Delphi
Dow/Gold correlation
is still positive - both have heavy losses today. Take a look here
![]()
EVERYONE should not own a gun.
Sound ridiculous. That's the obvious complication
regarding the gun issue.
Regarding criminal behavior, I highly recommend
the book INSIDE THE CRIMINAL MIND by Stanton E.
Samenow. See book review:
Bretton Woods fell through because Lyndon Johnson tried his 'guns and butter' economics and it didn't work. Excessive trade deficits killed the dollar before Nixon was elected. I can remember an economics professor moaning over Johnson's blatant attempt to get something for nothing. He was 'managing the economy' for the good of us all and he blew it.
At the same time, the banks are supposed to start weeding out all the non performing company loans from their books. The debt levels of the Chaebols ( large corporate conglomerates ) are about 5 times their assets on average.
This is the nation, don't forget, that was on the brink of default last December when the IMF rode to the rescue. It is also the nation that had a "whip round" to collect all of its citizens Gold so that it could raise some "hard" currency to make ends meet.
You are indeed a gentleman
Must be the music in your heart
You know I always wish you well
RJ
http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html
Looks like a fall to the bottom of the envelope ( around $295/oz ) is becoming less likely - the short-term gold cycle is bottoming and beginning to turn up.
For those of you who follow this interesting approach to forcasting the mining stock market ( Toronto Precious Metals Index ) , here's their latest update of current pricing ( in blue ) vs. forecast trend.
Short-term ( closeup = cl ) forecast
http://home.istar.ca/~inpath/gold-cl.gif
Long-term forecast
PLEASE READ THIS AGAIN
http://www.kitco.com/netiquette.html
Thank you.
Go Gold!
bbml
--------------------------------
Can't confirm this one but I thought it was pertinent to this here weekend discussion thing........uh huh.
talk about bein' in the red......this page looks ugly......ouch ( ! )
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc
-------------------------------
I'll bet you didn't know dept:
It takes 3000 cows to supply the NFL with enough leather for
a year's supply of footballs.
-------------------------------
I've always wondered about this one.......:
The cigarette lighter was invented before the match.
-------------------------------
and you thought it was only white men who couldn't:
Elephants can't jump. Every other mammal can.
------------------------------
oh hell.....I guess I'll go to work......ho hum.
away...to be back later.....ohmy.
ruised&batteredfromweekend
go gold ( . )
away....to get knee-deep in it
SEASia worries me, given the fact that Japanese bank investigation looks like a thing of the past, and that the SKorean Chaebols have 5x debt to equity ratio ( the latter according to Bill Buckler ) . By the way, I have some puts on the Mexican index -- looking weaker and weaker. The ElNino related forest fires in mexico and South America are so bad that there is haze in Texas and North Carolina ( pretty sure ) . If mexico implodes, this will pull the US markets down for a time, and then 'flight to safety' will take over again.
My intuitive guess is that we are in the last legs of repeating the 1929 scenario, where the US markets were the last to go -- could be a year of two after the serial devaluations elsewhere in the world.
I will try to post you a interesting URL about ElNino. Statistically it seems that a big ElNino tends to begin in Indonesia, roll over into Australia after about 6 months, and then worsen in the central US and South America in the second year. This may be our ElNino year in the US.
Take care --
http://www.wsws.org/news/1998/may1998/econ-m26.shtml
If you're in a rush, here's the punchline:
An editorial in the London-based Financial Times of May 23 warned: "The longer the Asian crisis
goes on, the greater the repercussions for the rest of the world could be. And at the moment, the
end does not seem in sight. Worse, another twist of the vicious circle, with further damaging
currency devaluations and resulting financial problems still cannot be ruled out."
Western countries had yet to receive the full force of the crisis, the editorial stated, and there were
dangers of a second round of currency devaluations. If either, or both, the Japanese yen and the
Chinese renminbi were to plunge, "the effect on the world economy would dwarf the impact of the
Asian crisis so far," sparking a new round of devaluations and undermining Western stock markets.
Just returned & saw your questions from this morning......Carl -my guess is that it IS forcasting a reversal.....expecially when viewed in the context of the oversold nature of the XAU on a short-term and intermediate-term basis, and the short-term gold cycle probably turning up.
I'm interested in this forcasting system, but I personally don't intend to put a great deal of weight on it ( by itself ) until it has proven itself to me. A continuation of correct trend forecasting through 2 more up waves and then a break of the channel ( on the way down ) will do that for me, and then I may be interested in buying their system. If the correct forecasting trend holds, then I may take some profits or buy some XAU puts on the 2nd wave up from here, just in case the long fall down proves to be the case.
chas - you may be able to take the long-term chart gif and convert it to a picture file and zoom-in to the area of interest to fit your screen, or perhaps do the same for the short-term chart. I'm not especially adept at such manipulations.
Farfel -
Could you explain, in detail, your reasons for your stated view on platinum? Do you have any facts or figures to support your contention that platinum will fall? Are you aware of actual Russian supplies? Are you aware of current industrial usage? Do you think that platinum usage has gone up or down over the last several months? What is the capacity of industry to meet current demand? Future demand? Are there any stockpiles to go to supplement shipments? Has any product with platinum in its history experienced a fall-off of sales? Are there any new products that require platinum entering the market? Are there acceptable substitutes for platinum in certain applications?
I would like to learn why you believe platinum will fall.
Thank You
Read this, chum ( you know, LGB, what really surprises and disappoints me about this is that *you* would have ANYTHING at all to do with it, that you wouldn't just walk away from a job before helping the Chinese achieve greater accuracy with missles aimed at U.S. cities ) :
=-=-=
World Net Daily
May 26, 1998 Joseph Farah
Not for commercial use. Solely to be fairly used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.
The Clinton-Loral-China axis
Bernard Schwartz, chief executive officer of Loral Space & Communications, tells
The New York Times he considers President Clinton a friend, "but not the kind of
friend that you can call upon for favors."
We're supposed to believe that Schwartz invested $1.3 million in Clinton's political
campaigns without the expectation of special treatment. If that's true, you would
expect Loral stockholders to demand an explanation for such reckless disregard of
their interests. I doubt you'll see such a move. Because Loral got plenty of bang for
its buck.
"I can say absolutely, categorically, I have never spoken with the president about
any Loral business, except on one occasion," he says. Notice the careful wording of
that statement. Never ... except on one occasion. Furthermore, it's clear Schwartz
and his company did ask the president and his administration for favors -- for
special treatment -- on more than one occasion.
Last February, Schwartz needed a quick decision from the government about the
launching of a Loral satellite aboard a Chinese rocket later that month. Within two
weeks the president gave Loral permission -- overruling the advice of his Justice
Department, which was investigating Loral's satellite deals with China. Clinton also
broke with past policy and the advice of his State Department and Pentagon.
When was the last time you got an answer -- any answer -- from the federal
government in less than two weeks? This was a big favor -- a huge one. By working
with the Chinese, instead of U.S. satellite launchers, the deal saved Loral potentially
hundreds of millions of dollars.
Nevertheless, Schwartz maintains he never personally asked the president for
anything that would benefit his company. These are lawyerly word games -- the kind
America has become accustomed to since this administration came to power.
This was just the most recent favor. In 1994, Schwartz pushed hard for a seat on a
trip to China led by Commerce Secretary Ron Brown. The trip paid off in spades
for Loral. A meeting in Beijing with a top official led to Loral winning a deal to
provide cellular telephone service to China, an agreement that will soon be worth
$250 million annually.
Later, in May 1996, Schwartz wrote to Clinton urging him make the Commerce
Department the clearing house for approval of export licensing of commercial
satellites rather than the State Department. Once again, Schwartz got his way.
But still, we're supposed to believe that Clinton would have made the same decisions
with the same timing had Schwartz not been the single biggest donor to the his
political career. For Pete's sake, last year Clinton even threw Schwartz a birthday
party at the White House.
None of this stuff is really new or particularly earth-shaking, however. Money has
always been linked to political influence. No matter what kinds of campaign finance
reforms America adopts, it simply seems to get worse. But the real horror, the real
crime, the real treachery of the Clinton-Loral-China axis comes in the substance of
the deals with China -- the dirty little details about technology transferred to China
because of this political patronage.
This is a scandal unlike any other in American history. Clinton and Schwartz have
nothing on Benedict Arnold. The sensitive technical data shared with the Chinese for
simple greed and power has apparently enhanced the reliability of Beijing's
long-range nuclear missiles -- missiles, by the way, targeted at the United States.
Schwartz doesn't like such talk. He objects when people like me suggest he placed
his own avaricious business interests ahead of national security. But, you know
what? I don't really blame Schwartz. There are always greedy businessmen willing to
sell out their country's long-term interests for a little short-term financial gain. What
is shocking, however, is to consider the fact that we have a president of the United
States who is willing to make such treasonous decisions.
"To attach words like 'treason' and 'traitor' to these activities is a deeply disturbing
development," moans Schwartz.
I'll bet it is. It's always disturbing when a criminal gets caught. It's even more
disturbing when our highest elected officials, entrusted, first and foremost, with
protecting the nation's vital interests, sell their political souls to nuclear-age tyrants.
The only trouble I have with words like "treason" and "traitor" is that they don't
seem harsh enough to describe the shameful activities of Clinton and Schwartz.
Joseph Farah is editor of the Internet newspaper WorldNetDaily.com and executive director of
the Western Journalism Center, an independent group of investigative reporters.
I will address some other points later, but your misunderstanding of the PGM market is a common one.
There are no stockpiles to go to.
They do not exist.
From where are the Russians and the South Africans going to get the metal they dump on the market?
This alone, undermines your argument.
I will be back later to shred it completely.
In the most polite way possible.
Thank You
Before I refute your latest with actual facts and sources, perhaps I may ask one question.
Does a commodity in "oversupply" achieve historic highs in price?
I must return to the office.
Thank you
Before you dig yourself deeper, I must admit this is a trap.
Before you write of supply and demand, take a good look around you
I will wager a new computer you are looking at platinum right now.
The catalytic market is not the only use of these metals.
Many people are not aware of how much platinum they use
Some are surprised to find themselves ingesting it
Others find It brightens their lives
You are using it now
Yes
In reality, we all know that we are in a long term bottoming phase after a ( long ) 2 year bear market. The question is when gold will rally. Probably a better statement would not be 'rally' but rather a trading range -- for several months, at least. I think you should tip your hat to RJ, the Oldman, APH, Cyclist etc. on that matter, as the traders ( not the long - term investors ) will have the best insight into the 'when'. Right now I have about 30% of my liquid assets in gold stocks ( as of last week ) , and I am regretting every minute of it. I haven't decided whether a 5% losss is all I can tolerate, or whether I will go to 10%. I know that time is on my side, but I do now know that I was premature, and I have learned some technical lessons the hard ( and probably the best ) . The gold market is especially difficult to play in when there is so much deflation in the world around us.
On the positive side, I still have alot of cash left over for the right moment, even if I am not making money right now on the short side.
I think the US markets will stride right into the y2k era without a collapse. That will be long term bullish for gold.
Just think how much more money you could make if you listened a bit more to RJ and Oldman, etal -- after translating the information they are giving you into your own investment style. I have learned alot.
I will use Johnson Matthey statistics ( dated last week ) to support my argument.
Most, in this industry consider them conservative in their projections, so I am sure I will find nobody disagreeing with the numbers, yes?
- brings the mid east to a near war... remember, arms stored in the palaces, so search and arrest. Outcome: none found ... yet!.
- aids in fighting far east financial crisis in Korea and Indonesia by sending in the IMF. Outcome: their financials tank. - President Clinton announces huge annual US surplus. Outcome: Accumulated deficit rises by 10 X the surplus!!
- dollar increases in value relative to the rest of the world, disadvantaging US industry. Outcome... US markets rise to ever new heights.
- supposed standard of living goes up, while the rest of the world collapses. Outcome.. lets wait, but not for long.
There is an ever increasing sense that this stacked deck of cards being played out in the favour of the US is about to backfire. Heard on board a visiting US battleship over the weekend here in Victoria BC, "if they don't see it our way, we can and will use these little babies". That sentiment is reflected in their approach to the monetary war in much the same fashion as their military would apply its force in a shooting war. The question is not, will the rest of the world push back, but when will the rest of the world push back?
That war increasingly looks to be an economic war, not a military action, at least initially. On the military side, the US looks and is unbeatable. But on the monetary side, they are vulnerable. One of the main weapons in the monetary war will be gold. Another will be cheap ( relative to the US ) labour. It looks like the Europeans are setting up for that encounter, and will use the gold weapon. We dont know, but are the Mid East powers and the Chinese doing the same? Where did that supposed 1000 tonnes of Dutch, the Korean 275 tonnes, the Australian or Belgian gold go?, China?, Saudi Arabia?, ... where? Meanwhile, the consequential result of the huge deflation in the Far East gives them the labour advantage. They will flood the US with cheap things.
Gold will ultimately be the choice benchmark, thus neutralising the many factors so skilfully managed by the US. That tells me that the Mid East will look to be paid in gold for that oil, or a currency backed by gold. Its an interesting fact that since the second world war, no freeworld commercial aircraft has ever been paid for in anything but US $$... until now! I believe the Belgians have purchased 3 aircraft from Airbus, and will pay for them in Euro's.
I think the war has started.
Bury your head in the sand if you want, LGB: these press reports are not just the work of the VRWC. The mainstream media is picking up on the story and running with it, as I'm sure you are well-aware.
Lastly, you make it sound as if you were Bernie's right-hand man on the Chinese satellite contract. I sincerely hope for your sake that you were not -- because, yes, I still do like you. Even if you can't take a joke.
And now I'll say no more about this off-topic waste of bandwidth, on Kitco's dime.
RS -
The USS New Jersey opened up its 16 inch guns and lobbed dozens of two thousand pound shells directly over my head in Beirut, 1983. You are right, only one thing like it in the world.
Boom
LBG -
Im sorry, I cant be seen talking to you.
To all the rest:
You are right, it was LBG who personally shipped secret missile technology to the Chinese. I have photographs of him putting the technology in the trunk of his car. Its LGB, no doubt about it. I could tell by the Large Gray Briefcase ( no leaky gum boots that day ) . He had a little trouble cramming all that technology into his trunk and, as I recall, he had to sit on the trunk and bounce up and down to get it to latch.
Through Zivas highly placed intelligence sources, I obtained the entire dossier on LGB. Seems he corresponds with a wacky bunch of anarchists on some gold forum. I am convinced that LGB and the Chinese have been doing all this lurking behind our backs to the great detriment of THE WORLD!
I knew I shoulda listened to ANOTHER
Sigh
Agenda ducks real IMF reform
Saturday, May 23, 1998
By Terence Corcoran
WITH the political and economic crisis growing in Indonesia, the meeting of Asia-Pacific finance
ministers this weekend in Alberta becomes an appropriate occasion for the region's major powers to cast a reform-minded look at the International Monetary Fund and the other institutions milling
about the uneasy world financial system. Formally, the ministers are scheduled to do just that, with particular attention focused on an agenda -- supported by Finance Minister Paul Martin -- under the heading "strengthening the architecture of the global financial system." The reform program, however, looks more like an attempt to strengthen the bureaucratic infrastructure underlying the existing collection of doubtful institutions and expand the powers of global regulators and bureaucrats.
The basic outline of the reform agenda was approved by G7 finance ministers at a meeting in
London this month. Unfortunately, the reform plan is long on wordy calls for greater
"transparency," urgent co-operation, enhanced supervision, global codes of good practice, "sound
policy making," greater openness, increased data dissemination, effective monitoring, improved
global supervision of international agencies, etc., etc. All of this will greatly expand the reach of the IMF and other organizations. But the plan is curiously short on explanation of how any of the
reforms would help avoid a financial crisis of the type engulfing Asia today.
Even the more obvious and acknowledged failings of the current IMF-led financial agencies are
sidestepped with qualified responses. The fact that the IMF's multibillion-dollar emergency lending packages amount to bailouts of large private lenders in the United States and Europe is clearly acknowledged as a problem. By bailing out global commercial banks from their bad loans, the IMF creates a moral hazard that encourages them to risk lending money to unstable dictatorships, knowing that the IMF will bail them out.
The reform plan mostly ducks the moral hazard issue. Should taxpayers in Canada finance the
bailout of banks that lent money in Indonesia? The obvious answer is no, but the reform plan
waffles. In a section called "burden sharing by the private sector and moral hazard," the G7
ministers would only say: "It would be highly desirable to create in advance a framework for
handling debt arrears to make it clear that all exposed institutions in the private sector will bear
some costs."
Another curiosity of the reform plan is an attempt to include labour and environmental standards as part of an expanded IMF focus. The ministers want the IMF to work with the International Labour Organization to promote "core labour standards" and with the "competent international institutions to promote sound environmental standards." Much as everybody would like to boost living standards in Indonesia and elsewhere to North American levels, imposing labour standards ( a euphemism for pro-union legislation ) on developing nations is hardly the way to do it.
Mr. Martin and other finance ministers are appropriately concerned about the growing army of
unemployed and the drastically reduced growth prospects in Indonesia and other countries caught
up in the Asian financial crisis. Much of the escalating hardship, however, can be laid at the door of the IMF and the approach taken by the major powers. By allowing and even encouraging a major currency crisis in the region, the current global policy makers caused a massive flight of capital.The result was inflation, plunging growth, mass unemployment and widespread economic suffering.
There appears to be nothing in the reform agenda under discussion this weekend that acknowledges the chain of cause and effect between IMF-style interventions and bailouts and massive economic dislocation. Building up a major expansion of global regulators may keep everybody busy -- until the next crisis. What the discussion should be focusing on is how to restore stability to the currencies of the Asian nations now, and how to avoid currency collapses in the future. It's a task that looks all the more difficult today than it did six months ago.
U.S. a culprit in Indonesia crisis
Tuesday, May 26, 1998
By Terence Corcoran
PAUL Martin and the finance ministers of 18 other Asia-Pacific nations wrapped up their weekend
meeting in the Alberta resort village of Kananaskis on Sunday with a sweeping ministerial statement
that dodged most of the economic bullets. Emerging with an especially clean record was the
International Monetary Fund. In a section of the statement titled "Causes of the Financial Instability
in Asia," the IMF rated not one reference, even though the fund has played a serious
trouble-making role as Asian currencies collapsed and the region was plunged into recession.
Also glossed over is the deteriorating political and economic situation in Indonesia. The ministers
noted the rising levels of unemployment throughout Asia and the impact on the poor, especially
women and children. "In Indonesia," the statement said, "there is even evidence of food shortages
and inadequate medical supplies." No mention, however, of 500 deaths, looting, rioting,
prerevolutionary fever, and grave risk to the Chinese business class. And there was no reference to
the two major consequences of IMF-imposed economic medicine: a currency devalued by 80 per
cent and an inflation rate forecast to hit 45 per cent this year on the heals of 35 per cent last year.
No doubt the deposing of a dictator is stimulating sport, especially if you're thousands of kilometres
away, CNN reception is good and the golf is fine. But the economic upheaval in Indonesia has done
more than force out a dictator. The lives of 200 million people have been financially ruined, the risk
of violent revolution has increased, and the economic situation is even more precarious. Is this
brinkmanship a justifiable purpose of international economic policy making?
One of the few people with inside knowledge of Indonesia's economic collapse who's also willing to
talk about it is Steve Hanke, economics professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore,
vice-chairman of Friedberg Mercantile Group's U.S. subsidiary, and, briefly, an adviser to former
Indonesian president Suharto. In an interview from Paris, Mr. Hanke laid the blame for riots,
violence and the extreme economic hardship at the door of the IMF and the major economic
powers -- especially the United States -- that dominate the international agency. "The IMF was told
what to do, and they did it. Foreign policy is run in the United States by Secretary [Robert] Rubin
in Treasury. . . . It's the U.S. operating in an imperialistic way as [it] did in the last part of the 19th
century."
Mr. Hanke, an expert in currency boards, was called in by Suharto at the end of January to attempt
to set up an Indonesian currency board that would halt the rupiah's fall, and set the stage for
reform. At that time, the IMF had already imposed two reform programs that had created nothing
but more turmoil and more panic. The first program in November of last year called for bank
reorganizations, trade liberalization and tax increases. Through tight money and a flexible exchange
rate, the IMF also envisaged "stabilizing the rupiah."
Rather than save it, the program caused the currency to crash. "It just set off a huge financial panic,
and the capital flight started occurring big time," Mr. Hanke said. Another reform package was
assembled in early January by the IMF with backing of the United States and other members of the
Group of Seven nations. Infrastructure projects were cancelled. More banks were to be closed.
Monopolies ended. But the package "had nothing to address the immediate problem, which was a
financial panic and impending currency crisis. So when the market saw that agreement, literally the
day it was signed, the rupiah started heading south," Mr. Hanke said.
By mid-January, the rupiah, which the IMF kept saying it wanted to stabilize, had been devalued by
70 per cent. Mr. Hanke said Suharto called in the last week in January. "He knew he had to
stabilize the currency, and he knew he'd get blown out of the there -- we actually talked about this
-- if he couldn't."
The Hanke plan, which included many of the IMF reforms but with a currency board added on, was
designed to reverse the financial panic, draw capital back into Indonesia, and restore some of the
purchasing power of the people of Indonesia. But the IMF and the United States resisted the
currency board reform. "The pressure was just too much, and Suharto caved."
The objective of the currency board was to establish the value of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar
by replacing the central bank with a board that would maintain reserves of dollars equal to 100 per
cent of the rupiah in circulation. Similar boards exist in Argentina and Hong Kong, two nations that
have avoided currency panics over the past few years. "My objective was to stabilize the currency,
because if you didn't . . . I concluded that there would be riots and a lot of blood on the streets."
Ignoring this possibility, on April 10 the IMF announced another plan that included what it called "a
strong monetary policy to ensure stabilization of the rupiah." That was followed by fuel price
increases, and another major currency retreat. Thus, after months of IMF ministrations, Indonesia
today is in worse shape than it was in January, and, until the currency crisis is addressed, the
country will remain a political and economic shambles.
That is a problem with gold bugs -- they see only the up, and not the down -- even after nearly 20 years. It took me a while to figure out that we were in a two year gold bear -- I guess I was Idol worshipping too much. Out of curiousity, how much money did you lose during our devastating gold bear?
For your information, I am still long gold stocks, but the pressure is rising to sell -- I hope Preacher is right that we are bottoming. By the way, I forgot to add Preacher to the list of experts that I respectfully follow -- one primary criteria I use to determine an expert in gold is that they are not perpetually long.
You may be the most honest, forthright, upstanding honor-bound American satellite technology expert, but it is pretty clear some ethical boundaries have been breached with this satellite business, and criminal investigations will continue, regardless who was actually at fault. You are probably right that your company had been given full authority by a high-level somebody in the US government. But -- when the chips are down, a fall guy ( or fall guys ) will be identified so that they can be punished, regardless of who was told what. The people that are punished are usually not the highest level guys that made the bad decisions, though they may have to resign. The ones that usually need to worry are 'middle level' troops. '
Please watch yourself -- we don't want you to be one of the 'fall guys'
All I can hope for is that the massive security leaks are plugged, the clipper chips have been destroyed, and my associates ( of many years ago ) are burning the midnight oil making all of the lost technology obsolete. One of my friends said this happens frequently enough when the adversaries use spies. Haven't asked him recently just how much work must now be done when the secrets are given away freely. What a fiasco.
The reason why this is bad, even if 'nearly' free trade is good, is that this encourages nuclear weapons proliferation, as well as preparation for military action. There are too many times in history when a major war or a World War was precipated years before by the desire of an entrepreneur to 'make a quick buck' ( the current scenario ) . I won't go into details -- as there are others here who could rattle off pages of examples. My point is that military sales or technology leaks are just as inexcusable in peacetime as they are in wartime, as the military weapons stockpiling prepares us for the next war. And -- the next war will not be a pleasant one -- no one will be able to escape a Nuclear war unscathed -- be it in 10 years, or 25 years. Gold will be of little value if it is radioactive.
But -- I doubt that commercial satellite encryptation 'black boxes' have self-destruct codes -- got to save money, you know. Let us just hope that the encryptation hardware the Chinese apparently got from a failed satellite launch does not allow them to 'reverse engineer' access to our military communications. And -- there is the small matter of those 80 or so briefings by John Huang in the Commerce department regarding encryptation techology. The puzzle is many times easier to unravel if you have the plans ( or something similar ) .
My guess is that after there are no other markets to collapse -- Europe, South America,etc., then the US markets will be at their greatest risk. We are not there yet. But I agree with you that the big one might be soon -- y2k, perhaps. Now, if we have a crushing bear, gold and gold stocks will start to shine.
Undoubtedly you already know that Loral and two other communications firms fixed some sort of defective electrical connection in the Chinese launch vehicles, unbenownst to the proper US authorities. That fix made the Chinese missles much more reliable, and it will be just a matter of time before the Chinese fix their military versions.
LGB -- Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying that I think Loral is the culprit in all of this. It is clear to me that the problem is that the security of our military has been breached at many sites. There must be much cleaning up at the highest levels before our national security will return to what it should be.
What about that massive nuclear complex they have been working on for the last 25 years in the ( Gobi? ) desert? And -- my roomate at graduate school ( I wont' say which University ) was Chinese -- genius level. My Chinese classmate one year ahead of me got a Nobel prize in physics -- also genius level. What you forget is who trained these Chinese physicists that will be reverse engineering all of the technology that you ( and your fellow compatriots ) painstakingly designed. And -- they have full access to our scientific literature.
I am in favor of continuing scientific collaboration with the Chinese -- during peacetime, anyway. And I am infavor of maintaining ( mostly ) open trade. I am not in favor of freely giving away military secrets.
I don't know what will happen. My gues is that the commodity price index will bottom, and so will gold/gold stocks -- very soon -- because we will have a bear -- not a crash. I suspect that I am more exposed than you in my gold stocks -- probably a mistake on my part -- but I do have a fair number of mexican and sp500 puts.
What does the Oldman say? Yesterday he was long the spoos.
But -- I repeat again -- please be careful.
With her head held high in a position to strike, what did she
do, that venomous shrew.
Spued forth did she that vile "vomit" of money, earlier eaten with such raaaaaavenous vigor.
Puke again you vile "Bitch" ay.. I believe she may..............RBStanding
out the way!!
Also, the justice folks are now after the Intel part of Win-Tel. Is nothing sacred anymore? :- ) )
The question becomes how do you devalue the dollar WITHOUT imploding everything?
Good night all........
Airbrushed Bill singing happy happy songs to the market today. Now we will stop callin' him Billy Bob Nixon and can start callin' him "Happy" Billy Hoover. J Edgar considered it his responsibility to put the bright face on calamity to prevent panic.
What kind of fool am I? Who never fell in love with a market?
SilverBaron and Sharefin, thank you for your generous postings. This has been one tough market day to get in touch with. Reach out and touch the event horizon. The movies keep touch with our realities. Is this wierd or what?
My first exposure to gold was in 1993, also -- brokers would call me up and ask me what I was doing -- doubled my money. Beginners luck.
You know, you really don't need to be pro-gold on Kitco. You are preaching to the Choir.
By the way, I think silver will burst out of its lows in the next few weeks, repeating the second phase of the 1993 gold bull , but with silver leading rather than gold. The only thing that is really worrying me now is why the commodity price index is dropping so rapidly. That is not inflationary at all -- makes me worry that D.A. might have it wrong after all.
All: Does anyone know why the cry0 is dropping? Delayed oil bear effect? Problems in Europe? If the US markets become the only ones standing, that will be very deflationary indeed, as long as the foreign commerce is still functional. The US markets would probably skyrocket, due to low interest rates and flight to safety, only to collapse when the last scared dollar enters the markets. Repeat of 1929 likely, eventually.
My intuitive guess is that the cry0 will turn about abruptly this summer or fall when ElNino effects in North and South America affect agricultural products. This will cause gold and silver to bottom as well. Hope this is not just wishful thinking.
I like the tightly organized rationalization the newswriter has when dismissing the first quarter surge in Indian gold buying. Then next week when the POG goes up will they say 'see we mentioned Indian buying last week but nobody paid attention'?
I like the tightly organized rationalization the newswriter has when dismissing the first quarter surge in Indian gold buying. Then next week when the POG goes up will they say 'see we mentioned Indian buying last week but nobody paid attention'?
What if the 'big traders' are getting set up in their gold trades? Wouldn't you try to push gold down one last time for that perfect 'long gold trade?' Maybe this is not due to the equities wilting, but something quite different?
away...to batten down the hatches
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