Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:01 - ID#310222)
Golden Cheesehead

The venerably reliable Walker Market Letter has now flashed its second STOCK MARKET ALERT as of

the close of business on May 11, 1998! The market timing model is now 100% in CASH!!

..........would that include also all prec.met. stocks? I have heard often enough that the tide raises all ships, and vice versa,

so..., it might be best to sell them too?

what would be your opinion on that ?



(Thu May 14 1998 00:02 - ID#31868)

(Thu May 14 1998 00:04 - ID#275307)
Winston A

Your analysis of the insiders position is likely correct. War is what they rely on in times of deflation. I don't think, in the end, that they will survive this. It seems we are likely to see a total financial meltdown. Those holding real assets will be the only ones coming out on top. Insiders will attempt to keep the frac reserve system up, but I can't see how this is possible. I imagine you have read ANOTHER's stuff. I think he and those he runs with have figured this out. His gold for oil analysis makes good sense in regards to y2k.


(Thu May 14 1998 00:08 - ID#342376)
Walker Market Letter...
It's worth noting that the Walker Market Letter has four categories of investment strategies based on how much risk you are willing to take. The first two categories are out of the market. The other categories are still in, with as much as 75% invested.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:14 - ID#210235)
@Brother Oris
You can find Kitco Bar & Grill on ICQ at number 11998901. If you haven't found ICQ yet, here is a repost of Bart's introduction to it:

Date: Sat May 02 1998 01:10

Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) ( I Seek You ) ID#261187:

Copyright  1998 Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

One of the biggest problems in trying to make this site a useful and informative

discussion group is keeping it from turning into a chat line. Someone recently posted a

response to a request to have us set up an IRC server which basically made the

distinction between a chat line and a discussion group.

In an effort to eliminate the barroom banter but without losing the regulars, I have a

strong suggestion that I'd like to put forward. It'll require a collective effort to make it

work but will allow full freedom to chat without the restriction of netiquette rules ,

while at the same time improving the overall quality of this site.

For those of you unfamiliar with ICQ,it's fun, often addictive and was even the subject

of a letter of concern from a local high school to the parents of kids who found it far

more stimulating than hanging out in the park until midnight. ICQ is not a video game

but rather an internet communication tool that is way far ahead of any kind of chat

room in terms of features, ease of use, and functionality.

Once installed on your computer ICQ will allow you to chat ( by keyboard ) privately

with any single or group of Kitco participants while connected here or anywhere else.

When you connect to the internet all others who have also installed ICQ will know that

you've just arrived online ( can be disabled ) and you'll be able to check the list of all

the other Kitco participants who are also concurrently connected. Then you can initiate

private chats, group chats, send messages, mail, pictures whatever while still

maintaining the same level of anonymity that you desire.

When you set up ICQ it asks for an email address and nickname ( handle ) as well as a

bunch of other optional personal information. But at the very least you need to register

these two items. For our purposes I suggest that everyone use their Kitco handle as

their nickname, and if you want, use as your email address. It

won't function for email but will identify you as a participant or lurker of our group.

To support this effort I'm willing to allow as much bandwidth as needed to discuss ICQ

on our GOLD discussion group. Feel free to post all the questions and answers

necessary about setting it up and using it. . ( But you probably won't need much help,

since it installs flawlessly and is really simple to use )

The ICQ homepage is at, but if you want to go direct to the

download page you want At only 1.6 megs it's a

quick download and installation is a breeze.

Please try it. By adding a new dimension of interaction it will improve both the quality

and enjoyment of this site for lurkers and contributors alike. I guarantee that you'll

wonder how you ever managed without it, or we'll refund your purchase price on or

before Jan 1, 2000. Oh yeah, it's also free.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:18 - ID#431263)
There is no easy answer to your question! Gold stocks are dirt cheap--no question about it! But so is the POG! It is possible that in a stock market panic, the initial rush to liquidity will be a rush to cash. Should this plunge in stock values be construed as DEFLATIONARY, the POG and gold stocks could BOTH undergo some heavy selling! But, since not many equity owners currently own gold stocks or gold itself my opinion is that most gold stocks ( those not in the S&P 500 ) will not be sold off and may even be purchased as a hedge against calamity! Having said that, however, please realize, gold stocks are only PAPER PROMISES, like any other stock, and in a general flight away from all paper promises may also take a hit ( the guilt by association syndrome ) . ONLY PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE HAND, under such circumstances, WILL BE SAFE AS A STORE OF VALUE!! AND ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE STOCK MARKET BULL IS NOW OVER, GOLD WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN VALUE TO REFLECT THE CORRESPONDING LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE US DOLLAR-DENOMINATED FINANCIAL SYSTEM! So to answer your question fairly and honestly--THE ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT IN THE EVENT OF A MARKET CRASH IS PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE HAND! Gold stocks, simply because they are stocks, may initially plunge, together with all other forms of paper, BUT WHEN GOLD STARTS ITS RISE, gold stocks will OUTPERFORM all other specie of paper and MAY actually for a time outperform the metal itself! BUT THE SAFEST AND MOST PROFITABLE PLACE TO PARK ONE'S ASSETS WILL BE GOLD ITSELF WITHOUT QUESTION!

(Thu May 14 1998 00:20 - ID#284255)
Here comes ANOTHER one - same as the last one

(Thu May 14 1998 00:21 - ID#288140)
Brother oris
If you have Windows 95.

aurator has a Mac and suffered greatly trying to chat with ICQ.

Is anyone with a Mac able to use ICQ?


(Thu May 14 1998 00:24 - ID#238422)
Thank you very much. Will try it tomorrow.
Time to rest now. Good night, brother.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:30 - ID#253228)
More boredom than philosopher. Only gald I am not a dog, cause I can see the boredom my dog feels. He really needs playmates other than a couple old farts.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:30 - ID#238422)
I work with Windows 3.11., used all money to get into
PMs and have nothing to spend on this new hot
shot, Windows 95. Will this pickle place still be
available for such brothers as myself?

Good night for now...

P.S. I do have some cents left....for shells and ammo...

(Thu May 14 1998 00:31 - ID#238422)
Sam, I mean "ammo"=pickles

(Thu May 14 1998 00:32 - ID#153102)
What's Gonna Happen
Forced contributions for social security and tax payments will be collected.
Interest on Debt will be paid and new Debt will be acquired to give benefits to the distressed.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:33 - ID#401460)

For what it's worth, the Gold stocks have already taken the hit. The CRASH started last fall. Most Mining stocks are close to historical lows. They may go lower, at first, in a market down turn - BUT IMHO not much.

As the market fell a while back there was an indication that investors were moving to the mining stocks as the only remaining sign of value and potential gain.

And as always - WHO KNOWS.

I am in for the entire ride. I have owned ECO off and on, over the years, from $6 to $16. It is at $3 now - to me that is an excellent opportunity. ECO had a high of over $20.

I can afford to wait with that kind of potential out there.

However, with that said, SLE would have been a better investment last fall. The continuing war between Gold or Cheese Cake.


(Thu May 14 1998 00:34 - ID#286230)
New Jersey Entrepreneur Shorts own Stock.
Wednesday, May 13, 1998

Man's penis severed by vacuum cleaner

LONG BRANCH, N.J. ( AP ) -- A 51-year-old man seeking sexual
gratification with a vacuum cleaner nearly bled to death when the
machine cut off more than a centimetre of his penis, authorities said.
The intoxicated man first told police that someone had stabbed him in
the crotch as he slept, Long Branch public safety director Louis
Napoletano said.
However, officers who responded to the call for help Monday instead
realized the man had hoped to obtain sexual pleasure from the
appliance's suction, Napoletano said.
"But what he didn't realize is that there's a blade in the vacuum cleaner
right under where the hose attaches that pushes the dust into the
collection bag," he said.
When the man, who was not identified by police, turned on the vacuum
cleaner, the blade cut off part of his penis. The victim told detectives he
did not remember the incident.
Doctors at Monmouth Medical Centre were able to stop the bleeding but
were unable to reattach the severed part, Napoletano said. The man was
listed in stable condition Tuesday.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:37 - ID#253228)
Kitco activity and the price of gold
I imagine that when the gold share and gold reach a bottom this fall that there will be nobody but those the hard core posters left to spill thier brain content onto this site. Right now I judge that the bull energy is depleted. Could it be that you all are on "Viagra" and off ammusing yourselves otherwise?

(Thu May 14 1998 00:39 - ID#43460)
Goodnight Chet. Goodnight David. And goodnight from SWC 8-^]

(Thu May 14 1998 00:41 - ID#284255)
Bre-X story

(Thu May 14 1998 00:43 - ID#238422)
Why did you post this terrible story?
Now, I will not sleep....

(Thu May 14 1998 00:45 - ID#255151)

Selby--Wonder if that guy was on Viagra with, uh, no place to go.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:47 - ID#411259)
..... Ark & Clone .....

Arkbuilder @ 22:18 -

You are not wrong

You have keen eyes and clear vision

You see far

Clone -

It was a Sea Chanty posted by Rob @ 5.13.98 10:41

"How long have you been sailing, young man?"

"All me bloomin life, Sir!

Me mother was a mermaid, me father was King Neptune.

I was born on the crest of a wave, and rocked in the cradle of the deep.

Seaweed and barnacles are my clothes.

Every tooth in me head is a marline spike; the hair on me head is hemp.

Every bone in me body is a spar, and when I spits, I spits tar!

Ise hard, I is, I am, I are.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:49 - ID#238422)
And now, manufacturer of this appliance is gonna be "sucked"
into 77 mil. dollar lawsuit, 7 mil. for pinus damage and
70 mil. for sexual harrasment by this vacuum..
I'm just curious to hear attorney's arguments in court...

(Thu May 14 1998 00:52 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Gold Bug (SDRer_A = Our Legrand @ Mystery Story & Decipher messages eh!)
The Gold Bug: Mystery story by Edgar Allan Poe, published in 1843 in the Philadelphia Dollar Magazine; it was later published in the collection Tales ( 1845 ) .

The central character, William Legrand, has sequestered himself on Sullivan's Island, South Carolina, after a series of economic setbacks. With his servant Jupiter he finds a golden beetle.

The parchment in which he captured it is later revealed to be inscribed with cryptic writing and an emblem similar to the death's-head marking on the insect.

Legrand deciphers the message and follows its strange instructions, which lead him to uncover the buried treasure of Captain Kidd.
Take Care.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:56 - ID#253228)
Jumping in on the way down
I've done it. Usually I am close, but I know the feeling. If you jump in now you are not even close. September, 1998 now looks like the most likely date for gold shares. Not only wil the 36% correction take the steam out of any shares, but gold will in all likelyhood suffer till then.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:57 - ID#153102)
A man who mislabeled his things might be said to exhibit signs of madness.
But, by Propaganda, madness may be made the norm in a society.
So it is when we call paper money.
And we call a charade a market.
And are not convicted of the sin in usury.
And justify Pilate with Scripture and doctrine of it.

Someday not too far in our future, many things will be not as before. But, many things will still be as before, those being the things of true and permanent knowledge.

(Thu May 14 1998 00:58 - ID#20135)
Yes, eligible gold stocks dropped 2,283 ounces while silver eligible stocks continue...
their fall by -36,918. It is easy to walk away with these market as Buffet has shown us. You just keep quiet, buy your contracts and take delivery. Look how eligible stocks have been dropping while the price has fallen. The buyers keep getting more for less. Life is good. GEt your gold, take delivery and relax and enjoy, don't get caught up in the hype ( know your fundamentals ) . Goodnight.


Gold 35,000
Silver 21,000
H.G. Copper 9,000

FWN: 152350 GMT

COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 2

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 36,918 37,685,913
780,259 -36,918 52,160,252
780,259 0 89,846,165
FWN: 152628 GMT

COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

528,159 33,180 0 33,180 0 561,339
248,544 0 2,283 -2,283 0 246,261
776,703 33,180 2,283 30,897 0 807,600

(Thu May 14 1998 00:59 - ID#238422)
Are you saying gold is dead???

Do you see far too???

If gold is dead and palladium is gonna fall like
a rock, what's left???

After this pinus-hungry vacuum story by Selby and your
complete denial I feel like chicken tonight....

Good night, if it works, of course...

(Thu May 14 1998 01:03 - ID#253228)
I quit. Too many errors in my content and typing
That 36% correction I am referring to is shares in general, i.e., S&P500. It should be obvious to all that the gold shares are overvalued relative to gold. They are a component of the stock market and will suffer any reevaluation in thinking by investors, just as they benefit now by the enthusiasm felt by all these youngsters in the market, many of whom don't know what a real bear market is. New lessons are soon to be learned.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:08 - ID#210235)
@Good advice, A. Goose!
And thanks. I am always happy to have another peaceful day to create my life, and to build the golden ( and other ) liferafts. The future will hold excitement aplenty.

John B__A
(Thu May 14 1998 01:13 - ID#17470)
A little Cherry News
Belgium's Verplaetse sees ECB holding some gold

Reuters, Wednesday, May 13, 1998 at 20:26
BRUSSELS, May 13 ( Reuters ) - Belgian Central Bank Governor Alfons Verplaetse said on Wednesday he saw the new European Central Bank holding "somewhat less" than 27 percent of its reserves in gold. Verplaetse reiterated that the ECB would hold some of its reserves in gold but his comments appeared at odds with speculation that gold could form around 30 percent of its reserves.

"I think a part of the pooled reserves of the ECB will be in gold. We are convinced that gold is important in the monetary system. But I think 27 percent sounds a lot -- somewhat less. But as a symbol, the ECB believes in the role of gold," Verplaetse said.

Verplaetse was speaking alongside South African Reserve Bank Gov. Chris Stals at an event at the National Bank of Belgium. Asked how much gold he would like to see the ECB holding, Stals noted average holdings of European central banks was about 27 percent. Stals said South Africa could not stop European central banks selling gold, as several have done recently, but always asked them "to do it discretely and to think about the 10,000 jobs that might be lost if a mine was forced to close."
Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

(Thu May 14 1998 01:21 - ID#253228)
mozel, I unquit temporarily
Madness is more a friend to me than conventional thinking. If a "Jerry Springerite" is the norm or close to the norm, then I welcome madness. If Bill and Hillary's view of the world is sane then I am glad to be mad. Same to be said for the Republican opposition which if equally sane, then I again am glad for madness.

I remember having a conversation once with a pillar of conventional wisdom. I said that most knowledge was undiscovered and that the problem in delving with new knowledge was sorting out the 99% insanity from the 1% valid new knowledge. I also told him at least I was comfortable in not accepting conventional wisdom as I was 100% sure that it was invalid.

Of course, I did not make a friend.

In any event, the conventional wisdom about money is found in Washington and in their counterparts around the world. It is only when the fake money system breakes down that the truth will be obvious. Until then we must play the game and extract from it all that it will give. Sure is is dishonest. I have no moral justification from making money from a fraud other than that is all I have presented to me.

To take the position that gold is the only honest money ( quite true ) is masocistic as long as the overwhelming majority embrace the fraudulent money system. There is a time for gold, and it is just a few steps forward in the future, but in the meantime many who understand the fundamentals are going to take a beating by missing the timing.

So, if you are long, I thing you might as well drop your pants, bend over and get it over with, cause you are going to get f***ed. Of course, that is only my opinion and I could be totally insane. ( Even if I am, I enjoy my life and seem to manage to get what I want irrespective of my thinking. )

(Thu May 14 1998 01:24 - ID#290118)
Here is that URL I mentioned at KG&B. It is the Gold Price Monitor - tech stocks. Don't know why it wouldn't post in ICQ. FWIW it is another window on what others are saying about Gold. I assume other Kitcoites know about it and they do know about us because news here sometimes is referred to there. You can read the posts all the way back to #1 a year ago or so. But to post you gotta pay your dues.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:25 - ID#290118)
Gold Price Monitor
Nicodemus - I got yakking and forgot.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:30 - ID#153102)
Considering transaction costs and the absence of any guarantee that gold will be available from the mint without more markup tomorrow, the greater risk is to assume constants in the future. As I will not sell, they will never see my naked bottom. Got Gold ?

(Thu May 14 1998 01:32 - ID#284255)
You are so correct.

A share value is a 'notional value' ascribed to the paper script.

If Citicorp's shares fell 50% it would mean that the notional value is half of what it was before.

Would the notional value of HM go up or down?
If POG didn't move but all other equities crashed.

Think twice on this one!

We are dealing with goldbugs who only like to think about the POG and their shares rising.

It is against their logic to believe that they go both ways.

If the dow crashes the value of 'notional values'
Will be redescibed.

In a downward fashion.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:32 - ID#253228)
Mr. Squirrel
Noted you brought in $100 on a slow day in you business. Out of curiosity, what is that business? I note your intellectual capabilities in you posts.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:33 - ID#401460)
US $18 Billion for IMF

This is why AIG is lobbying for the IMF funding.
A slow takeover of Asian assets.

TOKYO, May 14 ( Reuters ) - The Life Insurance Association of Japan has accepted a request from American
International Group Inc ( AIG ) ( AIG - news ) to explore the possibility of acquiring Aoba Life Insurance Co Ltd, the
business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on Thursday.


(Thu May 14 1998 01:43 - ID#253228)
mozel, I understand your position
I am either cursed or blessed by grandiose ambitions. I do have a core position of Kugerands, various 1 oz. silver coins, and some junk silver all just in case. For my wealth building assets, however, I am now otherwise out of all tangibles except those necessary for day to day living. I took everything I could liquidate and transferred it to a Turks and Caicos Corporation officially owned by a nominee ( a chartered accountant originally in Canada but now a TC resident ) but actually owned and controlled by myself and my wife. In that corporation I am short a small position in Homestake with the balance in cash waiting until this fall.

It may seem like I am an unpatriotic American avoiding taxes and otherwise escaping the plunder of government. However, in my mind, I am just crossing the street to avoid passing a group of thugs who would otherwise plunder me. Actually, the majority of US citizens who are plundered by the tax system should thank me and others like me who refuse to be plundered, otherwise the tax rates would be much highter.

(Thu May 14 1998 01:45 - ID#255151)
Gold as Beetlebaum (sp?)
Remember the old Spike Jones recording, Beetlebaum? Platinum 401, Palladium closing in at 390. "And bringing up the rear is... Gold."

(Thu May 14 1998 01:45 - ID#266105)
@diamonds are a dog's best friend

Rangy/SouthernEra Resources diamond wrangle letter to the editor

(Thu May 14 1998 01:47 - ID#27341)
asian currencies falling

(Thu May 14 1998 01:55 - ID#401460)

Spike Jones - WOW!


(Thu May 14 1998 01:56 - ID#266105)
@l'il nash rambler

beepbeep beepbeep...beepbeep beepbeep

gold went beepbeepbeep

(Thu May 14 1998 01:56 - ID#253228)
sharefin, If I had to think about the movement of HM I would lose money
That is why I calculate the probable future movement. When it comes to fundamentals of market price, I could not live long enough to make the money I want to make. I am sure the stock market is hight now. I was sure it was high a year ago. I am sure the price of gold and gold shares is low now. I know the money system we have is a fraud. I know all great inflations are followed by deflation.

The question is how high is too high or how low is too low. I rely on the quirky method that I have described before in this forum. It may be wrong, but it is the only thing that seems reasonable to me.

Considering I am a guy that believes the fundamental unit in this universe is the vibration, and that all other things are made of vibrations, then it is appropriate that I would choose cycles ( larger vibrations ) as a means to predict the future. Since we have never before been through this time in history, I realize that is suspect that that new history can be predicted. So, the only way I will know is if I get to where I want to be via this method, otherwise I will eventually die and I won't give a crap, and all in all, one could say I had fun on the journey.

(Thu May 14 1998 02:00 - ID#153102)
Unpatriotic has acquired a collectivist usage. It seems Patriotism shall ever serve as the last refuge for a scoundrel to the confoundment of some good men.

(Thu May 14 1998 02:13 - ID#253228)
I understand patriotism as an allegence. By that I mean that I wish no man ill lest he try to harm me, and that I try to promote the best interest of myself and those close to me. As for most of my fellow occupants of this planet I feel an allegence, and I wish them success. As to the principles of freedom I feel an allegence. ( Am I spelling that correctly? ) I wish all success unless they commit an act of agression against me or other non agressive persons.

I feel no partiotism toward entities created by paper documents when the clear purpose of those entities is to plunder the efforts of honest person. I feel no patriotism to the US government or to any state governments in as much as their principal activity is not to promote freedom, but rather to plunder for the benefit of those they favor. As for most of the participants in these governments I wish them ill as a result of their actions.

(Thu May 14 1998 02:29 - ID#153102)
Away to ponder the probability of various apparent constants continuing into the future.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 02:54 - ID#24135)
Stiff Upper Lip...
Your comments US Diplomatic Corps struck nerve. In
working overseas .. I had occasion to encounter these
idiots several times ..
In Japan .. where they were completely useless
In Turkey .. where they were stupid and lazy
In Saudi Arabia .. where they were amazingly dumb
and boring .. like they had been hand picked for
these qualities.
In Dhahran, at a dinner party that my then wife
and I attended for mainly diplomatic people, I
was so unbelievably bored that I went to sleep in
my chair and was lucky to catch myself as I
toppled to the floor.. all this without VODKA as
the party was DRY ( in more ways than one ) .
I caught hell from my wife on that one ..
one of many black marks.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 02:55 - ID#24135)
Scuse .. Last post was for
Brother Oris..

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 03:08 - ID#24135)
to all
I calculate NAV on rangy to be
about $2 US.

(Thu May 14 1998 03:24 - ID#432148)
Jeil, as a fellow Libertarian I agree with most everything you say. I do, however, believe in loyalty to the tribe, and while we would agree the U.S. gov't has many problems regarding respecting the rights of individuals, when the chips are down we owe our country whatever until it gets so bad revolution is the only answer. Is that what you mean by allegiance? I do have some trouble with the Libertarian position on the use of force. Sometimes survival becomes a factor in this area.

(Thu May 14 1998 03:32 - ID#22956)
a good read...Yes.



go plat ;- ) ( ! )

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 03:40 - ID#24135)
More on Rangy
For Rangy people..
In doing NAV for rangy .. I noticed that the price
of rangold resources marked as $6 never seems to show
any attendent volume. This puzzled me so I phoned
Rangold to try to find out more.
This exploration is still in progress as most of
the chiefs are away in a strategy meeting, so Im
talking to the Indians ( literally .. the guy that
does the calculation has an Indian name ) .
So far, I find that RRS only HAS about 30 shareholders.
The stock was issued at $16.50 and has fallen to $6.0,
so I guess they are not happy shareholders but are not
so likely to sell.
Even if they DID sell and drive the price to ZERO,
Rangy is still worth almost a buck on the basis of its
other assets.
When the Indian gent phones me back, if I get info
on my volume question, Ill post it. I wont raise the
issue of the recent nuclear test ( some of that diplomatic
stuff rubbed off while I was dozing.

(Thu May 14 1998 03:43 - ID#284255)
Yes it's hard to view the future.
But the higher it goes the closer to the turn around.
Same with the lower it goes.

Gold under pressure again?
GCM8 = $297.7 and falling.

(Thu May 14 1998 03:47 - ID#252391)
Goose: Looks like silver stocks increased to me
At 89.8 million oz it looks like silver stocks increased to me . How do you read that they declined???

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 03:51 - ID#24135)
TRIBES R Togetherness
I believe in tribal loyaly ..
But I change tribes .. like a baseball player. I was
in the US tribe ( southern division ) , the Turkish tribe,
the Aussie tribe, and the South African tribe. I never
joined the Japanese tribe completely although I considered
it. I never considered joining the Saudi Tribe nor was
I invited.
.. nor the Catalan tribe for that matter.

(Thu May 14 1998 03:58 - ID#286224)
@ John Disney: Is $2 US for RANGY a change from your previous calculations?

(Thu May 14 1998 04:04 - ID#20135)
I look at eligible stocks for delivery. key word "eligible".
I suspect that you ignore the eligible. Just in for a second, must go back to my golden dreams. Folks, remember no one knew Buffet was accumulating silver until he started taking delivery on his silver contracts. The same game can be happening as we speak for not only silver but also for gold. Buffet's reasons for buying the first time are still in place as he has pointed out. Those paper contracts are a beatuiful way to sneaking up to the gold and silver cookie jars and getting all you dare. See you in the am.

silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn
0 48,878 37,648,995
-1,014 -48,878 51,416,911
-1,014 0 89,065,906

silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn

0 36,918 37,685,913
780,259 -36,918 52,160,252
780,259 0 89,846,165

(Thu May 14 1998 04:07 - ID#20135)
jims, you can tell I am asleep and still dreaming. Indeed, I am glad I post all the data, for you is correct. I neglected to read the far left column where the bought in some bullion to the eligible stocks.

Thanks for the catch. A.Goose doesn't read so well. Back to sllep...

(Thu May 14 1998 04:40 - ID#43460)
URL needed
Would anyone happen to have a URL listing for a daily price/volume chart on COMEX silver? Looking for something simple like the ones on Yahoo, but Yahoo doesn't have this chart. This would tell whether there were large or small orders coming through. tnx.

(Thu May 14 1998 04:48 - ID#252391)
Goose ,thanks
for keeping us updated on the stocks situation. I suspect someday it will be very exciting . . . some day.

What's this I see : Silver up 5 cents NO now only up 1 cent, nice rally.

Glad I've got a little PD/PT position - keeps me on believing.

(Thu May 14 1998 04:48 - ID#266105)

So Randgold Resources only trades on the LSE I gather.
Or rather doesn't trade and always costs $6. Every time
I've checked anyways, just going over for another looksie.

(Thu May 14 1998 04:51 - ID#392358)
Hello Squirrel, Thanks or the URL. Got it Liked it
The movie was great. Very life affirming. Good nite off to log ZZZZZZZZZs : )

(Thu May 14 1998 04:57 - ID#266105)
@i luv ur explanations

trading info - Randgold res. ( RRS ) at 09:35 on

latest quote

Current Price


John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 05:11 - ID#24135)
Rangy and Ragas
for SWP1 .. Down a tiny bit
One day Ill post info
and you can do it

for 2bro2b.. Got indian guy .. he say
he has talked to thier
brokers in London and it
trades thin at about 5000
per week.
He also says more than 30
shareholders .. but held by
Rangold, CAM, and Institutions
mainly. I requested a list of
major shareholders. He'll call
back - after I get all the info
Ill chew him out about the
nuclear test.

(Thu May 14 1998 05:25 - ID#266105)

Well, I'm glad someone's trying to get a straight story,

As regards the nukes, in general, the more the Marier.

(Thu May 14 1998 05:54 - ID#288295)

Have you tried You can watch the chart of silver futures and see individual trades ( free access with 15 min time delay ) use SIK8

Cage Rattler
(Thu May 14 1998 06:01 - ID#33184)
China non-state bank bond sale to improve assets, absorb liquidity
SHENZHEN ( AFX-ASIA ) - China's plan to sell 45 bln yuan to domestic
non-state banks on May 18 will improve the quality of commercial bank assets and absorb excess liquidity freed by a cut in the reserve requirement, a People's Bank of China official said.

The seven-year special bonds, which carry a coupon of 6.8 pct and will not be publicly tradeable, will be sold to all commercial banks except the four state banks, which will be required to buy special bonds worth 270 bln yuan in a separate issue.

An official from the People's Bank of China's propaganda department said the bond issues will prevent the banks from expanding lending ollowing a cut in their required reserve ratio to 8 pct from 13 pct in March.

The special bonds will also raise commercial bank capital adequacy
ratios, the official said.

Merrill Lynch vice-president John Pinkel said the bonds constitute the first step in a plan to sell a total of 32.5 bln usd in special treasury bonds to China's non-state commercial banks.

Cage Rattler
(Thu May 14 1998 06:06 - ID#33184)
China end-April total bank loans reportedly up 15.2 pct at 7.65 trln yuan
HONG KONG ( AFX-ASIA ) - Banks' total outstanding loans stood at 7.65 trln
yuan as of the end of April, up 15.2 pct from a year earlier, the China Daily reported.

Loans fom state-owned banks alone totalled more than 6 trln yuan, up 14.7 pct, the paper quoted People's Bank of China as saying.

New loans for the four months to April reached 153.75 bln yuan, of which
151.20 bln came in the last two months, the report said.

Outstanding deposits as of the end of April reached 8.44 trln yuan, up 15.5 pct, with corporate deposits up 13.1 pct at 2.75 trln yuan while residents' deposits increased 16.3 pct to 4.9 trln, it said.

Cage Rattler
(Thu May 14 1998 06:09 - ID#33184)
China end-April M1 up 14.6 pct yr-on-yr at 3.336 trln yuan
SHANGHAI ( AFX-ASIA ) - M1 money supply at the end of April totalled 3.336
trln yuan, up 11.2 pct year-on-year, the Securities Times reported.

M2 money supply rose 14.6 pct year-on-year to 9.266 trln yuan, it added.

At the end of April, money in circulation was up 9.7 pct year-on-year at
1.017 trln yuan, the report added.

(Thu May 14 1998 06:33 - ID#403335)
My comment was addressed to your "bullish" count. I said "The most bullish count would have us begining wave 3 of 3." APH's "bearish" EWave count is also still possible. If gold falls below the March low, then this bullish count would have to be discarded, and APH's bearish count would prevail. I agree with APH, EWave should be "background" technical work.

Bully Beef
(Thu May 14 1998 06:46 - ID#259282)
When the gold bugs litter the windshields of our nations cars and only two
or three visit this will be bullish for gold. After about 9 months visiting this site I would say the mood is bad. Well believe it or not read the chart. Yesterday New York was our friend.How about that palladium? Go Habs! Go Gold!

Bully Beef
(Thu May 14 1998 06:51 - ID#259282)
RLM...Good point! I'll sacrifice a chicken and get back to you.
P.S. excuse my light mood but if palladium can do it so can gold.Go GOLD!

(Thu May 14 1998 06:57 - ID#26793)
TVX news

(Thu May 14 1998 06:59 - ID#248180)
Only a matter of a little more time for USD to drop "Big Time" against other currencies

Thursday May 14, 1:39 am Eastern Time
U.S. thinktank says dollar overvalued versus yen
WASHINGTON, May 13 ( Reuters ) - The dollar is substantially overvalued against the yen, but only 5 to 15 percent higher than it should be against the mark, a Washington thinktank said on Wednesday.
``The dollar is overvalued by at least 30 percent against the Japanese yen, in terms of sustainable medium-term currency relationships,'' the Institute for International Economics, run by former White House adviser Fred Bergsten, said.

``This large misalignment helps to explain why the U.S. trade and current account deficits are soaring to record levels...and why Japan's global trade and current account surpluses have already reached record levels in real terms.''

The institute said its latest study also showed that the new euro currency would probably be somewhat undervalued and that Britain was right not to join Europe's single currency at present.

``The U.K. has very good reasons, in our analysis, why it did not join EMU ( European Economic and Monetary Union ) . The sterling mark rate is way out of line,'' said Simon Wren-Lewis, the author of the institute's report.

His report, entitled ``Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000'', showed an implied nominal sterling/mark exchange rate between 2.04 and 2.49 in 2000. Sterling traded around 2.90 marks on Wednesday.

The institute added: ``The dollar is also overvalued against the German mark and the future euro, but by a considerably smaller amount on the order of 5 to 15 percent.''

Wren-Lewis said his report, refining the research methods used in a similar study carried out by IIE economist John Williamson in 1994, looked at what exchange rates should be in 2000 if the economies of the Group of Seven countries moved to what he described as internal balance.

``Nothing in these analyses say anything about what current exchange rates ought to be, merely what they ought to be in the medium term,'' he said.

He said the research also showed that European currencies, with the exception of sterling, were not far from the range where they should be against one another. This boded well for the introduction of the euro currency.

``The current exchange rates and conversion rates for the euro are pretty much bang in the range,'' he said. ``I find that enormously reassuring. If the opposite were true there could be real problems for the euro.''

The report gave the following fundamental equilibrium exchange rates ( FEER ) for G7 currencies against the dollar for 2000, based on the researchers' assessments of sustainable current account figures.

Current a/c FEER to the dollar Present market rate
as pct of GDP

Japan 1.9 77-95 133.75
Germany -0.3 1.35-1.65 1.78
France 1.5 4.59-5.61 5.96
Italy 3.0 1,391-1,700 1,753
Britain -0.2 1.40-1.72 1.63
US -2.0

(Thu May 14 1998 07:01 - ID#26793)
World gold fabrication up 17% in 1997

(Thu May 14 1998 07:05 - ID#381139)
APH, My e-mail address is

I had lost yours also.. I only trade ABX and feel there could

be a "short term" move up. Here is one scenario:


(Thu May 14 1998 07:09 - ID#26793)
Australian dollar at 12 year low and other currency news

(Thu May 14 1998 07:13 - ID#248180)
@Ground Swelling - Perception change of Perception Currencies - Bloomberg
Mark Surges vs Yen on Indonesia Turmoil; Also Boosted vs Dollar
The deutsche mark rose against the yen and was boosted against the dollar as escalating political and economic turmoil in Indonesia undermined investor confidence in the outlook for the Japanese currency. Concern Japan may sell dollars to buy yen if its currency weakens past its current five-week low against the dollar slowed dollar gains, driving investors into marks instead, traders said. The mark rose to 1.7740 against the dollar, from 1.7784 late yesterday in London as it rose to 75.60 yen per mark from 75.20 earlier. The dollar was at 134.23 yen, from 134.20 late yesterday when it rose to a high since April 7 of 134.48 yen.

(Thu May 14 1998 07:15 - ID#252391)
When gold will rally
Gold will rally when moeny starts to be invested in it... I'm not talking about the bits we KITCOs bring to the party but MONEY. That will happenafter the dollar has started to weaken and after the stock market has fallen nad confidence in the buy the dip formula has been shaken. As neither of the two required elements are in place - remember the stock market must have fallen, not started to fall, and the dollar must have fallen, not peaked - the rally in gold is not eminient.

We may get a basing action - we may be in the base - it may be a long base with several false starts like we just had. But the new bull will not start unitl after confidence in the dollar has been lost and confidence in the US Stock market has been lost and that is a ways a way.

Til then go PLAT and PD you are the markets of the moment - let the money flow.ot b

(Thu May 14 1998 07:15 - ID#238295)
Recent weakness in gold reflects both ECB uncertainies and renewed problems in Asia. Why some on this thread gloat over Asia difficulties and argue these are positve for POG is a mystery to me. To the extent that Asian problems strenghten the dollar and trigger flows of flight capital into US financial asssets -- they are short-term bearish for POG.

The longer term impact should be bullish as the greenback becomes ever more overvalued and those who have suffered from its hegemony seek alternative arrangements. But the short-term impact of Asian problems has been, is, and will be bearish for POG.

(Thu May 14 1998 07:17 - ID#26793)
BOJ says its reserve requirements are not causing the credit crunch.

(Thu May 14 1998 07:24 - ID#238295)
Jims: As Selby has said nobody knows for sure when gold will again rally in a major way. You could be right the nothing will happen until confidence in US financial assets has been shaken up badly. But gold could take off before this if big money players like Soros start to anticipate the demise the financial bubble and move to get aboard the bullion train in a big way before the bad news hits.

(Thu May 14 1998 07:27 - ID#248180)
@Long Term Gold
Old Gold - if you are a day trader we are agreed. But the "Real Game" is long term. The giants play in that arena. Day Comex trade is a side issue from the "Real Game". You and I are minnows or less, maybe krill.

(Thu May 14 1998 07:33 - ID#248180)
From - Kaplan's Investor 1 @ US$ Overvalued
A study by the Institute for International Economics sees the dollar at least 30% overvalued against the yen on a medium-term basis, although short run a strengthening of the Japanese currency appears unlikely. C. Fred Bergsten, the institute's executive director, warned Wednesday that it is quite possible that the U.S. current account deficit will hit a record $300 billion in 1998 or 1999. Bersten said it is possible that within the next six months the dollar could begin a correction against the yen as the significance of the rising U.S. trade gap becomes a key economic and political fundamental. He warned that when a dollar move comes it will be very sharp given that disequilibrium building in the dollar's relationship against the yen. An IIE study authored by Rebecca Driver and Simon Wren-Lewis sees the dollar about 5% to 15% overvalued against the Deutche mark on a medium-term basis. [The study does not mention what will actually trigger the drop in the dollar, but history shows that a drop in U.S. equities almost always leads to a drop in the U.S. dollar, which is classically bullish for gold.]

(Thu May 14 1998 07:45 - ID#341294)
Junior - Overvalued US Dollar
Is there any legitimate play a person can make to take advantage of this disparity between the value of the Yen and the value of the dollar?

(Thu May 14 1998 07:45 - ID#284255)
Manhattan Media Myopia & Y2K
Over 50 percent of America's 36,000 cities don't think they even need a Y2K remediation program much less have a reprogramming effort budgeted and underway according to an International City/County Management Association survey There is not a single electric utility or water utility yet Y2K compliant. Many have not yet begun reprogramming their computer systems or even figured out the best approach for evaluating the Y2K vulnerabilities of the embedded microchip technologies in their process control equipment.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:03 - ID#410215)
..... Prices not be moving .....

Does anybody know why Bart's price page is stuck on May 8?

Is there another site that in doing price updates?

Little help here


(Thu May 14 1998 08:03 - ID#248180)
@Frail by name & not in Spirit - Good luck and good fortune
I can only share with you what we are doing at present,as I do not make calls or give investment advice. We are buying PGM & Gold mining stocks and physical platinum, gold & silver. We are also into Australian oil natural gas stocks. We do not trade currencies.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu May 14 1998 08:06 - ID#347267)
Following is hotline from Charlie Hooper of "Mutual Fund Strategist" Newsletter:

Mutual Fund Strategist unscheduled hotline, Wednesday, May 13.

This hotline is in two parts. Part One. MIRAT, our timing model for

U.S. Growth funds, generated a sell-to-money-market-fund signal based on

today's closing market data. Tomorrow we will switch the Rydex Nova

position in our MIRAT-Rydex Growth Portfolio into a money market fund.

MIRAT may very soon generate a switch to Rydex Ursa fund, a bear market

fund, so we recommend you stay in close touch with this hotline.

Part Two. Our timing model for Precious Metals funds generated a sell

signal based on today's closing market data.

Note: His Gold Indicators are usually very sensitive and result in fairly short buy/sell periods. Mkt indicators are Intermediate Term.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:13 - ID#284255)
More troubles in Asia
SAN FRANCISCO ( CBS.MW ) -- For a while it appeared that Asia was calming down. No more.

The United States, the world's only superpower, has lost control.
It's being defied in New Delhi; its economic advice is being rejected in Jakarta and Tokyo, while Beijing goes its own way.

Indonesia is getting closer to civil war. Its currency has begun to fall again, triggering declines in currency values through Asia.

India has defied the world by testing nuclear devices, foreshadowing potential military confrontations with Pakistan in the near term, China in the long term. U.S. sanctions are bound hurt India's fragile economy.

Deflation is hitting Japan harder than ever. Interest rates are at record lows. The yen is down to 134 to the dollar. Yet the economy remains stagnant, and unemployment is rising.

In the Hong Kong black market, the Chinese currency is selling at an increasing discount to the official rate. In 1994, this black market phenomenon was the precursor to an official devaluation of the Chinese currency that later played a key role in triggering the massive devaluations by China's competitors throughout Southeast Asia.

Should the Chinese currency go, so, probably, will the link between the Hong Kong and U.S. dollar, especially in the face of sharply rising unemployment in that former colony. This could trigger a new round of competitive devaluations.

U.S. role

In each of these cases, the United States, the world's only superpower,
has lost control. It's being defied in New Delhi; its economic advice is
being rejected in Jakarta and Tokyo, while Beijing goes its own way.

The consequences of all this?

On the plus side, these events will trigger another wave of flight capital
from Asia to the United States feeding into both our bond and stock

On the minus side, continuing deflation and devaluations in Asian
countries will further increase their competitiveness in export markets,
especially in the world's most open market, ours. As a result, our trade
deficit will continue to grow ever more rapidly.

As the trade deficit balloons, at some point the issue of an overvalued
dollar will begin to cast a shadow over American financial markets.

We are, perhaps, talking about a slow-motion exogenous shock.
Due to popular demand;
Vronsky has added 12-month charts to his Intra-Day charts of all Asian Stock Exchanges ALL ON ONE PAGE.

Don't forget to remove the 'B'

(Thu May 14 1998 08:15 - ID#289357)
Frail @ dollar/yen
Thoughts - not investment advice....

The easiest way is probably to open an account with the Mark Twain Bank and place your deposit in Yen. MT specializes in foreign currency accounts. This is a buy-hold strategy because of the costs/comission to set up the account. Not for trading.

Far more risky, would be to sell US dollars and buy Yen in the Forex market. For speculators only, with deep pockets, I think. I'm not sure about the minimum trade, but ( I think ) you would sell $1MM and buy $1MM worth of Yen.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:27 - ID#340459)
Gold has been a nickel up on a given day and dollar down the next. People looking at this trend
tend to put their money in US equities and Bonds where there is consistent currency appreciation compounded by higher equity prices or 6% returns.

All the talk about BIS vs IMF or Rockefeller vs Rothschild seem to wild musings while the POG keeps dropping. The facts do not bear out these theories. Moreover, If the Asian markets are down, it drags gold prices as they seem to be the MAJOR buyers. Not Europeans or Americans as epoused by many on this forum.

London and NY are no friends of Gold, not at all. West is more interested in short term gains and pursue these investment avenues.....

(Thu May 14 1998 08:31 - ID#340459)
TVX Profits

Stock symbol: TVX
Exchanges: TSE, NYSE, ME

TORONTO, May 13 /CNW/ - TVX Gold Inc. reported net earnings of US$568,000
in the first quarter of 1998, compared to a loss of US$342,000 in the same
quarter a year ago. The company's share of gold equivalent production was
106,900 ounces ( 87,700 ounces of gold and 909,000 ounces of silver ) in the
first quarter of this year versus 86,200 ounces ( 67,100 ounces of gold and 1.3
million ounces of silver ) last year, an increase of 24 per cent. Total cash
cost per gold equivalent ounce was US$210 this year and US$237 a year ago, a
decrease of 11 per cent.
Production for 1998 is forecast at 530,000 gold equivalent ounces
( 330,000 ounces of gold and 11 million ounces of silver ) at a total cash cost
of less than US$200 an ounce. This represents a one-third increase in gold
equivalent production and a 15 per cent decrease in costs over 1997.
Revenue and operating cash flow were US$37.3 million and US$41.0 million,
respectively, in the first quarter of this year versus revenue of US$36.3
million and a cash flow deficit of US$2.1 million in the corresponding 1997
quarter. Cash flow in 1998 includes US$38.4 million received during the
quarter on restructuring the company's hedge position.
Metals prices realized in the first quarter of 1998 were US$365 per ounce
of gold and US$5.90 per ounce of silver, compared to US$425 and US$5.80,
respectively, in the corresponding 1997 quarter. In February, the company
commenced monetizing its hedge position, realizing US$40.3 million by mid
April. The net gain will be recognized as revenue based on the original hedge
Part of the monetization proceeds was used to pay down US$25 million of
the company's revolving bank credit facility. Consequently, at the end of the
quarter, US$39 million had been drawn against the total facility of US$180
The company hedges gold and silver production, hedging more or less
depending on the metals' cycles. During the first quarter of 1998, gold
appeared to have reached a bottom but silver was increasing in price, reacting
to more bullish fundamentals and Warren Buffett's acquisition of a large
position in the metal. Consequently, the company's gold position was
substantially closed out to realize the gain on gold and to restructure the
silver position so as to be able to participate in the potential upward
movement in silver. The company's current hedge position is summarized in the
attached schedule.
While costs at TVX's five joint-venture operations were overall on plan,
total production was lower than expected due to operating difficulties at two
mines, La Coipa in Chile and Brasilia in Brazil. At La Coipa, a 15-day
mechanical failure in the mill lowered TVX's share of production by
approximately 10,000 gold equivalent ounces. The recently-commissioned
recovery plant expansion at Brasilia, which is designed to process sulfide
ore, did not reach design parameters in the quarter. As a result, the
company's share of production was lower than planned by 2,700 ounces of gold.
The first quarter shortfalls at these two mines are not currently expected to
result in a revision to the 1998 production forecast of 530,000 gold
equivalent ounces.

Greek Development Projects

In northeastern Greece, the company continues to receive support from all
levels of government and most local groups for the development of the Olympias
and Skouries projects, though opposition to the Olympias project in the nearby
village of Olympiada has yet to be resolved. At the beginning of the year,
Yiannis Drapaniotis, an experienced mining executive who was born in the area,
was appointed head of TVX's Greek operations. He is having a positive
influence on the perception of the company in both the region and the country.
During the first quarter, the Skouries internal pre-feasibility report
was completed and Kvaerner Metals Davy has undertaken to complete a final,
bankable feasibility study in the third quarter. Kvaerner's draft final
feasibility report on Olympias has also been received in the quarter; however,
it was decided to amend project scope and incorporate design improvements. The
final amended report will also be completed in the third quarter.
Based on information to date, the Olympias project construction cost
should be less than US$250 million before confirmed European Union grants of
up to US$70 million. Initial annual production is expected to average
approximately 225,000 ounces of gold, based on processing 2,750 tonnes per
day. Total cash cost per ounce is anticipated to be less than US$125 after
metal byproduct credits. Mine life would be at least 14 years at these
production rates and more ore is expected to be found at depth.
Construction cost at the Skouries project is estimated to be less than
US$300 million before anticipated European Union grants of US$70 million or
more. Production in the early years is expected to be around 275,000 ounces of
gold annually, with total cash costs of less than US$100 an ounce after copper
byproduct credits at an estimated price of US$0.85 per pound. The mine is
expected to operate for 20 years based on current resources; however,
exploration drilling indicates that the orebody is open at depth and to the
Later this year, when final feasibility studies verify the economics of
the projects, approximately seven million ounces of resources are expected to
be upgraded to reserves.
The above estimates for both projects are subject to amendment when the
feasibility studies are completed.
The ruling is still awaited on the Ontario court case relating to the
dispute concerning the Greek property. The three individuals suing the company
claim breach of fiduciary responsibility and misuse of confidential
information. TVX strongly denies the allegations and remains confident in its


At La Coipa ( TVX 50 per cent ) in Chile, damage to a ring gear on the
primary grinding mill caused production downtime of 15 days during the first
quarter of 1998. Mainly as a result of the breakdown, the company's share of
gold equivalent production was 37,700 ounces, approximately 10,000 ounces
lower than plan. Total cash cost was US$211 per ounce, US$10 higher than plan
though US$25 less than the 1997 quarter. The mill is now operating at full
Development of La Coipa's Chimberos high-grade silver deposit is on
schedule for production this July. TVX will become one of the world's largest
silver producers in 1998 and 1999 during the 13-month period that this orebody
will be mined.
TVX's interest in the Brasilia mine in Brazil increased from 33 per cent
to 49 per cent on 31st December 1997. The increased ownership, better grades
and a 10 per cent increase in tonnage throughput doubled the company's share
of gold production to 26,300 ounces in the first quarter of 1998 versus 13,000
ounces in the 1997 quarter. However, 1998 production was 2,700 ounces of gold
( TVX's share ) below plan because of startup difficulties in the new recovery
plant. As a result of the production shortfall, total cash cost in the 1998
first quarter was US$226 per ounce, US$30 higher than both the plan and the
1997 first quarter.
At Crixas ( TVX 50 per cent ) , also in Brazil, TVX's share of gold
production in the quarter was on plan at 16,600 ounces of gold compared to
15,700 ounces last year. Operating efficiencies resulted in total cash cost
per ounce of US$159, a 13 per cent decrease compared to the 1997 quarter.
The Musselwhite mine ( TVX 32 per cent ) in northwestern Ontario came into
production at the end of March 1997. During the first quarter of 1998, the
company's share of production was on plan at 14,600 ounces of gold at a total
cash cost of US$196 per ounce.
At the TVX-operated New Britannia mine ( TVX 50 per cent ) in Manitoba, the
company's share of gold production of 11,700 ounces in the first quarter of
1998 was 12 per cent higher than the 10,400 ounces produced in the
corresponding 1997 quarter. The total cash cost per ounce was lower by 15 per
cent at US$251. Exploration drilling between the 700-meter ( 2,300-foot ) level
and the 900-meter ( 3,000-foot ) bottom of the shaft is confirming that the main
ore zones continue between the levels at better grades, widths and strike
lengths. The zones remain open at depth.
For the second consecutive year, New Britannia has won the J. T. Ryan
Award in recognition of its safety performance in the metal-mining category.
This year the award is for Canada versus the western region last year.
Congratulations are due to everyone at the mine for achieving such a high
safety standard.
TVX is a precious metals mining company with two advanced development
projects in Greece, Olympias and Skouries. Production is expected to double
and total cash cost per ounce decrease further when these projects come into
operation, anticipated to be in 2001.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:31 - ID#286230)
Even the little Placer Miners are having trouble

Gold prices curtailing placer season

Chuck Tobin

Placer miners in the Klondike gold fields are hunkering
down and sharpening their pencils in preparation of
another lean season for gold prices.

I know a lot of us after this winter know a lot more about
our costs than we did before, Mike McDougall, president
of the Klondike Placer Mining Association, said in a recent

McDougall doesnt predict the drastic reduction in this
seasons work force that others do, as gold prices struggle
to overcome an 18-year low recorded in January.

Its likely, however, that nothing but the essentials will be
purchased, McDougall said.

There wont be any frills. Equipment maintenance
programs will be cut to the bone. The amount of money
spent in Dawson City will drop.

And there will be some downsizing of crews but from what
McDougall has witnessed so far, staffing levels are awfully
close to where they were last year.

On the other hand, if prices slide much lower, miners will
move quickly to pare their operations.

Some might high-grade to reduce costs and maintain cash

Its not a good strategy, because future production costs
will inevitably increase. But it may be necessary in some
cases, McDougall said.

The association president said the least change will be
seen in the smaller to medium-sized family-operated mines
like his, operations which he describes as the backbone of
the industry in the Klondike. Reductions in staff, he added,
are likely to be more prominent in the larger operations.

One company he knows of has gone from a crew of six or
seven equipment operators to three.

There are about 150 active placer mines, McDougall
estimated. Some 75 to 80 are the mines that impact on the
economy, the rest being hobby operations run by the
weekend miner.

Some of them have scaled down. I cant say for sure how
much or how many, but I think by and large, we will see the
same industry in terms of numbers that we did last year,
he said. Some people have to maintain operations to
some level to maintain cash flow.

The impact of depressed gold prices on the Town of
Dawson City is readily noticeable, just as it was last year,
said Dick Van Onstrand, owner of the Downtown Hotel and
president of Dawson City Chamber of Commerce.

Van Onstrand said if not for the presence of Viceroy
Resource Corporation at Brewery Creek, the town known
around the world for the 1898 Klondike Gold Rush would
be in deep trouble.

But yet, said an irritated Onstrand, the Yukon government
insists on focusing the bulk of its spending in Whitehorse.

Perhaps the government could have done some
restoration work with the privately-owned, but historically
significant Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce instead of
allotting $650,000 to realign what Onstrand refers to as a
perfectly suitable road leading to Yukon College.

Another $250,000 in renovations is going into the Taylor
House, on top of last years $400,000 purchase price, he
pointed out.

Van Onstrand said Dawsonites have watched and listened
to the Faro saga. In reality, the depressed metal market
has been pinching Dawsonites for a year or more.

In his business, the mining industry and its spinoffs provide
him with the break even months in the fall and spring, cash
flow that is required along with the few boon months of
summer to make his businesses viable.

With the downturn in placer activity, Van Onstrand said his
break-even months are sliding into the red.

One mine, for instance, has gutted its normal operation of
12 employees, working two shifts.

And those are the employees that typically drop the dollars
in Dawson, said Van Onstrand.

Its a big-time hit, big time. But it does not affect power
rates for the rest of the Yukon and its only Dawson City,
so nobody gives a ----.

Amid last seasons prices, said Van Onstrand, mines were
putting the brakes on by the end of July.

And this year ...?

McDougall, like others, sees uncertainty, but with room for

The precious metal market is likely to get stronger following
the free fall of the Asian economy. European countries,
McDougall pointed out, still have to decide how the
bankroll their new united currency.

Nonetheless, budget preparation for the 100th anniversary
year of the Klondike stampede was an exercise in
conservatism for the 40-year-old.

This winters price, after all, was as low as hes worked with
in his 20 years in the gold fields.

He said hes done his preventative maintenance to guard
against costly down time, and he understands his ounce of
gold is worth less on the world market with every upward
fluctuation of the Canadian dollar.

McDougall knows exactly what price he needs to break
even or better.

It is something that all of us are being very careful about,
McDougall said. It is a low price and most of us have not
mined when it is this low. So we have to be very, very

The placer association president said if the price drops
below $300, it may mean laying off one or two of the
employees he's hired for the season, leaving himself and
his wife to run the operation.

Most placer gold miners need to mine to generate the
revenue required to make the payments, buy groceries
and live through the winter months between seasons, he

In contrast to a tumultuous winter for the mineral market,
however, is McDougalls forecast.

The resiliency of the placer industry can be measured by
the number of miners back working their claims, he said.
Many of the operations, he added, are maintaining the
ability to go back into full production if the market

My prediction is we are going to be surprised at how many
people are back to full size.

All content 1997 The Whitehorse Star
Site hosted and served by Internet Yukon Inc.
BearDesign 1998

(Thu May 14 1998 08:34 - ID#342315)
geoffs re Ban
Thanx a lot for Ban info. I'll call and let you know, Charlie

Cage Rattler
(Thu May 14 1998 08:38 - ID#33184)
Do major fund managers follow gold?
I was listening to a local radio show where a financial reporter mentioned that he interviewed a Templeton fund manager of a $100 billion fund. When the fund manager was asked about gold the reply was: "I don't follow the gold price and don't look at gold shares. Next question, please."

(Thu May 14 1998 08:41 - ID#284255)
Down for the Dow?
Globex falling under large volumes. SPM8 = 1119
European indices all in the red.
Gold under pressure. GCM8 =$297.4

(Thu May 14 1998 08:42 - ID#342315)
Selby re Placer Miners
Do you have a website or other contact to McDougal? TIA, Charlie

(Thu May 14 1998 08:47 - ID#340459)
@Cage Rattler, I think the templeton guy you mentioned is wise, He would have been in bad shape if
he had sunk the money in PM's

(Thu May 14 1998 08:49 - ID#377196)
DJ/Gold 30.78 DJ/Silver ratio still not quite at 1997 extreme
of about 1900.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:50 - ID#341294)
Junior & Silverbaron - Dollar/Yen
Thanks for the information. I just checked. If anyone is interested, yesterday the dollar closed at 134.179993 yen. If my math is correct, if the yen is undervalued by 30%, then the actual ratio should be 93.925996 yen for every $1.00 US.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:52 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
HP profit warning
HP warned earnings "well short...due to pricing preasure ...Asia..."

CPI expected +0.2%

bill to repeal Glass-Steagal passed house by one vote - slick may veto if passes senate, since bill gives oversight to Fed - from Treasury where financial institutions can be squeezed for money - citi-travelers may by at stake

see that hwp closed 81 5/8 in n.y. but was much lower in after hours trading

consider this: embedded chips in elevators in NY city wire house skyscrapers will shut them down on y2k day, saving millions in commissions. The good news is they'll lose the air conditioning toom and brokers that make it up the stairs will suffocate

boy only 3 currencies worth anything Euro ...USD ....and Yen ....all the others are going to zero!:}

old swizelstick Thisselson ain't gonna raise rates even if Greenie finally decides to be a man and make a stand

oleman . . Thu, May 14, 7:08AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oil and gold are both cheaper in real terms than they were 100 years ago. AND FALLING! Bond yields are TWICE what they were then.Whole sale prices FALLING. Whither your call for higher interest rates?

if you haven't noticed there is a raging economic boom in America today ... if it were not for such lackluster performance elsewhere in the world rates would have risen about a year ago ..... importing deflation doesn;t alleviate the internal problems ( besides the yeild chart says it must be so:} )

I believe we went too far for all that to have any meaning ( except psychological )

besides rates cannot come down if no one wants to buy the paper ....Ma & pa are shedding fixed income assets to get in on all the "equities action" that all the bulls been feedin em cash left to put in nice secure fixed income instruments.....only folks buyin those are scared folks from Asia

and one day when those asians ain't scared no more they will withdraw those funds and move em back home....then whose gonna buy US debt? The way those mutual mania boyz have trained Ma & Pa they will use up all available cash to buy market dips and then hold there equity assets till they croak no one left to buy debt no more .....rates will soar!

course the Government won;t be issuing debt no more cause their books'll be all nicely balanced due to new age accounting policies:}

i read an article yesterday that said the governent hoped to hold inflation in Jakarta down to 100% this year.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:54 - ID#410215)
..... New Sponsor .....

After mucho behind the scenes maneuvering, and more than one "No", I have managed to talk my company into being a sponsor of this forum.

Soon the proud Monex banner will fly at the top of this page.

This is as it should be.


(Thu May 14 1998 08:55 - ID#401460)



(Thu May 14 1998 08:56 - ID#263379)
Just read on a YAHOO message post a very interesting tactic that a mining company in Denver is utilizing to cover debt. This financial maneuver if followed by all the miners could take gold production off the table, create instant gold demand, sprial prices upward, change the public and institutional perception about gold's availability, and put the miners in control.
Actually the reverse thinking of what the Central Bank gold scare sale tactic. The only caveat is the miners must believe that
gold will increase in value over time. A good bet.

1- Create gold inventory and borrow long term against it.
2- Each gold mine publicly announce every occurance.
3- Miners do not announce the covering of the debt when implemented, wait a year! Just like the CB's
4- Upon a gold rally, bigger profits.

The company reported doing this is Dakota Mining ( DAKMF, DKT.TO ) . They have covered their forward positions and now are COLLATERALIZING GOLD inventory!

Does anyone have "ANOTHER THOUGHT" YES?

(Thu May 14 1998 08:56 - ID#317193)
Congrats and thanks.


(Thu May 14 1998 08:56 - ID#340459)
Gold is nothing but a constant leak in our boat folks, I have been on it since '81 and thrown a lot
of money away. If this had gone to Intel or MicroSoft, I would have been living in a better House and kid's education paid for.

Gold is at a juncture where it may go the way of Dinosaurs or "Bronze Age", IF SOMETHING DOESNT HAPPEN SOON. All the entities with substantial holdings have been SELLING for years. I dont easily buy into the theory that all of them are stupid.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:57 - ID#286230)
I don't have a web site for McDougal. Here is the site for the Whitehorse Star. It is slow and may hang up if so click on "reload". They may be able to help you contact him.

(Thu May 14 1998 08:59 - ID#280215)
Preacher, IDT, APH, ALL - RE: Last nights Ewave discussion of Gold
I kind of enjoyed the discussion hearing all of the interpretations. I forget who it was that said you can't really use it alone. It should be used in conjunction with whatever else you use to analyze the market. I'm a technical trader and look at Ewaves after looking at other indicators like OBV, Stochastics, MACD, Open interest, volume etc..

Based on technicals, I favor APH's interpretation, BUT I still think we have more to the upside. FWIW, APH looks to be correct in that we have completed an ABC wave 4 up based on the highs in 1996. However, the major wave 1 that began in 1996 ended at about 375 ish. What I'm getting at is that yes, we have completed the abc, but wave 4 may still have more to go to the upside. Monthly indicators are still pointing up even though we have gone down recently. The daily indicators have bottomed and are ready to turn up. The Weekly indicators have gone to about mid range. My interpretation now is that we have completed the abc to the 317 high, but we have now gone down in a wave x and will then get another abc to about 340 - 360 to complete the wave 4. This I base solely on the fact that the Monthly and daily indicators are pointing up and the lows are ( so far ) holding support. If support holds we seem to be ready for another decent surge up.

If we go through support ( 295ish ) , then as APH said, wave 4 probably ended and wave 5 has started. I think based on other technicals, we've got the X now with another ABC to come.

Preacher: Your question about "overlapping". Your wave 1 of last night finished about 310. This latest wave down that you call wave 4 has already hit 296. In strict Elliott rules, this last down wave must have stayed above 310 ( your wave 1 high ) to be a valid wave 4. Thus the "overlap".

IDT: I agree that "Daily" stochastics and RSI have stayed low. But looking at this in conjunction with Monthly stochastics, which are pointing up strongly, suggests an upward move. It was either Martin Pring or John Murphy that said that if Daily stochastics and other Daily indicators have bottomed and are holding there, but the price pattern is still holding support and has not broken down, this indicates a rally coming. The entire argument for where gold is going from here rests on the current support area connecting the lows since January ( 295ish ) . This is the pivot point - UP or DOWN. We'll see!

(Thu May 14 1998 09:01 - ID#410215)
..... Prices? .....

Does anybodyknow why Bart's price page has not updated since May 8?

My second attempt at this question

Is he using another site?

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 14 1998 09:02 - ID#287404)
Re: Dollar
All those who view the $US as overvalued ( especially against GOLD ) are correct. However, do not forget 1983-1985. The dollar may get even more overvalued before the game is over. Meanwhile, with the stock and bond markets looking shaky, GOLD may come in for "special" attention by US govt proxies in London and NY.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:05 - ID#427357)
Nuclear Detonations in India Very Bullish for GOLD

INDIA's defiance of the US in exploding several atomic devices is indeed long-term bullish for the yellow.

Please recall India is the world's biggest consumer of the noble metal. 1997 demand was about 737 tonnes - up from 508 tonnes the previous year ( according to the World Gold Council ) . That's UP a whopping 45%.

Whether you are Muslim, Hindu or Buddhist living in India, you must be very worried about what the unstable future has in store for your loved ones. Your government is rattling its atomic sword. The mightiest nation in the world has announced it will impose economic sanctions. Many leading countries have condemned your government's actions. Your stock exchanges are suffering the contagion of the Domino Effect sweeping Asia.
To be sure economic, financial and monetary horizons are bleak, AT BEST. And the gold PRICE has been relentlessly rising in your own currency IN RECENT MONTHS. What to do?

You must ask yourself: "Does my family have enough GOLD to sustain itself through the difficult times looming on the horizon?


(Thu May 14 1998 09:08 - ID#410215)
..... Crystal Ball .....

Since gold is traded everywhere in US dollars

Is not the price today

The current value of gold

In terms of dollars and all else?

It would seem so


(Thu May 14 1998 09:10 - ID#340459)
Gold will remain down till greenback remains strong. US Dollar is strong because Asia is weak
Euro is the Black horse, if Euro does not give strong backing to Gold, then the last vestige / hope for gold is y2k.....if Euro or y2k does nothing for Gold........IT MAY BE THE END OF HER GLORIOUS HISTORY....


(Thu May 14 1998 09:10 - ID#36977)
@RJ - Bart's Quote Page: try

(Thu May 14 1998 09:12 - ID#340459)
Go Gold Go..

(Thu May 14 1998 09:13 - ID#317193)


(Thu May 14 1998 09:16 - ID#342315)
Gianni Dioro re ancient mining
With the availability of ore in that area at that time and the lesser population cf today, I am sure they could get the placer out. I have ref on
some ancient mines that even today if the original ore was available, it would be substantial. The Chinese dragline is thousands of workers with picks and shovels with sleds or a fashion of a wheelbarrow. You might remember the construction of the Burma Road. If you would like more info, let me know. One good ref is "The origin of Metallic Currencies and
Weight Standards" by William Ridgeway, 1895 and 1970. Thanx for this work, Charlie

(Thu May 14 1998 09:21 - ID#340459)
If the Dow tanks today, Gold may pick up a bit atleast I hope so..
Go Gold Go, about time too..

Mike Stewart
(Thu May 14 1998 09:24 - ID#270253)
General Stock Market Comments
Good Day to all in Kitcoland!

I have mentioned in the past that the McClellan Summation Index has a predictible pattern after reaching levels above +3000. I use an issues traded adjusted McCl Osc that hit these levels last July. The third predicted wave down in the summation index continues and is due to bottom in the next few weeks. I expect a sharp decline before it turns up for that last gasp rally. If the Summation Index cannot exceed +3000 during the final rally...expect the bear.

The market has bad breadth. New lows have exceeded 40 issues as the Dow hits new highs. This is bearish, particularly if t lasts for several days.

I am looking forward to the Bear, as I want to see when all the "long term investors" bail out. -20%? or -30%? Any guesses?

(Thu May 14 1998 09:26 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron re 5:54
tnx. will try it.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:27 - ID#340459)
@Mike, Dow will go down atleast a hundred today if not two..
Down DOW Down...

(Thu May 14 1998 09:29 - ID#434158)
Prices and Inflation @Sharefin
Prices of tangible goods do, indeed, appear to be falling. On the other hand, a 30 second "Seinfeld" commercial on tonight's broadcast sells for 1.7 MILLION dollars. Stuff that in your Consumer Price Index! In the USA we are so well off that the tangible "essentials" no longer interest us. We spend our resources: money, time, talent: chasing the "mind-candy" around us, the opiates of the air waves. We have a gigolo for a president, a joke for a vice president, and a cacaphony of whores for a legislature. No wonder the Dalai Lama accuses our leadership of arrogance. With the fall of the Soviet Union our next largest potential ally against China is India: whom we just pissed off. Royally. With nuclear weapons proliferating in nations the size of Iran, we have committed ourselves by law to decline to develop systems capable of intercepting nuclear missiles. We are more adept at the compilation, transfer, storage, retrieval, and manipulation of data than any people in the history of civilization, but have set up systems to do all that which are in imminent danger of failure ( Y2K ) and cannot be repaired in time. We are information rich and wisdom poor, and the rest of the world has figured that out.
Yes, I am investing in gold. And in silver. And in mining stocks. And in cash, some in the bank and some elsewhere. I am still considerably invested in stocks, although I have been reducing that for the past six months. I'm selling a commercial building and looking at farm land. But I think that unless we take up the power given to us at the voting booth the rest of this is in vain. Our power as a nation has rested on our ability as a people to make our voice heard both through the ballot box and through the power of the purse. It's time we turn off the idiot box, sign off the Internet, call up a neighbor and together pay a call on our local politicians. ( Better yet, Email 'em! ) With all the market manipulation and elaborate geo-financial schemes discussed here, an aroused public can make changes in this country very quickly. And yes, in the mean time, buy gold.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:30 - ID#340459)
Nukes media play are to draw more in Wall street away from Nuke Street.....
USA knew from months as pakistani intelligence had informed usa months ago as imminent..

Mike Stewart
(Thu May 14 1998 09:34 - ID#270253)
Old Gold
Late last year, you correctly anticipated that gold would be weak in tandem with weakness in Asia. Well Asia is weak again, so is the CRB, Inco, BHP etc. but gold is holding up relatively well. I take this as a sign of strength, along with the resiliancy of South Africans. Any comments?

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 14 1998 09:35 - ID#287367)
@ RJ
RJ ( ..... Crystal Ball ..... ) ID#410215:
Since gold is traded everywhere in US dollars Is not the price today The current value of gold In terms of dollars and all else?

With all due respect, dear Sir! The dollar **price** of gold does not necessarily reflect its **value**. The marketplace ( which is, after all, the concensus opinion of market players ) has been known to misjudge the value of various commodities from time to time. Look at palladium. One year ago the price was about $US130. Has its value changed so radically in such a short time? I think not. Rather, I think the marketplace has gradually come to *recognize** that it was undervalued at $US130. Likewise, I believe that one day paper will be recognized for what it is, and GOLD also will be appropriately **valued** ( in both senses ) .

(Thu May 14 1998 09:37 - ID#340459)
Hollywood/TV has contributed in making USA Great by girdling everyone's eyesight across the globe.
Technicolor Strawberry images in 3D and Dolby surround..

War is On between Natural Golden shine Vs Tinsel Gloss....

(Thu May 14 1998 09:38 - ID#410215)
..... Tom ......


Now, why does he show silver at 5.03 when spot is 5.52?

(Thu May 14 1998 09:40 - ID#317193)
Bart's humor..or the typing of the imput person. Happens alot.


(Thu May 14 1998 09:41 - ID#284255)
Dow down
Dow hit -95 in 6 minutes
With a tick reading of -666

(Thu May 14 1998 09:43 - ID#210114)
Mike Stewart; The Best (Worst) is Yet to Come
Asia has yet to tank properly the second time. This is nothing compared to October - December last year.

Brace yourself. Asia tanks, so will POG.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:44 - ID#317193)
Gold bouncd @$295 yesterday
Let's see if there is a bounce again today @$295. I doubt it. I'm getting excited again, almost.


(Thu May 14 1998 09:45 - ID#22956)
Do you mean something like this one?? ( ! )

it updates regularly and I have found it to be quite accurate.....uh huh.

And it is from a name you might just recognize.......OK. watch these NY boys/girls trade crazy-like

 ( ? )

(Thu May 14 1998 09:45 - ID#340459)
canada loonie is falling, gold is falling, but the sky is holding. It is only constant...
Jakarta is burning......, Chaos helps Sam and everything helps sam as sam is shrewd..very very shrewd.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:46 - ID#410215)
..... Crystal Ball .....

Actually the value of palladium has increased in direct proportion to price. This is what makes a market. This is economics 101. The paucity of palladium is severe and assembly lines close without it, it is vastly more valuable than it was two years ago, or will be two years hence.

The dollar price of gold is the ONLY value it represents, individual bartering aside, since in all cases one must buy or sell gold in US dollars before converting to the currency of choice. Were this not true, gold would be traded internationally in a variety of currencies. It is not, it is traded in dollars.

I did not make this so.

But it is so.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:47 - ID#340459)
@Spock, Please..Asia tanking helps dollar and this weakens gold and all other commodities
Asians are BUYERS and dollar'ites are SELLERS

(Thu May 14 1998 09:49 - ID#210114)
Midas A 9:47
Agreed Number One

(Thu May 14 1998 09:49 - ID#218386)
Silver Bug
RJ - The automatic update script on Bart's site seems to have a serious bug which inserts an erroneous silver price now and then. Your sponsorship of the site may enable Bart to replace his programmer and get this annoying "feature" fixed.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:50 - ID#410215)
..... NOT NAB .....

A close below 296 will not bode well for gold

Seems the ECB hype has played itself out

We are left now, as we always are

With a market that is ASB

(Thu May 14 1998 09:51 - ID#340459)
In this global environment, gold should be up and not down, i figure noone wants it,
Victory belongs to the patient one..

(Thu May 14 1998 09:51 - ID#317193)
Dec. gold @ $301.50-we will see

(Thu May 14 1998 09:53 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-Indonesian rupiah reels as riots hit Jakarta

JAKARTA, May 14 ( Reuters ) - The Indonesian rupiah dived below 11,000 to the dollar and shares linked to the family of President Suharto tumbled on Thursday as rioting across Jakarta rattled investors and virtually shut down trade.

They said the government may also have been behind some of the buying in a bid to prop up the market.

Commodity trading was disrupted, too, with dealing in coffee, rubber, cocoa and crude palm oil coming to a standstill.

"No traders showed up this morning. The office was closed because players feared for their safety," said an official at a palm oil trading company.

Finance firm Maharani, controlled by Suharto's daughter Siti Hediati Prabowo, dropped 25 rupiah to 100, a fall of 20 percent, while Citra Marga, a toll road operator controlled by Suharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, closed 5.56 percent weaker at 425 rupiah.

(Thu May 14 1998 09:55 - ID#410215)
..... TYoung .....

Spot gold 295.50

Spot is the dog

The futures market is the tail


(Thu May 14 1998 09:56 - ID#317193)
ASB vs. NAB- time tells all. NAB


(Thu May 14 1998 09:58 - ID#317193)
Yes. Now get that dog to wag Dec. contract down to $301.


(Thu May 14 1998 09:59 - ID#210114)
Going Down? Down Thank You, Down......
Close below $296 bearish. It looks like POG has already pierced the 100 day MA cutting the bull off in its tracks.

It all started with rumours about Belgium Sales that weren't true. I love the rationality of the markets..... NOT.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:02 - ID#210114)
What the hell's going on?? Silver tanking because of Indian rupee tanking?? Less demand coming out of India? Or has Buffet given the game away??

(Thu May 14 1998 10:06 - ID#254112)
India's Software Engineers are Unrenouncable for the USA
...and for Europe as well. I wonder what Clinton has in his mind when he wants to punish India with economic sanctions. There is probably no large software developent project any more which doesn't depend on resources from India.

How could the USA's software industry handle the Y2K remediation effort without software engineer's from India?

Since decades India is developing her economy rather independent. Because of the low wages and saleries, they can afford to acquire technologies on a do it yourself basis, instead of just purchasing them and depending on resources from outside for maintenance. I think it is completely impossible for the US to hurt India through sanctions. But it could very easily backfire against the US. India is not as vulnerable as Iraq.

My impression is, they know what they do and have thought it through.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 14 1998 10:07 - ID#238295)
Mike Stewart: the fact that the gold stocks are holding up well considering is the most hopeful sign in the gold market these days. But experience teaches that unless bullion can mount a sustainable rally in the near future, the gold stocks will sink considerably further.

Might be best for all of us to continue trading in and out of gold and gold stocks until something happens to fundamentally change things. Something like ABX vastly reducing its hedge position instead of Peter Munk just aiming verbal blasts at Ted and Andy.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:07 - ID#25171)
@ vronsky
Without doubts , your analysis about the reason why indians should increase their GOLD consumption is correct from a psychological point of view.
However , it seems to me that the elasticity of indian gold consumption is more driven by 2 factors : 1 ) abundant crop due to good mooson seasons 2 ) price factor.
Indian wedding season consumption depends a lot on this as the indian society is still very much agrarian.It is also customary for indian farmers to hoard gold biscuits during good times to be able to dishoard in case of bad crops.
The fact that the 10 last crops yielded record volumes has a lot to do with the hike in gold consumption in INDIA ( in addition to the fact that gold import duties were revised sharply downward for indian nationals coming from abroad, which had a statistical impact as smuggling was reduced )
The only part of the population which might be sensitive to your arguments is the working class.However , the working class might be the hardest hit by US or international sanctions.
Thus , I am not convinced that the short term impact of the situation will be so positive.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:10 - ID#31868)
CNBC just showed silver up 3 cents.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:15 - ID#317193)
Gold paper game
If charts could predict the price of gold all would be wealthy. A manipulated market price requires analysis on a different basis. Look at the June contract and open interest on a daily basis. This will tell more about where gold is going short term than anything else.

Only problem is at some point the dam breaks because some real money sees opportunity when the price has bottomed and starts to rise. Short sellers then push down the price near option expiry and FND. At least they do until the real money shows up and buys big time. This will happen simply because the opportunity exists.

Will this occur in June? Hope so. If not then Aug, Oct or Dec. All it is is a pyramid. It will collapse because it presents a great opportunity. Just as the opportunity to the shorts on the way down presented itself. A paper game. Yes? Then play it. Yes?


(Thu May 14 1998 10:17 - ID#254269)
Good morning all; lots of haze here in North Texas today from the fires in Mexico.
Heard on the radio this morning that there were some health safety alerts in Houston yesterday because of the fires.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:18 - ID#340459)
Coming back up, hope it closes positive..

(Thu May 14 1998 10:20 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ I would appreciate your comments. (Canadian Jury Duty & FEAR & Common Law ?)
May 13, 1998
Ex-juror can't stop talking about her case

VANCOUVER ( CP ) -- Gillian Guess -- an ex-juror charged with obstructing justice and having an affair with an accused killer -- seems reluctant to leave her defence to her embattled lawyer.

Distributed by the Jury Rights Project
In a case that has frightening ramifications for Canadians,

Canadian media are often banned from publicizingan upcoming jury trial. The judge in Guess' preliminary hearing has imposeda media ban on coverage of Guess' trial. The local newspapers may not beallowed to print your letters about the Guess case, but it is importantto them to know that many people care about the preservation of a juror'sright to serve without fear of later prosecution.

Twice during the murder trial, the Crown asked the court to remove Gillian from the jury. The court refused and allowed Gillian to serve. If there was any evidence to support the Crown's claims, an immediate investigation should have been undertaken and the trial put on hold. At least, Gillian should have been informed that her "eye contact" was "improper." Gillian cannot be held responsible for mistakes made by the court during the trial. A post-trial investigation of a juror sends the message to other jurors that if you have "improper eye contact" with a defendant during a trial thatyou can be investigated and prosecuted later without warning.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:24 - ID#310222)
jims (when gold will rally) ID#252391
Til then go PLAT and PD you are the markets of the moment - let the money flow.

Hello, can someone please tell me which is the best way to invest in Plat and PD ? Stocks? Which ones ----or futures ?
thank you

(Thu May 14 1998 10:26 - ID#317193)
Gold bounced off $295 again today.
This is saying something.Yes?


(Thu May 14 1998 10:26 - ID#228100)
Sharefin's Post - Excellent Summary of Y2K Issue
Most companies havent figured out what they have to fix yet.

Major corporate systems are very similar ( architecturally ) to a PC purchased at WalMart. Some folks look at a PC and see one simple box. But one company makes your processor ( e.g. Intel ) , another makes your Operating System ( Microsoft ) , another makes your modem ( US Robotics ) , another makes your financial software ( Quicken ) , another makes your printer and software, the phone company supplies the communications link... AND ALL of this stuff MUST be Y2K compliant ( individually and as a system ) for you to reach Kitco in about 600 days. Now multiply THAT times a few hundred users and add networking equipment, a payroll system, check writing equipment, general ledger software, Email, and all of the little scripts that your developers have written to transfer data from one system to another.

When this bubble bursts, this MUST have an impact on PMs. ( My experience/background is with systems, so Ill defer to you experts for analysis of Gold stocks and investment options. I certainly enjoy reading them! )

How many systems projects are EVER completed on time? I wish that I had a dollar for every time Ive heard from a programmer: This will get done when I finish it... I dont care when you want it or when its needed..

(Thu May 14 1998 10:34 - ID#25171)
Still, all this said about indian consumption, it is obvious that the current market price discounts a fall in silver consumption in INDIA.It is stupid as even if INDIAN demand fell marginally , the inbalance between offer and demand in silver would still be huge.
Silver is at the same time an industrial metal and a precious metal which should rise with the demise of the fiat currencies ( 2 years at the most )

(Thu May 14 1998 10:35 - ID#238295)
Midas: You sound a mite discouraged. But if even Selby -- one of our best forecasters -- sees value in gold and gold shares at these levels and is turning bearish on financial assets -- perhpas this is the darkness before the dawn.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:42 - ID#31868)
Of bulls and bears and other ridiculous adult game twaddle. I suggest that gold and silver are the only true, fair and honest money. And yes, it is an emotional subject in a world where the thieves, pimps and whores run an asylum for the fiat minded. A world where honor has been replaced by debasement, the truth for lies and a majority appear to desire being part of some grotesque global family. They go to temples and churches, but their actions connote their allegiance to that which is Godless, hypocrites one and all of the global misplaced fiat faith.

I understand your disdain. It is true that the exceptional in many instances has been dragged down to the lowest common denominator as suggested by Will Durant. I prefer to get high and live long rather than conspicuously being so proud of buying low and selling high. Progress today is no than a monstrosity of all that is base in man and woman. The eg too proud of the o, even more so when a decimal point is intimately involved.

We are not machines though we deify contraptions. And I would suggest to you that if your dog is bored, perhaps you should try and liven up his best friend. Have a shot of tequila and then go for a walk, kick a can, make a child smile.

Gulp to ya.


(Thu May 14 1998 10:44 - ID#410215)
..... Gold is fighting the good fight today, yes? .....

Got one of those songs in my head that will not go away. This is an attempt to exorcise this demon, or infect the rest: Remember "Petticoat Junction"?

The platinum train is rollin' down the track

At the Junction

( Girls go ) PGM Junction!

The price is goin' up and it ain't commin' back

To the Junction

( Girls again ) PGM Junction!


(Thu May 14 1998 10:54 - ID#287277)
Your business in trouble? Need a loan? Better have GOLD! IT IS AN ASSET!
One is lead to some wondrous sites, in simply checking out German territories...
As if derivatives were not enough, check the London Forfaiting Comapny Ltd. and appreciate what underpins a series of rather LARGE derivatives held by major banks....There is financial chaos out there, NOW...weigh EVERY news story about nuclear explosions, riots, etc., in the balance of THIS is the crisis, and THIS is what they CAN NOT allow to hit the news stands...



Look at the clients and the sums London Forfaitings annual report and get a sense of the Asia impact...and understand that the forfaiting contracts are tied back to derivative schemes....

( c ) PARIS BANKING SYNDICATE--See Loan Guarantees>>

Project funding is available from a UK based source. The Lenders are drawing off of a pension fund pool in excess of $200 Billion. Loans can be extended in U. S. Dollars, Deutschmarks, Swiss Francs and British Pounds.

( e ) ASSET BACKED LOANS For assets that have an immediate resale value such as Treasury Bills or GOLD, the Trader may be able to obtain a
line of credit equal to 90% or 95% of the value of the asset. For less marketable assets such as mineral or timber reserves, the hypothecation rate may be only 40%.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:56 - ID#210235)
I appreciate you spending some of your influence at Monex winning Bart - and by extension, us - their support. Thanks, or in the dialect of Southern California ( Sam's teaching me at the Kitco Bar & Grill ) Cowabunga, that's gnarley, dude!

(Thu May 14 1998 10:57 - ID#57232)
A Real Y2k Story for you all!
All: I just spent the last 3 days in Detroit. It's better now than I can recall in the last three years by the way. Real estate up 10x downttown due to planned Casinos.

What Happened: I went to a restaurant late last Sunday night, and used a new charge card with valid date range 3/98-3/00. Fifteen minutes later, the waitress came out and asked me if she could use another credit card, because they were having a 'little trouble'. I said that I would rather use the one I gave her. Fifteen minutes later, I became concerned because the waitress had disappeared. I inquired, and the manager came out and asked me if I could 'talk to the Bank'. I thought that was very odd, and followed her into a back room, where a credit card person was on the line ( this was midnight in Detroit ) . She asked me what were the last four digits of my social security card, and could I please show my drivers license to the restaurant manager. I did both of these, and than ask what was the problem? The answer was, 'she did not know'. The manager then asked for approval of the restaurant charge, which was approved.

I then asked the restaurant manager what had happened, and she somewhat sheepishly confided to me that she had typed in '99' for the expiration date, as she had done many times in the past. I then noticed the old computer she had, and told her that she needed to upgrade her computer to be year 2k compliant. During the next three days I ran up some other bills on that credit card with no problems, but every time I used it I reminded whoever it was to type in the correct expiration date.

When I got home last night, I learned that the credit card company had also called my home to see if the Detroit charges were legitimate.

Interesting experience. This clearly shows how the y2k problem will evolve. Any non-y2k compliant computer in a credit card transaction chain, for example, will bring that transaction to a halt. Then the ( much slower human element intervenes, and the validity of the transaction must be verified. Multiply what happened to me several million times, and include all financial trasactions. The weakest link in the chain is where the chain breaks, and the longer the chain the greater the risk.

I am relieved that the y2k problem is becoming evident to the 'average' American restaurant manager now, and not just on Dec 31, 1999. The embedded chip problem will not be evident until y2k give or take one month or so. The y2k awakening in Europe, Asia, and South America is apparently far behind that of the USA.

(Thu May 14 1998 10:58 - ID#431263)
(FRAU (LEIN?) LADY BUG!) ID#431263:
Herr Kaeskopf,......and HighRise,

thank you for your answers and advise ! ...much obliged


(Thu May 14 1998 11:00 - ID#31868)
In another piece of news that we did not have time to verify this morning, one of our sources tells us that it was published in a South African newspaper in the past few days that a decision had been made on the gold backing for the new euro over last weekend. A French official, according to this source, said that the agreed upon figure would be 27.5%. Once again, we cannot verify this but if it is the case, that high a figure could catapult gold through resistance levels up around $315. A request to our readers in South Africa: If you have any information along these lines either as verification or denial, could you please e-mail it to us and we'll pass along to USAGOLDers.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:01 - ID#280215)
TYoung Re: Open Interest on June Gold

Since our latest top of about 3168, to our current price, open interest has fallen with the price. This indicates that frustrated/nervous longs have gotten out waiting to LOAD UP. This doesn't indicate that new shorts have come in. This is positive as you say, and to me is another indicator ( along with Monthly indicators and bottoming of Daily ) that says we'll hold or if we drop further, it should be short-lived with a spike up sharply to start the next upward push.

This is fun to watch!

(Thu May 14 1998 11:02 - ID#287277)
Sorry--to get to the International Finance site
you'll have to cut and paste --it's worth the trouble...

(Thu May 14 1998 11:02 - ID#432157)
UsaGOLD-Rumor from South Africa-27.5 %Gold backing for Euro

(Thu May 14 1998 11:04 - ID#225273)
Sonoma Resources
There was some interest here at one time in Sonoma. I see that today SNA announced the completion of a non-brokered private placement at C$.15. The company insiders just loaded up on cheap stock, so I would now expect them to begin working to move the share price higher.
I see that Wendy McCleery got 1 million shares and Adrian Hobkirk got 500,000. Wendy is Pat McCleery's wife, and Pat is a director of the company. Hobkirk is also a director.
The company doesn't have a viable project right now, although a joint-venture could be worked out on its Argentine zinc property.
But I now look for management to find a project and get to moving on it.
It's not as easy for a promoter to move a Vancouver stock higher as it once was. But I'm sure we'll see a good effort to do that.
Ol' Wendy has a habit of making money on the cheap shares she gets.
So for long-suffering Sonoma fans, things should improve a bit now.

The Preacher

(Thu May 14 1998 11:04 - ID#210235)
@The east heats up
Pakistan planning a nuclear detonation as early as Sunday. Clinton's attempts to dissuade said to be unsuccessful.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:04 - ID#335190)
Water = River of Grass @ Gold & Golden Years (Wisemen, are not always men)
May 14, 1998

Marjory Stoneman Douglas, grande dame of Everglades, dead at 108

MIAMI ( AP ) -- Environmentalist Marjory Stoneman Douglas, the tireless grande dame of the Florida Everglades who led the fight to preserve her "river of grass," died today. She was 108.

Friends of the Everglades, which she helped found, once called her "the giant on whose shoulders we all stand."

"It's not too late or we wouldn't be working. We simply cannot let everything be destroyed. We can't do that, not if we want water. We've got to take care of what we have," Douglas said in a 1990 interview.

But drought and pollution, particularly runoff from the region's sugar farms, have continued to keep the longterm fate of the region in doubt.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:07 - ID#25171)
Your discouragement is understandable.I have been buying GOLD only for 5 years and lost some money.The big loss is not in my GOLD buying but in the fact that to be a "GOLBUG", you need a certain frame of thinking.That is what kept me from participating in the stock bull run.I am not proud because if I am eventually right about the demise of the financial system, I still am bad about timing. The worst being that I am a professional derivative trader.Luckily , derivative trading is more about arbitrage and statistics than trading.The trading part, is very short term orientated.Still it is painfull and it hurts my pride.
I don't care .
When and if I am right , the reward will be the difference between life and death for my family.What I missed here is marginal money.What I will avoid is total destruction of wealth.
Don't give up.The manipulation will last until the position is unsustainable.
The day the general public experiences a loss in purchasing power of the same magnitude as ASIAN folks , no central bank or IMF manip will come in the way of the big TSUNAMI.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:07 - ID#333126)
a golden seepage?

funny, they keep coming up with articles like these ... who knows what to believe nowadays?

(Thu May 14 1998 11:08 - ID#284255)
Are we in a glass bubble?
Ratio of Stock Earnings Yield to Bond Yield - 1928 to 1997

(Thu May 14 1998 11:10 - ID#225273)
Straddler: Two Things

First, thanks for your wave analysis earlier. It's too complicated for me to grasp, but I appreciate a sharp mind when I see one.

Second, a newsletter writer from Calgary named Robert McAllister has been saying that there is a gap on the daily chart of gold down around the $292 area. He's been hoping to see that gap filled so that when gold moves higher it won't have a need to come back and fill it later.
Personally, I don't see the gap and don't know what line of the gold price he follows.
I do know he's looking for $400 gold by year's end.
Do you have any knowledge of a gap around $292 that needs filling?

The Preacher

(Thu May 14 1998 11:13 - ID#210235)
@Eloquence abounds as usual in Clinton White House
On Pakistan nuclear test probability:

"No one expects them not to have a test," the

Times said, citing an unidentified Clinton

administration official.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:14 - ID#344286)
Cueball's partial PGM library
RJ, just a thankyou for your contributions>

(Thu May 14 1998 11:27 - ID#254112)
Rumor from USAGOLD: EURO Backing 27.5% ????
Here is the quotation from USAGOLD website:

" In another piece of news that we did not have time to verify this
morning, one of our sources tells us that it was published in a South African newspaper in the past few days that a decision had been made on the gold backing for the new euro over last weekend. A French official, according to this source, said that the agreed upon figure would be 27.5%. Once again, we cannot verify this but if it is the case, that high a figure could catapult gold through resistance levels up around $315.
A request to our readers in South Africa: If you have any information along these lines either as verification or denial, could you please e-mail it to us and we'll pass along to USAGOLDers."

End of quotation.


(Thu May 14 1998 11:27 - ID#7568)

I've been away for the last two days and haven't had time to catch up on the Kitco news-flow. Please forgive me if my silver comments are a rehash of what has gone before.

As I said a few days back, the risk in the silver market was that the major technical funds would continue selling the market, moving from a position of small short to big short. I assigned this event a low probability, because I did not think that the dealers would push the market low enough to make it happen, but happen it did. The biggest piece of selling came from the biggest of the systematic fund players. Best guess is that this one fund is now short to the tune of 50 or 60 million ounces. This represents some 60 - 70% of comex inventories. A staggering number.

Because the game is being played in very large size, there is always a very anxious and skittish tone to the market. When the big fish are not feeding, the market gets very thin and the dealers find it hard to make a living. Their focus then becomes trying to get in front of the next big wave. The last wave was certainly down, the next one is yet to be seen.

The biggest feature in this market are the shorts in the trend following community, against the longs of the macro hedge players. The next giant move in the market will occur when one side wins. If you believe that Buffett et. al. will fold their tent in the face of whatever economic scenario confronts them then you will be short the market. If you believe that the market will smoke out the shorts then you want to own it. It's no secret where my thoughts lie.

Whatever the outcome, the resolution is going to provide some extraordinary fireworks. Given the current situation, it is surprising that the option volatilities do not reflect this potential.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:32 - ID#269409)
Gold Report
Gold is as "ASB" as "ASB" can get ( IMHO )

(Thu May 14 1998 11:35 - ID#153102)
Prosecuting jurors. New trend. American case in Colorado.
Political Law at work. Common-law superseded virtually entirely.
Rights replaced by obligations enforced by the worshippers of Baal.
Welcome to the justice of the NWO.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:37 - ID#340459)
It will make my day if the close is positive..
y2k come on down for the party...

(Thu May 14 1998 11:37 - ID#57232)
Asleep at the Wheel? CIA and India Nuclear testing
sharefin: I think you posted that the US has lost some credibility in the eyes of the rest of the world, as revealed by India's nuclear testing, 24 years after the last test. Apparently India did some more underground tests last night, just to make sure the US got the message. Pakistan will of course follow suit.

It takes years for a country such as the US to gain credibility with its allies, and other countries, and months to lose it. Blaming the CIA is just covering your rear end, as they cannot be blamed for the additional tests in India this AM.

I think the erratic market behavior over the last few days is due to the India situation, the uncertain SEAsia situation, and the Hewlett-Packard earning surprise. HWP is down 10 last I checked. I was waiting for this, and had sold my HWP calls a little too soon. The reason I did this is that I could not understand how computer company earnings would go up if $2000-$3000 HP 233Mhz PII's are now going for $800. Anyone know if the book to bill ratio is really going up as the markets are predicting? I doubt it.

What is interesting about the news from this AM is that the newscasters are talking about the SEAsian situation again. The last time SEAsia was in the news to this degree was back in October of 1997.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 11:38 - ID#24135)
the RSA Rumour Mill
to all
I have not seen that in the papers.
Also, If it were in the RSA papers I
would not hang my hat on it. The
papers here .. I dont know.. they
tend to overstate things a LITTLE
bit. Remember Mackay's article on the
"KITTY" .. gold from prior years that
miners here had saved and were now
pretending to mine. Pure utter Baloney.
I started a rumour that the ECB
would hold 20 %. It's come back to
me several times.. It must be TRUE.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:40 - ID#194311)
Open the floodgates.....major bank failures are possible again.
these are the very laws that were deemed absolutely necessary to stop another "Big One" back in 1929....seems like everything is back in place for another "Big One" intelligent are these policy makers of America?

U.S. House passes landmark banking reforms

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The House of Representatives
Wednesday passed landmark legislation by a vote of 214 to 213
that would eliminate Depression-era banking laws and allow
banks, securities and insurance firms to get into one another's
lines of business.
The legislation, shadowed by threats of a presidential veto,
would permit financial services companies to conduct a wide
range of activities, but only through a bank holding company
structure rather than subsidiaries. Those holding companies
would be regulated by the Federal Reserve Board.
Congress has failed almost a dozen times in the past 20
years to pass the controversial reforms because of differences
between lawmakers and industry groups and turf battles among
But recently announced mergers, including the planned union
of Citicorp and brokerage and insurance giant Travelers Group
Inc. forced financial services reform back on the congressional
agenda. In March, House leaders had to withdraw the legislation
to avoid defeat.
Major banking groups have opposed the legislation, fearing
it would put smaller community banks at a disadvantage.
Senate passage remains uncertain because there is limited
time left on the legislative calendar this year.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:41 - ID#280215)
Preacher: 292 gap
I looked back at the June basis chart and noticed what I think is the gap he might be talking about. It's only about 70 cents but is still a gap.

On Jan 15, ( june basis ) the high, low, close was 2903, 2860, 2895.

On Jan 16, high, low, close was 2980, 2910, 2942.

Looks like a 70 cent gap. However, it also looks like at was already filled on the March 18 low of 2899. I guess it depends on the charts. Maybe his data doesn't show the low. Sometimes data from the Wall Street for example, shows high's and lows from overnight trading and he may have data that filters this out and does not show the 2899 low on the 18. Maybe someone else out there can verify these numbers. Thanks!

(Thu May 14 1998 11:42 - ID#153102)
Kudos & thanks for your efforts in obtaining a Kitco sponsor.
And a good one to boot.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:45 - ID#7568)

Being that this is primarily a gold forum, how could I have left out this little nugget.

The same fund which is short the silver, may be short on the order of 500,000 ounces of gold. This was the reputed source of the overnight selling two days back.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:45 - ID#340459)
MicroSoft NOT shipping Win98 as scheduled..HP and Compaq are in a price war , will hurt tech sector

(Thu May 14 1998 11:46 - ID#269409)
@ DA
I'm sorely tempted to make a derivitaves play with silver, though normally such gambling, violates my investment strategy. Whom would you recommend as a low commision, fair spread, house for options?

Last time I tried an option play with silver was around 1981. It moved $4,00 in my direction and I only broke even after comissions and premiums, .. the spread and costs killed me as physical rose like Bob Dole on Viagra! Soured me on derivitaves, but after the spectacular gains in the stock marketI guess a little risk on my second favorite metal may be in order.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:47 - ID#20748)
Veneroso says
gold market poised for a rally. FWIW here's the latest report.

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
May 14,1998
Issue 05.03

Gold's Six Month Base May Be Near Completion
If the EMU related selling ( e.g. Belgium ) and Asian liquidation ( e.g. Korea )
is over ( as we believe ) , the gold market is poised to begin a major rally.

Our short run position on the gold market has been:
1 ) Sustained EMU related selling has continued to cap the market. We hold to
this position despite growing comments to the contrary. As long as this
persists gold will trade in a $290-$315 range.
2 ) Even though the funds have ample room to add to their shorts, we doubt they
will do so sufficiently to take the market to its prior lows. Speculator and
producer sentiment has improved and France, Germany and Italy may be placing
pressure on any selling European central banks to not "trash" the gold price.
Therefore, the impetus needed to take the market to its prior lows should not
3 ) Comex open interest patterns suggest a large buyer has entered the market
below $300.
We concluded from the above that the gold market may well bottom in the high
$290's and rally back to $315.
Since then we have had the following inputs:
1 ) Funds have continued to sell, presumably adding to their shorts.
2 ) Good support persists in the high $290's , probably from producer buybacks
3 ) The Australian producers may have hedged 100 tonnes on a net basis in Q198.
That is more than we expected, and suggests producer hedging has been greater
than we thought.
4 ) At a J. Aron conference in New York, Mr. Terry Smeeton has said:
"ECB approval is going to be needed to allow individual European central banks
to sell any more of their gold from January 1, 1999, but even before then I
think it is improbable that we will see any more European Central Bank sales
this year, because of the risks to EMU this would entail." This comment
suggests that, if there has been undisclosed EMU related official selling, it
has ended around May 1 or will end imminently.
Smeeton's comments suggest a possible end at hand to the price resistance in
the gold market. Several formerly bearish dealers have turned positive; this
suggests the same. This would explain producer buybacks below $300, since the
largest producers would be informed of an end to official supplies by their
bullion bankers. The odds are increasing that the market will find support at
current levels, will rally, and may take out resistance on the next rally and
go to new highs.

What if there have been no undisclosed EMU related official sales?
Surprisingly, this points to a conclusion similar to the one expressed above.
We can explain the bear market of 1997 without such EMU related selling,
though it is a bit of a stretch. We estimate the deficit in the gold market
last year was 1600 tonnes. We can construct the following supplies that led
to that deficit:
1. Half the 299 tonne Belgian sale occurred late last year. Of this 150
tonnes, one hundred tonnes went into the market. This plus all recorded
official purchases and sales to date put net official sales at roughly 300
tonnes in 1997.
2. Net producer hedging was 600 tonnes. This is slightly above what we can
total up from the various broker surveys of producer hedging. Most of these
surveys of producer hedging miss a few producers who may hedge.
3. Net speculator short sales were 500 tonnes. ( Peter Munk has argued that
such sales were a major contributor to the 1997 bear market ) .
4. End use physical demand rose by more than 10% last year. Total inventories
of fabricators, wholesalers and retailers were two times sales or 8000 tonnes
at year end 1997. One quarter of this was financed by gold loans.
Inventories grew 10% with sales. This implies 200 tonnes of borrowed gold by
commercials. ( These inventory dynamics are explained in detail in The Gold
Book Annual. )
Total Official Supplies
Net Official Sales 300
Producer hedging 600
Net Spec Shorts 500
Commercial Borrowings 200
Total 1600
Overall, this proposed composition to 1997's official flows is a bit of a
stretch; the last three items all look a bit high. The data would make more
sense if there was an additional 200-400 tonnes of official sales last year.
Perhaps GFMS is right that the deficit in the gold market was 1000 tonnes or
so, not 1600 tonnes, but, as we explain at length in The Gold Book Annual, we
doubt this.
It is possible that there were other undisclosed official sales in 1997; for
example we have heard that distressed Asian central banks sold undisclosed
accumulated gold positions in the second half of last year. We understand
that GFMS still believes that there were several hundred tonnes of official
sales in 1997 that have not yet been disclosed, but that the major EU
countries were not involved.
Let's assume that the above composition of supplies crushed the gold price in
1997. What has happened in 1998? First, perhaps 100 tonnes of the Belgian
sale went into the market in early 1998. Second, there was 250 tonnes of
Korean dishoarding in the first quarter. Lastly, reports from Australia now
suggest there may have been 100 tonnes of hedging by Australia's producers.
If so, it is possible that hedges and buybacks by producers in the rest of the
world may have been offsetting, resulting in net producer hedging globally of
100 tonnes. That comes to 450 tonnes of such supplies in the first quarter,
which would explain a still deeply depressed gold price, even with some net
fund buying.

April and May are more difficult to explain. It is possible that it takes a
month or two for the sustained physical supplies of 1997 and early 1998 to be
absorbed. If this is so, the gold market met resistance in April on scale up
producer selling and a short run abatement in physical demand. It has
recently fallen on spec liquidation and renewed shorting. If the EMU related
selling ( e.g. Belgium ) and Asian liquidation ( e.g. Korea ) is over ( as we
believe ) , the gold market is poised to begin a major rally.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:48 - ID#286230)
Re: EURO and US$
What is the currently accepted gold backing for the US$?

(Thu May 14 1998 11:49 - ID#269409)
@ RJ
One week you're bailing from the forum and a couple weeks later you're sponsoring it! Kitco is a mistress with some allure, in spite of her temper tantrums, is she not?

A thanks that you took the time and effort to help sponsor this place, that all can enjoy. Excellent!

(Thu May 14 1998 11:50 - ID#210163)
a trade
For what it is worth I just bought ABX and PDG with a stop on ABX at 20.875 and PDG at 13.625.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:51 - ID#225273)
Canadian Comeuppance
The last two mining investment conferences I have attended ( Toronto and Montreal ) featured the coming exploration play in South Voisey's Bay, Labrador.
Several of the Canadian newsletter writers were featuring these companies, not because they had any metal of value, but because "the exploration season would bring great investment interest to these stocks."
( In other words, a bunch of suckers would buy them despite the fact that the project had little merit and these guys wanted to take advantage of the stupidity of the many. )
In fact, just Tuesday, a "gold-stock specialist" from Spokane called and told me he was putting people into Donner Minerals to take advantage of the South Voisey's Bay area play.
Well, things haven't quite worked out the way these fellows planned.
I see that Donner is down about C$.80 for the week, from C$3.00 to C$2.20.
Northern Abitibi is following hard on its heels.
I'm sure Pallum and the rest of the South Voisey's Bay boys are sinking as well.
You know, it's hard enough to pick an exploration company that has good prospects to find a minable deposit. This tactic of trying to play "the greater fool theory" can be very costly at times.
And you know what the event was that triggered the declines in these South Voisey's Bay stocks: the announcement that field work was beginning.
Evidently, there were more fools hoping that other fools would come blindly into the play, than there were fools who are blindly coming into it.
Oh Well.

The Preacher

(Thu May 14 1998 11:51 - ID#317193)
Gold Report
ASB vs. NAB. LGB, the market going down is completely different than the current market. On the way down the paper shorts could easily assure worthless options and contracts. You just keep selling naked and overwhelm the longs with no risk.

When the market turned after January you have naked shorts selling under spot $300. Problem now is to sell naked even more to manipulate spot down, again. However, in a rising market as opposed to a falling market this does not work if the longs hold steady. Sometime the shorts will have to cover which was never required before gold started to rise from it's January bottom.

That is why I say this market is NAB. It is merely a question of time before the real money folks decide to play the long side of the game. This is the mirror image of the opportunity present on the slide down. The key is that this opportunity exists. It will be taken advantage of, the question is when.

This market is NAB- not in the sense of ANOTHER, but in the sense of the opportunity. IMHO


John Disney__A
(Thu May 14 1998 11:51 - ID#24135)
The press here is FREE..
its also a little free with the facts.
Rsa NEWSPapers..
Remember how winnie mandela with her millions of
followers were going to take over the ANC and drive
out the Whites. Some misguided person picked that up
from the press here.
Well Winnie had to fight off the Sheriff a few days
ago who had come to take away her furniture for a bad
debt of $10,000. She also owes the ANC a lot of money
for unauthorized trips. She is broke. The press here
keeps her alive. Maybe they get a kickback from
foreign papers for writing this kind of stuff.

(Thu May 14 1998 11:52 - ID#284255)
Global Market Watch

Lots of red and crash watch's amongst the;
1.World Share Markets
2.World Bond Markets
3.World Foreign Exchanges
4.World Metals Markets
5.World Energy Markets
6.World Agricultural Markets

(Thu May 14 1998 11:54 - ID#225273)
Thanks for telling us that, xau5. I'll keep an eye on your trade and see how you do. I hope you double or triple your money.

The Preacher

(Thu May 14 1998 11:56 - ID#228100)
JTF - Y2K Experience
Very interesting! Sounds like more than just an embedded chip problem.

Replacing the chips ( hardware ) is going to be relatively simple. What's going to be a nightmare is all of the software for your credit card transactions. There are chips and separate software within the restaurant ( Point-of-Sale ) , more at the restaurant's corporate office, the restaurant's bank, the credit card clearing house, the credit card company...

Dont forget the chips and software required to process the restaurants payroll, orders for food and supplies.... And were just talking restaurants here, which are fairly simple businesses compared to banks and manufacturing operations....

(Thu May 14 1998 11:58 - ID#269409)
@ Tyoung
See how semantics can change the meaning of the same phrase? When you said "This market is NAB- not in the sense of ANOTHER, but in the sense of the opportunity. IMHO"......

You hit the nail on the head as to why we may be talking apples and oranges. Since ANOTHER postulated that after March, the market would be trading in a $320 to $360 range, after the, big buyers moved in through BIS and LBMA ( Oil money no doubt ) , and then from there the market would go to infinite heights "by year end"..... and stated that this market was therefore "Not as before"......

My "ASB" is simply a restatement of the opinion that ANOTHER was quite grossly incorrect.... ( and there's a fair chance he's been quiet lately because he's still laughing too hard to speak, having so sucessfully duped so many Kitcoites! )

Pssst , EB, can I borrow that flak jacket?

(Thu May 14 1998 12:01 - ID#284255)
Indonesia is in a really bad way.
The TV here is full of it.
Jakarta has fires burning in lots of places.
Smoke, rocks, tear gas, rioting, looting and real bullets.

Suddenly they have lost their tourist appeal.
Lots more to come I think.
The pot is starting to boil over.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:03 - ID#317193)
You don't need a flack jacket on my account. I'll judge ANOTHER next January but you know my THOUGHTS anyway. My NAB is based on my meaning, not his.


(Thu May 14 1998 12:03 - ID#194311)
Commodities options
anybody know where ( in US ) I can get commodity option trades for less than $70 roundtrip trade? would be good.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:03 - ID#25171)
Reports of 20 dead in INDONESIA.
The implications for the POG are difficult to evaluate as it might be slightly bearish short term but it is certainly bullish on a long term basis.
Indonesian debt could disrupt the financial system.It is precisely the reason why the IMF intervened.It is going to be difficult to give money to a junta / nepotist system which kills students in the streets.Hence, big provisions for banks, big flows of refugees in MALAYSIA , scared investors in ASIA , collapse of KOREA and JAPAN.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:03 - ID#270315)
Did you see that? Silver dropped like a rock to $5.00 and then immediately bounced back up to $5.61. Major Volatility.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:04 - ID#340459)
Riots continue in Jakarta, 20 shot dead. 8 Palestinians shot by Israelis from a group protesting
50 years. Palestinians are seething again..

(Thu May 14 1998 12:05 - ID#433172)
Just read your 11:07 post and I just have to reply.

Most if not all readers of Kitco share your view of gold, and probably have lost a little. I'm new to this and have already lost a bit. It's O.K.,if I'd have got in sooner I would have lost a lot more.

The difference between life and death could be something to eat after whatever Tsunami impends, if any. The ability to move is more important but thats another consideration. Hard red winter wheat in plastic pails and a hand grinder tucked in the corner of the basement, keeps indefinitly. A very small investment and I guarantee you will be and feel more secure. Like all such moves tho, you must do it, not just think about it.
Wheat has represented wealth as long or longer than gold and could be a better investment by far. Go Wheat, er, golden wheat.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:07 - ID#269409)
I wasn't expecting flak from a level headed sort like you Tom, it's the ANOTHER cultists I'm worried about!

(Thu May 14 1998 12:08 - ID#284255)
Year2000 - embedded chips - What are your thoughts on this article?
Chips Older Than 3 Years Are Almost Impossible to Replace

This letter came from a mainframe programmer. I shall respect his desire for anonymity, although there is nothing mysterious about his information. His message: forget about replacing bad chips that operate systems unless they are relatively new chips.

I keep thinking about oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and electrical power systems. Are they all run by new, compliant chips? Nobody who is in a position to know is public about this information -- not on the Web, anyway. I won't bet my life on old chips. But hundreds of millions of people are unknowingly betting their lives on old chips.

Not everyone can get out at the top of a market. A few can. Maybe.
* * * * * * * * * * *
As someone who has programmed chips, and replaced chips in embedded devices, I can tell you from actual experience, that reprogramming and replacing chips older than 3 years will be almost an impossibility.

Here's the problem . . .

First, the chip design business is highly competitive, and chips have a techical lifespan of just few years. When these chips are superseded by better, faster chips, the old ones are no longer manufactured. In the case of EPROMs ( these are programmable chips ) , if you can't find a pin compatible chip for the chip that needs to be replaced, you most likely have to discard the entire device. Older chips have little market value, and are almost impossible to come by. The only ones I know of are the ones pulled from junk boards ( and these aren't too reliable. )

Second, even if you can find the chip, you still have to write the new code for the chip ( and that code has to be compatible with all the other code in all the other chips in the same device ) , and once that code has been written, it must be compiled before it can be programmed into the chip. Compiling the code means you must find a compiler for the chip, the compiler must be compatible with the version of the chip you are using, and the compiler must not have it's own inherent y2k flaws.

Unforunately, finding these older chip compilers is getting difficult, especially in the case of chip specific compilers ( which most are ) . If the chip is rare, the compiler is ever rarer - and you usually have to find a version that is compatible with the chip release.

If the compiler is very old, it is likely that it has inherent y2k flaws in the machine language ( i.e. the binary date field will most likely by mm/dd/yy instead of mm/dd/yyyy. )

And, finally, even if you can find the chips and locate the correct compilers, you've still got to find someone who can still program in the language of the compiler. In the computer business, finding someone willing to code chips in an ancient chip-specific language is going to be exceedingly difficult. Most people who used to do this have gone on to bigger and better things. Few would be interested in going back to the highly technical coding requirements of chip programming. ( I know I wouldn't. )

Most chips are not socketed onto circuit boards. This means the chips must be desoldered, and new one soldered back in ( without damaging the board in the process. ) The manufacturers did not intend most of these chips to be removed, and in some cases included devices that would disable the entire board if specific eprom chips were removed. ( They didn't want competitors removing the chips, and downloading the programs so they could create their own products. )

Anyone who suggests the problem is a matter of just removing the old chips and putting new ones in, obviously has never tried to do it himself. It would be easier to remove spots from a cow and replace them with new ones. ( Of course it would probably kill the cow in the process. )

(Thu May 14 1998 12:09 - ID#22956)
You don't need the've got big brass 'ones'. ;- ) protect mine


go Plat! Got Plat!

get it? got it. good.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:09 - ID#57232)
Indonesia news this AM

sharefin: Please note that the wealthy family members of Suharto are now targets. Hope your son is safe. Looks like things are getting worse. 'Worst riots in 30 years, Djakarta in shambles'. We all saw this coming nearly a month ago. It is especially disturbing to me when you consider that Indonesia has 200 million people -- about the same size population wise as the USA.

Any visible wealth in Indonesia is a target now, as the 'workers' are retalitating against the 'acquisitors'. It is just a matter of time before the 'workers' choose new leaders ( 'warriors' ) , and the age -old cycle of wealth transfer is begun again. It seems that the 'acquisitors' never learn that reducing the majority of the population to extreme poverty is destabiliizing. That 'silent majority' as it was once called will put up with the wealth extraction process only so long, and then they will rebell.

The US middle class is not so far behind, despite the fact that things still seem pretty rosy to the average American. I guess both spouses working, many with two jobs to maintain current standard of living is ok. It is amazing what you can do with the wealth extraction process if you 'cook the frog' slowly enough.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:12 - ID#66136)
midas & sequin Time is finally in our favor. If the game plan does not fall in place
in the next 18 months then reformulate. If Y2K is a fiz and markets continue to rumble we can reach conclusions that seem without basis now. Many well established producers currently project real value in both NA & RSA.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:15 - ID#238422)
Try Lind-Waldock in Chicago, they are the biggest
guys in this business and you will have PC access
along with the live broker.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:18 - ID#269409)
Clinton...demonstrating his military genious once again
Our draft dodging, lying, sleazeball in chief, managed today to once again totally embarass his fellow Americans who voted him to power.

Giving a 50 yr. anniversary speech commemeorating the West Berlin airlift, and the pilots who saved that bit of civilization during the cold war ( with 277,000 flights dropping food and suppies ) ...CLitton introduced one of the most prolific pilots, "Gail Halvorsen" explaining what a heroic pilot "SHE" was!!!

Apparently, Clitton is incapable, not only of understanding that a little briefing might be in order, on matters where he ignorant, and that "Gail" was at one time a commonly used name for both sexes....but more importantly. neither he, nor his brilliant staff, seem to comprehend that the bomber pilots of WW2 were NEVER female in gender. Great mastery of military history once again Commander CLitton...thanks for making us feel warm and secure in your ability to "Lead the troops"......

( Where's good ole general Patton when you need him? )

(Thu May 14 1998 12:19 - ID#25171)
@ George
I had definetely planned on water ,powder milk, beans and canned food,
shotguns and a few rounds , fuel, bicycles , warm clothes etc..
I will add wheat and seeds.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:27 - ID#7568)

Any of the big discount futures trading places should be able to do the job. Lind-Waldock is pretty cheap, something like 25$ a round turn on futures. I don't know the options commissions but they are probably reasonably priced.

Not knowing how disciplined you are, you might want to consider only sending enough money to cover the cost of the options and no more. This will keep you from becoming a futures trader, something that will do your blood pressure no good, regardless of your level of success.

If you go down this path I can get you levels from the floor so that you will know whether you are paying a reasonable price. Good luck.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:27 - ID#284255)
Hopefully he is alright but I think he should get home quick.

Today OZ news stated that Indonesia's problems were worse for OZ than the Vietnam war.

Not good and expected to worsen.
Talk of martial law.

You have an email incoming.

If that previous report on chips is half true
Expect total chaos come Y2k.

GOld to the moon - soon.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:30 - ID#269409)
White's ruling over yellow today
Silver up 1%, Platinum up 2%, Palladium up 8%..... Having gone "out on a limb" last week by calling for an entry point into silver ( long term of COURSE! ) let me go FURTHER out on the limb and opine that the action today, indicates that we have seen the bottom.... The next waves will be in the opposite direction, Elliot or no Elliot ( with all due respect to APH )

Note to Mike Sheller, I like your concept of SSC, as a non expiring silver option. Got a nice "fill" yesterday, at 1.00...I consider it as close to a "sure thing" as one can have in the mining shares. Did you see the volume in SSC yesterday? Well over 6 million....People are waking up out there....

(Thu May 14 1998 12:33 - ID#284255)
LGB - re satellites
Have you heard any 'inhouse' comments regarding Y2k?
Will it effect the reliability of the satellite systems?
Does your co have a Y2k policy regarding talking about the subject?

It seems as though it would be a bit hard trying to fix them up there from down here.

And if the satellites go down - so does much more.

Thanks in advance.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:33 - ID#22956)
Well.....if you want to call it that. Check this out.

go to daily silver July....look down at bottom of screen at RSI-9 ( day ) .....when that puppy gets in the 20's and below ( 19% yesterday ) then we will ( more than likely ) see some changes.....hint-hint. And look at where it touched.......Jan lows ( ? ) , nice looking support, EH? Check it out. Experiment with it......get giggy with it........have fun and DO YOUR HOMEWORK ( ! ) . This whole game is a tricky bidness......uh huh. Keep adding tools to your 'tool box' and pretty soon things start to fall in place........ohmy.

DID WE HIT ( short term ) BOTTOM??!? I just don't know.......... consult the chicken bones.....and buy more plat.....


(Thu May 14 1998 12:35 - ID#287277)
SCMP, May 14, 1998
Surplus rise seen testing US trade ties
Japan's current account surplus surged in the year to March to a level analysts said would further strain ties with the United States, its key trading partner. [No more dollars, please?]

SIA poised for Airbus deal
The Singapore Airlines ( SIA ) board is expected tomorrow to approve an order for 10 new-style, ultra long-range aircraft from Airbus Industrie worth US$1.5 billion. [Well, Boing's having production line problems anyway...]

South Korea
Half of bad loans may be written off
Bad and doubtful loans extended by all South Korean financial units
to firms amount to 120 trillion won ( about HK$667.43 billion ) , and half of them might have to be written off, President Kim Dae-jung said yesterday. [But this will not--of course--touch US banks]

Bad day for Dr. Pangloss...

(Thu May 14 1998 12:35 - ID#66136)
PREACHER) Laugh when the promoters push Voisey's Bay having reviewed
all the grief the gov't of Newfoundland and the native people have given Inco. Its becomming enviormentalist heven.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:39 - ID#340459)
Jakarta, Lynch Soros first before Suharto.., The blood sucking scum that was featured on Time Cover
last under Banner letters "World's Greatest Philanthropist"

Mr. Soros Indonesians have no food now and raging, What Global Philanthrophy you look for ??

(Thu May 14 1998 12:40 - ID#269409)
@ DA
Thanks for the info. DA, I appreciate it greatly. I'll give them a call and get some info. Now I know that not many traders likes to give advice on things like strike price, and expiration...BUT....if I phrase the question this way?

Suppose you were a regular shmoe, bullish on Silver, had decided to make a small and fairly conservative call options play with risk capital you are prepared to lose 100% of, and you are shopping at the great Option mall..... In those circumstances, do you have any idea what strike price and expiration date you would choose? ( Realizing of course in this hypothetical that I'm not asking for advice or a call on silver's future direction! )

(Thu May 14 1998 12:40 - ID#273227)
silver thoughts
The last week or two everyeone has been watching and commenting on the silver action. I think the key to the puzzle hasn't been talked about. It's the commercials - Kodak and the boys. APH told us about the historical seasonal buying that normally occurs during the first two weeks of May. Seasonal buying is usually commercials. Sofar, that buying hasn't happened. Why? When will it? The last major price rise occurred when someone ( WB ) took delievery. Until the delieveries start again the shorts rule the market IMO. The problem I see is time, options expire. We need to know when the big users of silver are taking delievery.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:40 - ID#210235)
@European markets are a wreck today
Russia leading the way down. Any big news from there heading our way? India solidly UP.

Aside from the white metals, what markets are in ascendance today? Does anyone have a one-look commodity link like this market page I post?

(Thu May 14 1998 12:48 - ID#284255)
This site has good charts - short term.
Links at the bottom for longer term charts.
I think they update the charts daily.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:50 - ID#25171)
SOROS's quantum fund has bought 1 billion US dollars of 6 months 145 $calls Yen puts today, trying to capitalise on ASIAN troubles.
Starve them , let them riot, make your bet ? Mister SOROS YES ?

(Thu May 14 1998 12:51 - ID#269409)
@ Sharefin..Y2K and Comm satellites
Scuttlebutt here is that Y2K has been factored into the operations software already for all major programs flying ( or just being put up such as Globalstar ) ...thus the sattelites themselves should not be affected......

however, as far as our "in house" databases for accounting, material tracking, reliability and engineering data, and such.....I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel on whether or not they'll get confused on the infamous date in question! ( Not that the dang databases work reliably now.... ) We're pretty much a "paperless" operation, so we could be bogged down fairly well internally if our internal software has troubles.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:52 - ID#284255)
This site will do the Asian sector.
They now have one year charts as well as intraday charts.
You just have to remove the b from beagle.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:54 - ID#273227)
sharefin - embedded chips
Sharefin - I have some first hand knowledge of this subject. I worked at Fisher-Rosemount Control Systems from '94-'96. They are the biggest fish in the large scale control systems industry. They were very aware of Y2K problems while I was there. I am very confident FR control systems will not fail.

In regards to your article - I believe you get what you pay for. Alot of that article could happen. But the high-end systems/companies are prepared - that's what you pay for.

As for you query about satilites - Iridium birds will have no problems. They have internal clocks on a different time, ours is called Iridium time. The potential of problems on the ground is the same as every other industry. Workstations, networks, printers, PCs - they all are part of the system.

(Thu May 14 1998 12:59 - ID#410198)
SEQUIN, was your adventure into the big city?

(Thu May 14 1998 13:02 - ID#284255)
It's just that I've seen a few reports lately
That underlines the risks of some satellites failing.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:07 - ID#287277)
Thursday May 14 1998
Indonesia:Deutsche bank leads moves to evacuate
Updated at 7.20pm:
Deutsche Bank AG shut branches in Indonesia and BankAmerica Corp and others began moving employees out of the country as riots swept the
capital for a third day. Full Story

SCMP AsianCrisis page is doing a good job of updating breaking
news. You may wish to bookmark it? {:- )

(Thu May 14 1998 13:09 - ID#286279)
ICQ will work very well with Windows 3.1x, I am sure of it.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:10 - ID#7568)

The strategy I like the best in this market is on the opposite end of the spectrum from the 'conservative' side. The real 'value' that I see in the market is in the low delta stuff, or pretty far out of the money ( 1$ or more ?? ) items. The time frame is more difficult to guess at, but here are some thoughts.

If you are going to buy a way out of the money calls with not a whole lot of time remaining, something really good is going to have to happen quickly or you are going to lose 100%. In this environment, the event which is going to occur is the short covering by the big funds and perhaps even their reestablishment of long positions although the latter is probably not required for success.

If the market rallies to the $6 dollar level, the focus will very rapidly turn towards seeking out the stops. In chaos speak, they will become an attractor. Given how the market worked to get these guys out of their longs and ultimately into their shorts, against the consortium ( or conspiratorially perhaps with their best wishes ) the action in the other direction should be even easier.

If the stops are somewhere in the 625 - 650 level and they are hit, you can be pretty sure we will see 7.00 almost instantly. Volatility will explode and calls will be very rich indeed.

The choice really comes down to the September or December calls. The Septembers are the more aggressive of the choice because you pay less time premium, so the same money buys you more calls. One way to look at it would be to play the Sept's if your looking for the short covering and the Dec if you'll wait for the complete reversal from full short to full long.

The reason that I think the way out of the moneys are a good buy is because the event in question has a reasonable chance of occuring but the ticket has a very large payout associated with it. Its kind of like pulling to an inside straight, when the pot gives you enormous odds. A low probability event, but if the payoff is disproportately high, worth the play.

P.S. I don't think this is anywhere near a 1 in 12 shot as the above example implies. It might be as good as 1 in 3.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:15 - ID#194311)
sharefin...real-time control y2k
I have been wondering about this issue for sometime now as i programmed PLC ( programmable logic controllers ) in industry for 4 years '89-93. These are the devices that look after fail safe operations in mission critical systems, e.g. oil-rig shutdown systems, nuclear power plants, oil-gas holding facilities. My job was on-site commissioning and start of these systems and at the time they were a boon to these industries doing away with miles of wiring and tons of unreliable relays.
After we had finished and were satisfied that all the safety tests had been completed and the plant operated safely in a dangerous situation it was almost impossible to "open up" the lid on these things. There were many layers of paper work just to open up the cabinet they are housed in let alone plug in a programming tool to make software changes...this would require committee meetings.
Anyway the point being I don't remember the actual assembly code for performing plant functions as being date-sensitive HOWEVER the operating system running the asseembly ( actually ladder-logic ) was date sensitive. So my thinking is that the systems will probably work fine as long as they are not required to be reboot at anytime. You see with the multiple levels of power system protection most of these systems have been on-line since start-up so have never required reboot. I think that the Y2K issue will haunt these systems for years, as long as the system keeps running there will be no problem, although they do interface more with higher-level machines now they used to so this may well induce separate problems. But if for any reason in the future they need rebooting or maintenance shutdown then I fully ecpect control system failures.

Remember all major industries Oil and Gas rigs, terminals, refineries, chemical plants and nuclear power plants and nuclear fuel refineries absolutely rely on these PLC safety systems to function. If these systems are thought to be any way vulnerable the plants will be SHUTDOWN by law.

Think about it.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:18 - ID#269409)
@ D.A.
I truly appreciate that last post. You're speaking my language DA, as I'm an avid poker player at medium stakes here in the CA card rooms! ( Most people who don't play poker have been led to believe you "never" draw to an inside straight...they of course discount the extremely important conceot of "pot odds", a concept you obviously understand you play? )

Amyway, I'll certainly weigh and ponder these thoughts and try and determine just how agressive I might want to be. In my view, it might be better to take a portion of my "risk" capital allocation, rather than all of it...and make a very agressive play every few months when conditions are ripe ( as they seem to be now ) and then wait for the "big one" that pays off.

Thanks again....

(Thu May 14 1998 13:20 - ID#316232)
herb drink info
DISNEY, VRONSKY, DWARF,.. send me your latest email address and I will send info you asked for last weekend on herbal drink.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:20 - ID#284235)
my THOUGHT'S on India's nuke testing.
To all: Can you picture the following scenario - wires coming from deep underground, running to a control bunker, attached to an old-fashioned detonator box, and an operator pushing down on the handle of the plunger?

No, I can't either. However, I can visualize a modern control room, filled with computers and monitors. Hey people, do you suppose that Y2K could have any connection to those five nuclear explosions, at this time?

(Thu May 14 1998 13:22 - ID#269409)
Well, of course I can't speak for Hughes, Lockheed - Martin, et al! ( Lockheed Martin had yet another failure of their anti missile/missile program yesterday with a booster failure...friends at L/M tell me that I should jump ship and join them over there...I think not! )

(Thu May 14 1998 13:23 - ID#22956)
Not that I give advice......nor was I asked......nor can I stay silent......

If *I* were bullish on silver and *I* played the options gig........

I would first find some options pages:>

( overpriced vs. underpriced ) great page here.

options in July are VERY expensive....uh huh.

Now.....I would look to September ( Dec is good too ) because July only has less than 4 weeks to expiry........

go to bohl....

outright purchases are more risky and you are looking for a BIGGER jump in price.......good but not great. Don't go for the homerun ( unless you're McGwire ) .....try hitting some singles and doubles, etc.

Calls: depending on amount of risk.....I usually don't risk more than 500 per trade..... ( small fish I am ) .

650 strike @ 9.5 cents ...$50.00/ct = $475.00 plus commishy

675 strike @ 7.0 cents ...$50.00/ct = $350.00 etc.

You can do some spreads ( my favs ) closer-to-the-money calls and sell slightly less closer-to-money calls. This limits your $$ but Silver doesn't have to move as high to make some decent *cake*.

buy 6000 call @ 18.8 cts

sell 675 @ 7.0 cts

total = 11.8 or $590.00 plus ( two ) commishies

Total potential is 75 cts or 75 x 50 = $3,750.00 ( not bad ) and silver won't have to move as high as with buying out-o-money calls.......take baby steps......YES. or do one or two strikes less........ buy 6250 sell 7000 or something as D.A. ( choice of words critical here ) *suggested*.....not that you should hold him responsible or that he really suggested a buttload of Sep and Dec out-o-money calls ( 7.00 dollar range ) and *cap* or sell half when/if they double. Selling half is a favorite of Nick@C and mine because it pays for the trade and ya got no worries MATE! And ys start watching pure profit.......ohmy....uh huh.....OK......YES ( ! ) ....

.......good luck. I was just *scratching* out some #'s here. DO YOU OWN HOMEWORK.

*this is NOT a recommendation*.....for all boneheads who would think that it ain't ( ! ) do my OWN homework

uyerandsellerofcallsandputs...uh huh.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:24 - ID#286279)

Hey Dude, I can dig man, like wow, totally awsum!

(Thu May 14 1998 13:25 - ID#269409)
@ EB
You da man! Thanks! All interested parties will benefit greatly from your resources.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:25 - ID#335184)
DA and All,S.O.S. !
What is the best URL to use to keep up with these type option plays ? I have been unable also to find one that tracks S&P leaps. Do you have to buy a real time subscription service to get these ?
What is the best printed source ?
Thanks for the favor of a reply.



(Thu May 14 1998 13:26 - ID#286279)
a duh
Am I a dweeb or what? Should be "I can dig it man"

(Thu May 14 1998 13:27 - ID#280215)
LGB - Options

Lind-Waldock options $35 per round turn. This is the highest price and will usually be what most will pay. However, if you buy large numbers of options and/or those closer to expiration, you get discounts. Good luck!

(Thu May 14 1998 13:27 - ID#316232)
LGB brings up a good point. I believe that the art and skill of poker, mostly mental, is highly related to short term investing and the art and science of trading. It pays to know thyself and poker certainly helps to examine your mental processes, particularly the prospect of losing. If you worry too much, you can't play worth a damn. If you don't care at all, then you quickly become broke.

Somehow I can see how LGB might be good at poker.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:28 - ID#269409)
@ EB...Oops, correction
I almost forgot my grammar is under constant scrutiny here. Scratch that "You da man" and insert "You are the gentleman of the day"

(Thu May 14 1998 13:33 - ID#284255)
You bring great clarity to the question.

I have been seeing reports regarding embedded chips in the industry's that you mention.
'One' chip on an oil rig that was being Y2k checked,
Shut down the whole rig platform.
It was a 'hydrogen sensor' chip
And malfunctioned.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:35 - ID#22956)
oh yeah....almost forgot

have a profit # in mind BEFORE you enter that trade and when it gets profit reaches 75% of that # then *HEAVILY* consider EXITING your

with my spread the potential is 75cts or $3,750......when it reaches 57cts then consider yourself succesful and gets tougher and tougher to do the higher and higher it goes. And if you exit your trade and it goes higher yet.......don't beat yourself up. Concentrate on the fact the you made a *VERY* succesful and rare trade and pat yourself on the back and have a coldy....or something.

Trades can go against you FAST.......especially this here Silver stuff, EH????!?????!?? always have profit point in mind.


(Thu May 14 1998 13:40 - ID#341206)
option contracts
kiwi, try Alaron trading for contracts. They charge approx. $32.00 round trip if you ask them nicely.

(Thu May 14 1998 13:44 - ID#333126)
EB -- thanks for the option info links
i'm probably not gonna start trading silver options anytime real soon, but the links you mentioned are kewl ( might start watching them once a day or so... )

thanks. :- )

(Thu May 14 1998 13:46 - ID#25171)
The folks at the numismatic dealership were incredibly unpolite and unwilling to discuss prices.As I have a strong accent they might have sought I was a tourist or some shady competitor trying to get unfair advantage.
Well , anyway they won't get my money.
Thanks for asking

(Thu May 14 1998 13:49 - ID#317193)
EB=Wise words
EB, well said on the profit point. I got greedy on my gold contracts and left a whole bunch on the table. Got out about even after the drop in spot to around $307. Should have taken the money off the table or a least some of it. Instead I was adding contracts. DAHHH

Did take a bunch off the table with the gold mining shares, however. Amazing how I keep having to be re-educated.

One more bounce down, just a little, before silver contracts look appealing? We'll see.


(Thu May 14 1998 13:58 - ID#170211)
price and time right on !!!
Lets see what sort of rally we get here.Hope it shows some guts.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:02 - ID#410198) what foreign accent do you have..... Texan :)

(Thu May 14 1998 14:07 - ID#252150)
LGB@If the dumb aide who provided info to Clinton's speechwriter had spelled
the male "Gale" properly, Clinton probably would have clued in. They are truly a hopeless bunch of jerks.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:11 - ID#267344)
Silver and Palladium
Silver - Does anyone know where I can find a reliable and current silver graph?
Palladium ( my two cents ) - Do not buy the Physical! I never thought I would say this about any precious metal, but this is true for Palladium. If you can find anyone who will buy physical Palladium for spot than you are a better trader than I. Private investors do not know enough about the metal to desire it. The vast majority of the time you will have to sell it to the big companies like Jonson Mathey, etc. They will not buy it unless you are selling it for a huge dicount off current prices. In other words, the spread is HUGE! If you want to trade Palladium, stick with the paper trade - I would assert the same for Rhodium, but I don't know much about it. If you want physical Palladium, you should have a better reason to buy it than to trade for profit. For the physical trader, stick with Silver, Gold, and Platinum.
- c

(Thu May 14 1998 14:14 - ID#254269)
EB: Thanks for your exit strategy. It is helping me comes to grips with something
I'm looking at. Wise Words.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:15 - ID#31868)
CNBC "Fear and mayhem spark stock market downturn in Indionesia."
This was actually said today, what planet do these people broadcast from? It really is pathetic.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:17 - ID#411259)
..... Clone .....

I buy palladium hallmark bars - JM or Englehard

Pay a few buck below spot, I think

But you are right

Platinum is much more liquid


(Thu May 14 1998 14:18 - ID#258142)
LGB, sorry to intervene, I will be glad, if my 5 cents will be useful.
First of all, it is always compromise between caution and greed. Even when you ( or me, or anyone else ) realize possibility of 100% loss ( when direction is wrong and you for some reason did not manage to get out in time ) , it is still plenty of space to make decision about the risk, you will to take. If you want to take high risk, and you are ( almost ) sure about direction and think, that underlying value is going to move very soon ( in 1-2 weeks, or even days ) , the right thing to do is to buy closest out-of-the-money options ( silver calls will be 5.75 ) with expiration in next month, or, maybe month after. This is very risky position, probability to loose all is high, but in case id you was right with your decision, you can double or triple ( or even more ) your money in a couple of days. From this point there are two ways to reduce risk. One - extend lifetime of options you buy - if do it now - to autumn or even winter. Longer time - less risk - less gain - higher contract price. Other possibility - reduce strike ( if it is calls ) to at-the-money ( 5.50 for silver now ) - they are more expensive, but also more save. Very conservative position is to by in-the-money options ( like 5.25 ) , expensive, but if something goes wrong - no trouble with liquidation - there are still buyers around for your contracts. So, it take as given, that silver will go up soon and removing extremes, lets put it this way:
1. Risky position: expiration July, strike 5.75
2. Medium: expiration September or October, strike 5.75 or 5.50
3. Conservative: expiration in December, strike 5.25 or 5.50.
In all cases, if amount of money is fixed, more risky position - higher number of contracts - more possible profit. A remark about deep out-of-the money options. They looks cheep and attractive. Personally, I was several time in this trap - when nothing is really happening it goes, even in right direction, but slowly -they are getting older and cheaper every week.
In all cases, set stop levels on both sides, like 30% loss and 50% gain or any other reasonable figures. You do not have to wait expiration anyway. If you made right decision, and making 50% on invested capital, no matter what charts are saying - sell it, you made a good business and let others take more chances.
Sorry if it sounds like teaching in school, there was no such intention.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:31 - ID#25171)
Nice rally on the close. GOLD up .3 after having been down 3.3$

(Thu May 14 1998 14:31 - ID#390415)
@the beautiful Southwest humidity 9%
Seem that Gold is finishing strong daily, whereas most of the past year it has seemed to me ( unscientific analysis ) that it has been taking a hit in the East Coast afternoon.

With the cautious and disciplined realism of a goldbug, I will interpret this as a good sign.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:32 - ID#286230)
Anyone know how much gold there is backing each US$?

(Thu May 14 1998 14:35 - ID#317193)
Paper Gold price
Those on the short side of the paper gold trade are being educated this week on how far the paper price can be driven down in a market that has bottomed and is going higher. Gold has bounced two days in a row off of $295. I expect another run tomorrow and if there is a bounce at $295 again I'm back into my gold stocks.

Also a run over spot $300 without any spike down to $295 is all bullish. The education continues. Yes?

Tom bbml

(Thu May 14 1998 14:36 - ID#347235)
@ Selby
Zilch,Nada,None,Nul,Non, Enough said?

(Thu May 14 1998 14:36 - ID#31868)
In watching the trades go off in various mining shares today it still seems to me
that the mining shares will not get whacked anywhere near the way general equities will, and that is if they get whacked at all and do not go up.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:39 - ID#36156)
Midas - Methinks you are one happy puppy.
Date: Thu May 14 1998 11:37

Midas__A ( It will make my day if the close is positive.. ) ID#340459:

You spooked 'em, you did!

HenryD - Go Gold

(Thu May 14 1998 14:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Selby -- None. Our $ is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. I.E. a confidence game.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:43 - ID#25171)
Out of the money calls SEP or DEC are a better bet than call spreads.
If you buy a call spread and want to take profit before expiration of your options , you will have to sell back the long leg and buy back the short one. Even if you call spread is in the money ( id est the spot price is above your lower strike or even both strikes , the market makers will 1 ) slaughter you on the bid /ask spread 2 ) if silver moves up strongly it is likely that the implied volatility in the higher strike will go up more than for the lower strike and it is the higher spread that you need to buy back3 ) if you spend the same amount of premium to buy a simple naked call with a higher strike than your call spread you will still make more money than with a call spread.However, if the move in silver occurs late in the life of the options then the last point is not true anymore.

(Thu May 14 1998 14:43 - ID#335379)
Silver action
Hello anyone:
Why did silver do a yo-yo $4.60 ?
Missed it this morning. could have bought more at that price.
was to sleppy from lurking last night.


(Thu May 14 1998 14:55 - ID#359316)
The Big Bubba probably thinks Gil Favor rode side saddle.
More embarassing than "Ich bin ein Hamburger" = I am a German Sausage?

(Thu May 14 1998 15:18 - ID#426220)

Selby: I do not know how many greenbacks are out there, but sopposedly the Fed should have 262 million ounces of gold stashed away between FRB of NY and Fort Knox

(Thu May 14 1998 15:23 - ID#341189)
Tolerant 1
I'm inclined to agree with you about the PM shares being less vulnerable than the general market. They are near their base now as opposed to 1987 for example when they were soaring. One senario I'm thinking could come to pass, though, is for the PM shares to join the market mania before it's all over. Then, I think they would definely be vulnerable with all the rest.

(Thu May 14 1998 15:25 - ID#267344)
Desparately seeking an updated Silver graph!!
Tuesday I bought Silver at $5.75
Wednesday I bought Silver at $5.45
Today I bought Silver at $5.55
However I missed the lows over the past two days. Silver has been down below $5.00. If there was a reliable Silver graph around, I might have been more aware of the recent huge fluxuations of the spot price for Silver. I am satisfied with the dirt-cheap prices I bought at, but I definately could have made better buys. My problem is that I rely too heavily on one web page to get all my information. That web page consistantly does not work properly when I need it the most. So I ask again, does anyone know of another web page that has real time graphs for PM spot prices? Please post!!
- c

(Thu May 14 1998 15:28 - ID#286230)
Vronsky: 262 million oz of gold is large amount until you divide it by the as yet unknown number of US$ that are around. If this gets pushed too far I'm sure the questions of what constitutes the Total number of US$ will raise its head and getting lost in the details is a possibility.

I take it that until someone posts one of the possible answers that assuming less than 1% of a US$ is backed by gold is a reasonable guess. If so it is a long way from the proposed 25-30% for the EURO.

(Thu May 14 1998 15:35 - ID#347235)
@ Vronsky
Has any body SEEN the gold at Ft. Knox lately? Or at the Fed Res Bank in NY? I think that is Nazi gold that needs to be returned does it not? And I think the Coward Erect has probably diverted it to the DNC anyway. HAR HAR

(Thu May 14 1998 15:41 - ID#39971)
GoldenBergen--err--Bugger--err Bug--ALERT!

--Higher Book Value of BBK Dlr Reserves No Signal on Forex Expectations

FRANKFURT ( MktNews ) - Reserves transferred to the European Central Bank by the

Bundesbank and other national central banks of EMU member states will likely be mainly in the

form of U.S. dollars, Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said Thursday.

In addition, however, the ECB's reserves of 50 billion euro could include small amounts of yen

and gold, Tietmeyer said, without providing details.

Dollars would play the "dominant" role in the ECB's reserves, Tietmeyer said.

Commenting on the Bundesbank's revaluation of its dollar reserves ( to DM1.5396 from

DM1.3620 ) , Tietmeyer said that the new dollar book rate was "appropriate" and left a sufficient

gap to the dollar's current market value.

Tietmeyer denied that the new, higher book value of its dollar reserves revealed anything about

the German central bank's expectations about future foreign-exchange developments.

"We are not giving an indication of the future development of the dollar exchange rate," he said.

"We are only saying that this is an appropriate level ( for valuation of dollar reserves ) , taking into

account our whole balance ( sheet ) ."

Tietmeyer also confirmed that the Bundesbank had not undertaken a revaluation of its gold

reserves. These are still valued at a price of DM144 per troy ounce.


Anyone want to try the math on this one?Looks good for gold from both the

potential dollar evaluation and the likelyhood of gold being part of

the ECB.Could we be looking at a 50/25/25 USD/AU/YEN scenario?Hmmmmmmmmm


Nice turnaround today.DOW looks toppy.Yes?

PS:LGB:Thanks for your " clarification ".


(Thu May 14 1998 15:43 - ID#252127)
If your question is answered fairly, the Europeans might practice the same stupidity?

I wonder if military hardware can be counted as gold backing?
How about jaw boning, it and the overvalued stock market probably can also be counted.

(Thu May 14 1998 15:43 - ID#153102)
Is US gold in the possession of US Treasury or Federal Reserve ?
Fort Knox is not part of the Federal Reserve System, I don't think. Just exactly whose asset is it ?

(Thu May 14 1998 15:53 - ID#341189)
11,048 million is always listed on the Federal Reserve Data Bank each week as "Gold stock". It appears they think the gold is their's.

(Thu May 14 1998 15:53 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Euro; Just another debt-based currency backed by other debt-based currencies. Yawn...

(Thu May 14 1998 15:58 - ID#230216)
It is my belief that you must fork out some cashy for real time data....mostly. ( although CME now has real time data-feed on S&P's etc. ) Here is a delayed page that I had posted this am. It is also my understanding that ( accurate/reliable ) SPOT prices are somewhat elusive from the WEB. No offense Bart or Vronsky for that matter.......but your pages aren't always reliable/accurate.

Try this Cloner: you think that 5.75 silver is cheap?? hmmmmmmm... ponder the clonage-bugage-dudage-statementage


(Thu May 14 1998 15:58 - ID#210163)
xau trade
If you use todays lows on the xau as a stop I think today is a good buying opportunity for the stocks. Good luck

(Thu May 14 1998 15:59 - ID#228100)
Sharefin / LGB - Embedded Chips
The BIGGEST Y2K problems are in the various assortments of financial software, not the actual chips. True, embedded chips are just about impossible to replace, since theyre soldered to the board. But 99% of them are arent used for date functions. For example, you wont have any problems with your automobile.

Most systems are isolated, and may require some old-fashioned creativity with a Y2K failure. If the elevator in your office building wont work, some creative person can set the date back to 1997 and theyll work just fine. If your postage machine doesnt work? Until you get is fixed, send someone to the post office and buy $10,000 worth of stamps. Then call a temp agency and get some folks for lickin and stickin!

Embedded chips WILL be a problem for telephone systems and industrial plants. Most businesses have telephone systems that, currently, will not work after December 1999. Change-out a few parts ( another $2,000-$3,000 ) and the telephone problems are fixed. ( Note that most companies have NOT yet prepared an inventory and checked their telephone systems yet!! )

Industrial ( especially Nuclear ) plants will be hit hard with the embedded chip issue. ( I havent spoken with anyone in the power industry in several years. ) 99% of the PLC chips do not have date functions. Many have timing functions, but will work just fine regardless of the date. But you cant operate nuke plants knowing that the systems are only 99% okay. Someone will have to assess the functions for each PLC. Worst case scenario: the electrical supply in the USA will drop by ~10% for a year or two. We wont like it, but we can live with it.

The BIG Y2K problems are in financial systems. JTFs credit card problem is a typical problem that youll see in the next 12-18 months, only on a much larger scale. JTFs transaction went thru at least five or six different systems in an approval process. Instead of credit card approvals, youll have problems with electronic transfers and checks for taxes, payroll, and other transactions. I am absolutely certain that some banks, insurance companies, and creditors will loose some of your account information.

I hope that the FDIC has some people warming-up in the old bullpen.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:01 - ID#252127)
USAGOLD update, sources say 27.5%????

(Thu May 14 1998 16:02 - ID#258142)
@clone, 15:25
I have checked my some of sources for silver - it was not below 5.00 recently at least during European trading time. You may check it here, it is reliable source for Amsterdam stock exchange:
This page gives you access to data for last 5 days. Today is on other page, but no 5.00 there too.
I can also give reference for COMEX silver chart, but not sure, how good is it:
Comments are bearish.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:05 - ID#153102)
"Gold Stock" sounds like a derivative to me. I think they have paper gold, an I.O.U. from US Treasury.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:05 - ID#210235)
My spelling is probably kaput but JFK's gaffe at the Berlin Wall was "Ich bin ein Berliner!", which means, in the vernacular, I am a jelly donut!" Nevertheless, he was applauded mightily. I doubt that the feelings of warmth and solidarity exist for Clinton these days.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:11 - ID#341189)
Well, if you're correct, the treasury has them by the b**ls. Can you make gold soup with Gold Stock?

(Thu May 14 1998 16:13 - ID#426220)

mozel ( @Vronsky ) : I do NOT know for certain - just like no one is certain who the original stock holders of the Fed were. However, I believe US gold is accounted for in the FRB's Balance Sheet. Frankly, I have never seen a Balance Sheet of the US Treasury. However, public records indicate it is the Fed that has physical possession of the yellow - most of which is in vaults beneath the FRB in NY.

Nonetheless, hard pressed for a decision right now, my WAG would be that the US Treasury is the "book" owner. But since the American citizens are supposedly owners of properties of the US Governement, an idea has occurred to me.

Since Messieurs Rubin and Greenspan would have us all believe that gold is a useless relic, an interesting idea occurs to me. Let's start a national petition to distribute all of the people's gold held in custody by the Fed. This would entitle every man, woman and child about one ounce of the shiny. Thus relieving Rubin, Greenspan and cohorts the daily worry that the price of the MIdas metal might rise... then they might have sufficient time to do their jobs in a more efficient manner than heretofore. ( :- ) )

(Thu May 14 1998 16:14 - ID#347235)
Quote applicable to the Coward Erect
Ich bin ein Unrerechmassigkeit Unwissenheit. Believe me they would applaud that and he wouldn't know the difference!! Sorry my puter can't furnish umlaut's in the proper places you will have to supply your own!

(Thu May 14 1998 16:19 - ID#269409)
Gloom and Doom Squared....
As I paruse todays news, it occurs to me that the world is not exactly the happy stable peaceful place we perceive it to be, as we sit back in our safe little enclaves. I realize this is no great revelation to those here who constantly chide me for my naivete in world affairs...BUT...Just today we have stories on;

* The statistical possibilities of a comet or Asteroid ending life as we know it ( And an admonishment by the Govt. for amateur astronomers to keep any discovery of such objects, a secret from the public lest panic ensue )

* Indonesian bloody riots, worst strife in decades in worlds 4th most populous country.

* Pakistan saber rattling and planning nuclear tests in response to Indias nuclear tests, new nuclear crises brewing.

* North Korea making noises about aggression against the South as possible future for resolving the issues.

* SE Asian economic woes, South Korean corporate loan defaults, stock market hitting new lows there, Japanese economic crises, unexpectedly falling corporate profits in U.S. ( witness H.P. )

* Israeli attacks on terrorist positions, killing 8 and wounding 22, biggest such air strike in 2 years, coupled with gunning down of PLO protesters in the streets. PLO and Israeli leaders both moving closer to hard line positions. ( Dont worry though, Madeline What am I doing here? Albright is on the job chattin with Netanyahu today )

* Population forecast just released shows world population to hit 6 billion in the year 2000.... famines and strife and ecological catastrophe predicted in many regions as a result

* Russian soldiers mutiny and kill another officer as military breakdown in Russia continues. Former Republics and Russia itself now have Nukes in the hands of very demoralized and unhappy military.

* European Union girding for G8 summit to finalize details of agreements that will ultimately lead them to fulfill ( editorial comment here ) prophecies both biblical and extrabiblical of a Revived Roman Empire power block in the region which will ultimately precipitate Armageddon and the end of this current age.

* And of course the usual plethora of Y2K stories, and worsening ecological conditions, which may ultimately destroy our way of life.

Now Kitcoites, you know Im not a Gloom and Doomer by nature.... but these world conditions cant exactly be ignored. It would appear that every major population center, save the one I'm sittin in, are "on the verge".

IMHO, we have a calm brewing before a terrible storm. U.S. dollars, bonds, Gold coins, silver coins....none of these will save us from what's to come, though they may help us get through hard times in an economic sense.

No matter how well weve done in the past few years, no matter how well we fare economically by our financial strategies in the coming bad times....we would all do well to occasionally get aways back from the trees, and look at the whole forest.

Spiritual renewal, loyalties and commitment to family, relationships, ethics, integrity, personal values.... These will be more precious in the days ahead, than even Silver or Gold.

If it seems condescending for a sharp tongued Kitco brat to be making such statements, let me just say.... those who have the greatest sin, are in greatest need of the savior, yes?. I place myself in that category. Recognizing our weakness and vulnerabilities, is the first step toward change and the building of character to sustain us through the truly tough times ahead, is it not? One of my goals, and one that Im painfully reminded of while thoughtfully parusing the news of today.

Apologies to all for the cold water... ( RJ..did I leave any "verilys" out? ) but if any forum can handle Gloom and Doom its this one. Back to my irrascable self now.....

(Thu May 14 1998 16:26 - ID#254269)
Drudge Report says Starr wants Oval Office security videos ;

(Thu May 14 1998 16:29 - ID#347235)
Cowerd Erect Quote
To make it even better add Unehelich in front of the other two.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:29 - ID#222243)
Peruse your irascible self. ( I agree, generally, by the way. )

(Thu May 14 1998 16:31 - ID#269409)
James, Triomnev, Retired... Gale/Gail
You know, I hate to follow my last post with crude levity, BUT... when I told my former girlfriend, at a younger time in my life, that the morning's fishing expedition, successfully taking place over a nice reef, was terminated in the afternoon due to "Gail blowing me onshore" ...I got slapped! You'd think Clinton would have had such an experience, and learned from it, yes?

(Thu May 14 1998 16:32 - ID#347235)
@ Leaky Gum Boots
For once you say many things that make sense to me, but I wouldn't worry to much about what Maddy alldyke will tell Bibi, he will most likely tell her to kiss his putz and do what is right for Isreal anyway.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:33 - ID#359316)
ein Berliner... Thanks for posting the correction. Alas, I had already had a glass of German lager with my dinner and it completely scrambled my quotation memory. I knew it was something like that. What is there to say about gold? Either the mother of all buying opportunities is coming in tandem with global meltdown, or the lucky ones are those that are holding the physical. Maybe both?

(Thu May 14 1998 16:34 - ID#210235)
You forgot to end your cheerful post with "Have a nice day". Isn't that how it's done?

(Thu May 14 1998 16:36 - ID#153102)
American citizens have no rights in the property held in the name of the United States Government. Neither have stockholders in IBM rights in the property held in the name of IBM. So, save your petition paper.

I wonder what the Fort Knox gold was. Gold from Japan and other conquered places probably.

FDR ordered gold to be deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks.
Then, he gave an I.O.U. to them and used the gold as redeemable backing for the international trade greenback. I think the gold is in the national debt somewhere. The US also deposited gold with IMF at its founding.

I think the US Government owes an answer to the people as to just exactly how much gold is owed by this government to whom. That's the sort of question Senators and Representatives should be able to answer since Congress has the power to tax, borrow, and spend and the duty to keep the books.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:38 - ID#252150)
The Gang That Could'nt Shoot Straight--During the last 3 days the USG reported that
their new cruise missiles are much less accurate than necessary.
They had no idea that India was going to test nukes.
Their leader made a major PR gaffe re: Gail/Gale.

Almost daily they reveal themselves to be a bunch of incompetent twits, and yet the POG languishes below $300. Are we missing something???

(Thu May 14 1998 16:41 - ID#254269)
Independent Counsel undermined by Justice Department
according to show to air on PBS next Tuesday;

(Thu May 14 1998 16:42 - ID#244242)
Couldn't have said it better myself... ( Now if only I could pay off this $36,000 debt in 12 months or less... )

(Thu May 14 1998 16:44 - ID#210235)
We lost any hope of successful negotiations with Israel when B. N. was last in Washington and the hopelessly incompetant jerks in the White House failed to put him up in Blair House. The Blair House, near the White House is where we routinely put up visiting heads of state. He had to make last-minute arrangements to get a room at the Mayflower Hotel! Nice way to treat a staunch ally. Then with Hillary's power-grabbing socialist speech about a Palestinian State ( Didn't Bill say that we bought 2 for the price of 1 when we elected him? ) . . . well, Ms. Albright ( another misnomer ) hasn't got a prayer.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:45 - ID#252150)
LBG@Reminds me of a party I went to a long time ago. Most of the guys were Sailors .
I was in the Air Force & wore a T-shirt that said "Sailors are'nt the only ones who get blown ashore". My girlfriend had a good sense of ha-ha.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:45 - ID#57232)
Gloom and Doom revisited!
LGB: This is a surprise! Can you tell me why your bad news list is worse than the usual gloom and doom info? By the way you left out the potential nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Bullish for gold ( in a way ) if that happened, but catastrophic for the world. If that happened, all that gold in India might not be too useful -- if it is too hot ( radioactive ) to hold, or liquified.

On a more serious light, I do agree with Larryn that you might very well be good at gambling. I am not a gambler, so I am at a disadvantage trading options. I am better by far with intermediate to long term investment -- made 10% since January with mutual funds : gold, computer, energy and defense, with 50% or more in cash at any one time. My success with options has been dismal until relatively recently. Learning from the Kitco traders has been instrumental. You as a gambler are probably way ahead of me. All you need to know is where to trade, and what the rules are. All I can add to the expert advice given today is that options are best to purchase ( if at all possible ) just before a big move. Also if you are trading more than several times a year on the same 'commodity', you are doing it wrong -- unless you are a pro, and your overhead is very low.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:46 - ID#269409)
@ Carl...the Gold IS theirs!
Carl, You said "Date: Thu May 14 1998 15:53 Carl ( Mozel ) ID#341189:
11,048 million is always listed on the Federal Reserve Data Bank each week as "Gold stock". It appears they think he gold is their's."

Well but of course it's thiers! We hear all the time that every single dollar they don't confiscate from us in taxes is a "subsidy" for the rich.... so obviously all the "dollars" we earn are theirs as well. And as the Beatle's said in reference to the tax man taking 19 of each 20 dollars we earn......

"If 5% appears to small.... ( Tax Maaa-aaan )
"Be thankful we don't take it all" ( Tax Maaaa-aan )

"Cause I'm the Tax man.....
" Yeah yeah I'm the tax maaa aaan"

"And you're working for no one...but me" ( Tax man )

( Hot guitar riff..... )

(Thu May 14 1998 16:48 - ID#359316)
Year 2000 approaching Captain!
Lest you all become too complacent, let's ponder a minute on those embedded functions- service, maintenance, warranty. Certain products
with embedded processors have date settings that are used to maintain
regular service records. This date is also used when producing
normal output. I am thinking of a test instrument here, but who knows,
could be a power station controller...

It is a fact that instrumentation manufacturers DO use dates for such purposes, and some are NOT Y2K compliant, and you CAN NOT CHANGE THE DATE for testing because the date is fixed as an anti-tamper measure ( in certain cases ) . Since the date can be used for time stamping in normal use, who is to say whether a 2000 roll-over might not cause some secondary software failure?

I have also heard of cars with "electronic brain" control systems having Y2K problems. Do you even know if there is a hidden date setting within the controller placed there as a security feature, accessible only to the service engineer's system? Does even the service engineer know what data is transferred between the service system and the user's system?

Year 2000- it's a good argument for holding real money.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:49 - ID#270247)

You're absolutly right. Lots of things to be concerned about in the news, but what is today's BIGGEST story. You guessed it...Seinfeld's last show!!! Even the other networks have been pumping it up.

People just want to stick their heads in the sand and pretend everythings going to be alright.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:50 - ID#347235)
@ Prommy
You are so right! Msssss AllDYKE is far above her level of intelligence in the job the Coward Erect put her in. If he needed a woman SecState to be PC Jean Kirkpatrick would have done well, but she of course is a Republican . Oh well it cant last forever.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:54 - ID#270247)
Selby and the Gold Backed Dollar

There is NO gold backing the US Dollar. Yes, there is gold sitting in Fort Knox and on the FRB's book. But you certainly can't trade your paper money in for any guaranteed percentage of gold. At least as far as I know. I suppose you could try asking someone at the Fed to turn your $20 Bill into gold, but I don't think they would take very kindly to the suggestion.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:55 - ID#287312)
JTF: Options
I consider Dec. 2000 put options to be a gamble with the best odds I've ever seen. Think about it.

(Thu May 14 1998 16:59 - ID#410198)
Federal Judge says it's OK for the FBI to blow away unarmed citizens

(Thu May 14 1998 17:00 - ID#252150)
Jed@Pay off your debts???Now, that would be damned unpatriotic.
The banks need your interest to keep the game going. Have'nt you learned anything from your leaders? Why don't you just max everything out, convert to cash, send it all offshore & then declare bankruptcy?

(Thu May 14 1998 17:08 - ID#244418)
Non-date-sensitive devices can go down 1/1/2000

After researching the problem further, it's definitely possible for non-compliant firmware to trash a system despite the fact that none of the applications reference the date.

Basically, when 99 rolls to 100, the operating system may or may not use an extra byte for the ASCII or EPCDIC representation of 00, thinking it needs to output 100.

If it does, the overwrite may OR may not trash a critical function. Even if the overwrite doesn't occur, the system may take an exception indicating that a third byte is needed to represent 100 -- which may shut the system down. So without figuring out exactly what a given system will do, the outcome is a pure crap shoot.

A colleague of mine who has written many, many such date applications in the span of a 30 year career ( he said he could do that coding in his sleep ) , has no idea what his code will do. When he coded, it wasn't that he thought 2000 was far away -- actually, it didn't even occur to him to think about output storage in the 99-to-100 transition.

( above from the silicon investor board on embedded chip problem ) :

(Thu May 14 1998 17:09 - ID#210235)
@Let's impose sanctions on India
Yeah, sounds good. Only 3700 hi tech engineers in Silicon Valley today who are Indian nationals. Who cares? We did alright after we sent home the Iranians, didn't we? This is the Clinton White House. Consequences? What are consequences? Our biggest companies have offices and development centers in India? Who cares? Let's shut 'em down. India's middle class is only 200 million strong. We don't need their trade. Remember Smoot Hawley? Who cares? ( Strains of "Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone" bad sax playing at the Inaugural Ball ... )

Yes, Virginia, Dick Morris and George Stephanopolous WERE their best statesmen.

(Thu May 14 1998 17:20 - ID#238295)
NJ: Thanks for posting those Veneroso faxes! Vital information.

What kind of people are making out like bandits in today's economy while so many are sweating bullets to barely get by?

I had lunch today with an 85 year old retired New York City teacher and his wife -- long tome friends of the family. They wisely choose a pension option that ties their pension payments to the stock market. Consequently, their pension income today is considerably larger than the income they received when working. These people just love BC and can't believe how well they are doing. They live like royalty and just bought a new Lincoln town car. Remeber they are 85 years old and have not worked in 20 years.

As John Kennedy once said -- life is unfair.

Gusto Oro
(Thu May 14 1998 17:20 - ID#430260)
Hey I missed the "Gail" thing. What stupid thing did Clinton say now? --AG

(Thu May 14 1998 17:23 - ID#286230)
US$ and Gold
KJR: I wasn't trying to get into the internal debate about the ability to trade US$ for gold from the US Government. I doubt if anyone cares much outside the US. I was/am trying to get a fix on the relative merits of the EURO and the US$ about the turn of the century. If the EURO turns up with about 30% of its nominal value backed by gold then nobody will care if you can get any gold for the US$ if the amount--at best--is about 1 % or less--no contest on this dimension.

(Thu May 14 1998 17:23 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.70 The 50 day moving average is 29.55

(Thu May 14 1998 17:27 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .280 The 50 day moving average is .268

(Thu May 14 1998 17:28 - ID#269409)
@ JTF ....Nukes & Poker & stuff
What! My post wasn't Gloomy & Doomy enough for ya? You said "the way you left out the potential nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan."

Au contrair JTF, read my post again, I had that in there in one o' my little asterisks... Now I did leave out Saddan Hussein and Iran and such though!

As to being a gambler...not sure I'm a decent gambler but I think I'm a pretty fair poker player! Very little "gambling" involved in it. The same players take home the profit money about 80% of the time. ( And of course conversely, there's a group of "Break even" players and an even larger group of consistent "Losers" ) It's all probabilities, strategy ( which must greatly adapt to each game/player ) , statistics, practice, computer simulation, lot's of reading, an ability to read people, and "Heuvos" ( or at least the ability to simulate Huevos! ) Course luck does play a role

(Thu May 14 1998 17:29 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 53.36

(Thu May 14 1998 17:31 - ID#57232)
Dec 31,1999
Suspicious: Excellent point! I assume you mean the sp-500. Most of my 'funny money' market puts expire in December. I should get some more that overlap 2yk, especially in foreign markets, such as Mexico,etc. Just as our US markets are more resilient -- so far anyway -- I think that will apply to y2k as well.

Of course, if all the markets melt down, even the options trading would cease too! Hopefully not for more than a few days.

One more thing we should think about with y2k -- and that is the human factor -- if there is no hard copy of the missing transaction somewhere, it will be as if it never happened. Options trades included.

(Thu May 14 1998 17:31 - ID#267344)
EB, Delphi - ask and ye shall receive, thank you.
EB - I consider silver to be cheap at $8.00 an ounce. I'm in it long term, too ( 5 years, +/- 2 ) . Perhaps you value silver differently than I, but I am satisfied with my purchases. I've been waiting for spot to go under $6.00 to buy.
- c

(Thu May 14 1998 17:31 - ID#267344)
EB, Delphi - ask and ye shall receive, thank you.
EB - I consider silver to be cheap at $8.00 an ounce. I'm in it long term, too ( 5 years, +/- 2 ) . Perhaps you value silver differently than I, but I am satisfied with my purchases. I've been waiting for spot to go under $6.00 to buy.
- c

(Thu May 14 1998 17:37 - ID#43460)
Inflationary or deflationary, true or false? You decide.
I had a long talk today with a contact who regularly buys cigarettes for her husband. Thirdhand ( she said the manager said the wholesaler said ) the story is that estimated cigarette cost for name brands will be on or about US$5 per pack ( NOT Can$! ) by on or around 1/1/99. The story is that each party in the cigarette food chain is going to up their selling cost to accomodate the increased liability. Plus they anticipate new state and federal taxes. Is it true or not? Who knows? Does anybody have anything REAL on this subject?

Take this for what its worth, gossip from the internet. As for gold, IDCIBM. I'm waiting for delivery now on some fractional ounce US coins.

( Disclaimer: My discussion of my own investments and actions and opinions does not constitute investment advice. Anyone thinking it does may line up with their lawyer to kiss my donkey. )

(Thu May 14 1998 17:39 - ID#246224)
Embedded Chip issues
are only part of a very board, woven mesh of interdependencies. Systems feed systems feed systems: power, fuel, food, heat, telecom, datacom, transaction, scheduling, inventory, cascading order entry, suppies, raw materials, markets. Around and around and around it goes. An intricate, pulsating mass of digital virtuality which massages the throughput of our real world.

Break this only in a few places and you will have a cascading 'fission' of failures, just like a nuclear chain reaction. Each component that breaks in turn bumps the systems it feeds. If this cascading effect is simply binary in nature ( each failure only induces failure in 2 other systems ) then we will have 'meltdown' in a matter of hours as this chain reaction feeds upon itself. It does not take much failure to get the ball rolling. And once it rolls there is no stopping it ( ie - how are power plant technicians to fix problems if there is no electricity, or telecom technicians if there is no communications channels open to them, then the cross over problems of power technicians needing to communicate with their colleages at another site yet the telecom lines are dead or telecom techs needing to troubleshoot their boxes, yet the power is out )

There are only two things which can stop this from happening: 1 ) isolate all systems so that they at most can take down less than one other system if they fail ( this must be a systemicly applied ) or 2 ) the failures burn up tightly coupled systems but do not jump into other tightly coupled systems ( ie - a finance sector meltdown does not cause a energy sector meltdown ) .

BTW Generator mfr that supplies telecom and military does typically US$50 million per year just received US$70 million of new orders ( new orders above and beyond their typical contracts, that's completely unexpected demand over and above the US$50 Mln that they do now ) .

But there is no problem ...

(Thu May 14 1998 17:42 - ID#194311)
Interest on debt sucking the life out of little countries
Is this evil? we need to ask?

Poor countries urge G8 to write off debts
Followup-To: biz.clarinet.sample

BIRMINGHAM, England ( Reuters ) - Representatives of
debt-ridden countries Thursday called on world leaders gathering
for a summit here to write off Third World debts, saying they
were the main cause of world poverty.
The group held a news conference in Birmingham's St Philip's
Cathedral to spell out the cost of debt repayments to their
countries and their people.
They urged the leaders of the world's wealthiest nations to
do more to relieve the debt, saying the latest initiative -- a
program to help Heavily Indebted Poor Countries ( HIPC ) -- did
not go far enough.
``We hear that at the highest echelons there is support for
debt relief...from what we can see, what is on offer at the
moment will not even scratch the surface of the problems,'' said
Andrew Simms of the charity Christian Aid, which is holding a
rival ``people's summit'' alongside the Group of Eight big
powers' gathering here in Birmingham.
The Commonwealth, which mainly comprises former British
colonies, also added its voice to calls for the G8 leaders to
speed up and expand debt relief for the world's poorest
In a letter to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who hosts
the annual economic summit of the G8 in Birmingham this weekend,
the Commonwealth Secretary-General, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, said an
unequivocal endorsement by the summit would help to get the HIPC
Initiative implemented quickly.
``There is also a strong case for exploring how the terms of
the HIPC Initiative could be expanded to include internationally
agreed poverty Yolanda Vargas of Bolivia said her country's debt amounted
to $592 for every person and used up 14 percent of the
government's annual budget.
Most of the debt was accrued by the military dictatorships
of the 1970s and the money was used to buy arms from the West to
keep down rebellion.
``We feel it is unjust that we should be paying a debt from
which we have not benefited,'' Vargas said.
Bishop Bernadino Matia Mandlate of Mozambique said debt
repayments cost his country $100 million a year and sucked funds
away from health and education.
Leading nations drew up the HIPC initiative two years ago to
try to relieve the debt burden. It promised debt relief to
governments who implement economic reforms prescribed by the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
What Mandlate and others are calling for is a cancellation
of poor nations' debt by the year 2000.
Christian Aid and other charities are organizing a six-mile
human chain Saturday of at least 40,000 people to surround the
Birmingham conference center where the G8 summit is being held
to try to pressure the leaders to meet their demands.
The Group of Eight comprises Britain, the United States,
Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, France and Russia.
eradication targets,'' Anyaoku wrote.
Representatives from Bolivia, Malawi, Tanzania, Jamaica,
Bangladesh, Mozambique, Nicaragua and Ethiopia described how the
burden of debt was crippling their countries.

Dave in CO
(Thu May 14 1998 17:43 - ID#229103)
Did you receive my email on 5/12?

Steve in TO__A
(Thu May 14 1998 17:46 - ID#209265)
gagnrad - price o' cigarettes
Your friend was probably referring to the ongoing debate in the Senate about whether to raise taxes so that the retail price of a pack of cigarettes goes up to $5. They are well aware that this will create a huge black market, just like it did in Canada before the gov't had to back down.

I happened to hear some Senate testimony by three economists on CNN on the 12th. They all said that $3 - $3.50 a pack is the highest you could take the price without creating an out-of-control black market. They also said that teenagers are the least responsive to price increases and suggested other measures to reduce teenage smoking- like taking away their driver's licences, or refusing to issue them learner's permits if they are caught smoking underage.

We'll see what the Senate ends up doing.

- Steve

(Thu May 14 1998 17:47 - ID#412286)
GO INDIA!!! They like gold and silver too!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 14 1998 17:48 - ID#384350)
History of Banks, continued from 13 may
From Nexus Mag. Aug-Sep 93 ( Vol 2, no 15 ) which was extracted from the book, "Sar Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard K Hoskins. Published by: The Virginia Publishing Co, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA 24505


( In Italics ) "Interest requires a heavy tax so that money will not be hoarded but circulated to pay interest"--Hoskins' 4th law of interest.

Taxes! This was one of the most brilliant inventions of the classical age. This is where "share the wealth" taxes started. While there have always been taxes, the specific reason for these heavy taxes was to milk the rich and start money circulating again. Everyone paid them.* ( see note ) The rich in Athens groaned, but they paid. The rulers spent it as fast as they could get it. It worked. Commerce and trade broke out of stagnation, then blossomed. It required rigidly enforced collections to break loose the tightly held money. No holdouts were allowed since the holdouts plus interest could in time result in owning all the money again through use of the System.

This universal taxation, whose benefits were discovered long ago in Greece, is essential to the usury system. Through the years men have spoken against taxation. Everyone who has paid taxes has wanted to do away with them, but what happens when taxation is abolished? The usury-bankers end up with all the money, and none is left in circulation. The only thing that has kept the usury system operating through the ages is taxation. In spite of its beneficial effects, the biggest and most modern buildings in the blighted debt-ridden downtowns of the world are still banks and insurance companies. Both are active in usury in slightly different ways and have cornered the larger part of the wealth of the world.

People who talk against taxation haven't thought the matter through. The only time heavy taxation is not needed is when there is no usury system.

Author's note to "*" above ( Today, special taxes such as the "inheritance tax" are used to force owners to sell their businesses and land to corporations owned by the international usurers. A businessman may have bought his business for $50,000. He dies and it is valued at a million. The son is often forced to borrow heavily to pay the inheritance tax. When he cannot meet payments, he is foreclosed. This is the only way the usurers could ever hope to capture most family-held property passed down from generation to generation. )

(Thu May 14 1998 17:48 - ID#57232)
Poker is close enough for me!
LGB: It's all about knowing the odds. That's what the likes of EB, Oldman, RJ, APH et. al. do every day. Your posts were great today.

By the way, I think gold/gold stocks will bottom very soon. The best indicator will be a jittery, directionless US equities market, and second best a strong US market rally. The worst indicator for gold will be a deflationary market crash somewhere outside the US, in a country that has gold left to sell. ( Repeat of Oct 97 ) . I think playing the gold market and riding the gold bug Tsunami for the next 2 years or so may be the poker player's game of a lifetime! A few chips in gold bullion for insurance wouldn't hurt a bit. Those virtual chips have a tendency to leave the table in a blinding flash of light.

(Thu May 14 1998 17:49 - ID#238295)
Note the comments re: INVESTMENT DEMAND

Updated Thu May 14 15:42 ET

Full: NY Precious Metals Review: Jun gold up 50c; erases loss

By Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--May 14--COMEX Jun gold futures settled up 50c at $299.70,
erasing all of its earlier fall to a 7-week low of $295.90 with the aid of
dealer buying. Traders said activity was mostly technically-driven, with
investment demand helping gold to recoup its losses. Jly silver settled up
2.7c at $5.560 after rising as far as $5.620, while Jun palladium settled
down $2.40 at $370.25, taking a breather after its breath-taking gains on
* * *
Jun gold futures fell this morning on dealer and trade house selling,
with downward momentum accelerated by the triggering of light sell stops
between $296-298 per ounce. Also, the absence of a large bullion bank,
which has been a heavy buyer of gold in the past few sessions, allowed the
precious metal to slide lower.
Gold Fields Minerals Services' annual report today was also taken as
mildly bearish for the market. The report said that record world gold
supply of 4,254 tonnes was reached in 1997, and pegged Central Bank gold
sales last year at a net 406 tonnes.
The study said that in addition to sales announced by Belgium,
Australia, Argentina, Austria and the Czech Republic, unannounced net sales
amounting to 260 tonnes were conducted by 15 countries. But Gold Fields
also said that record world gold supply in 1997 should not be repeated in
Market players said talk in the report about bank sales and record gold
supplies made investors jittery, although these worries subsided as the day
"There's just so much of this kind of talk right now that everyone is
just waiting for the real thing," said Doris Hildebrandt, a precious metals
dealer with Toronto Dominion Bank in Toronto.
Dealers said gold saw good physical buying interest near the $296
level, but significant selling interest rests near $300.
Silver's activity today was described as technically based. Dealers
said significant selling interest rests near $5.68, which may cap further
"I think we're in store for some pretty tight range trading," said a
Profit-taking was said to bring silver off its highs of the day.
Jun palladium also saw some light profit-taking today following its
mammoth $39.80, or 12%, climb on Wednesday.
The market remains jittery as it awaits word on the possible resumption
of Russian exports of platinum and palladium to the Japanese. There still
has been no further indication that exports will go ahead shortly, but with
such a huge rally Wednesday, the market decided to take a breather before
taking further positions.
Also, some dealers are concerned that the market is setting itself up
for a major collapse if the palladium exports do go ahead later this month
or in June.
"Until we actually see the metal come into the market, we will continue
to see this metal supported," said an analyst here.

--Jun gold ( GCM8 ) at $299.70, up 50c; RANGE: 295.90-299.90
--Jly silver ( SIN8 ) at $5.560, up 2.7c; RANGE: 5.520-5.620
--Jly platinum ( PLN8 ) at $400.60, dn $1.9; RANGE: 399.5-405.0
--Jun palladium ( PAM8 ) at $370.25, dn $2.40; RANGE: 365.0-379.0

Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 298.80-299.30 296.70-297.10 297.60-298.10
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.59-5.62 5.53-5.62 5.50-5.60
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 400.00-402.00 402.50-404.50 400.50-402.50
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 375.00-385.00 385.00-400.00 383.00-393.00


(Thu May 14 1998 17:49 - ID#194311)
yanks shot themselves in the foot free for all right?
US nuclear sanctions could hit Boeing's sale plans in India
NEW DELHI, May 14 ( AFP ) - US nuclear sanctions on India could
dim chances of Boeing Co. bagging a two-billion-dollar deal with the
country's flagship carrier, Indian officials here said Thursday.
The European consortium Airbus Industrie is also in the race to
sell 23 medium-capacity long-range ( MCLR ) aircraft to Air India.
Civil aviation ministry officials said they were studying the
tough sanctions ordered by US President Bill Clinton after India
carried out a series of nuclear tests this week.

(Thu May 14 1998 17:51 - ID#269409)
You almost have me talked into buying a little CDE, HM, and ABX! After all, if Gold stock funds lost 90% in 1997, at what point can the phrase "Buy low-sell high" have more meaning! ( I DID order a few more Gold Saint Gaudens this week, along with the Platinum Eagles... )

(Thu May 14 1998 17:54 - ID#410198)
Guess who has just started talking about Y2K.....Steve Forbes..anot?her member of the VRWC

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 14 1998 17:56 - ID#345321)
Are you surprised?

(Thu May 14 1998 17:58 - ID#153102)
@Yea, Verily
By the law ye are governed.

Trouble is noone knows what the law is. This is no joke. There are tens of millions of words of law and regulation at federal, state, and city and county levels of government. There are thousands of decided cases in the publications of the Court Reporters. Needless to say, the average person can't afford to find the law much less get the law. And needless to say, the Courts hardly function as you might reasonably expect them to function. And the person you pay to be your attorney in Court does not work for you. He works for the court as an officer thereof. He is required to go along to get along.

The average American relies on word of mouth, company communications, and media reports for knowledge of law. He is more ignorant of the law that governs him than was the average Babylonian farmer. Still think modern equals progress ?

Now, the people in government have nothing else to do but study what the law will allow them to do. And apply it. And push the envelope. So, the average person receiving an official contact or communication has no idea of what to do but comply or call a lawyer ( and get the counsel the lawyer thinks the Court will tolerate him giving you ) . So, nearly everyone complies. They assume a government official would not demand something the law did not allow. Wrong. They demand what they think they can get. They have nothing else to do with their day. And they are persistent. If you attempt to resist, you soon learn that, "The evils of tyranny are rarely seen but by those who resist it."

The FDR Socialist Revolution put in motion changes to the basic law, superceding modifications of the traditional common-law where your rights were first secured, which are even now snowballing with ever expanding implications onto the people. The federal government through its fiscal and other agencies is a temple of Baal practicing the sin of usury at home and abroad. But, they want more than payment. They want obedience to regulations over your life and what you think is your property. They have taken English feudal law, called it part of the common-law, and imposed a Babylonian and socialist feudalism on this nation. They will not be satisfied until you apply for permission, wait for approval, follow instructions, and pass their inspection. And pay for all of it out of your pocket. They are practising forfeiture and seizure like the King's men of yore. Begging for liberty and justice will not move their hearts.

Almost every State Constitution prohibits martial law and yet people on this forum routinely use the phrase. If you don't know your rights and how to assert them at law, you might as well not have any. They are not going away. The law is going to be what they make it or what the people make it. They have had all of the input for quite some time now. Affiliate. Divide the labor. Study and counsel together. Or resign yourself to be at some point no better off than a Babylonian farmer or a midieval serf. Whatever happens in the public life of this country in these uncertain times, knowledge never hurts.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:01 - ID#43460)
Prometheus, and all re sanctions on India
IMHO the Indian trade sanctions have more to do with Mr. Clinton's personality flaws and personal weakness than any external situation. Since he must so cravenly seeking affection and respect and is so self centered as to think that the majority are like him ( and since he surrounds himself with similarly flawed individuals ) he naturally assumes that the rest of the world including Indians operate under the same principles. IMHO

What he fails to realize is that he's interfering in the well developed disagreements of nations which have been in conflict for his entire life, altering the regional balance of power/terror and risking much more than he may possibly gain. IMHO

A personally mature way of handling the situation would have been to meet as an adult with the parties involved ( and this includes both representatives of India and Pakistan ) , reenforced his own distance from the affair and NEVER THREATENED ANYTHING. One must contrast his bluster with the humble, self effacing way previous presidents have handled much worse situations. Even the notorious Lyndon Johnson who got us so deeply into the Viet Nam debancle was a better statesman. IMHO

(Thu May 14 1998 18:03 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro
Check the 12:18

(Thu May 14 1998 18:08 - ID#269409)
Overheard ....Clinton/Madeline Albright
Clinton: "Madeline, has anyone ever mistaken you for a man?"

Madeline: "Uh no... has anyone ever mistaken you for one?"

( OK OK only in my fantasy's, I realize that in reality, Albright is WAY too DIM to ever make such an intelligent statement... )

(Thu May 14 1998 18:08 - ID#43460)
SWC chart for today

(Thu May 14 1998 18:13 - ID#269409)
@ Madeline Aldimm
However, like many other useless, politically correct, airhead Clinton appointee's...she's havin a grand ole time jettin around the world first class at taxpayer expense.

"Excuse me Miss, could I have a few more of those yummy free Hors'douverves?"

(Thu May 14 1998 18:20 - ID#254112)
My son was born in Berlin 1984. Two years earlier Larissa came from Washington D.C. over and decided to marry me. Her parents had escaped Stalin's regime in the Ukraine and as it happened, her oldest brother was also born in Berlin 1940, during the first bombattack which the Brits flew against Berlin. So, she and her mother have something important common.
Only, the circumstances, under which Amadeus was born were like heaven, compared with what her mother went through.

It was around this time that I slowly started to understand what Stalin's regime was like. I grew up in former West Germany under the influence of American and British reeducation programs. The term "Nazi" started playing a more important role the longer the distance to WWII grew. Of course, in this world view, there is little room to pay attention to the fact, that Stalin's brother in law, L. M. Kaganovich, had successfully supervised and organized the famine in the Ukraine, which killed between seven and ten million peasants, between 1929 and 1933.

Larissa used to compose melodies for poems which Ukrainian dissidents had written. Through her personal contacts and relatives I learned about the unbelievable suffering which was going on in the Eastern European countries. We in the West didn't learn about these things through the media. I started to study the contemporary history of the Ukraine.

We experienced a happy time in Berlin. But with the wall not yet down and that time, you felt like living on a crowded island. We often escaped to Italy and to Greece and to Munich. You must know, everybody has 30 paid vacation days over there per year.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 14 1998 18:22 - ID#289419)
Sanctions on India
I am all for everyone exposing the president for what he really is, however the sanctions have been imposed on India in accordance with United States law in dealing with other countries regarding nuclear testing. It is not the presidents decision. I believe this was reflected in his statement yesterday.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:25 - ID#269409)
Buffett...not too safe out there
Thursday May 14, 5:43 pm Eastern Time

Buffett says U.S. stock prices need rosy scenerio

NEW YORK, May 14 ( Reuters ) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ( BRKa - news ) , said
in a taped interview released on Thursday that a rosy scenerio was necessary to justify current share prices.

The comments were made on May 8 in an interview taped for television, were released on Thursday and will air on May 16 on
``Adam Smith's Money Game,'' a public television show.

When asked by interviewer Adam Smith if corporate profits could continue to grow at current rates, Buffett said: ``I don't want to
bet on it continuing. But I am saying that if it does continue then stocks are not overvalued, but it takes a rosy scenerio to justify
these prices.''

Buffett said he did not think stock prices had much margin of safety now.

``It leads to caution,'' he said. ``But it doesn't predict a bear market.''

``I don't think there is much of a margin of safey in stock prices right now,'' he said in the interview. ``No, there is not a margin
of safety.''

Buffett also commented on the recent wave of massive merger deals, saying when asked that they were partly driven by the egos
of chief executives.

``It is not fun if you are a CEO to look around and see your competitors or colleagues making deal after deal and being plastered
all over the press and to sit there and say I don't think these deals make sense,'' he said. ``And you have got other constituencies
urging you on.''

When asked about derivatives, Buffett said it would be nearly impossible to regulate them at this point.

``They are here to stay and I think regulation would be almost impossible,'' he said.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:31 - ID#410198)
Mr. Mick....YES I AM......I thought it was just us nuts at Kitco :))

(Thu May 14 1998 18:32 - ID#210235)
@Steve in TO
Your post yesterday was thought-provoking. You know why no one answered you, we have to think it through.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:35 - ID#210235)
Any idea why 950+ million people in India get different treatment than the far fewer in France? What are there, 60 million over there? The law is only selectively applied. There's the problem. It's a big insult.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:36 - ID#194311)
winston...crap shoots...y2k
good point...this is more likely the case, will that extra bit go into a spare memory slot or corrupt a used one...just a crap shoot and who in the heck could say without pulling the whole device to peieces.

This will be the biggest factor for fail-safe safety systems...there can be no unknowns so it must either be tested ( timely of which there isn't a lot ) or replaced.....can't be done for all the world's nuclear, oil-gas, chemical, ships, building fire systems, et cetera, et cetera ..........ohhh Sh*t!

Talk about the bit that broke the camel's back!

(Thu May 14 1998 18:40 - ID#269409)
The One Dollar Bill U.S.
Furthermore, another pet peeve is, how did Madeline Albrite, a relatively recent Clinton appointee who has accomplished virtually nothing, get her portrait on the U.S. dollar bill already? Even those already in circulation?

You don't believe me? Just pull one out a $1.00 and take a look!!

(Thu May 14 1998 18:42 - ID#194311) and justice
we definitely have divergence....
where do place bets on the outcome...
buy gold.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:45 - ID#290118)
WANTED: More International Views of The United States of America
Thanks to any and all of you from outside the United States for helping us see how others see us - regarding our political stupidity, financial and monetary mismanagement, and on the good side our actions and words regarding freedom, etc. Or maybe the inverse of all these. Whatever.
We are too close to the trees to see what is going on.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:52 - ID#287312)
LGB: Buffett & Greenspan
They both choose their words very carefully. I saw a reporter ask Buffet if the stock market was a bubble. His answer was " I wouldn't call it a bubble" Not that it's not a bubble, but he wouldn't call it one. Buffett doesn't want to be the cause of a sell off. He's not through positioning himself yet. Watch what Buffett does not what he says. Bought Silver, sold Mickydee's and U.S.Air and who knows what else. I figure he's buying physical gold also.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:55 - ID#289419)
Agreed! The United States has its favorites and does not always follow the letter of its own written laws. Politics can be a very complicated process and sometimes things are done foe reasons unbeknown to the people. Mostly for the benefit of ones personal political gain and what government thinks is good for the people.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:56 - ID#253153)
Donald--- did the fed added or drained reserves today?, thanks

(Thu May 14 1998 18:58 - ID#270236)
LGB: Wasn't that Tellelujah Bankhead?
See subject.

(Thu May 14 1998 18:59 - ID#254112)
@Prometheus: The Nuclear Power Have and HaveNots
As far as I know, the law on the basis of which the US acts, makes a difference between those countries which are allowed to have, and those which are not allowed to have.

France, U.K., USA, Russia, China ( did I get them all? oh, of course Israel ) those are the privileged ones.

In a way I like that India has the courage to make this trouble. But principally, I think the Have-Nots should give all those who have a hard time. But not by building their own bombs. They should deny them this privilege. But under the present circumstances, I think India acts right.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 14 1998 19:02 - ID#287312)
Bright spot in a dark hour !
I ran in to our county Sherrif today. I've known him for many years, we are both Vietnam Vets. I had the opportunity to ask him privately if the Fed's told him it was time for him to gather all personally owned firearms what would he do. Answer, Burn every firearms record I have and set on my ass. I knew you would like this Squirrel.

(Thu May 14 1998 19:13 - ID#347235)
Funny they feel that way in Alaska too,and Texas,Kansas,Georgia,Florida too many to mention would all do the same

(Thu May 14 1998 19:14 - ID#153102)
@Suspicious @Dark Spot on the Hour
The feds cannot order a Constitutional Officer of a State such as a Sheriff. That was an issue in a recent case out of Arizona. But, police chiefs in citys are another matter. Law-enforcement in this country is federalized, believe it or not. Law-enforcement is a term from Acts of Congress.

Lurker 777
(Thu May 14 1998 19:18 - ID#320226)
Oh where Oh where has aNOTher gone, Oh where Oh where can it be!
another "thoughts" are nowhere to be found! I guess we will wait for his successor. WE all remember BIG TRADER don't we? Come on Guy's someone take over. It's really NOT that hard. How about a contest!

Hear me now, "if gold tries to go lower than US$ $295. the GOLD BUGS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if "Kitco" were to bid for gold!

RJ you can take the camel to water but you cant make ( thats ANOTHER story ) Hmmmm. Platinum is the play and you are the game.

Mozel family and I will share a bunker with you anytime. BE SAFE MY FRIEND!

(Thu May 14 1998 19:18 - ID#269409)
U.S. / India...... Cultural peers?
Sorry to become a patriot again ( my head is spinnin like Linda Blair here ) but to those who insist on lauding India's "right" to develop Nukes, cause after all, they have a society and heritage equally as respectable as the U.S. of A.

I don't personally find a culture based on the "caste" system, which demeamns the majority of the population and demands that they stay impoverished....a society that disrespects women in the extreme as "Unequals" ......a society that allows millions of it's citizens to literally starve or die of disease as it spends it's monies on weapons programs.....a society that reveres cows wanderin around as people starve..........a society threatening to overrun the world with it's ever burgeoning population which it can't feed and clothe....a society that officially allows GROSS child abuse, child enslavement, child labor, and even tacitly approves of child maiming by "owners"......... ( yes yes I know , it's all OUR fault for buying Nike's and soccer balls right??? )

I don't find all that cultural civilization stuff particularly laudable. While we do share some minor ( by comparison ) degree of such problems here in the U.S., I think we've moved quite a bit past India when it comes to civilization, and our approach to humanity.

Now I realize that the U.S. used "Nukes" in WW2, stole the land from the Indians, went to war in Vietnam....and is probably the great Satan that has caused every ill ever conceived ( or unconceived ) by man ) ...

and I also realize I'm blinded by my kneejerk, US centric, unthinking, naive patriotism and all....but I just wanted to mention this "contrary" view for the record.

(Thu May 14 1998 19:23 - ID#347235)
@ Mozel
That may be true, but most of the officers I know would not comply. Also even us law abiding people can still get guns at flea markets gun
shows and yard sales without paperwork, so just give them the ones they KNOW about .

(Thu May 14 1998 19:26 - ID#194311)
LGB...spinning out?
you are just a sane guy in a contrarian forum right?

so who's crazy anymore?

i lost it long ago

and then the lunatics were in charge of the asylum

roll on oblivion

(Thu May 14 1998 19:34 - ID#288295)
deja vu, Mr. Nixon
They might just have it all on tape ! ( ;^ ) You gotta love this...

(Thu May 14 1998 19:35 - ID#269409)
@ Off to Europe and Israel on Bizniss
I will be gone for a time. I promise to find out EXACTLY what percentage of the Euro will be Gold backed before I return, ( in the insider rumors anyway! ) and pass this info. on to Kitcoites when I return.

God bless ye everyone... yes, even YE and YE.... ye 2 mean LGB haters!

Lurker 777
(Thu May 14 1998 19:40 - ID#317247)
Five Year Plan of Handgun Control. Warning No gold topic.

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 14 1998 19:43 - ID#345321)
Robnoel - I was referring to the Lon Hiuruchi case...........
I know we Kitcoites are all nuts, but is it spreading to the federal judiciary?

(Thu May 14 1998 19:47 - ID#153102)
@Age of Control
I see a theme in the news coming to us from different sectors around the world. That theme is loss of control. That's the threat of Y2K, isn't it ? That these computers which control processes, accounts, transactions, balances, transport movement, and all else among the divisions of labor will cease to operate and control reliably. It's also the threat from derivatives, isn't it ? They were invented to manage ( i.e. control ) risk. The threat is that they won't or haven't. It's also the threat from the Indian nuclear news, isn't it ? That the controlling treaty to prevent proliferation of these weapons cannot be enforced, that their distribution and development cannot be controlled.

I could go on.

But, I conclude with gold and its price which have been controlled. This, too, shall pass. It was a function of the plan for global socialism led by the United States as a covert means of retaining hegemony. That plan has failed. For a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the people of the world do not wish to be slaves in usury to the US. Those posts by Gianni were priceless in the moral and historical context which they give. Only by allowing gold to be traded in a freely bid market can the value of all other currencies be truly measured. Nothing less will satisfy nations.

Many things in our non-natural environemt will not be the constants they seem now to be. That's what flux is all about.

(Thu May 14 1998 19:54 - ID#390415)
Nook Lee Yar issues
From CNN:

"Reports have indicated Pakistan, which has never conducted a nuclear test, may be ready to test its nuclear capability as early as this weekend."

Isn't that supposed to raise the price of gold?

(Thu May 14 1998 20:00 - ID#153102)
@Retired_Soldier @Lurker
Federalized means what it means to people in the regular armed forces. Even a non-military like myself knows that people who do not follow orders in federal military service are court martialed - minimum. Even I know about Operation Garden Plot.

Lurker Think out of the box where they will not be thinking or looking.

(Thu May 14 1998 20:01 - ID#280245)
Euro-coin directions?
It would appear that there are French Euro coins ( introduced at
Fayence, remember ) and now there are Italian Euro coins.
If this is indeed the direction, it echos the old Latin
Monetary Union, and the Gold Euro's that have floated in and out of our field of vision may well be a part of the future...

(Thu May 14 1998 20:03 - ID#248180)
@Gail/Gale & the Purvert Slick Willie havin a "Golden Moment"
Hey know old slick willie simply had a little fantacy in his pea brain.
He imagined Gailonika in the "Cockpit" of those old flying machines.

(Thu May 14 1998 20:05 - ID#248180)
@Now not know
( : ) ) )

(Thu May 14 1998 20:08 - ID#248180)
Kaplan Looks at the Future & Sees Nice Things - I like it.

The stock market attempted to rally this morning, encouraged by PPI data indicating that wholesale inflation is creeping back down to an annual level of just above five percent after having been as high as seven percent just one year ago, but a late wave of mutual fund redemptions once again caused the market to end the day with a net loss, with the Dow ending down 10.23 at 1338.32. The broader market showed a brighter picture as advancers edged out decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 9 to 8. "It's hopeless," said one observer, who wished to remain unnamed, "no matter how bullish the economic fundamentals, we still have so much money in mutual funds that we could have net outflows of ten billion dollars a month for the next 15 years and still not completely eliminate the overhang." The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is now 9.63%, the highest level since the Great Depression. In an attempt to stimulate investment in U.S. equities, the President as expected signed new tax legislation reducing the top capital gains rate to 18% regardless of the holding period, though few expected the action to have much effect. "Just another instance of too little, too late--I wouldn't even try to call a bottom here," said another respected analyst. "In spite of the fact that we have the strongest post-recession recovery in U.S. history, I can think of no reason to be invested in U.S. stocks." Bob Gabele of Insider Chronicle noted that although individual investors are bailing out of mutual funds at a record rate, the managers of mutual fund holding companies and top executives at nearly all major brokerages have been recording the greatest concentration of insider buying since the early 1950s. The possibility that this heavy insider buying, which extends across virtually all stock market sectors, could signify an approaching stock market bottom was scoffed at by one veteran NYSE observer. "They just feel they have to make a public display of confidence-nothing more or less. Only an idiot could expect the market to stabilize, much less rally, with the shape it's in." To no one's surprise, this week has seen another 27 U.S. mutual funds announcing their merger or liquidation, bringing the total number of mutual funds to about one quarter of their peak a decade ago.

Precious metals gained once again today, with gold adding $12.10 to $1344.80, silver climbing 37.5 cents to $38.744, platinum soaring $18.60 to $1530.30, and palladium edging up $2.20 to $782.90. Traders attribute the white metals' recent strong rally to surging industrial demand, while the fundamentals for gold remain clearly bullish, say most traders. According to Lipper Analytical Services, the average gold mutual fund has returned 38.3% per year for the past ten years, even with the 2004 crash that saw most gold mining shares drop by 40%-50% in five months. "Obviously, one doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to make money in gold mining-just buy on dips and hold on forever," said the chief analyst at Merrill Lynch Goldman.

Gusto Oro
(Thu May 14 1998 20:11 - ID#377235)
We don't hate you LGB, we just misunderstand you. --AG

(Thu May 14 1998 20:14 - ID#290118)
Suspicious - Yes! Pessimistic/Dangerous Grizzly BEARS - DAMN RIGHT!
Glad to know there is at least one sheriff who would stand up for our liberties. Lets just hope that real patriots like him get enough warning to do something. But like a no-knock drug bust. He may never have a chance - and we, in turn, won't have a chance either - unless we have some decent eyes and ears out there. And that is a crucial role that OLD SOLDIERS and LITTLE OLD LADIES can do for us. Give us enough warning and they'll find empty files, wiped computer disks, and gun barrels pointing at 'em from behind every tree, rock and window! Billy Boy may have sold out our government but he has not sold us out. He can't raise enough GOLD to do the job!

(Thu May 14 1998 20:16 - ID#248180)
Islam to Rule in Indonesia? From Colin's

Hot News
Is there a likelihood of an Islamic fundamentalist opposition taking over in Indonesia? [May. 14]
According to Sandra Nagy, a 1996 graduate of the US Central Coast Chapter of the Naval Intelligence Professionals ( NIP ) , Naval Postgraduate School, the subject is sufficiently interesting to make it the title of a thesis in National Security Affairs- Regional Intelligence: "Islamic Fundamentalism in Indonesia". Unfortunately there is no abstract for this paper.
Member's Thesis Projects

Knowing my luck with web links, the above will probably "mysteriously disappear" in the next few days.

Note carefully that Indonesia has been described as "A state with capacity to affect the regional balance and stability which would damage the US economic or security interests":
( Also says: "INDIA and PAKISTAN...both potentially nuclear powers"- a bit out of date there? )

(Thu May 14 1998 20:19 - ID#153102)
@As Plain As The Nose On Your Face
The Sheriff is a law man of constituted government. He serves lawful process. He has deputies.

Now, consider a police unit. There is a Commander In Chief. There is a Captain. There is a Lieutenant. There is a Sergeant. And there are the officers in the ranks. It's a military structure and a martial law unit.

It's an occupying force right in your town or city. To whom does this occupying force report ? Here is a clue. Who increased the size of that occupying force by 100,000 during his term of office ?

(Thu May 14 1998 20:27 - ID#413109)
LGB or Anyone with his email
Please contact me with info as to how I may contact LGB
Thanks in

(Thu May 14 1998 20:27 - ID#30116)
Oil not going your way? Then try this... Amazing what the big boys can do when they want 'things' to turn out in their favor...

(Thu May 14 1998 20:29 - ID#344239)
Junior here is a good India site

(Thu May 14 1998 20:30 - ID#27341)

(Thu May 14 1998 20:31 - ID#30116)
Klintock hasn't hired 100,000 more COPS... It just makes for a good story on the six o'clock news. It's more accounting gimmickry than anything else. Your other points are well taken though...

(Thu May 14 1998 20:36 - ID#371247)
Short Books
Since it will probably only be a short time until gold rebounds perhaps the following list of books might give us something worthwhile to read in the meantime. Perhaps these books might not be gilded edged or contain the motherlode of metalic wisdom. Nevertheless I post them and bid all happy reading:

The World's Shortest Books...

25. "My Plan To Find The Real Killers" by OJ Simpson

24. "To All The Men I've Loved Before" by Ellen DeGeneres

23. "The Book of Virtues" by Bill Clinton

22. The Difference between Reality and Dilbert

21. Human Rights Advances in China

20. "Things I Wouldn't Do for Money" by Dennis Rodman

19. Al Gore: The Wild Years

18. Amelia Earhart's Guide to the Pacific Ocean

17. America's Most Popular Lawyers

16. Career Opportunities for Liberal Arts Majors

15. Detroit - A Travel Guide

14. Different Ways to Spell "Bob"

13. Dr. Kevorkian's Collection of Motivational Speeches

12. Easy UNIX

11. Ethiopian Tips on World Dominance

10. Everything Men Know About Women

9. Everything Women Know About Men

8. The Engineer's Guide to Fashion

7. George Foreman's Big Book of Baby Names

6. "How to Sustain a Musical Career" by Art Garfunkel

5. Mike Tyson's Guide to Dating Etiquette

4. One Hundred and One Spotted Owl Recipes by the EPA

3. Staple Your Way to Success

2. The Amish Phone Directory

And the #1 World's Shortest Book:

1. French Hospitality

(Thu May 14 1998 20:36 - ID#342315)
A.Goose & SDRer re Veneroso
Veneroso said "The Eurocrats behind EMU are not concerned about convertibility. Some oppose a significant role for gold as an EMU reserve asset like the Dutch and even Bundesbank council member, Ottmar Issing. Others support keeping the current gold reserve position. The latter crowd have two reasons for thei position. First, they have too muchgold to sell; to try to sell it would depress the price and would be tantamount to ' shooting themselves in the foot'. Second , for the French and Germans, their citizens are sceptical of ( oroppose ) EMU and believe gold is an important backing for the currency. In effect, they are afraid to allow the new System of European Central Banks to sell their existing gold reserves because it might undermine popular support for the new Euro."

I had asked him what was the difference between US$ and the Euro where both had gold "backing" and neither had any direct ties to gold-IE any form of convertibility. I have as faithfully as possible typed his answer above. Any questions about authenticity , let me know Comments, Charlie

(Thu May 14 1998 20:36 - ID#30116)
Gold is holding its' own.... For now.

(Thu May 14 1998 20:40 - ID#153102)
I've heard it was not 100,000. How many was it ? And no he didn't personally hire them. He doesn't even directly pay them. And they don't have to tell you the truth about a National Security matter. But, did you ever notice what is on their shoulder patches ? The martial flag of the USG ?

(Thu May 14 1998 20:52 - ID#410215)
..... & .....


Check out the picture of Grant on the new $50.

It is the captain of the Titanic.

It is.

Mozel -

Verily Indeedy!


(Thu May 14 1998 20:53 - ID#26793)
The Fed fooled the experts and drained reserves again!

(Thu May 14 1998 20:54 - ID#57232)
Those 'gold' Euro coins
SDRer: Saw your post about the EURO coins. Saw the French ones demonstrated in CNN while on a trip. My first reaction was: They're gold! Now the US dollar is in trouble! Then I heard that they would not be used publically until 2003 or 2004, and that the coins would be closely guarded until the time of release, due to fears that someone would conterfeit them. Then I immediately knew they would be no threat to the US dollar.

If these coins were really gold coins worth their 'face' value, there would be no fear of counterfeiting. These coins are no better than the planned 'gold' US dollars that are to be minted, IMHO.

Oh well -- I guess we wait for the BIS/China connection to launch a gold-backed currency. Until then, it looks like the EURO will not be much of a threat to the US dollar, or to any other 'fiat' currency. It would have been so easy to mint a 'real' gold EURO, instead of cheapen the concept of gold by simply coating it. Perhaps that is the message the authorities wish to purvey -- that gold is cheap -- using a cheap copy. The EUROpeans are no thus better than the Americans -- so far, anyway.

(Thu May 14 1998 20:58 - ID#26793)
Venezuelan phone company to shut off government phones; bills unpaid

(Thu May 14 1998 21:01 - ID#26793)
Battle Mountain Gold news.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:03 - ID#26793)
Bema Gold news.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:05 - ID#413109)
PROMETHEUS-please contact privately****

(Thu May 14 1998 21:07 - ID#57232)
Fed Drains reserves again! Venzueala
Donald: Hello! I've been in Detroit for the last four days, and catching up. Do you think Japan is still dumping dollars, and the FED is comping up with assets that the Japanese want? I wonder -- what if Japan is refusing to take dollars anymore for their huge trade surplus. If so what are we giving them?

Venezuela: If the phone company is turning off the government phones, I wonder how long it will be before someone else turns of the water and electricity. One shortcoming of privatization -- you must pay your bills. Can't imagine the Venezuela situation will last much longer before there is a market implosion. I doubt they have much gold on board, so we should not need to worry about a gold fire sale this time, unless some other country does so.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:07 - ID#27341)
OCT 27, 1999
The US stock market crash has taken the European markets with it, all Asia now heading for full on depression, expected to spread world wide.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:09 - ID#426265)
goldchart comment from panda-chart.
That was a beautifull chart you were sharing with us. It shows a perfect timing of reversal. Sometimes one might think this to be coincidental, but we have to treat such appearances as ( meant to be ) and act accordingly in a positive way. I cerainly believe that this is a turnaround that we can trust.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:14 - ID#26793)
Platinum, palladium news.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:15 - ID#399119)
@RJ , just catching up, Your generous action deserves kudos.
BRAVO!, Your money ( some of it, anyway ) is now where your mouth is! ALL: any comments on the Fed.Judges ruling tha Lon Horiuchi acted within his official capacity ( so did the camp guards in WWII ) , with his sniper shot that killed an unarmed mother with an infant in her arms in Idaho!It makes me deeply afraid.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:16 - ID#254112)
@mozel: "..the plan for global socialism led by the United States.."
In your post about "control" you worded a great sentence:

"It was a function of the plan for global socialism led by the United States as a covert means of retaining hegemony. That plan has failed." That summarizes the history of our century from 1917 til today.

You continue:
"For a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the people of the world do not wish to be slaves in usury to the US. Those posts by
Gianni were priceless in the moral and historical context which they give."

Can you please point me to these posts from Gianni?

Thank you in advance.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 14 1998 21:16 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

There are some sweet scenes tonight on the precious metals charts.

Gold has crept back above its 100-day MA. The weekly chart has formed a triangle. Gold has been testing the ascending line and looks to have passed. It does need a significant up day tomorrow to prove its mettle. It looks to me like there is one more significant upmove in the rally that began in January.

The XAU looks even better. On the daily chart the XAU performed an outside day, usually the sign of a turnaround. And since the trend lately has been down, it would seem a turnaround would mean it's going up. That shouldn't be too hard.

On the XAU weekly chart, it too has formed a triangle. The ascending line has held; the 100-day MA was not even challenged; and the price has crept 8 ticks above its 200-day MA. The next big resistance point is around 110 ( currently 83.74 ) . I'd like to see a challenge of 110. If nothing else, it would make me feel better.

Silver has fallen below both of its major MAs. It fell through the uptrend line formed from the Aug '97 bottom. Today, silver rallied back to the underside of that trend line and then slipped back a little. Oh what a $.20 up move tomorrow would do for silver.
Longer-term, silver retraced two-thirds of its Aug-Feb rally, almost to the penny if not to the penny. I think it's time to resume the silver rally, but first things first.
1 ) Make it back over the trendline.
2 ) Make it back over the 200-day MA
3 ) Make it back over the 100-day MA

Silver has its work cut out for it.
The stochastics on the weekly chart have moved into the bottom portion of mid-range. There's nothing preventing a silver rally, IMO.

Coeur d'Alene has retraced its Dec-Apr rally by a "Fibonacci" 60.58%. Today, it touched the uptrend line extended from connecting the Dec and Jan lows. It has jammed into its gap made on the day of the Buffett announcement but has not been able to close it.
In short, CDE looks poised to resume the strong rally it saw from Dec-Apr. I like it.

Barrick has not even challenged its 200-day MA nor the 100-day. It has easily remained above both. If today's bottom at 21.00 proves to be the low on this pullback, then all it did is to move the angle of the uptrend to a more sustainable level.
The % retracement on ABX has not even been one-third, although close to it.
If we define a bull market as a condition in which the 100-day MA is above the 200-day MA and both are rising, then ABX is not far from entering a bull market. And as ABX goes, so go the senior NA mining shares. And of course, they can do little without a higher gold price.

Homestake has already begun to move higher.
Those with the capability to do so, should look at a weekly chart of Glamis Gold. What a base it has built!
Central Fund of Canada has two gaps to the upside to fill on its daily chart. Success will take it up to 4.50, currently 4.13.
Cornucopia looks hopeless.
The CRB index turned up today with an outside day reversal of sorts. If this is the bottom for the commodities index, then it has held above its January low, no mean feat.
The six-day rally in the US dollar index looks very weak. It could be subject to a rollover and breaking of its 200-day MA soon.
Golden Star put in an outside day reversal today. It too has held above its March low.
Whereas CDE dug into its gap from the Buffett announcement, Hecla has not even fallen near to its gap created at the same time. As far as a short-term, NYSE silver play goes, HL may be the man for the moment.

That should do it for this evening. I haven't been this bullish for a while. We just need one good pop in gold, silver, and the gold shares to prove the rally is back on track.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Thu May 14 1998 21:18 - ID#57232)
Good joke for you all!
Janet Reno is now y2k compliant!

(Thu May 14 1998 21:20 - ID#26793)
The traders have been saying that the Fed and the BOJ are working together to support the yen against the dollar. Draining reserves boosts the dollar unless so many frightened dollars are flooding into the country from non-official sources that there is a glut of dollars in spite of the draining. In any event, it does not seem to be helping the yen.

Clearly something unusual is afoot. I don't have an answer but I bet it is not going to be good news when we find out.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:27 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all! Please read Matt Drudge -- xxxgate update
Greetings to downunder from upover. Worthwhile day on Kitco today. If you all have time, please check out most recent Matt Drudge post regarding Jeff Gerth's NY Times article about the unauthorized sales of high technology to China. According to MD this is now the talk of official Washington. About time.

The pressure on BC is building up, and I think key people are starting to change sides in the background. However, it is impossible to predict how quickly someone like BC could be forced to step down. I would not want to be BC if his supporters finally decide that he is a liability.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:32 - ID#26793)
Barrick sees bright future ahead for gold.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:34 - ID#153102)
@Alberich Here's the First
Date: Wed May 13 1998 17:32
Gianni Dioro__A ( History of Banks ) ID#384350:
From the Aug-Sep 93 ( Vol 2, no. 15 ) issue of Nexus Magazine. Extracted
from the Book, "War Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard Kelly Hoskins.
Published by : The Virginia Publishing Company, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA
24505, USA.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:41 - ID#426220)

JTF ( Fed Drains reserves again! Venzueala )

Very interesting your comments. In this respect I would add info few are aware of about the Venezuelan currency. During the last 15 years it has devalued 99.1% against the dollar.

Contemplate the significance of of retirees who have lost more than 99% of the purchasing power of their Social Security retirement benefits. If it happened there, it could happen here.

99% l...o...s...t..............................................

Is it not obvious why some prudent souls buy gold to protect their loved ones in the uncertain future ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

(Thu May 14 1998 21:44 - ID#413109)
Clinton Threats(INDIA)
Opinion ( mine ) -
The economic sanctions Clinton has threatened India with must really
be hurting, already-India's market up a mere 3%+, but then it's early
over there.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:44 - ID#153102)
@Alberich Here's the Second
Date: Wed May 13 1998 20:52
Gianni Dioro__A ( Addendum II to 17:32 post: History of Banks ) ID#384350:
From Nexus Mag. Aug-Sep 93 ( Vol 2, No 15 ) which was extracted from
"War Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard K Hoskins. Published by: The
Virginia Publishing Company, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA 24505, USA

Look For The Third in the Posts of Today

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 14 1998 21:53 - ID#287379)
Today's reversal up in gold was comforting, but
considering how awful the stock/bond markets look, expect pressure to be applied to make it look like escaping to gold is jumping from the frying pan to the fire. ( A futile effort--in the long run, the dollar is kaput )

(Thu May 14 1998 21:57 - ID#198161)
Mr Preacher-MIQ
About 10 days ago sir, you mentioned that you had attended a session where MIQ ( Exploration Mirandor ) was promoted.

I have been a shareholder for quite sometime, due mainly to initial drilling results. They are also looking in elephant country, so a hit could be a big one. Since the announcement of the Kinross JV and drilling to commence in June, I am very satisfied with the progress.

However, I would like to ask your opinion from a fresh perspective to serve as a reality check for myself.

Thank you sir for your response, and for your postings on market conditions.

(Thu May 14 1998 21:57 - ID#287312)
Guns n Gold discussion today!
These have been a subject for centuries. I guess a few things really don't change???

(Thu May 14 1998 21:58 - ID#254112)
Thank you very much!


(Thu May 14 1998 22:03 - ID#290118)
That these Kitco sites not loading completely or stalling is due to my hardware and software. Or are others having similar problems?

Mozel, et all you gov't fearing wuses. You must be city folk. Rural folk were raised differently - they were born with a gun in one hand, a shovel in the other and true grit in their teeth. None of this flapping of gums - they was born to rip the heart out of revenuers and bureaucrats and EAT it with hot chilies! Course when they get castrated like the gov't did to farmers as reported in HARVEST OF RAGE they may suicide. That makes 'em tough folks to conquer. LIVE FREE OR DIE! The only way you will get my GOLD or my GUNS is to pry them from my cold stiff fingers!

(Thu May 14 1998 22:08 - ID#153102)
@Alberich One More; I never saw the one promised on Rome
Date: Thu May 14 1998 17:48
Gianni Dioro__A ( History of Banks, continued from 13 may ) ID#384350:
From Nexus Mag. Aug-Sep 93 ( Vol 2, no 15 ) which was extracted from the
book, "Sar Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard K Hoskins. Published by: The
Virginia Publishing Co, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA 24505

(Thu May 14 1998 22:09 - ID#210235)
Actually, the site is faster than usual this evening.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:10 - ID#413109)
Calling it as I see it
Just checked weekly charts and dollar index-
as well as bonds and possibly S&P may turn up, this is also
true of silver and maybe gold. But what I think it may foretell
is the large amounts of frightened monies out there, are looking
for a safe haven. The US may temporarily be that haven.
We should realize that not everyone in the world is as astute
as Kitcoites about the PMs as an investment, otherwise they would
drive the price sky high. But who knows, this too may materialise.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:10 - ID#409286)
TO: Preacher (Market Comments)
Liked your post. Not because it was bullish ( although that's good too! ) , but because it was well thought out. Thanks for your input!!!!!!!!!

(Thu May 14 1998 22:14 - ID#409286)
GOLD'S at $300/oz
GET READY FOR A RALLY, if not tonight, Tomorrow.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:15 - ID#30116)
mozel @ 20:40
The 'official' number of alleged 'bodies' to be hired was 100,000. The money for this 'program' was to disappear in five years from its' inception. Then the financial burden falls to the states. I read somewhere, a few months back, that less than 20,000 have been hired under the legislation. With a deal such as this, would you want to hire all of these law enforcement types only to lay them off when the federal money ran out? I think the unions might have something to say about that one... Talk about local budget problems!

(Thu May 14 1998 22:16 - ID#153102)
US Greenback fell 83% in buying power from 1965-1995.
And Venezuela's currency fell 9X% in the last 15 years against the $US ?

If there is deflation equal and opposite as reaction to inflation, grim is not word enough.

Gusto Oro
(Thu May 14 1998 22:18 - ID#377235)
Market Update
Well done Preacher. This recent pull back in the metals has given me cause for much cherry picking. --AG

Bully Beef
(Thu May 14 1998 22:22 - ID#259282)
Something wrong with site or my computer?

Can't go to morning posts.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:22 - ID#30116)
What? Something like Indonesia could move commodities?
What a concept! Riots and unrest in Indonesia ( caused by high fuel prices ) are moving commodities up.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:26 - ID#30116)
Good night all. Remember, tomorrow is options expiration. Hmmm, which way will it go?

(Thu May 14 1998 22:30 - ID#153102)
Every $US that the Federal Reserve drains from world liquidity makes it that much harder for the South Koreans to come up with their 30% worth of modern Talents - in competition with desperate Indonesia. And every $US Japan converts back to yen makes it that much more unlikely they will be able to.

Economists - what are they good for. Nuthin'. Gianni's posts explained more about economics than 99.9% of the stuff published by economists in this century. They give the phrase "money supply" a whole new meaning, don't they ?

(Thu May 14 1998 22:32 - ID#22956)
I thought some here might enjoy some *WEEKLY* commentary from Monex.......written by..........none other than.......the infamous - thong-chasin-lime-growin-corona-drinkin-wedge-watchin-bullion-trading-kitcoite Rrrrrrrrrrrr-Jjjjjjjjjjjj!!!! ENJOY...... I think that he updates these weekly. I have read the first one last week and I posted the URL. It seems like ANOTHER *tool* to stick in your tool box ( or wherever else you want to stick it ) .....

Hit RELOAD every week and see what Monex has to say regarding these here Metal Marketssss......

I have taken it upon myself to post this URL ( thought many might like it ) . Lime-Boy did NOT ask me to post it.........Mr. ( R ) J....please DON'T be upset with me..... ( sheepish grin thingy ) ... this

itters2nite... ( gulp )

how is that Ted dude I wonder.......probably icing his aching body at night....cause you know he is an animal by day........ ( grunt ) .

(Thu May 14 1998 22:34 - ID#431116)
Bully Beef
Must be your computer...I can pull them up on mine ok.

Old Soldier
(Thu May 14 1998 22:36 - ID#185274)
Confiscation and freedom again!
Squirrel, I am here. I am ready. I am watching. I have two lieutenant offspring. They are not about to confiscate anything from U.S. citizens. They will not be court martialed. There will be no mass knocks on doors.

The sordid Randy Weaver and Waco affairs prove the point. In those cases, the feds felt the need for vast numbers to subdue the few. They simply do not have logrithmically vaster numbers to subdue the many.

We are a free people and we will remain so for the forseeable future.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:39 - ID#307271)
The Preacher
Thanks Preacher, great post. I also see HL moving out of the box soon.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:41 - ID#28994)
I remember back a few months ago the chartists and wonder Gods were saying if Gold broke thru $300 there would be no stopping it.
Looks like I am going to get rich.
Whoops... spoke to soon
Nope...Ok.. now .

(Thu May 14 1998 22:43 - ID#284255)
GCM8 = $301.20 -- mooo
Y2K forecasts getting gloomier by the minute

Hospitals could face Y2K chaos
One of the world's biggest suppliers of medical equipment has predicted utter chaos over the situation most Australian hospitals will face in 19 months' time as a result of the millennium bug.

Hewlett-Packard, which has about 60 per cent of the Australian market for patient-monitoring systems, medical imaging and clinical-information systems, admits some of its equipment won't work without a fix.

Already the Gartner Group of analysts has warned that at least 10 per cent of mission-critical systems in health-care organisations will fail because of non-compliance with Y2K.
"I expect there will be utter chaos with equipment tagged and deemed unsafe".

(Thu May 14 1998 22:46 - ID#22956)
PM stuff

good reading... find the long lost Aussie/NZ duo..... Aurator&Nick@C


(Thu May 14 1998 22:47 - ID#218250)
Hecla comments made 2 days ago.
Subject: Hecla is a buy!
Date: Tue, May 12, 1998 20:32 EDT
From: Karlatapex

The price of hecla has had an incredibly bullish pattern since it's rally from 4 3/8. It completed 5 waves up and is now correcting that move. If it stays consistent with it's previous corrections on it's way to 7 1/8, a .618 fibonacci retracement of that move is at 5 7/16 or $ 5.4255. As it is usually very difficult to catch the very bottom, 5 1/2 would be an excellent price to accumulate additional shares. This is a critical level. If
bullish ( I think it is very bullish ) it may not even get to that area as todays price action has touched the .618 area at 5 9/16. 5 7/16 had a double top of resistence back in December so this is a very strong turning point. If it breaks through that area it may retrace the whole advance. I give that about a 5% chance of happening. This is a last window of opportunity to buy Hecla at this level.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:54 - ID#373284)
Old Soldier I could not agree with you moreFreedom is the wreath on the door, when it opens it is that which is America

The dream which shall never end...never...


(Thu May 14 1998 22:54 - ID#284255)
No Y2k "bank holiday" per Fed.
They wish to: "By making these actions a top priority for depository institutions and their supervisors, we hope to minimize disruptions to bank operations and to bank customers.
" Note they did not say they wish prevent all disruptions - just minimize!

A coin sale site - with a scary prediction:


1 ) The downside was not immediately apparant
2 ) It went underwater rapidly despite assurances it was un-sinkable
3 ) Only a few wealthy people got out in time
4 ) The structure appeared iron-clad
5 ) Nobody really understood the risk
6 ) The disaster happened overnight London time
7 ) Nobody spent any time monitoring the risk
8 ) People spent a lot trying to lift it out of the water
9 ) People who actually made money were not in original deal
10 ) Despite the disaster, people still went on other ships

Bully Beef
(Thu May 14 1998 22:55 - ID#259282)
G-Spot Thanxs...There seems to be a glitch.
My wife has killed the brain of the old machine and sent files ( zipped )
through the internet. They take time to download and too much happening at once. Selling the old 486 -66 but must wipe it clean. She's pissed cause I want to keep old files. She's the expert...I'm just a user.
Go Gold!

(Thu May 14 1998 22:57 - ID#153102)
Remember Waco;
Remember the falsely imprisoned from Waco. They rot behind bars now. Remember Weaver's wife.
Remember Michael New.
And there are thousands you have not heard about. Like the kid the Marines shot in Texas a couple of months back. Or the kid the Oregon cops beat to death while he was handcuffed in jail just recently.

Nobody in, around, or from government can be trusted. Nobody. And that includes especially lawyers.

trader ed
(Thu May 14 1998 22:57 - ID#373349)
3rd generation mutation of Elliott Waves
My reading of the June S&P 500 chart indicates that the market is due for a rather significant drop, likely starting tomorrow. My estimate is that the drop will be on the order of 50 S&P points. I heard somewhere that one S&P point was worth about eight Dow points. If so, the Dow will likely drop about 200 points.
Gold has not likely reached the low for this particular move. It is likely to make marginally lower lows in the next two or three days before heading up to the 315 to 317 area.
T-Bonds continue in a complex corrective pattern, gradually headed down. They are not likely to make their lows for this move for several days to a couple of weeks. When the interest rates go back above 6%, the people on CNBC are likely to get excited all over again.

(Thu May 14 1998 22:58 - ID#22956)
Who bought all the plat calls today??? Hmmmmmmm...

I haven't seen activity like this in a long time. LONG time. Those pit dudes must have had some fun today.....uh huh. w/w


(Thu May 14 1998 23:01 - ID#284255)
Y2K moves to the mining sector
RIO TINTO: $65m move to evade millennium bomb
Rio Tinto, the world's biggest mining group, is considering temporarily closing some vulnerable plants at the turn of the century to evade possible millennium bomb problems.

(Thu May 14 1998 23:03 - ID#401237)

Access problems and other things:
That happens to me once in a while, when it appears that no one else is having a problem.

I e-mail Bart and it seems to get fixed rather quickly. I don't know how, but it does.


(Thu May 14 1998 23:11 - ID#317193)
If gold holds Friday above spot $300 with no spike down or if it does spike down to $295 and rebounds your bull is alive and well.

LGB-just when you are starting to become likeable and showing a sense of humor you take off. Be safe in your journey.: )

Lighten up on Disney- you bought and paid for a bunch of the flak.


(Thu May 14 1998 23:12 - ID#373284)
I understand what you are saying, really, I do, loud and clear...what is it you would like done with the law you want their brains on the pavement? or do you have an alternative to the present slow process?

Curious like George, watching paint dry...

(Thu May 14 1998 23:24 - ID#334280)
Mozel, Farfel, and Robnoel all end with the same two letters and all sound the same. Anyone else agree?

(Thu May 14 1998 23:32 - ID#227290)
Mr. No Name and MIQ
Mr. No Name,
I really like MIQ. I talked to management recently in Montreal. Kinross is to start drilling on June 1. It should be a great summer for MIQ.
Nevada is great for gold exploration: the laws, the costs, the environment, are all excellent.
I was particularly impressed last autumn by that one hole that hit 25 feet of 15% copper plus some gold. A few more of those and MIQ will have a mine.
Jim Speros is a successful guy. And successful guys usually find a way to find success.
The stock reached a high of C$.50. IMO, the only reason it's down is because investor sentiment in the Canadian exploration stocks has waned since earlier this year despite the rise in the POG.
As a project, though, the Railroad and other zones MIQ holds are first-rate.
I can't recommend it highly enough. Funny though, I don't own any myself.

Happy times.

The Preacher

PS. -- the news from South Voisey's Bay came out at 4:00PM today. Evidently, the drills are not hitting what they expected to find. And this info was being leaked, evidently, from the time they started turning on Tuesday.
I mean, the prices of the SVB stocks started falling before the first day of drilling was over. They have continued to fall and today the VSE halted the stocks and forced them to issue a press release.
Neither stock reopened before the end of the day, but I look for Donner and Northern Abitibi to "eat it" some more tomorrow.

(Thu May 14 1998 23:33 - ID#307271)
Hecla and Battle Mountain Gold
Kapex, Hecla should easily extend beyond 7 1/8 on its next leg up reaching perhaps to 7 15/15. Set stops at 7 1/8 but set sell at closer to 7 15/16. With my shares this could mean the difference in mamas new house.
Battle Mountain Gold is forming a wedge with an apex at August 7th. Most bugs should sell the apex at about 8 . For the hard-core nugget heads, hold and hold: Battle Mountain Gold will be at 14 before this market is over.

(Thu May 14 1998 23:35 - ID#432157)
Euro-27.5% Gold backing

Expected more chatter about this priceless situation ?????

(Thu May 14 1998 23:37 - ID#401237)
Morgan Stanley cuts HK

Thursday May 14, 10:32 pm Eastern Time

Morgan Stanley cuts HK weighting, index target

HONG KONG, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Asia said on Friday it has cut its Hong Kong weighting in its Asia Pacific ex-Japan model portfolio to underweight from neutral and cut its year-end Hang Seng Index target to 13,500 points.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 14 1998 23:41 - ID#384350)
Addendum to History of Banks; last post 17:48
From Nexus Magazine Aug-Sep 93 ( vol 2, no 15 ) , extracted from, "War Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard K Hoskins, published by: The Virginia Publishing Co, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA 24505


The first war with Carthage gave Rome 3,200 talents in tribute and the second war returned 10,00 talents. This money was spent on her debts. In a short time Rome was hard up again and was forced to conquer Greece. The Greek wealth lasted Rome for a while and then, like Greece, Persia and Babylon before, Rome was forced to conquer and conquer and conquer. After Greece came Syria, and then Carthage again. By 14 AD she had conquered what would be modern-day northern and southern Italy, Sicily, Greece, the immense coastline of North Africa, Turkey, Algeria, Spain, Egypt and France.

By 98 AD Rome had added Morocco, England, and most of Scotland, and by 98-116 AD Arabia, Mesopotamia and Armenia. It was becoming expensive to conquer and the returns were scant. As long as there were nations to conquer and gold to be won, Rome was a vigorous expanding empire. When the Roman legions were at last reduced to wandering over the hot barren sands of Arabia and the equally empty barren steppes of Russia, Rome had reached the end of the line. There is never enough gold to satisfy the demands of usury.


Men seldom go into debt freely. We have ssen how The System demands that new money be borrowed into existence in order to pay 11 for 10 when only 10 exist. This will work for that class of citizen who is always in debt, but it will not do for that solid type of citizen who for business or religious reasons will not borrow new money into existence for the good of society as a whole. This is most easily done in wartime. It then becomes a "patriotic" measure.

The ideal war is the kind that results in conquests with light casualties. If such wars are not available, one must make do with what one has. Spain was such a case. Rome waged a long continuing war with Spain which lasted generations. Whenever money got scarce as interst payments took money out of circulation, the Spanish War would be taken off the back burner and heated up. This provided the excuse to levy new taxes, the payment of which required private Roman citizens to borrow new money into existence from their friendly bankers.


A problem occurred in 54 BC when Crassus, the great Roman financier, took an army into Syria. He and his army were destroyed by the Parthians. This involved Rome in never-ending wars with this nation. It was a running wound which helped bleed Rome of her manhood, but offered a perpetual excuse to borrow continuously more and more money into existence.

Thus, the Romans' debts grew larger and larger while more and more Roman boys maarched away forever.

HERMAN 16 BC - 21 AD

The second of the problems was that of the Germans led by Herman. Herman was a German serving in the Roman army when he learned of the coming Roman invasion of his native German lands. Using the cloak of official business to travel extensively beyond the Rhine, he aroused the scattered German peoples who formed a confederation to fight the coming invasion.

When Roman preparations were complete, the Roman legions wound their way across the Rhine into the forests of Germany. It was in the Teutoberg Forest that Herman and his warriors waited. When the time was right, the attack was made. The battle lasted three days. When it was over, the Roman legions had been annihilated. The monument to Herman commerorating this great victory still stands at the site of this battle. The victory stiffened the Germans and from that time onward they pressed against the Empire whenever an opportunity arose.

(Thu May 14 1998 23:48 - ID#43460)
Drug testing
By now it is wll known that former Senator Bob Dole was on the forefront of testing for the new wonder drug, Viagra.

But did you know there are other drugs being tested now even as we read this.

Senator John Glenn is testing...Flyagra

President Bill Clinton is testing...Lieagra

Doctor Kevorkian is testing...Dieagra

Ronald McDonald is testing...Fryagra

And the CIA in India is testing, you guessed it...Spyagra!

(Thu May 14 1998 23:57 - ID#373403)
Evening spot chart
Wow, I have never seen an upward movement in Australia like this. Why don't you guys sell down this rally like all the others?

(Thu May 14 1998 23:58 - ID#373284)
Your postulate appears to be somewhat inadequateperchance during a more spurious predilection us mere mortal tequila car parks could realize the portent of your elucidations.

Or the next time you plug in your amp make sure there is a puddle...

(Thu May 14 1998 23:59 - ID#284255)
GCM8 = $302.70