Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat May 16 1998 00:00 - ID#410215)
..... ERLE .....
With vast new markets opening before us, 1 out of 3 people on Earth ( Eastern Europe, Russia, China ) will join the queue towards capitalism and consumption. These locals have vast natural resources with which to pay for the goods and services we will sell, They have oil, timber, uranium, silver, gold, nickel, tin, etc. all in the ground just waiting to be dug up to pay for their increasing standard of living.

If growth continues at more or less the same pace, and we could control government spending, we could grow out of the debt in 10 or 15 years. Most families in this country have a mortgage. The standard mortgage is 30 years. Are all these folks broke?

We have a 5 trillion dollar economy and a 5 trillion dollar debt.

This would be as a family with a 100K income, with a 100K mortgage.

Not broke, no.

Remember, I am a gold broker. I sell gold for a living. This is not some propagandist's ploy to undermine gold confidence. Everybody here knows where I work, so I am not proselytizing anti gold sentiments. I will turn raging bull one day, and that day may not be too far off. In the meantime, it is my job to trade the market for my clients. Long whites and short gold has paid off pretty well these last couple years. When I feel I can make profits in long gold, I will be all over it. Until then, is it not refreshing to hear a gold peddler bashing gold?

Instead of calling it as I see it, I have often been accused of some agenda. Yet, by and large, my views have held to be among the most accurate on this forum. This does not fit the party line, but it does work, yes?

As for this group, I stand in awe of the collected intellect and talent that abounds here, I keep coming back, don't I? Bart has created a world class site. If, however, one throws an argument at me, with inherent contradictions or flaws within, I will sometimes choose to point this out. Most here have not hesitated to point out my own foibles so I think I am not alone in the assumption that I am free to comment on a particular argument.

I believe that the character and motives of the folks on this site are noble in intent and earnest in their sentiments. That I call their arguments into question does not mean I impugn their person or integrity. I believe many here are trying their best to explain a world that seems perched on disaster. I believe these people are honestly trying to pass the message of safety and security. I believe their intentions are good. That I would find occasion to disagree with their logic is no impeachment of their selves.

I have many times offered the exact same argument as the one I am debating, only without the emotion and with a different outcome. Many here have told me they have never looked at it quite this way, and they see things clearer now. I have written on these pages before, that the highest complement I may pay to another, is to recognize this person as "A Thinker of the next Thought". When you come up with an answer, ask the next question it brings. To avoid this is to use half the brain.

I am blessed, or cursed, with the constant asking of the next question. This is one reason I study physics. It always asks the next question, and even the grandest of theories are set aside when observation does not agree with prediction. Either it works or not. Answers are never even really answers, just closer approximations of what we perceive as the truth.

Many here are seekers of sorts, but when they find what they set out to find, they hold it aloft and bid all hail this great new knowledge. When the young boy in the back asks, "Yes, but what if....", he is roundly cuffed and jostled by the mob until he is silenced. This is not seeking. This is mob rule and justification for one's own prejudice.

Like others here, I too have the right to speak the truth as I see it, or to not speak at all.


(Sat May 16 1998 00:06 - ID#410215)
..... Oooops, Oooops .....

Sorry about the hiccup. Must have gotten caught in the hour block changeover.

Winston -

I have never attended an Indian wedding, and who told you about my hair?


(Sat May 16 1998 00:14 - ID#284255)
EJ - thanks for the update.
There was once a COBOL programmer in the mid 1990s. For the sake of this story, we'll call him Jack.
After years of being taken for granted and treated as a technological dinosaur by all the UNIX programmers and Client/Server programmers and website developers, Jack was finally getting some respect.

He'd become a private consultant specializing in Year 2000 conversions. He was working short-term assignments for prestige companies, traveling all over the world on different assignments. He was working 70 and 80 and even 90 hour weeks, but it was worth it.

But several years of this relentless, mind-numbing work took its toll on Jack. He had problems sleeping and began having anxiety dreams about the Year 2000. It had reached a point where even the thought of the year 2000 made him nearly violent. He must have suffered some sort of breakdown, because all he could think about was how he could avoid the year 2000 and all that came with it.

Jack decided to contact a company that specialized in cryogenics.
He made a deal to have himself frozen until March 15th, 2000. This was a very expensive process and totally automated. He was thrilled. The next thing he would know is he'd wake up in the year 2000; after the New Year celebrations and computer debacles; after the leap day. Nothing else to worry about except getting on with his life.

He was put into his cryogenic receptacle, the technicians set the revival date, he was given injections to slow his heartbeat to a bare minimum, and that was that.

The next thing that Jack saw was an enormous and very modern room filled with excited people. They were all shouting "I can't believe it!" and "It's a miracle" and "He's alive!"
There were cameras ( unlike any he'd ever seen ) and equipment that looked like it came out of a science fiction movie.

Someone who was obviously a spokesperson for the group stepped forward. Jack couldn't contain his enthusiasm. "It is over?" he asked. "Is 2000 already here? Are all the millennial parties and promotions and crises all over and done with?"

The spokesman explained that there had been a problem with the programming of the timer on Jack's cryogenic receptacle, it hadn't been year 2000 compliant. It was actually eight thousand years later, not the year 2000. But the spokesman told Jack that he shouldn't get excited; someone important wanted to speak to him.

Suddenly a wall-sized projection screen displayed the image of a man that looked very much like Bill Gates.
This man was Prime Minister of Earth. He told Jack not to be upset. That this was a wonderful time to be alive. That there was world peace and no more starvation. That the space program had been reinstated and there were colonies on the moon and on Mars. That technology had advanced to such a degree that everyone had virtual reality interfaces which allowed them to contact anyone else on the planet, or to watch any entertainment, or to hear any music recorded anywhere.

"That sounds terrific," said Jack. "But I'm curious. Why is everybody so interested in me?"

"Well," said the Prime Minister. "The year 10,000 is just around the corner, and it says in your files that you know COBOL..."

Adam was walking around the Garden of Eden feeling very lonely, so God asked Adam, "What is wrong?"
Adam said he didn't have anyone to talk to.
God said, He was going to give Adam a companion and it would be a woman. He said this person will cook for you and wash your clothes, she will always agree with every decision you make. She will bear your children and never ask you to get up in the middle of the night to take care of them. She will not nag you, and will always be the first to admit she was wrong when you've had a disagreement. She will never have a headache, and will freely give you love and compassion whenever needed.

Adam asked God, "What would a woman like this cost?"
God said, "An arm and a leg."
Adam said "What can I get for just a rib?"
The rest is history.

(Sat May 16 1998 00:16 - ID#190411)
One hundred years ago in the United States there was an election for president about the issue of bimetallism.
William Jennings Bryan had some timely comments for our generation back then.
History is the same old same old, - new as can be.

Also, Mozel and Gianni d'Orio have been sidetracked by this same issue.
Our situation does not parallel that of the alledged truthfulness of the magazine that Gianni d'Orio cites.
There is a large quantity of new gold being added to our supply, ( If it is to be used as money ) .
If we were adhering to a true gold standard, there is plenty of new gold coming online. ( so, buy some new money - goldstocks ) . Check your history book for the "Cross of Gold" speach ( kitco sp ) by WJB.

(Sat May 16 1998 00:23 - ID#287280)
RJ--got a little problem...
Those folks with all the natural resources? They are also
doing most of the manufacturing of goods...don't really need their own markets to sell their own resource their own factories...the future will be different from
the past...yes....indeedy {:- ) )


(Sat May 16 1998 00:24 - ID#335184)
SDRer - This is Commander Tong to Major Lee !
RE: DERIVITIVES ,............... Are you trying to say that ZIGGY STARDUST is not as valuable as GOLD !



(Sat May 16 1998 00:25 - ID#201238)
RJ must you be
so elequent?

Of course you have the right to speak your mind!

However, not everyone on this forum is trading the wiggles and waggles of a comex chart. Some of us are positioning themselves for an order of magnitude move in all natural resources.

My compliments yo you my eloquent friend, for you have been mostly right in the short run!

(Sat May 16 1998 00:27 - ID#153102)
@Mister RJ
Think on this. Debt cannot be paid with debt.

Usery is the basis of this prosperity in the Land of Baal. The rest of the world, particularly the non-European part of it that has been the object of "humanitarian loans & aid" from the IMF & World Bank is as desperate as the first Babylonian farmer to fall into the usury trap of the temple of Baal.

Eleven for ten. One simple operation repeated many times leading to the same result, the destruction of the borrower. The intellect ought to grasp this. But, for some reason, it does not. It is only clear in a moral light. And sadly, the West disbelieves its Scripture. But, the course of usury will run whether the warnings not to engage in it are believed or not.

(Sat May 16 1998 00:31 - ID#410215)
..... See what I mean? .....

SDRer has no compunctions about finding flaws in my arguments.

And this is why China desperately seeks Most Favored Nation status from the US?

Their markets are the west and from the west they buy the technology and means to produce what they sell at home and abroad. No nation is an island. Well Britain maybe, and Cuba, and Bermuda, and well you get the idea.

The prospects for the future have never looked brighter.


(Sat May 16 1998 00:41 - ID#410215)
..... Its Friday Night .....

I'll respond to the rest tomorrow.

I'm going out.

Uh Huh!

(Sat May 16 1998 00:50 - ID#57232)
Gold supply/demand
RJ: Hope you are still there. I have several comments for your critique, some that date back to the 60's and 70's -- the great 'Gold war' described by Antony Sutton.

Fact #1 The CB's have always had enough gold to swamp the markets for years. Historically they usually have stopped selling long before they ran out. This is due in part to the fact that whenever they sell their gold, it gives others to opportunity to buy it -- others being entities they could not control, such as foreign powers. Currently that is China, India, and the Middle East.

So -- the CB's cannot sell gold indefinitely without losing complete control of it, and that they will not do. Possibly bullish for gold now.

Fact #2 At some time, the CB's will shift from net selling to net buying. Historically, net CB selling has rarely lasted for more than 2 years, during times when the equilibrium price of gold was much higher than the spot price. Bullish for gold -- this gold bear is nearly two years old.

Fact #3 The CB's have loaned out 8000 tonnes of gold. This is a profitable undertaking as long as the dollar/gold carry is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold. As soon as gold starts to rise in dollar terms, these trades will unwind, dollars will be sold, and the gold loans will be closed out. some gold loans have already defaulted. The dollar is currently also thought to be too strong for the rest of the world economy, so there is motivation to push the price of the dollar down. Bullish for gold.

Fact #4 The long term equilibrium price of gold is now about $600/oz ( I think Frank Veneroso said $650/oz ) . So, even though these are not inflationary times, we are far from equilibrium. Also, D.A thinks the deflationary period in SEAsia is over. Bullish for gold.

Fact #5. Historically, the CB's lose control over the price of gold during international crises, such as war, or the threat of war. Right now the international situation is bullish for gold.

Fact #6. During the financial collapse of a gold-owning country, there is a strong tendency to sell the gold during the financial turmoil. This is possibly bearish for gold -- short term.

So what do I conclude from the above? The gold bear is probably over.

My poker game is based on the gold bull beginning right now, given that the international situation may force the CB's hand. I think the only really bearish event for gold is the sudden collapse of a gold-rich country.

What do your floor trader friends say about gold?

(Sat May 16 1998 00:59 - ID#31876)
May The Suffering in Indonesia be Stopped Soon, I Pray

(Sat May 16 1998 01:02 - ID#190411)
RJ, a most thoughtful reply.
On occaision I get a bit morose.
You mentioned your study of physics.- A fine avocation if there ever is one. One of our valued customers has a son who is in nuclear astrophysics.
I have a bookcase full of tomes on astrophysics that I bought in the 70's-80's. Back then, if I had bought gold, instead of those damned books, I suppose I could have caught the true gold bull.
I've got my gold, gold stocks, silver ..... ready for y2k.
But, the reason for my delay in replying: I was outside digging worms for my daughter's turtle, that we rescued from a highway. Go gold, if there is the slightest bit of life to it.
As I asked a month ago: if it is money, why don't the Japanese buy it?

(Sat May 16 1998 01:03 - ID#373284)
Avalon - as promised ---

(Sat May 16 1998 01:14 - ID#190411)
I still am interested in gold in the ground. Write me at

(Sat May 16 1998 01:17 - ID#153102)
As good as gold.
This is a political statement. It was the political statement made by the United States about the obligations of the British Crown when Britain ran out of gold after WWI.
Later the same political statement was made about the $US at Bretton Woods. But, when the gold ran out and Nixon made the political declaration that the $US was as good as gold, it did not wash.
But, they patched it up by creating the IMF.
And followed the worship of Baal with mostly paper like unto the clay tablets of Babylon. But it is not its place as the foundation of usury which defines gold's role in commerce today. It is its intrinsic value which makes it irreplaceable as a pledge for performance.
For the BIS gold is the pledge you must place to guarantee your side of a transaction. Gold is wealth, not necessarily money. Money always has some political risk because it is issued by governments. Only gold money has no risk attached because Gold has no risk.

(Sat May 16 1998 01:19 - ID#57232)
Correction to my 00:50 post about CB gold sales.
All: Apologies! Just checked Pierre Lassonde's gold book. At a quick glance, CB gold sales have averaged about 4 years duration from 1950-1994. During the period 1973-1979, there were 7 consecutive years of gold sales. But during that time the price of gold skyrocketed. It is also interesting to note that CB's have been consistently selling gold from 1989 to 1994. I don't know about 1995 and 1996. If there was net CB selling in 1995 and 1996, this means that there has been net CB gold selling for nearly 8 years. They can't keep this up too much longer and still control the gold supply.

I think I confused everyone by mixing up CB gold sales with dropping gold prices. I think Vronsky has info on the length of gold bears.

Nite all!

(Sat May 16 1998 01:31 - ID#233199)
Does anyone here have any knowledge of the historic commercial value of Gold?

In the middle ages? Earlier?

Does anyone have anyknowledge of the extremes to which the price of ( value of ) salt may hae risen?

Is anyone aware of some recent studies about the very strong human biological motivation to obtainn salt ? I heard something recently but didn't realize I would be interested and now I can't find it?

I have heard ( but can not validate ) that at times salt has been worth its weight in gold! Is this true?

The small disposable salt containers in McDonlds restaurants woule be worth about $7.50 at todays prices! Think of them as a small standardized trading items. Convenient; portable, necessary. Like water.

Late night musings of course, but imagine a protracted economic breakdown? Little salt packages would make a good currency. It may take some time for them to become fully valued, but as we all know, some biological urges can become very pressing.

Perhaps a 2.25 kg box of "disposable" salt containers costing less than $6.00 could be seen as a long term "call" option? God fobid it should ever come to that....I have heard some talk from time to time here about the usefulness in day to day living of 1oz coins and the like; maybe we should throw a box of those peppers into the crib as well, and be prepared for a renewal of the spice trade. Some of those old time spice traders made out pretty well I hear.

Of course cleanable water, shelter, food, and toilet paper, probably come before salt and pepper. Still, I couldn't help thinking as I sat there pouring $7.50 worth of salt over my fries if maybe I wasn't a bit complacent.

If any one does have any pertinent information for me my e-mail is

Thanks to all ...

(Sat May 16 1998 01:38 - ID#373284)
mozel...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I have the utmost respect for you
and the thoughts that you pen...key-stroke...and put forward...

1976 I am the only clown who defiled the Naval Academy...over the fence, tree to tree and in the morning saluting individuals who would not be allowed to shine my FATHER'S shoes...

America is alive and well...

Mozel...America is alive and well............................THE GLASS IS HALF FULL..........................

(Sat May 16 1998 01:46 - ID#409160)
R.J 23:58 AND ALL
We live in borrowed times, if you will look at the statistics, you will see the average debt of income ratio continue on a one way curve, up! When you factor the real numbers ( including taxes ) . The adjustments of the CPI tries to reset the numbers so the gov. can justify not increasing interest rates. It is nothing but a confidence game.

The situation you speak of describes an economy that is self perpetuating, of course as of yet there is no such energy that we ( the human race ) have discovered. Granted if the countries in which you speak of were a free market society it would extend the global situation. But since they are "control societies" where the free market does not come into play until the commodity reaches the world market, the people are suppress and payed very little wages. So in order for product to be sold on world market, a society of wealthier citizens must purchase products!

Now if you will follow the game out, the country that has the wealth to purchase the products must produce wealth in order to purchase. ( The masses must have money. ) Well how is that money created, besides just printed, something must be produced!

We have moved from a manufacturing economy to a service economy! We ( U.S. ) still lead in technological break through, but when it comes to manufacturing the items, labor too expensive and regulations too many and costly.

It can be look on a simplistic level. TRADE DEFICIT .

I must confess I am a capitalist and I on a daily bases try to capitalize on a daily bases, but when you have such large corps. The begin to work against a country and strive for company. Meaning if it cost jobs due to labor costs. ( Labor being cheaper in 3 world countries, not to mention regulations )

So what you end up with is, the wealth of production going to a small group of individuals, rather than a society. We ( U.S. ) are in a transition stage. The wealth is being sucked out of society. The only thing, it still the best game in world. ( The market )

An economy in reality is very simplicity. In a capitalistic society you must produce an item and sell to another. The motivation is to gain a profit from product. Now if your in a closed society profit can not be generated. But if you are outside of that group you can bring wealth in, the group can benefit. ( all members ) .

It comes down to a simple definition, for someone to capitalize someone must loose. When it comes to the competing markets, the U.S. has prevailed, that is because the common worker has prevailed as a consumer. The wealth is distributed more equally than any other society. Unlike China where the average worker makes 50 cents a day.

In futures trading it is a zero sum game, in order for some to gain someone must loose! In reality U.S. has been losing ( trade deficit ) we just have better credit.

We are entering a era of control ( Mergers ) . If you can not see it, you must be blind! We are entering into a cash less society! All transactions will controlled, guaranteed. ( There always will be a black market, cash )

People wake up and see what is happening!

Tolerant 1, I admirer your parasitism but a free society would not let such atrocities continue on like the have. There are some many trampling on the constitution to list. If you are wanting to know, Mozel would be more than happy to point them out.

Mozel, the justice system is nothing about justice! Its about how much money you have and how many key individuals you can influence!

I'm not a doom and gloomer but a realist. World is a zero sum game. ( Because of human nature, greed. ) For one society to gain another must loose. ( That doesn't mean individual will gain with their countries loses. )

Gold and silver will always have a value, they have been the true currency through time. What we have seen over the last 100 years is the attempted of the devaluing of a true currency. It will succeed a few years. ( Cash less society! )

Just be sure to have your faith in the right substance!

(Sat May 16 1998 02:07 - ID#256250)
Look at the trend in copper, a 1,000 short tons here, a 1,000 short tons there and...
by golly, comex eligible copper stocks are disapearing at a rather rapid rate. Paper copper price may be low, but someone doesn't seem to care. they want the commodity. Maybe they are exchanging their overabundant usdollars for tons of comex eligible copper stocks???

A MAJOR trend shift occured this week. The FED drained usdollars from the market 6 days out of 9 ( refraining from action on the other 3 ) . I don't think that the FED has acted in such a manner in 4/5 years ( possible 10 years??? ) . To many usdollars are in the market and the USG is running out of games/ways to funnel them off.

If the USG raises rates, stocks fall, people move money out of the U.S., causing the usdollar to fall which causes people to sell bonds, which causes rates to rise, which causes the stock market to fall further, and it repeats until ....

The Rubin/Al team have run out of wiggle room, and thus we saw the amazing action with the FED draining usdollars/money from the market this week.

Something this way cometh...


FWN: 141426 GMT

COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today


Gold 32,000
Silver 10,000
H.G. Copper 7,000

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 97,356 0 1,192 -1,192 96,164

FWN: 153656 GMT

COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 2

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 102,394 37,423,627
0 -102,394 52,923,097
0 0 90,346,724

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

636,926 0 0 0 0 636,926
246,261 0 0 0 0 246,261
883,187 0 0 0 0 883,187

(Sat May 16 1998 02:13 - ID#373284)
I bet that hurt, HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM, namaste'

(Sat May 16 1998 02:19 - ID#284255)
--Big Red and Big Blue--
by Michael Rothchild
of The Bionomics Institute

(Sat May 16 1998 02:27 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated
Just keeps looking weaker.

(Sat May 16 1998 02:33 - ID#373284)
For all........
my infinity is a child's curiosity...

Dreaming innocence...

Would this be the last breath, whoosh......kindness...a privilege...kindness...


(Sat May 16 1998 02:42 - ID#255151)

That chart reminded me of the Road Runner cartoons. In this instance, the DJIA is cast in the role of Wyle E. Coyote. What a sublime moment it is when Coyote gets that look of comprehension in his eyes that he is F*ed.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 03:29 - ID#24135)
Gold auctions and gold bonds
I thought about it.. You are wrong ..I have paintings.
Auctions are the marketplace for valuable things. The
man that sold "irises" was not scratching for money.
He would have sold with a RESERVE. That puts your market
UNDER YOUR CONTROL .. In other words .. if you do not
get your price .. you do not sell.. or rather you buy
it back yourself.
Many people assume as you have .. that people go to
auctions for bargains .. Maybe thats the case for old
computers being bought for spare parts .. but for
valuables .. jewelery, paintings, antique furniture,
bronzes, marble statuary .. thats where the market is
.. and it's frequently the only place to buy what you
want .. And you buy in competition with OTHERS.
The More the better for the seller .. yes
Now... obviously I would not try to auction ALL the
world's gold at Once .. But slowly ..
After all .. think back .. in the 1970s.. the carter
adminstration had similar ideas and initiated treasury
gold auctions .. soon they had to stop as the price
began rising .. and that action was coincident with
the last great gold bull.
I you think gold would wind up selling at 35 $/oz ..
then why in the world would YOU buy it. and why DONT
the CBs auction it OFF. Claro .. its worth much more
than 300$ and they dont DARE to start auctioning it.
Auctions are for people who buy things anticipating
the price to RISE. Isnt that preferable to controlled
buying/selling between banks who have an interest
in keeping the price DOWN... to cover over their
great paper money scam. MUCH better for the seller
for the buyers to HAVE to bid OPENLY against one
another. Now they are free to collude among themseves.

For SDRer ..
There you GO.... Indian GOLD BONDS... One day it will
be the only way to raise money..

(Sat May 16 1998 03:46 - ID#31876)
From Ottawa, a Reporter Finds an Mystery at the Royal Mint

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 03:53 - ID#24135)
Diatribe on Auctions ..
is dedicated to Alberich ... the
vertically challenged

(Sat May 16 1998 04:12 - ID#153102)
@refer @Tolerant1
@refer Noone reads all the posts so this is not critique. But, your comment to me indicates you have missed some of mine.

@Tolerant1 The streets are filled with well fed, well dressed people enjoying a standard of living beyond the imagination of the most visionary in the past. There is more wealth on four wheels in America than in the public treasuries of most countries on this planet. There is material abundance, comfort, and convenience, libraries, periodicals, music. There are schools and universities and sport and churches for every taste. America is filled with ambitious, energetic, creative, hard working people. It is possible, not even difficult, to depict the glass as all full.

(Sat May 16 1998 04:22 - ID#284255)
Charts to view.
Dow/Gold ratio

Xau/Gold ratio

Dow/T-Bonds ratio

European Indices

European Indices

You are correct about auctions.
They are designed to extract a better price.
Especially in there are more than two keen bidders.

A good auctioneer can extract far and beyond what the item is worth if the bidders are game.

I have just sold two houses at auction and received about 15% above the concensus price. And in a flat market.

Soon to sell the next one via auction.

May there be many bidders there.

(Sat May 16 1998 04:34 - ID#413109)
Silly stuff & predictions
Don't pay any attention to me. I fool around with graphs, compass, &
other nonsense, then I predict what I see, based on work that I've done
for a long time. Lately my calls have been on the mark, but have often
also found myself completely off.
Starting next week and for the next 2-3 months I see in my work a strong
up move for gold, probably the other PMs as well, and the markets going
down. The we may get the markets retesting their highs, while the golds
correct sharply and test lows.

(Sat May 16 1998 05:06 - ID#284255)
Millennium Computers May Switch Off Lights, Heat

At the latest in a series of House hearings on the outlook for computer failures in 2000, Hirning outlined the complex inter-connected system of the nation's power grid and its pipeline system for moving natural gas and oil, and their reliance on computers. "Energy companies use computers to connect plants, refineries, district offices, and major administrative and operational systems that interface with large data centers," Hirning said.

"Computers are also used to remotely control transmission system breakers, coordinate power generation schedules, compensate for large transmission line breaks, and provide protection against voltage, current and frequency fluctuations, " she said.

A millennium mistake could affect the microprocessors in the thousands of "embedded" systems that may be at one power plant, Hirning said. "Without testing, the potential impact of Year 2000 errors could cause some embedded systems to malfunction, possibly resulting in a ripple effect across a portion of the grid," she said.

The impact of no power
Will affect one and all.

No shops, no work,
No markets,
To trade

Temporarily or for a while,
Chaos may prevail.

No markets
No trading of gold?

What of this impact upon gold shares?
What of this impact upon physical gold?

Unbelievable now,
Perchance reality soon.

(Sat May 16 1998 05:08 - ID#31876)
Nobody expected you to have a P.H.D. in math. We just want you
telling us like you see it.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 05:15 - ID#24135)
Yes ..
Sharefin ..
IF what you want to sell has value
then sell it at auction .. if it
doesnt then keep it and learn to love it or
give it to your gardener.
I think gold has value. But if Alberich
is right and gold is only worth 35$ then
all of us on this site are really wasting our
I believe you should think this through
Alberich. Do you think the CBs are protecting
goldbugs by not auctioning gold .. THAT'LL be
the DAY.
Abx CEO Munk's challenge to the CB to the point
that they should let other buyers bid on the
gold went unanswered you will note. The CBs
would go wild IF they thought of other bodies
like the mines for example auctioning gold to
the highest bidder and smashing their little
boy's club.

(Sat May 16 1998 05:21 - ID#31876)
Sad Story From Asia, Probably the Reason JIN Has Not Posted

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 05:40 - ID#24135)
Speeding up
to slow people..
I had no luck with registry change .
then I tried the demon people which
bombed with message that they had exceeded
bandwidth .. So I did search with
inference find for PPP-boost .
..found it and downloaded
Success .. works faster .. thanks

(Sat May 16 1998 06:00 - ID#252197)
oh this miracle of life
Since its very early Saturday morning and PM's aren't

trading I would like to digress a bit and share some

predictions. I hope this does not offend or bore anyone.

I apologize in advance if I appear to be redundant

or too simplistically obvious.

Without using doom and gloom scenarios of war, famine,

pestilence, and cataclysmic occurrence I will attempt to

accurately predict, with the possibility of slight variability,

the future outcome for all living animal organisms now existing

on this planet. I will do this without the use of theories,

beliefs, or imaginations. I will use only observable historical

and current factual information. My predictions are as follows:

25 years from now approximately 25 to 30% of all animal organisms

living today will cease to exist.

50 years from today approximately 50% of all animal organisms now

living will exist no more.

100 years from now approximately 98% of all current animal life will

no longer exist.

150 years from today all animal life alive today will have ceased to


200 years hence the only organisms, currently existing, will be various

forms of vegetation ( based on my meager observations ) .

So what does this indicate of the future that we can expect to occur?

More predictions:


To state this more succinctly, there will be many beginnings, progressions, and endings to everything we can conceive of i.e., belief

systems, governing factions, economic systems, educational priorities,

etc., etc., etc.

So what do the facts of the future indicate will not occur?

A utopian constant ( excluding supernatural intervention )

A permanence of any kind

The only permanent constant is CHANGE itself.

P.S. Many, many, many things will come, will exist, and then be no

more. However, as long as humans remain rational and have an aesthetic

appreciation I believe ( first belief ) gold will be highly esteemed

and sought after for both it's beauty and it's value. It has been so

to this day.

(Sat May 16 1998 06:30 - ID#284255)
Y2K and Embedded Controls in the Electric Industry - It's an Issue of Magnitude
Great article with informative links included.

(Sat May 16 1998 06:38 - ID#284255)
Intuit Sued Again Over Year 2000 Readiness In Quicken
MS Gates next?
End of a millenium.

(Sat May 16 1998 06:47 - ID#284255)
What shame we bear
What shame that men
Who once were boys
Clear eyed and innocent
Become so cruel
Deal such deceits
Delight in war and strife.

And girls
Such short lived innocence
Destroyed too soon
By those same boys, now men
Who shared their innocence.


Full well the dark souls know
We are not islands, isolate
Though lone in times slow flow
But Islands, congregate,
Most subtly wrought as one
Wide continent to compass all
Beneath the surge of tides that run
Between us; the deeps appal.

Restless the seas slow rise and fall
Times tide, storms wind, and scouring rain
And the sun, shape smooth and mould
All separate - the isles remain.

Eons may flow, such tides such sea
Retreat, disclose the unity
One land, one people and one kind.
Such the Wisdom; such the Mystery.

(Sat May 16 1998 07:41 - ID#432157)
What's with all this poetry.How does that mingle with gold.

(Sat May 16 1998 07:41 - ID#57232)
sharefin: Good morning! Just saw the paper this morning. Good news for you. Suharto rolled back the IMF recommended price increases of 10 days ago. This should give you son time to get out if he has not already. Is he safe?

Saw your dad's poem this morning. My grandfather volunteered for WWI,WWII, and the Korean war. His comments about war can be summarized in the following words: 'Scratch the surface of a Human, and you will find an animal'. That is the negative side. But on the other hand, he was the most generous, kind, considerate person I have ever known. Took care of his invalid wife without complaint for nearly 15 years. Wasn't easy given her personality. There are many fine individuals in my life that I respect, so I know all is not lost. One of the best I know is a retired trolley conductor from Pennsylvania -- we have known that family for over 40 years.

I would like to make another positive point since things are not going well in the world right now. Our human reality is often not pleasant, but over the recent centuries and millenia, things have constantly gotten better, despite the reversals. Discussion of possible lost former civilizations is for another time. Our current information revolution is 'the awakening' so oft talked about. This is the human collective consciousness forming for the first time in our civilization -- our opportunity to evolve.

No matter what happens, our self awareness has spread throughout the universe, and our existence in the grand scheme of things is assured.

I suspect very strongly, by the way, that we have been having visitors.

We may actually have guardians of some kind to help us through our dark times -- but the assistance of the guardians, if they exist, must be subtle, as it must appear that we met our own problems and overcame them.

Even if there are no guardians monitoring us, our collective consciousness -- your dad's poetry -- the great works of music and literature will live on forever -- because the entire universe is connected -- past -- present -- future. The concept of time itself is a 3-dimensional human artifact.

Hope this helps. I find this weekend especially hard for me, after my discovery that unscrupulous members of our own government were the reason India was forced to detonate 5 nuclear weapons, moving the world closer to the brink again. I have spent my whole life with the belief that I will not work on the wartime uses of nuclear energy, only peaceful ones. That has made my life difficult at times as a physicist, as you might imagine. Friends at Los Alamos, and other National labs. But -- I have no regrets -- other than my concern about not being able to be more effective in preventing war.

If we can learn to use the 'free energy' ( ZPE -- Casimir effect ) that may break the bonds from our oppressors, since many wars are fought simply for natural resources. Once we are willing to give this knowlledge freely on the Internet ( already happening ) , it will no longer be suppressable. And -- once we have successfully colonized several planets/asteroids,etc., our future will be assured.

We must keep our faith in ourselves, no matter what happens, as that is more valuable by far than gold. We must all remember that that rare precious yellow material is nothing special, except that it forces our 'fiat' currency supporters into facing their own lies -- eventually.

It is not gold that is special. We are special.

(Sat May 16 1998 07:56 - ID#248180)
@ John Disney Auctions of Valuable - Logic
John, could not agree more. Your logic is sound and consistant with the traditions of mans pursuit to possess things that have lasting value. That same logic exists with all mankind and in the economic world of CB's, RB's, & BIS, thought they may report to the contrary.

We must not be swayed form the wisdom of simple sound logic. Though they may dismiss the wisdom of simple logic with expressions of "thats too simplistic", "it more complex" "your understanding is superficial" "are you an expert" etc etc.
Precious metals are EXTREMELY VALUABLE! Possess them, hold them and better yet OWN them in your control.

(Sat May 16 1998 08:00 - ID#248180)
@Corrections - Though they not thought
Must be the cheap brandy - I spell better when I am running on Premium Unleaded ABSOLUTE vodka. Pickles don't taste good with brandy.Cheers

(Sat May 16 1998 08:08 - ID#373284)
sharefin - gulp to ya, brilliant
I am a island boy in, ma,lay, lay, lay...peace, and yams...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:20 - ID#227168)
. Beautiful People
Who ever you are ---You live at the high end of beauty. Someone sent me an autographed poster of Bob Geldof by U.P.S The Happy Club  Guess talking at Kitco has some love. Thank You ---Gold is not everything Away to look at true human being

(Sat May 16 1998 08:26 - ID#373284)
a beautiful hour or two and into the water...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:40 - ID#227168)
The World Coming Home
I guess its a beautiful day ---If you live in Indonesia you might be shot or Sudan you might starve to death ---so grab that 24 of beer and be the true North American Away to absorb the Sun.

(Sat May 16 1998 08:44 - ID#233181)
Newmont(NEM) in Indonesia
I have been reading this newsgroup regularly for the past 6 months and have grown to respect its posters. I hope someone can help me.

I own NEM shares and am wondering, with the recent problems in Indonesia will Newmont's stock prices be negatively affected. They have 2 mines on islands about 1500 miles from Jakarta. Should I sell and get into a safer senior gold like ABX?

Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance


(Sat May 16 1998 08:45 - ID#373284)
Go spout your trivial trash, those of us that know more pity your patheic philosophy...grow up kid...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:47 - ID#373284)
Sit tight with NEM...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:49 - ID#411331)
@ALL: re. CB gold lease rates, yesterday a question was raised about the 1-2% lease rates that
a borrower must pay to central banks for leasing gold for 1 month. Is the 1-2% to be paid in gold, or paper? If the answer is paper, which flat money is permitted as payment? ( If flat payment for leased gold is
allowed, it explains the CB's hesitation for long term leasing of gold. )
I missed the answer to the above, or the question went unanswered. I
think the answer to this question is important.

(Sat May 16 1998 08:50 - ID#373284)
"However, as long as humans remain rational", ah yeah, tomorrows word, vitriolic...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:52 - ID#227168)
You found the wrong guy
Tolerant Let the Sun Shine In ---You are Forgiven

(Sat May 16 1998 08:57 - ID#340459)
Some interesting Articles on CB Sales and general forecast for POG

(Sat May 16 1998 08:58 - ID#373284)
I always had trouble with people that were plural...

(Sat May 16 1998 08:59 - ID#263379)
Miners - Collateralize your gold!

Mining companies have a massive tool to take production OUT OF THE MARKEt by using gold as collateral ( INVENTORY AND FUTURE PRODUCTION ) and maintaining that gold as inventory waiting for higher prices. If each gold miner announces this gambit, whether it be a minuscule amount or large amount, the public mindset about gold supply would change instantly. Each miner should make this announcement with every loan. The barrage of announcements should set fear of monumental proportions onto the shorts!
Miners cover your forward positions and CALLATERALIZE YOU GOLD!


(Sat May 16 1998 09:02 - ID#373284)
Ted -where ever you are...
A huge Cuervo Central GULP to ya! Namaste'

(Sat May 16 1998 09:20 - ID#227168)
The bugger with butane
Before I journey to Timmins to check for Platinum properties I must Say Who the hell is shorting my poor Canadian Dollars  Must be Eb ---killerofthecanadiandream

(Sat May 16 1998 09:30 - ID#432157)
Poorboys & Chas
Platinum/Palladium-Timmins Ont ( BAN-TSE ) Results in about 2 weeks .Company receiving calls from all over the world as to the status of the FIND.More when available.

(Sat May 16 1998 09:38 - ID#227168)
Always Looking
Geoffs Feel Free to e-mail me ---Will be in Timmins shortly to check out many properties

(Sat May 16 1998 09:41 - ID#254112)
@John Disney: Value of Gold / Can Auctions proof it?
Dear John:
I completely agree with you about the value of gold.
But that is not my point to be sceptical, if an approximation of the true market value of gold could be better realized through an auction.

I'm afraid it completely depends who would organize such an auction. Think it is organized by an institution with the intent to bring down the gold price even more.

Gold is the strongest enemy of the fiat money ideologues. They are powerful. Let's assume they feel that their time is running out. Let's assume they already know that only with gold confidence can be restored in the future.
What would they do?
I'm second guessing this:
They would organize one more event to convince the world that gold is worth sh*t. Because that's the best way to buy a lot of it for almost nothing. So they would organize a big auction and offering 500 tons of gold in lots of 10 tons.
They would prepare for this auction with big media trara that gold is anyhow not worth anything anymore and that now the big sell off starts.
And they do it all just to demonstrate to the world that gold isn't worth anything. This would create a climate for more cheap offers.
And the whole purpose is to finally convince the stupid European CB burocrats to sell all of their CB gold. And that's when the manipulators in the background really start buying dirt cheap. Thousands of tons.

Don't you think such dangers are in the bushes?

This is historically a good time for such grand scale manipulations.
Because the fiat currencies will have their breakdown. And we here at kitco are not the only ones who know that. The established feudal oligarchies have their think tanks where they can figure out strategies and the project plans to implement such strategies.

Why do you think the Rothschilds would want for the gold price to go up if they want to buy it? If they want to buy gold, and I'm convinced they want to, they will first use any means to bring it down even more. It's already on a ridiculously low level since many years. The world tolerates this insanity. It's a good precondition to make the world even more insane.

That's the danger. My hope is that gold has bottomed already. But I do not trust the situation in spite of many honest people and many midsized financial power houses ( like some oil producing countries ) that treasure gold. I take the fact that the current gold price is at $300 instead of $3,000 nad the DOW is at $9,000 instead of at $980 as proof that we live in a completely insane world. What can you expect in such a world?
A sudden turn to sanity?
The Rothschilds interested in high gold prices before they bought already enough?
Maybe they bought already enough. Then of course I would expect them to be interested for the price to go up. But IMHO, that's not yet the case.
The war on gold isn't over yet.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 16 1998 09:45 - ID#432157)
Poorboys something WRONG with your e-mail address it was returned

(Sat May 16 1998 09:56 - ID#252197)
human being
tolerant1: This is what a human being is whether

they are aware of it or not:

What am I

What am I my friend and my foe?

All that I've learned has been taught to me

All that I know has been revealed to me

The breath I breathe, a gift to me

This body, this earth has loaned to me

What am I, my friend, my foe, but a simple, humble,

beggar of love

(Sat May 16 1998 09:58 - ID#113316)
It never ceases to amaze me the ignorance of the media and certain analysts in the fundamentals of the gold market. CB "sales of gold" are not the major supply problem in the market nor have they shown a major year-by-year change. The CB "leases of gold" are the problem, and have shown an explosion in supply since their origination only a short time ago. The difference, of course, is that a "lease" expects the gold to be repaid sometime in the future. With the enormous gap between new supply and current demand, where is this gold going to come from if the CBs ever decide to call in their gold leases or even if they decide not to lease any more gold? The only outcome is widespread defaults and an illiquid market!

Making this entire transaction insidious is the low annual cost of a gold lease. In essence, it is a cheap way to raise money, i.e., borrow gold at the 1% to 2% annual rate, sell it and enjoy a low-interest loan. If the POG falls, all the better.

This is a sham transaction. IMHO, it will end badly with widespread defaults and a disrupted market. It is another sign of the ARROGANCE of the investment community that feels it has become so clever that it no longer needs the long standing safeguards that would prevent such a disaster from happening.

(Sat May 16 1998 10:12 - ID#238295)
golden explosion
preacher: Your 23:14 post siad it all on the "shortage' question. Plenty of yellow for commodity type uses. But a huge shortgage when the world starts to reject the NWO and greenback worship.

A sustained gold bull is out of the question as long as the rest of the world plays the US game and abides by US rules. But with foreigners now beginning to see the need for a new game with a new set of rules, the long-term outlook for gold is steadily improving. We have not reached critical mass yet. But the day of the golden explosion is not as far off as many think.

(Sat May 16 1998 10:27 - ID#263379)
MR. SILVERFOX just said it all. Those approximately 8,000 tons of leased gold is sold, sold, and gone forever to India, Italy and everywhere else.
That amount is just not available. What will the outcome be?
Probably an historic gold price rise and the worst nightmare for those in any kind of short position.
The miners that have minimized their forward positions will be smiling all the way to the bank, AND those with large forward positions will have a some profit from a much smaller pile of chips! Those forward positions really work against shareholders interests. They should cry loudly! IMVHO

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 10:33 - ID#24135)
Gold Auctions
For Alberich
I do not disagree that forces exist that wish to
drive the gold price down. However I disagree completely
on the auction issue. IF these guys could have
contrived a rigged action to buy more gold for themselves
at lower prices ... THEY WOULD HAVE. My point is that
the NATURE of an auction is OPEN BIDDING and the worms
we are speaking wont touch that in any way.
When auctions start, look for men like Buffet and
Gates to be there with trucks, and for Treasurers of
international Companies to buy in a big way to issue
their own Gold Backed corporate Bonds .. in competition
with Government Bonds, and in effect create their OWN
money via gold backed debt.
Gold Auctions may spell the end of CB, and with luck,
of Governments. IE.. privatise the Army, the Police Force,
and kiss off the politicians .. OBOY I LOVE AUCTIONS.

(Sat May 16 1998 10:44 - ID#254112)
@John Disney (Gold Auctions): If you would organize and prepare it with your
own public relations action, then I would trust it also and love to see it happen.
Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 16 1998 10:46 - ID#238422)
John Disney
You are absolutely correct, my brother.
Gold is a foundation of monetary system,
and we, brothers and non-brothers, can
not ignore this fact.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:00 - ID#411331)
@Silverfox et all: I have now plowed through a 40+ page study compiled by
the World Gold Council entitled: "Utilisation of Borrowed Gold by the Mining Industry; Development and Future Prospects" To summarize:

1 ) Gold leasing began about 10 years ago on a small scale for short durations.

2 ) At 1-2% lease rates, it was a cheap way to borrow money, compared to
prevailing money markets. The gold could then be sold, invested in
money market paper, and a profit made based on the difference between
lease rates and paper rates.

3 ) As the above strategy became known, more and more people borrowed
creating an effective sell off of CB gold ( now totalling 8000 tons )
that sweetened the game by adding effective short selling to the
pot as the spot POG declined, constantly.

4 ) Surprise! It was none other than the gold mining producers who
initiated and expanded ( both in volume and duration of lease ) the leasing game, as they
leasing actually financed new mine production, accelerated gold sales
and made short selling the new game in town. The artificial surge
in new gold supply drove the spot POG to 25 year lows. And all this
was happening despite the fact that new mine production was not
keeping up with world demand.

5. As the spot price was driven down by the leasing game, producers were
forced to sell forward their production, just to survive, further
flooding the spot market for gold. POG declined further under the
continued selling pressure.

Central Bank leasing is unlikely to cease in the near future, as it provides a return on investment for a static asset. But lease rates may rise, paticularly if one or more CBs get hit with a default on leased gold ( This may have begun with a recent article out of England re their
CB leasing practices ) Forward selling by producers has dropped with the
recent climb of spot gold from $278 to $314. and above all, the POG seems
to be slowly climbing back from its historic lows, meaning that leasees are going to have to sramble to cover short sales totalling 8000 tons or almost 2 1/2 years total world mine output. This won't bother gold producers who leased gold, as they can slowly replace it with newly mined
supplies, but what are all the speculators and gold funds going to do when CBs ask for their gold back? I think many will default, and the resulting scandals will finally awaken the public to the real gold supply
situation. Historic lows in gold prices = historic lows in physical supplies. And all this is going to happen when the EURO gold backing, DOW tanking, and Asian Financial instability converge. Am I mistaken or
is this a bullish scenario for gold? IMHO

(Sat May 16 1998 11:04 - ID#57232)
At work - quiet. The future of gold.
Old Gold: Perhaps I put too much money behind my mouth -- 30% in gold mutual funds Friday morning. But, the intermediate term gold cycle seems to have bottomed, and international news is bullish for gold with the India nuclear weapons bombshell. When more people read that Friday NewYork Times article about the contributions of the Chinese military to BC's presidential campaign, the background simmering will go up one notch. Also bullish for gold, bearish for the markets.

It is highly significant I think that this time the names of anti- Clinton information sources within the Justice department are being released. This can only mean one thing -- that there are now outspoken individuals within our government who are fed up with the current administration -- and the ranks are probably growing. Highly sensitive defense information normally routed through the Pentagon has been rerouted through the Commerce department -- bypassing normal security channels, on BC's official approval.

I am not against exchange of knowledge with China -- but only if is not militarily related. I guess the current administration has forgotten whose missles are pointed directly at us ( and on Washington DC ) . I would like mozel's advice on what presidency was more damaging to the security of the US ( and that of the world ) than our current one. Wait till the historians get their hands on BC. He may avoid criminal proceedings just as OJ did -- but the entire world will be his prison.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:15 - ID#280245)
The Subject is GOLD (surprise, surprise)
( 1 ) Singapores UOB ( Rated by Euromoney ) has Gold bank accounts galore!
Look at the handsome Singapore Lion...

( 2 ) Do not wish to make too much of this, but was struck by the phrase:
Bullion Delivery Privilege, which one had assumed all bullion banks/houses that not the case? Are some WITHOUT delivery privilege?

( 3 ) There appears to be rumblings over the WWII German Gold bonds...
the USG is dragging folks into court calling the bonds defaulted
fraud, but their own brief says the German government will pay the
bonds IF the holder can prove they were not stolen. Has anyone else heard/read about these German Gold bonds? There are open offers to purchase on several European sites...

( 4 ) Why, at least in the Orient, are London prices routinely referred to as LOCO London? Is LOCO an acronym? Or gentle humor? Or what?

( 5 ) Nicely done! Enjoyed that! {:- )

(Sat May 16 1998 11:21 - ID#57232)
After the (gold) turning point -- Frank Veneroso
All: When does FV's next weekly gold report come out? His posts have a Kitco kalming effect.

To everyone: No matter what happens over the next few months, it is ( I think ) unanimous that gold will not go down below $280/oz. Also, the US dollar is rising right now -- probably 'flight to safety'. AG will not dare raise rates at this time with such a strong dollar and weak world markets, IMHO. And, AG will not pull out all the stops this time if the markets tank -- he is afraid of a popped market bubble on his watch. Lets also not forget that we had a gold rally in 1993, and AG did not try to 'trounce' the gold market then.

So -- it makes sense to be long gold. All we need to watch for is a 'gold fire sale' from a country that still has alot of gold, and goes into a financial criss. Not too many of these left.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:23 - ID#238295)
Rhody: Very bullish indeed!

Reify: You have indeed been pretty hot lately. Hope your latest call is on the money as well.

JTF: The more nations that resist US and IMF hegemony, the more bullish the gold outlook. Wonder if India or other nations threatened by US sanctions might try to retaliate at some point by attmpting to squeeze the gold shorts.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:27 - ID#426220)

REF: rhody ( @Silverfox et all: I have now plowed through a 40+ page study compiled by WGC ) -

Succinct, precise, in-sightful... hit the nail right on the head!!!

It's just a matter of time before everyone's patience and gold accumulation will be more than amply rewarded... perhaps well
beyond all expectations.

Recent action in PLATINUM, AND ESPECIALLY PALLADIUM are sneak previews of
what will inevitably occur in GOLD & SILVER... and, of course, in
GOLD MINING STOCKS --- the latter appreciating overall 100s of percent,
and those highly leveraged - like some South African mines - perhaps even more than One Thousand Percent.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:28 - ID#238295)
JTF: I too doubt AG will hike rates. But he may raise margin requirements for stock purchases

(Sat May 16 1998 11:31 - ID#210235)
Thanks for the link. Bionomics is interesting, gave me some insights into Chaos that went far beyond economic theory. Every year they do seminars with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. I hope to attend the next one. Here's a link back at ya:

For an overview of chaos theory and how our ignorance of the chaos effect kept the blinders on, read James Gleich's Chaos: The Making of a Science. Reads like a good novel. Funny, but I feel that mystics and poets always realized that the chaos had to be addressed and respected, it was the scientists that missed it for so long.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:33 - ID#286279)
Going-Out-of-Business Sale
Was a time when the same business would have one at least once a year.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:33 - ID#410215)
..... Forward Sales .....

Rhody & All -

Why does the fact that gold is leased for forward sales always have to be some conspiracy? It is a commodity. Are farmers, selling forward grains or corn, part of a grand conspiracy to keep the price of grains down? No. He is locking in prices so he has predictability of revenue. This is how it is done. There is no conspiracy. Forward sales are necessary to properly produce any commodity.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:35 - ID#238295)
Morgan Stanley bullish on gold and gold shares.

From another thread:

100 Reasons to Buy Gold and Gold Equities
Morgan Stanley, U.S. and the Americas Investment Research - April 6

Reason #39. In the long term, the Asian crisis will re-establish gold's role as an unrivaled store of value; gold
held its value over the past year while currencies plunged 70% or more.

44. Liberalization of the gold markets in India and China continues to increase, providing increased access to
populaces with a high gold affinity.

48. Production from the largest gold-producing country, South Africa, is mired at a four decade low; average
cash costs of $300/oz are the world's highest.

49. Environmental and permitting restrictions are becoming increasingly burdensome in North America and
Australia; lower supply in the future.

50. Up to 70% of the world's gold production is uneconomic on a total cost basis at $300/oz gold; lower supply
in the future.

51. Worldwide exploration activity is down significantly; lower supply in the future.

52. Mine closures/reductions increasing ( e.g., Mount Todd, Lupin, Homestake, McCoy Cove, Paddington,
Colomec, Hope Brook, Freegold ) .

53. Mid-1997 labor accord in South Africa has cleared the way for labor reductions and shaft closures.

54. Mine supply was artificially high in 1997 due to high-grading - the high grading was done at the expense of
mine lives and is largely unsustainable.

55. There have been few major technological breakthroughs in gold mining since heap leaching in the 1980s;
none appear to be on the horizon.

83. Possibility that a Buffet-like figure could go long gold and trigger a rally as Buffet did for silver.

87. Comex short interest is 10-15% off its 1997 highs, but . . .

88. . . . funds are still solidly short; they'll rush to cover when the tide really turns.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:36 - ID#286279)
or half asleep; did my alarm clock radio say, "...more guns, less crime...FBI...?"

(Sat May 16 1998 11:37 - ID#43460)
Little known factor effecting gold price?
Every time I buy gold my wife goes out and buys new furniture, saying, "you don't mind, do you? After all it only costs a little and at least we can sit in it." So plus commissions, taxes, fees and markup I have to calculate the cost of furniture into the equation as well! The week we're getting a couch. Or should I say OUCH! I should be happy though. I have a friend who has two girlfriends ( no wife ) and he can't afford gold at all.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:39 - ID#210235)
@SDRer, Rhody
Thanks for taking the time and sharing your research with us. Your generosity and that of so many others here is greatly appreciated.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:40 - ID#210235)
It's the guys with two girlfriends AND a wife who really get in over their heads!

(Sat May 16 1998 11:44 - ID#57232)
Opinions on FV's commentary, please?
RJ: You are very bearish on gold right now. Is that your traders focus? days? weeks? -- which I know you are very good at. How about months? The CB's cannot loan out more gold forever, and the US dollar cannot keep rising forever. Eventually the dollar/gold carry trade will unravel, will it not? And -- if our us markets run out of steam, the smart money such as the Warren Buffett types will gravitate to gold.

I am having a hard time integrating your comments with those of Frank Veneroso's. Especially since our two year gold bear has clear signs of ending - to anyone with a transparent ruler.

Thanks in advance.

(Sat May 16 1998 11:53 - ID#342315)
Aberecht re auction
Very appropriate thoughts on auction et al. But in my view it all depends on how the auction is organized and merchandise. And naturally when it is held. This will take a good deal more thought. Charlie

(Sat May 16 1998 11:57 - ID#410215)
..... Quick Stuff .....

Arden -

Your comment that," not everyone on this forum is trading the wiggles and waggles of a COMEX chart." Cuts to the heart of the differences in how I approach this market. My view is tactical. My horizons are a month or two out. I have a lot of clients who believe in holding physical gold ( as do I ) and I have been happy to recommend gold for delivery at these levels. Gold is cheap now. If one wants to buy and hold, now is the time to do it.

Thanks for the compliment.

JD -

What did you download and from where to boost speed? I too tried the MTU search, but came up with nothing. I want to be speedy too, please help

James 2 @ 6:00 -

With an outlook like yours, may I suggest a quick overdose of something? If we are all so doomed, why wait around for the ugly end?


I have much to respond to you about. I will do so later toady or tomorrow

(Sat May 16 1998 12:01 - ID#342315)
Geoffs re Ban
Thanx a bunch. Looks like a live wire. I'm going to try Poorboys before he goes. I think you've got on to a good lick, Charlie. PS have not got the man yet at BAN. Will keep you informed

(Sat May 16 1998 12:03 - ID#410215)
..... JTF .....

Toady = Today

(Sat May 16 1998 12:05 - ID#57232)
Bionomics and chaos theory
Promethius: Thanks for posting this URL! This is right out of the original Santa Fe institute mold! I have been looking for something current in the chaos theory approach to economics. Traditional economists are further removed from reality than market traders, who see the dynamic process of the markets every day. When I saw what one can do with a market driven by several thousand artificial intelligences, each with their own primitive buy /sell rules, I instantly realized that this was the right approach, and why most traditional economists don't have a clue what is really happening. Even large markets where many undercurrents average out cannot be treated with the traditional economic approach, as the really wild events everyone wants either to gain from, or avoid, are the ones where the hidden currents suddenly surface. If one understands the hidden eddies and flows, one will begin to understand the markets as the traders do -- they are living entities -- not the dead sterile ones of the traditional economists.

Strangely enough, quantum mechanics is very similar to this. But -- I guess it should be, shouldn't it? The rules of our world ( reality ) seem to apply at all levels in a similar manner - from the atomic level to the galactic level. Amazing, isn't it!

(Sat May 16 1998 12:05 - ID#411331)
@ RJ et all: Re. the World Gold Council study, I did not mean to imply in my summary
that there was a conspiracy in the leased-forward sales-POG loop. I was attempting to convey a summary of the WGC conclusions.
Leasing gold for sale is a short term mechanism for profit and forward selling is a short term mechanism to spread risk, but both of these practices do exaggerate the near term supply of gold, and drive the long term POG downward, even though if both practices were banned, we would be in a instant chronic shortage of gold supply, because new mine production in less than consumption. There is no conspiracy. There is a dichotomy between short term thinking and long term thinking, between short term gain and long term pain. And that's not a conspiracy, but it is IMHO.

(Sat May 16 1998 12:05 - ID#410215)
..... JTF .....

Which work by Frank Veneroso are you referring to?

(Sat May 16 1998 12:06 - ID#113316)
Yes, forward selling is a natural transaction for any commodity. But how does a new gold mine determine the amount of gold to sell? Is it based upon a realistic evaluation of the expected production from that mine, or is it actually based upon the cost of opening the mine? IMVHO, the sheer volume of forward sales implies that unrealistic expectations are behind at least some of these sales.

Keep in mind that if CBs are only getting 1% to 2% return, it doesn't take many defaults to wipe out the entire return. My memory is that Bank of England indicated that 10% of its gold leases were in default or in danger of default ( would like confirmation of this ) .

The rising price of gold will unravel the attractiveness of forward sales, lease agreements, and many financial instruments dreamed up by the financial community. They're great when things are going your way, but result in immediate bankrupcy when things go against you ( case in point, Orange County and derivatives ) .

When gold starts to rally, then we will see the true nature and impact of gold leasing.

(Sat May 16 1998 12:09 - ID#410215)
..... The Beach Awaits .....

Producers are traders like everybody else. If they see the price rising, they simply buy back some of their forward sales. They are pretty smart folks, yes?



(Sat May 16 1998 12:09 - ID#342315)
Poorboys re Timmins
I remember old Kirkland Lake and the TE potential. Do you have experience with tellurides? When you go to BAN, how about keeping an eye out for TE. It would be very rare to have PT/TE minerals, but in my experience it is possible. Anything you could come up with, from zero to ? would be greatly appreciated. Many Thanx, Charlie

(Sat May 16 1998 12:10 - ID#286279)
I exported registry to a file and by chance named it "regbak", clicking on it to have a look- it didn't open, uh oh, it was incorporated! I'm still here so apparently nothing bad happened. Never was able to find MTU in the registry. Going to look for one of them utilities...

(Sat May 16 1998 12:18 - ID#254269)
Namaste' ; tolerant 1, thanks for your 1.03, which I just saw. At 1.03 I was not thinking about
Kitco ( or anything else for that matter ) . You're a good man, Charlie Brown .

(Sat May 16 1998 12:19 - ID#254269)
Sunday morning news shows should be real interesting

(Sat May 16 1998 12:21 - ID#254269)
Stolen Gold; (Leland's 3.46)
Some of that gold ended up at Kitco ?

(Sat May 16 1998 12:28 - ID#411331)
@SILVERFOX: Bravo. You have said it all. Some mines have sold forward their entire
production for 10 to 12 years. How's that for artificially flooding he supply side! All markets are cyclical, and the fact that this market has
been depressed to 25 year lows by artificial means merely presents an
opportunity to buy in at exceptionally depressed prices. We must remember that at the other end, this market when it goes is just as likely to become overbought. We must take care not to cash out too soon.
Buying in is often easier than selling out. We can see where we have been, but not where we are going!

(Sat May 16 1998 12:28 - ID#433422)
Fiat collapse, emerging gold dollar, confiscation(not), Y2K
If E-money collapses, The Fed will need their gold reserves just as badly as anybody else. They must know that we are not the trusting sheep we were in 1934-35, they must know we'd tell 'em to piss up a rope if they "demanded" our gold.
You are not the only one who truely believes in the value of holding precious metals for times of economic insecurity.Every govornment in the world keeps gold reserves. Since "gold no longer holds value in relation to FIAT money",why do you think the words govornments still adhere to the philosophy of "gold reserves"?
Commerce is not just necessary for a sembelance of living comfort, it is critical for national security as well. Our federal govornment ( s ) , as rotton and corrupted as they may be, is still paramountly concerned about our dominant position as supreme military leader on the face of the planet.
History shows us that fiat money systems actually take quite a while to establish out of p.m. based systems. They also require the confidence of the masses.
Lastly, history is full of examples of civilizations rising to "world" dominance utilizing pm based economies and falling into extinction upon implementing fiat currencies. The big difference between this civilization and those past is we HAVE ACCESS to that historical information like
To fight the collapse of this fiat economy seems to me to be akin to screaming at your dead uncle to "GET UP!" while he's lying in his coffin. If electronic money disappears for even a short time, the Fiat Dollar will be dead, and the Gold Dollar will be back. This will last until an administration comes back into power that has no direct experience with fiat collapse and believes they can beat the fundamental economic laws.
Anyway 1MHO, I do not believe the Fed will want to try to confiscate gold, the'll more likely be content to get it from you via taxes, more specifically a national sales tax. Much less likely to incite major revolt and doesn't rely on a collapsed beurocracy ( namely the IRS ) .

(Sat May 16 1998 12:32 - ID#28593)
A. Goose --stumbled over a dollop of historical data from LBMA (not much, but a start?)
LBMA draws gold curtain

The London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) broke with its long tradition of secrecy this week by revealing that the average daily volume of gold cleared in London in the December quarter of 1996 was approximately 30 Moz ( 933 t ) , valued at US$10 billion. This compares
with annual global mine production of about 2,300 t. Although London
is known to be the main centre for clearing gold trades, the size of
the figure is surprisingly large. The total for silver cleared daily
is 250 Moz ( 7,775 t ) .

re: LOCO London --no doubt locus in quo??? Interesting flotsam
( or would that be jetsam? ) {:- ) )

(Sat May 16 1998 12:35 - ID#284255)
Question - which one is real?

Prometheus, JTF
Reality in a new perspective - Bionomics
Hungry for more.
Dad too.

(Sat May 16 1998 12:38 - ID#43460)
If I remember my W95 experiance ( mostly forgotton due to trauma of the event ) MTU is found in the setup for new dial-in ppp, if that helps any.

(Sat May 16 1998 12:40 - ID#254112)
@rhody (the World Gold Council study)
Thanks for your summary. I found it very interesting.

One special aspect struck my mind about leasing gold.
When you lease a car or a house or a computer you cannot sell it.
Obviously, that's not the case when you lease 10 tons of gold.
You can sell it.

Which must means: gold is leagally treated like money.
Because when you borrow money you can "sell" the money, i.e., exchange it for something else. The promise to pay money back is principally different from promising to return a leased car. For both you promise to give it back. For both you pay interest or a lease rate. But the car you're not supposed to sell and buy it back before you have to return it.

With gold you obviously can do it. Lease it, sell it ( i.e., sell what you don't own! ) , buy it back and return it after the buyback to the original owner. Isn't that like exchanging your dollars into a different currency?

Of course it is: think of the Yen-Dollar-carry! That's principally the same thing like the dollar-gold-carry.

So, the CBs treat gold like money. Is this a legitimate conclusion?
Well, it is money!


(Sat May 16 1998 12:52 - ID#411331)
@ chas: gold-tellurides are a low to medium hydrothermal ore-genesis elements, while platinum group
metals are a high temperature, magmatic segregation in ore genesis. An ore body is a geologic freak. The probability of a given mineral occurrance being economic are about one in one thousand. SO, the probability that two ore-genesis events could be superimposed to produce a gold telluride/platinum orebody are 1/1000 X 1/1000 = one in one million or .0000001! Good Luck.

(Sat May 16 1998 13:02 - ID#411331)
@ ALBERICH: Re leasing gold (money) from CBs. I agree, the CBs are treating gold like money!
It is money!, but money that is lent at ridiculously low interest rates.
These people are naive suckers! Don't they know that lending rates must cover the cost of potential defaults??????????! MY QUESTION: ( AND ONE THAT NO ONE HAS YET ANSWERED ) "HOW IS THE LEASE RATE PAID, IN FLAT OR
IN GOLD????????????!"

(Sat May 16 1998 13:03 - ID#22956)
interesting stuff regarding PA. Removing all limits?? the moon?





(Sat May 16 1998 13:11 - ID#113316)
Futures Contract
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you cannot buy back a futures contract unless you find someone willing to sell it to you. When the forward sales, gold lease problem rears its ugly head, it will be impossible to do so!

(Sat May 16 1998 13:20 - ID#254112)
@SILVERFOX (Futures Contract)
Of course you are right. And be sure you will find someone. It's just a question of how much you must pay this someone. You might need to pay more and then you are burnt.


(Sat May 16 1998 13:21 - ID#256326)
The accompanying chart ( I hope! ) is an Elliott wave count I have been working from for quite a while. I feel that Friday's action helps to confirm it. As I mentioned very briefly last night, gold is very sneaky and seems always to take out the ugliest number you can think of before going up. I really did not "want" to see it retrace more than 50% of the last upleg, and certrainly no more than 63%, but it did. It just has to rub our noses in it first...;- ) ) )
Best wishes all. Will be back in a few weeks.

(Sat May 16 1998 13:22 - ID#22956)
......DJ the channel Master......
Once again thanks for the weekly DJchannels. They are always a print. One thing though with regards to your commentary on plat. Let us review:


Platinum - By including the absolute low last December in the channel, it is possible to construct a new

upward-trending channel that contains platinum's price action. Its a bit of a stretch. However, despite PL's recent

jump, it still seems quite anemic to me. There is absolutely no reason I can think of why PL should not have soared

to a new high following PA up. In fact, at its current level, it is barely touching the top of the steeply

downward-trending channel I had previously drawn. As PA backs off from its high, it seems to me that PL will

back off as well. I'm going to stay on the sidelines awhile longer ( and will probably regret it ) .


When making your channels it is only fair to include the Dec lows. I don't understand the stretch at all. It looks right. I think it would have been wrong NOT to include it. When you do this that chart looks AMAZING. You have outdone yourself. When you reversed yourself after the last highs I peeled off a few myself and thanked you for it ( many times over to myself ) . I trust you liquidated your shorts when you say you are on the sidelines, yes? The time is right to reverse yourself again. The fact that Plat has not soared in unison does not ( imo ) make it all that anemic. ALL attention has been on PA and PL has made good progress from those who sell it to the dirt. I believe they are waking up to what will be the inevitable rise of Plat. RJ and I talked at length on the phone and his theories/understandings of these two metals is quite expansive and LOGICAL ( i 'dig' logical scenarios ) . Perhaps he will be sooooo kind as to give a short explanation as to why PL will benefit from PA rise. ( he has already but perhaps for the peopleo not paying attention the first time ) .

"And as PA backs off it's high's..."......whoa ( ! ) stop right there. Why would PA back off it's highs? What has changed with the supply/demand equation to say that PA is going ANYWHERE but UP?? PA will trade at lofty heights for a time, yes. ( not to sound like an RJ clone, however, there ain't no PA to sell....... ) And from what I just read and posted in an 'after trading report' it is not likely to go down anytime soon. This has just started hotttttting UP.

I would also like to note with regards to Platinum. Using NYMEX charts I see the beginning of a wedgie/triangle being formed in Plat. If monday is a couple-o-buck down day then I will be even more convinced and will be the most raving Platinum BULL on this planet ( i am getting real close now ) .......I would love to see that triangle.....uh huh. YES. OK. w/w


(Sat May 16 1998 13:25 - ID#254112)
@SILVERFOX (Futures Contract) more thing: the mines
which sell future contracts have also the choice to deliver instead of covering the short. We normal people do not have this choice.
When the short contract expires there are two ways to cover it. But it must be covered.


(Sat May 16 1998 13:30 - ID#31868)
Well put...gulp to ya...

(Sat May 16 1998 13:32 - ID#22956)
all the same to me.....
wedgie=triangle=PENNANT=let's make a heap lot-o-cash.......YES.

Perhaps I should adjust a sentence in my last post regarding the couple-o-buck down day Monday. It should read: If we see a small rise and small fall and it closes close to the day before 'settle' price than it will be ANOTHER piece to the PENNANT puzzle. But, of course, if we see a BIG rise in price-o-Plat on Monday then throw this Pennant Post out the window and sit back and enjoy the show......either way sit back and enjoy the show......for it will be wrought ( big pun ) with fireworks....UH....HUH. the charts


(Sat May 16 1998 13:33 - ID#238422)
Looks like some little positive development took place.
RYO will get cash, of course this cash is gonna be expensive,
Can't imagine exact outcome of RYO story, but I like the
fighting spirit of RYO people. May be we shall overcome
some day...

It's high time for them to discover 10-15 mil.oz of new
reserves, would not hurt the company at all...

Please, RYO, discover those reserves....

(Sat May 16 1998 13:34 - ID#153102)
@Let's Suppose
You have the gold and your daughter is married to a potato chip maker. But, he is struggling to make ends meet since he is a high cost producer..

So, to help matters you confidentially offer loans to all of the other potato chip makers at very reasonable rates. Each of them looks at the numbers and says here is a chance to expand and get richer. So, they do expand, but the oversupply of potato chips depresses the price and instead of getting rich they get called by you for loan repayment. They can't pay. You get the facilities - cheap. You give your daughter's husband a loan to buy them and everybody lives happily ever after. Well, almost everybody.

Thoughts like these probably never occur to people who have politically correct views of the word conspiracy. But I look at gold leasing and foreclosures in SE Asia and have these kind of thoughts. Bad Mozel.

Dis-Hoarding of Gold or selling of Gold by a CB is a one time shot to the supply side. Honest Leasing of CB Gold is also a one time shot to the supply side. Dishonest Leasing of CB Gold would a one time shot to the supply side with a fractional reserve multiplier. BIS frowns upon CB's that have over committed Gold put up as pledge for settlement. I mean you cannot Lease Gold and put the same Gold up as your pledge at the same time consequence-free if you are found out by BIS.

Reportedly if there are more than two defaults per one hundred leases, all of the interest will be lost. And the vaults will be permanently reduced by two leases worth of gold. This will likely damage your credit rating.

Now, leasing gold to miners and buying forward production of gold are interesting propositions. If I had a gold mine, I would do it. Hell, I don't know where the vein ends, but you, offerror of gold on lease and the buyer of my forward sale contract, think you do. You can't make a slave out of me if I default. So, I will sell lease and forward as long as you will offer gold and buy forward. If I can't deliver, all you are going to get is a worked out mine. ( Does the phrase High Grading in 1997 ring a bell. ) And I'll be clipping coupons from Government Bonds somewhere. ( This is the vision, the dream, the lure, of usury everywhere, the ultimate lifestyle of something for nothing. )

CB leasing and the trading of paper gold on a par risk with physical gold at LBMA are just government manipulation of a currency market. Keeping gold down is keeping the $US up, as a reserve currency and as a vehicle into stores of value like stocks, bonds, and real estate. Seems to me that simple. But people like Soros and Rotschild know you don't resist; you help the CB's along in the direction they want to go and look for the opportunity. Well, shorting gold was the first opportunity. The other opportunity was to pick up mine properties cheap. Then go back for the Intermediate Grade at a good profit when the price rises. Rotschild is ready for it to rise.

Does anybody else see that this has all worked out to the benefit of the high cost producers like the son in law in potato chips ?

(Sat May 16 1998 13:39 - ID#411331)
@silverfox: That is a question that you should pose to RJ, who is Kitco's
leading expert on the metal's trade. If leasing/forward-selling/spot POG is a negative growth spiral ( negative feedback loop? ) then the reverse must also be true. The question is, how and when will the loop be broken? My best guess would be:

1 ) POG rises because of mine closures/supply interuption, or financial market turmoil, or high gold backing of EURO causing flight from US$ or war in S.E. Asia/Middle East, or DOW tanks and there is a flight from non-quality. Pick one or all! Did I forget anything? Y2K?

2 ) Mining industry stops forward selling because no new mines need cheap
financing using leased gold, and most mines realize that forward selling is shooting themselves in the bottom line.

3 ) Leasing rates skyrocket as some shorts default on returning leased gold, possibly because of shorting other metals that turn north like
silver ( which has stronger fundamentals than gold ) or platinum/paladium ) It does not matter what causes short speculators
to be ruined by rises in metal prices, it will cause a chain reaction of bankruptcies that deprive CBs of a large fraction of the 8000 tons of the yellow stuff loaned out. Heads will roll, and lease rates will head starward.


(Sat May 16 1998 13:43 - ID#373403)
Transfer of missile technology to China
This does not seem to have broken the mainstream press in a big way. It appears to be a major breech by the Clinton administration. It also seems to be the kind of issue worthy of bipartisan condemnation.

Do you all get the sense that Clinton will be treated harshly for this or will spin once again win the day?

(Sat May 16 1998 13:44 - ID#22956)
OK.......I'll say it quick...
And perhaps it has been said here once or twice ( I know it has ) . The BIG auto manufacturers cannot wait for Palladium to put in their converters and they cannot rely on Pall from Russia. It takes many times more Palladium to make a catalytic converter than it does Plat. And with Palladium now as much as Plat and rising..........well, you make the call. The auto dudes have retooled their machinery and are not going to get stuck with their pants down again and will make the switch to Platinum. This new buying will have a direct impact on the price-o-plat. It changes the supply/demand equation which will have a direct influence on price...... ( duh ) .

The Roooooskies have NOT ( officially ) delivered ANY PGM's ALL YEAR! This is the same picture as last year......the same.....only this time I think it may be a little more desperate......YES.

ANYONE?? Please respond. RJ.....please add.

away...uh huh.


(Sat May 16 1998 13:44 - ID#28593)
Mozel..."bad Mozel" ? The first error ever spotted in a Mozel post!
au contraire...VERY BRIGHT mozel, VERY IMPORTANT Mozel who wields a
VERY SHARP pruning saw, which he is using to clear a path! Step by step...{:- )

(Sat May 16 1998 13:46 - ID#411331)
@oris: Ahmen: RYO has much gold in reserves, but it tends to be
expensive ( over 350$/oz ) Kemess has made it into production and there are exciting exploration prospects in the vicinity of that mine and in
the USA. The Kemess intrusive cuts limestone and there is potential for
copper/gold skarn orebodies on the fringes of the intrusive body.

(Sat May 16 1998 13:48 - ID#256326)
An eloquent analysis of a subject I have posted on and for which I was blasted by a local cheerleader. Just one small part of it is the cornering of the gold mine business just as your chip industry saga shows. Although I know Pegasus is not the perfect example of outcomes based on such analysis, I felt at the time that it demonstrated one possible end for the weaker forward sellers. I do feel that many of the better miners will end up being owned by the very wealthy and clever as a result of gold loans being called.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:00 - ID#252127)
Mozel; Speaking of chips

You make a lot of sense.

John Disney__A
(Sat May 16 1998 14:01 - ID#24135)
RYO could find those reserves..
that you speak of ..
My brother Oris..
if they would look in South Africa ..

(Sat May 16 1998 14:05 - ID#153102)
@Let's Suppose Corporations Are The Children of Government
And then consider loans, expansion, and foreclosures in another chip industry besides potato chips. My plot thickens.

Of course, for these things to work out, the son in law has to keep his mouth shut and maybe act like he is borrowing to expand, too.

So, on the world stage who were the suckers in gold mining and who were the son in laws ?

(Sat May 16 1998 14:16 - ID#57232)
Frank Veneroso
RJ: Several Kitcoites have posted two Canarc conferences by FV ( Ihave these on my home computer ) . There have been several updates -- there is a weekly newsletter, as well -- also periodically posted. His newsletter costs $8000/year, if you did not already know, and he does seem to know his stuff. However, he is a 'big picture' kind of guy -- not a trader. So -- his knowledge is of more value to the long term investor types like many of us. I am really this type too, but I am slowly learning to trade also - with funny money.

Of course, if you are trying to guess the timing of a major gold rally, like the one we are about to have sometime in the next 6-12 months or so, his fundamental information about CB gold sales may be quite useful.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:20 - ID#427357)

Dr. Paul Hein has again shared his Churchillian logic and clarity with us. This time it is to reveal the uncanny resemblance of the control of WATER CONSUMPTION to the bankers' control of MONEY.

Dr. Hein cites the following as part support of his thesis: Sir Josiah Stamp, former president of the Bank of England, put it this way: "Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money and control credit, and with a flick of a pen they will create enough to buy it back." Dr. also remembers a pertinent comment by the first Rothschild: "Give me the power to issue a nation's money; then I do not care who makes the laws."

Dr. Hein's logic is again expressed in simple terms - a very thought provoking read. OH, remember it is necessary to delete the extra letter "b" in the URL before calling it up:

(Sat May 16 1998 14:20 - ID#153102)
@The Favored Sons in Law
I propose they are in the Republic of South Africa.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:29 - ID#153102)
@Bankers Buying The Earth Back
They won't. They will get it back by usury. And the reason they don't care who makes the laws is that a contract is private law between the parties. They just need an enforcer.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:34 - ID#57232)
My wife is just like yours
gagnrad: Funny, isn't it? Bought her a gold coin for her birthday, but made it into jewelry by getting a gold ring clamp and a necklace. That she liked, although she thinks it is too expensive to wear. Our better halves usually have good sense -- mine does. She does like it when the gold mutual funds go up -- then I can do no wrong. But -- when they go down, that is quite another story.

If we cannot convince our own wives about the gold vs fiat currency situation, it is no wonder most of the human world thinks we are oddities, or gloomer and doomers. The fiat currency/bull market mania will end with a sudden crash, with little warning. And who knows when? Y2k? 2005, 2010, 2015? It will happen.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:39 - ID#429121)
Response to Monex post
My little tongue-in-cheek bashing of Monex's sponsoring of this site generated a HUGE response from folks who had similar negative experiences! WOW! And they weren't shy about naming names!

Anyone else out there have "amusing little anecdotes"?

Would love to hear from you...

(Sat May 16 1998 14:48 - ID#57232)
mozel: I like your reasoning. Usury in the wrong hands is a dangerous weapon. In the modern world, Attilla the Hun might have been a lender. Just as effective, and not as risky to ones skin. There is alot to be said to the Middle Eastern approach to loans, isn't there? -- as several have posted at Kitco. The banks should profit only when the lender makes money, not coming and going.

I like the old chinese approach to medicine as an analogy. The doctor only got paid when the patient was healthy. He was expected to take care of everyone in his care when they were sick -- for free.

Profit motive is a strong incentive for human endeavor. But the rules must be such that no one can take unfair advantage of another.

(Sat May 16 1998 14:52 - ID#427357)

Ted Butler does it again - a masterpiece of precious metal common-sense logic. He has insightfully analyzed why Warren Buffett made his monumental purchase of more than 100,000,000 ounces of SILVER last year.

Furthermore, Butler details why we all should express heartfelt thanks to the legendary ORACLE FROM OMAHA. Mr. Butler relates: "The reason silver investors should be feeling a sense of gratitude to Mr. Buffett is for a number of factors, some obvious, others perhaps not so obvious.

Butler describes the numerous factors in his report "THANK YOU, Mr. BUFFETT," which may be read at following URL - but remember it is necessary to delete the extra letter "b" in the word "beagle" before calling it up:

(Sat May 16 1998 15:08 - ID#339274)
Key turning point dates
FWIW June 15 and 25 are dates to watch as they are close to
each other ,they will create fast price movements in those
weeks.July 30 is the other turning point date,this date
will be a bottom.The foregoing implies that June 15 and 25
are serving as tops.Could be a very interesting two weeks indeed.
To conclude ,July 30 will serve as a safe starting point.Have
a great weekend and happy trading.

(Sat May 16 1998 15:11 - ID#388209)
SHAMANS.....? We don't need no stinken SHAMANS !
Did you catch the Reuters report that a leading expert on Dutch post-impressionism has pronounced "Sunflowers" as a fraud ! Japan's Yasuda Fire & Marine Insurance Co. Ltd., paid $40,000,000.00 in 1987 for it as an original Van Gogh ! Turns out it is not worth the canvas it's painted on.
"Gee Wally, I wonder how much worthless paper they are holding of still life paintings of the US Treasury Building ?"
Me thinks that the Japanese better unload some of their portfolio before some other "expert" comes along & re-evaluates the rest of their US "Art Collection" !
Forget the SHAMANS, but fire up the flesh pots any way ! Camdessus is a fat one & RR is nothing but skin & bones. A perfect dish for Jack Spratt & Spouse !



(Sat May 16 1998 15:21 - ID#270172)
Interesting Article on Gold
Have enjoyed lurking --

(Sat May 16 1998 15:31 - ID#153102)
A Comparison of Constants
There is some constant involved in what we call gravity which Newton quantified with equations. Now, people will say, it's not a constant because better measuring devices detect variation. But, I say, the apple always falls. And when it doesn't, I will give up my position on the constant in gravity. Now, I think Newton showed that something is more or less measurable depending on the size of the masses involved. There is something operating in Nature there in a predictable way and the fact it is predictable is evidence of its constancy. So far, as Hume proved.

Now, here we have an intellectual Law of Nature based on thinking about observations and measurements and confirmed by prediction proved by experiment. This we call a product of Science.

Mozel announces another constant: the operation of this constant is studied by economists, bankers, government finance ministers, and investors. It has been quantified by equations just like the gravity constant. As with the gravity constant, changes to variables can be measured. But it is not a constant in physical nature. It is the constant that operates when Ten is Lent to be paid back with Eleven. It is a constant working through numbers for which there is a Moral Law.

The Law of this constant was revealed to Moses and it says, "Don't engage in usury; it is not a good thing for mankind. As I am a loving God I reveal this Law to you. If you worship in the temple of the false god Baal and practice the usury of that religion, you will be sorry that you were disobedient to the Law I have revealed to you because you will lose your land and flocks and end up a slave of Baal." ( In addition, I think this Law has been confirmed by prediction proved by experiment, but that's from history and intellectually disputable. ) Belief in this Law from God by Moses we call superstition or naivete' or religious fanaticism as contrasted with Science.

Knowledge of Moral Law is passe'. The magic performed by compound interest is a much more believable evidence of a god than any proving the existence of the unseen God of Moses. So far.

Got Freedom ?

(Sat May 16 1998 15:37 - ID#238295)
MC: That bearish NY Times article appeared just a few days before gold troughed. Followed the Andy Smith-Ted Arnold mantra right down the line.

(Sat May 16 1998 15:54 - ID#57232)
Tops and bottoms
Cyclist: I have a question for you. What do your tops and bottoms tell you in a trending gold market? EG, are these intermediate-term turning points, where the bottoms are buys in an uptrending market, and the tops are sells in a downtrending market? What I am getting at is the question of what lattitude you have in your predictions. For example, with some prediction methods the prediction has several interpretations. How about yours?

By the way, I am impressed.

(Sat May 16 1998 15:57 - ID#238295)



Gold May Appeal To Asias Central Banks
Reuters - April 9

Asian central banks may see gold as a weapon to defend their local currencies when foreign exchange speculators attack the
currencies, some bullion traders said today.

An Asian trader said central banks in Asia whose currencies suffered speculative attacks in recent months may have bought Belgian
gold, seeing it as a weapon to defend their local currency.

Gold from the Trader's Perspective
Harold Kamins, Head, Precious Metals Trading Group
Morgan Stanley Gold Conference - April 14

For the first time in several years, I think there are a lot of reasons to be cautiously optimistic. I might even use the word "bullish"
right now.

First, speculative interest in the gold market has turned to the positive side, at least for now.

Second, concerning the effect of the establishment of the European Monetary Union on the price of gold, our consensus is that gold
is likely to be 10-15% of international official reserves. Even what you might say is a neutral number, 10-15%, I think actually will
turn out to be a bullish factor for the market because it will simply remove uncertainty. We also believe more and more that further
European central-bank sales are doubtful for at least a year.

Third, turning to the mining companies, there are some bullish factors in terms of the impact of mine hedging. First, the price of
gold in Australian dollars is the highest it's been since November 1996 and we've seen very little hedging; so the miners are holding
back to some extent; they are looking for even higher prices. Furthermore, there are a lot of positions left to get covered and these
could get covered very, very quickly and contribute to our increase in the price.

Let's look now at what might happen in a rising gold market. For instance, there have been large volumes of hedging done with the
spot price somewhere in the range of $300-325 an ounce. In the event of a rising market, you certainly will see some mines come
into the market and cover their positions, not wanting to give away the upside if they see a sharp rise in the price of gold.

Another element is that a lot of the hedging that has been done at lower prices has been leveraged by options to give acceptable
prices. This might have a positive feedback effect on the market if, as the price goes up, these mines decide that they really don't like
this levered position in the newly rising market.

Another thing to consider is that more of the hedge volume has been done with a floating lease rate. Basically, mines are selling spot
gold and rolling their position forward. The reason they do this is because of the dividend that you get from being short gold and
rolling your position forward. You ride a very steep contango in the market if you roll very short-term in the gold, and you can
increase your effective hedge price. If, for some reason, there is actually a squeeze on spot gold and a lack of gold being lent to the
market, you might see an acceleration in the increase in the price of the spot gold as a result of the hedging being done with a floating
lease rate.

The London Letter
Yorkton Securities Inc. - April 20

On the question of how much gold will go into ECB reserves, if it is lower than expected, then it will not be because there has been
a loss of faith in gold. On the contrary, it will indicate a desire by national central banks to hold on to their most precious asset and
not to put it into the high-risk melting pot of European Monetary Union.

(Sat May 16 1998 15:58 - ID#256326)
Newtonian law
In his role as chancellor of exchequer, Sir Isaac set the price of gold at 3.17s.10 1/2d. per troy ounce in 1717. I wonder what the "Dow"/gold ratio was in 1720 when the Mississippi/South Seas bubble burst? Except for minor fluctuations when Napoleon escaped from Elba and during the US Civil War, gold remained quite close to Newton's price for over 200 years. Not quite as durable as gravity, but not bad either. Newton is said to have lost his fortune in the 1720 bubble. ( Some of this from Timothy Green's "The Prospect for Gold: the View to the year 2000", 1987. )

(Sat May 16 1998 16:07 - ID#256326)
Cyclist, JTF
Thanks for the cycle updates. There is also a very important cycle date of 6/3/98. This date ties via the the Spiral Calendar ( tm ) series to the 3/11/93 gold bottom, and also via the "C" additive series to the great 4/28/42 end of the stocks and commodity bear markets from 1929 ( earlier for commodities ) . Given the manner in which these earlier dates started major moves, I would expect liftoff for gold.

(Sat May 16 1998 16:21 - ID#426220)


It states that "The sales by central banks -- amounting to less than 6 percent of total government gold holdings from 1989 through 1996 -- have been a contributor to a sharp slide in the price of gold."

But the article DOES NOT STATE the gold was most probably BOUGHT BY ANOTHER CENTRAL BANK!!!! My GOD, what the hell kind of supposedly analytical, objective and unbiased reporting is that alleged to be?!

Also, please note that this article mentions the word "GOLD" no less than 34 TIMES in only handful of paragraphs. If gold is a damn useless relic, and has no further usefulness - other than to adorn the ears of our fair ones, what in Sam Hill is everyone making a fuss about?

Me thinks they bray too loudly!

(Sat May 16 1998 16:26 - ID#254201)
Saturday Afternoon Doodling
If Silver bottoms in the next 10 days at 5.00 +/- .10 the next move up will carry silver to ( 9.50 - 10.50 ) by mid Sept-mid Nov.. As much as I dislike doing options this maybe worth taking a look at.

(Sat May 16 1998 16:28 - ID#339212)
@ Oris on RYO reserves

If the Indians burried their dead as the
Egyptians did there will be plenty of gold
in the "sacred" ground, only problem is
that the archeological society will take it
from RYO.

(Sat May 16 1998 16:30 - ID#57232)
Cyclist said that gold would bottom in July
aurophile: Cyclist's comments would not support a gold rally in June, unless there is an alternative interpretation to his work. I would feel more confortable about what is happening if I knew a bit more about his reasoning.

My intuitive feeling is that we are at a major crossroads in gold, for several reasons:

1 ) The downtrend of two years is clearly broken,

2 ) the CB's are starting to wind down the gold loans post EURO launch deadline.

3 ) Political instability is on the increase ( complements of the US administration precipitating the India nuclear arms testing )

4 ) the XXXgate situation is winding up, not down,

5 ) the markets are running on vapor. Where are those rising computer stock earnings the markets are anticipating?. I know our information revolution firms are the flagships of our economy, and they may do well later, but probably not until europe comes out of their recession. That will not help this summer, at least.

By the way, I would be very interested in conversing with your associate at Lucent about the lunar effect on the markets. I too think there are positive and negative cyclic phenomena, but I'm not sure that it is simple ionospheric charge action. There is the matter of the other planets as well, and most lie outside the earth's magnetoionosphere. The solar wind matter is yet another story.

(Sat May 16 1998 16:35 - ID#359316)
The New 1oz Silver Britannia
How about this, in a British newspaper? I have no connection to them,
this is just for information and discussion purposes:

Own Britain's Best Kept Coinage Secret!
The New 1oz Silver Britannia
1oz of pure silver for just 9.95 British Pounds ( is that a rip-off? )
Obverse features the new Ian Rank-Broadley portrait of the Queen
Actual size 40mm in diameter
Britain's Purest Silver Coin
Struck by the Royal Mint
The first ever year of issue
Strictly limited edition

Now you can join the privileged few who own Britain's best kept coinage
secret. Previously only available in gold, the new 1998 Britannia is
available in pure silver for the very first time.
Britains least known legal tender silver coin, it is also the purest -
struck by the Royal Mint to a unique reverse frosted, semi-proof finish.

Demand for this first ever silver issue is guaranteed to be immense.
With a worldwide edition limit of only 100,000, many collectors will
be left disappointed. Reply today and own Britains best kept coinage
secret - the 1oz Silver Britannia. It's yours now at the special issue
price of just 9.95 +p&p 1.50 ( UK pounds )
01923 475 575
The Westminster Collection Ltd., Freepost, PO Box 100, Watford, WD2 5WD
Reg. Office 38-40 Sycamore Rd, Amersham, HP6 5DZ.

(Sat May 16 1998 16:41 - ID#342315)
rhody re a million to one
I agree with you 100%. However I am alwys looking for a freaky occurence. Any ore body is freaky, but if you have enough experience, there are always clues to the freaky. I'll dig out some medium temp hydrothermal ore genesis to high temp magmatic segrrgation deposits and get back to you. In my experience, a million to one is a good gamble. thanx for your comments, Charlie

(Sat May 16 1998 16:58 - ID#238422)
Tony, I know you sold.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:03 - ID#238422)
John Disney(RYO's new resrves)
Brother John, may I have a little dream?
Just very little, just for a moment?
Man cann't live without dream...

(Sat May 16 1998 17:09 - ID#339212)
Oris, next Friday is the big day

money will flow into our pockets

(Sat May 16 1998 17:09 - ID#258142)
Re: my post on May 08
On May 08 1998 19:42, I have posted, that "next Friday [or 05/15 -D] we will be close to 305". As a matter of fact, yesterday, during trading hours in Europe we where at 303,5 buy ( and that is what I am following ) - obviously, closer to 305 then to 300, but New York close was lower. May be Monday will show.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:13 - ID#373284)
Wild Turkey Central - a fake! $40,000,000.00 for a fake..........the cauldron is on
and ready for central bankers, Camdessus and other soiled ingredients. Of course if my horse does not win the Preakness the SHAMAN WANT AD goes back on the gate at Cuervo Central...the little fella is nervous.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:14 - ID#238422)
It would nice, I need I new car.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:16 - ID#238422)
Myrmidon, sorry for typo - "a new car", of course.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:24 - ID#359316)
South-Sea/gold ratio
Early August 1720: 256.82
South-Sea stock went to 1000 after initially peaking at
890 in early June. Many persons sold out then, but after the first
falls, the directors of the South-Sea company ordered a
STOCK BUY-BACK! Does this sound familiar?

After the peak, "The bubble was then full-blown, and begain to quiver
and shake preparatory to its bursting" - Charles MacKay.

Watch out for quiver and shake!
Did Newton have gold in his portfolio?

(Sat May 16 1998 17:24 - ID#153102)
@Leland @CB Gold Leases
Leland, I hope my response on the Gold Clause case was clear. You must always read a case with an eye to the status of the parties and to the jurisdiction of the law in question. Now, in answer to a question from you, an attorney could say the Supreme Court did not uphold a Gold Clause in a Contract. It's true, isn't it ?

But, an interesting thought occurs. How would the Federal Reserve enforce a gold clause in a gold lease contract? How would any CB do so in Europe, except in Switzerland ? Was all of the gold leasing done by BIS under provisions of Swiss Law or under provisions of international Treaty Law ? I think SDRer posted a case in which the payment in gold SF was upheld. This makes me think BIS is the lender or authorized agent for the lender for all of the gold loans. This makes me wonder if a shareholder in BIS would have a right to see a gold lease agreement. Then, we would know the currency interest is to be paid in, fiat or gold.

I sure wish I had one of those lease agreements to read.

Cage Rattler
(Sat May 16 1998 17:33 - ID#33182)
Silver and the JSE
What is the best way to gain exposure to silver on the JSE?

(Sat May 16 1998 17:40 - ID#412286)
I thought they were going under but this incredibly talented woman has pulled it off again. If things ever become easy like gold rising this woman is going to take this company to the big leagues. Congratulations to management on a job well done. Congrats!!

(Sat May 16 1998 17:41 - ID#252127)

"Gold's Six Month base near Completion" a new discussion topic at SI started by a Veneroso Employee.
It might occasionally pay to check it out under quoted heading at

(Sat May 16 1998 17:43 - ID#256326)
The Lucent guy is now on his own. Send an email to and I'll see that you get his URL. No sense in awakening the slumbering
ignorami on that subject.;- )

(Sat May 16 1998 17:49 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re your 16:21
That says it all. the method of reporting and the "merchadising" is a broad cover by the press that obtains unless you look beyond. Thanx, Charlie

(Sat May 16 1998 17:51 - ID#252197)
RJ: No doom at all simply reality as observed. All

the more reason to treasure this life for all it's

worth in the present NOW! Enjoy

Gusto Oro
(Sat May 16 1998 17:53 - ID#377235)
Mozel 13:34
Mozel, I'm eating potato chips right now and I don't see any son-in-law in them... --AG

(Sat May 16 1998 17:54 - ID#258142)
Siemens company
From Oct 1, 1999 ( new financial year for this company ) all transactions of German electronics giant Siemens will be only in EUROs. I can give a reference, but it is in Dutch:

(Sat May 16 1998 17:55 - ID#153102)
The never-never story. EXTRA ! EXTRA ! READ ALL ABOUT IT
Leland, I hope my response on the Gold Clause case was clear. You must always read a case with an eye to the status of the parties and to the jurisdiction of the law in question. Now, in answer to a question from you, an attorney could say the Supreme Court did not uphold a Gold Clause in a Contract. It's true, isn't it ?
Global conspiracy to conceal consequences of usury and fiat paper moeny from the unsuspecting public indicted. Government, Central Banks, academic Brain Trusts, corporate media, a host of others - all implicated by Special Prosecutor.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:59 - ID#153102)
@can't post without messing up. Going to the tent.

(Sat May 16 1998 17:59 - ID#238295)
Jack: Thanks for posting the new SI thread! But this is a faster way to get there:

Gusto Oro
(Sat May 16 1998 18:04 - ID#377235)
Sunshine Mines
I wonder if now isn't the time to nibble at SSC at 15/16 or so. The company is to the point of making money now. Do those huge silver stockpiles that Armstrong warns us about really exist? Is Buffett a buffoon? Just thought I'd ask. --AG

(Sat May 16 1998 18:07 - ID#253153)
Indonesia in defiance of the IMF $40b rescue loan
After 4 days of riots, human death ( 500 people ) ,the Indonesian
government rolled back recent price increases in electricity and fuel. Indonesia net foreign currency liabilities is approximately $60 b plus an additional $60b owed by the private sector to foreign banks. When debts
reach such size and complexity so fast both borrowers and lenders tend to think of them as paper. Credit worthiness is subordinated to competition and growth. For example, how do the parties react to a long term loan if interest rates in the interin change drastically ? How then can you expect some country in the Southern Hemispher to keep a contract when it hurts ? . I would expect over the next year or so quite a number will default. Each default--whether a devaluation or a reneg--will cause others to move away from paper currency. As this movement is unfamiliar ground to many they will be inclined to seek some familiar hedge. There may be those who will buy ordinary common stocks, such as those with most of their assets underground, or buy real estate. Others may buy gold stocks or gold coins or silver stocks or silver. Selection , however, is essential.
In my opinion gold stocks and gold coins are the ultimate hedge against the escalating runaway deflation. For the investor a personal consideration enters his decision. Interest rates will continue to sink and treasuries rise as capital leaves production and distribution for security. Owners of capital generally require current income from it whereas an investment in gold bullion costs storage money. Therefore an individual
estimate should be made of how much income is required. Measure this against the current 6% return on the long term treasuries. Whatever balance is left should be used to purchase gold coins and gold stocks.
There are few serious investore left in this world because moderation declines as uncertainty grows.The investor can conclude that the various
familiar hedges will rise in price initially while those of producers, distributors and of course service industries will decline for several years.
As the world economy contracts as a result of the shortage of capital, as more political barriers are thrown up against restoring it, and further destructions comes through defaults, political turmoil will develop. By then all investments should be in gold.
Thank you

(Sat May 16 1998 18:14 - ID#339274)
Volatility timeline
FWIW Whenever there is a cluster like June 15 and June 25 we
see usually great volatility. I'm in agreement that June is
going to be an important month.
June 8 -10 looks to me a top for the general market.
In my opinion for the next two weeks,the gold price is seesawing and not doing to much.At the end of the month and the first two weeks of
June to make a sharp runup with great price volatility until
June 25.A downturn is in the cards after this date to be followed
with an important bottom July 30.All trades should be handled
with the appropriate stops.I believe the spread between gold and platinum is going to widen 150 at least. 470-480 is my target for platinum August September timeline
Gold has to take out 340 to get out of its bearmarket trend
A good indication is the behaviour of the June contract FND and the
LTD.We will see if strong or weak hands are holding the bag.
The FND dates for gold and silver are May 29 and the LTD's are June 26.
Short covering will happen between those dates.Good luck.

(Sat May 16 1998 18:15 - ID#316193)
Your words have much wisdom. Contract law, in the case of
gold clauses, apparently change with the country, the times,
and factors that we cannot envision.
What I know about the legal system ( very little ) , is that
whenever I need council, experience has proven that there are
legal experts to be searched within each field involved. Finding
the right attorney is one of life's challenges.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 16 1998 18:19 - ID#384350)
@mozel, Gold loans
Looking at the rate of usury as being a relatively low 2%, these loans must IMO be of the "102 pieces for 100" type.

I too, have thought about these gold loans in reference to the 10 for 11 principle. The rate of usury is equal to the rate of added global supply so its effects are not as readily seen. When the loan is recalled, that is when we will see the effects.

In a related matter, where is the credit risk in a 2% loan? Look at the difference in usury rates a credit-enslaved person pays on his credit card compared to someone who pays off in a timely manner. I would be interested in knowing who took out these gold loans. Is there complicity involved as there was in some cases of the US Savings & Loan debacle?

Will these debtors be forced to default? Will the principle of Baal force a short squeeze of epic proportions?

(Sat May 16 1998 18:35 - ID#256326)
We also have a big cycle coming in 7/30/98 +/- a day or two.

(Sat May 16 1998 18:38 - ID#256326)
6/2-3 and 7/31
are for gold, although the early June time frame may be "the" or another peak in the top formation in stocks as well.

(Sat May 16 1998 18:42 - ID#152163)
Gold Question
With gold moving up as it did near the close Friday, do you think there is a chance it may continue into next week?

(Sat May 16 1998 18:46 - ID#253153)
The gold to sliver ratio currently at 54
The widening ratio between gold and sliver is a preliminary confirmation
that runaway deflation is escalating . On Nov 17, 1932 the ratio between gold and silver was 100. Let me put it this way. We are dealing with an effort to protect capital. That's is the basic reason we buy gold. Gold is money. No central bank ownes silver. No government has a war against silver. No government is threatened by silver as an alternative to its currency. Silver is basically an industrial commodity. In deflation consumption od silver will decline. It's value may go down less than the general price level and that would protect the purchasing power of the money you spent to buy it. But silver's is not prime; GOLD is. I'd rather buy prime. In my opinion silver should comprise a small portion of your PM portfolio.

(Sat May 16 1998 18:55 - ID#342376)
Let's see......
Clinton takes money from Chinese for campaign. Technology might have been sold to the Chinese. India explodes nuclear devises. Pakistan next. Indonesia rioting. Japan sinking as well as Korea. Microsoft talks with government at a standstill, so Windows 98 not shipping yet. China facing possible devaluation. That old Monica thing. EURO launch in 7 months. Y2K beggining to get worldwide press as very serious. Millenial Fever will start soon and all the crazies are going to come out. USA trade deficit soaring. Labor Market very tight. Money being printed like no tommorrow. Government statistics on economy manipulated as well as Government manipulation of the markets....Yada,Yada,Yada........and I don't think Frank Sinatra would think of 98 as "It was a very good year"

(Sat May 16 1998 18:55 - ID#290118)
The SILVER lining in the gloom and doom.
Yes, Y2K, Euro-Asian meltdowns, etc.
Out with the Old and in with the New.
An Honest Gold Based Economy.
Great Idea Guys. Things are looking up!

(Sat May 16 1998 18:58 - ID#27341)
Gold up fri HK, devaluation jitters ???? , more to come.
Gold must be looking good in china.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:00 - ID#339274)
July 30 is the date I will position trade.June month I stay
with highly liquid stock ABX PDG NEM and the like in order
to get out on a moment notice.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:02 - ID#255284)
Moze Gold Loans & Usury, 5:6 -- a tale from the water well
I gleaned this from Standard Chartered Bank link last September

The link has changed since then, and I can find no current reference to this nor the deferred settlement loans that originally piqued my curiosity. Nor can I find any reference to Gold, accept to Gold credit cards, not quite the same thing...Perhaps this is because Scotiabank purchased Mocatta Bullion from Std Chartered a few weeks after I archived this article, and Std Chartered is out of the gold Business? Anyway, I hope this helps


Gold Loans and Deposits
As was stated above, the price of gold for forward delivery is calculated from the currency interest rate for the period concerned, less the interest rate for gold itself, over the relevant period. It was further stated that the value of this interest rate is dependant on the supply and demand for physical material and of gold loans to mining companies, etc.
That gold should have its own interest rate is consistent with the claim made on the metal's behalf, that it is a store of monetary value. Historically, the ratio of supply of physical material to demand has resulted in these interest rates being comparatively low and this has provided opportunities to
those involved industrially in the processing of gold, to raise funds at low cost. Conversely, holders of gold may find it advantageous to seek a yield on their stocks, gaining interest
payable in gold itself.
Interest payments on gold loans and deposits are calculated in terms of ounces of gold, but may be payable, on the forward maturity date, in gold or currency:
The following is the basis for calculation where: I=Interest Payment
G=Amount of gold on loan/deposit ( ounces )
S=Current spot price of gold in currency R=Interest Rate of gold loan ( as a percentage ) D=Days in period of loan
I ( in ounces gold ) =
( G x R x D ) /360
I ( in currency ) =
( G x S x R x D ) /360
Deposits are traded by financial institutions and Central Banks which are cash-rich and wish to realise a yield on their gold holdings through lending them to the market. Conversely, a gold loan may be taken up by a mining company or jewellery manufacturer, in order to generate
funds for project finance. In addition to providing benefits in the form of low cost funding, a gold loan can be used to remove the price risk attached to holding gold in a production process ( whether that process be refining, jewellery fabrication, or mining ) .


Gold loans can be made payable in either gold or currency. I would be interesting to discover which persons favour which repayment method. I suppose those who are willing to pay interest in gold have an bias in favour of decreasing gold prices, while those paying interest in currency would have a bias against that currency.

BTW on matters usurious. The common usury throughout village S Asia is 5 gets 6. All that changes is the duration of the loan. Usually it is one month. This "5 gets 6" is the reason for generational indenturing, which is still common throughout Asia. It is also one driving force for selling one's children either into sweatshops or prostitution. Most of the world lives like this, without running water, or sewerage, or electricity. Unbelievable poverty to those who have not witnessed it.

We don't know how lucky we are.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:12 - ID#372276)
US Mint sales
These might have already been posted by some distinguished kitcoite. Here are some figures for US Mint bullion sales 1992-1997.


1997: 508,025 oz.

1996: 213,500 oz.

1995: 246,950 oz.

1994: 265,275 oz.

1993: 463,525 oz.

1992: 344,195 oz.


1997: 2,531,000 oz.

1996: 3,466,000 oz.

1995: 4,590,000 oz.

1994: 5,540,500 oz.

1993: 5,890,000 oz.

1992: 5,544,000 oz.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:15 - ID#26793)
Received a postcard from Ted today on Swans Island. He has cleared trees for his 500 ft driveway and expects to pour a foundation next week.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:16 - ID#251135)
White kind of projections are you looking for ABX if you plan to play on it?

(Sat May 16 1998 19:22 - ID#153102)
That is a very informative little tidbit.
It confirms that to an unmeasured degree the gold loans are consuming gold production in usury payment. But since everyone is doing rollovers, the gold as interest is still uncollected and the deduction of this interest on production coming to market is still not realized.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:23 - ID#26793)
President of Sunshine Mining to address Silver Institute meeting on Tuesday

(Sat May 16 1998 19:27 - ID#26793)
Expansion of gold loans and hedging is unlikely

(Sat May 16 1998 19:40 - ID#26793)
Oversupply is at the core of the gold price problem.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:40 - ID#255284)
Why put off till tomorrow what you can put off till next month?
Eggsactly. The beast that's been hiding in the closet is growing forever bigger and demanding more sacrificial offerings. Once I understood this, it was easy to agree with ANOTHER's contention that one day trading in gold will cease. The beast escapes from the closet, it will not be a pretty sight.

Here is that "Deferred Settlement" stuff again from that old Standard Chartered link, ANOTHER way to keep the beast from ripping down the door at least until we can find a stronger padlock?

Deferred Settlement or Account/Account trading as it is sometimes called, is a system which has found favour, in particular, with Middle Eastern traders. It is, basically, trading with no fixed settlement date. The system works thus:
a ) The customer opens two accounts with a bullion dealer: one is a gold account; the other is a Dollar account.
b ) When the customer buys gold for spot delivery, his gold account will be credited with the relevant ounces of gold, value two working days after the day the trade is done. At the sametime, his Dollar account will be debited with the Dollars needed to pay for the gold. If he sells gold, his gold account is debited with the ounces and his Dollar account credited with the proceeds.
c ) Interest is payable on credit balances on the Dollar account andcharged on debit balances. Typically, the spread between the borrowing and lending rates for the Dollars is 1.50% p.a.; these rates reflect the net between current gold and Eurodollar yields.
d ) Settlement of the account occurs only when the customer liquidates his position, in which case profits or losses on the Dollar account must be settled in full; or when a customer wishes to take or make delivery, in which case full delivery and settlement aremade, as though a spot transaction had taken place.
e ) Deferred settlement trading is subject to credit agreements between bullion dealers and their customers. These may include anunsecured loss limit, or may require initial margin to be paid.Once any loss limit is exceeded, all further losses must be met in full.


(Sat May 16 1998 19:41 - ID#339274)
The potential upside is hard to speculate on.
I use the XAU as reference mostly the hourly config.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:52 - ID#342376)
A tidbit that rubs me the wrong way, but a tidbit nonetheless.....
If you like to invest when "there is blood in the streets", something that I have a problem with although I can see its contrarion merits, then take a look at International Pursuit, symbol IPJ.TO ( Toronto Stock Exchange ) It's a junior exploration company that is considered by many newletters as one of the best junior plays around. The price on this stock rose quite a bit even when the POG was diving in January. It got as high as 3.00 ( Canadian dollars ) but has suffered recently as one of its best plays is in Indonesia. It lost almost 9% on Friday alone and at the close of Friday it was 1.75 ( Canadian ) . It will probably continue to dive for a bit till the dust settles in Indonesia, but would be a great buy when it bottoms out.

(Sat May 16 1998 19:59 - ID#288157)
The Rumor Mill: "This is adding insult to injuries." Edward Moore (1712-1757)
African Business Magazine
Mining Journal
March 1998
Priscilla Ross

The power of rumour

A paradox surrounds the gold market: while the price of gold is at an 18-year low, the demand for gold is at an all time high. What is the cause of this discrepancy between the 'real' and the 'virtual' worlds of gold?

. A new wave of selling drove the price down from $325/oz to below $280/oz in December, chopping $4.3bn off the market value of the Swiss gold reserves and over $54bn off the market value of all official sector bullion holdings.

Paradoxically, demand for gold for jewellery rose by 15% to a record high of 3,219 tonnes, which was equivalent to 80% of an overall higher off-take f physical gold.

In Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, the role of gold as a store of value was upheld as the street value of their local currencies imploded.
In all these countries, heavy selling of gold took place to realise substantial profits against local currencies.

Elsewhere in the East the market was unaffected and during January 1998 there was very healthy physical gold consumption in Hong Kong ( probably destined for mainland China ) , the Middle East and India.

record demand for jewellery was accompanied by total fabrication demand for gold rising by 14% to 3,750 tonnes. In contrast to this, new mine supply rose by a slender 2% to 2,404 tonnes. So the outcome of balancing the fabrication demand to new mine supply book results in a shortfall between fabrication demand and new mine supply amounting to 43% or a record 1,348 tonnes. Into this shortfall the net official gold sales of slightly over 390 tonnes for 1997 was easily absorbed.

"against this background of record off-take of gold in 1997, we seem to be facing some sort of malign paradox in the gold market, a paradox in which we appear to have to deal with a real market and a virtual market. In the real market, physical demand continues to absorb everything thrown at it. In the virtual market, this healthy physical market is discounted entirely by a suicidal paper market, convinced that the sky is about to fall."

(Sat May 16 1998 20:03 - ID#26793)
Microsoft talks collapse; lawsuit likely

(Sat May 16 1998 20:15 - ID#255151)
NY Times Hot On The Trail

Clinton overrode Pentagon, State Dept. in satellite technology transfer to China. Sunday shocker in NY Times. They hint at much more to come.

(Sat May 16 1998 20:31 - ID#256326)
klinton anti-intelligence
I have always felt it would be the massive national security breaches under this administration which would finally bring them down. Not only the lefty/hippie what-me-worry attitude which prevailed early on at the White House, but the blackmail for sexual and drug reasons, and the simple selling of secrets.//I am desperately searching for the name of the tree on which Mussolini was hanged. Hopefully my local nursery has one.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:03 - ID#341312)
Physical demand vs price
SDR-Perhaps I'm being a bit simple-minded on this but here goes anyway. The people who trade futures, options, etc on gold very rarely take delivery. That's how the *big* money plays the gold market ( except of course for the secretive dealings at LBMA ) .The people who buy physical gold and keep it or consume it are mostly jewelers and goldbugs. They have relatively constant dollars to spend on gold each month or year. So if the COMEX spot price drops 15% or so they buy 15% more gold. If it doubles in price they would buy half as much, etc. That would explain rising physical demand coupled with falling spot prices, and vice versa.
Quickly rising prices might disrupt this as a lot of new money would come into the market from other investors looking for an opportunity. Most of them would still buy "paper-gold" but enough might go for physical to alter the spot price vs demand numbers. In a relatively stable environment with slowly rising or falling spot prices I'm guessing the "dollar demand" - oz's x spot price/oz- remains somewhat constant as the physical buyers are once again mostly the jewelers and goldbugs. I don't have shred of proof to back any of this up outside of the numbers in your post, it's just a thought that struck me. Gold purchased for industrial uses would not necessarily follow this logic as constant oz's are required per month regardless of the spot price. Maybe they also stock up when the price is low and buy less when it's high, I don't know.
Gagnrad- Thanks for the Win 3.1 memory/disk cache tip. Works great! Every time I look at that options screen now I think, duh, I've got 32Meg of RAM, why didn't I think of that?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 16 1998 21:08 - ID#384350)
Another Post?
There was a post yesterday on Kitco's Gold coin post-board at 17:11, by the name, ANOTHER. The poster talked like ANOTHER but had a different ID# than the one who posts here. He said the BIS had acted.

Is this the same ANOTHER that we all know? Is it possible for someone else to use ANOTHER's sobriquet on a different Kitco board?

(Sat May 16 1998 21:10 - ID#34857)
ANOTHER week of silence. Wonder what he's up to?

(Sat May 16 1998 21:12 - ID#372276)
aurophile@klinton anti-intelligence
I wish the BritishTony Blairs Britishwould not have shrugged off late incident of a Clinton administrato giving secret British government information to the Irish. This is a major breach of statesmanship and etiquette. But I dont even recall an MP bringing it up at Question Time.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:13 - ID#317193)
ANOTHER...time for show and tell
Come on, everyone has missed on predictions, it's time for you to give folks some info. Not that I'm a follower but what the heck, if you can't take the heat get out of the kitchen. Did last weeks meeting throw you a curve?


(Sat May 16 1998 21:19 - ID#255151)
Fiveliter @ 21:03

Fiveliter--Damned good post. Said in clear, plain English, in a way I can understand. Makes good sense as well. I'm saving that one.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:20 - ID#28594)
On another battlefield...

Middle East Magazine
Turkey's Islamic banks under presure
It is a conflict that has recently led to controversy
over a proposed new law on Islamic finance - the repercussions of
which could be dramatic for the country's Islamic banking sector.

Founded via a governmental decree in 1984, the non-interest bearing banking sector in Turkey now comprises of six main establishments -
or Special Finance Houses ( OFKs ) - with 155 branches and around
$1.25 billion of deposits between them. In addition to this, banking sector observers suggest a further $10 billion plus currently remains outside of the sector due to religious concerns.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:27 - ID#43460)
fiveliter: Two confessions which will never make it to Ann Landers:

1 ) I've been dollar cost averaging gold and silver purchases since 1983, with adjustments for income fluctuations - I think that is the Baby Boomer key. Baby Boomers watched the 1973-1981 period with interest but were mostly helpless to get involved as they were too young. They are now entering their peak earning years and those who dollar cost average MAY be increasing the amount they're putting in. IMHO ( Purely theory without basis for fact, BTW )

2 ) I've been running W3.1 for four years. I discovered the Netscape Network Preferences options box THREE DAYS AGO!

(Sat May 16 1998 21:27 - ID#34857)
Here's ANOTHER's 17:11 on the Kitco coin discussion group.
Date: Fri May 15 1998 17:11
ANOTHER ( "THOUGHTS!" ) ID#254358:
I have been gone for a time but there is much happening now and time does not wait. The BIS has moved for all to see. We will talk! Yes
Thank You

(Sat May 16 1998 21:40 - ID#287223)
GAGNRAD: What is the Netscape ...Options Box? ...and where is it? A computor genius I am Not.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:41 - ID#284255)
That's not ANOTHER.
Just some prankster.

There is no content to the post.

Not his style at all.

(Sat May 16 1998 21:48 - ID#43460)
JTF re Wives and emotional investments
I know what you mean. But here is a point that through many years we've come to agree upon. I invest in the external world: stocks, bonds and a little gold and she doesn't bug me. She invests in the quality of life world: house, children's education, community friendships, et cetera and I don't bug her. She invests in things with emotional value and I invest in those with intellectual value ( every time I've ever bought on emotion I lost money ) , each playing their strong points. For the time being we've agreed though that gold is undervalued, just as several other items on her list. IMHO

(Sat May 16 1998 21:52 - ID#34857)
sharefin - RE: ANOTHER
I share your skepticism. Can't imagine he'd call up the wrong site. But just assuming he did, how could he re-register as ANOTHER and start posting on the same day? I thought Bartman had a one-week waiting period? If so, then I agree with you ... 'tis not ANOTHER, just another.


(Sat May 16 1998 22:03 - ID#284255)
I'd guess Bart has seperate lists of subscribers passwords, for each discussion group.

Notice the way he put single parenthesis around 'Thoughts!'.
ANOTHER never has done that - ever.

ANOTHER always lead the way with content.
That post has none to speak of.

Someone else has posted there to try and stir the believers up.
Not his style - he always set out to inform.

Why post to the other discussion group?
When that is not where the discussion is going on.

Someone is having a laugh, all right.
He has put his bait in the water
And is watching to see who will rise to the bait.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:06 - ID#255151)
K2 Question Addressed

Yes that's K2, not Y2K. The Kitco Discussion Group on Gold Coins and Gold Stocks, aka K2, does not require you to register, or have a password. You can post under any "handle", even "The Messiah", if you want. There are some good posts there. Much of the dialogue is good natured ribbing.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:08 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom,

I do care about so called "Another", but I'm just
curious if you've seen post by "AverageJoe" who
is just a smart guy. He exactly identified who
is "Another".

I'm surprised nobody except me paid attention to
"AverageJoe" brilliant discovery. If you are not interested
in this matter any more ( I'm not interested ) , forget about it.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:09 - ID#238422)
TYoung, sorry, I mean "I do NOT care.."

(Sat May 16 1998 22:10 - ID#228128)
Question on Cyclists comments

Whats a FND and a LTD

(Sat May 16 1998 22:13 - ID#284255)
Y2K Contracts Reach a Record Pace As Companies Fail To Make Deadlines
In a quarterly report querying 128 companies on Y2K readiness from January through March 98, 78 percent say their rate of missed Year 2000 milestones increased.

What happens when they get into this crunch mode, they start looking to outside help. Thats one of the things thats contributing to this spike.

But if a company finds itself looking for Y2K help after discovering its in critical condition, integrators wont be shy about turning business away.
Incoming gold spike assured

(Sat May 16 1998 22:14 - ID#34857)
sharefin - Baiting the waters with an empty hook in the wrong pond. BRILLIANT!
Agree. From the looks of the posting frequency there, our baiter friend is in for a long wait, yes?


(Sat May 16 1998 22:15 - ID#286250)
fiveliter --re: your Physical demand vs price

Your points are well-taken, logical and sensible, and you describe how a market functions.

The problem that needs to be addressed is the lack of factual distinction between paper trades and physical deliveries. It would appear that not every house that trades paper has the privilege of taking/making delivery.

In the gold market, and in most markets, the clever algorithms have overtaken reality: at the start, they would be a permutation, the algorithm would be adjusted, the problem solved; then again, the permutation, the algorithm adjustment, the problem solved. This has lead to a opaque masking of normal cycles --all that normally occurs in the natural sequence of a cycle has been manipulated by the algorithms. This may be/has been ( ! ) profitable while it lasts; however, because it also makes information unreliable to the players who must have reliable information to adjust the algorithm, it will end badly.

This--of course--over simplifies a very complex happening, but hopefully it is clear enough to share the general idea? {:- ) )

(Sat May 16 1998 22:17 - ID#317193)
I believe I responded about the coin dealer in Denver! Yes?


(Sat May 16 1998 22:19 - ID#227290)
Are you still out there?

I want to talk about Kemess and another deposit in the area.

The Preacher

(Sat May 16 1998 22:19 - ID#284255)
Bennett urges global effort on Year 2000 bug
   WASHINGTON  It may not seem as urgent as, say, pressuring India to stop nuclear bomb tests that it began again this week.
   But Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, wants the administration in meetings with foreign leaders this weekend to address their poor efforts to fix the Year 2000 computer bug. He warns the pending computer glitch could be as apocalyptic as weapons of mass destruction.
   He said even the Central Intelligence Agency is warning that the problem could bring global "disruption of power grids, telecommunications and banking services."
   Bennett is chairman of the Senate Select Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, which wrote Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, asking him to raise the problem in meetings of "G7" finance ministers of industrialized countries this weekend.
   The Year 2000 problem, also called the "millennium bug," may occur when the calendar turns over because older computer programs and chips were designed to store only two digits of the four-digit year. So when the year 2000 comes, the "00" will be interpreted as 1900, not 2000.
   Resulting crashes and malfunctions, the committee wrote, could bring "major capital markets to a complete halt," not to mention possible "breakdowns in international air traffic control, foreign oil and gas pipelines or in the global telecommunications network."
   The committee said, "We are greatly troubled about the seeming lack of urgency of the major industrialized nations in preparing to deal with the year 2000 computer problem and hope that you will make this issue a top priority.
   "We strongly believe that the United States must exercise its leadership in the global community to keep such disruptions and dislocations to a minimum," the memorandum added.
   The committee warned that even though U.S. companies are spending billions to resolve Year 2000 problems, they could still be hurt if others worldwide do not take similar steps.
   "Several large U.S. banks are already warning of international financial disruptions of a magnitude similar to, or larger than, the current Asian financial crisis," Bennett's committee wrote.
   "There still is time, though barely so, to avert a major crisis."

(Sat May 16 1998 22:20 - ID#255190)
Must agree with Sharefin
He never put quotes around his THOUGHTS!.
When ever he or one of his posted it was with the typical ID# which does not match this new one.
He also never spit out a quicky like that.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:22 - ID#317193)
My manners are atrocious, good tidings to you brother oris. May vodka flow @ $318 soon. Pickles still on order.


(Sat May 16 1998 22:26 - ID#373403)
U.S. technology transfer to China
I am neither republican nor democrat but have lately taken quite a dim view of Clinton's antics. This technology to China issue blows all the other "mini" gates out of the water. I cannot fathom how this has not ripped through the mainstream news.

I am too young to remember much of the cold war but my eyes are open enough to see that our national security has been blown for a few hundred thousand dollars in campaign contributions from the Chinese government. This is shocking.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:27 - ID#43460)
netscape 3.x options Warning off topic
O.K. for W3.1 Netscape 3.x has a line of windows commands across the top of the page under 'Options' I see 'Network Preferences...' In that folder is a page called 'cache' For my 16 MEG RAM machine I increase the memory cache to 6800 and turn the disk drive cache to zero. This allows me to read all of a kitco page without haveing the durned disk drive rattling the whole time.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:28 - ID#284255)
MS expects suits over Y2K,2330,2105940,00.html
Wonder why Bill bought that Island now?

Somewhere to store his gold?

(Sat May 16 1998 22:36 - ID#256326)
FND=first notice day ( for deliveries against futures contracts ) . LTD is last trading day. What's IDT?,,,;0

(Sat May 16 1998 22:36 - ID#238422)
I 'm confident in you, you are my kind of a man...

By the way, what coin dealer in Denver?

(Sat May 16 1998 22:39 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
Look above on this page-Kosarrrrr?? Don't know how to spell that name at the USA Gold site.


(Sat May 16 1998 22:40 - ID#284255)
Report: Y2K bug to shock economy,4,22183,00.html

"We want to be sure that everybody gets convinced of this matter, without causing any panic," ING Barings chief strategist Philip Menco told a news conference.

"There are a number of countries where there's very little money available...or where the government is hardly interested in [solving] the problem,"

"Most banks will be millennium-proof, except for some--think of the Far East," Menco said, warning of a domino effect.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:44 - ID#287312)
themissinglink: TREASON
It is my outlook for the senior democrats to jump Clinton's ship next week in mass. Clinton should be burried with Benedict Arnold, ALIVE !
Arnold was much more honorable than Clinton. Arnold betrayed the Colonist out of loyalty to King George. Clinton is loyal to no one or nothing except his bent penis, money, and ultimately POWER.

(Sat May 16 1998 22:45 - ID#288260)
Indonesia ignoring the IMF?
So what happens now? The IMF already pumped money in. Now suharto ignores the "suggestions" from the IMF. How many other troubled countries will take the money and then ignore the IMF suggestions? How long can the IMF have credability with the supporting countries when they cannot enforce their dictates?
Or is that why the U.S. has such a huge military?

(Sat May 16 1998 22:53 - ID#287312)
Skeptic: Your right on the money
There's no way Congress will approve further IMF funding now! Korea is tanking badly too but hasn't YET broke stride with the IMF.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:01 - ID#57232)
Sunday Times shocker by Geff Gerth (as reported by Matt Drudge)
the missing link: I agree with you -- What is coming out in the Sunday New York Times tomorrow is a bombshell. Apparently classified documents have been leaked, indicating that WJC overruled his Secretary of State, the Defense Department and several intelligence agencies when he approved the launching of American-made satellites in Chinese rockets.

I challenge the spinmeisters to put a good spin on this one. I know the public has been lulled into quiescence, but a steady leak of news such as this should stir up the most jaded Americans.

Matt Drudge likens this to the "Pentagon Papers" ( Daniel Ellsberg?? ) . My memory is a little rusty on this topic, but I do not recall a paper trail ( or its equivalent ) directly to the presidential office. This time there apparently is one.

There is more to this than meets the eye. Clearly there are high-level governmental insiders who want Clinton out of office. My guess is that he has stepped on too many toes. I must admit I suspected something along these lines, but I did not imagine the magnitude of the implications. My guess is that WJC's role in foreign affairs is over as of today. How long WJC stays in office now depends on the skill of his spinmeisters, but even James Carville will have trouble with this one. Does he take on the entire government as his adversary? Is the government to be attacked as inept, lying or corrupt?

Probably any president could be brought down in a manner like this if he has lost the loyalty of those who serve him.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:01 - ID#284255)
FOCUS-Indonesian upheaval daunts commodity trade

(Sat May 16 1998 23:02 - ID#284255)
FOCUS-Pakistan says options open on N-test

ISLAMABAD, May 16 ( Reuters ) - Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif kept India and a nervous world guessing on Saturday about whether he would authorise the country's first nuclear test in retaliation for India's ``reckless'' five trials.

``In the face of these ominous developments, which pose an immediate threat to our security, we cannot be expected to remain complacent,''

(Sat May 16 1998 23:02 - ID#20748)
More technical Zig Zags
From Yvan Auger-

(Sat May 16 1998 23:03 - ID#413195)
Super mergers may signal rally's twilight

Sat, 16 May 1998 5:42:47 PDT

Story from Reuters / Richard Jacobsen

Copyright 1998 by Reuters ( via ClariNet )

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The mammoth corporate mergers that have given Wall Street stocks new reasons to rally could also be a sign

the bull market is in its twilight phase, the experts say.

At a time when incipient concerns over faltering corporate earnings and budding inflation appeared set to sap the market's momentum,

headline-grabbing deals have pulled buyers back.

But the mega deals could be just another sign of a tired market that is nearing a top, with companies using their inflated stock prices as

currency and searching to grow through mergers, analysts say.

For now, the billion dollar mergers and acquisitions are convincing investors that it is not the time to pull back from the roaring stock


The Dow Jones industrial average rose 40.85 points to 9,096 for the week, in part because of a wave of big mergers.

``For people who were on the fence wondering what to do, the merger talk gives them a push in the direction of buying,'' Bob Dickey,

technical analyst at Dain Rauscher, said.

Setting the tone, Baby Bell SBC Communications Inc. agreed to buy Ameritech Corp. for $61 billion in stock.

Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes Inc. said it will buy Western Atlas Inc. in a stock deal valued at $5.5 billion.

The deals follow the biggest industrial merger in history -- Daimler-Benz AG's acquisition of Chrysler Corp., unveiled this month.

In many cases the transactions have lifted whole groups of stocks as investors bet that the corporate marriages would lead to further


The Daimler-Chrysler deal boosted auto stocks and financial shares rallied in the wake of last month's $70 billion stock merger between

Citicorp and Travelers Group Inc.

But there have been signs that the mergers have been providing only a narrow, short-term burst to the stock market.

Marshall Acuff, portfolio strategist for Salomon Smith Barney, said the merger activity reminded him of the late 1960s, when the bull

market of the 1950s and 1960s was petering out, to finally die in the early 1970s.

``This all sort of smells like late long-term bull market behavior -- when companies basically become concerned with future growth and

they try to build in more growth through doing deals,'' he said.

Mergers are most bullish for the overall market when they are done with cash, on the theory that bought-out stockholders will re-invest

their new-found wealth in other stocks.

But the high market valuation has meant that most of the rich deals have been done with stocks.

While one company's stocks are removed from circulation, potentially lowering the supply of shares in the market, the overall impact on

the market is weakened because the acquiring company often puts more stocks into circulation.

``Obviously, that's not as big an influence as being taken over for cash,'' Bruce Bittles, market strategist at J.C. Bradford, said. ``The cash

gives you an opportunity to buy something else.''

Dickey said he thought the latest batch of mergers was enough of a catalyst to stem a market downturn.

``I think we're off to the races,'' he said.

But analysts said it was anybody's guess how long the bull market's legs would hold out. Its stamina has fooled many who have predicted

its demise in recent years.

Bittles, however, said he was recommending investors sell into the current rally.

``With these valuations and this euphoria, that's the right thing to do right now,'' he said.

Among other market gauges, the Nasdaq composite index fell 17.6 points for the week to 1,846.77. The Standard & Poor's index of

500 stocks rose 0.59 to 1,108.73 and the NYSE composite index of all listed common stocks was at 574.40, down 1.32 for the week.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:03 - ID#225273)
Hoax Poster
To all:
Mr. another has posted again: here is the text in it entirety.

Date: Sat May 16 1998 21:31


Also, LGB must be back early.

Date: Sat May 16 1998 21:42
Lil' Gritty Bum Bum ( Hey Diz ) ID#270350:
What it iz?

The Preacher

(Sat May 16 1998 23:04 - ID#401460)
Anti Trust Suits on the Way Monday

Watch the Globex, the Nasdaq should take a hit ...until the boomers buy THE DIP.

Saturday May 16, 8:26 pm Eastern Time

Microsoft talks collapse, antitrust lawsuit likely

``It appears that it's over,'' for a negotiated settlement, said a source close to the state attorneys general. ``It looks
very likely that the state attorneys general will file on Monday,'' he added.

``It seems pretty clear that everybody is going to sue on Monday,'' the source said.

Microsoft chairman Bill Gates said he was ``very disappointed'' by the breakdown in the talks.


(Sat May 16 1998 23:06 - ID#284255)
U.S. sex pill a hit on Saudi black market - paper
Worth their weight in gold?

(Sat May 16 1998 23:06 - ID#256326)
The exemption was signed the same day that the Chinese military intelligence folk delivered the bucks to the late Ron Brown and were "coffee'd" by klintone at the White House. The smoking espresso maker ( and checkbook ) replaces the smoking gun. I wonder who it really was who shot down Ron's plane in Croatia..........

(Sat May 16 1998 23:07 - ID#255151)
oris @ 22:08

Missed Average Joe's post on ANOTHER. Would appreciate a summary or link to the post. Thanks.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:10 - ID#401460)
Clinton, Now Treason?
By Matt Drudge
SAT MAY 16 1998 18:57:49 EDT


President Clinton took the unusual step of reversing his very own Secretary of State, the Defense Department and intelligence agencies when he approved the launching of American-made satellites aboard Chinese rockets, the NEW YORK TIMES will report in Sunday editions.


(Sat May 16 1998 23:17 - ID#373403)
Year M3 ( $bil ) Incr.M3 ( $bil )

1971.12 776.0
1972.12 886.0 $110.0
1973.12 985.0 $ 99.0
1974.12 1070.0 $ 85.0
1975.12 1172.0 $102.0
1976.12 1312.0 $140.0
1977.12 1472.5 $160.5
1978.12 1646.8 $174.3
1979.12 1806.6 $159.8
1980.12 1992.2 $185.6
1981.12 2240.9 $248.7
1982.12 2442.3 $201.4
1983.12 2684.9 $242.6
1984.12 2979.8 $294.9
1985.12 3198.4 $218.6
1986.12 3486.4 $288.0
1987.12 3672.7 $186.3
1988.12 3913.1 $240.4
1989.12 4066.3 $153.2
1990.12 4126.8 $ 60.5
1991.12 4182.1 $ 55.3
1992.12 4193.5 $ 11.4
1993.12 4258.9 $ 65.4
1994.12 4333.6 $ 74.7
1995.12 4595.6 $262.0
1996.12 4935.5 $339.9
1997.12 5383.7 $448.2

1998.01 5432.1 $471.0
1998.02 5472.2 $474.4
1998.03 5536.3 $504.3
1998.04 5583.3 $508.0

(Sat May 16 1998 23:22 - ID#341312)
Paper vs. physical markets
SDR-So what you're saying is the spot price is determined by financial algorithms and derivatives and has grown to the point where it competely overrides physical supply and demand concerns. It seems to have reached the point where the physical demand is *determined* by the spot price! So much for free markets, huh? If this is the case in other commodity markets ( probably not so much in food staples, I'm thinking weather and crop yields drive those ) then we are in for one helluva mess on 01/01/00 if even a few of those programs go postal. The market is backwards. It's like the world got so smart it got stupid. Perhaps this is all old stuff to some of the senior posters but a light bulb just popped ( okay, flickered ) in my head.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 16 1998 23:25 - ID#384350)
Maybe the precedent erect will pull a "Michael Jackson" and hole up in Liz Taylor's house in England.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:27 - ID#256326)
socialism in one country:the microsoft ploy
The tobacco jellyroll for the attorneys-general has whipped up a frenzy of other possible "virtual" nationalizations of industries in which there is a glimmer of internal dissent. The peoples's trial lawyers--an oxymoron if there ever was one--are on a roll. But I think they will lose, unless klintone can pack the courts very quickly before he is hanged.

None of us loves MSFT, but they did it. Apple, Xerox, HP, TI, IBM: they ( and others ) all had a shot at it and failed.

Henry Ford suffered a similar campaign. If you have a decent product and are a marketing genius,and are immensely succesful with the public, you will be attacked mercilessly by the failures and their allies, the trial lawyers and politicians.

If only Bill Gates had been smart enough to donate heavily to the Democrap National Committee.........

(Sat May 16 1998 23:28 - ID#57232)
Gold Bug Tsunami
OK: Tsunami surfers, a big one is coming. The key question is -- before all the markets head south, do we get a 'flight to safety' like 1987 when the gold equities doubled before all equities tanked? Probably.

I must admit I do not understand cyclic analysis to see ups and downs in the markets as some of our more august posters can. However, I can see the wave coming. No matter what, there will be a time for us gold bugs to move swiftly, and as some of us have pointed out, if we wait too long we will get caught up in the froth, and we will not be able to get off in time. We must not be greedy. The next few months are going to be busy ones for all of us. BC might actually survive to y2k, but I doubt it. The anti-Clinton newsbytes will not let up.

The real profits in gold stocks will be in investments purchased after the equity markets have dropped significantly. Gold will do fine regardless.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:33 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
The ongoing Asian DEFLATION will lead to widespread DEFAULT....responding to new fears of bankruptcy, interest rates will rise as global debt markets factor in the new risk premium. Rising rates should slow global economies-serving to reinforce deflation and default tendencies. WHAT TO WATCH: "Blue-chip" stock market averages posted maximum upside acceleration into the early April peak-completing the second of three anticipated multi-week rally stages-led by blue-chip stocks, lagged by secondary stocks-will complete the advancing trend since last Octobeer's lowpoint. A MAY/JUNE MASSACRE? Until the trend of interest rates turn up, the stock market's intermediate-term rally phase off the October 1997 lowpoint likely stands incomplete.... needing a third and final rally phase following the conclusion of upcoming correction. The shape of May/June correction should take the form of decline/rally/decline with the DJIA bottoming within the 8200 to 8400 region and with the S&P 500 bottoming within the 1000-1030 region. We suspect the forcefulness of the upcoming correctional phase will represent a final "WARNING CRACK" which will hint that the next multi-week phasw ( with the DJIA moving to modest new highs against numerous background divergences ) would terminate the intermediate-term advance off last Octobeer's low.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 16 1998 23:37 - ID#384350)
Fiveliter, Shortages
Vronsky posted links to 2 great articles at gold beagle. One called, "Thank you Mr Buffett", talks about when there are shortages in the Precious Metals markets, it is the lease rates that rise and not so much the metal.

Futures markets are "supposedly" designed to reduce market fluctuations, but they seem mostly used for manipulation.

Thus like rent-controlled appartments, we see shortages instead of price run ups. I see many commodities in similar situations. Y2K will be the catalyst.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:40 - ID#256326)
I fear
that many mistake bankruptcy for deflation. The first is a personal ( corporate/national ) disaster; the latter an economic condition. They are unrelated.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:40 - ID#57232)
Ron Brown
aurophile: Whoever bumped off Ron Brown bumped off his law partner on the same day, as I recall. I think that air traffic controller in Bosnia and the Nurse were terminated by that same little organization -- probably a carryover from the Mena days. I think we are going to hear more from the AFIP forensics experts who saw Ron Brown's body, and the incriminating missing xray with the lead snowstorm inside the skull.

What worries me is that a surgical removal of the head ( WJC ) may not clease our government of the body. The body could grow another head. It all depends on how influential these insiders really are.

Either way, I would not give 5 cents for WJC's future. The same shady group that launched his career could end it very quickly. There must be a reason they have not already done so. Perhaps they are heading for cover first.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:44 - ID#284255)
In 1987 we were at the beginnings of a decade long growth cycle.
Inflation was rampant.

It is not so today.

Will gold rise prior to the crash?
Or spring to life after the crash?

There will be many who will have to pay off their failed debts with their real assets.

As per Asia.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:46 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter:
Blue chip indexes were up slightly for the week, while all secondary averages were down. And while it seemed a rather "neutral" week, it certainly wasn't from a technical standpoint. Our Breadth Disparity Indexes fell sharply as declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks on BOTH exchanges EVERY day this week... even when the indexes rallied. Our Leadership Indexes also fell considerably. And InvesTech's Bellwether Divergence Index and Bond Yield Momentum both slipped lower.
Bottomline, THIS is the type of internal deterioration that must unfold ( and continue ) to provide hard evidence of a market top. Among our 2 major models... our Negative Leadership Composite continues to slip toward 0; but downside leadership MUST increase before it'll turn negative and confirm bear market "DISTRIBUTION". On the monetary side, our MEP remains frozen at +13, and is unlikely to turn negative unless the Federal Reserve raises rates at their FOMC meeting on Tuesday. We see odds at less than 50%, but ONLY because of the renewed meltdown in Asia. Our Emerging Market Index fell yet another 5% this week... and isn't far from testing the January lows. It now looks like the IMF is simply pouring money down a black hole. But in any case, THAT is the primary pressure on the Fed to defer their decision to raise rates.
For our strategy, we are now urging a more defensive stance for those subscribers who had chosen to try to ride this bubble until primary models turned. Admittedly, our MEP and NLC have NOT turned negative yet. But this was a bearish week from a technical standpoint, and we believe the secondary stock averages have seen their highs. Things could start to unfold rapidly from here.
LONG-TERM & MUTUAL FUND INVESTORS... we are maintaining our position in the gold stocks/funds. With the Fed's options limited by Asia and money supply still soaring, this sector still has one of the best risk/reward trade-offs.

(Sat May 16 1998 23:49 - ID#255151)

Here's a thought--This posting time, approximately 23:50 KST ( Kitco Standard Time ) , is the worst time to post. If you have a question or point to get across, this time slot gets lost between the time and date changeover. If you overlook last minute writings on a given day, you miss some good posts here : ) !

(Sat May 16 1998 23:50 - ID#153102)
The point of the Euro is to make more money.
Trashing the US economy doesn't make anybody any money.
I think we should think in those terms.