Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:00 - ID#26669)
Aurator, sorry I got side tracked. Found some new coin pics!

Here's the address for the coin pics:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:03 - ID#256326)
Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 23:57

aurophile ( tolerant-one ) ID#256326:

Indeed. Reticular and testicular always matter! That is the point.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:06 - ID#413195)
fin, buck, etc.
Oops. It looks like 'sawbuck' first appeared in 1850 and referred to the roman numeral 'X' ( which looks like a sawhorse ) on the ten dollar bill. Also discussed, however briefly, is 'buck':

The etymology of 'fin' is here:

Other word etymologies:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:08 - ID#26669)
Aurator and all.
You know the working wage in the 13th Century was a penny a year? The pennies were made of bronze. The theory then was as it is now, only important people should be able to own gold. IMHO

BTW, on that link I gave you listed under Greek coins is the most beautiful image of an 'Athena' I've ever seen. I captured it to set as wallpaper. Goodnight.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:09 - ID#256326)
This new day in North America is Lucas 199 from 8 October 1997, a most auspicious timing. Up or down? Sentiment data suggest further down ( for equities ) , but I must admit I have not done all my homework yet. Ciao!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:11 - ID#31868)
aurator - bucky was amazing
In HONOR of one of the most fantastic minds I ever knewonce again I would like the world to read this thought

In Memory of Gerard K. ONeill
February 6th, 1927  April 27th, 1992

In a sea of pessimism Dr. ONeill touched everyone with his vision of building a free, peaceful, exciting future for our country and for the world. When we look into the skies at night, our memories will be illuminated with his vision and hope of a better world for generations to come.

Space Studies Institute, NJ

Tears fall from my ducts even the mighty are allowed to kneel before the truly great onessorrow, but, optimism given unto me by one of the truly noblepupils do more than refractthey absorb the energy and give unto others

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:22 - ID#20135)

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441


-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

-20,298 60,639 33,539,231
0 -60,639 55,244,805
-20,298 0 88,784,036

COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today


Gold 17,500
Silver 19,000
H.G. Copper 20,000

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:24 - ID#413109)
Some of your were having problems with volume on incedies charts

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:28 - ID#256326)
very old gold
Where I live, on the fringe of the great Chihuahua Desert/Great Basin/High Plains/Rocky Mountains, we are about to be celebrated of the quatrocentenario of the Spanish invasion. One of the purposes of said invasion was to grab the fabulous gold of the Seven Cities of Cibola. As events transpired, the gold proved to be the real estate, and the local folks got decimated in the land grab........but not quite...... Some of the residual locals have invited the Spanish Government to a reconcilation conference during the celebrations which may or may not lead to healing of these ancient gold-driven agressions.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:30 - ID#347447)
good nites good kitcoites
It is heartwarming to know that most of the remaining above ground physical gold supply is in the hands of kitcoites. Couldn't happen to a better gang!

As for me, perhaps I had better sell my bullion now before the dramatic revaluation. I don't know what I would do with so many suits.

aurator: there are truly no stranger in this strange land. Nor more poetic ( save sharefin's dad ) ( not unlike save the whales )

tolerant: Am memorizing the dictionary in training for Ruth. Keep the Wall Street commentary comming.

Well, Mars has done its work this week...Mars has done its work.
For those who disbelieve cycles, I would suggest try going without sleep. %- )
G'day n' G'nite all.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:32 - ID#31868)
The sweetest and happiest dreams to you and yours...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:34 - ID#257136)
clone@19:13. I have dealings with two. They are PAX and La Suisse in Switzerland.
Give 'em a try.
La Suisse is @Avenue de Rumine 13
1005 Lausanne Switzerland

Telephone 021-313-60 00
CP 10-320-5 fax 021 313 76 00

Or PAX @ CH-4002/Basel Switzerland Aaschenplatz 13
Phone+41-61-277 66 66 Fax # 41-61-277 64 56

A search for a web page may be a good idea.
It has never come up for me, so don't know if they have them or not.

Prometheus: Yours of 10:30 was a real aid to me.
I've merely skimmed the surface of the various concepts you outlined.
The post helped all the prior input to jell. Thanx!!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:37 - ID#39828)
Yanks keep hitting the button. Like the coked monkey, but the coke aint being served no more.
Saturday 25 April, 1998 ( 10:42am AEST )

The United States says it welcomes the economic policy
measures announced by Japan yesterday, but believes
Tokyo should take "further action" to boost growth.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin says the 128 billion dollar
stimulus package is one of a series of "positive steps" by the
Japanese government.

But he says Tokyo should move forward with further
action, including measures to strengthen Japan's financial

Mr Rubin says Japan must also deregulate its economy in
order to help establish a lasting economic recovery.

Japan yesterday announced tax cuts and record spending to
rescue the world's second largest economy from recession.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:42 - ID#31868)
This then is a truth, so be it...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:45 - ID#31868)
a.j. - have not forgotten you...
I have been attacked by various 2 and 3 year olds...will call...promise!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:45 - ID#256326)
astropologia for Mike Sheller
There is no convincing of the ignorant whose minds are closed, but here is a small piece from a Bell Labs ( Lucent ) scientist on financial astrology:

"There is absolutely no doubt that the moon has a major influence on the S&P 500, especially during the trading day. This influence comes from a real, physical cause and effect relationship.

Everyone knows that the moon has a strong effect on the oceans. It pulls the ocean waters into massive tides. On the average the moon raises the entire ocean surface about six feet as the earth rotates. In a particular bay, the rise and fall may be far larger, due to the shape of the bay. In the Bay of Fundy, tides can rise 50 feet. So in ocean

tides, there is an average level, and a "personalized" level for each bay.

The same thing applies to the effect of the moon on markets. There is an average effect, and a "personalized effect." But what is it that is being tugged by the moon? What links the moon to the intraday price swin

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:48 - ID#31868)
define swin...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:51 - ID#256326)
The same thing applies to the effect of the moon on markets. There is an average effect, and a "personalized

effect." But what is it that is being tugged by the moon? What links the moon to the intraday price swings?

The link is through the earth's electric field. As the solar wind carries ionized particles from the sun, they form a

charged layer around the earth, called the ionosphere. That layer charges up to about +300,000 volts. The earth's

surface, upon which we stand, is the zero volt end of that battery. You, me, all of us, stand in that electric field. It

places a voltage of about 250 volts on our heads. It causes a current of 250,000 nanoamperes to flow though us. Our

brains work on currents near one nanoampere. So these external currents are much, much larger than our

bio-currents. When these currents surge, we feel them as emotions. And when we feel emotional, we trade

emotionally! So prices move up and down with tides in these currents. These tides can change 20 percen

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:53 - ID#288155)
Hello! Found this interesting--how to build a paper market!
December 1995
Agreement with the London Bullion Market Association about supplies of bullion

1. The Commissioners of HM Customs and Excise have agreed with the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) certain practical rules to govern the VAT treatment of supplies of bullion ( gold and silver excluding coins ) on the London Bullion Market. Supplies on or after the 1 July 1991 come within the terms of this agreement.

2. Under the terms of the Value Added Tax ( Terminal Markets ) Order 1973 there is provision for zero-rating supplies of bullion where both parties to the transaction are LBMA members. In addition, supplies to and from an LBMA member and a non-member are zero-rated provided the transaction does not lead to physical delivery. Supplies on the Market which are zero-rated can be regarded as taking place within a VAT-free ring or black box, the term used in this agreement.

3. It has been agreed, broadly in confirmation of existing working practices within the Market, that with certain exceptions all supplies of bullion, including loans, should be treated as being zero-rated, provided the bullion is not physically removed from the black box. This will apply to all supplies of bullion irrespective of the counterparties involved ( whether LBMA members or non-members, or whether the bullion is allocated or unallocated ) . Bullion will be regarded as having been so removed when effective physical control is transferred from an LBMA member to a non-member. The term effective physical control includes cases where bullion leaves the possession of an LBMA member but remains under the members control and responsibility. Where physical bullion leaves the black box because an LBMA member relinquishes effective physical control, VAT will be charged and accounted for by the LBMA member so relinquishing control. VAT will be charged at the standard rate for domestic transactions and at the zero rate in the case of exports where the actual export is arranged by the relevant LBMA member, subject to the usual satisfactory evidence of exportation being produced. Where a non-member takes physical delivery of bullion in the United Kingdom for subsequent export arranged by the non-member, the LBMA member would charge VAT at the standard rate, leaving the non-member to reclaim VAT at the time of export.

4. Under this regime, the LBMA member who relinquishes physical control of bullion when it leaves the black box will be deemed for all relevant VAT purposes to have made the supply to the non-LBMA member, irrespective of whether the member had title at that point to the bullion in question. In particular, the LBMA member will raise a VAT invoice and treat the VAT charged to the customer as their output tax. The customer will treat it as recoverable input tax provided it is attributable to other taxable supplies.

7. Agreement has also been reached on the correct treatment of bullion loans. These can take two forms: purely financial paper transactions, where the loan is a pure book transfer not involving any physical delivery of bullion and consignments, where physical bullion is made available to the customer to work on, but where payment is not required until a later date. In both cases a charge expressed as a rate of interest is made for the duration of the loan.

It is rather like the "borrow yen, buy US Treasuries" ploy, yes? {:- )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:55 - ID#256326)
et puis.........
These tides can change 20 percent in a few


The moon is a major contributor to these tides in the earth's electric field. At new moon, the moon is between the

earth and the sun. It traps charges, lowering the voltage on the ionosphere, and on us. We feel down and sad. At full

moon, the moon reflects charges that have passed the earth back into the ionosphere, raising the voltage. We feel

giddy and happy. We trade according to how we feel.

As the earth rotates, it moves the stock and commodity exchanges past the moon every day. It moves them under the

moon, away from the moon, and to moonrise and moonset positions. These four positions can be found in the

intraday price actions of stocks and commodities.

Each stock or commodity has a different sensitivity to these electric tides. Just as the shape of a bay determines the

response of the bay to the average tides, the nature of the market determines the response of the market to the moon

tides in the earth's electric field.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:56 - ID#31868)
HOW ARE YOU?????????????????????????????

(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:57 - ID#31868)
you know what I meant!!!

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 00:58 - ID#24135)
Horses for courses
for Salty
I had a horse once ..

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:00 - ID#256326)
et enfin, je l'espere
Learning to compute tides has taken mankind several hundred years. Only with the invention of the computer and

intense mathematical modeling has the goal been reached. So it should come as no surprise that the moon's electric

tides have not been computed - until now.

After many years of effort, I have learned to compute the moon tides that effect the S&P 500. This is a very difficult

task, and one I am proud to have accomplished.

Unlike the ocean tides, there are TWO moon tides, a positive one and a negative one. They are caused by the

counter-rotating waves set up in the earth's electric field. So one never has a perfect picture of which way prices will

go, just when they will turn.

This is what leads to chaos is markets. The two forces work against each other, as the buyers and the sellers

compete. When these forces balance, prices congest. When one force wins a temporary advantage, prices move

rapidly - we call that chaos. The S&P 500 is famous for it's "streaks". It's bu

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:00 - ID#31868)
Who was Salty and why did you agree? A debt?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:06 - ID#288155)
Logam Mulia Refinery...reckon they might mint some dinars and dirhams?
"Antam owns and operates refinery namely Logam Mulia with an annual production capacity of 60 tonnes of fine gold and 270 tonnes of fine silver. The Refinery is only one in Indonesia which refines all primary bullion produced in the country and a small quantity of recycled scrap gold, silver and platinum. The refinery was constructed in 1979, in the Pulo Gadung area eastern Jakarta, approximately 18 km from the city center..."

Goodnight. "See" you tomorrow! {:- )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:07 - ID#256326)
So I say, let the reticular ( non-acinar ) , atesticular have their say. They truly have their reward.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:09 - ID#31868)
I have one feeling and you just crushed it...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:10 - ID#256326)

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:11 - ID#288155)
Hello my friend. Tolerant1, you have been writing some mighty fine
posts! I've spent the last five hours catching up {well, one never
REALLY catches up ) . I'll probably regret asking, but WHY is Jimmy dancing with an umbrella? Is "umbrella" a code word? {:- ) )

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:13 - ID#24135)
To all disenchanted Rangold Holders..
I bought some more stock today .. Because
1. I talked to a guy that updates the NAV
and he told me it was 15 rand plus
2. After a brief conversation, I concluded that
the man was less bright than I had hoped
since he had not updated his calcuation for
a week.
3. Reference ( 2 ) above the value wont include
recent JSE moves on DRooy and its options,
Harmony, and Crown. However, half of rangold
comprises Rangold resources ( traded london )
which I cannot follow. The quote I used was
4. I will phone the man in Joburg Tuesday
who runs Randgold Resources ( monday is freedom
day another of mandela looney tune holidays )
and find out how to follow and start doing the
calculation myself.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:15 - ID#288155)
TI--"define swin"
an intern swine?
Goodnight. God bless.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:16 - ID#31868)
the crickett...?????

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:20 - ID#31868)
All is well that I now know you are somewhere invigorating conversation for people that have respectful ears.

GULP, to YA!

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:24 - ID#24135)
Alice doesnt live here anymore
For Tolerant1
Regarding "Salty" ... my lips are sealed ...
or the consequences may be "DIRE" ( get it "DIRE"?? =
CLUE CLUE .. I think ?? ) .
but when did I agree with him ??? I remember nothing.
What is happening ??
Another transversal of the dreaded LOOKING GLASS??

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:27 - ID#401460)
Tolerant1 - IMF Pressure to approve funding.

Jimmy Rogers was right when he called the IMF a "Ponzie scheme" today, these guys are trying to get it all. It's a real shell game with oter peoples money.

I kept digging into one particular company press releases and found some really interesting stuff on American International Group - Derivatives big time, market manipulation suggested in a SEC report.

Well the Big Boys, GE, Boeing, American International Group, etc. and remember their partners: GE owns NBC, MSNBC, Bil Gates/ Boeing, and best of all Goldman Sachs whose Vice Chairman is our Secretary of the Treasury are going to throw their weight around.

Once they get the IMF funding, Clintons job is complete, maybe that is why his cabinet is resigning so early he will be leaving soon also. They have what they want now - access to ownership in Asia.

Friday April 24, 9:01 pm Eastern Time

U.S. business group to step up fight for IMF

WASHINGTON, April 24 ( Reuters ) - A U.S. business coalition said on Friday it would lobby congressional leaders to revive an $18-billion package for the International Monetary Fund, saying too much was at stake to give up.

Brilliant, Asian affairs manager at the Chamber of Commerce, said the business coalition would ``pound away at the House leadership'' to get IMF funding to the floor for a vote.

``We have to seek out our friends to continue to put pressure on the House leadership to break the logjam,'' Brilliant said.

``I don't think it's dead,'' said Myron Brilliant, who chairs the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Ad Hoc Coalition for IMF Replenishment. ``I think business is energized.''

The coalition -- which represents major companies including American International Group ( AIG - news ) , Boeing Co. ( BA - news ) , ATT ( T - news ) , General Electric Co. ( GE - news ) and Motorola Inc. ( MOT - news )
-- met earlier on Friday to discuss strategy.

The coalition plans to place advertisements in newspapers next week urging Congress to support the IMF, a spokesman said.

All of these companies are in trouble with out the Asian funding.

Remember the name American International Group.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:30 - ID#31868)
I should have killed that Rabbit when I had the opportunity...bugs me still, to this very day...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:32 - ID#401460)
AIG / Boeing / GE / Asian Aircraft

The American International Group Inc ( AIG - news; AIG )
``We're discussing the matter of buying a bank in Poland and talks are underway. In the next few weeks
they'll be completed...I won't disclose the name of the bank,'' Andreas Vassilou told a news conference.

AIG is currently the sole owner of Polish life insurer Amplico Life SA and non-life AIG Poland Insurance

Friday April 17, 4:30 am Eastern Time

Japan insurers say AIG asking about Aoba takeover

TOKYO, April 17 ( Reuters ) - The Life Insurers' Association of Japan said on Friday that American International Group Inc ( AIG ) ( AIG - news ) has asked it to study the possibility of AIG taking over Aoba Life Insurance.

Friday April 17, 1:44 am Eastern Time
Asiana targets B747 aircraft sale by end of May

HONG KONG, April 17 ( Reuters ) - South Korean airline Asiana Inc said on Friday it was in talks regarding the sale of one Boeing Co ( BA - news ) 747-400 aircraft and hoped to reach a deal by the end of May.

``We are seriously negotiating one 747 airplane now,'' an Asiana official told Reuters in a telephone interview from Seoul. ``We are targeting the end of May.''

The carrier sold one Boeing 737-500 to Sunrock Aircraft Corp, a leasing division of Nissho Iwai Corp ( 8063.T ) of Japan, at the end of Febrary this year, the official said.

Asiana is also in talks with International Lease Finance Corp, a unit of American International Group ( AIG - news ) , about returning two leased Boeing 767s, the official said.

In January, the carrier returned three leased Boeing 767-300 aircraft to General Electric Co's ( GE - news ) GECAS unit and one Boeing 737-500 to Danish Maersk, part of the shipping group A.P. Moeller ( DSACb.CO ) .

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:32 - ID#31868)
Access to Asia, at what price my friend...?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:39 - ID#401460)

A big price for the Asians and now the rest of us will have to finance the deal / problem - or whatever

Do you remember last fall, there was a little noticed article about how the Asians for the first time were going to allow foreign ownership of their companies - probably part of the deal that the IMF is forcing down their throats.

But more than that they may have leveraged themselves into a financial problem.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:41 - ID#401460)
AIG & Russia

Friday April 24, 10:10 am Eastern Time
BOSTON, Mass., April 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Chancellor Corporation ( OTC Bulletin Board: CHLR - news )
announces today that it has been named to a Russian Leasing Task Force that will provide strategic advice to the Banking and Financial Services Subgroup of the US-Russia Business Development Committee by the Equipment Leasing Association ( ELA ) . This Subgroup is chaired by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Service Industries and Finance Everette James and Russian Deputy Minister of the Economy Vyacheslav Morgunov. Chancellor joins American International Group ( NYSE: AIG - news ) , Citicorp ( NYSE: CCI - news ) , and Caterpillar Financial Services, a subsidiary of Caterpillar, Inc. ( NYSE: CAT - news ) , as members of this task force.

They are on all Continents!


(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:42 - ID#256326)
All seriousness aside, GCM8 did manage today to remain above the 200 dma which is still, decades later and for no reason, still considered "key" when putting client money on the line. ( I guess they can show the lawyers a chart if worse comes to worse. )

From a wave perspective, the debate is whether the market is now into wave 3 of 3 ( from January ) or whether this latest spurt is 5 of 1 of 3.

( If you are not an Elliottist, please tune to C-Span or other non-educational TV. ) The larger debate is whether the whole module from January is merely a pause in the on-going Prechterian doomsday scenario.

( Naturally I could not present that viewpoint on this podium. )

Based upon recent years, gold has become rather overbought, which is NOT a term of disparagement ( pace LA anti-goldshort posse ) .

Given that it is late in the game for equities, bonds, and dollar, it is certainly worth a shot with a modest portion of net worth ( larger if subject to religious conviction ) on the gold line.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:43 - ID#285392)
Market Wizards
Publisher Harper & Row Inc.
10 East 53rd Street, New York NY 10022
ISBN 0-06-097329-3

Also available at Books of Wall street 1998 Catalog
PO box 1051 Stn Main
Fort Erie Ontario Canada L2A 6K7

Price $15.00 Canadian, Canadian dollar is worth .70 cents American or we pay $1.40 for US--The book will cost Americans approximately $10.00 US

Marty Schwartz Champion trader page 257-280

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:44 - ID#31868)
I'm not done with you pal...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:45 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmm...thinking, or attempting to...promise...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:45 - ID#210235)
Dear sir, hope you know I was just teasing about the ring. I am thinking
up excuses to visit my sister in Manhattan to see it ( you ) this year. Looks'
like you're getting a serious workout on Winnie Pooh and Wind o' Willows.
Good for the soul. Your unconditional love posts are a great contrast
to the norm of this group. Bless you. Love Bucky, too. Write down your
references and if I can't get to them now, will later. It's a trying, busy
time, but glorious.

Want to see that ring! ( Can't stand the things myself ) .

Namaste. L.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:46 - ID#256326)
They made their cache selling life ( and cancer ) insurance door to door to
in Asia. They know the turf.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:51 - ID#256326)
They are doing a nice one in ( ja! ) Flagstaff again. Glenn Ross is nothing if not forceful. Not quite as echt as Bayreuth, but one of the better.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:52 - ID#401460)

From SEC disclosure report:>
Over half of the report deals with the companies investment hedging - Derivatives, Equity/Commodity Swaps and swaptions etc. etc.

Well worth a quick look see - lays out exactly what they have been doing.

Scroll down to

Derivatives are financial arrangements among two or more parties whose returns are linked to or "derived" from some underlying equity, debt, commodity or other asset, liability, or index. Derivatives payments may be based on interest rates and exchange rates and/or prices of certain securities, certain commodities, or financial or commodity indices. The more significant types of derivative arrangements in which AIG transacts are swaps, forwards, futures, options and related instruments.

All significant derivatives activities are conducted through AIGFP and AIGTG permitting AIG to participate in the derivatives dealer market acting primarily as principal. In these derivative operations, AIG structures agreements which generally allow its counterparties to enter into transactions with respect to changes in interest and exchange rates, securities' prices and certain commodities and financial or commodity indices. Generally, derivatives are used by AIG's customers, such as corporations, financial institutions, multinational organizations, sovereign entities, government agencies and municipalities. For example, a futures, forward or option contract can be used to protect the customers' assets or liabilities against price

AIG actively manages the exposures to limit potential losses, while maximizing the rewards afforded by these business opportunities. In doing so, AIG must manage a variety of exposures including credit, market, liquidity, operational and legal risks.

Market risk principally arises from the uncertainty that future earnings are exposed to potential changes in volatility, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and equity and commodity prices. AIG generally controls its exposure to market risk by taking offsetting positions. AIG's philosophy with respect to its financial services operations is to minimize or set limits for open or uncovered positions that are to be carried. Credit risk exposure is separately managed. ( See the discussion on the management of credit risk below. )

Notice that they play with Commodities. There fore I would assume control of the CRB, Gold, etc. is very important to them.

They want the 18 Billion to cover their Derivative and Real estate exposure.

AMERICAN ? Really Now.

This is who the IMF represents not Countries but Indeviduals and Corporations.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:55 - ID#285392)
APH -- Thanks for the chart and the confirmation on gold
It looks like you were right on "time running out on the downside". Do you have any dollar and time targets for golds move up. By the way I really appreciate your chart and sharing this simplified method. I have tried everything else for the last 30 years and it all seems to become more confusing. Here I am at a grandfather and still trying. Thanks in advance for all of your help, it is valued.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 01:58 - ID#228128)
John Disney
Can you tell me the symbol for Durban Deep on the JSE?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:01 - ID#413109)
Question for all
Since my forte' is not short term predictions, but I watch the markets
carefully, why do I see the gold stocks looking like they are about to
correct here? Farfel in his eloquent post earlier was speaking about a
strong up move starting next week. I see the opposite-"short term".
Comments please.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:02 - ID#210235)
Dear friend, I enjoyed your post about Milton aand Rose. Hope their
methods work. I am much more than 50% still invested against
inflation. It's the rare person who isn't these days. The devil you know,

Anyway, haven't a clue what's going on in Flagstaff. It's part of the
great tune, Route 66. I can sing it but don't know about any meetings
or the personages to whom you refer. What's cooking?

Yours, a little dense, promey. Go ahead and spell it out for me. I won't
be insulted. Promise.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:03 - ID#31868)
The fabulous are those who await you to fall asleep and leap on to your eyelashes and then guard your dreamswrite me again, and let me know when you will arrive in the AppleTHIS IS MY TOWN

My dreams are made of the victories of your arrival...


(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:05 - ID#210235)
tol 1
Am I tired or what? Meant to say "I write down your references, and
if I can't get to them now, will later". It's this new stupid machine I'm
using for the first time tonight. Sorry. Should sign off now. May try to
correct the errors.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:07 - ID#401460)
Why So Important? - $18 Billion

It has been a good week for Gold and I hope that the trend will continue. If the masses are rotating to the PM the Big Guys will have to go with the flow, if not they have the power to continue to manipulate everything.

AIG's disclosure if you do take the time to look is really scary. They are an Insurance Co that'sa into a lot of things and places. It would appear that a major part of their company is investment. And those Investments sound very vulnerable to me.

It would be interesting to know who their banker is.

What really puzzels me is that $18 billion in the total scheme of things is not that much money; SO why is it that important to them? They appear to be scared to death, like if they don't get it the world will come to an end.

Good Night All
and Have a Good Weekend.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:08 - ID#255151)

As I understand it, one of the big sticking points of IMF funding is the secrecy of the IMF itself. A few in Congress are demanding a full accounting of IMF use of funds, which the IMF adamantly opposes. Seems to me Congress could get the public on its side over this question.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:09 - ID#256326)
Very happy to learn that not all the gold folk are deflationists, not that it matters.

Flag is doing the Ring again this summer, which is what I ( probably ) mistakenly thought you were referring to...... Yep, rte 66.

Gone for now. Cheers all!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:09 - ID#210235)
Thanks for a great day. Waiting and watching. There is much to learn
from people far away from different fields. Thank you and the best life
offers to you. 'Night. BBML

p.s. Aurophile, I will be looking for your answer to my last. 'Night.. Promey.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:10 - ID#31868)
I kneel before the explosion that is the nativity that is yours...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:11 - ID#339212)
I agree 100% with aurophile

the moon affects tides,

the moon affects human minds,

it creates chaos and reckless behaviour at times,

for a good definition of a "LUNATIC" see Webster's dictionary.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:13 - ID#31868)
I say we KILL the lying bastards...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:17 - ID#256326)
It has been known to affect Kitco as well. ( I wish I could get Warner Comm. to let me play the tune for all here present. )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:24 - ID#256326)
bubba bb
Attention! Has anyone seen or heard from the great b b fisher of Kitco of yore? I know he has withdrawn to druid-land, but still and all ( as Auntie Nelly would have said ) , he has a certain duty to his devotees. Come out fisher wherever you be.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:26 - ID#401460)

I agree, I started to read that stuff and I just got so Pi**** I wanted to scream.

The public and the media is so busy following all of this Clinton dick stuff that they are missing the real event.

I have thought of the idea that what if all of us started to send composites of this information to our local media - letters to the editor type of stuff. It could work or get us killed like Clinton's associates.

I sometimes think that is their plan - diversion.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:26 - ID#66136)
John Disney Maybe a payback for your good thoughts
Notice strong move by Minorco ( mnrcy ) today which is heavly owned by DBRSY and AAGIY.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:26 - ID#31868)
and, so should we entrust ourselves,
to us, affirmation is delineated in its own time and manner, man, nor woman controls this function, mathematics is not chaos, some, today think so, but they are incorrect in their desires, to allow ego to infringe upon what is so vast, when pygmies nibble the canopy in the rain forest, NOT

thus endeth this lesson

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:33 - ID#66136)
John Disney correction as angly and not aagiy holds Minorco shares

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:40 - ID#31868)
Resolve, trust, honor and faith...contemplation, think of these...we shall vanquish them...sit, and remember we will slaughter any who might attempt to mitigate the loveliness of a baby understanding the beauty and use of a twigso very long before the fore, there was play, I pity those that do not understand that

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:50 - ID#31868)
You have auricles and ventricles, these are auspices of your HEARTdo not allow hatred, or improperly ill-suited vigor to over-run

Understanding, open hands and forgiveness are the beat awaiting, awakening your ability to surf the flow

Love shall win

Thus the lesson endeth

(Sat Apr 25 1998 02:52 - ID#16255)
@clone.. Who is John Galt anyway???
I was wonder when someone would bring up Atlas Shrugged! Just read it
this last summer while on a 3 month rv vacation in the west. Most
excellent and I kept telling my wife that she ( we ) are in this book!
The book was given to me by my goldbug mentor and he insisted that
I read it! 2nd best advice he has given me. Gold was the first.
On Marriage, the first one cost me a 100 grand. This one is going on 15yrs and just keeps getting better!! I am a lucky Man.
Are the other works of Ayn Rand as good as Atlas Shrugged?

Take care... kepp your powder dry... O.L.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 03:29 - ID#24135)
It's rough here ..
To Buff Idt et al
A FINE African morning .. chill in the air .. clear
skies .. Fresh Papaya for breakfast served with black
coffee by long limbed young maid .. Racing today ..
3 tracks .. will watch on subscription TV and bet in
my telephone account in my favorite 3rd world country.
God how I suffer here...
I THINK the symbol here is "DURBAN" but Im not sure..
only just learned "DROOY" and "RANGY" ... left USA
before abbreviations took over... BUT I can do am pm
bc and ad with no problem.
Have not looked at Minorco for ages.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 03:43 - ID#255267)
I would like a good suggestion for introductory reading on your subject matter. I am a science based sign of the fish fascinated with the skies. I now have the time to study these ideologies and would like an introductory suggestion to such thought. Please forward some introductory reading

(Sat Apr 25 1998 03:54 - ID#255267)
@J Disney
Your advice has proved profitable. I went into HGMCY @ 4.5 out at 5.75 and into DROOY @ 3 3/8. I will probablty ride DROOY until RANGY hits 2.5 then maybe another jump. I dont think the summer bull will last forever. Will watch close. My TVX and CAU holdings will stay as is until capital gains allows.

If you are ever headed towards Arizona post it and I'll send you an Email address.

Good Day Sir!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 03:59 - ID#255284)
salty kisses taste the same as ---

What is it that separates us from the animals?
Is it thought?
Is it prayer?
Is it love?

Or is it that we don't use our tongues to clean our own genitals?


(Sat Apr 25 1998 04:47 - ID#255284)
"Well, salty, you sure know how to empty a bar."
Arrr, it takes years of practice.

Listening to Johnny Horton's "One Woman Man" sung by Bill Kirchen.

Thanks for the link to the Singing Brakeman.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 05:14 - ID#255151)

Heh heh. Where'd everybody go? Just got in and read the last 12 hours of posts. Was thinking about the volume of the written word here at Kitco. Any idea of the number of average book pages written per day here?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 05:40 - ID#284255)
The turning of the tides?
The FIN who shares.

The poet who cares.

The prawns for the Kitco bash.

In a black moment
Doubt assailed me
But the Voice said:-

Fear not
Great mysteries
Hover unresolved
Not yet divined
Nor yet imagined
Within you

The future seed
Of tomorrows tumult
And its beauty
And the wonder
Of unborn years
Such seed is yours

The reason and the work
Of the long years to be
Are germane to you
The art and architecture
Of the new world
Shaped by your spirit
Contained within your seed
Safe in your childrens hands
Their unborn progeny

And I said
" Father I rest my faith in Thee "

(Sat Apr 25 1998 05:46 - ID#255284)
speed reading-- one of de best things i lurnt, that and touch typing, self-cleaning, yaddy yaddy

Yeah, I know exactly the no of pages each day. Without doing strict maths

Note, the dates, when precise are antipodean archiving dates rather than Montreal timed dates:

March 97 ave 35 pages per day

April through July 97 ave 50, but steadily increasing

By Sept 97 we were getting highs of over 100 pages per day averaging about 70

Then it got difficult to archive a day at a time with the new split format until Feb this year. Basically you could only archive one session until the latest face-lift. so I've got no daily data until the revamp

That's when it got interesting :

First day of new format Feb 17 1998 113 Pages
Every day in last week of Feb 98 over 120 pages

March 98 ave about 120-130

Peak day in March was 27 March 171 pages ( is all time top too )

April looks about the same 120+ ave but have had two days 150+

that's a lot of word thingies, yes?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 05:54 - ID#26793)
A comment on short term predictions for this week. I had a 41% gain in my XAU/Spot strategy on Thursday at the close. After agonizing over the closeness of the Ratio at .297 I decided to stick it out and use a little discipline waiting for two days closing above .300 or a reading of .307 intraday. History says that the Farfel prediction of a plus week will be fulfilled, but.....

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:05 - ID#255151)

Looks like I picked the right one to ask that question! Yes, that is a lot of writing. Thanks.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:11 - ID#255284)
Truly you are blessed, and we, who stand in the shadow of its passing, are blessed thereby.
Photographs of clan Laird and a heartfelt poem to generations of Lairds present and to come. What a kitco! To inspire such generosity of spirit.
Great fortune is already yours, Nick.
That golden fortune within your heart that neither moth nor soldier can deprive. Truly, you are blessed.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:18 - ID#247257)

Last week there were two posters who discussed their involvement in dealing with Y2k problems. I have a computer background and see this as a very important field to enter into as there will be a great need for qualified people. What skills, languages and software packages must I know or learn in order to "sell myself" in the job market as a Y2K professional?

I shall greatly appreciate your input. Thank you.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:19 - ID#247257)
on second thoughts
I would appreciate anyone's input as there are so many knowledgeable people here. Thank you.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:20 - ID#255284)
April has so far 8 days over 140 pages.
gotta get a life. I'd have a lifestyle, if only I had time.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
Your question about notes in circulation. I recall reading somewhere that the $1,000 note was the largest size used in general commerce. Notes of $5 and $10 thousand were printed but only used for inter-bank settlements.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:26 - ID#255284)
Late breaking sheep news
As the days to 1/1/2000 approach, all that will be needed is a warm body that can string a sentence together.
But I'm being too glib and salty. Stick around, others will be happy to help you when they wake up. I'm off to join morpheus abed.

Didja see that the world's first cloned sheep, Dolly has just had a lamb, gotten the old fashioned way, to prove her fertility.

Hello Dolly.
Well Hello Dolly,
It's so nice to have you baaaaack where you belong

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:41 - ID#255284)
Where Three Roads meet

according to my source, which is proving to be as reliable as most sharebrokers:

"The highest denomination note ever issued by the U.S. Federal
Reserve System was a note for $100,000. It was used only for
transactions between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury

As to weight:

A new U.S. dollar bill weighs about 0.03 oz. ( and is worth every pennyweight )

And, to answer my last trivia question myself, kinda like a pre-hensile exploratory tongue looking for my mensana tail 223?

What is the highest denomination note ever created or issued?

During severe hyperinflation in Hungary during and after World War II,
the Hungarian government created the 1 milliard B. pengo note. It was
never issued, however. One milliard B. pengo corresponds to a denomination of...

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 pengo

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this number, if these were US
dollars, it would be enough for every human on Earth to have over 200
billion dollars each!
The highest denomination issued was the next lower note which was
100,000,000 B. pengo note ( only 20 billion dollars each :- ) .

like that old song--

Who wants to be a pengo billionaire?
I do?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:44 - ID#255151)

Lookit here. Remind you of anyone?

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:48 - ID#24135)
If gold falls all bets are off
for aztec
No guaratees but
1. Deeps has little overhead volume to 6
2. Harmony should be fairly clear to 6.75
3. Rangy breaks out at $1 5/8 and is clear to $2 7/8

Thats my story and Im sticking to it.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 06:51 - ID#24135)
Very late breaking sheep news
Bad accident on N1 .. 3 killed.. no
sheep were involved

(Sat Apr 25 1998 07:27 - ID#248180)
@Bubble Burst- This article is a few days old, & a must read.

Columnists 

ASIA: How bubbles burst
Many people think the Asian crisis will pass the US and Europe by. In fact, it is worsening western asset overvaluation, writes Martin Wolf
Last week Washington witnessed an outbreak of galloping complacency. At the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank - and the accompanying gathering of finance ministers of the Group of Seven leading economies - assembled western worthies spent much time on the difficulties in east Asia and the slump threatening Japan. But the US and European economies were held to be in fine fettle.

For Americans, this is the best of all possible worlds. Their economy is in rude health; Asia has fallen by the wayside; and The American Way has been vindicated. As Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said on April 2, "the lesson that appears to be emerging is that only free-market systems exhibit the flexibility and robustness to accommodate human nature and harness rapidly advancing technology to consistently advance living standards". Mr Greenspan may well be right. Yet pride goeth before a fall.

The danger is not to be seen in the IMF's latest forecasts. In the World Economic Outlook, global output this year is forecast to grow 3.1 per cent. The advanced economies are expected to rise 2.4 per cent. These figures are lower than the original forecasts last October, which were 4.3 and 2.9 per cent respectively.

Given the Asian crash, such adjustments are modest. They would, for example, bear no comparison to the slowdowns of the mid-1970s, mid-1980s and early 1990s, as the chart shows. Moreover, the reduction in forecast growth is restricted almost entirely to the Asian economies themselves: Japan's forecast growth this year has been lowered by 2.1 percentage points, to zero; that of the newly industrialised Asian economies - Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan - by 4.2 percentage points, to 1.8 per cent; Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines by 8.1 percentage points, to minus 2.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, US forecast growth is down a mere 0.3 percentage points ( to 2.9 per cent ) , while the European Union economy is forecast to maintain its 2.8 per cent growth rate unchanged from last October. Though it is true that the Asian crisis has had a bigger impact on other developing countries, the overall picture is still clear: the impact is expected to be essentially local, even with Japan included. Its effect on the other important industrial economies will be marginal.

The reason complacency might be justified is that the direct negative effects of Asian events on trade and gross domestic product are powerfully offset by beneficial indirect effects. As the IMF notes, even though exports to Asia may well fall sharply, the declines in bond yields in most industrial countries since mid-1997 "are likely to have an offsetting and stimulative effect on growth". Furthermore, equity prices have reached new peaks.

These offsetting effects are inter-related. Asian events are causing a one-off reduction in inflationary pressure and allowing a looser monetary policy than would otherwise have been pursued, above all in Japan. This loose monetary policy is blowing air into the asset bubble, almost everywhere except Japan.

Such indirect effects are as significant as the direct effect of the Asian crisis through trade. US merchandise exports to Asia ( including Japan ) accounted for only about 3 per cent of its GDP in the mid-1990s, while imports from Asia equalled 5 per cent of GDP. For the EU, the shares were 2 and 3 per cent of GDP respectively. Indeed, for these very large, fairly closed economies, the direct impact of a slump elsewhere is bound to modest. What matters far more to them is the indirect impact, particularly on inflation and monetary policy. Here the news is unambiguously good. Commodity prices are weak; the price of crude oil has fallen to around $14 a barrel; and even in the buoyant US there is no inflation in the prices of producer goods, partly because of the strong dollar.

Furthermore, bond yields are down to exceptionally low levels, with the floor set by the 1.6 per cent in Japan. German yields at 4.9 per cent and US ones at 5.6 per cent are exceptionally low as well. To the Japanese these rates must look too juicy to be true, especially when the yen is also weak. In this context, it is hardly surprising that more than 40 per cent of the private holdings of US government debt is owned by foreigners.

Behind the exceptionally low bond yields worldwide is not just weak inflation. Also important has been a dramatically expansionary monetary policy, particularly in Japan, where a frightened central bank is at last printing money with ferocious abandon.

Over the 12 months to March 20, the Bank of Japan expanded its balance sheet by the equivalent of 5.5 per cent of GDP - or $207bn at the rate of Y134 to the dollar. As the New York-based Grant's Interest Rate Observer of April 10 noted, the BoJ has created an amount equal to 44 per cent of the Federal Reserve's entire balance sheet in just one year.

Maybe the Bank should be doing still more. Even so, one can no longer criticise it for failing to do anything. In Japan credit growth remains constrained, however, by the financial weakness of both banks and their potential borrowers. The Bank is pushing on the proverbial string. But the impact of such an expansion is not narrowly limited to Japan. It has helped drive down the yen and push bond yields to very low levels, thereby encouraging Japanese investors to put their money into foreign assets.

Meanwhile, US credit growth is strong. Broad money ( M3 ) grew 9.9 per cent in the year to March. Underpinned by strong profits and strong equity bases, US banks do wish to lend - and are succeeding in doing so. The consequent monetary expansion is also having the expected effects on asset prices and investment.

Changes in stockmarket valuations are extraordinary: the S&P composite index for US stocks has risen 150 per cent since the end of 1994; the price-earnings ratio, at 28, is far higher than in the 1960s, the last comparable period of low inflation and strong growth; the dividend yield of around 1.4 per cent is risible by historical standards; and yet the present economic expansion is near the end of its seventh year.

If this market is fairly valued, the moon is made of green cheese. The risk is clear enough. It is even spelt out by the IMF: equity markets in many countries have recently risen to new highs and the US dollar has strengthened further, it says. With the current account deficit of the US expected to widen substantially this year, the risk of a reversal in attitude towards the dollar at some future stage is obvious.

"If world commodity prices were to recover at the same time and labour market pressures continued to push up wage growth, the Federal Reserve could face the need for a significant tightening of monetary conditions and both bond and stock markets might be subject to significant corrections. The strength of sterling points to similar concerns in the case of the UK." Amen to that.

It may cheer people in the west to believe the Asian crisis has little importance for them. They may believe its disinflationary impact will even prove a boon. In the US many may conclude it all proves that their economic model is the only one worthy of imitation. But never mistake a bubble for enduring economic triumph. The great bull market cannot last forever; what cannot last will not do so; and the higher the climb, the bigger the fall.

Contact Martin Wolf:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 07:50 - ID#248180)
Article by Martin Wolf - Finacial Times (FT) London
Sorry, I forgot to remove copyright from my previous post.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 25 1998 07:51 - ID#345321)
Chinese banks insolvent..................
Saturday April 25, 6:40 am Eastern Time

Chinese banks to give clearer picture of bad debt

BEIJING, April 25 ( Reuters ) - Chinese commercial banks, technically insolvent due to huge
non-performing loans to state industry, were given new instructions on Saturday on how to assess
their portfolios.

Their loans will now be graded as standard, special mention, substandard, doubtful or loss, the
official Xinhua news agency reported.

The new system devised by the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, would ``reveal
the actual value and risk degree of loans and reflect the quality of loans in a real, comprehensive and
dynamic way,'' Xinhua said.

Under the previous system, all loans overdue by just one day were categorised as non-performing.
Loans overdue by more than two years were termed doubtful. Loans were only regarded as
unrecoverable, or bad, in extreme cases, including bankruptcies.

Central bank governor Dai Xianglong said last week that although 20 percent of all bank loans were
non-performing, only 6-7 percent were bad.

``It doesn't mean that 20 percent of all loans cannot be collected,'' he said.

China's outstanding bank loans of 7.5 trillion yuan ( $903 billion ) are almost exactly equal to the size
of the country's Gross Domestic Product.

Some Western economists say as much of 30 percent of all commercial bank loans are
non-performing, and because of woeful corporate disclosure it is almost impossible to assess how
much will ever be repayed.

Over the years, the government has forced banks to prop up ailing state enterprises because its own
budget revenues cannot cover their losses. Beijing is now trying to cut bad debt, spurred by the
Asian financial crisis.

Xinhua said commercial banks would be required to classify all their loans at least every six months.

The central bank would regulate loan quality through spot inspections and on-the-spot monitoring at
least once each year, Xinhua said.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 25 1998 07:57 - ID#345321)
G7 slams Japan for not inflating like the West........
Saturday April 25, 2:51 am Eastern Time

Stimulus package buys time in Japan

By Jon Herskovitz

TOKYO, April 25 ( Reuters ) - Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and his battered
administration bought time at home with Friday's announcement of 16.65 trillion yen ( $127 billion )
economic rescue package.

But selling the deal to sceptical and powerful critics overseas may prove more difficult.

The record-setting package adopted at a late night cabinet meeting contains tax cuts, government
spending and low-cost loans to boost the beleaguered economy, and it won guarded praise from
vocal critics in Japan.

The national daily Yomiuri Shimbun, which had accused Hashimoto and his ruling Liberal
Democratic Party of foot dragging and waffling on economic policy, welcomed the package as a
good stopgap measure.

In a Saturday editorial, it said the package would ``attain the goals of buoying the economy and
reforming the fiscal structure.''

But the paper, which broke from its long-time support of the LDP's economic policy earlier this
week with front page criticism of Hashimoto's administration, said the pork barrel infrastructure
projects and a temporary tax cut called for in the plan will not change the underlying problems in the
Japanese economy.

"These are some of the problems in the package," it said.

The Yomiuri and other newspapers criticised the deal for not implementing permanent tax cuts,
having measures to bring corporate tax rates in line with other industrialised countries, or
distinguishing government construction bonds from deficit-covering bonds.

Overseas, the package received a lukewarm welcome from government officials and a cool reaction
from markets.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin called the measure a positive step, but said more had to be
done so Tokyo could pull other Asian economies back to prosperity.

``The whole world, including Japan's Asian neighbours, has a strong interest in seeing Japan succeed
in generating a strong domestic recovery that will contribute to recovery in Asia,'' Rubin said,
reinforcing the message given to Japanese officials at international meetings in Washington a week

The dollar held its strength against the yen, indicating markets view the measure as not doing enough
to end Japan's seven-year slump. One dollar was worth about 131.15 yen in late Friday trading after
being as low as 129.55 yen earlier in the day.

Japan's top financial diplomat, Eisuke Sakakibara, said on Friday the stimulus package would boost
the gross domestic product for fiscal year 1998 by two to three percentage points.

The United States -- urging Japan to help pull the rest of Asia out of its economic crisis -- had been
making increasingly harsh remarks about Tokyo's economic policies.

In an effort to sway U.S. policy makers, Japan will send some of its heaviest political hitters to the
United States next week during Japan's ``Golden Week'' national holidays that start in late April and
run through the first week in May.

Economic Planning Agency Minister Koji Omi and LDP policy chief Taku Yamasaki will likely go to
Washington next week. No official itinerary has been released.

LDP secretary-general Koichi Kato will visit New York and Washington from May 3 to 7 to meet
with business and government leaders.

The big showdown on the international stage comes May 15-17 at the G7 summit of major
industrialised nations in Birmingham, England.

At a meeting of G7 financial officials in London in February, Japan took a major tongue lashing from
Western nations for failing to boost growth. They told Japan it had to live up to its responsibility as
the world's second largest economy.

The stimulus plan contains four trillion yen ( $30.5 billion ) in temporary income tax cuts -- two trillion
each in 1998 and 1999 -- and 7.7 trillion yen ( $58.7 billion ) in public works spending.

It has four trillion yen ( $30.5 billion ) to boost the depressed real estate market and help small
businesses suffering under a credit crunch by troubled big banks.

In also will allow the cash-rich savings accounts operated by the post office to pump four trillion yen
( $30.5 billion ) into the financial markets.

The package did not specify which markets will receive the extra boost, but government funds are
often pumped into the stock market to support share prices.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 07:59 - ID#248180)
Euro & Dollar article by Vicki Barnett from FT London

EMU 
COMING OF EMU: Watch out, dollar
The euro could become an international currency with real clout more quickly than many people are expecting, argues Vicki Barnett
The introduction of the euro will transform Europe. But the creation of the world's second largest currency area will also have a huge impact on the global financial system. What is still unclear is whether the euro's influence will be primarily regional or whether it will come to rival the dollar as an international currency. The answer has important implications for both Europe and the US.

The US dollar has dominated the international finance system for nearly a century. Because of its extensive use by third parties, its importance in global financial transactions far exceeds the US's 27 per cent share of world output. The dollar accounts for 56 per cent of the world's foreign exchange reserves; 48 per cent of export invoicing; and participates in more than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions.

It is no accident that just one currency has gained pre-eminence. As the use of a currency rises, the market becomes more liquid and transaction costs fall, inducing even more people to use it. Once a currency becomes widely used, it is hard to dislodge. Neither the yen nor the D-Mark has made significant inroads into the dollar's dominance. So why should the euro be any different?

A big factor will be the sheer size of the euro area. The 11 prospective members have a combined gross domestic product of $6,300bn, against the US's $8,100bn. The euro area will be the world's largest importer and exporter, excluding intra-EU trade. And if, as planned, Emu is extended to all 15 EU countries, the euro area will become the world's largest economy.

A huge economy means a huge new capital market, with much lower transaction costs. And, unlike Japan, Europe's capital markets are fully open to foreign investors. The effect on liquidity will be dramatic. Avinash Persaud, head of currency research at J.P. Morgan, predicts that "transaction costs will collapse overnight". This will immediately make the euro more attractive as a vehicle currency for trade and foreign exchange.

The unification of the European currencies will also lead to economies of scale, making it more likely that foreign companies exporting to Europe will use the new currency to denominate their trade. Say, for example, a Japanese company exports 10 per cent of its output to Germany, 5 per cent to France and 5 per cent to Italy. Before Emu, the trade would probably be transacted in dollars because of the expense of dealing in several different currencies. But after Emu, with a fifth of its exports going to the euro area, it might well switch.

All this means the euro's use as a vehicle currency could quickly expand. In particular:

Effects could be felt first in those countries expected to join the next wave of Emu - the UK, Sweden, Denmark and Greece. Hillary Thompson, head of European strategy at NatWest, says many European companies will ask their UK suppliers to invoice them in euros. Several of NatWest's larger UK clients, which have European-oriented businesses, have been discussing plans to switch their operations entirely into euros.

Many suppliers in non-Emu countries could end up operating in euros to keep their customers happy - what Ms Thompson calls the "euro supply-chain effect". She believes the euro could become a quasi-domestic currency in the UK "within two to three years". This process is already beginning. Last week, British Steel became the second large UK company - ICI was the first - to announce that it would ask its suppliers to accept payment in euros.

The euro is also likely to be widely used in eastern Europe and, to a lesser extent, north Africa, where many local currencies are already pegged to European currencies.

It may start to be used in transactions between the euro area and countries outside Europe. Currency transactions between Japan and Europe, for example, are almost always intermediated through the dollar, while most exports from Asia to Europe are also invoiced in the US currency. As the euro gains momentum, this could change.

Many of the world's central banks may also reduce their high concentration of dollar holdings by switching to euros. Central banks want greater diversification in their currency portfolios, particularly after many made big losses when the exchange rate of the dollar plunged in the late 1980s.

The euro's greater liquidity and lower transaction costs ( compared with individual European currencies ) will be a big attraction: a prime consideration in choosing a reserve currency is its effectiveness for intervening in foreign exchange markets.

The denomination of a country's trade is also an important influence in the choice of currency. This means that any shift towards using the euro in trade will have a knock-on effect for the desirability of euro reserves.

Given these expected changes, most economists agree that, sooner or later, the euro will achieve international status. The question is when. The most common view is it will take some time. Martin Brookes, international economist at Goldman Sachs, thinks that, although a bipolar financial system is economically logical, "it will take a very long time before there is a big shift to the euro". And the International Monetary Fund, in last October's World Economic Outlook, said the new currency would only achieve international status "in the medium to longer-term".

The reasons most often cited for such caution are that the economic stability of the euro area has yet to be proven, while European capital markets are considerably smaller than their US counterparts.

But neither factor should have a decisive impact. On the first point, it is true that an international currency needs the support of a stable economy. True also that the euro area could suffer significant economic turbulence in the transition period. But these will be primarily structural problems concentrated in pockets of overheating or regions of persistently high unemployment.

Such problems will not matter to international holders of euros so long as the overall macroeconomic performance of the euro area is stable and inflation remains reasonably low. And, with the European Central Bank likely to play it very safe as it establishes its reputation, continuing low inflation seems probable.

The second argument against the euro's rapid rise - that European capital markets are too small - is more relevant. The European domestic securities market is only two-thirds of its US equivalent. And without a central government bond issuer, European fixed income markets will remain more fragmented than in the US. In this, the early entry into Emu of the UK, with its deep financial markets, will be crucial.

There is a counter view to the idea that the euro will take a long time to mature. Some economists suggest the sudden fall in transaction costs will lead to the rapid adoption of the euro worldwide. "The euro will become an international currency within a matter of months, not years," says Mr Persaud of J.P. Morgan.

Academics Richard Portes and Hlne Rey, in a paper recently published by London's Centre for Economic Policy Research*, share this view. They suggest that the shock Emu will bring to the international financial system "is likely to be substantial and relatively sudden".

The internationalisation of a currency is not just a status symbol. It has significant economic and political implications. First, the issuer of such a currency gains a direct economic benefit in the form of seigniorage: in exchange for almost costless notes, the issuer receives real resources - net imports. A second benefit is the greater liquidity in the bond markets that results from internationalisation: this lowers yields, cutting the costs of borrowing for both governments and companies.

A rapid rise in demand for the euro would also affect the euro exchange rate. Unless it were offset by an equally rapid rise in the amount of euro assets issued, it would exert a powerful upward influence.

The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro will become the most important in the world. But the US and the EU, being relatively closed economies, are unlikely actively to manage their exchange rates. This combination of factors has led Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, to warn that a "quantum leap in transalantic co-operation" will be needed to avoid a damaging increase in exchange rate volatility**.

So far, American policymakers seem unconcerned at the potential challenger to their currency's dominance. "The dollar will remain the primary reserve currency for the foreseeable future," Larry Summers, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in a speech last year. "We expect the impact of the euro on the monetary system to be quite limited initially and to occur only gradually".

Mr Summers and the rest of the US establishment, it seems, may be in for a surprise.

* The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency by Richard Portes and Hlne Rey, in EMU: Prospects and Challanges for the Euro", CEPR April 1998

** The Dollar and the Euro by C Fred Bergsten, Foreign Affairs Volume 76 no 4

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:01 - ID#345321)
News on Chinese politics - The chinese are our "friends"......
Saturday April 25, 12:34 am Eastern Time

Chinese-American activist said missing in Beijing

WASHINGTON, April 23 ( Reuters ) - A Chinese-American democracy activist disappeared on
arrival at Beijing airport on Thursday and a fellow activist based in Canada said he assumed the
Chinese authorities had detained him.

Frank Woo, a U.S. citizen returning to China after 17 years in the United States, left Detroit on
Wednesday aboard a Northwest Airlines plane bound for Beijing but was nowhere to be found
when the plane arrived, said Michael To, chairman of the Federation for a Democratic China.

Woo, a veteran of the student unrest at Beijing University in the late 1970s, is chairman of the
Chinese Alliance for Democracy. A biologist, he lives in Lexington, Kentucky.

``Dr. Frank Woo ... is currently being detained by Chinese authorities in Beijing. Friends and
relatives are extremely concerned for Dr. Woo's safety,'' To said in a statement sent from Ottawa.

To said that when officers of his organization returned to China, they usually faced delays on arrival.
In one case two years ago an activist was repatriated but about six months ago another managed to
enter China after two days in detention.

``With President Bill Clinton to visit China in June, they may not do anything drastic. But we have to
be very vigilant,'' he told Reuters by telephone.

He said he was trying to contact the U.S. embassy in Beijing while human rights organizations in
New York had spoken about Woo's disappearance to the U.S. State Department.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:12 - ID#426220)
$10,000 US Gold Certificate Bill

Donald el al: For those interested in the US history of the largest denomination currency bills of legal tender, you may see a full-color reproduction of the $10,000 bill at URL below. Once there scroll to the bottom of the page.

It is necessary to delete the space in the URL just before the word "-eagle" before pasting it to your Internet locator:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:14 - ID#26793)
@Vronsky, Aurator
Let me respond to your search for the derivation of the slang word "fin" to denote a $5 bill. An American woodsman visiting in Quebec observed two "irrationally exuberant" woodsman cutting a log on a sawbuck. They worked so fast that they cut clean through the log and before they could stop they had cut the sawbuck in half. They used the French word "fin" to denote the condition of the sawbuck. Not understanding French, the American thought that the word "fin" meant a half a sawbuck and the word stuck. ( grin thing )

Actually, I seem to recall that the word was used because of the type font used for the numeral five on the early notes. It was quite ornate and the top section looked like a dorsal fin and the bottom half like the body of a whale.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:33 - ID#410114)
Ayn Rand radio show
Open Loop

there is an Objectivist ( Ayn Rand ideas ) radio show broadcast over the internet at 1100 Los Angeles California time every Sunday. the Show lasts two hours.

The web address is:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:42 - ID#288369)
@1. I will complete my acquisition of 50,000 shares of Drooy.......
2. I will go to sleep for two years
3. I will sell my Drooy shares
4. I will enter into a 100-year lease with the Bahamian gov't for a small cay adjacent to Green Turtle Cay
5. I will thank Lord John Disney and vronsky with each sip of my coconut milk and rum island special.
6. I will vaguely remember this chart.... ( as always, you must "fix" this url )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:43 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:47 - ID#426220)

Hermano John Disney ( a.k.a. the Stock Seer of South Africa )

"No guaratees but
1. Deeps has little overhead volume to 6
2. Harmony should be fairly clear to 6.75
3. Rangy breaks out at $1 5/8 and is clear to $2 7/8

Thats my story and Im sticking to it."


(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:48 - ID#288369)
@teddO.....a splash of cold........
Atlantic water to my face would be good for me right Morning Club in session.....cheers....gulp! ( c0ffee )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:49 - ID#410114)
Ayn Rand web site
Open Loop

Here is an Ayn Rand web site:

At this site you can find links to books, articles etc. They also have good articles on gold. There is also the complete set of artilces written by Greenspan. Some of these are on gold and one is on spying!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:51 - ID#285121)
I love your plan STUDIO !
: )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:52 - ID#347447)
If you want a good introductory book to financial astrology, get "Financial Astrology" by LCdr. David Williams ( Ret ) . Published by American Federation of Astrologers, PO box 22040 6535 South RuralRoad, Tempe Arizona 85282 last I looked.
ISBN Number 0-86690-045-4
Library Congress# 82-73126

The gold chart going back to the 1300's is worth the price of the book.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:57 - ID#330175)
STUDio.R......................& cold Atlantic water also sittin here ( duh ) drinkin me coffee and pondering ( again duh ) the day ahead ( could a wee-bit of rum be in the picture ( huh? ) ...had more than enuf of this packing-cleaning crap!...but first the daily ( ugh ) -walk has ta happen,yes?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 08:59 - ID#330175)
Might even 'burn one'-----------
for Sheller~~~~~

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:00 - ID#288369)
From the "minds" of Solomon, eh? Honestly, I don't expect to have an opportunity equal to this occur during the remainder of my "working" career. I am thankful and motivated. Be there or be ( :- (

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:04 - ID#288369)
@teddO........ruuuumduuuumb.......yo! (over here!).........
You've got me walkin' too...3 miles in 35 min...jogging bums my ankle. At our age, we ain't got that many choices...EXERCISE, BUGS!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:07 - ID#347447)
My crystal ball
I pose as an astrologer to throw people off the real trail. My real ace in the hole is my crystal ball - the Dow Utility averages. They appear to be hitting tremendous resistance in the 290's and are backing away right quick. If the utes have topped, the rest of the stock market is not far from the end of its rope. The long awaited stock bear and puncturing of this bubble will not come until interest rates rise. Period. A look at the longterm Bond chart shows that Deflation has been, as Prometheus would put it, the truly LAST battle. Now that voices are being raised in warning about it, I feel it is time to expect a renwed uptrend in rates is imminent. Since 1980 interest sensitives have been rising with rates declining. The long bond rates have put in a 5 wave decline, and even if there is more to come, a retracement of some of that decline in an abc correction, at the very least, would back rates up to stress line resistance on the chart at around 8 - 8 3/4% by 2000. This would be a bottom for stocks, and a true "buying opportunity" for the general list. If the utes are turning down for sure here, after some topping, and perhaps even further ragged advance in the general market, the bear will emerge along with rising rates. If rates break their floor, and the recent weakness in the utes is merely a return move from a break to new highs, then we will see 4 1/2% and the deflation scenario will be in its final throes. But either way, the bulk of the deflationary wave is behind us. The reflation has been going on since 1992. It just has to overtake the trough in the deflationary wave, which we are working through now. I don't think the transition and asset inversion to come will be crashlike. It may come slowly at first, and the pattern of advance described by the embryonic gold bull will be a key, as will the depth and ferocity of the Utility average decline that may have started a few days ago.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:12 - ID#330175) got that right-------------
we don't have many choices left,eh!....bout time fer the old glue-factory,huh~~~~~Guess there's always Dr.K-----------ho3w bout dem Yanks ( holy cow )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:14 - ID#330175)
@ how'd THAT 3 get in there???-----stoopid,eh
Time fer the walk~~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:19 - ID#341189)
"fin" is Yiddish for "five".

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:36 - ID#266105)

Agree on the Utilities having an uncanny leading nose
for interest rates and that which follows. It's a brave new
regulatory world for the companies comprising the utility index
particularly the electrics but the relationship yet holds in
my uncharted, seat-of-the-pants recollection until proven
otherwise. They nicely forecast the '94 interest rate shock
and ensuing debacles ( Askin Capital, Orange County, some
'ultrasafe' government 'bond' funds, etc ) .

(Sat Apr 25 1998 09:38 - ID#288155)
Thoughts on inflation, deflation, price stability and other government wonders...
One gets VERY confused when the above terms are associated with a commodity whose price is set every second of every day in a world 24-hour market. A commodity whose price is something of a 'popularity contest', as it has no intrinsic value, and its "use" is a function of
world opinion...

Can one inflate corn [unless, of course, it is popping corn {:- ) ]? Deflate oil? If we take a standard of measurement of corn, or oil, i.e., a bushel or a barrel, we might say that the price of the commodity, in that particular measure, has risen, or fallen or remained the same.

One wonders if the terms inflation, deflation are not relics from a gold standard past, sturdy skeletons of stability long dead.

Perhaps coffee will help...{:- ) )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 10:04 - ID#31876)
Colin Seymour Has THOUGHTS on Swiss Gold Sales --

(Sat Apr 25 1998 10:22 - ID#257136)
aurophile re:00:28
As a native of the great tiera of which you speak, my curiosity impels me to enquire as to what part you actually reside in.
Not to be specific, but acerca de four corners?
Llano Estacado? Nuevo Mejico,
acerca de las guahatollas, o en un ciudad or pueblo?

'nuf of thet furrin tok, bak ta inglch!

Raised in Phoenix in winters and on family ranches in N.W. Colorado. Near El Rio Blanco in summers.

Ah well, respond if so inclined. The weather here in the oOuachitas of Arkansas ia kinda like that of the great basin today.It made me kinda lonesome for the High Country.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 10:40 - ID#31868)
Aurator - 3:59
Now I know why I spend too much time in my room...nobody told me...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 10:51 - ID#31876)
The Wall Street Bulls Propaganda Machine In High Gear --

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:02 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R -8:42
When you get there, look for the Golden Conch flying mightilybe very, very careful upon the first visit, until the children know you are a friend...they have been trained better than Ghurkas and need less oxygen

Hold your hand out, palm up, gold coin in clear viewafter they have summed you up and down and back againranging in age from 2 to 14 they are quick to judgementfierce

Let the party beginbarrels of rum lay in waiting, aging just for the occasion

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:05 - ID#31876)
If Only A TINY Bit Moves To Precious Metals!!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:07 - ID#288369)
Together we will live long and famously, and our children will bring to us this prosperity. We wait now.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:11 - ID#31868)
It is a plan...done...gulp to ya...namaste'

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:12 - ID#288369)
By my word, sir! ( gulp )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:15 - ID#411112)
John Disney,You thought I'd miss the little dig,update on us here in the first world,it is a fine

warm ,clear morning in the Valley of the Sun,don't do breakfast,so no need for maid service,our maids are not live ins here,for us poor folk anyway....I to have a few choices I could make watch TV 168 channels,excluding 50 pay per view,surf the net on my big screen TV and watch TV at the same time......powered by a 95Kbps modem,I may go to Vegas for a little fun it is an hour you know from there I could watch and play every race on the planet.....I usually only back greys.......a buddy called last nite to see if I wanted to go skiing today in the is 1 1/2 hours away....we have these short hop jets here in the first world,then again I might just head off to Laguna Beach California for a braai with all my buddies from SA,.....I have one for you : )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:25 - ID#57232)
North Korea Crisis not just food - water too!
All: This looks more and more to me like North Korea will collapse.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:30 - ID#266105)
@studioR/singing brakeman/blue yodeler

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:38 - ID#57232)
Stuff on Tides and the Markets; Antony Sutton;Chores becon
Aurophile: Can you tell me the name of the fellow from Lucent that wrote the piece that you quoted, and anything more you have about him? I would like to talk to him. I have been following the same thought process, but still do not have a clear picture regarding the tide -- electric field correlation. Sounds very much like Frank Brown's work.

aurator, All: The A. Sutton in Pheonix Arizona never called back, so I am currently at a dead end -- any other ideas regarding how to reach him?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:39 - ID#28593)
It is called PLUNDER...
 Economic Affairs from Book of the Year ( 1998 )
The world economy grew by 4% in 1996 and was expected by the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to grow
slightly faster in 1997. Despite the financial and economic crisis in
Asia, a reasonably rapid pace looked sustainable into the next
decade, as the inflation rate in most countries was low or declining...

QUESTION: Where there is no stable standard of measure, how does one ascertain that the inflation rate in most countries was low or declining? The baht falls 40%, and it is to be called inflation? Or is it to be called, deflation? As measured against what? In what time frame? In what time zone? Where is the STANDARD? The ruler is not a straight edge, but rather a double-helix with mysterious and wondrous encoding known to whom?

Ponder Point: If the referee refuses to reveal the rules of the game, how does one distinguish a good call from a bad call?

This is the intellectual weapon of plunder--modern style...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:42 - ID#28593)
The hoax...
"We should not be misled by the docility of the German and Japanese governments in playing faultlessly their preassigned role in the farce. They have absorbed losses counted in trillions, without ever saying "ouch". The Japanese started accumulating irredeemale paper when it cost them 360 yens to buy one dollar -- as opposed to the 1995 low of 78 yens to the dollar. The corresponding figure for the Germans is 4 1/2 marks to the dollar initially -- as opposed to the 1995 low of 1 1/3 marks to the dollar."

(Sat Apr 25 1998 11:59 - ID#31868)
Your words are forged daily in the foundry of truthgold has value, your thoughts worth far moregulp to yathe anvil upon which your heart beats is considered to be truly remarkable by all who visit Kitco

Never give in, your thoughts are growing, blossomingthe good flowers take time to opengulpto you and yours the Best of WishesGenies dream of serving you


(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:04 - ID#266105)
@the other BMW-biking Jimmy Rogers bearish on gold-- year old

Yes, gold will eventually establish a bottom. Most likely that will
be when the central banksthe 800-pound gorillas in the gold
market complete their sales. Only then will the shrewd
investor want to consider moving in.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:07 - ID#263379)
Leland - Numbers to think about!
Leland posted @ 11:25 that there is about 450 billion in institutional money markert funds. Well, If the Japanese are unloading some of that 200+ billion in T-Bills that represents a mighty portion ( % ) of the institutional funds money. Big IMPACT and big BUCKS! This does not count the Japanese unknown amount ( institutions, other ) and the rest of the world selling as well as others who will sell in concert with the Japanese. Just something to bounce around! For the Analysts out there, is this statement on track, and what's the anticipated impact?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:17 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the post & chart. The comments by Alice Rivlin at the IMF conference and the obvious division between the pro-IMF and pro-BIS/gold factions in the USG are outside indicators that there is unlikely to be government action to interfere with the direction of the gold market.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:19 - ID#31868)
have to go...
some fella outside putting up a fence...going to get beer, big fence, lots of beer...and remember, don't be nice to Sheller, he will get used to it!!!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:23 - ID#384350)
yuan devaluation?
Thursday's International Herald Tribune reports that black market currency exchangers in China have increased the exchange rate of HK dollars for yuan. A reluctance to hold yuan could spell trouble and may indicate a rate devaluation.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:26 - ID#153102)
@Boat People
Your boat's papers declare and define what nation's law govern on your boat. Going to sea makes you no more than a land person on the water.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:36 - ID#28594)
Antal E. Fekete--"Whither Gold?"
"That we have lost the facility to reduce the world's total indebtedness without resorting to default or monetary depreciation becomes clear at once if we consider the fact that a debt of x dollars can no longer be liquidated....substituting one debtor for another is not the same as liquidating the date. The very notion of 'debt maturity' has lost all resonable meaning previously attached to it. At maturity the creditor is coerced into extending his original credit plus accrued interest in the form of new credits, usually on inferior terms.

Gold cannot be wishd away from the credit system. It is there, like it or not. Gold is the only conceivable standard of borrowing. The lowest rate of interest is available for bold-bonded debt -- an for no other. Loans payable in irredeemable currency carry progrerssively higher rates of interest. How high they go depends on public fear of currency depreciation.

Paradoxically, golds importance is growing while its dispersal from official hoards and the mines continues apace. Dispersed gold represents latent power, far greater in scope than its nominal market value, as sound credit can be built only upon a gold base. When the dispersal of gold reaches a certain threshold ( nobody knows where exactly this threshold is ) , a metamorphosis of money will take place. Gold will reclaim its throne as constitutional monarch in the monetary and credit system of the world.

Unfortunately, the transition may not be trouble-free. Procrastination in overdue monetary reform brings with it the danger of a credit collapse -- similar to that experienced under the Great Depression of 1929-39, causing widespread economic pain in the world. Educating public opinion to look at gold as a gift of Prometheus, rather than Pandoras box, after 75 years of vicious chrysophobic agitation and propaganda, presents us with a formidable task. Yet we must do what we can to disseminate the truth about gold.
Antal E., Fekete
Whither Gold?
Winner of the 1996 International Currency Prize

Welll worth a read!

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:42 - ID#24135)
Dont you ever SLEEP
For Robnoel..
It sounds too hectic for me

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:47 - ID#190411)
Your "QUETSTION"s today are especially thought provoking.
My thanks to you for being the kid pointing at Emperor's new outfit.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:49 - ID#190411)
Goo-brain spelling.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 12:55 - ID#411112)
John Disney;What...getting a little long in the tooth are we,only know i would kill
for a piece a fresh biltong,a cold Lion Laager,some boereworse on the braai with pup watching the Rothmans July .....and yes to remember Trevor Denman call them down the straight.......AND DOWN THE STRECTH THEY COME AND THE BIG GREY HAS A COMMANDING LEAD AT 50 to 1.......thanks for the memorys John

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:00 - ID#31876)
SDRer_A -- Quotes From Antal E. Fekete, Buffett's Father, et al.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:02 - ID#31876)
It Pays to Re-check URL's

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:04 - ID#384350)
mozel, boat people
That's why many boats are registered under Greek or Liberian flags.

I liken a passport to a type of branding. It shows who owns you. Is it better to be owned by a weak country that doesn't care what its citizens do beyond its shores, or by a strong, powerful country that keeps its citizens ( slaves ) on a tight leash?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:04 - ID#153102)
Enjoyed the post about the moon, the ionosphere, and that tingling on top of my head just before lightning strikes. You can never overestimate the importance of wearing a good hat ( with a lead or aluminum foil liner ??? ) , especially on a sunny day at full moon time.

I hope you will keep reporting on this electric current theory of emotion. Once I real about elective affinities, I knew there was truth in the concept. I foresee a Lucent love measuring chamber coming on market to replace daisy petals as the true love test apparatus.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:06 - ID#266105)

'Silence is complicity.'-- actually a Greenpeace motto.
Perhaps worthy of expropriation for Goldpeace....?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:06 - ID#340459)
The Swiss announcement put a crimp on the emerging Gold Bull, will take few days to
lose impact and will POG will go up again, I think and hope....

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:07 - ID#153102)
@Gianni Good thought. Liberia. Do you know the history ?
Founded to be the home for Africans to repatriate to from the New World.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:22 - ID#26793)
@Gianni Dioro
You get my vote for most inportant post of the day with that gem find about the slide of the Chinese yuan on the black market.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:23 - ID#339274)
To all :Info gathered whenever Saturn enters an earth sign ( Virg,
Taurus and Capricorn } it has a debilitating effect on the
speculative aspect of the market ( see '29 and 69 ) .
Interesting it can have something to do with shortages at the
tail end of this aspect.
To use it as a turning point for low priced /High priced stock
valuation ratio is probably more valuable than anything
else.This factor is already happening.June 9 ,Saturn enters
Taurus and will stay until October 25 and to reenter March '99.
To give a summation of the foregoing it is advisable to stay long
the senior stocks who pay dividend and short the underfinanced
ones if one wants to stay in stock.Everything comes with a caveat
do your own due diligence.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:26 - ID#251268)
EMU, picked up
story on reuters next week Italy and Belg. to anounce some
restructureing of debt in meetings 5-1 5-2~~~~Ideas ?
EB ? tried that brew yet?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:31 - ID#288369)
Thanks for the liner notes by Dylan....a print! Back to the bed...No! the flower beds.....Is there anything more futile ( or stupid ) than trying to clean flower beds in a 25 mph wind? metabolites of rum leaking from my pores........whew!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:41 - ID#230244)

If you had invested $2000.00 ( 1140.00 U.S. ) in the initial public offering of FRANCO NEVADA TSE FN 15 years ago, you'd be a millionaire and more today.Each $1000.00 investments is now worth $526.000- and that doesn't include what you'd get from sister company EURO-NEVADA which was spun off to Franco-Nevada shareholders as a dividend 10 years ago.

Euro TSE EN.

INTERESTING STATEMENT in same paper frpm Donald Coxe. Chairman of Harris Investment Management INc. of Chicago."Apart from the continuing crises for banks in Asia, most of the big japanese banks are getting government bailout as is the biggest state-owned bank in France. When the next recession hits, it will have deflationary power not seen for tahan 60 years, and will hammer global bank loan ortfolios with hurricane force. Gold will look very lustrous when so much else is tarnished."

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:44 - ID#266105)

Not a bad anthology. After a week's visit from the
departed northern snowbird in-laws we're 'healing.'
Great folks, younger than their years, swing through
every year when the cherry tree has blossomed and
rains trailing off. Me & him put each other to bed
reasonably early. No sense trying to keep up with
his & mine unless one enjoys looking at the floor
under the table.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:46 - ID#238295)
consolidation ahead?
In his latest gold market review Captain Bill points out that past gold stock bulls generally experienced consolidation/correction phases during the May/June period before blasting off again in the summer. Don't see why this gold bull should be any different.

My take is that this cyclical gold bull is only half done. I am looking for bullion to reach $340-350 and the XAU about 120 by late summer after consolidating for a month or two.

But if I am correct that this cyclical gold bull is merely the first phase of a new secular gold bull, we should see much higher prices a few years down the pike after a relatively mild gold bear during late 1998/early 1999.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:47 - ID#409246)
access to gold charts

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:47 - ID#409246)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:47 - ID#384350)
mozel, Liberia
I have a few notions about Liberia. I know that many boats from all over the world are registered in Liberia as a "flag of convenience", which results in little regulation and little or no tax. I also think I read that Liberia offers diplomatic passports, for a sizable donation. I suppose it might be difficult to travel on one of these if you are not black.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 13:48 - ID#409246)
access to charts
I can no longer access charts and lease rates. Is this site down or has the URL been changed

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:05 - ID#28594)
Nothing new under the....
Latin Monetary Union, Foundation Treaty signed in 1865-- ( France, Belgim, Switzerland, Italy followed by Greece and Bulgaria ( ! ) ...extending, finally, to 18 countries...

Officially ( and really ) a gold standard developed... in the Latin Monetary Union, the quantities of gold and silver Union coins that member countries could mint was unlimited. Regardless of the quantities minted, the coins were legal tender across the union.

There was no single currency like the Euro. Countries maintained their national currencies ( coins ) , but these were at parity with each other. ...the coup de grace was delivered by the unprecedented financing needs brought on by the First World War.

and additionally: As the LMU was being formed, in 1867, an International Monetary Conference was convened. Twenty countries participated and discussed the introduction of a global currency. They decided to adopt the gold ( British, USA ) standard and to allow for a phase in transitory period. They agreed to use three major hard currencies but to equatre their gold content so that they would be completely interchangeable. Nothing came out of it -- but this plan was a lot more sensible than the LMU. Humanity seems to select the right course only after it tried all the wrong ones.
Deja V-uro by Dr. Sam Vaknin Thanks for the inSITE {:- )

2BR02B@Gold.peace Oh, I LIKE it!

Erle@Clothes.R.Us Thank you. Ive enjoyed some deft points from your hand--for which my thanks to you, Bart and Kitco. Living in a world of lies, as we all do, Kitco becomes a VERY important intellectual oasis! {:- )

Off to brunch in the spring sunshine! bbl

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:15 - ID#335190)
Paradigm From California @ "TRUTH" "Trust" "Honour" is to hold ("In Hand") Gold ("Value")
Paradigm from California  1978-1995 by Neil Robert Miller. All rights Reserved

This has been a thirty year project, a life's work, so to speak, in the old, 19th century sense. The first ten, 1960's and 70's, were purely research, the middle ten, 1970's and 80's, involved discovery and writing up this work-out-well-all-around paradigm, and the most recent ten years, 1980's and 90's, has involved attempting to disseminate the work intact, while advancing it, and especially, while attempting to protect it from distorted "bleeds" into the reactionary framework.

Neil Miller/San Francisco/October 26, 1995

Bear this in mind:

The primary difference
between the Democratic Party
and the Republican Party, that is,

between the liberals/Democrats/communists
and the conservatives/Republicans/nazis;

the real difference is this:

The Republicans, the rightists, the satanists,
are very very sure that they are supposed to lie,
Thus they project their conscious and deliberate lying
with tremendous, even astounding appearance of certainty,
and appear very sure of themselves.

The Democrats, the leftists, the feminine types, on the other hand,
are not so sure that you are supposed to lie in the first place,
so when they do it, they are not that sure of themselves in that .....behavior,and are therefore much more likely to get caught.

Integrity = Super-Loser
Lie and get caught = Loser
Lie and don't get caught = Jackpot

To recap:

A. "The-Way-Things-Are-Supposed-To-Be":
B. "What-Has-Gone-Wrong":
The "Deliberately-Misreport-Perceptions" System.

Finally, there is the matter of:
C. "How-To-Put-Things-Right":

One should encourage and enable others to accurately figure out whether or not any person is deliberately and consciously misreporting their own perceptions.

What has happened in the past is set forever and cannot change. Naturally, you can discover new things about what has happened in the past and one can speak or write untruthfully about what happened in the past, but the actual events themselves can never be changed.

The truth is singular, absolute, is the same for everyone, and never changes, that is, is constant for all time.

2a. ) ..Commonly Stated Ideas
There is no such thing as absolute truth; what is called truth is really just someone's perception, different for each person.
[Not Accurate]

Most people do not know that there is a difference between the appearance of truth and the truth itself.

3a ) ...Commonly Stated Ideas
There is no difference between the appearance of truth and the truth.
[Not Accurate]

Truth is an entirely separate entity from the appearance of or the perception of truth. That which is true is a concrete entity which never changes and is the same for everyone whereas the perception of truth can vary widely. The importance and absoluteness of the distinction must not be underestimated, else life becomes thin, flat, tortuous and the species perishes.

4a ) ...Commonly Stated Ideas
Truth is a 'philosophical' concept ( rather than a clearly defined and concrete one ) and is really just whatever is perceived; nothing is really true except what a person thinks is true or can get others to believe.
[Not Accurate]

FWIW Take Care

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:22 - ID#339274)
Turning points
FWIW.Old Gold you can take note the dates that might be of import
The week of August 23 a top ,Nov21 a sharp bear rally
in goldstocks lasting 2 weeks at the most.
The bottom of goldstocks probably the end of February 99.
The physical gold should rise in value vis a vis other

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:25 - ID#339274)
spelling error
asstes should read assets.sorry for the sloppiness : )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:43 - ID#238295)
Cyclist: Thanks for those dates!

Schippi: Noticed that both Fidelity gold funds lagged last week, with FSAGX doing especially badly. Do you perhaps know why?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:47 - ID#255267)
@JD & Mike
J Disney: I'll be riding the DROOY rail for a while
Mike Sheller: I order a copy and give you my take

Robnoel: How far are you from 56th & Shea?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:53 - ID#377211)
PART I: Swiss SNB Herr Hans Meyer: Will Counter Any Undue Franc Strength
This Swiss announcement, let's face it, is no longer bearish but very bearish and here is why ( IMHO.... comments added )

Dow Jones Newswires 4/24/98

BERN -- The Swiss National Bank will counter any undue rise in the Swiss
franc, the central bank's president said Friday. ( READ: HOUSTON!... WE HAVE A PROBLEM!... OUR SWISS FRANC IS TOO GOLDEN! )
A key factor in monetary policy will be 'to counter any appreciation of the Swiss franc which is undesirable for economic development,' Hans Meyer said in a prepared speech to the central bank's annual general shareholders meeting. ( READ: WE ARE SCARED THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE COMPLETELY NCOMPETITIVE IN THIS UNITED EUROPE... BECAUSE WE ARE TOO WEALTHY...HEY! GIVE MORE TO THE NEEDY AFRICANS! )
Uncertainties ahead of European economic and monetary union have contributed to the franc's strength early this year, Meyer said. ( READ:... IN FACT, WE THE SWISS HAVE WAY TOO MUCH GOLD!... )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 14:55 - ID#377211)
PART 2: Swiss SNB Herr Hans Meyer: Will Counter Any Undue Franc Strength
Part 2: I made a mistake before... this is very BULLISH to me... not bearish...

The Asian crisis should pose 'no serious danger to economic developments in Switzerland,' Meyer said. Although growth of Swiss exports to East Asia has slowed markedly, the importance of those countries for Switzerland's economy isn't crucial, he said. ( READ: HEY! WHO CARES ABOUT ASIA... WE DON'T... BUT WE CARE, IN SWITZERLAND, ABOUT ADJACENT, BORDERING COUNTRIES WHO WILL BE SURROUNDING US... USING THEIR RELATIVELY WEAK EMUs... )
The major effect of the Asian crisis so far has been 'a further appreciation of the Swiss franc,' Meyer noted. ( NO IT DID NOT: THEY DEVALUATED AND THE SWISS FRANC KEPT ITS WORTH BECAUSE OF BIG TIME GOLD BACKING ) .
The draft of the new article severs the legal link between the Swiss franc and gold - 'a tie that in actual practice has long since lost its relevance,' Meyer said. ( OH! YES!... WHY IS THAT TIE IRRELEVANT?. HANS: YOU JUST SPILLED THE BEANS... IT IS NOT THE SWISS FACTORY WORKERS THAT ARE SO GREAT!... IT IS JUST BECAUSE YOU SWISS HAVE WAY TOO MUCH OF THAT VALUABLE GOLD!...JUST FACE IT! AND PLEEEAASE TELL US 'WHEN' THIS TIE BECAME IRRELEVANT? )
Around half of the SNB's gold reserves of around 2,600 tons will no
These Swiss comments are the most bullish comments for gold I have seen. They don't want gold any longer. Well... let's have it. Just get physical.
Good luck to all.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:10 - ID#377211)
..."let's get physical"... wait a minute!
I said in the last post: "These Swiss comments are the most bullish comments for gold I have seen. They don't want gold any longer. Well... let's have it. Just get physical."...

Well!... Wait a minute! Don't get physical too fast!... We have about 8100 tons of gold in the USA reserves... at one ounce = 31.104 grams... mmmhhh! We have therefore about 263 millions ounces stored at Fort Knox.... good.... that is about one ounce per person.... While the Swiss have about 2600 tons of gold stashed in their coffers... mmmmhhhh! with about 7.5 million inhabitants.... the Swiss are real well off, mesays... about 11 ounces per persons in Switzerland... mmmhhh! About 3150 $ worth of gold per inhabitants... lucky Swiss... In the US, we have about $ 20000 national debt/inhabitants here ...
Wait a minute! Don't get physical too fast... there will not be enough gold! Zut alors!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:16 - ID#258129)
About Dow/Gold price correlation
It is often, that negative correlation between Dow and Gold assumed as well known fact - Dow up - Gold down, Dow down - Gold up. In fact it is not always like this. I already posted about it last year. I attach here a chart for the period from Jan 1996 till now. Gold and Dow values are normalized - i.e. maximum value for given period for both Dow and Gold is taken as 1 and plotted at the left vertical axes, while right vertical axes gives value of correlation coefficient between Dow and Gold for 60 trading days period. Correlation curve is close enough to sinusoid with segments of positive and negative correlation. At present time we are close to the top of positive correlation segment. That means, that Dow and Gold are likely to move in same direction in coming days - IMHO

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:18 - ID#250121)
Sutton is too common a name to try any more "telephone book" searches. I suggest you contact his last publisher. You might have to contact Flatland Books
and ask them who published "The Federal Reserve Conspiracy". You may be suprised at the help you receive if you pitch it right.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:24 - ID#240120)
@Gianni Dioro
Thank you very much for the great URL that you posted in your 12:23.

Incase anyone missed it here it is again:

This is yet more evidence of THE DESTRUCTION OF PAPER CURRENCIES that is going on RIGHT NOW.

G o G o l d

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:25 - ID#266105)
@doppler effect

It is encouraging that the chartists find the price action poking up into favorable territory. With annualized gains in positions established in the last eight weeks of 870%, 1,615% and 17,801% ( no typos ) -- one is prone to concur that the train could be leaving the station and maybe time to get on boooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.....................

Hey Ray, dunno about bait-checking and bobber watching but heard tell that down there in bayou country there's that two-handed catfish rasslin' technique applicable to overhanging stream banks. Up here in
the NW them's healthy trout treading in the backwater and lemme tell ya, they're slippery buggers.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:29 - ID#250121)
F*, the unpronounceable. I can now pronounce you.

Like many highly intelligent focussed souls you can annoy the sh!t out of us mere mortals. Don't you dare F* Koff? OK arfole? Peace brother.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:46 - ID#307271)
Magnificent Chart my man! As you concluded, Gold will continue upward in the following days ( next week ) . Though gold stocks were down late Friday, we should see a bounce of the XAU at about 89.5 Monday afternoon. Also, quite a lot of resistence was seen last week in some of the minors such as ALTA which was up 2.5% Friday. If there is any way, I would love to reproduce and use this type of chart. Can you help me?

Go Gold!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:49 - ID#26793)
Grim picture is painted for Japan

(Sat Apr 25 1998 15:58 - ID#26793)
Hong Kong retail sales down 18%

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:07 - ID#26793)
Switzerland knowingly requested and received Nazi gold it knew had been stolen.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:13 - ID#26793)
Gold and gold mining news and comment from Australia

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:30 - ID#317193)
Swiss gold-Where is it???????
Where is all the Swiss Gold???? Has the Swiss central government leased out a large portion of the countys gold?

Think long and hard. Any student of Swiss affairs knows that the central government is very weak and the Swiss people will never vote to sell their gold. So whats up? Well, demand for gold over the last ten to fifteen years is whats up. Could it be that unknown to the Swiss populace the government has done the unthinkable-leased out their gold?

This tired old rumor of Swiss gold sales in the future has a purpose. It can only be to try to cover a dire situation that is hidden from view. Either further gold sales between CBs are needed for the EURO or the gold is already gone and can not be returned. Since the Swiss are not playing the EURO game it must be that they have already leased out the gold and, since there is not enough gold available to be returned, they must orchestrate a SALE. Leased gold is SOLD- the only way to return the gold is if the price is falling and can be bought by the bullion bank that originally leased the gold, assuming that the supply exists. Well folks, what if the supply does not exists? Then, if youre the Swiss, you have to get the people to authorize a SALE. Good luck, will not happen!

This announcement is simply a reflection of the crisis that presently exists. Gold is in short supply. It must be or this game would not be going on at this time.

Buy physical. The game is unfolding before your eyes. Comex stocks at historically low levels. Gold bullion coins in short supply. Delivery of Comex gold takes forever. Open your minds eye. Think. Were is all this worthless gold. ANSWER: GONE.

Good trading folks! Place your bets. If youre lucky gold will be down on Monday and, maybe, Tuesday. Set your stops just in case. It is time. IMHO Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:32 - ID#342315)
Pu'ukani re your 18:56 on 4/24
I missed this yesterday. Got it now. This is exactly what I was after. Everybody should read this. It shows how an egg can be layed that has now become a world full of chickens. If you have any doubts, please call or email. 704 433 6473 -- many thanxPu'ukani, Charlie PS are you any kind to the Kuhuna?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:35 - ID#341189)
3 charts
For anyone who's interested in the XAU/gold ratio. This and the next two charts give the Hx of the XAU together with the ratio and gold.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:42 - ID#345321)
Donald - re: Swiss taking stolen gold.......
was anyone ever prosecuted or punished? Probably not.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:43 - ID#341189)
XAU ratio hx
Second chart

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:44 - ID#384350)
T Young, Switzerland
Tom, great theory. Personally, I feel that if Big Brother wants a certain poll result, actual results don't matter. The polls will be rigged. The vote will be rigged. Big Brother will get any vote result that he desires.

I couldn't see more than 5% supporting such a referendum, but I am sure as an eventual referendum approaches it will approach 50%.

Also, it appears that the big Swiss multinationals hold much sway in this Alpine state. If Nestl ( et al ) wants a lower SFR, the govt appears to be willing to accomodate.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:46 - ID#31876)
Prior to the Chinese takeover of Hong Kong's government in 1997,
there was a large exodus of enterprise from Hong Kong. It would
seem that, today, given the economic turmoil in the entire area,
that reports of companies moving elsewhere would surface. I've
seen many reports of business failures, nothing about moves. Have
I missed some of your posts on this subject?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 16:53 - ID#341189)
XAU ratio hx
Third chart - note this and last two charts are of wkly close data.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:06 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Labour Market Pressures - Faith - Debt - Pay The Price
The Workers ( The People ) should realistically recognize their status as commodities on the market. They should go out and get the best price they could for their commodity, their power to work. They should aim for the best conditions in the here and now.

1. ) Why progress and poverty ?
2. ) Why does poverty follow progress ?

*. ) Progress - means economic expansion.
*. ) The growth of industry - tended to raise the value of land.
*. ) Landlords pocketed this increase - an unearned increment.

Corporations/International Corporations, moved indiscriminately.
1. ) Bankers/Corporations - What is basic is not land or money, but "Material Production" - the processing of materials "through the simple fact of work" and the consequent increase in their value.

2. ) So far as land was concerned, land was just another means of production.

3. ) Land became capital the same as buildings, machinery, and the money fund for wages.

4. ) Capital moved indiscriminately from industry, to finance, to commerce, and service, to land, and back again - attracted where profits were higher.

------Wage Problem-----

1. ) Should the worker ( the people ) confine themselves to seeking higher wages and shorter hours ?

2. ) Should the people ( workers ) seek a bigger slice of the pie ?

3. ) Should the people ( workers ) go for the whole pie ?

*. Because the people ( workers ) where the ones who baked the pie, and made the materials that went into the pie.
*. If the people ( workers ) believed the whole pie was rightfully theirs and acted on that belief, that was not good enough.
*. The pie belonged to the Bankers/Corporations.
*. Bankers/Corporations sell the pie into the market and get the best price.
*. Bankers/Corporations were going to make sure that at the end of the cycle of production and marketing, after the costs of materials, wages, machinery and buildings had been met, there was still a fair slice of the pie for them - "Profit"

----Free Enterprise---
All the forces of practice, accumulated habit, ownership, economic and political power, the various dominant social institutions and ideas were there to ensure that free enterprise operated unimpeded and unchallenged - at least not frontally challenged - basically and consistently challenged.

---Workers ( the people ) Alternative ---
The market was not just the pie they had baked - commodities in general, but a commodity of a special type: "Their power to work" " Labour power"

There best course was to do what free enterprise ( Bankers/Corporations ) did.

Go out on the market and get the best possible price and conditions for their commodity - "Labour power" go out and get higher wages, shorter hours, a more tolerable workload, a better life for themselves and their families.

..................The best way to do this was - COMBINATION ( Organize )

FREE ENTERPRISE tended to confine production to the movement of profit, and block the natural imminent power of production itself.

.....Thus arose the conflict of Capital and Labour.

Labour would learn its lessons in defeat and victory.

Sooooooooooooooo, I suggest, the high debts carried by the people,and stress/education/long hours etc. will motivate them to demand a larger slice of the pie. Yes, inflation exists. The fight back by free enterprise, ( Bankers/Corporation ) will result in a deflation/depression. ( Progress THEN Poverty )

That is my take..........FWIW.......Take Care.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:17 - ID#258129)
@Zeke, 15:46
Of course, you can reproduce my chart. Any more or less up-to-date spreadsheet program will provide. Do following.
1. Fill 3 columns with data: Date - Dow - Gold
2. Add two columns with "normalized" data: find maximum values for Dow and Gold price for given period of time and divide daily values by maximum. In fact, this step is needed for better visual representation only.
3. Skip 60 trading days down from the beginning. In next column add correlation coefficient between Dow and Gold price for first 60 days. You may use built-in statistical functions of spreadsheet program for this.
4. Extend calculation formula for correlation coefficient down, so in the next row it will be for days 2 to 61, then days 3 to 62 and so on till the end of time period
5. Plot days on horizontal axes, normalized values of Gold and Dow on the left vertical axes and values of correlation coefficient on the right vertical axes. Thats it.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:19 - ID#26793)
Not that I recall. Indeed, I was surprised to learn that the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) is opening a branch to service Asia in Hong Kong. I wondered if there is a Chinese gold angle to that move. I did hear of some business staff cutbacks in HK, but no closings. No one wants to upset China and miss out on the next boom. ( heh, heh )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:27 - ID#17796)
@Gianni Dioro
The reason the Swiss have such a weak central government is that the People refuse to vote otherwise. The Swiss government does not have control. Referendum, my @ss. No way. This must be crisis time. No other explanation. Americans could only dream of being so independent in this day and age.

What happens now when this rumor runs the price of gold UP instead of DOWN? Watch out, the mother of all gold bull markets may be at hand. No spin by the governments will then have any negative effect. Danger! Warning! Hold on to your physical.

Time tells all. My opinions of course, but how in Gods name can the rumor of possible Swiss gold sales in the next five to ten years be bearish? Why is this put forth in the first place? THINK! A crisis is at hand- we just dont know it. IMHO


Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:31 - ID#384350)
Did Soros buy Farmland in Argentina?
If anyone knows, please reply?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:33 - ID#384350)
TYoung, Switzerland
Did you come up with this theory yourself, or did you hear it elsewhere. BTW, it sounds more than plausible to me.

Bully Beef
(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:58 - ID#259282)
6pak..your take is my take...ultra right wingers ...sorry.
Had to reply right away. You Know in my experience the very people who are harmed by the right wing policy vote for the RWP. My wife and I are well off in our opinion and see all kinds of people who hurt as a result of the system yet want to cut there own throats through extreme right wing ideology. Go figure. I'm an educated worker who recognizes that my employer wants my wages knocked down to 10 bucks an hour with no benefits and no job security. Well thats what we have . The backlash is that I don't give a good dang anymore for my employer. I only give it what I'm paid for. No extra. Too bad for it. Good thing I'm not a consumer and live where the cost of living is low. Do you fashion yourself as a great entrepreneur? Well pay your staff well... trust them and treat them humanely and you will have a successful business.
P.S. If I misread your post I apologise.You may get a problem.Commie!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 17:59 - ID#17796)
@Gianni Dioro
Just me. I have not read or heard of anyone else explaining this "rumor". Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:02 - ID#26793)
Rather poor planning don't you think, limiting the upside scale on your charts to 600? Going to have to do the all over again in a few weeks. ( grin thing )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:10 - ID#26793)
Soros invests in Argentina

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:14 - ID#26793)
@Mr. Mick
On the Nazi side we had the Nuremburg War Trials so there was some element of punishment there. I don't think that anything ever happened to any Swiss if that is your question.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:21 - ID#329157)
That Swiss Gold announcement...
We may be witness to a major development about to unfold...

On the 23rd October 1997 the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down -1211.47 points or 10.41% at 10426.30, as a result of currency speculator attacks on the HK currency peg against the U.S. dollar. The intraday drop of 14.6 percent was the biggest recorded since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

The day after this major event in world markets, Friday 24th October 1997, the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Finance Ministry made the original "disposal of 1,400 metric tons of gold" statement.

The metal gold is a political metal, is it not? See the site of Mr. Bill Buckler at

Just a few days after the HK drop and the Swiss gold announcement, we had the "mini crash" of October 1997!

The Dow Jones ended October 27th down -554.26 ( a record points drop ) at 7161.15. On the way it triggered not one but two of the larger market curbs ( halts in trading ) that were put in place after 1987 to prevent another crash- the first time that these levels had been triggered.

We look backwards to see forwards, yes? So can anyone suggest what might happen in a few days time? This "connection", it is not clear for everyone to see, because they do stand within the forest, and can see "many trees". At Kitco, we look at the forest, and see that which others do not see.

At the close of last week, the Dow had fallen for the week. There have been a series of announcements from various Fed sources about the risk of inflation and it is clear that a Fed rate rise is "on the cards".

It would appear that money flows into US stock funds slowed last week. Japan's latest economic package did not impress. Look back over news reports of Japanese economic packages, and we see that it is the "same old".

Japan's Mr. Yen has spoken in the last week, that Japan could sell US Treasuries at any time. This was first reported as being said "jokingly". Later reports did not mention this "joking"! So, we must look seriously at what is to come from Japan. If they do indeed sell the dollar and US Treasuries to support their own Yen, this will force T-bill interest rates up and the stock indexes down! We know what to look for. Next week could be interesting!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:26 - ID#28594)
What we all need...
is a "Lucky" little coin to add jingle...take a look!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:32 - ID#26793)
MIT discussion of factors in a currency crisis

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:33 - ID#335190)
Bully Beef @ your take is my take -............. Yes, it is.
Bully Beef ( 6pak..your take is my take...ultra right wingers ...sorry. ) ID#259282:
Do you fashion yourself as a great entrepreneur? Well pay your staff well... trust them and treat them humanely and you will have a successful business.

.......YES. Your take is my take.Your reply and thoughts are correct
( right wing is to be a SUIT -1998 Corporate BUM - they never wrote a weekly pay cheque, as is required, by an entrepreneur business. )

all kinds of people who hurt as a result of the system yet want to cut there own throats through extreme right wing ideology. Go figure.
...........Right On, as you, I have never understood this.

P.S. If I misread your post I apologise

......I expect we are of the same mind set, unfortunately, your take is to be offended by your employer, sorry I do not know him, yet, he likely is struggling to understand the madness, that we all, are trying to come to understand. ( yes, that is his problem, not yours )

You may get a problem.Commie!
.......this I do not understand, unless, you suggest that anyone that sides with labour ( the people ) are a commie. Hell, ask 1000 people to explain what a commie is, and you will get 10,000 answers.

Thanks, for your reply. Take Care.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:37 - ID#254112)
TYoung: Please Read Gaston2 (Two Posts: 14:53 and 14:55)
about the Swiss National Bank's President Hans Meyer's recent speach.
His interpretation is also completely original!
Both of your interpretations are in a fascinating way original. I'm now struggling if there is a common denominator or if they are antagonistic.
But both are extremely bullish for gold. Yes, that's for sure their common denominator: bullish for gold.

Gaston2 basically says that Hans Meyer is scared because the Swiss currency has appreciated too strongly in recent weeks. He thinks the reason for the strong Swiss Franken is the 100% backing by gold. Gaston2 thinks, that's why they want to get rid of their gold. They are afraid their currency might go through the roof because of it's high gold backing!

Thanks to both of you, TYoung and Gaston2 for your great posts!
You gave me a lot to think.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:38 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton....................................................* Go*
hi Fitzpatrick~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:42 - ID#335190)
Hi Ted. How goes the packing ?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:50 - ID#341189)
I'd be more than willing to redo the scale if gold goes over 600. ( grin back at ya ) Are you sure you are going to want to sell shares if and when the xau/au ratio hits .3? My thinking is to hold on if gold remains above its 40wk av. AND the xau/au Ratio remains above its 10 wk av. What do you think about using these two criteria as sell signals?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:54 - ID#197211)
The boxed in Fed.
It seems to me that the Fed has boxed themselves in. If they raise the intrest rates, the bond market tanks. Then you have everyone selling U.S. Bonds. Not good. A one percent increase will not cool off the asset inflation in the Real Estate sector. From where I sit, I have seen $400K new construction homes go to $600K in 24 months. Again, a 1 percent rise will not effect this market. The construction presently slated and demand in this asset class is through the roof. This asset class will keep inflating on the present course even with a number of rate increases. As to the stock market we all know the story there. So what do they do??? Not much, I think there going to just sit there and do nothing and let the market crash. Everything will slow to a halt. No more asset inflation. No intrest rate hike. And AG has already warned us. And why did they almost eliminate the circut breakers on the exchange. The way they have it set up now, there is really no stopping the market on a steep down turn. They don't have many options, either you the raise rates or you sit on your hands, print money and hope the market tanks.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 18:56 - ID#28594)
Very diligent efforts to keep our attention away from...WHAT? Puzzle #2
( Puzzle #1 being Swiss gold, Swiss/Nazi gold and the BIS's invitation to the CB of China, e.g. )
Puzzle #2: Yuan yawn?

Before this happens, of course, there will be all sorts of speculation about the dual currency situation beginning with Hong Kongs USD60 billion plus foreign currency reserves. How much of this treasury chest would China really want to waste defending the dollar peg?

Then there is the issue of dual monetary policy. Unless the ultimate agenda is to dollarize all of China, and give up control over monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve, can eventual currency union be avoided? Upward interest rate pressure and a strong dollar in particular have been problematic elsewhere.

QUESTION: Why has the focus been so DETERMINEDLY switched from HK peg to USD to devaluation of yuan? What has the WB/IMF and the FED so terrified?

2. 124 Sydney Morning Herald - Daily News - China confident on trade China's Vice-Minister for Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation, Mr Long Yongtu, also said the Chinese Government wanted to reduce its $40 billion world trade surplus through slashing exports and buying more imported goods. Australia's trade to the worst affected economies of South Korea and Indonesia has dived, but Mr Long said Australia-China trade would remain largely unaffected despite.

3. 706 1997 Lucky Gold Coin The "Lucky Gold Coin" of the Chinese Traditional Auspicious Matter is a LEGAL TENDER of the Peoples Repblic of China, issued by the Peoples Bank of China, minted by Shenyang Mint, and solely distributed by China Gold Coin Incorporation. The obverse depicts the omamental columns and flowers, the title of PRC and the issuing year, and the reverse of the picture --. ( Excite )
( Besides being cheap legal tender, this is a FUN little coin! This coin-R-us {:- ) ) in our better moods...

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:04 - ID#411149)
AHP- if you are readin this PM would you please give me a holler.

Survived the LEFT coast this week, Monterey is absolutely BEAUTIFUL!

Tally Ho

PS-Hey BRO, I enjoyed your fishin story!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:05 - ID#330175)
6pak.......and it's hard to pack while drinking Rum-------------

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:10 - ID#342376)
Just sent you e-mail, take a look at APH's chart from April 24, last time slot!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:13 - ID#335190)
Yes...... But, best to plan the move. And rum is the spirit, that is needed to get all the planning done. Happy planning eh!

Be safe, and Take Care.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:17 - ID#370218)
Thank you for pointing out Gaston2s posts. This view may be correct but I beg to differ. The Euro will either have a large gold backing or it will fail. Remember this will only be known very close to 01/01/1999. Interestingly, gold backing of the Euro will be at market price. WHY?

Think! This is planned as of last year. WHY? If it is announced that there will be 25% gold backing for the Euro in May with gold at $300. and gold is at $1200 as of December of 1998, what does this mean?

All of the European CBs manipulated the price of gold down in 1997-98 by RUMOR. The Swiss know what is going on, have known and are playing their part.

The Europeans can not appear to be challenging the US. Therefore in early May Gold needs to be manipulated close to $300. Essentially, this means the CBs are trying to keep gold under $320 until after May 2nd. Thereafter, if gold rises unexpectedly it is not Europe that is challenging the US; it is simply the way things worked out. Right!!!

There is a plan in place, we just dont know what it is. My vote is for the Euro to be announced as having 15%-25% gold backing and gold to rise thereafter to a level equal to 100% backing.

Sound crazy-not at all. Of what value is a weak Euro? NONE. The entire concept is to CHALLENGE the US dollar. The rest of the world values gold-only those in the US think it is worthless. This all shall come to pass. I realize this is all a guess, but there is no other rational explanation of what has gone on. Do CBs who hold billions of ounces of gold manipulate the value down for no reason? Have the CBs sold gold to the open market? The STING is on-watch yourshorts.


(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:19 - ID#26793)
I had already modified my plan to require two closing days above .300 or an intra-day reading equal to or greater than .307. I did that because as I enter more historical data I am finding occasional failures where .300 is hit and backed-off.

My fear on the moving average is shown in the very short open window for buying on December 9, 1997. Waiting for the M/A would have cost you money ( but could be safer ) . What do you think of using real time on buys and M/A on sells?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:21 - ID#26793)
Article in Barron's today predicts EMU gold backing only between 10 and 20%

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:28 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Hourly Gold Chart is UGLY, but the trend is still UP!
Also note that Gold is now in 2nd and 4th place on the
30 day regression chart of ALL Fidelity sectors.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:29 - ID#330175)
go Habs~~~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:34 - ID#26793)
Dubai gold trade down 25% on Indian import reforms.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:41 - ID#26793)
OTS issues new rules on derivative trading by savings banks.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:46 - ID#317193)
Donald-your soooo good
Got the URL-yes I have access. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 19:51 - ID#26793)
Weak yen is helping Japanese companies cut losses.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:00 - ID#26793)
Insurance industry lobby cranking up bill to stick losses to taxpayers.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:01 - ID#288156)
TYoung, your 19:17...
Sounds VERY plausible to me!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:07 - ID#317193)
Donald-found the Barron's article
What HYPE! Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:17 - ID#255151)

Some excellent and thought-provoking posts today.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:26 - ID#393224)
G'day all. Just back from the goldfields.
Just finished my pilgrimage to the Victorian goldfields. A week of pure self-indulgence crawling around old gold mines and the Ballarat gold museum.

Visited the site of "The Eureka Stockade" -- the Aussie equivalent of "The Boston Tea Party". In 1854 the miners slogan was "no taxation without representation". Sound familiar? On 29 Nov. 1854 miners burned their 'gold licences'. On Dec. 2nd the gov't soldiers killed 22 miners and imprisoned many more. Mark Twain later commented:

"The Ballarat miners protested, petitioned, complained--it was of no use; the Government held its ground and went on collecting the tax. And not by pleasant methods...By and by there was a result; and I think it may be called the finest thing in Australasian history. It was a revolution--small in size, but great politically; it was a strike for liberty, a struggle for principle, a stand against injustice and oppression. It was the Barons and John, over again; it was Hampden and Ship Money; it was Concord and Lexington; small beginnings, all of them, but all of them great in political results, all of them epoch-making. It is another instance of a victory won by a lost battle. It adds an honourable page to history; the people knew it and are proud of it. They keep green the memory of the men who fell at the Eureka Stockade..."

Then visited the gold museum -- THREE TIMES in 24 hours. By the third visit one of the staff members was following me around--I wonder if it had anything to do with my quip about 'finding a stronger glass cutter' on my previous visit? Have you ever looked at 3 Million in gold nuggets and coins?? I drooled all over the glass cabinets. 40 oz nuggets--all shapes and sizes--coins from antiquity to the present day--all shapes,sizes and countries. Had models of world's biggest nuggets ( all from Vic. goldfields ) --welcome stranger= 2217 oz? about the height of your monitor but twice as long!! The missus had to drag me outta the place--3xxx!!

Went down a 17 level gold mine in Bendigo on a quartz saddle reef ( anticline ) . Imagine a saddle 1 km high ( about 11 US football fields ) with a quartz vein running through the middle of it. Single shaft right down the middle with all the levels coming off this shaft. Big poppet head over the shaft and all men and ore went up and down this single shaft. Unimaginably harsh working conditions. Makes you realize how much effort goes into obtaining this stuff we are all talking about!!

I could go on and on and on -- but I am knackered!!

One nice thing though--great to come home and find that the trip has been paid for many times over!!! You guys/gals have done a good job in my absence!! What happened?? Has Ted started buying gold shares??

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:26 - ID#288156)
Gulf Crisis is Looming--Monday Morning Equity Blues?
Sunday, April 25, 1998
Iraq Says Will Break UN Sanctions
US: Iraq Must Disclose More on Nukes
Iraq: US Plans Attack on Iraq
Baghdad Sends a Report to UN
Challenges Grow to UN Sanctions

Compiled by Khattab Salman
BAGHDAD ( AROL ) - The dark clouds of war are looming once again in the Gulf area with the United Nations ( and the US ) are building
tension in the region.

Iraqi papers have already accused the United States of planning an
attack against Iraq. They said that the latest tour of US defense secretary William Cohen was to that purpose.

"William Cohen's tour in the Arab homeland aims at consulting with American allies to identify what should be done against Iraq," Babel, owned by President Saddam Hussein's eldest son Uday, said in a
front-page editorial.

The Iraqi government has been complaining about the sanctions and the
inspectors, namely Chief inspector Richard Butler.

Iraq has sent a report to the UN last week conveying Baghdad's
worries in that regard saying that Butler is " misrepresenting Iraq's
disarmament efforts in an attempt to keep sanctions in place."

The United Nations is scheduled to review the sanctions against Iraq on
Monday for the first time since June 1997, when the review was halted
in reaction to Iraqi interference with the work of U.N. inspection teams.
The sanctions review is normally conducted every 60 days.
Previous related stories
Butler Says Crisis is Looming: Chief Arms inspector predicts black
future. 18/4/98

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:29 - ID#341189)
Your 19:19. Yes, I think the moving average is better on sells. If and when there is a strong rally and definite trend change in gold, I'm going to be considering the downward crossover of the wkly ratio with the 10 wk average ratio as a sell. I think we have to be prepared for the strongly leveraged shares to push the ratio itself way past .3 for a while in such an event.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:31 - ID#317193)
Thanks-appreciate any other THOUGHTS on the subject. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:34 - ID#256326)
Your geographic analysis was correct: NM.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:36 - ID#254112)
@TYoung: Your 19:17
Tom, your theory sounds very good!
I like to take all these aspects into consideration.
The market price of gold for the EURO backing might be the smartest and most diplomatic thing they could do. However, this brings Italy into trouble because they have dollarized their 3,000+ tons of gold at US$360.
Italy is finacially weak and cannot afford any bookvalue losses, also not temorarily. That's why I always thought the ECU meeting will put a guaranteed minimum price on gold, equal to the Italian book value.

Things get really exciting! We still have more than one week to wait.
If the stockmarket crashes on Monday we will have even more fun all week long!

Alberich the Dwarf

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:41 - ID#384350)
Will Argentina Again be a Haven?
Donald, thanks for the Soros link.

I remember over a year ago reading in the Sun tabloid with interest a tiny tidbit saying that Sylvester Stallone bought a 350,000 expanse near Bariloche in Argentina. Your link mentions that Soros owns a luxury hotel in Bariloche, as well as other property investments in Argentina.

Argentina was a haven for Germans in the 40's. History may repeat and Argentina may be the place to be in the future. Immigration to Argentina is quite easy for men of means like us kitcoites. After 2 years of residence, one can acquire Argentinian nationality.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:44 - ID#307271)
@Delphi, Carl
Thanks Delphi. Hope to use this info with my TC2000 data which is a Dos program using ASCII or DBF input to one of several spreadsheets. What type of data input are you using?

Thanks Carl for the useful charts of XAU ratio. This .3 XAU/Spot ratio being used by Donald and others is certainly intriguing. Is there any logic in this number or is it just one of the universal constants like pi or e or Avagadro's No.?

What is the latest and best calculated guess as to the EMU's call on gold backing? Should we anticipate 30%, or are the odds with the Machine's Spin Doctors at a lower rate? Anyone?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:44 - ID#317193)
But there is no"loss" until 01/01/1999 for Italy. Maybe the number is $360 now and $360 X 4= $1440 or $360 X 3= $1080. Know I'm quessing but it makes sense to me. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 20:48 - ID#330175)
Nick @ C....................................
not yet~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:06 - ID#348129)
Did you buy your ABX bacK?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:06 - ID#34857)
"EL OTRO" He comes, YES?
Ah yes, Saturday night and one more opportunity to lurk with EL OTRO. Popcorn is popped and buttered,last week's posts committed to memory, and the missus watching her favorite made-for-TV movie ... not to mention the cold brew at my side...

Yep, I'm ready ... I'm ready for ANOTHER!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:10 - ID#286249)
Something else for Monday morning ...
Friday, FT Apr 24, 1998 Comment and Analysis

Investors are beginning to wonder if the US economy might prove a bubble. Will the US currency fall?

The dollar began to climb three years ago this week. It has hardly looked back since. Batch after batch of data confirmed the US economy as the star of the rich world. Whenever he was asked, Robert Rubin would repeat his mantra, A strong dollar is in the US interest.

Yet an era may be ending. This week the worlds most heavily traded exchange rate, the dollar/D-mark rate, may have begun to turn. The dollar dipped below DM 1.80; at the start of the month it had hit a peak of DM1.85.

Michael Rosenberg, head of international fixed-income research at Merrill Lynch, describes himself as one of the few dollar bulls left.
Phillippa Malmgren, currency strategist at Bankers Trust, and a fellow bull, says: The market sentiment is definitely shifting right now.

COMMENT: just one interesting thing after another!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:16 - ID#153102)
TYoung ANOTHER confirmed your view that the CB had a purpose in gold leasing/gold price depression similar to your thesis. Highly plausible, I think.

The Swiss have had a perpetual problem keeping their Franc down. I think the USG buys and sells on the currency markets to aggravate this problem and force the Swiss to devalue. Someone should propose a referendum to distribute the excess Swiss CB gold to the Swiss people.

Gianni Just recommend knowing something about the law you are putting your boat under before you do it. Don't read Greek personally. Hadn't thought of carrying a diplomatic passport from Liberia, but it's an appealing concept.

The research posters on this site ( and you know who you are, I hope ) are truly amazing and have my grateful appreciation.

We are truly fortunate to live in the time of the great gold turning. Many good men kept the faith, but passed on without seeing these days. Carpe Diem. Carpe Aurem. ( ? )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:19 - ID#348129)
@Who says Gold shares don't make money ?
Great article in todays Globe and Mail about Franco Nevada and
Euro Nevada - Huge success stories.
$2000 invested 15 years ago in Franco would be worth well over $1 million today + free shares of Euro Nevada !!!!!!!
Who needs Birkshire Hathaway...........

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:21 - ID#288369)
Your 19:17.....uh huh.....nicely logical. I love it when a plan comes together.

HENRY...El Otro....yesno? I think maybe yes.

Gusto Oro
(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:25 - ID#377235)
"El Otro"
Si, Seores, necesitamos mucho cervesa este noche--listo para El Otro! --AG

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:26 - ID#330175)
MoReGoLd.....................and no I didn't buy back into ABX----
put the ABX money into wood & granite ( ( more tangible,yes? ) )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:30 - ID#413109)
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 12:04
2BR02B? ( @the other BMW-biking Jimmy Rogers bearish on gold-- year old ) ID#266105:

Yes, gold will eventually establish a bottom. Most likely that will
be when the central banksthe 800-pound gorillas in the gold
market complete their sales. Only then will the shrewd
investor want to consider moving in.
That was a year ago- I emailed him yesterday, and received his reply within hour or two-
Re: So what to invest in?
Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:19:29 -0400
Jim Rogers

I'm not "down" on precious metals. In fact, I've often pointed out palladium
and platinum would do well as Russia continues to disintegrate.
What I have constantly said, written, etc is that gold is not the best play
next time because of rising production and central bank overhangs. Gold
will do
okay, but other raw materials are much, much better next time. I don't mind
being quoted even when I'm wrong, but please be sure you understand what I've
said, written, etc.
Trust that helps to understand where he's coming from.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:31 - ID#348129)
There is nothing more tangible than Gold IMO, but you also need a place to live, yes?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:31 - ID#288369)
I ain't drinkin' no more. no nunca,,no es verdad....

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:31 - ID#254201)
Silver - For what it's worth.
Snowbird - For what it's worth I've narrowed the projection on spot silver. But, first I just talked to a knowledgable friend of mine. He thinks silver will fail at 7.00 and drop back under 5.00, he could be right. New projections for spot silver 8.75 - 9.50. The out months July, September etc. could go much higher. I expect a near vertical rise starting this week lasting into mid to late May.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:31 - ID#26669)
aurophile re 00:51 and 00:55 posts
Would you have some references on this. It sounds interesting.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:32 - ID#286224)
@PH in LH re: Mr Rudi D.

You still think it's him?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:33 - ID#413109)
Want to wish you a safe trip and a good move to your island of your
dreams. Contact me when you've settled and have the time. Jokes
will then follow as before.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:35 - ID#340302)
RE: CJS 18:21...I highly recommend you read this post...
...for those analytical individuals who are asking themselves these thought-provoking questions in the deep, still darkness of the night:

1 ) What will be the negative effects on both the general industrial equities and bonds markets when the U.S. government is compelled finally to raise interest rates within the next several weeks?

2 ) Given that in the past several weeks, gold and gold stocks have firmly re-established their negative beta ( or contrarian path ) to general industrial equities, then where would most rational equities investors wish to park their monies should bonds and industrial equities tank?

3 ) What populist perception did the U.S. mutual funds hope to create in de-indexing gold stocks on Friday and redirecting investment funds
into the bond market?

4 ) What prompted the Swiss National Bank to announce abruptly on Friday once again its intended sales of 50% of its gold reserves given that it has been silent about the matter for half a year? If it truly intends to sell its gold, why does it keep making extremely prominent public announcements in advance of such sales, knowing full well that such announcements can only drive down the ultimate price it will receive for this gold? Does such behavior seem rational if it wishes to maximize its gold sales revenues?

4 ) Which international investment institutions have been making enormous gold loans on a consistent basis over the past few years? In making such loans, did they expect to be able to reclaim the gold at a higher price or a lower price?

5 ) What country in Asia is slowly selling off its enormous pile of U.S. treasuries in order to provide crucial support for its rapidly deteriorating economic system? Moreover, what same country is trying to decide where to park its future investments in order to maximize the financial returns of those investments? Finally, what country has just opened itself up to American investment banks and is now accepting American advice on the best investment targets for those newly repatriated treasuries' monies? What key investments do you think these American investment banks are promoting...are they bonds, general industrial equities or precious metals/precious metals stocks? If these American institutions promote bonds and equities and disparage precious metals, then what would the recipients of this advice think if both bonds and general industrial equities were tanking while precious metals and PM stocks were soaring?

CJS, thank you for providing another piece to the puzzle about to unfold next week.



(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:38 - ID#340459)
My opinion
1- The Swiss are under the gun and forced to talk down their own assets
as Somebody is alarmed at recent upward movement in Gold / Gold Stocks.
It doesnt make sense otherwise. The Swiss know very well that reiterating
announcement of their Gold Sales will bring prices down, Why would they hammer their own toes. It means that either they have NO REAL INTENTION of sales but it is to temper their soaring currency that will hurt their exports. The strength of Swiss Franc is their extensive reserves of Gold.
Canadian Dollars is hammered after Bank of Canada sold substantial amounts of Gold. The bailout and recovery attempts in Thailand and s.Korea were centered around collecting Gold from the Public. Swiss are more shrewd than what is apparent in their announcement.

2- Majority of Global trade is denominated in US $ and Oil that is the heart of Industrial growth is traded ONLY in US $. It is noteworthy that
4/5th's of International trade is invoiced in Dollars. Euro is going to change the equation dramatically as European Union's GDP/GNP will be close to US and Europeans will feel rejuvenated by their elevated economic and superior global position and would aim for the top slot, US may find it difficult to accept as US $ denominated trade will slowly erode from a position that they have dominated all through this century. Many countries disenchanted with US will move closer in trade pacts with EU wherein they are atleast assured of diversified Govt representation as oppposed to USA which is heavily tilted and influenced by a single powerful lobby. Any dilution of US hegemony is very bullish for Gold as is evident in the past.

3- If the Japanese are up against the wall for their economic survival inspite of their considerable trade surplus and substantial savings, they will HAVE TO pull large sums of money out of USA and into Yen to implement WHATEVER economic package that they come up with. This will naturally result in higher interest rates by Fed to attract "flight to quality" from other countries of the world, that to me may be very Bullish for Gold.

4- Y2K scare will increase tremendeously as dire predictions emerge ( based upon imminent reality of Year 2000 computer crises ) on extensive global corporate breakdown and economic upheaval that would force people to withdraw wealth entrusted to digital electrons and numbers in a Bank's Database. This would most likely create a massive purchases of physical Gold next year. Depletion and withdrawal of funds from Banking would undoubtedly hurt all types of paper investments.

5- later on, there might be another bloc similiar to EU emerge in Asia with China ( and / or Japan ) leading and trying to wrest some global muscle from US and Europe and in order to consolidate economically and unite Asia ( after the lessons learned through the current Asian crises )

6- USA will use all economic, political and military weapons to have control over technology and Energy ( Oil ) as long as they possibly can that might result in more countries being wary of US foreign policy and actions.

7- if there is global market meltdown and/or severe global economic upheaval, The supremacy of IMF/World Bank/G-7 will come into question and their loyalties might shift from being closely aligned to USA to position whereby they will first cover their own @ss before they toe the Rubin/Greenspan line.

Any comments on above will be appreciated.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:41 - ID#34857)
STUDIO.R - No Mas?
100 botellas en la pared
100 botellas en la pared
Si una botella se cae de la pared
99 botellas en la pared


(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:43 - ID#288369)
It's pretty obvious to me that we, collectively, know one helluva' lot more about the present gold market than little Jimmy. He needs to study this market more thoroughly and avoid belching haphazard, equivocating investment advice. Stick with your rubber deal, jimmy.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:44 - ID#413109)
Further to J.Roger's comments
Seeing gold as an investment for the long term shouldn't narrow
my outlook on what else others have to say. In that vain J.Rogers
RJ and others are right in saying look at other PMs as an investment
vehicle. Right now it is worthwhile especially the traders to look
@--- ---- the silver chart and
compare the stochastics to gold and platinum and there you should
find some interesting near term divergencies - NO?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:46 - ID#254112)
Y2K: What we can learn from Nathan Rothschild when the Telephone breaks down.
This is a nice Saturday evening story. It starts with the battle of Waterloo on June 17, 1815.
At that time they didn't have telecommunication devices in place. But it was crucial to be the first one to know certain events. In this case the result of the battle beween Napoleon and Wellington.

Nathan Rothschild, the most successful of Mayer Amschel Rothschild's five sons, made sure that he would be the first one in London to know the outcome of this historic battle. He did it without telecommunication devices: with pigeons and with a riding messenger for whom a boat was waiting to cross the channel from Ostend to London. Some biographers emphasize more the pigeons, others more the riding messenger. My conclusion: he already knew the advantage of a backup information system. He used both methods, because he was planning a big thing.

This technology will have a comeback in case the public telephone networks won't work on January 1, 2000. Or, maybe some banks will have a backup technology in place ( like private, satellite based networks ) in order to be able to act, based on accuarate information.

Back to Nathan Rothschild: he was the first one to know on June 18th, 1815 in London that Wellington had won the battle. When a Rothschild wants to buy something he first crashes the price. In this case, what Nathan Rothschild wanted to buy, was the government bonds with which England had financed this war.

To continue this story, I'm quoting from G. Edward Griffin's book "The Creature from Jekyll Island":

"All eyes were upon him ( Nathan R. ) as he slumped dejectedly, staring at the floor. Then, he raised his gaze and, with pained expression, began to sell. The whisper went through the crowded room, "Nathan is selling?", "Nathan is selling!", "Wellington must have lost." "Our government bonds will never be repaid." "Sell them now. Sell. Sell."
Prices tumbled and Nathan sold again. Prices plummented, and still Nathan sold. Finally, prices collapsed altoghether and, in one quick move, Nathan reversed his call and purchased the entire market in government bonds. In a matter of just a few hours, he had acquired the dominant holding of England's entire debt at but a tiny fraction of its worth."

So far this historically challenging Y2K scenario.

If you need a private satellite based network in place for backup puposes, just in case, and want expertise consuting on this matter, you can send an e-mail to

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:46 - ID#153102)
#7 regarding the IMF/World Bank is not a view I share as I believe they are surrogates for USG. Otherwise, this site is becoming adept at decoding the disinformation stream of media, regulators, and brokerages.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:49 - ID#60253)
Mr. TYoung,
Will the German government "sell" gold to the new ECB, or will they "transfer" it? A large difference, Yes? I send a post for this, this day.

Thank You

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:49 - ID#377211)
Why did the Swiss reiterate their potential selling of 1400 tons of gold?....
I cannot yet find the reason why...and at which occasion Hans Meyer ( Swiss SNB ) did reiterate the possible sell of 1400 tonnes from the Swiss gold reserves. At this point I have 3 hypothesis ( already hinted at in my previous posts ) :
( a ) Swiss Frank is appreciating too much because the swiss have too much of this valuable gold and make Swiss goods much less competitive ( good for POG because that is a hidden admission that gold is VERY valuable ) ...
( b ) A Swiss attempt at manipulating POG down to allow gold-poor European countries to not have to foot to much mullah for the EMU while others ( like Netherland, France Germany ) just give some of their gold... ( good for POG because this type of pressure will disappear when the deal is known and when some gold is frozen in EMU backing purpose )
( c ) Very little physical gold availlable ( left ) in Switzerland... Switzerland being the world center for physical gold exchanges... a scarry thought... but the best for POG...
I have the feeling that all of the above are right.... future will tell. For some reasons, I don't see the Swiss reiteration as a big downer for POG this week... unless that is an "international" code for most central banks to keep POG down... for now...
Goiod luck to all

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:53 - ID#288369)
It was that beautiful sonnet that you just posted, 99 BoB...., that inspired ANOTHER to chime in....good work, my man.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:55 - ID#17796)
Sell or transfer? It matters not the name but the result! Reduce the debt. Yes? Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 21:59 - ID#377211)
How will the Swiss be able to convince Swiss folks that their CB has to unload 1400 tons of AU?...
Swiss will never let their gold go, and let their Swiss Franc devaluate simply because their governement said so! Swiss are super stubborn ( see Jewish gold affair and N.Y. Ambassador catastrophic memo regarding that topic! ) . For over 700 years the Swiss have prevented invaders and wars in Switzerland. And not because they used diplomacy only. They are reknown soldiers. They will defend their territory to their death ( after all, during the French revolution, 400+ Swiss mercenaries/guards all died, protecting Louis the XVI .... not because they liked the French King but because they are stubborn, are goal and duty oriented and because they were paid... in gold... ) . Still now, all Swiss men are automatically drafted in the Swiss army ( about 20% rejected for medical or political reasons and spent over 1.5 years in the Swiss army... keeping combat gear at home from age 18 to 50 ( ! ) I believe... with live ammunition in their home, for their revolvers or semiautomatic guns ( just two clips I believe ) ... No wonder the Pope has Swiss guards!.... They knbow how to fight and there is a lot of gold in the Vatican!... The only other country in the world where the whole population is combat ready is Israel... Why I am telling you that is that I have another idea about the Swiss governement trying to sell 1400 tonnes of gold... they probably could... but probably only by having a referendum saying that the Swiss CB gold will be first offered and sold to Swiss nationals, and that any leftover would go outside Swiss borders. That is the only way I see that kind of gold tonnage leaving the Swiss CBs.
Good luck to all. All the above IMHO....In the meantime... I am loaded to the gills on RANGY. Thank you Vronsky, Polarbear and Co.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:04 - ID#266105)

Reify/re:JR-- Nice to get a prompt, personal e-mail response
from the guy, speaks well of him. That clarifies his notions
about precious metals a bit to which I've never paid much
attention. I like what appears to be his spontaneous candor
and genuine disgust with alot of things around, it finds
a resonance with a same points for the same reasons : )
Also think Rogers has a command of the facts in his
forte ( and college course ) ..geo-economics or whatever
he calls it.

Ted-- it's with a sigh of relief I hear you've not
reentered the PM market. But now Ise thinkin' of selling
my house....

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:20 - ID#34857)
Went to get a bottle off the wall, and when I came back, HE'S HERE!- YESSS!!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:20 - ID#300202)
Best wishes to u & urs in ur relocation. I will take over the Cape Breton
weather reports should u decide to sanction same. I am not conviced u are
a goldbug nor am I convinced u are a carpenter nor a meteorologist for that matter, but I am convinced you are one helluva person. Steve Weagle
sends his regards & Yvonne Colbert is on ur side & as Pete Luckett from
Pete's Frootique says-"Toodly Doo". See ya Ted. Godspeed.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:20 - ID#373403)
Remarks by

William J. McDonough
President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

at the

Year 2000 Round Table
of the Bank for International Settlements

Basle, Switzerland

April 8, 1998

"Year 2000 risk serves as a reminder that, in a global economic system, payment systems and markets may only be as strong as those that are least prepared."

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:23 - ID#413109)
Nathan R.
ALBERICH- Interesting article on a little bit of history that I didn't
Doesn't it remind of CBs behavior in the gold market for the past year
or so, driving the price down with rhetoric- and wonder who's doing
all the buying, maybe other CBs? Possibly "ANOTHER" knows the answer.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:25 - ID#17796)
Let me once again reiterate my belief that you have affected the minds of those here a Kitco AND effected the gold market positively by your posts.

You may be crazy, but crazy like a fox. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:27 - ID#340302)
...I am sorry but my previous post was slightly screwed up ( wrongly numbered and ommitted several paragraphs ) owing to a problem in transferring copy from my hard disk onto the Kitco Message Form.

( Continuing )

6 ) Why would the Swiss National bank wish to talk down the price of gold? Is the ostensible reason ( devaluation of its currency ) a compelling one? In fact, what might be the consequences of Switzerland actually selling off half its gold reserves? Could this not result in a complete trashing of the Swiss Franc ( rather than mere nominal devaluation ) given that most countries, institutions, and individuals hold Swiss Francs owing to their 50% gold-backed security? In such an event, does it really make any sense for Switzerland to contemplate such a sale for even one moment?

7 ) Is it conceivable that Switzerland and several other central banks have loaned out gold ( on paper ) well in excess of their actual gold reserves? Moreover, compounding this problem, is it possible that gold speculators have sold quantities of gold ( on paper ) well in excess of their financial wherewithal to repurchase ( or their ability to locate ) equivalent gold quantities at current price levels or higher? If the two preceding scenarios are accurate, then does it then become understandable why it is imperative to the financial health of certain central banks and institutional speculators that the price of gold must tumble?

8 ) Finally, what would be the consequence to the price of gold if a consortium of individuals or institutions were to demand immediate physical delivery of a nice little bundle of gold previously purchased? Moreover, just who would contemplate making such a demand?


So, have you figured out the puzzle yet?



(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:29 - ID#288369)
@While we wait.......newsreel time........or the roadrunner...... new .Acme products.......
Geeze....I had this great ( for me ) post to Sheller completely finished this morning and Kitco ate it. Bummer....I can't reconstruct my THOUGHTS! Has this happened to you? boooo hoooo.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:29 - ID#257148)
Eureka Stockade

looking forwared to more tales of your journeys. In the meantime, thought we could all benefit from a recitation of The Diggers Oath of those early miners at the Eureka Stockade:

"We swear by the Southern Cross to stand truly by each other and fight to defend our rights and liberties."

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:31 - ID#17796)
At least put your whole post together in one place. Come on boy, do it right! Tom

Lan Man
(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:36 - ID#320108)
@IRS Deathwatch Update:
"SI has been reporting on the insuperable troubles the IRS is having with Y2K. Word now from several private Y2K companies is that IRS computer programmers are exiting in droves and applying for high-paying private sector jobs. These companies report two revelations from the ex-IRS applicants. First, many have such poor computer skills that they cannot be hired. Two, those whose skills are acceptable unanimously agree the IRS hasn't a ghost of a chance to fix its computer systems by Millennial Midnight. By tax time next year, tens of millions of taxpayers will know of the impending demise of the IRS."

Strategic Investment April 22, 1998

Tax Free in 1999!


(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:38 - ID#256326)
Many excellent posts today on the Swiss/gold conundrum. There certainly exist CB's which will have had their gold stripped from them in the leasing scam, but I do not think it will have been the Swiss. Not that I credit the SNB with supra-human talent.

One reason,touched on by others, is that despite constant pressure by the federalists to be as assinine as are their foreign counterparts, Switzerland remains decentralized with great power in the hands of the electorate. So far.

Thus unloading the gold would be the equivalent of a coup d'etat by an elitist band of nincompoops who would be strung from the trees of Zurich, Basel, and Geneva. Could happen, but even idiots in Switzerland know their local history.

Second, and perhaps more important, is the fact that the early leasing deals were very tightly structured. The key to all the leasing deals is the security question. Can and will the gold be returned at conclusion of the lease or on earlier call? The early deals were tightly controlled at

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:43 - ID#256326)
I too am having problems posting to Kitco
Second, and perhaps more important, is the fact that the early leasing deals were very tightly structured.

The key to all the leasing deals is the security question. Can and will the gold be returned at conclusion of

the lease or on earlier call? The early deals were tightly controlled at eeryt level: the CB, dealer, and,

especially, the lessee level. If one wants to concretize it, one could say these were the deals which Barrick

did with JP Morgan as middleman and SNB as lessor.

At the FT Annual gold meeting in Venice two years ago, all the brokers' agents from Azusa Savings &

Loan Gold to Zarzuela Gold Guys were swarming the sessions and enticing all the second and third tier

CB's to get onto the jelly roll of leasing. These are the bagholders. If you read FIASCO or know the

derivatives marketing game you will have vivid images at this point.

Frankly I do not know why the SNB is talking gold down, and the possiblity of stripping is a logical if not

plausible candidate. Another logical,

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:44 - ID#256326)
et enfin........
rankly I do not know why the SNB is talking gold down, and the possiblity of stripping is a logical if not
plausible candidate. Another logical, but not determinable, reason ( at this time ) is that the claims against
Switzerland from Germany's and other's victims whose wealth was held in Switzerland may be denominated
in gold but payable in US dollars. Think on it.
( Finally, I cannot resist an observation I have not posted for more than a year with regard to the holocaust
victims issue. If one has funds in a California bank, and one does not contact the bank formally and in
writing for five years, the funds devolve to the State of California. Both the Swiss and California
procedures are inexcusable. )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:44 - ID#257148)
Can ya hear in the distance the fife and drum? Or perhaps the bagpipes' skirl?

by Henry Lawson

But not in vain those diggers died. Their comrades may rejoice
For o'er the voice of tyranny is heard the people's voice;
It says: 'Reform your rotten laws, the diggers' wrongs make right,
Or else with them, our brothers now, we'll gather to the fight.'

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:45 - ID#307360)
Gianni Dioro - 20:41 - Argentina

For what it's worth, James Dale Davidson of "Strategic Investment" and "The Sovereign Individual" fame could not agree more with the logic of moving to Argentina.

He notes that based on government figures the average American 30 year old couple will pay $320,000 in lifetime Social Security Taxes and receive $450,000 in benefits representing a 1.2% rate of return. ( I love to know corresponding figures for Canada!! ) Depending on the assumptions used the return can in fact be negative.

By moving to Argentina/Chile you can in effect privatize your pension and as he states it - What would you prefer, $450,000 or $450,000,000?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:47 - ID#340302)
THOUGHTS...(By Special Request of TYoung)
...for those analytical individuals who are asking themselves these thought-provoking questions in the deep, still darkness of the night:

1 ) What will be the negative effects on both the general industrial equities and bonds markets when the U.S. government is compelled finally to raise interest rates within the next several weeks?

2 ) Given that in the past several weeks, gold and gold stocks have firmly re-established their negative beta ( or contrarian path ) to general industrial equities, then where would most rational equities investors wish to park their monies should bonds and industrial equities tank?

3 ) What populist perception did the U.S. mutual funds hope to create in de-indexing gold stocks on Friday and redirecting investment funds into the bond market?

4 ) What prompted the Swiss National Bank to announce abruptly on Friday once again its intended sales of 50% of its gold reserves given that it has been silent about the matter for half a year? If it truly intends to sell its gold, why does it keep making extremely prominent public announcements in advance of such sales, knowing full well that such announcements can only drive down the ultimate price it will receive for this gold? Does such behavior seem rational if it wishes to maximize its gold sales revenues?

5 ) What country in Asia is slowly selling off its enormous pile of U.S. treasuries in order to provide crucial support for its rapidly deteriorating economic system? Moreover, what same country is trying to decide where to park its future investments in order to maximize the financial returns of those investments? Finally, what country has just opened itself up to American investment banks and is now accepting American advice on the best investment targets for those newly repatriated treasuries' monies? What key investments do you think these American investment banks are promoting...are they bonds, general industrial equities or precious metals/precious metals stocks? If these American institutions promote bonds and equities and disparage precious metals, then what would the recipients of this advice think if both bonds and general industrial equities were tanking while precious metals and PM stocks were soaring?

6 ) Why would the Swiss National bank wish to talk down the price of gold? Is the ostensible reason ( devaluation of its currency ) a compelling one? In fact, what might be the consequences of Switzerland actually selling off half its gold reserves? Could this not result in a complete trashing of the Swiss Franc ( rather than mere nominal devaluation ) given that most countries, institutions, and individuals hold Swiss Francs owing to their 50% gold-backed security? In such an event, does it really make any sense for Switzerland to contemplate such a sale for even one moment?

7 ) Is it conceivable that Switzerland and several other central banks have loaned out gold ( on paper ) well in excess of their actual gold reserves? Moreover, compounding this problem, is it possible that gold speculators have sold quantities of gold ( on paper ) well in excess of their financial wherewithal to repurchase ( or their ability to locate ) equivalent gold quantities at current price levels or higher? If the two preceding scenarios are accurate, then does it then become understandable why it is imperative to the financial health of certain central banks and institutional speculators that the price of gold must tumble?

8 ) Finally, what would be the consequence to the price of gold if a consortium of individuals or institutions were to demand immediate physical delivery of a nice little bundle of gold previously purchased? Moreover, just who would contemplate making such a demand?


So, have you figured out the puzzle yet?



(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:48 - ID#256326)
Since the issue you inquire about is politically incorrect at Kitco, kindly email me at my forwarding address:

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:48 - ID#202123)
I've been reading here for a couple of months, but still can't figure out what IMHO means. Can someone explain. This is an excellent site and I have learned alot--- thanks.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:50 - ID#34857)
aurophile (I too am having problems posting to Kitco) ... Same here.
Kitco forgot my password tonight and I had to ask HAL to send it to me. Also, when I logged on, it defaulted to short text. Maybe it was looking for EL OTRO and got distracted, Si?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:50 - ID#288369)
@aurator.....diggin' the diggers.......
Blow the bugle.....cappy!

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:52 - ID#256326)
IMHO stands for "in my humble opinion", but it "means" that if you were as smart as I am you would think the same as I....;- ) ) )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:53 - ID#17796)
F*-thank you my friend
Now all can consider. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:53 - ID#34857)
weiser (question)
In My Humble Opinion.

Welcome aboard, weiser.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:54 - ID#256326)

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 - ID#60253)
Mr TYoung:
Please read and consider this thinking person, as many do read your thoughts!

One must take this thought into consideration when deciding weather to hold dollars or the Euro. "The United States Government does not hold any reserves against it's currency". Truly, this can only be the case of the world reserve money. Indeed, all other currencies have reserves of US$ to back them, yet only the dollar has nothing! Yes, the USA does hold many billions in foreign exchange, to use in the defense of maintaining exchange rates against the dollar. However, these holdings are not reserves.
When the US government does not take in enough taxes to meet expenses, it sells treasury debt to make up the difference. When no one bids for this debt at an "acceptable" interest rate, the Federal Reserve bank buys the debt, outright! It gives printed cash to Washington and then, "holds the new treasury debt ( bond ) as backing for the issued cash!
Everyone understands the implications of this. Or do they? In reality, when the US government needs money, it doesn't sell debt! It "TRANSFERS" the obligation of it's citizens to pay future real production ( taxes ) as a "backing" for it's newly printed currency! As this process has been going on for decades, it has built up a debt of "real production payments" that it's citizens can never pay. Further, as the world reserve, this currency is held thru proxy "by every single person on this planet" that uses paper to trade anything!
It is true, that in times past when a currency is inflated ( over printed ) to a point of only 10% real gold backing, the government could revalue gold 90% upward and the currency was 100% backed again! A terrible blow to the holders of this paper, but at least the money system survived! Today, the worlds currency, the US$, by default, would require a gold price of many, many thousands to back it without using it's citizens as collateral! The only problem with this is the US gold stock is so small, that even at $10,000/oz, a large deflation would be necessary to decrease the outstanding US currency to this gold backing level!

Now, consider the Euro. It will have much real gold backing from the beginning. Even at 10% to 30%, the Euro will be the equivalent of a 100% gold backed dollar, when the world comes off the dollar standard! The selling of old dollar reserves, alone will reprice gold in US$ terms of at least $6,000/oz! It's present interbank reserve value.

Read the BONN report again:

""BT 1 APR 1998 BONN
Buba seen transferring gold to new Euro central bank

THE Bundesbank, which must provide about one-third of reserves of the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) , may decide to transfer most of its share in gold, providing a windfall for the German budget, analysts said.

Such a move would raise public confidence by backing the new currency with gold, and would support gold prices by reassuring investors the Bundesbank won't sell excess reserves on the market, an analyst said.

In addition, the transfer would be recorded at market prices, whereas the gold is now valued at less than one-third its market value. That would mean a multibillion-mark paper gain the government could book against debt.

"It would be a neat move," said Alison Cottrell, economist at PaineWebber International in London. "There's the psychology factor of the ECB holding gold, the government would benefit from a revaluation and it should, at the very least, put a floor under the gold price."

The European Central Bank will go into operation on Jan 1, the same day the euro becomes the currency for an expected 11 nations. Germany, because it's the European Union's largest economy and most populous country, will have to provide about one-third of the 50 billion Ecus ( S$86.5 billion ) the new bank will need in its role to set monetary policy.

The Bundesbank, Europe's largest holder of gold, has around 95 million ounces, valued on its books at 13.7 billion marks ( S$11.9 billion ) . The market value is about 55 billion marks.

A Bundesbank spokesman wouldn't comment on what the central bank's plans are, saying that won't happen until the member states for monetary union are named and the members of the European Central Bank are appointed. -- Bloomberg""

Mr. Young,
The German CB will not be selling gold to the new ECB for dollars! This "TRANSFER" will be in terms of "German Mark reserve requirements" that will soon be the "German Euro currency reserves"! Soon, European oil purchases will be made in, partial gold backed Euro's that "in US dollar terms", will be the same as 100% gold backed currency! As Another would say: Gold and oil will never flow in the same direction!

you think long and hard on this: in USA , this paper currency, it show not the true wealth of persons assets!

Thank You

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 - ID#257148)
imho = in my humble opinion

can we have a FAQ page to direct neophyte kitco posters to please?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 - ID#267298)
IMHO - In My Humble Opinion, I too not long ago asked the same question....

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:04 - ID#20748)
Swiss gold
A recent article on the Op Ed page of NY Times spoke up against immigration reforms that would limit new high tech recruits for U.S. industry. It said current rules allow U.S. companies to attract top ten percent talent and brains from around the globe. Countries with no immigration culture are limited to the top ten percent of their own populations. Thus placing them at a disadvantage. Switzerland is an example.

Also, word on the street is the Swiss are vastly over rated as financiers. Witness the utter confusion in the matter of the Nazi gold and the debacle at UBS.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:05 - ID#17796)
Translated-the result is to reduce the debt. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:13 - ID#256326)
The US does not "back" its currency with specific reserves as other nations do ( of necessity ) as a matter of policy, but it does have the reserves of gold and foreign currency. The German move, if it happens, is simply accounting legerdemain ( ledger-demain? ) , and is no more meaningful in reality than the Federal Reserve's monetizing of US debt.

In the modern system, gold is of far less usefulness to a currency's esssential value than the political, legal, and military "currency" of its issuer.

One wishes the EMU well, but until continental socialism is repudiated, the EMU is a DODO. IMHO.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:13 - ID#210235)
What, is it NPC to discuss your financial analysis methods these days? Not happy days at Kitco. Maybe we should put on the white sheets and
go get everybody who's 'different'.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:14 - ID#17796)
Many here would like more THOUGHTS. Tom

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:19 - ID#210235)
@Swiss sell their gold?
If it's true, and I've read it over and over, that the Swiss will have to vote on the gold sale Canton by Canton, well, it just won't fly. The banks may be up against the wall, but the people are as stubborn as any on the planet.

I used to hang out in Appenzellerland ( German sector ) and get zapped by my California friends for doing so. They STILL haven't given women the vote ( as of 1990 for sure, when I was last there ) . The men vote in the public square, smoking these enormous pipes that they only use on voting day. They insist there's not enough room for the women. These guys go their own way. Give up their gold? Might as well as them to give up their 500 year old democracy.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:25 - ID#257148)
iconoclasts R US


G'day. I musta missed aztec's questions, please tell me where I can find them. Don't like the sound of PCorrectness@kitco. No I don't. Uh uh.

Who then holds the world's CB gold? Are You suggesting that the US does not hold the 7,500 odd tonnes it claims?

Has an Asian Bank/entity cornered the physical gold? Apologies for so many questions. Quite a forum here eh?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:27 - ID#255151)
EMU Question

Ok, let's say the EMU is 10% Gold backed. How do you know that in a year or two the CB of Europe won't change the rules in mid-stream. What's to stop them, say in the year 2000, from deciding that the EMU will only be 5% Gold backed? How firm is this promise?

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:27 - ID#210235)
@A moment of caring.
For Edinboro, where I walked as a child barefoot in the creek from my Aunt's to the neighbor's farm to pet the dairy cows, as the roads were "too dangerous for children".

For Edinboro, where we enjoyed summer picnics at the lake. Where I had my first sailing lesson and fell in love with the teacher.

For Edinboro, where we'd drive down to the dances on Friday nights to hear Bartok and Bach riffs blended into R&B by genius fingers, but the dancers loved it, whether they knew or not what they heard.

For Edinboro, where my Siamese cat discovered the joy of becoming a barn cat, and thus empowered, never more deigned to enliven my little home.

For Edinboro, where my cousins, a high school teacher and School Board member, must try to pick up the pieces of shattered lives and sorrowing children.

I don't get it. Don't understand. Can't contemplate the madness which is afflicting us.

Thanks for letting me share. BBL

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:27 - ID#202123)
IMHO---Thanks to the replys. :)
It's great to hear other people who feel as I do.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:34 - ID#20748)
Swiss gold
It has been said, the French would sell the Louvre before they sell their gold. Since the Swiss have no Louvre, it can be safely said they will sell their mothers before they sell their gold.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:35 - ID#60253)
The Swiss, not dumb! There will come a time when gold and Euro are as "the same". Not in price or value, but as used for "real money". The Swiss will sell, just not as you think "sell". In that time, gold will be "transferred" to other Cbs as money or real reserves.
Money is not what you afford, you earn it! In the near future, gold money will buy more than dollar money, much more! It is as to compare a one dollar bill to a hundred dollar bill, both money, just one buys more!
Many think the only way gold can rise in dollar terms is if USA prints to many! Truly, they have printed to many already. Gold will rise in dollar terms, many thousands even if treasury inflates currency no more. This rise in price will cost London much! You have seen the Bank of England report of gold that does not come home?
We watch this new gold market together, yes?

Thank You

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:37 - ID#256326)
Aurator aurelius
It just had to do with starry eyes and starry skies....and not deep in the heart of Tejas. Not to worry.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:42 - ID#22956)
go Hardaway ;- )

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:43 - ID#17796)
Your THOUGHTS are welcome by many-keep it up. They are of interest and make for much pondering. Tom P.S. please address me by Tom if you can

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:44 - ID#228128)
Veneroso Gold Watch Fax freebe 2 month subscription
Why wait for Canarc. I got the note below by e-mail and thought I'd pass it on. See below:

Gold is currently on the way up and to keep you informed, STEPPE GOLD
( ) has arranged a free two month trial of the
VENEROSO ASSOCIATES publication 'GOLD WATCH FAX SERVICE' for people on its
email list.

Here are some comments from the latest newsletter:

"As you well know the gold market recently made highs for the year. We
have been expecting this kind of action since January 14th and believe it
is a prelude for bigger things to come. Our sources tell us that a tranche
of central bank selling is still hitting the market but that its weeks are
numbered. A number of producers have been covering their hedges the past
couple of months in anticipation of the cessation of major central bank
selling. Because of the central bank selling it has been fairly easy to
cover. When it ends, it could be very difficult and might produce swift
upward price movement."

"In our opinion the dark days of the gold market are behind us."

We recommend this service to you as being one of the most informed available.

To subscribe:

Email Bill Murphy
See their website

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:49 - ID#228128)
Now if I get the first two months and Polarbear the next two, Strad two after that, Ray comes in around the holidays, etc. Kitco should be set for life on Veneroso faxes.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:51 - ID#20748)
Can you please post your E-mail address.

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:53 - ID#225283)
Another thinks

I always enjoy the thoughts of thinking men...

My friends in London gave me a heads up on gold moving to 315 by May back in January...

but serious illness precluded me from taking advantage of my "portfolio manager's" advice ( I was told I could very well be dead in six months ) therefore my horizons got very odds of survivial are now much better...I am happy to see that "Au" too seems to be up off its death bed as well.

Another please tell me what you think of the current situation in the world oil markets. Countries such as Mexico are seeing 50% of all government revenues dry up as the price of oil continues to go south...The same must be true of our gold holding friends in the middle east...What are your prognostications???

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:57 - ID#286249)
The Swiss have walked with caution and dignity through this wicked old world
for a thousand years, one prudent step at a time. One finds oneself
spending very little time worrying about their ship of state running
aground in turbulent seas.

Whereas, back in the foolish US: the Economist's "bubble issue" has provided money runners with yet another concern--the April 20th Smithers & Co. report stating that American accounting practices--with regards to
stock options, which allow options to be used to "reward employees without recording them as wage costs...even while tax benefits for issuing options are being counted in net profit..CAUSED PROFITS FOR 100 OF THE LARGEST AMERICAN FIRMS TO BE OVERSTATED BY 42% IN 1995 AND 57% IN 1996."

One more pothole. One can not but wonder at what point the road becomes

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:57 - ID#228128)

(Sat Apr 25 1998 23:58 - ID#304282)
A Fork in the Road?
I think we are at a key point in the equity markets. Recently, we have reached mania stage in the financials and the internet stocks. As you know this specultive orgy usually accompanies key market tops. In the last few trading sessions the financials and especially the internets have backed off their highs significantly.

If the market just corrects here by 5% or so, there will be a lot of room to the upside. This correction has and will continue to take some of the froth out of the market. If this is the case it may be several more months until the crash arrives. It will take that long to regenerate the same kind of wild speculation we have seen recently.

The other possibility is that we have just witnessed the final blowoff that precedes market disasters. This may well be the case, but I don't think the speculation internet stocks lasted long enough for this to be the top. Another factor that supports this being the top is that nobody expects it to be. Almost everyone ( fundmanagers ) SAYS they are cautous, but everyone is fully invested and expects no more than a 3-5% correction. Almost everyone thinks that nothing can go wrong until the fall. Another factor is the recent rise in gold and the bond market testing 6%. Also Korea has been slowly drifting towards its lows again. I can only believe Japan is not far behind it. Just when finally analyst are starting to put Asia behind them, it may jump up ( or down I should say ) and surprise them.

A lot of things point to this being the market top, but I would not be shocked to see us at 10000 in a month. I have gotten to where nothing surprises me. I just laugh.