You have Clinton, we have Howard, what hope have we got!

CB's Second Millenium Going out of business sale. Physical Gold as low as U.S.$300 per ounce! Prices good while supplies last. Hurry, sale ends soon. ( Y2K )

Could you please repost that Chinese link.
I could not get it to work.

Thanks

I don't know a single person who is joyful that the asian markets are
tanking. Maybe a few people are saying "See, I told you those markets
would tank," but, no, joyful is innacurate.

I know that the more people worldwide who are able to afford
( and desire ) precious metals/shares, the stronger the prices
will be. And precious metals action is definitely secondary to
quality/joy in life.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
Indonesia -3.04%
Thailand -2.38%
Singapore -2.09%
Sri Lanka -1.68%
Malaysia -1.41%
Hong Kong -1.17%
Australia -1.14%

All slowly coming off this afternoon.

Rumors,
"Employees selling stock and leaving."
"Gates selling stock."

Who then has been supporting the stock, and how long can they continue?

Tomorrow, may be judgement day for MSFT stock ......and the Nasdaq.

HighRise

gold to support the Nikkei, it's up right now. Guys I've been into gold a long, long, long, long , time ( boy have I lost money! ) but should the economy crack it won't be pretty for anyone. We will pick up the pieces and make the best of it , but not tonight.

60% of Aussie exports go to Asia, keep talking??????

Australia's problem is its trade deficit, particularly with SE Asia, and unlike the US, whose stocks and govt bonds are being bought by Asians for their "perceived safety", Australia has the unfortunate effects of Once Wealthier Asians selling off properties and investments in Australia in order to try to raise cash.

Australia's trade deficit must be hitting its reserves, and when there isn't any gold as reserves, people aren't going to be beating down the door to a baseless fiat currency.

I have alluded in the past, that possibly central banks are selling off gold ( to who knows who? at what price? ) because they know the end-game is near, and they don't want to squander the precious yellow fighting a war that was lost before it was started.

Or else, it is simple desperation and they belittle gold as a diversion.

No offense to our Aussie friends, but John Howard's testimony is hardly credible, and BTW, he sure looks like crap in a suit.

The broker's stipulation that you agree in advance that you have received anything they have sent stinks; however, there have probably been a lot of people whose attorneys have disputed that a margin call notice was sent out or a prospectus or the like. So, I can see a reason for the stipulation as it avoids all clients taking on the overhead of certified return receipt mail for every communication. It seems nevertheless overbroad. But, if you were a broker who had been burned by a client who claimed never to have received a margin call notice, you might not agree.

Do not confuse an agreement with a brokerage business with an agreement with an institution having independent international standing, The Bank.
It's more like you made a private agreement with the Crown or The People's Republic of China which is enforceable in your home country by your home country's courts.

CRAP IS RIGHT

ABC radio, run on banks, customers limited to $60 withdrawals,

Investor: Just read your post of 22:09 5/17 re Exploration Mirandor and Railroad property. I have some thoughts. You still around this evening?

``People think Bill Gates is rough,'' he said. ``But he's a powder puff compared with Rockefeller.''
Ron Chernow, author of ``Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller Sr.''

He cut secret rebate deals with railroads that shipped his oil and bought up entire valleys to block the paths of rival pipelines. Standard Oil bribed lawmakers and squeezed banks to stop lending money to competitors.

He kept oil prices high enough to guarantee healthy profits, but not high enough to make potential rivals think it was worthwhile to challenge his 90 percent control of the business. His obsession with market share has made him an idol to Japanese business leaders.
By Ian Simpson
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980517/rockefelle_1.html

And his Family is still doing it today.
My guess is they will own MSFT before this is over....of course there is the question, Who would want the junk?

Therefore; it is interesting to note that the Justice Dept. Lead guy is a Clinton man, and that at a major High Tech Conference/Party at the White House last year MSFT was noticeably missing. Apple, Oracle, IBM, Motorola and others where there; and, they are all business partners.

The Clintons recently stayed at Steve Jobs home for the visit with Chelsea.

It is also interesting to note that Motorola is partners with China on the Missile/Satellite Technology Scandal.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the GE, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, etc. relationships.

Gold, Oil, and Technology the war is on.

HighRise

Toward An Islamic Gold Standard
By forming an International Islamic Central Bank and issuing its own
gold-backed currency notes the Islamic world could establish the
most stable money system on earth, but would it be credible? Yes.
The enormous mass of the Muslim nations--10,450,000 square
miles, a 1 billion member population, the combined Gross National
Product of all of the Muslim nations and the blessing of having much
of the world's oil supply running beneath its feet--would give the
Islamic gold backed-currency all the credibility it would need.

Economist Jude Wanniski of Polyconomics, Inc., believes that one industry where the Muslim world would immediately become a world leader would be the high-tech international finance industry. Describing the pivotal role that Muslim nations would obtain in this field, he said, "If ( the Islamic economic bloc ) went on a gold standard and it had the only currency in the world that was guaranteed in gold, and the Islamic nations kept their currency values fixed in terms of gold, while the rest of the world's currencies were becoming less valuable in terms of gold, the ( Islamic Economic bloc ) would get more business in banking. Imagine
Belgium is going to send butter to Brazil and Brazil is going to send coffee to Belgium. The Brazilians and Belgians will be drawing their contracts up in the Islamic currency, so the banks in the Islamic community would get bigger and bigger and bigger and they would be able to get a percentage of the contract between the Belgians and the Brazilians as payment for serving as financial intermediaries.
Cedric Muhammad

The BOJ seems to holding the nikkei above 15.000 succesfully for now, but if the Dow gos ?????

and sinking

There is no Islamic world.

They hate each other more than they hate us.

You will see no cooperation among those folks.

Huh uh

Does anybody know anything about a VSE stock called Claimstaker Resourses. A buddy recommends it as a buy. I have followed it's trading over the last week and have done some research. Apparently a company from Japan has bought part of one of their properties. I guess the question I am asking is weather this should make this a buy or not. With the trouble the Japenese are having it gives you pause.

I would not be surprised to learn that bank agreements in all countries which are members of the IMF and World Bank carry the stipulation either on the agreement or in Statute that the account holder agrees to abide by all the rules and regulations of The Bank.

The Bank is an independent international institution somewhat like The Crown. Would you enter into an agreement with the Crown to abide by all its rules and regulations ?

It is in difficult times that one would discover just how much was required of one by the rules and regulations of The Bank. But, it seems obvious that you are potentially foregoing for any liability to the Bank the protection afforded you by your country's bankruptcy law. And your wife and heirs could be indentured to work off any debt you had to The Bank at death as well. It seems to me assessments against your account could be made by The Bank's rules and regulations. These assessments could be based on agreements entered into between The Bank and your government. About the only protection for an account holder in this agreement are the prohibitions against contracts against public policy. That would probably prohibit barbaric rules such as body parts for debt, but would not prohibit a rule to quarter soldiers when directed by your government.

I think it should be obvious the worldwide government offensive on cash transactions is designed to drive everyone into the snares of The Bank. Perhaps we have been saying Gold is Freedom, Paper is Slavery without fully understanding the words.

BOJ will spend a fortune again this mth

This is THE moveable feast! The particular each other ( s )  and the specific us changes, but not the hate...history is littered with
the mangled bodies...and do you suppose the dislike is any deeper
than say the enmity between English and French?
No--we seem to be a exceedingly quarrelsome species...

However, there are moments in time when the ancient adage
the enemy of my enemy is my friend blossoms in the arid dessert of human conflict...this is one of those times.

Goodnight all.

For James
The Hard Livings and the Mongrels etc have been
a tradition on the Cape Flats for somewhere between
20 and 80 years.
The ANC's dislike of them runs parallel to JFK's
dislike of the Mafia. It was ORGANIZED crime. A power
stucture in competition to the Government's protection
racket. DISorganized crime is OK but not ORGANIZED
crime. The ANC sees the colored run very anti Black gangs
of the Flats as a threat to THEM. Mbeki is trying to
build a case for a crackdown on them.
The Cape is safe .. but best not to dwell in the
Flats. Thats pretty easy .. I've lived here for 10
years .. Ive never had occasion to go to the Cape Flats.
The point about them supporting Bantu Holomisa is more
interesting. Normally they would support the National
Party.
The Press loves RSA.. how could they sell papers
without it.
I had a gardener once that was in the Hard Livings.
And a murderer painted the wall around my house.
Maybe I should have spent more time in the Foreign
Legion.

NSDQ100 JUN98 1249.50 -415

MSFT tomorrow????

HighRise

Sharefin,
Here you are: http://www.huaren.org...
After my lunch,the rupiahs hit 13000...seem the markets will crash in the second session.
regds,
JIN

"The Bank" will meet the same resistance as the Klintonistas. We will go underground with an economy based on GOLD or rifle cartridges. Again city-bred folk may feel central authority ( world or otherwise ) can conquer us. Conquer the cities? I was wrong earlier. Inner city people will likely be more savage than mountain folk in the Appalachians, Ozarks, and Rockies. Push us too far and we will revolt! No force can conquer America short of turning it into a nuclear wasteland. To turn a cliche around...
We are Americans! You will be assimilated! Conquering us is futile!

I am not so sure that we can predict what will come of all this.

Who would have thought a year ago of what would befall Asia.
Today there is a $60 limit to access one's own money.

The world is changing fast
And many can not yet see this.

Today our systems are normal,
Life is good.

Was it not like this before in Asia?

Society has a date with Y2k that is immovable.
We are heading there fast.
And many experts are predicting much change.

There is also a looming financial breakdown.

Many people think that because today is good
Tomorrow will be the same...

This will not be so.

Rest assured of that.

Within two years this globe of ours
Will run under different rules.

Of that we can be certain.

How these changes come about no one knows.
Of what will change, no one knows.
But change will come.

We will all be there to witness this.
Some more securely than others.

James ..
has been running articles about how
awful RSA is since well before the
First Boer WAR. The reason was to keep
all the English from finding out how
nice it was here and discourage them
from leaving the UK.
Articles like the one you mentioned
have appeared in the press for ages
and will continue to do so.
Unless you have a high tolerance
for this kind of crud you should
NEVER buy RSA stocks .. BUY NA
stocks .. you will probably lose most
of your money BUT you will FEEL secure.
.. and that's important.. and when you
do lose money .. you'll have company..
and that helps too.

Want to go to the track? When I quit betting on the nags, er the sport of kings, I was actually ahead! Not much ahead but it was hell of a lot of fun. In those days Shoe still turned in a good days work & Lafitte Pincay was hot.

I get this error when I load that url.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
500 Server Error
The hard cpu limit for this user has been reached
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I don't know what this means but I can't get the url to work.

Thanks

For myself, I will have no agreement with The Bank. I will be able to say "I am not one of yours."

for squirrel
American has already been conquered
and occupied by Washington DC... and
such a little country..

Sam..
was in Australia.. His name was
Kingston Town .. I never saw such
accelleration .. a really good horse
and a champ.. I hope he's still alive
and well.

...in today's NY Post says that AG will raise rates but it will not be a significant rise.
http://nypostonline.com/business/1824.htm

Some people say that the market sets the rates, not the Fed. If so maybe that is why I have seen so much spin in the last week that the Fed won't raise, doesn't need to, the economy's fine, Asia couldn't handle it, etc.

You see if they convince enough simpletons to buy or hold onto their US Treasuries, then rates would stay subdued, and Uncle Alan wouldn't be obliged to raise them.

I see a  point rise on Tuesday.

Sharefin,
Don't know what happen...Down too!
Let's see later!Show me your e mail address!I'll send you some good one from here!Yes,?The markets "Red"...!
Need your wisdom about this:
1 ) The fomc meeting!What do you see about interest rate?
2 ) The Gold direction?

see you..rgds.
JIN ( cssam@pl.jaring.my )

MACROCRASH,98

Same Problem, Error 500 with URL

HighRise

sharefin@cairns.net.au

Thanks again

The one time I was able to get some inside information from an owner, the owner said, "Miss Goldbrick is ready to win" a maiden but win she did at ~5-1 ( name changed to "stay" on topic ) .

A debt upon which usury is practiced must be continually fed. It is a ravening maw that is never filled. Look into the causes of modern war and you will find the worship of Bael, the worship of the magic of compound interest.

The Course of Usury deceives the reasoning mind. In the beginning you might have ten farmers and one worshipper of Baal. Each of the ten borrows ten to return eleven. Nine of the ten will be more prosperous and only the tenth will enter slavery. His misfortune can be blamed on his sloth or his ill luck. The remainder will credit their hard work and clever management. When five are in slavery and five are still borrowing and expanding, those five will be even yet more prosperous. And it is this apparent rise in prosperity by which the course of usury deceives the reasoning mind.

looks like the BOJ HAS SPENT THIER 10 BIL TODAY.

When he is back of the pack coming around the last turn and starts sprinting into the stretch, passing, passing, passing, gaining on Platinum Rocket, photo, KT by a nose, PR place, Ol Gumshoes show. What a rus-, er thrill!

Down the way where the nights are gay and the sun shines daily....

The US does the same. It portrays "South of the Border" as being uncivilized, dangerous, and mired in poverty for the same reason you cited. It doesn't want its sheeple fleeing to greener pastures.

More and more retirees are moving to places like Mexico and Costa Rica because they can live in luxury for less money than what they would pay for a mediocre lifestyle in the States.

Just like the poor over-taxed Roman, people are fleeing the US, and just like ancient Rome, Amerika expects those who leave to continue to pay taxes, even those who renounce nationality and all ties to the Socialist State called Amerika.

Got Gold?

Have some things to say to several of you:-
1 ) Don't watch the markets so closely. A jiggle here a jiggle there, does
not a trend make. Silver is having a normal correction after a long and
strong up move. Be patient and think and act long term ( Years ) !
2 ) Downunder and Sharefin- please look at a long term chart of Dow
from 1929 to 1940, and NIKKEI from 1989 'till present, and see if you
see any similarities. Granted the extent of the correction in the Nikkei
isn't as extreme, but the pattern do look similar no? What I said several
times is this is a great level to buy the NIKKEI, and a short, less than
10% sell/stop for protection. I think all of the Japanese problems have
been figured into the 8 year correction. The next leg maybe up while many
ot the others may continue "tanking".
3 ) Midas- I concur that the US$ is the one to watch for when PMs start
moving, and I've been doing just that. Keep the faith a little longer
and I believe you will see other currencies, the stronger ones, rise
against the $. Check the basing actions in some longer term charts of
other currencies.
4 ) Jims-"Keep the faith" man, there has been a good deal of accumulation
of PMs in the last 6 months ( Buffet and Soros, others too ) look at long
term charts of gold stocks and you'll see larger than normal volume over
this period. Many of the big guns, now invested in the US markets, when
they start getting out, and see further confirmation of the trend of the
PMs will start buying heavily. When that happens, you usually see a
short term correction. Watch for large volume days, that's usually a
good indicator of what's happening.

Made my predictions based on my work on Friday, and see no reason to
change. Wait for tomorrow and the rest of this week, and I believe you
will be pleasantly surprised.

On the other hand........ha.

There is America, then there is the United States Government.
Yes the USG may have conquered many who live in the United States. But it has not conquered "Americans". Americans can not be conquered! When one surrenders in body and spirit, then one is no longer an "American".

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image348.gif
Here's the chart.
I would not be a buyer of the Nikkei.
Till at least after Y2k.
They have major problems coming.
Financially, economically and electronically.

The rest of the world will not know of the outcome till after the event.
This horse may well end up with a broken leg.

I'd prefer PM's before the Nikkei - personally.

Ahm gonna have one more over at KB&G, then go home.

Couldn't agree more. This news is psychologically devasting; Indonesian bank customers are only allowed to withdraw $60 from their account..... If the awful implication of this directive actually filters through to the minds of just 30% of the great unwashed then we're all stuffed!
"Hey - how can that be?" they will say, not understanding the mechanics of the fractional reserve banking system.
"I want all my money now".
poof..................
And this only one scenario from many others currently playing in our globe...India/Pakistan...Euro...Y2K....Derivatives.....China....Japan...
Although an 'organ' of the Powers That B, this week's TIME mag is an eye opener - especially the article on the Euro and its Orwellian impact on Europe!

Yes the Debt must be constantly fed......otherwise the borrower is at the mercy of the lender.

Someone said that 10 trillion in assets & 10 trillion in debt is no problem. First of all it shows how the priests of Baal have stolen the entire net worth of the economy in exchange for a worthless promise. Second, this massive debt must be fed with more debt, roughly a trillion a year. Where is it going to come from?

Government Spending

Every politician talks about a smaller government, but they don't mean it. You see, someone has to borrow the debt into existence.

All this government spending is just like the "mob of Rome", and the mob gets bigger each day. The mob is made up of the unemployed, of bureaucrats, teachers, civil servants, and also all the professions who thrive on govt regulation like attorneys and accountants. Such a large percentage of the population derives its income directly or indirectly off the state. How much longer can this go on?

The Fed won't be seen cutting off credit to US Govt, so it has to end some other way. Will Y2K be their exit? or will they manage to perpetuate The System of Baal for another several generations?

10 for 11: It is so simple of a concept a 5 year old could grasp it.

Australian All Ordinaries futures
Are currently trading at a 11 point discount to the physical.

When ever the futures trade at a discount to the physical
The markets either rebound or tank hard.
90% of the time they rebound.
This time smells different.

Since we last published on 5/1 we have had 3 flash updates as our
model's signal strength continued to deteriorate. This reflects a
similar deterioration in the stock market.

The Dow did have a new closing high just last Wednesday, but that
headline masked quite a bit of weakness under the surface. NONE of
the other market indexes hit new highs along with the Dow. This
means we have across the board price divergences, a negative for
the market.

In addition, the market internals continue to be weak. In fact,
last week the declining issues outnumbered the advancing issues
every single day. The last time we had five consecutive days of
negative breadth was in the steep market selloff in early January.
Yet the Dow and SP500 were able to squeak out a gain for the week.
This reflects just how "thin" the market rally has been for the
last few weeks and months. We have pointed this out before in
recent issues. By "thin" we mean that the rallies are being powered
by only the very largest stocks. That is why the Dow is hitting new
highs but the broader indexes like the SP500, NASDAQ, and Russell
2000 are a considerable distance from their highs. This is not a
healthy sign and it typically appears very late in a bull market.

All that said, with five days of negative breadth we should see
some sort of a relief rally soon, probably mid to late this week.
This rally could come from lower levels, however, and we will be
looking at it as a counter trend rally. In other words, the current
trend looks to be down.

I think the "Americans" you have in mind are those on the mold of Hawkeye , the character in Fenimore Cooper's Last of the Mohicans. Those are difficult people to conquer.

Could you expand on the phrase the Euro's Orwellian impact on Europe which was in your last post ?

From poverty many social ills arise ( Crime, family breakdown, escape into drugs to name a few. ) So where does poverty come from. It is manufactured in every state capitol, every city hall and of course Washington D.C.

Statistically you would expect 2 1/2% poverty.

You get 18% poverty ( one estimate I saw ) when you disrupt the normal distribution of wealth by interfering with the normal functioning of a free market. A team with 15 players on the field can usually beat a team with 4 players. When government grants a privelege to a few at the expense of the many then of course the few win.

Mozel's discussion of usury is one of the grants of monopoly privelege to a select group. The drug companies enjoy another privelege protected by the FDA who controls new competition from coming into the market place under the guise of protecting the public. Lots of people die from lack of technological advance in medicine so that this privelege situation can continue.

Every medical, legal, accounting, plumbing, etc. grant of license is a grant of privelege that gives those select few an economic advantage. Cities where plumbing is licensed suffer far higher plumbing charges from the "union rates". Cable monopoly, same story and the list goes on. Everywhere that government decides who gets what they always decide in favor of themselves and their friends. Hell government is one hugh overpriced monopoly itself and it does what all monopolies do, protect its own best interest at the expense of its customers.

If you look at the wealth distribution, it is looking more and more like a slave society with each passing year.

It is only incidental to privelege creation that government does not want gold for money. This would get in the way of their easy access to money and it would get in the way of the privelege that was granted to their friends. And of course these people wouldn't really want to compete in a free market, cause then their base incompetence might put them closer to the poverty line than the jet set line.

I had a friend over today and we were discussing this concept.
I explained to her that if she had 30k in the bank and a 150k mortgage on her house, which was worth 190k.
That if the bank went bad she would not only lose her 30k.
But the bank could well force her to sell the house into a depressed market.
She was astounded to think this is possible.
She feels so safe now with the money in the bank and a house she has equity in.

She didn't feel so safe after thinking it over.

'Ignorance is bliss'

As many Asians are finding out.

Soon it will be our turn too.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Interesting to note that GM bugeted $500 million for its Y2k fix.
So far it has spent $40 million and feels secure about being compliant in time.

It has to either spend $460 million or fail in its mission to be Y2k compliant.

Reading between the lines says no fix in time.

Y2k estimates are rarely over quoted.
Who else is far behind in spending their allocated funds to fix the bug?
Understating the work, overstating the costs,
Or not getting the work done fast enough.

Means little if the company fails to meet the deadline.

What happens to your 10 farmers is in the first year, 1 farmer loses his farm, which may be bought by the usurer or one of the 9 farmers can borrow to buy it. The next year another borrower loses his farm.

Pretty soon the usurer owns 5 farms, upon which he throws a few sheep to keep the place tidy, and hires one of the former owners to mind the farms, but only 1 farmer for the 5 farms because most of the land has become idle.

2 others are now hired hands at one of the 5 mortgaged, but not yet foreclosed farms.

The last 2 are unemployed, and the other 8 people are taxed so as to support the 2 unemployed.

One farmer pays off his debt and resorts to barter, so the usurer comes over and beats him up, and then decides to have his legislator pass a law authorizing new taxes ( from which he himself is exempt ) : property taxes, death duties, gift taxes, capital gains taxes, so that one day the poor farmer will be forced to sell out to the usurer and he will own the entire community.

When this country gained its Independence, the evil consequences of usury and of government grants of monopoly were well known. The purpose of Independence was to be free of them. The phrase "inalienable rights to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" is a declaration against usury, tax debt, and monopoly.

You may be interested to know that most of the signers of the Declaration of Independence paid a very heavy price for their act. Many of them lost all of their property in the War; many of them lost their lives or their health; and others lost their families. I cannot join in cynicism about motive considering these sacrifices for our freedom in the War of Independence.
But, the betrayal of the principles for which they sacrificed galls me.

Several hours ago we had a lively discussion concerning PooBoys first venture into commodities trading, it being the purchase of the Dec $330 call for slightly above what was the last quote Friday of $350. That got me to thinking, first that seemed rather cheap. Look at it for 1.1% of the current value of 100 oz of the spot price of the commodity ( gold ) PooBoy controls the item and is in profit on a 10% move. I looked up similar situation in Silver, there you have to pay 4.5% of the current spot value of the contract and the price has to rise 12.5% before break even. In oil it 3.3% down and profit in 10%, Soybeans for Janauary delivery ( a little more time ) it 3.73%.

The point: here we have 100 oz of gold controlled for 1.1% and in profit only 10% above the current quote, it's relatively cheap. I suggest its because of all the short hedges and options strategies. there is so little faith that this market ( gold ) can sustain a rally that you only have to put 1.1% down to be in the money 10% higher.

Something is screeming at me : That's cheap for a reason and that reason
may get reversed with a vengence.

Hope this made sense.

This looks great - Buffett sell some Coke and support this stuff.

The usurer always has to have an enforcer.
And when the enforcer is government, the usurer has all the moral force of law behind his wickedness.
And when the enforcer is also the client of the usurer, the result is an ever increasing burden of taxation to pay the usury. On that score this government has gone the way of Rome. And the modern mob is just as you outlined it.

As you say the concept of ten for eleven is so simple. And when it is repeated endlessly, it operates exactly like a simple principle of natural selection to an inevitable conclusion. It is very strange that it is only clear from knowledge of moral law. If it were susceptible to understanding by reason, it would be the constant study of economists. But, they are mesmerized by its magic just like the borrowers.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
Indonesia -5%
Pakistan -3.09%
Thailand -3.06%
Singapore -2.49%
Malaysia -2.28%
Hong Kong -1.33%
Australia -1.18%

GCM8 under pressure = $300.10

Europe opening up in the red.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
Indonesia -5%
Pakistan -3.09%
Thailand -3.06%
Singapore -2.49%
Malaysia -2.28%
Hong Kong -1.33%
Australia -1.18%

GCM8 under pressure = $300.10

There is a probability of future price movement based on recent price movement that goes into option pricing as a volatility factor. The gold options are priced to reflect that, I think. The writers of options in gold, according to reports, have been very efficient at denying the call option buyers profits. Since mines are writing many of those calls, they do have supply to put into the market as expiration approaches. Especially since they can offer paper gold on a par with physical gold. Just some thoughts.

SPM8 is currently dropping.
PPT or the dippies?

When LBMA changed its rules to allow paper gold to trade on a par with physical, it created some disatisfied customers. For me this information from ANOTHER was quite valid and useful, whoever he is. If a man is going to market for gold, he wants gold for his tender not paper. He wants the thing not the promise. The longer this current situation exists, the more dissatified the disappointed buyers at LBMA become. It is not tolerable to operate a physical market according to these rules. The first London Gold Pool also failed. Conducting the international trade in gold in London seems to be an essential factor in the $US strategy of the Anglo-American alliance.

Soharto has just been asked to stand down by his ministers.

First, I think you're quite right about the pricing of gold options reflecting volitility and being constricted by mining company's active selling. It is interesting to me how the gold options pricing particluarly reveals the aggresiveness of the shorts. Do you think this gold market can ever get up from under this preasure. I was reading the financials of one gold company whose profit had been greatly enhanced by hedge strategies they were very proud of, Seems they had the next four years production hedged one way or the other. When this is all the fad with gold mining companies might it not be the end of the game.

By contrast Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) whose financial experts sold 60% of this years PD production at $135, yes $135, now insist they are not forward selling. I bet in retrospect $400 will look pretty good. Don't we all fight the last war.
What dow LBMA stand for.

"BEEN DOWN SO LONG IT LOOKS LIKE UP TO ME"

Bill Buckler's excellent Aussie $$ gold chart demonstrates very clearly ( IMHO ) that gold is gathering strength for the next upmove after a double bottom over the past year. Check out Bill's charts in other currencies as well.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html


All you US$$ slaves are the only ones who haven't seen a huge appreciation in the POG. Reify gave some very good advice in a post tonight. Some of us get too close to the daily swings in prices and consequently our emotions are on a yoyo string. I can see it in your posts. Relax. Gold is in the last stages of a long bear market. It has turned the corner and is now going up. It has already gone up substantially ( even in US$$ ) . Remember 278??

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

I am going to take up some Bart-space with one of my old posts. Penny dreadfuls with good ground are going for a song ( Blue skies.... ) . They are a good option to gold call options. They don't expire unless the company does!! I am going to be a squillionaire on some of the ones I have been scraping off the bottom. Why not join me!!

......................


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 05:31
Nick@C ( Smells like a bottom!! ) ID#393224:
Copyright  1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When gold goes up $50 an oz., I'm sure I won't be able to get on this site, because all the "I-told-you-so'er's" will
be hogging the e-waves. It is so dead around here that we must be at or very near a bottom!!

I invest in lots of penny dreadfuls. According to the snake oil salesman in the following URL, only 3% of people
make money on P.D.s. I am happy to be in that group. Probably because I don't believe anything I read and I do
the opposite of what any sensible person would do. ANYTHING you read in the news or on KITCO etc. was
known by 'OTHERS' before you. When you read about it, it is usually the time to sell!! You've all heard about the
'buy the rumour, sell the news' -- well, it is soooooooo true.

There are lots of smarter and quicker guys/gals than you out there---sooooo, I am gonna let you in on a little
secret. Ignore everything you hear, and watch just two things--1 ) price and 2 ) volume.

Check the volumes of penny dreadfuls about an hour into the trading day. If a stock is going UP on
volume--check out it's chart ( If you haven't studied charting--you shouldn't be investing at all. Start out with
Edwards/McGee?? and go from there ) . If the stock is coming off a support level--jump in with the heavy
volume. Put a stop-loss in just below the support level. Do NOT EVER change that stop-loss. SELL and take
your loss if the price goes against you. I won't tell you when to sell ( on a gain ) --as I haven't figured that one out
yet. I have bought shares at 10 cents--sold at 20 cents--then watched them go to 5 dollars. You could have
bought Bre-X at 4 cents and sold at $$286!!!!!!! I would have been out at 8 cents and committed Hara-Kiri at a
buck and a half!! At least I wouldn't have had to see my 'investment' multiply by 7150 x. Also remember that they
have now gone to zero!! Make sure you are one of the 'investors' in the Bahamas and not the funny farm.

Watch the volume!!! SOMEBODY knows SUMPTHIN'. Only buy when they're going up--unless you have the
skills of a DA, RJ or APH and can pick the support levels. SELL TOO EARLY!! You won't go broke taking a
profit. Don't get greedy. Leave that to Michael Douglas!!

Volume--Price. Easy. Buy up. Sell down. Easy. 3% do it right. You other 97% buy a DOW Mutual Fund--30%
a year to infinity--no sweat!!


http://www.goodbytes.com/pennygold/bre-x.html

Russia -5.99%
Italy -1.75%
England -1.63%
Netherlands -1.32%
Spain -1.18%
Finland -1.13%
Switzerland -1.06%
France - 1.05%

What does LBMA stand for and what does it do. If you want to buy gold in London don't you go to the exchange and buy through its operatives and get physical - NO???

Sharefin - Suharto asked to stand down - hell, that'll put gold up on the day. Gotta cover my shorts - crisis over gold will rally -probably not, probabpy not until the dollar is no longer King. Can't have two Kings, gold is on the lamb.

G'day mate. You scooped the ABC ( by an hour ) on the Suharto post. Kitco--best news service on the planet!!

Looks like EVERYONE is selling EVERYTHING.. I'm goingto attempt to get $5000 in cash out of my bank today.I'll let all know if I get any static. BTW do you have a url for the GOLBEX?

That lind of @ symbols without a break screw up the margins on the Kitco board for many users ( me included ) Also , long URLs do the same.

They get attention but they are really a bother.

for the reference to your prior writings and the privateer. Checked out the point and fiqure charts - why dont' we see more of those these days with computers etc. - anyway checked out the charts, yes gold is stronger in DMs and YEn and $A., but you know I notice that the rally that just failed faailed at prior resistance in those other currencies. In the DM it was at 570 and in the yen I think it was at 4200. This congestion area corresponds to the 320 overhead for US gold.

You're right we should all pay less attentio to the minute and more to the big picture. We run the risk of getting faked out by noise, onm the other hand when this thing really turns, assuming this sloppy bottom is a poreview, we'll know. Volumn and price.

Check this url http://www.peicommerce.com/quotex/HIGH/METPGSO.HTM

http:/www.peicommerce.com/quotex/HIGH/METPGSO.HTM

Today should be pretty interesting as the limits are off the PD futures. The longs in June who want will be able to roll over into the Sept, giving the stuck shorts in the June somebody to buy from. Seems like the making of a top??

notice how the Russian market has fallen about 35% from its 52 week high.
How are my Russian rubble derivatives doing anyway. No short sqeeze there.

http://www.peicommerce.com then go to "market watch" at the lower left of page then "metals''

Apologies for delay in replying. ISP giving me trouble.
Quotes ( selected ) from TIME article.

On May 2, they launched a process that is virtually unstoppable: on New Years Day
1999, the newly created European Central Bank takes over monetary policy from the
member countries and by July 1, 2002, the Euro replaces marks, francs, pesetas, schillings,
escudos, punts, lira, markka, gulden, and perhaps drachmas. Only a few holdouts will
remain, notably Britains pound sterling, but those will be mere regional curiosities
secondary to a Euro that may eventually stand alongside the dollar as a global reserve
currency. All this should be sobering, even frightening, for Europeans as they enter the
EMU: the bridge is burning behind them, but nobody knows what lies ahead. Those who
created the EMU - mainly politicians and their myrmidons in the offices and conference
rooms of Brussels - portray a beckoning landscape of wealth, liberty and economic power
that will rival the United States and surpass Asia. The decision to adopt the euro, says
Kohl, is a question of peace and war for the 21st century. If the decision is yes he says,
future generations in Germany and Europe can live in peace and freedom, in social
stability and also in prosperity.
But historians warn that he consequences of EMU could be the very opposite. The euro
could be the biggest strategic blunder in Europe since 1914 and the Treaty of Versailles
says Emanuale Todd, a French sociologist with an uncannily accurate record - his 1976
book The Final Fall predicted almost to the year the demise of the USSR.  The euro is
based on the false premise that European societies are similar, and their various
components are prone to convergence and harmonisation...The euro will no longer exist as
of 2005. Even more negative is Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, who warns that EMU
will lead European nations into conflict among themselves and with the United States - and
could even result in a new European war.
At the very least, a single currency in use across the Continent and managed by a single
central bank will bring basic and irreversible change to how Europe is governed and how it
deals with foreign friends and competitors. Labour unions, governments ability to regulate
economies and the workings of the welfare state will wither in the face of market forces
unleashed by the single currency says Richard Bronk, a European equity strategist at Merril
Lynch. A Trojan horse containing the warriors of supply-side reform and deregulation. If
the horse is brought within the citadel, resistance may be increasingly forlon.
But pessimists - or are they realists? - argue that , whether Trojan horse or gift horse, EMU
is an animal that merits a far closer examination than it has received so far. Even advocates
agree that EMU will bring a surge of mergers, downsizing and bankruptcies of businesses
unable or unwilling to compete in the new environment. Banking, especially, will undergo a
fierce shakeout that is expected to bring closings of hundreds of branches. That, in turn,
will mean job losses and pay cuts for millions of Europeans, including a disproportionate
number of white collar workers who had come to view their jobs as life long sinecures.
Even if euro-efficiency brings a new era of growth and job creation - as proponents
promise - there will be a time lag of several years that could prove to be more than
Europeans are willing to tolerate. But they will turn in vain to their politicians for relief,
because the politicians are giving up the means by which they traditionally reduce
unemployment and absorb economic shocks: the minting of money and regulation of the
economy through adjustments in interest and exchange rates. That, after July, will become
the province of a European Central Bank located in the flint-hearted banking capital of
Frankfurt and led by a Dutchman with a strong personal inclination towards hard money.
The article carries on.
I regard the intro of the euro as a natural phenomenon, something that is taking place
beyond our control says Francien Anker who works for a homeless foundation in
Amsterdam. It was more or less promised to us that our well-m being would not be
affected and I tend to believe it. I guess were very obedient and trustful
How can Europeans be so passive about what an event that Chancellor Kohl, among
others, calls one of the most important decisions of the twentieth century?
One reason is that the euros arrival has been so incremental as to be nearly invisible. The
euro will act like a glacier, says Daniel Gros, deputy director of the Centre for European
Policy Studies in Brussels. It moves at a pace that the man on the street will hardly notice.
But after ten years, Europes landscape will be transformed.
The unification of Germany in 1990 involved the overnight absorption of 17 million
citizens of what was then the GDR into West Germanys deutschemark zone. The
aftermath has been what EMU naysayers have been warning of; joblessness, industrial
collapse and huge transfers of money from rich to poor. 

Just a small portion of the article. Also check out the story about on-line stock broking .
Why bother betting on the horses???????

Globex at http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/french_ban_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/poll_japan_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/indonesia__6.html

I would appreciate comments from anyone on what is the best method of purchasing silver. The local bank charges an extra $3 an ounce for phsycal silver. What other sources exist. If I buy silver certificates are there additional risks. Can someone explain how a purchase for July delivery is delivered or sold. Guidance on methods of investing in silver would be appreciated.
Thank you in advance.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980517/japan_bank_1.html

Gold down $1.10 a little while ago. Not too bad considering the renewed pressure on Asian markets and currencies plus another big smash in silver. Not to mention the fact that the G7 meeeting just ended. Captain Bill has the definitive data here, but doesn't gold always ( or almost always ) go down in the immediate aftermath of G7 conclaves?

May 18, 1998
Johnson Matthey Wins Big With Decision Not to Hedge

By NEIL BEHRMANN
Special to THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Traders are smarting from volatility in palladium and platinum prices, but Johnson Matthey PLC executives are grinning.

The company markets, refines and holds a stockpile of the metals, which are used in products such as automobile catalytic converters, analysts say. It should, therefore, be vulnerable to market gyrations. Yet late last year, Johnson Matthey disclosed that it wouldn't hedge against possible price tumbles by selling futures and options on the derivatives
market.

On the face of it, traders say, that was a dangerous strategy. Yet such has been the volatility and shortage of the metals that spot prices of palladium and, to a lesser extent, platinum, have soared well above futures quotes, company officials say. That meant hedging would've been exceedingly costly, as Johnson Matthey would've been selling futures at deep discounts to spot quotes.

Jump in Stockpile Value

Instead, Johnson Matthey has received a windfall from the boom in Palladium, rhodium and platinum prices by refraining from selling on the derivatives market, analysts say. The value of its stockpile of platinum and sister metals has jumped 29% to 90 million pounds ( $146 million ) , from 70 million pounds last September, they estimate.

A Johnson Matthey spokesman won't confirm analysts' figures before results for the fiscal year ended March are published in June. He insists that any extraordinary gains from the stockpile won't be credited to the company's profit.

However, any unrealized gains still provide a cushion against any price
collapse, traders say, adding that the market is unpredictable. The metals have surged mainly because exports from Russia, the biggest producer of palladium and second-largest miner of platinum, came to a halt this year, traders say. The spot palladium price has more than tripled from February 1997, when the bull market in palladium began, to $395 an ounce in London Friday, traders say. Spot platinum, meanwhile, is up about 19% from February 1997 lows, trading at $404 an ounce in London Friday.

Russian Supplies

"Everyone knows that if Russian supplies surge unexpectedly, prices of the metals will tumble," says Trevor Pitts, manager of Platinum Group Metals Marketing at Standard Bank London, a unit of Standard Bank Investment Corp. of South Africa. Yet it's impossible to guess when that's going to happen, he adds.

Such a possibility isn't fazing the stock market; in the past three months, Johnson Matthey's stock has leapt 31%, to 619 pence ( $10.04 ) as of Friday.

But the rally could peter out, cautions Adam Collins, an analyst at Merrill Lynch. In addition, Johnson Matthey's stock price has been volatile in the past two years, he says. It plunged from around 650 pence in mid-1996 to a low of 462 pence in the middle of last year and then soared to 697 pence last fall. By February this year, it was down to
473 pence before rallying again, he says.

Johnson Matthey is vulnerable to problems in Asia, Mr. Collins says,
noting that Japan consumes the biggest proportion of the company's platinum for its jewelry and automobile industries.

Other Divisions

"The market tends to focus on Johnson Matthey's links to platinum, palladium and other precious metals, but other divisions are growing faster," says Robert Speed, research director at Henderson Crosthwaite Institutional Brokers Ltd., in London.

Profit from the precious-metals division, which includes platinum business, accounts for about 37% of the company's operating profit and should rise 14% to 50 million pounds this fiscal year, Mr. Speed says. But Johnson Matthey's most profitable products are multilayer circuit boards and other electronic materials for computer and telecommunications companies, he says. Profit at the electronics unit could jump 29% this year to 40 million pounds and will double to 80 million pounds by 2000,
Mr. Speed predicts. Those earnings will then exceed profits of the
precious-metals and catalytic-converter divisions, he adds.

Johnson Matthey, which is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 15, is also a good stock pick because the company has a sound pharmaceuticals business that supplies platinum anticancer drugs as well as a drug for hyperactive children with attention disorders, Mr. Speed says.

But Mr. Collins of Merrill Lynch cautions that while there will be gains from the electronics and pharmaceuticals units in the short run, both are threatened by competition. He wouldn't chase the stock, he adds.

Words he will have to eat? 'Berger said that, in relying on Chinese rockets, American companies did
not risk passing restricted technology on to the Chinese. The satellites, he
said, "are put into a black box" under the supervision of the Department
of Defense "and taken to China, put on top of the missile and blown up
into the sky." He said that there was "not technology transfer."'

This note received over the weekend from the Islamic Mint.

P.S. Welcome to the Islamic Mint next Saturday on the Kitco forum!

Tom

********************************************************************************

My name is Mahmud Lund. Please allow me to introduce myself as a director of the Islamic Mint. Umar Vadillo has asked me to communicate with you, give his greetings and the news about his recent trip to Malaysia. To quote from his report, entitled: The Islamic Dinar in Malaysia An historical step was made a few days ago by the Islamic Party of Malaysia with more than 500,000 members and the Government of Kelantan ( A state in the NE of Malaysia ) when they adopted the Islamic Dinar as part of their policy. In a public event on the 28th of April, in the city hall of Kuala Krai in Kelantan, members of the Central Committee and other senior members announced the decision to introduce the Islamic Dinar as part of the party policy. Then the same day in the evening in a large gathering of 10,000 people in the mini-stadium Kelaburan, the Chief Minister of Kelantan personally endorsed the establishment of the Islamic Dinar as the currency of the Muslims. In a talk which I was invited to give at this gathering there was a resounding acclamation for the choice of the Islamic Dinar over the US Dollar as the currency which the audience would choose for themselves. I finished my talk with the words, "Allah does not say in the Qur'an, 'US Dollar or Malaysian Ringgit'. Allah says, 'Dinar' and 'Dirham'. If we use the Islamic Dinar prosperity will come to us; if we accept the US Dollar misery will come to us. Let us say from Kelantan to the world "The Islamic Dinar is our currency. No more inflation. No more Soros." A flood of people came afterwards wanting to immediately take dinars and dirhams.

Tom, Umar asked me to request an assistance of you. He wanted to post the above report on the Kitcom ( ? ) site - the site you had recommended to him - but their password system won't let us on until next Saturday. Could you please post the above as a message from the Islamic Mint? Together with the following postscript? Umar and I express our gratitude in advance and appreciate your help.

The PS follows:

The Islamic Dinar is on its way to becoming the currency of the Muslim

peoples. And, Allah knows best, it could once again become the currency of all people who are tired of being cheated.

The Islamic Mint acknowledges the many requests we have had for purchase of the Dinar and the Dirham and ask your patience as we proceed methodically towards a successful world-wide launch in significant numbers for these most important coins, a real money! We hope to be able to fill orders in the near future. Please visit the Islamic Mint for news updates.

Thanks once again, Sincerely, Mahmud Lund.

Received your e.mail and attempted to respond. My mail may not be going out and I was blocked from Kitco most of last evening. ISP troubles I guess.

Ersel your 6:08,--- http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM
Checked it out, would like to hear from you as to what you liked about
this conglomeration of information and confusion.
Silver, is an example- did you read what he says and then have you
looked at a silver chart?
Other Metals- same story. Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe they
don't speak a language that's comprehensible to me.
Confusion reins, reigns, rains!

Tells us again the importance of the Dinar. Is this to be a coin made of gold like the Canadian maple leef. What is their furutre possible
toral circulation. When will there be any circulation. When will this idea be anything more than an Islamic nationalistic chant.??

I am just asking questions. I can see the significance as part of a wider picture to turn away from the dollar, a turning away which will eventually put life back into at least three of the above listed precious metals.

Your comments please.

reify---

the term is chaos and flux my friend....the same critter that
has conspired to keep me from flying amongst the beta particles...

the ssm is being armor plated for an assault on the curriencies....
the mpeso and A$ are fixing to suck silt from the depths of the
marianna trench..

bbmlwalms.....

Silverbaron - Thank you for your informative post. Earlier today some one posted that Islamic Nations hate each each other more than "us" or US. I cannot agree with that train of thought. If they are divided and many are in disagreement nothing will bring them together against a common enemy like a gold currency. The establishment of currency boards and fixed exchange rates must return to international economy. The present system is criminal and the USD is screwing everybody. I repeat the following portion of your post. Thanks

"I finished my talk with the words, "Allah does not say in the Qur'an, 'US Dollar or Malaysian Ringgit'. Allah says, 'Dinar' and 'Dirham'. If we use the Islamic Dinar prosperity will come to us; if we accept the US Dollar misery will come to us. Let us say from Kelantan to the world "The Islamic Dinar is our currency. No more inflation. No more Soros." A flood of people came afterwards wanting to immediately take dinars and dirhams".

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980517/business/stories/asia_1.html
BIRMINGHAM, England ( Reuters ) - Group of Eight industrial nations said on Sunday they were confident Asia's stability can be restored if International Monetary Fund economic reform plans are fully implemented.

But they tempered their optimism with a warning against a protectionist backlash to the Asian economic crisis both in industrialized countries and in the region.

In a communique issued at the end of their annual summit, the leaders said: "We strongly support reforms underway in the affected countries and welcome progress so far achieved.

"With full implementation of programs agreed with the IMF we are confident that stability can be restored," it said.

The leaders of the United States, Russia, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Canada said the underlying factors that helped Asia achieve impressive growth in the past remained in place despite the market turmoil of the last nine months.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who chaired the summit, said the G8 leaders had singled out China for praise for not devaluing its currency in response to the crisis.

"We...paid particular tribute in the discussions we had this morning to the work that China has done in the aftermath of the Asia economic crisis and to its very strong commitment to financial stability," Blair told reporters.

French President Jacques Chirac said that if China had not held its currency levels during Asian crisis, "the crisis would have been catastrophic."

The French leader said he would personally like China to join the G8 in future, although officials in other delegations said Beijing did not appear to qualify either on democracy or on human rights grounds yet.

Urging Asian countries to keep opening their markets to investment and trade, the leaders said: "We are concerned that the difficulties could trigger short-term protectionist forces both in the region and in our own countries. Such an approach would be highly damaging to the prospects for recovery.

"We resolve to keep our own markets open and call on other countries to do the same," it said.

The financial crisis in Asia, with the collapse of several currencies, had temporarily set back otherwise rosy prospects for the global economy since last year's G8 summit in Denver, Colorado.

Thailand and South Korea have adopted rigorous economic restructuring programs in exchange for emergency IMF financial aid. Indonesia initially balked at the reforms demanded by the IMF but has since adopted a program, yet to be implemented.

At least 500 people died in riots, looting and arson in the last week in Indonesia as student protests against authoritarian President Suharto have spiraled into an outpouring of public anger over price rises, corruption and nepotism.

The leaders made a strong call for political change in Indonesia in a statement issued after their first session on Friday, stressing that that the government should open a dialogue and meet the people's aspirations.

The G8 leaders acknowledged in their statement that the Asian economic crisis had had a serious impact on the poor and the most vulnerable, and called for social policies to protect the worst-affected groups.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nick@C
Best you get a park closer to parliment house to walk those rotties in.
Leave those natives alone and go after the real pests. JH etc.

Caught that snipet off channel 7.
Plenty of coverage here in the news.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980518/business/stories/trade_1.html

Regardless of our individual religious convictions or our thoughts about the Islamic faith - with respect to their feelings toward usury, honest money, gold and silver, these people are our friends and our allies. And they may be legion.

Thanks for the post. That is not a statement of confidence from the G8, it is a WISH LIST. The G8 Lads met for a weekend piss-up and lied to each other and to the World press about loyalty towards each other and their nations. But the REALITY is that each will return home with his own country's AGENDA.

Clinton had a flurry of cabinet resignations in the months prior to the 96 election. I wonder now whether these recent revelations were related to this.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/story.html?s=z/reuters/980515/international/stories/russia_9.html
"We do not see serious danger either to the rouble or to the stability of the Russian Federation,"
"We are slightly afraid by a certain violence of opinions of international investors vis a vis Russian markets,
"We've all got to tighten our belts, make fewer foreign trips and economize on official cars.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Avid chatter:
~~~~~~~~~
It must be bullish for russian weapons industrie
they can sell some of their 30,000 atomic bombs to india; pakistan will be interested as well...
in indonesia the chinese minority which controls 90% of the economy is in danger; china must protect them and of course keep their superpower status in the region
russia of course must do something
..the whole southern region is moslem and all that oil there
they had that war in chechnia only because of one pipeline
they have now an excuse for modernising their army
dont forget china get american defense secrets from clinton

mobby dick wanted to swallaw the whole planet but some asian seem to be unhappy with everything falling apart
I think all money invested in indonesia is gone; everything there belongs Suharto and he can only rule in Saddams manner

mornin folks ....uh oh the sky only fell in some of the fringe markets.....looks like the US of A is still A-OK
boy that JY sure got the heck beat outta it ..... :}
must be on it's way to join the CD which is surely goin to zero!:}

do you think there's a chance the globex will go down 4 points if china will invade indonesia?
naw no chance.... they'd have to set off an atomic bomb in Jakarta at the very least:}

Indian market up 1.5% ( cause they now have the "POW AR" ) Pakistan down 3.5% ( cause they only talk about gettin the "POW AR" )

yeah I guess I am somewhat cynical......folks treat it here in NA like another non event....even the pres was wishy washy about his comments on suhwarto.... no one is really concerned about it.... only concerned that it might affect the US equity markets in some small way
...so another 200 million folks join the ranks of the starving ....ain;t no big deal
....and if they get too rowdy complainin about starvation Uncle Sam will send a couple of smart bombs down the pipe to quell their hunger

Russia's stock market gapped down at the opening and is off over 11%, with most of Europe down also, anyone heard news about Russia?

Seems like today would be a great time to buy gold - it's under $300, and with the uncertainty in the markets, the economic and political turmoil, it's a far better hold then paper debased with green ink.

Monday May 18, 7:25 am Eastern Time

Indonesia-Economy

By Chris McCall

SINGAPORE, May 18 ( Reuters ) - Nervous investors acted on Monday to secure themselves against unrest in Indonesia, as Thai exporters backed away from Indonesian letters of credit and two major loans stalled.

As student protests persisted in Jakarta after last week's riots in which at least 500 died, business people in Indonesia's neighbours took steps to insulate themselves from any economic fallout.

In Bangkok, Thai rice and sugar exporters said they had stopped taking Indonesian letters of credit.

``The situation in the country raises a lot of questions on risks which we are not ready to take,'' said Vorapong Pichpongsa, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

``Unless their letters of credit are guaranteed by financial institutions in third countries such as Singapore or Hong Kong, I am afraid we will have to suspend shipments.''

On sugar, Thai trading houses said they would apply the same measure.

In Manila, the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) postponed a board meeting to discuss a proposed $1.5 billion loan.

An ADB spokesman said the meeting was being rescheduled, but did not give a new date. ``I believe it is most unlikely it will be this week.''

The Export-Import Bank of Japan announced it was delaying the signing of a $1 billion loan to Indonesia, scheduled for Tuesday, due to concerns about whether bank officials would be able to travel to Jakarta.

``Because of concern about public peace, we are now working to switch the venue of the signing ceremony to Tokyo,'' a spokesman said.

Amid more calls for President Suharto to step down, Jakarta's stock market slid 4.19 percent to 388.92, while the rupiah sank to 12,500 against the dollar before recovering slightly.

The World Bank's country director for Indonesia said Jakarta's $40 billion-plus rescue package from the International Monetary Fund needed to be re-examined.

``The IMF and other donors will clearly have to reassess the reform package, particularly the monetary and fiscal programme and targets and the assumptions underlying them, which have obviously been affected by the ongoing unrest,'' Dennis de Tray said.

Fuel price rises ordered under the IMF plan were one of the factors that sparked last week's unrest in Jakarta.

Joseph Estrada, presumed winner of the May 11 election in the Philippines, said the turmoil in Indonesia would affect all its neighbours, stressing the country's importance in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) .

``We are all concerned because Indonesia is a very important member of the ASEAN,'' Estrada said. ``I hope and pray that they resolve their internal problems immediately because all of us will be affected.''

Estrada also expressed concern about the impact on the Philippine economy of the return home of hundreds of Filipinos working in Indonesia.

After a mass exodus of foreign nationals at the weekend, foreign firms in the troubled country were still re-examining their operations on Monday.

Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corp ( 5711.T ) said it was considering a temporary halt to construction of the Gresik smelter, Indonesia's first copper smelter, scheduled for completion in August.

``''We may stop construction temporarily. However, the situation does not yet allow us to make a final decision,`` a company spokesman said.

Australia's Broken Hill Pty Co Ltd ( BHP.AX ) said it had no plans to reopen its four steel coating and rolling plants around Jakarta that closed last week.

"We're just monitoring the situation," a spokesman said.

BHP has kept its coal mining operations in East Kalimantan province operating, the spokesman said.

Japanese government spokesman Kanezo Muraoka said 5,000 Japanese were expected to return home from Indonesia by commercial flights by Wednesday. Many foreign firms have ordered staff out of Indonesia.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX.M - news ) , which runs a giant gold and copper mine in the eastern province of Irian Jaya, said on Friday it was moving its expatriate employees out of Jakarta, although the mine was still operating normally.

The US dollar is just about the only currency that has gone up against Gold. You are actually up or flat holding Gold in many other currencies.
The world is infatuated with the USD.

http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/1/turmoil.html

DOWN 12 % - I guess they won't be shipping palladium anytime soon.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
Hungary down - 3.81%
Turkey down -3.49%

What we are seeing is a flight of capital
From the high risk countries.

Is this a re-evaluation of risk?
Or the beginning of a domino effect?

What do the money movers know that is worrying them?

Buffett's flight to silver.
Soros flight to PM's
Gate's flight to an isolated island
Soharto's flight to safety.

These individuals are the worlds richest people.

And they are changing their long term plans.
Wonder why?

The website for the Islamic Mint is

http://www.netmatters.co.uk/users/murabitun/The_Islamic_Dinar.html

I wish I could share with you a great deal of important new information on this topic, but it is a developing story and most of the information I know is on their website.

The only other communications I am aware of, are

( 1 ) A private communication ( not orignating from the Islamic Mint ) about a sizable purchase of Dirhams and Dinars by a well-known entity in the "safe money arena" - I cannot disclose the name of the purchaser.

( 2 ) A communication that was relayed to me ( originating from the Islamic Mint ) that the Dinars and Dirhams would become available in North American in the not-too-distant future.

If you have specific questions, I suggest that you contact the Islamic Mint , at the following email address

Islamicmint@netmatters.co.uk

or perhaps just wait and see if they come here next week to talk with us. ( ;^ ) )

spot POG would rise! But what does it do? It falls! If this isn't political manipulation of the market, I don't know what is. It is as if
the world economic Titanic has hit its iceburg, and the captain and crew have decided to axe the lifeboats.

HOW IT WORKS
http://www.gold.org/Ginfos/Gi4mar.htm

The members are the Mocatta Group, ( a division of Standard Chartered Bank ) , N.M. Rothschild, Deutsche Bank Sharps Pixley ( since 1993 ) ,
Montagu Precious Metals ( part of Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation ) and Republic National Bank of New York ( since 1993 ) . At the fixing,
the members, linked by telephone to their own trading rooms, balance
all their "buy" and "sell" orders. The price at which that balance
is achieved is "the fix". Its strength is that a large volume of gold
can be bought or sold at a single clearly posted price. The London "fix" is a benchmark for many transactions worldwide, whether for mines, fabricators, or central banks, because it is an undisputed price.
===========
"Five men meet in London twice daily and decide the world price of gold. They represent Mocatta & Goldsmid, Sharps, Pixley Ltd., Samuel Montagu Ltd., Mase Wespac Ltd. and M. Rothschild & Sons." ( L.A. TimesWashington Post, 12/29/86 )
http://www.retina.net/~jeremiah/economics.html

You know that at this price a dollar up or down is only 1/3 of one percent change? Now on the other hand the sudden surge in Palladium price is different! At the time of writing Palladium is more than Platinum. IMHO

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980518/market/markets10.html
Australian commodity prices fell to their lowest level for four years on Friday in reaction to the economic and political chaos in East Asia, especially in Indonesia, a sliding Chinese economy with rising fears of a currency devaluation and an Indian economy rattled by the fallout from nuclear blasts.

The commodity-sensitive Australian dollar slumped to hit fresh 12-year-lows against the US dollar.

While the weaker $A cushions Australian exporters from the lower commodity prices in $US and SDR terms, it does not help bolster faltering demand in Asia nor help maintain export volumes.

And Asia is important.

First up, economic growth drives commodity markets and "the major growth locomotive of the world economy during the 1990s has been the economies of non-Japanese East Asia," said Mr David Hale, chief economist of Chicago-based Zurich Kemper. This region has accounted for half the growth in world output since 1991, even though it has accounted for just 20 per cent of the world's GDP, he says. But no longer. Growth has been replaced by recession. The Washington-based Institute of International Finance forecasts Indonesian GDP in 1998 to fall 12.5 per cent, after a gain of 4.6 per cent last year, Malaysian GDP to fall 2 per cent after last year's 7.8 per cent increase, South Korean GDP to fall 5.5 per cent after last year's rise of 5.5 per cent and Thai GDP to fall 7 per cent after last year's 0.4 per cent decline. While the booming US and European economies deflect some of the negative impact of Asia on commodities demand, it is clear commodities have been hit hard. Now, there are growing concerns about a further spread of East Asia's problems into China and nuclear-friendly India.

On Friday the Indian rupee fell to record lows against the $US. And China's economy is slowing. Chinese GDP is forecast to increase just 7 per cent this year, down from last year's 8.8 per cent and 9.7 per cent in 1996. Also, with the hefty devaluations throughout the rest of Asia, China is becoming increasingly uncompetitive, and already Chinese export growth is slowing. This, coupled with slowing growth, rising unemployment due to deregulation of State-owned enterprises and a deeply indebted banking sector, is why the market is increasingly concerned about a possible Chinese devaluation of the yuan.

"If China does devalue, it will add another downward spiral to the Asian situation and raise fears of financial systemic collapse," said Mr Dinsa Mehta, managing director, global commodities, with Chase Manhattan in New York.

But that's the macro picture. For Australian commodity exports specifically, Asia is crucial.

As a whole, East Asia ( including China and Japan ) takes 58 per cent of Australian merchandise exports ( see pie chart for breakdown ) . Little wonder the $A is under so much pressure as problems escalate in this region.

Looking at individual commodities, Australia's reliance on East Asia is unnerving. Last year, 90 per cent of Australia's steaming coal exports went to East Asia, 67 per cent of coking coal exports, 80 per cent of iron ore exports, 65 per cent of minerals and energy exports, 90 per cent of gold exports, 67 per cent of sugar, 90 per cent of cotton, 68 per cent of beef and veal, 88 per cent of live cattle exports, 49 per cent of wool, 90 per cent of aluminium and 64 per cent of its steel exports.And the impact? Not pretty so far. Early next month, first-quarter trade and growth numbers will be released and are expected to be poor. No wonder Mr Howard is shooting for an early election.

"We anticipate about an $8 billion current account deficit for first-quarter '98," said Mr Michael Workman, international economist with the Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. This is $2.2 billion more than the fourth-quarter 1997 deficit, almost double the corresponding first- quarter '97 deficit of $4.5 billion, and compares with last year's total current account deficit of $18 billion. Sure, a lot of this bad news is factored into the $A now and also into commodity prices. But the wildcard is China, and to a lesser extent India. If these countries get dragged deeper into Asia's imbroglio, get set for a second tsunami.

We all thank you!

ABSA Mocatta's commentary on the gold market for the week ending 15 May is now available at http://www.drd.co.za

Not really, their market has been the only one on the European board that has fallen. Friday saw new 52 week lows, followed by this mornings 12 % decline. I've got a sneaky feeling we could see quite a gold rally today.
Why would the Russian market be collapsing if something wasn't a foot there. A economic collapse there could really be a problem - probably deflationary.e

This world is getting a little spooky, with only the dollar rising - if gold gets up on the day and should be so bold as to close above Friday's, high, I'd have to get, well, bullish??!!.

.

I've been thinking along the same line of questioning you're doing this morning. Add the skying pladium market to the warning signs about Russia. The bells have been going off for months, but what are they signaling? Total anarchy? Military takeover? ?????

you seem to be in the eye of the tornado, right now . ( literally speaking )

_______________________________________________________________________

SPIKE ALERT !

Please ignore any large spikes up or down. If they appear on this chart, consider it an example of what happens when software programming code is not properly documented. The closing price of silver on May 15, 1998 was $5.57.

Major changes are currently underway to ensure that all data displayed at Kitco is consistently accurate and reliable.

________________________________________________________________________

Palladium took that $30 spike and now has retreated. I bet there is a story out there on Russia. Probably denied. The boys in the comex pits will have it be sure and we'll see which way if any they take these markets in a few minutes. Soth African gold stocks down near their lows off 1.2%.

Thanks, but I'm only a conduit for this information - 'tis nothing as compared to your herculean efforts.

No wind just surrounded by dark clouds.

Oz is not sitting in a pretty position.
Our export market is in big trouble.
And the spenders haven't realized
What is looming.

I know many people whose livelyhoods
Are disappearing.
Liquidity will soon start to dry up.

Not a comfortable feeling
When we've had it so good.

I can get you the website and am somewhat impressed by this co. I say it is a good gamble. Have to go out , but on return will supply details that I have, Charlie

Sorry to take so long...wife just broke her ankle and just got back from emergency.Panda, thanks for the url... Reify my original comment was "who needs charts' or something like that.. I thought all would get a chuckle out of it. I particularly liked the N.Y. platinum Futures which was "bullish" with "possible Crash" but in a "Breakout Mode." BTW Yes I do look at the charts ...that's why this struck my funny bone.

By the end of this week America will come to the realization that our President has commited Treason. His treason has endangered this country more than any other act of treason in history. What's most disgusting is that Monica was a bigger story. I'm flabergasted! Will we glow in the dark before Congress acts?

1. Story about the pressure put on independent security analysts on Wall Street, resulting in loss of objectivity.Page 1.
2. Japanese brokers report losses. Page A14.
3. A night of horror unfolds in Jakarta. Page A15. ( ethnic violence story )
4. Time will tell if IMF helped or wrecked Indonesia ( page A19 )

In about 20 minutes, U.S. financial markets open. This has the potential to be a sell-off day for equities. But, since all economic forecasters have 2 hands, on the other hand - - - - - - -

forgot to ask earlier.

Essay by Joseph Farah ( executive director of Western Journalism Center )
on Op -ed page A22 of WSJ.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Indonesia-Suharto.html

Spot palladium missed topping platinum by just $4 this AM.

It will rise above, to become briefly

The most precious of all metals

Indeedy

or is it me just watching too closely.

BILL'S TREASON - its interesting observing the US there doesn't seem to be much care about the Chinese military secrets. Probably too complicated an issue. The Americans really want to love to hate BC. They can rant and rave about his sexual shinanigans but something like military secrets is far too complicated. Bill Clinton will get past this one too. What didn't they put all the sensitive stuff and put it into a box and blow it up into space. What's all the noiise about.

Well the Kitco quotes have stopped.

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/98/05/18/timbizbiz01016.html?1733620
G8 LEADERS yesterday urged China not to trigger a fresh economic crisis in Asia by devaluing its currency.
"We recognise that by not devaluing its currency it has contributed to the process of restoring stability to the region,"
Mr Blair added, however, that the G8 was aware that Asia as a whole was still a long way from recovery although "progress is being made".
Rumours have resurfaced in the past week that China could be on the verge of making a devaluation. The speculation prompted nervousness in the Hong Kong markets and forced a temporary rise in the former colony's interest rates to help to protect its own currency, the Hong Kong dollar.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No wonder they are concerned.
In the previous article ( AFR )
It was stated that a devaluation of China's Yuan
Could lead to a financial meltdown.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Blair admits failure on debt relief package
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/98/05/18/timfgnfgn01004.html?1733620
'Campaigners blamed Japan and Germany for their continuing resistance'

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP ) -- The leaders of Indonesia's Parliament
will ask President Suharto to step down, the speaker of the upper
house said today.

At a news conference, Parliament speaker Harmoko said the five
factions in Parliament would meet Tuesday to ask that Suharto, who has
led Indonesia for more than three decades, to resign.

Violence the past week, triggered by an economic crisis that has pushed
up food and fuel prices, has left at least 500 people dead and loosened
Suharto's hold on this Southeast Asian nation of 200 million people that
he has ruled over for 32 years.

Before I leave, I have to give a hearty second to both of you by Silverbaron's comment. Thanx a bunch, Charlie

For those of you frustrated with prices:

Accurate live quotes can be found at

http://www.MONEX.com/prices.html

All prices are SPOT

Updates are live during NY market hours

OK

WSJ Abreast of the Market column. Page C1.

well, well, well !

No news yet.
You know what kids are like in letting parent know where they are.
He may ring in a week - who knows.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980518/co_canyon__1.html

Given the political and economic events in Asia, the POG should be rising! This is more evidence that gold is not a commodity, it's political. There seems to be an agenda to keep the POG just below $300.
I expect any attempt to rise will be thumped today on COMEX. They will throw paper at it, and on COMEX, paper weighs as much as gold. IMHO
I wish it was not so. My prediction is gold stays at $300 until the
gold backing of the EURO is announced. The good news is that if gold stays put, it should support gold equities on the markets as all others on the DOW etc tank. Also IMHO.

or all of the above. Talk around MOT is that the Chinese missles we're possibly piggybacking spy stuff. Bill signed THAT agreement but will place the blame on Ron Brown. Yes, Boys and girls, somehow he'll wiggle out of it.Besides......who cares? Buy Mounties,silver bags,some cash on hand for the compost is hitting the fan.

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/default.htm

The Strong US Dollar is an impediment to Gold, When Dollar falls, Gold will likely rise dramatically. If the XAU is weak today, then we need to be patient FOR SOME TIME. If XAU is Strong, Well then things may be on a turn around for us..Finally..I hope and pray..

rhody: Another way of looking at gold's stability in the face of possible trouble is that it is being treated as a commodity at the moment. Did Nickel copper or aluminium rise---not as far as I know.

Hopefully we should be rewarded for our patience with the metal..

Show some Balls..

I am optimistic that the future price of GOLD is uncertain !

If I wasn't, where would it be ?

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo................

fall ?

http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/DailyNews/chinajobs980518/index.html
Chinese leaders have warned workers to brace for further lay-offs, even as concern over labor-related unrest mounts.

Those firms are now in trouble, drowning under bloated payrolls and heavy debts. The burden on state coffers and banks has forced communist leaders to abandon earlier pledges of cradle-to-grave job security.

"The mounting number of people laid off by state enterprises is an unavoidable stage in the course of reform and development," Zhu was quoted by state-run media as saying.

Zhu said it was 'of great importance' for stability that jobs are found for laid-off workers and that their basic living standards are maintained.

Pensions also must be paid on time, and anyone who embezzles, wastes or misuses pension funds will be 'severely punished,' it added.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It is Gloabal economy isnt it, then how can US be unique and detached to everything else.

If the money is being consistently withdrawn from Global equities, WHERE THE HECK IT IS GOING TO ??????????????????????????????????????????????

Gravity, my dear chap, Gravity..............

What goes up.......

Goldbugs our time may come, Yet.

Shorts, you paper barons, Burn..Baby..Burn..
Your shenanigans has not helped anyone.

Lynch Soros at Jakarta square and Hang Camdesseus by the Balls in a bangkok Brothel..

Have you beenn drinking in those pubs in Kalgoorlie again ? I love a Scottish sense of humour.

You may purchase silver bars at near spot prices from Merrill Lynch or likely any other broker. They will keep the silver bars for you or you may take delivery. You must pay a storage fee if you leave the silver bars with Merrill Lynch. Otherwise, you must pay a delivery fee. Either way, it is a good way to purchase silver at or near the spot price.

"Have you beenn drinking..............."

I take it that this represents North American spelling.......

Or, have you been drinking ?

Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000
Subject: Nation's Bank Customer Service Rep Deceiving The Public
Date: Friday, May 15, 1998 4:34 PM
Posted by Paul Milne

Earlier this week, my wife's great Aunt called her local branch of Nation's Bank to ask about compliance. The customer service rep assured her that the bank was compliant. But on top of that she offered that all of the two digit dates had been converted to four digits.

I called up the local branch in Boca Raton Florida and got a hold of one customer service representative, Ashoo Oberoi. ( 561 451 9718 ) I asked her very pointedly whether the bank was compliant or not, not ifs ands or buts. She told me categorically that all Nation's Bank branches were fully, 100% compliant. I asked her again to make sure that there was no mistake. Not 'on track', not 'working hard', not 'taking the problem seriously'. Nope. She flat out stated that the
bank was 100% compliant and that if I gave her my address, she would send me the info in writing.

Big Mistake.
Then I asked for her Boss's name. She gave me the Head High mucky-muck, one Jackie Brabum ( 813 224 3953 ) . I asked Jackie about the status of compliance and she said that the bank was not yet compliant. She was very surprised to hear that one of their customer service people was of the opposite impression. I asked her how she thought that the branch customer service people could have come up with an understanding that the bank was compliant. She had no idea.

I told her that, along the line, this was not a simple mistake, but that someone was lying. Not an error. Lying. She promised that she would get to the bottom of it and make sure that it did not happen again. LOL [lots of luck - note: it did happen again, TO ME! -Y2k Weatherman]

I did not leave it there. I called the branch back and asked to speak to the manager, Keith. We went through the whole rig-a-ma-roll and he was flabbergasted to hear that someone had said that the bank was compliant.

He said that he could not figure out what her 'motive' would be to give bad info. I said that her motive was not in question and that I did not care to discuss it. I only wanted to discuss the facts, and that was that his customer service rep assured me in no uncertain terms that the bank was compliant. I did not care why she said it, only that she did. We both agreed that Ashhoo may have been given bad information from someone else, but that someone was lying someplace.
I told him that I would not let it go. I wanted to know where the info came from. Period.

He promised that he would call back in less than an hour. That was forty five minutes ago.
Fifty five minutes ago.
An hour ago.
No response.

Called him back. Mealy mouth double talk about how Ashoo really meant that they were making progress towards completion. Blah blah blah blah blah. Nope. I quizzed her and painted her into a box. "Are you done? Complete? End of story? Not making progress, getting it done, almost there, but ABSOLUTELY UNEQUIVOCABLY finished." "Yes Sir", she told me, "Absolutely done."

More mealy mouth double talk. I thanked him for his time, and hung up. 99.9% of all bank customers would not have known how to get answers from the bank and would have been assured that the bank was compliant. They would have had one more reason to remain Pollyannas about Y2K because some bank told them that they were compliant.

THIS IS WHY YOU CAN NOT TRUST ANY BANK AT ALL WITH YOUR MONEY. PERIOD.
They will emphatically tell you that they are compliant when they are not. And they will never tell you that they will not make it when they find out.
---
Y2k Weatherman verifies the story:

In order to check out this story, I called Ashoo at Nation's Bank. A customer service rep named Scotty answered and told me Ashoo was on another call. I asked Scotty if Nation's bank was Y2k complaint. Her exact words, "Yes we are." I then asked, "Are you absolutely sure?" and she decided to check further.

After about 2 minutes on hold, Scotty came back and said they had been discussing this on Friday ( I guess they remembered Paul Milne calling ) and then referred me to Jackie Brabum, the person Paul Milne was referred to. Based on this validation, I'm convinced this story is 100% true just as it was related above. I agree with Paul Milne's advice, and the same information applies to all your public utilities.

DOW UP 30 and Dollar up too.. USA is operating in a sealed tight compartment or What ? How is it a GLOBAL economy, if nothing effects USA

High and Steady DOW will agian give a lease of life to global equities for a day or Two, BUT FOR HOW LONG. Gold seem to be tanking contrary to ALL LOGIC..

June gold hitting resistance at 302 this morning after falling below earlier. XAU dropped sharply perhaps indicating thinking that gold won't make it over 302 today.

to all
Silver is really weak. I believe a slight break of 5.40
will guickly take it to $5.1-5.2. The gold/silver ratio
made a new recent high .. I believe 57/1 which is a 50
% retracement is pretty well on the cards. Also the $
looks to be firming somewhat. Do you really see gold
moving up in the face of this??

way to purchase physical silver. You get solid value for your money and in the event of a complete financial meltdown you have a signicant store of value to make small purchases.

Call Russ Savage at Jefferson Coin - 800-593-2585 - he is an excellent fellow and he will be able to help you. Tell him Tolerant told you to call.

Namaste'

Erotic is when you use a feather.

Kinky is when you use the whole chicken.

Och aye the nooooooooooo................

TSE and other Canadian markets closed today.

An English taxidermist is sweating his way through the Australian outback when he comes across a bar. He staggers in between the beer swilling locals and in his well educated voice asks the bartender, "May I have a gin and tonic, please, my good man."

One of the locals says to his mates, "Geez, cobbers, what kind of a f**king man's drink is that?"

Then, turning to the Englishman, "Hey! You! Yes you, you f**king Pom! Gin and f**king tonic -- are you some f**king kind of a poofter or something?"

"Ac...actually," the englishman, terrified, replies, "I'm a taxidermist."

"Oh yeah? And what's a taxidermist then?"

"I mount d..d..dead animals."

"It's alright, cobbers," says the local, turning to his mates,

"He's one of us!"

Rest of the World mean nothing to you - SUCK ALL THE MONEY FROM THE WORLD
AS IT IS FLIGHT TO QUALITY.

THE WHOLE GOLD THING STINKS, WALL STREET HAS GOT US ALL IN THE WORLD BY THE BALLS...IF GOLD TANKS THIS WEEK, AGAIN..GOD HELP US ALL

From my post 4/26/98

Silver will drop below 6 before another run at 7.

Palladium will rise above platinum in the next couple weeks and, for the first time ever, be the most precious of the metals.

Platinum will follow palladium and spike above 500 before settling in a 450 - 600 range for the next couple years.

From Today:

Seems the magic happened overseas overnight:

Palladium overtakes platinum while gold idles

06:44 a.m. May 18, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, May 18 ( Reuters ) - Palladium prices leapfrogged platinum for the first time ever on Monday, reaching a fresh all-time high on the way, as this year's Russian supply delays caused further heat in futures markets.

Palladium was fixed at $407.00 an ounce, up on Friday afternoon's previous record of $392.00, while platinum was at $403.00, unchanged from its previous fix.

Yen-based palladium futures in Tokyo had earlier ended limit-up for the fifth consecutive trading day for all months bar the limitless spot May contract, as buying overwhelmed selling, traders there said.

Palladium's price rise, the second year running it has moved sharply on Russian export problems, has increasingly brought questions from including car catalyst manufacturers, electronics companies and in dentistry.

"The move is already causing some switching of applications - from alloys to gold-based ones in dentistry for instance,'' brokers GNI said in a report.

"However, the big move is likely to be in the auto sector, where palladium catalysts were introduced when the price ratio against platinum was at least two to one or three to one,'' GNI added.

Palladium-based car catalysts are used to cut noxious gas emissions in vehicle exhausts. Palladium's rise above platinum is the culmination of a rally which began at the turn of the year, when palladium was near $200.00 while platinum was above $360.00.

Russia, the world's main palladium supplier, has failed to ship a single ounce this year, causing sharp spikes and corrections as both consumers and those selling exchange-traded palladium futures have had to scramble for metal.

Tokyo futures trade on Monday again saw those with short positions in nearby contracts looking to square their books.

``Investors with palladium shorts continued to cover their positions as it is totally unclear when Russia will resume exports,'' said one Tokyo trader.

Russia's platinum group metal ( PGM ) export agent, Almazjuvelirexport ( Almaz ) ,had yet to tell customers in Japan, a major user of palladium, when it will visit to negotiate 1998 supply contracts, traders

Indeedy

Not everyone makes it to the lifeboats. Buy it on the way down and keep buying.

( opening the envelope ) and it is a tie !

Should be TANKS not takes...if I only had a brain!

good article RJ. Perhaps some will understand that article you just posted and will make the switch before the rest of the world does. Me.......well, I will be riding the tsunami all the way to shore.......one hell of a ride...........INDEEDY.

away...to squirrel AWAY plat hoards....ohmy.



GET REAL....The best joke is the price of GOLD

You said,

"Gold seem to be tanking contrary to ALL LOGIC.."

No so. The public has only a vision of gold as a hedge against inflation, and ( for now ) they see no inflation. Their logic is part of their life experience, and this should not be completely discounted.

All here know that gold is a store of value, a hedge against crisis and chaos, and is NOBODY ELSE'S LIABILITY. The public will learn this, and they too will then turn to gold, but not until it is obvious that their paradigm is incorrect and there is no other reasonable alternative - when everything else is going down.

In 1997 when the Muslim nation of Malaysia's currency, the ringgit, fell, Prime Minister Mahathir Bin Mohammed publicly blamed George Soros, one of the world's largest currency speculators for causing the fall of his country's currency. He also blamed the practice of currency trading, calling it "unnecessary, unproductive and immoral." He added, "It should be stopped, it should be illegal."

In addition to Malaysia, the Muslim nation of Indonesia also suffered an enormous fall in the value of its currency due to currency speculation and trading. These currency fluctuations have caused billions of dollars and many jobs to be lost. But, is it possible to end currency trading, as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed has suggested? Yes, according to economist Jude Wanniski of Polyconomics, Inc.

Mr. Wanniski told Final Call: "It is possible to end currency trading, but only if the whole world is on a gold standard. If the whole world is on a gold standard, you essentially have one currency. Karl Marx said it best when he said that, when the world is on a gold standard then each currency is like a different suit of clothes on the same body. If we could get all the currencies of the world linked up to each other then there would be no need for currency trading.

Mr. Wanniski's point stresses the main strength of the gold standard-its stability. In the gold standard there are no major fluctuations that can be exploited by the speculating activities of men like Mr. Soros as well as the big industrial and financial interests of this world. It is this concept of stable money that is being called for throughout the Islamic world.

Dr. Muhammad Umer Chapra, economic adviser to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, wrote of the importance of stable currency values in his book , "Towards a Just Monetary System."

"Stability in the value of money should be an indispensable goal in the Islamic frame of reference because of the unequivocal stress of Islam on honesty and fairness in all human dealings.
Two-part article: Toward an Islamic Gold Standard
http://www.finalcall.com/perspectives/gold1-6-98.html

John Disney_A: Forgive the spelling and memory, but the best horse I ever saw in Australia was a beautiful grey called Gunsynd, or some such spelling. Believe he unfortunately was a gelding. He was capable of running from 6 furlongs up to long distance races. A beaut he was and had a great awareness, or presence. This was back in 1972-73.

Silver just broke 5.40 .. Woops ...

Clumsy typing ( again )

No so = Not so.

we have information not available to the general public.

We have an unusual opportunity rarely given investors: our currency is unrealistically over-valued by the market, which allows us to purchase gold at a 50 - 60% discount ( based on one ounce coin costs in Europe ) . This sort of leverage is given to few and only rarely. One almost feels guilty!
bbl

Burn every damn book on Economics, laws of Demand & Supply, Inflation, Money Supply, Global inter dependence and s&*t like that..

The World is bowing to the God of Mammon and Baal and salivate on usury and grand world financial deception at the cost of poor branding Soros "The World's Greatest Philanthropist" as he was captioned on Time Cover Story when he was screwing SE Asia in the same time frame as Lewinsky was blowing Willie on the Tax payer's clock.

Gold, the supposed honest money is touted as snake oil by media, while US debt sold to the world as only means of financial salvation for the entire Globe.

USA / IMF /World Bank / Soros nexus is screwing the world in the manner reminiscent of 'Sodom and Gomorah'

The World feeds on Hollywood's silicone breast that has no milk but look full.

Excuse my outburst, I am seething..........

The XAU certainly seems to be leading gold down this morning. With our Canadian markets closed for the Queen's birthday selling gold stocks is out except if you hold gold stocks listed also on the NYSE or NASDQ. Placer Dome, Kinross and TVX are all in that category, but down very little at this point. With any luck the XAU will hit resistance around 79/80 and bounce back up for tomorrow, so nothing lost.

Good Article on "Asian Contagion"
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Tuna is seldom able to defeat the Shark, Law of Nature, I guess...

The XAU is now down into that quircky zig zag bottom of last Thurs. I expect it to hold in here.

You're allowed to be angry and depressed, but not Frustrated.

people have no clue. The world is not going to change, people are not going to change. What can change is your buying gold with worthless dollars and the manner in which you live your life in the future.

Suharto may resign in a week if his 4 conditions are met. I hope that Islamic Dinar govt forms.., Soon, took 18 months to oust Sukarno by Suharto.., kinda slow at this there..

Pakistan do your tests, India in league with Israel orchestrated just a slap on the wrist. Pakistan remember that USA froze your $ 600 Million and did not deliver F-16's inspite of getting payment by the act of congress. Noone is your friend in usa..

Now go on out there and BUY!!!

HenryD

Kind sir, what does your crystal ball reveal as the low for silver near term ( the next few weeks ) ? Might it dip below $5.00?

left with politics, manipulation. This is not a new situation. Our masters were facing a choice between an early correction and slow deflation of the bubble ( with negative voter reaction ) and postponing the correction and having a crash. They have chosen crash. One time-old strategy of right-wing politics is the "create a crisis, and then fix it"
strategy. Clinton may be seeking a second mandate for his party based on
the economic ruin of hundreds of millions. You may question my clssification of Clinton as 'right-wing'. From a Canadian viewpoint, both Republican and Democrat policies are pretty right wing. Listen not to what they say, but watch what they do.

lit, What in the God's name can move Gold. It is consistent depreciating
asset from TWO DECADES now. Life is Short, What good is it when not on Time...

Can anyone give any sane reason WHY GOLD SHOULD BE DOWN TODAY ?????

I almost agree with midas and DOW 10,000. We must not forget the wealth transformation phase that is about to occur. All one has to do is to look back into history and you would be able to see that every major ( unrealistic ) bull run has been followed by severe conciquences such as what has happened in Mexico, Japan, Indoneasia, Hong Kong, and ECT... The fact is that the investors on Wall Street are going to experiance their first real financial castration, but because they are young and determined they will spend the next twenty years re-building from scratch. Those who went against the masses will quietly sit back and enjoy their prosparity and begin capitolizing on colasping real goods prices furthering even more their portfolio's. In conclusion what I meant by the DOW 10,000 glitch, is that according to an article in the Investors Business Daily, the Dow is only capable to read 4 digits. As you can see the # 10,000 has 5 digits, and according to the article this will cause the DOW to crash. Yet I still think they are looking for excuses.

All:

Gold: Who is selling gold? Sure does look like Gold bullion is the way to go, doesn't it? It is ridiculously cheap. Silverbaron -- I liked your comments about why gold is behaving so poorly -- because the average individual only considers gold as a hedge against inflation. The idea that gold is a hedge against 'fiat' currency ( debt ) implosion is a more subtle one, only to be understood by Kitcoites. Wouldn't it be nice if the WGC advertized gold like diamonds are advertized: instead of 'Diamonds are Forever', 'Own gold -- it is no one else's liability'.

India: They do have the hydrogen bomb. That explosion was for China's benefit, as you might expect, not Pakistan.

WJC and Chinagate: So WJC met with the daughter of one of the highest ranking members of the Chinese military, who just happens to be a select member of the Chiness Communist party. I wonder if WJC realizes that those Chinese nuclear missles pointed at Washington DC are now alot more accurate, complements of the US corporate desire to save several hundred million dollars on Iridium and other communications satellite launches.

The markets: My guess is that the US dollar and the US markets will recover fairly soon and rally again due to 'flight to safety'. Gold and silver will languish for a time, until the pros quietly start to head fot the exits. I still can't tell for sure if deflationary or inflationary forces are daominant -- but for now I am following D.A.'s assessment.

Mexico: Forrest/brush fires are now so severe that smog alarms are spreading in Texas. Just a thought -- Is this to be a ElNino-related effect, repeating the SEAsian debacle? If so, deflation, not inflation may be next. It all depends on how fast AG can turn the crank.

D.A.: Comments?

is merely awakening from a long deep sleep. When it moves it will make huge jumps. Buy some BEARX and wait. Hold physical metal and buy more if you are able as it drops in price.

Oh, BEARX is run by David Tice and is short the market. It will go beserk as the market tanks.

Now, one more Giant GULP to ya...you can find the BEARX banner on vronsky's site, click on the digest page...

FWIW you got my blood boiling with your commentary this morning and I full well understand your point of view...soooooooooooooooooooooooo...

One more Giant GULP....of tequila to ya..........relax and profit from the mistakes of our "leaders" and the apathy of the masses...

If the 'new world order' really exists, and is made up of the world's most powerful and wealthiest men, then perhaps the price of gold is one of 'their' barometers for gaging how much control they still have??

Just a thought from the farside this morning...

Good luck!

If ANOTHER is credible on this forum, I recall his saying that just before the wheels come off the world financial system, that gold and the US$ would both rise together. Perhaps we should count our blessings.

http://www.usagold.com - click on Daily Quotes

MARKET UPDATE ( 5/18/98 ) AM ---- Gold was quiet this Monday morning as it has been for the past several Monday mornings. There's little news save palladium's astonishing performance. It now costs more to buy an ounce of palladium than it does an ounce of platinum which does not make sense since it takes roughly 3 ounces of palladium to perform the same catalytic function performed by platinum. ( I know this because years ago I did some work with Dr. Herbert McKinney on palladium, who did much of the metallurgy work for IBM in its early days. Palladium was used there for plating relays, etc. in their computers and McKinney was an expert on palladium's and gold's uses in the computer industry -- in fact he developed much of it. ) The point here is that industrial users could switch to platinum for most catalytic functions at less a cost. This pricing has to do with market action. The shorts are scrambling and this is what I believe is going to happen in the gold market once all the facts are out. Since only a handful of investors have actually purchased palladium, this activity can best serve us in terms of what it teaches us. When a short position is squeezed prices rise rapidly. The gold short position in the options markets and over the counter derivatives market in London is enormous. Much of that is uncovered. If a shortage of yellow bullion develops like this shortage of white bullion, there will be an explosion in the price. The lesson here is to accumulate while you can and wait for reality to manifest itself. That's it for today. If anything interesting happens we'll be back. Have a good day my fellow goldmeisters.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100x.htm

The gold they long

( a dollar they short )

Go gold they say

( drop dollar exhort )

Thousands an ounce!

( pennies a buck )

Don't wait to pounce!

( the buck's outta luck )

Gold is cheap!

( the buck's overpriced )

And beautiful too!

( George needs a 'doo )

Back up the truck!

( dump all your cash )

Can't wait a moment!

( if it burns do it fast )

Didn't you see overseas!?

( they look pretty cheap )

It's coming here next!

( Giant Frog's gonna leap )

Gold is oppressed!

( the dollar is free? )

They're keeping it down!

( and Elvis ate three )

They can't do it long!

( but they caaAAHHNN do it short )

I'm hanging on!

( for bugs that's a quart )

Where do I buy unreportable?

( to hide a loss? )

How do I hide in my plumbing?

( use mental floss )

We need change in perceptions!

( pocket change I perceive )

I bought five more Maples!

( his tree he did leave )

It's the CIA!

( and maybe your wife )

There's still time!

( place a call on a life )

The Fed's on the loose!

( chewed through the restraints )

There's no tomorrow!

( then no more complaints )

I think that is correct. US Dollar up, Gold up, Oil up - all at once.

http://WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-05/18/011l-051898-idx.html

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100z.htm

REF: goldfevr@pacbell.net ( Asian Question - at CBS Market-Watch )

Many thx for a very informative article. In my mind the most important comment was the following - which confirms John Kutyn's long standing views of the economic, financial and monetary chaos and turmoil
in Asia.

"As other regional currencies sink relative to the dollar -- and thus relative to both the H.K. dollar and the yuan -- China's ability to compete in export markets becomes increasingly threatened."

"And if China devalues its currency, Japan Inc.'s exports to China will be
threatened. The Chinese won't have the buying power to pay for Japanese
goods"

orders are based on the entire DOW index. Surely stop loss orders are on individual stock basis. Although wouldn't putting a stop loss on Birkshire Hathaway be impossible with a 4 digit computer limit?????

All: It is my impression that all White House visitors were to be carefully screened, to prevent certain individuals from free access. It seems that WJC has made sure that any individual can enter the White House, as long as they have money.

Perhaps the question could be rephrased: Are there any individuals who could not enter the White House, as long as they did not threaten the safetry of the president? I doubt it. I would guess that horns and a tail would not be enough for refusal of admission.

If I worked for the FBI, CIA or Secret Service, and I was responsible for security at the White House, I would be going nuts.

The historians are going to have a field day with WJC, and it will not be complimentary.

I know of a few dozen arouund here who are what I describe.
Most of 'em are Vietnam or WWII or Korea Vets. Unlike Klinton.
Some have GOLD and SILVER, They all have lots of rifle cartridges!

deviousness.. I want some form of certainity for my limited means. I would not understand nor able to fight derivative games that emanate from
infinite resources, Fidelity may have a Trillion dollars to make markets.
Remember the Rat in fidelity that manipulated Micron, the world's largest maker of chips and left with honour. No Rich man was ever had to undergo Capital Punishment in the History of USA. They walk away if they have Lawyer's. An honest person is 'stupid' while a Liar or Cheat is 'smart' in this world

If you inquire about Y2K compliance, youll get to a person designated as a Year 2000 Compliance Manager. Typically, this is a manager that no one else wants in their department. Usually this person has a background in programming.
Most companies will send you a form letter that says something like We appreciate your interest. We certainly plan to be in business in the year 2000 and will have all of our business systems fully compliant by then.... I have written these form letters for several companies.
DONT tell them that youre only a concerned customer. To get their attention, DO NOT tell them exactly why youre making the inquiry, but casually mention something that makes them think that youre:

- A reporter doing a survey of how companies are doing
- A major stockholder
- An investigator for a mutual fund that owns a large amount of their stock
- Beginning some type of screening process that will be turned-over to the FDIC
- That you are posting their responses on the Internet
ALSO: Tell them that their competitors have given you information regarding their systems... Do they have some sort of problem that they dont want to talk about?

Generally, the process of Year 2000 compliance is a three step process.
1. Inventory: Compile a list that includes every component that may be in danger.
This includes every piece of hardware, every program. This is usually the toughest step.
Look at your PC, for example. If yours is more than a few months old, chances are that youve installed MS Office, screen savers, an internet connection, tax software, graphics software and a lot of other stuff. Exactly the same thing happens on corporate systems, except you have a larger number of people that are constantly changing financial and date-sensitive functions.
2. Assessment: Figure out which components need to be fixed.
This includes an extensive amount of testing. Most experts estimate that testing is usually about half of the overall Y2K effort.
3. Remediation: Implement the fixes.

Specific tough questions to ask:
1. What percentage of their mainframe CPU hardware must be replaced?
Its difficult to calculate a percentage if they dont have a clue what needs to be replaced. Most of the folks that are managing Y2K compliance efforts are programmers, with no experience with hardware or operating system issues.
2. What percentage of their networking hardware must be replaced?
Routers that are more than a couple of years old will need to be upgraded/replaced.
3. What percentage of their existing telephone systems are compliant?
PBXs that are more than a couple of years old will need to be upgraded/replaced.
4. Are they going to change the operating systems for their mainframe computers?
IBM and other companies have decided not to upgrade some of their old operating systems for Y2K compliance. If Microsoft said that Windows wouldnt work after 1999, wouldnt you begin making plans to use an Apple or some other type of PC? Exactly the same situation, but on a much larger scale.
5. Exactly when will their systems be fully compliant?
Unless you speak to a complete idiot, you wont get an answer to this.
Most CIOs have made commitments to be compliant by the end of 1998. No one will want to announce a variance from this. If they say December 1999, ask about the impact to government systems. The US governments fiscal year for 2000 begins 10/01/99.
If they give you any date, and then dont meet it, they could be sued if someone can prove that theyve been damaged.

Let us know how it goes with the bank. Send me an Email if you have any specific issues/questions: slog@hotmail.com
If there is ONE large company or government organization out there that is going to have their systems ready for Y2K, I haven't found it yet. Most companies are more concerned with merger and acquisition efforts. ( While doing some consulting work last year, one of the largest companies in the USA offered me a position to manage their entire Y2K efforts. They wanted me to relocate for the huge salary of $65k. Ha! )

This fall, I think that the Y2K issue will cause the proverbial stuff will hit the proverbial fan. Historically, October seems to be the month for stock market crashes....

.

Silver in freefall. $5.32 and falling. Yep, it's Monday.

period. Check out the Commodity Research Bureau information here. It's not a pretty picture. Actually, the precious metals are riding high. On this link, click the second line: CRB Futures Prices Indexes

http://www.crbindex.com/

CNBC reports that NY's Advance-decline line looking technically weak for 2 - 3 weeks. World markets are weak. Russia down nearly 12% and not even reported on the business news! Their 3rd day significantly down. This is very worrisome, as Russia is likely to be the next implosion. It appears to have been triggered by a small, contained military mutiny. If this is a rolling deflation we're seeing, plan to see more of the same. Don't look to see where the money is going, most of it is just dissapearing. They were only paper profits in the first place, they didn't really exist. Watch Brazil and Russia closely. If they pop, all our shoes are going to pinch.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

It remains to be seen if DOW holds up in the afternoon

July Silver is nearing the 5.10-4.90 down side objective...be prepared.

However, relief is on the way. The trade deficit is soaring and will
slow the U.S. economy. The Fed's next move will be down not up.
This could all accelerate if Japan collapses in this latest bout of
Asian flu.

All: I disagree with today's USAGold post on one item. And that is that a true gold shortage would not be allowed. That is the role of the LBMA to prevent. If they are shut down do to some irregularities of some kind, Istanbul or similar will take over. A few days later the LBMA will be up again, missing a few blacklisted clients.

But -- we might get the sudden news that the French are revaluing their gold to 150% of the current price, just as they did in the 70's. This news will probably be unexpected when it happens.

RJ and EB are right that if we really want to make money now ( short term ) , we should not be investing in gold. I am beginning to think more and more that deflationary effects are dominant in the world right now. This will be confirmed if Mexico and Venzueala implode next. If the script is to be as I suspect it is, the US markets will continue to rally for a time, and will be the last ones to go -- just like the sequence of events leading up to the great depression.

We Tsunami Gold surfers may not get quite what we expected -- we must be nimble.

Promethius: I share your concern about the CRY0. It is going the wrong direction for a gold rally. The forces of deflation could overwhelm AG's efforts to inflate the dollar. If so, gold bullion prices could go down again. If they go below $280/oz, I think some real fireworks will begin. On the other hand, a real Russian revolution could cause gold to skyrocket. We don't have to worry about the Russians selling gold. And the Europeans are very cognizant of the value of gold as an effective means of transporting wealth during times of economic instability.

Are you still expecting a decline in gold or might we see an upwards move once silver bottoms.

The use of palladium in vehicle anti-pollution catalysts surged by 31 percent in 1997 to 3.1 million oz, according to precious metals company Johnson Matthey. Total demand increased by 21 per cent to a record 7.46 million oz.

Yet the major supplier of palladium, Russia, suspended sales for six months, causing high prices and market turmoil. In its "Platinum 1998" Review, published today, Johnson Matthey forecasts that demand for palladium will rise substantially again this year.

Even more palladium will be used by the motor industry, which is under continued pressure to reduce emissions from new vehicles. Meanwhile, another interruption to Russian shipments from the beginning of 1998 left the market drastically undersupplied, and drove the price up to a record $390 in April.

A continued absence of Russian exports could easily send prices to new heights. Even when sales by Russia resume, Johnson Matthey expects that the strength of demand, and strategic rebuilding of stocks by consumers, will support the price above $250 per oz.

Supplies of platinum were stable in 1997 at 4.97 million oz, with a 26 percent fall in sales by Russia balanced by higher South African output.

Platinum demand rose by 5 percent to 5.20 million oz, principally due to rapid growth in platinum jewellery market, with many affluent young Chinese consumers preferring platinum to gold.

Johnson Matthey expects platinum demand in 1998 to increase by between 2 and 3 percent. "Demand is again likely to outstrip supply," says Alison Cowley, author of the Review. "Neither South African nor Russian producers have the flexibility to increase platinum output significantly in the short term."

However, the erratic pattern of Russian sales is likely to be the main influence on the price and Johnson Matthey forecasts that platinum will trade in a wide range, between $370 and $450, for the rest of 1998.

history for the past 8 years. In addition I see this as one of the reasons the gold price has languished. I say in the deflationary period we are now being faced with gold will go up...not down...

Is there some Durban Deep news today. Its up in spite of a lower gold price.

JTF.MIDAS AND ALL,
Anyone noticed once the time the GIANT...fell sharply today,nearly 13% now!!If this big guy separated,just emagine the global looks like?!Cheap sale for nuclear warheads..uranium..mafia..ect!
Wonder the world can stand so much troubles!
worried and tense...sleepless nite
regds

Whatever else is going down, we've got to remember the 40 trillion dollars worth of derivative trading each day. We've had wildcards before, but never one so overweighted to the other cards in the game. People don't sell their stocks when they hear bad news, they buy more derivatives as insurance. We see a huge difference between the market response to the Nixon and Clinton scandals, and at least part of if must be the influence of derivatives.

I'd be really interested in seeing a breakdown of derivative trading, how they compare in dollar amount to the underlying markets and currencies they influence. Anyone have a handle on it, or some informative links?

IDT - I would expect the low gold price will come sometime after silver bottoms...could be as long as a month.

Volume on Hecla has jumped dramatically in the last half hour. Started with a trade of over 500,000 shares at 12:07 EST.

This forwarded message didn't have a copyright notice, but out of fairness I don't think we should copyright it either.

---------- Forwarded message ----------

Date: Mon, 18 May 1998 09:29:37 -0500 ( CDT )

From: "John C. Goodman- National Center for Policy Analysis"

ncpa@onramp.net

To: ncpa@onramp.com

Subject: NCPA Policy Digest

( snip )

ALL THAT GLITTERS IN THE HIGHWAY BILL

Fiscal affairs consultant Scott A. Hodge has a comparatively

inexpensive notion: gold-plating the nation's highway system. He

points out that the cost would be comparable to the $200 billion

plus to be spent under the highway bill now being hashed out in a

House-Senate conference committee.

First, experts informed him that it would cost about $30 per

square foot for heavy gold electroplate. Then Hodge took up his

calculator.

o With the typical lane in the Interstate Highway System

being 12 feet wide, and a mile having 5,280 feet, those

63,360 square feet could be gold-plated at a cost of $1.9

million for the mile.

o With 46,000 miles in the Interstate system as of 1996, it

would cost roughly $87.4 billion to gold-plate a single

lane the length of the system.

o Since that falls far short of the costs of the highway

bill, he threw in the nearly 27,000 miles of urban highway

in the National Highway System -- adding another $50.7

billion of gold-plated lane.

o Still falling short of what Congress wants to spend, Hodge

added another 40,000 miles of highway in the 84,700-mile

Rural National Highway System.

That brought the total roughly to what Congress is intent on

spending in the highway bill.

Source: Scott A Hodge, "Let's Gold-Plate the Roads -- Really,"

Washington Post, May 18, 1998.

For more on Federal Spending see

http://www.ncpa.org/pd/budget/budget.htm

( snip )

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980518.btl.congress.do.now.html

Russian rates up as market slides ( Friday 15th )
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/05/15/financial_news/russiamar_1.html

Also major flooding and mudslides in Tajikistan

http://www.insightmag.com/investiga/dnc1.html

Funny how there are lots and lots of sanctioned monopolies..in banking..in broadcasting ( in Toledo 2 companies own ALL the radio stations, government licenced no less ) Me thinks they are not after Microsoft they are after Microsofts money. Bill Gates hasn't paid off enough politicians. Flimsy charges to be sure. I prefer Netscape, I used Microsoft found the server way to expensive. When I cancelled MSN a big ugly virus hit my computer, and big crash took place, then it took three months to get MSN to stop taking money off my credit card. Some bills were $70.00 a month and I wasn't even on line with them. Sometimes the bigger they are the stupider they are. Big Brother doesn't have to protect me from Bill Gates, I'm a quick study. I need someone to protect me from Big Brother's monopoly.

Were there massive Russian gold sales 5-10 years back?



Also any recommendations on foreign gold backed currencies to have as diversification? Or is this a horrible idea? ( Physical money, not bank account )

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101g.htm

Meeting to be held in NY tomorrow morning, perhaps some good info can be extracted from its results. Press releases should hopefully follow meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980514/the_silver_1.html

tolerant 1; My thought is that the "mainstream press" has to chew on this a little longer until they can figure it out . As you and I know, it is not real complicated but, then again, most of those in the m.p. are not real smart either. These are the same people who go to all the cocktail parties with the politicians that they are "covering". Talk about a conflict of interest !

Europe isn't happy either

EU passes on Microsoft
Europeans 'concerned' by Windows 98 but will let U.S. authorities handle case

May 18, 1998: 7:55 a.m. ET

CNN: Target Microsoft

BRUSSELS, Belgium ( Reuters ) - The European Commission said on Monday it was not investigating Microsoft's bundling of its Windows software and its Internet Explorer browser, preferring to leave the issue to the United States.

But the European Union's executive was "cooperating very closely" with the U.S. Justice Department on the issue, a Commission spokesman said. The Justice Department and several U.S. states were poised to start formal lawsuits against Microsoft for allegedly abusing its dominant position, after talks collapsed at the weekend between the Department and the software giant.

"We have left the floor to the American authorities," Commission spokesman Stefan Rating said, adding that this was not because the EU anti-trust authority was unconcerned about bundling issues, but rather because its U.S. counterpart was better placed to deal with it.
Microsoft stock ( MSFT ) closed up 1/2 at 89-7/16 on Friday.
Currently @ 86 3/8

HighRise

My E-mail program Microsoft outlook disappeared ---Great technology? Nobody one day will be somebody ---Now using Netscape Crash after Crash ---Back when computers learn to talk to people
E-mail that might still work sun@ils.net

tactical error/blunder in flaming Israel with regards to her comments recently. The arrogant idiots in the White House have sewn the seeds of their own destruction.

The hard right in the US is just warming up and will become more than just the glowing ember seen in the media as of yet. Look for a massive campaign against the Clintonistas from all corners. This will begin to escalate in full the nearer the Coward Erect's trip to China gets.

America vs. the Clintonistas - those who do not join in risk being tied to the dirtbags in the White House, fear is a most excellent motivating factor. Add in the words traitor and treason and it should get real ugly.

We've just gone through a big pivot day for the XAU http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeXAU.htm A drop below 81.50 looks pretty bearish at the moment. She's going to move one way or the other here. That 81.50 needs to hold for any chance of a base at these levels.

Starr Adds Lawyers, Doubles Office Space

From Times Wire Reports

Independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr has hired 10 new lawyers and

more than doubled his Washington office space since January. U.S.

News & World Report said Starr's office rented an additional 7,400

square feet, which brings his operation's monthly Washington rent to

$43,186. Starr's inquiries, which began as a probe of Arkansas land deals

involving President Clinton and Hillary Rodham Clinton, have expanded to

include the president's relationship with former White House intern Monica

S. Lewinsky and the possible misuse of FBI files.

Copyright Los Angeles Times

The $5 1/4 was an intermediate support level.
After it was penetrated it went down to $5.
Got in at $5 1/16.
Expect it to close around $5 3/8.
Just technical.., nothing to worry.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/051898/politicst_18210.html

.

Carl: thanks for the comment. On checking the chart I see what you are saying. There is a downtrend line across the two May lows which will act as support in the present area for the XAU i.e. around 81.5. the next support I see is around 80.

Cyclist is expecting a basing over the next two weeks, then rise through the first two weeks of June followed by a big drop and strong upward movement starting in mid July. We will see. I am at least looking for a run up to 95 on the next leg ( Cyclist's June leg ) .

As I have read many posts over the past week or so, there are a lot of Kitcoites singing the blues and lamenting that AU has not taken off like a rocketship. The brief upturn for AU was just that - a brief upturn. Now, there's a brief downturn and we'll probably have another few waves back and forth. This will continue until we have a major shock to the current market forces at play out there. SO once again, the question most people have is -- why the upturn and now why the downturn? I think there are some macro trends for everyone to take into account and understand.

1. The current "Bull" Market is not a bull market - It is a MANIA! This will not end until all of the available capital out there is sucked into the vortex and consumed by the Tsunami of debt elimination. Keep in mind that both the South Sea Bubble and Tulipmania phenomena were manias that violated the economic physics of markets. Neither of these manias came to an end until they finally burst due to a lack of incoming capital to keep the ever expanding craze alive. When the same happens to the current "Bull" market, there will be a bursting of the mania bubble and this means a sudden shock to the equities markets - NOT A SOFT LANDING as so many talking heads would have you believe. And to "buy on the dips" will not be a valid strategy because such a strategy runs contrary to the physics of any mania market. If you study the Black Monday scenario of 29 and project it forward, it took another 26+ years for the DOW to recoup its value to the same levels prior to the precipitous drop. If you bought the dips as the talking heads of today recommend, then you'd have been bankrupt in only a few years ( and never made it to the 26 years necessary ) . [One source claims that it took 65 years ( factoring inflation ) for the DOW to recoup its '29 lows. --- I know that I can't afford to wait that long, so I'm not looking at buying the dips.]

2. Mutual Funds cannot abide ANY true gain in the PMs. Why? Because they are married to fiat currencies that are issued by CGs who inflate the currencies due to the demand for money. ( And right now, there is a tremendous demand for money to keep this "Bull" market going. So CGs issue more and more money in order to meet the demand to keep the market going up and going up. They issue more money to keep the fire burning real HOT !! Because this fire is great - just ask all of the broker and funds managers. ) Mutual Funds are COMPELLED to beat down PMs in order to keep the flow of money coming their way - fiat currencies are their life blood. Just like Dracula, they must continually drink the blood of their hosts ( investors ) in order to maintain 30%+ gains. Right now, there is NO OTHER PLACE TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT OTHER THAN THE STOCK MARKET / MUTUAL FUNDS. This is what every talking head spews out every day, as many times as possible. If PMs are allowed to take the wind out of the sail of Mutual Funds, then they will suddenly implode. So they must beat the PMs down at all costs - and I mean ALL COSTS. ( What's the big deal anyway, they only use paper to make paper trades to beat down the tangible and its not their money? So why do they care? ) .

3. Creation of Money ( how it comes into the marketplace ) . Currency is created by our demand for money - and right now there is a tremendous demand for money, because nobody "sees any inflation out there". Money is created out of thin air by CBs ( such as the FED ) when the demand for loans come in. Based upon the fraction system in place, Banks are able to lend out money as a multiplier of the money they have on reserve. So, if you have a checking account with a mandatory $500 minimum in order to get free-checking, then the bank is able to lend out $12,500. ( This is due to the Monetary Control Act of 1980 when banks were allowed to reduce reserves to only 4% ) . Think about it. If you're a bank, then why not offer free checking that costs you $5/month when you are able to make $85+ in interest from the $500 the account has on deposit. It's a slam dunk. --- So as long as there is plenty of demand out there for money, then the FED is very obliging in the creation of money. Because there is nothing to back the currency, such as gold, there are no restraints on the creation of money - save one - Interest Rates. As long as rates stay down, then more and more money is created by the demand for money ( borrowing ) . And the only mechanism that causes interest rates to go up is INFLATION. So, if there is no indication of inflation ( via the CPI ) , then the FED can lend out boatloads of cash. Because there is no AU out there to act as a governor, then the engine of fiat currency is able to go to a redline condition until it finally blows up in self-destruction. ( See the discussion of Inflation below ) .

4. CGs benefit BIG TIME !!! With the tremendous gains being made in the markets, CGs are getting the greatest windfalls of the century due to the taxes being generated by these gains. They have the greatest motivation to keep this thing going for as long as possible. So they respond to market demads for more money and they oblige by printing up more money so more will come their way. WHAT A DEAL! Every one wins. There are no losers. It's a new age. There are no consequences. And CGs dodge the bullets of increasing deficits and debt. But rather than taking the opportunity of salvation offered, they continue their spending and expansion with "surpluses" that don't really exist. They ignore the opportunity to heal their excesses. No, they go back to their drunken carousing of "welfare" excesses as they do even more to "care" for their constituents.

5. Inflation. The beauty of the current situation is that Inflation is not being reflected as it was in the 1970s and 1980s. My theory is based upon a phenomenon that has affected countries such as the US since the end WWII -- BABY BOOMERS. As we have seen for each stage of this phenomenon, there has always been a surge if demand created as the boomers migrate through life. The demand created by the boomers has always been reflected by price increases where their demand has been felt. First, it was a tremendous boom in the housing market and expansion of schools or anything related to children. Then, it shifted into collegiate education and the securing of employment. With employment, there was a surge of demand for all sorts of consumables as the boomers established themselves in life as adults. This created a surge in the CPI which became the single determiner of Inflation by the CGs. It was a convenient way to measure "Inflation" because this was the only place where inflation was being "felt" at the time. When CGs established the single definition of Inflation is being the CPI, then the public followed the mantra like lobotomized victims who continue to chant the same mantra over and over again - "only the CPI reflects Inflation". So now, the only definition of Inflation is the CPI. --- The dirty dark secret is that INFLATION IS REALLY BEING REFLECTED IN THE FORM OF ASSET INFLATION AND NOT THE CPI. Baby Boomers have shifted their locust-like consumption patterns to stocks, SUVs, upscale housing and the like. So now, real inflation is being stored in stocks, houses etc instead of immediate reflection in the form of price increases in the CPI. Just like a capacitor that will ultimately discharge a tremedous shock, when the attempt to sell inflated assets begins in large scale, then the mania will issue its own shock when it discharges and the value of assets will collapse. The question is - what will make the massive sell off begin? And will it be orderly? I think not. It is likely to be like the panic on the Titanic with massive selling - and it will occur before the majority has factored in the Boomer effect of retirement ( as they have factored as starting about 2003 or so ) .

6. No deflation in the West - right now. All of this baloney about the FED keeping interest rates down because of the fear of deflation is the greatest hoax of the 1990's. But no one will blow the whistle because there are too many vested interests to keep the charade going ( as per my discussion earlier - Mutual Funds and CGs ) . Think about it. If deflation was on our doorstep right now, you would see true deflationary functions at work. There would be a drop in the value of the following:

- Equities --Remember what you saw in Asia a few months ago
- Real Estate
- Autos
- Wages ( falling )
- Unemployement ( rising - and at a rapid pace )
- Defaults of loans by the droves.

If there is any question about the veracity of my statements, then all you have to do is to compare the US to Asia right now. Because Asia has ( and is continuing to experience everything that I have listed above ) . CGs are gleefully married to the CPI basis as a determiner of inflation because they don't have to raise interest rates and bring an end to this wonderful party. They do not realize that they are currently throwing gasoline onto the fire and it will blow back up in their faces. But the sudden flashes of economic activity and tax windfalls are a lot of fun right now -- so they dash on more gasoline.

7. If Deflation is so BAD then why is Inflation so GOOD? I find it absolutely amazing that deflation is the worst of the worst, and inflation is --- well -- not so bad, because we factor it into everything we do. I'm sorry, but everyone needs to wake up here. Lets look at the simple model of pH as a basis for this analysis. If Acid burns ( deflation ) and its at one extreme of the pH range, then a Base also burns ( inflation ) . Both extremes are bad because they both burn. SO -- if we need to take the most aggressive steps and active measures available to drive the stake through the heart of deflation, then we should also be taking the EXACT SAME STEPS TO DRIVE THE STAKE THROUGH THE HEART OF INFLATION. But we are not and we have not. ( As others on Kitco have stated before, there is inflation out there right now at a rate of 10%+. It is this inflation that is fueling the continuance of this mania market as funny money is being pumped in to give 30%+ returns. It is inflation that is giving the appearance of gains -- and I mean the APPEARANCE of gains ) . If I give you a wheelbarrow full of worthless paper then all you have is a lot of worthless paper. The only thing left to happen now in the asset markets, is the discovery that there is a lot of worthless paper being pumped around out there. I will return to my subject. If we are so concerned about deflation, then we should equally be concerned about 30%+ gains that continue and continue. It defies logic that a market can generate these kinds of returns without something funny going on. There is an important progression to understand. For continued 30% gains the following must take place. The DOW must:
1998 ---- 9200 expand to 12000
1999 ----12000 expand to 15600
2000 ----15600 expand to 20300
2001 ----20300 expand to 27000
2002 ----27000 expand to 35100 --- GET REAL!

A rise of this magnitude defies logic on legitimate growth. When the stock market returned 10% on average during the inflationary times of the 1960s through 1980s, then how can we get 30% returns with not inflation in the 1990s.

The 5 year sequence above reflects the NEW AGE of Nirvana that Bill Clinton and his entourage have brought to us. What the trend tells me is that we already have a tremendous amount of inflation out there and we have to continue this massive inflation in order to maintain "growth" ( really a mania and why the term mania is the proper term for this market ) .

8. When Deflation finally hits, it will become the mechanism to erase excess debt. Another part of the secret is that deflation must come. There must be a mechanism to eradicate the massive debt of CGs ( and private entities ) that has grown to unprecedented levels. As the laws of money demand, debt must be extinguished in some way. If you don't pay it off, then the things that you have bought with your borrowed money will lose their value. -- So ultimately, the excesses of your debt come home to roost and your assets are taken away from you. This law applies to CGs in the same way as it does for individuals. No one is exempt. The only difference is that Govt shifts its losses to the populace through gross devaluation and ultimately, Depression. To quote JD Davidson and Rees-Moog, "there will be a Great Reckoning". The so-called "surplus" of the US Govt is a total lie. There is no way that there is a "surplus" when you have $5.5 trillion in debt with a increasing interest debt of $450+ billion every year and growing. For you as an individual, there is no way that you could say that you had a $100 surplus on your ledger sheet when you actually had $1 million in debt. So, if a banker would double over with laughter at such a premise when you presented that arguement to him, then the populace should respond in kind when the US Govt claims the same kind of idiotic premise.

9. A temporary "containment" of Depression. The S&L debacle of 1992 was the beginning eruption of debt eradication. But at the time, any allowance of market forces to extinguish debt were viewed as being intolerable - and a policy of postponment was adopted by the US Govt. The multi-trillion dollar losses suffered due to bad investment decisions in the 1980's are real and they have not been fully factored as yet. They are temporarily being disguised and papered over with additional excesses during the 1990's. The "good credit" of the government is being continually depleted by the issuance of greater and greater amounts of fiat currency. Ultimately, it will all collapse from shear exhaustion. The continued expansion of huge debt in order to postpone a further decline in private living standards has been naively defined as a policy of "success". But keep in mind the kind of charlatans these politicians really are. This is being done by those who have a vested interest to keep the public trough open for continued siphoning of public funds for their own private benefit. By running down its own balance sheet, Govt is insuring that it will lack the capacity to rectify the worst of the suffering when the entire charade collapses. The very mechanisms that Govt uses to "take care" of people and eliminate pain, are the exact same mechanisms that are bringing economic destruction closer to a reality every day. History shows that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy, there can be no recovery until the excess is eliminated. But instead, we have made the fires of excess even hotter without any cool down ( elimination of debt excess ) . Political efforts to expand debt are enthusiastically supported as we establish more programs to take care of our children or some other identifiable group of "worthy" recipients. Continued Govt debt, lax monetary policies, credit guarantees, bailout of failing markets ( Mexico and Asia ) and other attempts by Govt only paper over the gangrenous mess that it has created. These kinds of activities bring only short-term gains to politicians who don't care about the real threat of broad economic collapse when the cycle finally plays itself out. Just like Russia collapsed due to excesses from military overexpansion ( and the like ) , the West will similarly reel from the excesses of welfare and the mentality that it has created. Govt has defined welfare predators as being victims who society must give more money to so they will victimize society even more. Then at the same time, the producers ( who keep their nose clean ) are taxed even more for "not paying their fair share" so that such money can be spent on welfare predators who car-jack "producers" and commit other similar predatory crimes. This kind of perversion will come to an end. And it is likely to do so in the form of vigilante-ism. This will be a natural outcome from the excesses that Govt created when they forced producers to "back away" while giving preferential access to the welfare predators to forage on the fruits of the producers. --- Remember, a system that guarantees no loss ( like the welfare mentality that we have today ) will ultimately be upended. Just like Russia who tried to guarantee that no one would profit ( and failed ) , the attempts of CGs to insure against failure, will also come to an end.

10. The Languishing of PMs. Until the mania comes to an end, PMs will continue to "languish" at lower than proper prices. We may see some movement of AU up to $350 or even $400/ oz. But lets get real here. The current price of AU is the same as it was 18 years ago. This says that there has been absolutely no inflation since 1980. And if you believe that, then I'll buy your house for the same price you paid for it in 1980. Kitcoites need to understand the principles. Every time AU goes down in price, its not only a great buying opportunity, but you are storing up future wealth at less than 10 cents on the dollar. Because, when the forces break loose, the value of AU will not rise to the correct market value ( that reflects true inflation ) . The value of AU will surge past this value and will bring tremendous wealth to those who had the wisdom to buy in when the price was so low. DO NOT LAMENT. Be overjoyed with the opportunity and get to work to accumulate even more. Anyone who sees a bargain and bitches about it being a bargain should take a long look in the mirror. Then keep the image in mind when the proverbial feces hits the fan and the value of your bargain brings you unfathomable wealth.

11. WB puts the Genie back in the Bottle. For those who doubt what I am saying, look at WB. He purchased 130 million ounces of Ag and was immediately viewed as being a freak by the talking heads. Remember, the only reason why we even know about his activities is due to the pressure of the Phibro suit. Otherwise, he would have pulled off his caper in complete annonymity. Then when Ag went screaming to $7.40+, he did what was needed for the FED, his Govt, and the public at large - WB took the pressure off the market by leasing forward. If he had not done this, he might have blown the lid off the cauldron and singlehandedly brought a major economic downturn to the US. If he had not put the Genie back in the bottle, he would have been labled as being the "engineer" of the drop - only so he could profit from it. --- To think that he wanted this kind of publicity is pure lunacy - it was the LAST thing in the world that he wanted. Remember, he never wanted the publicity about the Ag purchases in the first place. Keep in mind something else that may be going on. If WB was buying Ag , then why not AU too? If WB learned from his mistakes of his Ag purchases, then he will be smart to buy AU from every market accesspoint throughout the world and not only the London market ( as he did with Ag ) . There's another thing in his favor too, if he is buying AU - he can buy a lot less, and thereby create a lot less attention for the amount bought with the same $'s spent on Ag. He only needs to buy 2.2 million oz of AU vs 130 million oz - for another 5% of Berkshire/Hathaway. [NOTE: the following discussion is only a presupposition and not to be accepted as an absolute. There is no possible way to know exactly how WB might be accumulating AU unless he lets us know how.] So with that disclaimer, let's look at a scenario.


8 markets: London, Zurich, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Singapore, Japan, & Hong Kong

- 1,000 oz / day purchase @ only $300,000 / day in each market = 8,000 ounces / day

- translates into 275 days total to obtain 2.2 million ounces. -- But this takes too long

SO, if he uses other mechanisms to buy gold, such as buying even more in Hong Kong and Singapore, due to the economic turmoil and deflation, then he can accumulate 3 - 4 times the amount he is purchasing in the other markets. Another option is to purchase directly from the CGs themselves. He's the kind of guy who can potentially get this kind of access. And as long as he doesen't blow the lid off, then the CGs will continue to sell and sell. It's a great deal for both sides of the equation. Now he's cut down the time in half or less. Then he can reduce his time down even more by purchasing forward production directly from hungry mines who will do anything at current prices to stay alive. Even if WB has to pay $5 over spot, he can continue to accumulate large amounts of AU. He can devise a plan that will bring him this much AU in 90-100 days or less. And the good thing is that he can do it when everyone is looking to equities and assets to store their wealth, while WB goes through the back door to "get all the gold". Wow, what a thought. Remember, the key to this is to take everyone's eye off the ball.

There's something to think about - regarding the plausibility of the previous scenario -- Why did WB parrot the worn out axioms of "value investing" and the like when he had his Berkshire/Hathaway pilgrimmage in Omaha earlier this month? Why would he state that overvalued stocks are the place to be when we know that he bought massive amounts of bonds and then the Ag? IMHO -- the only logical conclusion is -- for him to "get the Genie back in the bottle".

Due to the overexposure of his positions in stocks, he is compelled to protecting the value of his company and his own wealth by buying bonds and Ag ( and maybe AU ) . Another option is that he is also buying Ag /Au stocks on dips as he expands his opportunities to protect himself. ( While all of what I have presented here about WB is an attempt to read the "tea leaves", WB has established a bit of a trail to follow. And if he is the value investor that he says he is, then the real values right now are in PMs. But he is getting a double bang for his buck. He's getting great value AND great protection from the devaluation of his $60,000 / share company if he holds only stock. That's why he bought bonds in 97 and Ag in 97-'98 .... and AU? in 98?


SUMMARY
The current situation with the languishing of PM market is just the calm before the storm. Everyone out there ( with the exception of Kitcoites / goldbugs ) are married to the current stock market / mutual fund MANIA. -- If you have any doubt that this is a Mania then put it to the test. Go to the grocery store and make an off the cuff comment to the checker about the continued gains you hope to make in your mutual fund. Almost assuredly, you will get a hearty affirmation and some comment about how well they're doing too. Then, go back later ( to a different checker ) and tell them how concerned you are about the overvaluation of the market which is causing you to buy AU. Now, see what kind of look you get. This proves just how brainwashed the entire public is about P/E ratios of 40 or 60 or even 221 ( as with Lucent Technologies --
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LU&d=t

-- check it for yourself if you want ) . How in the world can you justify 221+ years to pay back the value of a stock when taxes and inflation will push that out to 300+ years. WE HAVE A MANIA IN EFFECT !!!!

This means that the current market mania will continue to feed upon itself until it is finally exhausted. It is like the fire bombing of Dresden that was designed to use the flammable material of the city to assist in the burning of the entire city as more and more oxygen was sucked from miles around to feed the firestorm. This Mania will not come to an end until all of the fuel in sight is burned up - FIAT CURRENCY.

The good news is that AU is about as low as it can get. So buy more and hunker down. And as the markets stay low - BUY MORE and then BUY MORE. Do everything you can to BUY MORE. Don't worry about the little dips and the "doldrums" of the PM market right now. Look into the future. It is better to buy PMs a month, 6 months, or even a year or two too early... then it is to throw in the towel and join the ranks of the equity freaks who see an "emporer with new clothes" as they continue to buy into those overly fattened mutual funds. The current market mania will burst. Then this market will join the ranks of the South Sea debacle in the history books. Keep in mind, when history is on your side, it is best to go with the flow.


PS -- For those who argue that CGs will flex enough muscle to control markets when the downturn begins -- look at Russia. What were they able to do when the fracturing began? Their only hope was to hang onto some semblance of normalcy as the shearwinds of change roared across the landscape. Is Russia like it was before? NO!! Was Russia able to stave off the inevitable? NO!! Then why will it be any different in other countries? -- why?-- just because you don't speak Russian and it was an exclusively Russian thing that happened? Absolutely not!! The same thing that happened in Russia will sweep across the plains of the Western nations. The only difference is that we held it off longer.

The moral to the story is to BUY MORE PMs and BE HAPPY DOING IT !! This Mania has to burn itself out. Remember, every dog has its day and you will too.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/051798/politics1_28300.html

Excellent post...a Giant GULP to ya from Cuervo Central...

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/05/18/financial_news/usindones_1.html

JTF - wonderful idea you wrote - "Wouldn't it be nice if the WGC advertized gold like diamonds are advertized: instead of 'Diamonds are Forever'"

Back on Fri May 08 1998 16:10 I wrote here:

"Is there someone out there who knows someone in the Gold business who could get a DeBeers style campaign going to persuade individuals to buy just a few Gold coins - for insurance - to take care of their families, etc? The same spiel life insurance companies use."

On Fri May 08 1998 16:13 tolerant1 responded:

"Squirrel - the horror of it is that you can even make such a comment, I still ask the question, who is and what is The World Gold Council. If I had half their budget for the past ten years you would be finding soverigns in boxes of CrackJacks by now."

On Fri May 08 1998 16:33 I told Tolerant1 - "screw the World Gold Council! Is there some other potential group who can DO SOMETHING instead of talking or reacting. Sovereigns in Cracker Jack boxes not. But for a measly few hundred US dollars a person can give an valuable heirloom to their children {who will hock it at the nearest pawnshop for party money}. Even a 1/2 ounce coin could be an cornerstone in the foundation of their child's future. {Now I'm starting to sound like a life insurance salesman!}"

I am still finalizing my sombrero idea for Cuervo.

Please email me...

xanadu_98@webtv.net

thank you

While your logic makes some sense, there's the other side of the coin to that arguement. The Govt views the Eagle as their property that they have entrusted to you. There is always a chance that they will "trade" fiat currency for your Eagle at "market value" when it serves their purpose. The idea that you have ownership of your Eagle becomes rather shaky under such a scenario.

When FDR is WJC's mentor and when AU was confiscated by FDR, then the leap to another confiscation is not that long. While I hope it doesn't happen, the USG has proven that you don't own anything. They only let you keep it for a while. They ultimately get it all - by hook or by crook.

Once again the hyperactive PM shares have dropped about 4-5 times the percentage move in spot. They rarely know what they're doing. I doubt they do this time.

Lock&Lode -- YUP! SuperNova. Fiat paper ends in a big bang. Buy the physical. It's the only thing that ain't paper! Physical items will trade for physical items and everyone knows the history of gold as a most useful common denominator in trade. Don't neglect silver also.

Lock&Lode -- Fed will probably trade you 'face value' for the coins. 50 bucks. Why else put a stupid number on them.

Department wants to protect us from the evil Microsoft. Ah yeah...

Good old spot GOLD is at $300.40 at the moment. Everyone seems to be convinced that gold is headed south near term, at least on this forum. So, I start thinking, do I want to thin out my Gold investments. Lets see now:

1. The Asia crisis is far from over. A good chance exists that the near future will bring about a total financial collapse in Japan,followed by God knows what.

2. Our own government ( USA ) is in crisis. The current President may go soon. Our rate of inflation has been hidden for sometime with lies.

3. Our currency will probably be replaced by the Euro dollar as the safe haven for world investment.



I think I'll start adding to my positions instead of diluting them. GO GOLD.

One more thing. Has it occured to anyone that Russia is, and will continue, to withhold shipments of the white metals to keep the price up. I think they will resume inadequate shipments soon.

Just my thoughts folks

If I were Bill Gates I would tell the US of A Gummint to kiss my @--
and move Microsoft to Bermuda, better weather and business friendly environment.

I think Gates will beat the Justice
Departments case. He is simply giving
away his browser with Windows 95. You
dont have to buy windows95. If you want
netscape you can use it. I think
the JD case is clownish. I also think
Reno is the village idiot.

Hey, maybe, er - hmmmmmm.... that's why Gates bought that South Pacific Atoll a couple weeks ago - or perhaps it could be a Y2K escape sanctuary. Wonder if the Atoll has any trade sanctions with India?

RJ:

Your call for a general amnesty for LGB this weekend was an ill-conceived and unconvincing gesture for some very compelling reasons.

In the irst place, even in LGB's own terms, his arguments against ANOTHER are nothing more than envious diatribes which convinced few thoughtful observers on this forum. In one of his last posts on the subject he claimed that ANOTHER chose to withdraw because, having carried out his hoax and with the price of gold about to plunge, he was laughing uproarously over his successful pulling of the wool over the Kitco eyes. I ask you: If ANOTHER knew that gold was about to tank, wouldn't that have made him someone to be cultivated and encouraged on this forum? Not driven away with ridicule; something that should not be tolerated towards any poster by any of us. And exactly why was such a constant effort made to silence a voice that was followed with great interest by so many? What was offered in its place?

Pissing contests and invective!

Virtually nothing that the so-called "refreshing" voice of LGB trumpets with so little tact and consideration could not be culled from a moderately well-organized high-school debating class. There is never any real expert knowledge offered on any topic. Just a disagreeable and condescending tone that tries to pass for intelligence, with a reaction and an opinion about everything and anything. LGB implores Disney to stick to his SA stocks while he himself brays on uncontrollably and unconvincingly about every and any topic that is raised, even though the only subject he himself has ever offered expert comments on was numismatics.

While you yourself never tried to hide your own doubts and reservations about "that OTHER fellow", at least you had the grace and tact to minimize the potential for offence, to ANOTHER and to those who followed his THOUGHTS with great interest.

No, we owe no apology to LGB. With the disappearance of ANOTHER, we have all lost greatly. To the extent that LGB's gratuitously offensive and inexpert comments contributed to his withdrawal, he will owe us all a collective debt that can never, ever be repaid with smart-ass, inexpert verbiage no matter how tactlessly it is delivered! And incidentally ( and as you know perfectly well ) , ridicule never passes for very long as a substitute for humor.

Do you feel the same way about J.D. Rockefeller and Oil for Hitler.

I agree with your feelings about Government control, this is Just a question; I am not in favor of MSFT, AAPL, or any other Co. or Government controling our lives.

It really Pi**es me off when I get crashed by MSFT on MSNBC and other sites he controls.

HighRise

Our leader, Bill Gates, is speaking now. No, his mouthpiece is speaking.

They are worried about jurries designing computers....SURE.

Europe,Justice Dept. and 20 State Attorney Generals can't all be wrong.

HighRise

I know nothing about futures trading. My point of view is that it is paper and will burn. Happy trading!

Yes they can be wrong as per your last post...

Email to ya shortly.

Notice they are formed in 'bottle' architecture. Must be artifact of original computer work by Russian computer experts ( pre-transistor ) . Thanks for the lead!!!

I have contacted "The Bank" security forces about your behaviour. They are on their way over. Resistance is futile.

Veep.

PH in LA: I don't care which one is correct--but what has ANOTHER said that would make anyone envious?

Jerry Favors, who has been uncanningly accurate lately, says if 9023 is broken on the downside we will test 8700 and have most likely seen the top. What interesting times we live in.

I closed out my ABX and PDG trade at a 4% loss today. Such is life. It didnt work out.

I dont think Standard Oil Sold to hitler during the war before that it was business as usual with most companies. The govt should stay out of business, that is what is wrong now.

Favors says this calls for at least a drop to 8700. This guy knows his stuff. He is buy far the best analyst CNBC has on their show.

We won't have to wait much longer. Better get in Pudent BEARX while you can.

IMHO, of course.

Who do you feel about the public use of what you posted at 13:18. ?

I'm sure it will make the rounds. I for one, will be sure to leave your "handle" and "Kitco" attached. Thank you. You do a service.

I can read a Statute. I can read an agreement.
I understand the concept of jurisdiction.
I understand private agreements are outside the Constitution.
I will not have a private agreement with an independent international entity whose rules and regulations can by the terms of the agreement infringe, abridge, deny and disparage my rights secured by law in my country.
I will not be one of theirs.
If you choose to be one of theirs, that's your affair.

Thanks for the reminder of the long view. Well done. As you say, look at Russia. Speaking of which, its stock market has gone down over 25% in the last 6 trading sessions. If this keeps up, the rest of the world may notice!

If mines are hedged at a profit, why do gold shares change so much because of a decline in the price of gold?

Where do these hedge profits go? For more exploration so that the price of gold can be driven lower ?

I think the mines and CB'S have a racket at shareholders expense.

Why not take these hedge profits, pay down debt, curtail production and serve notice that enough is enough.

If not , at least pay dividends to the shareholders.

Someone explain please, my business sense says a snake is in the woodpile. How can we chop his head off?

now off only 877 points. Yes-almost 8%! We just tested 9000 and it held-for now.

Looks like today or tomorrow will be the bottom for silver. The .618 fib. retracement of the major elliott wave from the 7/16/97 low of 4.10 to the 2/5/98 high of 7.15 basis the continuous futures contract is 5.26.
The intraday low of 5.28 on the july futures today is close enough to call a probable bottom.
Additionally, today is 1/2 of the duration ( 71 days ) of the runup from
the low to the high of that major elliott wave mentioned above. This is
a likely place for a cycle reversal. If my analysis is correct, we can
expect two more major up waves which should carry the price to $10. +

A word of caution however, if 5.20 is taken out, silver could go down to test the low at 4.10

If you sell your RANGY what are you going to buy? Gold?

You are calling a bottom at 5.26 and then qualify it by saying it may go down to 4.10. Forgive me for LOL. I hope you didn't put hours of work into that one. It's like saying that we are all getting older but tomorrow we may die. Why not throw in "a chance to win the lottery" also?
Oh, I remember, you did that too by saying silver will go up to 10. Yup,
that just about covers it all.

You poor thing.

I am so sorry.

You must be a victum.

You should go to your government.

They will help you through this terrible loss.

They will help you from the womb to the tomb.

The bad thing is that you will reach the tomb sooner with their help.

Cheers.....

To all:

The last quote I saw on the XAU was 80.82, down 3.47. The trendline support is right around the 80 level. So it's not far away.
Gold fell $1.70 to close at $300.20 with a low of $299.30 for the day. Trendline support for gold is down at $296, so it's got more room than the XAU.

This is not what I envisioned on Friday. But there has not been sufficient technical damage to say definitively that gold and the XAU will not make a significant move higher from here.
That's all I can say at this point. Until the trendlines break down definitively, I'm staying long.

Silver has also surprised me with a move to new lows below the $5.43 mark, which represented a two-thirds retracement of the Aug '97 - Feb '98 upmove.
The stochastics on the silver weekly chart are getting into the bottoming range.
Silver is making an ABC correction from its Feb highs. If leg C is equal in length to leg A, then it will take silver down to $4.60 or so. I doubt it will get that far, but anything is possible, I guess.
What I rather favor is that silver, gold, and the XAU will bottom within a day or two and will then all head substantially higher.

I'll be back with more later, after I've downloaded and digested my charts.

The Preacher

PS. Midas, I feel your pain.
I wonder how Heavy Hitter is doing in this market.

I expect US stocks will go down somewhat further, but this probably is not the start of the big bear. Not with bonds strong, the dollar robust, and gold under pressure again. When this bubble is ready to go down for the count, bonds and the greenback will be tanking along with stocks and gold will be moving up strongly.

There is nothing unfair about MSFT shipping their product the way they do, it is called free enterprise, plain and simple.

Isure,
My quick answer to your question is that the price of stocks does not directly reflect the earnings of a particular company, but it reflects the emotional response of the sum of investors, or which the earnings of a company figures in as one aspect.
With gold dropping, the emotional response of investors changes negatively and the share prices drop.
Rather simplistic, but it's the best I can do on short notice.

BTW, you see BGO down only 1/16 today, and it is generally very leveraged to the gold price.

The Preacher

Does kitcat = hepcat? If so welcome back.

I don't know whether you are a savvy short seller trying to influence
the trading, or a complete novice. If you are a novice go back and reread the message.

Anybody have any insight as to why ASL is up 3/4 today on heavy volume in face of a weak gold market.

Time to dump another load of US bonds and buy gold.....

AYORK,
I hope your figures on silver hold merit. I have reckoning the the silver top at $7.95. You are reckoning it from a good bit lower. If your figures have merit, then it makes this correction a good bit more palatable.

The Preacher

All: The computer star Hewlett Packard went down about $3.00 today, losing the last of its stellar gains of the last three weeks or so. No surprise, as there is no evidence that HP ever had an earnings boost to support the meteoric rise from $60 to $80/share. If I was better at trading, I would have rode HWP up and down. Only did the up part.

PanAmerican Silver is now slightly below $9.00, responding very little to silver's drop to $5.30 or so today. Which would you choose, PAASF or HWP as the better bet?

If this is the silver low, we are doing well, I think.

I wish gold was more transparent.

Re-reading the message gave me additional insight. You prophecy that silver is now at its bottom and may go up to over $10 BUT if it goes down
it may bottom again at 4.10. Therefore, the current bottom may be the bottom unless it is the top of the bottom. If the latter is true, the bottom may be at 4.10. Is that correct?

I am a novice. My point is that your forecast is not much use if it ranges all the way from $4 to $10.

Too much slammin
Think back to Easter when it was agreed to buy most to let people post their views without getting lynched.
Keep your cool - the bull has got a dagger or two in her, we just need the kill shot.

I think this happened back in March, if you factor in inflation, ( not cpi, but real asset inflation at 10% plus. Consensus is that we are in for a crash, not a soft landing. Question is, will pm stocks crash too?
Should we cash out with what little gain the XAU has managed and buy physical, or do we stick with the higher leverage of gold equities?

Vertical fall about 3pm, encountered a horizontal glass floor and started drifing up again... but Favors says this calls for at least a drop to 8700. Looks like it got PPT'd? Just putting off the day of reckoning.

As somebody said earlier - a lot of GOLD coins somehow survived FDR - buried somewhere most likely. I was trying to be patriotic with the Eagles but if that's how the USG wants to be then folks can buy Kitco Bars, Mounties, Maple Leafs, Sovereigns, Kangaroos, Krugerrands, Pandas or whatever.
Oops. Better not be Pandas. True Americans might not look kindly on owners of those. Reckon they'd have to melted down to get past the militia road blocks.

GO ahead and print away. My intent was for people to print this out and read so they could put the major trends into perspective. Remember, the collapse of Russia was not an isolated incident. The forces that brought it down are also at work in the US but they are working on different sicknesses. You cannot keep destructive behavior subsidized forever -- Easy money and a Federal Govt protecting the civic predators from loss.

The bottom line is, until the Stock Market bubble bursts, the PMs are likely to lanquish. How long? Who knows? The bubble still has elasticity while it continues to stretch. Even though the prospects of of a mania burst does not make me the happiest camper, I am driven even more to protect myself with PMs. As the PMs languish, I take solace from three thoughts:
1. With the prices remaining low, I can continue to acquire more.
2. The longer this plays out, the bigger the bursting of the bubble.
3. Then the PMs will soar like an Eagle !!! ( pun intended? )

Keep the faith out there. And if it helps to read my 13:18 post a few times or to keep it as a reference, then DO IT!

PMs will be your lifeboat. When the "unsinkable" Titantic ( Stock Market ) hits the iceberg of reality, after key signals show the boat is sinking ( not just a 5% or 10% drop but a 20-30% drop ) , the panic will hit and everyone will TRY to flee to safety. As the ship rumbles and groans from one down day after another, the shock will get worse. Those who bought more stocks on the dips will really get panicky and as they start selling, the ship will begin to break apart. That's when the worst of the panic will hit. People will realize that the "unsinkable" Titanic is going to the bottom ( maybe short of a complete bottom but down in the 90% drop range. - a DOW of 920? - It almost boggles the mind to think it, but if it repeats the '29 trend then there will be bargains galore. Just like PMs are a bargain right now. )

The key is SAFETY - PMs offer that. If you already have your lifeboat handy ( because you acquired it when the prices were low ) , then you will be in great shape and you can row away from the disaster without the kind of distress that others will be going through. Keep that image in mind as you lament the current ~2% swings. This is a long term thing we're working on together.

Kitkat,

Before this gets out of hand, may I step in between the two of you?
In some ways this is the nature of technical analysis. It takes into consideration nothing but what's taking place on the price charts. There is always a chance that the pattern or picture forming at present may evaporate, in which the next best interpretation may be something drastically different.
Noone can tell what will happen tomorrow. But based on what's happened before, we can give entry and exit points that reduce the risk and heighten the chances of success.
AYORk's work tells him that silver may well have bottomed at $5.26. He doesn't know that for sure. But if it has, then that same work tells him it could go to $10. I understand some of his reasoning, but some I don't.
Now, he knows his system, like all others, is not foolproof. So, in honesty, he says that if silver breaks down here, it could go to $4.10. I didn't follow his reasoning on this one.
But I would interpret it this way.
Based on what AYORK has written, now would be a relatively safe place to take a position in silver or silver stocks. You have a shot at a huge profit if silver makes it to $10.
But if silver breaks down from here, get out quickly because it could go to $4.10.
Personally, I had rather see $10 than $4.10. But there are others who would rather see $4.10 than $10. That's what makes markets.
I appreciate AYORK's efforts along with those of APH, cyclist, RJ, and others who make attempts to foretell the future. Hope you will too.

The Preacher

As a market gets closer to an objective be it price or time a more accurate estimate of the final high or low can be reached. Originally I thought we would be in the 5.50 area at this time, but the rally setting up the drop did not occur. As a result lower projections of 5.00 silver prices made on 5/8 5/12 5/16 are very near and can now narrow the price objective further. Tomorrow ( possibility of tonight ) look for a low of 5.03, Buy 5.10 or lower no stop. Objective 9.50 -10.50 in 15 - 20 weeks.

Preacher
I download the continuous futures contract at compuserve.
and 7.15 was the near term ( although possibly not actvely traded near
expiration ) closing price for the high. I don't know at this point
which contract month that was. I have found that futures traders
respond to fibonacci levels basis the continuous contract especially
for the intermediate to long term.

kitkat
I trade the futures and any there is a leverage of 15 or more to one
and when you take a position you should have a way out just in case
your analysis is wrong. That's why the stop at 5.20
My prediction of $10 is based on Elliott wave analysis for the long
term and may or may not come true.

sink !

Does Hardcase = Heavy Hitter?

Let's hope so.

In the immortal words of Bart Kitner, "Bye Bye!"

Rhody,

Let me say something about the Louise copper project in British Columbia. I think it is similar to Kemess, but only 50 million tonnes have been drilled off so far.
Louise is .32% copper, higher than Kemess, but only .01 OPT gold, lower than Kemess.
The project is 100% owned by Global Mineral & Chemical ( GCO.Alberta ) . GCO needs to find some higher grade material to blend with the low-grade to make a mine.
Here's the story:
The previous owner drilled a hole back in 1992 on another portion of the property. He hit 9 feet of 1.46% copper, 1.9 g/t gold, 121 g/t silver, and 1.5% zinc.
If enough tonnes of this material could be found, Louise would become a mine. The previous owner is gone and now GCO owns the project.
Since that drill hole was made, GCO has spent C$225,000 on an IP survey and now we know more than the previous driller did.
First, he clipped the edge of what the IP survey shows to be an area of high chargeability. Second, he had his drill turned in the wrong direction.
GCO has raised a little money. It will now drill a few holes at Louise and see if it can hit some more of this high-grade material.
If so, then this stock will be an unbelieveable play as it sells for C$.13 on Alberta. There are less than 10 million shares out, so this is a US$1 million company. If Louise becomes another Kemess, can you imagine what will happen to these shares?
This is the stuff of which dreams are made. There are no guarantees, but I'm loaded up, taking a shot on this drill program.

Let me know your thoughts.

The Preacher

Excellent explaination of my analysis. I could'nt have explained it
better.
I fear the possibility that if the 5.20 level is taken out it would
negate this entire bull move and we could test the 7/16/97 low of 4.10
Possible depression?

Gloom & Doom-not yet, anyway. If gold goes below $295 watch out. Until then be patient. Silver has the same fundamentals as before. People who got in around February are just getting out. So, don't worry unless the supply/demand situation somehow changes.

Will gold rocket? Probably. When? The answer appears to be that when the holders of contracts on the short side are required to cover their losses. Will this be June, August, October or December? Don't know but I'm just waiting and watching.

Patience, my son, patience.

Tom

It seems to me that you have a seething cauldron of hatred among the tribes & classes there. But, then again that statement could apply to almost every Country on this globe. I sold 1/2 my Rangy @ a small loss last week because of India sanctions. You may br right about relative value of SA compared to NA AU stocks, but if the really weird happens & POG spends a Q or 2 below 280, I'd rather have my money in ABX.

I'm glad to know that you were trained in the French Foreign Legion & am sure you are prepared for any eventuallity.

Gimmee a holler. We're plannin a little get-together for when Reify comes to town in August. Namaste!
Avikey@aol.com

AYork, Preacher: Thanks. I think everyone is a bit testy these days. The forces of inflation and deflation are more evenly balanced than I thought they would be. It is still possible that we could have worldwide deflation, and if foreign trade outside the US dwindles, we could still have inflation within our shores. I just don't know if AG can print money fast enough.

One thing we do know, is that AG would not dare raise interest rates. Not for our sakes, but for the sake of Japan and SEAsia.

Incidentally, today's drop in gold is remarkably little given the trouble in Indonesia. This is very different so far from the scenario of Oct 97. I would like very much to hear from D.A. about silver, and his opinions about US inflation coming down the pipeline. This gold bug Tsunami surfer is getting a little worried about a wipeout.

I made a hard copy & will likely refer to it for reassurance when my confidence in AU is challenged in the months & years ahead.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100n.htm

My opinion is, look at the chart of the XAU for the almost crash of last October. The XAU fell more than the Dow.

In the turmoil of today's silver plunge, I picked up some Clifton Mining at around 1/2. It lost 47% today and last traded near .32. The spread is large though. Since this is a producing mine I find the current price level a bargain that will only exist this week. Silver is a hard one to figure, but just as we all will think it's lost, look for a turnaround, quick and decisive, --AG

The added note of the Titanic brings even more emphasis to my picture using the Titanic. Thanks for the addition.

http://home.intekom.com/rsa/news.html

drilling results. This is fine, but be advised that the average time to
production following successful drilling is about 5 years. Some good ore bodies have languished for far longer than this. I no longer speculate on drill exploration results. Your chances are still one in one thousand of making a mine. I wait until financing has been achieved.
Then you know that the mine will happen, and how much of it your exploration company will retain. Carried interests range from 20% to 45% ( if the resource is exceptional ) How can you evaluate the property unless you know the retained interest? Once financing and retained interest are known, one waits until about the middle of the construction period to take an interest. Stock price should be down to about one half the value of the drilling speculation peak values. This is the general pattern, and I have been burned almost every time I've broken my rule about waiting for financing. Good luck.

Lock&Lode; my posting re Titanic was made because of your 15.54 reference
to the "unsinkable" Titanic ( Stock market ) . I don't know anywhere near as much as some of the posters here, but I do know know that things could turn VERY quickly, when they do. Just don't know what the catalyst will be ! Your 13.18 was a masterpiece. Congratulations.

British Columbia is governed by a bunch of left wing idiots.
The Premier Glen Clarke has the inteligence level laying somewhere between that of a flea and the common mouse.
They have rules and regulations that are strangling all investment in that Province.
Louise will go broke just trying to get thru all the red tape for enviromental hearings.

will reply soon. gotta go now.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.22 The 50 day moving average is 29.64

points.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .272 The 50 day moving average is .273 thus the ratio has fallen below the 50 M/A for the first time since March 20, 1998.

Monday May 18, 4:16 pm Eastern Time
Mexico bank shares plunge after U.S. indictments
MEXICO CITY, May 18 ( Reuters ) - Shares of Mexican banks fell sharply on Monday minutes after the United States announced money laundering indictments against 12 banks.
Shares of Banamex-Accival ( BAVb.MX ) , one of the country's two biggest banks, fell 8.53 percent to 23.05 pesos. The other powerhouse of the Mexican banking system, Bancomer ( GFBb.MX ) , fell 6.13 percent to 4.90 pesos.

``This scared the hell out of everyone. I don't want to see tomorrow's bloodbath,'' one desk trader said. ``Watching ( U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert ) Rubin come out to talk about the Mexican financial system. He mentioned 12 banks. This looks very, very bad,'' another dealer said.

News of the indictments came just minutes before the close of trade. The bourse ( ^MXX - news ) was already hit by emerging markets turmoil and stood at 4,645.27 points, down 2.94 percent.

The indictments mentioned at least Bancomer and Grupo Financiero Serfin ( GSRb.MX ) , among others.

Serfin shares were off 6.40 percent to 1.61 pesos.

You are correct. I am speculating on drill results. You are also correct on odds of a property becoming a mine being around 1,000 to 1. But I think the odds, although still against us, have been reduced considerably here.

For once the drills have struck metal at a given property, the odds that they will strike metal on the next go-round increase substantially.

The drill-hole speculator is a vastly different type of investor than you evidently are. Our wealth is increased of decreased by the results of the drill hole.

This is the best chance I've seen for a potential 4,900% return on my money. It probably won't happen, but if it does, I won't have missed it and will never need to make another investment. ( You can't lose 'em all. )

It's true that this is a far different type of investment than one in a mine in which all the numbers have been crunched.

Thanks for wishing me luck.



The Preacher

Nice work!

Long time ago I bought partial bags. How many dimes are in a full bag? TIA

Silver/Gold Ratio = 56.62 This is the highest reading since November 21, 1997.

of dimes?

Once more, with feeling!! The XAU as a proxy, says that 79-80 is the target for a buy point. This is based on the premise that the bottom is in place; the TA is a two to three month duration "bullish basing triangle" from which the initial breakout occurred at 79-80. The conventional analysis says a retracement to the horizontal breakout line has a high probability of happening. The initial target for a positive move is 315-320.

As The Preacher just said, this is TA; could be wrong!! If 79 does not hold, I'm out of my Gold Mutuals and Gold stocks, as more and longer basing will be required, and plenty of time to pick entry points.

true enough. But consider, RYO just put the Kemess mine into production last week. So, there's still hope. Many other mines operate in BC as well.

The Preacher

Thank you.

Upon further reflection and a small amount of research over lunch, I found that Dupont collected royalties on EVERY artillery round fired by German forces in WWI and WWII of course they had to wait years to collect but the principal is the same. I found nothing about Standard Oil however would like reference if you have it. Best stock to buy now? Phizer, they make Viagra, I can testify IT WORKS, wen long on a golden blond last night. HAR HAR

The site looks you've posted like its run by the fascists who used to run the country. They are upset at having to share their wealth and power with the majority of the people.

If life isn't so good for them now as it was or they don't feel 'fairly' treated.

Too *#/ #* ! bad... Most plunders come to an end sometime.

I like your thoughts on silver ( 16:06 ) Between you,Preacher,RJ,and AYORK can nail down the mysteries of trading the PMs .APH ....did you get my emails? Had lots of trouble trying to download the ICQ thingie and scrambled some of my pc's thought processes. BTW tomorrow's 7th@Sportsmans Mega Ditto's Spy should be worth a doubloon or so. Sorry Bart, it's the only tip on the "stock market" i have at the moment : - } Go GOLD !!

My experience has been exremely frustrating, because athough I've made some good gains on AU stocks, I've squandered much of them by trying to short the techs. I even lost when I shorted a stock with a P/E of 4300 ( BLDPF ) .
I think that the surest way to make big gains is to use the KISS principle. Don't buy anything too speculative & buy the dips. From here on I will be adding to my ABX on every dip & even if POG goes to 200, unless logic has been completely repealled, a very large payoff awaits.

If you buy $1,000.00 face value = 10,000

Junk silver bags should be $1000 in face value ( some places will sell $500 face value bags ) , so dime count would be 10 x face value in $. Thatsalotta dimes - don't drop the bag on your foot ( ;^ ) and tip your delivery dude.

Thanks for the info guys!

but have no desire to ever set foot anywhere else on that continent. I sometimes wonder why those poor people have suffered so much over the years, especially in the midst of plenty. I guess it comes down to 1 of the few constants that we can count on in this world: Man's inhumanity to man.

All: Anyone know anything about this magazine? The article is well written. Could it be that our current administrations technology 'open door' policy has compromised our satellite encryptation system? If the information in this article is true, the recent articles in the New York Times are the tip of the iceberg. And, the trail ends at the White House.

http://www.insightmag.com/investiga/dnc1.html

The Henry Kissinger/China connection is intriguing. Perhaps that Trilateral Commission stuff is true after all. Just a thought -- what if there really were organizations infiltrating various world governments that have no loyalty to anyone except themselves? If such organizations exist, they probably have existed for centuries or longer. The problem is that any human organization is likely to become corrupted sooner or later. Let us pray that these actions are not detrimental to world peace and the advancement of the human race. I don't know, and I probably will never know.

.

http://cnn.com:80/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/18/suharto.chronology.reut/index.html

One of reasons why many of the US gold coins survived FDR's confiscation is due to the continued use of gold by the US Govt to settle debt overseas. The US Govt shipped double Eagles and the like because the Europeans preferred it to paper. Wouldn't you?

Remember, that AU was not illegal for foreigners - only US citizens. Europeans therefore, have been stashing the stuff for years and have been releasing it in more recent years because it has a Numismatic premium. Consider a $5 Indian MS 63 is trading ~$1700 to $2000. This is a great play for a European because the spot value of the AU content is only $75.

As a European, if you have some of US coins lingering around, then why not sell them to some Yankee putz who thinks that US AU is the only game in town. After you get your greenbacks for them, then go out an buy a Soverign or DMark. In fact you can buy about 20 of them with your newfound wealth. That's a pretty good spread.

The sickening part is that everyone outside of the US was able to own gold and collect it for a song. Now they are profitting from our inability to own gold and they are able to get a good premium because FDR melted so much down - creating great rarity.

When Nixon was at the helm and the price was still at $42/oz, there was too much gold fleeing the country. This made the Govt nervous and they took us off the gold standard ( even though the standard was only a restraint on the amount of money that could be printed ) . The move to take us off the standard was proof that inflation was already running at a pretty good clip. If they didn't do something quickly, then the gold reserves would have been depleted.

So, instead of setting an official rate for gold...or...taking the US$ off the gold standard, the Govt should have let the price of gold float according to the demands of the market. Either this would have forced the Govt to keep inflation in check or the price of gold would have gone through the roof. In either case gold would have done its job and we wouldn't see the kinds of imbalances we do today.

But it is due to these imbalances that gold is such a good bargain right now. Make it work for you and acquire more.

60 years without gold have effectively taken it off the radar screen. Afterall, this is the most prosperous time that the US has ever had. And if it was done without gold, then either gold is archaic or maybe it was a bad thing altogether. ( It's difficult to argue with that logic. But thats a logic that is held by so many out there - especially those who are making 30%. You're not on AU are you? So don't preach to them. ) .

the actions of the Coward Erect. And pay very dearly indeed.

quality conservative magazine.

I went back to get Claimstaker site, but apparently when I switched computers, it was lost. Here is tf for VSE to get the details-800 268 6397. Sorry, but these things are not infallible, Charlie

It is my understanding that John D. did sell to Hitler and was stopped by the US Government.

Do you think Business should control Government and the price of Gold?

It is scary, that people here, do not understand the nature of the MFST problem; and, the present and potential control one company and one man has on the Computer industry and now the Internet. This can be compared to the general publics not coming to grips with the market mania or the total denial of Clintons problems. It has to be a total lack of information or denial of reality.

This leads me to believe, that when all is said and done, he will maintain his control and dominance over all software/hardware producers and the internet.

Guilt is truly in the eye of the beholder...maybe Clinton is really innocent, Gold is worthless, the US $ not inflated, the Dow will go to 12000, Asia is really OK, and Cows can fly.


HighRise

Here 'tis: http://www.claimstakerresources.com/

The sort of things you hear from wizened aren't classic 'liberal' ideology. Rather they are the product of socialist thought, with the most common euphamism ( newspeak ) being 'progressive'. In actuality there is nothing liberal nor progressive about an ideology which would level the playing field by cutting the legs off the taller players, but they have managed to insinuate themselves into every aspect of world politics. IMHO

Wizened's use of the code word 'fascist' gives away a basic leftist socialist bias. For in history the Fascists were a branch of the socialist movement which hotly contested and temporarily won control of Italy from the Communists. I find it hard to believe that a pure socialist ideolog would frequent such a discussion group as Kitco, so it is possible that he is unaware of the deeply incongruous nature of his remark. Considering the truly fascist methods Mr. Mandela used to gain power I am sure there is more than a little unawareness; if wizened is at all open minded he will look up the matter and come back with an apology shortly. IMHO

For your education I'll include an URL to an organization which demonstrates my point on the subject. Please recall though that I am not a socialist nor allied with these thugs in any way. The reference is for educational use only. IMHO http://www.dsausa.org/index.html

I believe this is pertinanet to the discussion due to the fact that propaganda put out by socialist factions trying to consolodate power is the major hindrance to SA gold stocks returning to their naturally higher value relative to NA. IMHO

The sort of things you hear from wizened aren't classic 'liberal' ideology. Rather they are the product of socialist thought, with the most common euphamism ( newspeak ) being 'progressive'. In actuality there is nothing liberal nor progressive about an ideology which would level the playing field by cutting the legs off the taller players, but they have managed to insinuate themselves into every aspect of world politics. IMHO

Wizened's use of the code word 'fascist' gives away a basic leftist socialist bias. For in history the Fascists were a branch of the socialist movement which hotly contested and temporarily won control of Italy from the Communists. I find it hard to believe that a pure socialist ideolog would frequent such a discussion group as Kitco, so it is possible that he is unaware of the deeply incongruous nature of his remark. Considering the truly fascist methods Mr. Mandela used to gain power I am sure there is more than a little unawareness; if wizened is at all open minded he will look up the matter and come back with an apology shortly. IMHO

For your education I'll include an URL to an organization which demonstrates my point on the subject. Please recall though that I am not a socialist nor allied with these thugs in any way. The reference is for educational use only. IMHO http://www.dsausa.org/index.html

I believe this is pertinanet to the discussion due to the fact that propaganda put out by socialist factions trying to consolodate power is the major hindrance to SA gold stocks returning to their naturally higher value relative to NA. IMHO

My buddy Silverbaron put up the web for Claimstaker. Here it is again- http://www.claimstakerresources.com Hope this helps. I feel like what Preacher said-this is a good bet on drill results. Appears tyo be a tight little outfit with a bunch of potential. Good luck, Charlie, if you need more , let me know. email cdevoto@abts.net

Thanx a lot buddy. I don't know what happens to this SOB sometimes, but we are on the road again.

I would like the reference on Standard oil if you can find it. Not that I don't believe you but I have never read that in all the history I read.

I am a firm believer that when the govt interfers with a business it only makes things worse, look at Airlines, the Phone Cos. The automobile business, ad nauseum.

I have had some results on this angle. It' a lot better than the lottery. Here's 3 you may know that I've talked to that look good on this. BCMD, AYM and CLN. If they interest you, let me know and maybe I can fill in some details. Thanx, Charlie

Well, do we get an interest rate hike tomorrow or not? AG knows he must but knows he can't. Heads or tails? I lean towards a rate increase. Enough to say " irrational exuberance" has gone far enough.

The query is: How does this impact the PM's? I have answers that are bullish and bearish short term. Long term bullish.

Tom

Total power corrupts totally...

If the USG knew anything, anything at all about business, they would not be in debt to the tune of TRILLIONS...

Here's some info I found on Standard Oil/Rockefellers re: Germany: http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/wall_st.htm

chas,
What size of drill program is Claimstaker contemplating and when are they going to do it?

The reserve there is very small. It's sort of like the Cusac situation. I couldn't find much on the web site about the potential of the deposit or the upcoming drill program.

The Preacher

If it weren't for Mr Gates Netscape wouldn't have

a pot to put in the window.

Also Mr. Gates does not tell me which browser to use, I have netscape on one computer and IE on another, guess which works better? Also you can access Yahoo or any other browser just by the click of a mouse. I am not forced into any of them I use what I want when I want.
So whats the problem except that Bill Gates probably contributed to the wrong party? I'll bet if he wrote a check to the DNC all his problems with the Govt would dissapear into thin air. Shalom!

SB thanks I will print,read and comment upon.

T1 I hope you didn't think I was defending the govt?

Not at all...

price moves lately in face of all the economic, nuclear and political uncertainity that abounds. The facts are:
1 ) Gold has been depreciating since two decades now

2 ) 94% of all above ground Gold has been mined this century and more vast supplies will be mined if prices rise, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES

3 ) The Lease rates are low, very low due to lack of DEMAND, what else ?

4 ) Gold lacks quick transactional or contractual mobility, World used to digital economy that can transport millions around the world in milli-seconds

5 ) Asians that have been holding UP the Demand are in straitened circumstances and wary of falling POG and rather hold US Dollars that are appreciating and give adequate returns in form of interest.

6 ) How can everybody be so stupid and goldbugs so smart specially when everybody on both sides agrees that market is due for correction and then still not see opportunity in Gold ?

7 ) The CB's have been selling massive amounts, Why ? Conspiracy is an easy explanation without adequate reason offered

8 ) Mining Co's whose produce is Gold and PM's, they are IN IT all the way,every day for a living and their actions speak for themselves, have been hedging, selling forward as they are convinced that future prices will be low and they can load up cheaply. their actions are contarary if their belief is higher prices along the way

9 ) Most Asian currencies have devalued substantially and Gold did NOTHING

10 ) Most Asian / East European / South American markets are correcting / have gone down a lot. Gold did NOTHING

11 ) Nuke ( s ) and Food Riots, NO movement by Gold

12 ) Euro to be backed by some % of Gold, still NO upward movement by Gold

13 ) Mines closing around the globe, Indonesian Supply may be reduced, STILL NO UPWARD MOVEMENT IN GOLD

14 ) THERE HAS BEEN A BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR THAN TEN YEARS NOW, HOW ABOUT SOME SELLING OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE

15 ) Most Charts, Waves, Astrology, Law of Demand and Supply etc.. all exhausted themselves, Still no upward movement in Gold

16 ) Gold is but a small fraction of money in US Bonds and equities, WHY is not even a trickle coming into PM's. Is everybody Conspiring ?? highly unlikely

17 ) Most days we are proven wrong and prices decline, who is wiser ??

18 ) Can there be combined forces everywhere to beat gold down, In Tokyo, HK, London, NY and even in small by-lanes of Dubai and Jeddah

19 ) Since a decade, I have been hearing the stories of huge Bull break out in Gold and loading up since more than 10 years, Am I wise ? No, I could have quadrapuled in everything else but GOLD even perhaps in a Lottery

20 ) Dinars and Dirhams around the world, get real. 99.9% of the world do not know what they mean.

Go Gold Go...

Are these not, ultimately, one more version of "strange bed-fellows"?
Is this not, one more tiring time: much a-do about nothing. ... ?
What price is paid, by legions, for the pitiful pay-off of distraction? .

Mexican Bank indictment announced in Washington. For violating the rules and regulations of The Bank ? If not, then how did Mexican Banks become subject to US jurisdiction ?

Gates on CNN now, looks kinda stressed, like kitco'ites these days..

Gates may now spend more on Lawyers than R&D. Govt has tax payers dollars to continue the soap opera. Super Bowl of anti-trust litigation..

The ultimate contrarian investment, eh?

Swing chart updated
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image349.gif
Looking very weak.
We will soon get to the bottoming stage in which case
The dippies should enter and we will have our next bull leg.
Or.. down the gurgler.


European Indices
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image350.gif
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image351.gif
All these indices are putting in definative tops.
Do they have another leg left to go.

Or will the Dow be the only Global Indice to go to new highs.
Will the world stand back and watch the Dow hit 10,000
While all their markets crumble?

Gold to be kept under pressure till after the event.

Tried to call since your post, but had to leave a message. My interest is more on their Battle Mtn and Kern Co., Ca . A previous conversation had indicated 2 programs, I believe, But I will bring you up to date when they return call. Battlemtn area has had good stuff and has been materially expanded in last 10 years or so. I'll dig it out and let you know, Charlie

SB I have printed and scanned the reference, before commenting I would like to read the entire book, not just the last cahpter which seems to be a summary. Could you tell the the title,author and publisher please?

T1 I didnt think so Reify has described you as a good friend and highly intelligent in our e-mails.
High Rise I will defer comment until I have read the entire book AND
some of my old textbooks and references it may take a while be patient with me ok?

PH in LA ( RJ's Amnesty for LGB? Never! )

"Your call for a general amnesty for LGB this weekend was an ill-conceived and unconvincing gesture for some very compelling reasons."

PH -

Believe me the idea was entirely well conceived and fully baked.

LGB could beat a derisive.. joke ( for want of a better word ) into the ground but so can many here. What I like about his approach is the generous helping of simple common sense. I'm sorry this does not set the world on fire but it does chart the truest course, and is light years ahead of some here who think themselves rational when they speak of $30,000 gold. His battle with JD is between the two of them.

As for ANOTHER:

Screw him/her. I told everybody this was a hoax before Christmas. What truly amazes me is the majority of posters here seemed to hang on his every ridiculous post. You heard no words of derision from me about this fellow because I never took a word of it seriously. I got a kick out of watching his disciples argue every absurd nuance. This was all a FRAUD. So was Big Trader. So will be the next one. Somebody made some money selling the book though, didn't they? Second printing even. If you can't sell gold, sell books, right?

When you say we have all lost with ANOTHER's departure, I agree. We have lost the BEST jokester on this forum.

IF my words appear even slightly ambiguous, let me state in all earnestness:

TO HELL WITH ANOTHER.

I guess that is a very polite thing to say to a Saudi/Chinese prince/princes royalty demi-god who is letting a little Internet forum in on the machinations of the century. But I don't feel very nice today. I have little regard and less respect for anybody that still buys this fool's story. Is that mean enough? Maybe ANOTHER will reappear and complain that I represent a biting ears company when I post and that all will be clear soon, yes?

Yes

After a time

I scanned the article ( which is Chapter 12 of something ) but didn't see the name of the source publication. Inside Ch. 12 is a reference to a detailed discussion of Standard Oil in Chapter 4, which I could not find on the web. Perhaps you could contact the source website organization and ask them directly. The website source of the Ch 12 document is http://www.biblebelievers.org.au

"Absolutely"

Yes

( 1 ) IBIS : A screen based trading system used by the major banks in Germany. It currently co-exists with the traditional open-outcry system. In 1991 the local exchanges of Germany agreed to also use IBIS in the future. See also German stock exchanges and Deutsche Brse AG.

COMMENT: The url below will take you to an IBIS member list, which will show you the countries and the currencies. On the last page are the International currencies: the SDR, the ECU and the GOLD FRANC. Go. See. Believe.
http://ibis.ib.upu.org/AN/Pays_membres.html

( 2 ) International Financial Encyclopaedia
Gold-Franc : The corresponding SWIFT code is XFO.
( SWIFT is the currency code )
http://euro.net/innovation/Finance_Base/Encyclopaedia/G.html#RTFToC1688

( 3 ) Gold Franc - Internationale Verrechnungseinheit fr internationalen Fernsprechverkehr ab 1947
gold franc - international unit of account for international telephone transmission starting from 1947

( 4 ) Glossary of financial terms: Gold Franc: Several gold francs are minted. The Swiss gold franc is used in BIS's balance sheet The value of these Francs is now expressed in terms of SDRs
http://www.finmin.lt/gloss/glostxt3.htm

( 5 ) BILL C-58, THE NEW REGIME IN LIMITATION OF LIABILITY [Canada] In the case of personal injury or loss of life, the shipowner's liability will be limited to a total of 3,100 Gold Francs per ton. Where cases involve damage or loss to property alone, the shipowner will be entitled to limitation at the sum of 1,000 Gold Francs per ton. Pursuant to regulation, the equivalent dollar value of Gold Francs is determined by converting the Gold Francs into International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights ( SDR ) at the exchange rate of 15.075 Gold Francs per SDR. The SDRs are then converted into Canadian dollars according to published current exchange rates
http://home.istar.ca/~cmla/papers/hawkins.htm

The Gold Franc has its own currency symbol. Now WHAT might THAT mean? That it is ummmm...MONEY?

Its use is INCREASING. Gold is IN demand ( physical gold that is ) . GUESS WHY THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A SECRET? {:- ) )

( 1 ) IBIS : A screen based trading system used by the major banks in Germany. It currently co-exists with the traditional open-outcry system. In 1991 the local exchanges of Germany agreed to also use IBIS in the future. See also German stock exchanges and Deutsche Brse AG.

COMMENT: The url below will take you to an IBIS member list, which will show you the countries and the currencies. On the last page are the International currencies: the SDR, the ECU and the GOLD FRANC. Go. See. Believe.
http://ibis.ib.upu.org/AN/Pays_membres.html

( 2 ) International Financial Encyclopaedia
Gold-Franc : The corresponding SWIFT code is XFO.
( SWIFT is the currency code )
http://euro.net/innovation/Finance_Base/Encyclopaedia/G.html#RTFToC1688

( 3 ) Gold Franc - Internationale Verrechnungseinheit fr internationalen Fernsprechverkehr ab 1947
gold franc - international unit of account for international telephone transmission starting from 1947

( 4 ) Glossary of financial terms: Gold Franc: Several gold francs are minted. The Swiss gold franc is used in BIS's balance sheet The value of these Francs is now expressed in terms of SDRs
http://www.finmin.lt/gloss/glostxt3.htm

( 5 ) BILL C-58, THE NEW REGIME IN LIMITATION OF LIABILITY [Canada] In the case of personal injury or loss of life, the shipowner's liability will be limited to a total of 3,100 Gold Francs per ton. Where cases involve damage or loss to property alone, the shipowner will be entitled to limitation at the sum of 1,000 Gold Francs per ton. Pursuant to regulation, the equivalent dollar value of Gold Francs is determined by converting the Gold Francs into International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights ( SDR ) at the exchange rate of 15.075 Gold Francs per SDR. The SDRs are then converted into Canadian dollars according to published current exchange rates
http://home.istar.ca/~cmla/papers/hawkins.htm

The Gold Franc has its own currency symbol. Now WHAT might THAT mean? That it is ummmm...MONEY?

Its use is INCREASING. Gold is IN demand ( physical gold that is ) . GUESS WHY THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A SECRET? {:- ) )

Believe in the Creator, follow His commandments, and pray that he remembers you in His Paradise..

If you were an Asian
And sold your equities a year ago
And got out of debt.

AND PUT ALL YOUR MONEY INTO PHYSICAL

You would be far better off for what you had done.

You only need to swap fences
To observe the difference.

The problem is most Kitcoites
Observe the world through US coloured glasses

Already there has been a paradigm change.
Indonesian gold up 300%

The world has just to wait
Till the mighty US joins the others
On the other side of the fence.

Not till after the Dow/US$ has broken will US gold shine.

but if you have to have a double post--this is a GOOD
one...The IBIS membership list, which lists Gold Franc, XFO
as an international currency was updated December 1997...

http://www.switzerland.isyours.com/FXM/SO/rock.htm

German traders would disagree with you! {:- ) )

ANOTHER makes me feel like a mug
For continuing the charade.

His comments;
"Mr. Sharefin, Thank you for saving these. There is much more to this. "

Made the profits even greater.

300% MORE GOODS & SERVICES IN INTERNATIONAL MARKET, Brother, Gold did not rise bur Rupiah fell..

commies pure and simple

You left me with a tear and a smile. I have long felt Gov't can do little to help a market but can easily harm it. I still feel the great power of Gov has significantly depressed the current gold price. Our timing was bad but now we must stay the course as the next year should present a clear view and profit. Some well respected investors besides Mr B seem to be following our lead. Stay with well established producers in NA and RSA as they will weather the storm and go to all time new highs. Still some downside short term but we will soon be oversold and ready for a launch. As for Bill G, Im about to buy another computer and I will only consider msft.

that had gold are the ones who did not get buttered in their own country.

Put on a CD of the Classic collection of Kingston Trio, "It takes a worried man to sing a worried song" and "where have all the flowers gone" to ride on the "MTA"

Boy, you really dig deep. I have had a few little threads on this in the past-not connected. This should open some minds. Money talks and bullsh!t walks. But this is coordinated info that really shows "Who's Who". It sure puts FDR in his place. I wonder what would happen if you tried to put this on CBS!!?? Thanx, Charlie PS I believe FDR was more rotten alive than in the box

Veneroso Associates


BULLETIN !!!






We received two reports late last week that there has been selling of
gold by one or more European central banks. One report indicated that we are
in a late stage of a presumed long term selling program.
We understand that several dealers who are often involved in official
sector sales and who were very bearish in 1996 - 1997 have turned bullish on
the gold market. At the same time we hear more comments on producer buybacks.
All the above reports hang together. There has been sustained undisclosed
European official selling for some time. This is coming to an end and the
dealers know this. As a consequence, the dealers are advising their largest
producer clients to reduce their hedges.
As we have stated repeatedly in recent reports, if this picture is
correct it is decidedly bullish. At some point such undisclosed sales will
end and will be announced. Official selling pressures which have led to the
current low gold price will abate and the price will rise. Market
participants will notice that the gold market has been able to absorb more
metal than they thought. It will become clear that global gold demand and the
gold market deficit exceeds consensus estimates. This will imply a higher
price needed to clear the market once official supplies abate.
In our opinion, the gold market cleared at $385 - $388 in the period
1994-1996 with total flows of official sales and mobilizations of 1000 tonnes
per annum. If the unusually heavy official supplies of 1997 recede to 1994 -
1996 levels and there is a recovery in emerging Asia - both of which we expect
- the gold market should clear once again in the $375 - $400 range. Because
of short run sticker shock abatements in physical demand on price rallies,
bouts of scale up producer hedging, and perhaps 4 quarters to restore end use
Asian demand, this price recovery may take perhaps a year, traversing in both
price and time the Nov 96 - Nov 97 price decline.

Damn MIDAS, what have you been smoking?

Demand for gold has been rising steadily and far exceeds new supply from mines. CBs are only source to make up the difference. However, CB sales have been more or less constant and not the dominant supply source. CB leases are far greater. Theoretically, at least, CBs expect to get all of their leased gold back. From where, God only knows.

Lease rates are low because CBs have plenty of gold to lend. Mining Cos have used forward sales of leased gold as a cheap way to finance new mine construction ( in essence, a 1% to 2% loan ) . Wonder if these mines will produce enough to pay off the leases?

Doubt if Asians are wary of falling POG. POG stated in their currencies has been a super investment and a store of value, far better than their stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. The economic turmoil in Asia may make it hard for them to buy more, and they may even have to sell some just to make ends meet ( hence pressure on POG ) .

The difference between gold and any other commodity is it doesn't get used up. Most all of the gold ever produced can be accounted for. A large portion of this gold is in the hands of the CBs. This potential supply can meet demand for decades. Thus, IMHO, the POG will be determined by whether or not CBs decide it is best to maintain adequate gold reserves against their currencies or to divest themselves of this precious resource.

However, the lease situation is a sham! I listened to a CB banker say they would NEVER sell any of their gold, but in the same breath said they would continue their loan program! This loaned gold will never be repaid! There is no source other than the CBs themselves to honor these leases. For all practical purposes, the lease is a sale!

Therefore, the POG will continue to be weak if CBs continue to supply the market with ever increasing amounts of leased gold. As soon as they stop or, heaven forbid, decide they want that gold back for whatever reason, the market will, IMVHO, become instantaneously frozen.

Final thought. Why did CBs sell or lease gold in the first place? I think the answer is very simple. They needed the money! You see the financially weak and bankrupt leading the way in sales and leases!

but should have. There are two consistent themes that must change for gold to rise and have not occurred in TANDEM since 87. DOLLAR DOWN AND DOW DOWN AT THE SAME TIME //If this happens and gold doesnt rise then gold is in trouble. Can anyone tell me the last time the two have been in tandem. In reality the "crises" HAVE supported the dollar and therefore been good forv US financials, Ya need that loos of confidencve in the system feel. If the economic depression keeps spreading dont worry gold will rise. How about Clinton offering a bribe to Pakistan not to attack India. Now is he worried about the far east or the far east of the US NYC Dow Jones Land. They are getting desparaTE. cANT WAIT Fer the bubbke burst.

Yes, prices have gone up and gold has lost its purchasing power somewhat.
But not as much as paper assets have fallen.

I would not surprise me to see the same in the West over the next few years as we slip into a depression with inflationary forces.

I disagree, sir. Common decency demands that you respect ANOTHER's postings in the manner you would like yours received. Unless, of course, you don't care ... and in which case, this whole issue is academic. But if I may implore upon your sense of fair play, please allow those of us who appreciate and welcome ANOTHER's THOUGHTS to enjoy them, discuss them, discard them OR employ them as we see fit.

'tis not your calling to act as our guide in life; and if in your mind, this is your purpose, then I submit... it is unwelcomed.

HenryD

You were not alone,my wise friend.You are NOT alone now. The glass is half full !!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/s_p_cuts_f_1.html

I will be confident in stating almost nil or just nil.

Does anyone here made money on Gold investment, I think that the Majority has lost money.

Gold is gasping to cling to $300, let alone soar. Brief frgaile spikes is mercilessly beaten down by Sellers who can get GOLD cheaply as we speak, NOTHING POSITIVE FOR GOLD HAS HAPPENED IN A LONG LONG TIME.

In this market, GOLD goes DOWN at every news including events that had traditionally helped GOLD move UP.

If DOW has to go down 90% for Gold to rise, Then let's buy Wheat cause that is what we will need in such an event.

The US Dollar has carved itself an indispensable role in International commerce, Gold also is evaluated and priced in US Dollars, So is everything else including Oil, Silver and all other Commodities. Majority of World Trade is in US Dollars since 100 years. How can this be replaced in our life time. Then All processes, calculations, Computer programs etc.. etc.. need to CHANGE just to keep accounts and WHY WILL THEY ?

Can ANYONE explain WHY GOLD IS GOING DOWN IN CURRENT WORLD UPHEAVAL IN GLOBAL MARKETS, CURRENCIES, NUKES AND POLITICAL TURMOIL without resorting to Conspiracy logic.

Please educate me...

Thanx a lot. I just received the same and was wondering if I could type it out correctly. Charlie

ROR; You are hitting the nail on the head my friend. I would add that for gold to take off, US stocks, the greenback, and US bonds must all enter sustained bear markets. If money merely moves from stocks to bonds or money funds -- gold won't do anything. There must be a bear market or big money expectation of a bear market in all the primary US financial assets for the golden skyrocket to take off.

They have a near monopoly on the operating system and major business applications of desktop computers. The Windows/DOS standard is owned by one man. The besieged forces of Macintosh, Unix and OS/2 hold only small niche markets. Most computer buyers are not aware of any other operating system besides Windows/DOS. That is all there is on store shelves. Macintosh is usually relegated by ignorant salespeople to a dusty corner if it is offered at all. Only in techno-geek shops might one hear of Unix or OS/2 and then only if one asked about them. Im not knocking those operating systems - they are vastly superior to Windows for what they do.
Corporate, government and most higher-ed users have been told by their MIS departments they can order any computer they want - as long as it runs Windows {3.1, 95, 98 or NT}. Often they dont have even that much latitude when choices are restricted to Windows 95 and Pentium IIs. Why this singular focus? Because everyone else uses Windows and thus they must use Windows too in order to comply with the industry standard to remain competitive. The same goes for major business applications which have boiled down to Excel and Word. Wordperfect and Lotus 123 have been driven into obscurity.
Many independent technical support people are of the opinion that Windows has been and is designed to sabotage competitors applications. They blame problems with Lotus 123 and Netscape on this suspected function of Windows. At the very least, it is widely assumed that Microsofts applications developers are privy to undocumented system features/calls that competitors may never learn about. There could be a strong case for breaking Microsoft into two independent corporations - one for operating systems and one for applications. But where do OSs stop and applications begin? Windows has long shipped with embryonic word processor, painting program, address book, games, etc. ( spreadsheet too? ) . Microsoft could/will use those as a foot in the door to integrate the entirety of Microsoft Office Pro and many of its other applications into Windows. Word and Powerpoint are continually gaining features once relegated to desktop publishing progams from Aldus/Adobe and Quark. Roll in virtual reality and voice recognition as a natural evolutions of the user interface and Microsoft can knock off the games developers too! Microsoft has not invested fortunes in buying up vast numbers of movie titles and digital reproduction rights to other works of art just so Bill can display them in his mansion.

Your 19:33 is well stated indeed. The US$ is very much overvalued and when one realizes the dollar is nothing but debt - look out below! Hold on to that gold!


The Hermit

Because the US will not accept that gold has value.
Because the US values paper above all else.

BECAUSE THE US IS OMNIPOTENT AND ALMIGHTY AND DOMITATES
All the world in its thoughts.

When the concensus in the US changes
Then we will see gold take a new life.

Untill there is a paradigm change in the US
The current pressure on gold will NOT change.

RIGHT ON

markets ? TIA.

No problamo. I get it by e-mail for another month on a free trial basis and don't mind copying and pasting. It takes only a few seconds.

RJ, Glenn, and all. I am wondering whether you guys know of Veneroso. He has been promoted by the Gold Newsletter for a few months and I understand his service goes for the sum of 8k per year. Otherwise I know nothing about his rep. Does Monex subscribe or anyone that you know of use his service?

We do not need a conspiracy theory nor do we need a disaster for POG to move higher. All we need is for CBs to come to their senses about gold leases. It is not a risk-free 1% to 2% "dividend" on their otherwise incomeless gold investment. A series of defaults would bring them to their senses!

Now, if we were taking about silver, would this be a better argument for conspiracy ( or at least manipulation ) ? Since much of above-ground silver is in the hands of a few large players, why isn't it possible for any one of them to play the market, dumping a large quantity driving prices down and triggering stop loss sales, and then repurchasing the dumped silver gradually at lower prices? In the past two years or so, for the most part the declines in silver have occurred in sharp down moves over short periods of time ( sometimes in 15 minutes ) . The up moves have been a more steady, grinding affair, except for the WB rally, of course. With the POS so low and leverage so available, it wouldn't even take much money to play this game!

lease rates low. C'mon Short of being INSANE, It doesnt make sense as they will be hung by the Balls if it done intentionally as you suggest. Why would Mines borrow from the Market instead of selling their own produce at Spot, ONLY cause they are confident of falling future price, if not, WHAT ELSE ? Are they all suffering from dementia to shoot themselves in the foot.

Folks, Look at the blinking above to get convinced that GOLD is gasping for breath, How I wish that I am wrong, WRONG but the facts do not bear out the Wild Musings in this fora..

The last e mail I received from you was 5/2/98

The reason is obvious - it is a paper game, and there are more paper sellers than buyers. Pure and simple. As to why there are more sellers, I think you would have to know more than we do - e.g. who are the big sellers, to make any concrete observations. Of course, we all think we know, but do we really? To carry SDRer's great research forward - since the gold franc IS money, why would anyone who deals in gold francs wish them to be less in terms of dollars? Is it the supposed gold/oil deals? Pushing the value down ala Nathan Rothschild so they can corner the market?

There seem to be sound reasons to suppose the gold loaned out by CB will never come back. I don't know if that is true or not because I have not read a lease. But, suppose it is true. What reason could a CB Director have for loaning out gold with at a risk it will not come back ? Is there a way a CB director or someone with authority over a CB director could covertly and discreetly profit from the gold not coming back to the bank ? Corruption seems ever so much more likely than incompetence.

7 ) The CB's have been selling massive amounts, Why ? Conspiracy is an easy explanation without adequate reason offered

About this CB selling ( again ) ..just who hs been buying all this Gold? Is there someone ( or group of someones ) who is buying all this huge amount of Gold? It seem to ne that if all the sales are between CBs then they might better be called "reallocations" - at least if it's within the ECU

If they ( the sales ) are to the Middle East or China ( gov'ts ) how can that not be bullish?

If theres is a non-governmental group buying this stuff - I bet they know more than I do maybe we should be swimming in their shadow?

Is it all really just being dribbled into the market to fuel the shorts?

Why? The little guy usually gets screwed. These CB sales jsut seem too obvious - I just can't belive anyone would give away gold for peanuts 9 or salt? )

We have heard many times of these CB Gold sales?

Please - one and all, who is buying this stuff? Traders - to end up as "consumption"? Other CBs? End Users? Conspiritors?

Does anyone know?

When are these people going to realize how overvalued the markets are? What is going to trigger the BEAR market. People are telling me there is too much money being invested into the stock market for it to go down.

I believe that we may have witnessed the high for the Dow-
Too many negetive isues dominating the news. What with Clinton/Asia/India/Y2k/Mideast/
Japan/136yen/El nino/Global warming/Alien invasion/...
something has got to give and I think all these prssures will affect the markets. Still dont see gold moving - but its time is surely a coming.

There is a financial tsunami traveling the globe.
Becuse of the US's omnipotence it will take a while to be felt.
Already it has reached the shore of our fair country Australia.
We are feeling it.

It will travel the globe hopping from country to country.
Finding the economically weak and weakening.
Starting at the bottom tier and working its way throughout all.

Time will let us see this unfold.
Already we have travelled a year on its path.
There are many more years to go.

Gold will be battered up, down and sideways till this event is through.
But untill the concensus in the US changes
We will not see it change much in US $$ prices

Is not gold viewed through US rose coloured glasses?
Till their colour changes it will be
The same as before.

But be prepared
Change may come as fast as a rocket.
Perception changes concensus
Perception changes reality.

This place we call the world
Will not be the same in 2 years time.

Unfortunately, such organizations do indeed exist and have existed for centuries. It is interesting to note what Franklin D. Roosevelt said, "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way". Roosevelt was in the very position to know what he was talking about.


The Hermit

Interesting cross posting of messages! CB bankers insane? Maybe, but I think it is more likely arrogant confidence in financial assets. Hung by the balls? If there is a God, they should be!

Mining Cos on the other hand are absolutely logical. Why borrow leased gold at 1% to 2% per annum, sell it now for the proceeds, and repay the loan with the production from the mine? Which would you prefer? Borrow from the bank at 10% or borrow by selling leased gold at 1% to 2%? You are not going to get a prize if you guess the right answer!

The U.S. buck just has not allowed you to see it. Other people in the world that havve suffered from economic disaster would have been happy to have had gold. They indeed would be still rich.Probably richer when you consider what a worker now gets paid in one of those countries. The U.S, dollar and stocks have proven the place to be. Keep a good amount of gold and I believe it will pay off but I suspect if you are like me you are regretting the returns you could have had if you were stupid enough to invest in the markets. I keep waiting for the shake down and it doesn't happen. Start reinventing the wheel . It's ok to make mistakes. I always have learned from falling down. Everytime some smug bastard tells me how much he made on some stock I know that everytime he wins he gets in deeper. Making money has been so easy in the market anyone can do it. Those guys have a lot farther to fall than you and I. Money saved is money saved . Money risked is...well it is not saved. Me? I'm not going to do anything rash just yet but I will sell my gold fund in Oct. if I don't break even by then.

toooooooo true

have not LOST on these deals but WON with a profit.

WHY WOULD THEY DEFAULT, HAVE THEY LOST MONEY OR HAS GOLD GONE UP LIKE ROCKET, nyet..yes.

trees. Sometimes, patience is a very hard thing to have.

RJ, snip, snip. My, arent we a little testy today. Whats the matter, Platinum didnt go up as soon as you said? Sorry to be unkind but I assume one who dishes out likes it dished back. Am I correct?

Another asmuther-who cares. The man can be judged next January with ease. Do I think the guy could foretell the future? No more than you, my friend, no more than you. Now oris believes he knows who this guy is. Brother oris may be correct. Unfortunately, none here really knows for sure.

Since I am not a trusting soul Mr. Another had no impact on my investment decisions. For those who were so affected, I hope the guy is right. Farfetched? Yes! Impossible? No! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. Tell you next January if the guy was a fraud. You can tell me and I can tell you if we were wrong in our predictions too. Hope we dont call each other frauds.

Enough of this useless banter. To important stuff-what think yea of Platinum, short term?
Tom bbml

The book which the Standard Oil / Ch 12 reference was taken, is "Wall Street and the Rise of Hitler" by Antony C. Sutton. It is out of print, but you can order it through www.Amazon.com and the item number is 0892450045.

I am sorry for being late with this post - had a problem posting - probably Bill Gates or Janet Reno.

If you are on PC which Windows OS are you using? Which is easier to use Netscape or IE?
If it is IE I rest my case - he keeps you from using Netscape.

Regarding the DNC donation I dont know but he did sit in the Congressional Gallery with Hillary during one of Clintons BS sessions to the combined Senate and House. I just assumed that he bought that seat.

I still think the entire thing may be a legal sham. Just like Paul Allens Co. suing MSFT.
They are establishing new law for the future, they are setting things up just the way they want them.

Are you familiar with JAVA? And, are you familiar with what MSFT/Gates is doing to Sun MicroSystems JAVA? Have you tried to navigate a Gates controlled public URL site with something other than his systems?

JAVA is what is is really trying to steal or stop, it is a major threat to his dominance

His donations to libraries etc. are all tax deductable, in other words the US taxpayer is paying for his cornering the market.

It is all about control. Control your communications and your Gold.

HighRise

http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1998/view0598.htm

IDT ( Chas et al. ) ABOUT VENEROSO. You ask, " I am wondering whether
you guys know of Veneroso."

Veneroso Associates is one of the foremost gold authorities in the entire
world.

Here is a partial list of his clients for his gold expertise:

Clients have included The World Bank, The International Finance
Corporation, and Organization of American States.

Advisor to the governments of Bahrain, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador,
Korea, Mexico, Thailand Venezuela, and the UAE.

We are talking world-class sophisticated gold analysis - whose
advice is sought by world-renown financial institutions, who can
afford his organization's professional services.

In a few words, his reputation as a gold expert is par excellence.

To all:



Just about everything that needs to be said on the markets has been said this afternoon. Support for the XAU is at the 80 level, not too far from the close. It needs to hold that support level.



Spot gold closed at $299.55. Support is at $296. Gold needs to hold its support line right there or else the bull market case from the January lows is highly suspect.



In looking at some of the individual stocks, Homestake is the brightest spot I see. It closed on its high of hte day today, only losing 1/16 after being down a good bit more earlier.

Western Deep and a couple of the South Africans remain near their highs for '98. They haven't bought the bear-market-rally case.

Bema Gold broke out of a downtrend on Friday. It moved higher today initially, but closed unchanged. This means the Friday breakout is still in tact.



Battle Mountain Gold and Hecla each took big hits today. For Hecla, we can chalk it up to techinical factors as it tried to fill its downside gap. BMG just looks bad. We'll see.



I might have written earlier, and if I didn't, I sure thought about it, that we would see a couple of days during this pullback that would make us question why we were in gold stocks at this time. Now is one of those days. Gold and gold stocks are at a crossroads now. Hopefully, in a day or two, we'll be smiling ear to ear.



Happy trading,



The Preacher

http://news.bbc.co.uk:80/hi/english/business/newsid_95000/95945.stm

....sit back and watch this NEW gold market unfold.

Thanks.

F*

1 month....4.57
2 months...4.42
3 months...4.28
6 months...4.08
12 months..3.80

This site has up-to-date news;
http://www.abc.net.au/news/default.htm

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
For the Asian markets.

I guess everyone is waiting for Soharto to resign.
Probably a relief rally when that happens.
Though none of their problems will have gone.

They will still be down the tube.

In my previous post to you I said "the main thread", but I should have said THE MAIN ROPE, to hang that first class revolving SOB FDR. Got to stop or I'll break all netiquette rules. Thanx for the ref. Charlie

What you said about set up law cases for the purpose of getting the desired precedent in the Case Reporter is very astute. But, on anti-trust the cure is far worse than the disease. It is government or government influenced by Gates not Gates as a corporate CEO that would & could prevent alternatenet as competition to internet.

It is valid I think to look at relative price in terms of relative risk. It is said the $US is as good as gold. Actually, it is about 6% less than as good as gold right now in one market. That is the bond market. It says that a bond in $US is only 6% more risky than a gold bond. Is this a realistic assessment ? As the POG in London dropped in $US, there was an implied improvement in the riskiness of the $US. At face value the $US was about 25% less risky at the end of the down move than before. Is this a realistic assessment of risk ?

Thank you for your response re: Claimstaker Resourses. The web site does not show the last two announcements made in April and May of this year. ( Tardy ) Both announcements concern the sale of 35% of one of it's properties ( Blackdome Mine ) to a Japanese Company. I am trying to get a handle on the implications of this sale and why in particular the Japanese would enter this market. ( VSE ) The second announcement simply states that the deal is done. My friend believes that this has something to do with the Japenese allowing outside investment in gold properties.

Gold is plentiful only if you count the gold in CB vaults as part of the "supply."

Get out some dominoes and we'll do a demonstration ( based on ball-park figures ) . Count out 2,400 dominoes and place them in front of you. This represents the annual production by all of the dominoe making companies in the world. But your cousin Vinny comes in and demands 4,000 dominoes or he is going to whip your ass! So you come to me and ask if I will sell you 1,600 dominoes from my treasure chest. I respond no, but I go on to tell you I will sell you 400 and lend you 1,200. Of course, if you don't repay me, I'll whip your ass. So you accept those terms and get the dominoes to satisfy Vinny.

Next year, count out another 2,500 dominoes and place them in front of you. This represents the annual production by all of the dominoe making companies in this second year. Your cousin Vinny comes in again, this time bringing his friend Guido, and demands 4,250 dominoes or he and Guido will ... well we don't want to go into that. You once again come to me for the 1,750 dominoes you need, but this time, I say no, and by the way I want the 1,200 dominoes I lent to you back!

Where are you going to get the 2,950 dominoes that you need? Clue - you ain't gonna. You are gonna get your ass whipped!

http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a1036LBY805reulb-19980518&col=D4
``This really is the last chance to get on with it. This whole thing is much bigger and much nearer and much more dangerous than our political leaders seem to understand,''
``Public confidence in electronic money is likely to be shaken and the question for politicians is what they should do now to avoid loss of confidence in financial services markets,''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NSA concerns could hamper DOD Y2K fix
http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/0518/fcw-frontnsa-5-18-1998.html
The National Security Agency has slapped a security blanket on the Pentagon's efforts to fix the Year 2000 millennium bug, which could further slow the Defense Department's already-behind-schedule Year 2000 fixes.

BIS Statutes--

Art. 22. Any of the operations which the Bank is authorised to carry out with central banks under the preceding Article may be carried out with banks, bankers, corporattions or individuals of any country provided that the central bank of that country does not object.

COMMENT: This is a very different ballgame...take a guess
as to who some of the Very Big Buyers might be...has to
be done quietly or the price really goes wild...

If the International currencies are SDR-XDR, Gold Franc XFO and the Euro ( ECU, XEU at this moment in time ) THEN ONE NEEDS TO HOLD
SOME OF THOSE CURRENCIES...yes?

You Said:
"If it weren't for Mr Gates Netscape wouldn't have a pot to put in the window."

So what, If Edison discovered Electricity does that mean GE should control MSFT/ Gates?

This just may be what is happening. Who is a threat to whom? Or is it whom is a threat to who. NO, the former is correct.

I don't really care, except that it really bothers me that Kitcoites don't know the facts regarding MSFT control. When we complain about the rest of society not understanding Gold/US $, isn't it a little like the pot calling the kettle black?

Enough on this subject, for what ever reason we have one more issue to take the markets down, and maybe that is all it is in the first place, an easy way to slow down the markets.

PC sales are slowing anyway and Windows 98 only has a few improvements. Why buy it if you can type a letter, play a game and get on the Internet? It probably eats up all of your memory anyway. This way if sales are slow Gates can blame it on Reno just lkie Clinton.
What an easy way for Gates to reduce payroll, collapse the stock a little, slow sales, etc. etc.
The majoriety of MSFT employees compensation is in stock and stock options.

More Control!

HighRise

http://www.amcity.com/southflorida/stories/051898/focus3.html

pittance compared to US Dollar and quietly SELLING gold before formal assignments. To me Munk looked desperate in his assertion that Euro % would not push prices lower further. He also asserted that Italy, France and Germany would not sell their Gold. What about the other 7 members ?

Gold had inched to almost $314 by end of april and the prices started tumbling after the Euro announced EMU Head on the weekend of May 2/3. Something was indicated to the members about the composition of Euro that hurt POG since, Gold has slid since that Euro weekend, inspite of anarchy in jakarta, nukes in india and steady dilution of equities in majority of the world, Gold continues to Slide.

Maybe the Fed will try to intervene in the interest rates that would change the paradigm. The Far East Gold Market including Australia just wags the tail to moves in London/NY.

Australians specially are prone to just lie and take it.

You post about Guido and Vinny explains in a nutshell why ABX is the leader in the paper gold game. Munk is hiding behind USG and therefore unlikely to get his ass whipped.

Rj: HAHAHAHA!!!

All: yeah I believe gold will rise, one day... but as for the here and now, accumulate, and continue on with daily life.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/nat/newsnat-19may1998-38.htm

Does this really work?

I made a call to cln this pm. Hit the message button. They should reply tomorrow. I am interested in what you say and need a fresh update. I guess they need cash, but I would like to know why they sold some Blackdome. It may be the worst!!?? Will let you know what I can find out. Cheers , Charlie

ALWAYS buy low!
THIS is the battleground revealed:the IMF/WB/USG committed to
Fiat v BIS, Global Business committed to re-introducing this:

Art. 20 The operations of the Bank for its own account shall only be carried out in currencies which in the opinion of the Board satisfy the practical requirements of the gold or gold exchange standard.

Suddenly, the Muslims are on board; Asia is on board, The Prince's of
Davos are on board.

test

Midas, dear friend - try looking at the glass half full sometimes, rather than half empty. In spite of all the negatives you throw out ( quite a lot for a gold bull, I would say ) , look at the charts - gold is UP in almost every currency in the world - the die is cast; only in the US dollar is the question still debatable. And in any case, we all know that nothing goes up in a straight line. As for me, I've sort of enjoyed having the opportunity over the past few months to buy some beautiful gold coins that I would never have bought at twice the price, and my Durban Deep is about a double now on my initial purchase. Give it time, and chill a while. Big moves take longer than we think they will.

Any changes to status quo in Middle east or change to the govt. USA will freeze these assets like they did with Shah of Iran and Marcos and Noriega, If the govt's are not aligned to USA then they cannot survive irrespective of popular support within these countries.

and any number of events have not helped Gold thus far.

I hope that I am WRONG and you are RIGHT, Brother

re: BIS Statutes, Art. 20, 21 and 22...THIS is the
secret...

one finds ( e ) of great interest...

( e ) acquire a predominant interest in any business concern

MIDAS you old wolf in sheep's clothing! Anyone with the handle "MIDAS" has to be a goldbug! Enjoyed the debate, but my keeper is calling and it is time to depart.

Hope I made my point, however. Should anyone be puzzled about the action in the POG, regardless of whatever the background of events? Should you analyze your charts, support levels ( I love the line support is at 295 unless it breaks through - perhaps we should look up the definition of support ) , Eliott ( ET phone home ) waves 1 2 3 4 or 5 and A B or C, etc? The POG will defy all logic until CBs start to see the error of their ways. If a complete currency crisis in all of Asia is not enough to teach these bums a lesson, then what will? Perhaps a world wide currency crisis that shakes the foundations of the financial markets will do it!

By the way, MIDAS, "inspite" is not a word. Try despite.

PL down 8 bucks on the Hong Kong opening ( unless this is another Kitco anomaly ) . PA up around 2 bucks.

Think about this possibility. Govt engages MSFT in lawsuit to depress the market, and, whaddayaknow, they don't have to raise interest rates. Only problem is, it may have more than the desired impact, and take down hi-tech much further than expected, and on and on. Clever, but these subterfuges and machinations and sleight of hand tactics must eventually blow up in their faces. They are literally playing with dynamite when they mess with the main engine that propels the DOW, i.e., hi tech. Since they have destroyed hard assets, oil, etc. Leaves financials and computers, which are in-bred first cousins...

imhumblestOOOOO.

WHEN THE DOW BREAKS,THE DOLLAR WILL FALL,AND UP WILL GO GOLD, TO THE JOY OF US ALL

The Big Boys are just playing with the PMs they are making money on every move up and everymove down.

If we cannot or choose not to run with them all we can do is buy as low as possible and wait till they work their way up to our sell point.

Be patient, cool it.
Man it is frustrating isn't it!

HighRise

an enormous mental and emotional strain on us all. To live
with the seemingly senseless, to fend off lies from every
quarter, to find it necessary to constantly 'check' one's
considered, objective observations is to find oneself
in one of Dante's lower circles of purgatory. You asked
good questions; it is not a bad thing to recheck one's
position...just painful! {:- )

downunder - Great verse! I think I'll teach it to my kids and have them sing it to me when I go to sleep at night.

First, I want to thank you for your frequent and enlightening posts.

I've been looking, but I can't find any other reference to the Mexican Bank indictment than the one you already cited, which of course doesn't say what the basis in law or under which treaty/body of law the indictment stands. Please let us know if you find out more. I'm still wondering what the heck the US government is doing indicting another country's institutions. Also wondering if it was quietly approved at the G8 meeting of last weekend.

It's amusing watching the powerful of the world going on, "calling the shots" as if all was normal in the world while it disintegrates around them. They won't see it until the very end, I think.

I checked the enclosed url's and one had a reply request. I laid it out and got an error message. I tried all remedies offered-no result. I'm still after details on SGF issue. I know this is not your problem, but if you have any comments, I would appreciate. Thanx, Charlie

Its yours

With all the rain and grey skies where I live, it is easy for me to feel
down, bummed out. Then I read the newspapers, and am sorry that
I didn't remember that bad news sells newspapers. So I check my
silver stocks and various positions and I get *really* depressed. Then
I read this site for 3 or 4 hours, and am fascinated as usual, but even
more depressed. I am in the process of doing an "on again, off again"
reality check, struggling to clarify my "reality," ( similar to what was just
posted ) and BINGO, it is now clear as a crystal, this is exactly the time
Warren Buffett would be/ is buying more. Is he not selling stock? I
bet you ( in fact I am betting, ) that WB is buying more silver now, with
the proceeds. I do care, very much. I bought silver coins today, and
I am buying futures tonight. Yes.

What will happen to all the prisons in the US? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

..Yes the Penny Stocks over in Canada are much better than the lottery.

Out of every 462 explorations there is One Winne.r.

The Canadians by and far are the best exploration artists in the world.

And when it comes to mining they are the best,no argument.

However.. as I said yesterday there promotors are so CROOKED they could stand behind a corckscrew and you couldn't find them.

They have some woman over there on the Vancouver exchange trying to clean it up.She is taking all the fun out of it.

With the odds running 462...1 you have to separate the water from the whiskey.

I subscribe to a Canadian Paper on line, called the Norther Miner,You should get it. It is the Bible of all exploration and mining activities worldwide. It does not matter what country , if its exploration or miningthe Canadians will be in on it.

As a starter, to lower your odds check what % the company you are looking at holds on the exploration, most times there are many working together on the same project with different % holdings.

It is getting VERY frustrating to try to BEAR the shorts incessant attacks on the value of PM's.

How long can they continue to financially attack those of us who recognize the value of PM's and keep getting away with bleeding us??? Truly, there is blood in the streets after today's unbelievable assault on silver...not to mention the relentless attacks against the price of gold. Even platinum seems stagnant in spite of the problems in Russia and the fact that palladium is going into the stratosphere. If nothing else, platinum should at least be going up in response to palladium's historic rise to stardom. What the ( expletives deleted ) is going on???

Others may deny a conspiracy theory, but I'm of the opinion that somebody does not want PM's to return to even a NORMAL price, considering the laws of supply and demand, and I am getting very tired of paying the price and losing my shirt financially to support the ( numerous expletives deleted ) shorts on Wall Street, as well as CB's and other Mutual Funds, that have artificially prevented PM's from reaching a true value.

What the he** is going on??? ...and when will it ever end? My frustration is going so high that I can totally understand why some people killed themselves during the crash seven decades ago. I have made the right decisions at the wrong time, and the $#@%^&* Wall Street Gurus have made me pay, and pay, and pay, and pay, until I've sacrificed my retirement income. If I lose my gold to avoid bankruptcy, then all is lost.

--Skip

I was under the impression that the US Justice Department was playing the child's game ( pointing over your shoulder ) "Look over there!" so as to keep our attention off the real issue of the day, which is Clinton overriding his Secretary of State Christopher and the Pentagon to give the Chinese sensitive nuclear technology. Quick! Look at Mexican banks ( Rubin ) , Quick! Look at Bill Gates ( Janet Reno ) . Whatever you do, don't look at Bill Clinton.

BTW. Notice that the Dems pulled out the argument yesterday that George Bush wanted to have the Chinese send up military satellites. Mentioned that AL GORE wrote to him not to do so. Two very important points here:

1: Bush didn't do it after he learned the facts.

2: Dems are polishing up Al Gore and getting him ready for a squeaky clean takeover.

Wondering why the market didn't tank? Remember the derivatives market. 40 trillion dollars a day moving around and around. Who keeps tabs on it? Does anybody really know what the daily movements are? How do they the affect the price of AU? Does anybody have a handle on this???

Studio.r?

Hey, shall we chip in to buy you that pair of shoes? Oil hasn't been very good to you lately.

I am now a greedy lurker.....all take and no give. This is easy....lurking is kinda' like a vacation. I had to return the rented shoes, the jig is up....call 1 ( 800 ) SELL OIL to "hear" the real price of oil. My god, it's bad. Can buy crude futures June 2002, $17.25. Why own oil wells? GO OILTRASH!!!!

HighRise: I admit I have a very limited knowledge

of the software industry and that my post may have

been inappropriate ( my poor attempt at humor ) .

However, I am puzzled as to why Mr Gates ( microsoft )

is being villianized as the supreme controller of

all software and their application potentials.

Is'nt it reasonable for a business or inventor to

protect his/her product or invention? One has to

keep one step ( at least ) ahead of the competition,

right? If one's product or creation is readily received

or accepted by society or the consumer is this not

the choice made by them ( consumer ) , not the inventor

or business providing the product. If the inventor

or business continues to improve his product and the

consumer continues to readily purchase this product

is this not a choice of the consumer?

If I, as a competitor then complain that the consumption

of my product is impeded by the inventor's innovations

or wide spread market acceptance, is it not my

responsibility ( if I wish to compete ) to invent a

product or innovate my existing product to influence

the consumer to purchase my product instead of the

product of the original inventor?

I have a difficult time understanding why the creator

of a product should be forced to sell his conpetitor's

product along with his own.

P.S. I hope this makes sense. This is not my area

of expertise.

I'm a relative newcomer here, and don't pretend to know as much about international markets, Elliot waves, or South African gold stocks as many of you: but after a couple of months of reading most of the posts on this site, one central truth becomes overwhelming. Humour me a little and let me lead up to it: it helps my ego.
Gold is up in most world currencies: people in many places are deciding they would rather have gold than their local currency. But they would also rather have dollars than their currency. More have turned to dollars than have turned to gold. In the US most folks would rather have dollars than gold. And many would rather have stocks than dollars. Why? Because within their life experience stocks return more than dollars, and dollars return more than gold.
We can come up with many rational justifications for the idea that gold is worth more than dollars: even that dollars are relatively worthless. That won't change their minds, though, because it contradicts their life experience. They have seen commerce, and profit, and at the present time Gold is little involved in either.
The one over-arching truth is that in spite of all the conspiracy theories, and the Rockefellers, and the international bankers, and the fiat currency, there is less government interference with commerce in the USA than anywhere else in the industrialized world. This economy is a juggernaut, self-repairing, self-correcting, in the way that only a relatively free market can be. Neither the Republican Congress nor the Democratic Administration has been able to screw it up, in spite of their many ham-handed efforts, because they can't agree on how to do it! Why is Clinton popular? BECAUSE he is INCOMPETENT! He has terrible ideas, and is totally ineffectual at implementing them! But he HAS been able to prevent the Congressional majority from implementing most of their equally abhorrent legislation. So the nation prospers. And we have a prosperity which is more secure under the law ( and under the power of our military ) than just about anywhere else in the world.
Now, that may not always be the case, especially if we keep abusing the currency, downgrading the military, selling our best technology to our enemies and ignoring looming Y2K problems. But as long as it IS the case, or at least as long as it is PERCEIVED to be the case, people will prefer dollars to gold, and possibly stocks to dollars. IMHO, of course.

The idiots who killed themselves 7 decades ago weren't around to discover new opportunities or kiss their grandchildren in the following years. Such a shame that they thought their portfolio value was more important to their friends and family than their own presence in the world. Such shortsightedness!

Tolerant --Please Explain after your 5 minute Reading -Lock&Lode ( @Midas ( et al ) --- Why the PMS aren't moving: ITS A MANIA out there!! ) ID#266110:
Copyright  1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have read many posts over the past week or so, there are a lot of Kitcoites singing the blues and lamenting that AU has not taken off like a rocketship. The brief upturn for AU was just that - a brief upturn. Now, there's a brief downturn and we'll probably have another few waves back and forth. This will continue until we have a major shock to the current market forces at play out there. SO once again, the question most people have is -- why the upturn and now why the downturn? I think there are some macro trends for everyone to take into account and understand.

1. The current "Bull" Market is not a bull market - It is a MANIA! This will not end until all of the available capital out there is sucked into the vortex and consumed by the Tsunami of debt elimination. Keep in mind that both the South Sea Bubble and Tulipmania phenomena were manias that violated the economic physics of markets. Neither of these manias came to an end until they finally burst due to a lack of incoming capital to keep the ever expanding craze alive. When the same happens to the current "Bull" market, there will be a bursting of the mania bubble and this means a sudden shock to the equities markets - NOT A SOFT LANDING as so many talking heads would have you believe. And to "buy on the dips" will not be a valid strategy because such a strategy runs contrary to the physics of any mania market. If you study the Black Monday scenario of 29 and project it forward, it took another 26+ years for the DOW to recoup its value to the same levels prior to the precipitous drop. If you bought the dips as the talking heads of today recommend, then you'd have been bankrupt in only a few years ( and never made it to the 26 years necessary ) . [One source claims that it took 65 years ( factoring inflation ) for the DOW to recoup its '29 lows. --- I know that I can't afford to wait that long, so I'm not looking at buying the dips.]

2. Mutual Funds cannot abide ANY true gain in the PMs. Why? Because they are married to fiat currencies that are issued by CGs who inflate the currencies due to the demand for money. ( And right now, there is a tremendous demand for money to keep this "Bull" market going. So CGs issue more and more money in order to meet the demand to keep the market going up and going up. They issue more money to keep the fire burning real HOT !! Because this fire is great - just ask all of the broker and funds managers. ) Mutual Funds are COMPELLED to beat down PMs in order to keep the flow of money coming their way - fiat currencies are their life blood. Just like Dracula, they must continually drink the blood of their hosts ( investors ) in order to maintain 30%+ gains. Right now, there is NO OTHER PLACE TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT OTHER THAN THE STOCK MARKET / MUTUAL FUNDS. This is what every talking head spews out every day, as many times as possible. If PMs are allowed to take the wind out of the sail of Mutual Funds, then they will suddenly implode. So they must beat the PMs down at all costs - and I mean ALL COSTS. ( What's the big deal anyway, they only use paper to make paper trades to beat down the tangible and its not their money? So why do they care? ) .

3. Creation of Money ( how it comes into the marketplace ) . Currency is created by our demand for money - and right now there is a tremendous demand for money, because nobody "sees any inflation out there". Money is created out of thin air by CBs ( such as the FED ) when the demand for loans come in. Based upon the fraction system in place, Banks are able to lend out money as a multiplier of the money they have on reserve. So, if you have a checking account with a mandatory $500 minimum in order to get free-checking, then the bank is able to lend out $12,500. ( This is due to the Monetary Control Act of 1980 when banks were allowed to reduce reserves to only 4% ) . Think about it. If you're a bank, then why not offer free checking that costs you $5/month when you are able to make $85+ in interest from the $500 the account has on deposit. It's a slam dunk. --- So as long as there is plenty of demand out there for money, then the FED is very obliging in the creation of money. Because there is nothing to back the currency, such as gold, there are no restraints on the creation of money - save one - Interest Rates. As long as rates stay down, then more and more money is created by the demand for money ( borrowing ) . And the only mechanism that causes interest rates to go up is INFLATION. So, if there is no indication of inflation ( via the CPI ) , then the FED can lend out boatloads of cash. Because there is no AU out there to act as a governor, then the engine of fiat currency is able to go to a redline condition until it finally blows up in self-destruction. ( See the discussion of Inflation below ) .

4. CGs benefit BIG TIME !!! With the tremendous gains being made in the markets, CGs are getting the greatest windfalls of the century due to the taxes being generated by these gains. They have the greatest motivation to keep this thing going for as long as possible. So they respond to market demads for more money and they oblige by printing up more money so more will come their way. WHAT A DEAL! Every one wins. There are no losers. It's a new age. There are no consequences. And CGs dodge the bullets of increasing deficits and debt. But rather than taking the opportunity of salvation offered, they continue their spending and expansion with "surpluses" that don't really exist. They ignore the opportunity to heal their excesses. No, they go back to their drunken carousing of "welfare" excesses as they do even more to "care" for their constituents.

5. Inflation. The beauty of the current situation is that Inflation is not being reflected as it was in the 1970s and 1980s. My theory is based upon a phenomenon that has affected countries such as the US since the end WWII -- BABY BOOMERS. As we have seen for each stage of this phenomenon, there has always been a surge if demand created as the boomers migrate through life. The demand created by the boomers has always been reflected by price increases where their demand has been felt. First, it was a tremendous boom in the housing market and expansion of schools or anything related to children. Then, it shifted into collegiate education and the securing of employment. With employment, there was a surge of demand for all sorts of consumables as the boomers established themselves in life as adults. This created a surge in the CPI which became the single determiner of Inflation by the CGs. It was a convenient way to measure "Inflation" because this was the only place where inflation was being "felt" at the time. When CGs established the single definition of Inflation is being the CPI, then the public followed the mantra like lobotomized victims who continue to chant the same mantra over and over again - "only the CPI reflects Inflation". So now, the only definition of Inflation is the CPI. --- The dirty dark secret is that INFLATION IS REALLY BEING REFLECTED IN THE FORM OF ASSET INFLATION AND NOT THE CPI. Baby Boomers have shifted their locust-like consumption patterns to stocks, SUVs, upscale housing and the like. So now, real inflation is being stored in stocks, houses etc instead of immediate reflection in the form of price increases in the CPI. Just like a capacitor that will ultimately discharge a tremedous shock, when the attempt to sell inflated assets begins in large scale, then the mania will issue its own shock when it discharges and the value of assets will collapse. The question is - what will make the massive sell off begin? And will it be orderly? I think not. It is likely to be like the panic on the Titanic with massive selling - and it will occur before the majority has factored in the Boomer effect of retirement ( as they have factored as starting about 2003 or so ) .

6. No deflation in the West - right now. All of this baloney about the FED keeping interest rates down because of the fear of deflation is the greatest hoax of the 1990's. But no one will blow the whistle because there are too many vested interests to keep the charade going ( as per my discussion earlier - Mutual Funds and CGs ) . Think about it. If deflation was on our doorstep right now, you would see true deflationary functions at work. There would be a drop in the value of the following:

- Equities --Remember what you saw in Asia a few months ago
- Real Estate
- Autos
- Wages ( falling )
- Unemployement ( rising - and at a rapid pace )
- Defaults of loans by the droves.

If there is any question about the veracity of my statements, then all you have to do is to compare the US to Asia right now. Because Asia has ( and is continuing to experience everything that I have listed above ) . CGs are gleefully married to the CPI basis as a determiner of inflation because they don't have to raise interest rates and bring an end to this wonderful party. They do not realize that they are currently throwing gasoline onto the fire and it will blow back up in their faces. But the sudden flashes of economic activity and tax windfalls are a lot of fun right now -- so they dash on more gasoline.

7. If Deflation is so BAD then why is Inflation so GOOD? I find it absolutely amazing that deflation is the worst of the worst, and inflation is --- well -- not so bad, because we factor it into everything we do. I'm sorry, but everyone needs to wake up here. Lets look at the simple model of pH as a basis for this analysis. If Acid burns ( deflation ) and its at one extreme of the pH range, then a Base also burns ( inflation ) . Both extremes are bad because they both burn. SO -- if we need to take the most aggressive steps and active measures available to drive the stake through the heart of deflation, then we should also be taking the EXACT SAME STEPS TO DRIVE THE STAKE THROUGH THE HEART OF INFLATION. But we are not and we have not. ( As others on Kitco have stated before, there is inflation out there right now at a rate of 10%+. It is this inflation that is fueling the continuance of this mania market as funny money is being pumped in to give 30%+ returns. It is inflation that is giving the appearance of gains -- and I mean the APPEARANCE of gains ) . If I give you a wheelbarrow full of worthless paper then all you have is a lot of worthless paper. The only thing left to happen now in the asset markets, is the discovery that there is a lot of worthless paper being pumped around out there. I will return to my subject. If we are so concerned about deflation, then we should equally be concerned about 30%+ gains that continue and continue. It defies logic that a market can generate these kinds of returns without something funny going on. There is an important progression to understand. For continued 30% gains the following must take place. The DOW must:
1998 ---- 9200 expand to 12000
1999 ----12000 expand to 15600
2000 ----15600 expand to 20300
2001 ----20300 expand to 27000
2002 ----27000 expand to 35100 --- GET REAL!

A rise of this magnitude defies logic on legitimate growth. When the stock market returned 10% on average during the inflationary times of the 1960s through 1980s, then how can we get 30% returns with not inflation in the 1990s.

The 5 year sequence above reflects the NEW AGE of Nirvana that Bill Clinton and his entourage have brought to us. What the trend tells me is that we already have a tremendous amount of inflation out there and we have to continue this massive inflation in order to maintain "growth" ( really a mania and why the term mania is the proper term for this market ) .

8. When Deflation finally hits, it will become the mechanism to erase excess debt. Another part of the secret is that deflation must come. There must be a mechanism to eradicate the massive debt of CGs ( and private entities ) that has grown to unprecedented levels. As the laws of money demand, debt must be extinguished in some way. If you don't pay it off, then the things that you have bought with your borrowed money will lose their value. -- So ultimately, the excesses of your debt come home to roost and your assets are taken away from you. This law applies to CGs in the same way as it does for individuals. No one is exempt. The only difference is that Govt shifts its losses to the populace through gross devaluation and ultimately, Depression. To quote JD Davidson and Rees-Moog, "there will be a Great Reckoning". The so-called "surplus" of the US Govt is a total lie. There is no way that there is a "surplus" when you have $5.5 trillion in debt with a increasing interest debt of $450+ billion every year and growing. For you as an individual, there is no way that you could say that you had a $100 surplus on your ledger sheet when you actually had $1 million in debt. So, if a banker would double over with laughter at such a premise when you presented that arguement to him, then the populace should respond in kind when the US Govt claims the same kind of idiotic premise.

9. A temporary "containment" of Depression. The S&L debacle of 1992 was the beginning eruption of debt eradication. But at the time, any allowance of market forces to extinguish debt were viewed as being intolerable - and a policy of postponment was adopted by the US Govt. The multi-trillion dollar losses suffered due to bad investment decisions in the 1980's are real and they have not been fully factored as yet. They are temporarily being disguised and papered over with additional excesses during the 1990's. The "good credit" of the government is being continually depleted by the issuance of greater and greater amounts of fiat currency. Ultimately, it will all collapse from shear exhaustion. The continued expansion of huge debt in order to postpone a further decline in private living standards has been naively defined as a policy of "success". But keep in mind the kind of charlatans these politicians really are. This is being done by those who have a vested interest to keep the public trough open for continued siphoning of public funds for their own private benefit. By running down its own balance sheet, Govt is insuring that it will lack the capacity to rectify the worst of the suffering when the entire charade collapses. The very mechanisms that Govt uses to "take care" of people and eliminate pain, are the exact same mechanisms that are bringing economic destruction closer to a reality every day. History shows that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy, there can be no recovery until the excess is eliminated. But instead, we have made the fires of excess even hotter without any cool down ( elimination of debt excess ) . Political efforts to expand debt are enthusiastically supported as we establish more programs to take care of our children or some other identifiable group of "worthy" recipients. Continued Govt debt, lax monetary policies, credit guarantees, bailout of failing markets ( Mexico and Asia ) and other attempts by Govt only paper over the gangrenous mess that it has created. These kinds of activities bring only short-term gains to politicians who don't care about the real threat of broad economic collapse when the cycle finally plays itself out. Just like Russia collapsed due to excesses from military overexpansion ( and the like ) , the West will similarly reel from the excesses of welfare and the mentality that it has created. Govt has defined welfare predators as being victims who society must give more money to so they will victimize society even more. Then at the same time, the producers ( who keep their nose clean ) are taxed even more for "not paying their fair share" so that such money can be spent on welfare predators who car-jack "producers" and commit other similar predatory crimes. This kind of perversion will come to an end. And it is likely to do so in the form of vigilante-ism. This will be a natural outcome from the excesses that Govt created when they forced producers to "back away" while giving preferential access to the welfare predators to forage on the fruits of the producers. --- Remember, a system that guarantees no loss ( like the welfare mentality that we have today ) will ultimately be upended. Just like Russia who tried to guarantee that no one would profit ( and failed ) , the attempts of CGs to insure against failure, will also come to an end.

10. The Languishing of PMs. Until the mania comes to an end, PMs will continue to "languish" at lower than proper prices. We may see some movement of AU up to $350 or even $400/ oz. But lets get real here. The current price of AU is the same as it was 18 years ago. This says that there has been absolutely no inflation since 1980. And if you believe that, then I'll buy your house for the same price you paid for it in 1980. Kitcoites need to understand the principles. Every time AU goes down in price, its not only a great buying opportunity, but you are storing up future wealth at less than 10 cents on the dollar. Because, when the forces break loose, the value of AU will not rise to the correct market value ( that reflects true inflation ) . The value of AU will surge past this value and will bring tremendous wealth to those who had the wisdom to buy in when the price was so low. DO NOT LAMENT. Be overjoyed with the opportunity and get to work to accumulate even more. Anyone who sees a bargain and bitches about it being a bargain should take a long look in the mirror. Then keep the image in mind when the proverbial feces hits the fan and the value of your bargain brings you unfathomable wealth.

11. WB puts the Genie back in the Bottle. For those who doubt what I am saying, look at WB. He purchased 130 million ounces of Ag and was immediately viewed as being a freak by the talking heads. Remember, the only reason why we even know about his activities is due to the pressure of the Phibro suit. Otherwise, he would have pulled off his caper in complete annonymity. Then when Ag went screaming to $7.40+, he did what was needed for the FED, his Govt, and the public at large - WB took the pressure off the market by leasing forward. If he had not done this, he might have blown the lid off the cauldron and singlehandedly brought a major economic downturn to the US. If he had not put the Genie back in the bottle, he would have been labled as being the "engineer" of the drop - only so he could profit from it. --- To think that he wanted this kind of publicity is pure lunacy - it was the LAST thing in the world that he wanted. Remember, he never wanted the publicity about the Ag purchases in the first place. Keep in mind something else that may be going on. If WB was buying Ag , then why not AU too? If WB learned from his mistakes of his Ag purchases, then he will be smart to buy AU from every market accesspoint throughout the world and not only the London market ( as he did with Ag ) . There's another thing in his favor too, if he is buying AU - he can buy a lot less, and thereby create a lot less attention for the amount bought with the same $'s spent on Ag. He only needs to buy 2.2 million oz of AU vs 130 million oz - for another 5% of Berkshire/Hathaway. [NOTE: the following discussion is only a presupposition and not to be accepted as an absolute. There is no possible way to know exactly how WB might be accumulating AU unless he lets us know how.] So with that disclaimer, let's look at a scenario.


8 markets: London, Zurich, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Singapore, Japan, & Hong Kong

- 1,000 oz / day purchase @ only $300,000 / day in each market = 8,000 ounces / day

- translates into 275 days total to obtain 2.2 million ounces. -- But this takes too long

SO, if he uses other mechanisms to buy gold, such as buying even more in Hong Kong and Singapore, due to the economic turmoil and deflation, then he can accumulate 3 - 4 times the amount he is purchasing in the other markets. Another option is to purchase directly from the CGs themselves. He's the kind of guy who can potentially get this kind of access. And as long as he doesen't blow the lid off, then the CGs will continue to sell and sell. It's a great deal for both sides of the equation. Now he's cut down the time in half or less. Then he can reduce his time down even more by purchasing forward production directly from hungry mines who will do anything at current prices to stay alive. Even if WB has to pay $5 over spot, he can continue to accumulate large amounts of AU. He can devise a plan that will bring him this much AU in 90-100 days or less. And the good thing is that he can do it when everyone is looking to equities and assets to store their wealth, while WB goes through the back door to "get all the gold". Wow, what a thought. Remember, the key to this is to take everyone's eye off the ball.

There's something to think about - regarding the plausibility of the previous scenario -- Why did WB parrot the worn out axioms of "value investing" and the like when he had his Berkshire/Hathaway pilgrimmage in Omaha earlier this month? Why would he state that overvalued stocks are the place to be when we know that he bought massive amounts of bonds and then the Ag? IMHO -- the only logical conclusion is -- for him to "get the Genie back in the bottle".

Due to the overexposure of his positions in stocks, he is compelled to protecting the value of his company and his own wealth by buying bonds and Ag ( and maybe AU ) . Another option is that he is also buying Ag /Au stocks on dips as he expands his opportunities to protect himself. ( While all of what I have presented here about WB is an attempt to read the "tea leaves", WB has established a bit of a trail to follow. And if he is the value investor that he says he is, then the real values right now are in PMs. But he is getting a double bang for his buck. He's getting great value AND great protection from the devaluation of his $60,000 / share company if he holds only stock. That's why he bought bonds in 97 and Ag in 97-'98 .... and AU? in 98?


SUMMARY
The current situation with the languishing of PM market is just the calm before the storm. Everyone out there ( with the exception of Kitcoites / goldbugs ) are married to the current stock market / mutual fund MANIA. -- If you have any doubt that this is a Mania then put it to the test. Go to the grocery store and make an off the cuff comment to the checker about the continued gains you hope to make in your mutual fund. Almost assuredly, you will get a hearty affirmation and some comment about how well they're doing too. Then, go back later ( to a different checker ) and tell them how concerned you are about the overvaluation of the market which is causing you to buy AU. Now, see what kind of look you get. This proves just how brainwashed the entire public is about P/E ratios of 40 or 60 or even 221 ( as with Lucent Technologies --
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LU&d=t

-- check it for yourself if you want ) . How in the world can you justify 221+ years to pay back the value of a stock when taxes and inflation will push that out to 300+ years. WE HAVE A MANIA IN EFFECT !!!!

This means that the current market mania will continue to feed upon itself until it is finally exhausted. It is like the fire bombing of Dresden that was designed to use the flammable material of the city to assist in the burning of the entire city as more and more oxygen was sucked from miles around to feed the firestorm. This Mania will not come to an end until all of the fuel in sight is burned up - FIAT CURRENCY.

The good news is that AU is about as low as it can get. So buy more and hunker down. And as the markets stay low - BUY MORE and then BUY MORE. Do everything you can to BUY MORE. Don't worry about the little dips and the "doldrums" of the PM market right now. Look into the future. It is better to buy PMs a month, 6 months, or even a year or two too early... then it is to throw in the towel and join the ranks of the equity freaks who see an "emporer with new clothes" as they continue to buy into those overly fattened mutual funds. The current market mania will burst. Then this market will join the ranks of the South Sea debacle in the history books. Keep in mind, when history is on your side, it is best to go with the flow.


PS -- For those who argue that CGs will flex enough muscle to control markets when the downturn begins -- look at Russia. What were they able to do when the fracturing began? Their only hope was to hang onto some semblance of normalcy as the shearwinds of change roared across the landscape. Is Russia like it was before? NO!! Was Russia able to stave off the inevitable? NO!! Then why will it be any different in other countries? -- why?-- just because you don't speak Russian and it was an exclusively Russian thing that happened? Absolutely not!! The same thing that happened in Russia will sweep across the plains of the Western nations. The only difference is that we held it off longer.

The moral to the story is to BUY MORE PMs and BE HAPPY DOING IT !! This Mania has to burn itself out. Remember, every dog has its day and you will too.

If you decide to cash your paycheck at the bank, and keep the cash, are you still required to fill out those Federal forms once the amount passes $10,000 in a year? If you were to file the forms, can you expect a visit from your friendly neighborhood G-man?

Tolerant --Please Explain after your 5 minute Reading -Lock&Lode ( @Midas ( et al ) --- Why the PMS aren't moving: ITS A MANIA out there!! ) ID#266110:
Copyright  1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have read many posts over the past week or so, there are a lot of Kitcoites singing the blues and lamenting that AU has not taken off like a rocketship. The brief upturn for AU was just that - a brief upturn. Now, there's a brief downturn and we'll probably have another few waves back and forth. This will continue until we have a major shock to the current market forces at play out there. SO once again, the question most people have is -- why the upturn and now why the downturn? I think there are some macro trends for everyone to take into account and understand.

1. The current "Bull" Market is not a bull market - It is a MANIA! This will not end until all of the available capital out there is sucked into the vortex and consumed by the Tsunami of debt elimination. Keep in mind that both the South Sea Bubble and Tulipmania phenomena were manias that violated the economic physics of markets. Neither of these manias came to an end until they finally burst due to a lack of incoming capital to keep the ever expanding craze alive. When the same happens to the current "Bull" market, there will be a bursting of the mania bubble and this means a sudden shock to the equities markets - NOT A SOFT LANDING as so many talking heads would have you believe. And to "buy on the dips" will not be a valid strategy because such a strategy runs contrary to the physics of any mania market. If you study the Black Monday scenario of 29 and project it forward, it took another 26+ years for the DOW to recoup its value to the same levels prior to the precipitous drop. If you bought the dips as the talking heads of today recommend, then you'd have been bankrupt in only a few years ( and never made it to the 26 years necessary ) . [One source claims that it took 65 years ( factoring inflation ) for the DOW to recoup its '29 lows. --- I know that I can't afford to wait that long, so I'm not looking at buying the dips.]

2. Mutual Funds cannot abide ANY true gain in the PMs. Why? Because they are married to fiat currencies that are issued by CGs who inflate the currencies due to the demand for money. ( And right now, there is a tremendous demand for money to keep this "Bull" market going. So CGs issue more and more money in order to meet the demand to keep the market going up and going up. They issue more money to keep the fire burning real HOT !! Because this fire is great - just ask all of the broker and funds managers. ) Mutual Funds are COMPELLED to beat down PMs in order to keep the flow of money coming their way - fiat currencies are their life blood. Just like Dracula, they must continually drink the blood of their hosts ( investors ) in order to maintain 30%+ gains. Right now, there is NO OTHER PLACE TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT OTHER THAN THE STOCK MARKET / MUTUAL FUNDS. This is what every talking head spews out every day, as many times as possible. If PMs are allowed to take the wind out of the sail of Mutual Funds, then they will suddenly implode. So they must beat the PMs down at all costs - and I mean ALL COSTS. ( What's the big deal anyway, they only use paper to make paper trades to beat down the tangible and its not their money? So why do they care? ) .

3. Creation of Money ( how it comes into the marketplace ) . Currency is created by our demand for money - and right now there is a tremendous demand for money, because nobody "sees any inflation out there". Money is created out of thin air by CBs ( such as the FED ) when the demand for loans come in. Based upon the fraction system in place, Banks are able to lend out money as a multiplier of the money they have on reserve. So, if you have a checking account with a mandatory $500 minimum in order to get free-checking, then the bank is able to lend out $12,500. ( This is due to the Monetary Control Act of 1980 when banks were allowed to reduce reserves to only 4% ) . Think about it. If you're a bank, then why not offer free checking that costs you $5/month when you are able to make $85+ in interest from the $500 the account has on deposit. It's a slam dunk. --- So as long as there is plenty of demand out there for money, then the FED is very obliging in the creation of money. Because there is nothing to back the currency, such as gold, there are no restraints on the creation of money - save one - Interest Rates. As long as rates stay down, then more and more money is created by the demand for money ( borrowing ) . And the only mechanism that causes interest rates to go up is INFLATION. So, if there is no indication of inflation ( via the CPI ) , then the FED can lend out boatloads of cash. Because there is no AU out there to act as a governor, then the engine of fiat currency is able to go to a redline condition until it finally blows up in self-destruction. ( See the discussion of Inflation below ) .

4. CGs benefit BIG TIME !!! With the tremendous gains being made in the markets, CGs are getting the greatest windfalls of the century due to the taxes being generated by these gains. They have the greatest motivation to keep this thing going for as long as possible. So they respond to market demads for more money and they oblige by printing up more money so more will come their way. WHAT A DEAL! Every one wins. There are no losers. It's a new age. There are no consequences. And CGs dodge the bullets of increasing deficits and debt. But rather than taking the opportunity of salvation offered, they continue their spending and expansion with "surpluses" that don't really exist. They ignore the opportunity to heal their excesses. No, they go back to their drunken carousing of "welfare" excesses as they do even more to "care" for their constituents.

5. Inflation. The beauty of the current situation is that Inflation is not being reflected as it was in the 1970s and 1980s. My theory is based upon a phenomenon that has affected countries such as the US since the end WWII -- BABY BOOMERS. As we have seen for each stage of this phenomenon, there has always been a surge if demand created as the boomers migrate through life. The demand created by the boomers has always been reflected by price increases where their demand has been felt. First, it was a tremendous boom in the housing market and expansion of schools or anything related to children. Then, it shifted into collegiate education and the securing of employment. With employment, there was a surge of demand for all sorts of consumables as the boomers established themselves in life as adults. This created a surge in the CPI which became the single determiner of Inflation by the CGs. It was a convenient way to measure "Inflation" because this was the only place where inflation was being "felt" at the time. When CGs established the single definition of Inflation is being the CPI, then the public followed the mantra like lobotomized victims who continue to chant the same mantra over and over again - "only the CPI reflects Inflation". So now, the only definition of Inflation is the CPI. --- The dirty dark secret is that INFLATION IS REALLY BEING REFLECTED IN THE FORM OF ASSET INFLATION AND NOT THE CPI. Baby Boomers have shifted their locust-like consumption patterns to stocks, SUVs, upscale housing and the like. So now, real inflation is being stored in stocks, houses etc instead of immediate reflection in the form of price increases in the CPI. Just like a capacitor that will ultimately discharge a tremedous shock, when the attempt to sell inflated assets begins in large scale, then the mania will issue its own shock when it discharges and the value of assets will collapse. The question is - what will make the massive sell off begin? And will it be orderly? I think not. It is likely to be like the panic on the Titanic with massive selling - and it will occur before the majority has factored in the Boomer effect of retirement ( as they have factored as starting about 2003 or so ) .

6. No deflation in the West - right now. All of this baloney about the FED keeping interest rates down because of the fear of deflation is the greatest hoax of the 1990's. But no one will blow the whistle because there are too many vested interests to keep the charade going ( as per my discussion earlier - Mutual Funds and CGs ) . Think about it. If deflation was on our doorstep right now, you would see true deflationary functions at work. There would be a drop in the value of the following:

- Equities --Remember what you saw in Asia a few months ago
- Real Estate
- Autos
- Wages ( falling )
- Unemployement ( rising - and at a rapid pace )
- Defaults of loans by the droves.

If there is any question about the veracity of my statements, then all you have to do is to compare the US to Asia right now. Because Asia has ( and is continuing to experience everything that I have listed above ) . CGs are gleefully married to the CPI basis as a determiner of inflation because they don't have to raise interest rates and bring an end to this wonderful party. They do not realize that they are currently throwing gasoline onto the fire and it will blow back up in their faces. But the sudden flashes of economic activity and tax windfalls are a lot of fun right now -- so they dash on more gasoline.

7. If Deflation is so BAD then why is Inflation so GOOD? I find it absolutely amazing that deflation is the worst of the worst, and inflation is --- well -- not so bad, because we factor it into everything we do. I'm sorry, but everyone needs to wake up here. Lets look at the simple model of pH as a basis for this analysis. If Acid burns ( deflation ) and its at one extreme of the pH range, then a Base also burns ( inflation ) . Both extremes are bad because they both burn. SO -- if we need to take the most aggressive steps and active measures available to drive the stake through the heart of deflation, then we should also be taking the EXACT SAME STEPS TO DRIVE THE STAKE THROUGH THE HEART OF INFLATION. But we are not and we have not. ( As others on Kitco have stated before, there is inflation out there right now at a rate of 10%+. It is this inflation that is fueling the continuance of this mania market as funny money is being pumped in to give 30%+ returns. It is inflation that is giving the appearance of gains -- and I mean the APPEARANCE of gains ) . If I give you a wheelbarrow full of worthless paper then all you have is a lot of worthless paper. The only thing left to happen now in the asset markets, is the discovery that there is a lot of worthless paper being pumped around out there. I will return to my subject. If we are so concerned about deflation, then we should equally be concerned about 30%+ gains that continue and continue. It defies logic that a market can generate these kinds of returns without something funny going on. There is an important progression to understand. For continued 30% gains the following must take place. The DOW must:
1998 ---- 9200 expand to 12000
1999 ----12000 expand to 15600
2000 ----15600 expand to 20300
2001 ----20300 expand to 27000
2002 ----27000 expand to 35100 --- GET REAL!

A rise of this magnitude defies logic on legitimate growth. When the stock market returned 10% on average during the inflationary times of the 1960s through 1980s, then how can we get 30% returns with not inflation in the 1990s.

The 5 year sequence above reflects the NEW AGE of Nirvana that Bill Clinton and his entourage have brought to us. What the trend tells me is that we already have a tremendous amount of inflation out there and we have to continue this massive inflation in order to maintain "growth" ( really a mania and why the term mania is the proper term for this market ) .

8. When Deflation finally hits, it will become the mechanism to erase excess debt. Another part of the secret is that deflation must come. There must be a mechanism to eradicate the massive debt of CGs ( and private entities ) that has grown to unprecedented levels. As the laws of money demand, debt must be extinguished in some way. If you don't pay it off, then the things that you have bought with your borrowed money will lose their value. -- So ultimately, the excesses of your debt come home to roost and your assets are taken away from you. This law applies to CGs in the same way as it does for individuals. No one is exempt. The only difference is that Govt shifts its losses to the populace through gross devaluation and ultimately, Depression. To quote JD Davidson and Rees-Moog, "there will be a Great Reckoning". The so-called "surplus" of the US Govt is a total lie. There is no way that there is a "surplus" when you have $5.5 trillion in debt with a increasing interest debt of $450+ billion every year and growing. For you as an individual, there is no way that you could say that you had a $100 surplus on your ledger sheet when you actually had $1 million in debt. So, if a banker would double over with laughter at such a premise when you presented that arguement to him, then the populace should respond in kind when the US Govt claims the same kind of idiotic premise.

9. A temporary "containment" of Depression. The S&L debacle of 1992 was the beginning eruption of debt eradication. But at the time, any allowance of market forces to extinguish debt were viewed as being intolerable - and a policy of postponment was adopted by the US Govt. The multi-trillion dollar losses suffered due to bad investment decisions in the 1980's are real and they have not been fully factored as yet. They are temporarily being disguised and papered over with additional excesses during the 1990's. The "good credit" of the government is being continually depleted by the issuance of greater and greater amounts of fiat currency. Ultimately, it will all collapse from shear exhaustion. The continued expansion of huge debt in order to postpone a further decline in private living standards has been naively defined as a policy of "success". But keep in mind the kind of charlatans these politicians really are. This is being done by those who have a vested interest to keep the public trough open for continued siphoning of public funds for their own private benefit. By running down its own balance sheet, Govt is insuring that it will lack the capacity to rectify the worst of the suffering when the entire charade collapses. The very mechanisms that Govt uses to "take care" of people and eliminate pain, are the exact same mechanisms that are bringing economic destruction closer to a reality every day. History shows that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy, there can be no recovery until the excess is eliminated. But instead, we have made the fires of excess even hotter without any cool down ( elimination of debt excess ) . Political efforts to expand debt are enthusiastically supported as we establish more programs to take care of our children or some other identifiable group of "worthy" recipients. Continued Govt debt, lax monetary policies, credit guarantees, bailout of failing markets ( Mexico and Asia ) and other attempts by Govt only paper over the gangrenous mess that it has created. These kinds of activities bring only short-term gains to politicians who don't care about the real threat of broad economic collapse when the cycle finally plays itself out. Just like Russia collapsed due to excesses from military overexpansion ( and the like ) , the West will similarly reel from the excesses of welfare and the mentality that it has created. Govt has defined welfare predators as being victims who society must give more money to so they will victimize society even more. Then at the same time, the producers ( who keep their nose clean ) are taxed even more for "not paying their fair share" so that such money can be spent on welfare predators who car-jack "producers" and commit other similar predatory crimes. This kind of perversion will come to an end. And it is likely to do so in the form of vigilante-ism. This will be a natural outcome from the excesses that Govt created when they forced producers to "back away" while giving preferential access to the welfare predators to forage on the fruits of the producers. --- Remember, a system that guarantees no loss ( like the welfare mentality that we have today ) will ultimately be upended. Just like Russia who tried to guarantee that no one would profit ( and failed ) , the attempts of CGs to insure against failure, will also come to an end.

10. The Languishing of PMs. Until the mania comes to an end, PMs will continue to "languish" at lower than proper prices. We may see some movement of AU up to $350 or even $400/ oz. But lets get real here. The current price of AU is the same as it was 18 years ago. This says that there has been absolutely no inflation since 1980. And if you believe that, then I'll buy your house for the same price you paid for it in 1980. Kitcoites need to understand the principles. Every time AU goes down in price, its not only a great buying opportunity, but you are storing up future wealth at less than 10 cents on the dollar. Because, when the forces break loose, the value of AU will not rise to the correct market value ( that reflects true inflation ) . The value of AU will surge past this value and will bring tremendous wealth to those who had the wisdom to buy in when the price was so low. DO NOT LAMENT. Be overjoyed with the opportunity and get to work to accumulate even more. Anyone who sees a bargain and bitches about it being a bargain should take a long look in the mirror. Then keep the image in mind when the proverbial feces hits the fan and the value of your bargain brings you unfathomable wealth.

11. WB puts the Genie back in the Bottle. For those who doubt what I am saying, look at WB. He purchased 130 million ounces of Ag and was immediately viewed as being a freak by the talking heads. Remember, the only reason why we even know about his activities is due to the pressure of the Phibro suit. Otherwise, he would have pulled off his caper in complete annonymity. Then when Ag went screaming to $7.40+, he did what was needed for the FED, his Govt, and the public at large - WB took the pressure off the market by leasing forward. If he had not done this, he might have blown the lid off the cauldron and singlehandedly brought a major economic downturn to the US. If he had not put the Genie back in the bottle, he would have been labled as being the "engineer" of the drop - only so he could profit from it. --- To think that he wanted this kind of publicity is pure lunacy - it was the LAST thing in the world that he wanted. Remember, he never wanted the publicity about the Ag purchases in the first place. Keep in mind something else that may be going on. If WB was buying Ag , then why not AU too? If WB learned from his mistakes of his Ag purchases, then he will be smart to buy AU from every market accesspoint throughout the world and not only the London market ( as he did with Ag ) . There's another thing in his favor too, if he is buying AU - he can buy a lot less, and thereby create a lot less attention for the amount bought with the same $'s spent on Ag. He only needs to buy 2.2 million oz of AU vs 130 million oz - for another 5% of Berkshire/Hathaway. [NOTE: the following discussion is only a presupposition and not to be accepted as an absolute. There is no possible way to know exactly how WB might be accumulating AU unless he lets us know how.] So with that disclaimer, let's look at a scenario.


8 markets: London, Zurich, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Singapore, Japan, & Hong Kong

- 1,000 oz / day purchase @ only $300,000 / day in each market = 8,000 ounces / day

- translates into 275 days total to obtain 2.2 million ounces. -- But this takes too long

SO, if he uses other mechanisms to buy gold, such as buying even more in Hong Kong and Singapore, due to the economic turmoil and deflation, then he can accumulate 3 - 4 times the amount he is purchasing in the other markets. Another option is to purchase directly from the CGs themselves. He's the kind of guy who can potentially get this kind of access. And as long as he doesen't blow the lid off, then the CGs will continue to sell and sell. It's a great deal for both sides of the equation. Now he's cut down the time in half or less. Then he can reduce his time down even more by purchasing forward production directly from hungry mines who will do anything at current prices to stay alive. Even if WB has to pay $5 over spot, he can continue to accumulate large amounts of AU. He can devise a plan that will bring him this much AU in 90-100 days or less. And the good thing is that he can do it when everyone is looking to equities and assets to store their wealth, while WB goes through the back door to "get all the gold". Wow, what a thought. Remember, the key to this is to take everyone's eye off the ball.

There's something to think about - regarding the plausibility of the previous scenario -- Why did WB parrot the worn out axioms of "value investing" and the like when he had his Berkshire/Hathaway pilgrimmage in Omaha earlier this month? Why would he state that overvalued stocks are the place to be when we know that he bought massive amounts of bonds and then the Ag? IMHO -- the only logical conclusion is -- for him to "get the Genie back in the bottle".

Due to the overexposure of his positions in stocks, he is compelled to protecting the value of his company and his own wealth by buying bonds and Ag ( and maybe AU ) . Another option is that he is also buying Ag /Au stocks on dips as he expands his opportunities to protect himself. ( While all of what I have presented here about WB is an attempt to read the "tea leaves", WB has established a bit of a trail to follow. And if he is the value investor that he says he is, then the real values right now are in PMs. But he is getting a double bang for his buck. He's getting great value AND great protection from the devaluation of his $60,000 / share company if he holds only stock. That's why he bought bonds in 97 and Ag in 97-'98 .... and AU? in 98?


SUMMARY
The current situation with the languishing of PM market is just the calm before the storm. Everyone out there ( with the exception of Kitcoites / goldbugs ) are married to the current stock market / mutual fund MANIA. -- If you have any doubt that this is a Mania then put it to the test. Go to the grocery store and make an off the cuff comment to the checker about the continued gains you hope to make in your mutual fund. Almost assuredly, you will get a hearty affirmation and some comment about how well they're doing too. Then, go back later ( to a different checker ) and tell them how concerned you are about the overvaluation of the market which is causing you to buy AU. Now, see what kind of look you get. This proves just how brainwashed the entire public is about P/E ratios of 40 or 60 or even 221 ( as with Lucent Technologies --
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LU&d=t

-- check it for yourself if you want ) . How in the world can you justify 221+ years to pay back the value of a stock when taxes and inflation will push that out to 300+ years. WE HAVE A MANIA IN EFFECT !!!!

This means that the current market mania will continue to feed upon itself until it is finally exhausted. It is like the fire bombing of Dresden that was designed to use the flammable material of the city to assist in the burning of the entire city as more and more oxygen was sucked from miles around to feed the firestorm. This Mania will not come to an end until all of the fuel in sight is burned up - FIAT CURRENCY.

The good news is that AU is about as low as it can get. So buy more and hunker down. And as the markets stay low - BUY MORE and then BUY MORE. Do everything you can to BUY MORE. Don't worry about the little dips and the "doldrums" of the PM market right now. Look into the future. It is better to buy PMs a month, 6 months, or even a year or two too early... then it is to throw in the towel and join the ranks of the equity freaks who see an "emporer with new clothes" as they continue to buy into those overly fattened mutual funds. The current market mania will burst. Then this market will join the ranks of the South Sea debacle in the history books. Keep in mind, when history is on your side, it is best to go with the flow.


PS -- For those who argue that CGs will flex enough muscle to control markets when the downturn begins -- look at Russia. What were they able to do when the fracturing began? Their only hope was to hang onto some semblance of normalcy as the shearwinds of change roared across the landscape. Is Russia like it was before? NO!! Was Russia able to stave off the inevitable? NO!! Then why will it be any different in other countries? -- why?-- just because you don't speak Russian and it was an exclusively Russian thing that happened? Absolutely not!! The same thing that happened in Russia will sweep across the plains of the Western nations. The only difference is that we held it off longer.

The moral to the story is to BUY MORE PMs and BE HAPPY DOING IT !! This Mania has to burn itself out. Remember, every dog has its day and you will too.

I think this may be the big deflation you've been foreseeing. Are the lifeboats ready, sir? The passengers are getting kind of antsy over here.

Ask a better question and you will get a better answer.

from the rusty, damp Left coast

Hello RJ:

When Big Trader was about the same stuff went on. People used to parse his statements etc. One day, I snaped and made a post.

It was, "Danger like daggar now." I couldn't believe what the response was. That post, which I lifted from a "B" UFO movie, was treated with defference and awe. It was a sight.

GungaDin, you are right on every score, look up and see misery, this is reality and not $ 30,000 Gold in year 2099, yes..

And a fine gulp of Cuervo to you and yours...What the heck...one more...gulp...wishing a sunny day for you tomorrow...

Thanks for your words of appreciation.

It is self0evident that the Mexican Banks are subject to the jurisdiction of US Courts because of an agreement they entered into or their government entered into.

Only time for one post tonight, a question: If the Internet had existed in 1929, what would those who knew the score have been saying? How quickly would word have spread? How might the outome have been effected? Interesting? No?
Yours,
-EJ

I like reading a good post. Not some idiot book.
Usually anything over a few paragraphs is boring crap.

Windows 95 at home,Window NT and Unix at work, I have no diffculty with either system or yahoo,hotbot or any of the others but I prefer IE. No ax to grind on my end but sure seems to be on yours. Sorry. Shalom to you

Dear Studio.r, never thought I'd bemoan the low price of oil but below 15.50 now is anathema. Hope your contingency plans aren't too painful to pursue. Prosit, friend.

But when do you decide you've bought enough? For example, Buffet bought one heck of a lot of silver....about 2% of his assets. Those who are impatient, those who even despair, are those who risk more than they should on the immediate outcome. Don't encourage that "all or nothing" point of view. It's devestating. Say, for example, you have 100,000 to invest. If you put 5,000 in gold, 2,000 in silver, and 10,000 in mining stocks, how about another 8000 cash, 20,000 short-term bonds, and 55,000 in "normal" stocks. If the stock market tanks, and the 55,000 goes to 15,000, what do you think happens to the PM and mining stocks? It should more than make up for your loss. On the other hand, the bonds pay interest, the stocks pay dividends, and patience brings its own reward. ( these percentages are strictly theoretical, and in no way a recommendation. ) On the other hand, if you decide to make a killing and go to 80% precious metals, you are merely placing a bet. You can do that more effectively at the casino: it's quicker and the pain doesn't last as long.

You got that right. Northern Miner is a good source. It also helps to know something about ore. If you call some of these outfits, you can tell which have PR and which know ore. Thanx , Charlie

Happens to everybody, A humbling signal from God.

You need the patience of the Pharoahs to be buried with Gold, it is heavy too..

Russia down 12.69% today, Mexico will tank tomorrow, MicroSoft may find tough going from now on, has risen 20,000% since they came into existence, that is real money, what good is this honest money of 'Gold' if it cannot pay a cent in twenty years.

They will fight deflation by opening river's of money to increase consumer spending through easy credit, who can fight that. The Banks restricted credit in "Great Depression". The FED and the Banks will open flood Gates of Money, Thay have it all figured out.

I feel that the insider's are all selling gold and coupled with inflow into US dollar from abroad has kept it down.

Who know's ??

Tolerant Speed Reader---Sort of ---faster than Not Gold ---Maybe Silver ---Nooooo How about I Lost my thrill on blueberry Hill Away to see Eb do tricks with viscera.

Hope tomorrow brings renewed hope....

Date: Mon May 18 1998 09:54
sharefin ( Y2k bank story - what to expect. ) ID#284255:

Follow-up comment:
~~~~
I just received a call back from Sandra Copney, VP of Telephone
Banking for Nation's Bank ( 813-890-3015 ) in response to my call to
Jackie Brabum. Ms. Copney told me that she would field my questions
instead of Ms. Brabum. Ms. Copney said that she might have to do some
research, but would be happy to get back to me on any questions I
might have.

I asked when Nation's Bank would be complaint. She said "Our *goal*
is to be finished in December 1998 so we can test in 1999." Good
answer. This is the standard party line for every Y2k project on
earth. I asked about their vendors and suppliers. She would not
guarnatee them. Good answer. ( If she did, she would be in serious
legal problems. ) I asked about power. She said they had extensive
UPS and generators for their major computer installations. She also
said they have a team of 200 people working on Y2k. She also said
that they haven't completely educated their staff on how to answer
these questions when I told her I was perplexed about the differing
answers at the different levels of the organization.

I did not ask about the Nation's Bank and Bank of America merger.

If you are a Nation's Bank customer, I'd start with Ms. Copney. But
unless you know how to ask questions like Paul Milne or are very
educated on the impact of Y2k to the banking systems, you'll end up
having a false sense of security.

Personally, I don't trust the banks or utilities. I've seen too much,
and know better. However, what you do is up to you.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Why is the world waiting?
No optimism - no pesimism
Just flat markets.

I think the world is waiting to see what the Mighty Dow will do.

Notice in that report on the Russian bourses.
The comment about a change of heart?
Sentiment is turning.

The World's woes are swinging on the US sentiment.
When that turns- watch out.

Well said, hooray for the freeeee market

Donal posted an article on a case that the Mexican Supreme Court agreed to hear on the issue of capitalization of interest. That there was a possibility that the Mexican Supreme Court could hold against the capitalization of interest caused a great stir on Wall Street.

I think we should consider the indictment of the Mexican Banks in connection with the issue of capitalization of interest. The rules and regulations of The Bank are that interest can and shall be capitalized. The indictment of the Mexican Banks on money laundering charges is a statement saying, "No matter what the Mexican Supreme Court decides under the Constitution and laws of Mexico, these banks are going to capitalize interest if The Bank says so because the jurisdiction for the agreement is in our Courts." It will calm Wall Street.

Got an agreement with The Bank ?

I've been lurking on this site for almost a year, and posting rarely for about six months.

Out of all the postings that I've ever seen, I would rate your posting as the NUMBER ONE posting of them all. It was well-thought, insightful, and sadly truthful almost beyond my comfort zone. Nonetheless, I feel that your posting is worthy of permanent preservation...even into the mid to late 21st Century...as being one of the all-time best discussions of the financial tulip-mania ( oooooops, I mean stock market mania ) explanations of the late 20th Century. I sincerely hope that your posting, in its entirety, gets into the history books for people in the 22nd Century to read as an example of what happened prior to the great stock market crash of the stock market mania of the late 20th Century.

Truly you are correct in calling this financial disaster ( waiting to happen ) a mania rather than a bull market.

Thank you for taking the time to write such an insightful posting. Personally, I believe it to be the best posting that I have ever read concerning the financial events of the world today.

--Skip

GungaDin---Well said Enough said ---You got it ---You have it ---Now play with it ---The joy of tossing coins Uppp and Down---The Player among Players ---The Winner among losers --

Gold is more than a bet, even at a high percentage of assets. A bet at a casino risks all. 100% investment in gold does not at todays prices. In my opinion as a student of supply, demand, and marginal costs gold cannot sustain prices below $300. High demand coupled with mine closures, yada, yada, yada.

Therefore, a 100% investment in an asset at it's price bottom is not a gamble as it does not risk capital. The risk is the opportunity cost of the investments which might have done better. Opportunity costs do not hurt as bad as losing 50% of your assets in "the market". Talk about gambles, the stock market at todays prices, WHEW!

The falseness of many of Kitco's jousts between goldbugs and stock market cheerleaders is the use of historical statistics. That was then, this is now. $100,000 invested TODAY would be well advised to hold a major component of precious metals. What I often see on Kitco are people arguing that $100,000 in the stock market today was $10,000 ten years ago while $100,000 in gold today was $150,000 ten years ago.

Thats interesting but does not evaluate the markets on todays merits. The stock market 10 years ago was very low and most investors stayed away. The gold market is very low today and most investors stay away. What will things look like in ten years?

Reuters, Monday, May 18, 1998 at 22:28

The broadcast by Indonesian President Suharto scheduled for 0200 GMT has been delayed while the president meets with some national leaders. It was not immediately clear when the broadcast would begin.

O.K. Palladium went up on wild short covering.
I still think it looks kind of strange for PA
to win over PL, but market rules...I'll live
with that for a while.

I know about "unlimited" supply problem, but
do you feel that gold can play the same joke
with shorts in 1998?

That is the "critical price" of gold ( if any ) to cause
potential "total" shortcovering ? ( $340, $350, etc. )

Sorry, correction: "That is"=What is...

I know what happened to a great many wise folks in '29. Many of them got out in '28 with tremendous gains, cautious due to overly high valuations. Historians tell us that, sadly, a great many of them lost their resolve seeing the even juicier gains of '29, and got in just in time to lose it all. This happened to many.

You won't be surprised to learn that this has all been seen before. A high IQ is no guarantee that you won't fall prey to greed in a mania. No less than Mr. Gravity himself, Sir Issac Newton, managed to get in and out of the South Seas Bubble after doubling his money, about 5,000 pounds in all. BUT - before the mania ended, he succumbed once again; he was fully invested at the end, and lost at least 20,000 pounds sterling. For the rest of his life, he continued to be very grumpy about his foolishness, and nevermore would tolerate anyone mentioning the South Sea Company in his presence.

One level head of his period is quoted as saying, "The additional rise above the true capital will only be imaginary; one added to one, by any stretch of vulgar arithmetic will never make three and a half, consequently all fictitious value must be a loss to some person or other first or last. The only way to prevent it to oneself must be to sell out betimes, and so let the Devil take the hindmost. ( translates roughly to: "Dogs bite the laggards" ) .

Read and reread that last paragraph! In the end, it was the WINNING formula.

Namast

Skip ---Tolerant and Vronsky are the Posters to thank I have shorted Gold for the last year and continue in my wayward ways These posters deserve your true bullishness Me thinks you made a boo boo

GungaDin, it sounds like we have similar investment sentiments, except I try to invest a percent of income instead of percent of wealth. I find that through the years my market timing skills are lousy. Or perhaps I'm just indoctrinated by the USAA funds 'cornerstone' mindset, sticking with an allotment formula and trying to avoid temptation to change it much.IMHO

Robnoel_A: Pithy words. ( 8-^] ) But I'm a firm believer that words are wasted on socialists. They cannot comprehend language outside their dielectic. They remind me of the people who like to ring doorbells at 8 AM on Saturday to tell you about their church, best shut out quickly and without letting them bug you too much. IMHO

I honestly don't recall what was on the little bank index cards I signed. Who does? Thanks for the ( as usual ) stunning information. Feeling a little like the boxer in the Simon & Garfunkle song.

say your sorry for making money, especially on gold.

Tom

at these lofty levels in the equity markets, if your long, you gotta hope there's someone out there stupider than you are. Since there's a fool born every minute, there is a pretty decent supply of them to go around. But as any first year economics student knows, when demand outstrips supply ( of in this case people as bright as 2 watt light bulbs ) , the bubble bursts.
I believe we're putting in a rounded top in the Dow now, and if so, we may see a downward move before the end of May. Peter Eliades ( whom I respect ) had a good article in Barron's two weeks ago that from a cycle point of view, thinks this bubble is living on borrowed time.
Maybe.

Oil is $11.50/bbl in the morning....did you try the toll free #....1 ( 800 ) SELL OIL?.... I'm curious if it works for out-of-state access. And thanks for your kind concern. Garcias, amiga.

at these lofty levels in the equity markets, if you're long, you gotta hope there's someone out there stupider than you are. Since there's a fool born every minute, there is a pretty decent supply of them to go around. But as any first year economics student knows, when demand outstrips supply ( of in this case people as bright as 2 watt light bulbs ) , the bubble bursts.
I believe we're putting in a rounded top in the Dow now, and if so, we may see a downward move before the end of May. Peter Eliades ( who I respect ) had a good article in Barron's two weeks ago that from a cycle point of view, thinks this bubble is living on borrowed time.
Maybe.

Donal posted an article on a case that the Mexican Supreme Court agreed to hear on the issue of capitalization of interest. That there was a possibility that the Mexican Supreme Court could hold against the capitalization of interest caused a great stir on Wall Street.
" ( Cash Question ) ID#255151:
If you decide to cash your paycheck at the bank, and keep the cash, are
you still required to fill out those Federal forms once the amount
passes $10,000 in a year? If you were to file the forms, can you expect
a visit from your friendly neighborhood G-man?"

Well, if he does show up just say you are too busy to talk. You have the right to remain silent.

But, what are the forms of which you speak ? You are not making a cash transaction.

Speaking of the Form 8300, I think it is, certain coin dealers are turning in reports when the cumulative amount of purchase exceeds $10,000. I do not think this is within the meaning of the Statute because it is not even within a careful reading of the instructions which themselves are not a substitute for reading the Statute. The instructions are not a defense either. Grocery stores are "retail outlets". Do you think grocery stores are required to keep track of your purchases and turn in a Form 8300 when you spend more than $10,00 cash for groceries in a year ? The coin people are just intimidated. Somebody is going to have to sue one to stop this unlawful reporting.

Henry D -

Common decency played no part in the numerous attacks made on me just because I said gold would fall to exactly where it fell before. I simply said gold will do what it did a couple months ago; I did not bring in all sorts of mysterious machinations and speak of 30K gold. My posts have been treated with grave disrespect, yet my words pointed the truer course. Perhaps if I were to write in quatrains and parables people would find the wisdom within. Seems speaking plain is not good enough.

I have noticed Henry, that you care little for the negative side to this forum. Perhaps when I am next roundly attacked, you will come to my defense as publicly as you have disdained my own posts, or are your words of wisdom only reserved for those you agree with?

Sharefin -

You have a kind and trusting soul. Yet reality does not leave you blinded by your fealty. When you wake to find the world as it is, you will call it thus and put away yesterdays beliefs now proven wrong. I call this clear vision, and you see far.

IDT -

Never heard of Veneroso.

TYoung -

My target on platinum has been focused on the June contract for months. I will buy all I can at these levels. These prices are a gift. I still believe we will se massive gains by the first week in June. That is the short term outlook, longer term, I believe platinum will settle into a 450 - 600 trading range over the next couple years.

Rob ( RJ & Another ) @ "When Big Trader was about the same stuff went on. People used to parse his statements etc. One day, I snapped and made a post. It was, "Danger like dagger now." I couldn't believe what the response was. That post, which I lifted from a "B" UFO movie, was treated with deference and awe. It was a sight.

Rob -

These are the truest words I have read today. Mystery is sexier than day to day trading, especially when it panders to a particular bias. This is why the world will always have fraud, for people want it this way. For those who doubt, look at your elected representatives.

In-Damn-Deedy

Yes

If you are still interested try http://www.amradiotrader.com

Gold has nearly bottomed.

A sense of honor shown in your post. Nice, very nice. Thanks.

Tom

SDRer: I think you have hit a gold mine with the carful review of the BIS articles. Your 21:20 says boatloads -- Article 20 indicates the BIS chooses to deal with countries that wish to have a gold standard. I think it goes without saying that the new BIS China office indicates where they will deal -- not with Europe -- not with the IMF -- not with the USA. With China. It will be interesting to see if the BIS sets up an office in a Moslem country. Is it surprising that their home office is in Basel, Switzerland? Not at all.

I have one caveat for the BIS. The whole reason for their existence is the security of gold -- its scarcity and durability makes it an ideal currency. The problem is this -- the nuclear threat shifts the balance somewhat, because gold does not offer the security it once did -- a nuclear confrontation can make gold worthless ( or nonexistent ) in a flash. Perhaps the BIS/Rothschilds are hedging their bets by diversifying at several sites around the world. I would.

themissinglink: You are right, of course, except that I am reading posts that sound like "do I have to sell my gold to pay my bills?". Anything that depends on short-term results is a bet. If it is made with funds which may be needed for everyday expenses, it is a foolish bet. Granted that gold cannot totally lose its value, I think what we sometimes miss is that it is merely a STORE of value which will ultimately be used to purchase something else. It has value not in and of itself, but only in relation to what it can provide. Gold on a desert island is worthless, unless there is transportation available. To much of the world I suspect it's current value is closely tied to its ability to produce dollars on demand: which in turn are valued because they produce goods such as oil. For me, I value it as a repository of value which can be used at a later date to purchase assets whose price, in terms of gold, I believe will fall. This may be dollars, or stocks, or land, or commodities: I don't know for sure. But I do agree with you that gold is historically undervalued in terms of all these things, and that the situation must eventually change. I'm just very aware that the same thing could be said five, ten, fifteen years ago, and if you factor in the earnings of those other assets in the mean time, gold comes out behind the crowd. I would not buy heavily into the stock market at today's prices, but neither am I ready to abandon it completely: might be a couple of years early. Or, of course, not.

Gagnrad: Ahh, a kindred spirit. moderation in all things. Rationality, recognizing that just because one is rational does not mean everyone else will be, too. Making the right investment works only if you can wait a long time for the results. Asset allocation: a good idea. My revealation has been to include PM investments for the first time. I like it, but I'm not ready to go overboard with it. Looks to me like the world prefers dollars first, maybe gold later, and, after the bottom falls out, back to equities. I'm not smart enough to time that exactly, but I bet I can catch some of it. What do you think?

Oris -

Gold will need to break 330 coupled with negative economic news ( worse than a quarter-point rise in interest rates ) and a loss in confidence in the Dow before everyone will cover their shorts. It is not speculative shorting that has hurt, or will hurt gold in the future, it is CB sales and forward sales responsible for these price levels. Absent those conditions listed above, any gold rally is doomed to be capped off by producer selling.

If at least two of the three conditions above exists, you will see modest short covering with an eye toward selling the next rally. Only when all three conditions are met, will gold offer a sustained rise. I will not ride shorts that high. If we hit above 325 or below 295, I will cover my existing shorts.

Yes

Gosh, you do not have the right to remain silent if you have an agreement with The Bank and its rules and regulations require you to answer questions. So, if you have an agreement with The Bank, do not assume you have aby rights. How would you know anyway if you can't get a copy of the rules and regulations ?

KGB wants to hire you to manage its gold...

Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Well, I distinguish three types of currency,

gold backed
just paper
gunpowder backed.

Dollar, it appears to be a gunpowder backed currency.
What that means is that USG obligations are backed by its' ability to expropriate wealth from its' subjects. Big time lenders to USG bet exactly on this power - to tax to death.

It follows, the trust in US$ will remain strong as long as USG is percieved strong enough to collect taxes to the satisfaction of its lenders.
It follows, since debt is US$ denominated, that those lenders are interested in keeping PM down -- otherwise there interest will evaporate.

The very fact of Bill Clinton re-election gives this believe in readiness of US citizens to be taxed to death a solid ground.
It follows, only a major revolt of US taxpayers against taxation ( like electing Forbes ) and against the ever increasing
power of USG ( like refusal of FBI to replicate Waco ) will crack this confidence.

It follows, that Japanese are interested in keeping gold down. British are also. Other major lenders to USG are also.

Any thoughts?