Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:00 - ID#201238)
Gott im Himmel!
Herr Cheesehead - actually I could have had gold to give him! At that time I was CEO of a producing gold company, but the gold was not mine, it belonged to the stockholders!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:01 - ID#248180)
@G/Cheesehead & Cement/9oz Gold
With respect to the hard working concrete contractor and his refusal of the gold offered. He is not stupid. He probably is a part of the third or fourth generation of Westerners that have been trained into thinking that gold is of little use in commercial transactions. He is correct paper currency is fast and convenient. Paper currency will allow him to take home all of his family requirements of food, shelter, and warmth. He cannot be considered unsmart. Did you offer him gold coins, possibly in small sizes? Small coins would have possibly meant something to him. Did you take the opportunity of making him a gold-bug convert? I think not. You could have paid him part cash/cheque and a few coins. You would have earned a friend for life.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:01 - ID#413109)
crazytimes ( question to all...... ) ID#342376:---------
Fully agree to buy now and hold for the long term- several years.
However there will be swings, possibly large in magnitude, which
might be played prudently, like shorting against the box, or taking
partial profits. These swings, which I refer to should be a year or
two in size, not the weekly or monthly kind. I believe, based on my
long term work that you may see some nice gains at the early part of
next year or in 2 years from now, all depending on how this baby rises.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:02 - ID#410215)
..... Gold and ostriches..... er .... I mean EMU .....

Ask yourselves one question:

A member nation contributes part of its gold reserves to the ECB.

The final number will be 15%.

This would seems to free up a lot of gold for lease, yes?

Why do you think Germany decided to begin leasing gold last year for the first time ever?

OK, two questions.

Never mind, this is a transparent and not very skillful attempt to put a negative spin on gold. To convince the collected Kitco souls that gold is worthless. I will continue this psychological subterfuge until all here throw their gold in the street. My aim is to destroy the viability of gold as anything but pretty cool stuff to make rings out of. It is my belief that my constant running down of our favored lass will affect the global gold market. The trillions of investment dollars represented by the readers of this site will flee from gold like it was a stink beetle.

Or perhaps, as some have suggested, The trillions of investment dollars represented by the readers of this site, will pour into gold and cause it to go to thirty grand.

A small voice in my ear says though, we are none of us as big or importantant as we think we are, and the collected wealth here, poured all into gold tomorrow, would not move it a buck. With all the talk arround here about the massive size of the gold market, these same folks think we could move it.

I just wish it would go up and be done with it. I will make a fortune. When silver moves, people call, when platinum moves, less people call, when gold moves ( significantly ) everybody calls. A roaring bull in gold is the dream of all metals traders.

This said, the EMU smells bad for gold.

Wait and see.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:03 - ID#284255)
EJ - your post speaks volumes
A small boy asks his Dad, What is politics?" Dad says, "Well son, let me
try to explain it this way: I'm the breadwinner of the family, so let's
call me Capitalism. Your Mom, she's the administrator of the money, so
we'll call her the Government. We're here to take care of your needs, so
we'll call you the People. The nanny, we'll consider her the Working
Class. And your baby brother, we'll call him the Future. Now, think
about that and see if that makes sense." So the the little boy goes off
to bed thinking about what Dad has said. Later that night, he hears his
baby brother crying, so he gets up to check on him. He finds that the
baby has severely soiled his diaper. So the little boy goes to his
parents' room and finds his mother sound asleep. Not wanting to wake
her, he goes to the nanny's room. Finding the door locked, he peeks in
the keyhole and sees his father in bed with the nanny. He gives up and
goes back to bed. The next morning, the little boy says to his father,
"Dad, I think I understand the concept of politics now." The father
says, "Good, son, tell me in your own words what you think politics is
all about". The little boy replies, "Well, while Capitalism is screwing
the Working Class, the Government is sound asleep, the People are
being ignored and the Future is in Deep Shit."
A $50 Billion 'Bug'
Fed Official: Year 2000 Computer Fix Could Slow Economy

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:04 - ID#57232)
My last post for the night
crazytimes: I'll give you my version of the truth about gold stocks and general equities.

First, gold stock investments are paper investments, subject to the same weaknesses as regular equities. Admittedly that paper is of hard assets, but that does not prevent the excesses of human nature. For example, during a crashing market liquidity panic, all stocks will fall, even gold stocks, and even when gold bullion is going up in price. During margin calls, who cares whether you sell precious metals equities or other equities? Of course, when cooler heads prevail again, gold equities may start back up faster that other equities when the value of precious metals is recognized.

Secondly, gold bullion prices may actually go down during a financial crisis, the most recent example being the Oct 97 financial crisis in SEAsia. Gold bullion only goes up in the country having the currency collapse, and may drop considerably elsewhere if gold is sold during a fire sale to salvage a currency.

That is the bad news, and it certainly indicates why buying and forgetting gold stocks is a bad idea. You want to avoid investing in any paper during a market crash.

What is the good news? Gold stocks ( as you probably know ) do about 3x better than gold bullion during a bull gold market. Also after a stock market crash, precious metals stocks may be one of the few stocks that do well. That is where gold investment offers the greatest and safest yield. Right now, gold/gold equities investment includes the special risk that the Gold bug Tsunami might break with us gold bugs aboard. I plan to stay aboard, and hope to get off before it chrashes. Might get a 100% profit.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:05 - ID#190411)
Thank's again, and again for your posts. There was a question earlier about collecting posts from SDRer.
That certainly is a worthy undertaking to chronicle the change from fiat money to honest money.
Your lucid explications on THE LAW, as we of the remnant advocates of Natural law, and common law, have held as our ideal political system, also needs to be indexed.
While what Mr. Another says about POG is informative and provoking, what you have to say cuts to the core of the old idea of Americanism. If we held to these Ideas that you exposit, there wouldn't be much point to the worries about currencies,POG,etc.
Alas, are there not enough honest men to resurrect the Old Liberty?
I would like to have a compilation of your contributions for the education of my daughters.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:07 - ID#210114)
Cutting their own throats
If the central banks stopped lending and selling, and the gold producers stopped hedging, we would have a roaring bull within 6 to 12 months ( IMVHO ) .

It seems to me that they are cutting their own throats.

Doesn't make much sense to me.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:08 - ID#342376)
@ Reify and EJ
Reify- It does seem the best to buy and hold, sepecially in light of EJ's post about Y2K and the IRS. Can you imagine paying incredible amounts of capital gains taxes from possible thousand percent gains on Gold Mining Stocks in 1999 and THEN pay the same amount in 2000 and 2001? No matter where you stand this Y2K stuff is going to throw us all for a loop. You also need to think about everyone selling their equities before 2000. YYYYYUUUUUUKKKKKKKK!!!! WHAT A MESS!!!!!!!!!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:11 - ID#431263)
Funniest damn post I have ever seen! LOFL to death! And how true! That is one joke I plan on keepin' in front of me PERMANENTLY! Danke sehr mein Herr Share!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:13 - ID#242258)
"Why do you think Germans desided to lease their gold...?"

I recall they said to get some cash to pay storage charges.
You got alternative scenario? Any thoughts?
Would appreciate your opinion regarding this German move...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:14 - ID#153102)
@6Pak @oris @arden @Environmentalism
@6Pak We shall see.

@oris The vodka gimlet also makes me glad as a substitute for untaxed whiskey when it is not available.

@arden I think science has yet to discover why gravity increases with time on earth, too.

When everything is owned by someone, when everything is someone's private property, everything will have a caretaker and protector. Under Feudal Law the fish and fowl and wild things belonged to the King. So, misguided judges in America decided here they would belong to the State. The State is a poor caretaker. There is no substitute for the caretaking of a private owner of something.

At common-law, an activity on an adjacent property that posed a danger to the health, safety, peace and quiet, comfort, or life of inhabitants of adjoining property could be enjoined and forced to move. This was the law of nuisances and it served well for centuries. But, with zoning law, political law replaced it and a man was helpless to stop a nuisance next door if the nuisance had more political power. So we have gone backwards into environmental political law.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:14 - ID#284255)
Email chatter (g)
Your number one item to buy for the Y2K is a TOILET PLUNGER. Don't laugh mate! Our washing machines have bloody chips in them. Never thought I would be back to the days of doing laundry with a bucket and toilet plunger. Dem were the days on a boat, doing the old toilet plunger routine on the dock or wherever I could put m'bucket, then hanging up the laundry on the life lines. I had a 60 ft Cat, so I had 120 ft of clothes line. Hey, I even have a picture to prove it. ( :- ) )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:16 - ID#342376)
So in light of my last two posts.....
I think I'll buy physical gold, hold onto it, and become a paperboy in 1999.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:18 - ID#242258)
It really makes no sense, no doubt about it.
But what if CBs know that their "loss"
is temporary? Then it makes sense, yes?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:19 - ID#267344)
mozel - preservation is not a step backwards...
it is the next step towards civilization
- c

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:20 - ID#201238)
so maybe I'm stupid or what?
RJ - so why is the fact that the EMU will have some sort of gold backing BAD? It seems to me that as a looong time Kitco poster that we were all looking for some sort of paper backed by gold. So now, we have this great debate about how much gold is going to back the EMU? Haven't we already found the truth? SOME gold is going to back the paper of SOME very large group. Haven't we seen through the LMBA that gold is already a world currency? Am I missing something, or what?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:20 - ID#190411)
The big flame of the past couple of days was not nearly as informative as your last post tonight. You are more in your element ( Pt? ) tonight.
May all metals be volatile for you.
I also used to find astrophysics just about the most intrigueing thing around.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:22 - ID#431263)
You REALLY think this guy would waste his precious time listenin' to me trying to explain to him why he should weigh the advantages/disadvantages of holdin' a few golden coins compared to a chack for REAL MONEY? LOFL all the way to me safety deposit box!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:25 - ID#410215)
..... Got a request to repost this .....

A paper clip spontaneously changes into a coat hanger due to the non-zero probability that it will happen. It is said that anything not forbidden by quantum theory, is required. Ive often suspected paper clips of this duality, but Hiesenburg also showed us all that the paper clip can just as easily, as an infant coat hanger created from the ether, change back into a paper clip. The only evidence we have of this behavior is that we just know it has to happen, much like many just know that gold will go to $500.

Feynman diagrams often resembled Rorschach tests, but the diagrams themselves depicted the "sum over histories", in which any particle takes not one path in a journey, but all possible paths. This paradox has been demonstrated in the experiment of the box with two slits. This experiment proved that a single particle - a photon, lets say - travels trough two slits in a barrier at the same time, and upon reaching a detector is shown to interfere with itself as if it were a wave and not a particle. This has been widely understood to be proof, written into the fabric of space time, that even particles masturbate. Whether or not they feel guilt about this behavior is still unknown.

The aforementioned box with two slits should not be confused with the famous box in which Schroedingers unfortunate cat waits for his fate. Of course in this thought experiment, the cat is less alive or dead than both alive and dead. This holds true until an observer collapses the wave form and a particular history is chosen. Nowhere in discussions of this sad cat has any mention been made that the cat is also an observer and would thus seal its own fate.

Had this cat lived through the diabolical machinations of physicists, with far too much space-time on their hands, it would undoubtedly give birth to Schroedingers kittens. Yes, the cat in the box is a female, actually it used to be a paper clip but thats all in the sum over histories now.

Schroedingers kittens are treated with much the same disrespect as their wiry mother, far beyond the assistance or rescue of Bob Barker. These unfortunates are each placed in there own death/life duality box. Each box is rigged to kill these poor cats should a particle measure a certain spin. The reason for two kitties is that, rather than a single particle, a pair of particles, created from a single event, will cause the ax to fall onto one of our fluffy friends.

When two particles a created from a single event, the sum of their "spin" properties must always add to zero. We know the any particle does not "choose" a past until observed, thus, if we observed one particle to have a certain spin, the other particle must then assume a history of the offsetting spin, always obeying Newtons law of conservation of energy, creating a net sum of zero.

We now place these two kitties in separate space crafts, connected by a tubular umbilical. The event transpires to create two particles which promptly speed toward their respective kittens. The umbilical is now severed, using a chain saw which spontaneously sprang into being as a side effect of the improbable event of a paper clip choosing the coat hanger lifestyle. These craft speed apart at a significant fraction of the speed of light until, several years later, they are now 1 light year apart. The kittens have survived on strict rations of Meow Mix of which these precocious little kitties have asked for by name.

We know that if a particle has X spin, it will break a vile of poison in the box and a kitten will die. We also know that should the particle be measured to have Y spin, the vial will not break, and the kittens will grow to become cats and therefore graduate to the even more frightening experiments of the type visited on their poor mother. We also know that if we measure one of these related particles to have a certain spin, this will collapse the wave form of both particles, which will then assume the only histories available to them, that of an opposite of the other particle and thus obeying the law of conservation of energy.

When we then open the spacecraft of kitty one, we will observe if the fearless feline is alive or dead, always remembering that until the act of observation, the observed particle will not assume any history, preferring its own "sum over histories" until it actually has to choose one. This phenomenon is much like the Clinton administration, which will not take a position on any issue until the latest polls are in.

Let us say that we have opened the space craft and observed the particle to have a spin of Y. Like flipping a coin, the chances that the particle will assume a spin of Y is exactly 50%. We now find a live, fluffy kitty vehemently asking for more Meow Mix by name. We know that the particle did not assume the Y spin until observed and, thus, the kittens fate was not decided until the actual observation, exactly the same as its hapless mother.

Remembering the law of conservation of energy, as soon as we observe the particle of kitty one, the particle of kitty two must then, immediately, assume the history of a particle of spin X. The crucial distinction here is the each particle assumes a particular history only after the act of observation. Kitty one, was always alive, as kitty two was always dead, but until the observation, neither kitten was alive or dead. They existed in a juxtaposed position of life and death. If we could travel back in time and repeat this observation, again and again, for a hundred times, we would find 50 live kittens and 50 dead as a doornail kitties.

When we discover kitty one to be alive, and knowing that the second particle must assume an opposite history, we can only conclude that K2 was immediately killed only upon the observation of K1. How can this be? The kitties are now 1 light year apart! Relativity tells us that nothing travels faster that the speed of light and that for a photon of light, time stands still and has no meaning. Yet as soon as we observe our kitten to be alive or dead, K2 must immediately, without the slightest pause, assume the opposite. The important thing to keep in mind, is that once a history is assumed, it has always been that way. If K1 is alive, K2 has always been dead although this history was not chosen until we observed the results.

Einstein called this instantaneous transfer of information "spooky action at a distance" and was one of the primary reasons that he rejected quantum theory for most of his life, even thought he was instrumental in its discovery. The accepted term today is "non locality" or, as some prefer, poppycock.

This very oversimplified explanation of the "sum over histories" has been made to offer consolation to all those despairing to gold market today. Content yourselves to know that, while gold is in the doldrums here, in another history, gold is soaring.

For those of you bored to tears by this post, realize, that in another history, I spent the last several hundred words extolling the virtues and imminent rise of gold.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:34 - ID#242258)
You said "SOME very large group...". I would add "...of
countries with still different political and economic

Our car driver ( Belgian guy of aprox.50 from Bekaert Co. ) ,
who delived us from Germany to Belgium with an average speed
of 100 miles/hour, when asked ( by me ) about EURO, said:
"I don't really know, but I want it ( Euro ) to be strong."
He meant that Belg.Frank is good enough money for him, and
if it is replaced by Euro, he wants to be sure it's still
good enough money...

You are not stupid.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:35 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the words of appreciation. Old Liberty has many friends though not many in favor today. But, the world turns.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:35 - ID#431263)
DOWN alomst 2%!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:36 - ID#256250)
comex stocks...
yesterday eligible silver stocks were 57,547,485, a nice drop!

while comex gold stocks seem to be frozen at current levels. Wonder if they are waiting for some excitment in the near term? ( : ) }

COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

477,406 0 0 0 0 477,406
167,035 0 0 0 0 167,035
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 36,060,276
-746,935 4,441,072 52,359,478
-746,935 -4,441,072 88,419,754


yesterday eligible silver stocks were 57,547,485, a nice drop!



Gold 30,000
Silver 19,000
H.G. Copper 15,000

Goodnight all, Thanks Arden. I like the analogy, comex is a gaming center and the odds have been in favor of the house ... UNTIL recently that is. To many people need the commodity and their taking delivery is causing a whole new set of problems for comex and the USG.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:41 - ID#255151)
EJ, sharefin

EJ--Thanks for the report from the trenches. That is very disheartening. sharefinn--EJ's report lends support to the articles that you regularly post. It also confirms what Miro has said. You're right, mate. This is going to be ugly.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:41 - ID#410215)
..... Vodka - strait .....

Oris -

The lease of 330 tons last year for forward sales should completely pay for storage through the end of July. After that they must raise more cash or distribute it all to citizens for safekeeping in their own domiciles.

The sound you hear is the entire Kitco group moving to Germany.



You drink your vodka at room temperature, or ice cold?

Your answer to this question will determine my final and ultimate opinion of you.

I pray you are a civilized being and give the only answer there is to give. ( within the limits set by Max Planck )

I will start a poll on Kitco before you answer.

Oris: Heathen or Gentleman?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:47 - ID#153102)
Since you apparently have not understood the superiority of private ownership to public ownership as a means of preservation of all things and as the sine qua non of individual liberty and civilization, you are hereby sentenced to deposit your gold in the nearest federal reserve depository and to slave labor to pay social-environmnental security contributions for all your days.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:51 - ID#252127)
Hey RJ, how do you explain these CB loses? $100 to $150 billion big ones

Big deal they make some money leasing it and lose billions on their gold stocks. I bet you can't answer that one, so why try?
Anyway, thanks for piping F* down, perhaps "The Farfelian Papers" will improve as a result.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:53 - ID#342376)
According to David Bohm, the kitties are actually one in the same which is why there is "non-locality". I think he calles it the "implicate order". It's one of two levels of being ( the other being explicate order ) where there is only one. No space, no time. The explicate order is the "unfolding" of the implicate order. The same in Chinese Thought as YIN and YANG. Yin being implicate, yang being explicate. OR for computer nuts, everything boils down to 0's and 1's.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:55 - ID#290118)
Why Gold? Hold the tomatoes please!
Lurker coming out of the closet,

and a visitor from K2.

I agree Auric and F*

There is much to be learned

from the experience and wisdom here.

And enough humor and give 'n take

to spice up occasional breaks from gold analysis.

Thank you!

Question -

If we ( ever ) approach a world currency "system"

and all exchanges are "internal" to the system.

with Dollars, Euros, Yen or some other currency.

Why would a CB need gold for reserves or foreign exchange

when their are no "foreigners" ( currency wise )

to exchange with?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 00:55 - ID#286230)
Juniors PiZZ in their own soup

Cash-short gold miners pan in equities

The Financial Post
Cash-starved intermediate gold producers are taking advantage of the recent rebound in
bullion prices to tap receptive equity markets with a flood of new issues.
Investors have been hesitant to venture into gold since the Bre-X Minerals Ltd. fraud came to
light a year ago. Compounding matters is the dramatic fall in its price to a low of US$278.15 an
ounce Jan. 12.
But with bullion recovering by 12% since, bringing gold
shares along for the ride, five producers have announced
public share offerings in the past week. The latest is Kinross
Gold Corp., which said yesterday it plans to float a
$100-million equity issue in the second half of the year.
Gold added another US$2.20 to close at US$310.50 an
ounce in New York yesterday, pushing the Toronto Stock
Exchange gold and precious metals subindex up 2.1% to
7698.26. That's up 48% from a 52-week low of 5185.18 on
Dec. 9.
"These companies have been in the desert for a long time,"
said John Ing, gold analyst at Maison Placements Inc. "At the
first sight of water, they satiate themselves."
Gold companies, especially those under the 500,000-ounce
annual production threshold, need money for expansion and
exploration, said Ing.
But he thinks the recent rush of financings by a few mid-sized producers is premature and
could stall or reverse the recent recovery in gold and gold issues.
In the past week, Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Bema Gold Corp., Vengold Inc. and Iamgold Corp.
have announced plans to issue new shares.
Agnico has entered into a bought deal underwriting agreement to sell 9.3 million common
shares at $10.75 each, for net proceeds of $100 million.
The firm will use the cash to complete development and expansion of its LaRonde mine in
Quebec, said Larry Strauss, senior mining analyst at Canaccord Capital Corp.
The timing is good for Agnico because the issue price is 73% higher than a Nov. 26 low of
Vancouver-based Bema said it will issue eight million common shares at $3.75 each. The deal
is expected to close in mid-May and the $30 million garnered will go to advance exploration in
the company's Latin American projects.
Investors appear receptive to these issues.
For example, Iamgold said April 23 it had completed the sale of 9.3 million shares at $5.40
each for proceeds of $50 million.
And because of strong demand, Vengold was able to increase its share offering by 10% to 25
million shares, at $1.75 each, for proceeds of $43.8 million. It will use the proceeds to almost
double its stake in its Lihir gold mine, said Strauss.
"These issues allow investors to participate in good assets and potential continued upside if
gold rallies further," he said.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:01 - ID#252127)
Yeh thay can always print up $100 to $150 billion and say

It was based on the productive capacity of the people, of whom they are screwing bigtime.
AG and BR can say there is no inflation, cause the Bubba controled Agencies said so and Not to Worry.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:01 - ID#153102)
@RJ Logic
RJ says CB have much gold to sell after Euro. RJ says gold worthless.

Mozel says why CB stop selling gold at all ? Why is any gold in CB vaults ? Why did LBMA find it necessary to allow forward sale contracts from mines to be traded as Gold ? Why have CB not already moved all CB gold into marketplace ?

China should call RJ. He will explain how foolish they were to buy 167 tons of gold. RJ, Chinese Premier on phone. Explain world of money to him.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:02 - ID#355361)
crazytimes re David Bohm
I read this fascinating theory re implicate vs explicate order in "The Dancing Wu Li Masters"; also heard Bohm himself with Krishnamurti. Interesting that the gold discussion group would lead to these primary concepts in physics and East-West synchronicities...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:05 - ID#431263)
Especially liked the last paragraph of your post dealing with VENGOLD'S selling 25 million shares to PDG for $43.8 million to DOUBLE its 10.3% stake in LIHIR allowing gold investors to participate in good assets with
a lot of upside should gold continue to rise. Thanks for posting it!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:05 - ID#410215)
..... ??? .....

Spock -

Your question about forward sales is an oft repeated one.

It does seem as if producers do themselves harm.

What then is the function of futures markets?

Every contract is a forward sale.

In all commodities and all currencies.

Forward sales is a producer's only protection against unprofitable prices. This limits profits, but insures survival.

As for the motive of the CBs. I will concede there is a vested interest in keeping gold down, to give the appearance of stable currencies. This must be factored into their reasoning.

The last two years were a frenzy of sales, so much so that you could fairly hear the CBs fretting over who would sell next and don't you all think we should grab this price before one neighbor or the next does it first and drives OUR price down. No, we must sell today.

The EMU will not be bad for gold long term. I fear that, freed from pressures to keep their gold in the vaults, some nations would increase leasing. It could easily go the other way but we are in uncharted territory. Since the trend has been for CBs to put their gold on a more paying basis, I tend to believe they will follow the same path as before. A leopard changing spots, yes? Remember, the public at large has very little understanding of leasing and forward sales. They will not find this alarming.

This said, I simply am not sure where it will lead.. If it turns out that I am wrong about this, I will post it publicly. If I am right about this, I will post it ten times publicly.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:07 - ID#201238)
Squirrel - we already have a world currency sytem. Its called GOLD. Gold is the real money. We have seen the exposure of gold on the LMBA market. The EMU is only trying to tie it to paper. Gold is the medium for exchange throughout the world. The paper hangers have just to catch up with it, that is why the EMU is tied to gold and IT REALLY DOSEN'T MATTER HOW MUCH! Gold is the denominator.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:10 - ID#342376)
@ IV
Kitco is a unique place, isn't it?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:10 - ID#242258)
RJ, that is quite a challenge for me to answer about
vodka drinking temperature in just a few words.
However, I will be honest with you- each vodka has its own
optimal temperature range for the best "taste".
"Taste" is also relative criteria for
vodka, it is commonly recognized that vodka does not have
any taste, like, for example, brandy. In general, most
Russian-made vodkas should be chilled before you can enjoy
the "taste", to +4C. However, Black-n-White Smirnoff,
made in Russia, is so good, that I drink it only at room
temperature for maximum enjoyment. I have nothing against
ice-cold vodkas, but in some cases it kills "taste" so much,
that there is no fun in drinking at all. In general, the rule
is: low-quality vodkas like Popov or Nikolai require more
freezing and high-quality vodkas like Black-n-White Smirnoff
are the best at room temperature. Another rule - only
"straight" and "no ice". There is also certain correlation
between recommended vodka drinking temperature and kind of
food you gonna eat with your drink...

What is Heathen? Sorry, do not know this word.

PH in LA
(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:12 - ID#225408)
As western civilization awaits the coming weekend's Euro announcement with brated beath and speculates on its relationship to gold we can consider two interelated facts:

1. The Europeans have historically struggled with cultural differences while maintaining their international commerce. These differences will in all likelyhood not disappear with the adoption of a unified currency.

2. To the extent that said unified currency relates directly to gold, cultural differences when related to commerce can be expected to be minimized. It has worked for centuries. Not all the Europeans are stupid. It would be a good bet that they will be keeping this in mind while krafting their new currency.

15% backing? ( Whatever that is! ) No convertibility? All the rest of the gold available for sale and/or lease? Does RJ really believe this?

Just because F* has chosen the path of irrationality to save Western Civilization with propaganda and positive spin doctoring, doesn't mean that his intellectually bankrupt stance needs counterbalancing with an equal but opposite spin. Rationality itself would seem the finer foil.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:13 - ID#31868)
oris - re: that other guy
You realize of course he is baiting you. I say oris is a free man.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:15 - ID#401460)
Squirrel (Why Gold?)

So they can manipulate it and rip us off, Gold is a control vehicle of the power elite. IMHO


(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:20 - ID#431263)
That's just what the power elite WANTS you to believe, mein Herr! The time is almost here when GOLD itself will rise up and take control even of them! Please don't succumb to the politics of cynicism! STAY THE COURSE, mein Herr!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:21 - ID#242258)
Thanks for your understanding.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:25 - ID#401460)

April 30, 1998
01:21AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close

I am in for the full trip. So let her RIP!!


(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:25 - ID#210235)
Oris is brother. No other words need apply.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:25 - ID#210235)
Oris is brother. No other words need apply.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:29 - ID#410215)
..... JJ is out there .....

A couple of weeks ago, JJ the whale was released back into the California coastal waters. Washed up on shore a few miles from here a year and a half ago, JJ was healed and raised at Sea World, San Diego. This is the first time a California Gray whale has ever been raised in captivity. Then, after enormous expense, they let him go. Sometimes I am proud to be human. I wrote the following in tribute.

The Deep

I dive today a whole new world

Ocean closes in as green foam swirls

Weightless again my fins unfurl

I dive today in The Deep

Cradle me and comfort me

So much space inside and around me

Longs to be filled as I long to be

I dive alone today in The Deep

Body memories everywhere calling

Blue ecstasies liquid home sprawling

All the world's waters borne of sea falling

I sing today in The Deep

Hope finds me searching as hope finds my ear

It feels as home has found me near

I sink once again and listen to hear

There are friends out there in The Deep.

Murky soundings through dim depths I find

Greetings returned from more of my kind

Invited to join a family now mine

I dive swiftly today in The Deep.

I spiral upward today through cold liquid blue

My breathing heart soars as I breach through

A thunderous splash just something I do

And God smiles on the face of The Deep

J J 4/98

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:31 - ID#153102)
The fact which contradicts the proposition that gold is the control vehicle of the power elite is that they must control it. The power of gold to curtail the power of the elite must, like the dormant longing for liberty in the hearts of all mankind, be ever watched, ever controlled, lest it break it bonds and distribute power more equally.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:38 - ID#153102)
@Sortof Ode To JJ
Out of the Deep and into the can
With Charlotte the Pig
Then, out of the can and into the cat
Or dog.
A dead whale floats just like a dead log.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:38 - ID#31868)
evening all
RJ - nice poem - later folks...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:39 - ID#410215)
..... What's a Gentleman, anyway? .....

Oris -

You, above all, are not the below.

Heathen = One who is regarded as irreligious, uncivilized, or unenlightened.

Ever hear of Belvedere? Comes out of Poland and is pretty damn tasty.

Yes, there is a taste.



(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:47 - ID#290118)
Why gold? Hold the Tomatoes!
Arden - Please pardon my monetary naivete.
As I understand it a world currency needs to be transferable anywhere anytime via digital zap or paper snail mail in addition to physical shipment. A local barter exchange or a CB may have a gold reserve to back its e-gold, script, or intermember transfers. But at some point the grunts moving the stuff from lockbox A to lockbox B and back again find out its easier to change numbers on a ledger or in an e-account. Then they may jump to the conclusion that they don't need the physical stuff at all except for occasional transfers out of their "system", i.e. foreign exchange. They can sell or lease the physical and turn their warehouse into a u-stor-it.
My point is.
If there comes to be one paper or cyber currency then there will be no "foreign exchange". All the physical gold can be leased or sold. Even though gold is still the medium for exchange it is represented only as paper or electronic ciphers. Why have the real stuff except for a thin yellow facade to placate those who need to see the yellow glint once in a while.
Is this where the CBs are heading?
I for one would prefer a medium of exchange that can be privately passed hand to hand and stored in one's pocket. But that is inconvenient when I mail order or e-order stuff. So I'm back to using cybermoney or cybergold.
How can gold be returned to daily use as a monetary standard?
How can we get gold and silver coins back in everybody's pockets and used enough that the coins I've squirreled away could be spendable down at the local grocery store without intervening cross-country gold shipments and transfers of cybermoney?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:52 - ID#210235)
And thanks, RJ for the images. Goin' swimming my my dreams tonight.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:55 - ID#153102)
That's what checks were invented for.
Deposit your gold. Write a check. The banks or clearing houses handle the clearing function.
Gold and silver coin will return when the bills of credit emitted by the Federal Reserve at the direction of Congress are no longer worth the paper they are printed on and not worth a Continental.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 01:59 - ID#401460)

I agree and I think we are starting to see the affects of what you say.

The more we witness, the more fragmented the control appears to be.

In a way, Gold is the vehicle of accountability.



(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:01 - ID#410215)
..... Jack and Mozel .....

Jack -

Oris the room temperature connoisseur has answered your question.

They sell today, and buy back tomorrow, yes?

CBs are traders like anyone else.

Only their pockets are bottomless.

Seems best to go the direction they are going, yes?

Follow the big money.


Mozel -

Gold is not worthless. It is worth exactly $310 per ounce.

Seems though that every month that goes by

Gold is worth less.

Except the last.

We will see if it holds.

Spoke with the Chinese Premier on the phone. I was explaining, " and another thing Mr. Premier." He immediately interrupted.

"You know ANOTHER too? He is great Chinese royalty, Velly wise. You good guy RJ"

I had not the heart to tell him.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:05 - ID#153102)
@I had a funny vision
In my vision I was laughing at a PM trader with a big stack of green printed paper and no gold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:07 - ID#431263)
Wake up down there in OZ will ya, mate? Give me some good news about LIHIR and GOLD this morning! Tell me what that see-through ruler of yours is telling ya' about gold today! Have a good one!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:12 - ID#286234)
Sorry, have to differ on this one. I find Popov is quite alright at room temperature.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:14 - ID#270447)
EJ: Regarding your post on looming Y2K disaster
In your travels and discussions regarding the Y2K problem, what is your opinion as to how bad its going to be?

1. Are we talking about the lights going out and the heat going off on 1/1/2000 because the nations utilities are not Y2K compliant and those that are Y2K compliant can't draw on the national power grid because its down because some utility 4 states away is not compliant?

2. What about fiancial institutions? Money is now represented by numbers on a computer screen. Will that screen go blank on 1/1/2000?

3. Are you going to be riding an airplane or an elevator on 1/1/2000?

4. Many late model cars are dependent on internal computers. Are the lights, brakes, ignition, etc. going to work on that 1995 Cadillac or Lincoln?

5. What about the computers the world's health care industry rely on to analyze and treat medical problems? I don't know of an MRI or CT Scan machine that isn't dependent on a computer.

If the problem is being ignored to the extent you have found, we are in deep doo-doo. Recession??? Hell, thats a minor problem. People will be dying because industry and government ostriches ( jackasses? ) won't face reality. If the problem is wide-spread we'll be lucky to escape with only a severe 73-74 type recession. In thousands of situations around the country we're talking basic survival.

Assuming one doesn't have to be concerned about basic food, shelter, and clothing ( a big assumption, in my opinion ) where does one look for basic fianancial stability when the world's financial system depends on computers? Who will risk owning paper assets and/or bank deposits if they can't be certain they will have access to them or that their ownership of same will even be recognized?

I would welcome any and all thoughts on this issue.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:15 - ID#284255)
Golden Cheesehead
Lihir up 11c to $2.67
OZ Gold Index up 28 pts

Listen: the wind in these tall trees
Far inland, sings of distant seas
Loud clear and sweet thru head and heart
Far inland, swells the distant sea

Unseen deep in the heart of me
The slow soft sweep of surf on sand
The strong roar of a rising sea
Surge and flow thru the heart of me

The full tides rage on iron shore
Within I feel the crashing roar
Of deep seas restless waters
Flooding and tearing my spirit

Strong surge and flood of living sea
This song I hear amongst these trees
Strong swelling song of surging sea
Is loud on this deep forest breeze

Dear God, the mighty surge of sea
How these great waves of loved sea sound
Storming the very soul of me
Through mighty forest gird me round

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:28 - ID#410215)
..... What's Gold? .....

Squirrel -

With much talk of the new paradigm some speak of, could there be a new paradigm regarding gold ownership?

Numbers on a computer are fine for the vast majority of folks. Just ask the almost four trillion in mutual funds. Each month, the holder gets "richer" and then goes out to spend his new wealth. All he ever really had were some numbers in the black.

The former head gold trader for Imperial Bank told me last year, gold would go to $150. Said nobody wants it. This is a man with twenty years in international bank gold trading. I have not gone that far. Gold will not fall that low

PH -

I'm not sure I understand your question. One needs to only look at the last two years to see that sales are happening. Why are they selling when they have not before? Getting ready for the Euro?

Hmmmmm I want to be a member nation of this fantastic new thingie. I will now sell all my gold so they welcome me with open arms.

If one has a currency that is "backed by gold" why would one need all this other gold that is not "backing anything".

This is an unpopular position. But the last two years happened. There is a reason.

Is the reason a new view of gold? Are numbers on a balance sheet enough? Look around you, besides folks on this site, most everybody else is quite pleased with their numbers. They read these numbers and count their wealth. They spend these numbers and take home their toys. What they rarely see is the notes those numbers represent. Let alone anything "backing it".

This seems to be the way of the world today, yes?

I will make one prediction though, If this view continues, gold will die in our lifetimes.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:33 - ID#410215)
..... Were's all my gold? .....

Mozel -

Funny, I had this vision of a goldbug fully vested in gold.

And not an ounce of platinum to be seen.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:46 - ID#24135)
hmmmm ...
RJ confuse me ..
He say ..
" Is the reason a new view of gold? Are numbers on
a balance sheet enough? Look around you, besides
folks on this site, most everybody else is quite
pleased with their numbers. They read these
numbers and count their wealth. They spend these
numbers and take home their toys. What they
rarely see is the notes those numbers represent. Let
alone anything "backing it".

This seems to be the way of the world today, yes?

I will make one prediction though, If this view
continues, gold will die in our lifetimes. "

I tly hard not to misquote or to
quote out of context because RJ get
fulious .. but RJ also said
( I think ) something like he himself holds
gold for long term ..

RJ very inscrutable .. or is he
talk from both sides of mouth ??
Occidentals vely hard to unnerstand.

Hey RJ .. how about send me some
crients ??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 02:46 - ID#410215)
..... Speaking of Numbers .....

Is my ID # different from the one below?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:00 - ID#340302)
@VOYEUR PROFESSOR....yes, I essentially agree with you...
...whether or not the EURO is supported by 5%, 10% or 50% gold, the very reality of a substantive new regional currency will be bearish for the dollar, ergo American equities and bonds. This new regional currency can supplant a hefty portion of U.S. dollar reserves and the repatriation of these U.S. dollars can only be inflationary for America.

By extrapolation, an impending Asian Currency Standard, independent of its gold reserve support level, would threaten U.S. dollar hegemony.

It all nets out to a major positive for gold.



(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:04 - ID#410215)
..... RJ = Gold .....

JD -

I am at heart a believer in gold. This is why I posted ?questions? These are not edicts, nor do I necessarily believe gold is done. I have always advocated the individual holding of gold. But as insurance, or a hedge, or a nest egg. The damn stuff costs too much to use it any differently.

When the world collapses in a huge ball of dust, gold will be handy.

What if the world does not collapse?

Many here will be rich in gold.

But will not even be able to buy cement with it.

Gold, like currency, is the idea of wealth.

If this idea is forfeited, what then?

Others will tell me "gold has been valuable for 5000 years".

Many beliefs that lasted thousands of years, finally died in the light of day. Sun worship, demons causing illness, slavery, and in the last 40 years in this country, person freedom and responsibility.

Nothing is permanent.

Not even crients.

I own gold. I like the stuff. I was able to buy lots more with the profits from my gold shorts last year. Hmmmmmmm. He sells gold, makes "green printed paper" and then uses this to, what. Buy Gold?

Interesting concept.

By selling gold, I now own more gold.

Now that is


(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:06 - ID#410215)
..... It is late .....

I can't believe I just wrote that Sun worship died in the light of day.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:47 - ID#22956)
30 yr Bonds
BIG day on NY open.....this a.m. The charts do not lie......eventually. I am serious. We will see a NICE jump for the remaining part of the week and possibly ( probably ) into next.

( mikeshellers disclaimer applies ) .... ( do your own homework ) the charts

callitlikeIseeit..ohmy ( ! ) ( )

where's Ted? they must have cut him off already..... ( damnable ISP ) :- (

(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:51 - ID#22956)
thanks gold-boy
for all the good 'stuff' tonight. I leally appleciate it. 'kid' with our eastern fliends

i love ALL peopleos......uh huh ( smile )

go gold

(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:52 - ID#340344)
EJ Report
EJ, thank you for the reality-post at 23:42 last night. Highly
recommended reading for anyone who even *thinks* about Y2K.

At least two years ago, I was invited to a "Millennium Party," a
black-tie affair, location to be announced. Now I am thinking that
there are different occasions on which to wear a black tie, and ringing in a new millennium may not be the one uppermost in people's minds in December of '99.

Again, kudos to you, EJ. Each time you write, some of us use the
ideas as ammo to help save our friends and families.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 03:54 - ID#255151)

Got off my a** and ordered some Mounties. Will officially report to the forum upon receipt, expected today or tomorrow. Off to bed. ( Aton-Ra bless us, everyone )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:08 - ID#284255)
GCM8 @ $313.3

You're spending to much time posting here.

Instead of selling gold
So you can buy more gold
For when gold goes higher.

Don't you think?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:09 - ID#22956)

(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:13 - ID#410215)
..... A Compelling Question .....


You wrote:

"Gold stocks ( as you probably know ) do about 3x better than gold bullion during a bull gold market."

This is true.

This is also true of Platinum.

Gold go up swiftly 1 dollar

Platinum go up in a flash 3 - 5 dollars

Look at the history. Put an overlay of monthly ( no quickies here ) platinum on top of gold and watch the rise.

The inherent sexuality in the previous sentence was entirely unintentional and no indication of frustration of ANY sort.. And had I not called attention to the myriad of double entendre in the sentence - now two ago - nobody would have noticed so it may have been better to not bring it up at all.. But since all posts on this forum are written on a computer ( except cherokee who needs naught but blanket, fire, and wood ) and the backspace key works fine, a post such as this, containing all this dribble just when I was getting to the point does seem a waste and better to be dealt with by a decisive delete and is nothing but an affectation actually intentionally inserted into this post to make it seem bigger and more important that it is Uh oh. Freudian stuff happnin' again.

The point was Gold stocks are PAPER. Yes, PAPER ! These stocks represent some company's DEBT to you and have zero inherent value.

The dreaded paper that all with keen perception place such little trust in.

Platinum, however, rises as fast as gold stocks, but it is METAL!!!!!!! For emphasis, I will add another ! Even more !!!

Let's see. Platinum has spent more than 99% of its history priced higher than gold. In a rising gold market, platinum rises further and faster. It is not paper, but the most precious of the metals. Its uses in environmental protection apparatus are almost magical. Goes up $120 while gold drops $100. Almost every single ounce produced is consumed, ( rather than accumulated and stockpiled like gold ) . There are no stockpiles to go to during supply disruptions. The only two spots on earth it is found in any great quantity are undergoing enormous political change. Supplies are tighter than they have been in a decade. Is still $23 over the average LOW for the last dozen years, and $100 under the average HIGH, and seems to be headed for a crunch centered around the June contract.

First delivery notice: End of May. Where are they gonna' get the metal?

I mentioned this a couple months ago when platinum was $380. The question is simple:

If you already own gold, why not add platinum?

This is a compelling question.

I know, it's not a sexy as gold, but its worth more.

I gotta' go, this post has turned around to sex again.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:20 - ID#410215)
..... Me? Sell? Never! .....

Alas, dear Sharefin, I will not sell gold here.

I am too shy.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:27 - ID#410215)
..... Now that's a CHANT .....

Platinum ain't as sexy as gold

But its worth more.

Don't rhyme nor nuthin' tho.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:45 - ID#24135)
Pratinum Stocks Mavumatics

OK Mistah RJ ..
if gold stocks go up free time as
fast as gold AND pratinum go up
free time as fast as gold ven PRATINUM
stocks go up NINE time as fast as
gold. What you say big ferra ??
So why you no buy amprats and
Imprats and Norvum rike me??
Nevah mine dis clap .. where are
my crients???

(Thu Apr 30 1998 04:45 - ID#252391)
My 10 cents worth
May Silver had an outside day with a close above the previous day's high. Volumn looks to have been lower than the previous two day. Consclusion the turn may be nye but hasn't occured yet. Open Interest still declining. I'm watching for an increase on a drop in prices followed by a rally and I think we'll be ready,then, to move toward $7. However, looks like another lower opening following weakness in London. Silver stocks on the way down again to 88.4 million. Give me new low and I'm buying more SSC where ever it is.

Gold showing some leadership. Love Harmony's chart - now there's a stock in an emerging bull. Got to figure activity will be nervous with out too much progress until the Euro question re gold is answered this weekend, if it is answered this weekend.

The PGM - well any downside must be tempered by the fact that the Russians' stock piles are depleted and politics holds sway over deliveries.

All in all - two more days trading - I'm holding and doubt I'll be adding.

Great information provided by Arden and Goose - thanks

(Thu Apr 30 1998 05:45 - ID#230376)
@ All...

Good morning from the chilly Midwest. Does this sound like Kitco last night or Aurator's economist jokes?!?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 05:45 - ID#266105)

Anybody looking for a good used Mitsubishi Diamante.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 05:51 - ID#230376)
@ 2BRO....

Only if the color is GOLD : ^ }

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:00 - ID#224149)
Does anybody Know John Doe?
The story of the man who still has a memory and his name is John Doe .You see this guy missed buying Gold at $90.00 years ago and watched his friends buy new cars, houses and travel the world. John finally decided to buy Gold a few years ago at $400.00 and has been buying Gold every month as he knows Gold is ready to turn higher maybe even to the price of $30,000 oz. John is part of the generation that knows value and appreciates the finer things in live like CNBC, CNN, HBO, Nice big fat easy chair, Prime meat cuts, cold beer, sexy women .He is Green Peace all the way and the environment is important as long as it does not interfere with his profits. John is the perfect proud American man with the great American dream THE PROBLEM IS ------- HE LOST HIS BRAIN.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:01 - ID#39828)
oh well,
a salesman, is a salesman, was a salesman. where as a rose, is a
rose, is a rose. I guess gold is like that rose, and the mutual fund
is the salesman.

Paul Gold__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:03 - ID#21484)
DROOY 1st Quarter Results
Durban Roodepoort Deep quarterly results are on their new website at - this was released at a press conference yesterday.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:12 - ID#252391)
South African Golds UP 5%
South African golds are up 5%, just pulling off their highs. Index is now within 3 percent of its 52 week high. Mutual funds buying do you suppose, Japaense diversifing, catch up being played.

Don't have the anser unless the above are all true - love my HGMCY, will have to buy more, darn and I was committed to sitting tight throught the ERUO confab.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:22 - ID#410215)
..... Coward .....
JL -

Pal, we are going to have at it.

You don't put associations onto to me that don't exist. How many have lost money at EVERY brokerage on earth. These are speculative markets, people win, people loose. Your " poor gullible Jack" deserved everything he got. He bought $45 silver, pal. If the guy made it as far as college and he bought a commodity at an all time high, the lesson was cheap. You chase a market, the market will kill. Everyone who has lost money in these markets, and used a brokerage, blames the brokerage. Ask around here about losses. Many here have their own tale of woe and I will bet most made their loosing investment decisions themselves, indeed many here are proud of the fact that they are so savvy.

You dare to assault me this way?

You do not know me, and you do not know my record. I was pelted from all sides on this forum for months because I told a bunch of rabid goldbugs that gold would go down from 350. I have had no less than twenty, nay fifty over the months, communications from readers of this site, explaining that they held off buying gold because of my posts. These people avoided losses. And it didn't cost them a dime.

You are a coward and a racist and you shout from the gutter. Just who the hell are you?

How about an e-mail pal?

No, you will snipe from the shadows.

You come into my backyard, and insult me and my company?

Who do you think you are?

After 30 years and billions in metals, some will have lost. Yet you come here, anonymously and post this attack?

Perhaps I have a story about JL

We should post it here, yes?

All -

You see how nice things were going today?

I apologize, but if this fellow persists

I will follow through.

I would also ask Bart to remove this anonymous, unsupported, and twisted attack on me from a ghost of a boy who chased silver in 1980 and lost his ass. Sorry, I was in the Army in 1980, in interrogation school. They taught me well. Perhaps JL would like to continue this after reading the posts of the last few days. I was not angry then and my approach was relatively mild.

And JL,

You, young myth monger, will feel the full force of the gale.

Definitely not



The Platinum Guild International

150 East 58th Street

New York, New York 10155


Jacques Lubin


I think he is in Milwaukee today though. You might give him a call Friday.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:31 - ID#284255)
Seems like some guy just carved his initials into the Kauri tree with his penknife. ( :- )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:32 - ID#252286)
Woa!!!! RJ- lighten up!!!!!!!!!!
Woa!!!! RJ- lighten up!!!!!!!!!!
This perspective is based on fact!

Monex is known by many to have a POOR reputation! You're the one who chooses to be associated with them!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:36 - ID#284255)
Dollar steady as euro takes focus

The US dollar was little changed against other leading currencies yesterday as investor attention locked on to this weekend's crucial European Union summit, which will decide on participants in Europe's planned common currency, euro.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:40 - ID#410215)
..... Zero back off .....

JL -

There is no whoa from here. Remove yourself and remove your garbage.

This will not stand

Count on it

Bully Beef
(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:42 - ID#259282)
I don't get it. That whole racist thread in this chat line had disappeared AND NOW IT RAISES IT'S
UGLY HEAD.DROP IT. Whether you like it or not if this chat line deteriorates into hate the plug can be pulled on it. People lose money people make money. Wow ! Ruined my morning coffee and escapism for the day. Go Gold for everybody everywhere.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:46 - ID#250121)
Gag me wood yer Sheller?

I warned you not to encourage me:


1. Economists are armed and dangerous: "Watch out for our invisible hands."
2. Economists can supply it on demand.
3. You can talk about money without every having to make any.
4. You get to say "trickle down" with a straight face.
5. Mick Jagger and Arnold Schwarzenegger both studied economics and look how they turned out.
6. When you are in the unemployment line, at least you will know why you are there.
7. If you rearrange the letters in "ECONOMICS", you get "COMIC NOSE".
8. Although ethics teaches that virtue is its own reward, in economics we get taught that reward is its own virtue.
9. When you get drunk, you can tell everyone that you are just researching the law of diminishing marginal utility.
10. When you call 1-900-LUV-ECON and get Kandi Keynes, you will have something to talk about.


"Un-bumper" stikas:---

ECONOMISTS do it at bliss point
ECONOMISTS do it cyclically
ECONOMISTS do it in an Edgeworth Box
ECONOMISTS do it on demand
ECONOMISTS do it risk-free ( in reference to the risk-free interest rate )
ECONOMISTS do it with a dual
ECONOMISTS do it with an atomistic competitor
ECONOMISTS do it with crystal balls
ECONOMISTS do it with interest


"true story"

Ground floor of William James Hall at Harvard. Three elevators passed us on our way to the basement. I foolishly said "I wonder why everybody in the basement wants to go upstairs." He responded, almost instantly: "You're confusing supply with demand."


surely you've had enough? No?

Economist poem

If you do some acrobatics
with a little mathematics
it will take you far along.
If your idea's not defensible
don't make it comprehensible
or folks will find you out,
and your work will draw attention
if you only fail to mention
what the whole thing is about.

Your must talk of GNP
and of elasticity
of rates of substitution
and undeterminate solution
and oligonopopsony.



have got hold of analog prices of Ag & Au in NZ$, , from 1/1/96, such a lazy fella, she'll be right. Mayabe I'll chart em, maybe i'll go fishin or ( close yer ears Ted====== Duck Shootin=== in me "mai mai" ) oh my! Duck shootin season opens Saturday )


If it weren't for ya gumboots
Where would ya be?
You 'd be in the hospital
or infirmery

You'd have a touch of the flu
or even pleurisy
If it wasn't for your gumboots

Fred Dagg/


(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:50 - ID#39828)
call me retro-hippy
Getting sea sick at Kitco an I got salt in me veins, HUH?.
so call me a fool for this.
Well you can color my world with sunshine yellow each day.
And you can color my world with happiness all the way,
Just take the green from the grass and
The blue from the sky up above,
And you can color my world with
All of your love,
Just color my world,
Just color my world,
guitarr twangin solo
With apologies to PC

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:53 - ID#284255)
Terrible ain't it.
Some new guy pops his head in the door and starts bitch'n about something that happened years ago.

Like before the great USA bull run began - years and years.

And then he twists a story together and throws it at someone.
Yuk such bad manners.

You'd a thought that he would have learned something all that time ago.
No sir, and he still hasn't.

And I thought that this forum was for waxing lyricly on philosophical dicussions regarding the POG.

I know I've got some good stories about brokers.

Like the one who told me to sell my Annaconda shares @ 20c just before they went up to $4, and I had 100,000 of them - sheesh

But then I could just keep on going on.

Nah, theres to many bad stories out there.

Personally I think he's just baiting.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:54 - ID#252286)
Relax, RJ - just my opinion.
OK, RJ bud. Since this experience doesn't reflect your character, don't get agro over it. Let it simply serve as a reminder to others to beware of internet strangers professing to be keepers of the knowlege concerning the direction of the PMs. You've sort of been right, sort of wrong over the past year and at times dead wrong, but who's countin'?

I expressed my opinion that I think Monex is a shark pit. It's my opinion RJ. Next time should I get your approval before I post?

By the way, how's the surf?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:59 - ID#411331)
@*F I am a relative newbie to the gold scene, but having lurked here for about
six months before finally posting ( my background is geology, not economics ) , it has occurred to me that the producer foreward selling-
CB lease rate-gold spot price system is a negative feedback loop that can only drop the world gold price. The question is, who started the loop?

Was it the gold producers? They sell foreward to protect profit margins in a gold bear market.

Was it the CBs who set the lease rates? If a CB sets lease rates for
loaning gold at less than general interest rates, this must attract speculative short selling of gold. Ergo, cheap gold lease rates must drop spot gold prices. The CB's must know this. The CB,s must want this!

I have come to the conclusion that we have $300 gold because CB's want
$300 gold, even though they show a paper loss of $150 billion on their
gold reserves. This matters not, if they do not intend to sell. IMHO

My question is, when was CB gold leasing begun, at what historic lease rates, and does the pattern of lease rate decline correlate with the positioning of the new EURO?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:59 - ID#410215)
..... Vote .....

I have only spoken to two people in 14 years who claim to have made money with silver in 1980. One was my brother ( I believe him, I saw the cash ) and the other was a liar.

When silver was at 4.50 in 1979, nobody wanted it.

When silver was at $30 people were lined up around our building in the parking lot with briefcases full of cash begging for silver. This is not apocryphal. This happened.

Americans are like sows, they rush to the trough and fight for their grubs with the rest of the snorters. We see this heard mentality in the stock market today. Will we be treated to posts about ALL major brokerages when the Dow finally does fall?

Does anybody here think this JL post is fair to me, my company, or this forum?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 06:59 - ID#248180)
@ W/ST Bubble from FT London
US still to feel full Asia impact
The financial crisis in south-east Asia could slow down economic growth in the US, reducing the need for a near-term hike in interest rates. Janet Yellen, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, said she was confident US growth would slow down as the effects of the Asian crisis were felt more severely. Ms Yellen also said Wall Street did not face a speculative bubble, when excess credit pushes up asset prices. But economists said the US stock market was facing the prospect of a "classic bubble" that could result in a downward correction of up to 20 per cent.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:10 - ID#26793)
Key dates for the EMU

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:17 - ID#248180)
"FLASH" @ Boris N. Yeltsin - Ruble/Gold/EURO - Price chart moniter
Yeltsin Prefers Red Wine to Vodka, Kremlin Says

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) The Kremlin on Tuesday denied reports that liver problems had stopped President Boris Yeltsin drinking, but it did say he now preferred fine red wine to vodka -- and had had some for breakfast only that day.

"He doesn't have any problem with his liver," said spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky. "During the time I've worked for the president he has not experienced problems with his liver."

Yastrzhembsky went on to offer details from Yeltsin's breakfast menu to prove his point: "Doctors have not forbidden the president to drink a glass of wine which, for example, he did today at a working breakfast with other leaders."

Earlier on Tuesday former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone had quoted French President Jacques Chirac in Tokyo as telling him Yeltsin had had a problem with his liver and had been told to stay away from alcohol.

"There seems to have been a situation with his liver because of drinking too much vodka. He seems to be abstaining after the doctor ordered him to," Nakasone quoted the French president as saying.

In past years the Kremlin has denied rumors of heavy drinking by the president. But his aides today apparently want to portray Yeltsin as a man able to enjoy some of the pleasures of life despite multiple heart bypass surgery in November 1996.

Yastrzhembsky said the reported comments about Yeltsin's liver were strange because the president had hosted Chirac at various functions where alcohol was on offer.

He said Chirac had "more than once participated in different events, informal and formal, where he could be sure of the opposite."

Asked if Yeltsin still had a taste for vodka, the spirit which for many Russians is the true test of manhood, the spokesman replied: "Recently the president prefers red wine." (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:18 - ID#240120)
Looks like ANOTHER was right.
Agro + Chat forum + Business = Bad mix

How about a new equation:

Chat forum + Business - Agro = Right on mix

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:24 - ID#26793)
Glad to be back. On the matter of Chinese "get rich quick" schemes. Why bother to get rich quick or even get rich slow if your country won't accept the concept of private property? What do I do with my new riches? Buy Cokes and Big Macs?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:25 - ID#255284)
Kauri and Dust in the wind.. Wiata

I begin, ricocheting off some of your words---

And initials carved in a kauri are as vain an attempt at invincibility as Canute facing down the tide. No?

I hope you've been awed by a tree of a thousand years and more. And seen a forest of its brethren.

I have seen Tane Mahuta. Stretching for a thousand years into the heavens.

A tree with a name. One of many. History is so fleeting. We have had some wonderful tales, and tails, in the past few days at kitco, a cherished spot indeed. A hallowed hall in cyberland.

Obligations and gratitude extend BARTwards.

Beyond the histories are the pre-histories, before the writings of our precious humanity our stories are told in legend and song. The Maori legends have been kept alive as song,"wiata" so have those of the white tribes. the pakeha.


and in the time before writing we have folk tales and legends. Apocrypha and myth. Stories, passed from knee to ear, from grandfather to babe in arms, the campfires that span generations. Words of power and of wisdom are passed down. Don't tell me how words cannot hurt! Words can cast hatred through a generation, and love for a thousand years, But I digress.......

For some reason, Crsus, know why, there is a convocation afoot. Here. In the place that does not exist. This "land" of kitco. Amongst those of different dances and different tribes. I salute you all! Those of tribes known and unspoken. I salute you! I welcome you to this unusual voice-writing place!




My hope is that this convocation, ( Con-vocation, speaking together, this commonality of purpose & vocation ) ; this conference ( this coming together of "brethren" aka kindred spirist ) ; this corroboree ( this speaching of the unfathomable ) , shall be passed down into the future and shall last forever. So our children and yet unborn generations, the hope of humanity, who by destiny and design share this one great-island-gold-world, shall reap the benefit of the words of_thesages@pagesdotkitco and thereby aspire to the intellectual FREEDOMS, FRATERNITY and EQUALITY of GOLDBUGS in all inhabited sentient planets.


good as gold


(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
Ashanti Goldfields news

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:35 - ID#410215)
..... JL Who? .....

JL -

Do you know anything about trading? At all? Perhaps you could enlighten me about my dead wrong calls.

Being in a trade when the market moves against you and settles in a new range is a fundamental reality of these markets. I can be completely upside down in a trade, and with use of cross hedges, like to like hedges, a little time, and a dash of luck, I will pull that trade out at break even or better.

This is why your poor young chum deserved his loss. He knew not what he was doing and he was greedy. There is no free lunch. If you want to make the dough, you got know the market.

So far since I posted on this forum, I got caught in some silver shorts in December, and am working a batch of weakened gold shorts. What you may not understand, is that while these clients are have about a $10 paper loss in gold now, we netted better than 40 on long platinum. I have stops in and, if they hit, we will still net $20 on a half loosing trade. That translates into a nearly 30% net profit in less than two months. Not bad for a "loosing trade".

The rest of you who berate me for my shorts ( not the golden silky ones 'nieth my too high skirt ) Do you see that you are only looking at one side of the trade? You notice I refer to myself as a trader, not a broker. Brokers break things. Traders trade. Since the direction is meaningless and volatility is almost always present, one can trade the range to great effect. Witness APH.

As for your poor pal Jackie. A ten thousand dollar lesson about chasing markets was probably cheaper than his college degree, and he learned a whole lot more.

You also say something about "Internet strangers professing to be keepers of the knowledge concerning the direction of the PMs"

I used to detail my trades here. I no longer do this, because they do not understand how to trade both sides of the market. They hear gold short and hear not long platinum attached. Some of my best trades arose out of a defensive posture.

As for being a stranger. There are maybe half a dozen people on this forum who have actually identified themselves, usually those who are not afraid of standing by their words. I have corresponded and met people from this forum. I saw Strad create beautiful music last year in LA.

I am no stranger I

You know who I am, and where I work, call the 800 directory and you could even get my phone number, you could ask Joanne ( the operator with the honey sweet voice ) for RJ, you will be transferred to me, I will then put you on hold for an indeterminate period of time, probably long enough for me to have a leisurely cup of cappuccino, before I instruct Mara, my secretary to hang up on you.

Whatever prompted you to make that post, and to then incorporate my name into it was way low. I have been insulted by some very talented people hereabouts, but they attack on the issue or my person, they did not attack my company. Who do you work for, may we ask? And what is your phone number?

I want that post removed, and you slander of my firm to cease.

This will not stand

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:35 - ID#26793)
For you NWO fans. Internet control to be under international body.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:35 - ID#333127)
Looks like someone has found some plat and pall to sell. Might get a chance to buy back pl/pd stk's soon at reduced prices?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:36 - ID#248180)
Russia Economic Code Indicator- Boris Sips Red Wine
Russia- Economic Indicators Released:
Boris now drinks red wine in the morning: This indicates Russia's move to embrace the EURO. This is a very French/Euro thing to do. Notice even Lebed was recently "Groomed" in Paris.
If young Kiriyenko announces that he drinks Saki for lunch. The Japanese could start to expect PGM delivers by late Summer. The Japanese should not expect to much before September, as we all know May/Spring in Russia is festive time. June & July ( Beliya Notch ) well this is time for "Daucha's" planting potatoes, singing dancing & shashliki. August/September it's harvest time and harvest festival's and so one. Then we must rest and sample fruits of labour. Well maybe Japan get White Metals after Summer/Fall 1998.
Liver Problems: Don't you love the Russian cure ( lickarstva ) Slow down on the vodka, start drinking red wine at breakfast, lunch & dinner ( act European ) then go to bed with Blondinka & pickles.
This report is very positive for Precious Metals. I am convinced now that our dear friend MR.ANOTHER is Boris N. Yeltsin, ( after Boris drink Red wine he becomes ANOTHER. )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:36 - ID#316209)
ALL... it seems that everytime I have taken a trip or vacation this year, PMs
have a good rally. Well, here I go again. BTW, the action of RANGY & DROOY have been quite positive. As a matter of fact, the South African gold mining group in general seems to be outperforming the North Americans.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:37 - ID#419147)
gold producers, CB-s, falling prices
I am not a geologist, economist, gold miner or central banker. I just want to have some insurance against the ( possible ) follies of my government and big international organizations like UN and IMF. I guess this makes me a bit of gold bug and silver bug and, yes a platinum bug ( RJ thanks for advice ) . And now I would refer to some posts by people who have a lot to do with all of them.

"Gold is a cartell, all major producers are organized similar way to De Beers diamond cartell"

"CB-s operate together, at least when gold is involved" ( looks like a cartell too )

"major producers sell forvard to CB-s which reduces profits but guarantees survival"

"junior companies lack capitalization," ( I understand it means thay have little money to start serious mining operation ) "but some of them have great potential" ( they have found new deposits )

Falling prices hurts the juniors most..correct me if I'm wrong. CB-s have a lot of metal and besides, they print the cash they are paying with. Also major producers are hedged by ( to ) the same CB-s.

Looks like a serious atempt to keep/force unhedged, uncartelled companies out of business, to maintain controll on both gold demand and supply.


PS. Every order exceeding 10 000$ US or so ( I'm not certain about numbers ) is to be reported to "authorities",
The question is: why bother to track it if gold is "a barbaric relict"??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:40 - ID#255284)
home Troofs


actually, one of the best things happened to me was when I realised my broker was:
a ) 40 IQ Points below the ave of my compadres
b ) diddling me out of profits
c ) passing on my reseach as his knowledge
d ) a dildo

that's why I like this site

We are free with our knowledge. We give "the fingers" to mindless little twerps who publish what we write as their own research, and while I should not like to point any fingers, toes, pinkies or dildoes at some newsletter writers and journalists, there are several harlots of the media who spring readily to mind who have been mentioned here in the past ( dont get paranoid GARTMAN, nor BLANCHARD--got you recommending RYO--, nor Puetz, nor Andy Smith. I don't mean you guys, I mean the other charlatans ) , who lurk like vampires and publish for profit what you read at kitco for free. Joke's on you, "boyz", ha ha.\\

Bart had created an information forum for the free citizens of this sweet gold world, and I am grateful. Oh, yes.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:46 - ID#289357)
Paul Gold @ Durban Deep web site

Paul - Thanx for the ( brand new - I was hit #1 ) web site link to Durban Deep; for those who missed your post, its here:

Now if I can only get Pan American Silver to get their butt on the net......aaarrrrggghh!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:47 - ID#224363)
RJ @Thu Apr 30 1998 06:59

I don't think anyone should take any of the comments posted here personally - It just isn't worth it...

You, like many of the other posters here, bring a perspective to metals market that when viewed together, provide insight that otherwise would not be available to a typical investor.

Like any schoolground, the children line up on sides and take swings at each other ( verbal in this case ) . However, at the end of the year, some will move on to the next grade and others will have to repeat.

Keep those letters and comments coming...

To All: Interesting play over the next two days as the Euro announcement nears. Which way will the traders go ?? And better still which way will they go next week ??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:49 - ID#410215)
..... PISS..... I mean PS JL .....

I'll be in the office in less than an hour.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:52 - ID#410215)
..... I took the test .....

Aurator -

I have only been accused of ( d ) . Often

Uh Huh

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:56 - ID#228128)
Notice the spikes, jukes and turns on the gold chart thiis A.M. Is someone trying to slam the lid down on Pandora's box before gold gets out?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 07:58 - ID#248180)
@ MR. ANOTHER & "A Sense of Humour - is Golden"
Sir I sincerely hope & trust that you have a rich sense of Humour.
I may jest using your posting name from time to time and trust that no offence is taken, please know no offence is intended.
I value and respect your "Thoughts" and opinions. Creating wealth, making money, storing precious metals, are all worthless pursuits if one does not have a good sense of humour and a good laugh each day.
How's your camel?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:00 - ID#413109)
Israel's 50th independance celebrations and BBC
Just sent this the BBC-
BBC-General Manager,
It is my opinion that you deserve a prize,
in fact first prize, for "LOW BLOW",
journalism. That on a day like today,
our country's 50th anniversity celebrations,
you have the "CHUTZPAH" ( CHEEK ) , to come to
our country, and have your reporters go to
a place that you feel is a place of contention,
and interview "Palestinian" representatives
on an international viewed program.

Just imagine an Israeli reporter, or any reporter,
going to Belfast, say on the queen's birthday,
and interviewing pro and anti factions and asking
them for their opinions of the situation, vis-a-vis
England, or the queen's position.
If this is your way of congatulating us on this
special day, I, for one would not be appreciative.

Fred Reifenberg

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:04 - ID#330175)
Don't cry but this is my LAST day in cyberSPACE
How will I live withOUT ANOTHER,yes?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:05 - ID#330175)
G'Day mate!!!....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:05 - ID#410215)
..... I've got


I can take rather good care of myself against attacks, yes?

This base, cheap, and racist attack on my firm is unwarranted, and in the lowest taste.

Witness the calm serenity of my posts last eve. Seems all here have decided to move ahead, and I welcome that decision with great relief.

Now comes JL to attack my company.

I am loyal to my family, my friends, my company, and my country.

I would fight for all.

And who would knock the mighty Kauri down?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:06 - ID#42039)

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:10 - ID#255284)

Good to see ya
I think, but this might be a "watcher" speaking, that you should trip up that cute filly in whose frilly lea you are skating and do something about it, yes?

Tis spring in the Northern Hemisphere, no?


I'm falling

free falling

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:11 - ID#330175)
I'll try N catch ya
Aurator......splat ( missed,eh )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:11 - ID#413109)
Open apology to Bart
Please accept my apology for the post, which I feel has no place on
this forum, but the situation caught me in the gut, after the British
history in this part of the world, to now try to stir up further problems
on a happy day of special celebrations. Imagine someone from the BBC
interviewing American Indians, on the 4th of July, and asking them for
their opinions, and broadcasting this to the world.
Again, sorry for the outburst!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:16 - ID#215208)
For those of you that follow the channels charts ( Nick@C - thanks for the honorable mention ) , platinum hit the channel bottom yesterday, with a London afternoon close of $400. I'm now long platinum at 399.25. No one but me seems to be concerned that platinum failed to make a new high coincident with the last wild rally and new high in palladium. However, this still makes me nervous, and I will keep the stops tucked up tight.

Silver is within spitting distance of its channel bottom, which is just under 6.00. With APH predicting silver to bottom out yesterday or today, perhaps we will get a chance to buy it at or near the channel bottom sometime today. It weakened overnight, and might just do it.

Since gold is nowhere near the channel bottom, I think we will see new highs in gold as platinum and silver pull back from their respective channel bottoms. Perhaps this will be the rally that takes gold to the top of its channel.

Sorry I can't post the updated chart, as I'm travelling, but the channels haven't changed from the post earlier this week.

Happy trading.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:17 - ID#288369)
Teddy, don't lose that number.........When is your estimated time of return back to Kitco? The "humor" factor of Kitco will be reduced by 50% during your absence...this is a critical operating level. And don't fall off the friggin' roof! Luv' ya, teddO!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:19 - ID#248180)
@ Reify "Chutzpah" - Really not here Please.
Congratulations. Reify, Reify - you don't really want to bring that debate to this forum. Please some might argue and fairly that: "50 years does not a country make". Leave it God Bless you. As the Rabbi would say
"May God Bless & Keep the Jews and the Palestinians far away from each other." But how rabbi? "That is Gods Business" replied the Rabbi.
Reify buy more Gold drink more vodka and have red wine for breakfast. Live long and prosper.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:20 - ID#330175)
Nick...................and Fosters......
All my friends ( Eddie & Willy ) ) in Cape Breton are givin MOI a goin-away party and we's drinkin FOSTERS in yer honour ( man,I can just see that cold-sweat drippin down then BIG cold cans ( whatta beautiful sight,yes? ) ---ANOTHER GOLDen moment in Cape Breton....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:22 - ID#330175)
STUDio.R...................and EDOR
My best guess is November ( but then I'm verrrry stoopid,yes? )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:26 - ID#255284)
Until we meet again, some sunny day.


G'day to you too mate

I wish you a straight eye and true.
An arm strong and fearless.
A heart as gentle as the melting snow,
and a spirit as free as the whales.

But I said that somewhere before, no?

au revoir

your mate,


(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:26 - ID#238422)
Junior/Statement from the Kremlin
We feel obligated to deny all rumors, facts and other
sources of information, both in Russian and other non-
russian language, if anybody knows that language.

Red wine for the President Yeltsin for breakfast was
prescribed by our Kremlin doctor, comrade XYZov. Previously
prescribed vodka treatment was put on hold until wine
lasts... We are currently accumilating precious metals to
provide enough funds in 1998 for purchase of French made
Merlot for our President. As soon as Merlot is delivered,
precious metals will be released on the open market to
pay for this delivery.

In addition, and for now, we deny any problems with
President Yeltsin's manhood. Our official position on
this subject will be released when President makes his
decision on the subject of new European currency and
its impact on his liver.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:26 - ID#330175)
EB...........................and the Lakers------------....................................*Go Gold*

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:27 - ID#288369)
Now I know how Tonto felt when the Lone Ranger got shot. I will take good care of your trusty mount, "Silver", until the golden day of your return. Us missum Kimosabe.....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:27 - ID#248180)
@ Ted- Golden moments
Will miss you brother Ted. Love the one liners and your sense of humour.
Stay well - God bless and keep you - Be a wonderful man. Cheers.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:28 - ID#330175)
Employment Cost Index up .7%
less than expecTED~~~~~

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:31 - ID#330175)
Junior .....and wonderful I ain't -----------
but thankx anyhoo....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:33 - ID#213265)
@the scene
RJ is absolutely correct! People will chase a market up, buying in towards/at the top. That's when the 'people' get in! A trading firm has NOTHING to do with their decision to buy in at that extreme, or to sell out at the bottom. GET 'EM RJ! As for when I'll sell, it'll be when these same people are lined up at RJ's door to buy! The best indicator of all!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:39 - ID#23782)
That deck building business took off for ya, huh. Good on ya.
Have a good one.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:40 - ID#33180)
gold turn, and see comment: miners like to dig, not make money. Bye, ted.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:43 - ID#258427)
TEDo...great to see someone
living out their dreams...may swing by SI sometime and I mean shake your

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:43 - ID#248180)
@ Oris- New Boris Liver Impact Moniter
Russian acadamicians have discovered a gene in the Russian liver that prevents damage from excess Vodka. It is proven that this Russian liver gene does not have the same protective qualities against French Merlot. Boris should resume Blondinka treatment. Bill Klinton will send him Moanin Monika soon with fresh stocks of California Merlot.

It has been fun and to all a good night from OZ and good morning to Yall.
Cheers. Good nightZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:44 - ID#401460)
30YR @ 6%

What's the Fed to do now? Rates going down?^tyx&d=b


(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:44 - ID#375108)
Fare thee well, Islander. Keep on drippin...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:50 - ID#410215)
..... Ted you da MAN .....

Ted -

I am ashamed that, in my self absorption, I completely missed the fact that you are leaving at all. I know not to where, but the living out your dreams post sounds very good indeedy.

Watch for the tricky swell that sweeps you on the shoals, you have friends in the sea, stay safe, and I will remember you fondly.

Then, come back



(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:50 - ID#42039)
Truth stands in front of our eyes...

1 ) does anybody remark that Royal Canadian mint issue the "mountie"?
2 ) This ,mysteriously ,looks like a kind of"put"operation for investors in gold coins with a strikeprice at 310us$.3 ) RCmint,canadian government refinery,has interest in making this "put" expire.
4 ) Given that central bank of Canada belongs to the "pool" of CB which meet each others in Basle-Switzerland- each month,one can say that CBCanada is "initiated".
5 ) Thus,310us$ IS now the pricetrend of equilibrium decided.
Regularly but scarcely in the last 10 years,Swissbanks ( insiders too ) issued call warrants made to expire:Each time the strike price gave me rough indications of a threshold for goldounce ....and mysteriously call warrants ( european options ) expired...

Last remark:
I sent a mail last autumn directly to a gentleman called Georges s Cole saying this:
-"do you know that FANDANGO is the name for a spanish dance especially created to make the head s dancers turn.Concerning CON-TANGO I let you find out your own translation..."
How do you compute the amount of gold ounces scheduled for delivery,regarding wharehouse stocks:for example the04/23 169237 are eligible:OK
417800 are sched for delivery:???

Thanks every body for this forum .Hope my english is not too much scholar.
Greetings from France.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:52 - ID#410215)
..... RCM .....

Goldy88 -

You have a keen eye, indeed.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 08:57 - ID#393224)
Words are inadequate. You know where your mates are. You have brightened up a lot of our lives. Remember what I said to you. Ain't no mongoose gettin' out of my jaws, mate. Enjoy the Fosters. Not goodbye, just see ya later.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:02 - ID#426220)

GOLD RESERVES play an important role in determining the long-term market appreciation of gold mining shares. Following is a brief comparison of SOUTH AFRICAN ( SA ) gold reserves versus those of their counterparts in NORTH-AMERCIA ( N/A ) and AUSTRALIA ( AUS ) .

In the study posted at G-o-l-d-E-a-g-l-e ( GLOBAL GOLD COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ) , we analyzed COMPARABLE cross-sections of the three gold producing areas: North-America, Australia and South-Africa. Following are the stated results regarding reserves.

 Annual Gold Production - Average per company

.N/A produces 1.210 million ounces - ( 12 major producers )

.Aus produces 0.462 million ounces - ( 10 major producers )

.SA produces 0.870 million ounces - ( 13 major producers )

 Gold Reserves - Average per company

.N/A has 19.7 million ounces - ( 12 major producers )

.Aus has 4.6 million ounces - ( 10 major producers )

.SA has 38.8 million ounces - ( 13 major producers )

 Annual Production as a Per Cent of Reserves

.N/A production is equivalent to 6.1% of its total reserves

.Aus production is equivalent to 10.0% of its total reserves

.SA production is equivalent to 2.2% of its total reserves

The numbers here simply mean that South African companies possess vastly more gold reserves as its competitors across the "Big-Pond." Moreover, a lower annual production rate is INDEED A VERY POSITIVE FACTOR FOR THE LONG-TERM INVESTOR. The rationale for this assertion is the following.

For the sake of argument let's assume all areas continue to produce at the same annual rates, and that NO NEW RESERVES ARE ADDED. It is then rather evident that the South African mines will continue to produce gold, long after its brethren have shut-down their mines for lack of reserves.

-N/A at 6.1% annual prod of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 16.4 years

-Aus at 10.0% annual prod of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 10.0 years

-SA at 2.2% annual prod of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 45.4 years

South African production will far outlast its counterparts who have CONSIDERABLY LESS RESERVES. For N/A mining companies to prolong their gold producing lives, they must necessarily acquire through acquisition and/or merger the SA mines, LITERALLY PREGNANT WITH GOLD RESERVES

Consequently, QUANTITY OF RESERVES is a cardinal facto in a comparative analysis of similar companies in each area -- and therefore of paramount concern to a prudent investor, especially institutional investors who are necessarily long-term oriented - and who are always seeking intrinsic value ( like a Warren Buffett ) .



(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:02 - ID#284255)
Chart data zipped up for the collectors
This file contain long term data for charts for:
Gold - back to 1975
Silver - back to 1967
Platinium - back to 1985
Paladium - back to 1984

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:05 - ID#330175)
now ya have MOI cryin~~~~~ ( ( ( unless my ISP ( ugh ) pulls-the-plug on moi early,I will be back later t'day,yes? ) ) ) ....away ta dream of new 'kayak-trails' and try ta get my sh!t together ( hopeless,eh ) ...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:05 - ID#286230)
No Internet in New England??
Ted: I can understand you neighbours having a party to celebrate your departure ---but are they having one at the other end of your move????? Don't forget you can come back at any time during the next 6 months and get your free socialized healthcare.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:07 - ID#26793)
I will be pleased to snail mail you a few of the better posts from time to time. Let me know your address.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:14 - ID#434158)
y2k and Euro
Peter de Jager reminisces over the futility of trying to warn Europeans that their Euro efforts will, in the short term, insure failure of the Euro AND their IT preparations for the year 2000. They already knew that: it don't change a thing! Fascinating reading.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:18 - ID#410114)
commitments of traders from the CFTC
Here is another site with info for the commitments of traders

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:20 - ID#434158)
Vronsky: RSA companies
Hope you will cut me some slack as a new guy: I'm just an investor, and no expert by a long shot. I've appreciated your info re NA and RSA valuations here and on the golden eagle site. Have to ask you a question. Is it possible that part of the reason for the difference in valuation has to do with confidence that management can get the gold OUT of the ground efficiently? Just asking!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:20 - ID#244242)
I must say that I have dealt with Monex back in the mid-80's and NEVER had occasion to complain about their service or advice. As you have mentioned, if anyone screwed up trading it was on MY end.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:20 - ID#410114)
lets try again

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:26 - ID#224363)
Peter de Jager...
Interesting man this Peter de Jager. Not particularly smooth and no doubt has all his money in gold coins that are buried in the forest.

Although I don't particularly like his style and warnings of calamity, there is a fair amount of truth in his Y2000 concern.

A major telecommunications company that I once consulted for had to issue a commercial settlement on one of their products because there was no way in hell that they could make it Y2K compliant. ( Commericial settlement is 'buy new equipment from another vendor for the customer or provide them with cash ) .

My take, based on s/w development experience is that Y2K will cause a severe market depreciation for 12-36 months.

1 ) Asia is pre-occupied with other problems and will not have the time or resources to address the issue.

2 ) Europe is dealing with the Euro and Y2K at the same time

3 ) North America will simply spend a great deal of time and money trying to get ready. Some will succeed...Some will fail.

4 ) Latin America...Same deal as Asia

So as we enter Q1/Q2 of 1999, short the index funds and buy gold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:26 - ID#410114)
Jed, some people have been hurt at monex

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:28 - ID#284255)
You stirred Dad's memory up with the request of the Kauri poem.
It came in his sleep but a few days ago.

Strange enough but we have the genuine McKoy up here in Northern Queensland - in the tropics.
There are two mighty Kauri's with girths around of 60 odd ft.
To stand at their bases and look skywards is awesome.

No wonder the British won wars with those masts.
It would take more than a penknife to scratch their bark.

One of God's gifts
Might I add like GOLD.


My friend,

You I liken to the Totara
Tall and proud
Stalwart and strong
Ready for any breeze
To ruffle your limbs.

We will all miss your repartee.
As the forrest mourns the loss
Of it's mighty giants.

We of Kitco are the trees that
Make up the forrests of humanity.
To remove one of the giants
Is a loss for the forrest
And a loss for Kitco.

Travel in peace, bro.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:31 - ID#287338)
It seems that there are 3 kinds of economy figures

The expected numbers: Your guess is as good as mine.

The government reported numbers: Almost always come in just right to keep things moving along.

The actual numbers: Does anyone really know?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:32 - ID#28994)
Selby - Healthcare
There is no such thing as free socialized healthcare - check your taxes. Socialized healthcare is the most expensive. The province of Ontario, in Canada, a good example.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:33 - ID#317193)
Gold and Vodka
Some very good humor late last evening and this morning together with less than memorable reading.

Spouse says if spot gold goes to $318 I get to drink some vodka with my beer. Brother oris this is BIG deal in personal matrimonial affairs. I have never posted Go Gold. Now a first-GO GOLD!

Dear CB's, please manipulate gold to $318 within next 4-5 trading days, Yes?

Must work this A.M.-play golf this afternoon-you people here see that gold goes up-not down!

It is a good day to be alive, Yes?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:34 - ID#244242)
Duly Noted. Thanks.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:38 - ID#284255)
What was the great news that pushed Globex up 10 points in 2 minutes?
Or was someone ensuring the outcome?

Is this the blastoff for Dow 10,000?
GCM8 = $312.40

Interesting to see if the positive correlation - Dow up & gold up
Will be useable as a measure of safety on this next leg?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:39 - ID#42039)
RJ :your post of 8h52
RJ:Thank you to counterbalance this forum.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:41 - ID#153102)
@Bye for now, TED
But hurry back. & Remember No Island is a man.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:45 - ID#286230)
Sorry -its an old joke
skinny: Yes yes we all know that--especially those people who don't have socialized healthcare.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:45 - ID#41170)
Silverbaron- how bout a holler, lost your e-mail.

Tally Ho

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:50 - ID#153102)
@Demand For International Recognition for Ebonics
Dat little brain fart, Mozel,
He gone to dribble on heself.
Sose I gets my chance to say
You foks stop downin the Ebonics.
& Mistah Reify, I say wich you, Da Queen's po zi shun be her own bidness.

I fank you.
I fank you all.
Gotta go now.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:52 - ID#285121)
Government reports
The equities are reacting strongly this morning to two GOVERNMENT supplied figures. RIGHT, and we have a balanced budget too.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:52 - ID#289357)
SDRer, aurator @ BIS - how much gold??? Here's an answer.........

Here's the response received from the BIS to my query about their gold holdings:


We refer to your E-mail message dated 17th April 1998 in which you request information on the gold reserves of the BIS.

Detailed information of the Bank's balance sheet is available on the World Wide Website ( http:/ ) , as an attachment to the Annual Report.

According to the published accounts of the Bank, at 31st March 1997 the Bank's total assets in gold amounted to GF 4,503,923,733 whilst its liabilities in gold were GF 3,836,401,223. The Bank's own gold holdings at 31st March 1997, amounted to GF 661,900,753, the equivalent of 192 tonnes of fine gold. The Bank's unit of account, the gold franc ( abbreviated to GF ) is defined in Article 4 of the Bank's Statutes as representing 0.29032258*grammes fine gold.

For your future reference, information on the BIS may be requested from our Information, Press and Library Services.


Paul Stannard - Administrator of the Register of Shareholders

Please note:

This e-mail/telefax message from the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) is

not an authenticated telecommunication. The BIS can only be validly committed

( a ) by written messages duly signed in accordance with its current list of

signatories or ( b ) by telecommunications duly authenticated or tested in

accordance with bilateral arrangements expressly agreed with the correspondant.

The information contained in this message is confidential and may be legally

privileged. It is intended only for the use of the individual ( s ) or entity ( ies ) to whom

it is addressed and others who have been specifically authorised to receive it. If

you are not the intended recipient, retention, disclosure, dissemination, copying,

or taking action on the basis of this information is prohibited.

If any problems occur with this transmission or if you have received this message

in error, please notify us immediately:-

E-mail Internet

X.400 c=ch;a=400net;p=bis;s=emailmaster

Telephone Switzerland ( 061 ) 280 80 80

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:53 - ID#426220)

GungaDin ( Vronsky: RSA companies )

I defer to the on-the-scene expert to answer your question: the

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:56 - ID#228100)
PMF -- Peter de Jager and Y2K
Agree with your Y2K assessment. The only similiar situation ( for which I have any knowledge ) is the "Energy Crisis" of the 1970's. Some folks were hit very hard, some weren't, a few used this as an opportunity to make a fortune.

The Bottom Line: Financially, I am not certain what to do about it. About 10% of my assets in PM stocks, with the rest in a money market fund yielding only 5%.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:57 - ID#284255)
Dow up - volatility plus
Dow up 120 in 25 minutes
Tick over 1100
After a tick of -1600 last week.

Tick readings of over 1000 are normally seen as reversal points.

But then this is the "World's Greatest Bull Market"
Europe on a roll too.
With Turkey leading the race +5.3%
Greece second @ +4.4%

Should be playing these markets
Not gold - mutter! mutter!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:58 - ID#224151)
Punmasters are having a field day this one,Yes! Sure puts a positive slant on the expression "Hard Times" don't it!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:58 - ID#23782)
Hmmm Ted
They said some guy with a bucket o' loonies bought all the books.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 09:59 - ID#410215)
..... Rob .....

Rob -

Check out Merryll Lynch. They have 33,000 of those.

Sometimes people get swept away with enthusiasm and get over their head. They will, more times than not, sue to get $ back. When one has taken a big loss, attorney fees seem cheap to try to recover some losses.

Remember, large losses can happen with leverage for it is a sword that cuts both ways.

Let's ask this compound question:

Who else, in the world, can you call at 9pm and buy metal at the close of the day rather than tomorrow's open, send your money, and ALWAYS get EXACTLY what you paid a very reasonable price for?

Who else has been in the same four story building for 24 years and, in every one of those years, clients could go to sell back their metal at the best bid prices I know of, current bid on LF and VP about $2 OVER spot, not seven or eight under spot.

If one were buying metal for delivery, the risk is the same regardless of who your buy it from. Will you get your metal in a timely manner? Will funds clear quickly? Are costs clearly defined?

If one is using leverage, risk is clearly disclosed and efforts are made to insure suitability. ( no widows with 10K in the bank )

Who else lists these references:

Johnson Matthey

Royal Canadian Mint

Austrian Mint


Farmers and Merchants bank

The Platinum Guild international.


Your local banker. Many of my clients asked their own bank about us. We receive frequent referrals directly from banks who are helping their clients with their metals purchases.

This is quite a pedigree, yes?

It is


(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:01 - ID#224151)
Forgot to add....Go Gold!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:06 - ID#284255)
Clinton to hold news conference on Thursday
ECB row threatens to spoil EMU summit party

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:08 - ID#153102)
You have the right to remain silent. etc.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:12 - ID#410215)
..... Mozel .....

I gave up that right long ago, sorry.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:12 - ID#240120)
Alarm as China's banks default

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:15 - ID#401349)
Suspicious -- your 09:52
I am VP Ops in an aerospace & telcom engineering company. For two years now my techies ( engineers/software builders ) sneer at 8-10% salary increases. Most expect 20 per cent. If I don't give it, they go down the street. The company down the street gives them twenty plus a signing bonus. My support people expect similar treatment. New college grads want $45-50K. Benefits keep costing more as we attempt to retain through an attractive total compensation package. Same story when I chat with my counterparts around the country. So what part of the population is taking the deduct to balance these huge increases? Yes, something is real suspicious.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:16 - ID#254269)
Today's WSJ ( print edition ) has one of those "pull-out" sections ( 18 pages about China. One feature article suggests that China will not devalue.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:17 - ID#371247)
Amazed in the Taco Belt
I am amazed with all the bad new coming out of the Orient that people in the USA are beating themselves up to buy stock. I had breakfast with a seasoned stock broker a couple of morning ago. He thinks the market is feeding on itself and will impode about like it went up. Earnings reports are not all that encouraging and he is miffed that given the earning to share value ratios which are shrinking that stocks continue to escalate. 1929. Sounds kind of familiar. Maybe Herbert Klinton will be able to save the say.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:20 - ID#284255)
Avid Chatter
SOME heavy gold buying at 310.35 .60 .90 and 311.15. London open bullish

From Investech Research ( I think ) : The DJIA in the 16 years from 1982 has exceeded the previous record-setting percent-age gain achieved by Japan's Nikkei index in its 15- year advance from 1974 to 1989! The Nikkei rose 1009% in that period, while the Dow has risen 1082% from 1982. This makes the U.S. stock mania the biggest in all recorded history, at least for a major market. From 1974, the same date used for the Nikkei, the Dow is up 1490%, while as of today, the Nikkei's net advance is 345.43%, one-quarter as much. Thus, from the perspective of an investor at the 1974 lows, the Dow today is four times as expensive as the Nikkei, which is still overpriced.

Yes, it is hard to time a grand supercycle.

I don't expect it will be the disaster that you've been waiting on. October lows may be all we get.

the october lows were nothing because everybody bought the next day; otherwise we would have japanese circumstances

people won't recognize the correction until they can look back and say. That was a top back there.

Clinton Schedules News Conferance for 1 P.M. CDT President Clinton is holding a full dress news conference today--his first since Feb 6--and at a time when questions have been piling up regarding allegations that he had an affair with a former White House intern. Also in the East Room gathering, Clinton will be responding to a barrage of personal attacks from GOP leadership and will have a few arrows in his bow on congressional failure to act on pressing issues. FWIW for you contrarians means up i suppose

Well at least he will have his clothes on to do it
who knows what is going on beind the lecturn?
... yah that would be a sight for sore eyes.

U.S. 1Q Real GDP up 4.2% vs up 3.7% in 4Q
U.S. Employment Cost Index Rosse .7% Up 3.3 YOY 1st 1/4
Wages Rose .8%
GDP +4.2 ( 3.7 Q4 ) ;
GDP durables ( 1.9 ) ; GDP investment +17.6 ( -0.8;
GDP inventories && ( 74 ) ; Exports -3.4% ( 8.3 )
Exports lowest since 1993

just love this action in spoos
guess they like them numbers . should we have thought any different

I swear this happens" when Clinton seems to be in trouble-- market rallies. When Clinton seems to be in limbo-- market doesn't exactly rally. Trouble and limbo-- the two states of Clinton anyway.

Geez look at the GDP!
the bear just got gored...
look at the futures......ballistic
looks to be too good ...out...
Is it Whipsaw or Whiplash coming.

You think the fed is going to tighten because of the GDP?

but this move here in my mind can foreshadow a very serious tank. Say we get a spike bar on the daily today and it stays gapped above yesterday's high-- that usually ain't a great bull sign. There, give bears something to hope for.

Normally a disaster. Because people earn so much with stocks they dont need any income anymore; Bubble economy a la carte

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:21 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Hipshot -- I would say that loyalty to a company went out the window when loyalty to the employee went the same way during the last big set of down-sizing for an extra bit of profit. It all cuts the same way.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:26 - ID#22956)
TeddO......before ya leave......
Can you give us ANOTHER ANALysis of the gold market and it's short and long term direction as it relates to the 7G's and the UME backing w/ percentage of gold as it relates to how many gold bars it would take, on your return, to buy one of those new VW Bugs and how this will effect Juan Valdez's coffee beans in Venezuela in September during a torrential rain pour while floating flottsam and flux down the Nile in Africa on the first WEdnesday of each month starting in year 2000 after the Y2K bug has eaten all CB's gold sending the price rocketing to 30g's and thus making JL or LJ or that poor college-kid sap to back up the brinks truck to Monex using his food stamps ( cause he got no colidge ejukashun ) to buy all the gold left in fort knox. ......duh wait a second.....where was I????? Oh yeah....gonna miss you dude.
All: Ted has dubbed me his official Kitco voice in the months during his departure. I have full legal, ethical, and immoral rights to post anything I 'think' Ted would want to say to ANYONE until his return ( BIG SMILE THINGY ) ........of course I will use all disclaimers and all kitcoites should hold ONLY Ted PERSONALLY responisible for any BAD market calls. Defer ANY slander lawsuits to his former address....the Judge will be his legal council, judge, trial , and jury and HANGMAN.....should the need arise. Not to worry, I know Ted like the back of my hand.....remember last time I had to speak for Ted?? Smooth as silk........ ( cough-cough ) ..........

see ya buddy.....I'll do ya right ( wink ) more thing......

GO GOLD. Lakers in Six..... ( finals ) . gather my TeddO THOUGHTS
akatheSwan'sIslandMouth 'bout those Bonds30yr?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:26 - ID#254269)
"The Wisdom of Wall Street is decidely short on Cash"
is the title of Your Money Matters tory on Page C1 of today's WSJ. Talks about how most funds are low on cash as a percentage of assets.
Quote; " Investment managers need to cut cash to the bone or there's no chance that they'll beat their benchmarks." according to one Morgan Stanley stock analyst.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:30 - ID#153102)
@Everythings Gonna Be Alright
Like HighRise said, they are betting it all.
So, maybe the federal government is the dipster.
Buying through the banks with fed funds.
And we will wake up one day and USG will own the DOW.
I'm trying to think of a reason it couldn't be done.
Darned if I can.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:30 - ID#213265)
@the scene
I do think platinum turned the corner for the next move up yesterday after the June dipped below 400. This next move up should be quite nice!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:32 - ID#298259)
8:30 numbers out today -- continued high growth with low inflation

employment cost index .7 vs expected .9
GDP 4.2 vs expected 3.3
GDP chain deflator .9 vs expected 1.2
initial jobless claims 319K vs expected 310K

jim c
(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:42 - ID#69280)
New Eurodollar
Good morning all: I believe it is do or die time for gold as soon as the EU meets next week. If the new dollar isn't backed by substantial gold, what other backing would lend it credibility? The current Asian crisis proves that paper doesn't work, I would think gold would be the only alternative. You'd think the CBer's would know this.

My breakdown would be 37% gold, 28% us$, 23% yen, 12% misc. ( give or take 2% ) .

Therefore, I predict a surge in the price of gold as early as next week. Farfel, maybe this surge in gold price will coincide with your squeeze scenerio. If I'm way off base, please let me know. I'd like to get opinions to what other people think the breakdown will be. Have a great day. INMVHO.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:44 - ID#210235)
You know that you can get internet satellite service to your island home, right? Maybe if you get cabin fever next winter. That hermit neighbor won't be much fun to visit. Will miss your sunrises, Ted. Take care, now, you hear?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:44 - ID#238295)
Insiders bearish
Stocks may be booming today, but insiders quite bearish.

My take is that Greenie will not agreesively tighten until gold reaches $340-350 and bond yields break above 6.25%. Probably a few months off. Dow should make a run at 10,000 over this period.

When the Fed does start tightening both stocks and gold will back off. But gold probably will back off a lot less than stocks and recover much faster. I see gold dropping from $340-350 this summer to $320-325 by early 1999, and then surging above $400 later in the year. By contrast I doubt that stocks will rally back to anything near Dow 10,000 after troughing.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:52 - ID#284255)
continued high growth with low inflation

You mean:
Continued high growth of the Dow
And low inflation for the POG

But what of beanie babbies
Or the cost of living???

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:54 - ID#153102)
@The MarketView from Mozelland
From time to time people post, it's all perception.
From time to time people post, these markets make no sense.

Well, I have decided perceptions are all about expectations. Illusions and mirages are all about expectations. If people expect something that calls itself a market to be a market, then they will still see a market there long after there is no longer a market. So long as everyone still talks about the market, the perception that there is a market will remain intact. For an activity to truly be a market, it must represent the sum of voluntary choices by all participants. By this criterion, there is no stock market and there is no gold market. The danger to the American market will arise on the day too many people decide there is no longer a market. The insiders have known for quite a while. But, when everyone is hanging on the coattails of the PPT, people will stop perceiving it as a market and see it for what it is: another entitlement program.

Gusto Oro
(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:55 - ID#377235)
Beanie Baby Bubble. Get out while you can!
This market is in trouble. Buy a Krugerrand!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:57 - ID#7568)

The few days have been very instructive with regards to what is driving the gold market. When the story came out that the Fed had moved to a tightening bias in its last meeting, rates immediately surged and gold dropped like a stone. Subsequently, a counter story appeared, which spun the leak into a continuance of the status quo, and voila, gold recovered. Today's release of the ECI for the first quarter, even though it was 'disinflationary' has done nothing to damage gold, and in fact has supported it. The reason for this is clear. The new numbers remove any reason for the Fed to tighten, and thus begin to reign in the surging liquidity, which has been a constant of late.

With the gold stocks acting quite well, it appears that investment flows are starting to turn positive in the precious metals sector. Someone commented the PAASF was extremely well bid. The other day I looked at a money flow chart into SSC and observed that it was extremely strong. As has been commented upon here before, investment flows in this sector can overwhelm any and all of the fundamental drivers of the market, including central banks. Given the amount of raw liquidity that exists in the world, should investment flows into the sector gather a head of steam, the results will be spectacular. Knowing that a lot of hot money is managed purely on a momentum basis, the rally will feed upon itself. As long as the Fed is seen with its hands off, this nascent bull market will continue. Should the Fed step in and lean against the tide, all bets are off.

Those looking for a deflationary collapse as a catalyst for gold, should take note of the action over the last few days. Rising interest rates, which threaten the continued expansion of liquidity and would be the logical trigger of any massive credit contraction are no friend of the gold bug.

The silver market has been fairly featureless of late, although the large longs are still content to sit and nibble whenever the price comes to them. The rest of the market is apparently getting somewhat short. The last large transaction was done with 610 being about the floor price. This level has again been supported by the long contingent. A close over 640 would probably put a bit of a charge back into this market. Until then, patience.

There has been a fair bit of discussion here of delivery notices for gold exceeding warehouse supplies. Unfortunately the total number of delivery notices is not a particularly good indicator of anything. If one accepts delivery and then retenders, this zero effect transaction will in fact be counted as two deliveries.

While I disagree with the thesis that oil producers are going to change the face of the gold market, ANOTHER has made one comment which I find to be right on the mark. In response to the Andy Smith point of, what will we the European CB's do with all their excess gold, he asked the poignant question of 'what will the European CB's do with all their excess dollar reserves'. Worldwide dollar reserves are now at something like 70% of all CB reserves. This is an all time high as far as I know. This represents something on the order of 1.5 trillion dollars of greenback liquidity which could potentially be released into the market.

When the SE Asian economies collapsed, they were force to liquidate most anything they could get their hands upon in order to come up with dollars. Should countries with massive dollar reserves ( China, Japan ) come under pressure, they too will be forced to liquidate assets. However, the thing that they will liquidate will be dollar denominated paper. This would have a vastly different effect on the price of the dollar than the equivalent event in SE Asia.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:58 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Mozel -- Re: Your 'market' view. Probably a very accurate assessment!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:58 - ID#410114)

How do your junk silver quotes, compare with those posted in the WSJ everyday?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 10:59 - ID#318183)
We have never conversed here - but if you are really leaving kitco - I would like to tell you that I have appreciated your thoughtful, insightful and interesting posts here - I think if you HINT the people here might fork over a few extra of their ozs to get you a satelite link !! *s*

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:02 - ID#347267)
Oil - Gold ; Question for Another
In case no one noticed, when the Dow was down 179 a few days ago, major oils were UP; Cause and effect or effect and cause?? See:
On January 12, 1998 both gold and oil put in a significant ( IMO ) low. The subsequent rise appears to be happening in both. For Mr. Another a question: Is this not as it should be? And should we not expect a continuation of this correlation? If so, then should we not also see ( soon ) gold UP when the Dow is DOWN??
Respectfully; Mtn Bear

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:07 - ID#284255)
U.S. stock index futures up sharply early on data
U.S. stock index futures were sharply higher and just off session highs, bolstered by U.S. economic data that eased concerns about a quick move by the Federal Reserve to restrict credit.

``There's still a general feeling that the market needs more of a correction,''
Gusto Oro
Waiting till they get cheaper. ( :^ )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:10 - ID#254269)
Mozel, you're right. When expectations and reality are not aligned, then you have frustration and credibility shortfalls. It is far better to deal with "what is" than to try to deal with "what should be".

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:14 - ID#284255)
Bundesbank interest rates steady,no comment on EMU
The Bundesbank said on Thursday its council left German discount and Lombard rates unchanged.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:15 - ID#36156)
Anyone - GLG
Any opinons on Glamis out there? I bought into it last month and it seems to be moving nicely. It's at $4.50 right now, up from the $3.50/share I paid for it. I think I like it.

HenryD - Go Gold!

Disclaimer: ; )

ACHTUNG! Alle touristen und non-technischen Looken Peepers.

Das PM Market ist nicht fur the dumnkopfen odder faintenhartzen. Est ist
gefullt mit spitzensparken, gut callen, und nicht so gutten callen by das
experten hier. Est ist grosse important dat du nicht spiel with plookats
du have nicht van dieses opinionen du diggen. Ist nicht meine fault van
du rubbernecking sightseenen nincompoopers loosen sie shirtsens offen sie
backs. So keepen das cottenpicken plookats in dem pockets, relaxen und enjoy das Kitcomenschen und BartMan shau.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:16 - ID#254269)
Interpretation of Kitco shorthand please !
@ Suspicious; what does ROFLMAO mean ? ( your 9.52 ) . Thanks.

Paul Gold__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:18 - ID#21484)
DROOY Quarterly results
For those who missed the earlier post: Durban Roodepoort Deep first quarter results are available on the web at

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:19 - ID#298259)
Sorry, I should have prefaced that with "gov't says"...not Frustrated says. As for low rent, renter's and auto insurance up... well above inflation. My utilities up and some of my favorite grocery items all up. I'm not liking this low I will keep buying that worthless gold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:20 - ID#401460)
April 30, 1998
11:08AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents







(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:24 - ID#255151)

1. Ted--Will drink a Fosters in your honor tonight. Kitco will shine a little less brightly the next few months. Au Revoir 2. Damn I can't stand whiners. Blaming everyone else for your troubles seems to be the theme of the late 90's. 1980 was almost a generation ago, grow up, be a man, take responsibility, get over it, a fool and his money soon part. I'm thinking RJ is right on here.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:28 - ID#225252)
Avalon re: "interpretation of ROFLMAO"
ROFLMAO means "Rolling on the Floor Laughing My Hinee Off"
For a more complete list of "chat" shorthand, you may want to see:

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:29 - ID#269409)
Market continues crashing this week.....
hursday April 30, 10:41 am Eastern Time

Dow spikes up more than 100 as rate fears fade

NEW YORK, April 30 ( Reuters ) - The Dow spiked up more than 100 points Thursday in a rally spurred by new data that
showed robust first-quarter growth with little inflationary pressure.

At 1002 EDT/1402 GMT, the Dow was up 103 points or 1.17 percent to 9055. The Nasdaq gained 15.20 points or 0.82
percent to 1866.84. The S&P500 rose 12.34 points or 1.13 percent to 1106.97.

The market had been on edge about a possible interest rate hike as early as May after reports earlier in the week that the
Federal Reserve was now leaning more towards higher rates.

Stocks and bonds reacted euphorically to the first-quarter Employment Cost Index which was weaker than expected at up 0.7
percent compared to up 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

The ECI, the most comprehensive measure of labor costs, had been forecast to rise 0.9 percent.

``Today's data certainly goes a long way towards no move'' on interest rates, said Joseph Barthel, chief investment strategist at
Fahnestock & Co.

The ECI is being closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs that the tight labor market is putting upward pressure on
wages and inflation.

First-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth rose to 4.2 percent from 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, well above the 3.3
percent rate analysts had forecast. But the evidence of robust growth was accompanied by scant signs of inflation.

The GDP price index rose 0.9 percent in the first quarter, its smallest increase since late 1963, while the implicit price
deflator registered a rise of 0.9 percent, the lowest since early 1964. Both were up 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:34 - ID#153102)
Pursuing the direction of your thought, what is Is gold is in the territory of the CB and stocks are in the territory of the Administration. And interest rates on bonds are in no man's land. Interest rates on bonds are the indicator for uncontrolled changes in perception.

Virtually all of the national CB banks are subject to national administrations which borrow from them as captive lenders granting theoretically unlimited credit, granting recipes for cooking the books, etc., but the Bank for International Settlements is subject to no government. Expectations and Reality must match at settlement if no where else. So sooner or later there will be a credit bust. I think they have already invented more gold as paper gold than will validate expectations at all future moments of settlement reality.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:36 - ID#269409)
@ DA / RJ / Realistic
Can't tell ya how refreshing it is to see some intelligent analysis of what's actually happening in these metals markets,... instead of the usual uninformed speculations from the "1-900-psychic-oil-friends" network. Hope you guy's keep hanging around.

DA, your overall analysis earlier makes more sense than anything I've read this week here.

RJ, sometimes logic and reason has to be delivered via a double barreled shotgun in order to get the recipient's attention. ( And queit their ignorant ramblings ) Keep blastin away dude! Keeps the forum sharp.....maybe more folks will think before posting unsubstantiated garbage.

REALISTIC .... where are you??? Come back and help make the fulness and richness of the forum complete!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:38 - ID#57232)
From the Kitco scan this AM
Ted: I will miss you too! Somehow, I think it will not be long before you have a satellite uplink, or something similar. Please take care and avoid arguments with Mooses or other not so wildlife! And Lyme disease. That was very generous of Donald to offer you snail mail.

RJ: Hope you liked my post about physics. Saw your repost about the Schrodinger's Cat paradox. I think Aurator is right -- did you meet some sweet young thing on the beach? Also -- Monex is a large company, and has been in business for many years. Well respected overall as far as I can tell. But -- given how large Monex is -- isn't it possible that some of the individuals that work at Monex might not have your standards? I appreciate your counterpoint for Farfel's bullishness -- but I think you may now be overdoing it, just as Farfel overdoes it.

Wouldn't it be better just to say that gold will go up or down, not just up? How about recommending some Platinum equities companies -- Rustenberg, etc., for those of us who like the leverage of equities.

sharefin: I guess you noticed that the DOW was taking off -- I haven't seen the markets yet today. I think we had our second ping, though it was a weak one. I still think we are repeating the folly of the 20's with coming market blowoff. The magnitude of this blowoff will determine when the correction ( or worse ) occurs. I think this time the blowoff will be bullish for gold, just as Oldman predicted. His insight is uncanny. By the way -- a little progress with the wavelet stuff. The optimal choice of coefficients requires using at least one year of data, but less than several years. There is an optimal choice of somekind for how much data you use to follow an index, because you want to do it during a period when the rules have not changed. Haven't had time to program or find a dynamic way to do this -- yet.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:49 - ID#220325)
APH-- Congratulations on your S&P call last night
Last night APH said "SnP should also see it's low this week before a rally into mid May." GREAT CALL!

Mike Stewart
(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:50 - ID#270253)
Gold Fields Limited
I have been getting quotes for GDFDY ( Gold Fields Limited ) from Checkfree's Quote Server, but they have been stuck at $6.875 for a week now. I can get a quote in SA Rand, but I want one from the Nasdaq bulletin board. Anyone know where I can get one? ( This company is not Gold Fields of South Africa GLDFY. ) Yahoo and don't work.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:50 - ID#240120)
Hello Mr. Humble.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:51 - ID#269409)
@ Snowbird, APH
Amen to that. Another excellent market analyst/trader...that APH. Calls made in advance, based on sound rationale, and with an impressive accuracy rate.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:53 - ID#269409)
@ Jeremy
You're far too kind, there are many here who exercise an even greater level of arrog.... uh I mean humility than I do.....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 11:54 - ID#318183)
Mike Stewart
There is no quote for gdfdy - wasn;t that one of the stocks that merged in the big merger in SA??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:25 - ID#408285)
South Africa - business news
Can anyone supply url's to give me a better grasp as to what is happening in SA on a continuing basis? thahkyou.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:26 - ID#269409)
Bullish Gold & Silver comments in here....
Thursday April 30, 9:56 am Eastern Time

NY precious metals mixed midmorning

NEW YORK, April 30 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals were little
changed midmorning Thursday.

``Precious metals are pretty quiet this morning, with not much impact felt from the US
economic data, which was mixed, but gold still looks well supported by one investment
bank in particular in the past few days,'' said one COMEX floor trader.

The US Employment Cost Index rose 0.7 cpt in the first quarter, less than expected,
relieving fears of inflation and an imminent interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve.

But US GDP rose a higher-than-expected 4.2 pct in the first quarter.

COMEX June gold was up 60 cents at $312.20 an ounce, after trading a $311.40-313.30
early range.

Support was seen around $309.00, with resistance around $313.00 near term, though some
daily momentum oscillators have turned negative in the past few days, suggesting the latest
leg of the recovery in gold prices may be running out of steam, analysts said.

June gold's five-day moving-average remains above both its 20-day though, suggesting the
uptrend since mid-March remains intact for now.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $310.30/80 an ounce, compared with the
London Thursday morning fix at $310.70 and Wednesday's New York close at

Spot gold prices have climbed back above their 200-day moving average in the past 10
days for the first time since 1996, suggesting a longer term recovery in gold prices may
have begun, analysts said.

Implied gold lease rates remained around 0.85 percent per annum for one month and 1.90
pct for 12 months, after declining steadily in recent weeks, reflecting short covering by
speculators in the OTC market and additional producer buy-backs of forward hedging
positions, as well as increased market liquidity from central bank lending.

The focus remains on the weekend's meeting in Brussels which will confirm which
European countries will participate in EMU ( European Monetary Union ) and possibly
make decisions on setting up the European Central Bank ( ECB ) , though a decision on how
much gold the ECB will hold in its reserves is not likely until the first ECB board meeting
due in June, analysts said. Meanwhile, COMEX July silver was steady at $6.240 an ounce,
after trading a $6.170-6.260 early range.

Silver prices were expected to remain well supported above $6.00 an ounce based on low
levels of COMEX stocks and identifiable bullion inventories, prospects for another
supply/demand deficit this year which will drawdown inventories further and the
substantial long position held by US billionaire Warren Buffett, which is not likely to be
liquidated at current levels, analysts said.

In the platinum group metals markets, NYMEX July platinum was up 30 cents at $405.0,
while NYMEX June palladium was down $2.15 an ounce at $304.75.

In the physical market, palladium lease rates remained quoted close to 200 pct per annum
for one month, reflecting the ongoing supply shortage due to the suspension of Russian
palladium and platinum exports since last December.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:31 - ID#318183)
Here is a start for you

Mike Stewart
(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:31 - ID#270253)
Gold Fields Limited was the result of the Kloof/Beatrix/Oryx merger. They also have a large chunk of Dreifontein. I e-mailed shareholder relations and was told that a full "normal" Nasdaq listing was scheduled for this summer. Until then, it trades on the bulletin board. This is a huge mining operation that is rarely mentioned in these parts. That will change with a better listing and some liquidity.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:37 - ID#384350)
@mozel, yer 10:30, Fed Intervention
Mr Mozel, I have been thinking of the same thing ever since the BOJ was rumoured to be trying to support the Nikkei in March. Couldn't the Fed, or it's banking interests, be doing the same thing?

They would be literally printing paper and exchanging it for industry. I ask you is there really much difference between the Western world's New Socialism and the Socialism of the former Soviet states.

Industry is controlled by the elite. Bankers just put their croneys in management positions, The companies may own castles, sportscars, artwork, and are privy to huge expense accounts with which they travel, wine and dine pretty young things.

Now, AG has said that if an emergency arises, the Fed could just go into the private sector and buy things ( eg a banks bad loans at 70 cents on the dollar ) .

Could they not also, buy a company ( or majority stake ) like Boeing if it were to hypothetically run into problems with its interest payments, and were on the verge of bankruptcy?

I sometimes wonder if the West brokered a deal with the Soviets. Something like, "Okay, your Socialism isn't working. Let's try OUR Socialism, it's more covert, we call it Democracy. Together we shall rule the world."

And thus the USSR threw in the towel, but instead of dividing up the country's wealth to its people, it was one big political grab.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:37 - ID#408285)
Appreciate your url's. Have checked them and they will be most helpful.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:40 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index up 5.78% to 1080!
One more RSA site:

Mike Stewart
(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:45 - ID#270253)
Quotes for GDFDY
Discovery!! Quotes for Gold Fields Limited are available from the quote service.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:50 - ID#244242)
Trading Volume Spike
Seems there was a top put in at 12:40 EST when volume on the Dow spiked to almost 3,000,000 share in one minute. After that, volume and the index sorta kinda started fading...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:51 - ID#342315)
Waiting on a call from "the man". I could not find tellurides in their lit. Have asked for a geologist fieldman, Tellurides are prominant in Grass Valley and BC is not that far from there. They have a lot of higrade and I suspect tellurides are involved. The one I spoke to did'nt know so when I hear, I'll let you know. Tellurides make some really nice gold. Calaverite can run 50% gold. You have to really know your stuff to get it in the field.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:51 - ID#408285)
Also appreciate your url. thanks

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:52 - ID#410198)
Are there scum bags in the gold question,no better no worse than any other investment busness,I was taught by the best FIRST BOSTON CORP,it's a tough way to make a living,you appeal to basic human frailties,fear and greed,the same tactics are taught by every investment house,Merril "lynch",Prudential Scumcurieties,Dowe,Cheatum,and Howe etc.......bought a used car lately,visited a lawyer,doctor......and the big one any one here bitch how Uncle Sam's being riping you off.......come on guys we have bigger fish to fry

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:56 - ID#285121)
Robnoel_A / Please refrain
from using the word scum bag. It reminds us of who we have as President.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 12:58 - ID#258427)
Thanks BCMD
I am still holding it...up 16% at the moment ( for today ) ...little under water for the past several weeks...Keep up the good detective work, huh!!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:01 - ID#212197)
@jim c (New Eurodollar): Let's speculate about the coming WAR on GOLD
It's also my own conviction, and I even think that there is a broad agreement on this site, that the EURO can only fly with a convincing gold backing. ANOTHER said the same thing. Many others said the same thing.

Now, how will they do it?

I think the best way to do it is for all the eleven nations to ransfer all their gold to the new CB and receive EUROs in return to back the national currencys for the coming three years. That would give the EURO a convincing start as a "reserve" currency. And it would mean a 100% gold coverage of the EURO.

In order to combine this transfer with a consolidation of the national finances, they could evaluate the new EURO with the equivalent of US$360, which would mean a big book gain for the Germans and the French, and would keep Italy out of trouble.

This would be a smart and bold move but it would mean that the hidden war on gold becomes more open. The different factions would be challenged to show were they stand. It seems pretty clear were the oil producing countries would stand. But what about AG and the international bankers behind him. And what about the USG?

It is a petty that we have here on this site the most brilliant knowledge about the legality and constitutionality of US monetary policies. I'm full of admiration for this knowledge and the assessment resulting from this knowledge. First of all, I'm thinking here of Mr. mozel.

But when the war on gold becomes an international affair, which is very well possible from next week on, we will miss a lot when the real movers will remain hidden behind the government actions. I think our analysis hasn't penetrated reality down to the level of the bankers and the factions of bankers. To know exactly where the USG breakes the original constitution and betrays the people of the US is not enough. Reality of this century teaches us that we cannot expect anything else in the future. I think it would be more important to assess how the USG will be urged to do what forced by whom. The people of the US have anyhow lost their rights on the 23rd of December 1913. And sice then more and more and more.

I'm European. I have a lot of hopes, expectaitions focused on the EURO, especially and only, since I know about the probable EURO link to gold. I think we here at kitco would do our own future analysis a great favour if we would clarify a few more things about the war of the bankers among themselves and against the rest of the world before the "rubber hits the road". It will not be a financial war between Europe and the USA, but the allmighty media wil portray it like that.

Alberich the Dwarf

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:03 - ID#24135)
Oracle speaks
for Gunga Din
It was din din din ...
welcome to kitco ... here's some slack ..

you said ...

" Have to ask you a
question. Is it possible that part of the reason for the
difference in valuation has to do with confidence that
management can get the gold OUT of the ground
efficiently? Just asking!'

Correct answer .. Anybody that thinks that
NA miners know more about gold mining than south
africans is an idiot. Good investment opportunities
present themselves infrequenly .. if you wish
to waste your time questioning WHY an anomoly
exists in the market rather than exploiting it
.. do so .. by all means ..
I dont know if gold is going UP or not .. I hope
so .. but I do know that the South African mines
will be rerated upwards relative to the north american
mines. That is what is happening.. look at
earning reports .. dont listen to me .. do your
own homework... and that was your first and last
question to the oracle.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:07 - ID#318183)
It looks like the xau will fill the gap at 88 1/2 - now at 89.53

Charles Keeling
(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:09 - ID#344225)
For those of you who have not yet read the WSJ
article on the EURO meeting.

I hope it's a successful attempt since this
will be very important to us goldbugs.
The US Dollar may no longer be KING.

Before celebrating too much, consider the
possibility that the Y2K bug may derail the
EURO target dates.

The Following is from the WSJ.

Single Currency

Making the Euro

by Robert Mundell

The European Council will
meet tomorrow in London to
announce its final decisions
regarding which countries
are eligible to proceed to
European Monetary Union,
and Saturday the selected
countries will meet in
Brussels to implement the
decision. The designated
countries will lock their
exchange rates to each
other on July 1, 1998; the
European Currency Unit will
become the euro on Jan. 1,
1999, when the process of
replacing national currencies
by euros within banks will
begin. On Jan. 1, 2002, the
circulation of euro
banknotes and coins will
begin, and six months later,
the legal tender status of
national banknotes and
coins will end. By the middle
of 2002, the technical
transition will be complete.

Much sooner, though, EMU
will impose a fundamental
change in the monetary
policies of its members. A
single currency implies a
single policy. In the
transition period when
national currencies and
euros are both in circulation,
the money-creating powers
of the national central banks
will be transferred to the
authority of the European
Central Bank ( ECB ) .

When EMU begins,
equilibrium among its
members will be automatic.
A country in deficit will
experience a decline in its
money supply, which
reduces spending and
corrects the deficit;
conversely, a country in
surplus will experience an
increase in its money supply
increasing spending and
eliminating the surplus. A
monetary union makes use
of exactly the same
adjustment mechanism that
applies between regions
within a single country.

A monetary union will of
course have to be concerned
about the balance of
payments of the union as a
whole. A common mistake is
to think that floating
equilibrium. Even if the ECB
eschews intervention in the
foreign exchange market,
surpluses or deficits will
appear whenever foreign
central banks accumulate or
run down euros. Because in
the long run the euro is
likely to be widely used as a
reserve by central banks,
the European Union should
expect eventually to get into
the same situation as the
U.S., with a chronic
balance-of-payments deficit
fully financed by euro
accumulation abroad.

Stroke for Fiscal Prudence

A monetary union ( like a
currency board
arrangement ) removes a
major source of
macroeconomic instability
by barring central bank
financing of fiscal deficits.
To the extent that
governments will no longer
be able to run up large
public debts and force the
central bank to inflate their
burden away, it will be a big
move in the direction of
fiscal prudence.

There are, however, two
moral hazard problems that
will probably be aggravated
by monetary union. They
revolve around the two
types of risk faced by
bondholders: currency and
default risk. These risks
give rise to higher
government bond yields.
Whether currency or default
risk is more important
depends both on the
exchange rate system and
on the incentive for default.

Government default risk can
be measured by comparing
the yields on government
and top-grade corporate
bonds denominated in the
same currency. Government
default risk appears when
the yield on government
bonds rises relative to
corporate bonds. Near the
eve of EMU, Belgium and
Italy, the two countries with
the highest default risk as
measured by the ratio of
debt to gross domestic
product, had higher yields on
government bonds, relative
to top-grade corporate
bonds, than most of the
other EU members.

Currency risk appears in
interest rates much earlier
than default risk does. By
contrast to default, little
obloquy is attached to
inflation or devaluation.
Markets therefore expect
depreciation long before
default risk has appeared
strongly. Because the
currency risk premium in
interest rates is an early
warning indicator of
unsustainable monetary or
fiscal policies, and because
monetary union removes
currency risk, countries will
be relieved of an important
constraint on fiscal deficits.
The removal of currency
risk creates one moral
hazard problem associated
with EMU.

But there is also a moral
hazard problem associated
with default risk. With all
EU public debts
denominated in euros, there
will be one colossal bond
market, close to if not
greater than the U.S.
government bond market.
Government bonds will still
have a certificate of origin,
of course, and some
countries will persist in
illegal protectionist
measures barring all but
national bonds in insurance
portfolios, but by and large
government debts issued by
different countries of the
same maturity will become
almost perfect substitutes.
Default by a member state
would be a political
catastrophe for the union;
the market will persevere in
the belief that when the
chips are down the union will
act as lender of last resort.
This will further weaken the
imperative for fiscal

The free-rider problem
associated with the
reduction of currency and
default in a monetary union
made recourse to some
element of centralized
control necessary. Hence
the Stability and Growth
Pact, which will penalize with
fines countries that have
tolerated excess deficits.
With a debt-GDP ratio for
the EU at 72% today ( it was
less than 60% when the
Maastricht Treaty was
signed in 1992 ) , the stability
pact penalties will have to be
imposed rigorously. While
some allowance has to be
made for countries in
recession, penalties should
be as automatic as possible
in order to avoid the
intraunion political
pressures that are bound to
accompany discretion and
majority voting.

Monetary policy will have to
take into account several
liquidity effects associated
with the introduction of the
euro. First, there will be a
one-time liquidity effect
associated with the
replacement of national
currencies by euros. The
replacement of the total
stock of national currencies
by euros will increase total
liquidity. This is because a
euro, with a larger
transactions domain, will be
more liquid than any of the
currencies it replaces.
When, say, 500 billion euros
worth of national currencies
are replaced by 500 billion
euros, European liquidity
will be increased just as if
there had been a sudden
increase in the European
money supply. ECB
monetary policy will have to
be tighter to take account of
this factor at the outset.

A similar effect will be
experienced in the bond
market. Like all assets,
bonds have a liquidity
dimension. With the
redenomination of national
debts from local currencies
to euros, the liquidity of this
debt will be larger than the
liquidity of the combined
national public debts and the
transformation is bound to
create a revolution in world
capital markets.

The centralization of
reserves involves liquidity
effects associated with the
three main types of
reserves: foreign exchange
held in European currencies,
foreign exchange held in
non-European currencies
( mainly deutsche marks ) and
gold. Pooling foreign
exchange held in marks and
other European currencies
will reduce net reserves of
Europe. Once EMU is
formed, intraunion deficits
and surpluses will be netted
out, and reserve needs for
the union as a whole will be
considerably smaller than
the sum of the reserve
needs of individual

If external ( mainly dollar )
reserves were at an
appropriate level before the
union, they will be excessive
after it. The same holds for
gold reserves, of which the
EU countries hold almost
half the world's monetary
reserves. Any immediate
action to dispose of the part
of these reserves that are
considered excessive would
be damaging to exchange
rate stability and a suitable
subject for international

A related factor is the
change in need for reserves
of the European System of
Central Banks. After it has
been successfully launched,
the euro will itself become a
reserve currency of choice
for many countries around
the world. Europe will now
benefit from the "exorbitant
privilege" to run a "deficit
without tears." Reserve
currency status is a kind of
widow's cruse that keeps the
owner in perpetual liquidity.
Judging by the past
experience of reserve
centers, which have
frequently got by on
negative net reserves,
Europe will be able to float
its own IOUs to pay for
future deficits as they might

The liquidity factors suggest
that in the transition phase
there will be excess liquidity
that could lead to inflation.
Over the longer run,
however, this danger of
inflation has to be set
against the demand for euro
reserves on the part of the
rest of the world. There is
bound to be a large and
growing demand for euros to
hold in central-bank
accounts that will eventually
more than make up for
inflationary liquidity factors
inside Europe. Because the
external demand will take
time to develop, however,
immediate policy should err
on the conservative side.

Throughout history the
world economy has seen a
succession of important
currencies that have
attained the status of
international currencies.
Usually these currencies
have been associated with
great powers in their
ascendancy. That was the
case with shekels, darics,
drachmas, denarii, dinars,
ducats, deniers, thalers,
livres, pounds and dollars.
Five common denominators
have been associated with
the success of these
currencies: a large
transactions domain, a
stable monetary policy, the
absence of arbitrary
exchange restrictions and
controls, a powerful central
state and a fallback value in
terms of one of the precious

Size is an index of the
currency's ability to act as a
cushion against shocks. Just
as the level of a large lake
will be affected by a falling
meteor of given size by less
than the level of a small
lake, so currencies with
thick markets ( large
transactions areas ) are less
volatile than currencies with
thin markets. The
transactions domain of the
dollar, based on U.S. GDP,
is almost twice as large as
its nearest rival, the yen,
and four times as large as
the mark; moreover, once a
currency has become th

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:10 - ID#26793)
London closing prices and comments.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:11 - ID#286279)
See ya later alligator.
Don't take no wooden nickels.
And remember- There's strength in numbers... ;- )


John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:14 - ID#24135)
Business Day
for Rla

This is the best site for RSA news

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:15 - ID#269409)
@ Robnoel
How bout those ads we hear all the time pushing gasoline options in the spring, heating oil in the fall, soybeans due to El Nino...and on and on....the vast majority of folks who fall for these scams will lose, and lose big......

It was "Bache" silver option salesman who taught me my lesson in 1981. In my case, I was fortunate enough to recover my money after getting a lawyer...because I had specifically instructed the "broker" to purchase a 9 month call, and instead he arbitrarily got me into a 3 month call without my consent...their own phone tape hung em!

Ironically, silver made a big move my way, and I STILL only broke even after comissions, premiums, and spread. I would recommend commodity options to NO ONE...except experts who can afford to lose everything they put in and then some ( Unless your name is Hillary Clinton of that case turning a grand into a hundred grand in a day or two should be no problem... )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:16 - ID#373403)
Revenues up, Wages down, DOW up 175
Hooray! The economy is booming and the common man is not benefitting!

In his speech, entitled ``The Challenge of Success,'' Summers noted some parallels between the current boom and the Great Depression of the 1930s, and said prosperity without purpose may be ``hollow and short-lived.''

The US Employment Cost Index rose 0.7 cpt in the first quarter, less than expected, relieving fears of inflation and an imminent interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve. But US GDP rose a higher-than-expected 4.2 pct in the first quarter.

Another view of this data may suggest a further tightening of corporate profitability. Is it positive to increase sales by cutting price? Only at higher levels of volume. From a microeconomic example, my jewelry store could receive twice as much revenue if I slashed my prices to very low profitability. This is o.k. if I make up the difference in volume. If my volume increase is not sufficient to make up for lost profit, I go home with less.

On a macroeconomic level, revenues ( GDP ) have risen yet the lower profitability of domestic production due to globalization ( competition ) have left insufficient profit for a rise in wages ( costs to a business but profits on a macro level ) . This may seem like good news for the elite but the tightness in profits and the tightness in the labor market make this a very uneasy balancing act.

Centralization in all business results in cost savings and a per unit profit squeeze which further drives out small competition. The problem is when wages do rise, there is little profit padding in the economy to absorb it and inflation will take off. Other cost cutting measures which previously had been a savings but in the future will lead to reduced lag in inflation is low inventory levels. When profit is under attack from competition and wage increases, a business could adjust their inventory downward. Now there is no inventory padding.

I think the Fed is watching this closely and will raise interest rates in May. They have to operate on a one year basis. The current numbers reflect, in my opinion, the last trading down of the low end job, through global exportation of labor jobs. The remaining jobs are those which cannot be exported and all savings due to globalization and technology are factored into the economy already.

The market today is discounting Fed inflation fears just as the market had previously discounted the Asian effect which the Fed had counted on to keep inflation and GDP growth in check.

The upside is limited and the downside is tremendous.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:17 - ID#410198)
suspicious, scum:worthless matter:refuse or vile or despicable people:rabbel,bag:a product made of

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:21 - ID#410198)
LGB,the old saying buyer beware,then again Americans are gullible,get rich at all cost,was it not
guys who thought a rock in a box was a pet

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:21 - ID#340302) can get detailed answers to your various questions.... addressing enquiries to the WOLRD GOLD COUNCIL website, E- Mail Mr. Millings-Stanley. They will provide more "encyclopedic" answers for your various questions. My memory is not as precise as it you used to be concerning exact dates, etc.

However, I will address one aspect of your question concerning the spate of gold leasing initiated by CB's over the past decade. The most interesting aspect of this horrible, ill-considered strategy on the part of CB's ( after all it resulted in billions of dollars of losses in the values of their reserves ) is that it was actively encouraged by a young generation of New Paradigmist "consultants" from Wall Street ( average age 25-40 years old ) and their European counterparts...the "Young Tigers" as I believe they often call themselves. These kids ( and I call them kids because they belong to a generation that has never experienced any genuine material dearth in any, way, shape or form ) saw an opportunity to do the following:

1 ) Impress their elders with their shrewd ability to take a dormant asset
( gold sitting in bank vaults ) and create income from the asset. Naturally, once impressed, the elder investment bankers would promote them through the ranks.

2 ) Grow a burgeoning derivatives market by adding gold paper into the mix. Ergo, create more commissions and income for Wall Street.

3 ) Exert Wall Street control and/or influence over an "adversarial" asset
whose enhanced value is negative to Wall Street interests. In other words, if the prinicpal value of gold escalates, then normally, it siphons investment monies away from stocks and bonds. So, CB gold leasing acts, over the long term, to depress the value of gold.

It has taken several years for the CB elders to wake up and realize that gold leasing is antithetical to the maximization of gold's value...that it is in fact, a practice whose income benefits have been completely overwhelmed by the resultant enormous reduction in principal value/price of gold. Moreover, with the "kids" set free to play without much adult supervision, the resultant explosion in gold paper now dwarfs the underlying physical metal. Personally, I am convinced that if many of the CB elders had a better understanding of what the Wall Street Young Tigers had in mind for the gold market when originally championing the enormous spate of gold leases and related derivative activity, then these same elders would never have allowed things to get this bad...they would have reined in the young fellas a long time ago.

It truly is a house of cards...and fortunately, one of the main players on the gold producer end, Mr. Peter Munk, recently stepped forward boldly to acknowledge that the whole situation was a classic case of central bankers shooting themselves in their feet, with a little help from gold producers. Although he placed most of the blame on the central bankers, as you know, it always takes two to tango. The most clear cut indication of a major gold producer accepting responsibility for faciliating the gold leasing debacle occurred yesterday with admissions from a senior executive at Newmont that forward gold producer sales were the Achilles Heel of the entire industry.

Ultimately, the problems that transpired in the gold market are harbingers of the imminent disaster awaiting Wall Street. The zestful eagerness of Wall Street Young Tigers to jeopardize the value of CB gold is predicated upon nothing more than short-term profit considerations, ego-driven self-promotion for the sake of climbing the Wall Street ladder, facilitation of Wall Street control over an adversarial asset, and ultimately the aggrandizement of mainstream Wall Street investments. These developments are the result of a generation of investment bankers, consultants, etc., that simply "has no fear" where it comes to reining in its voracious appetites and investing in markets beyond the level of normal reason.

Today, the most appropriate slogan for our decade ought to be the inverse of a famous Sixties catch phrase, specifically "Do not trust anyone under the age of 45!"

The inmates are running the Asylum. When hell breaks loose ( as it inevitably must ) , then there will be a very strong atavistic reaction as investors run in droves to seek safety in gold.

Essentially, it is important to remember that gold's value has been suppressed by a generational anomaly...not by any so called "New Paradigm."



(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:35 - ID#408285)
John Disney
Thanks for your url.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:36 - ID#25171)
The war between FRANCE and the other EC countries on who will head the ECB is of great importance to the POG.
TRICHET, in spite of all the harm he is responsible for , has a GOLD friendly attitude as far as EURO backing is concerned.WIM DUISSENBERG has earned a reputation for toughness in managing monetary policy but clearly belongs to the anti GOLD faction.
KOHL said today that the ECB president would be nominated this week end.I think we can expect some volatility next week in the POG.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:37 - ID#254269)
@ ozzie_A; Thanks for your 11.28, IWSMHTTFIO ( I was scratching my head
trying to figure it out ) . I think I missed the glossary whem my computer was down.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:43 - ID#410114)
gold short squeeze

Where can I look to see evidence of BIS and BOT engineering a short squeeze?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:43 - ID#287193)
@John Disney.....I agree, it is a good link...
I am surprised about the bad news reg. RANGOLD...had no idea it was that bad.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:47 - ID#285121)
themissinglink / Remember !
Both of the important economic indicators that you mentioned are from GOVERNMENT supplied data. They may be something like the balanced budget numbers and if you believe them, I have a bridge over the Mississppi River near Dyersburg Tennessee I'd like to sell you.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:47 - ID#258427) talk'n about RANGY??
What news??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:48 - ID#269409)
@ Silver.....goin UP!! out on a limb to make a market call
OK, I've been quiet about this, my current favorite metal for weeks...playing "wait & see" while watching SSC, PAASF, SSRIF, COMEX inventory, producer/investor activity, lease rates, open interest, volume in the short/long war, Hedge fund action, projected consumption/production deficit numbers for 98, Buffet rumors, etc.

Silver has been slowly drifting downward, and has been taking a beating, for weeks, even in the face of Gold's upspike. Now it's time to go out on a limb and make a market call.

Silver has flattened, has shown excellent support at $6.20 level or so, has shaken out most of the short speculators, has become more "tame" and less volatile in it's activity. Yesterday we had the first major drawdown in Comex inventory that we've seen in some time.

IMHO, silver is now readying itself for a May rally, perhaps to the $6.80 level. This will only be a precursor to activities later in 98, when both Gold and Silver will make further up moves, however, SIlver will make the bigger percentage gains and carries less risk due to it's industrial use and supply shortage fundamentals ( IMHO ) .

There are a few downsides.... I find myself disturbed at the poor performance, and low volume today of the silver shares, considering, silver's little blip up, and the fact that they've already come down quite a bit from their lofty highs. Also disturbing, is the previously long term bullish SSC management, forward selling just abobe $6.00 in the possible belief that prices could drop. A good business decision perhaps, but disturbing nonetheless.

However, all said and done, I'm buying some physical today and perhaps some more tomorrow. Sold all my Platinum two weeks ago and using some of those proceeds, so I'll be less "diverse", but that's OK. I fear the Russlies will start shipping in a month or two driving Pt down. We'll see.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:50 - ID#252150)
Donald@"Get rich quick schemes"--Judging by the stratospheric P/E that coke
has attained, I do believe that many investors are hoping that the billion+ chinese will switch from tea to coke.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:52 - ID#290118)
farts, flames and flappers
Dear RJ, et al

The analogy of someone farting amongst friends -

Unless some insensitive nitwit utters some inane comment

that forces everyone to notice

or the farter says "excuse me" and thus draws attention

Nobody takes notice. ( Out of respect for everyone else )

( unless it's really bad and the ventilation worse ) .

I could also say -

Consider the source.

Though some of us may need enlightening about some sources.but one or twice should be adequate. No need to go on a tirade.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:54 - ID#269409)
Homestake...movin on up!
Thursday April 30, 7:31 am Eastern Time

Australia Gold-No fuss over Homestake buy

By James Regan

PERTH, April 30 ( Reuters ) - With little fanfare, U.S.-based Homestake Mining Co ( HM - news ) on Thursday officially
clinched its takeover of Australia's Plutonic Resources Ltd ( PLU.AX ) , making Homestake the world's third largest gold miner

The A$1.2 billion friendly takeover, announced late last year, was approved by the New South Wales Supreme Court
following near-unanimous approval by Plutonic shareholders.

The deal makes Plutonic a subsidiary of Homestake and should boost the San Francisco-based miner's 1998 gold yield to 2.4
million ounces.

It also brings Homestake closer in line with rival Placer Dome Inc ( PDG.TO - news ) in annual production.

Only Newmont Mining Corp ( NGC - news ) , with around four million ounces of yearly output and Barrick Gold Corp
( ABX.TO - news ) at three million ounces are bigger.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:58 - ID#290118)
extra lines
Now why do some of my posts do that? I've noticed others with the same problem. I checked the preview before posting. Back to trial and ( hopefully fewer ) errors. Works better just letting wordwrap do its thing. As soon as I try doing manual line breaks appropriate to the subject, I get extras.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 13:59 - ID#410198)
If this was posted before sorry, Fed.Reserve Y2K page

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:01 - ID#25171)
A lot of people are still wondering wether the creation of the ECB will stop for some time the hatefull war being waged by some central bankers on gold.It is likely that the ECB will refrain from allowing its members to sell GOLD to promote the solidity of the EURO.However a lot of GOLD will stay in each country regional CB but it is well known that this GOLD is also under the control of the ECB and is not being transfered as it would be too much even for the gullible people to admit. One aspect which might have been overlooked in the creation of the ECB is that outstanding repo operations might not be renewed as repo is technically a sell and would need an approval from the ECB as well.

The shorts should run for cover.There is not much time left.The forces leading to a short squeeze in GOLD are tremendous .

If I buy an island and create a central bank,maybe I will be able to buy some BIS equity ?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:06 - ID#269409)
@ Squirrel.... spaces and lines
Kitco has an automatic content analysis function.

If a post is particularly vacuous, Kitco responds by

putting arbitrary lines and empty space in to

emphasize the point that the post is mostly


(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:10 - ID#246224)
Was it you, earlier, who commented that his PM dealer had premiums for gold and silver ( except junk ) ? Could you pass along his name and number? TIA

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:10 - ID#384350)
Orwellian Figures?
Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't US wages recently rising at around an annual clip in the high single digits earlier this year? If this is true, I find it hard to believe that employment costs are relatively benign, ECI at +0.7% for the quarter.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:12 - ID#269409)
The sky be fallin....NOT!
hursday April 30, 1:42 pm Eastern Time

Wall St stocks still bask in "best of all worlds"

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, April 30 ( Reuters ) - Just as market bulls were cowering from rate-hike fears, the U.S. economy once again
reassured Wall Street on Thursday that robust growth, steady corporate profits and low inflation can still go hand in hand.

``The Goldilocks scenario is firmly in place,'' said Courtney Smith, chief investment officer at Orbitex Management, referring
to a ``not too hot and not too cold'' economy.

``The Fed will not raise interest rates. Everybody is worried about wage inflation, but this is not a concern,'' Smith said.

On Monday, the Dow tumbled 147 points on rekindled fears that the Federal Reserve might raise short-term interest rates
after a report that it had shifted its stance from neutral to a tightening bias at its March meeting.

Analysts dismissed the news as a Fed-inspired leak to jawbone stocks lower because it had no real case to raise rates.

Thursday's batch of data appeared to give the Fed no new excuse to hike rates, and the sigh of relief down the Street was

The employment cost index rose 0.7 percent in the first quarter, below analysts' expectations of 0.9 percent. It rose 1.0
percent in the fourth quarter.

The benign data triggered a rally in stocks and bonds.

At midsession Thursday, the Dow was up 175 points at 9125, a gain of 60 on the week, wiping out Monday's knee-jerk selloff.
The interest rate-sensitive 30-year Treasury bond was up 1-19/32, pushing the yield down to 5.96 percent, back below the
psychological six percent level.

But some analysts expressed caution over the latest dose of market euphoria.

``I think the rally in bonds will be temporary and the equity market recovery will be temporary,'' said Christine Callies, chief
investment strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. ``They are discounting the best of all possible worlds,'' she added.

But Merrill Lynch's chief economist, Bruce Steinberg, said the Fed has no reason to raise rates because Thursday's data show
an economy where there is no inflation and no cost pressure to create inflation.

``It's positive for stocks because it should mean that bond yields will come down,'' Steinberg added.

Although inflation is at its lowest level in 35 years, investors have worried that the tight labor market could generate wage

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:13 - ID#230244)

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:13 - ID#246224)
I think you need to declare sovereignty over the island. Also could get a big fat development loan from the IMF or World Bank. Can I be Minster of Finance? :-@ I won't say a word.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:14 - ID#246224)
Basement drying out yet?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:15 - ID#230244)

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:16 - ID#246224)
I'll bring my hammer up one of these weekends .. not that I'd do any work, but will bring it up anyway ( just as a bit of posturing ) ! When do you arrive?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:18 - ID#213265)
@the scene
It would appear that we may finally see the 306 June gold yet by next Tuesday. Or not.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:22 - ID#230244)
AT $310.60

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:26 - ID#368244)
Gold Down
In a word CLINTON .

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:28 - ID#304282)
The xau took a nose dive right before 2 o'clock. Any announcement? This good be a big buying opportunity for silver. It can't stay in the 4 dollar range for long.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:29 - ID#31868)
losing TED, ( nah, an interLUDE) it will take broad shoulders to brace this
foundation of Kitco. All joints in the building must be checked to insure quality and quick access.

This can not be a goodbye, but to ya, an entire bottle of Cuervo will be rafTED and sent your way...check the shoreline daily, hint, check the hemp cord rope holding the rigging together.

A BIG GULP, to ya!


(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:29 - ID#252150)
A great URL that has nifty charts of all the exchanges + AU, oil & the long bond all on 1 screen

Gusto Oro
(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:30 - ID#377235)
Bart, that's not funny. Have you ever been sued for mental anguish? -g- --AG

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:31 - ID#252150)
AU@Not a pretty sight
It would be much niftier if AU did'nt look so ugly.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:34 - ID#289357)

current from

GCM8 309.8

SIK8 6.195

XAU 87.65

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:36 - ID#375108)
Isure, You got it. Bubba's first news conference of the year, Dow ballistic; gold hammered. Coincidence???

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:38 - ID#304282)
What happened to the quotes?
I was starting to get worried.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:41 - ID#246224)
The physical does not make this market, the paper market is what we are in thrall to here and now. Important to recognize that. If folks holding certificates wish to sell then the price drops a bit. If there is buying pressure in the paper market then prices rise.

Millions of ounces are being traded at COMEX, tens of millions traded at LBMA on a daily basis. This is all predicated on a fractional reserve system in gold bullion. If banking practice is our guide in this matter we can believe that there is a 5 or 10 to 1 ratio between paper commitments and actual physical reserves.

So long as this system works then it works, just like a bank which works because its customers do not ask for cash. The moment there is a 'run' on the paper gold market, then you will see a turn. Each ounce removed by a long holding a certificate endangers 5 or 10 ounces of paper positions.

Remember the recent LONDON TIMES article which discussed the possibility that the Bank of England may not have its gold loans repayed with gold? Est 57 tonnes ball park ( no official word on the real amount ) . Why might someone publish something which seems so remote a possibility, so un-useful a piece of information, so speculative a notion?

There is no FDIC for bullion banks. There are not that many of them. The risk here is quite concentrated. These people have painted themselves into a corner. Unless they can 'recapitalize' their paper positions by slowly weaning people out of the paper market ( thus destroying the excess paper certificates ) , or by buying physical gold reserves then the game will finish badly. Its a very delicate balance they are maintaining at the moment.

What they can't afford is for increasing investment demand to concentrate on acquition of physical bullion since this would evaporate the thin market for the physical. The problem is that price is rising. This will attract attention; and as someone posted earlier today will attract purely momentum players with very big pockets ( in relationship to the total gold market ( paper and physical ) ) .

One of these days .. WOW!!!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:45 - ID#20167)
Ambrose Evans-pritchard, a former wash. correspondent for the London
Daily Telegraph, upon his recall to London, gives a penatrating and
stinging analysis of the state of american politics in his article "Good
Bye, Good Riddance"

Pritchard is the author of "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" in which he
documents and reveals the crimes that have made his presidency "the most
corrupt in history"

In part 2 of his expose he declares "Clinton represents the ultimate
deterioration of standards and integrity" furthermore he states "the kind
of corruption we're dealing with here is just flat out venality..without
any kind of moral justification whatever and it has crept into every area
of public life"

As one who has over the years followed the accounts of the surreal goings
on in our government, I am sickened at the revolting state of complacency
of our people, especially the democratic party pundits and elected
officals who have so vociferously defended Mr. Clintons behavior.

This article is a must read for all kitcoites who want to understand why
they must convert to real money and take other import measures to
protect their families now.

My thanks to The Hermit who steered me to this site on the mention of
another subject.

scroll down to part 1, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on organized crime.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:45 - ID#432298)
Gold's sudden drop in price.......
Can anyone comment on the sudden drop in gold price? Perhaps why the sudden reversal?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:45 - ID#288369)
( SLAP! ) I needed that....thank you. What me worry?

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:46 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1....Better make that... NamasTE(D) Fair winds, Ted!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:46 - ID#213265)
@the scene
XAU; First it failed in breaching yesterdays high. Not good in and of itself. Then it broke below the all important 90, which was yesterdays intra-day low and the point from which it broke down Friday. And just like Friday, it didn't seem to like that. Looks like we now see what it does with 86.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:47 - ID#287193)
John Disney....correction .......RANDGOLD

News-South Africa's Randgold....

( I only check in a few minutes at a time. This may be old news to most of you ) .


(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:50 - ID#390415)
Which way is up...
It was posted here earlier today that an inflationary spiral is no friend to goldbugs, and that opinion was seconded.

Today's action once again indicates that gold prices correlate with expectations of inflation, rebutting to some extent that earlier assertion.

Some of us are convinced that:

( 1 ) Y2K is for real.
( 2 ) It will cause economic dislocation, and SOL ( sooner or later ) inflation, possibly hyperinflation.
( 3 ) This scenario will be bad for everyone, but not as bad for those holding solid golf stocks. Uh, rather, make that *gold* stocks.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:51 - ID#26793)
U.S. has "grave concern" over Japanese trade surplus.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:51 - ID#20167)
The drop in the price of gold during the current Clinton news conference
is manipulation pure and simple.

The purpose being to condition your mind to the belief that gold investors will sell their gold upon news of corruption in govt.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:52 - ID#348286)
Dow soaring Gold plunging! Is this a rewind of 1997? Whats the dilleo ?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 14:58 - ID#26793)
China calls for stability after pyramid scheme riot.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:07 - ID#287193)
@ RANGY=Randgold EX ADR ..John Disney...
on Nasdaq it is down- of course, but I could not find the S.A.News about

'RANGY' in Yahoo's news.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:11 - ID#348286)
The Europeans are well known for their weak decision making ( look at the Bosnia fiasco - they were only saved by the good old US of A ) , and
constant bickering ( not unlike some posters here at good old Kitco ) .
Well I guess the Gold market is saying they will fail to agree on a set ECB Gold reserve %age, and possibly leave the issue open.
This would not surprise me at all, and will most certainy plunge the whole industry into a new depression.
Lets hope they have some balls and finally come out with a clear statement, but I will not bet my house on it........
The US Buck will crush the Euro if they fail.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:13 - ID#153102)
@Albereich & USG War on Gold
In the context of US Constitutional law it is quite accurate to say there is an ongoing USG War on Gold as there is an ongoing USG War on Drugs, Cancer, Poverty, etc. Congress has a power to pursue a war policy by legislation without a declaration of war per the Supreme Court dicta in ex parte Milligan. But to say there is a CB war on gold makes no sense to me whatsoever. The most you can say is that gold is viewed as an "adversarial asset" in F*'s words by some bankers.

If there are friends of gold anywhere in official or semi-official positions, they are in the CB's. And they are friends of necessity, not of sound principle or affection. The banker-bureaucrats just can't figure out how to get along without gold and manage transaction and settlement risk between sovereign nations.

I think we are way behind on understanding events since 1971. I think the critical moment for gold occurred several years ago before the recent drop in price. I think it occurred when central bankers realized IMF and World Bank would eventually bankrupt the whole system and that only gold could prevent it. They then tried to subsidize gold mining artificially to increase supply. The market approach to increase supply is an increase in price. But letting POG rise was in conflict with the US$ as reserve currency and with management of inflation perceptions. So they tried industry subsidy instead. The industry subsidy via gold leasing strategy was co-opted by F*'s Young Tigers and Wall Streeter's who know the score on gold and the USG and backfired and instead of increasing supply depressed price and supply.

BIS opens an office in Hong Kong. China is clearly in the gold camp. As Donald points out, and I asked a while back myself, what do communists need gold for ? There is a tension between culture and ideology that is irreconcilible unless ideology gives ground. We know the Arab view on gold; we can see the Chinese have joined BIS and purchased gold and increased gold production. This, too, is by necessity. The Chinese people don't trust paper. Neither do the French.

My view is that the financial system has gone to the brink and the Asian crisis was the result. Now, BIS is urgently trying to focus the system on gold before it does collapse. If the Euro flops, the reserve currency will be plain gold. USG sponsored global socialist banking with fiat paper is what has failed. Gold is coming back. Either at the top first and spreading into national money country by country or after catastrophe, from the bottom to the top all over the place.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:14 - ID#434158)
Servhard re Rangold
Thanks very much for the heads-up! Three minutes at the computer and I'm out, along with the wife and kids! Bailing out may be premature, but I think I can find less risky prospect, like the metal itself! Thanks again.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:20 - ID#20135)

Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 14:41
Allen ( USA ) ( Market ) ID#246224:

Very nice description of the happenings Allen.

I agree, many comex players want to shake people out of taking delivery of those gold contracts. It will be interesting to see if they were successful. IF not we should see a spike back up as a scamble insues to provide all the gold required. As they say, we are living in interesting times.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:22 - ID#348286)
@HeHeHeHe ---- Here is MY version of Clittons comments :-)
Thursday April 30, 2:48 pm Eastern Time

Clinton says hopes to avoid big Gold market swings

WASHINGTON, April 30 ( MoreGold ) - President Bill Clinton said on Thursday he was encouraged by the U.S. economy's underlying fundamentals and hoped that big Gold market swings could be avoided.

Responding to a question about the Gold market at a news conference, Clinton also said he felt Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, the key figure in setting U.S. monetary policy, had done ``quite a fine job'' over the past five years manipulating Gold.

Clinton was careful to avoid predicting whether the Gold market might rise or fall. He suggested the market's recent strength may have been spurred by the U.S. economy's strong productivity, robust growth and low interest rates as well as the Asian economic crisis, he said which may have pushed some investment capital into the Gold markets.

``Mr. Greenspan, I think, has done quite a fine job over the last five years in managing his part of our economy,'' he added, noting that there had been talk that the market was heading toward a speculative bubble that might ultimately burst.

``I do understand the bubble theory. I think the best way to avoid having a big bubble that someday pops is to make sure that we have open information about where we are right now and the progress of the Gold market is pretty well tied to the real progress of the economy,'' he said.

``I'm encouraged by the underlying Gold fundamentals, and what I hope will happen is that we can avoid any kind of big swings in the market one way or another by just steady, slow -- or maybe not so slow -- but certainly steady Gold growth,'' he said.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:24 - ID#25171)
The evidence that I can offer are based on circumstances. To get hardfacts ( or written proof ) you would need either to abduct a BIS official

and question him or be a small mouse in the BIS attic eaves-dropping on their private meetings.

The BIS and the IMF are at loggerheads. Although the IMF gets publicity in all media these days and most children in KOREA know about it, the BIS is still rather low key.The BIS intervened last year to advise against IMF gold sales and this intervention exacerbated CAMDESSUS hate toward his "friends ".

The IMF is the american response to the BIS which was created in the 30s to monitor GERMAN WWI reparation payments.The US have been regurlarly promoting the IMF to counterbalance the doomsayers from the BIS who have made more and more comments recently about the debt spiral and the debasing of money in the world.

In short the IMF represents the collective ( and collectivist ) effort to spread wealth by shipping taxpayers hard earned money to mostly monopoly gamblers , when the BIS tries to keep the concept of money afloat.

Until the US were forced to cancel the external convertibility of the dollar , the BIS hoped that the dollar could become the base for a world monetary system. However the VIET-NAM war ruined this dream and the world was such a mess untill the early 80s that no attempt was made at finding a solution.The BIS however promoted the creation of the european monetary system in the mid 70s with the idea of coming to the point where we are now ( the EURO ) .The BIS is actively supporting GOLD backing for the EURO and the more the better.

In the meantime , as the US dollar will eventually collapse, it would be nice if the Asian countries could come to something a little bit like the EURO but with a central role for GOLD.

European banks have enough GOLD to cover their currency in the likely event that a GOLD standard would have to be reintroduced. On the other hand ASIAN countries, besides TAIWAN, need to buy a lot of GOLD and this is the reason why the BIS brokered the sale of some BELGIUM GOLD to JAPAN and CHINA.It is not clear yet on which side of EURASIA RUSSIA will be. To make GOLD affordable to ASIA the BIS promoted very low interest rates in JAPAN which had the effect of 1 ) promoting growth in this country 2 ) flood the world with liquidity 3 ) make the cost of carry for JAPANESE very low as GOLD repo is close to YEN rates.

As the world is being flod with liquidity , and financial assets inflate , speculators look for ways to generate more cash to leverage their participation in the bubble and sell GOLD and YEN short to buy other dollar denominated assets.The squeeze is in place . The dollar world is held by the balls as if GOLDor the YEN rise or US assets fall they will have to unwind their position. This will be the day when GOLD will go up 10000 $ , the YEN will appreciate 50% , the S&P will go down 50 % and the dollar will collapse to eventually 0.

HASHIMO hinted at this last year in JUNE when he said that if the US was not cooperative , the JAPANESE might sell their bonds holding to buy GOLD. HASHIMOTO was finance minister.He is well connected with the BIS.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:25 - ID#267344)
mozel - your 00:47
DON'T YOU DARE sentence me to anything or tell me what I sould do with MY gold. Where do you get off sentencing anybody? I hope that it is I who am wrong and misinterpreted some type of humor in that post. I listen to everything you post. You are among many on this forum from whome I have learned a great deal. I agree that there is much that you have written that should be archived. But perhaps the suggestion of that last night went straight to your head. I sincerely hope it was temporary, because that post was well beyond any hint of civility. Private ownership is better than public ownership - you have made your point. But who is going to sell the wilderness to a private citizen? Who has that right? Some "entity" must "own" it or "claim" it before it can be sold to any private citizen. Who has that right? The most powerful entity - that's who. Have we still not taken enough? Must we "take, own, claim" every last inch. Oh, maybe we'll forget about Antartica and a few small deserts for the time being! I know! Let's pave the entire planet. We can "suburbanise", sectionise, and gate off every land mass in the world. Be careful of those darn volcanic erruptions though! Your "ownership mentallity" goes too far. Yes, some places must be publically preserved, we mustn't allow ourselves to develope the entire planet. If it works, DO NOT fix it. That can be applied to everything - including nature. What I ask you is to please consider a bigger picture. "Ownership" and "order" are concepts that must be balanced with everything else in human society, including chaos. It's not all about "me" and "mine," or even "us" or "ours." It is ALSO about compassion and respect for life and freedom for all things. Our current problem is that we are losing control and giving it to Special Interests. That means death for us and the environment; only, we depend on that environment to learn many important things. For some the environvment gives them peace, and they might be very hostile if it suddennly vanishes or is taken away. WE are part of the environment, we come FROM it. Government must only serve the Common Interest - that is the only reason why it should exist in the first place. If you want to continue this conversation, let's keep it at a pseudo-intellectual level and away from the "holier than thou."

- c

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:26 - ID#347235)
@ Reify
Good for you taking on BBC! You think they are bad Try CNN ( Communist News Network, or NBC ( News by Commies ) or any of the other left wing organizations that think the schlickmeister is good for us.
By the way why do you think the gole bidness is down to day. Sorry my Texas accent broke through for a moment against my best efforts to control it.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:28 - ID#330175)
Thoughts........if possible,EH
BillD: Didn't mean ta ignore ya this mornin---by all means come up and 'burn one'...Mozel: Re-that man-island stuff: Ya wanna bet!...EB ( 10:26 ) HUH...Prometheus--hey we got phone lines out on 'the island' ( that ain't the problemO bro ) but the computer-internet don't mix well with sawdust & vile language,eh...Lakefoil ( 10:59 ) Sure ya got the right person,huh?...Auric:Just back from Sydney ( Nova Scotia,damn it ) with a armful of dem beautiful blue,red and GOLD colered Foster's cans of brewski or as THEY say in Quebec---Biere...JTF:By Thanksgiving-time you can look forward to more of my mindLESS drivel...To all: How could GOLD do this to moi on my last day,huh???

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:28 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Damn Mozel but you're good! From that perception I would guess that the USG will be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and the interim will not be pleasant as the debt-based system unwinds.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:28 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 14:51
AYORK ( Gazebo ) ID#20167:
The drop in the price of gold during the current Clinton news conference
is manipulation pure and simple.


You bet, AYORK.

But they have been playing the so long that they can't the diffence. Fortunately, more and more ordinary folks can.

The game isn't fair and the bad guys win longer than they should, but they ALWAYS get lost in their own lies and lose their way.

Time is now on GOLD's side. honest pay for honest work. honest trade between honest people. Gold is becoming more important day by day.


got to run, more tasks to complete.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:31 - ID#208393)
Deal of a lifetime!
pssst...Goldbugs, have I got a deal for you. It's a new Internet stock that went from .95 to 1.50 to 2.20 in just two days. Just think of the number of shares you could buy with your Gold coins. Ok, so the company never made a profit yet and is creating shares by the zillions. You could quadruple your stash in a week and just think of the Mounties you could buy then. Want to know the name of the company? Nah, it doesn't matter. There are hundreds of them out there. Just pick any one and start collecting those juicy double digit returns.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:32 - ID#410198)
Clone ,where pray tell is this promised land of property ownership and a free people..?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:34 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the complimentary word. You summary speaks my conclusions better than I could have done myself.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:35 - ID#20135)
Sorry, one more for Arden...
Last night Arden posed a good question:

"Has anyone asked what they quality of the remaining eligible stocks are? I mean, if someone had delivered a nice JM bar of 100 oz into comex and someone else had deposited a crude looking bar with funny shaped markings on it weighing almost 99 ozs, which bar would be the first one delivered to customers? Just asking, you know."

Could any and all lurkers etc. be so kind as to step forward and let us know the specifics of your recent experineces in taking delivery of comex gold contracts, quality of bars delivered etc.

We learn a GREAT DEAL from this information. It is important, please share.

Thanks in advance.

I'm gone.

Cage Rattler
(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:35 - ID#33182)

Extract from post on follows:

The net asset value for Randgold is currently R10 and with the current share price at R7.40 this represents a 26% discount to NAV.

It has substantial loans such as R241.7m in convertible bonds, the Syama loan of R17m the RRL loan of R32m etc.

Also, during the last 6 months, the holdings in Harmony have been reduced significantly.

Further by far the largest contributor to the NAV is Randgold Resources which is listed in London and accounts for 53% of the NAV.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:36 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...(early post)
Once again, I am joining my wife for a house hunt, then will be attending a show tonight. So, I do not foresee posting any report until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

So, once again, I will go out on the limb and extrapolate from today's action. I acknowledge that I may prove to be incorrect, as this is merely an extrapolation. So, take it for what it's worth.

As it turns out, my Kitco Barometer from yesterday proved to be the most accurate forecaster of today's action. I have found in the past that Kitco mood level is often a terrific short term indicator and, as you may recall, the Barometer was VERY BEARISH ( Cavender, Chasabar...maybe you might want to borrow my little chart someday? ) , even in the face of yesterday's VERY BULLISH fundamentals. Anyway, that is why I placed a CAUTION on my final assessment of the market.

Gold and XAU trading levels are relatively moderate. Once again, junior golds are showing almost non-existent volume.

According to broker sources, the main fundamental negatives running around the gold market today concern various traders leaking putative "inside info" as to the exact level of gold reserves to be held against the upcoming EURO ( Of course, one must ask how American traders access such confidential information when the question of who exactly will run the ECM bank is still in hot discussion? ) . Anyway, the figures ( 15% and less ) are described by inside info experts as very bearish for gold.
No surprise there as, no matter what the announced figure will be, Wall Street and gold shorts will spin the announcement in its most negative light. Furthermore, the other putative fact making its way round the pits is that Duisenberg, the Dutchman, will be named as the ECI bank head. Again, traders are declaring this to be very bearish as Duisenberg is decried as "anti-gold" ( my own assessment: he is neither pro nor anti...I do not believe gold is a paramount concern for him amongst the spate of other, more urgent ECI issues under discussion. However, even if he were anti and even if he turns out to be the Bank's selected head, he will have to concede to Germany, France, and Italy's indicated desire to maintain a very nice slice of gold reserves against the EURO ) . Finally, of course, the most significant fundamental negative is both the stock market and bonds soaring upward on the basis of the employment wage cost index ( forget whether or not this index is "cooked" or not...isn't it weird how this index, falling a mere .2% below expectations, can result in the amazing resurgence of vertical mania? Why is it that, inversely, when certain Wall Street stocks fall a mere 2 cents below expectations, they never seem to trash analogously but always race right back up after, at worst, a nominal correction? )

Once again, gold's performance today is an encouraging sign, reconfirming gold's negative beta ( contrarian movement ) to general industrial equities and bonds.

With respect to Wall Street, I suspect the overexuberance of this morning will dissipate by the close of market. Since liquidity inflows are the prime determinants of markets values and these inflows are experiencing difficulties in maintaining their hefty levels ( as we reach the fifth month of the year ) , then I would expect index funds to pull fund out at the end of the day.

PM Relativity chance to look at those results today.

Kitco Barometer....I have not had a chance to look at Kitco posts in any detail although, upon quick perusal, the ostensible goldbug mood today seems much more subdued and nervous ( excepting the usual emotionalism of certain familiar gold antagonists ) . This is a good sign. In one day's action, the emotional overexuberance and heated emotionalism of goldbugs has completely dissipated.

I maintain an EXTREMELY BULLISH position on gold and continue to look forward to the exciting events of the next several days.



P.S. Oh, by the way, have you heard this little chant before? Just run it around your mind as imminent EURO gold reserve percentages are unveiled. ( You might find it to be very soothing...I know I do! ) :


(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:44 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Mozel -- Your posting are always most thought provoking, and in this later posting, extremely so. It puts together so much of what seems to be going on. MANY thanks!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:44 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Yes, a glaring error............Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:44 - ID#345176)
It looks like a meteorite hit the XAU, now down 3%

the SAs are bleeding with the NAs. What a disaster!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:55 - ID#269409)
@ Allen / Ted
Ted don't go..... Allen, thanks for askin, subfloor being torn up this week, we're living out of a motel ( echhh )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:57 - ID#341189)
Is the XAU overpriced?
This chart represents a rank ordering of the XAU for the last 739 weeks ( the entire history of the XAU ) with the associated gold and XAU/gold ratios for each rank.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 15:58 - ID#24135)
Rangold "earnings"
To nervous rangold people..
Press report on "earnings" is strange
to me .. Crown Consolidated is a very
new company having startup problems.
It is not a MINE. it is a gold slimes
processing plant. It represents about
6 % of rangold's NAV. It closed close
to its recent high this week.
Rangold Resources is a much more serious
contributer at over 50% of NAV. It was
listed in London - Not rsa - within the
past year .. their only possible
source of earnings is a new mine in
Mali that has only just come onstream
recently. It is mainly an exploration
company. Kebble wants to buy Crown
from rangold, perhaps the story is
his own plant to try to make it look
like he's doing everybody a favour.
Reporting operating earnings on a
holding company is a bit strage to me.
Rangold own harmony shares too.. did they
report those earnings??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:01 - ID#269409)
@ Myrmidon....speakin o' meteorites
Comm sattellites may be in trouble come November. There is a meteorite shower due, that will be the most severe in 33 years. Several thousand meteorites per hour. "Pleiades" I think it's called.

We may have several satellites damaged or even knocked out of comission entirely. Just thought the Gloom & Doomer, Y2K folks here oughta know about it!

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:02 - ID#212323)
An analogy to clear away the mist that remains
COMEX continues to receive unwarranted attention as to its role in the gold market. To see the gold market clearly one must ignore COMEX, or at least understand COMEX in the proper context. I offer this parallel using American Football ( NFL ) , a concept well understood by many.

Allow an actual football game in a stadium attended by fans to represent the physical gold market. Two teams show up on ONE field to play ONE game, and a small sample of the Earth's population pays a modest ticket price to BE THERE watching the action-- the PHYSICAL market.

COMEX is represented by Las Vegas and the gambling that takes place on the outcome of that ONE game. The very fact that millions of people gamble on the outcome does not necessitate that those two teams must play more than ONE game that day. Nor does this gambling/speculating activity affect the attendence and outcome of the game. Additionally, please recall that VERY FEW football games are actually played and attended IN Vegas. ( Just like COMEX...very little activity in the physical gold market; people are just betting/speculating/hedging on the outcome ( POG movement ) )

To extend the analogy a bit further, I might suggest that the LBMA and perhaps the BIS are represented by the actual football teams, players and coaches. The teams do not "make the market", they are simply a business enterprise that continues from week to week, year to year. The existence of the teams does not terminate if they lose or if attendence is down at the games. Likewise, LBMA and BIS are in the business of using gold as money. This does not "make the market", and their gold-as-money transactions do not terminate if the price of gold has a downtrend.

I repeat, almost NOBODY *buys* their gold at COMEX. COMEX is simply the bookie that records the bets/hedges of the speculators/producers & users.
The amount of betting in Vegas does not affect the attendence at the stadium.

People who want gold, buy gold. People who want to see a football game, they go to a game...they do not go to Vegas. Think of it this way...what would happen to football attendence if gambling was outlawed? Similarly, what would happen to the PHYSICAL gold market if trading commodities futures or options was outlawed? My guess is that miners would continue to ship their product to the refineries, and the users would continue to buy from the refineries. COMEX simply allows for a contractural mechanism to exist that pays cash to a price-hedger offsetting an adverse movement in POG.

The small gold that COMEX does have is like a gift shop. Whether or not people choose to take home a souvenir does not affect their ability to coordinate paper contracts between various "gamblers".

The physical market is "made" by the general interest of the population to attend a football game, or to shed the analogy, it is made by mankind's general interest to use and own gold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:03 - ID#252127)
Mozel; Better that the BIS open an office in Bombay,

or New Dehli; then they would be speaking softly and carrying a big stick.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:04 - ID#269409)
@ JTF / all.... call of the day (yesterday)
I have renewed respect for JTF. Here's a hardcore GoldBug who not only is open minded enough to understand the broader markets, and be open to their potential for gains, but was willing to put his money where his mouth is.... wish I'd have had your foresite yesterday...though I don't dabble in options, I coulda moved a big chunk of 401 K money into the market... ( still shivering on the sidelines... )

Date: Wed Apr 29 1998 18:36
JTF ( I am bullish on the markets also ) ID#57232:
LGB: We agree on this matter. I saw the strength of the computer stocks rallying just before 'ping II'. To my
amazement flagship stocks such as HP, Intel and IBM were relatively unaffected. That is not a symptom of a
market demise. As I have posted, my opinion is that we will have a bullish period -- and I let the gurus such as
APH and Oldman,etc tell us how long. This is also bullish for the gold stocks.

I bought some sp-500 calls this AM. I'll freely admit I am nowhere near the expertise of APH or Oldman,

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:05 - ID#330175)
I'm already gone~~~~~

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:08 - ID#330175)
so what,you made ANOTHER lucky-call...Damon will destroy yer boys t'nite!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:08 - ID#252150)
Farfel@Great call on the equity mkts last week. Right up there in the same league as Peutz.
You should stick to calling the AU mkt. At least you have an inkling about what's going on there. There are 16 inklings in a clue.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:09 - ID#408285)
Have read the analyses and comments concerning RANGY here and on golden eagleagle over last several weeks. Did not expect todays announcements. Would appreciate learning why I was so wrong or why exuberances were so wrong.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:10 - ID#257148)
I used to think a Morgan was just a brilliant English Sports car----
Your 14:06 ! automatic content analysis at kitco. Haha, then again, if kitco can do it with golden eagle and gold beagles, perhaps Bart can do something to weed out the BS.

Although I asked you to skip over this Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 20:11
noone has answered my questions, I wonder if I could trouble you to furnish to answers, if you have them:

I have been buying well-circulated Morgan and Peace dollars, with I guess
no numismatic value. My friend the jeweller has been tumbling them so
they shine, shine, shine.
Several are dated in the 1880's, when a buck would get you a buck, yes?
Am I correct in thinking they are likely made of silver from The
Comstock Load?

Is there an easy way to tell where they were minted?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:10 - ID#153102)
I was hoping my phrasing would help you see that your conclusions are sentencing you to that fate.

Drop over to the American Enterprise Institute web site for the private ownership approach to environmental protection. Everything is going to be owned by somebody or some entity. Government is a lousy caretaker. If you did not read about the Great Gold Scam posted by Robnoel, you should. Regulation is a lousy caretaker. Loving care is from individual human beings. People take care of what they own. Would you want to live in a government building ?

Mankind has been changing the environemtnt forever and must change it to live. Nature is just not that friendly to human flesh and blood. There are too many hungry, ill clothed, ill housed people to institutionalize inefficiency in environmental agenicies. Believe it or not, raising the standard of living of people is not that easy. I have to say my priorities are People First. Freedom First. Property First. Politically Managed landscapes Last.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:13 - ID#224151)
Looks as though the Fed is going to have to Act not Threat if they hope to cool the Dow with an interest rate boost.Disappointing day for Gold but XAU still maintaining nice base INMO.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:13 - ID#217268)
You are referring to the Leonids Meteor Showers from the tail of the comet Tempel-Tuttle, expected during November 1998, particularly November 17, 1998. There were few satellites in orbit in the 1960's when the Leonid Meteor Showeres last passed this way. The 1998 Almanac with the red cover does a good job of explaining this along with other expected showers. Naturally, no potential liabilities are expressed or implied.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:14 - ID#224151)
Looks as though the Fed is going to have to Act not Threat if they hope to cool the Dow with an interest rate boost.Disappointing day for Gold but XAU still maintaining nice base IMHO.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:14 - ID#408147)
...comment re:cease to exist by the end of the year was also confusing in the article on randgold -- if you put the facts on losing money with cease to exist, it is a bad initial image. However, if the report is simply stating earnings that are not out of line with current conditions in the market and that the cease to exist is another way of stating that randgold may splinter off into one or more companies, then the image is not nearly so dark... your view on this?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:15 - ID#252150)
Ted@I wish you & your's all the best in your new home. Check in on us if you get a chance & let us
know how you are getting along.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:17 - ID#345176)
HECLA - HL - Made money this quarter

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:18 - ID#269409)
Silver vs. Gold....
Silver showing amazing resilience in the face of Gold's precipitous drop. Gold shares takin a pounding.... Hmmmm, what happened to "XAU is leading physical higher?" and... "This new Gold market is not as before?"......Ahhh, it's Thursday not Tuesday. What a difference a day makes......

Soon it will be time for me to restock my "Saint Gaudens".... many customers bought up a large part of the inventory.

Not to worry GoldBugs, the shiny yellow will definitely end the year higher than it began...which is more than we can say for 97 eh? However, first comes another downturn, and maybe even a bloodbath after EU meetings taking place. We'll see......

If you all want to drive Gold much higher, then you must post MANY bearish disappointed comments re Gold so that Farfel's "Kitco index" will turn bullish and Gold can be talked back up be sheer force of will, yes?

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:19 - ID#24135)
Rangold NAV
for cage rattler
What is the date of the prices used
in the NAV calculation. ??
Reason I ask is I talked to
rangold man this week and he could
not release an NAV because it was to
be published this coming MONDAY in
business day ..
I assume the NAV would be after
loans etc. But the NAV of 10 sounds
like where it was at the end of 1997.
I had been told by a guy who tries
to follow it that it was close to
15. Resources has come up a bit from
end 1997. Crown is up maybe 50 %. Harmony
and options have trebled .. Dbn-deep
has doubled and the options have
maybe trebled. They also had some
dbn preferred stock which has done
I am completed uncertain in the
liablity department

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:20 - ID#410215)
..... Stuff .....

Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 14:18

Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:

It would appear that we may finally see the 306 June gold yet by next Tuesday. Or not.

Eldo -

I agree with you entirely. This is not sarcasm. Yours is the wisest post today.

Regarding loyalty to one's employer: I am fortunate, it is a two way street.


In all forms of human endeavor, skills vary.

Can't recommend mining stocks, I am truly not qualified to do so. JD and oris and others here know far more than I.

Met a cutie or two, no marriage in sight.

Will get back to you on the physics stuff.

Rob -

don't know about WSJ silver, never looked. I have five computer screens on my desk at the office. All info is live and real time. If the WSJ prints it, most market insiders knew it a week ago. What do they quote?

DA -

I like your stuff. Well reasoned and well viewed.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:24 - ID#288156)
Return of the Golden Yen...
The mandate given was: is there a fork in the road? is there an intersection? if so, is there safe passage through the intersection? give us a projection....

I have shared with you, some days past, some part of my personal credo. I felt this appropriate not because there was any reason you should be interested
{:- ) ) , but because the objectivity one must bring to bear may place before one evaluations that conflict with personal appreciations. So, objective analysis lead to the following probabilities, OK? {:- )

1 ) When viewed in its global money guise, it is apparent why fiat political monetary power eschew gold, for gold functions as a governor on the fiat/debt monetary engine; gold fiat currency is an economic oxymoron.

The truth of this statement is evident when one visits gold standards through time to learn what brought them down. From the Roman Empire, the Latin Monetary Union, to Nixons United States, it was, has been and is, the imperative of deficit spending-- in most historical instances, to prosecute whatever war was at hand.

In our time, to prosecute a global war is tantamount to destroying the globe. The rules of political aggrandizement have changed. To contain the political thieves, that part of the world content to use Honest Money and guile, will use more subtle tools to power. Gold is such a tool.

The paradoxical nature of this Power Paradigm pleases those by whom it was crafted; it is a Cosmic Joke. And he who laughs last, laughs best.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:25 - ID#410215)
..... Liberty Boy .....


Who would have thought, based on our stormy beginning, that we would find a certain kinship? Is there hope for others? Regarding posts filled with air, I cannot seem to single space unless I type an entire sentence that wraps to the next line. The Kitco of old had not this quirk. I type all posts in MS word and then paste it on the posting page. The format looks good, the lines are OK, but the final post contains a lot of air. Many here will agree with that last sentence, believing that I am all hot air. Tis not the case, I am but three quarters air, one quarter kinda tepid luke warm ( was Luke really all that warm? ) wet and humid mass of low lying swamp gas. It is the only theory I have as to the reaction to some of my posts.

I like the phone tape story. This type of transaction would appear to be protective of both sides, yes?

As for giving them hell, I wish to give nobody grief of any kind. I hate the negative attacks. I used this method repeatedly for a 24 hour period in an effort to make a point. Seems as if some communication happened and I have no interest in getting in the last word or furthering the diatribe in any form. But remember, before I was a professional trader, I was a professional interrogator. The training is rigorous and the methods of "breaking" a prisoner ( not literally, but psychologically ) are devastatingly effective. We were taught to identify weaknesses and exploit these weakness to the fullest extent. Pushing buttons is what it was all about. Anger has nothing to do with it. The fierce face may be worn like a mask, and discarded as easily. I do not enjoy the fights and, though I do tend to prosecute them with barely controlled glee. Barring outright attacks, I am usually one to respond in a conversational or humorous manner as is evidenced by the many months-o-posts.

I have seized my share of bandwidth for this week and will put no more demands on it.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:26 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.58

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:27 - ID#246224)
Can ya give us a bit of news on how your honey is doing before you sign off altogether? TIA

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:27 - ID#57232)
Interesting State-of-the-Art Stuff about Inertia -- revolutionary.
All: I know that some of this is now in mainstream physics journals, so it is worth a read. If research in this area pans out, it will explain inertia ( resistance to acceleration ) as being the interaction of the mass in question with the rest of the Universe, via the zero point energy field. Why is this so exciting? It may lead to an interstellar drive, and the possibility of tapping another source of energy -- the so-called 'free energy' or ZPE.

I have more recent stuff ( 1997 ) in Physical Review, Physics Letters, etc. Will post interesting tidbits when I have read it. The Aether may be reborn as the ZPE field. The reason Michelson failed to find it is that it seems the Aether gets dragged along with matter. I suspect that what we fell as resistance to acceleration is the so-called 'Aether drag' ( ZPE ) trying to keep up. Sometimes the most obvious things can be overlooked, even with the intense scrutiny given to finding the Aether at the turn of the Century. This is the beginning of a technology revolution that will rival the information revolution and the invention of the computer. Lets hope we humans put our financial problems in order soon, so that we can focus on our destiny in the stars.

Read and enjoy!

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:27 - ID#212323)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD yesterday at 23:35
Perfect! Best anecdotal evidence that gold is undervalued in $$'s --NO WAY would you pay nine ounces for a driveway! I agree. It is much more seemly to part with 2,700 dollars. Given a choice, an knowledgeable person will always choose to pay with a weaker currency. Keep the gold!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:29 - ID#368244)
300 plus millon rand loss in one Quarter, versus 17000 rand profit last quater. Say bye bye 8 grand in one day I'm gone.

Lord Disney, you can have my 62000 shares, put em in your pocket.

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:29 - ID#212323)
Donald...your Apr 29th 19:43 is required reading for everyone.
Brilliant, Donald! Your narrative is a service to us all.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:30 - ID#410215)
..... Thanks .....

All -

It did not occur to me that asking to have the particularly offensive post removed would also cause the reason for my heated response to disappear. All that is left is my own posts, seemingly addressing, what? I must consider this in the future.

Bart -

Thank you for removing the post. It was the right thing to do. I sometimes wonder how you put up with any of us.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:30 - ID#20748)
if you are lurking, would appreciate your comment on today's action.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:31 - ID#288156)
Return of the Golden Yen
( 2 ) In speaking of China under Emperor Tang, one commentator remarked, When King Alfred was burning his cakes in a mud hut, Chinas Tang dynasty was at his cultural height. One need only view the tomb murals from this period to realize some small portion of the cultural gulf that exists between the West and China. On the wall behind the working desk of the Tang Emperor were emblazoned, in gold, the words: Balanced; Upright; Benevolent; Harmonious. Nothing--NOTHING--that has happened to or in China since that time, has weakened their cultural yearning for Harmony. Stability is a prima goal because it is a prelude to harmony.

This places the Chinese mind-set on a very different axis from the West. Golds discipline, an anathema to the west, becomes a reigning virtue to the Chinese;gold demands measured growth; gold encourages balance; gold sponsors stability; gold brings power.

It is interesting that one of Chinas first international commerce efforts was the issuance of a gold coin, the much admired Panda. In retrospect, it is possible to track their carefully crafted program; that their timetable was pushed forward by the excesses of the West is something with which the West will now be compelled to deal.
BBL [mtg-groan]

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:32 - ID#153102)
BIS in Bombay has a ring to it. Actually, an office anywhere is quite surprising. I wonder if it was a concession to Chinese communications and data security concerns.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:33 - ID#24135)
rangold future
for RayZer
My view on Rangold is I think it
will break up ... I believe that the
NAV of 10 that was reported may be
Thus it is worth more broken up
that in one piece .. a "value trap".
It is just a pile of stock ..
maybe a quarter DD harmony and options
on same, some unlisted stuff which
sounds good, and half Rangold resources
which holds mining rights all over
Mali Tanzania and other places in
Africa plus one mine that just began
I like the first quarter best and
I think I get that at a discount..
how big ill know for sure Monday.
I take my chances with the rest
BUT I consider exploration outside
RSA but with RSA know how
reasonable diversification.
I dont hold a lot of it .. my big
holding is harmony, then randfontein,
then the plats, then rangold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:36 - ID#269409)
@ Aurator...Silver cartwheels
Sure, no problem. you asked...

"have been buying well-circulated Morgan and Peace dollars, with I guess
no numismatic value. My friend the jeweller has been tumbling them so
they shine, shine, shine."

LGB comment. Never clean a coin with Numismatic value. It will almost always reduce if not eliminate the Numismatic premium of the coin. Better an ugly "original" than an altered "beauty" as far as collectors are concerned. All cleaning which removes "tarnish" also removes top surface
of the metal.

You said "Several are dated in the 1880's, when a buck would get you a buck, yes? Am I correct in thinking they are likely made of silver from The Comstock Load?"

LGB comment. The "Carson City" dollars were the ones minted primarily from the COmstock lode. They are also low mintage and highly in demand as Numismatic rarity's. They tend to be worth several multiples of the "common date" silver dollars from other mints.

You said "Is there an easy way to tell where they were minted?"

LGB comment. Yes, look on the back side under the Eagle for the mint mark. The mints letters were;

"O" New Orleans
"S" San Francisco
"CC" Carson City
plain Philadelphia ( no mint mark )

In general, well circulated, cleaned, etc. common date Morgans and Peace dollars are worth only a small premium over spot. they're in the $5.00 to $7.00 range currently depending on condition, date, and such.

However, Better dates, and very high grade Silver dollars ( in brilliant uncirculated, high mint state ) can easily go into the thousands, and even TENS of thousands in Numismatic value!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:36 - ID#213265)
@the scene
RJ -- The question then becomes what gold does afterward. Does it continue to make a plummeting gesture or does it bounce off the 306. In any case, I plan to make some more physical purchase at some point soon. This one not in the numismatics.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .287

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:40 - ID#201238)
eligible comex gold stocks down

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
78,323 0 0 0 0 78,323
36,947 0 0 0 0 36,947 Total
115,270 0 0 0 0 115,270
166,328 0 0 0 0 166,328
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682 Total
184,010 0 0 0 0 184,010
232,755 13,955 0 13,955 4,723 251,433
112,406 0 0 0 -4,723 107,683 Total
345,161 13,955 0 13,955 0 359,116
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
477,406 13,955 0 13,955 4,723 496,084
167,035 0 0 0 -4,723 162,312
644,441 13,955 0 13,955 0 658,396

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:40 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.18

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:41 - ID#330175)
Allen .......and DOW 10,000((doooooohhhh))
she's doin fine mate~~~~~

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:44 - ID#257148)

Thanks for info. I had previously read in one of your posts here not to clean any coins with numismatic value, so these ones are well-cirulated only. I'll not shine others of better quality, I agree, their patina is also attractive.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:51 - ID#288295)
SDRer, aurator @ BIS Gold

See my 09:52.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:51 - ID#26793)
Investment in Korea plummets.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 16:54 - ID#410198)
Bored with Gold how about a little conspiracy to spice up the day,who killed JFK

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:00 - ID#410215)
..... On the Grassy Knoll .....




(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:01 - ID#57232)
LGB: Most of my 403b money is shivering on the sidelines, too. I am not experienced enough ( or cocky enough ) to put any more money onto equities -- have most in qold stocks and some in computers ( Fidelity select ) . 50% in cash. I bought the sp500 June 1175 call options ( SPTFO ) yesterday because the total loss can be tolerated ( funny money only ) . I did learn one thing that is of value in trading options -- and that is if you are doing it right you should have only a few trades per year in the market or stock that you choose. You should focus on the potential really big turning points, and skip all others unless you are a professional. I also tend to stay in much too long -- I am better at jumping in than jumping out.

If you do start trading options, use only money you can afford to lose, and limit how much money per year you will throw away. I think it takes years of continuous effort before one can match the Oldman, APH or EB.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:03 - ID#258427)
Folks...and FWIW...I dropped Rangy like a hot
potatoe before the close...lost 1/16 ... and not complaining after what drooy has done ( for me ) ...

Now is iT SSC ( huh LGB?? ) NEXT, or more Drooy? or more "wait and see?"


ps..Chas...BCMD up 3/16 today...breathing air again!!

bd..Go SwanIsland....Go Gold

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:05 - ID#288156)
( 3 ) With the majestic irony in which history seems to specialize, two other blocks find themselves with similar goals: the nation of Islam despises the fiat/debt/fractional reserve banking system of the west, which it views as a kind of legal theft; and, Japan, after many years of accommodating its friends find being the worlds biggest creditor is akin to serfdom.

So, at this moment in time, for varied reasons, the bulk of the worlds population--who control the bulk of the worlds oil resources, a comfortable percentage of the worlds industrial production resources, and the second largest economy--find themselves with a common goal, a common tormentor and the means with which to accomplish the goal and humble the tormentor.

Honest money. Gold.
Details when I get back..

Silverbaron@BIS If they're not careful, you'll have them posting
here! Well done. {:- )
Outa here.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:05 - ID#20748)
Your 10:57. The Fed forfeited the interest rate option a long time ago. A rate hike at this time will bring an immediate, sustained collapse in the market, which is neither economically desirable nor politically acceptable. Besides, they have to worry about Asia and the coming competition from the Euro.

Which brings me to the fear in my mind, would the Fed resort to direct intervention to spook the gold market? Authorized or not they do they do intervene almost daily in the S&P 500 futures, so what's there to keep them from doing the same at Comex. If anyone has any doubts one look at the DJIA intraday chart today would reveal how well the market was orchestrated for the Clinton press conference. Yet, Bob Rubin never stops from asking for more transparency from the Japanese markets.

So, could the action in Comex today be ascribed to the Fed, or was it a free market event?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:07 - ID#23782)
John D.
Ali Bacher had put together the perfect cricket team for '98. The only
thing he was missing was a good fast bowler. He had scouted all the
and even the high schools, and he couldn't find a quickey that would
ensure a victory over Pakistan.

Then one night, watching CNN, he saw a war zone in Bosnia. In the
background, out of the corner of his eye, he spotted a young Bosnian
soldier with a truly incredible arm. He threw a hand grenade straight
into a 15th story window 200 yards away-ka-boom! He threw another hand
into a group of about 10 soldiers a good 110 yards away-ka-blooey! A
passes going 90 miles an hour-bulls-eye! Right into the barely open

"I've got to get this guy," Ali says to himself. "He has the perfect
So he brings him to South Africa and teaches him the great game of
Predictably, the young man tops all the test stats
for wickets taken, and SA goes on to win the test series.

The young Bosnian is lionized as the Great Hero of South African
Cricket, gets to meet Nelson Mandela and when Bacher asks him what he
wants, all the young man wants to do is to call his mother.

Mom," the young man says into the receiver, "I just won the test

for South Africa." "I don't want to talk to you," the old woman says.
"You deserted us. You're not my son."

"I don't think you understand, mother" the young man pleads. "I just
won the greatest sporting event in the world. I'm in the middle of
thousands of adoring fans."
No, let me tell you," the mother implores. "At this very moment, there

are gun shots all around us. The neighborhood is a pile of rubble.
Your two brothers were beaten within an inch of their lifes
last week, and this week your sister was raped in broad daylight...."

The old lady pauses, in tears. "...I'll never forgive you for moving us
to Johannesburg !"

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:15 - ID#288295)

Actually, I was giving considerable thought to picking up a load of RANGY after all you guys panic out of it.... ( ;^ ) ...maybe at a buck or so. That'll be at somethin like a 50 to 67% discount to NAV.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:15 - ID#410198)
RJ,by the way could I interest you in a flak jacket?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:21 - ID#434158)
Rangold and RSA stocks
From the url on Servhard's post:
"* * * Randgold's two major subsidiaries both reported heavy losses during the recent quarter. Chairman Roger Kebble said the company's corporate advisers were working on a plan to sort out the corporate structure which was expected to be ready by November.

On Mar 30 Kebble said Randgold is likely to cease to exist before the end of the year. Randgold, once a powerful South African mining house, has spun off its mines, such as Harmony and Durban Roodeport Deeps ( DRD ) , as independent entities over the last year.

Randgold retains minor interests in Durban Roodepoort Deep and Harmony, but sold its stakes in Stilfontein, Rand Leases Properties, CMC and RMP Properties during the year"

There has been a lot of discussion about relative valuation of RSA versus NA mining stocks. I own both, but as of 2:30 pm today own considerably LESS of the RSA variety. I'm afraid I have become accustomed to the accounting requirements of the SEC and the easy availability of periodic financial and operational updates which occur in the US marketplace. There may be equally simple ways of updating critical info on RSA stocks, perhaps I just have not found them yet. Any Suggestions? It does occur to me that one of the more knowledgeable groups of people in the world regarding gold stocks congregate in this forum: and the RANGY news seems to be a bit of a shock to most of us ( even if some of us didn't "own much of it." ) Unless I can develop more reliable sources of regularly updated info, I suspect my future investments in RSA issues will be severely limited.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:21 - ID#258427) RANGY...YEP
sounds like a good move...but that some 18% more on the downside before you get to a buck or so...sure would hate to ride it down some 18% ... but would maybe consider it then...if it gets that low!!

Meanwhile chas's stock...BCMD up 25% today...okkkkkkkk!

wonder why?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:24 - ID#342315)
JTF re P. Davies
Quite a piece. I think you could express it better. Did you ever get in touch with Phil Callahan? Since I have changed ISP and computers, I lost your email. I have a "bunch" that is best done off post. My new email is Give me a holler. Thanx Charlie

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:26 - ID#339274)
FWIW An opportunity to buy more.I like their Mali operation.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:31 - ID#408147)
FSAGX and SA Gold?
From Yahoo ( this would be bullish for rsa gold stocks ) :

Elsewhere in goldland, Fidelity has sent out a proxy seeking shareholder permission to change the charter of Fidelity Select
American Gold ( Nasdaq:FSAGX ) to allow for more diversification.

Currently, the fund must invest "at least 80% of its assets in North, Central and South American companies engaged in
gold-related activities, and in gold bullions or coins." If approved by investors, the words "North, Central and South American"
would be deleted, allowing the fund's manager to invest in more global stocks and the name will be changed to Select Gold

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:34 - ID#410215)
..... Physics Schmysics .....


I need to get away from this keyboard, but you MUST read, "The Big Bang Never Happened" ( No, this is not about how my date went ) by Eric J. Lerner, published by Vintage ISBN 0-679-74049-X.

Based on plasma research by Hannes Alfven, this book completely does away with gravity as the force shaping the large scale universe. Instead filaments of charged plasma are guided and separated by magnetic fields. Since magnetic fields and currents can concentrate matter and energy much faster and more effectively that can gravity, his argument is compelling as his theory nicely does away with all the "dark matter" postulated to comprise 99.99 percent of the observable universe.

Another exiting product of the theory is the ability to keep matter and anti matter apart by these same fields. This would explain why the universe is primarily made of matter. An anti-matter ( read a book once in which anti matter was called Auntie Em, Dorothy's aunt in the Wizard of OZ, this appealed to me ) universe would be in all respects exactly like our own with the charges of the particles reversed. Filaments of plasma separate matter and Auntie Em to avoid annihilation.

This is an entire new approach to understanding the universe, although Hannes Alfven's research is decades old, observations agree with predictions, and the theory is sound and gaining respect. The slew of Big Bang theorists are slow to even look at something that challenges the Big Bang model. This would be like flushing their entire careers down the drain, yes?

I bought the book in a retail store, but you can order it fro

It is worth the read. Perhaps you could then explain it all to me. Damn Calculus.

Uh Huh

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:35 - ID#339274)
addendum to Randgold
Two banks have almost a 50 % control,one of them is Standard bank

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:36 - ID#340459)
Webster Hubbell indicted on several criminal charges, Friends of the US President are implicated in
criminal acts and Gold dives and Dollar strengthens. Something is wrong with this world that is ruled by insatiable Wall Street Sharks that devour tuna ( goldbugs ) .................

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:37 - ID#410114)
Junk Silver quote

The WSJ has the prior days close. I'll post it tommorow. I've gotten quotes from the locals that are all over the place.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:42 - ID#411331)
@farfel Thank you for a surprisingly long answer to my questions concerning
the forces driving the spot gold markets. My appologies for not posting earlier, but duty ( employment ) called. Without an economics background,
I feel that I flounder in a sea of ignorance. Your essay ( and it can be called nothing else ) was a generous hand held out to a stranger who struggles to understand the scope of the financial catastrophe that approaches the American Empire. My background is geology and mineralogy, fields which do impinge on the field of interest here at Kitco. If you have a question concerning ore mineralogy, or genesis, I would be most willing to assist.

With respect to my questions, it would be most interesting to see what would happen to the spot price of gold if the European CB's stopped leasing gold. Period. I wonder if they will stop right after they announce their gold backing of the EURO, next week! Thanks again.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:43 - ID#26793)
Mr. Yen expresses resentment at those who blame Asian problems on Japan.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:43 - ID#20135)

Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 16:40
arden ( eligible comex gold stocks down ) ID#201238:
Copyright  1998 arden/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

477,406 13,955 0 13,955 4,723 496,084
167,035 0 0 0 -4,723 162,312
644,441 13,955 0 13,955 0 658,396

Great news Arden. Definitely looks like they are playing the same old game. Total stocks up, BUT eligible gold stocks down BY

4,723 ounces. Plain folks just want to get the real thing ... no more paper gold. They are taking the actual bullion.

4,723 * $306.40 = a measley $1,446,324.29 is all it took to get 3% of all the eligible gold comex has in its warehouses.

$49.8 million and the rest is gone....

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:44 - ID#410198)
Rob,Junk silver,forget WSJ, take spot x 715oz = cash value,as a dealer I add 3% tocover shipping,
handling and insurance,spreads differ from dealer to dealer

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:49 - ID#410215)
..... Junk Silver .....

Rob -

Today's ask for 90% silver coins is $4,302. This works out to about 6.02 per ounce. $1000 face value, 715 ounces silver.

40% Clad Coins ask is $1,732 which is about 5.87 per ounce. $1000 face value, 295 ounces silver.

Because of the weight, shipping is $75.

How does this compare?


Steve in TO__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:49 - ID#209265)
Mozel , JTF - wierder than gravity or inertia
LAst night you were talking about gravity ( TIC : ) and we have since heard about a great new theory of inertia that may even put new light on the speed of light measurements that Einstein used as the foundation for some of the stranger predictions from his Relativity Theory.

One strange result that puts physicists into depp denial is the fact that the sped of light has possibly been changing with time. Measurements performed since the 17th century have been consistently trending downward, albeit by tiny amounts. This threatens to cause apoplexy in orthodox physicists- so to avoid having a stroke they push it out of mind by saying that earlier measurements were not as accurate as those done today, and differences are due to improvements in methodology.

The problem is the changes all occur in one direction ( downward ) with time, not randomly up and down as would be predicted if errors were the cause, and in many cases, the changes measured are larger than the experimental error of the method used.

Is nothing sacred anymore? Is nothing constant at all? As the article you referred to indicated, JTF, physicists have always wanted something as a constant reference, whether it was the absolute space of Newton, Mach's totality of the stars, or Einstein's speed of light. Kicking out the c-prop from under them would be just too much. I still have the paper on the issue, buried in a box somewhere. The fellow who published it was roundly vilified, in an earlier age he would probably have been burned at the stake or confined under house arrest like Galileo.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:56 - ID#429270)
Dirty tricks recipe...two decent commodities, a federal reserve ; a government
add two wall street Money Powers ( bear stearns, goldman sachs, or merrill lynch ) , one spokesman ( Wayne Angel ) , two time periods ( weekend and monthend ) and one manufactured statistic ( GDP advance ) . Bake in a Thursday afternoon oven to precipitate at two oclock. Disappear until
next month

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:56 - ID#342315)
robnoel re junk ag
I'm not ready at the moment, but how about emailing me so when. Thanx

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:56 - ID#359316)
"Donald Apr 29 19:43, farfel
"Constantine, who struck his first gold coin in Constantinople in 383 A.D. ...Bezants as they were called" you said.

The Crusades of the 11th Century arose, in part, because of the indignation caused by the imposition of a tax of one bezant ( by the Fatemite caliphs, who were more greedy for money than the renowned Haroun al-Rashid of earlier times ) for each pilgrim that entered Jerusalem. The pilgrims who were unable to pay had to remain at the gate until a wealthy pilgrim passed by and donated the bezant ( debased or not notwithstanding ) . The Turks, who overthrew the Caliphs of Baghdad in the 11th Century began a systematic persecution of the pilgrims while pilgrims still waited, for months, at the gates of Jerusalem, in the hope of eventually being able to pay the golden bezant. As a "gold key opens many doors" so has gold played a pivotal role in world history- and has not stopped doing so.

farfel: ...the great Kitco Barometer.... A great idea. One destined one day for the books, alongside the "hemline indicator".

(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:56 - ID#26793)
Average price of gold is $627 for the past 200 years adjusted to 1998 dollars.

Tyler Rose
(Thu Apr 30 1998 17:56 - ID#373164)
A. Goose - COMEX
I took delivery on a COMEX Dec 97 gold contract. It took until the middle of march to get it, mostly ( IMHO ) due to the fact that few brokerages or Republic National Bank ( depository for COMEX ) have any experience with delivery being taken. In other words, most contracts are offset before the expiration date of the future. The bar that I finally received was 104.26 ounces of four 9's fine gold ( 99.9999% pure ) . I took the bar to a refiner who didn't even assay it, as it was a JMRI bar. I then traded the bar for newly minted golden eagles, as it is sort of difficult to barter with an 8 pound bar of gold.

I had some e-mail from other kitcoites that indicated I would not get a four 9's bar, but I did!

Hope this helps some one!

Tyler Rose

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:00 - ID#288295)
Is it the SIZE of the loss ( not the fact that there was a loss ) that's scaring everone out of RANGY? Surely it isn't the breakup of the company.....John Disney ( I think it was ) outlined that for us some time ago, so it shouldn't be any surprise. Actually ( depending on what happens to gold in the interim ) the breakup is what I like about the potential of the company...all the bad news is in, and their holdings of DROOY and HGMCY might be worth quite a lot in a couple months.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:03 - ID#24135)
din din din ... hey Waterboy
for Gunga Din ..
Thats good .. you sell ALL your
RSA stock and BUY all NA stock .. I think
that's groovey ...
But ... you'll be wearing those
funny diapers and carrying water for
the troops for the rest of your life.
If anything .. rsa mining stocks
have more stringent reporting regulations
than US stocks... but you should learn
the HARD way... money's not everything

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:04 - ID#26793)
There is a gold Bezant called the "Crusader" struck between 1188 and 1250 AD. It is fully inscribed in Arabic but issued by the Christians. Minting ( at Acre ) was halted when the Pope objected to the Islamic design. Will that part of the world ever be at peace?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:07 - ID#429270)
Dirty tricks recipe...two commodities, a federal reserve ; a government
spokesman; add two Wall Street money powers ( e.g. Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, or Merrill Lynch ) , one spokesman ( Wayne Angel ) , two time periods ( weekend and monthend ) and one manufactured statistic ( GDP advance ) .

Bake in a Thursday afternoon oven, to precipitate at two oclock; then disappear until next time manipulation is needed.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:09 - ID#194311)
Gold $250 no problem
SDRer; a truism on the Chinese need for stability, but could it be that this goes hand in hand with conservatism, which has inherent drawbacks. No risk takers, no dreamers, could be why western technology and science has got so far ahead....we agree East meets West....but does a strict money supply ( gol-backed ) straight-jacket risk taking?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:10 - ID#410215)
.... Golden Light or Gold and Light .....

There will be no announcement of gold holdings to come out of this weekend.

Euro CBs must continue to lease, for if they do not, their neighbor Shirley will. ( sorry surely ) Tis a cutthroat world.

Steve in TO -

Are you sure that this is a not function of more accurate measuring devices? Each time I read of the nature of light, it is our old friend; speed never to be bested; inviolate, unchanging in the void. Could you post some sources on this info?


Or e-mail to


Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:10 - ID#384350)
Interest Rates
It has been said that the Fed doesn't set interest rates; the market does. Sometimes the US may coerce nations into buying its debt, through military presence, scare-mongering, etc and thus keep its rates lower than what they should have been in light of its trade deficit.

But we are now at critical times. When Big Fat Uncle Sam is eying some poor Asians last bowl of rice, that poor Asian might just tell Uncle Sam to find someone else to milk. The recent runup in bond prices might just signal that. That there is too much supply of US Debt, and not enough takers. The Fed will just make it look like it was its own idea to raise rates, not that rates are rising because the trade deficit is out of control and the Asians have their hands full at home and will/can no longer accept taking IOU's ( US Treasuries ) .

Dollars? We don't need your stinkin' dollars. We got Gold.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:11 - ID#410198)
Chas,your EMail did not go through,I'am heading for Colorado tomorrow,will be back in a week,

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:11 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 16:02
Aragorn III ( An analogy to clear away the mist that remains ) ID#212323:
Copyright  1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

which none of us have access. They also are blackedout as far as coverage is concerned. I get the feeling that LBMA does not wish to have to many non-members viewing the daily workings of their markets.

BUT, if you have daily, weekly data on what exactly is going on at the LBMA PLEASE share it with us. url's would be greatly appreciated.

I believe that the comex is indeed a microcosm of LBMA ( yes more manipulated but the games and game plans are similar though it is provided by our amusement mainly. )

The drop in comex stocks should not be ignored. Depositories closings should not be ignored.

BUT it would be great to get valid daily data on LBMA.

Until valid daily/weekly data is provided, I strongly suggest that to ignore the workings of comex is not wise. If comex closes, runs out of gold, or , it will be an important event.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:11 - ID#342315)
Trinovant re yours on Const.
You may alredy know about Croesus, but if not, it' interesting how he handled gold. The best reference on the beginning of money I have ever seen is THE ORIGIN OF METALLIC CURRENCY AND WEIGHT STANDARDS by William Ridgeway, orig 1895 Oxford. Today a reprint by Singing Tree Press, 1970. Extreme detailed evidence and history. If no luck otherwise, try interlibrary loan

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:15 - ID#342315)
robnoel re missed email
Thanx for the notice. Next week ok. I'll get back on ISP. Have a good one

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:21 - ID#20135)
Tlyer, yes it helps. Thanks.

I would appreciate data from any and all others ( Lurkers please help ) that have exerienced or are experiencing the process of taking delivery of gold from comex.

It is very helpful.

Arden's question:
"Has anyone asked what they quality of the remaining eligible stocks are? I mean, if someone had delivered a nice JM bar of 100 oz into comex and someone else had deposited a crude looking bar with funny shaped markings on it weighing almost 99 ozs, which bar would be the first one delivered to customers? Just asking, you know."

Other data on the process of getting the actual delivery is also desired.

Thanks in advance.

Old Soldier
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:22 - ID#185274)
How to buy junk silver at or below spot and have fun doing it
I have bought and sold junk silver on a small time basis for over 30 years. Good places to look for junk silver ( pre 1965 U.S. dimes, quarters and halves ) include pawn shops, flea markets, gun shows, and antique shows. People who sell at these places price junk silver in terms of how many times face value they want for the silver. A sample exchange:
You, "How close to spot can you get on those coins?"
Seller, "Well those are not really junk but I can let you have them for 8 times face."
You, "Well by my calculation with spot at $6.20 times 7, they are worth at most 4.3 times face."
Then commences the real haggling.
Sometimes you get an answer you really like, "Well I dont have a price in mind I got into them right. Make me an offer." In those cases I usually make and offer around spot times 6.
It is to your advantage to make it known from the start that you intend to pay cash and if you have the resources that you intend to take all the seller has.
Following these guidelines, and doing some searching, you can find all the junk silver you want at or well under spot. Besides, I enjoy the looking and the haggling.
Sterling silver, gold bullion, and karat gold jewelry can be bought in similar fashion if you know the rules and the lingo.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:22 - ID#411331)
@A.Goose This was not a good day for gold on the COMEX, yet available gold still
declined by 4,723 0z. At this rate, COMEX has 35 business days left until available stocks are zero. Sounds even better this way, doesn't it?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:24 - ID#342315)
A.Goose re COT
I finally got a 3.5 full of data back thru 96. But it was all commodities! I am waiting on CFTC to call and tell me how to get just gold. The damn gremlins have piled up with Murphy on pertinent details. Will let you know.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:26 - ID#410215)
..... JD, Your new Portfolio .....

JD - wrote:

"Money's not everything."

I too am careful to quote accurately or suffer cryptic posts from JD in which I must decipher the deeper meaning. Perhaps only a shallow grasp can ever be had. I am certain JD can speak wisely on this subject, as he makes no money and has no crients.

He does, however, have a bright future in the new Kitco administration as Minister of the Ground and All that is Underneath. It was necessary to procure good digs ( a cool pad, man. A way out flat ) so that he may dig good. He is still open regarding the salary, but has insisted that a Russian Blond must be part of an overall package.

I think he will acquit himself proudly in this high profile, low to the ground position. Should he quit in disgust with the petty bureaucratic squabbles, his return ticket will be by cattle boat, or mail plane, and coins shall be placed in his purse for safe conveyance..


(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:31 - ID#288369)
@Lord Disney, Cyclist and Silverbaron............
Thank you for the input this afternoon ( US ) on Randgold...I'm in there with you and will buy a bit more tomorrow. Isure!....this may take a bit of time, but it will be well worth the wait...if the POG holds. An exciting bet, eh? Whew! This is a risky little critter.

Lan Man
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:33 - ID#317183)
@To LGB ie Silver Dollars
You stated "In general, well circulated, cleaned, etc. common date Morgans and Peace dollars are worth only a small premium over spot. they're in the $5.00 to $7.00 range currently depending on condition, date, and such. "

So, tell me where I can buy these at "$5 to $7 ea."? Last I saw, they had a premium over new Silver Eagles...

Old Soldier
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:41 - ID#185274)
Lan Man--Silver Dollars
See my earlier post on junk silver and go to the same places to find silver dollars. Silver dollars contain approximately 770 troy oz of silver per $1,000 face. ( Experts check me on this. ) They always have a greater premium than the equivalent face value of smaller coins. The best I have been able to do on silver dollars lately was $7.00 each in cash and in quantity. LGB is simply a better haggler than I am.
Correction on my last post I dropped decimal points in front of my .7 and .6 multipliers. They have always been too tiny for me to hande easily.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:46 - ID#26669)
Themissinglink re greens: apologies
My apology for any unintended insult re my remarks to Retired Soldier last night about the German Green movement. But looking back at them I could see how one who was unfamiliar with the German political situation of the Cold War era could take offense. IMHO

The Greens as mentioned were Marxist/Leninist/Maoist political party front allied with small time terrorists along the line of the US Earth First! movement and the Unabomber. They specialized in low grade antipersonell and materials destruction efforts against US NATO troops with fire bombings, poisonings, booby traps and the like which were designed to harrass, demoralize and discredit our troops. They had little if anything to do with mainstream US or German environmental awareness; their beliefs were so rigid they would have considered even the small time pollution produced by a family jeweler worthy of reprisal. IMHO

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:47 - ID#307271)
Thanks to my Mentor I sold half of my RANGY yesterday. Had I heeded His advice, I would have sold it all. Hopefully the remaining half will resurrect. As to peace: We all want peace, but there will be none untilyou say, 'Blessed is He who comes in the name of the LORD!'"Lk13:35

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:48 - ID#31868)
In the event of a major correction or crash, all that glitters is not gold
PWN on NASDAQ - This stock is an animal...dive in when ready...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:51 - ID#266105)

Took half the gains from earlier dispossession of
Harmony and Durban and added to the Rangold position today.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:55 - ID#347235)
@ Themissinglink
I agree with 223 you got the wrong idea about the German green party as opposed to the one in Alaska or some other parts of the US. I agree we should not deliberately thrash the environment, but some those extreme tree huggers dont want anything new built or explored for gripe my tuchas

(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:57 - ID#31868)
Okay, what does everyone know we don't?
Go take a gander at MAN in Canada...

Lan Man
(Thu Apr 30 1998 18:59 - ID#317183)
@Old Soldier ie Silver Dollars
Got It. $7 ea and in quantity. Obviously one would pay more for a small quantity such as 20 or 40 at a time. Just don't want people to think that they can get that price when all they want to spend is a few hundred $ at a time...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:01 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 18:24
chas ( A.Goose re COT ) ID#342315

Nothing comes easily. Keep plugging, we are all looking forward to seeing your results. I would love to know what bullion stock levels were 2 years ago.

Everthing seems very slow, is it just me.

Got to run. BBL

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:02 - ID#237149)
Kitco's graphs
Kitco's graphs are often inverted. The gold lines should be on top of the graph since its likely to go down, and the silver tracks should be on the bottom, since its more likely to go up from here...

Crystal Ball
(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:04 - ID#287372)
My two cents worth
There's gonna be fireworks perhaps as early as tomorrow. June gold is gonna break down decisively below $306. Although bonds were up like a bugger today, they're still down for the week! Although the DOW was up over a hundred, it ended on its low; $MSH ( Morgan Stanley Tech Stock Index ) also ended on its low. MSFT was actually lower on the day to 90 1/8; and 80 or lower seems inevitable in the next two weeks. All stock indexes are extremely overbought near term, and tomorrow should provide the beginning of a VERY nasty sell-off. AOL, which yesterday broke out of the 70 - 76 5/8 consolidation into new high ground just above 80 due to a Merrill Lynch buy recommendation, made a key reversal lower today. It could be the specialists / market makers sold their remaining inventory when all the buy stops were hit above 77. AOL earnings come out Tuesday, May 5th. We all know what happens when the players are disappointed..... AOL, with its P/E over 600, could easily drop 10 or 20 points or more.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:05 - ID#410215)
..... A Goose & Chas .....

Perhaps I have this info at the office, or could get easily. You are looking for historical COMEX stocks of gold, Yes?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:08 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 18:22

You have to love it rhody.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:09 - ID#434158)
John Dinsney re Rangold
John, my post was a request for information sources. To respond with an ad hominem attack, and a flippant one at that, seems either childish or desparate. Got anything better?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:10 - ID#257136)
y2k best look out!! MARCAM SOLUTIONS
Just returned from Oklahoma and was informed by the spouse of a co. which was discussed on CNBC some time today.
She said it was stated the co. Marcam, has a software solution for the y2k problem.
Said the co's stock was goin' up !
I know it would have been better for me to read ALL the post from today, but don't have time, dern ut!
Any one out there have any concrete knowledge of the outfit and its veracity?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:11 - ID#57232)
Hannes Alfven
RJ: Thanks for the reference. I was looking for something that covered Hannes Alfven's work on ZPE/dark matter. Did you know he got the Nobel Prize for his more conventional work, but the work that you described was suppressed? That is why I had trouble finding anything. Apparently either some of it did get out, or the suppressors have decided it is time to let the world know about his work. Reminds me of Linus Pauling and his work on Vitamin C. Even with two Nobel prizes he was ridiculed.

One thing I still cannot reconcile in my mind is the ( wild? ) idea that certain ideas/concepts might be suppressed because we were truly not ready for them - such as an interstellar drive. On the other hand it may just be sheer pigheadedness/narrowmindedness by certain individuals that control what gets published and what does not. The former conspiracy theory would be one with a twist -- namely that the rate of our evolution into a Star-faring race might be manipulated. Humbling thought, and not provable, just like most conspiracy theories.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:15 - ID#269191)
Sounds bullish to me. If the company has a NAV of 10 rands ( $1.97 U.S. ) ,
then a break-up will add shareholder value. If I had more to invest
I'd buy more.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:21 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
I must have a death wish. The urge to stand in front of this train for
before Clinton's news conference is intense.

bonds trying to test their high.

what an appropriate time/place to trap the lemmings.

--- good idea. This is a zoo day. Best to stand in front of the cages
and gawk at this point.

of coures being rational in a mania is dangerous.

the front-page news in every paper is that Monica has no immunity from
prosecution, there's high-fives all around the White House today

klinidiot will have rubin standing by, with bid in hand, if any
trouble develops. The art of meglamania.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:22 - ID#340459)
Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merril Lynch claims that this is the best economic times in the
History of United States. He expects that Stocks will continue to climb atleast till the end of this year. He says that Stocks are not over valued, Blah Blah Blah..................

Their seems a concerted effort to take the majority of citizens to the cleaners within a year. The Clinton approval rating as epoused by the media is at an all time high inspite of all the 'right wing' orchestrated

Some big time deception is at hand, Brothers......

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:22 - ID#434158)
DEJ @ Rangy
Guess I still don't know what I'm doing yet. Does NAV take into consideration the cost of extraction? Thanks.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:25 - ID#269191)
That's the liquidating value: fmv of assets - liabilities. Extraction
costs are irrelevant if the company is breaking-up

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:30 - ID#269191)
Maybe I misunderstood you. Perhaps by extraction costs you mean
the transaction costs of liquidating the company. If they spin-off
the assets to the shareholders, I don't think the transaction costs
would be that great.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:36 - ID#288369)
It's probably "book value" of assets minus current and long-term liabilities.......not utilizing "market" value of assets....Disney said it is customary for RSA's to EXPENSE capital expenditures instead of depreciating/depleting them...hence, huge loses at times of large investment. Also, if you expense capital items, there would no "basis" on the books to write down. Sounds like bare-bone accounting to me...if you had a $300 million rand "operating" loss, you wouldn't be around to make an announcement. This holding company is obviously an aggressive investor ( exploration ) . Not for the faint of heart...pass me the bottle. ( gulp )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:36 - ID#255190)
AJ@Y2K "solutions"

Plenty of 'solutions' out there. This focuses on the technical side of the problem, which is somewhat mundane. Its the logistics of remediating and the politics of managing which will kill us here.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:37 - ID#45173)
@ChasAbar: I'm a Y2K skeptic reporting from the front lines
Well, at least, I was a skeptic until I hit the road and started selling software to the people who work for the companies that have systems to fix. I thought Y2K was a hook for Chicken Little types to hang their projected anxieties on and for hungry consultants to get a gig. And that may be true, there are Chicken Little types and hungry consultants. But it is also true from what I see, that any observant mind might conclude, that events will occur over the next 18 months that will lift a veil of unawareness we all wear, and will give us a knowledge of how our world has evolved to operate, and show us its fundemental mechanisms of exchange, business transactions, currency, money, and value, and reveal the basis of our confidence in the system we do not now comprehend, a confidence based on predictability. These events will change our view of our world, at first gradually and later explosively as the new knowledge and its meaning is processed and we begin to make decisions based on our new knowledge.

Still haven't decided what's going to happen, exactly. But a picture is emerging, like the image in binoculars when you adjust the focus. Still blurry, the Y2K events unfolding. I appreciate your support and your hanging in there with me as I tell you what I am learning.

One thing is for sure. When the knowledge is in us, and processed and absorbed, and the consequences are bared to all, we will marvel at how well it all once worked and will long for a return to the times we live in today.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:39 - ID#26793)
Can you give a little more commentary to go with the chart you posted around 1500? How do you determine underpricing and overpricing?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:40 - ID#290118)
gold confiscation
Trading makes money ( hopefully ) which gets plowed back into making more money. But for those of us who prefer to squirrel some physical assets away must consider the possibility.
One day the government gets a burr under its saddle and decides to confiscate every ounce we have sweated, wrangled and argued over.
It was done before.
And as was noted elsewhere in this forum - those under age 45 have precious little historical sense of reality.
One edict from on high - and it's gone!
Same goes for the hoarders of guns, ammo and years of food.
One edict from on high can nationalize and confiscate all our gold, silver, guns, ammo, food, etc. for the "general welfare". All we have worked for will be GONE!
And those of us who are known gold bugs, gun nuts and food squirrels ( because of our activity on the Net, periodical subscriptions. book purchases, and what we checked out at the library ) --- our doors will be the first ones knocked upon ( or down ) .
Fiction you say. Hypothetical nonsense some cry.
It has happened within our lifetimes.
It has happened HERE!
It CAN happen again!
Even if we bury our valuables in the backyard - as soon as we dig them up to use them some stoolie will squeal and we'll be in the hoosegow! Or we end up defending them from hungry hoards.
Now I sound like the rest of the doomsayers!
Except for trading gold to make money is actually buying the physical stuff an exercise in futility and a risk to our welfare?
So what is a humble squirrel to do?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:40 - ID#404246)
re Randgold

I agree with the RANGY bulls here. To all of those who sold it at 1 9/32 this afternoon, I bought as much of it as I could afford. If it goes down to 1 1/4 I'll hock something.

The comments by the honcho from Randgold almost sound like he personally wants to drive the price down. What could he have to gain?

Lord Disney you gotta watch out about attacking some one in the hominem. I'm sure it's sinfull if not worse. I think you mentioned that Anglogold was trying out for the NYSE. Thanks for the heads up. ( If not you, then thanks to whom ever said it )

GungaDin what's wrong with being "flippant", especially when you're not being paid.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:41 - ID#284255)
Gartner Predicts: Europeans slow to tackle Y2K
US Executives Support Microsoft, Fear Y2K - Poll
Military targets Y2K computer threat
Bennett to lead 'millennium bug' battle

"In fact, the time to solve the entire problem is gone. We do not have enough time,"

Senate leaders said the resulting computer crashes and malfunctions could be truly apocalyptic possibly bringing power outages, shutting down worldwide communication and crashing financial markets.
"We have to make sure the power grid operates. But utilities also include such things as clean water . . . The processing and controlling of water purification plants and so on are run by computer,

   "There's already a major national telecommunications firm that has announced to its customers that it will not guarantee a dial tone on any of its telephones outside the United States and certain parts of Europe after Jan. 1, 2000,

   Bennett added that besides air traffic, "Truck traffic is monitored by computers. Rail traffic ( also has ) cars ( that ) are routed by computers."

   He said he also worries about financial services ( where bank accounts and credit card powers could disappear ) , government services ( including mailing Social Security checks ) and general business services.

   For example, "General Motors has done a survey in every one of its manufacturing facilities and found that every one of them could be shut down with Y2K problems."

   "Yet, it is becoming apparent to all of us that a once seemingly innocuous computer glitch relating to how computers recognize dates could wreak worldwide havoc,"

   He added it could, "cause the failure of weapons systems, widespread disruption of business operations, possible misdiagnosis or improper medical treatment . . . and incorrect traffic signals at street corners across the country."
Dodd On Millennium Bug Panel
IRS braces for year 2000 collapse
Federal Reserve official warns of Y2K work impact$defaultview/BE3B4EC90731BCDB852565F5005AB80E

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:50 - ID#434158)
Studio.R, DEJ
Thanks for the info. I got in without enough preparation, and I know better than that. There's probably a place in the portfolio for this kind of investment, but that's not where I had it.

In all the discussion of SA stocks the past few weeks I've seen no mention of Anglo American. Anyone following that here?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:51 - ID#267276)
The people I know who own guns have no intention of turning them in. They are honest hard working shooters and hunters who realize the importance of being able to defend their family and property. I remember watching on t.v. about a year and a half ago or so a interview with a old jewish man who survived the death camps. He was asked why they did not fight back when they were in the getto and before, he said BECAUSE WE HAD NO WEAPONS. They made the mistake of letting the nazi's register and then confiscate their guns. Americans must remember this lesson.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:52 - ID#31868)
sharefin - re 19:41 the link to Gartnet
It produces a page saying they are having technical difficulties, check back later. No kidding, or is the joke on me.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:52 - ID#176200)
I do fear your scenario in the future but I also think that
if they were to call the guns alone the feds would run out
of confiscators very quickly and would draw fire everywhere
they showed up. The executive orders you speak of are real
and could be enacted at any time. A good excuse could be Y2K.
Gee the gold confiscation in the 30's worked real well huh!?
There are tons of double eagles out there that should have
grabbed but were not. It would be very ugly though...

not speaking for my employer. :- )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:52 - ID#26793)
IMF says "no currency stays pegged forever" (never heard of gold I guess

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:52 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...RE: your 16:08...thanks for the good laugh...
...another classic piece of gold short revisionism! It's almost as funny as your definition of stagflation.

Awaaaaay to the Theatre, my friend!!



John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:53 - ID#24135)
How about a glass of water ..
you're a hardcase .. hardcase..
And ALWAYS go for the hominen ..
and yes that was me ..
and heads up or is it heads down .. Im
sleepy .
I go to bed now.. but in the dying childish and yes
desparate moments before my nowIlaymes... a few words
to those of many press reports and few numbers....
Randgold has about 40 mill shares .. at $1.5 thats
60 mill $. for Half of that .. 30 mill you get
about half of RRS ( rangold resources ) .. they HAVE syama
operating now and the loulo mine is under construction.
A heap leach plant will be on in early 1999.
the total capacity is 270,000 + 140,000 + 30,000
for syama,loulo, amd the heapleach. or a whopping
440,000 oz/year .. you get all that for 60 million
US$ .. ( ie half for 30 mill ) .
Is that a good deal ... well lets see .. Ashanti
in Ghana. does 1,100,000 oz annually .. so you can buy
the equivalent of 40 per cent of ashanti for 60 mill
Is that a good deal ?? well lets see ..
Market cap of ashanti is 920 mill at $8.5 a share
and 40% of that is 370 million $
Now we talk 60 million for something like 370
million worth of mine not to mention all kinds of
other projects all over Africa.
yes .. gunga .. dont buy it .. heads up...
you did the right thing .. good night

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:54 - ID#26669)
Missed PAASF news
Here's a report from a week and a half ago I missed when it came out. This is one of the stocks I follow at a distance and I noticed it was up today a little.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:55 - ID#31868)

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:56 - ID#26793)
New York closing gold news and comment. (note Portugal comment

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:58 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update
U.S. Reportedly Deploys "Bunker-Busters" to the Persian Gulf

According to an April 28 report in the London-based newspaper "Al-Quds al-
Arabi," the United States has recently restructured its air units in
Bahrain in a manner which seems to indicate an increased preparedness to
carry out strikes against Iraq. The newspaper reported that the previous
deployment of 18 F-16 Falcon multi-role fighters, two B-1 bombers, and four
KC-135 in-flight refueling tankers has been replaced by a new air wing
consisting of 12 F-15 Eagle interceptors, 12 F-15A Strike Eagle attack
aircraft, 12 F-16 fighters, three B-1 bombers and four KC-135 tankers. The
most significant feature of this new force structure, notes Al-Quds al-
Arabi, is the fact that the long-range F-15A strike aircraft are capable of
carrying 5,000 pound bunker-penetrating bombs. The "bunker busters" would
be necessary for any attack on Iraq's command and control infrastructure to
be effective, since it is believed that Iraq's headquarters,
communications, and arsenals of banned arms and munitions are located in
bunkers deep underground. The newspaper questioned whether this deployment
marked the beginning of a quiet U.S. build-up in anticipation of a
breakdown in relations with Iraq.

If the United States is, in fact, preparing for yet another strike against
Saddam Hussein, this move comes at an unusual time. Even the Clinton
administration has acknowledged that Iraq has recently been unusually
cooperative with UN inspectors. Iraq appears to be cooperating with U.S.
ally Turkey on finally eliminating the PKK. U.S. officials in the Gulf
have begun to reassert the threat posed to the region by Iran. The
domestic political situation in Tehran appears to be deteriorating,
foreboding more pressing concerns in the region than Iraqi posturing.
Finally, the omnipresent atmosphere of scandal in Washington has
temporarily subsided, and hardly calls for a foreign "distraction."

As our long-time readers are aware, apparent U.S. preparation for air
strikes against Iraq runs counter to our analysis of the situation in the
Gulf. We have argued that the United States has turned away from a
planned crushing attack against Saddam Hussein, out of concern over such a
move strengthening Iran. It is possible that U.S. strategy in the region
has once again fundamentally shifted, or that this event lacks the
significance attributed it by the Arabic press. Either way, the presence
of "bunker busters" in the Gulf is worth noting.

Ask the Surf Guru.

One last thing: Let's keep our crises straight. January 1, 2000 is when all the world's computers are due to freak out.
The millennium, however, actually starts on January 1, 2001,not 2000, so all those apocalyptic messiah-proclaiming, gun-buying, shelter-building, flying saucer-watching cults are going to have to hold their collective breath one more year.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 19:58 - ID#288369)
Really, if you want an RSA that will out-perform the mean, achieve earnings growth predictably as the POG rises and not explode in your face if the POG falls....HARMONY. Disney said it's the biggest part of his portfolio....that's the critical piece of info you need. IMHO

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:00 - ID#210114)
I wish they would shut the f*** up!

I am getting a little bit sick of off the cuff remarks by central bankers re: ECB gold reserves. Why don't they just shut up until the decision has been made and announced.

Thursday April 30, 4:41 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals end mostly lower, led by gold

NEW YORK, April 30 ( Reuters ) - COMEX gold prices ended lower Thursday on good volume,
leading the New York precious metals complex to a mostly weaker close.

``One investment bank continued to be a good buyer, but the statement by the Bank of Portugal
suggesting the European Central Bank may hold only 10-20 pct of its reserves in gold may have
disappointed some people,'' said Scott Mehlman, chief bullion dealer with Credit Lyonnais Rouse in
New York.

``A few stop orders also went off as spot gold bullion closed back below its 200 day moving
average,'' he said.

COMEX June gold ended down $3.70 an ounce at $307.80 an ounce, after trading a
$313.30-306.50 intraday range. Total COMEX gold volume was estimated around 50,000 lots.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $306.40/90 an ounce, compared with the London
Thursday afternoon fix at $310.70 and Wednesday's New York close at $310.50/00.

Spot gold prices had climbed back above their 200-day moving average in the past 10 days, for the
first time since 1996, suggesting a longer term recovery in gold prices may have begun, but
Thursday's slide cast doubt on that conclusion, analysts said.

Implied gold lease rates remained around 0.85 percent per annum for one month and 1.90 pct for
12 months, after declining steadily in recent weeks, reflecting short covering by speculators in the
OTC market and additional producer buy-backs of forward hedging positions, as well as increased
market liquidity from central bank lending.

The focus remains on the weekend's meeting in Brussels which will confirm which European
countries will participate in EMU ( European Monetary Union ) and possibly make decisions on
setting up the European Central Bank ( ECB ) , though a decision on how much gold the ECB will
hold in its reserves is not likely until the first ECB board meeting due in June, analysts said.

In industry news Thursday, the Bank of Portugal's governor, Antonio de Sousa, said he thought
gold should form between 10 and 20 percent of the reserves of the future European Central Bank.

Portugal's reserves stand at $18.24 billion in March and included some 620 tonnes of gold valued at
market prices.

``As we are approaching closer to the formation of the ECB, gold's holdings by the ECB will
become more clarified, so concerns about central bank sales that have clouded the market since the
beginning of 1997 are likely to become less of an issue,'' said Prudential Securities analyst Clarence

Meanwhile, COMEX July silver ended down 1.0 cent at $6.230 an ounce, after trading a
$6.340-6.170 intraday range.

Silver prices were expected to remain well supported above $6.00 an ounce based on low levels of
COMEX stocks and identifiable bullion inventories, prospects for another supply/demand deficit
this year which will drawdown inventories further, and the substantial long position held by US
billionaire Warren Buffett, which is not likely to be liquidated at current levels, analysts said.

In the platinum group metals markets, NYMEX July platinum ended down $4.30 an ounce at
$400.40, but NYMEX June palladium ended up $2.80 at $309.70.

In the physical market, palladium lease rates remained quoted close to 200 pct per annum for one
month, reflecting the ongoing supply shortage due to the suspension of Russian palladium and
platinum exports since last December.

In industry news Thursday, the near depletion of palladium ore at key Russian producer Norilsk
Nickel has driven the white metal's recent price surge to all time highs around $390 an ounce, a
Canadian mining firm said on Thursday.

Seymour Schulich, chairman of Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd ( FN.TO - news ) , told analysts at
a London presentation that the company believed the Norilsk ore body was close to depletion.

Russian supplies about 60 pct of the world's palladium.

More Quotes and News:
Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd ( Toronto:FN.TO - news )
Related News Categories: COMEX


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Questions or Comments?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:01 - ID#26793)
Getchell Gold news.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:03 - ID#284255)
I just checked the link and its fine.
May be to many people trying to read the link at the same time.
Nothing really new just his latest report.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:03 - ID#238295)
New gold fund announced:

Tocqueville Going for Gold

With gold playing a close second to Albanian pyramid schemes as the worst investment in recent years, it's no surprise that
fund families haven't rushed to expand their offerings.

But with gold prices and equities jumping this year, it was only a matter of time before new gold funds hit the block. Up first
is Tocqueville Gold, which is slated to open in late June. The last gold fund to open was Gabelli Gold ( Nasdaq:GOLDX -
news ) in 1994, according to Lipper Analytical Services.

The severe beating that the commodity has taken in its 18-year downward spiral, combined with several catalysts, have
Tocqueville, a contrarian value shop, optimistic that it is starting the fund in time to catch gold's bull market.

"The derision in the financial press ... is so thick that it gets our juices flowing," says John Hathaway, who will run
Tocqueville Gold. "Gold could be where Treasury bonds were in 1982, when they were called certificates of confiscation."

In making the case for gold, Hathaway says that he thinks most analysts are underestimating the likelihood of inflation
reappearing, given the strength of the U.S. economy. He adds that the upcoming European Monetary Union will have the
salutary effect of creating one gold policy for the continent. At present, gold selling by one country's central bank can set off
similar moves by other central banks. The countries with the most votes regarding how much gold the new Central Bank
will hold are Germany, France and Italy, all of which have a substantial interest in seeing the metal head higher.

"The risk in owning gold is very low," Hallaway says. "We might be a year early, but we'd rather be early than late."

Reasons behind the sharp spike in gold funds, up 21.9% year to date through Thursday, were detailed in a TSC story last

Tocqueville has been building up a position in Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM - news ) in its funds over the past two years.
Because gold is a separate asset class, Tocqueville has decided to open a new fund rather than add more gold to its equity

The new fund will be required to hold at least 65% of its assets in gold. Hallaway expects to invest in some other inflation
hedges such as palladium and other metals. He will be looking at Stillwater Mining ( AMEX:SWC - news ) , a miner of
platinum and palladium, and nickel producer Inco ( NYSE:N - news ) , both of which are currently Tocqueville holdings.

Hallaway was the chief investment officer at Oakhall Capital Advisors before he joined Tocqueville in late 1996 as a
portfolio manager running separate accounts.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:04 - ID#31868)
Many thanks to the fin that shares.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:05 - ID#434158)
John Disney @Glass of Water
You see, John, you CAN do better! And my hominem is doing better, too, thanks. The info really does help, sorry I missed it earlier. It's a little difficult to find that sort of thing when you don't know where to look.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:05 - ID#26793)
Hecla news

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:08 - ID#26669)
Palladium gossip for a dull thursday.
Sorry, guys, but palladium fascinates me. I would even like to see a movie about Goldfinger's younger brother Palladiumfinger.

SWC is 26 7/16 down 7/16 on volume of about 1/4 million shares.

Here are the gossip links, actually look like press releases to me:

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:08 - ID#288295)
Spock @ Pd depletion

WHOA! - what a tidbit in your post about palladium - depletion at Norilsk !! That would be a an unbelievable shock to the Pd/Pt markets. Hope it's Pt/Pd producing babies in Canada and Montana gonna love that kinda news... ( ;^ )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:10 - ID#26669)
Oops, Spock and others
Looks like I'm repeating old gossip.

John Disney__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:17 - ID#24135)
You keep bouncing back Gunga
thats why Kipling liked you so much

Ill mention Anglos .. the BEST resource company
in the world by light years. hows that.

Some astute devil say he felt they were trying to
knock the rangy price down.. I got that too.
with the tax loss carry forwards in the company ..
I dont think they will break it up...

Suppose they come along and say

" Ill give you so many shares of durban deep for
yo little shares of rangold and these NEW shiny
durban deep that I have just printed heah will
Include your piddley little money losin rangold
PLUS all my really good stuff that just happens to
look a little rusty because Im a little short on
cash. And I think you will agree to that because
I control both these heah now companies anyway. "

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:17 - ID#317193)
Go Gold
I leave you people in charge of gold for a few lousy hours and what do you do, you let it drop over $3. Oh, well, what the heck. The golf game was not as bad as what happened in the last forty minutes of the market. I love a manipulated market.

I have not been stopped out on my contracts yet. I dont think Ill leave you folks with the market by yourselves anymore. Im staying put for a while.

Take heart folk, it could be worse. Gold could have dropped $10 in less than an hour. Time tells all. Place your stops and enjoy your bets. Thats what life is all about. Dont risk what you can not lose. Yet, playing the game is what life is all about.

Me, sorry but I do see opportunity. Dec. Contracts are cheap. Got to go for the brass ring. Yes, it is a good day to be alive.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:19 - ID#210114)
Bull No More??
We have all patiently awaited the arrival of the gold bull. Has it stuck its head into the market and been frightened off??

The market's reaction to the statement of the Bank of Portugal Governor was disheartening in the sense that in bull market's, negative news tends to have little effect. But a $4.00 drop just for saying gold will be 10 - 20% of ECB reserves does not auger well for the bull IMVHO.

I thought that 15% was the expected figure?? Why the big deal about his statement then?

It appears the decision has been delayed til June. I await with baited breath............

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:20 - ID#218220)
Hecla earnings
Hello everyone, this is my first post to kitco. Hecla mining is the way I have been playing the precious metals. I have been reading the kitco postings for about a month and have found them very interesting.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:26 - ID#224363)
Portugal and their gold...
Spock posted this snip...

"In industry news Thursday, the Bank of Portugal's governor, Antonio de Sousa, said he thought gold should form between 10 and 20 percent of the reserves of the future European Central Bank."

I'm reading this as positive given that Portugal doesn't exactly strike me as a 'gold-loving' nation. If Portugal wants 10-20, what do Germany, France, and Italy want ( %20-%30 ?? %25-%35 ?? ) .

I've read that some in the media believe that anything less than 30% is bearish for gold. Personally, I think they are crazy. Anything greater than 20% is bullish for gold.

If I were floating a currency, I think I would be careful not to use too many $US in my reserve since I have zero control over the ongoing value of those dollars. Some might argue that I also would have no control over the value of my gold but Gold has traded for thousands of years. The $US for a few decades only. Which one really has staying power ??

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:29 - ID#434158)
John Disney @Have a drink on me!
John, when you talk like that, you make me feel like homefolks! ( Kentucky ) Good point re Rangold and company. And I do like what little I know about AngloAmerican. But I seem to recall something about a reluctance to send info to the US. Do you know how I can get annual reports from them?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:32 - ID#45173)
@sharefin: re Europe slow on Y2K
It was explained to me by a financial services customer of mine in NYC that has its offices in NYC and London that the priority is changes to IT systems for the Euro first and Y2K second. Why? If you can't do transactions in Euros you are out of the game. But Y2K bugs are "hypothetical." They come later after the "proven" requirement for Euro support is completed. Also, European management of software development is completely different than in the US. It is very hierarchical and inefficient. The contributions of individuals is compartmentalized and no one is rewarded for initiative. They are far less productive and move very slowly. I know this because I've managed software projects here and in Europe.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:34 - ID#57232)
The Gold War, Part II (part I 1975-1980)
All: OK - So which of you sold your gold? Fess up! Farfel -- have you been playing us along?

Seriously, I hope it is just the news from the Portugal CB that the EURO will be backed by 15-20% gold and not 30% gold. I think Delphi was pretty sure it was 15% only ( internal and external reserves, Delphi? ) .

I think these rumors will fly back and forth depending on whether the rumor monger is pro ( BIS ) - or anti-gold. The rumor mongers have a real advantage, as they do not need to say whether they are talking about external or internal reserves, or both. Sort of like asking someone if he is a Democrat or a Rupublican, and he answers 'yes'! I am rather heavily invested in precious metals right now, so I am not eager to test $280/oz again. Perhaps we should take out a collection and buy out the COMEX gold -- that might flush out the culprits.

Another somewhat more worrisome thought -- could the shorts be trying one more time to push gold down?

And -- the last -- most worrisome thought. What if some major country is in trouble, and we are about to repeat the Oct 97 scenario again, with a deluge of gold sales? This is what we need to be on our toes about.

Donald, anyone -- any news about a major financial collpse somewhere? I don't think so, but this last item could be a gold equity general/equity killer -- and it could mean that Sharefins 'Son of Ping' is still a major contender rather than the wimp it appears to be.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:38 - ID#210114)
I agree. Anything above 20% is bullish for gold. The logic of the situation is that Germany, France and Italy have a lot at stake with gold and the gold price. Thus one would expect a higher % of reserves especially when you consider, ( as you say ) that a new currency requires confidence from the public. Gold can give it that confidence.

However, there doesn't seem to be a lot of logic about in the gold market. Supply deficits from newly mined gold are 1000 tonnes yet POG goes down. It is not logical for producers to sell forward and CBs to loan and sell. All of this drives the POG down and yet they still keep doing it.

Decision has been postponed till May. As I say, I await with baited breath.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:40 - ID#288295)
GungaDin @ Anglo link

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:41 - ID#210114)
Korea in trouble again??
In terms of a new financial upheaval see

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:41 - ID#288295)

I found the link to Anglo ( along with other SA companies ) at

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:42 - ID#347447)
puff, puff, puff
Just finished scrolling on in, and boy is my mouse finger tired! ( Drum roll )

The REAL news has obviously been overlooked by all the incredible ( or is it inedible? ) minds and intellects here at kitco. Today's front page of the Wall Street Journal had this little note:
"BRIEFS: A Neiman Marcus postcard promoting a sale also reminds customers that the retailer can "store your fur or precious-fiber coat."..."

Precious-fiber coat!!??? Is this the ultimate confluence of the gold ounce/man's suit theory of relativity?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:44 - ID#210114)
223 and New Bond Movie
Does that mean the girl will be called 'Palladium Galore'?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:45 - ID#347447)
more puff
The very same WSJ newsnote was followed by this: "The Chicago Board Options Exchange celebrated its 25th anniversary last week with a retro-dress-up contest won by clerk Tony Paink who raided his father's closet for the outfit."

Tony, Tony, bo-Boni, Banana fana fo-foney...Tony!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:46 - ID#224363)
Some considerations
I don't think that that Mr. Portugal's announcement was the bullet in gold' heart today. I think it was a number of non-events and one real event.

Non-Event #1 - Portugal wants 10%-20%

Non-Event #2 - Nothing positive for gold occured ( no inflation figures, no war, nothing... )

Event #1 - The DOW surged back up

Tomorrow brings another day.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:46 - ID#317193)
Do as you wish but tomorrow I
am buying hand over fist. Please sell, it will just make prices that much lower. Thank you for your assistance. Tom

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:47 - ID#347447)
Appreciating more and more

your sense of humor.

My heartfelt best to you and your family away from home. Get back soon! Also love your prediction on silver. From your keyboard to God's modem port...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:47 - ID#57232)
Bunker Busters
sharefin: Any idea how reliable that site is? Their news is often quite different from what we find on the net -- but that does not make it wrong. A clue would be a rise in energy/energy service stocks, or defense stocks. We may have the former, but I doubt the latter -- so far anyway. Gold should go up too.

It does make sense for BC to try something like this -- wait for some unresolved issue -- Russia just had one of their proposals rejected by Saddam H. BC will need something like this to get the public off the news about the XXXgate investigation, which is slowly heating up -- 75 pictures of BC and Monica together, Webster Hubbell indicted ( I think ) . $700,000 given to him to do nothing?. Wonder where the hush money went?

I had a wild idea -- what if AG knows that BC is headed for a confrontation with Iraq -- bunker busters and all. Wouldn't you push gold down as hard as you could, to see if it will stick at a lower price? Then when the xxxx hits the fan, it might not go back up quite as much.

Gold the political ( football ) metal. Won't be long before gold heads back up to the range FV predicts, right?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:50 - ID#210114)
Perhaps, but the fact that the market reatced so badly to a non event is what's worrying me.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:53 - ID#284255)
JTF - Swing chart showing a buy?

Dow/Gold ratio

The swing chart, which is good at picking bottoms
Confirms your buy on the SP500

But moves like Europe had today are not sustainable:
Turkey +5.31%
Greece +4.37%
France +3.94%
Italy +3.64%
Finland +3.55%
Spain +3.22%
Switzerland +2.20%
Belgium +2.11%

Fear, Folly & Frenzy

Those glutinous dippies are at it again.

Richard Burke
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:54 - ID#411318)
Who Sold Gold!
JTF: Just got back from three weeks holiday and fortunately I sold my gold stocks yesterday as the XAU hit its peak. My decision was based on Deaner's technical analysis. It got up a bit higher than he expected - at that point I chickened out and my timing was as good as it will ever be - maybe never again. I plan to be back in at maybe 80-82.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:54 - ID#290118)
netscape erratics
I've been having problems with getting the pages for this group and the prices page to display. They load fine with the usual % of Kbytes and "read done" in the lower left corner. But all I get is a blank page until I tap the stop button to display the results.

Doesn't seem to be a problem on K2 or other websites or newsgroups.

I just upgraded to Communicator 4.0.5 after posting this behavior on the Netscape site. It is still with me. Anybody else having similar problems?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:55 - ID#288295)

But don't the Euro CB's have the same problem in selling their dollar reserves, that they did with selling gold? The more they sell dollars, the more they devalue those that they continue to hold. It would seem prudent for them to balance their dollar reserves with some fraction of gold, so that when the dollar reserves go down in value, the gold compensates by going up. The very big question is how much is necessary for this task, and how they perceive the market dynamics, both for the dollar and gold - Selling too many dollars and keeping too much gold would obviously provide a result we would enjoy, but could cause a self-reinforcing crash down of dollars and up of gold. Selling too few dollars and keeping too little gold will keep the Euro a weak currency, dependant on the almighty USD - another unfavorable outcome. We shall see soon, and hope for the best ( for us ) ...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:55 - ID#218253)
Hecla chart pattern
The chart on hecla has been extremly bullish since the W.B.Feb. moonshot. The move up to 6 3/4 was corrected in three waves right to a .618 retracement at 5 1/4,also making a double bottom at that price. It's low of 4 3/8 was a double bottom.While correcting it formed a symetrical triangle. This latest move from 5 1/4 to 7 1/8 has retraced 50% to todays low. If it goes to a .618 it should stop at 6. If you find a pattern as positive as this one i think it bodes well for PM stocks as a whole.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:56 - ID#344259)
RJ re Goose & chas
What I'm trying to do is get several years historical data on the COT-Commitment of Traders from cftc. I got about a week ago back thru 96, but it included all futures. I just wanted gold. If you have this, I would appreciate. Many thanx, Charlie

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:56 - ID#284255)
Wrong url
Dow/Gold ratio

Richard Burke
(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:58 - ID#411318)
Cherokee: If you are around - how do you seee silver moving over next few months? I am still hanging on to FSR and SSO and wish I wasn't - I sure missed the sell timing on those, and just let them drift down.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 20:59 - ID#341189)
Donald - Overpricing of the xau
The chart I posted takes a little getting used to because the x axis is an odering of a data series rather than a more familiar time series or an interval or ratio quantity. The x axis is all the values of the XAU ( weekly ) for the last 14 years laid out in order from lowest on the left to highest on the right. Plotted, for each XAU ordered point, is all the values that gold has ever been priced when the XAU was at that particular level as well as all the XAU/AU ratios that obtained for each particular XAU level together with a least squares trend line to show the central tendency for gold and the XAU/AU ratio across the range of XAU's. Thus for example,we see by inspection that gold has traded at just about every price in its range for every value of the XAU above 90 or so. This obsevation is confirming of other work I've done which shows the correlation between the XAU and gold price over the last 14 years is quite poor. ( Slighty above .5 and decreases with time lags meaning that the price level of gold has only accounted for about 25% of the variance in the price level of gold stocks over this time. )

But now, notice the XAU/AU ratio and its "average" uptrend with the uptrend of the XAU. What is the meaning of this? I take it to mean that the XAU/AU ratio wants to be higher with higher XAU's and conversly lower down where we are now. This past week, the xau has been in the 200-250 rank area ( on the x axis ) . Look there and notice above this area that the XAU/AU ratio at these levels of the XAU stays roughly between .19 and .28. I take this to mean that the XAU is overpriced here.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:01 - ID#57232)
Korea on the brink? China devaluation?
Jin: Are you lurking? Can you tell us about South Korea or China? Any reason we might have another gold fire - sale - torrent like October 97? I hope I don't repeat the same mistake I made then -- heavily invested on PM's while watchin gold go down. Anyone big selling gold? Perhaps South Korea has no gold left to sell. China seems very unlikely, as does Japan. How about Hong Kong? Hedge funds at it again?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:07 - ID#190411)

"Under order of POTUS, the Treasury Department was ordered to squash the goldbugs of KITCO. The aforementioned KITCO is a criminal organization based in Canada.
Like other criminal organizations the cadre communicates anti-government plots over the internet, which, is not safe for our kids. There is also a threat of drugs with this group of antisocials. This morning, we have intercepted their nefarious plan of moving one of their high-level operatives from Cape Breton to a staging point somewhere in Maine. ( For the press, this is a state of the United States. )
There lies with this "society", a far greater threat to the wellbeing of both the US government, and the life savings of all you Americans.
Our National Security Agency, testing our new $36 Billion state-of-the-art counterintelligence hardware, has unearthed a plot to change The New World Order,-which has brought you the prosperity that you now enjoy.
This auroinsect cabal has already commenced assembling a revolutionary government.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is on personhunt for a dark-haired man who wears a pointed hat with glow-in-the-dark stars and crescent moons on it. Other descriptions will follow."
Mr. Rubin, the treasury secretary, said "There is no room for monetary terrorism, that this group advocates. We have continued the offensive by this action today, but, the Treasury must be ever vigilant to thwart the destructive activities of this menacing force of evil." He added,"Get your own damned New World Order."

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:07 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

Although today was a last day of the month, and normally I don't attach much significance to the action on those 12 days per year, this one looks to have special significance.

In gold, this is the fourth week in a row that it has begun strong and finished weak. The momentum peak occurred on April 6. A nominal new high was made on April 24. Since then it's been clearly down for gold with apparently further downside action to go.
Today gold broke slightly below its 200-day MA at 307.21. The 100-day MA sits at 298.60. That would be a good place to watch for gold to stop.. The stochastics on the weekly chart are in overbought territory and have now turned down. A 50% retracement of the last upmove would take gold to 302. Somewhere around that level, I'll look for a turnaround.

The XAU remains about 2.5 points above its 200--day MA. It has not broken through it like gold has. But the stochastics on the weekly chart remain above 80. They haven't rolled over yet, but I'm looking for that to happen. The 100-day MA sits at 77.37. We should see a test of that level.

ABX remains not only above both its MAs, but also above the downtrend line from Dec 96. Its stochastics are also very high and are rolling over to the downside. The price is currently 22.44. The 200-day MA sits at 20.57. If ABX shareholders are lucky, that's as far as the price will go. If unlucky, then the 100-day MA is looming around 20.

Palladium is overbought and beginning a correction. Currently just above 300. it could fall to near its 100-day MA at 242. But that line is rising and climbs steeply every week. Still, Palladium could see the 250s again.

Platinum is down over 9 dollars this week. Today the price stopped at its 200-day MA. The 100-day MA is 12 dollars lower and rising ( 388.75 ) . We should see a test of this level.
The stochastics on the weekly chart have rolled over to the downside and have made some headway already down the chart. They are still over 60 though and platinum has further to fall.

Stillwater Mining is not finished falling yet. There is a gap on its daily chart from 24.25 to 24.00. I look for that to be tested. ( The current price is 26.44 )

The U.S. dollar index has been probing both of its major MAs the past three weeks. So far, the 200-day has held. The stochastics on the weekly chart are just slightly over mid-range. So some excess has been worked off by this correction.
Will the dollar index soon break below its MAs? It has not bounced off them like what normally happens when it's just a retest. We'll watch this closely.

Crude oil has filled much of the huge gap on its daily chart placed in it when the Arabs made their "oil-cutback" announcement last month. So far crude has not been able to get above its 100-day MA, let alone its 200-day. Both are still falling but I look for crude to make another bid to the upside soon.

In the Dow 30, the stochastics on the weekly chart are rolling over to the downside from a very, very overbought level. Today's close was 9063. The 100-day MA sits around 8400 and the 200-day sits around 8100. It is in a similar situation to palladium. It should at least make some move back to its MAs so as to not get too far ahead of itself.
Today's action might not be so bullish for the Dow. Technically, it needs a correction of a few hundred points. The fact it can't get it shows a mania and frenzy of buying that will probably be short-lived.
Here's an interesting fact. The Dow has not seen a weekly close below its 200-day MA since Nov 1994. Even last year's Asian crisis didn't do it. Someday it will close below. Many will be upset when it does.

This week, the yield on the 30-yr. bond touched its 200-day MA for the first time since July 97. It has quickly fallen off. That's not too unusual. I think the bonds and the Dow are both placing bull traps here. We may see some more downside for the yields, but I think there will be another attempt to take out the 200-day MA.

We'll see how everything plays out.

The Preacher

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:08 - ID#409286)
It was not that long ago where Euro would be backed by 5%
It was not that long ago ( January ) where the Euro would be backed by only 5% Gold. I remember the banker from Italy saying he thought that gold backing was under estimated ( at that time anything above 5% was bullish for gold. ) .

NOW, THE WHOLE STORY GETS TURNED AROUND!!!! Much like what is happing to the stock market ( except the reverse ) , They lower estimates until companies can't help to beat them and then everyone goes nuts!

NOW, the same chat room I received information on 5% backing for gold is bullish, is now saying anything below 20% is bearish. The media is turning the story around and we are getting sucked in.

Someone here said, "I don't care I'm buying more".

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:08 - ID#409286)
It was not that long ago where Euro would be backed by 5%
It was not that long ago ( January ) where the Euro would be backed by only 5% Gold. I remember the banker from Italy saying he thought that gold backing was under estimated ( at that time anything above 5% was bullish for gold. ) .

NOW, THE WHOLE STORY GETS TURNED AROUND!!!! Much like what is happing to the stock market ( except the reverse ) , They lower estimates until companies can't help to beat them and then everyone goes nuts!

NOW, the same chat room I received information on 5% backing for gold is bullish, is now saying anything below 20% is bearish. The media is turning the story around and we are getting sucked in.

Someone here said, "I don't care I'm buying more".

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:10 - ID#57232)
Thanks for your Swing chart update -- 20:53
sharefin: I agree that your 'Son of Ping' or 'Ping Part II' may not be over. The Worden Brothers are still bearish, despite the current rally ( they are not that reliable on intermediate trends, however. Perhaps we will rally for a time while the computer stocks let off some steam during their current hot phase.

What worries me more than anything else is why gold went down. Hidden weakness somewhere? Or just a shift back to the equity markets?

Anything from the Oldman about gold or the markets? I made a nice paper profit on the sp-500 calls so far, but that could vanish in an instant if really bad news pops up while 'Ping II' is still fresh.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:10 - ID#434194)
MAN - Toronto

MAN is finalizing a deal that many of its followers have been waiting for ,for nearly 2 years. If the deal goes through ( 95% odds it will ) - the price of the stock will rise considerably from where it is ... see the details at their web site and the thread on SI. Do not wait too long - the news is likely to come within the next 6 weeks or so.

Good Luck ..... BTW this is mostly a base metal situation .. so gold will not have much of an effect on it.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:10 - ID#344259)
Silverbaron re yours to Spock
Excellent concept and observation. With a little refining, I believe we could narrow down on ECB and ECU. Have to think a little.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:13 - ID#31868)
goldhound - thanks - ah, more of that,
yes the stock would rise a great deal...let us see what we shall see...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:17 - ID#341189)
Donald - One more word
I was a little cryptic at the end of my 20:59 post. I should have said that because the XAU/AU ratio has been in the .28 - .3 range recently, at these XAU levels the XAU is overpriced.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:19 - ID#224363)
Has anyone thought that maybe Germany wants to give the EMU its own gold because it really doesn't have any use for it. And the formation of the EMU and pretense of strong currency is the cover it will hide behind.

Don't yell...Its just a thought

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:19 - ID#57232)
I like your reasoning -- Signing off!
preacher: Excellent choice of 200 day moving averages to follow! I am impressed. I too feel uncertain about our current equities rally recovery, but with computer stocks so strong right now, it will take alot to knock it down -- for a time anyway -- unless we have some really bad news while we are still vulnerable from 'Ping II' Hope sharefin doesn't mind my choice of words.

So would you sell some of your gold equities if 50% of your cash was in them, so that you could buy more a month or so from now? Or -- would you just hang in there?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:23 - ID#384350)
The Spin
Looks like the Spin Doctors are trying to make it appear that it was the Portuguese comments that made Gold drop sharply. They are trying to sow the seeds that the market will be disappointed with a 10-20% Gold-backing.

I tend to agree that it was a manipulation of the market to below the 200 day MA to trigger stops, while trading is thin cause the precedent erect is on TV.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:23 - ID#39971)
You will live longer and be more prosperous,

When you know the claims are perposperous.

The Portugeese sold down their gold,

It is their wish of the 10% hold.

They starTED with Zero for backing the EURO,

It went to five,so we stayed alive.

Italy said over thirty,all thought that nerdy

I say twenty -five,and gold will revive.

The New York Manipulators ( good name for a team ) are doing exactly

as expecTED.F* called it here some time ago.The price was pushed

down via external market forces that we can do nothing about till the

Euro is launched and levels the playing field a little.If there is

no announcement this weekend we could see gold drift around these

levels for a time.When gold is finally priced in EUROs AND USD,

the battle will have been fought and won.The US is scared sh*tless

about the EURO and it's propaganda machine is doing the Full Monty

to discredit gold these days,since it would be unwise to outright

discredit the EURO at this time.They save that for later.I love it.

Follow the BIG money.The EURO.Hope there isn't to much dead air on this

post for those with biting ears and bad manners.

Richard Burke
(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:31 - ID#411318)
Preacher: thanks for the commentary. As noted to JTF, I sold my gold stocks yesterday in anticipation of a significant drop in both gold and the XAU. How do you see silver right now? I see some support around 6.04, but then it seems it could drop down to 5.80 again as in March.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:31 - ID#31868)
I think gold and silver
are going to snap all your necks one of these days when you least expect it. Zoom...I figure a twenty dollar up move in gold and 70 cents in silver will have all of you looking for the O masks...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:32 - ID#57232)
Hubbell was indicted! Also according to Drudge,
the Hubbell prison tapes were released. Heating up. Either K Starrr has something or he doesn't.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:36 - ID#288295)

I'm not close enough to the German mindset ( especially that of Central Bankers ) to give any insight to your question...perhaps Fred@Vienna or someone closer to Germany could help. I do know that there is still a residual fear of the hyperinflation which Germany once underwent, and this must have some impact on their feelings toward gold as a reserve. However, I have seen some mention that as a result of the gold transfer, Germany would receive a windfall of sorts in the revaluation of all this gold. To say they have no use for their gold is a little strong - perhaps more correct to say they have found a better use for it. This whole EMU thing is fraught with potential for the law of unintended consequences to surface and really surprise somebody big time. Just hope it isn't us.... ( ;^ )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:37 - ID#434194)
tolernat1 - MAN
I am sure that CC would likely provide you with more details - I suspect that MAN is one of his favourite stocks ... in fact - I _know it is.

Was not trying to be promotional - I understand your skitterish posture - but the reality is - if this deal goes through, this stock will jump a minimum of 2-3 bucks CDN very quickly. On the other hand, the down side is about 2 bucks. There is very good reason for my comments - and if you visit the MAN web site and read about Tambo Grande - you will understand.

IMHO this is one of the best risk-reward situations on the market at the moment - bar none.

Best to all.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:44 - ID#431263)
LIHRY----35 3/8 +1 1/8 ( +3.28% )

DROOY---- 3 11/32 -9/32 ( -7.76% )

DIFFERENCE--- ( 11.04% ) Any questions, class?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:45 - ID#31868)
goldhound - yes, CC holds MAN
I have been following, but did not realize the posture of the situation had changed. Most likely, even now it is a decent buy, IF, the deal goes through.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:45 - ID#344259)
Silverbaron re thinkaboutit
I meant to add--you and Bill come up and we'll go to the creek and clear our heads

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:48 - ID#31868)
Golden Cheesehead
One of these days you are going to have to take a bite out of the other foot. Time will tell of course.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 21:52 - ID#224363)
Very well said...

I choose strong words to see the type of reaction they generated. I don't personally believe that the Germans are trying a shell-game but it does make for an interesting scenario.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:01 - ID#431263)
Today's plunge to $307.40 removes the need to retrace back to $297! All we need now is a retracement back to $305 to clean up the selling and its back to the NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD!! STAY FOCUSED ON THE CHARTS--THE TREND IS DEFINITELY UP IN ALL WORLD CURRENCIES!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:06 - ID#286249)
The Golden Yen

( 4 ) The attributes a key/reserve currency must have are those of a sound bank: safety--the countrys institutions must be stable and protected by military power; liquidity, the country has to protect the value of its currency both at home and abroad; yield, which is taken care of by the supply of, and the demand for, the currency.

The Monetary Alliance of China, the Middle-East and Japan, bolstered by Russian bear, provides an economic hegemony which more than satisfies the key currency/reserve currency requirements.

The yuan will be revalued--one wonders if leaks of the revaluation prompt the constant devaluation talk; further, it will NOT be revalued against the dollar , rather revalued against the yen to bring the two currencies to something approaching parity.

Adjustments will no doubt be necessary for the satellite-currencies, and they will be merged into the Golden Yen basket of currencies defined by the links to Gold Franc. This is not a grand, mad scheme; all currencies have a value in gold, but gold priced in dollars. For the Golden Yen gold WILL NOT BE PRICED IN DOLLARS.

US markets may continue the pretense, and the average American citizens may NEVER see the reality of it unless they travel to the Orient or Europe, and are obliged to pick up their own tabs. Nonetheless, the high probability is that the GY will not be backed by gold, but LINKED to gold; further, it is probable that the link will be to the BIS Gold Franc . It is a modest beginning that allows the fledgings flexibility allied with stability.

( 5 ) It is perhaps too difficult a truth to swallow in one fell swoop: those who yearn for honest money have more in common with the People of the Ribat and the Peoples Republic of China than they do with the people paralyzed by paper in Washington , D.C.

Perhaps it is necessary to actually read the reams of documents and speeches of the current crop of Chinese leaders to appreciate their animating motivation. They are at the point in the cycle where they are building, creating, tearing-down, re-thinking, re-fashioning and the more they do, the greater their enthusiasms to do more. There is excitement, and a growing belief that THEY will be the generation that started the Chinas Renaissance. The younger leaders-of-tomorrow are being caught-up in the explosion of possibilities.

The labels are useless. Just as it is difficult, if not impossible, to discern real philosophical difference between American Democrats and Republicans, so to the label of Chinese Communist is terribly flawed. The form and content of the Chinese government that is now in power is very little different from the best of their imperial past. And they have set in motion forces that will, in the years ahead, fashion from todays reality something yet different.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:09 - ID#230216)
Crystal Ball & TeddO.....uh huh(!)
I won't toot my horn anymore than necessary....but a little tootin' I cannot help. Here goes....from EBond-dude 'the lucky one', EH...


Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 03:47

EB ( 30 yr Bonds ) ID#22956:

BIG day on NY open.....this a.m. The charts do not lie......eventually. I am serious.

We will see a NICE jump for the remaining part of the week and possibly ( probably )

into next.




EB ( whoops ) ID#22956:



( so I was tired ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


You like apples????? Well, how do you like deeez apples....... go to 30yr bonds...daily.


I made a heap-o-dough today and am not through yet. uhuh. Anyone want to learn a cool secret? has to do with the bohl charts.... 'tis like stealing candy from the yunguns....... I am switching to a new ISP so I will have a different email starting tomorrow or is up to these boneheads who run my current ISP ( might not go through ) .....I will post new address when I get it and we can chat about OUR little secret........tis pretty cool and fun too. all disclaimers apply ( grin ) . Work mail is


golly jee I just love a good bounce.....boing!! watch for the new plat entry point.......

EBond-not James...but shaken...ohmy!

go 306ish......ANOTHER horn toot eh Donald? ( Sunday post ) I know....everyone else said 306ish too.......oh well, there is a HUGE gap there.....kinda like a BIG booooger hanging out of one-ANOTHER's nose.....pretty obvious, eh.

Auric.....good show with the Mounties.....EVERYONE should buy at least one from is the principle and it pays for the sight.....and the coin is BEAUUUUUUUTIFUL......YES? OK. UH HUH.

go's in the fridge, eggs are getting cold, butter is hard, jello is gigglin'......yes.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:10 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I have to say that I've been expecting to see 306 on the June contract of gold. However, as I alluded to a post to RJ, There is also at least half an expectation of lower numbers. Going into the Euro announcments, I CAN and DO expect a 'bit' of volatility. I do not claim to know what a low will be. However, I DO expect 'interesting' days ahead. BE forwarned. Should ANY large drop occur into/through Tuesday, Buy the SOB!!! Personally, I'm wishing for some BIG drop in the gold price! Should that happen, That'll be IT! But whatever it is, The time IS AT/NEAR at hand, so don't be shy in diving in. AND, BUY the PHYSICAL!!! I feel that is very important!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:10 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Sectors
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

American Gold & Precious Metals Chart
Fidelity Gold Rally Aborted???

Energy & Energy Service Chart
Energy Service makes new High!

Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
Computers Makes new High!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:12 - ID#330175)
Go Nics ( up by 5,EH ) --make that EIGHT!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:18 - ID#230216)
going home now......EH...
To watch the games.......GO NIX! GO LAKERS! GO FOSTERS! yum-yum.....
pero claro que si.....go gold.
away....from this grind

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:21 - ID#284255)
European Indices

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:27 - ID#173274)
@the scene
PMF -- THERE is no sense of no use for gold. It has been and will at least conytinue to be the the means of international exchange. So don't play that kind of BS. Now, that KIND of makes one wonder, after this countries deficits, what THAT means for our actual gold holdings after multi years of hundred ( s ) + billion dolar trade deficits!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:29 - ID#256250)
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 19:05
RJ ( ..... A Goose & Chas ..... ) ID#410215:

Perhaps I have this info at the office, or could get easily. You are looking for historical COMEX stocks of gold, Yes?


RJ that woiuld be very kind of you. comex historic data.
For a quick first pass could you give us the regiuster, eligibleand totals for every 6 months going back say 5 years. That is jsut 10 points but that would be a nice start.

Thanks in advance.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:32 - ID#194311)
and where's Bart when you need him?
Tropical cyclone Bart heads for French Polynesia
PAPEETE, April 30 ( AFP ) - Tropical cyclone "Bart" was Thursday
headed for the Tuamotu archipelago 130 kilometres ( 80 miles )
northeast of Hao atoll, the meteorological bureau said Thursday.
Packing winds of 100-to-120 kilometres ( 60-to-75 miles ) an hour,
Bart was moving southeast at a speed of 20 kilometres ( 12 miles ) an
Military bases on Mururoa and Hao, formerly French nuclear test
facilities, had been put on the alert, with waves estimated at
three-to-four metres ( 10-to-13 feet ) .

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:35 - ID#194311)
and the winner is....
Brits pick Dutchman in EU bank row

LONDON, April 30 ( UPI ) -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair has
reportedly agreed to back the Dutch candidate over the French contender
for the key post of head of the European Central Bank.
The EU's central bank will set monetary policy for participating
countries in the single ``euro'' currency, to be launched this weekend
in Brussels.
In Britain, The Times of London and The Daily telegraph report today that Blair will back Wim Duisenberg of The Netherlands, currently head of the European Monetary Institute, to fill the crucial post.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:40 - ID#330175)
Thankx for the great site Bart!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:40 - ID#288157)
( 6 ) Europes attachment to gold will be, is, a measured response of what they must do in order to purchase a trading seat on the Eastern Exchange. The power shift is from West to East and their motto appears to be volens et potens.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:42 - ID#194311)
how much effect does kitco sentiment have on gold price...i say absolutely none...try this little experiment

-everybody rubbishes gold and precious metals for say two to three days solid ( no pikers ) and watch what happens

-as we all know it's just an experiment those who hold physical won't care for a couple of days...means they can buy some cheap physical

-short term and paper gold traders will evidence themselves by complaining bitterly meanwhile shorting the hell out anyways

Any takers? I want gold at $250 before this century is out! can keep on as usual.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:43 - ID#252432)
Y2k + AU Euro + $310 guaranteed buyback thru 12/31/99 = Every reason to buy as many Mounties as possible, no?

If AU doesn't rise significantly in anticipation of the ( perceived ) looming crash, then it's official - nothing makes sense.

Can anyone tell me why I shouldn't place another order for those little beauties?

Am I missing something here?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:43 - ID#224363)

I think I may not have made my point clear.

The Germans offer ( maybe offer is too strong a word ) gold to the EMU

2. Did they offer it to clean-up their own balance sheet all the while addressing the EMU currency strength issue ?

3. Did they offer it to the EMU to accomplish the same result as the Belgiums/Dutch without nearly the same negative result ?

There is no BS here. Simply theory.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:44 - ID#431263)
Can someone please tell me what happened to RANGY today? ( -14.58% ) Is this stock in trouble or is this a great buying opportunity? Is a $1.00 possible? Thinkin' about takin' the plunge at that level. Or should I wait for even lower prices? Any help greatly appreciated!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:45 - ID#384350)
Buffett Speaks on Monday
Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting takes place on Monday. Although Buffett doesn't like to comment on particular investments, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say.

I suppose he will be bearish on the stock market, and his comments could negatively affect the stock market Monday or Tuesday ( lest they are spun ) .

In this year's annual report released in March, he chose his words with care so as not to make the market drop like it did the year before when he said that "virtually all stocks are overvalued". He might be more candid in the annual meeting.

I'd like to know the reasoning behind buying LT US Bonds and Silver, which seem to be contrary investments. Maybe BJC and AG are trying to get WB to pick up the slack from the Japs, who are now selling US Debt.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:49 - ID#288157)
Kiwi, If it is Duisenberg...
Eveillard ( SocGen ) said Trichet was considered to be the
"gold" man. So the market may have a slash and burn on this...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:52 - ID#173274)
@the scene
PMJ -- YUP. The 'cleanups' will constitute the volatility in the whole scenario. Some might wish they had more margin.! Some might wish that they had never entered a 'bet', even though in the end they were right! 'Tidings' are at hand!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:58 - ID#247309)
Allen(USA) your 14:10
Camino - contact Burt Blumert - 1-800-348-8001 - honest people/good material. Sorry I couldn't get to you sooner today.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:58 - ID#256250)
I'll bite, it is a heck of a quote from Seymour. WOW!! Love that stuff.
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 20:08
223 ( Palladium gossip for a dull thursday. ) ID#26669:

"Seymour Schulich, chairman of Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd ( FN.TO - news ) , told analysts at a London presentation that the
company believed the Norilsk ore body was close to depletion."

(Thu Apr 30 1998 22:59 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Average Joe -- Nope. Can't think of a reason not to order some. Seems to me that the only way it can fail is if the damn mint goes under. Beyond that, we are all dead or some such, where it doesn't matter to them or the partakers. The best I can see is a 'go'. Perhaps others might also enlighten us.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:05 - ID#201238)
historic comex stocks
A. Goose - our dear friend Glenn posted monthly numbers for comex stocks about a year or so ago ( actually it was almost two years ago ) on this forum. I don't have the numbers handy right now but let me tell you that what you are looking for is there - in Spades! as the saying goes. Comex stocks were at a peak in the 1980 bull market at about 8 or 9 million ounces, I would suspect that the eligible stocks back then were very high. I distinctly recall that total open interst on comex was around 90,000 contracts with a Big day of trading being 30,000 contracts. My friend, you are seeking the real truth, keep it up!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:07 - ID#256250)

I love your dicussions on the coming golden , but where is 1 ) 2and 3 ) . I can't seem to find them.
Of course, it is my day to be lost ( :}

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:07 - ID#287193)
have a look at the link I posted April 30. 14:47---just a bad

annual report.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:12 - ID#434158)
Golden Cheesehead........Rangy
See also Cage Rattler at 15:35, John Disney at 15:58, 19:53 and 20:17. I had a few comments, too, but they were mostly inqueries.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:13 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
May Day celebrations will close most Euro and Asian markets on Friday.

This bear dropped by to confirm his view. To be sarcastic, today made makes bulls appear to be lacking in IQ. If they are now ( so suddenly ) brave again, then what was wrong with them two three days ago. In that same light after the WSJ article about inflation and the 180 in 2 - 3 days, it appears that the inmates are runnin the asylum. BBL

a breakout is a no-brainer buy and hold. A relief rally, like this, has the potential to be a one-day wonder.

a group of guys mowing lawns in the neigborhood, saw that I was working on a computer and came over to check closing stock prices. Sure sounds to me , that everybody is in. Of course it can go higher; but who is left to buy, if everyone is in?
gardners came over to see thats scary

the market is all right as long as brokers don't take food stamps and cash unemployment checks....

yes, except for this one very important detail. we had a panic with inetrnals that were high enough to be called a crash, some might say. that WAS what i was looking for. i chickened out before it came, but it DID come. now, there was a clear message in it, because *price* did not suffer much. the message - next feature -- short squeeze!

love those words...short just rolls so smooth

it is possible we melt down from here. I expected the pop, the last time we had a gap-of-pain was in 8 8 87 ands it took weeks to get back into it.

The Technological innovations dealing with Information and ease of trading investing is one of the biggest differences in why this market is moving like it is and why it won't end anytime soon. The common man never had such ease and access...This is much different then 1929 or 1989 in Japan.

I'm not so sure about this crash stuff. We got quite oversold a few weeks before the'87 EVENT then had a short-covering weak rally for a few weeks. I 'm not so sure we could be setting the same thing up here. Only a strong breath rally can save this, I feel. We never saw real good selling on MON, just no buyers. Trin was rediculously low!

When I lived in Japan very few of the common folk in Japan were invested in anything. They are just too timid, take few risks. There was a lot of wealthy people leveraging them self like crazy, and the banks were all too helpful in helping anyone who had land and want to leverage it to buy stocks. Now you can't borrow money even if you are married to the Bank manager's daughter.

--- there was NO panic on Monday. It was simply a buyers strike, just as today featured an absence of sellers until the close. In fact, one reason why Monday might just be the tip of the iceberg is that it seemed a "relief selloff". Traders were saying, "boy, we really needed this", not "ohmigod, get me outta here at any price".

Let's see how the Asian market repsond to our level of greed. Most of Europe will be closed for MAY day.

look at the three day tic, the mccleelan oscillator at the favors page, the 10:1 decline over advnaces for MOST of the day. if you didn't know about price, you would say that was a panic. because price was tame, we have a message, i think.

We have consistently lost market momentum since Aug 1997. Its a question now whether we can regain the MO or the game is over IMHO. I have never seen such horrible breath and no give-up in the Trin. Until the trin moves to a bullish #, or breath improves dramatically, I feel we are very close to big trouble.

The +1100 TICK is as extreme as it gets on the upside, and the market became overbought very fast. I'd like to see it follow through for a couple of days and get more overbought, but I tend to think we'll see a lot of bagging and filling while the economists try to figure out how GDP was 4.2 but corporate earnings were so flat.

Nobody talks about the components of the leadership, but if you look its really quite bearish. Most dow stocks show blow-off characteristics or downright downtrends. Is this healthy, and how can it continue without some type of washout?

the recent selloff was really news-driven, not fundamental. As today's numbers showed, nothing has changed fundamentally. A repeat of October would feature a repeat of Asia, which is coming soon to your favorite screening room, probably after Golden Week is over.

Golden Week is a string of 3 holidays in a 7 day period in Japan

What gets me is how much weaker can the internals get without affecting the averages. According to my data, only about 45% of nyse stks are even above their 40 day average. This is truly a non-confirmation of the first order!

--- the internals were starting to tank last week while the market was going up. By the time they actually started selling, it was really all over for this move except the shouting. Monday was as oversold as its been since 10 27. Amazing to think we only went down 4 or 5%, peak to trough.

today was actually characteristic of a bear market rally. For me to believe the uptrend is fully in gear again, I want to see it weak in the a.m. and close at its highs on the close for several days.

the reason we hardly budged is found in the low trin. XON made a new high Monday. The money continues to move to the big safe stocks which keep the averages up. This could go on for a while, but its sure gettin old.

speaking of MF's... whatever cash reserves they had was probaby used today. They've been at historic lows on cash reserves. If 401K flows are slowing now, as they should be, there may not be the fuel this thing needs to go higher much further. It'll be easier once KO and GE split. : )

--- it's one reason why corrections are sometimes over in mere hours instead of weeks or months. Technology has not changed the primordeal drives of fear and greed though. It just lets the herd react more in unison.

i agree with you about today's rally looking like a bear market rally.......and that the sell offs should come in the morning and rally to close higher in the thing that puzzles me though is that oleman, I believe, at one time many months ago pointed out the same thing......and I believe he may be one of the most bullish now, but I'm not sure because I've not read any posts by him today.......

most investors today are like a group of tourist on a dark mountain path they don't see the danger of the cliff in front of them and are laughing to much too worry. Yes, most of them will fall off the mountain, but since the noise is so loud and it is so dark and most importantly there are so many people it will take a long time before it comes to an end.....

--- I liken them more to Forest Gump. They dollar-cost average in every month, cause it's the only game in town. It's worked beautifully since 1995, so until it breaks, they ain't gonna fix it.

This is one reason I came to a screeching halt on investing my $$$$. Greenspan is in his 70's, your right about instanet and afterhours trading driving things and making it easy for the "herd" to trade. When scrolling I noticed someone said the sma for stocks was below for about 45% of the stocks. Did I misunderstand. My fear is that people are just looking at their profit statements at the end of the month and all they have experienced is the + and not the cyclical nature of the beast

---it's funny how the folks who know the least are making the most. They don't get blinded by awareness of market history. It can't be different this time if this is the only time you've ever known. : )

i just don't see what's left to fuel this it may take some'll tip over.....

A very important statement. Yes, most of these investors just have no idea of the risks or downside potential.. Even the 27 year old fund managers don't know. This bull started in 1982. The last real bear was in 1974..

You need to learn about greed and fear of losing. If no one has really lost much money over the last 17 years, they have little to worry about. They have learned about GREED.

Just look at the medium we are utilizing for this discussion. Do you really think "people" in general in the 20's had access to the charting even here? The Firestones, the Carneige's the robber barrons of the 20's were the wealth makers, the Ford's. Money was definitely not evenly spread around. It is much more eagletarian today.

someday, Investor Gump will be saying: "Easy goes as easy comes"

The Yen rate is getting near the panic point of 135... If the Nikkei slips below 15000 red light will be flashing in Tokyo.... But remember trading is very light do to long holiday. |Golden Week is almost like the Xmas, New Years week in the U.S....

That is a suppose level where the Japanese govt has drawn a line in the sand. The last time it just barely went thru and then drop from there. ,14400 is the low on the Nikkei since it's peak in 89. It has bounced at that level twice in the last few years. If it breaks the Japanese and then Europe and then the U.S. market will be in a tailspin... It could happen soon. But on the plus side it should finally get some firm and timely action but the govt.

this week must have worried ma and pa mutual! Withdrew .9 billion, first withdrawal week this year, per AMG data.

everybody gets their day in the sun under these unstable conditions....Monday the bears partied today the bulls partied.... each gets a turn to trade insanity:}

and notice how the bears thinks it's goin to the sewers and how the bull thinks it's goin to the moon

In essence it goes nowhere in an awful hurry ... no one said this was gonna be easy:}

aint it somthin that when Clinton shows up on TV, it is the very day the market has a big day. I watched the whole thing. A part of me admires that sleazeball, after all, it is hard to argue with success, but then I was reminded how he got to where he is today, by lying expertly, and stonewalling expertly. He is invincible

Clinton, Rubin and Greenspan turned out to be the real dream team, as long as these guys are running on all 8, I can't find a reason to believe something bad will happen to the market. The only tricky part is if something *really is* coming down, we'll be the last to know : )

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:14 - ID#26669)
A Goose, Spock re Palladium gossip
Mr Goose, don't you love the raw uncensored NEWS POWER the internet gives you? All this news and MAYBE the CNN talking heads might drop a few crumbs next month. Here's another search engine address if you ever run out of stories from Yahoo:

Spock, I've been trying to come up with a suitable counter to Palladium Galore and the closest I can come up with is to borrow Octopalladium from yet another unmade movie. I like Palladium Galore better. But I suspect that although her curtains are Palladium her carpet is darker. :^ )

silver plate
(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:15 - ID#234253)
Dumb idea
What if the USG announced that they were reopening the gold window to all comers at 1-2-or even 5000 per ounce. No buying just selling.

Wouldnt this end, for many years, the whole gold controversy?

Then the dollar would be 100% backed but at outrageous prices

and there would be few if any takers? Then the rest of the world governments would have lots of time to figure out what to do.

No nationalizing of mines because the US is only selling not buying and the mines would still have to sell at going world prices.

Somebody please attack this silly thought.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:17 - ID#256250)
You sometimes I am glad I am A.Goose.
Please note that "the continuing drawdown of London Metal
Exchange warehouse inventories. Statistics released early
today listed a decline of 4,450 metric tons, leaving the
total at 264,875, a steep decline from approximately
375,000 metric tons as of the end of February."

So today
"HIGH-GRADE COPPER FUTURES finished with a loss here for the day, with trade sources attributing the move largely to technical factors. The July futures settled down 80 points at 83.70 cents, after earlier trading as high as 85.30 cents."

Sounds a little bit like the paper games going on around palladium... and yes GOLD. Supplies and stocks drop and the paper players drive the prices down, you just have to love it. Someone is going to drown in their own paper contracts sooner than later.


FWN: 134220 GMT

Closing N.Y. Copper: Loss on Technicals May be
Buy Opportunity

finished with a loss here for the day, with trade sources
attributing the move largely to technical factors.
The July futures settled down 80 points at 83.70 cents,
after earlier trading as high as 85.30 cents.
Richard Padron, director of research for Concorde
Trading Group, cited an "inverted head and shoulders" on the
charts. This prompted a break of 84 cents in the July
contract to cause the market to fall for a low for the day
of 83.50 cents, he continued.
Another trade source commented that long liquidation
appeared to enter the market after three-months copper in
London was unable to challenge resistance at $1,900.
Despite today's fall, however, Padron said he
anticipates July copper will work its way higher again. He
listed a longer-term objective of somewhere between 95 cents
to $1.
"I think you should meet these pullbacks with the
possibility of a good buying opportunity," he commented.
He cited the continuing drawdown of London Metal
Exchange warehouse inventories. Statistics released early
today listed a decline of 4,450 metric tons, leaving the
total at 264,875, a steep decline from approximately
375,000 metric tons as of the end of February.
Padron also said Ascaro has reported world demand for
copper would grow 2.3% in 1998, even though production is
expected to top 1 billion pounds.
Padron and a copper dealer both listed the same
technical levels for the July futures--support at 82 cents
and resistance at 87 cents.
Three-months copper in London has fallen $14.50 to

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:17 - ID#287193)
@kiwi...wo hast Du die schlechten Gedanken her?
If the CB's and the Munk's cannot move the are not serious

..... this small KITCO bunch has power?


(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:21 - ID#173274)
@the scene
From personal experience, IF you all want to climb aboard a move same day, WATCH for the previous days' call open interest on the options to expand near exponentially. Someone ( s ) out there KNOWs what is happening, and when! And they are not apt to waste a dime getting in TOO early and not a whit TOO late! In gold, the last time I saw it was at the first trading day of '96, and then the run run up. I saw it and WAS that morning aboard! Go back and look for your self at the call volume! ALL else since then has been day trading, if not being outright being short and looking for the next real up-move.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:21 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
it's dangerous to think that the bubble can't get any bigger. Personally, we think the Federal Reserve has a real problem on its hands... and no good option for resolution. If the NAPM Index ( tomorrow ) , and the employment report ( next Friday ) are firm or stronger, then the odds of that Fed tightening could rise toward 80% this month.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:21 - ID#31868)
Simply a must read...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:22 - ID#346458)
Old Soldier - 18:22 - Buying Junk Silver
Guess I'm a little dense, but could you explain your formula of your 18:22 post in a little more simplistic way. In other words, could you give an example with say 10 each nickles, dimes, quarters & halves. ( $9.00 face ) With your formula, what would be your final offer price at what you call spot + 6 times face.


(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:24 - ID#256250)

Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 23:05
arden ( historic comex stocks ) ID#201238

Thanks Arden, you are very kind and extremely helpful.

Hello, Glenn. Glenn are you there. Would someone be so kind as to contract him for us.

thanks in advance.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:25 - ID#434158)
Gold and the Dow: Fund Mgrs and Cash:
WSJ today says fund managers are out of cash. Help, my memory's not wht it used to be: someone earlier this week was posting about how the Dow and Gold would move together for a while, that as long as they did, the real gold rally had not begun: sounds like yesterday, and several days before. The second part of that statement was that when they diverge, look out below for stocks. Divergence occured today. Yes?

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:27 - ID#256250)
Yikes, I better rest...
Date: Thu Apr 30 1998 23:17
A.Goose ( You sometimes I am glad I am A.Goose. )

I meant to be cute and say " Sometimes I am glad I am A.Goose."

Oh well. That is life as A.Goose.

Did I mention, buy gold, take delivery and hang on to it ... because something this way cometh...


(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:32 - ID#26669)
silver plate re dumb idea
I think they used to call that "monitizing the debt" back when there was discussion as to what could be done to stop the Viet Nam War debt crisis. Remember in 1973-1975 when prices bounced up? I'm sorry but I can't get any more specific 'cause Big Brother has erased the words from the dictionary. Let me see...2+2=5...

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:33 - ID#307271)
More Fool's Gold
Mel Fisher was said on ABC to be charged with selling fake gold coins from the Atocha. Apparently the Atoch Manifest listed no gold coins.The Atocha's cargo, according to her manifest, included a quarter of a million silver pieces of eight, 901 silver bars, 161 gold bars or discs, large sums from papal indulgences, and Crown money from a head tax on 1,400 slaves, but no gold coins.

GungaDin: I believe you're referring to Delphis graph posted yesterday.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:36 - ID#26669)
zeke re Atocha
I went to one of his coin sales. They had coin copies which were plainly labeled as such and a heavy gold chain, with 1.5 to 2 inch links purported to be original.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:39 - ID#434158)
Midwesterner re silver
Can I butt in? I read that post, and I think the logic was that in a given dollar face amount of 90% silver coin, there is .715 troy ounces of actual silver. For a $1000 bag, that's 715 times spot. Start the bidding at .6 times spot times face value. For $9.00 ( quarters, dimes and pre-Kennedy halves ) that's .6 x 6.22 x 9. Your adversary, of course, may insist on .715 x 6.22 x 9. Happy bargaining!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:46 - ID#307271)
223 Diving for Gold
I have no wish to denigrate Mel Fisher, but it just goes to show when you go for the gold and silver, your bound to run into SHARKS!

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:49 - ID#286230)
Au Revoir Ted
Don't forget you are covered by free socialized healthcare for 6 months after you leave Canada--including gun shot and knife wounds and --if you are skinny--anorexia.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:54 - ID#252127)

If China goes through with her contemplated new infrastructure plan, large amounts of copper, zinc and nickel will be required for its completion, add to that the proposed Japanese Public Works intiatives and the base metals seem much in much better shape than the jawboned negatives being bandied by the obiendient media.
Zinc was hit hard by Chinese dumpings and I wonder how China is fixed for the zinc metal now.
Add India and Gold, then one wonders why the BIS is opening a Hong Kong office.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:55 - ID#194311)
Paper games to continue to exactly 2000
what more could the debt mongers want, just as the bubble bobbles up, up and away they just let it go and wait for the excuse of the bimillenium to come along...

I wonder if the yanks can wipe $5 trillion debt due to computer error?

I wonder what the japs would think of that?

Party like it's 1999...sorry guys paper crash postponed until next year, this will be the bubble to end all bubbles....DOW 15,000.

US bull to look like a giant hot air balloon Aug. '99, gorging gluttonously on homesick greenbacks until the convulsive regurgitation phase.....and then hangover for overhanging baby-boomer bellies.

(Thu Apr 30 1998 23:59 - ID#373403)
"small time pollution produced by a family jeweler."

Oops, sorry for getting on my glass soapbox.