Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat May 02 1998 00:01 - ID#344308)

after the smoke has cleared...long after the last dust
particle blows away into the wind...the golden one will
arise as the veritable phoenix...arise not only due to
historical perspective...but from the LAWS OF PHYSICS.

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' isaac newton.

that statement deserves a lot of space.....
consider the current predicament gold
finds is a SHE..right??

anyway...she has been a real bitch, moaning and
groaning about the color of the swiss bankers panties...ahem..
all the while---18 years..right hep-twat?--- she had
been on her knees...forced into giving bill klintons'
to every tom, dick, and harry who passed by, whilst
the locals sold her as cheap cobble-stone. now the
cobbled is arisen...and the stone is heavy from being
called that which it has never been.....CHEAP AND WORTHLESS.

so where are we? the bitch has carried a heavy nasty stone
for 18 years and has been told she is worthless...sound familiar?

the trampled is morphing into the trampler...the kraal defeated
and will be as a wave washing over a beach...
nothing left, except that of exceptional weight.

here's what is weighting me down.....

gold call options
crude calls
bean calls
meal calls
corn calls
wheat calls
bond puts
mpeso puts

......the arrow loosed----------THWOCK!-----the carcass eviscerated..
we'll see who eats.


(Sat May 02 1998 00:02 - ID#288155)
Starr's trial goes to the jury Sunday on 60"
"Starr is going to take a hit on the piece," a CBS NEWS source tells the DRUDGE REPORT

Is it not apparent how very dated and lacking our vocabulary
has become? In addition to the non-meaning political labels,
we have the legal labels which are somehow mirror-images?

And then, from all directions--in EVERY discipline--we have
the lies, the lies, the lies, the lies...

Frankly, one can understand the BOJ Director's action ( please note--
'understand'...not endorse. Difficult to lead a 'sane' life in a mad world.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:02 - ID#284255)
EU leaders to launch EMU, tackle ECB hurdle
FOCUS-Hints of U.S. economic slowing buoy markets
FOCUS-Hopes rise for European Central Bank deal

(Sat May 02 1998 00:11 - ID#284255)
Clinton: Don't worry about bubble - what an honest man?


Equity Inflows ( AMG ) : -$0.9 billion; prev week: +$3.5 billion

(Sat May 02 1998 00:15 - ID#340459)
MicroSoft may bring the techies Down like Dominoes..atleast for a while..

(Sat May 02 1998 00:17 - ID#153102)
@Methinks Gold is Sovereign He

Why not FARTCO ?

Gold like Sampson, captive for these long years, shall one day soon in the midst of their celebrations pull the pillars of their palace down upon them and liberate the people.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:26 - ID#284255)
Dad's comment - re latest suicide
"Set a thief to catch a thief".

What had this man uncovered to force his hand?

What did he find out that pushed this position.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:29 - ID#284255)
Revenge rules
A successful businessman flew to Vegas for the weekend to gamble. He lost the shirt off his back, and had nothing left but a quarter and the second half of his round trip ticket -- If he could just get to the airport he could get himself home.
So he went out to the front of the casino where there was a cab waiting. He got in and explained his situation to the cabbie. He promised to send the driver money from home, he offered him his credit card numbers, his drivers license number, his address, etc. but to no avail.
The cabbie said "If you don't have fifteen dollars, get the hell out of my cab!" So the businessman was forced to hitch-hike to the airport and was barely in time to catch his flight.
One year later the businessman, having worked long and hard to regain his financial success, returned to Vegas and this time he won big. Feeling pretty good about himself, he went out to the front of the casino to get a cab ride back to the airport. Well, who should he see out there, at the back end of a long line of cabs but his old buddy who had refused to give him a ride when he was down on his luck.
The businessman thought for a moment about how he could make the guy pay for his lack of charity, and he hit on a plan. The businessman walked past his old friend to the front of the line and got into the first cab in the line
"How much for a ride to the airport," he asked?
"Fifteen bucks," came the reply.
"And how much for you to give me a blowjob once we get there?"
"What? Get the hell out of my cab."
The businessman got out and went to the next cab in line where he repeated his question. Again, he got the reply, "Get out!" He continued down along the long line of cabs, getting into each one and asking the same question with the same result.
When he got to his old friend at the back of the line, he got in and asked, "How much for a ride to the airport?"
The cabbie replied, "Fifteen bucks."
The businessman said, "OK", and off they went.
Then, as they drove slowly past the long line of cabs the businessman gave a big smile and thumbs-up sign to each driver.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:30 - ID#307271)
Ur you Are..
The Golden Mystery of the Day:

To Ur and back

"Come down and sit in the dust, O virgin daughter of Babylon; Sit on the ground without a throne, O daughter of the Chaldeans! For you shall no more be called Tender and delicate. Take the millstones and grind meal. Remove your veil, Take off the skirt, Uncover the thigh, Pass through the rivers.

Your nakedness shall be uncovered, Yes, your shame will be seen; I will take vengeance, And I will not arbitrate with a man."

( He transgresses; He commits offense, Ascribing this power to his god. )


(Sat May 02 1998 00:31 - ID#210114)
There is no rationality to the markets. There is a RUMOUR that Belgium has sold gold and the POG tanks.

The rumour wasn't true.

Trading occurs on rumour and innuendo, not facts.

As if gold wasn't in enough trouble.

The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.
The markets are stupid.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:33 - ID#210114)
Hong Kong Gold shows some recovery from the Belgium RUMOUR selldown.
12:00:13 Sat 2 May 1998 HKT

Hong Kong Gold
Loco London Gold
Loco London Silver

(Sat May 02 1998 00:42 - ID#210114)
Is anyone there?

(Sat May 02 1998 00:42 - ID#210114)
Gold Reserve Decision Deferred until June(?)
I thought the Yahoo News had said that ECB Reserves would be delayed until June.

We may have to suffer the 'disappointment' that Gold reserves will be 'only' 15 - 20%.

Three months ago that was bullish news.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:43 - ID#28098)
The problem with analysis...

The Economist--May 2 - 8 1998
Finance and Banking

and it is a big, black, bold headline--

Now, would you be interested in hearing some of the appalling things going on in the Chinese banking system? Sure you would...we all love horror stories.
Well, imagine this!
At the moment, the financial system still bears many socialist marks. Chinas currency, the yuan, is only partially convertible, so bank depositors cannot take their money and run for foreign currencies. [COMMENT: and neither can Goldman Sachs, tsh, tsh].

Nor do they have many alternatives for investment at home. Though Chinas domestic stockmarkets exploded in size during the mid-1990s, they are still tiny as a proportion of GDP [COMMENT: Lucky China, if their market crashes in need not bring the GDP to its knees, unlike my own country].

Fund management is in its infancy [COMMENT: theres a break, dont let it get any older], and private pension schemes do not exist [COMMENT: Brabo, schemes and pensions have never been a good mix].

There is not even much a government-bond market [COMMENT: Well, a small government-bond market sounds a sensible thing].

Now pay close attention to this Western assessment of a really bad banking system:So money just piles up in state banks, earning unimpressive rates of interest: there are no other easy ways to save.
[Comment: That may rip the guts out of Johnny Reed, but I think there
are scary things banks can do...]

more on this later--this article leads me to believe we have yet another game afoot. And from some of the data we ( Kitco board ) have on hand, it is possible that guile may have donned its running shoes...interesting that the manipulators never seem to realize that--on occasion--they might be the prey...

(Sat May 02 1998 00:43 - ID#287193)
I am not much of a BEER-drinker any more--however....
how about 10 pounds of beer for your P.
Thank you for the link--here is one for you:-- ( I know you are up till 01:00 for sure )

It will take a while to come in!
S. Good Night!
Dear oris:
1. Whosoever has some Newmont owns part of it anyway. Is not the cost of production most important or?--500t.-5000t.....who cares.
2. The link I gave..did it not read if you want to go to UZBEKISTAN go....!
3. I know you want to be funny....go ahead!

(Sat May 02 1998 00:43 - ID#255304)
@Here's a twist for F*
The Swiss did aide & abett the Germans in confiscating the Jews gold
The Swiss did sell their gold on accident under a bad gold lease
The Swiss will pay the off the Jew's suit
The Swiss will pay it off with the notes from their gold leases
The Swiss will devalue the franc so it is not the bully of europe
The Swiss will still have the strongest currency
The swiss will still have the best skiing

Gotta go

(Sat May 02 1998 00:47 - ID#284255)
FOOTNOTE: A growing number of men are losing their friends, jobs, and sometimes all touch with reality through an addiction to the Internet, an Italian psychiatrist warned Wednesday. Tonino Cantelmi, University of Rome, told a conference he has studied 24 cases of certifiable "Internet Addiction Disorder" [IAD], a condition with symptoms of spending up to 10 hours online [Only 10 hours?] and a physical fallout of uncontrollable shaking hands.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:48 - ID#57232)
Food Shortage in parts of Brazil due to El Nino drought
At least the leaders didn't say, 'Let them eat cake'.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:48 - ID#238422)
Thanks, you're right, I was just having some fun.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:49 - ID#210114)
sharefin IAD
Yes, they are all on the Kitco chat line.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:50 - ID#347235)
Just in case every body has missed it I havent seen it the BOJ persons name is Takayuki Kamoshida, 56 yr od Chief Director of the bank of japan
found hanging from a plastic cord in his apartment in Tokyo. If you knew it already bear with me if not this is off AP International @8.26.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:56 - ID#256250)
Ok here is today's data...
Eligible gold stocks CHANGED by increaseing a whoping 97 ounces ( I guess that is one bar. WOW! ) . And all this on the flase story that was released toward the end of trading and retracted after the close of trading.

Paper gold traded 5.2 million ounces up from 3 million on thurday.


Gold 52,000
Silver 11,000
H.G. Copper 9,000

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today
587,511 472,276 37,109,866
571,428 -472,276 52,605,506
1,158,939 0 89,715,372

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

496,084 97 0 97 0 496,181
162,312 0 0 0 0 162,312
658,396 97 0 97 0 658,493

I am out of here. Have a GREAT weekend.

(Sat May 02 1998 00:56 - ID#28098)
Sharefin--harefin (Clinton: Don't worry about bubble - what an honest man?)
An honest man in an honest land with honest banks and honest
businesses and honest politicians...[see post on vocab
problems...{:- ) )

(Sat May 02 1998 00:57 - ID#287193)
@..aztec...another twist?...
in 1977 I exchanged in Zurich DM for Swiss Francs and paid only DM .87 for a good Franc. The Swiss are in the same boat as good old USA.
Currency is overvalued! They have tried for the longest time to get the Franc back in line!


(Sat May 02 1998 00:59 - ID#28098)
Sorry, the brain shuts-off but the fingers don't...

(Sat May 02 1998 01:02 - ID#347235)
@ Mike Sheller
Good job on old gold, maybe a little Viagra will help, worked wonders for me!!

(Sat May 02 1998 01:04 - ID#28098)
A. Goose--A Question Please...
FV's fax was generously posted by IDT earlier. I realize
that the man is a legend in his own time, but he doesn't
seem to distinguish between the trading of paper gold sell, and
physical sale. That seems a VERY IMPORTANT distinction to me.
Can you possibly get a handle on it?

And we all appreciate all the work you are doing with Comex. Thanks!

(Sat May 02 1998 01:05 - ID#210114)
Now for the Good News
Big Rise for Viagra Gold!

(Sat May 02 1998 01:08 - ID#256250)
mistake ... heading out of here.
Paper gold traded 5.2 million ounces up from 5 million on thurday and 3 million on Wednesday.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:09 - ID#153102)
My thoughts exactly about FV.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat May 02 1998 01:10 - ID#261187)
I Seek You
One of the biggest problems in trying to make this site a useful and informative discussion group is keeping it from turning into a chat line. Someone recently posted a response to a request to have us set up an IRC server which basically made the distinction between a chat line and a discussion group.

In an effort to eliminate the barroom banter but without losing the regulars, I have a strong suggestion that I'd like to put forward. It'll require a collective effort to make it work but will allow full freedom to chat without the restriction of netiquette rules , while at the same time improving the overall quality of this site.

For those of you unfamiliar with ICQ,it's fun, often addictive and was even the subject of a letter of concern from a local high school to the parents of kids who found it far more stimulating than hanging out in the park until midnight. ICQ is not a video game but rather an internet communication tool that is way far ahead of any kind of chat room in terms of features, ease of use, and functionality.

Once installed on your computer ICQ will allow you to chat ( by keyboard ) privately with any single or group of Kitco participants while connected here or anywhere else. When you connect to the internet all others who have also installed ICQ will know that you've just arrived online ( can be disabled ) and you'll be able to check the list of all the other Kitco participants who are also concurrently connected. Then you can initiate private chats, group chats, send messages, mail, pictures whatever while still maintaining the same level of anonymity that you desire.

When you set up ICQ it asks for an email address and nickname ( handle ) as well as a bunch of other optional personal information. But at the very least you need to register these two items. For our purposes I suggest that everyone use their Kitco handle as their nickname, and if you want, use as your email address. It won't function for email but will identify you as a participant or lurker of our group.

To support this effort I'm willing to allow as much bandwidth as needed to discuss ICQ on our GOLD discussion group. Feel free to post all the questions and answers necessary about setting it up and using it. . ( But you probably won't need much help, since it installs flawlessly and is really simple to use )

The ICQ homepage is at, but if you want to go direct to the download page you want At only 1.6 megs it's a quick download and installation is a breeze.

Please try it. By adding a new dimension of interaction it will improve both the quality and enjoyment of this site for lurkers and contributors alike. I guarantee that you'll wonder how you ever managed without it, or we'll refund your purchase price on or before Jan 1, 2000. Oh yeah, it's also free.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:14 - ID#256250)
Date: Sat May 02 1998 01:04
SDRer__A ( A. Goose--A Question Please... ) ID#28098:

I will try.


(Sat May 02 1998 01:27 - ID#287193) the SOLDIER'S....not only the 'RETIRED'...
at the end of a week like the last one wonders and the troops look for a good honest GENERAL! Precept upon precept...line upon line..

Favorite precept of President Calvin Coolidge:
" Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.
Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.
Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.
Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts.
PERSISTENCE and DETERMINATION alone are omnipotent."

(Sat May 02 1998 01:33 - ID#307271)
Golden Soldiers
You know my Dad was a Soldier. Now my Dad is a Retired Old Soldier. But my Dad was never A Sniveling Sycophant! He lost part of his body in the Battle of the Bulge fighting that Mustacheod Chaldean Occultist. My Dad now knows that he can do all things through Christ who strengthens him. Stand Up Soldier! Be a Man! Dont Cower to the Power just because he seems strong. His days are numbered.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:34 - ID#28098)
"the International Monetary Fund is the problem. It was set up at Bretton Woods, chiefly under the leadership of Lord Keynes of England and Harry Dexter White of the United States, to make inflation and devaluation easier, smoother, and respectable.Instead of letting each country suffer the full consequences of its own inflation,the IMF used the stronger currencies to support the weaker. The long-run effect was
only to weaken the stronger currencies. One of the Bretton Woods' objectives from the beginning was to "phase gold out of the system."
One of the first steps in any real currency reform would be to
dismantle the IMF."

We're building a consensus Tolerant1 {:- )

Mozel@Thinker it's a battle every step of the way, isn't?

Goodnight all. God bless.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:37 - ID#411259)
..... Forward Sales .....


Your discussion of forward sales is correct. You forgot one thing though. Producers are like Funds, CBs, speculators, and me. They are traders also. A producer may sell forward at $300, at which level the mine would be profitable. If the metal rises, they will deliver metal they have been paid a fair and profitable price for. If the price drops to say.. $280, at which point the mine may become unprofitable, they can simply buy their contracts back, take a profit and look for the next rise to do it all over. Predictability of revenue is achieved.

Many mines, who would have otherwise closed, have kept their doors open because of forward sales. These mines may be delivering gold they were paid $380 for. I would say this is a GOOD deal. The smaller and unprofitable, will be absorbed into the lager and profitable. This is the food chain.

Some would say, why don't they all agree to just stop selling? The fly in that ointment is that cartels rarely work. Somebody or other is always slipping gold, or oil, or some damn thing out the back door before the guy sitting next to him does it first and forces the price down.

Forward sales are good, are necessary, and will NEVER end in ANY commodity market. You may carve this in stone and take it down from the mount to smite the golden calf, for this commandment will never be broken. It is a basic function of economics and the only way to properly produce any commodity.

For those that suggest that a Bill Gates or some other Rich Boy show up at the COMEX and write a check for all the gold contained therein. This is not possible. It is rather like mass reaching the speed of light, the closer it approaches, the more the mass increases. It would take an infinite amount of energy push mass to the speed of light. Mass may approach the speed of light ( with unimaginable reserves of energy needed to accelerate it thus ) but never to or beyond.

Buying a commodity raises the price. Buying a lot quickly, raises the price fast and high. Trying to corner a market is a self defeating enterprise. The would be buyer would insure that the aggregate price paid for the commodity would be much higher than when the buying began.

The problem with gold is that there is just so damn much of it. Lets say that it would be possible to buy all the gold in COMEX. The price rises dramatically. Another large holder of gold ( who are legion ) steps in to take advantage of these lofty heights and sells it back down. The original buyer is now left with all the gold in COMEX and it is now worth less than he paid for it. One may never corner a market not in fundamental storage.

GOLD IS NOT SCARCE!!!!!! I could deliver 10,000 ounces of bullion coins within 72 hours of receipt of wired funds. Sorry to yell, but the proceeding sell scenario can be made from virtually any place on Earth. Gold is accumulated. There is more gold in the vaults today, that at any time in history. Gold becomes Less scarce every year. If one could put their personal feelings aside, this fact is as the sun rising. It is the way it is. No amount of wishing will change this fact.

Tis true


(Sat May 02 1998 01:45 - ID#373403)
MegaBank Supervision
Testimony of Governor Laurence H. Meyer
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of
April 29, 1998

As this Committee knows, the supervisory practices of the Federal Reserve, and of the other U.S. banking agencies as well, have evolved in recent years toward a "risk focused" approach: one that emphasizes the importance of an institution's risk management policies and procedures, its risk measurement and information systems, and its internal controls. While reviewing asset quality clearly remains important, less emphasis than before is placed on the current condition of an institution's balance sheet, particularly in the case of large, internationally active organizations. It places increased reliance and supervisory focus on the role of senior management and boards of directors--that is, on the adequacy of corporate governance and the management and control process. Indeed, that is properly where the primary responsibility and focus must reside.

Moreover, for many of the new instruments, such as derivatives, we have increasingly relied on market discipline and disclosure, and have been impressed with their effectiveness. This approach has become necessary, we believe, in response to technological and financial innovations and to
the growing complexity, transaction volume, and increased pace in world financial markets today.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:51 - ID#373403)
Nothing is absolutely scarce. I could deliver 10,000 carats of diamonds to you tomorrow. I could deliver 10,000 shares of any overvalued stock you could ask for tomorrow. Your arguement is specious. It suggests golds value should drop to $1.

Relative rarity is the proper way to look at assets. How many people want to buy and hold versus how much of it there is. Gold is currently out of favor due to high levels of confidence in the status quo. People who own gold are willing to sell if gold rises a very little bit. Add some financial or political instability and the price at which people are willing to divest goes up.

I am not talking about little instability. I mean real fear for the future type instability which has not really been seen for the past twenty years.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:51 - ID#287193)
I take my hat off and greet your dad ! To you Mt.25:21 !
Good Night, Brother.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:53 - ID#411259)
..... Sheller Speaks, Do We Hear? .....

We all know and respect Mike Sheller, if not for all of his methods, than for his TA, Humor, and evident humanity. Since the early days of this forum, Our Starboy has added worth to this site that is incalculable. He may be the most respected member here.

For Sheller to thus take up arms and post displeasure is remarkable. I would suggest that our proven and even tempered friend may well have a point. When one who has shown us all the high road, decides to lay that cooperative face aside and speak his mind as he feels it must be spoken, and we all know his displeasure at acting thus, his words bear hearing.


They do

(Sat May 02 1998 01:55 - ID#153102)
@Forward Sales
Where is the rest of the story ?

Why can't farmers forward sell their corn crop to Kellogg ? Because Kellogg wants the best price. Kellogg uses corn to make a product that must compete with other like products. In the futures market Kellogg and the farmer each buy and sell in the future specualtively aiming for the best price. The pure speculators provide liquidity.

Jewelry fabrication aside, Gold has only one true use. As money. If gold were not money, still, and not a commodity like corn, there would be no need for forward sales contracts at all. Mines could close until there was just enough gold produced and offered to the futures market to make jewelry. But, that's not happening is it ? That is because gold is money. Banks do not buy gold as Kellogg buys corn, The fact gold is privately traded for paper is a temporary, historical anomaly. The fact is the forward sales contracts between gold producers and banks is an industry subsidy program. Like tobacco allotments. To control production and "price".

(Sat May 02 1998 01:55 - ID#307271)
Thanks S.
THat is my dream and my hope.

(Sat May 02 1998 01:56 - ID#57232)
Chat Line? This is addictive enough as it is.
GianniDioro: I like the way you think! So, all that BOJ cash disappeared into the Aether. Perhaps as you say it went into the US markets. Someday all that Yen - dollar carry trade will unravel. Likewise for the gold-dollar carry trade. Probably not for at least several months. Sure is hard to invest these days in gold when you don't know what currency might implode next and cause a gold fire sale.

Nick@C: Thanks for reminding us that all is not lost with our precious metals investments. It is easy to get too close, and loose track of the intermediate-trend when short term trend is down. Our mini gold rally has gone on for months longer than any prior bear market rally in the last two years. That has made me nervous, partially because I thought this time the equity market turmoil would have been bullish for gold, but it was not.

SDRer,All: RE - 4/30 FV report, complements of IDT. Perhaps one of us should fax FV and point out that he is mixing up paper and physical gold trades. This is especially worrisome, as it is FV who claims that only 25% of the price of gold is due to derivative trading. In actuality, I suspect that the real 'spot' price of gold is not far from the stated one. All we need to do is calculate the gold selling price for any large gold transactions, as Allen ( USA ) did that eventful day not so long ago.

FV has revised his statements about when gold should rise, by stating the CB's may still be selling. Apparently Terry Smeeton of the Bank of England has stated that EURO gold selling will continue to the end of 1998, but EMU spoksmen Charles Arentschildt and Steven Yorke have stated that EMU related selling will end in May of June. Either way, this would explain gold's lackluster performance for the last few weeks. This is a relief to me, as I was worried about a collapse in SEAsia. Hopefully Europe is not scretly in trouble. Still no word about where that $1 trillion in SEAsia losses finally wound up -- rolled over into bonds of some kind as expected ( to create delayed inflation ) , or is it hanging like a black cloud over europe?

I think we should all remind ourselves that there is a 'Gold War' out there, and unexpected reversals are to be expected, unless the CB's lose control.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:01 - ID#252127)
BMG is about to lose a Rock of Stability

News that Noranda plans to sell out its BMG holding looks like bad news to me.
Glad I sold out my Hemlo holdings well before they merged with Hemlo with BMG.
Seems the PDG's, Vengold/LIHIR hopes are free from impact.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:02 - ID#252127)
BMG is about to lose a Rock of Stability

News that Noranda plans to sell out its BMG holding looks like bad news for BMG to me.
Glad I sold out of Hemlo well before they merged Hemlo with BMG.
Seems that PDG's, Vengold/LIHIR hopes are free from impact.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:02 - ID#411259)
..... A good argument, rarely used .....

Missing Link -

Funny I did not hear this argument during the plethora of "GOLD IS SCARCE!!!!!!! I CANT GET ANY!!!!!" talk that has been going on here for months.

This would seem to point out that facts that support a bullish gold picture are roundly accepted and applauded in these halls.

Witness the dozens of posts bemoaning the "rarity" and "current scarcity" of gold. I did not see your argument put forth here by any. It takes only one post declaring gold is everywhere to bring your response.

Yes, balance is needed here.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:08 - ID#411259)
..... Flip a Coin .....

Mozel wrote:

"The fact gold is privately traded for paper is a temporary, historical anomaly."

This is true.

However, a fundamental change in the view of gold for all time, would start out appearing just as you describe. The starting pictures would be indistinguishable.

They would appear this way.


John B__A
(Sat May 02 1998 02:10 - ID#77133)
Gold is Money??
Offhand I don't know of any place where gold is used as money. I'm aware that it is a commodity and as such used beneficially for jewelry, electronics etc. I'm also aware that many of us use it as a store of value. Others of us use it as a convenient 24 hour a day compulsive obsessive addiction ( on this marvelous Kitco discussion site ) . Others of us use it as our medium for gambling in the equities, futures or bullion market.

But I still can't think of when I've ever used it as money. Help me out because I'm tired and going to bed. I'll check any posts that might answer my confusion tomorrow. Thanks,

(Sat May 02 1998 02:20 - ID#287193)
@ mozel...The pure speculators provide liquidity.
That is part of the truth and I agree. However, farmers are speculators too and many sell forward...often more than one year. Ask the McCains and the Heinz's and some chicken farmers.
A good speculator does not only bet that he is right, he keeps score every day on many power..calculated risk and so on. Do you not agree that we can only make money by putting GELD on the table against the mighty? Big money looses more often than the speculators and that is why the lines and trends are our friends. I believe that when gold goes to what I hear here, the mines are not the big winners. Or?

(Sat May 02 1998 02:28 - ID#255284)
History never repeats, it just gets older

The starting points would be indistinguishable RJ, but, many times have people found themselves doubting the honesty of Gold money, and being beguiled for a while by paper. Every time it has happened, the result is the same. Paper burns. Gold shines.

Gave my oldest friends' 11 year-old daughter a heft of a 10oz bar today. A girl of immense precosity, she was reading Greek Classics at six, an independant thinker, she is a joyous trial to her teachers, and now she is a gold bug.

I am downloading ICQ now.

...see you in the soup.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:35 - ID#252127)
2% of one trillion dollars is $20 billion;

When one figures the value of the major stock and bond markets in trillions ( 4,5,6,7,12 or whatever ) the impact on the investments where such amounts of money would go can be significant indeed.

(Sat May 02 1998 02:49 - ID#411259)
..... Not Popular Thoughts .....

Mozel also wrote:

"Gold has only one true use. As money"

Well this would seem to fly in the face of THE central argument occupying the minds of most here: Fiat Currency and its invalidity. For nowhere is gold used as money. It is simply traded for fiat currency ( ANOTHERS assertions aside ) .

It would seem that there are other types of money regarded as valuable, yes? You decry the move from gold to paper, yet a scant few years ago we all held the paper in our own hands. We now rarely even see the paper, its all numbers in space. If enough agree this is good, it will be so, and a new idea of money is born. This new birth would seem a more natural and easier transition than the original move to gold, lo those millinium ago. All that digging, melting, transporting, lifting, and storing. Seems a lot of work for something that could be accomplished by a card with a magnetic strip if enough agree that this is wise and should come to pass.

Nothing is money, but all engaged in exchange, agree is so.

Money is naught but an idea.

For those that think this is not so:

Recall a statement made on these pages with which you vehemently disagree, perhaps rabidly so, and probably written by me.

Have you ever gotten angry? Or the flip side, laughed uproariously?

These are but bits in space that assemble into symbols before your eyes. Why would these anger or levitate? Because the idea of the language is agreed upon, and these symbols represent ideas.

The Numbers in ones bank or fund account may well be agreed upon to be the new idea of wealth. Who would stop this if most want it so?

Missing Link called my argument specious.

There are many things more rare than gold, why are these not money? An accurate response to this would not be a recitation of the other uses of gold, for it violates the beginning sentence and focus of this post.

You may respond, "For 5000 years, gold has been valuable"

Have you asked yourself why?

If the collected early souls of earth had decided that silver, with every bit the other uses of gold, was the prettier, it would be now $300 per ounce, and gold would be a few bucks and found in the streets or used in gum ball machines. Cultures are rife with examples of currency. No gold is found in the mighty Kalahari, nor even many rocks. Perhaps you should go there and ask to trade your gold for water on a thirsty day.

When an argument is put forth. The next question must be asked. We are then nearer the truth. While a thought we grew up with and hold as true, offers comfort and a sense of history and continuity, like perhaps , for earlier generations, the Sun is a God.

Would it then become wise to ask, what if it is not?


(Sat May 02 1998 02:51 - ID#248180)
Gold @ FT London

Commodities 

Trichet finds favour with gold traders
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
Gold enthusiasts are hoping the dispute over who should be president of the European Central Bank will be settled this weekend in favour of Jean-Claude Trichet, at present governor of the Bank of France, rather than his opponent Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Monetary Institute.

Traders said Mr Trichet would be likely to recommend a higher proportion of total European central bank reserves be held in gold and that this would be bullish for the market.

"Trichet is the most avowedly pro-gold central bank head on record," pointed out Tony Warwick-Ching, analyst at Flemings Global Mining Group.

Estimates of the percentage of total European Central Bank reserves that will be in gold range from 5 to 30 per cent.

A decision about this is not expected to emerge from this weekend's European summit but will probably come early next month, dealers suggested.

Gold's price fell in late trading in Europe on Thursday after news that inflation in the US had all but disappeared, dropping from $311 a troy ounce to $306. It remained at about that level in Europe yesterday

(Sat May 02 1998 02:51 - ID#57232)
Is Gravity/inertia really electromagnetic radiation? A little diversion for all
RJ, all: This is a compilation of several articles by B. Haisch, some in first-rate Physics journals, such as:

'Inertia as reaction of the vacuum to accelerated motion' Physics Letters A ( in press, 1998 ) .

These articles are the best I have seen yet on the Zero Point Energy ( ZPE ) phenomenon.

First, the ZPE -- an empty space background energy source -- exists, verifed to within 5% of theoretical predictions by the study of the Casimir effect.

Secondly, this energy fluctuates, and interacts as virtual photons ( and other things ) with masses ( atomic electrons and quarks ) . If the atoms in question are stationary, or moving at a constant velocity, this interaction is perfectly balanced.

Thirdly, if an atom or group of atoms ( an object with 'mass' ) is accelerated, it will resist the acceleration, as we well know. But -- here is the wild new idea. It is not really inertia at all, but the unbalancing of the interaction of the mass with the ZPE field. What has happened is the acceleration of the mass has induced a reactive radiation in the ZPE, which acts back on the mass, resisting in propertion to the degree of acceleration.

So, according to this theory ( still a theory, but looking very good because it comes right out of relativistic Stochastic Electro Dynamics theory ) inertia is not really what we thought it was. What this says is that all of us are really 'massless' -- it is only the resistance of the ZPE background that gives the appearance of mass. The authors also explain gravity in a similar manner by stating that the gravitational attractive force between two objects is also actually electromagnetic, due to dipole-like charge fluctuations causing transient electromagnetic fields which on average cause the attractive force we call gravity. So gravitons do not exist per se. Gravity is apparently due to a virtual photon coupling of some kind.

Haisch speculates that an interstellar drive might be designed by nullifying intertial mass. He suggests that there may be a resonance effect between matter and the ZPE, so that all you would need to do is bathe your spacecraft with the right frequency ( or frequencies ) of electromagnetic radiation, and you would become massless.

Unfortunately, there is a catch to this speculation. The frequency of this radiation would be comparable to the inverse of Plank's constant -- this would be well into the X-ray region -- not too many x ray lasers out there -- and the radiation would be very dangerous. When I am more alert, I will calculate the approximate frequency. Hopefully there is a way around this problem, and non-lethal methods might be used to nullify inertial mass.

Regardless this is very exciting. Dr. Haisch works for Lockheed Martin, one of the largest Aerospace companies in the US. Some of his papers mention NASA support. It is interesting that this is now coming out for public consumption.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:01 - ID#411259)
..... Aurator & All .....

Before many and sundry get angry at me. I am playing Devil's Advocate here. The words I write are a glimpse into the other side of the argument.

Which will prove the future course is yet to be seen. Aurator offers the history of movements back into gold. History is on his side, and it may well prove to hold true again. But these are interesting ways to look at this, yes?

Divorced of all enamor, we may now look and the underside of the coin. Caged by our love of our yellow sister, we see only her face.

We do


(Sat May 02 1998 03:02 - ID#57232)
Here's a wild thought about inertia!
All: Corollary to my post about gravity nullification. Assume the Haisch theory is true. Then -- resistance to acceleration is due to a reactive radiation by the ZPE -- and we know this radiation is safe, because we are exposed to it all the time.

Now -- all we need to do is create that radiation artificially -- and the stars are ours.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:10 - ID#57232)
After the turning point -- G'Nite all! Both upover and downunder
A new meaning to 'after the turning point'. It looks like we have our ticket to the stars in front of us. All we have to do now is stabilize our world economic system -- that may be more of a challenge to us than surmounting the physics/engineering challenge. This new source of energy -- the ZPE -- will help solve some of our world's economic problems if we use it wisely.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:15 - ID#411259)
..... JTF .....

I have long suspected the Graviton was a cheap and whorish particle created to plug holes in the equations.

This would all seem to be in accord with Alfven's work , yes?

What role then for curved space?

Due to the wave/particle duality of light, what effect then?

I have always suspected I am mass-less. Others here will tell you this is so.

Please, keep up the posts. My appetite is voracious. And these less traveled late night hours do need the occasional diversion.


(Sat May 02 1998 03:17 - ID#372276)
what does the very last statement mean?


SUBCHAPTER VI -Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks:

 282. Subscription to capital stock by national banking association

Every national banking association within each Federal reserve district shall be required to subscribe to the

capital stock of the Federal reserve bank for that district in a sum equal to 6 per centum of the paid-up

capital stock and surplus of such bank, one-sixth of the subscription to be payable on call of the Board of

Governors of the Federal Reserve System, one-sixth within three months and one-sixth within six months

thereafter, and the remainder of the subscription, or any part thereof, shall be subject to call when deemed

necessary by the Board, said payments to be in gold or gold certificates.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:21 - ID#372276)
what is so special about 1997:1998?


SUBCHAPTER VI -Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks;

 289. Dividends and surplus funds of reserve banks

( 1 ) Stockholder dividends

( A ) In general

After all necessary expenses of a Federal reserve bank have been paid or provided for, the

stockholders of the bank shall be entitled to receive an annual dividend of 6 percent on

paid-in capital stock.

( B ) Dividend cumulative

The entitlement to dividends under subparagraph ( A ) shall be cumulative.

( 2 ) Deposit of net earnings in surplus fund

That portion of net earnings of each Federal reserve bank which remains after dividend claims

under paragraph ( 1 ) ( A ) have been fully met shall be deposited in the surplus fund of the bank.

( 3 ) Payment to Treasury

During fiscal years 1997 and 1998, any amount in the surplus fund of any Federal reserve bank in

excess of the amount equal to 3 percent of the total paid-in capital and surplus of the member

banks of such bank shall be transferred to the Board for transfer to the Secretary of the Treasury

for deposit in the general fund of the Treasury.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:27 - ID#372276)
Is this just for 1997:1998?


SUBCHAPTER VI - Capital & Stock of Federal Reserve Banks;

 290. Use of earnings transferred to Treasury

The net earnings derived by the United States from Federal reserve banks shall, in the discretion of the

Secretary, be used to supplement the gold reserve held against outstanding United States notes, or shall be

applied to the reduction of the outstanding bonded indebtedness of the United States under regulations to

be prescribed by the Secretary of the Treasury. Should a Federal reserve bank be dissolved or go into

liquidation, any surplus remaining, after the payment of all debts, dividend requirements as hereinbefore

provided, and the par value of the stock, shall be paid to and become the property of the United States and

shall be similarly applied.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:40 - ID#372276)


SUBCHAPTER IX - Powers and Duties of Federal Reserve Banks

 355. Purchase and sale of obligations of National, State, and municipal governments; open

market operations; purchases and sales from or to United States; maximum aggregate amount of

obligations acquired directly from or loaned directly to United States

Every Federal Reserve bank shall have power:

( 1 ) To buy and sell, at home or abroad, bonds and notes of the United States, bonds issued under

the provisions of subsection ( c ) of section 1463 ( FOOTNOTE 1 ) of this title and having maturities

from date of purchase of not exceeding six months, and bills, notes, revenue bonds, and warrants

with a maturity from date of purchase of not exceeding six months, issued in anticipation of the

collection of taxes or in anticipation of the receipt of assured revenues by any State, county,

district, political subdivision, or municipality in the continental United States, including irrigation,

drainage and reclamation districts, and obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to principal and

interest by, a foreign government or agency thereof, such purchases to be made in accordance

with rules and regulations prescribed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Notwithstanding any other provision of this chapter, any bonds, notes, or other obligations which

are direct obligations of the United States or which are fully guaranteed by the United States as to

principal and interest may be bought and sold without regard to maturities but only in the open


( FOOTNOTE 1 ) See References in Text note below.

( 2 ) To buy and sell in the open market, under the direction and regulations of the Federal Open

Market Committee, any obligation which is a direct obligation of, or fully guaranteed as to principal

and interest by, any agency of the United States.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 03:43 - ID#24135)
How do you do it Mr Cycle.
For the cyclist
I take your posts very seriously. Your call on a turn
on I think it was April 20 was perfect. You call another
for May 15 yes??
Are you saying this move will be down ???
By the way do you use software .. or vodka and pickles.
I do not like that little island there at around 312
at all. and silver's bounced off that supporting
trendlind so many times that its starting to get thin.

for Ray
Ranfontein is a shorter term play .. they earn the
equivalent of 2.4 rands annually at present gold price
.. a 10:1 p/e puts them at 24 and you can get them at
15. When the quarterlies hit the London traders desks
in about a month or less and they review over cups of
tea and sideways glances at their secretary's legs,
the London market will take it to 24 if joburg hasnt
already stolen the market.
Thats 24/15= 60 % profit and I will play for that.
afterwards we will see relative prices Harmony .. etc.
I will buy deeps with vigour if and after gold is
above 325.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 03:52 - ID#24135)
Money in the desert
For RJ
In the Kalahari or even the mighty
Gobi .. I would rather have Gold
coins to buy water than US greenbacks.
... in truth .. try it RJ

(Sat May 02 1998 03:54 - ID#411259)
..... I love Rumours .....

Spock ( THE MARKETS ARE STUPID!!!!!!!!!!! ) ID#210114:

There is no rationality to the markets. There is a RUMOUR that Belgium has sold gold and the POG tanks.

The rumour wasn't true.

Trading occurs on rumour and innuendo, not facts.

Hmmmmmm -

A rumor say's that the ECB gold holding will be 30%, and the POG rises.

The rumor wasn't true

Pink Floyd said it best:

Welcome to the machine.

Uh Huh

(Sat May 02 1998 03:55 - ID#372276)
redeemed? Can I George, Can I?



 411. Issuance to reserve banks; nature of obligation; redemption

Federal reserve notes, to be issued at the discretion of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

System for the purpose of making advances to Federal reserve banks through the Federal reserve agents

as hereinafter set forth and for no other purpose, are authorized. The said notes shall be obligations of the

United States and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks and for

all taxes, customs, and other public dues. They shall be redeemed in lawful money on demand at the

Treasury Department of the United States, in the city of Washington, District of Columbia, or at any

Federal Reserve bank.


sorry about the double spacing.

(Sat May 02 1998 03:56 - ID#333126)
only for the interested -- further reading on ZPE...

(Sat May 02 1998 04:04 - ID#411259)
..... I Agree Indeedy .....

JD -

The point was not which, dollar or gold, was more valuable, but that the currency of water is more valuable than all.

Anywhere I go in the world, I take gold with me.

It does bring smiles and offers of exchange.


(Sat May 02 1998 04:05 - ID#372276)
US payment of Interest
F*, or some other erudite kitcoite...

I take it that the USG cannot pay interest on it's debt with Federal Reserve Notes. Only with Bond issue? Is this correct?

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 04:17 - ID#24135)
North American gold sells for about 400 $/oz. It is
produced by earnest young people with bright eyes and
large white teeth that they display with pride. They
speak of their "personal goals". They never permit a
word to end with a vowel, because it sounds unfinished
to them .. "Africa" becomes "Africar" .. Cuba .. Cubar.
Their gold is very pretty.

South African gold sells forward for about $330.
It is as pretty as North American gold but it is mined
by Black people who are less sought after than North
Americans some of whom may even be hoilday stars.
Some people fear that these Black people may steal some
of their gold in some way or maybe even steal their cars.
Also as everyone knows South Africa is not stable and
may fall over at any time and the gold may be damaged.

Now regarding gold sold on the spot market or bewteen
CB. This is just as pretty as the gold described above..
BUT it not NEW. It is second hand GOLD .. Used Gold that
may contain some secret NAZI ingredients .. also some
jewish guy somewhere may regognize it as his grandmother's
gold and take it away from you.
It is also a little dusty sometimes and has finger prints
on it. It sells for about $305.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 04:19 - ID#24135)
Holliday = Hollywood

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 04:24 - ID#24135)
Does money REALLY make money ??
How does one TELL whether the bond
is BOND issue or treasury notes.
Doesnt it HAVE you be from treasury
notes. Do bonds give BIRTH to money ??

(Sat May 02 1998 04:47 - ID#284255)
Ed Yardeni's reports homepage - up to date articles

(Sat May 02 1998 04:51 - ID#284255)
UP 111 points one day. Down 147 points another. If the volatility in the
Dow Industrial Average gave you the willies this week, just wait: Our
pundits insist that more is on the way.

Considering the market has already moved up 15% this year, Edward
Kerschner of PaineWebber argues its only natural that we should see
some sort of near-term correction. Call it profit taking or caution, but
either way, Kerschner expects the market to fall between 5% to 10%. It
doesn't help that investors appear to be fixated on the notion that rising
inflation will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Most of the pundits we track, however, do not expect the Fed to hike
rates. And the two who are expecting an upward adjustment -- Byron
Wien of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and David Jones of Aubrey G.
Lanston -- say it is not likely to happen before July. The problem is the
market is spooked and traders will be watching any economic news
closely for hints of what the Fed will do next.

"Increased volatility in people's expectations of interest rates will cause
volatility in the stock market," says Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette's Elliott
Platt. Echoes Jones: "Market psychology is focused on the growing
possibility that continued near-term strength would elicit a reaction from
the Fed as early as July." Dates to watch include May 8 when the April
employment numbers come out and May 19 when the FOMC meets.

What should you do while the market is jumping up and down? Our
advice is stay put. Ride out the bumps and stick to your asset allocation
plan, because the worst move you can make is selling in a panic. Keep
in mind that our No. 1-ranked pundit, Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman
Sachs, is still a stock bull. She thinks stocks are now trading in a range,
but will soon move higher with a strengthening of corporate profits.
"Essential to future stock performance is the longevity of the profit
expansion which we expect to continue through... the end of 1999," Cohen says.

Even Platt, who specializes in bonds, says long-term investors are better
off in the equity markets than buying debt instruments. "The juice in the
bond market is over," he says. "Interest rates won't differ much, but
equity prices will keep moving up."

Naturally, our pundits don't think the market will go up forever. But even
the biggest pessimist -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Barton Biggs --
doubts this recent volatility is the beginning of the bear market. Biggs
thinks the Fed will leave rates alone for now and agrees that short-term
volatility will present buying opportunities for the time being. He suggests
keeping some cash on hand to buy on the dips. Biggs, of course, has
also been consistent in predicting that the "bubble" will burst with a 20%
correction sometime in the vaguely defined future. He then expects a
sustained bear market. So far, he's been wrong, as evidenced by his
10th-place position in our exclusive rankings. Let's hope it stays that way.

(Sat May 02 1998 04:59 - ID#372276)
out of thin air!
John Disney,

I don't really know.

When you say Treasury note; do you mean what you refer to as greenback, or Federal Reserve note?

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 05:24 - ID#24135)
You remind me of Genghis
for Tamerlane ..

What do you mean "What do I mean??".
I mean what do YOU mean when you say

"I take it that the USG cannot pay interest on it's
debt with Federal Reserve Notes. Only with Bond
issue? Is this correct?"

I mean debt is paid with money. Your
question implies that "bond issue" ..
presumably money that a bond gave birth to
is different from other kinds of money.
Like "you've got your mother's eyes" ..
I never looked at money that closely .. maybe
Im missing something.

(Sat May 02 1998 05:48 - ID#372276)
John Disney
When I said bond issue I really meant by the issuance of new bonds, not the money created thereby. I mean the obligation. My fault. In other words, if the US had a balanced budget, it would still be paying interest on the debt; but would the Federal Reserve allow the USG to pay interest with Federal Reserve Notes ( old bond obligations ) it acquired with revenue, or would the USG still need to pay interest in new obligations i.e. bonds. In other words, if Fed Notes are circulating USG obligations; and the USG revenue collection in is Fed Notes. Can the USG pay it's current interest with past principle obligations?

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 06:03 - ID#24135)
the plot thickens
For Tamerlane ..
How can the Fed tell the difference
between money from tax revenue and
money raised by issuing new bonds
and why would it prefer ( ?? ) to pay
bond interest off one way or the
Also if revenue shortfall Plus
bond interest is to be paid off
by issuing new bonds then better
issue with both hands.
I think ultimately the answer is
NEITHER .. bond interest is paid
by printing the required money.
And net bond redemptions the same

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 06:05 - ID#24135)
the plot thickens
For Tamerlane ..
How can the Fed tell the difference
between money from tax revenue and
money raised by issuing new bonds
and why would it prefer ( ?? ) to pay
bond interest off one way or the
Also if revenue shortfall Plus
bond interest is to be paid off
by issuing new bonds then better
issue with both hands.
I think ultimately the answer is
NEITHER .. bond interest is paid
by printing the required money.
And net bond redemptions the same

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 06:06 - ID#24135)
the plot thickens
For Tamerlane ..
How can the Fed tell the difference
between money from tax revenue and
money raised by issuing new bonds
and why would it prefer ( ?? ) to pay
bond interest off one way or the
Also if revenue shortfall Plus
bond interest is to be paid off
by issuing new bonds then better
issue with both hands.
I think ultimately the answer is
NEITHER .. bond interest is paid
by printing the required money.
And net bond redemptions the same

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 06:13 - ID#24135)
Sorry ..
didnt mean to pull a farfel ..

(Sat May 02 1998 06:18 - ID#253418)
Sorry to report
Sorry to have to correct the erroneous report encouragingly made earlier that Gold was back up to 305.90 in HK. The HK quote was made at 6pm HK time on Saturday but the quoted price was the previous night's overnight price.

(Sat May 02 1998 06:28 - ID#284255)
Welcome to the Gold Rush!

(Sat May 02 1998 06:37 - ID#372276)
John Disney
John Disney, one of a kind... makin' me use my mind

Well, the government doesn't issue money, the government issues bonds to the Fed Bank, then the Fed Bank issues money ( Fed Notes ) . There is no reason to do things this way other than to allow the Fed to collect interest.

How can the Fed tell the difference? It would be like telling a lame joke you made up in the morning circulate back to you in the afternoon. Or perhaps if you were Hercules, died, reincarnated, and forced to worship Hercules in the next life. The Fed doesn't want to be paid with the paper that it created, it wants government obligations.

In a situation where the budget was balanced, for the government to pay off interest in Fed Notes....I'm thinking that it would effectively retire so much US debt, would decrease the money supply and credit and contract the US economy ( burst the bubble ) ....I can't wrap my mind around it...easy way out, yes, but it's still workers day over here. Hittin' the sack.

(Sat May 02 1998 06:40 - ID#284255)
``Cobol is like Indian culture - evolutionary, not revolutionary.''
Y2K saves Cobol from trash can of history

(Sat May 02 1998 06:52 - ID#284255)
I have great love of the sea
I have great love of the sea
Tempered somewhat with fear
Of the fierce energy
And the great power latent there.

Always a deep respect
Always a care in me
For the savage swift rip,
The scouring undertow
The hidden strength of the sea.

And that big seventh wave
Or is it ninth or ten?
It thunders overhead, and then
Floods, ravens and rages
Over the stubborn rocks
From where, now and then,
Despite their understanding
Of the restless sea,
It takes a careless fisherman.
The wash crashes and shocks
Amongst the channelled rocks
Of the hard rough edge of the land.

It flows swift, powerful
Down the long reaches
Of golden sand
Spreading cream curds of foam
Small shells, seas flotsam
Over golden beaches.

But the surfies, boys and some girls,
Ride it fearless.
Cool nerve and skill
Ride waveform and seas energy,
And take their splendid fill
Of the power and seas dangers
And with consummate skill
Master the great green seas
For the Love of it.
The thrill,
And the spirit's ecstasy.

(Sat May 02 1998 06:52 - ID#286279)
ICQ won't take as email address so I registered as

(Sat May 02 1998 07:28 - ID#254201)
Needless to say, getting bullish on last week's break out of gold's multi year downward channel has not turned out to be one of my proudest moments. Market Failures happen just like auto accidents. A good defense driver can go may years without a serious accident. a market player with a good defense ( Money Management - Use of appropriate STOPS ) can survive over the long haul without a serious hit to one's equity.

What's next? The XAU retraced almost an exact .618 of it's decline from last year. If the XAU can't get above the 91 area by the end of May a strong possibility exists that it's headed down to test the lows under 70 over the next few months. If this happens gold and silver are both going to get hit. So far gold has only traced out a 3-wave advance and failed at a critical area. If the XAU fails to make new highs by June, gold could easily break 295 and head toward 280.

Silver has a better out look short term. In recent times ( 10-15 years ) there has been only one year that silver didn't make some kind of advance between late April and Mid May. This year should be no different

If you want to see a bullish chart. Look at the island reversal on the June SnP chart that has only the day session. This market is so strong the Dow could be at 10,000 in June and the SnP cash at 1200.

If you follow the Fidelity Select funds look at Select Energy Service it's a screamer. My self-directed pension fund is 70% invested in that fund.

(Sat May 02 1998 07:33 - ID#284255)
It's not so simple a program?

I registered on IRC under my normal email name.

And then added - - to the Add/Find Users

Not sure that this is correct.

Perhaps one who is familiar with the program will run through the necessary procedures.

Always on a learning curve.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Sat May 02 1998 07:38 - ID#347267)
The release of the rumour of Belgian CB gold sales may have been the trigger, but please someone, give me your best guess as to the initiator and why -- just to let some more large players get in??. By the way, ( forgive if previously provided ) a very good site for verification of this and other fundamental reports is: Just click on the various categories; the denial of the rumour is provided.

Most of the gold charts look disappointing, with a few exceptions like ABX and KGC, which are "hanging in" above the 200 day MA. Would love to see a rally Monday, but we may have to go a bit further and get the XAU to test it's own 200 day MA. Off topic but IMO related: spend a little time and look at the charts of the major oils. SOMETHING is brewing.

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 07:46 - ID#347447)
JTF - have a ZPE doo-dah day!
Pulling into my driveway the other day, I sat for a while with the engine running ( no, I was not some hapless gold mining company Director attempting suicide ) listening to a news report. It dealt with the latest consternation of scientists who seem to have discovered that the universe is expanding faster now that when it began ( Haven't these people ever looked at a stock or commodity price chart? ) Momentum, lads, momentum. Things always get more volatile as you near a top. The supposition now is that there is some form of matter out there in the "empty" space previously thought void, and that this matter is in some way responsible for certain manifestations "out here." I rest my case.

Classical occultists have been harping on the interpenetration of spheres of matter of progressively "denser" degrees for centuries, if not millenia. This is old hat. Very nice to see "modern" empirical scientists coming around, slowly, to most of the tenets of classical metaphysics. The ZPE spoken of may just be the "astral" plane of matter ( the Radiant Solid state of matter of the physical plane, or the next step "in" that is analagous to the "element" of "fire" out "here." The radiant solid state of matter IS starlight. It is also the "electrical" sphere within which the visible, tangible human universe science can only deal with at present is set. Within this sphere are the counterparts of all organic life "out here." In other words, taking that wonderful micro universe the human body as an example, the pattern and "blueprint" of the human form is an electrical matrix in the astral ( ZPE? ) . Around, in, and through this pattern of radiant solid particles and structures, the "earth, water, air, and fire" of the solid state of matter of this physical world ( the elements ) are trapped, held, distributed, and exchanged. The invisible ZPE is the matrix for all that is visible. I will cease here, as I realize that the simplicity of this thought is often mitigated by its awesome implications. And one caveat: Lest anyone think I am referring ( as some New agers might put it ) to a more "spiritual" realm, or as Christian Fundamentalists might see it as a reference to the "Kingdom of God," FORGET IT. This is, in the eyes of classical occultists, a mere back alley relative to this earth. There are globes and layers ( the other "Heavens" of St Paul ) "further in" and "more encompassing" ( at the same time ) that interpenetrate from more abstract realms. Yet it is from the thought comes the reality. Man has things backward. The eternal truths and verities are in "heaven" - accessible only by the mind and intelligence. Out here in the temporal world, we can only observe the incessant reflections of man's misapprehension of who and what he truly is, and what this place is all about. As Jesus said "Don't ye know ye are as Gods?"

(Sat May 02 1998 07:53 - ID#253418)
Good summary APH
Thanks for the overview of the markets as they closed Friday. Generally agree with your comments. Fidelity's Energy Service is certainly a winner. I am thinking about shifting my gold holding out for energy service companies - probably a little late. Gold may have a lid on it in the form of continued Central Bank selling. Judging for what has been written here today those sales seem to be continuing and may get rather intense as the opportunity to do so gets down to what appears to be an extended wire.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 02 1998 08:11 - ID#345321)
What gives with Platinum, guys?????????
It has lost almost $25 in the last week!

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 02 1998 08:13 - ID#345321)
This is good for a laugh - OOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
Saturday May 2, 7:33 am Eastern Time

Natural Law Party says euro won't fly

BRUSSELS, May 2 ( Reuters ) - Yogic flyers from across Europe gathered on Saturday to warn EU
leaders the single currency was bound to fail unless accompanied by a systematic programme of
transcendental meditation.

Tough financial targets and stability pacts were not enough to secure the future of the bloc's most
ambitious project, said Natural Law Party leaders.

``Across the road EU leaders are putting the cart before the horse - they are legislating for a single
currency without the harmony of the hearts and minds of the people of Europe,'' said Thomas
Mullins, Natural Law Party chairman in Northern Ireland.

Reinhard Borowitz, leader of Germany's NLP, said the EU should fund a Brussels-based group of
7,000 experts in transcendental meditation who would practise yogic flying and other techniques to
``purify the collective conscience.''

``The governments of Europe are wasting their time because they are not addressing the issue fully,''
Borowitz said.

The Natural Law Party was founded in Britain in 1992 by guru Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, the Indian
mystic whose followers included the Beatles, and says it now has branches and millions of adherents
in over 60 countries worldwide.

The 7,000 flyers would act as a giant ``washing machine,'' Borowitz said, for the global collective

The NLP leaders said their ideas were attracting growing interest from established political parties
and claimed some of the credit for the recent peace accord in Northern Ireland.

``The NLP was set up in Northern Ireland five years ago and it was the only party to stand in every
constituency there in the general elections last year,'' said Mullins.

Mullins said the NLP would be holding a major demonstration of yogic flying in the province to be
held in the days leading up to the Northern Ireland assembly elections on June 25.

Steve in TO__A
(Sat May 02 1998 08:16 - ID#287337)
Mr. Disney - Money creation and the central banks
It can be challenging to get a grasp on how fiat money is really put into circulation, how that relates to credit creation, and how central banks make the profits they report every year.

Maybe it comes from the idea most people have that it's the government that "prints" money, because it is usually government mints that print the paper bills and stamp the coins that we use for cash. There is actually no reason why mints could not be private, though. Perhaps in some countries they are.

In many countries, though, particularly those with a British connection, the central banks are private corporations, such as the US Federal Reserve, or independent, such as the Bank of Canada, which is a "Crown Corporation" rather than a government ministry.

What most people don't realize is that fiat curency is actually put into circulation by the central bank, not the government. In these days of huge government deficits, the government is a big source of pressure for money creation, but ultimately, it is created out of thin air as a credit by the CB.

Even the paper cash you use ultimately reflects this reality. A US bill is called a "Federal Reserve Note" and Canadian bills state that they are issued by the Bank of Canada, even though the government prints them.

The central banks try to control the economy via the CB prime interest rate, which is essentially the price charged for money. That price varies with supply and demand like any other commodity, even though the commodity is an ephemeral thing nowadays that exists only as ones and zeros in computer memories.

When the CB wants to increase liquidity it opens up the "discount window" for the banks and lets them borrow money more cheaply. If the banks want more money they come and borrow it faster at the lower rates and then start lending it out to their eager customers- and voila, the economy heats up as money starts to circulate.

Remember, though, that this money began its life as a computer entry at the central bank, and first appears as an asset to the central bank and a liabilty to the borrowing bank.

The best comparison for modern money would be a magnet. Just like a magnet can only exist with two poles, north and south, modern money always exists as an asset and a liabilty- and this money is "extinguished" as the loan that created it is "paid off." The bank loans this money to Joe Blow Widgets Inc. and a new asset entry at the bank offsets its liability to the CB, and now Joe Blow Inc. has a liability entry in its books. Joe Blow Inc. pays Sally Consumer a salary, and Sally decides to get a new car by going to the bank and getting car loan, which then offsets a bit more of the bank's liabilities, and so on.

As long as Joe Blow Inc. and Sally make their payments to the bank, the bank makes its payments to the CB, and everybody is happy. Of course, defaults happen, and this ends up being factored into the cost of money.

The government raises its money by auctioning off Treasury Bonds. In theory, anybody can buy them, although in practice very few individuals have the cash and expertise available to go to an auction and actually buy them directly. You can get American and Canadian ones through an investment dealer, though, as can anyone overseas, or any corporation. Some countries restrict sales of their treasury bonds, but most first world countries don't. They also raise smaller amounts of money by selling things like "savings bonds" to the public.

I think you can see that the government is doing the same thing as the commercial banks. If they sell treasury bonds to the CB, new money is created, when a corporation or an individual buys a bond, money circulates: creating an asset for the lender and a liability for the government.

Where does the CB get paid in all of this? In interest, of course. It's really being paid in computer bits, when you take a Hard Money view of things. A large source of income for the CB of which most people are unaware is the "currency float." Remember, all those bills in people's wallets, purses, suitcases and mattresses are assets on the central bank's books. Then there are minor sources of income such as gold leasing and service fees for custodial care of other countries' gold reserves. It might surprise you to know that many third- and second-world countries don't actually have their gold stored within their territory. Many of them actually have it stored in New York!

If all this seems a bit ephemeral and insubstantial to you- I would say you're very perceptive. It all depends on circulation, and circulation only happens when people are confident.

Hope this helps,
- Steve

(Sat May 02 1998 08:16 - ID#238295)
Mike Sheller: As I indicated earlier the subject of Jin Rogers has been done to death. Let me just say there is a big diffference between recognizing that the short-term trend has turned down ( my take ) and Jim Rogers' argument that the secular bear still is not over. By following Rogers one would have missed the huge rally in gold shares from last fall's lows.

(Sat May 02 1998 08:16 - ID#286279)
nickname = sam
nonfunctioning email =
ICQ #11922834

For the time being I have set security preference to [authorization required] to add me to your contact list.

(Sat May 02 1998 08:17 - ID#284255)
Waiting for what? ECU or Y2K
Status Reports:
Depression. Denial. That's not the latest report from psychologists, but rather the growing sentiment among industry experts keeping tabs on the year 2000 conversion efforts of major U.S. companies. According to a new Y2K survey of 200 IT professionals conducted by the Cutter Consortium, an alarming 91 percent have not yet assessed the direct costs of Y2K compliance.

In addition, nearly 80 percent of companies have not yet disclosed expected costs for their conversion efforts, and only 21 percent said they will offer warranties, guarantees or other legally binding commitments of compliance to their customers or shareholders.

"Although these statistics are troubling, what I find most disturbing is there are countless companies out there that are still--in 1998--trying to deny their Y2K problems, even internally," says Ed Yourdon, chairman of the Cutter Consortium, in Arlington, Mass.

Maybe some of these companies should read the newest psychological studies on how to snap back to reality.
The continental shift of the euro
The continental shift of the euro
By Fred Brenchley, London

In the apprehensive debate about whether the 21st century will belong to China or the US, one potential winner has been neglected -- Europe. European leaders gather this weekend in Brussels' Justus Lipsius building to approve the expected 11 starters for euro single-currency membership, signalling the start of an economic transformation of Europe into a more efficient competitor to Asia and the US.

But the euro -- an almost incredible leap of faith by 11 nations -- will do much more than that.

It could be the catalyst to drive Europe to a degree of political unity not seen since the Roman Empire or Charlemagne. That would render redundant Henry Kissinger's famous lament: in a crisis, what's Europe's telephone number?

European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) has been dominated so far by the struggle of aspirants to match the fiscal entry criteria of the Maastricht Treaty, with several "fiddles" along the way.

That is over. This weekend's meeting will approve Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg as qualified, despite nerves about Italian and German debt. Britain, Denmark and Sweden have opted out, while Greece's poor finances exclude it.

Barring some unseen debacle, the euro will be launched on January 1, 1999, when the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) will set a one-size-fits-all interest rate for Euroland and national debt will be redenominated in euros. Euro notes will not appear until 2002.

With the mechanics of transition established, the focus is switching to the sustainability of this fiscal tightening -- in effect, the euro's survival -- and the prospect that the euro will challenge the premier global position of the US dollar.

De Gaulle once said that the power of the dollar "enabled the United States to be indebted to foreign countries free of charge". That might be typical Gaullist anti-Americanism. But there's no doubt that the dollar's might has boosted America's global muscle.

Nobody expects the euro to quickly displace the dollar's premier reserve currency role. But earlier views that the euro's impact will be slight are now being revised.

The US deputy Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, told a conference last year that the dollar would remain the primary reserve currency "for the foreseeable future . . . We expect the impact of the euro on the monetary system to be quite limited initially and to occur only gradually."

Now academics are promoting "move-over-dollar" scenarios, which, if true, would affect Australia's role in the US dollar bloc.

The reasons for the revision concern the size of Euroland ( even without the UK as a starter ) , and the overweighting of the dollar in global central bank reserves, financial markets and as a vehicle in trade, essential functions of a reserve currency.

The US might represent only 16.6 per cent of world trade, but some 48 per cent of world exports are invoiced in dollars. The dollar is used in 83 per cent of two-way transactions in foreign exchange markets, many of which are trade related. Some 74 per cent of all central bank foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars. Europe alone holds 60 per cent of its reserves in dollars. There is clearly huge scope for the euro to play a significant role, even if it is the new kid on the bloc.

"Over time the sheer size of the economy in the [European] monetary union using the euro will encourage the use of the euro instead of the US dollar in trade and foreign exchange transactions through raising liquidity," says Martin Brookes, of Goldman Sachs in London."This will facilitate increased use of the euro rather than the US dollar in foreign exchange interventions by central banks. In turn this will encourage non-European Union central banks to switch an increasing proportion of their reserves into euros."

Although Brookes says the euro will not usurp the dollar in the short term, the trend is likely to be persistent and the new currency will eventually become as widely used as the dollar.

Some analysts believe the birth of the euro might actually create new demand for dollars as European central banks build up their foreign exchange reserves in the short term to guard against speculative raids. While this could create some volatility in dollar-euro exchange rates, the move into dollars is unlikely to last long. The longer-term trend, the analysts say, will be towards greater euro holdings worldwide.

Two British academics, Richard Portes at the London Business School and Helene Rey of the London School of Economics, beg to disagree. In a chapter in a new book, EMU: Prospects and Challenges for the euro, they use new data to argue that the "shock" the euro will bring to the international monetary system will be "substantial and relatively sudden".

"Market participants as well as authorities appear now to be taking this possibility more seriously -- and the degree of global integration of financial markets may make the transition to a new equilibrium much faster than historical examples," they write.

Crucial to the Portes-Rey quick-shock scenario is the belief that integrated European euro markets will lower the cost of financial transactions denominated in euros, encouraging financial intermediaries such as banks to do more business in the new currency. If transaction costs in euro securities markets are lower than the dollar's, there could be a quick shift to a new equilibrium where the euro either completely replaces the dollar in its major international role or replaces it only in some respects. In a Europe-Asia-America "three-country world", a "big" euro could replace the dollar in the Europe-Asia and Europe-America sides of the triangle, leaving the dollar as the main economic link between America and Asia.But if transaction costs on euro securities remain high, only limited change will occur.

"The internationalisation of the euro therefore hinges critically on the speed of integration of euro financial markets, on the willingness of the European Central Bank not to hinder internationalisation, and on the number of participants in monetary union, especially on UK participation," Portes and Rey argue. "Since the turnover on the UK bond market is high by European standards, the participation of the UK in EMU can tilt us from one equilibrium to another."

Portes and Rey have calculated the economic consequences of shifting the global financial balance from the dollar dominance that has prevailed since the greenback overwhelmed sterling in the interwar years.

In the "big euro" scenario, Europe would receive a 0.5 per cent GDP efficiency boost, while America would suffer a similar loss.

Interestingly for Australia, Portes and Rey argue that Japan would suffer a loss of 0.7 per cent of GDP in the "big euro" scenario. "The gains for Europe come mainly from decreasing costs on the bond markets," they argue. "The losses for the US and Japan come from foreign exchange market transactions: both countries are better off when the dollar is the vehicle currency."

Of course, many others doubt that there will be any quick shift to a "big euro". Commodity markets will not lose their dollar dominance, they say, and transaction costs in dollar markets may remain lower than the euro's.

In the end, it depends on whether the euro experiment works, and whether Britain, ever the reluctant bride in Europe, joins. The outcomes will determine whether the euro transforms or transfixes Europe.

Optimists see the new currency as the answer to the "Eurosclerosis" that has crippled the continent in the era of globalisation. It could create competitive pan-European banking and securities markets, forcing fiscal disciplines on lazy governments that will have to cut bloated welfare budgets.

A single currency could also spark a boom in European consumerism, enabling buyers to value-shop across Europe for pensions and cars without the disguised cost differentials of currencies. Duty-free shopping within Europe will disappear.

But the market-smashing effect welcomed by the euro optimists is also the wellspring of the euro pessimists.

Unemployment still stalks Europe, despite the recent upturn. France and Germany have 12 and 11.5 per cent jobless respectively, but in eastern Germany and Spain it is higher still. Average Euroland unemployment is 11.9 per cent.

Already the far Right is on the rise. What happens if the euro, as expected, puts the knife through government spending ( and employees ) as well as welfare handouts? French workers, farmers and students are prone to a street barricade mentality.

The euro glass can get darker. Euroland's single interest rate and stability-pact straitjacket mean that in a recession, national governments will no longer have the safety valves of exchange rates or budgetary profligacy.

As European workers are nowhere near as mobile as their American counterparts ( there are few jobs in Finland for Spanish-speakers ) , inappropriate interest rates or fiscal clamps could create booms and busts across the continent. Yet the Maastricht Treaty has no exit. Quite simply, the locking of exchange rates is "irrevocable". If a country opts out, the entire euro project could stumble. Some commentators even mutter darkly of the euro leading to "war". That's far-fetched. But the uncertainty about the euro's success explains why Britain can afford to be standoffish for the moment. Certainly Tony Blair would be foolish to join now, locking sterling in at its current high rate.But Britain will join when the euro succeeds. It could not afford to let London be swamped by a rampant Frankfurt or Paris. That suggests it will join around 2002, when British and Continental economic cycles might be more in line, with sterling lower.

Meanwhile, Britain is being wooed by Americans such as Newt Gingrich who argue it should join the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) rather than the euro. This would give Britain the unique status of being a member of both the EU and NAFTA.This panders to those Eurosceptics and little-Englanders who either want to preserve British sovereignty at all costs or see Britain as an island of economic opportunity off Europe, a kind of European Taiwan.

It is also a sign that Washington is starting to worry that Britain in the euro might be just the event to tip the scales to the "big euro" nightmare for the dollar.

(Sat May 02 1998 08:20 - ID#286279)
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(Sat May 02 1998 08:29 - ID#286279)
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(Sat May 02 1998 08:30 - ID#286279)
Can't stay awake any longer. Good night.

(Sat May 02 1998 08:31 - ID#240120)
Bye Bye !
Gentlemen ( ladies? ) and RJ, I shall be gone for a while and would like to take this opportunity to thank you all very much for your contributions. I have thoroughly enjoyed this Kitco Gold Forum and will be back in a couple of months or so. Thank you and G o G o l d.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 08:31 - ID#384350)
JTF, Yen-Carry Trade
Obviously the Yen-carry trade is going elsewhere in addition to the US markets. Europe has benefitted. England is sporting attractive short-term yields of around 7%.

I also read that some of this Hot money had previously made its way to Latin America, and Speculators got burned by the Asian crisis Knock on effects late last year. However, what they lost in Latin America was more than made up in No. America. I suppose now, where they put this money is just becoming more specialised or limited to a handful of countries, notably the US.

(Sat May 02 1998 08:36 - ID#254112)
@Tamerlane: (US payment of Interest)
You asked:
"I take it that the USG cannot pay interest on it's debt with Federal Reserve Notes. Only with Bond issue? Is this correct?"

My understanding is this: The USG of course has to pay interest in legal tender, which is in the US right now Federal Reserve Notes, ( or the equivalent of this as a check or any other means of payment ) . The USG collects this money from the American taxpayers.

However: the USG always spends more than what it collects from the taxpayers and therefore issues new T-notes to the New York Fed Reserve Bank which is obliged by law to buy these notes for money. The FED pays the Treasury Department ( USG ) with money which the FED creates out of thin air. This is called "debt based creation of money".

People usually do not believe this. Therefore it is very important to get confirmation for this installed mechanism of creating money from different sources. The legal foundation for this "creation of money out of thin air" has been implemented on the 23rd of December 1913. Most clear thinkers, who have a precise understanding of this "law", say that this law is in contradiction of the American Constitution. For instance, the US congressman Lindberg fought against this law all his life and wrote many books against the Federal Reserve System. So did many others. So does mozel and SDRer and many others here at kitco.

What makes the situation in the US even worse is the fact, that the Federal Reserve System with all its "duties" and privileges ( the most important privilege is the monopoly right to create money ) is owned by private interational banking dynasties. Therefore the old feudal right of kings to control and issue money is in the hands of a feudal, international, financial oligarchy. This of course is in antagonistic contradiction to all democratic principles and therefore I can understand very well why honest Americans enter a kind of moral outrage when they become or are aware of this.

I look at this phenomenon with the eyes of a European, with the awareness of the gigantic destruction, which the finacial dynasties have done to European peoples in this century. Beginning with the Bolshevik revolution, the estabishment of the bi-polaric power architecture of world domination, the cultural and ideological destruction of peoples and nations. One of the most fascinating questions in this area of my own weekend research is, to find answers to questions like these:
- what was the motivation of the top financial oligarchy to create communism?
- what was the strategic motivation of Rockefeller's think tanks to design those "liberation ideologies" based on the fusion of Freud and Marxism ( engaging people like Horkheimer, Adorno, Marcuse, Habermas and others ) , which formed the foundation of today's socalled "liberalism" in the western world.

Maybe you think now: "o.k., there are a lot of crazy guys here at kitco". Do you?
To buy gold to hedge against the uncertainties of these finacial markets, which are only partially "markets" and at the same time a big financial battlefield for the finacial Dynasties to betray and impoverish the "lower" classes and keep them in dependency and suppression, is a good thing to do, whether you are interested in financial power structures and history or not.

Let's see what comes out of the ECU meeting in Europe this weekend.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 02 1998 09:00 - ID#20767)
RJ: Not Enough?
Date: Sat May 02 1998 01:37

RJ ( ..... Forward Sales ..... ) ID#411259:

".... The problem with gold is that there is just so damn much of it. ...."

If gold is considered a commodity, only, this statement stands as clearly self-evident. In fact, its ramifications for the price of gold would be bearish, indeed.

However, if gold is considered, or becomes, a reserve standard for honest, non-debt money, there is not nearly enough of it at today's prices!

(Sat May 02 1998 09:27 - ID#222231)
ALL - Topic on EURO on C-SPAN
Velly intellesting!

Steve - Perth__A
(Sat May 02 1998 09:51 - ID#284170)
My new ICQ Homepage
Thanks Bart for getting around to setting up ICQ. It is one of those
things I have been meaning to do for ages. I think it was in my PC
anyhow. Not being a techie you know... Steve Blizard

(Sat May 02 1998 09:52 - ID#324266)
Steve in To @ 8:16
Congrats on the clarity of your description! The Federal Reserve Banks are a very special kind of private corporation. The governers are Presidential appointees, and the banks have monopolistic abilities backed by the coercive posture of the USG.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 09:54 - ID#347447)
Your 8:36 dwarfs any attempt on my part to be so cogent, eloquent, and to the point about the subject. Thank you. A "saver."

(Sat May 02 1998 10:00 - ID#28593)
Unconditional trust in strangers--gosh it's difficult!
Well, RJ has certainly put the world in perspective for moi!

That there is a measure of unease in the unconditional trust in strangers implicit in unfettered electronic exchange and settlement, not to mention proprietary algorithms of risk management where asset value ( which one understands is now clearly anachronous concept ) is subordinate to quality of supervision , will hopefully be forgiven. That those about to assume power will be comfortable with the standard-less standard is surely evident.

One does wonder however, why--since the Jamaica Accords of 1975--the banking community has not proceeded with greater dispatch to divest themselves of their over-abundant stock of meaningless metal. As all money is belief, programmed and systematic divestitures of their gold over the twenty-five year period, would certainly have been most helpful in building--and cementing--a belief structure predicated on the Honor-of-the-Bankers-Word. Surely a missed opportunity.

Perhaps even more disconcerting, the banking community seems stubbornly reluctant to accept a final decree of divorcement, willfully continuing with the pass practice of tacking some measurement of gold onto modern agreements. The London Bank Settlements Accord of 1996 comes to mind: if Bank A loans Bank B 100,000 pounds, and Bank B loans Bank A 100,000 yen, the transaction will be--should something happen to either bank--netted out, because the fine print gives a GoldFranc value of equal weight to the pound and the yen should certain settlement conditions be present.

It only works with gold. One becomes exasperated; why are they still using the metal. If it is difficult to put ones trust in strangers, it is even more difficult to put ones trust in inconsistent strangers; or, more distressing yet, inconsistent strangers who say one thing and do another. {:- )

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 10:01 - ID#347447)
Steve in TO
Likewise your magnetic exposition on funds creation.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 10:04 - ID#347447)
I am sure you recall the last person who declared "I have always depended upon the kindness of strangers."

(Sat May 02 1998 10:06 - ID#339274)
John Disney
My work is based on the 19 week linear cycle of gold.In the
backdrop I use extensively longterm seasonal and yearly cycles.
On turning points like the one April 20,if and when the price is violated
we will see a rebound with a continuous slide thereafter.
Silver in spring is a good indicator of the priceaction to follow.
Silver should be going up and I would think it is going to be
a false rally to top out on May 15.A decline to follow in the
corresponding week,basing in the fourth week and one week sharp
rise in the first week of June.In this time frame I like silver
mining stocks the best and will see hope nice profits.I took one
exception on Rangy its volatility and value is worth the position
Time will tell.Trading is discipline ,all the chart programs are nice
but have little value in the overall picture
I don't drink Vodka and eat pickles.Time to go to the mountains this weekend. Have a good day until Monday.

(Sat May 02 1998 10:07 - ID#45173)
@sharefin: COBOL and Y2K procrastination
I have a pal I've know for almost 20 years, lives in a run down part of Cambridge, Massachusetts. Paint peeling, stinky, ratty rug apartment. Crack house down the street. He's a COBOL programmer. Until recently he continued to eek out a living working now and then as contract programmer at $35/hr making just enough to pay the rent and hang out at The Middle East and listen to garage rock bands. You might say he's a loser but I know him to be a great human who has somehow maintained an anti-materialist idealism throughout the roaring 80's and 90's. Now he's wearing an old "COBOL" T-shirt around and making $250/hr contracting to local banks and financial services companies. He's making so much money he's in a crisis with his identity. He doesn't know where to put the cash since he's not used to having any and doens't want to put it in the bank, for obvious reasons. I tell him to buy gold and put it in a safe deposit box. Banks are good for that, although in a year or so bank personnel may be busy handling other matters so long waits may be necessary to get stuff back out of the box. I figure he'll be busy this way for years.

On your PC Week article on companies waiting, that's what I see too in my travels. Most companies are still avoiding Y2K or are engaged in extreme wishful thinking. One company I visited plans to replace their mainframe systems with new client/server applications before Y2K. This is the most absurd fantasy. A company builds its business practices around its computer systems and its computer systems around its business practices, both at the same time over many, many years. It's a slow, organic process. Ultimately they wind up with a set of operations personnel whose entire value to the organization is their ability to enter customer information, process orders, run forcast reports, etc., using these systems in keeping with the way the company conducts business. Take away the application and install a new one and you have rendered useless all of the expertise that performs the day to day operations of the company. Personnel can be retrained, but this takes a very long time since they also have to keep running the business. In any case, the applications must be modified by the vendor in order to fit operations practices. This all takes a lot of time. I know a company that has gone through this process and hired extremely bright consultants from Anderson Consulting, and two years later they are still struggling and running the business on the old system.


(Sat May 02 1998 10:09 - ID#284255)
The next five pages are the Dow 30 stocks ( a couple missing ) - on weekly.

Many of them have just finished major legs up,
Over the last few months,
And dont look to be starting a new up-leg.

Many double tops and other topping formations present.

Hard to believe that another leg up,
As large as the last one is expected.

Aussie gold stocks

Oz gold index plus gold - 40, 20, 10 week m/a's

Dow/Gold ratio

Sorry was off doing charts.
My ICQ# 11918936
Still looking around the program - wondering?

(Sat May 02 1998 10:26 - ID#410114)
Canadian Dollar and gold
I had been wary of the recent rise in gold due to the lack of confirmation by the Canadian $. Prior to golds last rise the C$ dollar went from below .69 to almost .71. Since that level was reached, the C$ has been in a sharp sell off with which I think, was a tip off that gold would not hold or add to its gains.

(Sat May 02 1998 10:33 - ID#57232)
Thoughts while waking up - up late pondering mysteries of universe
APH: Thanks for your insight -- somehow you see the future better than many of us -- and we learn from you -- probably more from your miscalls than the right ones. There is no way you could have anticipated a european CB gold sale, which we now know could extend to June 1998 or later.

I too saw the explosive rise in select energy, but failed to put my Fidelity funds in it -- too worried that 'Ping II' might worsen. I only bought sp-500 June calls instead. If you had 70% of your 403b ( 401k ) in Fid select energy services you must have done very well. I think what is happening is that the 'smart money' is buying energy stocks either in anticipation of a Saddam confrontation later this year, or a fall in the dollar. Both bullish for gold -- just postponed!

RJ, Mike Sheller: Glad you enjoyed the physics post. I made one little error, which I need to correct. The inverse of plank's constant is not in units of energy or frequency. The resonance phenomenon, if it exists, is probably near the annihilation frequency of the electron -- about 512 kilo electron volts in energy terms. That is in the Xray range, and highly toxic to humans. Perhaps one can use two ( or multiple ) lower freqeuncy laser beams and drive the process nonlinearly.

Mike: I always enjoy your posts, even if I do not understand them. The feeling is mutual I think. There are some analogies, I think. First, one can consider matter as little balls sitting on a vast 'membrane' of zero point energy, which links all matter in the universe together. The ZPE is probably the source of all matter in the universe -- chaos theory applies here too! So even matter itself was probably created as a critical point fluctuation when conditions of the universe were just right. So our earth is a little island of energy ( mass ) which distorts the ZPE around us -- the space around us. The radiation pressure of the ZPE may be what pushes matter together -- what we call gravity.

RJ -- I think we will find the distortion of the ZPE by matter is what makes space curved. If we can break our link with the ZPE ( the fabric of space? ) , we can probably 'hop' around to anywhere or perhaps anywhen in the Universe. Yes -- I do suspect that Hannes Alfven was on the right track. To bad it was not accepted.

There is a time for everything, as a song begins -- as we very well know -- for gold too. That time I look forward to, with both trepidation and excitement.

(Sat May 02 1998 10:35 - ID#288156)
Mike Sheller--Direct Hit--LOL
When Blanche Dubois said in the play, "I have always depended upon the kindness of strangers," I didn't, at 17, understand what she meant. I was too naive to understand the discreet allusion to prostitution...

(Sat May 02 1998 10:37 - ID#230244)
A pleasant surprise this morning while looking over my portfolio, Pegasus the dog of all dogs, a month late but paid up the interest due April 2/98 on it convertible bonds. Hope patience plus the Belgian banker who was quoted yesterday "The Belgian bank will not sell its gold." to bad he was day late.After the rain sunshine.

(Sat May 02 1998 10:39 - ID#284255)
EJ - connectivity and the human interface?
Don'y know if you've read any of Ed Meagher's work.
He thoughts are along the same line.

Also more articles here;

Y2K and City Infrastructure
A Case Study of the Greater London Area

7 ) The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will keep the markets and the High St. Banks closed until all major players are operating and have performed street wide verification tests.

-- I have seen statements alluding that if the interbank markets are shut down for a week or two that they could implode.

(Sat May 02 1998 10:43 - ID#411149)
All- Did anyone get it figured out WHO THE REAL VICTIM WAS FROM THE BOJ???

John Disney- thanks for your input!!! Looks like I will be FORCED
to become a trader with these gold shares. I got DD @ 1.50-2.25 and
Harmony @ 4. This past week DD got to 3 5/8 and Harmony kissed 6.
Hard choice.


Tally Ho

(Sat May 02 1998 10:45 - ID#57232)
sharefin -- I agree with you
It is hard to believe that the US markets can keep going up. But predicting that fateful moment is nearly impossible, because it is difficult to guage the mania that can keep pushing prices into the stratosphere. What I have learned the hard way is that the only time that is 100% predictable is that of a ping or correction. It is much easier to make money long guessing when the market rebounds after a ping, than it is waiting for the ping that doesn't come when you expect it. I wish I learned that lesson years ago.

So -- there is something to be said for those dipsters, because a nimble dipster can even make money in a bear market - most of the time. But I am talking about dipsters who do not buy and hold. There will be one day when this 'in and out after dips' approach does not work, but that is a very rare occasion indeed. We will probably have more of these dips before the 'big one'. You can have most of your money 'parked' in short term treasuries or other conservative sources where it is safe.

Steve - Perth__A
(Sat May 02 1998 11:08 - ID#284170)
Bank of Japan Suicide
From Steve Blizard ICQ#11925719

5/2/98 -- 4:57 AM
Japan's Central Bank chief director commits suicide

TOKYO ( AP ) - Saying he was ``at the limit,'' a top executive in charge of efforts to root out corruption at Japan's scandal-plagued central bank hanged himself today, the latest suicide in a widening probe.
The Bank of Japan's chief director, Takayuki Kamoshida, 58, was found hanging from a nylon cord in a Tokyo apartment early this morning, a police official said on condition of anonymity.
A note found in the apartment said: ``I'm tired. I'm at the limit.''
Kamoshida, who is not known to be under investigation himself, was the central bank's top manager, ran anti-corruption efforts there and was in charge of punishing errant employees, national broadcaster NHK said.
``He had an important role in the new BOJ. It is truly regrettable,'' Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto was quoted as saying by Kyodo News agency. ``I really hoped he would work for the new BOJ.''
In March, Japan's financial world was shaken when a corruption probe into the powerful bureaucracy reached the Bank of Japan. A bank official was arrested for allegedly accepting bribes from financial institutions.
Last month, the central bank punished 98 employees who were found to have been wined and dined by financial institutions.
The central bank - known in Japan as the ``bank of banks'' - had long been considered immune to scandal and had never before been under a criminal investigation. Former bank Gov. Yasuo Matsushita resigned to take responsibility for the scandal.
The suicide was the latest in a series of scandal-related deaths in Japan. Others who have killed themselves in recent months include a lawmaker, a Finance Ministry bureaucrat and a highway authority official.
Japanese bureaucrats long have accepted expensive gifts from private companies. Many of the bribery charges and penalties stemmed from late-night dining and drinking sessions that have been a traditional part of doing business in Japan.
However, government officials are increasingly being prosecuted for accepting bribes as Japan strives to deregulate its financial sector and reform its bureaucracies.
Japan has a long tradition of using suicide as a way to take responsibility for - or escape from - disgrace or failure.
As Japan's economy struggles, suicides by private sector executives have also surged. The number of corporate suicides in 1996 - the latest figures available - rose by 16 percent from the previous year, according to national police figures.
Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(Sat May 02 1998 11:18 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - EJ
Good Post, I can second most of your points as a computer geek in the business, although the only 250./hr. I have seen is in SAP consulting.
You are right many companies think they can replace legacy systems with client/server in a short time - dream on my friends - and im speaking first hand. We have been replacing such a system now for 2 years and it's way behind schedule and over budget but it should be done this year - took 3 years !
Head hunters are calling me from the US and they sound pretty desperate but im not returning their calls as im stuck in a job right now and the offers aren't sweet enough.
This is inthe USA where the problems is maybe 1/5 th of what it is in europe. Europe will crash if those idiots don't get their act together now.
If im right, I will probably take a contract in europe late this year at unheard of rates. Basically they will have to pay whatever it takes to get experienced people there to avoid disaster, and I will be naming the price. If not then I will work here comfortably and watch them sink.
Blair in England thinks he can train an army of programmers to tackle the problem in two months - this is more rediculous than $50,000 Gold.
I have 20 + years of experience and im still learning new things every day.
It just shows the lack of knowledge and denial of the Y2K problem by the very people in power who will make or break the this unfolding disaster.
The key is the highest bidders will get the critical people that will save the companies from a nightmare............

(Sat May 02 1998 11:21 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
I received a flyer from someone called Alphee Lavoie who is going to make me rich with his market timing program that tracks the planets. Do you know of him?

(Sat May 02 1998 11:23 - ID#284255)
JTF - Dow stocks through the roof?
I'm not disputing a new rally - leg up.
I'm just sitting on the fence watching. ( :- )

I just find it hard to think that we will see a repeat performance of this last rally.
Many of these stocks look like they are peaking\have peaked on short term cycles.
Chartwise they don't look like they can extend without going into a chaotic blow-off.
If they were to have a breather for a few months, maybe it would fit in with time and price.
The last leg from 7800 to 9300 was approx 19%.
To leg up now from 8900 tp 1000 would represent another 12%.

And then the European indices are another question?
And what of Asia slipping into another dive?

Oldman's comments about how his triggers were showing the strongest signals in two years, fit in with many other indicators.
The McClennan Oscillator is showing extreme readings.
Strange how these indicators are showing such readings when the markets have only fallen a tad - volatility?

I feel in the case of a crash many of these indicators will have no meaning.
They will be valueless in trying to pick the point before the crash.
They are already shouting out their warning signals.
The next few months will tell the story.

We will wait and watch together, yes?

(Sat May 02 1998 11:24 - ID#348286)
@ROB - Gold & C$
Good point, I have also noticed this general correlation emerge in the past. The C$ seems undervalued though if you look at the fundamentals. It should easily be worth 75 cents but is being kept down for unkown reasons ( trade ? ) .

(Sat May 02 1998 11:27 - ID#57232)
Weak pattern in DOW stocks
sharefin -- Your sharp eyes caught this too. The Worden Brothers also noted that many of the DOW flagships looked weak, also, and stated the very same thing that you have said -- beware!

I think what has lead to the rapid recovery of the markets this time is the very strong computer stock rally. The real flagships are the computer and high technology stocks -- not the DOW stocks. I think the Achilles heel of the US markets will be whether this rally can continue to buoy the rest of the markets.

Do you know if the book to bill ratio is heading up? Perhaps the computer stock rally is imaginary, too. Is there really a market anymore for all of these computers outside the US? Is Europe really in a recovery mode, and getting ready to buy more computers/etc? Just saw a Pentium II 233 with 32mb ram, 6gig hard disk, 15" monitor and 56 k modem for $899 US! Doesn't look like computer prices are rising to me.

(Sat May 02 1998 11:40 - ID#57232)
Just saw your response. Thanks!
sharefin: No matter what happens, I will look forward to sharing the future with you. Your posts/graphs/poetry are a constant highlight of Kitco. Perhaps the collective Kitco experience will allow us to predict better in the future. I would like a breakthrough with the Wavelet analysis -- but I am split in too many directions to move quickly. I would love to get Oldman back in the loop so he could tell us more tidbits. Still haven't figured out how to automate his last one.

My Worden stock database only costs $1/day for unlimited downloads, but it has no options and futures prices. Haven't dived into the more expensive Worden Windows version. Intraday data, but $2/day instead. I also use Telescan for intraday data ( options and futures included ) - but no automated downloading available. It would be nice to consolidate with a full service downloader. Hard to beat Telescan ( the net version ) as it allows you to search all stocks and options/futures all over the world. Pretty good for 1.50/day.

Big Time Tom
(Sat May 02 1998 11:45 - ID#212320)
RJ and the scarcity of gold
RJ: Over the past 24 hours, you have made, as I see it, a number of excellent points. But in the middle of the night, while most of us were either partying or sleeping, you wrote something that raises a question in my mind: "There is more gold in the vaults today," you said, "than at any time in history. Gold becomes Less scarce every year."

Now in one sense this is an obvious truism. Unless we were to load gold into space ships and send it off planet, there could hardly be *less* gold above ground today than in previous centuries. Similarly, despite desperate food shortages in some places and the perishable nature of food, the world's total food supply could hardly be *smaller* today than in previous centuries. But then again, there are a lot more people in the world today as well. So my question is this: If you took the total quantity of the world's gold supply at the present time and divided it by the number of people in the world, would the result be that we now have more gold per person or less than we had in previous centuries?

I have no idea what the answer is. Nor would I use the answer to try to predict the price of gold, especially over the short run. But the question does underscore the point that "scarcity" is a relative term, as I'm sure you would agree."


(Sat May 02 1998 11:46 - ID#340459)
@MoReGoLd - The Canadian Dollar is low because they Sold much Gold. Look at SWFR
Does any one know saturday HK Gold prices..?

(Sat May 02 1998 11:48 - ID#254112)
@Gianni Dioro (Your post from May 1,98 at 18:26)
A war of the Dynasties ?

Date: Fri May 01 1998 18:26
Gianni Dioro__A ( JTF and all, Gold Selling ) ID#384350:

-You wrote:

"Gold selling by CB's is desperation, either by the CB that sells or by someone else who tells the CB to sell....." and "....Govt debt levels are so high that in some countries, ever larger portions of that nation's production will equate to interest on the debt. With Govt defaults looking more and more probable, maybe that is why we have seen a concerted effort by world CB's to have low interest rates on Govt bonds. These low interest rates have also enabled most of these 11
Euro nations to meet Maastricht criteria on deficits.
The Rothschilds did not gain world dominance by selling its gold, definitely the contrary. They will never sell.
What we may be seeing is a battle between the Hatfield's and the McCoys ( Read: Rockefellers and Rothschild Dynasties ) .
This IMF vs BIS could be along these lines."

I immediately became very excited when I read your post.
Intuitively I have very similar suspicions, but I cannot prove it with hard evidence. I have the feeling Rockefellers have defeated the Rothschilds in the US and in the U.K. since quite a while.
But that would be only true if the Morgan group, which was originally the asset of the U.K. Rothschilds, have lost influence in the US, or have become absorbed by the Rockefeller empire.

During and after WWI the Morgan group became the dominant financial power house in the US, not at least because they gave themselves an anit-semitic image and therefore attracted the big business of the WASPs. The WASPs didn't know about the link between Morgan and Rothschild. And the Rothschild dynasty couldn't act openly in the US because of the WASPs and their bad reputation as ruthless jewish bankers. They had to hide behind the Morgans and Kuhn, Loeb & Company.

It is possible that the BIS is dominated by the Rothschild dynasties ( the French and English ) and what we are observing is truly a war between these two dynasties: the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds.
When the author Johnston states in the letter to his sons ( published at the golden-eagle site ) , that the BIS had two goals:
1 ) to destroy the Sowjet Union
2 ) to destroy the US$ as a reserve currency
then it makes perfect sense to associate the BIS and the new EURO with the Rothschild empire and the US$ with the Rockefeller empire.

Way back 1989/90 I was amazed when I observed Henry Kissinger hysterically travelling to Moskau when the Berlin Wall came down. He represents the Rockefeller camp. These Rockefeller strategists havn't digested until today that the bi-polaric power architecture to dominate the globe, broke down. Therefore, it was not the work of this camp, to destroy the one pilar, on which this architecture was built.

If these intuitive associations and assunptions are true, we will soon find ourseves in a financial war between the US and the Europe of the 11.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 02 1998 11:49 - ID#238295)
Sharefin: No one really knows how far this rally can go, but something in the Dow 9500-10,0000 range seems like a logical target

The real surpise will , I think, be the nature and speed of the ensuing decline. Almost everybody assumes there will be ample warning as in the summer of 1987 that things will be getting nasty. This is the false assumption that will trap the bulls in the end.

A bolt out of the blue crash with liquidity drying up from the first day is the most likely outcome the way I see it. Virtually no one expects this. Perhaps that is why it may well happen.

Debate on CB gold sales:

(Sat May 02 1998 11:54 - ID#57232)
Logging off for chores
sharefin: I think the problem with the swing charts and the lock-step analysis is that they describe some of the conditions necessary for a ping or crash, but not all of them ( the human element, perhaps? ) . Oldman alluded to this, as he said that his buy/sell indicators identified potential turning points, not real ones. I think he said that only 1/5 actually predicted something significant. Is there any way to get bid/asked data or market tick index data?

As one of my mentors has said, the opposite of imperfect is not necessarily perfect. We must use what we have to predict the future, but we must also be constantly watching for new ideas/concepts to improve our accuracy.

It is a place like Kitco where missing key elements in the investing 'equation' are likely to be found -- even if the application is not just to the gold markets -- which I think are the toughest of all in our recently deceased gold bear. But the potential rewards are there -- especially over the next few years.

Hope you have a good day. Beautiful blue skies where I am -- think I will watch the Red tailed Hawks catch the thermals on our local mini-mountain.

silver plate
(Sat May 02 1998 11:57 - ID#289466)
Big Time Tom (right on)
Not only are there more people ( and going up every day ) but many of these people are much wealthier than ever and can afford more gold.

Anybody can make broad sweeping statements to back up a point of view without evidence.

(Sat May 02 1998 11:58 - ID#284255)
JTF - more Charts
European indices

All of these indices seem stretched to the maximum.
They all will need a rest if they are to tackle another leg.

Nikkei and Hang Seng

These two indices seem to be weakening downwards - to new lows?

To my mind there is no way to rationalize these markets.
The mania has taken care of this.

All we can do is to recognize the stress periods
And act defensively during these time frames.
That ping#2 is upon us speaks volumes.
Until we are out of this time frame
And definatively on the next leg,
Be it up or down,
We are in a danger zone.
Whether we make it through to the next ping period -
Sept-Oct remains to be seen.

2am bbl

(Sat May 02 1998 12:13 - ID#290118)
Euro vs U.S. unemployment
sharefin on Sat May 02 1998 08:17 wrote:
"Unemployment still stalks Europe, despite the recent upturn. France and Germany have 12 and 11.5 per cent jobless respectively, but in eastern Germany and Spain it is higher still. Average Euroland unemployment is 11.9 per cent."
U.S. unemployment is what - maybe 4 or 5% depending on whose books you believe.
Why are not more jobs leaving the U.S. and going to Europe.
Would not some stability there ( if the Euro stays afloat ) cause migration of business and industry to Europe?

(Sat May 02 1998 12:15 - ID#57232)
The Rothschilds and the Rockefellers - logging off
Alberich: Your posts are interesting also. It does not surprise me that there could be a hidden tug of war between these two families.

With regard to the Rothschilds, I think the picture is clear. They are a major force behind the BIS, and are currently at odds with the IMF and the World Bank, under the control of those who prefer the status quo of fiat currencies. The IMF and the World Bank used to be nearly totally under the control of interests in the US, according to Antony Sutton. Some sort of debt the US had with the BIS ( Rothschilds ) enabled the BIS to force the US to give up on the 'Gold War' of the 60's and 70's.

I think SDRer's posts about the BIS ( Rothschilds ) setting up a bank in Hong Kong either indicates the frustration that the BIS has with European interests ( EURO ) , or the realization that the Chinese people value gold as much as they, or both. Ominous sign for fiat western currencies regardless. As to whether the Rockefellers are at odds with the Rothschilds and side with the IMF/world bank, I don't know. They both agree on the value of wealth preservation, so if the Rockeffellers are at odds because they are heavy into 'fiat' currency dealings in their public dealings, I would guess that their private assets are just as carefully protected as those of the Rothschilds.

Big Time Tom
(Sat May 02 1998 12:18 - ID#212320)
Yesterday, as the price of gold collapsed, Farfel posted the following:

farfel ( @BERNATZ, RJ, KARLITO, AND ALL THE REST.... ) ID#340302:

Thanks, my friends...a million thanks.


I look forward to next week.



I guess I don't get it, Farfel. I can understand why you might be happy that the price of gold fell. I was happy, for example, that I was able to buy WDEPY at 26 3/8 just one day after selling it at 28 1/8; I was also happy that I had previously shorted ECO, though I'm beginning to wonder whether I should have covered on Friday. What baffles me, however, is why you would thank Hepcat, RJ, Karlito, and other posters here for this drop in the price. Do you really believe that these guys have that much power over the gold market?--or that they are responsible for what happened on Friday?


(Sat May 02 1998 12:19 - ID#26669)
Why the archaic belief in gold as a medium of exchange?
I think it was maybe 6 months ago I mentioned this idea the last time. But IMHO gold is still the most 'efficient' proxy for weapons in the world. From ancient times of Xerxes, Caesar and Sun Tzu to the present century the cost of maintaining armies has been traditionally a gold cost. IMHO

I'll admit that some countries maintain their armies on basis of other commodities, like the Indochinese Karen tribe and its heroin trade or the US dependance on its uranium/plutonium leverage but this is not the norm. Paper is fine for peaceful transactions but when you're talking about warfare I doubt that any banker will consistantly loan on basis of anything except hard metal. Which is as it should be for it tends to reduce the frequency of big wars to a minimum. IMHO

(Sat May 02 1998 12:34 - ID#290118)
debt money & the universe
Insight of comparison -
There is much credence to the idea that matter and energy in our universe sums to zero. Oversimplified it may be thought that for every antimatter atom there was also created a matter atom.
Steve in TO__A on Sat May 02 1998 08:16 wrote:
"Remember, though, that this money began its life as a computer entry at the central bank, and first appears as an asset to the central bank and a liabilty to the borrowing bank."
Debt money too is a zero sum game.
The only "money" that is not is a valued commodity, i.e. GOLD.
I know not why this similarity was not obvious to me before.
Any thoughts?

(Sat May 02 1998 12:36 - ID#371200)
I know this is a PM sight,but it is Saturday afternoon, so what the heck.
I have most of my portfolio in PM shares.MAN.TO,PAASF,SSRIF,GEO,HRG and others.Since these have been rather tame for the past two years I'm thinking of going into some Y2K companies. I believe that we have yet to see the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this problem.Does anyone have any favorite Y2K stocks that they would like to share. I've done some DD,but am not all that familiar with the industry.Regards.

(Sat May 02 1998 12:43 - ID#243226)
President ECB
The new president for European Central Bank is from
Netherlands.He has been nominated for eight years but he will
leave the presidence before the eight years term.After his
departure in a few years,a French,name unknown for now,will take the presidence.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 02 1998 12:45 - ID#24135)
for alberich ..
A delayed action second to mike's
comment. Your 08:36 was very good.

For steve in to
Yes .. When I say "print the money"
I really mean create the money out
of thin air. Since Government expenditures
exceed tax revenues continually..
it seems as if the entire bond sales
and subsequent repayment at maturity
with interest ... ultimately facilited by
"creating" the money to do just that simply
provides a sanitizing step in the process of
creacting the money to cover the shortfall
in the first place ( god that's involuted ) .

(Sat May 02 1998 12:50 - ID#26669)
servehard re glory post
That was a nice pic of the corona. Here are some pretty gold pics, but admittedly from a weird website.

But I'm sorry, you'll have to drink all your beer yourself! We don't believe in palladium at our house, that evil, capitalist stuff! We threw all our palladium in the river along with our gun, sports utility vehicle, bibles and Ronald Reagan campaign buttons. Scratch the river. Meant to say a sealed sanitary landfill with adequate environmental care. ;^ )

(Sat May 02 1998 12:54 - ID#36965)
For Ted
Ted, I tried to send my mailman to your box but he was bitten by your dog. Do you have a new email address or something? Send me your address to and I'll send this message along shortly.

(Sat May 02 1998 12:54 - ID#340459)
@TJK - Unsolicited Advice
Y2K good companies with potential is Computer Horizions CHRZ, Keane KEA, InterSolv ISLI, ViaSoft, Data Dimensions DDIM, I Think...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 12:55 - ID#384350)
Alberich, Bipolarity
A friend of mine who is a bit of a cynic believes that the world populace is destined for Orwellian slavery. He thinks the reason the World Govt hasn't created a disaster, and swept in with Martial law to date is because there is division in the factions up top between the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds.

This Feuding reminds me of a newsletter I received a year ago which commented on the new independence of the tiny Nation of Andorra. They said that they believed the integrity and prosperity of the nation had previously been assured by its dual monarchy. Andorra used to be tokenly ruled by Spain and France. For the last several years it has become an independent state, has been increasing govt debt, is having cash-flow problems, and is looking to increase taxes. Spain is trying to impose Andorra to pay unemployment benefits to seasonal workers who are Spanish nationals. It appears losing this bipolarity is doing more harm than good.

Also, I said that it was not in the nature for the Rothschilds to sell gold. It is however their nature to lend it out. Note they almost always get it back with interest ( in gold ) plus other war booty.

(Sat May 02 1998 12:55 - ID#26669)
correction, those pics are of silver and base metal
and BTW, I have no fiduciary or other relationship with that website, lest someone and their lawyer get the hankering to kiss my donkey this fine sunny Saturday. Here's another link with a website with several pages of coin pics. Same disclaimer.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:04 - ID#290118)
Fed debt
Tamerlane__A ( on Sat May 02 1998 ) 06:37 wrote:
"In a situation where the budget was balanced, for the government to pay off interest in Fed Notes....I'm thinking that it would effectively retire so much US debt, would decrease the money supply and credit and contract the US economy ( burst the bubble ) ....I can't wrap my mind around it...easy way out, yes, but it's still workers day over here. Hittin' the sack."
In the analogy earlier re universal zero sum game.
Zeroed out the debt would take a lot of circulating "money " with it.
Thanks everyone for the insights.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:08 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro
Tell your cynic friend to rethink those thoughts. First off, dont forget, these power mongers bleed also. In addition the firepower one individual can carry is devastating. In a world that is burning who wins?

We are about to embark on a journey into a new era, but it will not be one of tyranny.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:08 - ID#288157)
Why is gold production the economic activity apart?
Oh my, this IS confusing! Gold producers are obviously the most socially conscious businessmen existent. Or they have no consciousness at all. Or ...?

RJ says of gold, The problem with gold is that there is just so damn much of it.
[MY CONFUSION: When there is  so damn much of something, the balance of nature normally works to reorder the supply. But the paper market is not allowing the supply to be reordered! Because it allows an over abundant commodity to be sold at too high a price.

RJ says: Many mines, who would have otherwise closed, have kept their doors open because of forward sales. These mines may be delivering gold they were paid $380 for. [MY CONFUSION: Forward sales allow producers to sell gold for $380 when the spot price is $280. This is NOT an efficient market. This IS an efficient market?]

RJ says, The smaller and unprofitable, will be absorbed into the lager and profitable. This is the food chain. [MY CONFUSION: There is too much of their product, and they make no move to absorb the excess-capacity producers, moth-ball their mines, and limit the market supply. Why is this business so different in its business practices? Banks are an anachronism that are merging to a sustainable level. Why havent there been MINE CLOSURES over the last decade, in an on-going, systematic way? There is so much gold. Somebody should have passed THAT message along. The MARKET should have passed that message along.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:14 - ID#31868)
according to J. Blanchard ( Gold Newsletter) there
is a forty year supply of gold. He says without question gold is the only real money on the planet.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 13:18 - ID#384350)
Squirrel, Euroland Unemployment and the Euro
While unemployment is truly high in France and Germany ( Euroland's most important economies ) , unemployment in states like Spain, Italy, and Ireland is overstated as the "black" or underground economy is relatively large.

Govts are trying to flush out some of this cash economy. Many European countries have recently issued new notes. Isn't it strange that they are creating new notes, all to supposedly be retired when the Euronotes come in 2002? Is this to force out the underground cash economy? Is it a psychological manoeuvre to get europeans to adjust to change?

Now, a Union of European Socialist States may compete with the USD as a reserve currency, however the fact that this new nation will have Big Burdensome Taxes, Huge Govt Debt, and High Unemployment portends to inherent longterm weakness in the Euro.

silver plate
(Sat May 02 1998 13:19 - ID#234253)
Forward sales
Anybody? If the spot gold price is $300, where do gold miners find buyers at $350 or so? And why do buyers pay "up" for an item that seems to be in surplus?

(Sat May 02 1998 13:25 - ID#371200)
Thanks for the info,much appreciated.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:29 - ID#153102)
Look at who endorsed your check for income tax which you made payable to IRS. This will answer a question about interest payment.

RJ still cannot grasp that you can never pay debt with debt. Or that all the little digital entries are measures of debt. Or than debt is a burden. Or that debt is risk. This is good. If it were not so, he would not exchange gold for paper. I hope his thinking never advances any further than where it is.

The word "shall" does not mean what you think it means when it is used in an American statute. Refer to a legal dictionary to understand the significance of words in statutes.

The model for modern banking and finance ( Meyer's testimony ) looks to me to be very similar to some popular notions of the way the universe works: no constants ( assets ) just risk management ( probabilities in equations ) with intervention by supervision to restore stochastic balance at another level. I observe that at every new level of apparent equilibrium there is less morality and more moral hazard. This is predictable in a world ruled by people who deny there is any knowledge except according to their self-serving definition of "scientific". Where there is no moral knowledge there is no moral authority. There is none in the world of the elite. Can such people long govern dummies like me ? Or even themselves ?

Dynastic fortunes are primarily concerned with the preservation of the fortune and its increase. Alberich seems to be in a thinking mode which may lead him to conclude there are US and Euro branches of the NWO. Like the journalist Barry Chamish postulated in a post about the travels of Netanyahu which I put up a whole back. The proper framework for understanding these times is not, I think, in terms of family dynasties ( though no doubt a good factual story can be told along those lines ) . It is rather that IMF is an internationl legal creation serving primarily the national interests of the bankrupt USG and BIS is a solvent international legal creation securitized with gold and serving the interests of shareholder members in keeping international trade up and running.

It is kind of sobering to reflect that BIS may be the only solvent institution in the whole world.

People have posted "Why and where is gold money ? I have never used gold as money." This is like unto a soviet citizen of yore saying "what is property ? I have never had any." Without gold, none of the terms or forms of law and finance have any meaning. Where it matters to governments, they still have meaning. Everything else is to dupe the man on the street. Federal Reserve Notes are legal fictions; they are literally Notes for Nothing. Only the ignorant think they are more than that. The incontrovertible proof that gold is money is that it is in banks. That is why the phrase "Central Bank sales of gold" has such significance. It implies gold is not money. But, before accepting the propaganda of that phrase wholeheartedly, I suggest looking to see who is on the other side of these CB sales of gold. If it is another bank, gold is still money. When banks empty their vaults of gold with sales of it for paper held in the lobby of the bank, you can conclude gold is not money.

In the meantime, foresight as to the consequences of "no happy ending for Japan" should in my opinion occupy our minds.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:36 - ID#288156)
Ahhhh Mozel, that was so good...
Now I can enjoy my weekend. Thank you. {:- )

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 13:38 - ID#384350)
Tolerant1, Tyranny
I hope you're right, but I fear if you are wrong. All signs point to greater tyranny.

Did you know in the US and UK, computers and surveillance cameras are being used to digitally identify individuals and match their biological data instantly to a database? In the UK this program is called Mandrake.

It can be used in Airports, ATM's, Supermarkets etc. You're whereabouts can be constantly monitored.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:39 - ID#256250)
mozel, SDRer, tolerlant1, THANKS for the sanity.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:42 - ID#410215)
..... Shotgun Replies, then to the beach where thongs abound .....

Big Time Tom -

You do have a very good point. I also do not know the answer to that one. I will think on it a bit.

Steve in Perth -

TOKYO ( AP ) - Saying he was "at the limit,'' a top executive in charge of efforts to root out corruption at Japan's scandal-plagued central bank hanged himself today, the latest suicide in a widening probe.

This behavior is to be encouraged. The world would be a prettier place indeedy if highly ranked officials, when caught red handed, to simply remove themselves from the equation.

Boardreader -

You too have a point. Where is this standard made, though? I have written on these pages before, no note is backed by anything, gold included, unless you can lay down the note and receive the gold in return. Anything else is smoke and mirrors.

Steve in TO -

Your 8:16 - Excellent post.

Mr. Mick -

While palladium has held, Platinum is the surrogate for palladium. Both will rise, platinum will stay high, while palladium will be consigned to the dustbin of history ( I know that is a quote from someone, who? ) as consumers move back into platinum because of availability. Norilsk ore is depleted. This is big news.

Mike Sheller wrote:

The supposition now is that there is some form of matter out there in the "empty" space previously thought void, and that this matter is in some way responsible for certain manifestations "out here." I rest my case.

I think you have grasped the core of the matter. Or maybe the core of the mass. Perhaps the core of the energy? Wait.. they are all the same thing..


A trader of great renown one told me that in his most profitable year ever, he was wrong on almost 80% of his trades. The trick is not to be always right, but to recognize a looser and dump it for small losses rather than go down with the ship. You know this well, so I will hold forth no further on this.

You have a keen eye, and are courageous to continually post your strategy on these pages. You're long term success is assured, as you recognize what IS.

Alain__A ( President ECB ) ID#243226:

The new president for European Central Bank is from Netherlands.

A recent gold seller, yes?


(Sat May 02 1998 13:52 - ID#273227)
some questions on a few posts
RJ 5/1 16:02 wrote :

The action you see in platinum is because even the largest funds are afraid of palladium.

Platinum is the surrogate. There are no palladium supplies. What would you do if you had to

deliver June palladium, but you could find none? Would not your only choice be to go to the

platinum market? Would this not be the only proper hedge against a palladium short? Mysterious,

nonexistent, and completely imaginary but highly placed insiders think the answers to many of

the questions are, yes?

The action I see in Platinum is that it has dropped +$20 in the last couple of weeks. So someone is shorting Pl? How is a Pl short be the proper hedge against a Pd short? Does anyone understand this arguement?

Spock 5/2 00:31 - you just figured this out?

themissinglink 5/2 01:51 - Last Wednesday I know some traders who would of liked some shares of KTEL. They ended up getting them only after a $15-$20 rise. To pay $46 for a stock that could had under $4 a week earlier is tough to swallow. ... It was a short squeeze that worked.

mozel 5/2 01:55 - I played golf 2 Sunday's ago with a farmer. He had just sold $5 milllion dollars of lettuce. He took Sunday off as a reward. We discussed the finanical part of farming for most of the afternoon. My understanding was that EVERYTHING is forward sold before it is planted today. The most desirable forward sale it to 1 level befor the end user, in the lettuce case a big local food store. A regional distribution center was the next more desirable buyer, the futures market was the last option.

RJ: 5/2 02:49 - The current trend of 'money' does seem to be going away from heavy gold. Technology has done this to many things, making them smaller, lighter, more portable. Who would expect that 'money' would be exempt from these advancements? I wouldn't.

Assuming the above, then the next question that needs to be asked is what going to be the next form of money? What will the next evolution of 'money' be? I think this is what Another is predicting. If one was to be strong believer in the Circle Theory of all things always end up back where they started, I can understand the following he has.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:53 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro - two items
1 ) Leave the swine to their devices and seek out other countries where this is not so. People vote with their feet all the time.

2 ) Americans can and have been some of the most vicious terrorists in history. This upcoming century may be marked with those things as the government tries to flex its stupidity. The government in the nineties still has various murders to answer for, these things have not been forgotten.

There are many who have been trained, Green Berets, Seals, 83rd, that do not take kindly to the government in the District of Columbia. Believe me, you piss off enough of those boys and you would be amazed what 36 motivated people could do to shut down the USA. I would imagine they would go after the electic grid first. Read - Brittle Power by Hunter and Amory Lovins.

Threatening a man and his family is no way to motivate compliance.

(Sat May 02 1998 13:53 - ID#26669)
One of those links I just HAVE to share
Too bad it is related to gold investing only from the viewpoint of ancient coins and artifacts! Perhaps the Y2K nuts will get some ideas for post apocalyptic culture?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 13:59 - ID#384350)
Your points are well taken.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:00 - ID#410215)
..... ? .....

SDRer -

Is your post entirely serious? You know the answers to all those questions. Gold was $380 last year. A producer who sold for delivery then would now, a year later, be delivering $280 gold he was paid $380 for.

As for so damn much of it, As I said last night, one may never corner a market not in fundamental shortage. ( the post actually read, "storage" this was a function of my spell checker and my bleary eyes conspiring against me ) This means NO stockpiles to go to. If a supply remains anywhere on earth, rises in prices will have a top. Sooner or later, a holder of a commodity looks at the lofty prices and decides he wants a piece of that action. If he has the gold, he can sell it.

This is why I trade platinum so much. We have removed this threat of capping off a rally, because the metal is not in sufficient enough supply to do so.

Forward sales and hedging will continue as long as there is a market. A proper understanding of why this is good and so must be had before anybody may approach the truth of these markets.


(Sat May 02 1998 14:02 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro
Now, promise me, where ever you are. Go out side, or just cast open a window and marvel at that which is the wonder and beauty of life, while there is breath, the glass is always half full my friend.


(Sat May 02 1998 14:07 - ID#273227)
RJ - PL vs PD

RJ - Reading your post a few minutes ago, sounds more like you then the one from yesterday that I just posted.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 14:09 - ID#384350)
Will do.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:11 - ID#410215)
..... This is a good question .....

Kudson -

Platinum is in ready enough supply to force the weak money out before a sustained rise. As the futures price of palladium rises limit traders, locked out of the market turn to platinum to cover losses in palladium. The percentages have been way out of whack of late. But you will see this occur. Lease rates for platinum are still relatively low, while they are prohibitive in palladium. Any shorting has occurred in platinum, that is why palladium has held but platinum has fallen. This not only points to zero weakness in the platinum markets, but these shorts must be covered. By June. Not much time, yes?

The drop in price in platinum has me giddy as a goldbug at under $300 per ozer.

I will buy all I can here, for the horizon is filled with ups.

Uh Huh

(Sat May 02 1998 14:14 - ID#273227)
i agree
Yes, I agree and have been also buying this past week. I am looking forward to nice summer off again, this one paid for by platinum.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:15 - ID#26793)
All: I need some help with these questions.
We know that Japan sold US$21 billion during April in support of the yen. It did not work. They have $300 billion left.

Why did they sell dollars to buy yen instead of print them?

Do they really want a stronger yen?

Why do they want a stronger yen?

Who sold them the yen?

What did they do with the yen when they got them?

Is there any other way to meet their objective?

(Sat May 02 1998 14:15 - ID#153102)
Planting, raising, or making according to contract negotiated in advance is akin to cost plus government work. It is essentially risk free provided the other side of the contract is solvent and trustworthy. A lot of chickens come to market that way. I'm sure a lot of vegetable produce does as well. It is a kind of vertical integration without vertical investment. You can think everything is done this way if you like. But, when government is on the other side of the hedge, it is a subsidy. Conveying that point was the purpose of my illustration.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:19 - ID#273227)
I agree with the conclusion, I didn't understand the whys. Usually I find it better if I don't understand the whys. I have a habit of talking myself into or outof to many trades by knowing the whys.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:22 - ID#273227)
mozel -
I have to leave - won't be back until tomorrow, early morning. Thanks for your reply, I would like to expand/learn on it.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:23 - ID#26793)
Clue #1. Yen weakness widespread on rumors of Chinese devaluation.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:26 - ID#26793)
Clue #2. Yen weak vs: dollar as Japanese household spending drops 5.7%

(Sat May 02 1998 14:26 - ID#410215)
..... RJ got ALL the Yen .....


I have all these Yen.

Got it all in storage sheds sprinkled throughout the South land, there resting quietly with the enormous stockpile of platinum I liberated from a couple of bumbling KGB operatives last summer. The stern visage of the Czar stares up at the Yen blanketing and keeping MY platinum warm till it rises and I take enormous profits.

I will then and use it all to sell gold into the dirt.

Uh Huh

(Sat May 02 1998 14:31 - ID#26793)
I am not sure what my point I have in asking those questions. I am truly confused. I get the feeling that world leaders don't know what they want. They have not established objectives, even within countries. They seem to act at cross purposes. They appear confused, disoriented; or is it just me?

(Sat May 02 1998 14:41 - ID#153102)
It is quite confusing.

I think repatriated yen are going into Japanese banks.

The way I make sense of it is like this. In the Japan-USA trade tango, Japan was never accumulating wealth but was only accumulating the debt instruments of a bankrupt trading partner. How can the nation that has accumulated the most debt of another nation be called a creditor nation ? Well, they can be called that by Keynsian's who don't know solvent from insolvent, but it won't bank. Because it won't bank, Japan is having trouble getting credit.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:48 - ID#26793)
Then you think they just make government deposits at needy Japanese banks and hope that the bankers will lend them to borrowers who need to borrow to stay alive? Could be. The Fed did the similar in 1930's but the bankers were afraid to lend anyway. The money just sat there until after the war.

(Sat May 02 1998 14:52 - ID#26793)
Clue #3. Japan has an obligation to prepare a yen settlements system (for Asia?

(Sat May 02 1998 14:54 - ID#238295)
Another: I thought the BIS was supposed to push gold into a $320-360 trading range. Yet we have fallen to $302. What gives?

(Sat May 02 1998 14:59 - ID#252127)
The whole globe has been accumulating the debt of a bankrupt trading partner.

Mozel: Good statement, bet they are going to love us when the soft wet manure hits the fan. Splush, splush wack, ug, ug.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:01 - ID#57232)
China, Japan and South Korea crisis worsening? -- thanks Vronsky -- logging off for son.
Donald: Glad you're posting. I just got an e-mail alert fron Vronsky. John Kutyn just posted a May 1, 1998 page on golden-eagle, suggesting that things were getting worse, not better in China, Japan and South Korea. The bottom line is the following:

1 ) South Korea is in deep trouble to the tune of about 650-700 billion US$ in addition to the external debt addressed by the IMF. ( from Korea Development institue ) . Also, auto production plummeted 46.2% ( in March alone? ) , and manufacturing is as 65% capacity. JK thinks that there is no way that SK can address a debt of this magnitude, despite rising imports from 1997. This we knew was bad.

2 ) China's debt's are now estimated at $903 billion, with 30% non-performing. Much of this is in SOES, which probably does not concern the Chinese that much, though it would upset the foreign creditors, mostly Japan, Korea, and Europe, I think. What is worrisome is that inventories rose 14.2% in the first quarter, with industrial profits dropping 83%. According to JK, sales are falling over all of China.

JK mentions Cosco, Shanghai Industrial Investments, and Guandong Enterprises as companies seriously in trouble. I do not know if these are SOES, or if they are not. If they are representative of the private corporations, things are much worse than we thought. JK predicts China will crash due to crushing debt. I am not so sure, but a significant Chinese devaluation could hit Japan a staggering blow.

3 ) The most disturbing news of all is what JK said about Japan. According to JK, the combined income stats of all the companies on the Nikkei showed a net deficit for 1997. This alone does not worry me, as we know Japan was in trouble, and possibly bottoming. The markets should preceed the earnings reports. The problem is that the WPI was down 2.1% for the second 10 days in April compared to the previous year, while the Japanese were pouring cash into the markets/economy. JK mentions a figure of $780 billion in borrowed cash that Japan needs for 1998.

So Japan is desperately inflating the Yen, selling US dollars apparently to no avail. The US is probably inflating the dollar to keep the Yen/dollar ratio constant. I think we must assume that we may be months or less away from an international crisis, and scour the web for news.

Any news about China, South Korea, or Japan? I just had a very distrubing idea -- perhaps the reason the BIS is setting up an office in Hong Kong is not what we thought! Perhaps it is because the BIS knows that a world financial crisis is near, and wants to keep avenues of communication open with one of the major financial centers of the world. I prefer SDRer's reasons better. Mine is much too disturbing.


(Sat May 02 1998 15:01 - ID#26669)
Mozel, Kuston re forward selling
I once had a neighbor who raised corn. He sold it forward for the best prices he could get every year. He planted a little over 2 sections, roughly 1300 acres and since he was a serious, dedicated farmer he got federal crop insurance every year. He planted and fertilized then left the corn to wither away and die the first drought of the summer every year. As far as I knew he never made a harvest the 6 years I watched his crops come and go. Poor guy could never get into the land bank where he could get paid for not growing cotton. IMHO

He spent a lot of time hunting and fishing and probably voted the straight Democratic ticket, but he made a really good living nevertheless. IMHO

(Sat May 02 1998 15:02 - ID#238295)
Chinese devaluation
If rumors of a Chinese devaluation are true, the initial impact almost certainly will be negative for gold. Looking further out, this could be a strong positive to the extent that it accelerates a restructuring of the international monetary system.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:03 - ID#410215)
..... An Obscure Monty Python Song .....

There goes anOTHER one

There it goes aGIAN........

And now, truly, off to the beach.....


(Sat May 02 1998 15:05 - ID#252150)
How strong is the equities bull mkt?
It is so strong that a short seller jumped out of a window and went up!

(Sat May 02 1998 15:06 - ID#153102)
Yes, it's the pushing on a string situation. The phrase soldiers for socialism comes to mind. Can an army be an economy ?

Really, what I see is a world coming to grips with the fact there is no longer any creditor nation. The USG put forth the legal fictions in international law and via World Bank and IMF in support of the idea that it was the world's creditor nation and its tender ought to be the world's reserve currency. Well, a legal fiction won't work among sovereigns for long if at all. The instant the US reneged on greenback redeemability to gold, the world changed. Japan cannot be the world's creditor nation because it has only accumulated debt in exchange for goods. So, international trade is going to gold and the trade your nation can finance will be determined by the amount of gold it puts on the table to securitize its settlement risk. I think this is independent of the fate of the Euro, ultimately.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:11 - ID#57232)
Looks like you already have the financial bloodhounds out.
Donald: I must get off for my son, and to keep second phone line open. I think we really have to be on our toes now. A major China devaluation and/or Japan implosion would make sharfin's ping I in October look like a 'pop gun' Bearish for all equities, even precious metals. We probably will have a later 'run to safety in the US markets' if it happens. I fear we are repeating the 1925-1929 scenario, and the script is disturbingly similar. There is no way AG can raise rates with storm clouds like this. I will start looking for news also tonight.

Jin: Are you out there? Any economic news about Japan or China?

(Sat May 02 1998 15:13 - ID#26793)
We have had many singular posts here showing just that. John Kutyn has a nice way of weaving those details into a coherent essay. I will look for it.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:16 - ID#57232)
Couldn't resist! Signing off till tonight or tomorrow.
All: I will try to supply gravity nullifiers to all worried investors, as soon as they are available. But can't tell you whether they can be delivered before the falling begins. Unfortunately, although they are based on the 'virtual energy' of the ZPE, I doubt they will work directly on the 'virtual money' of the markets. Only people.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:26 - ID#342315)
Donald re XAU
I'm covered up. Did I post to you about a 5 min live XAU chart?

(Sat May 02 1998 15:30 - ID#342315)
JTF re Photons
How broad a range does your info have re photons? when you get back. Thanx charlie

(Sat May 02 1998 15:44 - ID#153102)
@Donald &JTF
The Arrow of Time.
HG Wells, proto intellectual of NWO, was the inventor - in fiction - of the time machine, a device which defied the Law of Nature. The Law of Nature is that the Arrow of Time goes in one direction only. The prospect of remaking human nature and escaping the Law of Nature was very exciting to intellectuals at the turn of the century.

The NWO of Socialism is a world of fiction. Science fiction, accounting fiction, economic fiction, and legal fiction. ( Puleesse don't throw up Heinlin. ) It's all about belief that mankind can escape the limits and boundaries of body and human nature and the Law of Nature on this planet. That is the vision that all true believers have in common. They fought in flesh and blood in this century over territory of the imagination, imaginary territory, in some future world of fiction. It was a religious movement as belief in evolution is a religious belief.

The phrase failure of Global Socialist Banking sponsored by the USG means there is no international monetary system. If you have something tangible, you have wealth. If you don't, you don't. Though the Law hath slept, it is not dead - ever.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:46 - ID#290118)
ZPG, cold fusion & Palladium

Dr. Eugene F. Mallove wrote an extensive science fact article in Analog Magazine last year on cold fusion. In his extensive bibliography he cites Cole and Puthoff in "Physical Review" and Eberlein in Physical Review Letters as sources for ZPG as the energy being tapped. One example reactive cell experiment that he cites had 1300 watts out for 1.4 watts in ( Rothwell, J. 'CETI's 1-Kilowatt Cold Fusion Device Demonstration' in "Infinite Energy" Vol 1, Nos 5&6, Nove 1995-=Feb 1996, pp 18-24 )

I can give you more citations etc. if you wish ( )

PALLADIUM is often used as the reactive medium.

Any developments in this field should interest PM traders.

Check out the cold fusion web site at

Thanks for the earlier posts.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:50 - ID#255190)

Possibly what they are looking for is stability. Reason: d-e-r-i-v-a-t-i-v-e-s and the chaos that would ensue if the Yen changed much in realtionship to the US$. Hong Kong aslo seems to value a stable relationship to the US$.

Just a few thoughts.

(Sat May 02 1998 15:59 - ID#31868)
The Python crushing the globe is the deflation coming out of asia,
nothing will stop it, nothing. In the United States this will be seen in a form as hyper-inflation, those without tangibles will end up with hands which are full of worthless paper.

Even if you do not buy into this scenario I would take seriously the Y2K problems looming on the horizon. Gold and silver will become money, defacto, I think is the word appropriate here.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:05 - ID#26793)
Yes. I have that chart. Thank you.

Tyler Rose
(Sat May 02 1998 16:06 - ID#373164)
ALL (re: IQC)
In order to try and evaluate the IQC that Bart introduced this a.m., I have downloaded and installed the program. However, I am unable to find any other kitcoites that have registered. Anyone going to do this?

Thanks, Tyler Rose

(Sat May 02 1998 16:08 - ID#153102)
How about Godzilla Pyton ?

It is bankruptcy that is out of Asia. X-flation ( In or De ) does not exactly capture the reality of Less Than Zero. Empty Belly come closer.

Tyler Rose
(Sat May 02 1998 16:11 - ID#373164)
Sorry, ICQ, not IQC

(Sat May 02 1998 16:12 - ID#26793)
If they want stability they might have used the $21 billion to buy physical gold through the BIS. Bet they paid more than the paper price. I wonder who in Japan would be permitted to make a decision like that? They do everything by committee. Seems as though we would have heard. With the MOF and BOJ in such a turmoil with scandal and suicide I really doubt that there is anyone in charge. I sense disorder and confusion. Things are out of control in Japan. They are letting the rest of the world badmouth them. Who speaks for Japan? Something is going to go Big Bang II.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:14 - ID#153102)
@A New History
A Short Version of a New History of the last half of the twentieth century might go like this. Americans went overseas and conquered foreign nations and brought their gold back to these shores. Then, they spent it.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:15 - ID#26793)
@Tyler Rose
I installed it. Not sure how to use it yet.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:17 - ID#26793)
@Mozel; new history corrected.
Then they spent it X 100.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:21 - ID#153102)
That's not a correction. That's the introduction to the longer version. ( BTW in my longer version 100 is not a great enough factor. )

Tyler Rose
(Sat May 02 1998 16:22 - ID#373164)
Couldn't find you using ICQ search engine, I'm registered as, if you can look for me.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:31 - ID#26793)
@Tyler Rose
OOPS! I am ( I think ) maybe I should reinstall.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:33 - ID#26793)
@Tyler Rose
Can't find you either.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:35 - ID#26793)
@JTF, Vronsky
I can't find the John Kutyn piece for May 1st.

Tyler Rose
(Sat May 02 1998 16:35 - ID#373164)
Bart re ICQ
Bart, I think I followed your directions on the ICQ business, but am having no success at finding fellow kitcoites. I registered as Tyler Rose with an e-mail address --- did I do it right, if you know?


(Sat May 02 1998 16:37 - ID#31868)
at golden eagle home page - 1st article in yellow box.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:39 - ID#290118)
Tolerant1 - Am I being overly paranoid or can we assume the USG ignores us lunatics on this forum and the net. Your comments re terrorism, murders, etc. give me cause to ask - do you trust those who read these posts? If I were to make a statement here saying I am going to shoot slick Willy - I would expect a visit within 24 hours.

To doomsayers in general:

What amazes me is the amount of dialogue going on all over the Net regarding economic collapse, Y2K, Euro-doom, etc. etc. etc. And I'm only counting the posts concerning potential threats that have real substantial basis for concern. I'm not counting meteor, comet, biblical or other prophecy associated postings ( which may also be real threats ) .

QUESTION: Are all these "substantiated" threats also figments of imaginations? Was there any comparable dialogue on such pending economic doom in the late twenties - or is this level of foresight and dialogue a new thing under the sun? Given that even a third of these threats actually come to pass - are those in a position to do something criminally negligent for sitting on their hands? Or are the doing the best but the oncoming freight is just too huge to stop.


If this is so - then I'm getting the h*** out of paper and into commodities delivered into my hands. Be it canned beans, bags of rice, dried eggs, guns, ammo, and GOLD & SILVER coins -- I wan't it on my floor where I can see it and sleep with it - not in the form of gold or wheat futures. PULEESE TELL ME I'M A RAVING LUNATIC!

(Sat May 02 1998 16:39 - ID#31868)
mozel, ah, to make something better is an art, gulp, here's to ya.
Now, onto how Americans can take America back. If all Americans would buy gold and silver, thus taking away the governments life blood as well as the bankers, the government and the banks would collapse under their own weight.

Alas, they do not have the will, they want their MTV!

(Sat May 02 1998 16:44 - ID#26793)
@Tyler Rose
Just re-read Barts instructions. He said to use Sam posted that won't work and said would work. Guess we should wait for Bart.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:47 - ID#45173)
@MoReGoLd, Sharefin, TJK, Midas
MoReGoLd, you're right that $250 is steep but it is so; my friend is many things but not a liar. I'm have no first hand evidence of the Y2K problems in Europe so I can't say if they're worse there than here. Certainly the Europeans have their hands full with the Euro, so that will tend to set the financial services firms and banks back. Sounds like you are up for a good contract gig there. Good luck and I hope you enjoy yourself.

Sharefin, for some reason I could not read your post. Clicked on it and got a URL not found error. Too bad, because I always enjoy your posts.

TJK, I know that many Y2K software companies have enjoyed huge stock price increases, such as the company based in Mass. who's name escapes me that has seen a 900% increase in the past three years.

Midas, thx for the info on Y2K stocks.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:50 - ID#31868)
My dear Squirrel - goodness. It is not against the law to talk and discuss. We
are merely engaging our thoughts at a distance. There are many pages on the Internet spouting direct and violent action against the Government and the NRA, the NAACP, AFL-CIO,whites, browns, yellows, blacks, Christians, Moslems, Jews, etc...there are enough nutties to keep track of and surely you must know this as your title suggests.

We are seeking only to elaborate scenarios. We are not saying that people should go out and do this that and the other. There are enough people in the world seeking to kill, maim, injure. We here at Kitco at not afraid to voice opinions. A world without thought does not know it is a world, and trees do not make a sound in a world without ears.

Save water, shower with a friend. Be gentle, don't use a brush.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:54 - ID#255284)
No Raving lunatic
You're nuts
;- )

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 16:59 - ID#384350)
The bad thing if the precedent erect were to fall, they would just put another one in his place, just like that 6-day pope.

The precedent erect will be in London for an economic summit and will possibly make a side trip to Ballybunion, County Kerry, Ireland for a golf outing.

See you at Mountjoy.

(Sat May 02 1998 16:59 - ID#286230)
Squirrel: Figment

(Sat May 02 1998 17:00 - ID#45173)
@All: Selling all my gold and am buying F500 stocks...
...because the stock market has reached a permanent plateau--we have entered a new economic paradigm. Corporate earnings will continue to grow to infinity. The $10B US debt will evaporate. The dollar will remain the world's reserve currency even with the option of a fractional gold-backed Euro controlled by union of creditor nations. The crisis in Asia will not effect us, it will simply go away once the Japanese and Korean governments succeed in stimulating economic growth there, even though they have failed to do so for the past eight years. Jan. 1, 2000 will come and go without incident; some computers will not work, but it turns out that these are not important to the operations of corporations or governments--no one will panic just because they hear that a few banks are unable to meet the cash demands of depositors. In this new world gold has no value. So I'm selling it all and buying into a 9100 DOW and riding it up to 15,000.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:02 - ID#45173)
..Just kidding.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:04 - ID#290118)
head for the hills
Short fiction story ( paraphrased as best as I can remember it ) . If someone remembers where it was printed please let me know. The story is so strikingly similar to conversations here and elsewhere on the net.

Immediately after WWII in a bar in NYC there sat several atomic scientists having drinks and talking about the Bomb. They're saying how easy it is to make one, how small it could be, that there could be a boat in NY harbor at that very minute with one on board. The barkeep asks these guys if they're serious. They assure him they are. He asks again since he figures they're pulling his leg. Yes they are dead serious - in the business they're in they know it is possible a boat with a Bomb on board could be in the harbor even as they speak.

The barkeep tells them about when he was in Europe before the war. He could see it coming - the stormtroopers, military buildup, etc. Since he was single he could make major decisions fast. One day he dropped everything, caught the first train and the first boat and got the h*** out of there! He didn't fret and worry and study it some more. He got out without even packing his bags - like evacuating a burning building.

The barkeep asks them yet one more time to make sure about the boat idea. Then he calls over the owner, tells him he is quitting, hangs up his apron, collects his pay and leaves for the nearest bus station. He does not stop by his apartment to pack.

In New Jersey he starts having second thoughts. Surely those guys are pulling his leg. They must be having one heck of a laugh on his account. And besides, he forgot to make arrangements to feed his cat. So at his first opportunity he finds a payphone and calls the bar. The operator can't make the connection - something is wrong with the phone lines.

About that time his attention is drawn to the east. Though it is late evening it looks like the sun is coming up. And the phone goes dead.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:05 - ID#153102)
The man who wants to appear wise without knowing anything or thinking about anything has latched onto the saying, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Study and prepare for the day that is coming when all shall say. "It's broke. What shall we do to fix it ?"

(Sat May 02 1998 17:08 - ID#31868)
My dock lines will be hitting the pier long before that happens.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:12 - ID#432298)
ATTENTION! Gold is going to make a dramatic comeback on Monday May 4th.
Take necessary steps to capture huge profits.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
Indonesia says 1,800 firms owe $64 billion in foreign debt (plus local debt I guess

(Sat May 02 1998 17:15 - ID#153102)
Rational fear is not lunacy though it may be proved unfounded by subsequent events. Since FDR, they have been betting everything. It takes a long time to bet everything. But, the world keeps turning. Lunacy is to think they have repealed the Law of Nature permanently.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:24 - ID#26793)
Mel Fisher insists gold treasure coins are authentic.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:26 - ID#26793)
Gazebo: is this a bandstand play?
Tell us why.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:28 - ID#39971)
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..........:- )

For RJ ..The Interrogator At Large....Uh huh.Money..its gas...

European Central Bank to hold some gold -Verplaets

BRUSSELS, Feb 13 ( Reuters ) - The European Central Bank ( ECB ) will hold ``some'' gold in its reserves

after it is set up later this year, National Bank of Belgium ( BNB ) ( BNAB.BR ) governor Alfons Verplaetse

said on Wednesday.

``I have an idea ( how much ) , but I am not going to tell you,'' Verplaetse told a news conference on the

BNB's annual report.

His comments were embargoed until Friday.

Between 1989 and 1996 Belgium sold around 730 tonnes of gold, making it one of the biggest official

sellers and contributing to fears that other European central banks may cut their holdings in the run-up to

economic and monetary union.

Verplaetse said the BNB had sold no gold in 1997, although it did lend gold, a practice he said it began

three years ago and which was now common among central banks.

The report shows the bank held at the end of 1997 around 476.5 tonnes of gold directly on its balance

sheet, a level unchanged from the end of 1996, plus a further 119.0 tonnes with ECB-precursor

European Monetary Institute.

Verplaetse also spoke more widely about the problem of foreign exchange reserves after EMU starts,

noting that if European central banks were to maintain the level of holdings they would have three times

as much reserves as they needed to cover external trade balances.

``It's excessive,'' Verplaetse said. ``During the coming months several national central banks will

undoubtedly have to consider their future external reserve requirements.''

Verplaetse said, however, there was no question of the banks simply dumping their reserves because

these always had a counterparty on the liabilities side of their balance sheet.

``The foreign exchange assets belong to the Belgian and Luxembourg economies and not to

shareholders,'' Verplaetse added, in answer to a recurrent question about whether the BNB's private

shareholders could have a claim on the assets.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:30 - ID#153102)
This site seems to be inhabited by a large proportion of Island Men and Boat People.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:34 - ID#255284)
They seek him here, they seek him there, -- He's a dedicated follower of fusion

Umm, anyone got it going yet? I think I have registered OK and am online as, which seemed to allow me to register, where was not accepted by registration procedure.
How do you find users by email address,
How do you use this easy-to-use programme?


"Take me to some bar-room, driver,
Set me on a stool.
If I can't be her man; I'm damned
I will not be her fool."

Guy Clark

(Sat May 02 1998 17:34 - ID#359316)
Interest rates
This week past we have had the ranks of Fed officials trotting out warnings about the US economy overheating and how "appropriate action" should be taken ( read interest rate hike ) . This led to several percent drops in the stock indices in the first half of the week. Later in the week, the story reversed, with tame economic reports suggesting that there wouldn't need to be an interest rate hike after all.

Coincidentally, Europe meets this weekend to decide who is to participate in the Euro currency. For conspiracy theorists, the game with the interest rates, culminating in a drop in the price of gold at the end of the week, when the Belgian banker said first that more gold sales might be made, ( after the market close, that same banker was reported to say the opposite, that Belgium has no plans to sell more gold ) would seem to give the US markets a useful big kick up just when public sentiment might have been distracted by the scale of this new "potential reserve currency".

There is much happening now.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
Island man; is it raining on your side of the pond?

(Sat May 02 1998 17:35 - ID#31868)
The only way governments and banks can survive is to suck the blood of the urban cluster dwellers. Those of us afloat or remote are not worth their bother.

We live better, sleep better and money is what it should be, only a minor part of any day, as it should be, not the focus. Life is for living, not for accounting.

Although, there certainly are some who should be held, in prisons, accountable.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:41 - ID#31868)
Still and quiet arrived about twenty minutes ago, cool air rushing up off the harbor. The birds are getting quiet. I figure about another fifteen or twenty and we will be wet.

Location - 1/2 way in Halesite Harbor.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:42 - ID#39971)
You mean kitco is not mainstream?Ouch!I dina no.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:44 - ID#26793)
I just looked for you. It showed me a lot of bald guys but said none of them were you.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
Same as here. Breeze dropped to zero suddenly.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:52 - ID#335184)
DONALD & or any AU SAMARITAN - I seem to have vaporized my recent Macrogold - Veneroso report .
Can you post me to it or zap it to me @ TNEWTRON@AOL.COM ? Many thanks for considering this request & for all the wonderful news & commentary you bring to this forum !
That's Macrogold Report from Veneroso.



(Sat May 02 1998 17:52 - ID#255284)
I've not even seen any bald guys. How'd you manage that?

I'd like to say, this ICQ is adding a whole new dimension to my life on-line, but that would be untruthful.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:54 - ID#31868)
Great stuff!!!

(Sat May 02 1998 17:56 - ID#26793)
It lets you do a search in my version ( WinNT 3.51 ) . A little window with cartoon character bald guys flashes by during the search sequence, one face at a time.

(Sat May 02 1998 17:56 - ID#255284)
I need a bar-room real quick
where's your pond?

No pond is safe downunder today, it's day 2 of duck-shooting season.

mai-mai ( a pun for sharefin & Dad )

(Sat May 02 1998 17:59 - ID#153102)
If I add expatriate Americans to Island Men and Boat People and wannabes of one of the foregoing classifications, I think I have defined a majority of kitcoites.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:05 - ID#341189)
OK, so would someone explain to me why it matters if the ECB holds gold as part
of their reserve? ( Other than the obvious effect on the gold supply if the member countries were to sell gold not held in reserve. ) I can't get it through my head as to how a currency can be "partially" backed with gold. Isn't the whole point of gold backing that it automatically disciplines the money supply? How would a partially backed currency be disciplined in any way? I can't imagine them setting "in stone" a fixed % of the euro being gold backed. But if they try, who will trust that? "We will only inflate 4:1 for the gold we have." What's to stop them from printing and buying gold so they can print more? What is this simple mind missing? Anyone. SDRer?

(Sat May 02 1998 18:06 - ID#26793)
@Newtron, Aurator
Newtron: you have mail
Aurator: Long Island Sound

(Sat May 02 1998 18:08 - ID#153102)
@Bar Room a.k.a. Beer Hall Discussion
It occurs to me that the propaganda campaign to convince the little people of the world that gold is not money is going so well ( And needs to go well for the safety of USG incumbents ) that the Euro people are definitely not going to rock the boat. Perhaps we should view the various technical predictions of horror for POG in summer in light of this political reality.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:14 - ID#153102)
Well, ECB is a new bank. So, if it holds gold, gold is still money. If it doesn't, gold is not money. I know that begs the question that if gold is money, what is this other stuff ? But, it's as rational as they can be, at the moment.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:16 - ID#329157)
ICQ- what use is that.
Real internet chatters use Internet Relay Chat.
mIRC- the best client program for Windows/IBM PC. Except the one I use
which I wrote myself, but that's not available yet.
mIRC was written by someone who was a student of Westminster University- which happens to have a campus next door to my local hospital where my sons were born. If you want to see what the stock bubble inflators are up to, connect to an Undernet IRC server and join the channel
#daytraders ( most active during US stock trading hours, 9.30am to 4pm US time, which is 2.30pm to 9pm UK time ) . There is also a #gold channel, but somehow I doubt if it concerns the yellow metal...

Perhaps, if a few other Kitcoites get up to speed with mIRC, after snooping on #daytraders and maybe recommending a few stocks like RANGY, DROOY, Homestake, Barrick etc., they could get a gold chat channel started.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:16 - ID#26793)
Exactly my point to SDRer yesterday. Backing or partial backing is only "gilding the throne". Head games between countries. We had that 1934-1971 and it did not work. We must have full exchangeability between all countries and citizens ala 1914-1931.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:17 - ID#290118)
Virtual Gold
Here and several other places on the Net and elsewhere there has often been stated ( sometimes with substantiation ) that there really is very little if any gold in the CB vaults ( only IOUs ) .
Due to my deep abiding distrust of all government - I believe this.
All this noise about % backing and gold sales, etc. etc. is about nothing. Really nothing. Empty vaults = Virtual Gold.
Long as nobody questions the King - his robes are truly golden.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:22 - ID#288369)
@40 years of gold supply in central banks, vaults, etc. Oh No!
Does anybody know how many years of gold supply were "available" to the market when gold made its last great move from $100/oz to $850/oz? And how many years worth of greenbacks have been printed that could be made "available" to the market? Eighty years...Five thousand years? geeze.....I'm confused. How many lobsters are there in the sea? Not enough.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:23 - ID#153102)
BIS knows what is in the vault. The whole reason for BIS to exist is so that somebody trustworthy is there to watch the vault.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:24 - ID#26793)
You have to understand why they might prefer backing to exchangeability. Exchangeability gives you another way of voting about how the economy, and more importantly, monetary policy, is being handled or mis-handled. You don't get that with backing. With backing other countries or currency systems are the only ones who get to vote. At least with floating currencies, as now, we all get to vote. They just don't like the results so hope that "backing" will change the next vote.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:25 - ID#26669)
tolerant1, better check the environmental laws
In many cities it is a misdemeanor to feed, harrass or molest squirrels. Besides, if you annoy them they're liable to bite you.

Seriously, you know whenever I see a poster come up and start to hint at violence, intrigue et cetera the first thing that pops into my mind is to wonder if they might be trying to sucker someone into being party to some government sponsored "plot" of one sort or another. No telling how many federales are out there trying to put another notch in their gun ( or conviction in their resume ) ?

(Sat May 02 1998 18:26 - ID#290118)
Gold IS money.
Mozel, et al
For those in the barter/exchange trade GOLD AND SILVER ARE MONEY. It matters not what the CBs or others do. All this talk about international monetary politics is, to some degree, academic. Those practicing what the gold bugs preach - are trying in their small way to implement a gold and silver standard among themselves - regardless of the rest of the world. Though, truth to tell, they are as trapped in the net as the rest of us are - but they have knives to cut themselves loose.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:26 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat May 02 1998 18:35 - ID#153102)
Golden Knife.
Nice image.
The net is rotten. The fact Politicians call it a safety net is conclusive evidence that it is rotten.

Senate voted 81 to 19 for Nato expansion. Does Nato and Euro overlap ? Has the Senate just assumed defense responsibilities for Euro ? Insanity rules.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:39 - ID#252391)
EURO Ministers can't decide
who will be their bank's leader. I can't decide if this is bullish or bearish for gold - probably bearish for gold and gold mining shares - isn't just about everyhing. Dollar falls - bearsih for gold, China may devalue - bearish for gold, central banks to sell more gold - very bearish, industrial stocks rise or fall - bearish for gold, hell the price of oil rises 75 cents - bearish for gold.

The only people to make money on this forum if gold goes much further DOWN will be the gold bears - how ironic.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
2,000,000 Japanese unionists protest poor economic policy.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:42 - ID#26669)
squirrel, thanks for the cold fusion website
BTW, having worked for the US government for some years in the past I have a great appreciation for the self righteousness and sense of mission of its employees. IMHO

An interesting fact to ponder is that the US Secret Service prosecutes over 4500 assassination threats per year, over half of which will result in "placement" of the person involved into a mental hospital or jail. A fair minority of the prosecutions are to teach jokesters and their communities a lesson. IMHO

As Mozel once wisely said. "To not walk in front of a truck is wise", or words to that effect. IMHO

(Sat May 02 1998 18:43 - ID#153102)
@Tomorrow @ICQ
@Tomorrow Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, & Italy pull out of Nato. The United States then is committed to defend Middle Europe all alone. UK half pulls out of Nato, but statys in enough to give US guidance in continental military matters. US military industrial complex invests in Chamgagne.

@ICQ in only one place. If everybody is going somewhere else, me, too.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:46 - ID#26793)
Japanese postpone "big ticket" purchases as prices continue dropping.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:47 - ID#335190)
Beer Hall Discussion @ "WHO Are They" "Powers to be" 1984 Orwell & Newspeak
Orwell pseudonym of Eric Arthur Blair [1903 ( India ) ....1950 ( England ) ]
1922..India - joined Imperial Police
1927..Mingled - in the life of poor and outcast of Europe
1937..Spain - joined Republican militia
1938..BBC - Indian Service
1945..Publishes - Animal Farm
1949..Publishes - "Nineteen Eighty-four."

the worker's, the striver's, the builder's - these are the people - struggling , fighting, bleeding, dieing.

"who controls the past,
controls the future.
who controls the present,
controls the past."
Be Quiet....Consume....And Die.
FWIW....Take Care

(Sat May 02 1998 18:49 - ID#288369)
How many lobsters are available this evening in the Boston markets? Not enough, if everyone orders lobster thermidor....and a Cuba Libre!

(Sat May 02 1998 18:51 - ID#26793)
It's done. The European Greenspan is a "dusey" and DeGaulle rolls over in grave

(Sat May 02 1998 18:53 - ID#341189)
So it doesn't matter what % the ECB holds in gold except for some PR effect? Why do you suppose ANOTHER was so taken with the prospect of some gold "backing" for the euro? I have to conclude that we have come to the point where just nodding at the importance of gold is seen as a sign that the CB will be honorable in its behavior. If that is the best that can be hoped for, perhaps we would all be better off if all the CBs got rid of their gold and let it find its way into the hands of those who actually think AND act according to its importance.

(Sat May 02 1998 18:53 - ID#286279)
With ICQ you have a lot of flexibility and control over your privacy. You contact people the first time via their ICQ UIN.

my nickname = sam

my bogus email = sam@kitcochat ( you won't be able to search for people by email unless it's a real email address, you don't need to put real email address )

My ICQ UIN = 11922834

I think ICQ will be useful, and better than IRC. I have used it with friends for almost a year. This thing is really easy, honest.

aurator & Donald- Post your ICQ number and I will add you to my contact list

(Sat May 02 1998 18:56 - ID#26793)
I found you by ID#. Look for message.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:01 - ID#227238)
Donald: Hmmmmm! That sure was an interesting way for the Europeans to escape their procedural conundrum. Eh? There is no political problem so great that it cannot be "amended" with a little creative chicanery and some arm twisting. ...... Ya gotta love it.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:03 - ID#26793)
That is my opinion. The gold is real enough. They can spend it. I can't spend or save it. It is useless to me. It doesn't even have the international government exchangeability of the U.S. 1934-1971 system.

It is sort of like the gold you ( Carl ) own personally. It is of no use to me. At the best it means that as a taxpayer I am less likely to be tapped for your welfare payments should you need them. Countries with gold backing are less likely to be charity case countries.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:04 - ID#286279)
more ICQ
To find your ICQ UIN, you have one if you were properly registered...

1 ) Launch ICQ, if is running but was minimized, click the green flower.

2 ) Click the blue [Menu] button in lower left of ICQ window.

3 ) Chose [Add/Change Current User]

4 ) Click [View/Change my details]

If you register again ( easy to do ) to change your email address for example, you will get a new ICQ UIN but you should unregister the old number ( easy to do ) . I got a new registration and unregistered my old one just for you folks ( so I could change my email listing to something Kitco related per Bart's suggestion ) .

(Sat May 02 1998 19:05 - ID#341189)
The new ECB head
Sometimes, history shows us, interim compromise apointments jump up and declare themselves King and rule for a long time.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:05 - ID#288156)
Hello! Just dropping in to make sure you chaps have things well in hand and that you're having fun..

You do! You are! {:- ) )

And to bring forward this: ECB begins operations July 1998--
BIS-China begins operations July 1998

Announced the China Branch April 21, 1998...moving right along!
It is a challenging political anagram! ( political anagram, e.g. salt would be pepper, or maybe assault...with political anagrams you have to 1. analyze the paper on which the word appears, the method used to fix the word to the paper, the person who used the method etc., move the words all around the paper,etc.....{:- ) )

(Sat May 02 1998 19:06 - ID#410114)
gold gets wacked big time Monday

(Sat May 02 1998 19:10 - ID#286279)
Didn't get anything. When the system is running OK, messages should arrive instantly.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:11 - ID#335184)
GDP way up, BUT Profits growth down to 3.3%, MFG & Exports down imports way up & inventories stout
Stock margin debt 2 x all time high
S&P P/Es @ 28 x trailing earnings
stock market Cap @ 12 + Trillion requpres 1.2 T to move it 10%
Long Bond rate up 25 + or - basis points
Cost of wages receding
US$ firming vs. Yen & soft vs. Dmark
AU soft but holding firm above $300
Insider selling sharply rising
CPI flat, but doesn't count stocks & but for the dip in oil & computres would be on fire compared to stated levels.
DOW refuses to correct & S&P is 12 points away from it's all time high.
EPS on THE OEX may be overstated to the tune of20%

observations to follow



(Sat May 02 1998 19:11 - ID#288156)
Carl, Donald--can't RESIST--but apologize for butting-in...
What if: they didn't really have a choice in the matter?
Frankly, I think Euro would have been very happy to set sail
in a paper boat. They became aware that, trade-wise, investment-wise,
future-wise, on ad infinitum, they should re-think that
Wish I could stay...gooood conversation!

(Sat May 02 1998 19:18 - ID#26793)
I am ID#11928983. Try and send me something.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:19 - ID#286279)
Easy way: It's the title bar of ICQ window.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:22 - ID#26793)
@Earl, SDRer
Hi Earl; good to see you lurking. SDRer; butt back in soon.

Tyler Rose
(Sat May 02 1998 19:23 - ID#373164)
Well, I made a connection with Sam. Tyler Rose's ICQ number is 11940452. Anyone else posted a number?

(Sat May 02 1998 19:26 - ID#254112)
@carl: What means a %-backing of the EURO? (your 18:05)
I think you are asking a very logical question. But this %-gold backing question isn't addressed here at kitco with algebraic logic.

If a % number of backing the EURO would make sense, lets algebraically correct calculate what that means based on the numbers which we know.
( or we think we know! ) :

It was said that there will be 50 billion EUROS.
The Germans are supposed to transgfer 96 million ounces to the ECB.
When we put the market value of US%310 on these ounces we have a dollar value of 29.760 billion worth of US$ to back the EUROS.
Now, one EURO seems to be defined at the value of US$ 2.
Therefore the gold backing only by the German gold hoard would be
close to 30% of the total amount of EUROS which will be created at the starting point. ( Did I calculate right? )

As it is not probable that the Germans will be the only ones to transfer their gold, and you add the French and the Italian gold, which is also around 3,000 tons each, you would have a 100% gold backing of the 50 billion EUROS from the beginning.

But now the question is: what means backing? Will they define a floor for the gold price? And: when new EUROS are created in the future, will the relation between gold volume ( i.e., mumber of gold ounces ) and EUROS remain the same?

We all don't know yet. But to keep the term "backing" in a spongy way undefined is not right, not in our academic discussion and not after we are able to assess what the Europeans have decided. Just to have a certain amount of gold in the cellar without commitment to the relationship of gold amount and created EUROS would be just the same wishiwashi, with a little more spiced up gold coverage, than having no gold coverage at all. If becomes again a question of confidence what the EURO is worth. And this is not satisfactory. Confidence at the end dissolves into thin air.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 02 1998 19:27 - ID#317193)
I ask a question: Are all at this meeting in cyberspace Don Quixotes? Are we just jousting at windmills? Is a question to ponder, Yes?

If so, then please Sancho, my lance!

Tom bbl

(Sat May 02 1998 19:28 - ID#286279)
All who are concerned about privacy: When you register on ICQ all you are required to enter is a nickname and an email address. The email address can be a bogus one.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 19:29 - ID#347447)
re your 11:21 about Alphee Lavoie, who "tracks the planets" and wants to make you ( and any one else buying his newsletter ) rich - no I have not heard of him. All the financial astrologers I know I can count on my fingers, but he ain't one. And I don't take off my shoes for strangers, kind or otherwise. Perhaps you should inquire of know... ( damn, I just can't help myself ) What's it all about, Aplhee?

(Sat May 02 1998 19:30 - ID#347235)
John Disney Your 0447 hrs
You are one sick bigoted Putz. It is a good thing you are 10,000 miles away and I dont care to waste my money to see you in person. Otherwise you and I would have a very interesting discussion probably followed by some healthy strenuous exercise. If I were you I would keep looking over my shoulder as I have had many Jewish friends ask me what I would do and I told them what I just told you. SOme of these guys are a little more impulsive than I.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 19:34 - ID#347447)
Earlier you said :

"RJ, Mike Sheller: Glad you enjoyed the physics post. I made one little error, which I need to correct. The inverse of plank's constant is not in units of energy or frequency. The resonance phenomenon, if it exists, is probably near the annihilation frequency of the electron -- about 512 kilo electron volts in energy terms. That is in the Xray range, and highly toxic to humans. Perhaps one can use
two ( or multiple ) lower freqeuncy laser beams and drive the process nonlinearly. "

I caught the error, but didn't want to embarrass you by sayin' anything.
( RJ didn't know WHAT the hell you were talking about ) . ( ;- )

Yes, I am as confused by you as you are by me. I think it's a very nice relationship. Someday, if we keep this up, we may each understand each other.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:42 - ID#317193)
I think you missed the sarcasm.

Tom later folks

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 19:44 - ID#347447)
Money makes the world go round 101
or is it love? This whole "thing" about the intrinsic value of money is very simple. Gold is money BECAUSE it is a commodity. Only value can be exchanged for value. Gold is the universal commodity of choice for use as money because of its unique characteristics that suit it to be so more than any other commodity. Its relative rarity, its beauty and fascination to humanity, its portability, it homogeneity, and all that stuff.

Anything that is true "Money" is an homogenous value that is exchanged for another value that is non-homogenous. A ton of tomatoes may be of equal market value as a physical good to the materials and labor of a new roof on your house. Clearly, a piece of paper the size of a fiat note with, say, any number you wish printed on it is NOT, intrinsically, of equal value with the ton of tomatoes or the materials and labor for the roof.
The only thing that can be of equal representative value is another physical item, or service that requires the same relative effort to obtain or create. Gold must be obtained by the creative industry, skill, and labor of human beings. Like putting in roofs, or growing tomatoes. Making little pices of paper with printing on it has a value too, but one single unit of such a production, like a fiat note, has, intrinsically, a fraction of a fraction of the value of the ton of tomatoes or the roof it would seek to represent. The derivation of the term "note" for a paper fiat bill is from the days when money was gold and the paper bill was a note or receipt against a particular amount of it in a vault. Beats carrying pockets full of gold around. Try running for the train some morning with seventeen 10 oz gold bars in yer pants or handbag. My wife is a brilliant woman, with an amazing mind, and a very astute Real Estate person. But for some reason, long ago, before she got into RE, she had difficulty with the concept of specie and paper and intrinsic value. Obviously so do a lot of otherwise smart people. So I told her to close her eyes and put out her hands. After taking liberties with her physical person, which I couldn't resist, I put a $1 bill in her left hand, and a $50 bill in her right. Any difference? She said no. Then I put a one ounce silver bar in her left hand and a 50 ounce silver bar in her right. Enlightenment!

Yes, FAITH is very powerful. But faith is often misplaced. Even the faith of goldbugs has been misplaced recently. The question we are essentially arguing here every day is "When will faith in the fiat system evaporate, or be shaken to the degree that gold will make a catchup move for all the years it has been neglected and betrayed. That is all. Worth waiting for, I'd say.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 19:51 - ID#347447)
one other thingie
gold is also DURABLE. The tomatoes will rot. The roof will peel away someday. The ton of wheat or the herd of feeder cattle will become useless unless consumed fairly quickly. But the gold bar will sit there in your vault or your drawer or on your desk looking nice and lovely as the day you got it for ever and ever.

(Sat May 02 1998 19:52 - ID#34857)
EL OTRO come, SI?

(Sat May 02 1998 19:53 - ID#255284)

The Standard Catalog of World Gold coins just helped me provenance a friend's family heirloom: a 1768 George III Guinea, we are all grateful.

Cute Cookoo noise as ICQ alert

(Sat May 02 1998 19:57 - ID#31868)
Glad Donald answered. I apologize, I have been on the couch. All the talk of water and the harbor, fishing and claming boats going by. Well, I cooked and I ate a tremendous plate of linguini and clams and passed out on the couch.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:05 - ID#347172)
All: Logistics
With all the dire quasi-predictions brought forth on this forum, my question is one of simplicity. If the economic system undergoes a complete breakdown, how will holders of PM's exchange their holdings for say simple day to day staples, such as liquor, food or gasoline? If a 1oz. gold coin is presently worth US$300, then it might be worth a complete shopping list of groceries for the time span of a month ( for discussion, say US$1,000,presently ) . But how will the store keeper, supplier or manufacturer keep all of the wheels turning to keep the product available for the store keeper to have available for exchange? This can only happen if gold becomes the "currency" of last resort. As many have stated here, I'm glad to have found like minds here so that they may enlighten and broaden my narrow horizons.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:05 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmm, I would say that Kitcoites are a rather eclectic mix. Hard to mentally confine or define them without meeting them. Until I met Sheller I never would have guessed he was 6'3 with red hair.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:08 - ID#45173)
@Newton and the Kitco crew
The numbers paint a not so rosy picture. The meters on the machine that we have been building and that has running so well to our benefit for the past nearly 50 years show that it is set to blow a gasket. Vested interests have every motive to say that all is well. Knowing all the while that it is not, they work furiously to keep it going. In Japan the human cost of that effort is tragically high, as yesterday's news reveals. Except that they are not one. They are many, each working the part of the machine they can influence as best they can to keep it going, for themselves, their country, their family... Each can only do so much.

At some point the machine will not respond to the commands of the men at the levers. It will stop and then begin to run backwards. And then when it has run backwards to exhaustion it will be no more, destroyed. A new machine will be built to replace it. Much human suffering will transpire. All that is needed to start this process is a catalyst, a destabilizing event that pushes the machine to run beyond its limits, out of control. We may not even be aware of the event. For it may be not one huge event but a series of hardly noticable events; the point of departure may be slow to impress itself upon our consciousness. But the effect will be to push the machine to chaos.

How will it feel? It has already been better said by someone else.

"...face to face with the margin of mystery where all our calculations collapse, where the stream of time dwindles into the sands of eternity, where the formula fails in the test tube, where chaos and old night hold sway and we hear the laughter in the ether dream."

"How life is strange and changeful, and the crystal is in the sphere at the point of fracture, and the toad bears a jewel in its forehead, and the meaning of moments passes that scarcely ruffles the leaf of the willow."

Robert Penn Warren
All The King's Men

If this makes no sense to you now, indulge me to reread this in two years.


(Sat May 02 1998 20:13 - ID#290118)
Pockets full of gold
Mike Sheller on Sat May 02 1998 19:44 wrote:
"The derivation of the term "note" for a paper fiat bill is from the days when money was gold and the paper bill was a note or receipt against a particular amount of it in a vault. Beats carrying pockets full of gold around. Try running for the train some morning with seventeen 10 oz gold bars in yer pants or handbag."
Mike, We better all buy stock in transporatation companies.
At today's prices seventeen 10oz gold bars is over 50,000 US$.
Or is that Jules Verne's train to the moon ( remember the picture? ) .
Really though, What would a cross country train ticket be in the US for instance - maybe a 1 oz eagle. A cab to the airport - maybe a 1/10 oz eagle. These amounts wouldn't wear my pockets out ( though you can bet I'd have extra heavy duty, no coins falling out on the airport chairs deep pockets if I carried gold in them.
RE the Euro
We are the Euro. You will be assimilated. Resistance is Futile.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:13 - ID#335190)
Holland @ Unknown ? Not Likely !
The arrival of the English in Virginia and of the Dutch on the Hudson ( 1609 ) , challenging the French in Acadia and on the St. Lawrence, ( Canada ) signalled the onset of the long struggle of the European powers for colonial territory and trade in northeastern North America. The chief victims of this struggle were the Indian ( First Nations ) people.

During the first half of the 17th century Spain linked with the empire of the Austrian Hapsburgs, was dominant in Europe and held an immensely rich domain in Mid-America. Thirty Years War ( 1618-48 ) a league of Protestant states born of the Reformation challenged the Catholic Hapsburgs. France under Richelieu, the Catholic cardinal, sided intermittently with the Protestant powers; utilizing the alliance, however vacillating and unstable, in order to strengthen the hold of the centralized monarchy on borderlands threatened by Hapsburg encirclement ( France's war with Spain continued till 1659 ) Spain emerged weakened from the long war. It's economy was unable to digest the silver stream of booty from Peru and Mexico, stagnation and decline were the result.

Meanwhile Holland, which a half century before had won its independence from Spain and established a Republic, as a result had forged ahead and was the foremost trading and maritime power in Europe. Estimated that of the 20,000 ships in the seaborne trade of Europe, some 16,000 belonged to the Dutch merchants, ( England had 3-4,000, France only 600 )

Thus tiny Holland, thanks to its capitalist developement, had become a power - with colonial outposts in India and Indonesia, and a fur-trading colony astride the Hudson with four times as large a population as New France.

But a mightier rival than the Dutch was in the making. Across the Channel, the English revolution of 1642-49 released an aggressive upsurge of economic and political energies. Unlike the Dutch, whose strength resided primarily in a vast accumulation of commercial capital, the English were manufacturers as well as merchants.

Rule in England led quickly to an armed collision with Holland, her chief rival and competitor in trade. In the words of General Monck, Cromwell's lieutenant, "The dutch have too much trade, and the English are resolved to take it from them" The Anglo-Dutch war of 1652-4 was but the first of three, in which the English step by step asserted their predominance.

The greater development of English manufactures, and Holland's concentration on commerce, decided the eventual outcome of the contest.

In 1664, just on the eve of the second Dutch war, the English seized New Holland, ousting their rivals from a strategic area of North America. The acquisition of the Dutch fur-trading colony on the Hudson, which for 40 years had lain as a wedge separating New England from the other possessions to the south, created a continuous string of English colonies along the coast between Spanish Florida and New France.

In 1654 a force of 500 men, led by Robert Sedgwick, a Cromwellian officer, had captured Port Royal and two other forts in Acadia ( Nova Scotia Canada ) ; the English held them until 1667, when Charles II gave them back to France.

FWIW...Take Care

(Sat May 02 1998 20:16 - ID#255284)
Thanks Bart for allowing us this latitude to get used to ICQ
Mike Sheller or anywon with 68K Mac..

You have a 68K Mac, Yes? Or is you a PowerPC?
I have a 68k and have had difficulty with IRC chat app, tho was able to download ICQ v 1.1.2.

Would you please try to download the IRC with Chat v 1.4.1 from
and advise

Would like to know if it was my mac or problem elsewhere. I will then be able to forward a marvellous little application called Jared, he sings Guatemalan folksongs off-key, he is very addictive

(Sat May 02 1998 20:19 - ID#31868)
223 - We are all already part of a government sponsored plot.
Lets see, funding the UN, Fiat money ( Federal Notes ) not Constitutional coin. Hmmmmmm, Ruby and Waco and Lord knows what else. We are all already criminals, what more could you ask for?

Pay taxes and you are a criminal buddy, no if's, and's or but's.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:23 - ID#45173)
@Mike Sheller Bravo! Bravo!
The machine is based on confidence. It runs on confidence. The reason I keep harping on this Y2K stuff is that this more than anything, a disruption of transactions via computer--with a supplier, a bank the governmetn--will break that confidence. A $100 electronic transfer will be meaningless because the reciever may question its validity. It won't be worth less than $100, as in inflation. It will be worth... nothing! This is my fear. This is what is new. And of that's the case, then a $100 bill will suddenly look like nothing more than a piece of paper with "$100" printed on it. By whom? By what authority? Why could they not make my electronic $100 be worth anything?

$100 paper. What can I get with it? But no. The question is not what can I get in exchance for a piece of paper with $100 printed on it but how many pieces of paper with $100 printed on it do I have to give a man for a computer, or a car, or a piece of bread?


(Sat May 02 1998 20:25 - ID#29048)
The Euro
Link for future reading:

The euro as an international reserve currency.

The growth of the unified financial market in Europe, and the reputation of stability that the euro will gain, should contribute to an increase of its use as a reserve currency. Central banks of non-EU countries are expected to continue the gradual diversification of their reserve holdings which has been underway for some decades: between 1973 and 1994, the share of the dollar in official reserves has declined from 76 to 63 %. This phenomenon will probably accelerate in those countries which have close trade ties with the euro zone, and which may choose to use the euro as an anchor. But also in the rest of the world, the role of the euro will probably grow, reflecting the internationalisation of the euro.

Currently, the central banks of the European Union hold six times more reserves than the US, and two times more than Japan. This is possibly related to the existence of the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS. As this EMS-constraint will disappear with the creation of EMU, the need to hold international reserves by the European Central Bank will be smaller than the sum of the reserves of the national central banks participating in EMU. In addition, more than 60 % of the current external transactions of the EU Member States will become domestic transactions in the monetary union ( if 15 member states participate ) , which is another reason why the need for international reserves in the euro area will be smaller than the
total of reserves of its members.

There are, however, counterbalancing factors at play. It can be expected that, certainly during the first years after the introduction of the euro, the ECB may hold a stock of international reserves which is higher than would be warranted once the monetary union has reached its cruising speed, as a high level of reserves will probably increase the credibility of the ECB. Nevertheless, while the different factors affecting the need for international reserves of the ECB work in opposite directions, it can be expected that there will be an excess of reserves in dollars. Its size will depend on which countries participate in EMU and on the ECB's reserve strategy. But in any case, the ECB will only gradually reduce its excess dollar reserves in order to limit the impact on the exchange market, so that it can be expected that this process will be gradual and take a relatively long time.

IMHO,what is said about the dollar is true for gold also. More will be held at first then later. It's just plain tough to be a gold bug.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:29 - ID#347235)
@ TyYoung
I didnt really miss the sarcasm it is just that several people did contact me that were even more offended than myself. This is stuff that should have disspeared when the allies shut down the ovens in Germany. I lost too many relatives to the ovens to think that sort of stuff very funny.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 20:32 - ID#384350)
Central Bank Sales
A hypothetical situation: Let's say Golmer Goldberg owned a bank. It has liabilities of 1 trillion and assets of 1.2 trillion.

The assets are made up of some very valuable gold on the books for 200 million and some paper that's supposedly worth 1 trillion, but in reality this paper is worthless ( if anyone found out it had no backing ) .

Golmer has a responsibility to depositors and he knows that a few people are starting to realise that the paper assets are really worthless.

He could care less about the paper, but he doesn't want to lose the gold.

Golmer gets this great idea. He sets up a shell company in the Caymans of which he is the hidden owner, and he starts selling the gold in his bank to his shell company. This way if his bank collapses, he won't waste his gold trying to defend his bank. All the real assets ( gold ) will be sold to his shell company and he can keep all the gold for himself.

Now Golmer has transfered all the valuable assets out of his bank, so that when the creditors come looking around for anything of value, Golmer will smile and empty his pockets and say, "Look, no Gold. I sold it."

(Sat May 02 1998 20:37 - ID#255284)
That "thunking" sound you hear is the falling into place of a piece of the jigsaw. Thanks.

ya know, I used to detest history as a child. I realise now, it was because I had a detestable teacher. A sad thing, to extinguish a child's chances at appreciating a relm of knowledge. Fortunately there have been many more inspiring teachers in this life, some are here at kitco right now.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:39 - ID#29048)
Alberich and Carl and "Backing"
As I understand it, no currency is "backed" by anything other than the good faith and credit of the government which issues it. Assets are held in reserve by banks and governments for various reasons but these assets are not one-to-one backing for the currency. The main thing which backs a dollar is faith in the system. As long as people are willing to trade the fruits of their labor for dollars, it will remain strong.

The ECB will begin with 50 billion U.S. dollars worth of reserves, the composition of which is not known. Some of those reserves will be gold, but far more will be U.S. dollars and treasuries. Some will be yen.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:41 - ID#290118)
storekeeper's gold scale
MOREX, thanks for the reminder - I must get that quad beam scale ordered.
I AM a shopkeeper - and I'm already deep in the hills.
When that scale arrives I will accept gold for payment for anything in my store. My standard of exchange will reflect the bullion spot price which, for simplicity works out to:
1 cent = 1 milligram of 99.99 bars, coins or grain
22K Eagles, etc valued at the above for face weight or actual mass less 10%
Placer dust, nuggets, etc. {available locally} valued at the above less 20% of the actual mass.
To tie the standard of exchange to actual merchandise my prices shall be: one photocopy = 10mg gold, one pound of honey = 200mg gold, one 3 1/2" DSHD floppy disk = 100mg gold, one minute of internet time {on my 350MHz Mac PPC 9600 at 33Kbps} = 15mg of gold, one 40minute prepaid phonecard = 1 gram of gold.
Silver will be accepted at a ratio of 50:1 {depending on spot prices}.
Unless somebody has a better idea I'll have a Buck knife, metal shears and sharpening file for shaving or filing down big chunks and making change. {Gold grain would make things so much more convenient - 99.99 is available from Bart for the same price as kilobars}
I'll also accept Platinum - no way to counterfeit that stuff - if its spec grav is anywhere close to 21.5 then it's Pt or even better stuff.

(Sat May 02 1998 20:42 - ID#28594)
EJ-- your 20:08 -- An excellent post...a remarkable post
Thank you.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 20:52 - ID#384350)
Do you know Golmer? Central Bank Sales, Part 2
Think of a small business owner whose company is incorporated. To avoid double taxation, the owner has a few company owned sports cars, holiday homes in various countries owned by the company.

One day the company gets hit with a mega lawsuit and is now more or less insolvent, so he Tries to pay out in dividends to himself the cars, the homes, and excess cash.

He tries but the courts don't allow this kind of thing, UNLESS the transfers happen BEFORE the litigating circumstance.

Now think of what Verplaetse said. The proceeds of gold sales belong to the ECONOMIES of Belgium and Luxembourg. They don't belong to the citizens of these countries. Doesn't anybody wonder why these central banks are replacing a valuable asset with a worthless one in this shell game?

(Sat May 02 1998 21:00 - ID#28594)
Mike Sheller, "Money makes the world..."
You have one of the most enjoyable and informative writing styles;
with the added bonus that you always have something to say that
needs to be said. Thanks! {:- )

Must be off again--did need to stop by the oasis.
Uh, what was the name of that Italian psychiatrist?

(Sat May 02 1998 21:03 - ID#267276)
Homestake purchase
Just in case some of you dont know Baron August Von Finck of germany now owns 8.8% of Homestake mining. It was reported in todays Barons 13d filings that he just increased his holdings in the last month. The baron is is very wealthy industrialist and a member of the group of 300.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 02 1998 21:08 - ID#384350)
Central Bank Sales, Part 3
Okay, what I'm trying to say is that if you owned a central bank, and you knew it was doomed to fail, then wouldn't you try to covertly transfer assets ( gold ) out of it before it collapses.

(Sat May 02 1998 21:10 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Alphee wants $1400 for his compact disc. Not only are you going to get rich, he is not doing too bad himself.

(Sat May 02 1998 21:21 - ID#26793)
SEC proposes relaxing derivative rules

(Sat May 02 1998 21:25 - ID#150172)
IRC chat
I just created a IRC chat called:

on 'undernet'

perhaps someone could see if they can see it?
It will apparently go away when everyone leaves it.

(Sat May 02 1998 21:30 - ID#290118)
I just downloaded it for my PPC. If you don't here from me my tomorrow figure I frazzled out. Wish me luck.

(Sat May 02 1998 21:35 - ID#252391)
DIGDEEP seems the baron
bought the top like many of us. Shows there isn't that much difference between the big guns and we little pitols.

(Sat May 02 1998 21:40 - ID#341312)
Sharefin, Nanyuki
Kudos to Nanyuki for posting the BOJ suicide ( ? ) story here first at Kitco. Fast fingers! Also, in Sharefin's COBOL story nationwide book retailer Barnes and Noble announced they have finished Y2K code remediation. Well, that's one. Course they still haven't tested it yet, and then there's the problem with vendors, and the banks, and the utilities, and the government... Buy bullion. Gold, silver platinum. The lower it goes, the bigger it blows. ( This is reference to the POG, POS and POP and the Financial Panic of '99 scheduled to start April 1, 1999 when New York state government goes Abort, Retry, Fail? It is NOT a reference to the POTUS and a certain intern named Monica. )

(Sat May 02 1998 21:42 - ID#150172)
what happens april 1 in NYC 1999?

(Sat May 02 1998 21:49 - ID#255190)
Deeply disturbed
by the new chief director of BOJ death by suicide. Folks, this guy has been at post for less than six months. What in blazes was so bad that he felt as if he had to kill himself? Is it possible that he was a bit more honorable than his predecessors, and that upon finding out just how bad things were he could neither continue to play the game nor resign his post?

This fellow was on the job just long enough to figure out what the story was and no more. Do you think anyone else would want the job after this??? It is a chilling evidence indeed. Top brass are falling like flies over there ( either by their own hand or by the paddy wagon ) .

God help them. And us as well.

GOne for the night. Will pick up tomorrow.

Mike Sheller
(Sat May 02 1998 21:52 - ID#347447)
Donald, Aurator
So Alphee is from the school whereby the more they charge the more legit it seems. Hey, please, I am not familiar with his work so I really have nothing to say. There are all kinds of weirdos out there you know ( ;- ) .

Aurator: I have a Power Computing Power Base 180 Mac clone ( Power PC equivalent )
BUT PLEASE, as much as I love and respect you, and idolize your use of the English language, don't ask me to download anything. Not just yet. Enough changes going on in my life, thanks. And thanks for understanding.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:01 - ID#341189)
@Speed and Alberich
Speed, "Faith and Credit", hmm, yes, in a paper world, faith that the "backer" of the currency I hold will not flood the market with more of the same. Gold requires no such faith. Real "backing" makes the currency essentially a receipt for gold. "Faith and Credit" then means something quite real: faith that the gold is there, and that the country hasn't encumbered it with debt.
Alberich, You are doing the logic ( algebra ) which we need to keep our feet on the ground. The contradiction inherent in what is being attempted by the EU seems to be revealed when you consider the euro's relationship to the currencies which are presumably being used to back it. When it starts to trade against those very currencies, what will be the effect? If one of those currencies goes down, will it take the euro with it? To use SDRer's term, this seems like setting sail in a paper ship unless they really do set a gold convertabity standard. I wonder how many people in Japan are wishing they were holding their "reserves" in gold, rather than in a foreign currency we all know and love.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:16 - ID#372276)
I don't wish to be tedious when everyone wants to concentrate on the Euro. And I realize that my understanding of USC legal language is very imperfect, that is why I posted them. However, In the absence of a Legal Dictionary I consulted a Legal Thesaurus, a Dictionary, and Fowlers Modern English Usage, and am still ignorant of the Legal definition of "shall" or how it effects the overall meaning of these statues. Regardless, perhaps someone could comment upon or help elucidate these points.

1 ) per my 03:27 - 12 USC  290. USE OF EARNINGS TRANSFERRED TO TREASURY: "The net earnings derived by the United States from Federal reserve banks shall, in the discretion of the Secretary, be used to supplement the gold reserve held against outstanding United States notes, or shall be applied to the reduction of the outstanding bonded indebtedness of the United States under regulations to"etc.

a ) does the US Treasury always derive net earnings from Federal Reserve banks, or does 290 refer only to the net earnings surplus fund of the Federal Reserve banks to be transferred to the Treasury in 1997 and 1998, per 289 subparagraph 3? And why 1997/1998?

b ) if the latter; --given the accurate use of "supplement"-- is it possible that the US Treasury has been or could acquire gold in 1997 and 1998, if it has not been reducing outstanding bonded indebtedness?

Now lets speculate. Although this transfer of earningswe know not to what dollar amount might partly account for the deficit reduction in 1997; we have already established that to reduce the outstanding bonded indebtedness is to contract the money supply, something that you dont want to do unless you want to wreck the economy. So what are the chances that these earnings will be used to BUY GOLD? If this earnings transfer is as much as a billion dollars it could be meaningful for gold. BTW the Treasury has to buy gold at the going rate, I read it in the regulations.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:17 - ID#31868)
Anyone who thinks we are not jumping off into oblivion
due to Y2K, think again, then re-think. Then do your best to become prepared.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:24 - ID#256326)
Donald, Mike Sheller
Alphee LaVoie's Financial Trader is an excellent program for researching markets. I have had the DOS version for a long time and recently upgraded to the Win95 version. I think we are all aware that advertizing is "creative writing", but the program itself is superb. LaVoie's reputation is primarily in horary astrology, about which I know next to nothing, but his partner in the Fibancial Trader is and has been Bill Meridian, a well-known financial astrologer.
Research that I have been able to do because of the well-written Financial Trader has helped me immensely in trading the S&P500 futures.
I hope to find time to do the same type of work on gold in the near future.
Regarding the price, there has been a rapid escalation in pricing of computer programs for market research. Robert Miner's Dynamic Trader, Robert Krausz's Fibonacci Trader, and Kasanjian's Nature's Pulse are all well over $1000 now. For those of us who trade technically and spend long hours studying markets, these programs are w

(Sat May 02 1998 22:25 - ID#153102)
Shall means may in the statute.
USG had the richest vein of gold in N.A. on property in the West and gave it away in a bill sponsored by Senatoressa Feinstein of the Clintonistas. If they are buying gold, it is from somebody like Blum, Feinstein's hubby, and I'm sure they are paying top dollar. I have speculated before that USG or Fed Reserve is on the other side of some or all of ABX's wonderful hedge program.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:25 - ID#290118)
I never got around to posting my # but several of us were bumbling around in the dark. Maybe I just though it was dark because I've got my shades on. Anyway. My ICQ# is 11954224.
Nothing better to do on a Saturday Night, eh!

(Sat May 02 1998 22:28 - ID#290118)
NYC on 4/1/99
See my earlier post about the barkeeper.
The sun rises in the east.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:28 - ID#256326)
Is there a weekend limit on the number of words per post? About half my last post was lost. Let us know if we should be composing in a text editor or word processor before posting here. Is this something new?

(Sat May 02 1998 22:30 - ID#255151)
Nice To Be Off For A Few Days

Got to thinking about your post about the volume of writing at Kitco. Noone can read all of it, all the time. Depending on my schedule, some days I read every post, and other days I have to perform triage and read a selected few. Some days, Y2K is of interest and I will focus on Sharefin, EJ, Miro, and others. On other days, History is of interest and those posts dealing with the past will receive my greatest attention. Gotten pretty good at skipping past threads or posts that are of no interest. You can always find stuff here that keeps you spending more time at Kitco than you should! {:- )

(Sat May 02 1998 22:32 - ID#256326)
Waaaaay back in 1996, there used to be a search function at Kitco so one could scan a whole week or two for posts by one's favorites or favorite topics.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:36 - ID#434158)
ECK333 - NYC
New York State goes to fiscal 2000 on April 1, 1999, the first state to roll over into the fiscal Y2K twilite zone. Most other states hit it in July. Computers which use the fiscal date may have difficulties. I think that's what the reference was about.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:36 - ID#255151)

My 22:30 should have read "To aurator", however, comments from all shall be welcomed!

trader ed
(Sat May 02 1998 22:37 - ID#373349)
Elliott Waves - Market guesses
1. Early next week, likely on Monday, June gold will dip down to just below $300, before starting it's recovery to the $315 - $318 area. The near month contract will then fall to the $275 - $280 area.

2. The current up move in the S&P 500 is just about over. There is less than a 50% chance that the up move will continue beyond Monday. The S&P will decline in a zig-zag fashion to around 1070.

3. The June T-Bond contract will decline to the 118-00 to 118-8/32 area before recovering to about the 123 area. If you are planning on the purchase or refinance of a house, this will be a good time to do so. Interest rates will increase, before dropping again later in the year.

These guesses as to what the markets will do is for discussion purposes only. It is hoped that no one attempts to use these guesses for trading or investment purposes.

I have gone out on a limb with some rather specific predictions. The markets will prove me right or wrong very soon.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:37 - ID#290118)
sharefin, tyler and I back and forth
Where is sam, aurator, donald, etc.
Aurator, what is your #?

(Sat May 02 1998 22:38 - ID#348129)
@This should be Great news for GOLD --- All the more reason to hold a high % to back the new EURO..
" Peter Praet, chief economist of Belgium's Generale Bank, said: "The damage is already done...This leaves a very bad taste."
 Both he and Commerzbank economist Juergen Pfister in Frankfurt said the central bank might have to set higher than necessary interest rates when it begins operating next year to restore credibility."
May 2, 1998
FOCUS-EU leaders pick bank chief amid controversy

BRUSSELS, May 3 ( Reuters ) - European Union leaders chose Dutchman Wim Duisenberg on Sunday to head the central bank that will manage their single currency, but the deal curtailing his term was denounced as a disastrous launch for the euro.
 After more than 11 hours of wrangling, the leaders appointed Duisenberg, 62, head of the European Monetary Institute, as president of the European Central Bank nominally for a full eight-year term.
 But under a pre-arranged scenario, he immediately informed them that on age grounds he intended to stand down once euro banknotes and coins replace national currencies in the 11 founder states in 2002, and the summit agreed that French central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet would succeed him.
 Economists in the financial markets scorned the arrangement as a political fudge, saying it would undermine the credibility of the fledgling currency to be launched in January.
 The president of the European Parliament, Jose-Maria Gil Robles, compared the deal to the birth of a deformed baby and told reporters he had "no doubt" it breached the spirit of the Maastricht treaty on European union.
 The parliament can withhold approval from ECB appointments, which would be politically damaging, but it cannot veto them.
 "I would say it's no good at all for the European Central Bank to start like this," Gil Robles said.
 British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who brokered the deal after hours of arm-wrestling among France, the Netherlands and Germany, denied that the outcome was "a fix or a fudge."
 He insisted it preserved what he called the sanctity of the treaty since Duisenberg was retiring of his own free will and would set his own departure date.
 European Commission President Jacques Santer sought to head off any legal challenge by saying that the Commission, as guarantor of EU treaties, certified the agreement's conformity with the letter of the Maastricht treaty.
 When French President Jacques Chirac, who had initially insisted on a specific departure date, told a news conference that Duisenberg had decided entirely of his own accord "for personal reasons" not to complete his term, reporters burst into laughter, drawing a presidential rebuke.
 "Don't laugh, there's no reason," Chirac said.
 The French leader said the agreement had taken so long because of the risk that it might be challenged in countries such as Germany which have constitutional courts.
 The summit appointed Frenchman Christian Noyer, a former Treasury director, as ECB vice-president for four years.
 Other members nominated to the executive board were Bank of Italy board member Tomasso Padoa Schioppa, Bank of Spain board member Domingo Solans, German Bundesbank chief economist Otmar Issing and Bank of Finland governor Sirkka Hamalainen.
 The leaders also agreed that future appointments would take account of the principle of rotation among member states which were not represented initially on the board.
 The horse-trading over the bank presidency overshadowed the historic decision to launch the euro on January 1, 1999, with 11 founder members.
 Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, Austria, Ireland and Luxembourg will form the world's second biggest economy, equivalent in population, output and trade to the United States.
 Britain, Sweden and Denmark opted to stay out of the launch, while Greece intends to join in 2001, by which time it will have met the strict economic convergence criteria.
 The European Parliament formally approved the launch on Saturday with a standing ovation.
 Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok, who faces a general election on Thursday, put a brave face on Duisenberg's truncated mandate, saying it was an undoubted success for the Netherlands and "a good signal to the markets."
 But market economists were withering in their criticism. Peter Praet, chief economist of Belgium's Generale Bank, said: "The damage is already done...This leaves a very bad taste."
 Both he and Commerzbank economist Juergen Pfister in Frankfurt said the central bank might have to set higher than necessary interest rates when it begins operating next year to restore credibility.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:46 - ID#153102)
Boy, those Native Nations sure got a raw deal.
I know it's true that they took the wrong side in the War of Independence and kind of cooked their propsects for good relations with the colonists. But, you know it may all work out in the end. There is a lot of gold in Fort Knox that came out of the Black Hills and Sacramento Valley and if this gold reparation thing becomes the trend it has the potential to be, there will be Indians claiming their great-grandmother's gold is in the US Treasury or in your watchband With these spectroscopes and scintillation meters, there's is just no telling whose gold roving bands of lawyers might be claiming. Can you imagine Inca reparations ?

(Sat May 02 1998 22:50 - ID#256326)
trader ed
I would agree with you generally on S&P's. My count and projections would support a rise to 1152-60, although like you I think the first part of the week will be down.
I haven't quite given up on the bullish gold count yet, but a close under $300 will pretty much kill it. If that happens, the rally you expect to $318 would indeed be a great short.

(Sat May 02 1998 22:53 - ID#287193)
@223.....precious link......California here I come..................
thanks for the post. I like the more pure gold with the hole and a string around the neck.
On your URL I found an instrument which may be of practical use on some of the boys. Check and let me know if you agree.......


(Sat May 02 1998 22:54 - ID#348129)
@Important News to keep Gold Bugs Alive --- Eat OMEGA-3 rich foods --- This has been proven in past
Even "normal'' fat levels may be bad, study finds
7:59 a.m. ET ( 1159 GMT ) May 2, 1998

WASHINGTON, May 2  People who think they have healthy levels of cholesterol may still be at risk of heart disease, researchers said on Saturday.

They said even "normal'' levels of blood fats known as triglycerides were high enough to make heart disease likely.

"Previously, nobody thought triglyceride was a major risk factor at these lower levels,'' Dr. Michael Miller, a cardiologist at the University of Maryland, said in a statement.

So-called normal levels of triglyceride are anywhere between 100 and 200 milligrams per deciliter of blood. This is a standard measurement used around the world.

But Miller's team followed 350 men and women for 18 years, and found those with triglycerides at those levels were 50 percent more likely to have a heart attack, to need heart bypass surgery or angioplasty to treat clogged arteries, or even to die from heart disease.

"This study is the first to look at such a low level of triglyceride. It turned out to be an important predictor of future heart disease,'' Miller said.

Writing in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Miller recommended that guidelines for desirable triglyceride levels be set lower.

"Any level above 100 appeared to increase the risk. It is not like cholesterol, where the higher the level, the higher the risk,'' Miller said.

@@@@ Triglycerides can be broken down with regular exercise, a diet low in fat, and eating food rich in omega-3 fatty acids which include flax or linseed oil, canola oil and some fish. @@@@

In a second study, Miller found that women with heart disease are much less likely to get cholesterol-lowering drugs than men are.

He looked at the cases of 825 men and women with coronary artery disease across the United States and Canada and found half had dangerously high levels of LDL, the so-called "bad'' cholesterol. Twenty percent of them were women.

In 1994, about equal numbers of men and were offered cholesterol-lowering drugs 38 percent of the women and 42 percent of the men.

But by 1997, 54 percent of the men and only 35 percent of the women were being given the drugs. This was despite a number of studies that have shown cholesterol-lowering drugs can save lives.

"We were baffled as to why medication use was not increased in women with heart disease, since all of the recent trials that have shown improvement in heart attack rates and death from heart disease included women,'' Miller said.

"We do need to do more to increase awareness among both physicians and patients,'' he added. ^REUTERS@

My comments:
Just ask yourselves one question --- Eskimos live mostly on a diet of raw
meat and fat --- and yet they have no heart disease --- Why ?
The seal blubber has a huge concetration of Omega-3 fatty acids, the key to getting and staying healthy.

I can provide more info if anyone wants........

(Sat May 02 1998 22:56 - ID#290118)
Inca reparations
The Incas were never conquered!
They assimilated the Spanish ( and I'm not Borg joking )
I'll give you a ream of substantiation.
The people on the altiplano still speak Quechua.
There is still a victim group some fast lawyers could reach to offer them a deal. Oh boy! Does that open a pandoras box!

(Sat May 02 1998 22:57 - ID#340302)
@ALL...F* is back early....
...beach getting too cold for the old guy and his Mrs....but feeling good...feeling refreshed...and enjoying the good news.





(Sat May 02 1998 22:57 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 22:46
Perception Eh! So Be Your's.

European's valued Gold, European's killed for gold. North American ( Turtle Island ) First Nations People, did not.
Take Care

(Sat May 02 1998 23:01 - ID#153102)
You obviously never heard of William Penn.
Anyway, is Turtle Island the heathen term for North America ?

(Sat May 02 1998 23:03 - ID#290118)
ICQ on a Mac PPC
I downloaded, installed, registered, etc. OK
Give me a buzz at if you need help.
At least I'll try.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:06 - ID#340302)
....much to the chagrin of Holland, Belgium, Portugal and all the other smaller European countries, Germany and France cut Wim "Ol' Dutch" Duisenberg down to size. Shortened term...poor old guy won't be around to launch the EURO....and the ultimate capper is...CHRISTIAN NOYER, former FRENCH Treasury Director, will be vice-prez of the ECM and effectively control the ECM treasury.

Even better, because the old EURO is getting off to such a rocky start, me thinks higher GOLD support is in the cards.


Doowah Doowah


EU leaders pick bank chief amid controversy
By Paul Taylor

BRUSSELS ( Reuters ) - European Union leaders chose Dutchman Wim
Duisenberg on Sunday to head the central bank that will manage their
single currency, but the deal curtailing his term was denounced as a disastrous launch for the euro.

After more than 11 hours of wrangling, the leaders appointed
Duisenberg, 62, head of the European Monetary Institute, as president of the European Central Bank nominally for a full eight-year term.

But under a pre-arranged scenario, he immediately informed them that on age grounds he intended to stand down once euro banknotes and coins replace national currencies in the 11 founder states in 2002, and
the summit agreed that French central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet would succeed him.

Economists in the financial markets scorned the arrangement as a political fudge, saying it would undermine the credibility of the fledgling currency to be launched in January.

The president of the European Parliament, Jose-Maria Gil Robles, compared the deal to the birth of a deformed baby and told reporters he had "no doubt" it breached the spirit of the Maastricht treaty on European union.

The parliament can withhold approval from ECB appointments, which would be politically damaging, but it cannot veto them.

"I would say it's no good at all for the European Central Bank to start like this," Gil Robles said.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who brokered the deal after hours of
arm-wrestling among France, the Netherlands and Germany, denied that the
outcome was "a fix or a fudge."

He insisted it preserved what he called the sanctity of the treaty since Duisenberg was retiring of his own free will and would set his own departure date.

European Commission President Jacques Santer sought to head off any legal challenge by saying that the Commission, as guarantor of EU treaties, certified the agreement's conformity with the letter of the Maastricht treaty.

When French President Jacques Chirac, who had initially insisted on a specific departure date, told a news conference that Duisenberg had decided entirely of his own accord "for personal reasons" not to complete his term, reporters burst into laughter, drawing a presidential rebuke.

"Don't laugh, there's no reason," Chirac said.

The French leader said the agreement had taken so long because of the risk that it might be challenged in countries such as Germany which have constitutional courts.

The summit appointed Frenchman Christian Noyer, a former Treasury director, as ECB vice-president for four years.

Other members nominated to the executive board were Bank of Italy board member Tomasso Padoa Schioppa, Bank of Spain board member Domingo Solans, German Bundesbank chief economist Otmar Issing and Bank of Finland governor Sirkka Hamalainen.

The leaders also agreed that future appointments would take account of the principle of rotation among member states which were not represented initially on the board.

The horse-trading over the bank presidency overshadowed the historic decision to launch the euro on January 1, 1999, with 11 founder members.

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, Austria, Ireland and Luxembourg will form the world's second biggest economy, equivalent in population, output and trade to the United States.

Britain, Sweden and Denmark opted to stay out of the launch, while Greece intends to join in 2001, by which time it will have met the strict economic convergence criteria.

The European Parliament formally approved the launch on Saturday with a standing ovation.

Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok, who faces a general election on Thursday, put a brave face on Duisenberg's truncated mandate, saying it was an undoubted success for the Netherlands and "a good signal to the markets."

But market economists were withering in their criticism. Peter Praet, chief economist of Belgium's Generale Bank, said: "The damage is already done...This leaves a very bad taste."

Both he and Commerzbank economist Juergen Pfister in Frankfurt said the central bank might have to set higher than necessary interest rates when it begins operating next year to restore credibility.

EU finance ministers also confirmed on Sunday that EMU would be based on
existing bilateral central rates.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:11 - ID#290118)
Joke on NY?
Turning over the calendar to FY 2000 on April Fools day is asking for trouble. At least its a Thursday.

There are several empty but in fair shape gold and silver mines up here in the mountains. What say we set up a corp. and lease space to those who need a hideout during the coming tribulations. We could even do some mining in our spare time.

No - I am not kidding.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:11 - ID#153102)
I know TIP's ( Turtle Island Peoples ) valued hairpieces more than shiny metal, But, isn't there some truth to the rumor the British and French paid TIO's for colonial hairpieces with, God forbid, gold ?

(Sat May 02 1998 23:13 - ID#340302)
Even Better News for BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD shareholders....
My God, I should go away more often...coming back to a flood of GREAT NEWS!!!!!

I hope some of my Kitco Buddies got on board this train. Looks like BMG is in play. Take note of the last paragraph. What does it mean????

XAU taking off on Monday???? Hmmmmm?

Doowah Doowah




HOUSTON, May 1 ( Reuters ) - Battle Mountain Gold Co. said Friday that it filed a shelf registration for the possible sale by Noranda Inc. ( Tse:NOR ) of all or part of 65 million shares of Battle Mountain beneficially owned by Noranda.

In a statement, Battle Mountain Gold said it would not receive any proceeds from the sale of any of the shares, all of which, if sold, will be for the account of Noranda. Noranda holds an approximately 28 percent chunk of Battle Mountain.

Battle Mountain said a registration statement for the offer was filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective.

Noranda officials said last week they had received expressions of interest in the Battle Mountain stake and were considering whether to take a profit on the investment.

Quote for referenced ticker symbols: Tse:NOR, BMG
 1998, Reuters

(Sat May 02 1998 23:15 - ID#287193)
@mozel....................I agree with you...................than ........
( Date: Sat May 02 1998 02:20

Servhard ( @ mozel...The pure speculators provide liquidity. )

and AGAIN now!

About Indians and Gold,

some sections of your many posts leave me still thinking....


(Sat May 02 1998 23:16 - ID#340302)
@ALL...I haven't had a chance to read all the posts...
...but I promise I will when I get back...or tomorrow. I MUST answer all my Kitco friends.

The wife and I are going out to "trip the light fantastic" and celebrate!!

Doowah Doowah.




(Sat May 02 1998 23:16 - ID#434158)
Y2K progress in largest companies
from TechWeb News, dated May 4, 1998
""A survey of the financial filings from the country's 250 largest companies found that 60 percent have not completed year 2000-compliance assessments, according to Triaxsys, a research and analysis firm.
-Majority of surveyed companies started year 2000 conversion efforts late and have made very little progress.
-The companies have combined year 2000 projected expenses of at least $33 billion; only 20 percent of the total has been spent to date.
-Forty-five percent of companies that discuss risk factors said they may suffer adverse material impacts due to incomplete year 2000 projects.
-Nearly half of surveyed companies did not disclose year 2000 program status or supplied only "boilerplate" information.
-Average company will spend $131 million to reach compliance.""

How do you think a general decline in business due to infrastructure problems would affect a ) gold prices, b ) gold mining stocks?

(Sat May 02 1998 23:17 - ID#335190)
"heathen term" YES. So Sad eh! I am sorry, you consider such terms to be of importance.
Take Care

(Sat May 02 1998 23:25 - ID#244418)
Re: Y2K and April 1, 1999
Not only New York State, but Japan, Britain, and Canada

begin their corporate fiscal year 2000 on April 1, 1999.

New York City begins their fiscal year 2000 on July 1, 1999.

If Japan has not tanked by then, this should finish them

off. It may also trigger bank runs in Japan, which could

furnish an example of things to come here. April 1, 1999

is only eleven months away. Moreover, Big Media is concentrated

in New York City; that is the world to them. When things

breakdown in the State and NYC it will get big media attention.

All of these things will be "ads" for people to buy gold

long before January 1 of 2000.

In a similar golden vein, the highly respected Gartner Group

estimates that 50 million microchips will fail during calendar

year 1999 due to Y2K problems. More highly visible, concrete

examples of the reality of year 2000 chaos, all leading reasonable

people to buy gold.

One article I read said that supertankers would be unable to

get legally required insurance after January 1, of 1999---each

is controlled by numerous chips, and the ship owners must put the

tankers into drydock for several months to do a thorough location,

testing, and replacement job.

Y2k will "ramp up" for a full year before 2000.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:25 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ "heathen term"
"So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your
heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their
view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life,perfect
your life, beautify all things in your life.

Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of
your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you
go over the great divide.

Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing
a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect
to all people and grovel to none.

When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for
the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault
lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns
the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision.

When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts
are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes
they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over
again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a
hero going home."

Chief Tecumseh, Shawnee Nation

(Sat May 02 1998 23:30 - ID#57232)
John Kutyn's article on Vronsky's site
Donald, All: The article is question has some info on Japan, China and South Korea. Just scroll past the 'mind control' bit. If you look at my earlier post this AM, the essentials are also there. What worries me the most is that these 3 countries interact synergistically -- both positively and negatively. China has the least to lose during a financical implosion, as much of their trade is still by barter. The key question is probably how much China will devalue.

For those who don't know, you must remove the 'en-' and substitue '-'.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:34 - ID#348129)
@This was the reason Gold was driven down on Friday --- Of course it was more media BULLSHIT !!!
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 1--COMEX Jun gold settled down $4.30 at $303.60 per ounce
after hitting a 1-month low of $302.50. Gold dropped on a report by Futures
World News quoting the Belgian Finance Minister Philippe Maystadt saying
that Belgium will sell more gold reserves in order to reduce debt. However,
just before COMEX gold closed at 1430 ET, Bridge News reported that
Maystadt said that Belgium has no intention of selling more gold.
* * *
Maystadt denied market rumors that Belgium is planning to sell more
gold. He noted that Belgium had in the past sold gold. "But to avoid any
further confusion, I want to make clear that Belgium has no intention of
selling more gold," he said.
Traders said that a lot of the selling activity in gold on the Maystadt
rumor had been fund-driven and also generated by locals on the COMEX floor.
Some traders predicted that gold could rebound after the weekend. "The
denial came out a few minutes from the close and no one had time to get
out, so we'll probably see some buying on Monday," said one trader.
He said that this could be more concentrated than usual on the New York
market, given that both Japan and the UK will be closed for holidays on
"Gold definitely went down on that rumor, although there's also some
nervousness in the market about who might be appointed as the head of the
European Central Bank and there are fears that they might not be gold-
friendly," said one trader, referring to the weekend meetings when the ECB
head could be chosen by EU leaders.
However, analyst GNI repeated its view that "the level of gold held by
the ECB is irrelevant for the gold market, what is important is the degree
of autonomy the national central banks have in conducting transactions
without informing the ECB." Any requirement of consensus on European gold
sales could take years to achieve an agreement, GNI said.
Meanwhile, silver was weakened both by the dip in the gold price and by
an announcement Thursday that Kodak would be forming a joint venture with
Intel to develop digital imaging systems. While silver dropped on concerns
some have about the impact a push into this technology could have on silver
halide photography, others suggest that it could take some time for it to
achieve good market penetration.
As the largest player in the silver-halide photography sector, Kodak is
one of the largest consumers of silver.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:36 - ID#153102)
@6Pak @S
I think all those heathern terms are important. The best names on the map are the old heathen names. I never heard of Turtle Island before though. It doesn't even sound heathen like Mississippi or Powhatan or Chickasaw or Natchez. It sounds like some place in the Thames.

You may learn something new everyday at Kitco. For example, I never knew Indians, I mean TIP's, spoke German til I visited the link S. gave me. Do you think the Bronfman Commission will be making a reparation demand on TIP's ?

S. Are you in favor of giving gold to Indians or taking it away ? Your posts, some parts of them, confuse me, too.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:38 - ID#335184)
Beardstown Ladies sing this song, DU DA, DU DA !

What do the Beardstown Ladies & the Camptown Ladies have in common ?

Barton Biggs says OEX Earnings are egregiously overstated !
There is always rampant securities fraud & froth & a desperation for any kind of paper issues at a manic top. Witness the "NET" IPOs & last year they even securitized the song royalties of ZIGGY STARDUST, A/K/A "LUV ON YA" DAVID BOWIE !

Does this all end in a blow off top & depression, runaway inflation & still higher stock prices or a general malaise stagflation & vicious slow grinding long term bear market ?

While there is plenty of blind faith, greed & lust to drive the market some what higher, say 9600-9800, the fundamentals at that level will, under any realistic scenario, be beyond rediculous. More importantly liquidity relative to the market Cap would be exausted. Contrary to popular belief there is a practical limit to disposable money supply available to purchase stocks without runaway inflation across the board of the entire economy. The April 15 inspired cash infusions are complete & fully invested. The Fund Manager Wiz Kids are flat out of cash & MOLOCK REQUIRES GREATER VOLUMNS OF FRESH BLOOD TO BE APPEASED. STILL, THE DOW & S&P only timidly nip at their all time highs while the Utilities are disaffirming the DOW & the Market leaders' charts are looking awfully "NECKY". Do not think that domestic demand alone could sustain the DOW above 4000 ! The Bull is bleeding frothy blood from the mouth & nose betraying fundamental internal bleeding that no infusion of money can cure, even if it was stupid enough to jump in at these lofty levels !
US policy is scizo between RR @ Treasury who controls the levers of the plunge protection team ( & the rest of the bogus statistics cooked by the USG ) & AG at the FED with eyes firmly locked in the twin beams of asian depression / tsunamic deflation & spill over inflation ignighted by hugh M3 increases & potential purchasing power pent up in stock values. Ofcourse he wants to jaw bone & let things down easy into one of his magnificent three point "soft landings", except this time it's a swan dive with an exponential degree of difficulty and the judges panel is heavily waited with an East German, a Bulgarian & a Lybian.
A blow off top ? I don't think there's anything left to blow off, nor anything left to blow it off with. That paradigmatic malox moment of realization of sheer overvaluation will be the trigger ( perhaps spurred by rapid & complete capitulation of the Nippon economy, banks & stock market ) & then there will be 1 or 2 Bear trap rallies descending into stagflation ( some will call it depression ) & a long term grinding Bear. AG & CO. will push on the string & or stomp on the gas or chase the bon fire of the vanities with higher rates, but they will have a hard time catching up to the curve & headstart they have already given the hare.

That's the Rosey scenario. What happens in a liquidity crunch or a blowoff run is that all those electrons that in a non-crazed environment would be chasing real goods & services like Chevy Trucks or Personal Consultants to Dick Morris, disappear into thin air & constitute an instantanious critical contraction to the "putative" money supply of, oh let's just say $6.5 Trillion. My gee, what impact would that have & how do you reinfuse that ??? No matter if this makes the price of AU go down some what as historical precedent would suggest as every thing suffers a genral price decline. The crucial thing to realize is that the supply of Electron $S relative to the supply of GOLD is vastly reduced & the purchasing power of GOLD will be amazing relative to the price of goods & services. Either the price of AU rises or remains relatively constant as general prices fall.
To "regain control" of MONEY the USG can at ths point pull an FDR & confiscate & outlaw AU or do the sane thing & declare a free market in GOLD ( IE, A NEW GOLD STANDARD ) in affect allowing AU to "real value up" to equalibrium price ( HERE PLUG ANY NUMBER YOU LIKE BETWEEN $600 & 60,000 ) & ofcourse attaching a punitive "PROGRESSIVE" "WINDFALL PROFITS TAX", call it the "BOB DOLE TAX FAIRNESS & KULAK ADJUSTMENT ACT" ( "BDTFKAA" ) . But that would mean the cat would be out of the bag and the USG would have to earn an honest living and actually tax it's current surfs for USG programs instead of using IOUS ,a la public debt, to the tune of $21 TRILLION or bogus promises of future perfomance, a la social security & medicare. It is passing truly strange that the politicians, especially Republicans, with any basic knowledge of MONEY, can declare "budget surplus" euphoria, merely by slightly lowering the capital gains tax rate & then gunning the stock market with ooodles of funny fake money, recollecting it and declaring victory over our bloated expenditures vs GDP, while our tax rates are still at a war time footing, more than at any time since the early 40s.
The ultimate truth is that even with the Alchemic electron $ powers of the FED, you cannot control the MONEY SUPPLY, any more than ALGORE can control the supply of termite flatulence, because paper is not MONEY, only AU is the real thing. This experiment since the GUNS of August tore apart the classical world has brought such economic repression ( YEES, relative to the utopia & stability & progress that real MONEY would engender ) and misery to the 20th century must surly come to an end when the people grab this truth. The intellectual class will never embrace it because it would "appear" to subject them to limits in their totalitarian propensities to control & engineer everything & worse to be governed themselves by an external unseen hand of honesty. In fact, it would open the door to a new GOLDEN AGE OF FELICITY AND MATERIAL ABUNDANCE THEY WOULD NOT HAVE TO NIGGARDLY PARCE OUT LIKE CONCENTRATION CAMP PRISON GAURDS DEVIDE THE GRUEL. It will indeed require some kind of Capurnican paradigmatic shift, but stranger things have happened. Like Jefferson said a little revolution now & then is a good & he might add necessary thing !
I hope the blow back is strong enough to shock the system into reform & that leadership will arise with a bloodless vision.
FWIW, I think we will enter the Bear trap malaise by August or in the October tradition with the real catalyst for the more serious scenario induced by the second paradigmatic shift realization that the Y2K GUN REALLY WAS LOADED !

As Tiny Tim said. "GOD BLESS US ALL, EVERY ONE".
And as Tinker Bell said, " Let your judgement be your guide."




(Sat May 02 1998 23:40 - ID#57232)
China -- forward and reverse exchange rates

(Sat May 02 1998 23:42 - ID#259400)
@Farfel The Magnificent
What do you see for gold ( physical ) and the XAU for the next 30, 60 and 90 days. By the way, I hope you had a good trip to the beach.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:43 - ID#57232)
Inside China today -- News about Korea

(Sat May 02 1998 23:46 - ID#57232)
South Korean surplus -- due to lack of imports
These imports are needed to keep up production -- not good.

(Sat May 02 1998 23:48 - ID#57232)
News about Japan -- same source as others below

(Sat May 02 1998 23:56 - ID#57232)
Current news about Hong Kong