preparation for a potentially enormous, very long term bull market in precious metals and their shares. Short-term indicators are extremely positive at the same time that traders' commitments and related fundamentals have been gradually deteriorating, setting up an increasing likelihood of a short-term blowoff in which gold sharply rallies to $340 or $350 per ounce, then collapses to below $300 an ounce before the rally resumes once again. If one compares the behavior of the general stock market from 1982 through 1986, this provides a similar parallel example ( though gold mining usually retraces the same patterns over a much shorter total period of time ) , with the initial powerful rally from July 1982 leading to a temporarily unsustainable top and sudden correction before the next, strong bull phase was underway. Those who are still investing in gold mining shares should be more selective in their purchases, and prepare for the possibility of having to sell in short notice should gold suddenly mount a sharp rally to a temporarily unsustainable level. Keep an eye on the JOC commodity index as a trend setter.


( c ) 1996-1998 Steven Jon Kaplan Your comments are always welcome.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:11 - ID#257148)
Bucks. Silver. Earthquakes. Floods. Burghers of Edgecumbe.LGB.Morgan & Peace $ Comstock &Sovereign
close enough
The story is, back in the Old West, one dollar was the going price for a
buck ( skin ) .

I reckon an economist or twelve could do some figurin with the Price of Silver and a hide then and now and come up with an idea or two.

18 months after the Edgecumbe earthquake, the town suffered a flood. ( Luckily the large earth dam at the top of the valleys didn't collapse during the 'quake ) Having already coped with one Emergency, the townsfolk knew what to do for this second disaster. You have my thoughts for your family's well-being. Please pass over the rest of this sacriligious post.

I have been buying well-circulated Morgan and Peace dollars, with I guess no numismatic value. My friend the jeweller has been tumbling them so they shine, shine, shine.

Several are dated in the 1880's, when a buck would get you a buck, yes?
Am I correct in thinking they are likely made of silver from The Comstock Load?

Is there an easy way to tell where they were minted?

Your daughters' sovereigns may not be made from English gold at all. Look for the mint mark above the date and below the near rear hoof of St George's horse.

thanks to Nick@C for the most wonderful birthday gift a goldbug could receive, "The Standard Catalog of World Gold Coins." This fella will never buy a soverini again!!!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:22 - ID#267344)
Didn't anyone inform you that marriage was not a good investment!?! ( funny joke ) I prefer the land as well, but I remain homeless until I find the place where gold is a fundamental asset of freedom and democracy. Funny that Sheller mentions Ayn Rand. I was just thinking about what would happen to the world if Atlas shrugged. Where is that location that the pillars of society would take shelter? If that place exists, I will find it. If it does not, I assure you that it will.
- c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:24 - ID#210235)
@Mike, Steve in TO
Steve in TO, CHINA too? Oh heck. That was news to this poor reader.

Mike, Secretary of the Treasury? Will have to contemplate this one after taking my darlin' daughter to pizza-bingo night at the school. ( Don't laugh!! You know darn well how hard it is to sit there and pretend to have a good time. ) Hopefully by then, you'll have appointed Donald already.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:25 - ID#153102)
Going away I saw your Buck post. I think you want to research that some more. As you know there is a sign on the President's desk since H Truman which says "The Buck Stops Here". The Buck was a horn handled knife, I think, which it was the custom in the West to stick in the table at the seat of the man with the deal at poker. "Passing the Buck" meant that you didn't elect to deal ( which could be hazardous to your health ) . The American paper currency was called the Buck after THE NEW DEAL. As you know FDR dealt out a new greenback and since it was his deal, people called it the Buck as short for the dollar on this deal of the Buck. Truman put the sign in his office as a statement that no deals would be elsewhere while he was there. The President has the Buck, still, so he is still dealing. American is a more interesting language than most people realize.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:30 - ID#209265)
MIke & Prometheus - another thought
BTW- please don't think that I'm forecasting a deflation. Massive, unsustainable debts always end up being liquidated, and if governments allow pressures to build up too high the subsequent release can spiral out of their control as either uncontrollable deflation or hyperinflation. Governments can sometimes trigger inflationary forces that get out of their control. Think of Wiemar Germany, or Brazil.

Of course Milton F., a monetarist, would think that the Fed mismanaged the Depression. Economists have a very difficult time imagining a world in which their theories don't work.

It doesn't matter to them that during the 30's the Fed threw open the discount window- and that banks still refused to lend the almost free money the Fed was making available to them, and that few people were able to borrow it. In a deflation real interest rates on borrowed money are high even at 0% nominal interest.

The economists counter by saying that the Fed didn't inflate "soon enough," as though that would somehow have had an effect, say, in 1929, when people were losing their life's savings in the crash, or in 1930-31 when they were losing their life's savings in bank runs. The pundits were unable to foresee the 1929 crash, but suppose they had been able to? Suppose you were to invent a time machine and send them all urgent telegraph messages that the market would crash on October of that year? Would Friedman have had them inflate before the Great Crash? That would have caused hyperinflation.

What buffoons. They put theory ahead of observation. I like Solomon's advice much better: "The wise man forsees the trouble ahead and steps out of harm's way while the fool blunders on into punishment."

Which will it be: deflation or inflation? I don't know yet. It will impossible to predict until we are on the edge of a precipice and some government, possibly the US administration, makes a critical decision, such as whether to default or to try to inflate their way out of the mess of the day. There's no question in my mind that Clinton would try to inflate his way out, but he may not be the boss when the crunch comes.

- Steve

BTW Mike, thanks for the e-mail. I forgot to do a reply, so I'm sticking this note in now, 'cause I know I'll forget again when I'm at home.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:30 - ID#347267)
Gold Mutual Funds
To All: Late posting this by a day--Phone lines cut by state road dept.

Just completed a quick review of large group of Gold mutual funds in my data base. ALL are now above the 23 and 50 day moving averages. ALL 23 day MA's have crossed the 50 day MA. ALL have penetrated the 200 day MA except Invesco ( FGLDX ) and Bull&Bear ( BBGIX ) , which are in a strong uptrend and no doubt will very soon.

I track the 23 day,50 day and 200 day Moving Average for all: IMO one more confirmation of a NEW GOLD BULL is penetration of the 200 day MA by the 23 and 50 day MA's. None have yet except OPGSX and USAGX ( 23 day only ) , but ALL are in strong uptrends and should very soon.

The other thought I have is that we may now see a pull back to the 200 day avg before the blast off. IMO these trends speak LOUDLY for all of ( our ) individual gold stocks.

I am summarizing this review below.

Regards; Mtn Bear


Invesco..FGLDX ( Almost )

Bull&Bear..BBGIX ( Almost )





Amer Cent..BGEIX





LexingtnStrategic.. STIVX






United Svc World..UNWPX


VanEck Gold/Rsc..GRFRX

ps To Snowball: Re post question of about 2 days ago: Most if not all of the above are no-load funds; many are "no transaction fee" funds with Schwab, Jack White, Waterhouse, or Fidelity. My suggestion is go with the fund "family" you are now with, or open an account with any of the above or with one of the above brokerages.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:32 - ID#257148)
I am sure you're right about the buck. Is likely more than one possible etymology.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:40 - ID#57232)
latest Japan recovery plan - in case you have not seen it.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:45 - ID#57232)
Hanta Virus and El Nino
It's a good bet that there is much environmental distortion from El Nino. We have more than just the markets and gold to watch out for.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:47 - ID#209265)
Prometheus - China
Hope you see this when you get back. If you want to read about China's anticipatory reflation moves ( now there's an oxymoron- sort like the things Friedman thinks the Fed should have done in 1929 : ) go to:

and look up the article "Why do the Chinese Remain Committed to High Growth and No Devaluation?"

- Steve

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:51 - ID#153102)
It is hard for me to imagine the usage of Buck for a greenback derives from skins. Buckskin was the termed coined by Americans for the clothing worn by certain tribes of Indians. The word "Buck" then also came to mean an Indian brave. Buck is also the male deer. The horn of deer were fashioned into knife handles. Hence the Buck knife. There is still a knife company here which goes by the name Buck, having made the generic proprietary.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:52 - ID#57232)
Does this look like Mexico is stable?
Markedly increased crime in Mexico -- probably fallout from devaluation in 1994. Does this look like the stable South American investment opportunity we are told about? I'm not so sure. And -- what was the outcome of that secret meeting between Mexico and Argentina concering oil? If there was a solid agreement by OPEC to cut more world oil production, why are the oil stocks not rising more?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:54 - ID#29082)
Mozel & Aurator
I believe both etymologies of "buck" are correct. My Random House Webster's Collegiate Dictionary supports the buckskin reference and this site ( Wordsmyth English Dictionary-Thesaurus ) supports the knife reference. Wordsmyth is verrrrrry slow. Search on buck. It's a cool source.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:55 - ID#57232)
Buckskins -- signing off!
mozel, aurator: I think speed is right that the term buck came from buckskins. I believe that buckskins were used in barter as a form of currency in US colonial days. Makes sense if you were a trapper/hunter.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:58 - ID#26793)
Are we still guessing about bucks? The answer is so easy I thought everyone knew. Old banknotes had a single Roman numeral X or XX on them, for 10 or 20 dollars. They looked like Sawhorses, or sawbucks as they were known in those days. Called a "sawbuck" for a 10 or a "double sawbuck" for a 20.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 20:59 - ID#286230)
Steve in TO:
"A few incredibly stupid governments, including the current Canadian one, have sold their gold, and used the proceeds to buy themselves some political capital ( Canada's much-trumpeted "balanced budget" was achieved at the cost of our national assets. ) "

I don't support the current govbernment--BUT --What are you talking about.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:02 - ID#257148)
It's only words, and words are all I have
I think the word "buck" appeared in print before the new deal, yes?

And a couple of Poems for the elevation of the spirit, no?


They may talk of the plugging and sweating
Of our coinage thats minted of gold;
But to me it produces no fretting
Of its shortness of weight to be told:
All the sovreigns Im able to levy
As to lightness can never be wrong,
But must surely be some of the heavy,
*For I never can carry them long.*

Thomas Hood 1861



How many hands, vicissitudes,
Have worn this gold to the thin ghost
That gleams in the shopkeepers palm?
A millenium flickers, eludes
Us, is gone, as we bend engrossed
In blurred words and a surface charm

Dick Davies, In the Distance. 1975

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:05 - ID#26793)
Newmont Gold, Treminco news.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:10 - ID#57232)
Sawbucks -- indeed! Sounds plausible
Donald: Hope all is well! Anything about Japan or South Korea? That ominous post about S Korea heading for the brink again has me sitting up in my chair. See you later -- will log in tomorrow after chores for the 'real' boss. The 14 year old house two-unit air conditioner is ready for replacement - expensive! Unfortunately can't buy any one of those freon-free devices yet -- am reluctant to buy a Freon one when I can't touch it if it needs minor repair. Oh well -- I guess the AC lobby has me coming and going.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:16 - ID#26793)
The first "Sawbuck" was issued in 1861, portrait of Lincoln ( unusual in that he was still alive ) . The first "double sawbuck" was 1869, portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:18 - ID#373403)
My letter to Alan Greenspan
Dear Chairman Greenspan:

I would like to ask you to consider monetizing the debt in an effort to
ensure generational fairness. If your generation was unwilling to pay
for all the government as you consumed it, what makes you think my
generation is willing to pay for the government we will consume much
less your old debt?

The Cold War Investment theory sounds good but is intellectually
dishonest. To say that the creation of a $5 Trillion debt was
worthwhile because it brought down communism, also says that my
generation is doomed to suffer at the hands of some future dictator or
repressive political system. We will not be able to outspend them
because we will be too strapped paying for the end to some bygone

The politicians will never pay down the debt so it is up to you to do
the right thing and monetize the debt with the consequence of
redistributing wealth from the lender to the borrower. You could grow
old with a good conscience knowing you did not doom your grandchildren
to misery.

Steven Pollack

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:21 - ID#26793)
@JTF: Korea says we just don't understand how the do business there.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:22 - ID#266105)

from American Heritage dictionary [1969]

buck5 n. Slang. A dollar. [Short for buckskin
( a unit of trade with the American Indians ) .]

buck6 n. Slang. A counter or marker formerly placed
before a poker player to mark him as the next
dealer. --pass the buck. To shift responsibility
or blame to someone else. [short for earlier
buckhorn knife, from its use for this purpose.]

sawbuck n. 2. Slang. A ten-dollar bill. [referring
to the Roman numeral X.]

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:22 - ID#267344)
Steve, your 2030 - that was a really informative post, thx!
I think I am really starting to understand the game. Things were so simple ( I was not there ) in the "golden years" of money. Now, under the new rules of the currency game, run away debt eventually muddles the value of things. A responsible economy might say "gee, I need to save $15,000 to buy that '36 sailboat next year." A debt dependent economy will say, "gosh, if I borrow $30,000 I can have that boat today!" When debt becomes the norm, money is not respected; it becomes more dispensible, less valuable. Once the time comes to repay that debt, when saving becomes the norm, that boat becomes worth only $15,000 again. And people wonder what the hell happenned! Hence, I will assert that inflation/deflation is directly related to debt levels ( recognizing there are other factors involved as well - money supply, reserve requirements, confidence, POG ) . I have always believed that the only way the USG can repay its existing PUBLIC debt is through inflation - so I see that coming in the future. Short term, however, I think PRIVATE debt levels will result in foreclosures and sweet deals on sailboats ( deflation ) . ESPECIALLY with the looming bank crisis of Y2k. Cash WILL be relatively valuable for the next two years, but after that expect a MAJOR correction so the USG can break even. Unless I am convinced otherwise, I am planning my investments on these premises. All others do so at your own risk, with my blessing ( understanding that I was not the first to make such bold predictions ) !

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:24 - ID#153102)
I'm going with Donald on this one. I just knew it had nothing to do with skins and the Buck had the Deal.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:25 - ID#26793)
Russian vote expected to speed platinum shipments.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:25 - ID#316193)
George Ure's Weekly Prediction: 95% Certain the DOW 's Peak is "In"

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:33 - ID#26793)
Korea about to plunge into second economic crisis.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:34 - ID#153102)
@aurator &@BOR02B
"unit of trade with the American Indian" No doubt it was, but where is the connection to a silver dollar ? Trading with the Indians was long gone before paper money predominated. I lean to buck as one tenth of a sawbuck. The sawbuck was a Note, the greenback after the New Deal was also a Note, hence a Buck.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:38 - ID#26793)
I am old enough to remember the term used even as a teenager. It was one of those things that "everyone knew". When I signed back on I was surprised to see it still in doubt! Just shows my age I guess.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:38 - ID#267344)
themissinglink - Yours was a very reasonable appeal...
I only hope that it is heard. Would you please explain what is involved/required in "monetizing the debt." Also, I would appreciate any comments that you might have concerning my previous post's assumption that the USG will eventually solve the $5,000,000,000,000 debt with a huge correctional inflaationary period.
- c
P.S. please read '36 as 36' in previous post. Also I forgot to add that cool "- c" at the end.
- c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:44 - ID#153102)
@clone @Gold
You can never pay debt with debt. No matter how hard you try. Think about it. If all your currency were from your credit card, could you ever pay it off ?

@Gold Somebody posted again that money ( gold ) won't work because the increase is only 2% a year. Why is it so impossible for people to reason this through. Money stable ( unchanging ) ; Production increases; prices go down; money goes farther; don't have to work so hard to eat and clothe yourself; more time for leisure pursuits; life gets better. Money ( gold ) goes further, so littler pieces are need to buy what big pieces cost before. Pretty much the way it was from 1776 to 1860 in America. Proof by reason; proof by experience. Now make debt/credit your "money" and where do you go ? In reverse. Take a look around.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:45 - ID#26793)
Looking at "Paper Money of the United States", Robert Friedberg, we have the XX note still being issued as late as 1908 along with a "C-Note" ( 100 ) and an L-Note ( 50 ) . These notes used the Roman Numerals C and L in the design. I remember the term "C-Note" being used but not an "L-Note".

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:47 - ID#153102)
I remembered knowing about sawbuck when I saw your post. Just shows my age, I guess.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:52 - ID#153102)
@Donald C-Note is current lingo with me.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:55 - ID#267344)
mozel - you speaak the truth, but I'm not sure what I said to provoke your response.
While we are on the subject though, the point you disagreed with seems to be the fundamental purpose of the IMF. Perhaps someone should inform that bastard organization what they are doing WRONG!! - with my Tax $$, too. A special note for Congress: THERE ARE BETTER WAYS TO USE OUR TAXES!
- c

(Fri Apr 24 1998 21:59 - ID#255284)
Yes, I've heard that too, about the sawbucks. Agreed, it sounds most likely. ( altho I remember somewhere a story about Lincoln's wooden teeth being somehow involved? ) I've e-mailed the source of that question with your ( anonymous ) suggestions.

I guess noone cares about the other trivia questions, oh well...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:05 - ID#153102)
@clone @Offer
I don't know either. Maybe it was missinglink. I need a bigger screen or something.

Anyway, gotta go. But first, if you, the forum members from America, do not yet understand that until No State ... makes nothing but Gold and Silver Coin a tender in payment of debt again that we are not under the Constitution and the government is pretending to be under the Constitution, think it through. The government in DC is bankrupt. It cannot be bankrupt and authorized by the Constitution at the same time. Why are our leaders bankrupt ? Who else would be fit to inhabit a bankrupt government ?

If anyone can tell me in the next fifteen minutes what entitlement program is participated in by more American taxpayers than any other, I will send the first who gives the correct answer a SAWBUCK.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:09 - ID#426220)
and a FIN?

Remember how much a "fin" is?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:09 - ID#210253)

We love you man!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:13 - ID#31868)
Will Durant spoke of the many mansions in his Fathers home. Your ring has many facets, truly, forged in the light of Day created with a God watching.Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, such a ring is that which Ma Bell would desire to handle, but not like a knob, some things deserve to be turned with caution and respect

You done good kid!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:14 - ID#342273)
@ Mozel
Most participation in an entitlement - farm subsidies?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:15 - ID#26669)
Food stanps?
Or VA?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:16 - ID#153102)
I'm thinking a fin is a 5.
Wonder where that came from ?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:20 - ID#31868)
mozel - an open invitation -
If you ever get to Long Island, and happen through Huntington, you just tell anyone you meet, Khanamirian, the one with the Clown nose, is dying to buy you some suds...

Go to Dezyns on Wall Street, from there I shall become the flash in the pan and we shall eat, drink and teach course how to be dissed.


(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:23 - ID#31868)
a fin is attached to one of the greatest who ever
SHARED with all of us at KITCO...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:24 - ID#153102)
Ok. Thanks. Then you can tell me what namaste means.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:25 - ID#307271)
@Mtn Bear (SE)
Interesting post on the moving averages. I chart FSAGX just as a confirming indicator, but I chart over 50 individual PM stocks. Very interesting to me is the fact that only 2 have shown complete triune convergence. Fortunately for me these are two of my largest holdings, namely BMG and HL. BMG converged a few days ago and HL did so in late March. I use 200-day, 100-day, and 40-day moving averages.

Thanks for the info. Go Gold!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:27 - ID#31868)
That privilege awaits the two of us!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:33 - ID#373403)
By monetizing the debt I mean paying it off with newly created money. This is the same huge correctional inflationary period you speak of. The government would simply create bookkeeping deposits in the bondholders account. $5.5 trillion in debt would become $5.5 trillion in new money. Severe inflation would occur due to the revaluation of real assets and devaluation of the dollar.

Instead of a future burden, it would become a current burden to holders of paper.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:36 - ID#153102)
@T1 @Times Up
@T1 LungIland is a nice place. Hope someday to pass there again.

@Times Up Good guesses all. We always think somebody else is getting something for nothing, but they ( who run the scam of the bankrupt Pretense of Foggy Bottom ) who human nature well. They know everybody wants something for nothing. Since it's not too far hence from tax bill time of April 15, this little hint should be enough for you to find the answer: "Under penalties of perjury, I certify that I am ENTITLED.....". Remember signing that ? Did you think you were a little Prince or something that you should be EXEMPT ?

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:39 - ID#413109)
Well Done Farfel
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 17:58
farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market... ) ID#340302:
This one was so well written that I took the time to forward it to
friends and family that are not into Kitco. It goes along the lines
of my thinking, but I would never be able to express myself so eloquently
so as Mike Sheller uses a school rating system to evaluate J. Rogers
performance, which I cannot see, I would rate this with an "A"!!

Mike S. and others re the question of monetizing the debt.---
After a long period of no inflation with a humongous debt, world-wide
where would the next period in time lead us? Of course monetizing!!!
We have all spoken about the increases in money supplies, and the hidden
increases in inflation which most feel, the question is not if but how
and when, and it really doesn't matter, because noone wants to be the fall guy in the history books for the upcoming debacle. But if we were
honest with ourselves, it isn't just the people around us that are to
blame, like the A.G's or Rubins of the world, but the past generations
as well. We have created a wonderful system called credit, and abused
it and abused it and abused it, so the "Piper" is a knocking and nobody
wants to answer.
Natural forces have a funny way of putting things back into balance,
whether they be overpopulation, overspending, polluting, atomic waste
disposal problems, "PEACE" processes ( Ha ) - or any other of our species
many abuses including the elimination of other species. The sad part is
that the young must pay the heavy price of our and our parent's errors.
Ain't it always the way?
Have a nice weekend.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:41 - ID#255284)
it's those word thingies again
Tol, I thought you knew! I am pretty sure it means hello, or slightly higher, I greet your soul. I said it & heard it so often while in India in my misspent, and not for years, that I am delighted to hear it again so frequently


There are many hindu words in English, but is too far off topic, besides, perhaps the "juggernaut" of the Dow ( Dhow? )

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:42 - ID#153102)
For the last time, you cannot pay debt with debt. Newly created "money" as you call it is newly created debt. All of the "money" in the US is borrowed. What you are proposing is what they do now. You are just proposing more of it. And a bigger debt.
Really gone now.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:43 - ID#240316)
Good Press for Gold

Funds Finally Reward Patience


Dow Jones Newswires

SmartMoney Interactive

NEW YORK ( Dow Jones ) --After so many years of dismal

investment returns, you have to wonder why anyone but a

masochist would invest in gold or gold mutual funds. But this

week the patience of gold bugs everywhere was finally


Gold funds finally topped the performance charts with a

hefty 7% return for the week, more than double that of any

other group. Year-to-date returns have been none too shabby

either at 22%, outdistancing even those fiery tech funds by

1.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, the price of gold bullion

continues to rise - from a low of $281 an ounce in January to

$315 an ounce today.

Why gold? Why now? Three little letters: EMU. Investors

anticipated that the European Monetary Union would be very

damaging to the gold market because rumors had circulated

that the central banks of Europe would unload most, if not

all, of their reserves, creating a glut in the market and driving

prices down. Now that the Italian central bank announced

that it e to hold reserves and the mood looks favorable for

two other key players, France and Germany, gold has come

back with a vengeance.

But EMU is only half the answer. On Tuesday Federal

Reserve Governor Roger Ferguson said that the U.S.

economy was on an unsustainable growth path and headed

for potentially serious inflation. "Either Asia will slow the

economy to something that is more sustainable or there will

have to be some Fed action that will do that," he said.

Since gold is the traditional hedge against inflation, investors

responded accordingly. "The fact that the Fed was

concerned about inflation spooked the stock market and

people bought gold as a safe haven," says James Turk,

strategic adviser for the Midas Fund, which was No. 4 of our

top five performing funds this week.

Some of Turk's top stocks are from Australia, where he says

deep discounts can be found. Two of his favorites, Plutonic

Resources Ltd. and Delta Gold, can only be purchased on

Australian exchanges. Both, however, he says are primary

candidates for takeover by American mining giant Homestake

Mining Co. ( HM ) , whose price has risen in the past three

weeks from 11 to 12 3/8. Turk is particularly bullish on

Homestake because he says its gold stores are not "hedged,"

meaning they are fixed at a certain level - a common practice

in the mining industry. In a rising market for gold, nonhedged

companies stand to make the greatest gains. ( Unfortunately,

the same also works in the reverse for a falling market. )

Another nonhedged favorite - Newmont Gold Co. ( NGC ) -

has risen since Monday from 31 7/8 to 35 1/8 today. "People

are chasing after these companies," says Turk.

Will the gold fever last? Turk thinks so: "The growth rate of

the nation's money supply hasn't been this high since the

1980s. That's a sure sign to him that inflation is in the

pipeline. And when inflation rises, so does gold." When

asked about Asia's woes and the OPEC squabble keeping a

lid on prices through cheaper imports, Turk says these are

temporary phenomena. Overvaluations in the stock market,

he says, will also steer more investors in gold's direction.

Other gold managers are not quite so bullish as Turk. "We've

heard talk of an overvalued stock market for a long time,"

says manager Bill Martin of American Century: Global Gold,

which is up a sizable 8.4% this week and 26% year-to-date.

"But gold stocks didn't respond at all last October during the

throes of a correction. We're going to have to see the whites

of inflation's eyes before we see a real rise in price - not just


American Century's Martin is a bit more conservative in his

investment style, having invested 15% of his holdings in

mining giant Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , which hedges its

prices. Hedged stocks are safer, he says. But Barrick has a

special arrangement with its bank, whereby it can sell gold

through spot-deferred contracts, offering the best of both

worlds. "Barrick can sell at the spot price if prices are rising

quickly or defer to a contractually bound rate," Martin says.

"Some of the smaller mining companies don't have the

leverage in the industry to do that." In the past week, shares

of Barrick have risen from 21 7/16 to 23 5/8.

Three of this week's biggest losers invest heavily in China,

especially in Hong Kong - Fidelity Hong Kong and China,

Eaton Vance Greater China Growth and GAM: International.

Aside from the ongoing problems in Japan and the Pacific

Rim in general, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell 1.6% this

Tuesday after the gove rnment announced that the former

British territory was suffering from the worst unemployment

in three years.

Meanwhile, European funds continue to soar. Year-to-date

Pioneer Europe and Invesco International: European are up

31% and 30% respectively. If January's monetary union goes

as planned, the returns could be even greater a few years

down the road. For more information and analysis of

companies and mutual funds, visit SmartMoney Interactive at

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:43 - ID#31868)
you are welcome far past the distance that infinity might race...Happy Trails to you and yours...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:45 - ID#240316)
More Good Press for Gold
Gold-Oriented Mutual Funds Glisten Once

Again In Latest Week

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- As gold prices continue to shine, mutual funds investing in the

metal and its producers have mined the gains.

Gold-oriented funds, which have been top performers for the last few weeks,

again claimed the top spot during the week ended Thursday, according Lipper

Analytical Services Inc.

The sector's funds on average gained 6.93% during the week, trouncing

competitors such as Canadian funds, which were the second-best sector with a

2.43% gain. Rounding out the top five list were health and biotechnology funds,

which boosted 1.44% on average; science and technology funds, with a 1.4%

gain and natural resources funds, which also got a 1.4% jump.

Lately, gold funds' performance has made the sector one of the best performing

this year. European region funds now retain the top spot, though, with a 23.51%

bounce year to date.

As one might expect, the top-performing funds on the week were the gold

metalists. The Lexington Strategic Investments Fund jumped 11.85% to show

the most growth for the week. The Rydex: Precious Metals Fund gained 9.05%

and was followed by the Evergreen Precious Metals Fund, the American

Century: AC Global Gold Fund and the PIMCO Precious Metals Fund - all of

which gained about 8.5%.

Laggard sectors for the week included China region funds, with a 2.37% loss;

Pacific Ex-Japan funds; down 1.44%; utility funds, 1.27%; real-estate funds,

1.14%; and target maturity funds, a fixed-income sector recording a 0.9% loss

on average.

Most of the worst-performing equity funds on the week were those making bets

in Asia. The Matthews International: Korea Fund, which has spent a few weeks

as the top dog, was the single worst fund this past week, losing 5.7%, according

to Lipper. But certainly, this fund's investors are willing to excuse a down week,

for the fund has gained 35.1% year to date.

Similarly, the Amerindo Technology Fund lost 5.49%, but is up 16.98% for the

year, while the Tocqueville International Value Fund was down 3.5% for the

week but has risen 20% year to date.

However, the Guinness Flight Asia Fund and the US Global China Region

Opportunities Fund haven't had an upside in a while. With both losing more than

3% in the latest week, the Guinness Flight fund is down 8.12% so far this year

while the US Global fund has dropped 5.17%.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:46 - ID#286230)
Double Post
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 20:59
Selby ( ) ID#286230:
Steve in TO:

"A few incredibly stupid governments, including the current Canadian one, have sold their gold, and used the proceeds to buy themselves some political capital ( a balanced budget" was achieved at the cost of our national assets. ) "

I don't support the current govbernment--BUT --What are you talking about.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:46 - ID#373403)
The difference between creating new money and issuing bonds is that the former brings the obligation to the present whereas the latter ( bonds ) forestalls the obligation to a future generation. Either way the burden is the same, the only point I raise is one of generational fairness.

Pay the price of our deficits today instead of tomorrow.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:46 - ID#413195)
Consulting my copy of massive work-in-progress Random House Historical Dictionary of American Slang, vol I, is this entry:

"1856 in OEDS: Bernard, assault and battery upon Wm. Croft, mulcted in the sum of twenty bucks."

So the use of 'buck' to refer to a dollar bill appears to precede even the printing of the first sawbuck, if Donald's date is correct, and I believe it is -- unless old Bernard really was fined twenty buckskins.

Someone mentioned that a buck was still worth a buck in 1880. But by 1896 the possibility that that would not always be so was in the popular literature, as there is also this entry:

"1896 F.P. Dunne, in Schaaf Dooley 130: D'ye mean to say that this buck is worth only fifty cents?"

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:47 - ID#347447)
Your 21:44 a jewel of an explanation that puts to rest the fantasies of those ( who will remain unnamed ) who believe that "fiat money" has spurred the current "prosperity."

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:49 - ID#26669)
clone, where will gold be the only money? Possibility and digression.
During the period from the late 1930's until his death there was an American conjectural fiction writer, Robert Anson Heinlein, who outlined some of many possible futures for humanity. IMHO

In one of these, so the story goes, the citizens who descended from colonists on the moon, nearby planets and asteroids evolved a banking system based on free market prices of commodities such as air, fissionables, water, aluminum, greengroceries, etc, all negotiated with gold, either solid or in electronic bank accounts. IMHO

RAH was a seminal writer whose works have largely gone unnoticed by literary critics, educators and 'serious' writers. However he was EXTREMELY popular among the movers and shakers of the WWII and bayby boomer generations. ( I've talked to many fans. Their average IQ appears to be in the 120 range with a large tail into the stratosphere above 145 and almost no fans with IQ less than about 110. ) IMHO

I have a theory about his writings with their themes of individual liberty plus individual responsibility. I believe that their emotional effect on the bright young people of the 40's though 70's probably was the deciding factor that aborted the socialist-statist-fascist revolution which nearly occurred in America during the Viet Nam era. IMHO

But his influence has faded and no one has stepped forth to take his place to guide the bright young stars. Which leads to the fear we are sorely at risk for completion of a socialist revolution within the next few years, largely by the efforts of the socialist Screen Writers Guild and their minions in the tv/video/movie industry which has largely taken the place of the written word in influencing our young people. ( As you know, to make a revolution requires the complacency of the intellectual class ) . IMHO

On another line of digression I believe fear of those specific ideals he espoused is one of the bottom-line driving motivations for the rabid anti NASA movement commonly associated with Senator Proxmire, the late Senator from Wisconsin. I find it deeply humorous that in end Proxmire's intellectual followers now support the aerospace industry as a purveyor of cheap entertainment and telephones for the proletariate. IMHO

Mike Sheller
(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:49 - ID#347447)
Come to think of it, you're our Wall Street commentator.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:50 - ID#413109)
"ANOTHER" qustion
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 17:20
" themissinglink ( Newsflash! ) ID#373403:
Copyright  1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold has already been confiscated. In a conspiracy to end all conspiracies, central banks around the
world have rounded up the worlds gold supply save a few hardcore goldbugs. There is no physical metal
anywhere!" =============
If this were the case, as Another's many posts have hinted- wouldn't
or shouldn't there be a trmendous run on physical of all kinds???

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:52 - ID#256326)
One of my former partners is a professional advisor ( I don't want to

be too exact here, but I definitely do not wish to deceive ) , and so I have had the pleasure to meet Milton Friedman and his brilliant wife, Rose. They spend part of the year in two places where I used to do the same.

He is of the generation of people who say what they think and think what they say. Very little bullshit.

( Gawd it is so hard to exist in this Age of Bullshit!!!! ) Oh, I know that money supply and velocity and all those arcane historicals mean nothing in this "Era of "Deflation"" but please, Dear Lord, let me be always an inflationist since that's what we always get anyway.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:57 - ID#255284)
looking around for my tail

I grock

(Fri Apr 24 1998 22:59 - ID#30116)
Busy chart.....
Comex gold daily chart with all kinds of kids scribbles on it....

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:04 - ID#31868)
Contemplating every word sent my way by that which is you...upon the completion of your book report on In Quest of the Sacred Baboon  A Scientists Journey, Hans Kummer  I shall tell the world the true meaning of Namaste and why I send it everywhere that I am able

Leo knows Indiansthank Goodness each of my sevens have an eleven

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:06 - ID#256326)
Kewl chart with all the basics. I remain hopeful that the current rise really IS wave three of three, but as a battle veteran must include the boilerplate that it may just be B of 2 of three.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:08 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
I cannot wait to hear your feet squash the fescue as you and yours arrive for a most hearty heart leaps for the laughter of the day, which holds those moments

My world is made more precious knowing that you breathe the same air

Bill Buckler
(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:09 - ID#256381)
Gold's no good - there's only 2% more of it per year
Mozel ( 21:44 ) Nicely put! Ask any 1000 people to define "deflation" and 995 of them will tell you that it is prices going down. Ask any 1000 people whether deflation is good or bad for an economy and 999 will tell you that it's downright awful!

There's your problem. Find me one single person who objects to paying less for something he or she wants, yet all of these people deem "deflation" to be a bad thing. It's terminal confusion brought about by modern "economic" teaching.

First, inflation was defined as a rise in the stock of money. Then, the definition changes to being a rise in the stock of money in excess of the increased production of business. Now, it is defined as rising prices. The same is true of deflation, of course.

The absurdities compound from there. Imagine giving legal tender power to a government organization and then tasking them with "monetary stability"! Of course, there's no such thing as "monetary stability". But with honest money, the general direction of prices is always down, not up. I won't repeat the reasons why, you did a top notch job of that in your own post

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:09 - ID#373403)
If I am right, a "run on the metals" would meet a cornered market. The paper gold market satisfies most speculators. Enough gold gets to market to satisfy the jewelry market and hardcore goldbug, but no more.

Coins take three weeks for delivery in a market whose price reflects greater supply than demand? Comex deliveries take months? Mine production is sold forward several years. The yearlong decline has shaken out all but the most hardcore so when a physical panic takes place, many dollars will chase few available ounces. Money is set to burn and the exits have been shut.

With 90% of the gold supply cornered, the governments will be content to let a few of us crazies profit by avoiding the impending paper money confiscation and the return to the gold standard. The coming global financial architecture will reward those of us with the conviction of physical gold.

Total global asset values divided by total global gold supply will equal the new price of gold. Then money will be convertible to gold at the revalued gold price. $30,000/oz probably is an good estimate. That means an ounce of gold will buy 50 good mens suits.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:14 - ID#266105)

Pretty nice, chart saved for posterity. After this
week the marital unit thinks it looks, well...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:14 - ID#224149)
They came and so softly - nothing to hear ?
Brainwashing ---Sleep my sweet Children ---Its only a Dream ---Away to see Invasion of the Body Snatchers on DVD 

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:16 - ID#31868)
grock - fabulous - I live for these moments to learn...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:16 - ID#373403)
Bill Buckler
Ask 1000 people if getting a raise is a good thing and 1000 of them will say yes. Then ask them if rising wages are inflationary and "bad" and they will all say yes. What does it mean? What is good for the individual is not necessarily good if it happens to everyone.

From the Standard and Poors website:

"The experimental CPI rose 0.2% on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis in March, the same increase as in the traditional measure.
The experimental index is calculated using geometric means to reflect the fact that consumers can and do change spending
patterns as relative prices change. The index has risen 1.2% over the past year, 0.2 percentage point slower than the traditional

Does this frost yer butt? Rising prices are not necesarily inflation because people stop buying so much! Ha! Just the next step of deceipt.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:19 - ID#256381)
$30000 Gold?
themissing link: It is a mistake to try to calculate the "potential" price of Gold by dividing the amount of Gold by the amount of debt paper flying around. It's all debt paper you know, including cash itself.

Take a look at Indonesia. If Gold is ever "worth" $US 30000 an ounce, you can be fairly sure that a man's suit will be "worth" many times what it is now - in the U.S., that is. It might be $3000, or $10000, or even $30000. If the price of Gold goes up to that extent, the price of everything else will go up too.

It's easy to see why people get stars in their eyes when they contemplate Gold at $3000 or $30000 and assume that the price of everything else will stay put. It just doesn't happen that way.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:24 - ID#26669)
Do you remember T.A.N.S.T.A.A.F.L.?

RAH actually stole a lot of themes from classic literature ( or got them as handmedowns and cut them to fit? ) The idea that insular peoples had an intrinsic duty to fight off the chains enslavement carried by the more civilized ones goes all the back to Boudicca in Britain and the 200 Spartans at Thermopoli. Not to mention Biblical warnings against usery and the wickedness of cities. IMHO

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:26 - ID#31868)
Bill Buckler
I rue the day that John Dewey did not have the opportunity to sit and drink a beer with you during his Quest for Certainty...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:27 - ID#256326)
Cap'n Bill Buckler, Mozel
One of the traditional arguments for gold as finance medium was that its discovery rate approximated that of population and economic growth: namely 2-3% per annum. The only problem for homo- ( not so ) -sapiens is that a steady growth accomodation does not fit terribly well with our tendency toward mania and depressions.

When Isaac Newton set price of gold at 3.17s.10 1/2d in 1717, in the aftermath of the great equity bubbles, forcing mankind into a straitjacket seemed very wise, as it will doubtless be again. But as we see in our time, we will always be looking for escape routes so that we can accomodate our fascinating fads IN our time.

This is why gold suits both tendencies. It is a store of value in all times but is abandonned when creativity ( and folly ) warrant.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:31 - ID#373403)
Please re-read
"Total global asset values divided by total global gold supply will equal the new price of gold. Then money will be convertible to gold at the revalued gold price."

My definition has nothing to do with fiat money. I am talking about the real assets of the world. This means the physical plant, real estate, commodities, transactional currency valued in a medium of exchange relative to the amount of physical gold above ground.

My definition relates the relative quantities of assets to gold. Other assets will not inflate in value relative to gold in my scenario. If they did, golds value would likewise rise above the $30,000 value. The $30,000 value is in TODAYS money. If a suit went from $600 to $1,200 in a year, then gold would also double, thereby keeping the same relative value.

It is the initial revaluation which will make an ounce of gold go from one suit to 50. After that, it will always be worth fifty suit barring a shortage of suits or an increase in mined gold relative to productivity.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:32 - ID#266105)

Grok as the story goes. As scant little of this stuff
shares existence outside the orbit of Kitco, apt.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:33 - ID#377211)
SWISS selling 1400 tons of GOLD.... = scare tactic.... to benefits Europeans AND Swiss...IMHO
Is it possible that the Swiss are reminding us that they could sell 1400 tons of gold... to simply manipulate the POG... for their own benefit and for the benefit of surrounding european countries? Here is a scenario that I propose:

Primary goal of Europeans is to have a "believable" and strong EMU... they, therefore, need to back the EMU with significant amount of gold. This gold will come from European Communities CBs ( but some countries sold their gold, and we don't know who bought it ( at least I don't ) ... is it in still in Europe? or in part out of Europe? I got some, but those American Eagles! ) . As far as we know, we have no idea what Europe is really doing, right now, about gold accumulation or selling. Is it possible that they need more gold for the EMU? Is it possible that some countries, having lend their gold to the "EMU" will want to keep more gold of their own? If there is some need for more gold in the Europeean community, then they are probably trying to accumul

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:39 - ID#31868)
All right, hold the phone, Alexander Theroux and Sammy Beckett just showed up for a beer. Can ghosts drink from clean glasses

Well, which is the fountain my heart resides in needs a new bucket

Author, Author, my cinos are being dry cleaned by a man named al who lives in pa

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:42 - ID#255284)
verbose, moi? (or mois?)

T.A.N.S.T.A.A.F.L is licking the edges of my memory, taunting my early senility. I shall not sleep without knowing the answer, I look forward to your assistance to enable morpheus to visit me tonight.

Oh, mate! Mate! I look forward to saluting your soul, down by the water's edge. And shall do so this evening.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:42 - ID#254201)
Gold Bull
KISS - Keep It Simple StupidGeorge Lane ( Father of stochastics ) while sitting in his office with his cowboy boots on his desk told me the best way to make money in the markets was to use a pencil, a straight edge and a chart book. Once you have the tools just draw trend line across the highs and lows, buy and sell off those trend lines and you'll make a lot of money. At the time I thought he was pulling my leg, it was too easy. I preferred trying to figure out the reasons why markets moved. Eventually I started doing it the simple way. Get the book "Market Wizards" and read the interview with Marty Schwartz a very successful independent trader. He was a Wall Street analyst losing money year after year who changed to a tech trader never giving back more then 3% of equity in any month.

Gold has finally closed out side of its 2 year plus down trend channel. See chart and 4/10 post. Gold may come back and test the upper channel line but the horse is out of the barn and ready to's time to buy gold. I expect an almost immediate upward move.

Don't rationalize where a market is going. Visualize where a market is going. The cash register will ring and ring often if you do!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:43 - ID#31868)
Therefore, based on your commentary, reticular does matter? Irrespective of zip-codeHmmmmmmmmmm

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:45 - ID#255284)
verbose, moi? (or mois?)

T.A.N.S.T.A.A.F.L is licking the edges of my memory, taunting my early senility. I shall not sleep without knowing the answer, I look forward to your assistance to enable morpheus to kiss me tonight.

Oh, mate! Mate! I look forward to saluting your soul, down by the water's edge. And shall do so this evening.

Buckminster Fuller's dymaxion map clearly shows this sweet gold worth to comprise virtually just one island surrounded by one sea.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:46 - ID#255284)
verbose, moi? (or mois?)

T.A.N.S.T.A.A.F.L is licking the edges of my memory, taunting my early senility. I shall not sleep without knowing the answer, I look forward to your assistance to enable morpheus to kiss me tonight.

Oh, mate! Mate! I look forward to saluting your soul, down by the water's edge. And shall do so this evening.

Buckminster Fuller's dymaxion map clearly shows this sweet gold world to comprise virtually just one island surrounded by one sea. One land. No island further than 1200 km from the mainland, besides New Zealand, that is.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:46 - ID#66136)
gaston2 the Swiss - realistically they cannot do anything significant on the sell side for quite
some time. I would not expect the smart money to be deterred till they do more than talk. Look at the SAf issues today. Many are up and the others are basically flat. My charts indicate more gradual accumulation with the start of minor corrections in the NA issues. Vol on those that gave room was very low. Let the Swiss talk.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:47 - ID#31868)
An HONOR...the big dogs swim when the rest of the planet HONOR...thank you!...

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:50 - ID#255284)
each post is different, betraying indeed, early senility, incomplete thoughts.

But then I'm listening to Bill Munro & dancin' as I type.

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:54 - ID#342376)
Thanks. Your post and chart put a smile on my face : ) Let's just enjoy the ride up!

(Fri Apr 24 1998 23:57 - ID#256326)
Indeed. Reticular and testicular always matter! That is the point.