Jeil: I gather you use the 5th degree polynomial to get a baseline approimate curve, and then you use fourier analysis to come up with the deviations from this baseline curve, and extend the resolution of the model. Ingenious! The only part I do not follow is how you iteratively extend the 5th degree polynomial into the future. Hope you don't mind the questions.

how does a North Shore L.I. summer white house sound? Or maybe Flagler Beach?

Is there a gold short squeeze IN THE WORKS? Or is it simply some pathetic fantasy of some weirdo sitting atop a hill in Southern California? Is it merely the deluded rant of a pro-gold propagandist?

Hmmmmmm....questions worth pondering. Please re-read A.Goose's keenly observant posts today, then reflect once again upon macro-events now unfolding. The answer is contained therein.

The good news in the gold market today came from Mr.Buchan of Kinross, who declared Kinross' intention of issuing a very hefty piece of equity "later in the year."

It is important to reflect upon the import of today's Kinross announcement. Most telling, it indicates a total absence of desperation by a senior producer. There is no indication of urgency to catch the current gold price before it should collapse. The statements indicate
gold producer confidence that the POG will be higher...the Kinross stock price will be higher...and equity may be priced in a higher range come the second half of '98 Especially noteworthy is the fact that Mr. Buchan happens to be one of the industry's greatest skeptics where gold is concerned.

The only other recent notable announcement of immediate equity issuance came from junior, Bema Gold. Various Kitco posters used this announcement to suggest that the gold price had topped; ergo, Bema was racing to issue equity before its share price might collapse. However, the same posters failed to note that Bema sits atop large So. American reserves and effectively little to no production. The company has decided it wants to develop those reserves itself, hence the imperative and immediate need for capital.

In any case, the Kinross statements, given its recent successful, profitable history ( and holding one of the largest cash positions of any Canadian producer ) , can be construed as de facto insider revelations as to where gold is headed by year end. Up, up, and Away! Moreover, announcements of further Australian gold property purchases by Kinross indicate a confidence that simply has not been seen in the gold market in some time.

The gold market saw relatively moderate levels of activity with slight, nominal downward price movement. XAU stocks traded upward on modest volumes as well and, given the absence of fundamental media scare-scams ( such as yesterday's Great Swiss Whopper ) , reconfirmed their negative betas against falling DOW stocks and a dropping bond market. Again, this reveals a notable market trend shift as XAU stocks now are sought as safety havens against declining general industrial equities and bonds.

Precious Metals Relativity Index...nothing new to say here.

Kitco Barometer...increasingly matter-of-fact, non-emotional posts by most goldbugs. There is a strong sense of expectation, no euphoria, and many more posts reaffirming convictions & providing new data regarding gold's value. This is a particularly positive trend as it indicates goldbugs are becoming increasingly proactive...much less reactive. They are launching a facts assault upon gold antagonists, leaving said antagonists to react ( often quite emotionally ) in the absence of any original compelling, proactive adversarial thoughts. This switch from reaction to proaction on the part of goldbugs is a major psychological shift and provides further tangible evidence of an incipient gold bull. I have always maintained that such proaction is imperative to providing the foundation of a perceptual change in the value of gold.

I maintain my EXTREMELY BULLISH position on gold. If it were a 9 on a 10 scale, I would UPGRADE to a 9.2 in fact.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.futuresmag.com/library/april98/markets.html

Farfel-my ability to follow the posts here are limited. One thing I relly want to see is the posts of ANOTHER-his story i think is real.
Could you post a partial list of say the last months of his posts as I can't access something so large sith this old "puter"
thanks

As today's high was 22 2/8, the narrow gap between 22 7/8 and 22 15/16 is still open. If ( e.g. ) tomorrow the price gets to 22 15/16, then the gap will have been closed or "bridged." In technical analysis, prices will frequently retrace to close a gap, and then resume moving away from the area of the gap, renewing the new ( reversal ) trend. Either way, it is a good bet that gold ( and XAU ) will continue south for some time to come. Gold's 200 day moving average is proving a formidable barrier. All indicators ( stochastics, MACD, volume, open interest, etc. ) indicate that gold's renewal of the downtrend is intermediate ( weeks to months ) in nature. Don't be surprised to see gold revisit 296, if not retest this year's lows or even set modest new lows. I continue to anticipate $5/oz silver this year. Anyone expecting Palladium's price to exceed that of Platinum is dreaming. Pa is extremely overextended, and should settle back to the $200 range in short order.

JTF ( I see the light a bit better ) ID#57232:

You don't!!! Using polynomials generated with empirical ( historical ) data to generate data beyond the empirical range ( in this case into the future ) is in math known as extrapolation and it is an extremely RISKY business. In the general case with sufficiently high order of the polynomials, you can always find a polynomial that will fit any required result.

Therefore, it would be just as easy to find a polynomial that will show that S&P will increase tenfold in the next month as it was to find one that shows that the market will crash.

In short: DO NOT BET YOUR MONEY ON THIS ONE!!!!

Technical trading is about RISK MANAGEMENT and not about taking chances on far-fetched extrapolations.

Neither one will suck.

Tom -

No offense taken by your post of last eve. It seemed in spirit of the mood, and I, of all present, had little right to take umbrage last night.

Regarding a question you posed a few days ago. I can trade commodities ( Bullion, Coins ) on an ask to ask basis only for my clients. I actually discourage buying back of a commodity that was not purchased through my firm, unless the proceeds from that sale, or some portion thereof, are then spent in another metal.

I am not a redemption center, as the cost of processing and receiving a buyback order, can actually loose my company money. We offer very fair bid prices, paying a couple dollars over spot for VPs, Eagles, and Maple Leafs.

The ask to ask policy if for one who would maybe like to trade platinum for profits, and then take those profits in gold rather than cash. This may be done with zero additional spreads or commissions, only the difference in the ask prices of the two commodities is paid or credited.

I can do nothing for you regarding your futures contracts, unless you take delivery of the metal and then follow the course above.

Sorry about the delay in my response, but the fever was high and I was onto the scent, and the Muse beckoned forth.

OK

Look through today, sharefin posted what you are looking for.

Petronius: Your point is well taken. I think the only way this might work is to calculate coefficients repetitively over a narrow time range, and see if there is cyclical behavior in the coefficients. If there is not, you are in no man's land. And -- my conceptual problem is that the rules can change abruptly -- so the coefficients can change abruptly. A key item of course is a persistent hidden longterm cyclical pattern that drops out with just the right choice of analysis -- the cyclists dream.

I wish I understood more about Wavepacket analysis ( fancy version of wavelet analysis ) , as I think this may be simpler. So far have not found anything practical. Wavelet analysis for me does drop out a reasonable approximation of the Fibonacci series, but the best I have got out of this so far has only been some very high-tech smoothing. Nothing predictive, due to edge effects.

I also wish I had a better understanding of the coherence length of the markets. This may be a useful parameter in determining intervals for calculating coefficents.

Classified Ad in the Executive Focus section of this weeks Economist--no joke!

GLOBAL CUSTODIAN
The International Finance Corporation ( IFC ) is an international organization established to provide economic growth in its developing member countries by promoting private sector development. IFC is a member of the WORLD BANK GROUP, which also includes the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ( World Bank ) , the International Development Association and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, but is a legally and financially independent entity, with its own Articles of Agreement, shareholders, financial structure, management and staff. The Articles of Agreement specify that IFCs assets, property and income are immune from all taxation imposed by a member country. As of December 31, 1997, 173 member countries hold IFCs capital.


IFC has a liquid asset portfolio of $8.5 billion ( US ) equivalent as of January 31, 1998, approximately 98% of which is dominated in or hedged back to US dollars. For management and reporting purposes, these assets are separated into three distinct portfolios. IFC is reexamining its current custodial arrangements for the three portfolios and to this end is considering consolidating them to one Global Custodian. Portfolio assets include, but are not limited to: a ) Foreign government bonds, corporates, exchange traded and OTC derivatives; and b ) US government bonds, agency MBS, private label MBS corporates, ABS, exchange traded and OTC derivatives.
http://www.ifc.org/solicitation

RJ: Glad you are still posting. You must have had a real sendoff in the last few days -- a trade that worked unusually well? Anyway, I'm curious if you have any comments about the EURO/gold situation. Any scuttlebut from the floor traders? My only insight on this is that Germany is critical to the Euro launching, and that the new Germain prime minister candidate who seems anti-Euro will somehow be neutralized. Maybe he will be 'convinced' with an offer he can't refuse. Too much is riding on Europe's embracing the Euro. I wonder -- could Germany get to keep their gold, but 'sell' it to the European CB at the same time? Ingenious idea if they can get the new Euro CB to be on German soil. The Japanese have a big incentive to keep the US dollar strong, but the Euro launch requires a strong Euro, and ( I think ) weaker dollar.

Problems

The provisions of the Treaty raise a number of issues. First, it is probable that: not all twelve of the currencies comprising the ECU
basket will initially participate fully in Stage III ( for example,
the, Sterling ) ; and some currencies not in the ECU basket will participate fully in Stage III ( for example, the Finnish Markka and
the Austrian Schilling ) .

This is not in itself a matter of great significance; but could become so if the value of the ECU became volatile in the run-up to 1999 as a
result of volatility in the exchange-rates of "derogated" currencies within the ECU.

The most serious issue, indeed, is the potential for movements in the currency markets between the decision on EMU Stage III
participation in early 1998 and the actual start of Stage III on 1st. January 1999. There are a number of risks:

Knowledge nine to ten months in advance that a particular currency can be exchanged for Euros at a fixed rate after January 1999 - though of course this knowledge would be common to all economic operators - could still give scope for various speculations.

A Member State, assured of EMU membership, may be tempted to allow - or even to engineer - a fall in the value of its currency before January 1999 in order to gain competitive advantage.

A Member State which has qualified for Stage III on the basis of the 1997 statistics ( for inflation, long-term interest rates,
budget deficit and public debt ) might show a significant deterioration in one or more of these criteria during the course of 1998.

The volatility of exchange rates in general, or of one or more currencies, might be greatly increased by some unforeseen
shock. It is worth noting, for example, that both France and Germany are due to have elections in 1998.

Any abnormal movements in exchange rates following the decision on
Stage III participation in early 1998 could have important
consequences. The "freezing" of the ECU's value at the start of Stage III will determine both the value of the Euro in terms of the
participating currencies and the cross-rates between them.

Temporary movements in rates as a result of unusual shocks or speculation could give rise to:distortions of competition following the adoption of the Euro, as some countries benefit from a "frozen competitive
devaluation";at the same time, for the citizens of those countries, a fall in purchasing power ( possibly only temporary ) and in the value
of savings ( permanent ) ; in the worst-case scenario, speculation in world markets against one or more national components of the Euro during the
"irrevocably fixed exchange rate" phase of EMU between 1999 and 2002.

It was precisely in order to prevent such a misalignment of rates that the convergence criterion of two years' ERM membership was included in the Maastricht Treaty.

Were the margins of fluctuation still 2.25% either side of the central rate, the possibility of serious misalignment would be small
( though the opportunities for speculation would be greater ) . The current 15% margins, however, create the theoretical possibility of a 30% "frozen" misalignment in a particular cross-rate."

COMMENTS: The above are, or course, only the most visible currency
problems. There are many, many more problems, not the least of which is monetary union sans political union. But no matter, EURO HAS to happen,
and so it will.

JTF -

You know my passion for physics; quantum theory in particular, but I must labor to understand these concepts without the math. God granted me lighting fast spread, percentage, and profit ratio computational skills, but was sparing in His graces of the Higher Mathematics. Seems he gave me a sharp tongue and rather peculiar insight into language instead.

Question to a Physicist:

Can one truly understand thermodynamics, relativity, or quantum theory without understanding the equations? Is it enough to understand the ramifications of the equations? You have read my take on a small part of that world, albeit a humorous one. You once posted that you reread the my treatise and discovered I had some awareness of Bell's inequality, broken symmetry, and virtual particle pairs.

Does the math show the truth clearer? This is not an idle question. I study physics on a continuing basis. Will my efforts prove fruitful with this limitation?

OK?

From Michael Belkin: The forecast from my proprietary statistical trading model is for a further rally in the US equity market. This seemingly bullish forecast cemes from an analyst who is only too aware of the hideous overvaluation and overt overspeculation that already exists. The forecast from this corner is therefore: It is going to get crazier before it's over. But this forecast has different implications for different investors. For portfolio managers in the industry, the advise is to play the game for another month or so, and look to consumer-oriented groups such as retailers, restaurants and medical products. Stay on the plane for now but be prepared to jump and pull the ripcord. For short-sellers. The trend in the US market is still higher for the moment. And so short sellers are likely to be hurt by a market that lifts most boats even while a few Titanics sink. Great gains from a crash for short-sellers are still several ice-bergs over the horizon. For pure investment there exists a window of opportunity for a high-risk rally for another month or so. Market currently exhibits a split personality. A two-tier economy exists. While consumer confidence and spending remain robust, many industrial companies face margin contraction due to overcapacity, which is causing a deflationary drop in pricing power. So consumer spending related stocks could thrive while industrials get throttled. For most investors there are three relevant time horizons. Short-term ( series of days ) , intermediate-term ( series of weeks ) , long-term ( series of months ) The late bullish forcast here is based on the intermediate-term analysis,. But the long-term picture is one smidgeon away from becoming a huge sell signal. This implies that the next intermediate-term sell signal ( triggered from the next substantial decline ) will send the long-term picture south, which finally means curtains for the bull market. Thats, the theoretical model behind anyone who thinks he can ride this final rally up to the US markets long-term peak and then sell everything and sidestep the crash to come.

The last time I told to buy palladium we were sitting at 276.00.
Many of us are are awed at the prices for palladium. $365.00
wow! I just finished conversing this afternoon with a Dr in
Alaska that shed some light on the present Palladium demand.

Cold fusion is alive and well and in it's 7th year of intense'
research. The Russian universities have embraced this matter and
have succeeded. Cold Fusion requires palladium,nickle and water.
The water can be seawater,river water,snow water city water.
Cold Fusion does not need big industry like fission or very
high tech machinery. This is the power of the 21 st century.
Those that horde palladium know this full well. Autocats and
dental uses did not drive palladium to this price level. Fear
not palladium can and will exceed 800.00 per ounce within the
next two years.Lease rates have soared to over 100% so user
are now buying and holding. Sound familar ie Silver. Buy and
hold is the strategy for great profits!

The world has been "dollarized" but being a Global currency is very
different from being The Reserve Currency.

You are The Reserve Currency when-- the Chinese are building a dam;
the engineering work is being done by the French; the Koreans are
supplying the steel; the folks from OZ are supplying the beer;
and, with a ten year payment schedule EVERYBODY is VERY happy to
receive their payment checks in The Reserve Currency. No need to
hedge, no need for derivatives, no worry about anything regarding
the settlement currency. The contractors worry about fulfilling
their contractual obligations. Period. That is a Reserve Currency,
and once upon a time, that WAS the United States dollar. No longer.

Goodnight.

It5 looked like it was a tough day in the gold pits today alot of fearce fighting between the bulls and bears. Up and down... all very exciting BUT in the end NOT ONE ounce of gold changed status at comex.

They are using paper trades to set prices and it will end when they have no stocks to cover their deliveries. When might that be? It could be soon if folks keep taking delivery. They have played the same game with palladium and now they cringe when a short has to meet the delivery. It will come to pass with gold also.

Goodnight ( dream the golden dreams )

FWN: 143002 GMT


COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today



New York-April 28-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 35,000
Silver 23,000
H.G. Copper 16,000


New York-April 28-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,204 0 0 0 0 477,406
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
169,237 0 0 0 0 167,035
COMBINED TOTAL
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

-- SILVER
-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
-1,869,103 965,133 31,619,204
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
1,822,657 -965,133 57,547,485
COMBINED TOTAL
-46,446 0 89,166,689

One of the problems in analyzing a market time series is that the ruler used to measure is not constant. The ruler for most market is money and since the money supply is expanding the value of it is declining. If you look at the price of a stock in 1958 dollars and later look at the price in 1998 dollars you are not comparing the same thing.

In order to take out the effect of a changing ruler I experimented with different techniques. Some people use logs of their data since the diminuation in the value of the dollar is an exponential function, but I never had good luck with this method. I tried different exponents with the same bad results.

Originally, when I started to use polynomials, was simply to find a curve that reasonably fit the data so that I could take the relationship of the market data to the same time period trend value and eliminate the inflation effect. If in 1958 a stock was $2 and the trend value was $1.50 then I substituted +33.33% for the value on that date simply to get the data series running above and below a horizontal line. I was not trying to use the polynomial to predict the future although clearly trends do not abruptly change so there is some near term predictive value in solving a ploynomial equation. Once you have the variables you just plug them into the equation and solve for the desired number of x axis values.

If you look at that percentage chart of the S&P500 you can see that all I have done is transform my data so that it is in good to do statistical tests for cycles. You can then use a fourier type method to give you spectral peaks to examine for possible cycles.

The real statistical test for cycles is a Bartels test. For simplicity sake lets say your fourier analysis gives you a peak at 30 periods. You set up a table with 30 rows and as many columns as can be filled by the data. If you really have a 30 period cycle then in each column the same row across chould contain the highest value in that colunm or at least it should fall close to that row. The Bartels test gives you the probability that a 30 period oscillation is random. One of the major problems is contructing a table where you have fractional periods, say a 30.7744 period. You have to interpolate the row which can get fairly nasty in the second and subsequent colums.

I have tried all sorts of digital filters. Most just mess up the data and distort the results. The only filtering technique I use is to subtract identified cycles from the data so that I can see those hidden behing the more easily identified ones. It is a simple matter to add or subtract sine waves and when you find a cycle you have identified its period, phase and amplitude so you have the data for subtracting it.

Once I have identified the cycles that I am satisfied are ligit, I extend them into the future individually. I also extent the trend line into the future and then add them all together for the projection.

To specifically answer you question about projecting the polynomial into the future, when you originally solve the equation you come up with the variables. The basic form of the equation is y = a + bx + cx^2 ...fx^5.

All not so easily said and even more not so easily done.

Steven ( user787748@aol.com )

Yes, I agree. If gold reseves are high it is bullish. I believe I made that point in my post.

Just thoguht I needed to make the gold 'backing' point clear.

You missed my point. Schroeder and the SPD are not going to run on an anti-Euroe ticket. They voted for the Euro in the German Parliamant. They are committed just like Kohl.

Was thinking about signing up for a position in your summer White House. How about putting me in charge of the Ministry Of New Interns Chaperone Agency. Could you make me the head of M.O.N.I.C.A.?

I think what I am doing is much simpler than you interpret it to be. I really don't understand what you are asking. I am very pragmatic and I really don't care if I understand something as long as I can use it. For example, when I wanted to set up a program to solve a higher order polynomial I had no idea how to proceed. I had an old Apple IIC at the time ( years ago ) and had a few of those disks you paid $5 for and got about 30 home grown programs on them. One of the programs would solve a quadratic equation so I looked at how the program was set up. I just took the middle section of the program and saw how they were doing the math and I just extended it to handle a higher degree. On the front of the program I simple added a section for automatic input of data from my data files and on the end of the program I set it up to output the result to a data file. I then made up variables in a fifth degree equation, created a line and then ran the line data into my plagerized program to see if it pumped out the correct variables. I pragmatically got where I wanted to be and I never had a math course higer than what accounting majors got back in the 60's.

I understand that essentially the equation uses a least squares type approach to come up with a line and for my purposes that is enough. I can see that the line I am generating is reasonably going thru the data and if I have a reasonable trend line then I can detrend the data which is what I wanted to do in the first place.

RJ: I should be asleep right now -- must get up in 5 hours.

But -- I could resist one last look at Kitco!

My answer to you is that mathematics is a tool, not the answer to physics in itself. Did you know that Einstein lifted the Riemannian geometry stuff for General Relativity from an obscure source -- the engineering design of aircraft aerodyamical surfaces? What a mundane application to be lifted into the sublime! Well - to be realistic, General Relativity still does not have as many practical uses as aircraft airfoil design, but it sure is promising!

The trick is to understand the concepts behind the mathematics, not the mathematics, so you are right -- it is still possible for you to think and ponder without knowing all about particle physics or general relativity or quantum mechanics. Some of these physicist ponderers who know all the current math may be barking up the wrong tree and not even know it! The problem you will have, however, is very similar to coming up with a stock market model -- the more you understand about the underlying concepts, the more productive you will be -- you must pull yourself up by your own bootstraps.

There is a corollary to all of this, and that is what really matters is first principles derived from raw experimental data. Most really great physics advances have come from re-analysis of the actual raw data, not from analysis of the math that was applied. Heaviside oversimplified Maxwell's equations from the form that he had written them, based on Faraday's experiments. To this day I suspect Heaviside's approximations have left out some key concepts. But -- to Heaviside's credit, it is his simplifications that lead to the rapid engineering development of electric motors, and electronics that lead to all of our electronic devices today -- such as the net and these computers.

If you have a chance, you should scan the 'Backlight Power, Inc' web site of Dr. Randall Mills. He has a very exciting new approach toward the radiation problem of an electron orbiting a proton. Why doesn't it radiate, and fall into the proton center? Is a minimum wavelength answer really the right one? His answer is that of a 'resonance' between a photon and the electron, so 'that no fourier waves consistent with radiation are present'. He also allows for lower electon energy levels than the generally accepted ones simply by saying that they are non-radiative - thus normally unavable, and I think his math supports this. This is a brilliant concept, as the current classical concept of quantum mechanics has several 'fudges' in it to get what appears to be the 'right' answer. I have not waded through Mills math in detail, but it seems rigorous, fits the experimental data, and eliminates a good number of 'fudges'. Mills continues the implications of his work with a number of amazing claims which are a bit much for my little mind, but suffice it so say that only one of his claims is a fairly reasonable explanation of why hydrogen fusion could work at room temperature -- due to multiple three - body collisions ( causing a kind of catalytic action by elemental hydrogen that has diffused into palladium or similar metal ) . Ie, what Pons and Fleischman claimed they saw, and got hooted out of the US scientific establishment: 'Cold Fusion'. It will really be exciting if Mills has explained even a little piece of this phenomenon as well.

FEATURE-U.S. silence on EMU masks concern
02:01 a.m. Apr 28, 1998 Eastern - By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON, April 28 ( Reuters ) - As Europe inches closer to merging its national currencies, Washington has maintained a stony silence on the entire issue.

U.S. officials are caught between a rock and a hard place. While the Europeans would like their American partners to support their dash to form a monetary union in 1999, the continent's leaders remain sensitive
to anything that might be construed as criticism of their economic policies.

''It's a no-win situation,'' said a source close to the U.S. Treasury. ''But of course silence does not imply hostility or indifference.''

Not surprisingly, public comments from the Treasury or the Federal Reserve on Europe's economic and monetary union ( EMU ) project have been scarce.

The EMU debate in Washington is shrouded in so much secrecy that not even economists who advise U.S. officials on the subject want to see their names in print.

In February, 11 European Union member governments released statistics to prove they would meet the strict economic criteria for adopting the single currency known as the euro.

But at a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven top industrial nations in London just days before the data was released, concern over Japan's weak economy completely overshadowed a brief
discussion of EMU.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's most far-reaching comment on the single currency was noncommittal at best.

''The euro risks taking attention away from the requirement of structural reforms in Europe,'' he said.

His previous comments on the topic have been similarly restrained. ''I do not think it is for us to have views,'' Rubin said once when asked what he thought of Europe's move to EMU.

GREENSPAN ALSO COY

Officials privately say they learned their lesson years ago when they dared to comment publicly on the chances of EMU's success and almost immediately had to field calls from irate European officials asking them to mind their own business.

Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has been just as shy on EMU as he usually is when it comes to the subject of U.S. interest rates.

When lawmakers asked him at a recent hearing what he thought of the project, he answered that EMU was likely to raise living standards in Europe -- if it succeeded.

Behind the scenes, analysts detect a deep-seated angst that Europe's currency union may upset the world of freely floating exchange rates, which in the U.S. view has served the world economy so well, unless the
continent shows a real commitment to reforming its economies.

''Most people in Washington think EMU will happen and that it will survive the first two or three years, but beyond the year 2005, you have very divergent views,'' said David Hale, chief economist at Zurich-Kemper Investments in Chicago.

Proudly pointing to rosy economic conditions at home, U.S. officials have left few doubts what they want to see in Europe -- swift reform of overregulated labour markets and antiquated welfare systems to fight
record unemployment rates.

Whether they have any reason for optimism on that account is another question. Analysts say an upcoming general election in Germany, the most important of the EMU candidates, is likely to delay any reforms in that country until at least next year.

''Europeans do like their welfare state,'' said one.

U.S. SEES EUROPE STILL DIVIDED OVER EMU

European officials visiting Washington find themselves being peppered with questions about the long-term viability of the single currency and the prospects for lasting convergence of the continent's vastly diverging economic structures.

''Those who just a year ago said that EMU will never happen now have changed to say -- well, it will happen, but will it last?'' one visiting European parliamentarian said recently after a round of meetings at the Treasury and the Fed.

A much-publicised call by 155 German economists to delay EMU because the conditions were not yet right for it stirred much interest in Washington and reinforced a belief that the continent remains deeply divided on the issue.

Treasury officials privately admit they are worried about the ability of European countries, each with their own language, history and politics, to see through the kind of changes required for them to speak with one
voice and develop a common approach to monetary and exchange rate policy.

Few would go as far as Martin Feldstein, a widely respected scholar on international economics, who warned the creation of EMU and a strong political union in Europe could lead to armed conflict between the United States and Europe, between Russia and Europe and even within Europe itself.

''If EMU occurs and leads to a ( strong ) political union in Europe, the world will be a very different and not necessarily safer place,'' he wrote in a gloomy analysis for ''Foreign Affairs'' magazine, headlined
''The Euro and War.''

But concerns are clearly there, if on a somewhat smaller scale.

One of the questions officials have been trying to answer -- unsuccessfully so far -- is their future relationship with individual European finance ministries.

''It's pretty clear whom Greenspan will call if there is a problem, namely the head of the European Central Bank,'' said one. ''But it is much less clear whom Rubin will call.''

CAN THE EURO RIVAL THE DOLLAR?

The idea that the euro might pose a serious threat to the dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice has caused considerably less concern in Washington's corridors of power.

The idea that the euro could quickly become a strong international currency which rivals the dollar has been gaining adherents among European policymakers and business leaders of late.

But as long as the U.S. economy remains strong, U.S. analysts and officials agree, there is little the dollar has to fear.

''The dollar's supremacy is ensured for the time being just because of the sheer size of the U.S. financial system,'' said Zurich-Kemper's
Hale.

Treasury Secretary Rubin, speaking at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank was equally optimistic.

''I don't think that it's going to adversely affect the position of the dollar, either as a reserve currency or with respect to the use of the dollar in international finance,'' he said.

''The ultimate question of whether the euro and EMU ... are good for Europe is something the Europeans are best equipped to judge and they've clearly made the judgment that it is.''

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d105:HR03150:@@@D>http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d105:HR03150:@@@D

Jeil: Thank you for the post. I will have to look at it in the morning when I can keep my eyes open.

it's Rangy's day to break loose. Too bad I'm not on that wagon.

Hello, I just noticed a "Cautionary Announcement" re: Durban Deep at
http://www.cahn.co.za/daily_detail.cfm

Do you know what that means? Is is an earnings announcement or a notice by the Gov't they are about to be nationalized? Or perhaps one of those big holes is filling up with water?

Seriously , your knowledge is sought ..

......Thanks again

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/fed_bias_2.html
NEW YORK, April 28 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan agreed at the March meeting of Fed policy-makers to reintroduce a bias toward raising U.S. interest rates, appeasing anti-inflation hawks on the panel and preserving consensus, sources close to the Fed said on Tuesday.
Sources said the tightening bias was a way to acknowledge the concerns of the ``hawks'' without risking ``shooting at inflation ghosts,'' meaning slowing down a healthy economy without good cause to do so.

http://www.desnews.com/edt/ub0vv6oi.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ABA confirms worst fears on 2000 bug
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4315088.htm
THREE-quarters of small and mid-sized businesses have done nothing to avoid the expected effects of the 2000 computer bug, according to an Australian Bankers Association survey released yesterday.

Of the 1000 proprietors polled, about half do not intend to take any action before the crucial date, risking disruption ranging from faulty lifts to billing system mayhem.

ABA executive director Tony Aveling said: "Many small to mid-sized businesses may even be putting their survival at risk because of a complacent approach ..."

The so-called millennium bug has become a major concern for the banks from a credit control perspective.

Having spent billions of dollars preparing their own systems, the banks have now turned to the potential risk resulting from their clients not being prepared.

Some banks already included adequate year 2000 preparation in their lending criteria, Mr Aveling said.

The poor response rate suggests small enterprises will continue to struggle to find debt funding, despite signs of a business lending war.

Overall, the survey found that 25 per cent of businesses had not taken simple measures such as preparing an action plan.

"Particularly inactive has been small business, of whom only about one-fifth have done anything," the ABA says.

"Medium business has been more diligent. Just over half ( 51 per cent ) of them have taken some form of action so far."

While more than 90 per cent of respondents had heard about the millennium bug, 57 per cent knew little or nothing about the effects.

"In contrast, 35 per cent of respondents said they heard so much about the millennium bug that they don't know what to believe," the ABA says.

In all, 76 per cent of businesses rated the problem as not serious, against only 20 per cent who treated the bug as having serious consequences.

Of businesses with a turnover of more than $20 million, 22 per cent believed the problem would be "very serious", compared with only 8 per cent of operations turning over less than $200,000.

Asked why they had not taken any action, 22 per cent said they did not use computers at work. A further 23 per cent said their systems were already compliant, or there was "nothing to fix".

However, most of the businesses surveyed believed the problem would be fairly cheap to fix, with only 18 per cent citing the solutions as costly.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And OZ is supposed to be one of the countries at the forefront of Y2K remedial work.

http://www.bangkokpost.net/280498/280498_News02.html
The Y2K problem is expected to affect various kinds of work performed by state agencies especially those related to infrastructure and social welfare, said Mr Kanchit.

Electricity supply, communications, aviation, health services, banking and even police work will be among those affected.

Other countries have expressed concern about Thailand's slow response because it will affect international business such as banking, he added.

Senator Bennet looks like he's triaging. Good for him.

http://www.internetworld.com/print/current/webdev/19980427-year.html

Yes, it seems that Bennet is starting to get a few heads worked up about the issues.
It's amazing watching the awareness growing at the moment.
That article from Thailand and the one from ABA says it all though.
Here you have one country who is at the front of the list of the countries working on the issue and they find the majority of businesses way behind the 8-ball and then you have Thailand who is a lagard saying years of chaos.
I guess the rest of the world is somewhere in between.

Lately OZ has been releasing more articles than any other country on the subject.
http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html
We're supposedly at the forefront yet so far behind.
God help us all.

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?IWK19980427S0084
I'm not sure some days whether to be delightfully elated or abjectly depressed. I've decided "positively focused" is definitely the way to go. Still, that's not an easy road to take.

On the one hand, elation sets in as some very visible and publically credible folks ( e.g., Alan Greenspan ) finally acknowledge the fact that the risks of year 2000 noncompliance are very serious. On the other hand, depression reigns anew as it seems that their admonitions go largely unheeded.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Great article

http://www.year2000.unt.edu/kappelma/prez.htm

What are you blokes "down under' doin' to Jakarta ?!? Ewe' tryin' to sink the whole island chain, or what ?

For SWP1.
Well it could have been that nuclear blast down shaft
no 3, or maybe that tank battalion at the front gates,
or maybe the tribal war raging in shaft no 2, or the
earthquake and resultant tsunami in shaft no 1.
But .. I think its because they will discontinue
preferred stock shareholding .. converting them to
1:1 common plus a normal option ( worth 6 to 8 rand ) .
I already reported this .. I was a preferred stock
buyer if I could get them and paid no more than 2 rands
over the common price .. so I make a mini bonanza.
Oh they're calling for volunteer shareholders to
rally at the front gates to fight back the tanks..
gotta run ... where's that bazooka ?? and my panga for
hand to hand ??
Outsmarted myself yesterday by selling off common
I just bought for 10% quick profit... Maybe I can buy
some back off the tank drivers.

To all Harmony sportsfans
Harmony says they built their refinery for under
6 million rand !! They will sell their allocation in
the Big Rand refinery to others for about the same
amount PLUS the refinery generates about 4 million a
year in extra profit. Now THATS ENTERPRISING.

Their manager says he is considering building another
one in CANADA for Bissett because of the ways small
Canadian companies get screwed for gold refining. He says
they could ship and refine in RSA for much less than in
Canada.

fact that on April 6 the XAU and the SA All Gold Index had crossed their

respective 200 day moving averages, and soon after, the averages themselves had begun to turn up. Yesterday, instead of collapsing back through the 200 day average, the XAU turned up instead.

The All Gold Index is still above its average. As long as they do not cross these averages and remain below it for three days, I am going to expect a series of positive events to unfold in the gold markets. It is interesting that the 200 day average of June Gold is now declining at the rate of .10 per day at 313.7, a mere $4 above yesterday's close.

I do not have the statistics available for the Canadian and Australian Gold share indices, but if someone would post as to whether they too are above their 200 day averages, it would be an interesting

additional verification.

Is this HGMCY Harmony that is building their own refinery. Is that what has popped this stock up so fast. On a percentae basis this is certainly one of the strongest perfromers. Any more upside left?? Any more fundlemental information would be appreciated. On a chart pattern basis only I love this stock at 5n

I'm falling into the bearish camp, beginning to believe all the conspriacy stuff is jsut a myth, that the Euro won't have anmymore than a 10% "backing" and that that will be played down to somebody's benefit other than mine. Silver looks weak, volumn increasing on the downside.

Where is the meat to this bull, anyway.

for SWP1.
In addition to all that other stuff .. there
is a rumour of a DbnDeep aquisition of some
unknown company ... Also a rumour that their
last quarters profits are up in the worst
gold price in rand I have seen. If Kebble
runs true to form, he wont pay in cash but
in stock. Exciting yes ??
for Jins ..
I love Harmony .. but sold half of it .. I hate
myself .. It is a long termer .. Institution
here are big buyers .. The local OBV is
breathtaking. There is little script .. much
resources and brilliant and aggresive management
in form of a guy named Bernard Swanepoel. He
want to generate cash and BUY resources. He
knows what he is doing.

for JIMS

Some fundamentals
Harmony .. 49 mill shares at 5.5$ ..
resources 70 mill oz.

ABX 373 mill shares at 22$ ..
resources 75 mill oz...

harmony upper limit based abx = 22 * 373/49*70/75 =
155 $/share ..

I'd take profits at that level

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian

I'm getting to like this chart. In my last post on this subject I asked you to place your ruler along the rising bottoms ( sounds good-doesn't it? ) . It looks like the blue line doesn't want to go down through the red line. So today it went up instead, as I predicted. If this point of resistance fails- then drop the r.h. side of your ruler to the next set of bottoms. You have to fudge a bit--cause it isn't quite a straight line. If that one doesn't hold, then go to the beach and come back in a month.

EVERYONE is predicting a drop in the gold price!! All the 'xpert' voodoo chartists, all the financial gurus, all the newspapers, even a whole lot of Kitco-ites. When all around you are losing their heads--lose yours too!!--no, think about it. Are you going to make money if you do what everyone else does?? OK--LGB--no DOW-last 17 year lectures please. Where was I?? Oh yeah. If you want to make money you have to hold on to your precious ( and I don't mean metal ) and go against the crowd. Just to brag a little tiny bit--the most money I have made in the past year was on the shares I bought on Oct. 28, 97--a day ahead of you guys--I emptied my bank account on that day. OK -- if that was 'THE BIG ONE', I would have lost my shirt. It wasn't. I took a chance. It turned out well. Go against the crowd. The crowd does not like precious. The bottom is in. Ted sold his ABX. What else do you need to know?? Buy gold. Buy silver. PGMs?? Jeez--I don't know!! How healthy is Boris?? Anyone want some mint one oz palladium coins in native timber display boxes from the Perth mint? Dang boxes are too nice to bury in the back yard. Where was I?? OH yeah--XAU. Gold looks nasty at the moment. XAU shares today said "I don't believe you." Same in Oz. Gold down. Oz gold shares up. Only the big ones up. Littlies did bugger-all. Institutions switching paper profits into gold?? Normandy up sharply, big volume, on gold-down day.

Watch those little blue thingies. See if they cross the red line. Get yourself a plastic see-through ruler.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

Dear Kitcoites,

Apologies for the funny newspaper column format of this post. I'm sure there's a way to get it into justified format, but I haven't been able to figure it out.

Anyhow- I'm starting to think that Japan is the domino that will start the chain reaction going, just as Britain preceeded the US in 1929.

The Japanese now have a definite deflationary trend underway, with the CPI falling at -2% p.a., and it has been negative for several months now.

Finally someone in the mainstream press has pointed out the obvious comparisons between the Japanese inability to do anything about their downward spiral and the inability of the Americans to do anything about theirs in the 1930's.

This is serious stuff. The thunderclouds are looming on the horizon, and when the storm hits the dazed masses will be looking around wondering what hit them and wondering who to "blame." If they'd pay attention to the things that really affect their lives instead of ER & Seinfeld they'd not be caught in the thresher.

Of course, the Clinton administration knows who they'll blame, and this must explain the frantic series of summits and finance ministers' meetings they've been organizing. What interests me is that they are trying to avoid publicity for these meetings- the opposite of what they usually do when they want to get credit for economic events.

- Steve

Japanese Economic Crisis

New Deal
Mythology

by George Melloan

Japan has just embarked
on yet another "stimulus"
program, its seventh in the
eight years since its
financial bubble began to
deflate. A slumping
economy makes it obvious
that the previous six have
failed in their purpose. The
latest, valued at some
$127 billion, is not much
different from those that
have gone before, with the
exception that it contains a
temporary, and thus
probably ineffectual, tax
cut. Its advent has done
little to relieve Japan's
gloom.

Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin has called
the package "positive,"
while at the same time
saying vaguely that "more
is needed," thus keeping
his options open. Secretary
of State Madeleine
Albright probably will try
to be as nice about the
economic program as
possible when she arrives
in Tokyo today. The two
can hardly criticize Japan's
belief in public spending as
a stimulus when their own
president came into office
with a similar nostrum in
mind, vowing to allot large
amounts of public money
on "infrastructure." He
would have done it too, had
not Congress tightened his
leash.

Japanese Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto and
Bill Clinton are soul
brothers in their certainty
that government spending
is a rejuvenating elixir.
This belief derives, in part,
from a mythology about
the American experience
of the 1930s--largely
concocted by New Deal
historians--which holds
that public spending ended
the Great Depression.

It did not. Actually, it was
one of Mr. Hashimoto's
predecessors, Hideki Tojo,
who achieved that result
by attacking Pearl Harbor
and forcing the U.S. into a
massive war effort. Up
until then, Franklin Delano
Roosevelt's resuscitation
efforts had had only
limited success. After
some recovery in the
mid-1930s, the economy
had slumped again in 1938.
As late as 1939 there still
were nine million
Americans out of work.
That was less appalling
than the 13 million of 1933,
but it still was 17.2% of
the work force.

The most reliable accounts
say that FDR was no
Keynesian; he saw
massive public works
spending as relief for the
jobless, not primarily as an
economic stimulus.
Joblessness, of course, is
not Japan's problem--at
least not yet. FDR also
was far more concerned
about the economic risks
of deficit spending and
rising public debt than Mr.
Hashimoto appears to be.

The distinctions are
important because of
certain similarities
between Japan's current
funk and America's
economic collapse of the
1930s. Although both had
complex origins, each
began with stock market
crashes that had
destructive effects on the
banking sector. U.S. banks
had loaned heavily for
stock and real estate
speculation and were
devastated when some $30
billion in paper values
evaporated in a matter of
weeks in 1929. ( A billion
dollars was lot of money
then. ) In early 1932,
Herbert Hoover tried to
bail out the banks with his
Reconstruction Finance
Corp. ( RFC ) but it proved
inadequate to the task. By
the time FDR took office,
a pronounced deflation had
set in, the banking system
was tottering, and
depositors were
demanding their money.
FDR dictated a "bank
holiday," closing banks
until Congress could enact
measures to reassure
depositors. With the
lifeblood of business and
industry shut off, the
economy plunged into deep
Depression.

Japan has experienced a
similar, though less
destructive, sequence: the
central bank-financed
speculative bubble in stock
and real estate of the late
1980s; the collapse of
1990; the resulting loss of
liquidity, leading to
deflation; the efforts of the
Ministry of Finance
( Tokyo's equivalent of the
RFC ) to keep the banks
afloat--and now stagnation.
Some banks probably are
insolvent. Others are
reluctant to lend because
added lending pushes their
risk-based capital-to-loan
ratios below the 8%
"Basel standard" for
international banks. They
are relatively
unresponsive to monetary
stimulus by the central
bank. Hence, a credit
crunch.

FDR, faced with a far
worse situation, turned on
the federal spending
spigots, just as Mr.
Hashimoto has. In the
famous first 100 days of
his administration, he and
a like-minded Congress
spewed out alphabet
agencies and financed
them generously from tax
revenues and federal
borrowing. The Public
Works Administration
took on the kinds of tasks
that Japan's Construction
Ministry is undertaking
today, building roads,
bridges and public
buildings. The main
difference is that the U.S.
needed roads, bridges and
public buildings at the
time, so the projects,
although often inefficiently
executed, filled some real
needs. It's highly doubtful
that Japan needs further
spending on new roads and
bridges that parallel
little-used existing ones.
Japan is costing itself
growth and jobs on balance
by robbing money from
potentially productive uses
to spend it on make-work
projects.

FDR, however, was never
very successful in
energizing the American
private sector, which is
where all the potential for
economic muscle existed,
as the war effort and later
economic development
would prove. According to
John Chamberlain's
excellent "The
Enterprising Americans,"
first published in 1961,
domestic investment fell to
$900 million in 1932 from
$16 billion in 1929 on
Hoover's watch, then
under FDR climbed to
$11.7 billion in 1937, but
collapsed again to $6.7
billion in 1938.

One reason was that
FDR's experimentation in
state economic
management sapped
business confidence. His
early National Recovery
Administration, with its
price fixing and
cartelization, bordered on
fascism, which was
admired by some New
Dealers of the time.
Fortunately, the Supreme
Court declared its core
provisions
unconstitutional. Some
other innovations of the
New Deal, such as Social
Security and the Securities
and Exchange
Commission, were more
praiseworthy and have
lasted. But they were no
engine for economic
growth.

Clearly, the New Deal is
no useful model for Japan.
Roosevelt was a bold
experimenter, and that was
both his strength and
weakness. His programs
had political power and
indeed revolutionized
American politics. That's
why they have appeal for
politicians seeking to
expand or consolidate their
influence. But the revival
of the U.S. consumer
economy didn't hit its
stride until the 1950s,
when most of the New
Deal's central economic
management schemes had
been scrapped. Mr.
Hashimoto should look to
the return of the U.S.
market economy in the
1950s if he wants a model
for reviving Japan's
economic growth.

The Wall Street Journal,
April 28, 1998

Bart:your viewing options calender is showing 31 days for April.

Is the rumour true that you may be moving to Toronto. If so welcome. We may not be on a par with Johannesburg or Vancouver when it comes to gold mining activity, but we're not bush-league either. Lots of mining co.'s have their head offices here, and many of the senior ones are listed on the TSE. A fun place for a goldbug to be : )

- Steve

If you plot the XAU at 5 minutes interval... mmhhh! Yesterday was goood.
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=60&time=5m&chart=candle&chart1=bb&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&rsr=y&iqc=y&symbol=%24XAU.X

Thank you very much for the informative Y2K articles from
Dr. Kappleman. May I suggest to you and others to research
the writings of Dr. Gary North ( Remnant Review and Firestorm
Chats newsletters ) who has done extensive research on the Y2K
situation and even sells a Y2K SURVIVAL KIT ( which I purchased and
think is good ) . Check it out at:

http://www.garynorth.com/

Any suggestions on how to get our money out of the banks before
2000 and what form of asset to keep it in? A mix of the precious
metals coins/bars maybe? Firearms?

Thanks again.

Seems after a day or two of them gold jumps.YEE-HAA! Go Gold!

Golddkm ( 5:20 ) The Aussie Gold index is nearly 200 points ( more than 10% ) above its 200 day average. BTW, it was up 22 points ( about 1.6% ) today in a market that fell by 32 points or 1.2%.

I have not read you previous posts. I take it you believe this current slump in metals is a BUY signal for precious metals, and that the general trend is UP for them???

That last post was for Nick, sorry
I have not read you previous posts. I take it you believe this current slump in metals is a BUY signal for precious metals, and that the general trend is UP for them???

G'day mate. Question for you. I also believe the bottom is in. However, I like to prepare for the possibility that I am not perfect. At what price and on what chart ( eg US$ weekly gold ) would you be willing to admit that we were wrong?? Cheers, N.

keep MOI out of this~~~~

G'day Prudent. I am not. Prudent--that is. I like to lay it all on the line. I believe that gold has finished a 17-year bear market. I will change my mind if it bounces off 340 and goes to new lows. I trade and use stop losses. If I am wrong--the market takes me out. I am liberal with the s.l.'s because gold shares are so volatile. I lose 25% on some gambles ( not investments ) . The ones that double or do even better make up for the losers. If you are wrong--get out!! Let the winners run. Do the opposite of the crowd. Simple. Get a plastic see-through ruler and follow simple trend lines on the charts. Buy when they touch the bottom line and sell when they touch the top. Follow DJ's channels. Get to know a few shares well. After a while you will 'know' what they are gonna do next. Not quite that simple--but a good start. Cheers, N.

im just am amatuer. i cannot speak for the short term indexes. all i can say with certainty is what i have learned from an associate who is a metalurgist, part of whose job is to teach PM producing nations how to increase their output at lower cost through the recovery of higher volumes from lower grade ore. last december he informed me of two very interesting pieces of info.
#1. the downturn in gold prices of last year was the result of increased production of gold by mainland China. China is one of his customers, and he showed them how to increase production by 20%.
#2. most of the micro-electronics manufacturers ( e.g. computer chips ) are preparing to gold micro-plate thier microchips, but first gold must be at a price which permits them to do so while remaining competitive at todays prices. once the procedure is common place, the value of gold will rise and remain steady at around $1000 to $1200 per oz. He speculated that this would occur around year 2000.

Getting late for mois. Sure miss Donald. How about taking the rudder in his absence! You can kayak us through this maze.

Silver should find it's low today or tomorrow before a rally into mid - late May. SnP should also see it's low this week before a rally into mid May. Buy June SnP under 1077, use a big stop.

Good Morning - anyone in ryo or rangy?

A wise TA procedure. A man after me own heart. I am never far from a chart and a see-thru straight edge. In a pinch, a business card, a piece of paper, a length of 2x4 will do fine!

What's up?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/dlr_euro_c_1.html

I am much heartened by your call for silver lows materializing soon. My astrological observations indicate mid-May as a powerful window for silver. It would be nice if a bottom exposed itself now, so that the likelihood of the coming mid May action would be positive for price, perhaps the heart of a rally. Otherwise, the indication would be for a bottom or plunge in mid May. Watch SSC - this is my technical control on the situation, but it is a surrogate for the entire silver market here. Will watch the charts with mounting intensity.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/oil_gulf_e_1.html

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER19.html

According to the charts http://webhome.idirect.com/~ervenj/ed2.jpg
still looks like the mother of all bottom fishes loading up.

Hi billd - just wondering what anyone thought on them?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/markets_pr_1.html

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER20.html

I LOVE rangy and have had concern for ryo - BUT they have a very high correlation in price movements

http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Button=1M&TSym=RYO,T.RYO,RANGY

EXPLOAD TO THE UPSIDE..... ( but I am generally wrong!! :: ) ) )

``As long as people have confidence in our basic policy thrust and they have confidence in the economy, then I think the dollar will perform its functions in ways that are advantageous to us and I think we can co-exist with another
growing reserve currency very well,'' Rubin told the Foreign Policy Association in response to a question.

People are asking the question, will the US$ survive the challenge of a stronger currency - the Euro?

HighRise

I fully agree BillD but rangy has severely lagged drooy and hgmcy and ryo has severely lagged abx and hm etc - I know ryo's problems but what was the ( supposed ) problem with rangy - it's correlation with ryo in terms of price movements is a very interesting dillema ? n'est pas?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/china_riot_1.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sent to me from Donald who is able to lurk but not post.

When he goes to post he receives a message
saying "invalid name" and listing special characters that he shouldn't use.

Anybody with any ideas as to why he can't post?

Has anyone checked the prices for gold and platinum.
Quote Com shows Pl getting hit pretty hard, but on DBC
the prices are not the same. Gold also is quoted differently
on the 2 sites. Anyone?

Who are "people"? The oil producers? Forex traders? What policy? Running $11 Billion a month trade deficits? Seems to me the dollar is a lot more fragile than generally assumed. The euro will test this assumption. ( IMHO )

html special characters in your posts....hope that helps...WE NEED DONALD

OK forget the question- Prices are verified at the above, and platinum is
down as per
Quote Com's chart.

Nick@C- Oh, I do agree with your approach. Hope I don't get stopped out on my contracts. If I do, I do.

Oris- on motivation, I have thought the same may be the case. What a hoot if so!

RJ-my query was not intended as a request for your company to do the exchange. I want to take delivery on a Comex K and exchange for coins. My broker just didn't know about the concept. I'll convey my request to him again. Maybe, I can get this done-at least I'll try. Thanks for the info.

Tis time for spot gold to move up to $310 by the weekend.

Tom

Carl's PM URL a good read - all should ck it out.
Japan has been buying Gold.
_____________________________________
Dealers said gold and the rest of the precious metals complex was quiet due to the Japanese holidays.

``It is very dull with the absence of the Japanese,'' one dealer said.

He said gold moved lower early on Wednesday with players in Hong Kong selling about 80,000 ounces of gold in a bid to push the market down.

But gold was well-supported above the $306.00 level and the price dropped only by 40 to 50 cents after the sales, which would not have been noticed in a day of normal trading where the Japanese were active, the dealer said.

``They ( Hong Kong ) were either trying to push it lower or they could have been trying to find out what the strength of the market is,'' the dealer said.
_____________________________________

HighRise

I assume all people - the World.

I find it very interesting that the question even got ask, we ask the question here on Kitco all of the time; but for someone to bring it up out side a forum such as this is, IMHO, important to note.

HighRise

the other day. As I see other articles like that, will forward them on.

A Technical Analyst named Bill Omaha had a theory that called many major tops in the Dow. It also called some intermediate corrections along the way, so take it as noteworthy only. It doesn't work all the time.

The following must occur:
1 The NY new lows must exceed new highs within 5 trading days of a new high in the Dow. ( April 28 )

2 Decliners must exceed advancers by 2000 on one of the days. ( April 27 )
( Bill Omaha used 1000 when there were fewer issues out there )

3 You must have 5 down days in a row. ( April 28 )

Based on the theory, the Dow is in BEAR mode until we get 5 up days in a row in the index.

Something to chew on with your breakfast toast.

Thanks for the retort. You answered most of my questions. Hmmmm the 60's, we must be contemporaries of sorts--maybe you had Fortran 2 and Fortran 4? No accounting for me though--aerospace sciences, then medical/vision sciences. Programming is definitely not my strength, so I was curious as to how you physically went about this task. Apparently, once you curve fit by least squares, you apply a statistical algorithm or some RMS oscillating function to these results--which I take to be piece-wise smooth. In designing surfaces, I often run into problems combining polynomials.

Notwithstanding these things, the results you obtain is highly dependent upon your statistical model or algorithm, so if you actually predict the S&P fall off, your model could become valuable. I suggest you keep that part of your analysis very secret; however, I sure would like to see some gold stock charts projected by you.

Thanks again. Go Gold!

I have some.

Have not heard much from them lately - I guess
I better look around.

HighRise

FWIW, Navapatterns is a TA program that searches a stocks history for patterns that are similar to recent action and projects future price out 30 days. Based on the past 3 days bars, using 30 day increments/w 10 similar patterns and averaging same, Navapatterns predicts the price of SSC to reach 1.4375 to 1.625 within the next 30 days.

Nava has a web site in case you are interested. Use infoseek, type nava, enter and find Nava Patterns, or I will find url and post it shortly.

General
Thanks, checked out most of Gary's site and lots of others.
As for me I'm getting away from the crowds.
Off to a small town - rural area.
Fits in with what the family has dreamt of doing.
A bit more peace and sanity in my life.
And hopefully next to the sea with views.

As to getting your money out of the bank - easy
Just spend it on assets that you reckon will go up in value
Regardless of what happens.
Sort of a win - win situation.

I think generators will be a boom industry for a while.
Be they solar, wind or fuel driven.

http://www.windowofopportunity.com/navap.html

While most of my stuff has been punching sky, Rangy fell in the chute and just laid there. Sold about half to reposition. Might regret it, but had to call a shot.

50000 shares already traded on rangy - They should move today !! in tandem if my graph work is good! ( the bollinger bands on rangy are almost touching!! lol )

If the bondholders approve the Trilon financing, RYO will survive. The bondholders would be better to force into bankruptcy and keep Kemess. If the price of gold recovers, RYO may make a little profit someday. The pie will be cut up into very small pieces.

Problems:

1 Way too many shares.
2. All the Kemess cash flow will go to cover interest on the huge debt that they have run up. Common shareholders won't see any of it.
3. RYO has never hit their production cost projections at any of their mines.

I think that you can find better risk reward with DRFNY, GDFDY or AGOLY. They will rise by 3 to 5 time in a true Gold Bull, and you don't have to worry about bankrupcy or huge debt levels.

Voyeur professor; Your analyis of the impacvt of Euro success or faikure on POG makes a lot of sense to me. I agree with Farfel though that failure of Euro would not necessarily send cascades of money into US if a bear market is underway here.

Tzadeak: Your absence is misssed. Hope you come back soon.

Voyeur professor; Your analyis of the impacvt of Euro success or faikure on POG makes a lot of sense to me. I agree with Farfel though that failure of Euro would not necessarily send cascades of money into US if a bear market is underway here.

Tzadeak: Your absence is misssed. Hope you come back soon.

FWIW with a low today,next will try to
take out 318 in 6 days,failing will test
the 302 12 trading days after.300 is a the critical
number on the chart.Have a nice day.

6.073 %

Your problem posting comes from a gremlin. Saw it on a Bugs Bunny cartoon some years ago. Hope the problem clears up soon!

MoReGoLd:
thank you very much for your post. It has helped me to better understand what's going on with this propaganda event.

Switzerland is receiving now their public spenking for their lack of political correctness during WWII. How could they dare to maintain their neutrality?

Makes me also doubt in gold's political corectness. It's chemically completely neutral. It doesn't get into any compound with any other element. Not even to speak of the blood of the murdered victims, who might have owned it. Nore does it tell the story of the killers. No DNA test will ever tell.

Maybe some of the last Zar's gold ended up in these SWISS banks? He and his wife and five children were killed by non-Russians. That's what history books tell us. But not the gold.

Maybe some little gold pieces of some of the seven to ten million Ukrainian paysants, who were killed in the greatest genocide of our century, the man-made famine, which raged since 1929 and ended 1933, even before the "NAZIS" came to power. This genocide was directed by Stalin's non-Russian brother in law.

Maybe..
maybe..
gold doesnt tell us. It doesn't combine with the victim's blood, nor does it tell us the murderers.

But the SWISS have deservede their spenking. How could they dare to stay neutral!

Alberich the Dwarf

http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971020/news/news15.html

with declines of 10 percent or more.

Jeil: Thanks. Your method of removing non-oscillatory trends with a polynomial least squares fit should be very useful in removing non-stationary components in your time series data. My guess is that your method works best on any cyclical components that have a time period shorter then the timescale of your polynomial fit.

I have a problem with long-term cycle analysis, as it seems that certain cycles fit the market for a time, and then suddenly they don't. A dynamical model of some kind is necessary. Good luck with your analysis, and thank you for sharing it with me.

All: I do not know what to make of the world economic situation, but doubt a US market crash in the near future -- a downturn followed by another rally is more likely, irrespective of the Indonesian situation. Now a Japan implosion -- unlikely for now -- would be a different matter -- or even Hong Kong.

Hong Kong might sell more of their gold if they get in trouble again. Japan is less likely to -- expecially the Japanese people. For those who are doubting Thomases about what Hong Kong etal could do to gold/gold stocks, just look at what happened to them in October 1997. But -- I doubt that 280/oz or less is in the cards.

So -- my money is on another short/intermediate term rally, and the intensity of it will give us a clue of what will happen later, and how soon we will have real trouble. Perhaps not till the fall of 1999. We have yet to have the rate of rise ( first derivative ) seen in the last market blowoff of 1929. Hope everyone has a good day.

sharefin: Here's an idea for Donald. If his Kitco 'log in' file is corrupted on his computer, he should be able to log in from another computer. If it is corrupted at the Kitco end, it should not matter what computer/ISP he tries to login in with with his password. He should try that to see if his problem is specific to one computer only, or to a specific ISP. Please say hello to Donald for me! Thanks.

RYO
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ryo&d=b

Tuesday March 31, 9:27 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Royal Oak Announces 1997 Results of Operations
- Strategic mine closures to improve future mine operating
margins
- Gold production of 66,919 ounces in fourth quarter, and 351,349
ounces for the year
- Cash costs of US$274 per ounce in fourth quarter, and US$330
per ounce for the year
- Cash provided by operating activities of $104.5 million in
fourth quarter, and $67.3 million in 1997
- Realized gold price of US$327 per ounce in fourth quarter, and
US$393 per ounce for the year
- Construction of Kemess Mine over 92 percent complete and
scheduled for start-up in early May of 1998
- Hope Brook Mine placed on care and maintenance
- Colomac operations closed down in December of 1997, on
completion of milling of stockpiled ore, and placed on care and
maintenance

Margaret Witte, said, `.....Notwithstanding these difficulties, we are extremely encouraged by the long-term outlook for the Company as we plan to commence production in May at the low-cost, long-life Kemess gold-copper mine. Kemess represents the anticipated turnaround of Royal Oak, and the cash flow that the mine is expected to generate, particularly when gold and copper prices return to levels of the last three years, should enable the Company to grow with less reliance on the capital markets than in the past....
___________
April 15, 1998

ROYAL OAK MINES INC ( RYO )
Annual Report ( SEC form 10-K )

- MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
In 1997, revenue, including gains from gold derivative transactions, from production of 351,349 ounces of gold was $191.2 million, a decrease of 25% from the prior year, compared to revenue of $255.2 million from production of 389,203 ounces of gold and revenue of $208.3 million from production of 371,151 ounces of gold in 1996 and 1995, respectively.

The Company estimates that in 1997 for each US$10 per ounce change in the realized gold price, the Company's revenue changed by approximately $4.9 million.

In 1997, gains from gold derivative transactions were $33.7 million compared to $51.3 million and $13.3 million in 1996 and 1995, respectively. At December 31, 1997, all of the Company's existing forward contractual arrangements for the delivery of gold had either been fulfilled or closed out, and no new forward contractual arrangements had been entered into.

In 1997, average unit cash operating costs were US$330 per ounce, a 4% decrease from the prior year, compared to US$343 and US$358 per ounce in 1996 and 1995, respectively.

In 1997, the Company recognized a loss on foreign currency contracts of $23.8 million compared to gains of $0.5 million and $5.2 million in 1996 and 1995, respectively.

In 1997, the Company recognized a loss on commodity contracts of $22.5 million relating primarily to gold and copper put options issued by the Company.

The Company believes that if successful this additional financing will resolve the current liquidity problem and allow the Company to meet its cash obligations for at least the remainder of 1998.
http://sec.yahoo.com/e/980415/ryo.html
Not to impressive, but not to many Gold Cos. are these days.

You know it is really scary when you read corp reports and you see where they are investing in all of these side deals for In an effort to minimize the potential adverse effect of fluctuations in the markets I see this again and again - in all industries, Banks, Insurance companies, etc.

By the way, does anyone know if the $70 trillion derivatives, that we heard about last Fall, are still out there unwinding?

HighRise

I second Sharefin's comment.

Let's help get Donald back.

Here is the message he gets when he tries to post:

Invalid Name
Please use standard character set. Characters such as
,,,,... are not allowed.


He is not using any of these characters. When he calls for the comment screen the password field is blank. He fills in the correct password but gets the same result.

If you REALLY know what you are doing with computers can you send Donald your ideas. His email address has been posted countless times on this site. It is: Donald@uconect.net

PS -- Donald has not asked for this assistance. Hope he doesn't mind this post. Cheers, Nick.

Old Gold,

Thank you for your response. The key in our different views rests of course with the ever-troublesome subjunctive: IF. If, as you and Farfel maintain, there IS a U.S. bear market when the EMI gets into trouble, then I would be inclined to agree that liquidity would not automatically flow to the U.S. markets. But, IF the U.S. economy remains strong, and I still believe that it is better positioned to compete than Asia or a weakened Europe, then I believe it will continue to dominate world markets. Where would money go if not to the U.S? Asia the only other potential rival to the dollar has problems that will reach well into the next century. Remember my position rests with the view that monetary union wont solve the unemployment difficulties that Europe faces; it wont necessarily bring down exorbitantly high tax rates that are necessary to support its social welfare psychology, and it will clash with an over-regulated labor system that demands protections and benefits that corporate downsizing and tight monetary policies can not tolerate.

It is truly amazing how they really abuse the priviledge of running a company - yet even though there is nothing I like about the management or the fact that they invested in a mine that is the lowest yielding of any I have ever research ( kemess gets very little gold per ton of HARD ROCK ) and they have to ship the concentrate elsewhere to be poured ) I like the TA of the graph - it looks just like RANGY!! lol

If the Swiss had given up their neutrality in WWII, it would have been a lot harder for us ( Allies ) to run our intelligence operations from their soil. We wanted them neutral then, and used their neutrality to our advantage. I do believe that righting old wrongs is a negligable part of the intention of those on the offensive now. More likely 1 ) a desire to blast through Swiss banking secrecy laws, 2 ) profit ( lawyers here, yes? ) .

It is truly amazing how they really abuse the priviledge of running a company - yet even though there is nothing I like about the management or the fact that they invested in a mine that is the lowest yielding of any I have ever research ( kemess gets very little gold per ton of HARD ROCK ) and they have to ship the concentrate elsewhere to be poured ) I like the TA of the graph - it looks just like RANGY!! lol It has only traded 8600 shares so far - something is up!!

CNBC Just reported New Home Sales down 5% - sure.
Earlier this week, Existing Home Sales were up, so we are suppose to believe that new home sales are down 5% - NOPE, NOT, Nada, NEVER. Well if this is true we truly have a new paradigm, don't we?

El Nino keeps rates low again - God works in strange ways. No rate hike now, IMHO.

More hidden inflation. Did you hear the interview with the homebuilder yesterday, he is raising his prices $5K / week or month - wow!
He said land and material prices going up also.
General labor not to bad but management and skilled labor high.

No inflation - sure.

HighRise

Have they opened that mine Kermeses or what ever it is called. They had $ and labor problems up the ying yang on that project.

HighRise

Supposedly it is 96.0000000000000000000001 % completed - I really don't see how with the interest payments etc and low yield they will make money - only if gold goes above 350- 375 - just to break even - I think there is too much resistance to break above 350

Gold likes the low New Home Sales, it knows better! Fed will keep rates low fueling inflation.

Go Gold!

HighRise

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Apr 29, 1998 @ 10:13 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3100 +6 +0.2 3101 3086 32.1K
SI K8 May Silver 6125 +10 +0.2 6135 6045 10.7K
HG N8 July High Grade Copper 8560 -35 -0.4 8580 8460 7.67K
PL N8 July Platinum 4000 -40 -1.0 4020 3950 2.18K
PA M8 June Palladium 30600 +210 +0.7 30700 29900 546

OZ gold Index with 100 & 200 day m/a's
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image280.gif

Gold long term RSI
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image281.gif

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Where's the dippies for the Dow?
Are the profit takers taking their profits.

to all dbndeep sportsfans
1. Cautionary is also on rangold !! It involves
rangy holding of Crown ( 25 mill shares?? ) ...
. Remembering that B.Kebble has short arms and deep
pockets, I assume that the crown shares will be
purchased with DD shares rather than cash but I
could be wrong.
2. Heard a rumour that DDeeps quarterly results showed
a loss of 0.15 R per share, which is better than last
quarter.
3. News flash .. anglogold will seek NYSE listing.
This was one reason they distanced from deBeers ..
as US regarded deBeers as a monopoly .. If they list
on NYSE and US shareholder get a taste of RSA earnings
and dividends compared to NA results ... its hello
RSA and Byebye NA mine prices. Local ML mine analyst
reportedly said NA institutions and fund managers will
go overweight RSA and underweight NA gold.
in other words .... vronsky WAS SPOT ON .. eat your
heart out Pyrites Pimple-nell.

Gold $350 is very possible if what we know to be true is true and if markets perform as they have for the last 5000 years Cheops, Solomon, and Caesar Cleopatra - that kinda of thing.

World History & Physics - "Hot Air will only carry one so high - until a golden eagle's beak pokes a hole in one's balloon." Theory by Ralph

HighRise

It was reported yesterday that it appears from the volume that investors are no longer buying the dips - they are now selling on the highs.

An old paradigm.

HighRise

Do I gather correctly that you do not like the Kebbles? Please elaborate why DUR shares would not be as good as cash ( for the long term ) - any idea of the price to be used in the transfer?

Does this mean you would buy, sell, hold or watch for your own account ?
Ofcourse, all the usual advice disclaimers being fully acknowledged !

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Quarterly report link for those who follow this North Maerican Blue Chip Gold Miming behemouth..... http://sec.yahoo.com/e/980428/hm.html

If the day traders can just leave RYO - it must be pretty boring there for them - lol - then RYO Might go up?

Donald, asked me to pass on this message to you:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980428/lihir_gold_1.html

I agree. You know this, I know this, and the Bronfmans et al also know this.

But they spank them anyhow.
I think the reasons which you state are also true.

There are more reasons. They will also want to test how much gold they get out of induced guilt feelings. They want to know how well this machanism works under the absurdest circumstances. That's part of political science. To figure out how much profit the professional application of irrationality brings.
Empirical sociological studies. And the targetted victim pays for the cost of the experiment. At least!

Alberich the Dwarf

STUDIO.R asked-- "Where are we trying to go with this BIS/Hong Kong office observation? BIS/China/Japan vs. W.Bank/IMF/US? EMU? M. East? Strategy: Currency War field headquarters?"

1. 2000 is Year of Dragon --a 60 year cycle {:- ) )
2. Probabilities 91.4% -- China will LINK to gold ( evaluate
Chinas use of capital v. USG use of capital...revealing )
3. Near and Far East ( think Islamic world + China ) are on parallel tracks, pursuing a common goal ( different motivations, but at this juncture, that really doesnt matter ) .
4. Much more on this in just a bit.

Lets get Donald up and running. Can we pleeeeeease solve Donalds problem?

Your 10:00 AM makes much sense and is a message that seems to be oft ignored here. In spite of our economic problems, and the "bubble" in equities created by the 10% per annum money supply expansion flowing to same, the U.S. remains the strongest economy worldwide, with quite solid fundamentals when one considers;

* Low unemployment
* Low interest rates ( artificial though they may be )
* Strong profit picture
* Highest productivity worldwide
* Strong dollar
* High consumer confidence
* relatively low inflation ( Though I agree with those who state ACTUAL inflation is much higher than reported )

Just where will investment monies go? I think this hype over the EU and their partially Gold backed currency will come to naught, as far as any major negative effect on EU competitivness with U.S. dollar. ( Though it may give a small boost to Gold.. )

Don't mean to flag wave, but the mighty U.S. economy is much stronger than many here give credit for.

Gold's potential lies in looming stagflation ahead, following this long asset inflation caused by money supply expansion... ( IMHO ) , and of course the fact that Gold has been "oversold" due to CB dumping for past few years and has surely seen it's bottom at $280.

Has silver actually lost $1.32, regained $1.36, and lost $1.31 again in
the past half hour or are the displays just acting up? The charts don't seem to show it, and I haven't been able to verify it anywhere else yet.

Both up over 2% this morning!

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 11:04
SDRer__A ( Good morning-- ) ID#288155:

Good morning. Very powerful "Probabilities 91.4% -- China will LINK to gold " and"Near and Far East ( think Islamic world + China ) are on parallel tracks, pursuing a common goal ".

I don't think we need much else to blow the top off of the price of gold.

We now return you to your regular scheduled Gold Bull market...

I finally got some raw data. It's on COT for commodities from last week back thru 1996. I was only after gold, but I got everything. I can't handle this volume and I don't know how to extract gold only. Can you help? If nothing else, I'll send you the 3.5 if you want to deal with it. Let me know. Thanx Charlie

Remember the recent alliance between China and South Africa - Goods for Gold?

HighRise

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image282.gif
They sure are selling in Europe.
These indices are starting to resemble Asia a few months back.

I was interrupted by life, so didn't finish that last post. But did want to elaborate just a bit. Hope to put this Swiss issue in context.

In Nazi Germany, there was a well-organized underground railroad that ended up at the west end of Lake Konstanz ( Constance ) on the south German border and through farmers' fields into Switzerland. I've been there. It's a source of great pride for the people who survived the risks they took, helping people to escape the clutches of the SS. Swiss neutrality was not only desirable, it was used very effectively by the allies.

Maybe I am blinded by the overwhelming sight of a USG hopelessly obsessed with knowing every detail of every transaction everywhere ( as well as medical and psychological records and location at every moment of everyone ) .

But, if a tree falls during a great storm, however rotten its core, we would consider that the storm is at least partially responsible for its demise. This Swiss banking issue needs to be considered in terms of the desires of governments, particularly USG, to erode privacy of all types, especially transactions that might be TAXED.

Gold is under media assault, too. We have been seeing reports recently that it is a tool for money launderers. There will be many more, if, as I believe, it is under a concerted attack. What is more private and less tracable than a gold transaction? There are not even a serial number on gold coins!

For more info on the strange ways of the USG and a seemingly paranoid desire to know ALL, check out this site:

http://www.zolatimes.com/V29/amerika.html

p.s. I eschew conspiracies for the most part, but the long arm of the USG has been used time and time again to stir up media attention over decades to win public support for the introduction of otherwise repugnant laws. This is well-documented, and I am supposing here that it is not in question.

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.9/amerika.html

What RYO's got is megatons of dormant capacity, porfitable at higher prices. At 400-500 gold it will be trading in the teens or higher.

POG, XAU, and shares look ready to push higher. ECU will announce % of gold to be held to back currency this weekend. Speculators will drive price up in anticipation of 25%-30% reserves. Look for large rises thursday and friday. Farfel may be right! GO GOLD!

RYO has been making continuous BOllinger band "islands" ( working on the fourth one in two days right now ) on the 5 minute graph - THis is EXPLOSIVE!! one way or another!!

As much as things seem to change, they really don't really change that much - do they.

China, Iran, Europe - the Old Silk Trade Route.
Throw in the Euro backed by Gold and you have an Aircraft carrier in the Gulf that is out of Gas.

HighRise

I hope you are right, I have a bunch of RYO.

They will, if the financing is finalized, and it may be.

Go Gold let her RIP!!!

HighRise

VP's 10:00am and LGB's recent backing of it. I hope the 'bugs/dudes' aren't putting all their EGGS in this basket. The eggs may break and the bacon will lose it's sizzle.......and the US will dominate the markets again........until the 'other' countries 'correct' their problems.....the proof has been in the pudding for a few years now............I guess now it's time for EB to get a lesson in the US national debt, etc. and walls come tumblin down and take off the blinders and buy gold, etc......just because.

Sorry Donald, I had to say it. I know trouble lurks but whats a guy to do..........buy Dell of course ( smile ) . I prefer it over guns, gold and k-rations ( ? ) ...........and this is why I like commodities. Throughout all 'crashes' in equities....commodities still traded and people still made some 'duckies', YES? Peopleos gotta have their bran flakes to keep em regular......YES? Peopleos gotta have their ground beef to make their hamburgers....YES?

away......before this gets too rediculous....YES?



G o G o l d

Did y'all see the post about "NAVAPATTERNS" earlier? I'm going to cal for a price-it's 8:30 Pac time.

Those tons seem to be disapearing from comex stocks.


New York-April 28-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:
Total 108,771 0 225 -225 108,546



New York-April 20-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
-------------------------------------------------
Delivery
point previous received withdrawn net chg total
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total 110,820 0 614 -614 110,206



New York-April 17-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Total 111,464 0 644 -644 110,820


New York-April 13-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Total 112,531 346 197 149 112,680


New York-April 7-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )

Total 112,408 0 149 -149 112,259

GB - after reading your post I am very hungry now!! cut that out!!

What amazes me is that the world is waiting for the
Dow to correct to begin the coming correction.

Why the Dow?

Asia has confirmed the beginning of the correction,
Europe is endorsing the continuation.
America has only to look outside itself to realize that the events
That lead up to a correction are already in place.

It's like looking at the forrest but not being able to see the trees.

The same applies to gold.
Already throughout Asia gold has soared.
Other countries are already seeing their gold price starting to soar.
America has only to look afield to see what awaits.

We don't have to wait for the process to arrive or begin.
It has started.
It started last year,
And will take years to fully unfold.

But don't worry about waiting?

Thanks for the RYO info.

HighRise

the game is nearly up, and the oh so powerful US myth economy with it. Un huh...

You are RATIONAL! {:- ) ) )

Oh well, you have grown use to it.

Love that China 94.1 % likely to link to gold ... and work with Islam. Wow the USdollar will have a heck of a fall with those two items make the appropriate announcements.

SDRer pray tell us more.

You know how the mutual funds are prepared for the crash? They have the clause in the customer agreements that they can give shares instead of cash when shareholders want to redeem!!

Donald is up and running...

Thanks for the charts, all markets appear to be rolling over - except Gold related.

HighRise

A married man was having an affair with his secretary. One

day, their passions overcame them and they took off for her

house, where they made passionate love all afternoon.

Exhausted from the wild sex, they fell asleep, awakening

around eight p.m. As the man threw on his clothes, he told

the woman to take his shoes outside and rub them through the

grass and dirt. Mystified, she nonetheless complied. He

slipped into his shoes and drove home.

"Where have you been?" demanded his wife when he entered the house.

"Darling, I can't lie to you. I've been having an affair

with my secretary and we've been having sex all afternoon

and I fell asleep."

The wife glanced down at his shoes and said, "You lying bastard!

You've been playing golf!!"

---------------------------------------------

Ted......yer next to last day has been VERY quiet.....c'mon man you have plenty of time to clean up all those seeds and stems from the carpet.........the judge won't mind anyway. NOW...get to posting dammit!

away....to return later to read no less than 20 posts from Ted regarding his recent studies of the gold charts and his THOUGHTS on them. And throw in some humor too..........

thanks

*

More true a post never placed on Kitco!

Only because the markets are starting to RATIONALIZE

Could someone remind what was the interest rate on the 30 year bond when gold was last at $405 per ounce?

Thanks in advance.

China, Iran, Europe - the Old Silk Trade Route

You have 'revealed' more than you may realize!!! {:- ) )

Perhaps the Japanese should have more "Golden Week" holidays. Is today the day we SURGE? Go gold. ( Mahn, I lub deese metal ) .

Sad but true. One family member still believes...sigh..................

I would like to see what the Turkey or Greece indices look like.
They have been forming a real parabolic blowoff.

Truly a sea of change.
Or a change in the see.

Perception will become reality.
To stop and look around
Reminds me of LGB

"It doesn't get better than this."

Heard a 1 hour show with Paul Erdman as guest yesterday. Famous economist and author of several books. Though many here would condemn the man as "mainstream", he made many of the points we see here frequently. Namely,

1 ) One of greatest threats to U.S. economy would be wholesale dumping of U.S. debt by Japan, in the event their economic woes worsen.

2 ) The money supply has been expanding too fast and ought to be slowed by the FED. AG is rollin over in semi paralysis, like a deer caught in the headlights.

3 ) The EU could possibly become a more formidable competitor in the future ( though not likely for quite a long time )

4 ) Consumer confidence, has had a somewhat artificial boost due to the "paper" wealth that folks now perceive as their portfolios have soared to unprecedented gains.

Paul E. didn't say much about Gold, but the one interesting point ( IMHO ) that he did make, was that our current economic prosperity has virtually nothing to do with Bill Clitton, ( or even George Bush ) whereas Ronnie R., FED policy, and a Republican congress deserve much of the credit.

Not that I would ever demean this forum by suggesting that anyone here would believe BillC. deserves an iota of credit for booming economy....

Much as I get critical from time to time, I realize the average intellect here at Kitco is way beyond the level of the masses out there who give BillC higher and higher approval ratings, the more crimes he commits.

don't forget copper too!! it is at 8600 on the July contract - gold and copper make a nice team

6.08%

If it brakes through 6.1% look out.

HighRise

RYO is gonna break out of 1 1/8 today - only 46000 left on the ask!!

"... you will be drawn more and more to the Big Yellow. At first to make a few bucks. Then to appreciate how money really works. And finally to
discover the sublime moral philosophy of true value and the reality of
real things..." And I add that upon reaching that stage one finds no salvation in the earliest phase of the evolution.

I trust that by now your new ring has been received? Been sailing?
Got wind?

WHAT'S GOIN' ON!!!!!

sorry if my preoccupation with RYO is annoying anyone - but I have my kids entire college fund in it!! ( now I only have to get some kids )

AH! That's better!

You said......Reminds me of LGB "It doesn't get better than this."

But Nickster, it truly DOESN'T get better than this! However.... this isn't necessarily rosy, when you have no direction to move but down eh?

If POG has made an intermediate low and climbs a bit from here... it will be tough for RANGY to stay at this level ( IMHO of course ) and could break out on the upside and enlarge its squeezing Bollinger Bands..... because
( a ) On Balance Volume looks great ( an index of accumulation, taking into account the volume of trade ) http://members.aol.com/gaston2/april98/rangy1.gif
and ( b ) yesterday's Japanese Candle http://members.aol.com/gaston2/april98/rangy2.gif was slightly bullish...
Good luck... still speculation, IMHO...
Gaston

may silver is 6165 - those bad numbers must be el nino!

RYO - Gold and COPPER!

I read where they have a copper mine in Fuiji or somewhere, I just ignored that and the Kermees copper report - may be something to it?

HighRise

http://www.cam.org/~jacad/charts/30Yyeild.gif
Here's a good long term look at the 30 year bond yield.

25200 left on ask on RYO - RANGY bollinger bands are the tightest since clpzf -

Highrise - I have a copper mine in my closet - so many pre-1981 pennies i have to put my girlfriends close in the other room!! lol

anyone care about calvf or fdymf or hvgo?

It is only money, and if you have kids you won't have any money anyway - it is all the same some days.

If you bought RYO low enough you will be Ok, I had a broker talk me into some a long time ago ( @ $6 I think, I try to forget ) . I did buy some at a much lower price, so I could reduce my cost basis. We will see.

HighRise

FOR Highrise ..
Your pipedream about an alliance between RSA and China
is really silly. RSA has started trading with China
and has switched from supporting Taiwan to mainland
China .. RSA gold goes to whoever BUYS it .. RSA does
have to do BARTER deals .. what in the world are you
talking about .. RSA trades mainly with Europe and
has only started trading broadly with Asia in the
past few years... "goods for gold" is a meaningless
slogan ... You seem to think that RSA is like
Zambia ... it's more like California.
for Newtron/lakeside... Kebble is fine and I hold
DD preferreds and a slew of options... I was just in
and out of DD common stock for a short gain. Kebble
is fine .. he is cash short however because at this
gold price DD doent make a profit .. if you read my
posts or used my spread sheet this would be obvious.
I like DD at a gold price over 325$. I've said this a
lot.
I am not worried about the cautionary .. I assume
that randgold and deeps will swop crown for deeps
stock at something like 10 crowns for a share of deeps.
maybe less to give rangold shareholders a premium
say 8:1 ... But I like ANYTHING that simplifies
Rangold's holdings .. The simpler it gets, the closer
the price will approach the NAV I believe.

If you didn't read the subject paper mentioned by Prometheus, please
do. It is absolutely mind-boggling. This is not fiction or doom-
and-gloom forecasting; it is fact and it is LAW and we are all
criminals if we even unknowingly violate some small part of these
virtually hidden "laws". PEOPLE WAKE UP AND SMELL THE VODKA, I
MEAN COFFEE.

That is all.

Sorry! I just now saw your answer to my first post, while I was out and about. I've got to go examine those rules about beating a dead horse again, eh?

an interesting thing about SA stocks - what about if gold goes up in $ and the rand goes down ?? Prices of DROOY and RANGY have to go up

Poison-Eating Bugs Strike Gold

The richness of Australias unique biodiversity has been highlighted with the
discovery by scientists from CSIRO and BacTech Pty Ltd, a Perth-based
mining biotechnology firm, of indigenous microbes capable of devouring toxic
effluent from gold extraction.

The discovery could also pave the way for a major advance in clean green
processing of minerals such as gold, copper, nickel and zinc from sulphide
ores.

Dr Peter Franzmann and Mr Matthew Stott of CSIRO Land and Water and
CSIRO Minerals have identified several new species of native microbes able
to break down the thiocyanate formed from the cyanide used to extract gold.

The project is funded by the Western Australian Government through its WA
Innovation Support Scheme ( WAISS ) , which fosters small innovative
enterprises in the State.

Their discovery has led to the development of a process for cleansing the
waste streams from inland gold mines, where clean water is often a scarce and
costly commodity. Based on a process used by the Homestake mine in the
United States, this system uses uniquely Australian organisms adapted to the
local conditions.

We found these bacteria thriving in the tailings ponds of a gold mine in the
Western Australian goldfields, Dr Franzmann explains.

Part of the project is to develop a modified bioreactor to process the mine
effluent which better suits the local microbes and the specific degradation
process.

We have put them to work in a new system for purifying the waste water, and
so far they have managed to reduce the concentration of toxin in the
waste-stream 15-fold, he says.

If we can fine-tune the process a bit more, it will make the water completely
re-usable by mines that bioleach refractory ores prior to cyanide gold
extraction. Quality water is scarce in WAs gold-producing regions - and any
technology which allows us to recycle it will benefit both the industry and the
environment.

Dr Franzmann says the discovery highlights the remarkable range and diversity
of Australian lifeforms. These bacteria apparently thrive in toxic, salty
environments in which few other aquatic animals and plants can survive.

The metabolic versatility of bacteria, which carry out most of the
environmental services in cleaning up the contaminants, can be harnessed in
engineered situations to degrade and detoxify waste effluents.

Using molecular biology techniques, Mr Stott has found that these microbes
closest relatives are probably the kinds of bacteria which are found in the
depths of the ocean, feeding off the mineral-rich streams from hydrothermal
vents in the sea-floor. But these ones are from the surface, and are completely
new to science.

Scientists now think Australia harbours a multitude of poison-munching
microbes, which could be used to render harmless a wide range of industrial
and other forms of pollution, and so protect our rivers, lakes, wetlands and
groundwater.

But according to Program Leader Dr Martin Houchin of CSIRO Minerals the
technology may deliver an even more significant advance -- a purely biological
way to extract minerals, especially gold, from sulphide ores.

At the moment we can use bacteria to bio-oxidise certain gold ores, to open
them up so the gold can be leached out conventionally using cyanide, he says.

However the potential is there to use bacteria to biologically produce a
leaching agent for extracting the gold, resulting in a fully biological process.

The result would not only be a new clean, green way to extract gold but also a
process which promises to be cheaper for producers, making Australian gold
more internationally competitive.

In this way, the team hopes, Australias unique biological diversity may help to
give our minerals industry both an economic and an environmental edge over
the world.

I like your optimism
When I look around the town of Cairns I see so much prosperity.

It seems like everyones riding the wave.

Technology has really elevated our lifestyles.

I can see lots more improvements still to come.

But you only need to look around to see troubled waters ahead.

"It doesn't get better than this."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://cnnfn.com/markets/crash/crash_results.html
Do you think a stock-market crash will happen again?

Haven't seen any NA mutual funds clamoring to buy RSA BS yet! China and N. Korea maybe but not any non-socialist countries! The China-RSA link is SPOT ON! Who knows? If'n your lucky you'll get to move to Beijing before too myuch longer!

I haven't been in California in awhile - but is disney right that ther are now shanty towns and necktie parties in California like there is SA???

XAU and PMs, which way will they go?
IMHO the next couple of days should tell us where we are
heading. If we test the top and then correct for the next
few weeks, as I suspect, next week should be down.
If on the other hand, we blow through this top and go
higher then the next resistance could be as high as the 350 range.

Only time will tell.

Depends on how we define "crash". My guess is a "correction" is ahead, when the FED raises rates...maybe if some World crises erupts such as a Japanese meltdown...maybe some unforseen circumstance....maybe in May.

Maybe a 1500 to 2000 point drop max. After that, only major changes in the economic fundamentals would warrant a long term bear. With the Boomer generation of prosperity ahead of us for a couple more decades at least, and third world countries beginning to "get healthy" again..... maybe we'll see the DOW making new highs over and over again in the coming years.

Lot's o' "Maybes" in this post.

Example: Housing starts down 5%? Instead of the 20 houses last year, theyll only build 19 this year. First, the data isnt accurate within 5%. Second, 19 is still a very strong number. Third, since this doesn't really "forecast" anything, it's worthles, unless you're a politician trying to impress some voter with your track record.


In the next year or so, PMs are going up-up-and-away, and the entire economy is going in the toilet for several reasons.


1. The Euro. Long-term, it wont work ( a couple of years, max ) . These countries have been independent for hundreds of years; a few politicians arent going to change history in a short period. When the first countrys economy starts going downhill ( severe unemployment/inflation/et. al. ) , itll pull out. THATS WHEN THE FUN WILL BEGIN!! Does anyone REALLY believe that another government bureaucracy ( the EEU ) can solve any economic problems?


2. Asia. Fundamental problems there have not yet come home to roost. When unemployment hits 9-10% in Japan, theyll stop being nice guys.


3. Y2K. If only 5% of all banks and power grids are out for just a few weeks ( and it will be worse!! ) , this will shatter investor and consumer confidence for decades. How will you feel when your electricity goes out, and no one can tell you if it will be out for a week, a month, or a year?


4. Our Lifestyles. In the 1920s, most Americans lived on small farms. It was possible to feed your family with the goods you produced. Today, most farms are large, heavily mechanized, and therefore dependent on the overall economy. If the electricitys shut off for a couple of days, production for the entire year will be impacted: cows will stop giving milk, meat will spoil, gasoline cant be pumped, crops cant be tended... Can you imagine the USA ( or especially Asia ) if a years food production is cut by 50%? ( No more Lean Cuisine! )

Example: Housing starts down 5%? Instead of the 20 houses last year, theyll only build 19 this year. First, the data isnt accurate within 5%. Second, 19 is still a very strong number. Third, since this doesn't really "forecast" anything, it's worthles, unless you're a politician trying to impress some voter with your track record.


In the next year or so, PMs are going up-up-and-away, and the entire economy is going in the toilet for several reasons.


1. The Euro. Long-term, it wont work ( a couple of years, max ) . These countries have been independent for hundreds of years; a few politicians arent going to change history in a short period. When the first countrys economy starts going downhill ( severe unemployment/inflation/et. al. ) , itll pull out. THATS WHEN THE FUN WILL BEGIN!! Does anyone REALLY believe that another government bureaucracy ( the EEU ) can solve any economic problems?


2. Asia. Fundamental problems there have not yet come home to roost. When unemployment hits 9-10% in Japan, theyll stop being nice guys.


3. Y2K. If only 5% of all banks and power grids are out for just a few weeks ( and it will be worse!! ) , this will shatter investor and consumer confidence for decades. How will you feel when your electricity goes out, and no one can tell you if it will be out for a week, a month, or a year?


4. Our Lifestyles. In the 1920s, most Americans lived on small farms. It was possible to feed your family with the goods you produced. Today, most farms are large, heavily mechanized, and therefore dependent on the overall economy. If the electricitys shut off for a couple of days, production for the entire year will be impacted: cows will stop giving milk, meat will spoil, gasoline cant be pumped, crops cant be tended... Can you imagine the USA ( or especially Asia ) if a years food production is cut by 50%? ( No more Lean Cuisine! )

Oh Canada.....ship your gold ore to RSA for economical refining!

I don't know what you want to do with your data. Looks like you have too short a time span to do an analysis. Forty years of weekly data is about right for the type thing I do and then is you want to get a little refinement at the end of the data stream you do something with daily data to pick up the little oscillations not visible in a longer data stream.

April 29, 1998 12:32 EDT - Gold bull market is official - RYO cleared all resistance at 1 1/8 -

6.085 %, me thinks the Japs may be selling. Rangy is a sturborn about falling as it is gaining.

FOR John Disney:

You said,
Your pipe dream about an alliance between RSA and China is really silly. RSA has started trading with China and has switched from supporting Taiwan to mainland China .. 

Is this not a trade alliance between China and South Africa? It is not my Pipe Dream it is reported fact - and you just stated the same. Are we not both talking about TRADE. What is your problem sir?

I did not compare SA to any other country - you did that. Please do not speak for me. pipe dream I do not insult you sir, so why should you insult me?

HighRise

Sir Alberich, you opened my eyes on bloody role of
Non-Russians and Swiss in particular in the
Russian history. This "Stalin's brother-in-law"
thing was particularly impressive ( did Uncle Joe
really have brother-in-law working for him?..who
in the hell could he be..? )

But the most important info you delivered was that
Zar Nicolas II could have gold, which was held by Swiss,
the Non-Russian greedy bankers. I see the Imperial Romanov
Family now jumping on Swiss in attempt to sue those
sons of swiss franks for hiding the truth for so long...

Next time I'm in Europe, Swiss and all other Non-Russians
are gonna be sorry for messing with Russian history....

I bet you are Russian, yes?

Aside from all the diverse opinions, the long distance boxing matches on the in-house tv's are great!

Beginning to think that my GTC order of RANGY @ 1.25 will never be filled. DRATS

Thanks for the humor.
California and South Africa.

Did you hear about the Nuclear Reactor SA sold to China - another joke.

HighRise

highrise - just don't mention mandella dying to disney and you'll be okay!! lol

As I indicated yesterday, the modest rally in PM stocks while POG fell was extremely bullish. I only worry when POG rallies and the PM stocks don't.

The latest market commentary from the World Gold Council:




----------------------------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY
( April 20 - April 24, 1998 )
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold prices continued to improve last week, building upon the
stronger tone that began to develop in late March. With palladium
remaining the focus of the precious metals sector, soaring to record
highs on ongoing problems in Russia, the gold market initially held in
its consolidation pattern just above the $307 level. Nervousness over
the prospects for equity and other markets remained supportive, and
strong fund buying emerged in New York on Tuesday night, carrying
quotations sharply above $310. On the next day prices consolidated
around the $312 level but then broke up to $315 on Thursday on the
emergence of further fund buying. Overhead resistance proved too
strong at this point, however, and the rather overheated market then
gave back some of its gains, closing the week at $313. Further
profit-taking occurred on Monday 27th, with underlying support
beginning to emerge at $310. The OTC gold options expiry on
Tuesday 28th passed uneventfully with little effect on prices.

The latest CFTC figures show that the more positive turn in market
sentiment led to both further short-covering and fresh speculative
buying of gold during the two weeks ending April 21st. During this
period the net long position of the large speculators on Comex rose
from 5,247 contracts ( equivalent to 16.3 tonnes ) to 12,591 contracts
( 39.2 tonnes ) . Gold lease rates fell once again over the week, the
one-month rate from 1.08% to 0.77% and the 12-month rate from
1.90% to 1.86%. This continued decline is attributable to ongoing
short-covering by speculators - especially in the OTC market - and
additional producer buy-backs of forward hedging positions as well
as increased market liquidity from central bank lending. Among the
new lenders Switzerland, which started lending to the market last
November and built up a loan book of 99 tonnes by the year-end,
has reportedly an average maturity of 8 months on its gold deposits,
below the 12 months maturity initially authorised.

Dubai's gold imports in March totalled 39.368 tonnes, down from
52.51 tonnes in February. This decline is mainly due to higher direct
imports of gold into India by banks and institutions that had
previously used Dubai as a regional trans-shipment centre; it is
reported that banks are building up consignment stocks within India
in order to satisfy demand fluctuations. Nevertheless, Dubai's first
quarter imports, at 153 tonnes, are virtually unchanged from the
record 154 tonnes seen in the first quarter of 1997.

Russia's Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations has issued general
licences for the export of gold and silver, valid for one year, to
Uneximbank and to Menatep Bank. Applications for licences have
also been submitted by Vneshtorgbank, Inkombank and Novaya
Moskva Bank.


If you have any questions or comments on this input, please address them
to George Milling-Stanley in our New York office, Tel. +212 688 0005,
Fax. +212 371 5466, E-mail GMillingStanley@compuserve.com.

Any news on deliveries today Goose?
Got my first Harmony
Look at Silver actually up???!!!
Year 2000 looking forward to reading more of your writings - gosh end of world as we know it - what will happen to my daily Kitco fix in 2000.

please, do not call my Brother John bad names,
otherwise I will be forced to act like a drunken
Russian sailor completely out of control - you are not
gonna like it...

RYO
12:23PM
1 1/8
+1/16
+5.88%
230,700
PSGQF
12:17PM
0.610000
+0.070000
+12.96%
67,300

HighRise

While I am waiting for an helpful answer to my first question:

********
Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 11:39
A.Goose ( ) ID#20135:
Could someone remind what was the interest rate on the 30 year bond when gold was last at $405 per ounce?

Thanks in advance.
********

Could someone help me with this question.

Could someone remind what was the price of spot gold and the Dow the last time the 30 year bond was at 6.088?

Interesting I think.

Dont ever look back......

Highrise - you should be feeling good - the 20 day and 50 day moving averages of RYO are crossing just as I post this - I hope we are on the way to you breaking even on your RYO - ( at that point - I think I could Buy my future kids their own college ) I'm in way to deep on RYO!! lol

Highrise - you should be feeling good - the 20 day and 50 day moving averages of RYO are crossing just as I post this - I hope we are on the way to you breaking even on your RYO - ( at that point - I think I could BYE my future kids their own college ) I'm in way to deep on RYO!! lol

In addition all the big money on this planet is not in NA. Huge and I mean HUGE money around the globe still think very highly of RSA stocks. So I think the discussion on RSA vs. NA mining stocks is a moot point.

Clearly as CC and others have pointed out there are stocks in NA that may in fact out perform many RSA stocks.

Does anybody really care as long as you put down a win, place or show bet and make money?

In the last.................your bets are on gold..........the Derby is on tomorrow and it will all be talk until the race is over in the winners circle.

But a horse is a horse, even if it is of a different color.

The Economist, Economic Indicators, February or March, in Commodity Price Index blurb, detailing the worlds wheat production remarked that total production and total usage were very periously close and that production figures forward ( 1998] were estimated at what use had been the previous year, that is to say, there was no wiggle room. That is important market pricing information, yes?

This weeks Economist, April 25th - May 1st 1998, Commodity Price Index
states the following:
Americas farmers are pressing their agriculture department to revive wheat export subsidies, last used in 1995. Thanks to weak demand, wheat export prices have fallen by a third over the past year, to a five year low. The American government fears that use of its export enhancement programme would prompt the European Union to increase its own subsidies. Following a sale of subsidised EU barley to California, it has urged the European Commission to ban all subsidised agricultural sales to America. The agriculture department is looking at other options to help farmers, such as expanding export credit guarantees and its PL480 export-aid scheme for needy countries.

Wheat has VALUE, and if world production in 1998 is only equal to world usage in 1997, then the price of the wheat should reflect that-- yet, this is obviously not so.

The Pricing Mechanism is malfunctioning, because there is no standard of uniform measure that carries relevant information through the pricing hierarchy.
bbl

FWN: 030542 GMT


LME Stocks: Copper Falls 2,425 Mt to 269,325



London-April 29-FWN--STOCKS OF METAL IN LONDON METAL
Exchange warehouses at the end of business Thursday in
metric tons were:
-- aluminum, 518,825 ( -1,800 ) ;
-- aluminum alloy, 49,520 ( -20 ) ;
-- copper, 269,325 ( -2,425 ) ;
-- nickel, 64,572 ( -936 ) ;
-- lead, 107,300 ( -100 ) ;
-- tin, 6,470 ( -75 ) ; and
-- zinc, 460,800 ( +1,325 )

********

Is a trend setting in.

Somebody just made a trade on DROOY at 2 5/8......

Sorry you aren't getting any help on your question - but I think most people here are looking FORWARD to gold at 405 not back to when gold was at 405 ( sorry about the double posts - my edits get double posted for some reason )

Hype hype hype.... you said;

"3. Y2K. If only 5% of all banks and power grids are out for just a few weeks ( and it will be worse!! ) , this will
shatter investor and consumer confidence for decades"

Such overblown rhetoric destroys the credibility of your entire argument. Y2K is still a year and a hlaf away, and already we have articles appearing in the mainstream press daily about what it'll cost to fix, it's possible impact, etc.etc.etc.

Modern society has only been fully "computerized" and computer dependant for perhaps a decade. And you're telling me that whatever problems left to solve on 1/1/2000 are going to destroy consumer confidence for "decades"?? In this day of world crises which cause nary a blip on our radar screens? Puuuhhhhhhllleeeeaaaaaazzzzeeeee.....

Let's get real.

for highrise..
RSA trades with UK USA Russia france
japan and almost everyboby .. China
represents a much smaller fraction of
its foreign trade than it does with the
US. Does the US have a "trade alliance"
with China ??
Sorry if you feel insulted .. "Goods
for gold" is the silliest slogan Ive
heard since "dollars for donuts" ...
You should be proud of it.
You know .. Mandela looks a little
Chinese when he wears those sunglasses..
ever notice ?? do you think he looks OK
by the way ??

http://biz.yahoo.com/snp/980429/mdg_min_in_1.html

Wednesday, April 29, 1998

Royal Oak lifeline could be delayed

By DAN WESTELL
Securities Industry Reporter The Financial Post
The life-saving US$120-million loan Trilon Financial Corp. has agreed to make to Royal Oak
Mines Inc. could be delayed until mid-May, said Trilon president George Myhal.
The mining company had hoped junior debt holders would approve the loan, which would
stand ahead of their US$175-million investment, by mid-April.
The junior holders are concerned about the rich return  more than 10%, plus fees and a
royalty on the Kemess, B.C., gold-copper project  Trilon would receive.
But Royal Oak was desperate for cash to complete the nearly finished mine.
"Not any other lenders, it appears, expressed any interest," Myhal said yesterday after Trilon's
annual meeting.
Royal Oak disclosed recently it had considered selling properties or equity and royalty and
merger arrangements before settling on the Trilon loan.
If that financing is done, "the company believes it will have sufficient financial resources to
continue operations," Royal Oak said.
The company could not be reached for comment.
Trilon's Royal Oak loan is the kind of deal it will be seeking as it leans toward merchant
banking and commercial lending after selling London Insurance Group last year.
It has more than $2.5 billion invested in securities and loans, including more than $1.3 billion
in companies related to Trilon's controlling shareholder, EdperBrascan Corp. Last year, those
companies produced only $41 million in revenue for Trilon.
The company plans to move its money into investments with higher returns. The board
considered paying a special dividend, said chairman Tim Price, but so far has decided to leave
the money with management to invest.
Trilon is targeting a 12% return on equity, said Frank Lochan, managing partner for
commercial financing.
The actual figure was 8% in the first quarter ended March 31, when it reported profit of $40
million ( 21 a share ) , up from $26 million ( 14 ) a year earlier. Revenue was $133 million,
compared with $125 million.
Trilon has no plans to sell its interest in Royal LePage Ltd., Myhal said.
Trilon shares ( TFCa/TSE ) closed unchanged at $12.75. Royal Oak ( RYO/TSE ) gained 4 to
$1.55.

until after market closes today.

Looks good to me though.


bbl

The full 1Q MDG report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980429/meridian_g_1.html

mandela looked good next to mohamed ali!

At 1:03 PM

sharefin: Saw your 11:31. Our markets are built on faith, and Americans tend to be insular in their perspective, despite increased international trade. Also -- when other markets tank, there is a tendency to buy American equities as a 'flight to safety', just like the 1929 era. I think 'mania money' cannot stay out of the markets, so it goes to the perceived sanctuary -- the US markets.

Now -- if 30 year interest rates reach 7% -- which AG has little power over, we will have a problem. Or when South American markets crash, as much US investment is there -- a bad delayed effect is likely.

What I find frustrating is that the Gold Bug Tsunami surfers really have to be on their toes -- and get off the 'big one' before it hits the beach. Little waves of market turmoil will feed the gold markets.

I am going to grit my teeth and continue riding toward the beach -- based on the premise that the baby boomers will not give up without a big fight, despite the market instability. Hence gold stocks will probably double before the actual market demise.

I wish I were more skilled in options, so that the bulk of my liquid assets was more secure. All I can say is that if the market does crash, I do have 50% cash, and the attempt to ride the gold bug Tsunami was worth it.

Voyeur Professor: Even if European money does flow to US after an ( unlikely in my view ) EU failure, US markets may still tank -- albeit more slowly than otherwise.. They are already so bloated that huge fund flows are required just to keep them where they are, let alone push them up much further.

If the Europeans are stupid enough to pour large sums into US markets at these ozone-like levels -- their losses will exceed those suffered by the Japanese buyers of US real estate in the late 1980s.

I recall that Morgan Stanley equity strategist Byron Wein has said many times that heavy foreign buying of US equites almost always signals an approaching top.

thank you selby - that clinched my rollover from ryo to rangy!!1

Let's have another $7+ day in June gold and then begin the REAL surge ( for I must pyramid my meager holdings to become a millonaire before Y2K makes us all cavemen ) . Gimme a freakin break!

Where did you get this idea about the Chineses and gold?

I still have an open question about the 4000+ contracts fordelivery of April CGold. Actually, I guess the number is around 4200. Is that a total number both delivered and yet to be delivered? Do you know.?lao

For the Pyrites Pimple-nell
I love your posts .. I read them in
the john..
For Oris
Thank you for defending me .. this
guy is dangerous .. he might drool
on me.
for lakeside ..
yes .. rand down .. harmony up drooy
up.. gold up .. same same ..
mandela dies .. fools will sell
rand and H and D profits go up ..
But he looks fine.. probably better
than pyrites does ..

Re your post yest. about relative active sites is being researched. Hexagonal packing in Pt group is not distnquished in my book, but you might look at Magnesium. Same packing is typical of Mg. I've got a couple more sources to go.
If you are conversant with the Harmony refinery, mention EMR Microwave Tech. Murray Gordon @ 506 459 4334 in New Brunswick has a good handle on this and they are producing in PM's and base metals.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out their past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will probably see each of the following FOUR securities again reach their March 1997 highs.

The expected per cent appreciation of these securities follow. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below:

http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/R/RANGY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/D/DROOY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/F/FSAGX.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/wc/form/P1?template=sm/chart&Symbol=I:XAU


XAU would appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: Only 21%

FSAGX would appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY would appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY would appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

Don't just DO Something, SIT THERE!

The treatment afforded Fleischman and Pons by the American Scientific Establishment on publication of their Cold Fusion findings troubles me.
The treatment afforded Newman on demonstration of his electric motor at the National Academy of Sciences troubles me.
The mental garbage posted by Donald issuing from economists at MIT troubles me.
The existence of a PPT for the DOW troubles me.
The evidence of a CPI protection team in government troubles me.

These and many other signs and portents indicate America is led by people who have no qualms about actively suppressing the truth. If the helmsman will lie about the reading of the compass, can the ship be safe ? For me, this is also a compelling reason to hold gold.

All: I think we have had our short-term downswing, and we are slowly heading up. I do appreciate the slow-motion rise, since gold stock investments then need less attention. We may be in for a roller-coaster ride later, when non-gold bugs spot our shift from a 2-year downtrend. I must admit I was close to selling off 25% of my gold stock investment, like Mike Stewart was saying. Sometimes all one has between you and the deep blue sea is faith.

for lakefoil
next to mohamed ali, even pyrites
looks good.

I want to extract raw data and correlate the commercials and specs. This was just a trial run to se if I could get it. Trouble is I got all ofit, not just the gold. I agree re time span. I'm waiting on cal from CFTC to see if I can get just the gold data. Will let you know. BTW Nava Patterns is $799. for S&P and $1350 for gold mkt.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980429/co_echo_ba_1.html

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 13:07
jims ( To Goose ) ID#252391:

1 ) Arden is the best person to ask about comex details.
2 ) It is: 4,362 contracts as of
-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD
ISSUED TODAY 205 0 110
SO FAR FOR April 5,605 71 4,362

These are notices given from folks saying that they have decided to take delivery. They gave comex this information in April. Can't say exactly when they will get delivery as was shown from experiences from Questor and Tlyer Rose. Maybe Arden or comex itself can give you more detailed information. This is about as far as I can go.

3 ) As far as the chinese and gold:

SDRer mentioned it in an earlier post. SDRer will give more details once Donald gets back online.


Hope this helps. Remember buy gold, take delivery and hang onto it.

got to run. bbml

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980430/invest/invest6.html

Try, for a week or two, to track your grocery puchases .. what you buy to eat, both fresh and packaged. Compare this list ( and their ingredients ) with what is grown in your immediate locality. Now consider that what is available in your locality is 95+% hybrids ( can't save this as seed for replanting ) and 100% is seed from 'away' - that is no one raises their own seed anymore. We all depend upon some company at least 100 miles away to produce seed for us ( and we are used to ordering our seed in March or so of the year it is to be planted ) .

Consider that gasoline/diesel to run trackors will be rationed, pesticides and fertilizer will not be generally available. Consider that there is virtually no local processing ( drying/canning ) or storage facilities for foods produced locally.

Consider that the food processing and distribution systems will be in shambles. People have paniced .. Empty shelves .. January .. Next harvest - June or July at the earliest .. If you already have the seed ... if . if . if ...

When was the last time most people in your area didn't eat for 3 to 6 months?

They have commited to $50 millionUS. Part of the $120 million it extended RYO last month."we think it is a good investment said Mr MYhal we have room for it in our portfolio".I guess so they get a fee along with a royalty for arranging the brige financing. In addition RYO will pay Trilon a 1.6% roylalty a year on Kenness s revenue, up to $14 million at which time the royalty will stop. It also agreed to pay a 2% fee. From the Globe and Mail. Sound s like credit cards rates.

The day of Hillary's indictment.

Hell even Barney Fife looks good compared to Cassius Clay ( Calls hisself Mohammed Ali} draft dodger par excellence,almost as good as ol' slick

"Money and Banking" published in "The New Straits Times'
[Kuala Lumpur, August, 1997]. This is posted on the Islamic Finance
website. You may wish to read their article on "Speculation" also.
This site underscores the possibility of disparate groups, whose
common bond is a yearning for HONEST money, working together to clear
a path through the overgrown jungle of fiat/debt paper currency.
Incidently, this is not "my culture"; we are students
together here! {:- )

http://www.islamic-finance.com/item1.htm

mozel: You know about Newman! You are right, he was harassed, partially because Newman is not an engineer, and cannot explain his machines, or convince the skeptics that they work. I suspect they do, but I have not seen one in operation, or done an energy balance calculation. The same problem exists with Podkletnov, a card -- carrying solid state Physicist who discovered what he thinks is a very small gravity nullification effect. Somehow non-Finnish ( probably American ) individuals terrorized him and his coathor -- in Finland! So -- the harrassment occurs outside our country too!

As you state, there is a very strong tendency for humans in power to want to maintain the status-quo. Just imagine what would happen if 'zero-point energy' was used as another source of power, and we could use our valuable oil for making plastics instead of polluting the earth.

I suspect that 'cold fusion' and 'zero-point energy' or whatever it should be called will have its own shortcomings, but access to that energy source will be hard to regulate and otherwise control. And the regulators know that. I think the inertia of the current belief system will mean that these fledgling technologies will not come into the open until the next millenium. I hope you and I live long enough to see this. This is our ticket to the stars.

I am relieved that others as well read as you are keeping tabs on this.

If you have a chance, you should do a net search for 'Clean Energy Technologies', if you have not already done so. This is abbreviated CETI, and they seem to have the first operational commercial 'cold fusion' system. I have no proof of this, just a strong suspicion.

I feel that we are in the early stages of a sustainable recovery, and there are a number of things which will be happening over the next year which will keep the recovery alive ( ECU etc. ) Recent mine closures will enhance the value of those mines that were able to "weather the gold markets recent rough seas"and we will continue to gold stock & mutual fund values take off into the future.

Positive correlation between Dow and Gold is close to its top now:
Day Dow Gold
Mon down down
Tue down down
Wed up up ( till now )
Conclusion: watch Dow

Why not wait to find out just how dependent we are on these things? Wait until there is a definable, real set of problems to assess and deal with. Wait until there is evidence. Wait until someone tells us there is a problem. Wait until ..

OR

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

What is the risk of preparation? A pile of stuff you didn't need in the way you thought you might have? A few dollars ( $165 will buy you 1000 kilograms of spring wheat ) spent on emerengy rations?

What are the risks of not being prepared? Starvation?

What do you pay in insurance every year: home, auto, life? How many years have you paid that without needing it? $1000 to $1500 per year for 10 or 20 years. Hey, but you haven't DIED yet have you? Has your house burned down yet?

So why not plan for the worst by obtaining 1 to 2 thousand dollars worth of supplies in case you need them; earthquake, fire, flood, year 2000. Just think of Y2000 as one of those things that COULD happen. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Allen ( USA ) : The risks to economic calamity that you refer to are indeed increased, and increasing very year. We do not need Y2K to do this -- a big solar flare or a 'squirrel' could do alot of damage too. I still remember the great New York blackout and the turmoil that resulted. Had a minibaby boom from all of those highspeed elevators that weren't. Imagine driving in a NYC yellow cab with no street lights!

Thanks Goose for the info. Looks like a total of 4300+ notices have been issued for delivery. Some have gotten delivery. We'll assume that since there is still gold in them thar vaults that not all have taken delivery. The fact that the Comex inventories have changed so little during the month suggests to me that the delvery process takes place without going in and out tof the stock piles. It also suggests to me that their are vaults of gold other than Comex where gold is stored and from which the metal moves to satisfy delivery.

If I am wrong in my assumptions, and I seek all clarification and when I have time I'll try and dig something up from Comex, and there is a massive 2000-3000 still unsatisfied number of intended gold delivery takers and the Comex vaults or flows into them are the signinficant source of the gold for the deliveries, THEN we have a problem, ROGER. The fact that you and I Goose are the only ones commenting on this suggests the world of Comex is not about to end, as the stats would indicate that their is some other mechanism through which delivery is made and the longs's thirst for their metal is happily satisfied.

SDR, where you pull this bid up about China and gold - in a fortune cookie.

THat company "helping" ryo is the same one that got "mangled" by witte a while back - what goes around comes around I guess - I did my switch from ryo to rangy - out at 1 1/8 RYO and into rangy at 1 15/32

One detail you might check on is -- is that Comex gold "London Good Delivery"?? !!

FLP - Only 14% of Assessment and 1% of code remediation accomplished to date. This represents only about 2% of the entire project.

All Nuclear Power plant will likely be shut down by the NRC ( 22% of US power generation capacity, 45% of Northeastern power consumption, 50+% of Chicago area power consumption. ) .

The two conventional power plants, that we have news on, that were tested, one in Hawaii and one set of generators in the lower 48 states, failed on date roll over.

No Nuclear power plants can be restarted without the power grid being operational. The power grid consists of about 100 mainframe computers talking to each other over the entire continent. The four grid subsystems meet in Nebraska, where all redistribution occures. ( Can we spell "s-i-n-g-l-e p-o-i-n-t o-f f-a-i-l-u-r-e" )

Can you come up with a web site for this? I had one and lost it going to a new computer. Thanx, Charlie

As Delphi points out the dow and gold are lockstep so this gold rally is as fake ( or as real ) as the Dows...however you want to see it.

Only when a gold spike runs through the middle of a Dow down will the rally really begin....Gold could easily drop to $250 or less as the Dow crashes....not a scenario for the faint of heart.

How high can we go?
...the air is thin up here...and then the bankers get nervous.....

Over the last few days , a trend seems to appear in financial markets.

Rates are going higher, stocks are headed lower and commodities behave nicely as oil seems well supported and GOLD tested the downside without success as today's price action seems to indicate.

Is this a new trend?

As far as rates are concerned, the best case for inflation was made by the CLEVELAND FED itself by issuing its report on the median CPI which is the same basket as the headline CPI without the price components which are rising the fastest or falling the most.

Since MARCH 1997 the divergence, which used to be close to nothing, has been steadily rising with headline CPI falling to 1.45% when median CPI is stable around 2.75%.

This means that a few components of the headline CPI have been dragging the CPI lower ( mostly energy and computers ) when the real underlying rate of inflation in the economy is close to 3% officially. ( which in my opinion is way below reality ) .

Stocks wil correct and a S&P around 1000 would give a good reason to the TULIP maniacs to bring it back to new highs before the real collapse occurs ( most likely between october 1998 and spring 1999 ) .A steep fall in stock prices could happen earlier only if the FED hiked rates agressively ( say 0 .5% before end of summer ) or if ASIA came back with a vengeance.

Commodities are difficult to judge as demand rules the game.However I think we are starting to see the effect of the huge rise in money supply and debt issuance and people are more and more wary of getting paid with those dollars which are so lavishly distributed around the world by the IMF.

Gold by itself is still in the process of being short squeezed by the BIS and the JAPANESE to bring AMERICA to its knees when the carry trades ( $/YEN and $/GOLD ) are unwound.The US dollar is the sell of the century however Iwould not blame anyone who hesitates to sell the currency of a country who dominates the world politically, economically , technologically and a lot of other callies.

14,000 major distribution centers

6,000 generation facitilties

100 major computers to coordinate distribution of power through the grid

4 sub grids

1 ccontinental center for inter-grid distribution

---------

No centralized or coordinating plan or agency

No accountability

No information sharing ( legal problems forcing companies to hide information from each other )

No leadership

========================================== NO POWER, folks.

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/apr29_trizec.html

it is called divergence - which one do you think is really undervalued and which one is overvalued!

Lets take a look at ECO IF WE DARE

THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31:
Revenue $52,855,000
Net loss $ ( 7,626,000 )
Net loss attributable to
common shareholders $ ( 10,259,000 )
Loss per share $ ( 0.07 )
Weighted average common
shares outstanding 139,370,031

Now they produced 133,165 oz of gold and
2.3 million of silver so the gold equivalent of
the silver is about 2.3 million * 6/300 = 46,000
-- so call it 179,000 of gold.
Now profit = revenue - cost
so....
cost = revenue - profit
but woops profit is a loss so
total cost = 52,855,000 + 10,259,000 = $63,114,000

and total cost per oz of gold produced = 63,114,000/179,000
or 352 $/oz .. pretty bad and this is after sacking
half their employees .. Things may get better after
they sack the rest of the poor devils.

I dedicate this mine to Pyrites pimple-nell .. and I
think he should buy lots and start reaping these benefits
immediately..

Oh time for dinner .. not RICE again

You said: "I wish I was more skilled in options".

Buy S&P100 put leaps Dec 98, strike 100 ( should cost about $450 ) .
( symbol OEX100 ) .
( The strike 100 equates to the index being at 500; right now it's about 530; its based in minis, which is one fifth of the full contract ) .

I bought this type of options through my discount broker last week.

You'll have much more fun when the stock market crashes and you own these type of put options.

Happy trading!

Alberich the Dwarf

Wednesday April 29, 12:04 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

SOURCE: Echo Bay Mines Ltd.

Echo Bay Reports First Quarter Results

ENGLEWOOD, Colo., April 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The following are the highlights for the Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( Amex and
TSE: ECO - news news ) first quarter earnings:

Echo Bay Mines

Earnings Summary

U.S. dollars 1998 1997

THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31:

Revenue $52,855,000 $73,838,000
Net loss $ ( 7,626,000 ) $ ( 16,761,000 )
Net loss attributable to
common shareholders $ ( 10,259,000 ) $ ( 16,876,000 )
Loss per share $ ( 0.07 ) $ ( 0.12 )
Weighted average common
shares outstanding 139,370,031 139,357,083



Echo Bay Mines Ltd. today reported a net loss of $7.6 million ( $0.07 per share ) in the first quarter, compared with a net loss
of $16.8 million ( $0.12 per share ) a year ago.

The 1998 loss per share includes $2.6 million ( $0.02 per share ) of interest on the company's capital securities. A year ago, the
interest was negligible; the securities were issued in the last week of March 1997.

The smaller loss reflects sharply reduced costs and improved operating results. With gold prices hovering near 18-year lows,
the company has cut expenses, reduced capital expenditures, restructured operations, refocused exploration and development
programs, eliminated marginal projects, deferred construction of two new gold mines, temporarily suspended operations at its
highest-cost mine, scaled back operations at another mine, downsized the corporate office and reduced the total workforce to
about 1300 people from 2300 a year ago.

Cash operating costs were reduced to $208 per ounce of gold produced in the quarter from $255 per ounce a year ago. In
total, cash operating costs were trimmed to $33.3 million, down 35% from $51.5 million a year ago.

In addition, depreciation and amortization expenses were reduced to $13.9 million in the quarter down 31% from $20.0
million a year ago; exploration and development expenses totaled $3.2 million down 51% from $6.5 million; and general &
administrative expenses were $2.3 million down 32% from $3.4 million.

The sizable reduction in costs more than offset lower production and reduced revenues caused by the company's temporary
suspension of operations at the Lupin mine in the Northwest territories. A year ago Lupin had produced 36,602 ounces of gold
in the first quarter.

Quarterly production was higher at Round Mountain in Nevada, the company's largest and lowest-cost mine, reflecting startup
of a new mill late last year and lower at McCoy/Cove in Nevada and Kettle River in Washington State due to the planned
processing of lower-grade ores.

The company produced a total of 133,165 ounces of gold and 2.3 million ounces of silver in the first quarter. Echo Bay
expects to meet or exceed its full-year production targets of 500-520,000 ounces of gold and 7-8 million ounces of silver.

Gold and Silver Hedging Gives Higher Realized Prices

The price of gold on world markets fell by $58 per ounce to an average of $294 in the first quarter from $352 a year ago.
Echo Bay's hedging program overcame most of the price erosion, obtaining a premium of $47 per ounce above the $294
average price of gold on world markets, or a total of $341 per ounce.

The company has protected itself against continued low gold prices by hedging its entire planned gold production for the
remaining three quarters of 1998 at a minimum average price of $341 per ounce. The company will receive more than $341 if
the gold price rises above $310 per ounce, because Echo Bay's hedge position includes 195,000 ounces of put options at $310
per ounce for the remaining three quarters of the year. In that case, the company would simply sell its gold production at the
higher spot prices instead of exercising its right to deliver the gold under the put options.

For 1999, the company has hedged approximately 330,000 ounces of gold at a minimum average price of $363 per ounce.

In addition, Echo Bay has hedged 4.9 million ounces of silver at an average price of $5.60 per ounce for the remaining three
quarters of 1998. For 1999, the company has hedged 4.0 million ounces of silver at an average price of $5.77 per ounce.

Unusually High Silver Prices

Echo Bay's McCoy/Cove mine in Nevada is primarily a gold mine, but it also produces so much silver as a co-product that
McCoy/Cove is one of the largest silver mines in the world. During the quarter, Echo Bay took advantage of unusually high
silver prices by selling forward an additional 19 million ounces of McCoy/Cove's silver for delivery in the years 1998-2001 at
an average price of $6.01 per ounce. Over the past 10 years, silver prices have averaged $4.85 per ounce.

These forward sales of silver, combined with the company's gold forward position, will provide sufficient revenue to pay for
all of the planned future cost of remediating the Cove pit wall instability. This guarantees the profitability of mining 406,000
ounces of contained gold and 22 million ounces of contained silver located at the bottom of the pit beneath the pit wall
instability, based on year-end 1997 ore reserves, current operating costs, and all anticipated future costs. Remediation work
was interrupted in late 1997 when gold prices neared 18-year lows. The work is now expected to resume this summer.

Cash and Debt

In January 1998, Echo Bay took advantage of low gold prices by repurchasing 250,000 ounces of gold forward sales and
eliminating 225,000 ounces of contingent gold forwards realizing $9 million in cash. Gold was then trading at $292 per ounce,
a price significantly lower than the average contractual price of $383 per ounce for the hedge positions that were closed out.
The company has no current plans to close out any more of its hedge positions.

The company repaid $4 million of debt during the quarter reducing its total debt to $64 million. At March 31 Echo Bay's
current debt was $16 million and its long-term debt was $48 million. Long-term debt includes the present value $4 million of
the company's capital securities principal amount in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. The
present value of the future interest payments on the capital securities $101 million is a separate component of shareholders'
equity.

In March, the company elected to exercise its right to defer the April 1, 1998 cash interest payment to holders of the capital
securities. Under the terms of the securities, issued in March 1997, the company has the right to defer interest payments for up
to 10 consecutive semiannual periods. During the deferral period, interest on the securities will accrue at the rate of 12% per
annum, compounded semiannually.

Interest accrued during the deferral period will be paid in cash to the capital securities holders at the end of the deferral
period. At its discretion, the company may satisfy its deferred interest obligation by delivering common shares to a trustee for
sale, the proceeds of which would be used to pay the deferred interest to the securities holders. The company has no current
plans to deliver shares to the trustee for sale.

At March 31, the company had $6 million in cash and cash equivalents, $6 million in short-term investments, and $26 million
in then-exercisable credit facilities determined by certain covenants of the facilities based on the prior quarter's average gold
price. Depressed gold prices limit the company's ability to borrow under its revolving credit facility, which is measured at the
end of each quarter. Continuation of gold prices at depressed levels could have the effect of reducing or eliminating the
company's capacity to borrow under its existing credit facilities. For this reason, as previously reported, the company and its
lenders are in discussions aimed at restructuring the terms of its credit facilities to provide more flexibility than is currently
available in the event of a continued period of depressed gold prices.

Round Mountain, Nevada: Production Up, Costs Down

At 50%-owned Round Mountain in Nevada, Echo Bay's portion of gold production totaled 66,067 ounces, up 18% from
56,161 ounces in 1997. The increase in production resulted principally from the successful startup of a new mill late last year
to process large quantities of nonoxide ore. The mill produced 24,478 ounces of gold in the first quarter ( Echo Bay's 50%
share, 12,239 ounces ) . During the first quarter, Round Mountain also produced the first ounces of gold from a new dedicated
heap leach pad, supplementing production from the existing dedicated pad.

Round Mountain's cash operating costs were reduced to $194 per ounce of gold produced, down from $210 a year ago,
reflecting the lower costs of a new mining plan adopted late last year. The new plan optimizes the design of the open pit,
eliminating the mining of more than 250 million tons of waste rock and low-grade, high-cost material over the life of the
mine. The smaller pit means less pre-stripping expense, less capital for new equipment and less reclamation expense. This
increases profitability and cash flow significantly over the life of the mine.

The favorable first quarter results are expected to enable Round Mountain to meet or do better than its full-year production
and cost targets of 460- 480,000 ounces of gold ( Echo Bay's 50% share, 230-240,000 ounces ) at a cash operating cost of
$230-240 per ounce of gold produced.

McCoy/Cove, Nevada: Significantly Reduced Costs

At McCoy/Cove in Nevada production of both gold and silver was lower reflecting the planned processing of lower-grade
ores. Gold production totaled 39,853 ounces down 24% from 52,286 ounces a year ago and silver production totaled
2,258,456 ounces down 7% from 2,437,413 ounces in the year- ago quarter.

Cash operating costs were reduced sharply, to $203 per ounce of gold produced in the first quarter of this year from $285 per
ounce in the year-ago period. Of the $82 reduction in cost per ounce of gold produced, $34 resulted from a series of operating
improvements. The 450-person workforce was downsized by more than 20%. Mining was discontinued in the smaller McCoy
pit in December 1997, pending completion of optimization studies aimed at reducing costs. Based on a reengineered McCoy pit
design, mining then resumed in March 1998 at a lower cost. Mining activities were refocused on mill ounces from the Cove
pit. Milling costs were significantly reduced. Remediation work on the Cove pit was postponed until the second half of 1998.

In addition, a $47.0 million write-down of McCoy/Cove's carrying value in the third quarter of 1997 reduced deferred mining
costs by a like amount over the remaining life of the mine, resulting in a reduction of $40 per ounce in McCoy/Cove's cash
operating cost in the first quarter of 1998.

Finally, cash operating costs increased by $38 per ounce due to lower ore grades and recoveries. This was more than offset by
a decrease of $46 per ounce due to significantly lower gold prices relative to co-product silver prices, which reduced the
gold-to-silver price equivalency ratio to 47.3:1 in 1998 from 71.2:1 in 1997. The price equivalency ratio is used to calculate
co-product costs under co-product accounting principles.

McCoy/Cove expects to meet or better its 1998 cash operating cost target of $260-270 per ounce of gold produced. The mine's
production targets for 1998 are 160-170,000 ounces of gold and 7-8 million ounces of silver.

Kettle River, Washington: Lower-Grade Ore Processed

The Kettle River mine in Washington State produced 27,245 ounces of gold, down 29% from 38,279 ounces a year ago,
reflecting the processing of lower- grade ores as planned. Recovery rates were also lower, principally a function of the lower
grades. Kettle River processed increased tonnages of ore, helping to partly offset the lower ore grades.

As expected, costs rose per ounce of gold produced, reflecting the lower grades and increased tonnages processed. Cash
operating costs increased to $258 per ounce from $185 a year ago.

First quarter results were in line with Kettle River's full-year production and cost targets of 100-110,000 ounces of gold at a
cash operating cost of $240-250 per ounce.

Lupin, Northwest Territories: Operations Temporarily Suspended

Operations were temporarily suspended at Lupin in the Northwest Territories in January in response to 18-year lows in the
gold price and impending increases in production costs, as reported. The mine was placed on ``care and maintenance'' to
preserve its integrity and enable it to reopen when gold prices permit. The company is examining a number of opportunities
for reducing costs by optimizing Lupin's mining methods and operating procedures.

A year ago, Lupin produced 36,602 ounces of gold in the first quarter at a cash operating cost of $325 per ounce.

Do you use Drooy Sauce on your rice?

Allen - It is no use getting on a commercial airline flight with a parachute. If the plane goes down, your parachute is almost certainly useless.

In the event of societal collapse, spare food will not help, unless one lives in a military compound in the wilderness.

Are you suggesting some sort of in-between scenario, in which there are extreme shortages, without widespread civil unrest?

In our home we do have several hundred pounds or so of wheat, a wheat grinder, a well-stocked pantry, and we will soon restock our H2O. The wheat was stored 18 years ago ( in sealed buckets - old 5-gal sheetrock compound buckets are perfect if they still seal ) and we still use it. Perhaps, someday, a few kruggerands. But no weapons.

IMHO, we may be able to keep ourselves alive with a few of our neighbors until the gangs find us.

But you are correct - we have all placed great confidence in a fragile supply system upon which we are totally dependent.

A bit at a time, we are living in a toned-down Brave New World.

Except for relocating way out in country, what can one do?

Lots of Y2K in the news today, as well.

If anybody makes some money with S&P puts during a real crash , he should hurry to withdraw it from his broker account and turn it into GOLD coins or at least hard assets.

It is very likely that during a real crash a lot of individuals and financial institutions would be bankrupted in spite of the huge injection of liquidities that the FED would engineer.Money , in the unlikely event of being recovered would certainly loose buying power which is paradoxal as we would have a severe recession

^^^
|||

lets start a fight ..

But before that .. for chas ..
the platinum/palladium thing is
very interesting .. I have always
assumed that for autocatalysts pl
and pa are more or less interchangeable
with pl a bit better all round . I
had thought that pallad use had grown
mainly because of its lower price and that it
was high now but would fall back
after a while as the automakers
reformulated catalysts to substitute
more platinum and reduce palladium.
I had assumed that pl could replace pa
on something like a 3:2 ratio ...
just a guess. But there should be
some rational way to approximate
that ratio more properly.

My how opinion here changes! Gold sinks for a few days and many say another collapse is imminent. Gold rallies for a few days and the extreme bulls start to talk about wild upside numbers. I remain in the moderate bull camp. $350 this year, $400+ in 1999.

One problem gold mutual funds share with their non-gold brethren is that many of them are underperforming the indexes. Both Fidelity gold funds fall into this category as do many others. Perhaps some enterprising mutual fund family will offer gold index funds one of these days.

The only gold index fund extent today is Rydex Precious Metals which mimics the XAU. I for one would like to also see gold funds that mimic the Toronto, Australian, and JSE gold indexes.

Comments?

for Tolerant1.
How about Drooy Chop Suey.

I don't think gold can/could go above 325 without something big happening

I think you are right about packing and interstial capabilities. I am hard on some references and will report as they come in. From a rough look, it is possible that magnesium may apply to some extent. Quite a diff in cost!!. Thanx, Chas

A plan is born.

I care about FDYMF -- I have as many shares of it as RYO. Do you have any good news about them?

What could we possibly fight about YOU agreed with ME that Mandela looked better than mohamed ali - we agree that rangy is WAY undervalued - we possibly agree that california isn't as nice a place as it use to be!!
I do feel so much better swapping ryo for rangy - Don;t get me wrong - I still like ryo technically but why REALLY gamble when there are rangy's out there lol

I like them all because they have fantastic graphs/stochastics/RSI/Bollinger bands/moving averages - but the problem is the uncertainty of what will become of them - NASDAQ's ruling that stocks under $1.00 will be delisted - reverse splits are almost death and delisting and being on the Pink Sheets is not good ( except for VOLVO )

about magnesium .. the LAST thing
we want is a substitute .. Also
I think magnesium would burst into
flames under your gas tank which
could reduce your mileage as well as
your lifespan.

for RJ
Hey how about sending some clients
MY way ??? or even to my brother
Russell .. if they can find the
bugger

I'll fight ya-BUT-first I must raise a toast to the yellow medal. Make that several toasts. I might even do a vodka or two if a run to $318 on spot arrives in the next 4-5 trading days.

Hell, forget the fight, I'm drinking anyway. BTW thanks for your posts in February on RSA mining stocks.

Tom

about magnesium .. the LAST thing
we want is a substitute .. Also
I think magnesium would burst into
flames under your gas tank which
could reduce your mileage as well as
your lifespan.

for RJ
Hey how about sending some clients
MY way ??? or even to my brother
Russell .. if they can find the
bugger

Mandela looks like a deflated California Raisin. Notice one has been missing from the commercials lately...

Bad hands and brain. Tom

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/titanic/tregs.html

I guess so for auto exhaust. I was thinking in terms of cold stuff. We don't need to be wearing asbestos flame retardants. Cheers

I just want to clarify my strategy for buying/selling using the short term indicators. As the individual indicators weaken, I will sell a portion of my gold shares. I reduced my holdings by 10% yesterday. When the Summation Index turns back up, I will buy the 10% back, but usually in a different stock. You can do this using a discount broker for low costs. I have a large portion of my partnership in PM's and must be prudent.

OROP - ING - keep your eyes on these two...in a quick run they will do nicely - OROP is a STEAL AT THE PRICES.

IMHO North Am. gold stks will be 1st bot by majority of U.S. investors if and when gold has a big day. It won't matter much what gold or silver stk it is because the avg. guy hasn't been following gold, just bring up the subject at work and see how few know anything regards gold. I imagine ECO is doing well recently due to improvements by management and an awareness of this by gold stk investors. I'm still learning about S.A. gold stks. Years ago I remember E. Janeway saying to buy them for their dividends, something nobody as far as I know has yet to mention here.

Rollin' in one more keg of powder into Drooy, Hgmcy and Rangy....in hopes it doesn't flash. Cover your ears....

For lakeside ..
rangy really Has to be better than
RYO .. It has to be .. did you read
my hachet job on ECO ?? Are RYO
results around here anywhere ??

Has the move today closed or gone above the gap that created the island reversal a few days ago?

yes it has - but now there is an up gap at 88 1/2 - and still the down gap at 93

http://sec.yahoo.com/e/980415/ryo.html

Hey Rube
The main reason that nobody mentions
their dividends here is that they
dont PAY ANY and havn't since 1996!!
Since their losses are roughly 20%
of their revenue I think maybe they
should consider going into some other
business.

( wow he ain't calling me LAKESIDE any more!!lol ) yes it feels so good to be out of RYO - a speculum was needed for this one - I mean it is a real speculation - so many problems - I was lucky to get in at 5/8 on that nonsense day - ( that was the last time I was here before yesterday ) -

xau - the move up today from 84 was clean - no gaps - just the gap at 88 1/2 - I hope it fills before the one at 93 is filled - the xau is really good about filling gaps -

dividends on RSAA stocks - I only got a "option sale" dividend on my drooy - and the bank of new york wasn;t kosher about the money it got for that sale - someone got half of that money!!

... with current management it could be next year.

As soon as I see report I will post URL. I am afraid you will have to visit bathroom second time.

On my charts ( weekly bar with 40 week MA ) , Gold has come back to touch its 200 day MA and turned right back up again. This one's important. Let's see if we can beat the recent spot month high.

Rube ..
I saw the word DIVIDEND on the same
page as ECO and went temporarily nuts..
Im better now..

As much as I admire John Disney ( aka "The Mousester ) for his notable talents in analyzing producer costs on gold reserves and a litany of other stats pertaining to the gold industry, I must once again ask the salient question, "Why does this brilliant analyst continue to shoot himself in the foot with incessant attacks upon N.A. producers?"

Again, he would be wise to emulate the indexing tactics of mutual index funds back in the Early Nineties. At that time, when hardly anybody had a good thing to say about general industrial equities, index funds made an art of ignoring all bad news, transforming negative info into positives, and highlighting only on the positives about stocks. In that manner, the shaky, incipient equities bull managed to develop strong legs and become the soaring behemoth it is today.

However, by continually shouting out the negatives of various "shaky"
N.A. gold producers, he succeeds in doing the following:

1 ) He provides ammunition to anti-gold Wall Street analysts who can point to various well known gold producers ( such as ECO ) and say, "See, I told you they're all a pile of crap."

2 ) He enhances divisions amongst goldbugs, splitting them into warring
factions ( N.A.versus RSA ) . Each camp highlights the negatives of the other camp until both camps are drowning in a sea of negatives. If Disney's RSA camp ultimately wins, then surely it will be a Pyrrhic Victory at best as the avalanche of negatives about global golds turn off the non-goldbug investor.

3 ) He wastes his enormous analytical talent in the art of denigration rather than the art of extolment. What a bonfire of excitement this man could light under the N.A. golds if he practised the latter art...and surely the general investor success with N.A. golds would create a positive spillover effect for his treasured RSA golds!

Essentially, I do not believe an RSA gold rally is sustainable in the absence of an N.A. gold rally...certainly not amongst N.A. investors anyway.

Ultimately, Disney will be Disney...he is proud of his RSA golds as well he should be but he really should consider an index approach in his evaluations of all golds.

Thanks.

F*

for lake .... ( fill in the blank ) .
Yes .. a BIG problem with ADR is
that when a shareholder gets options, they
cant be issued in the USA but rather AUCTIONED
by the bank that issues the ADRs . IF
it makes you fill better, I BID on those
Drooy options ( one guy has to make the
whole issue so it is a lot of dough ) .
at 20 % of their value .. The guy that
got them bid about half value. He then
jobbed them all off . Had he held them, they
would now be worth 3 times what they were then
market value basis so he would have
made well over a million bucks on that one
deal.

the problem with RYO is that it has so much other stuff you had to bet on - that were not related to the price of gold - ( like a normal ?? gold stock ) - I didn't like that witte had sold half of her shares before the "running out of fund" fiasco and all the non gold mining related loses - the lost so much money on currency speculation - why?? because they tried to make money speculating on currency rather than gold mining - and the OUTRAGEOUS salary witte makes - WOW is all I can say - and now because of all the precious money lost - they have to give loan shark rates to a company to bail them out - but I love the graph it correlates real well to rangy - ( drooy correlates with hgmcy - which did a great print today ) -and the moving averages crossed today - the first time in a positive direction in YEARS - but the company's fundamentals really stink!!

I have always like South Africa especially since my first "grape workers" rally - oh that is a different social cause! lol

How do you pull up the volumn waiting on the ask side for Rangy ?
I'm thinking about taking the plunge.
Thanks!

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

for Farfel
I gotta callem the way I seem em, Bluto..
without fear, favour, or self interest. If I can
find a good NA mine, you'll be the first to know.
Would YOU recommned ECO to even your worst
enemy ??

MR Disney - I wanted my options and they wouldn't give them to me - I was quite angry - YES THEY WERE GIVEN AWAY FOR HALF PRICE - someone owes me money - !! lol where does that guy live in SA? and I know why you don't like NA gold companies - cause we have REAL HISTORY With our gold rushes ( NA gold miners work a full 8 hours - not having to spend 5 hours getting to the rock face!! lol )

...before I ever recommended YAHOO ( trading at p/e of 400 or so ) .

Thanks.

F*

the current rangy quote is 1 15/32 - 1 1/2 with 1000 shares/bid x 5000 shares /ask - but it is a complete fraud - nasdaq market makers don't have to show you their inventory - plunge in - it is currently priced less than the shares of drooy and hgmcy it owns ( or pretty close ) getting all the assets for free!! ask John Disney for specifics and this URL is good to justify purchasing

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

and these are the closest and flatest bollinger bands in history

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=rangy

compare to what happened to clpzf and calvf and drooy and hgmcy when the bollinger bands come together

To the best of my knowledge back in the late 70's and early 80's none of the N.A. golds paid a dividend anywhere near the SA.gold stks. Sorry about putting ECO and dividend in same post. Janeway used to tell us to sell the SA. gold stk after div payment and buy another with a div about to be paid. I hope we get back to those days but I doubt it.

To the best of my knowledge back in the late 70's and early 80's none of the N.A. golds paid a dividend anywhere near the SA.gold stks. Sorry about putting ECO and dividend in same post. Janeway used to tell us to sell the SA. gold stk after div payment and buy another with a div about to be paid. I hope we get back to those days but I doubt it.

To the best of my knowledge back in the late 70's and early 80's none of the N.A. golds paid a dividend anywhere near the SA.gold stks. Sorry about putting ECO and dividend in same post. Janeway used to tell us to sell the SA. gold stk after div payment and buy another with a div about to be paid. I hope we get back to those days but I doubt it.

To the best of my knowledge back in the late 70's and early 80's none of the N.A. golds paid a dividend anywhere near the SA.gold stks. Sorry about putting ECO and dividend in same post. Janeway used to tell us to sell the SA. gold stk after div payment and buy another with a div about to be paid. I hope we get back to those days but I doubt it.

To the best of my knowledge back in the late 70's and early 80's none of the N.A. golds paid a dividend anywhere near the SA.gold stks. Sorry about putting ECO and dividend in same post. Janeway used to tell us to sell the SA. gold stk after div payment and buy another with a div about to be paid. I hope we get back to those days but I doubt it.

the current rangy quote is 1 15/32 - 1 1/2 with 1000 shares/bid x 5000 shares /ask - but it is a complete fraud - nasdaq market makers don't have to show you their inventory - plunge in - it is currently priced less than the shares of drooy and hgmcy it owns ( or pretty close ) getting all the assets for free!! ask John Disney for specifics and this URL is good to justify purchasing

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

and these are the closest and flatest bollinger bands in history

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=rangy

compare to what happened to clpzf and calvf and drooy and hgmcy when the bollinger bands come together

the current rangy quote is 1 15/32 - 1 1/2 with 1000 shares/bid x 5000 shares /ask - but it is a complete fraud - nasdaq market makers don't have to show you their inventory - plunge in - it is currently priced less than the shares of drooy and hgmcy it owns ( or pretty close ) getting all the assets for free!! ask John Disney for specifics and this URL is good to justify purchasing

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

and these are the closest and flatest bollinger bands in history

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=rangy

compare to what happened to clpzf and calvf and drooy and hgmcy when the bollinger bands come together

the current rangy quote is 1 15/32 - 1 1/2 with 1000 shares/bid x 5000 shares /ask - but it is a complete fraud - nasdaq market makers don't have to show you their inventory - plunge in - it is currently priced less than the shares of drooy and hgmcy it owns ( or pretty close ) getting all the assets for free!! ask John Disney for specifics and this URL is good to justify purchasing

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

and these are the closest and flatest bollinger bands in history

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=rangy

compare to what happened to clpzf and calvf and drooy and hgmcy when the bollinger bands come together

the current rangy quote is 1 15/32 - 1 1/2 with 1000 shares/bid x 5000 shares /ask - but it is a complete fraud - nasdaq market makers don't have to show you their inventory - plunge in - it is currently priced less than the shares of drooy and hgmcy it owns ( or pretty close ) getting all the assets for free!! ask John Disney for specifics and this URL is good to justify purchasing

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

and these are the closest and flatest bollinger bands in history

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=rangy

compare to what happened to clpzf and calvf and drooy and hgmcy when the bollinger bands come together

for Laketrout
What is that 5 hours getting to the rock
face .. If you speak of my Black brother
wonder workers .. they live in company
housing AT the mine .. ( YOU been watchin
too many 1950 BBC film clips ) .. and at
Harmony these guys mine hard rock like
the Chicago Bulls ( best in the World ) ..
all flying rocks and high fives.
Now to options .. I tell a lie .. as
I recall about a million options were
involved and the market was maybe one
rand each.. I bid 20 cent on the bundle
which was 200,000 rand or about $40,000,
and the bundle went for 50 cent to some
rat. Had he held, the package is now
worth 3 million rand or $600,000 and he
got it for $100,000 about 6 months ago
as I recall. The problem is the US
regulations, and the banks auctioning
stuff off in one fell swoop rather than
distributing it.

for Laketrout
What is that 5 hours getting to the rock
face .. If you speak of my Black brother
wonder workers .. they live in company
housing AT the mine .. ( YOU been watchin
too many 1950 BBC film clips ) .. and at
Harmony these guys mine hard rock like
the Chicago Bulls ( best in the World ) ..
all flying rocks and high fives.
Now to options .. I tell a lie .. as
I recall about a million options were
involved and the market was maybe one
rand each.. I bid 20 cent on the bundle
which was 200,000 rand or about $40,000,
and the bundle went for 50 cent to some
rat. Had he held, the package is now
worth 3 million rand or $600,000 and he
got it for $100,000 about 6 months ago
as I recall. The problem is the US
regulations, and the banks auctioning
stuff off in one fell swoop rather than
distributing it.

this stock did a great job today - it will lead all the gold stocks into the teens?? lol

Just tell HAL you're sorry all-right already! I warned about pi**ing him
off!

HenryD - Go Gold

would it be a bad recommendation for BART/KITCO to switch this to his own IRC Server - It is really easy - $30 is the cost for the professional IRC Server software - there is so much that could be gained for real time chat - you can tell the newbies they pump the "submit your comment" button during outages!!

Today Richmont Mines announced earnings of 6 cents for their March 31, 1998 quarter. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/98029/richmont_m_1.html and they are growing in a solid conservative manner.
Check them out. http://www.richmont-mines.com

Please explain your last comment to Disney, I find zero logic or anything close to morality in it.

Do you know what I mean? I said, do you know what I mean? I just
saw her, standing there, I just saw, with my best friend, do you
know what I mean?

Today Richmont Mines announced earnings of 6 cents for
their March 31, 1998 quarter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980429/richmont_m_1.html and they
are growing in a solid conservative manner.
Check them out. http://www.richmont-mines.com

Indeed, most seeds sold commercially today are hybrids and revert back to a non-producing parent. They say ( hybrid ) in small print on the seed package label.

Seeds sold to farmers are beginning to contain genes from other plants and animals that alter their disease resistant-, ripining-, and taste-characteristics. These seeds are sometimes also resistant to pesticides and herbicides sold by the chemical industry. Increasingly, the chemical companies ARE the seed companies, too. The farmer needs to buy the special seeds AND the special chemicals to grow them. The seed is resistant to the chemicals and the chemicals kill everything but the plant grown from the special seed. Ergo, two revenue streams instead of one. Add fungicides, irradiation and non-organic and the plot thickens. The jury is out on the long term implication of all of the above.

Most self-reliant folks purchase open-pollinated ( non-hybrid ) seeds. These seeds are sometimes called Heirloom, Rare or both. A handfull of small cooperatives and non-profit companies publish catalogs where these seeds can be ordered or shared. I have catalogs from 5 of these companies. Just wish I had more time to garden instead of working.

Rather than charge for access to the Kitco site, isn't there a marketing exec lurking somewhere out there? Surely some trading company, mutual fund, or maybe even Merrill Lynch would pay for an ad on this site. Looking at a small ad every day would be a small price to pay for access to this site!!

for Farfenickle
Yahoo's p/e is a big number.. But it is
POSITIVE .. ECO p/e is a NEGATIVE NUMBER.
They LOSE MONEY BLUTO roughly 20 % of their
revenue .. and they are hedged ... are you
serious ... have some spinach ... with drooy
sauce.

Brother, you're right, awfully quite...
Lets rock-n-roll, trash something or somebody, whatever...
Are there anybody around here whom you do not like or
who does not like you...or even worse...who called you bad
names? Just say a word...

By the way, I smell something positive about gold in the
stinking air of Wall Street, and will be vodkadrinking and
pickleeating tonight in order to produce AU test results
probably tomorrow... Your brother Oris.

IRC and web chats are different media. IRC is fast and furious... leading to posts of one-liners, with relatively little thought applied to them. Web chats ( e.g. Kitco ) are slower, and naturally allow the poster to compose his/hers thoughts before posting. You will therefore tend to get a more studied, detailed post on web chats, with some posters contributing a lot of research. The 'logs' on Kitco web chat are also accessible to all for a longer time period. On IRC, there is usually no public log for people to peruse. An IRC gold chat would therefore be complementary in nature to the web chat. For IRC channels to remain 'live' requires a certain level of participation ( we have possibly achieved that on Kitco during peak times ) , but there are many channels that are effectively dead in the water because of not reaching critical throughput. May I suggest trying a channel on one of the well-known networks? Undernet hosts the #daytraders stock channel and others, so might deserve a bit of contrarian competition. Dalnet is quite good and has channel protection facilities. EFnet is well-known but notorious for trouble and net splits. With a well-known public network comes the opportunity for browsers to come along and be educated in the ways of the gold market. Running a #gold channel effectively also requires some preparation in setting up channel operators and/or bots, which require 24 hour attention to defend the channel against marauders and pirates. How about it, Lakefoil?

It was a very interesting way to spend the trading day here! I'm off to watch my 1950's BBC movies of drilling gold down in ol SA -

THe next few days should be very exciting - this next upswing should be very nice!!

Bye for now

Lakefoil

Mike Stewart: I think I speak for many when I say that we all appreciate your rational, logical and measured approach to investing in gold equities.

I hope that I did not mislead you with my post about what I thought you were doing. I do not believe that I said you were selling some of your holdings, only that you were thinking about doing that.

I probably should have sold some of my holdings closer to our little peak of a few days ago, since I knew very well that a general equities 'ping' would knock down the gold equities, even before we know about the rumor of AG planning to raise rates. I would have bought more at our mini-bottom yesterday, but since I felt uneasy with the degree of exposure I had, I did not. The classic problem of being 'overinvested' even though I am 50% cash.

I bought some sp-500 calls this morning ( funny money only ) on the guess that the sp-500 is heading up for a month or so. Any opinions about the general equities markets? Just did very well with some Hewlett - Packard calls sold on Monday-- getting a little better at the short term options trading. It has been a humbling experience over the last year or so.

Honey just received "Cherokee Trail of Tears" and a bunch of other rare and endangered beans. I'll get flamed, but I have to say that they rival and surpass the beauty and rarity of gold.

It will help many who hold NA and SA stocks to make some more objective decisions. We, in NA, have very little access to SA info on SA stocks and are hesitant in commiting additional funds in SA without some more earnings info.

Many in this forum will greatly appreciate your effort. Reserves are important, and most of us understand that SA mines have larger reserves
than NA mines, but we are little informed on production costs in US dollars.

Thanks, and I realize that I am asking a lot ( we ? ) , but again, no need to rush,
whenever your time allows.

Tom

I have extra servers and I have a IRC server software license - I understand what you are saying about the thoughtful posts - they are like reading a classic insiders magazine -truely amazing insight indeed - I would love a gold/gold stock traders chat room like #daytraders is for gold -
I have been very lucky buying and selling natural resource stocks because of the insight in this room - this place should be kept for the posts you say - that is why I really have only been here during major transision times for me - Like getting out of RYO and into RANGY - I have wanted to do it for a while and NEEDED the mental support to push me into the trade - Just like I needed when I bought RYO at 5/8 - I was here - I do not have the "insight that most have here to post - I just read them and ponder - sometimes reading a weeks worth at a time ( 4-5 hours ) -

Wednesday April 29, 3:19 pm Eastern Time

Central banks the losers in gold hedging - miners

By Patrick Chalmers

ZURICH, April 29 ( Reuters ) - Hedging by gold miners against future price falls has severely
damaged the prospects for a recovery in gold shares and cost central banks many billions in lost
value of their bullion reserves, miners said on Wednesday.

But while delegates at a two-day industry conference agreed central banks had been the big losers in
the hedging process, they disagreed on what miners' price protection tactics had done for the
industry itself.

``This industry must think very hard about what it's doing,'' Newmont Mining Corp ( NEM - news )
Executive Vice President Wayne Murdy said in a speech.

``The hedging book is part of what's killing shareholder value in this industry,'' said Murdy, whose
Denver-based company announced on Monday it was on track to produce between 3.8 million and
4.0 million ounces of gold in 1998.

During the last decade, gold miners have increasingly sought to limit the effects of falling gold prices
by selling forward future production, using loaned gold from central banks to set up their positions.

While Murdy accepted the need occasionally to hedge individual projects, he said it should not
become a company's core strategy.

``It seems inconsistent to us to sell gold forward at the same time as prompting people to invest in
your stock,'' he said, adding that gold was the only commodity where forward sales did not need a
counter-party with opposite views on price.

Murdy estimated banks had lost up to $150 billion over the few years in the value of their bullion
reserves by aiding a process that pushed gold prices lower. Bank revenues from gold-leasing were
minimal in comparison, he said later.

Rex McLennan, Senior Vice-President of Placer Dome Inc ( PDG.TO - news ) , defended hedging,
saying his company ran a hedge book, currently worth $550 million, in order to protect shareholders
from the downside risk in the gold price.

He denied that such tactics damaged the mining industry, identifying the losers as central banks
holding gold.

``Hedging for the industry as a whole is a zero-sum game. Hedging in its own right creates no value.
What hedging does is to reallocate value and most of the value reallocated in the last few years has
been from the central banks,'' he said.

``Probably something ( more than ) $100 billion has moved from central banks primarily to
speculators and also to the companies who have sold gold forward.''

McLennan said in reply to a question that it would not make sense for his company to close out its
hedge book completely and give the cash to shareholders, as this would result in significant tax
losses.

Normandy Group ( NDY.AX ) Executive Chairman Robert Champion de Crespigny, leaving aside
the pros and cons of hedging itself, said it was unlikely that much additional hedging would occur out
of Australia in the near term.

``I think we'll see very little further hedging going on for Australia as the gold price moves forward,''
he said.

``Generally speaking, the Australian industry is very fully hedged and we won't see it doing much
more.''

One of the factors behind gold's rally from January's 18-year trough below $280 an ounce has been
mining companies buying back some of their hedge positions.

But while gold has risen through $300 and higher, the market has been consistently wary about when
miners might come in with fresh forward sales, which could cap further rallies.

The Eurocrats seem to be indicating a 30% gold reserve for the

new currency ( EMU? ) but if so how many ounces does that translate

into?

What are the member bank gold inventories?

What is the estimated money supply for the EMU?

What percent of the money supply will be the reserve?

Does any nation have 100% foreign currency/gold reserve

to equal total money supply? ( all are fractional reserves )

30% gold RESERVES is not the same as 30% gold BACKING

Does this matter to anyone?

Picked up a few Richmont shares a couple of weeks ago. Looking pretty good today. Thanx for the post.

Good job, Bartaramaman! Now don't forget how testy and sensitive HAL can get in the future. A little TLC will keep those electrons and photons flowing smoothly. Er... are all of your people accounted for?

HenryD - Go Gold ( a little bit faster now. )

What do you plan to do with your share of the Swiss reparations windfall ? I think Oris should use his to go fishing for Ziva. With the Givatron. I think I will use mine to invest in Givatron.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 29
-- TOTALS
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,419,754 - 746,935 troy ounces
Copper 108,475 - 71 short tons


maybe the comex gold warehouses are closed for lack of interest!

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980429.btl.new.world.info.order.html

Lord of the flies! Help us discern the true cost in US dollars of SA BS! Pretty please? When you have the time! Sheeeesh! What ELSE has that old fart got but time living off the fat of the land in the Cape with his $100/month live-in-maid! Man, big move in RANGY and DROOY
today! NOT!! I'll refrain from further ad hominem attacks so the old fart doesn't have a heart attack! By the way Diz my dog has just relieved himself on your last post to old Pyrites--you know, the one who looks like Mandela and Ali. Surely you can think up some better personal invectives than THAT! I'll save my drool for your live-in-maid!

Hmmmm. How are your illusions holding up lately ?

Somebody posted about Hillary Indictment. Any news yet as to whom Hillary will indict ?

Interesting that POG was strong today despite this cautionary news from Reuter's today:



In fundamental news, NM Rothschild & Sons Director Robert Guy said on Wednesday that the European Central Bank ( ECB )
is unlikely to hold more than 20 percent of its reserves in gold,

``I think that's probably too optimistic. Most people are over-reaching themselves slightly on that front,'' Guy told a gold
mining industry conference in Zurich.

He said he disagreed with sentiment among bullion dealers that had edged up in recent months to a consensus that there would
be gold would make up more than 20 percent of the nearly 50 billion Ecus of ECB reserves.

To compile that SA data it takes time indeed.
John doesn't have to do it. If he does I will
be thankful as others who are interested.

I think my request was reasonable and you do
not need to be cynical towards me, or him, or
any other person who holds some SA stocks.

Re your request for a food fight.....

NA rules, RSA sucks, and Rands are alloyed with pot metal.... Soon the U.S. will have a .9999 pure Gold coin to compete with the Maples and VP's and then Rands will REALLY sink to the deserved melting pot of history! ( Not to mention that the St. Gaudens design of the Eagles is so incredibly superior to the lowly Rand...... )

P.S. I skipped the old "Saturday Night Live" description of the Rand....out of respect for my fellow humanity...maybe someone bolder than I will repeat it!

http://www.year2000.com/y2kgamble.html

Also, we should let President Bill Clinton stay in office until 2003 to eliminate the overhead of holding a presidential election. That will free up resources to get this Y2K problem solved.

A modest proposal.

An excellent reply!

I have it on good authority from a friend of a friend of a friend who travels to Europe frequently on business...in the upper echelon of big money business circles...that the EU currency backing ( by Gold ) will end up at 15%.... I don't necessarily endorse this view, but this IS, the same guy who told me to buy KTEL ( Nasdaq listed ) at $8.00 a month ago...before it promptly increased 500% in a period of days!!! ( Unfortunately, I only purchased 400 shares....damn! )

I am unsure of the reports regarding the First Bunt Cake.

office after his term, it,Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
it sucks.

Regarding hybrid seeds, there is an article posted on The Winds web site dealing with seed sterilization entitled "New Technology 'Terminates' Food Independence". You might be interested.

The Winds site is located at: http://www.thewinds.org


The Hermit

"Given the unpredictable and catastrophic nature of these risks, insureds will be required to participate in the underwriting experience. Premiums will vary from 65% to 85% of the purchased limit."

The good news is companies may get some of that premium back if they do not have any trouble. Beforehand they must submit to extensive analysis of their Y2K remediation status. No takers yet, AFAIK.

If the rumor is afoot that EU backing will be down around 10%, it sure did not hurt the AU market today. That would appear to be bullish for gold.

more on Y2K insurance and legal issues at
http://www.year2000.com/archive/audit2.html

Is it just me, or is Kitco moving slower than the price of Gold rises today?

Wednesday April 29, 3:19 pm Eastern Time

Central banks the losers in gold hedging - miners

By Patrick Chalmers

ZURICH, April 29 ( Reuters ) - Hedging by gold miners against future price falls has severely damaged the prospects for a recovery
in gold shares and cost central banks many billions in lost value of their bullion reserves, miners said on Wednesday.

``It seems inconsistent to us to sell gold forward at the same time as prompting people to invest in your stock,'' he said, adding that gold was the only commodity where forward sales did not need a counter-party with opposite views on price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/markets_go_1.html

A MUST READ RE: MINING SHARES

CNBC next a Gold Fund story!

HighRise

Re: Kitco slowness, I e-mailed Bart that I am having a problem and it seems to work.

NOW - CNBC "Gold come back XAU +26%"

"Gold a good buy"

HighRise

We really miss Donald, and hope you can get your programmer to figure out why he can't log on. He was able to do a test on the Gold Coin discussion group this morning using his normal name and password. ( to the rest of you: No, he's not there now. )

Thanks for the link. I'll get to it this evening, when time permits. Students together, eh? You must be a quick study.

For those wanting a catfight there are two good ones going on at Kitco Classified and Kitco 2 Gold Bars coins, ect. we dont need one here too!!

Not a good iedea to keep the coward erect even till the end of his term much less longer.

CNBC just ran a 'nice' report about gold. Now I am REALLY worried!!{:- ) )

Although the stock price has been acting like that of a dog, I believe this fine producer will announce a profit for the first quarter. The 50% partner at Beaufor reported a slight profit and my inclination is that the higher grade 50% Sleeping Giant will do somewhat better.
Just my gut feeling though.

We can recall that a certain prolific poster called for a major crash in equities this week, with the Nasdaq to be especially hard hit. Here today, is the fulfillment of that prophecy.....

Wednesday April 29, 5:04 pm Eastern Time

Nasdaq climbs higher as rebound continues

NEW YORK, April 28 ( Reuters ) - The Nasdaq Composite Index ran higher on Wednesday, extending Tuesday's rebound as
technology stocks strengthened and the broader stock market put aside fears of an imminent rise in interest rates.

The index finished up an unofficial 19.87 points, or 1.08 percent to 1852, led by gains in Netscape Communications Corp.

You might have your programmer try to figure out why your side
margins keep disappearing EH

With respect to your questions concerning Eurocrats expectations of 30% gold reserve support behind the EURO...

First, you should be aware that these are NOT Eurocrats' expectations...rather they are Wall Street's declared expectation spun as Eurocrat expectations.

Secondly, you should be aware that, for the past two years, Wall Street has been issuing dire warnings that the European Central banks were intent on selling off their entire gold supply, ergo the EURO would have effectively NO gold reserve support by the time of its incarnation in 1999. These warnings were based on a W.S. New Paradigm theory that since gold produces no income to the CB's ( in contrast to Treasury bonds ) , there was absolutely no economic sense to hold gold anymore.

Then, as gold seemed to reach a downward resisitance point of around 280, Wall Street began to concede that the EURO would probably have gold reserve support in the 5%-10% range. Still, The Street contended this level of support was very bearish for gold as it would require European central banks to dump huge amounts of excess gold reserves.

Now, Wall Street analysts are becoming aware of what major American think tanks have warned the U.S. government for the past few years: in order to establish pandemic credibility for the new EURO currency, the EI must
have substantive gold reserve support behind its new currency. With this new awareness, Wall Street analysts are declaring that anything LESS than
30% gold reserve support is bearish for gold ( and in fact, today on CNBC,
a commentator suggested that anything LESS than 50% gold reserve support is bearish for gold ) .

So, you can understand how Wall Street is actively spinning the gold reserve and EURO issue to ensure that, essentially, no matter what announcement is made concerning gold support levels, the Street can effectively declare the announcement a "huge disappointment," thereby ensuring gold will tumble, thus precluding American equities and bond investors from a mad dash into gold.

The good news is that, no matter what level of gold support is announced
and no matter how negative the Wall Street spin, the announcement will eliminate the uncertainty regarding gold's value to the Europeans...will probably place an end to gold market manipulations by the Europeans... and will bring handsome rewards for gold investors who are not "scammed"
into nervously dumping their gold on the basis of inevitable, negative Wall Street agit-prop.

As for your questions regarding the particulars of EURO gold reserve support, there is really much speculation but there will be no concretization provided until the initial announcemnets. However, you might wish to look up yesterday's posts provided by ( I believe? ) Kitco poster SDRer in which the external/internal reserves issues are discussed among other topics. Some inaccuracies but good food for thought. If you are a little more adventurous and want the REAL story, then contact Brookings Institute and they should have piles of public research papers available for you to peruse on the matter. And finally if can find yourself some friends over at the Rand, then you will discern the genuine picture.

Thanks.

F*

You've got a clear head and eagle eye to sort out real warnings from chaff. Berhaps you could digest this bit of news and get back with us. Among all the ra ra stories about EU, EMU and other acronyms was this chilling report. Knowing the trouble and near war our US NATO troops had 15 years ago with just the few Greens, this bodes trouble. To be taken with a grain of salt, considering my perpetual pessemism, but this report signals danger from Germany. IMHO. http://chantry.com/ga/

Mozel, as you perfectly know, I'm done with Ziva
and her Iraqi women. Zivatron worked, Ziva took off
and I'm not in fishing business any more...

However, if you insist, I may be back in fishing business
with MOZELTRON to learn how you can tolerate it...

THE GOLDEN PROPHET ID#372262:

fart

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 ejection seat, coming up.

LGB: Thanks for filling us in on your friend's prediction! We shall know soon. But I do think Farfel is correct in arguing that Wall Street will put a negative spin on whatever level is decided upon.

Believe it or not the market probably will crash at some point. I am inclined to agree with OLD MAN's prediction of a summer top and fall crash. But whatever the timing, stocks will not go down for the count until gold is around $350. As long as stocks and gold go down together and gold remains low -- all stock dips are buying opportunities. But when gold surges towards $350 as stocks and bonds hit the skids -- head for the hills my friend.

Hey, mister, remeber you said no more attacks
on my Brother John. I hope both your dog and you
releaved themselves in your last post...Next time
you want to do it, follow your dog to the bushes, yes?

The Plunge Protection Team isn't a new concept, but yet another mirror of 1929. On Friday, Sept. 25,1929, there was a break in the market, possibly a result of the Bank of England raising rates 1/2 pt. the day before. By the following Monday, no one following the markets had failed to hear the news, described by a W. E. Hutton broker "as though the words had come from some financial Moses as holy writ." The buzz word was: "organized buying support." It resulted from an interview by Arthur Cutten indicating that he and other big operators were ready by "organized buying support" to move prices up if they went dangerously down. The NY Times criticized but no one listened. It became a guarantee of protection for the individual investor. As the broker said ( W. E. Hutton-Miller ) "A few days earlier we feared it was all over. Now everything was okay again".

Sign of a top? It was then.

During subsequent weaknesses, this rumour would resurface and, repeatedly, calmed sellers.

FWIW, STIVX reported holding 1,972 oz of Pd bullion as of 12/31/97. Not recent, but I hope info is of some value.

I am not a computer wizard but it may help those in the group that are if you posted as much as you can remember about what happened, what you were doing just before you started having trouble. Did power fail, did you install new seemingly unrelated software? Did you have hardware installed. Did you turn something on like a virus checker? Give the Kitco computer wizards something to work with. Are you trying to post from a new computer? Wizs: Should Donald try removing any existing Kitco cookies? Maybe delete the whole damn cookie file? Donald you might lose some other passwords but I'll bet you have record of all of 'em somewhere. Just a few ideas...

1. Percentage of Gold in ECB will be 15% - external reserve - on balance of ECB - in addition to reserves of national CBs. I may add also here that despite all fights the first president of ECB will be Duisenberg. We can see if it is right in a couple of days.
2. It is a percentage of reserve, not really backing ( no direct coupling currency to gold in some % )
3. Figures, you asked, can be found at World Gold Council,
http://www.gold.org/Pages/Home1.htm

Gold by itself is still in the process of being short squeezed by the BIS and the JAPANESE to
bring AMERICA to its knees when the carry trades ( $/YEN and $/GOLD ) are
unwound.


What indicates this?

It's not Donald. He was able to successfully post onto the Gold Coin discussion group at Kitco this morning. His Emails are fine. We're puzzled.

Did you change browsers? Did you change any of your brower's options?

I have been retired and away from Germany for 9 years so I am somewht out of date over there, but I wish Helmut Schmidt were younger so he could be drafted back into the government, in the 14 years I spent in Germany of a period of 28 years the only Chancellors they had worth their salt were Adenaur & Schmidt. I don't know much about this Gerhardt fellow. Willi Brandt was a good Mayor for Berlin, but being Chancellor was over his head. Sorta like a couple of our SOUTHERN GOVERNORS EH. Enough said as at the moment I am not read into European politic enough to comment now. I am trying however to go back, wife is trying to transfer in her gummint job to Garmisch, one of the truely beautiful spots on earth. If we get there we may never come back.

Gold backing of the Euro @ 15% would be fine with me if set with the idea of gold at$310-$320. Then, if our friendly CB's manipulate the price to $600 or $900 or $1200 would that benefit the Euro?

The question states the obvious answer. The issue is whether the CB's would do such a thing. I suggest they would do nothing less than this.

I know this is speculation but gold is at it's present level because the CB's manipulated the price down. Why? I again suggest in preparation for the Euro. To accumulate and transfer as needed. What group of CB's hold a huge store of gold? Why? Again, the question is self answering.

Do I expect that this weekend will make gold rocket? No, although several weeks ago I did. My mind was changed by the Swiss announcement which was timed to, I suggest, keep gold under $320 til after the Euro meeting of this coming weekend. In this manner no "threat" to the US $ will appear to be in the works. Common sense dictates that the only reason for the Euro is, in fact, to challenge the US $. It will not appear as economic warfare if gold just happens to go up before January 1, 1999.

Additionally, the people of Europe will demand gold as reserves. Failing that the Euro fails. This has been planed and orchestrated for to long. Their is a purpose to what is going on, we just don't know the answer yet. One thing I do know is that if the CB's of Europe wanted gold at $290 right now that's exactly were it would be. It is not a this price for a reason. It's rise will appear to be simply a bull market after the many years of the bear. Conspiracy? Perhaps but more probably just good planning and management.

I could be wrong but if I am this might be more bullish for gold. Maybe the Swiss announcement really was, as I first believed, to cover for leased out gold that could not be returned if the price rose. Either way you cut it something is up and time tells all

Patience, my son, patience.IMHO

Tom

Dear Oris, the last poster who continually harassed our brother, John, had the hots for him in a big way. Do you suppose maybe this Golden Prophet, maybe...?

all of these could be the problem. Donald must be rescued!

Maybe that's a helpful clue. Gold Coin site doesn't have registration, does it? If not, it sounds like a registration problem. I think Bart's computer recognizes Donald's ( registration ) by his cookies. Donald: Want to try renaming your cookie file or moving it to another directory? That way you can always get it back. Then try logging on and see if anything different happens.

Brother Tom, your thoughts are my thoughts.
Although $1200 looks a little bit too much.
But it sure looks like THEIR plan to me...

This is a calender booklet on upcoming market events that you should be You may be able to obtain free from the the source, Salomon Smith Barney or your broker.

Example

April 29
TOCOM
U.S.Homes sales
Poulty Prod.& Value
FN: May Natural Gas ( NYM )
LT: Apr. Hang Seng Ind ( HKFE )

April 30
May Gold/Silver/CPR ( CMX ) Etc.

Why doesn't someone tell Donald their password and he can post now under that name ( while telling people it's Donald ) and also put in for a new name and password now. ( Which takes a week, if I'm not mistaken )

My friend, do you mean that golden prophet is not,
pardon me, a mister...???...but...but.. WOW!!!
Oh, my God, we should warn John's maid ASAP...
And all of this is about 100 bucks???

Brother oris good to here from you. I marvel at your thoughts on motivation. As I said this weekend "Houston, we got a problem".

Tom

Done. Hope to hear from him soon. ( He's lurking ) . He and Bart are working on the problem, BTW.

Since it hasn't been said for a day or two......Why doesn't some clever fellow like Bill Gates, take a puny 750 Mill from his billions, and buy up all the COMEX Gold & Silver...thus driving the price to the Moon & Stars, and further increasing his wealth? ( Not to mention controlling a good portion of the world's PM's after this, and having a ready supply of inventory for any electronics ventures! )

LGB: We agree on this matter. I saw the strength of the computer stocks rallying just before 'ping II'. To my amazement flagship stocks such as HP, Intel and IBM were relatively unaffected. That is not a symptom of a market demise. As I have posted, my opinion is that we will have a bullish period -- and I let the gurus such as APH and Oldman,etc tell us how long. This is also bullish for the gold stocks.

I bought some sp-500 calls this AM. I'll freely admit I am nowhere near the expertise of APH or Oldman, however.

In fact, it does not matter too much for CBs now ( and ECB in future ) , what exact market value of Gold do we have today. Important point of course, is the price at the day ECB will book it. Later - not really. If you know, CBs ( and in the future - ECB ) re-value book price of Gold in reserve once in several years. There are some differences here, by country, but one most common procedure - once in n years take the lowest price, happened to be in last m years and take it as a new book price of Gold.

Has Donald e-mailed Bart? I assume he has.
It is a puzzle. He can access the site, but not post, is that correct?

HighRise

You got the experts on it now, I'm going back to the garage.
Good luck!

Say it once and you will never forget it:

Poke chops poke chops
Greezy greezy
Gold's gonna fly
Eezy eezy


Later

Just saw your post that they are working on it.

HighRise

I understand that reserves, including gold, will be valued on transfer as of January 1,1999. Is this correct? Any further specifics much appreciated.

Tom

I agree, there is good reason to expect some more good months. Old man's analysis was sound. Who can really see farther than that? On the other hand, I have about halved my US stock market position over this last year. Would you be totally OK if it all went Kablooie tomorrow? I'm nearly there.

Donald doesn't want to use my handle. We've got to be patient, now. Anyone heard any good jokes lately?

BBL

First, I want to compliment FARFEL on his ( or her ) well-thought-out posting earlier today. Additionally, I wish to express my appreciation for FARFEL's numerous postings of substance that enrich this site.

It is refreshing to read such intelligent postings that are free from character flames. Although I must admit that I sometimes get frustrated with the shorts who have helped to keep gold depressed, postings with such substance make this site worth reading...and it is one of only two sites that I ever bother to read. Also, I enjoy most of the postings from several other regular contributors, including ANOTHER -- riddles and all.

--Skip

Let me begin with the most rewarding news of the day. It revolves around the "change in perception" by one of the senior players in the gold market... a change in perception I actively promoted on this forum some eight months ago ( to many hoots of derision by various Kitco posters ) and one which I actively raised with Mr. Munk and several of his associates at around the same time.


-------------------------
April 29, 1998

``This industry must think very hard about what it's doing,'' Newmont Mining Corp ( NEM - news ) Executive Vice President Wayne Murdy said in a speech.

``The hedging book is part of what's killing shareholder value in this industry,'' said Murdy, whose Denver-based company announced on Monday it was on track to produce between 3.8 million and 4.0 million ounces of gold in 1998.

During the last decade, gold miners have increasingly sought to limit the effects of falling gold prices by selling forward future production, using loaned gold from central banks to set up their positions.

While Murdy accepted the need occasionally to hedge individual projects, he said it should not become a company's core strategy.

``It seems inconsistent to us to sell gold forward at the same time as prompting people to invest in your stock,'' he said, adding that gold was the only commodity where forward sales did not need a
counter-party with opposite views on price.

Murdy estimated banks had lost up to $150 billion over the few years in the value of their bullion reserves by aiding a process that pushed gold prices lower. Bank revenues from gold-leasing were minimal in comparison, he said later.
-----------------

This represents a major conceptual advance on the part of senior gold producers who, by virtue of depreciating the value of CB gold via producer sell forwards, have shot themselves in their collective feet and almost succeeded in destroying an entire industry.

This change in perception by Newmont Mining will hopefully disseminate broadly throughout the entire industry. If various CB's are unable to recognize a notable upward movement in the valuations of their gold reserves, then who can blame them for wishing to sell those same reserves? Fortunately, those CB's selling reserves recently are selling to other more astute, stronger CB's that realize the "temporary" weak price aberrations occurring within the gold market.

The other piece of good news: today, both gold and the XAU moved decisively upward DESPITE an overwhelming preponderance of negative short-term technical forecasts provided by various technicians who hold the goldbug crowd in thrall ( However, I must note one particular exception: MR. APH provided Kitco with his highly incisive KISS ( keep it simple, stupid ) rule not long ago, providing a ruler line drawing that indicated a new, distinct gold bull trend. I salute this MR. APH for going against the majority of negative technical opinion in such a bold and knowing manner. Frankly, I have never witnessed a technician provide sure a pure, simple, ingenious explanation of a market trend without the usual technical mucky-muck about polynomials, etc. Again, congrats! ) .

Gold's performance today was encouraging given a notable strengthening in both the DOW and NASDAQ. Most recently, in the absence of negative fundamental market manipulations by Wall Street ( such as Monday's GREAT SWISS WHOPPER ) , gold and the XAU have provided continual evidence of negative beta ( contrarian ) price movement to equities. So, when gold is also able to move in positive beta to equities, then it provides additional evidence that gold is evolving into a preferred professional asset independent of the direction of market movements.
movements.

I say professional asset because volumes remain relatively moderate and selective with many junior golds experiencing extremely low volumes. Therefore, the small investors are still too preoccupied with general industrial equities to give a hoot about gold at this point. Again, this augurs well for impressive double-digit increases when populist interest heats up.

Precious Metals Relativity Index...even more encouraging for gold, other than silver ( gold's sister ) , the other white metals took quite a tumble; yet, gold remained strong in the face of such weakness. I would expect that over time, especially with an imminent, notable stock market setback, gold will develop more of a negative beta to Plat and Palladium...in fact, analogous to general industrial equities, there should arrive a point where gold strengthens agains Plat and Palladium no matter what direction the two white metals are moving.

Kitco Barometer...today, this is the most disappointing and disturbing aspect of gold's performance today. Far too much exuberance, internecine squabbles, high emotion, and boosterism provides a VERY BEARISH signal for gold. It is too early in the incipient gold bull to see such wild emotion...and too early in the incipient gold bull to see this forum once again dissolve into petty arguments amongst bitter goldbugs. Yet, it is in complete conflict with any other positive indicators I have described here. I do not know if this is a one day aberrational "emotional" event or the first sign of some imminent left-field drop. Although every indicator I look at suggests much positivity for gold, this new development is disturbing. However, on the other hand, gold antagonist postings remain at about the same level suggesting no change in the Kitco status quo there.

Finally, I am maintaining an EXTREME BULLISH position on gold with a SHORT TERM CAUTION owing to a very contrary indicator.

Thanks.

F*

It's probably not cookies; just for a test today I cleaned my cookies file. All I had to do to post again was to re-enter the password in the posting slot. My guess is that it's a password problem on one end or the other.

I have several extra handles if you need one........just e.mail.....no charge....you can't have ANOTHER, though...yes?

Yup, I've had the same thing happen. My Netscape Navigator cookie file has two Kitco cookies one is to remember my password and the other is to remember my long text/short text preference. So maybe the problem is in Bart's computer. Anyway, they will have it fixed soon, I'm sure.

IDCIBM

Hasta la pasta!

Tom,
To date it is known, that Gold will be booked by ECB by market value or by same calculated value, based on current market value with respect of 01.01.99. In fact, some of European Gold is already on account of European Monetary Institute in Frankfurt ( to be trasformed to ECB ) - they will probably simply re-value this part. Final word on this matter belongs to future ECB - thats why - beside all other things - personality of the first President if ECB is so important
d

Daily gold chart with lots of crazy lines on it....

This is a chart of the SPREAD between the long bond yield and ninety day money. Perhaps some sense of reality creeping back in to the bond market??? Stocks beware.......

BBL............

Dow/Gold = 28.88; XAU/Gold = .291; Gold/Silver = 49.84 Donald received another password today from Bart - still can't post.

Nice chart! - Especially the crossing the 200 dma stuff....launch tomorrow? Friday? I think so...soon

.

So I would be careful about JUST ASSUMING that comex will come up with the gold to fulfill the deliveries.


The trend is in and it has been lower and lower comex stocks.

New York-April 28-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
CHASE MANHATTAN
Registered
0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible
0 0 0 0 0 0
Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
SCOTIA MOCATTA
Registered
76,121 0 0 0 0 78,323
Eligible
39,149 0 0 0 0 36,947
Total
115,270 0 0 0 0 115,270
MORGAN GUARANTY
Registered
166,328 0 0 0 0 166,328
Eligible
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682
Total
184,010 0 0 0 0 184,010
REPUBLIC NATIONAL
Registered
232,755 0 0 0 0 232,755
Eligible
112,406 0 0 0 0 112,406
Total
345,161 0 0 0 0 345,161
SWISS BANK CORP.
Registered
0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible
0 0 0 0 0 0
Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
WILMINGTON TRUST
Registered
0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible
0 0 0 0 0 0
Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL REGISTERED
475,204 0 0 0 0 477,406
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
169,237 0 0 0 0 167,035
COMBINED TOTAL
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

We have seen in the stock market that it does not matter what a company earns, only that the earnings "beat expectations". The same must be true for the Euro gold backing. If anyone asks, tell them you expect it to be 5%. If the expectation is 5%, then 15% would cause a huge rally. People who predict 30% ( Italy ) are setting gold up for a fall. No one will care that 15% is far above the expectation of 0-5% of 6 months ago. Only the most recent expectation matters.

I want to thank the posters here for making this the best site on the Internet. This must be one of the most intelligent group of people ever assembled, bulls and bears alike. Well, maybe the bulls have a slight edge.

Regulars here probably noticed, that I pay much attention to EURO subject. As most of all other Gold Bugs, I wait for outcome of EU meeting next weekend. Unfortunately, I have to make business trip ( from Netherlands ) to New York and leave coming Saturday evening. So, I will not be able to provide any information on this matter during several days. If any of Kitco regular posters [may be???] wants to discuss our Gold Buss problems not in cyberspace but face to face - I will be glad to have such a meeting. It is not confirmed yet, but with high probability I will be staying in Sheraton hotel, Long Island. You can contact me at xv@bigfoot.com

Count down to the Euro summit begins

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1012.htm

Farfel--you pinpoint an interesting dilemma: inaccuracies in posted material. The specific paper to which you referred was an Email from a colleague in Brussels, certainly not confidential in any way, but the sender asked for "no attribution" beyond from Brussels ( and did mention that the information was available on the net, without specifying where. Does one then correct and explain? Or post and stand-back? Solomons call--and, unfortunately, Im not anything like Solomon!
( This is a serious concern, however; I do not mean to make light of it. But it is a judgment call: does the information offer enough to stand on its own, or is it seriously corrupted? I decided it made a contribution, flawed though it was. Hope you agree? {:- )

Back on-line thanks to Bart and all your suggestions. It was a bad cookie problem.

Nice chart! - Especially the crossing the 200
dma stuff....launch tomorrow? Friday? I
think so...soon

4/29/98 -- 7:14 PM

Countdown to Euro summit begins with debate in European


BRUSSELS, Belgium ( AP ) - A debate in the European Parliament on the readiness of European nations for the new single currency started the countdown to a weekend
summit at which 11 participant countries will be officially named.

Yves-Thibault de Silguy, the European Union's finance chief, told the Parliament Wednesday that the nations had made great strides in recent years in meeting tough
economic criteria for joining the euro currency club.

He said the average public deficit in the 11 countries that will be selected by the 15 EU leaders over the weekend had dropped from 5.5 percent in 1993 to 2.5 percent in
1997.

``This result was achieved despite a difficult economic outlook, thanks to a real reduction in spending,'' he said.

He stressed that a smooth transition to the euro will depend on how well-informed citizens are across the EU. ``The demand for information will keep growing. Both the
public and private sector must be ready to deal with this,'' he said.

Late Wednesday, parliamentary deputies reviewed a report that takes a look at how each of the EU countries meets the criteria for joining the single currency, due to be
launched Jan. 1.

Karl von Wogau, head of the parliament's Economic Affairs Committee and author of the report, gave an upbeat assessment of the economic situation in Europe.

``The European Union has developed a culture of monetary stability,'' he said. ``The markets expect that stability to continue.''

Alan Donnelly, a deputy of the Socialist party, urged the EU to continue addressing such social issues as high unemployment ``to assure citizens that this is a worthwhile
project.''

The Parliament's economic committee have given its backing to plans for 11 nations to participate in the euro project. The full Parliament, largely a consultative body, is
expected to give its approval during a vote on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the EU's budget chief, Erkki Liikanen, presented the group's first annual budget in euros. The draft budget for 1999 totals 96.9 billion euros ( about
$105.6 billion ) .

In the evening, a committee of high-ranking treasury and central bank officials from each of the 15 EU countries was due to discuss a proposal by German Finance
Minister Theo Waigel. Waigel wants to commit high-debt nations, particularly Italy and Belgium, to move quickly to a balanced budget and to use any surplus money to
reduce their debts.

Waigel hopes to calm German fears that the stability of the euro could be eroded by the entry of high-debt countries.

Most of the issues on the agenda for the weekend summit in Brussels have already been resolved. The biggest remaining question is who will run the European Central
Bank, which will set interest rates and run monetary policy for nations that adopt the euro.

Most EU nations support Wim Duisenberg of the Netherlands, who heads the European Monetary Institute, the forerunner of the central bank. But France wants its own
central banker, Jean-Claude Trichet, to lead the ECB.

France suggested the eight-year term of ECB governor should be split between the two candidates. But neither Germany nor the Netherlands likes the idea. In parliament,
Von Wogau said ``we want a candidate for the entire eight-year period.''

In an interview Wednesday with the German radio Deutschlandfunk, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker also said the presidency won't be split.

The squabbling over candidates has led to criticism that EU leaders are undermining the credibility of the euro by failing to reach an agreement on who will run the bank.

Countries expected to take part in the euro are Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Portugal and Austria.

Denmark, Britain and Sweden plan to remain out of the first wave of participants, and Greece has not met the economic criteria for joining.

Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

The BIS-IMF conundrum


Man has been on the planet for perhaps 500,000 years. Most of that time he hunted, fished and searched for berries to survive. Necessity required that individualism be suppressed and that the tribe was supreme. Food, shelter and defense are shared within a tribal community. Thus those many years of tribal cultural tradition are deeply ingrained in humans, and understandably so.

About 6000 years ago the concept of money was invented and gold evolved as the best type of money. This invention, for the first time in human culture, permitted the division of labor. Individualism became possible for those who were bold enough to leave the tribe and had the skills to survive in a single occupation. Individualism was a threat to the tribe in the social sense but had the advantage of providing the tribe with products that were not previously possible; thus it was grudgingly tolerated.

Society is still wrestling with this dilemma. The struggle between socialism and capitalism is not over and perhaps will never end because there are virtues in both.

Who are the bankers to the socialistic and capitalistic halves of the world? The IMF represents the tribal point of view and seeks to have all the benefits of tribal life. Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall it has even sought to represent its former enemies, the Communists. It recognizes the necessity of money but does not understand the primary value of money; that is, its ability to permit the continued division of labor. Typical of a tribal enterprise its "owners" are the taxpayers of the tribe. Ownership is not optional or voluntary.

The BIS, on the other hand, understands the primary value of money and its understands its importance to the division of labor and the concept of individualism. It recognizes that the destruction of money will cause a reversion to tribalism, the destruction of individualism, and a degradation in the standard of living of all.

Why did the BIS select Hong Kong as the site of its first branch? This is pure conjecture on my part. I would like to think that the BIS is worried about the inroads the IMF is making in Asia. It sees the necessity of opening an office in the heart of the most socialist country in Asia in order to teach the tribe the benefits of individualism. Hong Kong, a former British colony, is the place within Asia where individualism is most respected. It knows the IMF is broke and can not meet the expectations of Asia. Only the BIS is solvent enough to provide the assistance it sees as being needed in the chaos of a likely IMF failure. The BIS is the bank of the bankers. Its sees its fate intertwined with a flourishing division of labor. Its health is dependent upon the health of producers. Those producer/owners of the BIS, rightly or wrongly, have targeted China as a prime customer. The owners of the BIS are its shareholders. Shares include a defined amount of gold. Ownership is optional and voluntary. I think this all has positive aspects for gold.

Searching Roman history for lessons of the past we have the example of Constantine, Founder of the Eastern Empire who struck his first gold coin in Constantinople in 383 A.D. The purity of those coins, Bezants as they were called, remained constant for 1000 years and the eastern branch of the Roman Empire flourished during the entire time. The western branch of the Roman Empire however, debasing its coinage by reducing the purity of its gold, was gone in less than 100 years. What followed was nearly 800 years of the Dark Ages during which time not a single gold coin was struck. No better example can be found of the absolute direct connection between honest money and the survival of civilization.

It should then come as no surprise that the reintroduction of gold coinage in Venice and Florence in the 13th century permitted the restoration of commerce that continues to this day. Is it fair to equate the simple introduction of a BIS branch office in Hong Kong to the founding of Constantinople? Perhaps not. As Mark Twain said, history rarely repeats itself ; but it often rhymes.

Brothers, our Kitco brother Delphi is going to stay
in Sheraton, Long Island. I would gladly give away
my free lunch you promised me, although with regret,
of course, if you, brothers could buy him lunch in exchange
for his info...Brother Delphi knows stuff for sure...

A pure tone sounding over the babble of our times. Welcome back.

Eating is one of our activities we cannot do without. Several people have posted here expressing worry over a bottom line investment. I have lived and worked in rural Alaska a few years in places food was hard to come by. Found wheat, hard red winter wheat, in 5 gallon plastic pails with a hand grinder to be a lifesaver. Ended up buying a ton and putting it in the bottom of a boat. Ate it all, it keeps real good, bought another ton now I'm almost out. Gives me a sense of secuity gold can't touch. Fresh groung wheat makes delicious bread. Get enough to last for years, put it in the basement, you know you will eat.

If you are backed up with food it isn't necessary to make what otherwise can be painful decisions.

Hi to the dairy farmer, I was raised in the company of cows

Your posts are a source of great interest always, and I thank you for your searching of the world's info relevant to gold and your posting of references.

That said, and without criticism implied, what is your relationship to the Bank for Interational Settlements, or, perhaps more relevant, how do you know what their mission is? What are they trying to do that is different from before? How can those of us without your contacts review this issue for ourselves? Where are the purposes and goals of BIS set forth?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/feature_fi_1.html

To 223: Palladium spot prices are based on Pd in the form of 9995+ sponge refined or assayed by the major refiners like Johnson Matthey or Engelhard. Pd in the form of metal takes 6-8 weeks to be refined into sponge by those firms.

The metal at the current price then would be worth the value of the future price 6-8 weeks out. So to know at what price the bars can be liquidated at today you have to look at the futures market two months away. The gaping difference between the spot and future markets is why the bars are bought by dealers at such a big discount to spot.

In this market the best way to own palladium is in a pool account of sponge held at one of the major refiners. That way you have instant liquidity very close to the posted spot prices.

I'm going to respond to a few other things later.... gotta run.

Thanks. SDRer's question of several days ago was the trigger.

Great to see you back! GULP...to ya!

Looks like you've been reading Ridgeway. If not where did you get it. A great appraisal of history of money. Thanx, Charlie

It was WORTH waiting for! {:- )

I have no connection with the BIS and no contacts there; and I don't know anyone who does. Just thinking it through to my own conclusion based upon publicly available information.

FWIW,The chart looks ready for a 4 week drop http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha87.gif

Multiyear triple head

Guess I'm still not clear on the part Gold will play in the EMU. From reading Kitco today, I gather that the EMU is NOT going to be Gold-backed? By Gold-backed, I mean a certain amount of Gold guaranteed per unit of currency, like the SDR Gold Franc. If that is the case, seems like the European CB would have the ability to debase the EMU if they so choose.

come from another Farfel jem,your 18.56 brought tears to my eyes : )

In my opinion the kitco chat board cannot serve as any kind of an indicator because it is limited to mainly gold bugs. Anyone else would probably not waste their time following the groups messages. I for one read some of post everyday just to learn whatever I can and dismiss taking count of the pros and cons.

http://www.bis.org/

Excellent post. But, of course...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/china_riot_1.html

Thank you for the response. Tom

message sent. Now if I can find Sheller, last I heard he was buying a ton of paint for the Presidential digs.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/dlr_mark_o_1.html

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 19:43
Donald ( Used my down time to good advantage ) ID#26793:
Copyright  1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The BIS-IMF conundrum

Great work Donald. I would like to emphasize that BIS chose CHINA for its new home. VERY SIGNIFICANT. I believe that China, Islam, Russia and Japan are working on some kind of gold backed currency ( either new or more likely using Japanese YEN as the starting point with gold backing and BIS monitoring ) . my guess is that the deal was that China would support the YEN if they got the BIS headquyarters, Russia just wants in and Islam wants a stable honest currency ( Europe has locked out Islam and Russia ) . The big 4 will make it work for the same reasons that Europe will make the euro work - they must. The world is moving away fromt he us dollar - massive inflation will occur as soon as trading starts in the currencies, inflation for the USA and its cronies that is.

This is all my personal opinion.

Well said, well done. Tom

I've been playing around with mousetraps and ping pong balls,
trying to come up with a more reasonable bullish/bearish
indicator than is the illogical "Kitco" indicator. The metal
spring and trap assembly is some sort of copper alloy, such as
brass. Can I temper it and make the trap spring faster?

Waxes eloquently, then wacks out. F*, you should know about
mousetraps. Have you ever tried tempering?

Donald: Terrific post.

Aurophile: Great questions.

Another: You blew it big time with your attack on RJ. A person
as big as you appeared to be would not "walk as low".
Please be more careful. And please make
your "ball of string" long enough so the end continues
to be "where no eyes can see." I enjoy your writing,
although some of it, I must confess, is just like
"Greek to me."

How did you compile the messages of Another? I would like to compile the posts of another on this forum concerning the link between the US Dollar, the Gold Franc, and the SDR. Thanks,
- c

Do you think perhaps there is some pyritic pee in your cat's milk that causes you to tron for sweet Ziva ?

Maybe they should add the same disclaimer to spot silver and gold prices.

Maybe something like spot prices are based on paper trading and do not necessarily represent relationship to actual prices paid for bullion.
Its a paper commodities world, what are they going to do when they have to deliver, when folks dump the usdollar, when everyone understands their scam.

I don't care, because I am buying gold, taking delivery, and hanging onto it. Get it while you still can. bbml.

*********
Updating Latest Spot Metal Market Prices



-- Updating throughout --

New York-April 28-UPI--LATEST SPOT METAL MARKET PRICES.
Prices do not necessarily represent prices at which
transactions have actually incurred.

Aluminum, New York Merchants, 99.7% pure ingots
69.25-70.25 cents per pound.

Antimony, merchant, refined in alloy,
$0.91-1.05 lb.

Copper, electrolytic wirebars,
95.55 cents per pound.
Scrap wire No. 2 N.Y. 68.00 cents per pound.

Lead, common, corroding 45.54 cent per pound

Magnesium, 99.8%, ingot
180.00 c-lb.

Manganese, 99.7%, boxed regular
115.00-117.00 c-lb.

Mercury, $180.00-195.00 76-lb. flask.

Nickel, briquettes delivered to customers,
$3.60-3.65 per pound.

Palladium, N.Y. dealer -
$390.00 per troy ounce.

Platinum, soft, 99.5 fine, producer
$409.00-412.00 dealer-approx.
per troy ounce.

Steel, No. 1 heavy melting Philadelphia scrap -
$128.00-130.00 per ton.

Titanium, aircraft quality, 8 1/8 inch round rotating
billet, f.o.b. shipping point
$5.00-6.00 lbs.,
domestic sponge 99.3%, domestic and imported duty-paid
$4.25-4.50 lb.

Tungsten ore $45.00-55.00 per ton.

Zinc, special high grade,
U.S. 53.03-54.78 c-lb.

Zinc, prime western,
U.S. 53.78-54.78 c-lb.

The question of whether the top is in yet in Wall Street goes unanswered, but along with the myriad of other clues of wild speculation is this advertisement I caught the other day in a magazine: "90% stock loans" available at www.FirstSecurityCapital.com

Hmmm Shades of 1929 ?

Sell treasury bonds & notes and buy gold=recovery. Tom

http://www.savannahnow.com:80/stories/042998/CMNcox.html

Wednesday April 29, 8:35 pm Eastern Time

U.S. March new-home sales drop

WASHINGTON, April 29 ( Reuters ) - Sales of new homes dropped in March, the Commerce
Department said on Wednesday in a report also revising down its earlier estimates of sizzling sales
during each of the three prior months.

March sales fell 5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 -- well below Wall Street
economists' expectations for an 866,000-unit sales pace -- following a revised 3 percent gain in
February to 872,000. Previously, the department said February sales were at a record 893,000
units a year.

March sales were barely 0.6 percent above the level a year earlier, in March 1997, when new
homes were selling at an 823,000-a-year rate.

Previously, the department said December sales were running at 810,000 a year but it revised that
down to 805,000. January sales were revised down to 847,000 a year from a previously reported
852,000.

March new-home sales softened in every region of the country except the Northeast, where they
were unchanged from February at 87,000 a year. In the West, sales dropped 7.9 percent to an
annual rate of 222,000 and in the South they were down 5.1 percent to 334,000 -- the lowest rate
since 330,000 in October 1996. Sales in the Midwest dipped 4.1 percent to 185,000.

Notwithstanding March's sales decline and the evidence that prior sales were not quite as lofty as
thought earlier, the new-home sales market remains healthy, buttressed by strong job growth and
rising incomes. The average sales price for new homes in March shot up to a record $183,500 from
$179,600 in February.

( Combines takes, adds market reaction, analyst comments, byline )

By Glenn Somerville

http://www.forbes.com:80/forbes/98/0504/6109193a.htm

A very good post! Thank you for your insights. It is good to have you posting again!

http://builder.hw.net:80/news/1998/apr/29/trea29.htx

Very nice to see you back, greatly appreciat your posts.

@P* Thanks for the interesting historical note showing the extent "organized buying support" was accepted as OK as far back as 1929. Wall Stree has been the Corporate vanguard or American Corporate Scocilaism for a long time indeed.

@J* Yes, I keep an informal mental catalog of incidents of the suppression of substantive truth in the USA. There are a great many entries related to healing and medicine.

I once read that the difference between a first world country and a third world country is that in a third world country everything is politicized. By this measure, the USA has become a third world country. A century of militarism will do that to a nation.

Interesting that you should develop connections between a tribal past and a socialist present. National socialism then combines the strongest currents of tribalism into one stream.

Thank you. It's tough being stranded in cyberspace. Kitco Command sent up Bart with a rescue module. "That's the way the cookie crumbles." I always wondered what that meant.

closed.

Thus with the power vested in me by Kitco fraternity I now declare a full fledged Gold Bull right into next millenium.......

Thanks to All, Enjoy the ride.......

I wonder if we shall look back and comprehend the push for the Euro was Y2K triage in Europe ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/mexico_s_f_1.html

Thank you so much.

I think you guys are right that the "plunge protection team" is a sign of the end of the party.

It seems to me that people are missing a great profit opportunity, though. After all- astute investors make money from market imbalances, and nothing can unbalance a market like the government coming in and buying thousands of S&P 500 contracts.

It seems like a great way to make money, since you can tell when the PPT is moving into action. It starts when the markets feefall ( as in Oct. last year, and in Jan. this year ) and suddenly there is a surge of S&P 500 buying interest originating with Goldman & Sachs, according to the on floor trader who has real-time access to the market. He says he has personally made a ton of money from the phenomenon- but of course, he's right there watching the screens and can trade on a moment's notice. He wasn't much help concerning how a person tied to a desk job who can only look the market up occasionally via netscape could take advantage of something like that.

There has to be a way for us peons to get in on the action. Maybe getting into options spreads that will take advantage of the huge increase in volatility. We would need a way to be alerted via the net to developing market chaos.

Any ideas, folks? I'd love to hear them.

- Steve

The producers are telling the CB's the about their $100
to $150 billion dollar loses in their gold holdings,just
as Pomboy Capital told them about 8 months ago.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/markets_go_1.html
A Goose: copper warehouse inventories on the LME have been droping considerably. Wonder where it's being used.
http://www.metalprices.com

problems there and possibly elsewhere..

I save the stories in a word file document using Microsoft Word 97 and then use the program to convert the file to html format.

...the Kitco Barometer I use is a gauge of goldbug psychology. I have a little chart with most frequent posters names and I place a number by the name ( between 1-10 ) indicating level of exuberance, # of informative posts, temperament, and a whole litany of factors.

Since it deals with psychology, it is not categorically scientific. As such, it is truly idiosyncratic, self-devised, and subjective. Nevertheless, I do find it serves me well in determining aggregate goldbug psychology.

Although there are Kitcoites that find the notion of such an indicator to be "screwy" in conception, ultimately, the litmus test of its validity is its ability to predict gold market moves.

To date, it has served me well...however, I must further add that, as mentioned previously, I place most of my faith in fundamental, non-psychological analysis.

In that sense, my Kitco Barometer is certainly the least valid variable I examine on a daily basis ( that's why I post it last ) ...especially considering the difficulty in making absolute conclusive determinations of a poster's "tone of voice," e.g., serious or sarcastic, etc. and a poster's state of mind as it pertains to exogenous, NON-gold related matters, e.g., maybe the wife is giving a certain poster a hard time or another poster's car is busted, etc.

Thanks.

F*

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/banco_de_c_1.html

For those who want to know. At the close of business on 4/29/98:

DROOY--3 5/8 NC LIHRY--34 1/4 +1 3/4 ( +5.38% )
HGMCY--5 5/8 +15/64 ( +4.35% ) VENGF--1 1/14 + 1/16 ( +5.26% )
RANGY--1 1/2 +1/32 ( +2.13% ) BMG----7 1/4 + 1/4 ( +3.57% )
ECO----3 5/8 +3/16 ( +5.45% )

Needless to say a good day for gold miners across the board with LIHIR, VENGOLD and ECO the clear winners of the day! Perhaps the message is finally gettin' through to the smart money lookin' for them safe havens!

The ECI number tomorrow will provide a temporary inflation indicator. If it is high, it will signal higher interest rates ( The DOW and the XAU took a beating on Monday when it was suggested the Fed would tighten ) . This will be another indicator of whether gold equities are simply rising in sympathy with the general equity market ( bubble ) or follow their own drummer. I fear they are in lock=step but hope otherwise.

Abstract from TheStreet.com
PaineWebber senior fixed-income strategist Mike Ryan said " the Fed is concerned enough about the strength of the economy that it is seriously considering rate hikes. Known to be one of the Fed's favorite economic indicators, the ECI, which measures how fast the cost of wages, salaries and benefits is growing.

Expectations are for the quarterly ECI to advance 0.9%, on the heels of a 1.0% increase in last year's fourth quarter. But if it's either higher or lower than the consensus range ( 0.8% to 1.1% ) , expect the bond market to react strongly in one direction or the other."

For example if the number is 0,8% for the quarter ( times 4 quarters=3.2% annual rate ) the market should love it and respond bullishly.

Maybe this could serve the purpose you describe. You could set up signals to state volotility in SP500 I believe. I'm not sure you could feel comfortable investing this way, but it could work. Just a suggestion.

Good Luck ... WL

Here's a URL for the market and prem trade by trade. Prem is on right and you can tell when dow slides, the prem is pushed up so dow tends to go up. If you have trouble, call me-704 433 6473 URL is www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes Hope this helps, Charlie

Damn that pisses me off! When will "they" start publishing reliable statistics the FIRST TIME? The USG is completely incompetent and totally corrupt! They cannot even keep track of basic accounting! They are all a bunch of F' IDIOTS!! Unemployment figures - unreliable! Campaign finances - funded by CHINA ( and who else? ) !! And the press? - forget it, totally useless. The United States of American Special Interests have slaughtered my Consitution, my Bill of Rights, my Natural Laws, and my freedom!! Rubin - "The US still supports a strong dollar." I hope it burns like HELL!! I won't feel sorry for any dollar grabbing citizen either - complacent bastards sucking away at everything!

"OOPS!! Sorry that we are too incompetent to report reliable information. We had to tamper with it for our petty political causes. We are bumbling idiots. You understand, don't you?"

- NO. USG, you have earned my most earnest vote of complete incompetence. You think you can adjust any figure any way that suits you. You give billions to the IMF, nuclear missile technology to China, and prison terms to "your" anti-prohibitionists. YOU SUCK! To think I sold four years of my life to you once. I will do everything in my power to make all those responsible ACCOUNTABLE! That includes your little complacent supporters. GO TO HELL!!

To close:
Voting is our only opportunity to correct these wrongs without hurting a lot of people. Since Congress cannot seem to limit themselves, our best option is to vote for the least financed, unknown nobody in elections. Vote for Eskimos, Native American Indians, and Latin Americans. Vote for teachers and scientists and garbage collectors. It is time to clean house. At this point, voting for the incumbant is the most un-American thing one can do. They all suck. Oust the Special Interests. Turn everything over and shake it up. Then, they'll know we won't stand for BS. I am so sick of it - DAMN!!

I feel better now... I think I will go to bed.
- c

@Steve Nice work if you can get it. I think interviews are conducted at the inaugural ball.

@Futurists HighRise, I think, expressed it this way: they are betting everything. Everything, then, will be consumed when the bet goes against them. But, everything takes a while to bet.

You got it. I know a good UPS man and a garbage collector. You know where my vote is going . Charlie

First, thank you for your link re China a few days past. It was excellent, and led me to more very good reading.

As for the S&P 500 spreads. Sounds like a fun way to gamble money you can afford to lose. Why not? If you win, you can buy more gold. We're doing much the same ( on the home front ) in a very small way with Intel as a market proxy. Alot cheaper, but then, I only gamble at the quarter machines in Nevada! Major gambling done in the futures market. Usually in precious metals, long. Other futures don't have that insurance ( can always take possession and hold until price is back ) . Gold has been found in ancient treasure troves where conditions were too humid for any other items to pass the test of time unscathed. If it can survive 4000 years in a humid dump, it can survive whatever period my family hold it!

Says a whole bunch sir-now take a midol & when ur feelin' better in the A.M.-Ted left room for one more in Cape Breton-we are organizing our own
Cape Breton Liberation Army & will be prepared for the New Millenium.
Come on back Ted-we need ya. Do not remember the Gaelic version-translated-Will ye no come back again??????

The Bank of England 1690s by "harpy of Grocers' Hall, lead by William Paterson, a private corporation operating under public authority, loaned 11,690,000 of paper money-to overcome gold and silver scarcity. After fifty years, the government had not paid off the debt. But in the meantime, the government had paid a staggering amount of interest 23,000,000 more than twice the amount it had borrowed.

The flashpoint in the creditor-debtor struggle was the Bank of the United States, a largely private bank chartered by Congress in 1816, modelled on the Bank of England. Pioneer Americans who had faced great hardship to escape the yoke of entrenched power in the old country reacted angrily to the emergence of the same sort of established interests in their new democracy.

The farmers, labourers and small merchants who made up the solid citizenry of the new republic had come to believe that this was their country, and they were damned if they were going to surrender it to a new ruling class.

The Bank of the United States represented just such a class. It quickly became the bank of the wealthy, handling the fortunes of rich families and corporations as well as the deposits of the federal government. Under the direction of the sophisticated financier Nicholas Biddle, who himself came from a wealthy family, the bank became an important force dealing in foreign exchange and domestic financial transactions.

More important, it operated almost like a central bank, playing a major role in controlling access to credit throughout the union. One way it did this was particularly infuriating to the smaller banks, ( 1800- 30 private banks..1836- 713 private banks ) , which operated under state charters.
Whenever the powerful Bank of the United States got its hands on the banknotes of these smaller banks, it returned the notes and demanded that the smaller banks redeem them immediately in gold, which meant that the banks had to recall some of their outstanding loans in order to maintain the same ratio of loans to gold.

This not only reduced the smaller banks' profit potential, but it also reduced the amount of money in circulation, as more and more loans were recalled.The result was the familiar one: with less money in circulation, most people ended up worse off.

When the Farmers Exchange Bank of Rhode Island failed in 1809, for instance, an investigating committee set up by the State Legislature discovered that the bank had loaned to the public $580 million worth of banknotes, even though it only had a capital base of $3 million to back up the loans.

Sound or not, the entrepreneurial spirit that had been let loose in the new republic thrived on access to credit. And the Bank of the United States, to which the smaller local banks sometimes turned in their desperate need of capital, became a symbol of the cautious conservatism of the eastern establishment.

In his crusade against the bank, Andrew Jackson rallied the forces of the hard-working farmers and labourers and would-be entrepreneurs of America. When Jackson won the confrontation, and the bank was stripped of many of its powers in 1832, it seemed that the people had triumphed over privilege.

With the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861, the demands for credit became greater than ever. So, despite spirited opposition from tight-money enthusiasts, the U.S abandoned the gold standard. By early 1862, the demands of the war effort were so great that Congress took the bold step of issuing paper money, just as the Continental Congress had a hundred years earlier.

Eventually, more than $450 million worth of paper bills, known as "greenbacks" were printed and put into circulation by the government. And unlike the banknotes of private banks, which charged interest, this government money carried no interest charges.

Once again, the demands of war had ushered in an era of easier money.

BY: LINDA McQUAIG

FWIW....Take Care.

Heh heh. If you weren't before, you are now a Kitcoite! Seriously, that was a good post. Have you checked out Free Republic? Kindred spirits are more common than one might guess. http://www.freerepublic.com/

Heh heh. If you weren't before, you are now a Kitcoite! Seriously, that was a good post. Have you checked out Free Republic? Kindred spirits are more common than one might guess. http://www.freerepublic.com/

Thankyou Sir,

So in essence what you're saying is there ain't no such thing as a real, liquid market yet in palladium bars as most all the traded metal is "absorbed" by the industrial palladium sponge market?

Which might explain a lot of the illiquidity, even though it might be 5 to 10 times as common as platinum? One might also assume that buyers such as GM and Ford might also be hoarders as well, 'sponging' up all the available metal?

Farfel,

Your 17:43 post was very helpful, and your claim that any percentage of gold reserves will be trashed my anti-gold pundits has considerable merit. Your citing a CNBC commentator who argued that anything less than 50% gold reserves would be bearish indicates how very dangerous the paper advocates regard gold. I have never really been comfortable, however, with the conspiracy theory that gold prices ensue from market manipulators, particularly when the U.S. holds the worlds largest hoard of gold and Greenspan has, historically at least, a bias toward gold. But the case can be made, and reasonably so, that any challenge to the dollar must be suppressed. However, I believe it is becoming apparent that Asians and Europeans are beginning to recognize the degree to which dollar dominance has become a straightjacket. For this reason, I feel that it doesnt matter what percentage of gold the EMI will ultimately be used as a reserve. Whether the amount is 50 or 5 percent, the crucial thing for gold will be the ultimate success of the EMI! I do think they will announce a percentage of 15% or higher because it will prove effective propaganda for the Euros stability and legitimacy. But even a 5% gold reserve will not devastate gold if the EMI succeeds because the dollar will have a challenger, a powerful rival bond market will emerge, and the price of gold will rise from a deflationary dollar.

Old Gold,

If the EMI fails and the U.S. market does not prosper from massive foreign investment, then I do agree that gold would thrive in the absence of booming equity markets, though bonds and treasuries would remain an alternative.

Gulp to ya...Gulp...to ya!!!

I thought about you today when I read the May 1998 National Geographic magazine today. There was an article about changing climate and one about the dynamic changes of the US Pacific coastal mountain areas. IMHO man is a puny critter which can do little real change of the world around him which couldn't be erased in a second of geologic time.

Farfel: Regarding your 21:35 post of Kitco Barometer. You're either kidding or you have way too much free time.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980429/stillwater_1.html

re STIVX I'll look it up.

EB - A humorous, yet honorable, title. I accept with pride.

Auric - Thank you for the URL. Kindred spirits are hard to come by.

Caper - your "libration army," may I take point?

Chas - USASI ( United States of American Special Interest ) - I borrowed this name from another Kitcoite, don't remember who. Keep spreading the good word.

- c

This was the only article I've read recently which chilled me. The rest were all politics as usual variety, not mentioning at all the rise of viruluent racist socialism.

Thank you for another excellent link. Studio.r, this one is a corollary to yours re speculators vs. producers. Let's raise a toast to the producers.

http://www.islamic-finance.com/item1.htm

I do not drink milk...you know,
I drink vodka. Think about it...
Nothing smells better than dead body
of national socialist, yes?

You can relax on that score at least, the" New" German Constitution
written in 1955 when the German Govt regained control of their own country forbids any party that models itself on overly nationalistic or socialism. The "Greens" are basically a bunch of whacko tree huggers
and "enviromentalists" similar to the ALGORE types, thay haver never yet had more than about a 10% representation in the Bundestag and are not taken very seriously throughout Germany.

...what is the major difference between my little Kitco Barometer
and your charts?

If you think my Barometer is preposterous, then surely your charts are no less so.

Ultimately, as the old adage goes, "the proof is in the pudding."

My pudding is almost ready to be served...how's yours doing?

Thanks.

F*

Thanks for the post. Folks will sure pull some nasty tricks to get their hands on other people's gold. The important thing is to learn the history, so that we can recognise the tricks when we see them. To that end, you have been helpful on several occasions. Here's to honest living.

In his speech, entitled ``The Challenge of Success,'' Summers noted some parallels between the current boom and the Great Depression of the 1930s, and said prosperity without purpose may be ``hollow and short-lived.''

Enjoyed the message!!!!!

223 - I agree with your assertions concerning the insignificance of man on the global scale. Thank you for bring the issue up again. My concern does not lie with the overall fate of the Earth, in the future. I am more concerned about our furry, feathery, and scaly cousins who seem to get trampled on or extinct, now. I wish there was a way that we could co-inhabit the Earth without exploiting and taking ownership of everything we see. I wish we were able to better balance progress with quality of life. Read an article about cannabalism in North Korea a couple of weeks ago. Do political and economic conditions have to be so bad that there are no longer any species larger than your thumb left in a particular environment? How about Brazil - must we "pave our way to paradise?" I think government should spend more time focusing on quality of ALL life instead of the attempting to maximise the progress of man. I refer to this idea as "moral progress" or "responible progress."
- c

I called a west coast dealer today to order 30 kruggers, and he quoted me a spot price of $310.40 plus 3% + $321 each. Normally he charges spot plus 1%. When I questioned him, he said this was what he was now paying to wholesalers, and that they are charging this on both ends because they can't get inventory at current prices!. He is not a small time dealer and I've bought over $100K in gold from him in the past year, so he isn't trying to gouge me. He said that the only PM that the premium isn't way up on is junk silver.

Good news for gold investors - GO GOLD!

gulp...gulp...TEQUILA...Cuervo Gold of course, gulp to you ya...

U R now Captain-Cape Breton Highlanders-Wine makin' me talk-Methinks
u r mozel's brother-wanna hear more from u-time for the grunts to get back control. Am not a radical person by nature-however, spent 25 yrs
with our nation's federal police force & got squashed like a f'ing bug
when intellingence related material involved federal politicians. Clone-
u & my wine inspired me a leeeeeeetle beeeet. In the morn-I'll think-
did I really say that. Anyway, Ive recovered some of my gold losses today, another month or two or three, I think I'll be even. Cheers to
all-you've brought me back to reality - or did ya?????

I forgot to say it is also illegal in Germany to day to display or buy or sell any thing with a swastika on it. There is however a black market in "War Souveniers" but you dont want the KRIPO "Kriminalpolizi" to find it in your home or on your person. The present German government is very serious about it not gaining ground and getting into power again, every time one of those parties get exposure they are quickly arrested and broken up.

gold delivery notices are still climbing, 64 more contracts today are taking delivery. That is 442,600 ounces, comex will have to come up with at least 275,565 ounces ( 167,035 ounces in eligible stocks as of yesterday ) . I wonder if they will go to the open market? ( :^}

FWN: 132716 GMT


COMEX Delivery Notices for Today


-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD
ISSUED TODAY 184 0 64
SO FAR FOR April 5,789 71 4,426

End

Farfel: My puddin's doin' fine.

Curiously enough, that link I sent you awhile back came up on a different page. See the contents list in the left frame? Click on SPECULATION.

And now, goodnight.

Tolerant1 - glad to see you back. Going to paint that house! Have a young friend learning Photoshop with me who loves to paint female nudes. He's really good. Going to send him along to do your murals. L.

A camper in a National Forest in New Mexico found his family confronted by an attacking wolf within the past few days. Fortunately for him he had a shotgun and dispatched the wolf.
The wolf was one recently released in a nationally heralded pro-wolf program supported by Bruce Babbitt, Ted Turner ( who is gradually buying up the state ) , and other similar folk. They said that the wolves were really no threat to ranchers, and I guess they were right.

although you often receive no response, your posts on Comex inventories are extremely informative - thanks.
- c

I just got a flash alert from one of my newsletters. It stated that the Bank of Russia bought 666,000 ounces of gold in March, which subsequently increased their gold reserves by 4%. I wouldn't be surprised if China and Japan are accumulating gold also. Somebody bought the Belgium gold.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOU HAVE REACHED THE END OF THE INTERNET.
http://opaldata.com/the_end/index.html

Thanks, good evening...

Hope so

Mr. Mick ( mozel, all I can base my contentions on is.......... )
ID#345321:
Copyright  1998 Mr. Mick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
what I learned in law school. It wasn't a pretty picture. The history of
English judges shows that they were more concerned with land and how it
was sold, given away, and inherited than about anything else. This is
how "property" law developed and this is the basis for American property
law. And they weren't always interested in what was "right" or "fair".
Too often they were concerned with short-term expediency and long-term
political favor.
Your use of the term "scientific" is different than mine. Having a
chemistry/physics background, I define scientific "truth" as being
repeatable and verifiable through experimentation, no matter the locale
( at least on planet Earth ) . Truly gravity is uniformly the same on
the surface of this planet. The same cannot be said of law, thus the
term "scientific" cannot, in my vernacular, be applied to it.
On such matters we will have to disagree. Thanks for your input.

I do not place property in quotations and wonder that you do. I do not imagine there is anything reliable about a court of equity in which the judge's idea of "fair" or "right" is the basis for decision. The common-law was hard sometimes, but it was invariable and not subject to the personal preferences of the judge. In equity the court serves the conscience of the judge or the expediency of the regime; at common-law the judge and court serve the law.

What we agree on is that common-law is the dream of the common man. Just as freedom, security for self, family, and property, life in circumstances of dignity are dreams of the common man. The political and legal history of England prior to American Independence is the record of a struggle between the common man in his quest to realize his dreams and the feudal aristocracy which would deny them. America's founding documents were the intellectual product of the common-law side of that struggle. If you did not get that out of law school, you were cheated in your education.

Today as then, the power of logic and reason can be applied in common-law that serves the aspirations of the common man or in political law that projects the aims of the powerful. They can be dedicated to a deliberate search for truth and justice of common use and value or dedicated to self-serving justifications for the governing few. The King, the State, and the Corporation can only appear in court by attorney. The freeman of common-law can appear himself. And the lines of struggle in America today are drawn on this distinction. The attorney is the servant of his political masters. The attorney is the creature of political law.

Socialism is the political movement claiming authority from "Science". The rationalization and organization of human society by force according to scientific action is its goal. Usurpation of the role of definer of scientific action is its tactic. The word science and the word knowledge are synonomous. In the nineteenth century socialist intellectuals campaigned to make your definition of science the definition of it in the popular mind. If "science of demonstrable experiment" could be defined as the only or higher knowledge, the politics of Science would be defined as the politics of those in the know, the knowledgeable elite. Their successors are the promoters of the New World Order. In the United States the best known public argument in the socialist campaign was the travesty between Darrow, the socialist attorney, and Bryant, the populist politician, at the Scoops trial on the teaching of evolution theory in the schools. Darrow's implicit claim that "science of demonstrable experiment" is the only or highest knowledge is a claim of priesthood by an alien clan of priests that denies there can be moral science or moral knowledge. For a scientist to say so makes him the moral equivalent of a monkey even if he can demonstrate how to blow up the world with an atomic bomb. The similarities between mankind and the animals were noted throughout the centuries. The whole purpose of education was to raise a man above the beast level of being. It was only in the twentieth century that socialist science made it vogue to attempt to eliminate the distimction and to lower men to the level of beasts. The Animal Farm.

It is true, as you say, that gravity exists worldwide. So, also do people and the dreams of the common man. The devotion to and popularity of common-law in Hong Kong is the empirical evidence that the principles for resolving controversy between individuals discovered by common-law jurisprudence are of potential use and benefit to mankind like the principles of public sanitation and are not a mere cultural artifact.

Clone - so vote for a geologist.

223 - my point exactly, once you have an inkling of the power of mother earth you stand in complete awe, we humans are a grain of sand upon the beach of a distant shore.

There is no difference if you can quantify the Kitco reactions to objective numbers. You could graph them by volume and make buy stop orders. I don't want to get to tied up with this message but I read your messages daily and can't talk at work, but have interest in what you say as well as others on this site.

One more thing. For those of you in RYO, GET OUT NOW. The reason RYO hasn't got the loan is because the people currently holding RYO secondary bond notes ( the people that must approve the loan ) would lose out if they approved the loan and RYO went belly up. There may not enough money to cover their loan ( secondary loan, $175,000,000 ) and the new loan.

RYO is in defalt and if the people with the scondary loan call in the chips, it's over. The secondary bond holders have had over two weeks to approve this loan and every day that goes by is bad news for RYO.

Just got done checking The Privateer's Gold charts for the US$, Yen, D-Mark and Aussie$--and guess what? ALL FOUR CURRENCIES SAY WE HAVE A NEW GOLD BULL! The most bullish chart is--you guessed it? THE JAPANESE YEN! No wonder they's sellin' dollars and buyin' gold! Even the weakest chart--you guessed it!--the US$ is bullish having just broken out of and retested the long term trend line extending back over a year and a half! I look for gold to keep trending higher along the new uptrend line it is currently marking out and will buy more every time it touches that line and reverses higher! I will only sell when the trend line is broken to the downside and retested twice and confirmed to the downside. The charts are confirmin' what all of us here suspect--the bear market in gold is over and the NEW GOLD MARKET HAS BEGUN! Watch them shorts start runnin' for cover! And watch them greedy money managers and yuppies suddenly get gold fever when the price starts trending ever higher on the Nightly News! Cheese, I love it!

RYO closed at 1 3/16, +1/8, up 11.7%

Some time last week I recall hearing on the radio that there had been a concern about Nazis gaining support among Germans who were against EMU. I ran across the article I'd posted while looking up info to see if I coud pin down how much % gold backing the EMU might need.

During my own military experiance the worst bother in that part of the world were those ( agreeably pissant ) Greens, but in the previous generation in my family six of my uncles fought against Nazis and Japanese Imperialists. The thought that Nazis are on the rise again makes me tense, wondering if for the second time we'll end up having to go back over and bomb them back into the stone age?

"I guess they were right!" ;- ) I agree with you, the answers are not easy - for this one I'd have to say, "build a fence, and do not get rid of the shotgun." I'm a reluctant supporter of population control as well.
- c

Is RYO really a gold stock? I thought it was a proxy for DROOY? : ) But, of course you're right--just haven't paid any attention to RYO since they nearly filed for bankruptcy.

Again I dont think this is likely to happen the present constitution of the Federal Republic has many safeguards to prevent it and the movement is not popular at all with the majority of present day Germans. Of course
I have been away for nearly 10 years so I may be way out of touch and all wet. I have friends that are still there and e-mail me and they feel the same way I do.

Some very nice comments about gold on CNBC today. Waking up the masses maybe?

'so that we can recognise the "tricks" ' that is so true. Yes, the economic system in Canada and the USofA is but a "Trick", like a magic act eh!

History, is the study, ( Message ) to gain an insight. These Corporations are "Not" as smart as many believe. Power they have, yes. But, so did the same type in Russia, and we now know there is a limit to power eh!

The question is: Will the change be a positive for "We The People"

Thanks Take Care.

throughout the earth. In my geophysics class we were taught that there are variations in gravity due to irregularities in the composition and distribution of the crust of the earth. In life we learn that there are irregularities in the distribution of the 'salt of the earth'.

Golden Dreams! http://208.222.111.7/prices/

Ultimate Imbecile One Who pays for cable T.V The normal Imbecile One who believes what he reads on the net ---Your choice of brainwashing ---Its a free country Away to Wallstreet The New Mob Paradise ---But some carrot juice first.

BETTER GO BACK AND RE-READ ONCLE RAY'S POST ABOUT SELLING RYO NOW!!!! Sounds ominous to this cheesehead!

I am out of RYO about 2 months ago. Took the money and put it in some others which have done really well. The point is that a very valuable Kitco contributor indicated in his earlier posts ( I am sorry I don't have his handle at hand ) that technically the stock is acting strong although its fundamentals still remain weak. I just wanted to remind you of this in case you missed the post.

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 23:19
arden

Arden, can you explain what exactly are access volumes, I would appreciate it. As in:

COMEX Access Volumes for Gold, Silver & H.g.
Copper



-- GOLD --
For April 29
Contract Access Volume
June 98 218
Aug. 98 16
Dec. 98 1
TOTAL 235

-- SILVER --
For April 29
Contract Access Volume
May 98 52
June 98 1
July 98 172
TOTAL 225

-- H.G. COPPER --
For April 29
Contract Access Volume
May 98 6
July 98 18
Sept. 98 1
TOTAL 25

Thanks in advance.

All dead bodies smell pretty much the same, excepting the holy one in Brothers Karamazov and that of Lazarus.
As the socialists, national and other, are likely to unite in their opposition to men of my ilk, I don't much distinguish between them.
I thought about oris drinking vodka as you asked. I'm glad I was wrong about the milk.

A. Goose - my take on the delivery notices is not quite as bullish as yours. I think what happens is that if some guy holds his contract too long, thne he gets a delivery notice along with a margin call to put up all of the money ( I have had that happen to me ) . Then the guy says holy sh*t an sells his contract. or puts up the money. If he sells the contract, the position is closed, but the notice remains on record.

All of this said, more than 98 percent of the shorts of comex gold are not covered by eligible stocks. Has anyone asked what they quality of the remaining eligible stocks are? I mean, if someone had delivered a nice JM bar of 100 oz into comex and someone else had deposited a crude looking bar with funny shaped markings on it weighing almost 99 ozs, which bar would be the first one delivered to customers? Just asking, you know.

Just got a bid from a contractor for installing a new concrete driveway at my home. The guy wants $2,700.00 or about 9 whole ounces of gold! I casually offered him the choice and I thought he'd die from laughter right there on the spot! When I asked him how come he was laughin', guess what he told me? I only take REAL MONEY! Gott im Himmel, can you believe it? This guy thinks that a check for $2,700 US debt units is REAL MONEY and far more preferable to 9 ounces of SOLID GOLD! I predict that within a year, this guy will think about my offer of 9 ounces of gold and rue the day he laughed it to scorn! ( PS--NO WAY IN HELL I WOULD HAVE GIVEN HIM 9 OUNCES OF GOLD FOR A COUPLE OF TRUCKLOADS OF CONCRETE! )

Just what I needed I have had this gog long enough just gave it the boot.
Put in an oder to sell. THANK YOU.

I meant dog, woof woof.

While it may be true that humans have little ability to materially alter mother earth, we can however signifigantly alter the habitability of the earth for each other. Yes, in a million years ( nothing in geologic time ) our toxins will be filtered out and will decompose back to organic matter, but in the meantime I have to drink the water you are dumping your SH*T in!

I have devoted much time to my website which analyzes the U.S.Army decision to cap in place a highly toxic dump they created in the 1940's through 1960'S on the eroding shoreline of Lake Michigan. The Great Lakes represent 20% of the worlds source of fresh surface water and 95% of the United States.

The Army, U.S. EPA, and Illinois EPA ride roughshod over federal environmental laws and few question them. The EPA already warns against eating fish from the Great Lakes and the water is quickly becoming undrinkable yet environmentalists are cast as radicals.

The environment is important.

http://www.familyjeweler.com/fortweb.htm

Steve

p.s. Go Gold!

After glancing at many posters today I see many local Insane Asylum inmates have now connected to Kitco and some that post regularly seem to need treatment ---Away to the other cuckoo nest.

A. Goose - the Access market is an after hours electronic market. The volumes are normally small compared to the daytime market but the trades are the same. Some commodities Access markets are gaining in activity whuch eventually will guarantee that a real commodity trader will never sleep ( do they really? ) .

I'm pleased that for the most part, a gold bull is confirmed. It appears though that the bull in equities has a bit more to it though. I think OLDMAN is right that it might not end till the fall. If that's the case, we'd have to watch the gold stocks as well. They would fall with everything else, wouldn't they? Delphi seems to do alot of charting of the correlation of the DOW and POG. I planned on just holding my gold mining stocks for some years and just ride them up but it appears now that we'll have to keep an eye on the DOW also if POG and the DOW move together. I know this topic has been discussed on here before, but I'd appreciate any comments on the future outcome of a GOLD BULL coinciding with the last stage of the equity bull. I imagine that the gold mining stocks would take a hit too, but wouldn't they turn around quickly considering the introduction of the EURO will hurt the USDOLLAR and thus continue a rise in the POG?

Back from a week away: Wash DC, Atlanta, Virgina, New Orleans.

What can I say? My job is to sell project management software to corporations, consultancies, and gov't agencies. A common application is Y2K projects. So I ask questions, try to qualify my prospects.

I figured on a lot of folks waiting for the last minute, until their ankles are wet before moving to higher ground and throwing the sand bags along the soggy creek banks. That's human nature, and the nature of the situation: companies in the dirt rallying their meager armies of application developers, system administrators, and assorted IT types to gain a meager leg up over their enemies so they can live another day in Wall Street's good graces. This does not leave a lot of troops left hanging around to fix equipment that's working just fine right now. As the CFO used to remind me at forecast meetings as when it looked like my resolve as national sales manager might be wavering, "Your career is always just a quarter away."

That much I expect on these trips. But here is the new item I've learned: that fixing Y2K bugs is the lowliest, doggiest, most career stopping, asswipe loser project in the house. Everyone is busy trying to put as much distance as possible between themselves and the Y2K tedium of fixing OPG's, other people's bugs. This is more true with each passing day, as even the dumbest, tube-stunned coder sees ever more clearly that it's too late, that the project is not only tedium but tedium cum fiasco. Y2K is taking out the garbage, flossing your teeth, kissing your hairfaced aunt, washing the dog, doing your homework and missing your saturday night hour in the basement family room with your big-breasted girlfriend, waiting at the dentist, and striking out with the bases loaded, all rolled into one.

For the most part, this Y2K stuff is NOT getting done. It won't get done, but it will NOT be anyone's fault. It WAS the other guy. That's one reason why companies are hiring so many consultants for big $$$.

Two consultants, both well adjusted, not given to hyperbole, working for the IRS, speaking off the record: the IRS is f*cked. Their guess? The IRS will go by their records of your 1999 filing and ask you to pay the same again in 2000, 2001, and probably 2002, when maybe they get things working again.

Meet with a guy works for a 38,000 member professional association in Northern Virginia. "What are you doing about Y2K?" I ask. "See those piles of boxes from Compaq? That's our solution. We're throwing out our mainframes. Software's unfixable."

Visited to a DoD security agency. No I will not report on that one.

Spent a chilling afternoon with a telco. No one has fired the starting gun there on Y2K, at least in the division I visited. Because he who fires the gun must take up the race, and he who takes up the race accepts responsibility for the outcome of the race. So the shuffling, and the positioning, and the side stepping, and finger pointing. The job often falls to the least politically astute, the not brightest bulb on the porch. The jerkweed who stays in line while the line drops back. He's running Y2K right now. At a corporation near you.

-EJ

arden ( Mozel - no gravity isn't the same ) ID#201238:
throughout the earth. In my geophysics class we were taught that there
are variations in gravity due to irregularities in the composition and
distribution of the crust of the earth.

Yes. But people do not float anywhere on earth that I know of except in their imaginations.

In life we learn that there are
irregularities in the distribution of the 'salt of the earth'.

A truth that fits well with your observations on variations in gravity.

Golden Cheesehead - when my daughter was born in 1980 I in jest told the doctor that his bill was one ounce of gold - HE WANTED THE GOLD!, about
$700 or so then!

I'm glad that you are glad that I am not a milk drinker.

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 23:34
arden ( comex delivery notices ) ID#201238

I assume that he sells his contract back to comex? If not someone else would take delivery, yes.

a fellow "jims" was asking about the contracts and whether it was meaningful having all these contracts call for delivery in April. I couldn't answer, other than note that the contracts were on the books and I didn't see anyway of telling when or if they were filled or rolled ....

I don't have enough history or knowledge yet to see how to determine this information. BUT it would seem that most definitely comex stocks have fallen significantly over the last year ( noting the closings of several depositories ) and stocks are still low. My assumption is that people have been taking deliveries and the Swiss and other depositories didn't want to take a chance and get caught holding a bag with no gold in it.

BUT for your excellant question "I mean, if someone had delivered a nice JM bar of 100 oz into
comex and someone else had deposited a crude looking bar with funny shaped markings on it weighing almost 99 ozs,
which bar would be the first one delivered to customers? Just asking, you know."

No one has even mentioned getting delivery and what exactly what the quality of the bar was. One person mentioned that they were schedlue for delivery later in the year, but that is it.

I will ask and see if we can get updated news.

Mozel - no one floats, but some are pulled harder than others.

Japan Pessimistic Over Economy
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Japan-Economy-Mood.html

.....The King, the State, and the Corporation can only appear in court by attorney. The freeman of common-law can appear himself. And the lines of struggle in America today are drawn on this distinction. The attorney is the servant of his political masters. The attorney is the creature of political law...........

mozel I like that, a Corporation is an artificial being, and is made whole, by the presence of a lawyer/attorney. Freemen, can appear, but, likely will be run off, by the court system eh!

Thanks Take care

In contrast to the poster that interprets some available fundamentals,as
with all fundamentals, they are usally only part of a total picture available, and often the interpretations can go either way. That's life.
Now for the little guys, like myself, who don't have all of the facts
always at hand, it is nice to be able to look at a little longer term
chart and see what it tells. ie-
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx
What I see here, is that smart money ( volume at a higher level ) back
in early '96, when gold was above $400 was selling. Now check the volume
since end of '97 up until the present and what do you see? Yes heavy
accumulation, relatively speaking, of course, and as an extra added
bonus the MACD looks positive and has turned up.
I,if I were advising, would say hold or accumulate this baby, wouldn't you???

Let me guess! You didn't have an ounce to give him! I know I didn't have any in 1980! Sold it all when gold was at $500 like a fool! Course I bought it at $315. Gott im Himmel! 18 years and gold is cheaper TODAY than when I bought it 18 years ago! Wait till gold makes up for all that lost time and opportunity cost in THE NEW GOLD MARKET! What a bargain gold is at any price in today's inflated dollar economy! What else do you know is cheaper today than it was 18 years ago unless it be computer related?

The wolf was one recently released in a nationally heralded pro-wolf program supported by Bruce Babbitt, Ted Turner ( who is gradually buying up the state ) , and other similar folk. They said that the wolves were really no threat to ranchers, and I guess they were right.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Perhaps off topic, getting some electronics packed and shipped
in a Montana Mailbox, Etc-- coupla local yokels yakking, the
one just back from fixing an electric fence at Turner's spread
commenting how his buffalo trample down the stream bank and
muddy the water worse than any cattle he's seen ( local ranching
as regards some new stream ordinances in a bit of a rankle
I gathered. )

Who put the quarter in me...vocal enviro Ted Danson ( Cheers )
...channel surfing onto Rich & Famous for a looksie at his
consumptious Colorado spread...who picked Mary Tyler Moore
as spokeperson for the cruel testing of warm fuzzies...
as lifelong severe diabetic w/needleworks...where insulin came from...

A. Goose - there are only two ways to create a contract on comex. First is a 'hedger' who has the gold and desires to sell, second is a paper short. In one case the gold could be delivered, in the other, it is a bet, no different than the race track or Las Vegas. In the case of the hedger, he can deliver the gold or buy back his contract and resell later. ( All of this 'spot deferred stuff' ) . In the case of the speculator they have to cover their paper unless some SOB wants the real stuff! Oh sheiss!

banned get rich quick schemes. How will they ever catch up to us?