Before I start, let me note that I have no London closing data for Monday May 4. Either it wasn't open, or Kitco didn't post the closings. I suspect the former, as I can't find any other references to the closings. So, I estimated what they might have been, by spot action in the States. Finally, the last data point is the closing spot price in the States. I did this, rather than waiting for tomorrow's London afternoon fixes, because those of you that pay attention to these channels charts should be alerted.
Gold - As previously mentioned, I was very surprised that gold did not reach the top of the channel that I had defined, before starting back down. This has caused me to question the validity of the channel. I looked for an alternative, and found one. This channel is shown in dotted lines. The channel top is defined by the last two tops, and the bottom is defined by the low earlier this year. This is still an upward channel, but allows gold to fall to around 290, whereas the earlier channel bottoms out just under 300. Of course, at present, gold is still holding within both channels, so we won't know which is valid ( if either ) until the POG touches one extreme or the other. Personally, I finally decided to hedge my bets and took profits on roughly half of my gold stock holdings. Now I am kind of hoping that the new channel applies, as I will be able to buy back at much lower prices.
Silver - Who knows? I'm not really confident in this channel. But it's my best guess. I'll want to see where the other metals are headed before I bet big on silver.
Platinum - EB, just so you won't feel quite so comfortable standing in platinum "up to your belly button", it appears to me that there is a good chance platinum will break through the channel bottom and head down. In fact, it appears that the breakout has occured already. However, I lack confirming London data. Just in case, I have shown an alternative channel in dotted lines. This channel heads steeply downward, and allows platinum to drop to 370-375, depending on how quickly it gets there. I started questioning platinum when it failed to make a new high when palladium went to the sky. I saw this as very bearish action. Then platinum fell through the previous support in the low 400's like it wasn't even there. Now platinum is pushing the channel bottom, while palladium is still quite high, though falling. I just can't see platinum rising while palladium is falling, and I do expect palladium to fall. Then there is today's anemic action. Platinum failed to break yesterday's high, but made new recent lows. Though the closing was a bit higher than yesterday's, this action looks weak to me. One other point. Look at the head-and-shoulders pattern in SWC. Looks classic to me. Personally, I had tight stops in place, which PL hit today. I'm out. I'll wait to see which way it is going. I'd say the odds are 60/40 that its heading down, but we'll soon know. I may either go long again or short as early as tomorrow
Palladium - What more can they say? On rumors that PA deliveries from Russia might be further delayed, PA started down, not further up. Then the rumors started that the Norilsk mine in Russia is depleted, and there may be no shipment at all. PA continued down. Maybe the next rumor will be that there never was any PA in Russia. In my opinion, PA must make a correction, at least back to the 240-250 level. However, with the margin requirements somewhere in the range of 17,000-20,000 per contract, I'll watch. My main interest is PA's influence on PL.
following.
According to Dr. Gary North and others, the total U.S. debt was at the time, about 19 trillion and according to the publication "Statistical Abstract of the U.S." the total value of all taxable real estate was about 8 trillion.
The ratio of debt to real estate value is about 2.5/1 Therefore, I
believe that your ratio of 3/1 is in the ballpark. Yes we are definately
living on borrowed money and we are collectively broke.