Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed May 27 1998 00:00 - ID#57232)
We are not the only ones who read Tony Snow's article
All: Please note the number of states represented in the letters submitted. Isn't the internet great?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:00 - ID#43460)
themissinglink thanks for the reply
I've been thinking of doing a gold casting, but never have gotten up the courage. If I do it will be something along the line of an animal figure like the Celtic boars of the La Tene period. $1200 an ounce do you say? Sounds pretty good, particularly if what they say about gold is true. I had a failed casting of a bronze auroch last week, but my silver Irish stag turned out well. I cast them just to look at them, though. IMHO

You said "On another note, since you outed yourself as a behavioral engineer I have been troubled by your monikor. Gag and Radiate? Go back to 223, it's less creepy." Gee, you know how to hurt a guy! The moniker is the one Odin chose as his disguise when he went to riddle the giant Vafthrudnir. ( Besides, I'm not one of the baddies. I just wanted to be able to admit to enough real experiance to having seen enough to recognize when the velvet glove of modern liberalism/socialism hides its medieval iron fist. ) IMHO

(Wed May 27 1998 00:00 - ID#373403)
Title 12 USC, Section 95a -;
95. Emergency limitations and restrictions on business of members of Federal reserve system; designation of legal holiday for national banking associations; exceptions; "State" defined
( a ) In order to provide for the safer and more effective operation of the national Banking System and the Federal Reserve System, to preserve for the people the full benefits of the currency provided for by the Congress through the national banking system and the Federal reserve system, and to relieve interstate commerce of the burdens and obstructions resulting from the receipt on an unsound or unsafe basis of deposits subject to withdrawal by check, during such emergency period as the President of the United States by proclamation may prescribe, no member bank of the Federal reserve system shall transact any banking business except to such extent and subject to such regulations, limitations and restrictions as may be prescribed by the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President. Any individual, partnership, corporation, or association, or any director, officer or employee thereof, violating any of the provisions of this section shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction thereof, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or, if a natural person, may, in addition to such fine, be imprisoned for a term not exceeding ten years. Each day that any such violation continues shall be deemed a separate offense.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:02 - ID#410215)
..... We are not handcuffed, here .....

Farfel wrote:

However, the day rapidly approaches where they will be wrong in calling the new gold up-trend...and I can guarantee you that they will fail to recognize the turn in time to profit from it. Inevitably, they will give back at least 50% or more of their profits from the past several years"

Farfel -

Its called covering a short and going long. You are allowed to do that anytime you want. If a boat is sinking, do you stay on it?


(Wed May 27 1998 00:04 - ID#190411)
another of the prescient ones......
has to be Kaplan's site.
I recall the pooh-poohing of his call about the blow off, ( minor ) in gold when it got to 310.
He was right on the money.
I sent him a little reply mentioning that his call on silver and gold was superb.
He had the courtesy to respond, even when I said no response was neccesary.
In his reply he said that he hoped that I wasn't in platinum.,Dang, another good call.
If there are any lurkers that will take the time to study and learn the terminology of the metals markets, Mr. Kaplan will be of use to you.
BTW, when he said silver was EXTREMELY BEARISH ( his words ) , I bought, and promptly lost a dollar an ounce.
His words BEAR watching.
Now, will some kind kitcoite that knows about computers please post his site?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:05 - ID#227238)
Big trader bounces.
JTF: You're concentrating on causes. More important, IMO, are the effects. They are what produce that feeling of 'airy lightness' in the wallet.

Big guy, little guy or devil theories, at least for the short term the trend is not a friend, if long you be.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:06 - ID#24135)
Gold Trading 101
for 2BRO2B..
Think you went EARLY .. Read APH 20:21
I think. It should be required reading.

For Farfel
That would be fun ..

(Wed May 27 1998 00:07 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Now, onto the PGMs:

Let me get this straight, from your last post on the subject, you are contending that palladium is not in short supply? Could you quote your source of that information? You compare a market in a cornering feeding frenzy ( silver 1980 ) , with a market in fundamental shortage. This is exactly the type of disingenuous logic you are wont to label everybody else with.

Soooooo, some facts:

According to Johnson Matthey, palladium usage increased in 1997. American and Japanese auto manufacturers are substituting platinum for palladium and moving away from palladium altogether. You assert the are Huge supplies stockpiled by American companies? Which ones? How much do they have? At what price? When will they need to buy more? What is the cost to carry this enormous inventory? Most importantly, where did they get it, since so many others seem to be having such trouble getting what they need? These are fundamental questions and could use some examination before you publicly announce on this forum that PGMs are dead. In making that determination, it would be nice to be aware of at least some of these answers, yes?

You have posted more than once the Russians would dump PGMs, yet you fail to explain why they sold not one single ounce at the highest price in history. No have they sold one single ounce this year, during the longest and highest palladium rally of all time. If they need the cash, where are the sales? If they are manipulating this market, where are the profits of the metal they sold so high? From Russia, only silence. If they had it they would ship it. The metal does not exist.

( Personal supposition: I suspect last years shipments were finance and supplied by Tiger, with Tiger taking a healthy chunk-o-the profits. )



JM Reports that:

Production of platinum Jewelry jumped 75% in China in 1997. Global sales of platinum jewelry increased by 9% last year to 2.16 million troy ounces. Total platinum demand was up 4.8% to 5.2 million ounces, while supply was stable at 4.97 million ounces, a 230,000 ounce shortfall.

Palladium demand increase by 21% last year to a record 7.46 million ounces, leaving a 210,000 ounce deficit. Demand in 1997 increased by 1.31 million ounces, and has nearly doubled since 1990. Russia shipped almost 2 million ounces in 1990, compared with 5.6 million ounces in 1996, but shipments fell off by 800,000 ounces to 4.8 million in 1997. 2.75 million ounces delivered were supplemented by Russian stocks. ( read Tiger )

JM forecasts:

Platinum demand will grow by 2-3 percent this year with a volatile range of $370 -$450. Palladium demand will "rise substantially in 1998"

JM also reported that:

"This years forecast growth would see higher consumption in new jewelry markets - especially China - and advanced industrial applications outweighing lower sales to auto makers and Japanese jewelry manufacturers. Demand is likely to outstrip supply as neither South Africa nor Russian producers have the flexibility to increase platinum output short term"

"Russian platinum inventories, which have been used to support sales at levels well above production for the last four years, are believed to be low."

Please pay particular attention to the quotes. This is from Johnson Matthey, the worlds largest refiner of Platinum and palladium. I think these sources may be put at least at par with a cocktail party export guy, yes? Would it be wise to be aware of these facts before declaring to the world that PGMs are dead? On the word of a guy at a party? I think most here would look at the above, and choose these numbers as a more reasonable arguments in favor of PGMs, regardless of what your buddy says. I also think I understand you a whole lot better now.

For some further quotes on industry substitution from palladium to platinum:


(Wed May 27 1998 00:10 - ID#373403)
Casting bronze? Yuck! Dirty metal, bad. Stick with silver or gold. What do they say about gold ( I am afraid to ask on this forum ) ?

Tip #1 Stay at your top burnout temperature longer than the books say
Tip #2 You can never have too many sprues on an original model
Tip #3 The bigger the button, the less porosity
Tip #4 If you are casting centrifically, use a stirring rod to make sure the metal is molten throughout

I guess you can keep the monikor.


(Wed May 27 1998 00:10 - ID#410114)
Why do you bother.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:11 - ID#252127)

What happens when you are correctly short and there's no metal to buy back to cover, do you roll over and pay exorbidant commission for the roll over?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:12 - ID#253228)
Silverbaron, updates as you requested. Reposting from 5-26, 20:35 in case you missed.

Above are updates of previously posted projections. Note that each new post is
slightly different from the prior projection, as a result of the effects of new data
points, internal dynamics of the recalculation process and sometimes newly
identified oscillations.

I know it sounds wacky. I also know it works more often than not at least enough
to make money.

I remember the stock market crash in 1987. The gold shares held up for one day
and then went the way of the rest of the market.

The market is high relative to its trend. This is not to be a crash. I have come to the
conclusion that for a crash, the crest of the waves must reach about 40% above
trend. At 30% above trend the reversal is more controlled. In my book a
correction covering six months and 30% is not a crash.

The downmove in gold shares I presume will be driven in part by the decline in
gold and in part by the change in perception in the stock market.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:17 - ID#335190)
This may have been posted before @ Dow 10,000 bug.
Dow 10,000 bug -- smoke or fire?

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- While the world struggles to avoid a year 2000 computer crash, a prominent technology consultant warns some Wall Street computers could go berserk once the Dow Jones industrial average crosses 10,000.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and others have dismissed the warning about computer confusion once the Dow adds a fifth digit, but some information systems experts say the reaction is similar to the initial warnings of the year 2000 problem.

Technology consultant Gartner Group says some Wall Street computers have old software that could read a 10,000 Dow as 1,000 or 0000, prompting automatic trading systems to sell after mistaking the all-time high as a catastrophic crash.

The NYSE's software initially was unable to handle the extra digit when shares of Berkshire -- billionaire Warren Buffet's investment company -- first crossed the $10,000 mark in 1992.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:21 - ID#410215)
..... Books and Markets .....

HARDCASE - Norman Spinrad

Never heard of the guy. Got some titles? I will go to the bookstore posthaste. I will be going on a seven day cruise down the Mexican coast in 2 weeks and I will need a new book or two.

Badger -

Im looking to cover my gold shorts as close to 290 as I can.

Silver down before up. Basically, I dont have a clue now, nobody does.

PGMs volatile as hell, with palladium making new highs and platinum sharing in the gains. Im looking for at least a hundred dollars in platinum. My original goal was the first to second week in June. I can still see that happening, but It would not concern me were it to take a month or two longer, for I believe it will rise far and fast.


(Wed May 27 1998 00:21 - ID#242303)
What is your model based on. The charts certainly look scary whatever you hold.

What does your model say about the POG itself?

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:22 - ID#24135)
Numeris Horrobilis
To all
If the US $ strenthens to where it was 6 weeks ago
( 1.85 dm ) , that alone would put gold at 280 and silver
at 4.80. ... ( 294 * 1.77/1.85 and 5.01 *1.77/.85 )
Now lets suppose the gold/silver ratio returned to
a level near its most recent low .. 50 .. well
that would put gold * 4.8 *50 = 240.
IF the ratio went back all the way to its recent
low of 45 ( ?? ) .. gold would go to 216.
IF the ratio made another LEG DOWN equal to the
first leg down after running out of gas in this
recent retracement .. well .. you dont want to know.
.. and neither do I.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:23 - ID#284255)
Asia at the crossroads
Many Asian stocks which are at their lows look to fail here and plummet further southwards.

What was surprising about today's decline was the swiftness with which it unfolded right near the close... and on virtually no news. The closing tick was near -900; and it was extremely broad-based.
The big question... is this the start of the bear? As yet, we can't answer.
Our Negative Leadership Composite is moving toward confirming bear market
"DISTRIBUTION" but could take up to 10 more days or longer. Meanwhile, our shorter-term Leadership Indexes are already dropping into negative territory. As we've noted, breadth has deteriorated rapidly over the past few weeks... but the key here will be to watch how breadth reacts on the next couple rally attempts. Our bet is that this deterioration continues, if not accelerates.
Our strategy is to patiently wait and let the top "prove" itself. We've been
here before; and our confidence level may be higher this time around, but there's still a lot of public exuberance behind this mania.
A note on our gold positions: these were taken in the more conservative gold stocks/funds. They should do well if the bubble does not end in a
DEflationary "popping". Nonetheless, we are watching and will exit if
dangers increase.

Interesting long term Dow chart - log scale
Showing long term support at approx 1000

(Wed May 27 1998 00:24 - ID#410215)
..... Jack .....

That is the definition of a short squeeze.

Ooooops, now everybody knows......


(Wed May 27 1998 00:25 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re the bigger the button, et cetera
That makes sense, will have to try it. I've been making do with redundant sprues. My deer had eight of them plus 8 risers and all filled except for 2 of the risers. Here are a couple of links with pics of Irish boars. ( Disclaimer: I've no commercial relationship with them, etc. In case anyone wonders what this has to do with gold or silver as an investment, there is a pun here, 'investment casting'. ) Goodnight all.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:26 - ID#153102)
@Oh Blessed Fifth Wave
Where I can buy more solid stuff. Thank God for paper pushers.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:27 - ID#24135)
He's doin the Rope-a-Dope
RJ .. save your strength for the
later rounds. He's wearing you out.
You're getting arm weary ... Well
finger weary anyway ..

(Wed May 27 1998 00:28 - ID#170211)
hyper deflation now a possibility?
The time is either here or very very near.Hang on to your hats!!!
Gold will likely experience fits and starts but I think we are on our way.
Who knows for certain,yet this seems to be what the markets are indicating.With Asia in meltdown mode,it is a matter of time before the area drags down North America.Several years of expansion makes us an easy mark.Canada already headed down the tubes.We are driftwood without CB gold.Bet we start to buy it back sometime soon or nationalize a goldmine.Europe does not stand a chance of helping anyone.They can not even aid their own.
Much greater amounts of yen,dollar and units are going to have to be created to arrest this one.$100-200 who really cares when $1000 plus would seem to be a nice starting figure.Downside from here should be swift and over with quickly.Lets see if early 98 lows are taken out shortly.If not,gidyup!!!Techs look downright ugly tonight.Lets test the metal.There is also no immediate fudamental reason to own with deflation knocking on the door.No talk of hyperdeflation though.Bet that recent meetings between AG,BC and RR were of said subject.
Here is to the most interesting economic time of this century.Gold and dollar,hard not to watch so close.
Good night,

(Wed May 27 1998 00:29 - ID#413195)
Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa finally calls a spade a spade

(Wed May 27 1998 00:29 - ID#410215)

Rob -

That is a most excellent question. I think this may run its polite course and show one to have a working knowledge of these markets and another to be pounding at the keyboard. History and the gathered here can pass judgment.

I have yet to use cut and paste.

This is the neutron bomb of Kitco

Uh Huh

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:30 - ID#24135)
I can live with that
Im rude .. You're smug .. Thats a
Question is can you use your skills
to calculate average costs for yourself
or must you rely on Yahoo .. It's YOUR

(Wed May 27 1998 00:31 - ID#253228)
Basis is time series analysis.

Sort of a take off on the old Hurst theory that the movement in the market is 97% predictable. Roughly 22% of the movement being made up cycles, aproximately 75% being trend and the balance being random movement. If you figure that on an 1100 point S&P500 then I could be off by 33 points if my work were perfect, which it is not.

This is a rough guide to the future.

I don't currently have an analysis of gold. Actually, when I originally started fooling around with this I picked Homestake Mines to test out the theory because it was noted for being a fairly cyclical stock.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:32 - ID#340302)
@ERLE...thank you for your post...
...of course, I recognize that there are novices on this forum. Moreover, I recognize that many of them are subject to the powers of persuasion upon this forum. As it stands, the most persuasive persons on this forum are those who have the best track records, i.e, the gold short crowd. They are all treated like de facto idols on this forum.
Nobody remembers that I declared a gold floor at 280, started my IDCIBM chant at 285, and inspired many to go long for profits up to 315 ( assuming they took them ) . Nobody remembers that APH, Cyclist, RJ, Oldman, etc. NEVER predicted ( at least publicly ) such a move but were essentially negative about gold's prospects at 280. Does anybody recall that I called a three day DOW/NASDAQ drop to the letter last month. No. Why? Because memories are short...because gold short biased prognosticators regularly practise revisionism upon gold bull prognosticators...and, lastly, on this forum, you are only as good as your last call. OK, I understand that. I do not normally toot my horn in market calls because, ultimately, I recognize a significant element of God-given luck is involved...especially when one is a contrarian, i.e., a gold bull in a lengthy gold bear market.

However, my contention that a short squeeze "IS IN THE WORKS" remains. Would I be stupid enough to give an exact date and open myself to insider trading accusations? Sorry...but really I know absolutely nothing about it.

Moreover, I do not feel that my revelation of an imminent short squeeze is any more irresponsible than the various categorical proclamations from the many short-side oriented technicians on this forum who boldly declare that if a certain gold price or XAU number is broken, then CERTAINLY the price of gold MUST fall....

These tech chartists also have enormous influence on the novices of this forum, often inspiring them to great fear. Given that gold is fighting 20 years of psychological debasement, then the odds favor that such short-side biased chartists have a better than 50% chance of being correct in any of their "profound" prognostications. Moreover, many of the chartists on this forum hedge their bets, declaring that if gold falls below yada yada, then it will drop so many points lower; and if it rises above yada yada, then it will rise so many points higher. Then, no matter what direction gold moves, these chartists always point to their correct call ( even though it was a hedged, non-categorical call ) . Again, memories are short. Furthermore, if you've been lucky enough to call gold a "piece of crap" for the last 20 years, then you have been correct overall...and you certainly will have terrific influence everytime you announce it is crap. Moreover, the Law of Perpetual Motion favors that you will continue to be correct so long as you make the same negative call most of the time. It's kind of like natives on an isolated island who fall subject to a witch doctor who accurately ( and luckily ) predicts two or three storms. Thereafter, that witch doctor can make almost any ominous announcement and the natives will autonomically drop to their knees, trembling in fear.

Erle, the only reason you are mad at me is that a gold short squeeze has not occurred yet. Sorry, but don't blame me! If gold had moved from 315 to 340 in a straight line ( even in the absence of such a squeeze ) from the day I posted the squeeze notice, then you probably would herald me as some genius. Even in such a case, don't praise me! Because, inevitably, luck always remains a key factor considering the multitude of variables involved in any gold move. For those who choose to remember, when gold hit 315, I received many plaudits from various posters on this forum as though I somehow were responsible. Nonsense! As I said back then, the people who deserved the praise were all those bulls who had faith in their convictions concerning the true intrinsic value of gold.

If you placed all your monies on "BLACK," and it didn't work out, then do not blame me. There are an abundance of variables at work in this gold market, some overriding others for any number of esoteric reasons. For example, if a certain group of individuals makes enquiries to COMEX concerning large purchases of their gold inventories yet, at the very same time, the Merrill Lynch hedge funds decide to plant false rumors about Belgian CB gold liquidation, then one single factor can cancel out the other. Only God knows which factor dominates.

My final words of advice: Do not look at a few weeks...look at the broader picture. Watch for an unfolding gold bull...NOT a one week path to instant riches. Then naturally, you will succeed.



(Wed May 27 1998 00:33 - ID#45173)
6pak: If the DOW is going to 10,000 it sure has a funny way
of getting there. Asia is bringing down the DOW, finally. Asian isn't getting healthy any time soon, so the DOW will keep on going down. In fact, for the first time on this site I'll make a wager. Can't bet actual $ do I'll bet credibility points instead. Let's say I start off with a total of 10 credibility points. A wrong prediction costs some points and a correct one earns some points. I'll bet 2 points that the DOW never makes it to 10,000. If I use up all my points, I have to stop making predictions and stick to babbling about guns instead. Or maybe get banished to K2. Or both.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:36 - ID#242303)
For homestake to go subterranean as your chart suggests, means POG wuld be ... ow I don't even want to hink about that.

Your forecast 300 drop in the S & P 1000 would bring it into par with it's valuation ( most articles I have read mention a 27% overvaluation ) .

OK $64,000 question. I hit the S & P may puts expecting disppointing first quarters to shake things up. They came but were shrugged off... ow

When do we get in again? When are you getting in?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:37 - ID#43460)
servehard, sorry I missed your post in the date change
( %-^] ) You mean training to invest for the long term or training to breed mules? Never mind! I'm going to bed to dream about millions of catalytic converters, each one with its little bit of PGMs.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:38 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

I fairly invented the rope a dope on this forum and have used it to some good effect, yes? The cool thing, is that I have to research all this stuff anyway, it is my job.

And, no. Im not tired.. or proud.

PS -

Where may the heated depths of the Merensky Reef be? For it is under those very reefs that PGMs are being mined underwater. You thought I forgot?

Is this a real place? Are the depths heated? Is the snorkeling good? What does Russell say about it? Are thongs to be viewed in and about these reefs?

These are the important questions


(Wed May 27 1998 00:42 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel ....

A short squeeze cannot happen in a market not in fundamental shortage.

There is more gold on earth that at any point in history

You do not boost confidence in your words when your words contradict reality.


(Wed May 27 1998 00:44 - ID#216415)
@How do you do with red?
If it's a good color for you, this is your lucky day. Haven't seen so much red in months, since October, maybe?

mmmmmmMmmmmm. . . . just contemplating the PPT taking on the morning markets. Will they act? Will they hold the for? Or will it finally fall? It's the Anaconda market, see the A/D line in the recent link posted by SilverBaron ( poker players take note ) .

(Wed May 27 1998 00:44 - ID#215379)
Deflation, RJ
In a defaltion, all commodities go down, even Platinum, right ?

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:45 - ID#24135)
I get you and Jims mixed up ..
It was YOU with the wiggly forecast.
And you use time series ..
Arent programs available ??
Please expand when you have time ..
it fascinates..

(Wed May 27 1998 00:46 - ID#247273)
What caused this
downturn in Asian markets, across the board? Was there a revelation or trigger? Just last week, the Nikkei was climbing, and now, we see the drop. Is the PPT on holiday? Hi Tech stocks in US could be the cause, however, something seems to be brewing that is not widely disseminated.

Any Ideas?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:48 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Also -

You disagreed vehemently with my post that gold would limp to 315 and fall to 280 by June.

I even posted this again better than a month ago.

It would seem to be pretty accurate, yes?

Also, also -

You called for gold to hit 330 very soon and argued loudly that it would not fall below 310.

Remember Cut and Paste.


(Wed May 27 1998 00:49 - ID#335190)
I agree the Dow will not see 10,000. I have used up my 10 points of credibility points, many months ago. I have made wrong predictions, that have cost $'s, Canadian $'s. I will stick to babble, not about guns, but history.

Take Care.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:49 - ID#284255)
OZ markets slipping faster
All Ords now down 52 points
A huge drop for OZ
And still falling


(Wed May 27 1998 00:49 - ID#153102)
I think you must be tired.
Your last jab was an air shot.
Equating a piece of paper promising to get gold out of the ground with gold in the hand.
Somebody is buying time by selling gold. Just my opinion.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:51 - ID#342376)
If this global economic crisis deepens, wouldn't it be a perfect opportunity for the ECB to announce a high amount of Gold Reserves for the Euro and "CASH" in on the instability? I was thinking this currency crisis is like playing Old Maid, everyone wants to dump theirs but it's the US that will be holding it at the end.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:55 - ID#153102)
@Getting Liquid
Is what makes stock markets go down.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:55 - ID#242303)
@John Disney
In yur op. what percentage of SA mines are losing money at POG 290. I guess the recent drop of the Rand helps them somewhat.

Rangy took another hit today and is flirting with lows. What's their situation.

Of course if POG hits the levels mentioned in your Numeris Horribilis, it matters little what you own it's all going up in fire ( till half the mines go belly-up or yk2 or... )

(Wed May 27 1998 00:56 - ID#335190)
S.Korea union workers down tools as scheduled

SEOUL, May 27 ( Reuters ) - More than 80,000 South Korean union workers at Hyundai Motor Co and other work sites downed tools from 1 p.m. ( 0400 GMT ) on Wednesday as scheduled, a union leader said.

"All our member workers at 45 worksites went on strike from 1 p.m. as scheduled," said a leader of the Korean Metal Workers Federation, the core arm of the militant union umbrella group which called the strike.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:57 - ID#233199)
@RJ Ok you're good, so whither now gold?

(Wed May 27 1998 00:58 - ID#253228)
I really am not the best person to get advice from. I can only tell you I am short 6000 shares of Homestake and have the balance of my funds in cash, except that I have some July 10 puts on Homestake.

Last summer I took five trades on Homestake options, some calls, some puts, and in each trade I either 2 x or 3x my money. Each time I took the proceeds and tried a SPX option and lost it all. Had one bomb trade early last fall on HM and then one really good 10x put trade on that big move down.

Until very recently I have not been as happy with my S&P500 work as with that on Homestake. As a consequence I have stayed away from SPX puts, and while I have been temped in the last weeks to try a trade there, I figure I will give myself a little more time to be sure of that model.

I had posted a chart a while back showing the oscillations above and below the trend line for the S&P500 going back to 1958. It is rare for it to get even 30% away from the trend. In 1987 it reached 40% above which could not be supported by the energy of the waves so it crashed just as would such a gigantic wave in the ocean. A more normal height is 30% above or below to generate a reversal. You can be fairly sure that stock purchases now are super risky. You cannot be sure that my projected path downward is reliable.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 00:58 - ID#24135)
THE D(isney) - FILES
For RJ ..
The merensky reef that you refer to is an extension
of the Great Barrier Reef off the Queensland coast.
Platinum and Gold are sometimes found there .. usually
when coins have fallen from the bathers of unlucky
Wicked Apartheid Blinded Afrikaaners STOLE the name
of this beautiful natural wonder and applied it to
the Van Der Merve reef in South Africa to make it sound
more attractive to unfortunate investors. Some
particularly dopey Farmers have been trying to swim
and fish on this reef for years .. might I add with
less than satisfactory results.

(Wed May 27 1998 00:59 - ID#284255)
There is more gold on the earth than ever before?

I would have thought there was the same ammount.
Just more above ground.
( :-^ )

(Wed May 27 1998 01:00 - ID#340302)
@RJ...always good to hear from my old buddy...
...again, I defer to your superior knowledge of Plat and Palladium. However, based on my layman's knowledge, my simple Yale degree in Economics, and a fairly recent conversation with a very canny, extremely successful businessman in the international imp./exp. biz, then I see no reason to categorize Plat and Palladium as anything other than mere commodities.

If a pure deflation slams commodities and forces liquidity crises upon the S.A. and Russian goverments, then I would expect these governments will "find" Plat and Palladium in sufficient quantities to dump upon the markets and depress prices from current lofty levels. Moreover, assuming various American corporations have been accumulating stockpiles of the stuff ( and it would make a great deal of sense for them to do so ) , then I would expect that the alleged shortage is manufactured by paper traders analogous to the manner in which an alleged oversupply of gold has been concocted by the very same paper traders ( $97 million of eligible gold in COMEX inventories seems pretty paltry and "squeezable" from my humble perspective ) .



(Wed May 27 1998 01:00 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

You mean no thongs?

I won't go there

Platinum be damned

(Wed May 27 1998 01:01 - ID#410215)
..... Nicky! .....

Thank you for the laugh, there have been few today.


John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 01:05 - ID#24135)
Not so bad
For Weazened ..
recent rand fall is like an 15 $
rise in POG. I'd guess 10/15 % MAX.
Most are hedged and they have world's
lowest average cost. NA mines are
going to feel it .. their AVERAGE
costs are VERY HIGH and they have no
currency effects to save them.
That notwithstanding, I wouldnt buy
them with gold falling in a heap. And
rangy is no better than anything else.

(Wed May 27 1998 01:09 - ID#284255)
It is truly hard to swin through this sea of F's

Perhaps my thongs are too large - #12's

Humour, good company and a few verses - or a few glasses
Makes the days grime a bit shinier.

If I were short it would not be a moot point. aaarrrggghhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed May 27 1998 01:09 - ID#242303)
Thanks for your postings. Ilook forward to your comments as things unfold.

Business week qoutes Abbey Cohen as seeing another 8-10 % in this market. Though she did mention that Japan and inflation could be the wild cards. The latter seems dead so it is Japan and SE asia which might start the fire.

I got really frightened when a well respected invetor friend who has already doubled his large portfolio in the last 2.5 years and is still bullish told me that there is no 'fundamental' p/e that we have exceeded for stocks. They just have to be priced according to inflation, alternative investments available and the amount of money chasing them! Sounds like delusion creeping in.

I wish you had more confidence in your S & P charts. It goes againstmy grain as a limping beaten-up gold investor to now cross the rails and take a put against HM

(Wed May 27 1998 01:10 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Perhaps you could address some of the questions posed?

Perhaps your buddy knows.

Certainly more than the largest refiner of PGMs on earth.

He is one canny fellow

But since it is you proclamation I am responding to, it is you opinions I would like to hear. I am very interested in the thought process that goes into to publicly declaring that PGMs are dead. I feel I can learn something here. I am assuming you have other reasons than your friend's assertion. You may feel comfortable investing with those credentials, but most here are searching for something with a little more substance. Perhaps you have the answers to some of the dozen or so questions I posed about this market? Any one of which would seem to be a key piece of the puzzle in declaring PGMs dead.

I yearn for facts. Feed me.


(Wed May 27 1998 01:14 - ID#248180)
PGM's are not Mere Commodities they are also a
Store of wealth - Strategic Metals - a Political metal along side of Gold.

(Wed May 27 1998 01:16 - ID#410215)
..... I'm getting too fast at this .....

It ain't fair
(Wed May 27 1998 01:18 - ID#434108)
the straw that breaks the camel's back, and strikes the match - that starts:_______

5/26/98 -- 6:23 PM

Traders attack Pakistani stock exchange

KARACHI, Pakistan ( AP ) - Pakistan's stock exchange took a beating
Tuesday, literally.

Several dozen securities traders smashed windows and computers at the
Karachi Stock Exchange, protesting a decision to computerize all
trading. The demonstration forced the market to close at midday.

The exchange's board of directors announced Monday they will ban
floor trading, putting about 2,000 traders out of work, officials said.

The stock market has been battered in recent weeks by fears that
Pakistan will test a nuclear device and incur damaging economic
sanctions. An increasingly nasty feud between the government and the
country's largest private power company has also hurt trading.

Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may
not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(Wed May 27 1998 01:18 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter:
Mr Clinton on Y2K taken from todays briefings
-- overcome the disruption which we face with the
computers as millennium starts April 1, '99. That will disrupt
all --
PRESIDENT CLINTON: Well, let me say that we're very
concerned about that, Sarah, And I asked John Koskinen, formerly a
deputy at OMB and before that, a man who had a very distinguished
career in the private sector, to come back into public service to
supervise and coordinate our efforts to deal with the computer 2000
It's not something that grabs the headlines everyday but
it is, in fact, a profound challenge, not only for the United States
but for every country -- which is every country now -- that has
extensive reliance on computers. And there are a lot of very complex
questions. There are computer hook-ups where people at both ends
have computers that can be programmed to move easily to 2000, but
there's something in the connection in between which won't. This is
a very complicated problem.
Interestingly enough, we discussed it in some detail at
the G-8 meeting in England recently, and I can tell you that we are
working very hard on it. We're working very hard, first of all, to
monitor the progress of every government agency to see that they're
ready, and some are doing better than others because some have more
profound challenges than others. And, secondly, we want to do what
we can to be supportive of the private sector in the United States
and their efforts to make these adjustments. But it is a very big
And I would urge -- since you've asked the question, I
would urge everyone in America who hears this exchange to make sure
that they have done everything they can do within their own business
sectors to be ready for this.
And we also agreed, by the way, when I was in England to
work with other countries so that we can help share information and
do everything we can do make sure that when the new millennium
starts, it's a happy event and not a cyberspace headache.
We should bounce from here, this was the capitulation day I was looking for, but stronger than I thought. The strength of the bounce will determine whether we are in a bull market or we have one more leg down to 52 a lot of t/a ers are calling for. I was buying mining shares today.
Looking at the Mexican Peso chart, just broke out of a 4th wave triangle and is soaring to a fifth wave top. Latin America is next in the FIATSCO wave.
CRB may have had a capitulation day and could get a bounce across the board on commodities. We'll see if Gold decouples.
I believe we have the start of a descent correction going and possibly the start of the first leg of the big kahuna.

To All, Interesting thoughts...
Samuel M Robbins Robbins Planning Company
300 Prince Street, West Newton Ma 02165 ( 617 ) 527-1301
The dominoes are falling. The death spiral of competitive devaluations has
How all bull markets end:
All bull markets in history have ended with a combination of monetary,
banking, money, or currency crisis or all of the above. In this particular
case it started last year in Asia. The politicians blamed the speculators
and hedge fund operators, but it was the locals who foresaw that there was a
global glut coming which would not be kind to their currencies. They sold
their local currencies and bought U.S. securities.
It seems that the business cycle has not yet been repealed. It is now
maturing all over the globe. We have been moving into a new kind of world
where profits will be harder to earn and competition will grow fiercer.
That's why the mega-mergers are taking place. This is one of the many signs
that we are in the final stages of this record boom. Accelerating foreign
buying of American stocks also is a traditional part of a stock market top.
As the Asian tigers compete among themselves for global business with their
devalued currencies, they take business from those countries refusing to
devalue, such as China or the U.S. Thi Chinese have been trying to ) prove
that they now have a stable currency. After all they started the whole
vicious cycle of devaluations four years ago with a 35% devaluation. Thus it
is only a matter of time before they meet the competition one more time and
again devalue. Hong Kong is now part of China, so the HK dollar will devalue
too. China has recently announced that corporate profits arc off 83% from a
year ago. They must be putting the world on notice that a devaluation has to
be coming, probably after the first anniversary of the Hong-Kong merger.
China has a long-term goal of making their currency a gold-backed,
world-reserve currency. To that effect they buy all gold produced in the
country. So they hate to have a history of devaluation, but they must bow to
reality. How the other Asian Tigers will retaliate is problematic, but
another round of devaluations will probably follow. All this devaluation
makes dollar-valued goods all the more expensive and uncompetitive.
Asian tigers also compete with Brazil and other South American manufacturers
so that competitive devaluations must follow there in due course. Meanwhile
Russia is suffering extreme inflation and will probably devalue the ruble
again to meet the competition. Meanwhile President Yeltsin talks publicly of
a gold-backed ruble to solve the problem. Like the Chinese, The Russians buy
as much gold as they can lay their hands on, all things considered..
Now that Asian currencies have collapsed, ( while gold prices have increased
proportionately in local currencies ) , Asiatic manufacturers are hell-bent on
exporting goods that are cheaper than ever to American consumers. The
trouble is that this does not take place in a vacuum.
For there is Japan. In the late eighties, the U.S. banking system was in a
state of collapse because "non-performing" ( i.e bad ) loans represented 5%
of bank assets. We were concerned because that wiped out the banker's
equity. In Japan things are three times as bad as ours wire, and we have a
more robust economy. Japanese non-performing loans now represent 15% of bank
assets. It is clear that the whole Japanese banking system is going to
collapse, not just individual banks. There is already a flight out of yen
and into ) the dollar. The end result will be a large devaluation of the Yen,
reducing prices of exported cars. My seasoned informant at the Curubian
embassy in Tokyo observes that the Japanese people are tough, stubborn and
resilient, that they have amassed vast savings with which to meet all
emergencies, come what may. They will not take the competitive wars lying
down and will do whatever is necessary to survive.
The Japanese were not allowed after WWII to own gold. They were told that if
they wanted reserves, they should hold dollars. All foreign holdings of
dollars reached 650 billion a year ago, but that has now declined to about
600 billions. The Japanese government is believed to have been a major
seller all year in order to sustain the cost of government programs there.
Meanwhile on the other side of the globe, the Euro is gradually taking its
place in the international currency markets. Europeans hope to make the Euro
an alternative to the dollar. They plan on backing the Euro with as much
gold as possible to make it trustable, but as little as possible to allow it
be a competitive currency with the USA and others. The Asian tigers are
talking about establishing a monetary bloc and an Asiatic currency of their
own .
The problem is that all foreign governments and all foreigners are swimming
in a sea of dollars. As they start to diversify away from dollars, the
dollar will begin to decline. As they do more business in their own
currencies, they will need less dollars. As the U.S. slows down and imports
less, it will need less dollars. As the dollar declines, interest rates go
up. As rates go up, the stock market goes down.
As the "almighty dollar" goes down, the world will search for alternatives.
At that point they may discover gold, which might represent good value.
After all it has been declining for 18 years. It will not take much selling
of U.S. stocks and treasuries to ignite a roaring bull market in gold. Ah
you say the central banks will sell. It is now turning out that most central
bank sales were purchased by other central banks. Central bankers may
consider gold the enemy of paper money, but they are not so dumb as to sell
it all. The days of central bank sales is coming to an end. They have
finally figured out that since 1968 when gold began trading in a free market
it has returned more than Treasury bills, in both real and nominal terms.
Gold appreciated 7.4% per year since 1968. Treasuries yielded 4.9% per year
since 1968. Subtract 3.5% inflation from both numbers and gold yielded a
real return of 3.9% per year over the last 30 years versus a real return of
1.4% per year for U.S. T-bills over the same period. If it now begins to
appear that there are more U.S. dollars than people all around the world
need. As we are running bigger and bigger trade deficits which put more
dollars in foreigners' hands all the time, then how many dollars does the
world or this country need ?
It is obvious that as the global boom slows down The world will need less
dollars to do business. Perhaps we ourselves need less dollars. "M-3"- the
broad definition of money- has been growing since 1960 at an average annual
rate of growth of 7.8% per year. I use 1960 as a reference point to
eliminate the effects of WWII. Our economy has been growing at a rate of
about 3.5% per year during this same period. Perhaps our money supply should
only grow as fast as the economy needs it.
That 7.8% rate of growth has created an M-3 today of 5.5 trillion dollars.
At a 3.5% growth rate, today's M-3 would have been $1.2 trillion-78% less.
We have printed 4.7 times as much money as we really have needed over the
last 30 years!!!!!!! Little wonder since Nixon closed the gold window in
1971 that the dollar has declined from 350 yen to the dollar to 125 today.
Little wonder that the dollar has declined from 3.5 German marks to the
dollar to 1.75 today. Even though a pending collapse of the yen will take it
down again, the Japanese will fight like a steer to hold the line as much as
possible, probably at 160 to the dollar. I find it hard to believe the
dollar will decline 78%, but I find it easy to believe it will decline alot
more than people expect.
In other words, the rally in the dollar of the last few years has been the
result of the flight out of foreign currencies combined with a desire to
participate in the final fling of our stock markets. ( Foreigners buy blue
chips name brand stocks. ) But at some point people are going to weary of
seeing their dollars decline in value.
people think gold is simply for inflation protection. It is also a
protection against devaluation. The flight out of paper assets means that
the ingredients of a great crash and a great depression are at hand. I have
been saying this for some years now. It is still true, despite the fact that
most investors arc not listening. It is impossible to tell when they will
start listening. It is impossible to time a world-wide cataclysm with
precision. The dominoes have started falling in Asia, and will not stop
until they have taken all currencies down. Most investors are planning on
selling out just one minute before the top. Obviously that treasured spot is
reserved only for the lucky few. The majority of investors will get badly
burned on the way down.
Ah but you argue that the automatic investors who are making monthly
investments out of their paychecks are sufficient to sustain the stock and
bond markets into eternity. First please recognize that these baby-boomers
are desperate. They have finally figured out that they are not going to get
any social security. So they are rushing private plans for their retirement.
Let's take a look at what has really been happening in social security by
listening to "Sam's Fable":
Many years ago, long before social security, a farmer and his wife decided
to save for their old age. They agreed to put aside a certain amount of
money in a cookie jar every week. This proceeded for some years, but as the
four kids became an increasing drain, there were weeks when they could not
make ends meet. The wife then took some money from the cookie jar. Being an
honest woman she put a note in the cookie jar confirming the amount she had
borrowed. This process continued for years. When they retired, all they had
were a pile of promises to pay. Little wonder President Clinton wants the
suckers to put more money into the cookie jar.
This is why the investment rush is proceeding. After each downside
correction, the baby boomers will "buy each dip" as they have been taught to
do. Until the big one. Then all of a sudden they will realize that they are
55 years old, that they arc playing with their future, that they don't want
to lose it all and they will sell out in panic at the bottom.
My best judgment is that the massive, over-valuation that comprises the
present market top will end in a double top. A decline now, followed by
another top in July or August. The ratio of advances to declines has been
slipping for over a year. That is a distant early warning if ever there was
From then on, all the possible good news for years to come is in the
inflated price of most stocks. The crash should proceed for a year or two,
then rally, and then finally reach bottom in another year or two. It will
take that long to unwind all the excess in the marketplace. If history is
any guide, this market has all the earmarks of the 1720 South Sea Bubble in
England.Until then, there had been a slow gradual increase in prosperity.
Everyone thought that there were great riches in South America to be
exploited. All sorts of companies issued stock in the mania. Stock prices in
"Exchange" Alley" in London, generally rose 10 times their issue price, but
in two years fell 90% from their peak valuation.
If you can find a few worthwhile stocks that have already suffered their own
private crash and depression, invest in them to hedge yourself, and build
Very Truly yours,
Samuel Robbins

(Wed May 27 1998 01:19 - ID#290118)
I have friends who are programmers.
One is, now was, a retired COBOL programmer.
One will soon be a freshly minted B.S. in Computer Science.
They will soon be able to namer their price - take it or leave it.
I am advising both to demand half upfront in GOLD & SILVER coin.
The father of the spring grad looked at me like I was another one of those NUTS! - though I think he will come around when the GOLD reflects from his son's eyes.
Come January of 2000 we will see who was NUTS!

(Wed May 27 1998 01:21 - ID#253228)
John Disney_A, and then to my bed.
I really am not all that familiar with available programs for time series analysis. I have my own programs for calculating trends using a number of different formulas ( I then pick the one I think best fits ) , for removing the trend from the data and for subtracting/adding waves.

I bought a spectral analysis program from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles ( in Pennsylvania ) . They also sold me some compiled programs to do an array analysis. The former worked OK ( it just gives possible cycles ) , but the array analysis just would not work. I finally talked them into giving me the code so I could fix it myself and I also made some significant modifications to it so that it would do more what I wanted.

They do have a canned package which will identify major cycles, but I doubt it will make you money. It can find maybe 15 or 20 cycles; my projections are made up of over 400 cycles, so you can guess that the fit you get with their canned deal may not even get you in the ball park.

I would say that all "technical analysis" is an attempt to find the key ( in my case the combination ) to the vault. I doubt that there is any canned program that is such a key. I also doubt that any time series analysis type programs are designed to handle fractional periods.

(Wed May 27 1998 01:22 - ID#286224)
@RJ: It's wither then?

(Wed May 27 1998 01:24 - ID#340302)
@RJ...incidentally, my friend...
...just to give you a little better perspective on the absurdly low level of COMEX gold inventories...

...TITANIC, the movie, cost about $200 million -- or twice as much as the entire $97 million dollar eligible COMEX gold inventory.

In other words, Paramount and 20th Century Fox could have wiped out the eligible inventory for the cost of one feature film.

Just how much real physical gold backs the 3 million ounces trading on paper daily?

Is it any wonder the Swiss, Belgians, and Dutch are talking down the value of gold? Just how much gold is really inside those vaults? What if there were a spontaneous rush to take physical delivery versus paper certificates.




(Wed May 27 1998 01:31 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

You wrote:

"If a pure deflation slams commodities and forces liquidity crises upon the SA and Russian governments, then I would expect these governments will "find" Plat and Palladium in sufficient quantities to dump upon the markets and depress prices from current lofty levels."


Where will they find this metal? In the mines that are at capacity now?

What will cause this? And why would they wait until a crisis? Are the highest prices in history not enough of an incentive to sell? I am still confused about your reasons for believing this will happen. Has this ever happened in history? Are we charting brand new territory? Trailblazing seems a dangerous way to invest.

Seems awful iffy in the face of the most severe shortage of PGMs in history. Who knows, maybe you will get lucky. I dont need luck. Mathematics, economics, and the love of Jesus in my baby blue eyes, will stand me in good stead for this market.



Actually, my eyes are not blue... I stole that line from Clint Eastwood in , "the Guantlet" ( to that date, perhaps the loudest movie ever made )

(Wed May 27 1998 01:32 - ID#340302)
@RJ....I really do not want to get into this kids' game...
...of who makes better short-term metals calls. I am not the God of the metals markets, that's for sure ( see my earlier post to JTF from last night ) .

I will gladly hand the award to you since you seem so eager to possess it. Let your disciples revel in the lucre they are about to gain through coat-tailing upon your amazing perspicacity.

Ultimately, my main disagreement with you is your philosophy that gold is in extreme oversupply....whereas I believe that, relative to paper wealth created over the past decade, it is in extreme short supply.

If a mere nominal fraction of stock market and/or bond market wealth were converted to gold purchases, then I am categorically certain of my evaluation of the global gold market would be proven correct.



(Wed May 27 1998 01:34 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Can we finish this discussion about PGMs before we move onto gold?

I am very interested in you reasons for declaring PGMs dead.

I am simply responding to your post earlier today

It raised questions in my mind

I am searching for answers

Can you help?


(Wed May 27 1998 01:37 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Energy & Energy Service

Computers, Electronics & Software Sector Chart

(Wed May 27 1998 01:37 - ID#340302) answer your previous question....
...if Plat and Palladium were truly in desperate short supply, then why is Plat down $4.00 tonight and Palladium is down $1.50 ( last I looked anyway ) ?

Wouldn't there be a straight vertical line upward to the heavens?

Please enlighten me, O Master.



(Wed May 27 1998 01:38 - ID#287358)

(Wed May 27 1998 01:40 - ID#20136)
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

636,926 0 0 0 0 636,926
325,015 0 2,572 -2,572 0 322,443
961,941 0 2,572 -2,572 0 959,369

Silver data didn't come in correctly.


1,278,751 0 91,480,274


Gold 63,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 8,000

(Wed May 27 1998 01:40 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Now that last post seemed to get personal.

You made a statement here

An unequivocal one

I am interested in your reasons for this statement

And I am interested in your source of facts

Or are you now saying that you do not believe

We should "Look out below" in PGMs?

For if you are changing your mind, we may put this to rest because we are now in entire agreement regarding this matter.

If you still believe PGMs will fall

Could you explain your reasons?

I have yet to read anything that would be considered anything beyond supposition.

Or are there facts I am not aware of?

Are there facts you are not aware of?

Perhaps we could lay this to rest now


(Wed May 27 1998 01:41 - ID#340302)
@RJ...oh, you are using hyperbole, sir...
...I never declared PGM's dead....I simply stated, "Look Out Below!"

And I made that statement on the hypothesis that we are about to enter a pure deflation...something that I personally believe will NOT happen. I believe we are going into a stagflation ( which is good for most commodities ) .

However, today, with virtually all commodities showing lots of weakness, then the pure deflation hypothesis is not completely inconceivable.

Only God really knows, yes?



(Wed May 27 1998 01:46 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Again, you answer a question with a question. I have answered yours, yet you are silent on mine. Do you have information to back up your contention that PGMs are dead?

Perhaps you have not been following these markets close enough. I have gone into some detail about the mechanics of the current PGM market. That is right, you have been on vacation. How could you be expected to know what these markets are doing?

I am surprised you would even pose the question that if these metals are in such shortage, palladium fell ALL THE WAY TO $350 PER OUNCE!

Look out below.

Perhaps we could now get down to a serious discussion on your PGM Warning

I am eager.


(Wed May 27 1998 01:54 - ID#340302)
@RJ...just simple macro-economic analysis, RJ....
...if America is going into a pure deflation, then PGM's will not be spared. Aggregate demand will fall as demand for computers, cars, etc. plummets. Supply will materialize as governments desperately seek to raise liquidity and dump stockpiles. ALL GOVERNMENTS MAINTAIN SURPLUS STOCKPILES OF VITAL COMMODITIES. It would be naive of you to imagine otherwise.

Again, let me restate...I believe we are entering a stagflation which should benefit commodities.

Again, I is a belief, not a divine proclamation.



(Wed May 27 1998 01:55 - ID#404246)
RJ - Book titles.
Other similar books:

Mindswap by Robert Sheckley - 1960s

Wasp by Eric Frank Russell - 1960s

My favorite Norman Spinrad:

Iron Maiden - 1970s

The Void Capain's Tale - 1970s

Short Stories by Spinrad:

The Star-Spangled future - 1970s

These are not like HST.... nothing could be, but they are very unique especially Mindswap, Wasp and Iron Maiden. I also thought they were quite funny. Irom Maiden is a spoof on bigotry -- mutants vs the true men, so close to reality it hurts. You will have to go to a used book store and be very lucky to find any of them.

Good Reading......

(Wed May 27 1998 01:56 - ID#263133)
I would like to lightly jump into this free for all on the anticipated direction of PGM's and respectfully ask RJ to give some projections on the Platinum price level, say over the next six months. RJ seems to be fairly good at making such predictions but has refrained, from doing so of late. I too wish that Platinum would make an upward move but, and even though reason should dictate such amove, how can believe the production vs usage figures being touted are correct in light of Platinums inability to make and sustain gains. Please, someone provide some meaningful insight so I can sleep again nites.

(Wed May 27 1998 01:58 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Could you confirm that you will answer my queries?

Or will you let the facts stand as they are?

We entered into this discussion regarding your statement with a common desire to grow and learn. I'm am interested in which set of facts you used to declare that:

Date: Tue May 26 1998 15:09

farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the Platinum/Palladium Markets... ) ID#340302:

...with Russia's equities markets falling into the toilet on almost a daily basis, then it will not be long before sheer desperation drives the Russians to offer Plat and Palladium for whatever price they can get.

Since nobody can afford to buy computers or cars in Asia, then there is the final nail in the coffin for Plat and Palladium.

Look Out Below!




You are right. It was foolish of me to read the word "dead" when faced with the statement, "the final nail in the coffin". My mistake. You did not say dead.

Now, about your reasons for the above, I am truly interested in your thought process.



They can afford 75% more platinum jewelry in China. Must be the rest of Aisa.. the big part, that you are referring to.

(Wed May 27 1998 02:00 - ID#287358)
Not good to pass along rumor or hearsay, and then say words such as
"count on it," and "everything is in place now," and give us the impression you know what the *dork* you are talking about is *TRUTH*.

I have six dogs. The puppy wrestles and plays with the other, older dogs, and teases and cajoles them, and sucks out their energy. It is
good for dogs. When you get someone hooked into playing with you,
you write more and more, just like a puppy, playing, and sucking the
energy from the top dog.

Many of us do not like to see RJ spend any energy on you. That is why
we ask of him, "Why bother?"

Who you are speaks so loudly that I cannot recall any accurate gold
calls you've made, or most anything else except yadda yadda yadda.
Give your ego and your typing hand a rest, already.
(Wed May 27 1998 02:01 - ID#434108)
another match is struck.......

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 02:03 - ID#24135)
Fashion Trends...
To RJ ..
All of farfel's arguments can safely be ignored ..
However .. spoke to swiss guy last night who said
new report out which said demand for ALL metals
far east is off well beyond most outlandish pessimistic
expectations.. Assume this includes Platinum since large
chunk demand Japanese jewelery based .. New trend in
Japanese jewelery said to be Rice-on-a-string to
replace pearls and pressed tofu to replace platinum

(Wed May 27 1998 02:04 - ID#340302) your little homily...
...for the gold shorts who spread the false rumor about Belgian gold sales when gold was at 315...not on a Kitco forum mind you...but a rumor disseminated to the entire world by Reuters no less, then later denied by the Belgian CB governor.

Still, in spite of your sermonizing attitude, I still love you.



(Wed May 27 1998 02:05 - ID#290118)
Survival - After Y2K I can get by for a few years
without electricity
without telephones
without television
without grocery stores
without natural gas or propane
without an automobile or truck

I have adequate food
and lots of toilet paper
and the means to defend myself.
I will have lots of books to read
and lots of time with which to read them
and lots of time to relect on the wisdom therein.
Now I must find a friend with which to share the above.

I have been told to get a life.
In nineteen months I may have a chance to do that.
When the facade of civilization is stripped away and
I ( and hopefully we ) see clearly the meaning of life.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 02:07 - ID#24135)
STOP >>>
Look RJ ..
Instead of stuffing around with
farfelberger, why dont you use that
energy to find me some CLIENTS.

(Wed May 27 1998 02:07 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel and bej .....
Bej -

See my prior posts. Sorry there are a lot this eve, I'm trying to learn.

I am looking for at least $100 out of platinum in the next few months ( much sooner I think )

Palladium will make new highs but will fall to its historic levels after the industrial exodus out of palladium and back into platinum.


Farfel -

Even a high school debating coach wouldnt let you get away with your conduct in this debate. I ask specific questions, you change the subject. Could we complete this discussion? Do you believe PGMs will fall? Why?

These are reasonable questions to ask given the vehemence with which you speak of nails and coffins.

Or do you now believe that these metals are in shortage and VERY likely to go way up?

Please, lets settle this.


(Wed May 27 1998 02:08 - ID#340302)
@RJ...I stand by the post you quote...
...which is taken out of context with no reference to my previous and ensuing posts.

In the event of a PURE DEFLATION, then PGM's will be slaughtered. YES!

Yet, once again, I will restate...I believe we are heading for stagflation in which case PGM's should do fine. Are you happy?

( But hey, I could be wrong...Wall Street keeps talking up the pure deflation hypothesis ) .

Yes, indeedy.



(Wed May 27 1998 02:12 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

The figures I am using are only a couple weeks old. They take into full account the Asian situation. Demand in China has more than offset demand in the rest of Asia ( the big part, with all the people ) About this Swiss Guy..Did you meet him at a cocktail party?

I think we are all learning tonight.

Damn, I make it look easy


(Wed May 27 1998 02:12 - ID#340302)
@RJ...anyway, I've had a good time talking with you...
...tonight...but all good things must come to an end.

I find you to be a most interesting character.

Yes, indeedy.

I do.



(Wed May 27 1998 02:13 - ID#335379)
Hello Squirrel
Is anyone up at KBandG?

(Wed May 27 1998 02:15 - ID#340302)
@DISNEY...glad to see you got back that old sense of humor...
...Farfelburger...uuuuum, sounds yummy to me!



(Wed May 27 1998 02:17 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Farfel -

I posted the quote in its entirety.

Exactly as you did

You denied speaking of death

I guess in the strictest sense

That is true.

That you are now off to bed,

Does this mean you have changed your mind?

Or will you explain your facts?

I am still eager

If you are too tired this evening

We can continue tomorrow, yes?



(Wed May 27 1998 02:19 - ID#290118)
Pardon me for asking - I am truly in the dark ;-
HARDCASE - who is HST?

(Wed May 27 1998 02:19 - ID#426265)
Looking at the monthly chart of gold, in my opinion things dont look so bad yet. We even could go down a few more dollars and that should do it. So if we have a turnaround say tomorrow we could have the beginning of a long way North.

(Wed May 27 1998 02:21 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

My energy is boundless. Haven't you seen?

I thought this was a good time to converse

With a prominent member of this forum

People even ask him questions

However, when I ask

I get no answers

Can you spare any clients?


(Wed May 27 1998 02:23 - ID#340302)
@RJ...oh, I forgot to answer one of your questions...
...the PGM's are definitely NOT in shortage. Russian government is finally learning how to play the capitalist game effectively though.

IMHO from a layman.



(Wed May 27 1998 02:23 - ID#410215)
.... The finest writer of our generation .....

HST = Hunter S. Thompson

My favorite writer


Thanks for the titles, I will dig them up.

(Wed May 27 1998 02:24 - ID#410215)
..... This is like firing an M16 .....

On Full Automatic


(Wed May 27 1998 02:28 - ID#410215)
..... farfel .....

OK, good start

Lets proceed:

So PGMs are not in shortage? Where are they?

Why did the Russians not sell at the highest price in history?

Hey! Deja Vu! Weve had that question already tonight. No answer though.

Im patient.



(Wed May 27 1998 02:29 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....


You forgot to answer ALL of my questions.

We have time, I would like to learn.


(Wed May 27 1998 02:30 - ID#410215)
..... Rat a Tat Tat Tat .....

Rat a Tat like that........

(Wed May 27 1998 02:31 - ID#410215)
..... Oh My .....

The barrel is heating up!

(Wed May 27 1998 02:34 - ID#340302)'s a new word for you: CARTEL...
...constraint of supply by one and/or a few producers controlling a particular commodity...

De Beers, OPEC, etc....they all use these techniques to force the price of a controlled commodity upward.

Russians are new to the game of they are just beginning to employ the techniques of an effective cartel.

There's your answer, my importunate go get some sleep so you
can spread some rumors about a CB gold sale tomorrow on the MONEX trading floor.

( Just kidding? )

Hasta Luego.


(Wed May 27 1998 02:35 - ID#434108)
deflation = gold's bull market (2/2/98)

A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his
fellow 'founding fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever
allow the banking system to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation; their children
will one day wake up homeless on the continent
their fathers conquered."

The world's financial and monetary systems may
be likened to a gigantic teetering circus-tent. An
when the tent finally collapses. It will not be the
center-post that goes first; it will be the side-posts;
and even the stakes."

The "stakes" are the Asian Tiger economies. The
"side-posts" are the most important trading
partners of the U.S. This includes the strategic
national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The
"center-post" is the U.S. economy, including its
stock markets.

The "tent" is the world-economy, built on a
mountain of artificial money and credit, created out
of thin air, by a politically engineered and
dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has
taken generations, to perfect this art and master
this tune, that plays to the drum-beat of billions of
dollars of false wealth created per week.

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to
counterfeit money, including by governments or

And now what: Gold going up?in the midst of
spreading Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the Kitco site for about a year
now; and it is evident from the discussions there,
that most of us are still deluded by, and caught up
in, the artificial Santa-Clause Economy built on the
BIG LIE: money and credit created out of nothing.
This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent "economic summer" that may last for
generations. All the while the masses
misperceptions grow, while the money-masters of
power, in the world, in control of interest rates, of
credit availability, and of the volume of money
flooding the world.they thus become economic
dictators in hiding.ruling over the ultimate value
of the money you earn, spend, invest, and save for
a 'rainy-day" or retirement, or the kids'' education.

The world over central banks have evolved with
their governments blessings into a quiet, awesome
club of collusion and unbridled power. They hold
in their hands the destinies of nations, and the fate
of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th century
banker of England said: "Give me control of a
nation's money, and I care not who makes the

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as
deflation intensifies. Just as it is very natural for
gold to go up in inflationary times, as well. That is
because the inflation and deflation are happening
to the paper currency, the artificial money of the
realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to
gold. And it is artificial, unbacked money and
credit, once it is spawned out across the world,
that ebbs and flows by the billions and trillions,
thus distorting and manipulating the economies of
the world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is
set in motion, the economies and countries grow
increasingly out of balance, and ultimately out of
control. And it almost always starts showing up in
an obvious way with with currency instability,
which was the root of the problem to begin with -
unreal currencies. Just ask the hundreds of
thousands of Asians who have just been laid off,
or reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion
grow, because we seem to live in enduringly good
times. And the BIG LIE  that artificial money
created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions
of higher learning, in the board rooms of our most
brilliant corporations, at the family dinner table
discussions of what we studied in school today,
and in the not so noble halls of government offices
across our fair land. What we have failed to
understand, or have forgotten, is that the basic
standard, the unit of a nation's money -- the
medium of exchange and store of value -- is the
foundation of, and the fundamental building block,
upon which, a nation's entire economy is built. It is
essential for this unit, this standard of money, to
be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by
any and every one.

Historically only gold money, or money and credit
units convertible to and backed by gold, have
endured as real money, immune to both inflation
and deflation. Gold is independent and free of
manipulation and control by any governmental
powers and special interests. John Adams' words
of 200 years ago are just as timely and important
today: "All the perplexities, confusions and
distresses in America arise, not from defects in the
Constitution or confederation, not from want of
honor or virtue, as much as from downright
ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted
currency, regardless of governments that rise and
fall, and economies that go through there natural,
moderate, non-manipulated cycles of economic
summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them,
and disciplines their lust for power and control,
along with their intimate banking friends. This
means that economies no longer remain in
balance, and ultimately, over-extended economic
summers, are followed by inevitable, and very
painful economic winters. All of this excess to
excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if
a gold standard money system were established
and honored, among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian
School of Economics put it this way: "The
eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact
that it makes the determination of the monetary
unit's purchasing power independent of the
measures of governments. It wrests from the
hands of the "economic czar" their most
redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is
furiously attacked by all those who expect they will
benefit by bounties from the seemingly
inexhaustible government purse." ( The truth and
wisdom from this master-teacher of true
economics, might help us better understand why
there has been so much media coverage of
reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming
credit-creation world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden
international economy with careening markets and
collapsing paper currencies. This debt-ridden,
artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly
inflated values. World-wide, property values are
beginning to feel the effects of spreading deflation.
The recent deflationary free-fall in Hong Kong
property values, will likely spread next to Japan
and China. The deflationary world economy is like
a Titanic, and their are never going to be enough
IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy
beginning to mire in debt and growing deflationary
momentum, is the overcapacity of industrial and
technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and
now, the world is not only awash in red-ink, but
also in a glut of goods and services that most
people don't want, and fewer and fewer can really
afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the
recipe for spreading, world-wide deflation, with
ominous implications. When desperate Asian
nations want to import new cars to sell here at half
last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers
and trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons
of gold: gold unassailable, real money, and gold as
a haven of capital preservation in times of
economic crisis and currency turmoil. We got
ourselves into this mess by allowing our
governments and special interests to divorce our
money from gold backing and convertibility. At one
time, our currency was originally as good as gold,
a virtual receipt for real money. It was even
printed, right there on each and every U.S. piece
of currency: "payable to the bearer on demand in
gold". It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit
instruments at certain times, just as inflation does
at other times, because they can be controlled and
manipulated by the powers that be. Naturally
stable economies, based on real money, are
immune to inflation and deflation, and the powers
that be -- their hands are tied, by the immunity of,
and independence of gold. I have an early 1930s'
chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area
entitled: "What Makes the U.S. Economy
Tickand Why it is a Ticking Time-Bomb." The
economy's turned out to have a longer fuse than
I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse
is, indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932
Homestake Mining appreciated approximately
500% while the Dow was crashing in wave after
deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit
themsort of the way growing numbers of
people are feeling in Asia. And the "Asian
Contagion" is spreading, regardless of our
self-absorbed, insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in
( confiscated ) the American people's gold in the
early '30s - at the old price at about $20/oz.; and
then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this
no doubt helped the HM price along its bull market
way. But I wouldn't wait for another confiscation, or
another FDR. The new baby bull market in gold is
here, now. And before its over, there's going to be
quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of
the '80s & '90s, will not be able to get out of the
same 'sell' door at the same time; it could get very
messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful cycle runs its
course, there will be a new dawn, and a new day.
The peoples of the nations of the world, their
governments and bankers included, will at last
return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and
defined credit instruments. These will be the basic
monetary building-blocks, the life-giving
ingredients  like a healthy renewed, purified,
economic blood-stream -- that will be the basis for
the birthing, the foundation, the building, and
creatively flourishing of an economic world in a
new millennium  a millennium with a thriving world
economy, that will create, produce and flourish in a
cooperative international community, committed to
the dignity of the human soul, and the inherent
freedom of the human spirit; and, where all
peoples everywhere, will have an equal chance at
life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing
cycle runs its course, there will be a new dawn,
and new day. The peoples of the nations of the
world, their governments and bankers included,
will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and
gold-defined credit instruments. These will be the
basic monetary building-blocks, the life-giving
ingredients -- like a healthy, renewed, purified
economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies.
This will come, in a new millennium of economic
nation building, in which a thriving world economy
will create and produce enough for all peoples,

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color,
have an equal opportunity to contribute; and enjoy
the fruits of their work, and their entrepreneurial
talents. May we all learn to live in a new world, in a
cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of
the human soul, the inherent freedom of the
human spirit, and the sanctity of human life.

David Blair Macrory

2 February 1998

Back to Gold

Copyright  1997 & 1998 vronsky and westerman

(Wed May 27 1998 02:40 - ID#410215)
..... Ooooooooooooooooooops .....

Farfel wrote:

"I see no reason to categorize Plat and Palladium as anything other than mere commodities."


Again, this is a common misconception about PGMs and I am not surprised that you missed this:

The law REQUIRES you own PGMs.

There are NO substitutes.

Perhaps I have been sitting at this keyboard too long.

But I know of no laws requiring citizens to own gold or silver.

No indeedy

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 02:41 - ID#24135)
In Defense of Farfel
Now Listen here RJ ..
Are you trying to make my friend Farfelberger look
like an IDIOT ????
I wont Have THAT !!
Farfelfinkel is quite capable of doing that all by
Spoke to swiss guy on phone when taking
puts on XAU. He seemed in state of shock.
Was focussing on puts and not report. Report
is brand new I think. Stopped going to
cocktail parties as I getting in too many
punchups. Was getting arm weary .. I know
how it feels..

(Wed May 27 1998 02:41 - ID#401460)

Has anyone checked the Globex lately, appears to be scrambled?


(Wed May 27 1998 02:48 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Unfortunately for your theory.

There are Zero facts to back it up

And I have posted abundant facts to dispute

It makes the largest refiner of PGMs in the world

Subordinate to your views

I am a searcher, and I am eager.

But I fell for the ploy, didnt I?

With no answers to my priors, you change the subject

Lets get back on track, shall we?

From where are you receiving you information on the Russian Cartel?

Can we verify this information anywhere.

Forgive this, but the first thing they taught me in interrogation school

Is that information is useless without knowing the source.

Perhaps you could share yours?


(Wed May 27 1998 02:50 - ID#22956)
Fear and loathing in........
Farfel's world. That dude is big on himself. It would be OK for me if he could make ONE ( just one ) correct call regarding ANY ( just any ) of the markets he comments on. F* ( ull-of-himself ) is the great contrarian. A Yale economist..............puhleeeeeeeeeeeze.........I could graduate from Yale......hell, even StudioR or TeddO or even Old Gold could ( big grin ) . There are probably some Aussie's or some NZ'ers who couldn't though ( nuther big grin thingy ) . Yale-Schmail......... ( blah-blah-blah ) ........

Now.....HST. The finest writer of our generation? Well......I like him too but that seems a stretch. There are too many good writers out there to call any ONE the best. I really liked the movie though. I was wondering how they were gonna pull it off. They did OK. Johnny Depp was great......but he usually is......uh huh.

Hey won't have time to read on that cruise. It's the fun ship remember. I was down a few months ago......great stuff. Say hi to 'Simi' the cocktail gal for me.....and to 'Naj' the pit boss. I was good to them.......cha-ching ( $ ) !

Now..........this Silver is starting to piss me off AGAIN. I went in a few months back and lost about $400 ( paultry compared to Lord John I know ) and I just went in AGAIN last week and am taking a right clobbering. Someone step in and stop the bleeding........please ( ? ) ( ugh ) ....



(Wed May 27 1998 02:51 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

Just showing that I am not a one note player

I think this evening was interesting, yes

I heard little, but learned a lot

As did we all

Nighty, night


(Wed May 27 1998 02:53 - ID#257148)
sure is a lot of acrimony amongst the acronyms, yes?

F* is starting to sound like Hep@ratcat on amphetamines and prozac, no wonder you like sparring with him RJ he must remind your of a HST character, perhaps a lunatic Samoan lawyer?

This is sounding more and more like


(Wed May 27 1998 02:54 - ID#401460)

Hong Kong
Hang Seng


(Wed May 27 1998 02:59 - ID#410215)
..... EB .....

This is a brand new ship, The Elation. Fits 2500 passengers. We will be on only the second voyage of the vessel thereby avoiding the dreaded MAIDEN VOYAGE! I think we go to Mazatlan, Puerta Valerta, and Cabo San Lucas, where I will swim and commune with the spotted Sea Lions of Cabo.

The topmost deck is designated adults only and is topless, so I will go topless. When in Rome and all that rot.

Remember, I am single now


Uh Huh


I need a pair of Predator 8 before the trip.

(Wed May 27 1998 03:03 - ID#22956)
RB....and the breakout S&P triangular.........
call. Good stuff mate. I traded that one with a straddle..... ( the mini's ) ...... ( conservative like ya know ) .....they gave us some time to get on board this a.m. before the leap of cliffy.....and I done good. And now it looks like some follow thru 2-nite.........uh huh.

How low will she go? I will certainly be on the long end after this............big time. But that's when we'll probably get the 'big correction'.........when GSC said we'll be at 5000.......or was it george? the archives


(Wed May 27 1998 03:07 - ID#410215)
..... Just like Chinese food, hungry an hour later .....

The Great PGM Debate this bright eve

Was the literary equivalent of politely gnawing on cartilage

Tasteless, unsatisfying, and definitely void of nutrition.

I am famished

(Wed May 27 1998 03:12 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
Apparently many hedge funds follow Rubin slavishly. Traders have attributed the yen's sharp decline to hints by Rubin that such a drop is OK with him. Now if only Rubin would say he has no problem with $350 POG
Thread, If anyone has been following the Privateer site the 300 dollar moving average value was today shattered to the down side. I suspect that the great bull market in the sky is still a ways over the horizon. For now we can all kiss our ------ goodbye on this play. Bob

From my E-wave analysis, It's possible today was a 5th wave capitulation of this current downtrend.
I was looking at the Gold chart and from the Late Jan/early Feb top we have in Elliot terms and ABC correction, SAME IN SILVER.
For Gold, that would mean we could be entering WAVE 3, which is usually the strongest move in price and time.
What does this all mean?
I think you should trade your CCI shares for your favorite gold shares PRONTO. I loaded up today on beat up juniors, they will shine when the POG starts rockin.
It will be interesting to see how gold shares react to a correction. I was looking at Homestake with the help of Richard Harmon's data and it went through the 29' debacle pretty flat.
PS: if this bottom is as important as Jan 12th, we could get a similar two week explosion in price.
Another important factoid, GOLD AND SILVER ARE IN SYNC.

(Wed May 27 1998 03:17 - ID#22956)
We took the Elation.......and I spent most of my time topless too......
when I wasn't at the roulette wheel. I musta been butta' cause I was on a roll. Yeah, the Mexican Riviera......don't take any of the it on your own......

And enjoy the smorgasbord.......... ( and I ain't talkin about the food ) ........ohmy.

Call me with your order........have you seen any good refractionists lately?? block-up the 8 bases


go gold..........

(Wed May 27 1998 03:27 - ID#401460)

Wednesday May 27, 3:07 am Eastern Time

FTSE 100 braces for big fall after bourses plummet

LONDON, May 27 ( Reuters ) - The UK stock market prepared for a big fall on Wednesday after the Dow and Asian bourses dropped
sharply overnight.

Dealers said the FTSE 100 looked set to fall around 70 points. The index closed at 5,970.7, up 15.1 points, last night.

``Seventy points will take the cash down to 5,900 but no one expects a bounce from there with what the S&Ps are doing,'' said one

S&P futures traded on Globex fell 5.10 points to 1,088.90.
Last night the Dow ended 150.71 points off at 8,963.73


(Wed May 27 1998 03:30 - ID#22956)
London has just begun to sink it's teeth into that there gold.......... ( there may be carnage ) ......and it won't bode well for plat OR silver..........dagnabbit ( ! ) .

I am starting to buy big into October Plat........the bargains are appearing fastily ( new word ) ........ohmy.

LGB.....the time to leverage is now and in Plat and the train is pulling up to the station...... ( toot-toot! )

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em!!!!! Octoberfest..........chugga-chugga........ ( toot-toot ) ( ! )

uying calls like candy......yup

(Wed May 27 1998 03:52 - ID#153102)
@Rude Awakenings
The writer of the following account is under some misconceptions common to Americans.
The first misconception is that there is a contract with the local bank. As dutiful readers of my posts know, the bank signature card obliges you to obey the rules and regulations of The Bank. This agreement with The Bank makes any purported contract with a customer moot.
The second misconception is that the Federal Reserve Notes in your account and in your pocket are your property. They are government property. If they were not government property, there could not be a law against burning them. You get to access them, use them, etc. only with government's permission and according to the rules and regulations of The Bank.
No doubt the writer and the businessman are also under the misconceptions that they own their cars and houses.
There will be a rude awakening for the American people as they learn in the coming months the true meaning of the word FIAT.

What fun it is to live in the land of the free!

: Re: This is why we DON'T need biometrics in our banking system. FYI.
: May 15, 1998, a South Carolina businessman entered First Union Bank to
: a Check given him by his customer on her bankfor CONTRACTED services
: performed by him.He presented the check and his driver's license for
: identification. The teller asked if he had an account there, and when the
: answer was 'no', he was informed he must also place his thumbprint on the
: check.He asked the teller to verify the check by calling his customer;
: reminding her of the bank's CONTRACT with their customer.
: She refused to do so, but made three other phone calls, while he waited.
: repeated his request for honoring the check,reminding her she had his DL
: and his fingerprints are his personal property and not required to be
: to anyone.The branch manager cameto the desk and said that Richland
: [deputies] were on the way.He asked to make a phone call andpermission
: granted before theFIVE deputies arrived.He was asked to leave by
: while making the call ( verified by deputy in question to teller ) . Deputy
: removed phone from his hand, forced him out of the bank, cuffed him and
: him to jail. All this in front of his wife, his three small children, who
: were by now crying,and all the other customers in First Union.He spent
: night in jail, and lost the following day's work while in detention.All
: this for attempting toprotect his right to privacy.
: First Union claims itis looking for fraudulent checks.Are its
: aware their accounts and check-writing are being questioned by their own
: bank?Are they aware their checks are being DISHONORED by THEIR bank,
: their accounts are being held?Since when does any third party private
: business have the right to demand your personal property, your
: in order to close a business transaction for contracted services
: Are we to be considered criminals because we are not regular customers
: that bank?
: Is FIRST UNION aware that their PRIVATE policy is NOT LAW. There is no
: LAW, and therefore violates the people's rights in South Carolina?
: BANK has joined in this PRIVATE policy decision, as has the FIFTH THIRD
: BANKS in Ohio and Kentucky. Are these the kind of banks with which you
: to do business?
: We are not the criminals, the funds in your banking facility are YOURS,
: the banks and notgovernment. We do NOT wish to be coerced into opening
: accounts in banks for more government intrusion.This is NOT protection
: our accounts it is invasion of privacy and attempted government
: control..simply put, "theft" of your personal property.
: Last, we must hold law enforcement accountable for their actions.The
: police are "experts who have the higher knowledge of the law".Our tax
: dollars provide training, seminars, and all manner of classes at our
: expense.
: Heavy handedness, snap judgements,assault, disrespect, and arrogance
: should not have to be toleratedfor the purpose of running "customers"
: through the Judicial meat market.
: This article was contributed by Mr Lee Griggs. He can be reached at

(Wed May 27 1998 03:57 - ID#410215)
..... Recent PGM quote .....

With all these quotes by Johnson Matthey, I neglected Englehard ( second largest refiner of PGMs on earth )

This, from last week:

Ian McLean, a senior executive in commodities business at Engelhard Corporation, said in his speech that price rises were due only in part to Russian delays. "As we know, supply factors alone do not a price rise make. You also need demand. And demand for PGMs in industries around the world has never been greater." "I see it at Engelhard. I see it with Engelhard's customers. I see it everywhere, as industry's thirst for precious metals sharpens with widening consumption of jewelry, electronics, catalysts and soon, fuel cells.''

McLean noted that at current demand rates, producers could not keep pace with demand. "Assuming even a modest rate of growth in PGM consumption... say two percent... mining companies will have to sink a new 100,000-ounce mine every year just to keep up. And we know that's not likely to happen."


It would seem that the professionals are united. Remember, these sources are neutral, that is why people pay attention to them. They simply refine the stuff and sell it.

Thats it

(Wed May 27 1998 04:14 - ID#252150)
A Night @ The Fights
Tonights main event featured Rocky Jean & Farley Fetched. From the opening bell it appeared to be a mismatch. Rocky's toned physique seemed to intimidate Farley right from the introduction & Rocky appeared to be a least one weight division heavier. In the first round Farley managed to land a few tentative jabs, but Rocky's superior power was asserted in the final few seconds when he rocked Farley with several hard body shots. In the second round Farley gamely tried to rely on fancy footwork & speed, but was caught with several more body shots & a stiff right cross that buckled his skinny legs. From the third round on it was not pretty & in the fifth, although Farley was on a bicycle, he was again rocked with a couple of left hooks & a particularly vicious blow to the liver. Somehow, Farley's tenacity & back-pedaling managed to get him through the fight, but the fans registered their disapproval by loudly booing what most considered a blatant mismatch. The decision was a foregone conclusion.

(Wed May 27 1998 04:25 - ID#257148)
You should syndicate


Great Call on "Fight Of The Night" Sportsfans everwhere are pleased, they got their money's worth with today's fight and look forward to the next Fight of The Night, coming to a kitco near you soon.

(Wed May 27 1998 04:30 - ID#284255)
I'm having arguements with my bank at the moment.

Could you please come over here and sort them out?

If one bank should suddenly fall the other banks will jump in.
If all banks fall over?

What of insurance?
If one insurer falls, the other jump in.
But if all insurers falls?

Could the Y2k bug have this effect.
Litigation ain't cheap.

(Wed May 27 1998 04:36 - ID#284255)
FOCUS-Top Japanese banks hit by more ratings cuts
TOKYO, May 27 ( Reuters ) - More bad news hit Japan's troubled banking sector on Wednesday as Moody's Investors Service reduced its closely watched credit ratings of five top Japanese banks, including Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.

``These ( credit rating cuts ) may eventually re-ignite concern about Japan's sovereign debt rating as well,''

``The downgrades reflect concern that Japanese banks are facing a third wave of asset quality problems because of the weakening domestic economy, on top of existing problems resulting from the East Asian crisis and the collapse of the bubble economy,'' Moody's said in a statement.
HK's Hang Seng Index slumps below 9,000 points

The selloff came after Hong Kong leader Tung Chee-hwa said Hong Kong may see negative growth. ``People are expecting the worst,'' said Andrew Fernow, director of research Vickers Ballas.
Inappropriate govt role behind Asia crisis - IMF

``Under the nice facade of market economics, there was a high degree of inappropriate government intervention, including lending based on personal connections,'' Camdessus told a conference in the Kyrgyz capital.
S.Korea unions begin strike, market takes a dive

125 unions across the nation and 120,000 members are joining the strike. The KCTU has a total membership of more than 550,000.

The Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office said the strikes were ``clearly illegal.''

The government is expected to announce early next month which of Korea's many credit-starved companies will continue to get bank financing and which will be allowed to die, leading to major uncertainties in the market.

``There will no lifeboat for some of these companies,''

(Wed May 27 1998 04:37 - ID#153102)
@Fight Report
But why did the reporter censor the part where Rocky jumped up and down on Farley's chest ?

(Wed May 27 1998 04:38 - ID#284255)
Suharto son to keep majority stake in Lamborghini

(Wed May 27 1998 04:39 - ID#252391)
Another wild ride
Gopsh these markets are more fun than Disney land. Up and Down and Down. Ais in the tank again with HK off 500+ points. The strong dollar is killing HK as it is the metals.

Notice Farfel is kicking up the pay ground, here. I think EJ's idea about a credability account for each poster is a good idea. For every bad perdiction points are subtract and for every good perdiction points are added. When all points are gone no more perdictions. I perdict under this system we'll soon run low on perdictions.
Now I'm interested in Wizened's charts - I think they are his. The perdicitions of S&P going to 700 and HM to one. Yes, that's ONE!! Very enticing charts. He has the yellow line ( the market ) traking up and down with his projection line ( blue ) following steadily behind. This closeness gives much credability to perdiction marked by the blue line of of considerable future declines.

I don't want to be critical . . . but come on . . am I to believe he has accurately perdicted the market all the way up and will all the way down. If he does for any period of time measured in weeks and points as closely as his charts project he'll be the greatest market perdictor of all time. And available right here on Kitco for free -- come on folks. Bet his posts dry up pretty quickly as soon as there is a departure between what transpries and what his blue line said would.

On another note - Farfel pointed out that the value of the eligble gold stocks in COmex were only half the value of the cost of productiong Titanic. And that power that could be could buy the gold for half the produiction cost of the movie. Yes, they could have - but they did better, they made a motion picture and made fabulous profits. Virtually any gold buyer over the same period has lost money. Besides if they bought all the gold at the comex the CB would unload and the comex vaults would be refilled. We have to remeber that Comex is not the only place there is silver and gold. 500 million oz of silver are estimated to be stockpiled in private secret vaults - five times the comex hord. Quite obviously the shorts are winning this game for now not those of us watching and calculating the comex stocks - they for now don't seem to impress very many.

Interesting times, interesting markets - won't venture a guess and put my credability points at risk since having sold my metal stocks on Friday I'll stick with that call. I'd buy SSC at 9/16 and SWC at 24 1/8 - can't resist - at heart I think these metals have got to go up..... the technicals don't look like it and I am convinced the buy will be when everything looks the bleakest - and I think that wil be somewhat above HM at ONE.

(Wed May 27 1998 04:44 - ID#401460)


(Wed May 27 1998 04:54 - ID#257148)
Tommy Suharto bought himself a bolt-hole in the McKenzie ( 27,527ha leasehold property in 1992 for $2.2 million. ) Country, some of the most beautiful country here, and not far from the place I was talking about in my email to you tonite.

(Wed May 27 1998 04:54 - ID#252391)
Sharefin - thanks for your summary
The events of the day look scarier and scarier. If Japan's sovereign debt comes into question - my god - would that be bullish for gold - I mean what does it take. Confidence in the US markets will be all that's left - oh yes Europe too - the technicals and my fundlemental leanings are not in sync. It is very disconcerning.

One thng I remeber in Silver for example is that the shorts have to cover somewhere between here and zero.

Watch for a run of the stops in silver under $5 to mark a temporary bottom at least.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:00 - ID#153102)
You probably have an agreement with The Bank just like Americans. It could be purely statuatory in a Crown country and only visible to the judge and attorneys because people usually don't read the law they live under, but take hearsay from attorneys and bureaucrats.

None of this debt currency belongs to the people who have it on account at a bank or in their pocket. It all belongs to the government. I know that seems incredible, but thinking it through, it is the only possibility. You are merely the holder in due course of a note. Gold coin on the other hand is what is known as personalty or chattel in the law. You do own that.

These debt currencies are all a fraud. There is no wealth stored in them. Merely debt. All that labor, decades of it, has been stolen by government. Banks, insurance, the whole thing is a fraud. Fiat is tyranny, not law or rule of law. The paper is legal robbery. The people have been legally robbed of their labor.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:12 - ID#39857)
FTSE down 2%

(Wed May 27 1998 05:15 - ID#39857)
Thats hands over head looking at belly
Gold could rally and keep this beast alive.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:43 - ID#284255)
Just a bunch of pretty charts
Global Indices

US Indices Charts.htm

Damn those bits of paper.
Damn scary - when the boot turns, too.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:43 - ID#255217)
Brutal Reality
There is a lot of very, very good ( and valuable ) information available through this forum. I, for one, have benefitted from my exposure to Kitco over the past six months.

But I must say, that when all is said and done, after all the prognostications, all the analyses and all the best guesses have been made , it is obvious that the marketplace itself is the final arbiter of the valuations placed on the PM's. The metals are gonna do what they damn well please and all the hand wringing and discussion is just periferal NOISE! We sometimes forget that fact, IMO.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:53 - ID#386279)
Very perceptive. The brutal reality is that a whole lot of people are hurting very badly and are selling the only thing they have left that is of value--REAL money.

Mozel--your Rude Awakenings. A real gem on "warder's night off" at the asylum.

(Wed May 27 1998 05:55 - ID#20748)
Lifted from Avid Chatter

physical demend for gold in HK highest since february; no doubt govts all over the world will sell gold to support their currencies but thats the beginning of the END which is long term bullish for gold

(Wed May 27 1998 06:08 - ID#30116)
Uh oh.

(Wed May 27 1998 06:12 - ID#316193)
NJ, Your "Lifted From Avid Chatter"
Says it all!! Thanks!

(Wed May 27 1998 06:14 - ID#39857)
Incoming waves

(Wed May 27 1998 06:21 - ID#284255)
Gold VS paper
The harder gold spike down
The greater the pressure mounting on equities.
The closer we are to the edge.

Are we almost there?

(Wed May 27 1998 06:44 - ID#185448)
Swihing looo, saweet cha-rioho
Watch the USD loosing ground against all major european currencies.
Take a decline in the exchange-rate plus unchanged US-interest rates plus a huge trade deficite and consider the economic boom in the US in relationship to the increased supply in M. Then take Dornbusch/Fischers "Macroeconomics" and read chapter 6 until youve got it.

My conclusion: Either AG does a pretty good job - or things got definitely out of control.

(Wed May 27 1998 06:52 - ID#340459)
Gold has become like the Whore of Babylon to US Paper...
PM are falling faster than toilet paper Manufacturing Stocks..
EMU is doomed if they continue to dick around about Gold backing for Euro..

(Wed May 27 1998 07:02 - ID#242325)
RJ: Time for you to cover your shorts and turn this gold market around?

(Wed May 27 1998 07:16 - ID#412286)
Failed rally
This was supposed to have been a gold bottom ( BILL BUCKLER ANALYSIS ) . The PPT has successfully aborted it. Over the last couple of years there has always been an attack on the PMs when the stk mkt came under pressure. I think this is to prevent any money from "panicing into gold" so it continues into treasuries. Rubin et al are out for blood against gold this time. With this type of performance do you really think gold should be used to back the EURO, I think ALL dollars would be better. HMMMMM...

(Wed May 27 1998 07:20 - ID#255151)
Just Got Home

Haven't read the last 12 hours of Kitco. Can't wait to see what the topic was. How about them markets. Lots of blood letting in world stocks! Hong Kong took a tumble and Europe is getting hit. Gold, as usual, sits on its a**.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:24 - ID#242325)
ROR: Gold is gettin hit becuase Asian markets and currencies are getting hit. PPt has nothing to do with it. They will only start to worry about gold when it gets to $350.

Bully Beef
(Wed May 27 1998 07:24 - ID#259282)
Ok ...for 30 points how much money is lost on Wall street today?
And will gold go down as well? 2pts.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:26 - ID#340459)
Bloomberg NOW - SNB (Swiss National Bank) to sell more than Half of all it's Gold
The bastards are at it again..

(Wed May 27 1998 07:27 - ID#45173)
Last night I predicted the Hang Seng to close below 9000
Hong Kong Hang Seng 4:00AM 9482.21 8983.43 -498.78 -5.26%

Gold will continue down with Asian stock markets as Asia gold sellers covering stock losses are not met by enough gold buyers outside Asia. Wall Street is starting to absorb the brutal logic of lower earnings due to the impact of the Asia crisis on corporations that export to Asia or compete with Asia, excess capacity and inventories, tapping-out of productivity improvements due to downsizing and technology, and mounting Y2K costs showing up on 10-K reports. The DOW will continue down today as will gold. This trend will continue until DOW sellers become gold buyers. This will happen when the DOW decline is perceived not as a "healthy correction" but as a long term trend--the start of a bear market. My bet is that when it drops 1,000 points to below 8000, novice players will lose their nerve to be "in it for the long haul" and run for the exits, liquidating their mutual funds. Then the pros may start to buy gold to hedge. I'll wager 1 credibility point on this.

Current CP account: 10 CPs

Current wagers:
- DOW will never reach 10,000 in this bull cycle: 2 CPs
- Gold bear will continue until DOW is below 8000: 1 CP


(Wed May 27 1998 07:28 - ID#412286)
Could you post the URL for that story. Who is going to buy?

(Wed May 27 1998 07:28 - ID#341189)
AM Gold report - physical demand, paper selling

(Wed May 27 1998 07:30 - ID#340155)
'Readjustment' in equity markets is underway.
Yesterday's downturn in U.S. equity markets should accelerate today. At some point further south, as in the recent past, it will be heralded as a unique buying opportunity. The ultimate definition of the word unique in this case may be different than many hope for. Those who seize the opportunity won't see the market rebound, and make new highs, as they are programmed to expect, and that will be unique in the last 16 years.

Their expectataions of higher and higher prices based on the year after next's earnings may disappoint some. Margin calls may disappoint others. The sheep will appeal to the government, "How can this be allowed to happen!"

One man, above all, can't allow this to happen. Or the people may see the emperor is naked - - - and has more than just a few warts. So expect some serious effort on William the Erect's part to put his finger in the hole, so to speak.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:37 - ID#348169)
Argent - Re Your 5:43. Exactly. Talk is cheap. However, you may have noticed some comments here from certain analysts who actually POINT BLANK predicted, based on indicators they follow, this current fall in Gold and especially Silver. I refer, of course to APH and Glenn and others.
"The wind and the waves are always on the side
of the best navigators." --- Edward Gibbon

(Wed May 27 1998 07:37 - ID#45173)
Carl: thx for the heads up, another reason why gold heads down
more today in addition to Asia sellers covering stock market losses. If you're playing it long, you got another chance to buy.

The Swiss Federal Finance Ministry said it was proposing to allow the SNB to free up roughly half of its gold reserves in line with a previously announced decision to end the gold backing for the Swiss franc.

The changes are subject to approval by Swiss citizens in a referendum, for which no date has yet been set.

``Today the SNB holds more reserves than are needed for carrying out monetary policy,'' the ministry said.

``With respect to the SNB, for monetary policy purposes, in addition to its currency reserves, around half of its gold holdings is sufficient. The other half -- that is, around 1,300 tonnes -- can be used for other purposes,'' it added.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:38 - ID#412286)
Swiss Stuff
Isnt it old old news? Looks like cover for the raid.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:38 - ID#340459)
@ROR, The SNB selling news was on Canadian TV- ONTV / Morning Markets / Bloomberg News and not URL
I am extremely frustrated at grand financial deception that is ensuing

(Wed May 27 1998 07:40 - ID#289357)
ROR, Midas @ EURO gold backing
With the announcement of gold backing set ( I think ) now for June 7th, the decision must have already been made, and the current frenzy may be due to a late seller ( Dutch, according to Veneroso? ) to get their selling done before the announcement.

From our perspective, the decision is an easy one on two fronts: A heavy gold position in EURO reserves means a strong currency, and that those gold reserves will appreciate considerably compared to current values. Conversely, a light backing will make for a weak EURO, and the gold reserves that are held will depreciate with the rest of the gold market. My thinking is that the Germans and French will ensure that it is a strong currency, if for no other reason to show themselves independant of the US dollar.

My sense about all the rumors of various percentage gold reserve holdings in the last couple months, is that they have been trial baloons to see just what effect they would have on the gold market. They will want to have enough gold to enjoy the benefits ( ?? ) of a strong currency, but at the same time not so much as to send the gold market up in a radical way, which would destabilize markets considerably. 25% gold reserves sounds about right.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:42 - ID#255151)
Kitco Fight Night

Just saw the replay of last night's fight between RJ and Farfel. The Kitco bar cleared a space for that one, eh! Also thought Argent's 05:43 post was excellent. Must reading.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:44 - ID#57232)
Red Ink in Europe -- red ink to be in the Americas
All: It would be nice to know what that Swiss fellow was referring to when he was talking to John Disney. Some big gold sellers somewhere. Is it as sharefin says, a world financial crisis somewhere? Japan? Probably not Russia -- only revolution there would do it, and that would make gold go up, not down. If the Russian index gets any lower, they will have to start using fractional units.

I was looking for a leg up in precious metals right about now, with Indonesia looking better ( on the surface ) . Premature.

I think part of the problem with the commodity price index is the near ideal growing conditions in the US for some crops -- didn't catch which one. The question is -- will these near ideal conditions last all summer, or will we have heat wave/drought conditions later?

Perhaps all we are seeing is the effect of the last gold sale before EMU announcements -- Dutch? The central banks have to keep selling gold, or increase their loans if they wish to keep the gold bear intact. Also, the 'powers that be' cannot allow the US dollar to keep getting stronger, so sooner or later, it must fall. The long term forces that will allow gold to go up are gathering -- but my lesson learned is to wait for the technical shift -- put too much weight on the fundamentals.

If a US market bear is beginning, as some predict, there will be many Baby Boomers much more upset than us. And -- if the US market bear is of any significant duration -- as the Oldman says -- it will not be pretty. One thing I do know, the South American markets will go before the American markets. So - they merit watching.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:44 - ID#248180)
Swiss Gold Sales @ Carl 07:23
They have flogged this story far beyond belief. Everytime the DOW is under threat they pull this story up.
Buy gold all the way down, it will never be cheaper. Be practical, steady and calm, make your way to the exits and keep buying PM's until you hit the street. Keep your focus on mid to late 1999 and beyond.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:46 - ID#45173)
Maverick: Why is Greenspan smiling?
Because the DOW is heading down and he didn't have to say anything to get it going, so he doesn't have to take the rap. He and Clinton won't do anything. They've covered their asses with warnings about "irrational exuberance" and so on. I agree that when the perception becomes one of a long-term drop in corp earnings, the market will start down in earnest and become a self-fulfilling bear prophesy as it has been a self-fulfilling bull prophesy. I expect it to rise and fall in a general downward trend.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:47 - ID#412286)
It is clear that Britain, Canada, Australia and the US are the anti gold pro paper foursome. But this Swiss story has been out a long time. For example, when gold rises they point to the fact that the referendum wont be held for awhile and wont pass when held. IE news follows price.

Martin Armstrong of the PEI is looking better and better. His predictions have been very good. He warned us of the Silver collapse. In May 1997 he stated that gold would bottom in June 1998 and begin a five year rally from that point to a minimum of 1200 and a maximum of 10000. He stated the reason would be a chaos relating to what currency is actually worth. This was very insightful as he stated this PRE Asia crisis. Lets give credit where credit is due. Lets get some more posts from Martin Armstrong and his group on here.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:48 - ID#57232)
Swiss National Bank sells all gold?
That is just rumor. That would not make a Swiss upset, because he would laugh at the absurdity. If they do sell their gold, they need to pass a public referendum. Not passed yet.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:49 - ID#341189)
@Junior & EJ
I posted the story because of the mention ( twice ) that good physical buying was being met with paper selling. This seems significant to me. Not just that it is occuring, but more because it's the first mainline public report i've seen that lets this cat out of the bag.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:50 - ID#289357)
XAU forecaster

Short-term - very oversold

Intermediate term - oversold, but still a little more to go on the downside before very oversold condition exists

Long term - falling from overbought - still 10% or so more drop before it meets the lower envelope

(Wed May 27 1998 07:50 - ID#185448)
Stinking old swiss cheese
Posted this before:
At any time, the stock markets looked like facing severe troubles, a swiss announcement about thinking about selling gold immideately occured. They did it in 97, they did it this year - they call it either "reserve-portfolio-adjustment" or they give it the holocaust-fund-topic. Again: The Swiss people would have to agree in a public referendum. So even if SNB really planned to sell- there would be a time lag of at least one year until the first share of their sale would come into the markets. ROR was absolutely right, when he posted "...I think this is to prevent any money from "panicing into gold"..." minutes ago.

Without knowledge of the facts, I herewith declare that in my op, its just fa**ing in the woods.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:53 - ID#39857)
Just gnomes doin the dirty work for you know who.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:56 - ID#289357)
S&P 500 Elliott wave chart and Fibonacci time charts

Looks like the May 27 turn came in right on his time target.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:56 - ID#255151)
Bully Beef

Looks pretty negative from Europe and Asia. Dow lost a lot in the last hour yesterday. Without the PPT, I'd say the Dow would fall big time. I just don't have a feel for what the PPT is up to, and what cards they still have left up their sleeves. My guess--They are in somewhat of a disarray. Therefore, my prediction is DJIA down over 200 points.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:57 - ID#341189)
Mexico going to be back in the news?
The M peso falling even against a weeker dollar this morning.

(Wed May 27 1998 07:57 - ID#45173)
Carl: so the theory goes that governments want to sell
bonds so they threaten to sell gold when capital flows out of currency and equities markets to discourage capital from gold?

(Wed May 27 1998 08:04 - ID#255151)
Russian Stocks Plunge

Russian market down over 11%.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:04 - ID#341189)
My spelling is weaker than usual
this week.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:06 - ID#248180)
Carl "Demand for the physical Gold" - London
Carl your comment is very well accepted. Whilst they bury the real indicators in the general text, the point is made. Seems like Mr. Another once said that the demand/run on physical gold would start in London and paper would burn.
Nonetheless it still seems to convenient for "Them" to run the Swiss gold sales story again. Then end it with, "any gold sales by the Swiss must be voted on by the Swiss Parliment".

(Wed May 27 1998 08:11 - ID#248180)
Another Reason why the Swiss gold sales story is Bullshit!!!!

(Wed May 27 1998 08:16 - ID#228128)
Martin Armstrong and PEI
ROR - I agree that we should pay more attention to Armstrong. He has been on the money. In addition to the things that you mention is that he expects the dollar to grow stronger in spite of the increasing trade deficit. Many here are expecting the dollar to tank as a prelude to a gold bull. Armstrong is predicting the opposite for the dollar but a gold bull nonetheless. Off to work.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:16 - ID#252391)
The swiss are going to sell gold
I like the theory that this announcement comes out when ever there seems to be a rush into gold. The Swiss are trying to keep their currency down in the face of the Russian problems. It's amazing that the news services don't reject this stuff.
I furthermosre like the theory that the gold market and the XAU and the CRB will decline until the stock market has proven not to be the place for the dippsters to play anymore. The run out of the last mutual fund buyers and the turn in professional sentiment around 7700 on the dow would seem a logical place for money to start flowing into the golds. The braoder markdt and the metal stocks might even recover together. It just feels to me we are getting closer to the final turn. The CRB is 17 points or 8 % form its 92 recession lows. Another 10% down in the XAU wjould take us to the low 70s. $4.85 looks like a bottom pickers dream in silver. At some point these shorts are going to start to cover. Noticed open interest was down Friday in Silver.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:19 - ID#248180)
Here is the Original release from London re Swiss Gold Sales - "BS"
Swiss govt proposes Swiss franc/gold delink, sale of half of SNB reserves
Date: 27 May 1998 12:21:24
Service: AFX

BERN ( AFX ) - The government proposed that the Swiss franc be delinked from
the gold price, which would allow the Swiss National Bank to sell half of its
gold reserves, estimated at 2,600 tonnes.
Parliament has yet to decide on the proposal.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:24 - ID#255151)
Hepcat Gold Comment, Bully Beef

Well, since many here have asked, here it is. The Dow is looking bad and may take Gold down with it. Gold must hold $290, or risk going all the way down to $250. ( end of comment ) My take--This Swiss Gold thing seems like the trump card being played. If Gold can close higher today in the face of that, then I'd say the bull market has arrived. Prediction for Bully Beef--Gold up over $2 today.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:26 - ID#248180)
Not very pretty for Sellers from London
Commodities: Gold falls sharply on dollar strength
Date: 27 May 1998 12:29:28
Service: AFX

LONDON ( AFX ) - Gold fell sharply in early trade as investment fund selling
continued to put downward pressure on the market, against a backdrop of weaker
Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar, dealers said.

PRECIOUS METALS ( Spot prices relative to previous London close )
Price ( usd/oz )

Gold 291.50 dn 4.50
Platinum 375.00 dn 3.00
Palladium 355.00 dn 23.00
Silver 5.09 dn 0.13

Dealers added that many Asian investors have been selling gold, particularly
in Indonesia and South Korea, in favour of U.S. dollars.
According to Macquarie Bank precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi: "The
over-riding factor for gold's weakness is the strength of the U.S. dollar.
"The dollar is strong against the Australian dollar and the South African
Rand, prompting a great deal of forward hedge-selling by gold producers," he
Naqvi also said the weakness of the yen is "threatening demand in Asia," as
dollar-priced gold becomes "too expensive."
Dealers said they expect to see some short-covering this afternoon when
Comex opens, and that gold prices are likely to find key technical support
around the 290 usd level.
They added that the weakening of the gold price has had a knock-on effect
across the whole of the precious metals complex this morning.
Silver fell as dealers expressed concern over slowing demand from India as a
result of the weakening rupee.
Platinum was confined to a tight trading range while palladium fell sharply
in thin trade, as the increase in margin requirements in the U.S. deterred
buying interest.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:33 - ID#255151)
On The Other Hand

Trump cards can be effective!

(Wed May 27 1998 08:34 - ID#248180)
Auric & Trump Cards
This is very evident and has tattered edges. I like your call. Hang in there. Good night from OZ.

(Wed May 27 1998 08:42 - ID#255151)
Hepcat Silver Comment, Junior

Any further drop is an excellent buying opportunity for Silver. ( end comment ) Junior-- Paradigm shift, eh!

(Wed May 27 1998 09:00 - ID#45173)
Agreed, the Swiss gold sale story is getting crusty
but will nonetheless have its intended effect. But it can't be used too often or it won't work. At some point the financial press will have to cover the phenomenon and then currency interests will have to find a new technique.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:00 - ID#340459)
Go Silver, Go Gold, Screw the Paper pyramids, Show your worth to us who Believe!
SNB, stuff your announcements up your snout..If you are selling much Gold your past and present actions and declrations mean that you want lower and lower prices for what you sell, Does it make sense, Folks ?

(Wed May 27 1998 09:08 - ID#341189)
@Midas at 9:00
LOL, You said what I was thinking.: ) Gone for the day.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:11 - ID#340459)
@EJ, you are right pal. Unfortunately much that we see from financial journalist are pure bunk
These guys parrot what big houses tell them. It now seems beyond any shadow of a doubt that Gold/PM prices have been deliberately manipulated down. Silver is at 600 year low and Gold at more than 300 year low, but unfortunately Paper is the King. Russian Stocks have now fell more than 61% so far this year, The Other non G-7 markets are in Shambles in Asia and South America and still people cannot see value in commodities, What folly, we have been financially decieved from many years now and I hope that WE HAVE OUR DAY, Amen.

Good Luck to All today and God Bless..,

(Wed May 27 1998 09:16 - ID#413109)
Good Chance
With the $ weaker, against most currencies, and gold having taken
a tumble, there's a good possiblity that today the whole thing will
change direction. Especially since the indecies are going to get creamed.
Monies have been sloshing around the world, looking for safer havens,
GOLD may be considered one of these.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:16 - ID#373284)
My HEART really does go out to the
people in Asia.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:20 - ID#340459)
Everybody is waiting for Markets to open in USA, Look out DOW..
Go Gold Go...
Go Silver Go..
Go Pal Go..
GO Plat Go..
DOWN Dollar Down..

(Wed May 27 1998 09:22 - ID#373284)
check your email.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:23 - ID#227168)
I found The Other Poorboy very distasteful in my absence As more than one posts under the handle Poorboys . It is strange how all the pack rats run together. Good Day Gentlemen.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:26 - ID#340459)
Shorts cover your behind..This Baby may Rock and Roll soon..
I pray that our patience is rewarded, Amen..

John B__A
(Wed May 27 1998 09:30 - ID#17470)
Gold vs silver
If anything looks positive today, it may be silver. If it holds above $5 then this could be a good test of its recent lows. Gold equities however are likely to get sloshed around with the S&P/DOW which look negative.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:33 - ID#286230)
Flash Back
Great discussion last night. Took me back to my university days--I slept right through it. Need more of that sort of search for clarity and a whole lot less cheer leading and sermonizing around here.

Mike Stewart
(Wed May 27 1998 09:35 - ID#270253)
Martin Armstrong Fans
Check out and go to the transcripts.

In May he said that he likes gold, but to wait until July. A move over $340 would mean we are off and running.

As I commented yesterday, all of my intermediate term indicators have been negative. It is time to start looking for the bottom all over again. It could take a while to develop. My guess is one to four months. I will watch my indicators and keep you informed.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:36 - ID#340459)
Dow -70, TSE -80, Nasdaq -21, Toronto Gold 293.65- uptick
PM's may be stable today.., I hope and Pray..

(Wed May 27 1998 09:36 - ID#410215)
..... Swiss Story is like their cheese .....

Full of holes, yes?

I must say that the Swiss story is old and moldy and has little to with recent drops in gold. I will cover shorts today. Perhaps keep just a bit? Oh yes.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:42 - ID#340459)
Dow down more than 100 in 15 mts - Nasdaq down -21
Go Gold Go..

(Wed May 27 1998 09:43 - ID#348169)
Silver -Day Chart
John B_A - Just a wild guess based on Mooney's patented Mickey Mouse chart eyeballing analysis technique, but it looks that today's high's in Silver will be around $5.20 and that this is a possible short day trade with stop loss at $5.245 .
Gumperson's Law:
"The probability of anything happening is in inverse ratio to its

(Wed May 27 1998 09:47 - ID#333126)
mother russia's paying too much interest

(Wed May 27 1998 09:52 - ID#229277)
Midas: do you think it matters that the NYTimes, WSJ, etc. are publicaly-traded
companies? Naw. Can't matter. I'm sure it's great for your carreer as a reporter or editor at a major news organization to file a story that says that the stock market is overvalued and, by implication, so is your employer's stock.

(Wed May 27 1998 09:54 - ID#242325)
Selling climax near for gold and gold equities? Coulkd happen today.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:00 - ID#242325)
RJ: When gold bounces $5, we'll know you have covered your shorts.

Want to second the poster who suggested we follow Martin Armstrong more carefully. His record is A OK. But find it hard to swallow the idea of concurrent gold and dollar bulls.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:08 - ID#286230)
According to my info Randgold has dropped 19% so far today. Can anyone confirm? Should rocket up sometime down the road --I guess.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:13 - ID#426220)
Let the fireworks begin

Analyst Clif Droke forecast a major stock market decline, possibly of biblical proportions.

On Monday, May 26, the stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 150 points from the previous close to finish at 8963.

Providing further psychological proof that a top is firmly in place

was the recent front cover of Newsweek magazine, featuring a

drawing of a bull in a wedding dress, with the headline: "Like it or

not, you're married to the market." Mainstream magazine covers

have historically provided excellent proxies as to the psychology

of the crowd, and ultra-bullish covers tend to accompany market

tops and precede turning points in the market.

Yet the market continues to fall in the

face of this bountiful liquidity-a sure sign of

an over-bought market that has simply

exhausted its upside potential.

Short sellers, get on your marks, get set

Analyst Droke's full report at following website. Remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before pasting it to your Internet locator.

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 27 1998 10:19 - ID#430260)
Record is A-Okay? Late last summer he called for silver to drop to 3.50. Instead, it went up $3. He was also calling for a silver bull to begin after that bottom taking it to the $12 to $18 range. Now suddenly the world is awash in silver ( according to the horses mouth ) . Gold and silver may move in opposite directions on a temporary basis, but anyone who tells you gold will soar and silver will plunge for the indefinite future is coming from another planet, and probably the outer ring. --AG

(Wed May 27 1998 10:21 - ID#20748)
There has been reference to an ongoing sale by one or more European CBs, which is yet to be announced : Martin Armstrong, Veneroso and James Turk. There is also news that ECB will announce the gold composition of its reserves some time in June.

My point is that, being that the current drop is attributed solely to funds selling short, the funds may be front running the expected announcement of a gold sale by one or more European CBs.

If that be the case, maximum life expectancy of the new bear is no more than few days to a maximum of eight weeks.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:22 - ID#255151)
The Dow of PPT

What is the $ value of each one point move in the Dow? Just trying to get an idea of the amount of $ being used by the PPT.

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 10:25 - ID#212323)
Bad advice
Exchange your PM's for cash and buy this dip on the DOW. The DOW may never again be at this historically low level, while gold is on borrowed time at this unprecedented high value. "The trend is your friend" I have been told. Can you see clearly now?

There is TRUTH in this post. You will find it in the subject line.

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 10:28 - ID#212323)
Seeing red...

(Wed May 27 1998 10:30 - ID#340459)
@EJ, Hey I am no reporter. I am an PM Investor who has suffered greatly by losses in PM's
Can you clarify your post please..

(Wed May 27 1998 10:33 - ID#31868)
Giving gold to gardners, handing out printouts on Y2K...I have decided that my life should consist of trying to do good for others. Always working towards the positive...

Kindness works...

John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 10:34 - ID#24135)
For Rangy ex-fans ..
Rangold closed here 4.4 rands which puts it about
7/8 US. US market normally trades about 1/16 -1/8
higher than RSA on rangy ( NO idea why ) so I figure
a close US of 15/16 or 1. I dont know where the 19%
fall idea come from ( selby must have had a bad dream ) ..
.. Things are bad enough .. The Index here was off by
over 6 % and the rand came off a bit more to 5.135.
I think we'll see 5.3.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:35 - ID#340459)
@EJ, I got what you meant now, I am quite thick today with all the excitement
Best of Luck, Pal..

(Wed May 27 1998 10:37 - ID#255151)

Several months ago a Kitco poster wrote that Armstrong was heavily short when Gold shot up in early '85 from about $285, and never looked back until $500 in late '87. Is that true?

(Wed May 27 1998 10:38 - ID#254269)
90% Stock Loans; Just opened my WSJ to see what is going on in the world and
the very first thing I see is an ad on Page A2 for 90% stock loans. Ad says they are no margin call loans. I'm sorry, I just don't get it !

(Wed May 27 1998 10:38 - ID#57232)
Could be the Gold longs are getting ready to pile in.
NJ: I like your reasoning -- could be because I am thinking the same thing ( ha! ) . All that one needs to do is assume that the US markets are not about to crash in the next few months. If so, the 'Big Traders' are very likely positioning themselves for the long-term gold bull to be. At the turning point of a 2 years gold bear, there are likely to be alot of heavyweights eager for action. We must not get shaken out of the action, IMHO, during a weak moment.

I find it interesting that so far there is no concerted attempt to push gold down any more - at least so far today.

Any idea why the commodity price index has been dropping steadily? That worries me. Cry0 going below 200 would be a very bad sign. I'm hoping that it is bottoming. We need some input from D.A. -- he is bound to have something of value.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:39 - ID#340459)
The darn dollar is strengthening again..

(Wed May 27 1998 10:43 - ID#340459)
Every nation is RED today except China, What a Idealogical contradiction
Go Peking Go..

(Wed May 27 1998 10:43 - ID#255151)
Avalon--WSJ Ad

The Fat Lady is starting to sing!

(Wed May 27 1998 10:47 - ID#340459)
The PM's are quiet now from last 90 minutes, Calm before it takes off like a storm, likely ?
Is WB selling his Cola and Burger soon ?

(Wed May 27 1998 10:49 - ID#286230)
19% came from Quicken portfolio. Now showing Randgold -6%.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 27 1998 10:54 - ID#384350)
Russian key interest rates triple to 150%
...says Bloomberg news. In an attempt to stave off a collapse of the ruble after the price of govt treasuries plunged pushing the yield up to 70%.

(Wed May 27 1998 10:55 - ID#333127)
Last I read by J. Dines, he expects strong dollar and gold rise.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:01 - ID#20748)
PPT at action stations
First they bought bonds, raising talk of divergence in the market. Right now they are buying USD, hoping to spark thoughts of safe haven in US paper and currency.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:01 - ID#254269)
This makes it Official; "Prices tumble for Stock-exchange seats" is the title of
article Page C1 WSJ. "A NYSE seat sold on Thursday for $1.35 million, down a steep 32.5% from the record $2 million on March 9th". Interesting little story.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:02 - ID#342376)
Central Bank Gold sale rumours=Plunge Protection Team
Has anyone noticed this is the third time since October that Gold Sales have been announced when the US markets are looking very shakey? Talk about Manipulation!

(Wed May 27 1998 11:03 - ID#22956)
I was watching the currencies take off against the US$......
and then I went off for my morning 'constitution'.........when I came back US$ was SLAMMING EVERYTHING! What the hell happened?? Is my 'puta in error......what a wild ride ( ! ) . Damn........ ( ? ) scratch hell outta me mind


John Disney__A
(Wed May 27 1998 11:10 - ID#24135)
A question of National Pride
To All
Believe Europeans dumping $ and
buying euros. Then Yanks buy $
and sell european currency. Everybody
sells Yen. Just a thought.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:14 - ID#22956)
JTF....perhaps you missed mt post yesterday
I was not kidding about the La Nia.....nope:

These are just a few stories related to zee leetle gurl.....yup. wax my skiis for winter already......and it ain't summer yet.


go gold...

(Wed May 27 1998 11:15 - ID#153102)
Armstrong: Greenback and Gold will rise together
Dines: Strong Greenback and Rise in Gold
ANOTHER: when the Greenback and Gold rise together, the match is moving toward the paper

(Wed May 27 1998 11:18 - ID#22956)
good thought.....I like it. Now, when are you coming back to US to spend all those $$ ( US ) ?? I know you miss those good hot dogs with all the And what of that *awful* hot&humid Virginia summer......... ( sweat pouring ) ........ ( lemonade drinking ) ........... ( aaaaaaaaaahhh ) ... sell the bejeeeeesus outta en


(Wed May 27 1998 11:26 - ID#342315)
Need a url or email for SWISS NATIONAL BANK. TIA

(Wed May 27 1998 11:26 - ID#254269)
WSJ article; Page C16. Aubrey Lanston Company laying off 12% of its staff,
citing lack of volatility and cutthroat competition in Treasury market.
The company is one of 36 primary dealers in US Treasuries. Note the company is owned by Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd.Also, on Friday, Nippon Credit Bank announced plans to liquidate Eastbridge Capital Inc. a NY based subsidiary that is also a primary dealer.

Okay guys, what is going on here ?

(Wed May 27 1998 11:31 - ID#210163)
This might be it
Watching gold fight back to only down a dollar from being in the hole 5 bucks is VERY encouraging. Should we go positive today it would be a sign that you have a very low risk entry point for gold. With the Swiss news and the asian crisis usually bad for gold if we go up today the turn is in. bye

(Wed May 27 1998 11:33 - ID#153102)
Are the $US greenbacks in your pocket and in your account actually your "money". Believe it or not, they aren't. They are like your car. If you keep it inspected and it passes inspection and keep all the necessary decals on it and keep it registered and keep any fines levied against it paid up to date, then you may USE it according to the published rules and regulations.

It's exactly the same situation with the $USgreenback. You may USE it within the rules and regulations of The Bank and only within the rules and regulations of The Bank. That's why too much cash is a crime, making "structured" deposits is a crime, "laundering" is a crime, and not reporting certain transactions with greenbacks is a crime. Also, burning it is a crime. None of these could be a crime if the greenbacks in your account and in your pocket were actually your property.

When people cannot get "their money" out of The Bank, their true legal situation may finally dawn on them. That it's not "their money" after all.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:34 - ID#57232)
La Nina - thanks!
EB: So far I have ignored the 'little girl' in my analysis. Won't anymore. I think SEAsia is still in the grips of the El Nino. If the La Nina hits this winter, things could get rather dicey over there, and in the US -- so far I have seen nothing to indicate that the El Nino is abating -- could be that the change occurs first in SEAsia, then in the Americas. By the way -- I don't think those meteorologic experts can tell when the ElNino will end, and when the La Nina will take hold. I will read up on this.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:39 - ID#412172)
Hong Kong bank sees EURO as competitor to dollar:

(Wed May 27 1998 11:42 - ID#426220)

REF: mozel ( @Convergence )
Armstrong: Greenback and Gold will rise together
Dines: Strong Greenback and Rise in Gold
ANOTHER: when the Greenback and Gold rise together

Would not it be ironic that Power Trio Clinton/Greenspan/Rubin have been cooking up a strategy of puttting the GREENBACK back on the GOLD STANDARD?!

Benefits to accrue would be enumerable. Firstly, it wouold nip in the bud the Euro's looming threat to displace the reigning DOLLAR as the world's par excellence RESERVES CURRENCY. Secondly, US prestige would reign supreme, thus increasing American dominance in the world. Thirdly, more money would flow to Wall Street shores, thus shoring up the tanking stock market... and staving off the bursting of the bubble - at least until the Democrates again carry the vote. And FINNALY, all the growing heat focusing on White House shananigans will have been forgotten or foregiven. Monica WHO?! Lavinsky WHAT?!

PERHAPS, this is THE common basis for the unanimous decision of Dines, Armstrong and ANOTHER. HECK, there has to be some valid rationale for
the unusual situation whereBY the GREENBACK AND GOLD BECOME COUPLED...
who knows.... may be the Shadow...

(Wed May 27 1998 11:43 - ID#408236)
@ all: On the Kitco graph, silver just stepped off a cliff. Is that a plotting error?
@Mozel re convergence, What does all that mean? The reference to ANOTHER, would suggest that when gold and the US$ move together, the end of the US$ credibility is near. The reference to Dines et al is more obscure.

I have always contended that when the DOW finally broke, the PPT would make holding pm stocks and physical a nightmare. I bought virtually all my stuff back in January, and am hanging tough. What an agonizing ride!
Best of luck to us all.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:47 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re "Gold Standard"
Very perceptive. We will watch and see together- yes? Charlie

(Wed May 27 1998 11:50 - ID#57232)
Dollar to go back on gold standard?
Vronsky: I have several problems with this, even if AG might secretly want this. First, do you have any evidence that the US is buying gold? It would certainly be hats off to AG if he were taking this excellent opportunity to do so. Secondly, even if AG does buy enough gold ( unliikely ) , the current equilibrium price of gold would be approximately $600/oz of more. Without gold purchases, one might speculate that the gold price would be in the thousands of dollars. That would not be a pretty sight, IMHO, even if that might actually happen by 2010-2015 anyway.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:54 - ID#36156)
Charlie - SNB

(Wed May 27 1998 11:56 - ID#404246)
re: mozel (@Ownership)


I am sending copies of that post to all my close friends.
(Wed May 27 1998 11:57 - ID#434108)
revision of the collapsing dominoes, first identified in Sept. '97
re-copy of posting, of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:


The Asian Tigers - economies/nations, are the "stakes"...

and the increasing vulnerability, and reality, of Indonesia's turmoil,, S. Korea's spreading paralysis of labor unrest, and China's corruption and inevitable & looming devaluation...are all icing

on the rotting cake of Japan. We are witnessing the ( rotting ) fruits of fifty years of divorcing the dollar from gold convertibility. We have willingly looked the other way, for the more comfortable way out, while our elcted leaders, and power brokers/special interests behind the scenes, engineered, the burgeoning world economy, into a central-bank club of collusion and manipulation, exporting U.S. dollar hegemony/imperiaslism/dominance around the world.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost....and SQUAWK !...

first in SouthEast asian nations such as Indonesia and So. Korea

; soon to spread to obvious crises in Japan, Hong Kong & China.

Creating an artificial world economy, via a fractional reserve centralized banking system that legalizes counterfeiting money/wealth....out of thin air....and exporting such a cancer around the world....does not bode will for freedom, and civilized life.

It is not nice to fool ( -pretend to fool ) "mother-nature". The chickens are coming home to roost; and the eggs they are laying....will be rotten.

(Wed May 27 1998 11:57 - ID#340344)
as Rhody wrote...
Please guys, It's not real!!!

DO NOT have a heart attack when you look at Kitco's

Silver chart. That ought to be the Dow chart, yes?

(Wed May 27 1998 11:59 - ID#7568)

I don't know if this will pass for insight, but it is at least a little info.

The action in gold overnight was linked to fund selling. The particular fund that did the selling is the same that is now short to the tune of 50 million ounces of silver. Their gold short position is now also fully tanked up.

When these guys come in to do their selling, the market waters just part and they do not get very good fills. The same is true when they come in on the buy side.

Silver is getting a bit a more pointed. Some of those that have liquidated their longs are capitulating fully and trying to establish shorts. The shorts that have been along for the ride are still trying to push the market lower. Last night on the Access market it seemed that everyone was waiting for one of Mr. PEI's legendary sweeps, so that they could make some 'easy' money. The sweep never came.

The early rally in silver this morning was on the back of a few million ounces of put selling in the July contract, coming out of Phibro ( WB land ) . Apparently Mr. PEI sold heavily into the rally and drove it back down.

Given the spikelike qualilty of the reversals, it appears that something meaningful is going on. There are now a lot of people looking for a 480 ish low in silver.

In the for what its worth dept., we sold a large portion of our position at the 540 level and are nibbling back in the options market at these levels. My hope is that one of these reversals catches on, and a short covering rally ensues. Given the size of the fund shorts that are out there, it could carry a very long way.

The generalized collapse in commodity prices is surely related to the Asian fiasco. The hardest thing to judge is how much is purely a function of investment flows and how much is a function of real shifts in supply and demand. I have a sneaking suspicion that the investment component of the downturn is not insignificant. I am trying to find out how much money has been withdrawn from the passive commodity index arena. With the GSCI down something over 30% peak to trough, I would think that a good deal of liquidation is taking place. A few billion dollars of investment flow in the commodities arena, can have a disproportionate effect.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:00 - ID#333127)
gold standard
Anybody know where Hillary is invested, has she been back to Switzerland lately?

(Wed May 27 1998 12:04 - ID#426220)

JTF: "The current equilibrium price of gold would be approximately $600/oz of more."

Amigo, from your lips to HIS ears!

Do I have evidence that the Fed is buying gold? Of course NOT! Nonetheless, some BODY has been buying all the Central Bank gold sales during the last 4-5 years. Who has been buying the CB gold of Belgium, Holland, Australia, Canada, Argentina and the other HAPLESS CBs? I'LL tell-ya with all certainty, it AIN'T John Q. Public.

Why are these Sales/Purchases shroued in TOTAL SECRECY?

(Wed May 27 1998 12:05 - ID#153102)
Godd Standard ? A phrase that probably never means the same thing to the speaker as to the hearer of it.

When gold goes up in $US, the $US is devaluing. When the $US and gold go up together, what is happening to all other fiat paper ? Where will it go if it is liquid ?

Somehow I just can't picture the guy whose hero is FDR taking the US back toward capitalism.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:07 - ID#342315)
rube re Hillary
Tracking the "queen" may be not only fun, but profitable, Charlie

(Wed May 27 1998 12:11 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re CB sales/purchases
Your incisive mind may help clear the fog ( smoke and mirrors ) if you get some cooperation. very good approach to this morass, Charlie

(Wed May 27 1998 12:11 - ID#266110)
@vronsky 10:13 --- Let the fireworks begin / only the first sentence was posted
According to the notation, there is the implication that 208 words were to follow your first sentence, but no additional words were attached. You said:

"Analyst Cliff Droke forecast 2 major stock market declines, possibly of biblical proportions."

208 words....

----- Did you intend to attach more to your post? And if so, would you be so kind to repeat the post with the added words? Danke

(Wed May 27 1998 12:13 - ID#401460)

By the way, where is she? Not seen for awhile?


PS: Russia is falling apart.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:13 - ID#36156)
Lock&Lode (@vronsky 10:13

Go to the Viewing Options on the top of this page and press FULL TEXT.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:16 - ID#356379)
@D.A. long term forecast

D.A., you have provided great insight into the dynamics of futures market action in both gold and silver. Can you give us your take on what will happen in the next month or two? Will the silver shorts reverse and go long after getting the weak longs out? Will we see $8 silver on the big rally?

(Wed May 27 1998 12:17 - ID#275294)
C.B. Gold Sales
Vronsky makes an excellent point. Who is buying all these central bank Gold sales?. I beleive I made this point about 6 months ago on thiss forum. There is some organization, Country, Government, buying all these CB's Gold sales. If that is the case they will be able to corner the market very successfully. Why don't they publish who is buying these CB's Gold sales?

(Wed May 27 1998 12:20 - ID#342315)
DA re comments
I'm not in the metals right now, but I appreciate your comments exremely. I hope you can keep them up. They help everyday execution immensely.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:22 - ID#338228)
Yamana Expands Lejano Silver Deposit, Identifies New Targets...

(Wed May 27 1998 12:28 - ID#270247)
vronsky & Gold Standard
Your thoughts could be accurate. From what I have seen of Greenspan's past he used to be a strong supporter of Gold and a Gold Standard.

Most people think that he sold out to the current finacial regime and took thier side. However, what if he saw an oppotunity to bring the system down from the inside? ( Really the only way it could be taken out. ) Instead of taking a stand against fiat currencies, he embraced them, gave everyone EXACTLY what they wanted. Kept interest rates low, printed more paper, reduced the publics perception of gold's value, ect. This caused the great bull stock market and many corporations and thier owners have become very "paper" wealthy.

But AG had to know that the current situation would have to end. He knew that the bill would eventually need to be paid in one way or another. What if he hasn't been trying to avoid paying the bill, but making it so no one could escape paying the "bill"? Paying this huge "bill" would force the system to change, and the only logical change would to bring the dollar back on to some form of the gold standard.

It is just a thought I have had floating around in my head, and your comments seemed be along similar lines.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:32 - ID#340459)
Interesting "THOUGHTS" from ANOTHER

Mr. Kosares,

I know you have also seen where the Rothschild prepares computers for a change , perhaps to Euro market gold!
Much will be the commissions earned in this area. Some investors say "gold loses face in low price" and "gold is a
dead asset". I say, a travel to London will offer much education, as the "city" trades more gold than exists!


I offer this for consideration by all.

Do you know the value of gold?

From the day of our birth we are taught to value all things using the one factor alone, currency! Can one contemplate
the value of all possessions in other terms? Do you not have to think first as to "how many dollars is that worth" then
"how many dollars is this worth" to compare two items? If it is deep within our mind, that we can know value only in
terms of paper, to this I ask, can one know value at all!

The Western mind does focus on "what I buy today for the lowest price". Yet, in this modern world economy, the
lowest price is always the function of "the currency exchange rate"? The Yen, it is compared to the dollar today, and
used to purchase goods. One year later and the Japan offers these goods for much less, as the Yen has fallen to the
US$. The currency value of this purchase, was it "true " today or a year ago? Understand, all value judgments today
are as subject to "exchange rate competition"! It is in "this exchange rate valuations" that the private citizen does
denominate all net worth! A safe way to hold the wealth for your future, yes? You should ask a Korean or the
Indonesian ?

One should grasp that "today, your wealth, is not what your currency say it is"! In this world, paper currency is for
trade, only! It is for the buying, selling, earning and paying, not for knowing the value of your family holdings! Know
this, "the printers of paper do never tell the owner that the money has less value, that judgment is reserved for the
person you offer that currency to"! Again, I ask, how can we know a true value for our assets, when they are
known only in currency that finds it's worth, as in the exchange rate for another currency?

Many will "think long and hard on this", but will find little reason for this position. For it is in your history to know only
"things valued in paper terms". Some say, "I hold investments of great increase these past years, and am much ahead
of the inflation, if it should come". I say, "your investments, worldwide, have moved little, as it has been the
currencies that denominate your assets, that fall a great deal". The price inflation that comes, it is larger than your
vision can see! Your past, holds little of knowing value outside of currencies, this does block the good view!

We watch the approach of this change, and discuss it, together, yes? It will truly be "a gold market as none before".

There is more: Today, the world reserve currency holds the exchange rate of one dollar equals one three hundredth
of an ounce of gold! It is this rate, that makes the dollar, not as the Indonesian currency. Perhaps a secure thought?
However, even this 1/300 rate is also subject to "exchange rate competition"! This new rate was purchased by the
acceptance of the "new paper gold" as equal value to "the physical gold"! This large, new paper gold market was
created to increase the supply of "traded gold". The physical gold supply alone could not be increased to bring the
dollar into the mid to lower 300s exchange rate area, there by making it "strong in gold". But, as in all new markets,
for the "traded gold arena" to accept a "paper gold item" in great amounts, it required new colatteral/assets to give
this paper item "integrity"! That "integrity" was found in oil!

Some say, "gold fall because noone was buying it". I say, "gold fall because many were buying it"! They buy as the
"trading market" was made "much fat" with added paper! Understand this: The US$ price of gold could only fall if a
market existed for paper gold priced lower each time of offer! If the price did not fall, this paper market "could not
function" as "it would not be profitable to the writer"! It was, for many years, in the good interest of all, for the dollar
to find a gold price close to production cost. That time has now much passed!

One day soon, this "paper gold item" may lose it's "integrity from oil" by way of "competition" from a new reserve
currency! In that day, "paper gold" will rush to become "physical gold" as "dollar gold contracts" rush to become
"Euro gold contracts". You see, the value of the gold lost from the Euro CB sales will return in the form of a "Euro
strong in gold". The "gold reserves" held for the EURO will offer strength, but it will be the total destruction of the
dollar gold market that does make " this currency go home"!

When the future comes, and one holds asset values in dollar terms, many may discover, there wealth was not as this
currency said it was! In that day, you will know your assets, as expressed in the real money of our fathers! This new
dollar/gold exchange rate will end your search for the

"the true value of gold"

Thank you


(Wed May 27 1998 12:33 - ID#342315)
Henry De SNB
Thanx a lot , but I can get up the web and then nothing responds?? I remember you sent me this before. Same thing- no response. It must be me. I did get a reply from WGC for them and they said no email. I have address , phone and telex.

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 12:35 - ID#212323)
Sorry for the delayed response. I was, of all things, having a quality heavy duty safe installed...always a gratifying experience.

Your active involvement in making payments and gifts of gold is inspiring. My young cousin graduated last week, and though I could not attend ( due to my travels ) I was told that she loved her gift from me--a 1998 gold coin ( Australian Nugget/Kangaroo ) . For my sister's birthday I sent a gold Canadian Maple Leaf--she was thrilled.

I am not shameless...I will resort to subversive techniques, if I must, to get people thinking properly about the nature of money.

Paul Hein's work on Vronsky's g o l d-e a g l e site is excellent material to get people introduced to fiat vs. gold in clear enjoyable tales.

Ever my wish to you... Fair Winds!

got gold?

(Wed May 27 1998 12:41 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Maaannnnn, THAT was a nice vacation. Only problem is in catching up on all the posting that goes on about here. Finding a broke computer when I got home doesn't help in that regard. Think a lightning surge crept through the safeguards.

Am I ever glad I kept slapping my hand away from the phone last week when thinking about purchasing some physical. Vibes just said no. Gotta listen to them. But time IS getting near. How 'bout those fifty dollar swings in paladium! Quite impressive! Yesterday, June palladium at 350. Today, 305. What a concept! RJ, looks like the thought that platinum would turn up with a decline in palladium price was not quite right. At least yet. Just gotta buy stuff at support and keep a tight stop, just in case. But looking like your call for lows in metals in June has a good chance of being correct. Odds of it happening this month are about slim to none. I can wait 'till June.

Mozel -- YOU'RE GooooooooD! But then, I've said that before.

Off to a meeting. Away........

(Wed May 27 1998 12:51 - ID#340459)
Russia TRIPLES interest rates - Can Usury bring Salvation ?
A ruble rescue with punch

Analysts say Russia's tripling of interest
rates has worked in the past

May 27, 1998: 12:38 p.m. ET

Roiling the ruble -
May 26, 1998

Experts mull
Russia shake-up -
March 24, 1998

Central Bank of

CNNfn world

More related
NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - Russia's stock markets took
another tailspin Wednesday despite an eleventh-hour
scramble by the government to lure back investors by
tripling interest rates and issuing public reassurances
that things are under control.
Russia's benchmark RTS stock index plunged 12
percent Wednesday as fleeing investors with one eye
on Asia and the other on Russia's depressed domestic
economy wiped out the market's entire gain from
Another leading market barometer, the Moscow
Times index of Russia's 50 largest companies, lost
11.5 percent of its value, bringing the year-to-date
decline to around 50 percent.
"You've got a situation now where you've got blind
panic, especially among Russians," said Martin Diggle,
a director of the brokerage house Brunswick. "They're
selling at any price they can get. It's self-fulfilling, it's
The risky decision by Russia's Central Bank to
raise its Lombard refinancing rate from 50 to 150
percent was a shrewd gamble aimed at beating back
what one observer called the "psychosis" overtaking
the market in recent days.

Now they'll get their IMF money

"They're doing what's proved to work in the past,
which is to tighten rates," said Robert Hormats, an
economist with Goldman Sachs International.
Hormats added that the rate move would likely
spur the International Monetary Fund to disburse the
latest $700 million installment on a three-year $10
billion loan program to Russia. The Kremlin has
recently intimated that it may seek even more aid to
buttress the ruble and reboot the economy.
"They'll get their IMF money and that should help a
little bit," Hormats said.
The new rate marks the highest level since
February 1996. In a measure of how the crisis has
gathered pace, the refinancing rate stood at 30 percent
last week. The rate is widely seen as a cap to treasury
bill yields, which soared 20 points to around 80 percent
at one stage Wednesday, and a tool to defend the
battered ruble.
Analysts say a stabilization package of the kind
offered by the IMF is crucial if the Russian
government hopes to persuade its own citizens as well
as outside investors that it is serious about reducing its
deficit and spurring reform.
President Boris Yeltsin himself nodded to these
concerns Tuesday when he ordered spending cuts of
more than $6.5 billion, or about 12 percent, in the fiscal
1998 budget.

$200 billion socked away abroad

Russia depends heavily on overseas investment to
help finance its budget deficit. Hence, any exodus of
that capital is viewed as a major threat, since it erodes
confidence in the sovereign currency and, by
extension, devalues Russian assets in market-value
terms. Analysts estimate that Russians have socked
away more than $200 billion abroad since the early
Getting even a small portion of that money back
would help the country enormously at a time when it is
facing a wage-arrears crisis of mammoth proportions,
and is trying to push through the privatization of a
major state-owned oil company, Rosneft.
In a setback for Russia's economy, no serious
bidders had materialized for the company as of
Wednesday, at its initial offering price of $2.1 billion.
For Russia's bankers, the interest rate jump marks
a stunning strategic about-face less than six months
after the government expressed hope it would be able
to lower the rate to 14 percent, from 21 percent in
The obvious peril behind such a drastic rate hike,
analysts say, is that, the government will have less
money in the long-term for other vital purposes,
including infrastructure reforms and debt reduction.
But experts say the immediate benefits far outweigh
these downsides.
"I think that this is what we call a cold shower,"
said Aleksandr Rappoport, the vice president of
Grayson, Auerbach & Co., a New York investment
firm. "We need a cold shower. This is a brutal but
brave measure. Money will now come in to the
market. Maybe we will see concrete results
tomorrow All the measures that the government has
taken here are meant to give immediate results."
Before the Central Bank stepped into the fray,
Russian short-term government security yields had
soared 20 percentage points to 80 percent
Wednesday. Earlier, the Finance Ministry had placed
its 294-day t-bill -- known as a GKO in Russian -- at
61.07 percent.
In a related development, the IMF's chief Russia
specialist said Wednesday he saw "no objective case"
for devaluing the Russian ruble, the move feared most
by overseas investors. Echoing the Russian Central
Bank's view, John Odling-Smee argued that the
current economic travails stemmed from a crisis of
confidence, and not from a shortage of hard currency
"There is no objective case for devaluing the ruble
in terms of Russia's competitiveness of exports and
the medium- to long-term flows of capital,"
Odling-Smee said, answering questions at a seminar in
the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:54 - ID#20748)
Watch the action in Dow between 2:30 and 3 pm and between 10:30 and 11 am. That's when the market movers and shakers, led by the PPT, do their work.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:56 - ID#229277)
KJR: AG and a new gold standard
I doubt it. Recall that AG stood up in 1979 to support Reagan's proposed cut taxes and increase spending budget as "sound budget planning" and years later lobbied congress on behalf of Michael Milken to loosen regulations on savings and loans, referencing Milken's "proven record of sound investment thinking." Sure, everyone makes mistakes. But I see the pattern of oppotunism. AG is led by the nose by the strongest financial interest of the day. I don't see how AG could return us to a gold standard even if he was to revert to his previous way of thinking; the events that would force such a back-to-the-future move will have already left AG completely discredited and in no position to make such a move. And anyone who thinks "everything will be ok" because AG is at the helm is in for a really big surprise.

(Wed May 27 1998 12:58 - ID#408280)
How much longer?
Red Ink for most of the Worlds markets!

(Wed May 27 1998 12:59 - ID#335379)
I would like to buy the PPT, they could perhaps help my yellow (jaundiced) portfolio

(Wed May 27 1998 13:01 - ID#22956)
This is VERY interesting to needs repetition.
From the D.A. ( he looks like Fox M ) files:

Date: Wed May 27 1998 11:59

D.A. ( little.bits.and.pieces ) ID#7568:

Copyright  1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


I don't know if this will pass for insight, but it is at least a little info.

The action in gold overnight was linked to fund selling. The particular fund that did the selling is the same that is

now short to the tune of 50 million ounces of silver. Their gold short position is now also fully tanked up.


The last sentence in particular....... ( and poor Midas just got a chill up the spinage ) ......... ( brrrrrrrrr it's cooooooold ) .......never go too BIG.....or too small...... ( ! ) ....

D.A. - once again.......yu dam man ( ! ) what do you say to a little wager..............280 (  ) ( ? ) ....... ( BIG wink ) . search for excellence.....perhaps a trip to Yale................................ ( not ) .


(Wed May 27 1998 13:03 - ID#43460)
Japanese bank ratings cut. Banzai!!
Moodys has downgraded credit ratings at five major Japanese banks. Rumblings of worries about the entire Japanese banking system have been heard.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:06 - ID#210235)
@Don't know why you're lookin' for Hillary
but I found her for you, preaching to the choir:

Hillary Clinton Out of Control

The Hotline


Hillary Rodham Clinton on 5/26 was on the stump for Boxer, delivering "a fire-and-brimstone speech," charging that Boxer's GOP foes race are "against

democracy" and "must be beaten for the good of the country." As the "increasingly tight race" between Issa and Fong turned nasty, HRC "used strong

words of her" own to energize Boxer supporters. HRC "painted the Senate race as an apocalyptic fight between right and wrong, with conspiratorial

forces at work": "We're engaged in a great struggle over which way we're going in the 21st century." The luncheon fundraiser drew 600 people at

$250/plate ( Lubman, San Jose Mercury News, 5/27 ) .

Boxer also received support from HRC on a piece of legislation that could bring support from both child advocate and environmental groups. HRC, in an

elementary school appearance, endorsed Boxer's Children's Environmental Protection Act, which would ban pesticides in public schools ( Guthrie, San

Francisco Examiner, 5/27 ) . HRC talked about watching her nephew -- who is Boxer's grandson -- "chasing the President's dog, Buddy": "We're here

because of Zachary. You can't help but be reminded when you watch a toddler explore the world ... how much a part of the environment a child is"

( Hytha & Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle, 5/27 ) .

Cage Rattler
(Wed May 27 1998 13:07 - ID#33184)
BBG Economic Review
Report#5 / 22-May-1998

The DJIA made new price highs since the last report dated April 15, l998. This has been without new highs in volume and with a continuing divergence between the DJIA and the broader market indicators and with negative on balance volume. The Russell 2000 short term moving average is now below the intermediate term moving average, giving a sell signal. That is what would could be expected if we are in the last leg of the bull market from the l982 low and near a market turning point to the down side. Although it is very dangerous to call exact market turns, nevertheless we have no alternative if we are to stand up and be counted and invest real money. Frankly, we expect that there could be one more short up move on the DJIA to a new all time high but, on balance, we do not believe that it is worth waiting for. If it does happen we will use the opportunity to short the S&P500 futures index. In our view, the market psychology has already turned as has Federal Reserve Board policy to restrict credit. Rising interest rates will reverse the wealth effect with devastating consequence for the stock market. The cycles of credit expansion and contraction are also cycles of optimism and pessimism.

We view Janet Reno's admission that she has gone back to using a paper and pencil rather then a computer as significant. Here we have the attorney general of the USA admitting to the world that she is computer illiterate and nevertheless declaring that Microsoft is illegally abusing its' monopoly power in personal computer operating systems to monopolize the market for Internet browsers. How long ago was it that there was no such thing as: Internet browsers, personal computers, Internet? Today's personal computer is more powerful then the super computer of 25 years ago and next year's network computer will deliver more computing power and function still. The market for personal computer operating systems is less than 3% of the overall computer software market and frankly, in our view, is not relevant.. Microsoft may have a stock market capitalization of over $200 billion but it only has gross sales of just over $10 billion. The correct legal principal is not monopoly over personal computer operation systems but monopoly over computer processing. No one is close to getting such a monopoly. Never the less, Microsoft has been the stock market leader and has in the last 30 days dropped by over 15%. This is the triumph of the illiterate negativity of Janet et al over the positive free market innovation and wealth creation of North America's best brains. We think the worm has turned. The civilized negativity of North America's government lawyers has just as much capacity to destroy wealth as Jakarta's rioters burning to death Chinese merchants. The true motivation in each case is the same..

You should be completely out of all USA $ denominated assets. Cash should be held in DM denominated accounts. It is time to be short the biotech and some computer shares. It is not yet time to be long hard asset shares. Long term investors should have been engaged in an orderly liquidation of their DJIA and S&P500 positions if they read our prior reports. If you still have any DJIA or S&P500 positions, you should sell all of them now.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:07 - ID#335379)

(Wed May 27 1998 13:07 - ID#425128)

(Wed May 27 1998 13:08 - ID#335379)
Hello Midas: Worked for what, strangulation???

(Wed May 27 1998 13:14 - ID#270247)
What you say makes sense. My brain was just trying to find another way to look at what is going on. Back to the drawing board.
By the way I have never felt like "Everything is going to be okay." no matter who is in control. I'm beginning to wonder if that is a luxury I will ever get.
Buying gold does seem to help though ( even with the recent price dive ) .

(Wed May 27 1998 13:14 - ID#347235)
After having finally found the fraud ANOTHER collected in one spot, I have read many of his posts. I fail to understand why so many people hang on his every word. He is wrong in his predictions as much as Fartful. I think he is the altar ego of Michael Kosares.

I think of the current drop in POG as a BUYING opportunity. I will clean out my retired pay from the savings account today and buy all I can.

My plan is to buy it now hold for several years and sell it when I need the money, right now I have enough for my needs. Comments? SHALOM

(Wed May 27 1998 13:19 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- your words are always appreciated
D.A.: Just saw your post. I find it hard to believe that silver shorts would pile in at a little over $5.00/oz. Either they have money to burn, or silver is ready to go lower. Do you know if WB still has his 130+ million oz of silver? If so, I would guess that he is buying with both hands.

My guess is the collapse of the commodities markets is a major driving force behind the gold and silver bears of the last few weeks. Do you think the commodities price index is going to break through its 10 year lows? If so -- real bad for gold.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:23 - ID#194311) we divergence?
I noticed correlation topping out on your latest chart.

Must be getting close?

(Wed May 27 1998 13:24 - ID#373284)
I am not the legend I thought I was. I have just been mugged by a two year old. I
, I, I AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! And yes I gave the little one a soverign. Always performing the good deeds...

(Wed May 27 1998 13:25 - ID#252150)
Just got a nice fill on PDG Jan2000 Leaps
Jan. 2000--now that should be an interesting time. They only have to go up $2.30 in 18 months to be in the money.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:26 - ID#194311)
PPT @ 13:30
right on cue.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:30 - ID#340302)
@ALL...Switzerland discusses selling half their gold reserves....
...hardehardeharderhar!!! Oh, be still my beating heart! Oh, panic! Oh, the sheer horror!!!

Well, dere dey go again, duh?

Switzerland probably does NOT have much gold to sell anymore. They stole it from the Jews for the past five decades...they laundered Nazi gold ( and finally admitted it yesterday!! ) ...and no doubt they have probably stolen it from their own people, selling it off to finance various Swiss cheese factories over the past several decades.

If they ever announce a sale, then I am certain it will be for perceptual effect, designed solely to scare the hell out of novice gold investors. Most likely, it will be a publicly announced sale of gold ( CB to CB of course ) that they have long since disposed of many years ago.

Are the Swiss gold reserves sufficient today to provide 50% backing to the Swiss Franc? I wonder? If the current ultra-low levels of COMEX gold inventories are any indication of the current level of Swiss gold reserves, then ANOTHER is correct. What an upside to gold we will see when real buying pressure occurs!!

A third party inspection team should be appointed to go over and verify their alleged gold reserves.

But, Switzerland, keep telling ad nauseum us about your future gold sales because...




(Wed May 27 1998 13:30 - ID#286230)
I'm sure you will do what is best for you. I'm still not so sure that gold will not get to the $250 level. It is hard to make an prediction/guess now. We have the Asian problems, Clinton problems, India problems and more--still it doesn't go up. The people who will make it go up are still not buying--it is close to the level of production cost--as far as I can tell. Commodities can go lower-- if only for a short time-- than their cost of production.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:31 - ID#340459)
@Nicomedas, Brother I dont understand your post ??
Best of Luck

(Wed May 27 1998 13:32 - ID#284255)
Getting closer?

One day does not a market make.
In this high risk period of time.

Fri/Mon should be interesting.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:39 - ID#229277)
KJR: At the end of the day (and I don't mean necessarily THIS day) gold is
the one investment that you can count on if you really, truly believe that currency and equity markets are on a serious downtrend. The evidence is mounting. This just in from BusinessWire:

"Investors had been betting that corporate earnings would rebound in the second half of the year, which helped to justify current high stock valuations, analysts said.

"Wall Street guru Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's global strategist, said the tone of equity markets around the world is deteriorating.

"'After so many false alarms, a serious decline could finally be coming,' Biggs said in a report. He cut the stocks element in his model portfolio in preference for cash."

Ok, so I did that a month ago. Didn't jump the gun too badly. Maybe bought gold a little early, too. But what the heck.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:43 - ID#347235)
Thank you for your kind thoughts. If it goes to 250 I will buy more, if it goes to 200 I will still buy, regardles of how low it goes I will buy because my plan is to hold for at least 10 years. Shalom

(Wed May 27 1998 13:44 - ID#404246)
The comming stock market crash
I've been thinking. ( Bad idea I know ) .

If we have a stock market crash, down 30% or more, and everyone is running around looking for money to cover their butts. Who is going to have money left to buy my silver or gold contract?

Since most would be trying to liquidate all their holdings, including PM contracts, in order to cover their butts, would not PM contracts fall in price because there was no one around with enough loose money to buy them?

Would not most contract holders get margin calls because of this price drop and be forced out of the market at a loss if they could not cover the call?

I realize that the price drop probably would not last very long but just one margin call can knock many people out of a contract.

Just a thought?

Any comments?

(Wed May 27 1998 13:49 - ID#340302)
Desperation is developing on the part of gold short sellers...
...once again as they trot out the tired old "Switzerland wants to sell gold scam."

Where is the original thinking on the part of these Wall Street wundkerkinds? How long will they cry "Wolf!" before they bore the entire world into a deep slumber?

Gold is looking exceptionally strong today in the face of a burgeoning derivatives problem on Wall Street. I would hope it will confirm its negative beta by the end of the day.



(Wed May 27 1998 13:49 - ID#194311)
there will be a correction...PPT taking the day off.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:53 - ID#36156)
Charlie - SNB
It's not you. The same thing just happened to me. I can get to their HomePage but once there nothing works no matter how many times I click on a button.

I suspected something wrong with their HOME HTML file so I shortened the URL to bypass it. I used...

... and it worked fine then. Try it.


(Wed May 27 1998 13:55 - ID#425128)

(Wed May 27 1998 13:56 - ID#196178)
Any comments on significance of an up close on gold?

(Wed May 27 1998 13:56 - ID#269409)
@ Gold Report, RJ/Farfel
Gold market is ASB

Re the RJ ? Farfel quasi's nice to look at something and know you're not involved! ( Pssst..RJ, you've made 99.99% of the scoring points )

EB...yer tempting me with that leverage talk dude! Lookin at the Plat.

(Wed May 27 1998 13:58 - ID#340302)
@ALL...I feel bad for Treasury and bond holders...
...and holders of State, Municipal, and corporate bonds.

In a severe stagflation, the interest rates will spurt to preclude capital outflows and a resultant plummetting U.S. dollar. Moreover, in the event of a market debacle, many bond issuers on both government and corporate levels will default owing to inadequate liquidity.

The Government's continued strenuous efforts to direct fleeing equities investors into bonds rather than gold/silver is perfectly understandable. However, such action will result in many bondholders losing their shirts.

It is no small wonder that smart big money ( like Warren Buffett ) has been selling treasuries ( according to FORBES ) and buying silver and other hard assets over the past year.



(Wed May 27 1998 14:00 - ID#242325)
Gold rebounds sharply from its low and actually is outperforming platinum today. What is the world coming to? Will the sun soon rise in the west?

RJ: You correctly point out there is more gold in the world today than ever before. But that has been true every year since time immemorial. This includes 1971 when the great 1970s gold bull began.

It is all a matter of demand. The supply of dollars is growing far faster than the supply of gold and there still is a shortgage under the current rules of international finance. When investment demand for gold takes off, the price will skyrocket regardless of record supplies. But when? That is the 64 billion dollar question.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:01 - ID#20748)
Jerry Favors cites 8796
as critical support for Dow.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:02 - ID#340302)
@LGB re: the RJ/Farfel Debate...
...hey, come on now, I didn't score THAT badly, did I?

Please go back and recount.



(Wed May 27 1998 14:03 - ID#340302)
@LGB...personally, I had a good bit of fun last night...
...I get a real kick out of RJ.

He REALLY does remind me of myself as a younger lad.



(Wed May 27 1998 14:06 - ID#210235)
@From the new york stock market
Breadth poor. 10 new highs, 178 new lows ( for the year ) , latest from CNBC.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:06 - ID#425128)

(Wed May 27 1998 14:11 - ID#425128)
ya kelkun??
ya kelkun???

(Wed May 27 1998 14:11 - ID#347457)
Desperation is developing on the part of gold bugs
...Once again as they trot out the tired old "manipulation, plunge teams, CB, them d*mn short traders"

Where is the original thinking on the part of these goldbugs wundkerkinds?
How long will they cry "Wolf!" before they bore the entire world into a deep

Gold is not looking good today in the face of falling paper markets and problems in Asia. I would hope it would change by the end of the day.


;- ) Sorry Farfell, it was not me, I swear, my Netscape browser did it !! ;- )

(Wed May 27 1998 14:12 - ID#340302) crack me up!
...I got a good laugh out of that one!



(Wed May 27 1998 14:12 - ID#229277)
farfel: Warren Buffett says he has a minor 3% position in silver and that
the press on it is overblown. Unless you aware of other hard assets he has sunk his cash into, I bet he's keeping cash at the ready for buying near the bottom. Will he buy PMs? I bet he's keeping the option open.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:16 - ID#340302) are correct, sir...
...I have no doubt he has a helluva lot more cash than hard assets.

However, for Warren Buffett, silver assets @ 3% of total holdings is one helluva big investment, don't you think?



(Wed May 27 1998 14:24 - ID#347457)
@Farfel - with all that money I am loosing
I have to do something to cheer me up

(Wed May 27 1998 14:36 - ID#20748)
Jerry Favors
The 8796 number as critical support for Dow was cited by him as an "intraday" number. That number was breached today.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:36 - ID#350179)

(Wed May 27 1998 14:37 - ID#340302)
@ALL...Gold did berry good today...
...despite The King of Gold, Switzerland, announcing they want to sell half their reserves ( again, Zzzzzz ) ...despite the stock market tumbling hard, scaring those who think everything out there is going to topple... gold tripped a mere $1.70 and came back well off its lows. This in the face of some notable weakness in two of the PM market's favorite white metals.

All my chartist can tell me about stochastics, trend lines, and polynomials confirming a gold bear until you are blue in the face.

I don't buy it.

It looks like a brilliant shiny gold bull to me.

More excitement IN DA WORKS.



(Wed May 27 1998 14:38 - ID#252150)
A tired old refrain@Once again the chubby ,cherubic little Swiss boy cried wolf
but the neighbors are on to his games, & only a few peeked through their curtains. Would'nt it be a pity if the next time he cried wolf, the wolves actually appeared but no one heeded his calls & the ravenous beasts tore the little bastard apart?

Crystal Ball
(Wed May 27 1998 14:40 - ID#287367)
@ Tolerant
Hey, Kevan. Spent a little time at the "Investing in Mining" Conference at Marriott Marquis, saw Steve Kaplan ( but didn't bug him since I could see he was busy ) . You never saw so many people trying to get you to invest in little holes in the ground. I kept some souvenirs to show you. Remember, ole' Crystal Ball said $5.00 silver. Namast'e !

Crystal Ball
(Wed May 27 1998 14:43 - ID#287367)
@ F *
Oh, and by the way, IDGASIBM.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:43 - ID#57232)
SP-500 Intraday index
All: Sure does look like the PPT is saving their funds this time. Don't recall seeing this kind of steady drop two days in a row for a long time. So far, the decline is orderly. It will be interesting to see when the baby boomers ( and dipsters ) pile back in. We also have cash coming from Japan and possibly from South America, waiting on the sidelines as well. A steady drop like this will be even more devastating for the weaker markets, such as Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and ?

What would Oldman say at this point? Only that if we are to have a market bear, it will not be pretty, because there are alot of baby boomers who do not even know what a bear is.

Oldman -- I'd love to see what you think of the spoos now!

(Wed May 27 1998 14:46 - ID#254201)
If, If, If
If you have been following these posts over the last few weeks and waited for the correction target area of 5.10-4.90 to be reached you were rewarded with a low risk entry point of 5.10 or lower basis July Silver. Keep a close only stop under 5.00. We've had two opportunities to buy under 5.10 in the last week rarely does a market give you three chances to buy and when it does odds are you don't want it anyway. If 5.00 holds I would consider it a wave 2 bottom. Next objective wave 1 of 3... $7.00.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:48 - ID#288369)
@Rangy Lake Fishing Report..........
Finally landed ol' Walter........40m@31/32.........good girth, huh? studio.settin'hook! GET THE NET! GET THE NET! Help!, Isure!

(Wed May 27 1998 14:48 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Farfel -- One can buy low, or one can buy lower. I aim to buy 'my precious' lower. Now trading, one can do that ALL the time. At least when not in meetings...

(Wed May 27 1998 14:49 - ID#335379)
Hello Midas: Apologies, please.. You mentioned Russia upping the interest rate
And them saying it worked before.. My comment was that it worked before to strangle people financialy...
Again apologies for the miss understanding..


PS . my other comment was that I would like to buy the PPT to help my yellow portfolio, as it is a bit jaundiced.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:51 - ID#57232)
Russian Collapse?
All: And we are worried about 1-2% down per day. I think the Russina markets went down over 12% today. I think the foreign money is fleeing -- not a good sign at all. Last I heard interest rates were at a 150% annual rate.

(Wed May 27 1998 14:55 - ID#223391)
@A third wave down ahead?
Asians, Japanese get more Bad News

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 14:57 - ID#212323)
Miro 14:24 and all others...
What is this nonsense about "worrying about all that money" that you're losing? They print that stuff up every day. Do you also worry about all the newspaper you're losing on trash collection day? Of course not!

If you "sell" your gold for the same kind of greenback with which you bought your gold, you sold too soon. This is the only market timing advice I will give. The greenback will one day be dead Dead DEAD. The 'price of gold' will be astronomical imediately prior to the greenback's demise. Why would you want all of those corpses laying around stinking up the place. Hold onto your gold until money is again what it should be.

Too many countries are now pinned to the mat by the IMF. It is one thing to keep common citizens in the dark, forever victimized by governments' fiat currencies; it is quite another to victimize another government through the same fiat system that they too understand. Listen to me now...with Russia falling hard into the same IMF soup as SEasia, the fiat system is more at risk than through the oil for gold system. The writing is on the wall in all languages. Can you read?

got gold?

(Wed May 27 1998 15:04 - ID#252127)
Looking at it another way

The PPT is allowing the DOW to fall so that some US investors will buy T-bills to make up for the outflow from treasuries by foreign holders.

If SEA money is said to be flowing into the US it's bull. It's my opinion that the SEA countris have effectively finished what was portioned for fiat investments and are now reconsidering real money.

In any event the PPT will soon be attempting to push the Dow up, but it will soon be a helpless move.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:16 - ID#153102)
@Retired_Soldier @Jack
How do you plan to get your gold out of the USA ?

@Jack Yes, they herd them to the Bond Corral.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:41 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Jack -- The PPT came through. Time for another runup 'till it again won't go no further.

Flash Gordon__A
(Wed May 27 1998 15:47 - ID#327210)
Terribly quiet on here. Is my ticker playing up, or has the dow regained all its losses? Comments please?

Mr. Mick
(Wed May 27 1998 15:48 - ID#345321)
All: Lower PM prices + lower stock market =
deflation. Comments????????

(Wed May 27 1998 15:48 - ID#347235)
@ Mozel

(Wed May 27 1998 15:49 - ID#210235)
@S. Koreans strike to
protest IMF-required measures.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:50 - ID#347235)
@ Mozel
Sorry hit wrong key. There are many ways, you will forgive me if I don't publish my intent. Much of it is already in safe hands across the sea.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:50 - ID#434158)
Buffet, silver and Treasuries @farfel
Sorry to strike a discordant note, but Buffet did not sell treasuries to buy silver. One of the remarkable things about his move was that he bought both at about the same time. Also worth noting: he said he had been waiting to buy silver.....for 20 YEARS!!! If I model myself after Buffet, first of all it's too late.... and second, I'm not sure I have the patience. Not to mention the smarts!

(Wed May 27 1998 15:52 - ID#359316)
Sacriligeous Thoughts
Massive rally in futures market was seen at US market open today.
Just the thing to kick start the Dow when it's depressed by the news
from Asia and Europe. Should that fail, ramp it up at the end, a
quick burst conserves the dry powder, since many investors look at
the closing figure and could care less about intraday action.
Just my 2 euros.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:52 - ID#340459)
I think we should send send an official e-mail to SNB officials from Kitco Forum asking them to
refrain from constant farting in Public. Their decorum in this area leaves much to be desired. Switzerland is all gloss on the surface but buried underneath is looted / illegal wealth from Dictators, drug lords, Third World Mafia and Underworld. I also want to question the sagacity of repeated announcements, Are they looking for a lower and lower price for what they purport to sell ?

(Wed May 27 1998 15:55 - ID#350179)
Scent of a bear

Mr. Mick
(Wed May 27 1998 15:55 - ID#345321)
Everything is under control in Canada - NOT.................
Wednesday May 27, 3:16 pm Eastern Time

Thiessen says would support dollar if confidence lost

MONTREAL, May 27 ( Reuters ) - Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen said on
Wednesday the central bank would intervene to support the Canadian dollar if there were a loss of
confidence in the currency.

``If there were a loss of confidence in the Canadian dollar the Bank of Canada would most certainly
respond,'' Thiessen told a news conference following his speech to a Montreal financial market
globalization conference.

``I don't think you should conclude that we don't care about the Canadian dollar because we do
care...we do take it into account, and we do care about it,'' Thiessen said when pressed by
reporters to comment on the recent weakness of the Canadian dollar.

Thiessen declined to comment on the reasons behind the selloff in the Canadian dollar that has
occurred since the central bank delivered its semi-annual monetary report, except to say the report
should not be read as a commitment by the bank about the direction of interest rates.

The governor reiterated that economic indicators since the report was written have shown perhaps
better momentum than when the report was produced. But he said it was still ``too early to make a
judgment'' about whether a change in policy is needed.

``You will see in that monetary policy report that we did talk about the fact that current monetary
conditions seemed to us to be reasonable, but that we expected to see quite a lot of fluctuations in
monetary conditions because these are rather uncertain times. And I would essentially stick with
what we said in that monetary policy report,'' he said.

Thiessen said some market players may have misinterpreted the report as a commitment by the bank
with respect to interest rates.

``I remind you that we were talking about making a judgment about monetary conditions, which
include interest rates and the exchange rate, and not just interest rates, and we were not talking
about a commitment. We were talking about our judgment about what looks reasonable now,''
Thiessen said.

``It's very important to remember that as situations change you've got to re-examine it. If shocks hit
us we have to take that into account. If we make a mistake in terms of how much momentum there is
in the economy we have to take that into account,'' he said

In response a question about the central bank's monetary conditions index, the governor said the
MCI ``was never as much of a focus as people thought it was'' but added the bank did watch the
movement of the MCI over time.

(Wed May 27 1998 15:57 - ID#340459)
@Nicodemus, I am sorry Brother for delay in understanding your point, Thanks

(Wed May 27 1998 15:58 - ID#342376)
Was this posted already?
From Colin Seymors' page....................

"Gold down further in Europe, silver steadies" ( see below ) : A newswire report today [27/5/98] on a Swiss government proposal to halve the Swiss National Bank's required store of gold from 2,600 tonnes. They said that for monetary policy, around half is sufficient, while the other half can be used for other purposes.

This is in fact a reiteration of what has already been said, on Friday 24th April 1998, and previously on Friday 24th October, 1997. These proposals as well as requiring approval in Parliament, must also be submitted to a popular referendum.

Although opinion polls have shown support for Swiss gold sales, on a much smaller scale, to support charitable funds to compensate for Nazi gold hoarding, the sale of large quantities of gold in abandonment of a Swiss tradition of gold backed currency is an entirely different matter. This was addressed on 5th November, 1997, by USA Gold who reported that "recent polling in Switzerland over the gold issue showed the Swiss people are opposed by a comfortable margin".

USA Gold also commented then that any potential Swiss gold sales are likely to be much less than 1400 tons and will be made over a 5-10 year period starting from year 2000.

The timing of the original Swiss gold sale announcement coincided with that occasion, on the 23rd October 1997, when the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down -1211.47 points or 10.41% at 10426.30, as a result of currency speculator attacks on the HK currency peg against the U.S. dollar. The intraday drop of 14.6 percent was the biggest recorded since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

The very day after this major event in world markets, i.e. Friday 24th October 1997, the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Finance Ministry made the original "disposal of 1,400 metric tons of gold" statement. Then, gold dropped $16.10/oz to $308.60 after a group of experts appointed by Swiss National Bank and the Swiss finance ministry proposed selling 1,400 tonnes.

Just a few days after the HK drop and the original Swiss gold announcement, we had the "mini crash" of October 1997! The Dow Jones ended October 27th down -554.26 ( a record points drop ) at 7161.15. On the way it triggered not one but two of the larger market curbs ( halts in trading ) that were put in place after 1987 to prevent another crash- the first time that these levels had been triggered.

With "Asian markets on their knees" overnight, yesterday's falls in the US indices, and a 2% fall in the FTSE100, can it be any coincidence that the Swiss trotted out this gold announcement once more when world markets look weak?

There is no doubt that gold is a political metal, and has been since ancient times. "This is true for the very simple reason that Gold in its historical role as a currency is fundamentally incompatible with the modern worldwide financial system" - See The Privateer. The Privateer also commented in a past editorial that "It should be pointed out that the Swiss people hardly ever agree to anything via a referendum."

When gold rises, the risk of inflation is seen, which would be a plus for interest rates and returns on bonds, and a negative for stocks. A rising gold price would suggest that there is another place for "flight to safety" funds to go to. A lower gold price also benefits those with short positions in gold, of which there are approximately 8000 Tonnes outstanding, according to noted analyst Frank Veneroso. With a "flight to marks and Sfr" also being reported today, could it be that the US and the Swiss are cooperating to limit the flow from dollars to Swiss ( gold-backed ) francs?

So why have the Swiss brought up the gold sale question TODAY? You are invited to make your own conclusions!

Crystal Ball
(Wed May 27 1998 15:58 - ID#287367)
@Mr. Mick
lower stock market? Not by the hair of my PPT. JTF- Yes, I saw it on the ticker in Times Square, interest rate raised to 150% in Russia.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:01 - ID#340459)
@Trinovant, I agree that It is the strategy that is being used.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:04 - ID#254269)
@ Midas_A; just read your 15.52 and the last sentecne really struck me. Turn it
around; could they ( Swiss ) be looking for a lower price to BUY ?

(Wed May 27 1998 16:05 - ID#229277)
farfel: no doubt 3% of WB is a lot of silver
If he bought it at around $4.85 and it's hovering around $5, might it not be time to buy some, assuming you don't mind hanging onto it for, say, 20 years?

(Wed May 27 1998 16:06 - ID#340302)
@GUNGADIN...sorry to strike a discordant note...
...although you are correct in noting that Buffett did NOT sell treasuries to buy silver ( at least in his initial reported purchases ) , according to Forbes, he likely unloaded a nice bundle of treasuries over the past few weeks.

We will see what future reports concerning his PM purchases reveal.



(Wed May 27 1998 16:08 - ID#340302)
@EJ...fundamentals of silver look far too good...
...a great payoff is just around the corner ( speaking metaphorically, of course ) .



(Wed May 27 1998 16:10 - ID#254269)
Really DUMM question re manipulation; just read the recent posts re (possible)
manipulation of the Dow. If this is going on, does this mean that a break in one of these world markets is "going to have to occurr outside the US, where the Feds cannot intervene ? Such as Japan, Russia, South Korea ,etc?

(Wed May 27 1998 16:16 - ID#57232)
The PPT is international -- we all stay up, or go down together!
Avalon: If the PPT thinks Japan or SEAsia is the place where the bad guys can be 'cut off at the pass', that's where they will go! I know the international PPT was working with Japan months ago.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:19 - ID#254269)
JTF; If that is the case re PPT, why couldn't this "game" go on
indefinitely ? What is stopping it ?

(Wed May 27 1998 16:22 - ID#426220)

What the Bank of Japan can do to save the Nikkei, the Fed can also do to keep Wall Street from tanking. From down nearly 150 DOW points to a close of down only 27 - all within about 90 minutes. HECK, those rascals at the FRB are indeed earning their wages.

Nonetheless, I cannot help wondering if the Fed is using taxpayers' hard earned money to bail out the speculators??????? If so, this bends me all outta shape.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:24 - ID#280215)
API Statistics
Energy Analysts and Traders:

Does anyone have a link or if you have access, can you post API statistics for Crude, Heating Oil, and Unleader Gas.

Thanks in advance!

(Wed May 27 1998 16:27 - ID#253418)
What does PPT stand for? I have seen it used and can't fiqure out its meaning.

What happened to Palladium today?? Did the Russians start delivering or is this a case of selling in fear of a Russian devaluation.

Nice little 3% bouce in silver today. Looks like the selling has run its course for a moment at least in the commodities. Now we get the three days of sideways action before the next fall.

Rmemeber 200 is a seven year low on the CRB - we are 8% away and falling.

Don't you love the Swis - coming out and announcing gold sales. They are just trying to keep money in the dollar and out of the Swiss Franc.

PPT anybody, what does it mean.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:27 - ID#340302)
@ALL...ultimately, gold's performance today...
...was solidly encouraging.

It is heartening to realize that gold investors no longer jump when a major CB shouts, "BOO!" Novices take note: there was never a moment of panic in the gold market today. For the most part, it was steady and dull. That cannot be said for today's equities markets.

The turnaround in the equities market at the end of the day was no surprise. However, a couple more such days and capitulation will result on the part of highly leveraged Dow/Nasdaq investors.

When bonds, equities, and the U.S. dollar trash simultaneously ( as they soon must ) , then gold/silver are left as the only sensible repositories of liquid wealth. The government will be forced to close down the PM markets in order to preclude monies from flowing in there when the moment of true panic arrives. Although the Clinton regime is obviously anti-PM, I do not believe they will ever take such Draconian measures. Otherwise, they would have hell to pay with a notably ideological, fervent segment of the population.



(Wed May 27 1998 16:29 - ID#340302)
PPT...Plunge Protection Team


(Wed May 27 1998 16:33 - ID#342376)
Another question...
If part of the PPT's plan is to maintain a low POG, then why don't supporters of Gold such as Rothschild's, BIS, etc. start a counteroffensive strategy? You would think they would be past the point of being very upset by now as Gold has been manipulated for so long.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:34 - ID#57232)
I don't know -- until the money supply runs out?
Avalon: I know such things happened nearly 90 hundred years ago, but at that time the PPT was probably US only. I think several things will eventually happen: 1 ) The market gyrations will become too complex for the juggling act, 2 ) One or both of the AG and RR team will retire or resign, and this marvelously efficient machine will unravel, or 3 ) The money supply will dry up.

I think the best analogy is thinking about balancing an egg on a stick, or the juggler spinning the plate on a stick. It is possible to maintain an unstable system for a time, but the feedback control system must have infinite indurance, and be dynamically stable. If the feedback of the markets is altered, and the PPT does not know it, they may eventually push when they need to pull, or pull when they need to push. This fiat currency business also requires faith in the 'paper' to stand up, and the market business needs faith in the markets to stand up on top of that. Markets will alway require faith, but why compound the potential problem by requiring faith in the 'fiat' currency as well, and cause further instability?

Just a matter of time -- years -- perhaps -- before we repeat the deflationary events leading up to Sept 1929, where the US markets were the only ones standing for some time. And then they fell, too.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:35 - ID#253418)
Plunge Protection Team not at work in Palladium
Thanks Farfel. Now, what the haps with PD today.

Gosh CNBC announcers having trouble keeping up with all the crashing markets: Asian, Russian, South Americann, next or already here.

Farfel, think you're right - when confidence is not so much broken but begins to wane in the dollar and the Dow then the metals will be turned to - its probably a thing "at the margin". imjg

(Wed May 27 1998 16:38 - ID#57232)
Error: Should have said 'PPT nearly 90 years ago', not 90 hundred.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:38 - ID#57232)
Error: Should have said 'PPT nearly 90 years ago', not 90 hundred.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:43 - ID#304282)
Border warfare between pakistan and india

(Wed May 27 1998 16:48 - ID#344286)
Northernminer sez
Just in case your interested.

Stillwater surges ahead after completing expansion

By Ted Worthington

Nye, Mont. -- Stillwater Mining is hitting full stride at North America's only primary
platinum-palladium producer, the company's namesake mine.

And with the size of its hedge position diminishing, the company is poised to benefit from the
skyrocketing prices of the platinum-group metals ( PGMs ) .

The Stillwater operation, situated here at the foot of the scenic Beartooth Mountains, has reached its
production capacity of 2,000 tons of ore per day.

The company achieved this by completing a 1,950-ft. shaft in 1997, enabling it to increase tonnage
mined by 37% and tons milled by 29% over 1996.

The company is faced with the task of mining a sulphide zone ( known as the J-M reef ) within the
Stillwater Complex, a large layered mafic intrusion.

The J-M reef averages about 8.5 ft. in thickness and has a strike length of 28 miles.

The reef can balloon out to thicknesses of up to 75 ft., into what Stillwater's geologists call
"ballrooms," and can also narrow to as little as 1 ft. On a recent visit to the mine, The Northern
Miner was told that changes in how the reef is mined can make a big difference in recovery,
productivity and, ultimately, profitability.

"We've come full circle with regards to mining methods," said Ennis Geraghty, chief geologist at
Stillwater. "We've tried bulk mining techniques with higher dilution, but in the last few years we've
come around to mining more selectively."

Currently, the company employs four mining methods in order to cover the various ground
conditions and mining widths encountered along the reef.

Nearly half the operation uses mechanized ramp cut-and-fill methods and another 15% uses
mechanized captive cut-and-fill methods. The increase in the use of mechanical methods played a
big part in the expansion of the operation in 1997, and also helped to keep costs down.

Stillwater also uses sub-level mining in the west side of the deposit, where the reef is very continuous
and dips 45. The technique is practical here because the ground conditions on the west side are
much better than elsewhere. "As a rule of thumb, the steeper the dip of the reef, the poorer the
ground conditions," Geraghty said. Nearly 20% of the production at the mine comes from this
sub-level extraction.

The fourth mining method used involves slusher cut-and-fill stopes.

Dilution is the most important issue facing the miners at Stillwater.

"Internal structure [within the layered mafic intrusion] and grade control are crucial," said geologist
Mike Koski.

In the company's favor, mine geologists are able to visually estimate the grade of the rock based on
the sulphide content. After each blast, Koski, like each of the company's 13 grade-control
geologists, visits the working face, marks the ore zones with a can of spray paint and takes a sample
for assay. The visual data is then cross-checked with assay data to minimize dilution. This system
works well, despite there being as many as 35 active working faces in the mine at any time.
Recorded dilution through 1997 was 10% and the waste-to-ore ratio was 0.7 to 1.

Last year, Stillwater produced 84,000 oz. platinum and 271,000 oz.

palladium. Results from the first quarter of 1998 show a 26% increase in production as a result of
the expansion to 2,000 tons per day. Cash production costs during the quarter fell 17% to US$153
per oz. combined platinum and palladium.

The PGMs at Stillwater are locked up with sulphide species -- pentlandite, pyrrhotite and
chalcopyrite -- found in the interstices of the cumulate layers that make up the J-M reef.
PGM-bearing minerals include the sulphides braggite and cooperite, isoferroplatinum ( as metal ) and
moncheite ( a telluride ) . Most of the palladium comes from a solid-solution in pentlandite.
Byproducts include copper, nickel, rhodium, gold, silver and cobalt, though they only account for
5% of the overall revenue.

The Stillwater mine is the product of over 60 years of exploration perseverance that followed the
discovery of the Stillwater Complex and the recognition of its similarity to the PGM-rich Bushveld
Complex in South Africa. During the Second World War, the U.S. government commissioned a
chromium mine here. In the 1960s and 1970s, mining companies evaluated the copper and nickel
potential of the Stillwater Complex. At the same time, Johns Manville began looking for platinum
group metals.

The J-M reef ( named for Johns Manville ) was discovered in 1974, though it took a number of years
to delineate an orebody. The decision to move to production was made in August 1986.

Stillwater became a public company in December 1994; Manville sold its interest the following year.

At year-end 1997, reserves at Stillwater stood at 23.4 million tons grading 0.79 oz. combined
platinum and palladium per ton.

Stillwater plans to continue lowering costs where possible and is looking to implement another
expansion program that would triple annual production to 1.3 million oz. combined platinum and
palladium by 2003. The board recently approved an increase in capital spending for 1998 to US$55
million from US$22 million, which could allow the company to reach 1.3 million oz. "in a shorter
time frame than we had originally planned," said Stillwater Chairman William Nettles.

The funds will be used for several development projects, including a paste backfill project that could
boost the volume of mill feed by 5%, and a copper-nickel processing circuit.

Stillwater also plans to increase the number of active working faces to more than 40 and to add new
miners. However, hiring new people hasn't been easy, as "there's still a shortage of qualified miners,"
said Gill Clausen, vice president of operations. The company trains four miners per month in its
teaching stopes, and recruits at other operations around the country, Clausen said. Stillwater also
received a labor certification allowing it to employ foreign miners, particularly from Canada.

The company is awaiting approval of an Environmental Impact Statement ( EIS ) covering a new
tailings facility. In the EIS document, Stillwater has requested the removal of tonnage restrictions.
The company expects to receive a record of decision by year-end.

In another important step toward reaching its production target, the company has begun
development of a second mine along the J-M reef at East Boulder, 13 miles distant. After having
mothballed the plan in the third quarter of 1996, the company restarted the fully permitted project in
November 1997.

Currently, Stillwater is 150 ft. in from the portal at East Boulder and is preparing for the arrival of a
tunnel-boring machine in late May. The 430-ft.-long machine will dig a tunnel 18,500 ft. into the
mountain to the J-M reef, advancing at a rate of 125 ft. per day. The resulting adit is expected to be
completed within a year.

Once the tunnel is complete, the company will commission a final feasibility study before making a
production decision. The East Boulder mine would have a capacity of over 2,000 tons per day.

The Stillwater plant uses a flotation circuit much like copper and nickel operations. Through a
primary and secondary grinding unit, the flotation process upgrades the platinum-palladium grades to
65 oz. per ton from the head grade of 0.75 oz. The material is shipped 35 miles to Columbus for
smelting and refining.

To process ore from the East Boulder mine, the company is considering constructing a second
processing plant at East Boulder, eliminating the need to transport concentrates nearly 100 miles by
road back to the Stillwater mine and then on to the smelter in Columbus, Mont.

"We're confident that we'll soon be able to order materials for a second processing plant," said John
Andrews, Stillwater's president.

At the smelter complex, copper, nickel and iron are removed at the base metals refinery, such that
the final product, which is shipped to Belgium for refining, is 65% platinum-palladium. The copper
and nickel, in solution, are currently shipped to Canada for processing. However, the company
intends to construct electrowinning cells at Columbus this year to process the solution. Currently, the
company receives payment for 60% of the nickel and nothing for the copper. With the new facility,
Stillwater should realized an additional US$3 per oz. from byproduct credits.

This year is a transitional one for Stillwater in terms of hedging. The company is emerging from a
poorly chosen hedging strategy that has kept it from realizing higher metal prices while platinum and
particularly palladium prices soar. In 1997, the company realized US$144 per oz. palladium and
US$388 per oz. platinum, whereas the average market prices for these metals were US$178 and
US$395 per oz.

Stillwater is expected to clear from under these hedge contracts by the end of the year. Currently,
the company holds a position totaling 175,000 oz.

palladium at an average price of US$138 per oz. and 4,255 oz. platinum at an average price of
US$369 per oz. through the end of the year. This position, declining each quarter, has 73% of
second-quarter palladium production covered by the hedge position. That figure drops to 63% in
the third quarter and 38% in the fourth quarter, after which the company has no further positions.

Stillwater anticipates producing 370,000 oz. palladium and 108,000 oz.

platinum during 1998. Those ounces not covered by the hedge will be sold at spot prices.

"We do not intend to put ourselves in a position again where we will not realize the benefit of rising
metal prices," stated Nettles in the 1997 annual report.

Last year was dominated by oversupply of both platinum and palladium. South Africa accounted for
70% of the year's 5 million oz. of global production, while Russia was the controlling factor in the
7-million-oz. palladium market. Most of the palladium came from stockpiles at the Noril'sk nickel
operation, which are expected to run out in the next few years.

So far this year, Russia has delayed delivery of palladium and platinum, sending the price of both
metals into the stratosphere. When shipments will resume remains unknown. Stillwater expects
increased demand for both metals this year from the electronics sector, where palladium is
increasingly used in semiconductors, and the automobile industry, where the metals are used in
catalytic converters.

Environmentally speaking, Stillwater is different from other hardrock mines in North America in that
the platinum and palladium mineralization is not the result of hydrothermal alteration that also
concentrates elements dangerous to the environment, such as arsenic, mercury or cadmium.
Moreover, the company doesn't use cyanide, nor is acid mine drainage a problem.

As a zero-discharge facility, Stillwater's only environmental problem is nitrates derived from blasting
materials. Excess nitrates can upset the chemical balance in the Stillwater River, a blue-ribbon trout
stream running close to the mine. To ward off this potential problem, the company routes runoff to
nitrate consuming plants and employs anaerobic biodenitrification technology during the winter

(Wed May 27 1998 16:48 - ID#304282)
There are several reasons why the Rothschilds might want a low gold price. They would sacrifice lower gold prices now for the opportunity to increase their world presence in the long run. They also might desire the creation of a one world currency and they know that requires a low gold price. Whatever the reason, I am sure it is in their best interest. If it wasn't, they would not allow the price of gold to be so low.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:50 - ID#344286)
Sorry Bart,

(Wed May 27 1998 16:50 - ID#342315)
Henry D re SNB
Yeah man. That worked. Sorry to be so late, but big storm rolled in. I can play with this a while.

(Wed May 27 1998 16:59 - ID#252127)
The Swiss are smarter than the PPT

The Swiss are jawboning gold down because presently their gold reserves and monetary haven status means a strong SF; which they presently do not want for a number of reasons, the most important being a huge inflow of foreign fiat money for SF's.

BOTTOM LINE, don't expect the Swiss citizen to approve government gold sales.

They may be accumulating hallmarked gold at these low prices for sale of this non-official gold later. Don't buy the argument that trinkets from Asia are flowing into Switzerland for refining.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:00 - ID#340302)
@JUNIOR...I must acknowledge one significant error...
...or lack of clarification during RJ's relentless interrogation.

As I have often underlined, my major strength ( and weakness ) in analyzing financial markets stems from a fairly keen knowledge of Economics.

In Economics, there is no distinction made between wheat, pork bellies, oranges, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, etc. They are all considered under the rubric "COMMODITIES" when discussing concepts such as the effects of deflation, inflation, and/or stagflation.

So, please understand that, when I refer to Plat and Palladium as mere commodities, I am speaking solely in Economic terms.

Junior, you are correct to point out that Plat and Palladium have evolved into both strategic and political metals today and are not mere commodities. I fully understand your sensitivity about that issue and naturally I apologize for upsetting you.

Analogously, gold is a political metal often derided as a mere commodity.
However, owing to its historical, integral role as a financial reserve,
it too is much more than a mere commodity.



(Wed May 27 1998 17:01 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.46 The 50 day moving average is 29.76

(Wed May 27 1998 17:02 - ID#210235)
@some details on India/Pakistan trouble
in Kashmir -

(Wed May 27 1998 17:09 - ID#194311)
downward spiral of the vortex.....RECESSION
listen to the circular economic jargon in this.

SINGAPORE, May 27 ( AFP ) - Asian currencies weakened
across-the-board on Wednesday amid fears the region will plunge into
a recession following financial turmoil.
"There is a fear of the need for a currency alignment again for
the regionals because of underestimation of the economic problem
caused by the currency crisis," said Sani Hamid, analyst with
Standa Most Asian currencies have depreciated rapidly against the US
dollar since mid-1997 when foreign exchange turmoil broke out in the
The recession fears drove currencies down and also ravaged stock
markers across the region.
Sani said that fresh macro-economic numbers revealed by various
authorities on Tuesday and Wednesday suggested the situation in the
region "is worse than initially expected," citing Malaysia, Thailand
and Hong Kong as examples.
Hong Kong's economic growth is expected to fall substantially,
possibly to recession levels in the first quarter for the first time
in 13 years, officials warned on Wednesday.
rd and Poor's MMS here.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:10 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .255 The 50 day moving average is .273. My database contains 19 occasions when the XAU closed in the 74.XX range. This closing ranks 17th in relation to the gold price. Ranking 1 was reached on 12/26/86 with a gold price of $390.20, an XAU of 74.17 and a XAU/AU ratio of .190

(Wed May 27 1998 17:10 - ID#253418)
Cueball / Re Worthington article
Thanks for posting the excellent article on SWC. I think this is the definitive work on this company - current and accurate.

SWC has had its problems as a stock price recently falling from the upper 27 area through support at 24 today to the mid 23s on a 35 dollar crash in Palladium on no news that I can find. That's what bad.

I calculate $2 of earning for this company ( SWC ) in '99 based on $280 Palladium and $380 Platinum, about where we are today - hit that with a 25 PE and you have a $50 security. ( A double in the stock price on same price metals- where else do you find that prospect in the precious metal stocks ) A 15% higher price for the metals throws another dollar on earnings giving prospects for a TRIPLE from todays close by late '99. With expanding production, contracting cost basis and prospectively prices for PD above $250 and PT above $375 this stock in one of the better precious metal buys I have found.

Buys in the 19 - 22 area will be steals....IMHO ( no results quaranteed though I will risk 2 credability points on this recommendation plus a few of my own bucks. )

(Wed May 27 1998 17:11 - ID#20137)
Aquick snapshot of silver past.
silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn

0 0 36,995,812
-404,744 0 53,205,711
-404,774 0 90,201,523

silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn

-5,088 597,965 33,901,609
5,088 -597,965 55,355,926
0 0 89,257,535

March 30 1988

( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

-592,672 0 38,353,915
188,987 0 48,472,816
-403,685 0 86,826,731

my notes for February 17 1998

registered 31,681,094
Elligible 60,258,280
Total 91,939,374

(Wed May 27 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.64

(Wed May 27 1998 17:17 - ID#194311)
Looks like BIS needs to stock up...things must be real bad...
Swiss government plans end to currency-gold link, opens way for gold sales
BERN, May 27 ( AFP ) - The Swiss government on Wednesday approved
a bill calling for the removal of the link between the Swiss franc
and gold, which could pave the way for substantial central bank gold
sale from 2000.
Switzerland, the only industrialized country to back its
currency with gold reserves, has about 2,600 tonnes of gold
The finance ministry in a statement called the link which is
written into the constitution "obsolete," saying it limits the
possibility of disposing of the gold and should be disbanded.
"According to the SNB ( Swiss National Bank ) ...only half of the
current gold reserves are needed to carry out monetary policy," the
statement said, saying some 1,300 tonnes could be used for "public
Sales "depend on the market situation in year 2000 or 2001. It's
not imminent. We're under no pressure to sell it," Gygi told AFP.
The constitutional change though "does not mean that the central
bank would load off 1,300 tonnes of gold onto the market. It opens
the way, which is so far non-existent."
A director of the bank, Jean-Pierre Roth, said then that "we are
convinced that gold will continue to play an important role as an
instrument of exchange reserves, particularly in the event of

(Wed May 27 1998 17:17 - ID#347235)
The Rothschilds
They are simply following good business practice, allowing the POG to go low, so that they can buy more of it and wait for the price to rise. I in my own small way am doing the same, buying now with the intenet of holding for at least 10 years, I also bought gold on the lows for many years in Europe and other places I have been.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:18 - ID#347235)
Sorry about the extra e in intent, I really should proofread but I am an old man so there.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:19 - ID#194311)
Notice a pattern here...
Soros sniffs around and wham a few months later the country gets whacked big on a currency crisis...just who does this work for?

MOSCOW, May 27 ( AFP ) - Russia's financial system was stretched
to breaking point Wednesday, as panic-stricken stock and bond
markets continued to plunge, forcing the central bank to triple
interest rates to stave off an Asian-style currency collapse.
The bank hiked its refinancing rate to 150 percent, a 27-month
high ( eds: correct ) , to defend the ruble from the spate of capital
flooding out of drained markets on a day stocks shed 10.5 percent,
and bond yields spiralled to a budget-busting 80 percent.
President Boris Yeltsin summoned his economic team for a crisis
meeting Thursday morning, while top government officials ruled out a
devaluation of the ruble, a move which would risk undermining all
the economic achievements of post-Soviet Russia.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
Mexican peso closes at record low

(Wed May 27 1998 17:33 - ID#254269)
JTF; thanks for your 16.34, makes sense to me, I agree things seem to be
getting rather crazy; maybe Greenspan's retirement plans are the key
to the whole situation ? Who knows ?

(Wed May 27 1998 17:34 - ID#287193)
(gagnrad)....the answer..
Re: Wed May 27 1998 00:37

Thank you gagnrad, I hit the bed the same time.
thinking about your experience:
You are a classic person! Knowing about man and genetic shifts--gems-metals
Sculpting--modeling-casting aso. This of course IMHO.
Somebody else mentioned this thing about your metamorphosis--I rather -like both of you.
Could you help me to get in here?
( )
with a 'vest' like this developed for "INVEST" I would not mind riding on a donkey.


(Wed May 27 1998 17:39 - ID#153102)
@vronsky @taxpayer's hard earned money
Did you think my posts on Ownership & Rude Awakening & the one to sharefin lat night were theoretical ? It's not their, the "taxpayer's" money. They just have the USE of it. The FRN has this advantage over gold money: it's easier to USE because of force of law and the facilities of The Bank being fully behind it. Gold money has this advantage over the FRN: you OWN it.

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 17:49 - ID#212323)
Mozel, JTF, or others (I specified YOU two because you usually are good to muse upon ideas)
Take a look at my 14:57--in particular the last part. In summary I offered an idea that although it may work for an extended period of time upon ill-informed people, the IMF is unwittingly paving the way for destruction of fiat currencies. Governments will fail at imposing their fiat-based oppression upon other governments. At some point the oppressed will say "Enough is ENOUGH!" because they all know the nature of paper.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 27 1998 17:59 - ID#384350)
Manipulators try to push up the Dow, but A/D was heavily bearish
NYSE Adv/Dec 2.3:1 in favor of declines. Nasdaq 2.8:1. And AMEX 3:1 in favor of declines.

NYSE volume: Up-226 million Down-416 million Unchanged-45 million

The illusion is for the simpleton, just like old rumors on the Swiss Front.

Buy Physical and get the hell out of Dodge.

Go Gold.

(Wed May 27 1998 17:59 - ID#255217)
Whither gold?
GIVEN all that has occurred in recent weeks/months that many ( including myself ) would have thought would cause gold to rise significantly, if not spectacularly, and GIVEN the FACT that gold has shown NO inclination to do so, I find myself thinking the unthinkable: Gold MIGHT be getting ready to go MUCH lower! I have seen some ( not many ) references to $250. My reaction has been, until now, NO, I don't think so. NOW, I'm not so sure. And I don't like the feeling I'm gertting.

WHATEVER has been the reason for gold's lack of performance the past six months, is still operative, as far as I can see and price levels of $250, even $225 don't seem as farfetched as they once did. The ONE sterling reason I see that might preclude such an occurrance is that we SEEM to be slouching toward an area in which the DOW, the dollar, and many paper instruments are BEGINNING to be suspect by the man in the street.
The DOW, especially, now no longer seems to be as invincible as it once was in the minds of some, perhaps many. This may only be a subtlety conjured out of my own mind, but it is there. Perhaps it is only wishful thinking.

I wouldn't LIKE to see gold at $250, much less at $225. But UNLESS something changes in the next six months, gold's continued lackluster dalliance will only serve to drive more from its embrace in apathetic disillousionment I sincerely hope I am wrong. It's also an old truism that the bottom of a bear market is most often reached when pessimism is at its greatest and prospects seem bleakest. We may have to endure a little longer. But as scripture states, "This, too, shall pass". All IMHO. This IS a forum of opinions, is it not?

(Wed May 27 1998 18:02 - ID#153102)
Yes, my conclusions were in some posts published around the time of one I titled "Consequences of Retreat". It's the reason the USG has lost the War on Gold.

Strad Master
(Wed May 27 1998 18:06 - ID#250297)
PPT Questions
VRONSKY ed al: If the PPT is out there buying up stocks to prop up the DOW, ( as I suspect they are ) at these inflated prices how do they unwind their holdings? Wouldn't dumping them again later cause the markets to go back the other way? If they sell those equities for a profit, doesn't that mean that the guy buying them further up the chain is contributing to the Federal coffers? If so, how come there isn't some special tax-writeoff category for people who buy government-owned stocks? Isn't that like making a contribution to charity - to help pay off the National Debt? ( Just kidding on that last one, but there is a kernal of truth in it, no? )

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 18:08 - ID#212323)
I was until very recently out of town on business and have no ability to digest the tomes of Kitco productivity during my absence. Approx what day and time was the post you refer to? I scanned back and caught your potato chip parable...very nice. Also liked your "Got Freedom?" sign-off that you used once. I mentioned that yesterday maybe around noon, but didn't know if you caught my post to you.

Got Freedom? : )
got gold?

Bully Beef
(Wed May 27 1998 18:11 - ID#259282)
Auric gets two points for predicting gold up 2 dollars(US) over it's London low of
well check the chart. Like everyone else I think gold did well considering the Swiss announcement. I said a long time ago on this forum that until the Swiss have paid off the Jewish peoples for the gold they owe they will keep the price down. Switzerland pay up for your clandestine dealings and stop manipulation. In school I learned Switzerland was neutral and with education I learned they bought and paid for peace with the Nazi Germans.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:20 - ID#287193)
Hallo -Silverbaron......
re: your question about the--"....where's our golden baby "

I e-mailed your question to the gentleman for an answer- and just received the mail-- ( by the way he came to us here for a visit! ) But:

"There are lots of charts I'd like to add, but right now, time prevents

me from doing to much more."

We all have the same problem. Time--time --time for the job, friends, family on..the posting here in Kitcoland.

Have you found a site with a guaranty about this here big BOOM in silver?

and gold?

Tomorrow I will buy 'ONE' back, with both silver and gold in stock and in the ground.


(Wed May 27 1998 18:23 - ID#153102)
Glad you liked my tale of chip investment.
The post concluding Got Freedom ? had a darned serious message for those who comprehend these times.
The "Consequences of Retreat" and like posting on the War on Gold was done around the time of ANOTHER's last posts here.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 27 1998 18:29 - ID#384350)
Prometheus, HRC
When you used HRC, I at first thought you meant Her Royal C*nt. If the shoe fits......

(Wed May 27 1998 18:33 - ID#254269)
Pentagon spokesman subpoenaed by Starr;

(Wed May 27 1998 18:45 - ID#432148)
End of golds decline?
Don't miss Steven Kaplan's Comments of the Day this date. He is predicting the end of golds decline tomorrow. One man's opinion of course, but he often makes sense IMHO.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:48 - ID#43460)
servehard, I can't get into the URL you posted
But about the other, that just means I know less about investing. I was serious some time in the past that I'm my own best contrary indicator. But it was gratifying to see that the market fell again the day after I sold some more of my mutual funds.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:49 - ID#36977)
Kitco Search URL
Can anyone post this, Please? I can't find a LGB post regarding gyro guidance systems and Chineese launch vehicles from the past 2 weeks.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:50 - ID#43450)
Value Line index still falling like a rock
Despite today's recovery in the big averages, the Value Line index fell about a percent today. The index contains some 2000 stocks, equally weighted, and therefore coorelates very well with the advance-decline line. Those of you with stock mutual funds will probably notice signficant loss when you check out the unit value for today's close.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:51 - ID#34857)
Bailed out of MINE this morning at .34 ... couldn't live with all the warnings and negative opinions - made a few bucks though.

Then ( Forgive Me Father ) - I bought more physical! Yea, that's the ticket! ... made F* proud ( forgive me Midas ) .

I care, but I bought more anyway. Hmm, wait a minute here ...ICBIBMA?



(Wed May 27 1998 18:52 - ID#39828)
Aussie exports sent home. Aussie dollar on life support.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:53 - ID#153102)
@Argent @Parole Knowledge
Argent, the typical American citizen has no idea gold coin is money. The USG has no intention of allowing that to change. The propaganda machine will run full time. The President will talk lies with a sharing caring tone and demeanor about the safety of "your money" meaning the greenbacks which the government actually owns and the citizen is only allowed to USE within the prescribed rules and regulations. The parole knowledge transmitted in cultures from father to son has been disrupted for too many generations. It only exists in a minority now who are aliens in the land of their forefathers. I am personally making no assumptions that it can ever be restored in my lifetime. I foresee FEMA moving people to Electronics Benefit Transfer during Y2K disruption and allocating resources via EBT. Dependance will be rewarded; Independance will be obstructed or even forbidden. One card will thereafter access all funds of whatever source and description. They have already been working on this for some time. I think a deal was made so that both Master Card and Visa could participate in the one card scheme. On the first go around one of them was left out and complained. People who think they own greenbacks and that greenbacks are money will be none the wiser in New America.

The "genuine public-private partnership" which Clinton has tasked FEMA to be prepared to implement and which he spoke to the Naval cadets about will involve corporate stock somehow and social security and medical care. The USG system will converge with the Red Chinese system where Red Chips are a feature.

Only a mere handful of the American people will perceive the direction of things. The vast majority will be in shock. The USG will create and magnify the sense of chaos and disorder. It will be a replay of FDR's Democratic Socialist Revolution carrying it further toward full press socialism. Clinton has all the legal authority he needs to lock up any opposition as "terrorists" or "conspirators". If you ever hear about these arrests, it will be years and years later. There will be a few well publicized show trials to intimidate the populace. The major media will play the same role it does today. FEMA will see to it the WSJ does not get resources to publish unless it plays ball. Like the last Emergency, this New Emergency will never end. It will be a permanent feature of New America.

A goldbug does not belong in New America. That's my assessment.

(Wed May 27 1998 18:54 - ID#288295)
Servhard @ Silver sites
Silver Institute ... ( silver stock specialty broker ) ... http://www.pennaluna.comCPM Group ( a subscription site ) ... http://www.cpmgroup.comSome good articles on silver stocks by CC @ Vronsky's site - The Goldbug in gold digest. Sorry, no guarantees ( I only wish there were ) .

(Wed May 27 1998 18:55 - ID#288295)

Sorry - my ISP blended the links in last post ( as usual ) ...If you can't decipher them, contact me at

Aragorn III
(Wed May 27 1998 19:14 - ID#212323)
Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze Mozel... your last message...
That kind of stuff wrecks my appetite! I would appreciate it if you would preface such clinical ( and probable ) projections with the statement "Unless the Ammerican sheeple wake up..." ...etc. Then there remains hope that this does not have to come to pass. Damn it, just look around at the slack-jawed WILL come to pass. DAMN IT!

At least we have the likes of Tolerant1 putting his shoulder to the wheel. Perhaps all is not lost.

got gold? Aw, what's the use...

Oh yeah, now I remember--I LIKE the stuff. It is the physical aspect of the legacy that was my life.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:15 - ID#410114)
Gold vs stocks
The argument that there is more gold above ground now is also true about stocks and bonds.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:23 - ID#288369)
@sam, the mad dog bar keep @ K B &G.........
Just turned me on to blues format and other musac 'round de clock real audio.......nice tip, sam....I'll have me another Cuba Libre! make dat a double, boss.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:25 - ID#288369)

(Wed May 27 1998 19:26 - ID#43460)
Mozel, if you really wanted to do something about it
you'd send Oprah, Rikki Lake, Rosie O'whatsername, Vanna White, and a half dozen assorted soap opera divas each a matched set of gold coin ear pendants and neck chains, with a contract to pay them big bucks to start wearing them every show. The lack of knowledge/interest would solve itself. IMHO

(Wed May 27 1998 19:28 - ID#153102)
Well, it just finally got through to me that all those people who think you are crazy for saying gold coin is money are going to think the government has just locked up a crazy when they lock you up. And likewise for all those people who think the ideals of the Founders are immature ideals unfit for the modern world.

I'm still saying "The Reds are coming; the Reds are coming." I just don't think anybody will show up at Concord Bridge to stop them. It only takes a couple of generations to reduce the transmission of parole cultural knowledge to a trickle like it is today. And when the common law was lost, it was all over. Because the average person will just never figure out what happened. Especially not after the internet is sanitized in New America.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:33 - ID#153102)
There is no connection I see between gold jewelry and freedom.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:37 - ID#252150)
I wonder what % of the N American population has any idea of the precarious
position that their mutual/retirement funds are in. They sit in front of their TVs in a vegetative state & the vast majority never even consider putting even 5% of their assets in AU for insurance. They are preocuppied with trying to decide which make of 4x4 to trade in for & whether they should go to the Florida or California Disneyland or maybe Vegas again.
The day of reckoning nears when they will be rudely jolted into an unpleasant reality that they could'nt even imagine.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:40 - ID#43460)
Never mind.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:47 - ID#287193)
( gagnrad...just double check--)
Thanks gagnrad, 'the science daily with the 'vest'.you saw that? --

this www. Below must be a restricted site. The net sites are not all closed..

I was thinking you might know about this one..the lower one on the same net.

psych.crime/ About suicidal psychiatrists

Studies have found that psychiatrists have the highest suicide rate

among physicians. And a 1994 survey of psychologists found almost

two-thirds had battled clinical depression- 96% 11124 bytes, 1997/12/06

( after I read some of your post's from the weekend I became enticed! )


(Wed May 27 1998 19:48 - ID#288295)
Or, EVEN BETTER - write GOLD in as the savior of mankind in the Y2K movie. Is tommorow the bottom? IDCIBM.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:54 - ID#288295)
Not to offend any person's religious sensibilities - my last post was not meant in a theological way, of course.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed May 27 1998 19:55 - ID#295111)
Barrick Short Position
Well, last time I checked, ABX shares were shorted at 14 million shares out of 373 million outstanding. That's 3.75%. I don't post often, but like I've been saying in the past, I believe a bull market in gold will start at about the time these shorted shares are covered. I had predicted $450 gold sometime this year. Looks like it won't happen soon, but the year ain't over yet. The only good thing about this gold market is that it's a great time to buy.

(Wed May 27 1998 19:58 - ID#153102)
When you are the accused and the prosecution places your image at the crime scene as recorded by the Vest and plays it for the jury, will you be able to afford your own production to mount a digital defense ?

(Wed May 27 1998 20:02 - ID#413109)
My objective has been met
Believe they look ready to turn. The levels I thought the gold would
go to have been reached and breached, they now look like their going
to turn. As I said yesterday, and it looks like silver did, today
maybe gold will get the message.

(Wed May 27 1998 20:08 - ID#288295)
INPATHIQUE long-term forecast update

(Wed May 27 1998 20:09 - ID#288295)
INPATHIQUE closeup latest update

(Wed May 27 1998 20:12 - ID#286279)
Strad Master
Good to see you. How is your most precious little cutie?

(Wed May 27 1998 20:23 - ID#413109)
You don't need to be a technician
in order to see why Randgold looks interesting at these prices.

Big Time Tom
(Wed May 27 1998 20:32 - ID#212320)
RJ's Cruise

RJ, you bastard, you! It so happens that my wife and I will be on the Elation, cruising down the Mexican Pacific Coast, between the 14th and the 21st of June. Do these happen to be the dates of your scheduled cruise as well? If so, I would love to meet you, perhaps even down a good dark porter with you. ( But don't worry, I wouldn't try to monopolize your time ) . Well, I would love to meet you, provided that you have cultivated a big enough heart to justify my associating myself with you! Hee. Hee.


(Wed May 27 1998 20:36 - ID#287186)
Argent - it seems Mozel agrees with you - in a convoluted way.
Pessimism has not yet hit bottom. Most sheople around here have yet to understand they are being led to slaughter. The stock pep club continues to cry buy! Bearers of Y2K news are viewed as loonies at best by average folk and as pariahs by Chambers of Commerce, investment purveyors and politicos at any level.
I perceive that Gold will continue to get hammered in a concerted effort to drive it out of money altogether. The posts below that question whether there really is any Swiss Gold may apply to Fort Knox and most every other CB. Gold may very well sink to half of what it is today.
I shall sit this out - and buy beans, toilet paper and other supplies.
My return on them may be better than Gold.
A can of beans that goes for 50 cents now may be worth $3 after Y2K. Of course this may be on the black market because President Klinton will declare all prices frozen.
Toilet paper - what with all the beans being consumed may go for $5 per roll! Try to beat those returns!
I shall go out to lunch - spaghetti - beans only for last resort!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed May 27 1998 20:36 - ID#347267)
Someone asked about Steve Kaplan's URL last night I believe, ( I was trying to hurriedly get cought up with the thread, and didn't have time to reply ) . Just checked and thought y'all would be interested in his comments from TODAY's action:

"COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities ended moderately lower on Wednesday, while precious metals closed mostly modestly lower after a sharply lower start. Gold dropped $1.90 after being down five dollars in early morning trading. Silver rose 6.3 cents, platinum slumped $5.60, and palladium plunged $19.55. The Swiss government reiterated old plans to delink the Swiss franc from the gold standard, subject to a future public referendum, though the selloff in gold was primarily due to speculators ( who jumped on the bandwagon when gold rose above $300 earlier in 1998 ) finally throwing in the towel, as evidenced by a typical intraday washout chart pattern. Thursday should mark the end of gold's decline. The CRB index of commodities hit its lowest level since September 17, 1993. The JOC index hit a multi-year bottom on Tuesday, May 19 before recently recovering modestly. The XAU, an index of mostly large-capitalization North American gold mining shares, hit its lowest intraday level since March 23. As the small number of remaining speculator long positions in the yellow metal were mostly cleared out by this week's drop, there will be very few remaining sell stops to be triggered on the way down.

The COMEX has announced an 18% cut in the margin requirements for silver futures.

The South African gold mining industry, struggling against a decline in the gold price, has reduced its labor force by 20% over the past 18 months. With so many trained workers available, the wage rate of South African gold miners is likely to remain low at least until gold prices rebound significantly." END QUOTE

The URL is:

Silverbaron, glad you are commenting on the Gold Forecaster. Good Site which all should pay attention to! My take is we may have some more on the down side to get the long term chart to oversold for a period of time, although the short and intermediate term charts look almost ready to rock and roll!! Steven J Kaplan's comments are very pertinent.

Regards, Mtn Bear

(Wed May 27 1998 20:36 - ID#266105)

Hey Silverbaron, wat'cha think of Apex silver at these

(Wed May 27 1998 20:39 - ID#217268)
Cherokee / Mozel
Cherokee, where are you ? Long time no hear.

Is there a search routing for Kitco ? Say a reader is interested in accessing the last 10 posts from ________ ?

Mozel, you were in rare form today. Congrats on a job well done. Some people even think there is actual money in the banks.

(Wed May 27 1998 20:42 - ID#27341)
Prometheus-your 14.55-a third wave down ahead?
Could you please shed some light on the story, they have taken it off the site,

(Wed May 27 1998 20:42 - ID#413109)
1st swings first
and the 2nd looks like it too has done it's thing. Ah the rythm and the
variations of the theme-----

(Wed May 27 1998 20:43 - ID#287193)
(yes Silverbaron....crashed..
this crash monitor I use is worth it's weight in silver!

Thank you..I finally have all three.

The one with the links is 'SUPER'!

I do use several good mining sites. The program I mentioned, delivers every trading day all the news on all the Can. stocks including the URL's of companies that have www. sites.

You know why I did not E-mail!

I am north of the chart----there.


(Wed May 27 1998 20:44 - ID#75206)
PREACHER: What say ye on where we are and how much technical
damage has been done? Any recovery for gold on the horizon?

(Wed May 27 1998 20:46 - ID#45173)
Squirrel: Toilet Paper Futures
How many oz of gold to buy a roll of TP in March 2000? 1 oz. per roll? What's all this talk here about worthless paper, anyway?

Seriously, if you believe we'll all be shivering in the dark, digging for roots and fighting off roaming hoards of looters come January 2000, then this site is irrelevant. The price of gold will be the very least of anyone's problems.

(Wed May 27 1998 20:52 - ID#210235)
Third wave of bank loan defaults feared
Asian, Japanese get more bad news

By Miki Shimogori

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - More bad news hit

troubled banking sectors in Japan and Asia

Wednesday as Moody's Investors Service

reduced its closely watched credit ratings of

five top Japanese banks, including Bank of

Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.

At the same time, Standard & Poor's said it

expected further deterioration in the financial

state of Asian banks in general.

Moody's, the leading U.S. credit agency, also

warned that it may lower ratings of four other

top Japanese banks, triggering sales of

banking stocks in the Tokyo stock market.

Besides Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the others

downgraded by Moody's were Dai-Ichi Kangyo

Bank Ltd, Sakura Bank Ltd, Industrial Bank of

Japan Ltd and Sumitomo Bank Ltd.

Moody's also placed the credit ratings of the

Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd, Asahi

Bank Ltd, Fuji Bank Ltd and Tokai Bank Ltd

under review for possible downgrade.

The dollar briefly rose to around 138 yen and

Japanese government bond futures sagged in

Tokyo after the downgrades fueled worries

about Japan's already fragile financial sector,

cited as a main factor behind its prolonged

economic doldrums.

"These ( credit rating cuts ) may eventually

re-ignite concern about Japan's sovereign

debt rating as well," said a yen bond trader

for a trust bank's securities unit.

Moody's announcement came days after the

banks unveiled glum earnings results for the

business year that ended March 31. Ten of

Japan's biggest banks announced that they

lost a total of 1.29 trillion yen ( $9.3 billion ) in

the financial year due to massive disposals of

bad loans.

The Moody's announcement also coincided

with S&P's declaration that other banks in

Asia face further problems.

"Banks in Asia still have some further

deterioration and downside to go," Ken

McLay, director of S&P's Financial Institutions

Ratings Services, told a conference in


"We believe there will be minimum

profitability for banks in Southeast Asia as

there will be substantial deterioration in asset

quality," he said.

"S&P has most banks in Asia in the

speculative grade, in the BB category or

below, which factored in the weakening in

asset quality, reduced profitability and the

need for capital," McLay later told reporters.

Moody's cited some of the same problems in

downgrading the banks in Japan.

"The downgrades reflect concern that

Japanese banks are facing a third wave of

asset quality problems because of the

weakening domestic economy, on top of

existing problems resulting from the East

Asian crisis and the collapse of the bubble

economy," Moody's said in a statement.

Moody's said it believed that the combined

scale of the problems may overwhelm many

banks' internal resources and necessitate

substantial government help.

The problem of asset quality in the banking

sector was a top priority issue that Prime

Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto pledged to solve

at the summit of the Group of Eight this

month in Birmingham, England.

Japan's government bit the bullet on the

banking crisis in February by allowing the use

of up to 30 trillion yen ( $217 billion ) of public

money to boost banking capital and to

protect depositors.

But Moody's cast doubts on the financial

authorities' ability to settle the long-running

headache, saying it doubts if the authorities

can make "material progress" on the issue,

given their inability so far to carry out any

major action to decisively resolve the problem

of insolvent banks.

(Wed May 27 1998 20:58 - ID#27341)
another wheel falls off, thanks.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:04 - ID#210235)
You still out there? Glad to see you're posting charts again. The candlesticks will come in handy at Y2k. 14 motorcycles isn't quit enough. We'll need at least 40 just to get the regular posters movin' out. It's a start, though.

dung beetle
(Wed May 27 1998 21:05 - ID#272234)
PM's preparing to pounce on the paperboys...

( "`-''-/" ) .___..--''"`-._
`o_ o ) `-. ( ) .`-.__.` )
( _Y_. ) ' ._ ) `._ `. ``-..-'
_..`--'_..-_/ /--'_.' .'
( il ) .-'' ( li ) .' ( ( !.-

dung beetle
(Wed May 27 1998 21:06 - ID#272234)
Believe me, it looked much better on the preview.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:06 - ID#288295)
This commodity futures site provides some excellent technical analysis of lots of things. Their current analysis of all the precious metals is BEARISH. Although you may not agree with the outcome, you will probably find that this kind of detailed analysis is hard to come by in free web sites. since my ISP is acting weirdly, I will post the metals individually in subsequent posts.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:09 - ID#288295)
Tech Analysis of Gold

Strad Master
(Wed May 27 1998 21:11 - ID#250297)
SAM: Yes, I'm back. My precious little sweeties are all wonderful and growing more precious and sweet by the minute. I live in Paradise and have the worlds most beautiful family! They certainly more than make up for having lost all my investment money, so daily I count my great blessings.
Long belated thanks to IDT, Snowbird, RJ, Aurator, & Goldbug 23 for the additional kind and sympathetic good wishes posted upon my return from self-imposed exile brought on by waterlogged powder.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:11 - ID#288295)
Tech analysis of Silver

(Wed May 27 1998 21:12 - ID#288295)
Tech analysis of Platinum

(Wed May 27 1998 21:13 - ID#288295)
Tech analysis of Palladium

(Wed May 27 1998 21:16 - ID#222235)
@looking good, Mr. DB
A rose by any other name. . . .

(Wed May 27 1998 21:18 - ID#177145)
Did anyone else give in to emotion today. I just could not resist buying more RANGY at 7/8. What a buy. I hope we have seen the worst of this PM correction.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:22 - ID#153102)
You're welcome.
I guess I knew everything I've posted here beforehand, but I've never expressed it before. And the stimulus of other posts and posted stories has led to my connecting new dots. The fact all greenbacks are owned by the federal government and that the holders in due course are merely allowed to USE them according to rules and regulations was a new insight for me. In retrospect it's perfectly obvious and I wonder I never saw it clearly before. I suppose like everyone else, since I worked for them, I figured the greenbacks were my money.

If they impeach Clinton, it might alter the situation. But all the power and apparatus will still be intact. Probably just a change of personality not a change of course.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:29 - ID#335379)
Anyone goig to KB and G tonight?

(Wed May 27 1998 21:37 - ID#410215)
..... Big Time Tom .....

Alas, I will sail between June 7 - June 14. I will tip the porter extra to make sure the suite is spotless for you. It is a shame. The owner of my company will be along as well as the main representative of the Austrian Mint. This will give me ample opportunity to get a good feel for the European gold market from the dominant gold seller in Europe.

So after I spend and hour or so doing that, I will swim and eat and dance and sun and fun with the beautiful people of the world. I know you are one of these, but you will be in the next group of beautiful people.


(Wed May 27 1998 21:43 - ID#223391)
@heigh-ho Nicodemus
Friend Sam has just opened the Kitco Bar and Grill.

See ya.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:47 - ID#342376)
@ Prometheus
Can you repost the info on ICQ? ( or anyone ) I tried to download once and had no luck and now I can't find the site in my history.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:49 - ID#287193)
@mozel t o a good friend.....
mozel, my dear,

I wonder if you remember that I answered your question about the 'bremen' site 3-4 weeks ago?

That site really has the answer to your 19:58 question too.

Never in my long life has any lawyer made money off or on me. This fact alone should put me on the side of "Law & Justice & Order". But than, my compassion for all underdogs, would force me to take your side on some issues, despite being a conservative creature.

As far as the Vest goes:

"with a 'vest' like this developed for "INVEST" I would not mind riding on a donkey".

Even this donky is again related to and with gagnrad' mule. You get it?

all,incl.url's relate to gagnrad's post's!

So in, no way am I advertising for the 'Vest', but rather? for...

taking life easy and having some fun.

At the same time, my heart and my sympathy go to all those fine boys that have lost a lot of money in this tuff ( like from volcanic ) game of "GOLD&SILVER". ( not to many here at Kitco are in the other P.M.s. )



(Wed May 27 1998 21:51 - ID#255217)
mozel, Squirrel
My God, but you paint a dark picture, mozel. And yet, I can't find a flaw in your argument. I have never been accused of being an optimist, but neither am I convinced ( yet ) that things are quite as black as you suggest. Society as you seem to see it reminds me too much of an Orwellian novel in which everything is predestined and there is no hope of redemption.

I prefer to think that Squirrel's view is the one that will come closer to reality. Doing the best that one can to survive the coming trauma by being prepared . Buying beans and ammo and trying to avoid being dependent on mainstream society for anything essential.

But you COULD be right. That's what scares me. Are we so brain-dead as a nation that we have passed the point of no-return? Are we destined to play out the drama like an old '50s bete noir movie in which there are no winners and no happy ending? Has the government gotten THAT powerful? God help us all.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:54 - ID#288140)
Strad Master
Good. Can't hug 'em and kiss 'em too much, especially that little one.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:57 - ID#248180)
Farfel -17:00 @ No Harm No Foul
Thank you for the clarification. No offence was taken. We all suffer from a few anxiety attacks and can rant and rave at will on this great Kitco site. My appreciation for all the posters on this site is not expressed often enough. Thanks for your contributions and I trust that we all offer some useful stuff.
Your following statement regarding Economics brings the entire study of economics and economists into question ( "no distinction" ) :

"In Economics, there is no distinction made between wheat, pork bellies, oranges, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, etc. They are all considered under the rubric "COMMODITIES" when discussing concepts such as the effects of deflation, inflation, and/or stagflation."

Don't you think it is time to rewrite the text books?
I ask the question but do not want to debate it, as I will not be available for contribution. Thank you in advance.

(Wed May 27 1998 21:58 - ID#288369)

(Wed May 27 1998 21:58 - ID#226285)
What should this pooboy do with his 401K as the stock market tanks. Is there any safe haven?

(Wed May 27 1998 22:03 - ID#288369)
I yielded to the rangy temptation.......40,000@31/32. cheers.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:03 - ID#248180)
If only all economists could speak as clearly and be so definate. Your post spoke volumes and totally sums up todays markets and the entire world economic situation. Three cheers. Ya gotta laff.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:07 - ID#153102)
Ah, yes, Carpe Diem.

I didn't think you were advertising or promoting the Vest. The disparity between the resources supporting the Vest and the resources of the typical accused just struck me; so I posed a question. There really is a phenomenal amount of resources required by that Vest.

All I recall about the Bremen site conversation, I regret to say, is some expressions of solidarity between the German sponsors and a convicted Sioux from the showdown at Pine Ridge.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:09 - ID#288140)
Scan & post Kitco, chat at the bar, knock back a few vodka and pickles, listen to Buddy Guy on the jukebox ( ) all at the same time and all on the house!!

(Wed May 27 1998 22:11 - ID#412286)
This weekend
standby for continuation of the political debate! Democratic Socialism Yes and GO GOLD!!

(Wed May 27 1998 22:12 - ID#284255)
TYRO - Kitco retreival system
Peter Grandich
It is my opinion that the overriding reason gold
has performed poorly is due to the undisputable
fact that the overall equity market has done so
well. It is not a coincidence that the stock market
stumbled and fumbled from the mid-1970s
through the early '80s while gold enjoyed its one
mega-bull market since gold was allowed to
freely trade in the mid-'70s. This clear
non-coincidence reversed itself simultaneously as
equities began a historic astronomic rise, which is
now in its 16th year, while gold lost most of its

This fact has been underscored for several years
now, whereupon I have asked an audience such
as this one, the following question:

How many of you have actually purchased
physical bullion - not stocks or rare coins, but
actual gold coins or bars? The response is usually
5% - 10% of the audience. When I asked how
many have purchased individual non-gold related
stocks or mutual funds, virtually all the hands go

This poll has always been a good indicator of the
true lack of investment demand worldwide and
why excuses like Central Bank sales have
received far more credit than they are deserving.

This is not to say Central Bank sales aren't a
factor, but those who use it as their top negative
factor, either have forgotten or don't even know,
that the level of sales now being blamed for golds
poor performance has been matched or exceeded
during gold's previous bull market. This
undisputable fact is what, in my mind, makes me
underscore the performance of the stock market
as gold's number one enemy. Like oil and vinegar,
a rising stock market just can't mix with a rising
gold price.

I have personally refrained from standing in front
of this runaway train known as the DJIA for
several years now.

And while the list of bearish indicators increases, I
can't help but feel the "Don't Worry, Be Happy"
crowd on Wall Street will make 10,000 on the
Dow a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I could literally spend hours just noting the
numerous technical and fundamental problems,
however, a few standouts in my opinion are:

Margin Debt - They say a bull market can't end
until there is a speculative frenzy. They also say
when the average Joe thinks he can't lose, he will
borrow money to play the game. Well, margin
debt is now twice as high as it has ever been since
borrowing became available.

Inflation - If only I had a dollar for each time I
heard the stock market is not overvalued due to
this period of low interest rates and inflation. The
fact of the matter is there have been numerous
periods of time when interest rates and inflation
were this low or lower, yet the stock market
didn't rise.

They tell us inflation is dead. Well, before you
send flowers, take a look at the alarming rise in
the nation's money supply.

For the first time since the 1980s, The Shadow
Open Market Committee expressed serious
concern over it. They recently said "The seeds of
high inflation have been and are being sown. It is
irresponsible to ignore the increased money
growth in the last six months."

Economy - At the end of the day, stock
ownership comes down to being part owner of a
business. And in any business, the most important
factor is the bottom line. Make no mistake about
it, despite a worldwind of creative accounting,
write-offs, and other magical events, corporate
America is witnessing an economic backdrop
change. Through the '90s American households
struggled to get ahead while corporate profits
rose. Now, profit margins are being squeezed by
tight labor markets. By year's-end the markets PE
average could be 3 to 5 times larger than the
corporate profit growth rate. Can you spell tulips?

So whether or not 10,000 on the Dow is
achieved I feel quite comfortable that we are
entering a transition period that will be looked
back on as the turning point for stocks losing their
elite status and precious metals losing their dog

Let me also point out that a collapse in stocks will
not necessarily be good for gold as it would not
give enough time for a true investment shift to take
place. In terms of gold, the market is clearly going
through a bottoming phase but needs, desperately
I might add, to get above $325. If and when this
occurs, strong technical-buy signals should be
triggered which will not only bring in hot money
flow but will likely give positive media coverage
which can trigger investment interest.

If all this occurs, as politically correct as selling
gold forward or lending was, it will become
unpopular. Bottom line, the cup will go from
half-empty to half-full.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:14 - ID#307271)
After hearing so much commotion about Kaplan, had to find the latest update. Here it is for others who want to read: Updated today @6:10 EDT.

Very encouraging.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:16 - ID#43349)
It used to be that if a country's economy was relatively closed, the
rate of economic expansion could be controlled simply by the control of
interest rates. If things got too hot rates could be raised. If things
slowed too much money could be made cheaper.
Even in this era of global economics that could be done if there were
some single global medium of exchange, but there isn't. So what happens
is that if rates are lowered to encourage expansion the money all leaves
the country to one with higher rates and a stronger economy. Instead of
stimulating the economy one precipitates a currency crises.
If rates are raised it attracts even more money from areas where
borrowing is cheaper. Instead of cooling the economy one creates a flood
of liquidity.
This has a kind of Alice in wonderland quality to it where the harder
you run the further back you get.
The sectorization and globalization of currencies makes it possible for
the reserves of entire countries to be looted by the manipulations of
speculators who can wield billions of dollars worth of paper assets. The
wealth thus accumulated can than be used for loans to "bail out" the
collapsed economies thus earning even more return.
Problems associtated with seprate countries having their seperate banking
systems has lead the Europeans to attempt a partial solution of unifying
under a single currency standard, but untill some sort of global system
comes into being the problems will persist.
Gold was once used as such a more or less global medium of exchange, but
has now become little more than a commodity to be priced by the whims of the
producers, banks and speculators. It has fallen by the wayside in that role
because of the difficulty of manipulating a physical substance which can not
be created out of thin air whenever desired. Governmental banking systems
thus feel less in control of thier economic environment than they do when
using a more plastic fiat system. The irony of course is that the more the
local economy feels in control the less control there is of the global
It matters little what the universal medium of exchange might be, what
matters is that the world's economy is a global one but at the mercy of
the dynamics of provincial systems in much the same way that the world's
environment is at the mercy of a few entreprenuers cutting down selling
rain forests in far off places.
Under the present way of doing things, eventually the world's wealth
will become controlled by whoever is in command of whichever country is
seen to have the strongest economy and currency.
It is interesting to see the different reactions of various countries
as the process unfolds. Japan has lowered it's rates so far in the attempt
to stimulate the economy that they are practically giving away free Yen.
Russia on the other hand has raised rates so high to attempt to keep
capital from fleeing that tehy will be giving it all away as interest
payments ( if they honor the terms, of course ) .
Just as in the roaring twenties the land of the strong dollar basks in
the illusion of high paying jobs with no inflation and ever expanding wealth
in the equity markets, while the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard
place. Eventually comes the collapse.
In the tweties, the seeds of unrest planted overseas flowered into a world
war. What will come out of Russia, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, or any of the
lands that have had the seeds of unrest planted once again? Will they be
greatful to the IMF? Will they thank their lucky stars that the good ol'
USA is there to protect and uphold human rights?
Once again, time will tell.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:18 - ID#401460)
Swiss & Gold Timing.

LONDON, May 27 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices wobbled in Europe on Wednesday but then recovered after the Swiss government approved draft legislation to cut the Swiss franc's link to the precious metal.

While analysts agreed the announcement contained little new, its timing and the manner of its release suggested that the health of the gold market was a low priority for the Swiss.


(Wed May 27 1998 22:20 - ID#66136)
SILVERBARON {Tech sites were great- regretfully I agree more down.
Commod mkt in general looks real grim with many long term new lows as a set up for significant deflation. Looking at 90 PM issues it appears traders and specialist just don't want to hold any positions dropping bids very fast wether low or high vol. Lots of downside gaps today and the type of damage that will take some time to repair. This could sort the real believers while the variables of Asia, Russia, Switzerland, and good faith and credit of gov't sort out.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:29 - ID#342376)
@ Mozel
I have been reading your posts too and am thankful for them. Your perception is so keen, your posts eloquent. I am sensitive to the troubles in this world too, but don't have your intellectual faculties and experience. I hope that your are not drawn too far down by what you see. Life is hard and it can be easy to see all the wrongs in this world, there is no shortage. I hope that you have close friends and family that can make this life bearable. If you do not, let me tell you that I love reading your posts and I am with you. You remind me of my father. He destested what America has become. Not so much from loss of liberty as you, but the devolution of language and art, but the feelings are the same. He once told me if Rainer Marie Rilke could walk into a McDonald's, he would die of shock immediately. Here is a quote from letters of Rilke-- "Even for our grandparents a house, a well, a familiar tower, their very clothes, their coat: were infinitely more, infinitely more intimate; almost everything a vessel in which they found the human and added to the store of the human. Now, from America, empty indifferent things are pouring across, sham things, dummy life.....A house, in the American sense, an American apple or a grapevine over there, has nothing in common with the house, the fruit, the grape into which went the hopes and reflections of our forefathers....Live things, things lived and conscient of us, are running out and can no longer be replaced. We are perhaps the last still to have known such things......."

(Wed May 27 1998 22:32 - ID#45173)
Did someone ask about a Y2K movie? Panic now, avoid the rush...
May 27, 1998: New York Post



Is "Y2K" the movie the government doesn't want you to see? Whispers coming out of Washington say that experts working on solving the Year 2000 ( Y2K ) problem - the prospect that a software bug will cause the world's computers to crash on or before Jan. 1, 2000 - are nervously eyeing "Y2K," a Warner Bros. techno-thriller now in development.

According to a source inside the D.C.-based working group of 200 computer-industry professionals and government officials grappling with the oblem, the group has discussed the possible adverse impact of the movie on the public mood.

The fear is that "Y2K," set for a fall 1999 release date, could fuel panic among an already jittery American public.

The movie stars Chris O'Donnell as a computer programmer who discovers dangerous information while working on a corporation's software as the zero hour approaches. The drama is not about the Y2K catastrophe itself, but centers on a harrowing personal dilemma the programmer is mired in as a result of the crisis.

"In any movie, you're looking at a ticking clock, and this is the greatest ticking clock ever," says Stu Zicherman, a New York native and the film's screenwriter. "It's one of the few deadlines in the history of the world that you can't push back."

"Y2K" is being developed by O'Donnell's George Street productions. Aside from O'Donnell in the lead role, the film has not yet been cast, nor has a director been chosen. It will be filmed in New York City.

"From what I've seen, this is kind of like "Deep Impact' with the year 2000 in the background," says Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, and a technical adviser on the film.

"There's nothing to suggest that we're in danger of being hit soon by a meteor. But we're definitely going to be hit by the Year 2000 problem."

Y2K experts familiar with the screenplay say the movie may be tense and dramatic, but it won't inspire panic in the streets. By the time "Y2K" hits theaters, the public - which up until now has appeared to be largely unconcerned with the millennium bug threat - will have been thoroughly briefed by the media.

Experts such as Yardeni ( ) have been sounding the Y2K alarm for years. Among the possible consequences of the crash are a collapse of banks and stock markets, the loss of electrical power, the freezing of transportation systems, hunger and civil unrest.

Yet no one can be certain how bad it's going to be when the clock strikes midnight on Dec. 31, 1999. Y2K guru Peter De Jager ( ) , another of the film's advisers, complains that the media have been uninterested in the story to this point. He fears that when film, television and news media finally wake up to the seriousness of this problem, they may overreact, and terrify the public with irresponsible sensationalism.

But De Jager says that Washington "shouldn't worry about this particular movie. I've heard plans for other movies that they should be worried about.

"I believe Warner Bros. is handling this responsibly," De Jager adds. "But anybody who writes a movie about how everything fails, and then somebody like, say, Bill Gates, solves it in one evening, will not be. It's going to ( a ) panic people and ( b ) lull them to sleep when they need to be aware of things they can do to cope with the problem."

Zicherman sold his pitch to Warner Bros. back in January for a reported six figures. Since then, he's been hard at work on the script.

"At first, I didn't much buy into it all," he says of the Y2K problem. "Over the past year, with all the research I've done, and the people I've talked to, like De Jager and Ed Yardeni, I've come to believe it. And it's staggering."

Zicherman says that corporations' rush to fix their software will cause chaos inside those companies, which, in their haste, will be forced to give access to highly privileged information to lowly software engineers.

"This creates a real opportunity for someone to do something nobody will know about," he says cryptically, refusing to discuss the plot further.

"At a big studio like Warner Bros., there's a responsibility to do it right, but we also want to make it exciting," Zicherman adds. "The danger is there'll be runs on banks. But the problem is, people don't listen unless you scare them, and there's still a lot people can do to prepare for this."

Gary North ( ) , one of the more urgent Internet voices discussing Y2K eparation, believes that the situation will be far worse than the U.S. government has let on. He also believes that Hollywood will exploit fear with "Y2K" and other films, which at this late date stand to harm more than help.

"It's almost like showing the original "Airport' movies on a cross-country flight on a plane you in fact know will have serious mechanical failure problems," he says. "No doubt it will be thrilling; it just won't be positive."

(Wed May 27 1998 22:32 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
asking about gold ... do you have any particular view? I think we may see much more downside yet, but eventually gold is going to represent an excellent long trade over several years IMHO.

my view on gold could not be more bearish. the commitments of traders report gives one a snapshot of where the open interest is every 2 weeks. it indicates that there is a predisposition on the part of BOTH the small insignifigant speculator AND the large well financed hedge fund operator to be long at all costs. i really think the gold can go down a lot from here

...I think we might see 250 this time. If the Russians sell more of their gold to help out their economic problems that could further force a drop in price.

you know i saw that russia has 15-16 billion of reserves left after yesterday; and 4.5 billion of that is in gold -- and considered illiquid. what is to stop them from holding a fire sale on gold? your 250 may be conservative

I believe Prechter was looking for gold to reach 200 before he dived in on the long side ... it may yet happen.

yes, prechter thinks that we revisit 103. it is an elegant elliott analysis really-- but somehow hard to fathom in these times..... = probably gonna happen

One of the strange things about Gold owners/ holders is they never seem realistic. I was talking to 2C about it and I asked him for a "REAL GOLD BUG" analyst who has been bearish on GOLD for the last 3-5 years and now is a BULL.. Gold buyers seem like they wear blinders...more than any other investment/trade.

there's been a fair amount of speculation that Buffet has been buying gold as well as silver ... may be a little premature in his timing?

I predict that Buffet has stepped across the line from what he knows to something he don't. of course i wish i had his money to lose

It really depends how far gold drops, and whether Buffet can afford to hold on. Ultimately I think there will be a big bull run in gold, but who knows how far it must fall first?

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Boris Yeltsin's government took drastic measures to halt panic selling in Russia's financial markets Wednesday, but investors kept bailing out as the nation slid closer to a full-fledged economic crisis. The Central Bank tripled its main interest rate Wednesday to a whopping 150 percent. The move was meant to keep investors in the Russian market, but analysts said such high rates were unsustainable. Seizing the chance to attack his longtime foe, Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov declared that Russia was on the verge of economic collapse and needed early presidential elections to replace Yeltsin. ``You've come here at the height of a national catastrophe,'' Zyuganov told members of the International Press Institute in Moscow. ``The government lacks the money to pay wages to miners, teachers, doctors, servicemen and others.'' Speculation is growing that Russia will need a multibillion-dollar rescue package from the International Monetary Fund, similar to the ones arranged after Asia's financial crisis struck last year. An IMF delegation was coming to Moscow on Thursday. The government's biggest fear is that the ruble will collapse, resulting in steep price hikes. Already, a decade of economic turmoil has impoverished millions of Russians, and a new surge in prices will strain the patience of the country's 147 million people. ``Certainly Russians are panicking, selling anything they can,'' said Martin Diggle, head of trading at Brunswick Warburg brokerage in Moscow. ``The market is all one-way at this point.'' The Russian government said it has not yet requested additional help from the IMF or any other international financial institution. But another strong dose of bad financial news sent investors fleeing. Russian stocks crashed again, falling more than 10 percent Wednesday. The Russia Trading System is now the worst-performing market in the world -- down more than 50 percent this year. The Central Bank intervened again Wednesday to support the battered Russian currency. The ruble fell early in the day, but finished little changed at around 6.19 to the U.S. dollar. Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko stressed that the government had no plans for a devaluation of the ruble. But the Central Bank will not be able to spend huge sums to prop up the ruble indefinitely. Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin said the country's gold and hard currency reserves had dropped from $15.5 billion Friday to $14 billion Wednesday. Most or all of that $1.5 billion was believed to have been spent on supporting the currency.

most are so wrapped up in their US equity coocoon that they don;t realize the potential ramifications of the changes in world order that are occuring

Can the IMF handle all these potential collapses, or are they becoming like the US military, stretched too far with too few assets?

Do you admit the possibility that the US markets may [continue to] become a world-wide safe-haven commodity?

you just cannot go through life with blinders on ..... look around at what is happening in the financial turmoil my friend ... only in the US do things appear rosey

then again just how much more capital can be expected to be sucked out of other world economies to feed this bulls appetite?

resession is when everyone talks about being outta work....... a depression is when you find yourself outta work:}

Are you buying gold with that mentality? EVERYTHING in LIFE is only worth what someone else will pay for it.

things were a lot of dangerous then. The potential for doom never changes it is just an individuals perception that changes. Just read some investment newsletters or watch a business news show. Even in the best or worst time you will find Michael Metz predicting Gold to 400 soon.

I mean back in the late 80's when the US financial secor was on the verge of collapsing ... that was nothing compared to what is currently happening around the globe ....complete economies are being destroyed before your very eyes!!!!

The German economy of the 1920s might be considered destroyed with the hyperinflation. When you have to spend a billion marks for some bread, your economy could be said to be somewhat destroyed.

I'm not here for centuries so I can't wait for these smucks to get right.... my time is short and so am I in this market......except for one very large bundle on silver and gold. Now counts not years from now.

Economic collapses have led to extreme political and social changes over the centuries. I can think of more than a few off the top of my head. Even in the U.S., the Great Depression led to the creation of the semi-socialist state that we all pay for today.

the world has just not changed very much over the past 5000 years ....economic hardship creates conflict which will create uncertainty .... the past few years have been relatively conflict free cause the world enjoyed a good economic period.... that situation is now changing and all the bad stuff is probably now unavoidable .....equities don't relish uncertainty

(Wed May 27 1998 22:36 - ID#153102)
The federal government is the most powerful organization on earth. It is pure folly to think this organization will not function during Y2K especially after you read the power that can be authorized to FEMA with a few strokes of a pen. It may take them a few years to get out in the boonies where Squirrel is. But, for most, FEMA will be in their face early on in the Y2K Emergency and ever more thereafter.

I always felt Solzenitzen ( sp ) was a man of insight. One thing that comes through in his accounts of life in the soviet union is that the system could not have functioned at all without believers. You see, it is people with ideals who matter. Most people are content to live mostly in the flesh and have fun. I guess to them idealists are and always have been immature. Americans have enjoyed over 200 years of freedom from the inspired efforts of some idealists. Diminishing freedom, to be sure, as the cynics and skeptics pared away at the ideals. But, there are now and for the last seventy years New Idealists with their hands on the levers of power. They have a System in place now. When they have run the country into the ground like the communists did to Russia, perhaps there will be a rebirth of freedom on this continent. But, realistically, I fear you can say of most of the people today that they will not know what they have to lose until it's gone. There are, after all, sound reasons why so many tyrants have prospered throughout history.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:36 - ID#57232)
Swiss Frank and Gold
Kiwi, Jack: Interesting points about the Swiss Frank. The Swiss are in the enviable position of having one of the few currencies in the world that comes close to being a 'hard' currency, although even the Swiss Frank has been decoupled from gold, and inflated over the years.

Kiwi -- Re: 'Breaking the link between gold and SWFR' is a formality only, as the link was broken years ago. So that is talk too.

Jack -- I think there are several reasons the Swiss are 'talking down gold'. The first is the one mentioned today by sharefin and others -- namely, fear of world financial conflagration. A second is that the Swiss can ill afford to have their currency skyrocket up, megnetically attracting 'fiat' currencies from every nook and cranny of the world. If they do this, how do they sell goods and services to others, unless the Swiss firms in question are international? ( ie do business like the Japanese ) . By the way, the Swiss are smart enough to figure this out, and their multinational companies such as Nestle and Ciba-Geigy will do well no matter how strong the Swiss Frank is. But theire economy is not fully diversified, and they are just coming out of a recession. A third reason is that the younger Western ( fiat ) educated Swiss bankers probably believe that gold is a useless relic. But not the average Swiss citizen, who can vote down any attempts to sell gold.

So -- a little more Swiss talk about gold sales and decoupling the Swiss Frank to talk gold down one more time. This period of weak Gold won't last much longer, unless we have more serial worldwide deflations -- outside the US. How about the Chinese Yuan -- when do the Communist Chinese pull the plug?

(Wed May 27 1998 22:38 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter - OLDMAN
First bounce here AINT it. Wait for the retest and you'll be able to tell your grandkids you bought the bottom of the Great Jacad/Models Crash of Spring '98.: ) Should come tomorrow---maybe later today.

This bounce is definitely tradeable for 10-15 handles, IMO. Dont stay TOO long, though.

Yup, Sam, you'd think someone as old as I am would know that a bond under 6% and rallying means we are gonna crash immediately.

We will crash when we reach the time when the majority of folks on this chat quit hollering, "Bear!" everytime we get 2 or 3% under all time highs. Dont claim to know when that will be, but most likely in the fall. The bullish case would be helped by another 20 or so handles of drop here. A breakout to the upside this week would've been short-lived, IMO. For those who must buy puts, go ahead and get it over with today.: ) See you tonite. Be careful.

I'm sure that taking out last month's low, will lead ot a vicious bear market, just like it has the other EIGHT ( 8 ) times it has done that since the beginning of 1996. really gone now. bbac.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:46 - ID#207145)
(catching knives)
YOU GUYS ARE SMART TRADERS-INVESTORS. wHY then do you throw good money after bad. It reminds me of a poem by keats; unrequieted love ( of gold ) . Gold is playing hard to get, so, play the game. WAIT. Hold yourr fire till you see the WHITES OF THEIR EYES. YOU ----have self control. Catching knives can get you killed.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:48 - ID#27341)
Gollum, looks spot-on.

(Wed May 27 1998 22:55 - ID#30116)
Point well taken..

(Wed May 27 1998 22:58 - ID#255217)
I would like to have known your father.You are fortunate. My opinion of McDonalds is that they should all be razed to the ground and fields of wildflowers planted in their stead. I have similar feelings about Whataburger, Taco Bell, et. al.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:00 - ID#207145)
one more bounce-double top in dow-sp500 coming.
before gold takes off for real. I agree that bear mkt. in dow = bull market for gold. We will buy unbelievably cheap. So controll your emotions, and just watch the price of gold...NO ONE is smart enough to be your GURU. There is no Moses here, but there is a promised land.......... DOW BEAR IS WHERE THE MILK AND HONEY IS. nICE TO POST, ILIKE YOUR STYLE, kitco.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:03 - ID#57232)
Is there an analogy between the Weimar Repulblic and Russia?
All: Here's a disturbing thought. What would happen to the Ruble if the current Russian financial crisis continues? If the Russians maintain 150% interest rates, their economy will collapse ( as would ours ) . If they do not, foreign investors continue to leave in droves, and the Ruble plummets, and what is left of their economy collapses anyway.

If this crisis cannot be resolved promptly ( I don't have a clue how ) -- we will have a Russian revolution. This may appear relatively unimpressive on the outside looking in, but to me the thought is very disturbing because of the likely government that will form. It will not be democratic, ( or 'idyllic' New World Order ) , and it will not be Communistic, either -- mozel can fill in these broad brush strokes better than I. Perhaps the Fatima prophesies are coming true.

Similar things could happen later in Japan and possibly South Korea.

And -- the so-called New World Order is really a bystander, acting only through the IMF -- which is capable only of helping basically financially sound banks get back on their feet. The IMF only gets in the way in crises like the ones we are having all over the world. Communism -- as practiced in Russia - is dead. But that is not the only economic form that is dying on the vine.

We regretfully must consider the possibility that we ( the world ) are seeing the seeds of the next world military crises forming slowly infront of our very eyes, and little is being done to prevent the inevitable. What I am referring to may take 10-15 years to evolve -- and I hope I am wrong.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:07 - ID#57232)
sharefin: My guess is that the Oldman went long on the spoos this afternoon ( USA time ) . Was the avid chatter you posted from yesterday?

(Wed May 27 1998 23:09 - ID#57232)
Whites of their eyes
blooper: You are so right. Some of us gold bugs jumped in a bit too soon. I still have some dry powder -- much more than the 5% of the average boomer -- but much less than I should have.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:11 - ID#43349)
Party trick
Look closely. Nothing up my sleeve. Take
billions of dollars and invest them in stocks..

Trade the stocks back and forth at ever higher
prices so they become worth even more.

Now crash the market so no one wants to buy

Where did the money go?

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed May 27 1998 23:13 - ID#432214)
Deflation ???
Anybody have any thoughts of what percentage of the drop in general commodities is caused by falling demand vs large commodity funds shorting the underlying commodity. It appears that the CRB Index is getting pounded, but how much of this is short selling vs a drop off in demand that would indicate a monster deflation.

Much confusion Yes ...

Go Gold

(Wed May 27 1998 23:13 - ID#153102)
@Gollum @crazytimes
Gollum Great explanation of the irreducible instability in the fiat currency scheme. Scary to follow the thoughts to their logical conclusion, isn't it ?

crazytimes It is the evil engine of usury which has, by its inexorable demand to be fed more and more, disrupted the way of life that nourished both the knowledge and ideals necessary for liberty and the culture grieved for by Rilke and your father. The same demon in demoncracy destroyed them both.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:16 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
Another Matt Drudge special! He has radar I think!

John B__A
(Wed May 27 1998 23:18 - ID#17470)
I was pleased to see your 14:46 post. I did screw up my courage and bought Hecla and CDE today. Wish I had as much confidence in these stocks as I do that silver may have made a bottom. If anyone has a better silver stock to buy, I would listen. thanks,

Date: Wed May 27 1998 14:46
APH ( If, If, If ) ID#254201:
If you have been following these posts over the last few weeks and waited for the correction target area of 5.10-4.90 to be reached you were rewarded with a low risk entry point of 5.10 or lower basis July Silver. Keep a close only stop under 5.00. We've had two opportunities to buy under 5.10 in the last week rarely does a market give you three chances to buy and when it does odds are you don't want it anyway. If 5.00 holds I would consider it a wave 2 bottom. Next objective wave 1 of 3... $7.00.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:19 - ID#207145)
sharefin, tell us more
what is your scenerio to the year 2002?

(Wed May 27 1998 23:19 - ID#373403)
Dry powder
I need more gold, they're practically giving the stuff away. Actually, between $290 and $315 FDPMX went from $10 to $12. Maybe I will buy more FDPMX, it's almost $10 again.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:24 - ID#207145)
I love the CRB index, but it is starting to SCARE THE HELL out of me. Iffin it dont stop fallin, we might be paving the streets with gold before we go to heaven.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:30 - ID#57232)
Dropping CRB -- logging off for real
All: In a perverse sort of way, what could be more bullish for the US stock markets than a plummeting commodities price index? On the other hand, will it continue to drop below its 10-15 year low?

Deflationary news certainly can heat up the equity markets -- if it is the right kind of news. But what is going to happen to the US equity markets when the CRB/JCI really bottoms out and heads back up?

(Wed May 27 1998 23:31 - ID#342376)
I installed ICQ
What on earth do I do now? I have flashing icon's on my task bar. I havn't a clue!

(Wed May 27 1998 23:31 - ID#207145)
a kid with a new toy.
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiI have a hopeless love for gold, and an intrest in, and respect for this group. Im like a kid with a new toy, so i'll let it rest. I close with trepidation for the next 3-5 years. It's going to be hard to make a buck yall.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:33 - ID#284255)
You have to remember SAR - sell and reverse.
With the speed and intellect with which Oldman plays the spoos
His positions are very short term and reversed quickly.

Yes, the report was from yesterday morning.

The day before he said he was long,
And the market tanked.
I'll bet he made money on that downside.
He would have simply SAR.

He is not interested in holding positions,
With an opinion, just playing them.

For others who have longer perspectives,
Playing positions off his comments,
Is exceedingly dangerous.

His style plays in hours, not months.
Similiar to RJ's style.

It is not what will happen in the future
That they are betting on.
It is what is happening this hour and the next.
That is all that matters.

And to have your finger on the SAR button.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:34 - ID#207145)
how can the CRB mount anything serious ( oil maybe ) with asia in the tank. asia is down for a verry long count.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:35 - ID#210114)
Much ado about Nothing

Frankfurt--May 27--Switzerland will not be legally able to plan gold sales
before the year 2000 at the earliest, after the necessary legal changes
have been made, Swiss National Bank spokesman Werner Abegg told Bridge
today. "It is realistic not to expect gold sale plans before 2000 at the
earliest," Abegg said. By Lita Olbrich, Bridge News, Story .12698

(Wed May 27 1998 23:35 - ID#233199)
Ok Shorts ---cover your ifs or's and butts

(Wed May 27 1998 23:36 - ID#207145)
where are shortages going to come from? ( CRB ) .

(Wed May 27 1998 23:38 - ID#57232)
Yes - you are right
sharefin: I agree -- he is truly amazing how he can turn on a dime. And probably still make a profit, while the rest of us are still watching.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:39 - ID#43349)
@Gold&Silver&Platinum Bug
I would have to say most of the prices are
not truly determined by supply and demand.

Demand is from people who intend to take
physical delivery and Supply from people who
produce the physical.

Prices are mostly pushed up and down by the
sellers ( shorts ) who don't have it to sell
and buyers ( longs ) who don't intend to take

It is only when the warehouses go empty or
full that true supply and demand has much
effect by causing a squeeze or a crash.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:39 - ID#284255)
I have to do some painting.

Will think long and hard and
Come back to you on that tough question.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:41 - ID#207145)
I love drilling stocks too. Oil bottoms 2nd week in june. Strong until 1, Jan. They will scream until we reach 9230 again, then they along with everything else will go to hell in Sep-Oct time frame. Nice bounce for GOLD too. Trading rally only.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:42 - ID#210114)
ECB announcement was originally supposed to be in May. Then June. The Board ( Bored? ) meets for the first time on June 2 or 6. Apparentlky ther announcement has been put off til July.

Live Long and Propser ( without Swiss Gold Sales ) .

(Wed May 27 1998 23:44 - ID#57232)
blooper: Several possibilities.

First -- ElNino induced forrest fires in Mexico and S America spreading to Florida -- crop failures here or elsewhere later in the year.

Second -- reduced trade from SEAsia will mean less future deflationary effects until SEAsia recovers. Not soon.

Third -- many potential world hotspots heating up -- all could cause oil prices to skyrocket.

Forth -- Perhaps much of the commodities drop was hedge fund selling -- due to incorrectly perceived deflation.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:44 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron, Servhard, ROR and all
S&S Nope, still can't get into the URLs except for the one about crime. And echo the sentiment IDCIBM, but remember that is purely for myself and not advice for anyone else. Recalling that my sentiments are a contrary indicator. IMHO

ROR, you know there are other people in the world who truly are looking for real answers and all the your need for control doesn't make things happen. Political debate, my shiney red donkey! Sounds like theory to me. I find in the real world the biggest socialists are always the ones who've never helped out in a soup kitchen, gave a buck to a wino nor offered to give a druggie a ride to the AIDS clinic in their clean white car. Pardon, I meant red car. IMVHO

A person who acted upon beliefs you say are yours would post a sign in their front yard saying 'we don't believe in guns here' then one on their bedroom door saying 'from each according to his capabilities and to each according to his needs'. I figure in the real world they'd last about 2 days. IMMVVHO

(Wed May 27 1998 23:46 - ID#207145)
Thanks for the consideration. I know my question was too broad. That is how i like to think, otherwise, i cant justify short term foolishness. Again, thanks, ana good night.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:46 - ID#284255)
Prometheus posted this yeterday - But worth a good read.
The Asian crisis and world capitalism

A warning from Dr Greenspan
By Nick Beams - 26 May 1998

For the latest analysis and comments by the World Socialist Web Site see:
"The political crisis in Indonesia"

Testimony delivered last week to the US House of Representatives by Federal Reserve Board chief Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has highlighted growing fears in world financial circles that the Asian crisis, far from being over, is only just beginning.

The circumstances in which the testimony was delivered were themselves extraordinary. The two most powerful figures in the world of global finance were forced to go cap in hand to the House agriculture committee, asking Congress to approve the Clinton administration's request for an $18 billion increase in reserves for the International Monetary Fund.

In the past, such a request would have been a matter of routine. Such are the divisions in US ruling circles that today it is being bitterly opposed, amid calls for the IMF to be scrapped altogether.

In an effort to counter such tendencies, Greenspan and Rubin warned that if the crises which hit Thailand, Korea and Indonesia spread, the IMF would not have sufficient funds to stem a widening collapse. A global financial panic could result.

"These occurrences are possible, and the consequences to us could be severe," Rubin said. "We cannot afford to take the risk that such events could start to unfold and the IMF does not have the capacity to cope effectively."

He said the IMF had about $15 billion left after commitments already made -- not enough to deal with another Asian crisis.

Greenspan's testimony, like previous speeches he has delivered on the Asian crisis, demonstrates that the world's central bankers have no clear comprehension of the operations of global financial markets, and no plan for controlling their violent movements.

The global system, Greenspan told the congressional committee, exposed and punished "underlying economic imprudence swiftly and decisively" but regrettably "it also appears to have facilitated the transmission of financial disturbances more effectively than ever before."

"We do not as yet fully understand the new system's dynamics. We are learning fast, and need to update and modify our institutions and practices to reduce the risks inherent in the new regime. Meanwhile, we have to confront the current crisis with the institutions and techniques we have."

Answering critics of the IMF who have maintained that the crisis in East Asia should have been allowed to run its course without any outside intervention, Greenspan warned that such an approach was too risky.

"There was and is ... a small but not negligible probability that the upset in East Asia could have unexpectedly large negative effects on Japan, Latin America, and eastern and central Europe that, in turn, could have repercussions elsewhere, including the United States.

"Thus, while the probability of such an outcome may be small, its consequences, in my judgment, should not have been left solely to chance. We have observed that global financial markets, as currently organised, do not always achieve an appropriate equilibrium, or at least require time to stabilize. Moreover, the effects of the Asian crisis on the real economies of the immediately affected areas, as well as on our own economy, are only now just being felt."

The impact on the "real economies" is reflected in the latest growth estimates. The East Asian region, which has contributed half the growth in world output throughout this decade, is contracting.

In Indonesia estimates of an 8 percent growth rate for 1998, made a year ago, have now been revised downwards to negative growth of at least 9 percent, while other estimates put the contraction at between 10 and 15 percent.

The South Korean economy, now in the grip of a credit squeeze imposed by the IMF as part of its restructuring program, is expected to contract by at least 4 percent, while Thailand will experience negative growth of at least 7 percent.

Japan's banking crisis

But serious as the downturn is in the former "Asian tigers," it is overshadowed by the crisis in Japan. Last week the Bank of Japan admitted for the first time that the economy could be entering a deflationary spiral in which "production, income and expenditure show negative interactions with each other". In such a situation, falling production gives rise to declining incomes, leading to expenditure cutbacks and further falls in output.

According to the conventional economic wisdom, such a vicious economic circle is countered by increases in government spending and reductions in bank interest rates.

However both these supposed remedies have already been tried and failed in Japan. Despite a series of stimulation packages, combined with cuts in interest rates to record lows, the Japanese economy is set to show negative growth in 1998.

The main reason for the failure of the stimulation packages is the weight of bank debt. Official Ministry of Finance figures put the bad debt of the banks at $600 billion, but according to other estimates it may be at least 40 percent higher. In other words, the negative economic impact of the banking crisis is equivalent to twice the Gross Domestic Product of Australia.

And the crisis in Asia is worsening the position of the Japanese banks, which are estimated to have around $44 billion in bad loans to the region. Loans outstanding in Indonesia alone total $23 billion -- none of which will be repaid unless the value of the rupiah is increased.

The banking crisis is also having a significant impact on capital markets and the value of the yen. With interest rates at an historic low, money is moving out of Japan to seek a higher rate of return in the United States.

This outflow of capital is in turn leading to a fall in the value of the currency. On May 19 the yen went to 137 to the dollar -- its lowest point in six years. Figures for April show that during that month the Bank of Japan spent $21 billion, nearly a tenth of its total reserves of $220 billion, attempting to boost its value.

The chief motivation for the bank's defence of the yen is the fear that a rapid devaluation -- to 150 or even lower -- will set off a new round of currency depreciations through the region.

An abrupt fall in the yen will place increased pressure on the South Korean won, leading in turn to a devaluation of the Chinese currency. This could trigger a "second wave" of currency collapses across the East Asian region, with far-reaching recessionary consequences for the world economy.

Already the effects of the Asian financial crisis are starting to show up in US economic statistics. The trade deficit in goods and services, resulting from cheaper imports and cuts in export markets, was $13 billion in March -- the highest monthly level in history. The trade gap for the first three months of the year was $36.8 billion, an increase of 26 percent on last year.

In his testimony to the agriculture committee Rubin noted that around 16 percent of all US farm production goes to Asia. Exports to key countries in the first three months of the year were down $23 billion on an annualized basis, he said, with the situation likely to worsen in the period ahead.

In the crucial electronics industry growth estimates are being revised down. Earlier this year the $136 billion semi-conductor industry was predicted to grow by 7 percent in 1998. Now the estimate is for a contraction of 0.6 percent.

Overall the contraction of economic demand from the East Asian region is calculated to be around one trillion dollars.

Within business circles earlier hopes that the major western nations had been able to ride out the Asian collapse are giving way to a much more pessimistic outlook and the expression of fears that the worst is yet to come.

An editorial in the London-based Financial Times of May 23 warned: "The longer the Asian crisis goes on, the greater the repercussions for the rest of the world could be. And at the moment, the end does not seem in sight. Worse, another twist of the vicious circle, with further damaging currency devaluations and resulting financial problems still cannot be ruled out."

Western countries had yet to receive the full force of the crisis, the editorial stated, and there were dangers of a second round of currency devaluations. If either, or both, the Japanese yen and the Chinese renminbi were to plunge, "the effect on the world economy would dwarf the impact of the Asian crisis so far," sparking a new round of devaluations and undermining Western stock markets.

Across the Atlantic, the June 1 BusinessWeek magazine featured a series of reports on the worsening Asian situation and published an editorial comment placing blame on the Japanese government, the US Treasury and the IMF.

"Asia is poised on the brink of depression," it declared. "A deadly deflationary spiral has started in Japan and China that must be reversed. Wild inflationary fires are burning in Indonesia. Throughout Asia, economies must be reliquified and companies must be recapitalized to jump-start economic growth. People in the US, Japan, or Europe who think they can dodge this bullet are dreaming. The global economy is at risk."

Underlying such strident warnings is the fear that unless the economic situation is brought under control -- and no one has a plan for doing so -- then the tumultuous events in Indonesia over the past weeks will be followed by no less profound social and political upheavals across Asia, and in the major capitalist countries as well.

See Also:
A Marxist analysis of the Asian meltdown [90k PDF]
To read this file the free Acrobat Reader software is required
Download Acrobat Reader

For the latest analysis and comments by the World Socialist Web Site see:
"The political crisis in Indonesia"

(Wed May 27 1998 23:48 - ID#404246)

I got the name wrong. I finally found my copy and the name is:

The Iron Dream by Norman Spinrad ( Not The Iron Maiden )


(Wed May 27 1998 23:51 - ID#207145)
I firmly believe that the USA is on the verge of a defence buildup. Tis buildup will destroy bonds and revive the fortunes in gold. It is coming.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:55 - ID#411112)
Swiss gold backing of the franc is in there constitution in order for them to sell the

citizens have to vote on this by they dust off this story each time the dow tanks keep me in the busness of conspiracy theorys

(Wed May 27 1998 23:57 - ID#348129)
@Just One Golden Word
F U to the Swiss Government. Your people will kick your asses once you put it to the vote......

(Wed May 27 1998 23:58 - ID#207145)
Defence Buildup, yes
Defence buildup. I am a little surprised you guys haven'tJthe bond market. Peace dividend in reverse.jIMMY CARTER clinton has squandered the peace dividend. Now it goes in reverse, higher intrest rates, higher gold, lower markets. WOW.

(Wed May 27 1998 23:58 - ID#43460)
Gollum, nothing up whose sleeve?
I thought that was Frodo Nine Finger's complaint after a certain person we all know and love but will not name took the gold ring from him one last time?

You know, I've wondered for years where does the money go when that happens? Does it go to the same place as deleted emails? There is a story from history that Tecumseh Sherman retired from the army in the 1850's and moved to California. He became a banker and was doing quite well until he got caught overleveraged and illiquid during the Panic of 1859. His bank failure and need to borrow money from relatives to pay off his debts probably changed the course of history. He could never get bankrolled for a second start and had to rejoin the army to support his wife and children. Needless to say he was a much more credible soldier than banker. IMHO