Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:05 - ID#57232)
1987 vs now
sharefin: You are right that the markets were strong at the time. I think it was the 'rollover' of US treasuries by the Japanese that hit the US dollar, triggered an interest rate spike and tanked the markets. The US dollar had taken a long slide from its peak in 1984-5.

In contrast, right now we have a strong dollar, though the dollar often weakens when the markets weaken -- all depends on the degree of foreign investment in US equities and treasuries. My guess is that foreign investment is still substantial, despite the selling of the Japanese.

One thing is really holding up the markets right now, and that is the baby boomers with their automatic investing retirement accounts. That is nearly an irrestible force. It will take alot to shake up these investors, but the professional investors will be far more skittish. We must not forget Oldman's comments that the new market bear will not be 'pretty' because there will be so many that will refuse to see the bear for what it is.

I think a 'lock step' now will be a bad sign. And -- another run on the dollar will be a sure sign that the US markets will head south a bit later. The PPT will be wasting their virtual cash this time, and they probably know it. The new circuit breakers are in place, aren't they? 250 points on the DOW? 500 points?

I think South America will drop the fastest, then the US markets, when the pattern finally coalesces. Batten down the hatches -- forget about AG and rising rates -- the markets will eventually do this for him, and he will probably be blameless this time. He was at the helm in 1987, too.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:16 - ID#210235)
@Some carefully considered words about IMF funding,
from the think-tank.


Cato chairman tells joint committee most loan recipients "have become

loan addicts"

"IMF bailouts are a form of insurance for the foreign and domestic

individuals, firms, and banks that had made high-risk investments in the

country subject to the crises du jour," Cato Institute chairman William

Niskanen told the Congressional Joint Economic Committee recently.

"Private bankers handled such problems for generations, long before the

International Monetary Fund and the World Bank muscled their way into

this role with our taxes," he noted, and, when "committing the assets of

their own firms, are likely to handle such problems better than do

public officials who play this game with other people's money."

Niskanen, a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers, was one

of three respected economists and former government officials discussing

the IMF and international economic policy with members of the JEC. The

others were former secretary of state and the treasury George Schultz

and former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.

Current efforts to bail out Asian economies "will probably increase the

number of similar future crises in these and other countries," Niskanen

told the committee. "The historical record is clear: Most of the

less-developed nations funded by the IMF have later returned for more

funds. Mexico, for example, has had a financial crisis in each of the

past four presidential election years." Eighty-four nations have been in

debt to the IMF for 10 years or more and 43 nations for 20 years or

more. Most such countries "have become loan addicts."

In suggesting that Congress reject the latest request for $18 billion

for the IMF, Niskanen complained that the White House "has gone around

the world making a series of promises and then asserts that

congressional support of these promises is necessary to maintain U.S.

leadership. The Clinton administration did not invent this gambit, but

it has been especially consistent in using this argument to support its

position on trade negotiations, global warming, NATO expansion, Iraq,

and now the IMF."

(Sun May 17 1998 00:18 - ID#284255)
The new circuit breakers are in place
10% - 20% and 30%

At 30% the market closes for the day - with a sigh of relief.

What makes me wonder is why they enlargened the breakers so much.
Surely the old breakers would have led a more orderly decline.

I think they want it to happen all in one day.
Not to drag out for weeks and weeks.

Like a boil that must be lanced.

Not that I think they want it to happen, just that they know it is inevitable.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:27 - ID#252127)
PPT; Treasury and the stock market

The Treasury PPT division doesn't have to print money to buy stocks, its just a secret book entry coming from elsewhere. Money sitting in a stock causes no increase in circulating cash so long as it sits in the market.
If profit comes of the PPT hoax, they can take it and credit it to increased tax receipts to balance the budget. Just my thoughts and you can't go to jail for what your thinking.
Just don't trust them.
(Sun May 17 1998 00:32 - ID#434108)
Chechnya murders/Leland's entry
I pray we are not so naive as to attribute these slaughters to "mere" robbery motive. I believe Ludwig von Mises, In "Planned Chaos" identifies quiet succinctly that the forces of political & economic

darkness, will not hesitate, to systematically annihilate any true leaders, anywhere. Ayn Rand also speaks of such travails, and symptoms of impending crisis.

may the peace and power that sustains us all, and gives us life, and goodness, guidance, compassion and wisdom, in these incredible and turbulent times;

be our beacon.....'our way-show-er'....

in our quiet steps

in our private breaths

in our public pursuits and our duties



(Sun May 17 1998 00:35 - ID#255151)

I'm guessing PPT members are neck deep in this Communist Chinese Military sellout thing.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:44 - ID#57232)
Circuit Breakers -- why so large a range?
sharein: I agree with you that the most obvious point is the implicit admission that this much a drop is possible. There are some other corrolaries. First -- my guess is that the shorts want to keep the market liquid and open. More profit that way when the time comes. Secondly, there is a legitimate concern that a market that hits a 5% breaker on a friday might cause greater panic on a monday and lock the market up for days -- until there is effectively nothing left. I remember what happened with Bre-x -- it was very much like that. The insiders had already discounted the price -- while the market was closed.

No matter what happens, there will be alot of losers, and the derivatives will not work as expected. I will certainly not knowingly buy or sell during a locked market, even if the profit potential might be very great.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:45 - ID#206358)
Jtf and all,


Recently,my system broke down,the day of the INDONESIA riots happening!By Chances or coincident!I can't tell!Anyway,some update news from here....brieftly and honestly.........

Strong rumours came out this week about another big riot going to happen on Wednesday ( 20/may/ ) from the refugees!The day when INDONESIA took independency from DUTCH! ( something liked this,anyone confirmed?! ) .
both the forex,commodities and stocks markets closed from thursday afternoon.No sign yet will open on monday!The rupiahs gained ground before closing at around 11300!And the market predicting will hit 12000 ~14000 in short term!
Thounsand of Indonesians fled to SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA!By fly,waterfront,illegally through Kalimantan!Big mess around the region!Foreigners investors, diplomats,rich or poor indonesians just want to leave the land!
My personally view is the the trouble will dragged on until the new govt or reformation step up!But this also very difficult since many negative reasons behind the scenes,which may EXPLODED sooner!
Whether or not shuharto step down or not is not important!The most reality and practical is the JOB and DUTY to make the economy recover and the people mouths full!This must take a bit times,how long?I think quite long.....THE CONFIDENCE IS TOTALLY LOST!
Sorry for poor grammar!
life still go on....we have HOPE,THE BEST MOTIVATION!


(Sun May 17 1998 00:51 - ID#290118)
Circuit breakers set too low, when they tripped, set off a maybe not quite a panic but certainly a lot of sell orders. While the market was closed the steam just built up. You are right that smaller increments could let the market down easier. When the breakers trip at 10% it may only trigger an avalanche that breaks 20% shortly after the market opens.
No win I guess. I think the 10-20-30 is a reasonable compromise.

Mike K__A
(Sun May 17 1998 00:51 - ID#153283)
How do I best buy gold futures?
Anyone care to point me to a website, a good book or provide instructions on how to trade gold futures? I've been lurking here awhile and have become convinced that gold today is a good defensive position and the upside may be a significant bonus.
My experience is limited to traditional stock trades and mutual funds.
You can post me at if you'd like to save bandwidth for those who don't need a primer. Thanks in advance.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:56 - ID#22650)
Good luck JIN, to you and your country.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:56 - ID#57232)
Glad you are still with us -- we were worried!
Jin: Please take care. We also heard about the May 20th date for demonstrations -- from sharefin's son. I'm pretty sure about this date, but I do know there is one large demonstration coming up. Makes sense if it is Dutch freedom day. That would mean that the police will be ready, IMHO. A good day to be in hiding. I think the riots go in cycles too -- good days and bad days.

Our president is in serious trouble -- please look at the Drudge report for today. This news will continue until he is no longer president -- but the process will take months -- and -- our markets will be heading down eventually.

I read that Suharto has reversed the price hikes in key commodities. I don't know how long he can do this before running out of money.

Please be careful -- best of wishes from all of us to you.

(Sun May 17 1998 00:58 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
quite a day.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:09 - ID#255151)

Arden, D.A., or Allen would be some posters who could answer your question. If you don't get an answer, then try asking again at another time. Also, you will often get an answer if you address a specific Kitcoite with your question. There are many others who can answer it also, whom I have not mentioned, due to self-imposed bandwidth limitations and short-term memory loss!: )

(Sun May 17 1998 01:14 - ID#284255)
JTF - Dow-Gold chart
Here's a chart to emphasize the inflation/deflation aspect.

The doctors ( PPT ) know they have a bad problem.
They know it's beyond their control.
The just don't know when it will explode.

All they can do is be there when it does explode.
And give it all the necessary help needed.
To keep the patient alive.

To live another day.

Please take care.
Asia is turning into a timb bomb.
It may well be a lot worse in a few months time.

This is wave two we have just started.
And predictions are out that there will be a wave 3.

From China to Indonesia
People are becoming unsettled
Prone to acts they would not normally do.

Because they are no longer content
With the way they perceive society.

They are expressing their grievances.
In an angry form by lashing out at society.

They destroy today what they used yesterday
A change of heart and mind.

This too is a disease - a malaise
A disease of society.

And will have to be purged
Before recovery.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:19 - ID#255151)

Glenn would be a good poster to ask about futures.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:22 - ID#411163)
Indonesia and gold
Watching the riots in Indonesia makes me think about who might know what I have hidden away. Desperate people ( mobs ) do not have much of a
feeling for anyone that has anything I think. From now on I am keeping gold and silver and such assorted talk much more to myself. Also think I will hoard some food so I can stay home during the worst of this.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:27 - ID#284255)
I think that 10-20-30% breakers is an *admission* of the pent up steam that they ( the PPT ) realize is going to be needed to release this bubble.

England has done the same.

I see this as the limits that 'they' set.
What they expect to happen.

It is an admission of expectations
Yet to be experienced.

Are 'WE' not all waiting?
That is why we are gold bugs.

The future expectations?

Ditto for any other chaotic problems:
Middle East
Comets etc
Or any other millenial madness.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:39 - ID#255151)

India sure threw a monkey wrench into the works with them A-bomb tests! Bloody good for them!

(Sun May 17 1998 01:44 - ID#339274)
JTF tops and bottoms
In answer to your question about turning points.When cyclical
turning points making highs in a downtrending market and the
next one is a low instead,it will indicate a change of trend
is being made.Silver is an example of its change in trend of its
19 week cycle.Gold has not made a clear breakout ,it will have to
take out 340 convincingly.A multi year bottom for goldstocks is still to come in 1999 February .P/E's have to come down in the 5 figure.
In other words cash and gold coins will be king in this deflationary
market.BTW June 10 Saturn enters Taurus,an aquaintance in '69 made
a pile of money in shorting the market ,on that premise.
Interesting times indeed.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:47 - ID#433422)
10-20-30- question
Is it 10% shut down then 20% ADDITIONAL to second shut down, or 20% cumulative for the day?

(Sun May 17 1998 01:51 - ID#284255)
Forces grow to oust Suharto

President Suharto's grip on power appeared to weaken last night as leaders inside and outside his ruling Golkar party questioned his leadership.
It was a real curveball.
I guess that there are more incoming.

(Sun May 17 1998 01:58 - ID#284255)
Sunday reading - Indonesia

Sorry about the long url.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:03 - ID#284255)
Grant have a look here
Percentage-Based 'Circuit Breakers' On Index Futures To Take Effect With Start Of Trading Wednesday, April 15
Merc Chairman Gordon Testifies On 'Circuit Breakers' For Stock Indexes;
CME Supports Markets' Halt After 10-, 20-Percent Moves, Elimination Of 'Sidecar' Rule

(Sun May 17 1998 02:03 - ID#255151)
News Update 11:01 PM May, 16, 1998.

Look at these news stories from @ 00:01 05/17/1998 KST. Makes Gloomy Gus sound cheerful: )

(Sun May 17 1998 02:06 - ID#434158)
Some of my friends and acquaintances have noticed the black ribbon I wear. If they asked, I explained as follows. The gold globe stands for the people of the world, who look to this nation as a symbol of freedom and self-governance under the rule of laws, not of men. The word BETRAYED stands for the actions of the president of the United States and his henchmen. I have worn it since the visit of the Communist Chinese premier early last winter. It has nothing to do with Monica. It has everything to do with truth, deceit, and a "leader" who will sell out his party, his country, his world and his soul for personal ambition and/or gain. ( Not to mention his wife and daughter for momentary pleasure: but that is relevant only in that a man who will do it is not to be trusted. ) The Wall Street Journal has pointedly and repeatedly called attention to the appearance that the president defers to the Chinese in action, while appearing to caution them verbally. Last November the Journal speculated that Clinton could perhaps not afford for certain witnesses, then hiding in China, to be produced by Chinese authorities. The arms dealer mentioned below is one of them. I acknowledge the anti-Clinton bias of the Journal ( except for Al Hunt ) . The quotes below, however, are from that bastion of right-wing conspiracy, ( g ) the New York Times. Read the full articles for yourself from their web site at ( requires free registration. )

New York Times, Feb 11, 1998

The Democratic report acknowledged that evidence was obtained from intelligence agencies that the Chinese government had approved a plan to try to influence American elections through lobbying and possibly illegal actions. But it asserted that the intelligence data, called nonpublic information, did not support the more sensational claims.

"As set forth in the nonpublic information provided to the committee, the China Plan was not designed to funnel campaign contributions into American elections, nor was it aimed at influencing the 1996 Presidential race," said the draft, which was expected to be completed and made public later this month.

New York Times, May 15, 1998

The fund-raiser, Johnny Chung, told investigators that a large part of the nearly $100,000 he gave to Democratic causes in the summer of 1996 -- including $80,000 to the Democratic National Committee -- came from China's People's Liberation Army through a Chinese lieutenant colonel and aerospace executive whose father was General Liu Huaqing, the officials and lawyers said.

General Liu was then not only China's top military commander but also a member of the top leadership of the Communist Party.

New York Times May 16, 1998

On Oct. 9, 1995, Secretary of State Warren Christopher ended a lengthy internal debate within the Clinton administration by initialing a classified order, preserving the State Department's sharp limits on China's ability to launch American-made satellites aboard Chinese rockets.

Both American industry and state-owned Chinese companies had been lobbying for years to get the satellites off what is known in Washington as the "munitions list," the inventory of America's most sensitive military and intelligence-gathering technology. But Christopher sided with the Defense Department, the intelligence agencies and some of his own advisers, who noted that embedded in commercial satellites were technological secrets that could jeopardize "significant military and intelligence interests." ..

( Nonetheless, Clinton waives regulations, contradicting Defense, intelligence servicxes and State Depts. )  ( Note that the technology necessary to lauch satellites with respect to guidance and to Mirv multiple warhead technology is identical to that necessary to launch and target nuclear warheads. Now do you understand why India no longer relies on our nuclear umbrella for protection? We just enabled China to hit them. FYI Other reports state that China is building bases and airstrips and massing troops near India's border. )

the White House and the Commerce Department ( Ron Brown ) began communicating again about the issue on Feb. 8, 1996, two days after Clinton broke a backlog of applications for launches by China, by approving four of them that day.

Clinton signed those waivers the same day that Wang Jun, the man who was often referred to during the campaign finance investigations as a "Chinese arms dealer," visited Washington. His company, China International Trade and Investment Corp., has a multibillion-dollar stake in one of Hong Kong's largest satellite companies.

That same day, Wang met with Brown, at his expansive office in the Commerce Department. And that evening, Wang attended a coffee at the White House,

( The waivers were a short-term solution: the long-term solution was to give control of this technology to Ron Brown"s Commerce Dept. instead of State, which normally controls military technology issues. )

Finally, the State Department issued the regulations shifting most satellite licensing to the Commerce Department.

They were published on Nov. 5, 1996, the day Clinton was re-elected.

The ribbons are free for the asking: Email me at

(Sun May 17 1998 02:19 - ID#433172)
Hard red winter wheat ( organic with low moisture content ) in 5 gallon plastic pails with secure lids and a hand grinder. They weigh about 22 lbs and are easily handled. Keep forever.
Lots of people around here know about my wheat but it's in the bottom of a boat and I can disapear anytime, there are thousands of places to hole up around here. SE Alaska. In the meantime I eat fresh ground wheat in bread and porridge and enjoy the good life next to my utility pole. In a crisis situation I'd probably just stay and feed as many people as possible anyway, it's really difficult in the boondocks by yourself, and adversity brings out the best in everybody.
If BC saw any advantage by dealing with the Chinese military I hope his head rolls. I cared not a wit what his sex life is, in my not so humble opinon thats each persons affair ( within the law ) . I'm worried over Bhutan and Nepal, they might try what they did in Tibet.

Anyone following Cornocopia? I've read several reports which I can no longer find? According to one report they borrowed about 13 M from the bank and paid back 12 1/2 M and couldn't come up the mere 500,000. And now they tell up the Ivanhoe property is also collateral and as good as gone if they can't arrange a merger. The CEO says the shares aren't " totally worthless". Thats nice. Looks like a scandal, the other directors have mostly resigned, is there some woodwork for them? This could even have a ripple effect on other stocks eventually. Like every thing is great,we got a working mine, assets in the ground of bonanza quality, uh sorry boys were folding. Anybody who would belive this action would probably vote for BC again.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:22 - ID#233199)
That long URL was just within the limit for making problems.

Thanks for your concern.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:23 - ID#255151)
Kipling Rules

Gunga Din--This Missile-gate thing may do Clinton, and a few hi-tech stocks in. What affect will that have on the price of Gold?

(Sun May 17 1998 02:34 - ID#238422)
Auric (& AverageJoe)
It was probably 2 or 3 weeks ago, can not recall
exactly when. I wish AverageJoe would post it again.

Anyway, I always felt that Another is a Writter.
English that Another used is just about perfect
emulation of "foreign" English, but it always seemed
to be too sophisticated and not natural "broken" English
to me. Also, the plot was kind of interesting...too much.

AverageJoe managed to show clear connection between
Another and Mike Kosares ( not sure if I spell his name
correctly ) from USAGOLD. This gentleman also published
some kind of book regarding Another...and seems to be
making some good money on this "another" mysterios stuff,
if relative information is correct.

So, who is the Writter? You think about it long and hard...

P.S. Average Joe, please repeat your post for Auric.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
I've noticed that it doesn't always blow out the margins - erratic bug

That one did - just.
SCMP's urls are always long
So I will cut them in half in future.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:47 - ID#255151)

Is "ANOTHER" a creation of USA Gold or Michael Kosares? Who knows. Could be. I sure as F* don't know : ) .

(Sun May 17 1998 02:48 - ID#238422)
You mean Mike Kosares ( spelling? ) is a coin dealer???
I didn't know that. So, here we go...Classic example
of an excellent salesman - you got to have a "KGB" story
about your stuff to sell this stuff, kind of Makarov
pistol story they used - look, Americans, we managed to
bring you proven weapon of powerful and deadly KGB...not
just a pistol!

I guess that's it.

(Sun May 17 1998 02:54 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sun May 17 1998 02:55 - ID#238422)
I figured ( at least for myself ) that Another is "Creation".
AverageJoe gently figured who was a creator ( M.K. )
TYoung added M.K. is a coin dealer...
Now, you use your logic and draw your conclusions..

(Sun May 17 1998 03:01 - ID#255151)

If ANOTHER is just some coin dealer, well, my hat goes off to him for spinning such a good yarn. Such a story teller deserves our buying an ounce or two of Gold from!

(Sun May 17 1998 03:07 - ID#284255)
Oris - TYoung
Could be the perfect scam.

Sell more books.
Sell more gold.
Dupe more goldbugs.

Could well be why ANOTHER has disappeared.
His comment to me could well be true.

"Mr. Sharefin, Thank you for saving these. There is much more to this."

Much more money in his pocket.
1000 books @ $25 = 25k

Is a good sideline to increased sales of gold coins.
Especially if you have the knowledge.

I don't know.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:11 - ID#238422)
If he is a coin dealer indeed, it stinks...
He did a great sales job, but he held his
customers for fools, and it's not good...

O'key, time to go and get some sleep. Good night.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:14 - ID#238422)
That's what I'm talking about. This is America.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:15 - ID#255151)

That is a good point. I guess if he sells enough books, he won't have to sell a lot of Gold, eh!

(Sun May 17 1998 03:19 - ID#153102)
The consensus is that the stock market in the United States is a bubble of overvaluation. The presumption is the managers are planning a correction without a crash.

Gold is undervalued. The presumption is the managers are planning a rise without damaging confidence in fiat paper or the popular perception that it is not wealth and money.

I think the managers of both ends of this see-saw are co-operating. But, I don't know the scenario. But, I think the common interest of managers on both sides of the Atlantic is to make more money.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:31 - ID#255151)

I think the big boys would like an orderly decline in the DJIA, and a controlled rise in Gold. Problem is, it's too late for either. They should have been thinking about both a long time ago.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:34 - ID#153102)
The Euro managers are walking a tighrope with the people of Europe. They are saying the ECB will hold gold, but they want to retain the popular perception that gold is not wealth and money.

They want the Euro to have reserve status, but when the greenback loses reserve status, it will devalue their greenback holdings.

But, so what if the greenback is not really wealth anyway.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:43 - ID#255151)

The EURO is another Bre-X. No Gold there.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:48 - ID#153102)
Perhaps. If he wants to, AG can prevent mutual funds from selling stock. The Credit Control Act gave him power over all credit allocation, etc. PPT just has to make phone calls.

Rotschild really raised the ante for the Euro managers. Gold Euro coins. Open gold auctions. Lots of talk about gold among people who are being paid in paper. He is saying raise the price or else risk somebody saying give us gold money.

They could revalue gold's official price at BIS from $208 to $422 overnight. This would perhaps destroy LBMA. I think the continentals are telling the English the international gold market will be moved if it does not co-operate with the Euro managers.

One thing that they must work out is how to avoid an oil shock for America.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:49 - ID#318183)
inflation? from the NY TIMES
The Economy -- Inflation Awakening?

Consumer prices rose in April at the fastest pace in six months, the Labor Department said, in a
report that suggested inflation might accelerate from the 30-year lows reached earlier this year. The
Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month after remaining unchanged in two of the three
previous months.

Retail sales rose 0.5 percent in April, and inventories of goods at American businesses increased
0.5 percent in March after rising 0.7 percent in February. The higher inventories indicate that
companies expect demand for goods to remain strong.

(Sun May 17 1998 03:56 - ID#255151)

If Alan Greenspan and the boys want to precipitate an outright panic, they will impose such restrictions. That would be like yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater. I say go for it, boys!

(Sun May 17 1998 03:58 - ID#153102)
Gold Reserves. To reduce the cost of using Euro as a reserve currency. It would figure in those capital ratios that BIS issues. The plain talk on this is that it will provide a better credit rating than just reserves of $US. Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management. No substitute for gold as pledge. But, because the Euro has gold reserves, countries holding the Euro as reserve would have their settlement risk indemnified to a degree by their Euro holdings. Very important in oil transactions, I believe. BIS assesses the risk on a CB by CB basis, makes the capital ratios, etc.

(Sun May 17 1998 04:03 - ID#153102)
Well, they could pace around their offices in panic, but they still couldn't sell.

(Sun May 17 1998 04:14 - ID#255151)

Yes, the EURO could trade for oil and other commodities in lieu of the US$, if it has some Gold backing. The thing is, where is their F*ing Gold? They've been playing F*ing games with Gold sales, Gold leasing, and Gold forward selling. Examples of these nefarious practices are--Belgium, Switzerland, and Gold mining companies. A little transparency in the Gold dealings of Governments and companies would make things a Hell of a lot clearer.

(Sun May 17 1998 04:14 - ID#31876)
This Dallas Newspaper Article (Re. Oil Companies) Names Companies Already Affected in Asia
The newsbeat is becoming loud and clear ---

(Sun May 17 1998 04:40 - ID#257148)
your cash ain't nothing but trash

forgive me if I am betraying my echolalia here but, as you said:

"Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management."
"Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management."
"Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management." "Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management."
"Reserve currency is now a matter of settlement risk management."

Watch out for the crooks in the market like Leeson, BCCI, Sumitomo,

glad it'll never happen again.

Har Har

how strong is the weakest link?

(Sun May 17 1998 04:51 - ID#255151)

Wouldn't it be the biggest hoot if it turned out that all the European Central Banks had NO net physical Gold? Maybe it has all been sold, loaned, or forwarded. HAHAHA!

(Sun May 17 1998 04:58 - ID#257148)
turning paper into gold --- eat your heart out Newton --- alchemy was nothing like this=========
scarier still would be if no CB gold because the conspiracy-you-have-when-you-dont-have-a-conspiracy-rothschild dynasty have finally figured out a way to grab cb gold,, gold loans,

all the gold in the world


(Sun May 17 1998 05:06 - ID#255151)
I'm a Rothschild And I'm OK, I Post All Night and Sleep All Day.

aurator--One could do worse than Monty Python in times such as these.

(Sun May 17 1998 05:08 - ID#329186)
Auric (mozel) 17 may 04:14
Yes,Yes I agree~ but these groups do not want transparency but mystery,enigma,secrecy with a few scattered rumours to increase the volatility and manipulate the POG well every dog so they say has its day

Go Gold


(Sun May 17 1998 05:09 - ID#257148)
I like to dress in women's clothe's, buy gold and trust my nose....
best laff i've had for ages. thanks

(Sun May 17 1998 05:23 - ID#257148)
Oh Ludd!
aurator is too salty, using the grocer's apostrophe "clothe's"

I hope the grammar police don't see that post.


(Sun May 17 1998 05:26 - ID#329186)
Gunga Din ( Treason) id 434158
Well maybe Clinton will not complete his term ~ it just depends on how he leaves try this site for a different view

Go Gold


(Sun May 17 1998 05:26 - ID#255151)

Indeed they don't want transparency. Many posters at Kitco are striving to bring about transparency. That is a conflict of interest, yes?

(Sun May 17 1998 05:37 - ID#257148)
apostrophe me not
transparency like the emperor's new clothe's?

(Sun May 17 1998 05:59 - ID#255151)
Feeding Frenzy

aurator--These guys are smelling blood

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 06:41 - ID#24135)
Just a minute ..
please Cyclist..

You said
"A multi year bottom for
goldstocks is still to come in 1999 February .P/E's
have to come down in the 5 figure. "

Could you explain what "p/e's come down in the 5 figure"
means ?? I cant follow that sentence .. is something
missing or am I dumber than usual this morning.

(Sun May 17 1998 06:47 - ID#254244)
Alms for the Ignorant?
Could somebody please explain why there is always a difference between "buy" and "sell"? Usually this spread implies that no transaction has taken place.

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 06:58 - ID#24135)
Gold Bonds .. revisited..
Suppose Harmony or Barrick raised capital like this .

Issue a corporate $ denominated gold bond with a 2.5%
coupon .. 1000 $ face value in 10 years OR 2 oz of
gold .. at buyers discretion.. Seems better than selling
forward as no gold thrown on market and CB are kept out
of the game.
Buyer gets an interest bearing instrument with a gold
call pitched in. Seller gets cheap money NOW and no
impact on gold market price.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:11 - ID#287312)
Politics that move Gold
The day the Monica Lewensky story broke Gold jumped about $ 9.00. Next week Treason is the buzz word. Politically things are beginning to become very volitile. I look for the scumbag to resign soon. Democrats should be jumping ship in mass next week.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:13 - ID#255151)
Aikido Update

Just spoke with an Aikido instructor. Asked about Aikido Master versus shotgun in a dark alley. Guess what. Shotgun kills Aikido Master every time. Aikido Master not stupid.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:15 - ID#26793)
Clinton says Euro is not a threat to the dollar.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
Indonesia Central Bank says it will reopen Monday.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
G8 wants IMF to provide debt relief for heavily indebted countries.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:24 - ID#248180)
@Donald "Clinton says Euro not a Threat to the US$" "BULLSHIT"
We can now take it as fact that the Euro is a Treat to the US$. Nothing that B.Klinton says can be taken as the truth. Not one percent. He is buying time, does not have a solution to growing problems and is lying through his rotten mouth.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:25 - ID#248180)
Correction - Threat not treat

(Sun May 17 1998 07:26 - ID#26793)
Rumor and self-preservation rule Jakarta

(Sun May 17 1998 07:31 - ID#26793)
Australian military prepares to assist Australians in Indonesia

(Sun May 17 1998 07:53 - ID#26793)
Indonesia military will not be able to control widespread rioting.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:54 - ID#341189)
G8 confident in recovery if IMF reforms are carried out. Worried about protectionist policies.

(Sun May 17 1998 07:58 - ID#26793)
Mexican Supreme Court set to rule on legality of compound interest.

(Sun May 17 1998 08:06 - ID#284255)
I don't believe you.
Chi is greater than this.
The art of non-confrontation.

To have great CHI, one controls the energies around one.
A true master is aware of the confontation before it begins.
Thus he can react accordingly.

Even in the tightest moments, pre-science is forward thinking.

CHI= the movement of energy conscientiously.
Energy = yin/yang
Mu= the absence of yin/yang
Under the state of Mu, great masters, can enact the art of Aikido to create the balance that was.

(Sun May 17 1998 08:08 - ID#255151)

The IMF is a F*ing disaster. Those idiots think they can make countries like Indonesia and S.Korea raise fuel and food prices, and make every thing hunky dory. Well, that is flawed thinking. The IMF must answer to the Chinese in Indonesia whose shops are being torched and families are threatened. That is just a start. Camdessus is a scumbag.

Cage Rattler
(Sun May 17 1998 08:09 - ID#33182)
@John Disney: Silver and the JSE
What, in your view, is the best way to get silver exposure on the JSE?

(Sun May 17 1998 08:10 - ID#26793)
When the bubble breaks stock prices and real estate values will plummet.

(Sun May 17 1998 08:33 - ID#28994)
If the Dow was added to the basket of goodies that the rate of inflation is calculated from.
What would the rate of inflation be.

(Sun May 17 1998 08:35 - ID#255151)

Did anyone mention what a scumbag Camdessus and the IMF are? Hope you're watching the burning in Indonesia. Many unclean hands in this.

(Sun May 17 1998 08:44 - ID#254112)
@Auric (IMF)
Auric, you said:
"The IMF is a F*ing disaster. Those idiots think they can make countries like Indonesia and S.Korea raise fuel and food prices, and make every thing hunky dory. Well, that is flawed thinking."

You are right. It remainds me of what the IMF policy under Jeffry Sach's leadership of economic consulting did to Russia and the former SU counties. They introduced "free market concepts" by raising the price for bread. These concepts of deliberate rottenness are being exercised over and over. I found only one explanation: the financial oligarchs want to teach the masses that they are better off with socialist economies rather than with a economy which is based on a bottom up capitalist structure.

Instead of starting with redistributing famland to private farmers and encouraging private run crafts shops all over the country to maintain traktors and machinery, they increased the bread price as a first action. It punished the common folks for not being faithful to the communist regime, which 1917 was financed by Wallstreet bankers to keep Europe down.

The IMF policy is always characterized by deliberate economic terror against the poor, common people.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun May 17 1998 08:44 - ID#243250)
Donald 8:10
Morning Donald from the soggy Canadian Rockies, continued thanks for all the excellent economic news re-posts from the U.S. media...... . regards

(Sun May 17 1998 08:53 - ID#255151)

"Economic terror against the most defenseless". Yes, the IMF does do that. Who hired Camdessus? Who does he report to, eh!

(Sun May 17 1998 09:13 - ID#287312)
Skinny: Far in excess of 25% to answer your question.
Government figure for inflation for April was .2%. CNBC monthly check of of commonly purchased items was 4.6% increase for April. What's wrong with this picture? One of the numbers is supplied by our Gubment. For a preview of the U.S. in late 1999 or 2000 watch Indonesia.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:19 - ID#238295)
Headline from today's Palm Beach Post -- "Area HMOs plan increases of 7 percent to 9%" But there is no inflation, right?

The Palm Beach Post also had a long article on Indonesia. But no mention was made of the fact that many of that nation;s troubles stem from the harsh terms imposed by the IMF and the international dominance of the greenback. Media spin in action

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 09:19 - ID#24135)
No way .. jose'
cage rattler
I know no way to get silver exposure
on the Jse since there are no silver
producers in RSA. Maybe it's there
but why bother what with all that
gold, PGM, and diamonds laying around.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:21 - ID#45173)
To all Kitcos: Bank survey to the bottom of the Y2K question
No one can say exactly what's going to happen after Y2k rolls around, so I'd like to enlist the Kitco crew to do some research. We can learn a lot by questioning the folks who provide the services we may lose due to Y2K problems. If they can guarantee service, then we're in good shape. If they can't, we're not. It's just that simple. If we do this as a group, we'll get statistically useful info. I'd like to start with banks. We can survey other industries later if we feel we need to.

Below is a short letter I'd like you to send to your bank after first identifying the name of the bank President. The easiest way to identify the president is to look at the last piece of junk mail you got with your bank statement, often signed by the president. You won't hear back from the Pres, but he will delegate the task to someone else and make sure you get a response, usually. I have done this myself a week ago and I'm still waiting for an answer. Post the replies you get and I will compile them. Post a non-reply response if you have not received a resoponse within a month of sending your letter. Please reference "Y2K Bank Survey" in the subject of your post.

The answers we get back, or do not get back, from the banks will tell us a lot.

I plan to post this note once per day for a week so that most Kitcos see it, so I apologize in advance for the repeat posts.

Thanks for your participation.



I have been a customer of BANK-NAME for N years. I have heard about possible interruptions in services at certain banks due to so-called "Y2K bug" computer system problems that may occur after Jan. 1, 2000. In fact, I understand that depositors at some banks may not have access to funds for a period of time after Jan. 1, 2000.

In order to feel safe to continue using BANK-NAME in the future, I need your guarantee that BANK-NAME will have completed updates to computer systems to prepare for Y2K so that I will not experience any interruption in services and will have full access to funds after Jan. 1, 2000. Otherwise, I will need to close my account and move funds to a bank that can offer such a guarantee.



(Sun May 17 1998 09:32 - ID#255151)
EJ 09:21

True story here. About 4 months ago, I brought up the subject of Y2K with the broker who handles my retirement accounts. He said that yes, it a real and serious problem, but Smith-Barney-etc. was working on it, and there was nothing to worry about. Well Hell, I sure am reassured by that! Those guys don't have a F*ing clue on Y2K!!

(Sun May 17 1998 09:35 - ID#411112)
EJ,most company lawyers are telling them not to respond in writing,I wonder why,other lawyers?

(Sun May 17 1998 09:40 - ID#333126)
while we're on Y2K
There's this interesting story by Ellen Ullman which *isn't* on the Y2K problem, but if you read it, you'll begin to understand the reason why programmers have this mentality that has brought us right to the 'edge of the abyss' concerning the Millenium bug

then ... if you go to read this next excerpt from her book, you'll realize the kinds of pressures programmers face and ... hmm ... maybe ... maybe we should all be more frightened... should read this.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:44 - ID#45173)
@Auric A lot of the big brokerage houses are customers of mine
and believe it or not they are in pretty good shape. Prudential, Fidelity, all the big financial services firms have been working on Y2K problems for along time, some for as many as ten years. These guys use computer technology as a competitive advantage and pour resourses into it. They are the most likely to come out ok. Banks, on the other hand, don't have the profit margins of a Fidelity to pay for technology investments, nor do they get a lot of leverage from technology. Culturally they are insular and backward, using old computers, low-paid technology talent, and disallowing outsiders to come in to help them. I suspect that only the largest will be in any way prepared.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:47 - ID#411112)
Shameless plug,on Wednesday I will spend a hour on my show discussing the Y2K problem
the show will air 7am pst you can hear it on the net,all you need is streamworks,on the link below go to "radio" it will take you to a free download

(Sun May 17 1998 09:54 - ID#255151)

Yes, maybe my broker was correct on Y2K compliance by Smith-Barney-etc. That still leaves Europe, Asia, and Latin America wide open and vulnerable to the Y2K problem. If Smith-Barney-etc. thinks they can profit from or even survive a complete implosion of the international markets, then I think they are whistling past the graveyard.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:54 - ID#45173)
@robnoel If in fact Banks can't respond in writing
we'll find this out for sure from our survey. It will be very telling if they can't.

The letter I provided is designed to get around the legal guarantee problem. There is no liability suggested. You aren't suggesting in the letter that you'll sue them if they screw up your account, you'll simply take your business eslewhere now if they can't guarantee that there will not be a problem in the future. This is a much more difficult request for them to dodge. Say you wrote a letter to the bank asking whether your funds were safe from theft. You'd get a resonse back that said the bank was very safe, that no depositor had ever lost money from the bank due to theft, and that the funds were guaranteed by the FDIC. That's the reason for the Y2K letter. You just want to make sure your money is safe. How can they not answer? That's the whole reason you use a bank, to keep your money safe and earn some interest.

(Sun May 17 1998 09:54 - ID#344308)

don't you just hate it when this happens....

just another opportunity.......

as is fresh water.......time for accumulation of the source....or control.....


(Sun May 17 1998 10:09 - ID#45173)
Smith-Barney is very worried about their counterparts in Europe, where they are occupied with Euro conversions, and in Asia, where they have their heads in the sand. But there's not a lot they can do except keep their own house in order. I'm sure that the transaction volume between US and European/Asian brokerage and banking firms will fall off the face of the earth due to transaction processing problems. Further, the networks that carry the transations will have problems getting the data to the other side in the first place. I'm looking for info on Y2K impact on computer networks but am finding none.

(Sun May 17 1998 10:22 - ID#255151)
EJ 10:09

Wasn't going to touch that Smith-Barney retirement stuff until 2010 in any case : ) Won't miss it that much. And I sure as F* won't sue over it: ) !

(Sun May 17 1998 10:28 - ID#411112)
Ej,nobel effort,but welcome to the real world the more I check this thing out the more convinced its
1 ) Y2K it's to late to solve one bank does not make a chain one goes all go, only option Fed will shut them down if they can't start testing by 1 Jan 99
2 ) There are more than 200 big time law firms pouring over FCC filings,public traded companys have to state there progress on Y2K,lawyers smell blood you do have a problem
3 ) The rest of the world is 6-18 months behind,guns,food

(Sun May 17 1998 10:45 - ID#255151)

Addendum--now, that's not to say I haven't put a sh!tload of that retirement loot in Gold related investments. I have! Still, that is just so much Gold paper that may or may not be there come Y2K+10.

(Sun May 17 1998 10:45 - ID#45173)
I'm not attempting to change the outcome, just get a handle on reality so that I am not basing important decisions on speculation. There is strong circumstancial evidence, as you allude to, that there's a problem. But I can see places myself with my own eyes where it has been fixed. If I wanted to change the outcome I'd start a non-profit org to put pressure on certain industries. It's not too late, but it would sure be a lot of work.

(Sun May 17 1998 10:46 - ID#410215)
..... ANOTHER day, another story ......

Seems the luster has worn off this ANOTHER fellow.

Now perhaps the some of you can apologize to LGB

He took a lot of flak for his calling ANOTHER a scam

His new Kitco name shall be

Keen Eyes with Biting Ears

GO, KEBE! Go Gold!


(Sun May 17 1998 10:47 - ID#254112)
@EJ (To all Kitcos: Bank survey to the bottom of the Y2K question )
I like your idea.
I already sent out my first letter to my major bank. I only altered the last sentence into:
"Otherwise, I will need to care for appropriate arrangements."
Because I didn't want to threaten them with changing the bank.
I wouldn't change anyhow. But maybe open up another account.

As far as computer networks are concerned I find your question very important. Banks are dependent on international transactions which again depend on different public switched telephone networks. Public switched networks cannot be tested. The reason for this is that they cannot interrupt the public service in order to perform a "real production" test. Therefore, only lab tests are possible, which become more expensive when you try to come close to the real production environments.

What I can observe: it is basically impossible! Because each transmission link depends on so many different computers, control systems and embedded chips that it is virtually impossible to build such test environments which mirror the real world and then:
listen what comes now!!!!
...and then move simultaneously the system date in all these systems, computers and embedded chips to December 1999 and to January 2000.
Those engineer, which I can observe in the process of becoming aware of these difficulties
- either resign
- or go into endless talking and talking ( as if they try to talk the problem away )
- or they escape into leagal damage control concepts to save their...."sitting structures". ( I don't know a good academic expression for this one! My mother tongue isn't English. )

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun May 17 1998 10:54 - ID#411112)
EJ..its not a question of who has it fixed,it is who hasn't,for it to be fixed

all systems have to work,just one breakdown shuts down everything

(Sun May 17 1998 10:55 - ID#153102)
@On The Subject of Banks
"The problem with a bank account is NOT as much the SSN as it is the signature card. Signing your name on the signature card MAKES YOU LIABLE. Just READ it...

I know that they are making even more of an effort to hide this though.

The last time I helped a friend of mine open a bank account, when I
read the signature card, all it said was that you had read the 'Welcome
to Regions Bank' pamphlet that the person who opened the
account for you gave you. Well, upon reading this pamphlet, which appears
to simply be filled with innocuous information about the different kinds
of accounts offered by the Bank, you find, buried in the 3rd or 4th to last paragraph ( of 30 or 40 ) , a very telling paragraph stating that:

a ) You agree to be bound by all the rules and regulations of The Bank, and that not only does it NOT matter if you have read them, THEY DO NOT HAVE TO GIVE THEM TO YOU."

Qustion 1: Who or what is the entity named "The Bank" ? ( Could it be The World Bank ? )
Question 2: Can you indenture yourself ?
Question 3: Did you agree to pay damages to The Bank for words or actions contrary to public policy ? ( answer: you don't know. )

(Sun May 17 1998 10:55 - ID#410215)
..... YK2 & You .....

Regarding YK2 ( my first comment on this ) :

Seems to me that private industry will be plenty ready, yes, yes.

It costs too much to be not; affects the bottom line big time.

Government is the weak link. Weaky Leaky.

Our government can do nothing on time and within budget

I do not expect them to handle YK2 in time. Definitely not.

And we all are exposed to the other dominos around the world.

Perhaps it would be wise to concentrate our efforts

In making sure the government portion of the problem

Affects us the least. Indeedy so?


(Sun May 17 1998 10:56 - ID#411112)
RJ..Allow me to say I called him a scam when he started on the metric ton gold deal

I to took a lot of heat

(Sun May 17 1998 10:56 - ID#45173)
ALBERICH & Auric, signing off for now
ALBERICH, thx for your support. I look forward to your bank's response. I gotta run now but want to discuss the network issue with you later.

Auric, of course. Whether Y2K causes a medium problem or a big one, Gold is the way!


(Sun May 17 1998 11:02 - ID#255151)
ALBERICH_A, sharefin, EJ

Sounds like those Y2K computer engineers were spooked. Y2K is a problem. Yes?

(Sun May 17 1998 11:04 - ID#433422)
EJ, Robnoel, Auric, et all

Y2K will offer up the most severe financial collapse in living memory. You all are somewhat ahead merely by virtue of you're being on this site, but it is important to realize that the financial sector's problems will only be the tip of the iceberg. Food, fuel ( energy ) , healthcare, politics, education, communication, etc are all vulnerable in a big way.
Don't be lulled into believing that having a few gold pieces in your pocket will constitute personal preparedness. There's alot more to it than that.
Also,IMHO, if you need guns, your'e f*cked. Any of you that have ever been in a firefight know that. If you have to start shooting tresspassers, the flood has just started. ( Don't get me wrong, I've got plenty of guns and ammo ) .
This free man has accelerated his preparation efforts. NOW is the time to start stockpiling everythin from gold and cash to toilet paper. Plan on NOTHING being available in 2000.
A question... Assuming Klinton hangs on till 2000, if he declares a national emergency, will he continue in office past the natural date of inauguration? SCARY!

(Sun May 17 1998 11:12 - ID#411112)
Grant,the pictures fom Jakata should give you a clue,those riots were against
rising prices,think what it would be like if it was a food shortage.......the place not to be is citys,move to the country,like all good computer programmers

(Sun May 17 1998 11:13 - ID#410215)
..... Robby .....

You did, indeedy

Your new Kitco name shall be

Seer Who Speaks Truth Through Air


John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 11:15 - ID#24135)
That'l be the day..
pilgrim ..
for rj ..
I dont care if "another" turns out to
be the Boston Strangler ..
to me LGB will ALWAYS be

(Sun May 17 1998 11:18 - ID#433422)
Robnoel, I'm about 80 miles from the nearest city (Ft. Worth)

and that's not far enough. If I could afford it, I'd move alot farther out. At 80 miles, I'm under no illusion of security. They will come.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:18 - ID#317193)
RJ, LGB will be just fine without any apologies although a nickname is a good idea. Not sure I like KEBE but LGB probably would like that over Leaky. I, myself, like Leaky. I laugh whenever I am reminded of the inability of two adults, both with good minds and souls, who seem to be unable to converse in cyberspace without offending each other.

Without face to face conversation so much is lost. No tone to the speech, no facial expressions, etc., etc. Oh, well, lets have LGB tell us if he wants a nickname and, if so, what he selects. I just happen to like Leaky.


(Sun May 17 1998 11:21 - ID#153102)
@Dialtone In Y2K
If there is disruption in an area and you need any dialtone, go to the mayor. Dialtone will be rationed. This has been in place for more than twenty years. You might want to tell your distant friends and family about it so they won't worry unnecessarily if your phone is out.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:23 - ID#411112)
RJ...Sorry buddy but it was my experiance with various folks in Newport Beach,as a green pea I admit

I too ran after one of those metric ton deals this was mid 80's,at that time it was German gold held by Marcos taken during the war,usual stuff... buy 2% behind @2nd LME,money to be put up in trust in Switzerland...yaddie yaddie ya

(Sun May 17 1998 11:31 - ID#210235)
@Remember back when Iraq was our
main foreign policy problem? Was that, 4 - 5 days ago? Here's a Sunday laugh at you this morning: ( Dave Barry )

(Sun May 17 1998 11:31 - ID#433422)
Questio repeat, If Bill scumbag hangs on till 2000, and declares National Emergency, can he stay in

office past the natural inauguration date?

(Sun May 17 1998 11:35 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

You know I am a fan of yours. Any man who makes no money and has no crients is way ahead of the rest of us to start with. But your fight with LGB is truly pointless. The two of you agree on almost everything; where is the fight?

You remember I clashed with Lurkey some months back, before I too found I was in agreement with much of what he said. The tone of his posts can be snippy and arrogant at times, but his common sense approach is vastly saner than a lot of folks around here. Seems to me the fight is not over ideology but is purely personal. You may find it amusing that I would write this as I have acted quite the prick in the past myself, but LGB offers good information and humor to this forum. Same for you, fella'. So let it go. You guys are throwing rocks at each other, but you are on the same side of the fence. Continuing your snipes at LGB, even now, in the purlieus, has run its course. Let this dog lie and rest a bit, aye?

RJ - Bringer of Peace to All and Walking and Talking Quietly Never to Fight or Offer Harsh Words, Not Me, Oh No, Oh MY.


(Sun May 17 1998 11:39 - ID#317193)
No.....nice try anyway.


(Sun May 17 1998 11:45 - ID#412286)
Clinton and Y2k
If this emergency is as bad as they say it may allow Clinton to extend his term another 4 years. Roosevelt did this in 1940 just on the threat of WWII. IMHO it is becoming more probable, with all the crisis developing, and Y2k that Clinton could be around till 2004. Dont forget the financial debacle will be blamed on uncontrolable sources which require govt intervention and stability..Keep Bill. The media loves him he could stay.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:47 - ID#410215)
..... NABby Boy .....

More to the point -

When we start adding the worth of a man, of what shall the sum be made?

By and large, I have found LGB to be a man of intelligence, wit, and a powerful desire for a more peaceful soul. He gets cranked up in the heat of battle, but those among us that do not, will not survive these games long. He has an opinion on everything. So do we all, he just takes the time to write it. I believe our friend when he writes of perspective gained when our lot is viewed in stark relief to the rest of the world.

LGB is, and has been, an asset to this forum. He offered a minority view to which the majority disapproved. Yet who is closer to the truth?

KEBE Come Home


(Sun May 17 1998 11:50 - ID#33490)
John Disney
My expectation is that the P/E ratios of Gold mining companies
will come down with the general market.Early seventies
companies fell back to 5-7 times earnings in their pricing
and some were paying dividends in the order of 10% per annum.
This cycle is to bottom again in early 1999 and I think those
readjustments will be made accordingly.A multi generational cycle
is due between the years 2001 and 2002 the effects will be the
start of a multi year inflationary cycle.
Sorry for my confusing statement of last night.Have a good day.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:51 - ID#153102)
The Constitution provides the schedule by which offices shall be filled by regular elections. A person in office does not have an option. Their term in office expires and their authority in office expires with their term. If there are no elections, the offices are empty. Without elected, lawful authority in office, delegation of authority is not possible and the burareacracy grinds to a halt.

Just as the socialist legislation of FDR and the New Deal Congress prevented the country from coming out of the Depression, offical directives during any Y2K emergency are certain to prolong it. Emergency and Necessity have always been the plea and justification of Tyrants and Usurpers and always will be.

Clinton made a delegation of authority to FEMA by Executive Order that truly is a cause for concern.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:51 - ID#22956)
fwiw dept
this guy had some plat recommendations last 'report'.....

fwiw...........uh huh.



thong-inspector-laddie.....did I let any cats outta the bag?? Anything to add that you haven't already turned yourself blue in the face over?? ( regarding PGM comments of yesterday ) ..........OK.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:51 - ID#26793)
@Mozel, SDRer, repost for you both. Notice reference to Islamic banking. Comments?

(Sun May 17 1998 11:52 - ID#317193)
Sunday and parenthood
Off to buy clothes with the daughter. Please say a prayer, there may be nothing left with which to buy the PM's. Save me, please save me. Oh my such agony. : )


(Sun May 17 1998 11:55 - ID#26793)
G8 is very worried; get your gold while you still can. Plans to limit cash withdrawals.

(Sun May 17 1998 11:56 - ID#411149)
gold volatility timeline
Cyclist- I appreciate your comments on gold and the coming DEEP
if you got time give me a holler

Jeil- the same question please.

Tally Ho

WHERE IS MIKE SHELLER?......................................

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 11:56 - ID#24135)
Im cool ...
For RJ
I think you are being very adult about things ..
I like to see that side of you.. I wish I could join you
in this.
Tell you what .. send me some crients and we'll
talk more later..

(Sun May 17 1998 11:56 - ID#22956)
I think KEBE is in Isreal.....
...or somethin'
away.....back to the yard to lay more the Lakers did yesterday....... ( ugh ) .....

cherokee......welcome back....where you been????? I don't mean to display my ignorance ( well not EVERDAY ) but what exactly were you trying to show us with that chart you posted?? Pray Tell.

Ted??!? ( ??!??!? )

(Sun May 17 1998 11:59 - ID#433422)
MOZEL, I don' think the Constitution represents much of an obstacle

to the Klinton admin.

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 12:05 - ID#24135)
P/E Ratios of 5 to 7 ..
Cyclist ..
Would be bad for NA mines particularly.
I have assumed that the next few years
would see the RSA mines rerated upwards
against the North Americans.. It may be that
the reverse of this will eventuate and the
NA mines will simply fall toward the prices
of the South Africans ( The p/e ratios of
which are pretty low already .. with good
earnings even at this low gold price level.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:09 - ID#153102)
@Donald @ROR
Donald Usury is contrary to the Christian religion. And common-law. Usurious agreements are entered into in America under commercial law ( Uniform Commercial Code ) or statute of a state legislature modifying the common-law. So, the enforced law does not conform to the revealed moral law. There are just hardly any practicing Christians around. Everyone is worshipping in the temples of Baal, the god of usury, and Mammon, the god of money.
Mexican case is about capitalizing interest, not about usury per se.

ROR Constitution was amended after FDR to limit the consecutive terms of a person to the office of President to two.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:11 - ID#404246)
grant re: 11:04
Happiness through paranoia.....

I agree with you assessment of the situation. Having been in countries where there was a breakdown civil order, I agree totally with your comments about being out of luck if you have to shoot. Then only time I have ever seen it work was with the Korean's in Los Angeles ( field of fire is important ) . I too am armed to the teeth as only a Texan can be, but I plan on acting like a rabbit if I see a mob coming. A hundred guns with only one person to use them cannot hold off an army or a mob.

As far as what will be available, who knows? I do believe there will be outages ( not shortages ) of supplies for some period of time ( not less than one week but it could continue for many months ) . I too am stockpiling and starting a list of things that we do not want to do without.

One thing that came out of discussions with my friends over what to stockpile, was the realization that during this time of shortages we will most likely be trying to improvise, modify and repair what we have, as conditions change. Given that, do not forget to purchase supplies necessary for these modifications. An example would be glues. A selection of silicone, epoxy, crazy glue and others could be extremely useful if things go to the worse case side of the equation.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:12 - ID#286250)
The two BIS reports below listed are worth a read--for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the fact that in times of
upheaval the well-known road appears a safer course.

PDF Download
Full document: Introductory note on the Bank for International Settlements, 1930 - 1945 ( 9 pages, 50931 bytes )
Full document: Note on gold operations involving the Bank for International Settlements and the German Reichsbank,
1st September 1939 - 8th May 1945 ( 28 pages, 128331 bytes )
Reichsbank and BIS

Reports available at:

(Sun May 17 1998 12:17 - ID#153102)
Clinton is no different than Lincoln or or TR or FDR or Nixon.
The Constitution was both their source of power and a limit on their power. And all of them were aggrandizing Presidents.

Clinton's legal bills are certainly awfully big for somebody who you say ignores the Constitution.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:29 - ID#57232)
Chinagate -- thoughts
All: Just read today's New York times article ( from the Website ) . I think the spinmeisters will say that George Bush also tried to get US satellites on the Communist Chinese launchers, and signed a waiver allowing one launch on one of China's 'Long March' rockets. Also, according to this article, during the 1992 campaign, Al Gore accused Bush of permitting 5 addtional American satellites to be launched by the Chinese. He said: ' President Bush really is an incurable patsy for those dictators he sets out to coddle' He said this during a speech at the Goddard space flight center in Greenbelt, MD. Of course now the Clinton administration is doing the very same thing.

My assessment is that the damage of this one article to the Clinton administration will not be immediately evident. The really significant point here is that government insiders are now confident enough of their security ( safety? ) that they can release secret damaging information such as this. Interesting that Ron Brown's name is at the center of the missle scandal too. More is coming -- there will be a steady stream of such news, and the impeach Clinton movement will slowly gather steam.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:34 - ID#26793)
Canada to revise cash transaction laws.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:36 - ID#286250)
Donald--re: Mexico into the only economy outside the Islamic world to ban interest"

Re-visiting Suetonius this weekend; it all seems very familiar. We no longer recognize the power of moral force. That in no way negates its power. {:- )

(Sun May 17 1998 12:39 - ID#412286)
Headlines/ Flash forward 1/20/2005
In Washington today William Jefferson Clinton stepped down from his extended Presidency today to be succeeded by President Al Gore and Vice President Patrick Kennedy. Clinton was lauded by Gore for the stability he brought back to America after the financial market debacle of the late 1990's and the Y2k problem which only worsened the economic climate. Clinton always stated that the mkts had run amok due to wild speculation on Wall st and questionable promotional tactics re mutual funds. However, President Clinton's introduction of a two tiered currency system was a stroke of genius. The internal currency used domestically is at a fixed rate so there will be no more currency runs that destroy savings. Through regulations the govt has created bands within which prices may not move subject to increases in the internal money supply. Further, the internal currency allows for full payment of social security and fund other social programs. Americans gladly acceded to laws restricting ownership of foreign currencies and gold to reap the benefits of this new program after the devastating losses suffered in the mutual fund debacle. The commercial currency traded by the govt and large institutions allows for commerce to be conducted and for accounts to be settled with the new IMF WORLD BANK in Brussels. Americans will be allowed to obtain limited amounts of the commercial currency for trips abroad upon application to their local IMF WORLD BANK financial affiliate.

Upon leaving the Presidency President Clinton, due to his experience and accomplishments will move on to become General Secretary of the United Nations. Another big player in the administration will move to become the new head of the IMF WORLD BANK in Brussels. Gore and Kennedy plan to continue progressive policies which will revitalize the lost dream of the middle class.

In financial news the Dow jones closed at.... while gold closed at... which is near the high of its permitted trading range.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:43 - ID#26793)
Saturday bullion rates from India

(Sun May 17 1998 12:44 - ID#153102)
Do the rules and regulations of The Bank that you agreed to abide by on your bank signature card stipulate that the Directors of The Bank can require you to quarter soldiers ?

Do the rules and regulations of The Bank that you agreed to abide by on your bank signature card stipulate that it is not necessary for The Directors of The Bank to notify you of changes to the rules and regulations for them to have full and legal effect ?

Who or what entity is The Bank ? ( Hint: Look in the regulations of the Secretary of the Treasury according to which all banks operate in America and to the Acts of Congress authorizing them. )

(Sun May 17 1998 12:45 - ID#286250)
ROR--dear God,
you certainly know how to ruin a quiet Sunday! {:- ) )

(Sun May 17 1998 12:46 - ID#286279)
Remember, I am not an expert on the subject, but my opinion was that while noone is invincible, the chances of Master Aikidoman being in the alley while you are sweeping it with a 12ga are low. :- )

(Sun May 17 1998 12:50 - ID#57232)
Turning points -- thanks!
Cyclist: Thank you for your insight. I too am aware that cycles can continue for months or longer, and then abruptly invert. I have tried on several occasions to derive a mathematical indicator for this, so that I could compare the data with Astrophysical, or other events. No success so far, with the old eyeball still the best.

I am still puzzling over the Bradley siderograph. There is something really significant there, but I still can't figure out the physical process. However, the sudden inversions are clearly evident.

All: Appreciate the poster who recommended red ( winter? ) wheat as a good long-term food storage medium. I agree that if we have riots here like Indonesia, it will be good to have a little food stored. We are used to going to the market nearly every day.

A little warning to the gloom and doomers. Please think about what would happen to an isolated individual in the middle of nowwhere if civil unrest really does come our way.

How did our ancestors defend themselves from the indians -- by going into hiding, or by banding together in forts and wagon circles? Isolated homesteaders usually wound up without their scalps.

(Sun May 17 1998 12:51 - ID#286279)
I seem to spend less time downloading Kitco with PPP-Boost. Could these help relieve the strain on bandwidth if a lot of people used them?

(Sun May 17 1998 12:57 - ID#153102)
I think all of us who have Bank signature cards on file should be more concerned about what we have willingly agreed to than about fictive scenarios. Can you say today, "I am not one of yours" ?

(Sun May 17 1998 13:03 - ID#26793)
Columbian military officials may be operating a death squad.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:06 - ID#113316)
5 TO 7 PE
Had to leave a good discussion yesterday on gold leases due to delivery from Home Depot. Sorry for the interruption!

Anything is possible. 5 to 7 PEs in general would bring the DOW down to 2000 to 2500 with bigger losses in the NASDAQ. Several trillion dollars of market value would be lost, consumers would retrench ( as they have in Asia ) , and the economy would spiral down. It would be a disaster for financial assets, but what about physical assets?

Low PEs of nearly two decades ago were coupled with high inflation. Gold, silver, all of the PMs would enjoy much higher prices. In the case of HL in which I have a substantial position, gold at $500 and silver at $20 would result in earnings of $4 to $5 per share, not counting the prospect of bringing new and/or reclaiming old mines on line. At a PE of 5 to 7, this would imply a price of $20 to $35 per share, up from $6 today.

If you believe, as I do, that precious metals will rally to much higher levels when financial assets lose their "irrational exuberance" then PM stocks can and will go higher even with a retrenching financial market and lower PEs in general.

Of course, although I believe we are in for some rough times ahead, I do not believe at this moment that we are in for a collapse scenario, 1929 style stock market crash, or other end-of-the-world disaster. All that is necessary is a "return to normalcy", e.g., normal PE ratios, normal relationship between financial and physical assets, normal response to true supply and demand situations, etc.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:07 - ID#287312)
ROR is on the ball ?
ROR also applauds Government extortion of the tobacco industry.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:10 - ID#287312)
Donald: Big deal !
Janet Reno operates several death squads. REM: Waco / Vickie and Sammy Weaver, many more?

(Sun May 17 1998 13:10 - ID#153102)
@Canadian Currency Law Changes
`This could be a major step forward in meeting our international
commitments. I am committed to introducing legislation as soon as
possible.' Solicitor-General Andy Scott

To whom were those international committments made ? Was it to The Bank ?
You think you are not part of organized crime. Doesn't matter. It is only what they think when they apply the law that matters.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:11 - ID#26793)
In the absence of a gold standard, currency boards are the way to go.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:12 - ID#412286)

A group of outlaws have been flouting economic regulations and have conducted barter trading. Worse yet they are attempting to hoard gold and silver coins for resale at exhorbitant prices in terms of the internal dollar ( or $int. ) . This activity is a felony and carries a sentence of up to fifteen years in prison. Further, the recently enacted confiscation laws apply to anyone aiding or abetting this type of economic crime as well as to the4 principals. Please contact your local FBI or IRS office if you have any information so that these criminals can be apprehended.

In commdity news crude oil rose sharply higher closing up 1.5 Euros in late Brussels trading.

In Brussels IMF WORLD BANK President Robert Rubin announced a new far reaching monetary reform plan for all member nations. The plan requires each nation........

World leaders called to Brussels to discuss money laudering problems. New international penalties proposed for perpetrators.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:19 - ID#153102)
@You May Want To Understand This
The agreement you made with The Bank is outside the Constitution. It is a private agreement. It is non-constitutional. You cannot appeal for constitutional protection of your rights to prevent enforcement on you of the rules and regulations of The Bank. You agreed to abide by them.
Think long and hard on this.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:24 - ID#26793)
Heavy runoff from El Nino rains turning up gold nuggets in California rivers.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:30 - ID#153102)
@During The Campaign
Did not Clinton make the statement that you cannot be an attorney in this country without working for The Bank ?
Everybody laughed. Was it a joke ? Or were the people put on notice ?

(Sun May 17 1998 13:30 - ID#288156)
Thank you JTF, for you sane, sensible comments on 'circling the wagons'...
Bunker mentality won't get us where we need to go!
Safety through difficult times and setting-right of that which has
gone wrong requires a banding together of family, friends and neighbors...incredible things CAN be accomplished by an aware,
committed and Morally Armed citizenry.

Mozel@What.are.alternatives? This is probably a very stupid question,
but what CAN one do? Is it possible to refuse/decline to sign
the card?

(Sun May 17 1998 13:35 - ID#153102)
Nobody can force you to open a bank account.
But if you sign a Bank signature card, they can force you to do anything in the rules and regulations of The Bank.
What is more important to you ? Banking on those terms or your Freedom ?

(Sun May 17 1998 13:36 - ID#228128)
Aurophile: Thanks for the info.
IDT is the initials of my statistcal consulting company, Intergroup Data and Technology.

(Sun May 17 1998 13:39 - ID#342315)
Rhody re au, pt,pd and te
I looked at my sheaf of XRAL assays. One page has AU,PT,PD andTE. admittedly they are lograde, but there are 2 host formations-amphiblites and pyroxenites. If you want a copy, please wait till i get a set from XRAL. Bugs got in and ate some pertinent details. Charlie

(Sun May 17 1998 13:47 - ID#347235)
Listining to Bibi this morning on CNN, he sure sure gave Wolf Blitzerca lot to think about!,Every time ol' Wolf tried to cut him off he just kept on going! GOOD Show!

(Sun May 17 1998 13:56 - ID#342315)
robnoel re metric tons
I would appreciate an email from you. Mine is Maybe I could learn from your experience. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun May 17 1998 14:00 - ID#255190)
The financial sector, specificly the big ones, will be somewhat more or less compliant. When was the last time you played Russian Roulette with a gun that had half the chambers loaded? Never? Why do the same thing with your net worth? It seems that we really have so little sense or sensibility regarding the probability of failure and its outcomes that we blithely consider failure as an viable option.

If half of the banks do not make it what then??? What if the interbank settlements system bombs? Remember, it is only the US financial sector of all sectors and of all nations which has spent much in the way of time or money on this problem. So if they make it and the whole world goes to hell in a hand basket ... what good will their systems do them? Maybe they can use them to count the .. what? Number of shares that no one can trade? or possibly the total destruction of economies and populations?

I'm on a little rant here. I'm sorry. Its just that this problem is the equivalent of a meteor impacting the planet: massively destructive, both globally and locally as well. We are hard pressed to imagine the outcome because we really have no president for comparison.

To get an idea of the problem do this experiment. Collect 144 bottles, or anything that is upright and you can tie strings onto the tops. Number the bottles. Set them up as a 12 by 12 grid. For each bottle roll a die ( 1 to 6 ) ; this represents the number of other bottles to which this bottle is connected. For each "connection" roll a pair of dice twice to determine the row and column of the destination connection. Tie a string from the bottle top to the destination. Repeat this for all bottles.

Now. Use a die ( 1 to 6 ) to determine the number of bottles which shall be 'felled' because of a Y2K problem. Use a pair of dice, rolled twice to determine the row and column for each 'felled' bottles. On the count of three knock these bottles over simultaneously.

Question: how many bottles remain standing afterward?

Now you know why we are in a bad way. This represents only, at most, 4% of organizations failing. The problem is one of cascading dependencies. It is not linear, it is exponential.
If you think this is to set up then make only one or two connections per bottle. Do it all over again. Same result. Exponetial failure. In semiconductors this is known as thermal runaway. In the chemical business its known as a explosion.

I stongly suggest that until you have done this experiment you will have no experiential grasp of the kind of problem this represents and of its outcome.

(Sun May 17 1998 14:00 - ID#411112)
chas,what do you need to know?we share info here


John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 14:12 - ID#24135)
Well I know I'm through
with rubber headed arrows
Auric and Sam..
AikidoMan made a fool of me.

Next time it's gonna be double
ought buck .. thats for sure.

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 14:15 - ID#24135)
Allan ..
I tried but I cant find that many
godd@m bottles .. Gimme something
less demanding..

(Sun May 17 1998 14:15 - ID#153102)
If nothing else is functioning in Y2K, The Bank will be functioning.
If you have not read my posts from earlier today, the full import of this statement is going to be lost on you.

(Sun May 17 1998 14:16 - ID#342315)
robnoel re your reply
Glad to share, just didn't wan to take up bandwidth with history. I have had a couple of inquiries wanting to buy gold in metric ton lots. They want a discount and before I go any further I would appreciate your comments. On a trial check, one London bullion merchant backed out on the mention of metric tons. Thanx a lot for your comments, Charlie

John Disney__A
(Sun May 17 1998 14:19 - ID#24135)
Somehow I dont think that photo
of Bill Clinton with his arm around
the Red Chinese General is gonna go
down so well on Main Street USA.

(Sun May 17 1998 14:26 - ID#359316)
And the one of Clinton and Hashimoto arm in arm...

(Sun May 17 1998 14:33 - ID#341234)
Increase Internet Speed
For those of you wishing to increase your Internet speed, changing your registery settings may not be a magic bullet. I just finished testing download speeds with and without the new settings, and the times were slightly better with the old default settings. If you have a poor connection, your results may be different. It is always a good idea to test any speed claims with a stop watch. It is hard for the brain to just "tell the difference". When testing Internet speed, be sure to clear your temporary Internet file cache before each test.

(Sun May 17 1998 14:34 - ID#411112)
Chas,are there legit metric ton deals yes,would you/me get a shot at one NO....for a good laugh go

to Kitco's classified section ( free adds ) I
see so many of those deals posted it's a
joke,I know the attraction of making a couple
hunderd thousand bucks in commission is a big
draw....but who would in there right mind put
up millions of dollars without seeing the
product.....Nigerians pull a similar scam,my
advice don't waste your time,same goes for
dirt deals......future delivery gold buy now
at discount...yeah sure...bend over carefull out there,nothing is what
it seems anymore

(Sun May 17 1998 14:40 - ID#342315)
Auric re your 03:43
I would like to have some expansion on this. I agree because I can't see any gold connection at a dependable price beyond the foreseeable future. What's the difference between the Euro and the US$ ? Backing, schmacking, if you can't depend on obtaining gold for any price here, what's the difference. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun May 17 1998 14:42 - ID#287114)
So when the big bang of the DOW bubble is finally heard.
What % are you betting it will fall.

(Sun May 17 1998 14:46 - ID#286279)
I was wondering if instead of improving everyday speed for some users, MTU adjustment might help prevent nasty slowdowns WHEN CONDITIONS WORSEN? I am not a computer guy, I'm just guessing. Wait and see, maybe time will tell?

(Sun May 17 1998 14:54 - ID#341234)
To: Donald, Re: Oversupply of Gold
The fundamentals of supply and demand should be enough to push the price of gold back up to at least $400, but the article you posted yesterday points out why this is going to take a while.
"No wonder gold is in trouble. Last year, when its price plunged below $US300 an ounce to an 18-year low, what did the world's gold mines do? They produced more gold."

I suppose this was unavoidable because mining companies needed to maintain their revenue. The tide is turning, though. There have been far fewer announcements of new exploration this year, and we have seen some mine closures. I still believe we may see $400 by the end of '98 and certainly by the beginning of '99.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:11 - ID#45173)
"just one breakdown shuts down everything" is simply not true. If the mainframe at my bank shuts down, it will not even effect even another bank, never mind any other industry, although if there are many of these Y2K bank problems the confidence of people in banks may degrade to the point where there is a general run on banks. Even the loss of one mission critical system at a major financial institution will not seriously effect others.

My biggest concerns are private and public data networks, military and other government computer systems, voice communication networks, and imbedded systems that regulate energy production and flow. The latter is the most troubling to me. Without power, all bets are off. And it's not like the power will go out because a fuse blew and all they have to do is replace it. Pinpointing the sources of y2K problems after the fact will be hard because they will be numerous, spread out over a wide geographic area, and will effect each other in ways that will make them difficult to isolate. This means if we are without power, it will be that way for weeks or months. Starting in January, in the middle of the winter. No power, no heat. No heat, no water. If our government is to behave like one and act in the interests of its citizens, then it should be doing absolutely everything to ensure that this does not under any circumstances happen. Is anyone aware of a government agency that is now overseeing the utility industry to make sure Y2K problems are addressed?

(Sun May 17 1998 15:13 - ID#342315)
robnoel re "BigDeal"
My suspicions exactly. That's why I asked you when I saw the post. A pipeline to tons of gold ought to be worth more than a few hundred thousand bucks. I don't have and I can live withou it. Thanx, Charlie

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun May 17 1998 15:17 - ID#384350)
Buffett and Munger's comments on Silver Purchase
These are from the annual meeting, May 5, 1998:

Shareholder: I had a question about the silver purchase last year. When you announced it, you said that the supply and demand fundamentals would be established at a higher price. What are the fundamentals?

Buffett: We have no inside information about great new uses for silver or anything of the sort. You can see from looking at the numbers that aggregate demand, primarily from investor and fundamental type uses, is close to 800 million-plus ounces a year, and there are 500 million or so ounces of silver being produced annually, although there will be more coming on in the next couple years. Most of that silver is produced as a by-product in the mining for copper, lead or zinc. Since it's a by-product, it's not very responsive to price changes.

There's been a gap in recent years of perhaps 150 million ounces, which has been filled by inventory bullion above ground, which may have been a billion or two or more ounces a few years back. There's no question that the bullion inventory has been depleted significantly. Which means that the present price for silver does not produce an equilibrium between supply as measured by newly-mined silver plus reclaimed silver and uses. And eventually something will happen to change that. I figure it could be reduced usage, increased supply, or change in price. That imbalance is significant, even though there is some production coming on and some digital imaging that will use silver that is targeted. We think that the gap is wide enough so that it will continue to deplete bullion inventories to the point where a new price is able to establish equilibrium. We don't think that price change will necessarily be minor.

It's interesting because silver has been artificially influenced for a long time. In 1934, the government passed an act called the Silver Purchase Act, which set an artificially high price for silver at that time when production was much less, and the US government kept 2 billion ounces of silver. This was a time when demand was 100 million ounces a year. There was an artificially high price for a while.

By the early 1960s, that became an artificially low price at $1.29. And at that time I could see the inventories of the US government being depleted somewhat akin to how they're being depleted now and despite the fact that the Lyndon Johnson administration said they would not commoditize silver, they did commoditize it. That was the last purchase that we had of silver and I've been watching it ever since.

The Hunt brothers caused a great amount of silver to be converted into silver coins. They again increased supply in a very big way by their action in pushing prices way up to where people started knocking it down .

There have been dislocations in silver over a 60-plus year period, which has caused the price to be affected by these huge inventory accumulations and reductions. We think right now--we thought last summer when we started buying it--that the price we bought it at was not an equilibrium price, but would be sooner or later.

Munger: I think this whole episode will have about as much impact on Berkshire Hathaway's future as Warren's bridge playing. It's an activity where once every 30 or 40 years you do something and employ 2% of assets. This is not a big deal for Berkshire. To the extent that it keeps Warren amused, and he's not doing counterproductive things, it's a good thing.

Buffett: This makes me feel good about all the pictures people took this weekend. We can all use a little bit of silver.

Munger: It teaches an interesting lesson, the discipline it takes to think about something for 3-4 decades, then wait for a chance. That's the way we are.

Buffett: It's ( Berkshire's position is ) less than $1 billion in silver, it's $15 billion in Coke, it's $5 billion in American Express. It is close to a non-event.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:18 - ID#341234)
To: Sam, Y2K Payroll
I agree that a smaller MTU setting could help if the lines are bad. I am an Industrial Engineer and have a bad habit of questioning everything as I am very skeptical.

Being skeptical, I never believe in disaster scenarios; however, this Y2K bug is different. I wrote a simple payroll program a couple years ago in a database language, and I had to add a lot of work to it to make it compliant. I predict there will be small factories all over the world that are not able to do their payroll at the beginning of Y2K. Many small manufacturing plants and contractors use old or custom written payroll programs. They will not have a programmer who can fix Y2K bugs. They will be forced to learn how to do payroll by hand, which is not easy.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:18 - ID#206235)

(Sun May 17 1998 15:19 - ID#253153)
Failure of the G8 summit
International meetings , whether economic or political, central bank or labor, U.N. committees or any others appear to have replaced cafe society and jet set gatherings which also included photographers and reporters and V.I.P. transportation,food drink and housing at fashionable watering holes.The only difference is that the fashionable had to pay their own bills, now we taxpayers foot them. Chalk one up for Mr.Clinton. For those in the market place, there are several rules to follow. Meetings are sometimes for relaxation and ego building, sometimes to conceal serious problems, but never to solve problems.I have decided that the purpose of this meeting was to conceal serious problems. With runaway deflation escalating and dollar shortages developing , the G8 have decided that the IMF will extend additional credit to countries that have not been able to pay their debts. This is the same old solution that has not worked in the past and will not work now. The markets will take take over and make all the economic decisions for the new managers in Washington.Any market,
when it rises exponentially never maintains that high level. Exponential rises end in an implosion as the tulip bulbs imploded in Holland several hundred years ago. That implosion has already started in Asia and it will spread to our shores.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:26 - ID#348129)
@EJ - Say What?
""just one breakdown shuts down everything" is simply not true. If the mainframe at my bank shuts down, it will not even effect even another bank"
Where do you get your information from?
Banks run MVS Batch systems every night, mission critical systems that
must complete by the next business day.
All Interbank settlements have to be processed or else the GL's don't balance - they must be balanced ech day to conduct business.
If the GL sytem were to go down, the bank could be caught in a liquidity crisis and the regulators would immediately be allerted.
Other Banks would immediately call in interbank loans.
Do I need to go on ???
If you wish to ignore the facts you can, at your perile.........

(Sun May 17 1998 15:30 - ID#263379)
Telling part of the truth is no better than telling a LIE!
Gold production by all of the miners worldwide is about 1,000 TONS less than world demand.

A 1,000 ton disparity, that's cumulative!

1998 will have similar gold production BUT will have world greater demand....

Why doesn't the media fully discuss this?

I think we know of one reason, Uncle Sam FEAR........

Fear for the US$, stockmarket, economy, political positions, etc. etc. etc. Fear of a derivitive debacle!

If this is not part of the truth, what is the truth?????

(Sun May 17 1998 15:33 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro Thx for the post on Buffet. Very interesting.
I'm 3% in silver myself.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:44 - ID#286279)
I wonder if ADP is prepared for Y2K, I wonder if they can handle a lot of new clients.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:45 - ID#45173)
MoReGoLd It's easy to develop doom scenarios about banks and Y2K
Some nights I lay awake thinking about it. Your scenario seems plausible, yet most banks that know they aren't going to be ready in time are already selling themselves to banks that will, rather than go out of business. How many banks will think they are ready but will not be ready? That's a tough question. That's the main reason for my survey. Will you write in? See post:

Sun May 17 1998 09:21
EJ ( To all Kitcos: Bank survey to the bottom of the Y2K question ) ID#45173


(Sun May 17 1998 15:45 - ID#359316)
1000 tonnes? no problem, nice cheap gold loan

(Sun May 17 1998 15:52 - ID#341234)
Another, Sam
Another is back on K2. I will be handling all the purchases of worthless gold from Kitcoites who have been deceived.

Sam: You got me thinking. Payroll companies could be a great investment if they are compliant. That is if there is power and the factories are still open.

(Sun May 17 1998 15:58 - ID#45173)
I happen to know that ADP will be ready for Y2K. They are a customer of mine and I've seen what they've done. For a big, lumbering company, they've been nimble on the Y2K front, largely because they know how much they have to lose. I also know that they'd be happy to have new customers. In fact, they need them.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:11 - ID#287312)
Skinny: A wild guess !
I don't believe that a twenty percent correction is possible. People are so fully invested the margins couldn't be covered with out a bigger selloff. I don't know what the falls will be but I believe we'll see 3000 or less on the Dow before 1/1/2000.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:17 - ID#290118)
Y2K could be an opportunity for new or existing small locally-owned community banks to take back the customers they lost to the big outfits. They could capitalize on trust they can offer local customers. If/when, come a major political and financial and monetary meltdown, COULD BANKS ISSUE THEIR OWN GOLD AND SILVER COINS OR GOLD BACKED CURRENCY. The Bank of Mozel perhaps?
EJ - too bad most folks cant casually walk unannounced into their bank presidents office and ask how Y2K compliant their bank is and whether they guarantee they will be operating normally through the Y2K transition. I have and she did ( while she was shopping at my little shop ) .
Most bank presidents are often several states away or at least across town and sequestered in a penthouse office and shielded by several cordons of receptionists and vice-presidents.
But as MoReGoLd stated - even a small community bank could be in deep doo doo if its overnight batch run failed to balance the GL system. But I think/hope our small locally-owned bank could deal with it better than an interstate or international bank could. They could react faster. A forward-looking innovative present or potential banker could even start buying GOLD and SILVER coins NOW - to help us return to honest money after the crash.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:17 - ID#288295)

This is ANOTHER imposter. The correct Kitco ID# is 60253.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:23 - ID#341234)
To: Silverbaron
I confess to that one. Funny, yes?

(Sun May 17 1998 16:28 - ID#254112)
@mozel (@Canadian Currency Law Changes)
Reading your post I thought of a famous quote from Berthold Brecht:

"What is the crime of robbing a bank compared to the founding of a bank."

Disclaimer: The above dosn't encourage to rob banks or or attempt to morally excuse such activities.

Also: I don't like Brecht. But I can't help to admit that he wrote some good stuff.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun May 17 1998 16:53 - ID#412286)
DBC? Anyone?
What is the web site address for DBC quotes. Thanks in advance.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:54 - ID#255190)
Typical contract legalese will often define an abbreviated title for the corporate entity represented in the remainder of the document. "American Standard Fruit Packers" henceforth called 'The Company' .. etc. In this case you may wish to go back and read the first part of the document in which this definition might have been made.

In terms of contracts not being disclosed and still binding, well that sounds unsuppportable in court to me. Maybe our friend TORTFESTER can talk to this issue. Sounds bogus to me.

Regardless, it seems to me that there is plenty of evil in this world and one does well to walk as circumspectly as possible without becoming disfunctional. If indeed there were a "The Bank" which was master over all then I'd say that was a pretty peice of conviving. Certainly many foes to have vanquished to that exalted state of supremecy.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:55 - ID#290118)
ROR, your earlier post at 12:43 where you have Clinton resigning and moving on to General Secretary of the UN may be closer to future reality than we may wish to admit. Why is he spending so much time, etc. in preserving his political career? Where can his career go after being President of the US? Remember the much earlier review of TRAGEDY and HOPE that postulated that Clinton is a true believer {and now mover and shaker} of the New World Order.

ROR, you put into words what Ive been thinking for quite some time.

And your idea of local IMF WORLD BANK branches is haunting to say the least.

Your post of 13:12 is truer to reality NOW than many know. I thought you were reporting current events. There were 2 or 3 sequential articles in the Colorado Libertarian newsletter earlier this year on just such Federal investigation and action against a Denver barter group using SILVER and GOLD. The agency was the IRS not the FBI in the current case.

SDRer was right - what a way to stir up a quiet Sunday afternoon on the net.

(Sun May 17 1998 16:57 - ID#255190)
John Disney

Possibly Oris could help with the bottle cllection effort. Here 'cub scotts' have bottle drives often. Possibly you could make a donation to the local club in return for 144 bottles. Be creative, man, its for your education!

(Sun May 17 1998 16:58 - ID#254112)
@mozel: Enforcement of non-constitutional Bank rules and regulations.
You wrote this remarkable post:
"The agreement you made with The Bank is outside the Constitution. It is a private agreement. It is non-constitutional. You cannot appeal for constitutional protection of your rights to prevent enforcement on you of the rules and regulations of The Bank. You agreed to abide by them.
Think long and hard on this."

This sounds incredible. Does that mean that The Bank can anytime get around the constitution and base rules on people on their own liking?
For instance: force people to host soldiers in their homes as you said in a prior post?
Can The Bank enforce anything?

Does America honor the holy right of hospitality towards strangers?
This was the major criteria for the ancient Greeks to call peoples "barbarians" or to accept them as part of their own culture.

Shall we get ready to leave this country?

I don't want to get involved into a shootout to resolve these serious questions.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun May 17 1998 17:05 - ID#411112)
EL/Moregold...One you shhould both catch my show on Wednesday,and you need to check out these web

pages,I wish I knew the answer but I don't,and there is no one I have come across who can even Alan Greenspan;

(Sun May 17 1998 17:09 - ID#359316)
What did Richard M Nixon move on to?

(Sun May 17 1998 17:10 - ID#273227)
honest truth vs politican + silver thoughts
RJ - Just a personaly opinion, but I liked your posts better when they were honest, truthful and to the point. This politican side of you reminds me of the scumbags in Washington.

I still think we'll see silver rise when the commercials start taking

delivery. The best information I can find is that Kodak is unhedged

for 55 million ou. this year. Fuji's demand is rising but I can't find

any hard numbers. I should know more on Kodak's buying habits next week.
(Sun May 17 1998 17:20 - ID#434108)
from " AP On the Hour" :: )

Pakistan Will Test Nuclear Device

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan ( AP ) -- Pakistan's foreign minister said today
that the country's Cabinet has decided to test a nuclear device in response
to India's five explosions last week. A U.S. delegation in Pakistan was
told yesterday that the government had not made a final decision on
testing. But Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub said today that Pakistan's
position has since hardened. The prime minister said that Pakistan needs
only 12 hours of preparation to explode a nuclear device.

India Working on Nuclear Missiles

NEW DELHI, India ( AP ) -- India is now perfecting missiles to carry a
nuclear bomb after five tests last week proved the country has the ability
to produce a nuclear bomb. The government's top nuclear scientist said
India was working to increase the range of its Agni missile. It is believed
to have a range of 1,550 miles, enough to reach Shanghai or Beijing. India
has said it needs a nuclear defense against China and neighboring
Pakistan. India has also tested a short-range ballistic missile, which can
target Pakistani cities within 95 miles.

Gov't Set To File Against Microsoft

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The long-awaited courtroom collision between
the government and Microsoft appears imminent, with the Justice
Department and at least 20 states set to file antitrust suits tomorrow that
could change how consumers buy and use most computers. Microsoft in
turn has pledged to flout the two sides' differences by going ahead with
shipments of the latest upgrade of its flagship software, Windows 98.
Eleventh-hour negotiations collapsed yesterday over what Microsoft
described as the government's ``unreasonable demands.''

Starr Doubles Capital Office Space

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr has hired
10 new lawyers and more than doubled his Washington office space since
January to handle new investigations and shift the focus of his activities
from Arkansas to the nation's capital. Starr's inquiries, which began as a
probe of Arkansas land deals involving President Clinton and Hillary
Rodham Clinton, have expanded to include the president's relationship
with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, the possible misuse of
FBI files and other matters. He now employs 27 lawyers: six in Little
Rock, Ark., and 21 in Washington.

(Sun May 17 1998 17:26 - ID#290118)
Slick Willy is a lot more capable of slipping the noose and turning into something worse than Tricky Dicky. It won't be the first time a tyrant rose from a prison cell to rule an empire ( Hitler, Marion Barry, et al ) . I wouldn't put it past him and his handlers to try the declaration of emergency in order to stay in power. That would result in a wholesale revolution of the military and patriotic citizens. Actually that revolution is well underway as we speak. But Klinton figures he is untouchable - that is why he could ignorantly try such a stupid action.
The street price of GOLD would go through the roof if it was outlawed.

(Sun May 17 1998 17:45 - ID#254112)
@robnoel: your 17:05 Thanks for pointing to these two
very interesting web sites!


(Sun May 17 1998 17:50 - ID#43460)
Not everybody who kicks you in your head is your enemy

(Sun May 17 1998 17:53 - ID#43460)
Try again.
For some reason long URLs don't work from the Kitoc short edition. And if there is insufficient verbage before the URL they still don't work. So I'll try again.
(Sun May 17 1998 17:55 - ID#434108)
achilles' heel: "Japan"
Princeton Economics Institute has good article re. Japan's depression, and potential flash-point for 'economic-meltdown'

(Sun May 17 1998 17:59 - ID#403275)
Just got back from K2 ( or is it K3? ) ... whatever. Our phony fella is just playing a good natured prank. Heck, he's not even trying to be believable. K2 inhabitants are not being taken in either.

Gold as a boat anchor ... Ha, ha, ha ... and he'll buy it all back from ya at $250/oz!


(Sun May 17 1998 18:00 - ID#153102)
@Alberich & Allen
Think long and hard on this. You entered your agreement with The Bank voluntarily. You don't have to be a lawyer to understand that your rights and obligations are spelled out in the agreement and that they are outside the Constitution.

Think of yourself as a Babylonian farmer who went to the Temple of Baal and entered an agreement with a priest. That is precisely your legal situation. And the governemt is established to enforce agreements and will enforce them.

The Bank is The World Bank and whatever else is designated by the Secretary of the Treasury in his regulations. If you had read my post on the Statuatory History of Deep Do Do, you would have read it there in the statute.

Your local bank is a licensee of the federal government. The government regulates the opening of accounts. The Statutes are part of the agreement. It is not a common-law contract. It is a stipulated agreement of the Roman civil law type.

If you don't want to give up your Freedom to be immune from the rules and regulations of The Bank, then do not bank on those terms. Rescind your application and cancel your account.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun May 17 1998 18:01 - ID#384350)
Berkshire Annual Meeting Comments
In addition to the dialogue about Silver posted earlier, a much broader array of dialogue from BRK's AGM can be found at Morningstar:

(Sun May 17 1998 18:11 - ID#153102)
"And your idea of local IMF WORLD BANK branches is haunting to say the
Find and read the Statuatory History of Deep Do Do that I posted. Understand the local IMF WORLD BANK branches have been here since the founding of IMF and World Bank.

(Sun May 17 1998 18:14 - ID#153102)
On what grounds can you maintain that the terms of your agreement with The Bank were not disclosed ? Go and read the admissions you subscribed to with your signature. The plea that it was a Frostrich that signed that and not I will not hold water.

(Sun May 17 1998 18:14 - ID#218222)
Elliot comments yvan auger

The Elliott Wave Principle
applied to the
XAU Gold & Silver index

A free service brought to you by Yvan Auger.

Precious Metals market summary

For the week ending May 14th, 1998.
Gold Spot
c of B of Y
Silver Spot

The XAU waves are telling us...

May 14th, 1998
Began at
Current Position

Commentary for Friday, May 14th,: I think the picture is finally clearing up, and it looks bullish. Last week I was rather bearish
with an expected up-down sequence. The XAU did exactly that but failed to move above 87 and then turned around quite strongly
at 81.49.

This alone with waning momentum would suggest we should expect another rally. But what really excites me is at the Thursday
morning low the XAU left us with a beautiful double ZigZag that began at the April high. Within each ZigZag we have near
equality between waves 'a' and 'c' and then the second zigzag is 0.04 point away from being exactly 61.8% the lenght of the first
one, a common relationship. ZigZags are corrective patterns suggesting they will be entierly retraced. So we must expect a move
back above 93. This action fits also the Canadian and Australian index.

Again, 99 would be an ideal target being the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline from all-time high. This is also the level
where the upper trendline would be in about two weeks. All cycles crested this week and are now pointing down. Don't be
surprised if the rally is short and sweet. Besides, June has never been a stellar month for the XAU.

In the very short term Friday action was wave 1 of the last leg up. Wave 2 should last one or two days and then expect a strong
rally towards the end of the week. A moves below 81.5 won't change my bullish outlook but rather put the alternate count in the
forefront. If that sceanrio prevails, there's very strong resistance between 80-81. A close below 78 will not be in keeping with my
view and will move me neutral.

Gold seems ready to move up too but I am not too sure what path it will take. Although given the outlook in the XAU it's highly
possible Gold reaches 307 at minimum.

See you on May 23rd. Enjoy yourself!

(Sun May 17 1998 18:24 - ID#411163)
Mozel+All the right of setoff
Has anyone mentioned the right of setoff? I remember in the early 1980's when some bank got into trouble and took money from peoples saving accounts and used it to pay off or on the same peoples home and business loans. This happened EVEN WHEN THE PEOPLE WERE CURRENT WITH THEIR PAYMENTS. The moral of this story is not to have any other accounts in the bank you have a mortgage with. I remember one woman who lost here business when the bank took her operating capital from her business account and used it to pay down her home loan. She couldn't pay her business bills and went broke-also losing her home as she she had no income then. Its a dirty game.

(Sun May 17 1998 18:28 - ID#287114)
In simple language its this simple.

There are far too many Hillbillys and Taxi Drivers holding stocks.

They are probably all on wellfare.

When the big stock bang happens, one thing must be kept in mind.

For every seller there must be a buyer.

The Exchange can put on all the fancy % stop trades they want , so the market closes on a % down, it reopens and the stock is bid 30% what do they do then.

If they can muster enough nerve.....

They may refer to it as a CRASH.

(Sun May 17 1998 18:31 - ID#340459)
What time does Australia and Japan open in EST terms, Can anyone answer, Thanks....

(Sun May 17 1998 18:34 - ID#426220)

Trading starts at 8PM NYT

(Sun May 17 1998 18:36 - ID#252150)
JD & Vronsky@Is this Times article mostly just fear mongering or is SA sinking into anarchy
They claim that even Capetown is no longer safe.

The low POG must exacerbate the Govt's problems.

Gangsters declare war on Mandela

by Andrew Malone, Cape Town

IN THE Little House on the Prairie, an illegal drinking den less than 30 minutes' drive from the centre of Cape Town, the rich and powerful of the "new" South Africa gathered last week to talk politics and money. As the wind whipped sand across the Cape Flats, a desolate plain that is home to 3m impoverished people, members of the Sexy Boys and Hard Living gangs sipped cold beers and announced that they were going to war.

Brandishing an AK-47 assault rifle, Sticks "The Mongrel" Nbugane, a self-confessed mob hitman, leapt to his feet and fired bullets into the wall. "This is what they have got coming," he cried.

The gangsters who control South Africa's burgeoning prostitution, drugs and protection rackets have been angered by the plan of President Nelson Mandela's government to seize their assets. The move is part of a campaign to contain a crime wave which is threatening the future of the country.

Rashied Staggie, described by police as the most wanted man in South Africa, regards this lack of "respect" from the government as intolerable. "Look! Mandela was a gangster who used force against the white government," said Staggie, who plans to form his own political party.

"Now they call him a politician. We have had enough. We are going to take over the country."

In what Thabo Mbeki, the deputy president, acknowledged last week was a "national emergency", the gangs have become the most potent symbols of the anarchy sweeping the country.

Staggie, whose twin brother Rashaad was shot and set on fire by vigilantes two years ago, is funding the United Democratic Alliance, which will challenge the African National Congress ( ANC ) in elections next year. He already controls most of the Cape Flats.

With wealth estimated at 10m, he leads the Hard Living gang, a 10,000-strong force of armed men who trade in drugs and death. He was tried for the murder of a rival gangster earlier this year, but was acquitted. People are scared to testify against him. Last week two witnesses to another gangland murder were gunned down in a Cape Town suburb after they agreed to appear in court.

Crime is no longer confined to the slums. In March six members of the Junkie Kids, another gang, were executed outside the Waterfront, a tourist development in the heart of the city. Another four gangsters were found dead in a suburb last week.

People are growing nervous. Each day 63 people are murdered in South Africa. An estimated 1m whites have left the country since Mandela was elected in 1994. Others have moved from Johannesburg, the crime capital, to Cape Town, which is regarded as safer - but now many of them are also preparing to leave.

The police unit charged with tackling Cape Town's gangs believes they are stronger than ever. Earning 150 a month, the 60 officers of the city's anti-gang squad are outmanned, outgunned and frequently outwitted. When I accompanied one patrol last week, officers carrying pump-action shotguns and backed by an army unit swooped on homes believed to be used by gangsters. In five raids they recovered 100, three crack cocaine pipes and a small amount of marijuana.

The occupant of one house fired three shots through the bars of his front door when the police arrived, then fled down an alley. The officers returned his fire but he got away. Groups of residents threw stones at the police. Nobody was arrested.

For the police, the temptations are great. With gangsters earning thousands of pounds a week, many officers take bribes in exchange for turning a blind eye. "Everybody needs money," said Ricky Offstander, a member of the unit. "I would never take the money because these people are scum. But I understand why some people do."

The biggest problem is the number of guns on the streets. In the Little House on the Prairie, an AK-47 can be bought for 130. Guns pour in from war zones across Africa.

With the police fighting a losing battle, groups of vigilantes opposed to the gangs have sprung up. Pagad ( People Against Gangsterism and Drugs ) , a force of Islamic fundamentalists allegedly linked to Iran, has carried out a series of revenge killings.

The prospect of Staggie becoming a political figure horrifies the police, who fear he may end up in parliament. He reputedly pays the rents of many people in the townships, where male unemployment runs at more than 70%.

Staggie smiled last week at the possibility of political office. "People make out that I am some sort of psychopath," he said as his two children played on his knee and armed men stood guard outside. "I just want to do my bit for the community."

(Sun May 17 1998 18:38 - ID#31876)
Thanks to Steve Blizard and Colin Seymour, Some Important Links

(Sun May 17 1998 18:41 - ID#340459)
@vronsky, Thanks Brother..
Hope it is straight up from here this Summer for Gold..

(Sun May 17 1998 18:43 - ID#30116)
Try this for their home page.

(Sun May 17 1998 18:44 - ID#252150)
Skinny@ Since you mentioned welfare. I wonder how many Mutual Funds this guy owns.


The bartender was washing his glasses, when an elderly Irishman
came in.

With great difficulty, the Irishman hoisted his bad leg over the
barstool, pulled himself up painfully, and asked for a sip of Irish
whiskey. The Irishman looked down the bar and said, "Would that be
Jesus down there?" The bartender nodded, so the Irishman told him
to give Jesus an Irish whiskey, too.

The next patron to come in was an ailing Italian with a hunched back,
who moved very slow. He shuffled up to the barstool and asked for a
glass of Chianti. He also looked down the bar and asked if that was
Jesus sitting at the end of the bar. The bartender nodded, so the
Italian said to give Him a glass of Chianti, too.

The third patron to enter the bar was a redneck, who swaggered into
the bar and hollered, "Barkeep, set me up a cold one! Hey, is that
God's Boy down there?" The barkeep nodded, so the redneck told him
to give Jesus a cold one, too.

As Jesus got up to leave, he walked over to the Irishman and touched
him and said, "For your kindness, you are healed!" The Irishman felt
the strength come back to his leg, so he got up and danced a jig out
the door.

Jesus touched the Italian and said, "For your kindness, you are

The Italian felt his back straighten, so he raised his hands above his
head and did a flip out the door.

Jesus walked toward the redneck, but the redneck jumped back and
exclaimed, "Don't touch me! I'm drawing disability!"

(Sun May 17 1998 18:49 - ID#30116)
Here are more URLs.

This futures page is pretty good too...

Then there's the weekly calander of events ...

But then again, you can find whatever you may want here...

(Sun May 17 1998 18:52 - ID#30116)
Here are more URLs. This futures page is pretty good...

Then there's the weekly calander of events

But then again, you can find whatever you may want here...

(Sun May 17 1998 18:52 - ID#411149)
From the SI thread-

To: kitkat ( 3 )
Sunday, May 17 1998 12:08AM ET
Reply # of 6

Not quite sure of where you are coming from in your statement. Whether
we are right or wrong the amount of intense effort that goes into our
analysis is supremo. I will tell you this. We have recent confirmation that
our thesis that among other things, Central Bank EMU related selling has
buried the market, and that only about 100 tonnes is now left. When that
ends, the huge normal deficit of excess demand over supply ( according
to our calculcations ) will drive the price of gold up sharply. It will, in our
opinion, go up and down, but reach $370 to $400 within one year. More
importantly, and this is an alert, a very big move up is coming very soon.
When the last tranche of EMU related selling ends, which should be
soon, the market will lift sharply as specs buy and producers ( not in the
know ) try to cover.
Bill Murphy
Veneroso Associates.

TALLY HO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sun May 17 1998 18:55 - ID#30116)
OK! I give up! Futures contracts.

Then there's the weekly calander of events But then again, you can find whatever you may want here...

(Sun May 17 1998 19:01 - ID#340459)
I feel that POG may go up this week, Any Bets ?
Gallop like a good Throughbred at Churchill Downs...

(Sun May 17 1998 19:08 - ID#340459)
Folks, Move out of Indonesian Mining for the Short Term..
Summer is here, Gold will sizzle..

Mike K__A
(Sun May 17 1998 19:23 - ID#153283)
Gold Futures (Allen, Arden, DA or Glenn)
You all came recommended by Auric.

Anyone care to point me to a website, a good book or provide instructions on how to trade gold futures? I've been lurking here awhile and have become convinced that gold today is a good defensive position and the upside may be a significant bonus.

My experience is limited to traditional stock trades and mutual funds.

You can post me at if you'd like to save bandwidth for those who don't need a primer.

Thanks in advance.


(Sun May 17 1998 19:25 - ID#342376)
Astrology predictions
Cyclist has a prediction of a long bottom for gold stocks extending into 99. While I follow Astrology, my thought is this- While I follow astrology and it's predictions, I believe all the year 2000 problems such as Y2K and millenial fever will have major impact on everything. The date of 2000, however, does not correlate with the motions of the planets. The calendar is man-made. Therefore, usual cycles, that can have a very good track record,may not prove to be as useful the closer we get to 2000. I believe the POG will rise much starting very soon and therefore, so will the gold stocks. Do I have a point? I'd be interested in the opinion of Cyclist and Mike Sheller on this matter.

(Sun May 17 1998 19:36 - ID#317193)
Children and PM's
God has not forsaken me. The child understands the need for gold and silver. She has refrained from irrational exuberance in the purchase of clothing in order that funds may still be available for PM's. There is no greater gift given to a parent than a child with an understanding of value and safety should the future not be as rosy as the current times.

She even refrains from mocking her father for the purchase of copious amount of toilet paper. She has, however, mentioned that on my tombstone the words GOLD, SILVER and TOILET PAPER may appear. Oh well, two out of three ain't bad.

Is there a futures market in TP? Just a thought.


(Sun May 17 1998 19:39 - ID#254112)
@mozel: Think long and hard on this: your 18:00 post
"You entered your agreement with The Bank voluntarily."

I know it doesn't help to say: "I didn't know this". But I know that in Germany as in many other European countries private contracts of any kind are illegal as long as they hurt basic rules of decency.

For instance: A banker cannot legally insist in a private contract that would permit him to cut out your liver and fry it and eat it, in case you cannot pay your interest on your mortgage and the banker happens to be a cannibal.

With organ transplants this example isn't completely out of the world!

Can I be forced into slavery in the USA based on the standard contract which I signed with my bank? ( I confess I didn't read the small printed stuff, but now I slwoly get scared. )

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun May 17 1998 19:42 - ID#342315)
Tyoung re children
That was an extremely excellent post. I hope all of the children could be so proficient. Thanx Charlie

(Sun May 17 1998 19:44 - ID#342376)
Add on to previous post...
I just read a post on the SI thread that says there is a 114 week cycle in the XAU and that puts a bottom somewhere in June 99. I believe that ALL these cyclical analysis, no matter what they derive from, won't hold much water as we get closer to 2000. There is a drastic change that is occuring. Instead of the present being a continuation of all summations of the time before it, as we approach 2000, it is the FUTURE date of 2000 that will exert influence in a time frame before it.

(Sun May 17 1998 19:44 - ID#288157)
When we deal with the "central bank intra-bank transfers, which in NewSpeak
are called "sales", consider this riveting, revealing statement
from BIS:
Footnote 1: For the first six years of its existence the Bank published its accounts in "Swiss francs at par". In September of 1936 the Swiss franc's gold parity was suspended but the

retained the gold parity. From that point on, the balance-sheet
unit was described as 'Swiss gold francs'..."

The capital reserves of central banks are gold. The exchange reserves
are a mix of currencies.

The footnote also offers this: "In 1939 US $1 was equivalent to approximately 3.06 Swiss Gold Francs." {:- (

(Sun May 17 1998 19:48 - ID#317193)
Tis true and one can make a point with humor rather than a cross word or claims of impending disaster. Yes?


(Sun May 17 1998 19:55 - ID#215208)
A Stretch?
EB - I know the new channel looks fine, but I liked the old one better. Dropping the channel bottom to include the previous and recent extreme lows made the channel wider than I felt comfortable with. Also, it meant that PL has never touched the channel bottom this year ( until just recently ) . Not good.

However, the main reason I am negative is the lack of response in PL to the move in PA. I don't understand this, and no one on Kitco has ventured a good explanation. Everyone knows what platinum SHOULD be doing. My focus is on what it IS doing. I spend a lot of time watching the movements of metals prices relative to each other. I don't understand what is happening, so I am staying away. You could be entirely correct, and of course I wish you mega-ducats of profits.

To answer your other question, despite my reservations, I covered my shorts and went long when PL hit my previous channel bottom, at 399. I then got stopped out when this fell through, and am reluctant to get back in at the moment. If PL heads for the moon, and I catch it at 50,000 feet instead of ground level, there is still 250,000 miles to go. I'll be happy with this! :- ) )

Bully Beef
(Sun May 17 1998 20:04 - ID#259282)


(Sun May 17 1998 20:10 - ID#426220)

Tokyo stocks are falling again. The Nikkei is dowm 114 points - just 130 away from flash point 15000 - when banks and insurance companies begin coming apart at the seams.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:14 - ID#238422)
Allen (USA) Statement from the Kremlin
Dear comrade Allen from USA.

When we did not yet produce transistors,
our first computer used bottle switch system,which
you descibed... but results of calculations were incorrect.
Our mathematicians were too drunk...and some bottles were
broken during lab experiments...

We hope you know what you are doing...

(Sun May 17 1998 20:15 - ID#340459)
Australia, Japan and NZ all down at open, Anyone has POG in Tokyo ??
All Ordinaries
Nikkei 225
New Zealand

(Sun May 17 1998 20:18 - ID#284255)
Mike K - have a look at these urls

(Sun May 17 1998 20:22 - ID#27341)
Yen 134.85
look out, the BOJ will start buying,

(Sun May 17 1998 20:26 - ID#433172)
If I remember correctly I signed an agreement with the stock broker that made a signature card look like plain talk. Part I really objected to stated anything they send by whatever means I agree in advance I've recieved.

Maybe it's not legal but people or banks or government must requite themselves decently or face the music, lets see how does it go? Oh yeah, bang, boom, thud.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:28 - ID#225273)
Insider Trading
To all:

I saw a few items of interest in this week's insider trading reports from the Northern Miner:

* Aurado Exploration ( AEO-T ) -- P.T. Conroy, director, sold 30,000 shares at 31-35cents each through Global Minerals; also bought 400,000 shares at 19-48cents each and sold 27,000 shares at 34-36cents each through Marinex, to hold 373,000 shares through Marinex and 170,000 through Global.

Aurado is the company that optioned the property next to Western Copper's property in Mexico. Maybe this guy knows there's nothing on his property of merit. And maybe not.

* Aurizon Mines ( ARZ-T ) -- I.S. Walton, director, bought 110,000 shares at 52-60cents each to hold 408,900 shares. Mary Walton bought 20,000 shares at 54-55cents each to hold 120,900 shares.

I know there are some Aurizon shareholders on Kitco. It's always good to see directors and their wives buying the stock.
* International Pursuit ( IPJ-T ) -- R.J.G. Boxer, director, sold 25,100 shares held in an RRSP at $3.01 each to hold 332,655 shares in the RRSP and 2,700 shares directly.

Since these shares are less than C$2.00 now, it looks like this director made a good sale for himself/herself.
* Romarco Minerals ( R-T ) -- Judith Robinson, director, sold 75,000 shares at $2.41-2.85 each to hold 35,000 shares. J.H.G. Van Bastelaar, director, sold 24,500 shares at $2.55-2.60 each to hold 10,500 shares.

This is supposedly a top-notch property in Nevada with a nice gold deposit on it. I wonder why insiders are selling their shares?

* Scorpion Minerals ( SCP-T ) -- Busquiz Pty., a company controlled by directors S.G. Bizzell and F.C. Quinn, bought 130,500 shares at 40-45cents each to hold 308,250 shares.

Scorpion was an Indonesia exploration company that has a wad of cash from financings two years ago. Evidently, someone knows this cash is close to being put to good use.

It's always fun to find out who's buying and selling. Hope you found this of some interest.

The Preacher

Mike K__A
(Sun May 17 1998 20:28 - ID#153283)
Thanks for the info.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:29 - ID#340459)
ctv shows POG 300.40
I hope it picks up..

(Sun May 17 1998 20:29 - ID#27341)
YEN 135.00
look out world

(Sun May 17 1998 20:30 - ID#426220)
Asian Intra-Day Charts In SLOOOW-MOTION

Watch Asian Contagion melt away stock values in the SLOOOW-MOTION of Intra-Day Charts.

Japan now open, but South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore begin trading at 10PM NY time. Indonesia??? Who knows when they will be able to quell the street rioting and foreign executives fleeing the country.

Remember it's necessary to delete the extra letter "b" in the URL:

(Sun May 17 1998 20:34 - ID#218420)
Kitco Barometer
Farvel's Kitco Optimism Barometer is reaching new heights. Goldbugs are scrambling out of their holes to expose their underbellies to the weekend sun, wiggling their feet in anticipatory joy. Here's hoping that they survive this time.

Bully Beef
(Sun May 17 1998 20:36 - ID#259282)
It seems to me that lately New Nork has been propping up the price of gold.
If the trend is your friend then we will be happy with the opening in New York. I need a little boost. I have friend that have been buying penny stocks on the Vancouver exchange. Some of them bought Pyng Tech. and it finally went up. Some bought Datawave and it finally went up. Now they are pushig one called TNT. I know at least ten working stiffs like me who have invested more that 10 thou on these Co's and have made money. Vancouver is the riskiest market in the world. These guys have somebody who tips them. Any Comments.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:42 - ID#27341)
YEN 135.08 major support breaking

(Sun May 17 1998 20:42 - ID#206358)
NIKKIE DOWN 155,YEN 135.15!
Both the currencies in JAPAN sliding down in 30 minutes!Futher the troubles in south East Asia.Since lastly,The region markets see nikkie as the head of train.
The Hot news about INDONESIA is that on 20/may/98 ( wednesday ) .There is the
stronger and bigger demostrations in whole JAKARTA.Even i read an article from the strong MUsLIM FUNDAMENTALIST PAPER did mentioned the actions.And the reginal radios you can hear the voices from INDONESIA
asking for help!The relative and friends calls after calls to look for the way to escape from the danger!
see yup...

(Sun May 17 1998 20:48 - ID#340459)
Gold 300.15, Darn..

(Sun May 17 1998 20:51 - ID#340459)
The Damn Dollar is Strong, Gold weak at open..
Far East still clinging to greenback.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:53 - ID#287114)
Bully Beef
Those fellows in Vancouver are so CROOKED they could stand behind a corkscrew and you wouldn't see them.
Thats why I like them, Like Willie Sutton said ..Thats were the money is.

(Sun May 17 1998 20:57 - ID#340459)
June Gold 301, down 90 cents..
Shouldnt it be going up, The shorts have successfully made a lousy opening for the week, Hope HK had some buyers, Australia just wagging it's tail..

(Sun May 17 1998 21:02 - ID#27341)
YEN 134.95 the BOJ is now buying
the free market at work???????

(Sun May 17 1998 21:16 - ID#284255)
Net chatter
Suharto may dump military chief
Defence Minister General Wiranto, 51, could be sidelined as Mr Suharto prepared to create an emergency military committee with sweeping powers, sources said last night.

Looks like Suharto is going to try to get tough, which will likely end in disaster.

Summit Leaders Fear Plunge of U.S. Stocks
International finance officials say their unease with soaring U.S. stock prices is shared by at least two key counterparts in the United States: Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. In public, Rubin and Greenspan have hinted only obliquely that they are worried about the market's precipitous climb -- partly, perhaps, because they worry that too much official agonizing might trigger the sudden sell-off they're hoping to avoid.

Officials from other Group of Eight countries -- in addition to the United States, they are Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Russia -- say that, in private communications, both men have stated their misgivings much more plainly.
Many of those who fear the consequences of such a sudden drop argue that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to take preemptive action.
I wonder just how much pressure is coming from the G-8 to raise interest rates?

Y2k Why the stock-market will collapse within days/week
It is very simple. Worldwide we are making one big mistake;
Stock-markets are at an all-time high SO Y2k cannot be a big problem
Because Y2k is not a problem stock-markets are be at an alltime high
It is as simple as that. Unfortunately Y2k is the biggest
challenge this planet ever faced.
So within a few hours/days/weeks it will be;
Y2k is a BIG problem so stock-markets will collapse,
When stock-markets collapse everybody realize Y2k is a big problem.
This weekend we have the G8-meeting. Tony Blair put Y2k
on the agenda BECAUSE IT IS A BIG PROBLEM. Blair & Clinton
need a collapse to get the awareness world-wide so they
will not try to minimize the problem anymore. And if they
do it will only be temporarily because they need time to
organize. Which means that they are only recently aware
of the problem.
It is that simple. So now you know when and why stock-markets.
will collapse. Since a few weeks they are realizing at the
whitehouse that they are in deep shit. And the only alternative
Clinton has is a collapse because he needs worldwide
Y2k-awareness to get the political support to take the
drastic steps that are necessary.
Get my point. Thank you.
Next days/weeks we will see an explosion
of articles like this. And they are way to optimistic at this moment!,4,22183,00.html

(Sun May 17 1998 21:17 - ID#252391)
Chinese markets up
Anybody else notice the 5-7% increase in the Chinese markets today. Do you suppose this means devaluation.???

(Sun May 17 1998 21:18 - ID#284255)
When Gates,Clinton and Gore died
When Gates,Clinton and Gore died..and had their hearing before the great unknown..Clinton presented his case and the great unknown may sit on my right..Gore presented his case and the great unknown said you may sit on my left..then it was Gates turn..the first thing Gates said was first,please get out of my chair.
Computing technology has created a "tulip" of a different kind. Everybody believes they need it, most masturbate with it, while the majority of citizens end up flipping burgers and cutting grass. Quality of life stinks for most workers in the US. CEOs and drug dealers are the ones most benefiting. What the Japanese model has brought to Japan, is now cast for the US. The longer it continues, the more difficult to fix. Jefferson will eventually have his revolution IMO. Euro vs $$

(Sun May 17 1998 21:20 - ID#409286)
TO skinny (Suspicious):
I agree, As I remember, Joe Kennedy ( the old man ) said," I got out of the sock market when I was taking a Taxi ride and the driver was giving me advice". I think we have a lot of taxi drivers in this market.

Does anybody know why CNBC is not giving the morning gold price from London and is now taking the XAU off the ticker. Sounds very strange????

(Sun May 17 1998 21:20 - ID#284255)
Net chatter
US might be the best financial market now, it has been losing in the
battle of world stability and other nations are now beginning to align themselves with other nations and US is losing control
ie no control of China..obviously no influence over India,Japan and
Russia getting closer,Canada supporting Cuba,etc

'India fears it has missed the Y2K boat, but turns to the Euro
There was a time when the world used to speak about Japan Inc.
But now India Inc is increasingly emerging, largely on the back
of its high programming skills, which are widely used by western
user companies and software vendors.. The message is so clear
that it prompted US president Bill Clinton to comment to the
Indian Prime Minister IK Gujral : "After all, you Indians own half
of Silicon Valley."

(Sun May 17 1998 21:21 - ID#27341)
The Chinese may like gold also today, HK
devaluation jitters again??

(Sun May 17 1998 21:23 - ID#340459)
June 300.30, Down buck sixty..I hope that HK has better sense than Tokyo or Sydney
The Mining Co's are equally to blame as CB's. They want lower Gold so that they can load up cheaply when their futures expire.

(Sun May 17 1998 21:26 - ID#286279)
Fred, EJ

(Sun May 17 1998 21:29 - ID#340459)
POG 299.90, The Darn Shorts winning..
C'mon Gold, show some balls, you impotent bull..

(Sun May 17 1998 21:32 - ID#252150)
Vronsky@Since you did'nt reply to my18:36 query as to whether or not the Sun. Times
article om SA was just fear mongering, I suppose we can assume that everything is just hunky-dory--not.

(Sun May 17 1998 21:37 - ID#340459)
Gold is psychological play, the shorts know how to play it better than longs and goldbugs
The Deman & supply stats, Charts, waves, world upheaval seem to mean nothing. Only derivatives ruling this market.

(Sun May 17 1998 21:40 - ID#252391)
Man it's a struggle
for gold to hold above $300. What does it take. It just looks like there is aggresive selling on any rally. Four dollar pop on Friday got nailed; today we're down again already. Its obvious weak stock markets don't help gold, weaker yen doesn't help gold, chaos in Indonesia doesn't help gold. I think our only hope is that the selling is CB related and that as stated in an earlier post it will end soon. Otherwise, any projection abouthe price of gold going over $318 is pure pipe dreaming.

My thought is that the markets are in a deflationary mode that will see the price of these assets fall another 25%

(Sun May 17 1998 21:46 - ID#27341)
Jims, what is going on in the world is deflationery.
financial instability will do it for gold.

(Sun May 17 1998 21:48 - ID#340459)
@jims, Gold is cornered by forces that benefit from low prices. The US Dollar seems to be a cure for
all monetary ills, Gold should be going up not down right now by ANY F&*KING LOGIC, still it goes down. DOW and Dollar is what the World is running after rather than tangible goods. All the Asia, Australia, Europe and rest of the World is being screwed by US dollar, yet they realize NOT..

(Sun May 17 1998 21:49 - ID#412286)
Fasr Forward 2005 adain
President Gore and VP Patrick Kennedy lauded by House Majority Leader David Bonior and Senate Majority Leader Paul Wellstone announced new broad based social programs which will solidify medicare and social security because of the efforts of President Clinton who in his third term spear headed the drive for a two tier currency system ( internal and commercial ) to make sure the country never goes through anything like the mutual fund debacle of the late 90's. Unlike the period prior to the crash citizens are now very distrustful of Wall St and private business requests for capital. Faith is now put in the govt to protect citizens from corporatist overeaching. Public service is now honored again. My how a crash changes perceptions the Reagan inspired era is dead. Reporting from Washington.....

In other news Reagan National Airport was renamed FDR Airport the reason officials stated....

(Sun May 17 1998 21:50 - ID#288399)
Ray/XAU Index/CNBC
Ray, where did you see/hear/read that CNBC is taking the XAU index away?

(Sun May 17 1998 21:51 - ID#317193)
Fire and insurance
I own a house in the woods. I have fire insurance. There is a forest fire raging. I think I should cancel my fire insurance. NOT


(Sun May 17 1998 21:58 - ID#340459)
I was in Las Vegas last week, the place was swarming with Japanese, aping the Yanks all the way.
China is like the 'Real Quiet', winning, low profile, self sustaining and wise not to borrow from West that has been a death trap for Indonesia, Thailand etc, where the outside investors pull their finances out faster than pentium II at the hint of trouble. China will RULE within 50 years.

Check out Wal-Mart or any retail, Most goods are Chinese. Even the Canadian Flag flying over most Govt buildings are "Made in China".

Their model seem to be working much better that Russia, that is ruled by Mafia and the Pimps..

If India becomes too arrogant about their Nukes, China will roast them real quiet...

(Sun May 17 1998 21:59 - ID#340459)
Spot 300.00
HK pick up the Ball and Run..

(Sun May 17 1998 21:59 - ID#247309)
22.00 - Gold - GCAM @ $300.70A, down $1,20;
Platinum - PLAN down $5.90 @ $399B; SP500 down 300 @ 110940; DOW down 34 @ 9075 @ 9075B - Source - CQG

(Sun May 17 1998 22:00 - ID#263133)
Can anyone give an update on the Gold, Palladium, and Platinum overseas activity tonite. Apparently Kitco people don't come in til the morning as this info. seems to historically be lacking on Sunday nites.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:03 - ID#226285)
Gold Predictions
I am knew to the commodoties market. Based on advice and strong convictions from a friend, I invested in Dec 330 gold @ $420 per option. Please respond with best and worst case sinarios

(Sun May 17 1998 22:04 - ID#226285)
Gold Predictions
I am knew to the commodoties market. Based on advice and strong convictions from a friend, I invested in Dec 330 gold @ $420 per option. Please respond with best and worst case sinarios

(Sun May 17 1998 22:04 - ID#22956)
Ya' sound ( WAY ) long gold to me?? Could I be wrong? Take two Platinum contracts and call me in the'll feel better. w/w

gearingforcountdown.....ohmy ( . )

(Sun May 17 1998 22:09 - ID#369217)
Exploration Mirandor (MIQ on Montreal Stock Exchange)
After going to the Exploration Mirandor booth at the recent mining exploration conference in Montreal two weeks ago, I learned that Kinross Gold Corporation entered into a joint venture agreement with MIQ to earn 60% interest in the Railroad Property by spending $17 million CDN ( $12 million US ) . MIQ has hit 0.63oz/t gold and 0.3% copper with up to 15% copper in other holes. Drilling restates June 1998. Thus Kinross Gold is spending $0.85 CDN/share MIQ. Why is MIQ listed for only $0.35 CDN on the Montreal Stock Exchange? Is MIQ acquiring other projects in Carlin Trend or Battle Mountain Trend of Nevada?

(Sun May 17 1998 22:09 - ID#340459)
Hang Seng down 169 points. Nikkei Down, Australia & NZ down, Gold Down
Oil & Silver & Gas & Corn & Soya all DOWN, DOWN like a Dog


(Sun May 17 1998 22:12 - ID#409286)
To Shlomo (Ray/XAU Index/CNBC)
Someone was saying at Kitco last Friday that CNBC was taking the XAU ticker off. About two weeks before that someone from Kitco ( I'm not sure if was not someone from the gold stock message boards ) was complaining he was not getting the gold report from CNBC in the moring. I started to pay attention to the morning report at 5:30 and sure enough no gold update from London. No big deal to me as I get my information from the net, BUT SOMETHING IS GOING ON.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:12 - ID#340459)
@EB, I dont know squat about futures contracts, With my Luck I will
lose there as well....

(Sun May 17 1998 22:13 - ID#227290)
PooBoy & Options

I imagine you'll come out all right. I'm very confident we'll see a retest of the Oct '97 high this year, hopefully very soon. And that figure is at $338.50.

Right now, gold has trend line support around $296 for this week. There's a small gap around $300.00 that should be filled in New York early this week. Then I'm looking for a new high for the year.

Whether or not the POG will make it as high as $330, I don't know. But if I understand options correctly, then as the POG nears $330, your option should grow in value.

Remember, the advocates of paper investments must win every time. We just have to win one time!

Gold, it's the best money that paper can buy!

The Preacher

(Sun May 17 1998 22:13 - ID#412286)
Your option investments betting on a gold rise is a good way to keep your handla as a name.Believe ME I KNOW!!!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:15 - ID#340459)
India should be feeding the Millions of poor insead of spending Billions on Nukes
Others will be forced to keep up with this cursed technology..

(Sun May 17 1998 22:16 - ID#412286)
We are interested in gold others arent. When something basically never really move why should it be reported. BTW I do not believe they are removing the XAU get real!@!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:17 - ID#57232)
Thanks for the Veneroso post
Ray: That may sound bad -- several hundred tonnes of gold yet to be sold ( loaned ) . However it is not as bad as it sounds. The price of gold is far from equilibrium, so the CB's must continually sell or loan gold to maintain the low price. All they need to do is stop selling, and it will go up all on its own. It would be nice if we had a gold expert who could tell us how many ounces of gold the CB's must sell ( loan ) per month to keep a constant price. My guess is the shortfall between production an consumption at the current gold price would be a reasonable estimate, but it is more complicated than that.

I sympathize with you that we do not know when the selling ( lending ) will stop, but probably no more than a few more months. My liquid assets are currently 30% invested in gold ( as of this last Friday ) , so I am a little nervous myself.

The equilibrium price of gold in my conservative calculation is about $600/oz based only on past inflation. F Veneroso said $650/oz, and then he dropped it a bit for the reduced demand in SEAsia.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:18 - ID#215208)
330 Options
PooBoy - I hold a bundle of Dec '98 330's, buying on every dip. Now I'm picking up Feb. '99 330's. I hold out for $350 and buy when it hits that level. I think we are going to see another dip in POG and will be able to pick up even later options at this price soon. I passed up a chance to sell mine at $600. In hind-sight this was a mistake, but I am quite comfortable holding them.

Downside - Zero, of course. But I think it is highly unlikely you won't have a chance to get out at least even.

Upside - Easily 3-5x. I'll probably do some trading with at least half of these, maybe all. There is a chance I'll get caught flat, but its unlikely.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:19 - ID#227290)
Investor & MIQ
Your perplexion is reasonable. But this is the state of the exploration mining sector right now. MIQ's market cap is ludicrous.

In the background of the maanagement team sits one Michael David. He had a big problem with his last venture, Barexor Minerals. Barexor has been halted for well over a year. The market might be discounting MIQ some because of David.

But with Kinross in there in such a big way, I think things will be okay.
And one amazing facet of this KGC-MIQ deal is that it was signed last December, when the entire gold market was coming unglued.. KGC has much faith in MIQ's projects in Nevada.

The Preacher

(Sun May 17 1998 22:19 - ID#412286)
A comin so attack the metals. Its like ABC!!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:19 - ID#252391)
Pooboy's gold and the CNBC XAU
CNBC seemed to have lost the XAU during the day on Friday. It went down pretty soon after the open but was back up at the close. Can not imagine they would drop it all together unless its a "conspiracy"

PooBoy - so you're new to commodities buying options. The key thing from my experinece is to keep it simple, never spread a loss or a gain and never risk more than 1/7th of your capital on any one trade. -That's p[robably too much, 1/10th is probably alot better. So if you bought one 330 Dec call at $430, you are in pretty good shape assuming you have about $4500 in the account. The greatest probability is that you will lose you $430 because gold won't get over $330. Then you'll try again and again. Maybe by the time you've gone through your alotted capitol you'll get a winner or two that will restock your pocket for more. In the long run, like going to a casino you'll loose unless you are a very good timer. Actaully, $430 for a Dec $330 call seems pretty cheap to me. At $335 you'll be in the money. If we get a run to $385 ypou'll have doubled my hypothetical $4500 acount for you. Not bad but by then I suspect with the jubilation you'll feel having made such easy money you'll have entered a couple other trades that trim those gains. Oh well, isn;t the first $3000 of trading losses tax deductable. Do think your $430 for a $330 Dec call is pretty good. But I think I'll check that out and see if Dec is so trading.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:24 - ID#288399)
Ray/XAU Index question

Ray, a couple of times recently, when all stock indexes were down across the board, only the XAU would be up. There may be novice investors looking at the ticker and saying to themselves, "Gee. What's XAU -- it's the only thing going up". And, you know, that would not be a good thing going forward in a bear market....we couldn't have the dipsters turning to gold, could we? CNBC has also recently, especially on Squawk Box, gotten particularly silly, with toy monkeys and silly disco music. To me, it's just another sign of an equities top and/or an attempt to disarm the public that watching investments is just "fun", a "light" business, nothing to be concerned about. Like sheep to the slaughter, Disney World meets Barron's, bread and circuses. Enough. I can't get it into words.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:28 - ID#412286)
Been in the GOLD GAME
7 years. The conspiracy stuff is just something to make us feel better for being wrong. If you KNOW there is an anti-gold conspiracy than WHY BUY GOLD...HELLO!! If there is not then we are just plain wrong on the true fundamentals or should stay in and quit belly achin' about CBs. Truth is that there aint enuf investment damand. Ifin there was then the CB sales sh*t wouldnt mean squatola. LETS GET REAL!!! NO PHD REQUIRED ON THIS ONE!!!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:30 - ID#287312)
Poorboy: Options
My prefrence on options is DJIA put options for Dec. 2000. A great bet unless you believe the Dow will survive Y2K unscathed. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:31 - ID#340459)
@ROR, You are Right...
All the talk about $30,000 Gold is crazy to say the least

(Sun May 17 1998 22:35 - ID#368244)
@ Pooboy

You can deduct up to $3000 per calander year off your taxes. Hope this makes you feel better. I'm sitting on 100 Oct. 310 's and I don't feel good about them at all.

You can deduct losses against other stock gains. GOOD LUCK!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:36 - ID#409286)
I only asked a question about the AXU being taken CNBC?
I went back and looked at Fridays messages and this is what I found. As I reread it, I don't think it's any big deal. But If we don't see the XAU for a few days then it may be.

Date: Fri May 15 1998 11:40
jims ( PD & PT ) ID#252391:
Copyright  1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedare about to converge in price - only ten dollars seperating them in the cash market. Noticed the Russian market at new 52 week lows, wonder if the Yahoo range is really correct. Notice too that CNBC has dropped the XAU. Hopefully its only a problem with their index calculator. I noticed earliy on in the day that it suddenly went nuts, maybe they pulled it then. OR its a conspiracy to keep investors in the dark.Given the unusual strenght in the XAU today I'm leaning on the conspiracy side.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:38 - ID#412286)
I am beginnig to think talk of 400 gold is crazy. But then I am usually wrong. But is this really true or just a manifestation of the "Manchurian candidate" syndrome developing from following the PMS too closely/ One could call it A type of Financial Dementia with varying degrees of gravity. I know OLD GOLD at least understands. What is the cure? OR is it neede as the mad man's world is soon to become reality?

(Sun May 17 1998 22:38 - ID#252391)
To Pooboy & my thanks too to Ray and Veneroso's comments
which are long term encouraging and give some reason to gold inability to rise.

I checked out those Dec 330 calls - last rade or settlement Frdiay was at $350 - sorry to report. The 310's were at $900. Both seem to be pretty reasonable. 181 days to expiration!! The way I am positioning myself with certain precious metal stocks I'd have to say your first venture will pay off. Given the commision expense of options and their high inherant risk trading them very much can really add the costs. Hold you $330 Decs - they should pay off - its what you do after that that'll determine your success or failure, of course.

Like to see that PD up over $400 - the only market that can sustain a rally. Understand that Monday the NYMEX is removing all limits to futures trading. I suspect when the September catchs up to the June we'll see a top - probably at $400.

Stay tuned.

I also noticed the foolishness recently on CNBC. That entire crew has alot vested in seeing the market rally or stay higher. If a bear ever ensues ( and the metals are rising ) it will really be fun to watch.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:40 - ID#226287)
I want to THANK all of you wo responded and made my first posting such a positive experience. Yes, that's right. I am no longer a virgin to the kitco chat-group ( No offense Mr. Preacher )

(Sun May 17 1998 22:42 - ID#409286)
TO Shlomo:
Couldn't agree with you more!!!

(Sun May 17 1998 22:42 - ID#215208)
Weirdest thing. PA goes up again, PL goes down again.

As of Friday - Gold $330 Options:

Dec 98 - $350

Feb 99 - $420

Apr 99 - $530

Jun 99 - $640

(Sun May 17 1998 22:43 - ID#176253)
ROR. Thanks for the plain common sense.
Many developments that might reasonably have been expected to ignite investment demand, but that failed to do so, have occurred during the last few years. The only possibility remaining is devaluation of the dollar. But how will that happen?

(Sun May 17 1998 22:48 - ID#252391)
Didn't think I would start a controversay
when last Friday I noticed that the XAU was off the CNBC coverage.. First time I've been quoted.

Not enough investment demand is exactly what's wrong with the gold market. Wish there was a way of determining how that might change and in what degree.

More I think about it, those $330 Decs at, now, $350 look pretty good. If gold can't rally 10% in six months I've wasted alot of time and money and OPPORTUNITY , toooooooo.

Looks like who ever coming in at night on Sunday to get Kitco jump started has arrived. Maybe soon they'll straighten out the erroneous silver quote.

(Sun May 17 1998 22:58 - ID#22956)
DJ will be a tight channel for a couple of days....... ( maybe ) ...the shorts will soon say UNCLE....... watch the Pennant form

(Sun May 17 1998 22:59 - ID#284255)
Australia's Howard says dollar is not Asia proxy
Indonesia tension, G8 silence weigh on early Asia
Indonesia to march again as Suharto waits

(Sun May 17 1998 23:03 - ID#426265)
the gap
The reason for the price of gold to go down is a normal correction. It surprises me that it happens so fast because the gap occured from thursday to friday. It seems gold is in a hurry to go up an wont waist time with the gap being in existance.

(Sun May 17 1998 23:06 - ID#215208)
PL Breakout
EB - I'll wait for the breakout. Would you consider $410 safe or should I set the bar a tad higher.

(Sun May 17 1998 23:07 - ID#340459)
@ROR, The Mining Companies hedging activities leave much to be desired
It has provided a consistently lower direction as they believe that their produce will fetch lower prices in the future.

Till US Dollar goes down in value, it will be tough to counter the Shorts. Euro backing may lend some credibility to Gold but atleast till y2k chaos, Dollar stands in the way of higher Gold prices. People on Kitco are sometimes jubiliant about Asian Markets tanking without realizing that the Gold BUYER'S ARE ASIANS and dilution of their wealth DOES NOT HELP GOLD. Asia's economic well being MEANS HIGHER POG.


(Sun May 17 1998 23:11 - ID#255217)
@ jims
WHAT erronious silver quote? I wish there were. I get so tired of going on the internet only to find silver down AGAIN, as well as gold most of the time. It's getting to be what I expect. I hate to say it, but silver may be headed for $5 the way it's behaving. I wouldn't have said that a week ago. And gold MIGHT well go back to $280. I just don't see any strength in either one. And we are nearing the summer doldrums. Who will save us nooooowwwwww?

(Sun May 17 1998 23:18 - ID#27341)
five bus loads of democracy supporters are at the parliment at this moment, supported along the way by sections of the marines, times up for Suharto

The Hatt
(Sun May 17 1998 23:20 - ID#294232)
Aussies have sold their gold and continue to hammer gold at every opp!
It would not surprise me to find out those idiots in Australia are still blasting out gold. If so they deserve to suffer further currency trashing.

The Hatt
(Sun May 17 1998 23:27 - ID#294232)
Howard should level with the public!!!!!!!!
The reason their dollar is so weak has more to do with their gold position than Asia. Howard sold his country out and is now back pedaling blaming all but himself for their problems. The paper is about to start burning in Australia and Canada is not far behind.

(Sun May 17 1998 23:28 - ID#27341)
The Hat
Aussies are not selling GOLD, the stupid government did.

(Sun May 17 1998 23:32 - ID#206358)
More indonesia not to missed!
This the site which i discovered recently:!Aout the "HUAREN" MEANS...CHINESE!A page about overseaa chinese.look up for the chat& news letters from indonesia.The citizen cried for help.....please help them and help your self too!

Tense and worried!

The Hatt
(Sun May 17 1998 23:34 - ID#294232)
Not selling gold?
Give your head a shake, over the last five months gold has regularly opened DOWN in the land down under! Producer selling out of Australia is the norm and quite frankly I personally expect that within the next six months Australia will be economically brought to its knees!

(Sun May 17 1998 23:37 - ID#317193)
PM's down after the big Boys meet.. and your surprised?
Think about it for a minute!


(Sun May 17 1998 23:41 - ID#27341)
The Hatt

(Sun May 17 1998 23:42 - ID#256326)
[down&under bottom line]
down to the base court where kings grow base........

(Sun May 17 1998 23:52 - ID#284255)
Australia's Howard says dollar is not Asia proxy
``I think some poorly informed, economically illiterate money market people on the other side of the world may make that judgment,''
``They may say 'Oh well, all Asia, and Australia is part of Asia geographically, has got a problem',''
``...don't assume that because many Asian economies are in trouble that the Australian economy is in trouble, because it is not, and our position is completely different,''
This guy should learn about what is going on.
Perhaps he should look in a mirror before making these stupid comments.
Preening himself like a peacock.
Claiming he is aware and knowledgable.
Politicians - - sheeeesh