Some may wonder why I bother with this. I have held my tongue through recent snipes, but OLD GSC has the halo on again and his words today again contradict his words of yesterday.

OLD GSC Wrote today:

"Massive hedge fund shorting and the huge dollar bull -- not CB selling -- was primarily responsible for the vicious bear."

And

"While there has been some modest CB selling these alleged huge supplies waiting in the wings are nothing but a myth used by the shorts to scare the longs."

However Last June He wrote:

"Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:23

George S. Cole ( gscole@ix.netcom.com ) :

Gene: You implicitly assume the prime objective of the anti-gold CBs ( not all CBs by any means ) is to maximize the proceeds from gold sales. I have a different take. Their main objective is to prevent or at least delay a big rise in gold prices. Their motto is -- "keep the paper bull alive as long as humanly possible." If that means selling or loaning gold cheaply, so be it."

And

"Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:30

George s. Cole ( gold bear ) :

MOREGOLD: No doubt there will be many mine closings if this gold bear continues much longer. I find it hard to believe the CBs and their allies would want to push bullion down so much as to virtually guarantee a huge rebound far beyond $400 a year or two down the road. But it looks like this is their goal."

And

"Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:40

George Cole ( CB selling ) :

AURIC: Remember in a bear market all news is bad news. The Australian sale is inducing traders to wonder who will be next. Apparently some expect selling by Portugal soon to meet EMU requirements. Without strong investor demand the lethal combination of cheap CB gold loans and outright CB selling will have little trouble keeping the gold bulls on the ropes."

And

"Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:32

George Cole ( CB selling ) :

Did the Australian CB ( and other CBs as well ) sell because they think gold is going lower, or because they want to push it lower. I suspect the latter."

Once again, OLD GSC has flipped his plate. OLD GSC will boldly take one position, when proven wrong, he will deny, forget, sidestep, or obfuscate. For those that fawn over OLD GSC, let his words speak for him:

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:18

George S. Cole ( bulls and bears ) :

I still see the financial bull and gold bear changing places this summer. Only question is how high stocks go and how low gold and gold sink over the next month or two before the big reversal.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:17

George S. Cole ( Projections ) :

The market looks like it will peak earlier than my original late summer target date. The first half of July seems the best bet at this time. Gold should start doing much better about then. The current washout still has further to go though. Look for a downside breakout below $340 that may carry as low as $335, and then a big reversal up.

"Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:25

George Cole ( bottom? ) :

I expect a bottom within the next few weeks. How low we will go is, as always, quite uncertain. APH has mentioned $314 and GLENN $313; these are in line with my own thinking."

George:

I don't even post on this site any more. Your recent offer to bury the hatchet likes me not. You attack me and others, you will be shamed. If you would like to continue your snipes, I am saving the juicy stuff for later. Take your stand George, I will show how you took just the opposite stance in your past.

Your best course is to ignore this post and to continue on in much the same way, but without the attacks on myself, EB and others. When you attack, I will use your own words to defeat. And thus the battle is joined.

Give it up George. You can't win. Seems the wiser road, but I suspect you will take up foil to parry. Remember which is the pointy end, and wield it cautiously.

In finding these posts, I found many of your staggering GSC self contradictions.

I invite you to invite me to post them.

OK

PS

Just WHY did you change your handle from George S. Cole to OLD GOLD?

OH..I SEE.. ITS THE CAPITAL LETTERS!!!

All: Havn't you all wondered why gold has been so quiet lately? Perhaps it is because the CB's are still selling or loaning, as per FV's comments. If he is right about early May being the end of the gold sales, things might get fairly bullish at that time! Lets hope so! I think EB is right that gold is going down very short term, since we seem to be at the upper range of a short-term cycle. But -- I think the downtrend is short term only, as the fundamentals look strong! Only an international financial meltdown will prevent our gold rally. I agree with Oldman and OldGold ( also? ) that the strength of our fledgling gold bull will be a good indicator of the hidden turmoil in the equity markets.

My guess is the turmoil in the markets worldwide will not affect the US markets more than 5%-10% -- this time. But the bearish pressure is building up for this fall or the fall of 1999-2000. Imagine what the Koreas will be like by then -- and the Chinese devaluation? I hope the Chinese are cautious enough to devalue very slowly so as not to spook the markets.

Interesting post about major companies padding their earnings reports by including stocks options to their employees. That I think would be significant if it were a new concept. Perhaps it is not. Anyone know?

Could it perhaps be PMT time or PM time?

so sorry, your honour
humble appologies

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Asia tanking hard AGAIN
The call it the wall st blues.

HK -323
Nikkei -345

RJ: Glad you're back! Any comments about what you expect for gold over the next few months? FV is very bullish with a prediction of a 1998 return to the $370-$410 trading range of 1994-1996 ( taken from his April 21 letter to Cheryl Einhorn, Barron's Commodities Corner -- complements of IDT today at 19:32 ) .

Thanks in advance for your input!

There have been some postings in the last day or so about the Swiss Gold sales and the Bank of England not having enough Gold to cover their Gold loans. If this is so, then a big supply deficit has been added to the equation. Many posters at Kitco seem to feel we have finally entered the bull phase of the Gold market. Is this just more of the same old line we have been hearing at Kitco for the last year, or have we turned the corner? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

IMHO silver is heavy and takes up a lot of space. 70 pounds of the stuff is worth about what 20 ounces of gold is worth and takes about as much space as a gallon of milk or a loaf of bread. A plus if one needs extra ballast for their boat, or uses it up hammering bowls and casting crucifixes but a minus if they have to put it in a small sized bank drawer or flee across the Alps to escape the Nazis.

Speaking of your work how is your big project coming? I hope you'll post a pic of it. :^ )

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
April 27, 1998
00:11AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
311.80
312.30
-0.60
-0.19%
SILVER
6.24
6.29
-0.01
-0.16%
PLATINUM
411.00
413.00
+2.10
+0.51%
PALLADIUM
380.00
390.00
+4.00
+1.06%

HighRise

Not new but increased use and value of options packages
as preferred means of compensation. Rising market.

Hi RJ,

What do you think of the recent soaring of several gold stocks like DROOY? Do you think they will run higher? ( Someone on Kitco mentioned
$6.00 ) .

Also, gold seems to be going up pretty steadily. Can you comment on this? Seems you were saying it wouldn't be going up much a few weeks ago. I delayed buying, now I'm nervous, even with the drop on Friday.

Thanks for serving us with your opinions.

FYI, I am a gold bug.

2BRO2B?: Yes -- might be a real bargain to pay salary bonuses this way with stock options. Looks good to the employee -- right now anyway. With regard to the markets, it will be interesting to see if our current computer stock bull plows right through our current turmoil. I think it might.

http://www.zdnet.com/pcweek/news/0420/24eprobe.html
The attorneys general from about a dozen states are expected to file a joint action against Microsoft Corp. within the next two weeks in an attempt to block the shipment of Windows 98.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Imagine blocking Microsoft's only Y2K product from entering the market.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Avid chatter:
~~~~~~~~~
no one can really tell how far down this market corrects ( course I got me a lucky rabbits foot which twitches ) but I think this one will have alot more omph in it than most think .... funny how so many are convinced that this can't be a top and the funnier thing is no matter how fast and how much it drops they won;t be convinced that it will never ( at least for a very long long time IMO ) ever bounce right back and go higher.... manias are funny in that way ... I bet when gold hit 800 there were plenty out there who thought that the first 20% drop was "temporary" same in the nekkei bubble ....I'm jumpin the gun here but I do believe that we have reached the plateau ....guess time will tell

it's been twitching for the past month now temp .... all equity markets worldwide have risen in an ( IMO ) unsupportable manner sucking in huge amounts of capital in the process ...yet the news has been rather disappointing in the earnings arena ... I just don;t see stuff that can drive up expectations higher than they already are and I now see the potential for capital to move out of NA equity markets cause the P/E's have become ludicous

I just think there is no more "Juice left to squeeze"

... thanks for sharing that ... where does the money go ( the new money, not the stuff that goes "poof" into the black hole you envision ) ?

good question.... alot of the far eastern money is starting to return back home cause the USD is no longer precieved as safe for appreciation ..... and alot of money is flowing back into real estate where prices have been rising rather rapidly as the excesses of the mid 80's have been steadily disappearing ....

this is not exactly a ewave question.. but tell me what you think of the problems assosiated with y2k. Can the IRS computers be fixed ? can the Gov. computers be fixed??? Are the major banks in a unfixable mess?? This problem if not delt with will bring any house down. The financial house of cards that we have built could not possible survive such an ordeal. Do you have an opinion?

maybe the y2k thing is planned by the uncle sam. on jan 1 2000. USA can just say "what bonds?? Our computer says you don't have any bonds."

well, either y2k is much to do about nothing or it is the most serious financial problem we will face in our lifetime. I wish I knew the answer.

btw ... the real Y2K problem won't be from computers as much as it will be the hit the economy takes from diverting billions of dollars from capital expenditures to y2k problem fixes, imho. The losses to productivity alone could trigger a bear market in Oct 1999.

as soon as public knows that IRS has lost their files. I think that revenue collection could become a little slower to say the least.

from Cadbury:
( 1 ) In 1987 a double top was formed. Of course the S.&P. 500 formed a double top last week. .....
( 2 ) In 1987 and before other crashes interest rates had generally backed up. On Thursday, long-term Treasury yields almost reached 6% again. ......
( 3 ) In 1987 and before other crashes the stock market advanced strongly in a short period. From mid-January to mid-April, the S.&P. 500 jumped 24% intraday. .....
( 4 ) In 1987 and before other crashes, investor sentiment readings were extremely high. Last week Investor's Intelligence reported 54.6% bulls, near the 5-year high of 56.0% bulls, and 23.1% bears, almost the 5-year low of 22.6%. ......
( 5 ) In 1987 and before other crashes, the percentage of bulls had been high for many weeks. Last week the I.I bulls were above 52% for the fourth week in a row. Concern about a crash has ebbed. On April 15th, the trading halts were changed permitting a first stoppage only after the Dow has plunged 10%.

watch the S. Korean market, it is in the most danger this week. labor unrest...

For as many years as I have been watching the Japanese financial markets, I have never seen so much talking..This is very unusal. The Japanese tend just act and say nothing. a.k.a. a ninja..But lately they are making very bold comments hmm???

One of the big problems in the Japanese political world, is there isn't anyone in the wings to step up and replace Hashimoto...

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 9:32PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
This market is really sold out here, but we need some panic for a s/t bottom. Though the correction will likely last till the latter part of May, the low should come by 5/4/98, with possible stab of that low on a retest later in May. If Dow prints 8800's this week, the buy is on. The summer solstice will see the bears in the process of decimation as we roar to the autu mn high. I pre fer downside action for my trading---it dont get much easier than the last couple of days---but the easy bear money will be gone by week's end.

oleman you comments of a major downturn in the fall..What do you see coming in the fall to provoke this downturn. Are they related to the mid-term elections??

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 9:41PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
gotta get it out of the way so the market will be rising in '00 as Hillary makes her run for the actual title to go along with the power.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 9:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dow whould be strongest index from here on out. 8750-8850 should hold this correction. Many stocks--including many of the big ones--- will show inability to rally with the big indexes during the next leg up. Long side best played by buying the indexes for the last up leg. Stock picking will be hard. Even among the Dol stocks. Buy the DIA, SPY, of the futures. should be a minimum of 20% up from the May botttom to the top in the big indexes. Too late in the game to be picking stocks, IMO.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 9:53PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I'd love to see 980 soon. The easy money for me has been the down moves all during the bull market. That kind of dip with the monetary situation now extant would be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 9:55PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
If I'm right about an autumn high, rates WILL rise. Bull markets do not die till the money gets tight. It aint really that complicated.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 10:00PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Affirmative. That's why i said we need some panic. VIX and P/C, properly used are BEST measures of sentiment, and we got a ways to go there. In addition to extreme tick readings for 2 days in a row, the NA total for the 2 days was lowest 2 day total of the entire bull leg. I kept wondering Friday just what it will take to get folks to "turn loose" and SELL this thing so we can bottom. If Fri was a bottom, I'm fooled. Big time!

I quite frankly don't know for sure what's going on since nobody is telling the truth ( in the Asian press ) I've read three differnt stories on the same subject -- I don't care since I'm up to my eyeballs in silver and gold and very content to be there. :- )

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 10:09PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
She's got a firm 40% of the vote sewed up. Those will stick even if she confesses to multiple felonies. If its a 3-way race, the Klintonistas dont even have to campaign. The votes are there for a victory in a 3-way coming strictly from groups that could NEVER be alienated from the Klintonistas. If you believe the Census Bureau, they'll have enough for an outright majority in a 2-way race within a decade or so.

the rate market will have to drag mr greenspan to the post. he's too old to recover from another 1987. then too, as humble 1 said, if they are worried about stocks being hyperinflated they don't have to raise rates, they can just raise the margin %. what else is inflated?

so even if market goes south 15-20% the chance of fed easing is small, bec greensp doesn't want economic problems associated with bubble.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 10:13PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
otc: I agree. should bounce right here. If it does, well get a real swift tank later in the week.

The Fed manipulates the markets to benefit the encumbent administration. ----whether it be Billary and Hillium or any other administration. It is very easy for them to do it and we all just go oh yeah the Fed had to raise interest rates. We are told that the Fed had to flood the market with liquidity because of Asia ...now we are starting to be told that labor is tight and prices are rising and inflation is rearing its head ....and so the Fed will be totally justified in raising rates. ( This is all completely in the control of the central banks of the world ) This will scare the market and we should have at least a 25% correction. But, the truth is they do this every four years with the presidential cycle. Besides, they ( the big boys, the industry, the money-powers, etc ) have to get the public to sell their stocks periodically so they can make a lot by buying them back cheaply. The time is here. Has to be now, or very soon, to give enough time to scare the public and then build the market back up for the next election. Occassionally, the market doesn't completely cooperate....as in 1194...or of course in could get out of control and go overgoard. Meanwhile, we innocently talk about Asia and inflation and deflation.....thinking somehow these things are accidents.

oleman . . Sun, Apr 26, 10:19PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dont know. could bounce all the way to the mid 30's. All I know is I could not buy Friday's bottom. Gotta see some real panic. Fokes gotta get all putted up before the buy is on.

RJ ..
You appear to be developing an "OLD GOLD" fixation.
I suggest a couple of disprins, a cup of hot tea with
brandy, and a good night's sleep. Call ne in the morning.

I've learned that...............
... you cannot make someone love you. All you can do is be someone who can be loved. The rest is up to them.
... no matter how much I care, some people just don't care back.
... it takes years to build up trust, and only seconds to destroy it..
... it's not what you have in your life, but who you have in your life that counts.
... you can get by on charm for about 15 minutes. After that, you'd better know something.
... you shouldn't compare yourself to the best others can do, but to the best you can do.
... it's not what happens to people that's important. It's what they do about it.
... no matter how thin you slice it, there are always two sides.
... it's taking me a long time to become the person I want to be.
... it's alot easier to react than it is to think.
... you should always leave loved ones with loving words. It may be the last time you see them.
... you can keep going long after you think you can't.
... we are responsible for what we do, no matter how we feel.
... either you control your attitude or it controls you.
... regardless of how hot and steamy a relationship is at first, the passion fades and there had better be something else to take its place.
... heroes are the people who do what has to be done when it needs to be done, regardless of the consequences.
... learning to forgive takes practice.
... there are people who love you dearly, but just don't know how to show it.
... money is a lousy way of keeping score.
... my best friend and I can do anything or nothing and have the best time.
... sometimes the people you expect to kick you when you're down will be the ones to help you get back up.
... I'm getting more and more like my grandma, and I'm kinda happy about it.
... sometimes when I'm angry I have the right to be angry, but that doesn't give me the right to be cruel.
... true friendship continues to grow, even over the longest distance. Same goes for true love.
... just because someone doesn't love you the way you want them to doesn't mean they don't love you with all they have.
... maturity has more to do with what types of experiences you've had and what you've learned from them and less to do with how many birthdays you've celebrated.
... you should never tell a child her dreams are unlikely or outlandish. Few things are more humiliating, and what a tragedy it would be if she believed it.
... your family won't always be there for you. It may seem funny, but people you aren't related to can take care of you and love you and teach you to trust people again. Families aren't biological.
... no matter how good a friend someone is, they're going to hurt you every once in a while and you must forgive them for that.
... it isn't always enough to be forgiven by others. Sometimes you have to learn to forgive yourself.
... no matter how bad your heart is broken the world doesn't stop for your grief.
... our background and circumstances may have influenced who we are, but we are responsible for who we become.
... sometimes when my friends fight, I'm forced to choose sides even when I don't want to.
... just because two people argue, it doesn't mean they don't love each other. And just because they don't argue, it doesn't mean they do.
... sometimes you have to put the individual ahead of their actions.
... we don't have to change friends if we understand that friends change.
... if you don't want to forget something, stick it in your underwear drawer.
... you shouldn't be so eager to find out a secret. It could change your life forever.
... the clothes I like best are the ones with the most holes in them.
... two people can look at the exact same thing and see something totally different.
... no matter how you try to protect your children, they will eventually get hurt and you will hurt in the process.
... there are many ways of falling and staying in love.
... no matter the consequences, those who are honest with themselves, get farther in life.
... many things can be powered by the mind, the trick is self-control.
... no matter how many friends you have, if you are their pillar, you will feel lonely and lost at the times you need them most.
... your life can be changed in a matter of hours by people who don't even know you.
... even when you think you have no more to give, when a friend cries out to you, you will find the strength to help.
... writing, as well as talking, can ease emotional pains.
... the paradigm we live in is not all that is offered to us.
... credentials on the wall do not make you a decent human being.
... the people you care most about in life are taken from you to soon.
... although the word "love" can have many different meaning, it loses value when overly used.
... it's hard to determine where to draw the line between being nice and not hurting people's feelings and standing up for what you believe.

If you know any news on Consolidated African Mines, I would appreciate your posting it.

-317

Got to thinking about them "emoticons". You know, the :- ) things. Not a bad idea. Thinking I might start using them a little in my posts.

Excepts from a recent e-mail:

I recently put some of my own long term pension $ in gold and I think the bottom is in. The EMU may be short term bearish for gold though, freeing up much gold in the vaults, yes? There will be another drop in the next 30 days, if 300 holds, I'm buyin'. If 300 breaks, I fear nothing lower than 280.

Silver will drop below 6 before another run at 7.

Palladium will rise above platinum in the next couple weeks and, for the first time ever, be the most precious of the metals.

Platinum will follow palladium and spike above 500 before settling in a 450 - 600 range for the next couple years.

I am not going to be posting market opinion on Kitco for awhile, if ever. The schmoes have control of the boat, and they see neither rock nor reef. Too much work defending my stance. I just don't have the energy to continue the war. I write one thing, and then another poster rewrites it, changes the meaning 180 degrees, and then presents this as my view.

I trade millions in physical metal every month, not on paper, but the actual metal. I do this for a living, it is my job, and many of my clients read this forum. I simply cannot allow these misrepresentations to stand uncorrected. If one has only read the paraphrased post and not the original, they are left with the impression that my views are vastly different than they really are.

This is not a game. The shouters have won. This forum will be a fan club for gold and little of any import will come of it all. Like minded people in intellectual coitus with like minded people. Any other voices will be stilled by the screamers and the loss is felt by all.

Thanks again for your posts, as I have enjoyed them over the months. I still read Kitco, but I will not post market opinion for now.

OK

For Mozel
Its 7:00 am and Ive been up since 5:00. Not even
sun up outside... a few sips of coffee left... and I
just happen to have the CAM annual report on my desk.
In summary
1. I had some shares and was advised to sell them...
just why I have forgotten.
2. I did sell them and they have done nothing in
the recent runup.
3. The company is heavy with Kebbles .. also the
report says that Mzi Khumalo has joined them .. ( I
cant believe he's still there as his war with Brett
Kebble was one of the things that wrecked JCI )
4. I cannot figure out what they are up to with
the remnants of JCI.
5. The company is really a mystery to me which
becomes even less clear after reading the annual
report.
6. Rangold is a cleaner vehicle, and CAM only owns
8 % of it. In a breakup, rangold is worth twice its
price.
7. I dont like it much .. but I understand some
Yanks are buying it.

NICE Post,
Thanks

HighRise

Thanks for yoru prevous posts - you make a clear but depressing case.

If you woudl make just one more post, since you trade so much physical; do yo belive phyjsicla gold IS in short supply.

I do hope you answer, but thanks in any event. Sorry to see you "go"

Steven.....

No.

Your commentary on the differences between scientific, common law and political, feudal or civil law was, to be plainspoken, superficial.

The notion that the King would bribe a common law judge over a decision involving a dispute between two farmers over a cow or over a widow's right to live in her dead husband's house is simply preposterous. Perhaps you have confused the Judges of the King's Court with the common law judges. Trials in the King's Court, at one period known as the Star Chamber, were not according to common law at all. Nor were trials for treason at common law. The whole law of England is not English common law and every judge that sat was not a common law judge. If you have specific knowledge of the judicial corruption which you allege existed among the common law judges, put it forth.

You supported your assertion that there can be no science of law by alluding to varying decisons in American courts. Not only did different States adopt the common law differently, but each State has a different Constitution. But, further, there are varying theories of the meaning of experimental results even in the experimental fields of knowledge. Unanimity is no guarantee of science. If it were, manias would be high points in human knowledge. Knowledge evolves from reasoning on experience or experiments. In the latest forays of any field of knowledge there is never agreement. The common law was developed by a method of science, not the experimental method to be sure, but a scientific method nevertheless. Political law is not. Very little of the sum total of human knowledge is actually from the experimental method of science.

I think your post expresses what you think you know of the common law, not what you have actually gleaned from study of its history, development, maxims, and rules.

RJ-- As I understand your last post, you feel Gold has a potential, but unlikely, downside of $280. On that point, you agree with ANOTHER. And yes, I agree, Gold Bugs can be nuts.The inmates at Kitco, at times, do run the asylum. But do you also agree that there is a tremendous amount of education available at this forum for those who wish to learn?

Gold lease rates went up while I wasn't watching. No one has mentioned it. 1 Yr. Gold lease rates 3.8%.

If you DONT believe in Elliot Waves .. Then silver
looked at in $ or yen or SF is on a support line and
will move up soon.
Is Elliot right or is he wrong ??? Tune in next week

I think we inhabit the diurnal antipodes.
Many thanks, I think, for the CAM report. Roberts Stephens Fund is a buyer of it.
How did these Kebbles get everywhere ? WWhat is a Kebble anyway ?

I have enjoyed your comments, IMHO to fully understand any market and profit, the perspective of traders is vital to understanding the full picture. Hope you post later.

The Bug

Carnegie was a salesman par excellence. Stories say GOLD was his "God."
His favorite motto was "put all your eggs in one basket, AND WATCH THAT
BASKET!" were he alive today, i wonder if he would put all his eggs in
the gold basket?

.................

I think you forgot to mention that before he put ANY eggs in the basket, he would firstly borrow the eggs !!

Vronsky, take faith. Even Tarzan used to come home exhausted, flop into a chair and say : "Jane, it's a jungle out there !"

There is a card company here named Hallmark that is always on the lookout for good little snatches of sentiment. Pay well, too. Your thoughts deserve a wider audience. Noone can ever read or write too many kind things.

Not sure I got the meaning. Is Elliot wave saying Silver is going to fall? I have developed a healthy skepticism of Prechter. He was good in the '80's. Not so good in the '90's.

For suspicious..

IM Suspicious ... Where you get dat rate?? I got 2.12 on
april 24 and 3.8 FORWARD RATE... Where are you getting your
data ?? Are you confused ?? if so thats two of us ...

If RJ would relent and post, I would support a Bart rule that everybody ignore RJ's posts so his clients don't get the wrong idea.

Your backbone has been carved from a 500 year old Kauri.
And your ethics lie in it's shadow.

Straight, tall and ramrod stiff.

Kudos to the mighty Kauri.

Iraqi Shiite Leader's Murder May Trigger Crisis in the Gulf

Sheikh Morteza Ali Mohammad Ebrahim Borujerdi, Ayatollah and leader of
Shiite Muslims of Iraq, was assassinated on the evening of Thursday, April
23. Iraq is a predominantly Sunni country. The Shiite community is
concentrated in southeastern Iraq, in the strategic marshes of the Shatt
al-Arab and in the city of Basra. This region has been fought over by Iran
and Iraq for years and was ceded to Iraq following the Iran-Iraq war. The
Baghdad government has been deeply suspicious of the loyalty of this
minority and has been particularly vigorous in imposing security on the
region. The treatment of the Iraqi Shiite community has been of great
interest to the predominantly Shiite regime in Tehran. Thus, the death of
the Ayatollah has potentially significant strategic implications.

According to Tehran, the assassination took place in the southern city of
Najaf, while Borujerdi and two companions were returning home after prayers
at the shrine of Imam Ali. The assassins were able to escape. The
Iranians immediately protested to the Iraqis, who replied that "the
intelligence service of a foreign country was behind this attack because of
Sheikh Morteza Ali Mohammad's well know religious ideas and proper
conduct." The statement also said that security forces were searching for
those who perpetrated the "regrettable" attack.

On Friday, following no further action from Baghdad, the English language
daily "Iran News" and the Iranian news agency IRNA both started charging
that the assassination was the result of actions by the ruling Iraqi
regime. Both reported that the killing "once again reveals the true nature
of Saddam Hussein to the world public." The reports also dismissed Iraqi
claims that "foreign hands" were involved as an attempt to "safeguard
itself against the consequent crisis of the killing." Reports also stated
that: "Sooner or later the sinful hands of the Iraqi government's agents
involved in the assassination would be revealed." The report concluded by
saying, "The Iraqi president should know that the actions which he
initiated years ago have been driving the Iraqis to their death beds and
unfortunately, whenever there is a move to save Iraqis from their miseries,
an assassination or a similar action by the ruling Iraqi regime brings the
situation back to zero."

Thus far, the extreme responses to the killings have come from the press,
and no major leader has yet stated publicly that a crisis now exists
between Iran and Iraq over the killings. But the Iranian press does not
stray far from official views in matters of foreign affairs, and it is
clear to us that the press is now floating the idea that Iran holds Iraq
responsible for the killing, and that the situation between Iran and Iraq
has been returned to the status quo ante--intense hostility bordering on
violence.

We have argued for several months now that the core issue in the Persian
Gulf has been Iran's emergence from isolation. This has now clearly taken
place. We have also argued that one of the driving considerations for Iran
has been to reverse the outcome of the Iran-Iraq War, a war that continues
to be a burning symbol of humiliation in Iran. Moreover, recovery of the
Shatt al-Arab waterway and the marshes from Basra southward would represent
a matter of substantial strategic importance to Iran, as it would
dramatically increase Iran's ability to project power along the western
littoral of the Persian Gulf. It would also severely diminish Iraq's
power. Therefore, while the United States is wary of dismantling Iraq,
Iran is drawn to the idea by history and geopolitics.

The Iranians have been laying the legal and moral basis of action against
Iraq for several months. For example, a few weeks ago, Iran charged that
Iraq had kidnapped a group of Iranian fisherman who had been shipwrecked
along the Iraqi coast. Iran has carefully noted intensifying Iraqi
security operations among the Shiites in the south. With the most recent
killing, Iran has clearly set the stage for a legitimate, defensible
crisis, without yet stepping over the line.

A subtext of this has been the crisis caused by collapsing oil prices. The
recent agreement in Riyadh and Vienna have clearly failed to raise oil
prices. At most, they have stabilized them at a level unacceptable to
Saudi Arabia, the key player, and one whose economy cannot endure such low
prices. While there is intensive discussion going on as to how to raise
oil prices, the one sure way is to knock Iraq off the market through
military action. Iraq has recently been releasing reports through the U.N.
indicating that their production is much lower than expected, thereby
trying to deflect interest in eliminating that production altogether.
Nevertheless, with oil prices falling below acceptable levels, and Saudi
finances weakening, an Iranian operation against Iraq, while posing severe
long-term dangers to Saudi security, has its short-term charms. Thus, Iran
might be able to recruit badly needed allies for an Iraqi adventure, if it
wants them.

The Iraqis are protesting that they were not behind the killing but that
some foreign force was involved. The Iraqis seem to be saying that the
Iranians themselves may have acted in order to create a provocation that
justified action. It is unlikely that any other foreign force, including
the United States and Israel, would have cared. While it would seem odd
for Iraq to want to precipitate a crisis with Iran, if Iraq has already
concluded that the crisis is inevitable, then killing Borujerdi made sense,
as it increased internal security in the strategic southern region by
denying the Shiites a key leader. Thus it seems to us that the Iraqis have
already decided that a crisis is coming and acted in anticipation. Indeed,
political maneuvers in the north among the Kurds and deployments of Iraqi
forces all seem to indicate the potential of conflict in the South.

Iran now has in its hands all the excuse it needs to justify a
confrontation with Iraq. Iran has stated that a crisis must follow this
killing and that its relations with Iraq have returned to zero. They have
lost the element of surprise, as well as the cooperation of the Americans,
at least for the time being, but they have the superior force on the
ground. Moreover, they have the ability to use the crisis to create their
dreamed of security framework in the region. Finally, a confrontation
would force a suspension of the political infighting in Iran between
Khatami and Khamenei's supporters.

Borujerdi's murder has laid the foundation for action against Iraq, should
Iran want it. Iraq could arrest the killers and end the crisis. Or they
might let it play out to wherever Iran wants to go. Iraq is feeling cocky
these days. Iran sees a window of opportunity. The ingredients for
conflict are all here.

I am interested finding a trader.

Could you please send me information on how to contact you.

My email is eck333@yahoo.com

25/04/98 or RJ 26/04/98

For Auric ..
I was assuming ( perhaps wrongly ) that recent forecasts of silver
to $5.5 must be based EW considerations ... but maybe on downward
resolution of triangle formation ... sorry to confuse .. I think
we near support at about 6.15 .. wouldnt like that to break.
For Mozel ..
Kebbles own lots of stock .. attend lots of board meetings..
scare hell out of shareholders .. wear glasses .. that's all
I know.

To all
I have no clients .. it gives me a lot of personal freedom..
but then I dont make any money .

come va,cioccio

Gold will hit four digit values within 18 months. As of this writing not one major money center bank in the world is close to y2k compliance. Euro aside, Y2K will be EPIC. Ed Yardeni, from Deutche Morgen Grenfell, www.yardeni.com, believes this will likely result in a deflationary recession. He's being too optimistic. But for you skeptics start with his netbook and go from there. Do I need to remind anyone that "past performance is no indicator of future results." This gold market will not be like any other; as y2k is an event unlike any other. As another has told me: "we will watch this new gold market together yes?" Hold your gold close. Speculators will be crushed when this house of cards begins to fall.

Let there be light

They were standing on the deck of their treehome & everywhere they looked
there were animals fornicating. Pygmy monkeys & elephants & almost every other species in between. Tarzan turned to Jane & said "you know Jane, it's a fuking jungle out there".

I know RANGY owns some DROOY stock but do you know if Kebbles owns how much if any Rangy stock? On a non gold note, do you know the non-immigrant visa requirements for USC's traveling to SA?

Thanks for clarification. I've always been one to play the long term. You know, to buy Gold at $315 with even more gusto than when it was at $400. Heh heh, it was easier to buy Gold at $400 18 months ago than it is now at 315!

me aint been reedin my things b4 i bin sendin um. sorry.

Mozel-- far too kind.

If the Kebbles' glasses are dark, they could be Rothschilds in disguise. ( I wanted to post that before Haggis made the connection. )

If there were any justice in this world, Willam Randoph Hearst would have lived to make another media fortune off of Iran and Iraq in Crisis. There's a rumor the US is going to rehabilitate Saddam. I think it's true.

ANOTHER's opinion on the current price of oil is unique among commenatators. When the elephants are walking, it's hard to know why. Many a GB was squashed by the CB plan for gold.

Thanks for clarification. I've always been one to play the long term. You know, to buy Gold at $315 with even more gusto than when it was at $400. Heh heh, it was easier to buy Gold at $400 18 months ago than it is now at 315!

RJ

Amigo. I regret my "indelicate" words that take the p!ss, if they have caused this change of heart in you. I can't help taking the p!ss, but I mean no disrespect. If you could hear my voice and see my mischievous glint of eye, you'd know I only bother to play with those I respect.

I am reminded of Jimi Hendrix "There are many here among us, who feel that life is but a joke." However, I acknowledge that metal trading is your business, and my "pet-name" for you may not be appropriate now. I shall always think of you as f-p, but shall await the muses to tell me your new handle.

In the meantime, I echo sharefin's sentiment of the mighty kauri tree. Tall, upright, strong. Perhaps the kauri is your totem. My new house is made of kauri and rimu.

I hope Pa sharefin has a poem for us alluding to the kauri.

For Aztec ..
By "non-immigrant" visa I assume you mean
tourist visa ? If assumption correct it is
easy as pie .. contact your friendly travel
agent for details.

I danced this night with Fairy Queen
And drank with leprechaun
And supped with Elven earls and King
And fairy folk of wondrous kind
Here on my own green lawn

All beautiful but unsubstantial
But good folk all -- and Fairy Queen
The deep loved woman of my life
A lovely shade -- ephemeral
Dear God, an image and a dream

Silver and strange and quiet the night
And with the rose and gold of dawn
All fled in streams of golden light
And I left desolate alone
Cold on my own green lawn


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How strange
Our journey to the East
Should face a westering sun

The fires of youth burn out
The hot and the passionate years
Resolve to memory
Glowing embers
Flare briefly
At a loved remembered smile
But the light they kindle
Reveals a lonely road

But, faraway, glow briefly
Rose amber and gold
( How she loved such colours )
The spires, the domes, the minarets
Long sought, often dreamed
And sometimes brightly visioned
The tenements of the celestial city
The warmth of her spirit again

Heaven
Loves nest
Hunters home
Palaces of dreams
Vision of Peace
The ineffable light
And journeys end

Nope it was me confused, 3.8 was forward rate.

Donald and others concerned about privacy. If you really want to, you can open a bank account without a number. Not easy, but has been done by a compatriot of mine within the last week.

I say either we get Y2K Apocalypse or One World Government Apocalypse, but not both. I lean to Y2K.

Somebody quoted a broadcast prophet earlier today sans gospel. I confide ( without any desire to offend or otherwise generate controversy ) a lack of confidence in these revelations and the theology behind them.

For Aztec..
Polarbear has more current info on
Rangold than I. However, I think you
can assume that between father and
son, the Kebbles control Rangold.
It is a holding company and it is
selling at a fierce discount to its
NAV. If its broken up .. its worth
twice its market price. Its a cheap
way to buy Harmony Deeps and options
thereon .. you also get Crown..
and a whole lot of Rangold resources
which represents a big operating mine
in Mali .. some other projects in progress
and mining rights allover Africa.
You also get a bunch of unlisted
assets.
golden eagle has info on this.

I find it rather strange that this "trader" keeps announcing his persistent condescension regarding posters on this forum...keeps announcing he will never post again on this forum...and yet he just keeps coming back and coming back and coming back. He is like Jason in Friday the 13th...he will not go away.

Yet, he returns to announce that he is in fact a goldbug because, after all, he put his LONG TERM pension money in gold. So, we are comforted in knowing that by the time Mr. RJ retires ( in several more decades ) , at that point we might expect some upside in gold.

But, lest you become too giddy in the knowledge that RJ is allotting some retirement monies to gold investment, he is back to apprise us that "there will be another drop in the next 30 days." And furthermore, he hopes we will take encouragement in the knowledge that if 300 holds, he is buying and if 300 breaks, he fears nothing lower than 280.

Hmmmm?

Let me repeat this statement as it reveals subconscious intention: "if 300 breaks, he fears nothing lower than 280." Ok, well, I suppose if I were on the short side of gold, I would fear nothing lower than 280...in fact, I would fear nothing lower than 200 or 100 or 50 for that matter. I would, in fact, be quite fearless.

Gentlemen, the reality is this: whether or not we are in a gold bull will be determined completely by the events of the next 30 days...if people like RJ can persuade you that gold dropping significantly over the next 30 days is no big deal, then I would suggest that he is persuading you to accept the resumption of a gold bear.

The foundation of a gold bull is a very tenuous matter. It is imperative that this foundation be firmly established over the next month. If the foundation should crumble at this particular time ( especially during a month when some fairly compelling market analysts are expecting a major general equities debacle ) , then I would expect that the gold bull is nonexistent...not now but forever.

This May is a critical month. I have posted previously about the imperative of gold and gold stocks re-establishing their negative betas ( contrarian movements ) at this particular time. I have warned you that Wall Street does not wish this phenomenon to manifest itself as it undermines the value of bonds as a safe haven in economic tumult. The month of May might turn out to be a major disaster for general equities. Thus, gold and gold stocks must stay even or strengthen against equities...and they must stay even or strengthen against bonds; otherwise, the fledgling gold bull will probably never resurface again this year...maybe never again..

This man ( RJ ) strikes me as the most insecure poster I have read on this forum. Over and over again, he affirms that "he trades millions in physical every month...the actual metal." "He does it for a living...it is his job." By extrapolation, those gentlemen on this forum who are in the jewellery business, numismatics, scrap metals, historians, economics students, builders, fathers, engineers, etc...in other words, the people who actually invest their monies in precious metals...all their opinions about the value of precious metals are irrelevant. Only the traders matter?? Have you ever heard such condescending nonsense?

He further informs us that his clients read this forum so he must correct any of the misrepresentations that appear here pertaining to statements he has made. Yet, he informs us that "the schmoes have control of the ( Kitco ) boat" ( so by extrapolation if his clients still are reading or posting on this forum, they must also be schmoes too, I guess ) .

Finally, he announces "he does not have the energy to continue the war...the shouters have won. This forum will be a fan club for gold. Any other voices will be stilled by the screamers." Yet, I ask you, is anybody physically preventing this man from posting? Has Bart Kitner seized his modem or banished his password?

As I said in an earlier post, RJ is capitulating to the compelling arguments slowly forming the majority of posts on this forum. He is at a loss for his own compelling, original arguments to support his prediction of gold's downward movement over the next 30 days -- instead he resorts to "the same old, same old," in alluding to further CB sales of gold. Yaaawwwwn!!!

That is why he lacks energy...and that is why "the shouters have won."

Again, he finds it so horrendous that this forum might transmogrify into a fan club for gold. Once again, I say, "So what! God knows there are no dearth of fan clubs for gold antagonists on Wall Street right now! It's about time there were some equivalent forums to broadcast the pro-gold voice."

Anyway, once again, RJ reappears to provoke "short term" nerves and anxieties in goldbugs, only to disappear heroically into the night. The main question is: will he finally leave us alone...all us poor schmoes...leave us to wither and die in our foul soup of misguided goldbugism????

Oh, God, I sure hope so!

Thanks.

F*

RJ
Have appreciated the posts I have read since last year. It has been very helpful having your feedback on what you have seen happening in the physical markets. THANKS from downunder.
ASX Gold index did a backflip/retracement today.
Gold Index -48.8 to 1373.6 ( -3.4% )
Lihir -10 to $2.55
Newcrest -11 to $2.69
Normandy -10 to $1.70

Spot Gold down a little around $312 at the moment.
$A Gold actually up as lawyers argue who should drive our docks
into bankruptcy. Result Aussie dollar off . Gold at A$482 and
trending see: http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html

Happy trading this week.

It was easier to buy Gold when it was over $400 a year or so ago. Now, at $315/oz, people think you are foolish to buy it.

There are very active participants here and how many lurkers?
RJ: your posts are as relevant as anyone's maybe moreso. You
have definite opinions and I for one would like to see you
continue, not because I think you are right all the time, but
you do offer food for thought which is what this is all about.
You used to obviously enjoy posting, get a thicker skin or
simply disregard the comments by some. I for one don't just
want GB's on the same track. The exploration of another's ideas
and input is how we come to our own individual conclusions.
Hang in there, us lurkers need you.

Hey, wait a minute, F*, you said "This man ( RJ ) strikes me as the most insecure poster I have read on this forum."

That is just not true. I claim that prize. Well, if y'all let me. If noone minds.
Have you already forgotten "my little zuccini" post? Well that's OK. Really, that's OK. Hey, F*, don't F*Koff like what RJ just done OK? Really, don't.

Really, rarely, ralley, rawley, riley, wry lear.

In these parts, every spring the lake turns over in one night, bottom for top. This isn't a gold calf market or a gold bull market. This is the Great Gold Turning. The die is cast. Paper has failed again.

...and I'll never leave you.

Thanks.

F*

Farfel fellow, I said I would post no market opinion.

You however, will hear from me.

Your facts are bereft.

Your recent post about Russian shipments proves you know nothing of these markets. I would be happy to repost. We may then dissect, yes?

I have no muzzle I.

OK

...this surely is a Great Gold Turning.

Thanks.

F*

This mushy reconcilliation between F* and RJ has caused me to have insomnia. Therefore, I am forced to sue all of you.

...into a fit of hysterical laughter. LOL

Thanks.

F*

Have I now got a dog with a full-belly humping my leg? Gettin behind ya mongrel.

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
April 27, 1998
02:52AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
311.30
311.70
-1.10
-0.35%
SILVER
6.23
6.26
-0.02
-0.32%
PLATINUM
410.00
412.00
+1.10
+0.27%
PALLADIUM
380.00
390.00
+4.00
+1.06%

HighRise

Doing my duty for Gold and Kitco.

( Howdie ) Doodie, obloquoy, on'r.

Sakakibara said: ``As long as stability for the financial market is secured the closure of the banks, and bankruptcy of the banks are probably unavoidable, and we would probably not take any measures to avoid such circumstances.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/nikkei_dow_1.html

TOKYO, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Japan's seven largest life insurers have suffered the first year-on-year fall in the value of their outstanding personal policy and pension contracts since the end of World War Two, a leading Japanese business daily said on Monday.

Japan's life insurers are among the world's largest institutional investors. The eight largest companies had a combined 148.4 trillion in total assets at the end of the first half of fiscal 1997/98.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/japan_top__1.html

American International Group will come to the rescue - 18 Billion IMF funding will help.

Good Night All, you too RJ.

HighRise

A follow up. Nick @ C is my mentor. He conferred upon me an honorary ThD, Doctor of Thinkology.

I still do. Do you?

forgot to include, request replies to:

ph@prodigitalrecords.com

or:

Violaman@WGN.net

for obvious reasons.

Regarding your humble prostration and woes of offense.

For I, no umbrage today, or ever taken

As I know none was ever sent my way

From when first I arrived

With silky golden shorts

'Neath hiked skirts on view

For none but the privileged few

In this microland inside this box

( and would you eat them with a fox? )

I can count the heroes hereabouts

With one hand ( all digits intact and remain )

You occupy greater than the pinkie

But lesser than the thumb

Your words mate, were well received

Your kind gripes well aimed and true

Usually finding me uncontrolled

By giggles and guffaws

Even to this day and beyond

I plan to read 'em all

Still and all, at the table of five

( 'member the thumb pinkie hand thingie? )

We will raise our steins of cheer

And smash them to pieces in a toast

Bits of crockery and splattered foam

Sends us drinking from the bottle

Throughout remaining night

Sleep well in Kitco world tonight

For those that are wise to old sailor ways

I can only offer this warning

No red sky tonight

Until red sky at morning

OK

The big holders of U.S. Dollars are throwing a hissy fit over this Gold-backed EMU thingy. Heh heh, Buy Gold!

You're asleep, but others worry that you're dead.
Your back goes out more than you do.
You quit trying to hold your stomach in, no matter who walks into the room.
You buy a compass for the dash of your car.
You are proud of your lawn mower.
Your best friend is dating someone half their age ... and isn't breaking any laws.
Your arms are almost too short to read the newspaper.
You sing along with the elevator music.
You would rather go to work than stay home sick.
You constantly talk about the price of gasoline.
You enjoy hearing about other people's operations.
You consider coffee one of the most important things in life.
You make an appointment to see the dentist.
You no longer think of speed limits as a challenge.
Neighbors borrow *your* tools.
People call at 9 p.m. and ask, "Did I wake you ?"
You have a dream about prunes.
You answer a question with, "because I said so!"
You send money to PBS.
The end of your tie doesn't come anywhere near the top of your pants.
You take a metal detector to the beach.
You wear black socks with sandals.
You know what the word "equity" means.
You can't remember the last time you laid on the floor to watch television.
Your ears are hairier than your head.
You get into a heated argument about pension plans.
You got cable for the weather channel.
You can go bowling without drinking.
You have a party and the neighbors don't even realize it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Everyone must reply to this questionaire within the next 24 hours.

The results will then be totalled up and divided by the 'GOLDen mean'.

After which the answer shall be multiplied be the square root of Old
Gold's profits over the last 4 months then subtracted from the length of
the height that RJ hikes his skirt ( mean average only ) when he's feelin ornery.

Once we have established this cosmological numeruno it will be passed
on to Aurator, who with his ornithilogical yardstick will be able to
quantisize the end result.

The end result of all this postulating will bring all Kitcoites one step closer
to the ultimate PRICE OF GOLD 33 days from now.

Once established, the formulae will be transformed into a kinetic kitco
IDCIBM oscillator which will be used on a daily basis to ascertain the
direction of GOLD.

14/29

We gold fans with our fan club need a little rattling from time to time. We are used to be condescended upon by great powers/ traders whose wisdom we must repect and admire. But you like the Elliot wave theorists are talking out of both sides of your mouth. Yes, your're long but you think the market will fall to a point where you can take better advantage - yeh me too.

I for one like the flow of various opinions and am rather amused by the seriousness with which some are offended when others disagree with their posts. I notice the bitterness of the response seems porportionate to the arrogance of the opinion.

If any of us were so damn smart we wouldn't be on this board. The nature of markets is to prove all the wise men wrong, particularly those that perdict with greatest confidence.

I know i'll be wrong - I just wish for the confiction to stay with my opinions which have been wrong less often than my actions in the market. Maybe you and Farfel have some perspective on that matter you'd share.

jims
well spoke.

Magnificient !! Auric hit the nail correctly .I stirred up some of my crowd when I explained how their buckskins would be WORTHLESS not worth less. Some of the yuppies are actually starting to THINK about gold.Would you believe one of the people own 21 yes twenty one mutual funds? Now that's diversification!!

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 02:39
mozel ( @F* ) ID#153102:

Paper has failed again.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Like he said.

European sock-markets following em asians way down south. Real time watch at http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets?u

Boy check out Yahoo's International stock score boards.
In Asia every market was down with the exception of India.
In Europe every market is down ( 1% is common ) except Russia.

Wish I had bought those Russian Roubles Derivatives???!!!

Yet the S&P on Globex has come back and is trading about unchanged. Dollar strong. Flight to quality. Gotta own those big cap American stocks with 30+ PEs.

Anybody hear any news about the April Comex gold deliveries.??? If more than half of those stating a delivery intention ponied up the dough Comex has problems and we gold bugs can have another fun fan club meeting.

Oh sorry , fan clubs not allowed by gold bugs - we have to be depressed. light our metal though not for long - how's that for a perdiction.

Fred
Good morning, antipodean!
I know you'll share my laughter===

"the European sock market"

may just be *the* most accurate description. oh yes.

The sock market smells a little, is easily worn out, and is easily lost.


donja love dis place? watch precious for me today, while I have a wee kip. My JM friends are holding some goodies for me, oh, m! In the morning I load up just a little.


SURVEY+++++++

All Europeans: Quick "ATTITUDE" Kwiz.

On a scale 0 to 5.
0 = No way
5 = Certainly



a ) Will the ECU go ahead as planned?


b ) What will be Gold backing as at 1 May 1998?

LOL guy !!! good day from the chilly Midwest...

Pretty mushy around here tonight. Is this the post gold-gone-up-and-now-goin-down blues?? Hey--my shares went down more than 3 big ones today and I'm still smiling. I've been waiting to buy on the dips. Picked up some bargain silver ten-baggers-to-be after selling them a week ago--missed 'em like hell. Problem with selling things when they go up so you can buy back on the correction is--sometimes they DON'T correct!!! Well, now we are getting another chance to buy at prices that will seem ridiculously low a year from now. I am absolutely up to my ears in silver shares right now, not to mention gold and copper with a bit of nickel thrown in to spice it up. These corrections are painful, but hey--they are necessary. Things don't go up in straight lines. Made so much last week that I need a slap in the face to get back to the real world anyway!!

I have been visiting the hard world of gold mining, and am still amazed at the Herculean effort required to actually get an ounce of gold out of the ground. I am mystified as to why the price does not reflect this extreme hardship--but I have faith that it soon shall. Artificial restraints are effective for only so long and then--BOOM!!! Every now and then I get out a five ounce bar. I hold it gently and caress it. I think of where it has been, who may have previously owned it, the hardships required to find,mine,& refine it--the fact that if I were a Vietnamese boatperson on the way to Oz, or a Jew fleeing Nazi persecution, or one of countless persons in trouble who needed real value in a small, beautiful, portable package...I think of what it may some day be worth in real goods and services when paper ( and Aussie plastic ) have imploded-- I think of Tutankhamen c.1355 B.C. and his 18th dynasty tomb with the most beautiful physical object in the world--his death mask...I think of my loved ones, and the fact that I am prepared for the turmoil to come...the weight ( mass ) of this bar is comforting...it is beautiful beyond comprehension for one initiated into true value...{:-- ) )

I'll have ten pairs, please.

Hello!

I usually come here at times when I make major trading moves ( at least in my mind ) The last time I was here I bought RYO at 5/8 - I have a FEELING that with the stochastics and bolinger bands indicators on XAU/GOLD/RYO/RANGY/DROOY/HGMCY that this move up might be over
any Technical chartists agree?? With RANGY not making a move like DROOY or HGMCY - I want to sell RYO and buy RANGY but its TA are topping too - with all that RANGY has going for it ( ownership of shares of DROOY and HGMCY and failure to move this time ) I am confused!!

Did you ever live in Toronto with a brother named Russell --- by chance?

Nick - the way you feel about your gold bars is the way I feel about my girlfriend!! - you sounded orgasmic there!!

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

below one % and silver is of 1/2 %. This either implies that there is
a lack of demand for leased pms ( bullish interpretation ) or the powers that be are trying to give pms away in order to manipulate the spot price
down ( short-term bearish interpretation ) . Which interpretation is most
likely, and given that the Central Bank of GT Brittain is concerned about
the loss of already leased bullion to speculators, why would anyone lease
even more at even cheaper rates? I'm confused!

To Eurator, the accumulator of No-AC/DC-land.
Just great!

The EURO is fact, so my choice re question 1 is a clean 5".
Some arguments:
1. Euro-CBs changed their holdings in european currencies big scale to USD-backing. This is somewhat irreversible if you only imagine the effect of them all in a Deutschmark-buying-frenzie.
2. Last week both, `em Germans and `em French voted in parliament pro-Euro. Any delay - for instance because of the Duisenberg/Trichet-thing - can be seen as nothing more than a tactical manoeuvre. - If something like that happens at all. In fact, Europe has yelled Geronimo" and jumped out of the plane a long time ago.

Question 2:
My guess is: About three quarters of all holdings for the ECB, one quarter remains in the members vaults for domestic purposes". Plus a binding directive re. The handling of sales of larger amounts.
But Im really curious about the valuation of AU in the books of the ECB - as I think we could take this as a bottom line for the POG.

To Nick C:
My advice for Spring/Summer 98: Short them!

Don't know where you are, mate, but it is 3-beer pm down here ( 8 pm in the real world ) . Look back over the last few hours of posts. Cat fights and mush!! Waxing lyrical etc. -- Sharefin's questionnaire takes a lot of beating--good thing about being Antipodean is that while youse guys are on your first cup of coffee, we are on our 3rd ( or multiple ) beer/wine/substance of preference!! Imagine what we put up with at 10 pm your time when you are in no pain and we haven't begun!!

Now--as to your girl friend--bet she can't kiss as well as my gold bars!!

Gday Nick - thanks for the idea - My girlfriends going to get a small present from me today - some gold colored lipstick - by the way since you are so far ahead of me in time ( I'm in UTah USA ) 4:32AM - how did gold do today? lol

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/markets_eu_1.html

A# 1--ECB has already decided percentage of EURO gold holding.

A# 2--Decision makers sworn to secrecy.

A# 3--ECB's 'in-the-know' want to make a buck on the side.

A# 4--If percentage is high, they have already bought. If percentage is low, then they have already sold.

A# 5--Gold price is up sharply the last few weeks, therefore the percentage will be high.

A# 6--Lots of negative propaganda, eg Swiss gold sales, to force out weak hands and help out with last-minute purchases before the big rise ( A deal has already been made with the Swiss ) .


Insiders will make a killing and littlies will get burned. So what else is new??

including June Gold ( down 1.20 @ 3-1-3 ) ...G'Day Nick----sip...sip ( coffee-mate )

PREDICTIONS THAT THAILAND'S REAL
ESTATE MARKET IS ALMOST EXTINCT.
Monday 27 April, 1998 ( 6:34pm AEST )





The only Thai-owned company which analyzes real estate
says the country's property market is on the verge of
extinction.

The Agency for Real Estate Affairs says most developers
are facing bankruptcy and the market size has become
smaller and smaller until it is almost non-existent.

Massive overbuilding by Thai developers helped set off
Thailand's economic crisis, which in turn sparked financial
difficulties across Asia.

With supply outstripping demand, developers couldn't sell
projects and began defaulting on loans from finance
companies causing them to collapse.

The Managing-director of the Agency for Real Estate
Affairs says a recovery isn't likely until 2001.

Utah?? Nice place. Have driven around your lovely state--St. George, Hurricane, Provo ( my brother lives there ) and SLC. Had a little trouble getting a beer in the local cafe--danged Mormons--no coffee and drink ten cokes a day!! Buy your girl a gold coin and you won't have to worry about the lipstick, mate. All your dreams will come true!!

Nick @C
I think thats it! - At least thats what I think is the most likely scenario - and I am always right, sometimes.

Germans have to bring in the lion-share of the EURO-backing. The only weak thing they enjoy is their awful beer. To summarize: It all smells to me like BIS!

down 6.10

Nick - next time you are in SLC - I'll have some beer for you ( FOSTERS!! ) - My girlfriend has already gotten me to think of gold coins but for a different reason - she says that I better have some if I want her to stick with me until old age so that I can buy the viagra pill - she figures it will be worth an ounce gold coin by the time all the US baby boomers buy up all the supply ( is the baby boomers second chance at the sexual revolution )

...miss yer, mate!! When is D-day?? You know--one of them internet tv thingies in the basement, mate. You could watch the Bulls win and give us progress reports on the mansion at the same time. Think about it!!

Fred@Vienna-- I'm going to buy ten contracts of June socks tomorrow. Thanks for the tip. You are right about BIS involvement. One letter too many though!!

sharefin: dreams for early morning - what pangs they bring to my heart. Greetings from the Spring Haiku Festival!

those worrying inordinately about gold retreating: Orthodox Goldbugs, ready to banish their children from their wills because they buy Bank Stocks, are fretting about the very thought that gold may retreat from these levels. Talk of a return to 280 is seen as the most vile and scurrilous sacrilege. Well, I must confess, long as I am, my heart would not be gladdened, but it might help to keep things in perspective. For those expecting that $400 gold will bring dreams come true, perhaps the impatience and nervousness can be understood. For those looking for the foothills of a rip roaring, down the road monster bull, patience is standard equipment. The kind of gold bull that would justify the heat and light generated at kitco over the past year must certainly be a long term, multi-year affair that would not peter out at a mere 400 or 500 per ounce. At least I'm not expecting that. So a base to support a "new era" in gold down the road may take more than just the "critical month of May" to get laid ( you'll pardon the expression ) . Even a return to 280 would be a test of the lows not out of the ordinary after so steep a recent decline, though these price patterns usually find the secondary bottom higher than the first. A close much below 306 here would probably bring us to 296 or so. We would still be at rising channel support. I notice there is a lot of worrying about swings of just a few dollars. Hey, let's bet big here! This is Kitco!
We know we're going to Heaven 'cause we spent our time in Hell! As for the remark made the other day by one of our staunchest eternal gold bulls that confidence in my own opinion ( bullish ) might have been shaken by the negative assessment for gold by a commentator and investor who I was defending, who shall be hereafter nameless ( bearish ) , I can only reply that you're talking to a guy ( me ) who buys stocks based on planetary aspects in their horoscopes. They just don't come any more confident in their OWN opinion than me.
Finally, it disappoints me just a tad that there is so much suspicion and upset about negative opinion on gold every so often. Gold DOES go up and down. This IS a gold forum. We must face facts. Those who take the bear side are not the cause of the gold declines, they are reflections of it, and may be telling us things we should hear. Market conditions are what affect the prices of things, and this is bigger than just a handful of bears in a generally bullish forum. Opposing viewpoints of market direction bring far too violent and personal a response, too much of the time. Given the sterling minds and generally upright souls at this forum, perhaps we should all be just a bit more philosophical with each other and take posts for what they're worth without taking them so personally. It is always a shame to lose good people, and I myself feel that the current kitco gang is second to none ( team pictures will be taken in June ) . On the other hand, human nature being what it is, I suppose a little irritation and food fighting now and then adds spice to things. Let's just do it for the right reasons. MY reasons. Have a great day all.

Analyst Expects Big Pullback In European Stock Markets

By MICHAEL R. SESIT and SARA WEBB
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

For an alternative view of Europe's highflying stock markets, try Michael Belkin.

The 44-year-old former proprietary trader for Salomon Brothers Inc., who now has his own financial-market forecasting firm, is predicting a pullback that could wipe between 40% and 50% off the major continental European stock markets, and some 30% off London before the region's markets find support.

That's not the conventional view. While many fund managers and analysts acknowledge that European markets may have climbed too far, too fast, and are due for a correction, they expect declines of closer to 10% from current levels.

After soaring in the first quarter, European stock markets have fallen back from their early April peaks,losing between 4% and 11%. The Dow Jones Stoxx index, which tracks 665 European companies, dropped 2.4% last week, with some individual markets seeing much steeper declines. Italy, for example, dropped nearly 8%, including a 3.8% plunge on Friday.

Even so, Europe is still holding onto some hefty gains. Among the star performers, Portugal is up 57% for the year-to-date, Finland is up 47%, Italy is up 39%, and Spain is up 36%. Even Europe's relative laggards, Britain and Switzerland, have gained 14% and 15%, respectively.

Most investors remain firm believers in the forces that have awakened Europe's stock markets from years of lethargy: lower interest rates, corporate restructuring, renewed economic growth, the birth of an "equity culture" on the Continent, and the forthcoming European economic and monetary union, or EMU.

But Mr. Belkin, president of Belkin Ltd. in New York, isn't buying it. "Portfolio managers should now quickly sell European equities and sidestep the carnage to come," he advised clients in an April 19 report. And after the declines in Europe late last week, he said he was "even more certain" of such a collapse. Mr. Belkin believes U.S. stocks are also heading for a fall, but he adds that America's budget surplus will
turn out to be larger than expected, providing a liquidity boost that could keep the rally going a little longer.

As for Europe, Mr. Belkin's case rests on twin pillars. First, he expects an aggressive jump in European interest rates, which will reverse the easy monetary policies pursued by European central banks in the run-up to EMU. Secondly, he believes European stocks have reached unsustainable peaks, when viewed in a historical context.

Using a forecasting model he designed that applies statistical probability to movements in global stock, bond, currency and commodity markets, Mr. Belkin argues that German interest rates are much too low for an economy that is beginning to pick up steam and which could grow by 3% this year -- up from an estimated 2.3% in 1997 -- and even more in 1999.

Once short-term German interest rates are pushed higher -- to an eventual range of 4.5% to 5.5% from roughly 3.6% today -- he warns that central banks in Germany, France, Switzerland and other Continental countries will be forced to raise their official discount and money-market rates. "The rise in official rates in turn will shut off the liquidity pump that has propelled Europe's financial markets to such speculative levels," he says.

Already European markets have had a taste of the interest-rate jitters. Last week, the Bundesbank announced a bigger-than-expected expansion in its broad money supply for March. That rattled German and some other European stock markets, as many economists and investors in Europe keep a watch on the German money supply figures because of their close correlation with inflation.

"All European markets are leveraged off artificially low German interest rates," says Mr. Belkin, who likens the current situation to early 1994, when global stock and bond markets tanked after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in February of that year. Like then, "hedge funds and others are now highly leveraged and maintaining huge positions in
European bonds financed with borrowed capital," he says.

What's more, Mr. Belkin contends that European stock markets are sailing along at inflated levels and are ripe for a tumble. Using technical analysis, which utilizes mathematical models and statistical trends, while filtering out the background "noise" of short-term fluctuations, he notes that Spain's IBEX benchmark index stands 108% above its 200-week moving average, while the Swiss SMI index and Italy's Mibtel 30 index are, respectively, 82% and 91% above theirs.

By comparison, Mr. Belkin says that prior to their respective crashes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1929 stood 83% above its 200-week average, and 72% above the corresponding average in 1987. In 1989, Japan's Nikkei index was 59% over its average, while in 1997 Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood 57% above its corresponding average. "All these are
examples of booms based on easy money conditions that led to busts when interest rates began rising," he says.

Why listen to Mr. Belkin? Although some of them regard his views as extreme, his clients include major U.S. and overseas hedge and mutual funds. Calling Mr. Belkin "legitimate," David D. Hale, chief economist at Zurich Kemper Investments Inc., says: "He's got a name on Wall Street ... [and] a good sense of history about the stock market."

Mr. Belkin's recent track record is also pretty good. In late July 1997, just after Thailand floated its currency, he warned clients that other Asian currencies were going to plunge, which they did. In September, and again in early October, he correctly predicted drops in Asian and other emerging stock markets. And in early January, he called the rise in U.S. and European stock markets.

Furthermore, Mr. Belkin isn't completely alone. Andrew Smithers, head of economic and financial consultants Smithers & Co. in London, expects the
U.S. stock market to plunge about 60% and take European and many other markets down with it. The probability of that happening over the next 12
months is about 70%, he figures.

Mr. Smithers bases his gloomy prognosis on Yale University Nobel Laureate James Tobin's "Q-ratio," which compares the stock market value of companies to the current cost of replacing all of their assets. Noting that current share prices are way above corporate replacement costs, Mr. Smithers also says that there is a tendency for extreme valuations to
revert to their historical averages -- and that markets usually overshoot.

If Mr. Belkin and Mr. Smithers stand out for their doomsday views, what is everyone else saying? The common view at the big securities firms in Europe is that European stocks need to correct by perhaps 10% to 15% given their meteoric rise in the first quarter.

Even after last week's declines, "We still see a justification for a correction of up to 10% in continental European markets, and if we were to see a rise in bond yields, then the correction could be larger," says Ian Scott, European equity strategist at Lehman Brothers in London. "After the correction, we would expect them to rise again, but not to resume the same kind of gains," Mr. Scott adds.

Matt Dennis, European strategist at ABN Amro in London, says European markets have benefited from a surge of liquidity and "unbelievably strong domestic demand." In markets such as Italy, where investors have been used to getting yields of 8% to 10%, falling interest rates have encouraged a strong shift into stocks.

That said, Mr. Dennis is "very concerned" about valuations right now, and thinks that an 8% to 12% correction would be healthy for the markets. "I don't think there's any reason to be alarmed about the correction right now," he says, and assuming there are no hiccups along the path to European economic and monetary union, he would expect the markets to
continue to rally.

D-Day is midnight 4/30~~~~~~~that's IF my ISP can do 'that' right,eh!

FARFEL: Your argument that gold must move over the next 30 days or the gold bull is dead shows a lack of historical perspective. As Captain Bill Buckler at the Privateer has pointed out, gold bulls generally consolidate/correct in the spring before taking off again by summer. Surely you of all people should be able to "keep the faith".

Thanks a lot for 7.17.

JM

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980427/market/markets2.html

R.E. prices could tumble in the coming 'unfolding' of reality. Sharefin has made some good posts about R.E. in a crash. In a deflation the debt on your property may be very difficult to pay off. In Houston, after the 70's oil fiasco, people were walking away from very expensive homes as the loans quickly overtook the valuations. A deflationary crash would leave a lot of people on the streets and a lot of banks with worthless loan books. Gold could then buy you R.E. at bargain auction prices.

From Colin Seymour's site:



Everyone seems to know the score,
They've seen it all before,
They just know, they're so sure,
That gold is going to throw it away,
Gonna blow it away,
But I know it can rise,
Cos I remember,

Three dollars on a coin,
Ancient gold still gleaming,
10 plus years of hurt,
Never stopped me dreaming,

It's coming home, it's coming home,
It's coming gold is coming home ( Repeat to end )

Greece, a recent hot performer is down 7% after Friday's loss of 5.5%.
All markets are in the red. The financial system is now leveraged on the equities markets, and we are now entering a dangerous time.

All packed, pard? Geeeze....Teddy, don't lose that number...it's the only one you got. Kitco will hold still until your return.

Late afternoon trading on Monday in Tokyo saw GOLD SOAR: June Futures were UP Yen19, closing near high of Yen1323/gram. This is particularly meaningful since tradionally the Nippons have always favored Platinum amongst the preceious metals. Monday's trading saw Platinum Up only a couple of Yen. This is a significant switch in investment tastes.

So after years of easy pickin's in stocks, 20%+ gains from index funds and no analysis needed, we finally arrive at a time in history where no one ( noone ) knows for sure which way to place their bets. Stocks look pretty frothy with a downside of 50-60%, the downside for gold to a decade low is a measly 10%, and if that is too much risk, then you can buy a 3 month treasury and wait. As for me, I'm long gold and looking to pick up some more if R.J. and others are correct about 300, 296 or even 280. During the next 6-10 weeks history will record the Euro reserves, a further shake out in Japan and a correction in Europe, more bad corporate earnings in the U.S. with an interest rate increase becoming more likely. Add that to another round of mid-east unrest, N. Korea may actually, finally collapse as they can't even pump clean water anymore and will any investment/speculation weather the increasing turbulence of this spring and summer? I think Gold will. Turning points in history are never obvious to the ordinary people who live through them. I don't think Kitco folks are ordinary, do you? Place your bets.

As stated previously on this board, RANGY has not benefited from the DROOY and HGMCY recent breakout ( DROOY and HGMCY look like they need some rest, right now, from a T.A. perspective ) . However, RANGY looks like a good buy at this level ( IMHO of course ) because ( chart in this link: http://members.aol.com/gaston2/april98/ran42798.gif )

( a ) Accumulation increase and Volume increase have been mucho impressive

( b ) RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are rising and are "not too high"

( c ) and what I like the best here, is a tremendous squeeze in its Bollinger Bands... which suggests an IMMINENT break out ( up probably, but cannot exclude down ) . When a stock is that squeezed, a break out will most likely occur during next 5 trading sessions, possibly event today... who knows! ) .

This constellation of T.A. in a gold stock that has not yet really participated in a sector ( gold ) that has turned bullishoid, is possibly a great buying opportunity.... ( It is for me anyways ) ... we will see.

Regarding Ger

Yup! Just consider me one of your "ranglers"......yipppeeee! Ride 'em studio.rangler! Wow! She bucked so high...he touched the sky.....

I agree about rangy concerning bollinger bands ( look at clpzf graph ) however for me going from RYO ( one crazy situation indeed ) to Rangy ( with potential for havoc WHEN Mandella dies ) with all its potential benefits is indeed HARD to do - but the orders are ALMOST in!!

Today..

The Mars conjunct NYSE Venus of last week, so presciently observed weeks in advance by your faithful kitco gastrologer, done come and went with a noticeable, but waning power. There was more action on kitco over it than in the gold market methinks. This does not auger well for gold in the short term. This lack of kickoff follow through warns me the current bullion rally is on weak legs, and likely shares are over extended as well. Gold must take out the 319-320 area soon to get to next resistance at 330, otherwise we'll get that sinking feeling to 296. Then we can look for another basebuilding stretch upwards. Have a great Day All.

Lakefoil...You said:
" ( with potential for havoc WHEN Mandella dies ) with all its potential
benefits is indeed HARD to do.". ( two periods here has both seem to be correct...yes? )
Is Mandella sick? He looks like he could have Parkinson disease to me... which is not a rapidly fatal condition... and I think that gold stocks will have make significant moves ( if that is their destiny ) before he "retires".
Gaston

This website called for short positions in most Fidelity funds and Indexes - BIG TIME on Thursday and Friday ( L denotes long position, S denotes short position ) :

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/fu1htm.html

Looks like their excellent prediction record continues. Stay tuned.

Gold may be near a short-term top:

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

for lakefoil
If you are seriously concerned about Mandela's
contribution to RSA's well being then perhaps
you should buy RYO rather than Rangold and learn
the HARD way.... Not ANOTHER South African
expert ... and from Utah !! ??

on GLOBEX SnP...now down 1150...I think limit is 1500, huh??
Gold holding pretty well in light of the STRONG US$, eh TED?

S&P 500 JUN98 1101.30 -1150

Watch out below 1100 !

Looks like Gold is going to, again, tank with the markets, just like last fall.

We seem to forget this here at Kitco.

HighRise

Gaston2: Many thx for an incisive technical analysis of RANGY ( traded as an ADR on the NASDAQ ) . I totally concur with your bullish TA. In fact I will be posting another TA on RANGY ( from another angle ) sometime this evening at the golden eagle website - which corroborates your conclusions, but indicates quantitative views of future performance vis-a-vis other gold stocks.

Your chart is indeed very revealing. One of the most relaible indicators is called "POSITIVE DIVERGENCE." Your chart is literally covered with it.
POSITIVE DIVERGENCE is simply the rising trend of a technical indicator as price is flat to even falling. Please notice that while the RANGY price trend has been really flat ( especially in relation to its sister stocks, DROOY & HGMCY ) , the three indicators you show ( Accumulation/Distribution, RSI and Stochastics ) have been relentlessly rising. This is termed "POSITIVE DIVERGENCE" to price, which USUALLY portends a significant price rise in the very near future. The
Acc/Dist indicator is particularly bullish.

Gaston2, again thanks you for sharing your work with us - WITH RANGY AT ABOUT $1.50 A SHARE, your TA study is INDEED VERY TIMELY! Especially so when when one takes into account that the 12 month high for RANGY IS $7.75 A SHARE. It bears mentioning that John Disney ( Out of South Africa and the POLARBEAR made an insightful report called RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION, which may be also be seen at the golden eagle website ) .

VERY POSITIVE PRICE DIVERGENCE DEMONSTRATED BY RANGY...

Don't just DO SOMETHING, SIT THERE!

Thank you Shorts-you have gone more naked than I hoped for just last Friday. Down today and early Tuesday- then up late Tuesday or Wednesday. I love guessing this market, hope I'm not crazy. Tom

Mr Disney - I can't tell if I am insulted on being concerned about an aging leader or about being from Utah ( SLC was built on Mining companies - by the way ) - any way - I already own RYO - at 5/8 and wanted Technical opinions on moving to Rangy! - besides ( potential ) insults do you have anything to say? lol

NEW YORK
SPOT PRICE
April 27, 1998
08:51AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents

.
Bid
Ask
Change
Low
High
GOLD
311.40 June CNBC

309.85 Spot
310.35 Spot
-2.55
-0.82%
309.60
311.80
SILVER


6.12
6.16
-0.14
-2.16%
6.12
6.25
PLATINUM


406.00
407.95
-2.90
-0.71%
405.40
408.00
PALLADIUM


371.00
381.00
-5.00
-1.33%
333.00
381.00

S&P 500 JUN98 1098.10 -1470



Oops !! Bye bye !! Have a nice day !!

25 is now the limit on S&P Futures @ -17

HighRise

for gaston2 ..
It makes no difference if mandela is sick or
not .. There would be trouble for a while IF
for example he were gunned down by a Afrikaans
speaking farmer while TV cameras are running.
But thats isnt gonna happen. Mbeki is running
the country ( if you can call it that ) . Mandela
just sits around, attends functions, tries to
remember his lines, wears sunglasses, and tries
not to put his foot in his mouth too often.
People pay a lot less attention to
political activity here than do reporters for
TIME magazine or "concerned" BBC journalists
( both of whom have been hoping for some kind of a
bloodbath since Boer war days .. sorry not to be
more accomodating )

If the dollar is up, why are stocks AND bonds tanking? Remember last fall, day after the crash, when we heard ad nauseum that the market went down BECAUSE money was going into bonds? Do you think we're going to take a run at the new trading collars today? Hey, gold looks pretty good today to me -- down a mere buck or so. Cherokee, here comes your chaos and flux big time. Go gold!

June gold -2.20...winch..ouch...

Strange how gold is plummeting downwards
As globex hits the pits.

Perhaps the PPT's machinations are at work?

Lordy , we couldn't have gold going up $5
While the Dow dropped 150.
Why the flocks would dive straight in.

With so many bonds unsold
I smell a rat.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nick@C
Sold two of my rentals
And now my home is next.
Thats why gold's waiting
Till I'm cashed up
I haven't bought yet
And my precious is waiting
For me on the gravy train.

ps.
For the sake of sanity for the many Kitcoites
I hope I sell my home soon.

for lakefoil.
Your assumption that there will be
havoc in south africa if/when mandela
dies is false.
If you are concerned about his health,
maybe send him a get well card.
Only problem is I dont think he's sick.
Hope this clears things up.
Utah is fine .. but not many experts
on RSA live there.

Good buying opportunity - Gold stocks? Let's watch the XAU. They could be driving Gold down, to keep rotation out of the Dow and into the XAU from happening.

HighRise

To Midas:
Posted Friday that there has been a significant correlation between em swiss putting a spell on Gold and troubles ahead at the int. Stock-markets.

Man, I love to cite myself, when Im right!
Fred@Vanityienna

he!! ... would not suprise me to see XAU UP!!!

.

ASIAN CURRENCY WOES START TO HURT U.S. BANKS
By JOHN CRUDELE

DON'T look now, but many of those currency trades that American
banks have hanging in Asia are starting to spoil.

I wrote about the huge exposure that American banks and brokerages
have to Asian currency derivative trades a couple of weeks ago and
some folks on Wall Street called screaming no, no, no, no.

Well, it turns out that yes, yes, yes there are apparently big
problems...
http://nypostonline.com/business/362.htm

Well thank goodness for that! {:- ) )

http://www.kitconet.com/gold.graph.html

I better put away the stripper
And pick up the brush - pronto

How far will the dow fall, before the dippies come in?
How low can it go, before the PPT go to work?
How long can it go on, before the USA
Realizes that it's a 'global bubble'?

That it's a 'global domino'.
That we now have a 'global derivatives time bomb'

TICKING LOUDER and LOUDER!!!!
Coming closer and closer.

Like Y2K we're on an unvoidable collision course.

But unlike Y2K the date is not yet defined.

For SWP1.
I do not have a brother. Had I a brother, he
would not have been named Russell. I have never
been to Canada. Had I been there, I would not
have gone to Toronto.
I haven't been to Utah either, should the
question arise.

it is possible, in the happy world of strips and derivatives, to dismember one simple conservative US treasury bond into 69 DIFFERENT deals

in frankenstein finance, NO ONE knows what dismembered limb is attached to what, where for how much...wish them luck and they try to re-assemble and breath live into their creature...

lakefoil: The fear of what might occur in South Africa when mandela dies is a figment of the PAID-PER-VIEW imaginations of international jounalists. It is a total MYTH, just as the years' long apprehensions were continuously carping about resulting havoc in China, once Deng Xio Ping kicks the bucket. Subsequently, Deng Xio Ping died, and his people cerimoniously and peacefully buried the revered man - and then it was business as usual: NO HAVOC, NO UNREST, NO CIVIL WAR... it was JUST business as usual after his funeral.

And so will it be in in South Africa, once the revered man is finally laid to rest... business as usual.

The expected havoc is just in the minds-eye of foreign journalists who know very little of what is going on in South Africa. Nonetherless, they have newspapers to sell. And "havoc" sells more papers than "business as usual."

lakefoil, you should appreciate John Disney's views for the following reasons. Firstly, he has NO POLITICAL AX TO GRIND. He is NOT South African. Secondly, he is ON THE SCENE in Cape Town. His knowledge is FIRST-HAND, and not "filtered" through the spin of foreign newspapers carping the same decrepit cliches of the last five years. He is not a journalist, but an astute and successful global investor who can place his money in ANY world financial center - which he believes will give him the greatest return. The man is UN-BIASED! Moreover, he does his own investment homework.

In short, the Mandela apprehension is a total MYTH created and perpetuated by the ill-informed foreign press.

Dear Mr. Vronsky --

Thank you, sir, for your most thoughtful response to my question last night re. the Nikkei: "We're not enjoying this, are we?"

In that gold will serve well as a holding contrary to the demise, ultimately, of the U.S. currency system, preceded by the total meltdown of Japan's, the above question is one that begs asking. Our ( Kitcoites ) holdings will appreciate, but only as others befall severe financial tribulation. Your response was revealing, and summarized well the answer to my question.

Thank you, kind sir, for ALL your posts, and especially for your most excellent web site golden-eagle ( sans the "en" ) . Looking forward to more of your incites as these days play out.

Respectfully,

dj

On quote.com if you look at SPM8 and GCM8 you will see that both were falling at the same time.
The pressure to push gold lower coincided with the globex falling exactly.
Hmmmmm?????

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

http://www.canoe.ca/TopStories/apr26_cuba.html

Ohhhh my, what to do? Physical, contracts or stocks. Such decisions, perhaps I should flip a coin ( preferably a gold one ) but only two sides.



Do you see opportunity or disaster??? Is the glass half full or half empty. What is your downside risk? Can you buy now and smile if gold goes down more because you'll buy more?



Do I wait for the morrow or jump this afternoon? Anyone got a three sided coin. This is exciting, place your bets, Oh, my I've got the answer-the dart board. Yes, yes away to the dart board.



This craziness brought to you by one who sees opportunity. Thanks again shorts.



Tom

and it is such a BIG, HUNGRY CROC! {:- ) )

Dow down 115 and falling
Tick just passed through -1300 and still falling

A very powerful wave
But a ripple in front of what is to come.
A 'financial tsunami'

For Brother vronsky.
Thank you for your kind remarks ... By the way ...
have you seen my brother Russell from Toronto around
here anywhere ??

XAU down a little over 2% so far. Not too bad with the markets tanking and POG off over three bucks.

Unless the XAU gets up to 90 today, we will have a small island reversal on the daily chart.

Could get REALLY ugly today, especially if long bond continues to tank and gold reverses.

ERLE:
Some companies recognize the risks inherent in gold loans and record it in their financial statements. Companies like Franco Nevada and Euro Nevada have lines in the annual statements.... Gold Loans ---- NONE.
They know the dangers and want none of it.
Some companies use a combination of puts and calls to ensure the selling price covers the production costs. No gold loans. Good companies usually explain their hedging stategy. The transparency is good business. Companies that have gold loans in this market are, to my mind, too risky for me.

Gold may rise on talk that Emu will hold alot of it.

Gold and silver both down and Central Fund Canada-UP 1/16. Wonder why? Take a guess.
Tom

There is a report in the WSJ that suggests interests rates are about to go up and hence the Stock markets and gold is dropping. Forget the shorts on this one-- its the newspapers.

I could not have said it better regarding technicals about RANGY... My mothertongue not being english forced me to post the RANGY graph. Regarding the Polabear publication on your site, I did not mention it because it was already mentioned previously here... but that is because of if that I have been in RANGY for the last 3 weeks. Thank you again.
Gaston

Gee! R.J. And farfegnugal slugging it out along with half a dozen others on each man's tag team and I'm snoozing! Well, who won? I notice the gold mining shares market is down a bit already with HM at 12 1/16 down 1/4, NEM 32 7/16 down 7/8 and DROOY 3 3/16 down 3/16. Think I'll go back to bed and sort out the market in retrospect.

The BOJ is dumping US T-Bonds, causing interest rates to soar! The yield on the 30-year long bond is now well over 6%... and rising. Please recally the ORACLE's opinion was that the Nippons would dump US paper and accumulate GOLD. Late Monday trading in Tokyo saw GOLD soar in Yen. Back to back with Tokyo GOLD accumulation, we are witnessing - as I speak - a bloodbath in the US Treasury Bond pits this morning.

Could this be just coincidence... or is the ORACLE's prophecy being fulfilled ( as is Hashimoto's Columbia University threat is materializing ) ?! Nippons dumping T-Bonds and snapping up GOLD will cause interest rates worldwide to surge, precipitating crashes in all 'paper' stock markets - as the GOLD BULL emerges.

LONDON, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Shares in mining group Lonrho
Plc rose 4.4 percent by early afternoon on Monday,
defying weakness elsewhere in the UK equity market, as
stakebuilding by investment bank Morgan Stanley sparked bid
speculation around the company.
Shares in Lonrho -- poised to demerge its Africa trading
business to focus on its gold, coal and platinum mines -- gained
19p to 444-1/2 by 1315 GMT, in modest volume of 314,512 shares.
The Sunday Telegraph said Morgan Stanley had built up a 10
percent stake in Lonrho, adding that unnamed market sources
believed several groups were circling the company. Separately a
report in Monday's Financial Times said there was a good chance
of a bid for either side of the company once the demerger was
complete.
No-one at Lonrho could immediately be reached for comment.
A spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley said its asset management
unit had acquired a stake in Lonrho but this was not a
discloseable stake. She declined comment on whether other parts
of Morgan Stanley had a stake in Lonrho.

Here comes the second wave down.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u
Tells a story

You may have something here, If you are for real, let me know how to respond--T/F or ?, Charlie

Brother John, I wish to congratulate you
on youe excellent call on Palladium. You
said 360, I said it is very unlikely. God,
I was wrong and in big way...

If Oracle is correct, why are bonds up 1.5% this morning? Check out this link:

http://personal32.fidelity.com:80/gen/news/indexes/content/contentmajormarkets.html.tvsr

If Oracle were correct, what does that mean for the POG? Apparently not much, since the price is headed down today.

June Gold consolidates, then drops down below $311 to scoop up the few remaining shorts, and then the SURGE begins. Adding to position. Go GOLD!
LEE ( Gawd, this is exciting ) .

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
Only two indices in the black.
A few indices down over 7%
And we are at the beginning
Of the top of the bubble
And it's happening globally

This selloff almost seems ominous
Its nature is different from last Octobers.

Its volatility at such an early stage of the decline
Assures further lows as the wave of selling
Revolves around the world.

Charlie - good for a joke - ( :^ )

Thanks. Right after I posted my server went down and I just got it back. Today looks like a lot fun too bad I got to go work. Say hi to Russell for me.

Flight to safety starts NOW! Exits are very small. Tom P.S.-Swiss franc's anyone? Maybe gold?

see it move up all through summer...

June Gold consolidates, drops below $311 to pick up the shorts - then surges. It's happening as we speak. Go GOLD. ( Gawd, this is exciting ) .

Lee

Italy now down over 8%

Dow down 180
And someone's pushing the PREM up.

[27APR98 19:22 JST]
The dollar soared to 132.85 ,supported by continued strong demand.
The US currency dipped to 130.81 in the morning session for fear of intervention by BOJ but buy orders from Japanese investment trust
funds stemmed its fall. The dollar extended its gains to 131.79 triggering stop buy orders at 131.50 on remarks from Mr.Sakakibara
who was quoted as saying that permanent income tax cuts are important
but not imminent concerns. He also said that Japan was contacting G7 countries to mull over joint interventions.

During lunch time the dollar jumped beyond 132 on a wire report that BOJ's Ueda said 5 to 10% yen depreciation from current levels would
not pose a threat to Japan's economy.

http://plaza4.mbn.or.jp/~skoike/mktcomm.htm

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 10:22
Year2000 ( Bonds are DOWN?? ) ID#228100:
YOU SAID:
"If Oracle is correct, why are bonds up 1.5% this morning?"

Dear friend, those are the YIELDS that are rising, not the bond prices!
Surely, you are aware of the difference.

Indeed, the ORACLE WAS, ANS IS RIGHT-ON.

for Aztec ..
That Russell was the greatest brother a guy
never had.
For Brother Oris.
Glad you're back .. My good palladium call
offsets my so far lousy gold call. By the
way .. did you happen to have a brother
named Dmitri ??

Prediction--Vronsky and Disney will drown sometime in 1998 from all the BS they're spreadin' at this site about SA. Unbiased? If you believe that I've got some K-Tel stock I'd like to unload on ya'

...a concerted gold short squeeze is in the works. Try and get on board before the upspike.

Gentlemen, you WILL enjoy the ride.

Thanks.

F*

The bell saved most of the european markets today. Them, who are still open, get hammered hard. Take the performance of for instance Italy and Portugal ( who obviously forgot to close the front door ) - and place your bet, whats gonna happen tomorrow in EU.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

...market shorts will target, MICROSOFT, IBM ( DOW bellwether ) , and GENERAL ELECTRIC in the latter part of the day.

Amazing tug of war developing right now. It is quite something to watch.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980427004327107?=mar&template=Mar_Article.htx&maxfieldsize=1162
Peru plans to produce 86 tons of gold this year, 13 per cent more than last year's 76 tons, despite lower gold prices on the international market.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980427004327026?=mar&template=Mar_Article.htx&maxfieldsize=7689
Global oversupply puts pressure on oil markets
Global oversupply kept pressure on oil markets on Friday, tugging benchmark Brent crude prices under $14 a barrel for the second consecutive day.

Good morning all: I hope you are right about the squeeze but with the price of gold falling, it is hard to say whether there is a squeeze or not. By the way, what makes you say there is a gold short squeeze. Thanks. Go Gold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/fed_offici_1.html
NEW YORK, April 27 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that the U.S. economy may not be slowing as much as they expected or desired, and they are considering raising short-term interest rates in coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

The report, quoting ``Fed officials,'' said Fed policy makers agreed at their March 31 meeting that a rate increase is more likely than a rate decrease.

Policy makers have thus abandoned the neutral stance they adopted in December, when they signaled that they might cut rates if Asian economic turmoil intensifies, the report said.

Fed officials say Asia seems to be stabilizing and domestic economic vigor appears to be offsetting the effects of the Asian problems, it said.

In speeches and interviews, Fed officials are beginning to prepare markets for a Fed move to brake the economy, unless it slows on its own soon, the newspaper said.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980427025111028?=world&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1764
Germany
Crushing loss for Kohl in key regional poll
Chancellor Dr Helmut Kohl's conservatives were routed by Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats yesterday in a regional vote seen as a key test for federal elections in the autumn, computer projections showed.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/lebanon_ra_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/mexican_ma_1.html

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980427010340064?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2283

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/indonesia__1.html
"We hate Suharto," they chanted. "We want reform."
``We need a new president, we need a new cabinet,''
`Suharto cannot solve the monetary crisis.''
``It's going to be like Tiananmen Square,'

SDRer reported: "The US currency dipped to 130.81 in the morning session for fear of intervention by BOJ but buy orders from Japanese investment trust funds stemmed its fall. The dollar extended its gains to 131.79 triggering stop buy orders at 131.50...".

Is it possible that the above mentioned Japanese investment trust funds act in the opposite direction as does the BOJ, by exercising the Yen-carry ? If yes, what a mess!!
Indeed, T-bonds are down and interest rates are up as vronsky reports, which shows that BOJ is dumping T-bonds.
Does anybody have an idea about the volume behind the Yen-carry?

Alberich the Dwarf

P.S.: for those who do not know what Yen-carry means:
1 ) a Japanese speculator takes out a huge Yen-credit for extremely low interest rate ( i.e., next to nothing )
2 ) this J-speculator buys US$ and with US$ buys T-bills and T-bonds enjoying a much higher interest rate.

The Yen-carry makes money folw in the opposite direction as the BOJ market intervention. Isn't that fun?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/cme_june_s_1.html

...the key words are, "is in the works."

Now do you understand?

Thanks.

F*

does 'in the works' mean today, this week, next week, next month, next year, next decade ( ? )

hmmmmmm

away...from permabulls



http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

Good to see a thinking, rational, objective being on the forum today. Don't let the *F word capitalize the place to everyone's detriment. He SO reminds me of that "BO" fella who talked all those poor dewey eyed gullible souls into taking that poison concoction and following him off to the comet Hale/Bopp.

All...beware of zealots... even articulate ones. They will lead you to doom........

Oh yes...go GOLD.... ( interesting how it drops in the face of the rout in stocks today...maybe that crash scenario wouldn't cause $6000 Gold after all hmmmm? Or is today's drop a result of the "squeeze" that *F word is talking about? I always thought a squeeze would puch it the other direction...particularly with money flowing out of stocks & bonds....of well, what do I know..... )

"The bell saved most of the european markets today... place your bet, whats gonna happen tomorrow in EU"
My bet is - nothing terrible will happened tomorrow in EU. Will be more black then red

Well done! I think the *Fartful/fitful one needs to be brought down a few rungs. Seems his ego and overall sense of self-importance travel at the speed of light these days.

Thanks
***LJ***

Cycle events

According to Don Wolanchuck, we are now in the area for a gold to exrerience an "event" ( negative ) and bottom. He is currently long and plans on adding to his position if there is a spike low enough.

While Paper Markets are being hammered mercilessly, the SA Golden Trio is down ever so slightly - an indication of relative strength, and perhaps a good time to get some.

RANGY down only 1/32cd
DROOY down only 1/16th
HGMCY down only 1/4

Side margines have been out for several days.

new engine for growth kicks into life...

for the Pyrites Prophet..
and that leaves YOU out...

The dart board says: 1 ) not enough of a correction in gold stocks to buy more; 2 ) contacts not low enough for more; 3 ) physical only option. Wait for the morrow. Tom P.S. Unless spot down $3-$4 yet today

It is interesting that the impetus for this downdraft has essentially been provided by the English--and to a lessor degree, German-- press. When one considers too, that the mideast peace talks migrated quietly from Camp David to 10 Downing,one can not help but wonder....USG is beginning to look more and more isolated and slightly shabby. Power depends, in many respects, on the same supports as Trust; and, as Sharefin as pointed out, Trust can be blown to smithereens in seconds.
BIS vs. WB?

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Go back and take a remedial class for investing. Those are indexes for the price of the bonds, not the yields... ( e.g. the DJIA doesnt yield 8936.57. )

If you would like to make an intelligent contribution based on my post, feel free to respond to my original question: If Oracle were correct, what does that mean for the POG? Apparently not much, since the POG is headed down today.

What drivel! I don't consider 4% + losses buying opportunities. If gold and gold stocks can't rally on a day like this, then I guarantee you there is more on the downside! Caveat emptor!

Year2000 ( Bonds are DOWN?? ) ID#228100:
"If Oracle is correct, why are bonds up 1.5% this morning?"

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

Risk always passes into increasingly weaker hands. There are MANY in Japan who are willing to throw the dice in the hope of getting even.
Build your most frenzied profile and youll probably be +/- 7% correct! {;- ) )

Reuters, April 28--The Swiss anticipate that Holocaust Bank Accounts
will require huge sums to pay off the jews. Swiss authorities estimate
that 1000 metric tons of central bank gold will be sold to finance the
transaction.

Negociations start today.

Look at the june TBOND future it is down 1.08 ( T bond yield up to 6.05% )
The reason why the bond is tanking is an article in the journal stating that the fed has a tightening bias since last meeting and is likely to hike rates in july.

The SWISS people has to approve by referendum any GOLD sale.
THEY WON'T.

Hope these are of use: http://www.macintouch.com/g3.html http://www.macfixit.com/reports/G3.shtml

For Year 1000
bond YIELDS are UP ... by about 0.1%
means bonds are DOWN...
.... There is an fairly reasonable
contribution ..
..... Now its your turn

Lets lay off Vronsky, his golden eagle site brings forth much information for those leaning toward hard money to think about and we should be thankful that a such a site exists.

...to try and intimidate the good gentlemen of this forum.

And yet, I say, "Oh, what a beautiful morning ,
Oh, what a beautiful day,
Everything's coming up roses,
Because EVERYTHING is going my way."

Thanks.

F*

"Good Gentlemen" ?? You really are a generous sort ... to your self eh *F? That's what I love about the forum..all are allowed to post. Not Nazi Germany yet ( much though you may wish it was.... )

...protect yourself today.

Lots of action coming up.

Thanks.

F*

The YEN plus GOLD carry trade are rumored to be in the $ 1000 billions area.
Thus , it is interesting to compare the misleading information that we get about GOLD and YEN.
All the speculatives positions are in pyramiding mode on this trades and that is what frightens our good CB friends.

RJ: Appreciate your post about gold this morning, despite your trepidations to do so. We are very short on individuals who are equally at home in predicting up - or down- trends in gold. Most of the most outspoken here are permagold bulls, and that does not make for good investing advice.

Over the years I have found the insight of the shorter-term traders such as yourself to be the most useful. You, Oldman, and APH, D.A. , EB and others. There is alot to be said for those who are equally at home in up and down markets, as then minimizes the bias. It is disappointing to see that there are so many Kitcoites who do not appreciate this.

I find it fairly easy to translate your words into my predominantly long-term investing approach. It is just a matter of knowing what time range is appropriate.

Thanks again. Hope all is well with you, and that you have advance notice of the gold bug Tsunami. Just in case, I would suggest looking west out your window toward the Pacific fairly frequently. I was in Calif for a time, and know about those rogue rollers. Was off the coast of San Diego one time in a 37 foot Yawl I rented - just myself and spouse. Remember looking about 3 miles back toward the coast, only to see it disappear for about a minute. The rise of the 500 foot plus roller was so gentle that I might not otherwise have noticed. But -- I would not have wanted to be on the beach when it broke.

We may not have much warning. How are your surfer friends doing lately?

Saw the Fat Lady backstage.....she's hackin' out her scales...ouch! Had to help her with her brass bra....you know me, ol' stage "hands"...just here to help! Lord Disney...."pyrites prophet" ( whoa! ) Good day to buy a little mas rangito....

For LGB..
Full Marks for cheap shot of the week..
Those that you dislike are Nazis..
how groovey ..
How do you stand yourself ??

Excellent charts on the 3 SA stocks.

Please, can I have your permission to post your URL to the RYO msg board?

Thanks.

Great, now we can add the holocaust as another reason to why Gold should go down......

$6,000-$30,000/oz gold has nothing to do with equities markets. This longshot scenario is about the position of the dollar as a reserve currency to the world and to the potential gold backing of ALL credible currencies.

If gold became money as a result of the new global financial architecture then it would become revalued against all other assets based on it's relative rarity. Total global assets divided by total amount of gold. Other assets would not rise in price due to this revaluation so the buying power of gold would increase.

NASDAQ is down 2.8%. If the Dow were down that far it would be off 250.

Let's see, $6,000.00/OZ gold......Where would that put my BMG? I can only hope!

Does this give VR the right to propagandize his SA crap all over THIS site for which he pays not a thin dime while disparaging thos ewho might disagree with his BS? This has nothing at all to do with the Golden Eagel site and everything to do with personality, hubris, and RSA BS!

The concept that the Swiss National Bank has already loaned large amounts of gold that will never be returned is as interesting as are their endeavors to drive the gold price down. Hmm. This concept that was brought up here at KITCO and is indeed interesting.
As for their referendum concerning gold backing, IMO the people will not vote to lower the percentage ( 40% ) as based on the SNB's stated value per ounce ( I believe it's $140?? ) .
In fact such a referendum may cause grounds for the split-up of Switzerland into two or more separate nations.

SDRer, Alberich: Any feedback as to when these trades will unravel? Does all of this rollover into our debt, or will interest rates rise when it happens? I think there is greater risk of the Yen-dollar carry unraveling first, since the latter is CB-controlled.

There are well over 1.5 trillion US dollars outside the US.

for Ceaux-Dutheil
You may not knew.. but Randfontein announced
quarterlies last week .. they made 0.6 rand/share
after capex .. this is 2.4 rand annually at what
I think was about the lowest quarterly rand gold
price for the year .. A 10 to one p/e puts them
at 24 and they were trading 15 plus on friday.
The Mining journal puts their resources at
40 mill oz.

http://fnews.yahoo.com/street/98/04/27/fund2_980427.html

for the Pyrites Prophet..
Nobody wants YOU to buy any RSA
stock .. PLEASE buy anything else.
Vronsky provides a service and does
a lot of work .. I do not see you
making anything but a badmouth
contribution.

...since I expressed my heartfelt appreciation for your providing this forum to all precious metals advocates.

Therefore, I wish once again to express my profound gratitude. We are all fortunate that you had a brainstorm some time ago to create this terrific web-site.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks.

F*

I do not think that Mr. Vronsky propagandizes his site in this forum.

He provides excellent info, ( together with LORD DISNEY ) on SA stocks.

Some of us who hold SA stocks need all info we can get.

Thank you Mr. Disney and Mr. VRONSKY for all SA info you continue to provide.

Vronsky. Keep pumping out the SA gold info. Anyone who followed your
posts in the last month could have made a years worth of cash on Durban Deep alone. Getting info on the probable direction for gold and how to make money on it is the reason for this site. Everything else is just filling in time or telling the Net what your grand daddy told you.

Today might be a timely day to buy a little Amazon.com, Korea Fund or some BSfontein! Sheeesh!

Sorry, I meant to ask: What makes you think that a gold sqeeze is in the works? I'd like to read your opinion. Have a great day.

What is the symbol for BSfontein?

Now, about Randfontein, I was thinking of doubling my existing holdings today

Your views please...

Thank you very much for the excellent
details that you have furnished on South
African Stocks.

The in depth research that you performed is
appreciated.

I hold NA PM stocks as well as RSA stocks.
Always looking for information that is
credible and, if memory seerves me right,
RSA stocks did lead the pack during the last
bull run in PM'S.

Gold is gonna' get smashed together with stocks! Spot gold now below $310 and falling together with stocks! This is NOT gonna' be a timely day to buy anything much less BSfontein! AND I'M AS ARDENT A GOLD BUG AS VRONSKY AND DISNEY! DO NOT GET SWEPT UP IN GOLD EUPHORIA!

for fixing the frames. Tom

For the pyrites prophet..
Yes you buy lots of that stuff..
Im sure you'll do as well as you
deserve to do... and it couldn't
happen to a nicer chap.

The Swiss always seem to be behind every nefarious scheme for Gold. What is their ultimate objective for the price of Gold in U.S. dollar terms, eh? Sure wish I'd taken some language courses in Swiss in college.

My brain circuits are fried thinking about all the varied forces at work in the world right now affecting the POG. I like Ray's view when he says to just look out the window.

For the pyrites wonder..
Oddly enough .. your last pile of crapola
made some sort of half sense...
Looks like the hole that got kicked in the
dow is starting to affect my favorite metal.
Are we gonna get that spike down .. is my
end april prediction to oris gonna come TRUE??
I hope NOT .. Is my unlicensed
soothsayer son right again .. I HATE
that...

Down $3-time to check the contract prices. Darts, anyone? Tom

Is you fate similiar to Bronze and "Bronze age"????????

For Myrmidon ..
A wise choice .. I think an easy
50 % gain is on the cards as long as
gold doesnt fall apart .. which it
seems to be doing .. ( it has been
cursed by the dreaded pyrites prophet
and that curse should take at least
five minutes to wear off ) .
Hark .. silver MAY be at a support..
would not like it lower.

...the wide variety of fascinating gentlemen who post their tremendous ideas pertaining to PM's, most notably Vronsky, Missing Link, Donald, Leland, Myrmidon, Kaplan, Kosares, Old Gold, Aurator, Disney ( the Mousester ) , Golden Cheesehead, Golden Prophet, Ted, Mozel, Haggis, Studio, Bill2J, APH, Midas, Mr. Another, silverbaron, sam, lock&lode, Sheller, NJ, Argent, Sequin, Highrise, JTF, 223, Allen, PH in LA, SWP, Junior, Nick, Jeremy A.Goose, Aurator, Aurophile, Jims, Jman, Jin, jack, Prometheus, TYoung, tricky, Jonesy...and just too many names to remember.

What an education you have provided to each and every one of us. You are all the heroes of this incipient gold bull. Congratulate yourselves.

Although at times we have had our intellectual war games, nevertheless, I believe we have all shared on common bond...an unyielding belief in the value of gold and silver and an uncanny patience in awaiting the arrival of this particular week.

Thanks.

F*

With a little over 2 hours to go, the DJIA is down 210. This is about a 2.3% decline.

Plunge Protection Team just swung into action... Gotta get that sucker back over -200 PTS...

DOW down over 200.

For Pyrites prophet..
Keep accumulating BSfontein ..
your dividends will be delivered in
a wheelbarrow...

Radio talk show host Bob Grant interviews Chief Petty Officer
Kathleen Janoski about the cover up of the investigation of
the death of Commerce Secretary Ron Brown after the plane
crash in Bosnia.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/

Also read Geoff Metcalf's article in which he mentions, among
other things, about the violent deaths of 17 Clinton
bodyguards.

Criminals, Drug lords and other nefarious types who wanted to bury the looted and ill gotten wealth in white snow capped alpine peaks. This market just does not make sense. Money is flowing out of T-Bills, equities and is apparently going nowhere at this moment. If Swiss had not come out with their repeated sick announcements, Gold would be soaring today.

Why? Because at one level, the player's nexus is, Weve got to get rid of some of this paper -- that is, DEBT. 

There are way too many dollars, but there are also too many yen, too many Dmarks. Now the German plan for halving their paper supply is plodding over potholes toward its goal. One would reasonably suppose that the Japanese have a plan too; care to speculate as to what machinations they might devise?

As for the dollar...well, there are a couple of possibilities--
neither of which is 'pleasant'.

This is just my opinion. Gold will make a bottom near the end of April then rally till the middle of may.This is an estimate, but see gold going up to $326/$327.

Today would be yet another good day to release a story about the 1000 tons of gold to be unloaded soon....but before this can happen, the banks need to buy it...a very minor detail ( not worthy of mention ) .

Wow. The Dow tanks 200 points and the tone here changes. Midas has a good point about Swiss banking, eh?

Please, can I have your permission to post your URL to the RYO msg board?
SURE

My take on this subject is that U.S. Govt could be pressuring
the swiss to make these kind of announcements to hold down
the price of gold. The Swiss are in a world of hurt because
of recent revelations about their gold dealing with the Nazis
during ww2. There is probably other secret information known
by the U.S. and their allies which if revealed would severely
damage the Swiss economy. Just part of the continuing gold
war.

Does NASDAQ have any support around here, or will it blow through 1800. Any comments?

Before anyone can make a wise investment, they should always hear both pro and anti remarks. Anyone can give an opinion but it is up to other individuals to accept or reject the concept. The more ideas we read on this great forum, the more we can learn. We should welcome all constructive comments related to the precious metals sector whether we agree or disagree. The only thing to be 100% correct is hindsight. INMVHO.

Ok, Ok - we've got our daily double bottom in - now a big surge up to finish the trading day.
Lee

I can speak only for myself, and I will, my investment in RSA golds has netted me a 37% return in the last three months ( if I were to sell today ) . These positions comprise the best investment that I have made in ten years. I acted on the information that John Disney and vronsky freely provided. I am very grateful to them.

Well, one thing seems certain. Somebody is pressuring the Swiss. Is it the U.S.? I'm not sure that it is. Any thoughts?

Yours are the wisest words of wisdom I've seen on the forum today, whether re Gold or any other investment.

Looking weak !

Will someone please explain to me WHY both gold and silver are so weak
when the Dow, the S&P and NASDAQ are all having one of their worst days in weeks if not months? Are the metals reacting IN SYMPATHY with these indices? God help us! There's gotta be a reason better than that. I'm just not smart enough to see it, I guess. Used to be ( years ago ) when the Dow was down hard gold would romp and play. I haven't seen that in a long time. Wish it were that way again!

Might as well roll the dice. Tom

Heresay RYO went into production over the weekend on Kemmess ( sp ) .

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/durban042498.html ( and as always, remove the "en" )

SDRer__A ( who is driving what where... ) ID#288156:

it is possible, in the happy world of strips and derivatives, to dismember one simple conservative US treasury bond into 69 DIFFERENT deals

in frankenstein finance, NO ONE knows what dismembered limb is attached to what, where for how much...wish them luck and they try to re-assemble and breath live into their creature...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Knock knock.

"Who's there?"

Tranche-ula

"Tranche-ula who?"

Tranche for the memories. Orange ya glad it wasn't derivula.

Gold may hamper this superior global currency. Inspite of looking down on Gold. USA has hundreds of Tonnes in their Fed vaults in NY, wherein many countries have entrusted their Gold bullion to the Fed. When the cother countries trade Gold between themselves, The Fed wheel's it from one compartment to another within the same vault. Let's not forget that South Korea and Thailand had to procure gold from the public for currency stabilization at the instigation of IMF recently. It will take a few days/weeks for general public to realize Gold's importance IF the equities continues to tank. When Joe 6 pack starts to buy than no power, whether it be the CB nexus or IMF or Fed or any darn entity can stop it's rise. As for my part, I continuously urge and try to convince people towards PM. The listeners may be more proactive now as equities are going South all over the Globe........

Where is the short squeeze in Gold. Farfel you must be composing your answer having been asked the same question twice in the last hour. Seems the shorts haven't heard about it yet, or are waiting for bottom door to start their buying.

What is the word on the COMEX expriing April contract and the 4000 contracts for delivery - that's where the news is. RJ yu the big trader - heard anything about the April Comex deliveries.ejen

DOW and S&P Indexes are down over 2%, NASDAQ down over 3%, 30YearBond is crushed...yet, all is right in my world. When I get home and peer into my safe, the pile of gold within will be no smaller than it was yesterday. In fact it may get larger as it seems that bullion dealers are not charging so much for gold today...

Remember, no matter what happens in the markets, that pile of gold you might own doesn't get any smaller ( for those of us who care about that sort of thing, eh, TolerantOne? )

In the indicated URL ( CBS market watch of SA ADRs ) RANGY is not shown.
Any idea why? Randfontein is not shown either.

What is Randfontein, RANGY, and RANDGOLD?

RANDGOLD trades with ticker RANGY, I have bought it with this symbol.
What is Randfontein's relationship to RANGY. How do the two tie together?
Any different symbol for Randfontein?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Vronsky, Lord Disney, anyone... please explain to the dummy Myrmidon!

What your're seeing today is the beginning of a classic liquidity squeeze. As more and more people bail out of stocks and bonds the most highly leveraged players ( and with all the home equity loans and credit cards out there who isn't leveraged in this market? ) HAVE TO SELL which only reinforces the desire and need on the part of others to sell! It's a vicious but necessary self-cleansing. With bonds tanking together with stocks, the first refuge investors flee to is CASH ( T-bills, money markets,etc. ) LATER ON, AS CONDITIONS IN THE REAL ECONOMY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, investors FLEE TO GOLD!! BUT NOT UNTIL THE CLEANSING PROCESS IN STOCKS AND BONDS HAS PRETTY WELL RUN ITS COURSE! We may well have to tread water in the metals or even go lower before FEAR turns to PANIC and the DOLLAR starts to plunge ( a necessary precursor for a sustained bull market in gold in US dollar terms ) . Hope I've helped you if even a little! Wiedersehen!

Mkt down / Bonds down / Metals down / money going to cash!

In '29, the DOW was 385
Then in '32 it was 41

Today the DOW is 9000
Same % drop today = 979

Consider what this means for the POG and how the world operates. If we got back to a ratio of 1:1 that is POG:DOW, then this means that AU will climb to $979/oz. Not bad !!

Remember, history repeats itself and the prospects of a POG:DOW ratio of 1:1 or 1:2 WILL happen again. Keep the faith everyone.

You honor me, sir, to mention my handle in the same paragraph as the many incisive and esteemed minds you listed. The heroism you describe, however enticing to adopt as one's own, is nevertheless grandiose. I may speak for a few others by saying I'm here to protect myself and loved ones. Rather than expect a parade for doing merely what you're supposed to do, I think many here will agree: We'll settle for the money.

Thank YOU, Mr. F*

Respectfully, jonesy

we are having a REDEMPTION problem,he advised me to bend over and kiss my
@#$% goodbuy.....

Make that 50.084% and call you.

Last Tues I offered an opinion that the Swiss would release news that would negatively impact AU because the SF was getting to strong & would adversely effect their exports. 2 days after that the first neg news was realeased & today more neg news. Accordingly I sold some ABX last Thurs.
I have no idea how low the POG can go, but 305 would'nt surprise me & would be a great chance to load up.

...you weathered the storm...the USG in concert with Swiss National Bank threw everything but the kitchen sink at you today. No surprise there.

Yet, a mere $3.00 drop in spot.

Who would have thought gold investors would be so oblivious to such "fire-in-the-theatre" announcements.

I hope you are all on the gold long side as of close of market. As for the general equities and bonds markets, well....

Enjoy the week ahead. Trust me, you will.

I will post a report later.

Thanks.

F*

Time for the Swiss populace to pull an audit on the ol' gold vaults....ohmy....don't worry, at least you've got some watches and chocolates to sell. ANDY! ANDY! GET YOUR ASS IN HERE! RIGHT NOW!

My country's house isn't in such great shape! {:- )
The Swiss/Nazi gold thingy is a MOP operation; reading through old WWII documents, one encounters the "Safehaven" program. The OSS knew to a gram where every particle of gold dust 'rested'; they tracked every phennig out of Germany; had in depth discussions with the Swiss; gave STERN lectures to the governments of Portugal and Spain, on ad infinitum.

And, when one talks with a Swiss banker, they sincerely feel that money is amoral, it is a lifeless 'thing', and inorganic entity and, as a
neutral country, they are obliged to deal even-handedly with scalawags and saints.

Tom

The Swiss DEPLORE the idea of scared money running to the
Swissie; in plays havoc with their tidy bookkeeping. {:- ) )

DRFNY, RYO, SSC, VENGF are unchanged,

PRU up 1/16.

Unusual strength in the above stocks in view of the XAU weakness.

Can't even get a Dec contract order filled on a down day. Always the morrow,eh. Tom

Last Saturday I have posted here, that Dow and Gold will move in same direction in coming days, with chart and explanation. See: Sat Apr 25 1998 15:16

Some weak hands holding gold could not resist their "dipster" mentality. This little DOW/Nasdaq selloff is perhaps viewed as a premier buying opportunity prior to DOW 10,000. They are selling what gold they have to buy into stocks. Perhaps T-bond holders are doing likewise. Of course, some may be content to remain in cash.

I WORK to pay my bills...a concept foreign to some. I will work until I die, toiling at what pleases me. After bills are paid, the yellow pile grows... it gets no smaller on days like these. I smile at this...

I feel that you have become increasingly strident & should lighten up a little ( actually a lot ) . You do us all a disservice by berating & discouraging posters such as RJ & LGB, who IMHO have been a great help in counterbalancing the cheerleading that too often passes for fruitfull discussion & analysis on this forum.

REALLY LOL! Very clever {:- ) ) )

REALLY LOL! Very clever {:- ) ) )

GLG owners, our day has come...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980427/glamis_gol_1.html

Just found an article in the April 6, Spotlight, a Washington populist
newspaper. The article states the following, and I quote:
"The World Jewish Congress headed by Canadian Edgar Bronfman is manipulating the U.S. Govt to pressure
the Swiss for reprations for their dealings with the Nazis regime.
The Swiss have decided to fight and as a conseqence,the two biggest Swiss banks Credit Swiss and Society of Swiss banks have merged and Union bank of Switzerland has made a strategic alliance with a powerful Japanese bank.
The WJC is pressuring the U.S. into a world boycott
of Switzerland and the Swiss would retaliate in kind with the help
of other countries such as Japan and certain other oil countries.
Swiss parlimentarians are demanding that their govt. cancel all
legal and financial co-operation with the Clingon adm"
IMO don't know if there is any substance to this story.

Get the article at you local library,if you are further interested.

2BRnot2B........you should be ashamed....braggart! 2BR02Brag.

robnoel....Redemption ( is this the same as Deliverance?.. ( squeal ) ) funny.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980427/markets_pr_1.html

Danke schoen, meinen freund. That helped.

For those who may have gotten the wrong idea, DOW 10,000 is NOT a foregone conclusion. But, it's your money, have FUN with it!

In sensing a general feeling of the tide of markets and opinion turning against his favor, Farfel Fellow has decided that stuffing his nose in the collected Kitco "nether orifices" ( thanks, Sheller ) is the wiser route. After coating his proboscis with pandering to Bart, he then calls out to his fan club, and shoves his nose up theirs. Seems a lonely man, desperate for affection, now sees his moony eyed followers finding more value in facts than in his own emotion laden goldbug belches.

I offer to sell gold to this fellow at the lowest price in the country. He say's he lives about 40 miles north of my office. I will deliver through Brinks, Los Angeles. Everyone here knows who I am and where I work. He has my phone number, yet there is no call from the buying more and taking delivery fellow.

Either he has no money, and this is all some wonderful form of cyberdollar masturbation, or he is buying more and taking delivery at a higher price than has been offered him. Either course seems foolish and emotional.

Perhaps the chant should be altered to:

I'm buying more, at whatever price as long as it is not from RJ, even though I am paying more, but I don't care. Money fairly falls from my brown nose, and I deign to pay more for my gold than I have to.

As for insecure.. This is the first time this word has been applied to me. I think it is rather the complete conviction with which I state my opinions that galls this fellow so. Nay insecure, rather confident and optimistic.

This fellow says he believes in physical metal. I trade physical metal for a living. I delivered better than a thousand ounces of gold last week. Yet he will attack at every turn. Seems this guy makes up his mind with only the group of facts that he approves of. He cannot be bothered by information from a professional. This is a very unwise way to invest. That he exhibits these proclivities tells me that it is more likely his money and common sense have traveled the same road. All roads lead away from him, as the tide of history will prove.. Soon.

OK

I note with pleasure for you that the Jones name was last but still included in a long list of fellow travelers. How about this thriller ride, huh Mr. Jonesy. The XAU bounced a little lower than I like, but at least it bounced. Some individual issues are particularly resistant.

I will be a buyer here soon. How are things my friend?

... but you might note I do not play with posters names...I simply address the comments of certain posters in the most unemotional, analytical fashion possible...

On the other hand, I cannot say the same thing about your various friends you mention. I apparently seem to drive them up a wall.

My arguments are compelling and they are true. They annoy you because of their inherent veracity. They annoy Wall Street. They annoy the Swiss National Bank.

If you construe this be stridency, then that is most likely because you
wish that such arguments would be silenced in the face of your gold short logic which you so happily post upon this forum.

Sorry, but I will continue to analyze the inherent, erroneous logic of the polemic against gold and silver.

Thanks.

F*

Your post at 3:39 to aurator was a fine piece of work. Golden.

Yes, now that you mention it, I DO recall seeing your post on the subject.
Thanks for refreshing my memory. I will read it again. Your observation was timely, indeed.

...naturally, I wish you the happiest day you can possibly have.

Thanks.

F*

Thanks for the Yahoo link. Some small cap mining stocks have taken a drubbing the last two trading days but if gold and silver hold their support tomorrow I look for the rest of the week up. --AG

Leland@Yahoo.thanks GREAT catch!
accussing = accusing Interesting thing, the human mind {:- )
sorry for double post
bbl

Treasury officials plan to unveil the new bill on May 20, but it isn't scheduled to enter circulation on a broad basis until the fall. Plans call for an intensive public-education program during the summer to familiarize Americans with the features of the bill. Preparations will be much more elaborate this time than they were for the two new bills already introduced -- the $100 and $50 Federal Reserve Notes -- because the $20 is used by a far higher percentage of the American people. It is, in fact, the highest- denomination note used by most Americans in their daily business.

Full article at http://www.coindealer.com/library/show_article.html?ArticleID=286

.

One good thing today, CNBC can prepare another DOW 9000 marathon show - 9000 revisitied.

Goose where are you - weren't you the one bringing in all the data on the April Comex deliveries which I now seem to be the only one that cares about it.

Any news or no news or old news - what all the longs roll over to June, probably.

Dow now down 168. NASDAQ down 2.9%. PPT at work here? No matter. All in all, looks very ugly for the DJIA. BMG, eh?

I do not share the days enthusiasm about the Dow or gold. In fact, todays market behavior has all the appearances of previous one or two day sell-offs, complete with a tanking XAU that has become all to prototypical of this bull. While a rise in rates will take this market down about 4-5%, I believe the bulls will return to rule the day until the Euro bond market begins to siphon a substantial amount of liquidity sufficient enough to endanger our "safe haven" reputation. Eventually this will happen, particularly in light of the relatively high rate that U.S. bonds command. But I am disheartened by golds behavior. It remains the choice of last resort for the present, and we will not see it move significantly until the bull is smashed and investors regard equities a poor choice.

for myrmidon
There is no connection between
rangold and randfontein .. Im
not sure if there is an ADR
on randfontein ... rangold is a
holding company .. randfontein
is a mine ..

Ed Yardeni on CNBC just showing the light to the people, calling a major 1973 like recession as soon as next year RE Y2K BUG

All/sharefin: Today we had another example of the direct coupling of gold/gold stock prices and the equities markets. I am about 50% cash/40% gold equities/10% equities ( computer stocks ) , and regretting it. But those who are 100% equities are regretting it more. I do have some Dec 98 puts The Mexico puts will probably do the best if we really head south.

We should never assume that the 'weak hands' as someone called them will not sell their precious metals stocks when the great Wave finally hits the beach.

Fortunately we are at the threshold of a gold rally, probably strengthened by the current 'ping'. Lets just hope that is what it is -- another precursor --- not 'the big one'.

By the way I doubt that AG will raise rates -- too much uncertainty in the world markets. But -- if the dollar tanks -- the risk to the world's markets is less -- and AG might go ahead. I doubt a collapse in the dollar, because of the 'flight to safety' effect.

Voyeur Professor: I hope you have your raincoat and and rubber boots on.

James-- The bear case is made anywhere, everywhere,
most ubiquitously through thundering silence. My point,
for the bull case, if not here, where?

Fancying plurality a good thing, all inputs welcome
from this quarter but I wouldn't expect much change from it.

RANDFONTEIN ESTATES GOLD MNG ( RNDEY )

As someone who knows of and is aware of specific fundamentals, but does not necessarily know the why's of these fundamentals, could one of the stock & bond analysts/traders try and explain something I've noticed today?

Last October when the Dow was tanking, bonds soared. People were taking their money out of stocks and buying 30 year bonds as what was called a flight to quality. What is the difference this time? What in the economic picture is different from last October. Or, is it not economics but politics that is the cause this time? As always, thank you all in advance!

Have appreciated your comments ( and attitude ) for some time now. Pray-tell, what is the origin of your monicker? Danke.
LEE

This changing the currency every few years that the Treasury Department pulls on us is BS. Look at a dollar bill or a coin from before 1964. This government does not have the nuts to make a better currency. Like every thing else, our currency has been dumbed down. Have you seen the new $50 and $100 bills? They're a F* ing joke. Thanks -- Auric

After Bre-x, CB-x, Swiss-x, and all the other x's, the +'s
for gold will will win. It's been one hell of a war!

The Japanese are probably behind the bond thrashing today.

Thank you for Randfontein's symbol RNDEY. I tried it but the Schwab web doesn't recognize it. How does one buy Randfontein is mistery to me!

Thanks again.

http://www.quicken.com/investments/quotex/?symbol=rndey&B1=Get+Quote

Selby,

I am not advocating buy the dips; but, if you look at the market Tick, you will find it rose to +500 within the past hour. This clearly indicates a major reversal in the so-called "slaughter." It represents a classic buy the dips action that will stabalize the "collapse."

One reason why the SNB might talk GOLD down is that they want more traders to be stuck with their short GOLD position while helping their BIS and JAPANESE friends accumulate a bigger long position which could soon amount to a squeeze in the GOLD market.
I have been here at KITCO for a relatively short period but it seems the family can be labelled with the following categories
1 ) short term traders
a ) with an undelying bull sentiment but have the nerves to short in overbought markets
b ) no underlying sentiment
c ) bearish GOLD
2 ) long term GOLD bulls to afraid to miss the big TSUNAMI to ever sell it
I belong to the latter for GOLD only but spend my day being a short or medium term player in all other underlyings.
Enjoy your life.
F* deserves our respect for his long term comitment to wage war on the pundits who belong to the GOLD IS DEAD conspiration.

http://www.secapl.com/secapl/quoteserver/search.html

In october the sell off in stocks generated a fly to quality in the bonds.
Today , the sell off in bonds is what triggered the sell off in stocks.

...And now the PPT will give CNBC another chance to say for the umpteenth time: "the market was down ______ points earlier today, yet managed to trim it's losses to ______ points. All is well. Keep shoveling it in to the old 401K folks! Happy happy joy joy!"

Coincidentally, this past weekend I happened to acquire several of those new US $50 bills ( in a poker game ) and, for a moment, I actually thought I was being scammed. VERY similar to monopoly game bills. The "new and improved" design is purportedly for the purpose of deterring counterfeits? These bills are even simpler than their predecessors, which were no great feat to duplicate. My son, who attends Columbia University, was friends with one of the students there who was busted last year for conterfeiting about $100,000 worth of $20's over the course of several months, and they did it on an office copier in the school's science department. And those guys were REAL PROS.

Apparently, you too were made as nauseous, by the transparently self serving insincerity in *F word's 13:44 post, as I was.

In spite of his obviously disinegnous motives however, his post does indeed speak volumes in it's glaring intentioanl abscence, of the true market insiders that reside here. Realistic, DA, and yourself come to mind... Oldman and others who are genuine major players are also noticably absent. It has become increasingly obvious that this fellow is a blowhard with little or no actual investment monies ( thus his disdain for "traders" who might actually have genuine KNOWledge! )

While I've bailed from adressing the person directly anymore, since his responses are so monolithically devoid of thoughtful balance, I do find it ironic, that those who could contribute some of the most valuable information for Gold investors, are the same folks that the *F fellow holds in contempt.

I can only repeat.... no matter what our investment strategy may be ( or life strategy for that matter ) ...if we are unable to weigh both/all sides and all information when wrestling with the complexities of issues like the economy and investments, we will be doomed to follow such Messianic charlatans into the abyss, as the ignorant sheep who we see derided here so often. ( Stock sheep of course......just no such THING as a Gold Bug sheep! )

Balance....balance....too much of anything leads us away from the truth, yes? Now, whither Platinum? A response to economic bad news?

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980428/world/world1.html

http://www.stockmaster.com/wc/form/P1?template=sm/chart&Symbol=RNDEY

ForkLift: thanks for the site

Lord Disney: glad to see people are starting to addressing you with Lord.
It will take some time, but they will finally get used to it.

So, If I double on RANGY which is RandGold, am I indirectly into Randfontein ( RNDEY ) , or I need to buy RNDEY and forget about RANGY.
Lord, please advise the godfather. Thanks.

Voyeur Professor: If the dipsters are buying big time already, and we are on a full rebound, that would be about the most short term bullish market news one could have - another 'V' formation? I doubt that however, and expect this one to go for several more days. Then I think we will have a continuation of our 'Tulip Mania' rally. Just read some more of JK Galbraith's book about 1929 -- the economic slump before the market dwonturn, the 'flight to safety' in US markets, merger mania, and 'trust fund mania' where the name of the game was pyramiding with trusts of trusts. Since we don't have all of this and the rate of market raise ( slope ) is still less that the final blowoff of 1929, I think we still have some mania to go. If so, our gold bug Tsunami is just beginning, and today may be just the sendoff needed. Will be interesting to see which comes back first -- equities or precious metals equities.

Did you notice that the Mexican indices went down about 5% so far today? I think the South American markets are much more vulnerable than the US markets. But much of foreign US investment is in South America. And -- we have the delayed crunch from all of those derivatives trades going haywire every time the markets 'twitch'. Hope all is well for you.

We need a site strictly dedicated to SA golds, with graphs, company info and all pertinent information. Our SA friends have a much greater advantage when they by NA golds. Whatever their hearts desire is available on the net,
but ... do they buy NA golds?

Re. Your Sat. 4/25/98 15:16 graph and explanation --

Excellent work! I notice a crossover around June-July '97 -- based on ( I'm assuming ) the arbitrary graph start date of Jan. '96 -- a crossover coinciding with the beginning of this recent leg of the Asian crisis.

Question -- Have you done such Dow/Gold charting going back far enough so that such crossovers are not rendered arbitrarily? If so, what significance, if any, have the crossovers held? And what have the ( positive/negative ) directions of travel meant, if anything?

Ted Happy Moving ---Stay a Vegetarian Nothing like fresh food ---fresh air and good exercise to keep you on top But dont spin to fast ---Best Luck --Keep in touch The Internet is Everywhere.

Ya saying Gold is a better value now than paper currency? Much prettier too, eh?

Bonds, stocks, metals, all falling at once? Would it be any surprise to see bloated money market fund numbers this week?

...when she won her academy award,

"You like me, you really like me."

Thanks.

F*

SEQUIN ( @ Staddler ) ID#25171:
In october the sell off in stocks generated a fly to quality in the bonds.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Not to mention the freefall in Asian currencies having
entered ice cream in the hot sun mode. Treasuries took off
like a scalded cat. Market meltdowns one thing, money meltdowns
entirely another.

I wasn't referring to the markets but the local commentators. I am continually amazed at the need to pigeon hole posters into either bulls or bears. I just want to know where gold is going next. I think there is a bias to see always up --or down and to ignore the important information---which way next.

On February 25 you posted regarding exchanging bullion for bullion coins on an ask to ask basis, at no additional cost. Could you explain further? Can this be employed in exercising delivery on futures contracts?

Any education appreciated.

Tom

Straddler ( 15:33 ) You make a good point. Bonds were indeed soaring last October when the U.S. market took its short-lived bath. Not this time. The difference lies in rate expectations. There has been a building crescendo over the past couple of weeks about the possible necessity to raise rates by various Fed governors. In October, no one expected rates to rise as the U.S. investment community was just becoming aware of the Asian crisis.

What's the difference between a possible market top and a correction? Simple, Dow down 151 - Gold down $3.00 on soaring interest rates. Back in November/December, the Dow was recovering on falling yields while Gold was falling below $300. Now, the Dow is falling on soaring yields while Gold is down too, but after having established a solid technical bottom.

PSGQF Traded on Canadian Exchange
3:52PM
0.59 / share +0.04 +7.27% not bad for a down day 84,900 has some volume

Such A Deal!

HighRise

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 27
-- TOTALS
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 89,213,135 + 429,099 troy ounces
Copper 108,771 - 380 short tons

for myrmidon
and randfontein is randfontein and
never the twain shall meet ...
and buying randgold doesnt get you
anywhere near randfontein no matter
how indirectly.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 16:20
Selby ( Voyeur Professor ) ID#286230:

[....... I just want to know where gold is going next........]

Me too!

for 2bro2b
Did he like gold ??? you
know he was in the insurance
business ..

So a close under 310 Spot doesn't scare you off here?

Spoos down 19.00 on Globex now

farfel
I believe that without you those
two guys would cease to exist ..
They are holograms .. you are the
lazer...

The source of funds feeding this frenzy has not changed. I look for the market to peak however mid-May with gold once more below $300 about then and for the ( LAST ) time in our lifetime. Income tax refunds going into mutual funds will end in late May. Vacations in June will begin to deminish cash flow into mutual funds. If the 30yr. bond rates hit 6.25 the market will take serious notice.
A strange thing. After the last three Fed meetings with no increase announced the dow fell. I believe after the next few days the bull will ignore interest rate worries and blast off again, till mid-May that is. JUST MY OPINION.
I plan yet to buy 100K more shares of RANGY at $1.25 on or before May 15th.

How did gold stocks do prior and after the crash of '29? Thanks

Perhaps you should call Disney "Lord of the flies" as he hovers over his BSfontein. Lord? Sheeeesh--what sheeple these people be!

Insurance, yup and heckuva poet for much that followed.
Sold dd, harmony at open, still got rangold.

JTF: I thought I remembered you posting a question about how the central banks make money off of the bond sales or something to that general extent. I was just curious if this might be the answer, do the banks reserves need to be in actual cash, or can they be in government bonds? In other words, for every 90$ they loan out, does the 10$ reserve have to be in dollars, or in treasury bonds earning 5%?



Also, with regards to why money isn't coming out of the paper markets and into gold, could it be a side effect of 401K and IRAs? If I remember, this is a lot of the money going into the market, and it's difficult to turn it into gold without pulling it out of the sheltered account and taking a big tax hit.



Just wondering, 'cause I have no idea.

Selby,
You make a sound point regarding our obligation as posters to avoid sophistry. Sound gold analysis will avoid both cheerleading for bullion and engaging in the demonizing of this bull market. As a consequence, I find it irritating that, despite my own considerable gold position, so much of Kitco posting has a direct relation to the morning line on gold. Gold up, Kitco enthusiasm becomes hyperbolic; gold down, Kitcoites predict gold at $250. So, I agree that the important contributions made here come from posters who, like JTF, measure their judgment and enthusiasm, keeping a close eye to realities.

JTF,
I agree that Latin America and even Mexico may show signs of market weakness. As important trading partners with the U.S., that weakness may have a negative impact on this bull. But Europe also showed some alarming weakness today, witness Italys 6.5% drop! I wonder if todays action merely represents profit taking on bourses that have rocketed even higher than the U. S., or is such weakness to prove troublesome for the Euro planners? What do you think?

Regarding the new $100 and $50 bills mentioned by several posters. I find these examples of the engravers "art" extremely offensive to my artistic sensibilities. They are, without a doubt, the UGLIEST, most tasteless specimens ever conceived by the US government and perhaps by ANY government in the history of paper money, ugh, debt instruments.

They are SO tasteless, it has occurred to me that these designs were INTENTIONAL so as to discourage potential hoarders of US currency against the time that economic turmoil and fiscal chaos might prevail. WHO would want to accumulate large quantities of these MONSTROSITIES? Then I realized that even the USG couldn't be that dumb.

The only plausable explanation that I can come up with is that the new bills are but one more example of our government's FLIGHT FROM QUALITY. If that is the real reason, I can only judge that they ( the government ) did themselves proud! From the grotesque to the sublime...GO GOLD!

SWP1 So are you a bull- a bear -or just want to know where gold is going?

CNBC - next hour show. For those looking for one.

HighRise

Randfonteins, BSfonteins, Crapfonteins,

I don't care if I can make money, that is why I'll be buying more !!

My NA golds need a blood transfusion, specially after today's holocaust.
I thank the LORD ( Disney ) for his advice.

The new bills are only superficially easy to duplicate, and contain many hidden features to foil would-be counterfeiters, such as watermarks, hidden magnetic treads, micro-printing, etc. For you California residents, you might want to drop in on Flex Products in Santa Rosa. Flex makes the multi-color refractive base for the US Treasury seal inks, in a process that would NOT be hard to duplicate.

Gold shares were not immune during the crash of 29. And cash provided better security than physical Gold, which was at an artificially fixed dollar price.

Perhaps more relevant to today's conditions, the crash of 1987, also saw major tanking of Gold shares. One of the worst stock losses I've ever had in fact, was in Homestake Mining, in the 87 crash. It fell about 25% when I sold. And Homestake was the "Blue Chip" of North American Gold shares....

New York-April 27-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,204 0 0 0 2,202 477,406
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
169,237 0 0 0 -2,202 167,035
COMBINED TOTAL
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

Silver


TOTAL REGISTERED
-1,030,870 14,813 32,523,174
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
1,459,969 -14,813 56,689,961
COMBINED TOTAL
429,099 0 89,213,135


New York-April 27-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 37,000
Silver 29,000
H.G. Copper 25,000


Remember, they can move the prices by playing with the paper, BUT as long as we keep buying and taking delivery gold will continue to become scarce.

Thanks. When we are close to the top of "positive" segment on chart, Dow and Gold move mostly in same direction - that is what we have now. Last time before it was in October 1997 around mini-crash. Positive correlation between Dow and Gold was bit higher then.
You are right - it is better to build this chart for longer period. I shall make it and come back with new chart and more answers in 1 -2 days. Have to leave now.

There is a major problem with durability. The face in the centre wears out very fast in comparison to the old bills. It will be necessary to recycle them at a much higher rate to avoid the defacement of Franklin's face.

Are the Swiss giving up their indepence?

They are major international currency traders and when the EURO is in full bloom 11 potential currencies will have gone the way of dinarsour.

Could it be that they fear losing their status as the international bankers, international banker?

Could the bank merger craze going on world wide be pressuring them to become a part of the "Order of Bullsh*t"?

Truthfully though, if eleven less currencies are available for trade some brave souls may consider gold. IWIHTA

FWN: 114446 GMT


NYMEX Establishes New Margin Requirements on
Palladium Spreads



New York-April 27-FWN--THE NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
has established new palladium spread margin rates as a
result of the margin increases on the April, May and June
1998 contracts that will take effect at the close of
business today.
For clearing members, the rates will be $11,000 if the
spot month is involved in the spread; $10,800 for a spread
involving the second or third month; and $300 for back-month
spreads.
Member rates will be $12,100 for a spot-month spread;
$11,880 for a spread including the second or third month;
and $330 for back-month spreads.
Customer rates will be $14,850 for a spot-month spread;
$14,580 for a spread which includes the second or third
month; and $405 for back-month spreads.

robnoel__A - in honour of your 14:35 post -

Redemption Song - Bob Marley / "Uprising" album ( 1980 )
http://www.danbbs.dk/~free_i/songs/rsong19.htm
http://www.ece.mcgill.ca/~rdpapp/

The 2nd link links the story with the following verse:

"...Red for the blood, that flowed like a river,
Green for the land, Africa,
Yellow for the gold that they stole,
Black for the people, they took it from..."

- Steel Pulse ( Marcus Garvey )
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/mgpp/lifeintr.htm
http://afrikan.net/fnx452.html

Let them not steal gold from the people, black or white, again.

Studio, please E--MAIL me when gold hits 325. I have walked in the footsteps of giants till the soles of my shoes are worn out. If gold goes to 250, I guess I will still be hanging on.

Isure@aol.com

Do you know of any country in the world other than the U.S.A.
that prints there money all the same colour.
It is much easier to look for colour than numbers while under the influance.

Tom

Dow/Gold R = 28.82; XAU/AU R =.279; Gold/Silver = 50.06

Highlights:

Gold .."both the short and long term trends remain favorable."
Out of about 100 "favorable" and "unfavorable" stock listings,
there were six precious metals under favorable ( none under unfavorable ) .
The six were ASA, ASL, BMG, FCX, HM, & PDG.
All, every one of them, for his fund "buy" recommendations were
precious metals funds! Symbols are FSAGX, BBGIX, FEMKX, LEXMX,
and USERX.
( Recommended bid prices are included as part of Stan's service. )

Appreciate the takes on the stock & bond market intermarket workings. Again, excuse my ignorance because it isn't my area that I spend much time in, but could I make the following inference:

That when the stock market initiates a decline for some other reason besides rising interest rates, that results in a flight to quality to bonds, that the stock market is probably in a correction because interest rates are actually falling. This should be bullish for the stock market longer term, due to rates actually falling. This intimates that the stock fall is due to outside news and not a change in fundamentals.

That when the bond market tanks and thus CAUSES the stock market to tank, this might indicate a top as opposed to a correction, since interest rates are rising and making stocks less attractive long term.

I realize these are generalities since a TOP in one time frame could actually be a CORRECTION in a longer time frame. But I have always had a problem understanding what leads what ( ie do bonds lead stocks or do stocks lead bonds ) . The above deductions/inferences lead me to think that bonds are more important to the future path of the stock market, then stocks are to the future path of the bond market. Thanks again in advance for any comments.

I took a hit in 87 also;
BUT, today 04/27/98, unlike 87, the Gold mining shares have already been beat down last fall during that decline, we are well into this one - its just that no one has told the baby boomers , and they just keep dumping their cash into the Markets.

These crashes move around the globe; Europe, USA 1929, Japan 1990, and IMHO, if you are in the US in 1997, this is like Germany in 1937.

Similar monetizing of debt and printing of currency etc. etc.

We will know, for sure, one of these days.

HighRise

I'm probably a AU chicken. While I sold some ABX last week, I bought some RANGY today. I'm beginning to think that you may be afflicted with a terminal case of linear thinking.

"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."



George Bernard Shaw

He says he's getting an "illegal character" message when he tries to post. Can anyone help him out?

Tunnel vision in these mkts can be very dangerous to one's financial health.

Sorry rushing. Remember I get this information from futuresorce. I can't post until they release it. Today they released it early.

As you can see I made a mistake gold eligible stocks did drop today But silver eligible stocks ROSE.

BBML

Curious to know Weinstein's suggested bid prices. Especially, numbers for BMG and ASL. Can you quote them?

"I had invested well and the market floated my boat right up along with all the rest. Retirement was going to come early and be very good to me."

"Everything was going just fine. Well, the Market was getting a bit choppy. I moved into bonds .. more than I had ever done. Was hoping that I wouldn't miss anything. Had 50/50 in bonds and equities."

"Then everyone started talking about 'year 2000' and how maybe we might have problems with banks and stuff. I don't know when everybody started taking it more seriously than just chat. But people were kind of nervous a little bit. But it wasn't anything you felt like you needed to do anything about so we we just joked about it."

"After a while someone said they thought that it might be a good idea to have some cash in a safety deposit box. And then I remember a TV news shot of some people at a bank in the midwest, I think it was Iowa. Someone was interviewed and they said they were taking their money out because there wasn't enough cash and they at least wanted to have something if things didn't turn out so well."

"We all laughed about that the next day. These yokels were going to 'stuff their mattresses' and all that. Most of us dismissed it as being paranoid and stupid. Well, about a week later I went down to the bank to see about an extension on the Home Equity loan, to bump it up. It seemed like the teller line was moving pretty slowly and I cracked a joke to the loan officer about people 'taking their money out'. She kind of laughed but not really laughed, you know? Kind of like 'yah. ha. ha.', but not like it was funny."

"So the next day I called Jim Cramer, a guy I know over at Citibank, and asked what he was seeing at the bank these days. Jim was a real nice guy and he'd tell you if you needed to know anything. Just a real decent kind of guy. Well, he kind of hemmed and hawwed a bit and said that maybe it would be good to meet after work for a drink. And I said, 'OK. Great, we can catch up on things'."

"He seemed to be under a little stress and I asked him what was wrong. He said that there were a lot of things going on at work. We talked about this and that. Finally I asked him if he thought people were getting a little to worked up about things. He said they were doing OK. That if somebody wanted cash they could pretty much do that. He said there seemed to be some folks who were concerned. The funny thing was that I never asked him about cash, but that was what he started talking about first."


"Then one night on TV they announced the Executive Order that put a limit on people withdrawing cash from banks. It was a real shock, but kind of not a shock. Only I couldn't really get to sleep that night. I kept thinking, 'Why would they put a limit on cash withdrawls if there was not a really big problem'. At work the next day people seemed kind of waiting to talk about it, kind of tense. Somebody said that maybe the people in Iowa weren't so stupid after all. My head was buzzing and it was to hard to concentrate so I took a sick day and went home."

"On the way home I remember looking at all the bank branches. The parking lots were full and lines of people were out the doors. Then I realized that there was no way I was going to get even 5% of what I had in "the system" out. I almost went off the road. I felt sick to death like I had food poisoning."

"After that things just kind of blurred together. I got a couple of thousand out but that was all. After that the banks just didn't have any cash left. No one was using cash, just hoarding it. Then the government started putting out more orders. I couldn't believe it was real. Like a really bad dream you never seem to be able to wake up from."

quotations from:

Recollections of the Crash: After the Year 2000
Pub. August, 2047
Little, Brown - a Division of Yan Ling Publishing

Expected: The drop in the DOW.
Expected: BOJ to sell T-bonds/bills: bonds down, interest rates up.
Expected: US$ drop against European currencies. ( General exception is the Pound which always moves with the US$ ) .
What was completely unexpected in this move of the European currencies was the behaviour of the Swiss Franc which appreciated against the US$ three times as much as the DM. ( Isn't this what the president of the Swiss CB, Hans Meyer, wanted to avoid? How does that fit into the talk of Swiss gold sales? )

Unexpected was for gold to move with the DOW down.
I think gold was leading the XAU down. So this move falls in the unexpected gold behaviour. Any explanation? It doesn't look like a logical "market" move. Looks more like intervention. But by whom? And how? It is unthinkable what would happen if gold/XAU went up and DOW down simultaneously. That would cause a panic move from DOW stocks to XAU stocks and gold. Foreseeable was that the DOW would drop. Even the mainstream press wrote about this possibility. Therefore, if somebody wants to avoid the panic move from XAU stocks to DOW stocks, this somebody has to do everything to push the gold price down. This was foreseeable for this somebody.

The above is just an attempt to bring a certain systematic approach into the interpretation of todays market behaviour which was extremely interesting.

I do not expect the DOW to recover if BOJ continues to sell T-notes.
Therefore, because this activity is connected to the necessity for our unknown "somebody" to keep the gold price down, it will be very exciting to observe for the rest of the week how the gold price will be tamed.
Remember: May 2nd, 3rd the ECU meeting will happen when they decide upon the gold backing of the EURO. That's Saturday/Sunday.

I all of these surprises are not exciting like he'avan I don't know anymore what else the financial markets could offer to get our full attention.

Alberich the Dwarf

Beautifully put! Now if only the bills could match the grandeur of your justifiable contempt! The bills' reverses are a hasty and heinous afterthought. "Flight from quality"... was precious!!!

Not to worry, precious metals are experiencing a rediscovery. We wait for those who sold their stocks today to remember the resilience of gold. Time is on our side. - c

As Groucho Marx would say "Then don't use that character!"

The system will not accept some html characters like the 'greater than' or 'less than' arrows; this may be the illegal character you are running into.

It was just for the practice. Never sold shares in
a gold mining company before, having never before owned
any.

Illegal characters around here? I thought this was a forum for NEWS!

For BMG, the recommendations were buy on pullbacks near 7, set
stop at 5 7/8.

ASL suggestions were buy near pullback around 10, set trading
stop at 9 1/2, investing stop at 8 7/8.

You're welcome.

L.Long: Just how old did you say you were? Just kidding. Heinlein is one of my favorite authors - remember Irene and DeDe?

Seriously, you raise an important point -- 401k and 403b funds are limited in what investments are allowed. 'Risky' investments such as physical gold, and foreign currencies are not allowed. That is allowed with IRA's, but I suspect that fewer retirement assets are in this form. Also 401k and 403b investment options are limited in scope, and gold funds as investment may not be accessible. One big notable exception is the Fidelity funds group, where gold fund purchases are possible even with 403b's and 401k's. I wouldn't worry too much though, when there is a big 'rush to the exits' to buy gold/gold equities, the money will be there.

With regard to your question about dollars and treasuries, I offer that question to more knowledgable types, such as Donald, DA or SDRer. Suffice it to say that treasuries offer interest payments, not dollars, so I would expect most US $ investments are in the form of treasuries of some kind. The dollar-yen carry or the dollar-gold carry is optimal when the dollar is rising with high interest treasury yields, purchased with borrowed Yen or gold. The idea is that both the Yen and gold have low interest loan rates, so borrowing then to buy dollars ( treasuries ) is especially attractive. Even better if the dollar is rising, and the Yen, gold falling. When these 'carry' trades unravel due to a dropping dollar or high Yen/gold interest rates, there will be a flood of US treasuries on the markets that will either cause US interest rates to skyrocket, or cause the Fed to buy the treasuries back. In the latter, the inflation may be deferred if the Fed decides to roll the dollars over into our national debt -- very popular this year.

Hope that helps.

And of course, that would be a *domestic* publisher now, right?

Your post was the most succinct commentary yet regarding today's events. It is becoming more apparent than ever that in today's financial marketplace there are few remaining constants. What machinations must it have taken for that "somebody" to keep today's gold down? Is the stage being set for this weekend's ECU meeting . . . and to what end?

Few years ago Russian government did this trick
to Russian citizens. Citizens were very unhappy.
Accounts were frozen, and people could not withdraw
cash for several months. It ended in some time, but
I recall a lot of problems for people unable to
access their own money.

.... "The next thing I heard on the radio was that the government made it illegal to have more than $500 in your possesion. I kind of felt sorry for those who had planned a trip to Vegas, or overseas. I contemplated for a while and decided that I must conform to the new government regulation, so I took all the cash I had, about $2,500, gave $500 to my wife and went running to the bank to give back the $2,000 for some other poor soul to have. I like to share tings with my fellow citizens so this order did not bother me that much. What really bothered me was the long wait in line..."

Personally, I think they will be spooked when the correction/crash arrives. I don't think they have the stomach to endure it.

I'm a gold st er bull, trying to time a further purchase, and I have my eyes open to see if I should/could trade out and back in of my favourite stock. I place my bets for now on the SA ADR'S. When I see a move to $360 I plan on converting some to physical, at $400 more of same.

Hopeful: LGB is right that gold shares were a poor investment during the great crash. I have manually plotted this by using the Times ( Canadian ) gold and silver index. As I recall gold stocks dropped about 30% from June 1929 to Oct 1929, rose briefly about 40% after the crash, and then languished intil about 1932 ( 1933? ) when FDR raised the price of gold. Then gold stocks were stellar until the 40's. Dividends of 5 and 6 dollars a share for years, also.

This time it will be different as the US dollar/gold price is not fixed. My guess is that gold stocks will rally much more quickly after the crash. You may want to look at the most recent quarterly report ( Feb 1998 ) at the World Gold Council site -- namely Indonesia gold in 1997. The price of gold has doubled in the last year there. Even Singapore has a marked increase in the price of gold ( +40% ) , and their economy/currency was thought to be rather strong. That will give you a good idea of what will happen here after a crash.

Hope this helps -- all from memory -- graphs at home.

Interest rate hike in May 98 ?

My oh my, just about time time the EURO's gold backing will be announced.

Looks like the major correction for the DOW is due in May ???

Weeks ago, we discussed the IT folks working in China being
a bit upset because China INSISTED on building the banking
link-ups herself, and further, NOT allowing them to follow a link-back to the net through 'normal' channels; we bounced around whether or no this was China's way of isolating her bank's computers from international
Y2K problems.

I brought it up in a brain-trusting session, and the technical head
said whether it worked would depend on China's mainframe situation.

Reading through Dr. North, discussing global government Y2K problems...
he states, "but not Red China, which never had the money to buy mainframes."

Now, let's think about BIS's new HK operation...Has BIS found a way,
with Chinese accomodation, to safeguard it's [BIS] computers? And, if so,
what was the quid pro quo?

Myrmidon@Allen.Well.done!

Maybe a dial-up connection to your ISP using a secondary phone number?

The People's Republic of China is even less transparent with respect to their finances than the U.S. Federal Reserve. The whole thing looks like a gigantic Bre-X!

Alberich, the rhetoric here re Gold's "threatening" potential to the DOW and T-bonds, etc. may be having undue influence. You said;

"t is
unthinkable what would happen if gold/XAU went up and DOW down simultaneously. That would cause a panic
move from DOW stocks to XAU stocks and gold. Foreseeable was that the DOW would drop. Even the
mainstream press wrote about this possibility. Therefore, if somebody wants to avoid the panic move from XAU
stocks to DOW stocks, this somebody has to do everything to push the gold price down. This was foreseeable for
this somebody. "


Hmmmmm Alberich....are we not forgetting here, that Gold and PM trading volume in general, is a MINISCULE percentage of Bond, currency, and Equity trading, such that it's effect on the broader markets has very little influence on investor psychology? Folks here tend to become so "PM centric" that they start believing that Gold's activity is central in the world economy. Tain't so..... an influence..... but a small one in this day of the almighty flow of capital from place to place, Equity to currency, currency to Bond, bond to Equity, Equity to money market, etc etc at volumes hundreds of times that of Gold transaction volume.

In the day of the 401K plan, a new era of understanding by the FED re liquidity, modern technological instruments and tools of economic flexibility.... Gold is far less central to modern thought than one might gather by reading this board. This will change only a little, when the next crises erupts.

I was not aware that time travel was already discovered by the year 2047. Were they able to send humans back in time or only information. What does the book say about the Third aand Fourth World Wars? Did they mention clone? Anyway, funny you should post that article - I just returned from my bank after withdrawing yet another $2000 from my account. It doesn't seem like a very large request to me, but every time I do it the teller has to scramble around for 10 to 20 minutes just to accumulate that much cash. It's kind of fun watching the havoc - makes me feel rich! Then I go home and before I put it in my safe with the rest of the loot, I compare it to the comparable amount of gold ( six ounces ) . Then I "think long and hard" about their comparative value. This really brings the big picture to light. Yep, I'll be outta the banks pretty soon - looking forward to personally keeping track of my own money. My recollection of Y2k will be a little different than the one you posted.
- c

Fair enough. Now, why don't the Gov'ts/Miners/Traders take their foot off Gold's windpipe?

what I learned in law school. It wasn't a pretty picture. The history of English judges shows that they were more concerned with land and how it was sold, given away, and inherited than about anything else. This is how "property" law developed and this is the basis for American property law. And they weren't always interested in what was "right" or "fair". Too often they were concerned with short-term expediency and long-term political favor.

Your use of the term "scientific" is different than mine. Having a chemistry/physics background, I define scientific "truth" as being repeatable and verifiable through experimentation, no matter the locale ( at least on planet Earth ) . Truly gravity is uniformly the same on the surface of this planet. The same cannot be said of law, thus the term "scientific" cannot, in my vernacular, be applied to it.

On such matters we will have to disagree. Thanks for your input.

May you see green instead of purple on the morrow close.

Tom

Well, as per my various posts last week, I felt very strongly that there would be some impending, notable problems with the DOW, NASDAQ, and BOND markets. Moreover, thanks to a friend out East, I also warned that the Wall Street Spin Control would do whatever was necessary to prevent precious metals becoming the flight to quality/safety during this turmoil ( The rumor I heard concerned imminent media spin announcing a diminution in the percentage of gold reserves support for the EURO. Anyway, I am certain that if the stock and bond markets continue to weaken dramatically while gold begins to show strength again, then the forementioned spin ( or some variation thereof ) will be the next media scam story trotted out on behalf of Wall Street aka gold shorts ) .

So today, we witnessed the prominent media reports headlining the Swiss National Bank's intentions to sell half their reserves. Moreover, today, Reuters declared that Switzerland would sell 1000 tons of gold to finance a Holocaust Fund. These were the bold print headlines.

However, what was NOT emphasized in these various media announcements were the following facts:

1 ) Switzerland must hold a referendum for the general public to decide whether or not the SNB will be allowed to sell half its gold reserves. This referendum is NOT expected to be held earlier than 1999.

2 ) Switzerland must NEGOTIATE ( repeat...NEGOTIATE ) with the World Jewish Congress in order to determine what amount of gold reserves will be sold to fund a Holocaust Fund. On the one hand, there are some very powerful Swiss establishment members who do not wish to sell any significant amounts of gold or provide any significant monies toward such a fund ( NOT mentioned in any of today's media announcements ) ...moreover, the WJC has NOT received universal Jewish support in terms of its demands upon the Swiss. There are several prominent Jewish leaders who feel the Swiss should pay no more than a token penalty otherwise anything more severe will only lead to extreme ill will from the Swiss toward the Jews ( again, NOT mentioned in any of today's media announcements ) . Negotiations are expected to continue for at least another year and there is a general feeling emanating from the American Jewish media that, when the Swiss & WJC reach a compromise, then gold sales will not exceed 200-300 tons at maximum... a figure hardly worth noting.

3 ) But the really good news is that the Swiss will most likely arrange a private deal with another CB ( in keeping with recently announced CB gold sales ) such that none of the gold sale ever hits the street market.

4 ) Even better news concerns the question as to just how much of the Swiss gold reserves are on loan at this moment. In other words, are the Swiss even in a position to sell a mere 300 tons of gold without calling
in gold loans and potentially bringing down a a gold leasing "House of Cards?" Essentially, this points to the salient question: is there truly a gold glut in this world or a gold dearth? Stay tuned for further developments over this next week.

Despite the forementioned realities, Wall Street played up the Swiss announcements in order to preclude today's bonds and equities flight monies from heading into precious metals. So, today's asset of choice happened to be cash in the form of the U.S. Dollar.

However, there is only one problem with steering investors toward cash...namely, cash is not an investment. It pays no interest and certainly, where the U.S. buck is concerned, in the face of impending currency wars, the odds favor depreciation against other currencies before any further appreciation. So, the prinipal value of the Dollar ( on a global relativistic basis ) is more likely to decline than appreciate. Furthermore, one would expect that, if on a sustained basis, neither the stock, bonds, or precious metals markets are performing well, then cash will continue to move rapidly into overheating real estate markets. The ultimate result...inflation in a very bad way. Good for gold, yes?

Anyway, despite "the great Swiss Whopper" ( tired and hackneyed as it has become ) , gold fell a mere $3.00 on relatively light volume ( compare that to Oct.'97's dramatic gold drop upon heavy volume upon the announcment of essentially the same Swiss story ) . What it proves is that, increasingly, informed goldbugs know the disingenuous motives behind such scare scams and only the uninformed ( or generally nervous types ) are reacting negatively to them. Increasingly, goldbugs realize that, when the great U.S. asset triumvirate are dropping simultaneously, i.e., the U.S. dollar, general industrial equities, and bonds, then the only place to put investment monies will be either precious metals, real estate, or cash. Of these three assets, precious metals will be the asset of choice owing to its liquidity and ability to generate profit.

If one excludes today's extraordinary Swiss Whopper Scam, then I contend that the XAU would have maintained its negative beta to general industrial equities. In other words, both gold and gold XAU stocks ( falling a mere 3.5 ) were surprisingly strong in the face of such an announcment.

Analogous to the Swiss announcement, just imagine if today, Japan had announced it planned to sell half of its U.S. treasuries. Do you think the DOW and NASDAQ would fall a mere 150 points? No way...more like 4000 points or better.

The problem Wall Street faces is that, as the malaise in the dollar, bonds and equities continue, it cannot continue to trot out daily scare stories about gold sales and alarmist EURO speculations and other such tired nonsense without turning these scare tactics into concrete realities. To put it simply, Wall Street cannot continue to cry, "Wolf!" ad infinitum without a point being reached where gold investors will simply say, "BULLSH_T, I AIN'T AFRAID OF THE BIG BAD WOLF ANYMORE!"

Precious Metals Relativity Index -- the only thing I would note is that the previously, chronically explosive Palladium was fairly weak today. So, gold was not an orphan in trouble today. If gold had been the only PM experiencing weakness amidst tumbling bonds and equities markets, then that would NOT have been a good sign. Again, I cannot help but reiterate that we will soon ( very soon ) watch gold match ( and outperform ) the stellar performance of palladium.

KITCO barometer -- very little fear overall and a good deal of acceptance of the current Wall Street/mainstream media status quo. I would best term the goldbugs'general reaction as a cross between blase and bewilderment. Goldbugs know how Wall STreet works and realize now that the incipient gold bull will be fought tooth and nail by its many foes ( just witness the return of the gold scaremongers, who despite previous "promises" to leave us alone, are back ensuring that "us poor schmoes" are properly enlightened as to gold's inevitable decline ) . At the same time, I think many goldbugs are perplexed as to why the average Wall Street investor does not quite "get it" yet. I think the majority of goldbugs realize that a fundamental breakthrough will cause this gold market to spin on a dime and enter its only mode of verticality. The only question: when?

Once again, I remain EXTREMELY BULLISH on GOLD. I KNOW a short squeeze is looming just around the corner. Oh, yes, I do.

Thanks.

F*

WHERE IS MIKE TO EXPLAIN THIS EXPERIENCE OF TODAY?

1 ) With left hand hold on to gonads.

2 ) With right hand pick up telephone;order more gold shares from broker.

3 ) Hang up telephone.

4 ) Keep left hand in place.

http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

GG! ( err, Go Gold! )

but BreaX is beginning to look like a template for the
world! {:- )


A.Goose@New.margin.requirements Good info Goose! Thanks.

I, for one, r e a l l y enjoyed the relative harmony that prevailed here for a two-week period. Now I see that the antagonists are at it again, drawing battle lines and launching salvos left and right.

I'm very, very dissapointed, and I gotta tell ya, I'm getting MAD AS HELL AND I AIN'T GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!!! Now you guys behave or I'll slap y'all sides the head till you do! YOU HEAR!?!?

HenryD ( unless, of course, you happen to be bigger than me .. in which case... ahh, GO GOLD!, and may The Bart be with you. )

This is not yet the beginning of the big stock bear.Not by any means. Just another correction -- this time induced by the Fed.

When the big bear reallty does begin gold will be surging or at least holding steady as stocks sink -- not joining the downhill run. Too gold and bond yields still are not high enough for stocks to go down on a sutained basis.

Equities and gold probably will both rally strongly after dipping for snother day or two. Stock market will not peak until gold is around $340-350 and bonds yields are considerably above 6%. Probably this summer.

today on the COMEX. This attack was timed to coincide with the decline
of the DOW, and designed to intercept the traditional rotation of funds
out of DOW and tech stocks as we finally enter the equities bear. I suspect that the US government in collusion with Wall Street, have perpetrated this manipulation.

The EURO CBs are also involved. It is in their interests to keep
gold as close to $US300 as possible until after May 1, when they supposedly announce the gold backing of the new EURO. The last time I
looked at gold 1 month lease rates they were down to 1.01% This can only
facilitate acquisition of ammunition by shorts. I fear we are in for a
bumpy ride until the end of the month. But when the CBs stop leasing,
the squeeze will be on! IMHO Take care.

If it is I you are calling for, to explain "things", I am flattered, but all I can point to is the Sun conjuncting my NYSE gold degree, 5 Taurus ( NYSE Venus ) today. You would think the Sun would be a beneficial aspect, but go figure. Last week's Mars conjunction was just not enough of a boost, which augers badly for AU short term. If we go below 306-307, we'll have to test 296. Let's hope support comes in there. Otherwise, we must get beyond 319-320 and up to 330 for goldbugs to continue happy. This bull is still a mucous covered calf at best, embryonic most likely. Give it time, give it time.

Not gonna be pretty.....
Apparently Gold is not yet being seriously considered as a safety vehicle by the throngs of profit hungry stock buyers. The beat goes on........

FarFlung -

Once again you post pabulum and mush. Less than 24 hours ago, you pooh poohed the thought of more CB sales. Now you write fluffy essays that are themselves the very portrait of "spin control".

I am reminded of a scene from "Jaws", when Quint says, "Proves one thing Mr. Hooper; Proves you college educated boys don't know enough to admit when you are wrong."

Your ( how many? 2? 3? ) Yale degrees? PHDs? Mr. Macro Econo Fellow? Proves that your lofty theories will help you little down here in the trenches. This is a grown up game we play here, for real money, and we play for keepsies. And the real money is being made by those that do EXACTLY opposite of what you recommend.

I'm still delivering gold for the lowest price in the country. Got any money? Or has it all disappeared with your "hackneyed" views?

The simple difference is plain to see. You are a ghost. You are a silly handle on and Internet forum. You post no e-mail, you hide behind your anonymity. You are nobody.

Everybody here knows who I am, where I work, and where I can be found.

We will let the markets and history choose the man remembered as the wiser.

I encourage everybody to read the Farfel Fellow's gold report @ 18:30 ( he will "report" on gold, but ignore those that are closest to the market, and believe himself right and true ) It fairy drips with irony. An essay composed entirely of spin control griping about spin control.

Keep it up Farboy, I have only just begun.

The gloves are off, and I call you out.

This is where it starts to get fun

PS

This posts breaks all etiquette rules and I would happily be thrown off this forum. But I will not be silent. This little ferret has had a field day at my expense and this will not stand. I will drag this pasty vampire out from under the crawlspace and out into the sun where the cleansing rays may burn away all that is bullshit and all that is Farfel.

PS2

This is hostility light. Don't crank up the steam F boy. Your own past posts are filled will boneheaded mistakes that even novices to these markets do not make. Your support here is drying up, perhaps a bit of the hair of the dog to erode it further? We will post them and have a good time, yes? If you choose this fight, I will do it in your own words. We have seen how embarrassing this can be with good buddy OLD GSC. Feel free to repost any of my priors. I stand by them all.

When you step out to fight, be prepared for the battle. And this battle is set.

OK

Silverhound is pushing me ( and that's ok ) so I went to the emphemeris so I could stick my neck out once again... mark your calendars boys n' girls for stock market action and gold reply around May 18, 19, 20. Mars conjuncts ( lines up with ) NYSE Sun, while transiting Mercury lines up with NYSE Venus, my gold degree. Also Jupiter conjuncts SSC's Sun at the same time, so silver should be energized then too. ( everything clear? ) Kitco Kwestion is: will it be good or bad for the PM's? Action for sure. Mark those calendars.

I enjoyed both of your books.....salud!

We have already lost most of our great posters on this forum and it would appear that we are trying to get rid of others. WHY? This is not a testosterone testing site.I would suggest that you read only those posters that appeal to you and leave the others for us. REST ASSURED THAT I AND OTHER WILL DO YOUR POSTS JUSTICE IF THEY ARE WORTHY AND IN THE PROCESS THANK YOU FOR THEM.

Welcome home my friend!

...are you feeling OK?

Thanks.

F*

I meant e-phemeris. Not "em-phemeris." Why didn't all you astrophysicists out there correct me? JTF? LBJ? I'm counting on you guys to hold my ankles when I start to float ....away.

Who are some of the "great posters" we have already lost at this forum, in your VHO, of course? ( I am not being provocative, honest, I just was very curious as to who you miss most ) .

You and "other"? Isn't he that guy what figures gold is already trading at 6 grand and we won't be able to buy any more of it after $360? I like that guy.

It's still possible to make money on gold...SHORT IT!
Gold will lose enough value soon, enough to make some good profits. Don't wait! ( Check out Kaplan's site )

do you really think you can make him shut up?? All the power to you, I have already tried and failed.
- c

Always glad to see you here.Do enlighten....
badger

Henryd -

You don't like it, go somewhere else. I have withstood a barrage of attacks and kept silent. These boys will quit the falsehoods, or I do not stop calling attention to them. All of them. Its actually kind of fun. Like when you are at the shooting gallery and you have one of the damn little mechanical quacking ducks in your crosshairs. Once you hit the first one, the rest are easy.

Who among you would take the abuse I have from these grubs?

For those that would, I have zero respect.

Decorum be damned, I will settle for nothing less than an apology.

Then, while my opinion of them will not change, I will not be so vocal about it.

That will be the result, or I will continue until banned from this forum.

It will get bloody.

OK

Nothing sways a man obsessed; nothing.

What a shame.
What a pity.
What a waste.

HenryD

Does anyone lend credibility to Farfel??

That is if my recollection about your past post re cancer is correct. Otherwise just ignore this post. Thanks gagnrad@hotmail.com

Last I heard from tol1, he was puttin' on his new 2oz platinum thumb ring, to match his other thumb ring made from 2 maple leafs. Lemme tell you, you wouldn' wanna get hit with that ring. You could join two water pipes with that sucker. And thumb sweat...wow. Could barely get my fish an' chips down sittin' acrost from dat guy. But he's magnetic, positively magnetic. Mus' be all the PM's on his person.

Clone -

Read my most rabid and ribald posts.

A spring breeze compared to the hurricane that awaits.

He has chased and dogged my heels like a bitch in heat.

He will now find how it feels.

I am the Avenger.

Applause for your prediction of 'DOW disaster within three days'.
It was a gutsy, timely, and correct call.

Hey, I got connectyions. Just got off the phone with Mills Lane. Said he's be here by 10:30 EST. Paid his plane fare. He says he'll waive the standing 8 count, and bell don't save ya, 'cept for the last round. Got plenny a vaseline an' q-tips, plus anm extra towel to throw in for whoever needs it. Shake hans' now, n' come out fightin' at the bell.

... as for me, I'll stay a bit longer. I can do that, Yes?

HenryD

PS: Oh, and may The Bart be with you ... sooner than you think, I hope.

Never before in its history--to my knowledge--has it favored any country, other than NEUTRAL Switzerland, with its physical presence: not the United States during the years of its truly Grand Power; and not Japan when she held all eyes and eager ears as she marched to Economic Greatness.

BIS has--quite rightly as the Central Bank of central banks--maintained a neutrality in lockstep with the country in which it is headquartered.
So surely a reasonable question is Why now? and Why Hong Kong?.

Kitco has discussed the two factions we see in the money/power/political world and, with a sufficient degree of probability, ascribed to them financial leanings: the World Bank/IMF/USG as the proponents of Fiat Forever  , and BIS as the champion of the Gold Franc and Business needs a Standard of Measurement . Further, we have discussed the war being waged between the two factions.

QUESTION: Where do our speculations lead should we remove the quotes from the word war? If it is decided to "wage war", an "economic jihad", then surely the cardinal rule is 'wage to win'? Circle the wagons? Safeguard the data...which is on computers...for example?

Now revist some of the posts in the past days--from Germany, from Arabic.com, etc., something is happening...moving, slowly, but moving.
This is not 'inspiring' I'm afraid, but it is Mighty thought provoking..

These days are very stressful for us...

to the cabinent position of ( acting ) Secretary of State of Kitco. Due to recent diplomatic developments, which I will not discuss, I hereby withdraw by name for consideration and run for cover. studio

RJ I have lost your e-mail address and would like to have it again.Please indulge me and contact me :Twoskool@chickasaw.com.

Mike Sheller ---I see nothing for Gold ---Sideways and Down ---July 18 to July 28 another false bull ---Better to sell the calls and puts ---Easy money Away to watch the Crepuscular

Henryd -

I know my tone is harsh, and I apologize that it spilled to you. I do not know you and have no reason to offend. If you ever come under the barrage that I have, please posts your feelings. I think your words would be sympathetic.

I have been shouted down. I kept my silence. The shouters gloated and bleated.

Now they will receive what they have given. Seems just to me.

Thanks for the G3 sites.

You predicted the Nasdaq would go down big within the next three days and it went down about 90 points in that time. Good Call.

Bodes for a dull market? Remains to be seen. RJ, if you can tear yourself away from throwing that strawberry jello, and chocolate pie could you tell me what is your company's spread for buy/sell on englehard 1 oz. palladium bars. ( Only asked this after The Bart has remained silent on a similar issue for so long the exact question was forgotton. )

No telling where it will bottom.

Sheller -

Mills is a fair man.

I need a good cut man though.

Join my corner.

S&P 500 JUN98 1092.10B -140
E-MINI JUN98 1092.25 -125
SEP98 1104.00 -150
NSDQ100 JUN98 1221.90A -810

Down 210. Oy vay.

223 -

Only sell 10 oz bars. About $19 now. The funny thing is, the spread on one ounce coins is only about $17. I know of nobody in the world who can beat my price on platinum.

Studio, Your comic relief always gives me a bellylaugh. I think we might lose a few posters. I'd miss RJ and Farfel. Hell, I still miss Ziva. Does Rotation out of Kitco correlate with a rotation into gold and gold stocks?

For the many who have asked, I can be found at rjd@pacbell.net

Some of us live in the light.

Some hide in the dark.

A chocolate Bre-X crocodile.

Ticking louder and louder
Coming closer and closer
to a town near you.

Email chatter:
Nick, went to the bank this morning and could not get any small bills ( 10-5-1's ) for my Y2K stash. They did not have any. Whatsa going on??

Irony of ironies: If most of the swiss' gold is leased ,if the government somehow circumvented a referendum prohibiting the sale of gold without a vote- wouldn't there be a stampede to replace the paper gold with the physical? Wouldn't that ultimately raise the price of gold? Wouldn't other lessees take notice?

Just, please, don't put so much energy into your anger.

HenryD

REF: "tricky ( Japan down 200 in 6 minutes. ) No telling where it will bottom."

Methinks the BOJ has a good shot at Nikkei 7000 to 8000. Meanwhile the Nippons are snapping up gold with their US T-Bond proceeds.

As I have posted several times recently, gold has made three waves up since January retracing a little over 50% of the last leg down ( all basis GCM8 ) . The waves were in the proper form of 5-3-5. We know the third wave ( second push ) can't be the whole of a bullish third wave since it isn't long enough. So is it a completed ABC and done and down she goes? Or is the third wave ( second push ) merely the first wave of a larger bullish third wave up? I don't think anyone ( and certainly not moi meme ) can say. The problem is that it could come down another ten dollars and we still might not know. That would be 50% of the last leg up.

One would think that a look at silver, with its nice strong five waves up from last summer and apparent three down in progress, would help, but even silver could have completed a terminal five wave sequence off the 1991-93 lows. Even platinum and palladium don't really help. Often Ewave is helpful, but not right now.

Gold did get back up above the 200 day ma but it got hammered back below. I do like the fact that it is above the 18 day ema and 30 day simple ma and the 18 is above the 30. These are ma's I use on all charts in every time frame.

There are rising bottoms and tops, and it's the best rally in a long while.

I am inclined to give gold a chance, partly because I like the market always and partly because I just cannot accept the deflation hype which has claimed so many even of the gold enthusiasts. True gold would ( might ) eventually go up if a credit collapse crash ensued, but it would go a lot lower first.

My long held view is that the long economic wave topped out in 1974. That was the last time that the world economy, as opposed to local or individual national ecnomies, was synchronized to the upside. It was also the momentum peak for commodites and interest rates, although in some cases actual prices got higher at the end of the "plateau" in 1979-80.

We have been in disinflation, or less inflation, since 1980, which is why stocks and bonds have gone up. ( Bonds after the initial panic "keep the doors open" interest rate rise at the start of dis-inflation. ) Year after year the deflationists keep looking for the great crash in vain because it already occurred from 1981-87 in commodites and stocks with a secondary low from 1990-96 depending upon markets.

If you don't believe that cycles exist or that similar economic and market conditions recur then none of this matters. The stock market dippies think stocks can only go up and the gold market deflationists believe that the world economies can only go down. I think they are both wrong. I think we are at the end of a long dis-inflationary period. Despite all the disasters the US and British and some other economies are running very well thank you. Too well some think. ( Try to hire an employee in the US for example. )

The thing which could and I think will make gold go up and stocks go down for a while ( 1-2 years ) would be the realization by the markets that dis-inflation is done, or about to be since marekts would anticipate this.

This is why I am willing and able to give gold a chance even though the technicals are indecisive. If you think we have deflation coming I would look for holding a mix of the strongest currencies, including the yen which will see its trade balance soar no matter what happens in a deflation. Gold is not a deflationist's protector. Count on it.

I'll tell you how stoopid I am.....I believe ALL this crap....every bit of it. As far as I'm concerned, it is all mutually non-contradictory. huh? Ziva...is there an aftermarket for these gas masks? I'll take five bucks for the lot.

have an advantage my EMail robnoel@primenet.com,sorry Bart could not help myself

I haven't noticed too much input on the yen/dollar relationship in recent posts, but have noticed that in the past 3 weeks, the price of gold had gone inversely to the value of the dollar in yen, almost daily. Last week, gold rallied with a dip in the dollar and on friday a rally in the dollar dropped gold like a hot potato. Same today. The same cannot be said for European currencies.

In the previous few months, gold had gone up almost daily with the long bond rate, but not for the last two weeks. If Japan is selling Tbills to raise cash, that would cause the bond rate to climb. OK, ( today it was up .09% today to 6.036%, a major move ) . However, the dollar should not continue up unless there is great weakness in the yen. How would this affect gold?

From a very short term perspective, if the dollar is up again tomorrow with the yen ( closed today at about 132.6 ) , sell gold. Especially if the bond rate drops back under 6%.

This msg for very short term use only. May be invalid by noon.

You state..."Meanwhile the Nippons are snapping up gold with their US
T-Bond proceeds."

With respect, what is the source of this info? Or where you being sarcastic?

Since you two live in the same part of the world, I would appreciate if you would just meet and do one another in, if that's what you must. It will keep me from jumping over your flame postings. I respect the opinions of you both, and really, really just want to know WHAT YOU KNOW about things influencing gold's price direction and timing. I don't care if it is geopolitical, or technical, or from your brother who works for the BIS, or from your sister who is married to Alan Greenspan, or from your Japanese hedge fund buddies, or even if you are ANOTHER in disguise. Just the information, sirs - I welcome it all; take the other elsewhere please.

When most talking heads were celeberating the 'end' of the Asian Flu, Farrell of ML was raised a lone voice to say that it will take three months for the effect of what had taken place in Asia to spread to the rest of the world. But then who listens to Farrell in the age of Battapaglias.

Where are we trying to go with this BIS/Hong Kong office observation? BIS/China/Japan vs. W.Bank/IMF/US? EMU? M. East? Strategy: Currency War field headquarters?

ripped off from WGC site

http://www.gold.org/Pages/Gedt1.htm

In the US, meanwhile, sales of Eagle gold coins reached 88,000 ounces in March 1998, up 17.3% from February. First quarter sales amounted to 268,500 ounces, up 62.5% from the same period last year. In the UK, gold jewellery hallmarking rose sharply during the first quarter of the year; the number of gold articles marked increased by 30.3% over Q1 1997 to 4,323,161, representing a weight increase of 40.9% to more than 21 tonnes. In India, the first marriage season is just beginning and will run until the onset of the monsoon in June. Seasonally, this is traditionally one of the highest periods of demand for gold.

REF: kitkat ( @vronsky )
No sarcasm intended nor implied. To best answer your question I refer you to a report at the following website. At the bottom of the report there are 9 other essays supporting the statement. OH, pls remember you must close the space in front of the word "-eagle" before posting the URL to the Internet locator:
http://www.gold -eagle.com/gold_digest_98/oracle012298.html

See, that is the problem with palladium physical. It is relatively illiquid IMHO.

If The Bart doesn't publish a buy sell spread ( and his sell price for casting grain diverges so from spot ) and R.J. doesn't have 1 ounce bars and other ( unnamed as they are not contributors here ) big nationally advertised coin and P.M. dealers have a $60+ spread ( when they can get palladium to sell at all that is ) then there's something very, very thin about its market saturation. IMHO

Which lends credence to the pundit here who conjectured that it may cross over platinum, becoming the noblest metal if industrial users keep up demand or fail if they do switch over. It also lends credence to the idea that its market is relatively inefficient compared to the gold and platinum markets. IMHO

Jes' ramblin' folks. I think it t'was 'cause I'm still a little dizzy from that blueberry bagel that hit me during the food fight. Thin I'll go veg out and watch the rest of the 'Merlin' miniseries. IMHO

RJ, did you get beat up a lot as a kid?

Farfel, nice job on the prediction. Keep it coming. Thank you. ISO

a lot of Japanese property is tied to their stock market, and if it goes down too far, their value won't cover the mortgage payments. That is when the real problems start for Japan.

Henryd -

We are not talking anger here, we are talking payback.

In the midst of acrimony

Some have kept their sense of humor.

MY picks:

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 00:1

sharefin ( RJ ) ID#284255:

Could it perhaps be PMT time or PM time?

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 01:41

mozel ( @kitco ) ID#153102:

If RJ would relent and post, I would support a Bart rule that everybody ignore RJ's posts so his clients don't get the wrong idea.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 01:52

John Disney__A ( Clients are no fun ) ID#24135:

To all I have no clients .. it gives me a lot of personal freedom. but then I dont make any money

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 02:54

Auric ( MURRSTEIN? ) ID#255151:

This mushy reconciliation between F* and RJ has caused me to have insomnia. Therefore, I am forced to sue all of you.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 07:16

Mike Sheller ( thisn'that, base thoughts ) ID#34744

Let's just do it for the right reasons. MY reasons.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 11:26

EB ( hmmmmm ) ID#22956:

away...from permabulls

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 00:00

RJ ( ..... OLD GSC.... Again ..... ) ID#410215:

.Remember which is the pointy end

And My nomination for the funniest post of the day is:

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 10:44

farfel ( @ALL...please prepare yourselves for a little delight.. ) ID#340302:

...a concerted gold short squeeze is in the works. Try and get on board before the upspike.

The man obviously does not even understand the term "short squeeze". Something he read in a book at Harvard or Dartmouth. He then picks precisely the most boneheaded time to post his opinion of the squeeze. Read that book again Farboy. Work on your comprehension.

How come you didn't thank me in you superficial supplication today?

Am I not worthy?

Oh yeah. The "being nice in response to an insult by thanking the insulter" indicates fear and uncertainty and is weak in any case. Read that in a Psychology book once. I remembered it.

We will continue this, yes?

Sleeping tigers and all that rot

OK

I enjoy both postings,when reading I do not expect posters to be right or wrong. The market is not made or lost in one day. We have to look at the long term. I try to make my investment decisions on those bases. Farfel I beleive is wiser and calm, I do not beleive he has anything to prove. Rj in your case probably younger full of energy. Rome was not build in one day. Same for the building of a good portfolio time and patience. Not only gold, like a good recipe a bit of this and a bit of that.Lets be cool. keep up the good postings.

1. Regarding Y2K problems, our company is investigating the impact to our PC based systems that we sell. Our systems are used as specialized electronic test equipment. The only thing that the date is used for is to put it on reports or to put a date stamp on files that are created. We know that we have to change a couple of our programs from a 2-digit to a 4-digit date code ( no big deal ) , but today we wanted to check Y2K compatibility on some of the computers powering some of our older equipment in the field. I checked two 486 computers of 1991 vintage. These computers use 1991 AMI ( American Megatrends ) BIOS which is probably used in hundreds of thousands of computers.

We set the date to 12-31-99 and let it roll over to 1-1-2000: NO PROBLEM with the system clock. We then set the date to 12-31-99, turned the computer off and let it roll over to 1-1-2000 and then turned it back on. The clock then said 1-1-80. The computer actually has two clocks, the system clock and the real time clock. Evidently the system clock rolls over to 1-1-2000 just fine but the real time clock does not. I believe that the system clock is set from the real time clock each time the computer is switched on.

Can you imagine the trouble this could cause on PC's that are used for controlling real time processes and systems such as security access control systems, industrial processes etc.

It is interesting that our programmer used to write COBOL code for the state government back in the 1970's. His boss specifically told him to use a 2-digit date code for the year in order to save disk storage. How many more programmers were given this direction?

By the way, go to http://www.microsoft.com/ithome/topics/year2k/product/criteria.htm . I figured that if anyone's software was Y2K compliant, it would be Microsoft. Actually there are 3 programs that are "not compliant" and at least 21 that have minor issues that are not compliant. Even MS-DOS 6.22 has some non-compatibility issues.

2. Regarding market sentiment, as contrarian theory goes: once "everyone" is a bull then everyone is fully invested and the market can crash. Don't you think that "everyone" includes the folks on this forum? Isn't that why we have so many disheartened goldbugs? A few seem even gleeful about this situation. Once virtually all of our hopes are dashed then the equities market can drop.

3. The impediments to DOW 10,000 as I see it are now:

3a. The new European currency and the reaction to its success or failure. What about its gold backing?

3b. Ken Starr' s report. If it is really damaging, it has to hurt. After all, Democrats are still in denial. They say "there's no credible evidence". Ken Starr is NOT stupid. He knows that if he doesn't come up with something substantial, he will look like an idiot for spending $30M on nothing.

3c. Michael Belkin was on CNBC this morning. He reiterated the information he presented in the most recent Strategic Investment. That is, he presents the information that some countries in Europe are even more exuberant about their stock market than we are about ours. I believe that he specifically mentioned Spain, Italy and Switzerland. Their markets are much higher against their 200 day moving averages than the markets in the USA.

3d. Extreme price/book, price/earnings and dividend yield ( recently 1.54 for the DOW ) .

4. If 3 above is not enough to cause the market to crash, then Y2K will finish it off.

That's all for now. Best regards to everyone ( go get em Farfel ) .

Please consider emailing. I'd like to hear from you.

Email to mybear@flash.net