http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin1s.htm
In an effort to eliminate the barroom banter but without losing the regulars, I have a strong suggestion that I'd like to put forward. It'll require a collective effort to make it work but will allow full freedom to chat without the restriction of netiquette rules , while at the same time improving the overall quality of this site.
For those of you unfamiliar with ICQ,it's fun, often addictive and was even the subject of a letter of concern from a local high school to the parents of kids who found it far more stimulating than hanging out in the park until midnight. ICQ is not a video game but rather an internet communication tool that is way far ahead of any kind of chat room in terms of features, ease of use, and functionality.
Once installed on your computer ICQ will allow you to chat ( by keyboard ) privately with any single or group of Kitco participants while connected here or anywhere else. When you connect to the internet all others who have also installed ICQ will know that you've just arrived online ( can be disabled ) and you'll be able to check the list of all the other Kitco participants who are also concurrently connected. Then you can initiate private chats, group chats, send messages, mail, pictures whatever while still maintaining the same level of anonymity that you desire.
When you set up ICQ it asks for an email address and nickname ( handle ) as well as a bunch of other optional personal information. But at the very least you need to register these two items. For our purposes I suggest that everyone use their Kitco handle as their nickname, and if you want, use nickname@icqkitco.com as your email address. It won't function for email but will identify you as a participant or lurker of our group.
To support this effort I'm willing to allow as much bandwidth as needed to discuss ICQ on our GOLD discussion group. Feel free to post all the questions and answers necessary about setting it up and using it. . ( But you probably won't need much help, since it installs flawlessly and is really simple to use )
The ICQ homepage is at http://www.icq.com/, but if you want to go direct to the download page you want http://38.180.207.24/download/. At only 1.6 megs it's a quick download and installation is a breeze.
Please try it. By adding a new dimension of interaction it will improve both the quality and enjoyment of this site for lurkers and contributors alike. I guarantee that you'll wonder how you ever managed without it, or we'll refund your purchase price on or before Jan 1, 2000. Oh yeah, it's also free.
Clone,
Your discussion of forward sales is correct. You forgot one thing though. Producers are like Funds, CBs, speculators, and me. They are traders also. A producer may sell forward at $300, at which level the mine would be profitable. If the metal rises, they will deliver metal they have been paid a fair and profitable price for. If the price drops to say.. $280, at which point the mine may become unprofitable, they can simply buy their contracts back, take a profit and look for the next rise to do it all over. Predictability of revenue is achieved.
Many mines, who would have otherwise closed, have kept their doors open because of forward sales. These mines may be delivering gold they were paid $380 for. I would say this is a GOOD deal. The smaller and unprofitable, will be absorbed into the lager and profitable. This is the food chain.
Some would say, why don't they all agree to just stop selling? The fly in that ointment is that cartels rarely work. Somebody or other is always slipping gold, or oil, or some damn thing out the back door before the guy sitting next to him does it first and forces the price down.
Forward sales are good, are necessary, and will NEVER end in ANY commodity market. You may carve this in stone and take it down from the mount to smite the golden calf, for this commandment will never be broken. It is a basic function of economics and the only way to properly produce any commodity.
For those that suggest that a Bill Gates or some other Rich Boy show up at the COMEX and write a check for all the gold contained therein. This is not possible. It is rather like mass reaching the speed of light, the closer it approaches, the more the mass increases. It would take an infinite amount of energy push mass to the speed of light. Mass may approach the speed of light ( with unimaginable reserves of energy needed to accelerate it thus ) but never to or beyond.
Buying a commodity raises the price. Buying a lot quickly, raises the price fast and high. Trying to corner a market is a self defeating enterprise. The would be buyer would insure that the aggregate price paid for the commodity would be much higher than when the buying began.
The problem with gold is that there is just so damn much of it. Lets say that it would be possible to buy all the gold in COMEX. The price rises dramatically. Another large holder of gold ( who are legion ) steps in to take advantage of these lofty heights and sells it back down. The original buyer is now left with all the gold in COMEX and it is now worth less than he paid for it. One may never corner a market not in fundamental storage.
GOLD IS NOT SCARCE!!!!!! I could deliver 10,000 ounces of bullion coins within 72 hours of receipt of wired funds. Sorry to yell, but the proceeding sell scenario can be made from virtually any place on Earth. Gold is accumulated. There is more gold in the vaults today, that at any time in history. Gold becomes Less scarce every year. If one could put their personal feelings aside, this fact is as the sun rising. It is the way it is. No amount of wishing will change this fact.
Tis true
Yes
We all know and respect Mike Sheller, if not for all of his methods, than for his TA, Humor, and evident humanity. Since the early days of this forum, Our Starboy has added worth to this site that is incalculable. He may be the most respected member here.
For Sheller to thus take up arms and post displeasure is remarkable. I would suggest that our proven and even tempered friend may well have a point. When one who has shown us all the high road, decides to lay that cooperative face aside and speak his mind as he feels it must be spoken, and we all know his displeasure at acting thus, his words bear hearing.
Yes
They do
Nick@C: Thanks for reminding us that all is not lost with our precious metals investments. It is easy to get too close, and loose track of the intermediate-trend when short term trend is down. Our mini gold rally has gone on for months longer than any prior bear market rally in the last two years. That has made me nervous, partially because I thought this time the equity market turmoil would have been bullish for gold, but it was not.
SDRer,All: RE - 4/30 FV report, complements of IDT. Perhaps one of us should fax FV and point out that he is mixing up paper and physical gold trades. This is especially worrisome, as it is FV who claims that only 25% of the price of gold is due to derivative trading. In actuality, I suspect that the real 'spot' price of gold is not far from the stated one. All we need to do is calculate the gold selling price for any large gold transactions, as Allen ( USA ) did that eventful day not so long ago.
FV has revised his statements about when gold should rise, by stating the CB's may still be selling. Apparently Terry Smeeton of the Bank of England has stated that EURO gold selling will continue to the end of 1998, but EMU spoksmen Charles Arentschildt and Steven Yorke have stated that EMU related selling will end in May of June. Either way, this would explain gold's lackluster performance for the last few weeks. This is a relief to me, as I was worried about a collapse in SEAsia. Hopefully Europe is not scretly in trouble. Still no word about where that $1 trillion in SEAsia losses finally wound up -- rolled over into bonds of some kind as expected ( to create delayed inflation ) , or is it hanging like a black cloud over europe?
I think we should all remind ourselves that there is a 'Gold War' out there, and unexpected reversals are to be expected, unless the CB's lose control.
Missing Link -
Funny I did not hear this argument during the plethora of "GOLD IS SCARCE!!!!!!! I CANT GET ANY!!!!!" talk that has been going on here for months.
This would seem to point out that facts that support a bullish gold picture are roundly accepted and applauded in these halls.
Witness the dozens of posts bemoaning the "rarity" and "current scarcity" of gold. I did not see your argument put forth here by any. It takes only one post declaring gold is everywhere to bring your response.
Yes, balance is needed here.
Mozel wrote:
"The fact gold is privately traded for paper is a temporary, historical anomaly."
This is true.
However, a fundamental change in the view of gold for all time, would start out appearing just as you describe. The starting pictures would be indistinguishable.
They would appear this way.
Yes
Mozel also wrote:
"Gold has only one true use. As money"
Well this would seem to fly in the face of THE central argument occupying the minds of most here: Fiat Currency and its invalidity. For nowhere is gold used as money. It is simply traded for fiat currency ( ANOTHERS assertions aside ) .
It would seem that there are other types of money regarded as valuable, yes? You decry the move from gold to paper, yet a scant few years ago we all held the paper in our own hands. We now rarely even see the paper, its all numbers in space. If enough agree this is good, it will be so, and a new idea of money is born. This new birth would seem a more natural and easier transition than the original move to gold, lo those millinium ago. All that digging, melting, transporting, lifting, and storing. Seems a lot of work for something that could be accomplished by a card with a magnetic strip if enough agree that this is wise and should come to pass.
Nothing is money, but all engaged in exchange, agree is so.
Money is naught but an idea.
For those that think this is not so:
Recall a statement made on these pages with which you vehemently disagree, perhaps rabidly so, and probably written by me.
Have you ever gotten angry? Or the flip side, laughed uproariously?
These are but bits in space that assemble into symbols before your eyes. Why would these anger or levitate? Because the idea of the language is agreed upon, and these symbols represent ideas.
The Numbers in ones bank or fund account may well be agreed upon to be the new idea of wealth. Who would stop this if most want it so?
Missing Link called my argument specious.
There are many things more rare than gold, why are these not money? An accurate response to this would not be a recitation of the other uses of gold, for it violates the beginning sentence and focus of this post.
You may respond, "For 5000 years, gold has been valuable"
Have you asked yourself why?
If the collected early souls of earth had decided that silver, with every bit the other uses of gold, was the prettier, it would be now $300 per ounce, and gold would be a few bucks and found in the streets or used in gum ball machines. Cultures are rife with examples of currency. No gold is found in the mighty Kalahari, nor even many rocks. Perhaps you should go there and ask to trade your gold for water on a thirsty day.
When an argument is put forth. The next question must be asked. We are then nearer the truth. While a thought we grew up with and hold as true, offers comfort and a sense of history and continuity, like perhaps , for earlier generations, the Sun is a God.
Would it then become wise to ask, what if it is not?
Yes
'Inertia as reaction of the vacuum to accelerated motion' Physics Letters A ( in press, 1998 ) .
These articles are the best I have seen yet on the Zero Point Energy ( ZPE ) phenomenon.
First, the ZPE -- an empty space background energy source -- exists, verifed to within 5% of theoretical predictions by the study of the Casimir effect.
Secondly, this energy fluctuates, and interacts as virtual photons ( and other things ) with masses ( atomic electrons and quarks ) . If the atoms in question are stationary, or moving at a constant velocity, this interaction is perfectly balanced.
Thirdly, if an atom or group of atoms ( an object with 'mass' ) is accelerated, it will resist the acceleration, as we well know. But -- here is the wild new idea. It is not really inertia at all, but the unbalancing of the interaction of the mass with the ZPE field. What has happened is the acceleration of the mass has induced a reactive radiation in the ZPE, which acts back on the mass, resisting in propertion to the degree of acceleration.
So, according to this theory ( still a theory, but looking very good because it comes right out of relativistic Stochastic Electro Dynamics theory ) inertia is not really what we thought it was. What this says is that all of us are really 'massless' -- it is only the resistance of the ZPE background that gives the appearance of mass. The authors also explain gravity in a similar manner by stating that the gravitational attractive force between two objects is also actually electromagnetic, due to dipole-like charge fluctuations causing transient electromagnetic fields which on average cause the attractive force we call gravity. So gravitons do not exist per se. Gravity is apparently due to a virtual photon coupling of some kind.
Haisch speculates that an interstellar drive might be designed by nullifying intertial mass. He suggests that there may be a resonance effect between matter and the ZPE, so that all you would need to do is bathe your spacecraft with the right frequency ( or frequencies ) of electromagnetic radiation, and you would become massless.
Unfortunately, there is a catch to this speculation. The frequency of this radiation would be comparable to the inverse of Plank's constant -- this would be well into the X-ray region -- not too many x ray lasers out there -- and the radiation would be very dangerous. When I am more alert, I will calculate the approximate frequency. Hopefully there is a way around this problem, and non-lethal methods might be used to nullify inertial mass.
Regardless this is very exciting. Dr. Haisch works for Lockheed Martin, one of the largest Aerospace companies in the US. Some of his papers mention NASA support. It is interesting that this is now coming out for public consumption.
Before many and sundry get angry at me. I am playing Devil's Advocate here. The words I write are a glimpse into the other side of the argument.
Which will prove the future course is yet to be seen. Aurator offers the history of movements back into gold. History is on his side, and it may well prove to hold true again. But these are interesting ways to look at this, yes?
Divorced of all enamor, we may now look and the underside of the coin. Caged by our love of our yellow sister, we see only her face.
We do
Yes
Now -- all we need to do is create that radiation artificially -- and the stars are ours.
I have long suspected the Graviton was a cheap and whorish particle created to plug holes in the equations.
This would all seem to be in accord with Alfven's work , yes?
What role then for curved space?
Due to the wave/particle duality of light, what effect then?
I have always suspected I am mass-less. Others here will tell you this is so.
Please, keep up the posts. My appetite is voracious. And these less traveled late night hours do need the occasional diversion.
Thanks
CHAPTER 3 -FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
SUBCHAPTER VI -Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks:
282. Subscription to capital stock by national banking association
Every national banking association within each Federal reserve district shall be required to subscribe to the
capital stock of the Federal reserve bank for that district in a sum equal to 6 per centum of the paid-up
capital stock and surplus of such bank, one-sixth of the subscription to be payable on call of the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, one-sixth within three months and one-sixth within six months
thereafter, and the remainder of the subscription, or any part thereof, shall be subject to call when deemed
necessary by the Board, said payments to be in gold or gold certificates.
CHAPTER 3 -FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
SUBCHAPTER VI -Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks;
289. Dividends and surplus funds of reserve banks
( 1 ) Stockholder dividends
( A ) In general
After all necessary expenses of a Federal reserve bank have been paid or provided for, the
stockholders of the bank shall be entitled to receive an annual dividend of 6 percent on
paid-in capital stock.
( B ) Dividend cumulative
The entitlement to dividends under subparagraph ( A ) shall be cumulative.
( 2 ) Deposit of net earnings in surplus fund
That portion of net earnings of each Federal reserve bank which remains after dividend claims
under paragraph ( 1 ) ( A ) have been fully met shall be deposited in the surplus fund of the bank.
( 3 ) Payment to Treasury
During fiscal years 1997 and 1998, any amount in the surplus fund of any Federal reserve bank in
excess of the amount equal to 3 percent of the total paid-in capital and surplus of the member
banks of such bank shall be transferred to the Board for transfer to the Secretary of the Treasury
for deposit in the general fund of the Treasury.
CHAPTER 3 - FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
SUBCHAPTER VI - Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks;
290. Use of earnings transferred to Treasury
The net earnings derived by the United States from Federal reserve banks shall, in the discretion of the
Secretary, be used to supplement the gold reserve held against outstanding United States notes, or shall be
applied to the reduction of the outstanding bonded indebtedness of the United States under regulations to
be prescribed by the Secretary of the Treasury. Should a Federal reserve bank be dissolved or go into
liquidation, any surplus remaining, after the payment of all debts, dividend requirements as hereinbefore
provided, and the par value of the stock, shall be paid to and become the property of the United States and
shall be similarly applied.
CHAPTER 3 - FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
SUBCHAPTER IX - Powers and Duties of Federal Reserve Banks
355. Purchase and sale of obligations of National, State, and municipal governments; open
market operations; purchases and sales from or to United States; maximum aggregate amount of
obligations acquired directly from or loaned directly to United States
Every Federal Reserve bank shall have power:
( 1 ) To buy and sell, at home or abroad, bonds and notes of the United States, bonds issued under
the provisions of subsection ( c ) of section 1463 ( FOOTNOTE 1 ) of this title and having maturities
from date of purchase of not exceeding six months, and bills, notes, revenue bonds, and warrants
with a maturity from date of purchase of not exceeding six months, issued in anticipation of the
collection of taxes or in anticipation of the receipt of assured revenues by any State, county,
district, political subdivision, or municipality in the continental United States, including irrigation,
drainage and reclamation districts, and obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to principal and
interest by, a foreign government or agency thereof, such purchases to be made in accordance
with rules and regulations prescribed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Notwithstanding any other provision of this chapter, any bonds, notes, or other obligations which
are direct obligations of the United States or which are fully guaranteed by the United States as to
principal and interest may be bought and sold without regard to maturities but only in the open
market.
( FOOTNOTE 1 ) See References in Text note below.
( 2 ) To buy and sell in the open market, under the direction and regulations of the Federal Open
Market Committee, any obligation which is a direct obligation of, or fully guaranteed as to principal
and interest by, any agency of the United States.
Spock ( THE MARKETS ARE STUPID!!!!!!!!!!! ) ID#210114:
There is no rationality to the markets. There is a RUMOUR that Belgium has sold gold and the POG tanks.
The rumour wasn't true.
Trading occurs on rumour and innuendo, not facts.
Hmmmmmm -
A rumor say's that the ECB gold holding will be 30%, and the POG rises.
The rumor wasn't true
Pink Floyd said it best:
Welcome to the machine.
Uh Huh
CHAPTER 3 - FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
SUBCHAPTER XII - FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES
411. Issuance to reserve banks; nature of obligation; redemption
Federal reserve notes, to be issued at the discretion of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System for the purpose of making advances to Federal reserve banks through the Federal reserve agents
as hereinafter set forth and for no other purpose, are authorized. The said notes shall be obligations of the
United States and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks and for
all taxes, customs, and other public dues. They shall be redeemed in lawful money on demand at the
Treasury Department of the United States, in the city of Washington, District of Columbia, or at any
Federal Reserve bank.
-------------------------------------------------------------
sorry about the double spacing.
JD -
The point was not which, dollar or gold, was more valuable, but that the currency of water is more valuable than all.
Anywhere I go in the world, I take gold with me.
It does bring smiles and offers of exchange.
Yes
I take it that the USG cannot pay interest on it's debt with Federal Reserve Notes. Only with Bond issue? Is this correct?
I don't really know.
When you say Treasury note; do you mean what you refer to as greenback, or Federal Reserve note?
Well, the government doesn't issue money, the government issues bonds to the Fed Bank, then the Fed Bank issues money ( Fed Notes ) . There is no reason to do things this way other than to allow the Fed to collect interest.
How can the Fed tell the difference? It would be like telling a lame joke you made up in the morning circulate back to you in the afternoon. Or perhaps if you were Hercules, died, reincarnated, and forced to worship Hercules in the next life. The Fed doesn't want to be paid with the paper that it created, it wants government obligations.
In a situation where the budget was balanced, for the government to pay off interest in Fed Notes....I'm thinking that it would effectively retire so much US debt, would decrease the money supply and credit and contract the US economy ( burst the bubble ) ....I can't wrap my mind around it...easy way out, yes, but it's still workers day over here. Hittin' the sack.
I too saw the explosive rise in select energy, but failed to put my Fidelity funds in it -- too worried that 'Ping II' might worsen. I only bought sp-500 June calls instead. If you had 70% of your 403b ( 401k ) in Fid select energy services you must have done very well. I think what is happening is that the 'smart money' is buying energy stocks either in anticipation of a Saddam confrontation later this year, or a fall in the dollar. Both bullish for gold -- just postponed!
RJ, Mike Sheller: Glad you enjoyed the physics post. I made one little error, which I need to correct. The inverse of plank's constant is not in units of energy or frequency. The resonance phenomenon, if it exists, is probably near the annihilation frequency of the electron -- about 512 kilo electron volts in energy terms. That is in the Xray range, and highly toxic to humans. Perhaps one can use two ( or multiple ) lower freqeuncy laser beams and drive the process nonlinearly.
Mike: I always enjoy your posts, even if I do not understand them. The feeling is mutual I think. There are some analogies, I think. First, one can consider matter as little balls sitting on a vast 'membrane' of zero point energy, which links all matter in the universe together. The ZPE is probably the source of all matter in the universe -- chaos theory applies here too! So even matter itself was probably created as a critical point fluctuation when conditions of the universe were just right. So our earth is a little island of energy ( mass ) which distorts the ZPE around us -- the space around us. The radiation pressure of the ZPE may be what pushes matter together -- what we call gravity.
RJ -- I think we will find the distortion of the ZPE by matter is what makes space curved. If we can break our link with the ZPE ( the fabric of space? ) , we can probably 'hop' around to anywhere or perhaps anywhen in the Universe. Yes -- I do suspect that Hannes Alfven was on the right track. To bad it was not accepted.
There is a time for everything, as a song begins -- as we very well know -- for gold too. That time I look forward to, with both trepidation and excitement.
So -- there is something to be said for those dipsters, because a nimble dipster can even make money in a bear market - most of the time. But I am talking about dipsters who do not buy and hold. There will be one day when this 'in and out after dips' approach does not work, but that is a very rare occasion indeed. We will probably have more of these dips before the 'big one'. You can have most of your money 'parked' in short term treasuries or other conservative sources where it is safe.
I think what has lead to the rapid recovery of the markets this time is the very strong computer stock rally. The real flagships are the computer and high technology stocks -- not the DOW stocks. I think the Achilles heel of the US markets will be whether this rally can continue to buoy the rest of the markets.
Do you know if the book to bill ratio is heading up? Perhaps the computer stock rally is imaginary, too. Is there really a market anymore for all of these computers outside the US? Is Europe really in a recovery mode, and getting ready to buy more computers/etc? Just saw a Pentium II 233 with 32mb ram, 6gig hard disk, 15" monitor and 56 k modem for $899 US! Doesn't look like computer prices are rising to me.
My Worden stock database only costs $1/day for unlimited downloads, but it has no options and futures prices. Haven't dived into the more expensive Worden Windows version. Intraday data, but $2/day instead. I also use Telescan for intraday data ( options and futures included ) - but no automated downloading available. It would be nice to consolidate with a full service downloader. Hard to beat Telescan ( the net version ) as it allows you to search all stocks and options/futures all over the world. Pretty good for 1.50/day.
Now in one sense this is an obvious truism. Unless we were to load gold into space ships and send it off planet, there could hardly be *less* gold above ground today than in previous centuries. Similarly, despite desperate food shortages in some places and the perishable nature of food, the world's total food supply could hardly be *smaller* today than in previous centuries. But then again, there are a lot more people in the world today as well. So my question is this: If you took the total quantity of the world's gold supply at the present time and divided it by the number of people in the world, would the result be that we now have more gold per person or less than we had in previous centuries?
I have no idea what the answer is. Nor would I use the answer to try to predict the price of gold, especially over the short run. But the question does underscore the point that "scarcity" is a relative term, as I'm sure you would agree."
-Tom
As one of my mentors has said, the opposite of imperfect is not necessarily perfect. We must use what we have to predict the future, but we must also be constantly watching for new ideas/concepts to improve our accuracy.
It is a place like Kitco where missing key elements in the investing 'equation' are likely to be found -- even if the application is not just to the gold markets -- which I think are the toughest of all in our recently deceased gold bear. But the potential rewards are there -- especially over the next few years.
Hope you have a good day. Beautiful blue skies where I am -- think I will watch the Red tailed Hawks catch the thermals on our local mini-mountain.
Anybody can make broad sweeping statements to back up a point of view without evidence.
With regard to the Rothschilds, I think the picture is clear. They are a major force behind the BIS, and are currently at odds with the IMF and the World Bank, under the control of those who prefer the status quo of fiat currencies. The IMF and the World Bank used to be nearly totally under the control of interests in the US, according to Antony Sutton. Some sort of debt the US had with the BIS ( Rothschilds ) enabled the BIS to force the US to give up on the 'Gold War' of the 60's and 70's.
I think SDRer's posts about the BIS ( Rothschilds ) setting up a bank in Hong Kong either indicates the frustration that the BIS has with European interests ( EURO ) , or the realization that the Chinese people value gold as much as they, or both. Ominous sign for fiat western currencies regardless. As to whether the Rockefellers are at odds with the Rothschilds and side with the IMF/world bank, I don't know. They both agree on the value of wealth preservation, so if the Rockeffellers are at odds because they are heavy into 'fiat' currency dealings in their public dealings, I would guess that their private assets are just as carefully protected as those of the Rothschilds.
farfel ( @BERNATZ, RJ, KARLITO, AND ALL THE REST.... ) ID#340302:
Thanks, my friends...a million thanks.
YOU HAVE MADE MY WEEKEND!!!!!
I look forward to next week.
Thanks.
F*
I guess I don't get it, Farfel. I can understand why you might be happy that the price of gold fell. I was happy, for example, that I was able to buy WDEPY at 26 3/8 just one day after selling it at 28 1/8; I was also happy that I had previously shorted ECO, though I'm beginning to wonder whether I should have covered on Friday. What baffles me, however, is why you would thank Hepcat, RJ, Karlito, and other posters here for this drop in the price. Do you really believe that these guys have that much power over the gold market?--or that they are responsible for what happened on Friday?
-Tom
Big Time Tom -
You do have a very good point. I also do not know the answer to that one. I will think on it a bit.
Steve in Perth -
TOKYO ( AP ) - Saying he was "at the limit,'' a top executive in charge of efforts to root out corruption at Japan's scandal-plagued central bank hanged himself today, the latest suicide in a widening probe.
This behavior is to be encouraged. The world would be a prettier place indeedy if highly ranked officials, when caught red handed, to simply remove themselves from the equation.
Boardreader -
You too have a point. Where is this standard made, though? I have written on these pages before, no note is backed by anything, gold included, unless you can lay down the note and receive the gold in return. Anything else is smoke and mirrors.
Steve in TO -
Your 8:16 - Excellent post.
Mr. Mick -
While palladium has held, Platinum is the surrogate for palladium. Both will rise, platinum will stay high, while palladium will be consigned to the dustbin of history ( I know that is a quote from someone, who? ) as consumers move back into platinum because of availability. Norilsk ore is depleted. This is big news.
Mike Sheller wrote:
The supposition now is that there is some form of matter out there in the "empty" space previously thought void, and that this matter is in some way responsible for certain manifestations "out here." I rest my case.
I think you have grasped the core of the matter. Or maybe the core of the mass. Perhaps the core of the energy? Wait.. they are all the same thing..
APH -
A trader of great renown one told me that in his most profitable year ever, he was wrong on almost 80% of his trades. The trick is not to be always right, but to recognize a looser and dump it for small losses rather than go down with the ship. You know this well, so I will hold forth no further on this.
You have a keen eye, and are courageous to continually post your strategy on these pages. You're long term success is assured, as you recognize what IS.
Alain__A ( President ECB ) ID#243226:
The new president for European Central Bank is from Netherlands.
A recent gold seller, yes?
Yes.
The action you see in platinum is because even the largest funds are afraid of palladium.
Platinum is the surrogate. There are no palladium supplies. What would you do if you had to
deliver June palladium, but you could find none? Would not your only choice be to go to the
platinum market? Would this not be the only proper hedge against a palladium short? Mysterious,
nonexistent, and completely imaginary but highly placed insiders think the answers to many of
the questions are, yes?
The action I see in Platinum is that it has dropped +$20 in the last couple of weeks. So someone is shorting Pl? How is a Pl short be the proper hedge against a Pd short? Does anyone understand this arguement?
Spock 5/2 00:31 - you just figured this out?
themissinglink 5/2 01:51 - Last Wednesday I know some traders who would of liked some shares of KTEL. They ended up getting them only after a $15-$20 rise. To pay $46 for a stock that could had under $4 a week earlier is tough to swallow. ... It was a short squeeze that worked.
mozel 5/2 01:55 - I played golf 2 Sunday's ago with a farmer. He had just sold $5 milllion dollars of lettuce. He took Sunday off as a reward. We discussed the finanical part of farming for most of the afternoon. My understanding was that EVERYTHING is forward sold before it is planted today. The most desirable forward sale it to 1 level befor the end user, in the lettuce case a big local food store. A regional distribution center was the next more desirable buyer, the futures market was the last option.
RJ: 5/2 02:49 - The current trend of 'money' does seem to be going away from heavy gold. Technology has done this to many things, making them smaller, lighter, more portable. Who would expect that 'money' would be exempt from these advancements? I wouldn't.
Assuming the above, then the next question that needs to be asked is what going to be the next form of money? What will the next evolution of 'money' be? I think this is what Another is predicting. If one was to be strong believer in the Circle Theory of all things always end up back where they started, I can understand the following he has.
SDRer -
Is your post entirely serious? You know the answers to all those questions. Gold was $380 last year. A producer who sold for delivery then would now, a year later, be delivering $280 gold he was paid $380 for.
As for so damn much of it, As I said last night, one may never corner a market not in fundamental shortage. ( the post actually read, "storage" this was a function of my spell checker and my bleary eyes conspiring against me ) This means NO stockpiles to go to. If a supply remains anywhere on earth, rises in prices will have a top. Sooner or later, a holder of a commodity looks at the lofty prices and decides he wants a piece of that action. If he has the gold, he can sell it.
This is why I trade platinum so much. We have removed this threat of capping off a rally, because the metal is not in sufficient enough supply to do so.
Forward sales and hedging will continue as long as there is a market. A proper understanding of why this is good and so must be had before anybody may approach the truth of these markets.
Yes
RJ - Reading your post a few minutes ago, sounds more like you then the one from yesterday that I just posted.
Kudson -
Platinum is in ready enough supply to force the weak money out before a sustained rise. As the futures price of palladium rises limit traders, locked out of the market turn to platinum to cover losses in palladium. The percentages have been way out of whack of late. But you will see this occur. Lease rates for platinum are still relatively low, while they are prohibitive in palladium. Any shorting has occurred in platinum, that is why palladium has held but platinum has fallen. This not only points to zero weakness in the platinum markets, but these shorts must be covered. By June. Not much time, yes?
The drop in price in platinum has me giddy as a goldbug at under $300 per ozer.
I will buy all I can here, for the horizon is filled with ups.
Uh Huh
Donald-
I have all these Yen.
Got it all in storage sheds sprinkled throughout the South land, there resting quietly with the enormous stockpile of platinum I liberated from a couple of bumbling KGB operatives last summer. The stern visage of the Czar stares up at the Yen blanketing and keeping MY platinum warm till it rises and I take enormous profits.
I will then and use it all to sell gold into the dirt.
Uh Huh
1 ) South Korea is in deep trouble to the tune of about 650-700 billion US$ in addition to the external debt addressed by the IMF. ( from Korea Development institue ) . Also, auto production plummeted 46.2% ( in March alone? ) , and manufacturing is as 65% capacity. JK thinks that there is no way that SK can address a debt of this magnitude, despite rising imports from 1997. This we knew was bad.
2 ) China's debt's are now estimated at $903 billion, with 30% non-performing. Much of this is in SOES, which probably does not concern the Chinese that much, though it would upset the foreign creditors, mostly Japan, Korea, and Europe, I think. What is worrisome is that inventories rose 14.2% in the first quarter, with industrial profits dropping 83%. According to JK, sales are falling over all of China.
JK mentions Cosco, Shanghai Industrial Investments, and Guandong Enterprises as companies seriously in trouble. I do not know if these are SOES, or if they are not. If they are representative of the private corporations, things are much worse than we thought. JK predicts China will crash due to crushing debt. I am not so sure, but a significant Chinese devaluation could hit Japan a staggering blow.
3 ) The most disturbing news of all is what JK said about Japan. According to JK, the combined income stats of all the companies on the Nikkei showed a net deficit for 1997. This alone does not worry me, as we know Japan was in trouble, and possibly bottoming. The markets should preceed the earnings reports. The problem is that the WPI was down 2.1% for the second 10 days in April compared to the previous year, while the Japanese were pouring cash into the markets/economy. JK mentions a figure of $780 billion in borrowed cash that Japan needs for 1998.
So Japan is desperately inflating the Yen, selling US dollars apparently to no avail. The US is probably inflating the dollar to keep the Yen/dollar ratio constant. I think we must assume that we may be months or less away from an international crisis, and scour the web for news.
Any news about China, South Korea, or Japan? I just had a very distrubing idea -- perhaps the reason the BIS is setting up an office in Hong Kong is not what we thought! Perhaps it is because the BIS knows that a world financial crisis is near, and wants to keep avenues of communication open with one of the major financial centers of the world. I prefer SDRer's reasons better. Mine is much too disturbing.
Comments?
There goes anOTHER one
There it goes aGIAN........
And now, truly, off to the beach.....
Yes
Jin: Are you out there? Any economic news about Japan or China?
Dr. Eugene F. Mallove wrote an extensive science fact article in Analog Magazine last year on cold fusion. In his extensive bibliography he cites Cole and Puthoff in "Physical Review" and Eberlein in Physical Review Letters as sources for ZPG as the energy being tapped. One example reactive cell experiment that he cites had 1300 watts out for 1.4 watts in ( Rothwell, J. 'CETI's 1-Kilowatt Cold Fusion Device Demonstration' in "Infinite Energy" Vol 1, Nos 5&6, Nove 1995-=Feb 1996, pp 18-24 )
I can give you more citations etc. if you wish ( swyers@amigo.net )
PALLADIUM is often used as the reactive medium.
Any developments in this field should interest PM traders.
Check out the cold fusion web site at
http://www.mv.com/ipusers/zeropoint/
Thanks for the earlier posts.
To doomsayers in general:
What amazes me is the amount of dialogue going on all over the Net regarding economic collapse, Y2K, Euro-doom, etc. etc. etc. And I'm only counting the posts concerning potential threats that have real substantial basis for concern. I'm not counting meteor, comet, biblical or other prophecy associated postings ( which may also be real threats ) .
QUESTION: Are all these "substantiated" threats also figments of imaginations? Was there any comparable dialogue on such pending economic doom in the late twenties - or is this level of foresight and dialogue a new thing under the sun? Given that even a third of these threats actually come to pass - are those in a position to do something criminally negligent for sitting on their hands? Or are the doing the best but the oncoming freight is just too huge to stop.
ARE OUR GOVERNMENTS AND POPULATION ONLY ACTING LIKE DEER CAUGHT IN THE HEADLIGHTS 0F THE ONCOMING FREIGHT?
If this is so - then I'm getting the h*** out of paper and into commodities delivered into my hands. Be it canned beans, bags of rice, dried eggs, guns, ammo, and GOLD & SILVER coins -- I wan't it on my floor where I can see it and sleep with it - not in the form of gold or wheat futures. PULEESE TELL ME I'M A RAVING LUNATIC!
Immediately after WWII in a bar in NYC there sat several atomic scientists having drinks and talking about the Bomb. They're saying how easy it is to make one, how small it could be, that there could be a boat in NY harbor at that very minute with one on board. The barkeep asks these guys if they're serious. They assure him they are. He asks again since he figures they're pulling his leg. Yes they are dead serious - in the business they're in they know it is possible a boat with a Bomb on board could be in the harbor even as they speak.
The barkeep tells them about when he was in Europe before the war. He could see it coming - the stormtroopers, military buildup, etc. Since he was single he could make major decisions fast. One day he dropped everything, caught the first train and the first boat and got the h*** out of there! He didn't fret and worry and study it some more. He got out without even packing his bags - like evacuating a burning building.
The barkeep asks them yet one more time to make sure about the boat idea. Then he calls over the owner, tells him he is quitting, hangs up his apron, collects his pay and leaves for the nearest bus station. He does not stop by his apartment to pack.
In New Jersey he starts having second thoughts. Surely those guys are pulling his leg. They must be having one heck of a laugh on his account. And besides, he forgot to make arrangements to feed his cat. So at his first opportunity he finds a payphone and calls the bar. The operator can't make the connection - something is wrong with the phone lines.
About that time his attention is drawn to the east. Though it is late evening it looks like the sun is coming up. And the phone goes dead.
For RJ ..The Interrogator At Large....Uh huh.Money..its gas...
European Central Bank to hold some gold -Verplaets
BRUSSELS, Feb 13 ( Reuters ) - The European Central Bank ( ECB ) will hold ``some'' gold in its reserves
after it is set up later this year, National Bank of Belgium ( BNB ) ( BNAB.BR ) governor Alfons Verplaetse
said on Wednesday.
``I have an idea ( how much ) , but I am not going to tell you,'' Verplaetse told a news conference on the
BNB's annual report.
His comments were embargoed until Friday.
Between 1989 and 1996 Belgium sold around 730 tonnes of gold, making it one of the biggest official
sellers and contributing to fears that other European central banks may cut their holdings in the run-up to
economic and monetary union.
Verplaetse said the BNB had sold no gold in 1997, although it did lend gold, a practice he said it began
three years ago and which was now common among central banks.
The report shows the bank held at the end of 1997 around 476.5 tonnes of gold directly on its balance
sheet, a level unchanged from the end of 1996, plus a further 119.0 tonnes with ECB-precursor
European Monetary Institute.
Verplaetse also spoke more widely about the problem of foreign exchange reserves after EMU starts,
noting that if European central banks were to maintain the level of holdings they would have three times
as much reserves as they needed to cover external trade balances.
``It's excessive,'' Verplaetse said. ``During the coming months several national central banks will
undoubtedly have to consider their future external reserve requirements.''
Verplaetse said, however, there was no question of the banks simply dumping their reserves because
these always had a counterparty on the liabilities side of their balance sheet.
``The foreign exchange assets belong to the Belgian and Luxembourg economies and not to
shareholders,'' Verplaetse added, in answer to a recurrent question about whether the BNB's private
shareholders could have a claim on the assets.
1 ) per my 03:27 - 12 USC 290. USE OF EARNINGS TRANSFERRED TO TREASURY: "The net earnings derived by the United States from Federal reserve banks shall, in the discretion of the Secretary, be used to supplement the gold reserve held against outstanding United States notes, or shall be applied to the reduction of the outstanding bonded indebtedness of the United States under regulations to"etc.
a ) does the US Treasury always derive net earnings from Federal Reserve banks, or does 290 refer only to the net earnings surplus fund of the Federal Reserve banks to be transferred to the Treasury in 1997 and 1998, per 289 subparagraph 3? And why 1997/1998?
b ) if the latter; --given the accurate use of "supplement"-- is it possible that the US Treasury has been or could acquire gold in 1997 and 1998, if it has not been reducing outstanding bonded indebtedness?
Now lets speculate. Although this transfer of earningswe know not to what dollar amount might partly account for the deficit reduction in 1997; we have already established that to reduce the outstanding bonded indebtedness is to contract the money supply, something that you dont want to do unless you want to wreck the economy. So what are the chances that these earnings will be used to BUY GOLD? If this earnings transfer is as much as a billion dollars it could be meaningful for gold. BTW the Treasury has to buy gold at the going rate, I read it in the regulations.
2. The current up move in the S&P 500 is just about over. There is less than a 50% chance that the up move will continue beyond Monday. The S&P will decline in a zig-zag fashion to around 1070.
3. The June T-Bond contract will decline to the 118-00 to 118-8/32 area before recovering to about the 123 area. If you are planning on the purchase or refinance of a house, this will be a good time to do so. Interest rates will increase, before dropping again later in the year.
These guesses as to what the markets will do is for discussion purposes only. It is hoped that no one attempts to use these guesses for trading or investment purposes.
I have gone out on a limb with some rather specific predictions. The markets will prove me right or wrong very soon.
Servhard ( @ mozel...The pure speculators provide liquidity. )
and AGAIN now!
About Indians and Gold,
http://human.is-bremen.de/u/usa/AIP.html
some sections of your many posts leave me still thinking....
S.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/kutyn050198.html
For those who don't know, you must remove the 'en-' and substitue '-'.
http://www.insidechina.com/china/locnews/skorea/skorea116.html
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
after the smoke has cleared...long after the last dust
particle blows away into the wind...the golden one will
arise as the veritable phoenix...arise not only due to
historical perspective...but from the LAWS OF PHYSICS.
'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' isaac newton.
that statement deserves a lot of space.....
consider the current predicament gold
finds her-self...gold is a SHE..right??
anyway...she has been a real bitch, moaning and
groaning about the color of the swiss bankers panties...ahem..
all the while---18 years..right hep-twat?--- she had
been on her knees...forced into giving bill klintons'
to every tom, dick, and harry who passed by, whilst
the locals sold her as cheap cobble-stone. now the
cobbled is arisen...and the stone is heavy from being
called that which it has never been.....CHEAP AND WORTHLESS.
so where are we? the bitch has carried a heavy nasty stone
for 18 years and has been told she is worthless...sound familiar?
anyway...
the trampled is morphing into the trampler...the kraal defeated
and breached...it will be as a wave washing over a beach...
nothing left, except that of exceptional weight.
here's what is weighting me down.....
gold call options
crude calls
bean calls
meal calls
corn calls
wheat calls
bond puts
mpeso puts
......the arrow loosed----------THWOCK!-----the carcass eviscerated..
we'll see who eats.
cherokee!;...preparing.for.chaos.and.flux.....they's.amux.us.all...
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif