Your 800-sell-oil number did work in California. $11.50 for sweet crude?

No wonder you're lurking. If you start posting tonight you're likely to tell us all what's really on your mind, then Bart will have to kick you off.

I'm just sitting on the fence - eyeing both sides -0-0--

Is there a reason why Aussie producers shouldn't sell forward?
$ tumbling - exports failing - gloomy outlook ahead.

They have to sell to stay alive.
Banks in OZ are tightening up on loans.

Just entered "8300 form" on Inference Search ( http://www.infind.com/ ) Wow. They're pretty serious. If you "willfuly" refuse to file form 8300, could get up to 5 years in jail. If you even "try to make it look unnecessary that you should file an 8300", same thing. Tolerant1 asked a question regarding Y2K and prisons. Heh heh, I don't want to be the on-scene reporter for Kitco on that one!

Morgan Guaranty was a major seller of silver in Europe last night. Asia will open to a flood of sell stops, If we see evidence of short covering in Europe tonight, that could spell the direction. I will say in all immodesty: I don't have a clue on where silver will land next. It decisively broke the 200 day moving average but is camped on major 7 or 8 month support right now. If it breaks lower, the charts will not tell you where it will stop.

I expect some sell stops to hit in platinum in Asia tonight, but the June contract is nearing and time for games are nearing an end. Long platinum is the only protection against short palladium.

Gold is in a coma.

Yes

Doesn't look good for Hard Assets or the S&P.
They are both rolling over.
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/G/GHACX.html

HighRise

http://www.venerosogold.com/SERV05.HTM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Email chatter:
~~~~~~~~~~~~
The warrior from Little Rock is now an expert on Economy. Make him the Fed Chairman after his presidency!
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980518/15/tech-clinton

Fleckenstein was on cnbc this morning and said he thinks the Fed will squeeze the money supply. ( Take some out ) Sounds like a nice compromise for AG.

He could also raise the margin requirement for stocks, instead of interest rates.
Kind of a scary thought. However, I think he is too much of a pussy-cat.

As far as Willy goes.-- They use to call him "Slick Willie". They should change that now to "Willie the Cat". He always lands on his feet running. All the other cow pokes get trampled in the stampede as the "Cat" trots off into the sunset.

-- raise the margin requirement for stocks??--
Probably catch Hillary in the Squeeze and get his tail feathers shot off. She "ain't" in no mood to have anymore trouble come her way.

""asking Mr. Softy to distribute Netscape to its customers."" Should be interesting to watch 2 - 800 lb Gorillas go after each other. Evening news said Mr. Softy could outspend the DOJ. Why not just buy the DOJ and fire everybody.

1. I was AMAZED to discover that IBIS had assigned a Standard ISO 3166 Alpha-3 to the Gold France ( we must now capitalize the august words! )

2. I was ASTONISHED to find that BIS can perform, for a corporation, bank or individual, any operation it performs for a central bank! ( One had supposed that the central bank of central banks dealt with...well...central banks!

There have been several other revelations, but one can deal with only so many shocks... Interesting thought about nuclear dispersal of assets--hadnt occurred to me at all. BIS however, keeps NO gold at the Basle site. One wonders where they DO 'park it'...

All: Are we getting stirred up about BigTrader and ANOTHER again? I don't see what all the fuss is. All one needs to remember is that any ( underline any ) source must not be taken at face value with confirmation. Anyone who blindly follows the advice of another does so at their own risk. What I like about ANOTHER is the his posts make me think about concepts I have not considered. I have also been annoyed on numerous occasions when concepts were blown out of proportion. I do not care what ANOTHER really is -- a novelist -- someone masquerading to be what he is not -- it does not matter. The ideas matter. In fact I don't even care if ANOTHER is wrong. He is no trader, so short term markets are probably not his strong suit.

RJ: I would like very much to hear your opinions about Frank Veneroso, as he has quite a following. Are you kidding when you say you know nothing about him? If you do not, I think you will find his Gold book interesting ( expensive ) , and I think your colleagues should have a copy, even if he does not think like a trader.

By the way, I would guess that you have Pierre Lassonde's Gold Book. That I think is one of the best books about gold/gold stock investing ever written -- only 15 bucks Canadian, too! I think Pierre Lassonde is head and shoulders about Peter Munk. I think he has some contrarian opinions about forward gold sales, too! His Franco Nevada and Euro Nevada have done very well.

I have 30% of my liquid assets in gold mutual funds, bought last Friday on the assumption that we are in a short term bottom, and that the gold rally will continue. My intuitive guess is that we are repeating a cycle very similat to the 1993 rally, where this time silver is the leader of the pack. Gold will be pulled up by the silver rally -- which should spike up in the next month or so -- similar to the Sept - Dec 93 gold rally. Perhaps a crisis in Russia will do it -- some sort of international crisis where gold/silver is bought, not sold.

If our gold rally tanks, I will bail out and wait. Have made 10% of total liquid assets this year.

He told me that it was one of the best buys on the VSE right now! I will call him tommorow and post my DD tommorow night!

and since I'm here: ponder this--USG CB Gov.didn't assume its
seat on the board until 1994--which means, according to
Chapter IV of the Statutes, that USG CB was no doubt represented by either a bank/banker or a representative of finance, industry or
commerce...for DECADES!

Ready for a drop?:
http://www.amcity.com/dayton/stories/051898/editorial1.html

Asian currencies tanking again tonight. Consider the pressure on HKong and China to devalue.
It seems to me this anticipated devaluation should result in huge physical buying in those two countries. Probably happening right now.
The only alternative is the $, but only a little buying drives gold at these levels. I see the $ moving up against all other currencies with gold, but with gold edging out the other a bit. A bit longer term, the fate of the dollar is the same as its Asian counterparts.
The Euro to me is a wildcard.

...it is interesting to watch the reactions...the eyes light up, the wheels turn round silently inside their heads, absorbed in deep thought with that concentrated, far away stare...

Financial opportunists have the best poker faces in the world...but the curl in their mouths always give them away...

That's the muted reaction great opportunity inspires...

The path from epiphany to action is quicky traversed...

The rules of etiquette are broken when someone yells "GOLD!" inside a near empty COMEX vault.

Or when someone points out that "THE SWISS WEAR NO GOLD!"

Thanks.

F*

SDRer: I would guess that the BIS diversifies their assets by 'parking' their gold where it can stimulate the most economic activity -- in appropriate countries or enterprises that they trust -- where the 'rules of exchange' are obeyed. I still don't know how they enforce the rules that the US flaunted back in the 70's. Then the BIS called in their chips ( road to Ramboullett ) , and the US and IMF had to back down from selling gold and devalued the dollar instead. The BIS must have had some really strong leverage.

Buy the way, I think another very interesting thing to know would be how the BIS can send gold to another country, and still retain control over it.

I have only one question. Who will our politicans blame ?

...in the trajectory of the precious...

If you like Vegas, then it is the perfect time to make a visit to the GOLDEN NUGGET.

Thanks.

F*

I am unable to identify any "just paper" tender. All fiat paper issued by governments is gunpowder backed.

The purpose of the 16th Amendment was to give those lenders who joined the Federal Reserve System which was enacted into law in the same year precisely that confidence that the USG could tax enough to feed the ravening maw of usury.

As I think through the snares they are laying now, I see that this agreement with The Bank provides the ultimate assurance to the usurers that the USG can collect to pay them. Because it takes the taxpayer out from under the protection of the Constitution. The prosecutor will point out to the judge in chambers the existence of your agreement with The Bank. The judge will take silent judicial notice. The defendant in a tax case will never understand why his case went down in flames and why the Constitution was not relevant. Everyone will be intimidated. Only if you are not one of theirs, will they leave you alone.

It is all this simple. They, the userers, the government that is in debt to them, and the people in government, live on your payments. The $US lives on your payments.

in any paper. Some guys at work think that all they need to do is take out a couple thousand in advance and everything will be OK. I say never mind the paper, what happens if many say "I think I'll take physical posession of my Au/Ag, etc. in advance of y2k just to be safe and start changing their certificates/futures/options etc into the real stuff. And taking physical posession of gold and silver company shares. Could be very interesting as gold shortage occuring at same time as loss of confidence in paper due to gov't having tax collection problems after 1/1/2000. IMHO.

that I have until I see what happens with Y2K. What I am buying will sit.

sharefin: One thing is likely -- after the current turmoil is over in SEASia, the US markets and the dollar will head up. Flight to safety -- just like the prelude to 1929 when the US markets were the last to stand.

Didn't they raise margin rates near the end too? Eventually the US markets will fall -- but probably not till 1999.

Notice the big turmoil in Mexico and Russia? And all the forest/brush fires in Mexico. Perhaps the ElNino effect in SEAsia is being duplicated this summer on this continent -- frightening thought if the script plays out again.

A key question is just how stable South America is, and how nervous Europe gets if Russia has just had a coup de tat. At best, continuation of the rolling devaluations, IMHO. At worst, big time trouble ahead.

German marks in times of Weimar republic.
Russin ruble of Yeltsin era.

To those who think $30000 !oz gold is crazy -- germans were of your opinion until a postamrk get to 1000000. Just a fact.

I can not understand why the world is so focused on CHINAs urgent need to devalue--so her GDP will drop from 8.x to ( worst case ) 5.8...she has reserves, no labor unions, no elections and fifty years of a riot a week...so the troops are REALLY experienced at putting them down...not a problem!

On the other hand, the USG has a growing, growing trade problem--for example, last month USG biggest export was ENTERTAINMENT...now that might just be a problem ...rioting in the street tends to cut down of theater receipts, yes? USG has a ragingly strong currency which is choking her exports...in a rational evaluation, who NEEDS to devalue their currency? Makes one think of Hamlet and Denmark...{:- )

Unless you are the "retail outlet", you don't file reports on Form 8300. The language has definitely intimidated more people than merely you. You ain't heard nothin' yet. Wait til they are talking death penalty. Do you really think the userers will not go to that extreme if they think they must to keep their payments coming ? All by your agreement with The Bank ruled on outside the Constitution.

0uch

Y2K news:
I live in a remote area of southern Arizona. Even sadder than where I live is that most folks outside major metropolitan areas dont even know what Y2K is!
After using a local ATM I checked the receipt. Sure enough, xx/xx/98. I asked the teller inside when their machine would be switching over to the four digit year system. She stated she didnt know but probably when
it ran out of room.
I had nothing to say.
What can you say.

Any word yet on the total $ amount seized from all those Mexican banks?
You can bet there are plenty of angry dope smugglers?
The border is going to be deluged in drug loads in an effort to make up
these losses. Buy plenty of 3 x 9 scopes and 308 ammo.

China can no longer sell into Asia,it has to sell to the US against devalued currenceies all around it???

Visit golden eagle and read John Kutyan's latest article.
IMF & Economic Sovereignty / addresses the China situation.

RJ: A little bit about F Veneroso, complements of sharefin.

http://www.venerosogold.com/serv01.htm

Well, the reichsmark and ruble were not just paper. They were gunpowder backed. Up until November of 1923 the German Courts enforced ( read gunpowder ) tender by the depreciating reichsmark. This ruined all lenders. Bond holders. Mortgage holders. Pensioners. They were all paid off for less than the current price of an egg.

I daresay Russian Courts also enforced tender by Ruble. They must. It is their legal duty to enforce legal tender.

China is for the most part a closed society, but they have to export
to live in the international world. For example you and I could could make a fortune doing each others laundry?? Would we make even more if we both raised our prices? They have goods piled to the sky with no one to sell to. Their prices are too high! They become competitive by de valuing. This has to end some where and soon. Next thing they will be giving away free buckets of gold when you open up a checking account.

The U.S. dollar and gold already *have gone up together*

Just ask a knowlegeable person in most any country in the
world, other than the U.S.

Most plastic junk we see has "Made in China'
Written on the bottom.

I think they want to remain competative with Asian countries
Exporting the same necessary junk.

If China's export markets dried up.
What then?

It would not be good.
It is already not that good.
The pressure is already there.

American entertainment?
Speaks for itself.
Pumping the masses.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
JTF
I think we have seen a 'Flight to Safety'
Over the last few months.
Yes, it can continue for longer.

But that only creates a bigger bubble.

I don't think there is a pure currency anywere, all are a mixture of
gold, paper and gunpowder components, but the examples were the closest to the paper I know of. When debts are paid, but at a ridiculous price of one egg, that's the strong move towards the paper.

Your jails are safe it's their computerized record systems that might
go out. All those facilities have stand alone power systems and the doors are also equiped with manually operated keys. I would think the jail would move all the inmates due for release in 1/1/00 to a separate wing of the facility prior to new years eve. I still wouldnt pick up any hitchhikers!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/98/05/19/980519_81.htm

I doubt this will save him.. This live broadcast very interesting.
Quite long address to Indonesian nation retelecast through Australia
under live translation.
Steve Blizard

ABC radio, the yen is trading in Japan at a seven year low against the US dollar, over 136.

JTF -

I can disprove much of what is said about gold on the link you gave me; using God's mathamatics and common numbers of reference.

Not saying a whole lot more than any one of several dozen gold sights yet this guy cost $8K? Seems there are cheaper ways to aquire propaganda.

Like here

Yep

up 1.70 from afternoon close of 1108.30. PLN down $0.70 @ 394.0A; GCM down $0.10 @ 300.1A and SIN down 57 @ 523.0B. SP500 trading typically light and meaningless at this time of night.

A Perth woman allegedly used a stolen credit card to withdraw $51,800 from automatic teller machines ( ATM's ) over two days.
The woman made 52 seperate withdrawals from two seperate ATM's.

Police where unable to explain how so much cash could be withdrawn in such a short time, overridding the usual $1,000-a-day withdrawal limit.

"It was probably a computer fault, but that's speculating."

sharefin: Agreed -- a bigger bubble. I remember doing a calculation of the rate of rise of the US markets in 1929, and now. Interestingly, if you do the calculation based on rate of rise, the US markets have some time before they duplicate 1929. Perhaps 1999 will be the critical year for the US markets.

FWIW
May 20 minor high,May 22 low and completion of cycle.
June 9 high,June 15 low,June 25 high.
Major turning point July 30 low,
Major turning point high November 10
Happy trading

aztec The only people allowed to profit from drugs are those authorized to do so by Washington DC. Drug Lords is a silly propaganda phrase. Why don't they call them pharmacists ? It's just spin. The Bank wants interest payments from peasants from those Mexican Banks.

Thomas I suppose if I gave you a slip of paper that said I.O.U that had no proper legal form or foundation, that would be just paper. But if it is issued by a government, it has that government's gunpowder backing it. Until the government runs out of gunpowder anyway. Which you might say is what happended in Weimar and in Yeltsin's Russia.

not noticed before...

The bad news is--they all look very threatening...

Could/Would you tell me what this means? About a small town in US...

Legal Status: General Law Town
Incorporated: 8/5/1924

Is there some handbook, How to be a Citizen not a Serf?

I just emailed an interesting HTM file to you.

It speaks volumes.

What are your feelings about the June 25 gold rally and subsequent July decline?

For 8 grand I can tell you to buy gold now and hold it until you think you have made enough money. I can also tell you to buy 50,000 shares of CAU every time it hits $1 and sell them every time it hits $1.12. I can also tell you to buy any gold company producing at less than $275/oz and sell that company when gold hits 310. .........

$8000/yr. FV, stop already ya killin me!

Please show us where Mr. Veneroso has gone wrong.

RJ: I know only a few things that fit with FV's view.

1 ) The equilibrium price os gold is about $600/oz, based on the last one hundred years of the CPI. That I can show mathematically with confidence.

The only way I could be wrong about this would be if the CPI plummeted, and that is unlikely, given what AG et al do whenever deflationary events become evident.

2 ) The CB's must continue to sell gold ( or loan it ) to maintain the current price of gold at 300/oz. They will eventually be unable to do this and the dollar/gold carry will unravel.

So -- the price of gold will go up ( in US dollars ) eventually. Probably as FV says - only to $350/oz or so for some time.

Where we need your expertise is the when in the above. I think where you are coming from is that you know it is not going up for a time. I think you and Oldman ( or D.A. ) are far better qualified on that matter than F Veneroso.

If China devalues: China won't buy as many US dollars worth of
"entertainment," or anything else, as any imported goods will be
more expensive. Also, seems as though most items for sale in stores
around here, especially toys, and flotsam-jetsam, are made in China.
With new, lower prices even more stuff will be made in China and
exported to the U.S. At some point the U.S. jobs lost to imported
goods will cause an uproar. That point would surely come along
with U.S. job layoffs when the bubble bursts. China would be
blamed. I can envision the pendulum swinging back toward
trade barriers world-wide.

Also, if China devalues, that will cause another round of regional
devaluations and price-cuts, i.e. profit-margin bleeding. Then how
will Japan ( for instance ) earn any profits to reverse their tenuous
financial situation? John Kutyn has written several brilliant essays
on the asian devaluation situation.

And of course, the more desperate Japan gets, the faster they will
sell their U.S. treasuries. This scenario somehow reminds me of the
little old lady and the president of the bank- story. Not sure why.

Up 6%

What's the news?

"The bad news is--they all look very threatening..." I know the feeling.

Could/Would you tell me what this means? About a small town in US...
Legal Status: General Law Town
Incorporated: 8/5/1924

It means the government of the town is a corporation. It's governing by administrative law enacted by the State legislature. The snares of admission in administrative law are a class unto themselves. Just getting started there. But, I know asking permission can waive a right. For the meaning of General Law Town you have to refer to the Statutes of the State. Generally, a regulation might be enacted at the State legislature which would mandate the promulgation of an ordinance by cities, but leave the promulgation of an ordinance based on the State optional for Towns. As a side note, there were big changes in the decade of the twenties in government and law which I have not figured out yet. But, I believe there was a fiscal crisis and maybe even government bankruptcy that preceded the Depression.

Is there some handbook, How to be a Citizen not a Serf? Start at the Behold! site. They also say you cannot have a bank account, but until I saw the connection with the agreement with The Bank, I did not understand why. Now I do.

I live the USG's dog and pony show everyday. They dress up the players with helicopters, sensors, guns, mirrors, cameras, tarrot cards, infrared scopes, coffee makers, four wheel drives, observation towers, patrols, canine units, bullet proof vests, computers, etc in an effort to show the taxpayer the war on drugs is on. The only problem is they forgot to tell the rest of the justice system.
You are not enlightening me to anything I dont know already.

Systems can't establish justice. Especially systems based on usury. I must have misunderstood your other post. Sorry for wasting bandwidth.

Goodnight all.

RJ:

So now you "called the OTHER fellow a fraud before Christmas?" Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but I don't recall you ever addressing him directly on the substance of his remarks. In fact, I remember your reply to me that you were too caught up in the "here and now of trading in the trenches" to even think out that far in advance. Fine, I was willing to respect that point of view and understood that you had no interest in that type of THOUGHT.

But now, waiting until he is out of earshot and then calling names is cheap and cowardly in my book, no matter what you said before Christmas.

New York-May 18-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 38,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 20,000



New York-May 18-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
-------------------------------------------------
Delivery
point previous received withdrawn net chg total
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total 96,164 0 929 -929 95,235




FWN: 152034 GMT


COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 2



-- SILVER
-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today
TOTAL REGISTERED
0 0 37,423,627
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
598,763 0 53,521,860
COMBINED TOTAL
598,763 0 90,945,487

End

FWN: 152054 GMT


COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks



New York-May 18-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
636,926 0 0 0 0 636,926
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
246,261 0 0 0 0 246,261
COMBINED TOTAL
883,187 0 0 0 0 883,187

I'm the idiot who thinks China has no intention of devaluing!
China--to my mind--is more interested in political currency than
fiat currency; much of what she has put out in recent months spotlights
the fact that China Keeps Her Word...when you're nation building, that can be a Biggie! China doesn't have an enormous worry about
capital in-flows: everyone WANTS to be there. So, in my read of
it, China has more action-options available than any other player
on the board. IMO {:- ) )

Now--really goodnight!

Off to munch on some potato chips. Thanks for putting things in simple terms for the simple and not simple minded.

I didnt mean to confuse. I find your legal tours most interesting. My whole day is a constant set of legal gymnastics. John Q Public is truly a poster child for the "ignorance is bliss campaign". I find the more I learn the farther away from the U.S. I will retire. Sad. I wonder if Bart is aware of the mental health benefits this site provides.
What is your take on the Dinar as a gold backed currency? Money overcomes a lot of hate.
And last but least, WJC. Has he been served up as the fall guy?

That was suppose to be the simple and not "so" simple minded. Guess you can tell which one I am.

There is no way people will sit still for a rational, lengthy, technical explanation when they realize the world as they know it will soon end. What better way to prepare the masses for catastrophy than through a series of TV and theater releases of asteroid or coment impact and other similar scenarios.
That thought struck me to the bone and shivered me liver tonight as I watched Deep Impact. They already know! They are softening us up!
I'm ordering lots of 1/10oz GOLD Maple Leafs and 1oz SILVER Maple Leafs as soon as fast as I can afford it. I still hold that junk silver will be confused by the average person. When they can't tell an SB Anthony from a quarter, how can they tell a silver dime for a cupronickel one.
And I am not letting up in my purchases of vitamins, medicines, ammo, whiskey, toilet paper, condoms, and cases of beans.

It seems the leaders of government, industry and finance are either--1.Clueless about Y2K, or 2.They know the truth, and are trying to buy time so they can prepare their exit.

Third possibility--They know, but are so freaked they are acting like deer caught in the headlights.

( airrel=Squirrel in last post )

Hmmmm

Gold and the US$ will rise together.

But the movement is invisible in US$.

Is this not a corollary of decline of other currencies vis a vis the US$?

I am too lazy to post my NZ$POG data, it's in a word file and incomplete. As the NZ$ has plunged to a new low against the US, NZ$ 1= US$0.52, the POG, while static/declining in US$ is actually doing rather well in NZ$, better than JTF's 10% over past 4 months.

CJS/Any other Euros
How fairs my precious in your currency?


Beautiful Jewel has shown her appreciation of aurator's investment nouse and agreed to increase gold:cash and survival food:cash ratios.



auracious@electric_paradise, You just turn the switch and the light comes on! Amaaaaazing

http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html

away...to buy more plat.....if I'm goin down............I'm goin down hard......... ( klunk! )



Got some Platinun from Bart last week. Feels heavier now.

it is cheap right now.......give it more time and the patience will prevail.................. ( ohmy ) .

...to the charts that dance in my sleep...... ( up, up, and..... )

away! ( $ )

uying more and more..........and more and more........and more and more............. ( indeedy ) .

Soothsayer son says he is short on XAU. He has taken
profits on Newcrest May puts and will roll into June
this week. Copper to 65 Nickel to who knows
PM's down 15% CRB probably bottoms around 210.
Then watch for signs of reversal.

Received this saturday morning. Copper yesterday fell
to 73 cents. CRB fell to 219. Nickle is vanishing.
Silver took it in the chops. Gold and PMG still OK ..
How long ??? do you feel lucky ??

A day or so ago, I said that if silver broke 5.40,
we'd see 5.1 - 5.25. It did and we did.
In short, Im not bullish.... To add insult .. the
rand fell to 5.10 to $ .. Soothsayer says 5.30 is
coming.
Im ticked off with Rangold myself. If it makes you
feel better ( or worse ) the close in joberg was equivalent
to $1.10. So the ADR price is maybe 10 % higher than the
local price. I wonder if local price will rise or ADR
price will fall .. Hmmmmm .I dont think rangy does
much until good news comes from syama .. to ME that
means end of July.

http://www.goldline.co.uk/
Gold in Pounds Sterling ( and US$ ) , with graph.

Durban Roodepoort Deep together with two other South African gold mining groups will start a reseach project on ultra deep mining methods. Details are available at http://www.drd.co.za/ - see press reports.

Soharto has offered to stand down as president.
He will bow down at the next elections.
But he will go out the door his way.

The demonstration on Wednesday is still planned
And the army is building up forces to repel the peoples.

CJS
Thanks for the URL

WHo's the power supply in Auckland?

Is it fixed yet?

Cheers mate

The posts on Kitco were few and long between. The comments uninspired tired, lamenting days long ago. Not much to say it seemed. The prices on the board seemed foreign - on closer evaluation they were as a throw back to the early seventies, low volitility, little changed. A scan of other sites found the dollar monstrously strong against all other currencies. The Dow was where it had been, interest rates were lower; the long bond was at 4%. War and chaos seemed to abound, economies were falling silent, everywhere.

And there was no power in Auckland.

All in a dream

sharefin

we got the paua!

you got the 'balone

Guernsey's got the ormer

auriel de mere

Ear of the sea

same fing

learn wierd stuff at kitco tho over the heads of our friends N & S of the Mason-Dixon methinks.

Talk about an oxymoron!!

Huh?

G'day mate.

Nick@C...off in search of ?. Where are you,oh ebacious one?? I need some new bifocals to better see gold 400 ahead!!

China has ways to devalue without actually making an announcement to that effect. Just as the U.S. has ways to raise interest rates without an announcement. The Chinese currency has been devalued on the black market as per recent posts. Interest rates are being raised by the Fed action of removing reserves from the system starting May 1st. It is not what they say that counts but rather what they do.

Heavy weather bangin@ersel.coward ..bbl

Eddie
Hi
I'm talking sea food,

Paua,
pron Power ( like the 'lectricity we often have ) is an edible molusc ( ? ) , the size of a big fist, black flesh and a rainbow shell ohh boy is it tasty, paua fritters, whitebait and oysters on the menu would make any kiwi homesick.

abalone
is the Paua's 'Stralian cousin, blond, small and a little insipid ( like the strines )

Ormer
is the Paua's Old world cousin, found in the Channel Islands, teensy weensy and dull, in such short supply, fishing is legal only on certain days of the year ( determined by full moon )

they all are sp Haliotis.

and my breath is sweet!

Nicko@Chimera
you extracting the michael bro?

I gently wept dry tears as I read your posts. Take heart, mateys. Perversity strengthens character!! To all you gold perverts out there, your golden keyhole lies just ahead!!

Or was that perspicacity?? Whatever...not long now!! Nick's 'see-through-plastic-ruler' says that this is a fakeout!! There are good things ahead and I will prove it to you just as soon as I finish installing my new 500 litre water tank.

Asked my bank about Y2K today!! Y2what???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/moody_s_ma_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/russia_nor_1.html

Now that you live in the 'big sans electricity smoke', you are not allowed to mistreat those oxen!! I also am accelerating my collection of 'provisions'. It is all stuff I will use, come what may. Feels good to know we could stay in the house for many months and still survive. Believe it or not, I am an optimist. None of this will be necessary!! We shall consume all--in time. Are learning self-sufficiency in the process. In the worst case scenario--we are doing the community a favour by not joining the soup-lines. On that bright note, sir, I wish you a good Aotearoan evening. N.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/japan_bank_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/china_inve_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/korea_econ_1.html

the early August 1997 all time high in the 1900 area.

Nicko
I too, am an optimist.
I believe that the golden heart of humanity will never be quashed
I believe that the people know things that the individual don't
I believe that right will always vanquish wrong
I believe that gold is true to her lovers
I believe I'll have ANOTHER drink

Now that I left my almost 5,000 gallons of water at the farm, I am very conscious of needing a good water reservoir. My next taskette, get me a water supply in the city. Possible to survive 18 days ( sans other limiting factors ) without food, but only 5 ( sans other limiting factors ) without water. Add humidity, exposure or injury and the limiting factors come knockin at the door.

wondering if i should develop a taste for gruel?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/bad_bankin_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/brazil_fut_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/fed_refrai_1.html

The trouble with listening to these big time consultants is they are always careful not to allienate prospective big time clients. Asia should have been listening to Kitco last year.

Donald
G'nite. I'll read the news after a snooze.

What Bunk indeed! If you want to see "predictions" of the Asian Crisis, verse and chapter, starting in early 1996, go to the Privateer website.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980518/dollar_sch_2.html

Hi Aurator
Hope you enjoyed your Wellington, and as there is nothing better to do than waiting for So-hard-to resign ( Sorry for the lousy joke ) maybe take a look at what austria has to offer to the man of taste ( and others ) at http://www.austrian-mint.com.

The AU/DM chart is at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dmgold.html. Though the boring blond lady looks expensive, she is in fact still a bargain.

BTW - they offer onions from NZ in the local supermarket!

Auracious your info on yummies most enlightening ( ' enlighting all gone ,by the way ) someday I'll learn yous guys' language. Desert emergency plastic umbrella upsidedown trick will supply almost 1/2 litre of water per day. Also all kinds of neat stuff in the ole "Boy Scouts Handbook" if you want some lite ,informative reading. It made me a better person...On my honor..............eddie

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/russia_1st_1.html

The US dollar, the German mark or the Chinese renmimbi? Pair of chop sticks to the winner.

Tuesday May 19, 12:11 am Eastern Time

HOT STOCKS-Japan: Sumitomo Metal Mining

TOKYO, May 19 ( Reuters ) - The following stocks are on the move:

0406 GMT - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ( 5713.T ) up 24 at 595 in heavy trade. Traders say the major mining firm attracted investors on expectations that gold is likely to gain in popularity amid social unrest in Indonesia and tension between India and Pakistan.

This forecasting service is long only 3 Fidelity funds now ( but 2 of them are precious metals funds ) and short everything else:

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/fu1htm.html

W A L K E R M A R K E T L E T T E R

5 / 18 / 98

FLASH UPDATE

http://www.lowrisk.com

...............................................

As of the market close on 5/18/98 the Signal Strength for the

Lowrisk Market Allocation Model dropped from 10 to 8. This means

that our Graduated Strategy will move from its position of 50% in

the stock market and 50% in cash to a position of 25% in the stock

market and 75% in cash ( or money markets ) . This switch will be

effective as of the market close tomorrow ( 5/19/98 ) . Our Graduated

Strategy moves assets into and out of the stock market in 25%

increments. Our other strategies remain unchanged. The current

status of our four strategies is detailed at the bottom of this

update.

This is now our fifth FLASH UPDATE since 4/24. In that time the

signal strength for our asset allocation model has dropped from

18 to 8. Today was the sixth consecutive day that declining issues

outnumbered advancing issues. The market is now oversold in the

short term, and we expect the market to rally soon, possibly as

soon as tomorrow. However, we expect this to be a counter trend

rally. In other words, we consider the current trend to be down.

Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% in stocks since 4/21/94

---

Graduated Strategy - 25% in stocks, 75% in money markets as of 5/18/98

---

Timing Strategy - 100% in cash or money markets since 5/11/98

---

SuperBear Strategy - 100% in money markets since 4/24/98

For more information on the Lowrisk Market Allocation Model and

our four strategies stop by:

http://www.lowrisk.com/mtm.htm

Good luck,

Jeff

fought with sticks and stones. Oh gold will be valuable. Take no offence . I find myself thinking the same way. It's just ironic. Go Gold. Lets rumble!

I have been reading the Walker news alert for several weeks now. What is interesting to me is that I am a co-trustee of our firm's profit-sharing plan. In response to the recent Walker trend I suggested to my fellow co-trustees that we ought to be pulling out of the growth stocks and riding along in money markets for a time. My co-trustee wouldn't agree to it because he thought we should not be trying to guess changes in the market. He is of the opinion that the mutual fund managers will of themselves convert a large portion of a growth portfolio to cash anticipating a precipitous drop in the market. I snorted in disbelief and walked away. I think we are very shortly going to see either a huge correction or barring that a bear market that is going to growl for several years. I'm staying with my gold mutual funds through this. Gold may well be the honey that the assuages the appetite of the bear.

http://www.moneyblows.com/mutual.html#top of review

??

Perhaps you should show your co-trustee Jeil's market models - that might help make a believer of him.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/spda.jpg

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/spwk.jpg

So far, I'm very impressed with the results these models show, but I wish I understood more about how they have been crafted.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst and take some time off. : )

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

( page down to get other chart cycles links )

TUESDAY MAY 19 1998
Commodities 
Palladium hits record high
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
The price of palladium, a metal vital in making mobile phones, laptop computers and anti-pollution vehicle catalysts, jumped to record levels yesterday, overtaking the price of platinum for the first time.

Short-term worries about supplies from Russia, the biggest producer, pushed palladium up to $417 a troy ounce at its London afternoon "fixing", up nearly 7 per cent from Friday's $392. Platinum was "fixed" at $405 an ounce, up $2.

At the beginning of 1997 palladium was $120.

Palladium is used in capacitors which control power supply in many electronic products and is also used as a catalyst to help reduce pollutant emissions in cars. It is closely related to platinum, but palladium has applications in electronics which platinum cannot fulfill.

Fast-growing demand for products which rely heavily on palladium will leave the world severely short of the metal early next century, Johnson Matthey, the world's biggest platinum and palladium marketing organisation, warned yesterday.

The supply "crisis" could arrive in relatively few years, said Graham Titcombe, managing director of JM's precious metals division.

The current price surge has been triggered by the failure of Russia, which accounted for two-thirds of global palladium supply in 1997, to export any of the metal this year because of bureaucratic delays in the issue of export licences. Analysts expect a re-run of last year when Russia did not export any palladium or platinum in the first six months.

However, Mr Titcombe was warning about medium-term difficulties which "will make the events of the last 18 months look relatively serene". He referred to a big gap between palladium supply and demand that has built up in the past five years and been filled only because Russia was able to sell from its stocks.

JM, in its latest market survey yesterday, said demand for palladium soared by 21 per cent last year to an unprecedented 7.46m ounces. Supply was only 7.25m ounces.

Russia contributed 4.5m ounces to palladium supplies in 1997 compared with its estimated production of 2m ounces. Since 1994, Russia has taken about 10m ounces from its palladium stocks, according to JM's estimates. These stocks are likely to run out by 2002 while Russia is unable to increase output.

Jeremy Coombes, JM's general manager, marketing, said: "Russia should tell the world what stocks it has, so consumers know how much time they have left."

The automotive industry could substitute platinum for palladium in some catalysts, while the electronics industry could use nickel as an alternative, he said.

Mr Titcombe implored vehicle makers to increase efforts to switch to platinum.

South Africa has vast reserves which could be brought into production.

$$$$US

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Donald
There seems to be a lot of consternation regarding currency's, economies and debt, at the moment.

Has someone noticed something?

Or did you specially pick these ones out?

PH -

What is the point of this ANOTHER debate? I made no secret that I thought he was a fake. If you were sucked into it, don't yell at me. Did you buy a book, also? This too is not personal, but trying to justify trading the cow for a bag of magic beans is to not recognize the folly. It may be embarrassing to be found to be a disciple of thin air, but it is vastly better to recognize this than to go on defending this prankster.

To all here. You may have your ANOTHER! You truly deserve it.

These will be the last words I will write on the subject.

We will have some fun today, aye?

Aye, aye

TUESDAY MAY 19 1998
Commodities 
PLATINUM: China's youth taking a shine
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
China's "spoilt brat" generation, products of the government's insistence that each family has only one child, is proving a boon to platinum producers.

Sales of platinum jewellery in China nearly doubled last year, according to Johnson Matthey, the world's biggest platinum marketing group, as the metal became fashionable among young, wealthy, urban Chinese.

"These single children are doted on by their parents and grandparents. They are the first Chinese to enjoy prosperity and have plenty of spending power," said Alison Cowley, author of JM's annual market survey.

"These young consumers regard platinum jewellery as elegant and sophisticated in comparison with the simple, heavy gold items bought by their parents' generation."

Manufacturers have encouraged the trend because, unlike gold, platinum supply is not controlled by the central bank, and can be imported freely. This has enabled jewellers to expand quickly into platinum jewellery production.

Production of platinum jewellery also jumped by 75 per cent last year in the US. "The recent introduction of platinum jewellery by large retail chains and television shopping networks indicates it is now regarded as a mainstream jewellery metal in America," said Ms Cowley.

These trends helped global sales of platinum jewellery advance 9 per cent last year to 2.16m troy ounces, in spite of a fall in Japan coupled with the Asian crisis.

Total platinum demand was up 4.8 per cent to 5.2m ounces, while supply was stable at 4.97m, leaving a shortfall of 230,000 ounces.

JM forecasts that platinum demand will grow by 2-3 per cent this year and that prices will be volatile and range between US$370 and $450 an ounce for the rest of this year. In London yesterday the price was "fixed" at $405.

"Platinum 1998," free from Johnson Matthey, 40 Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8EE, UK.
Email: platinum@matthey.com

The XAU/Spot Ratio fell below its 200 day moving average on October 16, 1987, and a 500 point Dow drop followed. The XAU/Spot Ratio fell below its 200 day moving average on October 24, 1997, and a 500 point Dow drop followed. The XAU/Spot Ratio fell below its 200 day moving average yesterday.

Fake or not, you can be sure of the following:

( 1 ) If gold takes off to the moon, he will be back to say I-told-you-so.
( 2 ) If gold goes in the tank, we will have seen the last of him.

Nah. Just a coincidence.

8.30 pm: Indonesia to have new president
by year-end

Indonesian President Suharto has drawn up a plan to hold
parliamentary elections within three to six months and will step down
by the end of the year, said Environment Minister Juwono Sudarsono
in an interview with Reuters.

He said the president decided on the plan after meeting with nine
influential Moslem leaders this morning.

New legislation will be prepared within the next two months and will
likely do away with restrictions on the number of political parties and
contestants, said Juwono.

I'll be the first here to tell you that I eagerly look forward to reading
all of your posts. They are witty, informative and demonstrate that you
know your stuff. I think you have courage and you add balance to this forum by expressing your investment opinions in the face of open opposition. I equally enjoy the posts of ANOTHER, John Disney, Oris, Preacher, F*, StudioR, Sharefin, et al. What diversity, what wealth of knowledge!

We sorely need that sort of thing here. It makes Kitco, Kitco.

What we don't need, RJ, is personal attacks that only serve to incite
hostility, intimidate the sensible and deprive this forum of substance. It's one thing to attack an opinion; it's another altogether different thing to attack an individual. The former expresses your convictions, the latter, your faults.

In my post of last night I was not defending ANOTHER. I was simply
expressing my displeasure with the presumption that only the like minded
can play here. Just imagine, RJ, if everybody here agreed with you on
everything, 100% of the time.

Boring, yes?

Indeed ( to coin a phrase ) .

Thx for the note. Sounds like Nation's Bank are either doing a good job fixing Y2K problems or doing a good job talking about it. I'd expect a large bank to be on top of it, although they may still not make it in spite of best efforts. I wonder how much your Sandra Copney is willing to say in writing?

Thanks again for the follow-up.
-EJ

Here's the latest mutual fund cash position data I could find ( the trend isn't in the direction your co-trustee wishes )

Table 4. Liquid assets of stock mutual funds, percent of total net assets

Mar 1998 Feb 1998 Mar 1997

4.7 % 5.0% 6.0%

This is from

http://www.ici.org/facts_figures/trends_0398.html

SA gold stocks holding up extremely well considering bullion's slide.

RJ: You say you will cover your gold shorts at $295. Does this mean you no longer expect to see $280?

Sorry about the type on your handle.

The news I heard is that yes, Suharto is to resign after elections, but the demonstraters want him to resign now. Hope all is well from ground zero. Did you notice the fires in Mexico? El Nino may be starting to do its dirty work in our hemisphere too. The weather clearly contributed to SEAsian problems.

Please take care.

about American buying of distressed real estate.

This is the response I received from the local power board 'FNQEB'.
I also spoke to the 'FNQEB Y2K Project Manager'
Who was giving a Y2K lecture at the local University.
His answer to my questions regarding Y2K and power supply
Representing FNQEB, was "No Comment".

Result 'pass the buck' and no reply from Ergon Energy.

Our local company which was privatised recently, has a great web site.
But not one mention of Y2K.
http://www.fnqeb.com.au/index.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1/18/5/11/11B1 ( 9804399 ) BMCS:ng
14 May 1998
Mr Nick Laird
sharefin@cairns.net.au

Dear Sir

POWER SUPPLY AND YEAR 2000 COMPLIANCE

We have received your enquiry requesting information on our approach to the Year 2000 problem or "Millennium Bug" in the context of electricity supply.

FNQEB does have a Year 2000 Project underway to address this problem, however, under the new electricity industry structure in Queensland, FNQEB's responsibility is now restricted to electricity distribution for Far North Queensland. The Year 2000 problem and considerations of continuity of supply go beyond FNQEB's accountabilities.

The Central Electricity Retail Corporation Pty Ltd, trading as Ergon Electricity, is your electricity retailer and it is appropriate that your enquiry be handled by them.

Consequently, I have forwarded your enquiry to:
Murray Freeman
Manager Information Technology
Central Electricity Retail Corporation Pty Ltd
P O Box 107 Albert Street
BRISBANE QLD 4002

Yours faithfully
D MOODY
BUSINESS MANAGER CORPORATE SERVICES

Moderation in all things, including moderation in moderation. Wasn't that a line from the first remake of 'Lost Horizon'? To be frank, I have varied my investment technique depending on the market but am a gradualist at heart. If I weren't I would have gone 100% into gold stocks during the market glitch during the summer of 96, losing too much to even think about. As it is metals stocks and funds are now about 5/8 of the 40% I have left in stocks. IMHO

Concerning market timing, whenever I feel like timing the market I take two aspirins and go to bed. I have an uncanny knack for choosing wrong in such circumstances. Whenever I go to the grocery store my line is always the longest. So I accept promise of less gain and have less risk by looking to long term trends. But again here too I practice moderation in moderation. I moved some money around last winter and made a quick 25% on my biggest income stock fund holding then reduced its amount in steps over the last 6 weeks, listening to the Kitcoites prophecies of doom. IMHO

Now, metals themselves are different. I buy only with disposable income and not investment income. I use the portion of income other people use for entertainment, vacations, hobbies and new cars. Somewhere I read that the average American spends 10% to 15% of his paycheck on toys, so I make it a point to choose among the PMs when possible. Which figures out to dollar cost averaging weighted to increase over time. I never sell, but in considering PMs luxuries I do give them as presents to various females and family children, figuring they are less harmful than other alternatives. IMHO

Basically, now that you think about it I have no rhyme or reason and just do things for the fun of it. After all Social Security will take care of me when I'm old. ( $-^] ) IMHO

Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Anyone who wishes to quibble over this may line up with their lawyer to kiss my behind.

of WSJ about risks to worldwide shipping in Indonesian sealanes. About 80% of Japan's oil passes through the Malacca Straits. Area is already vulnerable to pirates.

Old Gold -

Yes. I gave up on $280 awhile back. I would be very happy at 290 - 295.

The time may not be far off before I turn gold bull

Perhaps

All- Maria [CNBC] is almost havin a CLIMAX by talkin about how much
CASH has been comin into the market and fund managers jest
let it stay in CASH, lookin for a HUGE STOCK RALLY after fed decision.
I thought these reporters were not supposed to show any EMOTION?

PS- think I will BUY some more Microsoft, HA HA HA HA HA HA

Tally Ho

PS- you BOYS want to get RICH you will be buyin gold and the share
with BOTH HANDS. Mario real BULLISH on the EURO. ME too, screw
J. Rogers!

Bill Buckler: SEAsian crisis bunk? What are you referring to? Please let us know your opinions. Also, I would be interested in your comments- re: gold. It is not acting very lively, to say the least. Technically we are still in a rally, IMHO. But -- a nice big deflationary move somewhere ( with a gold fire sale ) might finish off our rally. I doubt anything below $280/oz US.

he told me that there is a very good chance that he may do absolutely nothing at today's meeting. Then again, he may do something !

hijacked in the area already this year.

http://www.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/1998/dom/980525/asias_crisis.the_banks_n8.html

Shaky economies in Asia aren't good places for delicate financial instruments like DERIVATIVES. The fires engulfing Indonesia could scorch American banks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Great article from the Fiend

talks about the IMF handling of Indonesia. Quote; "It ( IMF ) has not been fighting financial fires. It has been dousing them with gasoline."

I'm certain that the Internet has helped create the equity bubble but has also offered the contrarian a unique opportunity to see the world clearly through the fog of mass media hype.

The Internet is a new mass media for the communication of information without the previous requirements for mass communication, massive capitalization for content creation ( editorial staff ) , media infrustructure ( broadcast networks ) , distribution media manufacturing ( printing ) , media broadcast and distribution. Anyone can publish on the Internet cheaply. However, just as in the old world, your market and brand as an Internet mass market publisher is defined by your unique point of view and your place among competitors is still determined by your relative ability to create scarcity, quality, and relevance of information, all of which are still expensive to produce. Thus the Internet mass media is just another highly-capitalized corporate communications medium that needs to serve the interests of the corporate community. The NY Times is traded on the the NYSE. How can it be in their interest to editorialize on the irresponsibility of the Fed to collude with industry and allow the stock market to grow to such outrages proportions?

This aspect of mass media managed by corporations traded on the stock exchanges produces homogenous content. Thus in the financial world the bulk of the mass media say, "Asia is going to get better sson" and "the stock market is high but that's because the US economy is doing so well" etc. This tendency to amplify the current dogma that supports the interests of large mass media corporations has caused masses of investors to feel it's safe to continue to put money in the stock market. They will experience mass confusion when the market crashes. The corporate mass media of course will go into fast reverse and act like they'd been saying this all along. They may even engage in self flagellation and paint Greenspan aas the villian. Remember what I've always said about the media: they are historians. They tell you the news AFTER it's happened. They are not in the negative prediction business. The negative prediction business is bad for business.

On the other hand, the Internet also gives citizens like those of us here a unique ability to publish relevant and scarce information. Quality is a matter of personal choice here. No editor is determining the quality of content at Kitco. This is both a strength and a weakness. A strength because a large amount of rare and valuable information shows up here that does not show up anywhere else. Weak because the lower quality information published here does not support this site's reputation as a publication of record. You cannot visit Kico and know what you're going to get is necesarily well researched with due dilegence. However, to a careful reader, you do get a view that balances the prevailing view in the mass media.

To answer my own question, if the Internet had been around in 1929, then Kitco would be here, or something like it, and it's careful readers and participants would be in the best position to see the then current economy for what it was, a peaked-out bubble waiting for a pin. The past does not repeat itself exactly. But what looks to the consumer of mass media today as an unstoppable machine of economic growth appears to the Kitco reader as an engine off its mounts, revving past the red-line, throwing off bits of piston ring and globs of burnt oil.
-EJ

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/smith/980519.comcs.html

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/0518/fcw-frontnsa-5-18-1998.html


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-05/19/064r-051998-idx.html

I look forward to hearing what Murray Freeman has to say.

Passing the buck is the main cause of an upcoming disaster I just learned about first hand from a contact at Blue Cross Bluw Shield in the US. These guys are way behind with, IMHO, little chance of making the Y2K deadline. It's my understanding they've been passing the Y2K ball around the place for years. Recently their lawyers told them they were liable for problems. Now they're on it. Too late?
-EJ

It is a little late for people to be coming to their senses. Camdesuss and his ilk are a threat to every decent man, woman and child on the planet.

In addition, he refuses to pay the vet. bills for the rash he gave my dog. That dog defiler, smeller of dogs bottoms the world over, he is not only a financial menace, but a health hazard to all clean dogs.

GET CAMDESUSS!!!

It's like aids, its catching;
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980518/inform/inform1.html


Tolerant
DOD is a Y2k nightmare.
Too many ostriches parading as chiefs.

in their TV and direct mail advertising. ( WSJ Page C1 ) . Now, if I were
suspicious like some other Kitcoites, I would wonder why they are really doing that ? "We need to personalize our message" says Stephen Cone, President

Here's some interesting info on the major shareholders in Durban Roodeport Deep as of their current ( 28 April 1998 ) report:

Standard Bank Nominees ( Tvl ) ( Pty ) Limited 51.02%

Indo-China Nominees ( Pty ) Limited 16.91%

First National Nominees ( Pty ) Limited 6.98%

London Control Account 4.13%

Randgold & Exploration Company Limited 3.49%

Looks like the banks own it, eh?

Donald, were those the only times that the XAU/DOW dropped below its 200 day MA? How many times has it dropped below the 200DMA since 1987? Hope it is not much bother, I do not have charts of XAU/DOW ratio.

Maria is a fox, isn't she? Someone should explain to her that, other than new issues, money cannot flow into the market. If someone buys a share of stock for $100, someone else sold it for that $100. As much flows OUT of the market as flows IN. In fact, according to the FED, US investors have been net SELLERS for years now to the tune of several hundred billion as a result of mergers, buybacks, etc.

Y2k Weatherman Report #30
http://y2kwatch.com/y2kman.htm>http://y2kwatch.com/y2kman.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Is the grim nature of Y2k getting to you? Are you struggling to avoid
falling into a Y2k depressive funk? If so, I've been there. There is
scant good news coming out on Y2k, and unfortunately I really can't
cheer you up with the facts.

Y2k is legitimate bad news no matter how you slice it.

This is why a sense of humor is a critical Y2k survival tool. ( I
don't know Gary North personally, but some of his "one-liner" replies
to my email are tear-jerking funny! )

I'm not saying we need to laugh in the face of danger, but I do know
that humor is a very useful coping mechanism. If you lose your sense
of humor, you're in trouble. Four things saved me from my Y2k
depression:

( 1 ) Recognizing the Sovereignty of God and knowing that faith in
Jesus Christ is my ultimate hope. ( Romans 8:28 )

( 2 ) Trying to live each day as it comes without hand-wringing worry.
( Matthew 6:34 ) Note: This doesn't mean be unprepared.

( 3 ) The power of prayer. ( John 16:22-24 )

( 4 ) Regaining a sense of humor about how crazy this whole thing is!

You're going to need some serious coping skills to get through these
next few months, and especially post 2000. I don't forsee the
negative nature of Y2k disclosure changing much. If anything, it will
only get worse from here on in.

In fact, last week I learned that the company I'm a consultant for is
no longer letting their employees assure customers that they will be
in business post 2000! They are doing serious back-peddling from
their prior position of giving assurances that they would have all
internal systems fixed and would be monitoring vendors and suppliers
with close scrutiny.

The lawyers are making us back off the double-speak assurance and warm fuzzy Y2k "promises" previously made. Since the IRS and FED have come out saying telecommunications are a core problem with their computer systems, the telecom companies are circling the wagons even tighter to deflect law suits and litigation attacks. Telcos are getting hammered with requests from major corporate customers to establish their
position for Y2k compliance. The great legal battles have begun.

I sincerely hope *all* our worst nightmares aren't realized. However,
I'm still waiting for a credible announcement from a major corporation
that assures stock holders they have nothing to worry about backed up
with evidence rather than "trust me" platitudes. I don't think we'll
ever get to that point. If anything we're moving the other way. The
liability issues are too high with Y2k.

When you read the next Y2k Weatherman Report ( #31 ) on supply chain
issues, you'll see why no large corporation will ever be able to claim
they are 100% Y2k ready. It is an practical impossibility to manage
the complexity and the suppliers at the corporate level for large
companies. Many problems won't be found until they become problems.
It may be too late then.

If all this depresses you, You may need come comedy relief, read this post:
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1512

If that doesn't cheer you up. Here is a cartoon for you:
http://www.foxnews.com/views/hiers/041798.sml

I've seen quite a few Y2k jokes, poetry, and songs written to popular
tunes ( like the theme to Gilligan's Island ) , etc. I've posted some of
this jocularity to the Y2kWatch.com web site so we can all go there
and decompress when the tension gets too overwhelming.

Y2k Humor can be found at:
http://y2kwatch.com/y2kman.htm ( scroll down a bit )

Before you send me another copy of the Y2k Gilligan's Island song
please review the material I've already collected. ( I think I've
received the Gilligan's Island Y2k song about 10 times now. )

And if you get too giddy, read this article on embedded systems to
bring yourself back to reality.

Y2K and Embedded Controls in the Electric Industry
By Rick Cowles
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/rc9819.htm

John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso

Bulletin!!!

We received two reports late last week that there has been
selling of gold by one or more European central banks. One
report indicated that we are in a late stage of a presumed long
term selling program.
We understand that several dealers who are often involved
in official sector sales and who were very bearish in 1996-1997
have turned bullish on the gold market. At the same time we
hear more comments on producer buybacks. All the above reports
hang together. There has been sustained undisclosed European
official selling for some time. This is coming to an end and
the dealers know this. As a consequence, the dealers are
advising their largest producer clients to reduce their hedges.
As we have stated repeatedly in recent reports, if this
picture is correct, it is decidedly bullish. At some point
such undisclosed sales will end and will be announced.
Official selling pressures which have led to the current low
gold price will abate and the price will rise. Market
participants will notice that the gold market has been able to
absorb more metal than they thought. It will become clear that
global gold demand exceeds consensus estimates. This will imply
a higher price needed to clear the market once official
supplies abate.
In our opinion, the gold market cleared at $385-$388 in
the period 1994-1996 with total flows of official sales and
mobilizations of 1000 tonnes per annum. If the unusually
heavy official supplies of 1997 recede to 1994-1996 levels and
there is a recovery in emerging Asia-both of which we expect-
the gold market should clear once again in the $375-$400 range.
Because of short run sticker shock abatements in physical demand
on price rallies, bouts of scale up producer hedging, and
perhaps 4 quarters to restore end use Asian demand, this price
recovery may take a year, transversing in both price and time
the Nov96-Nov97 price decline.

Just in case anyone missed it, everyone should have read yesterdays post by Lock&Lode post at 13:18. Its very well written, and it is an excellent summary of where the economy stands today.

Two forecasts that will increase the price of PMs in the next year or two.

1. Were going to have severe INFLATION in the next few years, not deflation. Thats why PMs are such a bargain now!! When banks and credit unions begin to fail soon ( Y2K, bad investments ) , the US government ( FDIC ) will print more money and bail them out.
. When the economy stumbles, the amount of US taxes paid will drop. Do you really think that the government will cut expenditures and lay-off contractors in a sour economy? Washington would rather crank-up the printing presses and live with a high inflation rate rather than a high unemployment rate.
. Inflation isnt always a bad thing. No one complains when the price of their home goes up 10% in a year. No one complains when they get a large salary increase, or when their company makes more money. Indonesia is experiencing extreme inflation rates, but luxury cars have been selling as quickly as they can be imported. People are expecting high inflation rates, so why not buy a $50,000 car if you can sell it for $500,000 next year? Its better than earning 5% in a savings account or money market.

2. Europe is getting set for another replay of the late 1920s, especially Germany.
. All Germany needs right now is another evil leader with someone to blame. If the worldwide economy does stumble, think of the impact to Germany. Unemployment is now at 11%. If it rises to 20%, do you think that the hard-working, well-educated German people will just sit back and watch while the big German companies continue to build huge factories in other countries to manufacture their products? I dont.

Yesterday someone noted that about 90% of historical gold production was in this century. That may be true, but about 90% of the people that ever existed lived in the century, also. Supply and demand.

Personal Advice: If someone posts something here that you dont like, give them the ULTIMATE INSULT: Ignore them!

Greetings to all!

The Toronto Mining Summation Index is still in decline, but not collapsing. This is still a negative until it turns upward. Plain and simple.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have increased this week. They are hovering around 5 to 8 issues per day. This number should stay above 5 if further declines are coming, or dry up in anticipation of the next leg upward for gold issues. This is slightly negative.

The Tornto Gold Index weekly trend line that rises at 2% componded weekly, was penetrated again last week, but ended the week above the trend. When this occurs, I reset the trend based on last week's low ( 7060 ) . This week the trend line is at 7201 . A close decisively below that on Friday spells trouble. So far this trend line has held the corrections.

In summary, I have reduced my positions slightly, but have not yet bailed out.

Contrarians may wish to consider other non-precious metals stocks at this point. They are battered like golds were late last year. ( eg BHP,Inco,copper stocks etc )

RJ
of everything you said ..
Until you said that you gave
up on 280.

Derivatives...yes, when the markets turn we will have major bank failures in the span of a few hours. Gold and silver...safe havens from the massive loss of wealth to be bestowed on the people of this earth. Buy now pray now and later.

Tom

RJ- come on down, over, welcome aboard!!
Appreciate your prespectve.

I have made soo much filthy luker in this so called gold
bear ain't gona know how to act with a REAL BULL on my hands
and in my pocket! ie gold topped 1980, gold stocks topped '85-'87,
made a DAMN KILLIN '93-'94, doubled a nice chunk of change 1996!
Gona have to learnt to trade! DAMN!

Tally Ho

That is the XAU/AU ratio I posted about, not XAU/Dow. There was a drop below the 200 day M/A on 9/27/90 that was a non event and there may have been others. I am entering data by hand, a tedious process, and have my tables populated only around the major events so far.

If you had converted a $100 to renmimbi in Jan 1997 and converted it back to dollars today, You would have an extra 27 cents.

I see it hit about 80.6 and jumped up a couple of points this am. What do you think, Charlie

First of all thanks.
Thanks for the time consuming and philantropic task of keeping us aware of Y2K related developments.I started warning family and friends.I advised storing essential goods and withdrawing money etc..
Besides my in- laws I mostly get dismissive comments and my argument of last resort has to be: after all , what is it going to cost you if I am wrong? A few months of return on some or all your cash and some food you might still use afterward.
When they learn about the extent to which I take it seriously they are even less tempted to act.I am not surprised.It is a natural human reaction for most people to put off life disturbing thoughts.
Even my wife think I am overreacting.
Still, my bank ( in the world top 15 ) is quietly getting nervous.My head of IT plans to spend a vacation in a far remote place at the end of next year. We are auditing our clients ( If they sink they won't repay their loans! ) and we are trying to update softwares ( however the EURO is the priority . ( we are European ) .Even I can't tell exactly where we stand.
I still hope everything will be better than I think it will be.After all I still have some faith in the human ability to find solutions in critical situations ( I know the deadline is set and Empires fall )
But I got involved a little bit to much.If Y2K is a minor event fixed within a few days for essential services I will feel like an idiot.Imagine us talking here on JAN 1 2000 and everything is fine!
I know Iam just playing the odds and they are in my favor big time but sometimes it seems so unbelievable that MAN should misstep on such a ridiculous problem that I doubt.
THANKS AGAIN

DROOY in ultra deep gold mining research partnership: see detail in latest news item at http://www.drd.co.za/

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

http://www.newswire.ca//releases/May1998/19/c4158.html

Excellent points! Kudos to Lock and Lode's post and yours. You are so right. When the economy turns and the Government doesn't get all those lovely dollars from taxes, they'll just make some! That's the most convincing argument for inflation I've seen. I'm an investor, not a trader and after reading your post, I've never felt more confident about the intermediate term future of Gold. Thanks.

Which of your E.W. do you favor?
Tres bon site.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980519.btl.bribe.or.payoff.html

Looking at the weekly data, the XAU/AU ratio dropped below its 40 wk moving average on 10/23/87 for the first time since 1/9/97. It stayed there until 6/3/88.

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/cache/CNYUSD00-2450451-2450948.GIF
Could this be true?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sequin
Thanks, I sometimes wonder about posting so much Y2K info here, but I am a firm believer that it will have a profound effect on humanity and have a strong effect on gold and PM's.

There is such a diverse coverage on the subject now that one must adopt the position that it will effect ones life and survival.

Coupled with the coming financial collapse, this will be a double whammy.
All we can do is take note and prepare for the occasion.
Many here on Kitco are actively doing so.
Kudos to the informed.

Gold has never been cheaper, as paper reaches it's zenith.
But there is an immovable date just in front of us.
Y2K

If any of you are disturbed by the sale of national security technology to communist China by Loral Space and Communications, please write, or call and voice your displeasure.

Loral Space and Communications, Ltd.
600 Third Ave
New York, NY 10016
( 212 ) 697-1105 They don't seem to have an 800 number
Bernard Schwartz, Chairman and CEO

They have a PR type web site at www.loral.com, but do not seem to have an e-mail address.
The media seems to be trying to avoid the whole subject of the what one congressman on TV last night called thed "betrayal" of the U.S. by this company, and the leadership of the government. Perhaps it is time to have our voices heard.

Tuesday, May 19, 1998

Japanese banks deny credit to Bank of
India

BOMBAY, May 19 ( Reuters ) - Branches of the state-run Bank of India ( BOI ) operating in
Japan have been refused credit by Japanese banks, a BOI official said on Tuesday.
The move comes after Japan imposed economic sanctions on India for its nuclear tests last
week.
"Following the sanctions, they have decided not to extend lines of credit or other fund
facilities to us," a BOI official said on Tuesday.
Japan suspended new loans and grants to India and also withdrew its offer to host a June 30
World Bank meeting in which donors of aid to India were to discuss development assistance.
"The Japanese banks made their move last week immediately after their government imposed
sanctions," the BOI official said.
"Our officials started talks on Monday with senior Japanese bankers," he added.
Bank of India has two branches in Japan.
The official said that BOI held a comfortable liquidity position and is traditionally a lender in
the Japanese market.
"We put in the request for credit from the Japanese banks, as a measure of caution to hedge
against any untoward developments in future," he said.
"We also wanted to test the market, to find out who is willing to lend and keep ourselves liquid
as protection," he said.
A State Bank of India ( SBI ) official said his bank had received no reports that Japanese banks
had stopped credit to SBI's branches in Japan.
"We checked up with our Japanese offices," said a SBI official. "They say they have received
no communication about Japanese banks' refusal to extend credit facilities."
The Financial Express daily reported on Tuesday that Japanese banks refused requests for
fresh credit lines made by the State Bank of India ( SBI ) and Bank of India, the only Indian
banks with branches in Japan.
Clearing banks in the U.S. last week stopped intraday overdraft facilities to Indian banks.

Seems incredible doesn't it? After supposed inflation in China? Can they really keep this up?

and it was all about Microsoft; I did not hear one word about Chinese money.

Who needs to devalue?
Just live next to a neighbour
Like the US$

It's like it's omnipotent

Plain and simple. I constantly send information around the planet to family and friends. In addition I tell them that based on where they live it could very well be life threatening. This could be due to location in terms of high density population or weather.



I have been pounding people over the head with information on the most important items as I see them and providing links, print-outs, etc. Some listen, some do not. The way I see it, some will heed the warnings and other will not no matter what I do or provide them with.



I learned a long, long time ago that it is not worth making yourself sick over the in-action of others. Either they will be prepared or they will not. It is their life, and no one else can live it for them.



In a very stern manner I have told family and friends that I will not be around nor help...when the time comes if they have not made any preparations it will be their own fault and I do not intend on making those who put forth the effort and prepare, suffer due to the apathetic.



Since that comment more have awakened to the possibilities...I am a very giving individual and they, each and every one of them, know this, the last paragraph took all of them by surprise. My own form of shock therapy. But I mean it and they know it...

That's getting to the heart of it. Water rights out there are worth more than gold. I guess you remember about Noah Kellog and his donkey. Also the story of the trial put this full forward- water rights. The main witness said he didn't care who got the ore- he had the water rights. Clifton is lookig up, or should I say "forward". Thanx Charlie

I found them through the GOLDBUG...by far one of the most honest, straight forward and on the money newletter writers out there.

A Giant GULP to the GOLDBUG...

RJ: If you at least raise the possibility of turning bullish, joining long-time bear Selby -- ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. Despite the capitulation of Midas, perhaps there is hope for the long suffering yellow after all.

Figures showed overall investment in fixed assets picking up.

Rising investment in everything from infrastructure to machinery is in line with a government plan to keep economic growth on track by boosting spending.

Doesnt sound cataclysmic! {:- )

One feels that China has an intimate acquaintance with Dire Times and a 55-year time-line. See-through buildings, lower GDP and busted-banks are concerns to be sure, but not as high on the priority to-do list as they are for Western leaders. That Chinas currency will be revalued, one does not doubt; but a revaluation will be part of a regional adjustment...

Unless the Princes of Davos ( who ARE the ones being hurt by Chinas intransigence ) win-out. Makes one feel VERY nervous, disagreeing with either you or sharefin, however. May have to recheck my China folder! {:- )

There must be some SMALL reason why the US$ is kickin' such HUGE ass.........hmmmmmmmmm.........I thank the WHOLE world for propping up our economy......we couldn't do it w/o ya'!!

Do we have small memeories???.........just a few short years ago the US$ was very low against other major currencies. cycles....... ( duh ) ........fundamentals..... ( heaven forbid ) .........

Why is it strong right now?? Hmmmmmmmmmm......It gets so boring reading about how the US$ isn't worth Sh!t right now and how US sucks this and sucks that.........well gang.....GET OVER IT! We are big and bad..........and even Godzilla doesn't stand a chance ;- ) .

And give the world a reason to buy the other currencies.....ANY REASON.......ONE ( ! ) ....

away.......from this nonsense.........it's all Alan Greenspans fault...........ONLY................NOT ( ! )



go gold.......where????? who cares......

BB ( way ) L.....shakin my head..................... ( yawn ) ..........

OLD GOLD: I think the DOW 10 000 mark will be the next important point--and just because of the number. Will the "average" investor let it pass and then we head happily on to 11000 and then who knows where. Or will the investor say something like "Isn't 10 000 high? Maybe I should take some profits."

SEQUIN:
Embedded chips are often date/time sensitive in what they are meant to do. They are programmed in a low level code which cannot be changed in any easy way.
Now, how does such a date/time sensitive function work?
The format how date/time gets stored is: YYMMDDhhmmss
YY = year
MM = month
DD = day of month
hh = hour within day
mm = minute within hour
ss = second within minute

Let the requirement based on which the chip has been programmed be defined such, that a check has to happen every ten minutes, depending on certain dates.

That means the prior value of YYMMDDhhmmss ( when the last check was performed ) must always be less than the most current value. And when the most current value is 10 minutes greater than the previously stored value a process is being kicked off.

So waht happens as soon as the prior value stored will be
991231235833.
The above value was stored at the 33rd second of the 58th minute in the 23rd hour of the 31st of December 1999.
Now compare this one minute and 27 seconds later with any value which this data field will have from then on: the most current value will never be greater ever again than the previously stored value.
You always will have a lesser value for the most current date/time field:
like:
YYMMDDhhmmss
000101010233 be most current value; will always be less than
991231235833 = previously stored value.

So, if the chip has only two digits for the Year the program logic can never again detect a greater value for date/time. Actually, this is not completely true. In the above example, the most current value would be greater again than the previously stored value in one hundred years.
Then this program example would probably execute correctly one more time to go to sleep again for another one hundred years.

Remember the fairy tail of the Sleeping Beauty?

All of this wouldn't be a problem at all if the year would be stored in four digits.

Don't be afraid to look like an idiot. You'll be in good company. Most of the engineers with whom I talked feel the same way. Me too.

Alberich the Dwarf

For whatever it's worth, the Golden Mean XAU option trading system just bought June 85 calls for $3.12. They just came off a money losing put position, but have been pretty good otherwise.
http://members.tripod.com/~goldenmean/

Subject: The Islamic Dinar Success in Malaysia
Date: Tue, 19 May 98 15:20:16 +0100
From: Umar Vadillo


The Islamic Dinar Success in Malaysia

An historical step was made a few days ago by the Islamic Party of
Malaysia with more than 500,000 members and the Government of
Kelantan ( A state in the NE of Malaysia ) when they adopted the
Islamic Dinar as part of their policy. In a public event on the 28th of
April, in the city hall of Kuala Krai in Kelantan, members of the
Central Committee and other senior members announced the decision
to introduce the Islamic Dinar as part of the party policy. Then the
same day in the evening in a large gathering of 10,000 people in the
mini-stadium Kelaburan, the Chief Minister of Kelantan personally
endorsed the establishment of the Islamic Dinar as the currency of the
Muslims. In a talk which I was invited to give at this gathering there
was a resounding acclamation for the choice of the Islamic Dinar over
the US Dollar as the currency which the audience would choose for
themselves. I finished my talk with the words, "Allah does not say in
the Qur'an, 'US Dollar or Malaysian Ringgit'. Allah says, 'Dinar' and
'Dirham'. If we use the Islamic Dinar prosperity will come to us; if we
accept the US Dollar misery will come to us. Let us say from Kelantan
to the world "The Islamic Dinar is our currency. No more inflation.
No more Soros." A flood of people came afterwards wanting to
immediately take dinars and dirhams.

The Islamic Dinar is on its way to becoming the currency of the Muslim
peoples. And, Allah knows best, it could once again become the
currency of all people who are tired of being cheated.

The Islamic Mint acknowledges the many requests we have had for
purchase of the Dinar and the Dirham and ask your patience as we
proceed methodically towards a successful world-wide launch in
significant numbers for these most important coins, a real money! We
hope to be able to fill orders in the near future. Please visit the
Islamic
Mint for news updates.

Good information.Had never seen it posted here.

How about a link to this. I appreciate any pushing that has substance. A gulp to ya, but I'm on brandy today. I will be on tequilla tomorrow. It is the closest you can get in the store to sour mash. Ole Arthur is driving hard. Many thanx for details and the humor, Charlie

Long time no see. How about emailing your email. Mine is cdevoto@abts.net-- Thanx

Silverbarron- now you know better that this?

Date: Tue May 19 1998 09:58
Silverbaron ( DROOY major shareholders ) ID#289357:
Here's some interesting info on the major shareholders in Durban
Roodeport Deep as of their current ( 28 April 1998 ) report:

Standard Bank Nominees ( Tvl ) ( Pty ) Limited 51.02%

Indo-China Nominees ( Pty ) Limited 16.91%

First National Nominees ( Pty ) Limited 6.98%

London Control Account 4.13%

Randgold & Exploration Company Limited 3.49%

Looks like the banks own it, eh?

In most parts of the world the BANKS act as stock agents and although
I am sure banks do own some most of this is held by the bank as
NOMINE iffin I can spell right. Private owned, held in nomine by the bank.

Tally Ho

click on the digest tab and you will see a link for the GOLDBUG...

Namaste'

The Shorts are way smarter than us..

BIS, stop the B/S buried in your Charter & Articles ( of faith ) and show some buying strength, otherwise noone would know or care for what you stand for..

Euro, you murky dog, everything about you has been cloak and dagger, what are you ashamed of, disclose your darn intention and fast..

Silver, you pathetic lout..you have always burned people. Hunt Bros had lost a billion in one day, we dont have that kind of cash.

US $, F&*k you, How are you ever going to pay back and your shores will be flooded with cheap imports and your unquestioned growth will scr*w Uncle Sam real bad down the road

For Robnoel ..
See what happens when you try to sneak stuff past
me .. You get a brain dead warmed over anti apartheid
protester... serves you right.

Expect a very bad day, today, Wed 20. The people will not except anything less than Suharto go NOW.

Very nice! {:- ) ...more than one way to 'skin a cat' ( AWFUL
expression!

The turnaround for the POG will not happen when everyone expects, there will be a lag. THe Shorts have major profits to use to keep the POG down ( Artificially ) well past the point we would expect a rise.
This could be going on right now, we don't know.
The fundamentals sure don't indicate Gold should be at 300.....
They are probably milking the Gold Call market right to the bitter end,
they can afford to. That's why I won'y touch Gold options until
we have a clear turnaround.

It will happen, bang, just like that...

Date: Tue May 19 1998 10:44
Paul Gold__A ( Ultra deep gold mining ) ID#21484:
DROOY in ultra deep gold mining research partnership: see detail in
latest news item at http://www.drd.co.za/

Paul Gold- they DO core drilling in SA also. This drillin has revieled
one of the "RICHEST VEINS IN THE WORLD", may not even need to be processed other than squeezed in to a mold like an ole southern butter mold to make coins or bars.! But it is deep! Right now the richest vein is @ Cons Modder and not nearly as rich as the deep find @ DROOY. The
Cons Modder [dba Harmony] is almost on the surface infact you jest walk
down an incline shaft to it. but is is only a couple of inches thick and
spotty. This may be the surface part of the vain found at DROOY, and the
deeper you go the more defined and richer it gets.

Tally Ho

Some very important statistics from the SILVER INSTITUTE today.World SILVER demand exceeded supply from newly mined metal and scrap by 198 million ounces in 1997 ( 9 th year of supply deficit ) World consumption was lifted by 6.1 % to 863.4 million ounces.

IMHO , after the sharp sell off in SILVER over the last few days , it is possible to argue that SILVER is technically oversold.Hedge fund selling was triggered by trend following systems and proprietary traders are trying to piggy-back them.

I started getting long last week at 5.50 ( in the july COMEX with lease artes enabling you to get a positive carry for holding the metal future ) and am looking to add to my position in the 5.05/5.15 region.

Silver is a huge buy here but I can't tell for sure where the fall might end .I never buy more than what I would be ready to take on delivery and it would be wise for anybody who want to get long to do the same.

Silver is a screaming buy.

GO GOLD but don't forget to GO SILVER

For Midas and others who are singing the blues. Look at Silverbaron's post. A picture is worth a thousand words and this tells the story. While there are some retracements occuring, this is natural for a major redirection as we are experiencing. But the bottomline is that the trend is UP!!!

Go GOLD !!

Yeah, I got to thinking on it after posting the info from the report.......I think Standard is the holder of the ADRs on DROOY. Mea culpa. PS The deep find sounds good to me!

I didn't have an email address for Bernard Schwartz ( CEO of Loral ) , but I found this contact for one of his goons.

David Benton
Manager of Public Relations
Loral Space & Communications Ltd.
1755 Jefferson Davis Hwy., Suite 1007
Arlington, VA 22202
Tel: 1-703-414-1045
Fax: 1-703-414-1072
Email: david.benton@globalstar.loral.com
or davebenton@earthlink.net
By the way -- do you know which individual person contributed the most cash to the Democratic party last year? Good old Bernie Schwartz!!! Of course that fact had absolutely nothing to do with his company receiving millions from China for missle technology.

Clinton will be out of office when China implements all of the technology to required to launch missles at the mainland USA ( or perhaps our service people in Korea or Taiwan ) so what does he care? Hell be looking for a new Monica Lewinsky.

Instead of contacting Loral, maybe we should write our congressmen and tell them that were tired of THEM funding this crap.

I am surprised that there has not been a comparison between Big Trade and Another. They both expressed themselves in the same mystical way, made profound predictions that did not come true and best of all RJ was the only one noted the similiarity that was evident between both, that each typed no one as noone. Could it be have been a hoax perpetrated by the same person??? ( fool me once shame on you, fool me twice and------ )

Have to AGREEEEEEEEE

got blown away sitting at a robot ( traffic light ) ,no outcry from Mandela,wonder why maybe because he was white and god forbid British,instead the world goes nuts over the Black child that was shot,I bet even you have not heard the Durban story......as for that commie weazel he better not show his posts here I will give flameing a new meaning

I have heard this name so many times, but haven't ever seen his posts. Has anyone compiled his words? During what months/year did he post? I'd really like to see some of his stuff. Did Big Trader post on special days of the week?

The great Gold bear is over,and when the great stock bear starts,the GOLD BULL will start

To all:

I'm surprised noone has focused on the racial, or ethnic, angle of civil and social unrest. For instance, in Indonesia, the locals have gone after the Chinese living there.
It was similar here in Atlanta and other places during the Rodney King riots, when blacks roamed the downtown area looking for whites to molest and attack.
There has been much talk here of societal collapse in correlation with Y2K; If and when that happens, I think you will see American society divide into racial and/or ethnic conclaves. And with the integration and immigration policies of this country, it ought to be quite a mess.

The Preacher

Do you have a phone # or email for the BIS? For some damn reason I can't get all of my bookmarks. Thanx, Charlie

RSA, or black + white relations...THE NATURAL RESOURCES WERE, ARE AND WILL BE THE ISSUE AND OR MOTIVE. Anyone who does not understand that is a fatuous idiot.

Things are kinda looking right right now..

Go Gold Go....

All: If you are wondering where ANOTHER is, look at the USAGold site. They have a new resident commentator.

RJ, Glenn, or anyone else-
How is it that when the price of gold goes up, the price of silver and
platinum goes up as well. Are the buyers of one coordinating their
purchases with the buyers of the other? Are they the same buyers?
Is it just coincidental?

have put forth our thoughts hoping that such will not be the case. It is only a hope though as we are all witness to the disgusting bigotry that raises its ugly head in difficult times.

In addition the "scapegoat" issue has been discussed here on many a day as well. Althought the race issue seems to bring out more people, emotions and thoughts. There will be all sorts of "scapegoats" put forth when the meltdown comes about, the problem as usual, the people will be dumb enough to believe the pie holes that it was this, that or the other person, etc. instead of putting the blame where it is deserved.

With the pie holes and their criminal friends. The Coward Erect has a head start as his criminal friends are either dead, can't be found or pleading the 5th. What a pie hole he is!

To all:

I haven't seen this mentioned, but it seems that Mr. Kosares now has exclusive rights to ANOTHER and his TROUGHTS.
Mr. ANOTHER and FRIEND OF ANOTHER will be posting their comments on the USAGOLD web site from now on.

Comments?

The Preacher

Somebody made a deal!! BTW, no call yet from CLN. Will let you know. Charlie

topic,the vilifacation of South Africa started with Jimmy Carter, pandering for the black vote,this was followed by the USA communist party jumping on the band wagon,to push its agenda through universities and brain dead liberals,the inner guilt of "200 years of slavery" by white Americans made them to afraid to speak out because they could not handel being labeled "raciest"the start of Americas downfall .....POLITICAL CORRECTNESS"

What did B.GATES do to piss the US government so bad.I don't buy the anti-monopoly reason.
Thousands are working now on something which might end MICROSOFT's reign some day.Why should J. RENO care unless BILL refused to pay some legal costs for the other BILL?

Rome was too and see where they ultimately ended up. To quote an educated type:
"When youz Big, youz BAAD!"

On the other side of the fence:
"The bigger you are, the harder you fall".

Did I hear something crashing out there?

Just read some of ANOTHER on Mikeys USAGOLD site, I fail to understand why so many of you dwell on his every word.HE ACTUALLY
has very little of value to say. ( At least as far as I read ) . I believe that ANOTHER actually is a pen name for someone who is playing a game
and writing nonsense in order to confuse the issue.

Now that DOJ has moved against Microsoft, Bill Gates should simply close down any offices in the US and move offshore, that may teach the coward erect and EL Reno a thing or two.

Both did not give millions to the DNC.......

There is no question that "politically correct" thinking has confused many an issue here in the United States.

I think it ought to be changed to "patronizing c_ _ _-sucker, then I could live with the term in an honest manner...

I'll bet you one mercury dime ( my chice of date and condition ) that more good will come than harm over the Y2K problem. Think about it for a minute. What will be impaired? The IRS, high tech industry, 'just in time' inventories, huge dollar vs world currency price imbalances, leveraged deals, et cetera who knows? The people who understand the artificiality of American lifestyle have already made preparations and those who don't will never listen anyway. IMHO

I can't lose. 'Cause if I do all I have to do is wait 300 years for the phone network to be rebuilt so you can contact me to payoff. ( %-^ ) }

aztec I want to know what gold producers are sending gold to be minted into dinars to buy goods and services in Islamic countries. When we hear that, we will know gold is moving into circulation as money in Islam.

Clinton. They are afraid of him.

Frustrated Thanks for the thanks.

Alberich I think you need to represent the two dates in 1's and 0's. Then you need to know if that will be expressed left right or reversed in the chip. So you need to represent it both ways if there is no reliable documentation on the machine representation mode. Then you need to look at those 1's and 0's and deduce what logical operation ( s ) the programmer would or could perform to compare changes in one machine register to the contents of another. In low level code there is no statement for less than or greater than. Probably an OR operations code was used. Analyzing at this level enables a more definite prediction of what will happen.

But, I hazard it will verify what you have deduced by your higher level analysis. And I think it means no embedded chip can be trusted.

Not. A gulp to ya though...your choice of date and condition, ah yeah.

You got that right. Kissing arse is right up there with it. Thanx, Charlie

I think many of the same people buy some of all three metals, I personally buy silver as well, but not being really wealthy I have not bought Platinum yet.

So much for the free exchange of ideas.....Oh well, the guy has to make a buck, and he's not any good at predicting the gold market, why not? Maybe Kosares can get him on CNBC for the big bucks.

Reify: I think that is the same question as to why the precious metals all trend together. Birds of a feather flock together. I admit this is not really an answer, but who said that the markets are logical?

A corollary to this is that some types of natural events external to the markets drives the markets to some degree. I am not ready to say what this is, but this is the basis for the Fibonacci series analysis, and the Gann analysis, among other things. If you look carefully, you will also see that the stronger markets still have the same daily ups and downs as the weaker markets ( of the same type ) -- although they may be phase shifted somewhat, but the stronger markets have a stronger longer term upward trend as you might expect.

You are right on the money, IF Bill Gates were to write a large check to the DNC or Coward Erect this would end so fast it would make your head spin.

this is not good for the US manufacturing industries

( 10 ) Indian Overseas Bank launched by its gold banking on 20 Nov 1997 , at Chennai, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad coinciding with its Founder's Day celebrations. IOB is one of the seven banks licenced as a nominated agency to deal in gold, silver and platinum by government of India / Reserve bank of India ... The bank has reached a Capital Adequacy ratio of 10.07 %, against the stipulated bench mark of 8 %
http://www.iob.com/new.html

Sorry Bart but this is important,to give you an idea of some of the posters here is an example,it may just switch on a few light bulbs

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a261073.htm

I've been lurking at this site long enough to follow most of what is going on, but I will admit some of the acronyms and terminology is still a little above me. Could anyone suggest any literature/sites that give a good overview of the PM market, esp. gold? Thanks for your time.
J

AND FALLING

They always move at the opening and near close of the market in all the major centre's and try to rattle the confidence of buying public.

While the longs apparently are not organized and asleep at the switch, most of the time...IMHO, of course.

Fruit of Usury. Inevitable. Ten for Eleven silently working its evil magic while you wake, while you sleep. Read Gianni's posts. Modern Mergers parallel the mergers which created the latifundi, giant plantations of slaves, of Roman times.

http://www.integrion.net/gold/index.html

http://www.sentex.net/~resource/

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Gdt22/Definit.htm

would be made by selling every JY rally. Unfortunately, a weak JY is not good for POG.

As they accept Canadian handouts they continue to discourage the mining industry doing little to encourage economic development and investor interest.

Robnoel..
Ive seen NOTHING in the Newspapers yet about the Brit
who was killed in Durban. Nonetheless, I continue to look
on the bright side. Maybe he was a human rights lawyer.

With the yen falling, and driving down all other asian currancies,the presure on thr chinese ( HK ) to devalue increases,the US is going to be flooded with cheap imports, DEFLATION as in japan now will be the end result, US jobs?? US profits???US exports???

http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/glossary/index.html

.

John Disney-HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Them ole Durban boys would look at my wrist [rolex] then look
at me. then all I would see wuz a bunch of white teeth and a big
grin. all I found was a bunch of GOOOD FOLKS!!

You can find trouble anywhere you want to find it.

Tally Ho

adedum-You can find trouble anywhere, iffin YOU are lookin for it!

Tally Ho

They have been a drain on Canada ever since they joined confederation. They think that they have a God given right to slaughter baby seals for a few weeks & then go on unemployment insurance for the rest of the year & sit around drinking screech. I may be a little predjudiced as my former wife is a newfoundlander.

$451 spot quote above correct?

.

Your humor is getting out of hand, you hsve offended some of our friends you dont understand you once more!! I am sure you don't mean to be mean spireted ALL the time you just can't help NOT putting in a jab at the PC types. EH?

I agree with your conclusion.

These embedded chips are usually one purpose chips, they run one and the same program over and over. Very often, the program code is "burnt in" and therefore cannot be changed. And what's even more frightening: cannot be tested either.

With "test" I mean to run the function which the chip is supposed to perform under the condition that the internal chip-clock is set to the 31st of December 1999 in order to find out how the application behaves when the clock ticks forward to 1st of Jan, 2000. I don't see a possibility to set up such a test.

I supervise tests for business applications professionally. We plan to run these tests on seperate computers which we buy especially for these Y2K tests. It is quite an effort but still possible to test application code under the conditions of a manipulated system date on a computer which is programmable in a generc way for different applications. But I couldn't think of anyone who knew how to manipulate the internal clock of an embedded chip in order to run such tests. And only when you run such tests can you be sure that it works.

In the meantime, even though this is not my major field of expertise, I agree with those people who are afraid that power plants and production lines will stop working. Because noboddy really knows what kind of code is burnt into these embedded chips and these type of applications cannot be tested by simulating the Y2K event, the way we do it on business computers. I'm also pretty much convinced that the telecommunication industry will have serious problems.

All devices or systems with embedded chips are areas of greatest risk, especially if these chips do anything date related.

Alberich the Dwarf

http://www.usagold.com/ANOTHER%20PAGE

Meanwhile, in the million-monkey realm of Net coincidence, the writings
of a teacher embody interesting thoughts:

"To Reach The Stars, Aim at the Sun!... pay
the dues to deal with the masters ( the giants upon whose shoulders
*they* have stood ) ... as people get to know one
another, by their thoughts and works, evermore "stars" come into view...
we can learn from one another as never before in history... "

"One major insight that arose during a CoSN birds of a feather session
came from a "newbie" who'd lurked on lists for a while... We didn't seem
to be a "friendly" space. We need to think long and hard on this one..."

Full article
http://www.chaos.com/netteach/Vol2No2.html
Bio
http://www.tcpd.org/tcpd/serim/bio.html

Press Release
May 18, 1998

New Antitrust Suit Reveals Hatred of Success

The federal government and twenty states filed suit today to stop the
distribution of Microsoft's Windows 98 operating system upgrade. According
to Robert W. Tracinski, Director of the Committee for the Moral Defense of
Microsoft ( http://www.moral-defense.org>http://www.moral-defense.org ) , "This new attack demonstrates
clearly the real goal of the anti-Microsoft campaign-- not to enforce
standards of "fair" behavior or make Microsoft "play by the rules,"
as has been claimed, but to destroy Microsoft for the crime of being
too successful."

Tracinski cites the timing of the new suits, which threaten to interfere at
the last minute with Microsoft's scheduled release of Windows 98. "Windows
98 has been in development for years, yet they chose to file suit only after
Microsoft had already begun shipping the product to stores. What business
could operate in these conditions--having its business plans overturned by
government bureaucrats at the last minute and having shipments to customers
interrupted arbitrarily?" He also points to the complexity of the antitrust
laws, especially when enforced by many different state governments. "A book
on antitrust published several decades ago was titled 'Ten Thousand
Commandments,' a reference to the complexity and unpredictability of
antitrust case law. Now there are not only ten thousand commandments, but 51
gods issuing those commandments. Not only does Microsoft have to seek the
approval of federal regulators, but now it is being forced to seek the
approval of every state attorney general for every one of its business
practices. What company can survive this kind of barrage of regulation--a
confusing mass of rules interpreted by 51 different sets of bureaucrats?"

Most ominous, in Tracinski's view, is the Justice Department's demand that
Microsoft allow equipment manufacturers to bundle Netscape's Web browser
with Windows 98 instead of Microsoft's Internet Explorer. A Microsoft
spokesman has described this as equivalent to the demand that Coca-Cola
include a can of Pepsi in every six-pack. Tracinski agrees and adds, "This
is an attempt to rob Microsoft of its property--in effect to nationalize
Windows and turn it into a publicly owned commodity, over which Microsoft
has no control. That's the real goal of the anti-Microsoft campaign. Because
Microsoft has been so successful, because it has made a product that so many
people want to buy, its competitors want to steal that product and use it,
against the owner's wishes, to help market their own products."

Tracinski concludes, "The moral issue here is whether Microsoft is to be
punished for its success. The message the Justice Department and the twenty
state attorneys general are sending is that if you become so successful that
other people regard your product as indispensable--your reward will be to
have your property seized from you by the government and handed over the
envious competitors."

The Committee for the Moral Defense of Microsoft is a non- profit
organization composed of businessmen, academics, and concerned citizens who
are opposed to the current assault on Microsoft and to the antitrust laws
under which it is being prosecuted.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Committee for the Moral Defense of Microsoft
PO Box 6525
Charlottesville, VA 22906
USA

phone: 540/967-5898
fax: 540/967-5857
http://www.moral-defense.org




You are receiving this mailing to inform you
of events related to the moral-defense
petition you signed recently. Your name was
added to this list because you signed our
petition, or you requested it.

To UNSUBSCRIBE to moral-defense-list, send an
email to:

moral-defense-request@moral-defense.org

SEQUIN ( MICROSOFT ) ID#25171:
What did B.GATES do to piss the US government so bad.I don't buy the
anti-monopoly reason

Been trying to contact , but no answer. Once I get the web, i can discuss it with them. Maybe their out there digging up big nuggets. If I get a chance , I'll leave a message

amount of transaction: US$ n/a
city: Washington
prov/state: Washington D.C.
country: USA

description of transaction: International Finance Corporation S&P 500 Index Bear Market Warrants with 3 month reset expiring Nov 20, 1997 1,250,000 warrants at $3.84 per warrant trading symbol OPT.WS The Chicago Board Options
Exchange Capital Markets Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. EVEREN Securities Inc.
contact:Mr n/a
company:Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. position: n/a
address: New York New York
phone: 212-667-7000 fax: n/a
Date of Entry: Thu Dec 5 22:06:34 1996
id number: 15614
IFC=WB...take a look at the job theyre doing! {:- (
http://www.ifc.org/

"all other things being equal, far from being a cause for celebration and self-congratulation, 1 January 2000 will be one of the darkest, and most dangerous, days in this Nation's history." quote from the

Center for Security Policy webpage entitled:

Bridge to Nowhere: Inattention to the 'Millennium Bug' Threatens the Nation's Security

http://www.security-policy.org/papers/1998/98-C24.html

RT..
People just dont understand me...
I just try to look on the bright
side.

RJ
except when you say that you heard
platinum say "buy me" ... because I
thought I heard it say "look out"

Yes indeedy weedy

dirtbag of monumental proportions and the American people are dummies.

will win the case the JD has brought
against it. The taxpayer will lose.
I think the costs for the case should
come from the salaries of Reno and that
bunch of boy scout looking lawyers
she has with her. This is another
example of why its better NOT to have
a government.

Downunder-You are correct. Saw an interview with a shipping ( container ) exec on CNBC last week who indicated that his company's freighters are loaded enroute to USA but are returning virtually empty to Asia. "I've never seen ANYTHING quite like this," he remarked. Personally, I'm sitting on my hands for a few months, then plan to scarf up a state-of-the-art Pentium PC for under $500.

Results in about 2 weeks Hang on to your HAT.Love Plat/Pall..

The worst is yet to come

ROB: Interesting article.
AG really wants the bubble to pop at the last minute.
Could be that it will buy time for his minions to get out in time and go into hard assets.Not to mention that the US have some election coming soon.What would be the fate of an administration which would have brainwashed its citizen to the extent of making them all poor, with no retirement money, overnight.
The higher it goes ...

Sell Gold, Buy Yahoo..

Could anyone please explain this AM's action on Greenstone Resources? It closed Fri. @ 7.85 but opened and traded at 8.70 this morning. Subsequent trades were in the 7.80 range. Who paid the $8.70?

They seem to be giving Inco lots of grief and I can't see it any better for the Jr companies that promote our investment.

If our high tech stuff doesn't work, why would anybody else's ?
Where is the great danger going to come from ? Mexico ?

What the hell is this!! I would appreciate a short comment from you about this. I have it booked, but where does this money come from?? I suspect
there is more into personnel than into projects. Hard to figure right of the bat. Thanx, Charlie

Even though nobody thought they would , it is nice to see that the DOW lost about 60 points in 45 minutes after the news.
Lots of insider selling and IPO cap the market but the psychology seems to have turned at least in the short term.

kitkat-some Bishop subscriber with mo money then brains.

Tally Ho

I just checked out the trading for GRE. All of the 8.70 trades came at the open. There were a total of 5,600 shares traded at that price. Three different brokerage houses were buying and three different ones were selling.
Then four minutes later, the next trade was 40 shares down at 8.00 and the price has dropped ever since. There is no press release and this is one of the stranger pieces of trading action I've seen in a while.
I'll investigate a bit on this one.

The Preacher

Some places overseas will have national security concerns that are valid if US military machines can't be relied on because of Y2K.

Mexico surely gobbles up bucks...

description of transaction: United Mexican States $6,000,000,000 floating rates notes due 2001 The Republic of Slovenia $325,000,000 7% notes due 2001 Republic of Argentina $500,000,000 floating rate notes due 1999 The Republic of Turkey $500,000,000 8.25% notes due 1999 Republic of Lithuania $33,000,000 Term Credit facility Republic of South Africa pounds 100,000,000 9 3/8% notes due 2006 Republic of Poland $250,000,000 7.75% notes due 2000 People's Republic of China $300,000,000 6 5/8 % notes due 2003 and $100,000,000 9% bonds due 2096 JP Morgan arranged these financings.
contact:Mr n/a
company:J.P.Morgan position: n/a

RE: CHEAP IMPORTS...Been having this recurring nightmare: US wants to
buy, they don't want to sell to US for USD...ostensibly cheap goods, but
empty shelves...

their uptrend. Many slightly over or under 50 day MA. Note that money flow does not show significant liquidation and some accumulation in some issues. IMHO some more to go but it will be a buy opportunity

LGB: Your skepticism re: gold was correct. Looks like it will reach RJ's target of $295. But gold looks like the rock of Gibralter compared with silver. What went wrong?

Sharply rising insider selling must precede the inevitable y2k market crash. A sure sign. Another sign --the Fed raising bank reserve requirements. Higher reserves are necessary to meet the demand of folks who want to withdraw their FeRNs from the bank.

Exactly!!!!! {:- )

Thanks. Let me know if you find out anything else. BTW I admit to being a bit over aggressive yesterday with AYORK. You were correct in intervening. Optimistic predictions clashing with the reality of dropping prices set my teeth on edge.

For acronyms, go back to April 10 at 13:18 and copy Sam's post. He has put together a good list, HTH.

For an introduction to the metals markets generally. Too broad an area to find at one source or book. Are you looking to invest in futures,mining stocks, options, physical? As a hedge? For numismatic appreciation? Are you seeking the how or the why of metals investment? Reword the question and I'd bet someone here will have some recommendations for you.

what the term even means.

Preacher, OldSoldier: Whatever useful information we got from ANOTHER will be of much less value in the more closed dialogue of the USAGold site. However, there will be less likelihood that the innocent and unwary will be misled ( less exposure ) .

I doubt I would learn anything more anyway, as we now have many good sources of information on this site, and the mysteries of the LBMA, contango, gold/dollar carry and BIS are about as unraveled as they can be. Our excellent colleagues will keep us up to date. What we need now is the expterise of the traders, as the fundamentals are clear to most of us. Gold is heading up -- not down. But the timing and strength of the gold rally is not clear.

you should not change the percentage of people not knowing of Y2K but change the 'sphere' of people to include the world....... ( why do we need to compare everything to Americans......? ) Isn't this a bit arrogant or ethnocentric ( sp ) , etc...... We wouldn't want all these nice non-US kitcoites to become offended.........this is a WORLD economy we are in. The same large boat so to speak. Uh huh.

away......back to the grind.

EB

Having served in several countries I think the percentage should be closer to 97%

the price of oil is gettin a bit looooooooooooow.....OUCH. What will happen to gold now if it closely linked as ANOTHER would say. Or did he say that? Didn;t read most of his stuff anyway.....I can always buy the book, eh? ....or read the ANOTHER files online.....eh Sharefin?

away...to watch out for 12 bucks a barrel...... ( ? )

EB

come into contact with here, therefore my yard-stick in terms of sheer numbers is made up of Americans.

Namaste'

JTF, I think you have me confused with RETIRED SOLDIER. I have never posted a comment about another.

Tolerant1 How right you are about the vast majority knowing nothing about Y2K. In fact, many are proud that they know nothing. One fellow boasted to me, "That computer crap can't hurt me. I don't like them, and I don't use them!" Same rationale as many opposed to weapons and a national army. Y2K impact will be worse than most can imagine because the social consequences will multiply the physical consequences many times. Fools and their lives will soon be separated.

I too have started to spread the word by talking to people about the Y2K threat. I'm passing out printouts, etc.
BUT ON SECOND THOUGHT.
Are these people and those they talk to going to be beating on my door come the last months before Y2K for help? Those of us who have developed a small reputation of knowing something about computers know this scenario. When friends, neighbors or aquaintances thereof have a problem with their PC - Hey, call Joe he knows about computers, etc.
As sharefin expressed earlier. I would then be in the nasty position of saying NO - it is too late to help you now - you should have prepared. I do not have room in my lifeboat for all of you.
MAYBE TIS BEST TO KEEP QUIET AND OUR PREPARATIONS HIDDEN.

The percentage of GOLD backing in the ECB is relative to reserves which might be used to intervene on the parity of EUROs versus other traded financial assets.
Am I mistaken?
It is in no way a backing for a monetary agregate which might be some day redeemable in GOLD.Thus , the real backing of EUROs in circulation will be quite small.
The percentage at the center of the discussion might influence the GOLD market psychology, but to base one's theory ( the demise of the US $ as world's reserve currency ) on a fractional amount of GOLD backing for a currency ( even 30% would be a mere 15 billion EURO ) seems curious.
ANOTHER comment we will watch together, yes?

@ Squirell;
There is an old saying about advice. You should never give advice to anyone. A wise man doesn't need it and a fool will not listen.

.

Sorry they keep getting us confused, I think we are pretty close to the same age? That must be it. Toujours Pret!

I too would not want to be in studio.r's office today.......so, I'm not...ohmy. Put Lini and children on American this morning for Los Cabos de San Jose ( for their fiscal safety ) , I leave tomorrow for same, ...and I'll be carrying the gold....They "take" gold and dollars en Mejico?.....senor?....ole'! Sorry, nuthin' but a "duster" here....ohmy.

I Shut 'er down Thursday nite after I heard Frank had died....haven't been at the office for more than two hours since....no damn use...all the abuse.
I think I'll leave 'er shut until Frank comes back. Frank did it My Way.

What a way to run a railroad...all charitable contributions welcome....and as Roger Miller once said, ( ANOTHER dead Okie ) ..."chug-a-lug, chug-a-lug.....makes you wanta' go Hidey-hoo........ol' mejico....

I, too, have decided to keep my mouth shut. My husband and I are soon to close on a house in the backwoods of Litchfield County, Connecticut. Last night I had a hard time convincing him that we should get some "prepared meals" for 2 for 3 months put aside -- you know that survivalist C-ration stuff that doesn't need cooking or water. ( He's already agreed to other preparations ) . Anyway, I think it's smarter to keep one's mouth shut. When I initially said something to someone in my family who lives in a city of a half-million people that borders New York City, he laughed and said we were fear-mongering. So, enough. Take your gold and secure it, get your immediate family prepared, and then pray Y2K is just a non-event. Then, if the time comes, give those you trust most who aren't prepared a chance to be bailed out. Just remember, if you tell one person they may tell another...and it snowballs.

Old Soldier: A mental lapse on my part -- the message was addressed to Retired soldier. While I have your attention, do you have any comments about the China missle situation where our high-tech defense firms actually helped the Chinese make their missles more reliable? I have friends in the defense industry ( mostly from years back ) who said that they were always scurrying around trying to advance US military technology because of all the leaks with the Russians that made the older stuff obsolete. But -- this is the first time I can recall an official condonement of direct information transfer. Looks like the Communist Chinese don't need spies anymore -- they just donate a little campaign money.

If I was CIA, FBI or Secret service -- responsible for White House security -- I would be going nuts. What do you think -- are they fed up?

And why didn't Warren Christopher resign when he was overruled, and the satellite technology access was transferred to Commerce and Ron Brown?

What really worries me is that Clipper technology that our government wanted for their back door access could equally well be used by a foreign power to access all of our own systems, if the security codes got out. Pretty dumb -- we could very well have shot ourselves in the foot.

I hope the access security codes have been changed, and all the clipper chips have been removed. Hope they are not in the orbiting satellites. Hey -- there's a useful job for the space shuttle -- if the astronauts can get to the clipper chips!

Q.: If our high tech stuff doesn't work, why would anybody else's ?

Where is the great danger going to come from ?

A: Possibilities:

Indirect attacks on the US:

By N.Korea on S.Korea

by China on Taiwan

by Russia on Israel

by Iran or Iraq on Saudi Arabia

the above have enough low-tech gear to do the job.

Direct attacks on the US:

terrorist attacks by Iran, Iraq, N.Korea, &/or Cuba on coastal cities; attacks by China from low-tech subs, using nukes.

Reminiscent of the suprise attack on the 7th Century B.C. superpower Assyria by Nabopolasser. Assyria vanished from history in a matter of days. Y2k is a military opportunity --a kind that comes along once in

a thousand years.

STUDIO.R What happened?

First of all, its not really just the DOJ. The DOJ is just the enforcement arm of the Klinton adminstration and the DNC. Its called corporate extortion of political contributions if you don't want your business to suffer from legislation or regulations aimed at damaging your profitability.

This is the new method for politicians to get money for their warchests. Businesses are now compelled to donate money in advance so the long arm of government passes them by and victimizes someone else.

The crime for Bill Gates and Microsoft is twofold. Bill is the richest man in the US and he has not paid his dues to the Demos. Similarly, Microsoft is making money hand over fist and they are not paying their fairshare in extortion funds.

So, WJC sends out his enforcers ( Mafia style ) to get the proper payment owned. Well the DOJ cannot threaten to burn down Microsoft or break Bill Gates legs. No, the only acceptable leverage that they have is to drag Bill & Micro through the public arena of a media trial with the threat of going to court if they don't play ball. With the full faith and power of the US Govt behind this one, it could drag out for months or years and has a HEFTY price tag attache. The Feds won't go away until they have their pound of flesh and spent your tax dollars getting what they want - which is more campaign contribution $s for their warchests.

Who needs campaign reform when we have this kind of system?


NOTE: All that I reflected above was based on an article I read in Forbes magazine some 6+ months ago. If I am fortunate enough to come across it again soon, I will give you the specific date and page. This stuff is real.

Warren Christopher didn't resign right away because he never had any cojones in the first place. Few remember 14 years after the fact, but he was the chief negotiator for Jimmy Carters State Dept trying to free the hostages, ineffective then ineffective as SecState but he like the trappings of power that he really didn't have. I don't know about CIA ,FBI and SecServ but the military persons I am in contact with are VERY disgusted.

As to another, I never took him seriously anyway, I think he is just pulling chains. Shalom

All: Intraday markets -- rather weak finish for the day, despite expected unchanged rates. Tomorrow will be interesting. I wonder how jittery the markets will be tomorrow after the planned demonstrations ( riots ) in Indonesia.

Russia: Anyone know why the Russian markets are plummeting? A Coup perhaps? Financial catastrophe? Bullish or bearish for gold? You need to have eyes in the back of your head to invest in any form of equities, even gold stocks.

Things will be much more interesting in the fall of 1999. I suspect that by then, Y2k will be all over the papers, unless ( contrary to my expectation ) the problem is widely considered solved.

There will be many reports of food-stashers, weapons-gatherers, etc., those who are putting their money into PMs, etc.

Those reports alone should cause some sort of fun-up er run-up in bullion prices.

People are sheep. Or birds. When one bird in the flock takes off, the others follow. Right now, the birds are sitting on the wire just watching the Y2k blimp pass by in the distance. Once the time gets close and things get serious, we will all be saying, Why didn't we see this coming, meaning, not the Y2k problem, but why didn't we foresee the way the public would react once the reality is inescapable.

Public perception may be more important than the underlying reality.

I love the quote from Margaret Thatcher ( I have not confirmed it ) , to the effect that the veneer of civilization is thin.

Y2k is a most appropriate topic for this forum. For those of us who continue to invest in gold out of sheer stubbornness ( that's a lot of double letters if I have it spelled right ) , Y2k may be our biggest hope.

Looked over website. They have some good looking properties. You're right- any positive drilling results should give it a good push. Should be a damn good bet. Thanx, Charlie

I guess I should have known better. The fiat wash is rivalling the ocean. I need tp try to surf it.

Thanks. Interesting stuff

Reired Soldier: Appreciate your comments. I know myself well enough that I will get the two of you mixed up, despite that the two of you have clearly defined, different personalties. I didn't know that Warren Christopher was involved in the Carter era hostage negotiations fiasco. I forgot that ineptness in military/defense matters is not limited to this administration. I guess Warren Christopher is not worried about those Chinese missles pointed in our direction. Pretty stupid, I would say, and I am not a military man.

military. The two most compliant societies on earth are US and Canada,
ergo everyone else is less of a threat, not more. If Y2K is as bad as painted, then potential enemies are going to be busy just trying to feed themselves, not invading. North America is still safest. I would worry about Mexico. One million wetbacks this year could turn into 10 million human locusts in 2000.

About 2 years ago I suggested here that the time to have bought gold was before the public got the idea that it was a good thing to do. Examples of this are renewed interest in freeze dried food, portable water purifiers, generators, Swiss bank accounts, news letters ( eg Ruff, MacAvity, Aden sisters ) , and in the late '90's Infomercials and maybe YK2. What will really get my interest is the arrival of books by Harry Brown ( and imitators ) telling readers how to adjust their life-again- for the expect bad times. His original publications should do--except for the lists of "safe" communities which must have change by now.

.

An explosive allegation that President Clinton's Democratic Party
received campaign money from the Chinese military has breathed new
life into a scandal that had seemed ready to fade away. Republicans
led by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and House Speaker Newt
Gingrich were quick to pounce on the report in the New York Times
that former Democratic Party donor Johnnie Chung had told Justice
Department investigators that in 1996 he gave to the Democrats
$100,000 he received from China's People's Liberation Army. Lott and
Gingrich both vowed to set up new investigations of the allegation by
Chung, who is cooperating with a Justice Department criminal probe of
Democratic fund raising in the 1996 presidential election as part of
a plea bargain agreement. See
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554232690-9d8

All: Don't forget Donald's post -- Venezuela can't pay its federal phone bill. Just how much lower does oil need to go before Venezuela goes off-line in more ways than one? This will not wait for y2k, IMHO.

Oil= $10./bbl tonight. So, at my company's rate of production...we lose $1000./day in keeping the lites on. This isn't that big of a deal...we oilies get used to it ( sad to say ) ...I was spoofin' a wee bit in my post to EB.

We are buying way-out crude futures right now....better than owning wells, as usual, the numbers don't lie...this "reserve" positioning is called "the Texas Hedge". Takes guts and stupidity...but it works. Hell, Better Judgement....out the door!

The co. has enough cash to endure four or so years of this...this is a fact. Thanks to the "wary" nature of my partner and myself. WE'll be looking for "weak sisters" in the next few months...maybe pick up some cheap reserves hopefully.

Just got off the phone with my cash management woman, and instructed her to go 50% actual green cash bills. No paper reports or "bonds"....just green bills. Won't earn any interest, but right now, I'm very, very concerned with what I see happening in the financial marketplace..........intuitive management only.

Where Warren Buffett moves, so will silver market: report


LONDON, May 19 ( AFP ) - Silver prices are likely to remain high
as long as US financier Warren Buffett keeps on to his giant stake,
about 20 percent of supplies on the market, the Silver Institute
said in its annual report on Tuesday.
As long as those supplies "continue to be held off-market, then,
at the very least, the chances of silver losing all the gains of the
past six months would see remote," the report said.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment fund sent the silver
market sky high when it revealed in February that it had bought
129.7 million ounces of silver between July 25 and January 12 on the
London Bullion Market.
The news, after months of rumours of price manipulating in the
secretive market, was a sensation.
Other traders tried to follow Buffett, who has an enormous
reputation for sound long term investments, sending prices to around
7.50 dollars an ounce.
Since then, prices have steadily slipped in an increasingly
nervous market, as traders look for signs of Buffett's intentions.
Silver was trading on Tuesday afternoon on the London Bullion Market
at 5.23 dollars an ounce, although still up on 4.77 dollars an ounce
in early 1997.
According to the institute's study, silver prices will also
depend largely on demand from India, the world's second most
populous country and a big consumer of silver for traditional
jewellery.
Indian imports rose in March 1998 to about 237 tonnes after a
slow six month period of about just 60 tonnes a month, due to high
prices, the report said.
1997 was a record year for the metal, during which it fell to a
four-and-a-half year low in July at 4.22 dollars an ounce, then hit
a nine-year record in December at 6.26 dollars an ounce.
It was also a year in which silver prices rose independently of
gold prices, which have been sinking in the wake of sell-offs by
central banks.
The report was compiled for the Silver Institute by Gold Fields
Mineral Services ( GFMS ) , which is funded by the Gold Fields of South
Africa Ltd producer.

JTF 16:04 The current nuclear proliferation and arms race in Asia is the fault and responsibility of Clinton. The facts are known and simple. The Chinese bought Clinton. Some of the pay back included providing staging, guidance and MIRVing technology to the Chinese. The Indians seeing this properly felt greater threat from the Chinese and took the prudent decision to advance their nuclear technology. Pakistan seeing this came to the same proper conclusion and decided to advance their nuclear technology.

The last time we had anybody near this dangerous in the white House was Jimmy Carter. He just loved everybody and gave the Soviet Union Ford truck plants and Dresser Driller tungsten carbide technology. Truck are vital to any war machine. Tungsten carbide technology is vital to deep drilling for oil. It is also used to make long rod penetrators to kill tanks. Of course, the Soviet Union promised not to do that and apparently Carter was sap enough to believe it.

Clinton is far more dangerous than Carter because he is a totally amoral, self-serving, draft dodging, coward. Cowards are very dangerous because they will do anything without compunction to save their own skin.

Many life long patriotic public officials are sickened by Clinton. I was and being eligible for retirement, simply retired. As I was signing out, the personnel officer reminded me that as a Regular Army Officer I was subject to recall to Active Duty in time of need. I told him that he neednt call me until after Bill Clinton had deployed because I was never going to deploy ahead of and for him again.

Why didnt Warren Christopher resign? Why have so few Americans ordered to do immoral or wrong things not resigned? Because they like or lust for power and they lack the will to do what is right when faced with adversity. Human nature.

I do not know if the Clipper technology has been compromised. I am sure that there is much else that has been compromised. So much smoke usually indicates a big fire somewhere.

No problem, Old Soldier and I have exchanged private e-mails about this. We are both amused by it. In fact he thought I was an old friend of his, and I thought he was an old friend of mine, we didn't know each other in the Army but we are ( I think ) new friends now. I must appologize for one minor error I made in my post, it was 18 years ago not 14, time flies when you are retired and having too much fun. You are right stupidity is not only exhibited by this bunch, Kennedy,Johnson,Carter,
and even Eisenhower AS PRESIDENT did some very stupid things. It was Eisenhower who planned and approved the Bay of Pigs operation, and Kennedy who executed it POORLY, amd of cours Eisenhower sent the FIRST "advisors" to Viet Nam and Laos in 61. I was in Laos in 61 and RVN in 65-67 and was pretty disgusted both times. Maybe all the stupidity will drive up the price of Gold eventually ( NOTICE THIS REFERENCE BART ) I know I get off the real subject from time to time but since political and military mistakes have an effect on gold it is not a bad thing to discuss it once in a while, NO?

Sonoma Resources ( SNA.Vancouver ) rose C$.09 today to close at $.29, a 45% gain that is well-bid.
Rumor has it that SNA is taking over an American company that is not resource related. SNA has over C$4 million in the treasury and can do things.
If you recall, last week I mentioned Mrs. Wendy McCleery and said she had taken 1 million shares in a private placement at C$.15 and that she had a history of making money on her cheap shares. Well, ol' Wendy has made C$140,000 this week, if my math is correct.
Keep your eyes on her.

The Preacher

I have to say, Midas, that I feel as you do when it comes to how gold has behaved in recent times. Certainly, there have been better places than gold to invest over the last 18 years ( euphemism if I ever uttered one ) .

Here's how bad it's been. At S&P/Gold ratio of 0.130, the ratio bottomed in 1980. Since then, it's high was hit this year. 3.769. That's a rise in the ratio of 2,800%. Annualize that figure over 18 years, and the result is that equities have appreciated vis-a-vis gold at an annual rate of 20.7% per year. No wonder we are in pain.

But hang on. Today we closed at 3.718, 32.7% over 1968's peak ( 2.802 ) . Following that peak in 1968, equities vis-a-vis gold declined to the 1980 trough of 0.130. This is an annualized decline in the value of equities relative to gold of 22.6% per year. Wow!

So, yes, the seeming relentess decline from 1980 to the present is depressing. But to have been in gold from 1968 to 1980 was a greater rise relative to equities than what we have endured in this cycle, and equities now are about a third again higher than they were in 1968. When the tide turns--AND IT WILL TURN--we will praise the heavens that we GOT GOLD.

Got gold and sleeping better for it,

Fergie

kiwi,
I read your post with strong anticipation of seeing something concerning an electric car battery that uses silver, but didn't see anything.
Can you tell me why you linked the two together in your header? And do you have info about a silver-using electric battery?

The Preacher

See Colin Seymours' May 19th revision to my post of yesterday on this forum. http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/murabitn.htm

OldSoldier,RetiredSoldier,Studio R.: It is good to know we have such diverse backgrounds on Kitco. I think we will need every bit of knowledge we can get our hands on to make money investing.

All: Tonight will be interesting. Major riots in Indonesia could upset tommorrows markets. Gold just does not seem to want to budge. It must be that only us goldbugs see the worlds warts.

they were taken over by Inco. With the outrageous demands being made by the Natives & the self-styled demagogue-Brian Tobin, I would'nt touch any Companies involved there with the proverbial 10 ft pole.

Date: Tue May 19 1998 14:56
mozel ( @Y2K National Security Concerns ) ID#153102:
If our high tech stuff doesn't work, why would anybody else's ?
Where is the great danger going to come from ? Mexico ?

As far as conventional assaults from a foreign country is concerned you are correct. But, What if a country decides to use poison, biological weapons or radioactive waste while we are busy dealing with Y2K problems. I don't believe this will happen, but not having our high tech police and military equipment available to find and try to stop them, will add to the problem.

I feel it is much more likely that a country that hates the US will go after the infrastructure and expensive toys instead of the population during the time that the Y2K problem disrupts the nation. The US infrastructure really has it's butt sticking up in the air. None of the utilities are guarded, the fiber optic communications system is exposed in thousands of places and most refineries look like they are just sitting there ready to be torched. If the terrorist do not kill anyone, then more anger will be directed at the USG for not stopping them than will be directed at the terrorist. If they kill a lot of people then everyone will be trying to find and stop them. Anyway how are you going to tell the difference between a Y2K failure and the actions of a sneaky terrorist if the Y2K problem shuts down our communications and electric power system?

I sure hope none of the above happens but I am not ignoring the possibility.

Happiness through paranoia

Its not Gold backing, that may "demise of the US $ as world's reserve currency". In growing scale EURO will replace US $ in international trade, it will become also a part of reserve of CBs of non-EMU countries. There where also number of articles about possibility of replacing US $ by EURO in illegal transactions. Many reasons for that, starting with simple one - cash is acceptable in 11 countries - no necessity for bank exchange transactions.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.34 The 50 day moving average is 29.65

site of industrial precious metals institute
http://www.ipmi.org/bgcs0047.htm

Oil is down to $10 ? last time I heard it was $15 or so.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .272 The 50 day moving average is also .272

Gold/Silver Ratio = 57.61

You both clearly don't understand the oil market. Oil and Gold don't flow in the same direction. Oil at $10 means it's in a raging bull market. If Oil goes to $30/barrel, then Studio.R's company will go bankrupt, for the same reason that Kitco will fold when Gold gets to $600/oz. Yes? I hope you now understand.

It is no secret that INCO and Falconbridge are having a difficult time mining nickel ore in their base of Sudbury. INCO hoped to get cheap ore at Voisseys Bay but events make this look difficult. As has been noted here in the past a junior --Flag Resources-- has 70 000 acres with nickel gold and cooper showings about 30 miles east of Sudbury and with signs that the deposits are only 200-300 feet down and not the 8000 feet that the current mines have reached. Flag's drilling is expected to start on their base metal showings in the next week or so. If Flag ( Fgr.a ASE ) actually finds an ore body--Voisseys Bay will look very far away.

Today I recieved from Rick Rule a strong push promotional flyer on Donner touting it as the next Diamond Fields with interviews from Ceo & co. mining experts who claim to have been instrumental pioneers in Diamond Field. On May 1, Bob Bishop put out a strong buy @ $2.94. The stock closed today down .35 to $1.66 ! OUCH !
What in tar & far is going on down there in South Voisey Bay ?
Last week on this forum, I remember several negative posts re "Voisey Bay" drill results & resisted the temtation to buy.
What is the news about SOUTH Voisey Bay & Donner in particular ?

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

And now, from million monkey land, the Arabian camel connection:

"Serim proposed what he called a "carava/serai" model, named after the
oasis points on Mideast trade routes where camel caravans stopped to
exchange goods and prepare for the next journey..."

"As an example, Serim cited his own virtual Caravanserai, the Online
Internet Institute, an ever-changing group of online educators who work
together to complete projects based on similar interests. "Every person
is both a learner and a teacher, no matter who they are..."

http://inet.ed.gov/Technology/Futures/carvin.html

yes, sir, the Venezuelan situation may deteriorate into a "western-style" Indonesian-debacle, soon, and central and eastern Mexico will immediately follow suit. These sudden jolts of vast economic constriction, perhaps, are little more than shock right now....but this condition will soon turn into a human-debasing economic depression. These two "emerging" countries are being dismantled as we whistle and patiently wait here in the States.

JTF, I appreciate your input on a daily basis, and proudly second your "hail" for the diversity. ;^ ) ~

My take on MR. ANOTHER. And his new location, for advancing the interests of "ANOTHER" Gold site.

I hold that there is only "ONE" gold site, that is greater than the term "DISCUSSION GROUP".

I consider Kitco to be a valuable place to learn, and with the knowledge given, via, the shared experience and interests, of the daily contribution, of great and caring individuals, allows others, such as myself, to advance forward, with the new found information, "ONLY" available at KITCO, and certainly not at MR. ANOTHERS new found home.

I do not consider the "OTHER" gold site to be of any interest to this Kitco Fan.

MR. ANOTHER: call him "MR. Tripe"...much has been written, nothing has been said.

Mr. Another's new home: "WRIT OF RIGHT"....a common law writ for restoring to its "OWNER" property held by "ANOTHER"

Mozel: Is this why "Mr. Another" posts at the other Gold site. Mr. Another is the owner, of the other gold site?

Mozel: I am trying to learn this Common Law stuff : ) : ) : )
Take Care.

That's his selling price. Call 1 800-sell-oil and you can hear the taped message for the price those boys can get for their crude today. The prices you have mentioned sound like a futures quote, and not a near month.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/commodities.html

Thank you for your enlightening post. I shall copy and memorize your words of wisdom, and will immediately begin speculation as to the origins of your accent.

All: Have a look at this. I bet Matt Drudge is busy digging up something too! This is from his site.

http://www.nypostonline.com/news/1919.htm

In a very stern manner I have told family and friends that I will not be around nor help...when the time comes if they have not made any preparations it will be their own fault and I do not intend on making those who put forth the effort and prepare, suffer due to the apathetic.

What good would it do to talk about it now? All the talking in
the world will not change things. Y2K will strike on time,
nothing can change that. How can it benefit one to divulge
preperation plans to "friends"......and enemies? It will only
place the survival of one's family in danger.

Be prepared to turn "friends" from your door. Okay, so I'm
selfish. But how will it benefit anyone if I go down also?

If oil goes to $30./bbl.........the company will fold due to my nuevo riche consumption, er go, G-3 engine turnarounds, nugget jewelry and weekly "RODEOS" in Vegas....ohmy...I just now understand what ANOTHER was talking about...Viva! Las Vegas! oil in my hair and gold 'round my neck, oh yea!, movin' all together now...yea, groovin'up and down... ( sniff ) ...uh huh, like the boogaloo........get down, wahooooooo.

Drinks all around!

Whats this got to do with gold, I'll get to that. Well I'm moving from Kansas to Iowa. I call the car registration people to find out what car registration costs. They say their mainframe computer in Ames is down. I called twice, down both times. Can't even give me a quote without their silly computer. I bet they got year 2K problems out the ying-yang. Come Y2K I hope the whole thing system snaps. Then people will get to relearn some timeless lessons, like the real value of precious metals. Go Gold.

http://www.bis.org

Oh well. An old boss used to tell me that a problem identified is a problem that's half solved.

USA Today: "Make a phone call on Jan. 1, 2000, and there's a good chance that the call won't go through."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/mds4.htm

If Mr Another had started out at the OTHER site, would his THOUGHTS have
taken root as they did in this forum... meanwhile, gold and the DOW
moved in the same direction ( down ) after the FOMC failed to take
action against inflation. This shows the weakness in the markets-
toppy, maybe one final push to 10,000 but either way ( crash soon,
or crash before the end of the year ) equities and commodities shall
change places.

See if that 1 ( 800 ) SELL OIL toll-free number works from Tejas...I'm interested to know. By the way, it it does, call after 5:15 and you will hear tomorrow's quote which should be right at $10.00/bbl. Thanks, man.

I am interested in more of the how. I have stuck to mining stocks and PM funds, but I can't get the leverage I would like since I am a small investor. I always assumed derriv.'s were for the larger fish, even though I accept the risk.

Whoever is pushing the price of RANGY up, would you please quit. I want to get some much cheaper. P.S. Don't buy HGMCY either. It is finally starting to drift down a little.

NYSE floor broker pleads guilty to illegal trading

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - One of eight New York Stock Exchange floor brokers charged with reaping more than $11.1 million in illegal trading profits became the first to plead guilty to the charges on Tuesday.

Robert Carucci, 36, of Staten Island, New York, pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court to illegal trading for accounts at the Oakford Corp. He admitted violating regulations that bar floor brokers from trading for their own benefit.


KPMG Peat Marwick settles Orange County lawsuits

SAN FRANCISCO ( Reuters ) - KPMG Peat Marwick LLP said Tuesday it will pay $75 million to settle four lawsuits brought against the firm over its involvement in Orange County's disastrous 1994 bankruptcy.

KPMG said the settlement ends all litigation against the firm related to the bankruptcy. The lawsuits that had been brought against the firm claimed a total of $3.5 billion in damages, including a $3 billion suit by Orange County.

RJ:

Please forgive this attempt to bring out your case against ANOTHER into the light of day so that we, too, can put it to rest for the last time.

For some time now, you and your follower LGB ( or is it the other way around? ) have taken gratuitous swipes at ANOTHER and his so-called disciples and when challenged retreated behind protestations about how long ago you called him a fraud and a hoaxer. Let's forget the labels and time-sensitive acusations and address the tough questions.

1. What fraudulent comments has ANOTHER made?

2. What is the nature of his "hoax"? How do you purport that he profits from his "fraudulent" behavior? What do you suggest that his true motives are for his allegedly "fraudulent" actions?

3. What are your own motives in disparaging him? You seem to think that anyone with any interest in his THOUGHTS whatsoever caneither honestly be termed a "disiple" or "follower" or must needs be bitter over having lost money on the purchase of a book not authored by ANOTHER and to whom no poster here has ever credibly suggested that he might even be profitting from in any way. Does this attitude reflect your own situation influencing you to draw these conclusions? In other words, ( hopefully more clearly than ANOTHER himself asked you on another occasion ) does Monex include in your job description your disparaging of others who offer a credible case for the taking of a long position in Gold? As an employee of Monex, are you required to take the intellectual positions you take here? Or do your own remarks on every subject reflect your own true personal opinions, not necessarily those of your employer?

4. You have often criticized ANOTHER's use of the English language and his unusual writing style. Have you made similar comments about the writing style of other unusual posters such as Cherokee or EB? If not, why not?

5. Do you have any opinion ( either personal or official ) on the long-term price of gold? Do you feel that the value of gold can never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, rise into the thousands of dollars at any time during your ( or our ) lifetimes?

6. If, as you say, you have not read or taken interest in the comments of ANOTHER, exactly what do you offer as evidence for your strong conviction that he is a fraud and hoaxer?

7. Exactly what do you see as your role on this forum? Do you pretend ( or aspire ) to be our leader? Or our censor? Do opinions contrary to yours ( or your firm's ) have a valid right to appear here? Do we all, collectively have the right to discuss themes and topics that we find mutually interesting? Or do we need some mechanism to assure that they are acceptable to you ( and/or LGB ) before we post?

8. Do you personally believe that it is humanly possible for two rational people to share opinions with one another without one surrendering his intellect and intelligence and becoming the follower of the other?

9. In his last post, ANOTHER promised to post information about the BIS ( Bank of International Settlements ) and its continuing role in matters relating to gold. Do you have any similar information on this subject that you would be willing to share with us in the absence of ANOTHER?

Many here would look forward to your reasoned ( non-personal ) truthful response to these questions. I'm sure that I speak for others when I say that I would like to put ANOTHER's THOUGHTS into perspective ( and to rest if that can be deemed appropiate ) . Your ( and LGB's ) continuing appellations of "fraud" and "hoaxer" make that difficult.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/japan_indo_2.html

Newtron,
I was the one making the negative comments about Donner and the South Voisey's Bay play.
Basically, I thought the newsletter writers involved were outthinking themselves by half.
Many, not necessarily Bishop, thought investors should get into the play because many others would and this would drive up the price. This was playing the greater fool theory, which has been mentioned on Kitco today already.
Trouble was, those looking for the greater fools became the greater fools. After those looking for a quick buck, there were no more fools coming into the arena. So the quick buck lookers are stuck with the paper.
Now Bishop goes by a theory that once the drills have struck metal on a particular property, the likelihood they will do so again dramatically improve. This is a good theory, but it doesn't always work.
As soon as the drills began turning last Tuesday, the stocks began dropping. Today, Donner apologized for having a "leak" in its information chain.
You see, as the core began coming up, the drillers immediately knew it was not the type of rock they were looking for. Word began getting out immediately and the shares began plummeting.
In Rick Rule's defense, his promotion was probably planned well in advance of the drilling. And there was no way to stop it going forward once it was in motion.
This whole episode is another black eye for the mineral exploration business. Still, in prospecting for gold, silver, nickel, or whatever, the next drill hole can make you rich. Things can turn on a dime and someone can be standing there screaming: "EUREKA!!!"
There will be great deposits found this year; but it looks like South Voisey's Bay won't be the place.

I'm sticking with my Global Mineral & Chemical ( GCO.Alberta ) . It's only C$.13 and has no where to go but up, IMO.

The Preacher

Studio. called that number 15 minutes ago and I get a recorded
woman's voice with crude oil prices for the 19th. It had not "flipped" over when I checked, but prices for OK Sweet were in 10.50 range.
Gawd, she was hard to understand though; she had a reel furren
accent; d'ya think she might be an OKEE ?

and could you please expand on the whole "human locust theory?"
- c

Disgruntled miners expand protests, block roads

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Strikes over unpaid wages broke out across Russia on Tuesday, with coal miners, scientists and other workers blocking major railways and highways.

Governors of the country's 20 mining regions discussed the wage arrears with Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov in Moscow, while miners from the northern Vorkuta and Inta areas threatened to bring their protest to the capital next month.

As of Tuesday, the government owed coal miners the equivalent of $1.45 billion US, Nemtsov told the ITAR-Tass news agency.

When I looked at the chart and compared it to other AU mining and exploration companies, Donner went out for a quick gain in the last few months. Most of the other companies had a quick rise in the Jan - Feb time and have either retraced slightly or have been flatlined for the last couple of months.

For what it's worth, maybe Donner is suffering from high expectations of an upward move in the POG and then it stalled out. With a POG retracement down from 311+ to 298, it's no wonder that AU stocks are taking a little bit of a beating. But Donner made a pretty impressive gain and now it has to give back some profits until AU goes back up again.

Another thing - if people with Donner are getting cold feet and dumping it ( like the kind of talk we're hearing here on Kitco ) then no wonder it's dropping.

Disgruntled miners expand protests, block roads
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Russia-Strikes.html

Thank you........if you would have stayed on the line a little longer with that gal you could have got quotes for alfalfa hay and beef jerky......HOWDAAAY! Pard.

now ?

Hackers told Senate hearings they could quickly disable the Internet and eavesdrop on law
enforcement and most other computers. A hacker known as ''Mudge'' told Senator John Glenn that
he and his friends could access the computers of the Federal Reserve System and transfer money
from it.

Jerky is up 125% in the last month due to Y2K concerns here in Oklahoma....fortunately for me, though, our welfare dept. doesn't have computers. So I will be able to get my allotment.

stockpile ?

oklahoma.

@ Donald; liked the website for BIS. very interesting.

Platinum down 13.xx, gold down whatever--
Russian miners are in the streets....
didn't Russia mine platinum? gold?
I think it is magical the way paper can subsitute for
the PMs. A really new world order. {:- (

Canada to pursue it's own Cuban agenda --Chretien

And most important, the prime minister said, it's far from clear whether it redresses Canada's chief objection: the American attempt to apply its laws to citizens of other countries.

"We have to see the evolution of that," Chretien said after a private audience with Pope John Paul.

"It's not like in Canada where when the prime minister says 'I will do something,' generally speaking he can do it."
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.---AM-Chretien.html

Chretien "IS" the law in Canada. He has got that much right.

55 gallon plastic drums which were used for conc. juice or other food are ideal for storing water. They are usually available as misc. in the paper or by driving down alleys different places. I paid $12 for mine. I've used them for years, no problem at all. I use an old sport yak ( boat ) to catch rain water, it makes better expresso than cloronated water. Anything will do as long as it doesn't taint the water, but you have to be careful since a lot of things do.

Avalon-- I like that old saying " A word to the wise is sufficient". I've benefited from advice so much I'd be loath to under rate it.

A Mayan priest surfaced last November warning of the coming of an end of the Mayan calendar about 2010. He said the events would be prefaced by a lot of smoke and haze. He was obviously a simple and honest man with no agenda. Anyone interested I can elucidate somewhat, or maybe somebody else knows more?

You know, Jerky does not store worth a damn, 'cause you eat it all up...whenever you get it. And I do think muchly better when I'm a chewin'. Don't you? chew a little, and think a little...chew a little, and then think a little more...easy does it, now......... ( this concludes the okie jerky report )

Have a look at this XAU chart. Now lay your ruler along the three bottoms. Nice straight line, huh?! Looks like a nice place for a turnaround. If you slide your s.t.p.ruler up a bit, you can connect the highs--and what do we have?? A nice parallel UPtrend channel--ala D.J..
Strange how these nice symmetrical/parallel channels often work. Could it be that they are just a reflection of the human behaviour that drives a market? That's all a chart is, after all. Just a mirror of our market actions.

There is no guarantee that the XAU is going to go up from here, but if you do buy gold shares here you have got a very close point for a stop loss just below the line. We are now sitting on the uptrend? line. Good place to get in? Cheers, N.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^xau&d=b

I just heard again from a futures trader who has been talking my ear off for the last year or so about Klintons immoral & treasonous activities, the biblical prophecies and more recently Y2K and Pan-Asian meltdowns. I asked him if he has his truck yet and whether he has it filled with supplies. He doesnt. Reason: nothing is going to happen till late next year. All the signs have not yet come to pass. The last Pope has not yet succeeded to the papalcy. The Temple has not yet been rebuilt. The 11 or 13 of the Roman Empire have not yet reunited. Yada Yada Yada.
I am convinced he wont get ready until he has seen the last sign in the heavens or whatever. And then there are others who figure they will be raptured - so they have nothing to worry about either. I give up trying to convince these idiots. Im wasting my breath. Better to concentrate on saving me and mine - and passing along info and ideas who are listening and taking precautionary action for the FALL of 99. Sounds like a book - or maybe a movie. Too close to reality to sell though - but then again one could make lots of GOLD of these frightened deer caught in the headlights. Saviors will sprout from every burning bush.

RJ:

Please feel free to place my post of 18:14 in your "on hold" file. The OTHER site is not available now but from comments here it is "not as before".

Yes?

Just interviewed on Phoenix radio projected a continuing strong BULL market and expects gold to move up with the mkt both going to numbers not currently discussed. The Wollenchuck report recognized as a top timer. No time line was discussed.

Wendy buys one million shares at 15 cents, ( PRIVATE PLACEMENT ) very interesting.
Rumor has it they are buying an American company. ( RUMOR )
Sanoma has 4 million in the till, so why ( PRIVATE PLACEMENT )
IN theory your math is correct, in practice wrong.
Sanoma Resources closed up today 7 cents...volume 187.400 shares...value $49.229
Wendy hasn't made her $145.000 yet but she will.
I just love that Vancouver exchange, like Willy Sutton said, thats where the money is.

I've given up at work trying to spread the word. Between Gold and Y2K, they already think I'm a little nutty ( can't see why they'd think that! ) . There are a few there who are believers, but then, they think Aliens control the Government. I know how Cassandra must have felt. She was this seeress in Troy who foretold of the city being littered with used Trojans, but nobody believed her.

I wonder how many weapon systems the U.S. and the Europeans have sold to second and third world countries over the years that have Y2K problems. Could these countries have an incentive to use these weapon systems prior to 1-1-2000 before they become obsolete?

Yes, the VSE can be very lucrative.
BTW, the purpose of the private placement, as I wrote last week, is so the company insiders can load up on cheap stock. In an exploration company, someone must have an incentive to make a success of the company. If no one person or group of persons stands to make a fortune off success, then noone has the incentive to try to make a go of it.

The Preacher

Sure, everybody has right to deliver the message,
RJ or Another. The only problem that some people,
whom I would call "straight forward" business people,
like RJ, for example, do not like waste of time.
It makes them angry, naturally angry. I personally prefer
to deal with "straight forward" business people, not
storytellers.

Another is an American playing foreigner. It's
silly and waste of time. That's why you see all
these emotions...It's not personal emotions, it's
more business. You got to understant it...

population of those of a certain mindset or intelligence. I've been studying this thing for quite some time, I find it interesting how well versed those at this site are. There is of coarse the factor of POG hopes for us, which I'm sure influence the interest/discussion, but lately I've noticed the topic of conversation trending more toward the survivalist issues. The volume of conversation on the subject also seems to be greater.
As others have commented, Y2K is not the economy's first big problem to overcome, the herd's fear in late 99 ( 1999 that is ) will have a profound impact on the world's economy. It's simple, if E-money evaporates for even a short time, confidence in the economy will pop. Gold and cash will reign.
For those of you who are'nt aware of them, there are a couple of good sites on the topic I watch;
the first is www.yourdon.com Ed Yourdon is one of the authors of TIMEBOMB 2000 , an excellent book on the effects and causes of the bug. Dr. Yourdon is a relatively conservative viewpoint, he explores alot of concievable ramifications but seems to take a wait and see approach as to how bad it'll really be.
The second is www.garynorth.com this site is a bit more apocolyptic ( an adjective not a judgement ) and is huge. Ths site is the most comprehensive and widereaching I've founde. You can get lost in this thing for days.
Another very interesting place to look is ITAA's YEAR 2000 OUTLOOK, e-mail adress is y2koutlook@aol.com. I personally get this weekly report via a third party, so I don't really know how to get in direct contact with them. I noticed it's copyrighted so I can't post it here ( although I'd certainly like to ) Anyway this outfit publishes a weekly newsletter that mostly deals with the Fed Gov's activity on the issue. There's no doubt that the Fed Gov is becoming alarmed.
One last thing, my brother is a major at the Army's Ground Intelligence Center involved in computer systems that help verify
international arms control treaties. He graduated from USMA and has since gotten his Masters degree in Computer Science ( He's the "Good Son" ) . He and I talk often about the Bug. He's planning to liquidate all assets by 10-99 and have 3 mos. food stored.
i, being the extremeist of the family, am planning for a year minimum. I got a sweet deal on a 1700 gal. propane tankset, I've started accumulating kerosene, ammo, pm s, tobacco, containers, canning jars, etc., basically the stuff with a very long or unlimited shelflife. I plan to wait till the prices start to rise to sock food, gasoline, medicals and booze. Why wait on booze? I figger most folks will be in a frenzy to get the food and gas, and demand for booze will drop, along with the price. May make an excellent barter item.

I forgot to mention that my friend who wont worry till the Fall of 99 is convinced that our military is prepared for Y2K. He has connections who have connections who assure him they are wont be affected - they have stockpiles of low tech weaponry. I ask him if he had gotten the extra 30-30 ammo he has been talking about getting. No - not yet. I ask him when he will convert his GOLD and grain futures into physical in his truck. His answer: not until it all starts to unravel - hell know when. In the meantime he will continue heavily trading in high tech stocks. Maybe he knows something we dont.

Here's a nice chart of the S&P showing its exponential rise
over ten years, perfectly fitting the "chaos clamshell", and
pointing to a possible termination in July-October.
http://www.sni.net/hans/stocks.html

Nick: I notice that graph uses a log scale. You do realise the plastic ruler trend-line theory only works reliably if you use a ruler that also has a log scale?

Since he has no computer to be online with. I share with him excerpts of the postings here. You can lead a horse to water ....

Funny how five years ago everyone thought it would be the religious who would run to the hills as Y2K approacheth. Turns out it's the godless geeks that are carriers of this millenium's apocalyptic vision. How long will it be before Y2K the movie makes its appearance ? When that happens, people will believe in it. Cause they saw it at the movies.

At the rate things are going, by the time it gets here most everyone will have a stock of food.

I thought the most rational post about Y2K was the one Allen put up showing that the cash withdrawals from the banking system would destroy it. I think they won't. Just make it more bankrupt. That will mean yet another Reorganization in Bankruptcy. Perhaps there should be focus on having The Bank disappear in the reorganization.

I think these foreign terrorist scenarios are the products of imaginations that are seriously infected with propaganda. How are they gonna get here if the planes aren't flying ? The unassimilated to the welfare state, independent minded American citizen is who the government officials are talking about when they say "terrorist."

The chance of a Mexican migrant invasion seems remote to me, too. They only come across the border for work. If there is no work here, they have no reason to leave the village. I think the real threat is from the Eh speakers invading in search of warmth when the Hydos go on the fritz again.

in all locations.

If we don't know what weapons systems will be working, they don't either.
If DOD just keeps saying No Problem, the bluff is as good as having everything up and running. It's Mutual Assured Uncertainty.

...I always get a kick from S & P credit downgrades of gold companies.
I find them pretty amusing. They represent the "ultimate" market manipulation...although investment analysts' upgrades and downgrades are certainly of equivalent stature.

My favorite S & P downgrade occurred a few years ago when HEMLO claimed to have "structural" problems with its major mine in Canada. Immediately, the stock fell about 15%...then shortly thereafter, BATTLE MOUNTAIN came along and purchased HEMLO at a premium of some 30%.

BMG received its S & P downgrade last Friday owing primarily to the "weak" price of gold. Personally, I must salute S & P for their unusually keen perceptions and good timing in discovering the weakness in the POG. I mean, I am so sadly obtuse that, all this time, I thought the price was going through the roof!! ( Yuk, yuk, yuk ) .

Anyway, the stock has taken a nice dump over the last two days and I would imagine there are several happy institutions who picked the stuff up on the downswing.

I would expect that a takeover will be announced by...3 more words.

( But, hey, what do I know? Just ask LGB and he'll tell you what a dimwit I really am! )

Thanks.

F*

Gentlemen, we are travelling like crazy this month and I am about to set off for lovely Nevada.

As I am making various preparations, I do not have much time to attend to my Kitco habit.

I hope to post again as soon as possible.

Thanks.

F*

Indonesia's economy faces prolonged depression - analysts
Followup-To: biz.clarinet.sample


JAKARTA, Indonesiam ( Reuters ) - Indonesia's political future
remains in doubt but analysts say its economic prospects are
grimly clear -- it is toppling into prolonged depression after
riots ravaged an economy already racked by financial crisis.
The violence that laid waste to areas of Jakarta last week
has paralyzed much business and banking activity, dealt a
shattering blow to investor confidence and left the economic
assumptions underlying the International Monetary Fund's more
than $40 billion economic rescue package in ruins.
The World Bank postponed discussions on $1.2 billion of new
loans on Monday, and an IMF source told Reuters the delay in
funding would jeopardize the IMF-led rescue plan.
Negotiations on rescheduling $80 billion in private debt have
also been thrown into doubt.
Some analysts believe the country may even be facing the
prospect of sovereign default.
U.S. rating agency Standard & Poor's said Friday it
downgraded its rating on Indonesia's $400 million Yankee bond due
2006 and its long-term foreign currency credit rating to
triple-'C'-plus from single-'B'-minus. A triple-'C' rating
indicates a perceived possibility of default.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980519/swiss_gold_1.html

U.S. House Republicans consider China funds panel
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - House Republicans said
Tuesday they expect to appoint a special panel to investigate
whether political donations influenced President Clinton's
decision to allow exports of satellite technology to China.
House Speaker Newt Gingrich met with other members of the
Republican leadership to discuss setting up a select committee,
possibly led by Rep. Chris Cox of California, chairman of the
Republican Policy Conference, to look into the issue.
He said an announcement could be made later Tuesday.
``The House of Representatives is going to recommend an
investigatory body, probably led by Chris Cox, to look into
these charges,'' Rep. Jennifer Dunn of Washington told
reporters.
Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott has said he also would
seek an investigation of illegal contributions to Clinton's
Democratic Party -- later returned because of their suspect
source -- that allegedly came from the Chinese military.
The White House has denied any connection between the
reported contributions and its decision to allow U.S. companies
to launch their satellites on Chinese rockets.



My opinion is that this clinton guy is the most dangerous person to world stability that the yanks have had in power since roosevelt...yet he is as popular as ever....?
The sooner he is run out of office the better for the world. I also have serious concerns about his close ties with Oxford buddy Blair and those weird handshakes....Oxford is the breeding ground for these vermin.

KIWI,
Thanks for the indonesia news,Its very helpful to me!
See you!
rgds,
jin

PJR - A straight line on a log chart indicates a fixed % change over time. We live in a % world. Nick is right to choose a log chart.

India Dismisses Chinese Charge
NEW DELHI ( Reuters ) - India reacted dismissively Tuesday to
Chinese claims that New Delhi was the aggressor in their 1962
war. China's official media took exception to statements by
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who said China
invaded India in 1962. The Xinhua news agency accused India of
making ``lame excuses'' by claiming that it tested five nuclear
weapons because China posed a threat to its security. Xinhua
said it was India's expansionist policies following independence
that led to a ``large-scale war of invasion against China.''
Pramod Mahajan, Vajpayee's political advisor, reacted
dismissively. Beijing's allegations, he said, were ``like a
thief scolding a policeman.''

Pakistan: India Threatens Peace
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan ( Reuters ) - Pakistan accused India
Tuesday of threatening peace in South Asia and vowed to deliver
a ``swift and telling reply'' to any hostile action by its rival.
``While the ominous boom of the Indian nuclear tests has not yet
died down,'' a Foreign Ministry spokesman said, ``India is
already threatening to destroy peace and security in the
region.'' He was responding to Indian Home Minister Lal Krishna
Advani, who said Pakistan was likely to step up hostile
activities - especially in Kashmir - following India's nuclear
tests. The spokesman called Advani's remarks ``a naked assertion
of Indian hostile intentions toward Pakistan and...hegemonistic
policies now backed by overt nuclear weaponization.''

Yeltsin Impeachment Bid Studied
MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia's shaky financial markets calmed
Tuesday after the central bank raised interest rates to 18-month
highs to bolster the ruble and restore investor confidence. But
Russian President Boris Yeltsin faced new political uncertainty
as influential Communists said they planned to try to begin
impeachment proceedings against him in parliament on Wednesday
in connection with protests by desperate coal miners who have
not been paid for months. The Communist-led parliament also
dealt Yeltsin a diplomatic blow when the State Duma decided not
to debate the 1993 START-2 nuclear arms reduction treaty until
September.

China Claims Revive Scandal
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - An explosive allegation that
President Clinton's Democratic Party received campaign money
from the Chinese military has breathed new life into a scandal
that had seemed ready to fade away. Republicans led by Senate
Majority Leader Trent Lott and House Speaker Newt Gingrich were
quick to pounce on the report in The New York Times that former
Democratic Party donor Johnnie Chung had told Justice Department
investigators that in 1996 he gave to the Democrats $100,000 he
received from China's People's Liberation Army. Lott and
Gingrich both vowed to set up new investigations of the
allegation by Chung, who is cooperating with a Justice
Department criminal probe of Democratic fund raising.

Yet Another Buying Opportunity?



By Martin A. Armstrong

The collapse in silver is underway with the metal making new record lows for the year. The issue of fundamental hype about shortages is now seriously in question. Just how long can the hidden stockpiles of silver remain off-warrant in London will be the final deciding factor in the silver market.

The latest threat to silver is not coming from lawsuits or so called manipulation and leasing. The real threat to this market will be the CFTC. Recently, the fines leveled against Sumitomo in the copper case were $150 million with $25 million being set aside for investors who may have been harmed. The CFTC has drawn serious blood with a fine that will help fund the agency for some time to come. Considering the fact that copper is far less of a publicly traded market than silver, gives some concern that a CFTC investigation might result in a fine far in excess of a mere $150 million.

We are entering a new age of government activism for profit. The States banned together to attack the tobacco industry and walked away with billions. Now they are attacking Microsoft with an eye toward big fines once again. A third such combined attack is starting to be organized by Pennsylvania to sue the gun manufacturers for the crimes perpetrated by people with guns. The seriousness of these suits has yet to be considered by the marketplace. But in our opinion, historians will look back to these days and refer to them as the Warfare of Public Vs Private.

Despite the passions behind silver, we see that the threat of the Sumitomo victory for the CFTC will now turn the heat up on the silver hoarders. This new found pressure would insure that it might be suicide to attempt a long position that could land you in the middle of an investigation. This of course would not apply to normal trading activity in silver on the COMEX. The risks will apply to those who take delivery and try to hold silver off the market in UNREPORTED facilities for the purpose of driving its price higher. Anyone engaged in such activity might find trying to explain his or her actions far more difficult economically speaking the larger the position being hoarded.

Another victim in the case may be the exchange itself. Since the exchange is fighting for the right to be self-regulated at the expense of the CFTC, the statement made by the NYMEX that they saw no justification to the class action lawsuit, which was then followed by the revalations about London, did not help the image of the exchange at all. The CFTC has put forth a set of new regulations recently in their attempt to move into the off-exchange derivative markets. While these new regulations are on the table for comment at this time, we fear that the off-exchange markets may also come under attack and the Copper and Silver issues could be used as evidence in the pursuit of expanding the role of the CFTC.

From a technical perspective, the break below $5.57 on a weekly closing basis has now focused our computer models on the next target objective of $4.69. The market has also accomplished a weekly closing ABOVE the 50:1 level on the silver/gold ratio. This too has now placed the burden on silver suggesting that we should see a rise back to where the ratio stood before the recent rally. This implies a move back to 65:1 in general terms. ( 4.69 silver vs. 300 gold )

Long-term models imply that at the very least a drop in silver back to test the $5 level is in order. A monthly closing beneath this area will confirm that a drop back to the mid-$4 range is inevitable perhaps even as early as July. Our concerns remain that the sharp February spike high in silver has caused a sharp spike increase in supply both from third world nations as well as producers. The new increase in supply, that the fundamental promoters are ignoring in their propaganda, may in fact be the cause behind a potential decline for silver into next year while gold holds of rises.

Even those who are cheering for the Euro to displace the dollar, which in turn would cause a precious metal rally, are missing the point. They seem to cheer for anything that will lead to economic chaos just so they can achieve a bull market in metals. The likelihood of an Euro success story is not very strong. There is no doubt that the Euro will promote massive social unrest in Europe in regions such as Germany and France when the militant unions realize that they will be on the short-end of the benefactors insofar as jobs are concerned. The common agricultural policy will remove the subsidies for farmers in Europe, which we cant imagine, will go over warmly in France. It may not be the success of the Euro that sparks a gold bull market but its very failure that inspires a gold rally as a hedge against European uncertainty as has been the case in Asia.

We have warned time and again. While history repeats, it never plays out in the same identical manner twice. So while everyone is passionately involved with silver because it will outperform gold, you better listen to the market itself. The next great bull market will find new record highs in gold long before silver gets off the ground. We still see this ratio taking out the double top at 100:1 by 2003 with a target objective of at least 140:1. If silver penetrates the $4.50 level on a monthly closing basis, then you will see $3.25 before you will ever see $10.

For now, only a weekly closing back ABOVE $5.50 will imply a temporary low has been achieved. The longer silver remains BELOW the $5.50 zone, the higher the probability that we will see a test of $5 ultimately followed by another collapse. A monthly closing BELOW $5 will confirm that the long-term bear market in silver is far from over.

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/time/magazine/1998/dom/980525/asias_crisis.the_banks_n8.html

Great name. Who is he??

This same Armstrong was last summer calling for 3.50 silver and then a rally to 12 -$18. We all know that silver proceeded from the 4.75 back then to go up 50% and not down by 1/3. Where is Armstrong's credibility? He's probably short the metal anyway. Silver may go up or down from here, but Armstrong already has eaten enough words to fill a box of Alphabits. I don't put much faith into his sorry predictions. --AG

Me too, me too, I know how you feel, slow dance on the killing ground, I left 30k on the table in the last 2 years following ADRIAN DAY'S recos.
ANOTHER snake oil salesman who hasn,t got a clue, what's up and what is descending into hell. Thanks to many of the guys here at KITCO,I got out 8 month ago, cut my losses, started to concentrate on my buiseness again made all my money back plus, but it still pisses me off listening to A-holes who think they're in the know. I've learned my lesson and now it's back to real values, there is still a PM bug in me, how to satify him? I'm buying him some physical to keep him happy, and lets make some use this stuff in the meantime! Real value or not, my wife fell in love with a table lamp last year she had to have, o.k fivehundred plus, 3 month later the lamp fell over busting the hand-blown ( no BC jokes please ) globe
and then decided she did not like the lamp after all, now residing in the basement awaiting it's fate at the next garage sale. My point I,m buying 100oz.silver doorstoppers for every door in the house. Value? maybe? usefull you bet,with a hammer beside it, the PM bug in me can hit it, shape it, control it, and play with it, should I ever tire of this game let's see what it will fetch at the next garage sale in 2003.
I've learned to follow in the footsteps of giants "RJ" "EB" "LGB" mostly right sometimes wrong, don't wear the PM'S around your neck, keep it at arms lenght, preferably at your feet!

Thanx. I don't lnow why these keep disappearing from favotites-maybe eyes are messed up, Charlie

If USAGold want to tie themselves to ANOTHER's wagon let them. All his prediction have been incorrect. I can't believe people take him/her seriously.

Banker's secretary gets prison for embezzlement
Bebe Fazia Laljie, 45, of Queens, New York, was also ordered to pay $843,757 in restitution

Laljie has been in prison since Oct. 14, 1997, when she was convicted of carrying out the embezzlement scheme. A Manhattan federal jury found her guilty of 33 counts of mail fraud and 14 counts of bank fraud.

The government would not disclose the name of the banker, who is now retired. Salomon is now part of Salomon Smith Barney, which is a unit of Travelers Group .

http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/BROKERS-EMBEZZLEMENT.html

$US 5.17 an ounce. Hmm, silver tanking. My sympathies to all those who bought at $US 7.50.

If it gets to $US 4.50; I'll buy some. 'Til then..........

Live Long and Prosper.

Can't access the Daily Market Report Page. Anyone else having the same problem??

and silver will go below $4.00 again. Ah yeah. What we need is a bacteria that kills anything with a -crat...Yeah, and MA is smarter and more honorable than WB...NOT!

Comment from a friend in Geneva is attached, english not his first language but very reliable source. Anyone know what is happening? Maybe you've seen Geneva on TV since the World Trade Organization holds a big meeting here. And even Bill's come here! What a mess in our town since this meeting started. Police is so afraid of attacks that they've closed many roads and it's almost impossible to go across the town with a car because the traffic is at a crawl on many places. And helicopters are constantly flying around in the sky in the area of the UNO building, which is not far from my flat. On Saturday night there has been a big demonstration against WTO and rioters have made for more than one million of Swiss francs damage. When I went to my bank last Monday, all the shop windows were broken. Most of the inhabitants of Geneva will be glad when this meeting will end. Well it's a sign about our society. These WTO guys think the earth is like a big village but things aren't so simple. We are not only here to consume, make profit and compete. I guess they will be surprised in a near future.
And strangely during all these days there hasn't been a cloud in the sky !

The post at 20:12 is probably the most important one I have ever found.

Call him at 800-511-0781, I think out of Detroit

many of our other perceived financial crises. Good one . Oh the Ottawa Citizen reported that the PM funds have been the best investment for the last two months running. That is good news. Unfortunately I have been in for a 30% loss and I am only back to about a 17% loss.

I previously posted some S&P500 projections. My model is dynamic in that retesting and recalculation plus new data points all result in a changing projection. The projections can only be approximate. This is by way of a warning that the models can be incorrect by a matter of weeks and a few points one way or the other ( sometimes worse ) . If you compare the original stuff I posted with the present projections ( below ) you can see slight differences. The original projections showed a peak a little earlier and an earlier decline.

I am posting the latest projection on the S&P500 both on a weekly and daily basis.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/spwk.gif
http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/spda.gif

With some reservations, I am also posting a partial projection on a daily basis for Homestake Mines which I will only temporarily make available. This projection I only show a short while into the future. Since I trade Homestake, it is not to my advantage to make this information widely available, however I sort of guess that most of you will not agree with the chart so I am not likely to have much competition from Kitcoites.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/hmda.gif

Yes, same here. I'm interested in seeing what "ANOTHER" has to say. He was never antagonistic to anyone here. It bothers me that because his phrasing was different, and he spoke in metaphors, people assume he might be a fraud. Any one of us could be a fraud in cyberspace, not just ANOTHER. Perhaps he got too much attention and some "OTHERS" didn't like that.

I've posted some of Armstrong's comments here and they always generate a vitriolic response. His is just another opinion just like the many that we see here. I don't get it. One thing that he brings up that I have not seen discussed here is the possibily of Summamato ( spelling ? ) style law suits that might give pause to the longs who are taking silver out of circulation. This is a dimension to the fundamentals well worth discussion .

Then what the hell does a bear look like?? Gold at $10/oz?

Thanx. Is he a goldbug/goldbear or just a run of the mill financial guy?

The only thing that makes me feel good, is that I was alot farther down on Jan 1........

May 19, 1998
Filed at 6:09 p.m. EDT
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The dollar hit its highest level against the yen since
August 1991 on Tuesday as a pledge by Indonesia's president to step down
failed to calm traders' worries about that country's political instability and its
effects on Asia's economies.

The U.S. currency also slipped against the mark in a quiet, nervous day of
trading.

Traders remained focused on the turmoil in Indonesia, where President
Suharto said he would step down under pressure from riots and protests,
but failed to offer a departure date. While Suharto promised to hold
elections and not seek re-election, traders were uncertain if he would
actually leave and, if he did, who would replace him.

Indonesia's troubles, stemming from the country's economic crisis, have
hammered the yen by heightening concerns about the already battered
economies in Japan and throughout Asia. The dollar is also considered a
safe haven during times of political unrest, aiding the U.S. currency's gains
vs. its Japanese counterpart.

In late New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 136.44 yen, up from
136.25 late Monday, to mark its highest point since Aug. 30, 1991.

The dollar also was changing hands at 1.7834 marks, down from 1.7850.

Dollar-mark dealings were light as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's
afternoon announcement on the direction of short-term interest rates. The
Fed's decision to hold rates steady was widely expected and had little effect
on trading after its announcement.

Other late dollar rates in New York, compared with late Monday: 1.4801
Swiss francs, down from 1.4867; 5.9800 French francs, down from
5.9835; 1,758.75 Italian lire, down from 1,760.54; and 1.4492 Canadian
dollars, up from 1.4478.

The British pound was quoted at $1.6213, down from $1.6215.

and interview was conducted by an active timer/trader whom I respect. He seems most open to calls on the 800#. Pls report your thoughts after a call. He does talk very pro gold as a position to be held by all.

I'm just wondering if the banks will actually wait until the losses are insurmountable and then perpetuate a stock market crash and sweep all the mess into the same basket....as they don't have to report their derivative exposure they can hide it indefinitely ( like the Japanese banks have done ) and keep it as the "uncle in the family that nobody talks about."....i wouldn't want to be holding bank stocks right now.

The Secret Service "maintained that disclosure of these observations could potentially lead present and future presidents to distance themselves from Secret Service personnel while engaging in illegal or embarrassing acts," the filings say.

To all:

I'm pulling out all the cliches tonight. This is the moment of truth; it's now or never; never has one item done so little for so many. it's make it or break it; it's SHOWTIME!

The XAU has fallen to its trendline, in place from the January bottom. The close today was 81.06; the 100-day MA is at 78.67. The 200-day is at 83.16.
The stochastics on the weekly chart, while in mid-range, are pointed down. The XAU needs a dramatic reversal of direction to preserve the four-month uptrend.

It will get it only if it gets help from gold itself. Gold closed at 298.65. Its 100-day MA is at 298.39. The 200-day is at 305.07. The trendline for gold is a little further away, down at the 296 level.
The big question is: Was last week's reversal and Friday breakout a two-day wonder, or was it the beginning of something big? Gold is still within its uptrend, so I'm staying with it

Barrick looks better than gold or the XAU. It remains above both of its MAs. ABX closed at 21.13. The 200-day MA is at 20.43.
OTOH, its rise has been so steep this year, the price has broken out of its uptrend line.

We could use some help from the U.S. dollar index. It has retraced about 50% of its decline from the 102-plus high. The weekly stochastics look like it is about to roll over to the downside again. Tomorrow will be fine with me.

Silver must be nearing a bottom. The daily stochastics are below 10, and the weeklies are below 20..

I've got a great idea. Why don't silver, gold, and the XAU start going up and the dollar index start going down? That will help a lot.

I feel like a man waiting for his execution and hoping for a reprieve from the governor at the same time. Sorry to be so melodramatic. I think tomorrow is a very big day.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

Silver still not here yet, that I bought last week, and down a buck an oz.

Bill Buckler contends that US POG will rise after OZ$ POG rise. The OZ POG has risen about $12 in the last week. Will US POG rise soon??

I think POG is more likely to tank than go up.

We shall see.

Still awaiting ECB announcement

If you have access to AOL, type in "NBR" at "Keyword" and search the Market Monitor transcripts at the NBR site there. Wollenchuk was interviewed in December. In two previous interviews he talked about gold, but you'd have to go back a few months. He sees an 11000 Dow soon. --AG

Foreign Currencies, like the Yen Dm and Sf.
They are about to turn up, I believe, and that means the $ down
and the PMs change direction. Silver is now in the range where it
had it's approx 2/3 correction.
We do live in interesting times, NO?

Two events are now closing on the "banking system". The first is elimination of bank liquidity from losses on derivatives contracts. The second is elimination of bank liquidity from cash withdrawals by Y2K nervous depositors. Either event would be enough alone to render the banking system illiquid. Together they are Banking Armageddon.

Now as the United States government is legally obligated to guarantee the liquidity of this farce called a banking system we are in for scenes from the asylum. The ultimate guarantor of the banking system is the taxpayer. New Debt will be created to give New Liquidity to the banking system and New Taxation will be levied to pay the New Interest on the New Debt. It is either that or Sovereign Default. These are the kind of choices that cause changes in government. People may begin asking in a big way if the federal government was established for the benefit of parasitic usurers in banks and their cohorts, the attorneys.

Somewhere in all this the $US must devalue.

Goldbugs should take heart that though they have had notional losses, they still hold the gold and it is not, nor ever will be, in default.

Preacher, if ever a man had the gift for words you have it. Being a fairly heavy ivestor in gold funds ( currently under water ) your words bring me solace and comfort. I know in my heart of hearts that Gold's day will come someday. I fear it may not come in my lifetime. The long and the short of it is you are right. It is tomorrow or all bets are off. At each stage of the play being played out by the baby boomers I have been astounded at how long a particular stage of the play lasts. I remember back in the 70's when real estate was going up and up and up and up and everyone kept saying it couldn't keep on going up forever. It eventually stopped. Same now for the stock market. It goes up and up and up and up and up. The day will come when gold does the same. Soon I hope.

WOW....I'm flabbergasted. Donald that was a very illuminating post. Thanks............

Preacher: If tommorrow is to be a big day for gold, I am not optimistic, unless silver gives it a boost. My guess is that Indonesian pandemonium will cancel any bullish effect of not raising short term rates. The Russian situation is rapidly deteriorating, and revolution will be bullish for gold -- but who knows when? All that is clear to me is that B Yeltsin's days are numbered. As someone said, he may be forced out before BC.

As I have said before, I would be very happy to lose money in gold if a true and just world peace could be assured for the millenium. I do not look forward to what may come out of Russia, as the most cultured and ethical have been purged.

the info on the Mayan fellow who was talking about their calendar turnover?

or if you wish you could e-mail it to me at: ross@phm.utoronto.ca

ThanQ at lot!
- Steve

We should start pricing Gold by the Kilo.
$12.000. Sounds far better than $300.

You always blindside these bastards. It looks like by now they would be wise. I guess they are so rattled that they are an accident waiting to happen.

http://msx4.pha.jhu.edu/ssip/Sun/Solar_Lesson2.html
http://www.worldahead.org/brochure/bk14/bk14-toc.htm
http://www.ml.com/woml/forum/millen.htm
http://www.y2kinvestor.com/intro.html
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_11hrg/110497/witness/yardeni.htm
http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html#b3.3
http://www.euy2k.com/

Donald: That is a real bombshell! 10 trillion just in banking currecny derivatives alone? Each time the market twitches significantly, the Black-Scholes static model fails, and a bank currency hedger gets shaken down.

After a few episodes of turmoil, a boatload of banks will be penniless or worse!

This could very well be the scenario that brings the markets tumbling down -- banks being forced to announce massive derviatives losses. I still don't have any idea where that 1 trillion in debt losses went from the Oct 97 event.

Time-Warner, etc. are going to make a killing off this Y2K story. It's entertainment by golly and between now and Y2K they are going to make a buck on it. Government jaws are going to get sore from repeating No Problem.

We should price gold in Australian dollars per kilo. That would be $15,300.

Although its not the end of the week, a lot has been going on, and some of you may find this updated chart helpful in making near term decisions.

Gold - Still holding within the narrow channel. I have shown a possible alternative channel bottom as a dotted line, which includes the January low. I have been favoring this lower line as the real channel bottom, for several reasons. However, as Nick@C pointed out today, XAU has hit the bottom of its nicely defined channel, so maybe gold will not drop down to this lower line, roughly $295. I do expect this channel will widen eventually, but maybe it will happen at the top. :- ) )

Silver - My last channel didn't survive one day. Although this new channel possibility was evident quite some time ago, I just couldn't convince myself that silver could drop this fast, this far. As usual, I should have paid more attention to APH. As you will see, the channel shown in solid lines is determined by using the recent highs as the channel top. This channel agrees with APH's predicted low around 4.90 - 5.00. The dotted line channel is determined by using the recent lows as the channel bottom. The current POS is right at the bottom of this channel right now. The solid line channel seems most likely. ( Not good for me, being long silver, like a dummy ) . Oh well, it should be over soon. If I have the courage, I'll average down.

Platinum - As I said before, PL is defying all logic, and seems to be trending down. I tweaked up my predicted downward-trending channel. This show PL could hit 360-365 in the near term. However, as of now, it is still just barely within the wide upward-trending channel defined previously. But it does not look good. I think PA has seen its highs. If you look at last year, it certainly seems like PA has done its thing. If this is so, it has a long ways to drop, even if it stops at its upward trend line ( around 290 ) . Though PL won't drop at the same rate, it can easily drop to the 360 level. I noticed that Johnson Matthey predicts PL will trade in the range of 370-450 in 1998, so 360 is not far from the bottom of this range. Watch PA. It is the key. I could be 100% wrong.

Palladium - See above. Talk about an unguided missile.

All: Let's not forget that many of these currency hedging derivatives are in SEAsian markets which were wiped out. The winners and the losers are both at risk if the exchanges are penniless, as they might very well be.

Imagine an American bank trying to collect in a South Korean court.

Donald -- do you know how soone these derivatives trades will mature? The banks involved can probably hide losses for a most several months to the next quaterly report, say sometime between July and Sept. Depending on the size of these losses, we could be in for a real banking fiasco.

And every time the markets twitch, more losses accumulate.

OK. It is soooooooooooo oversold right now....I am sticking my my toes in the water. I have allocated a small portion of 'CLAMS' for the trade and am using options.....uh huh. If I lose.....I lose.....BFD. I think we should have a run at it and real soon.

I gotta feel happy about not going in the other day. Something told me not to do so...... ( perhaps I had to 'clear out' some other trades...pulled some plat ) .

APH? is it ready or did we break through some major support. Next stop 4.80ish? All indicators say OVERSOLD. ALL of 'em. We must have a jump from here, NO?

Say it's so and I will follow you blindly.... ( wink thing ) .

away.......to jump off the cliff if ordered to do so........... ( Spudster's famous doppler effect ) .................. ( splat ) .

EB

I also think it is highly likely gold and silver will bottom out at the same time. Maybe tomorrow. Keep your finger on the trigger.

The fuse is lit and I don't know what else to say except thanx. You and Mozel have got them by the gonies.

Yes... I see your Aussie buck is lower than a snakes ass in down under land. I was briefed that you were at a 18 year low.
Perhaps your remark will bring to the attention of the Americans, that at $300. U.S.A. dollars Gold is a lot of $$$$ in another currency.
The U.S.A. dollar is higher than a whores skirt, absolutley no insentitive to a foreign buyer. They not only gamble on the price of gold they have to throw in the gamble of the currency.

already had to go to court in S. Korea to try to collect on derivatives contracts. About a month & a half ago the Financial Post ran an article describing how Citibank and another US bank ( I forget its name ) had large paper profits on currency hedges, but was having difficulties collecting.

- Steve

Hi folks. This is my first post for this chat group since they put in password restrictions.



With gold apparently basing here after a steep selloff from $420, does anyone care to take the view that gold has another downleg to go? I have some gold exposure and would like to increase it but need more info on downside risks ( the upside story is already well-known to all...demand exceeds supply, Euro may have copious gold backing, mines shutting down, extreme bearishness, increasing economic uncertainty, uncoverable gold loans, etc ) .



Any responses appreciated. Many thanks.

Oz Dollar at 12 year low not 18. One ounce of Gold is about $479 Australian at the moment. In July last year it was $430. So the bull is on in Australia.

Will wait and see if it holds. Wish us downunder luck. Asia very hairy at the moment.

First Bunt Cake are dirtyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...the USA is so far in debt it will never get out of it...and I am in gold, silver and platinum and loving every comment that says the metals are not money, and Y2K is nothing.

Indonesia is going to hell in a hand basket and all I hear in America is people bitching about their oh so important stock market. Pathetic.

I am laughing, gulp...it is so sad it is actually funny in a pathetic way, which is making me laugh.

A giant GULP to ya...namaste'

Japan

PROBLEMS

--Infinite

--Deflation

IMF PACKAGE

$0

OUTLOOK

--Colonized by China

POG another downward leg? Who knows IMVHO it is probably going to go down to $280 - 85 again. It all depends on ECB decision. You should wait to see what becomes of that before buying.

Just my opinion. However, I think a recovery will be on in about 6 to 18 months because of mine closures etc.

Good luck

The most optimistic one of ye's is preacher, and he's talking about being executed tomorrow? ( OR maybe he's going to have a trade executed? ) Look at these charts. Do you see how thin the trading is with just a few relatively big buys? I just picked these at random. IMHO

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RANGY&d=1d

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=DROOY&d=1d

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSRIF&d=1d

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=1d

I would say 'I don't care, I'm buying more', but my wife has threatened to have the bathroom retiled and the yard resodded if I do, so I'm having to weigh the extra cost! IMHO

DJ! DJ!

He's our man!

If he can't do it...

NOONE can!

Yahoooooooo! DJ channel master!!

You got me on the plat again........tick-tock, tick-tock....I have lightened my 'load' of the plat too. I am no longer nipple-deep.....I am back to belly-button deep. Am searching, *rabidly*, for any reason to get nipple-deep again. Palladium sure looks toppy but there isn't any to be had and the supply equation is only getting worse......DAILY. At a time when demand is at it's greatest I cannot overlook the fact that Plat is a goooooood alternative for catalyst making, etc. I will stick with NO TOP AS YET....we'll call it NTAY. Uh huh. I mean why would Palladium trade at less than it is now when supplies are not to be found and the future is BLEAK. Sounding like a broken record is not my style but the situation is critical. OHMY ( ! )

away........to the backyard to search for some Palladium

EB

O'tay guys - If this debacle is sailing down the pipe at us, any ideas as to the best place to hide ( other than holding physical PM's ) ? Short money center bank stocks? Short Bonds? These aren't just U.S. problems, but global problems - wouldn't a U.S. devaluation quickly bring down the rest of the world, since the financial markets are all closely linked?

That little message might help some of Americans understand.
Gold is pretty high priced. But you can tell by this forum that many do not understand foreign currency.

I always heard that Australia was the anchor or plug that held the world together. Sit down for a while and see if you feel the land coming loose. Good luck, Charlie

Avast, Matey! Gold has been declared worthless, indeed dangerous to keep, by all the good Kitcoites. But if ye like I'll take yours of ye'r hands and make it into fishing sinkers, fer free. But ye'll have to pay the shipping cost! Hazardous, material, ye' know! ARRGGG!!! Any o' these other pirates would charge you a disposal fee! ( $-^] )

Buff


I've followed Wollanchuck for years. He has been best on stocks & bonds.
I haven't seen anyone better. BUT his stuff on gold has been wrong. He has been consistantly wrong on the gold mrkt for years.

Wolanchucks gold mrkt predictions have been very similar to George Cole's in their accuracy.

Short this or that related to banks and currency. These are all good ideas if you can figure out how to quantify the settlement risk. I mean what good does it do to make a killing on paper if the House that owes is defunct ? Like holding derivatives winnings against a bank in Indonesia.

welcome. hang out for a while and your questions will be answered MANY times over. It looks as though you have a good handle ( pun intended ) on it already.

Take a loooooooong drink of Kitco. She will slake your thirst temporarily and then you will thirst even greater than before........uh huh ( ? ) . You will have to like tequila.....gold, of course..... :-!

away......from work.

EB

While the fall of the Australian dollar is apprpriate at this time, it would appear to be oversold. The irrationality of the markets has equated Australia with Asia. We do not have Asia's problems.

The Reserve Bank has already intervened twice in the money markets to prop up the dollar. Once in January when it got to 63.2 US cents and yesterday when it fell to 61.7 US cents.

Its great for me; it means my gold is going up. Bad for those who are repaying foreign debts in US dollars.

Three cheers for irrational markets!!

EB - The Silver Misery of the last week should end tonight or tomorrow. Tonight's low in July Silver ( 5.12 ) is within 10 cents of the projected low and 2 cents form the projected low range. I'm looking to offset my short silver's ( from 6.00 ) tonight or sometime tomorrow and go long. Even if 5.00 doesn't turn out to be the final low of this leg down it's a low risk entry point leading to a good trading rally allowing for break even stops in case of a failure. This silver bottom will not necessarily help out gold.

FWIW: I have no idea, how I obtained this six ( 6 ) page pamphlet, was in a book. I think this information, suggests that within the bowels of corporate USofA/Canada, things are not that great.

Gold price can, and will be affected, by the bowel movements of Corporate USofA/Canada, as push and shove exists, with the corporate world's underling's ( suit's )

"The untold story of corporate America that no one ever hears until it's too late!"

"After seven years of having a "good job" reality started to set in. I looked around and saw older people in the company who were not having the kind of lives that I thought would naturally come. I began to understand that all the things I thought would allow me to be a success in life ( education, dedication, loyalty, expertise, a good job with a good company ) were "false and misleading" "

" I went to college, got an MBA, went to work for a prestigious Fortune 500 company, yet I was broke. I lived paycheck to paycheck, unable to admit that something was wrong--but my wife could. ....In order to make ends meet my wife had to work. ...if my job was so good, why did she have to work? I detested having to put our children in a day care center, but there was no alternative."

" Almost all corporations give an annual review that includes a pay raise, usually 7-8 percent "maximum". All told, 95 percent of all Americans get only a cost of "living" increase. My loyalty, experience and dedication was "inconsequential". I could not admit that I had "never" had a pat raise. It appalled me to understand that I was making the "same" income ( inflation-wise ) as I did the same day I started. It was "obvious" what my woth was. The company paid the "job", not the "person". What has been your annual percentage increase? Has it been only 7-9 percent?"

" I thought for a while that I was the "fair-haired boy" I thought "Not me, other people; but not me." I've awakened to reality..."everyone" will someday have to face the inevitable. The corporation will someday disappoint you, forget you. To think otherwise is "professional naivete" You've seen other people get shafted..when will "your" turn come?"

"When I think back to when I was old enough to consider my future, I remember thinking only about going to work for a corporation. My parents had drilled into my head to "get a good job, with benefits, be secure, work for a big company, get security in your life" My college instructors in graduate school prepped me in my courses to work for a good company. I knew no other alternatives. I was "programmed" for mediocrity. Every publication I was interested in reading ( Fortune, Forbes, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal ) wrote of the greatness of the corporate world."

"Have you ever thought that there had to be a better way?"

" You give your company your body, mind and heart. When you are in your 20s and 30s, you "really" don't need a company. You can always find a "JOB" The time you "really" need them is in your late 40s and 50s. You "need" their medical benefits, their retirement program and their paycheck. That's when you are "most vulnerable"! That's when they are most likely to cut your heart out."

"The corporation world is "full" of stories of people who were "fired, let go or laid off" after a heart attack, an illness or at age 50."

"Not my company, you say. Have you known anyone to be cut later in life? Maybe you just haven't had your turn..."YET" Look around your company. Isn't it happening right now?"

" Somehow, naively, I thought I was different. But what is going to change to make it better? Is the corporation going to double your income, start doubling in size to open up a place to promote you? Is the government going to cut taxes dramatically so that you can have more money? I finally realized that "for things to change, I had to change; for things to get better, I had to get better." I couldn't wait for them. I looked around.."everyone" who waited for a corporation to improve their lives were "still living" from paycheck to paycheck."

" I realized that the corporation "didn't care" about individuals. Decisions were made that never took "me" into account. I made it through that takeover, but a lot of my friends didn't. They started to hurt financially. Some had to sell their houses, and some used up all their savings. "Would I be next?" I went to work every day in fear, but I knew if I changed jobs it would be the "same thing" There was no escape. The fear followed me whereever I went, "never" knowing when the axe would "fall" "

" Only 22 percent of all employees who started working in 1963 are still with the same company. ( approximate date of pamphlet 1984-6 ) Corporate mergers and takeovers are at record levels. Are you next? I never thought it could happen to me; neither did my friends, but it did"

" Is living from paycheck to paycheck frustrating to you? Can you see it getting any better?"

FWIW ................Take Care

The article mentions that many of these derivatives come due soon? Do you or anyone know the date this is suppose to happen?

This explains all of the mergers.

Also if you read AIG's financial statement, they use swaps and swap options to moderate their investments. AIG, Boeing, and others are pushing hard for the IMF funding from the US.

We knopw that Banks are using derivatives - I wonder how many Corporations are into this form of Gambling? This problem could be even bigger than we know now.

Add to this, Margin and Credit Card debt, and you are talking about some serious money.

HighRise

Logging off now; Wishing you all the very best of goodbyes.

Thanks - I was wondering whether shorting would be an effective solution - if the settlement was possible, payment might be in 1/10 devaluated dollars or some such. Assuming the USG did have to float 10 Buszzilion dollars in new debt, how do you suppose they would go about doing it with no buyers out there? Stuff it into IRAs, 401ks, as zero coupon bonds? Convert all outstanding treasury bills, notes, bonds into zeros to forestall the inevitable?

I try to keep an independent mind and something independent in my hand. Otherwise I would be afraid to step out on the ground because it might fly out from under me. Tomorrow's the last day for remaining brandy. Tequilla is up next- and a big one to you, Charlie

Dumbsh!ts can knock it off. We know the price of gold. DUH. We also know the price of your currencies relative to gold. DUH. We also know that gold is measured in US$. DUH. We also know that gold is cheap......here.....and expensive if your currency is in the TANK. The question YOU should be asking YOURSELVES is......Should I buy gold now??? .....or should I wait and buy gold later. ASK YOURSELF THAT QUESTION. GOLD IS CHEAP TO AMERICANS NOW. They will buy gold now for that reason. It is an individual thing. You make the call.

Puhleeeeeeeaze.....anyone with a calculator can figure this out......DUH.

away....from all whiners......wha-wha-wha...there are soooooo damn many whiners here.........sheeeeeesh ( !#!@!$#@!@#!! )

EB

There was a time when I agreed with some of what you believe. I suggest you study what is considered "critical thinking". The human animal is one weak creature, and you expect too much. You are an idealist, and that is fine up to a point. I suggest you start taking us as we are, ruled by greed and fear primarily. And a few may believe in the Golden Rule and the Ten Commandments, latch on to those and learn from them. But recognize, we live in a very competitive environment, and govern yourself accordingly, recognizing survival is paramount. Good luck!

Good luck tommorrow -- Our gold rally must resume its upward trend very soon. A silver rally could be explosive when it hits.

Regardlss, the next few months will be interesting indeed. Many cyclic patterns are converging, some well before y2k. Time for all gold bugs to be on their toes.

http://www.euro.fee.be/Library/BE/BEC03A2102a.htm

http://www.euro.fee.be/Library/BE/BEC03A2102.htm

ALL: Anyone of you who has occasion to deal with foreign
exchange should take a look too! {:- )

What ? No Buyers for US Debt ? Impossible. World Bank to the rescue.
Then, with US Bionds as collateral The Bank can make loans to Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil so they can buy some US Debt. To collateralize.

This is really an uninspired though workable example. Wall Street whizzes can do much better financial packaging than I can, but you get the idea, I hope. As long as taxes keep coming in to pay the interest to the userers, they can keep inventing debt. At least that's how it looks to me.

( whine ) ......... ( sniffle ) ..........HEY! SHUT THE WHINING UP!!!!...... ( sniffle ) ......O.K., O.k,....I'm okay now.........

NOW FIX ME THAT CUBER LIBRE!!!! ( o.k. ) Now, that'sa little better!!!....um, um, I'll have just one more...yowsah..GO BUGS!!!!

You Sir are the prime example of why most Americans are hated around the world. You are not only as bright as a two watt bulb, you are very typical of a certain class of Americans. I own properties in good old U.S A. And I see your type . You are the type who gives the majority a bad name worldwide...............AAAASSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEe

You Sir are the prime example of why most Americans are hated around the world. You are not only as bright as a two watt bulb, you are very typical of a certain class of Americans. I own properties in good old U.S A. And I see your type . You are the type who gives the majority a bad name worldwide...............AAAASSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEe

I've got a good place, well watered, where we can make a cave. It's ultramafic and that's suppose to be good to ward off radiation. Welcome anytime, Charlie

EB, as a short trader you got bigger rocks than I, my friend. I'm going long on silver and gold, buying physical. I just came back from dinner. A modest meal for me and my wife for $50 including tip. At $5 plus change per oz, silver looks close to free to me.

goodasgold, welcome to our funhouse. Will gold go down some more before it goes up? Who knows? If you believeas I do that gold will go to $1,000 about the time the DOW is back at 2000, then why quibble about $287 vs $310 for gold today? Who cares? Go long.

Spock, same advice, IMHO. Or stay in the stock market. There's gold in them there equities! Er, there was.
-EJ

All: The Communists have decided to support the irate striking miners againts Boris Yeltsin.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin1x.htm

Duh--have ANOTHER nutter butter peanut butter sandwich cookie...

Whatever you may think of EB, that's not how we do things here. Ignore him.
-EJ

I rest my case.

Forgot to report that I received the first shipment of the infamous, extricated Argentine gold loot-a-coins.....The Argentino. Dates range from 1882-1886, uncirc., beautiful face and obverse, approx. one quarter ounce.....$87./ea.. Well worth the money....GREAT old Spanish look. COOL. Can't believe Perez's peopleo traded paper for these....Juan says ohmy!, more maddening mysteries masterfully made by monetarily-muscled manipulators.

Amnesty Int'l gets US on human rights.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Border-Human-Rights.html
rhody - I am still wondering what you mean when you say "wetback."
Skinny - I'm sure you are very tactful in person; too bad your "web personality" is lacking.
- c

what it has to do with gold, silver, etc.??? I am missing the connection.
-EJ

He sounds like a leader of a country knows it all and speakes for everyone.... Thanks for the protection.. wouldn't want to go to india to get the same.

See Kitcos "netiquette" guidelines link above.
-EJ

Where did you get these Argentine gold beauties?
-EJ

JTF: The Russian people ought to tar and feather that old sot, Yeltsin. While the hard-working coal miners of Siberia have gone 6 months without pay, members of the Russian Mafia are buying houses where I live for upwards of $1million, paying CASH. This is first-hand info---NOT hearsay.

ALL,
Dued to the tense or riots from the actions,The gathering call off!Both the regional currencies,stocks rebound a bit!!
rgds,
JIN

I just got a partial fill, long July silver at 5.10

It's difficult to predict Russian events, but
I would say nothing is gonna happen. The last
word belongs to money, not miners or stinking
Commies in Duma. Money talk, miners walk...

We'll see, but Russia is too corrupted for revolution...

In a recent post, DJ made the comment the he could not convince himself that silver could drop this far, this fast. I confess I had that same sentiment before silver made its spectacular plunge from the $6.20 area to the present level. I am still somewhat numb from the ride down as I am long and have been since February.

I kept telling myself that if I jumped out silver would turn on a ( silver ) dime the next instant and head back up in an equally spectacular fashion. So silver slid and I watched in disbelief. As they say in baseball when the pitcher burns one over the plate for strike three, "It caught me looking".

I figured also that if I bailed out and little ol silver kept dropping a while, then turned around it might be a hard decision to jump back in, hoping it was the real turnaround and not just a short rally, only to resume its downward course. Better, I surmised, to ride it down all the way, than to take a chance on being out of the market when the real turnaround occurred. Which brings us to now. If we ain't at the bottom, we gotta be close ( Please, Lord ) . It MIGHT go on down to $4.50, but if it does, it is the buying opportunity of the year. Last July ( or was it August? ) silver bottomed out around $4.15 as I recall. It didn't stay there long, either.

What I would like to know, is WHO is doing all the selling??? Are these just shorts like RJ, playing the market, or is there a conpiracy to make silverbugs crabby and miserable?

I relate all this, thinking there must be a lot of Kitco silverbugs who have the same thoughts and I just wanted you to know you are not alone. Or, maybe I am. I betcha W.B. didn't sell. Whaddya say, Warren?

Well, I endured the agony of reading that site. I thank God I didn't write it. What a mess.

Meant to say...Peron........geeze, one too many Cuba Libres!!! Preparing for mejican exodus, please, excusame por favor......EJ, they came from the INFAMOUS Michael Kosares, USAgold, a division of ANOTHER Enterprises, Inc. ( just kidding, Michael ) .........BTW, I spoke at length to M. Kosares today regarding ANOTHER's decision to post on USAgold......Kosares is doing the right thing.....I think a great deal of Mike and trust him and his judgement.
The ANOTHER "letters" that will be on USAgold are well intentioned and are not influenced by Mike. He does not know who ANOTHER is, or his aide. These "letters" are, in the very, very least, great and enjoyable reading and they MAY BE a lot more than that.

As usual I'll type a couple of lines of verbage to get past the Kitco first paragraph URL bug. Skinny, do you know the difference between Saint Patrick's day and QE2's Birthday? On St. Patty's day everybody wishes they were Irish. ( 8-^} )

Nonferrous Metals Prices:

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0a.htm

Russian Market Steadies?

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0f.htm

Yen Reaching a Seven Year Low:

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn19.htm

Bond Prices Fall:

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1c.htm

India Pulls its Ambassador From China:

http://www.timesofindia.com/200598/20home3.htm

Uncle Sam Caught With His Pants Down and Chicom Missile up His Wazzoo:

http://www.washtimes.com/

Well, actually I just made up that headline. but it sounded good, didn't it?

Tomorrow is the time to buy gold and silver if your still of such a mind. If you already are invested sit back and watch. Dont ask me why because I can not answer adequately but can only say that I feel the time has arrived after tomorrows close.

Im back in to my gold mining shares as of Wednesday. CEF would be a good play for physical in retirement accounts.

This is just my opinion...charts, stohwhatsits, E-waves and all aside. The only thing I can say to you all is it is time. Yes, I may be a fool and wrong but as of tomorrow my $$$ are, fully, on the line for both gold and silver.

My gut tells me so. No one else should follow my feelings...do what your gut tells you.

Tom

HELLO FROM OZ MATE

are buying houses where you live is just absolutely shocking...
That is just awful...What are you going to do?
Did you call cops?

A large communications satellite Galaxy4 was knocked out of orbit by some space junk about 7:20 EST tonight. There is no pager communications as a result. The radio just said millions are not getting their pager messages. TV feeds for cable and broadcast stations are not getting through. I think as the night goes on more news stations will be reporting Galaxy4 going down. I cannot get qlobex quotes via quotes.com....

I thought this is just one small example of technology that has very high 'uptime' record all of a sudden going down.

Just .00001% of the impact of Y2K on Jan 1,2000.

pax

years I too have been wrong other than a few index trades. However, he has given credit to the long term view confirming the potential of 1000 plus au. Short term IMO some easing and basing but no sign of a major break yet.

Brother Studio, did you talk to Mike "long and hard"?
If it was in fact "long and hard", how "yes?" it was?

Just kidding, brother...

Got a good old Irish Whiskey bottle. Empty of course.. Mitchell and
Co. Of Belfast Ltd. It is the only known bottle in the world from this company.Probably worth a ounce of gold.
On saint patricks day Would rather be Q@s Son.

Hahahahahaha. I did a double-take on that one. It was just a
darngag.

Argent - Not a popular subject on this site, but a working knowledge of e waves, gann lines, cycles etc. ( different from a theoretical knowledge ) predicted this drop to near perfect degree.

Hey... Glad to hear from you. I do Some work down there.
Skellurup ind.

Thx for the tip on USAgold for unc. Arg gold. Hope all is well in So. CA. Until later....
-EJ

"ouch".

That is what I would say if I had any wattage in my bulb.

Yeah......that ole "the world hates 'muricans" thing again.

YAWN...

away......for a fatty........ ( puff-puff )

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