Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:01 - ID#26669)
One more comment before bed
If you guys don't factor in the massive amount of money that is printed daily to feed foodstamps, school lunches, SSI, SSD, VA pensions, SS pensions, Section 8, FHA housing, crop insurance, medicaire, medicaide, disaster aid, et cetera ad nauseum, then you'll miss the rest of the story about US inflation. Sure Greenspan's bunch control interest rates, but it is ENTITLEMENTS which decide whether inflation or deflation occurs. IMHO

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:01 - ID#190411)
How did you get away with using html signs ( ? ) . Donald_A couldn't do that today. Are you the boss's son?
Ya weenie, I just tried it, and I couldn't get it through. You must be the boss's son.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:01 - ID#267344)
Here's a good one - IRS Witness Urged Not To Go Public

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:02 - ID#304282)
vronsky 7000 or 8000 is very possible for Japan.
Not tonight though. Only down 137 now. Globex futures are up. Expect at least a up opening tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big up day. Depends on what happens in Europe tonight and what kind of numbers come out in the morning. I doubt if this mania ends because of possible rate hike. My gut feeling is a rally with REALLY weak internals until mid May. Then a Fed rate hike or some external factor brings this house of cards crashing down.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:10 - ID#267344)
223 - That cash surplus is important to consider, but
it will only cause inflation after it comes back from overseas investors, Dollar hoarders ( why they hoard $$ instead of gold, I don't know ) . They will be holding on to it for a while longer - I would, better than the Won's unpredictabillity. Also, something will need to fill the e-cash void as we approach Y2k.
- c

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:24 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John, in order to answer your question on Dmitri
I must confirm that Dmitri is a brother, but I'm still
not sure that the mentioned brother is Dmitri and not the
other guy...

On the other hand, logically speaking, Dmitri is brother of
his brother, but I do not know the other brother, who
obviously is Dmitri's brother... What is absolutely certain
that both individuals are brothers, and this is a fact!

I hope my answer was clear, detailed and complete.

Your undisputed brother Oris.

P.S. I talked to some Germans, Belgians and French about
their understanding of EURO and what it is going to give
them, and can you imagine, nobody knows nothing about it!

Is this the fun or what?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:26 - ID#285121)
Tricky, you mean like a Hillary indictment or something ?
I'm an optimist arn't I.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:30 - ID#285121)
Hillary laugh :)
I told my wife this evening that I thought Hillary would be indicted. She was very sympithetic. She said " Poor Bitch"

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:33 - ID#266105)

P.S. I talked to some Germans, Belgians and French about
their understanding of EURO and what it is going to give
them, and can you imagine, nobody knows nothing about it!


Brother Oris, this is quite typical too of Americans
and the dollar.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:39 - ID#238422)
That is why we all brothers, we know nothing...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:40 - ID#340302)
Stagflation Scenario Developing in Japan...
...and it looks like it is in full bloom here. Good for gold, yes!

April 28, 1998

Unemployment Rate in Japan Up to 3.9%


TOKYO, -- Japan's unemployment rate jumped to the highest level in at least 45 years, 3.9 percent, in March as the stagnant economy failed to create jobs, the Government said Tuesday.

It was the highest monthly jobless rate since the Government began taking statistics in 1953, the Management and Coordination Agency said.

The number of unemployed workers swelled by 310,000, or 12 percent, to a record 2.77 million, the largest monthly increase in 30 years, the agency said.

It was the second consecutive rise for the jobless rate, which climbed to 3.6 percent in February after lingering at 3.5 percent for four months.

Japan's unemployment rate would be significantly higher if calculated by United States or European standards. The country counts anyone who has worked one hour or more in the month surveyed as fully employed.

The number of people with jobs totaled 64.68 million, down 210,000 from the same month a year earlier, the agency said.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to continue to rise as the country's economic slump has persisted. The Government has announced an economic stimulus plan in an effort to restart growth.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 00:43 - ID#346458)
chas - Allegheny Mining Conference
charley, just saw your post of 21:23 about the conference call for Allgheny Mining at noon. Please copy??? or can I listen in or what. Off to watch Los Angeles finish kicking our St Louis Blues tails the rest of the way off. Ugggh.


John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:08 - ID#24135)
I'll take that job

For RJ
Never mind the salary just get me
one of those Russian Blondes

(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:11 - ID#342376)
Now in posiive territory according to CBS Market Watch.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:13 - ID#340302)
Just for the record -- My philosophy..., as long as Bart Kitner permits, then I will continue my relentless attack on gold short logic.

If such compelling arguments cause ad hominem reactions, well then so be it.

However, I continue to believe that, if my arguments were so "off the wall," then like any lunatic, I would be completely ignored by the majority of Kitco posters. Yet, that does not seem to be the case.

Once again, I do not claim omniscience nor perfection nor absence of error where the gold markets are concerned. Yet, I do not believe my absence of omniscience stems from the fact that I do not make a living trading the metals. I do the best I can based on the intellect God gave me, the masses of materials I read, and the sources of info I access. Moreover, I choose my anonymity, not from embarassment as to who I am or what I do, but simply because my anti-Establishment, anti-status quo stance ( and a fervent goldbug is certainly not mainstream ) does not benefit me in the world in which I operate.

Years ago ( 1982 ) , I once had a full service stockbroker devoted to trading stock the entire day. Yet, his forecasting abilities re: equities were nothing less than dismal. Being in the profession does not guarantee success, albeit it can certainly be helpful. It is the average investor in aggregate, not the traders, who ultimately determine the markets' directions. Each individual's opinion matters as much as the other since, again, in aggregate, they become a powerful force.

I continue to believe that the outbursts of certain emotional posters on this forum are substantive indications that gold's previously foul odor is transmuting into a bouquet of roses. I am reminded of the cries of horror from outraged goldbugs as they witnessed gold's foundations crumble swiftly from '96 through 'late '97. There was much near-hysterical emotion, utter disbelief, and screams of protest as standard, historical goldbug ideology fell under attack of the New Paradigm. The notion that gold would fall below 300 seemed inconceivable to the g-bugs back much the same way that a major, incipient, powerful gold bull, ready to burst forth into a vertical spurt upon the spin of a dime, strikes terror into the hearts of those who have counted on its continual descent.

That's the way I sees it.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:15 - ID#233199)
How is the "Aging Hippies for Gold" support group anyway?

I suppose in part it's the prospect of a large pofit and the "chance of a lifetime", but what makes me feel the best is prospect of a return to confidence and honesty that I expect a revived gold standard will bring.

I hope the end is worth the comming turmoil, but the lawlessness we have already have isn't so much fun either......


(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:20 - ID#253228)
Error has been my best teacher in life. When my projection of a few months ago showing Homestake going immediately down did not pan out, I went back to check my program to see if there was some improvement I could make. As it turns out I did make two changes and am encouraged by the results.

For some time I have not been able to match the time series of the S&P 500 with a combination of cycles ( plus a trend ) that accounts for the price movement. With the program changes mentioned above, I can now get a match between the synthetic wave combination and the historic data. The projection into the future shows we are just past a peak and will continue to decline until mid December for a total 36% correction before the uptrend resumes and carries the market to new highs. For those of you who seem to be anti stock market this may be some encouragement, however there is no dramatic crash; only a steady erosion.

Of course you must remember that gold shares are part of the market and my work still shows Homestake falling into a very deep valley. However, the bottom using my program modifications now looks to be in late September. The calculations still show it going way down, maybe even below $1. I am sure gold will not have as significant a decline, just because it did not get caught up in the exuberance of the recent countertrend rally to the extent of the gold shares. Nevertheless, gold certainly would have to go down some in order for the devistation in Homestake to take place.

For what it is worth this is my current thinking and of course I am confident. I kept my short position that I prematurely put on and even taking that into account expect to make a 100% profit.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:22 - ID#24135)
Is there a chemist in the house
to the chemist
RJ forecast recently that palladium may
surpass platinum in price. Now I doubt that
but he could be right.
Price momentum could carry it past the platinum
price OR there could be more fundamental
Harking back to school days .. I vaugely
recall that the more active a catalyst is,
the more ACTIVE SITES it has at the
interstices ( did I make that up? ) of its
lattice like crystalline structure.
Since catalytic application of the PGM
now controls their price ( rather than
jewellery ) , some measure of the relative
number of ACTIVE SITES per unit of weight
should determine their future price.
... However the optimal long term mix of
auto catalyst from the cost standpoint must
be consistant with the worldwide production
of the ratio of the three ( or more ) metals
( after leaving out some platinum for
jewellery demand ) .
So what has more active sites .. platinum
palladium or rhodium ??

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:26 - ID#24135)
We're all brothers (and sisters)
For Oris ..
Do you happen to know if Dmitri has
met Russell. Russell isn't my brother
but he's not from Toronto either.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:35 - ID#24135)
It's no big deal
To all
A creative solution to swiss bank .. nazi
gold problem.
One swiss bank transfers 1000 tons of gold
to another swiss bank as "sale" hee hee.
Swiss CB prints corresponding swiss francs
and donates to holocaust victims.
Everyone is happy all round.
Notice how they never talk about giving
the GOLD to the victims but always
setting up a "fund" from the "sale" of
the gold.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:36 - ID#255284)
I would wish to be Guy Fawkes, the only honest man to enter Parliament.

Hey, no fair trying to make me Speaker of the House, at least under the Westminster system, the Speaker is all but forbidden to speak. You trying to gag me mate? Cos you should bring a whip, handcuffs and spurs if that's your aim. Otherwise, don't try to gag the aurator. ;-#

Naah, I'd rather be the Ghost of Guy Fawkes, haunting a myriad of sunless back-passages of this eldrich assembly. I'd carry a stick of dynamite to light under those who have checked their sense of humour at the door I'd rattle my chains at the pompous to give them a start, and I'd always be ready with a cuss or two to whisper in the ears of the sanctimonious. I'd rather be Guy Fawkes, the only honest man to enter Parliament.

Guy Fawkes explained, if that be needed:

You can blow up cyber-Westminster

Fred@Vienna & other German speakers, a Guy Fawkes link in German:


Anyone got a light?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:39 - ID#253228)
It is nice to know that there are other anti-establishment minds at work. I also consider myself far from the center. I am somewhere between a Libertarian and an anarchist politically, and I long ago recognized that conventional wisdom was at best only a temporary estimate until the real knowledge was revealed. Most knowledge is as yet undiscovered. The problem is that you have to wade through lots of ideas before you find something that works since most new "knowledge" is also faulty. Based on what I have read of your thoughts you seem to be close to reality. In the long run gold will prevail and an expandable money supply will be exposed for the fraud that it is. However, there are a lot more people out there whose literary experience is reading stop signs. The average Joe is unfortunately not equipped with sufficient knowledge or the brain power to use it to know when he is being had, so it will take something more painful that has yet been experienced for changes which you have in mind to actually take place.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 01:41 - ID#410215)
..... Palladium for two .....

JD -

Don't know about rhodium. I have seen figures that put palladium use per auto catalyst at anywhere from 1.75 to 2.5 times more than platinum. I am no chemist, but this would seem that platinum is the more efficient catalyst, yes? More SITES? I know not. More to go, for sure. Say hi to you brother Russell in Toronto for me, he still owes me $20 from a bet on a Bluejays game

Still no info on the way deep underwater mines, I now am doubting their very existence, but I will persevere. Now I have two quests and life is good.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:18 - ID#410215)
..... Far* From Over .....

By "certain emotional posters" Far* means me. After spending the last few hours calling him a jerk, I look forward to more of the same. His words will fall under the microscope. The inconsistencies will thrive. He will drown in his own mire.

A weak and Fearful Farfel Fellow spoke this eve. He would deign to report on markets with " the best I can based on the intellect God gave me, the masses of materials I read, and the sources of info I access." Sorry far-flung, takes a rational assessment of this info, not incestuous foreplay, to make it work.

He met a bad broker once and has decided all are the same. I wonder what his racial views are? Does he make such thin distinctions there? Maybe all Chinese look alike or some feeble outlook like that.

Perhaps this is the root of his narrow and very simple minded zealousness. He spouts some Economics 101, claims a Yale degree or two, hides in the bushes, and then holds forth in a regal manner with his "reports".

Should we decide to dissect some of them, we would find how shallow his knowledge is and how he has very little concept of which he speaks. Fine in the classroom, but on the trading floor things happen fast. Not enough time to run to the book to see that a short squeeze propels the price higher not lower.

Anybody here see the movie, "Good Will Hunting"? Remember the scene in the bar when Will stuck up for his friend against the smarmy grad student? He left him diced on the floor, all with words.

This scene will play out that way.

Heed FearFul's tale of woe. List not to others. List not to him. List not to me, for I have no more to say of these markets.

Only petty payback and poison barbs written by his own hand.

I'm only getting warmed up lad, how DOES it feel?

Don't bother telling me, I already know.


I got a post like this for every "I don't care" chant he ever made. All things carry a price.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:27 - ID#410215)
..... Hey! I got a CHANT! .....

They gloated and bleated

Ignorance bloated and fetid

Now demoted and defeated




(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:30 - ID#270224)
Disney - Surprise the chemist in the house is back!
Rhodium is the most valuable of the catalysts for car exhaust control.

It has wonderful chemical properties. Too valuable to turn into jewellery or coin.

I agree with the premise that the value of a precious metal is not as money but a function of what can be done with it that nothing else can easily replace. Catalytic conversion of vehicle exhaust is the most valuable high volume application of precious metals like rhodium and platinum. Palladium has tremendous value in the purification of hydrogen which can in turn be used in purification of silicon used in production of computer chips like the Pentium II.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:37 - ID#410215)
..... Add to my palladium prediction .....

Farfel will dry up and blow away. Either that, or he will follow his soulmate OLD GSC into a new name - perhaps one not so silly - and begin to post anew, unashamed of his behavior and his public ignorance.

This will come to pass.

There was Puetz before him.

Farfel will share the same coffin.

So it is written.

So let it be done.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:41 - ID#248180)
@ Speaking Stralian - Lads!!! LADS!! Heuoye EWES GUOYES Cut it OUT!
Ewes blokes had betta settle down a be nioyce ta one anonthers. I just logged in an could hear the fighten kicken screamen and general lout behaviour. Weez a team all on the one side at Barts Cyber PUB of the Wayout Back and Beyond.

Respectfully to all Posters.

Let us get down to the real business of commodities, currency wars, PM's and the direct effect of these markets by PICKLES, Vodka, Russian Blondes, Australian Red Wines, Good food, Wonderful Friends, and Excellent Scenery. Here! Here! They shouted HERE! HERE.

Farfel: Apologies are owed by you to Bro/ORIS, you failed to include BRO/ORIS in your list. He is our Most Esteemed Russian Poster and has excelled in the Zivatron, Vodka/Pickle & PM price moniter charting and forcasting.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:49 - ID#270224)
If you want to learn about precious metals uses then...
go to Yahoo and type in

Johnson Matthey


Engelhard Corporation

These are 2 of the largest producers of industrial preciuous metals products in the world. First class operations both of them. Have fun!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:55 - ID#410215)
..... Farbouy .....

Do you like apples?

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:56 - ID#24135)
That Russell Jerk
for RJ ..
Im not responsible for that idiots
debts. He should go back to Toronto.
He never lived there anyway.
I fear pallad/plats ratio data
is badly confounded by obsolete
factoid that palladium used to be lots
cheaper than plats.
Another chap just raised issue of
catalytic removal of Hydrogen from
Silicon or something like that
by palladium to make pentium sheeps.
That throws some added stuff into the
game. Solving this PMG equation could
light the path to riches glory
and Russian Blondes. Some time must
be set aside. What the hell, I work
for nothing anyway.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:56 - ID#252127)
In Asia tonight

At this hour all is red except for China, India and the

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:58 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Several fairly amazing facts about today's action. While a -146pt decline wasn't even in the top-80 percentage declines of the past decade, the breadth ( advance/decline ) ratio was the 6th worst. And this followed 2 previous days of very poor breadth. Meanwhile, volume was near the light-end of the past 2 weeks so we haven't even begun to see any hard selling. The 30-yr Treasury is now undergoing a critical test of its 5-month high in yields. If it breaks above 6-1/4% then investors will be surprised how fast everything falls apart on Wall Street. Right now, expect some rally attempts over the next 48-hours. We'll be surprised if technical gauges don't diverge in the negative direction. We'd be even more surprised if any rallies from here amounted to much.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 02:58 - ID#39971)
Try This One Rj
Jack and Jill Went Up The Hill,

To fetch a pail of water,

Jack fell down,And Broke His Crown

And Jill Came Tumbling After...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:00 - ID#410215)
..... Thoreau .....

The cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:01 - ID#255284)
Yeah that's right. I'm just wondering how come I got mentioned twice in that list. Is my evil brother posting here ( hear ) too ( two ) ?

After what happened to the Stralian boat in the last America's cup, it's a wonder youse fellas havent taken the word "list" out of your Strine dictionary.

Thanks for reminding us of that, um edifying, time in Kitco's history, the creation of the Zivatron.

Also think I have met your brother in auckland, his name is Junior jnr. are you fellas related?


and rembering that "thumb's Up" has a different meaning in Stralia too.

Strad Master
(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:01 - ID#250297)
ALL: My wife wants to know if anyone has a recommendation for a good book dealing with business cycles? ( that all the cycles have bitten the dust, of course. Hehehehehe!! ) Haven't had much time to read or post here. Been too busy with concerts, kids, and losing money to visit for long. Anyway, would appreciate any help that can be given. Thanks.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:01 - ID#270224)
Disney Palladium
Palladium will remove hydrogen from a gas mixture. i.e. it can act like a hydrogen gas filter. Ultra pure hydrogen removes oxygen from from sand ( silicon dioxide ) to produce high purity silicon whose purity is a function of the purity of the hydrogen used to "clean". Palladium purifies hydrogen better than any other material known to man.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:05 - ID#24135)
Heah Heah
for Junior
You got that right!! Oris is a stand up
guy who has made many contributions ..
the Givatron may have saved our you know
whats .. and fighting off Ziva alone made
him worth his weight in Bandwidth. Not
to mention timely hints on dealing with
Siberian Bears and tigers plus excellent
recipes, inspired forecasts, geopolitical
advice, and insight into dealing with
sometimes tricky Russians who fire their
whole Government kind of thing.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:10 - ID#410215)
..... $20 US.... None of those Rands, Hear? .....

Russell got in a little over his head with this bet. At the threat of loosing personal digits, he said to "look up me bro" in South Africa.

All seven fingers point to you, pal. Pay up; it is the wise thing to do, and you've been cleaning up after that little squirt your whole life.

Maybe he said to "look up me bra" and you have been cleaning up squirts.

Its late, and I'm confused.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:11 - ID#24135)
Removing hydrogen makes Sheeps go faster
for KO
OK KO I believe you .. But can the
quantity of palladium required for this
use be anywhere NEAR its use as an auto
catalyst .. somehow I dont think so ..
What about platinum ?? are you saying its
second class to palladium or rhodium in
auto catalysts??

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:12 - ID#410215)
..... Under Post To Under JD .....

Who claims no clients and no money.

But where's my twenty?

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:14 - ID#24135)
Im moving back to toronto
I gotta talk to Russell .. only I
know he's not there.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:14 - ID#340302)
@RJ...well, it's midnight here and time to go to bed...
...yes, my wife and I saw, "Good Will Hunting." It was a nice film and we enjoyed it a great deal.

Cheer up...don't have a nervous breakdown on my account.

The dark clouds hanging over your head...they too shall pass.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:16 - ID#255284)
Now that hurts, with respect to oris, his brother, his brother's brother, his mother and all the orises heretofore and hereinafter, oris did not fight ziva alone. Many and varied were the posters who found their voices to rail/rale/rile against the apocalyptic claptrap. I had hoped that "my little contribution" may not've been so easily overlooked, mea culpa.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:16 - ID#286279)
gold dudes & dudettes
poke chops, poke chops
greezy greezy
gold's gonna fly
ez ez

This one should work if you chant it, or murmur it quietly, or sing it joyously to the world, or just say it silently to yourself, at least once each day, the more often, the more better

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:17 - ID#24135)
Ok Ill Pay

But I normally cover Russell screwups
with a blocked Kwatcha account in Zambia.
( pronounced like Igotcha )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:19 - ID#22956)
I got yer apples......

Well, I was watching a good boxing match tonight and all of the sudden a kitco discussion group broke out. Now, how do you like dem apples?

give em 'ell #3-goldie-monex-laddie.......och nayeeeeeeeee! observe the battle


(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:23 - ID#224149)
Kitco Night Crowd
Each and every week --- Another poster hits bottom ( Including yours truly a few weeks ago ) Maybe Gold is an emotional brain dip? ----Leaking yellow goo ----Dangerous for the psyche ---Away before the next SA Droopy posting.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:25 - ID#410215)
..... But you are too modest .....

In keeping with the general spirit of calling it as it is ( four two letter words in a row? ) I will repost the link Aurator posted in its entirety. With one obvious exception. I have liberally spent my profanity quotient for a time, yes? You want the real juice, ya' gotta' punch the link.

Date: Sat Jan 31 1998 02:52

aurator ( not too loud. I might wake up Ted, Norbert the Nark, then I'll be in trouble ) ID#257148:


There is no "us"

there is only one monumental ego. Yours.

Go away. Leave us alone. this is a gold chat. Take your apocalyptic clap trap and waste bandwidth somewhere else. One last thing.

( Mystery Phrase )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:31 - ID#253418)
A little help
Anybody got a copy of the Wall STreet Journal or Barrons and who can tell me what the Open Interest is in April Comex Gold.

I would appreciate knowing what the open interest in April Comex Gold is because tomorrow is the last trading day if I have it correct.

Please drop me a line or refer me to where individual contract motnths' open interest can be found.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:33 - ID#270224)
Disney - Catalytic Converter Values
Rhodium is more valuable than platinum which is more valuable than palladium. Catalytic conversion in vehicles is rhodium highest value application. It is used in combination with ceric oxide for destroying carbon monoxide emissions during combustion of gasoline.

Platinum has many more applications but these are different for rhodium. Platinum can destroy NOx emissions ( orange smog precursor ) and is the worlds best catalyst for converting ammonia into nitric acid used to make nitrate explosives and fertilizers.

Palladium has already been discussed.

The only precious metal which doesn't share these features is gold!!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:46 - ID#22956)
pm stuff.....dig it?

( last paragraph ) ....what will PA prices be when it comes to delivery JUNE ( ! ) ( ? ) ......JUNE???!? lot's 'o upside? hmmmm...

how can PL lose here? btw.....nice job again DJ on your channels...uh huh.


thanking'theDon'forhisemail;- )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 03:49 - ID#410215)
..... A Good Man ...

JD -

Went by Toronto once. You're right he wasn't there. At least not when I was. That he was not when you were is why you were trying to skip out on the twenty, wasn't it? I was going to claim more digits, because that is my general humour under my "dark cloud" ( A SIMPERING RESPONSE AT BEST ) late this eve. You Honour your Family with your loyalty to dear Russell. I wave all claims on the twenty in a magnanimously manly manner.

Semper Fi

(Tue Apr 28 1998 04:04 - ID#410215)
..... Good Night Far Down Feller .....

After an evening such as this, perhaps you may glimpse your face a little clearer

I found your tactics an easy fit and at once turned them on you

You may now have some feeling of the view of the boot

From the eye of the ant

I did naught to you but that which you offered me

Your words strident base and boring

Mine own lyrical and cunning

Outshines your dull wit

Should you wake to find your spirit renewed

Rather than spirit healed

And should once again treat others

As you have been treated here

You will fall far, sad fellow


(Tue Apr 28 1998 04:18 - ID#253418)
I have come to question your asserion that you have clients that read your posts on Kitco. I don't think you have any clients that read your posts.

In that regard you are quite safe.

Happen to know the open interest in April gold ??

(Tue Apr 28 1998 04:26 - ID#284255)
Year 2000 Problem Could Mean Lights Out At Some Companies
We're on the deck of the Titanic, and we need to start building some lifeboats.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 04:34 - ID#284255)
Dow data for May
may historical data:May-Treacherous:May has proven to be a treacherous month to forecast and has a record of treacherous behavior, with the last-half action usually reversing or consolidating any trend of the first few weeks. Since 1960, the months record has been disappointing for bulls, with 18 losers including the hard hits of 1962 and1970. The record improved to neutral in the 1980's, at 5 to 5. Even then the win side was difficult. In 1987, the Dow gained five points for the month. But first it suffered a collapse of nearly 200 intraday Dow points before making a micacle recovery. Buyers of stock on any May weakness at least know that the postulated "summer rally" will within a few weeks give them a lot of lip service. More than six summer rallies of over 10% since WWII had their footing in May. In 1970 and 1987 the rallies amounted to more that 20%. The secular record is slightly negative, compared to recent action. May's three worst losses all more than 50 years ago. The 1940 Dunkerque slide was the heaviest decline for any month between 1938 and 1987. May boxscore; annual high/lows:Highs ( 2 ) since 1950:1. Lows:4 since 1950:2. Best /worst performances, gains%;1897/14.7%,1919/13.6% ,1933/13.5%. losses; 1940/21.7% ,1932/20.3% ,1931/15.0%. yearly record 49 advances 52 declines. major tops/bottoms: Bull markets ( 1 ) ;May 29,1946. end of the great WWII bull marketBear markets ( 1 ) ; May 26,1970. a day of record panic.A loss of 3.1% or 20.81 points.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 04:39 - ID#393224)
XAU non-expert mois
Possibility #1

Take your ruler ( preferably see-through plastic ) and place it under the last 3 lows ( steep right hand side including yesterday ) . Nice straight line, huh. Up from here--starting tomorrow.

Possibility #2

Take your ruler and place it under the 3 lows going back a bit. We could then be looking at a retracement to the 76-78 area ( depending on how soon ) .

Remember: Keep it simple, stupid!! These charts show past behaviour and future possibilities. Was it APH who told us the story of the wise trader who recommended the 'ruler' approach? I have been using it for years and it works!!! I wouldn't trade my plastic see-through ruler for an ounce of gold ( liar!! ) .

Possibility # 3

Mois hasn't got a clue and you should ignore this post.

Caveat to all the emptors out there. I don't trade this XAU stuff but find that a lot of the patterns mimic the ones I DO trade.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:04 - ID#256326)
Kitco Rant-o-meter
The sense of disappointment here at Kitco that the US stock market did not melt away, along with the entire economy, and that gold did not vault heavenward is, to say the least, quite palpable in the past eighteen hours of posts. Never let it be said that this is not valuable information for the astute trader.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:18 - ID#287337)
Market manipulation
Great article:

John Crudele points out how the Fed is between a rock & a hard place on interest rates.

He also points out something I have been hearing from other sources- key economic data is being cooked by the Clinton administration and Greenspan can't trust the data until the "revisions" are released weeks later.

- STeve

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:18 - ID#255284)
Sure are a lot of Rogers. Comes from all that rogering, I guess

Candelabra, I've been thinking of that other famous Rogers in the world of investment advice, Kenny, and "his" signature song The Gambler ( written by Don Schlitz ) "You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them." And I remembered this:

Summer Wages

Never hit seventeen when you play against the dealer
For you know, the odds won't ride with you.
Never leave your woman alone, with your friends around to steal her
Years are gambled and lost like summer wages.

Ian Tyson

onetime of Ian & Sylvia, they were mentioned a few spins ago, for those that remember.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:23 - ID#318183)
Morning Greetings to all the seers here! Does anyone have any knowledge and/or insight into the trading on AMEX - ie the ability or right of a floor broker to take some of the shares in a trade instead of them all going to the buyer?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:25 - ID#318183)
I KNOW the end is near when APWD goes up 50% today !!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:27 - ID#248180)
@ John Disney "Pentium Sheeps" Heh Heh!
Sir John, I posted earlier with a sincere desire to restore the dignity of this rag-time team of posters. As quick as I posted I was off to dinner hoping to return to a serious debate of the issues I had raised as important to this site as well as mankind. Sir John you may not be aware of it, but my attention span is very short regarding chemistry & PGM's. You had to mention sheep.

Rodney Rude ( rude comedian ) once said "My uncle from NZ can make a U-Turn ( ewe turn ) faster than anybody- and you aught to see her ewes pop out when he does.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:31 - ID#255284)
sounds like you're seeing a little front-running, just one of the tricks "your" brokers get up to. They don't all want to see you become rich, unless your name is Hillary. I'm sure the locals can help you better than I.

Gotta go shuffle some cards.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:34 - ID#248180)
@ Aurator
Your contribution to the Ziva/Wars did not go unnoticed, Don't you miss her a little bit. if sheep were zivas a zivas were sheep ~~~~~~

Yes Ian & Sylvia - still play em and get heaps of enjoyment from their music.

Baah baah baah byyye Gooollllddd

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:36 - ID#284255)
The Contrarian's View
But the main reason for all of the Clinton-connected quotes is because they are part and parcel of the current "feel-good" national mania of which the stock-market bubble is a part. They are a reflection of the psychology of the public that allows them ( assisted by the incompetence of the mainstream media ) to ignore the warning signs of three im-pending disasters: A stock-market meltdown, which is virtually assured from current grotesque levels of overvaluation and whose aftereffects may very possibly rival those of the Great Depression of the 1930s or the Dutch depression of the 1630s following the Tulipmania; the threat to our economic infrastructure posed by Y2K failures; and a disgraced President.

These three disasters are converging, and it's difficult to assess which will arrive first, though for sure "feel good", if still extant, will not persist for more than a few days into January of 2000 when the computer failures become all too evident. I'd say the most likely to occur first will be the stock-market crash; a public whose retirement hopes are dashed in the flameout of the mirage of stock-market riches are much more likely to be willing to see Bill Clinton's warts, and may even become more cognizant of the Y2K threat as they look around, with newly-found awareness, for anything else that might go wrong.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:41 - ID#284255)
Tice Market Commentary
A Little Arithmetic Shows Why The Bull Market Can't Continue Forever
All compliments of the Fiendbear

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:46 - ID#318183)
Front Running ?? isn;t that ILLEGAL?? lol THey used the term matching
is there such a thing as "matching" ?? Shuffling the cards? is that an investment term?? lol

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:50 - ID#318183)
just a little humor on a bad company!$n5l$>$n5l$

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:51 - ID#256326)
US stocks
There are a few new comments on the stock market and a new chart at my site. Nothing new on gold other than what I posted here last night.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 05:53 - ID#284255)
@ the burm of the beach
There is a calm, a low and murmurous surf
Beating and curling on warm and golden sand
Silent and dark the trees that line the turf
Of the low dunes where sage green grasses bend

Sea wears her beautiful blue dress
Displayed in sweetest calm simplicity
And quiet the day and still and quiet the sea
All this for you my dearest love, and me

This surely is the Lotus flower land
To sleep and dream with you on golden sand
To play and rest in peace
To wake, to love, and then to sleep again

Yes there are storm wracked seas
And far and distant strands
Where great ships ply their trades
And many far and foreign lands
And fishing fleets - a fantasy
Of men and boats that throng
Far havens and the sea miles long
And many thousand islands of the sea

And there are great wonders
A bright and teeming life
Rich treasure of caverns
Cliffs and populous plains
Hid in the deep waters
Of the seas great mains

But none, not one of these distress
This gentle seas most beautiful blue dress
Nor the still peace, my dearest love
Which we this day
And in this place possess

(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:06 - ID#284255)
RBA governor says Wall Street grossly overvalued
The United States equity market is grossly overvalued and this poses a monetary policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve,
``What I was looking at was the discussions held between one of Greenspan's predecessors - Benjamin Strong - and his Board in the late 1920s, who were facing almost exactly the same situation,''
Courtesy of Donald

(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:09 - ID#284255)
Another profitable goldmine
Kidston quarterly loss widens to A$2 mln

(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:20 - ID#318183)
gaps - gaps nothing but gaps
Gold/XAU and a LOT of gold stocks have left very nice gaps in all the stocks - is this the place for TA??

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:43 - ID#347447)
Nick, All - Our scripture reading for today
"There is no doubt that the desire to curb the stock market boom was a major if not dominating factor in Reserve actions during 1928 and 1929. Those actions clearly failed to stop the stock market boom. But they did exert steady deflationary pressure on the economy. Wholesale prices rose during the second and third quarters of 1928 but declined from then through 1929." "Had the Reserve system directed its policies single mindedly to breaking the stock market boom, it would have refrained from its easing actions in 1927. Instead it would have started its restraining actions then rather than in 1928 and it would have taken more vigorous action than it did in 1928. On the other hand, if it had single mindedly pursued the objective implicit in its 1923 policy statement of promoting stable economic growth, it would have been less restrictive in 1928 than it was and would have permitted both high-powered money and the stock of money to grow at something like their usual secular rates. In the event, it followed a policy that was too easy to break the speculative boom, yet too tight to promote healthy ecobomic growth."

Milton Friedman, "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960"

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:49 - ID#347447)
More from Uncle Miltie...
Irving Fisher reported in 1928 that when ( Fed Governor ) Strong was in Atlantic city to convalesce, "he paced the floor because he found that his colleagues were not raising the rate of rediscount in order to prevent the crash he saw coming."

(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:52 - ID#206358)
Oriental markets directions.....
Pick from the local report:....
..``A weak yen means lower imports from Asia, it means more
competition for Korea, for China, it means
much lower demand generally,'' he said.

``A weaker yen just means less demand from Japan, and less demand
from Japan is just not good for
Asia, plain and simple.''

(Tue Apr 28 1998 06:58 - ID#341189)
40 wk moving average
I have the 40 wk moving av ( wkly closes ) at 307.75. It would be a good sign to stay above this, at least by the end of the week.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:00 - ID#347447)
and finally...
"The economic collapse from 1929 to 1933 has produced much misunderstanding of the twenties. The widespread belief that what goes up must come down and hence also that what goes down must do so because it earlier went up, plus the dramatic stock market boom, have led many to suppose that the US experienced severe inflation before 1929 and the Reserve System served as an engine of it. Nothing could be further from the truth. By 1923 Wholesale prices had recovered only a sixth of their 1920-21 decline. From then until 1929 they fell on the average of 1 percent per year. The cyclical expansion from 1927 to 1929 is one of the very few on record during which prices were a shade lower at the 3 months centered on the peak that at the 3 months centered on the initial trough. The stock of money, too, failed to rise and even fell slightly during most of the expansion - a phenomenon not matched in any prior or subsequent cyclical expansion. Far from being an inflationary decade, the twenties were the reverse. And the Reserve System, far from being an engine of inflation, very likely kept the money stock from rising as much as it would have if gold movements had been allowed to exert their full influence."

Milton Friedman "Monetary History of the United States"

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:01 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton.........................................Hi Jin!
June Gold down 1.40 @ 309.80------------*T

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:02 - ID#347447)
A break in gold below 306 will bring it down to 296.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:11 - ID#24135)
Ian and Sylvia
Yeah I remember them well .. still
have LPs.

Bully Beef
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:11 - ID#259282)
Interest rates... I kind of agree that a hike in rates could control an overpriced market and would
be prudent to do so. That way they could control the free fall phenomenon by raising rates bit by bit.I fear my gold fund will not weather a crash from what I have seen. They didn't in 87' either. Physical may be a different story. Last night an expert conceded he would like to see more traditional P/E ratios. Lets hope for an easy landing in this fiasco and not the bug/windshield scenario. What is more pitiful than a Wall Street wonder pushing his Beamer down the road? Gidday!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:16 - ID#256326)
Mike Sheller
The quotes from Milton Friedman show exactly why the Federal Reserve under Volcker ( after 1984 ) and Greenspan has never been overly restrictive,and why the down cycle of the long wave which we have experienced since 1974 was never as severe as that from 1920. Deflation such as the 1920's and 1930's experienced is the result of a miscalculation and severe tightening. The normal outcome is the mild dis-inflation we have had. The surge of the money supply in recent years reflects the fear of repeating the error of the late 1920's and virtually guarantees a roaring economy and increased gold prices and interest rates in the near future.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:16 - ID#330175)
@ Cape the spring
Hey,it's snowing-------*T

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:17 - ID#341189)
I also don't like that little 3 day island in the XAU sitting up there last week. Donald's .3 sell criterion in the XAU/AU ratio was just about triggered there. But then, this is all very short term stuff. And the longer it takes to back and fill, the healthier this market will become. Don't you think?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:19 - ID#60253)
Mr. RJ,
As RJ, you are known here as a company, not a person! Were you a private citizen, your thoughts find backing from your name only! However, our words as known to all as the "ways of ones employer"! It is the way of the business world, yes? As a broker, you have chosen to represent a company on this forum. Does this company chose these words, and stand it's reputation "behind such"? In my world, no businesses would allow such public representation, as future and present clients would demand better control of thoughts. Indeed, send your writings to the owner of your desk, and ask, "what price do we demand for this advertising to the entire earth"?

Thank you

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:22 - ID#284255)
adv/dec/unc charts
Shows the begining formation of this next wave.
The size of the first part of the impulse is appreciably greater than in the October correction impulse.

Tsunami inbound.
Good for a read

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:25 - ID#318183)
local broker said his firm told him to liquidate all gold stocks ( abx/hm/asa ) their clients just bought instead of high fliers ( msft/yahoo/ etc ) - I think wrong wrong wrong - Has anyone seen the money flow in msft - - very very negative

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:25 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re AYM
I lost your email add. Mine is Conference call today with AYM. Will let you know, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:30 - ID#318183)
I know the future hasn't always predicted the past but doesn't the ZAU go back to the gaps and gap islands pretty quickly? aren't they short term phenoms?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:34 - ID#240120)
Anyone going ?

22 & 23 June 1998, Hotel Rey Juan Carlos I, Barcelona

Whilst gold demand is at record highs, prices have fallen to eighteen and a half year lows - clear indication of the increasing complexities of the market and of the need to gain expert insight.

The prospect of more sales from central bank gold reserves is weighing heavily on market sentiment - whilst price volatility benefits bullion traders and some speculators. Have those producers who have hedged future production made the right judgement or simply capped potential price rises? Does gold's future actually lie in the hands of US hedge funds and CTAs ( commodity trading advisers ) - with 300bn to invest - making sales of 10m ounces in a day on technical indicators?

This year's expert panel of speakers at the 21st Annual FT Gold Conference offers senior executives within the gold business a powerful forum in which to address these core issues and to network with colleagues and clients.


Gold and the Euro

The changing pattern of physical gold flows throughout Asia

The role of the markets

Mining: Facing up to the price

What is the real value of gold shares?

The role of bullion banking in the future

Where are derivatives going?

Recent trends in fund activity



Mr Robert Guy


N M Rothschild & Sons Limited Mr Bobby Godsell

Chief Executive Officer

Anglogold Dr Jessica Cross


Crosswords Research and Consulting

Confirmed Speakers Also Include:

Mr Luis Maria Linde

General Director

Head of the Foreign Department

Bank of Spain Mr R Brett Kebble

Executive Director

Chairman, Gold and Uranium Division

JCI Limited

Dr Rudolf Trink

Head of Treasury, Strategy Division

Austrian National Bank Mr Mark C Barnard

Vice President

Morgan Stanley & Co Inc

Mr Peter Fava

Head of Precious Metals, HSBC

Chairman, LBMA

Head of Precious Metals, HSBC Midland Mr Russell Smith

Head of Marketing


Mr Mark B Keatley

Chief Financial Officer

Ashanti Goldfields Company Limited Mr John M Willson

President and Chief Executive Officer

Placer Dome Inc

Mr Peter K Lalor

Executive Chairman and Managing Director

Sons of Gwalia Ltd Mr Victor Flores

Senior Mining Analyst

Marleau Lemire

Mr Alexander Mintcheff

Managing Director, Global Commodities

The Chase Manhattan Bank Mr Jonathon Martin-Smith

Executive Director

SBC Warburg Dillon Read

Dr Stewart Murray

Chief Executive

Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd Mr Greg Newton


Managed Account Reports ( MAR )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:34 - ID#284255)
Is it a political mania
Old comments that haven't been updated but still valid

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:36 - ID#240120)
Sorry for disjointed posting
I'll get the hang of it one day !

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:49 - ID#347447)
aurophile, carl
AURO: your 7:16 - Thank you very much for corroborating what my own mind was synthsizing from the events outlined during the 1920's and beyond. I always rest easier when your own rich insights enhance and reinforce mine.

CARL: Markets always feature more backing and filling than most anything else. This is the way of nature. It has been noted that children's bones grow in spurts, with much consolidation between bursts of growth. So too do we gain enlightenment, hopefully, as we go along in life, and so too do we lose our powers as we age, in steep selloffs interrupted by periods of "backing and filling." There is much attention focused at this forum on the little ripples of the wave, as well as the large waves themselves. I am one who takes a longer view, and so I can be a bit more objective than some about the fleeting negatives as they come and go. A watched pot never boils. But there is room for all points of view and temperaments, as all are valid parts of the whole. If we all accepted this from one another, there might be less acrimony than was demonstrated of late.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:50 - ID#288369)
@I always dreamed to perform at the Palladium.....
I'm hangin' up these Kitco gloves ....and puttin' on my guitar shoes....yea, hang my pencil from my mouth....and play those yellow metal blues....

See ya' tomorrow. GO GOLDBUGS!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:53 - ID#393224)
Globex S & P +5.10
June gold -1.70 to 309.50
May silver -4.8 to 610.0

Paper up, precious down.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 07:55 - ID#347447)
If you are out there and catch this, I regret having given you any cause to think I was being facetious or whimsical when I asked you who were some of your most respected posters who have left kitco due to irrational exhuberance and sporadic verbal wrestling matches. I was honestly curious. Kitco is like a hearty plant that continues to flourish and flower despite occasional pruning, picking of blossoms, and withering drought. The rains always return to replenish the juices. I realize the objective is to "make money" here, but the true riches may be a little more subjectively defined than a statement of profit and loss. In this regard, I feel I have struck gold.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:00 - ID#341189)
Mike, Your 7:49
Mike, I am blessed to journey among people who are wise such as you and many others here.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:00 - ID#288156)
Did anyone actually SEE this PRelease? or better yet, save it?
21st April 1998
Press statement:
BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific

It is NOT on the BIS site, although it is listed as "news" in two
different places... A reposting would be much appreciated! {:- )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:01 - ID#342315)
Jimsy re chart
It looks good. What stock? Thanx, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:13 - ID#57232)
Corporate image vs private image
ANOTHER: Your comments are to the mark. This site is an international site, and even those who do not represent a company have a responsibility to craft their words with some caution. Americans sometimes do such things to relax -- they tend to be more outspoken than those of other countries -- and it does not necessarily reflect on their competence. The individual you refer to is very good at what he does.

It looks like gold is heading down for a while -- weeks perhaps. But the fundamentals are clearly up -- regardless of the rumors of Swiss selling gold. Any comments about the BIS setting up an office in Hong Kong?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:15 - ID#263379)
ANOTHER "Swiss gold for sale announcement"
Mr. Another, Please provide your insight about the motives, their plan and expected outcome regarding the recent Swiss gold sale announcement. How do you think they analyze and perceive as their analytical vantage point? After all, they must also read ( ANOTHER ) Kitco!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:19 - ID#393224)
China's new Gold pricing strategy
Prices reduced. Small, inefficient mines to close. Smuggling to decrease.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:37 - ID#33024)

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:40 - ID#33024)
if your are comments:

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:41 - ID#153102)
Your incredible research has helped me understand the political alignments affecting the future and use of the politicial metal more than I can express.

As I posted, it was revealed recently that German and American crypto spooks had been diddling with Swiss crypto products for years, compromising the communications of all the clients who relied on them. You may also recall that Clinton made an announcement about authorizing code and digital security door breaking to thwart "terrorist money laundering". The two nations whose currency is not convertible into SDR's by IMF are also the two nations being constantly vilified as terrorist: Iran and Libya. You may also be aware of the allegations that InsLaw software was modified to enable large scale transaction surveillance and that hardware backdoors were built into commercial computer products sold to banks worldwide which enabled data to be retrieved by satellite on demand.

So I think your research on counterdevelopments to these facts of international financial life is most useful as an indicator in understanding the politics of gold. Thanks and please continue.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:43 - ID#340459)
Is above Silver prices correct, 4.885 ?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:44 - ID#317193)
RJ & F*
I apologize for my post of late last night. One to many brewskis'.

I was laughing to myself when doing the post but such is no excuse.

Egos of the male of the species affect our thoughts and words in interesting ways. I shall endeavor to be more "wise" in my future posts.

Time for work. Placing my order for Dec. contracts in about one hour. Just a guess, but what the heck.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:45 - ID#348169)
Sounds Good To Me! Bring It On!
"Future. That period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true and our happinesss is assured." ---Ambrose Bierce, ( 1842-1914 )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:47 - ID#251268)
spot month Gold
acording to cbs marketwatch is trading higher than June,
only 230 or so open interest hmmm definetly seams to be a oremium
for phisical over paper,hmmm

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:47 - ID#252352)
RRX-vse interesting chart
I guess while most gold stocks are in a pause status, there are still some that are being accumualted

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:53 - ID#251268)
and now Gc=j8 seems to be trading with spot,maybe there
wasn't a trade for the day yet,hence the higher price.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 08:57 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re AYM
Email me your phone # , or call and I'll ask George. I don't know why not. With your investment they should be happy to. Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:01 - ID#288156)
Mozel --PROMIS {:-)) !
Thank you. YOUR words mean a great deal.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:02 - ID#358318)
@SDRer__A 08:00 - BIS office in Hong Kong
( "Did anyone actually SEE this PRelease? or better yet, save it?" )

Fooled you- it's not at the BIS web site, but it IS mentioned at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority Web Site - --------

Click Press Releases, see 21 Apr. 1998 :- Hong Kong Selected as BIS's First Overseas Office

or go to -------

Other news reports ( from ) :

TALKING POINT-BIS office seen showing faith in HK
09:32 a.m. Apr 22, 1998 Eastern ( Reuters )

Hong Kong Selected As BIS First Overseas Office
03:11 p.m Apr 22, 1998 Eastern ( Business Wire )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:03 - ID#243166)
Any comments regarding apparent silver collapse to 4.90?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:05 - ID#238295)
Looks like yesterday's stock market dop was just a correction after all. Probably some more to go after this morning's rally, but not too much.

Sharefin: You and I have fundamentally different perspectives on the gold and stock markets. You say the inevitable stock market crash will take gold down with it. I say the stock market will not go down for the count until gold is much higher. And if gold and stocks go down together, stocks will bounce back quickly. Count on it.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:06 - ID#258427)
@Woody...I believe that is in error
Silver futures at 6.11

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:10 - ID#243166)
Thanks. Hope so. I'll try to restart my heart. JUST got into SSC a few days ago.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:18 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The tea leaves are not easy to read this week. Caution is the key word here.

The Toronto Mining Issues McLellan Summation Index only made it to a level of +934 and is now declining. A failure from the +1000 to +2000 level meant trouble, but from +934 is not that clear. I think that some caution is in order as the peaking of the Summation Index is a short term warning.

The Toronto Mining issues hitting new lows is contained to about 2 issues per day. This is exactly what you want to see in a normal correction.

The weekly 2% rising trend line from the last low in Toronto Golds is at 6948 this week. The index closed yesterday at 7470. This trend line usually contains corrections in an on going bull. It can break by a small amount for a day or two, but should not be ignored.

Long term stuff seems to be improving. The 3 month average gold price relative to the 12 month average bottomed below .95 and has turned above that level. This is often the sign of a major trend shift.

Gold broke the 220 Day MA and is now below it again. We have to wait on this one.

I am going to take a little money off the table here to protect my profits.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:18 - ID#218382)
Bart needs a programmer!
Who would be willing to pay for access to this site? It's becoming painfully obvious that it has major technical problems. Witness the current changes in reported silver price. If we paid a small fee, Bart could hire a programmer. I'm losing my confidence in PMs quickly. If the world's most popular PM site has these kinds of problems, it certainly reflects negatively on the true worth of Precious Metals.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:19 - ID#342315)
A currency "backed" by gold is better than one such as US$. However, "backing" by gold is not necessarily "convertibility". I have some trouble looking beyond the foreseeable future to depend on anything less than convertibility. In your reply to me, your phrase..."oil in the ground " as backing to buy much paper "commitment for gold" could mean several things specifically. To me this implies a special kind of ' paper"commitment for gold" '.

Could you please comment more specifically on this paper commitment? many thanx for your effort here, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:26 - ID#434158)
Silver drop
Fired up my trusty PC this AM, checked the silver chart, made a desparate call to my dealer: 5:30 AM his time. He wants to know what kind of nightmare I was having! No, silver is NOT down to 4.90 an ounce. Yesterday there was a similar downward spike in the Palladium chart. Hey, guys, I got a weak heart! At least, I do NOW! What gives? GungaDin

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:27 - ID#342315)
Themissinglink re yours
Christopher Bechtler was a German goldsmith who came to W. N. C. about 1830. He minted coins from local production. U.S. Treasury checked them and let them circulate. Purity of B.'s coins were more than US. There is a very good illustrated hustory of his work and eqp. Maybe you can find on net. At the moment I can't remember details. One piece of eqp was a wooden screw press. Any good Num. ref should include him. If you have trouble let me know. Cheers, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:29 - ID#344308)

'tis time for a peace....let it go..chaos and flux are attendant
and adding to their positions daily...attention animates the
beast....let it go......and the vaporous hooved-one, is gone in an
instant..poof! jlm.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:47 - ID#258427)
Now Quote.Yahoo is Stuck at 9:43
First Bart's Silver, now yahoo...Gremlins...whatz a guy to do??

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:53 - ID#284255)
Old Gold - and peace on Kitco
Yes, you are correct in that we have different perspectives.
I do believe that if we have a crash all paper assets will be revalued.
I doubt that we will be lucky enough to have a bear market without a crash.
And I don't think that a crash is that far away.

Although this mania could be propped up for a while longer.

All of us here have different opinions.
This is the way of the world.
Kitco is the watering-hole
Where we drink and share other opinions.
Where we learn that others
Will always be of differing opinions.

We all need to learn to accept this.
After all, there is plenty of room here.

JTF @words of wisdom
Your comments are to the mark.
"This site is an international site, and even those who do not represent a company have a responsibility to craft their words with some caution."

No truer words spoken here today.

The ability to craft these words
Puts an onus unto the author
Mike S
Your perspective is bounded only by your horizons
And you have visions to see afar.

My respect for you grows

Admirably so.


You style as a mentor
Leaves much to the imagination.

The roots of the oak run deep
And so do yours.

Big Time Tom
(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:54 - ID#212320)
Silver spot price
Sharenet spot prices also show silver at $4.90. Wonder what's going on.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:56 - ID#284255)
Silver - SIK8 -6c @ $6.09

(Tue Apr 28 1998 09:58 - ID#410198)
Silver 6.09 down .05

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:02 - ID#28594)
Trinovant --Many, Many, Many

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:03 - ID#240120)
G o G o l d
G o G o l d

Big Time Tom
(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:03 - ID#212320)
Sharefin, Robnoel_A: Thanks.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:07 - ID#398105)


You appear to floating along on "Cloud Nine". You must always remember that clouds do disperse, perhaps you will come back down to earth with a THUMP !

PRACTICE artificial insemination, keep it in hand !

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo................

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:13 - ID#233199)
@ Steve in _TO Off topic request

Please contac me via e-mail for off topic question.
Steven P. ( )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:14 - ID#375108)
Green Line showing Toronto gold down $4.00 but TSE gold index up slightly... Hi Bretoner...lost yer e-mail address...pls send message...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:20 - ID#280215)
ALL: Help Regarding RJ and ANOTHER's comments.
I apologize in advance because MOST of the time I haven't the foggiest idea what ANOTHER is talking about, not because of the content, but because of the riddles/inuendos/whatever, that he choses to speak in. Usually I figure it out with your help, AFTER you all disect it from the various angles.

He put a post to RJ this morning at 7:19. Could someone enlighten me please. Was this a criticism, compliment or a little of both towards RJ. I haven' the slightest idea. If it is a criticism, I can't believe he is also going to start cat fighting. Could it be that he is also getting fiesty/nervous because gold isn't at 360 yet. Just trying to figure it all out so that I can make some use of it. Thanks in advance!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:26 - ID#233199)
Gold down; Drooy up!

Maybe people are finally getting the point: Buy now while gold is cheap!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:28 - ID#238422)
I agree with you that Another's post on RJ is
absolutely strange and makes no sense. RJ is
an individual, not a company. RJ behaves like
individual and posts his own views. It is in
no way direct advertising of company he works for.

There are two things already posted by Another that
do not match his "created image": his repeated "yes"
thing ( Another is having fun ) and his last post to RJ.

Otherwise, Another is a fine writter.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:29 - ID#342315)
Anybody got a toll free # for this? TIA, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:31 - ID#258427)
DBC has June Silver up .07 at 6.155
lotza bouncing around this morning...but drooy up 1/8 ... need to start accumulating rangy next!!

silver plate
(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:41 - ID#234253)
My take on Another's comments is as follows. In his world, one doesnt make such uninhibited outbursts as RJ does. Rj is also a representative of a business enterprise, therefor his comments reflect on his company as well as on himself. Another is treating Kitcoites as mature, adult folk, worthy of an interchange of mature thoughts and ideas on a diplomatic level. And he is disturbed by these childish tantrums, and rightly so.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:41 - ID#335190)
John Crow - C.D. Howe - Interest Rates - Bonds - Inflation @ Canada
C.D. Howe Institute, is funded by large corporations, banks, investment dealers, life insurance companies, brokerage houses and wealthy individuals, has carried out its lengthy campaign against inflation. The interest rate became the key variable in the question of who won and who lost from inflation. Although the rate was the same for everyone, there was a great difference between how it affected each individual, depending on whether the individual was primarily a creditor or a debtor.

But who were the creditors? Clearly they included wealthy individuals who owned large financial assets. Yet advocates of price stability or zero inflation, as it is sometimes called, often confused the issue by keeping the focus almost exclusively trained on another group of creditors--Senior citizens who had accumulated savings over their lifetime.

Seniors were the baby seals of the inflation debate. Just as the thought of seal pups being clubbed to death rallied support against the Newfoundland seal hunt, the thought of pensioners being robbed of their life savings through inflation rallied support for the anti-inflation crusade.

Although this has helped confuse ordinary citizens about inflation, the financial community seems to be less confused about the issue. Business Week was blunt in describing the situation to its business audience: When the Federal Reserve Board officials meet Nov. 15 ( 1988 ) to consider yet another interest-rate hike, they will carefully weigh the benefits of damping inflation vs. the costs from slowing growth.

They probably wont give more than a fleeting thought to how higher interest rates affect families in different income brackets and actually change the distribution of income in the economy. But they should. The evidence is overwhelming that higher interest rates hurt the middle class a lot more, because it shells out a greater portion of its income in interest payments than do the affluent.

Business Week is really just stating the obvious, although it is a point often left out of the debate in Canada---that high interest rates are kind to creditors and harsh on debtors, and that the affluent tend to be creditors and the less affluent tend to be debtors. Thus, the high interest rates in Canada have given a disproportionate benefit to the rich.

In 1991, Canadians with incomes between $15,000 and $20,000 received interest income averaging $1,500 per person--an amount that largely reflects the interest collected by seniors in this low-income group. But rich Canadians, with incomes over $250,000, enjoyed interest income that year averaging $51,000 per person. The benefit enjoyed by this upper income group was thus thirty-four times the size of that received by the lower income group.

Bay Streets enthusiasm for the Bank of Canadas ( John Crow - Governor ) war on inflation is thus closely linked to its impact on real interest rates. Since Crow began tightening monetary policy in earnest, real interest rates in Canada have gone up to historic levels. In the 1960s, for instance, the real interest rate averaged 3.2 %, Statistics Canada data show.

In the seventies, when inflation was much higher, it fell to 1.2 %. Then in the eighties, as the Bank of Canada tightened its monetary policy in response to inflation, the real interest rate shot up to an average of 6.6 %. But under Crows extreme tightening during the 1990-92 period, the real interest rate went all the way up to 8 %. Although this pattern is found in other advanced countries as well, it has been most pronounced in Canada.

The Canadian real interest rate was above 6 %, for instance, in July 1994. In comparison, France had a real interest rate of 4 %, while the U.S real rate was under 3 % and Japan was under 2 %.

It should be noted that the interests of the business community and the financial community are not always the same when it comes to inflation. While both like the stability of low inflation, the measures that are taken to reduce inflation affect the two communities differently. For the financial community, the war against inflation means high real interest rates, which are very desirable. For business, however, high interest rates pose problems, sluggish growth. On the other hand, business generally likes the way strong anti-inflation measures drive down workers wages.

Whats good for ordinary citizens isnt necessarily good for bondholders. What mattered for most people wasnt preserving the value of their past accumulations of wealth--which most people didnt have anyway--but ensuring an ongoing source of income. What mattered to them was growth and prosperity and a job with a wage high enough to support a family.

But at what price would the closely held accumulations of the past be made widely available for the future ? What would be the real cost of gaining access to that money ? In many ways, this price represents a broad social contract---between the haves and have-nots of society, between finance capital and would-be entrepreneurs. And who would decide the terms of this broad social contract, who would assume this god-like power over society ?

As Paul Volcker, Federal Reserve Board ( U.S. central Banker ) , once quipped about central bankers, We have a haunting fear that someone, someplace may be happy.

Throughout the 1960s John Crow worked as an IMF economist, specializing in Latin America. Crow was promoted to chief of the IMF s North American division, which oversaw Canada. Crow joined the Bank of Canada in 1973.
Became Bank of Canada Governor in 1987. Crows brutal war against inflation --with devastating consequences for the Canadian economy.He was never a hobnobber or a chummy old boy who relied on connections --either at Oxford or in Ottawa. C.D. Howe Institute strongly supported Crow.

"Price Stability"..John Crow and the experts at the Bank of Canada..What could possibly have justified damaging the lives of millions of Canadians who suffered from job losses or the ripple effects of all that unemployment ? Lewis Carroll's phrase "curiouser and curiouser !"

FWIW.......Take Care.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:42 - ID#233199)
Looks like somebocy made a commitment to DROOY

(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:42 - ID#342315) $INDU
They are still pumping the prem. For the last 10 min, it's been over 600 and some over 700. As the price slips, the prem goes up. Too much correlation not to be the ole MANIP. The thing looks too heavy to hold.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:47 - ID#287374)
Looking for an afternoon pop in gold mining stocks. Use the opportunity to hedge your long positions with puts. The gap above will not be closed, and the three-day island will remain above as strong resistance.

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 28 1998 10:52 - ID#430260)
$4.80 silver...
Bart, April Fools is past and, well, you know the rest of the saying. AOL has July silver at $6.16. --AG

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:03 - ID#22956)
THE dollar
YES? The ( US ) Dollar.....why do soooooooo many people want to hold it and yet here ( kitco ) I read, almost everyday, that the US dollar is WORTHless and it will dive soon. Again.....scratching his head.......hmmmm. Damn dollar, why do I bet against thee?? ( ! ) ?
And as for wants to fill the gaps soooooo bad...thar she goes. uh huh. pat myself ( gently ) on the back ;- ) , eh 'the Don'?

go lakers.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:18 - ID#269409)
@ Straddler re ANOTHER
Straddler, re your 10:20 asking re the meaning in ANOTHER's post to RJ. The meaning isn't complex at all, it's quite simple. The meaning in it is that ANOTHER has shown himself once again, as the poetic speaking phony, that he really is.

Obviously he hasn't the slightest clue as to what RJ has posted on this forum, else he wouldn't have the belief that RJ is somehow represnting a group rather than himself. Obviously he has no clue as to the SIMPLE and straightforward meaning, in clear, honest, straighforward posts. Ironic, that he is too shallow in his reading of RJ, a straight shooter, to understand the clear meaning and intent of RJ's posts....yet others here are accused of shallowness for refusing to read volumes of hidden meanings into the nonsensical ramblings of ANOTHER.

There are plenty of excellent minds and contributors on this forum, I read them all....I even read some of ANOTHER's stuff...just to try once again to see if he may have some inside info......apparently he doesn't since his "Big buyer" that would change the Gold market to "Not as before" by March end, and drive Gold to $320-$360 has not emerged.

As to his hidden mystery meanings however, WHO CARES!!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:19 - ID#238295)
Gold stocks flat and POG down over two bucks.Something has gotta give. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen.

Another: This forum should be a sounding board for all opionions -- from extreme bull to extreme bear -- as long as these opinions are expressed in a professional manner and those holding opposing views are not ridiculed or insulted. RJ has indeed made some very good cslls but he fails the latter test utterly. Perhpas he will grow up somedsy. Until he does one can ignore his posts if they offend.

BTW, many here would appreciate your take on Swiss palns to hold a referendum re: selling a good part of their gold reserves.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:22 - ID#266105)
@here we go loopty-loo, here we go loopty-lie

Strad Master ( Question ) ID#250297:
ALL: My wife wants to know if anyone has a recommendation for a good book dealing with business cycles? ( that all the cycles have bitten the dust, of course.


James Grant making the case for the musings of obscure Austrian economist Wilhelm Ropke on the intrinsic boom-bust relationships,
neither of either without the other, seeds of ascendancies and descendencies sown in the inverse. Focuses on poking holes in central bank orthodoxy to thwart or dampen the downside, thus upside prosperity ) .

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:25 - ID#269409)
@ Old Gold
I generally hold you in high esteem George, but on your take re RJs attack posts I disagree completely. There comes a time, when someone's continued ignorant ramblings, and self appointed omnipotence, must be called into the most strident terms.

The issue here is that facts, knowledge, and truth, have been discarded in favor of rhetoric, fantasy, propagandizing, and nonsense. I'll take an arrogant post from a true market insider straight shooter anyday, over the flowery prose of a frustrated wannabee.

Some folks consider it "ungenteel" to call a fool what he is. I consider it stupidity not to. The self appointed Gold Emperor has no clothes and should be exposed for the phony that he is.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:26 - ID#280215)
If that's what he's saying, then I agree about the being mature part and having no need for the cat fighting. But RJ never identified his company. He posts as RJ, not RJ from so and so brokerage house. I disagree about being a representative for his company since we don't know what that company is, and it doesn't hurt them.

I guess the problem is with ANOTHER's way of expressing himself. In this situation, maybe he shouldn't have been taken literally. His "company" comment maybe was meant as a way for him to say that he should act like an adult and not a child as you say. If ANOTHER would simply stop talking in riddles and have his interpreter ( if any ) write complete clear English sentences, then maybe things would be a lot easier. The problem is that with ANOTHER, I don't know what to take literally, and what is a riddle/inuendo.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:32 - ID#287374)
Crystal Ball (premonition) ID#287374:

hello, I am a long time g-bug, and lurker,and wonder if you could help me understand your message re:

" The gap above will not be closed, and the three-day island will remain above as strong resistance.", I am still learning and studying ,hidden messages make it difficult for me, thank you for your anticipated patient !

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:40 - ID#280215)
LGB: Yours of 11:18
I've tried to be open-minded on the ANOTHER issue. I will still read his stuff . But after his RJ post this morning, I've come to the conclusion that the last sentence in your 11:18 post is probably the best advice. Thanks!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:53 - ID#28593)
Puzzle lovers...
BIS statutes, Chapter IV, Management
Art. 27. ( 2 ) Six persons representative of finance, industry or commerce, appointed one each by the Governors of the central banks mentioned in clause ( 1 ) , and being of the same nationality as the Governor who appoints him."

If it is "choosing-up-sides" time, it would be instructive to know what businesses have reached this privledged level. And it won't be an easy
task to discover who, where they are. H E L P!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:53 - ID#269409)
@ F*'s......Gold short squeeze
Hmmmm, Gold getting creamed.... is this what happens in a "squeeze" ?? I must be confused....

"Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 10:44
farfel ( @ALL...please prepare yourselves for a little delight.. ) ID#340302: ...a concerted gold short squeeze is in the works. Try and get on board before the upspike. Gentlemen, you WILL enjoy the ride. Thanks.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:54 - ID#335190)
Stephen Hawking @ Canada
April 28, 1998

Bright idea to bring Hawking to Canada originated over drinks

TORONTO ( CP )  The bright idea to invite the brilliant physicist Stephen Hawking to Canada germinated in a smoky bar last fall with a group of University of Toronto science students.

The astophysicist, crippled by the late stages of Lou Gehrig's disease acknowledged that he has so far failed to find a single set of equations that describe the physical laws governing everything in existence.

"In 1980 I said I thought there was a 50-50 chance of finding a complete unified theory in the next 20 years," Hawking said.

"That's still my estimation but the 20 years begins now," he joked.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:56 - ID#240120)
I care !

(Tue Apr 28 1998 11:59 - ID#358318)
Fed's Kelley on Y2K, economy, 28th April
Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Kelley declined to
comment on reports that the Federal Open Market Committee had changed
its policy stance from neutral to a tightening bias.
"I have no comment" Kelley told reporters after testifying to the
Senate Commerce Committee on the millennium bug.

Kelley said costs associated with addressing the Year 2000
computer problem could trim U.S. growth by 0.1 percentage point
in both 1998 and 1999.

"We have a very strong and dynamic economy" he said.
To induce recession, "you'd have to get to a situation where
people felt this ( disruption ) would be long and prolonged. We
don't anticipate this happening" he said.

Kelley said the Fed would begin testing computer interfaces
with the 13,000 banks it supervises this June, and plans to
ensure that all of those banks' systems are tested by year end.

"The scope of the problem is large and complex" said Sen.
John McCain, chairman of the Commerce Committee.
"Without greater urgency and aggressive management on this Year 2000
issue, both federal agencies and private businesses are at risk
of being unable to provide services or to perform functions that
are critical to their mission."

( Quoted from Reuters and Bloomberg news sources )

Comment: Could it be that you either have a Y2K-resistant strong economy, in which case you need to put up interest rates to stop overheating, or you don't, in which case Y2K could send you into a depression. Or you get it "just right"! The rock and hard place thing?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:08 - ID#28861)
Lihir news

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:09 - ID#224267)
LGB @ squeeze
any thoughts on how long the squeeze will pplay?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:10 - ID#410114)
New Zeland
Any suggestions for New Zeland based newsletters? I am intereted in the NZ share Mkt.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:12 - ID#401460)
ANOTHER (??) Re: RJ ??



(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:14 - ID#273227)
As the world turns - Kitco's soap opera
Could someone explain to me what RJ/Monex does? I thought he was a salesman ( One of his posts claimed he was the largest PL salesman in the world ) . Yet reading the posts lately, it seems that he is a trader ( he is referred to as an insider ) . Even with his fine market calls, I wouldn't call a salesman an insider. I'm not familar with the Monex setup.

Isn't it strange how the full cycles always occur? Yesterday's outbursts by RJ remind me of the first few weeks he posted. He & John H. were the 3-2-5 chanting crowd that got under everyone's skin. Then he changed his style and developed a large fan following. Then he disappeared, leaving his following to wallow in the ethervoid. Now the orginal? ( at least the first ) RJ is back. This time he has a large vocal following to support him.

Tune in anytime - see :

The evolution of Kitco?

What will RJ do next?

How will John H. react?

Will the lemmings ever see with thier eyes? - I know the answer to that one.

FYI - the support for PAASF at $9.5 yesterday was huge. 6-8 MM at the offer all day in size. There was never more then 1 MM ( none SOES ) at the $9.5625 at anytime. The 3 SOES MM were at $9.625 to $9.875 with 500-1000 shares.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:16 - ID#411259)
..... The day is bright, but forget not the night .....

Farfel is a bully.

After being punched once to often

I walked across the school yard.

And stomped him

This is the only way to deal with some bullies

I will do it again if he persists.

For those that think I've flipped my wig

Read the deadly precision

No outburst this

But rather a hit

Another word from another ANOTHER

Again more smoke than substance

I am but mad north-north-west:

when the wind is southerly

I know a hawk from a handsaw.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:18 - ID#251268)
short squeeze?
april comex open interest 232 and droping?for what ever reason
there is not going to be a S.S. on comex until July at the earliest,
still seem to remember same kind of start last week and it changed
in a hurry and if the kico bear barometer is working well~~~~~~~~~
hmmm its not over until ?getting more calls

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:20 - ID#411259)
..... More to the point .....

If I may repost. This IS the heart of the matter after all:

Good Night Far Down Feller

After an evening such as this, perhaps you may glimpse your face a little clearer

I found your tactics an easy fit and at once turned them on you

You may now have some feeling of the view of the boot

From the eye of the ant

I did naught to you but that which you offered me

Your words strident base and boring

Mine own lyrical and cunning

Outshines your dull wit

Should you wake to find your spirit renewed

Rather than spirit healed

And should once again treat others

As you have been treated here

You will fall far, sad fellow


(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW Got out of drooy waiting to come down at support 3 even.
Rangy is the best bet if to be on the long side.
Island overhead doesn't bode well in the short term.
Gold is still in a friendly cycle ,the XAU might come down
with the rest of the market.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:29 - ID#317193)
What-dumb to buy Dec contracts
Maybe. Peace to all with nay a cross word. Tom

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:35 - ID#341189)
Re your question to CB. He/she apparently isn't on. If you will go to the following site ( daily chart of the XAU ) you will notice three bars representing last Wed-Fri which are sitting on top of 90 with a small gap beneath them. This is known as an island and is not a good sign, although this one is mighty tiny and probably of only very short term sigmificance. ( IMHO )$xau.x&time_period=Daily&bars=356?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Daily

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:36 - ID#20748)
Straddler: Another was questioning if RJ's employers would approve of his posts on this forum.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:39 - ID#342376)
gold stocks holding up very well........
SouthWestern Gold is up over 12%! RJ- Did you go to bed at all?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:40 - ID#339274)
"Heat not a furnace for your foe so hot that it do singe thyself"

William Shakespeare

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:41 - ID#20748)
Kuston and Bart: From his posts we know RJ works for Monex, but should he be allowed to use this forum to attract customers.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 20:10
RJ ( ..... RJ e-mail ..... ) ID#411150:

For the many who have asked, I can be found at

Some of us live in the light.

Some hide in the dark.

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 20:08
RJ ( ) ID#411150:

223 -

Only sell 10 oz bars. About $19 now. The funny thing is, the spread on
one ounce coins is only about $17. I know of nobody in the world who
can beat my price on platinum.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:43 - ID#269409)
@ RJ Farfel
Watch it RJ, Kuston and other such neurological wonder followers will now come to F* word's defense..after all...consider this post of objective, "egntlemanly" discourse by the F* word....

"Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 00:03
farfel ( it a glee club for gold? ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

".......when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor. Thanks. F*

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:45 - ID#269409)
@ NJ....Ads on Kitco
You ought not take posts out of the larger context in which they were made...namely, the insicerity of "Wannabee's" constantly posting about how they're going to "buy more" when they don't buy any at all..... even at the best possible prices.....

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:46 - ID#286279)
Yes, and the format changed; fascinating.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:48 - ID#280215)
I would agree that that could be another vaild interpretation. My point again, however, is that ANOTHER seems to possess a decent capability to write English. If he has interpreters, or is more than one person ( as has been intimated in the past due to different writing styles at times ) , he could easily have written, "Do you think the person who employs you would approve of your words on this forum?"

That was easy enough, even for a person who is just learning English. If he ( ANOTHER ) wants people to respect him and not call him a phony, etc.. then he simply needs to knock off the stupid riddles and get to the point.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:48 - ID#411259)
..... RJ = RJ .....

I represent none but myself on these pages

I no longer post market opinion

I called my boss at home last evening

Told him to check out this flaying

For one so richly deserving

He got a kick out of it

Perhaps Farfel will call my boss

And whine "RJ is not playing fair"

"He is doing to me, what I did to him"

"But he is doing it better"

"Oh please save my poor befuddled self"

"From this mean mean mean mean man"

Simple fact is, I'm good at what I do

And that, my boss sees

And unless farfel sends a check

His opinion is of no interest to my colleagues


(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:49 - ID#333127)
gold stks
Impressed with gold stks hanging on today, I'm going to buy more. Anybody know why ECO moved up last wk?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:53 - ID#345176)
Kinross news - will raise $100 mil. FARFEL, your views please..

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:56 - ID#269409)
@ F* word posts...... full context for fairness
Previous F* word repost only showed the final paragraph. For the full context, the full unabridged, unedited, version...with commentary provided of course.....below is the full post.

Following are the fair, balanced, gentlemanly, open minded, and objective comments of the omnipotent Gold analyst, "F* Word". ( I say F* word, because so many of his posts were signed F* the Unpronounceable ...thus I want to give him the reverence he so desires when he takes on the self appointed mantle of having an unpronounceable name...something only God himself had previously laid claim to )

Comments in parenthesis, are all, unfortunately, the work of my own humble hand...LGB. All other comments are those of the F* word fellow

Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 00:03
farfel ( it a glee club for gold? ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

A certain poster ( Hmmmm, I thought this guy F* word claims he always calls other posters by their Kitco name out of respect? ) recently disparaged this forum as evolving into nothing more than a glee club for gold. ( Well...only when a certain F* fella dominates the forum... ) The central is imperative to hear the opposing point of view, i.e., the derogatory perspective of gold's
value, in order to achieve balance and proper perspective. ( Hmmm, I disagree with the characterization here, the FACTUAL perspective would be a lot more accurate. The actual history, relative performance, current prospects for future performance. As a GoldBug, AND a believer in the achievements of the economic age, I cant imagine having an Anti Gold view any more than an Anti US economy view )

Personally, I do not believe that Kitco's strong bias in favor of gold or silver is a a bad thing. ( Hmmmm....methinks ANY strong bias will prevent good judgment, not only in matters Gold investment related, but in ALL areas of life ) .....Why? Because today, we live in a world in which gold is disparaged routinely in virtually all mainstream media...or it is
ignored completely. ( I see, if phony propagandizing and bias exists in the mainstream media, then the proper response is to eliminate truth, objectivity, and honest evaluation in other forums...such as this one....I get it now.... )

What is so wrong about the tendentious nature of this forum then? Why is it perfectly acceptable for a media outlet such as CNBC to blast its frequent, total, chauvinistic support of the supremacy of equities and bonds and the irrelevance of gold in a modern economy ...yet somehow various Kitcoites feel it is imperative for this forum to present a fair balance between goldbugs and their pro-equities/anti-gold poster antagonists...and the very same Kitcoites become oh-so indignant if they perceive the argumentation is balancing too far in favor of gold?? ( Obviously this guy doesnt read major Kitco peer stock type forums such as the SI thread, where bearish, objective, and balanced sentiments abound in huge measure )

What is wrong with having another strong mouthpiece for gold such as the Kitco Forum in this "paper-pyramid-economy-is-OK-by-me" world? ( What's wrong with it is that this is supposed to be an investor/analyst forum, not a Nazi fascist mentality propaganda mouthpiece for one view )

God only knows the World Gold Council is doing a miserable job of propagandizing ( Glad the F* fellow realizes EXACTLY what it is hes trying to promote here...propagandizing ) gold's merits. So, what crime exists in allowing a preponderance of goldbug intellectuals ( you're way tooo kind to yourself sir )
to present their views over a non-mainstream internet site such as this and offer some token resistance to the mountain of anti-gold nonsense out there? ( Perhaps the crime that exists in such a that some of us still have a love for truth, honesty, facts, and reality in making a judgment as to both sides of any it economic, Gold related, political, spiritual, socio-economic......I know, were stupid ideologues and all for holding this view...yet it persists...... )

Balance...schmalance. ( F* word... this should be your mantra for all time )

I welcome anti-gold exponents to post on this forum...I beg them to do so. ( Uh huh ) However, be warned...there are those here ( myself included ) who will dispute your anti-gold logic until it crumbles into the nonsensical gibberish it really is. ( Funny that those who look at both the up AND down side of Gold are called anti....where have we seen this kind of thinking before? )

If that should happen and you run away, "crying to mama," then do not blame us!! Furthermore, let no other Kitcoites scold those of us who "take no prisoners" in such argumentation either. The pro-gold/anti-gold schism is not a mere is nothing less than a cultural war. Despite the ostensible appearance of pandemic ( You sure you know what this means? ) prosperity, this country is at war with itself. Anyone who would deny this is viewing the world through blinders. ( This guy have a messianic leader complex or what? Gold is beautiful and has some noble metallurgical properties, and a rich history of societal valuation....but its not exactly the spiritual be all and end all of the Universe... )

There are many in this world and on this forum who have built their houses upon foundations of gold and silver...who clothe their families out of the fabrics of gold and silver...who feed their families from plates of gold and ( not in the last 2 decades they havent..... )

...when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor. ( Now we finally see the true nature of the gentlemanly F* person ...and how open and objective a guy he is when it comes to Gold analysis....yes we can assess the worth of all his words in this very telling context )


( Final LGB the words Orwell, fascist, fanatic, free speech, objectivity, balance, propaganda ,or frightening have any meaning in this mans vast vocabulary? )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:57 - ID#286279)
My partner and I agree 100% that the customer is the boss.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 12:57 - ID#411259)
..... The whole truth .....

Disingenuous NJ -

I don't know who you are but we will now play too, yes"

Your post below decries my response to 223.

Yes, response. You found it convenient to not repost the inquiry.

Perhaps an oversight. We will correct it here, yes?

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 20:03

223 ( FOOD FIGHT! ) ID#26669:

Bodes for a dull market? Remains to be seen. RJ, if you can tear yourself away from throwing that strawberry jello, and chocolate pie could you tell me what is your company's spread for buy/sell on englehard 1 oz. palladium bars. ( Only asked this after The Bart has remained silent on a similar issue for so long the exact question was forgotten. )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:00 - ID#408236)
@ALL: The nasty rhetoric is heating up here on kitco. Please relent.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion. I find it disturbing to hear intelligent, well-educated human beings heaping abuse on each other when
there can be no physical issue. Perhaps we should generate a Kitco abuse index and see if it correlates to downward moves in the POG. We could have moving averages, stochastic analysis, and verbage/blood pressure indexes. This would at least keep the chartists busy enough to lay off the supply/demand fundamentalists. IMHO

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:00 - ID#273227)
the ether world
RJ, I'm not anywhere near your skill level in the use of words. But I would like to point out something. Here in the ether-world, the words bully and stomped don't carry the same impact as in the real world. I would argue that the words don't even have the same meaning.


A bully in the ether-world is usually someone new to the net or they haven't learned how to open doors with their eyes. These are the ones who drive the contributors away. Every place on the net has some of these. They never go away, the spots they wear rarely change. They are easy to identify, they account for a majority of the wasted bandwidth.

The Stomping as you used it, just doesn't exist in this world. Bart tried it, John H. is still here. The 'stompee' never goes aways - usually the 'stomper' does.

I have the same feeling towards some posters here that you have ( they are different posters though ) , ignoring them is my only recourse. This is a pull universe, the ways of a push universe won't work here. Someone really needs to write a book about this.

Do you see alot of support for silver at these prices? Is this the floor? Now that the Duma has straighten up, are we going to see $500 PL this year? I am in agreement with the earlier poster that was worried about the PA/PL ration pointing to weak PL. Sorry not to be able to credit the correct poster. I keep remembering the Pl that was dumped on the market in December, has the market really recovered from that?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:01 - ID#410198)
All,I was not in the food fight yesterday,however I was fighting the good fight with liberals on
Free Republic,I got trashed when I jumped on ANOTHER when he mentioned metric ton sales of gold using 2nd.LME fix,I've been in the gold busness a loooooooong time,these deals without exception are for RJ and his company Monex,as a competitor let me say Monex has been around longer than any other company I know and in the same location,it withstood goverment scrutiny in the 80's when there was a witch hunt for leverage gold dealers,they have have done good things and dumb,but who hasn' thing they have done is promote gold and silver something we all in the gold busness benifit from.....I guess my point is another ANOTHERS attack on Monix/RJ is again misguided

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:05 - ID#347447)
As to books on the "business cycle" - I would recommend to Mrs Strad "The Theory of Money and Credit, " by Ludwig Von Mises, and "Financial Astrology," by LCdr. David Williams ( Ret. ) The first is a classic investigation of from whence the business cycle arises as regards, well, money and credit, just as the title suggests. The role of gold, as money, is of course treated. The second relates historical business cycles ( with LOTS of wonderful charts and graphs and notations ) to cyclical astronomical phenomena, and other natural cyclical occurrances. Very good books, the both of them. The gold chart going back to the 1300's in Williams' book is worth the price of both!

And,finally, there is my favorite economic treatise of all - "Man, Economy, and State." Murray Rothbard the author ( Author! Author! ) This treatise, this magnum opus, on free market pure economics as it really is should be required reading in every highschool and college economics class ( along with mandatory time spent at kitco ) . I am sure there are a number of less dense books than these three, but few so providing of such a broad scope and perspective over the things from which business cycles arise.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:05 - ID#273227)
RJ - opinions
I didn't know you stopped posting opinions. Sorry for asking.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:09 - ID#26669)
NJ: in the post you mentioned RJ didn't solicit.
IMHO He was answering a specific question I had about his buy/sell spread of palladium. Which I admit is a touchy subject right now since palladium is apparantly very thinly traded among private citizens and there is little if any info available on private sector markets.

IMHO According info on the Kitco Website ( unless its been changed today ) Kitco isn't market making in palladium ingots, so how can RJ be competing by answering questions about his products? But if you can do so I'm all ears because the basic question has never been answered to my satisfaction re 1 ounce bars.

BTW, I've noticed the tone of the discussion group has taken another nosedive since the person I'm shunning has resurfaced in all his twisted glory. Lowest common denominator I guess.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:09 - ID#57232)
Observations about the markets -- not a major correction this time
All: There are several items that make me wonder just how strong this 'ping' will be:

1 ) Today the NYSE has 3 ups for 1 down.

2 ) Yesterday the markets rebounded up slightly at the end of the day, instead of falling through the floor.

3 ) Computer stocks are the market flagships -- Hewlett- Packard, Intel , IBM, and they are very strong right now -- having weathered well the bearish mood of yesterday.

It is hard to believe that we are heading for a crash or even a correction in the next few days when the market flagships are doing so well. It will take some really bad news to bring down these ebullient markets for months, at least, as long as computer stocks earnings reports remain at least as good as expected.

With regard to gold and gold stocks, I think the interest rate hike threat ( or Swiss gold sales threat ) enhanced a cyclical gold/gold equities downturn. Very clever timing of AG if he engineered this. Mike Stewart's comments this am should be taken seriously. In my opinion, once the gold equity investors see the equity bull recover, and interest rates do not in fact increase, then our gold rally will recover. It is not dead yet.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:13 - ID#254269)
Demand for Jekyll Island
Went to my local library over the weekend to see if they had a copy of this book and found out that they do. That's the good news. Bad news is that someone had it checked out and I had to put a "hold" on it, so that I can get it when it comes back. Which Kitcoite has it out ?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:14 - ID#269409)
@ Rhody
Sometimes spirited, strongly worded dialogue is appropriate. This is one of those times.....

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:15 - ID#269409)
For Kinross fans
Tuesday April 28, 12:27 pm Eastern Time

Kinross Gold plans 100 mln equity issue

ZURICH, April 28 ( Reuters ) - Canada's Kinross Gold Corp ( K.TO - news ) plans a $100 million equity issue later this year
once its merger with U.S.-based producer AMAX Gold Inc ( AU - news ) is complete, Kinross Chairman and CEO Robert
Buchan said on Tuesday.

``Some time in the second half of the year, I would like to do a $100 million, fully marketed, equity issue,'' Buchan told a gold
mining industry conference.

He said plans for the Kinross merger with AMAX, which would make the combine the fifth largest North American producer
in terms of capitalisation, were proceeding smoothly.

``The trend is bigger is better. I do believe it's the logical way to go. There are going to be fewer and larger gold companies,''
Buchan said.

He added that his objective was to ``register on the radar'' on the thousands of non-gold investment funds in the United States.

The new company will run three core mines at Hoyle Pond in Ontario, Canada, Fort Knox in Alaska and Kubaka in the
Russian Far East, with the latter presenting perhaps the greatest challenge given the uncertainties of operating in Russia.

``I would not suggest that it's not a challenge ( operating in Russia ) ,'' Buchan said.

``It's a part of the world I think every mining company is terrified to be in and terrified not to be in,'' he said.

Mining analyst Roger Chaplin of brokers T.Hoare and Co in London said in late February that the planned Kinross/AMAX
merger made some sense but questioned the scope for cost savings given the limited synergies between the companies'

He classed the stocks as worthy of a ``hold'' recommendation, questioning the size of debt, the potential to maintain annual
gold production at 1.2 million ounces a year but highlighting the three core mines as a positive point

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:16 - ID#347447)
Perhaps in a day, hopefully coming in the future, when man returns to investigate the collected metaphysical wisdom of his past, and the brilliant research in that direction done by some moderns since the 19th century, wonderful minds like Mr Hawkings' will be even better prepared to make the cognitive leaps the passion for knowledge impels. It was not for nothing that Newton and Einstein were both occultists ( in the benign and grand metaphysical sense, of course ) and translated many of the metaphysical principles they were exposed to into the parallels of activity in the physical realm. While I admit to the colossal hubris in ever thinking, for an instant, I could impart anything of value to this man, I'd nevertheless love to sit down and chat with Steve.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:16 - ID#228100)
Trinovant - Thanks for posting Kelleys Y2K comments
All banking systems tested by year end? Even if they meet that date ( and they wont ) it will be too late. Someone will have to design, construct, and implement Y2K fixes. Some components will need to be replaced, some will need upgrading, and some will need to be fixed. After each change, the system will require testing once again.

What everyone seems to be saying is: We need seven MORE months to test and find the Y2K problems, and then well fix them and re-test them in the next twelve months.

Its exactly the same as getting your car fixed. Finding exactly whats wrong is usually a simple process. It always requires much more work to implement a fix.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:17 - ID#298259)
XAU...starting a move to the upside?
My gold equity holdings seem to be hanging in there...right along with me.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:17 - ID#411259)
..... ? .....

Cappuccino time over. The boys in New York will start kicking this market around a bit in a few minutes.

Perhaps Bart will attest.

I have sent business his way.

Other readers of this forum will also attest.

I sent them to Bart to buy gold and platinum.

This is true.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:19 - ID#273227)
223 - I've noticed this also
223 - I don't know the details of your situation, but I've believed the lowest common denominator theory for months. Its been proven here at Kitco more then once now.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:22 - ID#286279)
This just came in. These things take time, sorry.

1. Ordinary Salt ( NaCl ) produced at a factory ( for cooking )
1kg.pack \107.

2. Refined Salt ( Table Salt )
1 " \126.

3. Natural Salt ( produced from sea water in some different
places in Japan ) . This includes bitter and minerals, etc.
I think this salt is for cooking.
1 kg.pack \240 - \300

Yokkaichi, Japan, 27th April

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:24 - ID#269409)
Robnoel, your 13:01...may I say "Amen". Well reasoned post. I've purchased from Monex in the past, as have many others. Certainly reputable.

However, in any case, it's obvious to all but a complete moron, that RJ posts's NOT as an agent for Monex, but as an individual, as is his right, and the right of everyone else who posts here.

For myself, speaking as an individual who operates a Numismatic and precious metals coin business on the side, I have found a laughable irony and kinship with RJ, when folks make accuations that I am somehow trying to profit from some nefarious "agenda" when looking at precious meatls with a degree of objectivity.

Like many here, I currently hold a large percentage of my net worth in PM's, and not only that, but I also will profit much more in my side coin business, in an "up" Gold market than a "down" one. Yet any balanced objective approach on my part, as to Gold's past/present/future direction and performance, is suspect as being straight from some scripted, sheeplike, anti Gold, mainstream press, One world CB banker orchestrated conspiracy!!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:27 - ID#212197)
@Avalon: "The Creature of Jekyll Island"
Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 13:13
Avalon ( Demand for Jekyll Island ) ID#254269:
You wrote: "Went to my local library over the weekend to see if they had a copy of this book and found out that they do. That's the good news. Bad news is that someone had it checked out and I had to put a "hold" on it, so that I can get it when it comes back. Which Kitcoite has it out ?"

Just call this number: 1-800-595-6596 AMERICAN MEDIA
That's how I got my copy. They sell it for $19.50 but it is worth it's weight in gold ( after the big bull shot it's price through the roof! )
Please let me know if your order was successfully received.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:30 - ID#240120)
Dow Jones in negative territory again
Dow Jones 8915.9 -1.74

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:31 - ID#269409)
@ Jeremy
No, actually DOW is up 21 and Nasdaq up 12....

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:31 - ID#57232)
We need nore posters with non-western backgrounds
All: There is much discussion today about interpretation of posters with non-western backgrounds. A literal interpretation of a post may be misleading. Also -- the words used tend to make these posts cryptic, mysterious and confusing.

I think you all know which individuals I am referring to. However, these posts are often the most illuminating as they come from cultures foreign to our own. Just think about how much more we would lean about the world around us if we could have the insight of more posters such as these! We need more from China and Japan for example.

And, I am sorry to say that many Americans have very poor records at even attempting to converse in a foreign language, even if it is European. This is part of the problem that we Americans are having right now with the rest of the human world. Perhaps we would not ignore our foreign trade deficits if we were more international as a country.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:34 - ID#335190)
Zero Inflation - Great Canadian Disinflation - "Sacrifice Ratio" @ Bank of Canada Policies.
Shooting The Hippo ( Death By Deficit and Other Canadian Myths ) By Linda McQuaig. Author of the Wealthy Banker's Wife.

A Must Read for Canadian's. Mr. Greenspan told the banking committee that the Federal Reserve was not experimenting with the USofA economy. He stated a truth, he in fact has others doing the job for the FRB, by having Canadian lackeys do the experimenting in Canada, a little R&D eh!

"We are tinkering with nothing more than the human greed impulse"

"It is important, then to maintain enough "slack" in labour markets, but just how much is enough? That depends on your vantage point. If you'r unemployed or in fear of being unemployed, the less "slack" the better.
On the other hand, if you are a Bank economist, whose career has been devoted to controlling inflation, then you will tend to want more "slack" and you will probably not be disturbed by high levels of unemployment.

Indeed, those levels may seem fine to you. Gideon Rosenbluth, an economist at the University of British Columbia, suggests that Bank economists and their academic supporters are suffering from a syndrome that he has dubbed "slack denial".

To them, high unemployment rates do not represent unnecessary slack. After all, those unemployed people are serving a useful purpose; they are lambs being sacrificed to the god of inflation control."

"What enthuses all these bankers about unemployment is the disciplinary effects it has on wage demands and therefore inflation. This disciplining of labour has some important ramifications. In the ongoing power struggle between employers and employees, it clearly strengthens the hand of employers."

" This explains why many business people are supportive of the zero inflation goal, even though the accompanying higher interest rates mean higher costs for their businesses and even perhaps fewer sales in the resulting recession."

"The upside, however, is that they will be able to count on a weak and docile labour force, which will be more flexible and willing to work for less than before. This is very important, since labour costs account for the bulk of the operating expenses of most businesses."

"In this light, it is easy to see why the business community is so keen to reduce unemployment insurance and welfare benefits. These social systems are support mechanisms that prevent workers from feeling too desperate in the face of mounting unemployment; they offer a net underneath frightened workers."

"Without that net, faced with the possibility of even greater hardship and want for themselves and their families, workers would be more docile still. Selody ( Bank of Canada ) and others refer to these support systems--these lifelines to desperate workers--as "labour market rigidities."

"Perhaps the clearest indication of the importance tight-money supporters attach to unemployment is a neat little concept they call the NAIRU. The NAIRU, which stands for "the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment," is a measure of the amount of unemployment they consider necessary in order to prevent inflation. "

"The NAIRU thus reflects the notion that a certain level of unemployment isn't just an unfortunate development; rather, it is a necessity, a KEY TOOL for controlling inflation."

FWIW........Take Care

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:34 - ID#269409)
@ JTF,...... I would maintain that there's a BIG difference between trying to learn from someone that is from a foreign culture...

and trying to learn from someone who very obviously "EFFECTS" or "AFFECTS" a linguistic style of mysterious, riddle speaking, poetry. Just not the same thing in my book.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:35 - ID#26669)
I've asked here a few times about this subject and to my recollection there have been other posters feeling around in the dark too, wondering just exactly how thinly traded is physical palladium. IMHO

The story is that coin and bullion dealers get really tense when asked. One fellow I've done business with over 15 years and who usually has really reasonable prices for gold, silver and platinum products gave me a totally outrageous $30 over spot sell price and 8 to 12 week shipping back when the price was still in the $140 range. IMHO

Then if you look at RJ saying he only sells 10 ounce bars, Kitco only advertising casting grain and the big jewelry suppliers not even stocking it. My dentist can't get it, but I've not personally called his dental supply dealer to get the details. IMHO

Re the lowest common denominator issue I believe that I'll just continue to try to avoid nastiness as much as my black little heart will allow. IMHO

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:35 - ID#254269)
@ Alberich_A; Thanks for your 13.27. The unspoken point of my post was that I
was a little surprised by two things. Firstly, I was actually surpirised to see that my library ( suburban library in major city ) had a copy, but what really surprised me was that it ( the one copy ) was "out", as it is probably not a widely read book. Again, thanks for your 13.27.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:39 - ID#20135)
We ask how can this be with the price of gold?
Let us look at the past week. Gold ( and Pm's ) have gone through a tot of gyrations. Just a few days ago gold was pushing up strongly and now it is slipping.

Well, on Monday April 20th comex eligible gold stocks were at 169,237and paper gold traded 1.5 million ounces. Yesterday comex eligible gold stocks were 167,035 and paper gold traded 3.7 million ounces. In the intervening 4 days paper gold traded 14.35 MILLION PAPER OUNCES and the eligible gold stocks changed NOT ONE OUNCE.

To make a long story short at the end of this period where gold has "moved off its highs" comex eligible stocks have fallen. This is a paper driven market, REAL bullion is not being used. They are using paper prices to manipulate actual prices. AS stocks continue to fall this will become a LARGER problem.

Look at the fundamentals, watch out the technicals are being manipulated at this inflection point for gold. BUY gold bullion, take delivery and hold onto it.



Date: Mon Apr 27 1998

475,204 0 0 0 2,202 477,406
169,237 0 0 0 -2,202 167,035
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 16:33

Gold 37,000
Silver 29,000
H.G. Copper 25,000

warehouse stocks:

475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441


Gold 17,500
Silver 19,000
H.G. Copper 20,000

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441


Gold 36,000
Silver 17,000
H.G. Copper 20,000

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441


Gold 55,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 15,000

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

480,552 0 5,348 -5,348 0 475,204
159,146 10,091 0 10,091 0 169,237
639,698 10,091 5,348 4,743 0 644,441


Gold 35,000
Silver 21,000
H.G. Copper 13,000

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce

480,552 0 5,348 -5,348 0 475,204
159,146 10,091 0 10,091 0 169,237
639,698 10,091 5,348 4,743 0 644,441


Gold 15,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 6,500

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:39 - ID#240120)
Re: Dow Jones Index. Are you sure ?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:45 - ID#410198)
LGB,Thanks,after my bout with liberals yesterday my pencil is sharp...heres a URL thats interesting

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:46 - ID#335190)
Mike Sheller @ 13:16
My feelings exactly. All I could add, would be the three of us.
Thanks, Take care

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:48 - ID#288140)
An everyday, straight forward business message from my trusted Japanese correspondent is often unintentionally cryptic. He finally got email, so it is easier to clear up confusion these days.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:50 - ID#433172)
jr. gold stocks
I've been lurking for a few months and I must say I've had many a good laugh,and found a lot of interesting information here. I've been investing in Canadian Jrs, but I've just hit a snag. In last weeks Stockwatch "news", ( had to wait a week to post ) for example;
CHI selling for .60/share making private placement for .48, 1M + shares
BUA @ .30/ share private placing @ .20, 2.125 M shares
RKR @ .51 placing @ .30 1.6 M shares
PNW @ 1.70 placing to some luckey party 1.2 M @ .52/share

I've noticed in some of the stocks i bought the prices have dipped with concomittant insider trading. You can call due diligence but what can a person find out from a computer? Nothing that can't be cooked.

I've crawled into a few holes in my life to see what was there, and this gold mine thing I'm finding mostly bullshit, could it be that is where the gold bull is hiding?

Seems to me this forum is and should be a level field, except for intellect and experience there isn't any high ground. I enjoy the conflicts and do't mind negative comment. R.J. calling out Farfell was literature in my view, I'm looking forward to the response. Another reads like some anemic feudal lord, he might know, but then again, maybe he knows not? No?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:51 - ID#240170)
an Ode to Kitcoites
I decided to write an Ode to Kitcoites.

As I gaze on the HORIZON of posters ( Li ) HIR, I REAlly believe we need HARMONY on this site and must allow for a wide RANGY of opinions. Have a COEUR and refrain from HECLAing anyone. Please do not BARRICKade yourself behind your own opinions. A BATTLE MOUNTed on this site should be regarded as an ABERation. Let cyberspace ECHO with the voices of all. Do not let dissension ( Mira ) MAR the fellowship amongst all the posters as this is a PRIME RESOURCE for up to date information on GOLD ( en ) , KNIGHT and day. Do not be VENGFul towards those who differ in opinion. Let us discuss the GLAMour of Gold. We need not scrutinise each word with the eye of an EAGLE. We all have a ( Home ) STAKE in the soaring of POG. And as it rises, while ALTArnative assets drop into a ROYAL CANYON, such a BEMA joy shall radiate from us and create a CROWN around our heads as we plan to bequeath our CORNOCUPIA to our DYNASTY and to our KIN ( ross ) . OAKy.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:52 - ID#212197)
Y2K: A certain Dose of Relaxation... far as the telecommunication possibilities are concerned.

There are two low orbit satellite systems in the making which will provide worldwide phone service and ( as far as I know, but I'm not completely sure yet.. ) data transmission service. Phone is already a lot, but data are imporatant for banking communications.

These two systems are:

1 ) Iridium, developed by Motorola and scheduled to provide service from October 1998 on.
2 ) Globalstar, which is scheduled for January/February 1999. This company has in the meantime 103 countries in it's camp. It has recently signed an agreement with China, that Chinasat will be its only distributor in China.

Low orbit satellites have a relative speed to the rotation of the earth.
That means, they require antennas which stay focused on them by moving with thh satellite movement. The Iridium network will have over 60 low Earth orbit ( LEO ) satellites circling around the earth north - south.

The geostationary satellites from Panamsat, INTELSAT, ORION, Hughes, e.t.c. areinone and the same orbit over the aequator, in a distance of about 23,000 miles, which is the distance to keep them into one orbital location. The antennas always point to only one spot.

Until very recently, I was afraid the world wide telephone networks would have a break down, and I still think its a big, big question mark if they can become Y2K compliant, because they cannot be tested.

But bow, with this information, I think there will be a revolution in telecomunication in the making. these newcomers will guarantee Y2K compliancy. If they do, what I think they will, or else they won't fly, they will jumpstart into a big business success.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:52 - ID#246224)
Trinovant@11:59 re: Kelley's comments
Fed's Kelley on Y2K, economy, 28th April

Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Kelley .. told reporters after testifying to the Senate Commerce Committee on the millennium bug .. said costs associated with addressing the Year 2000 computer problem could trim U.S. growth by 0.1 percentage point in both 1998 and 1999.

"We have a very strong and dynamic economy" he said.
To induce recession, "you'd have to get to a situation where
people felt this ( disruption ) would be long and prolonged. We
don't anticipate this happening" he said.

Kelley said the Fed would begin testing computer interfaces
with the 13,000 banks it supervises this June, and plans to
ensure that all of those banks' systems are tested by year end.


"You'd have to get to a situation [to go into recession prior to 1/1/2000] where people felt this ( disruption ) would be long and prolonged. We don't anticipate this happening"


Look at these two sentences carefully. Read them about 10 times deliberately and slowly. This is one of the few statements which reveals the Administration's attitude and plans about Y2K and ( not ) preparing the American Public and the world for this catastrophy.

My take is this: the Fed and the Executive branch know EXACTLY that this is a very, very bad situation. They have decided that they will NOT inform the public or provide substantive leadership ( such as we are seeing in Britian and Australia ) . They will be working like crazy to ensure that the government can function in some way after the fact. They can only do this if they are not competing with the citizenry for resources. So they will assure an information blackout and some window dressing around the issue.

They are willing to see the deaths of millions of us to starvation and violence through a lack of preparation than to lose control or power.

I understand that the problems of panic are difficult to manage. Once people feel a lack of stability they will grab at any available resources. Part of government's function is to assure public order and safety. Unfortunately we are way in over our heads on this one. There will be 260 million or so Americans wondering why their leaders deceived them so thoroughly as to not allow them the decency of exercising their own responsibilities to their families. The word 'government' will be an epithet and a curse.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:55 - ID#57232)
Question for you about Comex
A. Goose: Thanks for the insightful posts. I have a question for you: Is physical gold traded every day on Comex, or only at certain times of the month? If Comex physical gold is historically traded daily, and now it is not, either the spot price is determined 100% by paper, or is determined elsewhere.

It is only a month or so when we learned from Allen ( USA ) that the Belgian gold sales of 190 tonnes or so were not at the spot official gold price, but at a somewhat higher unofficial price. It is worth our while to monitor all such activities such as these, and figure out the price of the gold sold.

No matter what the truth is, we know very well that the BIS and the world's Central Banks know the true market price of gold in dollars.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 13:59 - ID#280215)
JTF RE: Learning from Non-Westeners
I agree that we could learn much. However, in the case of MR. ANOTHER, he could easily make things simpler and he could take the lead in helping us learn by writing simple sentences/ideas. I do not believe for a minute that his current way of writing is the only way he knows how. One time he sounds like a CEO on CNBC with perfect English. Then in the next post, he sounds like someone taking English for the first time. If ANOTHER is multiple posters or an interpreter, then surely one of them can do their best to make his posts less cryptic. This is what makes the LGB's lash out at him as a phony. This is why I sometimes feel the same way, though I have honestly tried to be open about it. The RJ post from 7:19 this morning is the perfect example, as I pointed out. There was no need for him to write it that way. Unfortunately, that type of post only adds fuel to the argument that ANOTHER is just someone playing a joke on everyone

He could make this much easier to accept him if he would can the riddles and again, "JUST GET TO THE POINT". It takes two to tango. It seems that he always gets defended without having to try a little harder on his part. ANOTHER needs to make the first move here, and then I think you'll see less wasted bandwidth ( such as this ) on this subject. If he choses not to make the first move in this area, then my take is LGB is 100% correct in his analysis of who/what ANOTHER is.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:01 - ID#254269)
ABM; You deserve a gold medal
for poetry.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:03 - ID#57232)
Great Post! Good timing. We need some Humor today.
ABM: I share your sentiments! Unfortunately I only have shares in a few of the stocks you mention. Wish I could afford to buy more.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:03 - ID#33184)
Major Ed Dames
He repeats his prediction of at least $2000 per ounce for gold and global economic collapse by mid-year amongst other things.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:03 - ID#20135)
I have sort of given up on this because of the lack of reponse, but thanks for the input.
Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 13:22
sam ( A_Goose ) ID#286279:
This just came in. These things take time, sorry.

2. Refined Salt ( Table Salt )
1 " \126.

Yokkaichi, Japan, 27th April

Is the price for table salt 126 yen per pound. " symbol for pound.

Just checking, thanks. If this is correct then:

126 yen per ppound
US$0.265 per pound

one usdollar in cupertino = 475.47 yen
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 3.423 Rand
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 2.500 Rand
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.027 NLG
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 0.756 NLG
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.626 SFr
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.20 SFr

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:06 - ID#286230)
By Linda McQuaid--Shooting The Hippo ( Death By Deficit and Other Canadian Myths )
6pak. I am under the impression that the lady is an arch socialist. Am I wrong on this?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:08 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re AYM
The call was informative. Stuart Jackson is a competent and experienced geologist/mineralogist. The deal is that they are aiming at 2 distinct potentials. 1 ) the massive sulfide which will be extended well beyond the current by indications to the NE and SW. 2 ) the hydrothermal potential which has come after the massive sulfide. This has implications over a wide area of previously prospected locations. The kicker here is the occurence of tellurides. These occur with pyrite and chalcopyrite. The significance of TE is they are up to 50% gold. Doug Parker is a field man there and he will cal with more definition on TE. They are thawed and expect to be drilling within a few weeks. Apparently have the money and should know results in June. Hope this helps. Any questions, let me know, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:10 - ID#288156)
What a way to run a country--
Market down?
Run the President out to the Rose Garden,
Say something/anthing positive about a "hot button" issue
( Co-ordinate with PPT )
Down is Up
aaargghhhhh {:- ( ( (

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:13 - ID#176200)
I Heard Maj.Dames say this on the Art Bell Show on sun. night. for what its worth...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:14 - ID#57232)
ANOTHER and Speaker for ANOTHER
Straddler: I understand your frustration. However, I should point out that there is at least one individual who posted in the past under ANOTHER's id #, and he has indicated that he is filling in for ANOTHER on at least one occasion. I call the 'other' poster 'speaker for ANOTHER' as he is clearly much more facile with the English language. Currently, I think we are posting with the original.

Personally, I think the 'original' ANOTHER is geniune in the sense that it is not an act. But -- this really does not matter as he makes me think, and I confirm my suspicions from other sources before I act on them. For example, ANOTHER's posts about gold $2000/oz US were premature -- and he has backed off from such dire comments. He is right about the eventuality, however, but 2010 is a more likely date for such, not 1998.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:15 - ID#20135)
SDRer and others have been pointing out the movements in the BIS, gold franc and dinar, and usdollar. I think that the coming inflation is currency driven. As the US dollar falls the cost of all goods will rise dramatically.

If we are at the change point in the game, then just maybe the recent rise in interest rates were made to protect the usdollar and thus our ability to sell debt.

If the usdollar starts falling bigtime, interest rates can indeed rise strongly and have NO negative impact on the price of gold. In fact, I suggest that such a situation would skyrocket the price of gold.

I believe the USdollar is in grave trouble as the rest of the world is moving away from it. I don't see the fundamentals supporting a strong usdollar. I susggest that the USG has pulled out all the stops long ago to protect the usdollar, treasury sales, ....

I smell a sea change. We need to look to the fundamentals, paper trades can and I believe are used to manipulate the technicals.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:16 - ID#288156)
A. Goose--Salt 'n Gold
What eye-openers! Finally a glimpse into the inner sanctum of
VALUE! Please keep hacking through the jungle, you are clearing
an important path.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:16 - ID#218388)
Question - Large block trades?
I've noticed periods when blocks of 100,000 are traded for a Junior gold stock. The price does not change during or after these trades and the buyer and seller is the same brokerage house.

Please help a beginning investor by explaining the significance of this, if any.


Cage Rattler
(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:18 - ID#33184)
Major Ed Dames and Gold - link corrected

Replace !! with @@ in the link below:!!.ee6e04e

and choose transcript of April 24, 1998.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:23 - ID#335190)
Selby @ 14:06
"the lady is an arch socialist" No doubt, also a liberal, maybe a commie ?. My take suggests sound information, worth a read.

The Financial Post ( Conservative/Right wing/Reform/nazi ???? ) said on the cover: "A blistering indictment of Canada's tax system and the people who shape it....Whether you agree with McQuaig - and many businesspeople will find her ideas repugnant - you cannot ignore her"

Thanks....Take Care

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:25 - ID#280215)
As I am still open to the idea that ANOTHER could be genuine ( although this morning's RJ post has made it harder and harder ) , I will simply count on you and others to translate his riddles into plain english.

HOWEVER, I will also observe to see if he is making any concerted effort on his part to help us understand him better. Thanks for your input!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:35 - ID#340459)
I would (hopefully)refrain from buying PM stocks till the announcement of gold backing euro or till
there is strong upward movement over $ 310.00. it is easy to get swayed by the logic expressed in our forum but the market reality have proved otherwise to aspirations/expectations...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:45 - ID#343171)
EURO fractional reserves(F*,Allen,LGB and all..)
I need a bit of help sorting out the reserve status of the euro dollar,

which is soon to be decided upon by European bank leaders/finance

ministers. So far it has been intimated by various sources that the

gold backing would be anywhere fromo 5% to 30%, the balance being

Yen and US$. A few questions:

1 ) the reserve will be a fractional reserve, will it not?

2 ) what are the money supply targets for the euro?

3 ) the aggregate member bank gold holdings?

4 ) percentage of 'reserves' that are typical for other currencies,

to estimate ranges of the euro fractional reserve.

It seems that an attempt to quantify some of these numbers would

help clear up the possibilities for golds future price.

There is no currency in the world that has 100% backing, regardless of

currency/commodity mix, correct?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:51 - ID#218388)
Large block trades - Significance?
Further to my previous post...
1 trade - 1,301,000 shares
Should I sell the house and buy this company?
Or should I sell the shares while the going is good?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:55 - ID#286279)
Sorry, it's a hectic day here.

The " refers to the Kg above it, so 1Kg table salt costs 126 yen.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:59 - ID#434158)
Gold and Y2K
FWIF there is a brief article on Y2K and gold today on the Westergaard site, The text, by Jack Weber, is probably no great revealation to those posting here:

1. Banks: Y2K problems inside and outside banks may well lead to currency shortages and/or devaluation, as well as limited access to bank accounts ( by government intervention due to shortage of cash )

2. Stocks: Quotes Ed Yourdan that many companies surviving Y2K problems will do so in a weakened state, resulting in greatly reduced stock prices,

3. Wall Street: Quotes economist Paul Krugman that stocks are overvalued anyway,

4. Inflation: Says M1 is up over 9% in the last 6 months, M3 up 10% per year for past 3 years.

5. Horrendous Year 2000 expense: Quotes Capers Jones, author of The Year 2000 Software Problem as saying "costs of fixing the Year 2000 software problem may constitute the single greatest expense in history."

I assume most of you already know this, but it's nice to see wider exposure of gold as a necessary preparation for the future. Word is spreading. GungaDin

(Tue Apr 28 1998 14:59 - ID#288156)
Carl, would appreciate it if you would take a look at the "CAPS" paragraph....
What should I do if I have invested in ecus?
As an umbrella for European currencies, the ecu will exist until December 1998, and will disappear on 1 January 1999.

**THE PRIVATE ECU WILL REMAIN AFTER THIS DATE.** On 1 January 1999, an ecu will become a euro.

COMMENT: This appears to state that there will be something called the
"private ecu" after the ecu ( public? ) becomes the Euro. Unless this is
an instance of tortured translation? Do you read it so?
Catalunya Savings Bank ( Spain ) FAQs about Euro is simple terms
( English )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:06 - ID#20748)
Haggis gave you good advise this morning. You shoul pay heed to it.

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 10:07
Haggis__A ( RJ............. ) ID#398105:


You appear to floating along on "Cloud Nine". You must always remember that clouds do disperse, perhaps you will come back down to earth with

PRACTICE artificial insemination, keep it in hand !

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo................

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:06 - ID#288156)
Carl, would appreciate it if you would take a look at the "CAPS" paragraph....
What should I do if I have invested in ecus?
As an umbrella for European currencies, the ecu will exist until December 1998, and will disappear on 1 January 1999.

**THE PRIVATE ECU WILL REMAIN AFTER THIS DATE.** On 1 January 1999, an ecu will become a euro.

COMMENT: This appears to state that there will be something called the
"private ecu" after the ecu ( public? ) becomes the Euro. Unless this is
an instance of tortured translation? Do you read it so?
Catalunya Savings Bank ( Spain ) FAQs about Euro is simple terms
( English )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:07 - ID#20135)
Table correct as to sam's input.
Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 13:22
sam ( A_Goose ) ID#286279:
This just came in. These things take time, sorry.

1. Ordinary Salt ( NaCl ) produced at a factory ( for cooking )
1kg.pack \107.

2. Refined Salt ( Table Salt )
1 " \126.

3. Natural Salt ( produced from sea water in some different
places in Japan ) . This includes bitter and minerals, etc.
I think this salt is for cooking.
1 kg.pack \240 - \300

Yokkaichi, Japan, 27th April

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 3.423 Rand
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 2.500 Rand
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.027 NLG
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 0.756 NLG
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.626 SFr
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.20 SFr
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 215.63 Yen

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:08 - ID#20748)

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:10 - ID#345176)
VRONSKY, what did you do to DROOY? Now at 9-month high!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:19 - ID#288399)
Of course, Elaine was scheduled for late today: She's a paper bull again! If Joe Battapaglia, Ralph Acampora, and Jim Awad can't do it -- book Elaine!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:20 - ID#255151)

Brabo! Midas well Buy More Gold, yes?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:20 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index down 4.90% to 1048. Yesterday Randfontein was the only gold stock that I could find showing a gain.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:26 - ID#427357)

Ref: "Myrmidon ( VRONSKY, what did you do to DROOY? Now at 9-month high! )

The same SRV factor providing impetus to DROOY will eventually propel RANGY.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:27 - ID#253418)
To Goose
Goose was it you who was worried about the deliveries against the April Comex contract. Maybe not . Seemed to be a hoax. I like another poseter just below must refraim from getting sucked in by the exuberance on this from.

Big Time Tom
(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:31 - ID#212320)
Ed Dames and the price of gold
I can't resist this one. Concerning Major Ed Dames, Cage Rattler wrote: "He repeats his prediction of at least $2000 per ounce for gold and global economic collapse by mid-year amongst other things."

About a year ago I also heard this Bozo, who claims 100% accuracy for his remote viewing predictions, predict that a plant pathogen would destroy virtually all plant life on earth before the summer of 1998. Later he predicted that radiation pulses from the sun would devastate one side of the earth this spring. I suppose that such events would indeed produce a world-wide economic collapse!


(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:34 - ID#286230)
6pak: When Conny Black gets his new paper into production in the fall we will have the "right" side identifed. Imagine having 5 daily newspapers in 1 city.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:36 - ID#342315)
John Disney re Pt, Pd and Rhody
Each element has its own interstial qualities. There is no known way at the moment to cf the same active sites for the same thing. IE, one is good for H, one is good for Petro etc. I am waiting on a tech "spert to reply for your question at 01:22. It is possible for some substitution and that is what I want to hear-which is ok and which is cheapest. Will respond when I get a dependable answer. Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:40 - ID#347235)
Side margins
Bart, side margins are still awol
not much fun scrolling left & right
as well as down, makes it kinda slow.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:44 - ID#266105)
@is it safe yet?

Selby-- two wrongs don't make a right but three lefts do!

: )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:49 - ID#286230)
Around and Around we Go
2BRO2B? I think it will be 4 rights and 1 left.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:50 - ID#371237)
Interesting... mmmmhhh.... If RANGY closes on the high today ... it its quite possible that it will emerge from its tight Bollinger Bands condition on the upside... real soon. Gaston

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:52 - ID#340302)
Some Prefatory Comments...
My wife is house-hunting today and so soon I must join her. Therefore, I will post a fairly late report with much good news.

I find that the major virtue of our Information Age is NOT the opportunity it offers Wall Street to declare a New Paradigm and harvest the profits of a vertical mania. Rather, its chief virtue is that, in the creation of the Internet, there has never such a pandemic forum in which compelling ideas can be disseminated. The ideas themselves are the
criteria by which the participant is judged...not his credentials nor his job nor any other aspect of his identity. In cyberspace, the ideas are ultimately all that matter.

In that respect, the Internet serves to level the playing field. Citing
ones credentials ad nauseaum is all very fine...but what exactly do you have to say? Do your thoughts contain any original kernels of Truth?
How articulate are those thoughts?

On the Internet, ideas represent the ultimate power. Whether or not the participant has a billion dollars net worth....or lives in a mansion atop
Beverly Hills...or is an eight figure salaried investment banker at Lehman...all these issues really do not matter in cyberspace.

The power is contained in the ideas.

In that sense, the Internet is the ultimate democratizing force in America.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:58 - ID#286230)
Almost got it.

Hey Farfel--you screwed up your own conclusion--the Internet is the ultimate democratizing force on the GLOBE.

"On the Internet, ideas represent the ultimate power. Whether or not the
participant has a billion dollars net worth....or lives in a mansion atop
Beverly Hills...or is an eight figure salaried investment banker at Lehman...all
these issues really do not matter in cyberspace.

The power is contained in the ideas.

In that sense, the Internet is the ultimate democratizing force in America."

(Tue Apr 28 1998 15:59 - ID#238422)
John Disney and Junior
My brothers!

Let me express my sincere feelings of deepest appreciation
for your most generous evaluation of my very modest input
in numerous fields of strategic importance. After reading
your posts I feel like a cat getting unlimited fresh milk
24 hours a day...with a little cute blond mouse floating
in the middle of a milk bowl...

Your very happy and grateful brother Oris.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:00 - ID#253418)
Goose - Come Back
Goose you didn't respond to my inquiry as to whether or not it was you who were so concerned about the deliveries against the comex gold contract. I remeber the contracts outstanding were three time the eligible stocks and where was all the gold going to come from. 4000+ contract and not enough gold..... who was that ??????

Should we need another hoax of metal anxiety to get started and worked up about, lets start the count down on Comex May silver deliveries. What's the open interst equal to all the silver ever mined.!!!! Funny how these things work out and the world, much less the mightly comex, don't come to an end.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:06 - ID#427357)

Pls send me an email - as I would like to talk to you about the RANGY Technical Analysis:

I have another very unique approach - it would just take a different angle look at the data you already have.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:06 - ID#410215)
..... PGMs .....

I have a meeting in an hour with Jaques Lubin of The Platinum Guild International. We will discuss the current state of the PGM market today. Perhaps some explanation may come as to why platinum has yet to enjoy the fruits of palladium labor. If you recall last year though, platinum did not make its move until after the meteoric rise of palladium, and after all contracts were signed and metal was scheduled for delivery.

Perhaps we may now also learn where the deep and mysterious underwater SA PGM mines are. I will also attempt to learn more of the catalytic properties of various PGMs. Thre were a couple of excellent posts this AM regarding catalytic properties of rhodium. Palladium, and platinum. Don't remember the poster, but he/she knows his/her stuff.

Since this does not fall under my self imposed ban on market opinion, I would be happy to post the results of this meeting.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:09 - ID#253418)
To Goose: Latest Comex countdown
Just to get the next comex anxiety hoax going, here, let me report that open interest in the May Silver future is 16,660 - gosh, look at those sixes - is that bullish or what.

More to the point, 16,660 contracts equlas - would you believe it,
ALL the Silver at the COMEX!!!!! They'll be closing the doors!!!!


(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:12 - ID#341189)
On the "private ecu": My guess is they are referring to ecus that have been used in commercial transactions as opposed to government issues of debt instruments in ecu units ( which will translated right away into euros ) . I haven't thought this through but, these might cause quite some difficulty in Spain because i don't think the peseta is in the basket which difines the ecu. There must be exchange rate and interest rate disparities involved somewhere with pseseta-euro, euro-ecu, and no fixed peseta-ecu cross rate. ( This makes my head tired. )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:27 - ID#288156)
Carl--Mine toooooo {:-))
Thanks! You have a special way of cutting through obfuscation!
Found a BIG reference at EMI March convergence report---
unhappily a BIG PDF file. There goes the afternoon. Thanks again.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:28 - ID#345176)
Kinross Gold acquires 2 Australian gold properties

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:29 - ID#341189)
@ filling in for Donald's afternoon task
Dow/Gold = 28.92; XAU/Gold = .287; Gold/Silver = 50.03

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:30 - ID#375108)
kitcat, methinks you are referring to GEO,T...
I really am a novice, but this looks like accumulation going on here to me. We've seen it over the past two weeks or so in the stock, and the price has risen from the $2.30-$2.40 area to a close of $2.55 or so today last I looked ( with a runup over $3.00 during the gold rally last week ) . Seems positive to me, and I'm holding on... All just my opinion... As for the GEO block today, Green Line handled both the purchase and sale; this is a common practice for big block trades. Have no idea who actual buyer and seller are. Maybe someone else can provide us both with more details...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:36 - ID#410215)
..... 223 - read this ...

223 -

I made a mistake in my post to you. You asked about palladium, I read "platinum" and gave you numbers based on that. If you look at my post, you will see I claim to have the lowest prices on "platinum" Sorry for the mix up.

Now for the scoop. Palladium closed at what, 365 today? I can currently deliver 50 ounce increments in the form of one ounce JM or Englehard bars for $19,195 total. This works out to about 384 per ounce, delivered.

My trading department told me that physical palladium for delivery is hard to get, and has seen up to $25 per ounce delivery fees recently. There are currently no added fees on palladium shipments, but this could change tomorrow.

Current stock is in one ounce bars, ten ounce bars are also available. I believe I can ship all one ounce bars, but this market is so thin, a mixture of ones and tens may prove to be the only way to get your hands on the stuff.

This is not a solicitation to sell. Nor not even neither or either a recommendation to buy. This is a response to a frustrated seeker who has been unable to find this info elsewhere.

That's the scoop


Gotta' go chat about the international platinum market with the one individual who is intimately involved with all PGM producers, refiners, and marketers in the world. You may thank Jacques Lubin also for the Platinum American Eagle, for it was his two year persistent lobbying effort that got the law passed and the coin made.

He the man.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:41 - ID#246224)
CoolJing re: Euro factional reserves, etc.
I'm not following this to closely. But one thing that does stand out in my mind is the difference between 'backing' and 'reserves'. The Euro will have reserves but not backing. The reserves will include gold and other currencies. The reason for this is two fold, IMHO: 1 ) use to even out short term currency to currency aberrations and 2 ) payment of debt in crisis ( see Korea ) .

The Swiss Franc is literally 'backed' by gold at 40% gold. They can't print a bizzillion SFs unless they have gold to assure their value. The SDR is also backed by gold ( see SDRer for details about that ) . But all the official language I've heard about the Euro is not about 'backing' a la Swiss Franc but 'reserves'. So a 25% reserve in gold is not a bind on the number of Euros which can be printed ( IMO ) .

The Euro is still a fiat currrency. I think the fact that it is a new currency under conservative management, with some gold available if the need arise to pay off an obligation, makes it more attractive than the US$. There are also geo-political considerations which come into play regarding having a alternatives verses being stuck with one world reserve currency ( and therefore one country as the big 'hog' so to speak ) , etc.

All with the usual disclaimers.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:43 - ID#225273)
kitcat & large bloc trades
The situation you describe is called a "cross." It is a prearranged trade in which a large amount of shares move from one account to another. These trades are of no particular significance. Many times the company will help facilitate them to keep its market orderly.
If someone wants to move 100,000 to 300,000 or more shares, it would wreck the market of the small company. So, the shareholder will call the company and tell them what he wants to do. The company will find a buyer or buyers and they'll make a deal outside of the market.
Then, they either clear out the market or wait until it is clear, and the transaction goes down.
These trades in and of themselves don't give any particular indication as to which way the market is likely to move afterwards.

The Preacher

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:43 - ID#20135)
Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 16:09
jims ( To Goose: Latest Comex countdown ) ID#253418:
Just to get the next comex anxiety hoax going, here, let me report that open interest in the May Silver future is 16,660 -
gosh, look at those sixes - is that bullish or what.
More to the point, 16,660 contracts equlas - would you believe it,
ALL the Silver at the COMEX!!!!! They'll be closing the doors!!!!



jims, it has to end somewhere and the best I can tell the paper bullion traders won't give up until they NO bullion AT ALL. They drive the paper prices down and folks are taking delivery on actual bullion. I would think we are going to wake up one morning soon and gold and silver acting jsut like palladium did a few days ago- up 40+ in and hour+.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 16:59 - ID#60253)

I see the USAGOLD company has found the EURO important! One does ask, what will this currency look like? It is very clear, yes? See my Date: "Sat Apr 25 1998 22:55 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:", and look to the BONN report! There the Germany does offer one answer. If they do "transfer" their reserves portion in gold, and Germany does make up one third of the reserves, then the Euro will have 30%+ gold backing by nature of Germany alone!

Also, Italy has shown the market of gold will be brought to $360 by nature of it's marking to this level. They state this publicly! They also ask for 30%+, publicly!

Also, the Bank of England does prepare it's public for this new gold market! A market that will deny the repayment of gold loaned, at US$ prices that will keep Bullion Banks alive! The Euro will be strong, indeed!

Also, the UBS does ask, "what will the Cbs do with all the left over gold"? I ask, "what will the Germans do with all the left over US$"? Truly, with the Euro about to win the price of oil, gold will grow large in the dollar!

As the BO England gold does not come home, the US$ reserves must "COME HOME"!

Thank You

As soon as able, I will write of the BIS.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:00 - ID#255151)
No, Mr. Bond, I Expect You to Die

One of the problems with Gold is that it has suffered from bad p.r. Prime example being the unjust portrayal of a great man as a villain. First and foremost, Auric Goldfinger was a Gold bug. That alone should convince us of his virtuosity. He was ahead of his time with respect to ethnic diversity as well. Note the high position and status of the Asians who worked for him. So he went a little overboard trying to nuke Ft. Knox. It's not like that's a major population center. Compare this to Mr. Bond, who was going all over Europe having adulterous affairs with young women, killing Gold bugs, and generally behaving like an Arkansas redneck with a fancy accent. Mr. Goldfinger, you should have kept that laser going!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:05 - ID#431263)
Heh! Heh! Heh! Loved your ode to Kitco-ites! Such a talent! Have posted it above my quote screen for all to see! Just one more of the many fringe benefits one gets by participating in this honorable forum! Danke sehr mein Herr!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:10 - ID#20135)
jims here are the stats I was referring to:
as of 04/20/98

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR April 5,155 61 4,178


That means that 417,800 ounces of actual gold were scheduled for delivery in april. There are ONLY 167,035 ounce in comex's eligible stocsk as of yesterday.

That is the data.

Silver has ( 61*5000ouncesper contract ) 305,000 ounces scheduled for delivery in april. So they are able to handle the scheduled deveries at this time. You can't really tell who is going to take delivery from open interest. Comex eligible silver stocks are 32,523,174. They got plenty to cover it.

Open interest includes shorts and longs... it would take a goodly number to decide to take delivery to wipe out the stocks, but it is possible. 1660 contracts = 83.3 million ounces, 39.1 per cent.

Your right if 39.1% decide to take delivery eligible comex silver stocks will vanish.

thanks jims, keep us up to date on the eligible silver stocks, let us see which one gets cleaned out first.

p.s. sorry I didn't mean to ignore you post, just behind on many items I am to have completed and under control. Of course, none under control and to few completed.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:12 - ID#57232)
Sparring war between US and Japan. German gold and the EURO
All: Please see today's USA gold post. I think the poster has the reason for the recent market twitch, and the reason why Japan has not sold more US treasuries. The market twitch is presumably due to AG's leak about possibly raising interest rates. This is what I posted last night. Today the gold equities are back up presumably because cooler heads prevailed with the realization that US has no intention of raising rates right now.

Why hasn't Japan sold more treasuries to push the dollar down? As the USA Gold poster says, Japan has a trade advantage with a strong dollar, and until the day comes that they do not, it is in their best interest not to sell US treasuries. Why should the Japanese shoot themselves in the foot by selling US treasuries? So the sparring match between the US and Japan is just for show.

The USA Gold poster then comments that the real threat to the US dollar will probably come from Europe with the announcement of that the actual gold reserves will be.

My comments: We need to be very careful on this Euro matter that we separate discussion of internal gold reserves from external ones. The part I really like about this matter is German gold 'sales' to the Euro could be bullish for gold. The Germans might actually 'sell' ( some of? ) their gold, especially if Euro central bank headquarters were in Germany, and under near-total German control. Then they would have their cake and eat it -- they would maintain control of their gold, strengthen the Euro, and use the proceeds of the gold 'sales' to stimulate their economy, all in one blow. Also, they could revalue the price of their gold to current market rates -- spot, or above spot? It will not matter if the price of gold rises before they 'sell' the gold to the Ecu. Brilliant move, if that is what is about to happen. It may not be quite this simple, because as a member of the ECU, Germany will undoubtedly be required to deliver collateral of some kind to the new Euro bank as their 'share'. But how many other ECU members would be able to deliver gold as collateral?

Like someone on Kitco said -- 'He who owns the Gold gets to set the rules'.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:14 - ID#431263)
Obviously, if the Euro is backed by 30% gold it will drive the dollar into oblivion and if ME oil interests turn to the euro instead of the US dollar for payment of oil, then the dollar price of gold will truly SOAR into the many thousands as ANOTHER suggests! I take it, Herr ANOTHER, that you now think this a done deal and only a matter of months before what is already done in secret is revealed to all the world--at which point, I assume, it will be too late to dump dollars and buy gold. Yes?
Looking forward to your learning more about this NEW gold market!! Please keep posting, mein Herr!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:18 - ID#201238)
comex data
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 89,166,689 - 46,446 troy ounces
Copper 108,546 - 225 short tons

makes you wonder if they are still open!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:23 - ID#345176)

May be the US will also back the dollar proportionally with its own reserves to avoid a dollar collapse. 30% the EURO, 30% the dollar. That leaves Asian and ROR unprotected because of their low or nonexistent gold reserves.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:24 - ID#345176)
Golden Head, sorry I forgot the cheese and it is ROW, no ROR

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:30 - ID#57232)
Euro/Gold Addendum
All: In our discussions of the EURO and gold, there is a further complication. The new EURO currency is begin gradually with only a small portion of international trade for a period of time, with the majority of trade to remain in the original currencies, such as the Deutsche Mark. If so, the EURO will need little reserve backing, and the member countries might require extensive reserve backing. Hence the transfer of reserves may be gradual.

There is one way the new EURO central bank could pick up all of the reserves fairly quickly -- and that is if it becomes responsible for reserve backing of all member countries -- with the expanding interim EURO operating as a basket currency.

I leave the unraveling of this mystery to more August members of the unofficial Kitco 'EURO' committee -- such as SDRer or Delphi, or ?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:30 - ID#256250)
Regarding usdollars coming home, maybe this is a good time to repost leland excellant find.
"Few Americans may realize it, but
more U.S. currency is in circulation outside the United States than
inside. Of the $450 billion in bills and coins now lining people's
wallets, cash registers, bank vaults, and mattresses, about two
thirds--or $300 billion--is abroad.

As long as the
paper stays overseas, the United States does not have to redeem it
for other goods or services, and it does not swell America's
domestic money supply or contribute to inflation.

It is almost impossible for U.S. authorities to keep track of where
U.S. currency is circulating.

( ( Don't kid yourselves the "U.S. authorities have no idea where of how much U.S. currency is circulating abroad-this is the same government where the IRS can't balance their own books. ) )


Allen and others have discussed this topic in detail. I agree with ANOTHER the big worry is not conterfeiting, but the tidal wave of usdollars heading home. That is why the USG is gfighting so incredibly hard to keep gold down. They can't afford to have the dollar fall. 1 ) Dollar falls,2 ) bonds fall, 3 ) market falls, Go 1. Gold moves up sharply - because it is a store of value and is cherished by many governments and people around the world.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:35 - ID#57232)
Goldfinger the hero and James Bond the Villan! Heading home early today.
Auric: What did you say your last name was? I loved your story!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:39 - ID#253418)
Goose thanks for the data
4178 delivery notices - -could you enlighten me what that means!? April Gold is almost liquidate with just tens of contracts left. Does that mean 4000+ are awaiting delivery even without a contract. Does the long contract go off the tally of open interst when the long stands for delivery.??? If so, my gosh something must be up, and this is the best kept secret in the commodoity world.

Appreciate your ideas on this. I'll be off line for a couple of hours but will return for any light you can shed on this.

I'm not going to get too excited as if their was fire where this smoke is coming from Gold would be off the wall.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:44 - ID#228100)
ALBERICH__A - Y2K Comments
It's good to know that the communications systems will be functioning after next year. Most of the problems that I've seen are with the financial systems. Some of these companies will not be able to produce financial statements, invoices, or pay their employees.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:46 - ID#238295)
Today's modest rally in gold stocks while POG fell sharply is extremely bullish. Farfel may well be right about a short trap about to be sprung.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 17:53 - ID#256250)
jims it is sort of complicated...
As we have learned from Questor and TlyerRose. Once you decide to take delivery it can take months to actually get your bullion. It seemed from those examples that comex was not use to making delivery or had trouble getting the product to delivery.

Todays updated report from futuresource:

FWN: 081338 GMT

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

Prudential Securities Inc. 61 Aig Clearing Corporation 23
Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 33 Prudential Securities Inc. 21
Cargill Investor Services 8 Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 8
E.D.&F. Man International 12 Carr Futures Inc. 11
Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 11 E.D.&F. Man International 3
Triland Usa Inc. 80 Refco, Inc. 3
TOTAL 205 Credit Lyonnais Rouse 84
-- Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 26
-- MG London Inc. 26
-- TOTAL 205


Aig Clearing Corporation 55 Aig Clearing Corporation 70
Goldman Sachs & Co. 11 Prudential Securities Inc. 32
Republic N.Y. Securities 44 Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 4
TOTAL 110 Carr Futures Inc. 1
-- Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 1
-- Smith Barney Inc. 2
-- TOTAL 110

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 205 0 110
SO FAR FOR April 5,605 71 4,362



Now these scheduled deliveries can roll over, or sell at the last minute.
BUT noting that the scheduled deliveries are still increasing, it would seem that something interesting will soon happen.

jims, as for the exact dates that they are taking delivery... I can't say. Maybe Arden can add some inforamtion here.

436,200 ounces scheduled for delivery, 167,035 eligible gold stocks. Yes, it doesn't work out ... what is going to happen??? I for one am looking forward to finding out.

buy gold, take delivery, and hang onto it.

I got go and get some work done. Have a great golden day, by the way how about those bonds!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:11 - ID#26669)
RJ, thanks again plus more wonder about shortages
Actually, I've got enough palladium plus my SWC shares, but I started on this present search for information when I found that the market was so thinly traded I couldn't sell it at all close to spot or even swap it for gold at any reasonable rate of exchange with anyone with whom I usually do business. So as the bullion dealer stonewalling grew it became more of an interest as to why and how there was such a scant amount in circulation and I lost interest in selling, figuring there was much less out there than people pretend. IMHO

Now, if you're a broker at the biggest consumer metals dealer in the country and you have had trouble procuring, holding and/or moving it then it sounds to me that the shortage MIGHT be a really much more profoundly dangerous proposition than anyone gives credence. For a broker with well established long term wholesale relationships would theoretically be able to just pick up the phone and get all they wanted if there was any to be had, wouldn't they? IMHO

There is historical precident to my interest. A similar situation occurred some 65 +/- years ago when the US and Nazi Germany had a little known arms race to corner the world's helium market. The US won, which meant we were able to equip a fleet of blimps which were instrumental in the North Atlantic antisubmarine war, but the Germans were left with second best, the explosive element hydrogen. If they'd had helium the odds would have changed drastically in their favor. IMHO

Which leads me again to wonder again about how far up the price will go, but also WHO ELSE IS STOCKPILING PALLADIUM? So you see each answered question leads to another unanswered one? Anyone with more info? IMHO

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:15 - ID#411112)
RJ I got a wholesale price on Russian ballerinas $345.00 that is a 1/2oz only problem my supplier

is buying not selling seems there are not any
available if there are I bet they selling for
close to $370.00 or $740.00 an oz,something
we all should ponder,forget Comex
prices,....... in the real world spreads on
physical whether its Palladium,Plat,Gold or
Silver........when these markets do take a
serious move up the cash market price for
product vastly excedes that of the daily
Comex price.

I for one we tell you, if gold moved limit up
tommorow 309+25 = $334.00 the premium my
supplier would charge me on Eagels would
double,just speaking from past experiance,I
know it has been a long time since that has
happened the fact is it happens,Ballirinas
are proof,by the way they are all proof coins
could also say something about collector

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:20 - ID#26669)
In other words, as the great poet and philospher, Junior Samples, once said, "I don' know nuthin', but I suspect a lot."

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:23 - ID#258129)
JTF, 17:30 (Euro/Gold Addendum)
JTF, you are right, that it is up to every company in EMU zone to decide, when to replace companys bank accounts from national currency to EURO. I think, many will decide to wait for a while - to see what happened, and also - to reduce costs. But what is important on the other side - all bourses in EMU zone will start trading in EURO form Jan 2, 1999. All existing shares, bonds, futures, options in all 11 counties will be converted to EURO with no exception to this rule. And this huge.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:25 - ID#258129)
Missed "is" in last sentance

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:34 - ID#267344)
Alberich the Dwarf
You must have missed my post directed to you and others concerning Iridium ( must haave been over a month ago ) . I wanted to know whether the company was planning to be Y2k compliant. I also mentioned that this would be a compelling advertising gimmick for Iridium. Well, thanks for the delayed answer. By the way, are those 66 Iridium satellites "meteor shower compliant?"
- c

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:44 - ID#28994)
Worth watching
It may be a little premature to be getting to excited about the Euro and prospects for a Gold backing. In Germany the Politician worth watching is Gerhard Schroeder who seems to be making a few political inroads. The German people are basically opposed to the Euro. If Schroeder comes out politically against the Euro and wins, the whole idea of the Euro currency will be lost. Without Germany there will be no Euro.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:46 - ID#347235)
@ 223
I suspect that Junior Samples knew more than he let on. The last two days have taught me more than the last several months, mainly that nothing makes sense, we all thought that then the market dropped gole
bidness would go up? Go Figure!! I am still in for the long haul and still buying as much as my inadequate retired pay will buy.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:47 - ID#255151)
El Leonid

Yep, we're in for it. This annual meteor shower, a remnant of the comet Tempel-Tuttle, is set to peak in Nov. '98 or '99.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:57 - ID#288295)
Palladium coins at auction

For anyone looking to bid on a couple palladium coins, there are two at the Ebay coin auction at this time: 25 Roubles Russian and 1 Oz Western Samoa; items 12141157 and 12373711. Do a search for palladium under the heading non-us coins.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:57 - ID#57232)
Brief comment about the markets -- got held up by a problem at work.
All: Just looked at the Nasdaq intraday chart. Very strong early rise, follow by a steady slow drop during the day -- rising slightly at the end to close up 11.46. What is most significant is that advances were 2519, and declines 170. Is that a Telescan misprint? If so, I would not consider this pattern that of a one-day reversal from yesterday. We may have some weakness to come -- but it is interesting that the Nasdaq is as strong as it is. Market churning like this, without a crash or a Fed induced interest rate hike is bound to be bullish for gold and gold stocks. We must be patient and hope for bullish gold news from the Euro launch updates.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 18:59 - ID#258129)
For people, trading currency options
There are rumors, that Dutch guilder and Finnish markka ( strongest currencies to-date in EMU zone ) are going to be re-valued during EU May 1-2 meeting.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:06 - ID#255151)

Mr. Goldfinger, that great and good man, seen here exercising his 2nd Amendment rights--

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:09 - ID#401237)

For a couple of Ho Hum days,
Looks Good to Me.^XAU&d=2y


(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:11 - ID#255151)

HERE is Goldfinger excercising his 2nd Amendment rights

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:12 - ID#254112)
@clone: your 18:34 Iridium
I'm sorry I missed your post from a month ago as you said.
Yes, you are right, this should be a very effective advertising point when they can say that they are Y2K compliant.
The old established telecommunication monsters are completely inflexible and as I think, unable to handle the Y2K problem. Their managements have a tendency to hide behind legal "firewalls' instead of solving problems.

In your post you are asking about a meteorite shower. I have heard there is one to be expected either in September this year or next year. I think this shower passes by the globe but endangers the geostationary satellites. If this shower passes by, it should not hurt the low Earth orbit satellites because those are not so high up. But I don't know for sure. You ask very good questions, I think form an investor's viewpoint.

I'll keep an eye on this shower question. I have to talk to some satellite engineers of the older generation. They usually know such things.

Alberich the Dwarf

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:17 - ID#430260)
Solar Eclipse (Auric)
I'm going to Turkey for the August 11, 1999 Total solar eclipse. Anyone want to come along? The eclipse stars in the ocean South of New Foundland ( there will probably be eclipse ships sailing from Canada for the event ) goes through the southern tip of England, near Paris, Munich, Vienna, Budapest, and then Turkey. Ends in India. I chose Turkey because chance of clear skies there is greatest. Watch the astro market predictors go hog wild then. --AG

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:19 - ID#341189)
Ledbed building political base in Siberia

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:22 - ID#401237)
Nikkei 225
Nikkei 225


(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:23 - ID#253418)
Goose / on gold deliveries
4000+ lost of gold "schduled" for delivery? Some of these deliveries seem to be being made by the "stoppers" - right. The key point would seem to be how many of the schduled deliveries are left to be made. As the Comex stock numbers don't seem to change very often the deliveries msut go on without an impact to stocks.

Anybody else in to this issue with some perspective or facts on the delivery process to offer.

The way I'm reading this is that 4000+ deliveries are still or were and are still due off the April contract. Today was the last trading day for April gold, I think, so if a problem exists it wasn't reflected in the action in the markets.

The key question I have is what is the net undelivered number of contracts of the 4000+ "scheduled" The number 4000+ seems to have grown with deliveries made so I think the net is important. Still the fact that 4000 contracts were involved seems important.

Others , ANOTHER'S, FARFEL, RJ's perspective on this would be welcomed.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:24 - ID#255151)
Gusto Oro

South of Newfoundland, eh? Here's an idea. Let's go to Cape Breton that day and tell the natives to hand over all their Gold, or we'll blot out the Sun forever.

L. Long
(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:31 - ID#245113)
JTF-Nobody here but us Howards.
RE My Age: I'm far to young to be worried about the world economy vs. year2k problems.

As for your comments about the 401k and 403b, I know mine won't allow me to get into a gold fund at this point, so I dont worry about it, as my retirement is a good 50 years away as I see it. Barring global/national complete economic collapse, i.e. I lose my job, I'm not worried in the least about my investing goals, as I believe I'm about to be at the bottom of the next wave up. I'm currently hedging with metals and mining stocks. ( And I know enough blacksmithing to get by, worst comes to worst. )

And as you say, once the rush to the exits happens ( if ) people will pull the money regardless of what the tax laws say. Could this all be a big plot to actually get tax returns in a hurry on the tax free accounts, everyone in 401ks cash out, and we have a balanced budget?

What I've been trying to figure out, is exactly how much of the market is in 401k, 403b and other tax deferred or "retirement accounts". I would love to be able to dig up the percentages over the past 10 years or so to see how much of the current bubble is being buoyed up by these funds, and what percentages of the more liquid money from big investors and non reitrement money has already started to move out of the markets.

I figure the people with their whole retirement, their kids college tuition and there down-payment on a new house riding in a retirement fund are going to try to leave it in no matter what, going for the long term. Unfortunately, most people these days think in long term of 5-10 years, rather than lifetimes.

What might finnaly wind up as the current resting place for the equites market ( my own uninformed musings ) might be the current percentage of retirement funds in the market plus something like whatever was left over in the market crashes without these funds ( 1929 ) ,inflation adjusted of course. I have no idea where to get or how to interpret data like this, although I'm a tryin'. If anyone know these numbers, or where to get them, I'd love to know.

Anyway, I really have no knowledge or training beyond what I learn from Kitco, and what I pick up at random from the news and internet. You people make sense. The news dosen't. Therefore, GO GOLD. Especially till about Feb,2000.

L. Long
(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:40 - ID#245113)
RE:my 19:30 worried=worrying
sorry long day

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:46 - ID#284379)
Cutting to the chase!
Will gold go up tomorrow? June has dropped 6.40 in 3 straight days after rising 6.40 in 4 straight days.......time to turn back up?

Go gold!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:53 - ID#238295)
anti-gold motion pictures
"Goldfinger" is far from the only anti-gold big budget picture made in Hollywood and Britain. An excellent thriller entitled "GOLD" starring John Gielgud, Roger Moore, and Ray Milland was released by the Brits in 1974 as the gold price took off. To quote film critic Leonard Maltin, this was " a grand scale adventure action yarn about a plot to control the price of gold on world markets by destroying a South African mine."
I have seeen the film and it is very good, its anti-gold message aside.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:54 - ID#267344)
Alberich the Dwarf
I have been watching Iridium ever since it went public last year, both from an investors view and from a customer's view. As one who will be cruising in the South Pacific during the Y2k crisis, I want my phone, modem, and GPS to work. I posted this at 23:43 last night. You will find it informative.
- c

(Tue Apr 28 1998 19:59 - ID#341189)
Are those derivatives I see in my Muni Fund? Or just inverse floaters in my eyes?

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:01 - ID#430260)
Native's Gold (Auric)
Okay! ( Just remember we only have a three to four minute window of opportunity--should I bring along a mirror and some matches along too, just in case? ) --AG

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:10 - ID#286249)
Carl--There is an "official" ECU and a "private ECU"
ECU obligations
Article 2 states that the replacement in legal instruments of ECUs by Euros shall be at a rate of one Euro to one ECU. This presumes that references to ECUs in contracts are to the official ECUs as opposed to various 'private ECUs' commonly used by contracting parties. Whilst Article 2 does allow for rebuttal of such a presumption by the parties, the likelihood is that many ECU denominated contracts may not contain words clear enough to do so.This therefore leaves some contracts vulnerable to being transferred into Euros in circumstances where the Euro might be a stronger currency than the 'private' ECU it replaces. ments to contracts to guard against this.

COMMENT: This is akin to the 1 SDR = GF, or 1SDR = 15.xxGF, in
short, a very mobile feast ( on a fast trolley ) {:- )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:11 - ID#224151)
Spicey Kitcoing!
Love it when those Big Egos clash ( Farfel RJ LGB )
The self appointed omnipotence  of LGB. The lyrical and cunning RJ.
But in my books right now Farfels the man IDCIBM.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:15 - ID#286249)
Carl--retraction, is not akin to the GF...too much reading
the GF is REAL, it is a measure and in comparision to the ECU, EURO
it is soooooo HONEST AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. Need to go have a swim!

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:19 - ID#401237)

Rough Night!

They had a long day, must be resting and sleeping it off right now - if not they should be.


Voyeur Professor
(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:26 - ID#231101)
Gold and the EMI

I believe now that golds fate will hinge on the success of the Euro, and those who maintain that any break-up of the proposed monetary union will precipitate a currency crisis that will be bullish for gold are in error. My reasoning rests with the "flight to security" that will ensue should the Euro fail. We have already seen the results of an Asian currency crisis. The results there clearly proved damaging for gold, not only initiating a strengthening of the dollar against dramatically weakened currencies, but also resulting in a bonanza for U.S. Treasuries and our equity market. Despite the much vaunted position that gold would flourish in chaotic, economic meltdowns, both central banks and investors eschewed the logic of gold investing. So it seems to me that golds best chance rests with the potential challenge to the dollars hegemony. Should the Euro gain stability and even produce a bond market to rival ours, particularly if that stability is partially attributed to the sort of conservative monetary and gold-based currency that the Germans desire, then we might at least expect to see golds price rise significantly ( $350 to $400 ) because golds price in dollars will rise with a weaker dollar. However, I see a significant caveat to such an eventuality: significant problems will seriously challenge the success of the EMU. Principal among those difficulties will be the significant unemployment in Europe, currently at a rate of nearly 12 percent! Such a condition will prove very troublesome for the European Monetary Institute ( EMI ) in Frankfurt because of Europes powerful unions and socialistic penchant for cradle to grave security for workers. Thus the European Trade Union Confederation ( ETUC ) will need to practice wage and benefit moderation, a rather hard sell when 12 million already are unemployed. The hyperbolic unemployment has already caused calls for increased unemployment benefits! Whether or not tight fiscal monetary policies, necessary to insure the success of the EMI, are compatible with traditional European wage and benefit expectations should prove the ultimate litmus paper test of the new confederation. And other land mines await the new union in the form of sharp discrepancies that exist between countries with stagnant economies like the French and Germans, plagued by the very labor difficulties I have described, and surging economies like Ireland and Portugal. What will the new central bank do if two or three economies require monetary stimulus while the EMI pursues a policy of fiscal responsibility? These and other issues make the Euro a long shot. And should it fail, where will liquidity go? You guessed it. The dollar and U.S. markets will reap a second coming of world investors with no other place to hide. And such an eventuality will surely result in a continued gold bear.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:38 - ID#284255)
Charts @ 720 minutes


Do these charts point to a beginning of a downtrend
Or the end of a downtrend?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:41 - ID#60253)
My post today of the Euro outcome, "Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 16:59 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:", will be the last for a many days. Much is happening now and time does not wait. I hope to return before the changes , as a move above $360 will show the world that oil has moved for the Euro currency. We will know soon!

Thank You

Mr. sharfin, I thank you

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:44 - ID#208393)
@Preacher & Novice
Re. GEO large bloc trades:

Thanks for your comments. I still don't fully understand. If these shares have no significance, then they should not appear as volume statistics. It appears misleading.

Preacher: "prearranged trade in which a large amount of shares move
from one account to another."
Are these trades between shareholders or between brokerage houses? Sorry to be so dense on the subject. BTW - did not sell house ( yet )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:45 - ID#266105)
@Voyeur Professor

With you on the EMU/Euro. It has a long row to hoe.
It's path to present has been of difficulties, more of
the same ahead. It's no done deal reaching it's nearest
deadline intact as planned nor the deadlines to come
for acceptance and widespread use. Sh*t happens. Should
plans proceed accordingly, there's no 100% assurance of
durability, nor any plans drawn up for reversion to
sovereign currencies. Count me skeptical, Missouri,
show me.

What the Euro and its machinations mean for gold
is anybody's guess, I tell myself just another uncertainty
so self, deal with it.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:46 - ID#263184)
@Voyeur Professor....unfortunately for us goldbugs, your comments
make a lot of sense. I have always considered the creation of another currency as unnecessary unless it would have significant meaning. Your comments clearly state the other side of the case and your points are well taken.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:50 - ID#210114)
Germany, Schroeder and the Euro
Skippy, SPD leader Gerhard Schroeder is also committed to the Euro. Last week the Bundestag and the Bundesrat all voted that Germany accept the Euro. Schroeder's SPD was part of that positive vote.

While the German people are ambivalent, the German political leadeship is probably the most keen of all European countries for the single currency

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:52 - ID#401237)
US Swap

Tuesday April 28, 4:06 pm Eastern Time

US swap spreads higher, CP-LIBOR basis swap widens

At the short end of the market, swap spreads followed a volatile Treasury-Eurodollar spread. Two-year swap spreads ended at 38.25 basis points and three-year spreads at 40 basis points, slightly wider from Monday's close.

With U.S. Federal Reserve officials giving hints of a tightening bias in monetary policy through several press interviews, dealers have pushed up the commercial paper rate, in turn widening the CP-LIBOR basis swap spread.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:53 - ID#254112)
Voyeur Professor (Gold and the EMI)20:26
I have the feeling you are right in your assessment.
It seems that gold and the EURO are mutually depending on each other. The EURO can only become strong through gold backing, and gold can only appreciate its market value in US$ terms when the EURO-gold marriage works.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:55 - ID#28594)
What if--

Didnt even make it to the pool--because something just clicked into place: What if--
what we are witnessing is the GREATEST mis-allocation of capital since capital appeared on the scene.

Think about it: official Ecu, private Ecu, Official SDR, private SDR, etc. Probably others,but those two for SURE!

How does business price when value is hidden? Why is value hidden? Because the medium of exchange is not a standard, it is the product of negotiation! It can vary +/- X% for the same widget going to different parts of the globe.

This is the secret at the core of all that is hidden; they have established a multi-tiered, floating currency game that hides whatever needs to be hidden.

The problem is, it also hides the knowledge critical to efficient capital allocation. The entire thing is one BIG derivative! And capital IS [and has been] misallocated...
I believe this is it.
Into the pool. really bbl

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:55 - ID#342315)
Before you leave, could you take a look at my post @ 09:19? It would help in my timing. Many thanx again, Charlie

(Tue Apr 28 1998 20:56 - ID#210114)
Euro will not be 'backed' by Gold
To all: The Euro will not be backed by gold. The ECB may choose to hold a certain percentage of its international reserves in gold but that is NOT gold 'backing'.

The US hold 8000 tonnes of gold as part of its international reserves and yet none on this forum would arge that the US dollar is backed by gold.

Lets not confuse holding international reserves with gold 'backing'.

Lurker 777
(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:02 - ID#317247)
Japan Nikkei 225
Why is Japan one hour late opening?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:07 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcripts updated

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:11 - ID#284255)
Dow moves lower as snapback rally fizzles

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:14 - ID#410215)
..... 223 and all .....

223 -

The market is not thin, it is now theoretical.

Palladium is nowhere to be had.

Learned some interesting info on PGM demand, use, and future with my meeting with Jacques Lubin.

Some speculation as to the Tiger fund has been bandied about. Seems an explanation for where supplies are coming from, how much Tiger is holding, and what Tiger may be doing may be had here.

If this turns to be the case, I will have to trot out another year old post of mine containing a prediction never made here before, nor never after. Bold in its decisiveness, shrewd and cunning in its subtlety, and not written all that badly.

We will speak of this after a time, yes?


(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:16 - ID#410215)
..... Rolllllll ANOTHER one .....

..... Just like the OTHER one .....

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:17 - ID#210114)
The Euro is and will be a fiat currency; just like the US dollar which many on this forum have little faith in.

The key issue for the Euro and gold is not a question of 'backing' but a question of perception. How do the central banks of the world percieve gold as an assett?

If the ECB makes gold 25% of its international reserves this means that the central banks of the world percieve gold to be an important reserve assett. As such many other people including central banks will have their faith restored and purchases may be made driving the POG upwards.

On the other hand is they choose to make their gold reserves only 5% of the total this indicates that the CBs have lost faith in gold as a reserve assett. Thus other central banks may seel and people in general will loose faith and thus sales shall be made driving the POG lower.

So, let's end the myth of Euro gold backing. The POG will be driven by perceptions and faith.

Live Long and Propser.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:17 - ID#340302)
@VOYEUR of my favorite posters...
...and one of the many Kitcoites I overlooked in my stream-of-consciousness thank you I posted the other day. No offense intended as I was caught up with excitement at that time.

The professor is one of the best analysts I have read on this forum. Very incisive and articulate.

His post concerning the European Union is, as usual, another example of astute analysis.

However, I would ask him to consider one notable point:

When Asia had its economic setback last year, the American and European economies were perceived as stable at worst, strong at best. Their respective indigenous bond and stock markets were viewed by Asians as
safe havens, with America's financial markets perceived as being the best.

Now, fast forward to '98. America's markets have been in a virtual state of verticality for many months now with more and more mainstream analysts acknowledging the amazing bubble that has developed ( note the cover of this month's "ECONOMIST" magazine ) and the inevitable POP awaiting it

We have just witnessed the first "mini-collapse" in domestic bond and equities markets upon the mere suggestion of a slight, 1/4% interest rate hike.

My point is this: if the month of May proves to be a major debacle for American equities and bonds ( and if the troubles persist and confirm a Wall Street bear market ) , then I believe that any problems in the concretization of the European Union will NOT result in a capital flight into American markets. In other words, Europeans will NOT flee from one currency storm into another. That, sir, is the difference between now and then.

Professor, as I posted sometime ago, when the currency wars soon manifest in an environment of global stagflation, then I would expect competitive currency devaluations and/or interest rate hikes to take place amongst the major global economic regions, namely America, Europe, and Asia.

If the Euro does NOT manifest, then such a development would simply exacerbate the "number" of competitive currency devaluations/interest rate hikes as the European nations struggle to preclude massive capital outflows amongst themselves and America.

Again, in such an environment of tremendous, pandemic currency turmoil, flight capital must ( and will ) seek out precious metal investment as the ultimate safe haven.




(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:20 - ID#410215)
..... The Japanese? Late? .....

Sevens -

They must have slept in.

Part of the conspiracy to dump all US securities back on our heads.

How this fits into the sleeping late gig, I know not.

Ask around hereabouts, I'm sure theories will abound.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:21 - ID#340302)
@ALL...again, I will post my little GOLD report later.... my wife has dinner ready.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:23 - ID#210114)
Nikkei Down 250 points

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:24 - ID#284255)
RJ - my pleasure^23006@.ee7367b/2>^23006@.ee7367b/2

Bell: Alright, back now to Major Ed Dames. Major, somebody just sent me a fax. We were talking about the American economy being in such rosy condition right now. John sends the following: "Dear Art, is Major Dames aware that after his last appearance on your program....which was also on a Friday....the following Monday the price of gold began rising. Since his appearance, the price of gold has gone from $280 dollars per ounce to $310 dollars today." Now, that means somebody, Ed, knows something because normally as the Market rises the price of gold will fall but now, conversely.....for some strange reason....even though the market seems to be doing relatively fact, stellar.....people are beginning to buy gold. That means somebody knows something.

Dames: Art, I think you're going to see the price of gold go up to $2,000 dollars an ounce before too long.

Bell: $2,000 an ounce.

Dames: Or even higher.

Bell: That is not investment advice folks.....we don't give that......but that is a prediction.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:32 - ID#26669)
RJ so its worse than I thought?
"For the love of God, Montresor" E. Poe

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:33 - ID#401237)
Summers encouraged by Asia

Tuesday April 28, 3:35 pm Eastern Time

Summers encouraged by Asia, wary on Indonesia

WASHINGTON, April 28 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Tuesday he was more encouraged by events in Asia now than a few months ago, but the situation in Indonesia remained
``extraordinarily difficult.''

``Thankfully we can talk in a much more encouraged way about the region than we could three months, even one month ago,'' Summers told a technology conference in San Francisco. A text of his remarks was released in Washington in advance.

``These are good times for the American economy,'' he said. ``It is now clear that America will grow faster in this decade than Japan and Europe. Their four-decade-long story of convergence has ended and America is pulling further ahead.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:36 - ID#284255)
Comeback for Golden Oldie
Gold Price Set to Rally?

Gold Analysis from Bankers Trust
With a twist on warrants

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:39 - ID#253228)
S&P500 homegrown charts

John B__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:42 - ID#211105)
I think you are looking at Tuesday's Nikkei results. Tokyo exchange is supposedly closed Wednesday ( tonight ) . See WSJ quote below:

"Analysts expect trading to be fairly thin this week because of the Golden Week holidays that run through May 5. The Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed Wednesday for a public holiday, but will be open Thursday and Friday. Then, it will be closed again Monday and Tuesday."

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:43 - ID#267344)
Japanese markets are closed today.

Voyeur Professor
(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:43 - ID#231101)
Gold "backed" Euro


I agree with your comment regarding the common use of a Euro that is gold "backed.," a rubric that of course would imply some sort of gold standard which surely does not accurately characterize the proposal to provide the new central bank with gold "reserves." So I yield to your important distinction, though I did not use the phrase "gold backed" but "gold based," a difference you may argue is merely semantic. But I used gold "based" for lack of a more appropriate phrase to describe the EMIs debate on the role gold will play in the new monetary union. As you surely will grant, the argument for gold reserves rests with the widely held view that gold might provide the Euro a measure of legitimacy. I believe it has already been pointed out that those countries who have maintained their gold reserves have, to date, largely avoided currency turmoil. So I would insist that my view has a defensible rationale; namely, that any announcement of significant gold reserves by the EMI should prove bullish for gold in that it, temporarily at least, diminishes the argument that gold has no monetary function in this era. Possibly my position strikes you as an equivication, but I assure you I do not wish to evoke the importance of Shakespeare's nostrum, "What's in a name?"

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:45 - ID#255217)
Who are we?
My first recollection of a predisposition to fancy gold was when our 5th grade teacher read us a tale of buried gold coins. I tried to track down the name and author of the story years later with no success. I would STILL like to know! My next brush with gold coins and their mistique was when we studied the story of Silas Marner in high school. I thought to myself that old Silas couldn't be all bad, liking gold coins the way he did. I still think like that. "Way to go, Silas!"

I bought my first gold coin, a US Liberty Head double eagle when I was 23 years old. It cost $49.00, no sales tax. BU, too. I kept it for years and then my ( ex ) mother-in-law DROPPED it, leaving a small flat spot on one edge. That may have been the beginning of the series of events that ultimately ended in the divorce. I sold the coin a few years later, because every time I saw that flat spot it reminded me of that horrible day ( and the marraige ) .

The little pile of gold coins has grown over the years and I never tire of visiting them in their haven of safety at the banik. I add to the pile from time to time as finances permit and delight in every addition. Silas would have been proud, for we would have been kindred spirits indeed, if only in fantasy.

I guess the point of all this is that no matter how hard the establishment tries, with its lies, distortions, disinformation and half-truths, aided and abbetted by monitarists, Kenesians, central bankers and others of their ilk, there will always be the few, the Chosen, WHO WILL NOT BETRAY THE FAITH! We call them gold bugs. And I am proud to shout, "I AM ONE!" Sleep well, Silas; the torch still burns brightly!

BTW, this post might be more dramatic if it was read while "The Battle Hymn of The Republic" was playing softly in the background.

Keep the faith, guys.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:50 - ID#267344)
Seems to imply US steel is overpriced

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:57 - ID#28994)
Germany - Schroeder - Euro
Polls in Germany show the citizens are against the Euro - not ambivalent. Politics being politics, if Schroeder runs on a platform opposed to the Euro, it could well become, as an American would say, "toast".

(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:58 - ID#410215)
..... Smiley Thingie .....

Nicky, Mate!

I always read your poetry. I know your dad's style by now, but I suspect you toss in some of your own. You do your father proud.

Thank you for the Kudos to the mighty Kauri.

I must now learn of these ancients.

Henryd -

I see your point. The first sentence of that post was directed towards you. I can see how you would like no association with the rest of it. Twice last eve, I did offend thee.

I have had the habit of responding to a post, and then running off on all sorts of tangents. I rarely know myself where they will lead. Others have been confused by my response to them, but I get on a roll sometimes and you gotta' grab the Muse when its near. Sorry about the association.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 21:59 - ID#267344)
To all you "gold bugs"
Why does it have to be "Gold Bug." Why not something a little cooler, like "gold monger" or "gold collector" or "opportunist" or just "the Dude." I will never be caught dead calling myself a gold bug. No way! Not me, I don't care how much of a traitor you may think I am. Too hard core for me.
- c

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:00 - ID#348129)
@Y2K- ONE MORE PROBLEM FOR JAPAN - " "Japan will melt" Mr de Jager said."
25 April 1998, NZ Business Herald - The reality of millennium meltdown

Adam Gifford talks to a year 2000 bug guru spreading the word here.

Canadian millennium bug guru Peter de Jager has boiled his year 2000 bug message down to three statements.

One, our systems are broken: "Not all of them, just most of them, and usually in mission-critical areas, because they are older, larger and more likely to be affected because of the date standard of the methodology we used.

"Two, we have a deadline, December 31, 1999. Many of our systems will break earlier. I believe most will break in the last 30 days of 1999.

"Three, we in the information technology industry are not good at delivering projects on time."

Since 1991, Mr de Jager has been speaking to prime ministers and presidents, chief executives and financial officers, urging them to take action before it is too late.

His Web site at is visited by more than 400,000 people a month. He is constantly on the road, "preaching to the choir" - addressing conferences such as one in Wellington last week attended by year 2000 project managers from businesses, banks and government departments.

"The reality is most organisations are still not working on this."

On his first day on the job in the computer industry 20 years ago, Mr de Jager saw there was a glaring error: the year was written as two digits, not four. "All programmers knew when 99 went to 00, things would not work. This was not hidden."

The advice Mr de Jager and thousands of other young programmers were given was: "Go away, this won't be a problem for 20 years, we'll worry about it then."

Fast forward to 1989 and Mr de Jager is watching the first episode of James Burke's Connections television programme, which dwelt on how the 1965 blackout of the Eastern seaboard of the United States was caused by a single switch in a power station.

"There was an image in my mind of billions of date calculations which at the stroke of midnight 1999 would turn into Cinderella's pumpkin."

It took a couple of years for Mr de Jager, then an ordinary programmer/analyst with a column in a small magazine, a nobody in the greater scheme of things, to accept that no one was doing anything about the problem. He started beating the drum, driven in part by the people treating him like a nutter for raising the issue.

"I've looked at the code, 1 know it will break. It's an observation, not a prediction."

While weary from his years on the road, Mr de Jager refuses to succumb to pessimism. "We have the people, the skills, the tools to fix what we need to fix. What it needs is effort, concerted, focused effort. The year 2000 industry uses a word borrowed from the emergency room - triage. Identify what must be done so the patient survives. The rest can wait."

There are no silver bullets. The retired IBM engineer who surfaced recently promising a universal fix may at best have an interesting patch to a small part of the problem, Mr de Jager said, but it is not a fix.

Bill Gates will not solve it. Microsoft is part of the problem, not the solution. "If you have to choose between installing Windows 98 and fixing a mission-critical accounting application, which would you choose? Windows 98 has more colours and recognises a scanner. Big hairy deal. Sorry, I'm trying to save my business."

"Estimates of how much the world will need to spend to fix the problem are meaningless. It is enough to know that major banks and insurance companies, not known for spending a dollar without a sound business case, have disclosed their year 2000 project budgets are in the hundreds of millions of dollars."

Not all though. Before his short visit to New Zealand, Mr de Jager was in Japan. A recent magazine survey of banks worldwide drew responses from 48 Japanese banks, including some of the world's largest. In total they estimated their year 2000 projects would cost US$259 million ( NZ$463 million ) .

'In the US, Citicorp is spending $600 million. The CBA in Australia is spending $100 million. Barclays and Natwest are spending 100 million each. It doesnt take many banks to be spending more than the Japanese in total.

"Japan will melt" Mr de Jager said.

That is something to consider for those whose business relies on trade with Japan.

The year 2000 problem reveals how interconnected our modern, technology-driven world is. Mr de Jager estimates about half of United States and Canadian companies are running year 2000 projects, maybe a third of British companies, with the Nordic countries, Australia and New Zealand also in the leading pack.

Most of the European countries have made changing their systems for European Monetary Union a higher priority. Russia cannot afford to do anything, Asia is in denial, and Latin America will do something "manana".

The year 2000 fix methodology should now be well understood. It starts with a full inventory, every cubic metre of the business checked for devices with power going in, which may have embedded chips: "Software on silicon," with the same poor technology that makes software applications fail.

Once the repair or replacement is done, mission-critical systems must be tested and tested again whenever new hardware or software is introduced.

"What is mission-critical? Safety, human lives must be important."

Mr de Jager likened the exercise of searching for faulty date routines to searching for an indeterminate number of needles in a haystack. "You can find them by eye, take out the hay piece by piece. You can automate the process, but you will miss some. Or you can strip naked and dive in."

"That will be the reality. We won't get all our code fixed. The real test will come in 2000 when we all get naked and dive into that hay pile."

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:01 - ID#31868)
clone 21:59
How about an American?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:01 - ID#235378)
Jeil - Would you please explain these charts.
I think I understand that the plot becomes a prediction and the fact that it matches the ( to be confirmed ) weekly is evidence of past accuracy. Maybe I should be referred to an earlier post. Looks Interesting.

Thanks ... WL

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:06 - ID#347447)
You may be in the swim tonite, but you're certainly not "all wet" with your multi-tiered valuation enlightenment. This is, in essence, what Another has been alluding to...indeed stating outright. Who negotiates What with Whom is another, tangled matter, but a little bit of metal can sometimes go a longer way than a lot of paper. Especially when the expectation that its value will increase relative to that paper puts not only a present value on it, but an even more enticing future one as well. So much the better to lower its price for a while in the "free" market, where it can be accumulated away from the neglectful general public and the realm of ordinary investors living by the apparent ordinary reality. A reality that is rapidly approaching the verge of extinction. To forego the apparent purchase power of fiat money, which is real indeed inasmuch as it buys commodities, materiel, interest and labor, for a future valuation must certainly indicate that which is to be valued more highly in the future will be valued far in excess of what it is valued today. What appears to be a "loss" now is an "investment." What will appear to be a "profit" in future is merely the preservation of present wealth. And what is it we here are all so fond of saying is a great preserver of wealth? It is gold, yes?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:06 - ID#344239)
Published on: TuesdayApril281998

Jobless rate hits post-war high on day of grim news

Updated at 7.10pm:Japan was hit by another raft of dire economic data on Tuesday, with unemployment hitting a post-war high, business confidence at new lows and a junk-bond rating for Japan Airlines.
Figures for March showed unemployment in Japan at 3.9 per cent in March, while new job offers slipped for a seventh month.

Economists had expected the rate to remain at 3.6 per cent for a second straight month.

More disturbing was a Labour Ministry report that showed just 58 jobs available for every 100 applicants in March, the lowest level in 15 years. Recent college graduates and early retirees found it hardest to get work in March, while new jobs were hardest to find in the automotive and basic materials sectors.

Classified job advertisements were also sharply down in March - falling 12.9 per cent on March 1997, according to the Association of Job Journals of Japan.

The overall work force shrank by 210,000 in March, the Management and Co-ordination Agency said - a drop of 0.3 per cent from a year earlier and the second straight slide after two years of increases.

Only retailers and services companies added workers, though many of those jobs traditionally pay less than positions in manufacturing.

''The numbers reflect a pitiful job market,'' said Shinya Iijima, director of the Labour Ministry's Labour Force Statistics Division.

Meanwhile, an industry survey showed small and medium companies were at their most pessimistic ever in April about their business prospects.

The economic sentiment index for smaller companies, which employ 70 per cent of the total workforce, remained below the boom-bust line of 50 for the 25th straight month, Shoko Chukin Bank said. The index fell to 37.3 in April, 1.1 point down from March.

Meanwhile, US ratings agency Standard and Poor's cut its long-term rating for Japan Airlines to junk bond status.

Also cut were the public information ratings for the country's other carriers, All Nippon Airways ( ANA ) and Japan Air System ( JAS ) .

''The downgrades reflect Standard and Poor's concerns over an increasingly competitive operating environment in the Japanese aviation market, the carriers' limited actions so far to deal effectively with such challenges, and weak prospects for their financial profiles in the coming years,'' it said.




Voyeur Professor
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:06 - ID#231101)
response to Farfel


I have occasionally insisted that I lack the technical expertise that many, like yourself and others, can muster, but I thank you anyway. I have already seen myself in print so I assure you I do not wish to enhance my image here. Like most of you I scan this site because I want to protect my gold investment with as much insight as I can muster, though I have often been disheartened by the fractiousness too prevalent here. I dont have the time to fully respond to your comments, a publishers deadline and papers command my primary attention until the semester ends, but I do want to caution you on your almost "a priori" assumption that May will bring a bear market. You "may" be right; many of your posts demonstrate your insightful views of this market. But my hope for gold does not rest with an apocalyptic view that the U.S. market must collapse for gold to prosper; only that the U.S. dollar hegemony must be challenged enough to draw liquidity from our shores. I dont know if such an eventuality will produce a market swoon, but it should prove fortunate for the gold market.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:07 - ID#284255)
RJ - Tane Mahuta
Tane Mahuta
A tribute to RJ who was recently likened to a Kauri tree.

Tane Mahuta is the name given to the oldest and largest Kauri known in the New Zealand forests.
Tane Mahuta is also the Maori God and Creator of the Forests, the God who separated Rangi the Sky Father from Papa the great Earth Mother; who bought Marama the moon to lighten the dark night for the lonely Papa, set the stars in the sky to beautify the cloak of night, the five stars of the Southern Cross to adorn the cloak.

Tane Mahuta

Tane Mahuta
Two thousand years and more
Have armoured your strength
Fashioned each forest grace
And shaped, most venerable
The long slow centuries trace.

Strong was the growing heart
When Plato looked to Socrates
Strong when Anthony in vain
Sought Cleopatra's lovely hand
When Jesus walked the desert roads
Of Israel's ancient land.

Mighty the great tree
When Kupe
Charted the unknown sea
And Ao-te-Aroa, the long white land
When Tama and Ngotoro
In the canoe, Arawa
( Which we would call the shark )
Breasted the white combers
And drove, deep and hard his keel
Into Maketu, the safety
Of deep golden sand.

In these our days, your days
Men have set foot upon the Moon
And Voyager sails the gulfs
Between the stars.

Mighty now and venerable
We bow the head to you
And , Tane Mahuta,
Such is the mystery of Life
That there be men
Short lived indeed
But strong enduring spirits
Who may well be likened
Thou mighty living being
Unto thee.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:08 - ID#26669)
Reify re email and PGM's
Sorry, I think my email is messed up again. I had to download your message and look at it to get to the written part but the pictures came in well. Then I looked back at the mail server and the text was there! But I agree with your stance about the long term investments. It fits my personality much better than trying to scamper in and out of the market. One is better able to sleep nights IMHO

Have you been following RJ's posts about PGM's? They are going somewhere in massive quantities but where? IMHO

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:08 - ID#410215)
..... Poe Folks .....

223 -

Seems so.. Indeedy. Thus Quoth the Raven

Poe also said well.. wrote but he probably said it too.

"In criticism I will be bold, and as sternly, absolutely just with friend and foe. From this purpose nothing shall turn me."

Sharefin -

That link led nowhere.

Away.. tochantthemostusefulchanteverpostedtodate:

Poke chops, Poke chops

Greezy greezy

Gold's gonn'a fly

Ez ez

Now that's


(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:12 - ID#348129)
@Y2K - EUROPE also in BIG trouble - This is akin to a train engineer asleep at the wheel at 150 kph
Gartner Predicts: Half of European companies have made no Y2K progress

by Jonathan Lambeth in Paris

Half of European companies have made no meaningful progress on Year 2000 conversion and must begin their triage planning now, as the complete compliance train has already left.

This is the no-nonsense message from the man who has been labelled "the doom and gloom merchant of Europe" by his colleagues for his storm warning approach to the Year 2000 issue.

"I am absolutely flabbergasted that so many organisations have not started or done any meaningful work. When those asleep at the wheel realise how much work there is to be done the panic will be heard throughout the entire industry," said Andy Kite, research director and Y2K guru at Gartner Group, speaking at the company's Predicts 98 conference in Paris this week.

According to its latest figures, only eight per cent of organisations have even got to be 'mission-critical compliant', on the Gartner measurement scale. Another 20 per cent have reached the planning, costing and work begun on mission critical systems phase, which according to Gartner is when original costs estimates usually increase increase five times.

Kyte noted that many organisations, particularly in the manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries, have now started assessing the cost of increasing inventories to provide a buffer against any failure of national infrastructures such as transportation and utilities.

Problems in the supply chain are most likely to hit companies, he continued, leading to litigation over losses caused by the failure to fulfil contract terms on delivery of goods or services.

Merrill Lynch, US finance house, said this week it would stop doing business with firms that had not dealt adequately with the Year 2000 problem.

Edward Goldberg, chief technology officer at the company, was reported as saying at an industry conference that the company was spending $275 million and using 600 people on the project and he expected trading partners to also be compliant or be cut off.

In July, 15 US finance companies will test a $6 billion program that has been developed to conduct industry-wide testing at the end of this year and into 1999 in order to ensure systems are compliant and to spot those companies that have not done sufficient work.

 1998 VNU Business Publications Ltd

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:14 - ID#348129)
@Logging Out
Ain't No G* action tonight......

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:19 - ID#253228)
The analysis begins with fitting a trend line to the data using a fifth degree polynomial. That trend line is shown in the chart with the actual weekly data. A series of sine waves ( over 300 ) are fitted to the percentage data based on statistical test. Then the sine waves plus the trend are projected into the future.

The reason I presented the percentage chart is simply to show that the market is very high relative to its trend ( mean ) . Clearly it oscillates around the trend. Rarely does it get more than 30% above or below the trend. There is a law of statistics which says that things have a tendency to return to their mean. It is my view that the movement around the trend is cyclical and that it is a complex synthesis of many many cycles, each of which can be identified.

I have had some problem in coming up with the combination of cycles that match the past and then give a reasonable projection of the future. Last weekend I think I discovered the programming error that has given me spotty results in previous attempts. I guess in my enthusiasm I posted the charts which I should probably kept to myself.

I have some charts on Homestake that had worked a little better for me than my previous S&P projections and the programming change I made improved them also. Gold bugs don't want to hear those projections.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:19 - ID#347447)
I believe you related to us that you are young. That is good. We are seeing a few young ones here at Kitco lately. I, when I was young and bohemian , looked upon those who collected coins in an even more askance manner than those who collected stamps. I tried stamp collecting for a couple of weeks as a kid, but those billion mark stamps from Germany made my head buzz so I gave it up. Little did I realize it was my first encounter with Inflation. I looked at gold coin buyers with the same youthful disdain I held for old men with their eyes pushed up agasinst the newspaper stock listings in the bus or train. Gold bug? ME? Perish forbid. But time wounds all heels, and slowly, as in the "Invasion of the Body Snatchers," you will be drawn more and more to the Big Yellow. At first to make a few bucks. Then to appreciate how money really works. And finally to discover the sublime moral philosophy of true value and the reality of real things. And then you can look forward, with glee, the spittle drooling down your stubbled chin, grandchildren playing beside you at the hearth, the light of the flames dancing across the faces of the bullion coins you absently clink in your trembling hands, vision of apocalypse dancing in your head. Something to look forward to. Join us...come...don't struggle...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:22 - ID#410215)
..... Sheller & Clone .....

Resistance is futile.

You will be assimilated.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:22 - ID#287367)
@ Ladybug
Soory to take so long to answer your question. If you look at a daily chart of ( for example ) ABX ( Barrick Gold ) , last Wednesday the price gapped above the previous day ( Tuesday's ) high ( 22 7/8 ) with a low price Wednesday of $23 per share. Thursday and Friday the price action in ABX was contained above $22 15/16 per share. Yesterday ( Monday ) the price gapped back down below $22 7/8 ( I believe the Monday's high was $22 11/16 ) . Today ( Tuesday ) , the high was $22 7/8. So we still have a small gap remaining between $22 7/8 and $22 15/16 which isolates the price action of Wed-Fri in an "island" above the current price action. In technical analysis, such a gap acts similarly to an air gap between two pieces of electrically conducting material in that it will take a strong jolt of voltage ( energy ) to "jump" the gap, because air is a poor conductor of electricity and acts as "resistance" to the flow of current. The bottom line is that such "islands" of price activity often act as turning points, reversing a previously existing upward trend to a downward trend, leading to lower prices in the following days and weeks. :- )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:32 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller

Afraid it's too late for clone. Seen it all happen that way before. He has gazed upon the face of Agamemnon. ( he was this ancient Greek King who sacked Troy and had a lot of Gold )

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:35 - ID#224149)
Another Eclipse over Indonesia late this Year and next let the Australians beware.
Gusto Oro ---Lets be Correct-After Turkey to the Syria and Iraq order Right through the middle of Iran 0n to Pakistan and then ending in India This is Saros cycle 145 at 18 degrees Leo 21 minutes Interpretation by Ptolemy writing in second century AD who had access to eclipse records back to 747 BC --Denotes the Death of Many Famous leaders. Today many studies are bringing forward new ideas in the interpretation of eclipses especially from men like Robert Carl Jansky .One day the hope will to able to predict earthquakes and the saving of millions of lives Away for some carrot juice

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:35 - ID#410215)
..... Sharefin's Share .....

In the age of a Kauri

Who would have foreseen

From bobbing vessels

Hewn from its mighty flesh

That we may one day look upon

An intimate view

Of tornadoes on the sun

You do me Honour.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:38 - ID#31868)
Hey SHELLER! Since you are going to be President, can we paint the
White House. I mean, it kinda sends the wrong message don't ya think in such a diverse world. The pillars can be gold and silver leaf of course.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:42 - ID#280222)
ECU Gold backing........
Does anyone know for sure when the ECU is going to decide on the amount of gold backing the Euro? Is it this weekend ( May 2 ) or is it next July?.....Thank you

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:46 - ID#31959)
Crystal Ball
The bottom line is that such "islands" of price activity often act as turning points,

reversing a previously existing upward trend to a downward trend, leading to lower prices in the following days

and weeks. :- )

Thank you, for a great explanation, technically it seems that the POG might go down ?! How about the coming May announcment about the EURO, if they decide 20 -30 %, a price increase is certain/ yes ?!

............oh, I am so confused, from which direction, will the wind blow???? Is this gold dust settling down ?? ....or a gust of dust, being blown up?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:48 - ID#252432)
Another/USA Gold
The writings of ANOTHER are treated as being being either from the mouth of a prophet, or that of a prankster, or somewhere in between.

One who gives the writings a great deal of credence is Michael J. Kosares. As far as I can tell, Michael appears to know quite a bit about the gold markets. He also just happens to be the president of Centennial Precious Metals, which is the publisher of the USA Gold web site.

A regular feature in Michael's monthly "News & Views" newsletter is an advertisement for "In the Footsteps of Giants" - a collection of Another's postings here on Kitco ( $25.00 - major credit cards accepted ) .

In Another's posting earlier this evening, he refers directly to today's daily commentary at the USA Gold web site.

I spoke at great length with Michael several months ago. He was as enthusiastic about Another on telephone as he is in his newsletter. These two apparently, well, "respect" the opinions of one another.

My point? I don't really have one. I just thought some people here might be interested.

A few words to live by ( ? ) :

Nothing is as it appears,
Anything is possible,
No one knows as much as you think they do.



Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:48 - ID#377235)
Eclipse (Poorboys)
Yes, Poorboys, Iraq, Iran, and even Afghanistan have excellent locations from which to view the eclipse. That stretch from Bulgaria to Afghanistan is not exactly viewer friendly political tensionwise, but I'm travelling with a cousin who was stationed in Turkey with NATO, and I have been to the Middle East once before myself. Given the volatility of the area in question, I don't think it's too superstitious to worry that an eclipse might set something off. --AG

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:49 - ID#235378)
Jeil - This approach intrigues me.
It reminds me of a similar approach described by J.M.Hurst in a book he wrote around 1970 titled "The Profit Magic Of Stock Transaction Timing" published by Prentice Hall. You may want to check it out and compare notes. Hurst's background, I believe, was with space rockets and sound waves. I am not a mathemetician but have studied such methods.

Are you familiar with the Delta Phenomenon as presented by Welles Wilder? You may find this interesting.

Thanks for the reply ... WL

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:50 - ID#224149)
Goodnight All
In my travels to England I found Gold paper crossing tables in secret places Like I.O.U No conspiracy Logically think this out ---Bart has 30 k oz of gold coins to sell Over 400 million people in N.A and he has not sold out. ---By the way Comex Gold is paper trading paper ---see how simple it is Another Away to bed.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:57 - ID#267344)
Tolerant, RJ, Auric, Sheller and all the rest
I am with you. I don't believe it, I know it. I am not young though, I'm old - I'm almost 26 already. You people have taught me so much, and openned up a whole new world to me. It makes my head spin. Tell me, at what time does my heart turn into gold? The American issue - The USG still claims me as US property, but that does not make me an American. I am American because this land is my home. I am also an Oregonian, an Earthling, and a free man. I am aligned only with morality, freedom, and justice ( oh yeah, that includes gold! ) . Should I decide to be a colonist on Mars, I will be a Martian. Most of all, I am clone! But, do I have to be a "gold bug?" It's not the "gold" part that bothers me, it's the whole "bug" thing.
Respectfully yours,
- c

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:58 - ID#307271)
@Jeil, Re: Plot /Analysis
Very nice projection of the S&P. Briefly, are you using Sigma-Plot or Origin or some other plotting methodology, and how do you handle-and- input the raw data ( data source and form ) ? I work with higher order polynomials a lot, so it seems to me that unless you truncate the sine functions as 5th order polynomials as well, this projection could be difficult. If you need to communicate offline, so indicate. Thanks.


That HM projection would be mui interesting.

John B__A
(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:58 - ID#211105)
Crystal Ball
Lucid explanation of islands; however since ABX made a high close today of 22 7/8, isn't the gap as closed as can be to 23 15/16?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 22:58 - ID#340302)
@VOYEUR usual, a good response...
...professor, please understand that when I speak of a May collapse, I do not do so on an a priori basis. I simply have a strong feeling about it.
Moreover, when I speak about collapse, I do not speak in terms of "apocalypse," as you seem to think.

In my mind, a collapse would be in the order of 4000-5000 points downward, either in a fairly rapid downspike spread over a week or in the form of a chronic, sustained several year bear. This kind of market fall does not leave the world in any form of a Stone Age condition. However, it does shake out the rampant overspeculation in the markets and ends the de facto verticality we have seen over the last year. Most importantly, it returns the market to its proper function, namely a future indicator rather than a barometer of current Clinton Era euphoria.

Again, it's merely a strong feeling, not a divine proclamation.



(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:01 - ID#22956)
savage....a little something regarding EMU/ECU....
towards the end. but it doesn't talk of who will hold how much but there is a meeting this weekend. Yes. food

how are ya doin thy savage one?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:04 - ID#22956)
Your new kitco name is......
gold-dude.....not clone. Bart, make it so.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:12 - ID#238422)

Don't be so modest, you do have an opinion.

As to my opinion, I always believed that
"Another" is a fine WRITTER...figured it out
5 months ago, I recall...His English was too good,
by the foreigner can talk the way Another did.

Once again, congratulations, you are the first to
give an exact address...

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:15 - ID#31868)
May I suggest to you that you do have a heart of gold. One reason of many I say this is that you wish to use gold and silver as money. You wish neither to cheat nor owe. These things are not within the desire of a golden heart.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:15 - ID#253228)
WhisperingLow - Re: Hurst
Years ago I was working on an audit for a small firm where an 82 year old secretary and I often talked at break time. She and their similarly aged accountant wanted to order Howard Ruff's newsletter and talked me into paying 1/3. One of the issues recommended a report on gold by the Aden sisters of Costa Rica. We also sent for the report and I became very interested in gold when they in May of 1982 predicted the bottom to be around $300 near June, 1982 which turned out to be a near perfect call. That was probably their only correct call, but by the time I figured that out I was hooked on the idea of cycles which, in a rudimentary form, was their basis.

One night a few years later I was at the home of the 82 year old lady for a party ( first time I saw a old person stoned ) and her neice loaned me a hard cover copy of the Hurst book which I photocopied. ( I later found it in paperback. ) While I understood the ideas, I did not have the knowledge to convert his formula ( s ) into programs and at that time PC's were not readily available.

It has taken me years to sort out what works and how to do the math. I did get some help from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, although I would say that they may know how to do the math academically, but they don't know how to apply it to real life trading.

There are so many problems to solve to get to the point where projections are accurate enough to make money, and then there are the psychological problems associated with trading which affect us all.

When I think of all the time and money I have invested in this persuit, I am amazed. I do feel that I have covered a lot of territory. I can tell that my successes are now more frequent than my failures, which has not always been the case. Hopefully I will reach my goal over the next several years. If that S&P500 projection turns out to look like the real future you will know I am there.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:21 - ID#255151)
More on Agamemnon

Check out this Gold mask, at first thought to be the face of Agamemnon. He was sent to Troy to retrieve Helen from Paris ( the Prince, not the city ) . In the process, a lot of burning and sacking took place and Agamemnon left behind a lot of used Trojans. Anyway, here is the Golden mask--

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:21 - ID#270265)
Waiting for that bit of info that I so like to read. I must be good as bought some gold in am and made some money in the pm after being out of touch all day at a meeting. Must have a good gut feeling.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:22 - ID#410215)
..... This Guy Posted This .....

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 04:18

jims ( RJ ) ID#253418:

I have come to question your assertion that you have clients that read your posts on Kitco. I don't think you have any clients that read your posts.

Jims -

More and more each day. If they have Internet access, I send 'em here. They get a kick out of it, and have expressed universal condemnation of those I condemn. But we are not singing that raucous tune on this gentle eve, are we?

Besides, it is JD who has no clients.


(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:25 - ID#434137)
hey mista sheller
what was that deal about klinton you were speakin of. about probly around a month ago concerning some great peril to him?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:27 - ID#284255)
Incorrect url was MS Word 97 format
The great gold comeback again

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:34 - ID#343259)
I need a bit of help sorting out the reserve status of the euro dollar,

which is soon to be decided upon by European bank leaders/finance

ministers. So far it has been intimated by various sources that the

gold backing would be anywhere fromo 5% to 30%, the balance being

Yen and US$. A few questions:

1 ) the reserve will be a fractional reserve, will it not?

2 ) what are the money supply targets for the euro?

3 ) the aggregate member bank gold holdings?

4 ) percentage of 'reserves' that are typical for other currencies,

to estimate ranges of the euro fractional reserve.

It seems that an attempt to quantify some of these numbers would

help clear up the possibilities for golds future price.

There is no currency in the world that has 100% backing, regardless of

currency/commodity mix, correct?

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:35 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Monetary "bubbles" typically require a monetary "pin" to pop them. And we suspect recent rumors of a Bundesbank rate hike, along with yesterday's article about a return to a tightening bias by our Federal Reserve, are actually a planned leak by central banks trying to "talk" the markets down. After all, if some air can be let out by jawboning instead of providing an outright pin ( or rate hike ) , then there's less chance of a crash scenario. But such attempts by Greenspan to talk the market down haven't worked up til now... and we're skeptical about this one.
On the monetary side, Fed policy is still supportive of the bubble. and that most likely means right up until a formal rate hike. But bonds are entering their own storm as yields test their 5-month highs above 6% - there's not an analyst on Wall Street who, several months ago, anticipated yields rising back to this level.
Bottomline, we still can't say that this market's highs are over. A lot of technical damage has been done in bellwethers and bonds, but these tend to be long-leading warning flags. Our best advice is to remain cautious, stay out of the whipsaws, and delay any temptations to sell short until more evidence of a top emerges.
Whats happening?
Our OZ markets are sinking badly.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:44 - ID#284255)
More email chatter
But be careful about conclusions regarding "money flows" into the market. Most of the current such arguments are a result of the "baby boomer" hypothesis or monthly mutual fund numbers. Keep in mind that it is actually psychology that moves the market... someone wanting to "buy" more than the other person is willing to "sell." For every dollar that flows into the market to purchase a stock ( even through mutual funds ) , someone else must be willing to sell that stock. Money flows THROUGH the market, not into or out of it - except in the case of new issues or secondary offerings. Remember, after the Go-Go Fund era, over 80% of the loss in the 1969-70 bear market occurred even as inflows into mutual funds continued.
Please comment on what you think will happen to gold and gold stocks if/when the Fed raises short term interest rates?
Depends on what prompts the Fed to raise short-term rates. If done so to address the excess liquidity and to let some air out of Wall Street's bubble, then it will be viewed as a pre-emptive tightening and gold/gold stocks could be retesting recent lows. However, based on money supply growth, it may already be too late for a perceived "pre-emptive" move.
If the Fed waits to tighten until mandated by a weakening Dollar, soaring trade deficit, or underlying inflation pressures, then gold and gold stocks may continue rising even as the Fed tightens or the market falls... as was the case in several economic cycles of the 1970's. This is one reason why gold stocks have historically had a negative beta - an inverse relationship to the major indexes.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:47 - ID#316193)
Japanese Government Waste -- This Has Been a Big Part of Their Problem

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:51 - ID#57232)
Homegrown Charts
Jeil: I am also very interested in what you have done. I have been trying to do the same thing with Wavelets. As someone mentioned, the problem with Wavelets is that, although they are a major advance over fourier analysis, they require stationary data to get reasonably reliable results. Endpoints are still a problem with Daubuchet wavelets, as the integral is still over the entire data range. I also have noticed another problem, and that is that the 'rules' change if the data is analyzed over long periods of time -- ie there is an optimal time period for model building -- not too long, not too short. My intuitive guess is that even the best model will work for a time, and then not work abruptly when the rules change.

I was wondering how you got around these problems with what sounds to be a fourier decomposition. I gather that you continously recalculate your coefficients with a 5th - order analysis -- digital filtering? Am I right? What is the typical time period that your model predicts fairly reliably?

Lastly, so that I can understand the concept, a 5th order polynomial means to me A + bx + cx**2...+fx**5 ( all coefficients nonzero ) up to the power of 5. I'm not sure how you get to a 200 coefficient fourier series from there -- I'm obviously missing something because there are not enough terms. Thanks in advance.

(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:52 - ID#434137)
Nikkei 15k
here we come...

Crystal Ball
(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:53 - ID#287404)
@ Ladybug
What I have just described is "technical analysis", which takes no account of fundamental news and developments, but only shows the results of interplay between buyers and sellers. Keep in mind that fundamental news announcements, in themselves ( hopefully ) objective statements of facts, are always open to shadings of interpretation by observers and participants with different perspectives, hopes, dreams, agendas, and ( sometimes ) delusions. Take IBM's earnings announcement for example. Objectively, IBM's earnings, market share, profit margins, etc. would have seemed to the unbiased observer to show a downward trend and be quite disappointing; however, a positive spin was put on the news by analysts and commentators, with the result that IBM's stock price soared $7 per share ( I think ) that day. It all boils down to a very complicated and arcane analysis of the behavior of crowds ( shades of Hari Seldon ) . So how will the news of gold reserves or backing or lack thereof for the ECU affect the price of gold? Your guess is good as mine, or RJ's, Disney's, EB's, or Farfel's. Too complicated for me. ;- ) Good luck!!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 28 1998 23:59 - ID#347447)
clone, G-Nutz
clone: don't let it bug you ( ;- )

G: I saw a disturbing set of possibilities regarding Clinton's horoscope and the horoscope of Chile, just around the time of his visit. Fortunately, nothing happened, but it looked like something potentially threatening. Very often nasty things forseen don't come to pass. And just as well. But potential dangers have to be called as they are seen - that's the job of the astrologer. What actually happens is, of course, up to a higher authority.