I think we are at a key point in the equity markets. Recently, we have reached mania stage in the financials and the internet stocks. As you know this
specultive orgy usually accompanies key market tops. In the last few trading sessions the financials and especially the internets have backed off their highs
significantly.

If the market just corrects here by 5% or so, there will be a lot of room to the upside. This correction has and will continue to take some of the froth out of the
market. If this is the case it may be several more months until the crash arrives. It will take that long to regenerate the same kind of wild speculation we have
seen recently.

The other possibility is that we have just witnessed the final blowoff that precedes market disasters. This may well be the case, but I don't think the speculation
internet stocks lasted long enough for this to be the top. Another factor that supports this being the top is that nobody expects it to be. Almost everyone (
fundmanagers ) SAYS they are cautous, but everyone is fully invested and expects no more than a 3-5% correction. Almost everyone thinks that nothing can
go wrong until the fall. Another factor is the recent rise in gold and the bond market testing 6%. Also Korea has been slowly drifting towards its lows again. I
can only believe Japan is not far behind it. Just when finally analyst are starting to put Asia behind them, it may jump up ( or down I should say ) and surprise
them.

A lot of things point to this being the market top, but I would not be shocked to see us at 10000 in a month. I have gotten to where nothing surprises me. I
just laugh.

GO GOLD!!

REPLY:

Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:13

aurophile ( ANOTHER ) ID#256326:

The US does not "back" its currency with specific reserves as other nations do ( of necessity ) as a matter of policy, but it does have the reserves of gold and foreign currency. The German move, if it happens, is simply accounting legerdemain ( ledger-demain? ) , and is no more meaningful in reality than the Federal Reserve's monetizing of US debt.

Sir,

This "matter of policy", it is without reason? If US$ is reserve for all other currencies, how can other currencies be held as reserve for US$? When one ask question, "does chicken back egg, or egg back chicken ", a good reply comes as "matter of policy? Yes?

You state:

" In the modern system, gold is of far less usefulness to a currency's essential value than the political, legal, and military "currency" of its issuer."

Sir,

Fifty years of modern history do not show this to be true. Political, legal and military "currencies" do come and go with the "Seasons", but "gold currency" did keep promise for citizens of changing times!

Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:27

Auric ( EMU Question ) ID#255151:

Ok, let's say the EMU is 10% Gold backed. How do you know that in a year or two the CB of Europe won't change the rules in midstream. What's to stop them, say in the year 2000, from deciding that the EMU will only be 5% Gold backed? How firm is this promise?

Sir,

When physical gold trades by side of EURO, the rules will hold even at three fourths stream!

thank you

The citizens of the world are beginning to withdraw their "willing
suspension of disbelief"; your articulation of the concern that we
can not necessarily 'trust' their word is the Gold Franc's
raison d'etre! {:- )

I hope the shock 0f $30,000 won't be too much of a strain. I'm glad you'll be around to see it and hope you are rewarwaded for your foresight!

REPLY:

Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:53

PrivateInvestor ( Another thinks ) ID#225283:

Another please tell me what you think of the current situation in the world oil markets. Countries such as Mexico are seeing 50% of all government revenues dry up as the price of oil continues to go south...The same must be true of our gold holding friends in the middle east...What are your prognostications???

Sir,

We are close to "much change". The oil reserves of the middle east show a history of value delivered for currencies of "broken promises"! The supply of oil was never the problem, only the "market of oil" in "what kind of money" that caused much distrust. Today, many try to understand oil thru a currency that cannot offer a final payment of true value. I tell you, supply and demand mean nothing in this relm. The "fight", is to bring oil down in US$ terms, then convert to an "open" partial gold payment. With gold priced correctly, oil would be very cheap for western, non producers. But, the owners of "local reserves" as Mexico, would suffer as gold would not be allowed for payment to them. The Euro, it could be the result of this war.

If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?

Much is still as "up in air", we watch for a while.

I must be gone for a time.

Thank You

Do you think Gresham's Law applies to accounting standards and practices ? The bad driving out the good ? Does Wall Street have the Asian Income Statement and Balance Sheet Disease ?

Are you logged on ...If so how are things on your side of the world?

Corporate hedging will cease within the European Community when the Euro finally is fully adopted.

Also indiviguals playing the currency game for higher interest rates and possible gains on conversion will find their playing field narrowed considerably.

This will remove currencies in a goodly amount as competition to gold as an investment medium. Add to that falling markets and the probable fall in the US dollar and gold should do very well.

Just as, last year, JTF betrayed his nom du guerre "Another" by sharing the consistent mispelling of "noone", before "noone" migrated into kitco's lexicon, so Another has twice mispelt "relm". The only other poster, that I can find, who has made this same mispelling is --- Tzadeak Date: Thu Jan 22 1998 20:08.




dust in the wind ( y )

Do you happen to knwo the call letters of Southwestern Gold Corp? It was mentioned in J Davidson's recent Strategic Investments.

Heh, heh . . .

Saw your earlier post about getting a Liberian diplomatic passport. Privacy advocates recommend getting these sorts of passports from time to time, but let me relate just how much weight a passport from a third world banana republic carries in some quarters:

When I was a boy growing up in West Africa, we would travel to Europe from time to time, and one time we made our way to London on a milk run flight that passed through Conakry, capital of the Republic of Guinea, a neigbour of Liberia.

When we arrived we got in line behind a Guinean diplomat. This fellow didn't get to go through a special customs reception, he had to get in line with all the other disembarking passengers. He was very well-dressed and carried a diplomatic pouch from the Republic of Guinea. When his turn came up, the customs officer asked him to open the pouch- and he refused and raised a great fuss about diplomatic immunity.

The officers ( others intervened ) kept insisting that he open the bag, and after a great deal of arguing back and forth, one of the officers grabbed his bag and unzipped it. When he spread it open, it was full of beautiful watches. I don't know what happened after he went off to explain himself to the officers. Maybe he was faking it, but it was certainly an instructive lesson on how much clout very backward countries have. It's only diplomats from countries that matter who go through special exits, and don't have their bags inspected.

If you're going to get a second passport get one from a country that actually has some international respect. Also- get one from a country that you could plausibly be from.

Steve

Too late for the weather forcast,huh---Will Steve Weagle ever get one right?....take care,eh!

on the "Euro" site, the accepted new symbol for the Euro ( a capital
C with an equal sign through the center ) revolves and slowly becomes
what appears to be--deluded me--a 1 Euro gold/silverish coin thingy.
Would someone please pop over there a take a look?
http://europa.eu.int/euro/

Interesting detective-work~~~~hmmmmmmmmmm

nytol~~~~~~~

Saturday April 25, 7:55 am Eastern Time

Stanbic Dubai office banks on gold trade

By Hilary Gush

DUBAI, April 25 ( Reuters ) - Standard Bank London officially launched its Dubai representative office on Saturday
to capitalise on growing demand for direct imports of South African gold into the Gulf Arab emirate.

Conrad Strauss, chairman of the bank's parent Standard Bank Investment Corp ( SBCJ.J ) ( Stanbic ) , told a news
conference direct imports of South African gold into Dubai grew to 54 tonnes in 1997 from 13 tonnes the year
before. ``My impression is that figure will be significantly improved upon this year.''

``There will be no let-up in demand for gold from India,'' Rhodes said, forecasting consumption of around 800
tonnes this year. The World Gold Council ( WGC ) producer group puts Indian demand in 1997 at a record 737
tonnes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980425/
emirates_s_1.html

HighRise

l

brain is still functioning correctly. Goodnight!

Rob, Thanks for all the good info!!!

and the list of 'references' is long and detailed, as the vanishing ( ed ) Bix 6 accounting firms have 'discovered'. Human nature is a remarkable
constant! I am also convinced that the recent spate of 'surprise' bank
mergers is an 'accounting/derivative' collapse. And there is one august bank that can't find a partner! Some very nasty stuff flying toward
the windshield.

Weisner--go back to the following post on the afternoon of April 10 for more of these gems:

Date: Fri Apr 10 1998 13:18
sam ( robnoel ) ID#286279:
Copyright  1998 sam/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

PI - I'll search the info for you and post. Give me a few minutes.

Thank you!

It is SWG. You can get quotes from Yahoo with SWG.TO

You always mention my "favorite" things. Never see it coming when these explode. The flux will become chaos. Tom nite all

It looks gold and silver to me.

Good to see you back posting.


goodnight.

basis. It shows which gold stocks perform best on a percentage basis.

Good luck.

If you were to pick three NYSE listed stocks that would preform the best between 5-11-98 & 6-5-98 which stocks would you select and why?

http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT/gldslv.htm

I do not follow this company, but there is some favourable commentary over the last year at www.canada-stockwatch.com. This is an excellent site for Canadian stock info because it not only includes news releases but also references in newspapers, newsletters, etc.

The company's website is www.swgold.com.

Good luck!

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 01:15
SDRer__A

But take alook at these euro coins:

http://europa.eu.int/euro/default.asp?lang=en

5 out of 8 at least look like shiny gold ( last two look like they have silver too ) .


I am tired and must sleep.

goodnight
But alas they have 7 notes also.

I read the article you recomended, it was very interesting. My problem is in finding charts that look like yours. I have looked at dozens and have narrowed down to a few. The Kitco one seems to come closest to yours. Perhaps it would be better to make my own? I hope you found the right riding school for your daughter, she will love it. I taught school for 35 years and through this raised about 16,000 children. They are great aren't they.

"As a group, those 100 companies reported $182 billion in net profit in 1996. Smithers estimates that those companies' true profit, if options were to be treated as a current expense, was only $116bn--
and that such corporate icons as Bristol-Myers Squibb, Hewlett-Packard, Intel and Microsoft would have booked LOSSES rather than profits had their income statements reflected the cost of options."

"...Profits would be about 36% lower than government statistic
report...".

The problem being that the good go down with the bad, yes? Very dicey market methinks! {:- ) )

Goodnight all.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH..Great site!

Thor, Crazytimes & IDT thanks for the response. My dad receives Davidson's newsletter and asked me about the company. He was interested in the planned operations in China. I'll check it out, details at ten.

Please--just logged on to catch your last post. My question to you is this. When you say that the new value of the US$ in relation to gold will be as a $1.00 bill to a $100.00 bill are you thereby suggesting that goold will revalue the US $1.00 by a factor of 100 to 1? As I reckon, should that be the case $300.00 gold will soon be valued as $30,000.00 gold, 100 times $300.00. Is this correct, sir? Please reply and thank-you for your consideration!

We have the copper-look
the brass-look
and the bi-metallic-look
and no substance

one can't really expect it from Europe...sometimes hope
overwhelms reason.
Goodnight

In case you don't get the reply you want from ANOTHER tonight, I do believe the $30,000 for the US dollar against gold IS the number that as been quoted.

After an 85 hour workweek, perhaps I am getting punchy.
The Privateer lays it on the line tonight.
SDRer, you should combine your thoughts and observations, and compile them.
I think that Mr. ANOTHER is stating the same-old-same-old. I found the spellcheck mighty interesting.
Mr. ANOTHER's cryptic comments of tonight, have been the subject, here, for several days.
Wow, even mr.f* has been getting a trifle pedantic with we hoi-polloi.
IDCIB ( past tense ) M.
And, I am trying to help my friends, but, they don't care.
The Phillipics, yet, what good is an aurator?
This past week's postings from y'all have been great;excepting; lack of teddo jokies and promey.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER19.html

Only three gold stocks on the Aussie exchange closed at 52 week highs on Friday--Plutonic, Nuigini ( which owns 17.5% of Lihir ) and LIHIR! UP 90% since Jan. 14! VENGOLD UP 92.3%! Sure beats the heck out of the XAU!

Microsoft would have booked LOSSES rather than profits had their income statements reflected the cost of options."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I've read this, that the billions Microsoft reports
as annual earnings are essentially distributed to their
employees as compensation in the form of options and
that if the proposed FASB changes to reporting were
adopted that Microsoft would have no earnings.

Noone but Ted solved that one for us.

Mr. ANOTHER should read the Easter missal from the Sage of the Sea, The Brain of Bretton.

Somehow got deleted from the post.

aurator, Mr FAQ, you are the one that could build on this thing, keep it up-to-date, alive, growing, kewl. Anybody else agree?
````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Compiled by an unkown Kitcoite:

AAMOF As A Matter Of Fact

AAR At Any Rate

ADN Any Day Now

AFK Away From Keyboard

AG Silver also Alan Greenspan

APEC Asian Pacific Economic Co-op
http://www.apectariff.org

ASAP As Soon As Possible

AU Gold

BAC By Any Chance

BAK Back At Keyboard

BBIAF Be back in a few

BBL Be Back Later

BBML Be Back Much Later

BBS Be back soon / shortly

BIS Bank of International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland, the central bank of central banks

BMG Buy More Gold or ticker symbol for Battle Mountain Gold Co.

BOJ Bank of Japan

BRB Be Right Back

BTW By The Way

CBS Central Banks

CU L8R See You Later

CYA See Ya also Cover Your A__

DD Durban Deep

EOT End of transmission

FAQ Frequently asked questions or a document that answers frequently asked questions

FED Federal Reserve Bank

FOAD  F--- Off And Die

FRB Federal Reserve Bank ( 12 of them )

FTP File transfer protocol

FWIW For whatever it's worth

GAL Get A Life

GIGO Garbage In Garbage Out

GMTA Great Minds Think Alike

GOL Groaning out loud

GS Goldman Sachs

GTRM Going To Read Mail

GR8 Great

HTH Hope This Helps

HTTP Hypertext transfer protocol; the Internet utility which enables the World Wide Web to link multiple resources together

IAIYH "It's all in your head"

IMF = International Monetary Fund
http://www.imf.org/

IMHO In My Humble Opinion

IRC Internet Relay Chat.

IRL In Real Life

KUTGW Keep Up The Good Work

LBMA London Bullion Market Association

LOL Laugh ( ing ) Out Loud

LRF Little Red Flag

LTNS Long Time No See

MA Moving Average

MEGO My Eyes Glaze Over

MITI Ministry of International Trade and Industry

MOF Ministry of Finance

MorF Male or female

MYOB Mind Your Own Business

NWO = New World Order

OSPTM-- One super power too many.

OZ Australia, ounce

PGM Platinum Group Metals ( Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium )

PM Precious Metals

Plz please

POG price of gold

POO Price of oil

POS price of silver

PPT Plunge Protection Team

PT Platinum

ROTFL Rolling On The Floor Laughing

ROTFLOL Rolling on the Floor Laughing Out Loud

ROTFLMAO Rolling On The Floor Laughing My 'Anatomy' OFF

ROFLWTIME Rolling On Floor With Tears in My Eyes

RR Robert Rubin

RTC Resolution Trust Corp

RTFM Read The F-g Manual

SA South America, South Africa

SDR = Special Drawing Rights
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/FT/usrgsdr/usercon.htm

SEA = South- East Asia

SOS Same ol Sh!t, Sh!t on ( a ) Shingle

TA Technical Analysis,

TIA thanks in advance

TTFN Ta-Ta For Now!

utes Utilities

WB World Bank

WJBC Bill Clinton

XAU,GOX = Gold Stock indexes

:-v talking puppet head

: ) smile

:D smile/laughing/big grin

; ) wink

:x my lips are sealed

:p sticking out tongue

: ( frown

:' ( crying

@~ rose @@@

: ) marge simpson

#: ( bad hair day

~''',,"",,"c crocodile

=|: ) } Uncle Sam

%*@:- ( hung over

%-6 brain-dead

( -: left handed

( 8-o mr. bill!

*:o ) Bozo the clown

/:-| Mr. Spock

8- ) excited/wearing glasses

8:- ) glasses on forehead

:, ( crying

:-$ mouth wired shut

:-% banker/Snidely Whiplash

:-& tongue tied

:-* eating something bitter/sour

:-9 licking lips

:-/ skeptical

:-0 orator/yelling

:-1 bland face

:-7 wry statement

:-? smoke 'um peace pipe

:-@ screaming

:-[ really bummed

:-S incoherent/bizarre statement

:-x lips are sealed

:-` spitting out chewing tobacco

:-t cross

;- )
wink

@= nuclear war

$- ) opportunity

ersel
what good is an aurator?

well, I'm cheap, as in I'm good for nothing.

but gold, that's cheap too, and it's good as gold.

I hear people every day here saying "good as gold." It has come to mean OK, or I understand. Every day I hear it, warms my cockles it does.

sam
Always happy to answer any questions I can. But Bart has better facilities, i suspect, than mois,to set up a FAQ page and I have to sleep too.

BTW ALL
to repeat one of my earlier questions.. How likely is it that my Morgan silver dollars from the 1880's are from Comstock, and how do I tell where they were minted?

unkown = bashful

Bashful Kitcoite: Please step forward and claim the darn thing.

:- )

Now watch what ya say tonight, mate. Don't empty the bar like last night :- ) . Excuse me, just got something in my eye .- ) Here's Monica-- :-0

Looks like it's just us until Ersel wakes up.

Do you know the etymology of noone ( no one ) ?

You may be cheap but you're not easy !

auric,

all the President's girls

:-0

:-0

:-0

:-0

nite

Yes but now most are

:-X

:-X

:-X

I'm kinda surprized to read so many insomniacs on a this time in the U.S.

Here's a serious question re: ANOTHER's remarks. How do us common folk defend ourselves against the devaluatin of all non gold backed currancies? Obviously we can't go 100% in gold. What about the money in your pocket ?

You been up all this time?

Not insomniac, nite owl, El Tecolote.

Get some bags of junk silver, dimes on up, maybe some real copper pennies too?

I quit drinkin' too. No mas. Honesto.

Are they gonna turn on the lights?

sam
etymology of noone
on Nov 05 5:28, GUM SHU posted that Another consistently mispelt noone, and discovered that JTF also consistently mispelt noone. The conclusion is obvious Dr Watson. JTF = NOONE. He still denies it.


Now here is something interesting, I once had the complete works of Conan Doyle available for searching, demonstrating a magnificent Document Imaging/OCR system called MARS ( several years back ) You may recall that Dr Watson suffered from an old wound from the campaign in Afghanistan. Thing is, Conan Doyle forgot from book to book where Dr Watson was shot. In one story Watson was shot in the left shoulder, in ANOTHER story he was shot in his leg and a third "in a limb."


silence is golden, eh aurator?

A few posters consistently use "noone" ( instead of "no one" ) . ANOTHER is one who does this. I don't think he was the first, though. I'll have to defer to aurator on that question. ( Did Big Trader also use "noone"? ) I gotta admit, I'd like to know if ANOTHER has another identity at Kitco. Sort of like the Clark Kent/Superman thing. I personally suspect that he may be Gloomy Gus.

I goofed, last post, JTF = ( NOONE ) = ANOTHER

Doyle must have suffered from CRS Syndrome, I have it too.

Can't remember sh!t.

Gnarly, dudes, thanks!

I'm outta here before they turn da lites on. ;- )

auric
What happened to gloomy gus anyway? can't say I enjoyed the fetid pall he cast over the site. Did he jump out a window?

G'nite/G'morning all.

Just heard on the news that a new pill has been released in the USA that helps guys get their..err...ahhh...you know...thingy UP. Most of the guys coming into the drug stores claim that they don't really need it, but just want to add a bit more UP to their lives.

WELL--if you lived in Australia and invested in gold mining shares--YOU WOULDN'T NEED IT!!! Read my mate Bill Buckler's comments about Aussie gold shares and 'bottoms are in' -- as if they ever went out. Aussie gold shares UP 67.10% since $278 gold. Aussie goldbug's wives are saying "What!! AGAIN!!???!!!"

http://www.the-privateer.com/welcome.html

thanks. I'm usually up by 3am local. Gotta go....goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

Re His Gloominess--Nah, last I heard, he sold all his Gold and invested it in Microsoft.

A fine line, indeed, from my catacombs:

http://www.woza.co.za/lbma.htm
February 20, 1997


In his argument against the motion, Dr Birch said accelerated product
selling was a contributory factor to market weakness. "Mining companies
are selling far more gold than they produce," he commented. "They have
created a dangerous dealing house environment where risk taking is
applauded. But for hedging, the gold price would be much higher."
LBMA chairman Alan Baker said: "Gold hedging is a topical issue, as it
affects the price of gold and impacts on gold producers' share prices.

The debate was of great value in bringing some of the arguments for and
against the practice into the public arena. The dividing line between
hedging and speculation is a thin one. But not to hedge is to speculate."

bb

G'day again. Interesting thing this XAU. Chart--that is. Have looked at the latest beastie and come to these conclusions:

--possible retracement to 85-88 area
--has breached an upside barrier this past week
--potential for explosive upside

But then what do I know?? I don't trade XAU shares--so don't listen to me. Just get your ruler out and place it at about 85-86 and across previous recent tops--interesting , huh??

/www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

Here is my post of a few days ago when everyone was busy committing Hara Kiri over the XAU ( when it was much lower and going to the 60's, according to the xperts ) :

Date: Sat Apr 11 1998 23:14
Nick@C>Nick@C ( More on XAU ) ID#393224:
Copyright  1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Date: Sat Apr 11 1998 20:10
Nick@C ( G'day ) ID#393224:
I don't trade the XAU or its shares. My unbiased comment. When I look at this chart I come to the opposite
conclusion that Glenn does. It looks like UP from here to me. Guess I'll have to go back to chart-reading 101.

Now take out your ruler and put it along the Dec,Jan and Apr highs in the XAU. Note that the action of the past
week is consolidating slightly above this up-trending line. As long as prices stay above that line they are still in
strong uptrend. If that line is pierced on closing below the line, then expect more downside.

Now hold your ruler along that line, use the right hand as a pivot and swivel left hand down to the Jan, Mar lows.
This makes a nice up-trending triangle with a breakout over the past week to the upside. Unless the past weeks
action was a false breakout--the XAU is headed higher.

All my VHO of course.

Oops, here it is.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

That drug is Viagra. Now there's a name that packs a punch. If there were a Gold stock named Viagra Gold, I'd buy it in a heartbeat! The generic name is "sildenafil". There is a similar drug in the works called "forksolin".

Viagra gold?? If it is going up I'll buy it!! I read a story once about the stock market and men's...err..ahhh...libidos...going up and down together. Viagara gold may be the cure!!

Auracious, g'day, mate. What are you doing up?? Thanks for the update on Kitco posting frequency. All I need is another 200 hours to catch up on the past week!!

http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Xweekly.html

I think Bill Buckler's comment about there being a joker in the pack says it all. This time may be different--as the EURO gold announcement is coming up soon. Could be very explosive UP or DOWN depending on gold backing %age. I think the bottom is in and we are up from here, and very possibly explosively up. I am willing, however, to endure a slow zig-zag up with lots of trading opportunities. BTW--when I get my act together, I want to comment about your 'fixed' XAU/spot sell signal. Are you allowing for 'irrational exhuberance' in gold shares??

Read one article about the return of the crisis:

1 ) The unstable politic and financial of INDONESIA will dragged down the rest of the neighbour!

2 ) The finacial of japan

3 ) China reminbi devalueation

4 ) the u.s economy!!

If anyone of them happened,the world will be in full alert!
Sorry for poor grammar and analysis.
Just small JIN...

BTW, BAC BOJ & FED GOL? CYA & BMG.
DJUA LRF IRL TA : ( . WJBC :-v RR?
IMHO IAIYH.

nick, all gentlemen: The ladies may attest to this, or perhaps it is the male sex's better masked secret, but the correlation between rising stocks anhd rising ( well, let's just say it rhymes ) should be apparent. Men being such egotistical, self centered creatures ( as any sane woman will tell you ) , are likely to be brimming with confidence most when they have been successful at some manly exploit. After painting the spare bedroom, or mowing the back yard ( we'll leave the front for next week...it's really HOT out there ) or landing that new account, and, in some very ecstatic and rare instance, having a stock go up a few points. Emboldened by their prowess, men often are stimulated at such junctures to go off in search of the one thing that is their ultimate reason for being and, at the same time, their inevitable downfall...the intimate company of a woman. She, flushed with the feminine excitement of having worked herself into a passionate state by shopping the malls all afternoon, buying three rings on QVC, picking up a barbecued chicken for dinner, and then being plunged into the depths of self loathing and despair by chipping a nail and noticing in the mirror how flat her hair looks, is ripe and ready to have her innate desireabilty confirmed by her man's lust. If her stock portfolio has also seen a good week, then it is assured that they both get lucky ( in the end, profits excite us all ) . Perhaps the biggest fallout from this bull market will be either a population explosion, coming just at the worst time - during the ensuing bear when all these kids have to be raised, and a concommitant increase in venereal disease ( just when we thought we had indiscriminate and unsafe sex..er..licked. I will await research on this matter by kitcoites far more organized and intellectual than myself. I am sure that five posts will not go by before Brother Donald will have the facts, figures, and conjecture on our screens and ready to click on ( ; ) . For those still holding general stocks, I say get it while you can. For goldbugs, it is entirely understandable that your recent plaint o f "not tonite dear, I have a headache," may soon be an excuse of the past. Let us hope. Onward and...yes...upward.

Message decoded. Reply-- BMG before TSHTF

I will skip over the Mike Sheller challenge to respond to you first. Yes, I have worried at length over the irrational exuberance factor for gold stocks. The main problem with using the XAU for any serious study is its short 15 year life, all spent during a gold bear market. That is why Carl is suggesting that a moving average is better. Again, I urge everyone to use these numbers with caution. No one on the planet can be certain how the XAU will act in a gold bull. If we look at the post 1987 and post 1994 periods we may get a clue to the XAU psychology, but only a clue.

I have made a bit of a wager I am apart
of...$15000.00 invested in any NYSE three ( $5000.00
each ) listed stock on the morning of 5-11-98 and
held until June 5th... He with the most valuable picks on the 5th of June wins.

Any suggestions as to some odds on favs that may be undervalued on 5-11 and over valued on 6-5 ???

In searching for information on sex and Bull Markets I have found two URL's perhaps not suitable for this forum. I can send them to you by e.mail. Which would be of the most use to you? Laymans Guide? or Performance timing?

Major Newspaper Headlines
Sun, 26 Apr 1998, 7:08am EDT



BN 4/26 Top Stories From Japanese Newspapers, April 26 ( Update1 )
Top Stories From Japanese Newspapers, April 26 ( Update1 )
( Adds 4 stories in `Others.' )


Top Stories From Major Japanese Morning Newspapers, April 26



Tokyo, April 26 ( Bloomberg ) -- The following stories
appeared in major Japanese newspapers this morning:


Front page:


Toyota to Report 17% Rise in Group Net Profit on U.S. Sales


Toyota Motor Corp. will likely report a 17 percent rise in
group net profit in the year ended March 31 to 450 billion yen
( $3.42 billion ) thanks to strong sales in North America, the
Nihon Keizai newspaper reported, without citing sources. Parent
current, or pretax, profit will be almost flat from last year's
620 billion yen, 4.6 percent below Toyota's November forecast as
domestic sales fell because of downturn in Japanese consumer
spending since the government raised the sales tax 2 percentage
points to 5 percent last April. Parent pretax profit this year
through March 1999 will fall more than 3.2 percent to below 600
billion yen, the first drop in five years, the report said.
( Nihon Keizai ) ( 7203 JP CN )


Kirin to Buy `Around' 50% Stake in New Zealand's Largest Brewer


Kirin Brewery Co. will spend about 100 billion yen ( $761
million ) to buy about a 50 percent stake in Lion Nathan Ltd., New
Zealand's largest brewer, the Nihon Keizai said, without citing
sources. Lion controls over half of the New Zealand market, is in
second place in Australia with a 40 percent share, and is
expanding to China. By taking the stake in Lion, Kirin plans to
establish a foothold in Oceania and China. Lion's net profit rose
14.5 percent to 82.7 million New Zealand dollars in the first
half of the fiscal year through February 1998. ( Nihon Keizai )
( 2503 JP CN )


Industrial Bank of Japan to Call Off Tie-up With Mondex


Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd. said it will call off a trial
of Mondex International Ltd.'s electronic money system in Japan,
freezing investment in the project due to high costs estimated at
more than 1 billion yen per participating bank, the Nihon Keizai
said, without citing sources. Sakura Bank and Asahi Bank said
they'll continue examining the project. IBJ's withdrawal from the
project could hamper Mondex in the race to establish a Japanese
standard for electronic money, the report said. ( Nihon Keizai )
( 8302 JP CN )


Others:
Asian Business Leaders Call for Establishment of Regional Fund

Business leaders from Japan, South Korea, Indonesia,
Thailand, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Taiwan called for the
establishment of an Asia Monetary Fund to support International
Monetary Fund efforts to stabilize the region's currencies, the
Nihon Keizai newspaper reported, citing the Asian Neighbors'
Forum meeting held in Tokyo yesterday. The leaders agreed that
Japan should boost domestic demand to increase imports from Asian
countries. Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Shoichiro Toyoda was
confident Japan will be able to increase domestic demand and help
other Asian countries overcome their economic problems, the
report said. ( Nihon Keizai, p.3; Daily Yomiuri, p.5 ) ( TNI JNECO
ASIA )

My pick is SSC ( Sunshine Mining ) . silver has been lacklustre, and if it is to rally soon from here SSC would time itself nicely with your bet, plus you would have a PM position among your 3 stocks anyhow, which you should because you're at kitco. ALSO - and I know everyone has already put this on their calendars ( if not, please do, so you can elate me or berate me as to how GOOD an astrologer I am, NOT simply BECAUSE I'm an astrologer ) on and around - add a few days before, a few days after - MAY 22, Jupiter conjuncts SSC's Sun. This is a once every 12 year astrological occurance. a significant jolt should be felt. If it turns out negative, well, sorry. But if it is positive, then you'll be close to winning your bet on SSC alone. If the rest of the market tanks, and PM's go up, then you've got it made, unless the other bettors have picked all gold stocks. But even SSC is so nicely leveraged that it would do the trick. IMVHO, of course ( OC ) .

Apologies for the waste of your time and Barts space.
I think that the continued discussions regarding a possible Asian Monetary Fund/Union is of considerable interest to this site and effects the upward trust of the Gold price.

Your post about the Toyota numbers reminds me of my post yesterday about Mazda. The weak yen is masking poor earnings ( or losses ) by Japanese manufacturers. The strong dollar is skewering the numbers when the currency translation is made. These may be Forex profits, not anything to do with improved business conditions.

A "sound" from across the sound!
Zounds! I knew I could count on you. I will forgo your two kind offerings ( you are two kind ) . I might download the wrong material and be subject to confication of some kind of something or other. Please enjoy the sites for me.

BAGHDAD, April 26 ( Reuters ) - Iraq on Sunday again demanded an immediate end to U.N.
sanctions and said statements by its leaders that its foes would pay a heavy price if sanctions were
maintained should be taken seriously.

Culture and Information Minister Humam Abdul-Khaleq Abdul-Ghafur said U.N. Security Council
talks set for New York on Monday on the U.N. arms inspection programme in Iraq over the last six
months should focus only on lifting the sanctions.

``The world and all the just people in it, if they want the relations between Iraq and the Security
Council and the ( U.N. ) Special Commission to stabilise on a basis of justness, they should
immediately deal with the issue of the embargo seriously,'' the minister said.

``They should take seriously the statements issued by the Revolutionary Command Council, the Iraq
leadership ( of the Baath Party ) and the cabinet, and nothing else,'' he added.

On Thursday, Iraq's cabinet said after a meeting chaired by President Saddam Hussein that
Baghdad's enemies would pay a heavy price if the sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of
Kuwait were allowed to drag on.

The Security Council is to discuss on Monday a bi-annual report by Richard Butler, chairman of the
U.N. Special Commission ( UNSCOM ) mandated with dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction, which has said that virtually no progress has been made in arms inspections in Iraq over
the last six months.

Send me your e mail address again, I had some problems with one of my drives and lost some addresses. mistera@interaccess.com

I am thinking of going with a pure PM play...looking for some dividend/x-dividend dates that would play into the timing....

Agreed. I must admit that my focus was not on the Toyota article. My interest is in observing the new currency alliances and trade blocks develope. New lines are being drawn in the sand. Gold and precious metals will play an increased role and provide stability or the perception of stability in all new alliances and currencies, old or new.

JAKARTA, April 26 ( Reuters ) - An Indonesian student movement against President Suharto has
taken a serious turn with a dangerous escalation in violence and a powerful Moslem leader backing
the wave of protests, analysts said on Sunday.

They said sections of the country's powerful military, the bedrock on which Suharto has based his
32-year rule, appear to be quietly supporting students demanding the ageing former general take
responsibility for a ravaging economic crisis and step down.

Students in the city of Medan, on Sumatra island, hurled petrol bombs at police last week after they
were blocked from taking protest rallies to the streets.

Police responded with tear gas and fired rubber bullets. The Jakarta Post newspaper said at least
one demonstrator sustained a gunshot wound.

``There has been shooting, the security forces have admitted that and there will be an escalation,''
said Hermawan Sulistyo, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences.

Student protests against Suharto started in February as the economic crisis bit into the country and
have steadily increased in tempo since then.

On Friday, powerful Moslem leader Amien Rais came out openly in support of the protests.

``I am totally committed to the students' struggle. I have visited them from campus to campus and I
always encourage them to have the moral courage to defeat the regime of Suharto,'' he told Reuters
Television.

``I am excited because there is a strong indication that change will finally come to this country as
indicated by the aspirations of the students from different campuses,'' said Rais, the head of
Muhammadiyah, a Moslem social organisation which claims 28 million members.

``We need a new regime, we need a new government and, of course, we need a completely new
national leadership.

Diplomatic analysts said Rais' support lent a more serious and coordinated note to the student
protests, which have swept campuses across the country but have not really progressed beyond
that.

``He's clearly decided that he's the man of the moment and that this is the moment,'' said one
Western diplomat. ``He might well be right, but I think it remains to be seen though.''

``He is just saying what the people are saying,'' said Sulistyo. ``It's time for a leader like Amien to
say such a thing.''

Suharto has ordered security forces to get tough with student demonstrators if they do not end their
protests, but will be loath to move similarly against Rais, analysts said.

He is well protected by his position as the head of Muhammadiyah and is also believed to be in
contact with several senior military officers, they said.

``There are a lot of factions in Abri ( the Indonesian military ) ...some of whom are quite attracted to
his democratisation agenda or reformist agenda,'' said the diplomat. ``They see for the time being
that Amien Rais is the guy who is taking that forward, is the figurehead.

``In the future, people like Amien Rais will have to be brought into whatever coalition replaces
Suharto.''

It is unlikely there will be a dramatic change any time soon, although Suharto's iron grip on the nation
of 200 million people seems to be slipping at the moment, the analysts said.

The economic crisis, in which Indonesia's rupiah has plummeted, has led to the prospect of years of
pain under economic reforms agreed with the International Monetary Fund. And this financial
turmoil, the analysts said, has dealt what could be a death blow to Suharto's popularity.

Students have said Suharto is responsible for the economic mess, pointing to the legendary wealth of
his family and friends. The allegations are not new, but were largely ignored while Indonesia
prospered in the economic boom across Southeast Asia.

Now, critics say, Indonesia needs political as well as economic reform and Suharto has to go.

``I don't think he any longer commands the support of the vast consensus of the country,'' one
analyst said. ``It's quite a narrow group of people who are supporting him.

Interesting that the USA/IMF/CIA support the removal of Suharto as he is no longer convenient and does not listen to the puppet masters. They have supported the student protests and unrest, only to find that the persons that will replace Suharto will most probably be hard line followers of Islam.

Let me just revise that former observation a bit: Jupiter conjuncts SSC's Sun MID MAY. The 22nd was a bit too late, but by then we will know what's what with this potentially powerful event.

ALL KITCOITES - Mark your calendars for MID MAY for SSC.

I don't think Jimmy Rogers knows sh..t about the gold market. All he can do is rehash Anndy Smith.

Why does Another write like this?

Sir,

We are close to "much change".


Instead of this?

Sir,

We are close to "much change."


He always has the period outside the quote.

The mullahs may be worse than Suharto, but certainly in its current state, Indonesia is having a hard time attracting investors - the corruption is too great. Some sort of change is inevitable.

CRUDE OIL followers may be heartened to expect a set up here for a rally. The earlier gap on the upside due to OPEC news has now been closed. OPEC will disappoiint as usual, and the market is reflecting that. Options running favorably toward puts these days, expect a rise next week, but price must clear 16.15 basis nearest futures. Then resistance comes in between 17-18. Not much of a trading blip. If price can ger thru 18 within a couple of weeks, there is a shot at $20 before major overhead downtrend line comes into play. But I think for now $18 will prove unbreakable. Barely approachable, actually. I am sticking with my forecast for oil rolling along a dull bottom for the rest of the year, with setup for a nice recovery early next year. January may be the time to jump in with both feet, but long term longs on crude or oil shares now may suffer the blahs for quite a while. A surprisingly dull, low oil market will be the story for '98. If crude gets to 18 soon, tightly layered shorting might be the ticket.

Swing chart
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image269.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image269.gif

Dow/Gold ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image270.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image270.gif

XAU/Gold ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image271.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image271.gif

Gold/CRB ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif>http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif

Gold/Silver ratio plus Platinium
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif


Aurator/Auric
The poet's chuffed.

Swing chart
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image269.gif

Dow/Gold ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image270.gif

XAU/Gold ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image271.gif

Gold/CRB ratio
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif

Gold/Silver ratio plus Platinium
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image272.gif


Aurator/Auric
The poet's chuffed.

Have a nice Sunday yall in the Northern/Hem. All is quiet as I look out across the the Mighty Great Southern Ocean on this Sunday night. Glad I am not near the docks and the loading terminals, as we have had a little unrest with the lads in the Water Front Workers Union. Honeymoon is over for most of them.
One more pickle & two more shots of Vodka~~~~ Good night~~~ZZZZZZZzzzzzz~

Silver ready for a big move. As usual, Bill Buckler's charts are the greatest. How you interpret them is another matter. Up or down from here?

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/m-multi.html

OLD GOLD: The gratuitous vitriol toward Jim Rogers mystifies me. Granted the fellow is feisty on camera, but he is really quite an accomodating, available person for one who has proven himself in the markets as not only a consummate professional, but a bit of a legend in his own time ( not that he is ready to wither with age here either ) . I think he knows more about the gold market than some of the perennial bullish commentators at Kitco. In early 1997 I importuned him to buy gold shares and he told me "not yet" on gold. He said, and I quote "Gold is going lower." He was right. I distinctly remember CERTAIN people at kitco insisting that gold was goiing to rally from there, gold stocks were "confirming" this by leading bullion, etc, etc, . I confess that I began to nibble at the spring lows myself. But Jim was adamant, and correct, and when I brought up mining shares with him later in the year he was still negative on gold. So he has been right all along, which seems to indicate he does know "something" about gold, and more than SOME commentators at kitco who have perhaps allowed their prejudices to override their observation of events. The man does not deserve the invective he sometimes gets, and is, among all the visible and mainstream personalities and commentators in the financial area, most compatible with general kitcoite sentiment and philosophy. I find his distinct positions and opinionation to be refreshing and to be respected in this world of dull, witless, and generally vague commentary. Being wrong half the time is not a sin in a field such as this where all conjecture about tommorrow passing for "analysis" is more truly speculation. The man has proven his abilities as an investor. His contacts and sources of information, and the circles in which he travels, are perhaps in great measure more provident of information that those of the average poster here. So it mystifies me as to why this man is so casually villified by those who have barely a fraction of his experience and expertise. Human nature is funny, no?

Mike Skeller


The attitude you described also exists in American politics.

It also seems spread amoung both bulls and bears.

http://www.worth.com/articles/PR0.html

should have said investmment BIKER ( DUH )

Not enough "vodka & pickles".

Mr. Mick: Change is constant,Yes. To think that everyone has only this year realized that the Suharto's are corrupt? Corruption is the only sure thing around the world. Every Govt., in Mexico, Latin & South America; it is a way of life and forms their culture. The British have dignified it beyond recognition and belief. The game is "bigger" than Suharto's corruption and sweet family deals. This Asian "Glitch" is still swelling and a tidal wave from the Pacific is rolling towards the USA. If Indonesia elects hard line conservative Islamic practioners the USA/IMF/CIA would pray for the return of the Suharto's. Some thing about: Better the one you know? But the USA has lost its way regarding foriegn policy and diplomacy.
Good night.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Think I earned ANOTHER vodka & pickle!

http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/forecasts/forecast.cgi?city=Sydney?ovince=Nova+Scotia

http://www.burstnet.com/network.cgi?cat=9&burst=ad2499a

Rob. ANOTHER puts the period after the quotation marks because it isn't a quote. The quotation marks are there to indicate that the words between them are not exactly what is meant. So regarding Another's identity I think we can be sure he has had a "very good" education--- assuming I can remember back to about 1955.

Mr. ANOTHER --

I have studied your posts going back to the beginning ( 10/97 ) , and count myself fortunate for my access to such insight and conjecture.

In your last post ( today 00:39 ) you say, "If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?"

You have discussed at length the situations of key gold players and the factors leading up to such a Gold War.

Question: Re. Gold War -- What specific actions and reactions do you envision? In other words, What possible scenario ( s ) , blow-by-blow, may we look for in a Gold War.

As always, your response is greatly appreciated.

Respectfully, jonesy

Finally, a subject upon which I can speak intelligently ( Joe Englishteacher, me ) .

In most Western writing, nearly all punctuation is contained within the quotes ( except as a rule semi-colons ) :

"I like gold," he said. She said, "I like gold, too." He said, "Go gold!" She said, "Go gold!"; he said, "I just said that!"

However, in the UK ( those guys are always doing things differently ) , they place most punctuation outside the quotes.

As in anything re. written English, there are rules, exceptions to the rules, and exceptions to the exceptions.

FWIW

Just finished watching Jack Van Impe outta Detroit. His highlights
quoting his interpretation of the Bible combined with current news events
& Greespan comments are:
1/ Total financial/market collapse worldwide. All will transpire over the period of one hour.
2/ New World Order instituted via U.N. & the United States of Europe to
be accepted by the masses or forced. Those who reject of course will be
provided lobotomies or killed. ( Year 2000 )
3/ Quotes IBM as now developing the new supercomputer to be used as The Beast.
4/ The Mark-Forehead or Hand
5/ Gold & Silver will do no good as it will be seized.

Ted-U should be safe in ur new abode ( Jack saith )

Well, you've made the prediction about SSC. Will you hang out further on your limb and conjecture as to how far it will go if it shoots the moon? Will it ever see $3.50 again, $7.38, $10.00 or even $15.00? Now THAT would be a story! SSC at $15!

My apologies for not emailing you. It seems that every time I get around to anwering my email list something comes up. I was out on the water yesterday for nearly 11 hours and would still be there if I'd not had a catastrophic failure of my fishing rod and reel. ( No, no giant fish. The reel seat broke. )

I post my email address every now and again gagnrad@hotmail.com but like I said I'm 'way behind in it. Even looking at it, much less answering.

jonesy: I got an English education--once removed-- and the quotation rule was that a real quote should not have anything in it that was not there in the first place --including punctuation. Liberal use of quotation marks to provide sarcasm, an indication that not quite the right words were used, etc-- was encouraged. So I think ANOTHER is the recipient of a English system education. This of course narrows it down to about half of Africa , half of the Orient, 9/10's of Canada, most of the Caribbean and all of the UK.

This is supposedly a true story. As I don't know whether to punctuate inside of out of quotes I'll just vary them.

Lewis Grizzard, the late American humorist told of a speaking tour he'd made to Boston. He was left with some extra time between two engagements so decided to take advantage of it and stop at one of the campus libraries. There are so many colleges in Boston I've forgotton which was the one.

But according to Lewis he stopped a student to ask, "Pardon me, friend. Could you tell me where the library is at?"

The young sage answered, "You are in Boston now and at xyz University. And here at xyz we don't end a sentence with a preposition".

"Oh, I didn't know that", Lewis replied. "Thankyou for correcting me. So set me try again. Where's the library at, @sshole?"

Go gold!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980426/oil_opec_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980425/korea_econ_1.html

anyways all in all a fine showing for the bear to end the week .... If you
thinks this week was sumthin next week should be really excitin :}

I'll bet if someone ( ain't acusin Rubin & co of course ) hadn't sprung the
bondos up to close near their highs I'd bet that we might have just seen
110350 today.... ah well next time gotta factor in the intervention part

somethin to ponder over the weekend as an added bonus to those who
may still think in rational terms ...... the P/E multiple for NASDAQ is now
sumthin like 80X earnings and of course with lousey earnings being
reported lately on the most part it's rising rather quickly! If you were buyin
a business would you pay for 80 years of future earnings????? ....

sumthin is definitely wrong with this picture .... The reallly really big
question of course will be what will Joe Six pack do when he finds out
what he's been investing in and what it is really worth? .....GO BULLS!

If sumthin goes wrong and they start askin the right questions like what's
book value and what share of the EPS will I get if things don;t continue
to go up like they have .... they will be in for not only a rude awakening
but a rather strong lesson about true values

unfortunately TP reason is sumthing that most here have lost faith in
....understandably so as the market has proved time and again that
reason is not rewarded with profits .... that being said however I think
that more and more those that understand such things are starting to fear
the "pricking of the bubble" which must enevitably happen

they said on cnbc that the dow came back into the close. It didn't come
back that much did it?
they don't like to say anything that will make the stock market go down.
They are one way mfs.

the MF industry has turned the public into their own worst enemy .... by
encouraging reinvestment they have suceeded in building up a massive
ponzai scheme .,... inflating values to the n'th degree .... there is no
possible escape from such a prison without disaster .... when the public
demands it's moiney back it won't be pretty

...everyone is so complacent out there...they cant even phantom a
decline...but ..when it comes my guess is that you wont be able to dial
the broker fast enough...i rember the drop of '87..thought my pc was
broken..i actually tapped it a few times...lol

anyways when "they" get done doin to the market what I think they are
gonna do ..... abbacus beads will suffice for most people to count their net worth:}

for the past 30 days now we have been carving out a trading range ...
basically between 1100 and 1140 ... now my expectation is that we will
fall out of that trading range and grope way down from whence we
started all this business ..... I ain't referring to just a minor correction but
the real start of the breakout about 3 years ago

the important factor in the decline to come, will come with the realization
that we will NEVER get back up to where we were

I'm of course jumping the gun here ...most want confirmation of what I
speak ... not that I blame them ...yet with what has transpired over the
past 3 years what constitues confirmation? For now the expectation is
that every time it falls it will return back with a vengence and go higher
..... 5% 10% 20% 40% ???? what is enough to say that the dippies won't
be bargain hunting after a significant drop? ... I'll takes my chances and
be short near what I consider to be the top

I heard my favorite, and always wrong market strategist on Moneyline this
evening.Michael Metz. He is saying the dollar has peaked and it's all
down-hill from here, for the economy and it's not too late to get into GOLD...

i used to think that this Y2K deal was bunk; it ain't; take the IRS ( please )
, as an example. 2 years ago 3 people had a budget of 20 million; now
600 people have a budget of 900 million, all for Y2K


there are now circuit breakers and such that decrease liquidity to zero.
this is something that hasn't existed before past breaks

however, i do believe that we will go no bid on this one; not for months or
weeks though

there are shutdown limits now that were not in place in 87. when has the
gov. EVER done something smart? NEVER is a word i rarely use; but it
applies here

i was short 185 snps on my run in the 87 crash and i remember the
illiquidity. i wonder what will happen when a real break occurs with these
goofy shutdowns in place.

I guess I owe you one lesson this one you should commit to memeory
and read it before you go to bed each night ( before it crashes rather than
afterwards ) in a crash you cannot trade your way out of anything my
friend you are either on the right side or the wrong side and there is no
way to trade it .... you will end the day either a very rich man or a beggar
...so you'd best be on the "right" side ....100 spoos handles will mean
absolutely nothing and any stop you think will protect you won't be worth
a plugged nickel. Do yourself a favor and burn this advice into your
forehead.... there I hope I have now left you with some advice more
precious than anything you have or will hear here:}

a crash is akin to having your house burn down in front of your eyes and
not being able to do anything about it

In financial terms it is trying to squeeze millions of sellers through one tiny
portal and having not one buyer bid for anything out of intense fear that
he might wind upo holding the bag

it is useless to try to project exactly where it would stop it's like trying to
call a top except that you are forced to try to come up with a figure in a
matter of minutes and hours rather than weeks and years ... there is no
time to think and most are just paralysed with fear

no one answers the phone on the floor ....you are just left in limbo with
your ear glued to the radio .... the numbers are changing so fast that you
suspect that your computer screen is on the fritz .... and there is
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING YOU CAN DO

I know what term means, I want to know what you consider the change
from present levels to be a CRASH.. For me a crash is 20-30 percent
down from the highs. Then to become a bear market it must stay down
near that level for at least 6 months.

no one is sure who can pay what .... margin calls are flying left and right
....in a word total chaos

Whether it crashes or not, the most intriguing issue here is how so few
have any idea, concern, or worry about any down move. Remarkable!


there's no rhyme or reason when folks are so scared they won't pay a
plugged nickel for anything

in any event most cannot even afford to pay cause they don't have the
money to buy even if they wanted to

Trying to explain a crash to someone who has never experienced
something of that nature is like trying to explain War to someone who has
lived his whole life in times of peace ... there just ain't no way!

it won't be Ma and Pa who cause prices to cascade downward .... they
weren't the cause back in 87

manias end abruptly.... then all that remains are folks lookin for reasons
why the mania ended abruptly

In reading the correspondance between ANOTHER and others, in particular Mozel, the issue was raised concerning CB gold future / derivatives trading.

The CB gold trading, controlled by the "powers that be" ( "The Bank" )

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html ,

would appear to have had three objectives:

1. Consolidate a gold foundation for the Euro

2. Create a physical void in the market in terms of Mining Companies owing CB physical gold - if the mining conpanies default on the physical,"The Bank" acquires the assets, in particular gold reserves in the ground ( as "The Bank" only lends on the basis of mineable reserves, and not geological resources ) .

3. Creating an up market for an increase in gold "price", thereby further consolidating 2, and resolving "losses" on the derivatives trading.

Two weeks ago I posted a scenario concerning three mining companies who had borrowed from "The Bank" - Pegasus Gold Australia Pty Ltd, Australian Gold Fields, and Consolidated Gold NL. These banks owe "The Bank" some AU$ 50 to 100 million, AU$ 40 million and AU$ 14 million respectively. The total some AU$ 100 million plus. This debt has been built in one to two years.

We know that "THe Bank" had huge resources, and a AU$ 100 plus can be absorbed - but how many times has "The Bank" done this, over what time scale ?

An added scenario is say, that "The Bank" world wide has done this to say 30 companies = AU$ 1 billion plus.

Where would "THe Bank" go from here.... they set the gold price daily, so the simpliest way to resolve their "losses" would be to up the gold price, and have the mineable reserves in the ground ?!

They win on the way down, and on the way up !!!

Anyone want to borrow dollars, to pay back in GOLD.

Why are the "Shorts" called so - is a wanker an owner operator ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980426/japan_econ_3.html
TOKYO, April 26 ( Reuters ) - The huge package to boost Japan's economy will likely succeed in the short-term, but may create even bigger problems ahead, economists say.
``The worst case scenario is that structural reforms will not proceed and there will be an increase in needless state spending,''
``Japan's country rating would be downgraded on bad economic conditions and a rise in budget deficit, which would raise the cost of funding. It's hellish,''

Now wait a minute, please. Here's how astrologers get a bad name. I didn't say, nor did I mean to imply, that SSC would "shoot the Moon". ( the Quotes are inside the period punctuation because that is not my quote being written, but a quote enhancing and seperating a phrase, or figure of speech, from the main body of the sentence. Any kinda english should work thata way, Brit or otherwise ) . Anyhow, what I DID say was that the Jupiter conjunction with SSC's corporate horoscope Sun ( reincorporation, by the way, not original ) in Mid May is very likely to provide a jolt. Being a silver bull, and an SSC holder, I lean to a bump up. But I freely admit that may be "wishful thinking". My price chart work tells me next resistance on the upside is about $2.25. So I would expect at least that price on a decent rally. Hey, 100% on yer money in a month or two ain't bad, huh? After that, we could be lusting after 4 or 5 dollars. I wouldn't want to get ahead of that level for a while. I see a monster silver boom 2003 - 2006, and if that is a major peaking area, perhaps the next few years will take silver higher in step-ladder stages. Silver always tends to curve upward for a while before spiking in a straight up the wall advance. That up the wall could last a day or two in a rally of a couple weeks, a few weeks in a rally of a couple months, or in the case of a longer term multi-year bull, a couple of months.
Sorry to hear about your reel seat.
Good Fishing, my friend!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980425/asia_banki_2.html
ASIA ILL-PREPARED FOR CRISIS
MANAGING RISK FROM THE TOP DOWN
CREDITWORTHINESS WORTH CHECKING
HEDGING CAN STILL BE A HEADACHE
``Money papers over many sins. You took a position and hoped that when the music stopped there would be a chair.''

Are GOLDBUGS experts who will know tomorrow why the trends that were predicted yesterday didn't happen today ?

OR...............

Are we like the Chaps on Wall Street and the markets - success is like smoking dope, the more you suck the higher you get.

Or...............

Are we all like the overworked prositute who made two appointments for the same time. She managed to squeeze them both in.

Sorry about that one lads !

Then again, we have ANOTHER. What a preacher, his sermons are like water to a drowning man.

Och aye the noooooooooooooooooo..............

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980425/emirates_s_1.html
``South Africa has just become the number two supplier of gold to Dubai ahead of the UK, but we are still way behind the Swiss,'' said Jeffrey Rhodes, the Dubai general manager. ``But the equation is changing and will continue to change.''
``There will be no let-up in demand for gold from India,''
``There is concern about what will happen to Dubai. I think ( Dubai gold import ) demand is on course to at least match that of 1996 -- 350 tonnes -- and I think demand will probably reach 500 tonnes,''
Standard Bank group economist Nico Czypionka said he expected the gold price to rise to $340 an ounce by year-end and average around $325 for 1998 as a whole.

Your point regarding banks not recognizing geological resources in the ground pertains to auditing standards in many respects for natural resource companies as well. What you have described is a treacherous means by which more than meets the eye or ledger sheet may be confiscated - much of the very treasures of the earth itself.

Sorry, but I have to add this one to the pile.

Upon hearing that a sentence should not end in preposition, the late Sir Winston Churchill merely said, "This is the kind of nonsense up with which I will not put!"

REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 09:41
jonesy ( @ ANOTHER re. Gold Wars ) ID#251166:

In your last post ( today 00:39 ) you say, "If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?"

Question: Re. Gold War -- What specific actions and reactions do you envision? In other words, What possible scenario ( s ) , blow-by-blow, may we look for in a Gold War?

Mr. Jonesy,
This battle of wealth began long before our eyes were open. It was born as a conflict of the human spirit. Many teach the way of "honest dealings" and "earn your own way", then force their neighbor to accept a currency debt receipt, as payment for "real commerce goods". The world reserve currency is held by "default" not choice. Today. every digital money is a product of the US$ by nature of "it being the book keeping reserve". To this extent, the US$ is the only world currency! To this end, noone can see the true size of the "mismatch" in gold as money in US$. No country, Japan included, can sell dollar reserves without destroying their own currency! The BIS does not recognize other currencies as reserves, as they are, in themselves, a dollar product!
This "new gold war", it will be as "none before". The BIS will bring gold into the $320 to $360 range for the Euro. The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$. At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. In this light, one can see why many large buyers have been taking in gold, as it is held in terms of value of "after the war". Not the traded price of today.

Sir;
Your life passes, thoughts change and a persons perception of value does mature. The world, today does also mature! You will find a new financial future, in a value from the past. The world will embrace gold as "a better inheritance for our children" for it has now become a "lifetime holding". It is "the human nature" to be social, and many will not see this "new future" until it "has use from others".

"it is the way of people, some are part of the future, as they become the history of the past"


Thank You

Now you see it, and now you don't.

"Geological resources" and "Mineable reserves" do have legal definitions. Check it out via.....

http://www.ausimm.com.au/

left column window, under "Codes" - JORC and VALMIN

The Sheller family once owned a python. The family pet ostensibly belonged to laddie Hank, who bought him with his hard-saved birthday money as a...well...a "pup."
or whatever. When he died, after 17 years as family pet, and several architectural modifications to two residences, the beast was 16 feet long. Naturally, Dad became the keeper as son went off to other pursuits, like heavy metal music, computers, girls, etc. I am, among other things, an experienced handler of huge serpents. I mention all this because the key to the Flation dilemma is "the pig in the python". When Paul Volcker became Fed Chairman, he was brought in as the "terminator " at the very end of the 1970's. Gold and interest rates spiked at their highs afterwards, but rates remained quite high for a few years before subsiding. Volcker focused on Money Supply and was very effective in arresting the impetus to higher rates - the expanding money supply which had its roots in the Vietnam War and the social programs of the Great Society. Guns n' butter. Very rich diet. The inflation of the 1970's had its roots in the period between 1965 and 1974. But the chronic need for deficit spending and money supply increases to allow institutions credit to absorb treasury securities continued. Also, remember that the new credit and money of the 60's and 70's went into manufacturing and labor intensive, skilled activity. Though much stuff produced by the military industrial complex was burned up in Vietnam, and warehoused as attack ready missiles, planes and vehicles, the money to make that stuff kept families working and consumer goods in shorter supply than would have been the case had there been not so much waste of resources on destruction of materiel ( not to mention men ) . It took the pig about a decade to get fully through the python, and the effects were spread gradually, and increasingly, as time went by. Today the pig is a financial feast that does not benefit so many. It benefits those who had enough money to be investors to begin with, and it benefits institutions who deal in paper. But it is a pig nevertheless, and while it will not have the identical social impact of inflation it had in the 70's, it will be there in its own way to manifest in its own form, proably in the coming decade. Interest rates are bottoming now, and for all intents and purposes the python has wrung the life out of inflation for the past decade and a half, even while he gorges on the next pig. Since 1992 the snake has been eating. Take it from one who knows firsthand, the python in captivity is a genial enough beast when you know how to handle him, but is most fearsome and to be carefully defended against when he smells a meal.

I've been away for over a week. What is the opinion here about Placer Dome's investment in Vengold? Thanks!

Mr. ANOTHER,In your posting of Sat Apr 18 21:44, you offered to provide a discussion of the gold purchases and holdings of the BIS. I am very interested ( as are many others ) in the holdings and gold-related activities of the BIS, and my inquiries directly to them have not been answered. Your input on this matter would be greatly appreciated.Thank you.

your comment........

"The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil
currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$."

This precise reason why the EURO has to be backed by GOLD. The boys on Wall Street and the USA will HAVE to fight this one. However, the key is for the Japanese and the Chinese currencies to be backed by GOLD. The Chinese may well be on their way, the Japanese a concern as they have as of July 97 0.5% of the Bank of Japan resources held in physical gold.

Mike Sheller: I still say Rogers knows nothing re: gold. He has made a lot of money in the markets, but not in gold to the best of my knowledge. He just reads Andy Smith and spouts that as gospel. As long as Andy Smith was right so was Jim Rogers. But when Andy Smith is wrong, Jim Rogers will be wrong also. Like now. I predict he will not turn bullish until Andy Smith turns bullish. Somewhere between a long time and never. Because the huge panic CB sales he envisions ain't gonna happen.

Question: Why does this iconoclast who often clashes with Wall Street conventional wisdom, follow it so slavishly re: gold?

Go Riley ;- )

Thanks for the website, but not today...I have a "headache."
( When it comes to all those rules and regulations I feel so...so... incompetent! ) ( ;- )

From Donald's Yahoo post on domestic Korean debt woes--

The pain is getting worse. The Finance Ministry on Sunday reported the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in March soared to 6.5 percent against 3.4 percent a year earlier.

__________________________________________

One aspect of this is high population growth rates in developing countries requiring large GDP growth rates to absorb the people entering the workforce. A 'growth recession', slippage of the high former rates

of increase in economic activity to something around western industrialized rates of growth translates to real recession--

high unemployment, dashed expectations, spreading hopelessness.

A sinking to no growth or worse is calamitous. Like they say,

there's nothing more dangerous or politically destabilizing

than throngs of young, unemployed males.

did you get my reply e ? if not let me know,main thing with the brew is
its not finished fermenting until its finished,you don't need to measure anything if its bubbleing at all you got to wait,you must have made some strong stuff to go 2 weeks,but thats good,you just got to wait,kinda like us waiting for GOLD !!!! it will happen.

Re Mr Rogers, I can only repeat that he related, personally, over a year ago, that he expected further gold sales by CBs and he was right. These were later reported sporadically but serioiusly and even excitedly at this very forum. In the spring when I prodded him to buy gold shares he refused saying gold was going lower. He was right.
Whether his information came from somebody else, from his own gut, from expensive research, important contacts, or the stars themselves , matters not. Read my lips HE WAS RIGHT. Those who were WRONG about gold at the very same time can hardly afford to cast aspersions on his gold acumen, it seems to me. And unless I miss my guess, that seems to be what's going on. Don't seem right or fair to me somehow. IMVHO.

Sunday Times, London 04/26

Blair moves may end Euro
bank stand-off

by David Smith
Economics Editor

A DEAL on who will run the European central bank, one of
the most contentious issues in Europe, is close to being
finalised. Following contacts this weekend between Tony
Blair, Jacques Chirac and Wim Kok, the Dutch prime
minister, a fudge is set to be announced at next weekend's
special summit in Brussels.

Chirac, the French president, had been insisting that
Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the Bank of France, will run
Europe's central bank, which will be responsible for setting
interest rates throughout the euro zone. But Kok has been
equally insistent that Wim Duisenberg, head of the central
bank's forerunner, the European Monetary Institute, be given
the job. Apart from France, all other European Union
members back Duisenberg.

Blair, in his role as European Union president, contacted
Chirac and Kok on Friday to point out the dangers of
allowing the deadlock to run on past next weekend's summit.
The delay in naming a president has already damaged
financial market confidence in the euro.

Kok was unwilling to give ground ahead of the Dutch general
election on May 6, while Chirac was said to have been
insistent on a Frenchman at the helm of the bank, believing
that a gentleman's agreement to this effect had been made by
Helmut Kohl, Germany's chancellor, in return for basing the
central bank in Frankfurt.

Under a compromise deal pushed by Blair, thought to have
been accepted by both Chirac and Kok, Duisenberg will run
the central bank initially, probably for the first four years, with
Trichet joining the six-member executive board. Then,
although this may not be formally announced, the Frenchman
will step up to the top job.

The central bank will begin on July 1, six months ahead of the
start of the final stage of Emu. Interest rate decisions will be
taken by a 17-member board - six based permanently at the
Frankfurt headquarters, with the other 11 being the national
central bank chiefs of the participating countries.

Kohl promised Blair he would "keep a seat warm" for Britain
on the six-man board, but this offer was withdrawn after
objections from other member countries.

Next weekend's summit will formally open the way for 11 EU
countries - Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria,
Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain -
to join the single currency on January 1 next year. Euro notes
will replace national currencies in participating countries in
2002.

the Heat will Beat ;- )
go gold

suk~~~~~~~~

On the question of why men like womens legs ?

Options.....

1. Who likes fat legs ?

2. Who likes slender legs ?

Or, 3. Who likes soemthing in between ?

Remember, only one vote. Two people in every one is a schizophrenic, or should I say a Wall Street Dealer !

G'Nite......

go it. thanks. gold will go.....uh huh. someday....as soon as this permabear ( according to my best friend GSC ) EB says so.....and no sooner ;- ) go mark, beans, and corn........and blessed Plat.
away....to gear up for nba
?

suks too~~~~~X-laker,huh..---the 'glitter boys'

uhuh. ( hook-line-sinker? ) ....... ( swallow ) ....... ( reel em in )
AYEEEEE......oooooooch......away..eb

REPLY:

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 12:17

Haggis__A ( ANOTHER......... ) ID#398105:

This precise reason why the EURO has to be backed by GOLD. The boys on Wall Street and the USA will HAVE to fight this one. However, the key is

for the Japanese and the Chinese currencies to be backed by GOLD. The

Chinese may well be on their way, the Japanese a concern as they have as

of July 97 0.5% of the Bank of Japan resources held in physical gold.

Mr. Haggis,

I think, China was buying a great deal of gold and gold commitments ( paper gold ) thru a HK trader. They became much of the "not enough physical gold " problem for the oil/gold trade. China dumped much of this paper and continued to take in gold even today. Japan is a story of "no happy ending" as they are seen as "not aligned with Europe" or the BIS way of things. The EURO may send Japan down with the USA dollar! Asia will be lead by China, as they do understand a "Euro world". The ECB does know that "all holes in earth, lead to china"!

Thank You

Mike
Do you have anything in stars on Silver Standard or Pan American
Silver that you can share with us

Mike Sheller; Are you saying he is right now? His bearish views are very much at odds with your own. And he has been quite wrong the last few months. Why does he say nothing about the huge volume of CB gold loans that will have to be covered or the CBs that are buying gold? Or the huge potential impact of the Euro and new Asian currency system on the demand foe gold and the dollar?

He has been a broken record for 3 years now. "The CBs are going to dump a huge amount of gold at firesale prices and no one should buy until this happens". He said this 3 years ago. He is saying it now. He probably will be saying it for years more as gold surges. While there has been some modest CB selling these alleged huge supplies waiting in the wings are nothing but a myth used by the shorts to scare the longs.

Andy Smith was right for a while as well. But that does not mean he will be right tomorrow. Ditto for Jim Rogers.

http://www.unternehmen.com/IZ/

NEU 29.03.1998 DECLARATION OF THE 2ND EUROPEAN MUSLIM SUMMIT In the Name of Allah, all Merciful, the Most Merciful
The 2nd European Muslim Summit
DECLARATION

Weimar ( Germany ) , 29th of March of 1998

We, the European Muslims declare that:...
Thus the Dayton Agreement was the licence to activate the present problem in Kosovo. And the present agreement being prepared for Kosovo now is the licence to activate the problem in Macedonia tomorrow. This premeditated and perfectly timed process renders the entire Muslim population in the area completely helpless to defend their interests or protect their lives.

We therefore announce:
1.- The establishment of an Academy of experts from different Muslim lands to study the strategic development of events in the area.
2.- That any conflict affecting the Muslims of Europe will be taken as one single conflict.
3.- The only acceptable outcome is that Kosovo become an independent sovereign state in Europe.
4.- The establishment of The European Muslim Movement uniting the political will of all the Muslims in Europe and which is charged with the production and dissemination of the Islamic Dinar as our world currency.

http://www.unternehmen.com/IZ/

Click on "Hot News". Interesting that this is in ENGLISH.
This site has been resolutely German in the past...

As in who will stand their army for Arabia? Tom

MY planetalk resume: AT6,B25,C45,C47,C54,B29,B36,T33,B47,L049,L749,L1049,M404,CV340,CV440,DC6, DC7,DC8,L188,DC9,B727,L1011.

takes one to know one. YES.

thank you.

For a number of years, until it was recently dropped, I was an avid viewer of a CNBC panel show called "Strictly Business". The panelists usually consisted of Bill Wolman, Jimmy Rogers and Lawrence Kudlow. Others were mixed in over the years but those were the originals. Jimmy Rogers had the worst track record of all of them. He predicted inflation for years while the inflation dropped month after month. He predicted rising bond market yields for years while they dropped month after month. He predicted tops in the stock market for years while the market went up month after month. Wolman was the best on predicting interest rates and oddly enough Kudlow got the stock market run up, interest rates and inflation about right. Jimmy however was pretty much out in left field. I don't know what economy he was looking at but it wasn't the one I was living in. How on earth he became a millionire before thirty is beyond my. I am sure he gets many things right but when it comes to inflation and interest rates he was dead wrong for years. Quite a few years. He reminded a lot of Joe Granville who was right for awhile and then got on the wrong side of the equation and just never got in tune again. I think Jimmy may have had the melody in his younger days but he sure is out of step now.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980426/germany_el_2.html

Mr. Michael Kosares
Centennial Precious Metals:

I just dropped by my U.S. Post Office box, and recieved your book of ANOTHER"S postings, "In the Footsteps of Giants". Excellent job!!
Now as the book only included posts ( and observations ) from October 1997 to January 1998, may I suggest the following:
1. An update, that covers posts from Jan 1998 to present. Too much information has passed, and and justifies another edition immediately. In particular, the fact that the gold/oil situation has been corroborated, and is no longer a theory.
2. You began with October 1997. I strongly believe that the new edition would be more complete, if you were to begin in JANUARY 1997....just where Big Trader left off and the LBMA announcement ( of the huge gold volumes ) began. THIS was the moment of enlightenment, and when it all began coming together.....and the transparant lies of the gold market came out
3. This new addition could contain the pre-October 1997 posts and post-January 1998 posts as a FORWARD/EPILOG to accompany your book.

ALL: The book is a bargain at any price, and available from Mike Kosares at 1 800 869 5115, and IS the reason why we are all tuned in here. Sorry I havent been conversing with my friends....just too muck work.
Best Regards,
Cmax

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980426/indonesia__1.html

Because it is important that readers have some knowledge of the philosophical orientation of writers, let me state: I do not believe in the tyranny of the majority [preferring that government which stands as protection for the minority of one]; I do not accept virtue elicited at gunpoint [which is nothing more than the art of the stolen concept[; I do not accept the premise of eminent domain [persuade me with reasoned arguments and reasonable compensation]; I believe you can have liberty OR equality as a government guarantee and further, that Equality is a natural recognition between holders of similar Value-Sets ; lastly,
I do not believe that more stuff brings anything more than an insoluble storage problem.

What I shall hereinafter offer for your consideration, are observations predicated upon data, which has hopefully been correlated into information and processed by thought into reasonable, probable
scenarios. OK? {:- )

1. The prima financial [and philosophical] conflict: the Valuers, under which panoply one finds a rich mix of minds, the Gold Bugs, the Muslim world, China, the Greens. The Valuers are not allied in a formal sense, it is rather than their individual priority checklists bring them to the banks of the same river crossing. They will build the bridge together, because without the bridge no one crosses the river. They know the bridge can NOT be built with paper.

We can reasonably borrow the term sustainable development from one segment of the Valuers and utilize it as a leitmotif for them all: sustainable development is the gift that gold brings with its hard discipline; sustainable development it exactly what is put forward in IZ Islamische Zeitung,
http://www.unternehmen.com/IZ/
when describing the economic life for the people of the Ribat; sustainable development is what Davidson and Rees-Moog discuss when they --and others-- talk of government decentralization impelled by the information age; sustainable development is the ostensible policy brief of the Greens; sustainable development is tomorrows concept and it is the flex point of change because it limits and MEASURES.

Oh...and the Valuers have the oil.

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/asiaweek/current/issue/cs1.html

You left out one of the most important guides for new Kitcoites:

IDCIBM...I DON'T CARE, I'M BUYING MORE!

Thanks.

F*

Extreme bear ( EB ) getting nasty again. Probably bullish from a contrarian perspective.

SQM98...SHORT SQUEEZE MONDAY 1998!

Thanks.

F*

On June 28 1914, Austrian Archduke Francis Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serbian nationalist. Four weeks later Austria invaded Serbia. On August 1, Germany declared war on Russia. Within 3 days, France and Britain declared war on Germany.

World War I had begun. The immediate reaction of many union members in Canada was to denounce the war. On August 7, the Industrial Banner, Toronto Trades and Labour Council organ, wrote:

"The workers of the world will unite and repudiate all obligations imposed upon them by their selfish rulers...."

The orientation of the Labour officialdom in Britain and Western Europe was matched by that of the AFL ( American Federation of Labor ) . Since the USofA was neutral, the AFL was in a favourable position to take a peace initiative aimed at stopping the war or shortening its duration.

However, the AFL leadership was one inclined to USofA big business-certainly in foreign policy-and peace was not the foreign policy of big business.

Neutral it was, but not to win the war, rather to profit from it by selling armaments to both sides and loaning money to both sides. In the result, the AFL's policy paralleled the big business policy.

A resolution adopted by the AFL convention of November 1914, instead of calling on the world's workers to act now, asked them to ponder how they would act later, when the war was over:

"Be it resolved that this convention of the American Federation of Labour, in view of the general peace congress which no doubt will be held at the close of the war for the purpose of adjusting claims and differences, holds itself in readiness, and authorizes the executive council to call a meeting of representatives of organized labour of the different nations to meet at the same place, to the end that suggestions may be made, and such action taken as shall be helpful in restoring fraternal relations, protecting the interests of the toilers, and thereby assisting in laying the foundations for a more lasting peace."

So this was the situation. Canada was now at war. Automatically this put the trade union movement to a severe test. It now faced the classic problem-how best to serve one's country in an hour of crisis, how best to serve Canada. But there were other factors too. There was the dependent relationship in which Canada tended to stand both economically and politically to Great Britain and the USofA. Also, there was the dependence of most of Canada's unions on the USofA unions.

World War I. ( August 1914 Nov.1918 ) .....USofA World War I. ( April 1917 1918 )

November 1917 the Russian people eliminated the profit system and established socialism on one-sixth of the earth's surface. 1918 China under Sun Yat-sen moved forward as a revolutionary force, Similarly, India under Mahatma Gandhi struggle against British colonial rule.

During the war the position of the USofA changed from a debtor to a creditor nation. Over a billion and a half dollars of European holdings in the USofA was liquidated, while more than two and a half billion dollars of private capital and seven billion dollars of public capital were extended to the Allied powers in the form of loans.

Practically all this money was spent in the USofA as war orders, flowing like an undreamed-of bonanza.

Between July 28 1914 and Nov. 11 1918 some 10,000,000 young men were killed in that vast orgy of mass murder known as World War I. An estimated 20,000,000 more were maimed, crippled, burned, and wounded, their youth lost by mutilation. At the same time 13,000,000 civilians died in that great holocaust; there were 10,000,000 refugees, 5,000,000 war widows and 9,000,000 war orphans.

Canada 56,000 killed, 6,347 officers and 143,385 other ranks were wounded. As a result, the government was dispensing, by 1921 188,263 pensions for disabilities incurred in war service, or to soldiers' dependants. The dominion found itself running thirty-one military hospitals, which were jammed with 6,264 invalids, of whom 889 were mental patients

"We The People" pay the price for War. Do Corporations ?
( 1919....Canadian Population at 8.3 Million, paying tax to support war results. ) .........Be Quiet...Consume....And Die. eh!

FWIW.....Mushrooms-R-Us....Take Care

3 ) What populist perception did the U.S. mutual funds hope to create in de-indexing
gold stocks on Friday and redirecting investment funds into the bond market?
Could you please expand on this.
thank you

...namely that "the" financial safey haven is ( and will always be ) BONDS, not GOLD nor SILVER.

Thanks.

F*

The kindness sent my way from many here at KITCO, still I weep the good tearsmy eyes well, apparently, UP, and from the deepest of waters, this BIG DOG wants to let each and every one of you know that the shield I carry into the daily battle is made invincible, tis bound together by filament woven of strands from the eternal GOLDEN BRAID, the pergola which represents the blanket I feel representing your LOVE

Such delicious warmth

Stevie Wonder, cut 4 on Conversation PeaceTAKE THE TIME OUT TO LOVE SOMEONE, share your strength

REACH YOUR ARMS OUT AND HUG SOMEONE!!!

Out to weep with the willows

Please, PleaseRemember MY LOVE IS WITH YOU WHEREVER YOU ARE

GOD BLESS STEVIE WONDER...

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 13:29
SDRer__A ( Where are we? ) ID#287280:

Great weekend posts by you, Another, mozel, Allen. Farfel, ... to many people to mention. Power to the people through honest communication.

I am willing and able to deal with anyperson, place of thing that believes in the virtues of hard money and deals honestly with their fellow creatures.

I hope you are right and that all the supporters of hard currency will look beyond whatever personal differences may exist and work on buildint that important bridge together.

The USG and supporters of fiat currencies will do all they can to place devisive issuse betweens these groups and keep the media full of negative articles.

We must put aside our differences and focus on the COMMON goal - GOLD based transaction will benefit us all.

IMHO

BBML

...you may be interested in knowing that, as of today, my posts are not registering as joint "Author/Kitco" posts ( even though the message post indicates otherwise ) . Instead, my posts are registering under sole copyright.

Is there a bug in the Kitco posting mechanism?

Thanks.

F*

...I cannot post under sole copyright ( so please fix the matter or I cannot continue to post ) .

Given the truths that I disseminate on this forum, and given that these truths are bound to attract antagonists, then you will understand why I seek a form of legal protection in the form of "joint copyright."

Once again, if I cannot post under joint copyright, then this constitutes my final post.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/980424/world/world1.html

I have had a vision. While drinking deep of the sacred waters held by
the golden cup a great light came into my head and cast out the darkness. I saw a great bear emerging from it's resting place in the mountains. The
great bear is looking down into the valley and sees a tired, fat bull who is out of breath because of the heights he has climbed to. The great bear is lean, and mean, and hungry for it has been a long hibernation. I see the great bear eating the tired, fat, out of breath bull and running wild for several years. I see the mighty dollar laid low. I see great turmoil in the villages as people run in fear from the rampaging bear. Great stores of paper money that has been carefully laid aside for the future will be eaten by the bear. The people will have several long hungry winters as the bear reigns supreme in the land. I see all these things as being close at hand and not far off in the distant future. I see all these thing by climbing up on the shoulders of the great ones and looking into the past for it is only by looking back that one can see clearly ahead.

I really don't want to spend my Sunday defending Jim Rogers. He certainly doesn't need it from me. He HAS been wrong on a number of calls in the last couple years, YES. So have I, so have you. Alls I AM saying is that it is unfair and WRONG of you to say he is off the mark on gold. He has been bearish on gold for over a year and a half now. HE WAS RIGHT. As of this moment, if he is still bearish he MAY be wrong...OR he may still be right and YOU will CONTINUE to be wrong. Unless you can tell me you were bearish on gold for the past 18 months and short the stuff, I really don't think you can say that Rogers don't know gold. Period. I must now finish with the subject. But it was fun wrestling with you.

BUFFORD: If you can get me the dates of incorporation ( State if possible as well, but not so important ) I will run SSRIF and PAASF out of the computer and give you my opine. I'm sorry but demands on my time keep me from the research I would want to do, but if you can get those dates for me I would be happy to check their 'scopes and report on these 2 stocks. Look in a Moody's Industrial Manual at the library, or call your broker and get him to do a little real work for you.

I have finally given up on posting a couple of lengthy posts.....I have re-typed them for the last time...they just get eaten.....I think Bart's programmer left for other cyber pastures.

"joint copyright." would that be something perhaps Ted would be interested in?

http://www.btimes.co.za/98/0426/comp/comp5.htm

He is considering a small, cheap refinery for Bissett because of the

high costs paid by small mines to get their gold refined in Canada:

"Small mines get a much better deal here at the Rand Refinery than

they get in Canada."

http://www.btimes.co.za/98/0426/markets/markets.htm

But a smarter gold price, advancing a good $6/oz to above $314 before

levelling on Friday, and a big improvement in the quarterly results of

several mining companies, combined to lift the gold index by 18% to 1

102.

The gold index has climbed by almost two-thirds from its low of 670

early in December.

Marginals closely geared to gold have climbed at a faster rate than

have the quality counters. The Harmony mining company has more

than trebled from January's R9 to this week's R29 after a great

turnaround in fortunes during the first quarter. Randfontein is up by

150% from 600c to R15 in the same period and Anglogold ( was Vaal

Reefs ) by 88% to R280.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/human_interest/oddly_enough/story.html?s=z/reuters/980424/odd/stories/treasure_1.html

...such as "ADRIAN" and ask questions of me, I do not know whether they are friendly or not.

Joint copyright ( a matter I have researched ) provides a degree of protection for statements posted on this forum.

In the event of litigation, it becomes Antagonist VS. Kitco/Farfel...
not simply Antagonist VS. Farfel.

There is safety in numbers.

Do you understand?

Thanks.

F*

I would like to take the opportunity to re-post a "question" I posed to Another a while back. If this was answered, forgive the fact that I missed the reply. If it is redundant and irrelevant to brother and sister kitcoites, forgive me as well:

I would like to make an observation based upon the scenario that Brother Another lays out before us. If indeed he is accurately describing the structure and outline of things that are in place, happening, and to come, may we not circumvent to some extent the onerous difficulties that will be attendant to gold ownership by focusing, for the moment, as well, upon SILVER? In a new-world revealed by locked markets and bullion and mine confiscation of gold assets, would we not see a spillover of investor concern, panic, greed, and lust for silver? Indeed, as the lunar orb in nature reflects the light of the Sun, would not the metal of the Moon acquire the brightness of the Solar star in this drama? Or would silver fall under the same hand. My personal astrological work, as I have freely contributed here many times, indicates to me a monumentally significant impact upon silver around 2003 - 2006, with indications of further activity for gold and silver afterwards. But especially silver. Certain perplexing astrological subtleties I have noticed are now revealing their nature in light of Another's vision of the future. My readings are so clear for silver in the NYSE horoscope, yet so fuzzy for gold. Why?, I have been asking myself. Perhaps this is the reason why. Perhaps gold and gold shares will be unavailable to free markets, while silver will escape such a curse. Perhaps our eyes should be equally upon the white metal. My mining associate, and brilliant fellow astrologer Chad Meek has told me over and over again that in a day when gold is several thousand dollars an ounce, it will be out of the province of the ordinary investor, and on that day silver will be the "common" precious metal money at perhaps $150 or more. My question, for Another, and any others who would wish to help me speculate, is what will be the "legal" status and relative value of silver in such a scenario, and is this THE viable alternative for "the people" ? For it is always the children who suffer when the parents don't get along.

But, I was just saying that there are bugs in the posting system...not just gold bugs...do you understand?

I understand and appreciate your concern most clearly. Let us hope Oprah Winfrey does not appear at kitco some day. As welcome as she would be, I would hate to be in the sights of those who have been dogging her of late and might follow her here. Were they the bullish ( no pun intended ) gold interests, they might even take EB "away."

1. The prima financial [and philosophical] conflict: 1. The Pricers, who are believers in debt, which they equate with unlimited possibilities for unlimited gains and unlimited growth. Should one press them to define unlimited gain, they will immediately call-forth hot-button phrases like eliminate hunger from the world ; they are articulate and clever and can price anything one cares to drag before them by the simple expedient of asking, What do you need this to do?; they are, in short, the quintessential Relativists. The Pricers control the western world, which is to say, the world of fiat currencies, debt and unlimited debt growth. And, in a Wilde-an Way, they know the price of everything and do not recognize the concept of Value.

The Pricers view the Valuers as a PR/education problem. The Valuers tend to view the Pricers as moral bankrupts.

http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-04/26/155l-042698-idx.html

...but this does constitute my final post until such bugs are resolved.

Thanks.

F*

Try the ol' cut and paste method. Sometimes I've lost posts, too, although it appears to be a problem with my browser or ISP, not Kitco. Otherwise we'd all get the problems at once, eh?

Use a text editor and save it. Then when Kitco or whomever eats it, you don't have to retype. We really are waiting with bated breath . . . and turning blue . . . .

Go Blazers~~~~~

35-yro banker with background in oil.....you do the numbers

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/980421/world/world4.html

U.S. firm finds new way to turn methane into fuel
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Researchers at a California company
said Thursday they had found a good way to make fuel from
methane, an abundant gas found in places ranging from swamps to
sewers.
Reporting in the journal Science, they said they used a
platinum catalyst to convert methane into methanol, which can be
used to supplement gasoline.
Roy Periana and colleagues at Catalytica Advanced
Technologies Inc. in Mountain View, California, said their
method had an efficiency of 72 percent - very high for such an
process.
They noted that since the fuel crisis of the 1970s,
scientists had been looking for ways to convert natural gases
into alcohols or similar compounds that could be used to
supplement petroleum.
Their method uses much lower temperatures than usual for
such a chemical reaction, employing platinum as a catalyst in
it.
``The platinum complex is dissolved in sulfuric acid,''
Periana said in a telephone interview. ``We add the methane as a
gas. The reaction can be simply carried out by pouring sulfuric
acid into a steel vessel, adding this catalyst and the methane
and then heating it up to about 200 degrees ( Celsius, 390
degrees Fahrenheit ) .''

I bookmarked your post at 01:46 re the Smithers & Co. report. I thought I had marked an earlier post on the subject referring to accounting for stock options, etc., but seem to have lost. Have been searching the 25th and today without any luck.

Can you tell me time/posting of the orginal reference and/or a URL for the 4/20 Smithers & Co. report? Thank you, fummer.

( EURO ) Euro, Swiss franc seen close partners in money markets


ZURICH, April 26 ( AFP ) - The euro and the Swiss franc will
become inseparable allies, pundits say in Switzerland, where the
advent of the single European currency is arousing a high level of
interest.
Observers in Switzerland, a landlocked country outside of the
European Union, express confidence about the new look money, which
is due to make its landmark launch in January 1999.
Klaus Wellershoff, chief economic of Swiss Bank Corporation said
the euro has the potential to become "not only a stable currency,
but also a strong currency."
If that proves true, the euro would be pegged as "friendly" and
would live in neighbourly harmony with the Swiss franc, as the
German mark has done for decades, financial experts in Zurich say.
Under that scenario, the two currencies would not become rivals,
even if EU investors who have traded their own bills for the strong
and secure Swiss franc decide to repatriate their capital.
However, international investors will always have a need to
diversify their risks, said Credit Suisse economist Cesare Ravara,
and should continue to park some of their funds in Switzerland, a
global private banking powerhouse with an estimated two trillion
dollars under management.

Think you have to get to 100 words for any copyright, as I recall when all this started. Tom

http://www.smithers.co.uk/

TYoung is correct, I think. Just type in your own copyright header if less than 100 words.

AFA IDCIBM- EVERYONE knows that one.

IDCIBM
Thanks
-s

10-4
Roger, wilco.

All: It's a beautiful day here, I hope it is where you are too.

-s

As one who is heavily invested in gold stocks, I have read some rather unsettling posts about leased gold by mining companies.
Are the majors exposed to large risk if gold goes to US$400, 500, 600?
I am not as yet able to predict financial results for these ( hopeful ) outcomes.
The broker that I use is hopeless. He admitted that I am his only customer that holds any gold stocks. There is no mania in gold around here. Farfel is right about that too.
It seems that hedge positions can change without the company informing the stockholders in timely fashion. ABX TVX AU KGC HM NGC
Go Gold, but, what happens if it goes too much?

We are dreaming the same dream. There are natural alliances here to be made. Sustainable development, honesty is the key. Honest government, real money. Turn the world upside down. It's time. It's not going to be easy, got to be real diplomatic to get the various factions working together in harmony. Keep dreaming.

The portability of the Euro will give it appeal to many more than criminals! Anyone who values privacy in their transactions, and is getting tired of credit card companies tracking their spending habits and selling their names to merchandizers, for example.

Your posts today, as usual, are most appreciated. Thank you for sharing your research.

I see on my netscape browser below the "forgot your password" area three sets of words, "Author/Kitco" "Author" and "No one". But when I switch to the microsoft explorer browser I find there are radio buttons to the left of each of the three words. As a test I have checked the "No one button on the present post. From my experiance there are hidden radio buttons on netscape to the left of the "Preview comment..." and "Post comment..." lines, which appears to be a problem with my netscape colors.

Before doing this I looked up my "cookies.txt" file and didn't see any mention of any preference so this leads to several possibilities including either that "Author/Kitco" is the default, or there will be a cookie presented upon my changing the button from default or I don't recognize the cookie seen.

On the subject of advice, I don't give advice on investments. All my posts on that subject are merely homily. On other subjects I sometimes share common or uncommon knowledge but that isn't advice. From time to time I wonder why people seek such advice? for instance, if I comment on my own meager holdings of some stock or another, how can that be discussion be construed to be any recommendation for any other free adult to do anything?

I see on my netscape browser below the "forgot your password" area three
sets of words, "Author/Kitco" "Author" and "No one". But when I switch
to the microsoft explorer browser I find there are radio buttons to the
left of each of the three words. As a test I have checked the "Author"
button on the present post. From my experiance there are hidden radio
buttons on netscape to the left of the "Preview comment..." and "Post
comment..." lines, which appears to be a problem with my netscape
colors.
Before doing this I looked up my "cookies.txt" file and didn't see any
mention of any preference so this leads to several possibilities
including either that "Author/Kitco" is the default, or there will be a
cookie presented upon my changing the button from default or I don't
recognize the cookie seen.
On the subject of advice, I don't give advice on investments. All my
posts on that subject are merely homily. On other subjects I sometimes
share common or uncommon knowledge but that isn't advice. From time to
time I wonder why people seek such advice? for instance, if I comment on
my own meager holdings of some stock or another, how can that be
discussion be construed to be any recommendation for any other free
adult to do anything?

What a poisonous SOB he is. I hope he was shorting K-TEL. I wonder why lawyers have such a bad reputation.

Sorry, Bart. did you know your radio buttons arent visible in on some configurations of netscape?

Mr. ANOTHER --

Thank you, sir, for your response to my earlier question. It brings up another one.

In your earliest posts ( Oct. & Nov. '97 ) you stated: "The market is changing now... it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome."

What precisely does this mean? Or perhaps the better question is, To whom are you speaking?

Thank you. Respectfully,

Dean Jones

When we talk of the 400 -500 - 600 Dollar Gold, it should be kept in mind that it is based on the over priced USA dollar. If you look at the cross currency charts, countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia etc. are paying a pretty hefty price in their currency for an ounce of gold. Canadian citizens for example are paying over $400 Canadian for a Mountie. This is rather discouraging for gold sales.

The merger of Citicorp and Travelers will create a database of 70,000,000 persons, combining their medical records with their financial records for the first time. Many persons are forced to do business with one or both of these companies based upon agreements made by their employers or former employers. There is no way to escape their clutches.

2. Europe is the west, unfortunate perhaps, but an undeniable truth. To view the Euro as a 'savior' of gold is delusional. Europe will be dragged to a gold link, but there is a body of evidence which suggests it will not be one more gram than is absolutely necessary. What is 'necessary'?
Defined by whom?

Play a little identification game: ask yourself who can get along without whom.

We find ourselves back on the banks of that river we need to cross, in the milling, disparate groups of Valuers, yes?

Promethus@not.just.a.dream! Power brings together disparate groups,
allied by a common need. As long as the highest priority needs 'mesh',
and define what is perceived as a 'common good', the alliance can 'work'.
We will see, mmmh? {:- ) )
PS--was moved by your afternoon thoughts yesterday...

Missed your post first time through. Donald was--as always--there
with the best answer.

Donald@Thank.you.Thank.you

BBML

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980420/clemente_a_1.html

Make that 70,000,001. They just bought my cc account from another bank. Got their bill, thought it was another solicitation. Threw it onto the "out" pile, then had a second thought, and opened it to see what interest rate they were offering this time. Imagine my shock when it was my bill!

As the young men of World War I died many thought they were dying for a great ideal. And after it was over President Wilson himself wearily asked an audience on Sept. 5 1919, "Is there any man here or women-let me say is there any child-who does not know that the seed of war in modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry ?" Then he said explicitly " This was a commercial and industrial war."

But in between he was forced to rally the nation for the war which was "to end war" and "make the world safe for democracy"

August 1914, he had urged Americans to be "impartial in thought as well as in action" and his Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan condemned loans to any belligerent powers as contrary to the spirit of neutrality.

Matthews Josephson in his "President Makers":"The gist of this conference was then summarized in a letter which was given Lansing ( Bryan's assistant ) and which he merely copied and showed President Wilson that same night, October 23 1914 as representing his own views of the proper policy regarding the temporary banking credits. That night Lansing won Wilson's agreement to "look the other way" at temporary credit accommodations that were being supplied the French and British treasuries. Wilson, who had earlier supported Bryan's position, now executed a strategic retreat from a position based upon the "true spirit of neutrality" to one based upon "strict legality."

Wall Street was agitating for long-term instead of short-term loans to England and France but all in the hush-hush atmosphere of the back rooms. With the new Secretary of State Lansing backing McAdoo's ( President's son-in-law Secretary of Treasury ) , President Wilson, on Aug. 26 1915, revoked Bryan's prohibition. Wilson's decision was never given out to the American people; it was, however, secretly conveyed to those entitled to know.

"Our firm" said Thomas W. Lamont, the Morgan partner, "had never for one moment been neutral. We didn't know how." And how could they, when billions of dollars were involved? September 1915, Morgan floated the first of the huge Anglo-French loans. It was for half a billion dollars, the greatest foreign loan yet floated in the USofA. In gross commissions alone the Morgan people made a cool 22 million out of it.

Loan followed loan so that by the election year of 1916, when Wilson ran on the slogan "He kept us out of war," USofA were in fact already in it. The repayment of over two and a half billion dollars depended on an Allied victory while a German triumph would have plunged the USofA into panic and depression.

In early part of 1917 things looked very dark for the Allies. On March 5 1917, Walter H. Page, American ambassador in London, sent a cable home in which he spoke of the perilous economic position of England and France.

In this confidential cable ( which was kept from public view until 1936 ) , Page went on to say:"Perhaps our going to war is the only way in which our present prominent trade position can be maintained and a panic averted."

Just one month later President Wilson asked and received from Congress a declaration of war.

FWIW.....Take Care.

the Not just a dream. Looking forward to it.

Thanks for the kind thoughts re yesterday. Am calling the family and trying to prop them up for this coming week.

OUR FATE

Americans are no longer aware that there are two kinds of legal systems, political and scientific. America was founded on principles of scientific law. But these principles have now been submerged in today's legal system. What is taught today as law is political law.

To understand the difference between a scientific legal system and a political one, it is necessary to know that scientific law developed in the absence of any legislature or Congress or Parliament whatever.


Scientific Jurisprudence.

Fifteen centuries ago the Roman Empire had collapsed. In many places there was no law and no courts. Whenever two individuals had a dispute, they had to work it out on their own. Before scientific law, disputes often led to mayhem, brawls, or worse. Gradually, however, justice was established by scientific law. The private, scientific law courts had no government force at their disposal. The Sheriff served the due process of the law. He was not a law-enforcer. The scientific law courts were private courts that were supported by the fees charged to litigants. People paid because the scientific law courts provided a useful service. People consented to the due process of the scientific law to have its protection and justice. If they did not obey the writs and process of the scientific law court, they could be declared "outlaw", outside the protection of the law. An outlaw was on his own. He had spurned the service of scientific law to aid him resolve a dispute. If he were robbed or killed in a dispute, neither he nor his family had any recourse. Thus, self-interest induced people to support and obey the writs and judgements of the scientific law courts. Students are taught today that law and government are virtually the same thing, but this is quite wrong. Law and government are two very different institutions and they do not necessarily go together. Law is a service; government is
force.

Our American heritage of scientific law came to these shores with British settlement. Our scientific law was developed as the common law of England, which itself was developed among the Anglo-Saxons before the invasion of England by the Norman William the Conqueror in 1066. The Magna Carta was a concession by the Norman King to honor and respect the common law of the Anglo-Saxons. Eventually, Henry II establish common law judges of the King's Bench at Westminister. Because these judges provided a less costly, more predictable, more orderly, and more just form of common law justice, they gradually replaced the shire and Hundreds courts in the countryside. The English common law judges were serious, moral, learned men who recorded the cases heard in their courts and who wrote down in Latin the Anglo-Saxon maxims of law by which they made their judgements. Coke and Littleton also wrote Treatises on the common law and the reason of it. The right reason of the law was human logic and reason applied to the experience of mankind as recorded in discovered principles of law. The common law judges served the law in this process of discovery. They did not unsettle the law with their opinions, but endeavored to make their judgements consistent with cases previously decided and with the reasoning upon principles followed in those cases. This rule of stare decisis or do not disturb the settled law made the common law increasingly predictable and increasingly useful as a service. Logic was applied to settled principle. Common law was not only a private legal system, it was a scientific one. Abraham Lincoln considered `Euclid's Geometry' to be one of his most important law books; he studied it to be sure the logic of the argument of his cases was airtight.


Two Fundamental Maxims

A major problem a common law judge encountered was disputes between persons from different communities. Maxims or principles upon which cases would be decided had to be held in common by all good people. There are two fundamental laws on which all major religions and philosophies agree: ( 1 ) do what you have agreed to do, and, ( 2 ) do not encroach on others or their property.

Scientific or common law developed on these two foundation maxims: "Do what you have agreed to do" was the foundation maxim of contract law; "do not encroach on others or their property" was the foundation maxim of criminal and tort law. A tort is a harm to another or to property of another. This is how common law became the source of all our basic laws against theft, fraud, kidnapping, murder, etc. These acts were not made illegal by statutes enacted by legislatures; they were prohibited by centuries-old common law, the heritage of the people who settled this continent.


Legal Consistency

A skilled common law judge would make all his decisions logically consistent with the two fundamental maxims, the discovered principles, and the record of already decided cases. This served one of the most important values of scientific or common law: its certainty. Scientific or common law changed little from one decade to the next. The two fundamental maxims anchored it, a stabilizing force. The community could expect their legal environment to remain reasonably orderly. The people could be self-governing according to law.

In fact, common law in America at one time was so logical and sensible that the typical American could study and understand it. It was regarded as a source of wisdom and taught in the family circle. The great British statesman Edmund Burke said of early America, "In no country, perhaps, in the world, is law so general a study." He observed that "all who read, and most do read, endeavor to obtain some smattering in that science. I have
been told by an eminent bookseller, that in no branch of his business ... were so many books as those on law exported to the colonies." A British general trying to govern America in the 1700s complained that Americans were impossible to buffalo; they were all lawyers. These were the people who gave the world the great American Declaration of Independence.


Political Law

Political law is the opposite of common law. Based on political power -- brute force -- not on the two fundamental maxims. It is crude and primitive. It has no requirement for logic or morality. It changes whenever the political wind changes. Fickle and tangled; no one can
completely understand it. Political law is also known as feudal or civil law.

Democracy or dictatorship, it doesn't matter; political law is arbitrary. You do whatever the powerholders say, or else. Right or wrong, it commands obedience.

This is why majority rule is mob rule. The majority is as ill a ruler as any dictator. Like the dictator, they do not necessarily vote for what is
right; they vote for what they want.

Their wants change constantly, so political power destroys a man's ability to plan ahead. James Madison asked in the `Federalist Papers', "What prudent merchant will hazard his fortunes in any new branch of commerce when he knows not that his plans may be rendered unlawful before they can be executed?" Political law thus destroys prosperity.

The American Revolution was fought over the difference between scientific law and political law. Government officials had encroached into the
private business, lives, and property of the colonists, and the colonists resented this. "All men are created equal". God has given no one
special permission to encroach on others, government included.

The leaders of the American revolution believed scientific or common law was superior to political or civil law. After the revolution, they created the Bill of Rights and other documents based on common law principles. The goal was to make the superiority of these principles permanent, and to restrain
government's efforts efforts otherwise.


Discovery versus Enactment

The founder's understanding of the scientific nature of common law can be seen in this statement by Thomas Paine: "Man cannot make principles, he
can only discover them."

Common law was a process of discovery. The premise of common law was that there is a Higher Law than political law; the judges tried to discover and apply this Law. It was carefully, logically, worked out, case after case, century after century, much like the laws of physics or chemistry. When error was dicovered by reason, it was overturned.

Political law is the product of an unreasoning crowd. Legislators -- wrongly referred to as lawmakers -- vote for and against statutes according to the political pressures of the moment. What is legally right by such statutes today may be wrong tomorrow. In fact, the frequent redefining of legal right and wrong is considered am accomplishment; during re-election legislative candidates proudly boast of the number of new "laws" they have made. A self-deluded crowd calling itself a legislature will even attempt to command nature. The Arkansas legislature once enacted a statute forbidding the Arkansas River to rise higher than a certain limit. The ignorance of the people about the difference between scientific, common law and political statute allows legislators the delusion that they are law-makers. The uneducated yield power and the politicians take it.

Because those who came before us and after the Founding of our nation neglected to educate themselves and their generation in the knowledge of scientific law, we now live in a world where most people ignorantly
assume politicians have some divine power to make law. In 1788, Patrick Henry warned this could happen during his speeches to prevent ratification of the Constitution. He predicted that "Congress, from their general powers, may fully go into the business of human legislation." Patrick Henry's foresight has been proved correct to our woe. Today's burdensome, irrational American legal system of "human legislation" is the proof.

Each year in the U.S. there are more than 100,000 new "laws", rules and
regulations enacted. This is a primary reason the economy is a shambles. Tax rates, money supply, trade restrictions, licensing laws, and thousands
of other factors are stirred around in a witch's brew of political regulation.

This brew is lunacy. In `The Trenton Pickle Ordinance and Other Bonehead Legislation', Dick Hyman cites 600 examples demonstrating the idiocy of political law. In Massachusetts, says Hyman, it is illegal to put tomatoes in clam chowder. A Texas law says that when two trains meet at a railroad
crossing, each shall come to a full stop and neither shall proceed until the other has gone.

Go back and reread Edmund Burke's remark about our forefather's study of law. Notice Burke refers to law as a science. Would any sane person today
call our present legal system a product of science ?

Common law was not perfect, but it was consciously aimed at serving truth and justice. Political law has no aim at all, other than to obtain and use political power for whatever purposes the powerholders decide. Common law embodies the principles upon which this nation was founded. It weathered continuous political assault until the politically manufactured emergency of the New Deal was used to overwhelm it.


Liberty vs. Permission

Under political law people have no genuine liberties; only permissions. We do not have freedom of speech -- we have permission to speak. We do not have freedom to trade -- we have licensed permission to trade. These permissions can be restricted or revoked at the whim of the powerholders. Indeed, under political law we really have no more political liberty than did the people under communist and socialist Soviets; just more permissions at the moment.

Under scientific law, the individual's fundamental rights to life, liberty, and property were endowments from the Creator; they could not be
infringed. Says Arthur R. Hogue in `Origins of the Common Law', "The common law is marked by a doctrine of the supremacy of law ... All agencies
of government must act upon established principles ... The king, like his subjects, was under the law."

Government control of the education of the young, of the school system, causes a "chilling" effect on teaching what we and our families need to know about our heritage of scientific law in order to preserve freedom. Teachers and textbook publishers fear to mention anything that the bureaucrats who control budgets and hiring and firing might disfavor. Any serious criticism of government is omitted from the student's lessons. Vital knowledge about law, our heritage, and the history of the struggle for liberty and justice are not passed on to the next generation.

Our Common House is in a shambles. The roof leaks and the foundations are rotting. We have no choice. It is our fate that we must interrupt our pleasures and private pursuits and join with others to study the common law to learn how to restore the House. Otherwise, a cold, cold wind will soon blow in on us and we shall be more unsheltered beneath every political storm that arises than we already are until finally we shall live in misery in a complete ruin.

[Revised from `Freedom League Newsletter', Apr/May 1987 How We Lost Our Common Law Heritage by Richard J. Maybury]

Government and coporate power are still subject to law. You will escape their clutches only by law and only by trial or wager of law. Otherwise, you will be a victim of the legal system. You cannot hire it done.

Damn fat fangers!!
Could be the individual problems are due to individual preference settings?!

All that in such a short time from my inflamatory phrase? Call 911; the blisters on your fingers from all that typing require immediate treatment! ( grin thing ) You are a great teacher.

I thought that this post would be of interest to some of the worthy GBs
who have been trying to address some of the more complex issues that will affect our investments & even our way & quality of life. I feel that he makes a lot of sense & although his views are very eclectic he makes a strong case for a higher POG.



As an old pro I assure you that gold and precious metals, commodities, etc. are trading vehicles. They aren't investments. Even an investment is taken with the intent of eventually selling it.The trading vehicles don't create added value because they don't harness what humans can do. This is the only true thing of value. There is no intrinsic value in material goods. They don't create future wealth. Neither does real estate. It's a cold loss. However these material assets can have extended bull markets for only one reason: psychology. The psychology of rational expectations, or the psychology of lack of trust. Or excess wealth. Or fear of deprivation. Or the greater fool.

That is the core reason for inflation. A state of mind. That's why the profs at Harvard, MIT, Berkeley and just about everyone else can't quite figure it out. There is no inflation right now according to the government measures. Tells you nothing. The people are hardening their hearts towards the creators of wealth. They want theirs. They have been trained to expect the guaranteed existence. If they don't get it, they'll pull down the entire world. We've had an extended run in the good and easy life. The situation isn't as ripe as it was in the late '60's, but there are enough pieces in place to get the ball rolling at least up to the major down trend.

The major down trend is the reality that goods almost cost nothing to produce. The essence of value is the ability to do something with skill. Those that can do will start demanding more for it because they can get away with it. Their situation is inelastic because the intervening years has made many indolent and dependent. I call this expertism and it has been well-analyzed by Fredrich Von Hayek. To the extent that the few have the many at a disadvantage, to that extent they can inflate their worth. The recognition of this superiority reflates up to the down trend.

Central banks can't do anything. In fact, just about anything they do feeds fuel into the fire. This state of affairs is called "pushing on a string", and is the reverse of what is usually an environment where this characterization applies. What it usually means is the central bank's creation of money doesn't bail the depressed economy out because people are too afraid to borrow. A liquidity trap. In this case raising interest rates hurts the mass of incompetents more than it hurts the skilled elite who will continue to demand wages in excess of the rate the less skilled are worth. The less skilled can still push through protective wage demands that are in excess of the worth of the output. The result is structural inflation. Actually, we should call it "pulling on a rubber". That which is pushed or pulled will go whatever way it wants regardless of pushing or pulling.

Why didn't this scenario develop in the late '80's? Because the rest of the world was still coming out of socialism, out of the Stone Age, and were willing to work harder for less. The world's wealth moves in the direction of that combination. The world's wealth moves to MSFT because they give their stuff away. During the '90s the rest of the world has been under the whip of the running dog capitalists. Since semi-skilled labor didn't want to own the means of production, didn't want the risk and responsibility of having to make it happen, just wanted the guaranteed existence, they have had to suffer the consequences of exploitation without adequate compensation. They have learned though that they don't need to work for a song. The result has been worldwide parity in intrinsic value of labor in most semi-skilled positions. There's few places left to get cheap labor. When a few raise their wage rate, the rest of the world will follow gleefully.

Also during the '80s the entire US had got a fix with COLA. Since draconian interest rates of the past made inflationary wage settlements impossible, legislatures have easily pushed through laws protecting and indexing everything to inflation. The outcome is that at the slightest hint of inflation, the FED, e.g., has to go in and engage in massive tightening to avoid an explosion of prices. They won't do it because they're hoping Asian problems will bail us out. They'll delay. That's where you get the gold trade. Eventually they have to blast us all, and you have to sell the gold play. It is also true that gold does well in pure deflation as in the '30s. But after the blasting that's about what we'll be in so maybe you shouldn't sell the gold!

When Mr. ANOTHER says: "The market is changing now... it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome." I think he is referring to paper-gold traders ( i.e. futures/options ) and gold equity/share traders of which there are many on this Kitco forum.



I think Mr. Another believes that when the gold market get squeezed to the stratosphere:



a ) COMEX will be forced to close



b ) Gold mining companies will be taken over by their governments.



No doubt time will tell but I think we all know just how fast POG can move up. It's at about the same speed that equity markets can move down ! And by the looks of things PHYSICAL IS RUNNING OUT FAST

I am running Netscape 3.0 on a WindowsNT 3.51 platform and the radio buttons were news to me. I can highlight the labels but no buttons appear.

Thanks for your post at 15:08; however, turns out I can't read the report on stock options because it is for clients only. Oh well, got the jist of it anyway. Thanks again, fummer.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980426/stocks_wee_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980424/u_s_busine_1.html

I have Netscape 3.01 gold and 4.04 - use both on two machines. On one machine we have a small screen and lower resolution. 3.01 doesn't show all the parts of the grey Viewing Options box until I click on them ( remembering where they should be, of course ) . But on my big machine with lots of memory, a high res screen and big graphics monitor BOTH netscapes work just fine, all the time. All radio buttons, etc. It's machine specific. ( Use Win 95 ) On my machine with WinNT it's also ok, inc. radio buttons. Go figure. That's why we pay programmers so much.

...I've been speaking with an attorney recently about a particular issue and he has raised my paranoia level on certain matters. Moreover, since I know we are about to experience some "intensity" in the gold market, then this realization only exacerbates my tension level.

I now recognize that the Kitco's automatic duo copyright applies to posts exceeding 100 words so, therefore, the status quo prevails.

Again, sorry...please ignore my earlier posts addressed to you.

Thanks.

F*

My programmer friend recommends upping the screen resolution to see if the radio buttons, missing text, etc. appear then. This is the most likely problem. It's possible that too many TSR's are running. My netscape on my oldest ( smallest ) system keeps running into memory problems. The other two never do.

The general state of awareness on the forum when questions of government come up prompted my post. No need to call 911 unless your monitor like mine is smoking from T1's weeping online. Sorry that your discouraging word, which was out of your usual demeanor, provided the occasion for the post. smily thing.

I suggest for your peace of mind that you pay your hearsay surrogate ( attorney ) to write your posts.

Good evening all,
I have taken on a large call position predicated on a rather bullish week up ahead.Am I alone?
( Thanks to Hotshot and Jman for your replies last week ) .
Thanks in advance.

As are you, I am not at all pleased with the deviations we have made since 1776. Perhaps one of these monopolistic corporate or governmental outrages will set the spark that gets it all undone. I am convinced that we must unravel in chaos for it will not be changed otherwise. Many individual Congressmen ( and women ) , perhaps even a majority, know we are going down the wrong road. No one of them has the courage to speak or act out in a non-partisan way. It will take a crisis to motivate them as a unit, to reverse the direction of 1932. That is the way of politics. I have wondered aloud what I would have done as President in 1933 if it had been my problem to solve. Perhaps the same as Roosevelt. It is hard to know without being on the spot yourself. I also like to think that I would have put it right within a few months. Again, hard to know.

...have taken steps to minimize and/or eliminate their downside exposure and are fully situated to benefit greatly from an upside breakout.

Most of the gold companies that got themselves in trouble recently ( such as Pegasus, Royal Oak, etc. ) sold forward production and/or obtained gold loans to develop mines whose reserves could not be extracted profitably at prices of gold BELOW 350 or higher. For example, Pegasus' MT. TODD has fairly hefty reserves in the ground...only problem is that you cannot begin to extract the stuff profitably for anything under 400 an ounce.

Provided that gold mining companies have avoided this preceding scenario
( that is, selling forward production and/or obtaining gold loans to finance mine development whose reserves can only be mined profitably at gold price levels much higher than the existing market levels ) ...and provided they are not heavily immersed in the gold derivatives biz, specifically putting hefty quantities of gold at these current levels...then the gold companies should benefit enormously from higher prices of gold.

As far as I know, the companies you listed do not face any potential gold loan problems. On the other hand, the bullion houses and certain central banks...now that's another story.

Thanks.

F*

Netscape Communicator 4.05 shows copyright buttons. O/S is Win 95 and screen resolution is 800x600.

If you really believe a la ANOTHER, that Gold mining shares and other paper instruments will be worthless, then I suggest you get out of debt and accumulate bullion. ( Where is Steve Puetz? ) I for one will play the paper game a while longer.

Is it Up or down tomorrow.

Thank you very much for you posts and contributions.

if everyone recalls, Davidson and Rees-Mogg predicted a return to "tribalism", a broad term meaning cultural and religious fundamentalism, which accompanies times of upheaval, such as this one ( ? ) Therefore, the events in Indonesia should surprise no one.

I would appreciate any advise about on line brokers.
Although I have been pleased with Fidelity, I am paying large commissions. $600 to $800 per trade on some gold stocks.

down

Why?

It ain't gonna happen in Congress. The Constitution has been revolutionized from the top twice already: By Lincoln and the Reconstruction Congresses and by FDR and the New Deal Congresses. Neither of these revolutions from the top were worth the cost or yielded sustainable changes.

The fundamental problem with this Constitution is that amendment to it cannot originate in the States.

In the meantime, those who continue to think despite all warnings that they have recourse by placing their affairs in the hands of attorneys will be sadly deluded, roughly treated, helpless victims.

2 - 0 ...YES ( ? )

all rights to this statement are copywritten. to reproduce this is to violate copyright laws and prosecution will be swift yet painless....perhaps a shot o' tequila to ya..... ( gulp ) ......go gold.

Just a couple of days ago, Steve in TO, Mike Sheller and I were running around the maypole trying to sort out the deflation dilemma, too. The thread started 8ish with Mike's comments, ran for hours. At the end, Mike issued the challenge I've pasted below. It's for you. Way out of my ken. Yesterday, I picked up a couple more books on the subject, having discovered more questions on the historical details of 1929-33. If you could add your $.02, would be appreciated, Mr. Secretary.

The Challenge ( should a deflationary crash occur ) :

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 19:56
Mike Sheller ( Steve in TO ) ID#347447:
Copyright  1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PS - Milton Friedman ascribes the money supply shrinkage in the US during the last "Big One" to the
ineptitude of the organization created to head off just such a mistake - the Federal Reserve.
If WE are discussing it, what think you is thinking Alan Greenspan at this very moment?! What a corner for
the former Ayn Rand accolyte to be in. What, pray tell, ( and I ask you and Prometheus, and any other erudite
kitcoite who wishes to respond ) should the course of action officially be in the event of the next "Big
One"???? Best answer becomes my Secretary of the Treasury or Federal Reserve Chair in my administration ( I
will get elected by promising everyone that the "stars" will show me the way ) .

Consider "ADRIAN" friendly. Appreciate all the info on this site.

Your post re scientific law is fascinating. Thank you. This line of thought deserves its own book/web site.

I trade via Fidelity. I have a brokerage account. This is the fee schedule:

Important Legal Information
Active traders refer to those customers whose accounts qualify for Active Trader pricing or Gold Circle pricing. To qualify, customers must make at least 36 or 72 stock, bond or option trades per year respectively, and maintain a minimum account balance of $20,000. For stock trades placed online via Fidelity's Web site or Fidelity On-line Xpress+TM, in qualifying accounts of active traders, the base rate is $14.95. For customers whose accounts do not qualify for active trader pricing, the base rate is $19.95.

For stock trades of 1,000 shares or less, the base rate applies. For 1,001-4,999 shares, customers pay the base rate plus $.03 for each share over 1,000. For 5,000 or more shares, customers pay the base rate plus $.02 for each share over 1,000. For shares priced under $1, customers pay the lesser of the rate as calculated above or 3% of principal subject to a minimum commission equal to the base rate. There is a $3 premium per trade for limit and stop orders. The premium does not apply to Gold Circle customers.

A thousand share block trades for 19.95 or if limits are used 22.95. Hope this helps.

technical more than anything else. It must retrace and there is a WIDE gap to fill at 306ish. No news will mean bad news for gold.......or more Swiss news will also be bad. US interest rate hike talk had little to no effect on POG. I was a little suprised. Also PLat and Pall will possibly drag it down too. I see NO reason for a gold bull to resume next week.

( this is all MY opinion.....and 'noone' should take this opinion to make market moves. DO YOUR OWN DAMN HOMEWORK ) .

thanks for asking 'the Don' ( smile )

away...to the bulls and nets



Flash I think you;ll be in the money soon . Seems the deleivery of April contract could be very tight.

Does anybody have a good recommendation of online discount futures brokers??

...mostly amusing, and oft incomprehensible...

James said:

As an old pro I assure you that gold and precious metals, commodities, etc. are trading vehicles. They aren't investments. Even an investment is taken with the intent of eventually selling it.The trading vehicles don't create added value because they don't harness what humans can do. This is the only true thing of value. There is no intrinsic value in material goods. They don't create future wealth. Neither does real estate. It's a cold loss. However these material assets can have extended bull markets for only one reason: psychology. The psychology of rational expectations, or the psychology of lack of trust. Or excess wealth. Or fear of deprivation. Or the greater fool.

F* says:

When you state that commodities are mere trading vehicles, not investments...that these commodities have no intrinsic value, are you writing in all seriousness?

Let us examine another commodity ( since we talk ad nauseum on this forum about precious metals ) .

WATER....does this commodity not have any intrinsic value? Is it a mere trading vehicle rather than an investment? Is that why the Bass brothers
have bought up thousands of acres of water rights in Central and Southern California over the past year? Simply for the purposes of trading rather than the purposes of investment?

James, you can advance all the ludicrous theories about commodities you wish, however the reality is very simple and explicit: they DO have intrinsic value and there are many extremely knowledgeable and wealthy individuals who regard them solely as investments rather than trading vehicles. Ask Mr. Buffett if physical possession of millions of ounces of silver constitutes a fast trade or a buy and hold investment.

BOTTOM LINE: James, clear away your gold shorts...the time has arrived where you should consider protecting yourself rather than attempting to desperately justify a reversion to gold's ante status quo.

Thanks.

F*

for those that give a hoot. i am BOTH bull AND bear in June contracts....have been since near lows. do your own homework. a permabear I am NOT. Period. that is all.

away...

lovesgold :- )

From your earlier post...it bears repeating...


Discovery versus Enactment

The founder's understanding of the scientific nature of common law can be seen in this statement by Thomas Paine: "Man cannot make principles, he can only discover them."
Common law was a process of discovery. The premise of common law was that there is a Higher Law than political law; the judges tried to discover and apply this Law. It was carefully, logically, worked out, case after case, century after century, much like the laws of physics or chemistry. When error was dicovered by reason, it was overturned.

Blessed are you Mozel, for Flesh and Blood hath not shown you this.

Bryant Park is melting in the rain... your defrosting does my heart good. Away....

Is it a typo? ( Should ) or was ( Could ) intended? I think we should ( and will ) have a deflationary depression. A deliberate one. Paul Volcker set out to do just that. I think he saw it as the only solution in April, 1980, when T-bills hit 18%. That was the correct action. It was his plan to attempt a rescue at some point. That is what happened. We do not yet know how it ends.

We must re-establish moral hazard. The Chryslers must fail, the NYC's, the Donald Trump's and the "too big to fail" banks. We must restore savings or there will be no capital and no capitalism. Deposit insurance should be abolished as a governmental function but should still be available ( but not required ) through private insurance.

The gold standard should be re-established and the Fed should be abolished. Government should be removed from any role in banking. Each bank should be required to make full disclosure of condition to the public. Private rating company would quickly provide professional rating services for a fee. Responsibility for selecting a bank should be the burden of the depositor. Any Tom, Dick or Harry should be able to open a bank, print private banknotes, create electronic currency or do anything he wants.

You know, when ya got to have someone tell you what somebody else meant in their posts that go back five or six months then: "Houston we got a problem!".

Down Monday and early Tuesday- then Up. Dips R ( good for ) Us.

F*-damn attorney's-mess with your mind! ; )

Mozel- furthering our education, again.

Tom

I could recommend Ira Epstein
-discount rates, but have received good customer support when needed
-free end-of-day data, plus charting software
-call John Hackner, 1-800-284-1093
Good Luck, and go gold!

I like your dialogue. It's philosophically interesting.
I think the value of commodities is based on a human need. They satisfy a human need: like pork bellies, soybeans, wheat, silver, copper.
There is a need for human consumption or for technical use.
That's why these commodities have, in my understanding, intrinsic value.
Their value can also expressed in the cost which they have accumulated as a product: their production cost. Of course, the market itself doesn't care about their cost. The market cares about supply and demand.
But the demand is there based on a real need. So it's basically the need which drives the commodity market.

Now, in a way, that's true and not true for gold. The "need" for gold is somedthing very special and completely different from the need for oil or soybeans. In almost all cultures, also the pre-Columbian American cultures, felt attracted to gold as an aestetic value. Everybody can theoretically survive without gold if all the other needs are satisfied.

What makes gold so special is that it is not for consuption. Even the part which is used for decoration is preserved over thousands of years. Gold, once it is mined, will be preserved among humans for ever. Therefore it probably represents the ultimate intrinsic value among all materials and human goods.

Having said that, I have a tendency to believe, that there is a difference between investment and speculation and something else: to obtain a store of value which you keep for ever. My personal approach to gold, the real thing, coins and bullion, is dominated by the last one: I want to keep it "forever". Therefore, I'm not approaching the gold market sufficiently with the attitude of an investor and not as a speculator. I have a easier time to look at pork bellies with the eyes of a cold booded speculator. With gold, even if I buy call options ( i.e., I never buy gold put options! never! I just cant! ) I stay kind of "irrational".

Hope I didn't bore you with my philosophies!

Alberich the Dwarf

Mike Sheller: Jim Rogers wasa right in 1996 and most of 1997; he has been WRONG for the past 6 months. Anybody listening to him would never have bought any gold stocks and would have missed the very nice moves we have had of late. I was indeed wrong in 1997, but I have been right for the past 6 months.

And I still say he knows nothing about gold. If he was right for awhile, he was right for the wrong reasons. Massive hedge fund shorting and the huge dollar bull -- not CB selling -- was primarily responsible for the vicious bear.

Anybody waiting for a signal from Jim Rogers to jump aboard is going to miss the train. Right Ray!

BTW, Mike what is YOUR OPINION on gold now?

Aye, to envy.perchance to respectwhich will it be, sir?
I very well may ENVY a man who has more money and power than me, and I suppose there are
many of these such men. I feel, in business, we are trained to envy, you do know, motivation
otherwise the GNP would not grow. And I suppose I marvel at this wealthy fellows luck,
insight and market-making abilities. Nowadays, a man such as this, an investment banker, can
accumulate not only money, power and material wealth, but he can harvest high regard from many
circles, receiving great praise and acknowledgment from the popular press. He is the new-age
monoliththe realitythe way. And the new generation of business people, some of which are
already leading, study in minute detail the money-making methods of the monolith. They learn.

This is where I have my problem. It is the modern publics opinion of the fruitful act of passive
investing. This unthrottled investing ( which translates into okie as the wordbetting ) in anothers work
or product with the purpose of profit, often subjects the maker of the product to market winds that may easily and unpredictably blow away his work, and his dream. The investor, the trader, the speculatorthey extract and claim any gain that exists as a result of the workers creation. Ironically and lamentably, the workers product may very well be sufficiently in demand and his product may be produced in a most efficient manner; however, the market conditions resulting from the speculative investment are changed dramatically, sometimes fatally. Is this supply and demand? Not really, the market has changed as a result of the speculation in future market conditions.

Today, I have learned this way of doing business and I proudly proclaim that my producing
company ( we actually produce products ) has profitably grown in spite of these coercive
investment forces. I also must add that I consider our continued existence to be a benevolent miracle which blesses me and my fellow workers.

One can argue, with probable success, that this investment capital is the fuel than runs our
industrial engine. However, how many of the 15 trillion U.S. dollars presently stationed in the equity markets actually make their way into the hands of the producers? Very few, relatively speaking, for the investment betting business has become the industry. And now I can argue, with probable success, the investment game has yielded, among many unfavorable things, a citizenry which is compelled to tolerate and accept the likes of a Bill Clinton.

The BET has been raised to such a level, and the majority has stayed in the game so long ( hit me just one more time! ) , that the investment industry increasingly formulates moral and ethical codes. Not only through the time-tested method of monetary contribution to our politicians, but now the investment game has become the primary motivation of the invested voters. Wow, now we have bet it all. My, oh my.

I DO NOT RESPECT GEORGE SOROS, any of his partners, or any of the likes of him. I DO RESPECT, however, my FELLOW workers who invest their time, money, sweat, blood and dreams to create a product that makes life better. I DO NOT RESPECT a man who has the power, money, trading acumen and INCLINATION to speculate in a countrys currency, for example, whereby the countrys economy is greatly harmed. I DO RESPECT the business owner, the terrorized worker in that affected country who picks himself up, determinedly dusts herself off, and somehow musters the strength of character to get about helping her/his fellow man yet again.

And to me, fear is not the same as respect. I have very little fear of anybody because I am fortunate to hold gold. I wish all my fellows owned gold and were given their due respect and reward for their work.

Yes, Jimmy probably has a lot more money than I , and I guess I may envy that a bithuman nature or maybe, capitalistic nature I suppose. But you may rest assured that Jimmy and what he represents to me, and the others like him, reside comfortably at the bottom of my list of those whom I respect. I also carry with me the notion that what goes around, comes around. Or as deftly expressed by a wonderful cattle producer from Hereford, Tejas ( this is a repeatbut worthy ) Ronnie, its like wipin your ass with a bicycle tire, it just keeps comin round to get ya And yes, I DO RESPECT this fellow I quote. Respectfully to you, studio.r

Hi. Did you see Donald's recent post? Looks like you've got your Secretary of the Treasury. I nominate him. How about Mozel for the Judiciary? If you gave Studio Sec. of State, everybody would like us and cooperate with their radical notions. This is getting interesting.

Contrary to 'boring' us, you have illuminated something central and special!
Someone I much admired once said that we might pinpoint the emergence of what we think of as man as that point in time when we begin to see superfluous beauty in the artifacts of the culture. Humankind has needs beyond food and shelter, yes? {:- )

I seldom do what I am about to do. Does ANYBODY have a strong belief ( opinion ) as to what the price of SILVER is going to do between now and 1 June "98? UP? DOWN? SIDEWAYS? What? Please don't say "It will fluctuate!" That line has already been used.

There are several posters, the opinions to which I pay especial attention, but I would like to hear ANYBODY with strong conviction express themselves. I've heard a lot of opinions expressed on the near-time POG, but noone lately on the POS. RJ, where are you when I need you?

Please forgive me if someone has dealt with the POS lately: I may have missed it.

@Sheeler & Promethus Your approval and appreciation are an honor. Sincerely.

@Dr Donald Excellent prescription. ( But, for the next iteration, eliminate the moral hazard of limited liability, please. I think it's already well established. )

@Factoids From ANOTHER
Interbank transfer rate for gold is $6,000.00 per oz today.
BIS does not recognize other currencies as reserves as they are themselves a dollar product ( derivative ) .
Chinese were heavily buying gold and paper gold through Hong Kong agent ( may additionally explain 167 tons of gold to China via Australia with US approval; i.e. to prevent crush at LBMA ) .

APH put a big stake in the ground on silver rising til mid-May. Look back a few days for the APH posts.

BBML

Mike - do you have any comment on teh SSC warrants? Which would you by now. Are the farther out ones too NEAR to be any good? Would it be better to stick with the SILVW'S in expectation of the May pop and then rethink?

SSC Warrants
SILVZ + $1.38 Until 2001
SILVW+ $$2.12 Until 1999

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgold.html This illustrates the breakout he provided on his charts.

world wide,talk all you like,stock up brothers it's closer than we all think......I am truly convinced we are ONE CRISIS AWAY FROM A WORLD GOVERNMENT

Mozel@the.lyceum debts one accepts with honor and graditude..."O! he doth teach the torches to burn bright..."

Studio.R@more.than.a.little IMPRESSED!

--------------------------------------

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 18:29

OLD GOLD ( Jim Rogers ) ID#238295:

And I still say he knows nothing about gold. If he was right for awhile, he was right for the wrong reasons.

Massive hedge fund shorting and the huge dollar bull -- not CB selling -- was primarily responsible for the vicious

bear.

--------------------------------------

ALL the MAJOR drops last year in POG were a DIRECT result of CB's announcing their gold sales.....and even announcing they are thinking about selling gold.........how can you say they weren't????????????????? ( ! ) ( ? ) HUH ( ? ) ALL the commentary now in support of the 'new' gold bull are that CB's are FINISHED selling their gold..... ( for now ) . C'mon GSC. How have you been right for six months......that means you were right back in NOVEMBER when gold was not even at it's lows and you were still looking for moves to 400.......... ( ? ) I am scratching the bejesus outta my head....... ( ? )

away...from untruths



you are stepping on it again......

EB getting more and more vile and vicious. An RJ clone to be sure. In fact much worse than RJ -- his ideological soulmate.

I treasure your kind words, simply because I greatly respect your work and admire that which you STAND for. Thank you gentlemen.

...well written piece. Very nice.

Thanks.

F*

The following fundamentals are the reason why I have made and maintain a very significant investment in silver:

1. Demand exceeds supply by 100 to 200 million ounces per year;

2. Above ground inventory has declined for several years now; and

3. A sustained price of $8 to $10 per ounce is necessary to bring new supplies on line.

Silver is a thin market and relatively small flows of funds into or out of the market can cause wild fluctuations, up or down. Nevertheless, the trend is up and the fundamentals support the trend.

Consequently, the outlook between now and June or at anytime in the future is for higher prices, realizing that short term influences may drive the price sharply in either direction. Keeping in mind that at current prices the entire inventory of silver could be purchased for a few billion dollars, one cannot rule out a tremendous spike upward in price, particularly if the equity markets experience a serious setback.

If you are an investor, buy silver now and if the price falls, buy more of it. If you are a speculator, the outlook is up but the risks of a volatile market will always be there.

I have been following Kitco for some time now. I have benefited from all of the information shared over this forum. However, I have not found anyone who has been able to accurately predict the short term movements in the price of silver with regularity.

In short, if you can't do the time, don't do the crime.

I am a beneficiary of your confidence...and this will profit me greatly. I am sure. Thanks.

...now that's a winner.

Thanks.

F*

I know they used to open at 7PM est.

For those of you who missed my post last night on how to obtain the free Veneroso Fax subscription. I just got home and haven't read this yet myself nor have I checked to see if anyone else posted it. Below is the contents of the first installment.

Gold

* More Confirmation That There Are 8000 Tonnes of Outstanding Gold Loans
* It Is Obvious, We Were Misquoted By Barron's

Since the third quarter of last year, we have argued that outstanding gold
loans are far greater than consensus estimates. It is widely believed that
outstanding gold deposits and swaps were 3,500 tonnes at the end of 1997. We
estimate there were 7,500 tonnes of official sector deposits and swaps at that
date. In addition, there were perhaps 500 tonnes of private deposits that
funded gold loans. We have arrived at these conclusions from several
different directions, which we set forth in the first issue of our Gold Book
Annual.

Our estimate of 8,000 tonnes of gold deposits and swaps greatly exceeds
consensus estimates and has understandably generated much controversy and
skepticism. Until recently, third party sources had reported to us that:
1 ) A few dealers thought that the prevailing consensus estimate of 3500
tonnes was basically correct;
2 ) Most dealers thought this consensus estimate was too low and that our
estimate was in the right direction but too high; and
3 ) Five, especially well placed dealers, thought our estimate was either
correct or too low.

Over the last two weeks, we have received two new inputs, again through third
parties. One important dealer's estimate of official deposits and swaps
exceeds our estimate of 7,500 tonnes. Another well placed dealer estimates
that the London gold loan book alone is more than 3,500 tonnes. We believe
that the London book is less than half of the global book, which would project
a global estimate that is close to ours. So far, seven well-placed bullion
dealers have told third parties that our estimate is basically correct.

From what we can tell, the bullion dealers do not want the true size of the
gold loan market disclosed. For this reason, they tend to provide estimates
of the size of this market to both us and the media that are lower than they
provide to certain third parties. This is understandable. Gold lending is a
major source of revenue and profit for the world's bullion bankers. At the
same time, it is understood that, taken in the aggregate, 8,000 tonnes of gold
loans outstanding represents a short position that could be a source of
considerable instability at some point in the future.

For us, the size of the gold loan market is important for two reasons.
First, it is a large short position that may eventually have to be covered.
Second, if our 8,000 tonne estimate is correct, there has been a cumulative
supply of gold from gold loans that exceeds GFMS' estimates by roughly 4500
tonnes. Most of that supply occurred over the last decade and on an
increasing scale. This suggest that there have been annual borrowed gold
flows in recent years that exceed GFMS estimates by 500-600 tonnes per annum.
We have calculated from World Gold Council data that global gold demand may
have exceeded GFMS estimates by 500-600 tonnes in recent years. ( Again, our
evidence for these positions is set forth in detail in our first issue of the
Gold Book Annual ) . Both these theses imply a deficit in the gold market that
exceeds GFMS estimates by 500-600 tonnes. This means that the gold market
deficit is less sustainable than is widely believed and that the gold price
must eventually rise more that most think in order to clear the gold market
once official sector sales and lending cease.

Barrons interviewed us for their commodities corner last week. They
misquoted us on the gold price outlook for 1998. We responded with the
following letter:

April 21, 1998
Ms. Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
Barron's Commodities Corner

Dear Cheryl:
I must have failed to make myself clear during our conversation on the
telephone the other day. Our clients have been calling about your article in
Barrons quoting me as expecting the gold price to trade between $290 and $315
this year, since it is so removed from our basic forecast. We believe that
the gold market remains capped by EMU related official selling. We have
stated that, over the short run, the gold market will probably trade sideways
( $290-$315 ) until this selling abates. We expect it to abate this year. Most
likely it will abate in coming months and it may abate by early May. When it
does abate we expect the gold market to recover to its trading range of
$370-$410 of 1994-1996. I am enclosing two recent pieces to clients that made
these points.

In our view, a trading range of $370-$410 is consistent with a 1000 tonne per
annum flow of official gold encompassing both official sales and gold loans.
We set forth our reasons for this position in great detail in our forthcoming
book. Eventually this official flow will cease altogether. In this book we
have created various market forecasts based on several assumptions regarding
the outlook for this flow of official gold. I am enclosing one such
simulation. It shows the gold price recovering to the $370-$410 range over
the next year and a half with an abatement in official flows, followed by a
damped oscillation to a much higher gold price equilibrium once these official
flows cease altogether.

I expect the second round of galleys of our book imminently. As I indicated
in our conversation, I would be very willing to give you a copy for your
perusal when they arrive.

Signed, Frank Veneroso

Veneroso Associates
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.
Gold Watch
Vol. 06.03





Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
April 22, 1998
Issue 04.05

Frank Veneroso
Telephone 603-430-8482
Facsimile 603-430-8598

Why do you think we are close to a one world government? What signs do you see? You are probably right. The bible promises a world government will be set up by the anti-christ, along with a world religion.

Globex -190, OZ dollar .6488 ( -24 )

S&P 500 JUN98 1110.90 -190
E-MINI JUN98 1111.00 -175
SEP98 1123.00A -200
NSDQ100 JUN98 1256.50B -400

:- )

Thank you. Tom

Thank you. Tom

You sure ? Right ! We all have our serious sides. Very good post !

Agreements on Investment..is the other World Net Daily had a great cover story last week,check it out I am sure it's in there archives.ONE CRISIS AWAY FROM WORLD GOVERNMENT.......for another web story on MAI go to the Winds archive scroll down to economy look for THE TRADE AGREEMENT FROM HELL http://www.worldnetdaily.com http://www.thewinds.org

Whew!

The new 'religion' will be e n v i r o m e n t a l i s m.

Date: Sun Apr 26 1998 16:31
James ( From SI@Thought provoking perspectives --The few have the many @ a disadvantage )
ID#252150:--------------
JAMES- would you be good enough to please email a reply to the following
questions- who is SI, what do you think of his post?
Almost everything he says, as an "old pro" is more than debatable.
What are his credentials?
Thanks for replying to Reify@sitcom.co.il

All- for what it's worth- for the next few ( 3-5 ) weeks, I believe
the TAs show the PMs will correct. It should be a good time for
traders, and for accumulators to stock up at lower prices

If you want an online broker that only takes your order and does not recomend or advise you, I have had very good luck with the folowing companies. Both will answer your email questions rapidly as well as answer the phone if you call them. You are on your own though, make a mistake, you pay for it, they make one, they pay for it. Most of their free services ( quotes, charts, etc ) are very good, especially the futures broker.

For stocks I use First Flushing ( it's not a joke, Flushing is the name of the town in NY where they are ) . The quotes given you, just before you place and order, are realtime and they also give 100 free realtime quotes per sale, I think. They charge $9.95 for any size trade, same for Limit and Market Orders and no difference btween Listed and OTC Stocks. They also sell socks under $1.00 per share for the same price. Options do not sell for $9.95 - they cost more. They used to not allow stop orders on Nasdaq but I think that has been changed. They also offer unlimited realtime quotes for $29.00 per month.

First Flushing's web site: http://www.firstflushing.com/


For futures I use Xpresstrade. They give you FREE realtime quotes and realtime interactive charts ( updated every 60 seconds ) on all futures on the larger exchanges. They did the best job of programming I have seen on a brokerage web site. Their site is well thought out from a day traders point of view. I have only two complaints about their site. One, their quote page uses BRIGHT red when the futures are going down and the red bleeds out so much it is hard to read. ( and I have adjusted my monitor - a lot ) . The possibility of mis-reading a quote worries me. Two, their realtime charts use a black background with low intensity white for the numbers and graph lines, which again, makes it hard to read. ( They are discussing changing it. ) There is also a problem with printing the interactive charts. This is a Java problem and they say that as soon as Java upgrades to allow printing in the interactive mode, they will install it. Otherwise I am in love. Their demo gives a very good idea of what the real system is like. So go there and do your homework before you decide they are good for you, the same with First Flushing.

XpressTrade's web site: http://www.xpresstrade.com/

Skeptic,
Please show the address/site you used to see the nikkie index market?
thanks advance...

Japan / Nikkei 225 / ^N225 / 8:42PM / 15853.15 / -158.09 / -0.99%

I think silver is headed for five bucks an ounce, strictly on technical basis.

Japan Nikkei 225^N225 8:51PM 15802.95 -208.29 -1.30%

Thanks for the on line broker leads- we've come a long ways baby from the old days.

I think Veneroso's comments to Barrons are particularly rlelavant and timely. Seems the large short position in lend gold abscent the selling by central banks sets the stage for a significant rally in the PMs. Lets see what the market does with the Swiss gold sales non news. My guess is that the PM will dip ever sooo slightly Monday and maybe Tuesday then rally. The situation in silver is particularly interesting. The market has wedged itself into a tight little triangle on rapidly declining open interest. My bet is a false down move followed by a shot upwards to $7 driven by short covering and longs reentering as bullish technicals are flashed.

Anybody have any news on the Comex delivery situation. Had seen comments here that 4000+ contracts still were up for delivery.

I have the Neiki down 156 points. My fear is that weak stock markets may keep the preasure on mining stocks until break outs are seen above $317 gold and $6.50 silver.

While you are on lawyers Erle, there's more of those SOB's in Philadelphia, then the whole country of Japan. Thats a fact!! That is probably why W.C. Fields said "I would rather be here than Philadelphia", or was that the other way around?

Whither the gold price in Asia?

ALL,

Monday April 27 1998
AGENCIES in Tokyo

Japan's latest economic stimulus package should cushion the Japanese
and regional stock markets this week, but gains may be limited because
of a lack of market confidence in its effectiveness.

Investors were also cautious about possible currency fluctuations and
Wall Street stocks that some thought were overheated, brokers said.

They expected the Nikkei-225 Index to trade between the 15,500 and
16,500-point levels for the next few days.

"The Nikkei managed to climb above 16,000, but it will not be easy for it
to hit 16,500," said Shigeru Yoshida, an analyst at Wako Securities Co.

On Friday, the Nikkei ended at 16,011.24, up 307.44 points or 1.96
per cent from the previous week's close, buoyed by rumours that the
government's temporary tax cuts would be made permanent.

Mr Yoshida said the package released on Friday would underpin the
market, but it would be difficult to break out of its range.

"We'll have to see effectiveness of the package," Mr Yoshida said.

The stimulus package worth more than 16 trillion yen ( about HK$945.08
billion ) includes 12 trillion yen in real demand stimulus, with almost eight
trillion yen in public works spending, and an extra four trillion yen in
special income tax cuts.

Noriyuki Fujiwara, director at Credit Suisse Investment Trust
Management Co, said: "Without overall structural reforms, the [stimulus]
package will only stimulate buying in the market for the short term."

A dealer at a European securities house in Tokyo said: "We can't test the
downside due to the package, but it will be difficult for the Nikkei to rise
strongly unless our scepticism about government policies is wiped out."

Economists said Asian markets would find the stimulus package
reassuring for a few weeks, but gloom would resurface when the next
survey on business confidence confirmed a bleak outlook.

"It will encourage markets," said Jan Lee, chief economist at Hongkong
and Shanghai Banking Corp.

"Markets will rally temporarily, it will give the yen a boost. But it'll last no
more than three months - until the next [business confidence survey]."

The yen stood at 129.76 to the US dollar in late trading on Friday.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly survey shocked markets two weeks ago
when it unveiled a dramatic plunge in business confidence, prompting
calls for tough action to stimulate the economy.

Japanese bonds are likely to be little changed as investors look for clues
on whether the temporary income tax cuts will be made permanent.

"Until we know for sure whether the Liberal Democratic Party plans to
make income tax cuts permanent, it's hard to make a move," said Shinichi
Fukuda, a fund manager at Sumitomo Life Insurance Asset Management
Co.

Finance Minister Hikaru Matsunaga said on Friday that the party and
government panels were studying permanent income tax cuts.




Follow Up:

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Japanese market not listiening to the Yahoo news release below. Asian markets look like they will be in for trouble this week.

S&P on Globex off 250

Any quotes on gold??

I don't understand, who pulls the strings on this idiot Hashimoto puppet ? Japan has huge reserves that can be unleashed and yet these
lawyer-politicians seem to answer only to some unknown forces.....

Sunday April 26, 8:08 pm Eastern Time

Japan public want Hashimoto to step down -- poll

TOKYO, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Japanese surveyed in a poll by a major newspaper published on Monday said they were unimpressed by a record-breaking economic stimulus package announced last week and a majority wanted Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to step down.

The survey taken on April 25 and 26 by the mass-circulation Asahi Shimbun had 57 percent of respondents calling for a change in government.

The reason most people gave was Hashimoto's handling of the flagging economy, and 43 percent of the respondents thought the 16.65 trillion yen ( $127 billion ) pump-priming package announced last week would be ineffective.

A meagre 36 percent took the opposite view, believing the measures would work.

Hashimoto himself gleaned only a 28 percent approval rating, the lowest in an Asahi survey since he took office in 1996.

``These survey results show the magnitude of the people's dissatisfaction with the uncertain economic future we face,'' the Asahi said.

( $1 equals 131 yen )

You bought gold calls. I bought ABX puts. Somebody is gonna lose money...maybe both of us, if POG goes nowhere! Good luck :- )

minus 55 cents

You have expressed the opinions in your 18:49 before, but never as eloquently. The silver pen goes to you today. Thank you.

Did you happen to see SDRer's of 13:29 and 14:44? From another perspective, valuer, pricer. Producer, gambler. The lines are being drawn. We must continue to dream the best of all possible worlds, so that we might create it for our children.

Time, history, fashion, nothing changes the inscrutability of the Japanese. They NEVER telegraph what they are doing or thinking. But I feel certain the Japanese are presently hurting... and hurting BADLY.
I TRULY ADMIRE THIER ABILITY TO STAND PAIN. But they think - as always - of fightng to the last singletary man.

Tonight, the Nikkei is already down another 200 points. But the Nippons have cut off what the gold price is doing in Tokyo. In that respect they are more discreet than a cat in heat.

Based upon studies made by acclaimed expert John Kutyn, the Japanese economy and banking system are going to tank!!!!! This will obliga the BOJ to dump US Treasuries en masse - forcing international interest rate skywards. Consequently, world stock markets will tank!!!

Gold is the only alternative. The Nippons know this... and are buying hand over fist.

Jin How are you?
Even though your request for Nikkei was addressed to SKEPTIC I hope
this will be of some help to you. Be well!
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.html

-288

down 45 usa cents

..

Sunday April 26, 8:43 pm Eastern Time

MOF Sakakibara to hold news briefing--MOF official

TOKYO, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Eisuke Sakakibara, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, is planning to hold a news conference on Monday to clarify remarks that he made on Friday, an official at the Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) said.

The official told Reuters that the news conference could come at around 10 a.m. ( 0100 GMT ) , while a ministry spokesman said that he could not confirm the time.

Haruhiko Kuroda, director-general of the MOF's International Finance Bureau, said he believed Sakakibara wished to clarify remarks he made to Reuters Television on Friday, but said he did not know whether Sakakibara would be holding a news conference to do so.

Sakakibara told Reuters Television in an interview on Friday that Japan is not suffering significantly from problem bank loans but added that some relatively large banks could fail.

Sakakibara, Japan's most influential financial diplomat, said the insurance system to protect depositors had been beefed up and that ``the closure of relatively large banks is possible.'' He added that bankruptcies of some banks are probably unavoidable.

OK so the markets tank this week. This won't be like 29. In 29 most people lived in the country, they raised chickens in the back yard, had gardens. This time most of the N.A. population are in cities and VERY dependent. Large, bankrupt corporations that own big grocery stores may close their outlets.
I fear for my fellow human beings. I have disliked with a passion the way N.A. society has acted in my lifetime, the waste, the garbage worship, the usubstantial becoming worth more than the substantial, but I hate to see the hurt that may befall all of us.

-294.51

Sunday April 26, 8:46 pm Eastern Time

Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via 10 firms

TOKYO, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed for Japanese stocks by foreign investors through 10
foreign securities houses before the start of trading on Monday showed a net selling stance of 5.8
million shares, market sources said.

Foreign investor sell orders totalled 27.30 million shares, against buy orders of 21.50 million shares.

I thought that this post would be of interest to some of the worthy GBs
who have been trying to address some of the more complex issues that will affect our
investments & even our way & quality of life. I feel that HE makes a lot of sense & although
his views are very eclectic HE makes a strong case for a higher POG.

Although I'm still long, I agree with him that AU is a trading vehicle... At least until the apocalypse & if we get to that point, I will be imbibing & consuming enough substances, that I really won't care.

Ouch! $5.00/oz. silver. Well, I DID ask. Hope you're wrong. But I've been down that road before. Silver HAS been looking kinda soft lately.

...you trade in and out of gold this month...
...and I will simply buy and hold...

Let's see what results.

Thanks.

F*

ETHICS OF DISAGREEMENT [from Islamic voice]
http://www.islamicvoice.com/april'98/feat1.htm#ETH

It demonstrates, does it not, the broad base of commonality civil
folks share! {:- )

Silver may look soft, but if the shorts beat the price down anywhere near $5.50, they may bring the genie back out of the bottle... And if he publically acknowledges buying more, then I suspect the folks who bought and then held on at $7.50/ oz will be rewarded. I think the next big move will not be technical, but will occur when COMEX inventories make a drop.

along "scientific" principles. It was not. Common law judges rendered verdicts while looking back over their shoulders and winking at the King. In turn, the King bestowed favors, and frequently land, on those judges and their families/friends. It is this system that America inherited.

Law cannot be "scientific" in the strict sense of the word, because legal "principles" do not hold steady from one geographic area to another, and a good look at American case law will prove that point. Decisions vary greatly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

Common law is the ideal of the common man, and great will be the rejoicing on the day that mankind can implement it successfully. I'm not holding my breath.
IMHO

along "scientific" principles. It was not. Common law judges rendered verdicts while looking back over their shoulders and winking at the King. In turn, the King bestowed favors, and frequently land, on those judges and their families/friends. It is this system that America inherited.

Law cannot be "scientific" in the strict sense of the word, because legal "principles" do not hold steady from one geographic area to another, and a good look at American case law will prove that point. Decisions vary greatly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

Common law is the ideal of the common man, and great will be the rejoicing on the day that mankind can implement it successfully. I'm not holding my breath.
IMHO

FWIW Second week of June a top. Last week of July a bottom.
Third week of August a top.

- damn computers.

Incisive conclusion. I think you're right!

Until recently it was my opinion that the announcements by the Swiss about selling excess gold were aimed at keeping the price of gold down.

I have changed my mind and I think that the opposite is true. The swiss seem to re-iterate their intent to sell gold whenever the price rises and world media attention is again refocused on that poor 'dog' gold.

I think quite simply that they are afraid that as the price of gold rises and attention focused on the metal, they will pointed at again as having benefited from stolen Nazi gold.

They react by saying 'We are going to sell gold'...

And the net impact is that the price drops because 'The swiss know everything about gold and if they are selling, it must be pretty useless stuff'.

However, I do think that the story is wearing thin and transparent.

Isure...I too realize that we're both sure...uncanny, the similarities of thought, huh? thanks.

Promey, I almost ditched that post because of posting problems...your earlier comment encouraged me to resurrect it...thanks to you. I really think Kitco is quite powerful....pertinent, efficient data collection meshed with the analytical work and wonderfully versed opinion. A grand experiment, eh?

ALL -- re. Japan:

IYHO -- Just how bad does the Nikkei have to get before it's bad?

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

has allowed me to see the buttons!??
Quien sabe?

YOU ASK: "jonesy ( Japan / Nikkei 225 / ^N225 / 9:57PM / 15756.94 / -254.30 / -1.59% ) - IYHO -- Just how bad does the Nikkei have to get before it's bad?

The Japanese have just entered Dante's Fifth Ring of HELL!!! And as ol'
LBJ used to say, "it's gonna get a helleva worst before it gets any better!"

There have been rumours re: ECB gold reserve announcement. Some say May; some say potponed till June/July. Does anyone have any facts.

I wonder if anyone noticed it..

That's bad. Of course, we're not enjoying this, are we?

Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
10:28PM
10707.99
-171.94
-1.58%
India
BSE 30
^BSESN
Apr 24
4050.98
-41.25
-1.01%
Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
^JKSE
10:30PM
490.640
+0.159
+0.03%
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
10:02PM
15757.04
-254.20
-1.59%
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
^KLSE
10:28PM
631.20
-3.91
-0.62%
New Zealand
NZSE 40
^NZ40
10:29PM
2285.81
-37.01
-1.59%
Pakistan
Karachi 100
^KSE
Apr 24
1610.53
-5.90
-0.37%
Philippines
PSE Composite
^PSI
10:28PM
2147.02
-6.89
-0.32%
Singapore
Straits Times
^SS1
10:26PM
1488.99
-2.29
-0.15%

REF: "jonesy ( @ vronsky re. Japan ) - That's bad. Of course, we're not enjoying this, are we?"

Are you just plain stupid, ignorant or naive?! The last two traits are pardonable, the first is unforgivable.

Before you make asinine remarks again to this forum, why not make some positive contibutions of your own. Forgive, I cannot remember one iota of intelligence you ever added to our group. To go on would be wasting my time on trash.....

Headlines from DNYA
"IFC Credit to Osmanli Bank Osmanli Bank is to be on road show for US$ 100 million of IFC ( International Finance Corporation ) credit, on 7 year term."
http://www.dunya.com/latest.html

The WB is particularly crafty in 'hiding' its activities
behind a screen--nay, in a JUNGLE!--of subsidiary organizations. Some weeks back we discussed the mmmm...'sweetners' that were quid pro quo for
Turkish policy changes regarding Islamic economic programs.

Where do you find the POG.

Donald__A ( Criminals will prefer the new Euro over the U.S. dollar. )

Does this mean that, in American eyes, all Europeans are criminals ?
A throw back to WWII.

Or, given the nature if things, Criminals recognise a "good thing" when they see it ?

The US Dollar - what the eye doesn't see, the feet will fall over !

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/0426in03.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.year2000.co.nz/y2kher29.htm
The reality of millennium meltdown
"There was an image in my mind of billions of date calculations which at the stroke of midnight 1999 would turn into Cinderella's pumpkin."
"I've looked at the code, 1 know it will break. It's an observation, not a prediction."
"Japan will melt"
"What is mission-critical? Safety, human lives must be important."
"You can find them by eye, take out the hay piece by piece. You can automate the process, but you will miss some. Or you can strip naked and dive in."
"That will be the reality. We won't get all our code fixed. The real test will come in 2000 when we all get naked and dive into that hay pile."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Vronsky
You must have got out of the wrong side of your bed.
What a pity.

I am guilty and probably 90% of the posters, if they would only
admit it, of chatter that doesn't matter.

I fear you don't know a tongue-in-cheek comment when you see one. Jonesy is OK. Lighten up, friend!

IDT: Thanks for the Venneroso fax! Confirms what I said earlier about Barron's misquoting him.

Looks like gold and gold stocks may head south for a few days before blasting off again. I expect to see lots of bearish posts here in the very near future.

This is not a Club, but an Open Forum !

There are always people whom one should like to shun, but would not wish to be shunned by !?

Kitco is updating gold prices at: http://www.kitconet.com/gold.live.html

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/netly/opinion/0%2c1042%2c1929%2c00.html
 The most disturbing part of the Year 2000 thing is that the more you know about it, the more spooked you get. Recently we've been talking to programmers who are predicting -- and preparing for -- severe social problems when computers touch 1-1-00
 Indeed, Ulrich believes that The Panic could be worse than The Bug.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. Urged to Speed Its Year 2000 Fix
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-04/24/076l-042498-idx.html
The federal government faces an "ugly" situation if it does not step up efforts to correct the year 2000 programming error in its agencies' computers, the head of the world's largest chipmaker said yesterday.
Andrew S. Grove, chief executive of Intel Corp., gave an assessment far more pessimistic than is commonly heard from Silicon Valley executives.
Grove predicted the Asian currency crisis would linger for at least 10 quarters and that it would take a chunk out of Intel's worldwide growth rate for a number of years.
"Without the Internet, we [Intel] would all be toast," Grove said.

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
April 26, 1998
10:24PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
311.90
312.40
-0.50
-0.16%
SILVER
6.23
6.28
-0.02
-0.32%
PLATINUM
411.50
413.50
+2.60
+0.64%
PALLADIUM
380.00
390.00
+4.00
+1.06%

HighRise

Good evening. Your bagpipe posts of a couple of days back were very funny. However, I fear I don't concur. Always enjoyed the sound of them, and would welcome any neighbor who practised them daily. Can't say the same for some neighbor woman who used to practice opera with her window open some years back. Didn't kill her, though I was sorely tempted.

Had an uncle who donned the kilt and played the bagpipes every fourth of July parade. Miss him still.

But Donald is just quoting his news service. You don't think his tongue was anywhere but his cheek, now, do you? It's the endless excuse of the USGuvment for outrageous rules and regs re reportage of all transactions over $10,000. And virtually everything out of the country. They can't admit that they're running this poor ol' country into the third world. So pretend that all their foolish controls against sending money outta the country are to stop "drug dealers" and "terrorists". Don't fool many of us, though.

Current level of Nikkei............ in the sh*t !

Below 15 000 point level .......... in deep sh*t !

Below 14 000 point level .......... all over red rover, they will have to engage a series of Scottish Financial Advisors !

Did you hear what McTavish did with his first fifty cent piece ?
He married her !

A Scotsman has a sense of humour - because it's free !

Och aye the nooooooooooooo.................

Thanks.

Thank you for an excellent glimpse into your culture. If only we all remembered such wisdom, even for one day!

Now, goodnight. I am sorely wounded. Some da** fool has, on Friday night, gone and shot up and murdered a teacher he never had, to make an impression during his eighth grade graduation dance. At a school where I once danced, in a town I know and love. Where my friends' kids attend school, and family teaches. I am too angry to cry. Got to go and sort it out. Thank you, and Mozel, Studio.r, Donald for being a counterpoint to a world I couldn't otherwise tolerate on this sad occasion. With love, L.

...and not for the gold market-for your fellow human beings. nite all Tom

Billy Connolly, a Scots comedian, "comes out" wearing a Kilt on an American comedy show...........the things people do for a living ?

Yksnorv .... he has willed his body to science, and science is contesting the will !

Earlier you asked what my opinion is currently on gold. I would have thought it well known here by now. I am a long term gold bull. In 1995 I published a report calling for a major gold bottom in the Fall/Winter of '97. It was based PURELY on astrology. I was right for the RIGHT reasons. I believe we are putting in a base now for a bull market that will see gold in the thousands of dollars an ounce in the next decade. I said this at Kitco, if you recall, long before Brother Another appeared. It's nice to have such exquisite and refined company. I own gold shares, in the past year have made a commitment as a director in a public gold and silver mining and natural resources company, and am still buying bullion as my modest resources allow. I think you would find me a "true believer" and without blemish in that regard. I am even more positive on silver, but that's something else. My view is longterm.

Please note left side vert. scale distorted, peaks are actually higher.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=my

HighRise

May every man become what he thinks himself to be.

Not too sure how that applies to Vronsky ????

Och aye the nooooooooooooooooo................

Mike Sheller: That is what I thought. But I suspect your self confidence in that positive forecast has been eroded by Jimmy Rogers' perisitent bearishness.

Mike if such long time bears as Hepcat, APH, and Selby can turn positive on POG perhaps there is hope for Jimmy Rogers. In any event this subject has been done to death and I will now cease and desist.

I have the greatest respect for your calls on all the markets.

Thank you

I really want to buy some silver after watching other precious metals skyrocket while waiting for golds turn. I see the fundamental supply/demand imbalance as similiar to AU, plus Buffet votes AG also.

I just want to hear your opinion because a position in silver would not be as useful in my business as gold should an upturn not happen. In other words, should gold go nowhere, I can still use it to make inventory.

Aye Haggis

Now I understand why you are such a pleasant fellow. You remind me of my all-time favorite Scotsman: the incomparable ANDREW CARNEGIE ( 1835-1919 ) .

He was the only man in the business world who bested JP Morgan! When he sold his businesses to the JP Morgan consorsium, the Scotsman became the wealthiest man in the world -- we're talking before 1915.

Carnegie was a salesman par excellence. Stories say GOLD was his "God." His favorite motto was "put all your eggs in one basket, AND WATCH THAT BASKET!" were he alive today, i wonder if he would put all his eggs in the gold basket?

A bit of trivia. He married when he was 51 - she was 22 years his junior. He first became a father at 62!!!!

He confessed he was motivated by UNQUALIFIED SELFISHNESS.

aye...