Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:01 - ID#384350)
The "inelastic demand" of a potato
Pepsi, actually cut back production of potato chips due to the great potato shortage. Shortage is expected to boost potato costs by $20-25 million in the 2nd qrtr. Spokesperson claims it's only a temporary thing. We've heard that before.

(Thu May 07 1998 00:02 - ID#335190)
More Banker Suicide @ Japan
May 6, 1998
Japanese finance ministry official commits suicide

TOKYO ( AP )  An official who worked at Japan's beleaguered finance ministry has hanged himself, police said today, just days after the suicide of a senior central bank executive.

Koji Onishi, 28, was found hanging Wednesday night in his room in a Finance Ministry dormitory in Tokyo, said police spokesman Shigetada Nagaoka.

He was the third finance ministry official to commit suicide this year.

Dave in CO
(Thu May 07 1998 00:03 - ID#229103)
Earnings? We don't need no stinking earnings. K-Tel and Ron-Co ( the new Vega-matic with an imbedded chip ) are screeeeeaming buys here on this permanently high plateau in the "New Paradigm". Sorry for the outburst, but CNBC really gets me going.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:07 - ID#384350)
Better pick up your Merc now before quality goes downhill. Who would have thunk it. Germans owning a Big 3 automaker.

(Thu May 07 1998 00:11 - ID#248180)
Willie & Hillie Klinton - Promote Gold

(Thu May 07 1998 00:14 - ID#248180)
Asia burning & starving - Hillie says:
"Let them eat cake".

(Thu May 07 1998 00:15 - ID#335190)
IMF Demands cuts @ Riots Indonesian madness
May 6, 1998
Indonesian mobs protesting price rises go on looting rampage

MEDAN, Indonesia ( AP )  The Indonesian currency and stock markets plunged Wednesday in alarm over rioting by angry mobs that roamed the streets of the nation's third-largest city, looting stores, attacking police and torching cars.

Unlike student-led protests in recent months, the riots Wednesday seemed random, erupting here and there without slogan-chanting, poster-waving or other signs of organization. The mobs, which at times included thousands of people, had no leaders.

The International Monetary Fund, which is overseeing a vital bailout package for Indonesia, demanded the government slash generous subsidies on food, fuel and other necessities that have aided poor Indonesians for

(Thu May 07 1998 00:16 - ID#210114)
China Baout to Topple?

(Thu May 07 1998 00:20 - ID#210114)
Going Down??
Gold down

Silver Down

$A Down

Dow Down

Nikkei Down

What the hell is going on??

Ferral Capitalism at work

(Thu May 07 1998 00:22 - ID#210114)
I wish they would shut the f*** up!!
Stop speculating and creating rumours. Make a decision and tell us the facts.

New York--May 6--Jun gold futures were pulled to a 6-week low, first by
weakness in silver, then by Herbert Hax's comment that gold might not play a big role in the reserves of the European Central Bank. Hax is chairman of the German council of economic advisers. Jly silver regressed 3.1%, reaching a 1 1/2-month low in a technical move as support broke and
sell-stops were hit.

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:25 - ID#77133)
Reify re Nikkei
I agree with your statement that "what I am seeing is a testing of the recent lows, and a lot of negative news, and no break."

The Nikkei has historically had one of the lowest price correlations to the U.S. DOW or S&P and can be a good diversification candidate. What I don't know is how the Nikkei compares now to what our U.S. market was in August of 1982, for example, when the DOW and S&P were selling at about 8X earnings. In other words is it fundamentally cheap?

(Thu May 07 1998 00:28 - ID#256250)
Yes, IU know I said that I wouldn't be surprised that eligible gold stocks ...
remained the same or even went down today. So I was wrong, someone sold and delivered to comex eligible stocks, now the question is did they sell at the low?

Looks like some folks are jumping into the silver eligible stocks. It dropped ( -598,611 -77,733 ) 676,344 ounces.


Gold 40,000
Silver 23,000
H.G. Copper 12,000

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for May 6

Gold 674,705 + 16,212 troy ounces
Silver 89,270,371 - 598,611 troy ounces
Copper 103,870 - 819 short tons

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 104,689 0 819 -819 103,870
silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn

0 77,733 37,763,663
-598,611 -77,733 51,506,708
-598,611 0 89,270,371

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 16,212 0 16,212 0 178,524
658,493 16,212 0 16,212 0 674,705

Goodnight ( Do you think the people of Asia thought that they should move a portion of their investments into gold 1 year ago today?? I think not. Do you think Americans think of moving ANY of their funds/investments in to gold bullion or golds stocks today. The only ones that do probably read this bb ( read that as Darn FEW ) . I wonder what it will look like May 6, 1999??? )

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:29 - ID#77133)
Some bad and some goods words from Herbert Hax
Bridge news abstract -
"Herbert Hax, chairman of the German council of economic advisers, said that gold might not play a big role in the reserves of the European Central Bank. Hax said that it could be imagined that gold would not play a big role because the ECB is "a larger currency area and one needs less international liquidity," although he did not elaborate on this statement.

However, he said that if there were any gold sales after European
Monetary Union, participating central banks would coordinate policy to make sure gold stocks were reduced cautiously to prevent world prices being affected."

(Thu May 07 1998 00:31 - ID#335190)
Asia @ Currencies
May 6, 1998
FOCUS-Indonesia violence spooks Asian markets

SINGAPORE, May 7 ( Reuters ) - Rioting in Indonesia spooked Asian markets on Thursday, sparking a general slide in currencies and share prices.

Currency markets were also unnerved by a Chinese central banker's musings about pressure to devalue the yuan.

"In the near term, I'm not sure what's going to give us a boost out of this negative sentiment," said Joanne Masters, international economist at Macquarie Bank.

(Thu May 07 1998 00:34 - ID#16255)
I'll get beat up for this but here goes...
I want gold to drop! And drop big!

This will mean more cheap metal for the taking. The spin doctors around
the globe can't keep all that is going on under wraps forever, we all
know that. And now we need to be long on spuds? Whats next?

Someone here a few days ago mentioned what needs to happen to push
gold higher. He missed one... A Nuclear Terrorist... Anywhere on the
planet, just a 1 kiloton firecracker, would change things forever!
This is something I fear very much...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:35 - ID#384350)
A. Goose, Food Shortage?
Earlier I tried to play on Buffett's description of Silver as having "inelastic demand".

Inelastic demand means that the underlying good or service is so important that demand does not drop off much when prices rise ( or that prices rise dramatically as supply falls ) . Food definitely falls into this category.

Last year the world supply of grains was at a 60 day supply. 60 days supply might seem like enough cushion, but as this number ( supply ) drops, the "inelasticity" of demand comes into play. Therefore a small drop in world production of food would lead to a disproportionately rise in price.

Another example of "inelastic demand" often given here is that of drinkable water. It's relatively cheap now, but if it becomes scarce the price skyrockets.

Gold miners in Australia 100 years ago paid the equivalent of $50 a gallon for it.

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:36 - ID#77133)
I wonder if he's correct????
Sakakibara says Japan economy, yen "bottoming out"

Reuters, Wednesday, May 06, 1998 at 23:21 ( ABSTRACTED )

By Jude Webber ROME, May 6 ( Reuters ) - The man known in international
financial markets as "Mr. Yen" for his ability to move markets with blunt comments said on Wednesday the Japanese economy and currency were nearing their lowest ebb. "The Japanese economy is unambiguously bottoming out," Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara told a dinner gathering of the Institute of International Finance ( IIF ) in Rome.

Asked after his speech for his position on the yen, he said: "I said the Japanese economy is bottoming out. If the economy is bottoming out, I think the yen is bottoming out as well."

"It is a reasonable proposition for an investor to start investing in an economy which is bottoming out, rather than investing in economies that are peaking out," Sakakibara said.

(Thu May 07 1998 00:47 - ID#335190)
Water USofA & Canada (Ontario Conservative's) @ Export Market via Tankers Water=Gold M
Canada wants water-export question before international commission

OTTAWA ( CP )  Canada has asked the United States to agree to refer the question of Great Lakes water exports to the International Joint Commission.

"Our governments have a responsibility to manage this resource and ensure a safe and plentiful supply of clean water."

John Febbraro has an Ontario permit to sell 600 million litres of water annually over the next five years, but he said it was never his intention to trigger an international incident.

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 00:49 - ID#77133)
TRUE - Giving money to the IMF is not aid!
IMF limited to $10-12 bln without new cash-Fischer

Reuters, Wednesday, May 06, 1998 at 23:27 - WASHINGTON, May 6 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund needs cash from its members because usable resources would be just $10-12 billion without it, deputy head Stanley Fischer said in a radio interview broadcast on Wednesday.
First Deputy Managing Director Fischer told National Public Radio's Market Place program that the U.S. administration's request for $18 billion from Congress was "a good investment."

He said the extra cash was needed to cope with possible economic crises in the future, and singled out Japan as a particular cause for concern. "There are some clouds on the horizon," Fischer said. "You have a very weak Japanese economy, you have other points of weakness in the world economy and if you are going to break down into crisis we would be very limited -- to effect about $10-12 billion."

This is half the size of the IMF's $20 billion contribution to a record-breaking $60 billion international rescue deal for South Korea, which was the third one-time tiger economy to turn to the IMF for help.
The administration's request for additional financing for the IMF is currently stalled in the House.

The United States contributes 18 percent of IMF resources and other countries are unlikely to offer their share of the cash until the United States pays.

"Giving money to the IMF is not aid," Fischer said. "It earns interest and when we we lend we charge interest. It is a very good investment for the United States to make in world stability." ) )
Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

 1998, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Thu May 07 1998 00:53 - ID#226286)
good news on RANGY diamond situation

SouthernEra, De Beers and 29 heirs to the Marsfontein farm have been trying to negotiate a settlement in recent weeks to avoid a messy court battle over mineral rights to the farm.

``I think we're making progress and I have to be an optimist that we will sort it out,'' Jennings said of Friday's negotiations.

Asked when an agreement may be hammered out, he said: ``I don't know. I'm sure it will be less than a week now, but I may be hopeful.''

(Thu May 07 1998 00:54 - ID#256250)
Date: Thu May 07 1998 00:35
Gianni Dioro__A ( A. Goose, Food Shortage? ) ID#384350:

You are dead on target. Jimmy Rogers is playing the food angle strongly ( at I heard ) . The way he looks at it, the odds are against the world squeaking by one more time.

Date: Thu May 07 1998 00:34
Open-Loop ( I'll get beat up for this but here goes... ) ID#16255:

Somehow I don't think you are the only one that feels that way. I have the feeling that some big time plays are placing their bets at the lowest price they can NOT just for gold but also for many commodities.

Date: Thu May 07 1998 00:15
6pak ( IMF Demands cuts @ Riots Indonesian madness ) ID#335190:
Copyright  1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu May 07 1998 00:14
Junior ( Asia burning & starving - Hillie says: ) ID#248180:
"Let them eat cake".

I expect any day to read the IMF is requiring daily human sacrifices from Asian countries. Oooops, I guess they already do require it. Ouch! How come folks put up with this B.S.???/

Date: Thu May 07 1998 00:02
6pak ( More Banker Suicide @ Japan ) ID#335190:

You know 6pak, all this frustration and confusion and  would be worth it, IF I new that our fine government leaders, bankers, lawyers, would follow the fine Japanese's example. I must be tired. Sorry, I will head off to bed now. Calm down A.Goose, the laws of nature rule over the laws of man  Calm down, the laws of nature rule over the laws of man

(Thu May 07 1998 01:00 - ID#224149)
K-Tel -Mob Frenzy to buy ---Maybe the real Mob
K-tel express on the net ---Here today Gone Tomorrow --- The markup on their Compact Discs averages 75% .I could undercut K-tel by $3.00 per unit and still make 40% .Now if I could issue a million shares at $100.00 each? Old Gold I feel you should give LGB some tips on procrastination You know how the markets work sometime most of the time ---not all of the time ---maybe this time  could be the next time ---Away to buy Gold on Thursdays close ---I can take it ---Whatever

(Thu May 07 1998 01:08 - ID#224149)
Let old ideas die -But slowly
Open-Loop I agree Lets get it down to $180.00 I want to swim in it ---Then you can call me Golden Boy ---Away before the darts and arrows

(Thu May 07 1998 01:12 - ID#290118)
Inelastic supply
Saw another Fedex commercial tonight - morning begins with empty store shelves, empty assembly lines, etc. ( is this an apocolypes commercial I wondered ) . Then the FedEX trucks arrive - the shelves are stocked the parts arrive for assembly, etc. ( never mind FedEX's shipping rates ) .
Honest guys - they were advertising this as the ideal.
We know most U.S. cities would last only a few days when the trucks, ships, and railroads quit rolling.
But the FedEX commercial disturbs me. With Y2K looming ahead, a rope only one day long is a quick way to commit economic suicide.
Remember the FedEX commercial a few years back about a business absolutely having to have the product tomorrow. Somewhat later the competition screeched to a halt to make the delivery. Too late - the business was out-of-business.
Now on to the world grain supply - 60 days last year. Was that before or after the spring drought in the southwest?
When push comes to shove - priorities 1&2 will be water and food.
Priority 3 will be self-defense ( though it may move up to #1 ) .

(Thu May 07 1998 01:14 - ID#255151)
Hong Kong @ 9880

Much red ink in Asian markets. Gold hasn't done so well either the last few days. Disney's son, Jeil, was right.

(Thu May 07 1998 01:17 - ID#255151)

$180 Gold? You lads best be runnin' for cover!

(Thu May 07 1998 01:20 - ID#248180)
@ A Goose or Sir Goose?
Sir Gooose, I like that better than "A" Goose. We are agreed that the IMF has drained Asia Tigers, used the work force, devalued thier currencies shamelessly compared to the USD con note. Some how I do not think that the USA/IMF/CIA have calculated the potential outcome accuratly. Major shifts, new alliances and PM's backing of currencies will be revealed. The old game will not continue as before for the USA/IMF.

(Thu May 07 1998 01:42 - ID#255151)
Ringing a Bell?

Justice Department to launch action against Microsoft and Intel? This could be big.

(Thu May 07 1998 01:51 - ID#16255)
@Squirril@Poorboys.are we ready???
Yep would not bother me a bit if it tanks I would get nervous in say
5 or 10 years but short term TANK could be good. However, I justa cant
see it doing that cuz all the physical would be sucked up in short
On food: We have a years supply here for 2 people plus. After todays
news may go get some more. Water? No problem... 18,000 gallons in the
back yard. Just dont pee in it!!

(Thu May 07 1998 02:07 - ID#206358)

As far as i noticed,this two weeks thousands of kilos bars and refinery gold been appeared on the markets.Dued to the devalueation of the currencies,the METALS shot up liked rocket,though the oversea market spot price is down.Yet,the retail market is bad,the cash flow is tighten and inflations is high. ( someone might say is good investment now ) But,the peoples need FOOD, not the metals.
I'm holding the METALS,incase the situations getting worse....praying..wishing....hoping.....***!

Will try to post more update news from here.

so long...JIN

(Thu May 07 1998 02:14 - ID#224149)
Gold @ Meat Warning could be dangerous to your health
Buy Gold on Thursdays close ---What came over me? After looking at todays charts Resistance at 306.90 and 313.30 June futures --- Old Cole Is right ---Better to watch and assimilate than loose money Away to see the drug induced cows that reach the nations dinner plates.

(Thu May 07 1998 02:15 - ID#266105)
@Randgold/Marsfontein wrangle

(Thu May 07 1998 02:25 - ID#316193)
Max Moseley's Thoughts on the EURO -- May Newsletter

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 02:30 - ID#24135)
Leaky Gum Boot-Defined!!
For Leaky Gum Boot.
Difference between us is that I BOUGHT 90,000
Shares Harmony at avg price of 11.12 rands. Sold
a lot at 24 .. bought back 26.. Starting selling
yesterday .. got 28.5. Have done just as well on
Randfontein..but have not mentioned as ADR are
not easily traded. I want to get 24 ( only 17 now )
bought at 8 to 9. Im satisfied.
You DID NOT buy KTEL .. and I doubt if you bought
silver where you said you did. But I dont really
Meanwhile I amuse myself by watching silver fall.
But dont worry .. youll be right one day .. everyone
always is.
Hey you know what a Leaky Gum Boot is ... rubber with
a hole in it.
Keep boasting.. your fragile ego seems to require it.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 02:32 - ID#24135)
For RT
Ill drink to that

(Thu May 07 1998 02:50 - ID#255151)
Hillary Favors Palestinian State

In a broadcast to a youth group in Switzerland ( ! ) , Hillary Rod'em Clinton expressed support for creation of Palestinian state. Will have to scroll down to find the story. Today could be interesting, yes?

(Thu May 07 1998 03:07 - ID#393224)
Open Loop
G'day mate. How long is your 18 000 gallons of H2O in the back yard going to last when your neighbours haven't got a drop. Serious question. Hope you live on a farm and your neighbours are also well supplied.

(Thu May 07 1998 03:10 - ID#255151)
Correction on Fox URL

Fox News Just went there and the story is gone. It was there a few minutes ago. Honest.

(Thu May 07 1998 03:16 - ID#393224)
Important article--apologies for length or if posted.

Top Chinese economist: be worried

By Peter Hartcher, Asia-Pacific Editor

The chief economist of China's central bank has identified
"immense difficulties" in Asia's only remaining big
high-growth economy, including the risk of widespread
collapse in the financial system.

In a remarkably frank paper, Yi Gang and an academic
co-author, Song Ligang, said that while China had
escaped "relatively unscathed" from the Asian economic
crisis so far, the region's problems had sounded an alarm
and "the Government has very good reasons to worry".

There were profound implications for China and for the
global economy, they said.

Among the risks were the "real danger of economic
disinflation which would have negative effects on the
reform process".

"There is broad agreement that significant delays to the
reform process will increase the risk of widespread
financial collapse," they said. The dangers in the financial
system included problem loans of "about 20 to 30 per
cent of total loans" in the banking system.

This is an immense proportion. In pre-crisis Thailand, the
comparable figure was 15 per cent.

Until now, the Chinese authorities have not admitted
problem loans on this scale.

The paper, delivered at an Australian National University
conference on the Asia crisis on Tuesday, said China
faced the risk of a "double squeeze", where its economic
growth was under pressure both at home and abroad.
On one hand, the economy was slowing because of tight
domestic economic policies in place since the
early-1990s. On the other, the weakness of crisis-racked
currencies in South-East Asia had made China's exports
less competitive in the world market.

Policy makers faced a dilemma in addressing this "double
squeeze": if they used the customary measures to ease the
problems, they could precipitate new crises. If they eased
interest rates to encourage growth at home this could
undermine the exchange rate and trigger a new round of
devaluations around Asia.

And if they were to stimulate exports with a devaluation,
they could encounter exactly the same problem.

Nevertheless, pressure for a devaluation was likely to
mount later this year, the authors said.

Mr Yi and his co-author, the Australian National
University ( ANU ) research fellow Song Ligang,
suggested that China may opt for a gradual devaluation of
the currency to avoid major disruption to the region's

China's economy grew at 9.7 per cent in 1996 and an
estimated 8.8 per cent last year. In the first quarter of this
year it grew at an annualised 7.2 per cent. Their paper
listed the problems confronting China's economy,

A slowdown in demand. ". . . it may indicate that
the tight macroeconomic policies implemented
since the early 1990s have come to a kind of limit,
beyond which there is a real danger of economic
disinflation. . ."

Rising real interest rates. While inflation had fallen,
nominal interest rates had "remained fairly stable".
The result was that this "increased enterprises'
burden of interest payments to the highest level for
the entire reform period", which began in 1978.

Rising unemployment. "It is estimated that the
ongoing reform process will add about a million
workers a year to the army of unemployed," which
last year totalled 11.51m.

Loss of competitiveness. "There are increasing
difficulties for exports which are already showing
signs of slowing as China is underpriced by
South-East Asian countries."

Bad loans and financial risks.

Declining share earnings.

Weak institutions.

The paper also set out an agenda for required reform if
China is to avert serious crisis.

Commenting on the paper, an ANU fellow in economics,
Huang Yiping, said China had not escaped contagion
from the Asia crisis. It may have avoided the spread of
crisis through its regulated financial system, he said, but
was instead catching the disease through the so-called
"real" sector of economic activity.

"If the growth rate falls in China, it will not just be another
recession -- it will be very hard to continue with the
reform process and there's likely to be some social
unrest," he said.

From being a miracle to needing one? China's top
economist talks

(Thu May 07 1998 03:16 - ID#233199)
@ Disney, John
Would you be buying Randgold now or wait?

Could you tell us more of your sons prognostications?

Thank you...

(Thu May 07 1998 03:17 - ID#233199)
Make that "son's"

(Thu May 07 1998 03:20 - ID#284255)
What's your ICQ# please.

I did a search on our local power provider for Y2K compliance - FNQEB who has now privatised under a company named Ergon Energy.

Not one mention. Zilch. Nada. Zero.

Have sent both of them an email asking questions - hopefully they will reply.

If they go down we'll need more than just water.

Did you see the segment on SBS news last night regarding the CIA view.

(Thu May 07 1998 03:24 - ID#257148)
Evening all

I'll not sup again at the Kitco Bar & Grill till the good people at AyeSeaCue fix the 68K version, My stalwart Mac crashes all the time and I got better things to do than bug-test someone else's software.....

Hey, way cool new advertiser!
NZ Platinum gets a mention, this is news to me here, well, it was posted at kitco a few weeks ago. I recall an Optimistic company Called Platinum Group Metals' prospectus in 1986 looking around the same area, but slightly North of Blackstone's. I doubt I can still find the prospectus, the co went belly up by 1988. Some people sure do swear there's Platinum in them that hills, and 100 times more gold than ever been found.....

Also great charts Look at Palladium go and erudite market comment too.

More Bluff oysters! and they all work..


(Thu May 07 1998 03:30 - ID#284255)
You'd better watch out
Supply and demand

The oyster graph will be charging uphill

At your rate of consumption.

Perhaps you should start consuming gold.
Aurator consumator of the prescious


(Thu May 07 1998 03:38 - ID#273227)
John Disney
A while back you noted that you owned St. Helna Gold ( SGOLY ) . I am in search of the date that the next dividend is recorded for ( x-dividend ) . I think it is June 30, payable sometime in November. Are you able to confirm these dates? thanks.

(Thu May 07 1998 03:40 - ID#284255)
Energy Industry: Only 30% Remediation of Bad Chips by 2000
An offshore platform may have 10,000 or more embedded silicon chips governing all automated and even some manual processes. Many of these systems are subsurface or underwater and physically difficult to access.

It is estimated that the average oil and gas firm, starting today, can expect to remediate less than 30% of the overall potential failure points in the production environment. This reality shifts the focus of the solution away from trying to fix the problem, to planning strategies that would minimize potential damage and mitigate potential safety hazards.

No oil = no functionality

(Thu May 07 1998 03:41 - ID#255151)
CIA/Y2K Story--Very Spooky

(Thu May 07 1998 03:44 - ID#255151)
Try Again


(Thu May 07 1998 03:44 - ID#255267)
@Sydney in Russel, VA
Who's this "Boot" fellar that's got your keyboard up and about! Where is his post? It's just about time for the RANGY pep rally, it seems they're running a special on memberships!

(Thu May 07 1998 03:49 - ID#273227)
This morning you posted a URL about indicators you use. Back in January, you mentioned you use PREM.X/TRIN also. What did you call this? Even though I haven't been able to plot this on my tradestation to see how it performs, I can see how it would be a nice leading indicator.

(Thu May 07 1998 03:51 - ID#393224)
G'day Finny/Auracious
Finny--I am fully expecting and preparing for the fact that nothing is going to work ( progressively getting worse ) over the next couple of years. Woke up this morning and no electricity. Thought it had already started. Our whole area was blacked out for a couple of hours. I have a generator for lights, microwave oven etc. but I fully expect to say goodbye to all of you on the net sometime next year. So I'll get my goodbyes to all my Kitco mates in early, because even if my computer is Y2K compliant, there will be a hitch somewhere along the line that will crash the whole thing.

Auracious--ditto on your ICQ/Mirabilis comment!! I downloaded the damned thing and then had non-stop computer problems for the next 3 days. I crashed at least 4 times a day!! So I decided to kill the beast. Famous last words!! The bloody thing is a 28 legged octopus. I spent hours fereting out all of the tentacles in my hard drive. Bloody thing had suckers everywhere!! I have managed to eliminate all but one 10k hidden file that my computer refuses to shoot!! Says it 'needs' the bastard for windows to work. Not only does ICQ invade your system--but like HAL--it takes over and thinks it is better than you!! Help me out computer whizzes, if you know how I can kill the beast ( hidden file ) !!

(Thu May 07 1998 04:02 - ID#255267)
Boy I tell ya that Greenspan is working the Plung Protection Team overtime. He's even got them working the night shift in asia! His meeting today must not have gone well. The word fear comes to mind.

(Thu May 07 1998 04:03 - ID#255151)
Kitco Farewell Song

Nick--If that sad day comes, this would be a nice goodbye song. "Happy Trails to You"

(Thu May 07 1998 04:20 - ID#328159)
ICQ (has Bart got shares in it?)
I have noticed from posts here that Icey Queue has turned out to have at least three problematical areas: ( 1 ) the interface is non-intuitive, ( 2 ) it can be hard to find people ( 'telephone' numbers, not names? Haven't we learned anything from DNS naming? ) ( 3 ) ( thanks Nick@C ) it Octopuses your computer. ( apologies to other posters who I haven't acknowledged ) .

Whereas, IRC is easy to use ( except for command-line syntax, which nevertheless is no big deal and most of it is handled by alternative menus and clicks anyway ) , ( 2 ) easy to find people; if your personal setup includes the character string 'kitco' you can find everyone by entering /who *kitco*; or simply go to a well-known 'channel' ( chat room ) .

Normally once set up all you need to do is start the program, pick a server off a menu, when connected enter /join #kitco_bar_and_grill ( for example ) and you're off. A click or two and you can have a private chat with any individual. A client-to-client protocol inside the program will allow you to transfer files between youself and another person.

Installing one of the most popular shareware clients ( mIRC ) is straightforward and in my experience does not Octopus your computer. There are other IRC clients, but mIRC is the one I personally like best. There are 16 bit and 32 bit versions.

For a kitco trial of IRC to be worthwhile, we need to agree a specific time or times to rendezvous on a server/channel [Undernet/#kitco?], to get sufficient numbers. Suggestions anyone?

(Thu May 07 1998 04:20 - ID#284255)
A you a Mac'er or IMB cloner
If you have a cloner you could remove it in dos.

You should'nt be such a D&Ger
Nuttin's going to go wrong.


I'm on the road tooooo!!!!!

(Thu May 07 1998 04:23 - ID#393224)
G'day Auric.
How's it going mate. Not using my pet name for you as it may give more info than you desire. I'm always sensitive ( well almost always ) to peoples concerns for anonymity. I think people here fail to realize that there are 'big' interests lurking on the net that may find the truth threatening.

Thanks for the song--needed that--just as gold takes out 300. Now we shall see if the mid to high 290's will hold. Then we've got our 278-280 rock bottom. After that I've got my palm trees and white sand beach in Queensland where I will watch the golden sunsets and the nubile young lasses in their almost non-existant swimming cossies. Hell, on many of the Aussie beaches they don't even wear that much. The missus would of course be keeping a watchful eye on me and making sure that I don't exercise any more than my eyes. Where was I? Oh, California or Bust!! NO. Gold bottom or beach bunny bottoms!! Come to think of it--might not be too bad if gold tanked!?

(Thu May 07 1998 04:31 - ID#255151)

Heh heh. Sounds you're set to ride out Y2K in style! ( Happy Tails to You )

(Thu May 07 1998 04:33 - ID#45173)
Gold as Y2K Hedge

(Thu May 07 1998 04:37 - ID#257148)
anything but eyesicku
I'm all ears

Lead on Macduff

(Thu May 07 1998 04:42 - ID#284255)
I lurked that formula off Avid
You can use it on
Worth a study, yes.

I saw a documentary on SBS TV last night about the CIA comments.

Surfed the net and came up with two articles on the report.
ABC and Yahoo-Reuters - no others.

I then went into CIA databases and did searches on specific words that they commented on.
Came up with Zilch - nothing.

The CIA has this report on the inside and do'nt want the masses to see the report.
I wished to see the report before the reporters got to it. - No such luck.

I wonder very much about what that report documents.

Are the CIA concerned about those IDCBM's aimed at US cities by the Chinese?

(Thu May 07 1998 04:46 - ID#328159)
IRC client URLs
The mIRC IRC program home page:

Shareware IRC:,71,766785,00.html

Windows and Apple users info:

Nice pictorial setup info:

IRC Clients:

You will need to cut/paste/reconstruct this long URL for
IRC clients:

IRC, comments at #daytraders channel home pages:>

(Thu May 07 1998 04:48 - ID#284255)
U.S. Nuclear Power Industry Is at the Chips Inventory Stage
Comment:From Gary;
This is the most frightening document I have seen since I began my site.

I have said that Western Civilization will not survive if the power grids go down. The U.S. power grid is probably going down if this report is true.

The California White Paper says that awareness is 1% of a y2k repair project. Inventory is 1%. This report says that the U.S. nuclear power power companies are at the inventory stage with regard to embedded chips. These plants supply 20% of the nation's power; 40% in the east. The grid has perhaps 15% excess capacity, says Rick Cowles. A shutdown would put the grid into the negative side nationally, and way negative regionally.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:06 - ID#42039)
Concerning comex gold wharehouse stock,how do you compute the"schedule for delivery"?
Thank you

(Thu May 07 1998 05:12 - ID#333126)
meanwhile in a South East Asian country...

riots ... riots ... populace getting unhappy over rising costs of living ...

what is the world coming to?

hmm... where's my drink?

(Thu May 07 1998 05:14 - ID#39828)
How are you? Dont you just love our heroic government. Banana
republic here we come. In fact I hope they get nailed with
conspiracy. Wheres our dollar tonight? huh 63.5c. Makes you
want to wake the polies up with a cricket bat. $AGold has
spiked and is now well above our fire sale price.
Things are really sick. I here the loud sucking sound and it
is not our sh!t shooter. A wave so big is heading towards our shores.
I just might stay well clear of this one. Japan could just about plunge the world into extreme economic chaos within weeks. I am not ashamed
to say, I am really really scared. Is my worry unwarranted or does
this somehow correlate with how you feel? Is that ping creeping up
quietly on us? I must say I appreciate your discussion and was hoping
you could reply to my concerns. Thanks, the hog who has hedged 100%.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:15 - ID#284255)
*** BART ***
Your link no longer contains a link to here?

Software Vendors Are Stonewalling the U.S. Government
Software vendors in the telecommunications field are refusing to comment on their y2k status. One reason is fear of lawsuits. But the government's y2k czar, John Koskinen, says that this will not save them in a liability suit.

They don't want us to know!!!!!!
This is becoming more prevalent.

Wonder why????

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 05:16 - ID#24135)
For SWP1
I can still whup that kid.. But he says gold
down .. 60/40 chance.. Ive been selling beloved
Harmony this morning. Even options .. Dumped
Amplats. I would not buy rangy or anything now
in the gold department until the smoke clears.
Son got me to take short CALLS on the s&p.
Kills me but I did it.
In weak moment BEFORE the 300 spot break,
added 10000 dbndeep preferred stock .. at
a thumping 17 rands.. it will convert shortly
to a share of common at 16 plus an option at
5.5 = for 21.5 at a cost of 17. The seller
is an idiot ( I THINK )
Son says spike down starts when 300 broken
on June .. we are close now. He said this about
a month ago .. I think he reads next months
papers. It's starting to annoy me.
For Kuston.
Sorry I was out of St Helena a while back.
I may buy some again though. I have no idea
of the ex div date.

Cage Rattler
(Thu May 07 1998 05:18 - ID#33184)
Nick@C - Removing hidden files
I'm assuming you are using Windows 95. Make a bootable diskette and then boot off it. This will allow you to copy, delete, etc. any file on the hard disk. You may have to unhide the file before deleting it. You could do this in Windows 95 by right clicking the name and changing its hidden attribute or by going to DOS and typing 'attrib -h filename'.

PLEASE be careful, the file may be required by Windows 95. It may be safer at first to rename ( not delete it ) the file so that Windows 95 cannot find it. If there is a problem then rename the file back to the original name.

As always, its best to back up everything first to be 100% safe.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:22 - ID#257148)
The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step----
Well the IRC download was harmless, thanks for the links, now what we do?

So many more software options with better documentation, that is a very good sign, this, coming from someone whose also documents software, and is aware of the oxymoron.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:28 - ID#233199)
@ Disney John

Thanks for the predictions. I iam a micro inffestor ( not by choice ) and sold my pitiful few DbnDeep shares a few days ago hoping to nimble enough to catch them on the way back up.

However, now that I am unburdened I am wondering if I should move to RANGY instead ( when the time it right of course )

Ah - what to do - what to do....

(Thu May 07 1998 05:28 - ID#257148)
DOS is why I like ma Mac.
DOS --- The operating system from hll, hanging around Win 95, & 98, NT in all versions like an idiot relation in the attic. uh oh, someone let him out again....

(Thu May 07 1998 05:30 - ID#233199)
@ ANOTHER: Come back! I need hope!

(Thu May 07 1998 05:32 - ID#233199)
inffestor indeed!

(Thu May 07 1998 05:36 - ID#257148)

tell fruit of your loins that my pick, and wagered here for all to see, but uptaken only by valiant Auric, was for the spike down before 30 June and to be closer to 270 than 280. We are seeing the same smoke rings, he and I.

Auric, just tell me when you'd like the address of my choice of charity, uh huh...

(Thu May 07 1998 05:39 - ID#255151)

Just don't make me contribute to Clinton's Legal Defense Fund!

(Thu May 07 1998 05:40 - ID#328159)
IRC - aurator
Some of those URLs have beginner info. I suggest you join and lurk on some interesting channels. Beware, many channels are full of idiots. However, there are some gems. #Windows on EFNet ( previously #Window95 ) was very helpful during its launch. You may find it interesting to see what is happening on the channel #daytraders on Undernet around market open ( 13:30 GMT ) - there is near real time information about what is going on in the markets.

I shall post a list of servers and channels in a short while.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:44 - ID#393224)
G'day Cage Rattler
Many thanx, mate. I have saved your post and will try it out under less inebrious conditions. Hope I don't get bitten by a rattler. BTW-- Did I ever tell you about the time I was camping in S. Calif. -- went walkabout and stuck my head into a big cavity in a rock-- about one foot from my nose was a big coiled up rattle snake!! I mean--BIG!! The sound it made!! I broke the world high jump record--but unfortunately it was unrecorded!! I don't ever want to hear that sound again!! Gonna save and try tomorrow ( as the guy in the rocking chair on the porch in 'Tobacco Road' would say to his wife ( when asked to do a million chores ) , "Tomorra,.........maybe!!" Cheers, N.

(Thu May 07 1998 05:47 - ID#284255)
WOW - It'll soon be buying time.
GCM8 = $299.80 - low =$299.2

Soon, not now, the buying time will begin.
Most bull moves are preceeded buy a 'confidence failure'.

Look through your charts.
How many times, do you see a share, that you've studied the fundamentals, done the T/A, watched and waited for,
Suddenly colllapse, and you wonder why?
And stay away.
A month later you re-check the share
And see that it has blasted to the moon.

Gold has now entered this criteria.
Watch wait and accumulate.
As it falls to it's low.

Soon will come the best buy of the century
But not quite yet.

Love to chat. Do you have ICQ?

(Thu May 07 1998 06:04 - ID#284255)
GCM8 = $299.80
John D
Tell your son that his eyes are pointed forward.
Have a good look - at his eyes - not the vodka. ( :-? ) )

Go gold: Volatility is the choice.
Soon we buy? Yes! - But not quite yet. Yes?

EH! EBchoosingtheroadofexcesses

(Thu May 07 1998 06:09 - ID#255151)

Heh heh, "inffestor". Love it! "Inffestor" shall take an honored position among such Kitcoisms as Brabo! and speach.

(Thu May 07 1998 06:18 - ID#233199)
Mr Disney
If you are there now, could you give us an update on RANGY, DROOY, & HGMCY ( or whatever they are called over there )


(Thu May 07 1998 06:20 - ID#393224)
Rocky Mountain oysters.
Gold under 300.
Now we find out who looks like they just came out of a cold swimming pool!!

Great buying opportunity or time to hide in your cave??

(Thu May 07 1998 06:26 - ID#393224)
Gold spot $298.50
Now look at the fin-chart and see that 298.50 is just above the line. Will it hold??

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 06:39 - ID#24135)
joys and sorrows of the marketplace
For SWP1
Yes .. Harmony 26.5 rand where I sold more
and Drooy at 15 ... I just BOUGHT drooy
preferreds... ( Rangold I dont know ) ..
also sold more randfontein.

I couldnt stop myself.. I told you all before that I
have really only been buying DDeep PREFERRED stock and
options. OK so Kebbel just announced that as of March
29 all preferred would be converted to commom at
one share commom plus an "Option" ( valued at 5 Rand ) .
So ive been picking up the preferred in drips and
drabs at about a silly one rand premium over the common.
Then I told broker .. just put in a standing bid for
say 10,000 and we try to fill it as it comes on the
Next thing I know .. Another guy does the same THING.
And IM infuriated ... but wait for it ..
Then some idiot OFFERS 30,000 at 1 rand over the
common price. I could not believe it.
Before I bought it I reconfirmed the end of
month deal with deeps. The seller passes up a
20 % premium at month end simply because he
any more questions.
( Meanwhile gold is dissapearing )
(Thu May 07 1998 06:39 - ID#434108)
a double bottom perhaps
the early Jan lows at $280 would be a 'nice' double-bottom

(Thu May 07 1998 06:41 - ID#255151)

Just ordered a handful of Gold, Silver, and Platinum from Kitco. Let's get physical! Yes?

(Thu May 07 1998 06:49 - ID#317193)
The European CBs are manipulating gold again with rumors. Nothing new. My fundamental analysis remains unchanged. TA has not changed either, YET.

The question is why? You dont manipulate the price down of what you plan to sell. There is a reason and purpose for what is occurring. If not to sell then to accumulate?

Could I possibly be able to buy December contracts @ $299 or under again. Maybe so. Time will tell. Glad I got stopped out last week.

Fear will not find its way into my investment strategy. Nor will greed. Will see what action today brings. Spot @ $295 or less is a definite yes for me to jump back in. Time tells all. Patience, my son, patience.


(Thu May 07 1998 06:50 - ID#27499)
Solitary thinking?
Sorry about the length, but I found it difficult to edit.
Personal view
WILLIAM DUDLEY: From virtuous to vicious
The US economy shows persistent strength. High real interest rates, trade drag from Asia, a stronger dollar, fiscal restraint - none of these has been sufficient to sap the economy's momentum.
Why has the US economy performed so well in spite of so many restraints? One needs look no further than the booming US equity market. By boosting household net worth - adding about $1,000bn ( 600bn ) in the first quarter and more than $6,000bn since 1990 - it has encouraged households to keep spending. The strength of the stock market is the main reason why the personal saving rate fell to a 57-year low last year; why save out of income when the stock market boosted household net worth by 13 per cent in 1997?
The robust stock market has been a significant part of the virtuous circle fanning talk that the economy has entered a "new era". Strong growth has generated rising earnings, pushing up share prices, fostering greater investment, increasing capacity and restraining inflation. Low inflation has helped to extend the life of the business expansion. The longer business expansion has boosted the equity market further by shrinking the equity risk premium. If recessions are less frequent, equities are less risky. As a result, investors are willing to pay more for a dollar of equity earnings.
As the equity market has continued to rise, the circle has become increasingly virtuous. For example, the stock market has helped hold down compensation expenses. Benefit costs have been restrained because many companies have not had to make contributions to defined benefit plans; they are fully funded as a result of the stock market's strength. Pressures for higher wages have also been restrained as share options have become a more important component of compensation.
Stock market strength has even helped push the federal budget into surplus. The rise in share prices ( coupled with a change in capital gains tax rates ) has led to a surge in capital gains realisations, boosting tax receipts. Capital gains tax receipts should climb to nearly $100bn this year, up from $44bn in 1995.
The importance of the stock market in keeping this virtuous circle intact cannot be overstated. To illustrate this, Goldman Sachs constructed a "financial conditions index" ( see chart ) by adding a stock market variable - the Standard & Poor's 500 index - to the monetary conditions index, which includes short- and long-term interest rates and the trade-weighted dollar.
The chart shows that the addition of the stock market has caused the financial conditions index to diverge sharply from the monetary conditions index in recent years. While the dollar's strength has caused the monetary index to move to its tightest setting during this business cycle, the financial conditions index shows a substantial easing. The stock market rise has overwhelmed the restraint exerted by a stronger dollar, making financial market conditions easier.
Based on monetary conditions, one would conclude that Federal Reserve officials would soon need to ease monetary policy. But looking at financial conditions, one reaches the opposite conclusion. The financial conditions index has done a much better job of anticipating the economy's strength in recent years.
So what does this imply for the economy and interest rates?
First, it suggests the economy will continue to be more robust than expected. Certainly, the pace of growth will start to slow in the second quarter, but this is largely for one-off reasons and is likely to prove temporary. Second, it implies that financial market conditions will need to be tightened. Excluding a collapse in equity prices or a dramatic strengthening of the dollar, Fed officials will need to push up interest rates in order to tighten financial conditions and restrain the pace of economic growth.
How much tightening might be required? While the answer depends on the reaction of the stock market and the dollar to such tightening, the financial conditions index suggests that a significant rise in rates could be needed.
One point on the index is equivalent to a one percentage point change in all the index's components. This means that, if share prices and the dollar were unchanged, it would take a rise of more than 300 basis points in both short- and long-term interest rates to push the financial index back to the level reached at the end of 1994. In practice, the dollar and share prices would be affected by a rate move of such magnitude, which would limit the extent of the rise needed.
But the point remains valid. If the equity market and the dollar are not unusually sensitive to changes in interest rates, it will take much more than the 25 to 50 basis points of tightening that some people are arguing will be needed to restrain the economy.
Just as serious an issue is whether Fed officials would be able to engineer a soft landing. The problem is that an economy that depends for support on a healthy stock market and a virtuous circle may be strong, but it is also quite brittle. It could become sick quite quickly should the stock market sink and the virtuous circle end. The boom and bust in Japan is a good example of this.
If share prices were to decline sharply, consumer spending would sink as households responded by raising their saving rates. Investment spending would also falter. Not only would the cost of capital rise as equity prices fell, but businesses would question the need to expand capacity when consumer spending was faltering.
The benefits of a strong stock market - lower benefit costs, more tax receipts - would also evaporate, raising questions about the new economic era. It might be difficult for Fed officials to modulate monetary policy precisely enough to slow the economy, but avoid an economic downturn.
This underscores the biggest error of monetary policy in recent years. If Fed officials had tightened rates in 1996 and 1997 by more than 25 basis points, the stock market would not be so high, the labour markets not so tight, nor the circle so virtuous. The economy would be less vulnerable to a monetary tightening that could turn a virtuous circle into something vicious.
The author is director of US economics research at Goldman Sachs

(Thu May 07 1998 07:25 - ID#286230)
Biggest Name in Canadian Mutual Funds Looses Magic
Mersch may be out at Altamira

Mutual Funds Reporter The Financial Post
Frank Mersch, one of Canada's best known money managers, is said to be leaving Altamira
Investment Services Inc., where he rose to the pinnacle of success.
Sources close to the firm said Mersch's departure from Altamira could be revealed this week.
Altamira executives declined to comment and Mersch is out of town.
The sources said Altamira's newly appointed chief executive, Gordon Cheesbrough, is
determined to stem the flow of mutual fund redemptions and that he is unhappy with Mersch's
Mersch oversees Altamira's Canadian equity investing and manages the flagship $1.87-billion
Altamira Equity Fund, which has been an underperformer. It returned 9.5% in the year ended
March 31, compared with a 23.2% average return for Canadian equity funds.
Assets in Altamira funds have declined by more than 10% in the past 12 months.
In the early 1990s, Mersch's star reputation was built on an aggressive trading style and a
knack for sector rotating.
Cheesbrough was appointed CEO in January, following the October resolution of a bitter
ownership battle over Altamira.
The dispute ended when Manulife Financial sold its entire 31% stake to TA Associates Inc. of
Boston, which now owns 35% of Altamira.
Collectively Mersch and other executives continue to own 17% of Altamira.

(Thu May 07 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Japan worried about US stock market decline

(Thu May 07 1998 07:30 - ID#39828)
slip sliding away
sharefin, got ICQ, # is 12163846. After a few puter hiccups
everything seems to be working. Did you see Kerry O'Brian
interview Howard. Kerry hit him with the $15 workers pay rise,
and how that would cause bracket creep. I thought exactly the
same thing myself when it was announced. The gov giveth with
one and taketh with the other. This is going to mean 4.2
billion extra in revenue for gov. Little Johnny got really
flared under the collar when Kerry suggested this was a
dishonest way of creating a surplus.

(Thu May 07 1998 07:33 - ID#233199)
BMG Who said what and could you say it again please?

Is Battle Mtn Gold a takeover candidte; when; how much & why.

I'd like a little history so I'm not flying blind. Is this one of those sucky good ole CDN boyo screw the little guy kind of deals? Or is there a rel play here?


(Thu May 07 1998 07:41 - ID#254201)
SnP, Gold, Silver
If you were following yesterdays SnP trade you should have been stopped out at break even. Try buying today at 1104. I was stopped out of my remaining silver at 6.00 took a bigger lose then I should have let what I thought was a strong seasonal get in front of common sense trading. I'm short at 6.00 looking to reverse and go long at 5.82 July. Buy June Gold at 295 should hold.

(Thu May 07 1998 07:49 - ID#26793)
Chinese economist denies he is author of paper (paper posted earlier here

(Thu May 07 1998 07:51 - ID#26793)
The number of Japanese banks will be halved

(Thu May 07 1998 07:52 - ID#328159)
IRC chat: servers and channels
( see also my 04:46 and 04:20 )
The three main IRC networks are EFNet ( stands for Eris Free Net, since the original Eris server is no longer on it! ) , Undernet and Dalnet. The networks continue to increase in number, since IRC has a non-scalable architecture, i.e. if it gets too big the CPU power needed in the servers increases out of proportion to the number of users. The Undernet seems to have all the traders' channels at the moment, e.g. #daytraders.

Undernet IRC servers
UK server:
The following are recommended by #daytraders:

Scanman's AnotherNET IRC Server List ( the ideal network for Kitco??? )

Scanman's Yet ANOTHERnet IRC servers List

Dalnet IRC servers

EFNet IRC servers

CNN Chat server

Miscellaneous IRC server list URLs

Note on finding servers:-
Once you get on a network, you can see what servers other people are using by entering the command /whois nickname- this is very useful for finding out current servers - example:

/whois KOKO ( or menu-mouse-click equivalent )

1 WinShoe_ KOKO amrzaki * :amrzaki
2 WinShoe_ KOKO :#usa #cybercafe #CyberChat #egypt
3 WinShoe_ KOKO :[] Western Canada's Only DALnet Serve
4 WinShoe_ koko :End of /WHOIS list.

Line 1: User identifications- nickname, username, IP, comment
( reply addressed to me, i.e. nickname WinShoe )
Line 2: Channels the user has joined
Line 3: Server the user is using
Line 4: End Protocol for the list.

IRC channels: Channels come and go, some of them are active only
at particular times, so you won't necessarily find activity
in all of these:

EFNet Channels:
#30plus The channel for people aged 30 and over.
#astronomy - Astronomers on IRC
#Art_Bell - devoted to listeners of the talk radio shows hosted by Art Bell
#HP48 - The HP48 Calculator Users Channel
#IRCBar - Open bar.
#Macintosh - the #Macintosh channel page.
#mIRC - a freeware IRC client for Windows
#xf - "The X-Files"

Undernet Channels:
#AynRand - Forum for discussion of Ayn Rand's works and her philosophy of Objectivism
#Wasteland - The Undernet Operators channel.
#daytraders - Day trading in stocks & shares
#dtot - Day traders off topic

Dalnet channels:
#AW - Another World Chat Tues/Thurs @ 9pm est. ( no, really? )
#mIRC ( Help for the IRC Client mIRC )
#Helpdesk ( Various Help, Scripting, etc )
#CourtTv - AOL Courtroom Chat
#civil_war - General discussion on people and events of the American Civil War
#howardstern - Howard Stern IRC Channel
#IRCHelp - The DALnet IRC Help Channel
#IrcleHelp - Macintosh Ircle Help
#Limbaugh - The Rush Limbaugh Channel
#MAC_HELP - Need Mac Help? Come on in!!!
#MacHelp - Mac Help Channel
#mirc - A help channel for the IRC client mIRC
#mirc_scripts - mIRC script channel
#mutualfunds - Discussion Of Mutual Funds
#NT - The Windows NT Channel
#Newbies - IRC Newbies
#new2mirc - get help on mirc
#shooting - A channel for discussion of competitive shooting.
#usa - The #Usa Channel
#winhelp - WinHelp
#30+Cafe - light conversation for 30+ folks
#30-40+ - Nice Chat & and CLEAN fun for Mature Adults
#30andUP - Clean & Friendly!

/whois will tell you what other similar channels people are on. For instance, in #daytraders, doing /whois on someone there might tell you that they are also on #mbtrading, #dtot and/or #profits- you can then join those channels to see what is going on.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 07:59 - ID#384350)
My 00:35, Inelastic Demand
I should add that goods or services which have high degrees of inelasticity of demand are those that do not really have suitable substitutes or replacements. This is Buffett's read on Silver.

6pak- your 00:47 post on water was fitting.

Squirrel- I remember talking about the 60 day grain supply, July-Aug 97. I wonder if anyone could find current info on this subject.

Poorboys- You need to have a groovy logo like K-tel, but I think you're right, someone like Richard Branson's Virgin Group could easily displace K-tel.

(Thu May 07 1998 07:59 - ID#26793)
Morning gold & PM news and comment from London

(Thu May 07 1998 08:09 - ID#413109)
POG- CB manipulation
My 2 cents- Watch the US$ visa-vis other major currencies, and consider
that CBs may be seeing the future the way the Kitco bugs see it. Voila-
drive the price down, swap some surplus paper $deposits, for the real
thing, but not so anyone will notice, of course.
B.Butler clearly states- that gold is primarily a political metal, ever
wonder why? Politicians love to spend, it keeps them in power, so if
gold puts a crimp in their style, why not get rid of it, and spend more
freely ( no more lousy gold restraints ) Makes sense No?
We all are watching the long term picture unfold. Whether one thinks
it's written the one of the "good books" or part of a cyclical phenomenon
or just plain mania, especially at the turn of a century, it matters not
it all boils down to the same direction in the end.
The Y2K problem, large medium or small, it just adds fuel to the fire
started long ago by the politicos, in cahoots with who knows, but surely
for their own benefits, and we all joined in and tried to get something
for nothing. The future generations will pay the bills!!!!

(Thu May 07 1998 08:10 - ID#215208)
Where will it stop?
That's the big question for the day. My guesses:

Gold: 293-295

Silver: 5.30-5.50 ( But APH know more than I, so this is probably wrong )

Platinum: 375-380

Palladium: 270-280

(Thu May 07 1998 08:10 - ID#26793)
Indonesian rioting hurting the yen; now at 18 month low to the German mark

(Thu May 07 1998 08:17 - ID#238295)
Some dealers are saying POG may close above $300 today. If so a very nice rally will quickly follow.

(Thu May 07 1998 08:23 - ID#7568)

In the bloodbath that has been the precious metals markets over the last few days there is a strong feeling here that it is the result of governmental intervention. While I believe that there has been 'manipulation' I don't believe it on the part of any governmental institution.

The gold and silver markets have actually been fairly quiet of late in the commercial sectors, that is, those people who actually mine it and consume it for industrial purposes. In addition, there does not seem to have been any central bank selling of note, with the possible exception of a piece coming out of South Africa. The South African selling is just a rumor and a guess and not a strong one at that.

When the markets get quiet, the dealing community needs to make a living otherwise. Their favorite method of 'earning' money is to attempt to run the stops of the big technical trend following funds. All the rumors and statements about EMI gold reserves have been unfounded to say the least, and have more than likely been made in concert with price manipulations whose sole purpose was to run stops. In this regard they have been remarkably successful.

A lot of the rally in gold from 300 up to 315 could be traced to the purchases of one fund. This is the largest of technical players. Similarly, the decline from then till now is merely an unwinding of the same large position. This mornings selling in London was connected to yesterday's selling in NY in that it was more liquidation by the same fund. It is likely now that the liquidation is over but there exist the possibility that this and other funds will swing from neutral to short.

This same fund has had the misfortune of trading the silver market in the same manner. They were large buyers around the 750 level ( 50 +million oz ) , liquidators at the 580 level and short sellers of perhaps 30 million ounces around the 610 level. A second large fund has also taken a pretty big beating and yesterdays, and Tuesdays silver selling can be laid at their doorstep. This selling was almost certainly liquidation rather than shorting. The best guess at this time is that one of these funds is short around 30 million ounces and the other is neutral. The risk in the silver market is that these funds increase their short exposure to the same extant as their long exposure during the big rally. This would leave perhaps another 60 million ounces of potential selling in the air.

If this selling does materialize, we will probably see a move back to the 550 level and then a very strong reversal. I don't rate this as a high probability scenario, because the dealing community likes to shoot at existing positions and thus real stops rather than entry points. In addition, in order to move the market further to entice the short selling would require more selling on the part of the dealers and this is a risky strategy given the existance of the long consortium.

Silver's move down this morning is on little volume and is more in sympathy with gold than anything else. If the market stabilizes for an hour or two it should begin to drift higher. Once the dealers are pretty certain that there is no more large scale fund selling the next up move should commence. Its first target will be the stops associated with the 30 million ounce short. You'll know it when you see it.

(Thu May 07 1998 08:34 - ID#432184)
whats going on?
The U.S. dollars losing strength. Uncertainty in Asia, Rumours of higer interest rates and gold still droping ( 297.10 ) Does anyone really know whats going on.

Bob M
(Thu May 07 1998 08:39 - ID#259251)
Coming soon ...
the gold collapse cometh...$250 gold will be coming soon....deflations ugly head shall rise

(Thu May 07 1998 08:43 - ID#317193)
Thanks. Tom

(Thu May 07 1998 08:50 - ID#377211)
DOW eroding
I will say it again... Sneaky erosion of the DOW... selling will accelerate today and volatility will increase... Friday could be a bad day for the DOW...
Goldstocks are giving us a " la 1987" Spring retraction... and we know what will follow.
Just guesses. Good luck

(Thu May 07 1998 08:53 - ID#257136)
A source for following up on mozel's posts!
Thanks mozel for awakening in our breasts the flickering coal of Patriotism!! May it flame more brightly as never before!

This link will help all to download and study at leisure the problems we face and by downloading we'll save a lot of Bart's bandwidth!
A worthwhile duality of purpose!!


Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 08:58 - ID#384350)
Use your illusion
Bill the Banker was in trouble and his wife, Hillary, knew it. She constantly nagged him, "Look at the mess you've got us into. With all the paper debt you've created. There is no way out, and they are going to make you spend all of Our gold defending that mountain of paper. I don't know why I married you, you pathetic twit." And she kept on nagging him, up to the point where Bill was about to whack her upside her wide, wide head.

Then he smiled and said, "Hey, I've got an idea. I'll sell the gold to you at a sweetheart deal, and when this finally all comes crashing down in the year 2000, I won't have any gold to defend this paper. YOU'LL HAVE IT."

"Heh, heh, heh, heh", they chuckled.

The preceeding story was fictional, any resemblance to persons dead or living is purely coincidental.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:05 - ID#252391)
Thank you DA
for you calming and illuminating perspective.

What's your take on the deflation scare??

JOE Smith
(Thu May 07 1998 09:08 - ID#24869)
australian silver site starts up
mostly for beginners at

you will need to cut and paste this one

(Thu May 07 1998 09:08 - ID#288369)

(Thu May 07 1998 09:10 - ID#342315)
A.Goose re previous post
Awhile back, I believe , you posted a list of Bullion Banks and their positions. If I'm correct, could you repost or refer me to the time and date? Many thanx, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 09:13 - ID#31868)
The Cuervo Central Shaman has begun to chant, he informed me that
gold and silver will end up on the day. If not he will be boiled alive in tequila.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:19 - ID#288369)
Roll out the barrel....I'm burning more powder midday....Peg the somma bitch, now! We've given back exactly 50% of the run....a good day for buying, I think. ( gulp ) to ya! General T.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:22 - ID#342315)
Jeil re analytical method
I got to thinking. with the method you use, time must crowd up on you. Rather than me asking you to consider some analysis, could you sell or give me a program so I could do it. Some of the data I want to use is voluminous. If this is feasable, let me know, Thanx, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 09:23 - ID#42039)
Let us know if you got some info on BMG.Volume & price are mysteriously not normal.Isn t it the whished-alleged sale of noranda s stake:28%.They should be in

(Thu May 07 1998 09:25 - ID#22584)
Is this guy kidding or what?
Gordon Brown is the British Chancellor, equivalent to Treasury Secretary.

Registration required

Confident Brown predicts an
Indonesian recovery despite new

GORDON BROWN yesterday told the Jakarta Stock
Exchange that he was confident the region would soon return
to economic health - even as riots over IMF-backed price
reforms in Indonesia were sending a fresh tremor across
Asian financial markets.

The Chancellor, completing a whistle-stop tour of Asia,
insisted: "I have been encouraged by what I have seen and
heard during my travels in the region."

The Jakarta Stock Exchange, however, tumbled 5 per cent
while the Indonesian rupiah crashed 10 per cent as fears grew
that the rioting could lead to widespread instability in the

The Chancellor, visiting the region in the capacity of Britain's
presidency of the G8 group of countries, has enjoyed an
eventful trip. His South Korean stopover coincided with an
outbreak of strikes there. In Malaysia, he was apparently
snubbed by Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the Prime
Minister, who has been upset at coverage in the British press
of Malaysia's illegal immigration problems.

The rioting, which broke out in a number of Indonesian cities,
was triggered by a 70 per cent increase in fuel prices as part
of the country's commitment to IMF reforms. Soldiers and
police have used armoured cars, rubber bullets and teargas in
more than a dozen cities to contain those trying to stage street
demonstrations, a form of protest banned by the Government
in February.

Worst hit was Medan in Sumatra, an important commodities
centre, where police used pistol shots to break up crowds, six
people apparently dying in the turmoil.

Mr Brown used his speech to issue a veiled threat to
President Suharto that he must not renege on commitments to
economic reform. He called on the country to implement
political reforms to ensure that "a shared consensus" existed
on the need to take tough action to resolve its economic crisis.

President Suharto, however, said only last week that he would
not countentance political reform before his term of office
ends in 2003.

The Chancellor also outlined his views on the need for better
co-operation between global financial institutions, particularly
the IMF and the World Bank.

On the issue of improving global financial systems and
international co-operation, Mr Brown said the IMF should be
more willing to clamp down on errant governments. After
private warnings, the Chancellor said that the fund should
"issue a yellow card if things are not changed in a reasonable
period of time".

Analysts gave a warning that the rupiah was in danger of
slipping back towards levels that could bring hyperinflation,
undermining the IMF's $40 billion ( 24.2 million ) bail-out
package for the country.

Other Asian markets also took fright at the renewed problems
in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country. The
Malaysian ringitt and Korean won, which have also been
battered by the Asian financial crisis, suffered renewed heavy

In Tokyo, traders returning from a two-day holiday marked
shares lower with the Nikkei average closing down 2.29 per
cent at 15,243.84. They expressed concern about Japan's
exposure to Indonesia but were also disheartened by reports
that the Government was not considering any further tax cuts
to help to kickstart the country's own moribund economy.

Gloom in Tokyo also infected Hong Kong, which closed down
44.52 at 10,109.14.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:30 - ID#375108)
Take care, brother. Our "problems" with falling gold prices are nothing compared with your situation. GOD BLESS....

(Thu May 07 1998 09:31 - ID#349224)
Market comments to all!
1. Regarding gold, I have some Kuggerands, but have more invested in gold stocks, one major producer and several juniors. Of course, they've been hit hard. I can afford to wait, so long as the juniors don't actually go belly up. I also have $1000 face value of silver dimes; they just sit there gathering dust, but could certainly be used in an emergency.

I have heard some of your comments on the silver market and am wondering what the rest of you think? Warren Buffet is not a "speculator", so I have to assume that he has not sold his holdings ( and probably will not in the immediate future ) . He probably regards it as a hedge against the huge paper losses that he will probably have to take on his other equities over the next two-three years due to the "impending" market meltdown. Rumors are that George Soros is also in the silver market??

Larry Edelson, associate editor of Safe Money Report, insists in the March and April 1998 issues that although Comex silver stocks are low, that stocks of silver in London are quite high. He wants his readers to stay clear of the silver market. On the other hand, Nick Guarino, editor of Wall Street Underground, however, is encouraging his readers ( March 1998 ) to get into the silver market with both feet. Nick is no neophyte; he's made millions for his clients in the silver market over the years. Comments?

It seems to me that gold and silver are money, even though some folks today do not recognize this. I believe that we will experience economic chaos due to huge personal, corporate and government debt, global manufacturing overcapacity, and Y2K. It's only the timing that is in question. Wasting assets such as options could expire worthless if this chaos takes longer than anticipated to start. Leveraged investments such as futures could experience huge short term losses before the chaos starts and force their sale. It seems as though bullion or mining stocks are the most safe??

2. Although the White House says that the recent meeting between Alan Greenspan, Secretary Rubin and Clinton was at their request, what if Greenspan and Rubin simply said: Mr President, we have some issues that must be discussed right away. Then Clinton says "OK come over tomorrow morning." That was at the "White House's" request. Then at the meeting Greenspan ( backed up by Rubin ) "explains" to Clinton that he really needs to raise interest rates at the May 19 meeting. He at least owes the president that "heads up". Comments?

3. The interesting thing that is happening is that during "normal" economic times the Fed can "control" the economy by adjusting interest rates. However, we are approaching the time when the Fed will NOT be able to achieve the desired end. Right now they would like to cool off the US stock market by raising rates, but are afraid of causing a bigger problem than they are curing. Again, this is like driving at 100 miles per hour down the highway and hitting a big pothole; no matter how you struggle with the wheel you cannot stay on the road.

4. Question: Can someone explain "current account"? Is a current account deficit when we import more than we export? My financial dictionary is no help.

Email to

(Thu May 07 1998 09:42 - ID#410215)
..... Definately NAB .....

The gold market is NAB

(Thu May 07 1998 09:43 - ID#288369)
@ I am a golden oldie, pray tell........
K-Tel will be the example noted in the history books that illustrates the degree of insanity that existed in the great bull market of the late twentieth century. "Fortunes lost on K-Tel" this hilarious or what?..... Johnny Angel....da doo run run....Crazy, man!

(Thu May 07 1998 09:45 - ID#258427)

(Thu May 07 1998 09:49 - ID#253228)
You posted your e-mail address once before and I did not take note of it, so would you post it again. Programs are not for sale, however I might consider some arrangement. They are not a black box with data in at one end and projections out at the other. There is some judgement involved. Also there calculations take a long time so a current computer is needed. Were you to try running them, you might ultimately curse the day you decided to give it a try. Right now my e-mail does not seem to be working so it may be some time before I get back to you, which gives me a little more time to consider your request.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 09:50 - ID#24135)
A potato shortage !!
to all

The Irish finally got it RIGHT.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:53 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Per my 16:36 of yesterday, I did enter a buy order in on the June gold at 298.0 or lower. Got filled. But I also said that should this not be a spike, but if it 'roosts' at these levels, all bets would be off. That is currently what seems to be happening. Also, July silver has not gotten close enough to 5.80 for my liking. Thus? I could expect a bit more to this downdraft. If/when I see imminent failure, I'll be bailing out. Afterall, at this important level, one 'should' be able to expect some buying causing a decent bounce, but currently, I do not see it. NOT GOOD!

(Thu May 07 1998 09:58 - ID#213265)
@the scene
In the mean time, cocoa and sugar are still movin' on up.

(Thu May 07 1998 09:59 - ID#419147)
Gold will not play big role in EU

Don't you ever learn????

Before every drop in SE Asia gold was referred to as poor investment/ barbaric relict etc. In general a bearish statement. Now I think China will tank. Well devalue at least.

PS. Since I have been trying to implement some US Fed strategies lately, I refuse to accept any responsibilities if my prediction goes wrong. However, if I'm right, send me a check.


(Thu May 07 1998 10:00 - ID#317193)
The option game
The problem with selling option calls in a declining market is that the market can only decline so far. Look at January. Say at spot $280 you sold June calls @ $286. Brother do you need to push the price down. Obviously, there are a bunch of call options higher than that but there have to be a bunch between $286 and $295. If you can drop the price just before June option expiry more people buy on the further out contracts and you start to face the same problem every other month until the situation explodes in your face.

The question is one of timing and recognizing where spot gold has to be to avoid loses on naked calls on each option expiry.

What does this say about today and tomorrow? Well, my take is that spot has to go to about$290- $292. Otherwise some good size loses will be incurred. If that happens we may see this ponzi scheme ending. Maybe even before December. IMHO


(Thu May 07 1998 10:00 - ID#410215)
..... Yep, NAB .....

It is the LGB indicator of the state of the gold market. I think he has taken to heart the idea that this forum needs a dependable gold REPORT. Borrowing from the book of ANOTHER, the "As Before" ( ASB ) or "Not As Before" ( NAB ) indicators were created by LGB to give us the most succinct gold report possible.

I believe the ASB/NAB indicator is one of the most useful tools to come out of this forum. Some on this forum think a NAB indicator is EXTREMELY BULLISH for gold. Others Think an ASB indicator is EXTREMELY BULLISH for gold. Still others believe that a mixed picture of ASB/NAB is EXTREMELY BULLISH for gold.

Since LGB seems to be sleeping in this morning, I took the "Liberty" to make this morning's gold report.

It is NAB


(Thu May 07 1998 10:01 - ID#342315)
Jeil re yours
I can very well appreciate your disclaimers. I think my computer has the nec capacity. I will get out the books and send you the details. My email
is cdevoto@abts,net I'll try to email you just in case. Many thanx, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 10:06 - ID#288369)
@You think we've got indigestion........
The Fat Lady just took a swig of booze and grabbed her microphone...she's heading for the stage...and,...Curtains up! Adios Mama Dow. mi...mi....mi....mi..mi..mi..mi...

(Thu May 07 1998 10:07 - ID#339274)
June gold
FWIW STill a sell the XAU since 86 ,a long for June gold with a stop
296 stop.Will go long on the XAU if it get to 79.5 ,possibly
tomorrow morning .

(Thu May 07 1998 10:12 - ID#228100)
Site for Option Prices?
Could someone post their favorite URL site address for that lists current prices for options? I have not been able to find a reliable site. Thanks!

(Thu May 07 1998 10:13 - ID#410215)
..... The Dinner Bell is Ringinginginginging .....

Platinum say's, in is deceptively small and weakened voice, "Buy me here, I am soooooooooooo cheap. I will go up. I promise."

Should we believe our little white lass?

I think so


The Play is in the Platinum


(Thu May 07 1998 10:14 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - The Shaman is chanting non-stop, babbling at this point,
the natives are getting restless, the Shaman better come through, it was a mess when we boiled the last one.

His voodoo is powerful...silver seems to be listening, and now for the golden spirit.

We have lit the fire under the cauldron, we decided to give the Shaman an added incentive.

Gulp to ya!

(Thu May 07 1998 10:25 - ID#342315)
D.A. re your 08:23
Is it possible to arbitrage between NY and London? With the activity you referred to here, some hedged trades may be possible if regulations etc don't get in the way. Appreciate your comments. Thanx, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 10:25 - ID#244418)
@Year2000--Options Price Site
Options site:

(Thu May 07 1998 10:25 - ID#298259)
Canyon Resources...liquidating hedge positon...

(Thu May 07 1998 10:38 - ID#341189)
Tolerant, Change the incentive.
Put salt on the edges and chill the cauldron. Give the Shaman something to look forward to. Sort of like stock options.

(Thu May 07 1998 10:40 - ID#433142)
Gold "gurus"

Have been lurking/posting on this site for several months now and though this message may appear to be "sour grapes", ( as I've been stopped out of June gold today with a significant loss ) , I have to point out that I've learned MUCH from you Kitcoites here re: global economy/fed/Y2K/one-world-government/Euro/Maastricht Treaty/Asian implosion/DOW bubble/"Another"/ etc., etc., etc. I am a gambler ( semi-professional ) by nature and, hence, I accept my recent gold "bath" since I am a "babe in the woods" when it comes to precious metals. However, being a gambler, I think it is my obligation to point out to you GOLDBUGS that you are consistently "betting on the come" ( as we say on the crap table ) , and betting on historical situations. You are reluctant to admit that the "in economic turmoil - safe haven" philosophy is no longer appropro. It is not supply and demand anymore, but Central Banks/Slick Willy-Alan Greenspan/Rothschilds/oil, etc. that are controlling the gold price - and your "technical indicators"/waves/double-tops" are IMHO all bullsh-t. I will still maintain a gold position as a percentage of my portfolio ( and to keep an eye on you fellas ) , but I'm flipping my reserves back into grains/softs or other equivalents in which the "supply/demand factor" IS a factor. God bless you all. Go gold . . .

(Thu May 07 1998 10:45 - ID#410215)
...... Two Ways .....

GC500+in98 -

There is more than one voice on this forum. You chose to listen to the louder voices. Others here are making profits on these moves. These markets move two directions. Playing one side of the coin means you will never see it come up "Heads" and will more than likely take it in the tail.


(Thu May 07 1998 10:46 - ID#317193)
We watch
Wonder if somebody with some real money wants to exercise the call options they hold? Patience, my son, patience. Your not the big money-watch and wait. Spot to $290 or $305? Have no idea. The spring may be wound tighter than I think. We watch,Yes?


(Thu May 07 1998 10:46 - ID#284255)
Euro plus Y2K equals $1.5t bill
"It will have a seismic impact on the global economy in terms of where capital sits," said Mr Kyte.
"This will create a data processing nightmare," he said, especially for banks and retailers. Fixing the problem would not, he warned, be "trivial".

Rupiah and stockmarket tumble as inflation starts to soar
Nerves getting more frayed by the day
Forget last week's Wall Street rebound from its slide -- the market is growing increasingly nervous about the prospect of an imminent interest rate rise.

A meeting between Greenspan, Treasury chief Bob Rubin and President Clinton only served to increase the fears -- after all, the last time these three had a formal meeting was in January 1997, less than 20 weeks before the Fed raised rates to their present level of 5.5 per cent.

Rubin continued the stream of senior officials warning against too much excitement on the stockmarket when he urged "rigorous" analysis of investment decisions.
Gloom gives Nikkei a beating
Japan's deteriorating economy has plunged stocks to their lowest level since mid-January and caused an extraordinary rally in the bond market, driven by rising fears of deflation.
Bank jockeying obscures the real issues
Forget the squalid political squabble over the first head of the European Central Bank. It will quickly join the faded memories of deals and fudges on the long road to the euro single currency.
Euro reality puts new focus on yen barriers
The completion of the final steps for the creation of a common European currency will shake up Japanese financial policy makers who have long been intent on expanding the international role of the yen.

The front of the new 1 euro coin. The back is left blank for each country to decide on its own design.
FOCUS-What happened to Asia's export-led recovery?
When Asia's currencies dropped like a stone at the start of 1998, the perceived wisdom was that by the middle of the year a wave of cheap Asian goods would flood world markets and fuel an export-led recovery. Recent figures show this is not happening.
Euro v dollar: the reserve currency challenge
Reality is beginning to sink in. The euro is going to happen. So what does this mean for the dollar? For the first time since the 1930s, when the dollar replaced sterling as the major reserve currency, the US dollar will have a credible challenger.

Biggest merger ever $98Billion - Mercedes/Crysler - another 'pop at the top'.

(Thu May 07 1998 10:47 - ID#266105)

sorex-- your 0650 on the scantly mentioned benefits of a rising stock
market-- great take, like they say that met on the way up
is the same met on the way down.

Al-lah O akbar...on dd options and the fellow failing to read the
news..good for you.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 10:48 - ID#384350)
Was Buffett's Purchase really that Big?
First of all Buffett is known to speculate in arbitrage deals. In the case of Silver, it looks like he's shooting for a much higher target price than what we have seen.

The media made it look like it was some kind of massive investment, cornering 20% of the world's current supply, but was it really?

Reminiscent of the former great Bo Jackson, Buffett's new "hobby" is Silver; a $600 some odd million hobby, with shareholders' money. Buffett quips it makes up less than 2% of the investment portfolio.

Let's look at the Daimler-Benz offer of $40 Billion for Chrysler in stock and debt assumption. Now, what if Chrysler didn't want stock in exchange? What if they wanted Silver instead?

How would a $40 Billion purchase affect the silver market as compared to the $600 million purchase by Buffett?

(Thu May 07 1998 10:49 - ID#31868)
Carl - we tried that last time, it took us three days
to find the Shaman. He crawled into the cauldron when nobody was looking and drank himself silly. All he could do was sing the third act of Oklahoma for two weeks after that. The natives are edgy, they are already firing up the smokehouse in preparation of his boiling.

The mood inside the walls is tense, the scoreboard is moving in his direction though. His magic is intense...we shall see...boiling tequila seems to motivate him, can't tell if it is fear or the fumes.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:01 - ID#433142)
Have noticed goldbug denigration of your "opinions" in that they are not consistently "long". Mail me at Let's converse off-line. Tanx.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:03 - ID#7568)

There are arbitrage opportunities between NY and London silver, however they are really only available to the dealing community because the opportunities are shortlived and the spreads very small.

The big anomoly in the market at the moment is the quality of the silver in the comex vs the delivery specifications in London. The silver held under warrant at the Comex is now by and large undeliverable against London specifications. All the 'good' silver, London deliverable, has been removed, or is tightly held. If one stands for delivery of Comex silver, all you get are bar lists with brands that are no good in London. This means, that in order to satisfy London delivery with Comex silver, it must first be removed from the warehouse, refined and then flown to London. This process will take a few weeks and will cost somewhere near 9 cents an ounce. The shipping costs are somewhere around 3-4 cents per ounce with the refining costs making up the difference.

As of late the premium of London silver over NY for similar forward dates has been running around 5 cents. If the number gets low, it pays to own London on a date for date basis. If the number gets high, it will be indicative of a renewed drawdown of Comex stocks.

The next time that silver gets tight, the Comex stocks will play a lagging role in sating the demand. This is because of the need to refine the material and then fly it over. For this reason, a massive squeeze can occur in the London physical market, which can not be abated by comex stockpiles, as meager as they are. This also means that it is unlikely that Comex warehouse stocks will be an indicator of coming tightness. They will be the last stocks to go, not the first.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:05 - ID#22956)
Dinner Time??
Then let us ALL sit down at the banquet table and dine HEAVILY on the main course.......PLATINUM. Gold will be 'scraps' that we feed the dogs sitting at our feets. And we will drink deep from silver chalices whilst boasting of our plat profits to all who did not take heed.......uh huh.

YES....OK..... the great western forum for game three.....and a thorough thrashing of sonics................. ( is Ted finished with his Mansion yet ) ? go lakers ( ! )


astigmatic-thong-tester-boy......seen any OD's lately ( ? )

(Thu May 07 1998 11:05 - ID#280215)

(Thu May 07 1998 11:11 - ID#20135)

Date: Thu May 07 1998 05:06
goldy88 ( TO A.GOOSE ) ID#42039:
Concerning comex gold wharehouse stock,how do you compute the"schedule for delivery"?
Thank you

Sorry, I have no way of knowing how the actual deliveries are made and when. We have had only two people step forward to share with us their experiences with comex. Both had a great deal of trouble getting their bullion and it took months. As for any detail reports etc. , I don't think they are available to us.

Date: Thu May 07 1998 09:10
chas ( A.Goose re previous post ) ID#342315:
Awhile back, I believe , you posted a list of Bullion Banks and their positions. If I'm correct, could you repost or
refer me to the time and date? Many thanx, Charlie

The list I posted is just the standard depositories. Here is the complete listing from yesterday.

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
78,323 0 0 0 0 78,323
36,947 16,212 0 16,212 0 53,159
115,270 16,212 0 16,212 0 131,482
166,425 0 0 0 0 166,425
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682
184,107 0 0 0 0 184,107
251,433 0 0 0 0 251,433
107,683 0 0 0 0 107,683
359,116 0 0 0 0 359,116
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 16,212 0 16,212 0 178,524
658,493 16,212 0 16,212 0 674,705

Date: Thu May 07 1998 10:48
Gianni Dioro__A ( Was Buffett's Purchase really that Big? ) ID#384350:

How would a $40 Billion purchase affect the silver market as compared to the $600 million purchase by Buffett?

Well, at $6.25 per ounce ( giving a average increase in price ) $40 billion will get them 6.4 billion ounces. Comex has 51,506,708. THAT IS 51.5 MILLION OUNCES.

I guess that means they will have to pay  $62.50 per ounce and they will get 640 million ounces.

I guess the silver price would skyrocket, even if a portion of the Chrysler.
Money finds it way to the pm market. Good point.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:11 - ID#7568)

One of the bigger metals dealers has been selling 295 puts and buying 300 calls for tommorrows expirey. This is a good sign.

As I have commented here before, the change in hedging strategy for the producers is going to align their interest with the bullion houses at these levels. Because some of the producers have switched to a long put strategy, rather than outright forward sales, the sellers of those puts, the dealing community, have no interest in seeing serious price breaks. They become natural supporters of the price, especially going into options expiration.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:12 - ID#266105)
@I see Q! -- cap'n pescard

Nick@C --The bloody thing is a 28 legged octopus. I spent hours fereting out all of the tentacles in my hard drive. Bloody
thing had suckers everywhere!!


That orca keep ya octopied.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:13 - ID#342315)
D.A. re Ag.arb
Thanx a lot. I suspect the same thing applies to gold. That explains the diff in price between the two locations. I have done this on NYSE in the past with merger potentials, but you got to have a good wire operator. Now with pushbutton e trades I thought there may be a potential, I guess the potential is to get your butt skinned. Much obliged, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 11:20 - ID#280215)
As RJ so aptly pointed out, you chose 1 direction. If I'm not mistaken, many who have enlightned you with their wavelet/double top bullsh_t as you call it, have indicated that a drop to 295ish was in order, even if the longer term indicators say we are eventually heading up. We are near there now and can even drop a few more bucks.

This is the same situation/argument that happens to many on this forum, as I've observed. You go in one direction and get stopped out because your stop is too tight, instead of playing a short term opposite position also. The wavelet/double top bullsh_t has been right on since the 317 top so far. The technical picture then indicated , a 295ish call was in order before the next upward push. We are there now!

It seems you have chosen to ignore this info and have only listened to those on the long side. I made that mistake many moons ago and learned to NEVER do it again, no matter how good it looks in a particular direction. Good luck!

(Thu May 07 1998 11:21 - ID#269409)
@ RJ
AB & NAB ....I like it.

Now I have to resist temptation to build on it and create redundancies that would dilute the effectiveness. You know, that old rock group ABBA.
( "As Before...Before Another" )

PS...Where's that open buying by BIS in Oil's secretive bid for Gold today????? How's come we're not seeing $320 to $360? Oh well, I think I'll take yer advice and buy a little Platinum. Bought a lil Silver like Silver today RJ or waiting for $5.60 - $5.80?

(Thu May 07 1998 11:23 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu May 07 1998 11:03
D.A. ( silver.arb ) ID#7568:

Thanks for the information.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:25 - ID#206358)
NICK AND DONALD...Maybe you liked this page..INDONESIA?!



(Thu May 07 1998 11:25 - ID#269409)
If you're a semi pro gambler, you surely don't play craps? A semi pro would only play poker ( or perhaps Blackjack if he can find a fair game where the casino isn't cheating or using countermeasures ) ...Those are the only two games that can be beaten.

Ohhh yeah, I almost forgot, options and futures in the metals can pay off for .001% of the players also!

(Thu May 07 1998 11:28 - ID#258427)
Hey...that's neat...How do you do that?
Bart's frames have the 12:00 price for silver...

We need more of this type of information :: ) )

(Thu May 07 1998 11:29 - ID#266105)

Say Jin, as I understand it you're in Indonesia ( ?? )
What has happened to your costs since last year--
water, telephone, electricity, food, etc. In whatever
currency, rupiah, it doesn't matter. Just to give us
an idea.

(Thu May 07 1998 11:39 - ID#269409)
@ JohnSeatDizzy
Wow, I'm impressed! A guy who can time a stock perfectly. You must be the only one in the world who can make millions on the long side, on stocks that fall 25% to 40% during your investment window. However, rather than foolin with puny Harmony, why not put those perfect timing talents to better use in some REAL stocks?

For example, I bought Phizer options just before the Viagra announcement, sold a few days later for a 100,000% profit, ditto Ktel, and then as I was taking my Noon walk yesterday, I spotted something shiny on the sidewalk and picked it up...turned out to be a Gold "Brasher" doubloon worth millions...why would someone let it drop from their pocket? Now since you're a nicer guy than I am ,

Maybe you can tell the forum here AHEAD of time what your next brilliant stock move is going to be...instead of telling us of your spectacular profits after they occur, heh John? ( And we know it ain't Pegasus eh? )

(Thu May 07 1998 11:53 - ID#20135)
Thursday May 7, 9:34 am Eastern Time

Dollar slides, led by losses vs resurgent Swiss franc

(Thu May 07 1998 11:55 - ID#226286)
SWP1, I did the same thing....sold all my DROOY last week in the 3 1/4 to 3 5/8 range. Just made my final RANGY buy this morning getting it for 1 1/8. I'm very confident the reason RANGY is so cheap right now is that very few people understand RANGY's holdings, or its 50% NAV discount. It is much easier for me to picture RANGY at $5+ for a 500% gain, than it is to picture DURBAN at $16 or so, although DROOY is a good buy still too.

Rangy's disapointing news recently is well expected. Its nearly impossible to make major improvements to a mine without shutting it down for a while. And as far as exploration goes, you couldn't ask for much better news...adding 2.2 million ounces to reserves in a short period of time, pushing RR's reserves over the 14 million ounce mark. This one is gonna fly; nows the time to buy! Good luck.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:01 - ID#284235)
Recently a Kitcoite was posting portions of the Fed. Res. Act, covering such things as ownership of stock, payment of yearly 6 percent dividend, and payment of surplus each year to the Treasury. I was just reviewing one of my most favorite books titled "Out of Debt, Out of Danger, by the late Congressman from California, Jerry Voorhis, published in 1943.

Chapter 10 is titled "The Federal Reserve Banks and The Credit of The United States". In this chapter Mr. Voorhis sets forth 10 reasons "why the American people should hold every dollar of 'proprietary interest' in, and complete ownership of, the Twelve Central Federal Reserve banks."

Jumping to REASON VI, first paragraph, he states "The original Federal Reserve Act, section 16, paragraph 4, provided that the Federal Reserve Banks should pay a small rate of interest to the Government on all Federal Reserve notes issued. This was, no doubt, done because it was so plain that the money-creating power was being g

(Thu May 07 1998 12:04 - ID#284235)
Would someone PLEASE tell me how to get a complete posting. Seems the few times I try to post something only part gets there. What am I doing wrong?

(Thu May 07 1998 12:08 - ID#342315)
A.Goose re URL
Have you got a good URL for the Swiss Natl Bank? I got one the other day, but it did'nt work. Thanx Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 12:08 - ID#333127)
Hold the key down longer

(Thu May 07 1998 12:08 - ID#269409)
The check is in the mail
Thursday May 7, 11:23 am Eastern Time

Euro helps Europe rethink payments systems--Rivlin

CHICAGO, May 7 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin on Thursday said the switch to the single currency or
euro forced European nations to rethink their payments systems while bank mergers were the driving force behind that trend
in the United States.

``The advent of the euro forces the revamping of the current payments systems to provide for the euro,'' Rivlin told the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's annual banking conference.

The Chicago Fed conference focuses this year focused on ``Payments Systems in the Global Economy.''

Rivlin said preparations for the euro helped ``also revamp other outdated systems'' in Europe while ``in the United States,
mergers'' in the banking industry were providing that incentive.

Rivlin made the point that the shift to a single European currency ``clearly had some emotional overtone'' for the people of
Europe while Americans seem equally attached to writing paper checks as their favorite means of payment.

``I am not predicting the arrival of the checkless society,'' said Rivlin, who called for further cooperation between the Fed and
the private sector to develop initiatives and technology toward more efficient and less costly payments systems.

Rivlin also heads a Fed commission to study the future of the U.S. payments system. The focus of that commission has been on
payments methods such as check processing, as the role of the Fed as provider of cash currency and final settlement services
has not been questioned.

Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow told the conference about the technological progress made by the Fed in the broad
area of the U.S. payments systems that carries ``in an average day about $1.2 trillion'' worth of foreign exchange
transactions,`` and a similar value in daily Fedwire transfers.

``We have an independent, interlinked global financial system with the ability to react to events with incredible speed,''
Moskow said. ``As we saw during the Asian crisis, this high-tech international system can respond with brutal speed and
efficiency in moving money away from potential risks.'

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 12:09 - ID#212323)
FUMMER --I once had partial post problems also
Here is the infallible cure. First, you have to make sure that

(Thu May 07 1998 12:09 - ID#433142)
LGB - Touche. I was just whining regarding my June gold bath. However, reference your comment regarding "odds" with craps vs. poker/blackjack - I beg to differ. But then, I have my system ( which in this case is, ironically, technical ) . I gots a lot to learn 'bout dis market. Thanks for your response, though it was somewhat condescending and sarcastic, you plick.

Straddler - I appreciate your response re: short term/opposite position. Reverse/buy the dips/short/ etc are trading methods which I must better develop to become a more "successful trader." Appreciate your encouragement. Good luck to you too.

ALL: There are a few of us rookies on this site who mostly lurk, but REALLY appreciate your "oldtimer's" experience and insight. I vented today, but pleae forgive this "snot-nose" for his impetuousness. I HATE losing money, dammit. I ask your forbearance and will not post again til gold hits 360. Good luck and God bless.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:13 - ID#365216)
PM down until Y2k gets attention
Might as well do some dollar-cost averaging on the PMs and take
advantage of the current drops in price. When the seriousness of
the Y2K bug becomes common knowledge, we will all be glad we are
aboard the G ( old ) , S ( ilver ) , P ( latinum ) train; buy your ticket when
the price is low, pack your bags, and get ready for the ride of your

Get jiggy with it, Soldier!!

That is all.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:14 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu May 07 1998 12:04
Fummer ( HELP ) ID#284235:

Don't know what is going wrong for you, but I would suggest writing in word processor first and then cutting and pasting into kitco. At least, that way you can repost without major frustration.

If you are using wp, then just drive on. If fails again, then look for control characters that may be affecting kitco.

Hope this helps some.


(Thu May 07 1998 12:15 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re Avid
You and Kuston talked about a formula about tick and trin etc this am. I tried the Avid page, but couldn't find any ref, I couldn't even get to the sign up. Can you help? Thanx a bunch, Charlie

(Thu May 07 1998 12:20 - ID#269409)
@ GC500
Did you just call me a "Plick?" !!!! Hey, I gotta add that to my list. Yes, I annoy even myself with the tone of some of my posts. Sometimes I re-read what I posted, when someone responds and remark to myself "Who IS that LGB Ahole?"

Now as to craps, there is no known "system" that can overcome the Casino's statistical odds / edge, so if you've devised one you're going to be a millionaire shortly when you market it. It would be much tougher for Casino's to cheat or employ countermeasures in Craps, than in Blackjack... which is too bad because in Bjack, an expert player does indeed have a nice statistical edge.... albeit one that can't be exploited since the Casino's will never allow an expert player to have a fair game for more than a few minutes.

I gave up the "Jack" and only play poker now.... Casino's have no incentive to "cheat" in Poker, and thus it's a consistently winnable game ( particularly since the strategic caliber of the other players tends to be so poor..... )

Now if I could just talk myself into derivitaves gambling......

(Thu May 07 1998 12:34 - ID#153102)
You are learning about this on a bulletin board because all true knowledge which does not contribute to Corporate Socialist profit is at thhis time in history perpetuated only by underground channels.

by: Stephanie Hiller c
which appeared in THE YOGA JOURNAL, September/October 1993

Thirty-nine-year-old Jacques Viens had gone home to die.
Seven-eighths of his stomach had been
removed, and the cancer had already spread to the lymph. Since there
seemed to be no hope of
recovery, his doctor offered him a new, experimental treatment called
714X. He tried it. Four months
later he was healthy enough to go hunting, and not long after that he
resumed his job.

Fifty-one-year-old Marcel Caron suffered from intestinal cancer,
but he refused to have his
intestine removed. His wife's breast cancer had been successfully
treated with the same experimental
medicine Viens had used; Caron wanted to try it too. Sixty-five days
after he started treatment, no
cancer was to be found in Caron's body. Eight years later, he was still

These are just two among hundreds of case histories of patients
who recovered using a little-known
approach to cancer and other degenerative diseases that proponents claim
could revolutionize medical
practice. The first person to use it--more than 20 years ago--is still
alive. What would happen if an
effective treatment for cancer were finally found--a non-toxic, natural,
and inexpensive treatment that
could be self-administered at home with a success rate of 75 percent?

It sounds like a dream come true, a miracle. We would all
breathe a little easier, that's for certain.
Many lives would be saved. And a multi-billion-dollar enterprise--the
complex, the most profitable industry in America today--would be forever
transformed. Dozens of giant
pharmaceutical and medical supply companies would be forced out of
business. The "cancer industry"
would be no more.

Little wonder, then that we have heard so little about a
69-year-old French microbiologist who says
he's discovered such a treatment. His name is Gaston Naessens, and he
calls his immune-system therapy

When Naessens' unorthodox treatment methods began yielding
dramatic successes in his native
France, French medical authorities closed his lab, confiscated his
equipment, and heavily fined him for
practicing medicine without a license.

Naessens went to Canada, where, with the help of the prestigious
MacDonald Foundation ( which
for years has funded cancer research ) , he set up a small laboratory
outside Montreal.

There he and his wife, Francoise, continued their careful
research until 1989, when Naessens was
again brought to trial by the medical authorities, accused of
contributing to the death of a woman who did
not recover after using his treatment.

After a long trial, in which numerous testimonies were offered
by patients and physicians using his
approach, he was finally acquitted. ( The full story of the trial is
told in Christopher Bird's book The
Persecution and Trial of Gaston Naessens. ) Now, a handful of doctors
are struggling to make Naessens'
controversial treatments readily available in the United States.

Born in northern France in 1924, the young Naessens was a
precocious inventor who built a small,
functioning automobile-type vehicle when he was only five, followed by a
homemade motorcycle. By the
age of 12 he had constructed a plane that could fly. ( His mother burned
it to prevent him from flying it,
however. )

When his university studies of physics, chemistry, and biology
were interrupted by World War II,
Naessens earned an unofficial diploma from the Union Scientifique
Francaise in Lilles, where most of his
university professors had fled to escape the Nazi invasion. ( He never
bothered to pursue its formal
equivalent after De Gaulle restructured France, a decision that would
later lead to accusations that he
lacked a college degree. ) With his mother's support, Naessens continued
his studies on his own. While
pursuing the study of hematology, he observed "something moving in the
blood," but the particle was too
small to be identified by the optical methods he had at his disposal.
Fascinated, Naessens enlisted the
help of optical specialists in Germany in developing a stronger

Called the somatoscope, the microscope itself was a significant
scientific achievement. Using a
unique combination of incandescent and ultraviolet rays, it allowed him
to look at living blood ( without
first fixing and staining it, which is the usual method ) at a
magnification of 30,000 times with a
resolution of 150 angstroms--a capacity that has not been exceeded to
Using this unique method of microscopy, Naessens was able to
study what he had glimpsed
previously but could not identify: motile microorganisms in the blood
plasma. Naessens observed a
number of different forms of these microorganisms but came to the
conclusion that they were all stages
of the development of one subcellular entity he named the "somatid."

Naessens found these somatids everywhere--in the sap of plants,
in the blood of animals, even in
apparently lifeless organic matter like ashes. Culturing them and
observing the somatid cycle, he
discovered that somatids are resistant to acids and bases as well as
heat and that they cannot be cut with a

For example, they withstood 2 megarads of radiation capable of
killing any living thing, as well as
carbonization temperatures of more than 200 C. He concluded that they
are indestructible. Recently, a
faculty member of the University of California at Davis, showed me the
somatids in my own blood on a
TB screen, using Naessens' "condenser," an attachment he developed that
converts a regular microscope
into one resembling his invention.

Lots of bright little bodies were busily circulating around the
red blood cells, platelet, and
lymphocytes in my blood, their motion not unlike that of swarming bees.
Cell division cannot take place
without these busy, glowing bodies, Naessens postulates, because in the
course of its cycle the somatid
releases the growth hormone trephone, which enables cells to divide and

Naessens goes even further--he believes the electrically
charged, luminous somatid is the original
spark of life, the pinpoint where energy condenses into matter.
According to Naessens, the somatid
represents the manifestation of cosmic energy in a tiny, moving dot of
physicality. The pleomorphic
cycle of this tiny entity is what explains how degenerative diseases
occur, Naessens says.

Such diseases, which include not only cancer and AIDS but
rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, multiple
sclerosis, and any viral or degenerative disease such as chronic
fatigue, are the least understood of all the
illnesses of modern times. While doctors' prescriptions may ease the
pain, modern medicine has been
unable to truly cure any of them.

In these diseases, the immune system apparently malfunctions.
It either weakens and becomes
unable to resist opportunistic disease, as in cancer or AIDS, or it
doubles its vigilance, attacking the body
itself and producing diseases like rheumatoid arthritis. Holistic
medicine urges that we approach these
diseases, which are frequently attributed to environmental toxicity, by
rejuvenating the body's defenses.
Holistic treatments, like the traditional methods from which they
evolved, consist of appropriate diet,
exercise, and support plant medicines to replenish our depleted reserves
and restore strength.

Naessens' theories align with the tenets of holistic practice.
But unlike most holistic healers,
Naessens is able to provide scientific documentation and evidence of
what traditional and Naturopathic
approaches have suggested all along--that disease represents imbalance
in the ecology of the whole

In healthy individuals, says Naessens, the somatid moves through
a three stage cycle that produces
the right amount of the growth hormone trephone to keep cells
reproducing at the appropriate rate. ( This
growth hormone was first identified by Nobel laureate Alexis Carrel, who
did not, however, link it to a
subcellular entity in the blood. ) When the body is stressed or weak,
however, the somatid shifts into a
longer macrocycle that features 13 additional stages, including forms
that resemble bacteria, viruses, and
yeast cells.

Other scientists have seen some of these forms in the blood of
cancer patients and have posited a
bacterial and, later, a viral cause of cancer. However, according to
these theories ( which have not been
confirmed by scientific evidence ) , the disease carrier has always been
thought to enter the body from
somewhere outside, as germs do.

In Naessens' view, these microbial forms are simple phases of
the somatid in its extended cycle. In
this amplified cycle, the somatid produces excessive quantities of
growth hormone, creating the
abnormally rapid cell growth we call cancer. Naessens is not the first
scientist to describe polymorphic
entities in the blood.

In the early 1800s, Antoine Bechamp, like Guenther Enderlein and
many other pioneers, using far
more primitive microscopes than Naessens', perceived microzymas, or
"little bodies," which were
thought to be fundamental elements of cells and whole living organisms.
When the organism is disturbed
by a serious event, Bechamp theorized, the symbiotic relationship
between the microzymas and the body
becomes imbalanced, leading to disease. In this view, illness
originates within the body.

The scientific establishment rejected Bechamp's work in favor of
that of Pasteur, who was
convinced that disease is caused by bacteria entering the body from
without. Pasteur's work, which had
wide application to a host of infectious diseases, led to the important
discovery of immunization.

Bechamp's theory was rejected, and germ theory became a sacred
tenet in medicine, despite the
fact that a number of diseases do not appear to conform to that
pattern. On his deathbed, Pasteur was
said to disavow his own theories and exclaim, "He is right. The terrain
is all. The microbe is nothing!"
( He was referring to French physiologist Claude Bernard, who had
disputed Pasteur on the basis that the
microbe meant much less than the condition of the whole. )

In Naessens' theory, the microcycle of the somatid is held at
three stages by blood inhibitors, which
consist of certain digestive enzymes, hormones, and minerals. Poor diet
and stress apparently reduce the
number of blood inhibitors, allowing the somatid to commence its
extended 13-phase macrocycle. The
presence of these extra somatid forms signifies the beginning of
degenerative disease before it has
manifested itself in the body.

Hence the somatid theory has a valuable diagnostic application,
which, in combination with other
factors, makes it possible to diagnose and even treat the disease before
it takes hold. The difference
between healthy cells and cancer cells is their rate of growth. The
somatid macrocycle generates a
tremendous increase in the number of somatids, releasing more and more
growth hormone into the body
and stimulating the rapid multiplication of cells we call cancer.

The increasing mass of disorganized cells secrete what Naessens
has called the "co-cancerogenic
factor," a substance that allows the cancer to withdraw essential
nitrogen derivatives from the patient's
cells and also begins to paralyze the immune system, radically
undermining the patient's ability to combat
the disease. The cancer does not take long to metastasize ( spread to
new locations ) throughout the body.
Since the usual orthodox methods of treating cancer involve cutting out,
burning, or poisoning the
cancerous tumors, cancer's potential to metastasize has kept everyone

A systemic treatment for the disease would enable the body to
again perform its normal function of
removing cancer cells, which in healthy bodies takes place almost
daily. According to proponents of the
approach, Naessens' 714X ( the name is alpha numerological reference to
the letters in his own name ) is
such a treatment. It is distributed rapidly throughout the body by the
unique method of intralymphatic
injection. Doctors have said such injections are physiologically
impossible, due to the structure of the
lymphatic system--yet thousands of people have now used the treatment
with encouraging results.

714X is an aqueous solution ( trimethylbicyclonitr aminoheptane
co ) consisting of camphor, mineral
salts, and nitrogen salts, which is injected once a day for a 21-day
cycle. The treatment is then repeated
until the progress of the disease is reversed and finally stopped.

The salts help to liquefy, cleanse and clear the lymph of toxins
accumulated during the disease,
thereby reviving the body's defenses, which go back to work to fight the
cancer. The nitrogen actually
feeds the cancer cells so they do not drain the body's nitrogen. The
camphor carries the nitrogen to the
cells and impedes the formation of the "co-cancerogenic factor," again
stimulating the body's own ability
to fight the disease.

( Camphor is widely used by village people throughout India to
treat a wide variety of illnesses,
from bronchitis to diarrhea. According to Jahnavi Morton, an ayurvedic
practitioner who studies under
Vasant Lad in New Mexico, camphor is used for "opening the flow of
prana, bringing clarity to the
mind." ) Unlike allopathic medicine's "magic bullet" approach to
illness, the treatment does not do
anything directly to the malfunctioning somatid, nor does it attack the
symptoms of the disease.

All it does is stimulate the body's ability to regain its
balance and defeat the cancer on its own. A
healthier organism produces more blood inhibitors, slowing down the
somatid cycle. As a result, the
amount of growth hormone ( responsible for cell division ) produced by the
somatids begins to decline, so
cancer cells do not multiply as quickly. Meanwhile, the body's ability
to destroy the existing cancer cells
increases. The cancer does not spread. The tumor begins to regress.
The body regains its natural
balance. The progress of the disease is reversed until it disappears.

Among the growing number of physicians who are recognizing the
efficacy of 714X is Dietmar
Schildwaechter, M.D., Ph.D., former faculty member of the University of
Pennsylvania School of
Medicine who serves as an International Medical Consultant in
Washington, D.C. and directs a cancer
rehabilitation center in his native Germany.

He came across Naessens' treatment in 1990 through one of his
own patients, who showed marked
improvement when, unbeknownst to him, she began taking it. When he
found out what she was taking,
he began looking into the unconventional treatment himself. He
"realized that Naessens had discovered
and identified what others had only partially seen."

"Gaston Naessens' discoveries," Schildwaechter writes,
"represent a brand new dimension in
medicine. His recognition of the somatids as the basic form of life and
his furnishing a microscopic
means to monitor their cycle are nothing short of revolutionary. His
method, offering an instant and
highly refined way of assessing every human being's state of health and
their response to therapy, is
second to none."

Schildwaechter is now the Chief Investigator of the
Institutional Review Board ( IRB ) that is
documenting the successes of 714X with the goal of obtaining FDA
approval for its use in the United
States as an experimental treatment. Naessens' treatment continues to
be available by doctor's
prescription, so long as the patient is willing to become informed and
sign a consent form for the
administration of an unapproved drug.

How are we to know that this is not just another crackpot
cure?" Most alternative treatments lack
the validation on which Americans have come to rely, the stamp of
approval by the American Medical
Association, the National Cancer Institute, and the FDA. The august
bodies of medical research have
demonstrated a reluctance to investigate therapies that have not emerged
from their own labs.

Of the 63 treatments on the "list of unapproved methods"
published by the American Cancer
Society, over 40 percent have never even been investigated by the
medical establishment, writes Ralph
Moss, author of The Cancer Industry. "Merely including a scientist's
name on the list of unproven
methods has the effect of damning that researcher's work and putting a
tag of quackery on his efforts."
Gaston Naessens ( G N 24, a completely different compound, ) is number 63
on that list.

The 1994 Canadian Investigational and Emergency Drug List
officially includes 714X for
Anti-Cancer and Immune Related Disease Therapy. ( Drug Information
Center, Ontario College of
Pharmacists, Toronto Ontario. )

For more informaiton or to pursue this therapy you may contact:

WRITERS and Research, Inc.
4810 Saint Paul Boulevard
Rochester, NY 14617
716 544 2288

(Thu May 07 1998 12:40 - ID#287114)
Real Cheap
Scrap metal prices are real cheap...I keep looking for GOLD to make the list.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:46 - ID#333127)
IT is cheap, the banks don't want it, the producers don't want it,governments everywhere hate it, The only people who like it are on this site, although someone somewhere keeps buying it, wish I knew who and why.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 12:48 - ID#212323)
Uh, Rube, that would be me. The reason is a private matter. Sorry.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:53 - ID#368244)

CAU closes most of hedge position and

reduces debt by 9 millon.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:53 - ID#31868)
rube, I am standing right next to AragornIII buying with one large hand, the other is
on my bottle of Cuervo, and it is a private matter.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:54 - ID#433142)
LGB/gambling/OTHERS-please skip
All: Sorry to muddle this gold net with gambling/LGB discourse but, in view of recent gold action, I'm inclined to change subject . . . to get my mind off of PM topics - sigh . . .

LGB - no dah, poker/blackjack have statistical advantages for player versus slots/roulette/"backarahhh"/craps, etc. I've made a few bucks counting cards and moving from BJ table to BJ table before being "made". ( Haven't had to put on a Groucho moustache yet to get into a casino, so I must not be much of a threat ) .

Craps, however, is similar to futures trading in that you have to have the "deep pockets" to ride out the dips awaiting for the big run ( surge ) . Marginal exposure as the roll begins. "Crap out" ( tight stops ) , "press the bet" on a warm roll ( add contracts ) , "double up on numbers placed", ( pyramid profits ) . . . all have a similarity to trading, which is essentially GAMBLING. Technicals/fundamentals, blah, blah, blah . . . it's all a crap shoot - and the HOUSE, as you certainly know, has a distict "inside" advantage.

'Nuff said - good luck with your trading.

( "Put $20 on the come line and press my #8 - come on SHOOTER, hit the point!" )

(Thu May 07 1998 12:55 - ID#269409)
@ Mozel
Mozel you total A**hole.... Normally I would embrace free speech of whatever type, but you're extremely lengthy "Quack medicine" post, not only has no place here, but could be dangerous to any reader who eschews genuine treatment in favor of garbage like this. The "cancer insustry" would LOVE to find a cure you moron.

That's why EMND went up 300% in one day on news thaty'd had a potential breakthrough. Unless you've had the 12 years of continuing education and have devoted your life's work to research, peddle the ignorant snake oil stuff somewhere else.

Incidentally, one reason I feel so strongly about this, is that my mother had Uterine and Ovarian cancer, came CLOSE to chasing "Quack" remedies, similar to those peddled by your French pal. However, thankfully, with much encouragement by many of us, she went with the "latest" REAL medical breakthroughs in treatment, and chemo combinations and was subsequently cured of her "incurable" cancer.

(Thu May 07 1998 12:58 - ID#224149)
Its a Bouncy day
Was about to post about Gold But ---Rumor has it that some topless girls are walking in the neighborhood --Away to see nature mmmmmm

(Thu May 07 1998 12:59 - ID#335184)
John Disney
Minny Mouse may be premature, re "when", Au June slides to -$301 close. Big difference betwixt when & "if". But how long & how deep is son of Mighty Mouse looking for the S&P down draft to last ? Oleman thinks it will be over by Fri., presenting hugh buy, while Jeil @ 05/06/98 @ 21:27 has "Home Made Chart" proving that it is a down hill solomn through Dec.!!
I know you have declared that you defecate where you please, like the 900 lb. silver back that you are, investing in all markets, backwards & forwards, & further that you need, nor delight, in others volunteering to hold your coat, but I can not resist expressing my "gafaux" over your spartan retort to the piss ants from the peanut galleries on the sidelines who don't talk about real trades, but only throw feces from their padded cells about the latest proof that some of their colleagues are running the asylum !



(Thu May 07 1998 13:00 - ID#233199)
PLEASE! Wait until I have bought in before you tell everybody!

And then, of course, tell everybody!

Seriously, what will it take for RANGY's evaluation to be recognized?
"Merely" a higher Gold price or mor e than that?

I don't care if it's a great deal if other don't catch on sooner or later. After all owning a share of a mine mine isn't really much use if the stock price stalls for no "good" reason.

Thanks, I'm waiting to see if the price drops a bit more ( foolish me? )

(Thu May 07 1998 13:01 - ID#266105)
@the blond market

Gold is sorta tanking, howz'bout some the more sedate

instruments out there, I'm talking CATs, LIONs, TIGRs,

LEAPs, LEPRDs and the like, a rather serene arena where

the only sinking of teeth to be done is in Polident.

The holding period of return can be increased though,

through leverage, and getting the better vertical

spreads obtained through member firms.

Next, perpetual consols.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:03 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu May 07 1998 12:34
mozel ( @Cancer ) ID#153102:
Copyright  1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You are learning about this on a bulletin board because all true knowledge which does not contribute to Corporate Socialist profit is at thhis time in history perpetuated only by underground channels.

Thanks for sharing Mozel. Knowledge is power, knowledge is built on information, information evolves from data. Thanks.


(Thu May 07 1998 13:04 - ID#269409)
Silver up 2 cents..... Gold in the tank .... Palladium down 9% wow!

(Thu May 07 1998 13:05 - ID#286234)
Sorry some of you have had problems with ICQ. I have used ICQ message mode and sometimes chatted with friends for what seems like two years without a single problem.

I encourage any of you IRC experts, however, to set up chat rooms, POLARBEAR mentioned he might work on setting one up. It would mean more choice, more bandwidth, more threads. I have no experience with IRC.

If you already have ICQ up and running, I suggest you keep it because you don't need to publish your email address to communicate privately with other Kitcoites. All you need to publish is your ICQ number. Well, I
suppose a hacker could determine your email address, but hackers can do anything.

Meanwhile I will open Kitco Bar & Grill in the evening, when I see a lot of people online. Remember if KB&G is closed, you can always chat directly and simultaneously with two or three people if they are on your contact list.

I still lurk here, but as some of you KB&G denizens know I have been spending more time on my business.

Thank you.
See ya later, and don't take no wooden nickels.

go gold

(Thu May 07 1998 13:06 - ID#358318)
Aragorn III (FUMMER --I once had partial post problems...
Funniest post of the day ( ROTFL ) ... even funnier than Ted's jokes
I find posting reliable if I edit text directly into the message window, or compose it using a plain text editor such as notepad. Try pasting into notepad first and checking for odd characters. Also I find "post comment directly" more reliable than via "Preview". If I do preview, I go back to the entry screen and post directly from there.

By the way, here is some astounding news about the forthcoming gold bull:
According to

(Thu May 07 1998 13:10 - ID#153102)
@Mr Censor
You are not the only one who would suppress free speech on medical and scientific research. Charles Pixley is paying the price of time in a federal prison for speech on this treatment. His family can ill afford his absence, financially or otherwise.

Yes, 300% gain in a few days. The incentive to suppress truth that does not contribute to further grants for a research career or a new pharmaceutical money maker is very strong. There is a Cancer Industry whose financial interests use government for protection. If you want the greater truth about the War on Cancer than just your own family experience, I can direct you to the reports.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:13 - ID#31876)
With What the Dealer Pays for Shipping, etc.

Here's what my coin shop quoted a few minutes ago, and I'm
buying...$318.66 for one oz. American Eagles. This price is
for 10 or more.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:13 - ID#317193)
Disaster or Opportunity??
I see opportunity running down the street- almost to my house. $294-5 spot please! I will say thank if you do.


(Thu May 07 1998 13:14 - ID#206358)
inflation's list....indonesia...!
Thursday, May 7, 1998


33.09 PCT

Jakarta - The inflation rate in April was registered at 4.7 percent while that from
January to April, calculated based on changes in the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) of April
against that of December 1997, reached 33.09 percent.

According to a report of the consumer price statistics division of the Central Statistics
Agency ( BPS ) , made available to ANTARA here Wednesday, the 33.09 percent inflation
rate between January and April is attributable to index increases in all spending groups in 44
cities in the country.

The inflation rate for April was much higher than that of April 1997 ( 0.56 percent ) , but
was lower than last March ( 5.4 percent ) , the report said.

The biggest CPI increase was recorded in the index for the group of ready-to-serve
food, cigarettes and tobacco ( 7.68 percent ) , followed by the group of food ( 5.91 percent ) ,
the group of health ( 5.29 percent ) , the group of transportation and communications ( 4.94
percent ) , the group of clothing ( 4.34 percent ) , and the group of housing ( 2.29 percent ) , the
report said, adding that the smallest increase was registered in the group of education ( 1.5
percent ) .

The report further said that of the 44 cities used as the base for calculating the inflation,
the highest inflation rate was found in Ternate ( 11.84 percent ) and the lowest in Batam ( 1.51
percent ) .

"None of these 44 cities has contributed to deflation," the report went on.

It added that the inflation rate target set by the government for calendar year 1998 was
47 percent, and for fiscal year 1998-99, 17 percent.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:19 - ID#339274)
Thanks for sharing the info.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:19 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, whatever is going on with gold today is
a ridiculous deviation from the trend. I agree with you.
As of today, palladium is still overvalued at least $30,
but gold is undervalued at least $15, just a thought...

(Thu May 07 1998 13:21 - ID#28994)
A Goose
There is no such thing as a socialist profit.
Never has been, Never will be.
Tax and spend.. yes

(Thu May 07 1998 13:29 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
I really do think it's option expiry tomorrow and the need to make sure those calls are not exercised. My best guess.


(Thu May 07 1998 13:31 - ID#238422)
My mother got the same problem as your mother had.
Could you please provide your E-mail address,
mine is Would like to ask you
a couple of questions. Thanks.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:32 - ID#270236)
Gold bull.
Looks like I was wrong again. I would be interested in others'
postmortem on our aborted bull. I think it started last week as
a technical correction and then the chaos coming out of Europe
over the C.B. chief's appointment allowed the professional short
sellers to renew the bear case of more massive central bank selling.
Anyway, I think we'll go below $278. So that probably means it will
turn around tomorrow and be at $320 by the end of next week. Hope so.
Judging from the uptick in short lease rates, it looks like there has
been more short selling. I don't think a central bank has been selling
because that is usually preceded by a spike in the short lease rate.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:32 - ID#284235)
Fummer strikes again-he hopes.
Thanks to A.Goose, Aragorn III and rube for the suggestions. Love your sense of humor Aragorn III. So let's give it another try.

From the beginning. Recently a Kitcoite was posting portions of the Fed. Res. Act, covering such things as ownership of stock, payment of yearly 6 percent dividend, and payment of surplus each year to the Treasury. I was just reviewing one of my most favorite books titled "Out of Debt, Out of Danger, by the late Congressman from California, Jerry Voorhis, published in 1943.

Chapter 10 is titled "The Federal Reserve Banks and The Credit of The United States." In this chapter Mr. Voorhis sets forth 10 reasons "why the American people should hold every dollar of 'proprietary interest' in, and complete ownership of, the Twelve Central Federal Reserve banks."

Jumping to REASON VI, first paragraph, he states "The original Federal Reserve Act, section 16, paragraph 4, provided that the Federal Reserve Banks should pay a small rate o

(Thu May 07 1998 13:35 - ID#287129)
Gold Prediction on Art Bell show
While I still reserve final judgment on the validity of "Remote Viewing," there was in interesting program several nights ago on the Art Bell show. The guest was Major Ed Dames. During a commercial break, someone apparently sent a fax noting that gold normally goes down when stocks go up ( and vice versa ) ; but that gold's recent climb to $315 took place while the stock market was also going up.

Art Bell responded by saying, "Now, that means somebody, Ed, knows something because normally as the Market rises the price of gold will fall but now, conversely...for some strange reason...even though the market seems to be doing relatively fact, stellar...people are beginning to buy gold. That means somebody knows something."

Ed Dames said: "Art, I think you're going to see the price of gold go up to $2,000 dollars an ounce before too long."

Bell: "$2,000 an ounce."

Dames: "Or even higher."

Bell: "That is not investment advice folks. We don't give that, but that is a prediction."

You can draw your own conclusions as to the veracity of the prediction.


(Thu May 07 1998 13:35 - ID#284235)
Forget it
I tried. And me and the word processor don't get along. You'll have to go find a copy of Mr. Voorhis' book. I apologize.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:36 - ID#358318)
Y2K alert: report coming via Reuters
Reuters will release a special report on the Year 2000
computer bug and its effects on the U.S. economy and
the Federal Reserve on Thursday
This could affect gold...

(Thu May 07 1998 13:38 - ID#246224)
Paladium = tankage (-32)
Gold not= tankage ( -3 ) . LGB Puuuuhleeease, let's not bury Auntie Maude until she's passed on, OK???

(Thu May 07 1998 13:41 - ID#317193)
Did Dames or Bell mention ANOTHER? LOL
Couldn't resist.


(Thu May 07 1998 13:44 - ID#31868)
The Panic of 1999
by Declan McCullagh, Lev Grossman and Steve Baldwin April 24, 1998

The most disturbing part of the Year 2000 thing is that the more you know about it, the more spooked you get. Recently we've been talking to programmers who are predicting -- and preparing for -- severe social problems when computers touch 1-1-00. And it's even giving steely, cold-blooded Team Netly the heebie-jeebies.
Rick Cowles, who spent 17 years programming for electric utilities and should know enough to ignore the hype, is in fact quietly preparing for the worst. "I'm looking out for my family, doing an assessment of our needs as a family. Food stocks for a period of time. We already had a portable electric generator," he says. Cowles has decided not to head for the hills, though. He lives in rural New Jersey in a small town he hopes will be safe if a computer crash ( or the threat of one ) causes a run on the banks. But other people we respect have taken even more drastic steps.

Paul Milne is a former commodities broker who moved to a 10-acre farm in the rolling hills of southern Virginia. He expects major cities to implode when transportation networks fail and food shortages arise. "I can live indefinitely -- completely self-sufficiently -- for the next 25 years," he says. ( That would be, what, only five years if Team Netly suddenly came for a visit? ) "The real danger is the unpreparedness of individuals. If every family had one year of food, you wouldn't have one tenth the problem. Hungry people will do desperate things."

Which may mean self-defense. Tim May, a retired Intel engineer and cypherpunks cofounder, recently added an AR-15 Bushmaster "Shorty" XM15 E2S carbine to his growing gun collection. "What I'm doing is anticipating the economic implications that may happen in 1999," he says. "Sometime in late 1998 or early 1999 it will be realized that we aren't going to make the deadline."

But according to Bill Ulrich, author of "The Year 2000 Software Crisis, Challenge of the Century" and president of Tactical Systems Group, a Y2K consulting company, irresponsible fearmongers are stoking the fires of Y2K panic. The computer bug is the perfect plot device for millennialists, survivalists and end-of-the-world types who use it to whip up hysteria. "Unfortunately, fear-mongers always seem to be better at using the Net than voices of moderation," he says.

Indeed, Ulrich believes that The Panic could be worse than The Bug, unless trusted societal institutions take a more active role in educating the public on what the actual, less life-threatening dimensions of the Y2K crisis really are: "Large companies -- for example, Boeing -- have a lot of influence regionally, and they need to reach out at the community level, to hold workshops for small business, the Rotary Clubs and small local governments to educate them on what needs to be done so that communities can band together at the grassroots level."

So what would you do if you were a Y2K programmer facing a ticking clock? Head for the hills with your AK-47 or buckle down and ride out the storm? Choose swiftly: Only 617 days are left.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:48 - ID#20347)
I've been looking at weekly charts of various gold stocks ( HL, ABX, CDE ) , the XAU ( XAU.X ) , and the june futures contract for gold ( GC98M ) at It looks as if today's action in gold and gold stocks is a test of an upward trendline established back at the January lows. Could someone with a more sophisticated charting program confirm this? Any comments would be appreciated.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:48 - ID#358318)
USG intervenes in Chicken Standard
Secret US plan to undermine the gold dinar/dirham Chicken
Standard by subsidising the sale of $20 million of
poultry exports to markets in the Middle East

(Thu May 07 1998 13:48 - ID#269409)
@ Oris
I can't e mail you from the business front, but you can e mail one of my home accounts at "". I can tell you she's 11 years + cancer free, after heavy duty, mixed chemo treatments and some newer semi experimental ( at the time ) type hormone treatments...

but not being an Oncologist, I'd be extremely reluctant to advocate ANY kind of treatment other than finding the best, most knowledgable experts in the field, and getting a variety of opinions. I do know enough about the treatments to know that each individual is completely different, and a case unto itself.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:51 - ID#20167)
If you don't like what congress is doing, you can vote for or against
their actions daily. Check out

(Thu May 07 1998 13:53 - ID#290118)
Survival of The Goldest
Agreed - there are other sites and newsgroups re survival, etc.
But do share nuggets with the rest of us.
Here is my contribution.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:54 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Tpher -- That also was in my posting yesterday. Why else would todays numbers be important.

(Thu May 07 1998 13:55 - ID#341189)
share trading has been nearly dead today
Until someone just picked up 300,000 shs of ABX

(Thu May 07 1998 13:59 - ID#57232)
Gold down, markets down
All: Any info on China devaluation? Are the markets behaving this way simply because of fears of rising interest rates? A significant interest rate hike is very unlikely.

So far, I have found nothing to indicate that China has devalued. Anyone know black market exchange rates for the Chinese Yuan? Vronsky, I agree with you that the staying power of the Japanese markets is phenomenal. But I think they had some help from the AG and RR PPT.

Heard about the new BOJ suicide -- that makes me think that problems normally hidden are coming out into the open -- that may be good news or bad news for Japan. Hard to tell. Good news if this is a new sign of openness. Bad news if it just the tip of the iceberg. Either way, Japan is still at risk if China devalues.

I am no match for Oldman when it comes to experience. Mixing technical with fundamental, I would guess that China will do their best not to devalue until the Indonesian or Japanese situation and the tremors in the US/World markets diminish. If so, Oldman may be right that the US markets will recover soon. Interesting this time that the markets are slowly dropping, with no 'twitches' down, as we had in the past. Bullish? On the other hand, I have noticed index volume increasing with dropping price, a bearish sign. I think it all hinges on SEAsia.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:03 - ID#252150)
Polarbear@I've bought some RANGY lately & am considering buying more
I am worried though, that a dip in POG to 250 is possible & also sub 300 for an extended period of time. My main fear is that the Swiss cannot stand to have the SF so strong & may resort to desperate measures to weaken it. In your opinion, could RANGY survive for 6-12 months if this very negative scenario occurs?

(Thu May 07 1998 14:05 - ID#284235)
encouraged by Trinovant 13:06
Thanks for the advice but believe me notepad and word processors are just a shade above my expertise. If everyone will humor me I will try one more time.

Recently a Kitcoite was posting portions of the Fed. Res. Act, covering such things as ownership of stock, payment of yearly 6 persent dividend, and payment of surplus each year to the Treasury. I was just reviewing one of my most favorite books titled "Out of Debt, Out of Danger", by the late Congressman from California, Jerry Voorhis, published in 1943.

Chapter 10 is titled "The Federal Reserve Banks and The Credit of The United States." In this chapter Mr. Voorhis sets forth 10 reasons "why the American people should hold every dollar of 'proprietary interest' in, and complete ownership of, the Twelve Central Reserve banks."

Jumping to REASON VI, first paragraph, he states, "The original Federal Reserve Act, section 16, paragraph 4, provided that the Federal Reserve Banks should pay a small rate of interest to the Government on all Federal Reserve notes issued. This was, no doubt, done because it was so plain that the money-creating power was being given away by Congress to these private banks. BUT BY ONE METHOD OR ANOTHER THIS REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN AVOIDED, AND NO SUCH INTEREST HAS EVER BEEN PAID." ( caps by Fummer ) .

In the second paragraph Mr. Voorhis writes "Again the original Federal Reserve Act, section 7, paragraph 1, required the payment of a franchise tax by the Federal Reserve Banks to the Government in the form of the annual delivery to the Treasury of all surplus over and above the guaranteed 6-percent dividend on the stock. THIS PROVISION WAS REPEALED IN 1933, SO THAT NO FRANCHISE TAX IS NOW REQUIRED." ( caps by Fummer )

I have no record of the exact date, but the above franchise tax provision was reinstituted sometime in the late 1960s or early 1970s, and ever since the Fed has been paying its' surplus to the Treasury.

Remember now, Mr. Voorhis was referring throughout to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

While I'm on the subject, and without elaboration, one of Mr. Voorhis' more interesting propositions was that "A VERY LARGE PART OF OUR PRESENT PUBLIC DEBT ( in 1943-Fummer ) NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN PUBLIC DEBT AT ALL. IT IS DEBT-THAT-OUGHT-NOT-TO-BE-DEBT."

Sorry to have been so longwinded and appreciate everyones patience with me. Sure hope this hits the screen ( and not the fan ) . Fummer

(Thu May 07 1998 14:05 - ID#290118)
Talk about being Prepared
A friend of mine has, over the past couple years, chewed up a few hundred hours talking about the DETAILS of the prophecies, asteroids, Y2K, Klinton Kapers, etc.
I ask him what has he DONE about all this. How much food does he have laid in?
He doesn't get out much - must stay home and keep an eye on the markets and be ready to phone his broker.
His last shopping list which he had me get for him included:
4 cartons of cigs, 2 bags of candy, 2 cans of kippered snacks,
1 bottle of salad dressing, 1 head of lettuce, etc.
POINT BEING - one week's supply when he should be getting CASES!
So many people live day to day - figuring they can go to the grocery tomorrow if they need something.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:06 - ID#20347)
Just located your previous post. Thanks.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 14:09 - ID#24135)
Every writer needs an editor..
For Leaky Gum Boot
( your recent post to my brother oris
excepted .... )

If you could eliminate
1. your endless boasting
2. your self serving drivel
3. your pointless misleading observations
4. your attacks on others that contribute seriously
5. your half-smart sarcasm
6. your assumption that people really care
what you THINK unless you have numbers to
back it up.

... Your postings would improve a lot.
.... But of course you would have nothing left to
..... there's nothing worth less than rubber with
a hole in it.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:10 - ID#284235)
Thanks to Trinovant
I followed your advice, editing on the entry screen and posting directly from there.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:12 - ID#57232)
USA Gold Report worth reading
All: Please read USA Gold's report today. Apparently 'a Chinese official' has written that the Yuan will be devalued again in the second half. I did not know it had been devalued already. The implication is that the devaluation of the Yuan, or its pending devaluation is the reason why the Japanese Yen is getting 'hammered'.

I maintain my bearish market and gold equities market stance until we get an 'all clear' message of some kind regarding the devaluation of the Chinese Yaun.

Anyone have more information?

(Thu May 07 1998 14:13 - ID#317193)
Congrats. You can now graduate to the second grade. Can I sit by you? Isn't learning this stuff "fun".


(Thu May 07 1998 14:20 - ID#269409)
@ RJ....Silver vs. Gold
If we look back a couple months when Gold was drifting below $300, even in the face of Kitco protestations that $300 was a firm support level, and yet Silver was showing strength in the face of this....than today's activity might be considered...... "ABBA"

Lurker 777
(Thu May 07 1998 14:24 - ID#317247)
Now BELOW the 100 day moving average!

The critical level for Gold right now, in concert with the charts of previous market bottoms on this page, is the 20 week Moving Average. Right now, on May 1, that MA stands at $US 298.58.

Another: how many days was that? 5-10-100-1000 Hmmmmm

(Thu May 07 1998 14:25 - ID#269409)
@ Disssperson
What, no insults directed at my mother? Normally I just ignore you, I think I'll continue more of the same.......some indian tribes believed that a man's greatness could be measured by the greatness of his adversaries. If you're one of my adversaries, my stature has diminished to less than zero.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 14:26 - ID#24135)
ignore the yapping mongrels
For Mozel ..
Interesting stuff

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 14:31 - ID#24135)
Relax.... Nonentity
.. Please Leaky
You aren't my advisary.. I wouldn't
even have you for my gardener.
Get back to non existance .. where
you belong

(Thu May 07 1998 14:32 - ID#342315)
SDRer re your post 3/29
This was in re World Bank "Private Sector" for special info. Your recommendation was to register with some "importance"!! In view of the "Private Sector" designation, I need to email you. Mine is how about emailing me yours. Thanx Charlie

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 14:34 - ID#212323)
Trinovant, Fummer, and Tol -cool- One...
Trin and Fum... honestly, I laughed hysterically at my own good-natured fun... infallible ( ! ) ...

Don't let Tolerant fool you. He's not standing beside me buying gold...HE'S TRYING TO CUT IN LINE! Bart, change his handle to ImpatientOne. Hey bud, I've got a case of that 'magical powder,' so now I can fashion my very own Jell-O sea anchor. No procedure was found in Popular Mechanics, so I'll just dump it astern and toss a rope end into the vicinity. Will work, no?

(Thu May 07 1998 14:36 - ID#333126)
euro as a reserve currency

( needs registration, but it's free )

not a bad emu roundup at :- )

(Thu May 07 1998 14:39 - ID#194311)
Ahh yup everything's just honky-dory....ticktockticktock
Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan is calling for greater
discipline in interbank lending -- possibly through higher capital
charges on lending banks -- to help avert future disruptions to world
financial and payments systems. He was speaking before the annual
conference on Bank Structure and Competition; he made no comments on the
U.S. economy.

Lurker 777
(Thu May 07 1998 14:40 - ID#317247)
Hmmm, Starting to see a pattern here!
Oldman ( whither gold? ) ID#186147:
If gold closes below $301, its still a bear market. I sell bears and buy bulls. Everyone is free to disagree with me. After all, its your money. .

(Thu May 07 1998 14:41 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - yes it will work. However, do not use
grape flavor, it will attract Penguins, nasty little creatures who leave disgusting spots on deck which are difficult to clean.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 14:41 - ID#24135)
My son the soothsayer
for Newtron
My son thinks the dow will move
higher .. I believe his target is
9800. He phoned today to confirm that
I take calls with him. He is one of
those guys that plays puts/calls on
the s&p. He is pretty good at it so I
just go along and dont ask questions.
He love EW. I hate them.
Too complicated for a silverback..
I prefer bananas ..

(Thu May 07 1998 14:42 - ID#57232)
Lets lay off the personal attacks!
LGB, all: What we need is information, not dissention. There is enough of that in Indonesia. What we need is something on the Chinese Yuan devaluation - either pending or done. I will look more when I have time. Jin?

Anyone know the black market price of the Yuan? Still 7% differential, or is it more now?

Are the Indonesian riots spreading to mainland China?

My intuitive guess about this is that this gold deflationary episode is more likely to be of similar duration as the Oct 97 situation. But -- drops below 280/oz will be very short-lived, if at all.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:43 - ID#288155)
JTF--This is a repost of story Donald caught about yuan you-know-what..
Donald's post ( great catch Donald! )

"Thursday May 7, 2:41 am Eastern Time

China economist denies predicting pressure on yuan

BEIJING, May 7 ( Reuters ) - Yi Gang, deputy secretary-general of the monetary policy committee of China's central bank, on Thursday denied he co-authored an academic paper that predicted increased pressure for a devaluation of the yuan in the second half of 1998.

Yi, contacted by telephone, said Song Li-Gang from the Australian National University used some of his views when Song wrote the paper.

He also said that he was misidentified as the chief economist of the central bank and denied co-authoring the academic paper, carried on the website of the Australian Financial Review newspaper."

It would appear that very little in the original story was in fact
"factual"...we seem to confront this far too often! One can not help
but question, "Why?" {:- )

(Thu May 07 1998 14:47 - ID#31868)
JTF - you are quite correct to have deeply held concerns over the rioting in
Indonesia. Let us not forget they are laying off 10,000 a day, A DAY, in Korea. There is tremendous trouble brewing in that part of the world. It could reach a flash-point any day now where severe military action is taken which could boil over, leading to tense International political pressures coming into play.

My heart goes out to Jin and other people in that region of the world.

(Thu May 07 1998 14:48 - ID#31868)
Oh yeah.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 14:52 - ID#24135)
random thoughts
To all
now if it was a month ago and the
dmark was still 1.85 and the dollar
was STRONG gold would be 297.65 *
1.7675/1.85 = 284
Silver would be 5.965 * 1.7675/1.85
= 5.70
I think thats pretty lousy.
The weak dollar is making PM look
BETTER than they are .. the same can
the said for the US market .. if you
convert to dmarks.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 14:56 - ID#212323)
Oris, you said, " gold is undervalued at least $15..."
True, if you were to *earn* the gold by performing labor or service. To get the gold by paying with cash on hand, I say, "Name your price!"

...or are my thoughts unclear?

(Thu May 07 1998 15:00 - ID#288369)
@Justice (and theft) Denied.
Don't these RSA's know that GOLD is getting TANKED! Geeze..what's an old boy supposed to do? Hit the bid, I guess....Somebody panic somewhere...please. Hello SDRer and JD....

GC500in98.....My friend, several of us here are simply BUYERS...we don't really care what the price or minus $ estate will sell my gold, if it hasn't alreadty been stolen by come crazed Kitcoite or Warren Buffet. Don't listen to me...all I do is cheer...I couldn't trade baseball cards when I was a kid....and nothing's changed. Traders think a certain way....and fellows like me just buy because historically gold is cheap and I'm buying with overvalued dollars.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:01 - ID#212197)
@mozel: Thanks for your comments and references...
...from yesterday.
I was busy with Y2K problems and had no chance to get back earlier.
I would enjoy very much to continue our philosophical discussion, but I'm afraid it would exceed the limits of what this site is meant to be.

I'll study what you recommended but let me also summarize my impressions of our most recent discussion:

- You seem to be precisely clear and radically critical of the legal situation in America, where it has been drifted, and from where it came from. The loss of "true" legality.

- At the same time, you have the greatest believe in the "true" law, of all persons whom I have ever met.

I have read about the "Freemen" and thought: "What a tragedy!". Why did they expose themselves to a system which was obviously already rotten?

By the way: I never really was sure if Socrates did the right thing when he emptied the cup of poison.

But my own mistrust of the present legal situation in America is so profoundly that I wouldn't even expose myself. And I deeply regret that these wonderful people became victims of p*gs.

But my major concern is this: Americans with your believe might spread affirmative propaganda about an "idea of America" which in reality has ceased to exist long agon: and you told me exactly when and why.

I think, in the long run, I will tend to trust the effective positive political situation more than the idea of a law ( i.e., common law or a law, which is theoretically based on the "judaeo-christian believe" that all men are equally born in the image of god ) . These ideas are at the end irrelevant. What really counts are the people and their will to defend their rights or to fight for their rights. But as things are, people havn't even understood that their "republic" and their "democracy" is history since quite a while. And what also counts are the intentions and the strategies of those who form the "oligarchy".

I know you will not agree with a lot of things which I'm writing, but I anyhow respect and like your orientation, your views, and your invaluable posts.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 07 1998 15:04 - ID#254269)
Indonesia trying to defend rupiah; ( A view from Asutralia)

(Thu May 07 1998 15:05 - ID#348169)
Can Anyone spell - VOLATILITY?
I don't know who's predicted what around here lately as I have not been tuned in for awhile, but Glenn e-mailed me Tuesday with the following: "Mooney:
I short silver at 6.22.5 basis july. It looks like it may collapes
real soon to at least 5.50 if not much lower.
Glenn" He also wrote me that hw was short Gold but expected it not to drop as much as Silver. Hmmm. Glenn's Back In Form!

Lurker 777
(Thu May 07 1998 15:08 - ID#317247)
The critical level for Gold right now, in concert with the charts of previous market bottoms on this page, is the 20 week Moving Average. Right now, on May 1, that MA stands at $US 298.58. Date: Wed May 06 1998 19:54

Oldman ( whither gold? ) ID#186147:
If gold closes below $301, its still a bear market. I sell bears and buy bulls. Everyone is free to disagree with me. After all, its your money. .
Starting to see a pattern here! Date: Thu May 07 1998 14:03

James ID#252150:
I am worried though, that a dip in POG to 250 is possible & also sub 300 for an extended period of time.

Date: Thu May 07 1998 13:32
DEJ ( Gold bull. ) ID#270236:
Looks like I was wrong again. I would be interested in others'
postmortem on our aborted bull. I think it started last week as a technical correction and then the chaos coming out of Europe over the C.B. chief's appointment allowed the professional short sellers to renew the bear case of more massive central bank selling. Anyway, I think we'll go below $278

Date: Thu May 07 1998 08:39
Bob M ( Coming soon ... ) ID#259251:
the gold collapse cometh...$250 gold will be coming soon....deflations ugly head shall rise

Date: Thu May 07 1998 08:10
DJ ( Where will it stop? ) ID#215208:
That's the big question for the day. My guesses:
Gold: 293-295

Date: Thu May 07 1998 05:36
aurator ( ) ID#257148:
Crusty tell fruit of your loins that my pick, and wagered here for all to see, but uptaken only by valiant Auric, was for the spike down before 30 June and to be closer to 270 than 280. We are seeing the same smoke rings, he and I.

Date: Thu May 07 1998 01:08
Poorboys ( Let old ideas die -But slowly ) ID#224149:
Open-Loop I agree Lets get it down to $180.00 I want to swim in it ---Then you can call me Golden Boy ---Away before the darts and arrows

Date: Thu May 07 1998 04:23
Nick@C ( G'day Auric. ) ID#393224:
just as gold takes out 300. Now we shall see if the mid to high 290's will hold. Then we've got our 278-280 rock bottom.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:09 - ID#288369)
@oh my, "come crazed"......SPELLING (wow)....
NOT FREUDIAN!!!! I've called you guys a lot of things...but....ohmy! Sorry...supposed to be "some crazed" Slander, ohmy! No letters please.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:10 - ID#347235)
I am looking at the current slump in price of gold as simmply an opportunity to buy MORE for less money. Comments?

(Thu May 07 1998 15:10 - ID#31868)
Well, there goes the Cuervo Central Shaman. Boiling nicely now, then
off to the smoke house where he will be hanged and dryed. Pity really, he was a nice little fellow.

Oh well, back to the gate, some brave souls are putting in applications.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:11 - ID#339274)
FWIW Time to go long Stop below 82.ABX 21.
Rangy is looking very good.Happy trading

(Thu May 07 1998 15:14 - ID#254269)
Studio_R; Are you still drinking that moonshine in
OK ?

Richard Burke
(Thu May 07 1998 15:19 - ID#411318)
Lurker 777: I see the POG differently. My GCM8 chart shows a rising trend line from the January low and passing through the mid March low. I see this now as a support line which gold tested this morning at 297 and bounced from. There seems to be an upward rising channel and the support line seems to be the bottom of it. A couple of weeks ago the top of the rising channel was hit at just over 315. If the price remains within this channel, then it is bullish.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:20 - ID#288369)
@Retired Warrior.....
You're CRAZY ( like a FOX ) ! Gold is not for everyone....just the future ruling class. I'm tired of this proletariat crap. rock and rumble.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:21 - ID#347172)
While lurking at this forum for some time, I have had the priviledge of gaining the insight from what appear to be very worldly persons, but ladies and gentlemen, this current market situation is blatantly a BUYING OPPORTUNITY!!! While the sellers are getting what they deserve, overvalued dollars, we get what we hold dear, physical gold, not paper gold.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:24 - ID#369174)
I just downloaded and registered for ICQ -- my number is 12179114.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 15:25 - ID#212323)
John Disney--great info in your 'Random Thoughts"
Made me think. Given the dirty float of all currencies ( gold also in the soup ) , over the short term, any one currency may provide the perspective of falling POG, while at the same time another currency will show a rising POG. The only currency that matters is the one in which the concerned individual earns and holds his wealth. If everyone were a master currency speculator their would be no role for gold. But for the simple man, and as a sure bet over the long term, gold will always rise relative to all currencies.

To a gold owner in SE Asia since last July, I'm sure the falling POG relative to the USDollar was not a source of concern...

I continue to enjoy your posts, John, this was NOT a rebuke.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:25 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- you are a voice in the wilderness!
SDRer: Thanks -- I now remember seeing that too. Perhaps our friend at USA gold was referring to this article, and did not get his facts right about an actual Yuan devluation.

I think the events unfolding during the last several days shows the value of linking fundamental and technical data in investing. Technical trading clearly has the upper hand most of the time -- but news of an imminent ( ? ) devaluation in a major country such as China can have a devastating effect on the equities and gold markets. Events in Japan are probably linked to this as well, given how much money the have invested in China and other SEAsian countries. Fortunately other precious metals markets are less affected by such things.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:26 - ID#317193)
Lurker 777
What this means is that no one can predict the future. Sorry, it's TA and your best guess.

Just think if you were long Palladium with about thirty contracts. See, it really could be worse. Take heart, the sky isn't falling-yet! Ever think this is just a short term manipulation to avoid bigger losses? Who knows. Place your bets as you must and more importantly place your stops where you can live with the risk.

Good trading. Tomorrow will be very revealing-methinks.


(Thu May 07 1998 15:26 - ID#255284)
2 bye or not 2 bye
Retired Soldier
Agree, while "averaging down" is a trader's admission of backing the wrong horse, to a pedestrian precious metals investor like mois, buying now, while the POG is in a range of $300+/- 10% is a dream come true. ( No snide remarks please, Studio ) If this ain't the bottom range then none of my reading and trading over the past 15 years means anything at all.

But there is a world of difference between buying physical Gold and renting Gold paper. I say renting gold-paper, all gold-paper is a risky business right now, and unless you happen to
( a ) know what you're doing
( b ) have deep pockets
( c ) have a blind faith in paper
( d ) are one very lucky punter
you may find yourself the proud possessor of paper dollars, paper futures, paper shares, paper-gold that are aspiring to join BRE-X as toilet-paper

imho, of course.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:26 - ID#31868)
The law at work...
Judge acquitted of violating defendant's rights in nose-biting
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 The Associated Press

CLARKSBURG, W.Va. ( May 6, 1998 7:32 p.m. EDT ) -- A former judge who jumped from the bench, ripped off his robe and bit a defendant on the nose was acquitted Wednesday of violating the man's civil rights.

Joseph Troisi, who was a Circuit Court judge for four years, was accused of confronting Bill Witten after Witten repeatedly cursed at him while being led from the courtroom.

Afterward, witnesses said, Troisi returned to the bench as if nothing had happened.

Troisi could have been sentenced to up to 10 years in prison on the federal charge. He has already pleaded no contest to state charges and served five days in jail for assaulting Witten.

Troisi testified in detail about the June 1997 confrontation after a bail reduction hearing in St. Marys. He said he was caught up in "waves of feeling" and not thinking when he exchanged words with Witten.

"I snapped my teeth twice at him. The first time my teeth clicked. The second time I didn't hear my teeth click. ... I looked at his nose and I could see this perfectly round spot on the tip of his nose, and I knew what I had done."

Troisi said his behavior was "bizarre and weird." After 10 months of counseling, he said has he come to realize that other stresses in his life -- financial, political and familial -- had built up inside him.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:27 - ID#288369)
@Avalon....had me an itsy bitsy lit'l nip.....yes, sir.......
Hell, Shaman T#1 ( our very own Emeril ) is cookin' with tequila....he's much further along than me. How's BIG D...DALLAS, TEXAS!!!? The Pearl of the Southwest....the eyes of Tejas are upon you.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 15:27 - ID#24135)
I hate Harmony
to all
I sold off a bunch today so I could
stay about 30 % cash and still get
the DDeeps prefereds .. and they
wont go DOWN ..arrrghhh.
I think Rangy moves up later..
when they get Syama going steady.
Just read that RRS has over 19000
square KM in mineral rights.
And the crazy diamond drama at
Marsfontein. All those goofy farmers
sitting on wall to wall diamonds.
.. and I think thats a non-listed
asset heh heh.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:36 - ID#347235)
@ Aurator
I am not buying paper, I am buying only physical gold and taking delivery! I have bought gold as I could afford it on a cash basic since 1969, sold quite a bit in 80 bought a house, the Bi*** I was married to at the time left me and got that house, but she didnt know about the gold I had left. Have been buying since December and continue to buy 4-6
peices every month when the ol" retired pay arrives.Further comments or advice welcome.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 15:45 - ID#24135)
forecasts .. oldman .. my son
To all
I have a similar problem to some of
you .. I cannot see where gold
has violated its uptrend. In dollars
or in currencies ( maybe against the
dmark ) . And the gold/silver ratio has
trended up fairly strongly since
early February.
As much as I respect oldman's views
I cannot follow the close below 301
thingo establishing this as a bear
market rally.
The same applies to my son EW stuff
.. MY trendlines are holding for the
moment along with the long MA...
... and we did NOT spike down with
stop losses when we broke 300...
Im staying wherever I am with
cash for the moment .. ( 30-35 % ) and
pick up what looks cheap if I like
it.. rangy below 6 rands.. randfontein
at 14..Durban preferreds .. maybe

(Thu May 07 1998 15:46 - ID#252150)
LBG&JD@You put Don Rickles to shame
I've got to hand it to you guys, you are masters of insults & biting sarcasm. Even if I gave up on AU, I'd still check in on you.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:48 - ID#252150)

(Thu May 07 1998 15:48 - ID#57232)
I forgot about the 10,000/day layoffs in S Korea
tolerant1: I share your concerns about our friend Jin. He needs to keep low profile, as those who have no money to buy gold may want it anyway. It will not take long before the riots in Indonesia have spread to South Korea. I wonder what is happening to the price of gasoline, etc in South Korea. If it doubles in one day, as what just happened in Indonesia, that will be a bad sign. I don't think prices will rise this quickly in mainland China, IMHO, partially because much of their economy is still on barter.

What worries me more than a little bit is the mainland China has little to lose from a significant devaluation. Japan and the Western world have alot to lose from a Chinese devaluation, because it is their money that will be gone. China is so big that investors will still flock over there to invest a year or two from now, even if there are massive loan defaults now.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:48 - ID#365216)
to retired soldier
You have given a good lesson in keeping some assets known only
to your self. I had a bitch of a wife leave me too; fortunately
she couldn't wait until I transferred all my assets into joint
accounts and therefore all she got were the wedding gifts.

Pre-Nupts are sounding better all the time; better yet, concentrate
your sexual energies on something else and don't get married.

Got any good dealers you can recommend?

Carry on, Soldier.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:51 - ID#210235)
Jim Steele of REBCO just featured on CNBC. Says gold a little historically undervalued at these levels. Would buy at 290 or thereabouts. Feels that current weakness is market disappointment at German bankers statements on Euro reserves, not as much as market had hoped. Felt that weakness in the Dow or USD would be good for gold, although that hasn't transpired as yet.

He preferred platinum if it came down to 390. Felt it was headed for a good rally. FWIW.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:52 - ID#290118)
Albercih, sharefin, el al.
To all of you do not live in the USofA.
I value your comments, suggestions, criticisms, etc.
I value your perspective.
We Americans are often so close to our problems
we can not clearly see ways out of them.
We really do need your help. Thanks from all of us.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:52 - ID#290118)
Albercih, sharefin, el al.
To all of you do not live in the USofA.
I value your comments, suggestions, criticisms, etc.
I value your perspective.
We Americans are often so close to our problems
we can not clearly see ways out of them.
We really do need your help. Thanks from all of us.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:54 - ID#210235)
@John Disney
What's EW stuff?

(Thu May 07 1998 15:54 - ID#269409)
@ James
No problem! Silver's up! Life is good! And as JTF said.... we should be thankful we don't live in Indonesia....

(Thu May 07 1998 15:56 - ID#290118)
I'm a sorry soul
for mistyping your ALBERICH's name
And I can't figure out why I'm double posting.
I hit the submit your comment button ONCE.
Got me befuddled!

(Thu May 07 1998 15:56 - ID#269409)
Gold, Silver, 12 month retrospective
A year ago today;

Gold closed, $ 341 it's down 12% from that level

Silver closed, $ 4.74 ... today it's up, 26% from that level

And they say the metals move in tandem...........

Richard Burke
(Thu May 07 1998 15:56 - ID#411318)
XAU & Gold Stocks
To All: On March 2, I went long with several gold stocks and sold April 29. At the time I bought the April Gold was 298.5 and the XAU 75.2. When I sold May gold was 311.6 and the XAU 90.3, up 4.4% and 20% respectively. Today at 10:30 AM PDT the May Gold was 298.4 and the XAU was 82.8 or 10% higher than on March 2. These numbers confirm what several have been saying about the gold stocks possibly being overvalued. But we must not think that they are overvalued just because the XAU/Gold ratio gets bigger. As POG goes up the price of gold stocks seem to go up at faster rates, thus we can expect the ratio to increase as the price of gold increases. In summary, we see signs of overvaluation when the XAU/Gold ratio rises proportionally more than it should ( and that is a hard call without a lot of data to study ) when gold is rising or when the ratio is higher one time from the other at the same gold price.

I generally look on PDG, K and TVX as solid stocks with good volume to buy. On March 2, prices were PDG ( $C17.90 ) , K ( $C5.15 ) and TVX ( $C4.23 ) . The high for the XAU occured on April 23 at 93.2 when May gold was 314.5. The Xau had risen 20%, and gold 5.4%, but PDG had risen 24.6%, K 35.9%, and TVX 46.5%, thus illustrating the leverage some of the better gold stocks have on the XAU. Some fundamentals also affected these rises. K had just had a superb first quarter report and TVX had been really beaten up through 1997 as the price of gold dropped.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:58 - ID#57232)
Physical gold
aurator: I agree with you! One thing that will not vanish in a puff of smoke is physical gold. I still cannot decide whether bullion coins or numismatic coins are a better choice -- all depends on whether you need to sell gold to put food on the table, or whether you can wait for demand to increase again -- just like what is happening in Indonesia.

When there is rioting in the streets, I doubt that there will be much difference between numismatic and bullion price of coins. After a semblance of wealth returns, then the price differential will return.

(Thu May 07 1998 15:59 - ID#255284)
Crusty means Elliot Wave. I was replying to your ICQ message when my pooter froze again. Would like to continue discussion sometime, yes?

(Thu May 07 1998 15:59 - ID#31868)
JTF - Yes concern about Jin and family, it can not be pleasant. One of my
biggest anxieties is how cozy CHINA is getting with N. Korea. In addition they have made some strong comments regarding protecting Chinese in Indonesia.

Throw in the Coward Erect and his obvious ties to China and it gets real murky.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:01 - ID#31868)
JTF - on numi vs bullion - FWIW concerning gold -
I keep 25% in numismatics the remainder in bullion.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:05 - ID#244242)
Dippies at it again...
The Dippies came in literally at the last minute to pop up the Dow about 6 points on BIG volume. Talk about tape painting...! Bet people will be lined up at the open tomorrow to follow suit.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:06 - ID#347235)
@ General
I buy from Russ Savage you can get him at
I did get married again but this one is different from the first and I still have hidden assets. It was a valuable lesson and worth the price to get rid of her.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:06 - ID#288369)
@Hip Hip Hooray for BLACKSTONE RESOURCES!!!!
Supporting our site with a great lookin' advertisement....Thanks!!!

(Thu May 07 1998 16:06 - ID#57232)
LGB: I don't remember saying we should be thankful we don't live in Indonesia. What I did tell Jin several times is that the problems he is experiencing are likely to become ours as well -- only later, not this year.

So - we learn about our future from him -- and I hope we are helping him, too.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:06 - ID#255284)
Wheel of Fortune
I used to believe that about Roulette, that the bank always had a natural advantage, until I read "The Newtonian Casino" by Thomas A Bass, Penguin.

Ohh it was called "The Eudaemonic Pie" in the USA, published by Houghton Miffin in 1985.

A great Mathematical Detective story, everything to keep a scientist with an eye to "the main chance" on his toes, and it's non-fiction. Imagine building computers into the soles of your shoes, activated by your toes with Infra Red communications to your mates around the casino, and playing the wheels.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:12 - ID#210235)
Dear all, if you're on ICQ and you'd like to have your number occasionally posted on Kitco, send it to me at 11961385; I'm compiling a list. If you have posted your number on Kitco, you are probably on it now. If you don't want your number repeated, please let me know.

This is a real boon. We've been clarifying some of the news details, researching more Y2K, and discussing investment strategies at a level that would be impossible here at the discussion site.

Polarbear, it is impossible to find you. Too many of that name on ICQ. Somehow I missed getting you on my list. Studio.R, you can't be found by nickname. Don't know your number.

Look forward to hearing from you. Promey

(Thu May 07 1998 16:14 - ID#210235)
Thanks for EW.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:17 - ID#254269)
@ Prometheus; What is ICQ and how does it
work ? TIA .

(Thu May 07 1998 16:18 - ID#288369)
I'm 11949731........are ya'll making some money over there in KB&G or just drinkin'? whose buyin'?

(Thu May 07 1998 16:18 - ID#228100)
Are YOU ready for Y2K???
The CIA is warning employees to grab some extra cash, and stock up on blankets before December 1999.,4,21806,00.html?

This article says that Europe, Asia and South America will be hit even harder than the USA. But this won't cause panic. The economys in great shape. The POG won't go up either. Right. Hey, would our government lie to us? Of course not! Just ask Ron Brown, Vince Foster, James McDougal, Susan McDougal, Webb Hubbell, and my favorite: Monica Lewinsky. Whats are the oldest lies: the checks in the mail... ( from Revlon I suppose ) ...

(Thu May 07 1998 16:19 - ID#254269)
Indonesia; My guess (and it is only a gut feeling) is that Soeharto will crack down
on any more riots and demonstrations. I doubt he will let it go on the way it is going right now. Only a gut feeling.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:19 - ID#388209)
You left out Disney's not inconsiderable cold water. But I think the post that passes for wisdom of the day is from DA @ 08:23.

Steady boys, they're just gunning the stops prior to expiry. Their greed won't dare get out in front of their fear that the longs are waiting to counter-attack below $298.50 ! Keep them Keyntuck Long rifels down behind the cotton bales, until you can see the gleam off their shovel beyonets !

However, a break or parlay at this level would cause me to attack in another direction, while posting an adequate rear guard !



(Thu May 07 1998 16:20 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.10 Four pro-goldbug days in a row but by the smallest of margins.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:23 - ID#269409)
@ Aurator....wheel of life
Curious about your 16:06. What theory allows the player to overcome the two "Double Zero's" ( on American wheels ) that give the casino 6% of players wagers?

Bill Buckler
(Thu May 07 1998 16:23 - ID#256381)
Gold Below 20-Week MA?
Lurker ( 15:08 and 14:44 ) According to CBS, GCM8 ( June ) Gold closed at $299.60 today. According to my weekly Gold chart ( the one I use on my "gold bottoms" page ) , the 20 week MA is about $299.40. The week isn't done yet.

On my chart, a trendline drawn through the Jan. and March. Gold lows is also still intact. Right now, it's about $1 below the 20-week MA.

On both measures, Gold has not broken down yet.

Back at the end of September last year, when Gold briefly spiked to $338, all the technical parameters were in place for a Gold bull market except one. the 20 week MA was still pointing down, although the price had risen above it.

This time, the 20 week MA has been trending up for well over a month. Gold has remained above it throughout that period. It is still above the MA, albeit only just.

Technically, there is no "resumption of the bear market" yet on the chart. Gold is neutral. In fact, the Dow is far more ominous, having traded back below the 9000 level today.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:25 - ID#269409)
Excerpts from Kaplan's site
THE ENVELOPE PLEASE-My award for best mainstream financial writer for the past few years is no contest-it goes to
Floyd Norris, whose Market Watch column can be found on the bottom of the first page of the Sunday New York Times
Business Section each week. Along with the occasional sober article in Barron's Weekly, Mr. Norris is the only major-media
reporter who consistently, intelligently, and entertainingly points out the flaws in the new era brainwashing perpetuated by the
media who are virtually owned by the mutual fund holding companies and major brokerage houses through their advertising
dollars. In his column on May 3, Floyd Norris notes that "An odd dichotomy is developing in American financial markets.
The managers entrusted with investing cash are keeping their clients' money fully invested. But when it comes to their own
investments, they are taking a slightly [I love the sarcastic understatement in the word "slightly", which really means
"completely"] different course. They are selling. 'We're seeing a wave' of money manager deals, said John Downing, a
Goldman, Sachs partner who focuses on raising money for financial companies. Why now? 'It's the valuations,
predominantly', he said." [In other words, they're cashing out while the getting out is good. Who do you think is going to
come out ahead in the end-these well-informed, well-heeled industry professionals who are selling, or the horde of little
investors who are throwing money at equity funds? There's an old saying among poker players: If you don't know who the
patsy [neophyte loser] is at your table, then YOU'RE the patsy.]

QUOTE OF THE YEAR-How soon we forget the basics of investing in this euphoric era, as aptly pointed out in the Sunday
New York Times Business section of April 19, page 4, as part of a full-page article on gold mining. Said Christopher Holton,
Vice President of Marketing for Blanchard and Company in New Orleans, arguing in favor of buying gold: "IF YOU WANT

INFLATION IS DEAD ( REPRISE ) -At the meeting of the Group of Seven top industrial nations, G7 finance ministers and
central bank chiefs meeting in Washington, D.C. were uniformly optimistic about the worldwide outlook for inflation.
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, "Nobody raised concerns about it. I guess that suggests it's in pretty good
shape." Even the head of the historically cautious German Bundesbank, Hans Tietmeyer, said he "fully shared" the view stated
by the International Monetary Fund that there were not any acute dangers of either inflation or deflation in the world

activity should be reflected in the next two sets of traders' commitments for gold and silver, which are
likely to become more bullish as commercials sense an opportunity to buy from liquidating trend-following
speculators. A spot price of gold below $305, and especially below $300, is likely to draw the strongest
commercial accumulation, as gold insiders know that powerful physical demand has been generated at these
levels for several months, and the supply-demand deficit is most acute when the price is most heavily
discounted. The ability of the XAU, an index of primarily large-cap North American gold mining shares, to
close above 85 after going below that value on the past four consecutive trading days has potentially bullish
implications. If this level holds, gold mining shares are likely to rally sharply as the market selects an
upward bias as the direction of least resistance

(Thu May 07 1998 16:26 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .277 The 50 day moving average reamans .266; for those who are recording these readings the ratio for yesterday has been revised to .285. The XAU was adjusted overnight.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:27 - ID#269409)
Sold some stock
Sold half my company stock last week ( lor ) , the other half today. Bad feeling about tomorrow.....Ooohhhhhmmmmmm.... Meanwhile, go silver!

(Thu May 07 1998 16:30 - ID#347235)
Thanks for the review--that was the most interesting post I read today!

(Thu May 07 1998 16:31 - ID#255284)
gotta go to work


tilt of wheel
initial speed of wheel
initial speed of ball
composition of ball

the answer is Newtonian Physics, data capture, development of pre-hensile toes, and determination to screw the house.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:32 - ID#238295)
Updated Thu May 7 15:49 ET

Full: NY Precious Metals Review: Gold trims some losses

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--May 7--COMEX Jun gold futures settled down $2 at $299.60 per
ounce after hitting a 6-week low of $297.80. They trimmed some of their
earlier losses in a late short-covering bounce, which was largely inspired
by a rise in silver prices. After Jly silver initially extended Wednesday's
losses to hit a 6 1/2-week low of $5.85, it rebounded on short-covering and
bargain-hunting to settle up 5.7c at $5.975 per ounce.
* * *
Traders said that the break of $300 support in early morning NYMEX
Access trade had encouraged further sales, noting that much of the selling
was follow-through from Wednesday's $3 drop.
One trader also noted that there was some "positioning" ahead of
Friday's options expiration. He said that clustering of put options at the
$300 level would probably keep prices low and if exercised could put on yet
more downside pressure.
"We were in the money on the way up with the calls over that level and
now we're on the flip side," said one trader.
Selling today was primarily disappointed liquidation, said James Steel,
analyst at Refco, noting that when gold had broken through $300 it had
triggered sell-stops. "The technicals are crumbling," he said.
Gold fell sharply Wednesday, hurt first by weakness in silver and then
by negative comments from German economist Herbert Hax.
Hax, chairman of the German council of economic advisors, said that
gold might not play a big role in the reserves of the European Central
He said that gold might not play a big role because the ECB is "a
larger currency area and one needs less international liquidity," although
he did not elaborate on this statement.
However, he noted that if there were any gold sales after European
Monetary Union, participating central banks would coordinate policy to make
sure gold stocks were reduced cautiously to prevent world prices being
Traders noted that after period of improved sentiment and higher
prices, gold's reaction to Hax's statements Wednesday showed that the price
is still vulnerable to speculation on how much gold is likely to be held by
the European Central Bank.
Jly silver extended Wednesday's losses to hit a fresh 6.5 week low of
$5.85, but then managed to find support to rebound.
Over the last couple of days, silver has seen no fresh news and has
simply started to look weaker on technical charts, said traders, noting
that some had become impatient with its lack of progress on the upside. The
drop below $6 support paved the way for further losses.
Traders noted that both gold and silver could remain nervous ahead of
the Friday option expiration.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium edged lower in quiet and thin volume
markets. However, traders said that the metals would stay nervous and
volatile until Russia ships the platinum and palladium earmarked for this
year's contracts.
One trader noted that 1-month palladium lease rates had edged down from
the 200% levels seen just over a week ago and were now at 100-125%.
"There's a perception that Russian shipments will soon be on their way
so lease rates are off, but it will be rollercoaster until we see the
actual metal coming out...It will take that to move prices down to some
normalcy," he said.

--Jun gold ( GCM8 ) at $299.60, dn $2; RANGE: 302.00-297.80
--Jly silver ( SIN8 ) at $5.975, up 5.7c; RANGE: 5.995-5.850
--Jly platinum ( PLN8 ) at $393.60, dn $1.4; RANGE: 395.50-391.50
--Jun palladium ( PAM8 ) at $304.35, dn $3; RANGE: 306.0-297.5

Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 298.30-298.70 297.40-297.90 300.60-301.10
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.90-6.00 5.88-5.91 5.89-5.99
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 394.00-396.00 393.00-396.00 396.00-398.00
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 323.00-333.00 318.00-328.00 340.00-350.00

(Thu May 07 1998 16:32 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 50.03

(Thu May 07 1998 16:32 - ID#269409)
@ Retired Soldier....I don't care, I'll buy more...
Retired, You said, "I am looking at the current slump in price of gold as simmply an opportunity to buy MORE for less money. Comments?"

My comment is...congratulations! You just discovered the mantra of every baby boomer buying 401K Equities on a weekly basis when confronted with the possibility of a drop in the market. "Great...I'll get more stock for my money!"

(Thu May 07 1998 16:37 - ID#269409)
@ Aurator...
Ahhhh, I suspected it would have to be due to imperfections in the "hardware" for the game. Thorp and others have performed interesting experiments where they tracked tens of thousands of wheel spin results, identified "favored" numbers, and then bet on same. With mixed results. Of course nowadays, Casino's will just change the wheel or throw you out the instant they suspect you're trying to find a flaw. VERY tough though, to find physics related flaws pronounced enough to overcome that 6%....

Lucky to find flaws enough to yield .6% deviation let alone 6%+ deviation! Just not enough to help I'm afraid....

Thorp and his pals were even analyzing thickness of black vs. red paint, and good stuff like that.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:37 - ID#372262)
McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index ROLLING OVER TO THE DOWNSIDE!
LOOK OUT BELOW! This market is in BIG TECHNICAL TROUBLE! Unfortunately gold and gold stocks will tank right along with 'em! Sorry, but I cannot tell a lie! ( Richard Nixon, George Washington and William Jefferson Clinton )

(Thu May 07 1998 16:39 - ID#345176)

High risk if no one of your family knows about your burried gold.
If you die, it stays burried,...unless some oldboy prospector runs
into it with his metal detector. Tell at least your kids.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 16:39 - ID#24135)
Poor Silver
To All
About 17 years ago .. silver was over
$40 .. now look at it .. It cant go
down MUCH more or they'd have to pay
you to take it's for Hunt
wannabees .. or even worse ..

(Thu May 07 1998 16:39 - ID#431116)
Kinross trades over 2 million
Anyone know what is going on with Kinross.Traded more than Barrick,Placer Dome and TVX put together. ( TSE ) Price holding up as well.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:42 - ID#269409)
New York June COMEX gold options, which expire on Friday, have prompted heavy
two-way interest, leaving the spot price more prone than usual to options-related moves.

Analyst Rhona O'Connell of T.Hoare & Co said recent weakness in gold was illustrated by
the change in open interest on COMEX, which over last Friday and Monday's trading fell
by 7,842 contracts, or four percent, predominantly in the active June contract.

``Liquidation, as opposed to short selling, has therefore quite clearly been the order of the
day and the steady levels in the borrowing rates confirm this,'' she said in a daily report.

Market dissatisfaction with gold's failure to break higher in recent weeks was among the
reasons cited for the fall below $300.00, with stop-loss sales below that level adding to the

Gold had in recent weeks risen from its mid-January low below $280.00 to a five-month
high of $314.70 bid on April 23, but then lost its nerve.

Its subsequent fall, marked by sudden steps lower during the past week, has taken it back
through all the major moving averages that had previously served up a stronger technical

Gerry Celaya, a senior director and analyst in treasuries for American Express Bank, put
the move down to disappointment at gold's earlier failed rally.

``People basically had a look at $314.00, it didn't work and so it started right back down
again below $300.00,'' he said.

``That's got a lot of people worried. If it starts giving way there, people are going to be
talking about $295.00 and $290.00,'' he said, adding that trend-line support was at

(Thu May 07 1998 16:43 - ID#36156)
squirrel - Double Posts
Could be your mouse key is set to double-click or or your double-click speed is set too fast... er, I'm assuming you're using your mouse ( impish smily thingie ) .


(Thu May 07 1998 16:44 - ID#26793)
Received your ICQ message. Sent one back to you but received an intercept saying it "could not make a direct connection" did I want to send by server? Said yes. Can't mix apples and lemons ( DOS )

(Thu May 07 1998 16:44 - ID#288369)
@If the Euro fails....and that is a distinct possibility, er, probability,....
The countries with gold-reserved currencies will likely fare much better than their european counterparts having little or no reserves, i.e., Belgium, Netherlands, England etc.. And if the dollar continues to weaken against the Mark, franc ( s ) , then gold could be assessed as a strategic currency reserve, as opposed to the dollar. Without gold, the euro is just another new derivative.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:49 - ID#347235)
@ Myrmideon,Leaky Gum Boots
Myr, someone with a power of atty knows where it is. I woouldn't give my son the sweat off my cojones on a hot day.

LGB, I have been watching the place for a while now and since so few people seem to take you seriously I will listen to DA,John Disney, Reify
Aurator and others who seem to think I and they are on the right path.
Good day to you though and Shalom!

(Thu May 07 1998 16:51 - ID#17796)
LGB-come on now
Your analogy wasn't even close. Buying at historic lows versus buying at historic highs seems a little different to me. Obviously not to you?

Enjoyed your sense of humor earlier with the plick reference. Watch out you'll ruin your reputation. Naw, on second thought, don't worry about that.

What's your call on gold for tomorrow? Mine is down early then up when the naked call sellers find out how much they have to cover. Well, it's either that or $292-4. How would I know I'm just guessing anyway.


(Thu May 07 1998 16:51 - ID#269409)
@ ALL... The trend is indeed your friend
We here at Kitco tend to get absorbed in little price movements one way or the other, yes? this obsession extends to other investors in other markets as well...through all of this though, it's important to keep one thing in mind. It's the LONG term trend and gain that matters, yes?

Only a COMPLETE MORON would ever look at a short term anamoly in price in any stock or commodity, and think that has some long term meaning in the overall scheme of investment strategy. But then, the world has no shortage of Morons, yes?

(Thu May 07 1998 16:53 - ID#26793)
"A lot of people are worried about gold"

(Thu May 07 1998 16:54 - ID#269409)
@ Retired...
Thanks retired. Being taken seriously here is not something I aspire to! But I do think you missed my point entirely about your thesis. That's OK, buy more dude!

( PS,re that "leaky" thing... ignore all that, I pissed on some guy's shoes here and he's upset about it,,,keeps mumbling about leaking on his boots or some such thing! )

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 16:54 - ID#24135)
Roulette and Euro exchange rates
For Salty..
I think the european wheel has no double zero so less of a
screw job. But you'll never beat it.. Stick to the ponies.
To anyone ..
Now that they're all set to "launch" the euro .. What by the
way is the exchange rate to the Dmark .. or the Franc ..
Im sure Ill be the last to know..

(Thu May 07 1998 16:55 - ID#252150)
Lurker@Don't worry about apocalyptic POG predictions-just own ABX
I bought ABX in JAN & sold most of it on the way up. The last 300 close to the top. I'm actually hoping it will go down at least another couple $
so that I can re-establish my position. If all these dire predictions/fears come true, then I'll be buying ABX all the way down. ABX will cherry pick the best jrs & emerge from the collapse stronger then ever.
Now as for stocks like RANGY...well, that's a different story.

(Thu May 07 1998 16:58 - ID#26793)
"Brutal market forces will determine which (Japanese) banks can compete"

(Thu May 07 1998 16:58 - ID#269409)
There is no analogy between today's Gold market and stock market. It was the concept of "I'll get more for my money if the price is lower" to which I referred. It has relevance because it's one of many reasons the U.S. stock market is a different place today, now that we have automatic deposits of billions per week going into 401K plans.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 17:02 - ID#24135)
If you have a market for scrap rubber..
Leaky Gum Boots might be put to some use.. Otherwise he's
just some guy on a strange ego trip generally unrelated to
what other people are concerned with on the site. Dont worry
about him. He's not serious. Dont turn over the rock. It's not

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 17:04 - ID#384350)
LGB, You got a lot of nerve insulting Mozel with all your filthy language
Mozel is right, and was only trying to be informative.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:07 - ID#17796)
Have you been taking writing lessons from ANOTHER? : )


(Thu May 07 1998 17:08 - ID#347235)
John Disney
I figured that out, as I said I read Vronsky,s Pages and the digest and editorials over there and follow advice from there. Mostly just have fun here and as you know stir things up once in a while to shake off the cobwebs.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 17:12 - ID#24135)
Dont get upset ..
Gianni ..
with Leaky Gum Boots..
The poor guy has a problem ..
few brains .. no class .. dont be
mean to him .. he has trouble
Im sure Mozel hardly noticed
his pitiful yelping for attention.
.. and that's not NERVE .. it's just

John Disney__A
(Thu May 07 1998 17:17 - ID#24135)
Brother Vronksy's got good stuff
and he's a stand up guy.. The less said
about Leaky the better. It's kind of
embarrassing really.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:18 - ID#252150)
POG@Home,home on the rangebound. I feel that the funds/big players have
decided that POG will be rangebound in the 295-320 are & that's probably a good way to play it.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:19 - ID#269409)
@ Gianni
Let me explain this patiently to you. There are literally hundreds of quack cures out there. All the proponents make the same claims that they're miracles have helped thousands, using anecdotal testimonials. ( You could get the same results giving salt tablets to people and asking if it cured them ) .

Furthermore, all the Quacks, Con artists, and fraud perpetrating scumbags who take advantage of the ignorant and the gullible in this manner, claim that their "miracle" cures are being supressed and "covered up" by the medical estanlishment.

These folks who perpetrate this fraud, are perhaps some of the most dangerous beings on the planet, as they dissuade sick folks away from science and into phony "Quack" cures which lead to their deaths.

It constantly amazes me..... Devoted doctors, reseacrhes, scientists, and specialists, devote 24 years of school to learn about the human body and the best way to help us. They devote a lifetime to their trade, which is undercompensated considering the time, schooling, money, and energy they invest. And what do they get?

Whacko's who would sooner believe the High school drop out clerk at the health food store trying to foist some miracle cure herb on them, made from Apricot pits. You think I was hard on Mozel? I thought I was way too easy. His post not only wins the award for "Biggest bandwidth consumer" of the day here.... but "Most dangerous and ignorant".

(Thu May 07 1998 17:27 - ID#388209)
JED @ 16:05 - Forget the DIPSTERS, they're just sheep dip for the wolves !
It's the PPT you have to watch out for. The "dipsters are the unwashed uninformed that will be left holding the bag from which the wolves ate their lunch & from which it appears that our nation's chief exeecutive now resides.
Forget the DOW, watch the S&P futures. That is the choice vehicle of leverage that they use to pry the ship off the shoal, although in a panic like last October they even bought the Dow leaders individually faster than they were actually dropping to throw off ballast. Today, the S&P closed down 9.78, a slightly bigger proportional drop than the DOW. Did it also move like the Dow on the close ?
It looks like the boys in charge of the PPT are letting a little air out at this juncture. Watch the preopening S&P'S for a clue if they have decided to move the market higher. If they were active on today's close they've lost some of that old black magic they do so well !
In a real Bull Market, ALL news is good, as we've seen these last 3 years. This week the biggest bull industrial merger in world history is met with a 2.5% pullback! Hummmmm? Of course, this is ordinarily
"Bullish" because it is univerially recognized that the world auto market has a 2 million unit overcapacity & DB/PlymothBohemoth claim that no jobs will be cut ! What a monstrosity, worse, if possible, than Citicorp & whatever. The share price retracement here will be much more severe than for Travelers, et al. DB will rue the day that they failed to adhere to that famous proverbial tip, "PSSSSSSSSSSt, never buy a Chrysler". Gee, what's it going to be like, will Mercedes grow fins again or will Chrysler Imperials actually get out of the repair garage on time ? I certainly don't believe any Germans will get the ax.

All of course IMHIPO.
Rock Steady & don't forget to "save the males" !



(Thu May 07 1998 17:32 - ID#269409)
Poor Ted Arnold at ML, he's still tryin to talk silver down....
Thursday May 7, 4:30 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals end mixed, gold down, silver up

NEW YORK, May 7 ( Reuters ) - COMEX gold futures prices ended lower Thursday, but
COMEX silver ended higher, against a backdrop of weakness in the US dollar this week.

``We saw some heavy fund selling overnight in gold, but good buying by bullion banks in
both gold and silver today,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a COMEX floor trader with
Hudson River Futures in New York.

``I think we're getting to the bottom of the range in both gold and silver now and after
tomorrow's COMEX gold option expiry, the market will be free to breathe again,'' he

COMEX June gold ended down $2.00 an ounce at $299.60, after sliding to a fresh five
week low at $297.80 early, triggering stop loss orders on the breach of the $300 level.

Total COMEX gold volume was estimated at a high 65,000 lots, after COMEX gold open
interest fell a heavy 5,597 lots Wednesday to 168,079 lots.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $298.35/75, compared to the London
Thursday afternoon fix at $298.10 and the New York close Wednesday around

Implied lease rates for gold were little changed around 1.00 pct per annum for one month
and 1.95 pct for 12 months.

The focus in the gold market remains on European Monetary Union ( EMU ) and how
much gold the European Central Bank ( ECB ) will hold in its reserves when it takes over
EU monetary policy from January 1, 1999.

Market expectations are for the ECB to hold about 10-20 pct of its reserves in gold and
Belgian Central Bank Governor Verplaetse said this week there was a chance that ECB
council members could hold their first meeting on June 2.

In addition, the question of whether European central banks will be allowed to sell or lend
their remaining gold reserves continues to weigh on the market, analysts said.

In the past couple of months, gold prices have been recovering from an 18 year low seen
in January, as European central bank sales ceased, hedge funds covered short positions and
miners lifted some hedges.

Meanwhile, COMEX July silver ended up 5.7 cents at $5.975 an ounce, but not before
sliding to a new five week low early at $5.850 an ounce.

Total COMEX silver volume was estimated at 12,000 lots.

In the bullion market, spot silver ended quoted $5.96/99, compared to the London
Thursday fix at $5.88005 and the New York close Wednesday around $5.91/94.

``Silver's liquidity squeeze should be lifting in coming days,'' said Merrill Lynch analyst
Ted Arnold in a report.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:46 - ID#17796)
Ag has to let some air out or our Japanese friends are in big do do. Notice the statements from Mr. Yen-saying our market will go down. Seems we need to keep the yen at home and not flowing to the US.

Ag wasn't visiting with all those politico's for no reason. Maybe he can do this without a rate hike.


(Thu May 07 1998 17:53 - ID#153102)
@A Peculiar World & The Goldbug
Somebody posted there is no such thing as a socialist profit. That's true and astute. What the Corporate Socialists accumulate is credits, trade credits.

One fourth of the world's stored, intrinsic value wealth ( gold ) is concentrated in the hands of Central Bankers. This situation is an aspect of the enormous concentration of power in government in this century. War is the health of the State. Government today has more control over human life than at any time in history. The thirst of human beings in power for more power is insatiable. Yet, most people are unaware of the power equations that rule their lives. I consider myself only partially aware. I have noticed that particularly among the young, you will hear them validate someone's views by saying, "I saw that on TV or I saw that in a film." There is something peculiar that gives such authority to what is broadcast. It is as if the very fact of broadcast is self-authenticating. It would be an interesting experiment to broadcast an event purporting to occur in Times Square and observe how many people in Times Square watched the event and how many watched the big screen image of the event. And to observe how many there would notice a blatant disparity between the event and the purported broadcast.
In other words, I think what is broadcast to them has more reality to most people than the evidence of their own senses and thoughts. So, it is possible to have a world in which Propaganda dominates Fundamentals. And that is the developed world as we have it. Some call it the System.
The universities, government, media, and the large corporations are all encompassed within it.

The Goldbug is a fundamentalist. The goldbug's only common belief is in the eventual triumph of fundamentals of his own individually reasoned thought or experience. Gold is a common point of convergence of many fundamentals. Gold is the unchanging substance in a world of flux. It is the nexus between this tangible ever-changing world of matter and energy and the intangible world of true and permanent knowledge. Time and again in this century, the Fundamentals and the goldbug have been defeated by Propaganda, by the System. The system has made them look like fools, especially in the marketplace. As the LGB's of the world like to remind us, those believing in the system have been much more rewarded than those doubting it. The stock market bubble reperesents more than investor sentiment, I think. It represents a pinnacle of success for the system. A pinnacle of success for the authorised opinion. And if you do not now know the public "price" of gold is as artificial as the "official price" of gold, you are simply ignorant of events or wilfully disbelieving of the evidence.

There is a term in the common-law for representations which, even if not intended to deceive, nevertheless had a necessary tendency to deceive: it was called "constructive fraud." "By constructive fraud is meant such a contract or act, which, though not originating in any actual evil design or contrivance to perpetrate a positive fraud or injury upon other persons, yet, by its tendency to deceive or mislead. them, or to violate private or public confidence, or to impair or injure the public interests, is deemed equally reprehensible with positive fraud, and, therefore, is prohibited by law, as within the same reason and mischief as contracts and acts done malo animo."

Is propaganda anything other than constructive fraud ? I think not.
It's simply the case that broadcasting, having been removed from the jurisdiction of the common-law by Treaty, you cannot bring the perpetrators to justice.

The more you look, the more you will find dishonesty has been legalized. Consider today's "markets" in the light of the following:

"FORESTALLING, crim. law. Every practice or device, by act, conspiracy,
words, or news, to enhance the price of victuals or other provisions. 3
Inst. 196; Bac. Ab. h.t.; 1 Russ. Cr. 169; 4 Bl. Com. 158.
2. All endeavors whatever to enhance the common price of any
merchandise, and all kinds of practices which have that tendency, whether by spreading false rumors, or buying things in a market before the accustomed hour, are offences at common law, and come under the notion of forestalling, which includes all kind of offences of this nature. Hawk. P. C. b. 1 c. 8 0, s. 1. Vide 13 Vin. Ab. 430; Dane's Ab. Index, h.t.; 4 Com. Dig. 391 1 East, Rep. 132."

Are not all of the CB's and the USG guilty of forestalling in the foreign exchange markets to enhance the $US ?

The more you learn, the more you see that people in government are able to do things legally by statute that are criminal under the common-law. Government is in our time indeed the enemy of the honest man. I don't think in America the people ever delegated to their representatives a power to protect the criminal, but that is what legislatures have been doing for some time now. When you get to where I am in awareness, it is pretty darned obvious why these people are terrorized by religious people, Christian and Islamic, and why they have announced more than once in my lifetime that God is Dead, why they promote the religion of evolutionism, and disallow the public teaching of moral knowledge. They are all unconvicted felons according to Judeo-Christian Law. Truly, if you can convince people that gold is not money, you have notched one cog further long in convincing them that there is no fundamental right and wrong. In everything, if you do not know what you know, you will be spun to where they want you to go. But, even the disbelievers, if they are honest, must acknowledge the ultimate source of whatever moral knowledge they lay claim to. It is like all true and permanent knowledge something that has been revealed, something that has been uncovered to sight. It has been tried many times by torture unto death and not found wanting. That's strong experimental evidence when you think about it.

So, condense yourself to what you treasure most and find the friends of it. Because the Year 2000 approaches and the System is not ready for it.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:53 - ID#269409)
Junk Science rules...Ignorance reigns supreme
Obviously time to repost this link...

(Thu May 07 1998 17:54 - ID#286230)
Big Implications
newtron: I think the interesting part of the M-B Chrysler deal is that the combined company will be a German registered firm. Pooooooof.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:58 - ID#288399)
AG / newtron
That deep doooo-doooo. I agree, AG is trying to let the air out through the backdoor because any "announcement" of any kind ( i.e., interest rate hike ) would be the death knell of paper. Time to take physical and go rural. The PPT may have shot its wad already.

(Thu May 07 1998 17:59 - ID#194311)
"Bubba's Wall St. Bubble"
Interest rates in Japan "dangerously low": Hong Kong official

GENEVA, May 7 ( AFP ) - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Donald
Tsang said in Geneva Thursday that interest rates in Japan were at
"dangerously low levels" and warned against a possible bursting of
the "Wall Street bubble."
Tsang was speaking to journalists at the launch of a new Hong
Kong economic and trade Geneva office.
"Interest rates in Japan are at dangerously low levels", he
said, adding that he was very worried about Japanese banks' large
non-performing assets.
Problems in Japan are serious and a global issue, Tsang said.
Hong Kong is "quite anxious to help," he stressed.
Tsang said that Japan should find ways to mobilize its markets,
to regain market confidence.
Tokyo's 16 trillion yen stimulus package "hasn't worked at all",
he said.
He said he was quite confident that China would make an eight
percent economic growth this year. "I am worried about the Wall
Street bubble bursting a lot more than what's going on in China,"
Tsang added.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:02 - ID#288369)
@mozel......may you be blessed......
as you have blessed us. Your 17:53 is remarkable. We gather here to affirm and rigidly define the fundamental difference between right and wrong. Thank you.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:06 - ID#194311)
Gold heading to $250
with the Wall St. bubble, before this is over....
steel yourselves people, ain't gonna be an easy ride.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:08 - ID#342376)
I hope you don't get cancer. Last I checked, chemotherapy got it's roots from Mustard Gas. It's all poison. Radiation? Now that's a good one. it CAUSES cancer. The treatments are worse than the disease. Although there are some instances when it can help. I unlike you, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. I'm surprised your a goldbug. Your obviously impressed with Mainstream Medicine as it is. I suggest you buy more Mutual Funds............

(Thu May 07 1998 18:10 - ID#411331)
@STUDIO.R I agree with your comments with respect to the gold backing of the new EURO.
The Euro needs at least 5% backing or it will be stillborn. To be a strong rival to the American dollar, a 10 to 25% gold backing will be needed. Do the 11 member states in the EURO monetary group presently
have enough gold in CB reserves to back the EURO at even 5%? If they
don't, wouldn't manipulation of the price downwards so that accumulation
could occur be a reasonable strategy?
In this period of financial system insecurity, launching a new currancy backed only by the promises of politicians seems ludicrous.
I e-mailed Robert Pringle with regards to the producer forward sales-CB leasing-spot gold price negative feedback loop, with the question "Is such CB gold leasing likely to cease?" He said that it is
unlilely to cease in the foreseeable future. They will be publishing

This forward sale, leasing, spot price loop is lethal for the gold
industry, except during our periodic, but brief bull markets. One has to wonder that since the CB's know about the impact of the loop, if they actually intend to try to destroy gold's use as a monetary reserve.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:10 - ID#69149)
@tolerant1 (re: your 13:44 message)...
I wonder when the backlash will come when one will start hearing from certain corners that anyone attempting to raise awareness of Y2K is a "fearmonger", "survivalist" ( term used disparigingly ) , "right-wing nutcase", "religious fanatic", ad nauseum? Would sure take the heat off of the real 'villains', no?

(Thu May 07 1998 18:15 - ID#270247)
Moxel and Cancer
Thanks for posting the article concerning cancer and a possible alternative cure. I recently lost my grandfather and a cousin to cancer. Both were told by doctors that there was NOTHING they could do to help them, so they turned to other holistic methods. In my cousins case the holistic methods let her live many years free of the discomforts of chemotherapy and surgery. My grandfather was really to far along when they discovered it for much to help.

Another friend was diagnosed with cancer many years ago and given a short time to live. She chose a holistic form of treatment and is still with us today. Part of that treatment is simply making sure you eat right and get plenty of rest to keep your body in balance.

To often new ( or sometimes old ) ways of treating diseases are dismissed by today's doctors because they aren't openminded enough to think that there might be a different way of healing someone besides cutting them open, feeding them a bunch of pills, or sticking needles in them.

Yes, Western medicine has bettered the lives of most people on the planet, however, it doesn't have all the answers and it won't if doctor's continue to disregard other treatments just because they are labled Holistic or Natural or Shamanic.

My opinion is that if there is any possiblilty this

(Thu May 07 1998 18:20 - ID#270247)
Mozel, sorry I mispelled your name

(Thu May 07 1998 18:27 - ID#31868)
Jed - Nah, never happen, many of the Y2K reports are being pounded onto the
Internet via computer/tech magazines. Ed Yourdon is certainly no terrorist and his book is one of the most respected. The CIA and the heavies listed in the various articles that are being released are not in the nut case or survivalist arena either.

People that are hoisting the red flag on this will be seen as the intelligent ones who spoke up and informed people how to help their families.

Tick, tock, tick, tock...

(Thu May 07 1998 18:30 - ID#317193)
Joke-it's slow and gold was down so some humor
Super Bowls:
The Importance of Being There...

Bob Smith receives a FREE ticket to the Super Bowl from his company. Unfortunately, when Bob arrives at the stadium he realizes the seat is in the last row in the corner of the stadium - he's closer to the Goodyear blimp than the field.

About halfway through the first quarter, Bob notices an empty seat 10 rows off the field, right on the 50 yard line. He decides to take a chance and makes his way through the stadium and around the security guards to the empty seat.

As he sits down, he asks the gentleman sitting next to him, "Excuse me, is anyone sitting here?"

The man says, "No."

Now, very excited to be in such a great seat for the game, Bob again inquires of the man next to him, "This is incredible! Who in their right mind would have a seat like this at the Super Bowl and not use it?"

The man replies, "Well, actually, the seat belongs to me, I was supposed to come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first Super Bowl we haven't been together at since we got married in 1967."

"Well, that's really sad," says Bob, "but still, couldn't you find someone to take the seat? A relative or close friend?"

"No," the man sheepishly replies, "they're all at the funeral."


(Thu May 07 1998 18:34 - ID#210235)
ICQ "I seek you" was introduced to this forum by Bart a few days back. In a couple of hours I'll update the number list. Up to 16 numbers now. Bart's introduction:

Date: Sat May 02 1998 01:10

Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) ( I Seek You ) ID#261187:

Copyright  1998 Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

One of the biggest problems in trying to make this site a useful and informative discussion group is keeping it from turning into a chat line. Someone

recently posted a response to a request to have us set up an IRC server which basically made the distinction between a chat line and a discussion


In an effort to eliminate the barroom banter but without losing the regulars, I have a strong suggestion that I'd like to put forward. It'll require a

collective effort to make it work but will allow full freedom to chat without the restriction of netiquette rules , while at the same time improving the

overall quality of this site.

For those of you unfamiliar with ICQ,it's fun, often addictive and was even the subject of a letter of concern from a local high school to the parents of

kids who found it far more stimulating than hanging out in the park until midnight. ICQ is not a video game but rather an internet communication tool

that is way far ahead of any kind of chat room in terms of features, ease of use, and functionality.

Once installed on your computer ICQ will allow you to chat ( by keyboard ) privately with any single or group of Kitco participants while connected

here or anywhere else. When you connect to the internet all others who have also installed ICQ will know that you've just arrived online ( can be

disabled ) and you'll be able to check the list of all the other Kitco participants who are also concurrently connected. Then you can initiate private

chats, group chats, send messages, mail, pictures whatever while still maintaining the same level of anonymity that you desire.

When you set up ICQ it asks for an email address and nickname ( handle ) as well as a bunch of other optional personal information. But at the very

least you need to register these two items. For our purposes I suggest that everyone use their Kitco handle as their nickname, and if you want, use as your email address. It won't function for email but will identify you as a participant or lurker of our group.

To support this effort I'm willing to allow as much bandwidth as needed to discuss ICQ on our GOLD discussion group. Feel free to post all the

questions and answers necessary about setting it up and using it. . ( But you probably won't need much help, since it installs flawlessly and is really

simple to use )

The ICQ homepage is at, but if you want to go direct to the download page you want At only

1.6 megs it's a quick download and installation is a breeze.

Please try it. By adding a new dimension of interaction it will improve both the quality and enjoyment of this site for lurkers and contributors alike. I

guarantee that you'll wonder how you ever managed without it, or we'll refund your purchase price on or before Jan 1, 2000. Oh yeah, it's also free.

Dave in CO
(Thu May 07 1998 18:34 - ID#229103)
It's different this time
Take the bubble-investor's advice. Buy K-tel and Wham-O.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:38 - ID#288369)
@mozel, coincidently my word-of-the-week is "fraud"...........
This week I have been frequently using the term "fraud" in this context: I have come to believe that the music of today, in general, is conceived by musical frauds and performed by musical frauds. Orchestral "simplicity" ( a commonly used crutch or cop out ) is not the same as musical purity. The discipline of music has slowly become divorced from the "art". We have Art. Now we get to hear imbecilic noise created by "musicians" that can't read music and have, at best, an abbreviated repertoire of borrowed musical phrases.
Why? Because, today very few musical "artists" are concerned with the fundamentals and its inherent discipline...they have a singular sight of self expression. Cows want to be heard too.

Music really does portray, perhaps portend, social condition, and in the case of our popular music, we gaze upon a confused canvas and a palette of greys.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:45 - ID#372276)
Fummer re: surplus
Fummer, I was reviewing the Federal Reserve banks balance sheet also, and found the Fed transfer surplus to Treasury; as follows: "Payments to Treasury totaled $20,083 million, compared with $23,389 million in 1995. The payments consist of all net income after the deduction of dividends and after the deduction of the amount necessary to bring surplus of the Reserve Banks to the level of capital paid-in. Also in 1996, the system made a lump-sum payment of $106 million to the U.S. Treasury from the surplus account of the Federal Reserve Banks, as required by statute."Federal Reserve Banks 1996 annual. [authors note: 20billions seems a paltry sum compared to interest earnings?]

( millions of dollars )

Item: 1996


Current income25,164

Current expenses1,948

Operating expenses1,639

Earnings credit granted309

Current net income23,216

Net additions to ( deductions from, - ) current net income-1,639

Cost of reimbursed services to Treasury38

Assessments by the Board of Governors565

For expenditures of Board163

For cost of currency403

Net income before payments to Treasury20,975

Dividends paid265

TRANSFERRED TO SURPLUS ( note2 ) [see below]635

PAYMENTS TO TREASURY ( note2 ) 20,083


note2. In addition to the amounts shown, $106 million in Federal Reserve Bank surplus was transferred to the Treasury as statutorily required.


[authors note: I believe ( note2 ) refers to the statues I posted on the forum concerning transfers in 1997:1998. Why does it show up in 1996? I believe that the requirement is October 1 1996-1998. This might possibly mean that four times as much will be transferred in 1997: 400milions, and 300millions in 1998????? And all to buy gold or pay down the debt??? We can dream I guess.]

(Thu May 07 1998 18:46 - ID#401460)
M1 Tanks / Tiger Tanks ?????

Daimler Chrysler, does this mean that the US M1 Tank is now being made by the same Co. and/or Country that made the Nazi Tiger Tank? Hm Hm Hm .....Interesting.

Daimler Chrysler, does this mean that the Euro Dollar has just bought 1/3 of the US Auto Industry? Hm Hm Hm.....Interesting.

Who controls the Pension Funds now, the Rockefellers or Rothschilds?

Who does Daimler Chrysler pay its taxes to, the US or Germany?

Isnt this a national defense issue for the US Congress?

Wait till General Motors merges with Honda, and becomes a Japanese registered Co. As GM goes so goes the Nation


(Thu May 07 1998 18:48 - ID#26793)
BOJ Dep. Gov. to have 5 day meeting with BIS. Five days? Yup. Hmmmmm.

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 18:50 - ID#209265)
LGB - don't be so quick to jump on Mozel et al.
I know where you're coming from, but just let me say that Gaston Naessens is for real. He's always been a bit of a stubborn, somewhat abrasive fellow, and I think personality clashes might have had as much to do with his problems with scientific acceptance as his iconoclastic theories.

I have a friend at Stanford University who has visited Naessens, and he says the microscope works, and there is something to his ideas about cancer, although he thinks Naessens may be misguided about the underlying mechanism.

I was also priviledged to meet two German fellows who were improving and commercializing Naessens' microscope at a conference in 1994. The microscope is a fabulous invention. It gets almost the maximum theoretical resolution for a light-based image using only analog techniques. If you go to very short-wavelength light ( uv ) you can resolve extremely small objects.

There were some mistakes in the article Mozel posted, but there is something to it. Naessens is one of those strange, reclusive geniuses who will only be appreciated after he is gone ( if he isn't already- he's very old, must be in his mid-eighties by now. )

Must be going now. Just remember- always be nice : )

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 18:51 - ID#26793)
Fed drains reserves again. Again? Yup. Hmmmmmm.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:51 - ID#433172)
hungary thing
Lots of comment over y2k insecurity. Wheat is the answer, hard red winter wheat, in five gallon plastic buckets. And a hand grinder. If anyone is interested I can supply easy and delicious recipes.
The canadian cheap stocks I bought into are either not trading or in the green, I don't follow any trends or prediction systems, don't understand any, but I think gold is headed up. Substancially.
Madalyn Albright says we have a " indissolveable" or maybe "indissoulable" some kind of bond with the state of Isreal. Is that a mother -son reelationship? I didn't know the U.S. had formed any alliance which couldn't be unilateraly terminated, but then I've been out of town for some time.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:53 - ID#69149)
Amen brother! I usually watch the PREM like a hawk and couldn't help noticing when the DOW tried to bounce toward the end of the day that the PREM hardly budged-almost like the PPT took the afternoon off-or maybe they have indeed 'shot the wad' and the well is running dry. Who knows for sure? We will, of course, find out all during a future market post-mortem. Actually, in hindsight, that end-of-day burst of bullishness was probably professionals bottom-fishing, or bottom-picking : )
My take on gold is that we are in for a drop to the $280 to $290 area over the next several weeks. How about that? Nice and fuzzy ( VBG )

(Thu May 07 1998 18:55 - ID#401460)

Bankruptcy bill puts children at risk,

WASHINGTON ( May 6, 1998 5:44 p.m. EDT ) -- Thousands of mothers and children who are owed support payments would have to take a back seat to credit card companies in collecting debts from fathers under bankruptcy legislation before Congress.


(Thu May 07 1998 18:56 - ID#26793)
Fed action on banking system reserves since April 29th.

(Thu May 07 1998 18:59 - ID#31868)
George - any www sites
to go to on red wheat?

(Thu May 07 1998 19:00 - ID#153102)
@Steve_In_To @George
Steve Please post any corrections which you can as I want to be informed of them.

George Please post sources for wheat and grinder and some recipes as I am sure there are many interested.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:04 - ID#269409)
@ Crazytimes
Re your 18:08...I'm amazed how many folks here embrace ignorance as if it were a virtue. Would you banish science altogether in favor of Witchdoctor's, psychic healers, and Quacks? I hope for your sake, you never get cancer or some other serious malady...I can assure you that your Gardner will not provide the same level of expertise as your Doctor, well though you might wish it were so.

Yes sir you are quite correct that I am impressed with modern medicine. It saved my life from a rather rare electrical heart malady ( Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome ) , saved my daughters life at 6 months when her skull refused to unfuse and allow for brain growth ( only the most astute and quick thinking medical help and Neurological experts realized what needed to be done surgically and immediately ) , saved my mother's life when she had "incurable" cancer, but followed her Oncologist's ( and his team of other dopctor consultant's ) semi experimental course of treatment.

Modern Western medicine has resulted in lengthining lifespan and quality of life consistently for decades, and that's simply indisputable fact. So much so that now our societal worry is how we're going to pay all the long lived retiree's when the "Boomers" retire. Modern Western medicine has been meta studied in comarison to the "Holistic", "Traditional Chinese" and all kinds of alternatives...with obvious results, both evidentiary, and historically.

My own family's experiences are only anecdotal. It has little meaning except to us. For others it ought to be the objective evidence for modern medicine vs. frauds such as Homeopathy that will be conclusive.

Go ahead and embrace ignorance if you wish. Perhaps if someone tells you aliens landed and explained that the Moon is made of SIlver, you'll be "open minded" enough to eschew all the evidence to the contrary and believe that as well. However, extraordinary claims, require extraordinary evidence to be believed if you believe in the scientific approach.

As for me, I will indeed, believe those who have devoted their lives to studying the matter, before I believe the spoutings of ignorant fools..especially in areas that concern health, science, and medicine.

In most areas, I can maintain a sense of humor and go with the flow. In this one, I will object to the fraud, nonsense, and ignorance being held up as virtuous wisdom. It's dangerous.....very much so.... but unfortunately prevelant today.

Folks will believe their Hairdresser's stupid recommendations re some miracle herb, before they believe in millions of hours of hard scientific research. I have difficulty reconciling this with humananity's supposed ability to use deductive reasoning and logic in their approach to life.

Many are objecting to off topic posts, this is my final word on the matter.

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 19:04 - ID#209265)
LGB, Mozel, Gianno et al. - Laetrile
Just another thought. LGB, when you mentioned people eating apricot pits I presume you're talking about "Laetrile" which some people are trying to name "Vitamin B17."

I have no idea whether it cures or prevents cancer, attempts to ban it in North America plus the lack of any patentability have precluded anyone form funding clinical studies, as far as I know.

I have tasted it though, and let me put in a plug: it tastes great. It's like almonds on steroids! Cracking open apricot pits is a bit too much work for me, but you can get it by eating bitter almonds or chewing apple seeds. Eat 'em plain or with a bit of sugar and it's like a thousand-almond jolt : )

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 19:07 - ID#194311)
Donald...what's the fed up to
are we getting pissed on again by the bankers?

(Thu May 07 1998 19:08 - ID#269409)
Yes, Laetrile was the "cure" Steve McQueen sought out in Mexico when he turned his back on Western medicine for this "Miracle" "alternative" cancer treatment, which studies show completely ineffective.

He swore by it... that he was getting better and Western medical experts were covering it up because it was inexpensive. It killed him of course, as it did thousands of others.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 19:09 - ID#212323)
rhody...don't beleive it for even a minute...
that the Central Banks are unappreciative of gold's role as a financial resource and medium. What may appear to you and many others as a deliberate assault on gold as a result of CB disdain for the metal, the symptom ( effect ) is being improperly used to diagnose the disease ( cause ) .

Let us simplify the example. Picture a land of feudal lords and a multitude of vassals. These vassals work hard growing crops, raising livestock, mining natural resources, and everything else you can imagine to increase the wealth of their province and bring betterment to their lives. The lords may not be tyrants, but they do want to maintain the relative status quo by providing assistance as needed to their vassals. At one time the vassals bartered amongst themselves, but as time passed the lords introduced a form of money in assistence to the peasants--hard wax beads bearing the lord's seal. Within any given province, this system worked because the peasants accepted the beads in trade. However, no lord was willing to accept the wax beads from another lord as payment for crops, cattle, etc, because they knew the true value of the items being offered. Trade between lords involved barter, or gold, or anything that would be viewed as equal value.

It was not in a lord's interest to dissipate any of his gold amongst the vassels as their money, as that would limit his ability to engage in commerce with other lords for the exports of other provinces. Unfortunately for the lords, they eventually witnessed their vassal productivity decline, the condition of the province deteriorate, and an ever-increasing difficulty to maintain the two-tier money system. Somehow the vassals became wise to the nature of money; they witnessed the lords' high esteem for the yellow metal by encouraging them to mine for it and paying many many wax beads for it. The cat was out of the bag, and time brought down the system.

Back to reality... The Central Banks handle the financial affairs for inter-governmental dealings. They have a common meeting place called the Bank of International Settlement ( BIS ) . This bank recognizes that GOLD IS MONEY, and if you don't show up with gold, you can't do business at the bank. In fact, if you DO show up at their door with gold, they will overlook the small detail that you might not actually be a Central Bank. They will be happy to assist you with your gold-based transaction. This is their way of life. The Central Bankers value gold with high regard. They just don't want the peasants to know--it would wreck the system and stand the status quo on its head.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:12 - ID#258142)
@HighRise, 18:46
Euro Dollar, Daimler Chrysler: more to come

(Thu May 07 1998 19:12 - ID#288295)
Steve in TO

That funny tasting stuff you find in peach, apricot pits ( and maybe almonds, I'm not sure ) is a harmless little chemical know as cyanide...don't eat too many.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:15 - ID#388209)
AG is more of a hostage than a scoundral, or if you will, more prostitute than pimp. He is probably out voted by now by the BC/Wall street axis voting members. He probably went to the oval office, hat in hand, looking for consensus approval from RR & BC for some kind of monetary & market restraint with RR endorsing some dire scenario & proposed "soft landing"{SEE: @ KITCO 5/2/98 @ 23:38}. Yesterday, RR sounded a clear warning for those that have ears that valuations would be deflated. Did you notice BC's comment at the press conference that market movements were ok, as long as there weren't any "BIG SWINGS".
It is just my guess that RR/BC control the levers of the PPT, not AG. I believe he is helpless to stop it with out using a big stick rate hike that he is loath to employ in view of the accellerating agony unfolding in Asia. Some kind of concerted action is in play & letting Au pop above $315 is not in the cards as long as they can maintain control of the deal. But there's the rub. How long can they keep this inflated beer barrel under it's natural equilibrium level ? Unless they can indeed make a slow & orderly deflation of US securities prices & USD devaluation, it can happen real fast. If not it's a blow off top in August/October.
Stay tuned fellow AU AIR CADETS & watch for obvious PPT manipulation of S&P 500 index contracts which turns the market away from rational correction points or moves up on rally stupid or bad news ! Also note that USD is already turning coat against the D-Mark. Comparing it to the Yen is aberational, because from here on out with the trade deficit exploding & the Nippon banks & Nikkei imploding, it will be a battle between a two headed Cyclops & a blind mouse !



(Thu May 07 1998 19:18 - ID#153102)
LGB, As far as I am concerned, people of your type are a menace to society. You can take "the healthcare system" and stick it where the sun don't shine.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:19 - ID#288155)
What Bill, Al & Bob really talked about..."It's the dollar, stupid!" {:-))
"And then the phone rings at your bedside at three oclock in the morning. The markets in Tokyo and Singapore are open and there is a run on your currency--all sellers, no buyers. And then the London market is open, and your currency doesnt have a friend left. The sellers go right through the perimeter defenses without a swig from their canteens; you throw your swaps and your lines and they eat them all up and keep right on coming, the swaps only slow down a platoon here and a platoon there, the rest of the sellers look like the Chinese army, they just keep coming, no respect for human life.

You call up the Bundesbank and the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan and you say, Mayday! You guys could at least make a little clatter in the background, some smoke, some action, divert them, somebody just ran by my bedroom. You call up your board and tell them to get their shoes and socks on and meet you at the office.

Then you call the President and tell him you have just seen fingers come over the windowsill, this is it, ;you are about to put the interest rates up to 20% and drain all the money out of the banks.

The President is no economist, but he can understand what an interest rate at 20% means, Are you crazy? he s reams. Youll throw the country into a depression Car dealers cant pay twenty percent on their showroom cars! and the tires--the glass--Michigan! There goes Michigan! Steel! Pennsylvania! There goes Pennsylvania! Home builders...

You say, Then youd better be prepared to close the exchanges, maybe the banks; this bunch went right through the perimeter defenses; and otherwise I dont want to be responsible and I resign.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 07 1998 19:22 - ID#212323)
Sometimes I can be SO stoopid...
Bank FOR International SettlementS, not as I typed using "of" and no "s". Please forgive me... I shant post ever again.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:29 - ID#153102)
A man of music like yourself has the blessing of more than one world to visit. The chord, the tone, by sound revealing to those with ears to hear another stream of true and permanent knowledge.

Enjoy your company here.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:29 - ID#288295)
Aragorn III @ 19:09

4 stars....great analogy!

(Thu May 07 1998 19:30 - ID#217268)
mozel @17:57 and LGB @16:25
These posts summarize very well the difference between public perception as distributed by the television and reality. People's perception is their reality. It just amazes me what people believe because they saw it on TV!!! Take a look at who owns television ... big business. One would do well to gather information from a variety of source-types ( TV, radio, print, WEB, etc ) .

My hat is off to both of you today.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:31 - ID#34857)
Anyone know of a good coin dealer in Dallas, Texas, USA?

(Thu May 07 1998 19:31 - ID#258142)
@rhody, 8:10
You question was: "Do the 11 member states in the EURO monetary group presently have enough gold in CB reserves to back the EURO at even 5%?" To my knowledge, these 11 states have bit more gold, then USA

(Thu May 07 1998 19:32 - ID#31868)
By George, I think you are on to something. The www is loaded with
info on red wheat, no recipes.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:33 - ID#288295)

I think Dillon Gage is in Dallas...give em a call - one of the top 3 or 4 dealers, with very competitive prcing.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:35 - ID#401460)

Thank You, these are interesting times, arn't they.


(Thu May 07 1998 19:37 - ID#210235)
@ICQ Update
Heres the ICQ list. Noticed the Kitco Bar & Grill is open. Enjoy!

Aurator - 11944264

Donald - 11928983

Eldorado - 12063388

G-NuTs - 2493116

Hedgehog - 12163846

Hipshot - 9114582

Kitco Bar & Grill - 11998901

Paul - 6118980

Polarbear - 1296586

Prometheus - 11961385

Sam - 11922834

Sharefin - 11918936

Squirrel - 11954224

Steve Blizard - 11925719

Studio.r - 11949731

Tyler Rose - 11940452

Tyro - 12179114

Wombat - 11918911

(Thu May 07 1998 19:43 - ID#335190)
Doctor: The word doctor, in Latin, means "teacher" The Latin word "docere" translates "to teach". When you go to your doctor you should expect not only to get well, but to learn about health and healing also.

If you want to learn and your "doctor" doesn't want to "teach" you, then it is suggested, you go get a real "doctor". A good "teacher" is also a student - otherwise there is soon nothing to "teach"

My take, yes, there is a "Cancer Industry" as there is a "Welfare Industry".

FWIW.........Take Care

(Thu May 07 1998 19:46 - ID#290118)
SDR is as sane as the rest of us!
Welcome back SDRer - looks like you are in great health!
A site to check in on - if you do already then its old news.
It looks like info on South African GOLD mining companies, etc.
complete with current stock quotes and links to chat groups - a circle right back to us at Kitco!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 19:49 - ID#384350)
LGB, Natural Cures
Sure there must be a lot of fraudulent cures out there, but seeing the steps the govt is taking ( US Healthcare and Portability Act of 96 which authorizes seizure of doctor's property ) to outlaw herbal remedies only proves in my eyes there are better cures out there. The fact that many pharmaceutical executives are on the boards of many cancer research organizations should show a conflict of interest.

Knowing that pharmaceutical companies cannot patent natural occurring plant, animal, or minerals, the only medicines they push are therefore unnatural to the human body and usually have side effects. Finding a suitable species on which to test these drugs is another topic altogether.

If you know someone who was taken advantage of by a charlatan selling snake oil, you should have stated so in an objective manner.

Using foul language directed at Mozel as an individual is uncalled for. It almost leads me to believe you might be a shareholder in one of the big pharmaceuticals.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:49 - ID#288140)
Don't have a double-pan balance. Vodka is free, all other libations, a pinch of gold dust.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:55 - ID#227238)
Mozel @17:53: Awesome, my friend. Just, simply, awesome. The last paragraph will be committed to memory.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:56 - ID#247190)
I saw a few days ago where someone posted a link to a transcript from an April report given by "Frank Venerroso". Can anyone please tell me where that can be found? Thanks in advance.

Of interest? From the "Wierd News" section of my local newspaper, Maybe most already know this,

According to a march report in "The New Republic," some Wall Street investment houses celebrate the incredible bull market by engaging in ritual worship of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

One firm holds a cake party and songfest on Greenspan's March 6 birthday, and another has outfitted a special office with Greenspan memorabilia and a red leather chair in which bond traders can sit and meditate on the great man.

Takes all kinds.

Maybe old news also to most but there is a push to issue an indictment on Microsoft before the launch of Windows98 which would no doubt hold up the release which would no doubt hurt the market.

Similar news is out on Intel as well.

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 19:57 - ID#209265)
Mozel - oops . . . found a mistake in my post
Scratch my comment about Naessens being in his mid-eighties, he's in his mid-seventies.

You were talking about some problems I had with the article you posted. I haven't been able to check the in the sources I have, so take them as tentative: i ) I seem to recall the theoretical limit of resolution of Naessens' microscope being 150 nm, not 150 , and I think to get that resolution you would have to use 300 nm light, which is very short-wavelength, high-energy uv.

Practically, I think people are getting 200-300 nm resolution, but that is fabulous, given that the best conventional 'scopes can get only 1000 nm resolution. Confocal microscopes can get close to that ( less than 500 nm resolution ) but with much more complicated and expensive hardware.

ii ) I think Ms. Hiller misconstrued Pasteur's comments in his later years. Discoveries of just how the immune system worked, including antibody proteins would explain the conundrums that stymied Pasteur. Also reports of deathbed comments can be notoriously apocryphal.

iii ) The attribution of the 'hormone' Trephone to Alexis Carrel is apocryphal. Carrel did many wonderful things, including the founding of the science of in vitro cell culture, but he did not isolate a "Trephone" as far as I know. Perhaps you can dig up some info. on this. Trephone is a postulated substance invented by Naessens.

There are some severe theoretical problems with Naessens' idea that somatids are energy-matter transduction points. Also, as far as I know, no one has been able to isolate these structures to see whether they even have any physiology at all. Nontheless- his microscope is a great invention, and if it hadn't been for the war and the political issues between him and the scientific establishment, there would have been some great discoveries made with it before the 1990's. He has also managed to do some amazing things with cancer sufferers, and I don't think psychosomatic effects can explain it all away- but I don't think he knows how his treatments work either. Also, Naessens is getting too old to do any more lab work, so it will depend on others to cull what good can be derived from his work.

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 19:58 - ID#43460)
Darn, just when I thought I had something, looking for an alternative to the gold standard
Well, guys, the lettuce standard is kaput!

(Thu May 07 1998 19:58 - ID#57232)
You certainly know how to say alot with a few words!
mozel: Got a kick out of your dialogue with --- ( you know who ) . I thought you'd like some info I have on Medical history. First, is that Frenchman everyone is talking about the fellow that had connections with Wilhelm Reich and the 'Orgone'? The comment someone made about UV giving higher resolution is correct due to the aperture wavelength effect. However there are now other optical microscopes with even higher resolution -- the 'near field scanning microscope'. Also IBM labs ( Switzerland ) recently demostrated photographic resolution with different devices down to single atom level, but they do not work with biological systems, yet.

Wilhelm Reich was a former student of Sigmund Freud who somehow was too much for that german guru of psychiatry, and moved to the US to enlarge on his 'Orgone' theory. He reminds me of Tesla. While I have not been able to decipher Reich's works into terminology I can understand, or analyse his experiments, what the FDA did to him was appalling. Whatever you think about the truth or falsehood of his experiments, he was a brilliant person, and as far as I can tell, never defrauded anyone. But -- the medical/political establishment proceeded to destroy him anyway.

By the way, what I think Wilhelm Reich was on to is that he was probably looking at the 'Aether' or zero point energy. I am not saying that all of his claims were correct, as he never spoke in terms a modern physical scientist would understand, but you have to realize that he was trained as a psychiatrist. He could have discovered something, but just used the wrong terminology to describe it, and got attacked by the establishment. Pons and Fleischmann made a similar mistake. His 'orgone energy' boxes look just like electrostatic shields to me -- what one would need to assay the electrostatic potential of the atmosphere. This electrostatic potential is variable, and affected by solar activity, as well as being linked to our weather. However, I see no way Wilhelm Reiches atmospheric modification guns could work ( but I am willing to be convinced ) . Another point -- we now know from studies of electrons captured in laser beams that the apparent mass of an electron is dependent on the intensity of that beam, and that spontaneous nuclear decay is not that spontaneous after all, and somehow driven by the virtual photons of the ZPE. Perhaps the electrostatic potential of the earth's atmosphere, too.

So -- my point is that the suppression of Wilhelm Reich's work may very well have set back the study of ZPE well over 50 years. Wilhelm Reich need not have been correct with his interpretation of his work -- but he did not need to be -- all that was needed was that others would try to understand and reinterpret his findings. I suspect that the Frenchman discussed today is much the same.

I guess this also demonstrates another aspect of human behavior: Ideas that appear to be in direct violation of accepted standards of practice are ridiculed and suppressed, especially if these ideas are not easily understood. Those who suppress individuals like Wilhelm Reich will not be stopped simply because he has harmed or defrauded noone.

Hope you enjoyed this.

(Thu May 07 1998 19:58 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - well, the deed is done. The Shaman hangs in the smoke-house.
Well, at least the Cuervo Central dogs will eat well in a few days.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:00 - ID#26793)
How to test your computer for Y2K

(Thu May 07 1998 20:00 - ID#267344)
I asked a question last night which no one answered. Was it that stupid of a question or did no one out there really have an answer? Here it is again:
Would someone who advocates inflation please explain to me how you can have an equities crash and inflation at the same time period?? One or the other in my book, not both. Either way, BE PREPARED
- c

(Thu May 07 1998 20:01 - ID#288295)
Silverbaron (henryD) ID#288295:
Thanks, Sil ... I'll look 'em up.


(Thu May 07 1998 20:03 - ID#31868)
clone - I saw the question, and I have pondered this myself, but I cannot say
that I have a handle on how to put my thoughts into words yet on the subject.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:04 - ID#247190)
I keep seeing posts concerning the possibility of Gold @ 250. I've not seen anyone discuss the technicals on that, Can anyone explain the theory on that? Or point me to a website that does?

(Thu May 07 1998 20:05 - ID#267344)
and here is tonight's questions (in eight parts):
How many imbeded chips are present in your average US nuclear warhead and support systems? Russian? Chinese? British? Isreali? Iranian? French? What is being done about this quiet issue?
- c

(Thu May 07 1998 20:07 - ID#244446)
Confidence in Government as the key to the price of gold.


The following is snipped together from two articles on the Princeton Economics Institute website at




If you had to reduce the movements of all market and economic activity down into a single solitary influential explanation, the one single word which I would chose to describe such a force would obviously be CONFIDENCE! At first, you might be moved to take exception to this or perhaps simply say "big deal!" But the aspect of Confidence is indeed a big deal. It may even be much greater than you are perhaps willing to consider just yet.

Confidence is the most dominant force within all market and economic activity. Beyond question, Confidence can be historically illustrated as a major force which all markets must contend with right from the days of Rome to the period surrounding the election of Ronald Reagan as President of the United States. Indeed we will look back at the change in guard at the Federal Reserve and one day soon reflect thereupon just how things gradually changed when Volcker left. Greenspan, although highly respected as an economist, lacks the central bank experience which Volcker had attained while rising through the rank and file.

Nevertheless, in this month's report, we will deal with another form of Confidence which perhaps strikes directly home within us all every time we make an investment decision. It is the Confidence factor which is also the single most critical and dominant force behind each and everyone of our decisions on an individual level. When combined among the multitudes, not only will Confidence move markets, but it can move the very powers of government as well!

Whenever we consider what we might read in a market commentary such as in this monthly report, whether or not we actually take any specific action upon the such prognostications, depends entirely upon our level of Confidence, or the lack thereof. Our own personal convictions as to the reliability of what we have just read forms a part of our level of Confidence as well. If we do not honestly believe in what we read, there is no way in heaven, hell or whereever, that we will act upon it.

In most cases, the average individual will sit back and wait until things have been proven within his own mind before he will be moved to action. This basic human instinct, we might refer to skepticism or a lack of Confidence, governs many various aspects within our lives.

( from another article )


The illustration of gold's rise in the face of declining confidence in government is endless. The hoarding of gold was so severe during the Great Depression that Roosevelt ended up outlawing the private ownership of gold and confiscated everything the government could find. Quite a drastic police state tactic. Nevertheless, it did happen here in the United States!

In this brief overview of financial history, one striking common theme arises from the trials and tribulations of man - gold rises NOT as a hedge against mere inflation, but as a hedge against the UNSOUND PRACTICES OF GOVERNMENT and/or POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. Steady rising inflation DOES NOT act as an underlying support mechanism for gold. Its role within the modern investment strategy is a hedge against political and economic uncertainty. Gold has always risen the MOST when the confidence in the government is at its LOWEST!

( end of Armstrong articles. )


Comment: now think of Ed Yourdan's comment from yesterday. ( "The federal government as we know it will cease to exist on 1/1/2000, period." )

( Ed Yourdan is the author of 24 books on mainframe programming, the

editor of American Programmer magazine, and the author of the

best-selling book on the Year 2000 computer crash, "Timebomb 2000". )

(Thu May 07 1998 20:07 - ID#288295)
henryd @ Dillon Gage

I forgot that I had this info:

Dillon Gage / 15310 Dallas Pkwy, Suite 200, Dallas TX 75248 / ( 800 ) 375-4653

Good huntin' ( ;^ ) )

(Thu May 07 1998 20:07 - ID#43460)
clone, I don't advocate inflation but here goes
You have to figure in the large amount of so called "free government money" involved. IMHO

Suppose for the sake of argument, the equities market tanked tomorrow and all the citizens who normally work for private industry were to suddenly get pink slips. Well, where do you think they'd go? Right down to the unemployment office, where they'd all line up to get their free government checks; ( he ones who couldn't retire and get Social Security or who couldn't cobble up a disability to get on SSD that is ) . IMHO

Less production + lots of money in the system = inflation, at least from the viewpoint of the average Joe on the street. The only thing that keeps inflation away now is the huge productivity of the handful of remaining workers. IMHO

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 07 1998 20:09 - ID#287367)
@ Steve in To
What you get from eating apple seeds is called "cyanide"

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 07 1998 20:10 - ID#287367)
@ Steve in To
Also known as prussic acid

(Thu May 07 1998 20:12 - ID#267344)
Scito - the best answer I can give you:
Gold will go to $250 only over my dead body. In other words... I have absolutely no idea. The suggestion baffles me. On the other hand, stranger things have happened... I think!? uh, haven't they?
- c

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 20:14 - ID#209265)
Silverbaron - don't worry, apricot pits won't kill you.
It's not cyanide ( CN- ) that apricot pits & apple seeds contain. The Laetrile molecule contains a cyano- ( CO ) group, but it's no more toxic that the flavour molecules in almonds and onions, which both contain it as well.

My guinea pig & I have happily munched these seeds side-by-side for years. Alex Cavey Ross, our rodent friend, has eaten huge quantities of them- the bodyweight equivalent of me eating a few pounds in one sitting, and he has squeaked for more!

You must not eat rotten ones, though, since in rare instances cyanide can be released. There have been some instances of severe poisoning by this- and not just apple seeds or apricot pits. People have been poisoned by rotten almonds as well.

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 20:14 - ID#288155)
OOPs! 'Bad night for the Chariman'...attribution seems to have been
sliced off in the posting! It is from a book called "Paper Money", circa 1982 or so, by Adam Smith. Sorry George!

Mozel--What a splendid structure you are building, solid
post by solid post.

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 07 1998 20:14 - ID#287367)
@ Henry D
Heritage Rare Coin Galleries is at 100 Highland Park Village, Dallas, tel. 528-3500. Ask for Chris Lane.

Richard Burke
(Thu May 07 1998 20:14 - ID#411318)
Inflation & equities
Scito: This is really Economics 100 which is about as far as I go. The simple answer is that when inflation hits, interest rates move up through central bank action in order to contain the inflation. When interest rates move up, investors buy bonds and sell equities to do so. Thus you have inflation and a poor equity market at the same time. There are a lot of variations of this, however. Hope tht helps.

Richard Burke
(Thu May 07 1998 20:18 - ID#411318)
Error in Last Post
Clone: my last post was for you not Scito. Sorry Scito.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:21 - ID#288295)
steve in TO
I can absolutely, positively guarantee that they won't kill ME ( cause I wouldn't ever eat any ) .....all this stuff is off-topic, anyway. Who started this thread? Go gold and silver ( tomorrow ) ...Thank you.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:22 - ID#431263)
Hre's the way I would answer your question. Alan Greenspan! All he has to do is raise rates three times ( if it's half or whole point increases, he could do it with two ) and this bull market in equities is OVER! The mass panic out of equities will flood into THINGS ( STUFF ) and drive up the price of all commodities at the same time the equities markets are imploding! Then we will truly have the WORST of all worlds--an imploding economy at the same time we have rising commodity prices for things! This is called STAGFLATION and it is measured as in the 70's by the dreaded MISERY INDEX, a combination number of interest rates, unemployment stats and commodity prices!

Another way this could come about would be the substitution of the EURO for the US dollar as a world reserve currency and the currency of choice for settling oil purchases! This would cause a dollar panic and send all those BILLIONS and BILLIONS of BUCKS back to the US to buy whatever you can get your grubby little hands on before their purchasing power is totally destroyed! This, too, would destroy the stock and bond markets and would lead to hyperinflation of STUFF! Pick your poison, mein Herr! No matter how you slice it--PAPER WILL BE DESTROYED IN SUCH A SCENARIO WHILE HARD ASSETS WILL BE BID TO RIDICULOUS NEW HEIGHTS LIKE GOLD AT $30,000.00/oz. ala ANOTHER!

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 20:23 - ID#209265)
Silverbaron - yet another mistake
Scratch the ( CO ) in my previous post & change it to ( CN ) . My proofreading skills would never get me an editor's job. I've had this happen with articles I've submitted too. Oh well- have to keep up my absent-mindedness skills!

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 20:26 - ID#288155)
What the Europeans say, but not to American media....
Prime Minister of Belgium
Hong Kong

In my opinion, the euro will progressively take over part of the dollar's role as a major reserve currency, as happened when the US-dollar took over from sterling in the post-war years. ALREADY NOW, OBSERVERS DETECT A DIVERSIFICATION OF INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIOS AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR TOWARDS EUROPEAN CURRENCIES. ONE CAN ASSUME THAT CENTRAL BANKS, TOO, WILL PARTLY SHIFT FROM DOLLAR TO EURO RESERVES.

We [Europe] will NOT neglect our currency
( now to whom might he be referring )

Moreover, it is highly probable that sooner rather than later also the commercial use of the euro will be extended beyond the borders of the member states. I am convinced a lot of our trading partners will consider the euro as an anchor currency. They will probably use it as an invoicing currency and central banks may decide very soon to focus their monetary policy on the exchange rate between their currencies and the euro.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:26 - ID#288295)
Steve in TO

Guess what? CN IS CYANIDE. HCN IS PRUSSIC ACID. They used this stuff in NAZI gas chambers.

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu May 07 1998 20:29 - ID#284170)
The Fed has to pay those dividends
Steve Blizard's comments on previous post:
I noticed that $265 million was paid as DIVIDENDS from the Federal Reserve. I am of the understanding that dividends are those things paid to SHAREHOLDERS. I wonder WHO the shareholders of the Federal Reserve are? I wonder how long these shareholders have been receiving "dividends" from the credit creating entity of the USA?

Refer below:

Date: Thu May 07 1998 18:45
Tamerlane__A ( Fummer re: surplus ) ID#372276:
Copyright  1998 Tamerlane__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fummer, I was reviewing the Federal Reserve banks balance sheet also, and found the Fed transfer surplus to Treasury; as follows:
( millions of dollars )

Item: 1996


Current income25,164

Current expenses1,948

Operating expenses1,639

Earnings credit granted309

Current net income23,216

Net additions to ( deductions from, - ) current net income-1,639

Cost of reimbursed services to Treasury38

Assessments by the Board of Governors565

For expenditures of Board163

For cost of currency403

Net income before payments to Treasury20,975

Dividends paid265 ****

(Thu May 07 1998 20:30 - ID#431263)
FOR SCENARIO #2 read the last post before this one by SDRer!

(Thu May 07 1998 20:32 - ID#284255)
Clone - embedded chips?
How many embedded chips on an oil platform - underwater as well?
Recent article thought 30% compliancy possible.

How about a space satelite?
How about an aircraft carrier?

Your normal ocean going ship?

Smaller vessels?
I know we had 650hp GM diesels fitted throughout the fleet I worked with. These engines could be diagnosed and tuned via a telephone and a satelite link. The boat being in OZ and the technicians being in the US.

This is modern chip technology.

They are also prevalent throughout the farming sector.

I read a report - concerning modern farms, where they stated that the computer dependancy was proportional to the $value of the farms out put.
Multi-million $$ farms were 90% reliant on computers for efficiancy.

Modern technology suks - or soon will as we find out the truth.
You'd wonder how they could be so dumb.
Seems like they can't smell the roses for the chips in their brains.

Chas - send us an email

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 07 1998 20:34 - ID#209265)
Heh, heh . . . back on topic
Silverbaron. Mozel started the thread on 714X, Laetrile, &tc.. I guess we'd better bring it back on topic, though:

Just think, after the Dow party ends in a bubble-blowout fiasco, all the goldbugs on Kitco will be able to afford apricots, apples and other real fruit bought with their 1/10-ounce gold coins : ) , while their friends who lost everything in mutual funds will be eating hotdogs and soybeans : (

- Steve

(Thu May 07 1998 20:37 - ID#347457)
@LGB and medical science
LGB, your posts about medical treatments are very much in line with your posts about investing. You have amazing "binary" thinking once you make up your mind - something is either good or very bad - nothing in between. I can appreciate your feelings about cancer with you mother been unfortunate one. My dad died about 15 year ago. He waited too long to go for "latest medical advancements" ( too much of male ego thinking - it was a prostate cancer which spread to other areas ) . Irony of it is that when he eventually went for a chemotherapy, he ended up with unscrupulous licensed doctor ( who was later on sued and his medical privileges were suspended. ) who was using industrial chemicals for "chemotherapy" to increase his profit. This was in Washington D.C., not in some rural area. So you see, you don't need "unscientific" approach to medicine to die.

On the other side, you should know ( being on the edge of medical knowledge ) that many "alternative medicine" treatments, which used to be laughed at by "scientific community", are lately generally accepted, and paid for by the insurance companies. Many drugs were not discovered in medical research labs but modeled after primitive medicine practiced by tribes from the middle of nowhere.

There are many ways how to advance the science, and IT IS TRUE that some of the advancement is slowed down by competing experts who need to prove that their theory is the only one valid. Yes, there are many "charlatans" out there in "alternative treatment", but there are some real pearls too. Sometimes it takes forever for the US medical community and FDA to agree on some approaches or drugs. E.g., my wife was using some drugs back in Europe in 1977 which were approved by FDA only a couple of years ago. Not everything is black and white, however, that does not fit into your binary logic of thinking.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:37 - ID#288295)
clone, sharefin

Are these embedded chips made by a limited number of manufacturers? If so, buying those companies just after the Y2K nightmare makes everything really cheap might be a good thing to do, if they don't all immediately go belly-up. Looks like a there will be a heck of a demand for replacement chips.

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu May 07 1998 20:45 - ID#284170)
Asian Pacific Share Mkt this AM
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 8:44PM 2762.8 -18.0 -0.65%
Australia now 18 points below August 97 high.

India BSE 30 ^BSESN 8:08AM 4069.79 -77.50 -1.87%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 8:44PM 372.55 -6.92 -1.82%
A New black hole?
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 4:03AM 772.80 -4.80 -0.62%

(Thu May 07 1998 20:46 - ID#401460)

Greenspan at Chicago Fed Conference

..........while our burgeoning global system is efficient and makes a substantial
contribution to standards of living worldwide, that same efficiency exposes and punishes underlying economic imprudence swiftly and decisively.

These global financial markets, engendered by the rapid proliferation of cross-border financial flows and products, have developed a capability of transmitting mistakes at a far faster pace throughout the financial system in ways that were unknown a generation ago.


(Thu May 07 1998 20:46 - ID#20748)
and LGB, why use plain words
when you can write sentences like this.

Folks will believe their Hairdresser's stupid recommendations re some miracle herb, before they believe in millions of hours of hard scientific research. I have difficulty reconciling this with humananity's supposed ability to use deductive reasoning and logic in their approach to life.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:50 - ID#270231)
Is the yk2 problem as dire as some have said?
Why isn't washington talking about this?

(Thu May 07 1998 20:50 - ID#290118)
has a long established tradition among our kind.
Jed on Thu May 07 1998 18:10 wrote:
"I wonder when the backlash will come when one will start hearing from certain corners that anyone attempting to raise awareness of Y2K is a "fearmonger", "survivalist",.."

In my small rural community the schools graduate 60%, students have dismal performance on standardized tests, illiteracy is common, and financial mismanagment of the schools and other local governments par for the course because of a century-old tradition of graft, corruption and sweet deals among the good old boys.

Anyone criticizing the status quo is VILIFIED! The local newspaper found being libel free was not enough. The local school district superindendent notified the newspaper that:

"Unless we hear from you regarding significant changes in policy regarding letters to the editor, we will immediately cancel our organization subscriptions, encourage all 250+ of our employees to do likewise, and withdraw all advertising dolllars. You may also be interested to know that both our corporate attorney and my personal attorney are reviewing recent letters to the editor to determine whether or not legal action may be appropriate."

A followup letter from this same budding Nazi continued with -

"...the lack of clear parameters and policies regarding the length, frequency and tone of letters to the editor have given us legal, moral, ehtical and professional reasons for concern..."

This subversive behavior was brought to the attention of everyone in the Rocky Mountain Region by Ed Quillen in the Denver Post on 4/28/98.
What scares me is that this superintendent will now be recruited by some large city school district because she exemplifies what superindendents every where should strive to do. Earlier this year she was chosen as Colorado School Superintendent of the Year.

Time to crawl into a cave with the bears - and pull all my GOLD, SILVER, food, water, guns, ammo, clothing, medicines, and finally the hole in with me!

(Thu May 07 1998 20:51 - ID#335190)
Derivatives @ Legal Uncertainty
U.S. officials cite concerns on derivatives plan

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Three top U.S. officials issued a rare joint statement Thursday expressing grave concerns about a plan that could change the way the U.S. over-the-counter derivatives market is regulated.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt said the plan unveiled Thursday could increase legal uncertainty about certain types of derivatives.

(Thu May 07 1998 20:51 - ID#426220)

mozel: REF Your "Date: Thu May 07 1998 17:53 mozel ( @A Peculiar World & The Goldbug ) -

When and if possible I should like to talk with you via email:

(Thu May 07 1998 21:00 - ID#290118)
Embedded Processors
Silverbaron - Motorola has embarked on a long term program to become even more committed to production of embedded processors. The company warrants watching for its potential to supply replacements ( at exhorbitant prices because of desperate demands ) . But the gov't would likely then step in and make them sell chips cheap - can't have any price gouging. Except at the gas pumps, grocery stores, sporting supply shops, etc.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:01 - ID#426220)

Despite massive buying of securities by the BOJ, the Nikkei is
dropping again.

Can one imagine what corporate life and lack of efficiency will be like when the Central Bank ownes all the shares of private industry?!
Is not that scenario reminisicent of the USSR -- and subsequent

(Thu May 07 1998 21:01 - ID#288295)

Because to speak of it would be to admit the one thing they cannot admit - that they are not in control, and that the situation cannot be fixed in time.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:03 - ID#258142)
100-day Moving average
There was several messages today about price crossing 100-days moving average. Yes, indeed, it crossed. I usually use two moving averages - longer term and short. In attached chart we have 100 days exponential moving average as a red line and 30 days exponential moving average as blue. As we can see, shorter term moving average is above longer term one and that leaves hope.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:04 - ID#284255)
Don't you just love it when you bring the subject of Y2K up.
I told a friend of 20 years the other day and held out some top-notch reports to back up my words.
She rolled her eyes back and picked up the Cleo magazine.
Nuff said.

Her and her likes will be the ones to sufer as they deny any posibility of Y2K being real.
They will still be in denial all the way up to the countdown.
They will be the last to stock up on food and get money out of their bank.

Fortunately 99% of the worlds masses have this attitude which gives the other 1% a fighting chance.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:07 - ID#335184)
T1's Shaman - He's not dead yet ! Maybe he's only stunned into an Au Trance !
Perhaps he will rise in the morning with the POG !
Au is still holding above the Magic # 298.50. If the trance is broken below this close it's time to get a new Shaman or Elliot Wave palm
reader !
Wild Turkey to ya !



(Thu May 07 1998 21:10 - ID#26645)
Intrinsic value of Gold
In 1982 Alan Thompson wrote a book titled The Gold Formula. In this book he detailed a formula for calculating the intrinsic value of gold by dividing the face value of the paper component of world monetary reserves by the quantity of the gold component of those reserves. The company he co-founded as well as his publisher have no knowledge of his whereabouts. I would be grateful if anyone has information of how to contact Alan or anyone who is following on his work. I would also appreciate any comments on his method of establishing an intrinsic value for gold.

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu May 07 1998 21:11 - ID#284170)
Greenspan speech jewels
Don't you just hate it when various moronic local finance ministers say that "you can't create credit" & "that is looney tune stuff!". Funny,
they haven't been reading what Mr Greenspan has been saying in Chicago in the last 24 hours...

"Only a central bank, with its unlimited power to CREATE money"
( in middle of the speech )

(Thu May 07 1998 21:12 - ID#43460)
Miro, you can lead a horse to water, but if you can convince him to float on his back
like a person, then you've really accomplished something. Here is a reference for those who are interested in cancer treatments. You'd be surprised how many herbal remedies are found among the ranks of 'establishment' medicine.

In deference to our sponsor I must point out that gold salts, injected into the muscle, are used as a modern medical treatment for arthritis. Ouch!

(Thu May 07 1998 21:14 - ID#401460)
Steve - Perth__A

You Ask: Iwonder WHO the shareholders of the Federal Reserve are?
The Federal Reserve: The Engine of Power
Some good info, check it out.
Posted here a while back,
Spud Master - I saw this a while back on a BGO line post, it was in response to a question similar to yours. I don't know if it is true or not - if some one can confirm any of it I would appreciate.
o: John Soileau ( 7247 )
From: John Barendrecht
Oct 1 1997 1:28AM EST
Reply #7258 of 7266

Some facts about the Fed from an article by the Oracle of Alberta

In 1792 the U.S. dollar was conceived and was made equivalent to 24.75 grains of gold.

In 1797 John Adams warned Thomas Jefferson that control over the issuance of money should
never fall into the hands of private interests, as it had in the case of the Bank of England and
Bank of France.

On December 13, 1913 President Woodrow Wilson helped establish the Federal Reserve
System ( the U.S. central bank ) with equity financing of $1 billion from private merchant banks.
The Fed, with its 12 Federal Reserve Banks, would be run by a board of private merchant
bankers and would have absolute powers to manipulate the U.S. money supply.

June 10, 1932, Louis T. McFadden, chair of the House Banking and Currency Committee states
that "some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions.
They are not Government Institutions. They are private credit monopolies that prey upon the
people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign and domestic
swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders."

The New York Federal Reserve bank, the largest of the 12 Reserve Banks, provides a unique
custodial responsibility for gold, including storing about one-third of the world's official gold stock
( 12,000 tons ) on behalf of about sixty countries, central banks, and international organizations.

According to an article by Harvey Martin, those names have only recently been revealed through
Standard and Poor sources. The top controllers of the top Federal Reserve Bank in New York

Rothschild banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb Bank of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York ( Rockefeller ) , which controls all of the other 11 Reserve
Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.

The Rockefeller banking group owns 22 percent of shares of the Federal Reserve Bank in New
York and holds 53 percent of the shares in the Federal Reserve System.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:14 - ID#28994)
Germany Wins
With the advent of the Euro, it is quite possible that Germany after two world wars will be the undisputed ruler of Europe. France ,Italy , and Spain which are considered three of the leaders, are economic basket cases. None of these countries have gone thru restructuring. There whole economies revolve around large susidies and high taxes.

Large susidies,high taxes and idiotic regulations are not a good mix for succesfull economies.The only way Italy could qualify for the G7 financialy was to count 20% for there underground economy, which in all probability was much larger. For anyone that reads much history they know that the French are really not the sharpest knives in the drawer.Spain does make some good leather goods and cheap Red Eye, but they sleep all afternoon, they could not hold Germanys underwear.

Keep a sharp eye.. The Germans are smart, very aggressive .

And will rule Europe.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:16 - ID#342376)
"Modern Medicine Dumber than a Fungus"
I apologise to my fellow Kitcoites about continuing the off-topic post. As to LGB. I am glad that you and your family have been helped by Modern Medicine. It certainly has produced many miracles. Most of these are in acute situations however. For chronic problems, mostly what Modern Medicine does is to just cover up symptoms. For pain, take a pain killer, for inflamation, take an anti-inflamatory, etc. All this does is to drive the disease process deeper. There is a crisis brewing that has resulted from the over use of Antibiotics that could get us all. The Pharmaceutical Industry has this idea of a "magic bullet". Penicillin is a good example of this. It was discovered from mold and the idea was to find what "active" ingredient in this mold keeps bacteria from growing near it. Of course, the mold developed over millions of years and developed hundreds of co-factors that work together because it knew that resistance would develope if it produced only one active ingredient. When only one active ingredient is there, it is a very specific mechanism that can be overcome by bacteria easily. Nature is far smarter than our Scientists who "discovered" penicillin. Modern Medicine's concept of the body does not understand energy or energy fields that are in and around the body. Orgone energy is one example given on this thread. The Chinese Concept of qi or homeopathy's concept of vital life force are other examples. They all deal with this energy field. It can be photographed by Kirlian Photograpghy. It does exist. This field becomes disruted and dis-ease can result. It's about supplying the right "frequency" to restore health with the proper homeopathic rememdy or Acupuncture point to name some examples. People don't believe in what they don't understand or have a "map" of. Modern Medicine's map of the body isn't wrong, it's just not complete.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:18 - ID#284255)
I was wondering if you would care to pass on your opinion.
You being in the middle of the Y2K war.

The question;
With all the new information coming in regarding Y2k problems,
Do you think that the situation has worsened or improved?

On a scale of 1 to 10.
Where would you have rested your opinion two months ago,
And where would say it sits now?

Thanks in advance. Nick

Richard Burke
(Thu May 07 1998 21:19 - ID#411318)
XAU /Gold Ratio and Gold Stocks
Carl: You sometimes post about this time. I hope I catch you lurking. Please check my post of 15:56 this afternoon. Since then I read your post of April 30 and the accompanying chart again. Can you explain to me how your chart would reconcile or not with my observations. My observations in summary are: ( 1 ) as gold goes up or down the percentage changes in the XAU are greater than the percentage changes in gold. This means that the XAU/gold ratio willl increase more rapidly than gold as gold rises and fall more rapidly than gold as gold falls. One might think that for every price of gold there might be a small range of XAU values. Your chart seems to say that this is not so. To turn it around to your chart's view - for every value of the XAU there has been in the past a very wide range of gold values. I would like to discuss this further with you. Richard

(Thu May 07 1998 21:21 - ID#290118)
Motorola in year 2000
FWIW ( given it is a company site ) check out
for their version of how compliant their chips, pagers, radios, etc. will be.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:21 - ID#342315)
SDRer re your 19:19
It looks like a preview of coming attractions. Have you got a date?!!

(Thu May 07 1998 21:21 - ID#393224)
G'day Delphi/Sharefin
Delphi--just love that chart, mate. Please post at regular intervals.

Finny--In Jan. 2000, your friend will be at your doorstep begging for a few morsels of food. Then she'll go down and join the mob at the bank.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:21 - ID#401460)
skinny (Germany Wins)

I think you left out The United States of America.

When Germany unified , my Father said; "Watch Germany now, when they get going they will be powerful, they have the best tool and die makers in the world."

They now have Chrysler.

This M1 / Tiger Tank thing really is bothering me. And,

Remember when the American people loaned Chrysler Millions when they were going under, little did they know they were financing a German Company.


(Thu May 07 1998 21:23 - ID#215208)
Delphi - I like your charts but they are very blurry, at least on my monitor. Try saving them as a .gif file. If this option isn't available, you can download GraphicWorkshop from and convert to .gif format. It will convert anything to anything. On the other hand, maybe its just me, I haven't been getting enough sleep lately. :- ) )

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu May 07 1998 21:26 - ID#284170)
Thanks Highrise. I knew some of the names. I am always looking for the current shareholders, not just the shareholders in 1913.
Jn 3:16 Steve Blizard

(Thu May 07 1998 21:27 - ID#153102)
@vronsky, earl, SDRer and other kind commentators
vronsky, churchillian ? whoa ! Even I am not so vain as to credit such a mismatch between my ambition and my ability.

Earl, SDRer, et. al., your appreciation is a valued reward.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:29 - ID#28994)
High Rise
The Zecks are also supherb metal workers.
Your daddys mother did not raise no dummy. He will be proven right.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:30 - ID#258142)
Nick@C, 21:21
Thanks. Will do

(Thu May 07 1998 21:32 - ID#31868)
newtron - alas, the Shaman hangs in the smoke-house. The tribe here at
Cuervo Central can be harsh. But a new days dawns, our new Shaman is out huddled near the fire preparing for the morning.

We shall see whether or not he has been motivated by the fumes from the smoke-house.

Gulp a Cuervo back at ya...

(Thu May 07 1998 21:34 - ID#290118)
sharefin wrote:
"They will still be in denial all the way up to the countdown. They will be the last to stock up on food and get money out of their bank. Fortunately 99% of the worlds masses have this attitude which gives the other 1% a fighting chance."
The 99% are what scares me. Hopefully 99% of them die quietly or chew each other up ( maybe literally ) before they get to me. That still leaves 70,000 of 'em running around the Colorado Rockies rabidly looking for food. They will be armed ( they won't make it far if they aren't ) .
Fighting I do not wish to do. I would rather hide in a hole until the storm blows over.
But if they find me I'll be chewing on them. I've laid in an extra few cases of barbecue sauce and salt. One problem though. Fresh onions don't keep well. I'll have to get a case each of garlic and onion powder.
Second problem - the vermin will be infested with disease and vermin.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:36 - ID#30116)
clone @20:00
Inflation with a crash in equities? Sure can happen. How? Inflation rises, the Fed acts by 'tightening', the market reacts ( down ) , inflation does not slow because the Fed is 'behind the curve'. The bond market sells off and rates rise further. Stocks are seen as a losing investment due to faultering earnings from the Fed 'tightening' and higher costs of labor and raw materials. And so it goes. Just one possible scenario of course. The key is fiat money and fractional reserve banking...

(Thu May 07 1998 21:36 - ID#210235)
I am shocked, simply shocked, that you were able to gather together another queue of wannna-be Shamans, given your sorry treatment of the last one. Is it the Cuervo?

(Thu May 07 1998 21:37 - ID#401460)
Steve Perth_A

I thought this was fairly current? But I am not sure.

"...RECENTLY been revealed through
Standard and Poor sources. The top controllers of the top Federal Reserve Bank in New York

Rothschild banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb Bank of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York ( Rockefeller ) , which controls all of the other 11 Reserve
Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.

The Rockefeller banking group owns 22 percent of shares of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York and holds 53 percent of the shares in the Federal Reserve System."


(Thu May 07 1998 21:37 - ID#258142)
DJ, 21:23 (jpg)
OK. I have "true color" on my screen - 16M colors - did not realize that in other situation my charts may look not so nice

(Thu May 07 1998 21:39 - ID#401460)

Yes, except it appears that they are reducing the supply of Bonds in an effort to support the price.


(Thu May 07 1998 21:39 - ID#34857)
Silverbaron/Crystal Ball
Thank you both. I'll check these out tomorrow.

CB; Heritage is just around the corner from my house. Goes to show you what I know about my own neighborhood! ( duh ) .


(Thu May 07 1998 21:40 - ID#287312)
Free thinkers !
As I've lurked here for several months, posting now and then it has become obvious that most people here are conservative, free thinkers. All Such people who are American citizens should have this site bookmarked.
Paper is man's money, Gold is God's money, where's your faith.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:41 - ID#335190)
Wilhelm Reich @ Book Burning by USofA FDA (Common Law eh!)


Plaintiff having filed a Complaint for Injunction herein to enjoin the defendants and others from further alleged violations of the Federal Food, Drug, and **Cosmetic** Act;

[The works of Wilhelm Reich listed above in paragraph 5 have been withheld from the general public. The material listed in paragraph 6, including his books and other publications, was burned under the supervision of agents of the Food and Drug Administration: This occurred on August 2S, 1956, and, again, as recently as March 17, 1960. Ed.]

From the court record, U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, Wilhelm Reich, et. al., v. U.S.A.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:41 - ID#403272)
To HighRise (Federal Reserve)
Good Post! I never new this, I'm printing the web site as we speak. If not the Federal Reserve Bank, who does A.G. control? Alan must do more than raise and lower rates? I really am confused?? Are thier two reserve banks or what? I''m sorry I just jumped on my machine and maybe this was discussed earlier. I will print out what was said throughout the night in the morning. If not, please explain.


(Thu May 07 1998 21:43 - ID#431263)
What Greenie is obviously saying is that when the world finally realizes how many US bonds, notes and bills the FED has monetized secretly for the Japanese to bail out their failing economy and stock market, the US DOLLAR and its equities markets will be trashed with lightning speed just like Asia--only worse! Bear markets need no longer take days, weeks, months and years--they now can happen in a FLASH! And if it can happen to paper, it can also happen in reverse to gold! And when it happens, ya' better have some in hand, because at that point there won't be any!

(Thu May 07 1998 21:43 - ID#30116)
It helps to keep the file size under 50 K bytes also, it takes less time to load.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:43 - ID#252150)
Clone@A Stock mkt crash & inflation at the same time
You're not the only one wondering about it. There are millions in SEAsia who are faced with that particular conundrum.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:43 - ID#258142)
Good night
Good night, everybody

(Thu May 07 1998 21:44 - ID#288369)
@T#1.........chilled cuervo..........served with..............
thinly sliced smoked shaman, pickled capers and extra virgin olive oil........a GoldBug ( gulp )

(Thu May 07 1998 21:45 - ID#30116)
'The best laid plans...'

(Thu May 07 1998 21:47 - ID#31868)
Prometheus - without question, it is the
Tequila! STUDIO_R - We shall know by Sunday if the Smoked Shaman is any good, ( if not, he goes to the yard dogs ) pickled capers and olive oil, nice touch. Gulp to ya.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:48 - ID#341189)
@Richard Burke
If you're still out there, yes, the chart you refer to was meant to illustrate just the point you say. There have indeed been a very wide range of gold prices associated with every level of the XAU since its inception.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:51 - ID#31868)
All - I have so many friends and family who act if Y2K will never happen, they
think it is just some money making scheme. A great many of these people plan on going in to NYC for the NYE party.

I shall be sailing or docked in the Keys. Certain computer items will be on board, but for the most part, anything to do with computers will be out of my life in roughly 6 months. No muss, no fuss.

Two months rations on board, fresh air and all the fish you can catch.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:52 - ID#401460)

Just one Federal Reserve Central Bank with several member Reserve Banks Branches.

Read that URL I posted earlier for a history.

Also read Greenspan @ Chicago URL that I posted earlier, for Fed concerns and future Fed action and policy.

AG is in control, if not obvious now it will soon be.

However, one does get the impression from his speech that all of this derivative leveraging may be out of control and that he has some doubt as to what to do about it.

I don't know anymore. This is a New World Disorder.


(Thu May 07 1998 21:53 - ID#210235)
Red wine works too. You just have to try harder.

(Thu May 07 1998 21:58 - ID#401460)

That's kinda how I read it.


John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 21:58 - ID#17470)
I'd be very interested in seeing the chart you refer to. I've wondered for some time whether there is an historical high and low range to which spot gold and the XAU relate to each other. My guess has been that it is a chicken or the egg conundrum as to which moves first etc.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:00 - ID#153102)
@6Pak @JTF
Drugs like broadcasting were taken out of the jurisdiction of the common-law by Treaty.
I have in my possession a page from a Sears Roebuck Catalog from around 1903 on which is listed opium available for ordering and delivery via the US postal service.
You can heckle the foundations in law which allow you to express yourself on this forum or you can learn. Heckling is easier than learning just as tearing up the garden is easier than planting and tending it.

JTF The story of W Reich in the US shows how low they can go.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:01 - ID#275307)

Your 21:01 pretty much sums up the situation in the world. The CB's will have to buy everything to keep this racket moving forward. Between this situation and y2k, it's becoming more difficult to believe the financial world will survive much more than a few months. Hyperinflation seems to be right around the corner. Bank runs in the very near future are becoming a distinct possibility.


(Thu May 07 1998 22:02 - ID#267344)
tolerant - I will be out there too!
But I am planning on sailing into the South Pacific, where it will be summer time. You should join me - we would be a formidable force against any would-be pirates!
- c

(Thu May 07 1998 22:06 - ID#403272)

(Thu May 07 1998 22:09 - ID#426220)
TOO MODEST... may offend

REF: "Date: Thu May 07 1998 21:27
mozel ( @vronsky, earl, SDRer and other kind commentators ) "

You are too modest... it is ignoble not to take deserved bows...
and bask in the public's acclaim when you share your wisdom with them.
Noblesse Oblige...

(Thu May 07 1998 22:11 - ID#335184)
TI's Shaman - Well of course He's just hanging there !
I put it to you that he is only a bit shagged out after a prolonged squawk !
If you didn't have him hanging there, VRRRRRRROOOOOOM, he'd come flying out of his AU trance, dancing around the fire thereby holding the price of GOLD above $298.50 !
If he has indeed shuffled off this mortal coil & gone on to the choir invisible, try a slug !
A slug of Wild Turkey that is !



(Thu May 07 1998 22:11 - ID#410215)
..... Smile, DAMNIT! .....

Am flabbergasted that LGB even needed to put his argument forth regarding superior western medical care.

For every schmoe that has his tale of woe about how the system let him/her down, count in the thousands the lives improved and suffering avoided.

Seems the anarchists hereabouts would gladly do without this tainted technology. Perhaps they should throw their computer out the window also. Their arguments are strait from the Ted Kazinski manifesto.

When we wake up tomorrow - those of us who are basically happy and let not fear be the driving passion - the world will be much the same as today.

So many choose to live their lives in fear filled warrens, scratching the dirt back to cover the opening to keep the world outside.

Some pretty smart folks here seem to ignore that this earth has never seen more prosperous times. The entire world is getting better every day.

Those that want to hide from this think themselves good and right and imagine that only they have eyes so keen as to ferret out the peril that is waiting to pounce.

I say, increase the meds, go to five point restraints if needed, and don't spare the cattle prod when they get out of line; for it is these very same folks who think us all so stupid and blind. They think markets go one direction; they think they are actually saying something wise, and showing us something we can't see.

They show us arrogance with this posture, and grave disrespect. We have eyes too. We have minds of our own to think. We don't need their whimpering. We can take care of ourselves.

Most importantly, they are proven wrong again, and again, and again, and again..

But they will continue.


They will

(Thu May 07 1998 22:14 - ID#341189)
@John B
I don't know the exact date I posted the chart that shows this, but here it is again. Don't be thrown off by the x axis. It is a rank # of all the XAU weekly closes since 1984.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:15 - ID#347457)
@sharefin on Y2K
Nick, I really like the way you put it "You being in the middle of the Y2K war" because it is the war, many battles won, many lost, but soldiers keep fighting despite many bad decisions made by the generals. It sure begins to wear me down. I work 10 - 14 hrs every day, travel a lot, just packing my bags to head back to Albuquerque next week ( one reason for me being mostly lurker on this list ) .

You asked, "has the situation worsened or improved?" With all honesty I believe we are making a progress, however, there is still SO MUCH work ahead! A couple of weeks ago I was in Orlando speaking on Y2K conference. This gave me a chance to talk to many people from different companies dealing with the Y2K problem. Yes, it is positive to see that most of them are moving from analysis to renovation and testing stage. However, you also see that we are coming across new issues and testing is more complex than originally estimated.

Private industry doing much better than government, some sectors doing better than others. Embedded systems still being uncharted territory, however, many of the original scares about embedded chips failing all over place are been slowly sorted out ( some of them put to the rest, some of them identified as problem ) .
BTW, nuclear warheads will be OK ( Just MHO )

Yes, many companies will make it, however, this may not protect them from impact of some links in a food supply chain failing. There will be many companies and organizations, which won't make it. We are finally reaching the point where most companies start developing contingency plans, take triage approach, trying to fix only the "mission critical" systems. However, it's not always a clear cut in deciding what impact may a failure on non-mission critical system have on overall operation. But then, it still happens that we walk into organization that is in a bad shape and only starting to address the Y2K problem.

Scale of 1 to 10 ( 1 being the best and 10 being the worst )

My view: 2 months ago - 7, right now - 6.5

As I said, I am so deeply involved in dealing with the problem in the US ( mostly different levels of government ) that I am loosing a close touch with the progress on solving Y2K outside the US.

Well, there you have it, FWIW, my opinion. No world will not fall apart, but the problem will be worse than many people think, and it WILL impact the markets!!

(Thu May 07 1998 22:16 - ID#410215)
..... Sorry about the SWEARING .....

And if I read CRISIS one more GODDAMN time here, thats it, I'm pulling out the automatic weapons and finding a bell tower somewhere.

Question: How can you shoot inocent women and children?

Answer: Easy, you don't lead 'em off by so much.


(Thu May 07 1998 22:17 - ID#267344)
I'm not sure I understand! If "Paper is man's money, Gold is God's money," then why does paper say "In God WE Trust?" I say "Gold is Man's money, paper is gods' money." As a Man, I put my faith in Gold - do you consider that blasphemy? I shall close by saying that I leave such abstract fantasies such as gods, faeries and ghosts to the masses, those who do not care to think freely. "In Gold we trust." Amen.
- c

(Thu May 07 1998 22:18 - ID#433172)
Wheat Info
Hard red winter wheat can be stored indefinitly in 5 gallon plastic pails, the benefits of having a plentiful supply don't necessarily depend on a catastrophe, but if there is one your stomach won't notice
It's available in the yellow pages under food wholesalers, natural food c0-0pts, sometimes grains. A hand grinder ( Corona, $50.00 ) can usually be purchased from any natural food store. Makes sense to buy the organic, most sold retail is.
The most gennerally good dish is poridge, like oatmeal. Given a reasonably coarse grind and added to boiling water ( with raisons ) and allowed to sit with a cover for 5- 10 minutes. Stir now and then. It takes some practice to get it just right, not too runny, not to stiff, ( Goldilocks right )
Pancakes take a finner grind. Just mix with a little baking powder and milk or water. Should make a thin pancake.
Bread takes as fine a grind as is practical, yeasted and sweetened water, and a lot of working the two together. It's worth it, lots of rich tastes, not gummy ole starch you can buy in the store.
To be well fixed have a portable generator and some kind of grinder powered by electricity ( vita-mix ) , but the hand grinder is a must.
Wheat comes in 50 lb. bags for ??? I've paid $10 to $15 a bag, first class.
We are preparing for finnancial meltdown by buying gold and other PMs thinking paper burns before gold melts. If gold melts it will just another event if you are backed up with wheat. If you do'nt eat it you can plant it, it grows fine after years of storage.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:25 - ID#410215)
..... 40 Days and 40 Nights .....

Clone -

Its easy.

God spoke from the Mount to these fellows

Or perhaps it was the peyote

And God ordained GOLD sacrosanct among all metal thingies.

Forget about the whole render unto Caesar what is Caesar's thing, and that Golden Calf Moses smote after a very prolonged squawk.

Uh Huh

(Thu May 07 1998 22:26 - ID#347457)
@Tolerant1 and Clone
Guys, count me in on sailing through the 2000. Let me see. I'll start from Chesapeake, join Tolerant1 in Florida and keep going to meet Clone somewhere on the West Coast. This may be a start of flotilla Kitco

(Thu May 07 1998 22:26 - ID#335184)
TI's Shaman Pie
Perhaps a little Kidney pie with a fine chianti for my pal Hannible !



(Thu May 07 1998 22:28 - ID#401460)

"In God We Trust" was put on US Currency when US Paper was secured by God's currency, Gold. The irony today is, with today's Paper, we put our trust in God more than ever before.


(Thu May 07 1998 22:29 - ID#153102)
@vronsky @RJ
Vronsky You're the last guy I'd want to offend, because, frankly, if it wasn't for you, I wouldn't have ever been here.

RJ The optimistic side of what you say is a great testimony to the human spirit. I agree with it in the long view. The best supporting evidence is how people today carry on constructing progressively despite the crushing burden of debt and oppressive regulation ( and government protected quacks ) .

(Thu May 07 1998 22:30 - ID#31868)
Newtron - the Shaman was over boiled and his meat fell right off his bones. No
helping him now. clone - Miro - the Kitco flotilla, now this idea has merit to ring in the new year looking forward to the millenium. AragornIII is also planning an ocean going trip at that time.

A gulp to all on the birth of a fine idea. Now where are all those charts?

(Thu May 07 1998 22:32 - ID#341189)
@John B and Richard Burke
To illustrate the way I evaluate where the XAU is relative to the XAU/AU ratio: I didn't do this for the close today, but earlier in the day when the XAU was at 83.8 and the ratio was around .279 ( I believe ) , I looked at all the weeks the XAU has ever closed between 78.8 and 88.8. ( There are 148 of them over the last 14+ years. ) The mean XAU/AU ratio for those weeks is .237 with a SD of .022. Due to the upward trend in the XAU over the last 14years ( another graph i've posted here in the past ) I add .03 to the mean historic ratio. Thus the adjusted mean was .267, a little over .01 below the .279 earlier today. My conclusion is that the XAU is still priced a bit rich, despite the downdraft of the last few days.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:36 - ID#341189)
@home with a book
Will check in tomorrow.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:37 - ID#255190)
kapex and Silverbaron

Good question and IMHO good answer.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:39 - ID#410215)
..... Who's got the gold? .....

Sorry to poke another hole in the logic maestros, but:

Lets see.. The dollar used to be backed by gold, yes?

And who held the gold backing this dollar?

It was the Government?

What makes anyone think that the government, which they so distrust, would cough up that gold for that paper? Fine, let 'em back the bills, but they still got the gold. They also got the guns. Waive your "gold backed" paper all you want, it will not get you any gold, nor will it stop lead.

The inherent flaws and contradictions in the Holly Goldbug mentality seems not to bother them one bit. "Paper is worthless!", they say, and go off to buy puts or calls or pray for a gold backed Euro, which ( get this ) will be the strongest paper of all! God indeedy be praised and pass the Euro.

Gold in the hand is gold.

All else

Is not

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 07 1998 22:40 - ID#287367)
@ Skinny
I thought a Zek was an inhabitant of the Gulag Archipelago, Oris, what say ye?

(Thu May 07 1998 22:40 - ID#275307)

Do you post to csy2k? If you are not aware of this usenet group, it is All issues are debated to death. It is quite interesting. My take on the issue so far is that the world is about to change in a significant way. It appears the frac reserve system is not likely to survive. A de facto gold standard is likely in our future. As awareness of this issue increases, I believe the citizens of the world will attempt to convert intangibles to tangibles. I doubt the banks can survive without massive monetary growth. The CB's last stand?


(Thu May 07 1998 22:42 - ID#410215)
..... Mozel .....

That was the best response you ever gave me.


(Thu May 07 1998 22:43 - ID#257136)
John Disney's @ 14:09! concerninf the lgb....
I concur wholeheartedly!
Would I could say it as well.

I had almost forgotten about the little garrulous boy until he threw his tantrum today.

Leaky Gum Boot is a fine description, but I'll still think of him as a LITTLE GARRULOUS BOY screaming for attention and to have HIS OWN WAY any way he can get it!
I feel for the spouse and kids as well as the dog and cat!

(Thu May 07 1998 22:45 - ID#28994)
I have been keeping a chart on when the best time is to be on Kitco.
Based on content, is it original, is it frivilous, etc.
Tonight looks like the price of gold.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:46 - ID#153102)
Don't let it go to your head. It won't bother me if the cattle prod-meds -paper people don't survive the CRISIS. smiley thing

(Thu May 07 1998 22:46 - ID#347457)
@RJ (..... Smile, DAMNIT! .....)
RJ, I think you missed what the argument was about ( at least with me ) . I agree with you that the modern ( I don't like to use "western" ) medicine is superior, however, you can not close the eyes to some good, non-traditional treatments which are more and more excepted by the modern medicine. That's all.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:47 - ID#348286)
You got that right..... only the shiney untarnishable heavier than lead yellow stuff is Gold, nothing else....

(Thu May 07 1998 22:55 - ID#410215)
..... Is it Safe? .....

Miro -

I agree entirely. The most important thing western medicine seems to leave out, is the psychology of medicine. When people feel better emotionally, people get better physically.

Guess I'm grumpy, had a molar prepped for a crown today and the jaw is griping.

I was however, very pleased with the high speed drills and the excellent local anesthetic, for I did not feel a thing.

Without these advances, dentistry would be more like, "The Marathon Man"

Oil of Cloves


(Thu May 07 1998 22:56 - ID#284255)
RJ - don't shoot me!
GPS System: Repair Will Be 3 Months After Shutdown
The Global Positioning Satellite system was designed to roll back ( start over ) every 1,024 weeks. On August 22, 1999, the GPS will "lose" these weeks and start over. Every piece of GPS-dependent software must be corrected by that time.

One piece of military software will not be fixed until December, 1999 -- three months after the GPS rolls back. This was admitted by Assistant Secretary of Defence Emmett Paige, Jr., in recent testimony.

The GPS is also used by private citizens to locate where they are: mapping programs, trucking, open-sea triangulation. It is used by banks to calculate interest rates. Most significantly, it is used by telecommunications systems to establish precise timing for signal switching and other operations.

What if GPS goes down for three months prior to y2k? That would create major problems right when the finishing touches ( everyone promises ) have to be put on the y2k repair.

Thank you very much.

It's good to hear you speak confidently on the subject.
One reason why the US may fare better than most, is the quantity and quality of the work being done.

What are your thoughts for the rest of the globe where remedial work has been a late starter?

Your comment on nuclear warheads is appreciated.
Any further information as to your confidence on this issue.
Are the boys prioritizing 'Nuclear' ?


(Thu May 07 1998 22:56 - ID#153102)
Much obliged for the wheat information.

(Thu May 07 1998 22:58 - ID#227238)
LGB @19:04: "I'm amazed how many folks here embrace ignorance as if it were a virtue."

What absolute arrogance! An insult of the highest order. All from a man, an unwarranted assumption perhaps, posturing as a paragon of intellectual rectitude and yet, finds himself functionally incapable of carrying on a civilized discourse. Perhaps it's time for another of those weekend retreats where you found some bogus religious principle or other. But try a different source this time. The first did not take...... or more likely you were too busy sermonzing and forgot to listen to the principles.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:01 - ID#426220)
amigo mozel

REF: vronsky ( TOO MODEST... may offend ) : I still would like to email chat with you. You may trust I am the heart & soul of discretion:

I give as references Reify, POLARBEAR and Strad

(Thu May 07 1998 23:01 - ID#301318)
Hey LGB!
Whatever happened to your New Years' resolution?

(Thu May 07 1998 23:02 - ID#57232)
Some tidbits for you! Medical care, Gold trends
RJ: Here's some food for thought. First, medical care. I think you are saying that we have the 'best' medical care in the world. If you are saying this, you are technically correct. But there are several problems with our medical care system. First, there are only a few centers in the US where you can get state-of-the-art chemotherapy, heart transplants, liver transplants, etc., if you can afford it. If you go anywhere else, or get treated locally, your risk of morbidity and mortality go up. Jim Guy Tucker went to Mayo for his liver transplant, not locally. Secondly, alternative medicine - Vit C, E ( natural tocopherols ) , selenium, etc. ( the proven ones ) is not offered by most US physicians because they know little about nutrition. Nutrition is not a topic taught in Medical Schools, until very recently. Amazingly the public knows more than most doctors. Unfortunately, however, their information sources are often faulty, even if they have the basic idea right. Best to use PubMed or similar publication database before using any drugs, prescription or health food type. Thirdly, despite what you are told most physicians know the most just after training, and know less with every year. Fact of life, probably due in part to the burnout phenomenon among other things. Continuing education is now a requirement, which helps. Fourthly, most medical care is focused on the last three years or so of life -- all of those miracle treatments often prolong life only briefly, wheras preventive medicine started at the time of childhood could probably prolong active life another 10-15 years.

However, in defense of our medical system, we are moving into an era of bioengineered medicines that will revolutionize the 'weed killer' approach of chemotherapy, for example. Recently there have been dramatic cancer remissions in terminal patients using immunotherapy. Also, one can taylor drugs with a toxin such as ricin on one end of a molecule, and a homing protein on the other end. If you design wisely, you can kill on only the cancer cells, instead of all the cells ( with a little less killing of the noncancer cells ) . Minimally invasive surgery or 'bloodless' surgery is becoming more popular as well.

Lastly, here is the killer. Just how much of this medical care can you afford? What if I told you that the average Taiwanese has access to better medical care than you do, because they can afford it, and we can't? Of course the very wealthy can always get medical care -- I am talking about our vanishing middle class. The Taiwanese are much more careful not to inflate their currency than we are.

Here is the gold question: Gold and gold stocks are going to bottom in a week or two. Despite the fact that it is a political metal, gold can have excellent rallies, like the one the Oldman benefited from over the last few months until now. What do your floor traders say? Has the selling or potential selling from SEAsia or Europe already been discounted? How much more might we expect if China devalues? Comments?

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 23:02 - ID#77133)
Carl, many thanks for the chart. It'll take a while to figure it out but I will work on it. I understand from a post I read the other evening ( I wish I could remenber his handle? ) that the ratio of the XAU to POG is higher than normal, i.e., about .28 versus a norm of .24. I've wondered how abnormal that is? Thanks again for the response.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:03 - ID#342376)
@ RJ
To bluntly speak of the "superiority" of Modern Medicine shows the problem with it- its arrogance.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:04 - ID#410215)
..... They don't make bell towers anymore .....

Got the ammo loaded in the Hummer and the laser sights zeroed.

Few guns, LOTS of ammo.

Will do word search for "crisis".

Will no one save me?

Then save yourselves



Shwing! ( oops, got that from "Waynes World" )

Better duck and cover


(Thu May 07 1998 23:05 - ID#28994)
I rest my case.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:08 - ID#410215)
..... As evidenced by the hip replacements found on the Pharaohs .....

Crazytimes wrote:

Oh. never mind. His handle speaks first

Uh Huh

(Thu May 07 1998 23:11 - ID#434158)
Clone@inflation and equities crash
Good question. You might want to check out the theories of Richard Maybury, whose explaination was the first that made sense to me. His model portrays "inflation" as selective. Imagine excess money as sand being poured from a funnel onto the ground. Sand scatters everywhere, but more of it piles up right below the funnel. It is that part of the financial system that is overvalued. For the past few years the funnel has been dumping cash into equities. The crash is the cure for the inflation: some of that piled up sand will disappear, some will be brushed over into other assets. Of course, it is possible the funnel will be moved over a different category of assets like, say, metals or natural resources. Maybury also talks about "Chaostan," his term, which is an unstable geopolitical area including central asia, the middle east, and sub-saharan Africa. Don't have a URL for you, but I think a search on Chaostan or on his name will turn him up.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 23:11 - ID#384350)
@Gagnard & Clone, Stagflation
Gagnard, I agree to your inflationary reasoning. A crashing stockmarket curtails demand, but govt spending increases and tax receipts decrease which results in stagflation.

However, currently I see no productivity miracles in the US, just lots of cheap goods from Asia against which the US cons them into accepting IOU's.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:12 - ID#410215)
..... Earl .....

Don't lay into me now.....

I just got my tooth drilled to a nub

Is that not worth mercy


(Thu May 07 1998 23:14 - ID#57232)
Logging off! G Nite all!
RJ: Question for you: If you have a Hum Vee and you pickup incoming nuclear missles on your mini-radar, what part of the vehicle do you use for 'duck and cover'? Just curious.

I must admit I always chuckle at the sheer ludicrousness ( apologies aurator ) of that old song, 'Duck and Cover' -- just in case of nuclear attack during the cold war.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:15 - ID#252127)
"superiority" of Modern Medicine,

at the **kin price they charge, they better be.

John B__A
(Thu May 07 1998 23:16 - ID#77133)
Please disregard my previous note. I had not seen your post answering the very question I had. Many thanks again - I think now you were the poster I was trying to think of. By these statistics the XAU is on the rich side and would better fit a 315 POG.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:18 - ID#227238)
RJ @22:11: "Am flabbergasted that LGB even needed to put his argument forth regarding superior western medical care."

Your sense of flabbergastration is totally unwarranted. In short: He didn't need to put forth his "argument", so called.

1. It was a news report for goodness sake. Not an invitation for subjection.

2. So far as I could tell, the work good or bad, was not done in Beijing. It was done in France. I think that qualifies as a development in "western medicine". But as a member of the ingnorant and unwashed hereabouts, I stand open to correction.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:18 - ID#431263)
When's that seasonality/cyclicality gold surge supposed to start kickin' in this year? Or was $315 all there is in this latest cycle? : ) Just kiddin', mein Herr, on a slow night in Asia! How HK and Japan can both be UP after a week like this is either a testament to shareholder's optimism ( folly ) and/or the central bank's ability ( folly ) to print ever more paper! What a pitiful rally, eh?

(Thu May 07 1998 23:18 - ID#401460)
El Nino & The CRB

MidWestern USA
7-10 days behind schedule on planting with 7-10 more days of rain in the forcast.

At the current rate of negative crop/weather reports from around the world we should see significant inflation in the CRB.


(Thu May 07 1998 23:19 - ID#78136)
George - grinder
Thanks for your post on the Corona grinder. I have tried 3
grinders and none grind wheat, hand grinders. I will look for
the Corona and give it a try.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:20 - ID#410215)
..... JTF .....

The rich always get more

That is the definition of being rich

I am trying to stay away from tactical market opinions posted here; causes too much bleating.

I will say I am planning to cover all my shorts soon


(Thu May 07 1998 23:23 - ID#31868)
CHAOSTAN LINK for Richard Maybury

(Thu May 07 1998 23:23 - ID#410215)
..... Hey!!!! .....

Earl -


It was the tooth talking


(Thu May 07 1998 23:26 - ID#342376)
@ RJ
I am a small investor in Gold with no where near any of the expertise of most people that post on this site. I do enjoy reading the posts from this site tremendously. I post once in a while but try not to waste bandwidth. RJ- I find your posts to be highly articulate, funny and brilliant and I thank you for them. I only wish your brilliance was matched by your decency as a person. That is of course, only my opinion, of which I'm sure you care little. There are much more important things to discuss such as what temperature to drink your vodka.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:30 - ID#410215)
..... & .....

Crazytimes -

I am sorry if I offended.

It is the TOOTH!!!!

It is

(Thu May 07 1998 23:30 - ID#227238)
RJ ( ..... Who's got the gold? ..... ) : I fear you're ignoring the many who, have in the past, pointed that out. If a currency is not freely convertible on demand, it might just as well be plain paper. If it is only convertible in settlement of international trade; the same holds. If convertibility is unavailable to the citizen, the currency remains a fiction. There is no confusion in the matter.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:32 - ID#227238)
The tooth????
RJ: What the hell's that mean?

(Thu May 07 1998 23:33 - ID#347457)
@Sharefin and my confidence
Nick, you say "It's good to hear you speak confidently on the subject." I would not go that far ;- ( There are many things that worry me. The most of it is the fact that due to the late start there will be a significant stress in the final stages ( pre and post year 2000 ) . Something gives, like a quality, use of temporary fixes with limited testing, the trend is already here. In addition, a stressful environment leads to mistakes, things break even if you did your best, and when things break in highly interdependent systems that starts a chain reaction. That is also my view how things will go in other countries with late start on Y2K projects.

As far as your comment on "Are the boys prioritizing 'Nuclear' ?"

Yes, at least that was the case the last time I talked to people in the biggest office building in the Washington. Again, I am not so sure what the rest of nuclear powers do about this issue.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:34 - ID#57232)
RJ just had a tooth capped!
Earl: See above. G' Nite all!

(Thu May 07 1998 23:35 - ID#434158)
Tolerant1 re Chaostan url
Thanks for the assist! I find Maybury fascinating reading. I was introduced to his ideas recently by a coin dealer in Arizona. What do you think of his stuff?

(Thu May 07 1998 23:35 - ID#410215)
..... Is it Safe? .....

If we are agreed on that basis, then we agree.

But many hereabouts speak of the unholy paper

And then rush out to get more

Is a spade still a spade?

And what is that Pope doing in the woods?

Shouldn't the Pope just take the damn spade out to the woods with him and bury it? ( Not the spade )

These are important questions

They are

(Thu May 07 1998 23:35 - ID#347235)
All, RJ
All, Only thing that worries me about Chrysler/Daimler will be if Daimler starts making K Cars REMEMBER THEM? Yecch!

RJ Your reference to not leading women and children so much is not original, it was in a disgustingly error ridden movie about my first war.
Appocolyse Now.... Also I saw this done in almost every combat landing I made in Viet Nam and Once in Dominican Republic and it is not amusing.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 07 1998 23:36 - ID#384350)
Mozel, Crazy Times et al, Essiac
Dr Gary Glum: Essiac is a non-toxic herbal cure for cancer that's been with us since 1922. It's a formula made from four very common herbs.

Elisabeth Robinson: I would guess that virtually every person in the US today has been touched by cancer, either personally or through a loved one. If this information is true, and the effectiveness of this remedy is actually medically documented, many lives could be saved. Why do you think the information on Essiac is not more widely known?

Dr Gary Glum: The information is withheld because cancer is the second largest revenue-producing business in the world, next to the petrochemical business. Money and power suppress this truth.

No one has ever sought to Cure cancer, only Control it. I mean, the body that has a vested interest in the health care of cancer, including the American Cancer Society, the Canadian Cancer Society, any of these so-called benefactors to those who have contracted this disease--all of these institutions are involved in the money and power around cancer.

These institutions have influence over govt and regulatory agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration. The FDA recommends only allopathic treatments for cancer and other life-threatening diseases. It does not approve, nor make legal, alternative treatments of any kind.

ER: You're saying that Essiac is in a position similar to, for example, laetrile.

GG: Yes, the only reason laetrile was stopped--and it couldn't be stopped any other way--was through the insurance companies. The insurance companies sent down a directive to all allopathic physicians stating that they could not cover them in any malpractice suit in the event they were treating people with any substance not approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

-From Nexus Magazine "Special Supplement #2", Dec 97-Jan 98

Nexus Magazine:

(Thu May 07 1998 23:36 - ID#227238)
Scrolling back and forth in ignorant and illogical order.
RJ: Oh! That tooth. ..... Scrolling about, I find some references to a Shaman. Perhaps .......... nah!

(Thu May 07 1998 23:41 - ID#410215)
..... Incoming .....


Actually I stole that from a helicopter scene in, "Platoon".

I made no claim to this

Nor do I tell jokes

I prefer humor to be spontaneous

And my soldiers to not be humorless

Get of your high horse

You are not the only one who has served

There are others

(Thu May 07 1998 23:45 - ID#410215)
..... Shamanology .....

Earl -

The shaman has left

A large smear of green paste on my forehead

I must go out in the moonlight

And stub my toe

On a dead chicken

This the shaman said

To hell with the shaman


(Thu May 07 1998 23:50 - ID#347235)
Probably the only experience you have with war is the movies,or you wouldint try to justify your remark

(Thu May 07 1998 23:50 - ID#341312)
Chrysler/Benz, Ulrich and Y2K
I'm not sure what the impact of the merger of these two companies will be but one thing is certain. Chrysler won't be some disreputable partner tarnishing the Mercedes name. They are by far the most innovative and exciting car company today. A lot of corporations give lip service to reinventing themselves but these guys actually did. Why? The company is run by car guys, not bean counters. They took a stodgy old last place company and began building Vipers and Prowlers. The entry level Neon ( with the good suspension ) literally runs rings around all others in its class and quite a few more expensive cars. Their concept cars are so far above what any other company produces it's almost embarrasing. At the last auto show, they had a concept car on display that just might have been the finest example of automotive art I've ever seen. Last year's Atlantic was no slouch, either. Nor was the Copperhead, kind of a Viper Jr. By contrast, one of the Japanese companies was hawking their latest copycat SUV by acting out live theatre with people dressed in animal costumes! So much for Japan.
Re Y2k, some of the people actually trying to fix the problem are scared enough to buy AR-15s and Mr. Ulrich thinks the problem can be solved by holding workshops and getting Rotary Clubs involved? No further comment is needed.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:53 - ID#347457)
RJ, you see what that modern medicine did to you?! In the old days they drilled your tooth without any shots. You were able to have a drink after the procedure. These days, you can't eat or drink for at least 5 hours ( your mouth is numb everything just falls right out of it. Than you have to go and appologize over and over IT WAS MY TOOTH!! ;- )

Good night you all - need to get some sleep.

(Thu May 07 1998 23:58 - ID#288369)
@Blues boyz...........
BUDDY GUY and young Johnny Lang on Tonight show tonight.........g'nite all. GO GOLDBUGS!!!