Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:00 - ID#410215)
..... About face .....

RS -

Yours was called Vietnam

Mine was called Beirut

Both were noisy, yes?

Blood was the same color, yes?

Good men died, yes?

Yet we came back

Are we the heroes?

Take your sanctimonious crap elsewhere


(Fri May 08 1998 00:02 - ID#284255)
Y2K and power - electricity
Tomorrow I am going to a Y2K talk;

" How much is media hype?" - is the subject.

It will be chaired by the Y2K project manager for the state power provider.

I wish to go fore-armed with plenty of pertinent questions.

I already have about 8 different areas under question.

What I wish for, is, do any of you have any thoughtfull questions that I could put to this discussion?

Thanks in advance.

Thank you - appreciated words.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:03 - ID#290118)
Wheat Grinders
Check out for grinders and nitrogen packed dry foods.
They are in to food storage - serious like.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:04 - ID#206358)

After few days of riots,fighting and protest in MEDAN,SUMATERA,thousands of INDONESIA CHINESE fleed to neighbourhood contries.Whole planes fill with the scaring citizens.Some through waterfront..speed boats/fishing boats ect!6 died,many hurts!Hundred been arrested...!Today,both SHUHARTO,DR MAHATHIR fly to cairo for G 15 MEETING!think that there shoulh be further big stuffs come up!

There was a sad story years back from VIETNAM AND CAMBODIA too!The chances of the recall of the history is high...what a endless,..struggle story!From the ECONOMY CRISIS turn into civil war and spread liked diceases..!


(Fri May 08 1998 00:11 - ID#256250)
Date: Thu May 07 1998 19:19
SDRer__A ( What Bill, Al & Bob really talked about..."It's the dollar, stupid!" {:- ) ) ) ID#288155:

It does seem that we have finally reached that stage that you described so well. The White house meeting combined with, the UNHEARD OF 5 ( READ THAT FIVE ) days of the FED draining reserves, with the impressive NEW found money that they are paying debt, off with, the Euro actually making it through the starting gate, with the very strong anti USG rethoric from Japn and Asia and I say something BIG is happening. The USdollar is under major pressure and they is no where to turn. All the tricks have been played, all the lie have been told ( most several times ) , all the fools have been fooled, ...

So I think you description is well placed in this time frame. The USdollar is the both the alpha and the omega in the world's biggest and possibly longest game of deceit and deception. The USG has used everyone and everything and the USdollar is starting its final decent.

"We [Europe] will NOT neglect our currency"

MR JEAN-LUC DEHAENE, Prime Minister of Belgium, is voicing the message of the world ... We won't put up with this anymore! The USdollar is under attack. Indeed the walls are being breached and the hordes are endless. It will not be pretty and I see no place for the USG to hide and no friends for them to turn to.

SDRer thanks for the post. It is a major warning to us all.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:11 - ID#410215)
..... Now THAT is REAL .....


Thank you for adding perspective

Good luck


(Fri May 08 1998 00:12 - ID#341214)
sharefin: Please excuse my ignorance. I have not been around much. Do you hail from NZ or OZ? I might have an item or two for you.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:14 - ID#290118)
Most of us, if not all, do not find the prospect of war amusing.
We joke because some of us are scared!
I and others hope we can head this off before it comes to that.
That applies to Y2K panic and to trying to hold this nation together with democracy and getting involved - if we can.
But if it threatens to get ugly - do lend your advice to help us get prepared to get through it. ( mentally and otherwise )

(Fri May 08 1998 00:25 - ID#431263)
The fundamental principle of fascism is that right and wrong are only matters of opinion. In a fascist society there are no moral absolutes, no right or wrong, no yes or no, no black or white--only the existential imperative to wield power and influence public opinion to accept and support it's use, irrespective of the consequences or the ends!

Is this why BC governs by public opinion polls?

(Fri May 08 1998 00:25 - ID#284255)

Thanks I would be interested.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:26 - ID#227238)
A Goose: Thanks for reposting that from SDRer. I generally don't miss anything from him. But I did miss that one.

If his impressions are correct we may soon see if BS has a tangible limit. ....... Perhaps we will find ourselves sending dispatches to Jin about worsening conditions in the US.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:28 - ID#227305)
Many who post here rail against the government,fiat paper, conspiricies hatched by governments to devalue gold.Your point that a gold backed currency is just as worthless as one that is not-- if one outright distrusts the orgin of issue.I don't believe you view gold as an absolute store of value any more than you view any other commodity.You do traffic in it's perception as a store of value.If gold is truly perceived as of limited value by the world and it's markets, why would the euro want to be backed by it.Why not something else perceived as more valuable?

(Fri May 08 1998 00:30 - ID#256250)
Well silver and copper eligible stocks drop and gold eligible DON'T change...
one single ounce. 6.5 million paper gold ounces traded today the price of paper gold dropped and NOT one single ounce of actual gold bullion change at comex, BUT hey we all know this by now.


Gold 65,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 15,000

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 103,870 0 802 -802 103,068

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

-174,599 15,869 37,604,933
0 -15,869 51,490,839
-174,599 0 89,095,772

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

496,181 31,978 0 31,978 0 528,159
178,524 0 0 0 0 178,524
674,705 31,978 0 31,978 0 706,683

PH in LA
(Fri May 08 1998 00:30 - ID#225408)
Sailing off into the sunset for Y2K?
Sailors Miro, Tolerant, Clone:

I, too, have wondered if Y2K would be a good excuse to sail away from it all until things normalize. But the problem I see ( based in part on Allen ( USA ) 's dire scenarios ) is that normalization might well take several years to come. If this is at all correct, civilization will be heavily compromised for some time to come. While this might not present much of a problem while at sea, at some point we would have to seek landfall. From LA this would likely mean Mexico. ( At least at first ) According to the latest reports, crime and lawlessness is already on the upswing there. Granted thatMexico has never offered the kind of stability we take for granted in the US ( or the Keys ) but can you imagine the reaction of the locals to see another cruising boat heading in during times of famine? "Happy days are here again!" OR "Lets go out and see what these guys have for us!" etc. Not the kind of welcome we would be looking forward to. Places like the South Pacific may not be muchbetter. Tahiti, for example, is very highly dependent on France for almost everything, including food. Roving cruisers might be viewed as potential assets, if you take my meaning.

At the same time, a well-set-up cruising boat can be virtually self-sufficient. Solar panels and wind generators for power, watermakers, inverters for the microwave, etc. food stores easily sufficient when supplemented with bounty from the sea...etc. It has occurred to me thatsmall communities of like-minded well-prepared people could easily gravitate to places like Catalina Island where cooperation could make survival more likely. At least a real defense could be organized and the humger-crazed masses held off. Food could even be cultivated and wild buffalo actually exist there.

At the same time, I am buoyed by RJ and Miro and hope thoughts like the above will only be remembered later like expectations of the second coming at the time of the last millinium. Seems like I have read that many perished at that time when they left the relative safety of the cities and flocked to the countryside to await the communion of saints. Are the Y2K dire warnings and predictions of the collapse of civilization more of the same? As the more things change, do they really stay the same?

I guess we'll all know soon enough.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:35 - ID#227238)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Your thought for the day would seem to indicate that totalitarian regimes are lacking goals and ultimate intent. I'm sure you did not intend that. ....... Then again, the lust for and exercise of raw power over the affairs of others is the goal and intent of all governments at all times and all places. Perhaps we are on the cusp of radical change in the way men order their governmental affairs. We can only hope.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:41 - ID#410215)
..... ptwoskool .....

I don't know the answer to your question. Perhaps gold, as before, will prove to be viewed as valuable. Perhaps we are entering into a new world where abstract symbols in cyberspace represent all wealth ( See my posts of last Saturday ) .

I don't know which way it will fall. I'm just a lowly gold peddler looking our troubled sister squarely in the eye.

I believe that most here are buying gold for the right reasons.

Some, however, may be buying too much, too soon.

Yours is a new name, or one I don't recognize.

You are now of Kitco blood


(Fri May 08 1998 00:44 - ID#153102)
@PH in LA
I hope in three years I am the object of ridicule for being a Nervous Nellie Chicken Little in advance of Y2K.
But, given the known propensity for deceit and disinformation in the governing circles, prudence instructs me to prepare.
My counsel is that no man is an island; that the company of the seriously God fearing is more reliable and more enduring in bad circumstances.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:46 - ID#410215)
..... Mozel .....

Nay NNCL......

Keens eyes

Looking forward


(Fri May 08 1998 00:46 - ID#227238)
PH in LA: Your post reminded me of an article in this morning's Oregonian regarding the training of Mexican police. By means of an undercover investigation, it was found that the police academies actually teach recruits the fine art of bribery and other means of sub rosa money gathering. ........ Don't know that we are much better. Under the drug laws of the US, police can confiscate personal property without due cause. And routinely do. The means may be different but the result remains the same.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:46 - ID#256250)
Date: Fri May 08 1998 00:26
Earl ( ) ID#227238:

Sorry Earl, this is SDRer's 19:19 post. What I posted was my response to SDRer's 19:19 using SDRer's header, sorry for the confusion. I try to be clearer next time.


Date: Thu May 07 1998 19:19
SDRer__A ( What Bill, Al & Bob really talked about..."It's the dollar, stupid!" {:- ) ) ) ID#288155:
Copyright  1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"And then the phone rings at your bedside at three oclock in the morning. The markets in Tokyo and Singapore are
open and there is a run on your currency--all sellers, no buyers. And then the London market is open, and your
currency doesnt have a friend left. The sellers go right through the perimeter defenses without a swig from their
canteens; you throw your swaps and your lines and they eat them all up and keep right on coming, the swaps only
slow down a platoon here and a platoon there, the rest of the sellers look like the Chinese army, they just keep
coming, no respect for human life.

You call up the Bundesbank and the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan and you say, Mayday! You guys
could at least make a little clatter in the background, some smoke, some action, divert them, somebody just ran by
my bedroom. You call up your board and tell them to get their shoes and socks on and meet you at the office.

Then you call the President and tell him you have just seen fingers come over the windowsill, this is it, ;you are about
to put the interest rates up to 20% and drain all the money out of the banks.

The President is no economist, but he can understand what an interest rate at 20% means, Are you crazy? he s
reams. Youll throw the country into a depression Car dealers cant pay twenty percent on their showroom cars!
and the tires--the glass--Michigan! There goes Michigan! Steel! Pennsylvania! There goes Pennsylvania! Home

You say, Then youd better be prepared to close the exchanges, maybe the banks; this bunch went right through the
perimeter defenses; and otherwise I dont want to be responsible and I resign.

(Fri May 08 1998 00:51 - ID#227238)
A. Goose: A change of attribution has no effect on content. It's still good. Thanks.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:00 - ID#341214)
sharefin: Y2K
sharefin: Did you catch the following item at Gary North's site? It was written by someone that appears to have impeccable credentials on the subject of software used within the Australian power industry. Maybe you will pick up an interesting item or two from there.

Here in the US we a lot of coal fired plants. The coal is delivered by train using Just In Time inventory methods. Even if every coal fired utility in the US guaranteed that they will be Y2K compliant by late 1999 ( Real Soon Now as Gary North likes to say ) how can they guarantee that the trains will run ok. If you have a similiar situation in Australia you might put that question to the chairman.

You might also ask what experience, if any, does the power industry have with roll over tests. Can he name power companies that have done such tests? Can he share the good, the bad and the ugly results of those tests? Are they posted at any web site?

I'm not around Kitco much these days ( working 2 jobs so I can do all I need to in the way of Y2K prep ) but I'd love to hear how the meeting went and especially anything that was mentioned about roll over tests. You can reach me at

Good Luck!

(Fri May 08 1998 01:07 - ID#22956)
is it?? that my precious Plat takin a crap 2-nite?? Tell me Beirut-Bomber-Boy? What gives.....or am I just readin the wrong screens........... ( burp ) .......s'kuuuze me........ enjoy this.....this kitco


oh Ted......could you, would you witness the Sonic thrashing last night........ohmy.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
PH in LA - Northoholics Anonymous - you too can become one.

In a dingy room in the back of a Coral Gables pool hall, a furtive group of type-A behavior victims sit, fidgeting, in their chairs. The first speaker of the evening is about to begin.

Some of them are smoking. Others are drinking coffee. Some carry hip flasks full of Jack Daniels or other calming liquids. They try to make small talk, but the topic of discussion keeps coming back to the same theme: Why the millennium bug is "a problem," but not that big a problem. Surely not a huge problem. Not the kind of problem that Gary North says it will be.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:17 - ID#253228)
Updated S&P500 projection

The above chart is the same projection I posted yesterday, but with one more data point added. I'll probably update it every few days as long as the projection works since it feels good to show off. I'll probalby disappear for a while if the actual path of the S&P500 diverges too greatly from my little mysterious calculations.

Still project Homestake dropping seriously. Actually I am surprised at how well it has held up, but then often a trading vehicle stalls for a short time and then accelerates to get where it is going in the appropriate time frame.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:17 - ID#284255)
Yes I did read that one.
Also have info on Ontario Hydro and Hawaii Y2K conversions.
Yardini also talks about them a bit and Rick Cowles has plenty of info.

Alan has also been informative on the subject.

Will keep you informed.

PH in LA
(Fri May 08 1998 01:20 - ID#225408)
Mordidas, Miranda, metceteras, etc.

It doesn't surprise me that the federales get special training in the fine art of the "mordida" or "bribe". After all, bribery really is part of the system there. What you hand over to the policeman does not all go into his pocket. Certain defined percentages are passed up the line to supervisors etc and eventually reach the politicians themselves. I remember that I was advised by my employer in Venezuela to fold a ( US ) $100-bill into my passport in case it was ever requested by a policeman. I was told that the $s would be accepted without comment and no other action would be inniciated against me. ( In that country, a male without proper papers apprehended on a public street could be inducted straight into the armed services without even the right to a single phone call. )

But let's not confuse this with the situation in this country. Granted, the war on drugs does put a strain on the legal system and our individual rights but the reality is very far from that which exists in latin countries. When was the last time you were "allowed" ( read encouraged ) to pay your fine on a traffic violation in cash to avoid an immediate trip to "la carcel" ( jail ) ?

Gosh, do I sound like LGB? or what? Any resemblance is strictly co-incidental. All names and places have been changed to protect the innocent...etc. I have the rightto remain silent...All that I say can and will be used against me...

(Fri May 08 1998 01:21 - ID#75206)
Sharefin - Y2K meeting with power provider
After you have found out whether your power provider will be Y2K compliant by at least 7/1/99 ask him what he thinks will happen if he has to buy power transported via the national power grid that all utilities are linked to and there are providers linked to that grid that are not Y2K compliant. Will that short circuit the national power grid? Will those non-compliant utilities be able to contribute power to the national power grid? Will non-compliant Y2K providers have to be de-linked from the grid? When will your provider start to test whether it is Y2K compliant? December, 1999 is too late. They had better start late this year or early next year.

If you live in a northern climate, remind him that on 1/1/2000 it will be da** cold and if his company goes down after midnight on 12/31/99 because they are not Y2K compliant, its not going go be for a few hours; it will probably be for weeks and people will die.

For people in Canada and the northern US, Y2K compliance by power providers is a matter of life and death and, in my opinion, nobody is treating it with the urgency that should entail.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:34 - ID#153102)
@vronsky Will e-mail to you when I can; going offline for a while soon.

(Fri May 08 1998 01:34 - ID#255151)

Might be useful to ask him how aware and commited his bosses are concerning the Y2K problem. Are they taking it seriously? Is he being given adequate resources?

(Fri May 08 1998 01:49 - ID#220325)
Free Martin Armstrong Transcripts
Site click on Main. Then scroll down to research, select investment then seminar transcripts FREE. The latest is Nov. 97

(Fri May 08 1998 01:51 - ID#224149)
As the World Turns sideways --It sure feels down .No I mean uuuuup.
Is there a doctor in the house? The Kitco site was busy as a bumblebee yesterday  Sting here ---A sting there Did anybody look out the window? The best cure for cancer is a few garlic cloves each day and make sure you breathe on all your enemies and friends Good Vibrations Away until ( Maybe ) the full moon ---Then let the battle begin --- ( Kids playing with plastic verbs ) ---Anybody remember who posted this? -------- ( Gentlemen, needless to mention we are at the end of the gold's weakest price month ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially. ) ------- Goodnight sweet America

(Fri May 08 1998 01:51 - ID#210114)
Another Central Bank Sale!!
May 8 1998, STAR FLEET HEADQUARTERS. - ( Reuters )

The Central Bank of Vulcan has announced that it has sold one third of its gold reserves. Central Bank Governor Uhura stated that continued uncertainty in the gold markets and recent falls in the price of gold led to the banks decision.

We were extremely exposed and felt that it was prudent to reduce this exposure with this relatively small sale. We are concerned at the continuing uncertainty as to the value of gold in the modern financial system Governor Uhura was quoted as saying.

This was not however a general rejection of the Vulcans previous pro-gold position. The Central Bank will continue to hold some 25% of our total assets in gold said another spokesman. However with the continued uncertainty over the European Central Banks gold holding, we felt that we would reduce our exposure, thus effectively hedging our position. We still have two thirds of our original holdings.

When asked if a continued fall in price would produce further purchases Governor Uhura was positive saying Yes we shall buy on the lows and sell on the highs. When asked whether further sales would be forth coming, Governor Uhura said Almost certainly not. Our original purchase price was very near the low so we are not expecting to make a loss on our current position. Furthermore, the Asian crisis and the coming millenuim bug provide a strong incentive to hold assets in a tangible form.

The world awaits the announcement of the ECBs gold reserves in early June.

(Fri May 08 1998 02:19 - ID#255284)
JTF, Willhem Reich, Orgone, Stuff like that
Not only do you light the flame of an interstellar hope for humanity, but today I see a reference to Wilhelm Reich, Orgone, Aether and Reich's persecution by the US Army and FDA. His son's autobiography, the title eludes me, shone a light of truth on the extent of the persecution by the FDA. Now weren't they the folk who took exception at Waco?

When I heard and saw of the events and Waco ( pronounced Wacko downunder, to rhyme with Jacko ) I recalled Western tales read in childhood of Louis Lamour and Zane Grey. Ummm Orgone energy as a cure for cancer.

(Fri May 08 1998 02:36 - ID#255284)
Recommended Books by Wilhelm Reich
The Cancer Biopathy
The invasion of Compulsory sex- morality
The Mass psychology of Fascism
Listen Little Man

This fella is not an easy read, but then, the rewards are great, umm, golden...

(Fri May 08 1998 02:39 - ID#22956)
gold reversal
YES. Today gold made it's final 'correction'. It may have ANOTHER day to go but it will resume it's northern path. It's ALL in the charts........ YES.




salty/jman.......we bottled last week and will taste some on Saturday. yum-yum. I will mail ya soon regarding.....this&that.

(Fri May 08 1998 02:44 - ID#210114)
Up or Down; I don't care anymore.
I'm hedging. If it goes up; I'm makin' money. If it goes down; I'LL BUY MORE in a very farelesque manner.

Go Gold!..... up or down.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 02:45 - ID#24135)
Geronimo speaks...
For Leaky Gum Boots...

How ...
I notice you refer recently to Native American
saying about "advisary" .. I never hear that saying
but I tell you your name translate to Apache ...

"Hole - In - Rubber"

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 02:50 - ID#384350)
Daimler-Mercedes-Benz-AMC-Chrysler Aktien Gesellschaft
This is great for "diversity". Now, once German-made Mercedes cars will be built with Chinese parts in American factories by Mexican labour.

I think I'll move to Patagonia.

(Fri May 08 1998 02:51 - ID#210114)
Insomniac Americans??
Who's on the line at this time; insomniac americans or afternoon Australian surfers like me??

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 02:56 - ID#24135)
Lets Get Ready to Rumble
for sportsfans -
Okay folks halfway through the fight .. Tony
"technical" Analysis has taken the first five rounds
from Eliot "real wave" Fibonacci.
Tony used the "rope a dope" by laying on the support
lines and the Moving Averages. But Fibonacci has been
landing BODY SHOTS and the fight's not over yet.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 02:59 - ID#24135)
You Earth Person ??? Android ??
for Spock
How about rainy morning american born
australians in south africa ??

(Fri May 08 1998 03:03 - ID#255284)
RVs-R-US, not
and salty kiwis wondering what it's like to have a life style.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:16 - ID#153102)
"I would enjoy very much to continue our philosophical discussion, but
I'm afraid it would exceed the limits of what this site is meant to be."
***Nothing is happening at the moment here, so ...
"- You seem to be precisely clear and radically critical of the legal
situation in America, where it has been drifted, and from where it came
from. The loss of "true" legality.
- At the same time, you have the greatest believe in the "true" law, of
all persons whom I have ever met.
I have read about the "Freemen" and thought: "What a tragedy!". Why did
they expose themselves to a system which was obviously already rotten?
By the way: I never really was sure if Socrates did the right thing when
he emptied the cup of poison.
But my own mistrust of the present legal situation in America is so
profoundly that I wouldn't even expose myself. And I deeply regret that
these wonderful people became victims of p**gs.
But my major concern is this: Americans with your believe might spread
affirmative propaganda about an "idea of America" which in reality has
ceased to exist long agon: and you told me exactly when and why.
I think, in the long run, I will tend to trust the effective positive
political situation more than the idea of a law ( i.e., common law or a
law, which is theoretically based on the "judaeo-christian believe" that
all men are equally born in the image of god ) . These ideas are at the
end irrelevant. What really counts are the people and their will to
defend their rights or to fight for their rights. But as things are,
people havn't even understood that their "republic" and their
"democracy" is history since quite a while. And what also counts are the
intentions and the strategies of those who form the "oligarchy"."

Alberich, you have misunderstood me and America, I think. I gave you the highlights of the events that have occurred that have led to today's legal environment in America. I don't know about this belief in the "true" law statement. All the unrepealed law that was on this continent from Independence, still is. The decision in Clinton v Jones turned in large part on the Petition of Right of 1681 and other guarantees from the English Constitution.

The idea of America is in the Declaration of Independence. That idea has not ceased to exist by a long shot. I don't understand this affirmative propaganda statement of yours either. The English Constitution at the time of separation from England, the common-law, the Constitutions and other founding documents and principles of this country are not propaganda. They are our birthright. Trust me on this: they may not be part of political campaigns, but for hire lawyers know and judges know and when they know you know and you get past the procedural mysteries, they know and apply the law. Not that they are giving anything; they aren't. And, if they think you will give up or can't or won't appeal, they will give even less. Ignorance just gets no respect at all in a courtroom in America.

The Freeman were sticking a sharp stick in the belly of this government. They accomplished a very great deal with no resources except hard work. The administration of the law is not perfect anywhere. American courts are not corrupt generally in any venal sense of the word. But, if you wager at law with powerful financial or government interests, do not be naive. The courts are not an alternative for the political process, but a few determined people with some knowledge of law have an unequalled resource to result ratio. Besides, we are at a stage in this country where political action without legal knowledge is pretty much a waste of time.

At the moment I have the impression you are on some kind of an intellectual Michelin tour of these matters. I hope you will study the references you asked for. Until you do, you should be wary of your own judgement on these topics.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:21 - ID#256250)
@J Disney
That actully translates to Little Chief Running Felon. According to the posts he's even more timely than Hillary. 100,000 %, please.
I just dont get his angle. All that negative energy, for what?
Go Gold, Go Silver, Go Away nasty one.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:32 - ID#256250)
@ RANGY Fan Club
The club will be holding a fund raiser at 0930 hrs EST. All members are asked to notify their friends and families. Admission is only $1.12.
You can also pencil in a joint fund raiser in May with the DROOY Fan Club. Advance tickets are on sale now for $3.06.
And Lastly, next week we will be having a guest speaker from the CAU Debt Reduction Department. If you want a sneak preview you can see the department in action on Friday for only $ .94.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:38 - ID#153102)
I found Reich's lab notes somewhere on this web. Fascinating.

If you ever want an immigration sponsor, let me know. There's room for you in Texas, I daresay.

Cage Rattler
(Fri May 08 1998 03:45 - ID#33184)
Avid Trading - Friday predictions
Last gasps.

June gold broke to new relative lows on Wednesday, gapping lower on Thursday to test our pivotal support in the 297 - 298 area. With prices testing Bollinger Band support at the same time, the close just shy of 300 needs to be left in the dust, preferably with a gap open higher by Tuesday morning, to keep the last of the bullish hopes alive. Otherwise, the last evidence of a bull market for gold will have been invalidated.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:47 - ID#153102)
Glad you enjoyed the piece on Naeesons.
I think it was DA that posted about options expiration and movement of POG. But, it's hard to hold facts and TA and waves in the head all at the same time. For me, anyway.
I wonder if Central African Mines divulged their NAV ?

(Fri May 08 1998 03:47 - ID#255284)
All my sexes live in Texas
most kind. Yes, I have long wanted to visit Texas. My spiritual home, pr my totem home, perhaps..I never thought I might be allowed to live in Texas? What use has Texas for another big talker, bragger and bullsh!ter like I?

(Fri May 08 1998 03:52 - ID#390415)
Ah! Principled and practical, and adding something interesting on the Kitco board after a week or so of fairly sterile gold talk. Now I enjoy gold talk as much as meat and potatoes, I just also like sour cream and A-1 sauce. And your post, containing as it does some serious insight on serious matters, without the irrationality of paranoia or the moral indifference of absolute relativism, I like.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:54 - ID#153102)
Texas has got uses I couldn't ever imagine. And thinking up new ones every day.
Horses and angels on horseback are very welcome there in all seasons.

(Fri May 08 1998 03:56 - ID#256250)
You forgot to add:
" bought by IMF funds "
" then shipped to Suharto's family "

(Fri May 08 1998 03:57 - ID#393224)
Will it hold??
On May 6th I posted:

Now look at the fin-chart:

Let's see if we can stay above that 297-298 area. A break below that line and we may test the lows. I will be
adding to my long positions on this correction. If 280 does not hold I will sell the lot and go live under a palm tree
on a secluded beach in Queensland{[:- ) ) . Cheers, N.

Well the POG got down to the correction area on the chart--could have even gone a dollar lower and still been in uptrend. It may yet hang around this area. Some of our stellar posters are saying that the POG can go to the mid to low 290's and still be correcting. Depends which chart you look at. I added to positions today with tight stops. Big gold shares very weak. I bought wannabees. The next few days will tell. N.


June gold 300
July silver 5.97

(Fri May 08 1998 04:02 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the warm feedback.
Without it, one never knows for sure.
Electrical storm brewing here. So, hate to leave so sonn, but I think I must. G'night.

(Fri May 08 1998 04:15 - ID#257148)
East Texas Waltzzzzzz

look after precious, mon. We'll have to get an IRC going, yes?

angels on horseback yumm....


riding off into a chiaroscuro saguaro sunset


(Fri May 08 1998 04:26 - ID#393224)
G'day Auracious.
Good idea, mate. I will IRC with you. Can we say things not related to gold? Just tell me which buttons to push. Off to the basketball tonight. Gotta go eat. My favourite from catch 22 -- "GIMME EAT!!"

(Fri May 08 1998 04:28 - ID#390415)
Whither gold
Having watched the price of gold closely the past 15 months or so I have noticed that when it slides, it slides a long way, then sort of sneaks back up a little, but wilts under pressure.

Where is the real long-term structural hope for goldbugs?

( 1 ) A Y2K-initiated international financial calamity eroding confidence in paper currency
( 2 ) A visible move by the EU toward greater-than-anticipated gold backing /reserves, perhaps implemented to resolve some problem. Unlike less-developed nations which generally have little gold, EU members in general have gold, abd have every reason to reassert its stabilizing role in international currency markets.

Other than that, doesn't the march toward one-worldedness, especially in economic matters, look bad for gold?

Perhaps the price of gold is linked negatively to the perception that the planet is moving inexorably toward a one-world secular millenium.

As such, items such as the Daimler-Chrysler merger are bad for gold.

(Fri May 08 1998 04:30 - ID#393224)
Car Wars!!
Can't make up my mind. Should I buy a Mercedes Jeep so I can go camping in luxury or should I buy a Rolls Royce Beatle so I can economize in luxury??

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 04:33 - ID#24135)
I know his angle..
for Aztec..
Little leaky Nasty is trying to
compensate for a fully justified
inferiority complex.

(Fri May 08 1998 04:48 - ID#393224)
G'day J.D.
Louis Luyt a tough nut to crack, mate. No politics in sport in S.A., huh?

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 05:22 - ID#24135)
Louis Luyt
For Nick
I think Louis is a distant relative
of nasty leaky .. Similar attitude ..
Nobody likes Louis and never HAS. The
players hate him.
On the other hand .. try and come up
with a BLACK African Rugby player in
all Africa .. let alone RSA. Africans
play football.
Chester Williams doesn't count. Maybe
he LOOKS black, but he's an Afrikaans
speaking Colored .. Non South Africans
cant tell the difference.
Let Mandela field a Xhosa speaking team
to play the Boks .. Ill try to get the
concession for selling body parts.
Zulus want to play carrying cultural
weapons.. Adds a new dimension

(Fri May 08 1998 05:30 - ID#185448)
Dancing with gumboots
To Nick@C:
Hope Mercedes et al. merger with McDonalds. You could carry home your Big Mac in an Airbag!

To John D:
Month ago you posted about a nasty spike down in POG. You were right. If I wore a hat, I would lift it in admiration.

To aurator:
Good morning to you - ever read Elias Canettis "Mass and power" ( in my language "Masse und Macht". Worth a read for the man with a brain in No-AC/DC-land.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 05:38 - ID#24135)
The word on the street
to all
Some news ..

1. fashion notes .. New swiss watches .. LESS gold
more Steel and MORE PLATINUM.

2. any guesses on gold to be held by ECB?? anyone
say 20 % ??

3. I hear 32 % of all Chinese debt in with Japanese
banks. 39 % of HongKong Debt and 39 % of Indonesian.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 05:43 - ID#24135)
Thanks Fred..
But really .. It was my son the
soothsayer's forecast. I did think
gold would end April weak ( and it
was a little late ) .. but son feels
there may STILL be downside. The
weak dollar is maybe saving us.
By the way, I just heard there
was some backwardation ?? true??.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:20 - ID#284255)
Recent Stock Trends and My Y2K Hypotheses
I have a confession to make. I am disappointed the market hasn't yet corrected.
I have a fair amount of ego in the position I have taken. I have gone about as far out on a limb as one can, the branch is bending and I can hear it beginning to give way. I cashed out of my Cisco stock prior to the last split. It continues to rise lik e a helium filled balloon. I've sold one beach house and have another on the market, in the midst of what some declare is the hottest rental market of all time.
*****I have heavily invested in precious metals, and while silver has appreciated, gold has tanked.***** And finally, I have been about as public as one can be, about my conviction that Y2K will devastate the global economy, vivisect the bull and cause alternative investments to soar. It has grown more and more painful and lonely to maintain my position, in the company of a world drunk with denial.
ASK RJO - precious metals
Daily commentary

(Fri May 08 1998 06:26 - ID#284255)
Ten thousand good reasons for a d'oh Jones
Forget the millennium bug meltdown, ignore the euro apocalypse -- the financial sector's Armageddon could be here within weeks if Wall Street's Dow Jones average surges through the 10,000-point barrier.

A leading IT analyst, Gartner Group, has issued an alert, warning financial organisations to audit their computer-based trading systems to ensure they can cope with a five-figure Dow -- and will recognise 10,000 as just that, rather than 1,000.

"Because it is not ubiquitous, the circuit breakers won't cut in" to halt program trading-inspired sell-offs.

It was possible that a company which had systems that recognised 10,000 as 1,000 would have sell orders triggered across its investment portfolio, believing the market had gone into freefall.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:30 - ID#284255)
Clock Is Ticking as Korea Faces `Millennium Bug'
According to them, although it is costly to fight the bug, money is not a primary constraint. The government estimated the cost at some 800 billion won _ by no means a small amount of money, especially at a time when most private firms are under financial distress.

Critics said that, till recently, the Korean government has failed to perform this role. In a sense, however, its neglect is understandable. In fact, it has been, and still is, too preoccupied with salvaging the national economy from bankruptcy to pay adequate attention to the Year 2000 issue.

Members of this task force have begun to check computer systems in 10 key sectors _ local administration, banking and financial systems, nuclear power plants, power and gas supply, telecommunications, transportation, port facilities, medical services, small enterprises and industrial automation facilities.

To this criticism, an MIC official said that the primary responsibility for resolving the Y2K crisis lies in individual firms and organizations that operate computer systems. The government, he added, can only help them solve the problem by providing technical assistance and financial support.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:31 - ID#238295)
Kaplan retracts blowoff warning and says gold bull still intact. Expects next COT to show hedge funds neutral to short again.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:31 - ID#252391)
Could somebody please tell me
how the employment numbers will effect gold. I mean if the number of new jobs is high is that good or bad for gold. If the numbers are subdued is that good or bad for gold. Probably both are bad for gold as nothing is good for gold.

But if the numbers are up and the Fed looks likely to tighten doesn't that strenghten the dollar and bonds - higher interest rates making the dollar more attractive to hold?? Without higher interest rates isn't the dollar less competitive against the DMark for example and hence weakens which is good for gold.

So I conclude a high employment number is bearish for gold while a low number allows for no increase in rates and hence is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.

Back to my original premise - nothing is bullish for gold that is likely to happen or is happening.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:37 - ID#284255)
Investing in Gold as a Hedge for Y2K - Part II
As I explained last week, gold should prove to be a good investment in the next couple of years. Today I will discuss exactly why you should consider investing in gold.

Clearly, the lack of Y2K-related activity shows that it is possible to read these projections concerning the Y2K threat to the stock market, banking, etc., and simply continue on, without changing any plans. My question is this: If you had been an average person in 1928, and had received a revelation from the divinity of your choice who told you exactly when the Great Crash was going to occur, and if you had thought that such a market crash might very well precipitate the closure of half the banks in the nation, wouldn't you have done something to protect your assets before the lines began forming in front of your bank?

If not, then you've probably wasted your time in reading this far and might wish to stop at this point. But, if you would like to protect your savings before the "lines" start forming, I urge you to seriously consider the following.

For at least 6000 years, gold has survived every act of God and stupid act of man. This current stupid act of man will be no different. Here are some reasons why gold is being accumulated by big money:

1.Currently the cost of production of gold is higher than the world price. Either price must rise or mines will close, which will lower the supply and raise the price. 2.For the past four years, the industrial demand has been greater than the total world production of gold. The above ground inventory is about gone. If demand stays level, price must rise. 3.The levels of both the industrial and transportation stocks far exceed historic measures of true value and will eventually suffer major declines. A substantial part of the money that will come out of stocks will look for a haven of safety. All commodities will benefit from this, but gold especially. 4.The new European Currency will be 15% to 20% backed by gold. The stated plan for the Euro is to replace the US dollar as the "reserve currency" of the world. When this occurs, our dollar will sink into oblivion just like every other unprotected "banana republic" currency.

I conclude with a warning: Be sure you understand the difference between "hoarder's" gold and "collector's" gold ( as defined in FDR's Executive Order of 1933 ) before you purchase gold in any form. The big difference is that "hoarders" gold may be confiscated, while "collector's" gold may not. This is important as you evaluate your investment decisions.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:43 - ID#287312)
Sharefin / Know exactly how Tony feels :{
Yesterday I ordered a 16' tandem wheel trailor. It will be filled with canned meat, vegies, ammo, and a few Ruger Mini-14's. The trailor and it's contents will be stored in a rental storage building. I actually forsee the great possibility of marshal law, and firearms confiscation ahead. There's nothing Clinton would love more than to have such power..

(Fri May 08 1998 06:45 - ID#284255)
Why the Euro Currency Can't Happen
Reports this morning that the German government and its central bank are in a brouhaha over Helmut Kohl's plan to accommodate the transition to a eurocurrency in 1999 by revaluing the country's gold reserves reminds us once again to alert readers that eurocurrency in 1999 is a dead issue and why they bother to keep talking about it is mystifying.

There must be a large army of bureaucrats and editorialists who have a vested interested in promoting the euro idea. It is evident that voters in Great Britain and France do not want it. It is also evident that it can't be accomplished in the face of the upcoming year 2000 date conversion fiasco to which the Europeans, with exception of the British, remain still in denial. Amazing, amazing!!!

You look at the stupidity of European leadership that cannot grapple with a simple management problem of getting year 2000 date conversion done and you realize why Europe suffered The Great War, parts I ( 1914 to 1918 ) and II ( 1939 to 1945 ) . Stupid, stupid people. Our friends tell us Tony Blair understands the dimensions of the problem and intends to convoke a world congress this fall. Good news if it's true. We'll see!!!

Talk about stupidity, we are told, admittedly second hand but from a reliable source, that President Clinton and Veep Gore were told about the Y2K problem 18 months ago. Clinton understood it immediately. Gore didn't. Clinton told Gore to deal with it. Gore hasn't!!! Hmmm..

Bully Beef
(Fri May 08 1998 06:52 - ID#259261)
A lot of salt being cast around in open wounds. Hindsight is 20/20.
Like everybody else on this forum I 'm in this until I make money. That may be 20 years from now. In the meantime the salt boys are right. So have fun ! "Everydog has his day" and all those other cliches'. Oh and why not go to another site like alcholics anonymous and tell them how stupid they are for drinking.

(Fri May 08 1998 06:55 - ID#238295)
Glenn; Great call a few weeks ago when you said you were sellling more as farfel was buying more? What is your current take ?

Ray: Is your guru still projecting $550 by August? Doesn't look very likely, yes. We'll be darned lucky to reach $350.

Jin: Thanks for keeping us up to date on Asian turmoil! Hope you and your family come out of this with health and fortune intact..

(Fri May 08 1998 07:02 - ID#284255)
Build a hollow chasis and you'll be able to stash your precious.
We are toying with the idea of a mobile bus to travel around OZ in and have been wondering what to do with our money. Don't want to leave it in the bank unless it's absolutely secure.
I'd rather have it onboard and safe-n-secure.
Love to have one of those metal detectors and use it to pay our way as we truck around.
Add to the stockpile. ( :- ) ) ) )

(Fri May 08 1998 07:02 - ID#238295)
Sign of the Times
Just received an offer from a bunch of Texas shylocks to lend me up to 125% of the value of my condo. I suspect a lot of people have borrowed against their homes to play the stock market. The potential for mass foreclosures when stocks tank could lead to BIG TROUBLE in the good old USA.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:23 - ID#252391)
What's this I see...
Silver back over $6 and Gold above $300.

Recomend reading Kaplan's piece which is URLED below. Finishes with as optomistic forecast while being only slightly bullish currently. Doesn't envision Gold really getting going iuntil late this year. While its no fun sitting still, Gold inactivity now does prsent an opportunity to build a bigger position.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:28 - ID#284255)
Media Grok Today,1185,233,00.html
Press Pokes Holes in Microsoft's 'Economic Disaster' Warnings
Digging Deeper into Net Stock Mania
Y2K Bug Infects More Media
Reuters is also abreast of a new craze on Wall Street: the D10K bug.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:33 - ID#57232)
Appreciate seeing your sp-500 graph updated
Jeil: I must admit I am impressed with your model. Did it actually predict the rally of the last 3 months? How far does it look ahead reliably?

My intuitive guess is that the next 3 months may be a period of market weakness, but I doubt a 20% drop as you predict. Perhaps you will find that your model works for a time, and then it doesn't -- just like the Bradley siderograph. Your model probably works best on time scales shorter then the temporal trend of your 5 th order polynomial you use to eliminate non-stationary behavior. Markets have a tendency to change their rules of behavior abruptly. I must admit I am struggling to make a dynamic model as good as yours appears to be.

All: I think the US markets may go up today -- that is what the SEAsia market pattern suggests.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:35 - ID#287312)
Old Gold / 125% home loans
It is my belief that these loans have had a considerable impact on the equities run-up this year. Joe 6pack gets a 125% loan, pays off his other two morgages and has several thousand left to fund his favorite mutual fund, in which of coarse there is NO RISK in his mind.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:42 - ID#289357)

What's your take on the 'collectors' vs. 'hoarders' issue? My interpretation of this is that the following minimum conditions be met for 'collectors' gold:

1. Coins must be valued at 15% or more above bullion.
2. An intent for having a 'collection' should be demonstrable - e.g. multiple types of coins, multiple dates, etc. with pre-1933 coins preferred, but some high-value issues like proofs of modern gold coins could be acceptible, or perhaps a collection of modern world coins from many countries.

I do not take the confiscation issue as a particularly serious one, but just in case it turns out to be, you are correct - at least some of your holdings should qualify as above. And the rest should be very well secured from discovery.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:47 - ID#284255)
Charts @
Gold short term
Silver short term
Silver weekly

(Fri May 08 1998 07:55 - ID#284255)
I can't really comment on that one.
It's more a US position.

Plenty of others on Kitco would be far more informed.

Yes, all seems quiet. The markets seem placid and seek direction.
Swing chart is looking sick - momentum and oscillation have disappeared.
The oscilators just keep on slipping lower.

(Fri May 08 1998 07:56 - ID#57232)
Wilhelm Reich
aurator: Appreciate your comments last night. You reminded me why I respect him so much. It was not the Orgone, which I think he found ( ZPE/Aether-the creative force of the universe and source of all matter ) , but unfortunately described in confusing terms. It was his spirit! He left Germany because he would be no part of the Fascism of the time, when others ( such as Freud as I recall ) bent rather than rebelled. Unfortunately his move to the US did not go that well either when he ran afoul of the US eastablishment. But -- he gallantly fought for his cause when others might have given up. I would have liked to hear him speak, as his eloquence in the written word is impressive to say the least.

By the way, he stated in his will that his papers be sealed fo xx years -- don't remember how long -- so that the 'powers that be' could not burn everything. I think he succeeded. One of my many goals in life is to unravel the truths about his study of the 'Orgone'. Incidentally I think the Quantum Superfluid of the Aether ( ZPE ) may consist of two superfluids -- one positive and one negative. The atmospheric potential of the earth is negative, so that reflects an imbalance between + and -. What WR may have been talking about is the actual balanced Aether -- which is electrically neutral. This is much harder to measure, and to date the only device I can think of is a capacitive device based on the Casimir effect ( experimentally proven assay for the ZPE/Aether ) . Would be interesting to put one of these devices inside one of WR's boxes. His Orgone energy weather modifying cannons are beyond my comprehenion, however. A quantum superfluid could act at a distance from the cannon, so I cannot exclude his claims completely. The quantum superfluid Helium III does strange things, too.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 07:57 - ID#24135)
hey there

Is the date on that article 1997 ??

or is my screen busted ??

(Fri May 08 1998 07:57 - ID#289357)

On the weekly silver chart, I note a large increase in volume of late - do you think this is an accumulation bottom, or something else?

(Fri May 08 1998 07:59 - ID#284255)

(Fri May 08 1998 08:01 - ID#57232)
Got to go to work! Gold trends.
sharfin: What do you think about gold equities? I aggree with other posters such as Bill Buckler that our rally is still intact within an upward trending channel. What I have trouble with is separating technical from fundamental -- at some point the trouble in SEAsia will be discounted, and gold will rally again -- probably within the next two weeks. Comments?

I would guess that the safest time to jump back in is just after the China debt situation surfaces in a big way -- devaluations, etc., and panic in Hong Kong.

(Fri May 08 1998 08:03 - ID#284255)
Yes I noticed that.
Perhaps contracts being rolled over.
RJ or DA would have more knowledge there.
I looked at the Dec contract and there is a buid up there too.

What worries me is that the people who are working on this are worried.

According to last week's Newsweek magazine, a poll conducted two months ago asked the people who are responsible for fixing the Y2K problem to predict how bad it's going to be if it's not solved. These are the people who, like my cousin, have the job of fixing the computers at their companies or government agencies. Some 229 experts responded to the poll. They're scared.

Newsweek reports that most of them expect, at the very least, a plunge in the stock market and a wave of bankruptcies. Many of them predict gas stations with no gas, interruptions in power supplies and runs on banks. Ten percent of them expect economic depression, a collapse of the stock market and local martial law. A few particularly gloomy ones even predict a collapse of the federal government and possible famine.

Remember: These are the people who understand the problem.

(Fri May 08 1998 08:07 - ID#289357)
sharefin @ Y2K

Yes - and when the despair of the programmers sets in - they will ultimately be heading for the hills, abandoning the effort. When you see that, the outcome is cast in stone ( if not already ) .

(Fri May 08 1998 08:10 - ID#284255)
I think it depends on the Dow/markets.
If the Dow extends into an upleg, then gold will bounce around.
If we get the Dow failing, I expect gold to be put under pressure.

Gold, silver, copper plus all the markets seem to be at a pivot point.
Very hard to pinpoint their direction.
A straddle or stay away - or quiet accumulation of physical.

The next few weeks should confirm the direction.

(Fri May 08 1998 08:10 - ID#411149)
OLD GOLD- I ain't talked to him lately he issa off to Europe to buy
another of them oil and gold fields. @ $350 I will be varry RICH,
@ $500 my KIDS will be varry RICH.

Rebecca Nolan says today should be the low for now then slow and up.
She says the BOW WOW DOW will make a HIGH this year and gold and
South Africa should do varry good. She called this slide to the day
and the NIKI slide to the day, she ain't perfect but general direction
has been right on.

Tally Ho

(Fri May 08 1998 08:15 - ID#411149)
All- I got a CLOSE friend DIEING of cancer. Can anyone e-mail me
some specific info on B-17, leatril or anything that might work.
I know cancer is a MONEY industry and they really don't want a
cure but I want my friend to see his daughter graduate.


Crystal Ball
(Fri May 08 1998 08:18 - ID#287367)
@ Silverbaron re: collections
You will certainly be safe with 19 th Century type coins. 20th Century commemoratives, high grade uncirculated coins and proofs are also considered "collectibles".

Crystal Ball
(Fri May 08 1998 08:31 - ID#287367)
4.3%! Bonds slightly lower. SPOOS still up about 400

(Fri May 08 1998 08:34 - ID#427357)
OLD GOLD - Sign of the Times

You said: "Just received an offer from a bunch of Texas shylocks to lend me up to 125% of the value of my condo." I would like to carry your thought one step further.

Yes indeed, this is the sign of the IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE of
the times that bankers are aggressively extending loans of an imprudent nature. To be sure many people have taken advantage of these 'easy loans' to increase their investments in the stock market. But perhaps it is even more speculative than you think.

As an example, Let's say a retiree has a modest fully paid-for condo worth $100,000. Some bank extends him a loan through the mails
for 125% of equity - that's $125,000 the innocent retire takes to some greedy Wall Street broker for "investment" in securities that are demonstrating all-time highs by all standard and proven measures of stock valuations ( PER, Dividend Yield & Market to Book ) . However, the sharp-eyed broker goes even further. He works on the retiree's greed and ignorance. The broker says: "Instead of just buying $125,000 of ABC stock, our firm will allow you 50% margin - as you certainly are a credit-worthy person."

Consequently, the hapless retiree now has $250,000 invested in a stock boasting an astronomical PER of 29, a paltry Dividend Yield of 1.35%, and an outrageous Markket to Book of 6 to 1.

In essence the "not-yet-30-year-old" banker has allowed the retiree to to speculate 150% OVER AND ABOVE THE TOTAL VALUE OF HIS HOME. This is a risk a retiree can ill afford - because a bear market will completely wipe-out ALL THE EQUITY HE HAS IN HIS HOME. Remember, as a retiree he no longer has the steady work income to allow him to make MARGIN CALLS AS THE MARKET SLOWLY DECLINES.

Is it not this blatant demonstration of banking imprudence,

In the event of a general market decline of ONLY 40%, the hapless retiree has lost his entire home! I say "ONLY," because in the Bear Market of 1973/74, stocks plummeted about 55%. Is the banker going to continue lending money to the now broke retiree... as the IMF is doing
in SE Asia? Methinks not. The banker has long since foreclosed on the the now homeless retiree. Nonetheless, there is poetic justice here.

The aggressive bank which took advantage of the unbridled greed of the times, is now in receivership - because the amount of its un-performing loans has soared, due to its reckless loan practices of
extending credit to 125% of home-equity. Indeed, the crime was aided and abetted by the "friendly" stock broker.

A sign of the times...? NO, a sign of pending and looming
social disaster!!!!

(Fri May 08 1998 08:39 - ID#254269)
Thanks for your 18.34 last night re ICQ. I scanned the overnight posts but did not see a second one from you on this subject. Did I miss it ?
Thanks for info.

Crystal Ball
(Fri May 08 1998 08:43 - ID#287376)
Following unemployment report
Bonds getting hammered, SPOOS well off morning's highs

(Fri May 08 1998 08:48 - ID#289357)

Meanwhile, the distressed sale of this property ( and all others in concert ) will destroy market valuations for everyone. While this is of little concern to those of have fully-paid properties THAT THEY DO NOT INTEND TO EVER SELL, it will be a disaster for all others, including the construction-related and real estate businesses, the local real-estate taxation base and the ability of local bond issuers to pay their coupons.

(Fri May 08 1998 08:49 - ID#254269)
Texas and Home Equity Loans.
vronsky. just read your 8.30 post. The reason so much home equity lending is going on in Texas right now, is that there was a Consitutional Prohibition on home equity loans until January 1998. That's when the floodgates opened in Texas. I probably get two or three solicitations a week from some lender like that. Makes me wonder how much is outstanding in home equity loans throughout the US ? Has to be a huge amount ! ! You're right, it will be a "double loss" for the retiree in your example. You should never speculate with borrowed money .

(Fri May 08 1998 08:51 - ID#230376)
@ Suspicious ....

I have a 6 mos. supply of freeze dried food, a 12 guage, bag of silver and several gold " nuggets " you need someone to "ride shotgun"?

(Fri May 08 1998 08:59 - ID#31868)
Ray - I do not have a link,
I wish I did, but I have no personal knowledge in this area at all. Good luck. I too have bathed in the Sea of Helpless. Keep your chin up, while there is breath, there IS HOPE my friend.


(Fri May 08 1998 09:09 - ID#243166)
@Silverbaron -- Real Estate
Was wondering... do you have any statistics regarding the percentage of residential property owned outright with no mortgage or home equity loans attached? I don't have a clue, but IMHO if real estate were to tank even 10% could get really ugly.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:09 - ID#328159)

Current chat on IRC, Undernet channel #daytraders:

LadyNada- SCLN mentioned on bloomberg... I think my mom wrote it down
Moonup- dress down Friday.. y'all did well..
udaman- wish some of these people would quit work so the futures would go\
back up : )
mitycujo- lol
BudFox- thanks, I thought concerns were a little high so looking better\
Pej- Futures MUST die!
itrader- uda, they should become traders
ticker62- good morning traders
Rusti- EGHT 55K
udaman- i said unemployed...not broke : )
itrader- 62
itrader- heheh
fez- any movement on ifly?
THX2- the job/inflation figures might give us a hard time today
Gravitar- Can't wait for WallSt to come in and start XYBR bashin

(Fri May 08 1998 09:10 - ID#254269)
David Copperfield has nothing on Japanese Bankers
This morning's WSJ has an article on Page A13. Japan's Banks will write off $76 Billion of bad loans at their financial year ended in March. The article says that they have another $435 Billion ( approx ) of "questionable" laons. These are the loans they are talking about ! !

(Fri May 08 1998 09:10 - ID#257148)
not really small change
Now *that's* a coin

no wonder money can burn a hole in your pocket, a one pound silver eagle, anyone know how limited the mintage is?

(Fri May 08 1998 09:20 - ID#289357)

Real Estate is not something I know a great deal about, but I would be surprised if the percentage of fully-paid residences exceeds maybe 10%.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:21 - ID#298259)
Spot Gold...
as of 9:20 at $300.20 according to Bloomberg news

(Fri May 08 1998 09:24 - ID#187243)
Short gold
Are the big funds short gold now ??

(Fri May 08 1998 09:25 - ID#254269)
"Lifeboat Drills; What to do if Stocks hit Berg " is the title of article on Page C1
of today's WSJ. ( Fund Track article about how stocks can actually drop in price ) . How bright are some of these reporters ?

(Fri May 08 1998 09:26 - ID#269469)

CNN has a few interesting articles, try going to

and putting in the word "cancer". The one article in particular I was looking for is at

best wishes for you and your friend.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:27 - ID#335190)
12.4 tonnes gold @ BIS holding - Cambodian gold
May 8, 1998

Cambodia secures $135 mln in old gold - report

PHNOM PENH, May 8 ( Reuters ) - The Cambodian government has secured 12.4 tonnes of gold worth $135 million held in an account in Switzerland by the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , the Phnom Penh Post newspaper reported on Friday.

The Phnom Penh Post quoted Finance Minister Keat Chhon as saying the government was determined to get the gold. "That gold belongs to us. We must have it back. No one can stop us," Keat Chhon told the paper.

A former deputy governor of the NBC and prominent opposition supporter, Tioulong Saumura, confirmed the existence of the Cambodian gold.
"I knew it existed. It's registered as reserves at the NBC,"

She said it was not clear if the BIS had released the gold yet and the opposition was determined to block it going to the current government.
"If we need to we'll file a suit," she said.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:28 - ID#284255)
The Guest Room - From the horses mouth!!!

Good selection of articles.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:30 - ID#328159)
US jobless rate articles
U.S. jobless rate falls to 28-year low

INSTANT VIEW--U.S. nonfarm payrolls 262,000 in Apr

(Fri May 08 1998 09:32 - ID#26793)
Some see economic danger signals; production glut, deflation

(Fri May 08 1998 09:33 - ID#31868)
Being very familiar with real estate in NYC and LI I can tell you without
hesitation people in these two specific areas will get slaughtered in the months. The property price are ridiculous and the dummies can't line up fast enough. In addition I have lived in many rural areas of the US and I have never seen more SUV and four wheel drive vehicles of every kind than here on LI.

Pathetic. These people have bought into the BS big time. Look for major problems here, big time problems.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:37 - ID#298259)
Read Mozel's 12:34 post yesterday, it included a place to get more information at the very end of the post which was:

WRITERS and Research, Inc.
4810 Saint Paul Boulevard
Rochester, NY 14617
716 544 2288

(Fri May 08 1998 09:39 - ID#328159)
IRC chatter
Rrr_away- 09:34 ET Early Movers: ENMD +1, ICGN +5/16, KTEL -1 1/8, ASND +1 1/2, MSFT -1, SEEK\
+1 1/4, MARG +5/16. Dow +16, Nasdaq -0.35, S&P +2.49, Russell 2000 +0.25, SOX +0.72.

_ric- looks like mkt will shake off employment figures

_ric- portfolio managers have 2 1/2 billion to blow into the mkt this week

Rrr_- 09:40 ET Indices Rebounding: Dow has surged ahead 42 pts. Nasdaq +4.4. Individual movers\
include KTEL +2 1/2, SPYG +1, and BLSI +7/16.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:41 - ID#328159)
IRC chatter - Dow steaming ahead at open
BudFox- Bob likes Viagra
monylovr- 0,3 DOW +52 NASDAQ +6.39 SPX +5.90 TICK +313 TRIN .50
WTT7- DYGN strong start
vss- jery: ERICY news?
SoupNazi- Market buyers everywhere

(Fri May 08 1998 09:41 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Sorry I wasn't on last night. Thunderstorms were prevalent! Well. so far, my purchase of some June gold futures yesterday morning seems to be working out. I decided to hold on to them even though gold closed below 301; it still hadn't 'dissed' the trendline. Stops were in tight. Gold now up nearly two bucks from the close. I'm up nearly 3 bucks per contract. BUT, following a downward trendline off the shortterm intraday highs, june gold must get above 301.7 and then not fail that line. Believe when I say that this downdraft is NOT necessarily over! Same with silver unless it can reclaim 6.00 + on the July contract. Potentially the same with platinum, though, unless it breaks yesterdays lows, it really looks good at this time! All in all, it 'just' might be time to purchase a bit more physical.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:46 - ID#31868)
It is a little early to tell, but, the fumes from the body of the previous Shaman
wafting out of the smoke-house into the courtyard here at Cuervo Central seem to be having a positive effect/affect on the new Shaman.

Time will tell. The mood of the villagers is tense and aggravated. But, as of yet they have not started to pile wood under the cauldron.

Time will tell.

(Fri May 08 1998 09:48 - ID#342315)
Creeks all full and more rain due. We can still crush if you want to. With all this rain, we're bound to have a dry season soon. Let me know, Charlie

(Fri May 08 1998 09:53 - ID#289357)
Swiss Annuity Tax Deferrals and non-reportability -- NOT !

A friend ( who owns these, and was about to explode ) just threw this on my desk, from the current Oxford Club Newsletter:


"The IRS recently ended tax deferral on most Swiss and foreign annuity contracts. The law affects all annuities issued since April 7, 1995. The admirable Swiss tradition of tax deferrment and non-reportable Swiss franc diversification has effectly been halted. As the annuity owner, you now have to declare all yearly anniuty interests, dividends and currency gains as personal income on your 1040 U.S. tax return."

(Fri May 08 1998 09:53 - ID#26793)
Fed expected to drain reserves again this weekend.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:00 - ID#26793)
Vengold, Lihir news

(Fri May 08 1998 10:00 - ID#20135)
Friday May 8, 12:51 am Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Jiang Zemin bullish despite Asian crisis

BEIJING, May 8 ( Reuters ) - China does not fear export competition from Southeast Asian countries whose currencies have crumbled in the regional financial crisis, Chinese President Jiang Zemin said.


Jiang repeated China's pledge not to devalue its currency in line with tumbling currencies among its neighbours.

``We still have enough confidence to say we will be able to maintain a stable currency,'' he said.


(Fri May 08 1998 10:03 - ID#26793)
Morning precious metals news from London

(Fri May 08 1998 10:03 - ID#31868)
The scumbag Coward Erect and the Robbing Republican Congress are
responsible for the tax laws. Notice it moves forward from 95. Ah, ya, the Clintonistas and the Republicanistas all have their little annuities protected.

Who gets screwed...ah, ya, WE THE PEOPLE...


(Fri May 08 1998 10:05 - ID#238295)
Vronsky: Could not agree more with your post re: home equity loans and the markets.

I sent an E mail to noted stock market bear Bill Fleckenstein yesterday asking for comments on my feeling that gold must have a big runnup before our market goes down for the count. His answer -- gold will not have a really big run until after US stocks hit the skids. The exact opposite of Sharefin's projection. I still feel strongly that gold will have a considerable run before the the bubble finally bursts. What happens after that very uncertain.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:08 - ID#257148)
Shan't go near ICq again until they release an unbuggy Mac version. My message to you just went out when my puta crashed again. Email me any follow up comments..

(Fri May 08 1998 10:09 - ID#31868)
Old Gold - if only 1,000,000 people in equities jump into gold with $100,000 each
it would be a boon to the metal shares. Just a thought.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:10 - ID#20135)
Okay, this is VERY,VERY unusal ... BIG trouble is at about
some discussion on just what must be happening to the usdollar to cause all these HIGHLY unusual drainings ( READ TO MANY USDOLLARS IN THE SYSTEM ) . I assume massive usdollar cash flows must be coming back to the USG ... because Euro dropping usdollar reserves, asain dread of usdollar,....

Draining is removing usdollars from market, they are not draining a lake here; they are trying to drain the OCEAN. To many usdollars... sounds like trouble to me. USdollar is under attack ... and I don't think it is winning this time...


Date: Fri May 08 1998 09:53
Donald ( Fed expected to drain reserves again this weekend. ) ID#26793:

(Fri May 08 1998 10:10 - ID#410215)
..... LGB Indicator .....

The gold market is AB


It is

(Fri May 08 1998 10:18 - ID#22956)
Aurator....and ANYONE....or NOONE.....
That is a Huuuuuuuuuge coin. It seems $195.00 is a little pricey. I still like it. Can ANYONE give me an opinion of the finger is gettin itchy for that phone. uh huh. It only has ( approx ) $72.00 worth of silver in it...........please someone hurry and tell me NOT to do it.

away.....from the phone

testinghismetal ( mettle )

and I'll be damned if I waited too long to pick up some mini-spoos ( I gamble less money ) ......I was waiting for today like Oldman may have started a bit early, YES ( ? ) Had my prices studied, picked and purchased ( in my mind ) ......... ( oh hell ) .....there will be other times, OK.

go lakers ( ! )

(Fri May 08 1998 10:20 - ID#372262)
Something wrong with your link to Vengold/Lihir news. Could you check it again and repost the correct link, please? Thanks

(Fri May 08 1998 10:21 - ID#22956)
could you post the 'legend' for the NAB/AB thingy.......I seemed to have misplaced ( again in my mind ) the meanings. Thanks in Advance. buy England by the 


(Fri May 08 1998 10:23 - ID#284255)
OLD Gold
I am of the belief that gold shares will get hurt with a Dow crash,
And that gold will take off from that point onwards.

I didn't think I'd changed my mind.
But I'm not sure or am I???

(Fri May 08 1998 10:25 - ID#413109)
Hey man--
Date: Fri May 08 1998 10:03
tolerant1 ( The scumbag Coward Erect and the Robbing Republican Congress are ) ID#31868:
You're addressing a worldwide audience, devoted, hopefully to PMs,
you got a gripe, take it up with your local congressman, or woman.
Be a litte "Tolerant"!!

(Fri May 08 1998 10:28 - ID#213265)
@the scene
EB -- $195 for a 1 pound silver coin? That works out to over 12 bucks per OZ. Guess it would make for an interesting curio though.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 10:30 - ID#24135)
Exploits of soothsayer son.
to anyone who cares
As I said yesterday, son called to
say we buy calls s&p. The lad has
got natural rhythm. He said he also
had bought puts on newcrest gold at
5 and had just sold some at 18!! I
did not have any of that action.
I guess he still figures odds
favour more gold downside. I sold
all Harmony off today except for
options and I hate myself. But I got
a few more DDeep prefs. Im 50 %
cash. It's not like me.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:33 - ID#213265)
@the scene
A mistake EB. That coin is 12 OZ, not a pound, that works out to over 16 bucks per OZ! Now THATS a premium!

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 10:36 - ID#24135)
doesnt work like that
for tolerant
If you vote them out of office, they
just come back in different suits.
You need something more FINAL.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:37 - ID#31868)
reify - in that what you said is true, my comment was directed at Americans and
those in different countries. I want the American taxpayer to smarten up and I want people in other countries to stop "borrowing" our money from our children.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:38 - ID#31868)
John Disney - so what you are saying is that I have to get a bigger cauldron
and expand the smoke-house...o'tay...I can do this.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:41 - ID#345176)
The VENGold news

(Fri May 08 1998 10:43 - ID#328159)
IRC chatter

Microsoft being such a heavyweight, this will be seen as good news to the bulls - but not gold bulls!


This one probably less likely to tank MSFT?

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 10:43 - ID#24135)
Gold will come off if market does
for Sharefin ..
I agree completely with your idea that
a dow drop hurts gold too. Im pretty sure
of that. However, US and UK markets are
liquidity driven and there is nothing in
sight to change that.
I believe a drop in the Dow must be
triggered by some external surprise
event that we will be unable to
predict. It will take everyone by surprise.
.. even us.
Maybe Not Mike .. Stay close Mike.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:45 - ID#22956)
YES. You are right. My brain is still in REM sleep........
The coin would make for nice conversation though. But then the conversation would soon change and I would still be out $10/oz.......oh well, it looks pretty. scrap that deal and caress my Mountie

(Fri May 08 1998 10:54 - ID#31868)
ah, ya.................expanding the cauldron, putting additions on the smoke-house

(Fri May 08 1998 10:55 - ID#31868)
If I only had a brain!?!?!?!?!?!

(Fri May 08 1998 10:55 - ID#289357)
tolerant1 @ Swiss annuities non-reportability cancellation

( If the public finds out about this, which they probably won't ) ,

What I fear is that they will react in the exact opposite manner that you and I react - they will be GLAD to see this avenue of tax shelter closed off, as they will see benefit from it. I also expect the same sort of response if gold confiscation ever came to pass. ( Who cares about those greedy gold hoarders, anyway? )

Rather than be pro-active and seeking safety for their assets, the generally brain-dead public will react in favor of putting everyone's assets in the same sinking boat. And then we will all sink together.

(Fri May 08 1998 10:56 - ID#222231)
John Disney, All
John, your reference to suits reminded me of a story my father told me once regarding the nature of man. Here it is:

There once was a man who worked for his employer for many years who was caught stealing from his employer and was immediately fired. This man said to his boss, "Boss, give me one more day and I'll show you in no uncertain terms why you should not fire me".

His boss said, "Ok, you have one more day".

That evening, the employee told his wife to press his suit, wash and iron a shirt, polish his shoes, etc. The next morning, before going into work, he dressed to the hilt and looked like a million bucks. He then told his wife to tear off the right sleeve of his suit. She was puzzled but commenced to do his bidding.

He walks into his bosses office and his boss said, "You look terrific, but why is your suit sleeve missing?".

The employee says, "See boss, I only need one sleeve to be complete. ANOTHER employee you hire to replace me will have to start from the beginning".

Such is life! BBL

(Fri May 08 1998 10:59 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron - Au contraire, mon ami - WE WILL NOT ALL SINK...NEVER...
Lead the swine to the cauldron, we will run three shifts if we have to. The revelers at Cuervo Central are making additions to the smoke-house and the fleet is ready at a moments notice to cast off the bow lines.

Yossarian was right!!!

(Fri May 08 1998 11:02 - ID#413109)
Got the message- why not email me
we'll discuss this matter further in private, ok?
Your either ill informed or not informed at all.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:02 - ID#413109)
Got the message- why not email me
we'll discuss this matter further in private, ok?
Your either ill informed or not informed at all.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:05 - ID#31868)
And for those of you that wonder about my state of mind, I do try, really...
I went to a bookstore and asked the saleswoman where the Self Help
section was, she said if she told me it would defeat the purpose.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:07 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Sold half of my gold purchase at resistance. Will buy back should it be deemed proper.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:08 - ID#269409)
@ EB...Gold market report (condensed and summarized)
AB or ASB can be used synonamously for "as before"

(Fri May 08 1998 11:23 - ID#269409)
Gold seems to LIKE $300
Is it just me, or does Gold seem to have a magnetic attraction to the $300 level whenever it gets close? ( In spite of it being a non ferrous metal.. )

Friday May 8, 6:53 am Eastern Time

Gold recovers to $300 ahead of U.S. options expiry

LONDON, May 8 ( Reuters ) - Gold bounced back to $300.00 an ounce on Friday, and was
likely to hold that level as the market awaited the day's expiry on New York's COMEX
June gold options, dealers said.

Gold fixed higher at $299.15 an ounce in the morning, up on the previous afternoon's
$298.10, before rising quickly to be last traded at $300.00/$300.50, versus New York's
Thursday close of $298.35/$298.75.

Silver, like gold, had begun the day quietly before ticking up towards resistance at $6.00
an ounce. It was last at $5.98/$6.01 versus its $5.96/$5.99 close.

Palladium was again weaker amid increased liquidity in the lending market, while
platinum was quiet.

``I think the sell-off yesterday has rattled a few people's confidence,'' one London dealer
said of the gold market.

``While everybody feels there has got to be a further correction on the downside, we have
got the COMEX options expiry today, which probably means that we won't see very much
at all,'' she added.

Another dealer saw the price pivoting around $300.00, but unlikely to move much in
either direction.

Thursday's $4.00 fall -- which began as European trade kicked off, before the market
corrected itself somewhat through the day -- was sparked by a producer sale, the first
dealer said.

``We saw some producer business, which pushed it three or four dollars lower. Maybe on
Monday we'll see a retracement down to $296.00,'' she said.

Gold's rally late last month to near $315.00 saw only muted producer activity, with
dealers saying many miners' sales orders above the market had missed out when the price
fell back.

In Australian dollar terms gold got to the mid-A$480s, but even there failed to attract
much business.

``I think they realised yesterday that they'd missed the boat,'' the dealer added.

The Australian gold price was last at A$470.82/A$471.82.

A slight rise in borrowing rates indicated some hedging activity from the mining sector,
said T.Hoare & Co. precious metals analyst Rhona O'Connell.

London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) implied lease rates for one-month gold were
at 1.09 percent on Friday, up slightly from the recent low of 0.77 percent.

As from Friday, physical delivery rules for London silver began a return to their usual
five-day period, from the temporary 15 days, with delivery periods due to shorten by one
day each day until May 22.

The LBMA put the extension in place on February 5 in an attempt to improve liquidity in
a spot silver market blighted by spiralling lease rates.

February's price spike to $7.90 an ounce bid, before the temporary rules were imposed,
followed a surprise announcement by U.S. investor Warren Buffett that his Berkshire
Hathaway Inc investment firm had built a 130-million-ounce stake in the market.

``We continue to advocate that silver does have the personality of a particularly fickle
feline -- purring one minute and spitting the next -- and is best left alone,'' O'Connell said
in a report.

Palladium again looked weary on Friday, falling in European trade to $313.00/$323.00
versus its $325.00/$335.00 New York close. Platinum was last down 50 cents at

Nearby contracts in yen-based palladium futures on Japan's TOCOM exchange had earlier
retreated due to falls in spot prices and lending rates, Tokyo traders said.

One-month palladium lease rates were indicated at around 100 percent, flat from
Thursday's New York level but down sharply from more than 200 percent last week.

``It appears the market was beginning to factor in the potential resumption of Russian
exports ( of platinum group metals ) ,'' one trader said.

Russia, the world's main palladium supplier, has not exported any platinum group metals
so far this year.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:28 - ID#113316)
Gold has good buying support under $300, silver under $6. Speculators in the market are moving the price up and down erratically. Fundamentals have not changed one bit. Demand for gold and silver exceeds new supply. Future of gold prices is clouded by whether CBs decide to sell and/or lease gold at or below the cost of replacement of that resource. Silver has no such constraint.

I think the recent drop in both gold and silver prices was mostly a result of speculators liquidating their long positions, most likely involuntarily by stop-loss action.

Investors, like WB, realize the fundamentals and have made their investments with that in mind. The trend is silver is up to higher prices. The trend in gold is also up if CBs act in a rational fashion, and I feel that is what they eventually will do ( the financially weak and less rational CBs are already out of the market ) .

Gold and silver prices will both explode to the upside when we have more investors and less speculators in the market!

(Fri May 08 1998 11:28 - ID#269409)
Since the "open minded" seem to love enlightening, Bandwidth consuming posts
So-called "alternative" therapies, mostly derived from ancient healing traditions
and superstitions, have a strong appeal for people who feel left behind by the
explosive growth of scientific knowledge. Paradoxically, however, their nostalgia
for a time when things seemed simpler and more natural is mixed with respect
for the power of modern science ( Toumey 1996 ) . They want to believe that
"natural" healing practices can be explained by science. Purveyors of alternative
medicine have, therefore, been quick to invoke the language and symbols of
science. Not surprisingly, the mechanisms proposed to account for the alleged
efficacy of such methods as touch therapy, psychic healing, and homeopathy
involve serious misrepresentations of modern physics.

The No-Medicine Medicine

Homeopathy, founded by a German physician, Samuel Hahnemann ( 1755-1843 ) ,
is a relative newcomer. Homeopathy is based on the so-called "law of similars"
( similia similibus curantur ) , which asserts that substances that produce a certain
set of symptoms in a healthy person can cure those same symptoms in someone
who is sick. Although there are related notions in Chinese medicine, Hahnemann
seems to have arrived at the idea independently. Hahnemann spent much of his
life testing natural substances to find out what symptoms they produced and
prescribing them for people who exhibited the same symptoms. Although the
purely anecdotal evidence on which he based his conclusions would not be taken
seriously today, homeopathy as currently practiced still relies almost entirely on
Hahnemann's listing of substances and their indications for use.

Natural substances, of course, are often acutely toxic. Troubled by the side effects that often accompanied his medications,
Hahnemann experimented with diluting them. After each successive dilution, he subjected the solution to vigorous shaking, or
"succussion." He made the remarkable discovery that although dilution eliminated the side effects, it did not diminish the
effectiveness of the medications. This is rather grandly known as "the law of infinitesimals."

Hahnemann actually made a third "discovery," which his followers no longer mention. "The sole true and fundamental cause
that produces all the countless forms of disease," he writes in his Organon, "is psora." Psora is more commonly known as
"itch." This principle does not seem to involve any laws of physics and is in any case ignored by modern followers of

By means of successive dilutions, extremely dilute solutions can be achieved rather easily. The dilution limit is reached when
the volume of solvent is unlikely to contain a single molecule of the solute. Hahnemann could not have known that in his
preparations he was, in fact, exceeding the dilution limit. Although he was contemporary with the physicist Amadeo Avogadro
( 1776-1856 ) , Hahnemann's Organon der Rationellen Heilkunde was published in 1810, one year before Avogadro advanced his
famous hypothesis, and many years before other physicists actually determined Avogadro's number. ( Avogadro showed that
there is a large but finite and specific number of atoms or molecules in a mole of substance, specifically 6.022 3 1023. A mole
is the molecular weight of a substance expressed in grams. Thus, a mole of water, H2O, molecular weight 2 + 16 = 18, is 18
grams. So there are 6.022 3 1023 water molecules in 18 grams of water. )

Modern day followers of Hahnemann, however, are perfectly aware of Avogadro's number. Nevertheless, they regularly
exceed the dilution limit -- often to an astonishing extent. I recently examined the dilutions listed on the labels of dozens of
standard homeopathic remedies sold over the counter in health stores, and increasingly in drug stores, as remedies for
everything from nervousness to flu. These remedies are normally in the form of lactose tablets on which a single drop of the
"diluted" medication has been placed. The "solvent" is usually a water/alcohol mixture. The lowest dilution I found listed on
any of these bottles was 6X, but most of the dilutions were 30X or even, in the case of oscillococcinum, an astounding 200C.
( Oscillococcinum, which is derived from duck liver, is the standard homeopathic remedy for flu. As we will see, however, its
widespread use poses little threat to the duck population. )

What do these notations mean? The notation 6X means that the active substance is diluted 1:10 in a water-alcohol mixture and
succussed. This procedure ( diluting and succussing ) is repeated sequentially six times. The concentration of the active
substance is then one part in ten raised to the sixth power ( 106 ) , or one part per million. An analysis of the pills would be
expected to find numerous impurities at the parts-per-million level.

The notation 30X means the 1:10 dilution, followed by succussion, is repeated thirty times. That results in one part in 1030, or
1 followed by thirty zeroes. I don't know what the name for that number is, but let me put it this way: you would need to take
some two billion pills, a total of about a thousand tons of lactose, to expect to get even one molecule of the medication. In
other words, the pills contain nothing but lactose and the inevitable impurities. This is literally no-medicine medicine.

And what of 200C? That means the active substance is sequentially diluted 1:100 and succussed two hundred times. That would
leave you with only one molecule of the active substance to every one hundred to the two hundredth power molecules of
solvent, or 1 followed by four hundred zeroes ( 10400 ) . But the total number of atoms in the entire universe is estimated to be
about one googol, which is 1 followed by a mere one hundred zeroes.

This is the point at which we are all supposed to realize how ridiculous this is and share a good laugh. But homeopaths don't
laugh. They've done the same calculation. And while they agree that not a single molecule of the active substance could
remain, they contend it doesn't matter, the water/alcohol mixture somehow remembers that the substance was once there. The
process of succussion is presumed to charge the entire volume of the liquid with the same memory. Is there any evidence for
such a memory?

Smart Water?

Homeopaths have been administering this sort of no-medicine medicine for two centuries. Most scientists, however, first
became aware of their extraordinary claims when Nature published a paper by French epidemiologist/homeopathist Jacques
Benveniste and several colleagues, in which he reported that an antibody solution continued to evoke a biological response
even if it was diluted to 30X -- far beyond the dilution limit ( Davenas et al. 1988 ) . Benveniste interpreted this as evidence that
the water somehow "remembered" the antibody.

In reaching that conclusion, Benveniste turned conventional scientific logic on its head. A large part of experimental science
consists of devising tests to insure that an experimental outcome is not the result of some subtle artifact of the conduct or
design of the experiment. "Infinite dilution" is one such procedure used by chemists. The effect of some reagent, for example,
is plotted as a function of concentration. If at low concentrations, the plot does not extrapolate through the origin, it is taken as
proof that the observed effect is due to something other than the reagent. By Benveniste's logic, it's evidence that the reagent
leaves some sort of imprint on the solution that continues to produce the effect.

Attention had been called to Benveniste's article by the editor of Nature, John Maddox, who pointed out in an editorial that
Benveniste had to be wrong ( Maddox 1988 ) . Because the reviewer could not point to any actual mistake, Nature had agreed to
publish the article in the spirit of open scientific exchange. Reviewers, of course, have no way of knowing if the author
faithfully reports the results of the measurement, or whether the instruments employed are faulty. Nevertheless, the existence
of this one paper published in a respected journal has been widely trumpeted by the homeopathic community as proof that
homeopathy has a legitimate scientific basis.

The Maddox editorial encouraged other scientists to repeat the Benveniste experiments. An attempt to replicate the work as
precisely as possible was reported by Foreman and colleagues in Nature in 1993 ( Foreman et. al. 1993 ) . The authors found
that "no aspect of the data is consistent with [Benveniste's] claim." I am aware of no work that replicates Benveniste's findings.
Why was Foreman's water dumber than Benveniste's? We will return to that question.

Quite apart from the matter of how the water/alcohol mixture remembers, there are obvious questions that cry out to be
asked: 1 ) Why does the water/alcohol mixture remember the healing powers of an active substance, but forget the side effects?
2 ) What happens when the drop of solution evaporates, as it must, from the lactose tablet? Is the memory transferred to the
lactose? 3 ) Does the water remember other substances as well? Depending on its history, the water might have been in contact
with a staggering number of different substances.

A number of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this miraculous memory. These mechanisms are discussed by
Wayne Jonas in his recent book, Healing with Homeopathy, coauthored by Jennifer Jacobs ( Jonas and Jacobs 1996 ) . Jonas is the
Director of the Office of Alternative Medicine of the National Institutes of Health and is identified on the book jacket as one of
"America's leading researchers of homeopathic medicine." Jonas appears, at the very outset, to acknowledge the possibility
that the effect of homeopathic medicine may "turn out to be only a placebo effect." But as we will see, in alternative medicine
circles the placebo effect can be the weirdest explanation of all.

If it is not a placebo effect, Jonas says, the "information" from the active substance must be stored in some way in the
water/alcohol solution, perhaps in the structure of the liquid mixture. There has been an abundance of speculation about what
sort of "structure" this might be: clusters of water molecules arranged in specific patterns ( Anagnostatos 1994 ) ; arrangements
of isotopes such as deuterium or oxygen-18 ( Berezin 1990 ) ; or "coherent vibration" of the water molecules ( Rubik 1990 ) . I
could not find a single piece of evidence supporting any of these speculations, and there are sound scientific reasons for
rejecting each of them. Jonas refers to structural studies showing regions of local order in liquids. A "snapshot" of the
structure of a water/alcohol mixture will of course show regions of local order, but these are transient; they cannot persist
beyond the briefest of relaxation times depending on the temperature. That not even local order can persist is the definition of
a liquid. The problem, of course, is entropy. The second law of thermodynamics is the most firmly established of all natural
laws, but even if you could somehow repeal the second law, you would still confront the question of how this stored
information can be communicated to the body.

The Illusive Biophoton

One possibility, according to Jonas, is that information is transferred by "bioelectromagnetic energy." Here he cites, as "some
of the most carefully executed work in this area," studies of the effect of serially agitated dilutions of frog thyroxine on
highland frogs that are in the climbing stage of metamorphosis ( Endler et al. 1994 ) . Thyroxine is reported to increase the
climbing rate of the frogs -- and the response continues even after the thyroxine dilutions are taken far beyond the dilution
limit. In other words, when it is certain that there is no thyroxine.

That would appear to be clear evidence that something other than thyroxine is responsible for the stimulation of the frogs. In
this case, for example, it might be the alcohol that is producing the climbing response, or some impurity, or the frogs might
be stimulated by the act of administering the medication, or there might be subconscious bias on the part of the experimenter
in deciding whether the frogs are stimulated. Once again, however, scientific logic is turned on its head; the results are
interpreted as evidence that an imprint of thyroxine has somehow been left in the water.

But even if the water contains information about thyroxine, how is this information communicated to the frogs? Rather than
administering the water/alcohol solution directly to the frog, the researchers tried putting the solution in a sealed glass test
tube and placing it in the water with the frogs. The frogs still responded. Why am I not surprised?

What conclusion did the researchers come to? They concluded that information that once resided in the molecular structure of
the active substance, and which was then somehow transferred to the succussed water, must have been transmitted to the frogs
via a "radiant" effect, perhaps an illusive "biophoton." No evidence of such radiation has been reported. Benveniste, however,
now claims that a 50Hz magnetic field can erase the memory of his antibody solutions ( Benveniste 1993 ) , which might explain
why other researchers do not find a memory. This electromagnetic link led Benveniste to the further discovery that he can
"potentize" your water over a telephone line.

One possibility, according to Jonas, is that information does not pass from the solution to the frog -- or from a medication to a
human patient -- but the other way. The unhealthy state of the patient might be "released through the remedy." "Such
speculative theories," Jonas admits, "need further experimental work to confirm or disprove them."

The Case Against Butterflies

Jonas also speculates that chaos theory might offer insight into the effect of homeopathic remedies on the body's self-healing
mechanisms: One concept in chaos theory is that very small changes in a variable may cause a system to jump to a very
different pattern of activity, such as a small shift in wind direction drastically affecting climatic patterns of temperature and
precipitation. Under this way of thinking, the homeopathic remedy can be seen as a small variable that alters the symptom
pattern of an illness. ( Jonas and Jacobs 1996, 89 )

This dreadful shibboleth betrays a total misunderstanding of what chaos is about. "Chaos" refers to complex systems that are
so sensitive to initial conditions that it is not possible to predict how they will behave. Thus, while the flapping of a butterfly's
wings might conceivably trigger a hurricane, killing butterflies is unlikely to reduce the incidence of hurricanes. As for
homeopathic remedies that exceed the dilution limit, a better analogy might be to the flapping of a caterpillar's wings.

Psychic Healing

But if none of these mechanisms work, Jonas says, "highly speculative and imaginary [sic] explanations may be necessary."
What he has in mind is the placebo effect. "Belief in a therapy," Jonas explains, "may be an important factor in healing." Who
would disagree? If it is a placebo effect at work in homeopathy, all of the pseudoscientific trappings of similia similibus
curantur and the law of infinitesimals merely serve as props to deceive people into believing that sugar pills are medicine. But
"placebo effect," as used by Jonas and other proponents of alternative medicine, turns out to be the strangest beast of all. It is
suffused with the New Age notion of a universal consciousness. The placebo effect becomes psychic healing. Again from
Jonas: Some theorists suggest that intentionality and consciousness must be brought to any explanation of how nonlocal, and
nonspecific quantum potentials might be "collapsed" into so-called informational coherence patterns ( molecules ) , which then
have specific effects. Once these previously unstable and nonlocalizable coherence patterns ( such as thoughts and beliefs ) nudge
potential effects into existence ( by an intention to heal in the person or practitioner ) , they are then seen by the body as locally
acting, stable, "molecular" structures that produce specific biological signals and have predictable effects in the person. ( Jonas
and Jacobs 1996, 90 )

This all sounds very much like Deepak Chopra ( 1989 and 1993 ) , who asserts that: "Beliefs, thoughts, and emotions create the
chemical reactions that uphold life in every cell." The notion that by thought alone the medicines needed to cure illness can be
created within the body comes from Ayurveda, the traditional religious medicine of India that dates back thousands of years.
Chopra has, in any case, created vast personal wealth by simply invoking "quantum healing" in book after book. His books
reveal no hint that he has any concept of quantum mechanics.

Nevertheless, there are quantum mystics, including a few physicists, who interpret the wave function as some kind of vibration
of a holistic ether that pervades the universe. Wave function collapse, they believe, happens throughout the universe
instantaneously as a result of some cosmic consciousness. That, of course, would violate causality in the relativistic sense, and
it would also violate quantum field theory ( Eberhard and Ross 1989 ) .

Biofield Therapeutics ( Touch Therapy )

Alternative medicine consists of a wide spectrum of unrelated treatments ranging from the barely plausible to the totally
preposterous. At the preposterous end, I place those therapies that have no direct physical consequences of any sort, such as
homeopathy and psychic healing. One must also include "biofield therapeutics" or "touch therapy," though in fact it would be
more accurate to call it "no-touch therapy," since the practitioner's hands do not actually make contact with the patient.
Instead, it is claimed that the patient's "energy field," "qi," or "aura," is "smoothed" by the hands of the therapist or shifted
from one place to another to achieve balance. The energy field is said to extend several inches outside the body, and the
patient's field interacts with the field of the practitioner.

The nature of this supposed energy field is obscure, but proponents often link it in some way with relativity and the
equivalence of matter and energy. It has also been suggested that the body's energy field is electromagnetic. Quantum
mechanics, despite its popularity in many alternative medicine circles, rarely seems to be invoked in touch therapy. Indeed, B.
Brennan, author of Hands of Light ( 1987 ) , writes: "I am unable to explain these experiences without using the old classical
physics framework." I confess that classical physics does not make it any easier for me to explain. Practitioners claim to be
able to "feel" the energy field and often employ hand-held pendulums to locate the "chakras," or vortices, in the field that must
be smoothed out to promote healing. It would seem to be a simple matter to examine a field that can be felt tactually, or that
affects the motion of a pendulum, but so far no one has claimed to detect the energy field with any instrument that is not
hand-held. This is quite remarkable since there are said to be tens of thousands in the United States who have been trained in
some form of this therapy. In the United Kingdom there are 8,500 registered touch therapists ( Benor 1993 ) .

The public is spending billions of dollars annually on sugar pills to cure their sniffles, hand waving to speed recovery from
operations, and good thoughts to ward off illness, all with assurances that it's based on science. Society has been set up for this
fleecing in part by the media's sensationalized coverage of modern science. Popular discussions of relativity, quantum
mechanics, and chaos often leave people with the impression that common sense cannot be relied on -- anything is possible.
Scientists themselves often feed the public's appetite for the "weirdness" of modern science in an effort to stimulate interest --
or simply because scientists, too, can be beguiled by the mysterious.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:31 - ID#269409)
Since no one objected yesterday (except moi)
To Mozel's lengthy post of mind expansion on all things medical, I'm sure this will offend no one either;

hy Bogus Therapies Seem to Work

At least ten kinds of errors and biases can convince intelligent, honest people that cures have been achieved when they have not.

Barry L. Beyerstein

Nothing is more dangerous than active ignorance. -- Goethe

Those who sell therapies of any kind have an obligation to prove, first, that their
treatments are safe and, second, that they are effective. The latter is often the
more difficult task because there are many subtle ways that honest and intelligent
people ( both patients and therapists ) can be led to think that a treatment has cured
someone when it has not. This is true whether we are assessing new treatments in
scientific medicine, old nostrums in folk medicine, fringe treatments in
"alternative medicine," or the frankly magical panaceas of faith healers.

To distinguish causal from fortuitous improvements that might follow any
intervention, a set of objective procedures has evolved for testing putative
remedies. Unless a technique, ritual, drug, or surgical procedure can meet these
requirements, it is ethically questionable to offer it to the public, especially if
money is to change hands. Since most "alternative" therapies ( i.e., ones not
accepted by scientific biomedicine ) fall into this category, one must ask why so
many customers who would not purchase a toaster without consulting Consumer
Reports shell out, with trusting naivet, large sums for unproven, possibly
dangerous, health remedies.

For many years, critics have been raising telling doubts about fringe medical
practices, but the popularity of such nostrums seems undiminished. We must
wonder why entrepreneurs' claims in this area should remain so refractory to
contrary data. If an "alternative" or "complementary" therapy: implausible on a priori grounds ( because its implied mechanisms or putative effects contradict well-established laws,
principles, or empirical findings in physics, chemistry, or biology ) ,
b.lacks a scientifically acceptable rationale of its own,
c.has insufficient supporting evidence derived from adequately controlled outcome research ( i.e., double-blind,
randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials ) ,
d.has failed in well-controlled clinical studies done by impartial evaluators and has been unable to rule out competing
explanations for why it might seem to work in uncontrolled settings, and,
e.should seem improbable, even to the lay person, on "commonsense" grounds,

why would so many well-educated people continue to sell and purchase such a treatment?

The answer, I believe, lies in a combination of vigorous marketing of unsubstantiated claims by "alternative" healers
( Beyerstein and Sampson 1996 ) , the poor level of scientific knowledge in the public at large ( Kiernan 1995 ) , and the "will to
believe" so prevalent among seekers attracted to the New Age movement ( Basil 1988; Gross and Levitt 1994 ) .

The appeal of nonscientific medicine is largely a holdover from popular "counterculture" sentiments of the 1960s and 1970s.
Remnants of the rebellious, "back-to-nature" leanings of that era survive as nostalgic yearnings for a return to
nineteenth-century-style democratized health care ( now wrapped in the banner of patients' rights ) and a dislike of
bureaucratic, technologic, and specialized treatment of disease ( Cassileth and Brown 1988 ) . Likewise, the allure of the
"holistic" dogmas of alternative medicine is a descendant of the fascination with Eastern mysticism that emerged in the sixties
and seventies. Although the philosophy and the science that underlie these holistic teachings have been severely criticized
( Brandon 1985 ) , they retain a strong appeal for those committed to belief in "mind-over-matter" cures, a systemic rather than
localized view of pathology, and the all-powerful ability of nutrition to restore health ( conceived of as whole-body "balance" ) .

Many dubious health products remain on the market primarily because satisfied customers offer testimonials to their worth.
Essentially, they are saying, "I tried it and I got better, so it must be effective." But even when symptoms do improve
following a treatment, this, by itself, cannot prove that the therapy was responsible.

The Illness-Disease Distinction

Although the terms disease and illness are often used interchangeably, for present purposes it is worth distinguishing between
the two. I shall use disease to refer to a pathological state of the organism due to infection, tissue degeneration, trauma, toxic
exposure, carcinogenesis, etc. By illness I mean the feelings of malaise, pain, disorientation, dysfunctionality, or other
complaints that might accompany a disease. Our subjective reaction to the raw sensations we call symptoms is molded by
cultural and psychological factors such as beliefs, suggestions, expectations, demand characteristics, self-serving biases, and
self-deception. The experience of illness is also affected ( often unconsciously ) by a host of social and psychological payoffs
that accrue to those admitted to the "sick role" by society's gatekeepers ( i.e., health professionals ) . For certain individuals, the
privileged status and benefits of the sick role are sufficient to perpetuate the experience of illness after a disease has healed, or
even to create feelings of illness in the absence of disease ( Alcock 1986 ) .

Unless we can tease apart the many factors that contribute to the perception of being ill, personal testimonials offer no basis on
which to judge whether a putative therapy has, in fact, cured a disease. That is why controlled clinical trials with objective
physical measures are essential in evaluating therapies of any kind.

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Mistaking correlation for causation is the basis of most superstitious beliefs, including many in the area of alternative
medicine. We have a tendency to assume that when things occur together, they must be causally connected, although obviously
they need not be. For example, there is a high correlation between the consumption of diet soft drinks and obesity. Does this
mean that artificial sweeteners cause people to become overweight? When we count on personal experience to test the worth of
medical treatments, many factors are varying simultaneously, making it extremely difficult to determine what is cause and
effect. Personal endorsements supply the bulk of the support for unorthodox health products, but they are a weak currency
because of what Gilovich ( 1997 ) has called the "compared to what?" problem. Without comparison to a similar group of
sufferers, treated identically except that the allegedly curative element is withheld, individual recipients can never know
whether they would have recovered just as well without it.

Ten Errors and Biases

The question is, then: Why might therapists and their clients who rely on anecdotal evidence and uncontrolled observations
erroneously conclude that inert therapies work? There are at least ten good reasons.

1.The disease may have run its natural course.

Many diseases are self-limiting -- providing the condition is not chronic or fatal, the body's own recuperative processes
usually restore the sufferer to health. Thus, before a therapy can be acknowledged as curative, its proponents must
show that the number of patients listed as improved exceeds the proportion expected to recover without any treatment
at all ( or that they recover reliably faster than if left untreated ) . Unless an unconventional therapist releases detailed
records of successes and failures over a sufficiently large number of patients with the same complaint, he or she cannot
claim to have exceeded the published norms for unaided recovery.

2.Many diseases are cyclical.

Arthritis, multiple sclerosis, allergies, and gastrointestinal complaints are examples of diseases that normally "have
their ups and downs." Naturally, sufferers tend to seek therapy during the downturn of any given cycle. In this way, a
bogus treatment will have repeated opportunities to coincide with upturns that would have happened anyway. Again, in
the absence of appropriate control groups, consumers and vendors alike are prone to misinterpret improvement due to
normal cyclical variation as a valid therapeutic effect.

3.Spontaneous remission.

Anecdotally reported cures can be due to rare but possible "spontaneous remissions." Even with cancers that are nearly
always lethal, tumors occasionally disappear without further treatment. One experienced oncologist reports that he has
seen twelve such events in about six thousand cases he has treated ( Silverman 1987 ) . Alternative therapies can receive
unearned acclaim for remissions of this sort because many desperate patients turn to them when they feel that they have
nothing left to lose. When the "alternatives" assert that they have snatched many hopeless individuals from death's door,
they rarely reveal what percentage of their apparently terminal clientele such happy exceptions represent. What is
needed is statistical evidence that their "cure rates" exceed the known spontaneous remission rate and the placebo
response rate ( see below ) for the conditions they treat.

The exact mechanisms responsible for spontaneous remissions are not well understood, but much research is being
devoted to revealing and possibly harnessing processes in the immune system or elsewhere that are responsible for these
unexpected turnarounds. The relatively new field of psychoneuroimmunology studies how psychological variables
affect the nervous, glandular, and immune systems in ways that might affect susceptibility to and recovery from disease
( Ader and Cohen 1993; Mestel 1994 ) . If thoughts, emotions, desires, beliefs, etc., are physical states of the brain, there
is nothing inherently mystical in the notion that these neural processes could affect glandular, immune, and other
cellular processes throughout the body. Via the limbic system of the brain, the hypothalamic pituitary axis, and the
autonomic nervous system, psychological variables can have widespread physiological effects that can have positive or
negative impacts upon health. While research has confirmed that such effects exist, it must be remembered that they are
fairly small, accounting for perhaps a few percent of the variance in disease statistics.

4.The placebo effect.

A major reason why bogus remedies are credited with subjective, and occasionally objective, improvements is the
ubiquitous placebo effect ( Roberts, Kewman, and Hovell 1993; Ulett 1996 ) . The history of medicine is strewn with
examples of what, with hindsight, seem like crackpot procedures that were once enthusiastically endorsed by physicians
and patients alike ( Skrabanek and McCormick 1990; Barrett and Jarvis 1993 ) . Misattributions of this sort arise from
the false assumption that a change in symptoms following a treatment must have been a specific consequence of that
procedure. Through a combination of suggestion, belief, expectancy, cognitive reinterpretation, and diversion of
attention, patients given biologically useless treatments can often experience measurable relief. Some placebo responses
produce actual changes in the physical condition; others are subjective changes that make patients feel better although
there has been no objective change in the underlying pathology.

Through repeated contact with valid therapeutic procedures, we all develop, much like Pavlov's dogs, conditioned
responses in various physiological systems. Later, these responses can be triggered by the setting, rituals, paraphernalia,
and verbal cues that signal the act of "being treated." Among other things, placebos can cause release of the body's own
morphinelike pain killers, the endorphins ( Ulett 1996, ch. 3 ) . Because these learned responses can be palliative, even
when a treatment itself is physiologically unrelated to the source of the complaint, putative therapies must be tested
against a placebo control group -- similar patients who receive a sham treatment that resembles the "real" one except
that the suspected active ingredient is withheld.

It is essential that the patients in such tests be randomly assigned to their respective groups and that they be "blind" with
respect to their active versus placebo status. Because the power of what psychologists call expectancy and compliance
effects ( see below ) is so strong, the therapists must also be blind as to individual patients' group membership. Hence the
term double blind -- the gold standard of outcome research. Such precautions are required because barely perceptible
cues, unintentionally conveyed by treatment providers who are not blinded, can bias test results. Likewise, those who
assess the treatment's effects must also be blind, for there is a large literature on "experimenter bias" showing that
honest and well-trained professionals can unconsciously "read in" the outcomes they expect when they attempt to assess
complex phenomena ( Rosenthal 1966; Chapman and Chapman 1967 ) .

When the clinical trial is completed, the blinds can be broken to allow statistical comparison of active, placebo, and
no-treatment groups. Only if the improvements observed in the active treatment group exceed those in the two control
groups by a statistically significant amount can the therapy claim legitimacy.

5.Some allegedly cured symptoms are psychosomatic to begin with.

A constant difficulty in trying to measure therapeutic effectiveness is that many physical complaints can both arise from
psychosocial distress and be alleviated by support and reassurance. At first glance, these symptoms ( at various times
called "psychosomatic," "hysterical," or "neurasthenic" ) resemble those of recognized medical syndromes ( Shorter
1992; Merskey 1995 ) . Although there are many "secondary gains" ( psychological, social, and economic ) that accrue to
those who slip into "the sick role" in this way, we need not accuse them of conscious malingering to point out that their
symptoms are nonetheless maintained by subtle psychosocial processes.

"Alternative" healers cater to these members of the "worried well" who are mistakenly convinced that they are ill.
Their complaints are instances of somatization, the tendency to express psychological concerns in a language of
symptoms like those of organic diseases ( Alcock 1986; Shorter 1992 ) . The "alternatives" offer comfort to these
individuals who for psychological reasons need others to believe there are organic etiologies for their symptoms. Often
with the aid of pseudoscientific diagnostic devices, fringe practitioners reinforce the somatizer's conviction that the
cold-hearted, narrow-minded medical establishment, which can find nothing physically amiss, is both incompetent and
unfair in refusing to acknowledge a very real organic condition. A large portion of those diagnosed with "chronic
fatigue," "environmental sensitivity syndrome," and various stress disorders ( not to mention many suing because of the
allegedly harmful effects of silicone breast implants ) look very much like classic somatizers ( Stewart 1990; Huber
1991; Rosenbaum 1997 ) . When, through the role-governed rituals of "delivering treatment," fringe therapists supply
the reassurance, sense of belonging, and existential support their clients seek, this is obviously worthwhile, but all this
need not be foreign to scientific practitioners who have much more to offer besides. The downside is that catering to
the desire for medical diagnoses for psychological complaints promotes pseudoscientific and magical thinking while
unduly inflating the success rates of medical quacks. Saddest of all, it perpetuates the anachronistic feeling that there is
something shameful or illegitimate about psychological problems.

6.Symptomatic relief versus cure.

Short of an outright cure, alleviating pain and discomfort is what sick people value most. Many allegedly curative
treatments offered by alternative practitioners, while unable to affect the disease process itself, do make the illness
more bearable, but for psychological reasons. Pain is one example. Much research shows that pain is partly a sensation
like seeing or hearing and partly an emotion ( Melzack 1973 ) . It has been found repeatedly that successfully reducing
the emotional component of pain leaves the sensory portion surprisingly tolerable. Thus, suffering can often be reduced
by psychological means, even if the underlying pathology is untouched. Anything that can allay anxiety, redirect
attention, reduce arousal, foster a sense of control, or lead to cognitive reinterpretation of symptoms can alleviate the
agony component of pain. Modern pain clinics put these strategies to good use every day ( Smith, Merskey, and Gross
1980 ) . Whenever patients suffer less, this is all to the good, but we must be careful that purely symptomatic relief does
not divert people from proven remedies until it is too late for them to be effective.

7.Many consumers of alternative therapies hedge their bets.

In an attempt to appeal to a wider clientele, many unorthodox healers have begun to refer to themselves as
"complementary" rather than "alternative." Instead of ministering primarily to the ideologically committed or those
who have been told there is nothing more that conventional medicine can do for them, the "alternatives" have begun to
advertise that they can enhance conventional biomedical treatments. They accept that orthodox practitioners can
alleviate specific symptoms but contend that alternative medicine treats the real causes of disease -- dubious dietary
imbalances or environmental sensitivities, disrupted energy fields, or even unresolved conflicts from previous
incarnations. If improvement follows the combined delivery of "complementary" and scientifically based treatments,
the fringe practice often gets a disproportionate share of the credit.

8.Misdiagnosis ( by self or by a physician ) .

In this era of media obsession with health, many people can be induced to think they have diseases they do not have.
When these healthy folk receive the oddly unwelcome news from orthodox physicians that they have no organic signs
of disease, they often gravitate to alternative practitioners who can almost always find some kind of "imbalance" to
treat. If "recovery" follows, another convert is born.

Of course, scientifically trained physicians are not infallible, and a mistaken diagnosis, followed by a trip to a shrine or
an alternative healer, can lead to a glowing testimonial for curing a grave condition that never existed. Other times, the
diagnosis may be correct but the time course, which is inherently hard to predict, might prove inaccurate. If a patient
with a terminal condition undergoes alternative treatments and succumbs later than the conventional doctor predicted,
the alternative procedure may receive credit for prolonging life when, in fact, there was merely an unduly pessimistic
prognosis -- survival was longer than the expected norm, but within the range of normal statistical variation for the

9.Derivative benefits.

Alternative healers often have forceful, charismatic personalities ( O'Connor 1987 ) . To the extent that patients are swept
up by the messianic aspects of alternative medicine, psychological uplift may ensue. If an enthusiastic, upbeat healer
manages to elevate the patient's mood and expectations, this optimism can lead to greater compliance with, and hence
effectiveness of, any orthodox treatments he or she may also be receiving. This expectant attitude can also motivate
people to eat and sleep better and to exercise and socialize more. These, by themselves, could help speed natural

Psychological spinoffs of this sort can also reduce stress, which has been shown to have deleterious effects on the
immune system ( Mestel 1994 ) . Removing this added burden may speed healing, even if it is not a specific effect of the
therapy. As with purely symptomatic relief, this is far from a bad thing, unless it diverts the patient from more
effective treatments, or the charges are exorbitant.

10.Psychological distortion of reality.

Distortion of reality in the service of strong belief is a common occurrence ( Alcock 1995 ) . Even when they derive no
objective improvements, devotees who have a strong psychological investment in alternative medicine can convince
themselves they have been helped. According to cognitive dissonance theory ( Festinger 1957 ) , when experiences
contradict existing attitudes, feelings, or knowledge, mental distress is produced. We tend to alleviate this discord by
reinterpreting ( distorting ) the offending information. To have received no relief after committing time, money, and
"face" to an alternate course of treatment ( and perhaps to the worldview of which it is a part ) would create such a state
of internal disharmony. Because it would be too psychologically disconcerting to admit to oneself or to others that it
has all been a waste, there would be strong psychological pressure to find some redeeming value in the treatment.

Many other self-serving biases help maintain self-esteem and smooth social functioning ( Beyerstein and Hadaway 1991 ) .
Because core beliefs tend to be vigorously defended by warping perception and memory, fringe practitioners and their
clients are prone to misinterpret cues and remember things as they wish they had happened. Similarly, they may be
selective in what they recall, overestimating their apparent successes while ignoring, downplaying, or explaining away
their failures. The scientific method evolved in large part to reduce the impact of this human penchant for jumping to
congenial conclusions.

An illusory feeling that one's symptoms have improved could also be due to a number of so called demand
characteristics found in any therapeutic setting. In all societies, there exists the "norm of reciprocity," an implicit rule
that obliges people to respond in kind when someone does them a good turn. Therapists, for the most part, sincerely
believe they are helping their patients and it is only natural that patients would want to please them in return. Without
patients necessarily realizing it, such obligations are sufficient to inflate their perception of how much benefit they have
received. Thus, controls for compliance effects must also be built into proper clinical trials ( Adair 1973 ) .

Finally, the job of distinguishing real from spurious causal relationships requires not only controlled observations, but
also systematized abstractions from large bodies of data. Psychologists interested in judgmental biases have identified
many sources of error that plague people who rely on informal reasoning processes to analyze complex events
( Gilovich 1991, 1997; Schick and Vaughn 1995 ) . Dean and colleagues ( 1992 ) showed, using examples from another
popular pseudoscience, handwriting analysis, that without sophisticated statistical aids, human cognitive abilities are
simply not up to the task of sifting valid relationships out of masses of interacting data. Similar difficulties would have
confronted the pioneers of pre-scientific medicine and their followers, and for that reason, we cannot accept their
anecdotal reports as support for their assertions.


For the reasons I have presented, individual testimonials count for very little in evaluating therapies. Because so many false
leads can convince intelligent, honest people that cures have been achieved when they have not, it is essential that any putative
treatment be tested under conditions that control for placebo responses, compliance effects, and judgmental errors.

Before anyone agrees to undergo any kind of treatment, he or she should be confident that it has been validated in properly
controlled clinical trials. To reduce the probability that supporting evidence has been contaminated by the foregoing biases and
errors, consumers should insist that supporting evidence be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Any practitioner
who cannot supply this kind of backing for his or her procedures is immediately suspect. Potential clients should be wary if,
instead, the "evidence" consists merely of testimonials, self-published pamphlets or books, or items from the popular media.
Even if supporting articles appear to have come from legitimate scientific periodicals, consumers should check to see that the
journals in question are published by reputable scientific organizations. Papers extolling pseudoscience often appear in
official-looking periodicals that turn out to be owned by groups with inadequate scientific credentials but with a financial stake
in the questionable products. Similarly, one should discount articles from the "vanity press" -- journals that accept virtually all
submissions and charge the authors for publication. And finally, because any single positive outcome -- even from a carefully
done experiment published in a reputable journal -- could always be a fluke, replication by independent research groups is the
ultimate standard of proof.

If the practitioner claims persecution, is ignorant of or openly hostile to mainstream science, cannot supply a reasonable
scientific rationale for his or her methods, and promises results that go well beyond those claimed by orthodox biomedicine,
there is strong reason to suspect that one is dealing with a quack. Appeals to other ways of knowing or mysterious sounding
"planes," "energies," "forces," or "vibrations" are other telltale signs, as is any claim to treat the whole person rather than
localized pathology.

To people who are unwell, any promise of a cure is especially beguiling. As a result, false hope easily supplants common
sense. In this vulnerable state, the need for hard-nosed appraisal is all the more necessary, but so often we see instead an
eagerness to abandon any remaining vestiges of skepticism. Erstwhile savvy consumers, felled by disease, often insist upon less
evidence to support the claims of alternative healers than they would previously have demanded from someone hawking a used
car. Caveat emptor!


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Gilovich, T. 1991. How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life. New York: Free
-- -- -- . 1997. Some systematic biases of everyday judgment. Skeptical Inquirer 21 ( 2 ) : 31-5.
Gross, P., and N. Levitt. 1994. Higher Superstition. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Huber, P. 1991. Galileo's Revenge: Junk Science in the Courtroom. New York: Basic Books.
Kiernan, V. 1995. Survey plumbs the depths of international ignorance. The New Scientist ( April 29 ) : 7.
Merskey, H. 1995. The Analysis of Hysteria: Understanding Conversion and Dissociation. 2d ed. London: Royal
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Melzack, R. 1973. The Puzzle of Pain. New York: Basic Books.
Mestel, R. 1994. Let mind talk unto body. The New Scientist ( July 23 ) : 26-31.
O'Connor, G. 1987. Confidence trick. The Medical Journal of Australia 147: 456-9.
Roberts, A., D. Kewman, and L. Hovell. 1993. The power of nonspecific effects in healing: Implications for
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276 ( June 6, 1997 ) : 1524-5.
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Stewart, D. 1990. Emotional disorders misdiagnosed as physical illness: Environmental hypersensitivity, candidiasis
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(Fri May 08 1998 11:31 - ID#427357)
Y2K Complacency Is About to End

The last couple of days at this august forum have witnessed growing concern about the looming Y2K problem and its grim ramifications to business and investments. However, participants and lurkers at Kitco are indeed an esoteric and privileged group - as we are literally at the cutting-edge of not only was is happening in the world at this very moment, but also what is looming on the horizon.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of the world's citizens are totally ignorant what may well transpire on the Eve of Reckoning, 31 December 1999. In fact many of still never heard of it. This amazes me, since Citibank has already publicly stated it has set aside $600,000,000 to analyze and hopefully protect its deposit base before the Eve of Reckoning. YES, I said $600 MILLION! It's a hellava GORILLA OUT THERE if the largest international bank in the world needs to spend that much money to avoid a

Rick Ackerman, nationally syndicated business journalist and oft TV inter-viewee - has written an insightful essay called " Y2K Complacency Is About to End." He asserts, "As the threat of a global computer meltdown in the new millennium bears down on us, one should expect to see growing signs of nervousness in corporate board rooms and on Wall Street."

Mr. Ackerman points out, while the Y2K problem will be a bane to world business, it will be a windfall boon to case hungry LAYWERS - for the confusion and loses to be suffered by those corporations and individuals will be the objective of many a law-suits. The monetary settlements of Breast-Implants and Smoking class-action lawsuits will pale by comparison.

Mr. Ackerman's incisive report may be read at the following website. As usual it will be necessary to delete the space in front of the word "-eagle" in the URL, before posting it to your Internet locator:

(Fri May 08 1998 11:34 - ID#335190)
Derivatives Debacles @ Scientfic American May 1998 issue
"Panel, today we will explore the mystique, allure and consequences of Derivatives...But first, let's ask ourselves "what exactly is a derivative?" Panelist number one...would you care to elaborate? "
**Cartoon Humour, all have bags over their heads.

Emanuel Derman, head of thr quantitive strategies group at Goldman Sachs, is a physicist. A native of Cape Town, South Africa. 13 years, has tackled the imperfections of the Black-Scholes equation. The Black-Scholes equation was to finance what Newtonian mechanics was to physics, Derman asserts.

Derman Finance differs from physics in that no mathematical model can capture the multitude of ever mutating economic factors that cause major market perturbations -- the recent Asian collapse, for instance. " In physics, you're playing against God; in finance, you're playing against people"

Financial Hydrogen Bombs
The image of derivatives has been sullied by much publicized financial debacles, which include the bankruptcies of Barings Bank and Orange County, California, and huge losses by Procter & Gamble and Gibson Greetings. Investment banker Felix Rohatyn has been quoted as warning about the perils of twentysomething computer whizzes concocting "financial hydrogen bombs"

Problems related to "modeling" have accounted for about 20 percent of the $23.77 billion in derivatives losses that have occurred during the past decade, according to Capital Market Risk Advisors. Last year, however, "model" risk comprised nearly 40 percent of the @2.65 billion in money lost. The tally for 1997 included National Westminster Bank, with $123 million in losses, and Union Bank of Switzerland with a $240 million hit.

The creators of these newfangled instruments place the losses in broader perspective. The notional, or face, value of all stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets on which options, futures, forwards and swap contracts are derived totaled $56 TRILLION IN 1995, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

known derivatives losses between 1987 and 1997 totaled only $23.8 billion. More mundane investments can also hurt investors. When interest rates shot up in 1994, the treasury bond markets lost $230 billion.

Mark E. Rubinstein of the University of California at Berkely has shown that traders own rules of thumb about inferring future stock index volatility did better than many of the major "modeling" methods.

FWIW..........Take Care

(Fri May 08 1998 11:44 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Silverfox -- Re: speculators; Should I not put my days profits from my gold futures sale of today back into the market, I made enough to buy a couple coins, which I've been contemplating doing. Not wanting to buy numismatics this go around, I'm looking for not only low price, but more indication that this low might actually be in before that particular purchase takes place.

(Fri May 08 1998 11:52 - ID#269409)
@ Eldorado
Consider a diversification into Platinum Eagles... beautiful coins and I think RJ's right about better potential than Gold

(Fri May 08 1998 11:53 - ID#347235)
RJ, Squirrel,General
RJ I stand corrected,sorry.

Squirrel, Dont worry so much there are plenty who will ride to the sound of the bugle.

General, Are you by chance Roy Thurman, I used to work for him. If so or
If not contact me offline

(Fri May 08 1998 11:58 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- Those too are being contemplated. Just hate all that premium on them! About 2.5 time that of the gold! Ridiculous!

(Fri May 08 1998 12:02 - ID#31868)
Junk Bag of silver dimes
best metal buy on the planet at this time in history.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:04 - ID#26793)
@Cheesehead: Vengold, Lihir News

(Fri May 08 1998 12:07 - ID#208393)
I detest that purple! It looks like we have had our "bounce" and now its back to the purple by day's end.

Are Canadian mutuals allowed short trades? Is their ANY tool available to them to allow them to profit from a falling market?

(Fri May 08 1998 12:09 - ID#266105)
@transactional analysis


I went to a bookstore and asked the saleswoman where the Self Help section was, she said if she told me it would defeat the purpose.


I'm ok, you're just alright. My favorite from the self help
genre was Primal Scream. One look at the back cover was all
it took. In that vein, LGB...

(Fri May 08 1998 12:13 - ID#31868)
2BRO2B - my favorite form of analysis. One tequila,
two tequila, three tequila, floor...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:16 - ID#384350)
JDisney, Gold Watches
I was looking at watches last autumn. Solid 18k gold Swiss watches were around $8000 retail. The same watch with just Gold trim was around $2200.

Maybe that shows the true price of gold is currently $1000 an ounce.

I have trouble seeing 100 years ago, that big of a difference in price between an ordinary quality watch and quality gold watch. I think it must be related to the interest on carrying inventory. The pressures usury and fractional reserve banking put on rents, office space, and housing.

BTW, did anyone see that article, portraying housing as being more affordable even as the price skyrockets, all because mortgage rates are lower. What a spin!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:17 - ID#384350)
Sharefin: New World Money
Sharefin: The US dollar deserves 3rd world status. I however would feel sorry for those current Banana Republics whose currencies, like the Eastern Carribean Dollar, are tied to the USD.

As to the Euro, add the Germans to the list who don't want it.

Helmut Kohl in Diktat fashion said last year words to this effect: You peasants don't have a voice in a representative democracy. We decide for you.

In France, Chirac who refused to give the French people a referendum, because he knew it wouldn't fly told his peasants: You won't have a referendum. The Gaullist party is for the Euro. The upcoming elections will be like a referendum. Then about a week later, Socialist opposition leader, Lionel Jospin said his party was also in favour of the Euro.

Chirac's party was humiliated as socialists swept the elections. Chirac's Prime Minister resigned, and Jospin became the new Prime Mininster. No surprise, Chirac lied: Plans for the Euro went full steam ahead. No referendum, just so-called democracy.

If you forget, the first things supposedly conservative Chirac did when elected was increase the national sales Tax 11%, increase the minimum wage twice as much as expected, and blew up atomic bombs in the Pacific.

No wonder the National Front is gaining popularity in France, as they are they opt to keep France's sovereignty as an independent nation.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:17 - ID#384350)
Draining Reserves
Can someone please explain in layman's terms, what is involved in the process of draining reserves by the Fed, and what its effects and/or implications are?

(Fri May 08 1998 12:26 - ID#347235)
Leaaky gum boots
You are getting as verbose as mozel, stick to what you know, copy and past is getting to be a habit here, no one of us is that good on medical matters. Except maybe John Meissner who posts regularly on Kitco 2 and thinks he is an expert on EVERTHING. Doesnt post medical info though so he may just be blowing smoke. Easy to get over your head on this.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:27 - ID#390415)





As of





+1.73 2.09%

(Fri May 08 1998 12:27 - ID#266105)
t1-- 1.544mps in a 33 1/3 rpm world

In that case, hold the floor--


Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 12:30 - ID#212323)
Tol-cool-One... My trial application of the Jell-O sea anchor...
has become an unmitigated disaster! Fish have become lodged upon all sides, rather like birds flying into windows! The shame and embarassment it brings me...about to sever the rope and disavow any involvement in its origins. The horror, the horror...

Did you see my gold tale yesterday at 19:09 ( I believe? ) ? What say you and I show up at the doors of the BIS. I'm sure they would offer fine hospitality to us weary travelers, especially in view of our heavy loads.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:32 - ID#24135)
Hole In Rubber
For Leaky Nasty
You continue to be a waste of space..
But you ARE consistent .. no brain..
no taste .. no style.. crawl away please..
you really have nothing to say.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:32 - ID#238295)
traders versus investors
Silverfox; Glad someone here agrees with me. Powerful gold bull is indeed out of the querstion until we start to get more long-term investors as opposed to in and out traders. This applies to both bullion and the gold stocks. But once investors charge in, the sky is the limit.

What gold does when the Dow tanks for real depends on why the Dow plunges and how far gold and gold stocks have risen by then. If gold goes to $350 and the Dow plunges because AG starts to tighten aggressively --then gold will indeed tank along with the Dow. But if gold is just $320 and the Dow gets smashed because of year 2000, a derivatives meltdown, or major mideast war -- then gold probably will skyrocket as the Dow crumbles. Positions set in stone on this question could prove very costly.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:32 - ID#210235)
@Aragorn III
He told you not to use grape!

(Fri May 08 1998 12:32 - ID#401237)


I should be buying SLE ( Cheesecake ) but I am HOOKED on Gold.


PS: DOW @ +113.60

(Fri May 08 1998 12:33 - ID#431263)
Once again VENGOLD has increased its stake in one of the premier golden elephants in the world, the LIHIR mine in Papua, New Guinea. If all goes according to plan, and so far it has, VENGOLD will come out of these most recent transactions owning 120,000,000 shares of Lihir's ( 942,000,000 shares ) or 12.8%! As your post indicates LIHIR will INCREASE its ANNUAL PRODUCTION by nearly 100,000 ounces per year beginning in 1999 to 775,000 ounces per year at a cash cost of $155/oz. before dep/amort! Bottom line, VENGOLD gets a little over 1/8 of LIHIR'S ANNUAL PRODUCTION or almost 100,000 ounces of gold per year to its bottom line beginning in 1999! AND, VENGOLD still has @ $22.5 million US with which to increase shareholder value even further! With 143,000,000 VENGOLD shares now outstanding, each share of VENGOLD is virtually the equivalent of each share of LIHIR PLUS its exploration properties in Venezuela near Las Cristinas and K88 in Kalimantan, Indonesia near FCX's huge deposit! With a 12,8% stake in LIHIR and with PDG'S 16.5% stake in VENGOLD, VENGOLD appears well on its way to acquiring a majority stake in the now EXPANDED LIHIR mine and its massive 42.6 million ounce proven and probable reserve and many millions more ounces of gold yet to be assayed on the island! At its current price of $1.18 US, VENGF is currently trading at a 24% discount to Lihir! CAN ANYONE SPELL UNDERVALUED BARGAIN OPPORTUNITY!

(Fri May 08 1998 12:34 - ID#32078)
doctors orders

As much as I appreciate your attempt to make sure no one here gets ripped off by crooked homoepaths, your mind appears to be as tightly clamped shut on this subject as those financiers who think gold is a barbaric relic.

In my case I tried a herbal drink seven years ago and it stops many minor ailments in this old body. Within two days, I noticed several beneficial effects not even promoted by the person selling the snake oil ( that's what my son called it because he wouldn't even try it ) .

Being a relatively logical and objective guy, I have gone off of the drink for two weeks several times to see what would happen and each time felt much better after drinking it again. I am satisfied spending about $30/mo and not getting sick.

If I were dieing from cancer and had participated in the doctor's remedy of near death chemotherapy, I would be willing to try just about anything instead of going home to die as my doctor suggests. It's obvious to me that the medical industry has many shortcomings. The last time I saw a doctor for a minor problem, it cost me $300 and I felt ripped off because he didn't help a bit. Aspirin kills more people than vitamins each year.

Me thinks you protest too much.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:38 - ID#24135)
Golden Elephant or White Elephant
For the golden CheeseCAKE
Lotsa paper .. cheesecake .. can you
spell That.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:40 - ID#288399)
Sharefin et. al/y2K Strategies
My husband & I just bought a remote, rural home ( from which he can, luckily, commute ) for cash. We should move in soon. Right now, we are trying to decide, in light of Y2K, what to do with our present home, which we live in and also own outright. IF all bank, stock, etc., records are going to be dreck, wouldn't it be better to own "hard" assets like real estate ( in addition to precious metals, of course ) ? SHould we rent out the house we're in now until after Y2K? Isn't a house a less value better than a piece of paper? Any ideas, anyone?

Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 12:41 - ID#212323)
Prometheus...that was the problem!
I used lime instead, so as NOT to attract the penguins. Apparently the fish cannot easily discern the subtle difference between sea-green water and lime-green Jell-O.

...killer whales have made an appearance... the scene has become some sort of perverse salty stomach turns and empties... oh, the humanity...

(Fri May 08 1998 12:44 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - take heed of what Prometheus says. Did you use grape flavor, and
it is very important, was this a fresh water test or salt. The BIS would be more than happy to relieve us of our gold. I suggest a short period of dry dock and re-tooling the keel and for the keel and platinum for the rudder.

In the days ahead that one day bicycle ride to friendly farms with burial vaults will be far safer than any vault controlled by the BIS.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:46 - ID#431263)
As Herr Einstein once said, "There ain't no hitchin' post in the universe!" It's all RELATIVE, mein Dizziness!

(Fri May 08 1998 12:49 - ID#31868)
Shlomo - FWIW - sell the urban dwelling as quickly as possible. With the
proceeds purchase bags of junk silver ( dimes ) gold, and keep a measured amount in cash in 1, 5, 10 dollar form. Look into a generator and other specific needs on a 1 month, three month, six month as suits the situation needs.

The above site is well thought out and should provide you with much information you seek.


(Fri May 08 1998 12:50 - ID#194311)
Moving on after the big one....?
New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso says the exchange has run out of room at its Wall Street home and a move is in order. He says his first choice would be to build a new complex in Battery Park City in Manhattan. But he adds the Big Board is weighing an offer to move to Jersey City, because New Jersey officials have offered to build a $1
billion trading floor.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:50 - ID#24135)
OH How Sweet
To All
Harmony DOWN and DBN DEEPS UP 5 %.
And Me with NO HARMONY and a stack
of Deeps preferred to convert end
may.. I must Enjoy it while it lasts ..
which may not be long .
but Im half cash so I dont care how
this cookie goes .. so far I think
all it did was close a little gap.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:51 - ID#32078)
@larryn__A (doctors orders) ID#32078: Can you give us more..
..specifics about the herbal drink which you take ?

Thanks in advance.

Alberich the Dwarf

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:52 - ID#24135)
I always defer..
to Einstein ,

Your cheesiness.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:53 - ID#243166)
Last Chance
We're seeing the last Dow sucker rally. Get in if you are. Get out if you're not. It'll be lucky to close up on the day.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 12:53 - ID#212323)
Tol-cool-One I am vexed by your advice because...
the catamaran has no keel. Hmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Fri May 08 1998 12:54 - ID#25171)
@ Gianni Dioro
National Front voters in FRANCE are certainly more concerned with sovereignty than the average french citizen who was led to believe that the idea of nation is the hideous remnant of fascism.

However, the reason behind the popularity of the National Front is mostly social and economical.

France as much or even more than any other country is an open country where multiple people from different origins and cultures mixed over centuries of invasions.

The invasion that french people are witnessing now is different.Hundreds of thousands of hatefull people enter FRANCE illegally each year with the blessing of a mostly socialist administration. They claim social benefits to the extent that the system is collapsing, they violently protest when FRANCE go to war in the gulf, they riot in suburbs , burn thousands of cars each year, raid supermarkets, organize drug dealing and get social housing when 6 million french or legal aliens are without a job or living at poverty level.

The introduction of the EURO will create massive unemployment in FRANCE which has the least competitive job market in EUROPE.

No doubt the National Front might size the power in the next 10 years.

(Fri May 08 1998 12:54 - ID#194311)
Yuan, yen, pound heading south
BEIJING, May 8 ( AFP ) - China's central bank distanced itself
Friday from a conference paper hinting the yuan could be devalued
this year, but convictions are growing a gentle devaluation may be
in the works, analysts said.
The report caused a controversy, as it provided the first
indication the central bank itself may be weighing the effects of a
devaluation, despite repeated vows by top Chinese leaders to keep
the yuan stable.
The Chinese central banker listed as the co-author of the paper
delivered this week at an Australia National University Conference
told AFP that only half of its contents were his.
"Fifty percent of the paper were my results, the other half were
his ( the co-author's ) results. I never said there is a possibility
of devaluation," said Yi Gang, deputy secretary general of the
monetary policy committee of the People's Bank Of China.
"I didn't authorize the author to use my name. He used some of
my results, but he had no authorization to use my name," Yi added.
The man listed as co-author, Song Ligang of the Australian
National University, said in Sydney he incorporated research done by
Yi, but had understood the work was not for public release without
the author's permission, which he had not given.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 12:55 - ID#24135)
Vodka is not building me up.
Larryn ..
I only THINK its building me up
when I drink it .. Please what is
that potion???

(Fri May 08 1998 12:59 - ID#333127)
I sold my plat stk about 3 wks ago, not at the high but a good profit, and have been looking to get back in. I've changed my mind and now think gold is much less of a risk, you never know when the Russians will announce they have more plat and pall. The money I planned to use will go to gold or sil. stk purchases, I like the action of the last few days, no panic selling.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:01 - ID#289357)

Sorry - couldn't make your last link work.

On the subject of rations, I got a flyer in the snail mail today from Don McAlvany ( who also writes a newsletter ) advertising food provision plans.

Premium System / 1 year for 1 person / 1868 calories per day $2513
Supreme System / 1 year for 1 person / 2378 calories per day $1857
Deluxe System / 6 months for 1 person / 2304 calories per day / $994

Looks like a very good selection of foods, with no cooking required, or ready to eat. No white sugar, MSG, artificial preservatives, colors, no refrigeration required, 15 year shelf life. Just thought some out there might be interested.
call 1-800-525-9556

(Fri May 08 1998 13:03 - ID#434158)
Schlomo and Y2K
Many of the people on this forum seem to know exactly what to invest in, and how long to hold it, and when to sell. I'm afraid I am not that smart. I don't believe in putting all my eggs in one basket. But, over time, I do quite well, thanks. Since beginning to study Y2K last December I have developed a position in precious metals, about 5% of total assets, and doubled that in related mining stocks. I have about 20% cash, 20% bonds, 30% stocks and the balance in real estate and a small business. The business, the real estate, and my house are for sale: we are building on a small farm. I will selectively reduce the stocks, and prepare to buy back in after Y2K. I don't know whether gold will go down with the DOW, or whether it will rise, or when mining stocks will out-perform the metal itself. I do know to invest in what is undervalued, and sell what is overvalued. I have precious metals as catastrophe insurance, and stocks as "prosperity insurance", with a fair chunk of cash prepared to go either way.

Regarding your house, I don't know what to tell you, but I have some ideas about what questions to ask. Would it be more or less valuable after a crash? How would it be of value to YOU? Do you want to continue to live in a rural setting the rest of your days, or might you or other family return to it? Can you let it sit for several years, or do you need to get the value out of it to invest in other things? What I leave in stocks, for example, I don't expect to touch for five to ten years, so I invest in the largest and strongest companies which should survive even Y2K in some form. If it hits ( and I expect it to do so ) I am covered: if it is overexaggerated, I am still covered. If I were smarter, I might be richer: but not, I suspect, safer. Hope this helps. Best of luck. GungaDin

(Fri May 08 1998 13:03 - ID#269409)
@ Dizzy...
Re your 12:38...While I suppose I should be flattered by your intensely obsessive, and desperate attempts to get my attention...what with you posting some 25 or 30 "insult" posts and comments in a couple days directed my way.....

May I just suggest that if you couched your insults into the context of some kind of subject matter, as I try and do, rather than simple schoolyard, ad hominum, anal retentive, name calling, it would be a lot more interesting, yes?

At first I found your contant stream of inslut posts amusing, if not very creative...however, now I simply yawn or pass over them , since they have no other content associated with them..I can imagine how bored everyone else has become with the ceaseless, compulsive diatribe.

So, my suggestion is...leave the comedy to minds that are more creative than yours, and try going back to your SA mining share comments...a subject you at least know something about. And try to get over my taking a leak on your crud encrusted gummy boots will ya? ..this obsessive compulsive behaviour on your part, surely warrants therapy my "King of the mindless inslut post" friend.

Now, in deference to the forum, and since I'm already trying Bart's patience with the medical debate posts..... I'll waste no further words on your silly insult posts. Carry on with your Mining share stuff dude.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:03 - ID#390415)
Thanks for your interesting post. I love clean, clear, interesting, and effective reasoning ( see "Bill Buckley ) . Yet I have some points:

( 1 ) Resorting to ridicule can be a symptom of a subtle but irritating and perhaps nagging insecurity about the soundness of one's own position, or a frustration over the inability to clearly and finally rebut the opposing position with fair play. It invariably diminishes an argument, IMO.

( 2 ) If something works, it works, whether or not we understand how. I know of noone who understands gravity ( or the strong nuclear force ) , but most serious scientists accept both ( some explanations have been proffered ) .

I am no fan of homeopathy. But we cannot rebut it with ridicule or with our own inability to conceive of a mechanism for it.

We can say, There is no indication that it really works.

My biggest problem with the skeptic ( not that you are one exactly ) is the arrogance that does not allow for the existence of dynamics totally foreign to the skeptic's understanding. That is a difference, IMO, between the skeptic and the cautious, humble reasoner. The one instinctively rejects what he cannot fathom, as if to do otherwise were an admission that he is limited by his nature from understanding all things; the other allows for what may be while embracing what is.

If you would allow me, the one wishes he could devour the entire tree of knowledge, while the other knows he cannot, and is satisfied with the fruit of the other tree.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:04 - ID#31868)
I can full well comprehend the sense of disturbing emotions over coming you. Being vexed can lead to nausea, sweaty palms and compact disc destruction. Hmmmmmmmmm. Cut the rope.

I will have to think on both the need for a new sea anchor and the most troubling catamaran equation.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:06 - ID#288399)
Tolerant1/Y2K/storage of junk silver, gold, etc.
Is a safe a good place to store this silver, etc., if it is heavy enough so it can't be moved easily? Where can one buy a safe? How does one bury silver & gold? Does anyone know the best way to store gasoline on a private property ( for generator, etc. ) ? My husband thinks I'm nuts about this Y2K thing, but, if one is prepared, what's the downside? Nothing except a little inconvenience. It's all risk/reward to me.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:07 - ID#269191)
Fed draining reserves answer.
If the question hasn't already been answered, the Fed controls the
level of reserves in the banking system primarily through its
open market operations: the buying and selling of U.S. Treasury
securities in the open market. The Fed drains reserves by selling
securites from its portfolio and adds reserves by buying for its
portfolio. When the Fed sells securites its trading desk at the
N.Y. Fed sells securites to dealers who pay for them by giving the
Fed their check. This depletes the money the dealers have on deposit
in the bank and since the banks are required to deposit a certain
percentage of their deposits with the Fed ( reserves ) this draws down
the amount of reserves. The reverse process is true when the Fed
buys securites. This is important because banks make loans from
their deposits and the more deposits the greater their capacity
to expand credit by making loans. Since most of the money in the
U.S. is checkbook money, the greater the volume of loans, the more
rapidly the money supply expands. Hope this helps.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:12 - ID#31868)
Shlomo - in this rural house is there a basement? It would be eash to hide a
tremendous amount of silver and gold there. As to the storage of gas and or water go to a few of the places, hardware stores and such in the rural area and ask questions. Many rural folks have aux. tanks for fuel ( farm ) and fresh water.

One of the single best methods to keep metal secure in your home or on your property is to , shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, be very, very quiet. In addition you can purchase PVC pipe and fill it with gold and silver and make it look like part of the plumbing, real easy.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:15 - ID#392358)
LGB, I second the notion and add...
Hello LGB:
Your post on the sillyfallacies ( philosophies ) of neomedicine VS scientific scrutiny was excellent. While I do not discourage anyone from a treatment path that works,
I find that I can no longer trust all adherents to the present version of modern medice. Unfortunatly politics and association pressures play a role in determining "scientific" results. It took medical profesionals 100 years to be
convinced about clenliness in surgury. Many cancer treatments are destructive and recomended without givng information on other treatments. Information is critical.
Many methods that work for yet unkown reasons are not recomended because
we don't yet understand them. As though our understanding is the "approval method".
It is very difficult to be an informed medical consumer as it is, and now we
have dirrectives from "plans" to give us further misinformation.
Medicine and politics don not mix.
I mean no offense to doctors, most are doing the best they can with what they have or are given. It is amatter of where to put trust in infomation. Very tricky.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:15 - ID#347235)
@ Shlomo
Best safe to buy is the heaviest gun safe you can find, any gun shop will have them, Browning makes one that weighs about a thousand pounds, and too large to move easily, you can also drill holes in the bottom and mount it to the floor with lag bolts, believe me it wont go anywhere!!! Shalom

(Fri May 08 1998 13:16 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron -
check your mail -

(Fri May 08 1998 13:16 - ID#434158)
LGB True Believer
LGB I am enjoying the thrust of your posts, although skipping over some of the more lengthy content. Have you ever encountered "the Amazing Randi," James Randi, former magician and de-bunker of Charlatans, Knaves, and the Soviet Military Parapsychology drivel? Seems to me it is particularly difficult to discourage a "true believer," whether the subject be medical tomfoolery or the religion of Goldbuggery. You seem to have significant opponents on both issues. The quality of one's arguments is usually in inverse proportion to the number and length of personal attacks by one's opponents. Hang in there. GungaDin

(Fri May 08 1998 13:18 - ID#31868)
on that last link - for all - try this, and or type it in your browser -

(Fri May 08 1998 13:18 - ID#269409)
@ Night Rider
Points well taken. Personally, I appreciate some sarcastic humor in making a point, however, I do understand that on a forum like this, comments can easily be interpreted as being more malicious than intended.
I do get carried away advocating a point now and then, if it's an area where the belief is strong.

But if you look at my previous post, I try and make a distinction between mindless insults with no other purpose ( which seems to be the forte of some ) as oppsoed to strongly worded advocacy of a point of view.

When it comes to persuasion, my own opinion is that those who hold a "CB" ( cherished belief ) that some bogus therapy or another helped them, or a relative, etc..... would never change that belief no matter what scientific evidence presented itself. The fact that the therapy has no scientific value or medical value, becomes meaningless because the "placebo" power of the mind can effect healing, and there are dozens of other ways we can get "well" also, yes?

Anyway, your points well taken.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:19 - ID#328159)
How to snoop on stock trader chat
Want to snoop on stock day trader chat ( e.g. see my Fri May 08
09:39 and 09:41 ) ? Having problems with ICQ? Want to create
Kitco / Gold Chat / Y2K survival / Financial Meltdown / Gold for Oil /
Seriously Off Topic chat rooms? Why not try IRC:-------

General comments on ICQ/IRC:
IRC client download ( PC & Apple ) URLs, setup and other information
IRC chat servers and channels

(Fri May 08 1998 13:20 - ID#288399)
Tolerant1/gold storage
Thanks. Didn't know about the PVC. Did know about the sshhhhhhh; in fact, I think it's dangerous just being on Kitco.......but who can resist? Thanks again.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:23 - ID#252150)
Australian AU producers@Looks like I was wrong about them selling @ 315+
They were'nt smart enough to do that & ended up selling well under 315.
Just fu*king brilliant!

(Fri May 08 1998 13:24 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- Take two valium and send me 1 OZ of gold.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:25 - ID#269409)
@ Nicodemus/Gunga Din
Thank you to both. It is a fascianting subject eh? Yes I am familiar with the amazing Randi's work, and have read several artciles as well as a book by him.

Penn and Teller have also done some similar work, including demonstrating the methods by which you can fool almost ANYone into believing that almost ANY bogus therapy works! The gist goes soemthing like

* Here, take this ( anyMiracleHerb ) pill, armoatherpy, healing touch, magnet strapped to the arm, et al....


1 ) You get better through your own body's healing and immunity process. "See, the miracle cure worked! amazing"

2 ) You don't improve.

* "Well you didn't take enough of the therapy
* you didn't take it soon enough because we always treat the symptoms, not the disease,
* you didn't "believe" in it strongly enough,
* You would have gotten a lot worse if you didn't take it
* It works for everyone else

(Fri May 08 1998 13:26 - ID#269409)
@ Eldorado
You forgot to perscribe bed rest..something I'd love right now! Besides, aren't you going to take that Platinum Eagle advice???

(Fri May 08 1998 13:27 - ID#289357)
Shlomo @ storage
On the PVC pipe storage thing, just be aware that good silver coins can be affected by the chlorine in the PVC, so only store junk silver there. PVC has no effect on gold. As an alternative, you can use copper pipe ( old well-tarnished copper ) , which would have the added feature of defeating many metal detectors.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:29 - ID#392358)
Y2K prep.
Hello Y2Kers:
if your rural area prtovides propane, butane or kerosene, you could get more or larger tanks from your provider. The benafit is that you only have to lease them
not buy them. Then you can run generators from them. Storing propane can be done for avery long time. Gas degenerates and I think kerosene gets fungus like deisl. Owning a small motorhome might be useful. With a coach you get water storage, sanitary issues are dealt with, propane, generator, solar panels and mobility. Some have up to 200 gallon deisl tanks. There is an addative for deisl
to keep the fungus down. I do not know if it can be used for kerosene.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:30 - ID#289357)

Checked my mailbox; nothing new there.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:32 - ID#434158)
LGB @"demonstrating the methods by which you can fool
almost ANYone into believing that almost ANY bogus therapy works! "
You couldn't.... you wouldn't... apply that kind of logic to Technical Analysis regarding PM pricing.....would you? ( Boy, am I gonna get it for that! )

(Fri May 08 1998 13:33 - ID#427357)
larryn__A (doctors orders)

What's the name of your herbal drink?

(Fri May 08 1998 13:36 - ID#390259)
@LGB No medicine medicine
Although you have posted a masterpiece in scientific discussion of this theme, you missed the point. I have undergone therapy in Bach Flowers of a new system invented by a German named Dietmar Krmer, and I must say it not only works but is far more effective than Homopathie orAcupuncture and it encompasses and surpasses Chinese Medicine. I learned to a certain extent to apply Chakra therapy myself and can to a certain extent feel and mostly see the energy that is built, although being a beginner. My personal experience is that I have been relieved from a deep energetic trough and depression ( unrelated to the past Gold bear market and just as a side effect got rid of a skin problem within 5 Minutes which I had for 3 years and which was resitant to anything in school medicine. I had severe back aches which made working difficult and it has vanished to Zero within 2 weeks without ever coming back since 6 weeks now. My friend has a deep Angst of deep water since 45 years and is not able to even turn out the TV when a movie about the sea is being shown. She is starting to frighten and sweat whenever she sees an ad for the movie Titanic I am confident that with my treatment we will be able to go there together and laugh in a few weeks.
Real Science starts when you try out your hypothesis and either verify them or do the contrary. Pure intellectual effort is the basis for that but one has to go beyond it to increase your real knowledge. I do not plan to convert any nonbelievers into believers, just give those a chance to trywho do want to challenge conventional wisdom, which is what is done at KITCO most of the time. I will inform this audience on my progress from time to time if Bart allows so.
To be or not to be that is the question !
I have decided to be


(Fri May 08 1998 13:37 - ID#57232)
China devaluation, (oops) revaluation
kiwi: Thanks for the post. I get a kick out of knowing that one author did 1/2 the work, but he did not give his permission for the article to be released. That is a round about way of saying that he does not want to be associated with the bad news, but yes it is correct. I think some of our politicians could learn some things from these fellows.

LGB: Did you actually read that stuff you posted? Will anyone else? Two years ago I read up on alternative medicine, and pulled references on Vit C, selenium, omega-3 fatty acids, Vit E, convinced myself they were worth taking and have never regretted the decision. I know you are a doubting thomas on such matters, so you should read Linus Pauling's treatise on Vitamin C. It does for me what he claimed -- I have not missed a day of work due to a cold or other infectious illness since I started taking these vitamins - even with other family members sick at home. It is likely that over the next few years we will learn more about the antioxidants, and find that some are much more effective than others. I feel like an idiot not realizing this twenty years ago when Passwater and others published the first work on such matters. I was much less well informed at the time.

Only you lose if you do not learn about antioxidants, and read the fringe stuff such as the Orgone and try to extract the facts. I must admit I do not believe most of what I have read about the Orgone, but even if 10% is true it is significant.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:39 - ID#410215)
..... Retired Soldier .....

Thank you.

Now, may I offer the proper showing of respect to one who has served his country?

I salute you.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:41 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- Given the asking price on those suckers, I would hope that valium comes with them!

(Fri May 08 1998 13:42 - ID#226327)
How does one bury silver & gold?
A cheap and effective way. Also works for guns. Go to your local hardware store or plumbing retail outlet. Ask for a piece of ABS or PVC-DWV pipe. ABS is black, PVC is white. If do not want to reuse or reopen your container, you can use regular PVC water pipe. I'll explain that in a minute. This pipe comes in 20 ft lengths but you should be able to get it cut to length. The sizes ( inside diameter ) available are 2" 3" 4" and 6'. You are going to need 6" for guns and it is not generally available at hardware stores. Look for a plumber who does retail sales for this.
Decide on the length of pipe proportional to the volume of stuff you want to store. Obviously 10 Mounties can fit in a short piece of 2" pipe. A long gun will require 3ft of 6" pipe.

Next you will need to decide if you want to reuse or reopen your cache or if you just want to be able to open it once. One time is more reliable in terms of sealing.

For one time use, ask for two caps. Of course all these fittings will be in the same size as the pipe. Simply ask for the appropriate glue for the type of pipe. If you are using PVC, you will also need a solvent to clean the pipe before you glue it. Put the contents in the pipe and glue a cap on either end. It is now ready for burial.

For reuse, get one cap, a female adaptor ( FIP ) and a threaded plug. Glue the cap and the female adaptor on the pipe. Insert the contents. Now use pipe dope or teflon tape and coat the threads of both the female adaptor and the plug. Screw the plug into the female adaptor. This is now ready for burial.

The nost important thing: REMEMBER WHERE YOU BURIED IT. You may also want to bury it with some junk metal buried above it to thwart metal detectors. Others may wish to add more ideas about where to bury it.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:42 - ID#410215)
..... Rumor .....

Word from in the pits is that there is a huge order ( 50 million oz + ) waiting at 5.75 silver. This would seem to put a floor on this market, yes?


(Fri May 08 1998 13:43 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron - duh! Now it is.
Created it but forgot to send. If I only had a brain.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:49 - ID#254269)
Just checking up on the Kitco
survivalists chatline .

(Fri May 08 1998 13:49 - ID#347235)
THANK YOU!! No salute needed I was/am Just an NCO ( MSG )

(Fri May 08 1998 13:51 - ID#25171)
Financial meltdown and real estate
In case of a severe Y2K crisis what will happen to real estate value?
If the monetary system, as we know it, survives it is likely that real estate will collapse.
However, if fiat money disappears, is it valid to argue that people's wealth will be mostly stored in hard assets and that the cumulated value of these assets will have to rise drastically to represent the world's GDP?
Of course liquid hard assets like PM coins will have a huge liquidity premium but I still think that farmland and housing will have a huge relative value as everibody will want to exchange the added value that they produce into tangible assets.
I might be missing something here?

(Fri May 08 1998 13:52 - ID#317193)
Thanks for the "rumor".


(Fri May 08 1998 13:52 - ID#57232)
A tidbit for you
LGB: Here's some food for thought. You are right that individuals who blindly believe in something lose -- they can be convinced that if something does not happen as predicted, it is because they failed to sdo something. On the other hand, individuals who believe 'a priori' that something cannot happen, or that a claimed process does not work, are condemned to live whatever life they have chosen for themselves, as there is no room for improvement. If Einstein believed the latter, there would be no general relativity, and Orville and Wilbur Wright would not have been able to duplicate the flight of birds with devices much denser than birds. Wasn't it Eddie Rickenbacker that claimed he could sink a battleship with airplanes, and was ridiculed by the Navy?

Sorry, Bart -- I will stick more gold related topics for the rest of this quiet day.

(Fri May 08 1998 13:57 - ID#410114)
Junk Silver I agree
Date: Fri May 08 1998 12:02
tolerant1 ( Junk Bag of silver dimes ) ID#31868:
best metal buy on the planet at this time in history.

Tolerant1 I agree.

I've tried to get quotes from 4 different dealers and have found it like pulling hens teeth to get them. Everyone wants to talk about Numismatics

There is no interest in the things and a very low premium

Cage Rattler
(Fri May 08 1998 13:57 - ID#33184)
Y2K and frozen bank accounts
If bank accounts were frozen ( say mid to late 1999 ) in order to prevent any runs ( cash withdrawals, etc. ) on them, how would that affect any loans that they have? Would the loans be frozen? Would interest still accumulate on those loans?

(Fri May 08 1998 13:59 - ID#31868)
800-593-2585 - ask for Russ Savage, tell him the idiot in NY told you to call.


(Fri May 08 1998 14:02 - ID#225283)
calling all Short Term & Day Traders

If you were to pick three NYSE listed stocks that would yield the greatest ROI on a small investment of $5000 each...Which three would be your favorites based upon closing price on May 11th and held until June 5th, 1998. Perhaps IPO or xdiv plays, maybe even a gold stock? THank you very much for your opinion .

(Fri May 08 1998 14:06 - ID#269409)
@ JTF / Open minds?
Can't disagree with a point you made, however, that's because our thoughts are not at odds. The equation I respect is

* Creative open mind +
The overall weight of compelling objective evidence =
Reasonable conclusions as to what is the truth on a matter.

However, this isn't the final word on anything, it only reveals the "understood" truth of the matter until FURTHER compelling evidence in a different direction, convinces us otherwise, yes?

(Fri May 08 1998 14:06 - ID#434158)
Sequin: Y2K crisis what will happen to real estate value?
I suspect it will vary, according to the utilitarian value of the specific real estate. Right now we have farmland selling at $3800 per acre to folks who want to build new houses on it. That same land produces $200 per year profit to the farmer: hardly a good investment. I suspect the "housing" value will decline, and the "farming" value will increase. Thirty acres with a house may be worth considerably more than a California beach-front condo. "Practical value" usage will increase, and "premium value" will dissiapate. Temporarily, of course. But then, in the long run, ( who said this? ) we are all dead.
Haven't figured out how the "practical value" aspect will apply to gold and silver, unless you argue that their function as a store of value IS their "practical value". ( If that's not a tautology, it should be. )

(Fri May 08 1998 14:09 - ID#225283)
3 stock picks

The reason for my request for input is that I HAVE ENTERED INTO A WAGER OF $25000.00....he with the greatest increase in value wins! NYSE listed stocks only but any advisor input is okay. Stocks must be picked by 4pm est today!

(Fri May 08 1998 14:10 - ID#434158)
Sequin: Y2K crisis what will happen to real estate value?
RE my farmland quote, my mistake: farmer gets 200 per acre BEFORE expenses, 100 per acre after. Again, not an ideal investment, especially if you figure his labor. Sorry for the error.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:10 - ID#269409)
@ Junk Silver
A hearty "amen" to the idea of holding physical silver in junk coin form. One suggesiton....the numismatic coin market is heating up like mad. You might consider getting "junk" coins wiht a small Numismatic premium, currently at bargain levels not far above melt. They'll never be anymore of these coins minted, yes?

I refer specifically to, Mercury head dimes, Walking Liberty Half dollars, Morgan and Peace silver dollars. All can be had for a very small premium over "junk"...yet their potential for appreciation in the future, even apart from bullion, is substantial ( IMHO )

(Fri May 08 1998 14:11 - ID#31868)
TTRIF - Thermo Tech and my favorite to make a move is TNX - Tan Range but it is on CAN stock exchange.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:12 - ID#298259)
PrivateInvestor...daily trading...
Haven't tried this site myself but I believe it was someone on Kitco who posted the URL...

(Fri May 08 1998 14:18 - ID#286279)
I sent you three messages and two tests about 11am Fri my time or 6am ( ? ) Sat your time. Did you get any of them?

(Fri May 08 1998 14:25 - ID#25171)
@ GungaDin and all
In addition to a house where your family can leave and PM coins I recommend forest ownership rather than naked farmland.
The compounded yield of pine trees growing over 30 years is currently 10%.
Whichever way we are headed, people will always need wood for construction , fireplace , paper or furniture. ( etc... )
Even if we avoid the economic collapse, wood will become more expensive as forest are decimated in the third world and the ecological lobby gets more powerfull.
Thank you.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:26 - ID#197289)
Burying gold and silver
You are welcome to bury your gold and silver in my basement.
It is a very safe place.
No guns though, thanks.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:27 - ID#57232)
LGB: Truth is derived from weighing the + and - evidence. This is a never ending process. Even Einstein's general relativity may have holes in it, now that it is likely that gravitons do not exist, and gravity/ inertia may be an electromagnetic process. Einstein himself would have eagerly read up on the new experimental data, even if it meant he would have to make some modifications, though I'm sure he would have given those 'upstarts' a run for their money. No one loses by having an open mind. I just learned that Einstein was just as disappointed as Michelson that the Aether could not be detected in his time.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:43 - ID#222231)
All, save your breath!
Trying to get a point across to leaky gum boots is like trying to argue with your wife. ( You never win. ) After all, how can you debate with someone who is all knowing and omnipotent.

ITMW, buy physical gold and silver in whatever amounts one can afford, and you wll surely win.

(Fri May 08 1998 14:47 - ID#230216)
Science vs Herbal Medication......hmmmmm...I like it.
I have a little ditty to go with LGB/Mozel debate.....

and a one and a two.......


I smoke two joints in the mornin'

I smoke two joints at night...

I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints

and then I feel alright

....smoke two joints

that's what I like.....


this is ANOTHER way to treat malaises ( sp ) ....or more commonly.....whatever is buggin ya'....EH! ;- ) Or it could at least help someones appetite after a full dose of *chemo*. Munchies, etc...

Don't think we are off subject here. A good oz of some *cronic* ( or so they say ) .... ( wink ) is the price of one oz of Platinum ( give or take, depending on El Nino years ) ......uh huh. I have been studying price charts and will be ready when CBOT or COMEX decide to trade *cronic* futures with OPEN OUTCALL. Go long Bud short Plat spread, etc. I am mailing Ted the Charts as I post.....he will compile the data and get back to us.......if'n it don't go up in smoke. ( just kidding lgb I don't inhale ) .... ( haven't exhaled in a while either ) .......ohmy ( ! )

( can one or ANOTHER guess the band who sings that one ) ....StudioR ( ? ) ....Ted probably could. It was a Friday night ritual at 4:00 on K-fog in Bay area.......LGB should know... work


(Fri May 08 1998 14:47 - ID#344259)
A.Goose re Comex
What's your take? Vol 60 thous +, OI 64 thous +, a decr of 20 thous +. Is this rollover or what? thanx Charlie

Mike Stewart
(Fri May 08 1998 14:56 - ID#270253)
LGB and others
James Randi has a web page. Try

(Fri May 08 1998 14:59 - ID#256250)

Date: Fri May 08 1998 13:07
DEJ ( Fed draining reserves answer. ) ID#269191:

Thanks for your explanation. So if I understand this correctly, The Fed sells securities and collects checks and then cash. I assume that to insure buyers are interested in these securities, the fed gives them a better deal than they can get either on the open market or from treasury auctions. So they get these securities "on sale" so to speak.

If folks are in the mind to make money on this cirlce of paper ( paper currency for paper securities or paper bonds ) , they will sell the securities for cash AND low and behold  the Fed will come back the next day and sell them even more securities at an even better deal. For the past six ( 6 ) days the FED has drained liquidity ( meaning usdollars are WAY to many in the open market ) .

Looks like this could turn into a death spiral real easy. At some point ( when things get real scary ) , folks will stop buying paper with paper and start buying real assets with paper.

I expect when that first happens we will see stores fall while prices fall. Why? I think this strange situation will occur because prices are set from paper trading ( as we have seen in comex - copper the best example at the moment ) . When push comes to shove, paper is paper, tin is tin, food is food,  gold is gold, and folks will choose anything over paper unless they are heading to the john.


(Fri May 08 1998 15:02 - ID#256250)

Date: Fri May 08 1998 14:47
chas ( A.Goose re Comex ) ID#344259:
What's your take? Vol 60 thous +, OI 64 thous +, a decr of 20 thous +. Is this rollover or what? thanx Charlie

I don't know chas, I will look at it when I get the results from comex tonight.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:02 - ID#252150)
Keeping the faith@Sold my Y2K stock for a 24% gain in 3 weeks & bought some
BGR Prec Mtls Wts which were down 33% in about the same period. I think that's how we're supposed to do it..We'll see.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 15:04 - ID#384350)
Vronsky, yer 10:10 Sign o' the Times
I notice in your example, the retired in question has not sold his condo and invested the proceeds in the market. $250K is merely created into existence through fractional reserves. This newly created money is then allowed to bid up stocks, bonds, real estate, or other assets ( except gold it seems ) .

Newly created paper dollars are chasing a fixed amount of assets.

Personally, I don't perceive loads of people actually taking out 2nd mortgages on their homes and putting it in the market, although this must happen to some extent.

What I do see is that people are using 2nd mortgages, margin loans, credit cards and such For CONSUMPTION, Rather than selling stocks or real estate that they already own.

I used to do this. Instead of selling my dear shares, I would borrow on margin against them to support my modest lifestyle. There used to be some pretty good tax advantages, but the govt moved the goalposts on me.

Also, refinancing a mortgage at a lower rate of interest does free up extra cash flow for an individual with which he may consume or put more into his favorite mutual fund.

Importantly what it does is this: It pents up selling pressure to the point that when earnings truly do disappoint, which will happen once higher interest rates work through the economy, the stock market will crumble in the face of snowballing margin calls. Only the strong and well-positioned will be able to ride it out.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 08 1998 15:09 - ID#24135)
Bedtime for little leaky..

oh yes ..
I forgot .. pompous .. hackneyed..
self-important .. wordy .. I think
that covers it ...

.. and a grand call on silver ..
hee hee.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:12 - ID#246224)
Can I take lessons from you? TIA!

(Fri May 08 1998 15:17 - ID#286279)
You should have a safe, even if you don't put gold and guns in it, you will find it fills up very fast anyway with heirlooms, binoculars, cameras, jewelry, documents, etc. Look for a used one at gun stores or in newspaper ads under guns. The kind you a put a padlock on is too weak. Look at Browning type or heavier, with a Sargeant & Greenleaf type combination lock. Take the door off and transport in locked position so you must reset the relocker if it tripped. Depending on what you are storing put a few or more small fire safes in it.

Good luck.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:17 - ID#288369)
I Don't thiNk smOK kin' thaT MUCH wEEd is realL:ly good for thAtPERsoN TalKin' abot.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri May 08 1998 15:18 - ID#347267)
Subject Matter: Bandwidth & Length
Any and all:
Suggest we "stick to the subject" and stop with the long off topic posts.
Mtn Bear

(Fri May 08 1998 15:22 - ID#286279)
And bolting it in a corner ( inside a closet maybe ) provides fewer ways to pry it or drill it.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:36 - ID#238295)
Today's rebound in gold and gold stocks was rather mediocre. Considerably more backing and filling needed before the next upside blastoff.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:37 - ID#286250)

QUESTION: What country has a trade deficit?
( a ) Japan.... ( b ) China.... ( c ) USA

QUESTION: What country needs to sell product to address
its trade deficit?
( a ) Japan.... ( b ) China.... ( c ) USA

QUESTION: What country needs to DEVALUE its currency to
sell product and/or address deficits and/or balance accounts?
( a ) Japan.... ( b ) China.... ( c ) USA

QUESTION: What country has BOOMING banks, BOOMING markets,
STRONGEST currency in the WORLD and fewest problems?
( a ) Japan.... ( b ) ....China.... ( c ) USA

QUESTION: What is the term that best describes the situation
as above outlined?
( a ) Denial... ( b ) Wishful Thinking... ( c ) The Right of Kings

(Fri May 08 1998 15:40 - ID#411150)
..... Stand At Ease .....


I also, was an NCO.

We BOTH worked for a living, yes?

(Fri May 08 1998 15:42 - ID#411150)
..... Better Question .....

SDRer -

What IS a trade deficit?

I submit that it is meaningless

I can argue this by cut and paste


(Fri May 08 1998 15:44 - ID#246224)
Real Estate and shhhhhhhhhhh............

Real Estate, whose market is based on the wide spread availability of loans, is NOT an investment opportunity right now. The real estate boom/bust cycle is relatively compact compared to equities. In other words, sell when the market is strong if you intend to sell at all in the forseeable future. There will be no 15 year bull market in real estate. This real estate market is all air anyway, which doubles the motivation to cash out BITL ( before its to late ) . Buy when the market is weak or dead. The other problem with real estate is tax liability. If municipalities are starved for cash they will increase taxes on real estate. You are encumbered and they may suck you dry.

If the system implodes due to Y2K, and not just a financial depression or the like, then one of the biggest problems will be legal transfer of property which has loans due since no one will be able to legally untangle and pay off the respective interests. Deeds are terribly important, but who has them? Virtually no one. We all have mortgages. The mortgage company holds the deed. If you can not access the deed then you can not buy or sell property without incuring trememdous risk.

If Y2K implodes the economy how will a renter pay their rent? Will government revoke the right of an owner to evict?

IMHO sell any real estate you don't need to live in, and hold cash in hand. One day the smoke will clear and you will have enough opportunity then.

RE: safe storage

I would not be inclined to store valuables in a 'safe' since it looks like valuables *should* be inside. The septic tank might be a good place! ( not for silver or less than 24 kt gold though ) Seriously.

I would not be inclined to store valuables in places or ways that every 'How To Store Your Valuables' manual suggests. This for obvious reasons. The idea of fooling metal detectors with 'junk' hardware is a good start IMO. Use a nail gun to imbed a few thousand nails all over your yard! This is a tough one and requires ingenuity. But could be alot of fun.

The idea of hiding stuff in frames of vehicles has some appeal until you see someone steal your car or truck .. as you wave bye-bye, with a tear in your eye. Or if you go across a boarder .. and those customes fellas DO know how to look for things like that.

I like the story, recently reported, of the home owner in Britian who was renovating and had to do some foundation work on the old place. They excavated and found a clay pot with Roman gold coins in it buried in the earth floor. The home site appearantly had been inhabited since half way to forever and this clay pot cache was a previous owner's 'bank' and safe store.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:47 - ID#252150)
Allen@I have some doubts. While the Y2K / IT stock (GIB.A.T) has been really hot
lately, it's P/E is only 138.

(Fri May 08 1998 15:47 - ID#390415)

Gold and Silver Index ( I:XAU )





As of





+1.09 1.31%

(Fri May 08 1998 15:49 - ID#293379)
back with the goodies

Just returned from the precious metals store with a couple of the kids. They insisted we get some silver bars and just wouldn't stop putting them in the basket. The store man tells me he can't keep fresh gold on the shelves at these prices. And there were only two wilted tenth ounce platinum eagles left. Folks bought out the whole lot this week on the low prices... couldn't get the two ounces I went there for... the boy's mom won't be happy. I don't know how I'm supposed to take care of my growing family if he doesn't stock more often. Guess I better get up earlier next time...

(Fri May 08 1998 15:53 - ID#225283)
3 stock picks

The reason for my request for input is that I HAVE
ENTERED INTO A WAGER OF $25000.00....he with the
greatest increase in value wins! NYSE listed
stocks only but any advisor input is okay. Stocks
must be picked by 4pm est today!

(Fri May 08 1998 16:01 - ID#31868)
Allen - of course if you can clap your hands you can work with fiber glass, this
being the case, cut open a surf board, and stuff it with the metals of your choice, make some half inch thick skate boards, buy a flare gun and load your own shells with gold and platinum. Good grief, I think the best place to hide stuff is right out in the open.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:02 - ID#252150)
Not bad@BGR Prec Mtls Wts are up 11% since I bought them 4 hrs ago
Who needs any of those wimpy SA stocks. Just kidding. I own Rangy.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:03 - ID#32078)
surf board
Tolerant1.. Do you still use that surfboard in the ocean?

(Fri May 08 1998 16:03 - ID#57232)
Great Post!
SDRer: That should get things on track again! The odd thing is, the dollar does need to come down a bit for the sake of the world's economy. The strong dollar contributed in part to the SEAsian crisis. How do you do that and keep gold/oil cheap at the same time?

Maybe you can explain to me why the US reserves are dwindling if there is a flood of dollars back to the US. That does not make sense to me. Interest rates really haven't budged.

Clearly something is up, regardless.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:06 - ID#31868)
larryn_A - yes, it is also good for moving items on and off shore
when the need arises. Paddle in and paddle out. Voila'

(Fri May 08 1998 16:09 - ID#347235)
10-4, I started out as a combat photographer, in Nam 23 Months w/ Ist Cav Div.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:09 - ID#31868)
Also, slit open a a heavy duty raft, lay in an internal bladder seam to seam on any
of the outer or cross sectional support tubes and re-seal. A dingy raft behind your main vessel kind of deal.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:10 - ID#290118)
There is one heck of a mass market for Gold coins. With Y2K, millenium prophecies and tomorrow the release of the asteroid/comet global disaster movie Deep Impact. Is there someone out there who knows someone in the Gold business who could get a DeBeers style campaign going to persuade individuals to buy just a few Gold coins - for insurance - to take care of their families, etc? The same spiel life insurance companies use.

65 million people ( just 1/3rd of adult Americans and more worldwide ) each buying one or two 1oz Eagles, Maple Leafs, etc. will likely SQUIRREL them away for posterity - FOR THEIR KIDS. These buyers would NOT usually sell them back - the coins will stay in circulation somewhere - even if in pawnshops.

65 million ounces would soak up 2,000 metric tons of GOLD.

Such demand would drive the POG up and make for HAPPY GOLD BUGS!

Instead of just reacting to market moves - can Kitcoites influence the market by selling such an idea to the right people who can implement it?

(Fri May 08 1998 16:13 - ID#31868)
Squirrel - the horror of it is that you can even make such a comment, I still ask
the question, who is and what is The World Gold Council. If I had half their budget for the past ten years you would be finding soverigns in boxes of CrackJacks by now.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:14 - ID#263379)
French love and kisses to Mr. Duisenberg!

The French must just love Mr. Duisenberg.....

"Wm Duisenberg, the designated president of the future European Central Bank, CHALLENGED Jacques Chirac, the French President, by saying he had not explicitly agreed to step down midway through his 8 year term."

A marriage made in heaven! Oh, Isn't love wonderful. Geeeeeeeeeee


(Fri May 08 1998 16:15 - ID#287280)
RJ --"What is a trade deficit?"

Whatever it is, it is obviously a very, very good thing
to have! Cut, paste and hold on to it. {:- )

JTF: Suspect with one grain of evidence, two grains of evidence,
three grains of evidence..and growing
that some ummmmh 'things' are NOT priced in dollars when the
deals are done...{:- (

(Fri May 08 1998 16:17 - ID#269409)
@ Sheller...SSC
What's up with SSC Mike? ( If you're around ) ...drops 10% today as PAASF and SSRIF rises, and the bullion price is up ( albeit slightly ) . I'm SORELY tempted to place a buy order Monday at 1.00, what do you think?

(Fri May 08 1998 16:19 - ID#57232)
Trade deficits are not meaningless
RJ: Not if they are calculated correctly. The 'Economist' journal often has a good temporal summary of these in their semi-annual state of the world economy booklet. In the old days when currencies were firmly backed by gold, one could predict the direction of the flow of gold from one country to another by the trade deficit. AG talked about this in a Cato institute speech last year. In these fiat currency days, Americans tend to ignore this, because 'the trade deficit is so small anyway'.

Those little bitty trade deficits are going to get us sooner or later -- sort of like an irresistable force of nature. The US dollar is eventually going to go the way of the Pound Sterling, but it will take a major event to wean the world of their addiction to the US dollar -- more than just another Oct 97 SEAsian crisis -- it will need to be a world-wide crisis, IMHO.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:20 - ID#31868)
oh yeah, one of my favorites, got a ceiling fan, lay some rounds on top of the
blades, apply duct tape and voila' spinning bank account collecting no interest, none at all.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:21 - ID#269409)
@ RJ...silver / Platinum
Loved your post earlier re a major player supporting the silver price with a huge buy order waiting in the wings at $5.75, now a question. I'm considering Platinum again now that's it's dropped below $394, BUT, being a novice in Platinum my question is...

With Palladium in freefall ( I assume due to rumors that the Russkies will soon be shipping ) how does this bode for Platinum's future over the next few months?

P.S. I'm still amazed at the prescience of that call you made months ago re Palladium "crossing over" Gold. Even finding "after the fact" artciles about it in my Numismatic pubs.!

(Fri May 08 1998 16:24 - ID#269409)
@ EB
Was it the Doobie Brothers? ( They still are makin some excellent music, some of the band plays in other "local" bands around town now....Soul Drivers for example )

(Fri May 08 1998 16:25 - ID#31868)
One of my all time favorites, when was the last time someone stole your
birdfeeder? Thought so.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:28 - ID#269409)
Vitamin E comes in that nice GOLDEN colored capsule...I take both E and C, and selenium. But be careful...heard of some studies that Linus Pauling's vaunted "megadoses" of "C", can cause Prostate cancer in certain studies and liver disease in others. All things in moderation eh?

(Fri May 08 1998 16:29 - ID#57232)
Just a thought
SDRer: Perhaps the commotion about the dollar is because the dollar recycling machine nearly got overloaded this week, and AG etal got worried. Interest rates would probably have gone wild if we did reach saturation. I think we should take a careful look at our national debt figures to see if another 50-100 billion has been added in the last week or so -- thats where all that SEAsia related debt went. Great place to sweep it under the rug for the next generation to face -- in 2010-2015.

I wonder -- what would happen to the markets if interest rates went up two-three percent in a few days due to a dollar flood? Frightening thought!

(Fri May 08 1998 16:30 - ID#269409)
@ Lowest Unemployment in 28 yrs....inflation worries?
Friday May 8, 4:07 pm Eastern Time

US Treasuries close lower, yield to profit-taking

By Scott Gerlach

NEW YORK, May 8 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasuries finished lower on Friday after a late round of profit-taking erased modest
gains longer-term issues had built throughout the session.

A surprising April drop in the U.S. unemployment rate, posted on Friday morning, sparked inflation fears and dealt an early
blow to Treasuries prices. But most issues had returned to neutral or positive territory before the late selloff.

At the 1500 EDT/1900 GMT futures close, the long bond ended 7/32 lower at 102-3/32 to yield 5.97 percent. Two-year notes
closed off 2/32 at 100-2/32, yielding 5.59 percent.

``We had rallied back over the course of the day, and now you're seeing some profit-taking on purchases made during a couple
of dips this morning,'' Bill Kirby, co-head trader at Prudential Securities Inc, said when asked to describe the afternoon price

At 0830 EDT/1230 GMT, the Labor Department reported a 262,000-worker April payrolls gain and 0.3-percent hourly
earnings increase, both of which closely matched forecasts.

But Labor also said the jobless rate fell to 4.3 percent last month from 4.7 percent in March, testing investors' faith that
historically low unemployment will not trigger inflation.

The news jolted bonds, sending their price down about half a point in the immediate aftermath. But a more reasoned reading
of the data allowed a recovery, dealers said.

``The number wasn't probably as strong as the headline printed,'' Kirby said.

Investors eventually chose to focus on milder aspects of the jobs report, such as the decline in weekly hours worked, overtime
hours and the manufacturing workweek. They concluded the figures offered little threat to the solid-growth, low-inflation

``The reaction is that people still think the Fed is on hold and can't move because of Asia,'' said a head trader at another
primary dealership.

Market participants decided the strong employment figures did not warrant a bond yield back above six percent, he said. But
the trader added that such a quick dismissal of the apparent labor tightness might prove overly hasty.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.22 A week ago the ratio was 30.28, a year ago it was 20.76.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:33 - ID#290118)
Tolerant1 - screw the World Gold Council!
Is there some other potential group who can DO SOMETHING instead of talking or reacting. Sovereigns in Cracker Jack boxes not. But for a measly few hundred US dollars a person can give an valuable heirloom to their children {who will hock it at the nearest pawnshop for party money}. Even a 1/2 ounce coin could be an cornerstone in the foundation of their child's future. {Now I'm starting to sound like a life insurance salesman!}

(Fri May 08 1998 16:33 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .281 The 50 day moving average remains .266. A year ago the ratio was .301

(Fri May 08 1998 16:41 - ID#269409)
LBMA extends it's delivery relaxation reqmnts, silver
riday May 8, 11:36 am Eastern Time

Gold rise checked by U.S. options expiry

LONDON, May 8 ( Reuters ) - Gold rose on Friday after mildly bullish remarks by
European Central Bank board nominee Christian Noyer, before coming under pressure
from sales related to the impending expiry of New York's COMEX June gold options,
traders said.

Gold fixed at $300.40 an ounce in the afternoon, up on the morning's $299.10, after
Noyer spoke in Brussels at a European Parliament hearing on his candidature.

The Frenchman said the ECB and national central banks needed to hold on to their gold
and foreign exchange reserves at the start of European Economic and Monetary Union
( EMU ) to reinforce the new euro currency's credibility.

``I think we have the necessary strike force,'' Noyer said, referring to the reserves.

But he added that only time would tell what happened to reserves in the future, noting
some had suggested surplus reserves could be used to pay down debt.

``His remarks were considered to be mildly bullish and took us back above $300.00,'' said
one London dealer.

``We saw some reasonable quality buying this morning, which was effectively short
covering, but I don't think we'll go too far from where we are now,'' he said.

Open interest at the $300.00 strike price for the COMEX June option should ensure
stability until the close on Friday, he said.

``I think the options traders have it to sell above $300.00,'' he said.

The bullion market has been dominated by the ECB gold question for months, with the
bears arguing the bank's creation would prompt a sell-off from the 14,000 tonnes of gold
held by national banks due to join the euro-zone.

``The speed of the rise on that slightly bullish news was a good indication of what the
market could do if the uncertainty is removed,'' said the dealer.

Another dealer was less impressed, saying concrete news could be a long way off with the
only certainty being that the ECB must begin operations by July 1.

``We have been advising our clients for a while now that the market was anticipating a
decision ( on reserves ) in June but we think it will be later,'' she said.

On New York's COMEX, June gold was last trading up $1.10 at $300.70 an ounce, in
marked contrast to Thursday's five-week low of $297.80.

Spot silver managed a slight rally, climbing through its pivot point at $6.00, albeit in
choppy trade. It was last straddling what had been a key support and then resistance point,
trading at $5.99/$6.02 versus its previous New York close of $5.96/$5.99.

On COMEX, July silver was last trading 50 cents down at $5.97 an ounce.

As from Friday, physical delivery rules for London silver began a return to their usual
five-day period, from the temporary 15 days, with delivery periods due to shorten by one
day each day until May 22.

The LBMA put the extension in place on February 5 in an attempt to improve liquidity in
a spot silver market blighted by spiralling lease rates in the wake of U.S. investor Warren
Buffett's announcement of his 130 million ounce stake in the market.

Among platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , palladium had another weak day, falling to
$314.00/$324.00 an ounce versus its previous New York close of $325.00/$335.00, as
lending helped ease recent tensions on supplies.

But no significant fall are foreseen until the Russians begin their 1998 exports of all

Platinum was last $2.00 firmer at $396.00/$398.00.

On NYMEX, July platinum was last up $2.40 at $396.0 while June palladium was down 35
cents at $304.0.

(Fri May 08 1998 16:41 - ID#287280)
JTF --Excellent suggestion!
( but we all expect that of you! {:- ) ) In some lights, the financial
picture assumes a Dali-like surrealism...or perhaps I need a lunch
break? {:- ) )

(Fri May 08 1998 16:41 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.94 A year ago the ratio was 71.17

(Fri May 08 1998 16:50 - ID#427357)
I see a very bullish price chart of DROOY ( Durban Deep ) - after reading my analysis it might prove profitable to peek at the chart located at the URL below.

My short-term view is dependent on gold NOT cratering in the next couple of weeks - if it does all bets are off. Here's what I see in the DROOY chart.

Since mid-March this year to mid-April DROOY zoomed nearly 70% - to its intra-day high. In the last couple of weeks, it has - understandably - been consolidating. Interestingly, the price chart is forming a classic book example of a pennant - a spike up forming the post, followed by sharply diminishing volume as the pennant unfolds downward on lower prices.

TA predicts that a breakout of the pennant ON-VOLUME provides a measuring target of about 4 7/16. That would represent a gain of nearly 40% from its close of 3 7/32. Please recall successful pennant breakouts usually meet their price target in a very short period. HEY, a 40% gain is no big deal, but it's better than a poke in the eye with sharp stick.

Here's the DROOY price chart:

(Fri May 08 1998 16:54 - ID#288295)
tolerant1 @ W.G.C.
If they were a REAL World Gold Council, half the people on this site wouldn't be beating their brains out and spending endless hours trying to figure out what in the heck is going on with gold. Those guys ( WGC ) are supremely positioned to know. If they do know, and aren't telling, then we should be able to find out why.....ALL THAT ON TOP OF THE FACT, as you stated, that their advertising campaign ( if it exists ) for gold is considerably worse than is used in marketing carbon paper....we need to find a contact inside the WGC....WHOMEVER YOU ARE AT THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL, COME OUT OF YOUR CLOSET AND PROMOTE GOLD !!!

(Fri May 08 1998 16:59 - ID#316193)
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy -- One of the Best Web Sites, and Never Mentioned

(Fri May 08 1998 17:02 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re Drooy
You'd make a damn good bird hunter- pick one out and nail him. That's what it looks like on drooy.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:02 - ID#31868)
Squirrel - I have been toying with the idea (not joking here) of writing to the folks
at Cuervo. To get them to market the Gold and Silver Sombrero series coin. There could be a little hang-pamphlet on each bottle neck with the offer. Napkins, etc. 10s of millions of people would see it.

Revolutions start in bars...

(Fri May 08 1998 17:05 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron-I have spoken with them. They are not savvy sales nor marketing
people. They are a think tank at best from what I can figure. I will email you on the specifics.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 17:08 - ID#212323)
At these prices, every Kitco reader is sure to have some gold bullion on hand...
Set it on a table in front of you. Try to honestly imagine how difficult it would be and how hard you would have to toil to accumulate that amount of gold from Mother Earth by yourself...knowledge, tools, time ( food, clothing and shelter during your task ) , permission to mine the land, etc.
*THAT* represents the value of each and every ounce of gold on the planet.

Now, compare that amount of effort to what you *actually* had to endure to earn the CASH to purchase that amount of gold. During that money-making effort, how much discomfort did you feel? Did you still have time to play softball, go to the theatre and restaurants, etc.?

My point has been made. We should all feel guilty to have the ability to simply *buy* gold at these prices, but I submit to you, WE SHOULD ALL BE BUYING GOLD AT THESE PRICES.

I couldn't be paid enough to personally scrape around in the hills for the same gold I have easily purchased... Indeed, we mock history.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:17 - ID#288295)
Aragorn III

And for at least part of that gold in front of you, someone paid the ultimate price, either in producing it or by owning it; or perhaps it saved someone from that sacrifice.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 17:30 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron...So true for gold in general...
I would guess that the bloodiest gold ( that has been handled through the ages ) has been gathered into the various government coffers. My gold is fresh from the earth, or if not, I pay tribute for the weary hands that once relied on its security and am glad to have liberated it from the Govt inventory on their behalf. I do NOT mock history...

(Fri May 08 1998 17:38 - ID#342315)
SDRer re Euro
I can't believe that , from many sources, there are that many world decision makers that have been sucked in by this questionable new "currency". If it were convertible, I could see it. But whose to say that just backing will control the amount of issue? Appreciate your comments. Charlie

(Fri May 08 1998 17:40 - ID#26793)
Rubin still beating up on Japan; demands "action not words"

(Fri May 08 1998 17:43 - ID#57232)
Vit C and Vit E, selenium
LGB: 20 grams per day Vit C can be tolerated by most people, but that is a waste because you just pee it out anyway. Water soluble. Linus Paulings work suggests that 2-5 gm per day gives the maximal effect -- not just the well known wound healing effects -- but also the less well known enhancement of the immune system -- I compromise by taking 3gm per day of the buffered kind -- 1/2 in morning, 1/2 at night. On Vit E be sure to use the natural kind -- alpha- beta- and gamma- tocopherols, because the synthetic kind is alpha only. I take 400u/day. I am much more careful with A,D,E,K the fat soluble vitamins, as toxic levels are easier to reach -- goes into your fat and doesn't come out. Still remember that poor fellow who lost the soles of his feet by overdosing on VitA ( polar bear liver ) .

As you probably know, the actions of Vit C and E are synergistic. Probably selenium, too. You want the natural kind -- selenium methionate 100 ugram/day -- not the inorganic kind, which you can more easily overdose on.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:47 - ID#57232)
RR and Japan at G7
Donald: My guess is that RR does not want another 'dollar flood' like the one at the beginning of the week. Do you have any idea how many dollars at once our FED 'dollar recycler' can handle? If it is easily overloaded, we could be in deep trouble real fast.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:54 - ID#194311)
Speaking of quack-therapies and gold....
I heard ( take it or leave it ) that there is a treatment in Sweden for rheumatoid athritis whereby the lucky patient gets and injection into the bloodstream of some carrier with small amounts of GOLD....why do you need a could just inject your inheritance athritis free and have the kids sift the ashes at the end of the day for whatevers left over.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:56 - ID#26793)
Moody's has 6 Venezuelan banks under review for possible downgrades.

(Fri May 08 1998 17:59 - ID#26793)
Cambior Gold news

Aragorn III
(Fri May 08 1998 18:01 - ID#212323)
Kiwi...great plan!
And in that light, ( and keeping with personal tradition ) I am off to internalize a little gold myself--liquid gold with bubbles and whatnot...

(Fri May 08 1998 18:14 - ID#307271)
Shlomo et al
Storage of fuel can be tricky business unless you "cycle" it; that is continue to use and replenish it regularly. Otherwise, you must consider using various additives to keep the fuel "healthy". Additives to prevent pseudomonas aeruginosa proliferation ( bacterial growth ) in the fuel and to inhibit water or prevent tank erosion are to be considered for long-term storage.

As to safes and storage of valuables: The best safe places are completely unseen and unsuspected. For example, a false wall has historically been the most useful and effective hiding place. A false basement wall can be used to hide an entire armamentarium of stache. These false walls are built typically of blocks with a pseudopanel of wood which can be removed. Beyond that, floor safes are commmonly used in businesses because they can be totally unremovable and can be placed under furnuiture.

All this notwithstanding, don't forget In Cold Blood by Truman Capote. The entire Clutter family was wiped out ( true story ) because a former farm hand talked to a fellow inmate about the Clutter's safe.

(Fri May 08 1998 18:15 - ID#290118)
Retake on Tolerant1's Cracker Jack Box idea
and his 17:02 marketing idea of Cuervo's Gold & Silver Sombrero series coin. Instead of gold flakes in a bottle of booze - How about a 1/10oz bar or coin in a bottle - small enough to shake out when the liquor is gone. Adds maybe $40 to the price of a $40 bottle of liquor. Okay - maybe $20 liquor to make it $60 - still within a reasonable price range.
Make the coins a series of designs - "Collect all ten for a full ounce! And have a great time doing it." {This advertising copy is getting sick - but the sicker/slicker it is the better it works - right? )

(Fri May 08 1998 18:15 - ID#57232)
Some great graphical data on the national debt -- really graphic!
All: Here is our trade deficit with Japan up to 1995. Trillions of dollars. China, Europe not included. The rest of this site is an eyeopener, even to my jaded eyes that have seen numerous warnings about the runaway debt problem.

Read and enjoy!

(Fri May 08 1998 18:19 - ID#57232)
Home page for debt graphs
All: Here is the home page, some recently updated. Enjoy!

(Fri May 08 1998 18:23 - ID#348286)
Kaplan on Silver - "This means that the commitments for silver remain extremely bearish"
The traders' commitments for these three metals as of May 5, 1998, released at 3:30 p.m. on May 8, 1998 varied widely. For COMEX silver futures, commercial insiders were long 10,026, short 55,532; speculators long 36,486, short 4,082. This means that the commitments for silver remain extremely bearish, not much changed from their levels of two weeks ago. Looking at NYMEX platinum futures, commercial insiders were long 2,019, short 11,192; with speculators long 7,751, short 347, which remains extremely bearish for platinum, though showing a slight improvement from two weeks earlier. For NYMEX palladium futures, commercial insiders were long 2,682, short 2,956; and speculators long 1,096, short 741. This is modestly bullish for palladium, about the same as two weeks ago.

(Fri May 08 1998 18:24 - ID#342315)
Tolerant re tequila and coins
This is a great piece of merchandising. It could work with coke, pepsi ,
Mcdonalds etc. However, it might be better to use little wafers of about 10 grains. I'm working on something like this ( small wafers ) because when gold gets to $1000 to $6000/oz it would be better to have small ones for groceries than having to carve up a 1/2 or 1 oz piece. I have expermented with a 3 grain piece and you can't bend it with your hands. I believe you have something here. Would like to hear your comments. Thanx Charlie. PS I don't believe there's enough junk silver to cover this

(Fri May 08 1998 18:30 - ID#194311)
gold coin in the drink trick....
brings to mind the image of my wretched nephew fishing a gold coin I gave him out of the bottom of the toilet bowl the day after he swallowed it to impress his 8 year old stranger than fiction.

(Fri May 08 1998 18:36 - ID#57232)
Dollar recycling
SDRer: I have another wild question for you. Lets say all those dollars all over the world come home to roost. The FED has the choice of rolling them over into the money supply which will inflate the stock market even more, or rolling them into our national debt, or ? That ? means -- make them disappear. I guess the only catch to this is whatever foreign concern is selling dollars, they want something of value in exchange.

So the dollars can't really disappear, as they reflect our liability to that foreign country.

What are we giving Japan and Europe in exchange for those dollars that they want to sell us, now that gold is not the approved substitute?

What other item of value can we give them?

(Fri May 08 1998 18:40 - ID#376309)
What's up?
Re: ( Date: Fri May 08 1998 06:55 OLD GOLD )

I knew we would see $300 gold again. I took profits on puts which I owed yesterday. It seemed like yesterday was a bit exaustive to the downside but today's weak bounce makes me wish I had not sold them. In any case I used the money to sell more silver today. We will see $5.50.

I've also been trading the stock market. That thing sure does move fast. Up or down it does not matter. It just moves. Gold will be like that someday and I simply can not wait!

(Fri May 08 1998 18:42 - ID#339274)
XAU et al
FWIW The trend is down for the rest of the month.Silver and gold
are structuring on the chart negatively.We might get a rally
for the first week of June and than my expectation is we
definitely going down until the last week of July.Price is
anybody's guess.From that turning point we probaly see the rally
to 340,to be going south again.Wheat and corn will be bottoming
around the same time, whiffs off deflation.To buy Dec spreads of the
grains could be quite profitable including beef and hogs.
BTW pull up the XAU hourly chart and see the coming of a head and shoulder formation.Have a nice and prosperous day.

(Fri May 08 1998 18:55 - ID#26793)
I think the answer to your question is that the Fed can remove all the non-borrowed reserves from the banking system. That is in theory only. We would be in a super credit crunch at some point before that happened.

(Fri May 08 1998 19:01 - ID#57232)
One more distrubing idea about how we pay for those foreign dollars
All: Please tell me where I am wrong. We have at least 1.5 trillion in dollars outside our borders ( actually, treasuries and other debt instruments ) . Lets say you are AG et al and you get a lot of dollar sales. You have to give all of these foreign concerns something of 'real' value. So -- you create more internal debt instruments, and use them to buy foreign currencies or gold -- at current exchange rates. The foreign debts are cancelled. Good so far.

But -- you have a 'little' problem. The new debt that you created. Where does it go? The annual budget? No! BC et al would be livid, as that would imply that it is the President's problem, and he just balanced his budget for the first time in 'X' years. So, you roll it over into the official national debt -- it has to go somewhere -- because this is a real debt.

My guess is that our official national debt will increase nearly 1 trillion dollars or so over the next two or three years.

Very disturbing thought, isn't it? We do not just have social security and entitlements to worry about. We have all those dollars in foreign countries which don't bother us at all right now. Just wait till they come home and all those foreign firms want something substantial in return for their dollars. Lets hope the US markets do well for a while longer, if you get my meaning. Good thing we have something of value -- all of those electronics and computer firms. Without the information revolution, the US would be in much worse shape than it is now.

Food for thought ----

(Fri May 08 1998 19:06 - ID#255284)
quack therapies --- duck shooting season downunder


re your quack therapies and gold, notice how it is good for addictions, like kitco?

Gold has been used in cases of depression, female reproductive function,
right and left brain disorders, physical coordination, skin diseases, burns,
headaches, poor circulation, tissue regeneration of the heart, pancreas,
spleen, and muscular structure and disorders of the nervous system. Gold
can stimulate the pineal and pituitary glands, improve absorption of
nutrients and enhance the body's biomolecular functions. It also
possesses remarkable flexibility-restoring properties associated with
physical motion.

Because of its ability to conduct energy so effectively, gold can stimulate
metabolic processes. It can influence the body's warmth mechanism,
particularly in cases of chills, heat flashes and night sweats. It has been
used as a treatment for alcoholic disorders, leading to a lessening of
craving for alcohol. Those suffering from drug, tobacco and food
addictions may benefit greatly from the unique effects of gold.

"Modern Medicine

Medical uses of gold include the treatment of arthritic, rheumatic, and
syphilitic disorders. It has proved to be beneficial in cases of tuberculosis,
multiple sclerosis, sexual dysfunction, spinal problems, discoid lupus,
glandular and nervous in-coordination, bronchial asthma, and certain
nerve-end operations. Gold has a direct effect on cells, especially those of
the brain and nerves, and possesses remarkable sedative properties,
without, however, impairing the power of the nerves to transmit impulses.
Gold is commonly used in medicine for bone implants, surgical
instruments, and acupuncture needles.

Colloidal Gold and Cancer

In a medical article written on inoperable cancer, Edward H. Ochsner,
M.D., B.S., F.A.C.S., Consulting Surgeon of Augustana Hospital,
reported that Colloidal Gold can have a significant inhibitory effect upon
cancer growths. His research found that it can help reduce the size of
tumors, alleviate pain, improve appetite and digestion, and increase
weight and strength. "


Am going to line up for my daily injection of gold, cure me of my kitco habit.

(Fri May 08 1998 19:06 - ID#26793)
An afterthought; the Fed started this market mania by feeding money to the banks at low interest rates during the S&L crisis. The savers couldn't get by on a 1.5% rate after years of 13% so they removed money from the banks and put it into stocks looking for a better return. Now that the mania is out of control and the S&L crisis has been papered over with 40 year notes they may have decided to induce savers to return money to the banks. Draining funds will force the banks to offer attractive rates to savers, remove money from stocks and reverse the process. Just a guess.

(Fri May 08 1998 19:11 - ID#194311) got it
it gets worse when you consider that in this environment the dollar will be losing value so the debt will be getting bigger as the problem gets worse...a lot like what happened to those debt ridden Asian countries Clinton, Rubin and all those other hypcritical yanks have been slagging off fop the last few months.

(Fri May 08 1998 19:30 - ID#26793)
Venezuela seeks to extend foreign debt to beyond 2008

(Fri May 08 1998 19:42 - ID#258142)
@Cyclist, 18:42
"The trend is down for the rest of the month"
My guess is: next Friday we will be close to 305. This is just a confirmation of message, Ive posted a few weeks ago

(Fri May 08 1998 19:42 - ID#254201)
Gold, Silver, SnP
A clearer picture is immerging for the direction of the metals in the short term. The failure of the metals to make any upward progress in this seasonally positive time frame is not a good omen. Spot gold needs a Friday close above 310 to get the trend turned see chart. A Friday close under 298 will very likely send gold down to 280. Late May and June tend to be corrective time frames for the PM's. Next week should provide some kind of rally. July Silver - sell any rally above 6.15 with a 6.30 stop. Objective 5.25-5.00. SnP if you are long from 1104 or lower sell out at 1135.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:03 - ID#228128)
APH - A question on your chart
Why do you draw the downtrend channel starting from the top of the upward gap that began the 95-96 rally. If you lower it to the bottom of the gap and adjust your upper trend channel so it is parallel you have the upper channel running from the peak of the 96 rally and also along the tops of the other upthrusts in the downtrend. This makes more sense to me. Are there specific reasons to draw the channels as you have as opposed to other possibilities such as the one I just mentioned? I'd like to hear your opinion on this.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:05 - ID#258142)
LIBERTY__A, 16:14
"Duisenberg, the designated president of the future European Central Bank, CHALLENGED Jacques Chirac, the French President, by saying he had not explicitly agreed to step down midway through his 8 year term."
As a matter of fact, this story is not over yet. Decision, taken last weekend has to be confirmed by European Parliament on May 13. There are plenty of skeptic parliamentarians who do not like compromise reached. Europarliament has three options:
1. Agree with deal made - in this case ECB immediately is a legal body
2. Give a "negative advise" - governments can fight against it
3. Do not give any advise at all. This is the most difficult situation - no advise - no ECB, governments have to come with some other solution. There are some people who want this way of development.
Regarding the statement, quoted above - I think Duisenberg simply try to save his own face and also faces of Dutch politicians, who agree with this deal. Similar statement was done by Dutch Minister of Finance.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:08 - ID#256326)
Eyeball analysis makes it look like a regression channel would run pretty much like APH's.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:11 - ID#434158)
@Donald, Draining funds will force the banks to offer attractive rates
The problem with this is that current interest rates on treasuries are close to historic highs if figured as per cent over inflation. Of course, that's inflation as measured by "CPI," I guess the actual rate could be higher. But if interest rates for bonds compete with dividends from stocks, as has traditionally been the case, bond rates today are high.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:12 - ID#339274)
Granted we are still in seasonal strength until the 15th of the month.
The price action has been disappointing in a benign timeframe that will
set us up for a downward probe with the real test to come in July.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:19 - ID#256326)
Despite my scepticism, gold did not totally blow the bullish Elliott wave possibility. The low yesterday meant that GCM8 retraced 68% of the second major leg up ( wave 1 of three? ) , but then bounced back. However, in coming down it made a 5 wave structure which means the waters will remain clouded as to whether it is wave "a" of 2 of three or the start of a new major leg down to new lows ( below January ) . Will report more later in weekend. And a good one to all!!!

(Fri May 08 1998 20:21 - ID#210114)
My lifestyle is fine; how about yours??

(Fri May 08 1998 20:27 - ID#26793)
@Gunga Din
Banks are paying passbook accounts only 1.5% around here and are lending the money out at 12% to 20% on credit card debt. They can afford to pay more. They may have no choice if the Fed drains enough.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:36 - ID#257148)
I don't seem to have the time for a lifestyle. Everyone seems to talk about this lifestyle thingee, so it must be important ICQ is really annoying me, that and an autumn 'flu bug that's quite unpleasant.

perhaps i should swallow some gold.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:40 - ID#228128)
Is this a rule of thumb in drawing channels ( i.e. draw channels that match the regression slope over the time period ) ?

(Fri May 08 1998 20:45 - ID#153102)
I agree with your fedflow analysis. The Fed intends to draw money out of the stock market by forcing the banks to attract deposits with high interest bearing CD's and by forcing the banks to divest themselves of stock portfolios. Combination of making CD's more competitive with market gains and reducing market gains by taking the bank money out of the stock market's liquidity pool.

(Fri May 08 1998 20:49 - ID#210114)
Hope you're feeling better. Unfortunatley last weeks POG fall hasn't done anyone's health any good.

I thought that once we had got to $US 313 we were in the clear but there seems to be a strong retracement back below $US300.

I sold of one third of my bullion to hedge my bets. ( Hence the Vulcan Central Bank post ) .

Hoping it goes up from here.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:00 - ID#256326)
No it is not at all necessary that trendlines be parallel to average price or regresssion lines or anything else. A trendline is a trendline. However, if two ( or more ) different ways of chanelling price trend coincide it tends to reinforce one's confidence.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:03 - ID#290118)
Yes - tolerant1's idea {17:02 post} of hanging a coin offer coupon on a bottle is great! Maybe do both. Put one of chas's 3 grain wafers {18:24 post} IN the bottle as immediate gratification and a teaser to get the buyer to order a larger coin. At current POG these little wafers would have about $2 in GOLD and add $3 {1$ premium for production & profit} to the price of a bottle of liquor, wine, spring water, coke, pepsi, OJ, etc. Put bigger wafers in more expensive bottles. This would not only increase the popularity of GOLD and drive up the POG but give plumbers a new revenue source. Maybe plumbers would pay YOU for the priviledge of cleaning out your sewer lines.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:08 - ID#153102)
I see you are starting to wake up to the fact debt is not benign. It is not theoretical. It is a real burden, a life sapping burden.

Now, go back and read the Declaration of Indpendence and when you get to the word "in a lien able", take note that a tax is a LIEN.

Have they not put a LIEN on your liberties ? Have they not put a LIEN on your pursuit of happiness ?

And what have they left you with title to ? Not land. Not a vehicle. Not your bank deposit. How about stock and bond certificates ?

(Fri May 08 1998 21:13 - ID#256326)
Long ago I inherited some patients who were being injected with colloidal gold for several different medical conditions. The stuff was pretty toxic and allergic rashes were very common. BUT there is a German ( who else? ) alcoholic drink ( Goldwasser? not sure ) which has gold particles in it. That might be a pleasanter route...

(Fri May 08 1998 21:24 - ID#290118)
Property Tax = Rent
You do not OWN your house, your seaside lot, your mountain cabin or ANY real estate. You RENT it from the government! If you do not pay your rent you get evicted! The only property that MIGHT be yours is what you can put on your back or load in your truck or boat and take with you. But you do not OWN the truck or boat - if you don't pay the annual RENT ( license and required insurance ) you may lose it too! Isn't life grand? GOLD though, is portable, easily concealed and eminently spendable - we hope.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Fri May 08 1998 21:28 - ID#432214)
Mainstreet & Gold
A Good Sign - My wife was in the bank yesterday and the man in front of her was asking questions at the info desk on how to buy gold bullion. Can he buy it through the bank, where to store it etc. He was about 40 and looked normal according to my wife. "Mr. Joe public"

A Bad Sign - My wife is an elementary school teacher in Vancouver B.C. Canada. Today a 6 year old kid brings a coin set to school for show and tell, with a letter from her mother explaining that this set is from 1967 and was a family gift etc, etc. My wife looks at the set and sees old tarnished silver coins and a 1 oz GOLD coin. The kid had been showing this around the school for the better part of the morning. My wife locks the coins set in her desk and tells the kids mother after school. This is an average family that are not obviously rich, I guess it was the $20.00 face value on the coin that confused the matter.

Go Gold

(Fri May 08 1998 21:34 - ID#57232)
Debt: private plus federal over 40 trillion US
mozel: What really irks me is that we all collectively are responsible to some degree for the 20 trillion or so federal debt ( official + entitlements ) and the 20 trillion or so private + corporate debt. But now it is clear that the 1.5 trillion in overseas US dollars is not part of this debt -- it hasn't even been accounted for. And this is because the US naively ( and arrogantly ) perceives itself the master of the financial world. Just as England before us. And, just as England before us around 1932 or 1933 ( not sure exactly ) the rest of the world will suddenly realize the US is bankrupt, and drop the US dollar for another currency, just like the pound Sterling. Unfortunately I see nothing ahead of us that will prevent the inevitable, eventually.

That 1.5 trillion may not look like much vs 40 trillion, but it is a highly liquid form of debt. And -- a run on US dollar reserves can occur any time there is a currency crisis anywhere in the world -- since dollars are the primary reserve currency everywhere. Everytime there is a major crisis somewhere , someone like AG must step in and put out the fire on our financial shores.

Are we going to keep doing this indefinitely until the day finally comes that the FED cannot put out the fire? Probably. This time we made it without interest rate turmoil. Barely, apparently.

If saner/wiser individuals were on the bridge, so to speak, we would phase out the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Then our risk for currency conflagration would be much less. Even then, I doubt we will ever get our debt situation under control, except the hard way. But at least we would have a fighting chance.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:38 - ID#225283)

I beleave the beverage refered to earlier is
GoldSCLAGER ( sic ) ...and the gold is actually golden
food colored "flakes" the urban myths refering to
real au have been cleverly planted by the
importers marketing dept.

Tonight is the final CBS network airing of the
wizard of OZ in the U.S.A.

OZ refers to an ounce of Gold.

I understand that the original novel was actually
a clever reference to monetary policy and a gold

Does anyone recall the coralation...or know of a
web site that goes into detail...I think I recall
some Grad student having an entire web site on
this subject.

I love the line where the Scarecrow responds to
Dorothy's question of "how can you talk without a
brain" ...something to the effect that he knows
lots of people that talk very much and considering
what they say ...they obviously are also without a

(Fri May 08 1998 21:41 - ID#256326)
I don't know if you go over there any more, but our mutual friend Humbullus Maximus at the other channel has worked up a supreme humcount for the US stock market into 23 June, including, just for you, a Lucas segment from yesterday. Some different cycles I work with confirm the humble1's work, fwiw.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:43 - ID#256326)
Golden flakes indeed...;- )

(Fri May 08 1998 21:46 - ID#153102)
If you want to live in a collective, go to a collectivist country where they have collective responsibility. I am not collectivized.
The guarantee we have is no tax on our rights to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness ( we negotiate from transaction to transaction in our pursuit of happiness ) .

(Fri May 08 1998 21:47 - ID#57232)
Lien on assets
mozel: Technically the only assets I have that I know no one has a lien on are the assets no one knows I have. Point well taken. All my other assets could be confiscated in the final throes of a bankrupt government. Gold would be what it would want the most during a serious financial crisis -- not real estate or paper money. Unfortunately any government acts like a living organism if it is given the opportunity to. And -- it will confiscate anything to maintain the illusions or deceptions it has generated for itself.

My main hope is that when the chips are down, the American people will defend themselves within our political system. I do not wish the alternative, but that is still better than a dictatorship.

We are collectively all to blame if our democracy has weakened to the point where grass roots political change is no longer effective. During the thirties, such things were tried in the US, and they failed. Let us hope that we are not following the way of Rome after Caesar. I would rather not be part of the sunset of US democracy, but rather part of an eventual rekindling of its flame. That is more important to me than traveling to the stars.

It is sites like Kitco that make me think that all is not yet lost.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:52 - ID#57232)
My collective is not your collective
mozel: You misunderstand me. There is more than one use of the word collective - not just the Communist one. Please see my later post, and you will understand. In a democracy, all individuals are 'collectively' responsible for their fate. In a dictatorship, only one. In a communist country, only the chosen few, as the collective by the communist definition is a lie -- there is no collective -- only the voice of the chosen few -- the commisars, or their equivalent.

(Fri May 08 1998 21:58 - ID#256326)
Speaking of bankrupt government,
at least the cash flow situation is improving, and debt--if ever so slightly--is being reduced. The three year notes are now history, for example. Since so many institutions rely upon government bonds to fund fixed future liabilities, there is talk of a short squeeze in US Treasury issues.
It is in truth the unfunded future liabilities of the US Gov't which are at issue, but if push comes to shove they can be repudiated or--same thing--inflated away at the proper time.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:00 - ID#411150)
.... JTF .....

You will become part of the collective

Resistance is futile

You will be assimalated

(Fri May 08 1998 22:02 - ID#39828)
The second wave from Asia!

(Fri May 08 1998 22:04 - ID#256326)
And in fact
it is against the inflating away that we want to own gold. It is ever so much cleaner and bloodless than actually seizing our wealth by force of arms. Through the miracle of ( not so ) modern inflation, they can have our cake and eat it too with not a single shot fired.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:05 - ID#31868)
Have a friend in a country other than the USA, send him a loan
once you liquidate your assets. Voila' your money is out of the country and perfectly legal.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:06 - ID#413109)
ZEKE- would you be good enough to furnish me with details as to time
and ways of storing. If you have any knowledge of water, please include.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:07 - ID#31868)
Reify - email came in, one question my friend,
what country are you in?

(Fri May 08 1998 22:08 - ID#153102)
Sorry, I hold to the Declaration of Independence which states plainly that government derives its just power from the consent of the governed to secure the rights of individuals to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness ( rights to property and the enjoyment of it ) . Now, if a majority or a commission or any other body of men can tax my rights by a vote, they are doing it under color of law contrary to the first and founding Statute of this nation, the Declaration of Independence.

We had a Democratic Socialist Revolution in this country under FDR.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:09 - ID#225283)
G S P Bug

Your tale of the school boy reminds me of a bad
experience I had many years ago during my freshman
year. I was living at the beach and a high school
friend had been kicked out of his parents house.My
roommates and I allowed him to stay at our beach
house free of charge. A few weeks later I noticed
that my silver coin box which I kept at the bottom of a sock drawer was missing several coins...idiot Bob had been "borrowing a few of the dollar coin to buy deli subs"...of course I never saw a dime.

An even more horrific thing happened when my Grandmother passed away. An alcoholic uncle that had been living with her at the time decided to cash in her coin collection including dozens St G's... his drinking buddy paid him 10X face value on most of the coins...can you imagine. This was only a few years ago.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:09 - ID#57232)
Latest stuff on xxxGate
All: What is new over the last few months is that the Republicans are publically clamoring for determining criminal activity in the numerous XX gate controversies, and now presidential immunity is know longer an option for presidential aides.

I'm sorry to say that I was wrong about Janet Reno. For at least one year she has done her best to impede Kenneth Starr's investigation. I think it is because she is afraid of losing her retirement for her medical condition -- Parkinson's, I think. Too bad the Republicans have no way of ensuring her retirement. Hard to believe they couldn't support her somehow. Unless, of course, the reasons for her actions are more complex than meets the eye. Either way, we don't have the strong firm leadership of the attorney general and the independent investigator of the Nixon era. And -- the apparent crimes committed are far worse than a relatively trivial breakin and coverup. In those days, a breakin was not considered trivial. Oh, for the good old days when good and bad were easier to spot.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:13 - ID#227238)
Collective responsibility.
JTF: Responsibilty for the massive debt of the US should be confined to that set of folks who have expected more and more from the govt without regard for how it was to be paid for. It does not include the millions of people who reside outside of that set. Nonetheless, I fear we shall all pay for the folly. The consequences are non-selective.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:14 - ID#153102)
I didn't misunderstand anything.
All collectives are the same at bottom.
The names are different; the titles of the officials are different; they have different badge designs; they have different models of firearms; these and all other differences are surface distinctions.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:26 - ID#256326)
Knowing that "they" and/or government
have stacked the deck against us, the wisest thing to do is to get revenge by making lots of money to keep us ahead of the socialist entropy curve. And yet I sense that many at this site have not seen their net worth grow but rather shrink during these past few golden years.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:27 - ID#225283)

THe loan scheme you allude to may in fact be very illegal unless certain conditions are met...

and it would most certainly preclude you from filing for bk for several years. At least under the current federal law...

The key is proper preplanning...

THe question is not if but when asset protection is neded most it is often to late

Off to see the Wizard...bbml

(Fri May 08 1998 22:28 - ID#342376)
I need to respond to you as I am an Acupuncturist. I love what I do. You seem to believe that people need to be warned about giving money to these quacks. I volunter my time once a week to visit an AIDS hospice. I have helped two people there begin to walk again after a debilitating condition of neuropathy. Nothing modern medicine offered them helped and after only a few treatments the pain was relieved. Another had nausea so badly, he lost 20 pounds. With one needle inserted in the appropriate place, it lifted in 10 minutes for the first time in months. Placebo? How about billions of people all over the world treated for centuries? Why does a dog that has arthritis, jump off a table with no apparent pain after a treatment? Does the dog know it's getting a treatment? I don't know where you live, but I invite you to come to my practice and receive acupuncture yourself. I don't want to waste more bandwidth, please e-mail me at Once again, people are sceptical of what they don't understand or have not experienced.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 22:32 - ID#384350)
Squirrel, Mozel et al, Private Property
You may wish to know that for the moment, one can own property in the Republic of Ireland without being liable for property taxes. You even get free water.

With the upcoming Union of Socialist States of Europe, this might not last forever, but for the moment you don't have to pay rent to the govt for supposedly buying property.

There are capital gains taxes on an eventual sale, also a purchase tax as well, 3-6% of the property. Death duties may also come into play.

I think that there is no property tax because early in this century, a large percentage of the Irish were tenant farmers to British Lords who ruled as colonial masters over the Emerald Isle.

Lest we forget.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:32 - ID#31868)
PrivateInvestor - planning is the key to the realm of futility that man labors over
called certainty. You can be assured that miles and miles of the governments luscious files will be filled out in quadruplicate.

Therein lies the answer. Get THEIR signatures on everything and I mean everything.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:33 - ID#153102)
Nobody is going to get or stay ahead of the socialist entropy curve.
The payment of interest on Notes for Nothing is to give you the comfort of the illusion that you can get ahead.
But your liabilities to the "collective" are increasing at a much faster rate than you are getting ahead.

If we don't own the land we stand on, in what sense is it our country ?

(Fri May 08 1998 22:34 - ID#153102)
Nobody is going to get or stay ahead of the socialist entropy curve.
The payment of interest on Notes for Nothing is to give you the comfort of the illusion that you can get ahead.
But your liabilities to the "collective" are increasing at a much faster rate than you are getting ahead.

If we don't own the land we stand on, in what sense is it our country ?

(Fri May 08 1998 22:35 - ID#57232)
Are you saying that there is no way to fix our current system?
mozel: There are many people who have read the constitution, and understand it. Are you saying that you see no solution within the system?

Perhaps you underestimate the average American. I am talking about rural America where the trade is mostly by barter, the independence of the North Dakotan farmer, the self sufficiency of the Mainer to solve problems with almost nothing except muscle and nature itself, the occupants of Salt Lake city who understand the meaning of self sufficiency, the Oregoner and Northern Californian with their love of natural wealth -- given just by being close to the great outdoors. All people who live there are wealthy, and many know it, even if they have no money. The shrimp boaters in New Jersey ( hope there are some left ) , and their compatriots in Coos Bay or Puget Sound.

I think you and I are still talking about two different things. I am still proud to be an American, even if I do have my doubts at times -- the greatest when I go to Toronto for the annual visit, and then go back to the US. Canada is of course far more socialistic than we are, but it still is a step back nearly 10-20 years when things were better in the US -- when you could walk at night in the Golden Gate Park or Central Park without fear of being attacked.

Think of the political surge behind Clinton, when his supporters thought that he -- as an unknown -- would be the breath of fresh air that we needed. Think of H Ross Perot's supporters, who for a time had a viable third party -- much stronger than the Libertarians.

I think all is not lost -- we just have lost our direction for a time. Underneath that quiet American exterior is a dynamo -- that could be unleashed under the right circumstances, and even our current government could not resist it. The power is in the people, but they must be willing to rise up and take the challenge. The Russian people are similar to us in some ways -- but they lack our rich democratic social memory. A severe handicap they must overcome before Russia will be transformed. They may not make it.

That is my version of the US constitution, even if it is more social and vague -- not couched in as precise and impressive legal terms as yours. My version is an attempt at being one for all Americans -- not a piece of paper, but a social memory. God help us if we lose that too.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:38 - ID#256326)
I was trained in traditional scientific medicine, but I have also seen many people helped by acupuncture, particularly in pain management. I have also seen people treated treated by acupuncture whose delay in getting appropriate scientific medical treatment cost them their lives.
I think that humility, wisdom, and a devotion to what's best for the patient is what really counts no matter what your angle is.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:40 - ID#254201)
Gold - Regression Channels
IDT - The trend line is actually a 1x1 Gann line drawn off of a significant pivot high. The angle of that slope will not vary no matter where it's placed on the chart for the life of that contract. Once a high or low is chosen a parallel 1x1 is drawn off another significant high or low. I now have a gann 1x1 channel. ( Same for 1x2, 1x4 etc. ) . If I draw a trend line across tops or bottoms and the degree of angle does not match the angle of a Gann line for that chart I tend to discount it's significance. Bottom line the metals and xau have about 5 more days then down. The enclosed chart has regression channels with 2 standard deviations.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:43 - ID#57232)
I agree with you
Earl: You are right, you and I are not really responsible for the massive debt in this country. No one in my family or relatives would ever have done this -- it is not part of our upbringing. We can from Alsace Lorraine 4 generations ago with few assets, and none of my family members that I know are up to their eyeballs in debt. I would guess that your family and relatives are like mine.

What I meant was that I and my ancestors should have been more outspoken.

I fear that mozel and I will be disagreeing for the rest of the night on the definition of one word that I should not have used. I hope the rest of my posts do not cause as much commotion. Hard to tell in advance what one word can do. Then the main point of the rest of the paragraph is lost.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:44 - ID#256326)
We are here for such a short time and don't get to pick in advance whether we live under Jefferson, Hitler, Marcus Aurelius, Stalin, or the Second Coming.
In priciple I am not against dying for a cause ( although I have yet to identify with one ) , but I prefer to be as comfortable and happy as possible, which money, good family, good health, and a good education help make possible.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:48 - ID#372400)
New Doubts
You say: Dollars are paper money. But you can buy the gold you love so much, so dollars are not only paper -- there is some gold in them, is it not?

If financial crisis will come, it will be a pretty slow process. Why?
Because so much is at stake, as many pointed out on this forum, that few are prepared to face the crisis, so denial will be ruling the party. So, there will be plenty of time to prepare, is it not?

By the way, price of red wheat droped sharply recently. So, is the excitement on this forum stirred up by some one pushing this stuff?

To Cuervo Central -- Guinness is good today. Gulp to thee.

To Donald and all folks following TA:
Dow/Gold looks illogical. Companies in Dow grow. Gold is the unchanging. So, it would be more logical to look at Dow Earnings/Gold or
Dow Dividents/Gold. I wish I had the data to create such indicators myself. If you can give me URL where I can get the data, I will do it and post the results.

The same conserns for XAU/Gold. What would be an excelllent indicator of
the gold market is Total Gold Reserves of XAU companies/Gold spot. The same "I wish I had the data..."

(Fri May 08 1998 22:49 - ID#153102)
Vague and social won't cut it.
They are not vague and social about their exactions on you.

Talking about our "demoncratic" this and that won't cut it.
You either stand for or against collectivist government.

Talking about fedflows and other Keynesian crap won't cut it.
You are either for the power of the purse, gold, in the hands of the people or you are aginst it.

Even a stout people can be brought low by a government that pursues a war policy against them to force them into dependence.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:49 - ID#256326)
I can't belive I forgot to include Gann angles among the various chanelling methods. The more of them which concur, the better the confidence level.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:51 - ID#31868)
Thomas - and...a hearty
gulp of Cuervo back at ya. I was amazed at the red wheat links I found!!!

(Fri May 08 1998 22:52 - ID#342376)
@ Aurophile
Thank you and I agree with you. Anybody that sees me needs to have been to a Medical Doctor for a diagnosis. I do not diagnose. My aim is only to help the quality of life. There is room for both of us.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:55 - ID#57232)
Modern medicine
aurophile: I have much exposure to medicine through my family, and know that while modern medicine has much to be said for it, it has become much too focused on the use of medicines that are mass produced by the pharmaceutical industry. The mere cost of introducing a new medicine encourages minor modifications of existing ones, rather than the more expensive approach of looking for new ones. Coenzyme Q, which may work better than some prescription heart medicines, is not popular among the large pharmaceutical firms because they cannot make money selling it. Also, most MD's know almost nothing about nutrition. Now their patients are educating them. I think that within 10 years of so, a balance will be met where certain 'health foods' will be accepted by the mainstream medical profession, and the more questionable health foods will fall by the wayside. The internet is also revolutionizing the rate of knowledge dissemination of new 'alternative medicines' and forcing MD's to publish their success rates, for esxample I just heard about pulbic comparison invitro fertilization programs. I know little about acupuncture, except what I have learned from friends. But -- it does work or the Chinese could not do major abdominal surgery with it.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 08 1998 22:58 - ID#384350)
I don't live in the USofA. Send money, Please.

Silver or Gold coins preferred.

(Fri May 08 1998 22:58 - ID#57232)
G' Nite all! My fingers are getting sore
Goodnight everyone.

Mozel: do we understand each other any better? I hope so, because I suspect there really is little difference in out opinions. Mostly semantics. Your America and mine would still be a great improvement over the current one.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:03 - ID#256326)
Yep, just don't throw out the baby with the bath water.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:13 - ID#57232)
I saw your 22:49
mozel: Your 22:49 leaves no room for the Human factor. Your definition of the Constitution is an empty one. You will have no support for something that is defined just for a lawyer. Even the Constituion - the way I read it -- was not written for lawyers. It was written for Americans.

I agree with you that carefully chosen words are needed for something such as the Constitution. But the spirit of the American Constitution is much more than just a piece of paper. There are hundreds of years of history behind it, maybe as much as a thousand.

For example, other countries have Constitutions written based on our Constitution. But -- without the unique mixture of human values passed on in our culture -- those pieces of paper have no real value.

If you are correct that everything is in that piece of paper, you should be able to go to Japan, Russia, or North Korea, and convince them that all they need to do is read that little piece of paper and set up a democratic government like the ideal one you and I speak of. I challenge you to try that.

I maintain that our Constitution is the fruition of generations of social history, reaching back to English law and the Magna Carta, as well as other aspects of our rich history that you know better than I. I am only a physicist.

America did not happen just with the creation of a piece of paper. That paper is precious to me because it sympbolizes much more than just the words or the parchment, but the spirit of the American people.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:13 - ID#413109)
JTF Please email
JTF- Alsace-Lorraine- I knew her long ago, and have fond memories.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:16 - ID#426220)

For those Connoisseurs of very fine liquors, Goldschlger is par excellence! It is from Switzerand and is very sweet. Trust me, you never want a hang0ver from it! However, doing it a la Flambe over vanilla ice-creame is a treat of kings. And BTW the gold flakes are indeed 24-K gold flakes. Only the Swiss with their Franc 100% backed by GOLD could have thought of this. A good price is $20-$22 a bottle.

I recommend it to all... it builds confidence ( :- ) )

(Fri May 08 1998 23:21 - ID#434137)
Webster Hubbell not guilty???

trader ed
(Fri May 08 1998 23:21 - ID#373349)
APH, your 22:40 post concerning the XAU and gold
Using a completely different approach, I tend to agree with you that the XAU and gold will go down very soon. My timeline is a few days longer than yours however.
My target for the brief move up in June gold is the 315 to 317 area before moving down to around 275 to 280. My target for the XAU is a move up of about six to eight per cent from the present levels.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:22 - ID#267344)
Tolerant1, Miro, PH in LA
If you decide to meet for a sailing venture, please be certain to get through the canal well before y2k. I suggest we meet in Equador or the Galapagos Islands in early November. We could celebrate y2k on Easter Island. I am heading to Sidney for the y2k Olympics, the following October. Are any of you game?
- c

(Fri May 08 1998 23:23 - ID#153102)
@JTF @aurophile
JTF I can only conclude that you do not comprehend that a word has the weight of a number and even more weight when it is a word of law. There is no my America in my conception. The founders of this nation originated America.

@aurophile I foretell you will one day be as those described by SDRer, begging them.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:25 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
aurophile: I agree. Molecular biology is great. Can't wait until the early successes with immunotherapy really start to snowball. Also those secret weapons with ricin on one end and a homing molecule on the other. Bone marrow transplant and organ transplant procedures are now technically routine. If we could only modulate the immune system better.

I do think more emphasis must be made on preventive medicine, and less heroics on the last year or two of life. If I had a terminal illness, I would not want the massive heroics, as I would not want my family reduced to poverty. Preventive medicine wisely chosen would probably add 10-20 years to our life expectancy, and inexpensively. Of course the public must be ready to follow the advice of their doctors. Took nearly forever -- over 30years -- for the public to realize that smoking was dangerous. Alcohol so far is still not given much serious attention.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:28 - ID#57232)
Your 23:23
mozel: Words have no value or weight unless the person who reads them is willing to abide by them. Please think about that.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:29 - ID#31868)
Gianni - a blantant plea - what? clone - this idea does have merit. I shall think
on this and let you know. Although once in the Keys I am difficult to pry out of the digs theres.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:29 - ID#411150)
..... Mozel .....

"You do not comprehend" seems to be your favored phrase.

Or its gentle cousin, "You do not understand".

Many here suffer that malady, yes?


(Fri May 08 1998 23:33 - ID#31868)
sailors - HEY YO!!!

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri May 08 1998 23:34 - ID#284177)
Dividends from the Federal Reserve

(Fri May 08 1998 23:43 - ID#267344)
sorry, I intentionally do not own a television. ABC - no can do.
- c

(Fri May 08 1998 23:45 - ID#411150)
..... Clone .....

We shall take up a collection to save you from your intentions


(Fri May 08 1998 23:47 - ID#373403)
FOMC Beige Book out. This is from the Chicago Fed office. Interest rates will be raised.
Labor Markets

The District's labor markets tightened further in March and April, and upward wage pressures continued to mount. The five-state average unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in March, nearly a full percentage point below the national average. Employment growth in the region remained below the national average in the first thee months of 1998, but demand for workers in the Midwest is as strong as, if not stronger than, the nation. Help-wanted advertising, hiring plans surveys, and the
employment components of purchasing managers' surveys suggested that demand for labor remained very strong, and contacts throughout the region continued to report broad-based worker shortages. Due to space limitations, a career expo and jobs fair for high school students in the
Chicago metro area had to turn away 25 percent of the 200 plus companies that wanted to participate, a first in the event's short history. One Michigan employer summed up the conditions in most of the District, stating that "we will continue to hire as qualified workers apply." Information technology ( IT ) and construction workers were, as in our last report, most often cited as being in short supply. In Wisconsin, employers were reported to be "stealing" IT workers from other companies, a trend that was driving up wages in those occupations. The strength in the new home market exacerbated shortages of skilled construction workers. Reports of broad-based wage gains were more frequent, with one contact noting that there was "creeping wage inflation, ( but ) nothing

(Fri May 08 1998 23:50 - ID#31868)
clone - bummer -
The Whitbread and the people who sail in it...

(Fri May 08 1998 23:50 - ID#31876)
If You Culled All of the News This Week, Sure Would be Hard to Top This One

(Fri May 08 1998 23:52 - ID#267344)
Uh oh - watch out! That "collect" word seems to confront heavy opposition on this forum!
Will I be assimilated?
- c

(Fri May 08 1998 23:52 - ID#57232)
XXX Gate: Newt Gingrich causes an 'uproar' (again)
All: Either Newt G is committing political suicide or he knows something. News like this will eventually be very bullish for gold -- if he can keep this up.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:55 - ID#153102)
Each of us comprehends, brings within our mind, variously, depending on our life experience, including study. When people see matters differently, there is no mutual overlap of their separate comprehensions. But, by conversation we can increase our separate comprehensions.


I am reflecting on those words which I can freely choose to abide by and those which I cannot, as JTF suggested.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:58 - ID#31868)
Life is simple,
people complicate it...GO GOLD!!! GET CAMDESUSS!!!

(Fri May 08 1998 23:58 - ID#255284)
reading the pulses is not bean-counting

Thank you, I shall email hum1 to see how Lucas is. Especially as I see a gold spike down within that timeframe.

I'm not feeling the best but am provoked to post on the acupuncture thread. Acupuncture is system of medicine that can be traced thousands of years, developed by scientific trial and error and used by more than half of humanity for all of written history, new points are still being discovered. I like to remind western doctors that until some 250 years ago, western medicine believed blood ebbed and flowed, doctors used leaches and trephining for goodness sake into this century, when such barbarism was replaced by lobotomy and ECT.

What about the way in which W Medicine began using lobotomies? A chance remark in a seminar presenting by Jacosen & Fulton in 1935 the results of chimpanzee experiments into learning. One of the chimps, Becky was temperatmental and easily became distressed. "We found that after we lobotomised one chimp, she was much less aggressive and amenable to our experiments." "Could that work with humans?" asked a participant, Egas Moniz, a Portugues neuorphysicist. "Quite likely," was the response. And so W Medicine lurches into more butchery.

You have I think, gone to the heart of the matter, the physician is ultimately important to healing. The physician must be 'fit' to treat someone who is not well. That wellness will move from physician to patient, so the physician must keep in top order.
When I asked my friend and acupuncturist how to find a good acupuncturist when I left our town, he recommended I ask this question, "Can acupuncture kill me?" If the acupuncturist says no, leave immediately.

Acupuncture, particularly when rendered unobtrusive with micromassage, is most efficacious, especially for those who develop Ki or Chi through martial arts.

That acupuncture just happens to have a documented history 5-10 times longer than W Medicine adds to my respect for this science.

I am not suggesting exclusive medicine, but rather inclusive. Each system has its strengths, we are all fortunate indeed to have so many human cultures alive still....

Oh yes, use golden needles if you need to use needles at all.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:59 - ID#57232)
Best news post of the day. G'Nite all for real -- I'm pooped!
Leland: Looks like you caught a big one. Could the Japan pessimists be underestimating how big Japan's debt problems are? If this is true, how far out into the great blue Pacific will the suction go? All the way to Hawaii?

All: This post needs all the analysis our Kitco sleuths can give it. We are talking about the 4th largest economy in the world. Could it be that all of those purported Japanese savings are about to run out? Disturbing thought.

(Fri May 08 1998 23:59 - ID#411150)
..... ABC = As Before Clone .....

No, friend Clone

You tend to think the next thought

You stand alone and tall

And are welcome here

No assimilation you

You join us of your own will

May gold have mercy on your soul

So it is written

So let it be done