I have not addressed you directly before now. I have followed your euridite, knowlegeable, insightful, and deeply Patriotic posts for many months. I would be honored if you would contact me by e-mail at: Hardguy2@cvinc.tierranet.com I would like to make a modest proposal to you.I await contact, or not, at your discretion. I am a Hardguy too!

Armenia? Check your dates or your historians...

Man, tonite is pure fun..

AAA +2
LHG +1
NCM -4
NDY +0

Why is gold bolting the door?

Go Gold Go....

Just after lunch in Sydney, Gold went + $4.00 Normandy jumped 6c to $1.59 in about 10 minutes. Lihir $2.49 up 7c.

Big Money lifting it, I presume..I hope that LBMA doesnt spoil the fun.

Are Bart's quotes right or is this one of those fake outs like in silver ...only this time to the upside. His 24 hr. gold chart shows a $2 spike up at the 12 midnight point.

What is this about 27.5% gold backing?

Do you have ASX live ? NDY now $1.57, LHG is $2.49 . Something is cooking. Also unconfirmed reports of more deaths in a burning shopping mall in Jakarta just happening. Sorry no pun. INDO looking quite serious. Hope your boy is safe, Nick. John in Brisbane.

Dear friend, saw your post twice. Was willing not to get the joke ONCE - but this is too much. Who or what is Merier? I don't like to miss your linguistic feasts - or dim sum, as the case may be.

during this time...Namaste'

Thanks......

http://www.usagold.com

clank the quotes and daily report when you get there...

try this http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/goldlive/index.html

Thanks!

I was using teletext, from the 2pm report - shows how accurate they are.
Yes I worry about Damian, no news yet.
I heard a rumour that their airports are not functioning.

It is getting uglier - perhaps we should send a few pollies over there?

Just in case someone else doesn't offer you better data: I read yesterday some French Euro insider quoted ( He was in Greece at the time, I think ) saying that 35% was too high for the gold backing on the Euro, somewhere just under 27.5% was the likely target. Now, the quote was sufficiently vague that I didn't bother to cut & paste it to Kitco, but it obviously impressed someone here.

POG is in the silo and lit. Today Moody's lowered the valuation on HM and Standard and Poors lowered Battle Mountain Gold. Because ostensibly ""the dropping price of gold is reducing potential profits." Let them eat dirt. Gold, as we speak, appears to be unfurling its wings for vertical flight. Throw away your charts and chicken bones! Go you shiney gold stuff!

.

Scrums and pile-on and ball gets away from time to time

I saw your note about noted killer Lon Horiuchi. I would like to know whether anyone has info on the type of scope and magnification and range.
In other words, what did Mrs. Weaver look like in his sights?


Preacher sure had some comforting words about the metals tonight, I'm glad I held on.
Also, today you could fill SSC at .9375 and sell at 1.0625. 13.33Pct intraday. Not too shabby. I told one of my employees to do it, and he thought I was nuts. I am.

go gold go..

From my friend in Indonesia.
___________________
Suharto under severe pressure

We are OK here; but some say the rioting is worse now than it was when Sukarno's regime ended during "The Year of Living Dangerously". Yesterday was quite a day - smoke from burning buildings, cars, motorcycles filled the
horizon above areas in the city where rioting and looting shut all commercial activity and public transport down.

Most of us believe that if Suharto steps down things will return to normal quickly. This isn't likely to go away though if he doesn't. Thanks for the news updates.

Garuda cancelling flights due to aircrew not being able to get to Jakarta airport. British Embassy? recommending travel in convoy to airport. Australian Foreign Affairs has just recommended Australians leave Indonesia ( except the island of Bali ) . Dozens of bodies being removed from shopping mall. A$ at 12 and 1/2 year low of 0.6243c this morning , now bouncing to 0.6280c on higher gold price of US$303.00 .
Watch this space. John_C@Sunny_Brisbane

Go Gold Go, kick lbma in the morn..

Index Value Chg Pct Chg Date
GOLD SPOT 303.34 +4.30 +1.44 14:01

Where did you say Damien was ?

Yes, it's terrible but some less worthy than yourself always seem to hang on even over the goal line.

Does any one have a handle on the situation of Freeport Copper and Gold?
It's getting cheap. If they are not in the middle of the strife, they may come out smelling sweet. -Plunging labor costs, and sales in dollar denominated currency.
Maybe it is a side play for T1's pal Mr. Camdessus.

My order was there all day to buy SSC at 15/16 ( 5,000 shares ) and was
never filled. Very few orders were filled at that price.

Australia
All Ordinaries
^AORD
12:45AM
2771.0
+11.6
+0.42%
China
Shanghai Composite
^SSEC
11:31PM
1375.094
+7.967
+0.58%
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
12:30AM
9639.39
+47.44
+0.49%
India
BSE 30
^BSESN
12:44AM
3914.81
+16.87
+0.43%
Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
^JKSE
12:15AM
405.997
+2.298
+0.57%
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
12:45AM
15385.36
+77.67
+0.51%
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
^KLSE
12:31AM
566.88
+6.38
+1.14%
New Zealand
NZSE 40
^NZ40
12:06AM
2229.15
-7.18
-0.32%
Pakistan
Karachi 100
^KSE
7:59AM
1412.35
0.00
0.00%
Philippines
PSE Composite
^PSI
12:09AM
2128.60
-1.40
-0.07%
Singapore
Straits Times
^SS1
12:31AM
1311.03
+9.25
+0.71%
South Korea
Seoul Composite
^KS11
12:44AM
357.88
-5.06
-1.39%
Sri Lanka
All Share
^CSE
4:49AM
754.80
-22.50
-2.89%
Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted
^TWII
12:03AM
8167.50
-26.00
-0.32%
Thailand
SET
^SETI
12:45AM
369.87
+1.05
+0.28%

Go Gold Go..G'nite All.

May we all prosper, Victory belongs to the patient..

This is what it is all about folks.

SEOUL, May 15 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's ceiling on foreign stock ownership would be lifted from May 22, the finance ministry said on Friday.

Last fall, after the Asian Crash and IMF demands, it was very quitely anounced, that Asia was going to allow foreign ownership.

AIG, Chase, and others are moving in big time.

HighRise

But it is up from your 1.00 yesterday.

I agree with your remark and will add mine:

Romans in Armenia??? Is this new discovery???
---------------------------------------------

Hey, may be a couple of Romans were just shopping,
but world history still has no proof....

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/japan_indo_2.html

Was talking with a colleague at work today. A very smart, educated woman ( believe it or not, I have such colleagues ) . I casually brought up Y2K. She had "heard of it", but assured me that something as "minor as a 2 digit date problem could not wreak havoc", and that "they" would fix it. Must say that I thought the same thing a year ago, in '97. It's almost as if people have decided to choose denial.

Price of Gold rises as DOW begins it's decent. Rotation into Gold Stocks! The Walker Letter that has been mentioned did issue another warning about the Markets. That's the third warning issued this week. They see the markets as having deteriorating signals throughout this week. We may be here folks. While we all have know about the coming changes, ( and it may not be here yet, but it sure seems we must be close ) I think I will have mixed emotions if the POG soars. It's nice to make money and be on the right side of the fence, but there will be many that may lose much. The USA has been "King of the Hill" for too long and the rest of the world has had enough. It feels as if everything is coming to a head. And if that article is printed by the New York Times about technology that was given to the Chinese? Clinton may be finished at last......

He is in Yogyakarta, a city of 400k, 260 miles SE from Jakarta.
Thanks for the other info.

well said, times are about to change for the worst for millions

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - It literally was a check in the mail - in this case, an unsolicited,
``live'' check for a loan of exactly $3,506.28. But the marketing people at Beneficial
Corp. may be wishing they hadn't put one Melvin Watt on their mailing list.

They didn't know he was a congressman.
``This is a real check - cash it for an instant loan!'' beckoned the solicitation letter. The
interest rate if signed: 23.15 percent.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100h.htm

HighRise

too frequent...and not high enough in the mountains...however, the pickle merchants and vodka traders were hardy and struggled into the upright forests and were most welcome...

Their palladium tooth-picks were and till this day, are the envy of any respectful mountain dweller...A Rose is a Rose, and an Armenian from the mountains is still really an Armenian and not one of those pathetic mathematicians from Yeravan

Your heard it hear first.
Buy now while you still can!

In the midst of all this Doom and Gloom, how could we leave out Nostradamus? Seems we have a BIG METEOR that's going to wipe us out in the Autumn of 1999. September 1999, to be exact. A classic good news-bad news situation. Good news-You don't have to worry about Y2K. Bad news-The Fall is going to kill you. Reminds me of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid when they take that leap into the river. http://members.aol.com/SmakYAdowN/meteor.html

Who needs a METEOR when you have the DOW

You GIVE whitey too much credit, this gamble is not near over son...

From Nexus Magazine Aug-Sep 93 ( vol 2, no 15 )
http://www.peg.apc.org/~nexus/ ( this article is not on Nexus website )
extracted from, "War Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Richard K Hoskins, published by The Virginia Publishing Co, PO Box 997, Lynchburg VA 24505


THE ROMAN PEACE--25 AD - 175 AD

Rome found herself at war in Spain, Syria, and Germany. This was too much even for Rome. The attempt to wind down the military adventures ushered in the period called the Roman Peace. This "Peace" was not completely free from war, but it was quieter than the years preceding it. It also turned out to be the villain in the destruction of the Roman Empire.

Peace or no peace the Roman armies still must be fed, housed and armed. To do this, taxes were farmed out to the various provinces. The provinces in turn farmed them out to the various cities. The cities farmed them out to the individual citizens, industries and farms which surrounded them. This meant that a certain tax was due on a certain date based on the amount of money needed by the Empire--and it must be paid. There was no way out of it.

The central government did not borrow money as a rule. This left the individual Roman citizen holding the bag. The average Roman had very little money, and so in order to pay these taxes, he was forced to borrow from private bankers. Borrowing 10 pieces of silver and having to repay 20 over a period of time became an impossibility, and so the farmers threw their hands up and abandoned their farms to their creditors. They weren't making enough to pay the interest on their debts which they had incurred to pay taxes, and so they came to town and became part of the Roman mob. This was the origin of the Roman mob--debtridden and bankrupt Roman farmers. His farm was sold to a new debt-free immigrant for the remainder of the money owed on it.

ROMAN WELFARE STATE

Welfare in a usury society is always designed to aid the welfare of The System and, only incidentally, the welfare of the individual. Rome was no exception. The bankrupt Roman farmer arriving in town found three possible avenues open to him:

1 He could join the Roman army--a relatively carefree life. There was freedom from responsibility, and certainly there was freedom from taxes. Of course, the soldier would be called on to build the Roman roads and fortifications and help with the maintenance of the walled cities. Too, there was always the never-ending training and actual fighting required periodically in the life of a soldier.

2 He could go as a colonist to the new lands in Africa, Spain, or France which were open to settlement. Unfortunately the tax followed him to the new land, and often this made the new land unprofitable to work even before the plough had been put into the ground.

3 He could stay in Rome and go on the welfare lists. This allowed him to eat, and also served the needs of the state. As mentioned before, the overriding need of Rome in the "peace phase" was to increase the money supply. New conquests had stopped. There was no captured gold arriving to pay interest on debts. Most native romans were deeply in debt and couldn't borrow new money into existence. New debt-free immigrants had taken over the borrowing function from the native Romans.

A bankrupt man is a debt-free man, so the bankrupt Roman mob was placed on the welfare lists--the dole. With this government handout the recipients could buy goods on credit worth many times the amount of the "dole". As long as merchants received payments, both debtors and creditors were happy and the money credit supply expanded--benefiting everyone.

ROMAN TAXES

The dole helped the mob to increase the money supply. This was good, but the dole money had to come from somewhere, since the central government did not borrow. It came from increased taxes farmed out to "the provinces". This made the taxes on surviving merchants and farmers heavier than before. At this stage a number of things started happening.

First, it was so difficult to make money and pay taxes that men quit their businesses and joined the mob in Rome. Consequently, laws were passed prohibiting men from leaving their occupations.

DECLINING BIRTH RATE

Next, since money was so hard to come by and expenses were so high, there was a great reluctance among the people to have children. By 65 AD, the usury contract had swept the heartland of Rome clear of Romans. Tombstones show that 90% of the population bore non-Roman names or had names that had been "Romanised". Due also to voluntary childlessness, of 400 families of senators under Nero all trace is lost a generation later.

There were more Romans in Gaul and North Africa than there were in Italy. Lack of money caused Rome to resort to force to collect tax levies. The imperial cities were assessed taxes and the shortfall was made up by "curiales"--officeholders in charge. In former days this office was much sought after. After the imperial tax quota was filled, whatever was left over could be kept by these tax collectors. Now it was impossible to collect the needed tax quotas, much less hope for "surplus" taxes. Because of usury there were 25 pieces of silver owed for each piece of silver in existence. To make good the shortfall of government taxes in these conditions was to seek ruin. If the Curiales didn't have the required tax on due date, they had to borrow the needed tax money into existence themselves. Men refused to serve. Curiales had to be appointed. A commentator on this period, in a complete quandary over how the 10-for-11 system works, made the following comment:
"Yet there was still plenty of money about, and thanks to a highly developed banking system, loans were available at a rate of interest which rarely exceeded 6%. The writer obviously did not understand that at this time the Romans were so heavily in debt that it made absolutely no difference whether rates were 100% or 1%. The borrower would have equal difficulty in qualifying for a loan or having any chance whatsoever of repaying the loan if once obtained.

The rich bought up land to form estates. As early as 367 BC laws had to be passed limiting the acreage owned by the wealthy to 1,250 acres. It had gotten so that there was none available for the small farmer. The "Licinian Law" was passed requiring interest paid to be deducted from capital.

This was the same as doing away with interest. None of these reform laws lasted long. In 326 BC, slavery and the death penalty for non-payment of debts was abolished--everyone was becoming a slave.

The remaining Roman and Greek farmers deserted the land en masse and moved to the cities. In 135 BC Tiberius Gracchus, crossing the formerly rich and productive province of Etruria, had the impression that the land was empty. In 124 BC he tried to distribute land in order to get the Roman mob back to their farms. He was killed in a riot. In 121 BC his brother Gaius did the same and was assassinated.

By 100 BC there were only 2,000 landed proprietors in all of Italy.

ABOLITION OF SLAVERY

In the process of conquering the world, rome brought in millions of slaves. Many were Greek. Many were slaves sold to the Romans by their masters in other lands in payment for goods and taxes. These slaves living throughout Rome were, because of their slavery, denied the opportunity to become consumers and borrow money like the rest of the Roman population. As the decline of native population continued, the authorities were forced to free these slaves so that they could in turn borrow new money into existence. Slavery can never exist over a long period in a usurious society. The slaves are always freed to borrow money.

Eleven free men can borrow more money than a master with ten slaves. The system of usury itself decrees that slaves be freed, so that they can do their part in borrowing money into existence. It was along about 200 AD that slavery started to disappear.

Thus we have newly freed slaves in many cases receiving treatment and privileges which in former days would have been reserved to Roman citizens only. It is always so. A debt-free potential borrower is of far more value than a heavily indebted native citizen. The Roman financial community welcomed these freed men with open arms and treated the debt-ridden native Roman with scorn. As an added source of revenue, "Roman Citizenship" could be purchased for a reasonable sum. Nothing was denied them. Everything could be bought--if you had the money.

I have never encountered a case in history where slaves were freed en masse for humanitarian reasons. First, usury causes high prices ( inflation ) , then heavy debts, a landless people, lower birth rates and declining population, and finally immigration of new peoples needed to borrow money into existence and pay taxes, or slaves are emancipated to achieve the same object.



This "History of Banks" post and the others preceding it were taken from the Aug-Sep 93 issue of Nexus Magazine, which extracted it from the book, "War Cycles, Peace Cycles" by Hoskins cited at top.

( Nexus purpose & policy ) Nexus is a bi-monthly magazine that recognizes that humanity is undergoing a massive transformation. with that in mind, NEXUS seeks to provide "hard-to-get" information so as to assist people through these changes. While reproduction and dissemination of the information in Nexus is actively encouraged, anyone caught making a buck out of it, without our express permission will be in trouble when we catch them!

Those who enjoyed the article might wish to try to order Hoskins' book or visit the Nexus webpage ( linked at top ) .

those who translate are whoresthe brokers, this my friend is nothing more than a game to them who invented gamblingthink...otherwise you will lose more than your hand

New York-May 14-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 37,000
Silver 11,000
H.G. Copper 7,000


FWN: 155458 GMT


COMEX Copper Warehouse Stocks



New York-May 14-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
-------------------------------------------------
Delivery
point previous received withdrawn net chg total
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total 98,346 138 1,128 -990 97,356

-- SILVER
-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
-4,958 -359,722 37,321,233
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
505,517 359,722 53,025,491
COMBINED TOTAL
500,559 0 90,346,724



New York-May 14-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
561,339 75,989 402 75,587 0 636,926
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
246,261 0 0 0 0 246,261
COMBINED TOTAL
807,600 75,989 402 75,587 0 883,187

Just announced that he is rescinding TWO decrees that took effect on Monday. Effect was Fuel prices up 71% and Power ? price increase.
Comment: These price rises on Monday started the rioting this week AND were part of the restructuring ordered by the IMF ! VERY Interesting.

If this puts the IMF package at risk , how safe is the US$1 billion that our aussie politicians have ALREADY advanced to Indonesia. Bye the way that was probably funded by selling nearly all our Gold last August when it was worth about A$440 an oz. PRICE NOW: A$480 an oz. !

Nick in Cairns...Thoughts are with your family. I visited Yogya about 18 years ago when I visited the magnificent temple complex at Borobodur. It was certainly very peaceful back then.
Aussie Gold Index up 33.8 at 1320. Normandy on highs at $1.59 with 15 minutes to our market close. C U Nick John_C

Amex ignores Clinton, to go ahead with usual business
Ritwik Mukherjee
---
CALCUTTA 14 MAY
AMERICAN Express Bank ( Amex ) , a chunk of whose revenues emanate from the subcontinent, has apparently turned a deaf ear to the US President, Mr Bill Clinton's outburst against India following nuclear tests.
``Go ahead with your usual business till further intimation,'' was the singular instruction flowing in from the bank's global headquarters in New York to its various offices in India today

The single line message came as a relief to the brass of the bank's operations here who initially apprehended that the sanctions may prove detrimental for the bank which has already suffered a first quarter loss.

Yes, that is the other possibility. They are not in control, they are only reacting as best they can to a bad situation.

However, I am not as confident in taking this position. Many of these events appear to have been precipitated by the money changers who are now moving in for the spoils.

Good Night All & Good Luck Today.

HighRise

that care deeply about you and your's who are now in the midst of strife.
Hmmmmmmmmmm...

NAMASTE'

FRIDAY MAY 15 1998
Commodities 

Further gold supply jump unlikely
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
The big increase in gold supply in 1997 - which pushed the US dollar price down to its lowest for 25 years, adjusting for inflation - is unlikely to be repeated this year, according to the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy.

Supply from central bank sales, producer hedging and selling by speculating investment funds more that doubled last year to 1,179 tonnes, said GFMS in its latest annual gold market survey. This helped take total supply to a record 4,254 tonnes.

Meanwhile, demand in east Asia was hit by the economic crisis in the second half of 1997 and "the price had to fall very steeply in order to stimulate sufficient physical off-take, primarily in other parts of Asia, to balance the market," said Stewart Murray, managing director of GFMS.

The low price encouraged jewellery makers to use record amounts of gold - 3,328 tonnes against 2,837 in 1996 - as well as causing a jump in purchases of gold bars to levels not seen since the late 1980s.

Last year, central bank net sales contributed 406 tonnes to supply, up from 275 tonnes in 1996 but below the record 622 tonnes in 1992. Mr Murray said central banks would continue selling this year.

Hedging by producers had probably reached "saturation point" in Australia. There were other parts of the world, however, where producers might consider themselves to be under-hedged, "but we don't expect so much hedge selling this year," he said.

Forward sales by producers last year added 329 tonnes to supply, up from 30 tonnes, while option hedging contributed 184 tonnes, compared with 101 tonnes.

Newly mined gold supply, which increased to a record 2,464 tonnes last year from 2,357 tonnes, was likely to fall in 1998, he suggested.

As for demand, although the worst of gold scrap disposal in east Asia was over, the full impact of the economic crisis in the region was still to be felt.

The Middle East relied on oil for its wealth and present low oil prices would hit demand in that region. Another year of booming equity markets would also be bad for the gold price.

second story about gold in a few days!

JM



Further gold supply jump unlikely

By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent

The big increase in gold supply in 1997 - which pushed the US dollar price down to its lowest for 25 years, adjusting for inflation - is unlikely to be repeated this year, according to the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy.

Supply from central bank sales, producer hedging and selling by speculating investment funds more that doubled last year to 1,179 tonnes, said GFMS in its latest annual gold market survey. This helped take total supply to a record 4,254 tonnes.

Meanwhile, demand in east Asia was hit by the economic crisis in the second half of 1997 and "the price had to fall very steeply in order to stimulate sufficient physical off-take, primarily in other parts of Asia, to balance the market," said Stewart Murray, managing director of GFMS.

The low price encouraged jewellery makers to use record amounts of gold - 3,328 tonnes against 2,837 in 1996 - as well as causing a jump in purchases of gold bars to levels not seen since the late 1980s.

Last year, central bank net sales contributed 406 tonnes to supply, up from 275 tonnes in 1996 but below the record 622 tonnes in 1992. Mr Murray said central banks would continue selling this year.

Hedging by producers had probably reached "saturation point" in Australia. There were other parts of the world, however, where producers might consider themselves to be under-hedged, "but we don't expect so much hedge selling this year," he said.

Forward sales by producers last year added 329 tonnes to supply, up from 30 tonnes, while option hedging contributed 184 tonnes, compared with 101 tonnes.

Newly mined gold supply, which increased to a record 2,464 tonnes last year from 2,357 tonnes, was likely to fall in 1998, he suggested.

As for demand, although the worst of gold scrap disposal in east Asia was over, the full impact of the economic crisis in the region was still to be felt.

The Middle East relied on oil for its wealth and present low oil prices would hit demand in that region. Another year of booming equity markets would also be bad for the gold price.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------After 31 years producing the gold industry's statistical "bible," GFMS is to become an independent organisation, owned by its managers, Mr Murray announced. The present shareholder, GFSA, the South African group, will relinquish control next year.

Alan Wright, chairman, said many of the companies and individuals that supplied GFMS with confidential information had become worried about rapid ownership changes in the South African gold mining industry. "It was brought home to them that anyone might end up owning GFMS."

An independent GFMS could sell its long-term gold price forecasts to other companies, said Mr Wright. GFSA had not interfered with GFMS editorial policy but had insisted it was the only group given this information.

Gold 1998, from GFMS, Greencoat House, Francis Street, London SW1P 1DH, UK, or www.gfms.co.uk/gfms. 120 or US$195.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q24782.htm

APH on silver and gold and RJ on Platinum and Palladium. You are both appreciated.

Australian Financial Review
May 15, 1998


GOLD 'SEEP' HASTENS ITS DEMISE
By Stephen Wyatt, Washington

Gold is being mobilised. It's seeping out of the vaults of the world's central banks, once the primary accumulators of bullion and still the owners of a third of all gold produced.

This seeping has been the primary reason for the collapse in the gold price to 18-year lows, concludes London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services in its Gold 1998 report released today. Gold 1998 is the story of gold's transformation into a commodity as it loses its age-old price premium as a reserve asset or pseudo-currency. It's hardly a golden tale; more like a nightmare of a story for the gold bulls and for gold producers worldwide.

On gold's future, the report points to "a rather different mood" that is
replacing the gloom of 1997. But this was written when gold was firming back up from its 18-year lows of $US278/oz towards $US310/oz. It's now fallen back to around $US295/oz.

What's more concerning, Gold Fields points to the "real price-elasticity" of demand for gold in Asia. Of course, this is bullish while the gold price in local ( Asian ) currency terms is falling, as it did in the first half of 1997. Gold demand then surged, especially in the Indian sub-continent.

But now, with the collapse in Asian currencies, including the all-important Indian rupee, gold has in fact become increasingly expensive. What of elasticities now?

As Gold Fields says "after a good first half [of 97], the outbreak and spread of the market crisis . . . had a devastating result on the gold jewellery business". Even after a booming first half, East Asian fabrication fell by 5 per cent.

All is not lost though, there is European Monetary Union, the formation of the European Central Bank and increased control over recalcitrant individual European central banks who may decide to dump some gold. Right?

No.

Gold Fields does not broach this issue of orderly sales. The report does
however say that "the real question for the gold market is the level of gold holdings in the new European Central bank and . . . what will happen to the gold balances left with the central bank members of EMU." And that's all it says. Or almost all. Gold remaining with the European central banks, currently at a whopping 12,900 tonnes, "will vary little, regardless of whether the ECB ends up with 5 per cent, 15 per cent or 25 per cent of its reserves in gold". Even at 25 per cent, European central banks are left with a mountain of 11,421 tonnes of gold.

But back to some history. The story of gold last year, as presented by Gold Fields Mineral Services, is inexorably linked to the mobilisation of gold by central banks. What really knocked the daylights out of the gold market last year, says the GFMS report, was liquidity.This liquidity stemmed from mainly the increasingly aggressive lending of gold to the market place by central banks. Over the past 10 years, the lending of gold by central banks has risen from less than 1,000 tonnes in 1987 to 3,900 tonnes last year.

This massive increase in the pool of gold made available to the market by
central banks enabled "a whole range of derivative transactions to be
efficiently carried out, the most significant for the gold market being
hedging [mostly by producers] and short selling [essentially by US-based funds]", the report says. The supply of gold from ( producer ) forward sales, option hedging and implied disinvestment last year hit a record 773 tonnes, or just under a fifth of total market supply in 1997.

And it was the willingness of central banks to lend gold - to boost liquidity - that enabled this volume of forward selling to be executed without driving up the gold lease rate - the cost of borrowing gold to affect forward sales. Central banks also mobilised their gold reserves by just selling some of them as well.

Last year GFMS put these sales at a net 406 tonnes.

This added fire water to an already potent cocktail. The significant increase in lending, a 4.6 per cent rise in mine production after a boom the preceding year and strenuous short selling by investment funds "seemed to feed on one another, with the result that the price was driven relentlessly downwards", GFMS says.

Even booming demand, with the doubling in gold bar hoarding and the record use of gold in electronics and jewellery manufacturing, could not hold prices against the barrage of producer and fund selling.

They didn't teach me that in my senior level Bank Finance class. Someone's comments comparing the US to ancient Rome a couple days ago made me think of that article, so I went and found the magazine and ran a bunch of posts from it ( sorry for the length ) . That was one of my favorite articles, and I wanted to share it.

T Toung
.. But I am dork proof. I'll probably
miss Little Gritty Bum.. No one to Cr@p
on. I cant stand it when he behaves himself.
... I'll be waiting...

From the Drudge Report:
Democratic fund-raiser Johnny Chung has told federal investigators that he funneled dollars from a Chinese military officer to the Democrats during President Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign, the NEW YORK TIMES is set to report in Friday editions. The exclusive report written by Jeff Gerth took official Washington by storm late Thursday night.

"Chung's account, coupled with supporting documents such as bank records, is the first direct evidence obtained by the Justice Department that elements of the Chinese government made illegal contributions to the Democratic Party," reports Gerth.

As sneaked earlier this week in this space, Gerth has been building a story that expands on his initial report of a possible illegal sale of U.S. tech intelligence to the Chinese.

Gerth, who was described as completely exhausted late Thursday night after filing the story, was assisted by the paper's Justice Department hotshot David Johnston and Don Van Natta.

The sound of Pulitzer has been ringing in the air all week at the TIMES Washington bureau.

"It's the first in a series of reports that appears to be as serious as anything we've seen here," one story watcher told the DRUDGE REPORT.

Chung has told investigators, the paper reports, that a large part of the $100,000 he gave to Democratic causes in the summer of '96 came "from China's People's Liberation Army, through a Chinese lieutenant colonel and aerospace executive whose father was Gen. Liu Huaqing."

Liu was then not only China's top military commander but also a member of the top leadership of the Communist Party, reveals Gerth.

"It is not clear whether other Chinese officials or executives were involved in the purported payments by Ms. Liu, or what her motivation or the Chinese military's was."

"At the time, Clinton was making it easier for American communication satellites to be launched by Chinese rockets, a key issue for the People's Libertation Army and for Ms. Liu's company, which sells missiles for the military and also has a space subsidiary."

Jim Kennedy, adviser to White House counsel, told the paper on Thursday: "We had no knowledge about the source of Mr. Chung's money or the background of his guest."

"The TIMES looks like it is exploiting the emotional atmosphere that has developed around the state of China's military since India tested its nuclear bombs earlier this week," a well-placed congressional source told the DRUDGE REPORT.

The story runs thousands of words and is set above the fold on Page One of Friday's NEW YORK TIMES.

Friday May 15, 1:42 am Eastern Time

HONG KONG, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong spot gold rose sharply in late morning on Friday after news that gold shipments from an Indonesia mine were suspended, traders said.

Gold rose to US$303.00/75 an ounce after it opened at 299.00/50.

``It was the news of suspended gold shipments from a mine in Indonesia because of the riots,'' a trader said.

Aurora Gold Ltd in Australia said it had halted shipments of gold from its Mt Muro mine in East Kalimantan province due to civil unrest in Jakarta but said its mining was unaffected.

Another trader said the rise came after the announcement by Bank Indonesia that it had suspended clearing operations.

``Economic activity apparently has ceased. Some people are worried about the crisis and bought gold,'' the trader said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/hong_kong__3.html
HONG KONG, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong spot gold rose sharply in late morning on Friday after news that gold shipments from an Indonesia mine were suspended, traders said.

Gold rose to US$303.00/75 an ounce after it opened at 299.00/50.

``It was the news of suspended gold shipments from a mine in Indonesia because of the riots,'' a trader said.

Aurora Gold Ltd in Australia said it had halted shipments of gold from its Mt Muro mine in East Kalimantan province due to civil unrest in Jakarta but said its mining was unaffected.

Another trader said the rise came after the announcement by Bank Indonesia that it had suspended clearing operations.

``Economic activity apparently has ceased. Some people are worried about the crisis and bought gold,'' the trader said.

Auric
Sept99 is one of the triggers for computers to malfunction.
The 'Great King of Terror' could perchance be related to this.

Satellite failures, IDCIBM missiles malfunctioning?

Thanks for your emails and shows of concern. I have decided to abandon my studies and come home, along with most of the aussies staying here in Indo. I am going to Bali on Monday morning and will be back in Adelaide by Wednesday night. Things are only going to get worse here before they get better. A huge riot is planned for wednesday 20/5, and fortunately it will probably start just as i touch down in Darwin. Sorry I won't be able to make it to cairns this time, hopefully later.

Usury. What enormous consequences from one repeated simple operation. 11 for 10. The magic of compound interest.

America is being destroyed by usury. It's that simple. A process which took hundreds of years in Roman history has taken only 14 or 15 modern decades.

LGB: You should read THE MAHABHARATA.

Got a sense that the changes Kitco has been discussing will not be a gradual, orderly transition. Some event, with the impact of Pearl Harbor, will suddenly wake everyone up. Look out when that happens. I'm thinking we're all going to learn the true meaning of Millennial Madness. ( glad your son is leaving Indonesia )

Is gold slipping from recently up $4.20.Your comments please on what this will do for gold stocks tomorrow.

Sinatra reportedly died of a heart attack

How true this message is. Here is another.
Byron Dale, continuing a 16 year fight for economic Freedom for the
American people has been incarcerated!

How it all started.

As Byron Dale, filled with tension, sat at his kitchen table talking to one of the two police officers invited into his home, he was brutally struck across the forehead with a full 32 ounce glass catsup bottle, swung by the second policeman.
A bomb exploded inside of his head as he felt the bottle split his skull. He struggled to get to his feet and remain conscious. The first officer held him down to the floor while the second officer severely and maliciously beat him about his head and face beyond recognitionhis life's blood spurting onto the floor. The police officers had no papers effecting Byron's person. He was not under arrest. In fact, the brutal attack had been pre-meditated! No attackers were ever charged!
At 42, Byron Dale was, like most farmers and ranchers, working hard to build a future for his family. He had served on the school board, been active in Farm Bureau, had received the county's Outstanding Chairman' award and been honored as an outstanding manager by his community. Byron's records documented his outstanding management skills. The family ranch had become a very efficient and productive operation with the help of Byron's wife and sons. It was evident however, that Byron and his family were not getting the benefit of their efficiency and production. Many times, Byron had commented to his wife that if they'd gotten the benefit of all the interest they'd paid to the bank they'd be living like kings.
Byron understood that acquiring the tools needed to become productive and efficient required a lot of capital but he wondered how it could be that people like himself produced all the wealth but the banking system had all the money? He decided to write to the U. S. Treasury to get answers to some important questions like:
What is money?
How is money created?
How does new money get into circulation so that people can use it?
How does that affect our lives?
Russell L. Munk, Assistant General Counsel for the U. S. Treasury
responded to Byron's questions as follows: "..the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has the responsibility for determining United States monetary policy....when the economy grows, there are more economic
transactions and more money is needed to pay for them....if the money
supply is to be increased, money must be created...the actual creation of
money always involves the extension of credit by private commercial banks.."
"In modern banking, new money is created by offering loans to
customers. A private commercial bank which has just received extra reserves from the Fed...can make roughly six dollars in loans for every dollar in reserves it obtains from the Fed. How does it get six dollars from one dollar? It simply makes book entries for its customers saying you have a deposit of six dollars with us.'...You may want to know whether the bank is the one getting the benefit of the new money, since the bank OWNS the new money while the customer has merely BORROWED the money. The bank does indeed get the benefit of the new money." ( The interest or the property )
However, the American Founders provided us with a money system that would lead to a life of satisfaction, enjoyment and prosperity to ALL who were willing to work hard and honestly in their chosen occupation.

THE OLD' ROAD.
The United States Constitution ( Article 1, Section 8 ) gave Congress the
authority to monetize the peoples' production as a wealth to the people.
Congress started to fulfill this duty with passage of the 1792 Coinage Act wherein they set forth the principles for an honest, prosperity-producing money system. The peoples' production was to be monetized' through the process of coining the raw resources of the earth into money FREE TO AND FOR THE PRODUCER.
Any person could mine gold and silver bullion and take it to the U.S. Mint which would monetize' it by assaying, weighing and stamping the raw resource into coins. The person would leave the mint with his production monetized' in the form of coins which would pass from hand to hand as our medium of exchange. The money represented the wealth of the people as a wealth to the people. No debt was incurred.
But, our money system has been changed! Now, all new money is
created as loans. Only the principal is created, never the interest. The
system forces us to borrow to have money, borrow to pay the interest and hold some of our borrowings to have savings. It forces us to constantly borrow and is the actual cause of inflation and the growing difficulty making ends meet.

It means that eventually the title or mortgage to all property will be held by a few.
A history of Byron's ordeal explains the root cause of our Nation's growing economic problems and why, if not soon remedied will result in the loss of our nation, our way of life, all we've worked for, our hopes, our dreams. Byron's legal and political battle involves our rights to own property.

snipped

http://www.wavefront.com/~moneytalkscrm/

Word is going to get around.

ALL: for more background on banks & gov't are doing to farmers - refer back to my Sat May 09 1998 13:44 posted review of HARVEST OF RAGE by Joel Dyer

Well lets see: we've got chaos in Indonesia, atomic bomb testing, Clinton on the ropes,again, over illegal Chinese contributions, better metal technicals with gold climbing over $300, and leaks indicating the Euro will be 27.% "reserved" by gold. Can Gold hold $300 with the weekend coming or will it be hit by every short and short term long and end lower than half way in its range , closer to its lows.

This is a pretty good test - its a massive sell signal if it fails here. I continue to hold to the opinion that gold will not rally ( appreiable ) unitl AFTER the stock market has fallen and the dollar weakened.

We may get the next shoe to drop in the stock market Friday. Technicals there are deteriorating IMHO.

Silver up 5 cents - my gosh, it almost freightening to see that green print.

Run for cover shorts or use this opportunity to show your stuff.

CNBC Commentator:
" The recovery in Indonesia may take longer than first anticipated"

with the India and Pakistan nuclear war almost a certainty now and Indonesia melting down followed by ?? Korea ( North and South ) and Hong Kong ?? and China ?? gold had to respond ( UP ) but now that those darn kids next store getting their car licenses - and causing a REAL crisis on the block - ( and Sinatra dying ) gold will certainly hit 325! lol

I found a site for several newsgroups you should check out.
http://www.wco.com/~nethack3/#anchor371153
specifically try
comp.sys.mac.system
scoll down a ways to "Who knows ICQ and Power Mac?"
I posted a note about my not being able to change colors of text and background and not being able to see others yellow or white text. I also posted your pickle with your 68K mac.
One of the posts in the NG steered us to this site for help
news://news.mirabilis.com/icq.public.mac
which we may find at mirabilis site anyway.

With everything going on, the mideast violence is almost being missed. Shows what you have to do to get air time these days. Tough to compete with atomic testing, the fourth largest country in the world going up in smoke and over the brink, and of course the sad dimise of Old Blue Eyes.

Notice that the South African golds are not very strong - pretty much what I'm affraid we'll see today - higher opening fade into the close, more disappoinment.

Hope I'm wrong - like to see some dazzling technical fireworks and black ink on my trading ledger at week's end. Not likely - but I can dream.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/indonesia__56.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/japan_indo_5.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/japan_apri_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/indonesia__24.html

10.nov. meteor shower
9.el nino ravaged crops
8.e.u. gold policy
7.y2k scare
6.korean war
5.india/pakistanian/china war
4.middle east war
3.we are not alone announcement 2.clinton impeachment
1.billery or hillery's next unpredectable global f up.
Sure feels like we are on the verge of something big. I hope you all come through it ok.
GO GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

nuclear testing policies equal a lower demand for gold. Since India is one of the largest gold markets in the world, this is not a positive development. Could it be that that the hardline against India by Clinton is also an indirect attack on the POG?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/indonesia__23.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/russia_nor_1.html

India can buy her Gold anywhere.

How now? What a mood swing from most of the week around here.Everyone take a valium like normal people and listen to that music. The swing , to old Blue eyes and New York, New York. Go Gold!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/argentina__1.html

May 14, 1998
Asian Stk Focus: Australia's Lihir Expensive But Popular

By MARK TODD
Dow Jones Newswires

SYDNEY -- For one of the most expensive stocks listed on the Australian
Stock Exchange, gold miner Lihir Gold Ltd. ( LIHRY ) has a lot of supporters.

The company, based around the massive Lihir gold mine on a tiny island of Papua New Guinea, has watched its shares soar 40% so far in 1998 to an all-time high of A$2.75 on April 24. That compares to a 26% rise in the broader gold sector.

But the charge has surprised few analysts, who rate Lihir among their top
picks as a pure gold play, leveraged to an expected improvement in the
international gold price.

That's compounded by predictions that in the next few years Lihir output will jump to 1.0 million ounces of gold a year from the 625,000 ounces forecast for 1998, aided by a possible expansion.

If that weren't enough, there's also a sniff of corporate activity as industry majors, including Placer Dome Inc. of Canada and Rio Tinto ( RTP ) , maneuver ahead of a possible rationalization of Lihir's share register.

All this from a company barely three years old, that hasn't even wound up to full production and, based on many analysts' calculations, is one of the most expensive stocks on the Australian bourse.

Shares in Lihir ended Thursday 2 Australian cents down at A$2.42, easing
back after gold's retreat to under US$300 an ounce.

Net present valuations of the stock, which reflect the present value of
forecast future cash flows, range from A$1.04 through to A$1.60, roughly half the company's share price. This puts Lihir on an NPV-to-share-price ratio comparable to North American miners, but well above those of Australian gold concerns.

In contrast, analysts generally place Australia's largest gold producer,
Normandy Mining Ltd. ( A.NMG ) , on NPVs between A$1.30 and A$1.60.

That makes Lihir expensive, compared to the established Normandy, which pays a dividend, produces about double the ounces of its Papua New Guinea rival, and has a similar market capitalization around A$2.3 billion to A$2.4 billion.

"But, while Lihir is regarded as being a bit expensive it's also regarded as being a high quality investment for both Australian and international gold investors," says Peter Bird, gold analyst at Merrill Lynch Australia Ltd. "Because of that, they attract a premium. When the stock comes off a bit, I'd tend to buy."

Analysts uniformly describe the low-cost Lihir gold mine as a world class project. It has a resource near 42 million ounces of gold and total reserves of some 14.2 million ounces, giving it a mine life in excess of 20 years based on the company's own production estimate of 625,000 ounces of gold in 1998.

"There's not many ore bodies around like it and that's part of the attraction," Bird says. "The share price may be flat every now and then but that doesn't matter because Lihir isn't going to run out of ore which is a problem for a lot of smaller gold mining companies."

Commenting on the mooted upgrade to 1 million ounces of gold a year, Michael Merton, Lihir's general manager finance and administration, says that Lihir isn't likely to take the jump in output all at once.

Rather, he told Dow Jones Newswires that the company's strategy is one of
incremental expansion, citing a new, US$32 million oxygen plant that he
hopes will help raise Lihir's average gold output by "a shade under" 100,000 ounces in 1999 and 2000, declining thereafter.

"As everyone knows, we have a large resource and over the next few years we hope to prove it," Merton says.

Exploiting that large resource holds one of the keys to further appreciation in Lihir's share price. "It's the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow," says Grant Craighead from Macquarie Equities Ltd.

Much of the gold and silver that goes into India is sold in London to brokers in places like Dubai and Singapore, before it is resold into India. ( Or at least that was the case the last time I checked ) Chaos breeds uncertainty; uncertainty fuels the fire of precious metals purchases. Buy gold and silver.

May 15, 1998
Australia Straits Resources Halts Gold Exploration In Java
Dow Jones Newswires

SYDNEY -- Australia's Straits Resources Ltd., a copper mining and mineral
exploration company, has halted its gold exploration works on the Indonesian island of Java amid civil unrest there, Brian Rear, its chief executive, told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.

"We have closed that operation down for the moment and moved our people away from Bandung to Balikpapan as a precaution," Rear said.

Straits Resources' coal mining works in Kalimantan have remained unaffected, because the area hasn't seen the rioting that has spread throughout the Indonesian capital of Jakarta and other towns and cities on the main island of Java.

Straits Resources' 713-square-kilometer gold exploration zone is in Kuda on the island of Java. Straits Resources holds a 62% stake in the project, while Indonesian government-owned PT Aneka Tambang owns 25%. The remaining 13% is held by PT. Basya Tunggal Jaya.

"Once we are happy with how things settle down there, and we can move
around without undue concern, we'll start work again," Rear said of the
suspended gold operations.

Rear said gold exploration isn't big but is still important to Straits Resources. "We rate Indonesia quite highly and we've not abandoned ( the project ) totally," he said.

Meanwhile, its few-months-old coal mine is "operating normally," said Rear. The mine is at Sebuku, south Kalimantan, on the Indonesian part of the island of Borneo. According to Rear, coal production at the mine is running at 1.5 million metric tons per year.

-By Hamisah Samad; 612-9290-8873;
hsamad@ap.org

WASHINGTON -- A Democratic fund-raiser has told Federal
investigators he funneled tens of thousands of dollars from a
Chinese military officer to the Democrats during President Clinton's 1996
re-election campaign, according to lawyers and officials with knowledge
of the Justice Department's campaign finance inquiry.

The fund-raiser, Johnny Chung, told investigators that a large part of the
nearly $100,000 he gave to Democratic causes in the summer of 1996 --
including $80,000 to the Democratic National Committee -- came from
China's People's Liberation Army through a Chinese lieutenant colonel
and aerospace executive whose father was General Liu Huaqing, the
officials and lawyers said.

General Liu was then not only China's top military commander but also a
member of the top leadership of the Communist Party.
( very long article, P1 )

The post on rioting in Indonesia reminds me of riots in LA when I was there a few years back. The conditions for new rioting in LA are even worse today, as they are in Boston, Philly, Miami, Chicago, Newark... The equity boom of the 90's has not been good to the poor. If there are service, goods distribution, and cash availability problems from Y2K, these will hit the inner sities harder than anywhere. As in the the Indonesia article, we might expect to read in the March 2000 NY Times, "Things have been simmering for so long, we think something will happen" and "The spoils -- brand new stereos, refrigerators and television sets -- now sparkle in many of the city's slums."
-EJ

will reduce the available money for purchasing gold. People on the Indian subcontinent buy gold and actually take delivery, rather than
spin paper.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980515/V000764-051598-idx.html

Date: Fri May 15 1998 02:40
sharefin ( Email from my son. ) ID#284255:

sharefin, we are relieved to hear that your son is heading home. We eagerly await news that he has arrived from that dangerous area.


+++++++


Well, I guess Camdeus ( sp ) and the IMF are very proud of their good work. Indonesia and South Korea afterall have been doing so well under the guidance of the IMF.

Posting your hopes on the USdollar is a very dangerous game. MOre and more countries are going to avoid it and the travails it is bringing.

Indonesia has to work out their problems by defaulting on the western loans ( including IMF's ) and working with the regional governments. Son't strave your own people to please the USG and its puppet IMF.

IMHO

sharefin: I'm relieved to learn that your son is coming home from Indonesia. He will never forget what he has seen, and I hope he gets out without difficulty.

I think what is happening with North Korea, India, Pakistan, and possibly China would be a severe diplomatic test for the best of our historical world leaders. Israel and Palestine are going at it again, too. I am not confident that our BC will be able to deal with events like this this effectively, even without xxxxgate heating up. Even a Churchill or a Nehru would have difficulty. I hope also that Suharto has enough sense to resign. It is unfortunate that human nature is as it is. We are only capable of cultivating great leaders after great crises, not before.

I wish we were not having this kind of coalescence ( attractor? ) merging of events -- but it is indeed bullish for gold, and probably for the US dollar. The world does not need to emerge into the millenium with news like this, but we must not give up regardless. This gold bug will be riding the gold bug Tsunami with reluctance, but we have little choice, don't we? As long as the world markets do not crash outright, gold and gold stocks will do very well -- as long as the specific companies involved are not physically in the center of the violence.

I sincerely hope that the turmoil in Indonesia does not spread to Australia -- I would guess that at the very least you will have many refugees.

Date: Fri May 15 1998 04:32
jims ( Quote of the Day ) ID#252391:
CNBC Commentator:
" The recovery in Indonesia may take longer than first anticipated"

******

jims, you just have to laugh at the intelligence of those folks. How in the world would they make a living if there weren't talking head jobs??


*******


Donald, what did the FED do yesterday??? Did they refrain from doing anything in the market or drain money from it. ( I am quitting using their double speak words - liquidity ) .

http://www.scmp.com/news/special/cbr/index.asp?Folio=CBRMay98&Article_Id=19980513165126020

Mr. Frank Albert Sinatra: Simply The Best, Master of Songs, excellent diction/elocution, superb timing, a crooner, the bar room singer, pop songs, a class act~~~ his voice, his WAY, is immortal. Sing on man,
Oh yeh~~~~~What an act!

Once again KITCO sentiment has proven to be a great contrary indicator. Everyone very bearish just before POG snaps back.

Since gold stocks held up much better than bullion in the recent selloff, they probably will not rebound as strongly as POG.

Thursday May 14, 11:49 pm Eastern Time

IMF delays arrival of review mission to Jakarta

JAKARTA, May 15 ( Reuters ) - The arrival of an IMF mission due in Jakarta this weekend to review Indonesia's progress in economic reforms has been delayed because of the security situation, an IMF official said on Friday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/indonesia__61.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/fed_drains_1.html

Michael J. Stango -known as 'mjstango' at his ISP, 'worldnet.att.net'
signs his posting with
"Being a Mac user is like being a Navy SEAL: a small, elite group of
people with access to the most sophisticated technology in the world,
who are called upon to get the really tough jobs done quickly and
efficiently."

testing

Friday May 15, 6:34 am Eastern Time

Asia Metals-Jakarta riots give markets the jitters

By James Regan

PERTH, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Rioting in Jakarta has given metals markets a case of the jitters despite efforts by mining companies to distance their operations from
the unrest.

Gold and copper, two of Indonesia's staple metals exports, edged unexpectedly higher in the normally dormant Asian trading period, underpinned by the Indonesian
situation, most dealers said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/asia_metal_1.html

Friday May 15, 6:05 am Eastern Time

G8 urged to act to avoid millennium computer chaos

By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent

LONDON, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Leaders at the G8 summit this weekend will discuss how to combat possible fallout from the millennium computer bomb, and
industry experts said on Friday action is crucial if disaster is to be avoided.

World industry is now so reliant on computers that a rash of failures could cause economic disruption. Some experts say this could tip the world into recession or
worse.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/group_mill_1.html

Friday May 15, 6:49 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-Indonesia reverses policy, cuts oil prices

By Neil Fullick

SINGAPORE, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia's President Suharto dangled a political carrot to rioters on Friday, cutting back some of the oil price rises that sparked
widespread social unrest.

But economists said the cuts might have come too late to turn the tide of political opposition to Suharto and would only delay the inevitable price rises that were
necessary to eliminate government subsidies.

``I am not sure that by revoking the fuel price hikes things will change that much. It's a case of being a little too late,'' said Chiang Yao Chye, head of Asia-Pacific
Research at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) in Singapore.

The price increases prompted higher fares on public transports and boosted electricity prices.

They were part of a more than $40 billion bail-out package led by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) . A major part of the package was to get rid of government subsidies.

The hikes were among the most difficult of the IMF prescriptions for the Indonesian government to implement and were widely blamed for the worsening unrest.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/indonesia__27.html


BBML

Guess this is still part of the "Glitch in the Asian Road" that Slick Willie was refering to. Next time someone should ask him what a "Glitch" is and what it means.
Reminds me of some trusting, hard working Australian farmers in the 1980's that trusted their local bankers. The farmers were convinced by their bankers to take out cheap low interest loans in foreign currencies. Then the loans were called in and the farmers found out that they owed 2-3 times more than originally borrowed. Many committed suicide. Pitty they should have done to the bankers, what the Indonesians are doing now.

All this sexgate, whitewatergate, and other minor stuff that was being used successfully as a smokescreen may give way to investigations into serious national security issues such as selling China nuclear and military technology, questions about the Long Beach Naval Shipyard deal, liquidation of enemies or those who could damage the President {incl. assassination of cabinet secretary and other government officials} effectively vetoing {by refusing to fund} anti-missle defense system programs passed by Congress and signed by Billy Boy
and many other crimes yet to be fully uncovered.
{I'm really pushing it to get a visit from the Secret Service}

Date: Fri May 15 1998 07:38
Donald ( @A. Goose; The Fed drained at a time when Fed Funds were 1/16 ABOVE target. ) ID#26793:


****

Thanks Donald. Definitely the usdollar is under seige. I challenge ANYONE to tell me the last time the FED removed removed usdollars from the market 7 days in a row ( 6 consective 2days out of market and removed money yesterday ) .

There is some MAJOR structural seam that is snapping as we converse. The asian crisis is building, the tsunami ( spelling bad, sleepy here ) is building, they can feel the undertow and the wave is moving on wall street...

The FED must be desperate! What is happening to all securities bonds etc that they are giving people deals on to get that excess MONEY out of the market??? I would think folks would just turn it around as fast as they can and sell it to raise cash and get out of usdollar based instruments.


FOLKS, what happens when the FED continues in this mode????


I'm out of here, got to get some more sleep.

All this stuff has been printed elsewhere in national and international publications like THE ECONOMIST.

From 4/23 to yesterday gold dropped 5.1% and the XAU dropped 11.3%. This more or less 2/1 relationship is about average for 2 wk changes in gold and shares over the last 14 years.

Its Friday and Toronto is about half empty in preparation for the first long weekend of the summer. Maybe a 1 000 000 citizens of MegaCity will flee to their cottages in the surrounding lakes in the next 10 hours to the avoid the 90 degree heat and the Made in the USA smog that has just arrived.

The 24th of May is the Queen's Birthday
Give us a holiday or
We will all run away.

Royal Oak shaken

B.C. sheriff serves writ of seizure, seeking sale of Kemess mine

By PETER KENNEDY
Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post
An impatient contractor has taken legal action against Royal Oak Mines Inc., seeking payment
for work performed at the embattled company's $470-million Kemess gold-copper mine.
Acting on behalf of Tercon Contractors Ltd., a British Columbia sheriff served Royal Oak
yesterday with a writ of seizure and sale on the Kemess mine in northern B.C., which began
operations this week.
The writ could result in the mine being put up for sale if Tercon does not receive $800,000 of
the $6.4 million it is owed for work peformed on the mine's tailings containment pond.
Tercon president Glenn Walsh said his Kamloops, B.C., company is only one of "dozens of
contractors and suppliers'' owed money by Royal Oak.
In a statement issued late yesterday, Royal Oak chief executive Margaret Witte said she is
fighting the seizure order by seeking a stay of execution in the B.C. Supreme Court.
"Royal Oak is disappointed that Tercon has decided to pursue this course of action in an
apparent attempt to force priority over the other claimants and creditors,'' she said.
Earlier this week, the Kirkland, Wash., gold miner said 90% of its $95.6 million in accounts
payable and accrued liabilities at the end of the first quarter relate to unpaid construction bills
at Kemess.
The company can't pay these bills until its U.S. bondholders permit it access to a
US$120-million debt financing arranged with Trilon Financial Corp. of Toronto. Crucial
negotiations with the bondholders have not yet produced a deal.
But sources said Trilon won't issue the funds until certain legal disputes between the company
and the Kemess contractors are settled.
The source said certain contractors are balking at Royal Oak's offer of 50 to 60 on the
dollar in exchange for settling remaining liens against the Kemess property.
One contractor, who asked not to be identified, said "the Royal Oak people are very, very,
hard nosed in their dealings,'' but added that such offers are common practice in the mining
business.
He said contractors and suppliers typically try to avoid disputes by keeping tight constraints
on the amounts they are owed by mining companies at any given time.
Meanwhile, Tercon is moving to get paid ahead of the other suppliers because of a recent
judgment that Walsh said has "solidified the amount it is owed.''
Tercon is trying to recover the $800,000 unsecured portion of the $6.4 million, which an
arbitrator appointed by the B.C. Supreme Court ordered Royal Oak to pay on May 7.
The contractor says it is owed the money for work performed on pumping and diversion
facilities relating to the tailings dam.
"We have had discussions with Royal Oak, but we have received no assurances that we will
be paid in full by any means,'' said Walsh.
Royal Oak spokesman Graham Eacott said the writ of seizure is not affecting Royal Oak's
plans to get the mine into full operation.
"We plan to feed ore through the mill [today],'' he said.
Kemess is slated to produce 163,000 ounces of gold, or 45% of Royal Oak's 1998 gold
output, and 41 million pounds of copper annually.
Royal Oak ( RYO/TSE ) shares closed unchanged yesterday at $1.65.

Friday, May 15, 1998

Pressure builds on C$ as inflation eases

By DAVID THOMAS

Economics Reporter The Financial Post

Inflation took a surprise downward turn in April, with the

annual rate of change in the consumer price index dropping

to just 0.8% from an already low rate of 0.9% in March,

Statistics Canada reported yesterday.

The trend to lower inflation weighed on the C$. It continued

to reel yesterday after losing more than half a cent

Wednesday when the Bank of Canada signalled it plans to

keep interest rates steady through to November. Higher

interest rates tend to boost the value of the currency.

The C$ was down almost a third of a cent yesterday to

US68.90, but recovered somewhat to close at US69.06,

down US0.15.

Analysts had expected inflation to post a small gain and

several continued to call for a rebound in the rate, with

inflation heading toward 2% by the end of the year.

"Overall, the rate is likely to edge up to 1% in May, rising to

1.3% by July and 1.8% by December," said John Lester, an economist with CIBC Wood Gundy

Securities Inc.

Randall Powley, senior economist at Scotia Capital Markets, said inflation should be on a clear

accelerating path by the third quarter and hit 2% by early 1999.

The core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at an

annual rate of 1.2%, down from March's 1.3%.

April's decline was led by a 0.9% drop in clothing prices and a 0.8% fall in new automobile

prices. Food prices were down 0.3% as fresh vegetables gave back some of the March

increases related to El Nino-plagued growing conditions in the U.S. and Mexico.

In a report released Wednesday, the Bank of Canada indicated it is ready to tolerate more

volatility in the value of the C$ without countering with an interest rate hike.

However, the bank said it would move if there were new monetary shocks. One such shock

could be a renewed slide in the C$.

Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns Inc., has been urging the bank to raise its

overnight lending rate to equal that of the U.S. Yesterday, she said if the bank doesn't act, it

will be pushed into doing so by further weakness in the C$.

"It is only a matter of time before the bank is forced into hiking rates yet again to defend the

sinking dollar."

The C$ hit a record low of US68.25 in January, one day before the bank raised its rate by

half a percentage point to 5%.

Another concern for the C$ is the possibility the U.S. may raise interest rates first, increasing

the spread between the two countries' short-term rates. The Federal Reserve's overnight rate

is 5.5%.

Yesterday's inflation report in the U.S. showed its CPI was up 0.2% in April on a monthly basis

but the core rate actually declined to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.3% in March.

All:

The overnight pop in a gold reflects a market that is Not As Before. The composition of the buyers leads one to believe that the bounce is not technical in nature but more fundamentally driven. No doubt the technical players will point to the trendlines, stochastics, relative strength of XAU etc., but the impetus here is deeper than that.

There had been a few rumors running around the market relating to selling from the Swiss National Bank which have subsequently been denied. This may be part of the answer or there may have been a producer buyback coming out of Australia. With the A$ being very weak, the price of gold in A$ has been quite strong. It is possible that an overly hedged producer is feeling the heat.

From a macro point of view this action would suggest that SE Asia is no longer viewed as a monolithic block, but rather composed of separate economic entities. The clearest indication of this is in the currency markets, where the countries other than Indonesia have not seen huge declines. Even in Indonesia, the price is well above the panic lows of earlier in the year. Most telling is that the Yen is hanging tough at the 134 level despite what must be enormous pressure from the hedge fund community and outflows from the population related to the Big Bang liberalization. The risk of deflationary contagion appears to be receding even as the realities of the political and economic horror become more graphic.

The move down following a crash and a rebound is always the one of complete dispair. Those that have held through the crash and have seen a big relief rally are in no shape to psychologically or financially weather another drive to the lows. This is often where real lows are put in place in the market. If this turns out to be that case in SE Asia, signs of a bottom should become evident in fairly short order. The base metals markets which have declined sharply and in some cases made new lows ( nickel ) on the back of this recent decline should begin to recover. The action in gold is indicative of a market that no longer is hostage to the contagion/deflation story.

One thing that the SE Asian situation does is put the nail in the coffin on any rate hikes next week by the Fed. This will give the precious metals another 2 months to do what they will do, without the spectre of tighter money.

Carl: My understanding is that the XAU/POG relationship is usually three to one. But the XAU rose four times as much as POG from laat fall's bottom to the April top.

With XAU still very high relative to POG, my guess is that the relationship in the ongoing rally will be about two to one -- the same is during the recent decline.

Slick Willie Scum-Bag is a stayer. His people love em.
Some how, though it is difficult to accept, "we get the politicians we deserve" Look around more than half of the people ( called majority ) think he is a role model. Citizens of OPRAH World/Hollywood and her ilk.
Sienfeld's last show will get more media coverage in the USA than Indonesia or other World econonic and political issues.

It is now rolled into one big show for the majority, Stock market, Dow, TV, Movies, Washington DC, Oprah, Bill & Hill, credit, be pro Isreal anti Arab/Iraq and give them cheap gas. Once you have it down pat - export it to the world.

Please tell me it isn't true! Reminds me of the movie "Goodfellas" when the legitimate business asks the mob for a little help. The mob gives them help all right - after wrecking the business ( reputation wise and financially ) , they then torched it - burned it to the ground.

Not to say that Monex is associated with the mob ( although it COULD be ) ... However, I have personally worked with four of their "brokers" and I am currently A LOT "BROKER" than I was when I started. Mostly my own fault for trusting their outstanding track record of expert metals "advice." Three of these good fellows were in character with those mobsters in the movie - greedy, stupid, brainless, and looking for another killing, or job, or sucker to rip off.

The jury is still out on the fourth guy. ( Hmmm, sounds like a good title to my next book "The Fourth Guy" - no offense Graham Greene. )

You want names? Can't do it.. at least not yet. Like I said, the jury is still out... Maybe after the trial is over. Hope this doesn't generate a vendetta against me or what's left in the account. If the trial comes out in my favor, I might change my tune. It's all up to the "4th Guy."

If you needed money that bad Bart, I would have bought some Mounties... Watch your back, Mr. K-man.

gunrunnr@nwfl.net

POG up to 302ish. A rally on the way perhaps?? I predicted a fall. Will be delighted to be proven wrong.

Or a flash in the pan. Hmmmmmmmmmm We shall se.

I agree with your guess as to 2/1 in the future. I too believed for many years that there is a 3/1 relationship to movement in shares versus gold. But when I recently looked at the last 14+ years of share and gold movements, I found this to be something of a myth. While it is true that the share market it much more "nervous" and very quick off the blocks ( often in error ) than the gold market, when all is said and done, their relationship is 2:1 not 3:1. ( The caveat, of course, is that this relationship has occurred in a gold range of roughly 3-5 hundred. )

Well, if this little pop in gold holds to the open, we will break an upper trendline on the Xau, and will be headed for Xau 91 for sure. Elliott count http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm

International Consequences of the Euro

Robert Mundell

AGIP Professor of Economics

The Johns Hopkins SAIS Bologna Center

and

Professor of Economics

Columbia University

Hey, that guy represents approx. 50% of the Mundell/Fleming-Model. Full text of his speech at austrian CB in english language at: http://www.oenb.co.at/oenb/
Not news, but worth a read.
Also available ( besides some others ) a referate by Otmar Issing ( German CB ) , but only german short text.

Carl/Old, I hope I'm not stating the obvious, but a wise investment advisor opened my eyes to the relationship between Gold Mining Stocks and the price of Gold. To say that it is 2/1 or 3/1 may be accurate depending on the price level, but it is easier to understand the underlying factors that affect those ratios. Theoretically, depending on the POG, it COULD BE 1/1. Here's how it was explained to me:

Stocks typically ( current market notwithstanding - :-0 ) trade based on reasonable Price to Earnings Ratios. If we assume that Gold mining has a relatively fixed cost, whatever it is, the "Earnings" would be the ( Price of gold per oz. - Cost of mining per oz. ) X # of oz. produced.
Duh, right? So, let's look at an example:
If POG is $310 and Cost is $300, Net profit is $10 per oz. If at a reasonable P/E Ratio, that induces a stock price of $10/share, then, theoretically, if the POG goes up to $320, earnings double and the stock goes to $20/share. So, the stock went up 100% but Gold only went up 3%, so you'd have a 33/1 ratio. That explains the much wilder volatility in stocks than in the underlying metals price. However, if POG is $1210 and goes to $1220 ( I can dream, can't I? ) , the increase in stock price would be much closer to 1/1 compared to the increase in the price of Gold. Again, please forgive if I'm stating the obvious.

just posted on the Sydney Morning Herald Website

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/index.html ( today only, obviously )

especially look at:

( 500 dead! )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980516/pageone/pageone1.html

Your investment advisor certainly stated the case for gold shares: the earnings leverage to gold price is potentially enourmous for most of them. However, everyone knows this, which is why share investors tend to be like gamblers betting on the come. The share prices tend always to discount at least a piece of this possible profit leverage. I'm talking about N American shares here. There have been times in the past when the S A shares traded on their earnings and payouts. ( sometimes enourmous as in the 70's when their dividends put my children through school ) I would expect this to happen to the N A shares when gold has its hayday.

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980516/business/business8.html

seems like the business writers in the smh really aren't consulting with the ppl from the world gold council ( or perhaps they aren't kitco readers... )

how the heck do we tell the masses what the real story is?

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^MTMS&d=t

reached a new 52-week low today ... HMMmmmm...

the S. Korean one isn't too far away either...

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^KS11&d=t

Go Gold Go..Can anyone tell me why TVX is so low inspite of profits / high production. It is down more than a buck than what I bought at.

Any ideas of Euro announcement, this would provide a strong direction for POG and likely put a cap on further european CB sales. I do not think that USA or Asian/Australian/African CB's will sell their Gold inventories and also the euro % backing gold would also force other non european CB's to match up with like gold ratio to show hardness of their currencies.

All in All, the future may turn out good for us, Ameen.

moved to a SAFE new residence?

Were I his bosses, I would do that for him and for myself, also.
This in view of the coming debacle promised by even the best case scenario as concerns y2k.....
My gorge rises every time I think of Waco and Ruby Ridge.

My reasons are my own and they are not without number. In fact there are only a few over two ( 2 ) M.

"Breathes there a man with soul so dead who never to himself has said..." come on y2k...come on y2k...come on y2k..., Hi Yo Silver and Gold!!

Squirrel,
I hope you are aware there are literally MILLIONS of understanding and anxious persons out here. Not all cyber stuff. In the real world! I am sure when the time is right, we'll all know it!

Hardguy2
. As one who has locked horns with the federales and irsagents ( broke an antler, too ) , I know whereof you speak and am in hearty support of any and all curative measures yet to be taken. Come on y2k...!!

The press is gaining on the truth about gold. When the story is no longer true, they will still be reporting how great things are, beyond expiration. The "masses" you speak of will line your pockets with cash "investing" on this info. This is similar to general equities at present.

If if holds, the XAU will have broken the recent downtrend. Dipsters
remunerated.

I think Suharto would be much more likely to step down if the US hadn't double crossed Marcos

Yes, I noticed the Russian market today, and yesterday down over 5%, too. I wonder if that small mutiny that was reported in the news yesterday has folks skittish? Didn't hear any other news.

Something I forgot to mention, which I feel
is important in regard to numerous Norilsk
stories on ore depletion, complete disaster,
stockpiles gone with the wind and etc....

They do have problems, I would not deny it.
But please read Donald's 6:30 this morning.
THE FINNS ARE COMING! It was known for a while,
but I just assumed that most of the people over
here know that Finland is the only country in the
world which can really deal with Russians, doing
business Russian style and making money Western
style. Finns like to drink too, were doing business
with USSR for 50 years and even Finish Army is armed
wirh mostly Russian-made weapons, including Mig-29s.
But they are also hard-core westerners. Russians
can not cheat on them like they do with the rest of
world, Finns beat them too often with their own weapons...


So, dear brothers, if Finns and their money are there
with long-term interests in Norilsk, I would say
rumors on Norilsk "death" are not correct, period.


the rest of the story...


natural born

Two last lines in my post are junk, forgot to delete.

Midas: Your take on gold sure has changed a lot these last few days. From despair to great expectations.

Oris,

As an American of Finnish decent I welcome your insight. Did you know that Finland was the only country to repay its WWII debt to the US?

Yes they play hard, but they also work hard and know what they are doing.

South African gold mine analyst John Disney has generously shared his report of the Fabulous Fundamentals of Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY on the NASDAQ ) .

Disney compares various Harmony statistics with those of Barrick Gold - the latter coming up most often on the short end of the stick. His exhaustive analysis discloses Harmony as an extremely undervalued investment relative to its market price. Subsequently, Harmony pregnant with gold reserves ( comparable to Barrick's ) is a prime candidate for take-over or merger by deep-pocketed North-American precious metals mining companies. Ironically, a much energized Harmony is aggressively seeking ITS OWN acquisitions in Canada and the very undervalued South Africa. It's a question of WHO is the hunter, and WHO will be the hunted.

In any case Harmony Gold Mines will soon command a much higher stock value in its ADRs on the NASDAQ, and in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. It's a must read. OH, remember to delete the extra letter "b" in word "beagle."

http://www.gold-beagle.com/south_africa/regional_analysts/disney051498.html

I'm not surprised that they paid their debt to the U.S.,
it's their style. By the way, they are also very intellegent
in diplomatic affairs, which allowed them not just to
survive, but prosper tremendously.

Finland is also #1 in thw world in commercial freight business
between Russia and the rest of the world.

since inspite of profitable Qtr ? and BGO & RANGY , I am down on that too from 3.90 and US $ 1.50.

In addition to the common coin of the realm [the copper plated, brass, Nordic gold coins] they introduced, at Fayence in 1997, a gold 22 K Euro coin, the specifications of which one may find at
http://www.sateim.com/pays-de-fayence/patrimoine-euro-de.html

The next right of sale was won by lottery at a large German establishment, where one may view a picture of the coin [but no particulars--they are being VERY cagey!]
http://www.mdm.de/

Midas,
Of the three stocks you mention, I only follow BGO. As I said, I bought it again on Wednesday and got filled at C$3.40. It's back up to that level this morning.
I only bought half my normal allotment. This morning I put the other half into Arizona Star, thinking it would be more volatile on the upside. And since I think this move in gold is for real and we'll see $325 before long, I want as much volatility as I can get.
I would also think you'd be all right with TVX. We half to judge a company by its fundamentals first, not its price action. With positive earnings, TVX should be in good shape. It may be a little slow getting out of the gate on this runup, but it should be strong at the finish line.

Last night I wrote that silver would benefit greatly from a $.20 up day today. I see it's now up $.10; hopefully we'll get the rest before the close.

Happy trading,

The Preacher


PS.-- The South Voisey's Bay stocks have reopened this morning after being halted almost all day yesterday. More carnage, although since these are viable projects and a lot of money will be spent in the area this year, they may be nearing a bottom.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
Type in " INDU /GCM8 "

XAU/Gold ratio chart;
Type in " XAU.X /GCM8 "

SP500/gold ratio chart;
Type in " INX /GCM8 "

JTF, All
Thanks for the concern for my boy.

This is important. A few people have been commenting on this, and a bit has been said in the financial press- but John Crudele is the first reporter I've seen publishing it in a popular paper.

This is unprecedented. There has never before been a situation where a US administration has propped up a bubble market by intervening with gov't funds in the futures market and by cooking the numbers issued by federal agencies.

CLinton knows he's toast if the economy tanks- and I find it interesting that the only thing that was able to force him to hold a press conference was when he was refusing to meet the press in the wake of the perjury investigations the need to reassure the markets after "bubble" stories started getting legs in the press.


WHY THOSE GREAT JOBLESS NUMBERS AREN'T SO GREAT
By JOHN CRUDELE
NYT


DO we really have the lowest unemployment rate since 1970?

The White House want Americans to think so. But the truth
is that in 1994 and again in 1996 Washington made significant
changes to its survey methods.

And these changes, at the very least, make comparisons
between now and any time before 1993 impossible - making
claims of a superior economy today dishonest.

I've touched on this subject before when I wrote in 1996 that
the Census Bureau had reduced the size of its monthly
survey sample by a substantial number of people and that it
probably altered results.

Back then, however, I was writing about how the Commerce
Department was making the unsubstantiated claim that the
nation's poverty level had been dropping by impressive
numbers. Maybe it had, maybe it hadn't.

The very same holds true for the Clinton administration's
claim that the 4.3 percent unemployment rate recorded in
April was the best in 28 years. This is the same sample that is
used to measure poverty levels. It's called the Current
Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau,
and it can't be trusted.

Here's why.

Not only has the government changed the questions it is
asking to determine the number of unemployed, but it also
has reduced the number of households questioned from
65,000 to 50,000.

It was a cost-saving move, the government said. But the
government also said in 1994, the year these changes were
first made, that it would be unfair to compare any
unemployment number generated by this new survey with
past rates. Unfair, that is, until it suits Washington's
purposes. Now the White House is comparing the 4.3 percent
rate in April with numbers put together in a different way in
1970.

Why am I against Washington saving a few bucks on these
surveys? Because of the bias that seems built in.

The number of people surveyed was cut in two stages. In the
second stage, the number went from 57,000 to 50,000 in 1996.
But the Census Bureau has admitted that these last cuts were
made from big cities, like New York and Los Angeles, and
from states with older industries like Illinois, Michigan,
Massachussets, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Cuts
were also made in North Carolina.

If I were looking to slant a survey so that I found less
poverty and less unemployment, I'd cut down on the number
of people I asked in cities like L.A. and New York. And
reducing the number of people called in Rust Belt states like
Ohio and Pennsylvania certainly would cut down on poverty
and unemployment.

But there is another problem. The unemployment rate in April
didn't go down three-tenths of a point because the economy
suddenly perked up. There is something called a seasonal
adjustment in all these numbers. It means that the
statisticians try to adjust for changing seasons and
employment patterns that have come to be expected.

So, if this April happened to be a little warmer in most parts
of
the country than April 1997, more people might have found
employment. Or maybe a natural disaster somewhere put a lot
of people who happened to be surveyed back to work
temporarily.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, there were 48,758
jobs cut by companies in April. And those are just the ones
that this research organization was able to count because the
companies made public announcements.

That was 2,216 job cuts per business day this April. How can
all these job cuts, and other cuts that can't be counted, be
increasing by such a great amount and Washington shows
the opposite trend?

The answer isn't as unimportant as people may think. Next
week Alan Greenspan will decide if rates need to be raised.

Let's hope Harmony doesn't follow in the tracks of Vronsky's gold cyclicality analysis!

"In 1997, there were over 50,000 Americans serving in United Nations military deployments somewhere in the world. In every case, their commanding officers signed an oath or a contract in which he agreed to disregard the national desires of ANY nation, including his own, serving instead the United Nations exclusively!"

The Soldiers of Baal

a favor. My eldest brother, who I have been trying to get out of the markets and into cash...well, today he calls and says that his broker told him that gold is going to get very cheap because the Russians are dumping gold into the market. Huge quantities. Don't buy gold.

Oris, if you could, what would you say to him about this subject...

Namaste'

Do you have any news for RANGY's future ?

Maybe someone big is buying. What do you think is the size of the sale, substantial ??

The plot thickens!

My brother suffers from delusions. His broker who knows nothing, said this to him and he treats it like Gospel truth...

This chart shows the use of an oscillator that usually mirrors market trend changes as it did in mid-year 1993. This oscillator sometime deviates from the market trend as it has since early 1997 ( going up while the market proceeded down ) . These deviations often serve as predictions on ultimate trend changes. The Gold market seems to be back in synce starting early 1998. ( Sorry that this chart is so big. First time to submit graphic file. )

Midas: I play strictly through gold mutual funds. Like Gabelli Gold and Lexington Stategic Investments.

Sorry,

I don't know anything about it except what I see on Kitco.

The Preacher

Thanks for your insightful & invaluable commentary Re the actual fabric of the market. As always it is valued by the Lurker corp, as well as the seasoned Kitco commentators.

IMHIPO, your speculation that AG & Co. will stand pat on the 19th is most certainly correct. This is bullish for Au & may present that propitious window for a spurt in POG to $325/335. This "non-action" will be a non-inspirational event to the S&P, but will prevent a real May correction from turning into a general route. I look for the S&P to fully recover & nip at 1130 moving into July & meander from there into a September/October debacle. At this point, only cash, preferably in Marks or Swiss FC, & Precious Physicals will be spared substantial devaluation.

The Indonesian melt down will toast what is left of any semblance of solvency of Nippon Banks & by the time the US "figures" demonstrate real inflation, interest rate catch up will have to be painfully dealt out in quantum leaps.

I think the point that

Everything is possible, but Russians do not have
a lot of gold to dump. If they dump, it's not a lot
and could be a very short-term problem. I have doubts
they dump gold, because they REALLY need to accumulate
more of it, which is contrary to selling it.

Even more, I am not aware of any extreme need for Russia
today to sell gold...for such low price.

Thanks for your insightful & invaluable commentary Re the actual fabric of the market. As always it is valued by the Lurker corp, as well as the seasoned Kitco commentators.

IMHIPO, your speculation that AG & Co. will stand pat on the 19th is most certainly correct. This is bullish for Au & may present that propitious window for a spurt in POG to $325/335. This "non-action" will be a non-inspirational event to the S&P, but will prevent a real May correction from turning into a general route. I look for the S&P to fully recover & nip at 1130 moving into July & meander from there into a September/October debacle. At this point, only cash, preferably in Marks or Swiss FC, & Precious Physicals will be spared substantial devaluation.

The Indonesian melt down will toast what is left of any semblance of solvency of Nippon Banks & by the time the US "figures" demonstrate real inflation, interest rate catch up will have to be painfully dealt out in quantum leaps.

I think the point that

I looked, not much on German, but I tried emailing for specs in English. I hope it went thru. You're right- cagey. Thanx, Charlie

And Goldman Sachs, not a public Co.

HighRise

SDRer: Thanks for the clarification. Is that Fayence gold coin more than a commemerative coin or bullion coin like our American Eagle gold bullion counterparts? I guess it will be very hard to tell if the EURO/gold bullion price is to be fixed. Unlikely that we would be allowed to know, if it were true.

Remind your brother of last weeks FALSE rumors concerning gold sales that brokers were trying to spread in order to keep gold from going up in the face of ever increasing world instability.

Why is what you post & what gets posted two different things ?

Oh well, deep cyber sigh. I guess those deep thoughts & spelling labors, while fighting off being unplugged by my cyber utility, AOL, are less than meaningless anyway !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

A large Cuervo Central gulp to the both of ya. Namaste'

I guess you should remind him of the fact that 300 gold is cheap.. ask him if he thinks 400 would be cheap? It would if Au were on it way to the moon. 300 is probly the mean average of production cost of gold? So in essence cheap.

Could you expand on the construction of this chart? It seems to have some mighty fine components. Thanx, Charlie

Prediction: Once a real and widely recognized gold bull market gets underway -- and we certainly7 are not there yet -- CB selling and lending will cease on a net basis to be replaced by CB net purchases. So just as CB selling exacerbated the gold bear, so will it add fuel to the looming gold bull.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1ym

Click on moving average if not shown on this chart.

HighRise

And a large gulp to ya...Namaste'

are about to converge in price - only ten dollars seperating them in the cash market.

Noticed the Russian market at new 52 week lows, wonder if the Yahoo range is really correct.

Notice too that CNBC has dropped the XAU. Hopefully its only a problem with their index calculator. I noticed earliy on in the day that it suddenly went nuts, maybe they pulled it then. OR its a conspiracy to keep investors in the dark.Given the unusual strenght in the XAU today I'm leaning on the conspiracy side.

I think Kitco's quotes are stuck too or there is very little activity this Friday.

Indochina Goldfields stock will explode...ING.TO - count on it...

of production cost. Question; Why couldn't the cost of production go lower ?

The June Gold is struggling to stay at or above 302. If it can stay over 302 today that will be very positive. XAU trying to pull it over but no luck so far.

Anybody aware of a site that has free realtime quote for cash SPX ?

T1,
What's going on with ING? I see it's up C$.16 on over 1 million shares traded.
But no press release

The Preacher

Let hi-ho prove it wrong........

------------------------

Sell July Silver 5/21 to 6/28 13 of 15 years 87%

------------------------

It was wrong twice and can be wrong again......OK

away.....to watch Plat reach the moon soon

astronaut

add mode. Thanks in advance.

Date: Fri May 15 1998 07:53
A.Goose ( ) ID#20135:
Copyright  1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Fri May 15 1998 07:38
Donald ( @A. Goose; The Fed drained at a time when Fed Funds were 1/16 ABOVE target. ) ID#26793:


****

Thanks Donald. Definitely the usdollar is under seige. I challenge ANYONE to tell me the last time the FED
removed removed usdollars from the market 7 days in a row ( 6 consective 2days out of market and removed
money yesterday ) .

There is some MAJOR structural seam that is snapping as we converse. The asian crisis is building, the tsunami (
spelling bad, sleepy here ) is building, they can feel the undertow and the wave is moving on wall street...

The FED must be desperate! What is happening to all securities bonds etc that they are giving people deals on to
get that excess MONEY out of the market??? I would think folks would just turn it around as fast as they can and
sell it to raise cash and get out of usdollar based instruments.


FOLKS, what happens when the FED continues in this mode????

uh huh. And it looks like Ted did the right thing selling his C$ at 7000 ( orso ) .....if he was here now He wouldn't be so kind I imagine. Good show TeddO!!

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi

Should we buy some more BP?? hmmmmmmmmmmm

away...to ponder the thought

uyingEngland

@1 7/64, 1.109375 arf, arf you dog.

You see it: PD more valuable than PT for the first time in history. I bet the genius that hedged alll most all of SWC's '98 production at $135 doesn't list his experience on his resume while pounding the pavement looking for a new job.

Oh yes for the last few years I was a mining guru.....

things heat up big money will jump all over ING...a great many people think they are a paper tiger, I say no...at these prices I am buying bunches of it, as well as OROP and TNX...I have been following all three and believe that they will be some of the top performers...but I am nuts...

My major holdings consist of RANGY, DROOY, GEO, CFB, FSR, TNX, OROP, ING, BEARX - we shall see what we shall see...gulp to ya...oh yeah, when the market gets hammered and the time is right I am going to bang RYG and PWN with as much cash as I can afford.

Namaste'

Robertson Stephens Contrarian Fd A ( RSCOX )


RYG Royal Group Technologies Ltd 22.75
MMG Metromedia International Group Inc 8.96
DBCA/ DUNDEE BANCORP INC 8.24
NVB Inco Ltd 6.35
CDRD CD Radio Inc 3.76
NORMANDY MINING 3.71
MXM Maxxam Inc 3.59
AVNT Avant Corp 3.47
ING/ INDOCHINA GOLDFIELDS LTD 3.00
N Inco Ltd 2.91

in his daily commentary said that there was a buy back of 300K ozs by an Australian mining company and smaller buy backs by some funds that caused the overnight rise in the POG. He said some traders expect POG to hit 310 today, which will be a 'wonderful' opportunity yo place new shorts. He said 'we' went short gold yesterday. The 'we' presumably is ML.

Gosh, I can't wait for this SOB to shut up.

info on some mines too.....

------------------

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554166838-792

------------------

can gold get moving?? hmmmmmmmmm.....what will be the impetus.....for it's impotence...........is there gold viagra?? Sharefin??

away...to the gold pharmacist



OLD GOLD - QUESTION: HOW CAN CBs CHANGE FROM GOLD SALES AND LEASES TO GOLD PURCHASES? DEMAND FOR GOLD EXCEEDED SUPPLY BE ESTIMATED 1,400 TONS LAST YEAR. IF CBs DECIDED NOT TO SELL OR LEASE MORE GOLD, WHERE WOULD THIS DEFICIT BE MADE UP LET ALONE PRODUCE ADDITIONAL GOLD FOR PURCHASE BY CBs?

That things are not as they appear, this board is well aware. However, on occasion, it is helpful to reiterate small truths.

1. The Potemkin Dollar--and the Asian flight to quality: a great deal of the dollars strength is a result of other strategies being worked, both in Europe ( where the Germans, for example, NEED the DEM to hold pretty much were it is against the dollar ) and in Asia where the dollars strength is helping firms meet YEN debt obligations.

Mr Strategy , Dr Kenichi Ohmae, one of Asia's best-known strategic thinkers in a AsiaWeek article pointed out,  Most Asian countries sell their products abroad in dollars. Over 90% of the international settlement of the trade of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore is in dollars.

But most Asian countries borrow in yen. Thus, although their receipts ( from exports ) are in dollars, they pay interest in yen.

This also means that when the yen was strong, Asian economies suffer - their incoming dollars lose value against their outgoing yen.

2. Dr. Strategy also remarked that, ...the US dollar's continued use as the world's most convenient currency ( in 1995 more than 60% of the greenback was used abroad ) , made it vulnerable to outside pressures.

"The danger is that, should circumstances give rise to selling pressure on the dollar, there would be a limit as to how far the US can defend the value of the dollar with only 40% or less ( in the US ) ," he said.

NJ, Merrill as a paper pusher has a vested interest in surpressing commodities in general, and gold in particular. Right or wrong, it's in their special interest, not those of their clients.



HB

TOKYO ( April 19 ) : Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammad is seeking a greater use of the yen as currency of settlement to avoid heavy reliance on the dollar, a Japanese newspaper said Tuesday. .......... In an interview in Kuala Lumpur with the Mainichi Shimbun, Mahathir said he had already ordered an increase in the ratio of the yen in the nation's foreign reserves.
http://www.brecorder.com/story/S0018/S1826/S1826138.htm

COMMENT: It is not unimportant that Mahathir Muhammad is the second most admired man in Asia ( #2 on AsiaWeeks 50 most powerful list, after Jiang )

10 proofs that the TITANIC was actually a derivative:
1 ) the downside was not immediately apparent
2 ) It went underwater rapidly despite assurances it was unsinkable
3 ) Only a few wealthy people got out in time
4 ) The structure appeared iron-clad
5 ) Nobody really understood the risk
6 ) The disaster happened overnight London time
7 ) Nobody spent any time monitoring the risk
8 ) People spent a lot trying to lift it out of the water
9 ) People who actually made money were not in original deal
10 ) Despite the disaster, people still went on other ships

Interesting article you posted...
"some trades believe that some Russian palladium
is making its way to Europe UNOFFICIALLY..."
You bet it's about time it should make its way...

KUALA LUMPUR: Financial developments in Europe, and to an extent
Asia, hold the key to the US dollar's strength in the long run and to its
continued role as an international currency, said a top official of a
Japan-based research foundation.

Yuichiro Nagatomi, chairman of the board of executive governors of the
Foundation for Advanced Information and Research, said the creation of
the single European currency, the euro, would lead to it being used for
settlement of trade within the continent, making the US dollar no longer
necessary there.

"Considering the size of the European single currency region, the birth of the euro will bring about a world of plural international currencies and make the US dollar more unstable," he said in a paper at the Asean
conference on Financial Initiatives for the 21st Century.
Nagatomi said that Asian countries, too, which in the past had pegged their currencies to the dollar, were in the process of converting their foreign exchange reserves into yen and deutschemark."

unable to give you any meaningful answers. Perhaps Donald could respond at some point. I am quite curious as to HOW MUCH ( in dollar terms ) has been drained from the system.
The following analogy may help to understand some of what is
happening here. Right now, there are some raging infernos ablaze in the world ( literally and figuratively ) . For the purpose of this posting, I am talking literally. Indonesian neighborhoods are ablaze and their problems are starting to spread rapidly to Indonesia's trading partners throughout S.E. Asia. Some of these "sparks" are starting to spread to Japan, Australia, Europe and, will ultimately, hit the US, where there is already a "blazing inferno" in the Dow. Now to my point, The Feds dare NOT increase interest rates ( that would be too transparent and obvious ) , so they are doing it by the backdoor by draining the system which means there will be less liquidity to go around at some point. I am not an economist ( I am self taught on many of these matters, but I think it is logical ) and therefore, the draining is tantamount to an interest rate increase, which means the Dow will "wobble" . Where it goes from there, I couldn't tell you. Your guess is as good as mine.
to go around.

Rangy not really tanking...ASK is still at 1 1/4. The dealer just decided he could lower his BID on the last sell order. Nice spread!
I must be in the wrong business.

Ray

I have known this was going on for a while, but I could never put my finger on the details. A great find. You can bet it is to the benefit of the cooking clintons et al and not to anyone else. Thanx, Charlie

John, if you care to respond and if not I understand, I am out of Harmony as of last week. Even though I failed to sell @$6 it was close enough for a huge percentage gain ( in my retirement account ) . Wish I had bought more@$3.

What think you now. I'm waiting for a pullback or a surge forward. Not talking more than 5,000- 10,000 shares but that's a bunch to me. I still don't trust the gold mining shares just yet. Read your latest article and understand your concerns that the perception will be such as to cause a sell off.

BTW I invest only based upon what I decide. Your THOUGHTS are simply more input data. I can and have been able to make my own mistakes and correct calls so don't think I'm asking because I will follow blindly. I did, however, appreciate your posts in Feb. and March regarding Durban Deep and Harmony.

Thanks in advance.

Tom

Here is the Investor's Business Daily's Mutual Funds Index chart.

I use it to see the general trend of the market. The index is now "squeezed" with a low relative strength to the SP500 and it is sitting on its 50d MVA.

With India/Pakistan tension and Indonesia disaster, we are probably going to go lower, real soon... rather than up.

Just IMHO.

http://members.aol.com/gaston2/may98/ibd51598.gif

Good luck

Gaston

Yes. The black-market boys must also be having the time of their lives over there. Ya' think they have some of that czar plat stuff? How else did it make it's way to Chicago? I dunno ( ? ) btw.....I need to pick up a few in-the-money Pickle Puts ( that's a funny one.....pickle-puts ) . I think the damnable Christ-Child will rear it's ugly head in the major cucumber growing regions, last years crop was thin enough........eh? Let us send pickles to the moon ( ! ) .

away...to w/w for the G7ers......looks as though the local-yocals are betting on the US$.....uh huh.



I have not been calculating the Fed reserve draining amounts. The best way to view that is weekly in Barron's, out tomorrow.

While taking my walk today I did wonder if the Fed is planning on tightening on May 19th. That could be the reason for Greenspan and Rubin meeting with Clinton last week. In anticipation of a sharp market decline they are stockpiling rescue dollars in case of an error which causes a drop greater than they wish and a resultant rescue. At that point they could inject reserves saying they had done their duty. Just a hunch.

that UN-official report is suspect to me. I think someone has not yet boarded the plat train. They don't want it to leave the station just yet. UH-UH.

Interesting thing....last year the big spike happened in first part of June....you know the one to 460. I am sooooo tempted to pick up a few more platties......naw. Greed will not bite my ass today.

away...to enjoy the show that will surely air.......and I ain't talkin about Shirley.



the beautiful woman who loved to work in her vegetable garden, but no matter what she did, she couldn't get her tomatoes to ripen. Admiring her neighbor's garden, which had beautiful bright red tomatoes, she went one day and inquired of him his secret.
"It's really quite simple," the old man explained. "Twice each day, in the morning and in the evening, I expose myself in front of the tomatoes and they turn red with embarrassment."
Desperate for the perfect garden, she tried his advice and proceeded to expose herself to her plants twice daily. Two weeks passed and her neighbor stopped by to check her progress.
"So", he asked, "Any luck with your tomatoes?"
"No", she replied excitedly... "But you should see the size of my cucumbers!"

I commiserate--it is a problem with which I have been dealing. In desperation, I did a currency profile, focus: doing global business requires currency diversification and outlined the four currencies in which the savvy investor should seek exposure ( one of the currencies was gold--and this was tied back to the BIS/GF and the high probability that the Yen would be pegged to the GF, supported by documentation of global business pegging to the GF..

This was deemed a sensible by the elder one, and diversification out of Tyrant Dollar accomplished. Small steps, but in the right direction. {:- )

short and long term temporal de-link with the DOW in progress.

Where is Camdessus, that financial criminal who is responsible for the Indonesian situation? As predicted here, his IMF scheme has led to the meldown in Indonesia, and worst is yet to come.
Korea may be next in line.
Where is this Camdessus COWARD now?
More power to the ordinary people of Indonesia.........

Palladium has crept above Platinum today, an incredible situation.
And Gold continues to be given away at 300.

You are a hell of a bird dog. I believe your thought is more than a hunch.
With recent history cf their lies, this is a most appropriate observation. Whether they go up or not, the method they use has been exposed. Thanx, Charlie

Euro an alternative to dollar for Asian borrowers


HONG KONG, May 15 ( AFP ) - The emergence of a euro market offers
an alternative for Asian borrowers, who have had experienced the
dangers of depending exclusively on the US dollar market for funds,
analysts say.
"The dollar market has been closed for a number of weeks to
Asian borrowers," said Mary Pieterse-Bloem, euro bond market
strategist at Paribas, the leader in "euro style" issues.
"The dollar market can be quite brutal once the situation turns
sour," Pieterse-Bloem said.
And when the dollar market was reopened to them, Asian borrowers
had to accept "very unfavorable terms", she said.
"In the future, there will be two markets," the Paribas
strategist said, adding that "the Latin Americans have already
discover this game" and turned to the euro when they found the
dollar market closed or access difficult.
As a zone, it would continue to generate a savings' surplus,
largely because of its ageing population, and it would be looking to
recycle those savings in the rest of the world.
"Euro is a substantial challenge to the dollar and the yen" in
as much as "people, not only central banks, want to diversify their
assets", Mortimer-Lee said.
"The dollar had the field to itself for 50 years as a reserve
currency", he said, adding he had little doubt the birth of the euro
"will make it more difficult for the US to borrow."
"US officials say they are not worried, and if I had a trillion
dollar debt on my back, I would say the same thing," Mortimer-Lee
said.
But at the same time, the existence of a strong and dynamic
European economy is in the interests of the United States, given
that Japan and the rest of Asia is in a parlous state.
"In term of global growth, the burden on the US was excessive",
he said.

Indonesian central bank halts all interbank transactions


JAKARTA, May 15 ( AFP ) - Bank Indonesia said on Friday that it
had halted all bank-clearing activities including foreign exchange
transactions as a result of the crisis in the country.
In a statement the central bank said it had suspended operations
Friday because "the situation in Jakarta has not made it possible
for most banks to participate in clearing, therefore it is arranged
that for Friday there will be no clearing."
The action effectively freezes local trading of the rupiah,
which crashed through 11,000 to the dollar on Thursday and was
quoted at 10,300 to 11,300 in Singapore Friday.

Japan's top economic planner warns credit crunch poses "serious problems"
TOKYO, May 15 ( AFP ) - Japan's top economic planner warned Friday
a credit crunch posed "serious problems" for the world's second
largest economy.
His comments came a day after figures showed bank lending last
month suffered its biggest fall for seven years, dropping 2.5
percent from last year.
Koji Omi, head of the Economic Planning Agency, said he was
still trying to assess the depth of a possible credit crunch in the
country.

Silver spot posting is acting up again.. ( I hope )
Gold +3.60. The Puppet Masters will pull the plug anytime now.

All: Just made my bets this AM that gold/gold equities are now going to head up for time. Liquid assets are now 30% Gold mutual funds, 5% energy, 5% defense, rest cash. Sold all computer investments. Do also have some ABX call options, and some PAASF stock for the silver play.

I think the anti-gold forces will have a hard time keeping a lid on things with the current rash of nuclear testing, and the planned demonstrations in Indonesia on the 20th of May. D.A.'s comments also support the end of deflationary events for a time -- and no US interest rate increases for at least two months. That will give us time for a nice quick gold rally - as it often is. I will leave the degree of the rally to the experts.

Just had a converstaion with a native Indian, who said that he understood the Indian position in favor of testing, because they did not have enough data to do all further testing by computer simulation. He did agree with me, however, that Pakistan would respond in kind. We both agreed that the 'new kid on the block' was really China, and India was not really worried about Pakistan. But -- if Pakistan sides with China and North Korea ....

We also agreed that sanctions against India might be counterproductive because a weakened India might not be a good thing with China next door. But we also agreed that the current events could eventually lead to undersireable consequences. Did you all know that India has the hydrogen bomb? News to me.

What a nice way to start the weekend ( if it holds ) . Gold 301.80, silver 5.68, Paltinum 406.50 and Palladium 409.50.

Date: Fri May 15 1998 12:43
Avalon ( A.Goose, your 12.05; You raise some very interesting questions but I am ) ID#254269:
Copyright  1998 Avalon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Thanks Avalon. Yes, I do believe they are trying to lower the numbers Usdollars in the open market in a less obvious way.

Date: Fri May 15 1998 12:33
SDRer__A ( Walking the circle-- ) ID#288157:


"The danger is that, should circumstances give rise to selling pressure on the dollar, there would be a limit as to how
far the US can defend the value of the dollar with only 40% or less ( in the US ) ," he said.


Quite a quote form Dr Kenichi Ohmae.



Date: Fri May 15 1998 13:11
Donald ( @Avalon, A. Goose ) ID#26793:



Thanks Donald. One thing for sure is that something VERY important is in the wind.


BBML

For T Young.
Harmony is still the mine with the
biggest potential for long term gain
growth in my opinion. You can read
the article on golden eagle for
background. I had super profits in it
as I bought before Christmas at less
than $2.20 equivalent and averaged out
at better than $5.5.
I did almost as well on Randfontein.
But Im afraid of the gold price at the
moment. ( althought it looks good
right now )
It seems to have lost momentum and the
mines seem to have gotten ahead of the
gold price. So Im going to maybe 2/3
cash. Holding dbn-deep preferred till
end May .. and still holding rangold.
Im selling off NorthamPlatinum and
Im starting to add another company that
Ill perhaps try to do a report on on the
golden eagle site.

It sure feels good for gold right now, doesn't it?

It's just that I took ANOTHER day off and youse guyz/galz are soooooo fun.

Now, has anyone been watching a BULL-FLAG forming in June Crude? Is it my imagination or should we/will we see a nice jump in Crude?? Donald is right ( amongst others ) ......something seems to be brewing....and it's not just my beer. This here Crude has been tweedle-deeing ( new word ) around for a while. We have seemed to hit bottom in crude along with gold. If they are to move in harmony - gold and crude - then what will, finally, be the impetus to get it going. There has been sooo much discussion here regarding this that I have become jaded and have lost focus. I don't know exactly what it is I am trying to say.....I just know we could be at some crossroads......but I think we have been at the crossroads for a time. There is no more vacancy at the hotels at these crossroads and some must now leave. Or will they build more hotels.... ( ???? ) HUH? I dunno....again.

-------------

Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the shadow

The lamb......began to follow the wolf in sheeps clothing.

While I see many hoof marks going in, I see none coming out. It is easier to get into the enemies toils than to get out again.

-----------------

ya gotta love that Aesop *cat*.

away....to glance over my shoulder at times



btw...there she goes!!!

http://www.monex.com/prices.html hit reload

demonstrations.

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/goldlive/index.html

Here's a bunch of stuff on the issue. Note that if India exploded 5 nukes, this means they have no shortage of them.

http://headlines.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/World/India

I guess for 24 hours anyway this trade is working. The gold market is acting very strong and so is ABX and PDG. bye

The main indicator is the overlay of a Williams Ultimate Oscillator. The over lines are moving averages and some somewhat parallel lines to indicate an average channel.

I think the oscillator is rather convincing evidence that the gold market trend has turned to UP around the first of 1998. Of course we could have a retest of the lows such as we had a retest of the highs around the end of 1993. And then, of course, there can be no assurance of the duration of the UP trend.

WLow

breaking the 400 barrier....did anyone hear the BOOM!!! ( ! )

Palladium is the impetus for Plat....as the great Lime-Dude has said MANY times........OK. The auto manufacturers are re-tooled. Thanks RJ for the clues.....who da man? ......you da man!

away...to feel the rush of wind......woooosh!



what a great day for the metals....the whites anyway ( big smile thingy )

good show Crystal B....yuk-yuk.

That's the page I'm using. The silver spot bounces down for a few updates and then back up. I'm sure there is a problem with the script.
BTW. It looks like they pulled the plug right on schedule again.

I posted my opinions going back almost a year that Japan was in much worse shape than anyone could imagine, but I never thought that they could get this bad. I read this latest B.W. article in a mall last night.
They are totally, irrevocably fu*ked. They are not coming back next year. I don't see their economy recovering in the next decade. They are far worse off than the U.S. was starting the last great depression.
Their debt is now estimated to be 250% of GDP.
Millions of them are making mortgage payments on houses that have decreased in value by 70%.
Beacause of the financial subterfuge, analysts are still trying to get a handle on the non-performing loans, & no matter how bad their forecasts, they have to keep revising them upwards.
They are caught in the worst liquidity trap in history & have the misfortune of such terrible demographics, that the situation is really hopeless.
On top of all this China is about to roll over. I really have a problem seeing the POG increase because of supply/demand, but as Cherokee is fond of saying, chaos & flux are in the air & there are bound to be accidents with derivatives etc. that could cause big spikes in POG over the next several years.
Have a nice day.

Donald: Interesting idea! I hope you are wrong. My two cents consists of the following: Fact Number one -- Japan has a liquidity crisis and is looking at the brink, so our excess dollar reserves are going to Japan. Fact number two -- the US dollar is still very strong ( probably overvalued ) so raising US interest rates will worsen the Japan, SEAsian, and possible South American situation. QED.

AG is not storing dollar reserves because they are all going to Japan in some form, and he cannot raise interest rates -- at least not until the Japan situation stabilizes, and the dollar drops on its own.

My intuitive guess is that AG would like the markets to swoon on their own without any help from him in the form of raising short - term rates. He may get his wish -- it all depends on how the US markets continue to react to the recent nuclear/SEAsia/Japan news.

One last question -- if all of those US assets are going to Japan, where is the real ( underline real ) money coming from?

Spudmaster -- Have you checked that Federal Debt page recently? I'm willing to bet it is up another 200 billion just in the last month or so. Where else could all that debt go?

Gold will rise dramatically when the short side of the paper gold game gets burned-bad. This has yet to occur. The shorts need to get past the June contract with spot around $300-$302 at the highest. If successful we will see the same action on the August contract.

What the shorts can not afford is spot to go to $305 or higher during the June contract. Oh, the problems for shorts in a rising gold market.

Expect another try to push spot to $295 during the June contract. Yes? IMHO

Tom

the feeling while it lasts..

For Oris ..
Palladium passes platinum ..
Do you believe this gold activity ??
.. Yesterday I shot a rubber headed
arrow at Aikido Man in a dark alley.
I Missed .. It was embarassing.. I
felt like a fool .. Aikido man just
smiled.

interest in the relationship between Aussie and US dollar. In March of 1997, Aussie Dollar was worth 80.03 U.S. cents. In January, it was worth
63.15 cents. ( a drop of about 25% ) . If an investor had sold A $100,000 in March and bought US dollars, he would have $80,000 US. If, in January, he converted that back into Aussie dollars, he would have A$128,000 or a
28% return in 9 months. There is big money in foreign exchange trading.
Right now, the US dollar is worth even more in New Zealand.
The point of my posting is that much of the deterioration in the Aussie
dollar is caused by the events in Asia.

It only takes about 2 minutes and it's free. It really is easy. I just tried it and saw my internet access speed increase by 3 to 4 times. I called a friend and had him try it on his new 400 MHz system and he said WOW!

For Windowns 95 users: apparently Microsoft did not set the default for the ( MTU - Maximum Transmission Unit ) to the appropriate speed for maximizing throughput of your Internet Access.

First back up your registry...just in case. Click on Start, click on Run, using regedit click on Registry on the top menu, export registry file ( this is your backup file of the registry ) .

Now you are ready to start...Still in regedit, use RegEdit's Find feature to search for MTU, press F3 to repeat the search until MTU shows up in the right pane ( it took 3 times for me ) . Once there, right click on MTU in the right pane, change the Base to decimal ( you should see the value 1500 show up ) change that value to 576. Then close the registry, reboot your system, and get ready to fly.

TRUST ME this little gem is worth it's weight in GOLD. You should have seen how much faster Kitco loaded.

( this fix came from PC World's June '98 issue, page 278 -- THANK YOU
PC World ) .

A Debt contract to be paid in Gold can only be paid in Gold.
Was the 1 or 2 % which the CB have been lending gold usuriously out upon to be repaid in Gold ? As in Babylon ?

To all.
Somebody ( cyclist?? ) said May 15 would
mark a market turn. I wrote in my diary.
Problem is he didnt say which way. So
Sinatra dies .. Palladium crosses platinum.
What else is gonna happen. Day aint over yet.

It is a little wheel and it takes a long time to get there. Gulp to ya and older brothers everywhere.

gold being s*at on ....when will this baby blow?

Most assuredly, Yes.

Tom

That gold is long gone my friend.

From Kiwis post--and NOT a minor point!

"US officials say they are not worried, and if I had a trillion dollar debt on my back, I would say the same thing," Mortimer-Lee said.

Yuichiro Nagatomi --
"Considering the size of the European single currency region, the birth of the euro will bring about a world of plural international currencies and make the US dollar more unstable," he said in a paper at the Asean
conference on Financial Initiatives for the 21st Century.
Nagatomi said that Asian countries, too, which in the past had pegged their currencies to the dollar, were in the process of converting their foreign exchange reserves into yen and deutschemark.

JTF@USD.flowing.to.Japan The trade deficit IS a major dilemna for both the USG and the Japanese. Japan is AWASH in USD! No more, thank you very much. {:- )

Chas.@Seeking.Info.from.European.mints No ONE would dream of mentioning
the word "censorship", but one can NOT obtain information from a
European mint re: gold coins if you ISP includes C.O.O. in your
address. You'll have to go through European contacts to get info!

Darn their Souls...

Kind of you to respond. Thank you.

Tom

Does this fix apply to Windows 3.1, i.e., older than Windows 95?


Thanks !

Either Bart has a typo or LGB ( Leeky ) and I, along with others are real happy.

Tom

mess with the registry, go here, it is MTU SPEED and is fully automatic, I use it and it is great. Namaste'

http://www.mjs.u-net.com/

Sorry newtron, only involves default settings in the Windows 95 Registry.

Jerry Favors said the market would have at least an intermediate top on may 15 +or- 1 day. Not only did Sinatra die, but Seinfeld is over. Greenspan's has a decision on Tuesday, and Soft is in major trouble with Uncle Sam. Pakistan is supposed to test nukes this weekend, and who knows what will happen in Indonesia. Alot of things happening right now. Favors might have made a good call.

A/D line pathetic. Trannies lagging. Speculative stocks taking off. Who knows?

What a great spike or typo on silver on a Friday close.

Tom

Tom

What is Namaste' ?

roughly 5.57 per oz. June Gold took a dip in the last half hour
and recovered somewhat. It looks to close at about 302.10
Fox-Man

Go Gold Go..

Thanks.

Tom

For those who don't want to mess with the registry, PC World also mentions downloading one of several great MTU presto-chang-o utilities available at htpp://www.fileworld.com

The one they say is the easiest to use and the one they recommend is PPP-Boost at: http://www.c3sys.demon.co.uk They say it is free and the interface takes no special skill to use ( others are also listed in the article ( again, page 278 PC World June '98 issue )

All: Here is a web site, updated daily. There is no evidence for a rapid rise in the debt over the last two months. Perhaps there is a big bolus in the pipeline somewhere waiting to get out.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

My Way

Writers: Revaux/Francois/Anka

And now, the end is near;

And so I face the final curtain.

My friend, I'll say it clear,

I'll state my case, of which I'm certain.

I've lived a life that's full.

I've traveled each and ev'ry highway;

But more, much more than this,

I did it my way.

Regrets, I've had a few;

But then again, too few to mention.

I did what I had to do

And saw it through without exemption.

I planned each charted course;

Each careful step along the byway,

But more, much more than this,

I did it my way.

Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew

When I bit off more than I could chew.

But through it all, when there was doubt,

I ate it up and spit it out.

I faced it all and I stood tall;

And did it my way.

I've loved, I've laughed and cried.

I've had my fill; my share of losing.

And now, as tears subside,

I find it all so amusing.

To think I did all that;

And may I say - not in a shy way,

"No, oh no not me,

I did it my way".

For what is a man, what has he got?

If not himself, then he has naught.

To say the things he truly feels;

And not the words of one who kneels.

The record shows I took the blows -

And did it my way!

http://www.mjs.u-net.com/
has a note specifically to AOL users
find it and read it

plus one US penny. It was as high as 6 or 9 pennies, no?

away...to count my pennies....for the dollars count themselves



Well it looks nice, anyway. Thanks

Tom

If Greenspan simply sops up liquidity and puts the sponge in his desk instead of doing something like adding it to the debt side of the ledger, who is any the wiser ?

But let me prove that I am really a NERD. Microsoft set the MTU for folks that have excellent telephone lines. Reducing the MTU setting wont make a huge improvement, unless someone has bad ( rural, old, or overcapacity ) telephone line that corrupts packets. If someone has an excellent line, reducing the MTU could result in slower loads.

Changing the MTU ( Maximum Transmission Unit ) won't make any difference to your actual connection speed, but it may improve downloads from certain sites. The size of a packet of information is limited to the smallest one that can be handled by any one link in a network. If the packet is too large then it will be fragmented, requiring retransmission, which slows your download. 1500 is usually used by service providers, but not always, so check with them first. 576 is often given as a magic number, but other figures can be equally useful.

Why does gold so often take at hit at 1:30? I thought it had shaken off that habit in the last week or so, and now it is back. It happens too often to be a coincidence. Fortunately, it closed strong. The situation looks good.

Investment results not guaranteed.

I am not at my mochine right now, helping a friend, will put up a link on Namaste' when I get home...

FWIW cyclical top is and has been today.Two week downturn
basing in that order.I expect fireworks first till second week
of June to the upside.Beware it is a trap.A real test coming
and a bottom at the end of July,This is the time to get on board
All the above is in my opinion .Have a nice day and happy trading

Message well taken. I guess its worth a try...if it doesn't show any improvement it's easy to change back. I am on MCI/Fidelity...in my case, it is was the difference between night and day. Day sure looks a lot better.

The person I called is on AOL, he didn't have any problems using the change Registry method and noticed an instant improvement.

OK Slavery is outlawed.
Somebody wanted to borrow gold. 8,000 tons of it ? And pay 1 or 2% GOLD INTEREST.
What was the collateral for the loan ?

Last message on the subject. The PC World article says that even Microsoft has admitted that the change is useful and has repaired the problem in Windows 98.

I'm thinking. I'm thinking.

mozel: I thought about that too. AG would if he could. I think the problem is that Japan wants something real instead of US dollars. So he must give them something. I know that will come out of our hides somewhere -- I just don't know where it is coming from. I think we are talking about at least $300 billion, so it can't come directly out the US annual budget, or BC and the Democrats would have a fit!

Did I not say that Silver was dirt-cheap? Yes, I beleive those were my words!! - Sorry, that's the little beast in me who comes out when I actaully make a good call. I will venture to say that Silver is still cheap - but not as cheap as it was yesterday! ha! yippee!! Now, do I take the short term profit or do I hold? After the rally this Friday, I think I better hold out 'til next week.
- c

A big portion of speculative trading is initiated nowadays by computer based technical programs.
The most advanced of these programs and discretionary traders take that into account.
Alot of sell or buy signals are generated by weekly or daily closing levels ( among other signals ) . These levels are used to compute different technical indicators which give trading signals.These indicators are such as :cross over of moving averages, RSI, MACD , stochatics, Fibonnaci series, and home made rules based on series of closings compared to previous closes .....
To sell the spot at end of day/week has a huge influence on these systems and might prevent them to send a buy signal at the opening monday.
CQFD

Future production AND the assets of the company. Read as rights to the ore.

Tom

OK The Federal Reserve Notes held as reserves by CB's around the world and held as deposits in US Banks and held in people's pockets are all Notes for Nothing.
So, if I collect Notes for Nothing out the banking system, what accounting rule makes me account for them ?
You don't have to account for Nothing or likewise for a Note for Nothing.
Whe AG injects liquidity he is just putting I.O.U. nothing on one side of the ledger, but you owe me credits entries against the receiving Banks books on the other side.

Favors just said he sold 50% of his "traders and something" position this Wednesday, and he said investors should be prepared to bail out as "top" may be nearing. Also, he said Dow must hold 8700 on any correction or it could be headed lower from there.

In other words, the Babylonian Farmer's Farm.

For somebody who says they have enough gold, it seems odd that they would want more gold as interest. Remember the law of payment and debt. You cnnot pay debt with debt. To own a gold mine, you need to pay for it in gold or collect on a gold debt owed by it.

is when Rubin routinely comes back from his lunchtime bowel movement, looks to see if the Dow is headed down the toilet, throws some $US toilet paper after it and slams the lid down on Gold to the sewer from backing up.

gurgle, gurgle, gurgle....vortex gold is coming to get you Bobby boy

bibbity-bobbity....BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

would you post the location of that article?
- c

Tis not "odd" at all, is it!
Tom

Not odd if you consider a miner a farmer of gold and the Central Bank as the temple of Baal.

If anyone has a link or further details to the following story, please post.

I recall the story I read a few years back, of an Italian national who owned and operated a restaurant in Florida. An IRS agent accused the man of skimming cash from the business and not declaring it as taxable revenue. The Italian man's restaurant was shut down, his bank accounts were frozen. In sum his livelihood was cut off by the IRS.

Now he did not have the means to even procure his own defense. So the next time he was confronted by the IRS agent he did what any reasonable man would do. He shot him.

I think the govt was trying to give him the chair.

Kind of makes you want to perform jury duty, doesn't it?

mozel; where have you been ? If you cannot make your interest payment to the bank, they will lend you more money to help you out. If you cannot make your credit card payment, just go to another friendly lender and get another one !

I think they cull the jury lists for employees of banks, insurance companies, hospitals ( subsidiaries of insurance companies ) , and government and "lose" everyone else.

A nation found on the Law of the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob cannot survive governed by the law from the temple of Baal.

Sequin: Interesting comment. Was today a triple witching day as well? My reasoning is that the end of the two year gold bear must be evident to anyone with a plastic ruler -- a la Nick@C. Also, I think APH pointed out that as soon as it is evident that the two year gold bear is over, alot of money would pile into gold. Add D.A.'s impression that the deflationary period in SEAsia is over, AG's reluctance to raise interest rates, and you have a really promising environment for a 2 month or so gold rally. I'm betting that the China devaluation does not occur until the fall, or that the negative effects of the China situation on Japan are being discounted now. No matter what happens, gold cannot go down very much more.

Also, I doubt that the US markets will take off with the crisis in Indonesia, the nuclear crisis, or the Middle East situation -- an ideal situation for gold/gold equities to rally. A silver rally would certainly help, although some of our excellent cycle analyists have predicted nothing in silver till the fall.

This riding of the Gold Bug Tsunami is hard work! I would be quite happy to lose money simply because a world-class diplomat can guarantee world peace and harmony for the millennium.

Gianni --I had the distinct pleasure of sharing a brief chat with Rob Halford last Saturday after he did what he does like few others can. He's as pleasant a chap as you could ever hope to meet out of Birmingham.

I guess you could say he's... good as gold!

But all you get is a discharge for satisfying an obligation. Debt cannot be paid with debt.

The Babylonian Farmer could never pay his debt in gold with clay tablets no matter how many he had.

How much gold does the US Government who and to whom ?

much more than the wealthy & the poor have much a higher % of their assets in AU. Although I don't think sanctions will be imposed, I lightened up a little today.

Maybe, that's why the govt wins something like 95% of all federal court cases.
What was that quote from "Alice in Wonderland"?..... I'll be the judge, jury......? Anyone?

but then, who's counting?

How much gold does the US Government owe and to whom ?

Gianni I think only registered voters are put on jury lists.
Which means only "artificial persons" sit on juries.
Which is why they can prosecute jurors for not staying within the lines.
They could not do that to a common law juror who was a man and not an "artificial person".

I see the US is joining Europe in withholding the 1-2 Billion of aid promised to Indonesia, if it carried out riot-provoking mandates. It should be obvious to everyone, the IMF isn't there to help, it's there for appropriation of the wealth and sovereignty of that nation.

Let's see the Fed decides whether to raise rates or not on the 19th. Massive riot is planned for the 20th in Indonesia, which would be some 12 hours later ( due to time zones ) . Something smells rotten.


Aragorn III, could you please tell us about Rob Halford. I don't know him.

OK, so if you suppose the CB were plotting to get gold mines out of this manufactured gold depression, what is that Rotschild guy doing calling for public auctions of gold by the European CB ?

Calling a bluff ?

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.22 The 50 day moving average is 29.58. A year ago the ratio was 20.99

XAU/Spot Ratio = .280 The 50 day moving average is .268. A year ago the ratio was .290

Hello JTF:
Your compassion is admirable, peace over gold, we agree.
But we hold gold because we know that they cannot gauranty anything.
Also the bigger the gauranty and outcome promised, the more likely they are
lying for some other self interest. JMO

Nicodemus,

Finding it harder to find the truth...

You know the IRS doesn't like to publicise cases like the one in my 16:05. I think the only reason I found out about it was because I read about it in the European-based "International Herald Tribune", and it involved a European national who might be executed by a foreign nation.

No, we are mostly shown images of people like Redd Foxx, Willie Nelson, or Leona Helmsley, and what happens to people when they don't do as they are told, and pay their taxes.

About Leona Helmsley, she and her husband and their companies probably paid something like $50 million in taxes in that year when they were raked across the coals for expensing out a family swimming pool. Where's the justice? I mean, it's gone mad.

For t young
glad you made some dough
for all
Cyclist is providing the best timing
advice Ive ever seen. Love to know
how he does it. Ignore him at your
extreme peril FWIW.

Someone sent me these two quatrains from Nostradamus. Apparently these were linked to the year 1998. ( I'm not a Nostradamus nut. Dont know any more about him than any other average person. )

First, this is suppose to predict the bomb in India "about May 10th".

Quatrain 83 - Century IX:
-------------------------------------
French:
Sol vingt de Taurus si fort de terre trembler,
Le grand theatre remply ruinera:
L'air, ciel & terre obscurcir & troubler,
Lors l'infidelle Dieu & saincts voguera.

English:
Sun twentieth of Taurus the earth will tremble very mightily,
It will ruin the great theater filled:
To darken and trouble air, sky and land,
Then the infidel will call upon God and saints.

Taurus ( 21 April - 21 May )
The Sun is in the 20th day of Taurus May ~11th.


Second, this is suppose to predict Slick Willies woes. ( I think Hillary has been putting too much Viagra in his Corn Flakes. )

Quatrain 8,14
French:
Le grand credit d'or, d'argent l'abondance
Fera aveugler par libide honneur
Sera cogneu d'adultere l'offense,
Qui parviendra  son grand deshonneur.

English:
The great credit of gold and abundance of silver
will cause honour to be blinded by lust;
the offence of the adulterer will become known,
who will come to his great dishonour.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.14 A year ago the ratio was 71.89

Back in April I commented on how 6000 years ago, with the invention of money, an individual could leave the tribe and strike out on his own by being successful in an occupation. Watching the newsreels from Indonesia it struck me that it is a failure of the money that is causing an almost instant reversion to hunting and gathering. What do they do when everything has been carted off?

Well, I know it sounds unsophisticated, but to me the temple in which you choose to worship matters a lot. I think the origin of all the demons in demoncracy is Baal. Usury. The getting of something for nothing.

I think the anti gold establishment
DREADS the idea of a auction. An
auction is the fairest of markets,
if there are enough bidders, and the
bidding is not rigged.
Should auctions begin, I believe
gold really would rise to $1000/oz and
the CBs would be in heavy sh!t.
Gold could become like Impresionist
Paintings at Sotherby's and Christie's.

AZX Vancouver having a breakout with huge volume.Interesting
Plat/Pal prospects in New Zealand.
With Rangy this stock holds terrific propects in price appreciation
This comes with the same caveat FWIW.Happy trading.

Do NOT use this site as your sole guide as to the the spot price. I feI read your jubilant post about the rise in silver and feal your pain as you realize that it didn't happen. Hopefully, you logged off shortly after for a weekend of revelry and celebration. I will join you with a few brew while I mull over the perverse meanderings of the PM markets today. You would think that sooner or later OUR team would be due for a few points.

I mailed Bart the graph of the closing silver spike. He may not be aware of the problem which has been going on for the last month or so.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980515/V000925-051598-idx.html

I guess a call for an auction is just ANOTHER way to say the price is too low. Too bad you never know who is in cahoots with whom.

That or part of the charade. The problem I see is that the "lent" out gold is gone. Tolerant1 has the same view. Does not make us correct but this is the only logical result of the lending. So, the CB's have nothing but claims on future production AND the gold mines themselves, as security. Worse yet, thousands of tons of gold are not in the vaults.

Perhaps if one views the THOUGHTS of ANOTHER on this subject another path of thought presents itself. What if the European CB's upon transfer of gold to the ECU ( sp? ) get a credit against the debt of the county in that county's currency. Maybe the real gold is not required or, if so, from future production or seizure of the mines by the ECU.

These questions I do not have answers for except that lending out gold for 1-2% is absurd from an economic standpoint UNLESS a future gain, of gigantic proportion, was the real reason for the lending. I have for months on end said gold is in short supply-we just don't know it yet. Also, I have said for months on end that derivatives will cause massive economic upheaval in the near future. Perhaps looking at the situation in this light just tells me that gold is short and that crunch time is near. Since none of us is privy to the true facts that's enough for me.

I will walk in the footsteps of my fellow Omahan-WB-and buy physical. Bet Soros and WB have gold also. Secrets of the CB's will be known in time, at least we here will be prepared.

Tom

How right you are. One day the people will learn the true meaning of usury again. 2% or 20%, the end result is the same. Maybe this new world order thing is to tap a new source of debt-free immigrants into "The System" of Baal.

I have a question:

It has been posted that the Fed can create money into existence by buying something "Usually a T-Bill".

Now, if the Fed wanted to buy the Dallas Cowboys, General Electric, or Monsanto. Could they not just write a check for it, and in turn create money into existence?

And if so, when the stock market starts tanking, will the unknowing masses clamor for the Fed or Treasury to buy up the nations industry against bogus Federal Reserve Notes, so as to prop up the market. The Fed will own all the industry it doesn't already own.

It will be the greatest "coup d'tat" never seen.

Your Subject line was the name of a song made popular long ago by singer/songwriter Rob Halford. Just assumed you knew...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/euro_to_be_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/bear_marke_1.html

The whole world inventory of gold increases, I think, at about 2% per year. 2% interest on gold loans for 8,000 tons of gold payable as gold interest would require what percentage of all of the annuanl gold production just to make interest payments ?

In usury little numbers mean a lot.

Are you familiar with the traditional way that some Islamic and Orthodox Jewish banks lend money? They don't charge interest, but rather charge a portion of the profits and have a schedule for principle repayment. Thus the bank becomes a partner in the business enterprise instead of an outside party. While the idea has ancient Talmudic anti-usury laws as a moral basis it actually distills down to good business practice in this secular age. IMHO

Almost funny if it wasn't sad...little people gonna get it first..then Yardeni want's another $100 Billion.

G8 urged to act to avoid millennium computer chaos
LONDON, May 15 ( Reuters ) - Leaders at the G8 summit this
weekend will discuss how to combat possible fallout from the
millennium computer bomb, and industry experts said on Friday
action is crucial if disaster is to be avoided.
World industry is now so reliant on computers that a rash of
failures could cause economic disruption. Some experts say this
could tip the world into recession or worse.
Millions of people dependent on state pensions, unemployment
payments and welfare could quickly find themselves without funds
if government computerised payment systems break down.
Public utilities providing power and water supplies are said
to be at risk if computers across the world crash at midnight on
December 31, 1999.
Governments have been slower than industry to address
problems with their own computers.
``Lots of governments talk about awareness, but the money
they are spending on their own IT systems is not nearly enough.
Britain is spending 100 million ( pounds ) on bug busters, but 700
million on the millennium dome. What are they taking more
seriously,'' said Nick Jones, analyst with U.S. high technology
consultancy Gartner Group.
The millennium dome is a huge, temporary structure being
built on the banks of the River Thames in London to celebrate
the turn of the century.
But Britain is considered by experts to be second only to
the U.S. in preparedness for computer bomb problems. Japan and
Germany are said to be laggards.
Simon Reeve, author of the book, ``The Millennium Bomb'' has
a more extreme view.
``Unless the G8 governments mobilise their work forces as if
for war, the dawn of the new millennium will herald an immediate
breakdown in global telecommunications and massive problems for
the Internet. Then we will see the cumulative effects of
business failures gradually taking their toll on the global
economy,'' Reeve said.
Edward Yardeni, chief economist at merchant bankers Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell, calls for more than just words from the
assembled G8 statesmen. In a recent article in the Wall Street
Journal Yardeni said there was a 60 percent chance of a
recession because of the computer bomb, with the possibility of
a depression.
Yardeni called for the formation of a Year 2000 Alliance
with funding of $100 billion.
Cap Gemini's Unwin believes that as well as general economic
disruption, the most vulnerable are at high risk.
``The world is heading for a dangerous place unless action
starts to happen. The sick, pensioners, the unemployed what can
they do if they can't physically be paid,'' Unwin said.
``This is where the greatest problem exists. The
infrastructure is far more severe for governments. They have
huge, complex computers which they've built up over the years.
Looking into to them for fixes is like going on an
archaeological dig,'' Unwin said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/u_s_m_2_mo_1.html

by my mental wrangling, the percentage of annual production required to service the gold loan facility would be a whopping 15% with no progress on the principle.

Got gold?

There have been a multitude of court cases that have hurt the
ideas demanded by thinking members of our forum. This one in
1939, which I have read several times, has always been painful.

I cannot imagine what your comments might be, but I'd enjoy.

http://www.law.vill.edu/fed-ct/Supreme/Flite/opinions/307US247.htm

Don't recall annual production for sure-think your answer is 7-10%.

Tom

G7 warns against inflation danger


BIRMINGHAM, England, May 15 ( AFP ) - The Group of Seven leading
industrial nations warned Friday against a possible resurgence of
inflation in the United States, Britain and Canada.
"In these countries, the task is to sustain growth while
standing ready to prevent any possible resurgence in inflationary
pressures and while increasing national savings in the US," the G7
heads of state and government said after a meeting here.
They met to discuss financial issues ahead of the G8 summit
here, in which Russia joins with Britain, Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan and the United States.

Baal is newer satisfied.
I think somebody should look and see if it is recorded whether or not Baal demanded human sacrifice.
Yes, issuing credit cards to the Chinese would bring new, debt free billions to Baal's temple.

The corporations are not capitalized. They are founded on debt. And the ultimate lender to whom the debt is owed is whom ?
So, in what sense are they not already owned by that lender ? When you have a debt claim, there is no reason to add to it a lesser equity claim on assets.

Yes I'm aware of it. Someday we will return to that kind of banking ( joint venture ) again, but it will be after the System of Baal breaks down and it's gonna be ugly.

I think my 17:32 post of May 13 mentioned that type of banking.

LONDON, May 15 ( AFP ) - Gold prices on the London Bullion Market
rose sharply early Friday, as violent social protest in Indonesia
intensified.
The price of an ounce of gold rose by 4.7 dollars in early trade
to 302.45 dollars.
A precious metals analyst at Fleming Global Mining trading
house, Tony Warwick-Ching, said: "Things like Indonesia drag in
investors, who are looking for some kind of haven."
He added that the market had also been ignited by rumours that
gold exports from the country would come to a halt soon.
"There are slightly alarming local reports of producers not
exporting anymore," the analyst said.
Indonesia was the seventh biggest gold producer in 1997, when
the country mined 101.4 tonnes of metal, according to Gold Fields
Mineral Services data.
Warwick-Ching predicted that continued social and political
instability in the country would cause gold prices to rise as high
as 305 or 310 dollars per ounce in coming sessions.

EB, you're a riot. AOL has silver closing at 557.2 up 1.2 cents and gold closing at 301.9 up 2.2 dollars on the nearest futures contracts. --AG

I was thinking a little higher.
But, what about compounding ? How many years did the gold loan program go on ?
I think they could easily be at or above 35% of annual production.

@Leland I'll get back on the court case. The more I think about being governed by worshippers of the false, wicked God Baal, the more sick I am to my stomach.

Thanks for the MTU tip. It should work if I ever decide to get W95. Let me give a tip in return, most applicable to Netscape 3.xx running on W3.1, but possibly beneficial to others. The caveat still applies for due diligence, etc. What works for me works for me and is not meant as an advice for others. IMHO

I was bothered by a molasses slow loading time after about fifteen or twenty minutes on the Net. I didn't find any obvious bugs, but noticed the disk drive would just go haywire and run with the machine locking up. So I looked up under netscape Options and found 'cache' under 'network preferences'. IMHO

Well, it turns out the default was set for an itty bitty 600 kilobytes for memory cache and 5000 kilobytes for disk caching. That is obviously set up for the old 4 meg RAM machines! Had I been running 8 MEG RAM I would have tried a lower value first but since I'm running 16 MEG RAM I boosted the memory cache to 6800k and set the disk cache as a big zero. So now I can download Kitco, listen to network radio, answer my mail and play freecell all at once without crashing my system! IMHO

Thanx for response. I am familiar with Williams stock measures. Is this Larry Williams- Williams Ultimate Oscillator? Could you refer me to the source or application of this oscillator? Many thanx, Charlie

Auctions are initiated by the seller. The desire to sell is first.
The bidders are attracted to an auction by the prospect of getting a bargain. Is'n that true?

Now think: the idea to auction away gold would mean that a seller is desperate to find a buyer and is willing to sell at any price.

Think about it and let me know if I'm wrong.

The idea was brought up by a Rothschild branche. They proposed to auction away all the gold holdings of the European CBs. I think that would cause a panic. The gold price would drop to $35 or something like that.
And the Rothschilds would be the buyers.
And maybe a few last kitcoites.

Alberich the Dwarf

If compounding is part of the "deal" the mining companies are kaput-finis-dead. There isn't that much gold mined in a year.

Tom

Watch FCX on the NYSE

-you put your money in the bank
and get it out when you need it
-if you loan from the bank when you profit the bank profits
when you you make a loss the bank gets nothing

-who needs interest?

western banking on loans
-you make a profit the bank collects interest
-you make a loss the bank collects interest
( see the problem the bank ALWAYS collects interest..this is wrong!

-many, many good businesses have been ruined by this usury
a farmer, builder, trader has a bad year and is foreclosed
before their time is ripe
-rampant currency speculation and enormous profits from money-changing are entirely symptomatic of usury ( actually it's in the Bible, you don't even have read the Koran )
-what is the true cost to western society of usurous banking practices?
could it be that UNEMPLOYMENT, CRIME, FAMILY BREAKDOWN, SOMETHING FOR SYNDROME are all artifacts of usurous banking....quite likely
-the house built on sand will not last the test of time the house built on stone will
-western society is built on the shifting sand of usury and unsound money.....give us back our HUMAN RIGHT to honest money
-it's the money stupid

I've been had - LAME!!
- c

Total world gold inventory 120 thousand tonnes
( Central banks hold about 30-35 thousand of those tonnes )

Annual world production ( mining ) is about 2%, or 2.4 thousand tonnes

Your figure of 8 thousand tonnes in loans subject to 2% interest gives 160 tonnes necessary for the annual interest *if the interest is INDEED paid in gold* I would not be surprised if the gold loan facility required the return of the principle gold and the interest is paid in cash at a rate determined by the cash value of the gold at the time of the loan. The banks never show this gold as having departed from their books, so I rather doubt that gold is used to settle the interest part of the account. To the bookkeepers, a gold loan provides what looks like cash coming from thin air ( which ironically is true, as we all know! )

I wish I could explore this line of thinking further with you, but the bartenders around here get surly if I don't make an appearance with a small fraction of my disposable income. Off...to drink some gold.

Kiwi...your 18:07 was a fine summary. I wish it could be printed on the backs of American cereal boxes. People read those during breakfast, you know...

got gold?

To any of those holding CNPGF ( arf, arf ) I e-mailed them and asked them to explain what "modest value" meant in their latest press release and guess what I actually got a response back...here it is:

Subject: CNPGF
Date: Fri, 15 May 1998 15:07:19 -0700
From: Karyn Bachert
To: havy@internetmci.com


If we are successful in concluding either of the transactions mentioned in the news release, the shareholders equity would not be "totally worthless".

"Modest value" can not be estimated until we conclude the transaction, but both propositions should present worthwhile long term prospects.

Sincerely,
Andrew F. B. Milligan
President & CEO

Nicodemus: I do not like making money this way, but we have to, don't we? One thing unusual about this site as we look at the hidden truths behind the news. If all human occupants of this planet could see the truth behind the lies or between the lines as we do: fiat currencies, xxxxgate, corruption, deception etc., we would not need to invest in such a contrarian manner.

I do not mean that the rest of the world needs our collective Kitco paranoia and distrust of authority/world leaders. In an ideal world where all lies are transparent, paranoia and distrust might very well be a thing of the past.

Let us hope that someday what is happening at this little site happens all over the world, and the liars, the conspirators and the self deceivers are seen for what they are. I doubt that contrarian investment will ever be a thing of the past, but the magnitude of this deception by the 'acquisitor' class must stop. And -- these cycles from wealth to poverty and back are a tremendous waste of human resources.

All I can say is the I hope we are getting better -- generation by generation -- and that eventually we will reach our destiny -- in the stars.

I must go and attempt to hit a small white orb with the Oracle of Oz ( wife ) at Mr. & Mrs. Goof. My only problem is that she is much better at this than I.

A mind is a terrible thing to waste-a least you did not so do. Keep thinking and pondering-for us all. Thanks.

Tom P.S. what if the Euro is backed or supported by not only gold but also silver? Think long and hard on this.Yes? bbmml

That's because it is IMHO the way that "People of the Book" honor their brotherhood. Nobody is trying to scalp another, but rather they are partners in business. The same principle is at work in several private, nonprofit 'inner city seed money capital' programs run by churches or other organizations in the US. It isn't talked about much, I would think because these folks don't advertise, but it is predicated on a sense of community that commercial bankers only pretend to have. IMHO

Now another little used idea is the concept of the Year of Jubilee. This is an ancient law requiring that debts are nullified confiscated property returned and economic/political prisoners freed on jubilee years. Again, it would further community interdependance and friendship, excluding the more harsh elements from any sort of permanent foothold. IMHO

Southeast Asia is on the verge of tanking. Indonesia probably will default on $58 billion in external obligations within 30 day.South Korea is NOT doing any better. Us banks stand to lose $10b, Japanese $24 b and European 24b. Commodities CRB index recorded a new low today. The dollar is very strong and a tremendous dollar shortages are developing worldwide. The dollar will decline only AFTER we had a market crash in the US. Gold is holding steady. Oil closed today at $14.47. Soon the unemployment in North America will rise as a results of declining companies profits, declining prices and a begining of a big depression. We may have seen the top in the Dow equities market. Have a nice weekend.

All: If all Indonesian gold production halts, how would this affect the price of gold? If we discount the hidden CB gold 'sale' effect, this might be significant.

At the very least, any of us who have bought shares of gold producers with significant holdings in Indonesia, beware!

CDE
Bibliograf@ Unin Europea
Servicio de consulta de novedades bibliogrficas
Julio / Septiembre 1996

16.231
BENASSY-QUERE, A
Potentialities and opportunities of the Euro as an international currency
ECONOMIC PAPERS, N 115 -july 1996-
1.The international role of major currencies since 1974 2.The use of internaional currencies as nominal and real anchors

3.The potential rele of the EURO AND OF THE YEN AS INTERNATIONAL ANCHORS
4.Cost and benefits from the Euro as an international currency
Documento de trabajo
http://www.uv.es/cde/bibliografia/biblio9603.html

COMMENT: It is not a new consideration; Asians are discussing it more openly, more vehemently, more determinedly for reasons that are obvious.

kiwi@Islamic.banking.is.common.sense
One hopes the sound of enthusiastic applause is reaching
your ears! {:- )

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554171687-ee7

away...to play some hoooops

allin'

Indonesia is a Muslim country.
Want to look at a beautiful gold coin?
Islamic.
Shutting down gold exports? Ahh!
There is a little refinery 18 km outside of Jakarta.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Delphi/6588/

Williams Ultimate Oscillator is part of TradeStation's library of Indicators. I think he may also have explained it in a book I read of his "The Money Tree" or an accompanying video. I am not qualified to explain it, but find it useful.

WLow

the worse it gets.

How many family "affairs" eg farms, little shops, tradesmen have been ruined by this?
Our system enforces money to follow highest return...just to keep up with inflation, so a big conglomerate farm, department store, chain service industry will always provide better "return" on the investment and the little family businesses can't compete with 20%, 30% returns....but why are they even in the same race? These small concerns bring in a profit but also they bind together society in such a way as to generate profits of the soul...something economists and accountants can never measure for all their skilled numeracy.

If a business is profitable...even if only in a small way then this is good, right? But our usurous sytem says no, this is not good enough, the little family concerns must generate as much profits ( most cases even more as the big companies get better rates on loaned money ) just to keep up the interest. In islamic banking any profits are good profits and shared...there is no reason for small community-binding concerns to compete with multi-nationals for capital.

This, I think, is the direct link to the degradation and break up of family concerns, rural communities and general societal decay. If you aren't working for a large corporation or a small company with aspirations to be one, then you must run twice as fast just to stay ahead. This is plain wrong and detrimental to human society.

An interest based system is evil and the western world has spent the best part of it's energies for the last 200 years cooking up all sorts of social models to paper over the root of the problem. We are being hearded into a amorphous blob of humanity by the need to form ever larger more efficient corporations to keep up with high rates of interest. But at what cost to our souls? How many millions live removed from their communities, their families and any sort of semblance of balanced social lives?

Could it be that the environmental destruction on our planet is also driven by these same interest based profit objectives...of course it is plain to see. Interest driven profit taking is unsustainable both societally and environmentally.

This foul, evil must be rooted out at the lowest level and hauled out into the glaring sun for all to see so that such mistakes should not be repeated by future generations.

Profit and prosperity is good,
interest and usury is inhumane.

There are 16 million Muslims in Europe. In Declaration of the 2nd European Muslim Summit, Weimar ( Germany ) , 29th of March 1998, they declared,The Muslims are like one body, if you hurt one part the rest will feel the pain.

One can not but wonder how they view the plight of their Indonesian brothers, and the West which watches and makes money and waits to make even more money.
http://www.unternehmen.com/IZ/hotnews.htm
bbml

I commented here a few months ago that I wouldn't touch a gold stock that had interests in Indonesia. As Paul Harvey would say "and now you know the rest of the story".

http://members.tripod.com/~wadcutter2/badday.mpg

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Israel could apply the commandments of the year of Jubilee to those living in Palestine and throughout the earth. This would mean the descendants of Joshua and of Caleb could recoup their land...Lev 27;24 '"In the Year of Jubilee the field shall return to him from whom it was bought, to the one who owned the land as a possession."Then all over the earth displaced peoples could return to their homes.

It would be fair play if the courts of Indonesia, South Korea et al used the exact argument in the Supreme Court case you posted at 17:36 to deny payments of their dollar denominated bonds and required payment in won or rupiah at the new exchange rate. Bet some folks here would not like it.

Kiwi: In his 19:01 post SDRer_A posted a URL not only to a beautiful coin but linking to an essay by an Islamic writer condemning Islamic banking as usurious as well. You might want to read this as it presents a cogent argument against even this form of bank as usurious. So, Islam is not at all megalithic and unanamous, just like Hinduism, Buddhism, Christianity and Judaism and every other religion and philosophy in the world. IMHO

Here is another link, you can get to from SDER_A's posted URL. It gives more detail about the gold coin. Well, I must go do family things.

http://www.netmatters.co.uk/users/murabitun/The_Islamic_Dinar.html

i appreciate this entry, mucho
it strikes at/addresses the heart of our 'ills/human-kind's unkindliness'
to ourselves/our own kin

we are all inter-connected ....
when we give-up our errant belief in the "i win as you loose" 'world-view' of perceived reality...
we will find that the only truth is....: "i win - as you win"

exploitation, of some, by others, often named as 'usury'....no matter if it is in the business board-room, or within the family's intimate house-hold chamber, the transgression is the same...the breach of "contract" is repeated once more....whether springing from fear, greed, or ignorance....it is all - "wolves in sheeps' clothing"....

Are we not our brother's/sister's keeper.....so-to-speak ?!

When we return to gold-defined/redeemable money and credit, on
the world-wide stage of civilization; we will evolve, eventually,
into the eclipse of/and triumph over... the exploitive/separating beliefs, and the usurious institutions, that hold us still... to
the bondage of a more ancient, barbarious time...

When we discover thru the metal of our muscle working
and thru our hearts singing
and thru our souls connecting,
that we are all in this together.....

Then, the sword will be turned into the plough-share
and there will be no more war
nor want

( if you wish to e-mail me:
essene@k-online.com
or
goldfever@k-online.com

thank-you for taking the time to read this

David Blair Macrory
( previously golfevr@pacbell.net )

IMHO the Jubilee idea would be well to implement in the US. Not only would I like to reclaim some of the lands lost to my Amerindian ancestors 160 years ago, land lost to my Confederate ancestors 130 years ago but the land lost to the bank in the great depression. Over half the property in my home state is held by multinational corporations and the federal government. And that is typical for the US. ( While we're at it I'd like an apology from President Clinton and monetary reimbursement and an affirmative action government research endowment. ) IMHO 8-^] )

But about Israel/Palestine, I don't have enough information to make a rational decision to mess with their private business, so will beg the question. From what I see the leaders on both sides are capable adult men and can make up their minds without busybody interfering from the US. IMHO

"All we ask is to be left alone."

--Jefferson Davis, 1861 --AG

I have no good reason to expect it, but I have the feeling that you may be on this weekend. If so, many of us would appreciape your thoughts on where the euro stands now in the eyes of oil. thank you.

For those of you that are having a hard time visualizing all the Doom and Gloom stories, go to the site below and you can LOOK DOWN and SEE the world burning.

http://oses1.wwb.noaa.gov/

your responses are encouraging

i'm not religious but i love humanity religiously

it seems to me that interest free banking ( islamic? ) is in the true interests of humans.

humanitarianism over capitalism and communism

how do we go about getting honest money on the list of human rights?

keep the faith guardians of honest money....see ya

spelling error

Yes. {:- )

Foreign currencies are depreciating every day, and I see the
precedent in place to do exactly as you describe, i.e., repayment
by a legal tender pegged to the U.S. dollar as of the date of
contract. For those contracts entered into in foreign lands,
foreign courts would prevail.

I never yet got a bargain at an auction. Did you? Usually the sellers make a killing. Look at these computer auctions on the Web. Pentium II bidding starts at $220! Yeah, right. Once you click on the URL you discover that the price is up to $1200 and rising.

Can anyone verify the closing price of silver on Kitco screen ? Is 6.565 the correct price ? Monex says 5.56 ???

I hope Bart is right....

To all:

I'm long gold and gold stocks at this point. We got some decent follow-through in gold today, but the XAU finished quite weakly.
There is a gap on the gold chart from $300.00 to $300.80. It wouldn't surprise me to see that filled early in the week. But overall, what I'm looking at is the uptrend line from January that has successfully held a test in both gold and the XAU.

Bema Gold was a leader in the March rally. It has turned up nicely this time.
Barrick was strong today.
Homestake had another good day.
And others were joining the parade higher as well.
OTOH, several of the seniors didn't budge or were even down today, most noticeably, Hecla Mining.

I turned, if you recall, bearish when I thought gold had peaked and came out with a post titled "The Ugly Truth." Now I'm bullish and think gold has a good shot at surpassing its April high and an outside shot at making a run at the Oct' 97 high of $337.50..

On the fundamental side, it looks to me like for the first time, Asian problems are causing investors to flee INTO gold instead of AWAY FROM it.

I realize there are now others on this forum whose work tells them that down is the next direction. This is what makes a market. We'll see soon enough.

Canadian markets are closed Monday. All eyes will be on the COMEX and the American producers.

The silver rally died. I don't think the metal is terminal, though. It's playin' with you. I think silver has bottomed; it will make its move when least expected. And after this afternoon's disappointing finish. I think it's least expected now.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

PS -- North American Palladium has made a comeback; it closed at C$2.95 today. this is just 5 cents shy of its peak before the announcement that it lost C$70 million last year was made. The future is bright for this company; I continue to believe it.

Gusto Oro -- Are you Alan Greenspan?

All: There are three items worth reading.

1 ) 'Chinese Delivery', by Bill Gertz. Accelerated technology transfer by American interests to ensure that cheap Chinese 'Long March' missles could reliably launch American Satellites for savings of hundreds of millions of dollars. The problem: these 'Long March' missles are essentially identical to the nuclear ones, so we ( the US interests ) just advanced Chinese nuclear missle technology a decade or so. And those missles are aimed at us.

This was from an article by Bill Gertz in the National Review. Bill Gertz is the defense and national safety correspondent for the Washington Times.

Now if you were an Indian, what would you think ( or do ) if you found out about this? A: Modernize your nuclear program, and convince China you have a deterrent by detonating 5 nuclear weapons. As far as I am concerned, this is treason. Perhaps BC should impose those sanctions on himself, instead of India.

2 ) 'Blame the US for India's Nukes', by Micheal Ledeen, Wall Street Journal 5/15/98. Since 1995, we ( the US ) liberalized our nuclear policy, allowing India access to the technology that enabled them to develop newer nuclear weapons. The US interests ( with BC's Blessing ) also gave Beijing access to advanced machine tools, supercomputers, nuclear test simulation software,etc. permitting China to modernize its nuclear weapons.

And, I'm pretty sure that India has the hydrogen bomb as well. Can you blame them?

3 ) Drudge Report, 5/14/98. Johnny Chung bomshell on page one above the fold of this Friday's New York Times, by Jeff Gerth. In a nutshell, Chinese Communist leaders made illegal contributions to the Democratic party. What is new about this is that Jeff Gerth has two inside sources within the Justice department in coming up with this story: David Johnston, and Don Van Natta. As MD states, 'the sound of Pulitzer is ringing in the air all week at the TIMES Washington Bureau.'

My assessment is that the Communist Chinese were supporting BC's election, and in return they got the technology they needed for their unreliable missles. Why pay spies when you can pay the president?

Of course, I have only a hunch to come up with this conclusion, but read the rest of the article and come up with your own conclusions. I think this is why BC is strangely quiet these days -- it is not Monicagate that he is worried about. He is history if members of the Justice department would release something like this.

sorry

Next week Barrick buys RYO. Got that? ABX buys RYO. Spread it! Warning... this is an overactive imagination at work. do not take this seriously.

Please disregard my former post. I was just kidding around.

All: If China and India have just upgraded their missles, thanks to access to US technology, will that earn our loyalty from the Japanese, who have accepted our nuclear umbrella for decades? How about Taiwan? Are there any countries in SEAsia that benefit from the events that have just unfolded, except China? But China is still a Communist country, and has no real long-term loyalty to us, beside a business one. My opinion is that whatever damage has been done by the IMF is being compounded by our 'open door' nuclear policy with China.

I am still shaking my head about all of this -- we ( certain US interests ) are responsible for a significant step forward to a potential nuclear holocaust. This is much worse than messing with the dollar and inflating it. Or excessive taxation. And the Clinton administration professes to be in favor of peace. I'm sure the Palestinians and the Israeli's know this too -- no wonder the peace baton has been passed to England.

I did not realize how quickly any one president could damage our reputation all over the world. What ever you say about George Bush, he did nothing like this -- or Ronald Reagan. I would need mozel to tell me what past president sold us ( and the world ) down the river like this.

It's friday and I thought I would pontificate for a change instead of light non -controversial exchanges about nothing. I think Gold is a good investment but the investment world doesn't . Who is right? The winner is always right. Right now I am not a winner... my wife thinks I'm a weiner...because she just buys mutual funds that investment people tell her to and she wins. Well who's crying now? Whiner! Every dog has his day... unless he gets rabies and goes insane and the ...well who knows and where was I? Oh yes Go gold?

Ahab.

What is the URL for Drudge Report? Thanks in advance.

Markets are open and trading this Saturday AM in Korea. Down 1.86%

http://www.drudgereport.com/

All: For those who have not seen this site -- BC's nemesis.

http://www.drudgereport.com/

See you all later -- I need to exercise for a while before I blow a gasket. It takes a while for me to calm down when I read about things such as this. With one swift action, we have made a significant step toward nuclear holocaust. Who needs enemies when members of our own government conspire to give a foreign power nearly free access to our nuclear technology? And, gold is of no value when it is radioactive.

Who needs the Antichrist when we can do this to ourselves?

http://www.ottawacitizen.com:80/business/980515/1712672.html

I've calmed down a bit. Logging off to help the 'real boss' post our state income taxes. Have to find an open post office at this late hour.

Actually yes. I did get some bargains at auctions. I like the atmosphere at auctions and I'm sorry I don't have more time to attend auctions.

However, when I think of these big international art auctions, maybe you are right. Maybe it would be worth to give it a shot with gold.

But what if it goes wrong? It's pretty much a question of how such an auction gets advertised. I'm very sceptical if the right people with the right mindset would prepare for an international gold auction.

I remain very scptical. I'm afraid it would kill the idea of gold backing a currency. Wouldn't the EURO become a kind of a joke, provided the EURO would be significantly backed by gold, if gold is exposed to the outcome of an auction, which, let's assume, would be advertised as a selloff?

These are just my sceptical thoughts. Maybe I'm completely wrong on that one. Maybe it could have exactly the opposite effect and gold would take off like mad.

The more I think about it the more I must admit, that I can't predict it at all.

Maybe there are some more opinions on this one out there.

If the Rothschilds propose something like that, kitconites should take it serious.

Albeerich the Dwarf

Thanks, Donald and JTF.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
Could this be what is causing the unrest throughout Asia?
Symptomatic response?

Perhaps this weeks action helped clear up the crystal ball a bit. Warning - I have plotted the spot closings as the last data points ( after the Friday London closings ) .

Gold - If I ignore the January low, the price action since then fits a very narrow, but nicely upward-trending channel. The drop to 296 hits the bottom of this channel. However, I think this is deceptive. The channel width of gold in the past has been much wider. This implies that we will see this channel widened at some point. One possibility is a break through the bottom, hopefully stopping when the channel width includes the January low. This seems not unlikely to me.

Silver - Although I don't care for the downward-trending channel, the recent low allows a pretty decent channel to be constructed. The closing spot price shows silver breaking back towards the channel bottom. This may or may not be confirmed by Monday's London fix.

Platinum - By including the absolute low last December in the channel, it is possible to construct a new upward-trending channel that contains platinum's price action. Its a bit of a stretch. However, despite PL's recent jump, it still seems quite anemic to me. There is absolutely no reason I can think of why PL should not have soared to a new high following PA up. In fact, at its current level, it is barely touching the top of the steeply downward-trending channel I had previously drawn. As PA backs off from its high, it seems to me that PL will back off as well. I'm going to stay on the sidelines awhile longer ( and will probably regret it ) .

Palladium - RJ was right about this one! Too bad it is too expensive to play.

http://cnnfn.com:80/markets/wires/9805/15/palladium_wg/

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/may15_royaloak.html

http://www.iht.com:80/IHT/TODAY/FRI/FIN/gold.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980515/bema_gold__1.html

However, total supply from mine output, scrap, net central bank selling
and gold loans was about 4200 tons which explains the price decline.
Without the central bank dishoarding, the supply gap would be about
1,000 tons.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/05/15/financial_news/russiamar_1.html

Regarding production statistics at Norilsk:

Baron's reported last year that scrap reclamation and small amounts of production from other mines on the peninsula were being included in Norilsk totals. This cooking of the books has been going on for some time. All reports from non-Russian sources indicate that Norilsk is operating at 25% efficiency and the ore is drastically depleted. Only the Russians say all is OK.

Seems palladium has a ways to go, yes?

When children are caught with their "hand" in the cookie jar before dinner, a concerned parent can correct the problem by applying a stern look of concern or a swat on the posterior of the offender. In this case the stern look is not forthcoming nor is the swat. What will it take for the PATRIOTIC CITIZENRY to wake up from its' slumber, more secrets sold for mere campaign donations, more commercial bribery to sit in airplane seats, or possibly the ultimate smoking gun, a video of Slick actually with his hand on the cash. The problem with hard evidence is that you wind up dead like the mechanic in Arkansas.
It seems that the Clinton mob is gathering the spoils of their labors in preparation of a hasty exit to the hills of Arkansas to await a pardon from Gore.

What do you think of the trader who seemed shocked at reports of physical gold scarcity?

The close today was extremely weak. Right up until the last ten minutes everything was flying, then all hopes were dashed and shattered in a heated and frenzied sell off that left us all exhausted and disoriented. ( pardon me, I am feeling a bit dramatic this eve ) .

Anyways. This bodes not well for S and G. But DJ does still not see the fundamental reasons platinum must rise. A channel cannot be constructed that will tell you anything about a market in fundamental shortage. The potential for an explosive move is all there.

Yes

What are you referring to?

As for scarcity of gold, you know my views.

Point all ten fingers in ten different directions

All will be pointing at enormous hordes of gold

There is no scarcity

Huh uh

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980514/derivative_1.html

Once again: Consumption is Consuming.

Gold reported as consumed

That went into make up bullion coins

So that more gold may be hoarded

IS NOT CONSUMPTION!!!!!!

Calling it thus

Is disingenuous and an outright lie

Yes

Indeedy

My post at 21:21 says that the shipment halt from Aurora mine in Indonesia was solely responsible for the gold run-up overnight. That seems to indicate that there is a shortage of physical gold. The trader commented that he had never seen that before in his years in the business.

When every thing is said and done it is like playing poker. Right now you have the hot hand. Your "Market Comments" have been closer to right on than anything I have picked up on the web. I hope you are right because I am heavily invested in gold funds. I hope you are right because I like to see SOMEONE be right. I hopw you are right because I think the whole house of cards is built on a fondation of quicksand. Most of all I hope you are right because it would be exciting to see a change of direction in the market. Keep up the good work and post regularly. I watch for your "Comments" every night.

People will forgive their leaders much ( after all they aren't human as you and I would judge ) so long as the jellyroll continues. Indonesia and the US are current examples. ( And about 30 others I won't bore you with. ) When the worm turns ( economy or market tanks ) they'll be strung from the treetops like Mussolini in 1943.

Donald ( Russia raises interest rates to 40% on 30 day money. Stocks drop 15% for week. )

What I find particularly amusing is that someone one these very pages reported that Russia bought mucho gold. If I may borrow from Eldo, "HAR".

Russia is a gold producer. You need dollars to by gold. Russia is broke. From where the dollars? The reality is that Russia has sold its reserves to raise cash. Their mining infrastructure is broken down. A gaggle of Finlands would not begin to improve this picture. Only massive amounts of western $ will help. These $ are not forthcoming.

Yes

Over the day I told several of my customers - intelligent people who are usually politically involved at least locally - about Y2K. Except for the my bank's president, the rest knew little or nothing!
My small locally owned community bank assures me they have their system Y2K compliant now or very soon. Not to worry about getting money from THEIR ATM. {We shall see} The competition bank across the street who are part of a interstate chain - they may be another matter.

You state....
"The close today was extremely weak. Right up until the last
ten minutes everything was flying, then all hopes were
dashed and shattered in a heated and frenzied sell off"

A small correction to this..Gold headed down at 13:32 after jumping from up 2.80 to up 3.60. By 13:59 it was up only 1.70.

I agree with you that it was disheartening, but it sure did not come as a surprise. GoldBugs seem to get their heads smacked severely as soon as they stick them out of their holes. They have learned to retreat quickly.

The law case of the Railroad Bonds secured with Trust Mortgage

1. Bankruptcy Case

Bankruptcy Court is not an Article III Court. Constitution does not control. Acts of Congress alone control.

1. IN DETERMINING THE NATURE OF THE OBLIGATION, BONDS AND MORTGAGE
MUST BE CONSTRUED TOGETHER. P. 253.

2. THE BONDS AND MORTGAGE ARE DOMESTIC OBLIGATIONS, TO BE
INTERPRETED AND ENFORCED ACCORDING TO THE LAW OF THIS COUNTRY. P.
254.

3. THE BONDS ARE OBLIGATIONS "PAYABLE IN MONEY OF THE UNITED
STATES," WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE JOINT RESOLUTION OF JUNE 5, 1933,
AND UNDER THAT RESOLUTION, ARE PAYABLE DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR IN PRESENT
LEGAL TENDER. P. 256.

Notice the language: the bonds are not paid. They are stated to be obligations which are discharged. You know right there that this court is talking bankruptcy language. Payable is tricky language. An obligation may be payable in eggs.

SINCE THE PARTIES AGREE THAT THE TERMS OF THE BONDS GRANTED HOLDERS
AN OPTION TO ELECT PAYMENT IN GUILDERS, WE MUST DETERMINE WHETHER,
DESPITE THIS OPTION, THE JOINT RESOLUTION OPERATED TO MAKE THE BONDS
DISCHARGEABLE IN CURRENT UNITED STATES LEGAL TENDER - A DOLLAR OF LEGAL
TENDER TO BE REPAID FOR EVERY DOLLAR BORROWED.

Everything thereafter is controlled by the fact this is Railroad Bonds ( Federal Corporation ? ) in a federal bankruptcy court proceeding. Congress can make any rule it likes for a federally chartered corporation because it is a creature of Congress, was created by and exists to serve the public good ( public policy ) as expressed by Congress. Congress also has the power to make uniform rules for bankruptcy. Was the joint resolution on legal tender made pursuant to the power to make uniform rules in bankruptcy ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980515/ny_buffett_1.html

Sorry Donald, I read the palladium part and skipped the gold part. For group edification the quote is:

Brokers GNI said in a report that gold appeared to jump on the Aurora news. "In all our years of looking at the gold market, this is the first time that that we have seen an apparent gold price jump because of a supply shortage," GNI said.

Donald, this is a shortage do to civil unrest and cessation of shipments. This means there is a shortage in Indonesia. There are still massive amounts of gold - more than at any time in history - everywhere you point. It is sad the Indonesians cannot get gold now, but the rest of the world is awash.

It is

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/imf_lendin_1.html

Your calls on PGM's have been THE path for metals buyers. Not to mention the calls on Au and Ag. I was persuaded by some of the silverfish on this forum to do a load of Ag. I was so darned happy that I got it a week ago at 6.10 delivered. It's not quite so shiny this week, and it's not even here yet. ( I was warned, here, though ) .
I am a hardcore goldbug, as far as a sustainable monetary system is concerned. Ideally there is no room for Bimetallism.
It's really becoming obvious who the experts are on this forum. I do point to you as a real smart fellow.
APH, Cyclist, Preacher--- These are some of the fellows that any of you newguys/gals should heed on PM's and stock.

had to dump under $300 to fake out the boyz ( and the $297 crowd! ) . Gold always just takes out the ugliest number you can think of as in 1982, 1985, 1993.

Actually Kiwi, that particularly fractured sentence of mine referred more to silver.

A flock of brokers gathered around the price screens to watch silvers gains evaporate. Tis a scene most often viewed on a Friday and always a grim sight.

Your assessment of this puzzle is well noted. To the deep thinkers of this forum, I present these questions. What will we, as physical gold holders, be able to acquire if and when the 'stuff' hits the fan? Will there be years of nothingness to follow this meltdown, as the Y2K problem takes its' toll? Will we be able to hold off the USG and the
unsuspecting populace? If oil goes to unlimited $/bbl, what good is it to have oil investments, when no one can afford to buy it?
Would it be wise to gather ones' family and loved ones and migrate to nowhere for an indefinite time?
These are dire questions, and to ponder them long would be non-productive, but they still linger in the depths.

Thanks...

I agree with you about APH and Preacher, I have not followed Cyclist posts but I will begin to do so.

May I add to the list, Oldman ( when he deigns to post ) , Mike Sheller ( astrology aside, his record is good and his TA is well grounded ) , and especially, D.A. who has the clearest vision of any goldbug I have ever seen. These are good folks to follow.

Yes

Despite negative technical data,



... accumulate physical gold.

wrong again - it's kitkat
still alive, not extinct, perhaps endangered

It was my spell checker

It read Kitkat

As Kiwi

Yyyyyyeess?

So, it is as before.
Do you forsee a time when it will not be as before?
Do you entertain the slightest notion that the governments of the "Global Community" will ever pay their debts?
I cannot forsee any eventuality, save selling some of the vast USG holdings of land, that will make the slightest difference in our progeny's debt. That won't be done. Soon it will be NAB.
So, ASB the dopes will buy; enrich the CB's, the shorts, and the NWO types.
I am sure that you look upon hard money rubes as us, as a quaint faction, dedicated to looseing Federal Reserve Notes.
The problem with us is, we actually believe in the Jeffersonian ideals of government. We took that crap seriously.
Why not look at the character and motives of the people that post here?
Whether or not you respect their intellect, you might admit that these people are the type that you might trust implicitly in a snap-judgement business dealing. -- Where else can you find a group as this?

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/w/AP-Fund-Raising-Chung.html
Mozel, perhaps you would like to field this question.
- c

Winston -

And the vast majority of those have never even seen an ounce of gold as most on this earth are poor or live at standards far below our own.

Of those with enough wealth ( fiat ) to buy gold, the vast majority are increasingly happy with numbers on their bank statement. The "must hold gold" sentiment is going the way of the Dodo. More gold is accumulated every year. Less people believe in it. History is proving this. Most of what appears on these pages supports my arguments; at least when the emotional gold lens is removed and gold is viewed without bias.

Tis true

Indeedy

Your thoughts struck a chord of truth and wisdom. Thanks.

Hasn't there always been surplus gold stockpiles?
Yet the price still goes up or down.

Is it not;
The perception of it's value
That sets the price
Regardless of supply?

Australia is awash with wine, and yet the price still rises.

I lived through the "great cultural revolution" of the 1960's and 70's in

San Francisco. ( Also I escaped a few hangings and shootings elsewhere. ) My advice is to live somewhere be it city or country where you and your neighbors know each other to the extent that you look out for and would help each other in bad times. Don't have to be social friends but just like-minded in the sense of community protection. Not a commune or socialist enclave by any means, God forbid, just a place you know and where you are known. A place you could travel blindfolded. Could be suburban, urban or country. Doesn't even have to be spelled out or organized. You just know. They know. Not freaks. Just people. Probably where you already live.

My goodness, that is benign stuff! Some of the asset backed securities really take ones breath away! Try securities whose asset backing is the income stream of a rock-star [quite true]; now build an efficient pricing model for those securities. THAT is creative financing! {:- ) )

O.K., what's your conception of a stable currency? Can you point to one post gold standard currency that will allow sales of 30/50 year bonds?
I tend to agree that gold is a dead issue, though I cannot trust any emissions of governments for thirty years.

Have you not ever been to an Indian peasant wedding? Gold is in all the dowries.

The curtain of gold
Will be so bold
To wipe out the black
Of the "Fiat" mold

Do not despair
Or lose your hair
The value of gold
Will erupt and ensnare.

I've been watching our Atlanta Braves beat the Houston Astros. But I always come back to catch up on the Kitco action.

I enjoy posting on Kitco, if for no other reason, it forces me to do the work I should do on the markets. I went long Bema Gold on Wednesday and Arizona Star today because they should move higher with the price of gold. So, I hope I'm right, too.

I'm thinking about gold's fundamentals. There has been talk of a gold shortage versus no gold shortage. It seems to me that when viewed as a commodity, or an adornment, there is certainly no shortage of gold. But when viewed as money, there is a huge shortage.

By this I mean that with all the perceived wealth in the world, if we come to the point that this "wealth" is forced to be backed by gold, then, I guess there won't be a shortage of gold, but the gold in existence must be revalued at a much higher price, which would have the same effect as a shortage. ( I'm thinking through this as I write it. )

In looking at the Indian situation, I am amazed India would defy the West so abruptly and outlandishly. There's a lot at stake for them. Evidently, testing the nukes was perceived in India as more important than participation in the NWO. This doesn't bode well for the NWO, I'd say. And the peace and stability of the NWO has been a major factor in the decline in the POG.

Ever since the U.S. defeated Iraq and the NWO was instituted, the world with one superpower has witnessed hard times for gold and the greatest times ever seen for paper. To tear at the fabric of the NWO, is to undo the process that has hurt us and helped "them."

So I see India's defiance as positive for gold and negative for paper.

The U.S. dollar has benefitted from the respect it enjoys as the world's remaining superpower. Now India is a populous country. Evidently, there are hundreds of millions of people there who care not a whit about U.S. prestige. So this must hurt the dollar. And I'd be willing to bet that there are hundreds of millions of others just like the Indians who have better things to do with their time than to worship the U.S. and its dollar.

When the chips are down, virtually noone in Asia can be counted on for loyalty to the U.S. and the NWO. The NWO is as big a farce as the tower of Babel. Can you imagine? All these guys getting together to build a tower up to heaven. And much of the world went along with the plan. ( "Hey, that sounds like a good idea!" ) I doubt we have the technology to do this even today, let alone 5,000 years ago. Oh well. Human nature never changes.

So, if we have mining companies buying back their hedges, Asians and others beginning to move to gold as a flight to quality, Major countries of the world opening challenging the U.S. and the NWO, the lynchpin of the NWO losing respect, competition to the the U.S. gathering steam in Europe, among other things, it looks to me like gold is about to make a comeback.

The Preacher

Letters to the editor, FT

Now a euro computer bomb looms on horizon
From Mr. I.M. Paton
15 Humberstone Road
Cambridge CB4 1JD, UK

Sir, Follwoing the millennium bug and the "Dow Jones bug" ( Computer bomb fear if Dow hits 10,000, May 5 ) do we now have a euro bug on the norizon because standard software running in our PCs does not support the Euro
symbol ( Greek "E" with two cross bars ) ? That part of PC software which provides the interface with the printer will need to be modified so that the euro symbol joins the pound and the dollar as a standard print character. What a pity politicians were not cost-conscious enough to choose "E"."

There are more people. IMHO

Malthus' postulate

http://mendel.genetics.washington.edu/~lab/malthusdoct.html

Malthus' essay

http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/popu.txt

deconstructionists' essay

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98may/special1.htm

chart

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~munro5/timecht2.htm

model ( just read the verbage as you don't have the program )

http://www.stolaf.edu/people/mckelvey/envision.dir/malthus.html

A slow night; even so, you had to come in and trivialise my plaintive squeak of the goldbug. Come the deflation, I will want some of that excess wine that floods the poor auSSIES. You and your Dad.-Fine people, Thanks.

However, if you are in an urban area where you feel unsafe, there are several things you can do.
email me @: ajent@mena-ark.com and I will give you some pointers.

Or in the alternative, ask DaveinCo if he has any ideas.

The law case of the Railroad Bonds secured with Trust Mortgage

1. Bankruptcy Case

Bankruptcy Court is not an Article III Court. Constitution does not control. Acts of Congress alone control.

1. IN DETERMINING THE NATURE OF THE OBLIGATION, BONDS AND MORTGAGE
MUST BE CONSTRUED TOGETHER. P. 253.

2. THE BONDS AND MORTGAGE ARE DOMESTIC OBLIGATIONS, TO BE
INTERPRETED AND ENFORCED ACCORDING TO THE LAW OF THIS COUNTRY. P.
254.

3. THE BONDS ARE OBLIGATIONS "PAYABLE IN MONEY OF THE UNITED
STATES," WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE JOINT RESOLUTION OF JUNE 5, 1933,
AND UNDER THAT RESOLUTION, ARE PAYABLE DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR IN PRESENT
LEGAL TENDER. P. 256.

Notice the language: the bonds are not paid. They are stated to be obligations which are discharged. You know right there that this court is talking bankruptcy language. Payable is tricky language. An obligation may be payable in eggs.

SINCE THE PARTIES AGREE THAT THE TERMS OF THE BONDS GRANTED HOLDERS
AN OPTION TO ELECT PAYMENT IN GUILDERS, WE MUST DETERMINE WHETHER,
DESPITE THIS OPTION, THE JOINT RESOLUTION OPERATED TO MAKE THE BONDS
DISCHARGEABLE IN CURRENT UNITED STATES LEGAL TENDER - A DOLLAR OF LEGAL
TENDER TO BE REPAID FOR EVERY DOLLAR BORROWED.

Treason was the King's favorite accusation. Good to get lands with.
Hence, treason is hard to prove by American law.
High Crimes & Misdemeanors is the language for charges against the King's ministers.
Endangering the Constitution and the security of the Republic by nonfeasance, misfeasance, or malfeasance in office is good preamble language for a High Crime indictment.

July Silver hit it's short term target posted a couple of days ago ( silver should hit 5.60 or some what higher over the next couple days ) . The early May up seasonal exhausted themselves today. Silver should reach it's wave c of 2 objective between 5.10 -4.90 ( 5/8 19:442, 5/12 22:42 ) by the end of May.

June Gold is still in it's counter trend wave 4 correction or the beginning of it's wave 5 down to finish off a multi month down leg. If June Gold closes under this week's lows at 296, 280 becomes very likely. Spot gold needs to close above 310 on a weekly chart to turn things up.

I couldn't get access when I tried. Thanx!

since the 1992 re-introduction of the dinar and the dirham,
that has been a mighty MORAL force that NEEDS gold and silver...

One can discount a large per centage of them as too poor to
be able to purchase gold, but consider the 16 million in
Europe, to cite one small example.

If that doesn't work I'll repost with a longer opening paragraph here so it won't trigger the glitch in the server's presentation of url's:
And if this doesn't work post your email address and I'll send it to you.


Malthus' postulate

http://mendel.genetics.washington.edu/~lab/malthusdoct.html

Malthus' essay

http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/popu.txt

deconstructionists' essay

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98may/special1.htm

chart

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~munro5/timecht2.htm

model ( just read the verbage as you don't have the program )

http://www.stolaf.edu/people/mckelvey/envision.dir/malthus.html

http://www.infowar.com/iwftp/cloaks/042997.txt
Y2k and security;
'As an American living in Japan for the past 17 years, I am profoundly
disturbed by the global political, economic and military implications of the
Y2K problem. One key stabilizing element in the present global socio-
economic order is America's military superiority, and this superiority is
highly dependent on date-sensitive computers. America's military and
intelligence agencies are the most computer-dependent in the world, and
solving the Y2K problem will probably be even more difficult in the military
and intelligence sectors than in others, due to the pervasiveness of
esoteric, antiquated programming languages and hardware, and also due to the tremendous emphasis on secrecy. Because both of these factors can only retard the Y2K repair process in these crucial sectors, it seems likely that America's national security will be significantly compromised by the Y2K problem.'
...

More Y2K problems
http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/y2k/TWB19980511S0009

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980515/japan_inve_1.html
Foreign investors snapping up Japanese bad loans and real estate collateral at bargain prices are finding their purchases sometimes come with the unwelcome hands of ''yakuza'' mobsters on them, analysts say.

Now that's what you call an extra dividend. :- ) )

I have just received a fax from our custodian in Jakarta. No trades can be done and no fx deals can be settled. All those banks with any dealings with Indonesia are going to get nothing back. ABN said that they will probably need to write off 80%+ of their Indonesian exposure. Will HSBC/Citibank be that different? Citibank has 1,000,000 credit cards in Indonesia and will need to write off at least 80% of that.

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~munro5/

08 February 1998
Govt to redeem gold bonds
PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

NEW DELHI, February 7: The government today announced repayment arrangements for the gold bonds 1998 which were being redeemed. An official press release said that the gold bonds which were issued
through a notification on February 18, 1993 would be
repayable from March 14 this year.

To facilitate payments, gold bars in denominations of
ten, 50, 100 and 500 grams and gold discs of one, two
and five grams,all of 0.995 fineness have been
manufactured by the government mint in Mumbai. They
would bear national Ashoka pillar emblem, mint code,
serial number and other details and repayment of the
gold bonds would be made in the highest denominations of gold bars
or discs, it said.

The repayment of gold would be made by the offices of Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) and certain specified main branches of State Bank of India ( SBI ) .

Along with repayment of these bonds, a lump sum interest for the
period of five years would be paid on maturity at the rate of
Rs 40 for each gram of gold.
Copyright  1998 Indian Express Newspapers
Bombay ) Ltd.

The bimetallism inherent in the Islamic Dinar will be it's undoing, if it ever gets off of the "commemerative" mint circuit.
Just check Donald's posts on the Au/Ag ratio. Why do you think gold went underground in the US in the heyday of silver coinage?

in Boston, NYC, and Philly.

There's some good news and some bad news on the Y2K front. The good news is that my friend who works for Compuware is selling a programming tool that acually works on the tough stuff--old mainframe code. My expectations of how large, well-capitalized banks and financial services companies will fare is much improved. A friend who works for a well-known market research firm happened to fly home with me told me they know that many smaller institutions are putting themselves up for sale to bigger firms because either Y2K bugs or the cost of fixing them would put them out of business. The big banks will have the bugs fixed and the small ones are for the most part fixing their systems by leveraging the systems of the bigger banks that buy them. Having explained that, my highly rational, responsible, and predictable friend then says he plans to take his money out of the bank early next year and give up a year of interest, just to be safe. I am more certain than ever that the existence of mass fear of Y2K bank problems will cause a run on the banks. Even if I was the only guy on earth who knew for sure that everyone's money is safe in the bank come Y2K, do I really want to be the last guy at my bank to try to get his money out after everyone else has?

So, er, that's the good news.

The bad news is that the list of US Gov't agencies that have issued public statements that they are "unlikely to be prepared" ( read: NFW ) for Y2K has grown to four that I know of: IRS, US Coast Guard, FAA, and USDA. For every agency that's ready to admit they won't be ready, how many others either don't know or won't say?

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission does not have a lot of reassuring things to say about the Y2K readiness of public utilities. See the following highly disturbing article from UPI, but not before you go to bed:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/05/14/washington_dateline_general_news/usyear200_1.html

By the way, this is the first story of this kind that I've seen from UPI; the issue is truly going mainstream.

The real image of what will happen when Y2K comes around is starting to come into focus, and it's not a pretty picture.
-EJ

p.s. While I was away... sad events in Indonesia, where they're learning just how expensive an IMF loan can be.

There have been so many ( more than 100 last I read compared to 30 for the mob in the same time period ) that the normal suicide, a gunshot to the back of the head, was becoming too routine. This guy rushed from the service station, jumped in his Corvette, and drove airborne into a utility pole. I understand he was depressed.

Barbara Wise was depressed too before she was found bruised, nude, and dead ( of natural causes according to investigators ) in her office at the Commerce Department. She worked for John Huang who worked for Ron Brown who also died with a .45 size hole in his head and no autopsy.

Then there was Caity Mahoney, a former W.H. intern and friend of Monica Lewinsky, who died execution-style in a supposed holdup in a Starbucks in Georgetown. No money was taken.

These are just three of hundreds of violations of the theories of probability. Meanwhile, the news media ignores, the Dow rises, and the Sheep sleep.

Sorry about the slight.
I shall endeavour to put things right.

Shall I put away a few casks of red?
To sup before going off to bed.

Or a keg or two of white?
To sup under the moons delight.

White or red wine
I care not a lot.

So long as my glass
Is full to the top.

... 14th March 1998. For this purpose, it is necessary to determine, in advance, the precise quantities of gold of various denominations required for repayment at each centre and arrange for their manufacture by the Government Mint and also timely despatch to the repayment
centres spread all over the country...

Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance
New Delhi: Agrahayana 06, 1919; November 27, 1997
http://www.nic.in/finmin/press/goldbond.htm

1. a political backlash against China for daring to screw with US elections.
2. might actually be bullish for gold
3. the US will regain much respect in the world
4. would-be politicians might think twice
5. citizens might actually become interested in the positive aspects of our laws
6. we might not hear from Hillary for at least a couple weeks.
7. much, much more
Yes, I am talking about Bill Clinton, the current Disgrace of the United States of America. Hopefully we will have a new President by this time next year. Democrats would be commiting political suicide if they support him.
- c

could we have this discussion AFTER gold crosses $600? {:- ) )

With vast new markets opening before us, 1 out of 3 people on Earth ( Eastern Europe, Russia, China ) will join the queue towards capitalism and consumption. These locals have vast natural resources with which to pay for the goods and services we will sell, They have oil, timber, uranium, silver, gold, nickel, tin, etc. all in the ground just waiting to be dug up to pay for their increasing standard of living.

If growth continues at more or less the same pace, and we could control government spending, we could grow out of the debt in 10 or 15 years. Most families in this country have a mortgage. The standard mortgage is 30 years. Are all these folks broke?

We have a 5 trillion dollar economy and a 5 trillion dollar debt.

This would be as a family with a 100K income, with a 100K mortgage.

Not broke, no.

Remember, I am a gold broker. I sell gold for a living. This is not some propagandist's ploy to undermine gold confidence. Everybody here knows where I work, so I am not proselytizing anti gold sentiments. I will turn raging bull one day, and that day may not be too far off. In the meantime, it is my job to trade the market for my clients. Long whites and short gold has paid off pretty well these last couple years. When I feel I can make profits in long gold, I will be all over it. Until then, is it not refreshing to hear a gold peddler bashing gold?

Instead of calling it as I see it, I have often been accused of some agenda. Yet, by and large, my views have held to be among the most accurate on this forum. This does not fit the party line, but it does work, yes?

As for this group, I stand in awe of the collected intellect and talent that abounds here, I keep coming back, don't I? Bart has created a world class site. If, however, one throws an argument at me, with inherent contradictions or flaws within, I will sometimes choose to point this out. Most here have not hesitated to point out my own foibles so I think I am not alone in the assumption that I am free to comment on a particular argument.

I believe that the character and motives of the folks on this site are noble in intent and earnest in their sentiments. That I call their arguments into question does not mean I impugn their person or integrity. I believe many here are trying their best to explain a world that seems perched on disaster. I believe these people are honestly trying to pass the message of safety and security. I believe their intentions are good. That I would find occasion to disagree with their logic is no impeachment of their selves.

I have many times offered the exact same argument as the one I am debating, only without the emotion and with a different outcome. Many here have told me they have never looked at it quite this way, and they see things clearer now. I have written on these pages before, that the highest complement I may pay to another, is to recognize this person as "A Thinker of the next Thought". When you come up with an answer, ask the next question it brings. To avoid this is to use half the brain.

I am blessed, or cursed, with the constant asking of the next question. This is one reason I study physics. It always asks the next question, and even the grandest of theories are set aside when observation does not agree with prediction. Either it works or not. Answers are never even really answers, just closer approximations of what we perceive as the truth.

Many here are seekers of sorts, but when they find what they set out to find, they hold it aloft and bid all hail this great new knowledge. When the young boy in the back asks, "Yes, but what if....", he is roundly cuffed and jostled by the mob until he is silenced. This is not seeking. This is mob rule and justification for one's own prejudice.

Like others here, I too have the right to speak the truth as I see it, or to not speak at all.

Yes

Indeedy