I am long gold for the third time since '96. The first 2 forays lasted one day each. This time I've been in 5 whole weeks---from $298 on 3/23. If we close below Friday's low, I'll reverse to a light short position. I would then short heavily on any rally. A close below Friday's low means new lows, probably below $250. As the Klintonistas become stronger, the US$ and US equities do likewise. Gold is NOT in their plan. They control the world through their control of the fiat money system. Every blow landed on Big Bubba that does not kill him makes them stronger. Dont stand in the way of the Klinton Express if gold breaks Friday's low. These people play for keeps. Whether they will win or not should be known with some certainty this week. If gold DOES breakdown, the next dip in S&P, which should start Monday, will be a great buying opportunity.

Let's face it. TIP's just have no talent for victimhood. I mean, being as sympathetic to the case for TIP victim status as possible, I still can't get it out of my head that GIP's ( Government Issue People ) yell Geronimo when they jump out of aircraft. I mean Geronimo is a hero name. The caught him and locked him up, but he was never their victim. There was just too much dignity in him.

It's like Crazy Horse. They named a bar after him. You don't name bars after victims. You name bars after admired men.

No, I think the TIP's gave as good as they got. Maybe better. So, they ended up having to share the continent. That doesn't make them victims. I just don't think victimhood becomes them. Can you imagine a great man like Tecumseh applying for reparations ? I can't.

http://www.scmp.com/news/special/AsianCrisis/Index.asp?Article_Id=19980501163744167&folio=CRIS-Main

Apparently direct selling is banned ( 1 week ago ) . This was done by a number of foreign firms that employ local chinese as ( door-to-door? ) salespeople. They were originallly laid off from Chinese government jobs.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980428024520046?=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=1981?evID=19980502015257033//?evTop=china//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=1963//

Mozel: Reparations are in progress. Via the "TIP" casinoes. And most are doing damn well. ....... Even better, you and I have the option of not contributing a dime. I like that a lot.

One thing American TIP's have a legitimate beef over is the two-faced federal judicial treatment of the word treaty.
On that score, if honoring their sovereign treaty status is reparations ( which distorts the word beyond recognition ) , I'm all in favor.
But, they ain't got no talent for victimhood. Got too much manhood in 'em for that.

Oldman: Thanks -- looks like much of the Gold bearishness is that the new EURO bank chairman is not a German or similar gold bug. Also Frank Veneroso now says that European CB gold sales could extend to June or later. What are your thoughts about the US markets -- up for now? What puzzles me is that the computer stocks are heading for the stratosphere, but I cannot see any bullish trend in earnings. If the computer stocks fizzle, the rest of the US markets are likely to droop too. Thanks in advance!

By the way -- we are on the lookout for a China or Japan - launched financial Tsunami. No official word on a Yuan devaluation, yet.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980425005048011?=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=2933?evID=19980428024520046/19980502015257033//?evTop=rel/china//?evTemp=archived.htx/Default.htx//?evMFS=1981/1963//

This does not sound like free enterprise -- it sounds like the Chinese leaders are tighening the noose. Trouble ahead?

You heard about the problems INCO ( N-T and NVB.NY, ) has with Voisey's Bay and the native Indians. We know now that Inco will be dealing with 2 different groups of native's and they want to be partners.

What I think is of little consequence. When you go back into the BREMEN thread and look, you find strong political connections the natives have managed to establish all over the world. In time these political friends will help them to break even strong, but unfair treaties.
We are dealing with market forces able to upset markets like Forest Products, Fisheries and I believe there is a lot of room for unexpected surprises in the PM markets. These problems may lead in time to much higher level prices. The Native's have used the power of public opinion to get what they want. They should ask for real Gold or partnerships.
To late to write more.
S.

http://www.scmp.com/news/special/AsianCrisis/

JTF: As I posted here recently, I expect a huge rally in stocks after the present correction is completed. I expect the April low will be tested this week. The May low will be a buy on the order of the January low. At the time I posted, I thought the coming rally would bring a top of some significance. If gold fails here, though, and the bond rallies, then we have much further to go to the stock top. If the gold bear and the bond bull are to continue, the stock bear probably wont come until after Hillary is safely elected in '00. I despise the Klintonistas and what they are doing to us. But I learned early on not to underestimate them. Their ambition and ability are monumental. They know that they cannot survive if the stock bull dies, so they will use all the power of the Western world to kill gold and protect their precious paper. It's still a bull market in stocks. If gold closes below Friday's low, its still a bear in gold. Sleepytime. Goodnite all.

"Indian" was given in error by Columbus, who thought he had reached the approaches to India. European names Algonkian - Chippewa - Iroquoian ( Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida and Mohawk ) - eskimo ( Sarqaq, Thule, came from districts named in West and North west Greenland & Umiak & Cree & Algonkian group inhabiting the Maritimes ) - Athapaskan ETC. ETC.

Soooo, what is European "heathen term" and true first nations terms. First Nations did not record, via, written reports to masters of commerce, as was the case with European's. First nations had a different form of history recording.

Practically every European "discoverer" of the New World cited:
"It appears to us that "they" had no laws [and] live in complete liberty" ( Giovanni Verrazzano 1524 )

"These people live as it were in community of goods" ( Jacques Cartier, 1534 )

"There is no government amoung the SAVAGES" ( Samuel de Champlain, 1633 )

"The SAVAGES are utter strangers to distinction of Property, for what belongs to one is equally another's" ( Baron de La Hontan, 1702 )

The name "CANADA" probably came from the Huron-Iroquois "KANATA" meaning a village or settled community Cartier uses it in his Narrative, 1534-35 "Hochelaga and Canada, also called New France." During the French regime the two names Canada and New France were roughly interchangeable.

In a stricter sense, however, "New France" designated the French possessions in North America in their entirety ( including Louisiana ) while "CANADA" referred to the colony on the St. Lawrence, from which "ACADIA" ( Nova Scotia ) was distinct.

Reparation Demands:
GOLD = European value
Gold = Land, Water, "Mother Earth" - First Nations Value, Gold. YES.

Sorry if my posts confuse you. I expect, that sometimes the subject gets a life of it's own, and yes, it gets confusing.

Especially such a complex subject, the issue of "GOLD" "PROPERTY" "GREED" etc.
FWIW...Take Care

Has anyone successfully communicated on the ICQ? How are you registered?

No surprise -- IMF wants to be bank of last resort.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980501015700077?=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=3177?evID=19980502001120046//?evTop=biz//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=3848//

All: Mayday is an important day in communist countries -- not a time for riots, normally. Unrest on or near a day like this in China is not good news - this may be why the direct marketing was banned. Wonder what the jobless will do if they can't direct market.

Well, the whatchamaycallem's were no angels.
There were 500 Nations in North America. I'd like to see a map drawn by them. If they could ever agree on one. Boundaries moved around here just like they did in Europe. On the war path was not a concept brought here by Europeans.

Been thinking about fractals. Now what is a fractal? A fractal is that which illustrates the saying, "as above, so below." We all have seen those colorful, spiraling pictures of fractals. If you look closely, the most minute patterns of the fractal reflect the largest overall pattern. The implication is that the pattern continues ad finitum to ever larger and smaller themes. Such fractal themes are seen in nature as well. Ever looked at a close up of a flower? The individual fractal patterns of a rose, at the microscopic level, continue seamlessly on until they reaches that level where we see a Rose.

Oldman: I agree -- BC et al must keep the markets up -- at all cost. Never thought gold would be this weak by this time. I never expected such an anemic beginning to the EURO launch either. Makes the dollar look strong by comparison. A gold rally due to a weak EURO ( crisis ) will take at least 6 months -- honeymoon must end first.

So, there are little people running around inside of us ?

Heh, heh. Reminds me of the saying, "All small fleas have those big fleas that bite 'em. And those big fleas have bigger fleas, and so on, ad infinitum."

Religion: has how many nations ? YET, GOD exists as one ?
"on the war path" is NOT a European term, most interesting.

Go along, to get along. This is a term from what culture ?

Show respect to all people and grovel to none. ( Chief Tecumseh, Shawnee Nation )

Consider if you will, the millions of first nations people killed by European illness. Europeans did not use the gun to kill millions of first nations people. The Europeans brought friendly bugs to do the dirty work.
War Path,most likely is a "movie term"

FWIW Take Care.

Well, this is very exciting, about as exciting as installing new software.

New number is 11961385. Sounds better than my social security number, anyway.

Email is registered as promey@icqkitco.com. Nickname Prometheus.
But there are bunches of chat room possibilities and we aren't in Investments. Are we anywhere yet?

@6Pak There was no census so you are plucking numbers out of grievance. Take it up with the bugs. Next you will want reparations for Hong Kong Flu.

@Auric Infinite regression has some deep appeal to the psyche. I wonder if E-Wave study is not an expression of the attraction to infinite regression.

E-wave is an attempt to explain observed patterns that occur in nature and markets in mathematical terms. The idea is that numerical relationships that occur in nature, such as Fibonacci ratios, can be usefully applied to market behavior in a way that you can make money. The patterns observed in E-wave seem to be as numerous as those who observe. It all gets back to the observer, eh?

Prometheus,

Successful communication defined as they read what I typed and vice versa - yes. Do I know how I fell into it - no. I've got some homework to do.

I registered under my actual e-mail address, my nickname here, and my first and last names. I wish to be fully responsible for what I may post here. But I left the other options - address, phone, etc. - blank.

If someone wishes to find their way to my mountain redoubt to help me discuss philosophy, they are welcome. Open-Loop and Digdeep know what I mean. Some critters laze in the sunshine, some plan to walk through the valley of death, while the squirrels get ready for winter. Unlike tolerant1, silence {in that respect} is GOLDEN - that is how you can tell which nuts will sprout in the spring and which ones the worms will get. The Golden Caterpillars have much wisdom to share - that is why I am here.

After Printing 10 k worth of gift certificates I feel like the Fed ---easy money Mike Sheller Changes in your life? I have been to hell and back since February Now heading to purgatory Good Night Earth

I fumbled about for a half hour or so, looking for a way to communicate to others. Found everything but that. Someone probably knows and will post it sooner or later.

Good to be a squirrel. Winter always comes. Besides, it sounds warm and furry. Always had trouble identifying with the ant in the Grasshopper/ant story.

Are you new to this site?

There may not be little people inside us, but there are some really cool looking monster mites living on our eyelids.

Good evening! Have you been trying to piss off 6pak just for the he ( ck ) of it?

For "retired soldier"
If you're calling me a bigot .. dont tell my wife..
She's Jewish.
But if you're looking for trouble .. I'm your MAN.
And Im UNimpressed and I WISH I was a lot closer

Squirrel,

Do tell us of these golden caterpillars, squire.

Mike Sheller ---Most humans never see change only greed --Seeing and feeling change around you as others sleepwalk is Pure Awareness .The mind joining the Universe with its own individual flavor yet still connected to the body and common people ---At last Goodnight.

I got your reply thanks.

Are there any other Kitco users using icq, if so how do we find them

wombat

G'day, a cuzzie from across the ditch! I have no idea what this does, but Promey and I Have been Queueing in the Ice for a little while.

I mean Icey Queueing

still having trouble with 68K Mac chat download. Not the same as PPC download.

Could you please go back onto ICQ? Wombat and I are trying to set up a 3 way chat, but need you. Is anybody else coming on?

Contact me at 11961385.

I seek you - ICQ
Iv'e got mine on.

If anyone thinks the idea has merit, I can set up a majordomo mailing list ... ( anyone can join, one email address sends message to everyone on list )

sounds good, yes? no?

comments? thoughts?

http://www.icq.com/icqtour/new-quicktour.html

@ Winston__A ( Re: Y2K and April 1, 1999 )
Date: Sat May 02 1998 23:25

One article I read said that supertankers would be unable to
get legally required insurance after January 1, of 1999---each
is controlled by numerous chips, and the ship owners must put the
tankers into drydock for several months to do a thorough location,
testing, and replacement job.

**Please could you supply the article url or site.**

NO SHIPS - NO OIL
NO SHIPS - NO GLOBAL TRADE
NO SHIPS - IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Australia is feeling the effects of this with the recent wharf strikes.
Chaos ensues

Ask a wharfie.

To anyone ..
I use windows95. But whenever I
download ICQ and try to install it..
it says I have the WRONG VERSION.
How do I find out what so called
"version" I have and what does the
"NT4" in windows95/nt4 stand for??
Northern territories ??? Nose
turnips ??? I give up !!

"NO SHIPS-NO OIL"--Yeah, the big boys, including ANOTHER's pals, would be in deep sh!t if that is true.

You need the version for Win95
not the'NT' operating system

Use for Win95:
ICQ for Windows 95/NT4
http://38.180.207.25/download/step-by-step.html>http://38.180.207.25/download/step-by-step.html

Print out the article I just posted before you start using it.
It is realatively easy to use but quirky till know what you are doing.

Home page
http://www.icq.com/

Download site
http://38.180.207.25/download/

I'm just trying to relate to 6Pak. On the level.

Can one or all come to my house and install this damnible ICQ thingie ?

I'm running straight ''Windows NT 4.0" and it ain't workin.... I had better luck at the races yesterday! Any suggestions????? Good day from the chilly midwest........bbml

for sharefin
I was at that site .. but
I cant figure out how to download
the windows95 piece without the
Nose Turnips part..
If I try to go to the site you
gave me read about things on ..
it tells me "access denied" in very
big letters.
Sorry to be such a dumb@ss .. I
feel this is maybe not for me ..
and I am in some way cursed

Sorry it took so long to get back to you - after rereading you orginal post @1:55 and your summary just after lunch. I understand your posts. I even agree with you on the subsidy part. I just normally don't think of 'banks' as governments. That is where you lost me - I shouldn't just jump into discussions without reading a day or two around them.

for Ersel
I went to the races yesterday too!!
Maybe that's the problem

I'm trying to work out what triggers
Will produce what responses regarding Y2K.

We know if there is no electricity
Then the dramas to unfold will be absolutely chaotic.

If the financial system goes it will be chaotic.

What are the triggers and when do they fall?
1/Jan/99
1/April/99
1/June/99
1/July/99
21/August/99
9/September/99 - please excuse if I've left any out.

The the big one - 1/Jan/2000

There will be tests etc. up to these dates
But real problems will become visible from these dates onwards.

So this mention of ships being "quarantined" 1/Jan/99
Is close to the front of the trigger system.

Merely because of the legal system - insurance.

Theoretically the ship would be fine up till the day of the GPS roll-over and I've read that this will pose a small problem.

The reactions to these triggers as they fall one by one
Will give one a sence of how chaotic Y2K will be.

Do we get a couple of cartons of Fosters and turn on the TV?
Or do we get out of town real quick?

for ersel ..
How come your windows95 has four
nose turnips and mine doesnt .. or
does it ??

Can't do IRQ on my Webtv. But you can watch Kitco on a big screen TV in a recliner.

...you have ninety five windows and I'm still in the dark.. Yes...Horsees "R'' us...really gotta go .....bbl

Just an anecdote. My wife distributes a skin care line from a network marketing company- Quorum Int., founded by a Hong Kong businessman.
Quorum does business in Western Europe, North America & Hong Kong, and so the CEO decided to expand into mainland China ( this was in 1995, before reunification. ) They got offices in Canton, Shanghai & Peking and set about getting ready to recruit distributors.

On opening day in Canton, more than 1000 people mobbed the office wanting to join & start distributing. This caught the attention of the police, since large groups of people assembling for any reason is regarded suspiciously in China ( freedom of assembly is a Western concept. ) Fortunately, the CEO had taken the precaution of "befriending" the local police chiefs in the relevant cities : ) so they let the registrations go ahead. The Chinese gov't decided, though, that they would not allow Quorum to operate on a "network" marketing concept, only as a direct sales company along the lines of Tupperware.

The Chinese gov't is very paranoid about people having loyalty to anything other than the gov't, whether a company, or especially a group of people organized as a support group like you find in network marketing. In fact, person-to-person networks of any kind are likely to attract the attention of the authorities in China.

- Steve

Try here
This is the version for Win95/NT - works for both.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/icq98a.exe

What is your opinion on the state of S. African Au stocks? Are they still undervalued? Which stocks would you say represent the bast value at the moment?

Why is everybody trying to download this ICQ thing? Is Kitco setting up a real-time chat, or something? ( How's that for being out-to-lunch : )

- Steve

I'm gonna get some SA Gold stocks too. Hopefully your brother can help us in our selection, eh?

Read your South Korean posts of last night. For the life of me I can't figure out why I keep hearing the Asian crisis is over. Almost as often as the China won't devalue chant. The crisis is not over, won't be for years, and will roll around the world.

http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Xweekly.html

http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard30.html

http://nypostonline.com/business/1481.htm

What is Auger's forcasting record? I don't usually pay much attention to the voodoo chartists, but like to keep an open mind. Inpathique is saying up, Auger is saying down, and DJ's channels look to be correcting for another up move. I prefer my 'see-through plastic ruler on the chart with stop losses, buy at lower resistance, sell at upper resistance and not too much greed' method. Sold a heap of gold shares Friday ( Thursday your time ) as you did. Don't know why. No stops approached--just had a lousy feeling. $4 drop proved me right. When to buy them back?? Next week??--unless something dramatic happens. Don't forget my Auger ?? cheers, N.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980501/us_experts_1.html

is declining by the hour. We have projections now of 60 on the XAU - that's a 25-30% decline from here, suggesting gold could see $250.

As I said earlier this weekend, it's ironic but it looks like the big winners on this gold chat board will be the short sellers...

I am most concerned what the economies of the world will look like if we see $250 gold and 60 again on the XAU. Maybe things will be great - the dollar King, the stock market rallying well past 10,000, bonds under 5.75%, oil well contained under $18, probably under $16, the CPI at zero,
Clinton's popularity at new all time highs

OR

a flight to anything dollar denominated by a world imploding on itself with the only liquidity remaing in the US and Europe.

Either way gold falls - IS GOLD DEAD.????

Give me ONE, I ask for ONE senerio under which gold will rally that has any basis on the facts and circumstances we have witnessed and experienced in the last two years.

Gold is on the mat, down for the count - ONE SENERIO, I ASK FOR under which gold will rally, given more central bank sales, deflation, devaluation, stock market crashes, rallies - there plain ain't one - eight, nine, ten, the bull in gold is KNOCKED OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think his record is pretty good. Byron ( miss him ) followed him longer than myself. He spurred my own interest in the XAU and I lightened up my position by 25% on Thursday due to the very high XAU/Spot Ratio. Carl also has fears based upon his independent work. Second highest in history as I recall. It could wiggle a little higher here but there is a lot of risk. High XAU/Spot Ratios also correctly called the 1987 drop ( we now know from hindsight ) so I would be very cautious here. That is a lot of evidence and worth considering. Maybe even a short is in order.

A few interesting points mentioned in The latest Barrons... 75% of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are trading above their 200-day moving average, according to the Laszlo Birinyi One rule of thumb is that a market is clearly overbought if 80% or more of the stocks are trading above their 200-day averages. If 20% or less are trading above the average, then the market is considered clearly oversold. One of the most important tenets of technical analysis holds that stock prices cannot long remain at levels far above their 200-day moving average. This view applied to the overall market suggests that some sort of a correction is due. Right now the stocks in the S&P 500, for example, are trading 11% above their 200-day moving average.

some more from that same article.......Richard McCabe, Merrill Lynch's chief market analyst, notes that as the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, the number of stocks trading above their 200-day averages is actually decreasing. For example, only about 58% of New York Stock Exchange stocks are now trading above their 200-day average. That's well below the 85% seen early last October. But given the height of the market, this isn't necessarily a sign of sanity emerging. In fact, it means that fewer stocks are powering the market's recent rallies. "That indicates the late stage of a bull market," McCabe says. Such a pattern can continue for nine months to a year, and then it is often followed by a market decline of 15%-20%, he says. If more stocks don't start joining in the rally, McCabe expects a 20% drop, either later this year or in 1999.

a washington post article this morning on the emu agreement yesterday. The french tried to muck the thing up at the last minute, but it seems a compromise was reached and the german candidate for head of the thing will be in control during the important formative stage. this means there is a *much* better chance the emu will work properly and be a real threat to the dominance of the u.s. dollar, over time

i have been told that the emu will be partially backed by gold. is this already decided? how much? it's pretty exciting stuff because it might mean a move to a worldwide gold standard again, kind of an end run?

i hope it *is* backed by gold and done soin a very credible way. i, for one, will want some eurobased deposits. i think it will be 2002 or so before euorbonds are issued, but i hear that a "shadow" or "when issued" market will be avialable much earlier.

of course, there is already an ecu "unit" trading, recently at about $1.10 to the dollar. the dispute over the head of the euro over the weekend, could weaken some european currencies on monday, since it was unexpected. so we will just have to see if this is the sign of deeper problems or not. it could be that the french, now that they have had their little snit, will go back quietly to their wine and cheese. : )

If I had to guess I'd say now that Monday may start off strong as a continuation of Friday.......but it could fall fast as a reaction to one of the Barron's articles that talks about 50 stocks that may have gotton ahead of themselves.......

and the 50 stocks are:......
Lucent Technologies-LU..Nacco Industries-NC ..Gateway 2000-GTW
Dell Computer-DELL...Viacom B-VIAB.Pfizer-PFE
Unisys-UIS ...ALZA-AZA ...EMC-EMC
Beneficial-BNL.Maytag-MYG..Ford Motor-F
Lowe's-LOW.General Instrument-?...Bethlehem Steel-BS
US West Media-UMG ..Fruit of the Loom-FTL....Walt Disney-DIS
Warner-Lambert-WLA..HBO & Co.-HBOC .Xerox-XRX
AirTouch Communi-ATI..Darden Restaurants-DRI .EG&G-EGG
Apple Computer-AAPL.Providian Financial-PVN ..Kmart-KM
Morg Stanley Dn Witter-MWD ....Gap-GPS.US Airways-U
Inland Steel-IADTandy-TAN....Lehman Brothers-LEH
Ceridian-CEN.Mellon Bank-MEL.Becton Dickinson-BDX
Dresser Industries-DI.Battle Mountain Gold-BMG...Cardinal Health-CAH
Time Warner-TWX...TJX-TJX .Tele-Communications TCOMA
Cisco Systems-CSCOIllinois Tool Works-ITW.Clear Channel Comm-CCU
Costco-COST....Honeywell-HON. H.F. Ahmanson-AHM
Microsoft-MSFT...Tellabs-TLAB..Echlin-ECH
MCI Communications-MCIC

ps........those stocks are listed in descending order as a percent of price above their 200-day moving average.......

I think his record is pretty good. Byron ( miss him ) followed him longer than myself. He spurred my own interest in the XAU and I lightened up my position by 25% on Thursday due to the very high XAU/Spot Ratio. Carl also has fears based upon his independent work. Second highest in history as I recall. It could wiggle a little higher here but there is a lot of risk. High XAU/Spot Ratios also correctly called the 1987 drop ( we now know from hindsight ) so I would be very cautious here. That is a lot of evidence and worth considering. Maybe even a short is in order.

The ICQ is solving a problem I have had with my ISP. They will disconnect you if there is no traffic on the connection for ( they say ) 15 minutes. It seems more like 10 minutes. The ICQ sends out a regular signal so there is traffic on the line within that cut-off point. Lets me stay alive when I am composing something or scanning/reading previous posts.

Sharefin: The following is a listing of potential Y2k events prepared on the Strategic Investment Forum, initiated by yours truly, but contributed to by all:

Y2K POTENTIAL EVENTS DATE EVENT BY ON

04/01/98 Canada,Japan FY '99 Tommy 03/23/98

07/01/98 NewZealand FY '99 Tommy 03/23/98

07/01/98 46 States FY '99 Steve 03/07/98

10/01/98 Fed Gov't FY 1999 Steve 03/07/98

01/01/99 Calendars - to '99 Steve 03/07/98

01/01/99 Argentine FY1999* Tommy 03/23/98

03/15/99 OMB Gov't Deadline L Bear 03/19/98

04/01/99 Canada,Japan FY '00 Tommy 03/23/98

04/06/99 British Acct'g Chg M Bear 03/17/99

07/01/99 46 States FY 2000 Steve 03/07/98

07/01/99 Public "Wakes Up" P Bear 03/07/98

08/22/99 GPS Satellites Steve 03/07/98

10/01/99 Fed Gov't FY 2000 M Bear 03/20/98

12/24/99 Get Out of the Market DC 03/07/98 12/31/99 Y2k - The Big One All

02/29/00 Leap Year 2000 Steve 03/07/98 * Most So. Amer. Countries

______ ____________________ _______ _______ Past Dates& Comment

03/20/98 OMB Fourth Report jacea NKR NKR=No Known Response

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/library/lottery/lottery0503a.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Year 2000 Bug Could Bring Flood of Lawsuits
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/washtech/daily/may98/y2k050398.htm
Corporate executives complain that people already are so afraid of being sued that they can't get a straight answer from their banks, suppliers or vendors on whether their computer systems will be ready to function in the new century. Requests for information about readiness are routed through lawyers not technicians who send out boilerplate language saying the company is working hard and is highly confident its systems will be ready.

At the same time, insurance companies are furiously rewriting policies and seeking legislative changes to protect them from what they expect to be a wave of claims and finger pointing when computer systems fail.

****************** THIS CONCERNS YOU ***************
"They knowingly sold them a product that was materially defective and failed to disclose that," said Salvatore J. Graziano, a Milberg lawyer representing Atlaz, which is seeking more than $50 million from SBT. "Our position is that the upgrades should be given for free."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
( Sounds like Microsoft
They sold the world Windows95 and Office97 knowing full well that they had Y2K bugs. )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"There's going to be a huge impact on the insurance industry," Muller said. "Because the industry has deep pockets, we expect [trial lawyers] to do everything possible to drag us into these disputes."

Donald - All - This little program will solve your connection problem. http://www.inklineglobal.com/index.html

who will initially oversee the first four years of the Euro currency ( or until he decides to retire, excuse me ) . The EURO will NOT BE BACKED by GOLD - repeat NOT BACKED BY GOLD. Gold may in some yet to be announced or probably decided amount be part of the "reserves" of the new currnecy its banks and related beuracratic aperatus.

Noticed there were not any gold stocks mentioned in those over extended above their 200 day moving average - no there arn't and the few that are are falling along with the XAU soon to levels at or below the Janauary lows - haven't you heard - the Gold embrionic bull is DEAD.

Jims:
Are you sure there was a decision made NOT to BACK THE EURO WITH GOLD ??

Or is the decision postponed ???

Alberich the Dwarf

will not be announced until first of June. Additionally there have been good posts all weekend from good sources noting that the here to fore thought to be completed central bank selling is NOT complete and may be either squeezed in the window before the first of June or allowed to be extended through the remainder of '98. Bearishness abounds.

Woke up. Went to the toilet. Flushed. It didn't refill. Water's down, thinks I. Went downstairs. Put on the jug for a cup of java. Nothing. Electricity is down, thinks I. Crank up the generator--lived in a developing nation for 9 years--no electricity half the time. Hooked up the computer and TV--gotta get my Kitco fix and CNBC. Nothing. Hmmmmmmmmm. Something's going on here. Plug the radio into the generator. Nothing. Hmmmmmmmmm. Pick up the phone to call my neighbour. Nothing. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Get into my new car. Turn the key. Nothing. Hmmmmmmmmm. Get into my old van. Turn the key. About bloody time something worked!!! Drive into town. Mob outside the bank. Drive to the supermarket. Mob breaking in and looting. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Go back home. Check the supplies of water, food, fuel, cash, protection, 'you-know-what'. Lock the doors. Look at the calendar ( 01-01-2000 ) . Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.Go back to bed. Must have been a nightmare!!

Wake up, ..............................................

between "backing" and "reserves" Gold will be held in some amount in some fashion as a "reserve" for the Euro. The Euro will not be "backed" by gold.

The meeting thins weekend demonstrated the fragility of the Euro and the politics that still surround and swirl about its inception. Its challenge to the dollar was not done any good by the discord over who would be the Euro bank President. The compromise was seen as a little wishy washy, too.

All in all bullish for the dollar - and guess what BEARISH FOR GOLD!!

I'm still waiting to hear ONE just ONE economic/political/socialogical senerio that has a half a#% chance of happening that is bullish for gold.

Nothing, nota, zip, zero, The new gold bull is dead.

Buying a sh*t load of index put options just before he resignes.

Now plumetting to new lows. Almost time to buy gold/shares again!! Will make even more on the next move up. Stop losses--will sleep well!! N.

Well, looks like there is a basic misunderstanding of the EURO and Gold relationship. Now, is the EURO going to have Gold backing or not? I don't trust this EURO thing. Too much confusion. If the EURO doesn't come out clear and strong on Gold, and soon, it's going to crash and burn!

USAGOLD ( Sometimes linked on this page ) reported on Friday morning that there are rumours that Merrill Lynch was strong on the selling side at the close Thursday perhaps triggering the end of month weakness.

Usagold says that those speculating short in the June contract, like allegedly Merrill & allegedly some bullion banks, have to be concerned about 2 recent important developments:

1. Possible termination of forward selling by producers in light of the harm it is likely doing to shareholders.

2. The likely termination of selling by Euro CB's and the possible end to CB lending as it could be problematic under new EU rules.

http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

http://www.asiachart.com/
A free weekly service offering forecasts of 10 Asian stock markets:
Hongkong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand

The EURO is still paper. It will be printed and controlled by a Federal European Bureaucracy. Now why the Hell would Europe add another complicated layer of Government upon themselves, and expect it to solve their problems? I'm guessing the EURO will not have a promise to redeem in a specified amount of Gold, like the SDR Gold Franc does. I'm guessing the EUROcrats don't have the nerve.

Are you still publishing the Antipodian news letter? I never sent in the $10,001, but would enjoy more free introductory copies. TIA

Everyone should read Peter Eliades on page 22. Sign of the Bear.
Also, Alan Abelson is suggesting margin might be increased to something higher than 50%

Haven't collected the $10,001 from Auric yet!! He was gonna be the Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter's first paying customer!! Was working on a new issue called 'The Anatomy of the Gold Market" -- but it was rather rude--so didn't post--and then I got derailed by the real world ( subtitled: 'How not to lose your ass ( ets ) while publishing a financial newsletter' ) . We may have a reprise soon!!

PS--am still waiting for Andy Smith to send his $10,001!!!!

Wouldn't that be a hoot if the EURO wasn't Gold-backed because they don't have the Gold to back it with?

In his newsletter several months back, Harry Schultz criticized Alan Greenspan for not increasing margin requirements.

And if they were to do that, I suppose they would need a grace period or grandfather clause so that much selling doesn't happen on the same day.

BTW, did anyone mention that So. Korea's stock index was down 3.49% on Saturday trading. At 406.53 it is dangerously close to 400 support.

Already 'plummeted' to new lows.

Can't understand it. Sent the check out long time ago. Shame ya can't depend on the Post Office these days, eh.

"...In connection with this, someone told me yesterday that a relatively senior Hong Kong monetary official was quoted in the press the past couple of days saying that Hong Kong would re-allocate some US$ assets
to the Euro if gold was going to play a more prominent role than is currently envisioned..."

My we are bearish on gold this morning...I believe that the slamming of gold last Thursday ( while Clinton was talking ) and again on Friday was a message to the EC and any ( AN ) OTHERS that the USG controls the POG....and until someone else can put a carrier fleet anywhere in the world in 4 days ...WE SET THE POG!!! The EC has been put on notice...mess with Texas ( or US ) at your own peril. The time is not right for the EC, Arab States, or Far East to challenge the US ( and get awaw with it ) . ALL INMNSHO

Conversations with European friends nail down the hard
reality: these folks BELIEVE in government, LOTS & LOTS of
government! {:- )

If China doesn't do as we demand? Gosh! {:- )

I have mentioned it here once or twice myself. The Fed is in a real bind. They see the need to raise rates to cool the market but can't do it for fear of weakening the yen. April imports through the Port of Los Angeles up 40% during April. Low priced junk is flooding in already.

What a load of horsesh*t.

Gold can go BELOW Friday's lows ( not by more than a coupla dollars--mind you ) and still be in uptrend.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Chan0427.gif

Just look at DJ's charts.

http://www.forbes.com:80/asp/redir.asp?/forbes/98/0504/6109149a.htm

Are the EUROcrats determined to impose an
honest currency, backed by Gold, on the
European people?

I think all CBs are administered by burocrats. That's not just a characteristic for the ECB.
However: I think it wil be a question of fly or die for the EURO whether it will be in a convincing way gold backed or not.

Alberich the Dwarf

http://www.djmarkets.com.hk/htmls/fixed/charts/charts.html

http://www.bank-styria.co.at/muenzn2.htm

For Sharefin ..
Thanks I think Im connected but
nobody will talk to me.
For Auric
Its been ages since I heard from
Russell . In fact I never heard from
him. I like Harmony, DDeeps, Rangold
( I think ) , and western Areas. But
between my son and some of the kitco
guys it looks like gold is finished.
My son even has platinum to 330.
So Im afraid to do anything. Do they
have Russian Blondes on this Chatline
thing ?? Maybe Ill just sell up and
spend 2 months talking dirty on
chatline. Nobody sent me any clients.
so whats to do??

What's the weather like in C.B.??

They've set-up a special section to store empty containers!

for alberich
... The reporters laughing. and
Chirac telling them to stop. Boy the
ANC is bad but Europe is Worse .. They
just cannot GET enough Government. The
Infrastructure HERE is MUCH better than
Mainland Europe. The Swiss Bank I use
doesnt HAVE email .. Im not joking

AG pretends that he is vigilent. IMO, he is a tool who takes his orders from someone else. You're right he is in a bind because he must know that one day things will collapse, and AG will be about as popular as OJ.

A telltale sign that the end is nigh is when AG or RR stepdown. They might say that it is to spend more time with family or health reasons, but they don't want to be captain of the Titanic when it hits that berg.

As to RR, he used to work for one of them big investment banks. There is speculation that the Mexican bailout was offered to save US investment banks who had large exposure to Mxico.

Excellent observation. The "Empty Container Index" like the Hound of Baskerville, the dog that didn't bark.

Thanks. Have read just about everything written at Kitco and the golden eagle site on SA Golds. Gonna grab me a big handful. Will report back as shares acquired. P.S.--I take full and complete responsibility for any profits or losses which may occur as a result of this action.

To which post are you referring where Chirac, the man who refused to wear cowboy boots in Denver, tells the reporters to stop laughing in his face.

BTW, I once saw Chirac speak. Didn't understand a word he said, but I got a few free apples out of it.

Mangez les pommes!

After many conversations, I can say--in all honesty--
that the only thing they are "determined" about is
defacto default of debt...actually, one does better when
one views this as a currency brought to the World by the
same people who designed the camel... ( old saw on committees,
and unfair to a very useful animal--the Euro should work so well! )
{:- )

Only people on this board said Euro to be backed by gold as opposed to a reserve. In a sense a reserve is a backing except that there is no redemption. There never was a proposal to back with gold only as a reserve. Gold sales in Europe will dry up to keep the Euro strong...Remember the Euro will begin trading in the gray market tomorrow. Any country that has sold gold has had its currency suffer. We have a pro gold Frenchman named Noyer as head of the Treasury in Europe.
As to "Fortress USA" it is built on speculative house of stk mkt and debt cards. ANY loss of confidence and it goes up like an atomic explosion. Military means less and less so US dominance not a big factor. We need the Iraq situation as an excuse to stay in the Mid East that situation is turning against the US.

About the booming economy-- I live in metro Washington DC which supposedly has the new Silicon Valley in No. Va. Guess what , we went house hunting and saw four places three of which were purchased approximately two years ago funny that the owners cant even sell for what they paid for it in this booming economy. The propaganda about the economy is to keep the dollar from collapsing and to manitain the expansion of credit. Sorry folks but we are in a silent depression. Remember all the glowing reports about the USSR econmy from their govt before the collapse. Every time you face a reality about the economy ie ask someone about their job situation or ask someone who is actually trying to sell a house ( not someone who isnt and just reads the newspaper ) or make ends meet ( the bankruptcies reflect the true picture ) and you come away with a completely different view than that which is portrayed in the media.

THE EURO is a reflection of the fact that THEY know the US will totally implode within 4 years. The reality certainly points in that direction and in hindsight it will look totally obvious.

are those coins made of gold? Silver? for sale?

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/980501/world/world2.html

There must be enormous pressure on China not to devalue by the West as competitive devaluations would send the fragile Japanese and Korean economies into even a sadder state. China wants into the WTO and appears to be Washington's lap dog in the sense that it is/was replacing Japan in buying US Debt.

Devaluations are in essence the printing of more currency, this is normally reflected in an upward adjustment in the price of tangibles like gold.

Power has two faces: the one is absolutely constructive, blesssing and life encouraging.
The other face of this head is destructive, suppressing of freedom, a strangulation of human life.
Power is unescapable among humans. It is our eternal fate to be exposed to power. I we are free, our freedom is permanently endangered.

The best advice in our times for people, to preserve their freedom and financial and political independence is to rely on gold. The advice to buy gold comes from people who love to see other people free and independent, rather than to dominate others and to suppress others.
Therefore I trust most of the people here on this kitco site, no matter what differences in opinion occur, as far as the interpretation of finacial markets is concerned.

Based on this attitude I feel the need to issue a warning to some of the best spirits on this site, not to fall into the illusion, that the phenomenon of power could ever be tamed by law.

No matter if at times "law" or what you think "law" should be, is a sleeping princess, waiting for her prince to kiss her awake, or "law" as you think it should be, and is awake, as it was once, when the American Founding Fathers worded the constitution, Power never slept. Power was always alive, affecting peoples fates. Power forced them into suppression, or allowed them a life in freedom, permanetly endangered so, by the lurking chance for suppression, which the opposite face of power would exercise without any mercy, if it got the chance.

I'm afraid, there is an illusion seeded in the minds of Americans, that power can ever be tamed by law. There is no "sweet land of liberty".
Freedom requires virtue, unweakened by hedonistic illusions.

Alberich the Dwarf

http://www.kiplinger.com:80/magazine/may98/flu5.html

The Ground is Rising and The Sky is Falling! The Ground is Rising and the Sky is Falling! Look out! Run! Run! Run! What happens when a chicken's head touches the Sky? Ohmy!. What's new, magoo....chirp?

http://www.euromint.com/telemint/euro1.htm

For Auric
Rangold's NAV should come out soon.
Also I will try and get some idea of
the Resource base at Syama. The head
of RRS is in Joburg even though the
company trades in UK. Ill call him up
and ask. I want to try and compare with
Lihir.
Set some money aside .. It may be
the most undervalued of the lot.
Harmony's up over 2 1/2 times.

for some reason, the Asian community resents the West ( US )
constant, unrelenting objurgation...

Food Aid Arrives in North Korea

SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) -- In the latest sign of Seoul's new
willingness to promote ties with North Korea, the secretary-general of
the South's Red Cross Society arrived in the northern communist state
Sunday to deliver food aid.

South Korea has been rapidly expanding non-governmental contact
under President Kim Dae-jung's new policy of openness toward North
Korea, dubbed ``Sunshine.''

The aim is to persuade Pyongyang to change its hard-line policy through
expanded contact and cooperation, rather than outside pressure. The
North's response thus far has been mixed.

Although their first official contact in nearly four years broke down in
Beijing in April, the rival Koreas have recently been more responsive to
each other's overtures.

Secretary-General Lee Byung-woong, who went to deliver 7,700 tons
of free food, part of 50,000 tons promised in March, is the
highest-ranking South Korean Red Cross official to visit the North on
such a mission. His visit came unannounced and immediately aroused
speculation that he might be on a ``special'' mission.

Pyongyang invited South Korea to last month's inter-Korea government
meeting in Beijing to discuss fertilizer aid from the South and ``other
matters of mutual concern.''

While seeking 200,000 tons of free fertilizer, the North rejected a South
Korean demand for steps to help reunite millions of people separated by
the 1945 division of the Korean Peninsula and the 1950-53 Korean
War.

In return for the fertilizer, South Korea demanded a North Korean
timetable for opening a meeting place for separated family members at
the border village of Panmunjom. The North rejected the demand.

Local media reported that Lee was likely to discuss the fertilizer and
family reunion issues again during his stay in the North.

On Saturday, a ``Little Angels'' troupe from South Korea arrived in
North Korea for a series of concerts and dance performances. It
marked the first civilian cultural exchange between the two sides.

The North's Korean Central News Agency, reporting the troupe's
arrival, did not say that it came from South Korea. It said the troupe was
sent by the World Peace Foundation.

The troupe, made up of primary school girls, is funded by the Rev. Sun
Myung Moon's Unification Church.

Chung Ju-yung, founder and honorary chairman of South Korea's
Hyundai group, also plans to visit North Korea in May with an offer of
1,000 cows and 10,000 tons of free food.

When he visited his hometown on the North's east coast in the early
1990s, Chung proposed a number of joint ventures, including an
investment in the North's tourism industry.

In a rare public statement in April, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il
called for wide-ranging contact with South Korea to promote unification.

But Kim insisted that South Korea first abolish its national security laws
and disband its main intelligence agency to make peace with the North.

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/asiaweek/current/issue/biz1.html

Gives one pause, does it not... ( Some may be ordered
on line ( French, e.g. --I didn't check this site out to
see if they were on-line sales. This site is the Euromint.
The French Franc/Euro is a bank which clearly states that
the coins are legal tender. So...one watches, waits,
speculates, gnash-the-teeth, waits...

Objurgation? You've got to stop doing that. I had to go look it up.

RANDGOLD Resources, the London-listed mining and exploration company, on Thursday reported an attributable loss of $24-million for the March quarter, compared with a $10-million loss in the previous quarter.



It brings Randgold's losses for the year to March to more than $43-million.



The group said this week, however, development of its key Syama mine in Mali was on track despite the poor results.



Randgold also reported encouraging results from its other projects in Africa, prompting the company to raise its resource base estimate to 14.1-million ounces from 11.8-million ounces.



"Syama is ready to deliver. We're on a rising gold price and we've got some ( exploration ) targets in Africa that are ready to deliver," Randgold chairman Roger Kebble said.



A new crusher and gold recovery installation were commissioned at Syama on Thursday and work was continuing to commission a regrind mill and other facilities.



Syama turned in a cash operating loss of $3.4-million for the March quarter compared to a December $992 000 loss.



A record 4.5 tonnes was mined in the quarter, but milling output was low, which pushed up unit costs.



Syama's cash cost rose to $417 an ounce from $311 an ounce in the December quarter.



"Lower gold production in the March quarter was due to extended plant downtime and commissioning tie-ins," Randgold said, adding that the shutdowns resulted in lower grades.



Randgold officials said they were on track to achieving an annual production target of 270 000 ounces and cash costs of $210/ounce at Syama.



Syama's resource base now stands at 6.7-million ounces at a grade of 3.3g/t.



At its Loulo heap leach project, Randgold said initial test results have shown "encouraging" recoveries in excess of 70 percent.



A feasibility study will be completed by July when a decision of further development will be made.



Elsewhere in Mali, the second phase of a 25-hole drilling programme at Morila has confirmed the San Prospect as a million-ounce deposit. A pre-feasibility study is in the works and should be finished by July.





 Among other mining results, Avgold returned to profitability during the March quarter with net earnings for the quarter of R6-million compared with the previous quarter's R8-million loss.



Avgold said gold sold decreased by 2% to 6 829kg from 6 973kg for the quarter ended December last year. Gold revenue of R56 259/kg was R9 405/kg higher than the spot price, as a result of the company's hedging programme.



Cash holdings reduced from R271-million to R169-million as a result of capital expenditure on the target development and tax payments.



Results of the Fairview mine, acquired from Gold Fields in January, were incorporated into the results for the first time. - Reuters, Sapa-AFP

If you look at the past 18 years, and especially the last two, everything you say is true. The explosion of equities markets and the economic boom from free trade and technology, especially in the US, has made gold appear anachronistic. But I expect changes caused by numerous destabilizing events that will make the world in two years look nothing like it does today, or two years ago, or 20 or 50 or 100 years ago. It will be completely unique. The change will not be caused by one event but by a convergence of many over a relatively short period that in terms of their effect on equities markets and gold value will make the oil shock of the 1970's look like insignificant by comparison. The net effect will be that capital will flee equities markets for the most conservative stores of wealth available, mostly to bonds, property, and gold. I cannot go into more detail now, have to get going, but am eager to engage you on this further later today.
-EJ

has offered special insights )

These are more prosaic, but still worth attending

Cronyism, about which were hear a very great deal ( the Asian disease ) is the pejorative synonym for networking...something Americans are encouraged to do....

Bad Chinese banks have been bad Chinese banks for a very long time...Carl, Donald and I had posts about the incredible, scathing, things the CHINESE had to say about their banks in 1996 reports...but
at that time the Goldman Sachs of the world, were busy pouring --or trying to pour--money into the Chinese desert...

What we are seeing is the PR war in full-court-press. Were going to be playing political anagrams for a bit...lets get really good at it! {:- ) )
Political anagram: salt = pepper? assault? Treaty?

Are there any Kitcoites with thoughts on Japanese index
funds? ( The only one that comes to my mind is "EWJ". ) No, I'm
not talking about buying into these funds, but taking a short
position.

Here is a portfolio I made at Yahoo for HGMCY, RANGY, DROOY, and WDEPY. Not sure if this URL is accessible from other web browsers, or just mine. http://quote.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_1

Bad banks are not unique to China. Using the Weiss bank rating system there is only one safe bank here in Connecticut. Only two in all of New England.

THE GLOBAL CASINO

"For the past several decades the financial markets were seen by Western governments to be the embodiment of all that makes free enterprise such an all-conquering ideology. They were seen to enshrine the philosophies, and the virtues, of the heroic entrepreneur; who alone can create the wealth of these nations.

Indeed it was once true that the markets did have real power, as the Victorian industrialists used the money they raised to spread the message of Western civilisation;

but now the markets themselves have moved on, and the prevailing myth today hides another great and growing industry - that of professional gambling on a global scale. The pensions of teachers are wagered alongside the earnings of the multinationals - and this is starting to worry even the most conservative governments.

Donald@sure.u.did LOL {:- ) )
bbl

that he needs to sell his country's gold? Huh? No, the German and French bankers will tell the Dutchenbanker to shut up....why? mclittle inquires....Because they own a bunch of gold. Mc....., Take a nap and dream of naked ladies....give yourself a break.

This morning I'm reading a prospectus I got yesterday in the mail of a company that has grided the top 100 metropolitan ( USA ) areas. A person will be able to "short" or "buy" a SPECIFIC real estate region for the first time. Those "investors" that like the looks or future of one area will be able to play this real estate by buying a contract, ( $100,000 ) and likewise, a disbeliever in that area will be able to short the real estate there by selling the contract to the "LONG". Century 21 and Prudential are the initial market makers. Intersesting, huh?

The company, RealEvest Corp., discloses in the offering rag that they don't know exactly what effect the speculation will have on any particular real estate "pod" ( some of which are as small as one square mile ) . But in this way, any speculative investor in the world will be able to establish the value of your home. Innovative investing....could be big.

BBML

Yes! In California also...do you think we are the only two
people in US aware of this? Some days I think so {:- ( (
God Bless. bbl

head of FBI and CIA to aid the IRS in cleaning up it's act. Hmmmmm, open your eyes people. The government is tying the noose even tighter around your throat and doing it in full public view.

It is clear that the USG is hurtling towards keeping track of each and every movement of its citizens. In addition they have made it a crime to carry a second passport, and if you try and leave the US you pay a hefty penalty to leave.

The Berlin wall came down, the Clintonista wall is nearly finished.

Markings on Coin state: EUROPEAN CENTRALBANK DEUTSCHLAND ( GERMANY ) ,Gold coin is 1/2 oz .999 pure. cost=DM$648=US$363.72 or US$727.44/oz. Interesting!!!!

http://www.usatoday.com:80/news/comment/colhenr.htm

test message from 223

PHYSICAL GOLD!

The price of paper gold is $302.10
The price of physical gold seems to be TWICE that!

Thanks Adrain...I KNEW someone at this site would jump on it!
{:- ) ) ) )

Good indicator! Thanks for sharing.
outa here ( it is just hard to leave...you folks are special! )

While everyone is looking for the Holy Grail, Alberich hits the past and current status of the world economy on the head. Gold is a store of value for everyones protection for the coming global economic meltdown. Buy physical and hold for that time that will surely come, whether today, tomorrow, next week, next month next year or whenever!

ANOTHER KNOWS WHEREOF HE SPEAKS.

LOVED the views of golden Euro coins ...

Thanks, it is so helpful when you answer opinions with facts.

First, SSC charts for 1 and 5 years:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=1y
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=5y

IMHO, SSC is going up! Thus my handle, which was chosen to reflect SSC's roughly 223,000,000 market cap year before last, is no longer valid. The new handle is from the Norse mythology. Gagnrad was one of Odin's pseudonyms, chosen when he entered a riddling contest with one of the most powerful of the Frost Giants. I thought it was appropriate as I am a very small person who sometimes teases and riddles the Kitco Giants.

Besides, that way its easier for you all to remember my hotmail address should you need to send any y2k or Mars invasion updates. ;^ ) gagnrad@hotmail.com

Date: Sun May 03 1998 10:58
Adrian ( SDRer-A Your 10:12 Euro Coin ) ID#254159:
Markings on Coin state: EUROPEAN CENTRALBANK DEUTSCHLAND ( GERMANY ) ,Gold coin is 1/2 oz .999 pure. cost=DM$648=US$363.72 or US$727.44/oz. Interesting!!!!

The history of the XAU and the XAU/AU ratio is a bit complicated. It appears to document exuberant run-ups in the price of shares relative to gold with consequent reversals in their relationship. ( A kind of hypomanic/hypodepressive behavior of share investors. ) Donald is partially on to this with his buy and sell signal of the shares based on the XAU/AU ratio, but an examination of the short ( 14+ year ) history of the XAU and the XAU/AU ratio reveals that buy and sell points based on the XAU/AU ratio need to be adjusted for the absolute level of the XAU.

For example, our most recent run-up in the XAU ( before this one ) was to 107.25 ( wkly basis ) on 10/3/97. The XAU/AU ratio was then .321. The average XAU/AU ratio for levels of the XAU at 107.25 +/- 5 over 14+ years has been .28. Thus the .321 XAU/AU ratio on 10/2/97 was nearly 2 Std. Dev. above the historic mean ratio when the XAU has been at this level. That this meant the shares were over priced was confirmed by a subsequent 8 wk drop of 34% in the XAU, while gold dropped 11%.

As of last Fri., the XAU is at 85.69 and the XAU/AU ratio is at .284. Safe you say? Well, the historic average for the XAU/AU ratio with the XAU at 85.69 +/- 5, is .239 with a Std. Dev. of .225. ( The XAU has spent 152 wks in this range over the last 14+ years and .284 is the highest the ratio has ever been. ) Thus, we again find ourselves nearly 2 Std. Dev.s above the historic average of the XAU/AU ratio for periods when the XAU was at this level.

Perhaps gold share investors know something this time that gold investors dont know. That hasnt been the case when shares have run up this much in the past.

my typing leaves a great deal to be desired ( like accuracy )
and when I rush + excited it REALLY gets 'tacky'. Sorry!

Here you see a 2 year graph of SSC showing moving averages. The picture should speak for itself, IMHO. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=2ym

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980503/V000518-050398-idx.html

Here's a 5 year Stillwater chart. Interesting annual periodicity reminds me of what FJC used to do back in the early 80's. People did well until one year the cycle changed. With my luck I'll sell this June at 30 then see it rise to 50 or hold on and see it go back to 15! http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SWC&d=5ym

is now below the blue line and any move below the 300 mark is trouble.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

Great work! You are on to something.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

Nick: your 9:23, using a scatological term to hide the lack of evidence supporting your case, is to be expected anytime someone posts anything which offends those who approach gold as a religious icon rather than a commodity bought and sold in an open market. Knowing that, I posted my views anyway, in case there were some who might thereby avoid severe financial damage. I did NOT say "go below" Friday's low. I said "close below". There is a world of difference. If we close below Friday's low, I'm sure your broker will be just as pleased to accept your order to buy as will my broker be to accept my sell order. Gone to do family Sunday things. Good luck, all, and be careful out there.

Average prediction of gold price for Mid Year 1998 = $308.13
Average prediction of gold price for year end 1998 = $315.83

Money managers polled on gold. Favorable 28%, Neutral 36%, Unfaforable 36%

Wow! This one works too, this is like a new toy! http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=5ym

Carl: Thanks for XAU/spot ratio analysis! I agree that gold stocks are vulnerable unless POG ralliea back close to $310 quite soon.

However do not discount the possibility that the normal XAU/spot ratio can change radically under the right comditions. Reflecting cost cutting and consolidation, oil tocks have surged in recent years even as the price of oil got smashed. If gold miners move to aggressively consolidate and cut costs -- the XAU/spot ratio probably would take a great leap upwards and never look back.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha40.gif

Looking at Randgold resources..
The resource base for syama is 6.7 million oz and
as best I can figure on sunday night the number of
shares outstanding is 22 million, making 6.7/22 or
0.3 oz/share. Ashanti has about 22 mill reserves ..
so Id guess 40 million resources on 109 million
shares or about 0.4 oz/share .. It trades around
$10, so a price of $6 for Rangold resources based
on Syama ALONE looks reasonable .. But there is also
the luolo mine to come on in 1999 ( with its own
resourve base ) as well as a heap leach plant to
start up in 1999 as well. The total capacity end
1999 will be 440,000 oz/year, or about 40 percent
of what ashanti produces. At 10$/share the market
cap of Ashanti would be $1090 mill. On that basis
RRS should be 1090*.4 = 436 MILL market cap on
22 million shares.. placing the price at $19/share
versus the present 6$. So RRS looks like a good
deal on identified projects throught 1999.
Now looking at Rangold itself .. it has 41 million
shares and it owns 11 mill shares of RRS. Valueing
the other half of its holdings ( deeps harmony crown
plus options plus unlisted assets ) at ZERO
still gives a nav of 66/41 = $1.6 .... then valuing the non
RRS half at the same rate would give 132/41 = $3.2.
Which is what I suspect is close to the truth.

Just to throw a bit more into the game .. Kebble
says the RANGOLD resource base in now 14.1 million
oz. .. I have no idea of the basis for this statement
but at face value that means 14.1/41 = .34 oz/share
or the same as RRS. That alone would put ramgold
at the same price as RRS or $6 per share.
In summary .. buying rangold at close to a buck has to be
a good deal.

Here is that XAU chart at max. Notice January, 86 and compare to now.

Your warnings echo those of Patrick Henry at the convention for ratification of the Constitution. The lust for power never sleeps, never goes away. Power only yields to power.

But, no government can endure without the active support of some and the silent support or indifference of many. The ultimate coin of government is legitimacy. When the sense of the people becomes that a government no longer serves desireable ends, the days of that government are numbered. The Shah had a ruthless, efficient secret police, but the Shah is no more.

America was founded in the fulfillment of English and European Enlightenment. A written Constitution for a government is a high water mark in the progress of reason in the affairs of men. By it, power is made subject to law. Nothing is perfect and no administration of law is perfect. The coin of government in America is debased. No question. But new coin can be struck, and will be. The mint is the American people and they are not done yet.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=mym

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/entertainment/story.html?s=z/reuters/980430/entertainment/stories/film_tibet_1.html

Background:
The Brussels connection--lengthy discussions about paper gold market
at Comex/LBMA and frustration of being forced to view through the tyranny-of-the-dollar.

Then--received an email with JUST the Euromint url; no greetings, no text at all--only the URL

I saw immediately that there was one heck of a price differential, but--given my prior discussions [prior knowledge], did not want to program Kitco to see what I saw.

Knowing that there are Kitco folks fluent in the language, I posted
sans text.

Adrian saw, immediately, the price differential that I noticed.

That is not to say that either of us has a LOCK on some New Truth. It does suggest that we would do well to work this issue! Here is the exchange; I shall post it in each time slot, so everyone gets a shot at it, OK?

( 1 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 10:12
SDRer__A ( Harbinger's ??? ) ID#28594:
http://www.euromint.com/telemint/euro1.htm

( 2 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 10:58
Adrian ( SDRer-A Your 10:12 Euro Coin ) ID#254159:
Markings on Coin state: EUROPEAN CENTRALBANK DEUTSCHLAND
( GERMANY ) ,Gold coin is 1/2 oz .999 pure. cost=DM$648=US$363.72
or US$727.44/oz. Interesting!!!!

( 3 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 11:06
SDRer__A ( Adrian--isn't it just! Because it just MIGHT represent the
REAL price of ) ID#28594:
PHYSICAL GOLD!

The price of paper gold is $302.10
The price of physical gold seems to be TWICE that!

Thanks Adrian...I KNEW someone at this site would jump on it!
{:- ) ) ) )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now, I REALLY am off to brunch!

I wonder how many others here share ROR's assessment of the real economy.

So good to see you posting hereabouts.

Your voice is needed here,

It is

gagnrad -

It is now the most unpronouncable name on this forum.

I LIKE IT!

Yes

Very good to see Kitco oldtime gold technical analysis meisters APH and Oldman posting regularly on the metals. Also good to see that we are all roughly in agreement: can't close lower ( in some cases ) or below $300 ( in others ) and have the move from January remain potentially bullish. Now where is Glenn............??????

Interesting info:

http://www.euromint.com/telemint/euro1.htm

Donald and all. That is an interesting segment of the chart. Too bad they can't amplify the 86 range. But IMHO the price still reflects chaos as I'd mentioned before in my previous incarnation as 223.

RJ. Too bad I don't have any gold albums like the artist formerly known as Prince. :.^ ( But if the price goes down, maybe can learn to cast them?

Well, must buck up and go do sunny Sunday things.

STUDIO.R @ "So a Dutch banker is going to TELL a German banker that he needs to sell his country's gold? Huh? No, the German and French bankers will tell the Dutchenbanker to shut up....why?"

Lets see

He will find no resistance from the Germans. They threw open the doors to their vaults last year and invited the fiscal rapists inside, thus pointing the direction.

I am not saying that these are not good and fine men. They are just men who seem to not hold gold in high esteem.

I find it surprising that there is not more discussion about this Dutch fellow who will head the ECB ( and an ancestral countryman of mine ) , which has been the subject of endless speculation on these pages. When the picture does not agree with a bullish outlook for gold, the discussion is slight. Yet let a Middle Eastern Prince DemiGod ( or perhaps a prankster with an EXCELLENT sense of humour ) with elastic language skills post a cryptic note or two, and the fellows of Kitco will endlessly speculate on the deeper meaning.

There is no deeper meaning here. The construction of the ECB is, so far, is not a good picture for gold. No amount of spin can twist it so.

Tis true

Yes.

you can not refute the facts that show many top gold specific analysts contending that the EURO will be tied to gold ( not going to get into the semantics ) in some manner shape or form.

And I certainly have not swooned nor given the Another entity any more or less credence than anyone who posts here.

From all your lips to your God's ears.

I wish you were closer too! I would come to SA if you send a ticket!

Naked Lady on a Bull or Steer? I wonder what this represents?

HighRise

Are we 2 years from a universal cancer ( tumor ) cure? See the front page of the NYTimes today. I've been following this "stop blood flow to tumor" approach for some time, but this is looking unbelievable like a once in 100 years break through for mankind. I suppose there are investment implications galore, but any money implications seem trivial to the import of this.
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/national/sci-cancer-treatments.html
"Within a year, if all goes well, the first cancer patient will be injected with two new drugs that can eradicate any type of cancer, with no obvious side effects and no drug resistance -- in mice.
Some cancer researchers say the drugs are the most exciting treatment
that they have ever seen. But then they temper their enthusiasm with
caution, noting that the history of cancer treatments is full of high
expectations followed by dashed hopes when drugs with remarkable
effects in animals are tested in people.
Still, the National Cancer Institute has made the drugs their top priority,said Dr. Richard Klausner, the director. Klausner called them "the single most exciting thing on the horizon" for the treatment of cancer.
"I am putting nothing on higher priority than getting this into clinical trials," Klausner said. The mouse studies are "remarkable and wonderful," he said, and "very compelling." But he pointed out that the studies were in mice and so, in humans, he said he wanted to emphasize "the if's."
The new drugs, angiostatin and endostatin, work by interfering with the
blood supply tumors need. Given together, they make tumors disappear
and not return.
Dr. James Pluda, who is directing the cancer institute's planned tests of
the drugs in patients, said he and others at the institute were "electrified" when they heard the drug's discoverer deliver a lecture about the newest results. "People were almost overwhelmed," Pluda said. "The data were remarkable."
Although the discovery of the drugs, and some of their effects, have been
reported over the past few years, Pluda said that "if people understood
how many steps ahead" the research was compared to what had been
published, "they'd be even more in awe."
But Dr. Jerome Groopman, a cancer researcher at the Harvard Medical
School, was wary. "We are all driven by hope," Groopman said. "But a
sober scientist waits for the data." And until the drugs are given to
humans, he said, the crucial data simply do not exist.
So far, the drugs are the only ones ever tested that can seemingly
eradicate all tumors in mice, even gigantic ones, equivalent to a
two-pound growth in a person. The best that other cancer drugs have
done is slow the growth of these large tumors. Mice are the traditional
test animals in cancer research.
But even the drugs' discoverer, Dr. Judah Folkman, a cancer researcher
at Children's Hospital in Boston, is cautious about the drugs' promise.
Until patients take them, he said, it is dangerous to make predictions. All he knows for sure, Folkman said, is that "if you have cancer and you are a mouse, we can take good care of you."
Other scientists are not so restrained. "Judah is going to cure cancer in
two years," said Dr. James Watson, a Nobel laureate who directs the
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a cancer research center on Long
Island. Watson said Folkman would be remembered along with scientists
like Darwin as someone who permanently altered civilization.
The long trail to the discovery of the new drugs began more than 30 years
ago when Folkman became obsessed by what many saw as a quixotic
notion: that cancers cannot grow beyond the size of a pinhead unless they
have their own blood supply. If he could block a tumor's blood supply, he
reasoned, the tumor should shrink to a minuscule size.
( Much more to story, worth reading. Carl )

JD -

Don't bitch to us if you have not yet upgraded to Nose Turnips 98.

Wake up and smell the millennium.

I will send crients in curvy shapes of Russian Blondes ( RB )

Business and pleasure, yes?

Uh Huh

Nothing short of amazing if true. I have seen the devastating effects on friends. I hope it works.

Namaste'

"At a recent presentation by a petroleum company they estimated

that 17% of all computer systems on a tanker were non-Y2K compliant,

and they have a fleet of over 100 tankers. Changing and testing all the

systems is impossible in the next 18 months, they simply do not have

the dry dock facilities or labor resource. So they will not be able to

get the approval from the Marine Safety Agency [UK] to issue sea-worthy

licenses and hence they will not be able to obtain insurance from

1.1.99. The business impact will be very significant."



http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-16203/reply-98

Thanks for your thanks. What you say about the possibilities is certainly true. It's just that the data I've been looking at are saying there hasn't been a rally in the past 14+ years that started with the XAU at these levels when the XAU/AU ratio was this high. I too am looking for a change from the last 14 year gold and share market, but I'm unwilling to say we are there yet.

Worldwide Day of Mourning

Uma Thurman Has Married Ethan Hawke

She could not wait until I was rich and famous

Woe

AwaytomakeincantationstopurgeHawkesoImayenjoyUmabliss

Sigh

Hello to a great discussion-group. National debts in the European Union will be switched into the Euro on 1.1.1999. We should watch now how much gold will be transferred to the ECB. If it is only a small fraction of the various countries reserves the Euro will tend to be weak externally. Now some day some bureaucrat will have a glorious idea: how do you get rid of your debts? You let the Euro slide and one day you create the new gold franc or the new gold lira. If the Euro disappears so will the debts. And you start again with a hard currency.
PS I noticed, that one gold franc of the BIS is exactly the twentieth part of the old Gold Vreneli in Switzerland ( 20 SFr. ) or of the old 20 Lira gold piece ( ? ) or even the old 20 francs french gold piece. Thank you and forgive my poor english. Felix

http://www.cnn.com/EARTH/9805/01/babbit.mining

gold @ DM648 1/2 ounce
and silver @ DM77 1/2 ounce....

are we looking at a fully metal backed Euro and total devaluation of the yankee toilet paper to it's true worthlessness?

Would be a good ploy for the euros to pull a sharp one and blow the dollar out of the water from the get go. Note interestingly that the gold/silver ratio here is 8:1....eerily close to the Islamic ratio.

...I would say that you should re-read this article. The extremely pro-gold French WILL control the ECM treasury!!! So guess what that means.

As for the XAU, see my yesterday's post: BATTLE MOUNTAIN is IN PLAY!! First consolidation IN THE WORKS!

Doowah Doowah.

Yowsah.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Sat May 02 1998 23:06
farfel ( GREAT NEWS FOR GOLD LOVERS....AND I MEAN GREAT NEWS!!!! ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
....much to the chagrin of Holland, Belgium, Portugal and all the other smaller European countries, Germany and France cut Wim "Ol' Dutch" Duisenberg down to size. Shortened term...poor old guy won't be around to launch the EURO....and the ultimate capper is...CHRISTIAN NOYER, former FRENCH Treasury Director, will be vice-prez of the ECM and effectively control the ECM treasury. No THAT'S the news I was waiting for! GOLD SALES ARE OVER!

Even better, because the old EURO is getting off to such a rocky start, me thinks higher GOLD support is in the cards.

NOW I LIKE THAT!

Doowah Doowah

YOWSAH!!!!!!!!

EU leaders pick bank chief amid controversy
By Paul Taylor

BRUSSELS ( Reuters ) - European Union leaders chose Dutchman Wim
Duisenberg on Sunday to head the central bank that will manage their single currency, but the deal curtailing his term was denounced as a disastrous launch for the euro.

After more than 11 hours of wrangling, the leaders appointed Duisenberg, 62, head of the European Monetary Institute, as president of the European Central Bank nominally for a full eight-year term.

But under a pre-arranged scenario, he immediately informed them that on age grounds he intended to stand down once euro banknotes and coins replace national currencies in the 11 founder states in 2002, and the summit agreed that French central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet would succeed him.

Economists in the financial markets scorned the arrangement as a political fudge, saying it would undermine the credibility of the fledgling currency to be launched in January.

The president of the European Parliament, Jose-Maria Gil Robles, compared the deal to the birth of a deformed baby and told reporters he had "no doubt" it breached the spirit of the Maastricht treaty on European union.

The parliament can withhold approval from ECB appointments, which would be politically damaging, but it cannot veto them.

"I would say it's no good at all for the European Central Bank to start like this," Gil Robles said.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who brokered the deal after hours of arm-wrestling among France, the Netherlands and Germany, denied that the outcome was "a fix or a fudge."

He insisted it preserved what he called the sanctity of the treaty since Duisenberg was retiring of his own free will and would set his own departure date.

European Commission President Jacques Santer sought to head off any legal challenge by saying that the Commission, as guarantor of EU treaties, certified the agreement's conformity with the letter of the Maastricht treaty.

When French President Jacques Chirac, who had initially insisted on a specific departure date, told a news conference that Duisenberg had decided entirely of his own accord "for personal reasons" not to complete his term, reporters burst into laughter, drawing a presidential rebuke.

"Don't laugh, there's no reason," Chirac said.

The French leader said the agreement had taken so long because of the risk that it might be challenged in countries such as Germany which have constitutional courts.

The summit appointed Frenchman Christian Noyer, a former Treasury director, as ECB vice-president for four years.

Other members nominated to the executive board were Bank of Italy board member Tomasso Padoa Schioppa, Bank of Spain board member Domingo Solans, German Bundesbank chief economist Otmar Issing and Bank of Finland governor Sirkka Hamalainen.

The leaders also agreed that future appointments would take account of the principle of rotation among member states which were not represented initially on the board.

The horse-trading over the bank presidency overshadowed the historic decision to launch the euro on January 1, 1999, with 11 founder members.

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, Austria, Ireland and Luxembourg will form the world's second biggest economy, equivalent in population, output and trade to the United States.

Britain, Sweden and Denmark opted to stay out of the launch, while Greece intends to join in 2001, by which time it will have met the strict economic convergence criteria.

The European Parliament formally approved the launch on Saturday with a standing ovation.

Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok, who faces a general election on Thursday, put a brave face on Duisenberg's truncated mandate, saying it was an undoubted success for the Netherlands and "a good signal to the markets."

But market economists were withering in their criticism. Peter Praet, chief economist of Belgium's Generale Bank, said: "The damage is already done...This leaves a very bad taste."

Both he and Commerzbank economist Juergen Pfister in Frankfurt said the central bank might have to set higher than necessary interest rates when it begins operating next year to restore credibility.

EU finance ministers also confirmed on Sunday that EMU would be based on existing bilateral central rates.

Date: Sat May 02 1998 23:13
farfel ( Even Better News for BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD shareholders.... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My God, I should go away more often...coming back to a flood of GREAT NEWS!!!!!

I hope some of my Kitco Buddies got on board this train. Looks like BMG is in play. Take note of the LAST paragraph. What does it mean????

XAU taking off on Monday???? Hmmmmm?

Doowah Doowah

Yowsah.

Thanks.

F*


HOUSTON, May 1 ( Reuters ) - Battle Mountain Gold Co. said Friday that it filed a shelf registration for the possible sale by Noranda Inc. ( Tse:NOR ) of all or part of 65 million shares of Battle Mountain beneficially owned by Noranda.

In a statement, Battle Mountain Gold said it would not receive any proceeds from the sale of any of the shares, all of which, if sold, will be for the account of Noranda. Noranda holds an approximately 28 percent chunk of Battle Mountain.

Battle Mountain said a registration statement for the offer was filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective.

Noranda officials said last week they had received expressions of interest in the Battle Mountain stake and were considering whether to take a profit on the investment.

Quote for referenced ticker symbols: Tse:NOR, BMG
 1998, Reuters

...when we return, I will look into this whole "market call" issue, yes?

Doowah Doowah

Yowsah.

Thanks.

F*

FYI
Janet has new evidence on Bill and Al - CNN

HighRise

Lets take Jan 12, 96. AU was 396.70, XAU was 131.31 and the XAU/AU ratio was .331. Given the range for XAU between 126.31 and 136.31 over the last 14+ years, the average XAU/AU ratio is .32 with a Std. Dev. of .018. Thus the XAU/AU ratio on 1/12/96 was only .6 Std Devs. above its average at that price level. The XAU continued to advance to 2/2/96 ( to 150.62 ) with gold advancing to only 414.7, putting the XAU/AU at an astonomical .363. At that level we are going to need more data. That is why some proxy for the XAU from the 70's would be so valuable.

Carl: Note that I said the XAUspot ratio would take off only after a wave of consolidations and cost cutting in the gold mining industry. That process has begun, but still has a long way to go. So I agree a big XAU rally is very unlikely here even if POG holds above $300.

I am looking for a 10-15% correction before another big surge up this summer.

Posters here should remember a profound statement made by Milhouse on golden eagle a few months ago. CB selling and leasing are a RESULT of the gold bear, NOT THE CAUSE. Large gold reserves in the European CB could trigger a nice gold rally, but not a long-term bull. Such a gold bull is impossible as long as U.S. financial assets continue to boom. But once the bubble implodes, a huge gold bull will follow as day follows night.

of mainland Europe....but ol' steadfast hard-headed ( but reasonable track record ) studio will either wait or buy....not sell. I have now passed the mid six figures in my buy, my commitment is in place, but I know what I do best....and that is I wait. We shall see....you trade successfully and I wait successfully. Good luck, amigo.

If you look for trouble you must
pay the price.... BUT I'm your man-
tough guy.

I compare the Worden Bros. Gold Index ( wg580 ) to the price of gold on a daily basis. I use the Worden Bros Index because it is broader, and represent a real portfolio better than the XAU.

I have six years of data, and have created bands one, two and three standard deviations from the average. This tell me when we are oversold, very oversold and the rare extremely oversold. ( The reverse for over bought ) .

We had a very oversold ( 2 std dev ) condition peak on Jan 12 1998. Currently, we are sitting in a position just slightly oversold relative to average. I don't understand how the xau/gold comparison shows the XAU as overpriced?

By my numbers, the index would have to be about 29% higher to enter the overbought zone.

There is a plain logic which one might consider.
EMU reserves is expected to include both US$s and
gold. It means that EURO creators do not want the
destruction of US$ and probably gold, otherwise what else
they will keep in reserves? Gold is an
"independent" asset which one should have just in case,
so it will be kept for the near future, and US$ is
the "highly acceptable" asset worldwide.

What it all means is some kind of "peace" between EURO
US$ and gold, planned by EURO people. Do not expect
any shocks in the near term. US$ is gonna be just fine,
and gold will be kept in $350-400 area for now. I believe
that gold will trade most of the time $100-$125 above it's
cost of production.

If US$ crashes, it will happen because of problems in the
U.S., and not because of introduction of EURO.

The vaunted meeting of the Great Eleven, so anticipated to announce a 150% gold backed Eurodollar; ends instead with petty squabbling and bickering, the same of which has been the state of affairs for those that share those same borders which have witnessed a thousand years of unrest.

Britain, forever protected by stormy seas, opted not to relinquish sovereignty over The Coin of the Realm. They will have occasion to smile at this decision.

The Rest Will Squabble

Yes

They will

The Sovereign Individual by Davidson and Rees-Mogg - governments are crumbling, not the other way around. Private cyber currency will be the game of the day in the not too distant future. And that currency will be based on metal, not paper. The historic route is in the works and it is starting to rush along like a freight train.

While you study the various financial sciences the internal-external market forces that have been manipulated for decades are going to be seen soon and sweep the past 60 or so years of economist/politician/banker stupidities into the graveyard of history.

Hold no metal and you will hold no REAL money.

You will still have time to make money on mining stocks, but time is short and the water rises my friends.

STUDIOR -

Nor wil I sell gold here or soon. Still got a batch of shorts I would like to very much be out of. Lowered the stops, so Monday will bring what it will.

Still waiting for an e-mail. Want to talk studio stuff.

rjd@pacbell.net

I will gladly lend you my .357 Ruger,
if you need one...However, I am ready to
play a peacekeeper, like usual...

Retired Soldier - my brother John is
a fine person with a high level of
intellectual freedom. You need to know
him to understand the true meaning of
his words. He is not so bad...

My continued gratitude to you for your work on evaluating and passing along your observations of the RSA golds....I owe you at least one blonde russian beauty...and look forward to presenting her to you in person.....studio.roundingup.ravingrussians

Are the bands you are creating made from the latest time series data? In other words, are your deviations from prices established over recent trading ( 50, 100days, whatever ) ? This is the usual way of looking at over priced and under priced. What I am looking at are deviations from the way the XAU has EVER been priced RELATIVE to gold price. Thus I look at all the times in its history ( unfortunately short ) when the XAU has been within 5 points of where it is, and I calculate the average and St Dev. for the XAU/AU ratio for all those times. Right now, the XAU/AU ratio is higher than it has ever been when the XAU was within +,- 5 points of where it is now.

Retired Soldier, like every soldier should have its own one...

I have read in two places ( 1 in Kitco, 1 in the Gold Mining Outlook newsletter ) of a Friday rumour of further Belgian CB gold sales. Can anyone tell me what the rumour was and where they heard it?

I've been reading Kitco site for a month now, and am finding it very worthwhile. Thanks to all the posters.

Goldnbones

you guys holding physical just doubled your money, yes?

A giant gulp to ya!

Namaste'

Brother Studio, I think that everybody around here owes
brother John at least one blonde beauty...I do not think
there are enough russian blondes around to be sent to
my brother, so may be we should consider finding some
Swedish chicks as a substitute.

Brother John, are Swedish chicks O.K.? Tell me as a man,
would you rather buy ticket for Swedish chick than for
Retired Soldier?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980501/belgium_ha_1.html

T1 wrote:

"Hold no metal and you will hold no REAL money"

"You will still have time to make money on mining stocks, but time is short and the water rises my friends".

Hmmmm -

This confuses me, as an inherent contradiction appears above. This is by no means directed at you solely, as the same sentiments has been expressed by most here.

The collected folks on this site decry the use and proliferation of fiat currency. They say, "For I, no paper I. The Metal is the thing".

Yet there are endless discussions regarding profits made and paper traded. I even hear from some that they made X or Y percent return on a gold stock. Yet where is their gold? Where indeedy is their profit? How do they know they have a profit? Did they call their fund or broker? Did the look up the prices on the computer? Did they then see numbers representing more then they had before?

These same numbers in space I spoke of earlier this weekend.

These same who would cry unto you, "Do not trust in paper!" Here, they revel in their paper gains represented by numbers in space. When will they stop these paper pursuits and convert it all to gold?

Been waiting to hear this from a member. Yet all I see is more talk of how well these sages are doing in paper.

Irony is ironically ironic, yes?

Yes

1 ) Gold will go up sharply, 2 ) Gold will get hammered. Who is right?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980501/belgium_ha_1.html

One may say the 303 gap was filled, which appears good for gold.

Another would say look out below.

I don't know which.

Tis true

You are brilliant! We must now go long on russian blondes....and chocolates, vodka and pickles....FOREVER and FOREVERYONE! my best to you.

Mail to you....I had previously posted my e.mail address for you when you said you had a studio question...it got lost back there somewhere!

Some folks use Placer Dome as an XAU proxy. There is also a Canadian index I have heard about. It was constructed by someone who had the same need. I know little about it. Anyone?

The band I have created are using all six years of data for the average ratio and the calculation of the bands.

For another check, I called up a chart of gold for six years and a relative strength comparison to the XAU. It is sitting right in the middle, not expensive, nor cheap.

Statistics are interpreted differently by different people, I guess. I don't quite know how else to explain it.

I don't know who will be right Monday.....but I do know which WAY is right for me.....UP! GO GOLDBUGS!

so far he has put himself on the record on overinflated stockmarkets and now suspect banking practices. "Alarms bells were sounded" he said

Greenspan raises cautions on looser bank controls


WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan
Greenspan said Saturday the flurry of bank mergers had
heightened his objections to letting banks shift operations from
holding companies under the Fed's oversight.
``This is a terribly crucial issue, especially now that we
are looking at apparently an increased size in merged banking
institutions, because a very large bank requires a very subtle
handling in the event of a crisis. A very, very large bank
requires even more,'' Greenspan told a banking group meeting in
Nashville, Tenn.
In a televised appearance before the Conference of State
Bank Supervisors, Greenspan repeated his concerns about
proposals to let banks move into new lines of business without
restructuring as holding companies.
Those entities would be overseen by other regulators
including the Comptroller of the Currency, instead of the Fed.
Greenspan said that if laws were changed to make that option
widely available, it would ``effectively create the
disappearance of the bank holding company structure, which is so
critical to the Fed and indeed any central bank in endeavoring
to maintain oversight of potential systemic problems.''
Without the Fed's power to intervene directly in the banking
system, he said: ``I am seriously concerned that we would not be
able to effectively implement what we are required to do by
statute'' to maintain financial stability.
Greenspan also said chances that Congress would pass banking
reform legislation in the dwindling days of the short
congressional session ``are clearly less than 50-50.''
But he said the eventual reform of Depression-era banking
laws was ``imperative.''
Pending legislation in Congress would allow banks to get into other lines of business more easily, but only through the
public holding company structure.
But amendments are being pushed to loosen restrictions
further on banks going into new ventures.


Note how the word "systemic" crops up more and more...this is the a definite precursor to a cop out....it wasn't our fault it was a systemic failure. Ask any systems engineer.
If we were to look at the markets as a "system" then derivatives could be seen as an "input"...has anybody asked the question is this system stable to these inputs?.....Evidently not, we have the lowest world stockpile in many commodities for many years...and yet the lowest market prices....it is only a matter of time...tick tock tick tock

For Oris
Thank you my brother .. I am bad actually .. but it's
nice of you to say that. As you know, I am in no way
anti-semitic .. as my wife and a seemingly endless string
of in-laws can attest ... but I am anti this guy .. He is
capable of being disliked on his own merits.
He can save money on his trip by buying a one-way.

so much that Ive started taking notes
on stone tablets .. jeez they're
heavy.

I agree your brother seems to be an intellectual, and I read his investment advcie regularly along with vronsky DA and others even ANOTHER
who many think must be a member of the Saudi Royals and probably anti-semitic as well. What I was mad about was the anti-semitic remarks in his post Sunday morning at 0417. If is was satire so be it. But there is a quastion of sensitivity here. He says his wife is Jewish, if so how does she feel about that statement. I would like to know? Many will remember when I first started I got off on the wrong foot with my former handle which I meant to be satire also, but Mozel,F* and others took offense. I have tried to make amends for that by being as diplomatic as I can, remember I was a soldier NOT a diplomat! But I reserve the right to respond in kind to what I feel to be mean spireted attacks on Jews. Noew I will get off my soap box AGAIN! Shalom to all.

Before you tell me I misspelled a couple of words please remember that I spell better than I type OK?

Background: The Brussels connection- [a]-lengthy discussions about paper gold market at Comex/LBMA and frustration of being forced to view through the tyranny-of-the-dollar. [b]--received [from Brussels]an email with JUST the Euromint url; no greetings, no text at all--only the URL
[c[ Noticed immediately that there was one heck of a price differential, but--given my prior discussions [prior knowledge], did not want to program Kitco to see what I saw. Knowing that there are Kitco folks fluent in the language, posted url sans text.
[d]-- Adrian saw, immediately, the price differential that I noticed.
[e]--That is not to say that either of us has a LOCK on some New Truth. It does suggest that we all would do well to work this issue! Here is the exchange;

( 1 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 10:12
SDRer__A ( Harbinger's ??? )
http://www.euromint.com/telemint/euro1.htm

( 2 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 10:58
Adrian ( SDRer-A Your 10:12 Euro Coin )
Markings on Coin state: EUROPEAN CENTRALBANK DEUTSCHLAND
( GERMANY ) ,Gold coin is 1/2 oz .999 pure. cost=DM$648=US$363.72
or US$727.44/oz. Interesting!!!!

( 3 ) Date: Sun May 03 1998 11:06
SDRer__A ( Adrain--isn't it just! Because it just MIGHT represent the
REAL price of PHYSICAL GOLD!
The price of paper gold is $302.10
The price of physical gold seems to be TWICE that!
Thanks Adrain...I KNEW someone at this site would jump on it!

( 4 ) kiwi points out, gold @ DM648 1/2 ounce and silver @ DM77 1/2 ounce.... Would be a good ploy for the euros to pull a sharp one and blow the dollar out of the water from the get go. Note interestingly that the gold/silver ratio here is 8:1....EERILY CLOSE TO THE ISLAMIC RATIO.

( 5 ) Fexlix points out: ...I noticed, that one gold franc of the BIS is exactly the twentieth part of the Gold Vreneli in Switzerland ( 20 SFr. ) or of the old 20 Lira gold piece ( ? ) or even the old 20 francs french gold piece
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ADDL COMMENT: Talked to Brussels--asked, What does this really mean? Much charming chatter, the upshot of which was, Youll have to use your own judgement...and the next time your in Brussels, you ( SDRer ) stand for the drinks...

ADDL INFO: -1- Here is an English-based Euro-mint site.
http://euromint.com/
If geography-memory serves, Bochum is in the general area of Bonn ( ? )
-2- Yes, one may buy--they supply an order form one can print out; notice there is also the Telemint, havent checked it out.
-3- Are we seeing an ordering-ranking process here?
-4- Believe Silverbaron will sort this out in no time at all! {:- ) )
-5- Dont forget about the Golden/Silver FrenchFranc/Euro coins--which the bank clearly states are legal tender....our kind of legal tender!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Posting once in each time slot so that everyone has a shot at it...OK?

Charlton Heston......thus sayeth The Stone Tablets of Disney....I. Thou shall not covet thy neighbor's gold....just get it from him somehow quick. II. Thou shall not covet thy neighbor's wife.....especially if she's not worthy of coveting. III. Thou shall not Bear. ( I forgot the rest, sorry ) .....

I am obviously the wrong person to respond to your query. I do believe that paper will not survive in the long run without a limit on how it is created. Is this in my lifetime-again I know not? I do suggest hedging the bet, however.

Gold up or down short term is just betting on the unknown. I do so but I realize it is a bet. Gambling is not all bad, Yes?

One must play the game currently in progress. I do so and win some and lose some. Stock ownership is not the paper money game. Ownership of stock is a claim on the assets of the company. Ownership of paper money is a claim on the debt of the issuing country. If the difference is lost on you I can say nothing further of any consequence.

You are obviously an accomplished trader but who are you or I to suggest that tolerant1 is to be found to be wrong? No, perhaps disagree with the statement but nothing more than that.

Windmill jousting by Don Quixote? Got me son. Tell you after events unfold. We watch this gold market together, Yes? Hedge your bets!

I enjoy your presence at this meeting in cyberspace.
Tom

I have paper and physical. Will paper burn and gold rocket or vice versa? How the hell can anyone predict the future? No one can.

Donald and Speed - thanks for your replies.

Would you be so kind to explain to R/S the meaning of your post to which he took offense. One who does not read all posts here would not understand your THOUGHTS.

As you wish so shall it be.

Tom

Has anyone ever got ICQ *chat* working on a 68K Mac? The company's Mac "help" line looks like a support desk nightmare. Mac owners just don't like this I sick you stuff at all, unless I missed my guess.

http://boards.mirabilis.com/cgi-bin/WebX?14@@.ee6b772>http://boards.mirabilis.com/cgi-bin/WebX?14@@.ee6b772

Mike, either I'm wrong or we are not comparing apples to apples. ( or both, of course ) I'm comparing the relative strength of XAU to gold today ( the XAU/AU ratio ) to the relative strength of XAU to gold historically ( the XAU/AU ratio ) for only the historical data that include XAU's at these levels. Thus the historical level of the XAU/AU ratio when the XAU has been between 80.69 and 90.69 ( 5 pts from here either way ) is .239, way below its present .284.

You know the answer to your own question. You are worldly and I think you are looking for a devils advocate. The only game in town is the paper game . play it as long as it lasts and if there are profits convert some of it to the hard yellow stuff and then you have the best of both worlds.

convert ----------------------- timing----------------------------

for tom
he sounds like a big enough boy to
figure it out for himself .. I dont
make a habit of justifying myself
... he can read what I said ..
if he has a thin skin, no sense of
humour, and an aggresive nature
that's his problem .. let him
explain it to me .. I may even
read what he says.

I must bid you a good day on the Island that is Long. May happy gulls serenade you and the pelicans keep their distance.

Notice what happened to SEA currencies, and they still are using it "paper".
Why foreigners make a bee-line to the US dollar safehaven is beyond logic as the US happens to be the biggest debtor on the planet.
Do you think treasury will pay off the foreigners in gold if the $ were to tank?
Hope tham I'm not promoting gloom and doom by saying that we have no choice but to use that paper under the present circumstance, but we do have the right to mistrust it.

Sierra Nevada Pale Ale to ya even now. Namaste

Studio R
Chuck Heston is one of the very
few sensible people in the Movie
business .. but I dont really like
his pictures much .. pity

How are things in the O'tay Corral. Today, a CUERVO CENTRAL Holiday on the Long Island, haze and fog are lifting...gulp to ya!

He obviously cannot or no offense would have been taken. As you wish! Tom

Gulp to ya! Namaste', gulp, one more for the Lady!

An email list would be a cumbersome replacement for Kitco. Users cannot remain anonymous with an email list. Bart hopes that ICQ will take some of the load off Kitco by providing another way of communicating with features that Kitco doesn't have. Hopefully, it sort of extends Kitco's capabilities without cost to anyone. IMHO :- )

J.D....I hate to admit it.....but I like all those old gladiator & roman gigs Chuck had....Moses was a stretch for him....

T#1....a priceless day here at the Corral....now for my walk...like Ian Anderson's flute...the birds sing to my guitar....this is true. I've had them fly into my little studio before....they are lenient in their musical criticism and I am thankful.

You certainly talk to some interesting people!

James Hillman is regarded as the elder statesman of depth psychology,
The celebrated lecturer and cultural critic has authored twenty books,

Stephen Capen had a conversation with him in Big Sur, California.

Capen: You made a rather startling remark, when I spoke to you recently, which began our conversation: the root concepts of your criticism revolve around "-isms" in many respects..............................


Hillman: Well, I hope it is not going to be a violent -- I don't use the word "hope" Ever. But, I guess I let it slip out. I would not like to see a violent awakening. That's number one. The awakening may simply be a repetition of the awakening in other parts of our history. We must have had an awakening under Theodore Roosevelt, when he began to fight the corporate interests, and the railroads, and the steel barons. You know, big business, he fought big business, and he got support.

It's not a matter that Capitalism is bad. It is unrestrained Capitalism that is bad. And we have now this kind of corporate, unrestrained corporational world -- Get the government off my back -- may make sense to a little man who's burdened -- he has a bake shop and he's got all these regulations about cleanliness and worker damage and -- you know, he's got tons of papers to fill out, yes, I understand that. But we need the government on the back of the Big Boys. Really.

There is nothing -- You know if we return everything to the States, which is part of this new agenda, return the power back to the States -- Do you remember? I remember -- what the States were like in the thirties and why the federal government stepped in and took over. The police were corrupt in the States. The South was running its own little fiefs. We had to have a federal government that -- we had to have an FBI, because the police were corrupt. We had to have a Federal Bureau of Investigation of impartiality -- people who did belong to the local politicians. There was nothing more corrupt in America than local politics! So we wanted a federal government, which was impartial, and dutiful, and responsible.

That was the idea in the thirties. We trusted the federal government. Now, we've returned the power to the States, the States have less power than the multinational corporations that live in those States, that are incorporated in those States. Meaning there will be even less control over the multinational corporations.

Capen: And then how is it possible to change that if every important figure in the government, right up to the top, is in the pockets of the masters?

Hillman: Only by what you called, or I called, the awakening. The Awakening. That's going to be harder and harder to do, because the pharmaceutical companies are also engaged in keeping us numbed. Or anesthetized. Anaesthesia. Robert J. Lifton, his new books on Hiroshima, and a very careful study of Truman's decisions and the denials that are going on all through the culture about it. And at the time of the decision.

Lifton says we suffer from psychic numbing. But I think we suffer from just plain ** physiological numbing ( laughs ) ** through the vast amounts of drugs that have now been made over-the-counter drugs. Stuff I used to take for this or that is now available over the counter. And you can now be tested, the governmen or the pharmaceutical companies will give you tests to prove that ** you're depressed, ** and now we know how to deal with that one, ** Prozac, ** and so and so forth.

So, the awakening becomes more and more difficult. We have a culture where the ** slaves vote ** for their ** masters. ** So, when you say how we going to change, have you got some ideas?


End of Part One.

FWIW.....Good Read....Take Care

for Rangy fans
I have no idea if this is anywhere near correct
or not .. we will know soon .. A spread sheet
calculation follows on what I THINK the next
NAV of rangold will look like .. their will be
based on Mar 31 prices .. The one below are
current . I could be way out on liabilities


stock, shrs ( mm ) , price ( Rd ) , Mill Rd
harmony,2.75,26,71.5
options,4.4,6,26.4
dbndeep,3.25,16,52
options,1.09,5, 5.45
b opions,2.16,1.3,2.808
kelgran,1.98,3, 5.94
RMP,0.05,2,0.1
RRS,11.34,30,340.2
crown,2.38,1.7, 4.046
unlisted....... 140
other assets -liab .... -22
total=626.444
Nav/sh= 15.27 on 41 mill shares

DISNEY: NT stands for New Technology as applied to a robust 32-bit clean Windows OS purported to be very crash resistant. NT4 and soon NT5 are aimed at servers & high-end workstations. Dont worry about being a dumb***. I had an hour-long chat with a Microsoft chap who wanted to know what I thought of Microsoft. After I softened him up with my qualifications as a computer instructor/consultant/technician I let him have it re pain-in-the-a** software, systems, incompatibilities, upgrades, etc. That is why sales of systems to newbies has stalled and corps ( and I ) have had it re upgrades or new software that breaks our systems and requires ever more CPU speed, RAM, storage, training, etc.
We have far to many other important things to do than hassle with software, hardware, irqs, ddls, dmas, tsrs, etc. That is why I run Macs - the best there is but it isnt saying much!

http://www.worldmind.com/Cannon/Culture/Interviews/hill1x1.html

Welcome to the Interviews section of Worldguide! You have found the
October 25, 1995 interview with writer James Hillman, recorded at Esalen
Institute in Big Sur, aired on the Futurist Radio Hour in the San Francisco Bay Area.

US Treasury interest and the principal debt is backed by the Productive Capacity of the American People who have an even bigger combined debt than the US Government who allows US Industry to go offshore to obtain greater profits, while destroying the livelihoods of many of its citizens who are obligated to pay the treasury debt that was imposed upon them.
Then this damn industry expects us to buy their products.
Pretty sharp group, that Government and Industry, I'd say

I have a better than average understanding of the English language as well as a working knowledge of German,less fluency in French and Vietnamese. I understood the remarks well enough but dont know your sense of humor, as I said if that was it so be it. But ist was insensative to say, especially since your wife is also Jewish. I wonder if she appreciated the joke. I would rather not get into a urination contest with you or anyone else, so If I misunderstood you and the rest of my Jewish friends who wrote me ( there were several ) asking HOW is would handle it I told them essentially the same thing. But if as you say it WAS satire well and good I can forget it. I do follow your posts as I think you offer good advice on investment and if I were wealthier I could act on more of it. Shalom.

Once again upon reading my own posts I found that the ingers went on the wrong keys a few times. Sorry but you should be able to know what I meant. Gruss Gott.

Once again upon reading my own posts I found that the ingers went on the wrong keys a few times. Sorry but you should be able to know what I meant. Gruss Gott.

and I learn most when I just 'listen'/read...
as from your posts...which are humorous and SCARY
[how do you manage to do THAT!] {:- ) )

Wow - what a neat nickname!
Yes, Prometheus - giver of fire to the Golden ones, I am fairly new to this site. Been a mite longer over on K2 where it seems to be more of a happy-hours-after-a-rough-day-of-business type atmosphere - really fun even if some gold discussion slips in between the lines.

I can understand you. I'm personally not exactly
a soldier or retired soldier, but sometimes I prefer
to go straight forward as well. It's all about character...

In regard to John Disney, he is a good normal person,
sometimes with an edged language, but he is a very good
person, please trust me. You may find some posters
over here whom you would like to fix first, if you
wish to have some justified action.

However, remember the first Amendment. You must also
consider that some people are not obligated to love
Jews or Blacks or Whites or Arabs, but unless it
starts to look like real gun is really pointed in your
direction, you got to step on your throat, acknowledge
that world is very different from being ideal and continue
practice at the gun range, just in case...

I hope you are not upset any more with my Brother John,
who does not belong to the category of people you do not like,
trust me, pleeease...

I'm not trying to teach you, sir, just hate to see anybody
getting a wrong idea.

Beverly Hills eh.

Your 16:23 seems to put this sad dispute to an end.Shalom.

RJ
I sent you an e-mail re Platinum coins. Did you receive it?

Ok the war is over!

Very Good, lets get back to gold, vodka and pickles...

Robert Heinlein in several of his stories told of a future time of chaos before we sobered up and moved on to the stars. He called them the "Crazy Years". The last few and the several should definitely qualify.
Lazarus Long, one of his major characters, had a real disdain for fiat money. He traded only in commodities. His other philosophical views and way-of-life has much to be said for it as well.

For the record, I don't recall objecting to your handle.
I have noticed that you are providing a lot of anecdotal evidence to support the theory that Peace and The Chosen People cannot exist together in the same country.

Naked lady on a bull = Europa being seduced by Zeus? Lots of earlier references dating back to Minoan and Cretan civilizations, though. IMHO

I've been gone for the weekend, and just saw your postings about the Euromint coins. Let's assume ( I'm not sure if this is correct ) that they are an authorized mint for the production of Euro coins.....Please ask you european contact if this price contains a VAT, which could represent a considerable premium over the spot gold/silver price. I believe I saw a posting ( I think from Fred@Vienna ) a while back which stated that bullion coins are subject to VAT, but I don't know the percentage. If these coins are ommemeratives or medallions, instead of strictly legal tender coins, then presumably a good part of the purchase cost would be profit for the mint - just as they are for commemerative issues of the US mint.

Folks, I just got back from a trip to the rising sun. The Japanese consumer is scared to death and have stopped spending money accept for necessities. The people there have lost faith in their government and are demanding change. Interest rates are very low and there are capital shortages in all industries. Companies don't have the cash to expand domestically , and if they do , they don't spend it. Business activity is declining and most people are selling their stocks on the Tokyo exchange just to get the money.Nobody's credit is very good and everyone wants safe capital. I believe the average person in Japan is beginning to discover gold and I heard many people discussing investment in gold. People are worried about the safety of their banks and the average housewife is withdrawing money from her saving account.
So far, Japan has not bought much gold but I believe they are starting now to buy as much as they can find on the open market.
Thank you

Emmett Tyrell, Jr., Richmond Times Dispatch, Feb. 15 1983.
"Every peace movement of this century has been followed by war"
FWIW......Take Care

Why on earth would you have such a quote ready at hand and what on earth does it relate to ? What is a peace movement ?

May 2, 1998

Marines heading for Chicago for urban warfare planning

WASHINGTON ( AP )  As the U.S. Marine Corps looks ahead to the next century, it predicts few wars waged on open battlefields. Big foreign cities are more likely the site of most future conflicts. But the marines are ill-prepared for combat among skyscrapers and sidewalks.

So as part of a two-year experiment in big-city warfare, about 80 marine officers will visit Chicago next week to tour the subway system, a water filtration plant, bridges, the police and fire departments  even the city's underground tunnel network.

"Our tactics, doctrine and technology have not kept up with urbanization,"

Big cities are considered likely scenes of combat because 70 per cent of the world's population will live in urban areas by 2020 and because cities tend to have such classic ingredients of conflict as poverty and cultural, religious and social tension.

Krulak established the warfighting lab in 1995, and it has a budget of $32.5 million this year.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Urban-Warfare.html

Danish bosses seek talks in general strike
About 550,000 workers  more than one in 10 residents  have been on strike since Monday.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Denmark-Strike.html

ROR - your experience in DC area and your comment about the economy being much worse than the official propaganda portrays rings very true here as well. Maybe its my own socio-economic peer group but business has stunk since before Thanksgiving last year. Ever since the UPS strike and the UP merger its gone downhill. I expect a fifth of the business on our main street to pack it in before winter.
My dad's region in NE Penna, on the other hand is booming - more industry and businesses going up every month. The new grocery stores and eating joints don't have many customers though - they're obviously overbuilding on the promise of better times ahead. He lived through the depression and can't understand it. BTW - most of the new construction is in an old swamp.

National slogan 'Malaysia Can!' now has ironic ring
To ease unemployment, the government intends to rid the country of one million illegal immigrants in "Operation Go Away," a move that sparked riots at several detention camps, resulting in nine deaths and condemnation by human rights groups.

As the predominantly Muslim nation marked the new Islamic year Monday, its leader did not offer his 21 million people much encouragement

"Our weaknesses are due to our culture which does not stress hard work, seeking of knowledge, moderation in life, adopting good values and other things,"
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Malaysia-Cant.html

Indonesian students stage most violent protests yet

At campuses in southern Jakarta, protesters shouted "Hang Suharto" and hoisted posters calling for his ouster. The protests have turned increasingly personal in recent weeks, with students shouting demands for Suharto to quit. More demonstrations are turning violent as students try to force their way off campus in defiance of a ban on street rallies.

Indonesia is implementing economic reforms in exchange for a $43 billion US bailout led by the International Monetary Fund.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Indonesia-Protest.html

FWIW Take Care

Going purely on trust, I assume you have an explanation tying all these clips and quotes together. But I don't know what it is yet.

happening in fin mkts. I golfed yesterday with 2 young accountants, who had settled in Vancouver 10-12 years ago when their parents emigrated there from Hong Kong. One of them worked for a large Utility Co. & kept up with international financial developments. I asked him how he felt about the situation in China & whether or not they would devalue. He felt that because the Premier stated that there would be no devaluation, there was no reason to worry about it. Another example of linear thinking. IMO,
the Chinese will have no choice as their large banks are forced to take massive writeoffs & many more uncompetitive Cos shut down, throwing millions out of work. That will be the event that speeds up the death spiral that the Japanese economy is in. Not to mention the rest of SEAsia. The end result of all this cannot be beneficial for the Western economies. There is not doubt in my mind that we will be visited by a crippling deflation as the western CBs attempt to push on a string. I'm not sure how the POG will fare under this cataclysmic scenario. Initially, I'm worried that the CBs will continue with their AU sales in order to maintain social programs & try to prevent rioting in the streets. Not unlike some of the impoverished aristocracy who were forced to sell off the family jewels & silver, in a pathetic attempt to keep up appearances.
But if the POG stays low enough to force more mine closures, eventually supply/demand fundamentals will re-assert themselves.

BTW, the young Chinese accountant displayed an abysmal lack of imagination on the course & even though his Great Big Humungous Bertha is worth twice as much as my entire 10 year old set, I beat him by 11 strokes.

...let's see now...

Duh, if da price o gold fell almost five dollars on Friday because of "false" gold short rumors about a Bank of Belgium gold sale, then logic seems to suggest it must RISE much more than that on Monday in order to correct Friday's erroneous market move...at least that would be the case in an efficient market, yes?

Doowah Doowah

Yowsah.

Thanks..

F*

for RT ( and Oris ) .
It takes TWO sides to agree that
war is over not just ONE and I'm
still thinking about it .. tough
guy. I go to sleep now .. Maybe
Ill forget about it.

...just maybe...just maybe Wim "Ol'Dutch" Duisenberg, the new ECM head, might announce on Monday that Germany, France and Italy are selling off their entire gold reserves, this radical move inspired by the extremely "impressive" Netherlands economy....

In place of gold reserves, maybe....just maybe...a composite of cheese, tulips, and wooden shoe reserves????????

Doowah. Doowah.

Yowsah.

Thanks.

F*

for Farfelnickle
Logic would suggest that and markets
are not logical so we'll probably get
a lower close than friday's close ..
I hope NOT

You'd think the regulators would look into who was massively shorting into the rumour as well. I ain't hoedin' my breat'.

...on Monday, inspired by Wim "Ol' Dutch" Duisenberg and the "roaring" Netherlands economy, the mega-rich French Rothschilds announce that they are selling off their enormous gold holdings for whatever price they can get...so that they can get into something more substantive and lucrative like....

....tulips, cheese, and wooden shoes?????

Doowah Doowah.

Yowsah.

Thanks.

F*

Saw that you were having a problem with installing the ICQ on a WindowsNT machine. I selected the version for WinNT 3.51 and have it working OK. Do you know the version of the software? When you turn on your computer next time watch the loading information scroll by. It should let you know.

...one of the Kitco technical chartists revives his infamous KISS ( Keep it Simple, Stupid ) analysis....and draws a straight line down from 302 to 200!!!!!!!!!!!

Doowah Doowah

Yowsah

Thanks.

F*

I have been following your posts for since about Oct. 1996 and have always appreciated them. I remember when you last left because of unfair criticism. Your return is great news, please make it a permanent one! There is no reason for your admirers to be deprived of your comments because of a few who respond inappropriately.

Best not to bother Brussels, however! Sent following to
Euromint:

telemint@euromint.com
Bitte senden Sie mir Informationsmaterial zu Ihrem Programm

Wueden Sie mir bitte mitteilen, ob eine Zusatzsteuer ( value added tax ( VAT ) angerechnet wird und wieviel, wenn wir 1/2 UnzeGold Euro kaufen wueden.. Bitte senden Sie zusaetzliche Information ueber Ihr Euro program.. Vielen Dank fuer Ihre Muehe .

We'll see how efficient and prompt they are. {:- )

We need the Federal Govt to look out for the little guy. This states rights stuff is just a way to allow big business corruption to run amok as they hate powerful bureaucracies which can stand up to their own powerful bureaucracies who care only for profit and not the average persons well being ( though they readily accept his government subsidies and bailouts ) . God Bless the Trial Lawyers Association of America, the defender of the average person against big money hegemony. Death to Tobacco FIRST ON THE LIST!!!!!

Patrick Henry Foundation for Common Law Studies
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; he will save us" ( Isaiah 33:22 ) .
http://members.aol.com/crwnrts/anti-fed/

Thanks.

If gold is stripped of its role in official money.
What would its price float down to - Monday afternoon?

I don't need the Federal Government to look out for me.

The feds sure looked out for the little guy at Waco and Ruby Ridge. Ready, aim, fire. I'd just as soon be left alone, thank you.

The Dollar is up against European currencies in overnight trading.

Looks as if the US spin doctors have done their job in making the Europeans and the Euro not look so credible.

Chirac says euro/national currencies might coexist only two months


PARIS, May 3 ( AFP ) - French President Jacques Chirac said the
period of co-existence between national currencies and the euro
might be limited to two months rather than six.
Speaking on French television, Chirac said the dual circulation
of the single currency and the national monies of countries joining
the new currency zone will "probably" last two months.
The European Union accords on the euro say that dual circulation
could go up to July 1, 2002 but that individual countries will have
the right to shortern the period if they wish.
Euro coins and banknotes are to go into circulation January 1,
2002, with withdrawal of national coins and banknotes set for July 1
at the latest for 290 million Europeans.

I went through the joys and subsequent despairs of tumor angiogenesis factor and the magic bullet of anti-cancer monoclonal antibodies linked to toxins or radionucleides, so I will wait for the data and for somone else to confirm Judah's work.

Japanese premier hails European move for single currency


TOKYO, May 3 ( AFP ) - Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto
on Sunday hailed the European move towards a single currency,
officials said.
"I pay my respect to ( Europe's ) overcoming various difficulties
and making great progress toward a historical experiment," Hashimoto
said in a letter to European Commission President Jacques Santer and
British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Britain chairs the European Union at present but is not among
the 11 countries which decided Saturday to adopt the euro on January
1, 1999.
"I hope the introduction of the euro will benefit the whole of
international society," Hashimoto said.
Taku Yamasaki, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's policy
board chairman, voiced caution over the yen's possible decline as a
global currency after the emergence of the euro.
"The euro will become a key currency on par with the dollar,"
Jiji Press quoted Yamasaki as telling a party gathering in Tokyo.
"Japan needs to create a bloc where the yen will circulate as
the Asian currency to settle deals."
The European Union at a summit in Brussels finalised the list of
countries which will adopt the euro.

ROR - If you believe your post, then I recommend reading every
post on this site for the last month. If your post was seditionary
baiting, then you've hit your mark.
Terrifying Thoughts - The only terrifying post, for me, on this
site has been mozel's of some weeks back, where he spoke of
conspiracy and suggested that those looking for conspiratorial
evidence need look no further than here.

Reportedly is praising the Euro as it will challenge attemted US domination and will result in a more even handed approach to problems in the region.

Speed the GOVT protects the people from Capitalist extremism ( it used to be called feudalism or robber baronism in the old days, Hey its there property RIGHT!?. Your examples of Ruby Ridge while right are just like Liberals using The most tearful welfare case to justify a program. The govt and the trial Lawyers are the only thing big money fears because the are regulated by laws which give the average man access when aggrieved and can make even the poorest person a nuisance to the rich and powerful as the system allows or incentivises smart people to represent the downtrodden so they can become rich. See Capitalism works it just the rich and powerful dont like capitalism or democracy when it is against their interests.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980502/japan_s_ka_1.html

Ich scrieb ihnen auch, aber Ich verwendete Englisch. Mein Deutsch ist nach mehn als 30 Jahren rostig. ( ;^ ) ( Thank you Altavista )

Will there be a sell off?
Do recent regulatory changes make this more likely?
If lower, by how much?

If the mkt drops signigifantly, how long must it stay lower in order that the banks must report it as a loss?

Thanks all.....

It is prudent to be sceptical of "promising research", but hope is more valuable than gold. Best Wishes

Is Prechter saying that we have now entered the wave C, ( another leg down ) that will send gold to a new low? I talked to Peter Rehmer in Vancouver about 4 months ago, he stated that the wave down would be caused my massive deflation as investors liquidated assets ie "gold" to pay bills. He stated that after gold bottomed then it would soar as mass panic set in and the deflation/depression monster destroyed all paper assets and cleaned away all debts. Any Prechter update would be appreciated.

Go Gold

The Socialist Democracies of Europe ARE and will be the new model for the world. When the US ( s ) hits the fan the weaknesses in this system which underreport social problems and paints a gleeful picture on behalf of those in control will unwind like nothing has ever come apart.This is the real reason for the Euro. THEY KNOW THE US IS ECONOMICALLY DOOMED. Let the band play on ( start the Euro ) while the ship slowly sinks ( US stk mkt and credit bubble and external debtor status ) .

Russian gold output to be 72-118 tonnes in 1998


MOSCOW, April 29 ( AFP ) - Russia's gold output will come to
between 72 and 118 tonnes in 1998, down from 122.9 tonnes last year,
ITAR-TASS said Tuesday, quoting the chairman of the Russian union of
gold miners.
Union leader Valery Braiko said the absence of plans to open
more mines this year was "alarming", for the gold mines ensured
1997's higher output.
The critical situation of Russia's gold mining industry worsened
in 1997 and the crime rate in areas of gold mines was on the rise,
Braiko explained.
According to experts, illegal production in 1998 may amount to
some 10 to 20 tonnes, TASS said.

Gott im Himmel! Konnen Sie deutsch nicht besser sprechen? Was ist los? : )
Perhaps a $10.00 upmove in gold would help, nicht wahr mein Herr? Won't happen tomorrow or Tuesday, however. Perhaps by Wednesday, after we clean out the remaining weak longs! Wiedersehen!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980503/asia_crisi_1.html

He thinks we have just made an ABC move up from March and will either make new lows OR this ABC is part of a bigger "A" move up in which case it will drop back to the Jan low in 3 waves with increasingly negative sentiment, after which it would come back to recent levels, and then resuming its bear course.

Japan, US to agree on duty-free cyberspace: reports


TOKYO, May 3 ( AFP ) - Japan and the United States will issue a
joint declaration backing tariff-free trade through the Internet
when the two nations' leaders meet in Britain this month, reports
said Sunday.
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and US President Bill
Clinton will adopt the statement at bilateral talks on the sidelines
of the Group of Eight summit in Birmingham on May 15-17, the Asahi
and other papers said.
US Commerce Secretary William Daley reached an accord with
visiting Japanese Posts and Telecommunications Minister Shozaburo
Jimi to prepare the statement, the papers said in dispatches from
Washington.
Software and other non-tangible items circulate over the
computer web, but no tariffs are imposed on such electronic
commerce.
Trade ministers of Japan, the United States, Canada and the
European Union last week agreed to urge World Trade Organisation
members to agree not to impose any new tariffs on electronic
commerce.
The move at the four-way meeting in France was to give members
time to decide in 1999 whether they want duty-free cyberspace, and
did not go as far as the US wished for a clear immediate commitment
to duty free cyberspace.

IMHO Heinlein's discussion of the the Prophet and crazy years hit the nail on the head, his utopian ideas re gold standard, TANSTAAFL et lex talionis were close to the mark, but the story of Lazarus Long and Mrs. Smith was entirely nuts.

Mel Fisher allegations:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/human_interest/oddly_enough/story.html?s=z/reuters/980501/odd/stories/treasure_1.html

California banning Caesar Salads or saving them?

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/human_interest/oddly_enough/story.html?s=z/reuters/980501/odd/stories/salad_1.html

Tyoung wrote:

"Ownership of stock is a claim on the assets of the company. Ownership of paper money is a claim on the debt of the issuing country."

I submit that BOTH are a debt to you that has zero intrinsic value. What happened to people who owned Bre-X? The money has gone to zero, because they had a piece of paper worth zero. When you buy paper, of any sort, it is all you have.

That so many here trade futures, options, and stocks, albeit precious metals based, belies the Great Moaning hereabouts regarding the evils of this paper.

If gold is supreme, then let it be gold, not a note with the word gold written on it.

The physical metal reigns supreme.

Seems the tables have turned. The metal heads on this site find themselves defending paper investments. All here trade in paper investments.

I deal in physical metal ONLY.

This would seems to support the underlying philosophy of the vast majority of those folks here.

Why then, are they so often displeased with me?

Huh?

Qestor@Observations

I received no e-mail.

STUDIOR -

I will forward my studio questions later this week.

OK

Maybe the Physical ego bulge in your SHORTs is what gets people?

I have asked many questions this weekend. Very few responses, and none of merit.

Why are these questions so hard to answer?

No, instead it is much easier to close ears and march on.

Yet these questions probe the very basis for the beliefs and opinions here.

No answers to those.

No answers to be found.

The quest is in the question

A quest unfulfilled.

Uh Huh

For such a would be bright individual you disappoint me. Bre-X paper stock is worthless? Why?

Tom

Ask me anything. I'll give it my best shot.

The market moves up or down without me.

No effect on gold have I.

When the road is down, I'll coast into profits

When the hill is steep, I look for power behind my trades

Either direction it chooses

It does so without worries

Of what WE may say or do

Let's get some perspective here.

Yes

Let's

We need to be alert--political anagrams alert {:- ) --in the
next weeks.

Gianni Dioro--Spin is right. Concern is that they are so
good at it. Remarkable how well lies work when people don't
THINK...very depressing {:- (

any luck with thong beach thingy....wher's Linda?

When Microsoft shoots somebody standing on a front porch, or Intel burns down a building full of people, then you'll have a valid counter example. Until then, I'd like less government, please. I just got my property tax appraisal notice. I am now taxed by no less than 8 governmental entities on my homestead. That's in addition to paying sales tax, income tax, medicare tax, S.S. tax, gasoline tax, second phone line tax, and if I'm too crafty in avoiding taxes, then there is the Alternative Minimum Tax. Apologies to those taxing entities I missed. Oh yeah, go gold.

"See Capitalism works it just the rich and powerful dont like capitalism or democracy when it is against their interests."

True ! ....Take Care

Donald -

Read my posts from Friday forward.

Many questions there.

Few answers here.

TYoung -

You have Bre-X stock? And how much will one pay you for it?

Should be good for internet stocks on Monday - No?

My friend, you forget that most of us here are merely the little fish swimming in an investment sea of vast proportions. You and a few others are the sharks ( or if you would prefer you may be a grouper or king mackeral ) . Angry? I doubt it. But most of us don't have the basic info to make such momentous judgements as you call for. So we just wait for news of one of the big fish scattering a few crumbs. IMHO

Tom

do you trade in futures and if so do you know to what extent the stochastic partial differential equation ( Black-Scholes ) solution is used by traders for taking market positions. Several ex Applied Math Phd's colleagues have been lured into this field and they say all they do is program a code for Black-Scholes and then find the absolutely fastest computer on the market ....this is the guy who wins at present, at least in currency trading....would it be the same in Gold?

Try and answer the question. The answer has to do with assets being greater than liabilities. Think hard my friend-it is not that difficult!

Tom

http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=gc%3Dm8&tables=table

Linda is in the past.

Why do you think I have so much time to post here?

The thongs abound.

Waves breaking 6 - 8 with sets over 10 at The Wedge.

Thongs were at The Wedge.

Thongs were, more precisely, in the wedge.

Uh Huh

The thing about Prechter's outlook on Gold is that Gold used to be the Denominator ( was currency ) and is now looked upon as a numerator.

I suppose Prechter is trying look at Gold in its relation to the Supply and demand of Fiat currency.

He thinks that many paper Dollars ( supply ) will be destroyed, and that those who have dollars left, after stocks and junk bonds collapse, will have Lots of buying power.

But the money supply is not fixed like it used to be when there was a fixed amount of gold coin in circulation. What is to stop the USG from trying to print its way out of trouble? Alan Greenspan sure has the money spigots running at full steam.

I wonder why his deflationary gold scenario didn't work out for Asians last fall ( Gold went up in local currencies ) . Was it because much of their debt was external and when the banks called back their loans, they couldn't come up with the dollars? Or was it because their govts resorted to printing more currency?

If what you say is in fact Prechter's current opinion, it has not changed for over ten years. The whole House of Prechter is based upon it. The error upon which it is based ( one of them, I should say ) was recognized by his former colleague A J "Jack" Frost in a slim monograph published in 1989. Basically Prechter's Elliott wave count for gold has been incorrect since 1980. Too technical and time-consuming to go into here. If interested, post your email address.

Tyoung -

I have not a clue what Bre-X paper is worth. Yes, let's focus on this minute little thingie and let the larger issues pass. Tis a worthy try. I don't even know if it is still traded.

You tell me what it is worth.

You then tell me what most paid for it.

This would still seem to be at odds with your prior posts.

I deal in gold, not paper.

Go Gold

I enjoy your analyses of the XAU/AU ratio. You both appear to be saying that the XAU is now overpriced in regard to the POG. IF you are correct, this can be ameliorated in one of three ways. 1 ) XAU can drop. 2 ) POG can go up. 3 ) A combination of 1 ) & 2 ) . This is all relative, mind you ( eg they could BOTH go up or down at varying rates ) . Comments??

I would be willing to pay US$10 for any ( one ) valid Bre-X stock certificate for a thousand or more shares just to prove they are worth SOMETHING. Really.

You asked: What do the Italians bring to the table? The Lira?

Answer:

Yes; and 2700 tonnes of gold. They also bring strategic geography. Italy can be thought of as the Florida of a United Europe. Linked by a common currency freely exchangeable could bring many benefits to Italy.

Leadership row clouds dawn of the euro
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/world/world1.html
Eleven European nations sealed a historic pact yesterday to merge their currencies, but only after a damaging political compromise on the leadership of the new ECB.

Birth of euro creates a tense family
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/world/world2.html
The champagne toasts in Brussels at the dawn of the euro era mask deep divisions between France and Germany on future control of the euro.

The continental shift of the euro
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/perspective/perspective4.html
The European club is open and ready to trade under a single currency, threatening to overturn the world's balance of financial and political power.

Euro launch marred by squabble over central bank
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/world/weurope.html

Second wave - The real Asian impact is yet to hit corporate Australia. --
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/market/markets3.html

With the creation of the European Central Bank on the weekend, the spotlight is set to shine on gold and its role, or non-role, as a reserve currency asset.

Just how much gold is called-in by the European Central Bank to back the new European currency, the euro, will clearly be a key factor behind the level of gold prices for the rest of the decade. How the ECB structures its reserves is a watershed for gold. It ranks with collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1970 when the gold-US dollar link was finally ended.

But on Friday, right on the eve of the European summit, the gold market lost the plot. Gold fell to $US302.50/oz in late New York trading, its lowest level for a month.

It was a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" day. For the past two months gold had been egged higher by hopes that last weekend's European Union summit would put an end to gold sales by Europe's central banks.

And it was seen as perhaps a fresh beginning for the much maligned precious metal. Just last January, gold fell to its lowest price in 18 years. Many gold producers and some analysts felt gold might rediscover a role in today's global financial system if the European Union endorses its role as a reserve currency.

But on Friday, the gold market realised that gold would, in fact, take a deep back seat at the Brussels summit over the weekend. And the market was right. Gold did not rate a mention. There was no announcement as to the composition of the ECB's reserves and the future role of gold.

Now the market expects a decision by the ECB on the role of gold when it goes "live" in July, suggests Mr Andy Smith, precious metals analyst with Union Bank of Switzerland in London.

The next few months will be a very nervous time for gold producers and central banks worldwide. "Because EMU ( European Monetary Union ) will be a major step in the evolution of the international monetary system, the composition of the ECB's reserves is being viewed with keen interest by those who toil each day to produce and sell golds," said Mr Robert Pringle of the World Gold Council.

Analysts expect gold to comprise anywhere between five and 30 per cent of the ECB's assets.

Some, however, see the formation of the euro as being just another episode in gold's demise as a reserve currency. "This single event will not alter the fact that the mobilisation of gold is on. It's wishful thinking that this is a simple event risk. The structural issues remain," says Mr Smith.

By structural issues, Mr Smith means the massive gold holdings of about 30,000 tonnes in the vaults of the world's central banks and the moves by banks to reduce these stocks due to fundamental changes in the global economy over the past 40 years. Changes like the floating of currencies, rise in derivatives markets to cope with risk, globalisation and the supremacy of US dollar denominated assets over gold.

The whole process of European monetary union has been accompanied by steady European central bank selling of gold reserves. "EMU presages the opening of a freeway in gold's demonetisation," he says. Whatever the decision by EMU, "most permutations produce the same prescription -- European central banks will be more obviously overweight in gold," said Mr Smith. A contrary view however is presented by the World Gold Council. "The whole question of how much gold will be in the ECB is not the real issue," said Mr George Milling-Stanley of the World Gold Council in New York.

"The issue is that once the European Monetary System comes into existence . . . it will have effective control over all of the reserves -- both foreign exchange and gold -- of all of the member countries," he said.

And he points to the wording of the Maastricht Treaty itself to justify his views.

But Maastricht, like beauty, is often in the eye of the beholder. "The Maastricht Treaty is unclear on the level of control over the reserve assets remaining with national central banks," said Mr Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst with the Macquarie Bank group.

Gold is Australia's third most important commodity export after coal and aluminium ( including alumina ) .

So hold onto your hat. The next few months will either confirm whether gold is simply a relic of past financial systems or whether it still has a role to play in today's global financial system.

You have shown yourself to be more concerned with being argumentative than being right. Enough of such balderdash!!

Tom

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/market/markets4.html
The impact of Indonesia's financial crisis on its corporate sector rolled in with a vengeance last week as company after company detailed the impact of the rupiah's collapse on their results.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980504/market/markets2.html
Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has a rough rule of thumb to apply when using fears of a rate rise to control an unruly sharemarket,

Try and answer the question.

Tom

I'd like to hear it:

email: ronch@tinet.ie

thanks

and if I'm wrong I'll be rich....

can't lose.

back to the laws.

surf's up.

chaos and order will always balance....for cherokee.

Dr. Dolittle

TYoung @ "The answer has to do with assets being greater than liabilities."

Using this reasoning would put the US in a rosy picture, yes?

A five trillion dollar economy with a five trillion dollar debt.

This would be as a 100K per year household, with a 100K mortgage.

When viewed this way, the picture is not so bleak, yes?

I would say the assets of the US are greater than its liabilities.

Even than some here.

OK

A gaggle of European socialists led by France are going to establish a gold-backed currency and defend gold so that pigs may fly. Yep. It must be true. I read it on the internet.

At a music store yesterday I tried to pay with a credit card that expires 2001...the cash register wouldn't accept it. Thank God the manager was able to over-ride it somehow. I've been enjoying my Steve Earle CD ever since. Copperhead Road!

Riches to you..........

Yes

The government "owns" the economy? Tom

You said:

"Using this reasoning would put the US in a rosy picture, yes?"

I disagree. Assets of individual Americans have not exceeded liabilities for several years. I have numbers somewhere. A deflation will worsen the mix.

And the Italians are fiscally sound, yes?

Very pretty place.

Socialistic policies wrecked the economy though.

Yes

The answer is that ownership of the stock certificate is a claim on the value, if any, of assets over liabilities.

This is not a claim on the debt of a nation or other nations. Figure out the NAV of the US or any other Nation. Think man, think!

Tom

looked at mu !9:40, so I shall repeat.

http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=gc%3Dm8&tables=table

The most important post I have seen here needs repeating, soos
here it is-

Why is Smart Money Buyin Gold Shares??

Date: Sat May 02 1998 21:03
Digdeep ( Homestake purchase ) ID#267276:
Just in case some of you dont know Baron August Von Finck of
germany now owns 8.8% of Homestake mining. It was reported in
todays Barons 13d filings that he just increased his holdings in the last month. The baron is is very wealthy industrialist and a member of the group of 300.

Tally Ho

Yet we have enormous untapped natural resources and invent the technology the rest of the world covets. The US is the shining light for nations such as Russia and China. They see Baywatch. They want to live like us. We got babes here. In thongs.

http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=gc%3Dm8&tables=table

Oh, those assets. You win!

Enough of such poppycock.

Tom Bbml

TYoung -

Good answer, from a book.

The world works in a more ornery manner.

A THING is worth what you can get for it.

Zero more.

No animosity offered here. I like you.

Yes

OK, You won.

You made me laugh.....

I've enjoyed turning goldbug arguments 180 degrees back on them.

Seems nothing is absolute, yes?

Except Vodka

Yes

email emitted

Farfel -

It seems as if have we both have held forth in grand style , sharing these pages peacefully these last days.

This is good, and I wish it to continue.

This is a large place, there is room for all of us, and many more..

I am a smartass, and I have a sharp tongue, but I am not mean. Others here will attest. My demonstration of vitriol had but one purpose, and that seems well served of late. I got very personal in my retaliation to you. This was the intent but the intent was not to hurt. The words were hurtful, the heart much less so. For the personal hurts I offered you, I apologize.

Your knowledge of worldwide markets is extensive, my own more specific. You seem well and true a good man, and good men may disagree. We may disagree today only to find ourselves brothers in arms tomorrow. You have added no small contribution to this forum and the reading is more rewarding with animus set aside.

We can continue to coexist separately, in this fine and sturdy Manner, but we cannot pretend the other is not in the room. A full participant of this forum should feel free to comment on any portion of any post and not feel as if comments will bring doom or the threat of such. In this spirit this letter is posted.

I will no longer pretend you are not here, because you are and I've been reading your posts anyway. I will feel free to comment on your posts as occasion arises. I will do so with respect, and will curb my tendencies towards caustic wit. I will make every effort to insure that bad blood between us does not rise to thwart. I invite you to do the same.

We are not so dislike, as you may be surprised to find, and I can find agreement in much of what you say. The rest, well. the rest is the differences. It is not the eighty percent that all brethren are alike that is remembered, but the twenty percent apart, and therein we find Mozart, and Einstein, and Babe Ruth, the doorman, the baker, and you and I. The differences make us who we are. We cannot deny the rest.

Besides, any man who enjoyed "Good Will Hunting" is OK by me. I'm actually sorry I choose that little foil, as I feel I cheapened this film of supreme humanity for a quick laugh. But, then again, I only steal from the best.

You are a Neighbor. You look over the same mountains as I when we turn our gaze eastward over the snow capped San Gabriels toward the rest of Kitcoland. I will try to mend my fence with my neighbor. I offer this.

To Borrow from the Bard

All have not offended; For those that were,

It is not square to take on those that are, revenges:

Crimes, like lands, Are not inherited.

Then, dear countryman, Bring in thy ranks, but leave without thy rage:

Which in the bluster of thy wrath must fall With those that have offended:

Like a shepherd, Approach the fold and cull the infected forth,

But kill not all together.

And

By Jeshu, I am your I am your majesty's countryman,

I care not who know it; I will confess it to all the world:

I need not to be ashamed of your majesty, praised be God,

So long as your majesty is an honest man

The above is my offer of a hand outstretched

RJ

?

Mr. Another: Your silence this past week speaks as clearly as your thoughts. This giant we have been walking with has stumbled. I hope those of us, like ants below, will not be crushed.
The resurfacing of Swiss discussion of future sales is no accident. It is the contrary voice of another giant, yes?

UP 1.20. This group is so demaralized and dispirited, no one is paying attention to my posts, so I shout JUNE GOLD IS UP $1.20.

http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=gc%3Dm8&tables=table

Yes. Two more days of Golden Week, Monday and Tuesday Japan time.

Brother Tom,

Give me your idea on Monday close for a gold. Up or Down?

Hear! Hear! Three cheers! Sis boombox! ( gulp ) Rum & Cola & Lime...and what does that spell?...R.E.L.I.E.F! CUBA LIBRE! a usted!

Keep spreadin that real good karma! A very hearty thread thanx.

Paying attention, I just didn't know what the hay you were posting. Excuse my ignorance, nah, that would be impossible, not your ability to excuse, I mean my ignorance.

What the hay is MU?

Yes. June gold now UP .90.

I have no affiliation with the link you posted nor with anybody associated with it. The last time I looked the spurious non-judicial abatement was being promoted there. Avoid it.

Have you officially joined your support to ROR's Socialist Democratic NWO government ?

Rechecked. urls on my 20:05 and 20:21 are correct. It is GCM8 on Comex.

Gulp at ya! One more for insurance, gulp!

Namaste'

Reminds me of tha joke about why some people can't do Rollaids commercials.

Japan closed

I just read your post. You might not know who some of the players are, so here are some examples. Anglo American is controlled by the Oppenhimer family which is the south african equivalent of the rockefellas. Check out that stock ( ANGLY ) it has gone up about 30% in the last 2-3 weeks. Also on the board of directors or the advisory board of barrick gold are, Brian Mulruney ( former PM of canada ) George Bush, Senator Howard Baker, Helmut Kohl ( former head of bundesbank ) and Vernon Jordon. I also believe that Henry Kissenger is on the board of Freeport Macmoran. Go Gold.

My brother and comrade in arms,
I put in a great effort to stop the war.
Please join me. I know how you feel, but
we got a whole bunch of things to forecast..

Give me your vision for a next week, please...
My vodka/pickle test showed that next week
is critical, and I'm worried...slightly...

By the way, sell palladium fast, it's dead.
It will go to $250...$265 within month...
If you do not have any palladium, do not sell...

Disclaimer: Palladium recommendation is
given under influence...

You looking at the message or my typing? Be glad, my typing is better than my writing.

Haven't heard it! Can you remember it well enough to post? Or is it worth it?

The propaganda power revealed in the reports that are posted here on Gold from the wire services is astounding. And all for one purpose: to conceal the fact Gold is money. The presentation of the fact of gold moving from Bank A to Bank B as a gold sale and the blather of A Smith about structural changes like derivatives are bold lies indeed. Was Pravda ever any more brash in spinning out pure prevarications ? The lights may appear to go out altogether in the coming months. If you don't know what you know, you will be spun where they wish you to go.

Are you sure or is that an old figure?

I have a hard time knowing whether that site is live and updating.

HighRise

NJ: KEEP US POSTED!!!!!

Thanks!!!

e.mail-a-joke at donald@uconect.net

Thank You, for the players information.

HighRise

I think I have created an experimental chat room at ICQ 11998901
You may see a message about etiquette, ha, ha, ha!

It will only work as long as I am online. So this is no substitute for Kitco. It's for chatting about food, guns, vodka, poetry etc.

Don't expect me to be a chatty or gracious host.
I will try to keep it open until 23:50 Kitco time.

Try this:

Add ICQ # 11998901 to your contact list.

Click on it and request chat.

It should automatically authorize you to enter.

Have fun!

Oris -

And I will not sell

OK

Death to Tobacco he says. Clinton would be so proud of you. He has worked for several years to demonize the tobacco industry and now sets about to extort it, with ROR's approvial.
A federal Government who ( looks out for the small guy ) is called socialism and it never does what it claims. We're watching it fail all over the world. Why do people not look to themselves for protection.
A Big source of the problems in this Country is the fact that we have 70% of the worlds lawyers. ROR, you watch to much CNN.

NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold dn on Belgian talk

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 1--COMEX Jun gold settled down $4.30 at $303.60 per ounce
after hitting a 1-month low of $302.50. Gold dropped on a report by Futures
World News quoting the Belgian Finance Minister Philippe Maystadt saying
that Belgium will sell more gold reserves in order to reduce debt. However,
just before COMEX gold closed at 1430 ET, Bridge News reported that
Maystadt said that Belgium has no intention of selling more gold.
* * *
Maystadt denied market rumors that Belgium is planning to sell more
gold. He noted that Belgium had in the past sold gold. "But to avoid any
further confusion, I want to make clear that Belgium has no intention of
selling more gold," he said.
Traders said that a lot of the selling activity in gold on the Maystadt
rumor had been fund-driven and also generated by locals on the COMEX floor.
Some traders predicted that gold could rebound after the weekend. "The
denial came out a few minutes from the close and no one had time to get
out, so we'll probably see some buying on Monday," said one trader.
He said that this could be more concentrated than usual on the New York
market, given that both Japan and the UK will be closed for holidays on
Monday.
"Gold definitely went down on that rumor, although there's also some
nervousness in the market about who might be appointed as the head of the
European Central Bank and there are fears that they might not be gold-
friendly," said one trader, referring to the weekend meetings when the ECB
head could be chosen by EU leaders.
However, analyst GNI repeated its view that "the level of gold held by
the ECB is irrelevant for the gold market, what is important is the degree
of autonomy the national central banks have in conducting transactions
without informing the ECB." Any requirement of consensus on European gold
sales could take years to achieve an agreement, GNI said.
Meanwhile, silver was weakened both by the dip in the gold price and by
an announcement Thursday that Kodak would be forming a joint venture with
Intel to develop digital imaging systems. While silver dropped on concerns
some have about the impact a push into this technology could have on silver
halide photography, others suggest that it could take some time for it to
achieve good market penetration.

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: May 03, 1998 @ 8:57 pm ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3043 +7 +0.2 3049 3042 43.2K
SI N8 July Silver 6160 +7 +0.1 6170 6150 17.7K
HG N8 July High Grade Copper 8575 +35 +0.4 8575 8560 6.03K
PL N8 July Platinum 3935 -69 -1.7 3985 3930 1.67K
PA M8 June Palladium 30450 -520 -1.7 30900 30100 402

I had a very small amount of bre-x that I bought when the stock was in deep trouble trying to catch a little bounce. I sold half and got even and let the rest ride down the drain. I still get the bre-x listed on my monthly portfolio report but I am unable to get the certificates sent to me. The are listed as price unavailable. I would like the certificates to frame and hang on the wall.

It is going to fluctuate, what is important though is that POG has opened higher in Asia after so many days of opening down. Let's hope it stays that way for the global trading which ends in NY at 14:30 tomorrow.

Here is cofirmation from HongKong. http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

Gold up a buck.

You stated the Assets of the US exceed the Liabilities.
Prove it.
In fact, if you auctioned all of the property of the federal government and got a good price, you would be unable to retire the existing official debt. I know. I have run the numbers. The unfunded Liabilities exceed the debt by a factor of about three.

Now in your own pocket and account consider that everything there is debt. All of your greenbacks are a liability. And if you paid for your car with debt, you do not really own it. You can fool yourself that gold is not money, but the law is not fooled. Look at your car title. Look at your land deed. No land or vehicles have been owned by private persons since the New Deal. The Manufacturer's Statement of Origin for your car is in the hands of your State Department of Motor vehicles. That is the title of ownership. Your deed is registered at the county clerk's office. That registration makes the State an equitable owner in your land. That is why if you do not pay feudal tribute in tax like a serf for the privilege of being on the land, you will be evicted and the land sold.

All you own is your thong.

Donald, Sam, a lurker from Little Rock and myself just had a brief, but nice chat in the ICQ room that sam put together...wierd, but I likes it.

Date: Sun May 03 1998 21:00
MoReGoLd

Yes, it was another false story used to drive gold through some technical levels. It was released shortly before market close and retracted shortly after market close. Now they hope everyone will forget why gold dropped, but focus on that it did drop. The paper gold players happily jumped on the band wangon trading 5.2 million paper gold ounces on comex. eligible gold remained unchanged at 162,312 ounces. It is a paper game.


New York-May 1-FWN--GOLD FUTURES HAVE FALLEN HERE AFTER
an FWN news story quoted the Belgian finance minister as
saying the National Bank of Belgium will undertake further
sales this year, floor sources reported.
The news caused the June contract to fall below the
previous day's low of $306.50, and stop-loss orders were
triggered, said a floor source. The June contract has fallen
as far as $305.
Belgian Finance Minister Philippe Maystadt said the
sales of gold would be to help the country reduce its
national debt ahead of European economic and monetary union
and would be part of other measures, such as privatization
of state companies.

Closing N.Y. Metals: Lower; Gold Falls on Belgian
Reports



New York-May 1-FWN--NEWS REPORTS OF MORE PROSPECTIVE
gold sales by Belgium's central bank--later denied--drove
gold futures sharply lower in late trade today, floor
sources here said. The move was accelerated by technical
factors as stop-loss orders were hit.
The rest of the precious metals complex also ended
softer, with silver heading lower in sympathy with gold.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium were lower most of
the session as the market begins to anticipate the
resumption of Russian supplies, even though formal talks
between the Russians and Japanese have not begun and a
start-up date of shipments is still unknown.
At least three news services quoted Belgian Finance
Minister Philippe Maystadt as saying the National Bank of
Belgium will undertake further sales of gold this year in
order to reduce its national debt ahead of European economic
and monetary union.
"Everyone started selling on the back of that, and once
we went under $306.50 ( basis June ) , then we saw some stop-
loss selling," one floor source said.
Since those reports, however, Belgium's Ministry of
Finance secretary-general, Gregoire Brouhns, told FWN that
Maystadt was talking about sales earlier this year and not
future gold sales.
A couple of traders cited heavy trade selling, with one
adding that there was also producer and speculative
selling.


Brussels, Belgium-May 1-FWN--BELGIUM IS NOT ENGAGING IN
any new gold sales, Ministry of Finance Secretary-General
Gregoire Brouhns said here today.
Brouhns told FWN that Belgium had made a gold sale
earlier this year and the proceeds of that sale will be used
to reduce Belgium's debt.
Belgium is going to pass a law to obtain permission
from Parliament authorizing the government to use the
profits from the sale toward its debt.
Belgian Finance Minister Philippe Maystadt was
misquoted earlier today about gold sales, according to
Brouhns. Maystadt was talking about the sale earlier this
year by the National Bank of Belgium and not any new sale,
Brouhns said.

I heard that years ago they use to tax your peter ( thong ) according to its size.

I think we have seen that the only paper which has intrinsic value is a bond securitized by the property of a company. The bondholders of the mining companies have first call and only if something is left over do the stockholders have anything tangible for their paper.

Sunday May 3, 9:01 pm Eastern Time

Dollar fails to hold early rally, ECB reappraised


SYDNEY, May 4 ( Reuters ) - The dollar was modestly firmer against the mark in thin early trade Monday but could not sustain an early surge above 1.7900.

It had sped higher initially in a knee-jerk reaction to the weekend's compromise agreement on the European Central Bank governor, which some saw as a blow to the
credibility of the institution which will replace such anti-inflation bastions as the Bundesbank.

But dealers said the dollar quickly ran into selling, with bears arguing the compromise, while far from perfect, had put an end to a damaging row and left Euro preparations
on course.


http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980503/dollar_fai_1.html

I don't think I have the answer and I'm still waiting for some crucial data, but maybe these threads are pertinent. "Backing" "reserves" and convertibility are some considerations. Only backing and reserves have been mentioned so far, re Euro. From what I have seen about Euro, there is nothing better than US$. If anyone sees something better, I would like to know. For some definition of a frame of reference, anything but convertibility is still fiat. I have not seen any clue to convertibility. Backing, reserves or other loose relation to goldis BEYOND the foreseeable future, no better than US$. The jockeying for position in Euroland is akin to Rubin and AG headed up by Clinton, the jawboners.If this thing flies, I will be amazed. To me, backing doesn't mean a damn thing. Convertibility does. The Euro looks like another way to suck in 300 million people to a regime of power over them.
You can't seriously believe gold will crash. Rothschild can't buy GM's cheap if the price is too hi. Baron "Fritz" is not holding 8.8% of Newmont ( or Homestake ) for a tax write off. Rubin is an "expert" financial spinner, so my suspicion is he has a toe hold on the Euro deal. If all of this is true, it's the same as the old Wall St. rule- "You got to get em up to sell and you got to get em down to buy.

Date: Sun May 03 1998 21:12
mozel ( @RJ ) ID#153102:

Thanks for all your intelligent analysis, they are a source of fresh air in a sometimes squalid environment.

I guess you will have to give the Communists credit for honesty.
They just plain tell you...You don;t own it.

Chas -

Now THAT'S an ANSWER!

Yes

It is

Mozel -

Your point being.......... ?

I have no thong I

I skate after florecent thongs

On backsides of beauties

That would put Baywatch to shame

They are out there

Yes

If you sold off the property of the vast majority of Humanity

You would not cover their liabilities

Huh uh

Its your thong
Do what you want to do
I cant tell you
Who to sock it to

Everyone is focusing on the Euro versus the $US. But, if you read the statuatory history of deep dodo that I posted, you know the $US exists only in terms of the IMF.

The BIS issue with gold is its use to guarantee performance in transactions. The only way US$ transactions can be secured with gold is with IMF gold. The US Treasury, if it has any, does not put its gold in the Reserves of the Federal Reserve. As Rubin told Congress IMF cannot sell any gold. It is gold overextended now in all probability. The Euro CB does propose to include gold in its reserves. So, the Euro is a challenge to the whole IMF structure. Look at the currencies that make up the currency basket at IMF for the SDR. How many of those currencies are going away if Euro flies ?

IAMGold has a 38 % stake in the Sadiola Gold mine in Mali.
The proven reserves are 7.1 million .With 70 million shares
outstanding and trading at 5 CAD or 3.50US.Comparatively
Rangy is a super buy.When banks have a stake in the company
it bears watching.

One may put worth in a human's future efforts, yes?

Yes

Buying gold is only half the solution. The notes don't "vote". Exchangeability at the Treasury gives you notes that "vote" on monetary policy. That was the intent of the founders.

are fixed! 1 DM will get you:

Eine D-Mark wird nach den im

Ministerkommunique genannten bilateralen

Leitkursen vom 1. Januar 1999 an wie folgt

gewechselt werden:

Belg./Lux. Franc 20,6255

Spanische Pesete 85,0722

Franzsicher Franc 3,35386

Irisches Pfund 0,402676

Italienische Lira 990,002

Niederlndische Gulden 1,12674

Portugiesischer Escudo 102,505

sterreichischer Schilling 7,03552

Finnische Mark 3,04001

dpa/AFP/Reuters

SZonNet: Alle Rechte vorbehalten - Sddeutscher

want to bank where YOU bank! {:- ) )

Tonight is the one year anniversary of the Bre-X fiasco. It's ironic that the outlook for gold and gold shares is starting to look a little better tonight.

@$304.70 up $1.10

on Friday, but why will it rally on Monday and Tuesday. What economic scenorio would rally gold. Central Banks sales are probably NOT finished and may in fact be squeezed into a pre June window. Asia crisis proved not to be bullish for gold, stock market crash proved not to be bullish for gold, any way the dollar goes is not bullish for gold. WHAT IS BULLISH FOR GOLD!!????

The rally the last few weeks viewed on a weekly chart was a rebound to a previous breakdown point at $320. The market has so many sellers in it that it couldn't even get into the $320 zone.

What scenorio is bullish for gold at these prices.?? I see down, folks. Any rally on Monday will be sold by every short there is out there along with banks and mines. We won't see 308 gold again before we see 70 XAU.

Donald -

We get all the democracy we deserve

Someone said that

Cause I've NEVER been around one that gave diddly
about my "human worth"...
yours in one special dude!

Oris-my take is UP! Caution, last week I thought gold would be down Monday and early Tuesday with an upswing late Tuesday or Wednesday through the week. I believe you could say I missed Thursday and Friday by about $7-$8. Not very good, eh

RJ- no animosity, enjoy you also unless you throw out those dumb bones.

Disney-Looking for some crients now, only a few Jews called. They were buying and so am I-what do I do now?

Tom

Yes, these Notes for Nothing buy gold. And I'm buying something with nothing with as many Notes for Nothing that I can lay my hands on. Prospectively, either the Paper is worth less than nothing or the Gold is worth its weight as jewelry. I'm betting on the gold.

P.S. You also own your other "personal belongings". A hundred years ago people were not insolvent and they owned their land and appurtances. Now, you say they are insolvent and I say they have no absolute, clear title to their land. What happened ?

You bet it's manipulation. How can a finance minister be so misquoted,
speaking about an old event, then the paper turning it around stating that it will be a future event?
The Gold market then takes it as fact and plummets.
I mean give me a break.....
This market has really reached the pinnacle of absurdity........

jims said; "I see down, folks. Any rally on Monday will be sold by every short there is out there along with banks and mines."

I'm really impressed you are on such intimate terms with "banks and mines" to say with such certain conviction that you know what their moves will be on Monday - in addition to know what "every short out there will do." Gads-Gazooks!

Bearish Sell signals:
1. adv/decline line has diverged form major ave
2. TRAN and UTIL have diverged form SPX and INDU
3. NASCRAP appears to be putting in a head and shoulders
4. Internet stocks continue to explode everyday ( these trash stocks are a sign of rampant specualtion. MM can't find real value in the mkt so they are throwing money at hopes and dreams )
5. Bull/Bear ratio still firmly in camp of Bull
6. Gold has turned around and unptrend is intact ( notice it was down on Fri because of a false rumor that Belgium would be selling gold. Belgium came out after thee close and said "Nope, untrue." Compare the XAU and TYX, they look VERY similar. XAU is leading.
7. TYX appears to be heading up. Don't be fooled by Thurs & Fri's slight pullback below 6%, notice we closed up near the open on Fri back near the high of the day... a strong reversal signal.
8. $ continues to get pounded by Mark as EURO approaches. Japs are defending Yen and will continue to pump it up. Money will flow out of US as dollar declines.
9. 60% of US households are invested in the stock mkt..... the most in HISTORY.
10. Mutual fund cash levels are at a 10 yr low http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/cmfcash.htm
11. stock mkt is everywhere. I have noticed over the past yr more and more mutual fund, and brokerage commercials on mainstream TV, radio and print. There was even an article in Rolling Stone about the "roaring mkt"
12. earnings yr-over-yr are declining
13. the leaders are breaking down.... BKX ( looks ot be putting in a head and shoulders ) NASCRAP is topping off. KO and G have both broken down
14. Insider selling has increased to a record pace over the past 3 months. G insiders have been dumping stock right and left.
15. Signs of inflation: wage protests detailed in newspaper recently as workers complain about CEO's stock options and their low wages, real estate mkt is on fire. building has picked up markedly everywhere, I think you all know about the increase in oil prices that is coming, nat gas prices are up, food prices will be increasing cause of El Nino, gen asset inflation of stock mkt and real estate. IMO, Fed would have acted long ago but was afraid of collapsing the mkt, now they can't do anything as the mkt runs out of control or they will be blamed for the ensuing disaster. I think their just hoping it will correct itself and not implode, hence the article in WS urinal
16. X-chge seats peaked about 2 mnths ago and have been trending down.
17. oils are always the last stocks to move in an aging Bull ( we're seeing that now )
18. no need to discuss P/E levels at all-time highs and div yields at all-time lows
19. Now for the touchy-feely stuff:
a. bull on the cover of newsweek
b. bull on the cover of Barrons this weekend
c. AFC won the superbowl
d. hemlines came down this yr
e. CNBC's ratings have exploded over the past 6 months.
f. CNBC is now being shown in Times Square on
the Sony big screen
g. man friends of mine ( against my advise ) have taken out home
equity loans over the past 3 months to put it in the mkt.
h. Bill clinton commented on Thurs that "his opponents can't
compete w/ his ideas, afterall look what we have... roaring
economy and a roaring stock market."
i Elaine Garzarelli cam out Fri and is extremely bullish
( contrary indicator ) and made arguments for a mkt rise that
I've read about economists making about why the mkt could
go to even more lofty levels before the 1929 crash
j. Bull mkt tops are made at the height of euphoria when all anyone sees is up and good things for the future ( kinda where we are, notice that every analyst is looking ofr around 10,000 this yr, and then higher later. NOBODY sees any problems. Valuation is rationalized away like I used to do when I was a kid explaining to my dad why I spray-painted a wall in the house.... "it needed color, dad. I didn't mean to. If you look up you can't see it."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Your concise listing of the many reasons why this mania will end in disaster before long is a classic.
One other factor setting us up for the mother of all bears is the facile assumption by many professionals that they will be able to ride the mania up to the top and get out just before it all collapses. The market will find a way to take the vast majority of such players down for the count. My guess is that liquidity will dry up almost immediately when the turn comes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
think you might have left out how much of the world still hasn't fixed their year2000 problems.. ( most programmers are scared )
add panic besides current diversion of money now by corporations
and governments to start fixing it..some bigshot analyst might
come out anyday with saying the impact on earnings..
fantastic list..
also very tired so may have missed it..but another severe correction in the Asian markets which would probably affect our markets..
ps..did you check about Homestake in barrons this week..the accumulation by a German who had accumulated so much he had to report
it
The current spin on the national broadcast news concerning the EMU is positive and there is speculation that in the future the Euro may compete with the dollar. I think the future is already here in that respect. So far no bombshells from the EMU meeting which bodes well for gold. I have seen news on this thread which indicated that Duisenburg is pro-gold. With the French candidate Trichet waiting in the wings who is also pro-gold, I am pleased with the results.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lateness has piled up on me. I'm going to follow your threads for more definition. Check with you tomorrow. Thanx Charlie

http://www.forbes.com/asp/redir.asp?/tool/html/98/may/0501/side1.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Y2K Survivalists
http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/98/may/0501/feat.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What, me worry?
http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/98/may/0501/side2.htm

Hmmm...this market seems to be so weak as to be a market that is "as before" rather than "Not as before". If a rumor, and a supposedly innaccurately stated one at that, can have this strong a negative impact on POG, than one must aknowledge some SERIOUS weakness in POG's strength , YES?

( PS, this comment intended to add to the negative/bearish Kitco Farfel indicator thus helping to drive POG way UP....due to the incredible bullishness of said Bear comment indicator...... )

1-What if the Germans have mathematical types...like accountants?

2-What if German government has a copy of the USGs budget and asked the mathematical types to read it?

3-What if they didnt believe it?

4-When you peers no longer trust you, whats the next step?

1-They do. 2-They have. 3-They didn't. 4-Watch and see.

You sure know how to throw a party! {:- ) )

If FDR had come right out and said, "I'm stealing your gold; I'm making you a tenant of the government on your land, I'm taking title to your car in return for license plates, I'm indebting you and your children to pay perpetual interest on permament, ever increasing debt, I'm starting a social insurance scheme that is a ponzi designed to defraud and cheat and break covenants, I'm putting a banking system in place to track all your transactions, and I am suborning your State Governments to treason to the Constitution... do you think there would have been armed resistance to the demoncratic socialist revolution ?

What happened?

I don't know

Maybe we grew up

Mozel -

Lest we be at each other's throats

I do agree entirely with your 22:09

And the answer is

Yes

Power of the press is amazing. When an 18 yr old is victimized, he is an 18yr old boy & when he is the accused, he becomes an 18 yr old man.
Rather simplified but reality. We are easily manipulated. Perhaps certain
Kitco posters are good examples of same.
Sharefin-In response to C.B. weather. Raining hard or perhaps, hardly
raining. Fillin' in the Ted void or a week attempt thereof.

Did you say, "Dem Bones"?

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Riiiibbbbss..

AwaytojaccuzziandwatchtheSimpsons

OKAY!

thursday friday the last 30 min.s big slide,kinda like the boxer getting in some good flurries right before the bell to impress the judges,I think that option sellers obviously are trying to drive the price lower since friday is experation day now probabaly not tommorow but before friday I would think these low low prices will atract buyers,so should be interesting week with bulls taking some comfort in the fact that volitivity goes both ways,I just can't imagine produceres selling while on the brink of a major up move but I got a rough est, of 100.dollar mave in gold since the first of the year,only up and down so there is a lot of room for making money in the gold market going both ways,andd so I guess it will be for a time~~~~~~~~~~whew the brew is talking! yes

DigDeep,
So you are interested in momentoes of that great fiasco! I was able to order share certificates ( which are hanging on the wall ) by calling the transfer agent DIRECTLY in Calgary ( I think it was Montreal Trust ) but your broker can fill you in on the exact name of the transfer agent. The transfer agents are the ones who actually issue the share certificates. Assure them that you will pay for the certificates ( apparently they were afraid of being stiffed ) and hopefully they will send them to you for a reasonable fee. Good luck.

MofromTo

FWIW The price action of silver,the next 2 weeks,the top will determine
the bull's health.The next turning point third week of August will
have to be higher than the fourth week of March.

Yes, I should have been more specific - any short and potential seller with any sense will sell on a rally Monday and Tuesday to the extent that they haven't completed their job on Friday. The complete failure of the market on first the Portugese minister then the Belgium miniter's comments speaks volumns for the technical soundness of the former bull rally.

I still await a scenorio that is bullish for gold....

If it was boring and dead there would be steady decline. Big bucks are jumping in and out. Too much money in gold for it to fade to nothing.What did sales amount to on Thur. and Friday for gold to drop as it did? If that was the big paper drop we all suspect soon,the bottom would be much further. That gold stuff is awesome. I'm long and holding on. Ridem Cowboy!Oh ... like who could afford to go out and buy Microsoft and Intel and et a al at times like these? Oh that K-tel one ought to be good. If I was Bill Gates I'd retire and sell. Lets hope on Monday for a return to 307 at least. G'night.

RJ Please contact me. dpdickins@aol.com

Re: our little 'difference of opinion' on the future direction of gold after a close below Friday's lows.

I believe your skin is thick enough to handle a bit of colourful language.

I do enjoy your sporadic visits to Kitco and I respect your trading acumen. Saves us having to go to other sites to get your views. I disagree with you that with new lows we will see $250 gold. IMHO--this will never happen in my lifetime--and I hope to live a few more decades.

As to lack of evidence. You may recall that I posted a chart to back up my assertions. I do not believe I saw any evidence to back up yours.

I also enjoy your political repartee, even if it does make Attila the Hun look like a candy striper in comparison ( remember that thick skin ) {{:- ) ) .

Keep visiting. We welcome your posts.

You asked what to do. Sell to them of course?!Whats the question there?

I have laughed much to hard today in reading and posting. I must engage in slumber. Locate ANOTHER windmill for me. I shall return! Does this mean I have to wade in water up to my @ss.

R/S- sense of humor is good!

Nite, nite.

Tom

There hasn't been a revolution under Klintone yet, so why would one think it was possible under FDR? Oh, I forgot: there used to be an opposition party and an honest press.

To all:

I saw some discussion here tonight about the Elliott Wave theory and the POG. In Toronto a couple of weeks ago, Peter Rhemer said he thought gold would go to $200 per ounce.
When Dennis Wheeler took the stage, the first thing he said was: "If anyone ever tells you gold is going to $200, just kick him in the shins and walk on." It was quite a moment.
As far as I can tell, the EW guys still think gold is heading much farther down.

The Preacher

Ur ipso facto type statements r always driven' towards Another when he
is offline. I see a dual LGB when he is online. With all respect,
I sincerely hope ur personal circumstance is seeing light. What's ur
financial advice for the A.M.?????

To all:
I'm on a short vacation in Sarasota, FL right now and have just been checking in periodically. I don't think it's time for panic.
The daily chart on the CEF looks bad. It left an unfilled gap a few weeks ago that could not be filled on the last gold runup. CEF is weak.
OTOH, the U.S dollar index is not bouncing off its 200-day MA this time. It looks ready to break through to the downside, but has not done so yet. If it does, I think this will be bullish for gold.
Gold has retraced about 50% of its runup from $288 to $316. I would like to see a more orderly retracement where the stochastics on the weekly chart have time to fall to mid-range or below. But gold is in no trouble at this time.
Remember, by surmounting $314, the trigger to the Sept '97 high of $338.50 has been triggered. And by making a high above the Jan. high, the uptrend remains intact. I will be very surprised if gold falls to a new low at this point.

More tomorrow.

The Preacher

just picked this out, I listened to an interview one night, that rang big bells in my head ( no teasing now, I know I'm already 'dingy' ) This guy was asked what he thought about this 'Y2k thing'. and I was really struck by his answer. First of all this fellow ( and I am truly sorry I have forgotten his name ) has been on before talking about 'the future', which turns me off real quick, you know, weather, and earthquakes and stuff. But I heard a caller say one time, 'well, this guy sure has been on the money', and the host agreed. so when he came on again I decided to listen closer. First words out of his mouth were 'THEY DON'T WANT Y2k TO BE FIXED'.....Whoa, what does that mean? then he says, 'what better way for them to fix all of THEIR problems with US, than by letting the present system fall apart?' Well, that hit like a truck, and I think this fellow is right. Fix SS?.....let it die, start a new one.....register our weapons?.......get everyone in a turmoil, then protect us from ourselves!....budget problems?....what budget? Graft, greed and corruption?......where, all you would haer about is need, need, need. I think we are being led down the path of destruction on purpose. It fits everything I have ever known about this government of ours. I wouldn't believe a word out of their mouths when they talk about 'fixing' the Y2k problem, or anything else.

Get ready to shell out $20,250.00 per contract margin! The equivalent of about 10 contracts of gold!

Frage! Anyone out there have an opinion on Kaplan's view at Gold Mining Digest that the new ROTH IRA is a government scheme to rake in a ton of retirement money THIS YEAR and NEXT BEFORE the stock market tanks and takes all those profits with it? What about his view that anyone converting their regular IRA to a ROTH IRA may NEVER get back to even once the stock market tanks and should consider keeping their regular IRA and saving the taxes on a ROTH?

You must admit wading in water @sshole deep lends a certain sense of style!

Antwort. Why would anyone want to pay tax earlier rather than later on a government captive plan?

Look at them Grains tonight!!!

My broker advised me not to buy stocks of gold producing companies.Gold was in a downward price spiral and--she insisted--- gold shares did not hold up well in this or that bear market when gold had done this or that.All the while I'm thinking that Barrick and Pdg and Newmont had gotten killed in the sell off and would surely rebound if the price of gold would rally .

Ah,the price of gold.It was too cheap! I had not even looked at the price of gold in months ; but I knew any price below 300 was too cheap.I knew it!

My broker calmy told me to buy the physical and leave gold stocks alone.She remembered very well the gold bull of the late seventies and the early eighties and if I wanted a hedge against the unknown and thought gold could be the answer: buy the physical.

Well,we are already in an equities bull --- the mother of all bulls yet.Equities are valued beyond belief . Gold is not. Everytime gold inches upward, the xau has been pushed foreward;not pulled.I decided then to invest in gold stocks and not gold .Equities are all the rage.
We need a new reasonable xau/au ratio.Things are different this time.Old
time logic is crude and irrelevant.Stop telling me valuations of the xau/au are out of whack.You're scaring the shi-t out of me.

Thanks in advance. ptwoskool

I don't have palladium either...
Why do I hate it so much that I want
everybody to sell it..? I do not know...
Anyway, I'm in the mood to sell something...

Put these two together: how would it feel to pay the tax on your IRA, roll it over into a Roth, then 1 year later the IRS goes up in flames and we shift to a National Sales Tax! AAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGhhhhhhhhhhhh!

SDR
Thanks you're welcome to join.

Thanks also to
Mtn Bear - Winston
:for that data
I have a copy off the net of Yourdans book and found the reference on shipping.
No Ships = No Oil = CHAOS

Caper
for the CB weather outlook

What Bull Shit. FDR and Depression. FDR was bought and paid for by the USofA Corporations. Get real, get the facts.

Your selection of history is perverted truth. Your spin of history suggests no direction for solutions. Are you for or against "We the People". Are you for liberty and freedom for all, or is that a "liberal term" maybe a commie phrase. The founding fathers of the USofA constitution were property owners, therefore, it must be a commie term eh!

You use the word "Property". What of the 'We The people' property rights, to withhold labour power. Maybe labour is not a property right eh!

You do command a very powerful gift of the language, but you waste your skills by destroying constructive debate. Property, is greater than the ability to hold property in hand, or by the use of force. Obviously, you are trained in the art of double speak, and very good at your craft.

Yes, I do not accept your support of "The Powers To Be". The corporations that you support have stollen the dreams of a free nation. These corporations have been using the very same skills that you use, Words and Law. God and Country, Liberty and freedom. Their's and your usage of these words, have killed millions, and destroyed dreams and hope.

All that do not agree, or dispute corporations, are tagged as commie, Liberal, etc etc. Smoke and mirrors, used with the utmost skill, by well trained, and dutiful groups and individuals.

Demonize, the subject of those that oppose your property rights line of bull shit. Explain why the rights of "We The People" were terminated in the depression, whey the crimminal's on wall street and the Federal Reserve were not put in jail ? Why wasn't the army called out against these criminals ? The army is only paid to protect property rights eh!

When the cold war ended, Cut backs, and job terminations, on cold war opportunists, was a tough blow on those that served the corporations.

FWIW... from the other side of the issue...Take Care

P.s. Don't forget the corncob pipe and aviator sunglasses? Sense of humor works most of the time.

STUDIO.R Wrote:

"Monday morning the markets may masticate the methodologies of the monetary ministers of mainland Europe."

No comment

I just liked the sentence.

Yes

Probably to avoid ever having to pay taxes on it ever again after a 5-yr. hold. Or perhaps, because taz rates may be much higher in the future than they are now? You tell me!

Oris -

Sell Russian Blondes.

I know where there is a market

I did. But if you don't mind double commissions and a tax of up to 20% as disincentives, be my guest.

Euromnzen aus Fayence ( VAR )
18.Juli bis 18.August 1997
Empfohlen vom Euro-Institut
Fayence-Patrimoine

Fayence-Patrimoine ist nach dem Gesetz aus dem Jahre 1901 gegrndet worden mit dem Ziel, das einheimische Erbgut zu bewahren. Diese Vereinigung hat die Prgung der vorlufigen Euromnzen mit der Abbildung von Fayence veranlasst, die vom 18.Juli bis 18.August 1997 in Umlauf gebracht werden.

So, big doings Jul-Aug 1997 in Fayence, with a special issue Fayence coin and introducing the Euro Coin Family
1-- a 20 Euro silber ( 925/1000 )
2--and a 22K 500 Euro GOLD.

Now, not everyone is going to wander around with a 500 Euro gold coin ( except the folks on Kitco, of course ) , but it is starting to look as if they mean to have a gold ( at least one ) and a silver ( and least one ) in their coin issue!
500 Euro 22K ( summer 1997 ) 3.400FF
20 Euro Silver ( summer 1997 ) 150 FF

There is an Visa/MC order form, but one had to pre-order [i.e. before summer 97] so back to the mint {:- ) )

http://www.sateim.com/pays-de-fayence/patrimoine-euro-de.html

Now, in addition to the rather marvelous price premium, there is the happy thought they mean to USE the coins! WOW...

Good old Jewish anecdote from Russia:
-------------------------------------
Russian antisemitic newspaper published:
" Bloody Jews sold Mother Russia!!!"

So, Rabinovich calls newspaper:
"Pardon me, this is Rabinovich speaking...
Is this true that Jews sold Russia?"

Angry voice on the other end of the line:

"Yes, you bloody you,.....,...., it's true!!!"

Rabinovich says: "Excuse me, in this case could
you please tell me where I can get my share...."

The full weight of the New Deal fell on business. The corporations just became part of the Corporate Socialist State. Private merchants are not temperamentally or otherwise equipped for armed resistance. Individual business people fought socialism in the courts and, in put-up cases, were defeated. If you actually read those decisions, there was more left undecided than decided. To this day, to the best of my knowledge, there has never been a decision on the constitutionality of the employee portion of social security. The Supreme Court is fully aware that the Constitution is in some kind of suspended state due to the bankruptcy of the federal government. In Ashwander vs TVA they laid down rules for the purpose of preventing as much as possible any constitutional rulings whatsoever in the present state of things.

The government put up a pretense that the Greenbacks issued during the Bank Holiday were backed by gold and would one day be redeemable for gold. But people are noticing and starting to question more and more. It's not a story you will see in the media, however.

I converted half of my regular IRA's to ROTH conversion IRA's because ALL of my IRA's are in gold and gold funds which had taken major hits and were trading at levels I don't ever expect to see again. Since the tax is spread out over the next four years, it seemed a wise and timely thing to do for the privilege of unlimited non-taxable gains for life. Imagine the taxable gain on $30,000.00 gold several years hence! : )

I couldn't agree more. the First or Second US Republic died in 1933-35. Long live the Ninth Republic!

Will someone have to set up and host the K B&G each day/night? Does it disappear after midnight or as soon as the host leaves or turns his computer off? Does anyone have the answers to these mind boggling questions....*enjoyed it, sam, donald, promey, sharefin, little rock lurker....it's a gas, gas, gas...we talked about Miles Davis, Thelonious Monk, Ry Cooder, Lightnin' Hopkins and GOLD!!!! Yello too. and old gold coins...

You give new meaning to the phrase "averaging down". I truly wish you nothing but the very best.

Frankly, I do not think that is at all farfetched. My country is
deeply appreciative of 'victims' and politicians would LOVE the
role ( and give Academy Award performances ) . They dislike technical
people anyway ( they're way too "A" is "A" ) so the whole thing plays
really well--as far as they concerned. {:- ( (

It's not possible, nobody has this kind of money...

French arrogance and German and British weakness have
produced a grotesque and costly surrender

All Europe will pay for this folly
The cowardly compromise over the presidency of the
European Central Bank is a scandal, a disgrace and a
disaster. It is a scandal because it shows that nothing, but
nothing, really counts in the European Union except the
crude assertion of national will.

It is contrary to the Treaty of Maastricht, which provided
that the president of the bank would serve an eight-year
term, precisely in order to protect its independence. It
demonstrates, even before the bank has come into
existence, that it will not be politically independent; it has
politicised the bank from the beginning. It shows that
France, against the treaty and against the will of all her
European partners, is prepared to impose a unilateral
French decision. France will pay for that.

It also shows the weakness, weakness, weakness of
successive British governments. How badly we continue
to play the European game, repeatedly appeasing forces
that are hostile to our view of the world. The Prime
Minister was actually in the chair when the grotesque
surrender of giving Wim Duisenberg, the Dutch candidate,
only half a term and France the other half, was accepted.

This was a French invasion of the independence of the
bank. Tony Blair should have fought it to the end. What
he has actually agreed to is every bit as feeble as the
"compromise" when John Major vetoed the appointment
of Jean-Luc Dehaene, the Belgium Euro-federalist Prime
Minister, as president of the commission, only to agree to
the appointment of Jacques Santer, the equally
Euro-federalist Prime Minister of Luxembourg. It is as
though General Wolfe, on the Heights of Abraham, had
given the order: "Don't run away until you see the whites
of their eyes."

Britain does not matter in Europe, or does not matter
much. Germany matters a great deal. The Maastricht
Treaty sandbagged the mark to give France greater
power over the European currency system. Helmut Kohl
has always promised the German people the euro would
be as good as the mark. He has comprehensively and
totally failed to meet that promise; he will pay the price for
that. So will Germany.

Germany has allowed 11 European nations, including
Belgium and Italy which have debts far outside the
Maastricht criteria, to join the single currency on the first
round. Some of these nations have had weak currencies
for most of the 20th century. The Germans have sacrificed
their strong currency and their strong central bank for a
currency based on much weaker economies and for a
politicised central bank. When faced with the arrogance
and obstinacy of President Chirac, Chancellor Kohl had
given in.

This will be electorally important. The Germans have
never tolerated weakness in their leaders; Herr Kohl has
survived so long because he was more than a bit of a
bully, and was seen to force his projects through against
any opposition. Now the bully has been bullied, and by his
French ally, on whom for more than a decade he has
based his European policy.

Perhaps Tony Blair, with his high popularity, will suffer
little from a European defeat - he is not the first British
Prime Minister to be defeated in Brussels. Chancellor
Kohl is already far behind Gerhard Schrder and the SPD
in the polls and faces a federal election in the autumn. He
cannot afford this humiliation.

It was already probable that the CDU would be defeated.
The recent elections in Saxony-Anhalt were disastrous for
them, partly because of East German resentment at the
loss of the mark. Now there is no defence. Herr Schrder
is beginning to look in almost as strong a position as was
Tony Blair six months before the 1997 election. The result
for the CDU could be catastrophic. An old, weakened
and ineffective Chancellor, who has been in power too
long, has presided over the highest postwar
unemployment and has destroyed his nation's proudest
asset, cannot afford to be stabbed in the back by his
closest ally. Et tu, Chirac.

Yet as usual with him, it is Chirac who has made the
stupidest blunder. His Europe makes no sense at all. The
balance of power in Europe is not one in which France
can sustain this grotesque pseudo-Napoleonic role; at
best, Chirac is Napoleonic not in the sense of Bonaparte
but of Napoleon III. He is not "le bulldozer", as the
French used to call him, but a bullfrog puffing himself up
as the master of the farmyard.

After this Brussels meeting every country in the EU owes
France a black eye. For the first time in his premiership,
Tony Blair has been made to look weak and ineffective.
He will not relish that. The Dutch, who are the most useful
nation in Europe, have been deprived of their prize. The
bank has been politicised before it begins.

France will pay for these resentments, for France is not
the dominating European power of the 17th or 18th
centuries, but is secondary to the strength of Germany.
Bismarck in 1870 settled the relative power ranking of
France and Germany, and nothing has happened to
change that since.

France will need to watch Germany. Gerhard Schrder,
who is close to Tony Blair both personally and in policies,
will in all probability be the next Chancellor of Germany.
He has become convinced that it is now too late to save
the mark; that is a correct judgment. Until he came to that
conclusion he was remarkable sceptical about the single
currency. He will come to power, possibly with a large
majority, partly because the CDU has exchanged a strong
mark for a politicised euro. He will have drawn his own
conclusions from the arrogance of French policy, and the
French determination to seize control of the finances of
Europe. He will have seen Chancellor Kohl humiliated in
Brussels, and will himself have benefited from the
resentment that will cause in Germany.

Politics is politics, though President Chirac is not sensitive
to political equations. Gerhard Schrder is a
tough-minded, modern political leader who wil come to
power with a mandate to re-balance the Franco-German
equation in Germany's favour. He will not have much
choice about that. The growing German Right will be the
beneficiaries if he proves to be too soft on France. He will
have been elected because of the failure of Kohl's policy.
He will need to appear strong in front of the German
people.

In politics, as in physics, each action produces an equal
and contrary reaction. Gerhard Schrder will be the
contrary reaction, but he will not merely be equal.
Germany is far stronger than France, and most of the
countries of the European Union are on Germany's side.

Damage has been done all round, to the idea of central
bank independence, to confidence in the euro, to
economic and monetary union, to Europe as a society of
equals, to European democracy, to Dutch pride, to
Britain, to Germany, but most of all to France. What
happened in the early hours of yesterday morning was an
assertion by the French government that France is
Europe.

When Bismark was alive, Germany appeared on the maps
of Europe as "the Prussian Empire". Chirac seems to be
trying to turn the European Union into "the French
Empire". There is a French phrase for President Chirac's
policy over the Presidency of the Central Bank. It is "folie
de grandeur".

But every kitcoite needs to get the ICQ deal happenin'...it's pretty cool.....think fast....type like an idiot....say stupid things ( no second chance ) .....and promey types fast as the wind...UNFAIR! g'nite.

I may be interested

Does she have a thong?

= extra value

Uh Huh

...and I have no problem in praising your virtues: you write very well and have a compelling intellect. Above and beyond everything else, you spin extremely well and I imagine it serves you well. I expect you are quite successful in your profession.

However, I submit that the differences between us are not simply differences of interpretation or ideology. You remind me of various fellas I knew back at Yale. Extremely bright guys whose precocious intellects were nothing less than astounding. The only problem with most over-developed intellects is they often suffer from underdevelopment of the heart. It seems you cannot have one without the other. You know how I know? Because I have suffered from Intellectual Bastard Syndrome for most of my life. Only in the last several years -- after meeting the sweetest Angel God placed upon this planet -- have I strenuously worked upon developing the retarded emotional side of my being. I think I have made much progress...although I do have my lapses and it is a continuous struggle, when a person has been 90% brain all his life, to be humane.

RJ, when I look at the immense power of today's Media Machine and Big Government, I often wonder whether or not Gold will ever regain its former shine. It is obviously a genuine enemy of the powerful forces on Wall Street. Certainly, for the past two years, Wall Street has repeatedly defeated this enemy. The Great Wall Street Bull is, at this point, an exceptionally greedy, gluttonous, powerful monster. Back in the early Nineties, I once had sympathy for the defeated, faltering animal. But, today, who can empathize with this ravenous, inhumane Beast? ( Yes, I say inhumane...because what other animal exalts and cheers at the tears and anguish of hundred of thousands of workers thrown monthly onto the streets? )

For a society to be healthy, I believe there must be a swinging pendulum. Unfortunately, the pendulum is stuck in one position today...an unparalled focus on profit above quality of life...the veneration of Wall Street priorities above everything else. Analogously, on a macro level, for our world to be healthy, there must be greater equity. Here, too, the pendulum is stuck in one position, with America consuming all and bullying all.

RJ, my point is this: ironically, in our upside-down world of today, the gold investor class has come to represent the underdogs of our society...even of the entire world. When a particular group have been beaten down so long, it tends to develop more acute sensitivities to the misfortunes of others. Conversely, the Wall Street victors have developed tremendous emotional calluses to those not so fortunate.

In a previous post I wrote to you, I suggested that you should spend more time examining your heart. No doubt you have intellect in spades. I think it is a crying shame that you do not use your compelling intellect to benefit the underdog. After all, do you not think it is a much more interesting "intellectual" challenge and emotionally satisfying reward to benefit the underdog ( as opposed to riding upon the mainstream bandwagon as it rolls across the dying body of the underdog ) ?

It seems to me you have already done extraordinarily well in your platinum and palladium adventures. Have you not satiated your material appetites yet? If so, then how is your heart feeling? If it is not feeling so great, then you might well consider championing the underdog for a while? The victories -- when they come -- feel so much more intense and satisfying.

In conclusion, you asked me why I have not contacted you in the past. The reason is quite simple: you have not become the type of person I want to be involved with...yet. I gather you are younger than me...and I sense you are on your way there. When you "get there," then no doubt, we could be the best of friends.

Good luck on your various thong pursuits ( but IMHO, try and find yourself one special thong ) .

Thanks

F*

London Times 5/4/98


THE pound is expected to soar in unusual Bank Holiday
trading today, bringing a new threat of recession to the
manufacturing industry after the weekend's messy
compromise over who should lead the new Central
European Bank.

The rest of Europe faces the prospect of a concerted rise in
interest rates as central bankers move to restore the
credibility of the single currency project.

Hundreds of extra dealers have been drafted in for holiday
trading in the City to handle possible pressure on the euro
currencies and demand for sterling. Volatile and nervous
markets are expected as traders try to make sense of the
weekend's events.

The economics community had looked on with incredulity at
the Brussels summit where horsetrading, personality and
national ego overshadowed what should have been a public
relations triumph with the launch of the euro.

After eleven hours of wrangling between France and
Germany, a midnight deal led to Wim Duisenberg of The
Netherlands being hamed as the first president of the
European Central Bank. Under the terms of the Maastricht
treaty he must be appointed for eight years, to ensure the
bank's political independence - but he immediately promised
to step down after four in favour of Jean-Claude Trichet,
governor of the Banque de France.

Tony Blair, who chaired the summit, President Chirac,
Chancellor Kohl and Wim Kok, the Dutch Prime Minister,
all claimed to be satisfied with the deal. But it was greeted
with contempt by the European Parliament, opposition
politicians and commentators across the Community. MEPs
threatened a legal challenge, while some EU members
accused Mr Blair of mishandling the clash. Viktor Klima, the
Austrian Chancellor, said the day had been an exercise in
"how not to organise a summit".

The solution, which involved Mr Duisenberg reading out a
statement of his intention to retire "for personal reasons" in
2002, brought guffaws from the 2,000 journalists who had
waited for the summit to stagger through Saturday night.

But Mr Blair insisted that there had been no "fudge or fix".
The delicate compromise was "a very, very significant gain,
maintaining entirely the sanctity of the treaty". Herr Kohl,
who is fighting an uphill battle for re-election, said: "Whether
you like it or not, this is an historic day. It's done. The euro is
here."

His opponents at home, however, accused him of caving in
to the French while in London, William Hague complained of
a "fistful of fudges" and said that economic fundamentals had
been ignored.

Jos-Mara Gil-Robles, the European Parliament President,
talked about the "birth of a deformed baby", and Pauline
Green, socialist leader in the Parliament, said that she would
seek a legal ruling today on whether the compromise
complied with the Maastricht treaty. She accused ministers
of "unacceptable shenanigans" and said: "If what they have
done ends up weakening the euro then that is their
responsibility."

Economists across Europe were equally vocal in their
dismay. "Short of taking a full-page ad in The Times, their
displeasure couldn't have been clearer," Julian Jessop, chief
European economist at Nikko Europe, said. "If the markets
react badly, the Bundesbank will take the earliest possible
opportunity to restore credibility and raise interest rates."

Richard Reid, of SBC Warburg Dillon Read, thought the
Bundesbank would push for a co-ordinated interest rate rise
within weeks: "The central bankers are going to be saying 'It
is up to us now; we have got to show we are in command'.
Europe's problems are about to begin."

Other analysts predicted that the currency markets would
punish the politicians' ineptitude by selling the mark and its
euro-satellites. That could send the pound soaring again.

For months, British exporters had looked on helplessly as
sterling soared to its highest levels for nine years - largely
because of uncertainty about the single currency. Investors
had bought the pound as a "safe haven", but the buying
started to dry up amid optimism about the summit and last
week the pound was quoted at DM2.9640, its lowest level
for two months.

However, with the weekend's events confirming many of the
market's suspicions about the euro, City economists are
predicting that sterling could once again hit DM3, virtually
guaranteeing that British manufacturing will slump into
recession.

The first political test of the deal will come on Thursday
when the European Parliament opens what is is depicting as
an American Senate-style hearing on Mr Duisenberg and his
board. Although the Parliament has no veto over the
appointments, its opinion will influence the credibility of the
project.

Will pay with 80 year old platinum with pictures of the Czar stamped on them

OK?

Nick: I can take it. I just dont like to have a serious post referred to as bullshit. If gold closes below Friday's low, the rally from Jan has been a rally in a bear market. I do not choose to be long in a bear market. Experience has taught me that being long in a bear or short in a bull is not conducive to financial health. Gone beddy-bye. See you next weekend.

There have been two revolutions of this Constitution from the top: One by Lincoln and the Reconstruction Congresses and the second by FDR and the New Deal Congresses. In the meantime, the attorneys have made government and the law mostly a private preserve for the benefit of themselves and their well heeled clients, the corporations. They have overlaid the common-law with a layer of political law. But, nothing has really died. It's analagous to an archaeological site perhaps, where under every layer of the debris from a new city, is the foundations of the previous.

Are you interested as a commodity broker or else?

yes the gold backing seems desirable and when usa hits tough times again ( cycle ) , they could move into preferred currency status which we now occupy. also what scares me is that we will have a formidable competitor for bonds, particularly, our treasuries. oh watch out,. between that and the japanese repatriation of their bucks in the future, we could, in the distant future be in a major world of hurt. Hope i'm wrong!

Mutual fund cash was last reported as 4.7% of assets, the lowest percentage since 1976.----I thought most of these had in their prospectuses that they were required to keep 5% cash......been a long time since I looked at one. Times have changed. : )

Which of course insures that if we ever do have a crash the entire banking system will come down with it. No matter though, the taxpayer always bails these big bankers out. They will only profit and become stronger in the long run. The risk isn't theirs; it is the tax payer's.

KTEL news, truly frightening
KTEL has announced a stock split BTW, how many stocks in the history of commerce have announced a stock split two weeks after they were a seven-dollar stock
the only thing creepier than that is that somebody is touting them up to $100...I'm gonna have nightmares tonite from reading that stuff
Kind of sounds like the shenanigans that went on in the roaring 20's huh???
the tortured explanation for why that is reasonable is a real exercise in new-paradigm thinking...man there are phrases in that article that I have never heard applied to any stock any time anywhere

post-Reagan relief, people have secure jobs and careers, low-interest mortgages on cars and houses, ipso facto plenty of extra cash...no need to plan for that big layoff any more...have I mentioned that I am a junior member of the Left Wing Conspiracy, we try to remind people about 15% home mortages and 12% unemployment in the bad old days

post Reagan = post Reagan/Bush...the recession in 90-91 was within an order of magnitude as bad as 81-82

college seniors calling up headhunters for jobs back in 82 didn't even make it past the secretary, now headhunters fly 'em across the country
I just can't see a rush for the exit by Ma & Pa
sort of like indonesia, huh?
not until the company debt exceeds assets by a factor of six to one or something like that

when CNBC starts interviewing 9-year-old stock pickers and the Motley Fools ( complete with jingly-bell Fool hats ) again, then I'll start entertaining crash talk oh and a psychic also, that was a while ago though

10% on 6 trillion is 600 billion debt service - it's out there somewhere - and exponentials aint been outlawed - good thing supply of 'fat years' is inexhaustable

http://www.koreainc-news.com/infocus.htm
that article is truly disturbing. We're watch it unfold week by week and here we are some 9 months later and the ripples in the water from the initial asian impact are still playing out. This continues to be a reason I am a bear on the longer term ( 2-3 years ) outlook of the market.. but as long as our current monetary situation persists with low or declining interest rates those bears sitting in cash will just have to wait until this buying frenzy exhausts itself. The increasingly bullish sentiment of the masses is leading into a major top of sorts with enthusiasm for mutual funds and stocks as the ONLY option for retirement funds and percentages of ownership in funds at all time highs... it is a recipe for disaster in my opinion.
...but rates are still allowing for the feeding frenzy to occur and until someone takes away the punchbowl ( low rates AND strong money inflows ) the party will still go on. It really pisses me off though because I still have to listen to all those clueless asses sit around the bar and exchange their 'war' stories of how great they've done in the market. That alone is not what pisses me off... it's more the fact that nobody knows what their talking about.. they just know if they keep buying then they keep making money. I can't tell you how many times I've heard someone say in the last few years "...you can't lose money in mutual funds. If they go down you just buy more and they always go back up...". It's truly frightening to think that so many people believe this as fact. I can only guess that when a bear market does unfold ... these 'dippies' will buy all the way to the bottom.

It's been awhile since I mentioned this, but I still know people that have maxed out their credit cards and still have that money from them in mutual funds. As they say... "it's free money.. my card charges 11% and my mutual funds are making almost 30%..". Granted these folks alone are not fueling the advance, but their attitude torwards the market as invincible is like a plague that is spreading across the country and seeping into investors minds that can't afford to lose.
... it would be fitting if the market tanks in '98 to coincide with the release of "Titanic"..

many years ago when I was training to be a stockbroker/salesman we were told to tell clients and prospective clients this same thing- ( a copy and paste from your previous post/// I've heard someone say in the last few years "...you can't lose money in mutual funds. If they go down you just buy more and they always go back up...". It's truly frightening to think that so many people believe this as
So the people you hear mentioning that are probably getting it from someone they believe to be a market professional...
I won't even go into what we were told to tell them about our stocks we made a market in... BTW, I left the firm in short order without ever opening a single account. And oh yeah, the firm is out of business....

i must be way out in left field but to believe in the market is to believe in human spirit and innovation....and if we think the mass, including people here, are stupid and deluded....i just don't know.....there is truth and lies...if we write off the mass as stupid, what are we??einstein?

Nope, I certainly wouldn't call myself Einstein. Especially since my own ventures in the financial markets have resulted in failure. Compare my results to the people who have continued to invest in mutual funds on every dip for the last 15 years and I appear to be quite the dunce in their shadow...

what is going on?: everywhere i read, people are cautious-pessimistic, looking for a correction, identifying a bubble, all the experts express same opinion....while the ma/pa i talk to all say everything is ok, they are invested and not worried.....so i assume the market is going to correct as the experts say ,on time and pronto???please let me know when was the last time it happened exactly as the experts predicted?
and since when everybody proclaimed it is a bubble and it tanked??? was it like that in previous bubbles, when everyone knew and talked about it? even in 1987, insider selling peaked in 1986 while market went on,and insider selling ebbed significantly in aug 87...
and right now, we have not even stalled the exponential curve, not even one year of going nowhere

difference is the hoarding frog ... most folks just will not sell fearing mainly that they will never be able to buy their stocks back lower .... with the new money commin in all the time it's just chasing prices higher and higher....no use to look for value where there isn;t any ...just look for why they are buying and that alone should tell you why you shouldn't be buyin

the romans had a saying for your viewpoint -- *interdum vulgus rectum videt*
"the rabble sometimes sees what is right"

We are closer to the top than we were a year ago, but interms of euphoria and complacency about their mutual funds, we're probably closer than we think. All the experts are saying---not just yet but in the future, maybe later in the year, we will get a 20% correction---- I don.t know about you but that sounds like DENIAL to me.

Well, maybe the MONEY keeps coming in, but the last 3 weeks have shown only one week inflow and 2 outflows. Maybe the Ma and Pops are't quite as carried away with this as we think.

You know, when I think of people desperate to buy tulip bulbs; the rare ones were so expensive the "average" person couldn't buy, people forming the equivalent of "investment clubs" to buy tulip bulbs, people hoarding tulip bulbs, etc., etc. It makes me laugh...... ( ; - )
And then one day nobody wanted Tulip Bulbs!!!!!!
and then someone ate a very expensive one, by mistake, thinking it was an onion. : ) ... and there went his retirement!
his cry of pain started the market crashing, the story goes, because, all of a sudden, folks realized something that fragile was not a good place to have thier money.

even a 35% bear haircut, not unheard of for "normal" bear markets would only take us back to 6000 where we were only 17 months ago. but not quite yet..... but he market got a little ahead of itself last week, so i'm looking for a correction monday or tuesday.

S. Korean market opens 396.38 -10.15 -2.50% Looking pretty sick...
S Korea mkt under 400
S. Korean market 52-week Range 372.37 - 591.70

South Korea.......... May Day rally turns into riot Updated at 4.30: Riot police in armoured cars fired tear gas on Friday at thousands of rock-throwing workers who were protesting at growing layoffs.

I wish the Japanese people would show their anger in the streets..

good thing that here in NA when unemployemt skyrockets workers will only have stock certificates to throw at police:}
I think it should be bounced checks.
well back in the sixties they threw flower petals dgoto so my guess is anything is possible:}

SEOUL ( Nikkei ) -Dong Suh Securities Co., the fourth-largest South Korean securities firm which went bankrupt in December, and eighth-ranked Coryo Securities Corp. will reportedly end their business operations. A financial supervision panel asked the Finance and Economy Ministry on Friday to revoke their licenses, saying it would be impossible for the brokerages to reconstruct their business. The ministry is expected to agree to the request. The two companies will be the first major South Korean brokerages to face the revoke of licenses. The committee asked the firms to submit plans to improve their management by late April. However, neither was able to satisfy the panel's conditions for reconstruction. Dong Suh announced on April 20 that it would be purchased by a U.S. mutual fund firm. The panel was unable to confirm the purchase agreement.

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Japan's gold and foreign exchange reserves totaled $205.75 billion at the end of April, down $17.83 billion from the month before. The fall was the largest on record and the first decline in four months, the ministry said Friday. The figure supported speculation that the repeated intervention in the currency markets by the government and the Bank of Japan on April 9-10 was the most substantial in history. The ministry admitted the intervention had a direct influence on the drop in foreign reserves. It also suggested that total intervention was greater than the decrease in reserves. The government and central bank started intervening in the market on April 9, when the dollar topped 133 yen. The dollar briefly dropped to 127 yen, but the U.S. unit recovered to 131 yen on the Tokyo market on April 30. Some analysts said that spending some 10% of Japan's foreign reserves to prop up the currency was a waste of money.

Catch the last line of this article ............. TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -A group of banks will start joint sales of commodity funds on May 6 ahead of the expected December lifting of a ban on banks selling investment trust funds. The banks aim to collect sales know-how for asset management products and target affluent individual clients. The group, led by Sanwa Bank ( 8320 ) and Orix Corp. ( 8591 ) , includes Chiba Bank ( 8331 ) , Fukui Bank ( 8362 ) , Kagawa Bank ( 8556 ) , Osakashi Shinkin Bank, Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. ( 8403 ) and Tottori Bank ( 8383 ) . Five other regional banks are considering joining the group. Osakashi Shinkin will be the first credit association to handle commodity funds. The commodity fund will manage about 90% of money collected from clients in risk-free gold gensaki transactions. The remaining 10% will be invested in overseas commodity futures, including precious metals and grain, and financial futures, targeting high returns. Chase Manhattan Group of the U.S. will guarantee the deals, securing initial principals for customers.

this entire bull leg from 1/12 has been built on the belief that clinton is invincible. it is no accident that the market is hanging around up here just ahead of the 5/7 grand jury dissolution in arkansas. The market is usually right, so the only thing that could support new highs is the closure of this chapter in this Clinton probe w/o any report to congress, or if there is, no re-seating of yet another GJ, and ultimately no substanitave action against Clinton

Getting geared up for another bull run or the sky is falling or something inbetween?: )
the sky is falling because the bull has his horns locked into it.; )

Japan quake sets off small tidal waves ..... TOKYO ( Reuters ) - An under-the-sea earthquake measuring 7.7 on the open-ended Richter scale Monday set off minor tidal waves along the coastline of Japan's southern islands of Okinawa but there were no immediate reports of injuries or casualties, the Japan Meteorological Agency reported.

Oleman: the folks at the gold channel are salivating over the fact you might be long for another 18 hours...have you ever sonsidered advertizing as a career?,,,;- )

oleman . . Sun, May 3, 10:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
twocents: Just back from your place. You're dead on about a close below 300. I put it a buck higher. I'll short that break. I been looking over some old books, just reading the parts I underlined the first time. Some of them read years ago. I'm reminded that there IS a source for my Forrest Gump trading method. "Larry Livingston" said that all he needed to know was whether it was a bull or a bear. If it is a bull, you buy. If its a bear, you sell. I cant improve on that nary a bit.: ) Gold closes down there tomorrow, its a BEAR, and I'm selling. Again. BTW, I'm gonna do a whole lot more of LL's "sitting" in the future.: )

This extemely subtle, subliminal fund-raising campaign for Yale Univ must stop at once! If not it will soon mutate to Princeton or Cal State Northridge or even-yuk!-USC. Stop it now I say before it's too late..................

Sunday May 3, 12:38 pm Eastern Time

Little to no rain for Canada Prairies to May 5 -EC

The International Grain Commission on Thursday forecast 1997/98 world wheat output at 609 million tonnes and the coming year's production at 592 million tonnes.

An Environment Canada soil scientist likened the Prairie soil moisture condition to that of the early spring of 1988, the last year western Canada suffered a severe drought.

Agriculture Canada also warned in its report on Friday that ``if the moisture situation worsens, some intended areas of wheat and durum may be put into summerfallow while some canola or flax areas may be shifted into wheat and barley.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980503/little_to__1.html

In some places, MidWest and MidEastern US 2nd Wetest April in History. I have not heard if they are getting into the fields for planting - this will be an interesting year for the CRB.

HighRise
l

http://www.bloomberg.com/uk/news/topeur/topeur_02.html

Maybe weve missed a very important point...

There almost seems to be a convergence around 1995--

The VAT people changed the rules for LBMA in 1991--first big push for paper trading, and rounded it off 1995 with changes regarding gold-paper loans and gold loans...so paper trading really took off...

Now, if the Euromints job was to bring out a new issue of gold coins, even when they are just 1/2 takes a bit of gold, large, wealthy population in Europe who--at the least--might enjoy have a keepsake of the event.

Maybe a hefty portion of the shifting around of gold ( inaccurately called sales ) was a coinage assessment? Possible?

So, all --in the same time-frame, we would have had gold demand from Europe for her coins, Islam for its coins, China for her coins...thats a bit of gold right? The price COULD be $700 in an honest market!

Off to think about this...
Goodnight.

As I said before, I agree with nearly all you write, and I share your avid interest in history and archaeology. The past IS prologue but it is also truly past.