Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon May 11 1998 00:02 - ID#290118)
To Tolerant1 and others who follow him, sharefin and Disney
Thank you again for your compliments re: my post of Sun May 10 1998 23:17. I felt a reality check was order before another week of drunken revelry and golden showers begins.
Good Luck and Fortune!
May You Live Long and Prosper!

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 00:14 - ID#24135)

After issuing shares for money

company assets have risen by amount

paid for shares .. to ME thats

not dilution .. ( I prefer it to

borrowing generally. ) Cash is not

used for directors to throw tea

party but to acquire new assets.

Issuing stock dividends IS

dilution ( to me ) , as company asset

base is not increased as shares

are issued .

Coverting preferred stock to

common stock is obviously not

dilution ( to me ) .

Issuing stock options at a

stike price twice where stock

ia trading is not dilution ( to

me )

Deep have VERY few shares

outstanding 39 mill versus

lihir ( say ) at 900 mill or

ABX ( say ) at 373 mill.

Deeps issued new stock when

they absorbed Blyvoor and Buffels.

Do you believe that their stock

was diluted as they gained

reserves and capacity per share??

Please answer that question.


respectfully suggest that you

Never buy any Dbn Deep, and

dont bother to ask any more

questions about it .. Buy

something else like ABX for

example .. or microsoft. Be

happy ..

IF your answer is NO then you

are beginning to understand.

Remember Deeps has risen 2.5 time

since stock was "diluted" by your

definition. Assume you did not buy


Subject is closed ( for me ) .

I am buying DD prefs. I have no

common stock until conversion.

I have some options. That is


Im not "selling" deeps to you

or anyone. I dont care what you

or anyone does really. This is

after all a zero sum game. Good


John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 00:17 - ID#24135)
Kinky !
Golden showers ?? My goodness ..
What a party

(Mon May 11 1998 00:21 - ID#31868)
John Disney - ah man, you beat me to it!!! By the way, there was nothing diluted
in your post on dilution. Nothing at all...

(Mon May 11 1998 00:22 - ID#339212)
TO: LORD DISNEY, re: Dilution

I got into a similar debate about "dilution" on the Yahoo SSC
msg board.

Most people do not differentiate between share vs price
dilution. Issuing more shares is "share dilution", however,
if the raised money is counted as assets this does not result
in stock "price dilution". For example, paying long term debt
with issued shares, or financing another mine development,
will not affect the price of the stock. I agree with you.

Share dilution does not necessarily imply price dilution.

(Mon May 11 1998 00:24 - ID#224149)
Logic = Fuddle Duddle
The Logical explanation for market movement died in the early nineties When the markets Gold or otherwise fall from their pyramid advances and common sense prevails Everybody will be sterile in many ways especially in thought ---Away to the other cosmos

(Mon May 11 1998 00:26 - ID#215379)
Paths cross
The path to everlasting life is narrow and cramped, but the path to death is wide and easy to follow

(Mon May 11 1998 00:27 - ID#372400)
Spock's predictions -- Oh.oh.ohhh!
If I am mistaken -- my apology beforehands. Last December someone with name Dr.Spock was posting messages on SI ASND forum -- that ASND will tank etc. ASND went from 23 to 43 since then. Is it not the sign of gold bull that a doomster from investment forums start posting about gold tanking?

(Mon May 11 1998 00:28 - ID#233199)
Instead of being scared Gold was going to tank I was excited by the strengths in

the mining shares. Now, I think Gold will probably drop some more, the ECB will announce nothing until June. I think I sleep better "long".

About dilution, there is a difference between "value" and "dilution". Yes Dbn Deep is a better and better "value" but when I look at *percentage* of assets per share that's dilution, when I look at value per share that's appeciation.

And isn't "dilution" defined ( In N. Am at least ) by the number of "authourized" shares as opposed to the number issued? That's a real question by the way...

Dbn Deep is my rock...... ship? dream? hope? Whatever ... it seems a good deal to me, I hope the world catches on.

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 00:51 - ID#24135)
Hey wait a minute
you said ..
"but when I look at *percentage* of assets
per share that's dilution,"
... Now I understand "assets per share ( in $ for
example ) " but I do not have the foggiest idea
what "*percentage* of assets per share"
I think this may be is an abstraction that
has in some way gotten out of control.

(Mon May 11 1998 00:54 - ID#240316)
Dilution = Fewer Oz of gold per share (even if there is more $/share)?
Aren't we buying gold, not cash?

(Mon May 11 1998 00:57 - ID#228128)
John Disney_A
John: You assume wrong. I own a substantial amount of Durban Deep and am trying to make my mind up as to purchase more or purchase Harmony. I understand the difference between share dilution and share price dilution. All I'm trying to figure out is how many shares will be issued by both companies so that I can decide how that lines up with assets etc. Its hard to figure out share value without knowing share number, agreed?

(Mon May 11 1998 00:57 - ID#255267)
@It's just some old silver
I had to travel to Scottsdale this weekend and on my way back I stopped at a yard sale in Ajo, AZ.
I made my way through the rows of junk until I saw two silver bowls. One looked like it was for nuts or candy and the other was larger and more ornate.
They were both tarnished but without dents or scratches. On the bottom they were both engraved by the Oneida Company. I asked the woman how much they were.
She said "they're just old silver bowls, not worth much, the little one is 75 cents and the bigger one is a dollar".
I bought both and happily departed.

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 01:00 - ID#24135)
advice to the lovelorn ..
As sweet as Dbn deep may be ... DONT
fall in love with it .. dont marry it..
dont have kids..
If gold comes off say by end June
will come down like everything else.
Im buying DD too but preferreds .. that
convert attractively by end MAY .. after
that .. I may sell and go away for a
I really am not enjoying the gold
market now. That "rally" on friday just
filled a little gap.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:01 - ID#287223)
OLDMAN:... and, who is Rubin's boss?

(Mon May 11 1998 01:02 - ID#153102)
@Great Satan
In the news yesterday I saw a report that a Roman Catholic Bishop in Pakistan had committed suicide in protest of a death sentence passed on a Christian for speaking in defense of Salman Rushde. Apparently, speaking in defense of Rushde, who wrote The Satanic Verses, is blasphemy in Islamic Pakistan. About 200 Christians are currently imprisoned under sentence of death for this or some other blasphemy of Islam in Pakistan. The accused person's mother was quoted as saying the charge was trumped up by people who wanted the family's land. Not too many people know it, but land was also a central, if underground, issue in the Salem Witch Trials in colonial Massachusetts during which about sixty people, I think, were hung. Boston Common was later the scene of the hanging of two Quakers for the crime of being Quakers in Boston.

Government is accepted among mankind to perform the function of arresting the criminal, of stopping the course of criminal behavior, whether its origin is domestic or external. Of perpetual importance to government, then, is to know what is criminal. The social sense of criminal originates outside government and a government out of step with the governed's sense of criminal loses credibility, authority, legitimacy, and finally power. It becomes the Great Satan.

The social sense of criminal originated first in religions. All religions are about the society's and the individual's relationship to unseen powers greater than ourselves. By the nineteenth century the predictive demonstrations of Science began to contend in the West as a source of explanation for our relationship to the unseen powers operating in Nature. Feelings once reserved for revealed religion were aroused in parts of society in reverance and respect for the accomplishments and power of Science. These converged with a revival of Christian collectivist doctrine and social conscience doctine. And a sense arose that denying the many the benefits of collective government directed according to science was criminal. The political movement for this new sense of criminal was socialism. New governments were established in Eur-Asia to enforce this new sense of criminal, which encompassed all offenses against the collective. In America a new government to enforce this new sense of criminal was legislated into being by FDR, his " ( Scientific ) Brain Trust", and the New Deal Congresses. The same was done in the States as they joined the federal co-operative. This development was known as Corporatism.

The most criminal act has ever been attempted overthrow of government. And the desire to have the advantages of the force of law protecting commercial interests has also often been a source of criminal law. Empire is nothing more than government protecting commercial interests with criminal law and enforcement. Finally, government has ever assumed a duty to protect the religious origin of the local sense of criminal. This was so under the common-law in which the King was also Defender of the Faith. In officially irreligious collectivist countries, varying from the party line was criminal blasphemy. Violating politically correct speech guidelines is currently criminal blasphemy against the multi-cultural, socialist New World Order. Many of the same people who think the Pakistanis are barbaric support hate speech crime laws. But, regulation of speech violates the most widely shared sense of right and wrong in America.

Jefferson regarded the Virginia Statute of Religious Liberty as a great accomplishment. It was for protection of Judeo-Christian liberty of religion only. Protection for religious liberty was later put in the federal Bill of Rights. Under the power in the 14th Amendment, the federal courts have adopted a decision rule which essentially divorces religion from government. The extension of this rule into the states has been most welcome to more secular people and less welcome to less secular people. Objectively, it has opened an ever-widening gap between the social sense of right and wrong of religious adherents and the government's legal definition of what is right and wrong. Awareness of the moral and legal significance of gold and silver coin as payment is increasing among religious adherents.

The prevailing opinion in America is that politics is a nasty waste of time.
There is a large constituency for the proposition that government ought to leave people alone if they are not harming others. This, a tacit law for many, is a mute desire for the common-law legal environment of the not too distant past. The more political law overlays common-law in the States, the more a gap opens between the government's legal definition of criminal and the sense of what is criminal of these people. This gap cannot be closed without restoring gold and silver coin as payment.

Jeil has stated the Constitution is a failed document. But, actually it seems to me it has succeeded very well in its primary purposes, which were to establish a government for a continent of States and for commercial empire. But, the pre-conditions for its failure now exist.

The dominant, all pervasive form of organization in modern America is the amoral corporation with no constitutency for truth in it. It broadcasts to us, employs us, sells to us, does good for us, even preaches to us. Industrial corporations, commercial corporations, media corporations, and non-profit corporations. Churches are even incorporated in many States. They operate with corporate conscience and corporate responsibility. Even individuals have corporate or "aritificial person" status which they have been shystered into. Virtually every American is mostly governed, socially and legally, directly and indirectly, by law for corporations. American government is of, by, and for corporations. And virtually every appearance in court is by attorney. The life of dependence in this new environment conflicts with the primal American social value of independence. Only gold can resolve this conflict.

The Federal Reserve System and the New Deal corporatism legislation were necessary so the federal government could continue to exist and govern in bankruptcy, borrowing on its credit. Corporations can operate in bankruptcy. Since no corporations are capitalized ( capitalization with notes being impossible ) , they exist in a form of unchaptered bankruptcy. On a personal level, an "artificial person" in bankruptcy appears in the law in forma pauperous. He has no property rights except liberty. As Americans begin to understand that they own no land and no car and that their stocka and bond certificates are the issue of uncapitalized corporations, they will discover what it means to have no property rights except liberty. Because they are living a fiction of work and competition in enterprise to own things, a gap will open between their legal status in forma pauperis and their sense of right and wrong. Only gold can close this gap.

Acceptance of dishonored Federal Reserve Notes for Nothing is vital to the bankrupt federal American government's continued existence and ability to govern. Repatriation of overseas greenbacks is a coming storm of debt due. It will expose the existence of the international gold standard and the unreliability of the United States Government's promises. Word travels fast in unsettled times. For all but the well-schooled at law. access to the common-law legal environment in which government leaves people alone will require gold and silver coin. To own land, the debt must be paid for in gold by a man. Allodial title cannot be obtained by an "artificial person" discharging an obligation using legal tender notes for nothing. Gold and silver coin in the hands of the people as money is a sine qua non to reconcile the social sense of right and wrong of most Americans with the legal definition of right and wrong by which they are governed. Eighty-five per cent of Americans feel government is out of control. Only gold can bring it back under their control. The political metal is going to be at the center of the coming political storm in These United States. This is not a short term prediction, but not one for the far future either. The Bell, Book, and Candle needed to exorcise the demons from demoncracy is Gold, the nemesis of Great Satan.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:04 - ID#255267)
Isn't dilution a function of assets? If you have 100 shares and $100 in assets the you have a value of $1/share. If you issue more stock in exchange for more assets lets say 100 more shares for $100 more assets than your value of $1/ share still exists. What has been diluted?

(Mon May 11 1998 01:05 - ID#233199)
@John Disney


John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 01:09 - ID#24135)
simple assumption
with BOTH harmony and Deeps
I would assume BOTH will add
what assets they CAN that will
be in line with their OWN
assets per share base .. otherwise
they wont add the asset and wont
expand the share base. They are
lucky to be able to do this.
The stuff they are looking at
so under valued its stupid.
However, one of the reasons I
sold Harmony was because I felt
the market would be confused by
the share increase .. not comprehend
it.. and mark the stock down. The
other was Im too invested in gold
and do not like the action..nor
platinum .

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 01:12 - ID#24135)
you got it mate
Aztec ..
Outstanding and a box of cigars..

(Mon May 11 1998 01:14 - ID#255267)
Has leaky nasty been behaving?

(Mon May 11 1998 01:14 - ID#401460)
Savage - Rubin's Boss

His Clients and Partners @ Goldman Sachs and their partners - the Rockefellers for one.


(Mon May 11 1998 01:20 - ID#252127)

There ain't no other ways about it.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:20 - ID#228128)
John Disney_A
I agree in principal to your other post not to fall in love with gold stocks right now. I'm looking out towards the summer to purchase and want to get an early start on how to allocate assets. In the mean time I hope that we get a decent bounce in order to take some profits and wait or perhaps go short. Perhaps by summer a clearer picture will emerge on where the two comanies are heading.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:30 - ID#339212)
S. KOREA getting hit again, down 3.2%

(Mon May 11 1998 01:30 - ID#255267)
If you are referring to the dilution issue I believe you are misled.
There is no money.
Stock for assets.
Shares for reserves.
No Money.
Just Shares.
Just reserves.
It is just a shell game, moving bets from one side to the other.
If value of assets goes up, stock goes up, you win.
If not, you go back to work.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:38 - ID#224149)
Personal unconscious part of the collective thought
Mozel  Individual conscious thought reflect only ego in a longitudinal universe .I certainly hope the collective unconscious ( All mankind connected ) find the spiritual answers---- not the Golden Calf History has proven Greed destroys Let Gold fall to the lowest of denominators as the world expands and breathes for all souls. Life is not perfect but Gold will never make it better ---Away for some understanding.

(Mon May 11 1998 01:42 - ID#255267)
Spoke with the wife in NY this eve and boy was she pissed when I told her it was 90 with a cool southerly breeze off the water in Mexico.
What the hell is the deal with gold these days?
Did you see CAU at 94 cents?
They just announced an 11 mil profit in closing their hedge books.
Retired 9 mil in debt.
I wonder who CAU's bride will be for the new mine?
Harmony and TVX took the POG downturn like a champ.
Rangy ran away like but then saw the light and came back to fight.
But the most important question is will McGuire or Junior hit 63 Taters?

(Mon May 11 1998 01:47 - ID#252127)
Aztec; I'm trying to follow your thoughts

A company has to produce. If it fails with 10 million or 20 million shares and the assets are the same, the per share losses with 10 million shares are more than if it had 20 million shares.
But the hopes for a company with 20 million shares are much less and market price is built on investor hope.

(Mon May 11 1998 02:06 - ID#253228)
Squirrel, I'll have you know I am not a loose member of a religious sect! (canon)
So, what part of what I said did you take personally? It is my experience that people discussing issues usually address the issues and only bring in words like ignorant and loose cannon when there is something that has hooked them emotionally.

On the issue:

I think others, more studious that I, have reached some rather negative conclusions about the U.S. Constitution. Some fellow named Spooner back in the mid 1800's put it in a way that I liked. He said something to the effect that either it was intended to reach its then result in which case it was an evil document, or it was not intend to do so, in which case it was an incompetent document. And that was after as subantial number of people were killed for wanting to escape the tyrany of the government that the Constitution created. So what has improved since then from the gang in Washington. Aren't the founders, as its creators, in part responsible for what this government is?

As for the character of the founding fathers, of course there was a spectrum. Probably some of the better thinkers of the day were Patrick Henry and George Mason. Don't forget that the framers were repersentatives of state governments. This in itself speakes much about their view of the world. They were hardly anarchists, and probably many were not even libertarian in their views. Thomas Jefferson himself, in spite of his more noted libertarian thoughts, was an advocate of public funding of education. Jefferson held contempt for Patrick Henry. George Washington in addition to being of questionable sanity because of the effects of his sugar addiction on his brain, was also in favor of an aristrocratic government. Ben Franklin was Mr. Collectivist himself being involved much in "community" undertakings. As for Mr. Hamilton, in addition to his infidelity problems, was just a parrot of the thoughts of others, probably never having an original political thought of his own ( sort of like our present Billy Bob Clinton ) . Of course the biographers of these men no doubt had a slanted view as we all do. Nevertheless, what I saw when I looked through their eyes was not the mandy/pandy history book view. These men had both good and bad traits. This does not change the fact of life that government is an engine of plunder. It has always been so. I stand by my assessment that those attracted to governemnt, both past and present, suffer a personality misdevelopment that prevents them from seeing themselves as separate individuals. I know they do not know where they end and I begin because I continuously find them with their hands in my pockets.

(Mon May 11 1998 02:08 - ID#280222)
HIGHRISE: Thank you. ,,and who is the Rockefellers' boss?

(Mon May 11 1998 02:16 - ID#39828)
The sort of left field event we can expect. sharefin, hope your son gets home quick.
Monday 11 May, 1998 ( 2:54pm AEST )

Indonesian officials say the death toll from an outbreak of
dengue fever has risen close to 800, with more than
32-thousand others affected by the disease.

Health officials say the outbreak has been noted in 12 of
Indonesia's 27 provinces, with reports that hospitals in some
provinces are suffering acute blood shortages.

In the capital, Jakarta, the fever has killed at least 78 people
since its outbreak early this year, while nearly 10-thousand
have been infected.

It's feared the number of deaths will increase sharply as
hospitals are flooded with new patients, many of them in
critical condition.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Mon May 11 15:00:01 1998 ( AEST )

AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time

(Mon May 11 1998 02:16 - ID#153102)
Lest anyone mistake my views, I just want to say that action at law for a patriotic American today primarily serves vital educational purposes. With some education in law you will actually perceive the two sided meaning in the speech of the two faced lawyers in office. It prepares you to separate the political wheat from the chafe. It makes your thinking about government, power, and law sharper and more realistic. It's also in your personal self-interest.

No significant reform or change is going to come about from action at law alone. But, it delays them and buys time for developing awareness among the people at large.

(Mon May 11 1998 02:21 - ID#255267)
This is a basic idea.
For a better example of this idea check out J Disney's & Vronskys posts from last week about RANGY in regards to it's NAV. I cant remember the date, maybe someone can post it for you.

Good Luck

(Mon May 11 1998 02:34 - ID#153102)
Hope your boy gets home safe.
Enjoyed your Dad's Garden of Eden poem. Considering all that was posted that evening about words, I was surprised no one posted, "And God said, ..." or "In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God."

(Mon May 11 1998 02:40 - ID#401460)
Savage The Boss



(Mon May 11 1998 02:43 - ID#257148)
chas / Silverbaron

Thnaks for the site and the tips. I am making further investigations here. And am looking at a UK assaying kit. Most people/jewellers I speak to say, "you can just tell, it feels right." I've listened to traders tell me instructive stories about what to look for in links, and where to look. Trouble is I saw some chains that were 18kt plated over some dense metal, so the weight was deceptively heavy. While I've handled quite a lot of gold, I don't believe, yet, that I can tell, just be the feel. So, I shall try science, until the art flourishes.

Thanks again.

(Mon May 11 1998 02:46 - ID#22584)
Brit Op-ed: Not happy with ECB
registration required

Notice the statement that says that the Bank Of England now operates under IMF guidelines but the ECB will not.

"In all these respects, EMU will represent a giant step back
from the accountability, transparency and, ultimately, the
democratic legitimacy of the new British system, which is
now serving as a model for the global code of practice
proposed by the International Monetary Fund."


Duisenberg makes a bad start to EMU
Europe's monetary union has not even formally begun, but
already its total incompatibility with democratic principles as
they are understood in Britain is becoming clear. In
testimony presented to the European Parliament, Wim
Duisenberg, the President-elect of the European Central
Bank, and its five other directors have set out their
proposed methods for the conduct of monetary policy in
Europe. These have about as much in common with the
political principles espoused by the British Government as
the concepts of "democracy" practised in the former Soviet
Union had with Westminster's parliamentary procedures.

On two crucial principles, in particular, the new
management of the ECB and the British Government are
absolutely at odds - and will remain implacably opposed,
despite Tony Blair's breezy assurance that there are no
longer any "constitutional objections" to British membership
of EMU. These principles are, first, that central bankers
should be clearly accountable for their decisions to
democratically elected political bodies and, secondly, that
the central bank's operations and objectives should be
sufficiently transparent to allow its managers to be held to

In Britain, these basic requirements for democratic
policymaking have continued to be met in several ways,
even after the Government's decision to hand over
responsibility for interest rates from the Chancellor to the
Bank of England. The Bank has had an explicit inflation
objective set by Parliament. It is required to publish a
quarterly Inflation Report, assessing the prospects for
meeting the target over two years. And most importantly, it
is required by law to publish promptly the detailed minutes
of its monthly meetings, presenting the arguments made for
and against monetary actions and reporting the nine
members' votes.

In all these respects, EMU will represent a giant step back
from the accountability, transparency and, ultimately, the
democratic legitimacy of the new British system, which is
now serving as a model for the global code of practice
proposed by the International Monetary Fund. Mr
Duisenberg says that the ECB will choose its own targets
and may not even disclose what they are. Most importantly,
it will publish no minutes and will never disclose how its
directors voted. More precisely, such information may be
disclosed after a minimum of 16 years, as Mr Duisenberg
noted in what passed for a drily humorous remark.

The ECB's main argument for withholding from the people
of Europe any explanation for the actions of their central
bankers was staggering in its combination of arrogance and
political naivety. If national central bankers revealed the
way they voted on the ECB Council, they might be subject
to political pressure when they returned home. They might
even face embarrassing criticisms from politicians or be
asked by their national parliaments to explain why they had
voted the way they did. Any such criticisms and questions
would, of course, be illegal under the Maastricht treaty,
which states that governments, parliaments and the other
political institutions of member states must not influence or
even "seek to influence" the ECB or the national central
banks in any way.

The paranoia about democratic accountability built into the
Maastricht treaty and reinforced by Mr Duisenberg stores
up obvious trouble for EMU members. Inevitably, decisions
on interest rates will be challenged and voting records will
leak, provoking political battles and bringing European
institutions into further disrepute.

For Tony Blair, the ECB's intransigent rejection of
transparency and accountability will pose even sharper
questions. Surely a Government which takes pride in having
created a successful new monetary framework, based on an
independent but fully accountable Bank of England, could
not recommend that Britain take a giant step away from
economic democracy by joining the single currency under
these alien rules?

(Mon May 11 1998 03:27 - ID#284255)
Japan money surges out amid Big Bang deregulation
TOKYO, May 11 ( Reuters ) - Japanese capital rushed overseas in April after the government revised its Foreign Exchange Control Law as part of its ``Big Bang'' deregulation package, and dealers said that this trend will keep the yen down.

The Finance Ministry said on Monday that 3.09 trillion yen ( $23.2 billion ) in net capital flowed out of Japan on a contract basis in April, compared with 7.825 billion yen flowing into Japan in the previous month.

``About half of net overseas investment by Japanese might be due to the revision of the foreign exchange law,''
Mozel, Hedgehog
Thanks for the best wish's.
He's been amongst the student population for the last few months and knows his way around.
Back in Cairns in about 5 weeks, I think, so will be able to have a good yarn with him.

(Mon May 11 1998 03:44 - ID#284255)
"Fossil fuel plants and railroads are problems. Some countries will be no-fly zones for a while. Lots of small businesses will fail because they are dependent upon third-party computerized programs for cash payments, banking, accounting and marketing.

Asia is going to be toast because banks ( there ) have an early 1980s IBM system called, ironically, 'iron safe' and there is absolutely no recognition there that something must be done quickly."

This means the global trading and banking system could seize up even if North American institutions finish the work on time.

His favorite metaphor compares the world's economy to the Titanic with defective rivets. All the rivets must be changed or the ship will sink.

"I have a software programming background and I know that the field is very buggy. Even on a good day there are computer problems. We're all used to being told the system is down for two hours. But how about being told the system is down for two days or two months?"

"I'd love to be proven wrong. I'm not enjoying this at all," he said.
"I'm an alarmist and here's why: it's mind-boggling with so much at risk there is not a great deal of effort. I'm convinced there will be a complete failure."

(Mon May 11 1998 03:49 - ID#284255)
U.K. stock decline predicted,4,21958,00.html
"I think that this marketplace has become overheated in its valuations. I believe that it is ultimately not to the benefit of the industry--you need a steadily rising market--I believe it will fall back and suffer a correction in the next 12 months," Holway told Reuters. "Something like a 20 percent fall will produce headlines like 'Blood on the Floor,' but that will still mean that this industry is valued considerably higher than it was a few months ago."
"Our industry needs a healthy but steady market. It does not need the kind of steep reversal that we increasingly fear,"

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 03:53 - ID#24135)
Good Question
for Aztec ..

Maybe Leaky Nasty has been Diluted...

(Mon May 11 1998 04:07 - ID#284255)
The Year 2000 Problem - It's worse than we thought - J.P. Morgan

This site has a good list of company's involved in Y21K

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 04:09 - ID#24135)
to all ..
I dont really think it can work. European
politicians and technocrats are actually WORSE
than those in the US. They are more self
interested and dumber. The system is lousy
all the way to the level of the postal worker.
I think the euro will fall apart. I always
thought it was obvious that it would not
work and that there was no point to it.
To ME, the fact that they went AHEAD with
it provides proof in a way of why it will
never work. They may NEVER decide how much
gold will be held to "back" the euro.
The US actually had a few brief glimses
of freedom during its short history. Mainland
europeans NEVER did.

(Mon May 11 1998 04:22 - ID#290118)
Individualists vs. Government

I should've double checked spelling and typed "Loose Cannon" instead. You are right that the religious "Canon" does not apply to you. {Confounded language anyway!}

For readers of this give & take I include dates/times of relevent posts.

Jeil on Mon May 11 1998 02:06 takes issue with my Sun May 10 1998 16:17 response to his post of Sun May 10 1998 02:19.


What do I take personally? Hmmm. I reacted in defense of most of our country's founders when you stated:

"My guess as to the character of most of them is that they were collectivist jerks, just as are most who are attracted to government."

You stated most recently that:

"It is my experience that people discussing issues usually address the issues and only bring in words like ignorant and loose cannon when there is something that has hooked them emotionally."

You are quite correct.

But I venture there was sum underlying emotional hook that grabbed you as well. We are both wrong in bringing such deprecative terms to bear.

"On the issue:" ( and I agree )

It is my understanding that there was considerable debate before compromise was reached concerning the wording of both the Constitution and the Declaration. Neither Hamilton's & Washington's Federalists nor Jefferson's & Madison's "strict constructionists" or Democrat-Republicans got all they wanted.

We got a compromise that leaves us divided yet today. But I do believe the Constitution gave the Federalists, at least at the beginning, the short end of the stick. But the nature of government is such that even the short end of said stick was enough of a wedge to allow further consolidation of government most notably under Lincoln and FDR and with ever accelerating speed under recent Presidents and Congresses.

I agree the initial balance was toward the advocates of state's rights. I agree that State governments then as now have been as tyrannical over their people as the Federal government has been over the States.

Case in point:

Colorado and Governor Romer treat non-urban, non-Denver Coloradans just as colonially as Washington treats Colorado. The hypocrisy is that Governor Romer and his legislature object to Washington's behavior while they do the same to their local governments.

While running for county commissioner a few years ago I had occasion to address a local dinner which included U.S. Senator Campbell and candidates for Congress and Colorado legislative and administrative seats. I implored them to not just delegate Federal programs to the States but to keep those programs moving down to the community level. I was remiss in permitting my time to expire before I could hammer on returning those responsibilities and authorities all the way back to the individual - where they belong.

But individualists don't form governments - neither on a Federal level nor on a local school board level. You are correct in your "assessment that those attracted to governemnt, both past and present, suffer a personality misdevelopment that prevents them from seeing themselves as separate individuals." I would only add that they can't see others as individuals either.

And Individualists ( notice I capitalized the term ) also rarely get together to fight governments. It is against their nature. You can't get them to join fraternal clubs, let alone to form effective groups to stand up to government at any level. I have tried - perhaps not hard enough - though perhaps conditions are not yet bad enough.

Thank you for your rebuttal. You give me cause to more closely read and question our founder's words. That is the educational nature of debate.

But perhaps now for a while we should free up Bart's bandwidth for a return to discussions concerning GOLD and other PMs.

(Mon May 11 1998 04:37 - ID#377196)
Stairway from the stars??? In over 40 years of looking at index, futures,
securities, currency, and economic indicator charts I have never seen one to compare with the monthly chart of the Brazilian Real. The patient should be taken out and shot!

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 04:48 - ID#24135)
Political Reflections
to All
Under a democratic government, through "free and fair"
elections .. you have the means to replace , now and
then, one set of power hungry greedy bums who want to
steal your money with a different set.
Under a Fascist Government you cannot replace these
bums with a different set of bums.
Fascism is better. At least you know where you stand.

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 04:50 - ID#24135)
Silver ??
Leaky nasty's silver seems to have
a hole in it, too.

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 05:19 - ID#24135)
Gold Bonds
to all
I think the question of money being "backed" by gold
is maybe not so important an issue as some of you do.
Money use as a trading medium does not really require
convertability ( I dont believe ) . However money's use as
a store of value does. Suppose europe were to issue
gold indexed bonds .. whereunder the purchaser at maturity
could receive either the face value of the Bond OR
the equivalent amount of gold at the time the bond
was issued. Then gold in effect is being used as
a store of wealth. The Holder of the gold receives a
"return" on it SINCE his gold indexed bonds can
presumably be sold at a lower yield than his "paper
printed" bonds.
The bond buyer is happy because if the seller
debases his currency .. he is covered by the gold
Then gold would be held by both the ECB and the
individual European countries to enable them to issue
gold backed .. euro denominated bonds of their OWN.
Am I missing something.
Countries like Australia and Canada cannot do this
as they have no gold left. Long term interest rates will
rise quickly in those countries and the currencies will
fall .. since they would be in the "paper bond" market.
I recall the French doing this maybe 10-20 years ago.

(Mon May 11 1998 05:31 - ID#252391)
What's hit silver
Anybody heard what rumor or fact ( ha ) has put the silver market on its tail over night in London??

Am beginning to agree that the Euro may be a failure. I suspect Disney is right - they will never reveal the prcentage backing.

Boy this week will start out great if gold sinks and silver crashs.

Interesting the South African Golds were ( a few minutes ago ) up 3.5%

Probably no silver stocks in that index.

(Mon May 11 1998 05:51 - ID#238295)
Glenn said he was shorting silver and expected it to hit $5.50. Another excellent call.

Gold holding up quite well considering.

(Mon May 11 1998 05:57 - ID#411331)
@ALL GOLD and SILVER both dropped $1.00 and $.25 respectively starting at precisely the same time
at 3:00 am in London. I could understand one or the other dropping at a given time, but both dropping at precisely the same time smells of political manipulation in the pm markets -again. SA golds ignored the spot price and were up 3.5%. I guess we shall see if the rumored massive support for silver at $5.75 is true.

To John Disney: If the ECB does not announce a gold backing for the Euro, it will not be perceived by the world financial community as a viable alternative to the US dollar, and I think having an alternative to the much abused buck was the whole idea of creating the EURO. IMHO.

(Mon May 11 1998 06:20 - ID#252391)
They crunched this stuff
I agree Roudy must be some form of political manipulation of heavy short selling on a decline that casued the sell of in silver. I was watching it and it seemed to me that gold rather followed silver down.

Look forward to somebody reporting on the market moving event or manipulation. Something tells me the 50 million oz buy order at $5.75won't quite appear as forecast. Though that's where the market is right about now basis July futures.

Did any body see the Commitment of Traders Report. Seem pretty bullish to me for gold not so for silver. Maybe that's what it is. Probably big sell order in a quiet market in London. But really these metal markets are not doing very well - looks lower. Advice to sell last Monday at the opening worked fine.

(Mon May 11 1998 06:29 - ID#412286)
If you wanted em down you wouldnt want to have em hold here. Why did ECB delay gold announcement. Hmmmm

(Mon May 11 1998 06:34 - ID#412286)
When the Commercials went net short gold you GO SHORT! It has worked evetrytime. Silver is easy with all those little guy stops to hit. Looks like a downside washout in the metals. They are not pushing silver like this to have gold hold 297. Looks like Martin Armstrong is right about silver. Also he said gold low in June 1998 then a big bull. That was in May, 1997.

(Mon May 11 1998 06:46 - ID#252391)
What did Armstrong say about silver??
What did he say?? Noticed on the commitment of traders that the commericals did cover alot of shorts. I'll check it out but it seems to me they made a pretty strong move back toward the bullish side.

RTemdme of the Beach Boys song "Wash OUT" !!!!

(Mon May 11 1998 06:56 - ID#20135)
Anglogold Ltd chief executive Bobby Godsell said in a news release at an international gold conference in Peru that he had been assured by leading European central
bankers that they had no plans to sell their gold reserves in the near future.

``None of the main holders of gold among the European central banks is thinking of any sale of that metal in the near future, nor of selling any considerable part of
their gold reserves,'' the news release said.

``These assurances have been given particularly by the French, German and Italian authorities, as well as those of other European countries,'' the statement added.


And this part seems plain silly, but they will try anything to drive silver down. First rumors warren sold and now, that he has denied selling any silver or being interested in anything but holding it, they are saying that they are selling silver off this morning because they wanted to here Warren make stronger statements about silver. Well, that is plain silly, IMHO.


Macquarie Equities said in a report that silver dropped to a six-week low last week on the back of selling from bulls disappointed by the lack of stronger statements
at Berkshire Hathaway Inc's annual general meeting a week ago.

The silver market expected comment from U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett on the metal in the wake of his announcement earlier this year that he had bought up to 20
percent of the world's annual estimated supply of silver.


(Mon May 11 1998 06:56 - ID#252391)
South African Golds still up 3%+
The South African golds are still holding on to a 3 %+ advance their morning. This is off just a bit from their 3.5% advance.

Somebody must have dug up the Warren Buffett story again to knock silver down. Beach Boys sang "WASH OUT!!!"

(Mon May 11 1998 07:04 - ID#248180)
Is the IMF BROKE?? - from FT London

Asia-Pacific 

IMF: Camdessus warning over 'biggest crisis'
By Gwen Robinson in Melbourne and Stephen Fidler in Washington
The International Monetary Fund could face the biggest crisis in its 53-year history if the US Congress rejected Washington's proposed $18bn ( 10.8bn ) contribution to replenish the Fund's resources, Michel Camdessus, IMF managing director, warned yesterday.

(Mon May 11 1998 07:05 - ID#252391)
Goose, who are they and who said it
Thanks for your silver update minutes ago. I posted just before you and was only joking that somebody had dug up a Warren Buffet story to depress silver. Apparently they have - hard to believe. Obviously the market is very thin.

My question however is you wrote " they would do anything to drive the price of silver down" who said that and I presume "they' are the central bankers and their buddies. Why would they want to drive down the price of silver.???? To clear massive lease shorted positions, perhaps????

Your clarification would be appreciated.

(Mon May 11 1998 07:12 - ID#20135)
Just a reminder Buffet "reiterated his view on the ...
longer-term fundamentals that prompted the purchase to begin
with--that an imbalance between supply and demand would
support prices."

New York-May 5-FWN--

"Market watchers have offered mixed opinions on the
influence of comments so far this week by well-known U.S.
investor Warren Buffett, with some saying they provided no
ammunition for neither bulls nor bears, but others saying
they may have helped the market move higher Monday and
earlier today.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced in early
February that it had accumulated 129.7 million ounces of
In remarks this week in conjunction with a Berkshire
Hathaway shareholders meeting, the investing guru did not
reveal whether any of the silver has been sold, although he
reportedly said a small amount had been loaned out for a
short period of time. However, he reiterated his view on the
longer-term fundamentals that prompted the purchase to begin
with--that an imbalance between supply and demand would
support prices."


(Mon May 11 1998 07:16 - ID#206358)
Canberra, May 9 ( CNA ) The second wave of the Asian financial crisis is
yet to come, but when it does, it will cause economic growth to shrink
and lead to a more severe banking collapse in the region, according to a
senior International Monetary Fund official.

In an interview with Peter Hartcher, Asia-Pacific editor of the Australian
Financial Review, David Nellor, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and
Pacific Office in Tokyo, said the Asian regional crisis is now moving
through the second of three stages: "The financial markets crisis is over
and it is now moving through the real sector, where economies slow
down, and the reverberations of that will be felt next in the banking
sector," he said.

As banking crises followed economic crises, the worst for the region's
banking system is yet to come, he predicted.

Nellor said the IMF is "hoping to see a more comprehensive restructuring
of Japan's banking system."

He said there is no sign of a recovery in Japan -- the biggest economy in
the region.

"We have seen a fiscal package that is going to create some growth this
year in Japan, but what's going to sustain it? That's the question," he said.

"Without Japan, the recovery of Asia becomes less sustainable and
higher risk," he said.

He said that the other countries of the region could still recover even in
the absence of a strong Japan, but this will put strain on the United States
and raise new risks.

He said the three hardest-hit economies in Asia -- Thailand, South Korea
and Indonesia -- are going to make a collective swing of US$160 billion
from external deficit and into some surplus as they claw their way back to

"Mostly, that's going to come out of the US current account deficit. Does
it mean the US needs to consider tightening policy? Will the US take
protectionist measures? Those are the risk factors," he pointed out.

The IMF projects that overall growth in developing Asia will fall from last
year's 6.7 percent to 4.4 percent this year. Most of this remaining growth
will depend on mainland China's continued economic strength.

The IMF's forecast for mainland China's economic growth is seven
percent this year, while its projection for Japan is zero growth.

(Mon May 11 1998 07:19 - ID#113316)
According to Kaplan, commercials were strongly net short silver last week while speculators were just the opposite. Extremely bearish for the POS short term. Under such circumstances, it doesn't take much price change to wash out the speculators, since they all have stop-loss "protection." If as a result of this drop the commercials cover their shorts and the speculators are finally washed out, then we will be ready for the next move up. For what it's worth, SSC Chairman predicted $10 - $11 silver in the very near future.

NEVER, NEVER lose sight of the fundamentals. Demand exceeds supply. The amount in storage has dramatically declined in recent years to much less than one years consumption. The demand for silver is primarily inelastic ( WB said this several times in his presentation ) . This is a great buying opportunity for INVESTORS.

(Mon May 11 1998 07:20 - ID#26793)
Growing risk at Chernobyl reactor

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon May 11 1998 07:21 - ID#347267)
London Gold
Looks like some in London have the word to nip all Gold rallies in the bud!! See Kitco chart at 3 am Eastern today and previous day later.
Regards; Mtn Bear

(Mon May 11 1998 07:25 - ID#316193)
"Will Greenspan have the guts to do what he should have done a long time ago?"

(Mon May 11 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Trend toward global banking is increasing market risks

(Mon May 11 1998 07:32 - ID#26793)
Money is surging out of Japan

(Mon May 11 1998 07:50 - ID#206358)
For those who interested in ASIA MARKETS!
Quite a good guide in the market:
bye...good nite!
DONALD always enjoy your varieties posts...easy for me !!save a lots of time!

(Mon May 11 1998 07:58 - ID#252391)
MTN Bear - think you are right
Someday when the history of this era will be written, maybe; it will be very interesting to know the motivation of those so intent on keeping the gold market lower. Perhaps we already know - the central banks of the world can not afford to let it loose - what would it say of their paper empires.

Thinking my capital would be better placed in the Plat and PD markets which don't seem to be quiet so politically controlled.

South African stocks seemed to have closed up 3%

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon May 11 1998 08:05 - ID#347267)
Gold Forecaster

Please take a look at the short and intermediate term Forecaster and see if you agree with me that we are in a buy zone for the XAU?? The thing that concerns me is that the long term chart appears to be weakening without reaching its upper bounds. Interpreting these charts is an art that I have not mastered yet. They ( the charts ) are VERY USEFUL for trading and I find them much easier to understand than E Wave Analysis ( waves I don't understand make me SEE sick!! ) . For newcomers to the site, the comments underneath the charts aid in interpretation. TIA.

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

(Mon May 11 1998 08:06 - ID#284255)
That is a very damning report from the IMF.
With the IMF near broke
And a fresh wave hitting Asia
It's not going to be pretty.

The Western powers have done
A good job of corrupting the East.
Show them the excesses,
Lead them to the excesses.
Lend them the excesses,
Then pull the rug out from underneath their feet.

Global repositioning
Show them your assets
Lend them your assets
Let them build up their assets
Then pull the rug out
And make their assets yours.

Trouble is that we now live in a global world.
They are our trading partners.
And we have sent them broke.

Soon it will be the
Time to watch the pendulum
Swing back in the West's face.

Take care.

Next the IMF will announce that Y2K is real.
And that they are really broke and hold no gold.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:10 - ID#254269)
Gold of the Gods Exhibition now on at Kimbell Museum, Ft. Worth. Texas.
Hope this doesn't violate Bart's no commercial policy ( Certainly not intended to ) .

Saw a big ad in Sunday's Dallas Morning News Page 5C ( Arts Section ) . The Kimbell museum is having an exhibition from now until July 19th of "The Wealth of the Thracians", an ancient culture in the Balkan peninsula, including a gold necklace from the 4th century B.C. More than 200 gold or silver objects to be displayed. Looks interesting for any Kitcoites in North Texas area. Tickets available at the door or Dillard's ticket service.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:11 - ID#238295)
Contrarian Alert
Gold sentiment on this thread is almost as bearish as it was just before last fall's gold bottom.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:13 - ID#254269)
P.S. I an not connected with the Kimbell exhibit in any way. Just thought others
might like to know about the exhibit.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:23 - ID#284255)
Another satisfied customer? - no more they say.
ALGERIA: Government likely to end IMF programme
leaving Algeria with reserves worth six months of imports by 2000.

An unemployment rate reaching 28 per cent is seen as a threat to social stability in an already violent environment. While some economists believe the unemployment figures could be worse than officially recognised, Mr Harchaoui said that the parallel sector and tax evasion in Algeria exaggerated the decline in growth and the unemployment figures. He also put a positive spin on the future of the economy, dismissing threats of a social explosion and insisting that privatisation of the huge and inefficient public sector would take off this year, in spite of the violence.
Indonesia risks further unrest
Indonesia and its foreign bank creditors failed to reach agreement on rescheduling an estimated $68bn in private sector debt, held mainly by Indonesian corporations

(Mon May 11 1998 08:24 - ID#7568)

The morning's selling in silver is again apparently coming from one of the big technical trend followers. They have probably done something on the order of 10 million ounces in the overnight session. Just guessing, but this puts their overall short position at somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 to 40 million ounces.

As I said last week, the risk in the silver market is that these guys would take a full position on the short side and that another large trend following fund would follow. If the other shoe drops we could see as much as another 30 million ounces of selling. Not being privy to their systematic approach, I have absolutely no idea of where they would be sellers, but it probably isn't to far from here.

We will probably see the usual post-fund bailout action today in silver. Extremely quiet in the morning, waiting to see if more size selling comes in, followed by a rally in the afternoon once it has been felt that the selling is over. I'll go out on a limb and bet that if there is any more large selling to be done it will be done on or about the opening in Comex.

This will go down in history as the most bizarre market corner that has ever been achieved.

A guy goes out and buys a load of silver ( WB & Co. ) . He, along with others participating in the game, obviously have ample funds to purchase all the above ground stocks of the commodity, perhaps 10 x over. They pretty much stand up and announce to the world what they are doing. They have already been vastly successful in a sister market ( palladium ) , over the prior 18 months. Remarkablely enough, not only do they not have to pay up for the commodity, but other speculators see fit to get short the commodity in serious size, and sell it down to the group trying to corner the market.

As I think I have proven here quite well, I am as clueless as the next guy when it comes to the short term action of any of this stuff. One thing that I can predict with what I feel to be a very high degree of probability, is that when these short positions are unwound, and they surely will be, the market will not be moving up a puny 20 cents at a time.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:24 - ID#401460)
ECB's Gold Reserves??

Please excuse if this has been posted earlier.
Monday May 11, 6:33 am Eastern Time

Silver under pressure, gold hovers around $300

Dealers and analysts said gold did not react to the news because the market was now well aware of the issues relating to the make-up of the European Central Bank's ( ECB ) gold reserves.

What are the ECB's Gold Reserves going to be?


(Mon May 11 1998 08:25 - ID#248180)
@Old Gold - @ GOLD & PM'S
Maybe bearish for some traders but an excellent time is being had by those that are accumulating. WE HAVE ACCUMULATED, WE ARE ACCUMULATING, and WE WILL ACCUMULATE MORE.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:30 - ID#254269)
"Regulators target Big Board's 50 point collar ". Artcile on Page C1 of today's
WSJ. Regulators ( Greenspan, Rubin, CFTC ) urge the collar be widened .

(Mon May 11 1998 08:32 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon May 11 1998 07:05
jims ( Goose, who are they and who said it ) ID#252391:
Thanks for your silver update minutes ago. I posted just before you and was only joking that somebody had dug up a Warren Buffet story to depress silver. Apparently they have - hard to believe. Obviously the market is very thin.


I guess as far as Macquarie Equities is concerned they is the disappointed bulls. See url I attached previously. I guess it is the same someone you referred to ??? ( : )

It is hard to tell, but somebody out their spends a lot of time putting out incorrect and false news ( ? ) , rumors, ... to keep gold and silver down. Could it be Rubin and Alan for the USG ???

Best do like Warren buy on the fundamentals and hold, ignore the Rhetoric ( :^@


(Mon May 11 1998 08:34 - ID#20135)
Monday May 11, 6:53 am Eastern Time

UK funds expect a strong euro -- Merrill survey

The top pick was the euro, with 45 percent support -- outgunning even the dollar, favoured by 41 percent.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:36 - ID#284255)
Japan falls behind in race against Y2K bug
The Y2K problem is potentially more damaging in Japan because, as a result of its main bank system, financial intermediaries play a much more dominant role in the economy than elsewhere.

But there are no plans for any Japanese Government co-ordinated testing program -- and that really worries the US financial institutions in Japan.
Beijing flu set to sweep commodity markets
A chill breeze from Beijing is beginning to sweep through global commodity markets. The Chinese economy is in trouble and when China sneezes, commodity markets catch the flu.

"I understand that the Chinese have initiated a kind of sudden cotton export program which is contributing to some degree to lower prices," said Dan Glickman in testimony on Thursday to the US Senate Agriculture Committee.

That's an understatement. Rather than being significant net importers of raw cotton, China has suddenly turned into an exporter of 1.2 million bales with traders expecting another 700,000 bales to come. Last year China imported about 800,000 bales, taking 15 per cent of Australia's cotton exports. Now nothing.

But it's not just cotton that will be affected by China's mounting economic problems.

Right now the Chinese economy is on a precipice. If it goes over, all commodity markets, particularly the base metals, wool, cotton, iron and steel and iron ore will be hit hard by a second Asian shock wave.

The Chinese economy is slowing rapidly. This is partly because of the austerity program introduced earlier this decade to dampen growth and contain inflation. Growth this year will be closer to 7 per cent against last year's 9 per cent and the 14 per cent enjoyed in 1992.

"The economy is in difficult straits, especially with state enterprises being restructured," said Rob Henderson, chief economist at Dresdner Australia.

Unemployment is rising with 4 million civil servants alone being put out of work as a result of restructuring the civil service and many more as a result of restructuring of State enterprises.

These State enterprises' profitability fell by 80 per cent in the first two months of this year compared to the same period last year.

For the banking sector this is a disaster. About 80 per cent of the State-owned bank's lending is to State companies.

Already the State banks are burdened by massive bad debts, estimated at about 20-30 per cent of assets. "All-in-all, it is hard to believe that Chinese state banks . . . are not bust several times over," said last week's Economistmagazine.

And to add insult to injury, devaluations throughout the rest of Asia this past year have undermined China's competitive position. There is now increasing talk, outside official circles, that China is on the cusp of devaluation.

"We do not expect a devaluation in the short term, but the potential is there for one later this year," said Rob Henderson.

Dresdner's Hong Kong-based economists believe that China agreed to hold the yuan's value so long as the US lets China into the World Trade Organisation. But what then?

If China devalues, this will trigger a second wave of competitive devaluations throughout Asia and cause a second leg down in commodity prices.

From a commodities perspective, China's economic difficulties, on top of the general economic slowdown in the rest of Asia, competitive devaluations and an imploding political and economic situation in Indonesia, are devastating.

Of course, a booming US economy, with GDP growth over 4 per cent and unemployment at a 28-year low of 4.3 per cent, along with a strong Europe, go some way to softening the Asian blow. But a blow it is, especially with China weakening.

But why is China so important?

China's role in commodity markets generally, and the base metals, specifically, "has grown rapidly since 1980 as the economy has modernised and economic growth has accelerated," said Jim Lennon, senior commodities analyst with the Macquarie Bank group.

China accounted for about 3 per cent of demand for various metals in 1980. By 1990 it accounted for 10 per cent. It now ranks as the second largest consuming country in the world in lead and zinc, the third largest in aluminium, copper and tin and the ninth largest in nickel.

On the production side China is the world's leading tin and zinc producer, number two lead producer and fourth largest copper and aluminium producer.

On the iron ore front, China takes around 10 per cent of world iron ore exports and is Australia's largest customer accounting for 18 per cent of Australia's total iron ore exports.

In the world wool market, China accounts for about 28 per cent of total wool consumed and is today Australia's most important customer, taking 23 per cent of its wool exports.

In short, China counts.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:45 - ID#289357)
Mtn Bear

Thanx for the site link - I haven't seen this one before. But a quick look at the charts seems to indicate that a fall down to about XAU 80 wouldn't be surprising, and I think a reversal at that level would be very bullish. All IMVHO, of course.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:45 - ID#284255)
Greenspan keeps them guessing
Greenspan will be pleased he now has people second-guessing. He could have waited until May 21 to have the change in bias disclosed formally, but he obviously believed the asset bubble was growing so fast he could not wait by even one month.
Soeharto on the defensive
President Soeharto has defended Indonesia's financial assistance to troubled banks against mounting complaints that bankers are being assisted while other subsidies are being slashed.
Washington works it each way on Indonesia
Both Washington and the rest of the G7 countries are caught between admonishing and sympathising with President Soeharto's regime in Indonesia over mounting domestic unrest.
G7 gets tough on foul play
In the wake of the Asian crisis the G7 is cracking the whip on both a new world financial architecture and tougher supervision of global financial firms.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:45 - ID#20135)
German April inflation rise no surprise -Tietmeyer
``In Germany we had a VAT increase of one percent. So that ( inflation increase ) is absolutely no surprise, that was expected,'' he told reporters after G10 central
bankers held their regular monthly meeting.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:45 - ID#401460)
$ 18 Billion

I know $ 18 Billion is a lot of money but I would think that it is a small amount in the context of all of the Asian problems and other problems around the World - So...why is Boeing, GE, AIG, Rubin, IMF,et cetera makeing it imparative that the IMF get this from the US.

It seems to me ( IMHO ) that the only way $ 18 Billion could help, would be if it was going to be used in a leverage manner, to cover there derivative investments that may be still hanging out there.

They are giving the appearance of uncontroled addicted gamblers who need just one more chance to get even.


(Mon May 11 1998 08:47 - ID#254269)
$18 Billion; HighRise, I may be wrong but I thought I read somewhere that the
IMF Needs the 18 B from US, so it can get a total of 65B from all of its member countries.

(Mon May 11 1998 08:49 - ID#284255)
Avalon - how much bigger?
A bigger collar for a grizzlier bear?

(Mon May 11 1998 08:51 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon May 11 1998 08:23
sharefin ( Another satisfied customer? - no more they say. ) ID#284255:

Just hilarious, sharefine. What else can I say. ( :^@

(Mon May 11 1998 08:56 - ID#284255)
How the West was won, by Bill Clinton
Military to decide Soeharto's fate as public anger grows
"What the Government is experiencing now is not just a loss of credibility but a loss of legitimacy,"
"Soeharto cannot solve our nation's problem, and when we analyse the problem, we find he is the problem."
"There are individuals in the army who can't be too open yet, but they want to gauge how big or powerful the movement against Soeharto is,"
He claimed his influential circle of friends - foreign-educated lawyers, businessmen and politicians - all knew senior officers who were discussing the need for change at the top.
"The financial crisis is a unifying factor against Soeharto," he said. "Right now we feel we're on the edge of the cliff."
"If 1,000 people are protesting, the army will kill them all. If 5,000 people are protesting, the army will leave them alone. If more than 5,000 people are protesting, the army will join them."

(Mon May 11 1998 09:12 - ID#254269)
collars; sharefin, article says collar was triggered on 8% of trading days in
1991 and increased to 87% of trading days in 1997. So far, in 1998, 94% of trading days or 97 occassions, including last Friday. Artilce notes, that even if a 1% collar were in place, it would have been activated over 130 time during last 12 months. Article says collar exacerbates volatility by "disconnecting" stock and stock-futures markets.

Oh, what a price we pay for security !

(Mon May 11 1998 09:18 - ID#254269)
Other WSJ articles;
1. Inflation views are dividing the Bulls from the Bears ( Page C1 ) .
2. CFTC and Sumitomo to settle probe of copper scandal ( Page C4 )
3. G-7 Ministers are silent on issue of currencies. Page C15.

(Mon May 11 1998 09:23 - ID#317193)
The sky is falling-help-help!!
So the PM markets look lousy. Gold down again and so is silver. What is a person to do? Perhaps look further than the end of your What are the fundamental that you see for gold, silver and platinum? Do you believe in those fundamentals? If so, be happy for your opportunity.

If you are able to look past a few weeks or months, just as WB, I suggest that the tone of the posts here would be much different. Who would you rather walk with, WB or WJBC? Need anything further be said?

Good investing folks. Smile, prices could go down even a little more.


(Mon May 11 1998 09:24 - ID#284255)
A.Goose - @ twisted words = reality we wear.
Seems like the price is rising.
Sanity does'nt come cheap.
Mon May 11th 1998 .... CNBC reports that McDonald employees are now demanding quote screens be made mandatory in the burger chain's kitchens so that "partners" can keep an eye out on their investments while flipping burgers

(Mon May 11 1998 09:27 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
Bonds down due to rumor that Warren Buffet unloaded mega zero coupons

Bonds on verge of breaking Friday's lows !

is that a new low for the s.korea market?

new low: now there is a phrase you don't hear often.

"new lows" coming to a market near you soon.

Watch THOSE BONDS! A failure may be coming to your local theatre!

KOREA very bad as most companies have huge foreign debt and yesterdays comments of the president he will classify companies according to their ability to sustain themselves unaided didnt help

(Mon May 11 1998 09:31 - ID#28861)
India explodes underground Nuke
The first on in 24 years. Heard on the radio driving in to work. Will post confirmation if I have time. Arms race between India and Pakistan now likely. So go GOLD.

(Mon May 11 1998 09:42 - ID#335190)
Multi-national Corporation's & "We The People" Governments @ Doing Honest&Creative Business?
FOCUS-Western governments step into Pak IPP row

ISLAMABAD, May 11 ( Reuters ) - Britain, Japan, the United States and Canada told Pakistan on Monday that its clash
with independent power projects ( IPPs ) over alleged over-pricing and corruption might scare off investors.

It was the first time the four countries had made a public joint statement on a row that has weighed on the stock market, dominated the media and worried potential investors.

The IPPs, set up to sell power to WAPDA, include major energy firms such as Britain's National Power and Midlands Power International , U.S.-based General Electric , Coastal Power and AES Corp and Japan's Toyota Tsusho Corp and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries .

More than 50 international banks and financial institutions, including the World Bank, are exposed to the equity and debt raised by some of these IPPs.

"We have evidence that most of the companies have over-invoiced and siphoned off money from their projects," Water and Power State Minister Haleem Siddiqui told Reuters.

"The government has given sovereign guarantees ( to them ) for honest business and for bringing genuine investment...not to cover their corruption or illegal activities."

The government says the firms' rates are too high for WAPDA and wants them cut by up to 30 percent.

(Mon May 11 1998 09:43 - ID#284255)
Dow +100 first 15 minutes trading
SIN8 =$5.77
GCM8 =$299.80

Sustainable trading?

(Mon May 11 1998 09:44 - ID#20135) shows DOW already up 180.11 CNBC shows 100.89! Is it a race to see who can post the highest DOW rise?

And this rush is based on ??? Oh probably liquidity; the same liquidity that the FED keeps trying to remove from the market everyday.

(Mon May 11 1998 09:48 - ID#20135) seems to have a broken DOW reading ( :^}

(Mon May 11 1998 09:48 - ID#246224)
The "Western" man does not corrupt the "Eastern" man. We are led astray by our own desires to the universal corrupting idols of power, money and illicit sex. Every race and culture has bowed down to these idols made from 'wood, stone and metal' whether literal or in the imagination ...

And there is always "hell to pay" for doing so: the devastation of wars, slavery of various kinds and venerial diseases.

But we never will repent of this of our own choice, will we?

(Mon May 11 1998 09:52 - ID#342315)
aurator re assay
Local PAWN shop has a touchstone kit for about $60. He's out at the moment- takes about a week for delivery. Check some pawn shops in your area. If nothing else they may check it for you. If I can help further, let me know, Charlie

(Mon May 11 1998 09:52 - ID#410215)
..... Rumor to be confirmed? .....

We will see today if the rumored big silver buy at 5.75 is the stuff of champions, or the demented ravings of whacked out floor trader. The charts look pretty good here and a 50 million oz purchase would put us on the way back to $7 in no time.


(Mon May 11 1998 09:58 - ID#289357)
Here's the India nuke test story

(Mon May 11 1998 10:03 - ID#284255)
Allen @ 3 vices from hell.
Yes, we all like our own comforts.
And aspire to our neighbours.

But who's setting these goalposts.
IMF borrows @ 7% and lends @ 18%

Total power corrupts totally.

Whom the gods make crazy, they first make mad.

We've had the 'Folly'
Now the 'Frenzy'
Soon the 'Fear'.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:04 - ID#289357)
Giant Telecom Merger - SBC/Ameritech

(Mon May 11 1998 10:05 - ID#284255)
Allen @ 3 vices from hell.
Yes, we all like our own comforts.
And aspire to our neighbours.

But who's setting these goalposts.
IMF borrows @ 7% and lends @ 18%

Total power corrupts totally.

Whom the gods set out to destroy, they first make crazy.
Whom the gods make crazy, they first make mad.

We've had the 'Folly'
Now the 'Frenzy'
Soon the 'Fear'.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:07 - ID#269409)
@ Silver...keep it up Merril Lynch...we'll see who comes out on top!
Monday May 11, 6:33 am Eastern Time

Silver under pressure, gold hovers around $300

LONDON, May 11 ( Reuters ) - Silver recovered slightly in early European trading on
Monday after coming under selling pressure, while gold hovered around $300.00 an
ounce, dealers said.

Gold was last quoted at $299.10/$299.60, against the previous close at $299.60/$300.10. It
was fixed lower at $299.00, against the previous fix of $300.40.

Silver lost ground in early trading and was last quoted at $5.78/$5.82, down from the
close at $5.96/$5.99.

Dealers said silver had pared its losses after dropping some 25 cents in early European
trading. Silver's decline pushed gold below $300.00.

``Gold was holding fairly comfortably around the $300 level until silver came under
pressure,'' one dealer said.

Gold softened despite bullish news from the world's biggest gold producer, Anglogold, on

Anglogold Ltd chief executive Bobby Godsell said in a news release at an international
gold conference in Peru that he had been assured by leading European central bankers that
they had no plans to sell their gold reserves in the near future.

``None of the main holders of gold among the European central banks is thinking of any
sale of that metal in the near future, nor of selling any considerable part of their gold
reserves,'' the news release said.

``These assurances have been given particularly by the French, German and Italian
authorities, as well as those of other European countries,'' the statement added.

Dealers and analysts said gold did not react to the news because the market was now well
aware of the issues relating to the make-up of the European Central Bank's ( ECB ) gold

Dealers said silver dropped to a day low of $5.73/$5.76.

``We have been heralding for some time that it might be time for a correction on the
downside,'' a dealer said.

He said the sell-off in silver did not help gold's fortunes.

``It has been marked lower to see where people are comfortable with it. I would not be at
all surprised to see gold back up above $300.00 again,'' the dealer said.

Macquarie Equities said in a report that silver dropped to a six-week low last week on the
back of selling from bulls disappointed by the lack of stronger statements at Berkshire
Hathaway Inc's annual general meeting a week ago.

The silver market expected comment from U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett on the metal in
the wake of his announcement earlier this year that he had bought up to 20 percent of the
world's annual estimated supply of silver.

Platinum and palladium remained quiet with palladium last quoted higher at
$310.00/$320.00, from the previous close at $308.00/$318.00.

Platinum was last quoted at $392.00/$395.00, from the previous close at $396.00/$398.00.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:08 - ID#317193)
Classic top in the Dow/Nas.-watch out below! Yes, I know how high the market has gone up early this a.m. This is not sustainable. When she turns it will be ugly.


(Mon May 11 1998 10:08 - ID#269409)
@ Gold report......In case RJ is sleeping
Gold market is "ASB"

(Mon May 11 1998 10:12 - ID#269409)
KitCoites shouldda been there!
Havn't seen this posted yet, but it's a nice microcosim of the rift which is oft described between FED policy/philosophy, and that of hard money advocates.

PMI Stages Debate Between WGC
and Federal Reserve Board

WGC carries the day in a lively public debate on gold's role as a central
bank reserve asset.

On Thursday, 23 April the New York Chapter of the International
Precious Metals Institute ( IPMI ) staged a debate between Dale
Henderson of the Federal Reserve Board and Dick Ware of the
Councils Centre for Public Policy Studies ( PPC ) . The debate centered
around the formers controversial paper suggesting that global welfare would
be significantly enhanced if central banks were to sell off all their gold. The
paper claimed, completely implausibly, that the effect on the price of doing so
would be a mere $40.

The Council's Response

Replying to Dale Henderson, the PPC pointed to the main omission in the
paper - that the public sector is assumed to derive no, or very little, utility
from holding gold. It is simply taken for granted that any income-earning
asset other than gold will generate net gains.

The Council posed the question why so many countries - including the largest
- continue to hold gold if they do not think that they benefit from it. It could not
simply be history, accident or inertia.

The PPC stated that there are undoubtedly a number of solid reasons why
the official sector holds gold, regardless of the return it makes on it ( a return
which, in any case, is currently much higher than that available on Japanese
government bonds ) . These include:

Diversification - Gold is the only major asset negatively correlated to
the financial instruments held by central banks - and indeed often to
the dollar. Its ability to reduce portfolio volatility is therefore valuable.
Independence - Gold is not fiat money. It has a value independent of
the economic policies of any individual country. Equally, and assuming
it is held in an appropriate location, it cannot be subject to asset
Economic security - The advent of a crisis can lead to instant
withdrawal of credit lines. The possession of gold - to sell or perhaps
use as collateral - gives an extra dimension of freedom to a country in
balance of payments/reserve difficulties.
Confidence in paper money - A number of the largest gold holders
are on record as saying that their citizens confidence in, and
willingness to use, their own national currency, benefits from the fact
that a substantial amount of gold is held in the reserves. There is, of
course, no longer a direct link between the two, as there was in Gold
Standard days. In a number of countries, however, it is quite clear that
an implicit connection between unreal ( paper ) money and ( real ) gold is
Systemic reasons - The international monetary system is not static. In
the last hundred years, there has been a move from a gold standard,
through a gold-exchange standard, to todays freely-floating world.
Where the system will be in twenty years' time is uncertain. Possession
of gold - both at the heart of the system at the IMF and in individual
central banks - allows the major players to keep all their options open
for the future.

In sum, the PPC's main thesis was that gold cannot be treated just like any
other commodity. There are important non-financial reasons why the official
sector holds - and will go on holding - significant amounts of gold. These
reasons are not susceptible to modelling.

Broad Support for the Council's Argument

The meeting ended with a long and lively question and answer session. The
overwhelming majority of the comments were supportive of the Councils
position and against Hendersons. In particular, there was general agreement
that one could not trust governments and central bankers always to pursue
responsible anti-inflation economic policies. Against such a background,
holding something more solid than paper money was the course of wisdom.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:12 - ID#284255)
Y2k Weatherman Report #26
The article below is better than what I was going to write. So
instead of reinventing the wheel, here it is. ( My comments follow. )
I know from my professional programming experiences that in large
organizations, despite how people talk, there is actually no such
thing as "The System." Everyone speaks about "The Billing System,"
"The Brokerage System," "The Letter of Credit System," and so forth.
But what exists, in fact, is an incredibly tangled rat's nest of many

With physical things, it is quite easy to determine where "The
Battleship" ends and "The Aircraft Carrier" begins. Not so with
software systems.

Software systems have been put into place over long periods of time.
While they may have begun life several decades ago as freestanding
systems with clearly defined edges, what happens over time is that
subsystems are slapped on the periphery. Interfaces are added between
previously freestanding systems. Boundaries become blurred.

After an amazingly short period of time, it becomes virtually
impossible to know precisely where one system begins and another ends. What is even more difficult to understand is how processing in one
system affects processing in another system.

It is entirely probable that due to incomplete historical knowledge,
analysts will assume that system A just feeds system B. What is missed
is that data that comes from A can pass untouched through B and then
trigger something in system C. The connection between A and C can be
easily obscured, unless you happen to know about them.

In the real world, of course, it's more likely that data from system A
moves passively through systems B through Y and then triggers
something in system Z. The chances of the owners of A and Z
recognizing their co-dependency is very slim. Now do we understand
why testing is expected to consume 50%+ of Y2K project efforts?
Y2k Weatherman Comments:
This is why any large organization that isn't done with most of their
code changes in 1998 is at risk. The party line ( or LIE ) from most
major corporations is that all Y2k programming changes will be
completed by 12/31/98 leaving all of 1999 for testing. Don't bet on it.

In addition to fuzzy boundaries between systems, there are often very
fuzzy boundaries on ownership and responsibility for software systems.
This plus the fact that nobody wants to deal with Y2k since the
effort appears to have no "added value" makes Y2k project management a nightmare. I do Y2k project management for a living. I know this from experience.

Dealing with Y2k repair work is like dealing with a drug addict in
your family. Everyone agrees the addict needs to get help, but nobody
wants to confront the addict. Treatment is more expensive the longer
you wait, and the addict will likely die if you wait too long. I hope
we haven't waited too long.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:15 - ID#317193)
A difference of opinion my friend. You may not see it yet but the gold market is not ASB.

Give me four weeks and call me on this opinion. The worst I can be is wrong-again.


(Mon May 11 1998 10:16 - ID#269409)
Gloom and Doom From Van Impe's site
I know how Kitcoites need a daily dose of Gloom and Doom in order to feel happy and fulfilled!

May 8,
According to a report from the BBC, North Korea has threatened to stop complying with an agreement
not to develop nuclear weapons unless the U.S. fulfills its part of the bargain to build two new nuclear
power plants and makes regular deliveries of oil. North Korea, which the U.S. considers a terroist
state, alleges that the U.S. is breaking its promises. However, the U.S. funding from South Korea and
Japan, both in financial crisis, along with the U.S. has not been forthcoming. The U.S. is also worried
that building the nuclear reactors could be used by North Korea to produce nuclear weapons.

May 8,
By ratifying NATO's eastern expansion in Europe, Russia said that the United States was making "a
fatal mistake, which might lead to extremely negative processes fraught with historical
consequences." Officials said that the decision to expand NATO could threaten the START II treaty
which is supposed to cut the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals by more than half.

May 8,
According to what IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti told a House panel yesterday in Washington,
pressure on the IRS to adequately deal with year 2000 computer problems are creating a "dangerous
and risky situation" for the government agency. Compounding the problem faced by the IRS, many IRS
programmers have to also deal with the need to implement hundreds of tax-code changes required by
the 1997 tax law. Rossotti recommended that some of the pro-taxpayer provisions of the IRS reform
bill nearing Senate passage be put off for several years because he said, "We really cannot cram
anything more into this computer system. It's already high-risk."

(Mon May 11 1998 10:17 - ID#284255)
'The Full Monty' - latest report May 11th
You will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view these articles.
But it is well worth it. Very good reading.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:24 - ID#269409)
@ Tyoung
Ahhh, well you may be right, but IMHO, it's the SILVER market that is NAB. After all, it appears that a final "blowoff" is ocurring, which when it reached it's inevtiable nadir, will usher in the next "UP" wave. A wave so high, it'll be bigger than the 1000 footer that washed away NYC in the new movie "Deep Impact"!!

As so many here have eloquently pointed out, including DA this morning with his most excellent post, the factors that will drive Silver "in the long run" will eclipse this puny short term manipulation.

The fundamentals are in place. The end result can not be changed. I'm buying some bags of Merc. and Walkers this week. Some to sell and some to hold. Merril Lynch has become my friend...they'll help allow ANYone with a few bucks into this market before it launches into orbit.

And then there's SSC....I concur with Mr. Sheller's observation that this stock is like a non expiring option on Silver. Not holding any yet, but I will be placing a "buy" order at 1 1/16, or possibly 1.0 today or tomorrow, depending on where this "slide" ends.

Now let's see if RJ's rumor re a major buy order at $5.75 comes through today. Gold's at bargain levels it's true....but with this downturn, Silver is the better buy for the intermediate term. Track from here and see what gains most, yes?

(Mon May 11 1998 10:27 - ID#238295)
How to get the Dow to 20,000 - fast
Let all companies in every key industry merge so that consumers will face monoplies or at most duopolies across the board. Average American will suffer immensely, buit Wall Street will love it.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:32 - ID#317193)
Yes. Also, I agree with you on silver. I have my order in on more SSRIF @ 3 1/8 and have the same plans as you on SSC. Now that is scary.

Gold, of course, is where we disagree. Good trading to you.


(Mon May 11 1998 10:35 - ID#269409)
News From the Numismatic front...Gold & Silver strong
Excerpts from current "Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter"...the largest "Sight/unseen" dealer pricing wholesale bid/ask industry pub.

The market for sight-unseen Morgan Dollars is as strong this week as we have seen it anytime this year. Plenty of coin dealers are posting strong
supporting Bids for Dollars. Repeatedly, we have seen strong Bids for key and semi-key date Dollars. Demand for these dates stems from the solid customer base that exists for
Morgan Dollars. These collectors are actively pursuing collections of Dollars. Some are building specific sets such as Carson City or Deep Mirror Prooflike Dollars. Others are even
more ambitious, building complete date and Mint sets in About Uncirculated and better condition. Regardless, the need for Morgan's is the reason that Bids have remained strong. It
is why the market is so good and why the support for the increased levels has been sustained. We have especially noticed very strong supporting Bids for the better dates grading
Mint State 65. Apparently, many collectors must be looking for gem quality Dollars. However, many dates throughout the Morgan series are tough to locate in gem Uncirculated
condition. Some of the dates receiving this support include 1878 7/8 Tail Feathers, strong Tail Feathers; 1878 7 Tail Feather, reverse of 1879; 1887/6-O; 1888-S; 1889-O; 1890-CC;
1891-O; 1893; 1896-S; and, 1901-S. It is easy to why these coins are among those dates needed by collectors. However, the availability of these dates makes satisfying customers
demands a difficult task for dealers. Dealers still tell us that buyers are very selective. They want coins that are well struck. They prefer brilliant white, lustrous coins but are happy to
accept a lightly toned, original example. Besides the better dates, we have noticed increases in generic Dollars in MS-63, MS-64, MS-65, MS-66 and MS-67. Dealers are trying to
accumulate nice examples and find it necessary to increase their Bids to be successful.

Another segment of the sight-unseen market that continues to do well is Gold. Dealers are in desperate need of Gold at and above current levels. They have a growing list of
customers trying to obtain various denominations and grades in quantity. As the price of Gold bullion increases, currently trading around the $307 per ounce level, the need becomes
even greater. Dealers are trying their best to accommodate collectors but finding it difficult to locate the Gold they need in quantity. Demand for Gold is in all grades from the lower
circulated grades to MS-65 and better. They are looking for coins that are lustrous and are relatively problem-free. Because Gold is a soft metal, it has the tendency to get more than
its share of rim dings when it encounters other Gold coins. Dealers have increased their Bids for $20 Saint-Gaudens. You will see many plus signs this week in the Saint-Gaudens

(Mon May 11 1998 10:43 - ID#342315)
ROR re your (COT)
I tend to agree heartily with your premise. I have been trying for some time to get the COT on gold and silver so I can chart this vs the prices. I got from about May 1 back thru '96, but the trouble is I got the whole damn commodites section. I have requested a way to extract just gold and silver, but no reply yet from CFTC. If you have a method I would appreciate knowing about it. Thanx, Charlie

(Mon May 11 1998 10:48 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re Prem
What are the parameters for the Prem in re turning points? or pressures up and down. Many thanx again, Charlie

(Mon May 11 1998 10:51 - ID#284255)

CRB chart forming a nice wedgie?

(Mon May 11 1998 10:55 - ID#390415)
Why too Kay
Sharefin - good point about the interconnectedness and gray boundaries of "systems". I am almost at the place of being tired of sounding the alarm, and wondering if instead I shouldn't join forces with those who want to speak reassuringly to minimize the potential for widespread panic, which would not help anybody.

The legislators, bureaucrats, CEOs, and CIOs need to panic, whilst we tell everyone else, This is just a drill, please move toward the exits in an orderly fashion.

Why don't we all just enjoy our last year on the Titanic: send a letter to an old friend, get right with God, and sit out on the deck with a drink and a good book.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:58 - ID#345176)
@ LGB on Silver

Sorry to inform you but if you place an order to buy
SSC at $1, you will have to wait until my order gets
filled first.

(Mon May 11 1998 10:58 - ID#31868)
America the Beautiful, Home of the Free...

(Mon May 11 1998 10:59 - ID#340459)
Where is $ 30,000 oz Gold ??
I have availed of all the 'buying' opportunities, Looking for a 'selling' opportunity now.

Does anybody have info on Euro/Gold % backing, Wasnt this supposed to be announced and we had anticipated it to put fire under POG.

The way Gold is heading, since a long time now of my life time, makes me think that maybe this is the END of her chapter in History as all things are in a state of transition as Change is the only Permanent. Every Civilization since time and the things they covet are always in a state of consistent creation and destruction.

It seems that apart from traditional demand in India and some parts of Asia, there is little global attraction to the metal now.

We have seen time and again that DOW rules, it's moves MOVE the market from Australia to Zimbabwe, whether this is rational or not is a good discussion but talk does generate return on Investment.

If the CB's continue to look down on Gold then what attraction is there for Man on the Street to be contrarian. Most of the World population has ONLY used paper throughout their lifetime of Purchasing/Trading their Goods and Services, and are now getting used to digital economy with power to move billions of dollars around the globe in the blinking of an eye, How can we expect the global population to look favourably on Gold when their Governament and their Central Banks have talked down it's value and sells their inventories at any early opportunity contrary to all our talk about physical shortages etc..,if this argument had any merit then mines wouldnt be closing down nor POG consistently moving down. A probable Investor just has to look at the POG graph since more than a decade to scare him/her off this PM path.

IMHO, If there is any opportunity to make us all money ( whatever that means ) Then the only option ( s ) are either strong Euro ( pean ) Statement backing Gold or y2k scare in this millenium.

Good to see a + ( plus ) sign above, I hope that it is not one step forward and two steps back..again.

Go Gold Go ( in the right direction ) ...

(Mon May 11 1998 11:06 - ID#342315)
John Disney re Gold Bonds
As the wave moves toward the Euro, my feeling is that where recipients of large volumes of currencies are preferring gold, they would be partial to some methods of obtaining gold besides going to market and buying with large volumes of currencies. To me , whatever method of obtaining gold dependably, besides going to market, beyond the foreseeable future would be the best. Today I can't see any such method, including Euro, that gives this assurance. If the Gold Bonds become available, this may be an answer. Comments appreciated. Thanx, Charlie

(Mon May 11 1998 11:10 - ID#31868)
Midas_A - your last post is patently riddled with logic gone wrong and flaws in
thinking. Gold, physical gold is being purchased in record amounts around the globe. While the media, banks and institutional houses are bad mouthing the metal or putting out COMPLETELY FALSE materials and quoting people either improperly, or worse yet creating pure fabrications, the fact remains, physical purchases are UP. Rare coins sales are UP.

Nothing about gold as a safe haven of an individuals savings has not changed one bit.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:14 - ID#225273)
To all:
Quote Com now shows WDEPY up 1 1/8 for the day. This is hardly consistent with the "collapse" in the precious metals we have seen this morning.
I'll be back with a good word in a few minutes.

The Preacher

(Mon May 11 1998 11:15 - ID#286230)
Midas. Steady-- you are getting close to the argument that gold is down because nobody wants it and it is being traded as a commodity.

With regard to:

"How can we expect the global population to look favourably on Gold when their Government and their Central Banks have talked down it's value"

I can't recall any statement in the public media where the "Government" has said anything much about gold for years. The average potential investor would be turned off after viewing the gold graph for the past 2 decades.

If someone had the time to search the Kitco archives ( and had the URL ) and then listed all the reasons gold was expected to go up over the last 3 years BART would have a real bandwidth problem. The one positive note here is that with mines closing the ease of supplying the stuff has decreased.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:16 - ID#284255)
With the PREM being the difference between the physical and the future - SP500 and SPM8.
What you watch it for is to get a feel of the bullishness/bearishness.

It was pointed out by Oldman that @ 8:30am on Friday that there was huge buying of the futures prior to opening.
This was indicative of a big rally.

There are better desciptions of the way the abitrage is worked than this.

Here are some links of T/A explanations;

Yes, many choose not to believe.
It is easier this way.
Easier to think that someone else will do the work.
Little do they know.

Ask Bill Gates - he doesn't want to know either.

It's the same with securing gold insurance.
Why? I don't believe you.
That couldn't happen.
Someone will save the day.
And gold will go nowhere.

Reality is perception
Perception is reality.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:18 - ID#317193)
Fundamentals, eh! Yes, gold is and has been a PRECIOUS metal since recorded time. Our current experiment doesn't change the fundamentals nor what the rest of the world holds as true.

Buy low and hold.


(Mon May 11 1998 11:20 - ID#31868)
sharefin - re:11:16 - So essentially what you are saying is...
No matter where you go, there you are?

(Mon May 11 1998 11:20 - ID#269409) love with the $300 level

(Mon May 11 1998 11:20 - ID#288186)
June Comex gold has hit a high of 302.10 so far. It's currently
around 301.80...July silver is still bouncing around 5.76 area...

(Mon May 11 1998 11:24 - ID#373403)
Gold loves $300. I love $300. The longer gold remains at $300, the more I can buy before the business cycle inverts.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:24 - ID#317193)
NAB. Tom

(Mon May 11 1998 11:25 - ID#31868)
TYoung - America is going to pay dearly in many, many ways for many years
to come. The election of the Coward Erect and his term in office will go down in history as one of the worst, NOT the best periods in the USA.

When the real numbers come out, when the backdoor realities are made known. On those days the historians will not enjoy their work as they enter the truth into the books those in the future will read.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:27 - ID#286230)
Here is why Canadians are particularly suited to Gold Investing

(Mon May 11 1998 11:36 - ID#284255)
Tolerant - yes - there you are
Reality, shapes our perception's of today - yes.
But perception's, cloud our vision, of reality, for tomorrow.

That is why you buy gold - yes?

You view the world through different coloured glasses,
Perceiving a different reality tomorrow.

Many cannot see this.
Too rational and not enough lateral thinking.
Ask LGB about alternative medicine? -
Echinacea? Ginko?

That is why I like; 'It doesn't get better than this'.
As a catchcry.

T'would, be no good, if I was normal or rational,
My perception, would not be the same.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:37 - ID#20135)
Going Up! All off for the 6%+ long bond...
11:39 6.04%

Let me see, increases in long are good for the DOW and that is why it is in rally mode? That's right isn't it? Of course, everything is a good reason for DOW rally mode, ooppps I forgot that.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:38 - ID#238295)
Just recieved the latest issue of the "Kent Davis Review'. This market letter is not widely known but has been quite accurate the last few years ( although they did turn bullish on gold too early )

Their current take on things. US and European financial markets enormously overvalued but no signs of a peak yet. Theu do expect the bull to end within the next 6 months though. Reasonable chance of Dow 10,000 before its all ovwr. But once the peak is in, it will stand for DECADES.

Once the bull does topple, AG and RR will crank u the printing presses to avoid a deflationary collapse. The result -- stagflation similar to the 1970s. The best possible environment gfor gold.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 11:40 - ID#384350)
When Supply and Demand don't meet
6pak, I enjoyed your post and link, May 09 12:28, on Soybeans.
There was a soybean shortage, yet the prices collapsed due to futures trading. That made me think of some other examples.

I met a man who owned a factory in the No. Eastern US. He complained that he couldn't find assembly workers for his plant. I asked how much he paid them, and he said they start at $4.80/hr and that goes up towards $9 for those who have been here a while.

$4.80 for a factory Job? And he wonders why he can't find workers!

Now, Silver and Gold have gone years with demand exceeding newly mined supply. Physical seems to be in short supply, you would think the price would rise. But in the face of futures derivative trading the price can be artificially manipulated.

Just like in the former Soviet Bloc or in NY rent-controlled apartments, when prices are artificially set too low by mandate, you see shortages, and not a rise in price.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:42 - ID#286230)
Old Gold: Apparently I agree with the Kent Davis Review. As I said a month or so ago a trip to just below 10 000 on the DOW is about as sure a thing as can be imagined. What happens after or just below 10 000 is the real question.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:43 - ID#20135)
Let's ee, if something silly happend and the long bond went to say 6.2%...

The last time that happened was in Oct 97,

Gold was at $340 per ounce
and the
DOW was at 8000.


(Mon May 11 1998 11:45 - ID#317193)
Calling all PPT members!
I know the market is up this morning BUT somebody better call the PPT. There going to need it.


(Mon May 11 1998 11:45 - ID#22956)
missing link
If I were to bring a bar ( or so ) of Platinum to your store...or one in my area do youse guys melt the stuff into jewelry or would I need to buy the metal from you? I am curious. In other words....If I bring in my own materials, stone and metal, will you craft me a ring?

Am I clear? Just curious.



(Mon May 11 1998 11:45 - ID#269409)
@ Bart...SIlver quote
There you go posting that "Ted Armstrong" spot price for Silver again!

(Mon May 11 1998 11:46 - ID#410215)
..... LGB .....

Silver spot 5.75 now.

It is

(Mon May 11 1998 11:46 - ID#269409)
Metals, metals, everywhere
Full story
Gold, silver looking to recover poise in Europe
10:59 a.m. May 11, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, May 11 ( Reuters ) - Gold was set to recover from testing levels
below $300.00 an ounce on Monday while silver was clawing its way back
after a big retreat earlier in the day, dealers said.

Gold was last quoted at $299.90/$300.40 from the previous close at
$299.60/$300.10. Bullion was fixed marginally lower in London in the
afternoon at $298.90 against the previous fix at $299.00.

``At the moment, the market is picking up nicely. There are a lot of shorts in
the market and they have been covering,'' one dealer said.

But dealers said the market was still looking at European central banks for
any news on the make-up of the reserves of the European Central Bank
( ECB ) .

``All eyes are still on the central banks in Europe and I think that the feeling
is coming through that nothing can be decided by any central bank until we
see what the ECB does, probably between now and July 1,'' the dealer said.

Silver struggled in early trade on Monday, touching lows of $5.75.

``Silver had a real bashing this morning, starting off about $6.00 and we
tumbled on good heavy selling from one particular source,'' the dealer said.

But he said silver recovered in later afternoon trade.

``Both gold and silver are looking to recover their poise,'' the dealer

(Mon May 11 1998 11:47 - ID#22956)
let's go Crudo!
I know.....obvious stuff, eh?

(Mon May 11 1998 11:49 - ID#410215)
..... LGB .....

Gold: 301

Platinum: 398

Palladium: 324

These are spot prices as of a few minutes ago


(Mon May 11 1998 11:49 - ID#22956)
get to work! I just called and your assistant said you weren't there yet........c'mon man! Go make some duckets!! find Monex-Dude

(Mon May 11 1998 11:51 - ID#31868)
EB - I can tell you from my experience that if you take in the materials they will
be more than happy to craft it for you. I have a friend who owns a shop and does all his own work. I take metal to him constantly to be crafted. I cannot wait to see Sheller drool over my latest platinum ring.

(Mon May 11 1998 11:51 - ID#340459)
I Look at History and see "Bronze Age"
IMHO and Hope, Gold might even pay ( for a change ) from now to y2k.

But any long term beyond this point may not convince me as most young people in their lifetime ( who will hold reins of power in future and will choose the economic path ) have not seen anybody buy anything in a Store with Gold or know of or witnessed Commercial trade ( s ) of goods and services through Gold. All they know is Paper or Digital money.

All the financial academia /organization ( s ) that teach the 'Art of Money' in their curricula and churn out future Bankers and Corporate Chiefs DO NOT teach about Gold going forward but only as look at History nor do these institutions look favourably on Gold in comparision to other investments as emphatically demonstrated through collective selling actions by Banks around the Globe. So wherefrom should we expect a 'golden future' for Gold as a Yuppie never had an option beyond "Cash or Charge" while procuring any asset including Gold

I will be out of this ( hopefully with a profit ) before the turn of the century. I have bought physical etc..since mid 1980's and have seen nothing but an arrow down and is running out of patience and built aspirations that have melted like Ice cream under Hot Sun.

Go Gold Go..

(Mon May 11 1998 11:52 - ID#427357)

A recent occurrence demands an immediate and through investigation to determine possible material damages to the public sector, and to determine if an official of the Federal Reserve Bank - his family and/or outside business affiliations - are in some way benefiting financially from his totally irresponsible remarks. I am specifically referring to the following posting at Kitco.

"On Thursday, 23 April the New York Chapter of the International Precious Metals Institute ( IPMI ) staged a debate between Dale Henderson of the Federal Reserve Board and Dick Ware of the Council's Centre for Public Policy Studies ( PPC ) . The debate centered around the former's controversial paper suggesting that global welfare would be significantly enhanced if central banks were to sell off all their gold. The paper claimed, completely implausibly, that the effect on the price of doing so would be a mere $40."

Firstly, let us consider the public monetary loss if Central Banks ( CB ) worldwide were to commit the malfeasance act of selling off its gold reserves. It is common knowledge that CB gold holdings are about 35,000 metric tonnes. This is approximately 1.12 billion ounces - which represents a value of $336 billion at the current price of $300/oz. In the event CBs - prompted by the reckless and irresponsible leadership of the FRB - began selling off its gold reserves, causing it value to plummet to $40 per ounce, the loss to the public sector would be horrendous and devastating.

CBs would most likely only be able to sell off a token amount before the gold price reached the $40 level mention by the Fed representative. To illustrate our example let's assume CBs were able to dump 10,000 tonnes before the price reached $40. Subsequently, CBs would be left holding the "bag" of 25,000 metric tonnes ( 804 million ounces ) - whose value now is a mere $32 billion. It is painfully obvious the public will have LOST $204 billion, due the grossly irresponsible and reckless act of CB malfeasance.

This is unconscionable and cannot not be tolerated - indeed even contemplated.

The suggestion that CB sell off the only real backing of it currency must be seriously be questioned if not investigated, because it lacks all common sense. Unless, of course the Fed representative has vested interest in the value of gold declining.

I submit that in the interest of the general public, the motives of the Fed's representative be closely scrutinized. With the U.S. national debt rapidly approaching $6 trillion, we can ill-afford irresponsibly cavalier remarks of a FRB representative in a public meeting.

One may only cringe at the thought of what dire ramifications his OTHER decisions might be causing in the discharge of his duties at the Fed.

Another obvious negative effect of selling off CB gold deposits would be to undermine the public's confidence in its currency. Perhaps, this might be what the Fed official has in mind when he makes such a rash and incautious remark?! Be this the case, I strongly urge that we all contact our regional Congressman to delve into the matter. Perhaps, I am very nave, but I do not believe that the Fed can unilaterally decide to weaken our currency.


(Mon May 11 1998 11:52 - ID#153102)
Mozel @ mozel (@Great Satan) ID#153102: Mon May 11 1998 01:02
"MOTHER EARTH"..Heathen ( strange-uncivilized ) term? eh Mozel.

"The social sense of criminal originated first in religions. All religions are about the society's and the individual's relationship to unseen powers greater than ourselves. By the nineteenth century the predictive demonstrations of Science began to contend in the West as a source of explanation for our relationship to the unseen powers operating in Nature."

Ecclesiastes; or, The Preacher.
Chapter 1
( 1 ) The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.
( 2 ) Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.
( 3 ) What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?
( 4 ) One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.
( 5 ) The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.
( 6 ) The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.
( 7 ) All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.
( 8 ) All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it; the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.
( 9 ) The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
( 10 ) Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.
( 11 ) There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
( 12 ) I the Preacher was king over Israel in Jerusalem.
( 13 ) And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.
( 14 ) I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.
( 15 ) That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is wanting cannot be numbered.
Chapter 2 ( 11 )
Then I looked on all the works that my hands had wrought, and on the labour that I had laboured to do: and, behold, all was vanity and vexation of spirit, and there was no profit under the sun.

.......For America to live, Europe must DIE

Nazi SS guards did it to concentration camp inmates. Cops do it. Corporation leaders do it to the workers they send into uranium mines and steel mills. Politicians do it to everyone in sight. And what the process has in common for each group doing the dehumanizing is that it makes it all right to kill and otherwise destroy other people.

One of the Christian commandments says, "Thou shalt not kill," at least not humans, so the trick is to mentally convert the victims into nonhumans.

Then you can proclaim violation of your own commandment as a virtue.

FWIW.......GREAT SATAN ???.............Take Care

(Mon May 11 1998 11:54 - ID#224149)
9 Billion Dollar Deal

HOLLYWOOD ( Variety ) - Seagram is in advanced talks with Philips Electronics to acquire its Polygram music arm, and sources said a deal could be closed within weeks. Both stocks are halted and way up .

(Mon May 11 1998 11:57 - ID#22956)
A gulp to ya'..... ( gulp ) . Now, would they melt coinage? Old beat up crappy ones....although I have never really met a crappy coin ( grin ) . the jeweler

(Mon May 11 1998 11:58 - ID#408236)
@ALL: talk about a millenium bug, I heard that DOW linked stop loss programmes have a 4 digit
maximum. That means that when the DOW adds one more point to 9999, the next number that stop loss programs are going to see is 0000. This would trigger every stop loss order on the market. This sounds pretty far fetched to me, any comments from Kitcoites?

(Mon May 11 1998 12:00 - ID#31868)
EB - yes they will melt coinage.
I have two mapleleafs and a couple of platinum Koalas on my fingers to prove it.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:09 - ID#153102)
The commandment is Thou shalt not murder.

The killer is to have his measure of death for the measure of death he given. Those who would live by the sword deserve to die by it.

And the MOTHER EARTH shall give her bounty forth in pain as any birthing woman who brings life into this world. Long live hot and cold running water.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:10 - ID#269409)
Ig Nobel prize..changing base metals into Gold (and magic water..)
Many readers of this magazine will no doubt recall the 1988 fiasco of so-called "memory water" ( SI, Winter 1989 ) .
According to French biochemist Jacques Benveniste, water that once contained an antigen could somehow "remember" the
biological effects of the antigen even after being diluted so greatly that not even a single molecule of the substance was likely
to remain. If this principle is correct, then a single aspirin tablet dropped into the world's oceans would convey to every drop
of ocean water the ability to cure headaches. The respected journal Nature cautiously published the paper by Benveniste and
others ( Nature 333: 816, June 30, 1988 ) because it could not identify the suspected flaw yielding their improbable result. The
matter was then investigated firsthand in Benveniste's lab by Nature editor John Maddox, NIH chemist Walter Stewart, and
magician James Randi. They found major irregularities in the lab's procedures ( Nature 334: 287, July 28, 1988 ) , and for the
past nine years the matter has been considered closed, except among the true believers in homeopathy.

But far from admitting defeat, a defiant Benveniste recently challenged the skeptics in a large Internet mailing. In it he boasts,
"In our lab, this research has now reached a point way beyond the `memory of water.' We have, we believe, unveiled the
hitherto neglected physical nature of the molecular signal, which consists of waves in the kilohertz range, which we have
recorded on computers, and sent to any destination of our choice via the Internet network." Yes, he is claiming that water not
only has a "memory," but that he can store this memory in his computer, and even send it out over the Internet. By way of
proof, Benveniste provides the following:

Abstract to the Congress of the American Association of Immunologists ( San Francisco, February 1997 )


J. Aefssa, P. Jurgens, W. Hsueh and J. Benveniste. Digital Biology Lab-oratory ( DBL ) , 32 rue des Carnets, 92140 Clamart,
France, and North-western University Medical School, Chicago, IL 60614, USA.

Ligands so dilute that no molecule remained still retained biological activity which could be abolished by magnetic fields
[1-3], suggesting the electromagnetic ( EM ) nature of the molecular signal. This was confirmed by the electronic transfer
to water ( W ) of molecular activity, directly or after computer storage [4-7]. Here, we report its telephonic transfer.
Ovalbumin ( Ova ) , or W as control, was recorded ( 1 sec, 16 bits, 22 kHz ) in Chicago using a transducer and computer with
soundcard. Coded files were transferred to DBL's computer as e-mail "attached documents." Digitally amplified, they were
replayed for 20 min to W ( dOva, dW ) , which was then perfused to isolated hearts from Ova-immunized guinea-pigs. . . .

Benveniste claims that physiological effects of the diluted substance were manifested in those organisms receiving his
homeopathy-at-a-distance. If he is correct, in the future your doctor, roused from bed, won't tell you to "take two aspirins and
call me in the morning," but will instead send you e-mail, with the appropriate antigen as an attached document, which gets
played through your sound card to work its vibrational miracles. Benveniste complained in his mail missive, "Clearly, the
shortsightedness of two high priests of Orthodox Science [John Maddox and Walter Stewart] and a prestidigitator [Randi] have
delayed this advance in chemistry and biology by ten years."

Another advance in science receiving belated recognition involves Professor John Bockris of Texas A&M University, who was
recently awarded the celebrated Ig Nobel Prize for Physics by the Annals of Improbable Research at Harvard. Bockris is a
leading researcher in the field of cold fusion whose accomplishments have been prominently featured in Infinite Energy
magazine. However, the prize was actually awarded for his experiments demonstrating the chemical transmutation of base
metals into silver and gold. Bockris did not travel to Cambridge to pick up his prize.

The money to fund Texas A&M University's 1993 ventures into alchemical research was donated by William Telander. The
Houston Chronicle reported last April 3 that Telander was recently released from prison after serving two years for securities
fraud. The university still holds $45,000 of his original $200,000 donation, and Telander wants it back unless it is used for its
intended purpose -- funding Bockris's experiments. The university, however, has frozen the funds, apparently as nervous
about funding more alchemy as it is about returning the money.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:11 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Silver, gold, and the XAU fell near to their respective trendline-support areas this morning. Gold and the XAU have bounced; silver has yet to do so.
Although I'm not yet prepared to call this a major turn in the precious metals market, it does represent a fairly safe entry point in that if it breaks down, prices won't fall far before the breakdown is apparent.

In gold, the trendline that connects the January and March lows sits now at $296. You can buy gold here and sell if that trendline is penetrated.

In silver, the trendline that connects the Aug. '97 and Nov. '97 lows now sits at $5.67. The price is not far from it. Silver and silver stocks can now be bought with an eye to sell if this trendline is penetratedl.

In the XAU, the trendline that connects the Jan-Mar-Apr '98 lows now sits at 80. The price fell below 83 last week but couldn't make it that low today. The senior gold stocks can be bought with an eye to sell if the XAU trendline is penetrated.

As far as retracements go, gold has retraced almost 50% of its Jan-Apr rally.
In late March, silver had retraced about 60% of its Aug '97 - Feb '98 rally. This decline has not taken out the March low. This could very well be the end of the line for the silver retracement.
The XAU only retraced 37% of its Jan-Apr '98 rally. Sometimes that is enough.

I did well with BGO in Feb-Mar. I'm getting back in the market now around C$3.40.
As for silver stocks, Pan American Silver trades on Toronto at C$13.50 and Coeur d'Alene trades on the NYSE at 10.75. I like these two silver stocks best for trading.

Go gold! Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Mon May 11 1998 12:12 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant1.....All that melted Platinum
Gives new meaning to the words "Heavy handed"

(Mon May 11 1998 12:12 - ID#410198)
Hi guys I'am back from Colarado,the land of guns,gold and God...the natives are getting restless
the message is getting through,when the Y2K hits the fan it's only us that will survive....the liberals and commies will have to fight it out ...........even Billy Graham mentioned this Saturday in New Mexico.......who cares what spot is I"AM BUYING GOLD AND LOTS OF IT

(Mon May 11 1998 12:13 - ID#286279)
TYoung @ BLAH
Doesn't sound very exciting; but then it's not very risky either, eh?

Buy Low And Hold.

I love it.


(Mon May 11 1998 12:18 - ID#269409)
@ Forget Brass Knuckles
Knock yer opponents senseless with the much denser and harder "Platinum Knuclkes"...on sale now by "LGB Enterprises" for just $9,999.00 ( Free Tenth Oz. American Eagle with every purchase )

(Mon May 11 1998 12:19 - ID#254269)
No inflation ...... but Post Office wants 1 cent increase. Sounds like a 3 % increase to a

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 12:23 - ID#384350)
dillution relates to Percentage ownership
Say a company had 1 million ounces of Gold as sole asset and no liabilities. It has 1 million shares outstanding as well. Thus, each share is roughly worth 1 ounce of Gold.

Now let's say you owned 10% of this companies shares which are only trading at $200/sh. You think they are worth at least the spot price of gold at $300, and you are speculating that the spot price of Gold was going to double or triple in the coming years.

What would you think if the company offered for sale at $200/sh another 1 million new shares ( 2M in all ) , and invested the proceeds in US Treasuries earning 6%?

Your interest in ownership at first represented 1 oz. of Gold per share ( worth $300/sh ) . Now, it represents  oz. of Gold and $100 cash in US Treasuries ( worth $250 ) .

Your ownership of the company was dilluted from 10% to 5%. What is important is the underlying value in relation to the offering price. In the above example, you might not have minded if the new shares were issued for $400/sh, when worth only $300 based on spot.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 12:23 - ID#384350)
Midas, Euro Announcement on Reserves
At the weekend of the Duisenberg Announcement/concession, I saw on the news an interview with some financial commentator who said with all the mess of picking a head for the European Central Bank ( 12 hour lunches ) , the announcement on reserves would be likely pushed back a month.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:25 - ID#194311)
Camdessus world's biggest paper hanger should be hung...
Don't blame IMF for Indonesian bloodshed: Camdessus
Followup-To: biz.clarinet.sample

SINGAPORE, May 11 ( AFP ) - International Monetary Fund ( IMF )
chief Michel Camdessus has dismissed charges that IMF polices may
have caused bloodshed in Indonesia, saying past mistakes by the
government are to blame.
"Don't put the blame on the doctor for the illness," the IMF
managing director said in a pre-recorded interview with Singapore
television station TCS5, broadcast late Sunday.
Press reports in Indonesia say up to eight people have died
since demonstrations and looting erupted last week over higher fuel
prices. The hikes result from the lifting of subsidies as part of
reforms demanded by the IMF in exchange for 40 billion dollars in
bailout funds.
Asked if there was a direct effect between IMF policies and
social unrest, Camdessus disagreed and pointed to "the mistakes
which have made necessary these strong adjustment measures."
"Certainly, if the economy is in bad shape, the government has
some responsibility for it," said Camdessus, who visited Singapore
last week to open a regional economic training institute.
But he expressed confidence in the new cabinet put together by
Indonesian President Suharto, for whom he had the "highest trust and
"The new team gives us the impression that it is professional
and strongly committed to the agreement," he said.
Indonesia is now in its third reform programe with the IMF in
six months after two previous deals fell through. It has pledged to
end cartels and monopolies, some controlled by Suharto's family and
friends, as part of the reform plan.
"What I observe is that he is implementing ( in a stronger
manner ) the program which has been agreed upon," Camdessus said of
Asked what action the Washington-based IMF would take in case of
further bloodshed, Camdessus said: "The IMF is not the policeman of
the world, sir. The IMF is there to negotiate economic programs and
to have economic programs implemented."
"For human rights, go to the ( United Nations ) . The address is in
Geneva, not Washington," he said.
Camdessus said the believed that the IMF, which has 183 member
economies, has the "unanimous support of our membership" for what it
is doing, and described his two-fold task.
"I must convince countries which are in severe difficulty that
if they do the right thing, we will help them, and they must be
confident that this will work, there is a silver lining," he said.
"Simultaneously, I must give confidence to all the other
countries, that this given country, even if it is at the bottom of
the abyss, can go out and emerge fitter and stronger provided the
rest of the world helps it," Camdessus added.
He described as "nonsense" the criticism that the IMF may have
triggered a loss of confidence in Indonesia after sounding an alarm
over the country's banking system. Sixteen Indonesian banks have
been shut down.
"When you have 16 banks which are totally bankrupt, which are
only instruments for everything but proper credit distribution, then
if you want to put the economy on its own feet, the only responsible
thing you can do is to close those banks," he said.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:29 - ID#177146)
I've been totally out of touch for six weeks. What happened to RANGY. Looks like it is out of touch with the other S.A. gold stocks.

Someone please provide a good briefing!

(Mon May 11 1998 12:31 - ID#227290)
Six Pak & Perspective
Six Pak,
I read your quotes from The Preacher with great interest. I'm not sure how you reached your conclusion, but I think you might have missed that The Preacher was at first looking at life the way you seemingly look at it: without acknowledgement of God and His commandments.
In the end, though, The Preacher came to his senses and realized that all was not vanity. And he concluded his treatise with the words: "Let us hear the conclusion of the whole matter: Fear God, and keep his commandmentsl; for this is the whole duty of man."

I hope that you, like him, will come to realize this.

Secondly, I read your words:
"Nazi SS guards did it to concentration camp inmates. Cops do it. Corporation leaders do it to the workers they send into uranium mines and steel mills. Politicians do it to everyone in sight. And what the process has in common for each group doing the dehumanizing is that it makes it all right to kill and otherwise destroy other people.

"One of the Christian commandments says, "Thou shalt not kill," at least not humans, so the trick is to mentally convert the victims into nonhumans."

I think that you are dehumanizing Nazi SS guards, cops, corporation leaders, miners, and politicians. After all, these are just people like you and me. The trick is not to avoid becoming a military man, a cop, corporation leader, miner, or politician, but to perform these tasks in life while fearing God and keeping his commandments.
Sorry, but I think you have confused "station in life" with "morality in station."

The dictum: "For America to live... Europe must die" does not represent any absolute moral truth or perspective. It probably comes from the mouth of someone who is viewing the world and events in it the way The Preacher did before he began considering it in light of God's commandments.
Perhaps with the current dishonest paper money system that's in place, for America to live, Europe must die. But all this tells us is that the current system needs total replacement. It is not a statement of any ultimate moral truth.

I could go on, but I'll stop here.

The Preacher

(Mon May 11 1998 12:32 - ID#335190)
To All @ Kitco
I am sorry for having posted Ecclesiastes @ 11:52. I should have known better. After I sent the post, and knew I had down wrong. Again, to all I am sorry. Monday morning thing. eh!
Take Care

(Mon May 11 1998 12:34 - ID#224149)
Welcome to the Machine --Says All
C$ is up with no Gold backing ---Strange Keep knocking the C$ ---I like it ---I like it ---Away to watch silver ----Such a disgrace.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:35 - ID#269409)
Definition of 2% inflation
You folks who think we have inflation are confused. It runs only 1 or 2% a year this whole decade. After all...I need merely look at my own personal situation. Since 1990 I have seen;

* Homes in my area increase a mere $150,000 in value ( approx. 75% )
* Social security payments rise by approx. 30% ( as ceiling rises yearly )
* Medical insurance premium payments rise 100%, with no change in coverage
* Heating and electric rates rise approx. 40%
* Price of a new mid size car up a mere 40%
* Food prices rise approx. 35%
* Hourly rates for virtually all service orgs. such as Auto repair and plumbing services have risen by approx. 40%

However, ignoring all the above, stereo equipment, Gold, and cheap suits at K-Mart have all fallen in price during the decade so obviously we have no inflation.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:36 - ID#252127)
Anglo announcement out of Peru is baloney and more bullfeces

For European CB's to say that they will not sell gold in the near future, is like saying they will sell next month.
In all; CB efforts in pushing down the gold price by announcing gold sales, gold loans and making them media events have probably lowered the value of European CB reserves by about $50 billion dollars. Billions that would soon stand behind their Euro. It makes no sense, unless they are in cohoots with the shorts.

Today looks like a good chance for Buffet and others who believe that silver is in short supply to purchase more.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:37 - ID#153102)
@Ancestor of LGB
when confronted by evidence from a new invention, called the microscope, closes eyes and says Blah, Blah, Blah or Baa, Baa, Baa, depending on his audience.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:38 - ID#288156)
Keeping the media honest--China Cotton Sales, Policy Change? NOT!

China cotton policy likely to trim imports
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuters

HONG KONG ( November 21, 1997 12:17 p.m. EST ) - China's policy to promote the use of home-grown cotton by textile
mills through tax breaks was getting off to a slow, uneven start but would probably cut into cotton imports,traders said on Friday.

They said China was forecast to import up to three million bales of cotton before the new policy, but now imports could be cut
by 500,000 to 1.5 million bales over the next year.

"Many people think we will see a year of reduced imports into China," one trader said.

Beijing embarked on the policy this summer in an effort to draw down
a huge stockpile of cotton produced in China's northwestern region
of Xinjiang.

Since imported cotton was cheaper than Xinjiang cotton, the
government said joint-venture mills which used the home-grown
cotton would receive full refunds on a 17-percent value-added
tax ( VAT ) on the finished textiles they exported.

"It is a good policy that helps to liquidate existing old stock," one cotton trader said."

Perhaps the more interesting question regarding the sales is, "In what
currency are the deals being done? {:- )

(Mon May 11 1998 12:42 - ID#335190)
Mozel & Preacher

I was stupid to have mentioned the religion. Live and learn. No conflict if one will not engage in the madness. Yes, I stand aside, the world as you know it, I give to you.
FWIW....Take Care................... Go Gold

(Mon May 11 1998 12:45 - ID#269409)
@ Arguments from Ignorance
Mozel...poster boy for the article "Open Minds and Arguments from Ignorance" ....

Bif difference between inquiring open minds and stupidity I'm afraid.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:48 - ID#269409)
(Pssst Mozel...)
I got a new invention for ya that changes Iron into Gold... it'll make ya rick and no one will know but us..... Just $9,999,999 this week only...Shhhhhhh...don't tell...I'll throw in some free "Healing magnets", some "Power crystals", A Shaman charm, and some Magic Homeopathic water free.....

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 12:49 - ID#24135)
He could use a hot patch
For Mozel
Gum boots go back to the OLD RUBBER

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 12:52 - ID#24135)
Reading the papers
1 . ABX may use Anglgold to manage its African interests.
ABX board approval is required. It is also possible
that Anglos may ultimately acquire ABX's African

2. RSA lauches project to study feasibility of "ultra
deep " drilling. Depths from 3000 to 5000 meters will
be considered. Project name --- "DEEPMINE"

(Mon May 11 1998 12:54 - ID#31868)
I think the RSA is secretly drilling sideways and making an attempt to get all
that gold and silver in Australia. A daring plan.

(Mon May 11 1998 12:55 - ID#153102)
@Oh Preacher Tell Me This
General Yamashita, "a foreign enemy alien", was sentenced to death in Manilla for war crimes. He sued for habeas corpus and prohibition to the US Supreme Court. Even though he never ordered his troops to commit crimes against humanity, it was held that "a superior officer is responsible for the acts of his subordinates."

Now, General is a title of an officer. And the subordinates of Attorney GENERAL Reno murdered women and children. BUT, WHERE IS JUSTICE DONE ?

YOU CANNOT SERVE AN EVIL GOVERNMENT WITH MORALITY. YOU CANNOT SERVE WITH "MORALITY IN STATION." Is only the murderer guilty and not the man who bound the victim so his throat could be more easily cut ? WHEN MEN ARE UNJUSTLY CONFINED, THEY HAVE BEEN DEAD FOR THAT TIME.

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 12:57 - ID#24135)
Pssst ... leaky nasty..
You said mozel..
"Bif difference between inquiring open minds and
stupidity I'm afraid."

Yes ... Mozel has an inquiring open
mind and you are stupid. There is a
BIG difference.
.. and whats a "bif"???

John B__A
(Mon May 11 1998 13:01 - ID#77133)
Thanks for your technical analysis. If we think that gold is in a basic intermediate or long-term uptrend, then this is the time to buy since stocks as ABX, NGC, HM and others this past Thursday were at very crucial technical support levels.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:06 - ID#225273)

I don't understand the question. I saw a couple of different questions, but couldn't connect them to some of statements.
Could you please clarify what it is you would like me to tell you?

The Preacher

(Mon May 11 1998 13:07 - ID#427357)

I see a very bullish price chart of DROOY ( Durban Deep ) - after reading my analysis it might prove profitable to peek at the chart located at the URL below.

My short-term view is dependent on gold NOT cratering in the next couple of weeks - if it does all bets are off. Here's what I see in the DROOY chart.

Since mid-March this year to mid-April DROOY zoomed nearly 70% - to its intra-day high. In the last couple of weeks, it has - understandably - been consolidating. Interestingly, the price chart is forming a classic book example of a pennant - a spike up forming the post, followed by sharply diminishing volume as the pennant unfolds downward on lower prices.

TA predicts that a breakout of the pennant ON-VOLUME provides a measuring target of about 4 7/16. That would represent a gain of nearly 40% from its close of 3 7/32. Please recall successful pennant breakouts usually meet their price target in a very short period. HEY, a 40% gain is no big deal, but it's better than a poke in the eye with sharp stick.

Here's the DROOY price chart:

(Mon May 11 1998 13:08 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re Fed Man's Comments
With all the insiders ( govt ) cleaning up on pre comment positions, I would bet you're are right. I'll be in touch with Jesse Helms. Good catch, Charlie

(Mon May 11 1998 13:09 - ID#225273)
Good thinking. I would like to see the weekly stochastics on gold and the XAU down where they are on the silver chart.
But in strongly trending markets, the stochastics don't get to low levels for a very long time.
Still, I'm not as agressive here as I would be if the stochastics were in the lower part of the range.
In a bull market, the surprises are to the upside, generally.
This market is as before. So we watch for the signs.

The Preacher

(Mon May 11 1998 13:09 - ID#212197)
@mozel: Pagan Virtues
You keep praising to us the Judeo-Christian values. Historically, viewed in the right sequence of events, the pagan virtues and values were first. Christianity, the bloodthirsty branch, grown out of Judaism, was not able to completely destroy all the values of the gentile cultures and peoples which it invaded.

Many proud Germanic tribes faught against Charles the Great by entering the battlefield with the slogan: "Rather dead than slave". Does that remind you of some values of the American Founding Fathers?

Others are famous of having anwerde to the question: "Who is your king", with the answer: "We are all kings. So talk to all of us publicly."
Does that remind you of your own words, recently used, when you explained the feudal ( i.e., christian ) rights of feudal kings upon all the land?

Most of the ancient European peoples lived in a social culture called "peasant- warriors". They had elected leaders. That was in pre-feudal, pre-christian times.

I am the decendent of a "free-peasant court", it is the oldest documented "Freibauernhof" in Bavaria. My ancesters had their own court system, had the right to carry weapons, were excempt of paying taxes to the aristocracy and to the church ( ! ) , and were allowed to grow their hair long ( as sign of their freedom ) .

One thing is for certain: these free peasants ( no matter if they came from Scottland, from Ireland, from Bavaria, from Switzerland, you name it ) did not misuse religion for power purposes. Maybe, that's why they were finally defeated, but their spirit remained unbroken. And I am completely convinced, they brought their inherited sense for freedom with them, when they came to America.

I would appreciate, if you would explain your values, which I highly treasure, without reference to any religious fanatism. You don't need that. Look back to your true roots. These are much older than Y2K.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Mon May 11 1998 13:11 - ID#269409)
@ Disney
Yes, in spite of your many desperate and obsessive attempts to draw me into a foodfight, I will continue to ignore your pointless insults as you never offer anything of value to the discussion topic at hand.

Quite apparently you have a thing for me, and are quite frustrated. Also apparent, is that you give new meaning to the phrase....

"Hell hath no fury as a WOMAN scorned"

(Mon May 11 1998 13:12 - ID#246224)
Y2K preparations
Have contracted with local farmer to plant 2 acres non-hybrid corn for seed crop. Yield to be used to replant next year - possibly 150 acres at that time ( we'll see what things look like then ) .

This GOLDen crop of corn may save a few lives if things turn nasty.

Have contacted Canadian processor who will sell hard red spring wheat at 225 C$ per metric tonne. Works out to about US$ 95 per cwt. Grandon is the variety name, a 'Minnesota' self-raising type. Good for bread baking. Can replant this no problem.

Am looking into diesel gen-set, large oil tank, etc.

Solar power with gen-set as backup charger ( all automatic ) .

And of course cash and the PMs.

Just a few steps ahead of the crowd ... and LGB.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:14 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re details
Many thanx again. As I see it, minute to minute, the prem goes according to the dow. In reference to the recent numbers, If I buy at 400 or less and sell at 500 or more, will this give enough results to break even plus?

(Mon May 11 1998 13:15 - ID#224149)
Someone lost their horse
Mountie Still available So many Gold buyers out in the real world ---The next best joke Go droopy before you become loopy doopy Away to find Gold buyers

(Mon May 11 1998 13:18 - ID#333127)
Barrick anx Newmont gold stks both looking good today.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:24 - ID#286234)
Allen (USA)
I hope you grow or have plans to grow heritage beans.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:28 - ID#269409)
@ Diszzyyy
However, in the interest of free speech, feel free to continue your obsessive, ad hominum, content starved, "insult" posts, in perpetuity ad nauseum. They certainly say far more about you than they do me.

I realize that when you have no knowledge of the subject matter which Mozel and I are discussing, pointless insults are all you'll be able to contribute, yes? Such tactics are quite consistent with those who have small minds, and even smaller reasoning abilities. Where thought processes are lacking, and you have zero to contribute on a matter of debate, then simple mindless insults will do eh JD? Ahhh, the stuff of 2 year olds.

Tell you what though, when you grow up, and want to couch your insults within the context of something substantive on these matters, you and I can compare credentials, life goals, accomplishments, resumes, and then proceed to debate the topics I've commented on involving science, medicine, and reason. Until then, please be so kind as to stick to your SA Mining share reports...... A good man should know his limitations JD..... and I'm sure you're a good man.

Gold & Silver...... great topics.... love the site. Yes, Gold & Silver & currencies...mining shares...all things economic ....these fascinating topics interest us all, but in the long run, they do constitue a very SMALL percentage of our overall well being. A mere minority fraction of our overall lifestyle. A tiny sliver of what brings meaning to our existence...yes indeedy

(Mon May 11 1998 13:30 - ID#246224)
Yes. But it is easier for me to do that then to grow large quantities of corn properly. Thanks.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:30 - ID#373403)
I would be happy to craft your metal for you. I use peoples gemstones and metal all the time. Here is the problem though. My casting equipment is not rated for platinum so I send this out and buy from the caster. I would have to contact him or others about casting your metal. Of course if they did, you would end up with the sprues which I could roll out and fabricate.


(Mon May 11 1998 13:35 - ID#269409)
@ Dizzzyyyyy
Of course, I am at least relieved, to see that in the matter of VooDoo and Nonsense vs. Science and Reason, you align yourself on the side of the fence on which you clearly belong.

This fact confirms Newtonian theories of "things" being in their proper places, ( not to mention the Second law of Thermodynaics, which paraphrased, states that things are constantly deteriorating ) and thus affords those of us interested in science, great comfort that the "rules" remain intact.


(Mon May 11 1998 13:37 - ID#31868)
sam - I forgot to thank you for the clock download.
So Thanks...and a gulp of Mexico's finest to ya, gulp...

(Mon May 11 1998 13:38 - ID#373403)
Back on a mean streak with silver bottoming. I have analyzed your behavior and find an 84% inverse correlation with your willingness to pick fights and the value of your investment portfolio.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:39 - ID#269409)
RE Dizzy...Apologies to forum
Sorry to waste bandwidth, but the Dizzy Dude just refuses to take my many hints that I'm not interested.... Must be the slwo newsday in metals eh? So as my final word to him ( which he obviously did not heed for the past few days straight ) I'll just repost what I posted last Friday, and leave it at that..... ( back to the precious stuff now... )

Date: Fri May 08 1998 13:03
LGB ( @ Dizzy... ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Re your 12:38...While I suppose I should be flattered by your intensely obsessive, and desperate attempts to get
my attention...what with you posting some 25 or 30 "insult" posts and comments in a couple days directed my

May I just suggest that if you couched your insults into the context of some kind of subject matter, as I try and
do, rather than simple schoolyard, ad hominum, anal retentive, name calling, it would be a lot more interesting,

At first I found your contant stream of inslut posts amusing, if not very creative...however, now I simply yawn
or pass over them , since they have no other content associated with them..I can imagine how bored everyone
else has become with the ceaseless, compulsive diatribe.

So, my suggestion is...leave the comedy to minds that are more creative than yours, and try going back to your
SA mining share comments...a subject you at least know something about. And try to get over my taking a leak
on your crud encrusted gummy boots will ya? ..this obsessive compulsive behaviour on your part, surely
warrants therapy my "King of the mindless insult post" friend.

Now, in deference to the forum, and since I'm already trying Bart's patience with the medical debate posts.....
I'll waste no further words on your silly insult posts. Carry on with your Mining share stuff dude.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:41 - ID#31868)
I thank whoever posted this, but I think many may find it useful in dealing with Y2K

(Mon May 11 1998 13:42 - ID#254269)
Gene Inger's latest update;

(Mon May 11 1998 13:47 - ID#269409)
@ Missing Link...Moi mean?
May it never be! You must needs read back to Friday and earlier to see why I post as I do. It's them "Ears that bite!" I tell ya! The Dizzy One just plain refused to stop buzzing in my ear like a gnat that needs swatting.....and continue to buzz today, even on topics where he has Zero to contribute and Zero to say. Thus I'd enjoy seeing him return to his Mining share posts and leave the other 99.99% of the topics of interest in this world, to those who have the neurons to pursue them.

A simple comparison of Friday's "attack" posts, posts which had no other point at all really other than pointless personal attack....will quickly reveal who needs the policing here.....yes? Now when Dizzzy is ready to reveal his expertise on the topics he choose to insult me over, modern medicine and science vs. Voodoo nonsense, I'll be happy to civilly debate the poor, obviously frustrated, gentleman, in gentlemanly fashion, yes?

(Mon May 11 1998 13:48 - ID#31868)
TNX and FSR have been screaming buy me!!! all day long
so I am.

Dave in CO
(Mon May 11 1998 13:51 - ID#229103)
John Disney
Don't be too harsh with Leaky Gum Boot considering the destiny of the Lambs of the Giant Bubble.

(Mon May 11 1998 13:54 - ID#254269)
Gene Inger's latest update ; (second attempt)

(Mon May 11 1998 13:55 - ID#31868)
Avalon - the link works
you just have to click full text view to see the link is all...

(Mon May 11 1998 13:58 - ID#153102)
@Preacher @Alberich
Preacher Tell me the price of gold next week in the a.m., for if you know that, it is the sum of your knowledge for me.
@Alberich The word Fremote you may find in Bouvier's 1856 dictionary of the law. You may add it to your arsenal.
In England in the common-law was merged the precepts of Christianity and the precepts of the ancient, unlegislated law of the Angles and the Saxons. All the freedom there is in this world comes from those roots of which you speak. But, lest ye forget, I mention it only to remind you those roots were replenished by men of the light, enlightened men.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:00 - ID#269409)
@ DaveInCO
Now that's more like it! At least mix a little clever humor and creativity into the hit post! Dizzy could take lessons from you and do much better Dave.

( PS, I sold all my broad market Equities last August...Me thinks the bubble is a real thing "pop"... )

(Mon May 11 1998 14:04 - ID#254269)
tol 1; thanks, for some reason I cannot acces it now. but that's not important.
important that others can.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:04 - ID#288186)
June gold @ 301.40
July Silver @ 5.75
June T-Bond @ 119/08

(Mon May 11 1998 14:06 - ID#267344)
mozel - chill out, dude!
Take it easy - your starting to sound like a self righteous bastard.
- c

(Mon May 11 1998 14:07 - ID#269409)
After hours attack on Silver.......loses steam
Methinks the bearish sentiment was unable to carry the day in further bloodletting. Still curious about RJ's big buyer rumor...could this be the support we see at $5.75?

Monday May 11, 12:04 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals mixed at midsession

NEW YORK, May 11 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were
mixed at midsession Monday, with silver off sharply overnight on heavy fund selling,
traders said.

At 1126 EDT, COMEX July silver was at $5.775 an ounce, down 18.7 cents, traded
$5.740 to $5.980.

In the bullion market, spot silver was quoted at $5.78/81 against the fix at $5.79 and
Friday's New York close of $5.96/99.

``Most of the action in the silver market took place overnight,'' said one floor trader.
``There was almost no volume in the silver pit. The funds hammered this market in
Europe overnight. We hit some stops and down we went. We've barely moved since the
opening bell.''

July silver had been trading in a range between $6.07 and $6.50 for the better part of July,
before breaking down last week. long positions by funds, traders said. Lending from the
Middle East and Far East flipped the forward spreads back into contango. And by
Monday, stops had been hit at $5.85 an ounce, traders said.

COMEX silver stocks fell 10,026 ounces to 890,857,746 ounces in Friday's report, while
gold stocks were unchanged at 706,683 ounces.

COMEX June gold was $301.70 an ounce, up $1.00 from Friday, trading between $299.10
and $302.10 an ounce.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $300.60/1.10 an ounce, compared to the
London Friday afternoon fix at $298.90, and the New York close Thursday around

Implied lease rates for gold were little changed around 1.04 pct per annum for one month
and 1.92 pct for 12 months.

July gold has been consolidating in a range between $297.80 and $302.00 an ounce for the
last three sessions.

In the platinum group metals ( PGM ) markets, NYMEX July platinum was $395.50 an
ounce, down 50 cents, while NYMEX June palladium was $302.00, up $4.10 an ounce.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:08 - ID#286234)
Tolerant1 @ Clox
You're welcome, and a chug back at ya.

All: T1 is referring to this handy little, free doodad

Find antipodean Kitcoite's time & day easily.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:12 - ID#153102)
Yes, I suppose I am.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:15 - ID#339274)
FWIW Reduced spread is indicative of gold's bearish sentiment and
lower prices to come.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:34 - ID#34883)

(Mon May 11 1998 14:37 - ID#257136)
M.B.A.s in practice. Alittle humor!

A Japanese company and a California company decided to have a canoe race on the Columbia
river. Both teams practiced hard and long to reach their peak performance before the race. On
the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.

Afterwards, the California team became very discouraged and depressed. The management of the
California company decided that the reason for the crushing defeat had to be found. A
"Measurement Team," made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend
appropriate action.

Their conclusion was that the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the
Californians had 1 person rowing and 8 people steering. So the management of the California
company hired a consulting company and paid them incredible amounts of money. They advised
that too many people were steering the boat and not enough people were rowing.

To prevent losing to the Japanese again next year, the rowing team's management structure was
totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 3 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant
superintendent steering manager. They also implemented a new performance system that would
give the 1 person rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called the "Rowing
Team Quality First Program," with meetings, dinners and free pens for the rower. "We must give
the rower empowerment and enrichment through this quality program."

The next year the Japanese won by 2 miles. Humiliated, the management of the California
company laid off the rower for poor performance, halted development of a new canoe, sold the
paddles and canceled all capital investments for new equipment. Then they used the money saved
by giving a
High Performance Award to the steering managers and distributed the rest of the money as
bonuses to the senior executives.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon May 11 1998 14:50 - ID#347267)
Gold (The subject of this Forum)
Tks SilverB for reply re Gold Forecaster ( note free updates Tues and Thurs ) . Agree on 80 as support level for XAU; this is also supported by looking at the bottom formation which has now formed as a 2-3 month duration "bullish" triangle, with the horizontal top at 79-80 from which the breakout occurred. The classical scenario for such a breakout calls for a return to the breakout line ( or near ) before the real move upward begins. IMO we are very near. Todays action still bothersome as the 301 spot level was again bounced off of; at least the 297 lower level was not retested. This may still happen and could correspond with the more significant 79-80 XAU range. If spot does break through the apparently well protected 301 barrier, IMO we may be off to the races.

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

(Mon May 11 1998 14:55 - ID#25171)
If you consider price action in NEWMONT MINING today, it is showing that price goes up with heavy volume and then goes back down in light volume.It has been like that in the past few weeks and suggests accumulation by a few strong hands and selling by intraweek players.
NEM is a good stock for with 3 to 1 leverage to POG, no hedging portfolio and great track at reducing costs.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:56 - ID#153102)
My apologies. It seems there is always at least one to justify Pilate with Judeo-Christian scripture and their doctrine of it and my skin there is thin.

(Mon May 11 1998 14:59 - ID#31868)
I still say all that glitters is not gold PWN is an animal and it will get better and
better. If it gets spanked in a major drop in the DOW...BUY IT!

John Disney__A
(Mon May 11 1998 15:05 - ID#24135)
Little Gritty Burp
I await your next "call" when you
"go out on a limb" O master of the
the cliche.
Your "call" on silver was truly
GRAND. The village idiot could not
have done better.
Keep Up The Good Work .. DOOD!!

(Mon May 11 1998 15:11 - ID#339274)
XAU/NEM perspective
FWIW,unhedged NEM took a steeper drop 12% than XAU 6% from
its recent high.Another signpost.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:14 - ID#36156)
Cluck, cluck...

KINDERGARTEN TEACHER: To get to the other side.

PLATO: For the greater good

ARISTOTLE: It is the nature of chickens to cross roads.

KARL MARX: It was a historical inevitability.

TIMOTHY LEARY: Because that's the only trip the establishment would let it take.

SADDAM HUSSEIN: This was an unprovoked act of rebellion and we were quite
justified in dropping 50 tons of nerve gas on it.


CAPTAIN JAMES T. KIRK; To boldly go where no chicken has gone before.

HIPPOCRATES; Because of an excess of phlegm in its pancreas.

ANDERSEN CONSULTING; Deregulation of the chicken's side of the road was
threatened its dominant market position.The chicken was faced with
Significant challenges to create and develop the competencies required for the newly competitive market. Andersen Consulting, in a partnering
relationship with the client, helped the chicken by rethinking its physical distribution strategy and implementation processes. Using the Poultry Integration Model ( PIM ) , Andersen helped the chicken use its skills, methodologies, knowledge, capital and experiences to align the chicken's people, processes and technology in support of its overall strategy within a Program Management framework. Andersen Consulting convened a diverse cross-spectrum of road analysts and best chickens along with Andersen consultants with deep skills in the transportation industry to engage in a two-day itinerary of meetings in order to leverage their personal knowledge capital, both tacit and explicit, and to enable them to synergize with each other in order to achieve the implicit goals in delivering and successfully architecting and implementing an enterprise-widevalue framework across the continuum of poultry cross-median processes. The meeting was held in a park-like setting, enabling and creating an impactful environment which was
strategically based, industry-focused, and built upon a consistent, clear, and unified market message and aligned with the chicken's mission, vision, and core values. This was conducive towards the creation of a total business integration solution. Andersen Consulting helped the chicken change to become more successful.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:18 - ID#339274)
If the 85 is going to cave in next support 79.5.Have some happy trading
good day .

(Mon May 11 1998 15:23 - ID#25171)
Last word on NEM
From the low of POG to the current price +8%
From the low of NEM to current price + 27.5%
Don't expect to overperform the XAU but it might be a good way to avoid GOLD future trading

(Mon May 11 1998 15:27 - ID#288369)
@Lead me to the toiled and huddled self-righteous ones,
for I shall sit with them. For they know of their father Dirt and their mother Ash, and they know of the plan for returning to them, and thus, they selfishly spend their time and words whilst they exist apart from those that gave them birth. SO, GO GOLDBUGS!

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 15:27 - ID#212323)
Uncovering the truth behind TolerantOne's words...
Saw your weekend post, and felt it was my duty to strip out the extra verbage to enable others to appreciate the crux of your sentiment.

You said, seemingly in regard to Y2K,
"I personally am a nut job and I am making provisions for a one year worst case scenario. But I am an optimist."

What remains after separating the wheat from the chaff is,
"I personally am a nut job...But I am an optimist."

I'm curious as to your self-image on the days your optimism wanes...

I drink to your health, a shot of GoldSchlager through cheesecloth...

(Mon May 11 1998 15:29 - ID#333127)
I'd like to see some prognostications from the pm guru's sometime soon. Whenever things get touchy they pull back. I'm getting confused about now as to short term direction.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:32 - ID#212197)
A Riddle about a Treasure of Gold
A young investor asked an old investor for advice how to make a lot of money. The old investor said: "My dear friend, these times are confusing. It's really hard to predict how the markets develop. But I tell you what. Go for the real thing. I'll show you a secret path. You go along and you come to a point where it biforks. At that point you'll find sitting an old dwarf. And he can tell you what path to take, the left one or the right one. One of the two ways leads to an abyss from which you will never return. At the end of the other one there is a huge treasure of pure gold waiting for you.

There is only one big problem. This dwarf is programmed in such a way that on one day he lies and on the next day he must tell the truth. He always has one lying day followed by a truth day and so on. And you will not know whether you meet him on a lying day or on a truth day.

And to make things even harder: you have only one question to ask the dwarf."

The young investor thought about it for a while. Then he asked the old investor: "o.k., so be it, show me the path.". And the old investor brought him to the secret path and wished him good luck.

The young investor went along the path and after one long day of walking he arrived at the bifurcation of the path. And there sat the dwarf.

What was the question which he asked the dwarf?

Because after he asked his question, the dwarf pointed to the right path. And the young investor knew now exactly what path to take. He went off and found the huge treasure of gold.

Where did he find the treasure: at the end of the right path or at the end of the left one?

Alberich the Dwarf

(Mon May 11 1998 15:34 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - gulp back at ya...o' answer is this, when my optimism wanes
I sit back and smile as I have three seperate locations, each stocked for a one year scenario.

Better safe, well fed and comfortable than sorry.

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 15:37 - ID#212323)
I would hope that he asked which path the dwarf would have indicated *yesterday* that led to the gold. The boy should then do the opposite--follow the left path.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:42 - ID#377211)
ALTA has now the permit to mine for gold at its Olinghouse site... That should allow ALTA to double its yearly production of gold... at less than $200 cash cost.... mmmhhh!

(Mon May 11 1998 15:43 - ID#254201)
A congratulations to Glenn who I believe is short from 6.22 basis July Silver.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:45 - ID#224149)
Lawyers better than rats
The National Institutes of Health have announced that they will no longer be using rats for medical experimentation. In their place, they will use attorneys. They have given three reasons for this decision: 1. There are now more attorneys than there are rats. 2. The medical researchers don't become as emotionally attached to the attorneys as they did to the rats. 3. No matter how hard you try, there are some things that rats won't do.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:49 - ID#212197)
@Aragorn III: Congratulations!
Aragorn III ( Alberich ) ID#212323:
I would hope that he asked which path the dwarf would have indicated *yesterday* that led to the gold. The boy should then do the
opposite--follow the left path.

You found this answer very fast!
It took me much longer to solve this riddle.
I hope you enjoyed it!

Alberich the Dwarf

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 15:51 - ID#384350)
Twilight Time?
A Reuter's story sees use of stock in mergers may be signalling the end of the Bull Run.

The author very keenly states, "..the huge deals could be just another sign of a market near its top, with companies, Using Their Own Lofty Stock Prices as Currency..."

(Mon May 11 1998 15:54 - ID#210235)
Love the joke. It's making the rounds.

LGB, I didn't just see you insulting ol' grumpy by calling him a WOMAN? On the day after Mother's Day? Maybe it's time to turn the machine off for awhile, friend.

Silver coming down to test 5.50? I'll be buying.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:59 - ID#224149)
You know your a Gold Investor when --
You just bought an 8-track
player to put in your truck.

(Mon May 11 1998 15:59 - ID#373403)
Mergers help consolidate Y2K remediation costs
What else would explain why two otherwise financially healthy companies, equals among giants in the marketplace, would propose and complete megasupergiantcollosalmergers within weeks of the chieftans discussing the idea?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 16:04 - ID#384350)
Cover yer Backside
You can add Michel Candyss to those who are now urging caution, as he said that world equity markets are overvalued.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:07 - ID#25171)
You find yourself in front of 3 doors guarded by a giant.Behind one of them is a GOLD treasure, the other 2 lead to certain death and you have no choice but to pick one up or the giant kills you.
You choose one , but as the giant sees you sorrow , he decides to give you some help and opens another door which leads to death so that only 2 doors remain.
Then he asks wether you stick to the door you had picked or if you switch to the third door.
Do you stick with your choice or do you switch? Why?

Bill Buckler
(Mon May 11 1998 16:09 - ID#256381)
Just got up to hear that India has successfully tested three nukes. This has drawn instant worldwide condemnation. Pakistan and China, in particular, are having conniptions.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:09 - ID#410198)

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 16:10 - ID#212323)
The tables turned by day's end...
Gold has moved up and the Dow has dropped from its lofty perch of this morning. A sign of the days ahead?

Following is a repost of thoughts I had friday that are important for people to think about when they find themselves wavering by the prospect of "easy money" in the overextended equities market. The "easy money" has already been made, and all that remains is a painful reality check. The following thoughts are also a reality check, and truly represents "easy money" for those who care to have it...

Set it on a table in front of you. Try to honestly imagine how difficult
it would be and how hard you would have to toil to accumulate that
amount of gold from Mother Earth by yourself...knowledge, tools, time (
food, clothing and shelter during your task ) , permission to mine the
land, etc.
*THAT* represents the value of each and every ounce of gold on the
Now, compare that amount of effort to what you *actually* had to endure
to earn the CASH to purchase that amount of gold. During that
money-making effort, how much discomfort did you feel? Did you still
have time to play softball, go to the theatre and restaurants, etc.?
My point has been made. We should all feel guilty to have the ability to
simply *buy* gold at these prices, but I submit to you, WE SHOULD ALL BE
I couldn't be paid enough to personally scrape around in the hills for
the same gold I have easily purchased... Indeed, we mock history.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:14 - ID#14431)
ECB to hold 10-20% gold; other gold comments

(Mon May 11 1998 16:14 - ID#288369)
You don't say squat to the dwarf, you pick the little somma bitch up and head down the left path...if he goes to kickin'...go the other way and then beat the hell out of him. BUT you still have your one question left, so you ask the half-dead little punk...."Do you feel lucky, dwarf?"

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 16:22 - ID#212323)
Sequin...You increase your odds by switching doors
Staying with your first choice maintains your probability of choosing correctly at one-third. By accepting the other door your chances of success increase to two-thirds.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:23 - ID#212197)
@SEQUIN: I stick with my choice...
...because I think the giant wants to trick me away from the gold.

Now you speak my fate.....

I can't wait.

alberich the Dwarf

(Mon May 11 1998 16:26 - ID#31868)
You stick to your choice, the giant would not try and confuse you
if you had picked the wrong door.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:27 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.29 The 50 day moving average is 29.40

(Mon May 11 1998 16:27 - ID#224149)
Last Gold Joke --- ?
A man came home very late, pissed out of his mind, to find his wife waiting for him at the door. "WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?", she screams, "It's FOUR IN THE MORNING!"

He says, "Aww, I just stopped at this bar, I was only going to have one drink...but this bar, it was incredible. EVERYTHING in it was gold-plated. They had a gold rail under the bar, gold ashtrays, they served the drinks in gold shotglasses, the table posts were all gold-plated, even the mirror behind the bar was gold. The cash register was gold. I was so amazed by all this gold, I just kept ordering drinks, so I could stay in the bar and look at it. Hell, even when I went to the Men's Room to take a leak, they had gold-plated was wonderful."

"I don't believe that story for one minute," his wife said. "What was this place called?"

"Hell," he replies, "I can't remember...I got too drunk, and I forgot."

"You'll have to prove it to me tomorrow when you sober up, or I'm going to divorce you!" she said.

The next day, the man looks through the Yellow Pages under "BARS", but none of the names ring a bell. He decides that he'll call all the bars listed, and ask the bartenders about the decor in their establishments. He's called about 50 bars so far, and still no luck. Finally, he calls one bar, asks his question, and the bartender says that, yes, they are the bar with all the gold-plated stuff.

"Here," the man says, handing the phone to his wife. "Ask this bartender if I'm lying!" The wife gets on the line, and begins to ask the bartender about all the things her husband had told her about on the previous night... the rail, the shotglasses, the mirrors, the table posts and the cash register.

Finally, she says, "Now, this may seem like a strange question, but my husband says you even have gold-plated you?"

The bartender puts the phone down on the bar, and she hears him yell "HEY LOUIE!! I think I know who pissed in your saxophone..."

(Mon May 11 1998 16:29 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .285 The 50 day moving average is .267

(Mon May 11 1998 16:30 - ID#341189)
shares look sick to me
A little rally on low vol with gold barely moving: is this a healthy PM share market?

(Mon May 11 1998 16:30 - ID#25171)
From a trader point of view you might be right but from a probability standpoint you are wrong.
When you first made your choice in front of 3 doors you had 1 chance in 3 to be right. Hence there was 2 out of three chances that the treasure was behind one of the other 2.
The giant opened a door which he knew wasn't hiding the treasure but the probability of the treasure being behind the third is still 2 out of three.
You should have switched.Think if there was 100 doors and the giant opened 98 , I guess you would switch as it would be quite obvious that the probability of choosing the right door at first is small ( 1/100 )

(Mon May 11 1998 16:32 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 52.19

(Mon May 11 1998 16:32 - ID#288369)
If the giant felt sorry for you on your first choice, take the other remaining door ( not the first choice ) .....

(Mon May 11 1998 16:34 - ID#36156)
Stick to the original choice. The giant wouldn't be trying to distract you had you not chosen the correct door.

(Mon May 11 1998 16:38 - ID#212197)
STUDIO.R: you are supposed to solve the riddle with Boolean logic, not with brute force!
But I found your answer very funny.

SEQUIN: See, I tried to trick the rules of probability and got killed!

Alberich the Dwarf

(Mon May 11 1998 16:38 - ID#25171)
@ HenryD and STUDIO.R
The answer is in my 16.30

(Mon May 11 1998 16:44 - ID#286230)
India nukes its Base

(Mon May 11 1998 16:45 - ID#255284)
just simple maths

Absolutely correct. The story of your quiz game whose name escapes me, was described in Peter Bernstein's Against The Gods, the Remarkable Story of Risk." Swap doors and you increase your probabilities..

Remembered from a half-forgotten song by Jimmy Buffet "My whole world lies waiting, behind door number 3." Some guy called Monty was the host?

(Mon May 11 1998 16:46 - ID#254269)
@ ALBERICH_A; I think Studio_R is the character in Poorboys 16.27 joke.
Sorry Studio_R; couldn't resist !

(Mon May 11 1998 16:47 - ID#224149)
Promise --My last Joke --Goodnight all
A guy sitting at a bar having a drink when another guy comes in and stands next to him. The first guy says "I know you, it's lgb isn't it? You used to drink in here ages ago. It's me, Dizzy."
lgb says "Of course, I remember you. The truth is I've been away for three years at Rocket school. I just passed my degree in Logic"
"That sounds very impressive. What's it all about then?"
"Well, I could give you an example if you like. For instance, do you have any Gold?"
"Yes, I've got some gold.."
"Don't say anymore! OK, using the fact that you keep gold I'll illustrate logic. Now gold is value so I'd suggest you have a broker. If you've got a broker you must live in a house, if you've got a house you must have a mortgage which means you have a steady job with a steady income, if you live in a house and not a flat you're most likely married, and if you're married you must have a healthy and regular sex life which therefore means you don't have to wank."
dizzy was stunned, "You figured all that out from gold? That's incredible! This logic stuff is brilliant! I'm going to have a go. Here, Vronsky, do you want to learn about logic?"
"Let me give you an example. Do you have any Gold?"
Dizzy, pauses for thought, "Hmmm...Wanker!"

(Mon May 11 1998 16:50 - ID#263379)
Would I be correct in thinking that when the Euro gold backing is established at whatever %, this would trigger other world CB's to consider and establish a similar or better gold backing standard in order to compete with this Euro? At least a new mindset would be born!
Could this currency competition be the start of the foundation of support for the continual and increasing POG over years.
Similar to the IRA's, with steady/consistant cash input into the stock market over years providing constant rising price and support.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:02 - ID#288369)
I don't drink anymore, or anyless, after I peed in Louie's sax.........'sides the bubbles went over real well at Gold's Bar.....kinda' Welkesque....

(Mon May 11 1998 17:05 - ID#212197)
@Avalon: Reading Poorboy's joke...
..I thought of a men's room, which I had used on my last trip to Europe, in which they had a sign saying:

"Please do not throw the rest of your cigarette into the urinate".

And under this polite request somebody wrote the expanation, reaffirming the request:

"You also wouldn't like if someone urinated into you ash-tray".

Alberich the Dwarf

(Mon May 11 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
CORRECTION XAU/Spot Ratio = .286 The XAU has been revised to 85.83 a bit after the close. Thank you Carl for spotting this.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:06 - ID#286234)
You are presented with better odds the second time, but those odds stay the same whether you switch doors or not. Your best bet is to flip a three sided gold coin the first time and a double sided silver coin the second time.

OR pull out yer AK-47 and ask the Giant which door he wants to chose. ;- )

(Mon May 11 1998 17:10 - ID#36156)
sam - Absolutely love your last solution!!!! LOL

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:12 - ID#33182)
The Giant
What if we look at it this way:

Step 1: probability is 1 door out of 3 doors.
Step 2: probability is 1 door out of 2 doors.

Therefore, you can choose either door - they both have the same chance! When deciding at step 2, it is irrelevent what you did in step 1.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:18 - ID#316193)
From the Commodity Research Bureau, Some of Today's Comments
.....last week's increased financial market turbulence in Asia
may have lent support to gold.

"Any area having currency problems tended to be a buyer of
hard dollar-denominated assets like gold recently. That seems
to be a source of strength," said Tim Porter, analyst with

(Mon May 11 1998 17:18 - ID#7568)

Suppose that the strategy of the giant was only to make this offer only when you had picked the proper door. Then your strategy of always switching would result in you always losing, lowering your odds from 1/3 to 0.

If on the other hand you are dealing with a benevolant giant then switching is definitely the right move and will increase your probability of success to 1. If the giant was benevolant then he would only offer the switch if you had made a mistake.

Given that the giant has forced you to play a game where your life hangs in the balance, it can only be concluded that he is not your friend. The answer must be to stick with your original pick as it must be correct, else the giant would have summarily dispatched you to the hereafter.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 17:21 - ID#384350)
Aurator, Let's Make a Deal
..was the name of that game show. The Emcee was Monty Hall, who is in the where are they now file.

My Finance prof asked a similar question on the final exam. I gave the right answer and then asked if this is what he does with his govt grants.
His reply, Don't you see the importance of this?

I couldn't see any practical application, maybe some Kitcoites can.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:25 - ID#288369)
The giant helped you by eliminating a deadly door.........I say he's benevolent ( per Sequin's story text ) .......Some giants are cool...I think he doesn't like the gig, split the gold with him and go have a drink....don't get in a drinking contest with him though. ;^ ) ~

(Mon May 11 1998 17:27 - ID#25171)
@ sam @ Cage Rattler
You can't consider both choices as 2 independant situations.When you are given the second choice you have to be influenced by what you know.You know that you picked a door with 1/3 proba and the giant opened one of 2 remaining doors which didn t lead to the treasure.
Consider the following problem: same story with 1 million doors: the giant after you pick one, opens 999998 doors and 2 remain closed ( the one you chose and another one ) : what do u do? if you don't switch I d like to play poker with you.

Psilver Psyched
(Mon May 11 1998 17:28 - ID#216217)
Whatever you do, just do not follow in the footsteps of the giant...

(Mon May 11 1998 17:30 - ID#288369)
ANOTHER funny one!

(Mon May 11 1998 17:31 - ID#36156)
Giant Game
To use probability as the sole element in solving the dilema ignores the fickle nature of the human variables: the giant and yourself. To my mind, this little oversight invalidates any answer as being predictable or probable or right or wrong... unless, of course, you resort to Sam's AK-47 solution. Yep, that'll do it alright. ; )

(Mon May 11 1998 17:33 - ID#220325)
Thanks for the article on the Psychology of Investing. It may not suit everyone but a lot of the informations hits home for me. James Dines also relies heavily on the psychology of investing.

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:34 - ID#33182)
Digital Cash and the Future of Money - J Orlin Grabbe

(Mon May 11 1998 17:34 - ID#43460)
The investor formerly known as 223 breaks his silence to LGB
LGB: OK, dewd, every time you blast into Kitco town you rattle on until everyone else is exhausted, telling about your investing genius. So here's the URL for you to prove you're smart and not just just a smart#ss. Show us how you do in the Yahoo investment challenge. Today is the day you can start and show us all how really wonderful are your skills.

And don't come back with any counter challenges to try to confuse issues for us otherwise shy and retireing and forgiving souls. You are the braggart here. Either sh#t or get off the pot! ;^] )

Mike, Mr. Disney, Farfel and all the folks LGB has teased take note!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 17:37 - ID#384350)
Sequin, the Switch
In your game, the premise is that your giant knows what is behind each door, and no matter which door you pick, he will show you a door with an undesirable outcome.

If the Giant didn't know what was behind any door and opened 998 of a thousand, there wouldn't be any advantage in switching doors. The chances of him opening 998 doors without finding the treasure is slim though.

It kind of reminds me of when I was walking through Paris last month and some conmen were playing a shell game with 3 black disks, 2-both sides black, 1-black and white. I usually watch these games for a laugh and make sure no one tries to pickpocket me, but I never play.

One time a loser put his money down and of course lost, one chip was exposed, then the hustler asked around if anyone else wanted to try. 1 disk was exposed as a loser and 2 remained. I thought gee that's a 50-50 chance, but still refused. Now, this guy is more or less a magician. Who is to say he didn't do the old switcheroo and that there was no winning disk at all exposed? Thus chance of winning, Zero.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:38 - ID#433172)
Allen USA
Your numbers on the Canadian wheat leave me wondering. $225 C translates roughly into $ 157 US and into about .07 per pound, $7.00 a hundred. Metric ton =.90718 short tons. Thats a pretty good price. Is it bagged? Moisture content? Organic? Mice will get to you immediatly unless you have fool proof protection. Its a good idea from my experience to isolate ( biologically ) the wheat into units easily transported. ( plastic pails ) .
I just recently got a utility pole after 18 years without. I found a small generator to be most effecient. 1000 to 2000 watts. A desiel about 2500 watts would do, 4hp or so. Nice to have two. Some 8d batteries, inverters, small ones 500 watt and have several. Solart is great, but expensive and it depreciates, good for a back up to give you radio reception if all else fails. I had a bunch of kids for those 18 years and although we like the utility pole we still had computers and T.V. et all without it.
I like motion sensors and ar 15s too. There are a lot of not too bright jerks around. Around here to be vulnerable is to be ripped off.

Alberich_A I found your post regarding pre-christian values in Europe helpful to an evaluation I'm struggling with. The Norse "boat people" had similar ideas.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:38 - ID#288369)
@to the poster formerly known as F*...........
Is your moniker somehow connected to pasta?

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:39 - ID#33182)
Is the giant good or evil - or neutral ?

(Mon May 11 1998 17:39 - ID#290118)
And the chicken was run down by a black limo with diplomatic plates.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:40 - ID#254269)
european rest rooms ; Alberich, your post reminded me of a true story. When I was in my
early 20's, I took a trip through Europe by train, etc. Was in Vienna and had to find a rest room. Well, there was one in the middle of the city square, so I go in there and first surprise is that I get directed to a stall ( not used to that ) by a middle aged woman ( definitely not used to that ) . Turns out that it is one of those unisex deals.

Anyway, any port in a storm, right.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:41 - ID#288369)
@cage rattler........
If he's green, he's cool and fun to be around.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:42 - ID#286234)
More doors
What if there were only two doors at first, you pick one, and the Giant then asks "You want a second chance?" Same thing.

The Giant doesn't know you're out of ammo, ask the him which door he would have opened yesterday.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:47 - ID#288369)
Any saxophone in a storm. ;^ ) ~

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:49 - ID#33182)
@robnoel_A: Letters about emigration from South Africa

(Mon May 11 1998 17:51 - ID#25171)
@Gianni Dioro
The trick if you look at these small time con artists is : when the player is right, the dealer offers to double the bet.Most people betting don't know that those who won previously are in the scam .When they look for more money the con switches ( ! ) the cards under his unsuspeting nose.If the player refuses, he doesn't get paid either and might be phisically assaulted if needed.As most of these game are dealt in shady areas the innocent player has no upside.

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:51 - ID#33182)
Is the giant a golden gnome from Zurich ?

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 17:52 - ID#33182)

France became the first nation of the 11 EU members participating in the making of the common currency called the "euro" to acutally produce the money today by minting the first coin today. The first coin will be a limited series with mass distribution due later. The official launch of Europe's single currency, which many believe will rival the U.S. dollar as the global currency standard, is not scheduled to begin until Jan. 1, 1999.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:52 - ID#31868)
cage rattler the USG is already one of the least trusted entities in the history of
mankind. They have proven themselves to violate any and every rule. They will suffer, the government and the people employed by the government. I have said before that there will be a day in the not too distant future wherein people that work in the government will be spit upon or worse.

The USG has already tried to pull the wool over people's eyes regarding encryption. Due to the far more than sullied reputation of the dirtbags in the District of Columbia encryption outside of the US is progressing and is in private hands.

Electronic cash will be meaningless unless it represents gold and silver, platinum and palladium. After a time, other "things" may be accepted for transactions, but in the begining, gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

The USG will be vastly different in three short years IMVHO. The turn against the dirtbags in the District of Columbia is just now picking up speed and it will steam roll the whatever-crats that try and stop it.

Times are a changin and when it hits the "regular folks" smack in the face, the turn will be vicious.

(Mon May 11 1998 17:52 - ID#286234)
see y'all later
I have to go back to work in my garage, only trouble is, it has two doors, three if you count the roll-up. :-D

(Mon May 11 1998 17:57 - ID#288295)
Mtn Bear
Thanks for the T/A on the XAU - apparently we're on the same wavelength....I've found that ( at least with mining stocks ) my personality isn't the best for trading, and tend to be a buy-hold kind of guy - but I bookmarked your site for future reference ( it's a good one ) , 'cause one day I WILL sell these puppies... ( ;^ ) ) Do you subscribe to the Elliott Wave section of the site? If so, what do they say is the XAU wave count?

(Mon May 11 1998 17:58 - ID#253228)
S&P500 projection updated through today

Similar work on Hometakes shows serious drop into September. Sounds like I'm a broken record, but that is what my model has been more or less showing for months.

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 18:04 - ID#212323)
Take it from someone who knows what gold is worth!
It can't be explained much clearer than this ( but you have to ignore any *agenda* on the part of the giant, as that was not sequin's angle with the question )

Looking from a different perspective, essentially the giant is asking you to separate the three doors into two groups--a single door ( which represents your "choice" ) as one group, and the remaining two doors as the other group.
What are the odds that the gold is in the first group? one-third

What are the odds that the gold is behind a door in the second group? TWO-thirds

Essentially the giant gives you the chance to accept the second group and even offers as part of the bargain to reveal a door that is a KNOWN loser, and the entire two-thirds odds for success become represented by a single door. Of course, under the one-third chance that the gold was behind the group-one door, the giant could open either one of the two group-two doors. Don't be confused by the giant's action, your outcome is not certain, but your odds of success double by accepting the opportunity to select the other group/remaining door.

Sorry I didn't give a clear reason with my earlier post--I simply stated the odds.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:15 - ID#238295)
Selby: Wonder if Dow 10,000 will prove to be the same kind of mirage that Dow 3000 was in 1987. When too many are virtually certain that a particular number will be reached contrarian thinking suggests it might be another mirage.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:23 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - a mind is a terrible thing to waste, trust me,
I have first hand knowledge of this...gulp...

(Mon May 11 1998 18:25 - ID#301318)
The odd nugget:
You have 4 gold nuggets and a scale.
3 of those nuggets are of equal weight.
You can only use the scale twice.
How can you determine which nugget is not of equal weight?

(Mon May 11 1998 18:32 - ID#153102)
@Giant Riddles
I hold with those who say the Giant can have no motive to open a door except to deceive you away from your first, correct choice.

Here is a Giant Riddle: The Giant announces you must surrender to all his warrants whether they be true warrants or false warrants and trust your fate to the Giant while in his custody.

The Giant sends a drawf to you with a Mass Arrest Warrant. You know this is a false warrant because there is no law for mass warrants as they can be no law for mass conviction or mass guilt. But, a Giant that will demand surrender to a false arrest warrant may also demand surrender to a false death warrant or a false warrant for imprisonment.

Should you go quietly or kill the Dwarf ?

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 18:33 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1...can't waste what I don't have control of...
Flash...would that be a balance type of scale or not?

(Mon May 11 1998 18:33 - ID#410114)
50 million oz
DA did someone buy 50,000,000 oz of silver today?

(Mon May 11 1998 18:35 - ID#316193)
J.P. Morgan is Starting a New Rumor -- The EURO Has Too Much Gold Reserves!!

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 18:35 - ID#212323)
Mozel...I'd kill the dwarf, and with that I'm three for three on the day!

(Mon May 11 1998 18:37 - ID#301318)
Odd nugget:

By the way, will your solution work every time?

( Aragorn III: Yes, the old fashion kind. )

Cage Rattler
(Mon May 11 1998 18:37 - ID#33182)
BREAKING NEWS: USA Labor Secretary to be investigated

(Mon May 11 1998 18:39 - ID#31868)
I would drug the dwarf, surgically open him up, stuff him with explosives and
send him back to the giant, once there I would press the FU button and no longer worry about either.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:42 - ID#153102)
@Aragorn III
The only probability that matters in the Giant and three door riddle is the probability that the Giant is benign.

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 18:46 - ID#212323)
Flash...the answer
Divide the four nuggets into two groups of two.
Select one group, and place a nugget on each pan of the scale.

If it balances:
Keep one nugget on the scale and choose a nugget from the other group to place on the scale. It it also balances, the unsampled nugget is the odd one. If it doesn't balance, the recently placed nugget in the pan is the odd one.

If the first attempt does NOT balance:
You know that the odd one is already on the scale ( but not which side ) , so remove one nugget and replace it with either of the two nuggets from the other group ( either one because they will be identical ) . If it balances, the nugget you recently removed is the odd one. If it doesn't balance the nugget you left on the pan is the odd one.

And with that I'm four for four!

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 18:48 - ID#212323)
mozel...yep, that's why I had the caveat that there was no agenda on the part of the giant
Hope your week is off to a good start.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:49 - ID#288295)
Broken record or not - I'm paying attention to your chart - please keep posting....FWIW, I sure hope you're chart is accurate on the S&P - my 98 SPX 70 LEAP puts ( bought long ago ) are finally gonna make me a ton of $ if it's true.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:50 - ID#34194)
Korea's woe continues
S.Korea Stocks: Dn 3.5% to year-low close on Moody's downgrade

Mon May 11 02:59:21 1998

By Sue Chang, Bridge News

Seoul--May 11--A decision by Moody's Investors Services to lower

ratings of 19 South Korean banks shaved 3.5% off the benchmark index today

and drove the Korea Stock Price Index to a year-low close, brokers said.

The KOSPI slid 13.18 points to close at 361.58. Trading volume reached 39

million shares.

* * *

"Amid a lack of incentives, Moody's downgrade of domestic banks' credit

ratings pushed the market one step closer to the edge," said Kim Myung-

Kwan, a broker at Daewoo Securities.

Moody's lowered the long-term debt ratings of state-run banks such as

Korea Development Bank, the Industrial Bank of Korea, Export-Import Bank of

Korea as well as 16 other major banks today. ( Story .11049 )

Aside from the downgrade, the mood in the market remained frigid amidst

persistent worries over regional economic problems.

"There were no hints of the market even attempting a rebound during the

day and in some sectors, stop-loss sales were detected," said a broker at

LG Securities.

President Kim Dae-Jung's pledge on Sunday to ferret out weak companies

and banks within 2 months to speed up reforms did not help the market as

that is likely to bring on more uncertainties, brokers said.

While foreign investors are estimated to have recorded about 3 billion

won in net buying on bargain-hunting today, foreign buying interest is not

likely to strongly recover soon.

"Until the dollar/won rate climbs to 1,450 won, we are not going to see

foreigners coming back in force," said Kim.

Losers swamped winners by 722 to 104 shares. Most sectors ended lower,

led by electronics, insurance and pharmaceuticals titles.

On Tuesday, the KOSPI is likely to continue its downward spiral with

some brokers hoping for a technical rebound at about 350 points.

"We are now almost back to the level that we were at in December when

the country was facing moratorium and all we can do is to pray for some

relief soon," said the broker at LG.


The June KOSPI 200 futures contract closed at 42.00, down 1.20 points

versus Saturday. Volume was 46,497 contracts. End

Bridge News, Tel: ( 822 ) 775-6462

Send comments to Internet address

All financial news is Copyright  1997 Bridge Information Systems, Inc.

All rights reserved. Used with permission.

(Mon May 11 1998 18:55 - ID#31868)
Check your mail...

(Mon May 11 1998 18:56 - ID#301318)
...the answer
No tell me why I had to learn how to solve this one in a Philosophy class?
Gotta go see ya!

(Mon May 11 1998 18:58 - ID#153102)
@Aragorn III
Hope yours is as well.

Wouldn't you get the nugget answer faster by going first two and two and then frogging one from each pan ?

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 19:02 - ID#212323)
Mozel...nope, and I'm confident you'll discover the reason.
With only two weighings, and not knowing if the odd one is heavier or lighter than the others...

(Mon May 11 1998 19:02 - ID#257136)
Dave in CO: It's been quite a while since we've corresponded. Please email me, as I am not sure
I still have your email address.
We've had a tragic change in the ownership of the residential air park, but otherwise everything here is proceeding apace. Still making preps for the y2k bit.
'Til later.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:17 - ID#238295)
Golden palamino maintained his stride today despite a hail of silver bullets. Oh no silver!

(Mon May 11 1998 19:17 - ID#288369)
@Monty Hall............Is it behind Door #1, Door #2 or Door #3?
Any knowledgeable game-show analyst would know to choose Door #2. Screw logic.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:18 - ID#222231)
Flash-4 gold nuggets
X = wgt of 3 nuggets
Y = wgt of lessor nugget

Divide into 2 groups of two. One group will always have 2 nuggets of equal wgt.. Other group will always have an x nugget and a y nugget, therefore of least wgt.

If one group of two is balanced against other group of two, the group having two nuggets of equal wgt will cause balance to go down:IE:

X+X ( down ) = X+Y ( up ) ( 1ST WEIGHING )

Take nuggets from pan going up and weigh these two one against the other.IE:

X ( Down ) = Y ( Up ) ( 2nd weighing )

(Mon May 11 1998 19:28 - ID#288369)
And any knowledgeable contestant in a gold game..........
Would know that the gold has been leased out....hell, there ain't no's just another paper scam....go to The Gold Bar and a have a little toddy....try to forget it never happened.

Aragorn III
(Mon May 11 1998 19:35 - ID#212323)
Studio.R...just be careful where you're pointing that sax when the song starts...
I know you know why, and I know that you know that I know why, so if the uninitiated is playin' that thing, let's take our beers to a table away from the stage!

(Mon May 11 1998 19:37 - ID#288369)
@Aragorn III............
He's forever blowing bubbles...........away!!!!

(Mon May 11 1998 19:44 - ID#255190)
That's with shipping included ( approx ) . Yes, bagged as seed for planting ( without chemical treatments of any kind ) . Yes, store in containers, unless you wish to plant some of it later. Right now I'm trying to size the solar system ( big! ha! ) . Also the generator, etc. I live in a rural area where people are OK. Sorry for your situation and feel that anytime things get REALLY bad you can bet its good advice to share.

I'll be doing some stumping to the local families to drum up support for some preparedness. Hopefully they will remember who it was who kept them from starving to death. As for guns I'm just starting to think deer riffle and side arm for stray dogs. I'll have chickens and what not. I can imagine there will be alot of strays let loose when people can't feed the kids.

Am not into guns to shot at people but if you have one its a deterent. My main purpose would be for food and critter control.

My outlook is 1 to 3 years of anarchy followed by a slow reorganization into a more socialist state ( more so than now, more like " you will do it this way so that we can get our prosperity back " kind of thing ) .

But then again it probably won't happen if we plan for it and then everyone can laugh at us, eh?? I'd be willing to make the sacrifice.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:48 - ID#222231)
My 1st solution only works if 4th nugget is of lessor wgt. If the 4th nugget is of greater wgt, then scale side going down has two unequal nuggets.

4th nugget greater than other three in wgt.

X+Y ( Down ) = X+X ( Up )

4th nugget lessor wgt than other three.

X+Y ( Up ) = X+X ( Down )

Now how do you decide which pair to wgh against each other, the side going down or the side going up? I'm working on it!

(Mon May 11 1998 19:48 - ID#26793)
That J.P. Morgan report is outrageous. They are proposing that the Central Banks should use derivatives to manage their reserves. Purchased through J.P. Morgan I presume.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:48 - ID#290118)
Slow day here too.
Gross sales under $100 - may as well have turned off the lights and played games with the Kitcoites. Thank God I have no employees!

(Mon May 11 1998 19:49 - ID#255190)
Behind door number one ..
maddened Y2K geek with AR-15, MREs and bad case of paranoia.

Behind door number two ..

Alan Greenspan reassuring everyone that the market is only a little overvalued.

Behind door number three ..

Svelt ( golden ) blond holding pickle jar and bottle of vodka.

Its yours now John Disney, what door will you choose???

(Mon May 11 1998 19:51 - ID#226327)
Jake Berstein weekly report

Is Inflation about to Return?
Are you Ready?

by Jake Bernstein

The booming U.S. stock market, persistently low interest rates, a
strong U.S. economy, declining petroleum prices, relative political
calm worldwide, and deteriorating gold prices have helped lull
investors into what I feel is a false sense of optimism and comfort.
But worse than mere optimism, I believe that the soaring U.S. stock
market has blinded investors to the possibility of inflation. ......

(Mon May 11 1998 19:51 - ID#288369)
and movies...........
I thought John Disney's performance in "As Good As It Gets" was STELLAR!!! He deserved the Oscar! Yes. indeedy. ( bark! )

(Mon May 11 1998 19:53 - ID#286234)
Flash never said the odd nugget was lighter.

Pesonally, I would weigh one against one. If I lucked out and the fist batch is unequal, I would whip out my Bowie knife and shave down the heavier nugget, then weigh those two against the remaining two, if.......

This way not only can you determine which is the odd nugget you can tell if is lighter or was heavier than the rest.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:54 - ID#286234)
fist = first

(Mon May 11 1998 19:54 - ID#255190)
You are sooooooooo sensitive. How could you think that JPM has ANY motives other than the altruistic concern for world wide financial and economic security?

Of COURSE derivatives make all the sense in the world. In fact they are like insurance, my friend. A perfect alternative to gold reserves.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:57 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Rumor that Brazil will devalue; investment bank will downgrade.

(Mon May 11 1998 19:58 - ID#288155)
An interesting--and sound--approach...

"...Mr. Rouzee went to Bob Marks, president of
SOM Economics, and asked him to analyze the gold
price in local currencies on a population-weighted basis.
Mr. Marks converted the dollar price of gold into local-currency
terms, and then weighted the prices according to the populations
of the countries. The group includes Britain, China, Germany,
India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Egypt and the United States.

Since the index is weighted by population, China's population contributes almost 40% to the index, India's a little more than
30%, but Germany, Japan, and the U.S. combined contribute only about 15%.

Once he saw the population weighted gold index, Mr. Rouzee drew four

Global inflation is roaring. For most people in the world, gold has been
the place to be for some time.

In terms of local currencies, gold is in a global bull market.

Periodically we have to check and revise not only financial indices but also the way we look at markets.

For most of mankind, the reign of central banks is drawing to a close.
While those brilliant Western central bankers are walking out of the golden gate by selling gold, Chinese, Indians, Indonesians, Egyptians and others are beating feet for the golden door, selling paper currencies just as fast as they can. He concludes that "somewhere in here, gold doesn't go to $440 or $410. It goes to $800."

There is a very simple little chart that brings the point home. {:- )

(Mon May 11 1998 20:02 - ID#26793)
Tell you what Allen; send me your gold and I will write up some very nice parchment paper derivatives for you, gold color if you like. Swap them with your friends, show them at parties, great fun!

(Mon May 11 1998 20:04 - ID#252127)

If there is a national crisis will the government make you surrender your derivatives?
This is an important question that all derivative hoarders must consider.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:04 - ID#256326)
Very nice post that!

(Mon May 11 1998 20:05 - ID#288155)
Donald -- Brazil's problems translate into VERY large problems
for Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan--who already has
enough problems, thank you very much {:- )

(Mon May 11 1998 20:07 - ID#256326)
It's the age of self-promotion,
so forgive, but I have a new piece on the stock market at my site and a downloadable report from last weekend which has some gold comments.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:08 - ID#26793)
I was entering some data into my system today of gold and silver prices for March of 1985. Prices were the same as today, $300 for gold and $6.00 for silver. What else can you buy with devalued U.S. dollars that is the same price it was in 1985? Gold and silver are the best deals on the planet.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:14 - ID#26793)
Currency traders concerned that Central Banks may jointly prop up the yen.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:17 - ID#228128)
Veneroso FAX update (still thinks some sneaky CB is selling)

Veneroso Associates Gold Watch May 11th, 1998
Telephone 212-829-0564 John Brimelow
Facsimile 212-829-0574
Telephone 603-430-8482 Frank Veneroso & William Murphy
Facsimile 603-430-8598

We have had a further sell off in gold to below $300 an ounce. As we have
noted in recent reports, speculators in the derivatives market were fairly
long. Price resistance at $315 set into motion a new short term negative
price trend. This rendered the speculator long position vulnerable. We have
probably seen long liquidation in the gold derivatives markets over the last
two weeks.

For us, the key issue is the source of the price resistance on the recent
rally. As we discussed last week, there were several contributing factors,
but, in our estimation the key issue is whether there has been continued
official sector selling. We believe there has been and gave our reasons in
last week's report.

This week we have had comments from three well-placed sources that suggest
there may be no such official selling. The first was a comment by Belgian
central bank governor Alfons Verplaetse.

NEW YORK, May 5 ( Reuters ) Verplaetse says Belgian gold sales are "not on the
agenda". "Europe stops us from selling any more gold, for the good and simple
reason that several central banks have large stocks. That's the case for
France, Germany, and Italy."

Verplaetse indicates that the leading EU countries are placing pressure on the
other European central banks to refrain from selling their gold in order to
avert further depreciation of the price of an asset which is very significant
for them. This would suggest that these leading EMU countries may be
preventing gold sales by the other European central banks rumored to have been
sellers---the Netherlands and Portugal.

The second comment was made by Charles von Arentschildt of Deutsche Bank. In
a conference call several months ago, von Arentschildt predicted that several
European central banks would announce gold sales. Only Belgium has done so to
date. Von Arentschildt now suggests that Belgium was the only EMU-related
seller last year and this year.

NEW YORK, May 5 ( Reuters ) - "I have certainly contended all along that once
they created the ECB, the idea that anybody would act on a unilateral basis,
whether its May 1 this year ( when EMU participants were decided ) or January 1,
1999 ( when the ECB will take control of EU monetary policy ) , would undermine
the structure, so the Verplaetse statement today is just a reaffirmation of
that notion," said Charles von Arentschildt, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell managing
director for bullion trading in New York. Asked if he thought there could be
further announcements in the next few weeks of completed gold sales by
European central banks, von Arentschildt said, "I don't think so, if somebody
had a sale to announce the proper way to have done so would have been before
May 1. But "the fact that gold is within the purview of risk management by
the ECB means there will be more gold lending from all constituent members of
EMU," he said.

Deutsche Bank is likely to have been involved in any European official sales
in 1997 and early 1998. Therefore, one must take von Arentschildt's change in
position seriously.

The third statement was made by Anglogold president Bobby Godsell.
LIMA, May 8 ( Reuters ) Anglogold president Bobby Godsell was assured by leading
European central bankers that they had no plans to sell their gold reserves in
the near future, Godsell said in a news release. "These assurances have been
given particularly by the French, German and Italian authorities, as well as
those of other European countries," the statement said.

Godsell's reference to central banks "of other European countries" besides
Germany, France and Italy implies that the Dutch and Portuguese are not
selling gold.

One might interpret these three comments bullishly. If the Germans, French
and Italians are preventing the Belgians from selling official gold, they are
likely to prevent official gold sales once the ECB becomes fully operational,
since, at that point, control of the official reserve holdings of all the
European central banks will pass to the EC B where they will have a majority
voice. Charles von Arentschildt believes that this will be the case, at least
for the first several years after the ECB is created.

We would not regard these comments so cheerfully. If, in fact, the French,
Germans, and Italians prevented EMU related gold sales so that there has been
only one such sale, the Belgian sale ( and reportedly Belgium did not sell its
gold into the market ) , total net official sales in 1997 might have been below
the average of the prior five years. If that is the case, we must ask the
question, "Why has the gold price been at $300 for almost a half year now?"

In a January conference call, Peter Munk indicated that fears of official
sales rather than the fact of such sales depressed the gold price in 1997. He
attributed the selling pressures of 1997 to speculative short sellers. Based
on the data now available, producer short sales were also important. However,
it is hard to attribute a decline in the gold price as severe as that of 1997
to short sales alone. To be sure, the crisis in South East Asia has had a
negative impact on the gold price, but short selling and the Asian crisis
should not have had so disastrous an impact on the gold market.

In any case, without some official selling recently, it is very hard to
explain the still deeply depressed gold price over the last two months. The
dealers indicate that, on a net basis, the speculator and producer short
selling has now ceased. This seems plausible, since many formerly bearish
dealers are now suggesting that there will be no more EMU-related official
sales in the future and it was the threat of these sales that motivated many
of the funds and producers to go short in 1996 and 1997. In fact, the Comex
data opens the possibility that the computer funds have actually moved to the
long side this year. Furthermore, with the large Korean sale now out of the
way, Far East Asia must now be less of a negative for the gold market.

The bullish case for gold is that it has been depressed by a volume of
official sector sales and loans that have been too large to be sustained and
that, once this flow of official metal abates, the gold price will recover.
The outlook is not very positive if somehow the gold price languishes at $300
without any large identifiable selling pressures.

We continue to believe that 1 ) there was at least one European official sale
last year that has not been announced, 2 ) there may have been several such
sales, and 3 ) such selling has persisted throughout 1998. We set forth our
reasons for this position last week. If we turn out to be correct, this
official selling will end and it will eventually be disclosed. Consequently,
the magnitude of the selling pressures on the gold market will be more fully
appreciated. Then, the positive implications of an end to those selling
pressures will be more fully recognized. Under these conditions, the
preference of "Europe" for no more official gold sales can be considered as to
be very constructive for the gold price.  End 

(Mon May 11 1998 20:21 - ID#316193)
Donald, Re. J. P. Morgan
In 1991 I had the "priviledge" of working with Morgan on a
$120Mil. deal for my employer. There were approximately $2Mil.
in "fees" collected by Morgan. When we'd sit down to discuss
details, I knew they thought of me as a country hick with a
Wyoming accent. My thoughts were, "you are nothing but robber
banker barons."

(Mon May 11 1998 20:23 - ID#256326)
M. Verplaetse's record on speaking the whole truth is flimsy at best.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:28 - ID#29048)
Euro Reserves

(Mon May 11 1998 20:34 - ID#43460)
Would you weigh nugget 1 against 2 then weigh 1 against 3? Then if 1 and 2 are equal and 1 and 3 are equal then 4 is the one by elimination? If 1 and 2 are equal and 1 and 3 are unequal then 3 is the one? But if in the initial weighing 1 and 2 were unequal then weighing 1 and 3 would produce equality if 2 was the one and inequality if 1 is the one?

(Mon May 11 1998 20:37 - ID#412286)
Battle Mountain Gold
Price action is very positive, what does anyone think.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:41 - ID#288295)
INPATHIQUE short-term update
Here's an update ( from today's close ) of the INPATHIQUE forecast for the Toronto Precious Metals Index. If they are correct ( and track record has been pretty good ) , the rocket is ready to launch, and the countdown is running...tick..tick..tick

(Mon May 11 1998 20:42 - ID#31868)
Poor Korea
getting hammered again.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:43 - ID#288155)
Donald, this is an interesting commodity chart for UK, US, Canada,
Norway and Sweden back to 1600. The author's thesis:wars inflate the currency, but history suggests that post-war deflations
bring prices back into line. Post WWII was the exception; he
feels that the end of the cold war will see this 'trend'
reassert its influence. Somewhat different approach, yes?
1600 chart

short article

(Mon May 11 1998 20:43 - ID#228128)
Par for the course wouldn't you say.

(Mon May 11 1998 20:43 - ID#222231)
If you divide into two groups with 2 nuggets in each, one group of 2 will always be of the same wgt and the other group will either be less or greater in wgt depending on a greater or lessor wgt for 4th nugget.

After dividing into the two groups, take one nugget from each group and wgh one against the other. ( 1ST WEIGHING ) Now there are two possibilities. Each nugget will be of equal wgt or unequal wgt. If they are of equal wieght then take one of the equal wgt nuggets from 1st weighing and weigh against one remaining from either group. If they are of equal wgt then you know one remaining is of different wgt. ( 2ND WEIGHING ) Or if of unequal wgt, then the one picked from 1st weighing against one remaining is nugget you are seeking.

If they are of unequal wgt., ( you know that one of the two is nugget you are seeking ) then take one nugget from group weighed and weigh against one picked from remaining in either group ( 1 remaining in each group ) . ( 2ND WEIGHING ) . If they are of equal weight you know that nugget you did not choose from 1st weighing is nugget you are seeking. If they are of unequal wgt., then you know that nugget chosen from 1st weighing to weigh against other nugget chosen from remaining is nugget you are seeking.


(Mon May 11 1998 20:49 - ID#228128)
Comment on Veneroso
Reading over the FAX made me wonder if yet another deflationary wave is having its effect on the price of gold. Veneroso is at a loss to explain why gold is still at 300. A while back he concluded that the Asian problems brought gold down 30 or 40 bucks more than expected. Is the same thing happening again, a 2nd wave in Asia, South America?

(Mon May 11 1998 20:52 - ID#288155)
Pete--old SDRer proverb:
He who plays by the Giant's Rules
Findeth the supporting beanstalk
Cutteth from undereth Him. {:- )

(Mon May 11 1998 20:54 - ID#288295)
tolerant1 @ South Korea
Looks like they're gonna get nuked, even if PRK doesn't do it. At the current 349, they are below the key support level ( ultimate target 150? ) ....Look out below!

(Mon May 11 1998 20:58 - ID#256250)
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

528,159 0 0 0 0 528,159
178,524 0 0 0 0 178,524
706,683 0 0 0 0 706,683

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 37,600,117
-18,826 0 51,466,803
-18,826 0 89,066,920

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 101,970 125 868 -743 101,227


Gold 23,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 11,000

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:00 - ID#384350)
Bill Clinton and Al Gore drive through a car wash in a convertible with the top down. Who gets wet?

(Mon May 11 1998 21:00 - ID#43460)
SDRer__A , question about your charts?
How would you factor in the use of manpower-multiplying machinery into the graphs? Now anyone in any developed country lives a lifestyle which would have taken the constant work of a few dozen slaves 150 years ago. So shouldn't the cost of maintaining the slaves be put into the equation? That would considerably smooth out the curve.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:04 - ID#384350)
Clinton Riddle
Monica Lewinsky, well anyway it sure wasn't slick Willie. Untouchable!

(Mon May 11 1998 21:07 - ID#26793)
I made the same point to someone here the other night. We have been at war since 1939, ending in 1989. The problem with "a little bit of inflation" is that only fools save. Without savings there is no capital. Without capital there is no capitalism, and by default we have Socialism; the thing we were fighting to avoid. The 50 year experience, with millions of lives lost, would be a failure. George Bush was bragging too early that "The Cold War is over, and we won." It is still to early to tell and the signs are not good. People everywhere, not just Americans, expect the government to solve all their problems. That expectation can only be changed by a disastrous failure of government itself.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:10 - ID#412286)
The seller is Merrill and other Wall St boys in cooperation with the USG in the derivitives and not the physical mkt. The Euro could announce 80% gold backing and gold would "after a quick short covering rally" still go down in NY and London. They have a financial bubble going which can not be challenged much as the Communist oligarchy was in Russia before collapse. Gold will just GO and be gold When the Fuhrer bunker on WAll St falls as truth overcomes fiction both in economics and earnings. When the collapse of financials and gold rise occurs it will be without precedent, sudden, complete, irretrievable and final/ no prisoners. ( all because of the unprecedented events that have occurred in recent times as a result of manipulation ) . The ROARIN TWENTIES gives way to the LIEING NINTIES!

(Mon May 11 1998 21:10 - ID#288369)
I know the brokers at Rauscher-Pierce here and in Dallas like it a lot.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:12 - ID#288155)
gagnrad -- Not 'my' chart , like you just viewing
Yours is an interesting question however. Then one would
move into the tangled wood of 'productivity enchancements'
and other constructs which make one's head ache. {:- ) )
The writer's thesis was primarily that a long historical trend ( post war deflation ) had not appeared after WWII, but may be circling
the landing field now.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:19 - ID#287312)
Korea in deep dodo
Korea down 3.00% to 350.75

(Mon May 11 1998 21:20 - ID#256250)
Date: Mon May 11 1998 18:32
mozel ( @Giant Riddles ) ID#153102:

Goodbye, Dwarf!
But I would not kill the Dwarf, the Dwarf would die in an unfortuate accident. Probably caused by one of his own clan, at least that is the way it looks. ( :&

(Mon May 11 1998 21:21 - ID#174103)
Change in an indicator of the DJIA
With the caveat that I'm only an amateur at technical analysis, I thought folks here would be interested in some data regarding the DJIA. As some may remember ( or not, it was a while back I last posted on this ) , I like to use a non-linear time-series analysis method to look at the behavior of the DJIA.

Looking at the DJIA over the past couple of years over time periods of 1 - 3 months, whenever there has been a dip or a rise, an indicator I follow called the H exponent has always been less than 0.5, which suggests that over that time period, trends ( either positive or negative ) tend to get reversed. However, over the past 90 trading days, H is greater than 0.5. This suggests that trends get re-enforced. This is quite unusual, especially on a downtrend, since in the past, all downtrends had H less than 0.5. In fact, it is the only time this has happened over the past 400 trading days.

This suggests that the dynamics of the time-series ( which reflects the dynamics of the buyers and sellers ) has fundementally changed. One interpretation is that fewer folks are buying the dips, perhaps less short-covering is going on. It also suggests that the current downtrend off the high may continue. I guess we'll see.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:21 - ID#288155)
IDT, ROR--gold
Whilst one feels exceedingly hesitant about questioning Mr. Veneroso,
it is very difficult to understand why he views gold through such a narrow currency window! Golds price IS NOT depressed in any number of other currencies, including major European currencies.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:21 - ID#26793)
Sanwa Bank will not meet BIS standards until March, 2000, it says.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:24 - ID#288155)
Donald--rather like being
"Dead right!" {:- ( (

John B__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:32 - ID#211105)
Silver Baron/Impathique url?
You had given the following as the URL but it dead-ends for me on a mystery page. Am I missing something? Thanks,

(Mon May 11 1998 21:32 - ID#30116)
This always seems to be the kiss of death...
At the risk of killing this current gold 'trend'... The chart doesn't look that bad...

(Mon May 11 1998 21:34 - ID#153102)
@Aragorn III @Alberich @Donald

Alberich Correction: FOLCMOTE. The name of a court among the Saxons. ( Pre-Christian, naturally. )

Donald: The Cold War was lost before it was fought. A hoard of saved potatoes is not capital. Neither is a hoard of saved printed green paper. There is literally no capital in corporations which are "capitalized" with notes, especially notes for nothing. They are bankrupt ab initio ( from the beginning ) . Their exact legal status and the exact legal status of their share certificates and bonds is not clear, but it cannot be sound.

John B__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:39 - ID#211105)
Your conclusion may be an explanation. We have lately had a number of days where the DOW starts the day well in the plus column and then retreats towards the close. Today was a picture-book example - from plus ~135 early to a plus ~37 close. One theory considers this as bearish behaviour by the NYSE floor specialists, who mark stock up in the morning and then selling in the afternoon.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:39 - ID#30116)
Then there's silver...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:40 - ID#384350)
Donald, yer 20:08, 1985 prices
The only thing I can think of would be airfare.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:41 - ID#256250)

A week or so ago, you asked me why FV seemed to ignore the massive paper gold trading going on in the comex and lbma markets.

Of course, I can only guess. And this is my guess.

Frank has been very successful for a long time in the gold market. Over time he has adapted and modified where necessary to keep his winning ways. I believe he now understand the highly complicated way the gold market has been working over the last 7 years. During that time the paper gold market has flourished and he has watched and analyzed it and developed complicated procedures to keep up with its

I suspect that we are at a inflection point and as such simplicity rules ( or will rule ) . Frank as yet ( partially from his continued success ) is mired in his own success.

As such he ignores or slightly weighs the paper gold market. He also does not seem to view the USdollar situation as critical. I view the paper gold market as grave mainly because it is based on the flawed and dangerously overvalued usdollar. He doesn't seem to view the usdollar as a negative factor.

Please note :
1. I am not nor do I pretend to be a FV devote.
2. I am not nor do I pretend to be a expert on FV.
3. I could be wrong.
4. This is my best guess with limited information.
5. Also I could be right.

BUY gold and silver and any commodity you want store it and wait patiently. ( P.S. gold will preferred when the s*it hits the fan ) .

SDRer, loved your ( An interesting--and sound--approach... ) post.


(Mon May 11 1998 21:44 - ID#266105)
@y'know it don't come easy

Snippets of transcripts from local Johannesburg business radio talk show with mine officials, local and overseas contacts concerning SA gold mining in particular, gold in general. Audio available for listening along with reading. Click on Business Today icon in left margin then scroll through archives of radio shows for mine, person or issue interested in.


Feb. 20, 1998 Click on highlighted Harmony Gold

Harmony Gold Mine's Ferdi Dippenaar says this quarter's profit surge is no flash in the pan with another R33m to R35m budgeted for the June quarter;

AH : Ferdie, R33 million in this quarter, what about the coming quarter - can you keep this kind of level of profitability?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR : Yes, we intend of keeping the performance. It was a good quarter in terms of what the make-up was. Due to the restructuring we had some kilo's from surface operations, plant clean up etc. But with the underground operations we have completed the restructuring. So what we will find, is although we repeat the performance and emulate the R33 million to R35 million for the next quarter, it will mainly come from underground.

AH : That is a plan coming together for Ferdie Dippenaar of Harmony Gold Mine.


April 8, 1998 interview with Swanepoel, commercial director of Harmony.

AH: But size wise? It's going to add roughly 7 500 kg of gold a year to your production. What does that
increase the production to?

BERNARD SWANEPOEL: That will really take us very close to the magical one million ounces which really in kg's would be 32 000 kg or 32 tonnes of gold a year 

AH: Where does that put you in the ranking of South African gold mines?

BERNARD SWANEPOEL: I think that would probably make us the biggest alternative to the really big
companies, so other than Anglogold, Goldfields and JCI, we certainly will be next in line.


Nick Goodwin April 6, 1998

AH: You need to explain that. Different audience.

NICK GOODWIN: Right. I think a few months ago, we spoke first of all about Ergo, because there was a
dividend in. Then after that we spoke about Elands which has had a major move. Then we spoke some
marginals which was the Durban Deep, Harmony and so on. Then some speculative stocks as well. I
would say at this point time, if we again look at it Anglogold, should be about a third of your holdings. The second third should be divided up between Avgold, Durban Deep and Harmony and then I think a final third should go into some of the more marginal stocks and I like Crown. Crown is actually a dump treatment operation, and some gold analysts might wonder why I like this one. But this share has dropped
substantially. It's very marginal - a move in the gold price of $30 to $40 could mean a lot to this company.
And then in terms of outsiders, there are other shares as well, for instance Gencor, which is a holding
company of Impala and the Goldfields Mines is very under priced. JCI is under priced, Randgold is under
priced, and if you want some real speculative outsiders, you go for the options, that's Randfontein Options,
Harmony Options and Free State Development Options.

AH: Interesting to hear you talk about Randfontein, Harmony,
Durban Deep and Avgold; those are all what wed call
marginal stocks, in other words, when the gold price moves,
theyre really going to run.

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, absolutely. If you go back to 1992, at
that stage I recommended some portfolios when I was still at
the stock exchange and, in fact, the medium risk portfolio,
which is the same type that Im speaking about now, the final
performance was 600% over a period of about 15 months.
So, thats why Ive included those shares in those ratios. In
fact, at that stage the low risk portfolio, only rose 220% 

Market Update 16/03/98

AH: Its the 16th, as close as you can get to the middle of the
month and that means time for our update on the gold share
market, welcome to Fedsure Asset Managements Nic
Goodwin. Nic, its been pretty quiet in gold shares since we
last spoke?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, Ive actually been hiding away! As Ive
spoken in the past about the sweaty times, there are sweaty
times now because were now waiting for something to
happen with the gold price. Often people say well, when is it
going to happen; whats going to push it up? Unfortunately, I
cant predict whats going to move the gold price. Normally in
the past, something sparks it off; some exogenous factor.
The problem is that if youre not in gold shares at that stage -
even though its frustrating to have waited maybe for two
months at the stage for something to happen - if youre not in
gold shares, that first move tends to be 30-40%. If you're not
in, you'll miss most of the move. If the final move is going to
be 100% - by not being in early, youll miss half of it. When it
runs so fast, people tend to be reluctant to get into shares, so,
unfortunately, you have to buy in low areas and have patience.

AH: Thats the whole point. Weve seen the gold index almost
on a daily basis lose 3, 4 or 5 points, as it did today?

NICK GOODWIN: Ja, its really just hovering around. In one
of the shows we spoke about it almost being the same as
sailing a boat. We had a bit of wind earlier on in the year; now
were in the doldrums and the boat is really just hovering
around waiting for the next wind to come.

AH: How long might we be in doldrums for?

NICK GOODWIN: Normally in the past, the longest period
that you had to wait was four to five months. Weve had about
two and a half months so far, so Id say something would
occur within the next two months.

AH: What might spark it off, Nick? We thought it could have
been in the Gulf or the Middle East, but it seems to have
fizzled out, the possible war there 

NICK GOODWIN: Ja. Some sort of comments from the
Central Banks related to the amount of gold theyre going to
keep in the EMU; ( European Monetary Union ) thats only
expected in round about May. But Id imagine that perhaps
some statements would be made before then.

AH: Also some people taking positions on what those
statements might be?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes. Certainly the physical demand for
gold is very high  its at record highs. Thats supporting the
gold price and whats encouraging, is the fact that the gold
price really hasnt dropped; its sitting in the $290 to $295 area
and it just holds all the time. You can see that they sometimes
try to sell it down but it just recovers again. Shares,
unfortunately, need to be fueled and a quiet gold price does
not do that. What actually happens is that it tends to decay
slowly, a few points a day. But I can certainly say ( the All Gold
Index ) below 700 again, which could occur, would again be an
exceptional buy area.

AH: Most of the people whove been following your advice and
have done very well out of it. But if you havent bought any
gold shares yet, what would you be buying right now?

NICK GOODWIN: Id be buying a 1/3 into Elands which is
under priced relative to the new Anglogold merged operation;
put a 1/3 into Randfontein and Harmony and a 1/3 into
Durban Deep and Avgold; then on the outside, you have
shares like Crown, Kalgold, which could be interesting
movers when the moves have come.

AH: Interesting to hear you talk about Randfontein, Harmony,
Durban Deep and Avgold; those are all what wed call
marginal stocks, in other words, when the gold price moves,
theyre really going to run.

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, absolutely. If you go back to 1992, at
that stage I recommended some portfolios when I was still at
the stock exchange and, in fact, the medium risk portfolio,
which is the same type that Im speaking about now, the final
performance was 600% over a period of about 15 months.
So, thats why Ive included those shares in those ratios. In
fact, at that stage the low risk portfolio, only rose 220% 

AH: What is palladium?

NICK GOODWIN: In the platinum group of metals you have
quite a few metals: Platinum, palladium, rhodium and iridium.
But platinum and palladium provide the biggest revenue to the
mines. The other metals dont provide such a high revenue
base but the Russians are the major producers of palladium -
more than platinum - and there seems to be a shortage of
Russian sales and this is whats pushing up the price. Were
never quite sure what stock levels they have.

AH: What is palladium used for?

NICK GOODWIN: Its used with platinum in the auto catalytic
converters but you use more platinum. As the price it goes
up, it could start changing the ratio of the platinum/palladium
that you use in the platinum converter. It does not work as
well as platinum does.

(Mon May 11 1998 21:52 - ID#288155)
A. Goose, re:FV--Excellent analysis--FV is NOT walking the circle,
just crossing the radius!
There is a lot of that going on {:- ) ) Thanks.

Folks that have folks that need to be convinced...
This well-conceived article on money/fractional reserve/ and Y2K
banking offers no new information to this forum; however, if
there are folks you would like to alert to REALITY, this
straightforward, no nonsense piece might well do it.
( There are several to whom I intend to send it! {:- ) )

John B__A
(Mon May 11 1998 21:53 - ID#211105)
Korea approaching 97-98 Lows
Reuters, Monday, May 11, 1998 at 21:26

SEOUL, May 12 ( Reuters ) - Seoul stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, weighed down by a Moody's ratings cut on banks and corporate closure fears, brokers said.

The Korea Stock Exchange composite stock price index started down 2.24 percent, or 8.10 points, to 353.48. Within minutes, the index had fallen more than three percent to 349.63. "Retail investors are in a state of panic on fears of a renewed crisis," said Koh Kyung-bae, a broker at Hyundai Securities.

"They are spooked by the fact that the Moody's ratings cut on banks would translate into hardship in the country's foreign currency borrowings," he said.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:00 - ID#43460)
SDRer__A ideas about postwar deflation
In history there have been some wars which were actually series of shorter ones. The Persion wars of conquest, the Punic Wars, the Medieval wars of Islamic expansion, the Crusades, the Thirty Years War, the Napoleonic wars andthe wars for Irish freedom, all come to mind. IMHO

It is my conjecture that WWI will one day be known as the Last Medieval War of Prussian Expansion. As such it ends a series of Franco-Prussion wars and the last gasps of the Holy Roman Empire. IMHO

The extended war from WWII through the end of the Cold War will possibly be known as something like The First War of Socialist Expansion or The first War of Socialist Hegamony. If so, the beginning of the second war in the series began with the Gulf War and will continue through the Bosnian occupation and into the future. I believe themes of socialist unity and suppression of competing culture and religion ( all together Christianity, Judeism, Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam ) will be common denominators in these wars. IMHO

Further, I believe that the socialists will drop the facade of Left versus Right except as a gimmick to keep the peons confused and will make an attempt to play off the religions one against the other. IMHO

So I wonder if we'll EVER see the postwar deflation! IMHO ;^ )

(Mon May 11 1998 22:03 - ID#210235)
Re: "I made the same point here to someone the other night" That was to me, and over the EMail. You might want to post that, it was a good 'un. Check your Out box on April 28, "K-Wave".

(Mon May 11 1998 22:07 - ID#288295)
Sorry - I've been posting this for several weeks and keep forgetting that not everyone has seen the method ( home page is listed above ) . The forecast is based on institutional computer-trading 'fingerprints' to project price and time into the future. The Toronto precious metals index is only one of their examples. The longer-term forecast is at

(Mon May 11 1998 22:08 - ID#45173)
@Donald re comment to SDRer on demise of the welfare state
The notion that government is going to take care of you is a historical artifact of once-successful capitalist nations that ran into difficulties that demanded socialistic reforms in order to maintain their authority over the populations they governed. This trend started with Great Britton after the depression of the 1890s, the US after the Great Depression of the 1930s, and finally Japan in the 1950s. I'd argue that governments that are faced with failures of their capitalist economies are forced to enact socialist policies that protect their majority constituencies. When the equity markets fail this time, the so-called middle class majority constituency that has been hammered with zero or negative wage growth by policies that have favored a corporate elite for the past 20 years will by force of votes cause the US governement to redistribute wealth by increasing the money supply, tightening debt financing for industry, and increasing corporate taxation, resulting in an apparent increase in the relative standard of living for the "middle class" and, of course, massive inflation. Aside from other factors, this is the main reason why I buy-and-hold gold.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:09 - ID#210235)
Come on, now. Throw another clue to the clueless. Your 17:34
I've been away most of the past week and sorely need a Kitco news update!

(Mon May 11 1998 22:13 - ID#43460)
EJ re inflaton
Excellent point! Yo' be ate up wit' eruditness, bro'. :^ )

(Mon May 11 1998 22:17 - ID#256326)
A. Goose
FV is a tireless scrounger of gold information. So much so that he

has even contacted me on occasion, and that's pretty low on the gold chain. He is a supply/demand guy basically, by training, and is looking for where is it going to and coming from. It was his insight after a Vronsky piece on the FED's NY desk's gold operations ( ~ 18 mos ago ) which led to blowing the official gold sales denials to smithereeens ( great 50's term! ) and untangling the volume of business BS which had been going on a long time. BUT......he also has to pay the office bills and feed his family, so how does one market the info? The conference calls are a marketing game to cover overhead and titillate the gold faithful, some of whom hopefully will have institutional dollars to spend. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with this. You don't get NIH grants to study the gold market, as I will be the first to attest. Think it's hard to invest in gold in a bear market? Try selling info on it!

(Mon May 11 1998 22:18 - ID#222231)
SDRer_A, your 21:52
Thank you for a great post.

John B__A
(Mon May 11 1998 22:19 - ID#211105)
Silver Baron
Thanks for the home page for Impathique. I'll try to figure it out from there.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:19 - ID#411149)
Old Gold- thanks for your Kent Davis Review but I hate to tell
Who sold all the DAMN worthless T bond paper today and WHO bought
it!! I had rather be a little early in this market that too late.
Nite, nite.

Saw and shot a roll of film on that WHITE skunk tonite. Absolutely

Tally Ho

(Mon May 11 1998 22:23 - ID#153102)
Introducing the Hybrid product of Cold War mind control: The Frostrich.

Like the frog, the frostrich will stay in the pan while the heat rises until he is boiled tender. But like the ostrich, the frostrich thinks that if he can't see it then it doesn't exist and it won't hurt him.

Here on Frostrich Farm, we have no capital. but we have a capitalist economy.

Here on Frostrich Farm, we don't own anything, but we pay taxes on what we own.

Here on Frostrich Farm, we have a bankrupt government ruling by necessity of emergency, but it is Constitutional.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:27 - ID#284255)
SDR - Y2K comments
And because I have to paint ( :- )

Caverns, grottoes and caves
Altars on mountains and hills
Vestal virgins, seers or oracles
Offer small solace for our human ills

Priest, Friar and Prelate
Dark dungeon or walled cell
Gave little peace, though armed
With the inquisitors hell

Bell, Crystal or Tripod
Idols in stone, brass or wood
Myriads of such graven images
Have granted little of good

Portentous voices prophesying doom
Proclaiming vengeance, sacrifice and war
Drained untold millions of the gift of life
But never solace entered thru that door

The hot scents of burnt offerings
The futile flood of tears
No magic from such sacrifice
Has comforted thru the long sad years

Oh long and bitter reign
The scourge of sword and spear
Vast weapons of this century
All add to hate; all cause of bitter fear

No none of these
Not one in smallest part
Through cruel fated centuries has healed
Or soothed one aching heart

(Mon May 11 1998 22:28 - ID#288157)
Fed should consider Financial Assets input into inflation! my oh my
Economist--May 9th - 15th
Hubble, bubble, inflation trouble?
Three weeks ago The Economist suggested that a bubble economy was developing in America: we urged the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. This has prompted much debate about whether Wall Street is really overalued, and whethr Americas economy is as healthy as many commentators believe. GHowever, the more intellectually challenging side of our arguement has received little attention:

should a central bank such as the Fed set monetary policy with an eye ONLY to consumer prices, or should it, as we contended, worry ABOUT THE PRICES OF FINANCIAL ASSETS AS WELL?

Sniff....sniff...that IS paper burning!

Mozel@The.Farm and your IPO is when?

(Mon May 11 1998 22:35 - ID#153102)
IPO date for Frostrich is classified information.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:39 - ID#284255)
Tsunami of red ink

Sympathy for S Korea?

(Mon May 11 1998 22:39 - ID#288369)
17:34 huh?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon May 11 1998 22:40 - ID#347267)
I find it rather difficult to accept that the chart you presented depicts a history of the projected values with the actuals so close. No disrespect intended, just want to understand more about the process; what about other stocks/indexes?? Do you believe ( as I ) that the Dow action today was indicative of "final blow-off" activity? TIA
Mtn Bear

(Mon May 11 1998 22:42 - ID#45173)
@gagnrad I was much impressed by your contribution on
postwar deflation. Until the latter half of this century, history has been long periods of deflation punctuated by short periods of inflation. The period of these swings used to be sub-generational. Then they became generational ( once per 60 years or so ) . Perhaps the period of the swing is now much more broad, covering several generations, and the period of inflation we have witnessed for the past 50 years will be followed by a proportionately long interval of deflation, perhaps lasting several generations.

What is troubling is that the impact of an accelerating rate of technological innovation on the economy as a whole has thrown off the usual measures of deflation. Technology is highly deflationary and the technology sector of the economy by itself is off-scale, radically deflationary.

For example, I have two cars: a 1963 Mercury Comet and a 1997 BMW M3. One cost $1,300 in 1963 dollars and the other $45,000 in 1998 dollars. For the sake of argument, the 1963 car could be said to cost $20,000 in 1998 dollars. This is of course not a fair comparison because one's an everyman's car ( a 1963 Ford Taurus, if you will ) and the other is a rocket sled, even by 1998 standards. It'll do 0-100-0 in 15 seconds and nothing will beat it G-wise on a curve. A jogging fat man can beat my Comet on both tests. Point is, you can buy my 1963 Comet for $1,300 now, $130 in 1963 dollars, but the M3 might cost you $10,000,000 in 1963, if indeed it were even possible to create such a machine at that time.

I have this hunch that an accelerating rate of technological change has has such a profound aggregate deflationary effect that inflationary effects from all other sources have been negated. We have been experiencing intense post-war deflation, but we have been looking in the wrong place for it.

Your thoughts?


(Mon May 11 1998 22:45 - ID#210114)
This is the only financial chat line I am on. I did not make those predictions you have mentioned.

Sorry to disappoint.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:46 - ID#288157)
--some days ago, you posted a common law
course, which I neglected to scoop up; now, I cant find the post.
Would you be so kind as to repost that information? Thank you.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:51 - ID#153102)
When your unit of account is debt, there must be constant inflation. There has been constant inflation since the American unit of account was made debt by FDR. Even during recessions there has been constant inflation. All of the "economists" know this. It was the point of the Krugman article about a "liquidity sink" posted by Sorex as well.

You do not have deflation when the unit of account is debt. You have the end of the world as we know it.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:55 - ID#284255)
John B - massaging the indexes
In Oct97 we had similiar action where the futures where ramped prior to opening - later during the day the market sold off.
There were 4 days of this where they pushed the futures - globex - hard.
At the end of the four days the Dow stood at the same level as when it had started. - Distribution to the unwary.

This action was immediately prior to the major sell-off.

Perchance a repeat performance coming?

(Mon May 11 1998 22:56 - ID#393224)
EJ--'63 Mercury Comet vs. '97 BMW
G'day EJ.
On Jan. 1st, 2000 try starting both cars.
You may then find which one is worth more.
Cheers, Nick.

(Mon May 11 1998 22:57 - ID#288157)
gagnrad (A ideas about postwar deflation)
That is a fascinating concept...want to chew on that awhile.
Truly interesting breakdown. Thanks for the new toy! {:- ) )

(Mon May 11 1998 23:00 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ USofA Constitution - Gold - Federal Reserve - France - Revolution - Indian Land
1776: The Declaration of Independence signed July 4 1776 at Philadelphia follows military action in the American Revolution. ( men of property )

1781: The American Revolution ends October 19 with the surrender of Gen. Cornwallis.

1781: Congress charters the Bank of North America December 31 at Philadelphia. The first incorporated bank of the new American republic, it has been founded by superintendent of finance Robert Morris, 48 who signed the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Morris has used his own personal credit to save the government from bankruptcy.

1785: Congress establishes the dollar as the official currency of the new United States, employing a decimal system devised by Thomas Jefferson, who is named minister to France to succeed Benjamin Franklin.

1787: A Constitutional Convention that has been meeting at Philadelphia draws up a Constitution for the new United States of America. George Washington has chaired the convention. ( men of property )

1788: The United States Constitution becomes operative June 21 as New Hampshire ratifies the Constitution 57 to 47, the ninth state to ratify.

1788: The Parlement at Paris presents Louis XVI with a list of grievances as the country suffers its worst economic chaos of the century.

1788: Most Frenchmen remain convinced that the king, and the aristocracy are profiting at the people's expense. Farmers resist bringing their grain to market lest it be commandeered, and people starve.

1789: The French Revolution that begins with the tennis court oath June 20 follows widespread rioting triggered by rumors that the nobility and the clergy ( the first and second estates ) have plotted to collect all the nation's grain and ship it abroad.

France's nobility begins to emigrate as peasants rise against their feudal lords.

1789: The guillotine proposed to the National Assembly, is a beheading machine. Only 10 percent of guillotine victims will be of the nobility, most of the 400,000 people put to death in the revolution will be shot, burned, or drowned, and the guillotine will often require several chops to do the job.

1789: George Washington takes office April 30 at New York's Federal Hall to begin the first of two terms, taking care not to set any unfortunate precedents. ( RESISTS EFFORTS TO MAKE HIM KING - I WONDER WHY? ha ha ha )

1789: The Declaration of the Rights of man adopted by the French assembly declares that man has "natural and imprescribable rights. These rights are liberty, property, personal security, and resistance to oppression..." " No one may be accused, imprisoned, or held under arrest except in such cases and in such a way as is prescribed by law..." " Every man is presumed innocent until he is proved guilty..." " Free expression of thought and opinion is one of the most precious rights of mankind: every citizen may therefore speak, write, and publish freely..." " Since the ownership of property is a sacred and inviolable right, no person may be deprived of his property except with legal sanction and in the public interest, after a just indemnity has been paid..."

1790: The Indian Nonintercourse Act passed by Congress forbids taking of lands from Indian tribes without 1791 congressional approval, but Maine, Massachusetts, and other states will continue to take Indian lands without such approval. ( USofA Constitution has borrowed the idea of federalism, pioneered by the Iroquois Confederation in 1570 )

1790: France's revolutionary government acts to revive trade that has stagnated as a result of businessmen, capital, and gold fleeing the country. The government prints assignats--paper money issued against the security of public lands confiscated from noblemen who have emigrated.

1791: The first Bank of the United States receives a 20 year charter from Congress and succeeds the Bank of North America. Initial capital of $10 million provided by private investors.`

1792: France's Girondist government issues more paper assignats as the war with Austria and Prussia creates irresistible demands for more paper currency. The new assignats fuel the nation's inflation, money declines in value and incentives to save disappear.

1792: The Mint of the United States established by Congress April 2 begins decimal coinage of silver, gold, and copper at Philadelphia.

1793: Louis XVI goes to the guillotine January 21. The king has been tried before the convention, which has declared him guilty by a vote of 683 to 38 and voted that he be executed rather than imprisoned or banished.

1794: Insurance Company of North America, chartered at Philadelphia. Chief business is fire and marine insurance.

1796: France suffers ruinous inflation as her assignats of 1790 decline in value. A bushel of flour sells for $5, up from 40 cents in 1790.

1799: Pennsylvania rebel John Fries, 48, leads an armed force of German-Americans against U.S. tax assessors to protest a federal property tax levied in anticipation of a war with France. Fries sentened to death, but, is pardoned.

1803: The Louisiana Purchase from France doubles the size of the United States ( 828,000 sq. mile Territory for 80 million francs -$15 million- )

1801: Secretary of State John Marshall, 46, is named chief justice of the United States. Marshall's court will establish fundamental principles for interpreting the Constitution.

1803: Chief Justice John Marshall of the U.S. Supreme Court rules that any act of Congress which conflicts with the Constitution is null and void.

1818: Failure of the Baltimore branch of the second Bank of the United States precipitates a U.S. financial crisis.

1819: "The power to tax is the power to destroy" says John Marshall March 6. The Supreme Court rules in McCulloch v. Maryland that no state may tax any instrumentality of the federal government.

The case specifically involves taxation of the Bank of the United States and its Baltimore branch by the state of Maryland.

1825: A French law of indemnity enacted in April compensates the country's nobility for losses of lands during the French Revolution. Compensation is at the expense of government bondholders, who are mostly members of the upper bourgeoisie.

FWIW......Take care.....Go Gold

(Mon May 11 1998 23:01 - ID#153102)
Law Course

For habeas corpus when you positively, absolutely want your friends to get you out and other trustworthy counsel :

(Mon May 11 1998 23:01 - ID#288157)
Mozel--if I understand you correctly,
this then, is the explanation of prices being "sticky downward", yes?

(Mon May 11 1998 23:01 - ID#256326)
you oughtta go into reportage if you haven't already. Fastest pen in the vest! ;-0

(Mon May 11 1998 23:09 - ID#256326)
Thanks Mozel

(Mon May 11 1998 23:10 - ID#210114)
If memory serves, you made the point that the $A was tanking because of the RBA's gold sale last year.

Sorry, but you're wrong. It is falling because of the Asia crisis. The Oz Dollar fell to 57 cents US in 1986 and there were no gold sales then. The Oz dollar has never been 'backed' by gold.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:11 - ID#210114)
Tanking Prediction
Sorry to have caused all the fuss yesterday with MVH prediction. If it goes lower again, I will be like FARFEL and BUY MORE!

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Mon May 11 1998 23:11 - ID#432214)
Gold Bottom
I bought some physical maple leafs today, "1982" - Maples to be exact. I have to thank the person who bought high and sold to me at the low. When all the 1982 Gold coins come out of the wood work, IMHO, for sure its the last gold bulls throwing in the towel and the time to buy...

Go Gold

(Mon May 11 1998 23:11 - ID#45173)
@mozel re unit of account is debt
My father, who died 5 years ago at the age of 87, was alive since before accounts were measured in debt to well after. He was extremely pessimistic about the outcome of the new order, although sometimes he suggested that "the debt will just go away," I suspect in a desperate attempt to reconcile his inner sense that developed in an earlier time with the new reality around him. When Nixon was to sign away the last of the fractional gold reserve system in the 1970s, he and my uncle bought a bunch of gold, which is how I came by some that was bought at very low prices.

What will be the end result of this great experiment with endless debt and inflation? The sense I inherit from my father, along with some gold, is that nothing short of a reversion to a non-debt accounting shall occur, sadly attended by much suffering.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:13 - ID#153102)
Sticky Prices Downward. Yes.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 23:15 - ID#384350)
"Frostrich" term, pure brilliance!

(Mon May 11 1998 23:16 - ID#45173)
@Nick@C The computer in my car doesn't need to know what
day it is to start, or to calculate the fuel mixture 60 times per second, or to apply the breaks one way on one wheel and another way on another, etc. Forget embedded systems in cars. Not to say there won't be problems elsewhere.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 23:18 - ID#384350)
SDRer, your 19:58 adj POG
After looking at the population adjusted Price O' Gold, the answer is obvious--Buy Gold, and move to China!

(Mon May 11 1998 23:21 - ID#284255)
Better make sure your generator is not all chipped up?

Reminds me of the time we had cyclone Winifred - which blew our power lines everywhere. Power was down for 5 days.

Thought I'd get stocked up with dozens of hire videos to watch from the safety of indoors - while the cyclone ravaged our coast.
Real smart move that one - duh!!!
The pen that strokes
From the vest that smokes.
Email chatter;
together with slow demand from India has resulted in this situation. [Source: COMTEX Newswire 5/11/98]
Hmmmmm....Buffet sez nothings changed, and "analysts" claim something else... Guess who's "short" the silver market, folks? Yep, the analysts!
I was watching the actual SIK8 trade last night before the Comex opened this actually was UP 59c per contract when I retired last night. When I got up this AM, VOILA...down 17c from Friday's close.
Don't underestimate the big shorts in these 2 markets, goldbugs.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:23 - ID#256326)
Kewl, dude.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:23 - ID#288140)
ICQ is a little congested at the moment. I'll open it anyway, for a while, to see what happens. Honey is calling me for dinner. See ya.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:25 - ID#210114)
Yan Augur also bearish

Precious Metals market summary

For the week ending May 7th, 1998.
C or 1
Gold Spot
b of B of Y
Silver Spot

The XAU waves are telling us...

May 7th, 1998
Began at
Current Position

Commentary for Friday, May 7th,: Two weeks of action and it's not enough to separate the
bulls from the bears. Although I think the answer will come this week. Under the bullish count the
XAU has started the last leg up on Thursday's low and should not have any problem to poke
through the 87-89 resistance zone. A close above 89 will increase the odd of another rally with an
ideal target at 99 the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from the all-time high.
There's also a trendline that could stop the XAU at slightly lower level for this week.

But I prefer the bearish scenario. At least I think for the next week of so we are going to see a short
rally early this week that should carry the XAU between 87-89 follow by another round of selling
with a minimum target of 80. But the XAU could also fall real hard and might find a floor only at the
60 level.

If you look at three stocks: Agnico-Eagle ( T.AGE or AEM ) , ABX and HM, all three printed a
nice leg down from their latest high followed by a corrective move. ( simple ZigZag for AEM and
expanded flat for ABX and HM ) . All three are on their way to retrace last week decline and should
find resistance in the 62% retracement of the first leg down. These targets come at: AEM:
$7.50-$7.60; ABX: $22.60-22.90; HM: $12.50-$12.60. If these stocks reach these targets and
do not close above them, It will bolster my confidence we are in for at least another wave down.

Gold has finished 3 waves up from its January low which I label wave 'a' of B. wave 'b' has started
but they are always difficult to predict. At best, expect sideways action but the odds are for more
weakness. Probably back to 280. In the very short term I don't know if the first wave down is over.
It looks like it but I would not bet on it. Although if the XAU is in for a short term rally I wouldn't be
surprised to see Gold moving to 302-303.

See you on May 16th. Enjoy yourself!

(Mon May 11 1998 23:25 - ID#153102)
It's been a long time coming, primarily because there was the interval of spending the gold brought back from conquered countries after WWII.

But, who in their right mind would accept a promise to pay securitized by nothing from the hand of a bankrupt ?

(Mon May 11 1998 23:27 - ID#284255)
EJ - cars and chips?
What about the chip that records the time of the last service?

On roll-over day, your can may THINK it has'nt even been made.
And refuse to do it's master wishes.

Or as in the article I posted recently,
May backfire all the way to the party.

Boom bang-a-bang,
Boom bang-a-bang
That's how it goes
How far it'll go
No one really knows.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:27 - ID#412172)
EJ;  l New Era
Excellent post.
"What is troubling is that the impact of an accelerating rate of technological innovation on the economy as a whole has thrown off the usual measures of deflation. Technology is highly deflationary and the technology sector of the economy by itself is off-scale.."

Precisely what has been bothering me for awhile and I yet cannot conclude the thought, the prognostication escapes me. You are on the right track here. The ramifications are so great I believe the New Era will be far more NEW and much more of an ERA than those who propound it understand!

(Mon May 11 1998 23:30 - ID#253228)
The projection line was calculated a few weeks ago so the model has the benefit of all the actual data prior to that; it is easy to locate the right combination of cycles + trend that will match the past. It is yet to bee seen how close the projection line is matched by future activity.

If the projection was as old as the time frame of the graph, I would be sitting on the veranda of my estate in the British Virgin Islands spending my days SCUBA diving and contemplating the world instead of bothering with bringing in income from my "day job".

(Mon May 11 1998 23:33 - ID#256326)
If you all lived in the third world as I do, you would be completely prepared for 1999. We have been living in 1599 for a long time.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:38 - ID#45173)
@mozel It's odd that the one nation holding the greatest
debt is seen as the great engine of the new world economy...

(Mon May 11 1998 23:42 - ID#253228)
Sorry, I did not answer you question. I think the S&P500 will more or less follow the projection line so for that index the top has already passed. The DJIA should have a similar pattern. The action today looked like some sort of failure rally. If the DJIA was not such a narrow index then I doubt that it would have had an up day.

I only follow Homestake Mines and the S&P500.

I posted one weekly chart toward the end of April that showed the percentage that the S&P500 was above ( -below ) a calculated trend line. One interesting thing is that since 1958 only three times did the market reach more than 30% above trend. It was there when I posted the chart. The most recent time before that was 1987 when it got near 40%.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:43 - ID#45173)
@Roebear What got me thinking about this again was the
article about the historical price of gold that's posted here from time to time. It notes that a good suit has cost an oz. of gold for most of history. What happens when a machine can make a perfect suit for $100 in 2002 dollars? Does gold then belong at $100?

(Mon May 11 1998 23:46 - ID#256326)
Received a message from Tbyron, oldtime Kitcoposter, on the XAU. Tom's proprietary nine wave cycle is looking at several more weeks of XAU strength and then back into the tank. Gawd I hope he's wrong! To the nines in '99!!!///more later.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:47 - ID#153102)
It still needs some work. But, thanks for encouraging the mad scientist in me.

(Mon May 11 1998 23:52 - ID#45173)
@sharefin Now you're sounding like a Luddite, my friend.
Just because a lot of software ain't going to work after 2000, doesn't mean all computers won't work or that computers are a bad thing. My Comet need gas poured into the carb if it's colder than 20F degrees outside. My computer-controlled fuel injected M3 will start in one turn at -10F, no problem. My 1963 Comet needs to have the points and plugs changed every 5,000 mi; my M3 never. My Comet will die at 70,000 mi; my M3 will be broken in at 70,000 mi and will last at least for 200k mi, if I change the oil. Anyone who is nostalgic for old cars doesn't remember how bad they were. On the other hand when the water pump went on my Comet it took me 20 minutes and $8.76 to fix it. I'd never try to fix the water pump on the M3 and I bet it'd cost me half as much as the whole Comet.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon May 11 1998 23:53 - ID#384350)
EJ, Money Supply is not fixed
Money supply is not fixed, that is It is not on a Gold Standard. So all this postwar inflation that has culminated will not necessarily lead to deflation, we could very well see a Weimar type inflation, currency destruction.

I agree that technological advances have masked inflation. Young people today should have a higher standard of living than their parents or grandparents, but IMO they don't.

Technological advances are offset by higher costs in other areas, notably medicine, housing, and taxes.

That's where this one suit, one ounce thing comes into play. Technological advances might lead you to believe that you should get several suits for that ounce.

In comparing your cars, I think you should think of comparable items of the times. Like the price of the top of the line car in 63 compared to a top of the line car today. Top of the line car in 63 might cost $3000, today $80,000.

And in reality, life isn't any better because of dishwashers, cars, TV. If we did the dishes by hand, rode horses, or played cards or drank and sang with friends, Life wouldn't be any worse, it would be much better IMHO. We've got more trivial conveniences, So What?

(Mon May 11 1998 23:55 - ID#177146)
A few hour ago I posted to this forum requesting info on RANGY action in the last six week. I got no reply. I sure would appreciate an update as I have been traveling for six weeks. Rangy hasn't reacted to the upside as most of the South African have done while I was gone. Whats up with RANGY?????

(Mon May 11 1998 23:59 - ID#411259)
..... I know I shouldn't be doing this .....


Down 5 or 6 cents on the open before a strong rebound, will close up.


All these shorts have to be covered..... soon.


Hold above 300 before rising above platinum before end of June.


Who cares?

OK....OK... I was just kidding. It held up nicely in the face of today's drops in the other metals. Gold will stay here. Right here.

I knew I shouldn't have written this

Uh Huh