Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:00 - ID#426220)

Peter, YOUR "Is George S Cole still calling for his gold bull market or has he lost all his money to invest???

You may rest very assured GSC will never lose all his money to invest.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:01 - ID#39857)
Just a thought.
Political action, whow! I got a feeling that maybe some of the
big countries need a fall guy. A scapegoat. Who will that be?
And are economic concerns the sole reson. Sure we have had Indonesia
and SK, but these are merely countries caught uo in the Grand Plan.
Japan staring to voice off on Pakistan. Who are they but a nearly
bankrupt nation. Perpetually nearly bankrupt.What sort of sanctions
will they impose? Maybe just pullback on those missile trades.
Very interesting. The three buddhas have control of the Aussie
market. Candlesticks are a gauge of the psychology of the markets.
Therefore I say we are ferked.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:01 - ID#410114)
The dollar,the Euro,the atomic tests
The US has a history of confiscating the assets of people and countries the US gets mad. The Europeans don't, look at Switzerland. If I was trying to start a new currency, my first act would NOT be to sieze any money that either India or Pakistan had on deposit in my countries banks.

I suspect that part of the reason the G-8 didn't go along with clinton's demand for sanctions is the Euro.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:02 - ID#401460)
Japan record unemployment triggers anger, fear

Thursday May 28, 11:39 pm Eastern Time
By Janet Snyder

TOKYO, May 29 ( Reuters ) - Japan's announcement of its worst unemployment rate since the end of World War Two, rising to a record 4.1 percent in April, triggered anger and trepidation in the ordinary person in the street on Friday.

``Japan as a country is fast losing the loyalty of its people by throwing them to the dogs like this,'' said Yujiro Iyoka, a 26-year-old computer engineer.

``People have relied on their companies for their identities, not just their livelihoods, and now they're being thrown out of work,'' Iyoka said.


(Fri May 29 1998 00:05 - ID#207145)
we can ignore anything but a direct attack.
US military low on parts, weapons. We are not prepared for what is down the pike.This is a jimmy Carter replay. When feasible buy defense stocks, and energy stocks. Energy is a steal now. Could be awhile, but Iran will give us all we can handle. regarding energy, cold weather likely this winter.Hurricane season back to normal. La Nina likely.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:05 - ID#287186)
Gene, et al.{except Mozel} For cold fusion news check this out
Some of these dudes get carried away with graphics! Do NOT click for the CURRENT COLD FUSION TIMES unless you can eat dinner while you are waiting!>
The home page is

(Fri May 29 1998 00:07 - ID#287186)
the long URL is duplicated half way through - just copy paste the front half up to the 2nd http

Oil Tankers do not need insurance - if the US Navy commandeers them and puts a Navy crew on board. Correct me if I am wrong - The Navy can do this anytime they must - by order of the Captain of any Naval Warship - though it would be PC to check with BC or at least an admiral. If times are rough on the high seas or in port - Oil Tankers would need the protection of a Naval escort anyway. So naturally they could put a Naval crew aboard for the protection of the vessel. Could read this either way - the President could order it to sail for China or the USN could sail it into San Francisco Bay.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:08 - ID#410114)
NJ. not only can I think of it. He said that he would give it to the Soviets!!!! He did this during the cold War!!!

Date: Thu May 28 1998 23:02
NJ ( George Bush on China ) ID#20748:
Can you imagine President Reagan saying that? SDI won the cold war and now they are
giving it away to China.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:09 - ID#43349)
Good discussion. If I had to choose between
mild inflation or mild deflation it would be
hard to choose. If I had savings I would be
in favor of deflation. If I was up to my eyebrows
in debt I would prefer inflation.

The problem with hyperinflation is that no one
can spend fast enough and with hyperdeflation
is that no one spends at all.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:10 - ID#206298)
Gollum, Lord of the Rings, thanks for asking my opinion.
S. Korea,Thailand, Pakistan and Russia will all collapes within 6 months to be re-built with new fiat money systems. Gold and the dollar will both rise as we inflate a bit. We ( US ) will have 6% unemployment by the end of the year. 7-8% by the end of 99. And has always been the case, we will start into another up cycle after the recession. What do you think?

(Fri May 29 1998 00:12 - ID#207145)
seasonal low in oil, @nd week in June.
This summer could be a parched one. Hot and dry. This scenario could have direct effect on grains and beans. Maybe even bonds and gold if summer driving season is abnormally high. I love drilling stocks. Good night all.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:15 - ID#207145)
George Bush is a WUSSSSSSS
Never thought he could get elected. New England preppie, Texas wannabe. Good oil man tho.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:18 - ID#316193)
HighRise, Your 00.02, I Would Like to Add...
Japan's unemployment rate would be significantly higher if
calculated by U.S. and European standards. The nation counts
anyone who has worked one hour or more in the month surveyed
as fully employed.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:20 - ID#45173)
Gollum: final post -- Another way to look at hyperinflation is
that currency users no longer accept the values printed on the paper that represents that currency, so the government is constantly printing higher and higher denominations to meet the new, lower expectations of value. Can this happen with the world's reserve currency, the US dollar? What would that mean to the value of other currencies? Of hard assets? Think I'll sleep on that one. Thx for your thoughts. G'nite.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:21 - ID#340302)
@GOLLUM...and if you have mostly hard assets...
...then stagflation will send their values through the roof.

I do not see inflation around the corner because pumping liquidity into an economy does not compel people to buy.

I do not see a pure deflation because there is far too much aggregate purchasing power in America today...and even with a stock market crash, there would still be large vestigial purchasing power. Thus, for example, if clean, safe water fell into shortage in America, there would be millions of individuals with large baskets of dollars to compete on the good in shortage. There would be a sectoral hyperinflation on this commodity independent of aggregate demand for other goods.

We are staring down the barrel of global stagflation...U.S. dollars will be as desirable as they were in Carter years which is to say NOT at all.
Bonds and equities will tank while global demand for precious metals will soar.



(Fri May 29 1998 00:21 - ID#238422)
Did you see "Red Dawn" movie? Brigade of Rus/Cuban warriors
capturing the whole United States, U.S. millitary suddenly
dissappered somewhere but a few brave young people put up
a real good fight...Is this what you mean?

Down with M-16, let's give every GI a good chinese AK47.
You do not need spare parts for those, AK's work reliably
as is...I'm ready to teach guys where the trigger is on
AK-47. We shall overcome...Sounds good?

(Fri May 29 1998 00:23 - ID#206298)
good night all. Im long gold
so I and hope we ( USA FED ) are buying foreign currencies tonight and tomorrow!!

(Fri May 29 1998 00:23 - ID#227168)
Big Players --Little Brains
When Gold Beagle speaks Slumber calls -rest my dear children away before mosquitos bite.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:24 - ID#27341)
Def v Inf, its a debate, not a contest.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:25 - ID#238422)
Never put S.Korea, Pakistan or else on one line with Russia.
It.s just funny...

(Fri May 29 1998 00:29 - ID#401460)
To many BOOMS on one side.

I think God may be angry.

BEIJING, May 29 ( Reuters ) - An earthquake measuring 6.2 on the Richter Scale struck an area of China's western Xinjiang region on Friday...Xinhua said the quake struck at 5.11 a.m................An aftershock measuring 5.5 on the Richter Scale rocked the area 17 minutes later.

CAIRO, May 28 ( Reuters ) - A powerful earthquake rocked Egypt on Thursday sending some Cairo residents running into the streets in panic but there were no immediate reports of casualties. about 9:40 P.M. ( 1840 GMT ) . .... the earthquake measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale was felt in Cairo.

San Juan Batista California 4.4 Quake struck today.

To many bombs going off!; maybe, and all on one side of the globe? Use to be the US would blow one up then the Soviet Union would bang one off on the opposite side of the Globe - they balanced each other; therefore, no problem.

To much Physics, I am going to bed.


(Fri May 29 1998 00:33 - ID#43349)
I think you may be pretty close on unemployment
rates for the US and the renewal of the next cycle.
Six months seems pretty quick to sort out the mess
those other guys are in. That would be by Thanksgiving.

You aren't as pessimistic as the doomsayers nor as
optimistic as the Pollyannas and that's good because
reality tends to split the seam.

I tend to think it all depends on how fast the market
goes down. With a hard crash it will take too long to sort
out all the broken banks and brokers to get going again
by the end of 99. With a slower let down or short term
thing like in 87 things might be back before that.
Gold needs something like a hard crash or good stiff
weakening of the dollar.

Of course, if the past is any measure we are both wrong
and things will go in some entirely unforseen way.

And poor Gollum is no Lord of the Rings. Poor Gollum
couldn't even handle one precious ring.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:35 - ID#401460)

Yes, Japan unemployment is much higher than 4%, they don't count 1/2 of the people who are out of work. Plus in the past, employees just hung around the Company when things were slow, now they are being let go.


(Fri May 29 1998 00:36 - ID#227168)
Anybody ---Who Wrote this ?
Gentlemen, needless to mention we are at the end of the gold's weakest price month ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:39 - ID#286230)
I didn't do it!!!!!

(Fri May 29 1998 00:43 - ID#43349)
I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that
way, after all it did before.

I wouldn't look too much at the current large
aggregrate purchasing power though. Things change.
In the late 20's there was plenty of money
everywhere. The roaring 20's were in the money
just like the roaring 90's but by the 30's
it was all gone ( except for the Rockefellers
and such ) . How do you see it different for us?

(Fri May 29 1998 00:43 - ID#27341)
mutch to think about, 2+2 is three and all that, a stall here and there, look forward to reading more.


(Fri May 29 1998 00:46 - ID#43349)
Me Neither!! I wasn't even here when it happened!

(Fri May 29 1998 00:47 - ID#401460)
Coins, Bombs, & Attorneys.

"Nuclear Bombs are like attorneys, once the other guy uses his, you have to use yours and all do is F+++ everything up." Danny Devito

Clinton will take positive steps now, he will propose funding for indevidual home bomb shelters - which will be stocked by Tyson Foods.

How long do Eagles stay radioactive - I don't care if they glow a little, I just don't want them to burn my hand or melt in my pocket. With my luck they will have a nuclear composition shift and will become LEAD.


(Fri May 29 1998 00:49 - ID#316193)
You are in construction, high rise, low rise, whatever. Have
you an opinion about REITs? Investments in U.S. shopping
centers and similar. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

(Fri May 29 1998 00:58 - ID#227168)
Nobody Knows --I still love Toronto
I have 10,000 Lawyers ---The Truth will come ---Let those bandits eat bread -I still love that Jamaican word Artist ---Ug ug Good Night All

(Fri May 29 1998 01:00 - ID#410215)
..... farfel .....

I will take your points in no particular order:

First you wrote: "So, for example, if it is thought that Russia's economic collapse is bad for Plat/Palladium prices, then down they will FALL ( and so far, my assertion that enraged you so greatly from two days ago is proven correct...yours is not ) "

This is why I say you know nothing of these markets. You perception of what is cause and effect is distorted where PGMs are concerned. That PGMs fell had nothing to do with the recent economic woes of Russia. Ask any trader. Out of 100, 99 will tell you this is so. The last one is short palladium so he doesnt count. Ive gone into some detail about exactly why these metals are falling, yet we hear no reasons from you.

If Russia collapses economically, who will dig the metal they will sell to raise cash? JM and Engelhard both report they believe the stockpiles to be "low". Many traders I know say nonexistent. Even if they have some to sell, without continued production this would soon dry up and prices would rise, yes?

Enraged? this is hyperbole. I was quite polite. Persistent in my search for answers; which I have yet to receive from you, but VERY polite.

I am worried about your paper investments in gold equities. There may be a "new paradigm". The stocks are just paper, after all.

As for specialties, a neurosurgeon ( PGMs ) is quite capable of lancing a boil ( gold ) , or even setting a broken leg ( silver ) , yes?

You also wrote: "Ultimately, a commodity price moves either up or down based on the preponderance of buyers or sellers."

This would seem to undermine your self styled "ideological gold long" philosophy if indeedy the market is subject to the whims of buyers and sellers. Would not a worldwide economic collapse ( pardon me if I am overstating your call for doom, but you will agree that you do not have rosy prospects for the future ) . If nobody has currency worth anything, and everybody but gold owners are broke, where are the buyers of gold going to get the capital or goods with which to offer exchange to make this gold valuable?

As for amount of CB gold holdings, the figure is actually much closer to 37,000 tones. Source: Leonard Kaplan 20 year international gold trader for Imperial Bank. You have seen him quoted frequently in the Barons, WSJ, and Reuters wires we all post hereabouts. So he is quoted more in these August publications than you or I, yes? He is an interesting guy, but his ties are loud. We have had cocktails, but I will not listen to his rantings when we have been drinking. We find discussing the odds on Craps much more entertaining.

I am surprised you do not know this market better. You can find these figures through other sources also, some have even been posted on this very page. That you would make "gold reports" and not know CB holdings is very interesting. This a very fundamental piece of information. By you own words, you are making these reports and all your gold decisions not knowing this one basic number, which any broker plebe can recite to the ounce after the second day of schooling.

On what do you base your assertions if you dont have the initial numbers? This is the second conversation in a row you and I have had in which you were unaware of even the most basic component of the trade: supply/demand. Or in your words, "Ultimately, a commodity price moves either up or down based on the preponderance of buyers or sellers."

Please quote me correctly. When I spoke of perception, I spoke of palladium only. Capiche?

Every year more laws are passed requiring tougher emission standards. This year 10% of all new cars in China must have a catalytic converter. Next year 25%. Use is increasing according to the two refiners responsible for refining 99% of all PGMs on earth.

You seem to insist that the amount of gold in the world is related to the amount of currency in the world, as if all this currency MUST be backed by gold or it is worthless. Although history PROVES you wrong at every turn. Soooo, you pay your mortgage on your beautiful home with bogus bucks, should you be arrested? Lets say that there are three piles: All the currency in the world, all the gold in the world, or all the food in the world? Ill choose the third and watch the rich and the shiny getting thinner and thinner.

You wrote: "Gold is a global financial reserve"

Where? Which globe? Reserves of what? Please define these terms. You maintain that worldwide currencies vastly outweigh global gold reserves, so how is gold a financial reserve? This is a particularly egregious self contradiction, yes?

And finally, ( the coupe de grace ) and you simply need to look at any chart to see this is true:

When there is significant economic uneasiness, and gold goes up as a result, it gives platinum a short term kick in the rear. Gold goes up $50 on economic bad news, platinum goes up $100. Look at a couple of charts. This is the history. I know, I know.. just cause it happened before doesnt mean it will happen again. But I would rather take something proven true than bet it all on something that has never happened, i.e. your global meltdown scenario.

Platinum offers higher returns in economic good times. Platinum will outperform gold in the near term ( the first couple months ) after the arrival of bad economic news. The only thing I dont like is a stagnant market, cant trade it. Gold has spent more time going nowhere than any other metal.

It would seem the breadth of mystery in these markets confounds you into making assertions that are based on personal opinion yet refuted by fact and figures, supplied by common and reputable sources. You notice I always quote sources of info. You quote your feelings, backed up by no numbers, and on the word of a guy at a cocktail party. This you have shown us quite clearly. Keep trying though, took me awhile to learn this stuff too. Chin up.



I know, I wouldnt want to argue with me either.


(Fri May 29 1998 01:16 - ID#340302)
@RJ...oh, this is fun...
RJ wrote:

Your last post removes all doubt that you do not know these markets. Perception plays Zero role in palladium. Most people dont even know what it is.

F* says:

So, we have a market in which perception plays no role.

Then how is it a market?

The coherent answer to this question determines whether or not a word of your most recent, typically, convoluted and verbose post makes any sense.

Answer the question rather than making your usual, digressive attacks on the intrinsic of gold.

If perception does not matter, then how do we have a Palladium market?



(Fri May 29 1998 01:19 - ID#401460)

Funny you should ask; I transferred funds into a Real Estate Fund today. As Bond interest rates come down they loose value - a contrarian play, like Gold. The REIT funds react differently, I don't really understand why, 3 Morgan Stanley Real Estate Funds went up in unit value and 1 went down today. Mine is in an annuity type situation, it went down; therefore, I got more units for the buck .

The important thing to remember, in general, is that REITs have locked in at low rates; therefore, as interest rates rise, those properties are more profitable than new ones being financed at higher rates.

After saying all this I personally have seen, in 70s and the 80s, many REIT developers bite the dust. What happens is they are using one project to finance another and if anything disturbs the process, the house of cards falls.

I have always had to deal with inflation, if this is a major deflationary situation - I may have a problem. REITs, Gold, Oil and Hard Assets are all flat or falling.

I personally feel that we are on the inflationary side of the Pond. Just like Germany in 37?


(Fri May 29 1998 01:22 - ID#401460)


. As Bond interest rates come down, REIT funds, unit values loose value.


(Fri May 29 1998 01:25 - ID#288240)
PPT Theory
I have a theory I'd like to share with you regarding some indicators I've noticed. I think that the PPT has developed their manipulation schemes to a science. I also believe that their massive shorting of commodities is not limited to precious metals.

Has anyone noticed how PMs now seem to be positively correlated to stock prices and equity fluctuations? I think the PPT has learned through trial and error that the primary indicator of inflation has been commodities. What is to stop the Feds from simply shorting the hell out of any commodity which starts to rise in price?

Inflation never went away. They simply got very adept at suppressing the indicators of infation. We had an identical reaction in PMs last October.

This is just harebrained enough to interest our top policy makers in Washington. I think someone got wise to the fact that the ups and downs of the business cycle were signaled by commodities prices and Fed reports such as CPI.

This is akin to having an illness and taking enough medication to suppress the symtoms. Of course it requires more and more medication as time goes by but once you embark down this road there is no turning back.

Someone please tell me I'm wrong and why.

(Fri May 29 1998 01:33 - ID#20137)
Would someone please explain what is going on with the copper stocks?
Who is taking all these TONS and what are theydoing with them and ... WHY???

Dare I mention that silver stocks are still dropping ... or they may rush in some more supplies ( gag ) .

Arden, the gold action is very dynamic. I think they are getting ready for more deliveries of the eligible. I suspect a fair number of the april contracts are asking for their bullion and as Allen suspected they need to keep a fractional reserve. Maybe the reserve must be at or around 130,000 ounces at least. Does ANYONE have data for one, two and fives years ago... at least just a days worth so we can compare comex's old supply levels.

Finally 8,000,000 ounces of paper gold traded yesterday and 9,000,000 ounces of paper gold traded today. All that paper trade is based on a base of eligible reserves of 249,463 ounces ( 3.1%, 2.77% ) and total reserves of 1,077,321 ounces ( 13.46%, 11.97% ) . A paper game with little relationship on supply and demand, more a game of poker where the chips are leverage coupons.

Goodnight all


Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 87,217 0 935 -935 86,282

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 37,347,768
-249,566 0 53,897,762
-249,566 0 91,245,530

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

801,469 26,389 0 26,389 0 827,858
149,568 99,895 0 99,895 0 249,463
951,037 126,284 0 126,284 1 1,077,321


Gold 90,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 13,000

(Fri May 29 1998 01:38 - ID#340302)
@RJ...I'm still waiting....
...if perception does not matter, then why is there such a thing as a Palladium market?



(Fri May 29 1998 01:42 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

To clean the air you and your beautiful wife breath.

You really want to keep this up?

You are loosing every single point.

You saw the reviews of our last debate.

I got the facts

You gotta' counter with facts, not feelings


(Fri May 29 1998 01:43 - ID#340302)
@A.GOOSE...sir, you are as sharp as ever....
...taking delivery on gold is about to become the latest, hottest fashion in America.

I know Disney & LGB hate when I say this but...




(Fri May 29 1998 01:46 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

I have asked you 20 or thirty questions that you have still not answered. You prefer to change the subject rather than deal with the facts. In a thousand words, you seize on one small point, and try to bully me. So I answered your question.

Now can you answer the 20 or 30 of mine?

Its only fair


(Fri May 29 1998 01:46 - ID#340302)
@ALL...I'm still waiting ...
...for RJ to explain:

If perception does NOT matter, then how can there be a Palladium market?

Why is he avoiding the most fundamental assertion he has made in favor of Palladium's inexorable rise?

Instead, he makes his usual digressive attack on asset that most KITCOITES understand has great value.



(Fri May 29 1998 01:48 - ID#372400)
Gold will go to -$10
Chronicles of Gold Demise

( Freestyle translation from unknown verses of Nostradamus by Thomas the
Doubting )

Gold bugs on full margin long -- no one has money to buy gold or silver.

The Dutch, after one-two-many smoke, mistake Gold for Copper and sell
several tons at the price of Copper.
Comex is paralized -- gold bugs get a margin call -- they have to sell.
Gold drops to $200.
CB's decide -- they don't need something which drops for 20 years to 25%
of initial price -- they sell all they have.
Gold drops to $100
Gold mining companies try to save the day by an organized shortsqueze.
This attempt fails because of unexpected class action lawsuit. This is
an account of it in "Grudge Times" daily, June 1,1999:
"All states in the name of the people claim that PM mining companies
created an addiction in some people
which caused them to spend all money on something worthless, buy more
guns than they can carry, hoard uneatable food and gather secretly to
read an obscure 200 years old piece of paper. The same addiction is
characterized by a phobia towards any paper painted in green. Plaintiffs
say that treatment of the people who suffer from this dillusion have
costed dearly to MediCare and local prisons -- and ask the jury to
assess punitive damages in the amount of 100 billion dollars. Jury is
not quite convinced.
The plaintiff lawyers make a demonstration of how dangerous the
dillusion is by showing the proclamation written by
an internet conspiracy group known as HitCo which claims that the price
of gold less than $1000 is a conspiracy by Federal Reserve board and
board of directors of ElyLili. Memebers of the group claim that everyone
is longing to buy 10 gold coins but this natural desire is suppressed by
Prozac added to the tap water ( Feds are printing money to pay for the
tonns of Prozac used for this purpose ) . After 10 minutes of
deliberations jury found gold mining companies guilty on all counts.
CEO's and stockholders of mining companies flood the mines and drown

Mining gold and silver is prohibited. President creates a new post "Gold

Tabloids and TV run ads: "Do YOU have short positions in PM in your

Gold drops to $50.

Rural post offices are full of protesters -- mostly commodities traders
and retired soldiers.
"Demand exceeds supply. Go Gold!" -- they chant. Post-office workers
make fun of them.

Duke Rockishield published interview with the remarkable revalation:
"Nobody needs gold." He commited suicide two days later.

People in India decide that something that costs $50 per oz is not
precious at all. They switch from gold to plutonium.
Young brides wear plutonium jewelry. Pakistan responded with a switch to
uranium rings and chaines.
No more problems with food in SE Asia.
No more any demand for gold and silver.

Remaining owners of PM use them to make containers for red wheat, salt,
sugar and other unhealthy food.
Local HMO threaten to drop medical insuarance for any one using PM for
food containers. Owners of PM give up.
Gold and silver are dumped to city garbage dumps -- but enviromentalists
claim that gold and silver are worse than plastic
-- because thay are never destroyed in soil -- and pass legislation
requiring EPA disposal fees of $10/oz for gold and $5/oz for silver.

Best seller of the year is "4000 years of Metal Mania -- ultimate
destruction of wealth".

(Fri May 29 1998 01:48 - ID#340302)
@RJ...I am only asking one single little question...
...and it is the linchpin of your entire thesis regarding Palladium's inexorable rise?

If perception does NOT matter, then why is there a Palladium market?



(Fri May 29 1998 01:49 - ID#401460)

I think this has actually been reported that they are manipulating the markets. I can't remember the name of the individual who recommended that they do this; but it is true. If I had time I would look for the info for you - maybe tomorrow. I am to tired right now, and I am making to many mis..stakes.

I have watched the CRB run dead level when Gold is surging because Oil for some strange reason was falling - and of course we have seen the opposite happen.

They have been playing with the employment numbers also - unemployment claims are always up the week before the Fed meets.

Same Ole, Same Ole,

Thanks all, for the thoughts and info.


(Fri May 29 1998 01:51 - ID#228128)
Veneroso mentions golden-eagle site
Vronsky: The Veneroso associates SI thread material posted laste evening here on Kitco mentioned a large number of hits by a European CB on your site. Can you confirm and elaborate?

(Fri May 29 1998 01:53 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Perhaps you could address some of the other questions, yes?

Yale would have equipped you well to handle these simple queries.

Lets try this one again:

How come you make "reports" on gold and, by your own words, don't even know how much gold CBs hold? This would seem a more salient and fundamental question. I'll talk you ears off on palladium, I'm pretty good at PGMs, but I offer facts, I quote sources, and I name names. You make "reports" and don't know the facts. Why?

Ooops, another question.


(Fri May 29 1998 01:55 - ID#340302) single little question...
...and Mr. RJ will not answer. All I want is a little education concerning a market I do NOT trade.


Instead, he offers another avalanche of his past attacks on gold's intrinsic value. Yawn....




(Fri May 29 1998 01:59 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

Why, when trapped and proven wrong by your very own words, do you bully and push and answer questions with questions? And avoid the many I have posed?

If you do not know, please tell. We will end this now.

If you would like to continue this probe into the depths of your mistakes and misunderstandings, we can do that too. But let's finish old business. I would be happy to post the questions without the verbosity you disdain, but still seem to match word for word.

Lets explore this in greater depth, yes?


(Fri May 29 1998 02:00 - ID#340302) know what I think...
...if perception really does NOT matter in the Palladium market, then there really is no market. If everybody shares the same point of view ( that it is going UP ) , then there will be NO sellers. In which case, at any moment, the entire market just might shut down ( lack of liquidity maybe ) .

God...imagine the huge losses traders would incur on both sides of the fence!



(Fri May 29 1998 02:04 - ID#340302)
@RJ...there is no old business between you and me...
...except that some time ago, I rankled you to no end after quoting your personal declaration of pride in being a whore in the markets.

To this day, I do not understand why my quoting a declaration out of your own mouth angers you so.

Now, could you answer my question regarding the linchpin of your theory behind Palladium's inevitable meteoric rise?

If perception does NOT matter, then why is there a Palladium market?



(Fri May 29 1998 02:10 - ID#410215)
..... farfel .....

Your last really made me laugh.

I am the interrogator, remember?

Bullying me and shouting serve to underscore you obvious lack of fundamental knowledge.

Did you not see the reviews?

You are WAY behind on points

Perhaps a politician can get away with these games, but the collected lot here are a sharper bunch.

I think the opinion is running about 20 to 1 against you on this matter. Each post you make digs you deeper. Why are you doing this? You do not know this market. You do not know it. You dont. Accept it, there are some things I dont know but I cant remember them.

I would not dictate physics to JTF, nor would I coach Sheller on astrology, yet you will hold forth with mistake after mistake and pretend they did not happen. Either we continue on in a non bullying and informational tone, and address the facts already stated, or I will revert to cut and paste. We will dissect in excruciating detail. I expect anybody to use the same means on me. I am my own biggest fan, I love to read my stuff over, and over, and over, and over..



You dont want this.

silver plate
(Fri May 29 1998 02:11 - ID#234253)
farfel & RJ
Why don't you two kids stop playing "dictionary" and post something intelligent and of benefit to all? If you both need intellectual stimulation try going to law school and then you can duel with the judges and other big brains.

(Fri May 29 1998 02:14 - ID#240266)
I usually trade based on TA but I buy Platinum and Silver
on the fundamentals.The crowd will sort itself out in the fullness
of time.All things are relative;some will lose relative value and
others will gain relative value.My livingroom could contain all
known,and propably unknown,Platinum reserves extant in the world today.
Cheers to all ...and happy trading!

(Fri May 29 1998 02:15 - ID#340302)
@SILVER PLATE...I am simply trying to get some info... a layman interested in the Palladium market?

I am rather curious why he will not answer my question...and where is his usual "AMEN" choir, ready and willing to assault me with verbal abuse?

Probably upset over following his advice re: PDG's these past few days.



(Fri May 29 1998 02:16 - ID#340302)
@SILVER PLATE...excuse me, that's PGMS....
...writing just a little too fast.



(Fri May 29 1998 02:16 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri May 29 1998 01:43
farfel ( @A.GOOSE...sir, you are as sharp as ever.... ) ID#340302:
...taking delivery on gold is about to become the latest, hottest fashion in America.


Thanks farfel. I look forward to that coming fashion. How nice it will be to finally have people ( other that kitco posters ) talking about the wonders of GOLD and its incredible value. Yes, now I go to dream the golden dreams of the coming days of which you speak.


(Fri May 29 1998 02:20 - ID#340302)
@RJ...hurry up with your cut and paste...
...I have to go to bed soon.

However, maybe you could answer my question about Palladium?



(Fri May 29 1998 02:25 - ID#257148)
seconds away, round six....
Thomas Great Speach! It came as a welcome respite between round 4 and five of the great PGM mismatch. Anyway, got to go, look like they're at it again.


I'd like to hear from anyone who may wish to sell a 1 oz Palladium Isle of Man coin dated 1987 commemorating the America's cup.. I posted this on K2, there was no reply then K2 got the ziva bug and now I feel nauseaous.

Cant spell, why should I?

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 02:27 - ID#24387)
Russia's got it made ..
For Oris
It is well known that Russia is the world's richest
One glaring example is that the miners there do not
even have TO BE PAID. They dont need the money. They
work only to participate in the comeraderie of the
workplace .. the lure of the mine .. the mystique of
After a long day's fascination at the underground
rock face, they go home to vodka, pickles, and
Shastakovitch on the HiFi.. A full life.

(Fri May 29 1998 02:30 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

There was not enough palladium on the market to meet demand.

Period. Ask anybody. There was no perception problem

They were quite sure the warehouses were empty

They could tell by all the floor space they could see.

The same type of floor space you find of endless significance in COMEX

There was no metal

Will you no deny this is so?

Every singe credible source on Earth said that there was no metal.

Should we believe there was metal because YOU say so?

OK, so I have answered your question a second time, you have yet to even make a stab at any of mine.

There is no old business between us. I told you I would feel free to politely comment on your posts. What rankled me was your declaration that PGMs are dead ( nails and coffins and all ) . That you come here and make this grand statement and then have not one shred of evidence, except what you feel must be so and a guy at a cocktail party, and are then questioned about your statements is the natural course of events around here. That is the purpose of the place.

When you posted you obituary, I immediately went about to set it right. I then even told you I would use recent JM statistics and that this was a trap, I had all the info lined up. After reading that, you choose to dive into my pond anyway. Now that I would like to swim around awhile, you complain that it is getting kinda' cold and you hear your mother calling.

You started this debate with your declaration that PGMs are dead. Since you refuse to admit you do not know what you are talking about, and then try to bully me, I will set about to prove your mistakes. Politely, of course. This will stop when you have answered my questions, you admit you do not know, or you run away.

You should be in entire agreement with this after your quintuple insistence that I answer your non sequitur perception question. One as eager for answers as you should be as eager to give you own.


(Fri May 29 1998 02:30 - ID#340302)
@RJ...OK, I've got an early morning tomorrow....
...just post your stuff in a terse concise fashion because we are using up too much bandwidth here.

In case you forgot, my question is:

If perception does NOT matter, then how can there be a Palladium market?



(Fri May 29 1998 02:33 - ID#330209)
Am I seeing a double bottom here or am i still technically challenged. Off to consult the manual.

(Fri May 29 1998 02:33 - ID#287186)
Thomas - you hit it!
Da dum NUTS got da culer confused!
Dey is gittin' sold copper by dem crooked brokers.
Dey tink it is GOLD!
Der is fool's GOLD and der is FOOL's GOLD!
{sorry guys - I just came over da pass from K2}

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 02:35 - ID#24387)
Forgive me Comrade Dmitri
for Oris ..
"Shasta" = "Shosta"
PS .. Do you believe cold fusion is
real or just an easily reproduced
laboratory error??

(Fri May 29 1998 02:36 - ID#372400)
It looked like double bottom on that graph at 97/10, is it not?

(Fri May 29 1998 02:36 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

We shall move on to cut and paste then, yes?

And therein we find not only obvious mistakes about the PGM market

But gold and silver as well. Face it these markets are not your bag.

Will you admit you do not know what you are talking about?

Or shall we set about proving it in minute detail?

In the great PGM debate, I am batting 1000

You have yet to even swing at the ball.

Facts and figures, by credible sources

Not farfel feelings.


John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 02:46 - ID#24387)
I declare this match a draw..
Analysis of fight..
RJ's accurate but repetitive Rat tat tat
was offset by farfel ( real deal ) burger's
mad ravings. RJ lacks killer instinct.
Unable to put his man away.
"Real Deal" lacking in all departments.
Another inconclusive match..

(Fri May 29 1998 02:48 - ID#410215)
..... Silver Plate .....

Feel free to go back over the last couple days and read my posts. They are filled with incredibly useful facts and little known details of the PGM markets. All sources identified and all information less than 10 days old. As far as information is concerned on these pages, it doesn't get much better. Read the posts, very good info there. All offered during the course of this debate.

Farfel runs from these facts, changes the subject reflexively and continues to challenge me again and again regarding PGMs. Yet he offers not ONE single fact to back up his story, except a guy at a cocktail party. Where is the merit in that? Next, I suspect he will claim public service by cleverly drawing out of me all that useful information.

Perhaps you should address you post to farfal alone. Ill stick to clearly defined facts from stated sources. Judging by the many e-mails, phone calls made to me over the last couple of days, and the public pronouncements here, that is what people are looking for on these pages.

Or I could just shut up completely

Not my loss


(Fri May 29 1998 02:51 - ID#338228)
The reason I posted the Yahoo PM report was not to determine it's
reliability, ( but thanks for your response ) but rather it's possible impact on the PM market.

I have been conducting consumer research studies for the past 16 years and have found that top level executives are still mystified when consumers do not react the way they would expect them to -- particularly when it comes to product pricing. Here consumers' perceptions truly are reality regardless of actual pricing reality. Yet, even when shown "valid" research results regarding consumers' perceptions ( backed up by actual sales reports I might add ) I still hear these executives saying, but, we "are" the lowest priced in town -- why do they think otherwise? You can't be the highest priced in town for 10 years, lower your prices and think consumers' perceptions will change overnight. I can't tell you the millions of dollars that have been wasted in underestimating consumers' perceptions.

As with consumer buying behavior, perceptions do play a role in investment psychology... Yes indeedy....but that's what makes it all so exciting, yes? I myself could do with just a little less excitement.

Keep providing your predictions on the PM markets...I appreciate opinions on both sides of the coin. Please, no cut and paste.

(Fri May 29 1998 02:56 - ID#284255)
Now I have to scroll past twice as much as before.
This is an endless tirade and proves moot all.

We all know you both have excellent reasoning powers.....
And you both can type very fast...........

But please............................

Why don't you engege in a friendly ICQ chat................................

(Fri May 29 1998 02:58 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

I promised to be polite........

Although his response to my offer of piece awhile back was one of the most insulting pieces of writing ever addressed to me. And he was entirely unaware. He probably thinks he was way magnanimous.

I took the liberty of showing my offer of piece to my sister ( a psychologist ) , as well as farfels response; the word pathological was raised. I did not say this. This is the opinion of a qualified professional.

Had another guy try to bully me recently and I am not in the mood for crap,

So for my first cut and paste I will repost those together, mine and his. Perhaps farfel would even show this post I will make to his beautiful wife, or one of his cocktail buddies. Every human on this planet besides farfel will see how shallow and insulting his response to me was. Yes, we will start there.


(Fri May 29 1998 03:00 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
REQUIRED READING If you haven't read it yet, pick-up the latest Business Week with the AVID CHAT local favorite Abbey Cohen on the cover.. It really says alot. The simple fact that A. Cohen is up for partnership at Golden Sachs the most prized thing on Wall Street is a guareentee that this market will remain a BULL until Oct 98 when partnerships are awarded. Since Cohen is the most influencial stategist on Wall street and it has been said that when she turns bearish the market will go down max 4 days running. You can be assured it won't happen before Oct 98.. Take the time and read the article. She has CLOUT..

(Fri May 29 1998 03:04 - ID#340302)
@RJ...even if I do NOT know what I am talking about...
...that is what makes a market, my son.

Those that have better insight...and those that don't. One get's the higher price, the other gets the lower price. One is advantaged, the other is disadvantaged.

You must learn to respect the validity of the opposing opinion. Now you may not appreciate the methodology used to reach the opposing opinion. However, at some point, you must accept that the entire world does not necessarily subscribe to RJ's view on how the world turns.

And guess what...they never will!

You should be thankful...that's what makes a market.

And if all the people in the market are as ignorant as you believe me to be, well, then be happy! Embrace us!

After all, you will become a very rich man on the basis of our foolish errors, right? Then, once you are rich, then you can surround yourself with sycophants and phonies who will eagerly proclaim you to be the wisest man in the world. Heaven, right?

In conclusion ( and I really must run ) , I have stated you remind me of myself as a younger man. Reason: because as a younger man, I would never cease an argument until the opponent validated my "correctness."
Now, sometimes, I am still guilty of lapsing into this younger self...and that's unfortunate. I fight against it.

However, today, I am less concerned about always being right. My ego no longer rests on that. It rests on the foundation of good relationships and building people up. People find me much more appealing and in general I am much happier.

Anyway, that's that.

Go ahead and cut and paste away. Show everybody how great you are and how stupid I am. Enjoy yourself.



John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 03:12 - ID#24387)
Belize ??
For Mozel ..
You would be nuts to go to Belize.
First you should put all dough in a offshore trust ..
based Isle of Man, Jersey, Bahamas ... whatever .. THEN
you pick a place that does not try to tax overseas
income. RSA was like that but is now revising law.
BUT it still does not tax Dividend income nor capital
gains. Despite its excellent infrastucture, it will
become less good than it has been. However if you are
here less than 6 months a year .. there will be no
problem at all .. ever.
Andorra is excellent .. no tax .. good infrastucture..
still cheap .. 3 hour drive to Barcelona .. same to
Toulouse . Summers are best in Europe because of
altitude .. Winter cold but good skiing. I keep my
house there. Only problem is you may miss speaking
Cyprus is good .. pay a nominal 10 % tax on money you
bring in to live. Problem is chance of war Turkey/Greece.
But Wine Dark Aegean is worth the risk
Others .. Malta may be good. Jersey too expensive.
Isle of Man ok for trusts .. weather too lousy for
If I left here. I would either return to Andorra, or
try Cyprus .. Ive been there before.

(Fri May 29 1998 03:13 - ID#410215)
..... Not I .....

Sharefin -

This debate is filled with tactical information on the hottest and most volatile market today and none of it came from farfel. An impending event, expected within weeks, seems to me to have some priority over endless and repetitive debates on guns, YK2, ANOTHER, BIS, or when the global meltdown will happen. This PGM ride will be over long before any of those others come into play. My posts are filled with info. If you are concerned about bandwidth, perhaps an info content per line of type assessment could be made, and the one with the hollowest argument should be the recipient of calls to desist. I have received better than 20 e-mails and phone calls thanking me for this recent information in the last 2 days. So it would seem many here are very interested in this information.

Farfel has offered zero information. Just empty challenges to me. I would contend that if bandwidth were rationed, and it was farfel or me that would fit on this page, the vote would be for me. If such a vote were taken and I came up short, I would happily leave this place. I start getting pissed when I could be talking about useful things and somebody, who has proven he does not know even the basics ( remember the short squeeze ) , is constantly huffing and puffing because he likes the sound of his own voice. His arguments are bereft, the are riddled with the most stupid mistakes, and I will post them. I told him to let it go. He cant do it, he has to have the last word. The fun thing about it is he sinks himself, I just have to pay attention.

You really think I type fast?


(Fri May 29 1998 03:20 - ID#410215)
..... farfel .....

I don't care how mighty the opinion, it is not greater than fact.

Perhaps you have the opinion the the sky is pink

Should we all agree absent reason?

You do not offer reason, you offer feelings.

That is fine, buy why do you challange me when you are so obviuosly in over your head?

Farfels opinions and mine matter zero when faced with facts.

Mine agree with facts.

Yours do not

And that's a fact


Now perhaps we could get to the bottom of your assertions

I truly want to explore the depths of you knowledge.

You have seen this before, it is ugly

Why do you court it?

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 03:25 - ID#24387)
Cornerman speaks..
RJ ..
Were I you .. I would not show Farfel's
postings to anyone.. I would surely not
print them out.
You should not be offended or hurt or
insulted by F* .. It's not possible ..
F* is OK but you cannot ENGAGE him ..
Discussions with him can be FUN if you're
in the mood .. but they're not SERIOUS...
Meanwhile .. PM prices are falling in
a heap .. even the pgms .. My soothsayer
son was right .. He called 210 on the CRB
when it was 225. All I can say is
GOOD GENES. He doesnt like ANYTHING as
best I can figure ( although he must be
looking at silver at this price )
I was tempted to take Ag calls .. but
was to lazy to ACT .. Laziness can be
useful sometimes.

(Fri May 29 1998 03:27 - ID#410215)
..... Hypocricy .....

Farfel wrote:

"However, at some point, you must accept that the entire world does not necessarily subscribe to RJ's view on how the world turns."

Cut and paste number two will offer at least five examples of farfel bashing anybody who does not agree with him, and the supreme condescending intolerance he has of all that does not originate from his own mouth.

It will show the complete and total hypocrisy of the above quote.

I love it when a guy says one thing, and I can prove he said another.

Why do people start this?

(Fri May 29 1998 03:33 - ID#284255)
Don't stop posting your info.
Your knowledge is profound and so it should be.
Just stop dirrecting it where you know you will get a retaliatry attack.
It's wasted there.
Like beating ones head against a wall to relieve the headache.

I'm sure if you posted those comments at me you would get a totally different response.
And we would both still have our different opinions.

I like your comments here:
Date: Thu May 28 1998 02:16
RJ .. "Now that THAT is said .

Thank you for letting me run rabid in your neighborhood for a spell. I apologize about all the space this has taken but the cause can be clearly seen. I will waste zero more time with this. I am content now to smile in amusement at this little fellow's impotent ploys.

Enjoy Him. "

Should be putting all these words into "El Nino 99"
What cha reckon?

Kudos to the Kauri.

(Fri May 29 1998 03:35 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel Say's .....

"And if all the people in the market are as ignorant as you believe me to be"

No not all. You.

This will be painful, for I will not only show how your knowledge falls short

But your worth as a person

Please read carefully the re-posts I will make on my offer of peace and your reply.

You should even show them both to a shrink.

Your response was that of a shallow and hateful man

You do not see, but everybody else does.

Do not compare yourself to me

I would hate living in your brain

Too many bars, too dark.

Thank You

(Fri May 29 1998 03:36 - ID#410215)
..... Nicky .....

You got a point, mate.

(Fri May 29 1998 03:39 - ID#252391)
To RJ and Goose
First, to RJ - am I to take it thorugh all the noise that you are bullish Platinum and Palladium or just Plat.

Goose, it seems to me the gold stocks are rising, having just passed 1 million oz. Eligible I know are the more important of the two.

To all: looks like Friday could be interesting in silver. Running the $5 stops Stocks don't seem to matter a twit to this market.

(Fri May 29 1998 04:01 - ID#273227)
What a depressing article Armstrong wrote on silver. Wasn't this guy making alot of noise just before Buffet made his silver announcement?

The Journal said that Buffet is speaking at Microsoft's "fireside chat" during the CEO's summit. Does anyone think he will be mentioning silver?

RJ - Throughout all your posts today, I think I read you were going on a cruise the first week of June? Isn't this just after first notice? Seems like a funny time to take a vacation to me. You are still expecting a $50-$100 rise in platinum?

(Fri May 29 1998 04:04 - ID#266105)
@the Mad Hatter in a soapbox derby

Gold no va.

Plat no va.

Silv no va.

How's that go, sell into strength, buy on weakness.

(Fri May 29 1998 04:24 - ID#252391)
To Kuston
Seems RJ may have already set sail, at least off to dreamland, noticably without giving us a firm answer or perdiction as to his targets on PT. His jossel with Farfel probably wore him out.

PD and PT acting a little better at this particular juncture with Zurich about to or already having weighed in.

Seems Buffett better do some talking up on Silver or he'll be in the red like thee too many of the rest of us.

I'd like to talk to the big shorts - what do they know?? Why would they be so aggressive if supplies were in fact so short.rt

(Fri May 29 1998 04:30 - ID#432148)
Beat goes on
Gold down US$.80, silver off 11.5 cents. Somehow does not "feel" like a bottom to me, so maybe we are at least approaching it? Interesting comments here:

(Fri May 29 1998 04:57 - ID#284255)
This email chatter goes with that article:
Surfs Up, It is hard to comment on insane behavior, and the market is totally wacko. However, under every bubble, there has to be a scintilla of truth. They require either growing earnings, declining interest rates, rapidly increasing top lines, trade surpluses, real productivity growth etc. All of these factors are at or near recession levels, not bubble levels, so it is just a matter of investors opening their eyes. So far, with so many technicians and astrologists looking at things that do not matter, the market has been able to rally after any drop. But I think we go down triple digits, then quadruple digits one day soon, and the dream is over.

Only one point?
I was hoping for a couple.

I'll have to back and reread.

What do you think of the threat of Russia having to dump their stockpiles?
That PEI article hits a nerve there.
I'm a PM bear due to real assets being sold to cover one's debts.
And that story could fit the bill.

The implications of it are immense.

If we were to get a fiat collapse
And many countries followed suit
We could well see gold drop much much lower.

If the derivatives markets went to pieces
Much buying power will vanish.
You could end up with it being sold into the ground
As one country after another tries to raise capital.

And that's a scary thought.

(Fri May 29 1998 05:02 - ID#412286)
ARMSTRONG is right
We have to be looking for 3 buck silver again and fast. The pressure is relentless. What we dont understand and are not told is the depth of the recession/depression now gripping the world. Look for down side surprises in commodities until the USD starts to collapse. When this occurs there will be a sudden and dramatic shocking rise in commodity prices that will kill the shorts.

(Fri May 29 1998 05:02 - ID#228128)
PM quotes
London gold: 292.40, London Silver 4.91

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 05:09 - ID#24387)
Proverbs wont help ...
for 2bro2b ..
Weakness aint over yet.
They also say .. "cut your losses ..
let profits run"
then there's "bird in the hand .. ", and
" a rolling stone .."
I can go on and on..
I will buy Harmony back at 3.5 Max .. you watch..

(Fri May 29 1998 05:14 - ID#252391)
To Goldbug23 and ROR
Very good article you recommended Goldbug. Fits in with ROR"s quote of Armstrong who I guess is saying we are going to collapse into the 3s for silver. The dpression recession may in fact be bigger than we think. These relentless bears in the precious metal markets seem to know something. These last few weeks would give considerable credence to the theroy that were are headed sharply lower in commodities, yet, but when a dollar turns occurs, yes I could see quite a rally.

Sad news is looks like the financial world as we enjoyed it a year ago, making money just about everywhere but in the metals, is changing, has changed, will change. The saddest thing of all is that making money in the presious metals isn't getting any easier.

I'm tempted to take a swing at adding to my silver mining shares. Probably grazy given the trend. But $4.85 is where I've thought this stuff would find a base. If I had a futures account open I would buy right here at $.91, since I don't and that's probably why I don't I'll risk 2 credability points that $4.85 is a great buy.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 05:19 - ID#24387)
One Thing Puzzles me ..
to anyone ..
RJ is right .. Gold is potentially in
VAST oversupply .. unless some form of
monetary use is planned or found for it.
YET the other PMs ( even vaunted PL )
are falling in comparison to GOLD.
Why is that .. Perhaps the economic slowdown
is very powerful and creaming commodities.
Fear may be beginning to have a supporting
influence on gold.
PS. WSJ reports that says that speculators
have reversed gold positions and are short
1.7 mill oz where they were long 0.5 mill
2 weeks ago.

(Fri May 29 1998 05:28 - ID#43349)
@John Disney
If the market somehow knew of a coming economic
slowdown, I would expect the metals with more
industrial demand to drop faster than gold

(Fri May 29 1998 05:31 - ID#412286)
Gold like 1987 bond market
In 1987 bonds went relentlessly lower. If the econ was weak they would fall as the dollar would fall, however, if the economy were strong they would fall due to inflation fears ie your no win scenario like gold today ie weak econ no inflation however, strong econ then strong dollar and high confidence so gold falls. In 1987 then came the crash and overnite bonds soared 16% and have never looked back. The same will suddenly happen with gold. However, this bear is in full throttle now. Armstrong predicted a June of 1998 low in gold with a five year bull commencing thereafter with prices rising to the 1000s by 2003 based on monetary chaos. He made this prediction in May of 1997.

(Fri May 29 1998 05:33 - ID#412286)
Silver to the 3s then a bull to 18.

(Fri May 29 1998 05:41 - ID#412286)
We have to remember that the commodity bear is really mainly in dollars. So really it is not a bear but a bear in one currency. There is a silent commodity bull rolling across the world in other currencies. When this wave hits the USD we will have commodity inflation triggered by Armstrong's currency chaos. If you think of what is happening now and with the Euro, you have to believe that Armstrong's prediction over a year ago ( when many here, myself included ) never dreamed of the depths to which gold would fall. Then in Jan of this year Armstrong said silver would collapse when most here were calling for a big bull. The record speaks for itself.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:01 - ID#412286)

(Fri May 29 1998 06:11 - ID#39857)
Friday 29 May, 1998 ( 6:52pm AEST )

An Australian sea captain is free after being released by
Chinese authorities investigating the hijacking of his ship.

China correspondent, Michael Cavanagh, reports the
discharge comes more than a month after authorities
intercepted the vessel.

Captain Kenneth Blyth is understood to have left the
southern Chinese port town of Haikou where the ship had
been held by officials. His vessel the Petro Ranger along
with its crew is also back in the hands of its Singapore
based owners. Captain Blyth and his crew who were
rescued last month after a Chinese navy patrol boat
intercepted the ship in territorial waters. At the time its
hijackers were unloading its cargo of diesel and kerosene
to another craft. The Petro Ranger had gone missing nine
days earlier a day after it left Singapore bound for
Vietnam. Michael Cavanagh Beijing.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:12 - ID#257148)
Crusty, a leetle bit more from JM, and something for thong-man
Crusty, All
Hope you got your copy of JM's '98 Platinum outlook that fancy pants has been giving us quotes from. That Platinum Liberty sure is pretty on the front cover. And the supply/demand tables are interesting.

However, RJ, the 1997 Japanese Plat demand at 1,910,000 oz ( about 40% of world demand ) has been sliding since 1992, most of this is taken by Jewellery and investment purchases ( 1,390.000 oz ) .

Relatively small percentage changes in this one area of demand can have large effects on overall demand, no? Can we not also expect to see Japanese dishoarding of Plat if the land of the rising sun gets too hot? I mean, like Indonesian & Korean dishoarding of precious recently, and seasonal demands of Ag and Au in India?

I appreciate the PGMs are looking especially sweet, as the demand is now being legislated for. And supplies are particulary dodgy, as a relative recently put it in any email " mostly as the Russians can't transport the stuff across 2000 miles of mafia/gang infested landscape."

I'd like to hear your view of possible japanese dishoarding, and, just how much plat is stashed in japan anyway? quick run through the numbers looks like about 15moz has been *salted* away in the land that gave the world Changi Prison, The Burma Railway, and Manchuria, and may soon try to take the Kurils back.

15 Moz, a decent order of magnitude in this game, yes?


John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 06:16 - ID#24387)
OK How about ..
Platinum to 330-335 before the end of
july ??

(Fri May 29 1998 06:18 - ID#26793)
Amax-Kinross news

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 06:21 - ID#24387)
Like Salt and tomatoes..
Salty ..
two minds always in tune ...
see my last post which must have been
sent almost the same time as yours..
amazing ..
I havent got my new JM .. what should
I do ??

(Fri May 29 1998 06:26 - ID#26793)
143 Korean labor leaders face criminal charges for leading two day strike.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:28 - ID#257148)

you gotta get crients.

I was also sent JM's inhouse magazine, called "assay". Though I can't for the life of me think why.

On the front cover, the JM Chairman & CEO, David Davies is snapped at No 10 with PM,Tony Blair and John Prescott, deputy PM. Perhaps CJS could advise us if the UK is planning more high emmission control standards?

(Fri May 29 1998 06:28 - ID#316193)
Your 01:19 and 01:22 regarding REITs are appreciated! Sleepy
response, please excuse.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:30 - ID#26793)
Japanese unemployment rate at record high; set to rise above U.S. rate.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
Derivatives traders step up fight to prevent any new reporting rules.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:42 - ID#43349)
supply,demand,and speculation
In the long run, prices of goods and services are
determined by relative supply and demand. In the
short run, however, prices amy sometimes be held
at artifical levels due either to misapprehension
of supply vs demand levels or even outright
manipulations by speculative interests.

If prices remain too low, eventually shortages
develop. If too high, inventory buildup and over
supply. The length of time before prices must yield
to the demands of supply and demand is determined
by the capacity of warehouses and size of stored

We sometimes note with some chagrin that although
the supply of some commodity fails to meet demand
the price perversely moves in the wrong direction.
It should be kept in mind, however that this is a
short to intermediate phenomenon and can not
persist in the long run.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:45 - ID#257148)
The statue of Riberty
Crusty, Fancy Pants,

Okee tell me I'm paranoid in paradise, I don't care. I have just flicked through this "assay" magazine, spring of 98, and, being serendipitously-minded ( buying the serendips ) , my eyes alighted ( or perhaps, arighted ) on the article about JM's involvement supplying Platinum to the US Mint ( that's the one in Merka ) and I spied the designer, one Tanaka Kikinzoku, from the land of sushi. The picture illustrating the story was, naturally a Platinum Eagle. The odd thing is the light angle. It appears that Lady Liberty has a distinct Japanese cast, something like a Manga comic representation, A cartoon acceptable to both Japan and Merka. To a Japanese, Liberty may look Japanese. Hmmmmmmmm......And the hopefuls on Ellis Island see no difference..

(Fri May 29 1998 06:49 - ID#286199)
Buy Stocks with your Credit Card!
Do Mutual Funds Take Plastic? The Answer May Soon Be Yes


Mutual funds on a credit card?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may have opened the door to just such a thing. It gave its approval last week to a plan that would allow investors to use credit cards to buy shares in a recently formed venture-capital fund being marketed exclusively over the Internet. If ordinary mutual funds are interested, it appears that they might also win
SEC approval to take MasterCard and Visa as payment for fund shares.

This raises questions about whether investors would get carried away and amass too much debt buying the latest hot fund. While the SEC is requiring the venture-capital firm, Technology Funding, San Mateo,
Calif., to warn investors about this sort of risk, racking up costly credit-card debt has become an American pastime.

The SEC's approval was the first time the commission has lifted a longstanding federal restriction on the extension of credit for the purchase of mutual-fund shares or new securities issues. Under certain
circumstances, investors can already borrow from a brokerage firm as much as 50% of the cost of buying mutual-fund shares or stock, say securities-industry officials.

The SEC isn't guaranteeing that it will approve credit-card use for mutual funds. An SEC spokesman added that others seeking a similar exemption to accept credit cards would have to file their own SEC
application. The agency would then give it a separate review and decide whether to grant an exemption.

The SEC action comes after the Federal Reserve Board staff, in an opinion letter last year, gave its approval for broker-dealers to accept credit cards for certain securities purchases. However, a spokeswoman for the National Association of Securities Dealers says her organization hasn't heard of any members who are yet accepting credit cards.

Charles Kokesh, Technology Funding's managing general partner, sees the SEC's action as a breakthrough that will help spur growth in the
burgeoning world of electronic securities commerce. "We are providing a road map" to others in the securities industry, says Mr. Kokesh, whose new fund will invest in companies in the early stage of development.

Technology Funding's product isn't a mutual fund, but it is governed by many of the same federal rules as mutual funds, and SEC officials gave its credit-card request the same type of review it would give one from a mutual fund. This is why the SEC's action could have ripple effects in the fund business. The Internet has been rapidly growing as a place to buy and sell funds. Dozens of fund operators have set up Web sites offering information about their funds and, in some cases, giving existing customers the ability to move money among their accounts. Investors who buy and sell fund shares through discount brokerage
accounts can also do a lot of trading on the Internet.

One question that hangs over all this electronic commerce is how customers, particularly new ones, will pay for the securities transactions. To a large degree, "we are still dealing with procedures built for an off-line world," says Mary Witwer, vice president of
electronic commerce at American Century Investments, a big mutual-fund company in Kansas City, Mo. Ms. Witwer says that to open an account
customers still have to pay by check or by making arrangements to transfer money electronically from a bank account. "It can be a cumbersome process," she concedes.

As the use of the Internet in securities transactions grows, "it absolutely becomes more important" to find quicker, easier ways to transfer money and potentially "credit cards are part of that," Ms. Witwer adds. She says she's interested in the possible use of credit cards, but hasn't yet looked at the issue in depth.

The use of credit cards could give a boost to securities sales, but it also carries a number of risks and unanswered questions. For example, credit-card users often have a right to challenge a purchase after the fact. And there's also the matter of who would pay the fees that credit-card companies charge to merchants. Mr. Kokesh says the fees will be charged against any future profits generated by the fund.

"There are a lot of drawbacks to the credit-card approach," says a spokesman for Vanguard Group, one of the nation's biggest mutual-fund operators. Besides the question of who would pay the card-company fee, he says, there are concerns about setting up a system where one could pay credit-card interest of 18% to finance an investment in stocks, which over the long term have appreciated at about 10% a year. "That doesn't seem the way to invest in success," says the spokesman.

"If mutual funds want to raise the stakes on how fast their image gets tarnished, they could" start taking credit cards, says Robert Powell, a director of Dalbar Inc., a Boston research firm. He argues that investing
decisions should require more time and reflection than purchasing consumer goods, particularly when the investor can rack up expensive credit-card debt. "For those prone to impulse buying," mixing easy credit and Internet investing "is your worst nightmare," says Mr. Powell.

The SEC itself expressed concern about the potential for abuses in a letter giving Technology Funding the go-ahead for its credit-card proposal. Among other things, the letter emphasized the need for a
prominent warning on the fund's Web site "to dissuade investors from carrying a balance on their credit cards as a result of the purchase of Fund shares. The warning will include a hypothetical example of how the related interest costs could substantially exceed any increase in share value." Mr. Kokesh said the fund's SEC proposal contained such a warning.

The Technology Funding decision is "one more component of a series of actions we have taken to foster innovation in the securities markets," says Richard Lindsey, the SEC's director of market regulation.

Mr. Kokesh says he believes initial interest in using credit cards will come from smaller fund operators rather than industry giants as a way to help them seek out new customers on the Internet. He says market research with consumer focus groups helped convince him that offering payment by credit cards was "essential" to selling his new fund, called Technology Funding Venture Capital Fund VI, which aims to raise $100 million. Consumers who make purchases on-line are accustomed to using credit cards. "This on-line transaction world really wants to know you got their message instantly," says Mr. Kokesh.

According to his fund's prospectus, Technology Funding was formed in 1979 and has managed 21 other investment funds that raised over $300 million
from some 42,000 investors. Three funds similar to the new one had annual rates of return as of last Dec. 31 that ranged from 10% to 34%, the prospectus said.

The new fund's investors, who must commit at least$1,000 each, are signing up for a very long haul. According to its prospectus, investors don't have the right to withdraw from the fund until it dissolves,
something currently scheduled for 2007. Moreover, the prospectus says there won't be a trading market for the fund's shares.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:52 - ID#185448)
To Sharefin:

Dear Sir!
Your restless efforts re Y2K caused me to check the companys computer system though I was sure, everything would be ok. WAS NOT!! Within the Access 2.0 databases, which rose to the heart of the administration system in recent years, I found enough dd/mm/yy s in sections of strategic importance, that would have kept us occupied until 2200 with fixing wrong data and their impacts.
Will wait for the right moment to sell my knowledge.
1. Im deeply in your debt
2. Y2K IS a bomb.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:53 - ID#412286)
Credit Cards
Used to buy gold and Silver futures and options by some.

(Fri May 29 1998 06:58 - ID#373403)
"We have to remember that the commodity bear is really mainly in dollars. So really it is not a bear but a bear in one currency. There is a silent commodity bull rolling across the world in other currencies"

Absolutely! If you are in Japan and the Yen goes from 128 to 139 to the dollar ( 8.5% devaluation ) and the global price of gold remains stable in dollar terms then your gold holdings went up in value for domestic purchases. Conversely, there is pressure to sell your gold under these circumstances in order to realize these purchasing power gains.

Therefore, as each economy devalues it's currency, those with dollars gain in their precious metal purchasing power, it becomes a buyers market. Given a lackluster demand for gold, prices have been falling or at least not rising. Lower demand is supported by currency devaluations.

When the dollar hits its apex and reverses is when the bull roars. The world is much bigger than the U.S. This will become important when the U.S. goes into recession as the rest of the world is emerging from theirs. When domestic demand dries up like in Japan, we cannot export our way out with this strong dollar.

There is inflation but it has been masked by low interst rates, the strong dollar, falling commodities ( due in part to the strong dollar ) , and Asian/South American recession. When the mask is taken off, inflation will be harsh, immediate, and unfixable. Instead of dealing with inflation when it is not painful to do so, the Federal Reserve has decided to ride the wave through stable interest rates and insane money supply growth targets.

This massive transfer of wealth we are witnessing will reverse itself through either contraction/deflation or riots/welfare. This will happen when the corrupt politicians and weak monetary authorities have drained the last bit of blood and sweat from the common man for the benefit of themselves and their wealthy friends.

Debt financing has stolen from future generations and globalization has stolen from the working man. Corrupt politicians and weak willed monetary authorities!

(Fri May 29 1998 07:01 - ID#257148)
oops, to err is human, to F*ur is to put off.

tell me I'm salty in Paradise

I misread the article. that last post has no ground in fact, not even in the serengeti. Tanaka Kikinzoku crafted a replica of Riberty, that was at the launch of the Eagle, he did design the obverse of the Eagle, anyone know who did? Riberty still looks Manga to me, but.


(Fri May 29 1998 07:09 - ID#57232)
Russian Precious metal sales?
RJ: Please -- could you answer sharefin's question? Is Russia selling precious metals in excess -- especially silver and gold? That is the key question of the hour. I repeat my question -- they would sell their dollars first -- where is the flood of US dollars from Russia? And what is the reason for massive precious metals sales in Russia if the rumor is true? What do they want in return? Food?

If Hong Kong sold gold or silver during a financial crisis -- that I understand. Reduced silver buying in India/Pakistan during a world crisis,that too. But -- I think Russian motives are far more complex and unpredictable. Hence I doubt the news of a Russian silver flood, unless confirmed.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:14 - ID#257148)
the silver tongued devil and I
I too applaud sharefin Nick's sharing here.

Permit me to assist your English. "Restless" does not mean without rest, rather, it means fidgety, can't keep still. I think you might be looking for the word untiring, which means ceaseless, without stopping.

Oh, I feel some half-forgotten French verse from ( ? ) Baudelaire

"Ennivrez-vous. Ennivrez- vous de vin, du poesie ou du virtue, mais, ennivrez-vous sans cesse."

I hope I haven't butchered a beautiful passage taught me during my mispent by a gorgeous French woman in Bukitinggi in Central Sumatra.

warm rabbits to y'all

(Fri May 29 1998 07:20 - ID#39857)
Selamat Djalan as I Bambangbang make a hasty departure for Switzerland. "Yo tattooed baby shooter of
Friday 29 May, 1998 ( 6:54pm AEST )

The son of former Indonesian President Suharto, Bambang
Trihatmojo, has resigned as president director of the
Indonesian conglomerate, PT Bimantara Citra.

The veteran leader's son-in-law, Indra Rukmana, also
reportedly resigned as chief commissioner of the company.

Bambang is Suharto's second son while Rukmana is the
husband of his eldest daughter Siti "Tutut" Hardiyanti

Newly appointed Bimantara chief commissioner, Rosano
Barack, said Mohamad Tachril Sap'ie had been appointed
president director.

PT Bimantara Citra has a wide range of business interests.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:24 - ID#39857)
Damn it!
"Yo tattooed baby - shooter of blanks"

(Fri May 29 1998 07:25 - ID#222231)
ALL - Words to live by
A bigger fool than the fellow who knows it all is the one who'll argue with him.

P.S. The PM markets are rigged, and anyone who tries to beat the powers that be are doomed to fail.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:26 - ID#57232)
Commodity price drop vs dollar rally
All: There is one glaring problem with the claim that dropping commodity prices are due to a dollar rise, and that is that the dollar has not risen high enough to keep commodities/US dollar constant. Something else is happening.

One of our fellow Kitco posters have have hit on a possibility. What if all metal commodities are now being traded in a monolithic manner -- like gold -- as political entities? What I mean is that the 'powers that be' know how to suppress the gold price with derivatives, if the correct approach is used. Very powerful. What if all this time the 'powers that be' had not looked at the commodities market, and had just focused on gold? And then, one day they realize the 'game is up' with gold, and it cannot be suppressed any more? Well -- why not repeat the same game with commodities, as depressed commodity prices are almost as effective at suppressing gold prices as suppressing gold prices directly?

Anyone notice a significant shift in the use of derivatives in the non-precious metals group? I know this sounds wild -- but the possbility should be explored. Could those commodities missing from COMEX stores be going to some other exchange? The LME?

There are two other explanations -- Big time worldwide deflation, and a secret speculative bullish shift into commodities. In the latter, perhaps we are seeing a massive attempt to shake out the weak longs. Given the worldwide situation, I doubt that anyone would be fullish to go long non-precious metals ( in dollars ) , unless they know the US dollar is about to fall.

Interesting times -- too many questions, and too few answers.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:37 - ID#57232)
International Markets, Globex
All: You might want to take a look -- the general trend is up, not down. The world weathered another Pakistan nuclear test, and the markets held together -- again. The dollar is up, not down. My guess is that the US markets will head up today.

By the way, I forget one other explanation of dropping commodity prices -- do they tend to preceed changes in the dollar? What if the US dollar is about to head up more, not down? The dollar index went up as high as 140 around 1984 when it finally peaked. Just a thought -- a 40% rise in the US dollar would be devastating to the worlds economy, IMHO.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:38 - ID#252391)
Russian Silver sales???
What is there somethng floating around about Russia selling silver today.? I suppose, why not? the swiss and dutch are selling gold, the japanes are dishording platinum, russian palladium is being delovered to japan, ROR is perdicting $3.58 silver by June's end.

I perdicted $4.91 was a good buy earlier this morning. I notice silver either is or is erroneously jumping around $5 in all manner of crazy ways. Down under $5 does seem to be the prefered level.

Anybody have anything about the Russians selling of silver or a reason behind the volitility if its not more than misquotes - seems the bears are trotting out every rumor imaginable to run these things down - maybe they will be successful - it's not getting that far between here and zero and the end of June.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:42 - ID#248180)
Palladium- Russia from FT London
FRIDAY MAY 29 1998
Commodities 

Palladium markets hit by talk of leaks
By Gary Mead
Precious metal traders said on Thursday they suspected small supplies of palladium were being leaked into a marketplace starved of the metal - used in electronics and catalytic converters - since the start of this year.

The afternoon "fix" in London of $297 per troy ounce, against the morning's $318, was the lowest since April 9. Lease rates for the metal have also been dropping. The consensus is that metal is being sold, but officially Russia, which accounts for some 70 per cent of the world's production, has yet to resume exports, which have been in suspended animation.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:44 - ID#341189)
Moring PM commentary from Europe - Gold to base until June 9?

(Fri May 29 1998 07:50 - ID#43185)
I'm not quite sure what you mean by:
"All: There is one glaring problem with the claim that dropping commodity prices are due to a dollar rise, and that is that the dollar has not risen high enough to keep commodities/US dollar constant."
Could you explain?

In my mind, dropping commodity prices are coming from 4 main sources.
1 ) Major sectors of the world economy are either in the tank or in the
process of tanking due to distortions caused by the high dollar. Lack
of industrial and consumer demand from these sectors brings drops in
commodities like oil, steel, and so forth.
2 ) The dollar is seen as a safe haven for flight funds. This brings a
lack of demand for those commodities which have traditionally been
seen as an equivalent store of wealth like gold, diamonds, and so
3 ) Continuing lack of inflation and a strong economy has allowed a long
term stock market boom which has diverted retierment and other funds
from more traditional savings methods and diminished investment in
real assets.
4 ) Speculator ploys using derivatives for forward sales and short sales
has artifically lowered prices that would otherwise react more
immediately to regular supply and demand pressures.

(Fri May 29 1998 07:51 - ID#289357)
XAU charts and commentary

XAU Fibonacci time chart

XAU Forecaster charts - short, intermediate, long term

XAU forecast

XAU charts ( a link to, a good chart site - add your own indicators and time scale )

(Fri May 29 1998 08:03 - ID#340459)
Pegasus News

SPOKANE, WA, May 29 /CNW/ - Pegasus Gold Inc. ( PGU - ME; PSGQF - OTC
B.B. ) reports that its efforts to file a Plan of Reorganization by July 31,
1998 are on track pending the continued cooperation of all parties.
On May 13, 1998, the Bankruptcy Court granted the Company an extension to
the exclusive period to file a Plan of Reorganization to July 31, 1998. The
exclusive period to solicit acceptances of such plan has been extended to
September 30, 1998.
Based on evaluations of the Company's assets at current gold prices, the
preliminary work on the Plan of Reorganization indicates that common
shareholders of Pegasus Gold Inc. are unlikely to receive any value.
Pegasus Gold Inc. is an international gold mining company, headquartered
in Spokane, Washington. The Company operates three gold mines in the Western
United States and carries out exploration internationally through offices
located in Argentina and the United States. The common shares of Pegasus are
traded under the symbol PGU on the Montreal Exchange. The common shares also
trade over the counter in the United States under the symbol PSGQF.
-0- 05/29/98

For further information: John W. Pearson, Vice President, Investor and Public Relations, ( 509 ) 624-4653

(Fri May 29 1998 08:04 - ID#185448)
Dancing with knot-in-the tongue

Just stopped slapping myself to the forehead with the dictionary that fooled my by returning "restless" for the word I was looking for. In fact, I tried to avoid the word "unvaluable" as I was afraid to say something like "worthless" instead of "cant be valued high enough". Yes yes, englisch speak, heavy speak...
My apologies to sharefin, if I spoilt his image - try now to use even more simple words to avoid future expressive dysfunctionalities.

Bo Teller ( Does he have a brother named Edward?? ) spelled it with just one "n". ( But pronounciation may depend on circumstances )

Ennnnnnnnnnnivrez vous

Always yours sincerly

(Fri May 29 1998 08:21 - ID#39857)
Just when you thought that was it, friut cake for desert! Oh-dear.
Friday 29 May, 1998 ( 9:57pm AEST )

Former film star, Joseph Estrada, has been officially declared
the next president of the Philippines.

The declaration by a joint session of Congress was a
formality after unofficial vote counting from the May 11
election gave him the biggest margin in the history of free
Philippine presidential elections.

Mr Estrada, who is currently vice president, told reporters he
wanted to thank all the people who supported him.

He takes over when President Fidel Ramos ends his six-year
rule on June 30th.

Joseph Estrada won the 10-way race with more than
10-thousand votes, more than six million votes ahead of his
nearest rival and Ramos's preferred successor, House
Speaker Jose de Venecia.

(Fri May 29 1998 08:23 - ID#248180)
Prices from London
Commodities: Gold falls further as yen weakens against U.S. dollar
Date: 29 May 1998 12:41:47
Service: AFX

LONDON ( AFX ) - Gold was lower in midday trade here after the yen weakened
sharply against the U.S. dollar overnight, making the dollar-priced metal less
attractive to Asian investors in local currency terms, dealers said.

PRECIOUS METALS ( Spot prices relative to previous London close )

Price ( usd/oz )

Gold 292.75 dn 1.50
Platinum 364.00 dn 5.00
Palladium 292.00 dn 5.00
Silver 4.97 dn 0.21

According to Brandeis base metals analyst Robin Bhar: "Economic fundamentals
point to the dollar strengthening even further against Asian currencies, and
this can only be bad news for gold prices."
He said there has been good producer activity in the market all week,
particularly from Australia, where currency devaluation has prompted hedge
selling further forward.
Bhar added the probability that the Swiss National Bank will sell half of
its gold reserves has also "weighed heavily" on the market this week, prompting
"a flurry of speculative selling".
Dealers said the market is still speculating on the outcome of the ECB's
meeting on June 9 which could give an indication of the bank's attitude towards
gold reserves.
Silver fell sharply as speculative selling pushed prices below key technical
support at the 5.00 usd level, amid concerns over slowing demand from India as a
result of economic sanctions imposed upon it by the U.S., dealers said.
Palladium was also sharply lower as speculation grew that supplies have been
leaking out of Russia, dealers said.
GNI analyst Leslie Nicholas said that although Russian officials have not
yet granted any licences to export palladium this year, in a rerun of last
year's supply shortage which lasted for six months, "there have been reports of
sales from 'unusual' and 'anonymous' sources" which he said suggest that the
Russians have been trying to sell forward ahead of negotiating term deals.

(Fri May 29 1998 08:28 - ID#426220)

With lethal logic Ted Butler cuts down Martin Armstrong in their duel debate about the PROMISING prospects of SILVER. Butler's rebuttal to Armstrong's recent SILVER reports called "BLACK & WHITE." Remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word golden of the URL before position to Internet locator:

JOE Smith
(Fri May 29 1998 08:40 - ID#24869)
Silver. India V Pakistan and more
it might be 1 all in the nuclear bomb race,hence silver has gone down around $1.50 in the last month, yet Silver stocks have gone up only marginally to about 91 mill oz ,no trade restriction will effect the next silver stampeede.
when will the world wake up that both gold and silver are a store of wealth.

I am not a Indonesian ,but if i were i would have bought gold at $320 and be miles in front.

Many wealthy asians will still consider this strategy,---some USA fund managers might just consider it now before the eneviaable Wall street melt down.

(Fri May 29 1998 08:40 - ID#222231)
ALL - Who is Mike Kosares? Who is ANOTHER? Who is LGB? Who is RJ?
Is Mike Kosares Mike Kosares? Is ANOTHER ANOTHER? Or is Mike Kosares ANOTHER? Or is ANOTHER Mike Kosares? Or is LGB LGB? Or is RJ RJ? Or is LGB RJ? Or is RJ LGB? I'm confused! Does anyone really know for sure?

P.S. Even if the PM markets are rigged, the only thing that will beat the powers that be is physical accumulation of such magnitude that the shorts would be squeezed by thier B@LLS. Remember, there is less than 1 oz of gold available to each and every person on this planet.


Before you flare up at ANOTHERS THOUGHTS, ( FAULTS ) , take time to count ten of your own.

Crystal Ball
(Fri May 29 1998 08:45 - ID#287405)
Will metals go lower in the next 6-12 months? Who gives a damn?!
In 1968 dollars we are already looking at $1 silver and gold under $100. The collective consciousness will eventually realize that U.S. "currency" is just green paper with no more intrinsic value than toilet tissue. Franz Pick pointed out that this has happened to every paper money in history WITHOUT EXCEPTION. As we watch it happening in Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia; people say it can't happen in the US of A. Whether it takes until year 2000 or 2005 for this to happen doesn't matter. When it happens ( and it will ) the only question will be, "Got gold?" What ever's left from my paycheck after food and rent, IDCIBM.

(Fri May 29 1998 08:45 - ID#43185)
Good post. I was glad to read the article by Ted
Butler. Market prices can ignore supply and demand
for fairly long periods of time so long as sufficient
stocks and/or warehouse space exists. Eventually
however, artifically low prices lead to shortages.
That time for silver must be getting to be close
otherwise Warren Buffet, who studied the market for
so long, would never have entered an arena whose
rules were dictated by local speculators.

(Fri May 29 1998 08:50 - ID#317193)
Dec. gold contract
Long Dec. Gold @ $299. Is this dumb or dumber...wait six months and I'll tell you!

Pete...good to see you posting again. Physical is good. Yes?


(Fri May 29 1998 09:00 - ID#255190)
Fred@Vienna re: Y2K
Just popping in here. Glad you were motivated to check your company's systems. The overall pattern you have experienced is one that, I believe, is typical. Upon hearing of said Y2K problem we tend to brush it off, or do a little asking around and are reassured by a few that everything is just fine. But upon hearing persistent, nagging, haranging, interminable, disturbing, provocative, reasoned and probing posts from such eminences as sharefin and a few others [;- ) ] we end up doing a little research of our own.

And once we do that research and uncover the rotting carcass of our systems we realize that this mess is truly real and truly bad: real bad.

Wetgold's posts of last night tend to betray an attitude that is prevalent in the IT/IS community: "no problem", "a few minor disruptions", "we are in control". Unfortunately these are the same people who continually deliver late, overbudget, buggy and incomplete products and services. The Dilbert cartoon strip is popular because IT/IS management is pervasively unable to stay in contact with basic reality. If you ask these people they will tell you everything is OK, no problem, plan in place, everything is working just great, top priority, etc, etc.

Three quarters of the national gevernments in this old world of ours have no Year 2000 plan or agenda as of March of 1998. 44% of the top world banks acknowledged in an anonymous survey that they would not be ready to test by 1/1/1999. 30% of US businesses have no Year 2000 plan in place today. the top banks in Japan, the largest banks in the world, have estimated their total Year 2000 budgets to be less than the total for Citibank's renovation effort; less than half of what Chase has budgeted.

None of us has until 2000 to deal with this. When people recognize, in 1999, that we are all going into the toilet together, then panic will begin to eat out the strength of any of these efforts. When you see people standing in line at banks, it will be to late to do anything for yourself. Our wonderful world will fall apart long before the machines choke.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:01 - ID#288369)
@My people, "oh ye........"
The POG is sooooo loooooow that I refuse to calculate and publish The Inscrutable Index this morning. I apologize, but I have to take a stand. Those relying on this invaluable datum must take their investment positions without the benefit of this highly acclaimed, critical analyses. Good luck and may Gold bless you. studio.SNL's next.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:01 - ID#254201)
If If If
If we are still in a silver bull market and on the brink of wave 3 up silver must hold here. July silver reached the bottom end of the projected correction low of 5.10 - 4.90. ( This morning's low 4.925 ) On a weekly chart wave a equals wave c at 4.915. The 5 hour rsi is under 20%. This morning's lows should be the bottom. Move from a close only stop to a straight stop under todays lows.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:04 - ID#252391)
Thanks Vronsky
for the lead to the Butler piece on Armstrong's essay. I haven't read Armstrong's piece yet but if its points are as Butler suggests it would seem that Armstrong may be in the pay of those trying to keep the gold and silver market downn. With your posting of this URL the negativiety about the metasl has come off this page and we are starting to see the first signs of green.

So far silver looks to have been a pretty good buy down there at $4.91.

Gold up on the morning.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:07 - ID#185448)
anyone knows, whats up, watch em prices getting mad the last minutes

(Fri May 29 1998 09:07 - ID#39857)

(Fri May 29 1998 09:17 - ID#288186)
July Silver currently @ 5.09 (Stay above 5.00 please!!!)
August Gold @ 293.00 Fox-Man

(Fri May 29 1998 09:18 - ID#372400)
It looks like even freestyle translation of Nostradamus has more chances to be coorect in prediction of POG than all supply/demand talks. Hummm

(Fri May 29 1998 09:21 - ID#213265)
@the scene
APH -- I concur. 'Should' be a good area for purchase of silver. Beware of failure though!

(Fri May 29 1998 09:22 - ID#402148)
What do you mean?


(Fri May 29 1998 09:23 - ID#248180)
Russian Coal Miners Strike - "Very Civilized" - Indeed - Sir John Disney
@John Disney's comments re Russian Strikers. Excellent comment and astute observation of the ( Salt of the Earth ) coal miners. I have observed Russian citizens and am often amazed at their willingness to reconcile differences in a honorable way. The wealth of Russia is not merely in it's abundunt natural resources but more so in the rich moral fabric of the Russian man, women and child. Indeed it is a rich country when coal miners are not paid for 6-9 months and then strike. Yet they enjoy what they have and are not starving nor are they without shelter and transportation. Aah the Siberian summer or late spring it is not a time of struggle but a celebration of sunshine, life, abundant berries and forest mushrooms.

@ORIS: I am but a student and observer of this great country Russia that is all too often misunderstood, and mocked. It has a unique culture and is indeed arguablly the richest country in natural resources, and a people that have been tried by fire ( humiliation ) and wars more than once. The most negetive comment and truthful comment I may make about Russia is that it is one of the most MISMANAGED countries on earth between 1917 - 1991. If the present government was judged fairly one might see an ecomomic success story in the making, present problems included. When one conciders the start point the progress has been amazing.
Investment in Russia is no more a risk than in China, Mexico, Brazil or Indonesia.
As the Russians say; "He who does not risk does not drink champagne".
Good night and "na zdarovia" Best wishes for your mother.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:26 - ID#432157)

DO NOT OPEN E-MAIL "WIN A HOLIDAY" some type of virus

(Fri May 29 1998 09:28 - ID#372400)
@Hopeful -- just want to clear the gloom
I was refering to my post today at about 2:00

(Fri May 29 1998 09:35 - ID#36156)
geoffs - WIN A HOLIDAY
From the Datafellows web page:

This is a false warning of a malicious e-mail which does not exist.

Here's an example of the hoax.

If you receive an email titled "WIN A HOLIDAY" DO NOT open it.
It will erase everything on your hard drive. Forward this
letter outto as many people as you can. This is a new, very
malicious virus and not many people know about it. This
information was announced yesterday ( 16/2/98 ) morning from
Microsoft; please share it with everyone that might access the
internet. Once again, pass this along to EVERYONE in your
address book so that this may be stopped. Also, do not open or
even look at any mail that says "RETURNED OR UNABLE TO
DELIVER" This virus will attach itself to your computer
components and render them useless. Immediately delete any
mail items that say this. AOL has said that this is a very
dangerous virus and that there is NO remedy for it at this
time. Please practice cautionary measures and forward this to
all your online friends = ASAP.

Ignore this hoax warning and do not pass it on.


You can view this, and other hoaxes at:


(Fri May 29 1998 09:39 - ID#286230)
United Keno
James Burke: UKH is about 6 months away from reopening after multimillion dollar upgrading. Unfortunately it has been 6 months away for over a year now and will be 6 months away again tomorrow. They lack a mere $20 million to finish all the upgrades and are in discussions to obtain the cash. Nothing happening to silver today is going to make that any easier. There is a SI site for UKH that stays current.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:43 - ID#340459)
Gold firming on friday, Looks Good so far this morning
The World thinks that US dollar can bail them out of global fiscal problems. Everybody owes everybody else in huge quantities of paper.
The wealth in USA is due to constant inflow of cash being moved to get out of depreciating values of their own paper, backed with the word of only the Dictator or Govt of the Day. This global 'flight' and paper created wealth is flowing within USA and termed as real good times ( at the cost of global poor ) . Silver and Palladium has been Roller Coaster.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 29 1998 09:46 - ID#384350)
Crudele Article
Crudele questions the "Safe Haven" status of US Markets. And it is for certain that foreigners have been pouring into US corporate equities in record numbers in the past couple of years.

It appears that this move into US equities has prevented the dollar from falling in face of its massive current account deficit. So when US markets and US corp profits start deteriorating, foreigners may very well pull their money out of USD denominated securities.

Crudele again points to the special report by K. Starr which is due out in a few weeks. Crudele says:

What if the report accuses the president of racketeering? Of essentially being a gangster. A well-known financial broadcaster once said to me, "I want to be on the floor of the exchange the day they accuse Clinton of racketeering."

(Fri May 29 1998 09:47 - ID#254269)
Donald; This one may be of interest to you; Today's WSJ Page B7F has article
titled " International Board Proposes Principles to curb market risk".
Talks about the International Organization of Securities Commissions technical committee in Paris. IOSC has 30 proposed recommendations referred to as the "Paris Principles". Urges its members to incorporate "value at risk" models in calculating regulatory capital.

Unfortunately I cannot post it electronically.

(Fri May 29 1998 09:50 - ID#340459)
Looks like some type of war in white metal(s)..
Anyone has a ear to the floor on Comex ?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:01 - ID#410198)
EPA said some things about air pollution on plat

(Fri May 29 1998 10:06 - ID#242325)
Cross of greeenbacks
Some here may have heard about William Jennings Bryan's famous 1896 speech when he said that "mankind will not be crucified on a cross of gold". Bryan and his supporters were then trying to have silver monetized.

But today much of mankind is being crucified on a cross of greenbacks. And only gold can liberate people from this form of modern bondage. When enough people recognize this simple fact the gold bull will begin.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:07 - ID#348286)
@US $
The Dollar rules the world, this is a fact today. The rich are not getting richer, they are becoming billionaires and wiping out the middle class.
Never in human history have monarchies survived.
These pseudo monarchies will also meet a ugly end......

(Fri May 29 1998 10:08 - ID#22956)
silver stuff..........(UGH)...
I am just the messenger........... ( dammit ) ...


Silver futures slumped in New York Thursday, falling through key

support levels on their technical charts as investors continued to

take profits after the strong run-up in the metal earlier this


July silver fell 11.80 cents to close at $5.05 an ounce. "It was a

lot of speculation that brought the price up as much as it did,

and people taking profits are going to push the price as low as

they can now," said Joshua Giordano, precious metals manager at

Mitsubishi International Corp. ( WSJ Interactive )


"push the prices as low as they can go....." ..... ( sounds ugly ) .... let us throw the S/D picture......



(Fri May 29 1998 10:08 - ID#43185)

(Fri May 29 1998 10:11 - ID#43185)
I just hope it's not a nuclear end with me standing too close.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:11 - ID#329186)
I e-mailed this morning but have no reply
please tell me what is required for access to 24 hour graph?????

(Fri May 29 1998 10:12 - ID#43185)
I just hope it's not a nuclear end with me standing too close.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:13 - ID#57232)
Dollar vs Commodities
Gollum: Quick post. Agree with your synopsis that commodity price drop is probably a combination of world-wide deflationary effects, as well as derivatives type manipulation. I wish I know how much was real, and how much was speculative. It could be that 25% or more of the cry0 index is derivatives-driven. Base metal prices may actually be bottoming very much like gold. Also, in the US I think the drop in the cry0 may be due to the unusually good agricultural reports -- ElNino related. I don't think that will last through 98. Forrest fires already in Florida.

My only point about the dollar is that the dollar rise is not sufficient to explain the drop in commodities, as several people had suggested.

These are wild times -- it is not only gold which is becoming unpredictable.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:13 - ID#402148)
Q3 '97 Armstrong predicting precious metals bull would be beginning about now.


(Fri May 29 1998 10:19 - ID#358318)
Gold will not rise properly...
until Joe sixpack gets a resounding slap in the face.
What this could be:-

Major slide in the currency, as seen in Asia.
Collapse of a major bank or banks, maybe caused by derivatives or Y2K?
Well, might have to be multiple banks, or a main line bank, since
failure of a bank such as BCCI had only local effect.
Collapse of a major mutual fund- triggering a big stock slide.
Nuclear terrorism ( to be taken a bit more seriously in the light
of recent events, eh? ) .
Something finally sticks against the US President from Starr/Congress.
Europe announces 100% gold backing for euro - fat chance.
Major default on gold delivery - physical vs. paper exposed.

I say nothing that has happened yet constitutes the slap-in-the-face.
What will it be, we watch and wait, yes?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:20 - ID#187218)
You posted:

"...Wetgold's posts of last night tend to betray an attitude that is prevalent in the IT/IS community: "no problem", "a few minor disruptions", "we are in control". Unfortunately these are the same people who continually deliver late, overbudget, buggy and incomplete products and services. The Dilbert cartoon strip is popular because IT/IS management is pervasively unable to stay in contact with basic reality. If you ask these people they will tell you everything is OK, no problem, plan in place, everything is working just great, top priority, etc, etc. ..."

Mr. Allen ( USA ) : Because you say it so does not mean it is so. The words you use in quotes do not reflect my opinion of Y2K. I have said in the past that Y2K is a legitimate problem but NOT one of life-threatening and life-altering proportions.

As far as your "we are in control" comment. Firstly, I don't use such language and ( secondly ) I do not seek out clients to fix Y2K issues. The facts are that I have an extensive background in science, mathematics, and engineering and so happened to have done work over the past 2 decade for IS/IT concerns along with many other government agencies and private Corporations. In the early 1970's I had started teaching courses in core memory and PDP/8's and have been involved in all the developments since then including DSP work, hardware/software, ad infinitum ( some by choice and other because my boss told me to do it ) . This is only mentioned so that I can provide background to the statement: "I DO NOT seek out this type work - I am called to perform analysis". I would prefer doing other things actually.

"... Unfortunately these are the same people who continually deliver late, overbudget, buggy and incomplete products and services..." ,,,, Mr. Allen ( USA ) -- please,,, you are far too intelligent a poster to go here.

If you can sit back and objectively read your own posting you will see the bias and hostility that it eminates. I ask that you reconsider your thoughts and have your Y2K positions be more in-line with your reasoned approach toward PM issues. It is here where you have made tremendous contributions to this forum. I am not suggesting that you change your beliefs ONLY that you add reason to you arguments.

Appreciate any comments for the latter.

ALL: I have asked many months ago if anyone knew of deaths or life-altering/life-threatening incidents that are DIRECTLY related to Y2K -- I haven't read anywhere of any such occurrence ( s ) .

I again appeal to all of you that we need to bring forth empirical evidence before we scare the populace...

(Fri May 29 1998 10:25 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re 11:56 yest
I noticed this post re Charlie and Leo. Was this for me? At this point I can't recall Leo. Thanx

(Fri May 29 1998 10:26 - ID#43185)
I see. I agree just the rise of the dollar in of itself would
not be enough to explain all the drama. I think the strength of
the dollar is heavily involved.

Not so much it's rise, as it's strength and the appearance of
stability given that it's associated with the strong US economy.

But that will change.

As to how much prices are pushed around by speculative as opposed
to supply/demand forces....

Well, its kind of like prices were marbles rolling around on the
floor of a boxcar. They can roll either way regardless of the
movement of the train up until they hit a wall. Speculators, or
perhaps I should say manipulators, can move prices either way
regardless of supply or demand up untill they hit shortages or
oversupplies. So in the short run prices are mostly dictated
by the emotions and whims of the traders at the mercy of rumors
and hopes. But in the long run the truth wins out.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:26 - ID#373403)
SPIN! From Bloomberg
"Consumer spending increased in April from a month earlier while incomes
accelerated, signs domestic demand will help offset the ill effects of the Asian crisis on the U.S. economy."

I thought Asia's ill effects were supposed to slow down our heated economy and ward off inflation. Up is down and here is there.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:30 - ID#286230)
I almost agree with you but I see your Joe Sixpack buying when he sees gold as a way to make some money quickly--slap in the face or no slap in the face. Unlike some of us he has not seen much opportunity to do that for about 20 years.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:32 - ID#43185)
Spending is up because prices are down and wages are good. But
the demand doesn't help domestic industry. It helps the
retailers of cheap imported foreign goods and domestic products
whose profit margins have been cut to the bone in an attempt to
compete. Many sectors profit from the crisis. Oil is down so
trucking and transportation do great. But domestic auto production
is hurting. And so it goes...

(Fri May 29 1998 10:35 - ID#207145)
exited about oil drilling stocks, but not just yet.

I am 100% in Treasuries, so I ain't hawking anything, but drillers are going to be a gold mine soon. Gold can't rise until oil does. Seasonality has a lot to do with them both, so, make some money while you wait on gold seasonals.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:36 - ID#43185)
Yes. We watch and wait, but it looks like maybe not too
much longer, N'est Pas?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:38 - ID#238422)
You used an excellent words - MISMANAGED country.
I can not explain it better than you did.
You are the only one here who got a right understanding.
My brother John, as a cultural and smart person, also very
good in this, but he needs to be convinced in some little
details, which is perfectly logical.I feel I can not
accomplish it in full, because, as you know, some things
are kind of hidden and not spoken loudly, in mother Russia,
I mean.

Thank you.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:39 - ID#43185)
Also, when the time comes, it won't be Joe Sixpack who causes
the move. He'll be out on the street selling apples. It'll
be smart scared big money preserving itself by running from
dollars to something a little more durable.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:39 - ID#207145)
Not time to buy anything yet!
Dont get me wrong. Buy nothing now. Oil, like gold, probably has more to go, as we know, on the downside.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:40 - ID#238422)
Miro, in regard to my previous post to Junior.
Miro, you also got a right understanding. You know.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:43 - ID#43185)
I agree. Oil will be a great buy. But not now, not yet.
The crashing countrys have to swing through their cycles
and start getting back on their feet first, and that's
gonna take a while.

Oh I guess, one could accumulate while one waits, but for
how long? Golds been waiting for the dollar to overextend
itself for how long now, twenty years?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:44 - ID#286230)
I doubt you will be correct. Joes will be the buyer as the price goes up and he hears about it and the smart guys will be selling to him. Joe will sell the apples when his $1500 gold goes back to $300 a few months later.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:45 - ID#36156)
Marching to the beat of a different drum...
A few months ago, Howard Stern hosted Julie Cailini ( '96 Playmate of the
Year ) and Stacey Sanchez ( '97 Playmate of the Year ) for a morning of
sordid joviality. The ladies, who were promoting their latest calendars,
answered ten questions from Howard, ostensibly to demonstrate how
important it is for them *AS ROLE MODELS* for young women to stay up on
current affairs.

The ladies' answers were amusing ( and a bit sad ) , but the bit did prove
that you don't have to be a neurosurgeon to earn a pile of cash!

Love him or hate him, you have to appreciate Howard's sense of the absurd.

Q: Who is the President of Russia?
Julie: Gorbachev
Stacey: Gretzky
( correct answer: Boris Yeltsin )

Q: Define the meaning of NAACP.
Julie: Something, something, for Certified Pianists
Stacey: It's some kind of police organization.
( correct answer: National Association for the Advancement of Colored
People )

Q: Who was the inventor of the light bulb?
Julie: I know Edison invented the telephone, but I can't remember the
light bulb guy.
Stacey: I don't know.
( correct answer: Thomas A. Edison. Alexander Graham Bell was the phone
guy! )

Q: Who is the Speaker of the House?
Julie: Gore something-or-other.
Stacey: Bill Clinton.
( correct answer: Newt Gingrich. For the benefit of international members
of the market, Al Gore is the U.S. Vice President, Bill Clinton is our
president. )

Q: Define the meaning of the letters CIA.
Julie: I don't know.
Stacey: Certified Investigation Association.
( correct answer: Central Intelligence Agency )

Q: What is the center of our solar system?
Julie: The Equator
Stacey: The Moon
( correct answer: The Sun )

Changing his tack to create better odds for the girls, Howard switched to
what he termed "industry related" questions:

Q: What do the initials "DK" stand for?
A: both knew it was fashion designer "Donna Karan."

Q: What is "Cristal?"
A: both knew it was an elite champagne

Q: What car company has a model known as a "911?"
A: both knew it was Porsche

Q: Whose face is on the ( U.S. ) $100 bill?
A: both knew it was Ben Franklin

(Fri May 29 1998 10:45 - ID#358318)
Joe Sixpack
Selby- I agree that is the motivation, but what comes first, the
chicken or the egg? For Joe sixpack to see a profit in gold, he must
first perceive a rising price, and what will make the price rise?

Gollum- Peut-tre alors!

(Fri May 29 1998 10:48 - ID#207145)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 29 1998 10:51 - ID#384350)
mozel, Winston_A, Belize
Mozel, you mentioned Granada. Did you mean the Carribean island of GRENADA, or somewhere else.

Winston, as to Belize, my mother visited there once on holiday and said it was beautiful.

On the other hand, I have heard it is a back-water dump, and most people wouldn't enjoy living there. Kenneth Dart, a US expat took up nationality and residence in Belize and then tried to get back to the US as an ambassador in FLA, where his wife and children were living. The US wouldn't allow it. Obviously he didn't care much for Belize.

The white population is under 1%. In the past there has been some hostilities towards whites, but that may be changing in the multi-ethic society. The populace consists of Blacks, mestizo's ( many that fled the dirty wars in El Salvador, Nicaragua ) , Hindus, Chinese, Arabs. I have also heard that black Belizians weren't welcome in a neighbouring country, where they were thought of as troublemakers.

Belize is thought to be one of the most corrupt govts in Latin America, and has a history of issuing illegal passports to shady individuals, as well as legal passport programs which have been rescinded and then brought back.

I think you have the right idea though in moving to a relatively poorer non-AngloSaxon country, where you might be left alone by big brother. Also, a country that wouldn't be too affected by the crash of world equity markets. I think if enough of us with similar interests moved to some place together, it would be quite pleasant. Heck,if we moved to some tiny nation and got nationality, we might be able to vote in our own govt.

Do keep us informed on what you find.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 10:52 - ID#212323)
Allow me to shed some light on your question to Tolerant1 in his absence... The Leo he was referring to was likely Leo Kottke, a musician/singer that Tol is quite fond of. Perhaps he promised to mail you a cd or two?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:53 - ID#238422)
John Disney
My brother, my teachers in school told me that
Russia is the richest country in the world, I mean
( Junior correctly specified ) in natural resorces and
vodka producing capability. It was a long time ago,
and they had no way of knowing about current miners strike...

O.K., let's blame my teachers, I say RSA in richer.
But you guys over there do not have oil reserves...
although I always feel that SA chocolate is the best.
You guys also suffer from shortage of real pickles...

Did we get even now?

In regard to cold fusion - I know nothing about it.
I've seen the story about cold fusion in low-budget
Hollywood movie, which made me suspicious that cold
fusion is a product of a screen writter....You know
how serious the screen writter can be. It could be
something that will work in 25 years from now, who
knows, but can this "cold fusion" rumor support
prices for palladium NOW which is absolutely overpriced?
Looks like Another story to me...

(Fri May 29 1998 10:53 - ID#286230)
Don't know which comes first but when the eggs and chicken are both sizzling it time to look to selling.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:55 - ID#207145)
You nail em. Dead on with funds,
holding 30%, just in case youre not totally right. Buy points on the chart are usually accurate. Oil is going up. Drawdowns are inevitable when Joe sixpack hits the road with massive funds, and the Nino doesn't let the screen door hit him in the ass.

(Fri May 29 1998 10:56 - ID#33024)
gold: Elliot waves analysis (update)

(Fri May 29 1998 10:56 - ID#268260)
(Midas Re: Pegasus Gold)
Your 8 AM report on Pegasus Gold indicates that the company may go belly up and that shareholders will own worthless shares. A recent check on the stock price shows an $.11 slide in its value this morning. Since North American gold mining companies seldom go bankrupt, could this be a time to accumulate this nearly worthless stock ( current price $.35/share ) and hope that by the deadline of the restructuring gold moves above $300/oz?

(Fri May 29 1998 10:56 - ID#342315)
Trinovant re your 10:19
Joe Sixpack could be a major factor. Your post followed a tv short I saw about Mcdonalds and beanies. This is a major retail channel. Suppose I could talk merchandising mgr into doing the same thing with small gold coins as the beanies. A wake up call!? A 5 grain coin ( .01 oz ) would be about 1 cm d and at todays prices minting and au would cost something less than $5. It is big enough to make a "splash" at 999.95. I have made one and you can't bend it with ordinary fingers. If you get the idea, I would like a response + or --. Thanx , Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 10:59 - ID#23941)
Russian Gold sales
Don't be surprised if Russia does sell some or all of their gold, as they only have a $12 billion reserve at the moment and gold accounts for $4 billion of that ( approx 400t ) .

If they are going to continue defending their currancy, $8 billion won't last long, ( unless the IMF steps in ) .

If Russia does sell gold, it won't be good for the POG.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:00 - ID#342315)
Aragon111 you're right
Boy, I don't know how I forgot that. I appreciate you jogging a "pre" alzheimrs memory! I guess it' too much Kitco, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 11:00 - ID#43185)
Ha!Ha! Well put.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:02 - ID#43185)
I kind of liked the idea of a millenium
gold I heard a while back. I wonder what
ever became of that.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:03 - ID#208393)
C$ Up US$ Down
Gold SHOULD move UP.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:06 - ID#207145)
Smart money selling into strength today.
Dow lost big gains as programs picked Joe sixpacks pockets.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:09 - ID#225273)
Market Commments
To all:

I'm just back from New York. The two most interesting comments I heard at the Mining Conference were Adrian Day's brave recommendation to BUY the Asian markets.
And Bob Bishop talked about the exploration mining stocks. He said: "Our business is always feast or famine. We're now in a famine and it's worse than anything I've seen in the 15 years I've done my newsletter. And we don't know how long it will last."

That was FYI.

This week's newsletter from David Marantette, cycle analyst from Hanlei, Hawaii, begins: "There is a gold bottom projected by the daily cycle chart for May 31. This would give us a 10-20-40-day cycle bottom which is often a point for a good short term trade."

In my mind, the breakdown of the uptrend line is a very bad sign for gold and the gold shares. Also, silver's new low today is a bad sign for that market. We may get a rally in here, but I'll have to see some good signs before I think we're going substantially higher.

I've been away from my charts and it's hard to follow the markets while away from home, even when you're at a mining investment conference. So, I'll look at everything more closely as the days wears on and have more later.

Old Gold -- I liked your post about the Cross of Greenbacks. It was perfect.

The Preacher

(Fri May 29 1998 11:11 - ID#207145)
seasonals, russia, market conditions, asia, say gold goes down in June.
Hope I'm wrong, but i,m not stepping up to the plate anywhere, till buy point on drillers comes to me. Then will take a look at gold, but not soon.

Strad Master
(Fri May 29 1998 11:12 - ID#250297)
Belated thanks (my server went down)
MIRO: To pick up a thread from yesterday... Thanks for the Y2K assesment. That was exactly the information I thought an experienced and reasoned mind would provide. Basically, if I understand you correctly, it's 'prepare a bit and then deal with what happens'. As with life. As I suspected. Muchas Gracias!

(Fri May 29 1998 11:14 - ID#358318)
Beanies and other "collectibles" work because they have individual
designs, and some are particularly rare. Kids might just sell coins
for cash at at loss at the first opportunity. How would you
individualise the coins? Individual pressing? This is done in
limited sets for soccer team nickel coins. Maybe a flat surface on one
side embossed with individual holograms? I don't have much of an
opinion on whether this would be successful. Perhaps you need to
talk it through with the marketing manager.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:15 - ID#207145)
Asia and Gold= same play
If you don't like Asia, then stay the hell out of gold. They are the same play. Gold wont come back till asia does.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:19 - ID#342315)
Gollum re millenium coin
I wonder too. I think it was a move by WGC, but not sure. Maybe they are working it out. Sometning like that takes a bunch of resources and sophistucated equipment, which is available in those quarters. My idea can be implimented with an independent minter and less resources. If it works, the providers would make about $1 per coin, but volume would be substantial. It's an idea to bring recognition of gold to the "crowds". Sometimes, awareness overcomes ignorance = sparks. Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 11:20 - ID#207145)
Even my oil drilling play is influenced by Asia.

Energy returns will be hurt by Asia. The CRB has been killed by Asia. Asia, Asia, Asia. I'm sisk of it.

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri May 29 1998 11:20 - ID#284170)
Latest Larouche Musings. Situation Not amusing

May 28, 1998. Interviewer: Tony Papert

EIR: Welcome to EIR Talks. It's Thursday, May 28, 1998. My name is Tony Papert. And with me is EIR Counterintelligence director, Jeff Steinberg. We're going to be discussing today largely the outbreak of the second phase of the world economic breakdown crisis, which has happened, as Lyndon LaRouche predicted, now as we near the end of the second quarter of 1998.

Most spectacularly, Russia was hit over last week into yesterday, and even as we're sitting here today. What's going on in Russia, Jeff?

JEFF STEINBERG: The situation has blown up over the course of the last week, in particular. Of course, this is not something brand new, it's not something unpredicted. For a period of the last several months, there's been a steady decline in the Russian stock market; it's lost approximately 45% of its value since the beginning of the year. Of course, to put that in perspective, the entire value of the Moscow stock market is about a billion dollars less than the value of the Walt Disney Corporation, so that, in and of itself, is not yet a major factor.

But it's an indication of flight capital out of Russia, pressure for yet another ruble devaluation. The country is broke, and what we're seeing in the past week, is a reflection of the fact that Russia is going under very rapidly. And that has extraordinary political and social implications for the entire world.

Russia is not a banana republic. It's still the nation with the second largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world. It's the country that up until 1991, was clearly ranked as the world's second leading superpower. So, events in Russia are going to have cataclysmic consequences everywhere.

So what are we seeing now?

Just this past week, we had the phenomenon of the Russian government issuing secured state bonds, which are called GKOs. They issued two-year bonds. There were no takers because nobody's willing to invest in Russia for such a ``long'' duration of time as two years. So, last week, there was a successful auction of several billion dollars worth of 6 and 12 month GKO bonds. At that point, the rate that the Russian government was paying, was between 45 and 46 percent interest.

This week, with the effort to sell a new issuing of GKO bonds, the rate went up to 80% several days ago; and yesterday the Russian government announced that short-term interest rates on interbank lending was now to be up at 150%.

Now, obviously, if secured government bonds have to offer 80% per annum interest rates to get any takers, you've got a kind of wide recognition that this is a situation that is completely out of control. The Russian government has been stitching together a hand-to-mouth hour by hour strategy for generating revenues in the context of a completely collapsed physical economy, to be able to meet basic obligations -- to keep the government's doors open, and of course, a big aspect of that is paying off many months of wage arrears to pensioners, to government employees, etc.

In the private sector, we had the phenomenon over the last couple of weeks, of the two major rail lines going into the Siberia region, the Trans-Siberian railroad and a second line, being shut down by striking coal miners, who were joined by other workers, including scientific workers, schoolteachers, in protest over months of wage arrears, and no clear sign of any competent economic solution from the Russian government back in Moscow. Those strikes ended, simply on the basis of the Russian government saying that this was posing a grave national security threat, and putting a certain amount of combination of cajoling, pressure, throwing a little bit of money at the situation, but it was merely a temporary staving off of the potential for a big nationwide strike wave.

Now, what's happened in the last 24 hours, is that there was hope that one of the big state sector oil companies, Rosnest, would be able to sell 75% of its government-held stock, and it was expected to generate about $2.1 billion in short-term revenue, to basically throw some cash at the immediate crisis. That failed. There were no bidders at the rate that the Russian government was asking, and as of this morning, a new offering is being put out, which represents about a 30% reduction in the price value that's being asked on these stocks.

So, you've got international investors standing around like vultures, waiting to drive down the price of these basically primary national assets, that were key parts of the economy during the Soviet period, buying them up at 5, 10, 20 cents on the dollars, because of the desperation of the Russian situation.

So, this is the general direction that we're moving in. There's a few things probably I should say, after the break, on the kinds of discussion taking place inside the Russian cabinet over the last 24 hours.

EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, and with me is EIR Counterintelligence Director Jeffrey Steinberg, who, when we ended the last segment, he was about to begin to discuss the considerations going on inside the Russian government, as the country is hit by the world economic breakdown.

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, what happened in the last 24 hours again, is that there were a series of emergency meetings at the highest levels of the Russian government. On Thursday, President Yeltsin met with Prime Minister Kiriyenko, with the Finance Minister, with the head of the Central Bank, and they came out of that meeting basically saying that President Yeltsin would be making a series of telephone calls to President Clinton, to Chancellor Kohl of Germany, and other world leaders, basically, as he put it, asking them for ``moral support.'' So on the one side, Yeltsin is saying, we are committed to making sure that all steps are taken to prevent a total collapse of the Russian stock market, a complete collapse of the economy, of forced devaluation of the ruble, and all sorts of other horrendous economic consequences.

He said, on the one hand, we will not be asking the United States, Germany, and other allies, for emergency financing, but on the other hand, he's clearly looking for some kind of major international intervention, to prevent the Russian situation from completely blowing up.

After that meeting, with took place during the day on Wednesday, the 27th of May, there was a series of late night meetings that Prime Minister Kiriyenko had, with four of the top Russian bank presidents, and we don't know the content of that meeting, but clearly there are just emergency, scrambling kinds of actions being undertaken, to prevent the Russia situation from completely blowing out of control.

Now, Russia is, of course, part of Europe, And so, today, the entire European financial press is filled with dire warnings about the entire global financial system, blowing sky-high, unless something is done to prevent the Russia situation from getting out of control. So, to say that the mood in Europe, and all of the financial capitals right at this moment, is one of panic and pandemonium, would be an understatement.

This is, of course, a situation that has grave implications for other parts of the world as well. It's been pointed out in some of the news coverage today, that between Brazil and South Korea alone, you have about 45% of the entire outstanding Russian GKO holdings. So, what occurs in Russia -- financial turbulences, default on these sovereign state debts -- should that occur, this would have immediate repercussions in the Brazil situation, that I believe we discussed last week.

As the Russian stock market has been steadily collapsing for the past several weeks, Brazil has been going down, and the publications in Brazil make the clear link between the two situations. In South Korea, that situation -- I guess we'll get to talk about it in a moment -- is also grave, going into a whole new phase of escalation.

EIR: Yes, the crisis continues to unroll in Asia, in Japan, in Indonesia, and in South Korea. Could you address that?

JEFF STEINBERG: Yes. Again, at the beginning of the year -- I think you mentioned this right at the top of the show --Lyndon LaRouche said that there would be a Phase Two of the Asia crisis, the contagion that would spread way beyond Asia, that would hit during the second fiscal quarter of this year, and would be far more severe than the crisis that hit in the final quarter of 1997, when, if you remember, Korea came literally days away from declaring sovereign default. This would have had profound repercussions in the Japan situation.

So now, here we are, precisely as LaRouche said, nearing the end of the second fiscal quarter of 1998. We've had at least an interim, apparent solution to the political crisis in Indonesia, with the transition under constitutional provisions, from the Suharto presidency to the Habibie presidency -- and the new president has announced plans for general elections within 6 months, a number of things which have cooled out the immediate social crisis on the streets of Indonesia, which cost billions of dollars in damage through several days of looting, and other kinds of rioting, and other disasters there.

But really, on the economic and financial front, nothing has been really solved. The situation in Japan is that the value of the Japanese yen is falling. There are conflicting reports of a statement made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Rubin at the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference meeting in Vancouver over the weekend, -- perhaps we can take that up after the next break. But this is another indication that Asia is still a major focal point of the disaster.

EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, and with me is EIR Counterintelligence Director Jeffrey Steinberg, who's about to discuss the response of U.S. Treasury Secretary Rubin to the financial disaster unrolling in Japan.

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, there was a meeting over the weekend in Vancouver, British Columbia, of the finance ministers of the member countries of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Forum, which is the United States, several Latin American countries, and most of the countries of the ASEAN-Japan. And this is an informal kind of forum, it's not the kind of body that comes together to make formal policy pronouncements, or to set any kind of major new initiatives, but it's a kind of discussion group, where, frankly, you get a significant amount of opportunity for blunt discussion.

We don't yet have the formal text of Rubin's remarks. It's not clear whether they're actually was a formal text that will be released by Treasury. But there were some news accounts indicating that Rubin said that he's gravely concerned about the situation in Japan, which, after all, is the second largest economy in the world. It's going through a severe economic recession. Domestic sales are way down. Japanese exports, which significantly go into the Southeast Asia area, which, as we've been discussing, has been clobbered by this phase two crisis. You've got collapse of currency and stock markets, systematically. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines -- and these countries are the bread and butter of the Japanese export market, at least in terms of Asia.

So, the Japanese economy is in terrible shape. They're cutting back on production. They're finding that they're building up uncontrollable large stockpiles, inventories, of things from consumer goods, all the way from computers up to automobiles. So, it's a mess. And therefore what Treasury Secretary Rubin is purported to have said, is that, if it takes a substantial fall in the value of the yen against the dollar, to enable Japanese exports to become competitive again, in these crisis-driven markets in Southeast Asia, then that may have to be something that's acceptable. Because the alternative, of a full-scale economic breakdown crisis in Japan, is that the whole global system blows.

Now, it's not clear whether the quotes which appeared in U.S. News and World Report in one of their columns -- and was then picked up in Reuters and other wire services -- is accurate or not. However, one can for certain, that Treasury Secretary Rubin, other high-ranking officials of the Clinton administration, are aware of the systemic nature of the crisis, are very concerned that Japan is the potential trigger for the entire global financial blowout. So, whether the quote is accurate or not, the general concept of the level of concern about Japan, is clearly there. This was a topic of discussion when the G-8 finance ministers met in London earlier this month, just before the Birmingham heads of state summit.

So, you look at the global map, again. Europe -- all of the ranking financial figures, all of the leading financial press, is absolutely hysterical over the potential global blowout implications of the Russian situation. You've got the United States Treasury Secretary, in one form or another, accurately reflecting concern that Japan is a major point of vulnerability in all of this, and now we're moving into a situation where this week, there was a two-day general strikes by at least one of the major trade union federations in South Korea. It ended peacefully, but there is a strong likelihood of further strikes in the days ahead, perhaps wildcat strikes that could turn violent, as they did two years ago.

The issue there is the IMF conditionalities. The fact is, that the IMF demanded as a condition for the bailout loans at the end of last year, that the Korean government begin the process of eliminating the situation of guaranteed lifetime employment. Now there is no other social safety net system in South Korea. They don't have a social security structure, as we've had here in the United States since the great depression of the 1930s. So the South Korea situation is one in which, if you begin a policy of systematically laying workers off, and were expecting unemployment rates in the immediate period ahead of well over officially 10-11% -- and we know that there's a lot of fudge in those official statistics, and generally, the actual unemployment rate is substantially higher -- you throw people out on the street with no social safety programs, which used to be informally handled through these industrial associations, these chaebols, you've got the makings of an existential crisis.

So, that's the backdrop to these trade union struggles. And therefore, the principal issue on the table here, is that the policies of the International Monetary Fund have been a major contributing factor in our now moving into this far more devastating second phase of the global financial breakdown crisis. So, the IMF, in a sense, is throwing oil on a burning fire, through these kinds of policies, and South Korea's going to blow up. We already saw the consequences of the IMF recipes for economic and financial stability in the case of Indonesia. The place was practically burned to the ground.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:21 - ID#347235)
Speed, All
I am appalled that the SEC would even consider allowing stocks to be bought on credit cards!!!!!!! Only a complete IDIOT would do such a thing! One of the major problems this country has is unsecured debt,mostly on credit cards. I dont use them I have an American Express card I got 25 years ago. I ONLY USE IT AS A CONVENIENCE WHEN I TRAVEL in Europe. You are not allowed to run a balance,it must be paid off when you recieve the bill. I would not consider credit for a purchase smaller then as House. Ihave paid cash for every car I ever bought even though none of them have been NEW I have found that a two year old car is the best buy anyway. I sincerely hope that the dont approve that silly idea.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:24 - ID#207145)
Russia's trouble is Asia too. Oil exports not bringing in Rubles.
Russian collapse due in large part to low price of oil. Driving season a little late for Yeltzen, Russkies.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:28 - ID#207145)
Another pleasant thought$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Russia has more reserves to sell.....Nuclear Warheads atop HUGE ICBMs. Gees.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 11:28 - ID#209265)
HighRise - the guy who suggested the Plunge Protection Team
The Plunge Protection Team idea was the creation of a certain Robert Heller, who was a Federal Reserve Governor during the Bush era. He recommended this in 1989, and publicised the idea in an article in the Oct. 27, 1989, issue of the Wall St. Journal. He made it all sound so reasonable in his article- a way to add liquidity to the markets without triggering general inflation ( just asset inflation, but he didn't talk about that. )

The idea was first used by George Bush during the 1992 election, when he used discretionary slush money from the Currency Stabilization Fund to intervene in the stock market by buying S&P 500 futures contracts. Bush was just as aware as Clinton that it was "the economy, stupid!"

Clinton did the same thing during the '96 election, and the efforts of the PPT were particularly obvious during the almost-crash that occurred in Oct. '97. I'm sure either Murphy's Law ot the Law of Unintended Consequences will get these PPT guys sooner or later, though.

- Steve

(Fri May 29 1998 11:29 - ID#174239)
Chas: Beanie Baby Coins
Chas and Trinovant,

Silver tarnishes with many different colors in environments of different temperatures and chemicals. Perhaps this could be done intentionally, but randomly to produce an infinite variety of uniquely colored coins.

I once heard of someone who found a small box of several silver coins that had been stored in an Dynamite shed for decades. I didn't see them, but supposedly they had amazing patterns of all the colors.

The art of chemically colouring metal is called Patinization.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:30 - ID#347235)
Sad News
CNN annouced just now that a truely great american SEN Barry Goldwater is dead.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:30 - ID#342315)
JTF re your 7:26
I think you have hit on something here. They ( PPT ) will do anything necessary to keep staus quo. Unfortunately I don't have sites nec to track base metal derivatives, price and quantity, but I pulled down LME charts on copper, lead, zinc and aluminum. They are all at about 2 year lows, not far from 7 yr lows, and most patterns are roughly similar. It may take an RJ or a DA to bring in derivatives. It looks like weak longs have been shook. Any further comments or ideas on this would be appreciated Charlie

Mike Stewart
(Fri May 29 1998 11:30 - ID#270253)
Random Thoughts
1. The strongest period for the S&P, by far, is the from the low in the Mid-term election year ( 1998 ) to the next Presidential election. This will be strange this time around as we are already at such lofty levels. Perhaps we will have a big hit this fall?

2. The ratio of the 3 month average price of gold divided by the 12 month average price of gold is a useful very long term trend indicator. In major bears, this ratio usually gets below .9 or 90%. This time it hit .91. A rise above .95, and then 1.00 is a good long term indicator of a major shift. We have moved from .91 to a level of .97 and rising.

3. I like monthly charts, and use TC2000 from Worden Bros. We hit the lower monthly band on their WG580 gold index a couple of days ago and have bounced. So far, this is encouraging.

That's all for today.

Strad Master
(Fri May 29 1998 11:34 - ID#250297)
Credit! Gimmie, Gimmie, Gimmie...
RETIRED SOLDIER: Permitting credit card purchases of stocks would only be the latest stupitity engendered by this mania. There are Home Loans for up to 125% of the value of the house and even a bond that matures in 1000 years. The financial world has gone mad!

(Fri May 29 1998 11:39 - ID#207145)
I remember the low life "daisy picking ad by Lyndon Baines As*ho*e
Then Johnson proceeded to start all out WAR, which he lost.Talk about getting what you asked for!. We war AttackeD, this monin in the guf o Tonkin, and now lets really start a war!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Barry Goldwater was destroyed by a warmonger.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:41 - ID#208393)
Silver 3.97 Down 1.10 - did u see it?
I find it amazing that Bart still has not found someone to fix the silver posting bug in the top frame. It's been going on for at least 1.5 months. This does not portend well for y2k. On the other hand, maybe he is sending us a signal of future price as he did three weeks ago.

(Fri May 29 1998 11:52 - ID#342315)
J re coins
Good idea. I am wide open. There are many chemical and metallurgical methods to color gold and silver. Do you know about the colored gold from the Black Hills? Some of this could be easily incorporated, but too much could raise the cost. My original thought was that "pure" gold was enough to spark some interest. I guess I'll have to call the man at Mcdonalds. Thanx. There's one thing I know, if enough Kitco people approach this, a damn good product would come about. Thanx, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 11:53 - ID#20136)
Date: Fri May 29 1998 03:39
jims ( To RJ and Goose ) ID#252391:


jims you are right. The year started off with total comex gold at and around 442,636 ounces ( January 22, 1998 ) . Yesterday total comex gold was at 1,077,321 ounces, 2.4 times its Januaary 22 level. Eligible is around 1.7 times its January level ( even though it was getting quite close to the same level with the 172,000 ounce drop two days ago. Remember they added 99,895 ounces yesterday to the eligible stocks.

As Arden pointed out there is a lot of pushing and pulling going on right now.

A very important game is being played out. USG power versus the world. As has been said many times, the USG isn't going to give up. All or nothing for them. Will the world submit to the NEW WORLD imperialism that the USG has instituted with its fiat reserve currency or will they revolt and move away the USdollar to local reserve currencies like the EURO and YEN?

I won't pretend to know the final answer, but it is not possible for me to believe that the countries of the world will submit to becoming the low cost labor force and suppliers to the USG printing presses. With the USdollar as strong as it is, the U.S. can not compete in selling any goods or services worldwide or even within the U.S. borders. They only rule supreme in currency based businesses ( IMF, derivatives, Wall Street, Banks, loans, debt,... ) . Smells like trouble to me. What will Japan do when it takes one usdollar to buy all the real estate in Tokyo?? Sell and bow or revolt and unite with their Asian brothers and sisters and no longer trade in U.S. based instruments??


(Fri May 29 1998 11:53 - ID#224267)
thanks Steve, for a "dose of reality" post on the true state of the world economy. USA is living in an arrogant illusion of immunity. Methinks that will cease eventually when the repercussions of global economic breakdown home home to US to roost!

Cage Rattler
(Fri May 29 1998 11:54 - ID#33184)
Gold mines are consolidating and should be less risky but less exciting in future

If you know what a "gold bug" is, you're probably part of the older investment generation and, like US investment guru Warren Buffet, do not understand IT stocks.

Gold bugs these days are an endangered species, but the past six months have shown there is still money to be made out of much-maligned gold shares.

Remember November last year? The gold price had collapsed under the combined assault of the Asian crisis and market paranoia over bullion sales by central banks.

Gold shares wilted to 12-month lows, with heavyweights like Vaal Reefs - now Anglogold - dropping to R166 from a high of R237 while marginal producers such as Durban Deep melted to 725c from R40,25.

The gold price had plunged to 12-year lows in the mid-US$270/oz bracket and the prevailing view was that gold was history. It was a barbaric relic of an earlier, unsophisticated investment era - so good riddance and RIP.

Oh yeah? I don't have the space to get into a debate on the investment merits and demerits of gold, but anyone believing gold no longer has a role to play is wearing rose-tinted economic spectacles and is not Malaysian or Indonesian.

If you write off gold, then you believe the Dow Jones index will never crash, the world will have no more economic hiccups and everybody will live happily ever after. Perhaps you also believe in the tooth fairy.

Still, it was a brave analyst in December last year who bucked conventional wisdom, put his head on the block and suggested gold shares were a screaming buy - which hindsight shows they were.

One who did was Rice Rinaldi Turner analyst Tony Cadle. Another was Fedsure Asset Management research head Nic Goodwin. Look what happened. The gold price bounced back over $300 and the gold stocks reacted by several orders of magnitude.

Vaal Reefs hit R237 in February and carried on up to R272 at present. But it was the marginal, hand-to-mouth operations that really performed.

Durban Deep doubled from 725c in November to 1595c at present and Randfontein went from 630c to 1550c over the same period. Star performer is tiny, developing mine Kalahari Goldridge ( Kalgold ) , which has gone up ninefold from 24c in November to 219c now.

Debates over the future of gold and the restructuring of the SA gold industry aside, there was a pressing reason for buying during December - dja vu; the gold boards have done this before.

According to Cadle, the previous bull run in gold shares started in November 1992 from a low of 769 on the JSE All Gold index, when the gold price was at $335/oz. The index then took off, to peak initially at 2098 at the end of July 1993, when the gold price was $395/oz.

This time around, the index is not doing nearly as well, rising from a low of 663 last December but, so far, stuck in the 1000-1100 bracket. That's because the recovery trend in the gold price is not clear-cut.

If you are looking for a rule of thumb, the experience of the past decade is that at All Gold index levels below 1000, gold shares are probably a buy and at index levels above 2000 they are probably a sell.

The reason the marginal producers initially outperform the quality shares like Vaal Reefs in a rising gold market is that their fortunes are more closely attuned to the gold price.

The marginals have higher cost structures and the rising gold price has a greater proportional effect on their bottom-line earnings. The converse applies in a falling market, where the marginal mines' revenues are eroded faster than those of the quality mines, which are protected by their lower cost structures.

A complicating factor is the level of gold hedging the mine may have done to lock in future gold revenues by selling forward some of its expected gold production.

Broadly speaking, that protects the mine against falling gold prices but means it does not get the full benefit of a rising gold price.

Kalgold is marginal in that it is battling to break even as it completes a capital expansion programme to secure its medium-term life. The mine does not sell gold forward, so it gets the full benefit of any rise in the gold price. That's why the share price has rocketed.

Choosing an SA gold share used to be complicated because of the large number of mines with differing lives, depths, cost structures and risk profiles.

That has been radically altered by the shakeout over the past two years, as the SA mining houses have restructured to emulate international gold leaders Barrick and Placer Dome, which wholly own their operating mines.

So, instead of puzzling over the relative merits of Anglovaal producers Loraine, Hartebeestfontein, Target and ET Cons, investors now have one choice - Avgold.

Likewise, Beatrix, Oryx and Kloof have disappeared into Gold Fields Ltd and Vaal Reefs, Western Deep Levels, Freegold, Joel and Elandsrand will soon vanish into Anglogold.

These enlarged operations should deliver steadier and more reliable earnings growth over a sustained period, smoothing out the swings in the fortunes of the individual mines.

The cost to investors is they are no longer able to invest directly in select quality performers such as Beatrix - the lowest-cost producer in the industry - or Target, which will develop Anglovaal's Sun and Oribi projects.

Whereas investors a few years ago had more than 30 gold mine shares to choose from, soon there'll be only about 10 gold producers listed on the JSE, barring any subsequent new listings.

Anglogold looks the pick of the quality, focused gold groups. GFL has a lot of catching-up to do and Avgold's focus over the next few years is to develop Target.

JCI Gold, run by industry maverick Brett Kebble, is viewed generally as an unknown quantity at present but, properly managed, its Western Areas gold mine is a world-class producer.

Among the marginals, Harmony has been doing all the right things and the decision to keep Randfontein out of JCI leaves this mine available to investors looking for a higher-risk investment choice.

Source: Financial Mail, South Africa

(Fri May 29 1998 11:56 - ID#347235)
Strad Master, Blooper
Strad, you are 100 % right there! I have never used credit except for my house, because my grandfather used to give credit to persons in hid drug store when people could not afford the prescriptions and he went broke. He told me that credit would eventually destroy the country. Too
bad he died 40 years too soon to know he was right.

Blooper, How right you are!

(Fri May 29 1998 12:08 - ID#410198)
Kitkat,don't know where you got that price from...silver currently $5066

(Fri May 29 1998 12:13 - ID#327123)
Just from my own experience, I would not go near PGU, and here is why:

PGU operates as a heap-leach mining company. The environmental cleanup required in N.A. following heap-leach mining is a very expensive proposition. They are in trouble financially, as we all know. If they follow the examples of other mining companies who used heap-leach mining methods and got into financial trouble the envionmental clean up costs will put the final nail in the coffin. Galactic Resources was a good example of what happens. In their case the money got tight and the last place they were going to spend their money was on clean up of the heap-leach operation. They took the money and ran. The stock holders took it in the shorts. I got lucky and bailed out near the top.

I hope this helps to balance your investment thoughts on PGU. I think

Randgold, Durban Deep or Harmony are far superior places for your money.

Strad Master
(Fri May 29 1998 12:13 - ID#250297)
Credit Cards
RETIRED SOLDIER: Me too! While I may be an fool when it comes to investing, I have always known that credit was equal to financial suicide. I have a VISA which I use as you do your AmEx card. Never owed a penny on it. Bought our cars outright and the only thing we owe on is the house. Even that we are paying off faster than the mortgage terms stipulate. When I was a kid and tried to get a Bankamericard ( I needed it for travelling ) , I had to first go to Sears and get a Sears credit card. Then I bought a belt ( that I didin't really need ) and delayed its payment one month to establish a credit history. Once that was done I could apply for the real crediot ( like credulous idiot ) card and I tore up the Sears card. Now, I have a long spotless credit history and an enormous credit limit. I could probably borrow a million bucks on my Platinum card if I wanted to. ( Wish it were real platinum! ) Now, getting credit is so easy, every shmoe on his way out of Bankruptsy court is solicited to sign up. Even my 7 year old has received solicitations. It's nuts!!!

(Fri May 29 1998 12:20 - ID#215235)
Thanks for your thoughts on Pegasus Gold. The stock price continues to drop. It is now about $.30/share. Looks like a bailout by the shareholders. I already own some shares of Pegasus and hope there is a blip up into which I can undload them. GO GOLD!

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 12:21 - ID#212323)
I enjoyed reading your 11:53 and am comforted with the knowledge that I am not alone in my thinking.

(Fri May 29 1998 12:24 - ID#338228)
Have you had a chance to read USA Gold's daily commentary? they are looking for someone who could provide a link on eligible and ineligible gold stocks

(Fri May 29 1998 12:26 - ID#153102)
@Into The Night
For Immediate Release June 6, 1994
- - - - - - -

By the authority vested in me as President by the
Constitution and the laws of the United States of America,
including the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended ( 64
Stat. 798; 50 U.S.C. App. 2061, et seq. ) , and section 301 of
title 3, United States Code, and as Commander in Chief of the
Armed Forces of the United States, it is hereby ordered as

[going off the chart.]

(Fri May 29 1998 12:28 - ID#342315)
Trinovant collectibles
I'm sure your right about "merchandise", but I still think "pure" gold can carry some weight on its own. I know the beanies are sold and traded, but if something catches, it's a mad rush. I guess I'll have to call the man to see what he thinks. There are a number of ways to "individualise the coins without introducing too much cost. Colors, different designs and some few larger sizes could be covered by the volume involved if it works. What makes it possible is the volume potential. Dies are not cheap, but when volume comes in they are a much smaller cost. Thanx for the comments. Like I said to J , if it appears possible to Mkt mgr, there's enogh brains at Kitco to smooth out a lot of problems. I am familiar with minting and have some good independent sources. Like to hear more. Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 12:28 - ID#22956)
Gold is a buy June 1....or 2.....according to one seasonal that I watch.......Buy 6/1 hold 'till 7/1....or thereabouts......and you will be a winner 75% of the time.... ( avg prof=14.5, avg loss=23.00 ) ( ugh ) ......but then again 25% it lost and gold is pretty anemic right about now. uh huh.

The same source said that Can$ is also a buy at beginning June and hold till beginning week of July for 77.8% correctness..... ( avg prof=.66, avg loss=1.19 ) ( ugh ) ......... ( Sheller Disclaimer aptly applies ) ..........uh huh.

Don't Gold and CAN$ run amuck together?? Or so it seems........hmmmmmm...

away...................... ( ohmy )


i wouldn't hang my hat on this fwiw.........

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 29 1998 12:29 - ID#384350)
For those of you interested in Numbers
1998 divided by 3 is 666. Perhaps something special is in store for the 6th hour of the 6th day of the 6th month of 1998.

Also on May 5, 2000, most of the planets in the solar system will be alligned. LLoyds of London is trying to assess the risks involved of this planetary allignment, as to Tidal waves, hurricanes, earthquakes. I wouldn't rule out Polar shift, either.

(Fri May 29 1998 12:30 - ID#194311)
six months in a leaky boat
just trying to keep it afloat

russians shipping is leaking
all over platinum's fire

How corrupt is our world?
the ex-Prime minister of England, Lady Thatcher
sits on the board of Tiger Fund,
overseeing crooked deals and money changing shenanigans.

What hope for honest Labour?

(Fri May 29 1998 12:39 - ID#153102)
@New America
Executive Orders


Office of the Press Secretary
( Birmingham, England )

For Immediate Release

May 14, 1998



By the authority vested in me as President by the
Constitution and the laws of the United states of America, and in
order to guarantee the division of governmental responsibilities,
embodied in the Constitution, between the Federal Government and
the States that was intended by the Framers and application of
those principles by the Executive departments and agencies in the
formulation and implementation of policies, it is hereby ordered
as follows:

[Here follows the guidelines for the governance of New America. This E.O. was not perhaps issued in England by coincidence. As there is a devious legal purpose served in the USG secretly acknowledging a debt to the Crown.]

(Fri May 29 1998 12:40 - ID#408236)
@ ALL: WE ARE GOING INTO A MASSIVE DEFLATION: In 1929 the 800 richest families in the U.S. had
amassed a total ownership of 36% of all the wealth. That is to say, 1% of the US population had accumulated 36% of all wealth. This they placed in land, art, and paper. Such a small number of consumers could not possible spend all this lucre on mere goods and services. Because of this massive withdrawl of liquidity, the consumer-driven economy tanked,
prices fell and the downward spiral was on.

So what you say?

That 1% of ultra-rich Americans now own 37% of all the wealth.
Have a happy depression.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 12:41 - ID#212323)
Kiwi... "What hope for honest Labour?"
Immediately exchange all disposable paper income for gold...every honest laborer...worldwide... Then stop laboring for paper.

But then, that would be too easy.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 12:42 - ID#209265)
OPinion on Miramar
What do you folks know about Miramar ( TSE:MAE ) I heard they had improved results at a property in Latin America, but don't know much beyond that. Do you think it might be a good buy @ $2.15?

Also trying to get opinions on Virginia Gold mines ( MSE:VIA ) which I think has a producing mine in Quebec, and Breat Basin Gold ( VSE:GBG ) which I think is prospecting in Nevada.

ThanQ in advance for all help & advice.


( BTW- do these companies have websites? )

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 12:43 - ID#209265)
Oops . . .
A typo: iwas looking for info on Great Basin Gold . . .


(Fri May 29 1998 12:43 - ID#252127)
Prime Investors Pan Takeover Bid

The fight for justice is taking place, this from the the Vancouver Sun

If this doesn't work, go to with the other trappins, at index and scroll to business and scroll down.

(Fri May 29 1998 12:46 - ID#410198)
Gianni out for those leprechaun' the way WH is rolling out the RED carpet for
Jerry ( RED ) Adams today

(Fri May 29 1998 12:46 - ID#373284)
But I have been going insane the past week or so. It is me MUMS Nativity week and the planet has been arriving and calling and AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, however, it is a wonderful time, 78, and stronger than ever...........................................................................................................................gave gold to a three year old for her college fund, met a lovely Lady who had friends arriving from Seattle...gave her a coin to give as a gift...and the Jamaican fella was so kind to me and Mia, so I gave him gold as well...everyone is a peasant and I am every peasants SERVANT...LIFE IS SO VERY WORTH LIVING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

(Fri May 29 1998 12:47 - ID#347235)
Mozel, Strad
You are allways alluding to Executive Orders but not printing them. Yous must know that an Executive order can be overidden by Congress. If the Coward Erect goes too far I am sure that Congress would step into the act.

Strad, Would like to talk to you offline as I do with several others
pls contact

(Fri May 29 1998 12:47 - ID#43185)
There are great similaritys between 98
and 29. Financial ruins overseas, a
paralyzed Fed, great percentage of the
wealth owned by small percentage of the
populace. Many look at all the spending
power currently floating around and say
deflation can't happen today. Well, there
was a lot floating around in 28 and 29,
before they pulled the plug....

(Fri May 29 1998 12:47 - ID#174239)
Chas: Colectable gold
Perhaps a customized coin built from a bunch of standard elements. I paid a lot for my 10K gold college ring, but it is a one of a kind.

You could have zodiac symbols, dates, years, names, hobby symbols, event symbols, etc. People could give them as gifts for weddings, graduations, birthdays, valentines day, etc. etc.

I'm suprised Hallmark isn't doing something like this already.

(Fri May 29 1998 12:49 - ID#347235)
Bart they are out again

(Fri May 29 1998 12:51 - ID#43185)
witching hour
Time to keep our eye on the metals. The
afternoon witching hour approacheth...

(Fri May 29 1998 12:52 - ID#338228)
Steve in TO_A
Miramar -- Q1 results released yesterday


(Fri May 29 1998 12:53 - ID#255190)
I work in a hospital. We have CAT and MRI scanners which will not work after y2000. The models we have here account for 500,000 installed units world-wide. Alot to fix on short notice. All cardiac monitoring equipment ( HP ) must be renovated. Hope you are not on life support in a hospital which hasn't dealt with this issue in time .. or in need of life support at a hospital that hasn't yet been able to renovate their equipment and so equipment is not available for you.

The Dutch manfacturer of 70% of the world's insulin supply will be taking its production lines out of service on 12/31/1999. I suspect that many other drug mfrs will do similar things. How long will they be out of production IF there is little to no electricity for them to use, or raw materials ( hyper-pure ingredients they depend upon others to produce for their processes ) .

Air transport will be severly restricted if running at all, so short life span drugs will be in shortage.

You are a well reasoned person. One of the problems I have about your assertion that this is not so bad because 'there will be no deaths directly related to y2000 problems' is kind of like saying that the Titanic didn't kill anyone .. it was the water that did them in.

In my post which related your bent on this business to similar attitudes in IT/IS organizations was to not to say that YOU believe as they do, but that there are similarities in your way of approaching this and theirs. The only problem is that most of the time these organizations ARE NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB. Can you disagree with this???

Fred found, upon looking diligently into his company's systems, that they were extremely vulnerable to y2000. He didn't get that from asking an IT pro at his company. He got that by LOOKING INTO THE CODE. My post to him and those who looked at it was that there is alot more crap under the covers than most people in management know about. And those same managers are the ones who everyone asks "How are we in relationship to Y2000?".

You are right. There will be few deaths directly related to Y2000 software. There will be many deaths due to lack of power, social unrest, governmental impotence, disease caused by malnutrition, hypothermia, disintegration of basic health services, etc, etc, etc. But as for direct deaths, not many. Hopefully this will help everyone sleep better at night knowing that their lifes are not in direct jeapordy.

As far as creating panic "in the populas" I'm one of them, friend. I'm a people. I'd rather see a bit more concern on the part of everyone right now than the sleep walk most people are doing. I doubt that any one here can do anything other than cause blank stares and embrased chuckles from people we could speak to regarding this matter. Fortunately those I have spoken with in my neighborhood have taken it seriously and we will be doing some planning together.

No personal injury intended to you. I disagree with your position.

(Fri May 29 1998 12:55 - ID#338228)
Steve in TO__A
Let's try another one...

and web address is

(Fri May 29 1998 12:58 - ID#338228)
and website URL...

(Fri May 29 1998 12:58 - ID#338228) last try

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri May 29 1998 13:00 - ID#284170)
Russian woes
All eyes on IMF as rouble strikes trouble

(Fri May 29 1998 13:02 - ID#229277)
Gollum: the similarities also include low liquidity in margin accounts and high
derivatives multiples. Differences include the dollar was then backed by gold and the US was a creditor rather than a debtor nation. What impact do you expect these differences to have on the US ecomony in a depression?

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri May 29 1998 13:05 - ID#284170)
prudent thoughts
What I can't work out is how people in the US can't see it coming!!
It is not a matter of if, but when.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:06 - ID#153102)
I didn't take you to raise. Look the Executive Orders up yourself if you want to know anything more than what your local officer in command tells you. They are issued by "Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the United States".

I'm just putting up roadsigns for the civilians who have eyes to read and minds with which to think. None of this really relates to soldiers as they are under orders.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:08 - ID#327123)
Does anyone remember the promoter/geologists name who started Galactic Resources and where he is now. I believe his name was Freidman but I'm not sure. He was a master promoter. Right after he sold out of Galactic so did I because of his past record. Boy, did that prove to be the right thing to do. Galactic left an environmental mess in Colorado that the U.S. taxpayers had to pay for.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:09 - ID#289357)

Here you go:

Have a nice day. There are a lot of these things. ( ;^ ) )

(Fri May 29 1998 13:10 - ID#342315)
J re coins
You have just expande the market. I will get back to after lunch. BTW I just went to get the note I had on the merchandise mgr for Mcdonalds- the damn cat must have eaten it?? ( no joke- she likes to chew on paper ) Anybody got the phone for Mcdonalds HG?? Thanx

(Fri May 29 1998 13:11 - ID#43185)
The dollar not being backed by gold shouldn't
make too much difference except make those that
have em more anxious to save them in a hurry. If
they felt there was a solid backing they could take
more time.

Being a debtor nation rather than a creditor nation
increases the motivation to print our way out. You
can save a lot wealth by paying back debts incurred
by buying things with strong dollars with highly
inflated weak dollars.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:13 - ID#252127)
Selby....United Keno Hill

One of the best silver mines in Canada, they will employ modern mining methods and have indicated their best reserves in years.

This mines never showed much over two years reserves when it mined large ampounts of SILVER FOR OVER 40 YEARS.

UKH paid much for the upkeep of Elsa town infrastucture then and that was a negative to operations.

When they sold UKH; I'm sure at the time they knew that silver was in an oversupply; also feel that they were probably concerned about silvers supply/demand before the silver spike in 79.

A big producer like Falconbridge had other priorities.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:23 - ID#208393)
Got that silver price from the top frame of: which is set to auto update. Every once in awhile it will show a drastic change in the silver price. Sometimes this gets reflected into the chart as a quick spike. It's been an annoying little feature for months now and sometimes gives readers heart attacks. It was CORRECT however in predicting the last downward jog in silver.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:25 - ID#229277)
Steve - Perth: I've thought about that, why they can't see it coming
I've looked at the blank stares of the folks I explain it to and it's like this. If today is a beautiful sunny day, and yesterday was a beautiful sunny day, and the day before that, and the day before that, as far back as anyone can remember, then what might cause you to stop to think about a day, coming soon, when rain is flooding the streets and branches are flying off the trees and lightening is flashing and hitting the ground and starting fires... What kind of depressing person thinks about this on a beautiful day after so many beautiful days just like it? What kind of person hears the thunder rumbling in the distance and says, "It's coming" when everyone else says, "It's just an airplane passing in the distance. It's nothing."

Let's face it. Predicting doom does not endear a person to anyone, especially if you are right. Most folks want to enjoy today as much as they can, face today's stuggles and challenges, and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.

That's ok with me. That's why I can still buy a 3500watt generator for $495.95 at Sears.


(Fri May 29 1998 13:25 - ID#318183)
If rangy had the NERVE to fill the gap at 15/16 ( down from 1 1/2 ) then it better fill the gap at 3

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 13:27 - ID#209265)
rhody - the depression
wasn't caused by rich people withdrawing liquidity. In that phase of the business cycle ( which we're in right now, BTW ) there is always a concentration of wealth, just like we've been seeing since the eighties. Income disparity also grows wider during this phase of the business cycle.

Remember, though, that even though the rich held a larger proportion of the assets in the 20's, the economy had expanded so fast that everyone was wealthier, even if the rich got rich faster. With this newfound wealth created by money supply expansion everyone from the wealthiest banker down to the lowliest shoeshine boy started playing the markets, especially by investing in "investment trusts-" the ancestors of mutual funds.

It was Joseph Kennedy who said that he decided to get out of equities when he found a shoeshine boy on Wall St. ( actually a guy in his twenties ) dispensing advice on stock purchases along with his shines.

In the late 1920's, just like today, there were actually more investment trusts in operation than there were listed stocks on the exchanges of either the US and Canada combined ( history does repeat itself. )

The catastrophic drop demand was caused by: i ) the Crash, which destroyed the life's savings of people across every stratum of society, ii ) misguided protectionist measures, which ended up destroying many jobs, iii ) bank failures, which wiped out the savings of many more people who had never participated in the speculative stock market bubble, iv ) the drought conditions on the prairies which drove many farm families off their land, and exacerbated the problems many small banks were having.

These people, many of them left both with no jobs and no savings to survive, immediately stopped consuming. A sort of survivalist subculture developed of people who were subsisting by consuming almost nothing new. They kept their cars running with scrounged parts and improvised repairs. They got food from charities and leftovers from relatives. Some, like the hoboes, dropped out of mainstream society and lived a homeless lifestyle. You get the flavour of the time from authors like Steinbeck.

Anyhow, the rich didn't withdraw liquidity- in fact many, like the consortium of industrialists who tried to prop up the NYSE with corporate buy-backs tried to prevent the catastophe by adding liquidity. The dam had sprung too many leaks though, and there was no way to stop the deluge once it was underway. Some of these people lost huge amounts of money, but of course, if you've got $600 million and you lose two-thirds of it, you can still live quite well on the remaining $200M. The concept of retirement hadn't been invented yet, but if you had $60,000, it represented quite a comfortable sum of insurance to live on, should you be unable to work. If you were suddenly left with $20,000 you would understandably reduce your spending, because your nest egg would not be big enough to support you anymore.

One concern I have, that I think will be different this time, is this: Our grandparents' generation was made of stern stuff. The crash this time will be more severe because of gov't efforts to prop up the markets, and the generation who will lose all their savings is the Baby Boomers- possibly the most spoiled, selfish and undisciplined generation in all history. I just don't know what will happen when this bunch of whiners loses everything. They'll probably cry out for a government savior, and will get the fascist they deserve- a guy who will make FDR look like a libertarian.

- Steve

(Fri May 29 1998 13:28 - ID#358318)
"Trinovant collectibles" Now there's an idea, but I'm keeping the copyright on "Trinovant"/"Trinovant collectibles" : )

(Fri May 29 1998 13:30 - ID#254269)
Steve-Perth; It's real simple. We don't have depressions any

(Fri May 29 1998 13:30 - ID#57232)
1929 and 1999? Yes -- could be very similar
gollum: I agree with you that the rolling deflations passing from country to country seem remarkably similar to the 1929 situation. I think the deflationary period began about 1925 in the rest of the world outside the United States, and the US markets bubbled in part due to the fear that keeping high US interest rates would worsen the progressive devaluations in the rest of the world. Eventually the US markets collapsed after all the 'flight to safety' money flow started to falter. The rest is history.

Also, it is easy to blame the 1929 era US fed for precipating the final crash -- either by inaction, or by zigging when they should have zagged. But, in reality, all private and federal banker types that had access to the money spigot probably had as few uptions, interest-rate wise, and liquidity-wise as our current ones. It is easy to see how 125% home equity loans, and credit card stock purchases are being popularized -- anything to keep the status quo operational a bit longer.

Personally, I don't expect more than a US market correction ( not a crash ) until 1999, or possibly 2010-2015. We could have a big one near y2k give or take 6 months, for several reasons. Our saving grace is that we have a fairly dynamic diverse economy ( unlike monolithic Japan ) , and the computer industry, information revolution will keep us from total destitution, IMHO. I don't expect the computer industry to revive until SEAsia is solidly back on its feet -- years down the pike, unfortunately.

It is also clear that 2010-2015 is a critical time for the US, as that is when most of the baby boomers will retire and want their social security ( and other 'entitlements' ) that isn't there any more. Gold could be $2000/oz by then. If we don't crash outright until then, we are bound to have several corrections and bear markets on the way.

By the way, the real long-term danger to our world-wide well-being is now the threat of war of some kind, probably nuclear. I am less worried about the economy and markets of the world, except that troubles there could be breeding grounds for war later. This will take years to evolve, though we will probably have many non-nuclear skirmishs on the way.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 13:36 - ID#209265)
Frustrated - Thank you for . . .
the info on Miramar. I'm enjoying looking at their info.!

- Steve

(Fri May 29 1998 13:37 - ID#347235)
Mozel, Silverbaron
Mozel, as usual you have nothing but mindless sarcasm to offer anyone, you left this forum once , do us all a favor and do it again. You were not missed the first time. I have probably read and written more meaningful words than you. I have three academic degrees All in History and have read most Executive orders in preparation to teaching classes. The fact still remains that E.O. CAN be overidden by Congress.

Silverbaron , thank you.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:37 - ID#254269)
Steve-Perth; The reasons we don't have depressions any longer is because
AG, RR and WJC have outlawed them !

(Fri May 29 1998 13:44 - ID#57232)
Another tidbit from Matt Drudge
All: It is no surprise that China's exportation of nuclear technolgy to Pakistan and Iran and ?? is a major problem for world peace.

And -- complements of our current amoral ( ? ) administration, the next generation of exported Chinese missles and nuclear technology will be even more sophisticated. I find little solace in the statement: 'Well, this is peacetime, so it is ok'. I think anyone who says this should be asked what he/she thinks may be left of the world for his/her children.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:47 - ID#347235)
While you are about it take FARTFUL with you.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 13:47 - ID#209265)
Avalon - heh, heh . . .
what you say is true. You'll never hear the Clinton Administration or the Chretien Gov't use the word Depression.

Depression was a euphemism coined by the US gov't in the 30's to avoid using the dreaded word from the 19th century: "Panic." The word Recession was invented after the war to avoid using the word "Depression" which might send everyone who had experienced it into a "Panic" : )

When our Panic finally happens it will probably be recorded in the history books as the "Great Recession" and the gov't euphemisers will have to cook up a new word for economic contraction.

- Steve

(Fri May 29 1998 13:47 - ID#410198)
Kitkat....You were looking at the TIME

Strad Master
(Fri May 29 1998 13:53 - ID#250297)
Gold (for Bart)
RETIRED SOLDIER: Message received. An e-mail has been sent. Talk soon.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:53 - ID#43185)
Sometimes when I think about it, I think the
let down will slower than we fear and not much
more than an ordinary correction. Othertimes I
think it will be faster and much more severe than
anyone expects. I think it really depends on what
happens after the first bounce. I think the situation
is much more serious than most realize. We are staring
at historically significant events unfolding in
Russia, Japan, and others which will undoutedly
give rise to historical significance in our own

I don't think the Feds inaction in 29 caused the
depression. The forces of recession were already
well under way by 29. The Fed waiting too long,
though, to curb exuberance in the markets I think
made the reaction more severe than it need have been
and helped a bad recession to become a long depression.

Right now the stock market langishes with little
real energy. Just as in 29 and 87 and most all of
the others the main event did not come without
warning. There were some days or weeks of this kind
of lethargy before the market finally caved.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:56 - ID#401349)
Steve in TO
Your query on Mirarmar. As the miners go this one is a solid company. I own several thousand shares most of which I have bought recently, but I did buy some much higher. It has real production and a whole lot of cash. Good value for a miner, but if POG doesn't do something they are all deadmeat sooner or later. Relative to RANGY which gets a lot of hype on this site, MAE is real value. I am surprised it has tanked as far as it has, but then management doesn't jazz the stock like a lot of others do.

(Fri May 29 1998 13:57 - ID#208393)
The TIME doesn't show up in ugly PURPLE! Besides what kind of time is 3.90? I'm telling you it's a bug or a crystal ball. Take your choice. If you make money on shorting, send me some for hurting my feelings.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:01 - ID#57232)
Executive orders
Retired Soldier: As we are seeing right now, our three branches of government are still working, althought they should be working better. At least we can still have independent prosecutors that are at least partially effective, and an FBI that is beginning to show some backbone again. If the President gets out of line, impeachment proceedings can be started. And, lastly, our current president would wilt if the people turned against him. He may be charismatic, and a convincing talker, but he is no dictator, fortunately. I don't know about Hillary, but I doubt that she will be a candidate for 2yk.

Heaven help us if we do get the dictator type in the White house with the war powers acts still enforceable. Fortunately so far we have not yet our equivalent of the Roman 'Crossing of the Rubicon' -- and the irreversible dismantlement of our government.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:03 - ID#43185)
whither the witch
If I was of a suspicious turn of mind I would say,
that every afternoon, especially at the end of the
week and most especially one before a holiday
weekend, some guy and his buddies in New York have
a leisurly lunch while they wait for the London
market to close. When they get back they put their
minds back on getting prices down for the weekend.
Looks like they had a bit of a tussle today. Silver
doesn't want to give and they couldn't get gold
down below it's morning lows. Well, there's a few
minutes left, maybe they can call in some bigger
guns...or get outgunned.

Fortuneately I am a naive and trusting soul and know
that it is all just random coincidenc.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:07 - ID#410198)
Kitkat....O well.. but what ever you took how about sharing :)

(Fri May 29 1998 14:07 - ID#39857)
Big dominoe looks real unstable, go to-------}

(Fri May 29 1998 14:09 - ID#254269)
Steve-Perth; I did not mean to sound flippant with my answer, but do think there
is a lot of truth contained in that "little barb". Glad Steve in TO got a laugh out of it anyway. EJ's 13.25 also had some real good points. Lot of it has to do with the amoral ( immoral ? ) leadership in Washington and Wall Street. This morning, driving to work, there was a talkshow radio
host "wondering why Pakistan did not accede to Washington's request to NOT explode those nukes ?" DUH, give us a break. A lot of it has to do with the "power" of the mainstream press and their ability to "manipulate" the population. I will tell you this about the USA though; there are a lot of real good people here and when this thing turns, it will turn on a dime like you would not believe ! When Ken Starr's report comes out, WJC may lose a lot of followers REAL quick. Some of the Democrats are already distancing themselves ( maybe they are just hedging their bets ) publicly from him.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:09 - ID#255217)
Demon silver
I guess I have finally come around to thinking that the guys are right when they say that silver is being manipulated. I used to believe that there was SOME manipulation in the silver market, but that it was minimal. Now, I am of the opinion that it is much more than minimal.

From $7.50 back down to $6.30 or so, I attributed to profit-taking. From $6.30 to $5.90, I figured more profit taking and/or boredom with a lackluster market. But from $5.90 to $5.00 and LESS??? That's a 33% drop from the high ( $7.50 ) . Either there is a hellofalotta profit taking still going on or a LOT of concerted shorting ( manipulation in my parlance ) .

And we may see more to come. IMO the way is CLEAR for silver to drop all the way down to $4.00, give or take. Why? Because LESS than a year ago silver fell to $4.15 or thereabouts in case you don't remember or were at the beach. It can do it again, no problemo. And with the help of the manipulators, it may be on its way there, now.

MY strategy is ride it all the way down and be there when the manipulators decide to turn it around and look forward to the ride back up. I am down over 18% already in my latest plunge and I am not going to let em psych me out of the market at this point.

Silver is not like a stock that falls because of bad earnings or poor management, and never recovers. Silver ALWAYS come back. It is incredibly useful ( and necessary ) and the supply/demand numbers are available for all to see. The essential ingredient in successful silver investing is still patience, i.e., the willingness to sit back and let the boys ( the manipulators ) have their fun; then enjoy the ride back up.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:12 - ID#153102)
@All Who Would Hear
The two executives orders I posted will lead to life-altering consequences in or before Y2K. The first subordinates all agencies including DOD to FEMA for the purposes of the Order which are all encompassing. The second speaks to the legal and political boundaries for New America. Naturally, a new order could refine those boundaries.

Y2K is going to be a political event. Regardless of the technology issues. The technological breakdown is opportunity. If enough things don't break by themselves, those who are going to seize this Emergency as an opportunity will secretly break them. The IRS cannot be ready for Y2K. Do you think the federals will lay down their arms ? FEMA can commandeer anything and anybody. Draw your own conclusions.

When FDR seized gold and outlawed gold and suborned the States into treason and gave the people greenbacks to USE, he forever changed the relationship between the governed and the governing in this nation. The most important insight I have had while posting here is the realization that the only parties which have a right of property in notes issued as debt currency are the borrower and the lender. The USER has none. I said you were a holder in due course. That was an error. You are merely a USER of greenbacks by permission of the lender and the borrower and only by the rules and regulations which DO NOT EVEN HAVE TO BE PUBLISHED.
In plain terms you have no right to what you call your money. You may only USE what you are permitted to USE. You don't own it.

In simple language, you are slave labor for the State. Very few readers on this site have mentally assented to the truth of this statement. Either their chains rest easy on them or they are reading it as my opinion, I suppose, and not as a QED from the legal facts. If any group should grasp these conclusions, it would be goldbugs. The fact so few have grasped them leads me to the inescapable conclusion that Americans at large will not grasp them for years, if ever. The governors fully understand the new power in their hands now that the people have no honest money that they actually own. The governed are clueless. In New America those who obey will be fed.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:13 - ID#25171)
@Gianni Dioro and ALL small digression + RUSSIA
Guess which building has its street number in red bright letters close to its roof and seeable all over 5th Avenue ?

666 ( Tishman building )

The RUSSIAN situation is certainly serious and a major collapse will eventually take place but not for now IMHO.

The people there are now quite good at manipulating financial markets and what is called "smart money" The process is as follows.

They need western institutional money.When the flow is drying there is a so called crisis.They have been there before.Then they raise interest rates to 50 or 60%.Then they suddenly announce massive new tax collection plans which will be implemented immediately.Next step is for IMF to say they are good boys and release some money . Then the money comes and rates go back lower.

Besides the fact that rates had to go to 150 % this time , the scenario was respected with its completion this morning as IMF said again that they support russian handling of the crisis...

Will a buyer strike in russian paper emerge? Not this time .Russia has been labelled to big to fail and will get support from Europe and US again and until they realise that they are pouring water in a well.Not now anyway as it is a lot easier to plug the gap in RUSSIA with 5-10 billion $ than to let the crisis spread through the rest of emerging markets and eventually in the western markets.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:15 - ID#347235)
Strad Master
Looking forward to it wont be home for about 9 hours yet, long day slaving at my desk, then to the airport to pick up the real boss Miss Lois

(Fri May 29 1998 14:19 - ID#165252)
$5 golden eagle

I have acquired one or two of these, most of them have an Arabic date,
one of them seems to have a Roman numeral date. When did they switch?

(Fri May 29 1998 14:19 - ID#347235)
Thanks, I agree, there Are 3 branches in this govt and the coward erect is about to find it out, the Supreme Court has ordered the White House to respond to questions but 16:30 Monday.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:23 - ID#410198) guess it is WB when you hold that much silver,you write options and pocket the premium
when the options expire,no conspiracy just good business

(Fri May 29 1998 14:42 - ID#288186)
Closing prices...
June Comex Gold-292.30 Aug Comex Gold-295.10
July Comex Silver-5.085 Dec Comex Silver-5.150

(Fri May 29 1998 14:43 - ID#187218)
Allen(USA)@12:53 and my ramblings
NOW -- This is the Allen ( USA ) that I know -- Excellent discourse...

You posted:

"... There will be many deaths due to lack of power, social unrest, governmental impotence, disease caused by malnutrition, hypothermia, disintegration of basic health services, etc, etc, etc... "

This is what allows my "Y2K Phoenix" arise and speak of my experience and predictions. I generally try to keep away from the Y2K 'thingy' because it seems that the 2 'camps' are polarized ( as they are in abortion ) and rarely will you find a changing-of-the-camps.

Obviously you have a thorogh understanding of hospital equipment -- I also have collegues telling me similar stories -- this is surprising that HP ( supplies great equipment ) has allowed this to happen. Perhaps it is their way for sales to have a trade-in promotion to get new MRI/CAT machines ( big $$$ ) . I do know ( from experience ) that Siemens Biomedical equipment is on top of this ( Princeton, NJ ) and are far ahead of any of HP's effots.

A somewhat related story....
I have a very close friend who is an Executive for one of the top 3 American Pharmaceutical Companies and is in charge of ALL of Asia -- he lives there. My Brother-in-Law was a middle manager for one of the top 3 companies ( a competitor to my friend ) . These guys would go on for hours about the interests of the various research branches and how it was in their best interest to promote the use and sales of drugs RATHER THAN spend the time/effort/money on the cure so that the drugs could be erradicated. At times the arguments were so heated I needed to ask that they changed the topic ( at a party ) .

In 1997, my Bro-in-law was promoted to an Executive position in which his salary was practically doubled. At a holiday gathering - the 2 guys - acted as if they have agreed on this subject since they were childhood friends. If you were not familiar with the history of these 2 and their positions you would not believe it.

What would be the catalyst by which we will ( one day ) mutually agree on Y2K ? Will it be reactive or proactive in nature ?

Regarding my above description,,, when you are a key player and need to promote the 'bottom-line' for the corporation you will defend this position. Is the reason money ?. A conspiracy ?. Don't know. However, look how long it took the truth to come out from tobacco executives -- remember all the Executives lined up before Congress ? You can pose an argument for Pharmaceuticals, tobacco, Greenspan, all levels of Gov't, and yes Y2K interests. Does this mean that cancer does not exist, or illnesses are non-existent -- of course not. BUT -- the resolve for these problems can be better addressed by fixing the known problems and searching the unknown. I recommend to everyone to 'get into the code' and point this stuff out.

Allen ( USA ) :,,, I hope that I am correct in my assertions NOT because of an ego RATHER because your scenario paints a bleak picture that will affect a large portion of the population. I do not want this to occur. One may argue that these methods portray the problem in its worst in an effort to promote awareness. This is similar to scaring people into eating tree-bark and organically grown food to avoid cancer. I happen to think healthy eating is an excellent model to live by ---BUT--- I will still eat steak, pizza, and gyros ( hopefully not at 1 sitting ) .

I'm Y2K'd out and I hope that I can go back into 'research-mode' for 2 more weeks before I take a coupla' weeks off to take a family vacation.

Thanx for letting me vent my spleen and I enjoyed your previous response.

How 'bout a little PM talk.

In months past I've sold most of my 'Blue Chip' paper and have moved a large porion of this money into RANGY, DROOY, CAU, etc. I stopped buying gold for several months when it was on the rise BUT have re-started my buying this week. I've been buying PMs for years and I feel really good about my stockpile since my 'mother-lode' is now priced in current levels averaged with the low levels of mid-1997. In all the years of investing, the last two years have been my smartest moves ( it's about time ) .

I await the fall in Platinum before I resume the same.


(Fri May 29 1998 14:43 - ID#255217)
EJ, your 13:25
I've seen those same blank stares you mention. And I think you answered your own question. They also made fun of NOAH when he was building the ark, didn't they? Perhaps, more importantly, the ones who laughed were swept away by the flood waters and perished.

(Fri May 29 1998 14:56 - ID#289357)
mozel @ To all that would hear

Okay - I understand what you are saying, that we do not own the 'money'....but who does own it - the USG, the Federal Reserve Bank, or the Novus Ordo Seclorum?

(Fri May 29 1998 14:59 - ID#340302)
@HAGGIS....wherever you are...I've got to give you credit.... called the Pegasus scenario correctly.

Good analysis.



Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 15:02 - ID#212323)
Mozel and your 14:12
Without intentionally doing so, you essentially answered my challenge posted yesterday at 19:33
"Aragorn III ( If you can answer this question correctly, you'll know why the system is dysfunctional and corrupt ) ID#212323:
Who are the "Modern Day Miners"?
Chime in with your answers...I must attend to other matters and will
provide the follow-up commentary tomorrow. You don't want to miss this!
Think hard on this... "

If people allowed themselves to have even the most casual discussion on this matter, the fiat system would collapse forthwith, and we would again have a government of, for, and by the people.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 15:19 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron's question
I'm sure you will be quite satisfied with mozel's answer, but allow me to create a quaint analogy to vanquish my boredom.
You have gold, which represents wealth and purchasing power. I have a car which represents function. Let's say I have no need for or ability to utilize this function, but I need other things. You see an opportunity, and enter into a contract with me that gives me temporary use of some of your gold in exchange for your temporary use of my car. At the end of the contract, you will return my car, and I will return your gold plus an additional percent as interest. ( In case you haven't caught on yet, you are the Federal Reserve and your gold represents greenbacks, while I am the USGovt Treasury and the car represents Treasury notes )

I use the gold to meet my various functional needs. ( USGovt can't *spend* T-notes, after all ) This gold belongs to you, and may pass through many hands, but eventually it must be returned to you ( plus the extra for interest, and we all know how impossible that arrangement is! )

You may in the meanwhile sublease my car to many others for their intermediate use, but the car ultimately belongs to me and must be returned when our contract expires.

The other parties involved may work hard to put themselves in a position to be able to use these items in the interim of the contract, but they certainly do not own them.

(Fri May 29 1998 15:24 - ID#340459)
@farfel, Strangely, The only money I made in PM stocks is Pegasus, I went out when it hit C$ 1.00
and LOST much more in TVX ( Bought at 6.15 sold today at 4.65, several thousand shares at that, Lost substantially in BGO, ECO, PDG, SSC, RANGY etc..

I still have 1,000 ECO left, and that's it till Gold crosses 300+, I am a poor man who got poorer by the principle of Fools' Gold.

Best of Luck to all Surfer's..

(Fri May 29 1998 15:28 - ID#338228)
Did you sell your Pegasus today?

(Fri May 29 1998 15:29 - ID#340302)
@GOLLUM...I am very interested...
...what is your effective call on the directions of gold and silver over the next month?

Please understand that I understand that a call is simply a call...50% chance you're right and 50% chance you're wrong.

But I appreciate your I will not hold anything against you if you are wrong.



(Fri May 29 1998 15:29 - ID#350179)
If this is a minor "Glitch"...
Indonesia continues...,1051,SAV-9805290211,00.html

(Fri May 29 1998 15:31 - ID#340302)
@FRUSTRATED...I'm out of Pegasus...
...and took a loss.

You win some and you lose some.

Life goes on, right?



(Fri May 29 1998 15:32 - ID#222235)
@Ear to the ground, here's a good news link

and the baby we greeted awhile back.

(Fri May 29 1998 15:35 - ID#222235)
@This says it all without a word

(Fri May 29 1998 15:35 - ID#350179)
For SDR_er

(Fri May 29 1998 15:37 - ID#342315)
J and Trinovant re coins
"We're are in the door"! Hallmark has too much initial requirements. MCD's promo mgr says send a pag and cover letter. Pkg is details of cost and physicals. Look up and read the disclaimer. It looks like right of the bat that what they get is theirs and maybe vendor has no rights!!?? I can fulfill MCD requirements, but I don't think Hallmark is worth it. Comments Thanx, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 15:41 - ID#227168)
Love those Miners
A tip to all the boys at Kitco ---CRN Buy at your own choosing Away to count the bucks

(Fri May 29 1998 15:45 - ID#25171)
@ 6pak Thanks for your 19:16 yesterday

(Fri May 29 1998 15:48 - ID#340302)
@MIDAS...hang in there...our day will come...
...RJ made one interesting point the other night...he ridiculed the notion that, if gold owners were to hold the lion's share of wealth ( after a market implosion ) , then the economic equilibrium would be completely out of whack. Who would gold owners purchase their goods and services from if everybody else suffered economic collapse?

Of course, I agree with him...such a scenario would be completely intolerable in the long run.

Analogously, the current scenario in which America has the vast majority of wealth and purchasing power while one country after another collapses indicates an economic equilibrium that is completely out of whack. Which countries will remain that are able to purchase America's output?

That is why I feel sadly certain that economic debacle is just around the corner for America.

Certainly, that is why I believe gold ownership will inevitably skyrocket.

However, gold's rise will be a relatively short term phenomenon until another "superior" paper/digital system can replace it once again.



(Fri May 29 1998 15:50 - ID#347235)
@ Prommey
Cute but lookout if Jerry Falwell sees it!!!

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 15:52 - ID#212323)
Are you familiar with e-gold ( tm ) ? The future of honest money, in my studied opinion.

(Fri May 29 1998 15:56 - ID#340302)
@ARAGORN...Yes, I think E-gold might be one possibility... a new financial systemic order.



(Fri May 29 1998 15:58 - ID#187218)
...lion's share of Au held privately ?....
I'm sorry that I'm jumping in here BUT aren't we the single digit minority that possess gold for the sake of holding it. What about industrial, gubmint' holdings. This notion of whacking the natural element of the market based on private holdings seems out of whack.

Mr. *F:,,, do you know the percentage ( or guess-timate ) of goldbug holdings versus available supply ??


(Fri May 29 1998 16:04 - ID#340302)
@WETGOLD...sorry, but I'm not sure I understand...
...your question?



(Fri May 29 1998 16:05 - ID#289357)
Aragorn III @ who owns the buck?

I understand the relationship between the US Treasury creating debt ( from nothing ) in a certain amount and their authorization of the FRB to issue notes ( worth nothing ) in the same amount.

But when I look at a greenback, I see both the names of a Constitutional entity, namely the United States of America and the US Department of the Treasury, and that of a non-Constitutional entity, namely the Federal Reserve Bank who issued the note.

If I am only holding the note and do not own it, which of the above do own it, the US Treasury or the FRB?

(Fri May 29 1998 16:08 - ID#254269)
Dow closed at 8901, down 69 points. 30 yr. bond at

(Fri May 29 1998 16:11 - ID#187218)
Perhaps I misunderstand an earlier post -- this is why I apologized for jumping in the middle.

Is someone saying that if most of the gold is help privately ( goldbugs ) then the market upswings/downswings will not trend as does a traditional economic cycle ? This is the premise that I am formulating my question based on your 15:48 post:

"... if gold owners were to hold the lion's share of wealth ( after a market implosion ) , then the economic equilibrium would be completely out of whack. Who would gold owners purchase their goods and services from if everybody else suffered economic collapse?... "

Based on "my assumption" the question is:

Does anyone know what % of the gold is held by us ???

Sorry if I misunderstand this but don't have time to review posts that aren't reference by date/time.


John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 16:12 - ID#24135)
Moscow Evenings
for Russian Brothers Oris and Junior..
I have always liked Russia a lot. I like classical
music .. and Shostakovitch Prokofiev and Stravinsky
were outstanding and unique composers.
Shostakovitch has written really major symphonies and
the other two have a wonderful feeling for crazy
humour that comes through in their music.
Russians also seem to have a deep sense of history and
are aware of themselves as players in an historic drama
( as well as people simply living their lives ) .
I liked Junior's explanation of the miner's disregard
for being paid since they live in that wooded Siberian
paradise with delicious and abundant wild berries and
nuts. Great Bears and even Siberian tigers abound in those
woods and befriending them can be a rewarding and
sometimes very challenging experience.
RSA is okay but as my brother Oris says .. it does
have many problems and shortcomings .. mainly the
lack of fine pickles of the tinned variety.. The only
really nice vodka is the swedish absolute ..
There is also a severe shortage of good tennis
players like kournikova ( who I would like to take me
to Siberia or anyplace as far as that goes ) .
Also this Saffin kid seems to improve every time
he hits the ball.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 16:13 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron... (where IS mozel-man?...he STARTED this!)
Sorry if my example left some ambiguity. Just as you own the gold in the example, the Federal Reserve owns the Federal Reserve Notes in real life. They expect these notes to be paid back with interest through the process of the USGovt "buying back" ( or should I say "paying off" ) their outstanding T-bills upon maturity. The paper goes back to its creator, we simply have use of it in the meantime.

Have I clarified this, or have I made matters worse?

(Fri May 29 1998 16:14 - ID#350179)
Globex CPU fails

(Fri May 29 1998 16:21 - ID#194311)
tera-flopping derivative trading
The present record highs in the US stock markets are due
to a Federal Reserve team of whiz kid computer programmers.
This elite group with access to supercomputing power and
utilising advanced mathematical models of the Black-Scholes
equation massage the indices to suit. Using a slush fund set
aside by the Treasury to combat speculative attacks against the
US dollar they have been trading in exotic financial instruments
on the futures market to maintain desired levels of important
stock indices.

As with all of the major banks derivatives trading is carried
out by computer programs which can calculate at tera-flop speeds
and make trades in milli-seconds. In many instances it is the
fastest guy on the "draw" who wins the prize, as they all are
running essentially the same mathematical model. The Federal
Reserve Banks realising the opportunity afforded by using such
programmers, programs and computing muscle have managed to
manipulate the market to ever more unrealistics levels and
maintain the "feel good" factor in the economy. In fact they
feel that they have such good control over the markets that
they are capable of never allowing a crash to happen.

Are these people the fabled Plunge Protection Team ( PPT ) or
have they grown into a monster that makes a mockery of everything
the free capital markets and capitalism stand for? Another more
troubling question is how will this scenario play out? Is it in
the "public's interest" to have there markets managed for
them? Perhaps more dire consequences await these adventurers
into market control systems when they realise that their model
is fundamentally flawed. Perhaps, in fact, the system they are
attempting to tame is inherently unstable and closing the feedback
loop as they have done must end with extremely sudden and catastrophic

(Fri May 29 1998 16:21 - ID#187218)
Aragorn III
What is the purpose of the serial numbers on a FRN ? Does anyone track these numbers to see the patterns by which the FRN assimilate throughout the world.

If the numbers are tracked and monitored a database must be maintained that indicates the know outstanding FRNs and those they haven't seen in years. If this is true, the 8 numerals and 2 letters on the serial number must be repeated since the number of outstanding M1/M2 far exceeds the number of possible conditions. So the question is how many FRNs have repeating numbers ? What's the reason for the new design of $100, etc ?

Finally, when will the database turn from maintanence and tracking of tangible FRN paper into one of binary computer entries linked to your SS # ?

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 16:23 - ID#212323)
John Disney...A question because this is a wide wide world...
Pickles mean different things to different people depending upon location and popularity. Many different items are 'pickled', and to understand what a pickle is requires familiarity with the users background. There are pickled olives, tomatoes, onions, eggs, cucumbers, potatoes, cabbage, meat, etc. In America, to say simply "pickle" implies "pickled cucumber."
What kind of pickle do you enjoy with vodka? Onions? I am fairly conventional in that I like pickled olives with my gin or vodka ( when in Martini form, that is ) .

(Fri May 29 1998 16:24 - ID#207145)
JAMES GRANT agrees defense spending is on the way.

Hard to believe James Grant and mois are the only folks talking about the impending resumption of defense preparedness. james earl Clinton Has de ja voused all over again . Here goes low intrest rates. HERE COMES GGGOOOLLLDDD. Of course this will be an unfolding thing. Thank God someone who has some sense has spoken to this.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:26 - ID#340302)
@WETGOLD...the last time I looked...
...I recall private gold ownership ( excluding jewelry ) at a figure of somewhere near 10% of the population.

Ask the World Gold Council via internet and I am sure they will provide you ( reasonably ) precise figures.



John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 16:28 - ID#24135)
Be nice RT
RT ..
You accused Mozel of "mindless sarcasm". I looked
through his postings and found no sarcasm ..
mindless or otherwise.
However, Your postings are full of sarcasm.
Mine are too. Could you possibly be confusing
MY postings ( or even your OWN though that seems
unlikely even to me ) with Mozel's.
Cmon RT .. Mozel makes a contribution. When you
feel that you are making an equivalent CONTRIBUTION
to the group.. then start criticising.
Otherwise it makes you come across as a little
bit nasty and I know you're not like that.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:29 - ID#359316)
kiwi: Equilibrium
If stocks keep going up and up with bull market returns for ever,
equilibrium will be reached by the real economy catching up -
resulting in inflation. To reassure investors that the stocks
beat investing in other things, more returns will have to be
pumped into the stocks. This will feed back to the real economy
resulting in runaway inflation.

The alternative equilibrium is that the stocks crash, or enter a
bear market cycle, so that the long term stock market trend is in
conformance with the real economy.

The lessons of history suggest that the discontinuous model will be
followed, as usual.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:30 - ID#43352)
Gold and Silver over the next month, ehh? That's kind of a tough one.
I suspect gold may be able to meander it's way back upt to $300 or so.
The Friday afternoon goblin didn't have much luck getting it any lower
than it's morning lows so it's getting good stiff support around 293
or so. In recent years the producers have gotten their production costs
down to not too much below this level so they have a vested interest
in not letting prices go much lower or they lose their livelihood.

At the $300 dollar level producer greed kicks in and they start making
direct and forward sales which means some external event like the end
of modern banking as we know it would have to come along to get it
higher. In between these two extremes the goblins play their games.

Silver is a thinner market and the producers don't have the same kind
of clout that the gold guys do. The goblins play shoot-shoot-out-the
stops and squeeze-the-shorts to greater effect here. From the way silver
held up this afternoon I would say they may have overplayed the short
end of the market for a while and are now ready to play the long side.
I would guess anything can happen here and guess it might even make
6 1/2 sometime during the next month.

Of course things never go the way one anticipates and I believe a lot
more in the unpredictableness of market movements than their predictability.

In the long run the trend for gold has been down for two decades and
will continue be so untill something happens to the dollar with an
occasional bear market rally.

Silver's long term prospects depend on when the supply/demand imbalance
finally empties the stockpiles. A lower price will speed that day's
arrival. A higher price will retard it, but so long as industrial and
cosmetic demand continue the arrival of that day is inexorible. Thank
God there are no large central bank holdings.

I think Warren Buffet got into the market as far back from that day as
he did becuase he didn't want to wait any longer and risk the price
run ups as that day approached. He didn't get in any sooner because
untill the stocks depleted enough silver was pretty volatile being the
plaything of the speculators it is.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:34 - ID#207145)
Defence spending to put an end to 15 year bond rally.
James Grant only likes short term bonds these daysCNBC ) . Says the world is no Garden of Eden.Feels stocks are ripe as hell.I agree. At some point I need to shorten up. Not now though.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:36 - ID#373284)
Gave my banker GOLD today
needless to say you should have seen the look on his face. On the Island that is Long, running with the Big Dogs, big ears flapping in every direction...

John Disney__A
(Fri May 29 1998 16:37 - ID#24135)
pickles ..
for Aragorn III
cucumbers are the BEST. The others
are just tricky little items. Onions
maybe OK .. They make them here but
You can probably really put ANYTHING
in a Martini and it wouldnt matter much ..
even a small stone will do if you like
them really DRY.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:39 - ID#207145)
by shorten up I mean on bonds.
Iwouldn't touch a stock right now. Not even an oil driller. But i am like the eagle watching the prarie dog, as even lowly oil is within sight of drawdowns.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 16:39 - ID#212323)
WetGold and FRN's
Given the 12 branches of the Fed Reserve ( hence 12 different letters at the front of the serial number ) and the 8 numerical digits followed by a letter, and given that bills come in denominations not only of one, but also of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100, and given that there is a fractional reserve lending system that creates money into your M1/M2 values, and given the additional reality of direct deposit ( electronic money transfers ) , you are not going to find a one-to-one correlation between any one given dollar unit and a Fed Reserve serial number. Without doing the math, however, I would think that there would be enough combinations of numbers, letters, and bills to accomplish the feat representing M1 or M2 with paper.

The numbers ( I believe ) were initially a deterrent to counterfeiting, as is the new designs for the bills you inquired about. Perhaps someone with deeper paranoia will give you a more interesting tale.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:44 - ID#410198)
John Disney.....looking forward to another fine dish from you tomorrow.. need it before going into
battle with weekend Kitco's

(Fri May 29 1998 16:45 - ID#207145)
Energy better move this summer and fall.
If it does not, we are all doomed. CRB disaster. Gold armageddon.
I am comfortable oil can go to 18.00 per barrel anyway. Normal ( whatever that is ) winter etc.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 16:45 - ID#212323)
John Disney
NO to the small stone...wouldn't want to sacrifice the VOLUME! ( grain of sand, perhaps... )

(Fri May 29 1998 16:45 - ID#22956)
Platinum finished strong today after a BIG sell off. Can anyone say *C-A-P-I-T-U-L-A-T-I-O-N* ( ? ) ? Tick-Tock.....Tick-Tock......the plat bug will run up the clock ( ? ) .

TOL#1 - You, sir, are a VERY generous soul. When I make it to NY to visit ( in '97? ) will I be greeted with fine tequila and gold? You would receive like attention here in Califonia ( that's in Merka ) ......we shall drink deeply from the 'killya' chalice.....kind souls are well life and after. Gulp to YA' ( ! )

Check out this chart.......

Notice earnings and all makes ya wanna say........... ( wow ) . Time to buy some is 'coming down' to ask for more buyers........... ( wink ) .... ( whisper ) me......buuuuuuuuuuy meeeeeeeeee..........

I still liked plats action today. I can't wait to view all the charts. I bet the red line crossed the blue line today........... ( highly technical TA talk ya know ) ........yuk-yuk.

Sharefin - would it be presumptuous to ask if you could post the URL of the Mid-Am charts with stoch's and rsi's etc? You do have some fine handy work mate. Perhaps others would like too. Forget I asked if it cannot or should not be done........... ( red-faced ) ........

RJ&Yale-Boy - you two sure know how to hog a dance floor the whole night............... ( whoa ) must know each real intimate like by now........... ( wink-wink ), answer the question's farfenburgermiester........... ( resistance is futile ) ........uh huh.

Now.....looky here

time for a split......can anyone say........4to1 ( ? ) .....hmmmmmmm.

I like my martinis VERY dry ( gin shot, dry bombay ) splashed over a couple large cubes with TWO green olives........mmmmmmmmmmm.......rocket fuel............. ( kaboom ) .

her is your CRN poorboys.......what's it all about?

go gold.........or silver............go plat.........ohmy! ( ! ) lay more bricks in yard


(Fri May 29 1998 16:47 - ID#373284)
I have 7 bazillion email messages, woof...will get to them...CHARLIE your LEO is on the way, if you do not get it let me know, I will go POSTAL... ( actually I refuse to hurt people, just an expression )

(Fri May 29 1998 16:52 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re Leo
Thanx a lot buddy. I'll let you know, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 16:53 - ID#273432)
Aragon III
Upon reflection, perhaps it is not after all the FRB that owns the note - it is probably whomever bought the debt that the note was issued for. ( But then they probably paid for it in FRNs ) A closed circle of worthless paper....All this tallk about not owning FRNs, debt from zero, etc., makes me feel good about a comparison between my bank account and that of Bill Gates. He owns a lot more of those worthless pieces of paper than any of us, but 100 go-zillion time zero is still zero....Buy gold and silver!! ( ;^ ) )

(Fri May 29 1998 16:55 - ID#373284)
HUG and whispered HAPPY BIRTHDAY in her ear FROM YOU...dancing in her eyes with the laughter of your taking the time to care.........

(Fri May 29 1998 16:56 - ID#402148)
Help me if I am seeing things, but it appears we had KEY REVERSALS in silver, copper, oil, cotton, palladium, platimum and the CRB fututres today ( gold would have except for someone stepping on it's neck ) .

We are also at the 3rd spike of a long bond rates triple bottom. Am perplexed by utlities today going in same direction as commodities. Comments welcome.



(Fri May 29 1998 16:57 - ID#252150)
Swiss Cheese@Their Banks have as many holes-In case you have'nt seen enough bad news

Fed declines comment on UBS/SBC after report

NEW YORK, May 29 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined to comment on approval of the U.S. operations that would result from a merger between Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS.S ) ( UBS ) and Swiss Bank Corp. ( SBVZn.S ) after a report raised concerns about UBS's operations in Singapore.

The Economist reported in its May 30 edition that UBS could face substantial losses from its activities in Singapore, and that problems were severe enough to threaten regulatory approval of the banks' merger.

UBS denied the report alleging it suffered huge losses in its Singapore branch and said while provisions were increased due to the general environment in the region, operating results were still satisfactory.

The New York State Banking Department was not immediately available to comment.

(Fri May 29 1998 16:57 - ID#373284)

(Fri May 29 1998 17:01 - ID#262242)
Strad Master
Hello Strad Master, good to see you back. Hope everything is well with you and your family. God Blesses the pure in heart.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:02 - ID#57232)
Post economic collapse and Goldbugs,et al
Farfel: The answer to that problem is that RJ is right. The motor of the economy will be dead. And even the Rothschilds do not want that. So -- gold is used as the 'cold start' fluid to get the economy going again, and the wealth distributed among the people so that goods can be bought and sold. The Rothschilds do not want to be the exclusive holders of the wealth in a dead economic system. That would be like king Midas, where everything he touched turned to gold, even his own daughter. Midas could have had all the gold in the world, but without people in that world his life would be worthless.

I think the question that is more appropriate is not whether it is right that the gold should be in the hands of a few. It is whether anyone had enough sense to keep some gold to jump start the economy. I would agree with you that it probably would be better if all countries had the approach India does, and everyone held some gold. That also dilutes economic power, and the risk of a few controlling the many. But -- we will not have that, because most people still do not realize what is heading their way.

People like us will be the ones who will be prepared, and able to pay for goods and services. People like Jin in Indonesia. Eventually the worlds economies will recover, just as they have many times before, and the wealth/poverty debt/asset cycle begins anew. And, for a time, the people will remember the folly of their ways, regain the work ethics, and stay out of debt. Undoubtedly, we will have another version of the Glass-Steagull act, separating banking functions from more speculative functions.

Hopefully we as a people ( the human race ) will remember better this time around.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:04 - ID#410215)
..... Stuff, then Awaaaaaaaaay .....

I guess Im happy with the close, After the whoopin taken by PGMs and silver, it would seem the people who did best this last week ( or at least got hurt the least ) were in gold, yes?

I would love to call this and end to the down, but the short covering was modest and will take follow through next week to build any confidence. People lost money in silver and platinum last week and, while I am still very shy about silver, my views on platinum remain As Before. First delivery notice on the June contract last year saw palladium jump up 30 dollars. That was a whole lot more when you stop to consider palladium was at 170 then. If we get even a modest bounce, and some follow though in platinum, Ill breath a lot easier.

Said I would cover gold shorts this week, but decided to hold on to most of them. Ill cover a couple dollars higher, if I have to, after the whites show a clear turn around.

Platinum WAS a pretty good buy this AM at 361, yes?

I know, I said that at 400 too....

Time will tell.......


(Fri May 29 1998 17:06 - ID#347235)
@ John Disney
You know me too well. Just tryin to stir the pot some.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:08 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re FRN's
You got that right. Hardly any difference between you and Gates. anything times 0 is still 0. In my case it's 0x0 what the hell is that., Charlie

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 17:09 - ID#212323)
JTF at 17:02
You have done well to capture the essence of a true goldbug. It is not about "making money" via the gold vehicle at all. It is as you say. Yes it is, it surely is.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 17:15 - ID#212323)
Well of course I care! Your Mumm did very well to bring about the likes of you...a golden child. She brings honor to herself through her accomplishment.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:15 - ID#373284)
ZERO is so much more than nothing
iffin you step through the portal properly...

(Fri May 29 1998 17:19 - ID#288295)

tolerant1 lives in Au-Merka; the rest of us just on the border from there. ( ;^ ) )

(Fri May 29 1998 17:20 - ID#335379)
Hello Frfell and anyone that might comment:
The statement posted earlier seemed to indicate that if gold stayed flat shareholders would be receiving zero beanifit. If one were to hold on,
would there be any benafit if POG went up. Or are all old shares simply worthless forever... I bought very cheap as high risk/ possible turnaround.
I could stay in if it matterred, if it nolonger matterred I could exit.
Comments please...
Thank you in advance,

searching for truth....

(Fri May 29 1998 17:22 - ID#255190)
Happy birthday to her!!!

(Fri May 29 1998 17:22 - ID#373284)
tears, going to sit on the lawn............
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.................Greatful TEARS..........

(Fri May 29 1998 17:23 - ID#255284)
So much to read! Did you see my Date: Fri May 29 1998 06:12 on Plat supply & demand? would appreciate anyone's thoughts.

did you post a follow-up to the assay kit?

Aragorn III missed my favourite pickle. Pickled walnuts. Ohh. mmmm. small and wrinkled like my bwain.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:23 - ID#335379)
Appologies please, thats Farfel, and all

(Fri May 29 1998 17:26 - ID#254269)
Comic Relief; China
Cartoon in our local paper today ( originally from Philadelphia Inquirer ) shows three Chinese digging a tunnel up into the Oval Office where the lead tunneler ( coming up through a trap door ) throws some money
into a large bag on the floor of T.O.O. ( that's The Oval Office ) .

Caption beneath the cartoon, has the second tunneler saying to the third guy in line " If you dig deep enough, you get to America".

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 17:30 - ID#212323)
Personally, I prefer a pickled date... ( preferably tall, willowy, and blonde )

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 17:32 - ID#212323)
So much for my credibility...

(Fri May 29 1998 17:33 - ID#410215)
..... Last Stuff, then Awaaaaaaaay .....

Argent said: "Silver ALWAYS comes back.".

This is true, regardless of the range

Silver always seems to give you a second chance..

RT -

Mozel is just very much to the point.

Take no offense, for I am sure he means none.

Kiwi -

I like Maggie. Shes got balls.

Aurator -

Ill look it up again later I gotta go.

Did you guys get Gigantor - the poorly animated 60s cartoon - down there?

Aurator works in the theme song too.

Try it

(Fri May 29 1998 17:33 - ID#227168)
Tink Canadian
EB You gotta think Canadian Crosslake Chart and Away for some dandy

(Fri May 29 1998 17:34 - ID#342315)
Aurator re kit
Last I posted was I could get one and ship it ( essential oils ) . Had not seen a reply. Let me know and I'll go to work on it. Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 17:40 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.42 The 50 day moving average is 29.78. A year ago the ratio was 21.31.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:43 - ID#347235)
I wasn't really offended I just aksed for some facts, he has still to publish facts. I think he probably wathes too many televangilists. They are going ape about the UN,NWO and all that. I have lived in many other countries and I firmly believe that most nations are to NATIONALISTIC
TO BIND INTO ONE GOVT. India and Pakistan, Isreal and the Arab
Countries, Germany and France?? Get Real it wont happen.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:43 - ID#408170)
Just Luck????
"SO I got it right. Again. Two weeks ago, I told you to expect a mini-Crash. It

didn't happen on schedule before the long weekend, and this week it did. Fine.

So what have I done for you lately? Well, I'm gonna 'splain why you should

expect more weeks like this ( 2-3 of them ) , down to the 8100 level, then a

bounce to 8500, then the BIG ONE."

(Fri May 29 1998 17:44 - ID#153102)
@AragornIII @Silverbaron @JohnD
AragornIII & Silverbaron The Notes are numbered so that they can be accounted for. Without numbering, there is no accounting. They are actually accounted against the issuing Reserve Bank when they are destroyed because they have deteriorated to a no longer in USEABLE condition.

You do not hold the note. It was an error for me to use the phrase holder in due course. For someone to be the holder of a note, some else must assign or endorse the note to them. There are two signatures on an FRN: 1. The Secretary of the Treasury and 2. The Treasurer of the United States.

It is important to know that Corporations can only act by Seal. There are also three Seals on a Note. 1. The Great Seal of the United States on one side and 2. The Seal of the Department of the Treasury and 3. The Seal of the issuing Federal Reserve Bank on the other side.

The word owner was corrupted in law post-FDR. There are now equitable owners, legal owners, lawful owners, beneficial owners, and allodial owners. And, I don't think that's a comprehensive listing. By law, the USER of an FRN has certain ( amendable ) legal rights but in no way do they add up to what people mean when they say, "I worked and paid for it and I own it."

The Note is an obligation, for what, to whom, and on what terms are buried in Statute and in Treaties. But from what I have seen, I'm reasonably sure the legal owner of the Note is The Bank.

@JohnD Is it possible someone wants to be able to report to someone, "Mission accomplished" ?

(Fri May 29 1998 17:46 - ID#410215)
..... Quickly, then Awaaaaaay .....

Aurator -

JM says Chinese demand and new technologies have more than made up for the fall off in the rest of Asia. Ill talk about the other stuff later.

Englehard, same, same.

Awaaaaaay to be Awaaaaaaay.........

(Fri May 29 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .255. The 50 day moving average is .274. A year ago the ratio was .300. My database shows 20 occasions where the XAU closed in the 74.XX range. The ranking for today is 18th. The #1 rank was on 12/26/86 with gold at $390.20, the XAU at 74.17 producing a XAU/AU ratio of .190.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:48 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 57.37. A year ago the ratio was 72.10

(Fri May 29 1998 17:49 - ID#255190)
Perfectly understand the mind bending influence of being in upper management. See it all the time. Never been there myself, though. The thin air at the heights of power and all that.

Most CAT&MRI equipment is made ( in the States ) by GE. Cardio stuff by HP.

Think about the scanner problem. 500,000 units out there. If they had 500 teams ( which they do not have ) and renovated an average of 1 machine per team per day then it would take them 1000 days to do this. A little late, no? Consider that they must CERTIFY the equipment and WARRANTY the work as well since they are completely liable for failure to perform after they touch the machines. Ouch, Doctor, that hurt!!!

The only people who will get renovated are those who are first in line. Think about how many IV pumps are out there. Millions. Same logistical problem.

The pharmacutical companies have a really hairy problem because many of the most effective drugs are propriatary and made by only one manufacturer. This single point of failure in supplies makes a nasty problem such as the problem with the Dutch Insulin producer; to much concentration. If they do not get back on line fast enough then many people will suffer or die.

Unfortunately many of the highly refined and engineered products that we use every day are built by only one company from parts or materials offered by only a few companies, where no substitutions are feasable. The problem that the auto/truck manufacturers have is mind boggling. GM has 2,000,000,000 lines of code and 100,000 suppliers to be corrected. 99% will not do, will it? Their factories need complete renovation or else they will lock up tight as a drum. Chrysler did this as an experiment. The doors locked down on them and it took them 3 hours to break into their own plant. Everything was frozen solid. No workie.

Again this is a logistical problem. The people who built these systems are out numbered by the mass of what they have created over the past 20 years. There are not enough technical people to do the work. The liability issues rise up like a gigantic sea monster. If they touch it they are responsible.

I believe that what is important for America is that the President acknowledge the problem for what it is and to place this problem at the forefront of people's attention. As a nation we need to work hard to correct as much of this as we can AND to prepare for the inevitable bad things that can happen. But of course The Pres is not and probably has not intention of doing this. He is a believer in Government with a capital 'G'. That means control and this problem is the quintessence of losing control for centralized authority.

(Fri May 29 1998 17:54 - ID#373284)
A huge hug from the Mommies to ya...and these tears are the fabric of a life that is thankful...NAMASTE'

(Fri May 29 1998 18:00 - ID#255284)
I previously accepted your kind offer, and undertook to despatch Bank Draft in advance of your order. Volumes on kitco getting to average 170 pages per day, impossible to catch up on everything, eh?. May I impose on you further to post your e-mail address?

Never saw Gigantor, sounds like a big lizard, or maybe a really big ant, auric can probably find a link to Gigantor some where. THis web is amazing, any Red Dwarf fans out there? Sure are some great smeghead sites, my screen saver is Red Dwarf.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:03 - ID#287186)
"Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

"But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

If you do not know from whence this quote came - ask and at least a dozen fellow Kitcoites should be able to tell you.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:06 - ID#359316)
Red Dwarf | Bart
Bart: Your computer's clock is 4 to 5 minutes slow.

Red Dwarf- what's the price of gold after 3 million years in
hibernation? Did you know you can go into Selfridge's in London
and buy some very expensive SMEG fridges. Yes, there they all
are with SMEG in big chrome letters on the front. Should
be in the show. Rimmer, Lister, Cat, Kryten, Holly;
an all-time classic. Brought to you from the good old United Kingdom.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:08 - ID#373284)
a most wonderful gulp to YA! Each and every day is a Holiday while you are on the planet...if you get to Huntington, ask for the Lady I gave an ounce of GOLD to today...she worked in a place called, kidding...that was the name of the store and I made the Police laugh, not the band, because I had to travel too far to get the beer...I am the thing that was in the cage next to that which developed the Porsche design is not yet perfected...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Fri May 29 1998 18:08 - ID#273432)
mozel @ FRNs

Thank you for your thoughtful ( as usual ) response to my question on the FRN ownership. My stars! Could such a contrived system have originated by plan? The public would NEVER understand this shell game, or even suspect that it is the case ( of course, until the rules change ) ..... Buy gold and silver - they are much simpler to understand, and what you see is what you get.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:10 - ID#215208)
Its really spooky when my predictions turn out to be uncannily accurate, especially so quickly.


Prediction: ( When gold was around 300 and silver around 5.30 )

"Silver will dip to 5.00 or slightly under. Gold will reluctantly dip briefly to 295, but nobody's going to get any great bargains ( relative to current prices ) ."

Today's London afternoon closing: gold 293.60, silver 4.9565

Platinum/Palladium: ( When PA was 352 and PL was 379 )

"PA will drop steeply, possibly down to 280. This will take PL down. Using a channel width similar to the previous one, PL could touch 265 ( London closing, of course ) ."

Today's London afternoon closing: PA 285 and PL 261

So what now? I fine tuned the silver channel. Given this and the steep slope, it looks like silver would actually need to hit 280 to touch the bottom of my channel. If silver has bottomed, as APH suggests ( July 4.92 intraday ) , then the dotted line channel would apply. Personally I'm going to wait another day or so to see what happens. I am pleased that the RSA golds have finally given up some ground. Perhaps we will get better bargains than it seemed we would.

PA is still $5 above what I consider to be its trend line. And it could overshoot, since the drop was so steep. However, given today's action, it seems unlikely that the steep decline will continue. Personally I jumped the gun by a day and bought PL at 267 yesterday, when July PL bounced off 266 ( my target was 265 ) . Also bought my first coins! 10 platinum eagles. Can't wait to see them.

It is clear that going long in PL ( and hopefully silver ) will be betting against the recent trends. I plan to keep a close eye on these.

Happy trading to all of you!

(Fri May 29 1998 18:14 - ID#342315)
Aurator re kit
I just happened to think-had to change computer and ISP . If you emailed it could be old. New, and working, is Let me know, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 18:15 - ID#252391)
The week passes
In many ways it was good thing this week only had four trading days in it, otherwise the damage to gold stocks probably would have been worse.
Last Frdiay at this time I posted XAU charts that shouted SELL. The lows of the week May 18-22 were violated with the first trade of the new week. The 120 day chart of the XAU ( through Thursday ) below shows the damage done as the index penetrated ( gapped through ) the last remaining trend line and finished almost on its lows for the week - fading in the last hours with the equity market.

I take this action as being negative, obviously, and indicative of further declines. From a purely technical perspective it is impossible to see anything but further erosion of the XAU, its components and related securites. We are into a support area in the lower part of the mid 70s and trepidation of the shorts before the EURO announcement coming, possibly, on the 9th of June may give us a counter trend rally in gold. It would seem the market is telling us that the EURO announcemnt will be a disappointment.

In early morning trading I observed the Silver trades at $4.91 and suggested that was close enough to my target of $4.85 to be worthy of a buy. Plat and PD came off their lows of the same time frame when comments on this board began to quote Armstrong's perdiction of $3.50 silver. I feel the shorts still have control of the silver market with PD susceptable to any talk of Russian deliveries. Therefore to venture a guess of next weeks action which seems far less certain than what transpired this week, I say watch for a feable attempt at a rally with nothing above 80 on the XAU, probably nothing above 78, nothing above $5.40 in Silver and Gold to be contained by $296 and certainly $300.

Plat and PD? Well, the unperdictability of those markets is only overshadowed by their seemingly positive fundlementals. Buy the breaks and buy SWC at a target of 22.

As stated last week the dollar and bonds are King - with there being little sign that is about to change. Bottom pickers may delight in their brillance momentarily, next week, but the trend is down in the XAU and in all the metals. Fundlementally maintanined positions on the long side in the metals and mining shares should be small, relative to capital, given this technical background. After a relief rally or consolidation period the down side appears still to be significant.

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 18:16 - ID#212323)
Of course, a lot of your 200's were actually meant to be 300's in that otherwise fine post of yours.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:17 - ID#26793)
Your post about Indonesia at 15:29 was a nice catch. It is a well wriien story showing the problem in human terms. There is no way this problem will be isolated to Indonesia.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:18 - ID#255284)
On which island is the statue of Riberty?
even some un-merkan kitcoites know that one, thanks to our merkan friends.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:23 - ID#215208)
Aragorn III - Of course, all the references to PL were meant to be 3xx not 2xx. Also the silver channel bottom is 4.80 of course, not 280. Shoddy posting ....

Aragorn III
(Fri May 29 1998 18:24 - ID#212323)
Gone for the day
I'm off to drink a toast to Tolerant1 and his Mumm. Will be sailing tomorrow...winds permitting...trying to keep that little cat' balanced up on one hull, wired-in hanging on the wing of the other. YeeeeeeeHaaaaa!
Gulp to ya, T. Gulp to ya, Ma, I hope you didn't stop at one--you do fine work!

(Fri May 29 1998 18:26 - ID#347235)
@ Mozel
Not to worry I AM REALLY Retired from the Army not involved in any way with foreign or domestic policy anymore. I forgot to mention Poland and Russia, two people with many interchangable words in each language, neither will admit they can understand the other. Talk about
true enemies that would never consent to NWO,OWG, trust me it wont work!

(Fri May 29 1998 18:31 - ID#43460)
Retired soldier re one world government
Let me conjecture a little bit about this if you don't mind. Please recall there are many instances in history where groups of smaller entities banded together into confederations. As a few easily recognized examples there were the Twelve Tribes of Israel, the Peloponesian ( spelling? ) League, The Holy Roman Empire, The Five Nations of Amerindians. Each confederation was composed of fiercely independant nation states which put aside their self interest for a common ethos and to fight a common foe. Respectively the foes were the Canaanite tribes, the Athenians, the Moors and the Europeans. IMHO

Now in the case of the UN there was initially both a common ethos and common foe. The ethos was that of democratic socialism of the WW2 "Allied Powers" and the common foe was national socialism of the axis powers. Now without a foe the confederacy would crumble so in the absence of external enemies the UN turned to a ritualistic nonwar, the so called 'cold war', then when that failed they encouraged the rise of nationalistic sentiments in the mideast. But the basic UN ethos remains that of a pluralistic, decentralized socialism. IMHO

With such I don't think that it will ever be any stronger than the Five Nations or the HRE in the next few years, or like ancient Israel it will fragment into two or more major factions. Socialists have a lot of energy organizing things and making sure everybody is properly in line and has their ticket punched but they just don't have what it takes to play an effective ball game to keep the crowd interested in standing in line in the first place. IMHO

(Fri May 29 1998 18:34 - ID#342315)
Finally got your message. Have posted email, if you don't catch it, let me know. I'll call tomorrow and get this in gear. I'm sure your address is with your mail. It's not big, about 4 x 6 inches x 5. No sweat, will get it going asap. Plenty glad to help. I'll have no trouble catching email. Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 18:36 - ID#359316)
Confederations against a common foe
US and CIS against ?
India and Pakistan ( and China? ) against ?
Greater Europe ( ~EFTA ) against ?

(Fri May 29 1998 18:36 - ID#342315)
Aragon111 re trip
Bon Voyage. Keep a good stick so if you hit the drink you can smack the gators on the snout, Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 18:39 - ID#347235)
You have made the same point I have made, NOne of the attempts to rule the known world from one place has ever successful. I do not believe that it will work now. There are too many types and personalities out there for it to work.

(Fri May 29 1998 18:39 - ID#426220)

With lethal logic Ted Butler cuts down Martin Armstrong with rapier precision in their duel debate about the PROMISING prospects of SILVER. Butler's rebuttal to Armstrong's recent SILVER reports called "BLACK & WHITE." Remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before position to Internet locator:

(Fri May 29 1998 18:40 - ID#401460)
Hide the inflation

CRB goes up and Gold has to go down or people will see the inflation.


(Fri May 29 1998 18:44 - ID#153102)
@There is only one World Bank

(Fri May 29 1998 19:00 - ID#26793)
Ohio Banking Crisis
I was looking over some old notes today entering data into my system. Price of gold on 18 March 1985 was $303, silver $5.97 and the Dow at 1249.62. On Tuesday, the 19th of March, the Ohio banking crisis broke into the news. They did not use the FDIC in Ohio but rather had an extensive state owned insurance system that became insolvent. The FDIC had to take over the State of Ohio obligation. That day the Dow went up to 1271.09, gold soared $35.50 closing at $338.50 and silver closed at 6.83, up 86c. Gold did not go below $303 again until 25 November 1997, 12 years later, when it closed at $299.50. Since 25 November 1997, we have had 102 days when gold closed below $303.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:01 - ID#153102)
@Retired_Soldier @gagnrad
Do you have an agreement with The Bank recorded on your signature card where you deposit your Notes and does that agreement make you subject to all the Rules and Regulations of The Bank ? Is The Bank governed by the Constitution and laws of the United States ? If not, then are you not already governed by another International Sovereign ?

When the President of the United States said "we have no choice but to impose sanctions", for whom was he performing the role of law-enforcer ?
Are persons who have a legal duty to Interpol allowed to subordinate that duty to any national duty ? No. Do you know all law-enforcement in the United States has a legal duty to Interpol by Treaty ? Are officers of the Unites States Army who serve under United Nations command required to expatriate ? Think long and hard on that before you reply.

When so many like Farfel say another digital/paper "currency" shall replace this one with no grasp of the consequences of such a declaration, which amounts to a declaration of dependance, only Frostiches will not foresee what is coming to fruition.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:08 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at mid-day.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:11 - ID#27341)
Trinovant 10.19,YEP. Steve-Perth 11.20, thanks.Steve in TO. EJ. JTF.Prometheus 15.35 right-on. Gollum. and all great stuff

(Fri May 29 1998 19:19 - ID#26793)
Brokers are prepared to handle a big market break

(Fri May 29 1998 19:22 - ID#307271)
Deception: The Modus Operandi du jure. Gold and Silver are worthless. The Supreme Office of the Presidency is worthless. All things are worthless except Air Dollaires. Is anyone surprised that what is up is down and what is right is wrong...according to the Powers of Deception that delude everyone who is not Aware that deception is taking place.

Case In Point: Ken Star is the Problem. Another C.I.P.: There is no inflation? Except the days be shortened, even the very elect would be deceived by such powerful deception.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:23 - ID#39857)
Must read. Shaping up for '29 crash,98 crash,its like a lightning flash.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:29 - ID#26793)
Gold is so cheap it is not economical to mine.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:31 - ID#340302)
@NICODEMUS...unfortunately, I believe you can...
...kiss Pegasus common stock good-bye.

The company will attempt to re-organize and it looks as though it will be successful ( given that gold stays above 300 ) . However, the secured creditors will end up owning ALL ( repeat...ALL ) the new common stock issued ( probably in late Fall ) .

The only share purchases occurring today ( I would imagine ) were purchases by shorts closing their positions.



(Fri May 29 1998 19:39 - ID#26793)
Must be paradise; hardly anyone pays taxes.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:39 - ID#340302)
@NICODEMUS...there is a bright side to the Pegasus demise...
...provided you own other gold stocks or the physical itself.

Essentially, everytime institutional investors hear of another gold company going belly up, it enhances their interest in surviving gold stocks.

A shrinking gold supply from the mines compels central banks to increase sales of gold to meet the supply deficit. Yet, there is a ceiling to such sales, is there not?

Simply put, there are various central banks ( major gold holders ) that give every indication they do not wish to part with a single ounce.

Given that there is evidence that gold paper claims on the physical far exceed the available CB and mine supply, fireworks lie ahead.

Customers taking physical delivery will end the gold paper charade.



(Fri May 29 1998 19:41 - ID#342315)
Retired Soldier and gagnrad
With all due respect to Mozel, where lines are drawn and not known, there are 2 kinds of decision. One is by commitee and the other is an immediate and decisive move by an individual who takes responsibility for that decision. An alliance or confederacy can not meet adversity in all cases with swift and accurate results. The individual decision in such cases may not have to worry about consequences. Sometimes you have to step out and MOVE. Hope this doesn't stir the brown too much, but it comes from experience.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:44 - ID#190411)
@Anyone, that wants a laugh at an idiot.
I just did my bit by buying more useless commodity.
At least, if you grind it to fine powder, it makes a dandy anti-bacterial that you can put in your yuppie running shoes.
Go Dr. Scholl's, go Ag..ggh, go gold and other commodities. ... My feet stink, I believe that I will retire to the restroom and stand shin deep in junk silver.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:48 - ID#43460)
Will the EPA ban catalytic convertors?
All: This is too good to pass up. The standard disclaimer applies ie no commercial interest, no advice, IMHO, et cetera. Lawyers pucker up! All the post below this line is frowarded material:



A recent study from the Environmental Protection Agency says
catalytic converters -- which have sharply reduced smog -- are a
substantial factor in global warming. The federal government
several decades ago ordered auto manufacturers to install the
devices on cars.

Researchers have suspected for years that the converters
sometimes rearrange nitrogen-oxygen compounds to form nitrous
oxide, also known as laughing gas. Nitrous oxide is a greenhouse
gas more than 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide -- the
most common of the gases blamed for global warming by some
environmental theorists.

According to the EPA:

o Nitrous oxide now accounts for about 7.2 percent of the
gases which supposedly cause global warming.

o Cars and trucks -- most fitted with catalytic converters
-- produce nearly half of that nitrous oxide.

o Improvements in the converters which eliminated more of
the nitrogen-oxygen compounds have only made matters worse
by producing more nitrous oxide.

o Nitrous oxide may represent about one-sixth of the global
warming effect that comes from gasoline use.

Auto industry experts say they can solve the problem by adjusting
the converters. But some environmental activists are already
seizing on the problem to demand radical changes -- such as
mandating development and use of electric cars.

"You've got people trying to solve one problem, and as is not
uncommon, they've created another," observed one EPA official
involved in the study.

Source: Matthew L. Wald, "Autos' Converters Increase Warming as
They Cut Smog," New York Times, May 29, 1998.

For more on the Environment go to

(Fri May 29 1998 19:50 - ID#190411)
Donald, Friday night, and your'e out slummin'
Your last post has links to "CIA World Factbook", and the "UN Homepage".
-Both a fount of prescience.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:52 - ID#287186)
JTF on Fri May 29 1998 17:02 stated:
"I would agree with you that it probably would be better if all countries had the approach India does, and everyone held some gold. That also dilutes economic power, and the risk of a few controlling the many."

As long as GOLD or SILVER are of such low values {measured not in its price in some fiat currency but in what it will buy, ie rolls of TP} that one person or a few can corner the market or manipulate it at will then GOLD & SILVER WILL NEVER AGAIN BE A STABLE STORE OF VALUE for the common person. They will remain merely poker chips for affluent gamblers.

Control of 1000 metric tonnes of GOLD is within reach of some present individuals. This is a sizable fraction of entire world stock of GOLD and an even greater fraction of non-CB GOLD. The prices of GOLD and SILVER must be such that such manipulation is beyond the reach of the richest person. If GOLD was $3110 per ozt {$100/gram} A person with several billion US$ to spend on trying to control GOLD, for instance, would then only be able to control "only" 100 metric tonnes {32,151 troy ounces per tonne}. A similar ten-fold increase in price of SILVER would be needed to similarly limit the effect of one or a few persons. GOLD could easily reach this value or greater if the entire value of M1 was 100% "backed by gold". {Not likely, I know}.

Unfortunately GOLD at such a value would require coins of reasonable denomination to be miniscule. A 1/10 oz Maple Leaf would be worth about $300 - not very useful for buying groceries except for large families. A one gram {15.43 grain} GOLD coin would be worth about $100 - the upper limit for consumer transactions. Eldorado's idea of gold threads embedded in "paper" currency is a viable alternative if gold content was verifiable at the cash register.

SILVER, on the other hand, would be a viable coinage from $5 to $100. Copper could be used for small change of $1 to one cent {a coin the size of the 1/10 oz GOLD}.

In any case, FOR GOLD TO BE DEMOCRATIZED AND THUS MONETIZED FOR THE COMMON PERSON it would have to become quite resistant to manipulation by one or a few. Only at values ten or twenty times what they are now would GOLD and SILVER meet that qualification. At that level a 1/10 oz Maple Leaf would buy not 50 rolls of toilet paper but 1000 rolls! And not even Bill Gates could buy more than a tenth of a percent of world GOLD stocks.

(Fri May 29 1998 19:52 - ID#227290)
Market Coments
To all:

My perspectvie was totally routed last week. So what's next?

In the XAU, both long term MAs have been broken. the uptrend line from the January bottom has been broken The stochastics on the weekly chart are pointed straight down and are only at mid-range with much more room to run.

On the daily chart, the stochastics are very oversold and so we could see a bounce. Also, when a trend line is broken, there is a tendency for the price to move back and retest it. So we could see the XAU rally back up to just above 80 and then we'll have to see if the break down passes the retest or not.

In gold, the same exact remarks apply as in the XAU; you can reread the previous paragraph and substitute "gold" for "XAU." with one exception. The daily stochastics have not reached oversold levels in gold, but a non-confirmation divergence has been set up on the daily chart. Simply, the price has moved lower but the stochastics have not fallen as far as the last dip. This is a bullish sign, although since it is on the daily chart, it doesn't carry a lot of weight.

The chart is probably telling us that a retracement rally is near to beginning.

Barrick dropped 1.75 this week and fell below both major MAs. Its weekly stochastics are also pointing downward and are just at mid-range, with plenty of room to go downside.

In silver, the uptrend line got broken 2 1/2 weeks ago. The price has fallen way below both major MAs.. But the stochasitcs on both the daily and weekly chart are dreastically oversold and a retracement of the downmove is needed to correct the imbalance.

To resume the bull market, silver needs to get back over its uptrend line ( 5.80 ) and get above both MAs ( 6.20 ) . Until then, any advance is a retracement.

The US dollar Index continues to hold above its 200-day MA. Last Friday, when it plunged to its 200-day, that action was followed by an immediate reversal to the upside. The trading even left an island reversal on the daily chart. So the dollar looks strong. This week's action also took the price above the 100-day MA and the stochastics look like they are about to turn positive again.

Hopefull mentioned key reversals on several commodity charts today. I have found that daily key reversals on a Friday don't mean much. And with today being the last day of the month, I've found that trading generally on that day is counter-cyclical. You may check this out if you like. There's a lot of book squaring and the charts tend to do a lot of window dressing on the last day of any month, although I don't know why that is.

Things look much worse to me today than last Friday, when there was still a glimmer of hope the uptrend lines would hold. Now that they have broken down, the next chance for gold to shine will be on a retest of those breakdowns.

That's the bad word. Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Fri May 29 1998 19:54 - ID#43460)
Retired soldier, that is exactly what I wanted to say, to echo your sentiments

(Fri May 29 1998 19:56 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re epa on converters
There's a lot of chemistry in converters. Maybe a few minerals as gas additives could solve this problem. How about using gold dust!?

(Fri May 29 1998 19:56 - ID#27341)
Monday ?
Sitting in my small world looking out, i would have to say, monday is looking bad for the Dow, the main-stream media is now starting to cover thier BUTTS, and so are some top level string pullers, 87, 97, 98, third strike and your OUT ?.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:02 - ID#43460)
buying on credit
After the posts today about buying on credit I'm ashamed to say that last fall when silver reached its bottom I bought some casting grain on credit. But it wasn't my fault! You see, I felt inferior because I never had an electric train when I was a child and my parents spanked me when I didn't act according to their medieval antisocialist belief system. Now that the loan is long paid off I need a government grant to prevent it from happening again. $600,000 would be about right, if there are any senators or congressment reading this who would like to atone for the damage they've caused my self esteem. ( %-^] )

(Fri May 29 1998 20:04 - ID#43460)
chas re gold dust
Thats a good idea, chas! Maybe you could apply for a grant, too! ;-^ )

Bully Beef
(Fri May 29 1998 20:04 - ID#259282)
I think Canada and Austrailyer should have a nuclear arms race.
Who can whiz the farthest? Maybe just a beer drinking contest. I hear they can compete.They could be contenders.Go gold ! Someday!

(Fri May 29 1998 20:05 - ID#197184)
post reply

post reply

(Fri May 29 1998 20:06 - ID#190411)
The whole of the US economy is sitting on a plate to be devoured by the trial lawyers.
This last is veeeeeeryyy old news as can be evidenced by your nose.
Sulphorous crudes make that hydrogen sulfide smell in auto exhaust.
The big oils, and the big three autos combined scientific resources to develop a low polluting auto fuel.
Of course, the central govt. ignored their study, and settled for the least "Enviornmentally Friendly". Got to give paybacks to ADM.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:10 - ID#197184)
Armstrong vs Butler
Received a Broadcast EMAIL from
Princeton Site
Ted Butler
Dear Ted:

It seems that whatever I have to say somehow you twist it around and just
get my point or take it personal.

1 ) I do not support the CFTC. I am very concerned this this agency is
only in power and profit - not in defending the market against

2 ) I am very concerned about their latest proposed rules to regulated the
business. They have been trying for years to get their hands on the cash
particularly the metals. My fear is that these rules are about expanding
their power. You might recall the CFTC attacking foreign banks and banning
them from trading in the US following the Hunt deal. While they eventually
lost in court, they tried to expand their power worldwide back then.

3 ) There is a difference between buying silver and moving it to
non-reported warehouses than buying silver and leaving in the US. This has
about paper vs physical.

4 ) In my opinion, your concern about leasing is not justified. I advise a
few countries who lease their gold. Many of these smaller third world
nations do so because they DO NOT want to sell their gold. However, they
need the cash. They are borrowing money against an asset and in no way are
they trying to manipulate a market. If that were thase, they would leverage
that asset - they do not. Gold mines can borrow money cheaper against their
reserves but in turn the banks want to be assured that the collateral is
fixed - thus they sell forward.

5 ) While I have consistently believed that their would be a bull market
hopefully following a low in 1998, I also believe that it will be the
derivatives markets that help to accelerate that move. However, I believe
there is a HUGE difference between the derivatives markets used by specs
and created by the banks compared to legitimate leasing and gold loans. The
derivatives are NOT keep gold or silver down. They exist in the currencies,
bonds and just about everything else in sight. Many such instruments have
blown up in Japan, Korea and Asia. While the fallout has yet to make
headlines - I know first hand the damage they have caused overseas. But
keep one thing in mind. The banks who wrote the derivatives on Japanese
banks shares lost big time. The two biggest losers are well known French
banks - one of whom is not shutting down its officies in Tokyo.

The metals are not moving higher because it is not time. That time will
come when we begin to see a shift in the capital flows thus bringing about
a change in the global economy. Perhaps it is soon. Perhaps we must wait
another year. Right now, deflation is swirling all around us which in turn
is causing selling from these regions instead of buying. For now, Europeans
are too bullish on the Euro to be bothered by gold investment. When the
Euro doesn't pan out as they had hoped, you just might be shocked by a
shift in sentiment that will lead to a real sustainable bull market for
perhaps a 7-year run.

My view on silver is one of concern that the unreported stockpiles in
London may cause a similar situation to that of copper. I cannot see why
you would support a system where the dealers know the truth, have a insight
advantage that the general public does not, and then use that advantage to
both send silver soaring as well as then turn around against the longs and
go for their stops. I am in support of a fair market where inside
information is not intentionally withheld from the public for the benefit
of a few big trading houses in London.

Martin A. Armstrong

(Fri May 29 1998 20:10 - ID#27341)
OZ dont non of dem der nuks, given us fosters,or ++++.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:11 - ID#404246)
Re: WetGold (Mr. or Ms. HARDCASE@)


(Fri May 29 1998 20:14 - ID#411331)
@ all chartists: How accurate can graphical channels and projections be if a market is being
subjected to manipulation for political purposes as gold and silver apparently are. I understand the value of stochastics and moving averages, but don't these predictive tools assume greed, supply and demand as the primary market movers? Sorry if this question sounds naive.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:18 - ID#27341)
Good call

(Fri May 29 1998 20:19 - ID#288295)

I posed the same question a few days ago, on the subject of Elliott Waves, which ( according to Elliott and followers ) reflect particular emotions in the course of a bull market or a bear market. If emotions are not driving the markets, then these patterns may not necessarily apply, IMHO.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:19 - ID#190411)
Apparently, junk silver buyers haven't been resellers, as of late. Junk has been rising as a premium against spot, versus the -below premium a short time ago.
Maybe too many lukers at Kitco, that want to get whacked on their Y2K hoard.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:21 - ID#404246)
Re: Belize

I have spent some time in Central America and Belize so I will throw in my 2 cents. Personally I am going to stay in the US where I understand the game and have backup. Also there are some legal issues about taking your gold OUT of the USA that I don't like.

Winston I think Costa Rica is a lot larger than Belize. Better check it out.

The people of Belize are nice, but laid back isn't strong enough. You will quite often find your self checking to see if they are still

The official language is "kinda like" English. Quite often you can understand it. This leads to quite a few problems.

The government doesn't function, at least on a time scale you can understand. ( A bribe can return things to normal speeds but be careful how you deliver it. ( Ask for advice on how to do it before you try it. )

Mennonite farm communities would be a large plus, but I never talked with any while I was there.

I did not notice any racially based antagonism but that does not mean that they are not antagonistic for other reasons.

Bad Aspects of Belize:

Do not start a business and plan on using native labor. They will never understand your point of view nor be responsible for your property.

Some might call the black men of Belize trouble makers, but I would not. They are just bored, there is nothing much to do there and much of the time it is too hot for sex. The stuff I saw them do was mostly for entertainment not to be mean, of course the victims objected but they always do.

Bathrooms are hard to come by, and quite often don't work . Women hate this.

You can get almost anything but it takes quite a while.

IT IS HOT. IT IS REALLY HOT. IT IS IMPOSSIBLY HOT. IT IS UNBELIEVABLY HOT. Away from the coast there is no wind. The humidity is always over 90%. If you did not grow up in the far southern US,like Brownsville, you will not like it.

There are some really bad bugs there. Ants that live in the small branches of bushes and are meaner than the fire ants of the southern USA. Touch a bush and they swarm all over you. Children can die from it. So watch your little ones. Small flies that lay eggs on you that hatch out into inch long larva worms that burrow under your skin. I am sure there are others but those were the only ones that got me.

There are a few plants that are as bad as the bugs but I missed out on them.

Winston , while you are there be sure and take a boat ride up the Rio Dulce from the coast. It is a ride you won't forget. They used to have them daily.

I like Costa Rica better. The people are nicer if anything. There are lots of mountains so you can find a climate you like from cold and dry to wet and humid. The food is better and when I was there it was cheaper. It is only a few hundred miles further south than Belize. They are like the Swiss, you can keep a gun or any other weapon of destruction that you like in your home. I never understood their military service concept but the result is that half the men in a plaza are either off duty cops or reservist soldiers, most of which are armed ( but nicely hidden ) . It was very safe in the plazas of the cities, half the people there would try to stop anything the second it started, it was their duty. The corruption is MUCH LESS there than anywhere else in Central America. Don't try to bribe anyone other than a taxi driver.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:21 - ID#190411)
or, maybe I am wrong.
-and have fallen for some more of the hype.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:24 - ID#404246)
RJ said:

"Feel free to go back over the last couple days and read my posts. They are filled with incredibly useful facts and little known details of the PGM markets. All sources identified and all information less than 10 days old. As far as information is concerned on these pages, it doesn't get much better. Read the posts, very good info there. All offered during the course of this debate. "

"You really think I type fast? "

Right on. As much as I would prefer to not have to read farfel's quotes that you include in your post, the data in your replies is worth it.

I too, do not understand why he just keeps making it worse for himself by keeping on with the fight. Maybe him and WetGo will keep each other entertained for a while, they share a certain insensitivity to the real world.

If you don't type fast how do you have time to make all your post?

(Fri May 29 1998 20:27 - ID#404246)
mozel said:
In simple language, you are slave labor for the State. Very few readers on this site have mentally assented to the truth of this statement. Either their chains rest easy on them or they are reading it as my opinion, I suppose, and not as a QED from the legal facts. If any group should grasp these conclusions, it would be goldbugs. The fact so few have grasped them leads me to the inescapable conclusion that Americans at large will not grasp them for years, if ever. The governors fully understand the new power in their hands now that the people have no honest money that they actually own. The governed are clueless. In New America those who obey will be fed.

I understand I am a slave to the government. It's just not something I want to tell everyone nor do I want the USG to know that I know. If they knew I knew then they might try to help me.

You are right though, about Americans in general, they will not grasp the slavery idea unless it commercialized again. On a non-discriminatory basis of course.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:27 - ID#27341)
To be 60% right, hoppfully, forget the spellling, it helps if you consider all things in life?????

(Fri May 29 1998 20:28 - ID#286199)
Thanks for the Armstrong reply. My opinion of him is going up.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:30 - ID#404246)
Re: lakefoil (rangy)
Date: Fri May 29 1998 13:25

If rangy had the NERVE to fill the gap at 15/16 ( down from 1 1/2 ) then it better fill the gap at 3

I agree. I bought 5000 at 1 3/8.

Go rangy....

(Fri May 29 1998 20:33 - ID#404246)

I went back and read mozel's reply to you and I don't understand what you are so upset about. I admit that upon occasion mozel can be almost as insensitive as I am so maybe that is why I don't understand. Admittedly if it was sarcasm it wasn't good enough to get many points, but mindless........., that part confuses me.

Also what in your opinion is wrong with sarcasm. Kitco is full of it and I haven't heard you complain before. I myself enjoy a really good sarcastic comment even if aimed at me. I might retaliate but I will do it with a grin on my face.

Think about this. It is possible that mozel thought you were trying to tell him what to do. From reading your past post I don't think you would be real polite either if you thought someone was trying to tell you what to do.

I have got to go. Back much later for responses.

(Fri May 29 1998 20:45 - ID#411331)
@ALL: There is a great deal of info about how gold and gold equities act during a general market
correction, even one as severe as the crash of '29. I am reasonably sure that the XAU, already near multi-year lows will probably not crash, but does anybody out there know how silver and silver stocks acted during past corrections?

(Fri May 29 1998 20:49 - ID#340302)
@ALL...finally, I offer my apologies for my erroneous....
...Pegasus analysis, particularly to those who I may have influenced to purchase the stock. I stand by my analysis only in the sense that, in a more optimistic gold market, I believe the Pegasus creditors would have worked things out with the company and avoided bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the dominant feeling in the gold market is one of severe pessimism as the last two years have been an unmitigated disaster for gold investors.

Once in bankruptcy, unfortunately, management seems to have made no genuine efforts to protect the interests of the common shareholders, choosing to favor and protect its own interests. It's a dog eat dog world, that's for sure. No surprise there.

Although I have never met any of you face to face, nevertheless, I have obtained a good sense of your various personalities. I really believe there are a great group of guys posting on this forum. Sometimes there is a real family feeling here more so than any other web-site I have visited.

After some notable introspection, I have decided that, for the most part, my presence on this forum is unwelcome and driving some people to apoplexy. Moreover, it does bother me that I may have harmed some people here. If the truth be known, I do not get off on that. In general, I have avoided going ad hominem with anybody. It provides no real catharsis for me.

However, last night, while doing my imitation of RJ, the relentless persecutor, I saw myself regressing to something I do not like.

I first began posting on this forum about seven to eight months ago in the hopes that, with a little help from my education in the social sciences, I would help "change the negative perception" of gold...particularly given how incredibly downbeat goldbugs were at that time. I tried various voices ( from poet to religious preacher ) to stir things up and get goldbugs out of their deep blue funk until finally settling upon my true voice. In my own little way, I hope I succeeded.

There is a new poster on this forum, Gollum, and I believe he represents the essence of my philosophy about the American economy and precious metals. I think his posts are particularly intelligent and will more than amply fill any void I leave here. I suggest you read them closely.

I think the thing that bothers me the most about Wall Street today ( and I've addressed the matter on many occasions ) is the cavalier manner in which financial people make paper decisions that affect hundreds of thousands of people in very severe ways. Each restructuring is cheered...thousands of people thrown onto the streets is great for the share price and that's all that matters. American-style capitalism, in its existent form, is aberrational and unhealthy. It must evolve into something new and inspirational or people in this country will turn upon each other in wave after wave of violence. You need only look at our schools to see what is happening.

We must continue to examine the effects of each and every action we take in this world. For example, when someone deprecates a particular commodity like gold and hopes to sell it short into oblivion, does that same person stop for one moment to examine the effects his actions have upon hundreds of thousands of people who earn their livings from such a commodity? Of course's just some intellectual ego-juice game to white collars sitting in their plush, comfortable Wall Street offices.

I believe in Karma...I believe you cannot gain wealth at the expense of other people's suffering without somehow suffering the consequences yourself down the road. I am anything but a Saint ( too many past transgressions ) and I just hope my family will be spared any adverse Karmic repercussions. All you can do is strive to be humane.

My apologies for the random quality of this post.

My apologies to those I have upset. I wish you all good fortune and most notably, peace of mind.

Thanks & Good-bye.


(Fri May 29 1998 20:54 - ID#426220)

rhody asked:
"but does anybody out there know how silver and silver stocks acted during past corrections?"

Here is the answer - Remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before position to Internet locator:

(Fri May 29 1998 21:00 - ID#287193)
@ to All..something new in the East?....

@.. PC illiterate with many thank 's to ALL..
Since joining the Kitco-discussion forum 3 month ago, I have learned a lot about computers,
programs, URL's and www sites.

Let me tell you my story from "YESTERDAY ":

I checked in to Kitcoland after I had finished my shopping for some more gold -and silverstocks.
Just as about every day--snooping a bit here and there, and reading some of the world-renown
Kitco poetry. Starting with the 13:00 and thereafter time-slot, I was immediately was assured
that I had arrived in the 'Promised land'!
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 13:00
newtron ( Wither which way Moses ? Get off your asses, put down your shouvels,
Mr. Roosevelt done took us to ) ID#335184:
Copyright  1998 newtron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the Promised land !-----
Up and down the timeline I went and found lot of good things, even ='Revelation's from a GOD!
""John Disney__A ( Buddha says Platinum is naughty ) ID#24387:
Date: Thu May 28 1998 15:01
Jack ( Palladium revalations...What's next? Who unloaded? ) ""
I was inspired. This is better than all week or the last weekend.
My feelings elevated. A High came over me! I heard the angels sing:
""sharefin ( What's going on? ) ID#284255
They want it higher. Tickling the PREM
it's inspiring ""
And than I found this real goldbug:
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 13:33
2BR02B? ( @plusiotis resplendens ) ID#266105:
Compliments of dung beetle, worth a repost-- -""

I looked at it. I took fancy to it. In a snap I tried to hide this shiny bug from ANOTHER in
here: -
and than posting a diversion
but the "post-submitting' button gave no reply. What did I do wrong now? Password?
this kidgo gang :
laughing at me, shouting something French?
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 13:05
EB ( blooperblooperblooperblooperblooperblooperblooper ) ID#22956:
you'll get the hang of it........when you hit submit once that's enough"".
That was not I?
What's going on? Sure, now, I became embarrassed when realizing that someone else
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 13:09
sharefin ( PM Charts and Swing chart ) ID#284255:
Looks like someone pressed a button
But it's not working to well.""
Was on my tail ..-or--Another had discovered my fumbling ----

""Date: Thu May 28 1998 13:19
sharefin ( What's going on? ) ID#284255:
They just hit the button again.""
Yes, I expected that!
BoyL- ( I am talking to myself ) --Now they're coming after me with the 'Vest" -----

Where can I hide now? Yes, mozel was right! No hiding place.
Sure man, my monitor started to change color's ..the screen flashed  they got me: "Password! Password!".what happened? Will I loose my
License? ? I remembered the book about the law! Romans! Looking, looking.. [checking up-
on this when in trouble ( Ro. Chapters 1 to 6 ) - for some 50 years]. It is a kind of trading with a
stop-loss protection ! . -No outside help! Everybody on his own! No programs, no charts, no comments, no analysts, no questions and no answers! Very individual! Here it is:
"there is no respect of persons with God"! Socialists, Democrats, Nazis, Republicans, Liberals, Conservatives, Big or Small, Male or Females, Traders or Ignoramuses ! That is why it happened to me, Dummkopf!
Than the first clue arrived:
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 15:15
Nicodemus ( BART KINTER, Password... ) ID#335379:
Hello Bart:
The password block just disappears and does not tell me if it did or did not accept...
other than the fact that I cannot get through....
Is the password being used to monitor traffic? Seems a little Orwelian
Please explain... Excellent site ""

What a relieve! I was not the only guy they're after--But look ,--here comes more help..
from Another -but no- ouch--more screen jazz- 'restricted zone'- help does not get to me.
Oh no, my screen expands 50%--here it is again--User name:? ..password:?..! High Noon!
High time to post a question:
"".Servhard ( @ Dear Bart...Yes this is a super forum ) ID#287193:
and the very best on the www.
Today I was in a few talk-sites and all are very slow, S.I. site awful !
But!!!! My screen on Kitco is at least 35% wider than normal.
Did I do something ..maybe punch a wrong button??
Help! Help!
Thank you,
Servhard"" ( I had to be nice--right? )

---againfor a while ( twinkling of an eye ) I see nothing.
mm-- not sure my post registered - than --what is this? -suddenly my Crash-Monitor spits out:
'Danger! Shut down!'- What now? I am in the dark! Computer down.
The 'help' can not get to me!
Not sure my post got to Bart! Should I call the Proprietor and plead for forgiveness?
Maybe he is to busy. No way to get in touch with gagnrad--or mozel or--oris--or Tyoung
-or others for help. Am I another '223'?
My little 'Gruetzkopf' moving full speed. ???Maybe someone will call me??? But than, hey,
Nobody knows me? I am only a Handle! Again- this would not be the first hard-disk I lost.

I remembered the night when a very generous Kitco-boy offered some free 'bookmarks'.
Yes, I touched that 'Enter'--and, let me tell you--[I happened to be in a: at the time] -for over
an hour the drive called for more and more disks. Had no clue what was going on.I still
have seven mysterious icons on my screen {left over from that night!}
I decided to call 'DEAR BART' and of course, Bart had a very good answer for me and
--- 'a solution'.
Sure, sure, now even I could hear the thunder! Thank you Bart!
But than, no more poetry reading today! ( Date: Thu May 28 1998. )
But today is Another day.
Sorry to say, my gold and silver stocks are down a bit
The PC is alive and well and my screen humbly shrank back to the normal size.
And look here how the troops tried to help me out of the pit:-
""Date: Thu May 28 1998 16:05
G-spot ( Servhard...must be your browser.. ) ID#431116:
Date: Thu May 28 1998 16:22
HenryD ( Servhard ( @ Dear Bart...Yes this is a super forum ) ID#287193: ) ID#36156:
Servhard; Are you using Kitco's Frames version? If so, did you know that the left
margin that separates the discussion screen from the graphs screen ( on your left ) is
adjustable? This allows you to change the amount of screen you allocate to the
discussion area. Place your mouse pointer on the separator line, click and drag to suit
your preference. Also works to fix some of the posts that show up with irregular
formatting. ""
( I may not have seen all the postings )
It may have been the browser. I was not in the Frames version.
Thank you, thank you ALL. It was OLE me. I tried to correct around too much. Forbidden!
Now I hope you forgive for this long post and the' here a little and there a little' plagiarizing.-
Best regards,

(Fri May 29 1998 21:06 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

See ya'.

Don't let the door hit your ............


(Fri May 29 1998 21:13 - ID#228128)
Yesterday someone posted an SI post from the Veneroso group in which they said a CB was making inordinately large numbers of hits on you golden-eagle site. Can you elaborate and otherwise let us in on this story. For example, which CB that might be and its significance. Thanks in advance.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:13 - ID#252391)
Farfel, don't go
The only problem you have Farfel is that your writing is too godd and your timing not. Hey when we are all getting beat to death or at least our accounts are taking a beating we tend to get a little edgy.

I always enjoy your perspective

(Fri May 29 1998 21:14 - ID#288295)
Farfel - old friend,If you choose to leave - it will be a loss for all of us. I for one have enjoyed your posts very much, and they have left a permanent mark here... Please drop me a line if you would like to be pursuaded to hang around with the rest of the

(Fri May 29 1998 21:17 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel .....

You are right

Gollum is MUCH better


(Fri May 29 1998 21:24 - ID#411331)
@ Farfel: Your posts have inspired a determination to continue to seek out the truth.
Gold is not just an economic entity, a commodity, it is a social, artistic and political force that transcends history. Your point of view is much appreciated, and I hope you will continue to visit with us on this site. Thank you for your insights

(Fri May 29 1998 21:25 - ID#252391)
Preacher - right on the money for next weekeny
I agree with your technical appraisal, which it seems other posters do as well, which has me worried. We've got the wild card of the Euro backing to contend with which might throw some wierd noise into the picture. Looking like it will be a case of selling the rally on the news ten days from now..

With the stock market likely to head lower,Monday, given the media positioning that I too sense, gold mining equities will in all liklihood have another fall early in the week which I would look upon as a buying opportunity for what I'll call, for lack of a better phrase, the soon to arrive EURO/Gold blip.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:32 - ID#207145)
For what its worth ( ( ( ( verry little ) ) ) , Go fishing the month of june. It has never been worth the trouble in June. June is a suck 8ss month for Gold.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:34 - ID#207145)
The same could apply for stocks.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:37 - ID#207145)
however, might, might, m i g h t be o.k. I hope so, since i'm 100%.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:40 - ID#307271)
Farfel. Everyone who cares about the truth to be found in real money eagerly waits for and thirstily reads your carefully thought-out analyses. To browse Kitco without finding the old F* would be like eating bagels without cream cheese. Please reconsider for the sakes of those who depend on your ambiance. Thanks. Sorry I didn't say so sooner.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:42 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re gold dust
In gas for converters was sort of a joke after thought. If I thought I could get a grant in less than a year, I might try. Thanx for the idea. Charlie

(Fri May 29 1998 21:46 - ID#252391)
Think you're right. Seems my recollection is that June is a nothing month
unless the grains are hot. Also doesn't oil have a pattern of bottoming in June.

Probably could use a good rest, at that. May very well take your suggestion., particularlr in view of what I've been reading that market action is unpredictable and largely random and that the real key is inventory/consumption rations. When inventories get low realtive to consumption up we'll go. June is setting up to have too many negatives, including the seasonal, to be much of a play, what with everybody on vacation or going on vacation.

Good advice, reduce trading, reduce Kitcoing, increase sleeping, exercise more, do something else productive and good for the mind set in June - darn good idea.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 29 1998 21:48 - ID#209265)
hipshot - thank you . . .
for the info. on Miramar. I just got back to Kitco, so I hope you see this message. Your assistance is greatly appreciated.

- Steve

(Fri May 29 1998 21:52 - ID#57232)
Pakistan contemplates more nuclear tests - when will this stop?
All: More to come from Pakistan.

China ( and the US ) have been major sources of nuclear technology for Pakistan and India. My intuitive guess is that the profit motive has been the driving force behind both US and Chinese actions.

I realize this is a common ( but unfortunate and inexcusable ) consequence of overly relaxed peacetime policies regarding the weapons of war. And ( mis ) deeds such as this eventually tend to return to the sender.

China is not far away from India and Pakistan, falloutwise. We will not escape unscathed I fear, eventually, either. Probably nuclear terrorism some time in the future.

It is never right that the innocents of this world should suffer from the misdeeds of their leaders.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:52 - ID#57232)
Pakistan contemplates more nuclear tests - when will this stop?
All: More to come from Pakistan.

China ( and the US ) have been major sources of nuclear technology for Pakistan and India. My intuitive guess is that the profit motive has been the driving force behind both US and Chinese actions.

I realize this is a common ( but unfortunate and inexcusable ) consequence of overly relaxed peacetime policies regarding the weapons of war. And ( mis ) deeds such as this eventually tend to return to the sender.

China is not far away from India and Pakistan, falloutwise. We will not escape unscathed I fear, eventually, either. Probably nuclear terrorism some time in the future.

It is never right that the innocents of this world should suffer from the misdeeds of their leaders.

(Fri May 29 1998 21:53 - ID#207145)
Matching orders at 4 caused the drop,
and, the remainder of those orders will be matched Mon. morn. So there will be a drop. The holliday time is supposed to be strong. So is the beginning of the month. I don't like the looks of this market. Nothing looks good. No commodities, nothing but bonds, and dollar.

(Fri May 29 1998 22:13 - ID#342376)
@ Farfel
Kitco would not be the same without you, my friend. I know that the intention of your posts was for the most part good, the impact of some of your comments was a direct attack. Communicaton on the internet can leave out all the subtlties of tone, facial expression, and emotion. I for one would like to see RJ and Farfel become friends. We as goldbugs see a deteriorating, manipulative, unstable and unjust world unfolding before us. We all have a vision of how it could be better. Can we at least aspire to be a fair, forgiving, nonmanipulative, stable and just discussion group?

(Fri May 29 1998 22:18 - ID#342376)
@ Farfel
Kitco would not be the same without you, my friend. I know that the intention of your posts was for the most part good, the impact of some of your comments was a direct attack. Communicaton on the internet can leave out all the subtlties of tone, facial expression, and emotion. I for one would like to see RJ and Farfel become friends. We as goldbugs see a deteriorating, manipulative, unstable and unjust world unfolding before us. We all have a vision of how it could be better. Can we at least aspire to be a fair, forgiving, nonmanipulative and just discussion group?

(Fri May 29 1998 22:25 - ID#342376)
@ Farfel
Kitco would not be the same without you, my friend. I know that the intention of your posts was for the most part good, the impact of some of your comments was a direct attack. Communicaton on the internet can leave out all the subtlties of tone, facial expression, and emotion. I for one would like to see RJ and Farfel become friends. We as goldbugs see a deteriorating, manipulative, unstable and unjust world unfolding before us. We all have a vision of how it could be better. Can we at least aspire to be a forgiving, nonmanipulative and just discussion group?

(Fri May 29 1998 22:25 - ID#342376)
@ Farfel
Kitco would not be the same without you, my friend. I know that the intention of your posts was for the most part good, the impact of some of your comments was a direct attack. Communicaton on the internet can leave out all the subtlties of tone, facial expression, and emotion. I for one would like to see RJ and Farfel become friends. We as goldbugs see a deteriorating, manipulative, unstable and unjust world unfolding before us. We all have a vision of how it could be better. Can we at least aspire to be a forgiving, nonmanipulative and just discussion group?

(Fri May 29 1998 22:26 - ID#210114)
Swiss Gold Sales Will Happen


29 May


Swiss Gold Policy

The Swiss Finance Ministry issued a press release on 27 May 1998
on "a new constitutional foundation for the Swiss National Bank." This
confirms that Swiss government policy is to sever the official link
between gold and the Swiss franc. The Public Policy Center of the
Council has been studying these issues using an outside consultant.
The following is a note of his main conclusions based on extensive
interviews with principal Swiss monetary and financial officials
conducted over the last 2 weeks. An unofficial translation of the press
release issued by the Finance Ministry is attached.

Key Results

Timetable, process and structure for sale of excess gold have now
snapped into focus.

not likely to start before 2000
will sell over 10 - 20 year period, although Swiss Finance
Minister Villiger indicated a more agressive schedule of 5 - 7
amounts of 50 - 100 tonnes per year
will sell less into weak markets, but more into strong markets
total confirmed at approximately 1400 tonnes
excess gold will be shifted from Swiss National Bank ( SNB ) to
special fund ( s )

SNB, Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) and non-governmental political
sources all confident that the constitutional amendments and enabling
legislation required for gold sales will most likely be approved.

Christoph Blocher and the Swiss People's Party, previously identified
as potential opponents, appear to support the initiative as a way to
assist solvency of the national pension system now forecast to go into
deficit in 2004 without increased funding.

Solidarity Fund - not clearly popular - will be separated from the above
processes and is unlikely to be a blocking factor.


Process revolves around

constitutional amendment to remove mandatory link with gold,
amendment of currency and bank laws to remove gold

MOF timetable calls for

legislative approval of constitutional amendment by February
referendum June 1999
parallel legislative action on enabling acts with implementation
September 1999, 90 days after referendum ( mandatory time
period for gathering signatures to challenge referendum ) .

MOF timetable, they admit, may not be realistic. Referendum dates
occur on a strict quarterly schedule so if legislature slow in approving
constitutional amendment, referendum date would slip by 3 months.
This issue has some priority, but the enabling acts may well not move
so quickly. SNB legal affairs department officials do not believe sales
can legally take place before 2000 - 2001.

(Fri May 29 1998 22:27 - ID#342376)
Sorry about the repeats...

(Fri May 29 1998 22:45 - ID#413109)
@ Rhody
Date: Fri May 29 1998 20:14
rhody ( @ all chartists: How accurate can graphical channels and projections be if a market is being )
Would like to take a crack at replying-
Technical work, IMHO, is nothing more than a tools, enabling one to see, what he or she may perceive.
It can be, to a minor extent, used as a method of predicting the likelyhood of future moves, but basically
if one has the forsight to interpret fundamentals, and uses technical tools to confirm this interpretation,
it puts one ahead of the crowd. Herd behavior should always be avoided, so a policy of what to do, con-
firmed by the picture of a graph that bears our the policy- is the way to go.

As stated, ad nauseum, I do long term work, and find technical analysis helpful. If markets are manipulated
or not is questionable. The large money players, or smart money, usually buys low and sells high. Think
of the hype you get at both tops and bottoms. The optimism and pessimism is rampant. The papers or
other media have the hype as lead stories, at tops and bottoms, and the charts ( long term ) will confirm
one's theories with certain patterns and volume, just to mention some ways of seeing the larger picture.

As some of the short term traders will tell you 1 ) the trend's your friend 2 ) don't need to guess tops and bottoms
play the meaty, profitable larger part of a move. 3 ) buy on dips, or sell on run-ups, if you feel it's time to get out.
Better to be early rather than late. Be in the market up to the sleeping level. Don't be over extended.
The good traders make money, but the percentage of those is very very small.

The Armstrong reply to Butler is worth rereading- He has a long term philosophy based on an economic
background, apply this to a philosophy of investment, and have it confirmed by technicals ( pictures ) and
you're on your way to success. Holding long term is the answer for most. I've learned this the hard way.

One could go on, but there are books on the subject, and I trust I've answered your question satisfactorily.

(Fri May 29 1998 22:47 - ID#410215)
..... Gigantor .....


"I'd like to hear your view of possible Japanese dishoarding, and, just how much plat is stashed in Japan anyway? quick run through the numbers looks like about 15moz has been *salted* away in the land that gave the world Changi Prison, The Burma Railway, and Manchuria, and may soon try to take the Kurils back. 15 Moz, a decent order of magnitude in this game, yes?"

Has set my thinking in a different and interesting direction. I will ponder your ponderous poser rather than sling semi serious suppositions.



The Cast of Her Eye:

The JM stuff is at the office, but I have a PE in my hand this moment

wait.. we will magnify..

( Significant Pause )

I have always found the cast of the Asian female eye to be extremely appealing and certainly a gift from God. I have studied well this natural wonder in its native environment and lingered long on its arching subtleties and softly framed lash..... ( Friday Night Talk )

I must report the Lady Liberty on the face of the PE is a round eye, more Grecian than Asian.

I do believe, though, that some amount of Asianization of the stern visage of Miss Torch would be an improvement and even more accurately reflect the modern make up of Merka. Problem with that of course is that most Asians enter via the Pacific. I am therefore properly positioned on the correct coast to continue research. I will apply for Federal Grant Money as this is cutting edge research which should be subsidized by the rest of youse. ( Merkans, I mean ) .


(Fri May 29 1998 23:00 - ID#153102)
And now we know why Belize rhymes with Disease. Thanks for your post.

Until people are prepared to fight for the right to honest gold coin money, then they will be paid in military scrip and all their "reform movements" will be led from mirage to mirage by attorneys and bankers. They still promote the "work ethic". What happened to the "pay ethic" ? ( Sorry if the insensitivity in that question offended ? )

I read the posts about inflation, deflation, recession, return on investment in Notes, capitalization with Notes for Nothing ... I get the distinct impression people are mentally lost and running in circles. Keynes was so right. Not one in a million will figure it out. Debt for currency has got to be the greatest creator of utter confusion since the Tower of Babel. And, hey, call me a televangelist if you will, but it is a recorded and archelogical fact that usury was the practice of the priests of Baal. It says "In God We Trust" on the greenback and since it's founded on interest on bonds, it seems evident to me the trusted god there is Baal. It couldn't be the unseen God of Moses who said don't practice usury, could it ? Well, I don't want to offend the godless, the heathen, the pagan, or the apostate with insensitivity, so I propose they do a science experiment in the privacy of their homes with the formula of 10 for 11. Just to see how many different ways it comes out.

If you think you know the game here, Hardcase, keep your eyes peeled because I think the rules are going to change. The two Presidents who took this noble Great Experiment into the celler this far were both lawyers: Lincoln and FDR. And Clinton is a lawyer, too.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:03 - ID#45173)
Spock: Selling gold reserves to prop up gov't pension system is
a clever political move for a government that really wants to sell gold. Wonder how well that proposition would go over here in the US where we don't even tie our gold reserves to our currency. Why don't we sell gold to help cover Social Security? We'll see if it still seems like such a good idea by the middle of next year when it's likely we'll see significant turmoil in currencies. And I wonder what's their idea of a weak versus a strong market. Is the current market, for example, a strong or a weak one? A market that tanks at the very idea of Swiss gold sales probably doesn't fit the criteria. Thx for the post. Your thoughts?

(Fri May 29 1998 23:04 - ID#411112)
FARFEL SNAP OUT OF IT.....good Lord man we all blow calls I've been pushing gold for 20 years

how many times have I've been right,its a
feeling a conviction,give me a man who sells
with conviction any day of the week......and
yes even if he is wrong...... I learn't a long time ago that when you give advice no matter how good the intention,it is a no win situation......example.....a client calls me up and says should I sell? if I say yes and the market goes higher after he sells ..I'am the idiot.........if I say no and the market goes lower.guess what...I'am still the best your odds are always 50/50...better odds than Vegas and a lot better tan the lottery.........outside of that it is your take on things that is more important.......go for a walk chill out take a few days off then get your butt back here

(Fri May 29 1998 23:04 - ID#252127)

Better the Swiss Authorities make waves in the other direction, so that the gold price will achieve its fair value of $650, or greater. With that kind of of backing for the SF, their pension system would not be in any danger.
Also with a fair price their country and rest of the world would be far better off.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:09 - ID#210114)
Swiss Sales
While I understand that the sales will be staggered over a period of 10 years, it would appear that the writing may be on the wall for gold. All it would take would be a similar announcement by another major European central bank to kill off the idea of gold as a worthy finacial assett to hold.

Time will tell. ECB announcement crucial. I got this articel from the WGC home page. It also said the Swiss still believe in gold as a reserve asset etc.... Who knows what's going on in their minds.

Buckler's pages are now up. Buy signal dead.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:13 - ID#286279)
hey farf
Maybe you will come back to Kitco sometime in the future. Meanwhile hang out and relax at Kitco Bar & Grill.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:16 - ID#225273)
Jims, thanx
Thank you for those kind words. I believe it was you who was right on the money last weekend, congratulations.
You were looking at some things I don't consider. Last weekend, I saw that things had not broken down and wanted to give gold every chance to hold the line. I couldn't do it and couldn't bounce back.

We could be close to a bottom, but no technical indicator I follow says that is so. A nice bounce is about all I see at present. This could change and hopefully it will. but until it does, then I'll remain cautious.
One pleasant surprise this week has been Arizona Star, which I bought to take advantage of a runup in the gold price. It dropped only one penny this week despite the $7 drop in gold.
Count your blessings.

Happy weekend,

The Preacher

(Fri May 29 1998 23:18 - ID#411112)
RJ........ olive branch to farfel.....Yes


(Fri May 29 1998 23:21 - ID#257148)
for Sports fans
Half time score Super 12 Finals, Canterbury Crusaders 3, Auckland Blues.

Canterbury has never beaten Auckland at Eden Park. One excellent game of footie. back later.

Thanks for considering my poser.


(Fri May 29 1998 23:21 - ID#225273)
STeve in To,,, Virginia Gold

I think Virginia is in the top echelon of exploration companies. It has a lot of money. It has several projects. It has joint-ventures with several majors on many of these properties.
It has capable, dedicated management.

It has everything except a deposit, which is why it's still an exploration company. This is the type of company, though, that holds the best odds of finding a deposit because it has so many irons in the fire.

Also, the Zone 32 project in Quebec, ( all of its projects are in Quebec ) , has 250,000 ounces of gold and could develop into a deposit. The mineralized zone seems to pinch and swell. Last year, after the initial discovery and great fanfare, the zone pinched and the drillers thought they were quickly running out of the zone.
At the end of the program though, they drilled one deep hole and saw evidence the zone was swelling back open. So this year they hope to jump in and prove up more tonnage.
And Zone 32 is 100% owned by Virginia.

This is a premier company for what it is: grassroots exploration with no deposit. One should come either this year or next.
Hope this helps.

The Preacher

(Fri May 29 1998 23:35 - ID#45173)
The idea of the Swiss selling gold to raise money
for a government entitlement, rather than by traditional means such as raising taxes, does suggest they now truly view gold as a commodity for sale. If the Swiss see it that way, then gold moves another leap farther away from its once uncontested position as international money.

"Timetable, process and structure for sale of excess gold have now snapped into focus."

The operative word here is "excess."

"This confirms that Swiss government policy is to sever the official link between gold and the Swiss franc."

If there is no link between gold reserves and the currency, why keep any gold at all? What is necessary and what is excess? Necessary for what? Excess of what? Many riddles in this. Perhaps they want their reserves to not exceed ECB requirements.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:45 - ID#43349)
We need diversity of opinion. We need dynamic
exploration of rarely trodden paths. We need
the humbleness of sometimes being wrong and
the ego inflation of sometimes being right.
We need people like Farfel, RJ, Aragon, Jeil,
and all the many others that make this group
the unique arena for discussion that it is.

Farvel stands up expresses and defends his
views, sometimes vehemently so, but he's got
the guts to bare his heart. We need that.

If you leave, Farfel, you will be diminishing
us. That would be a greater cost than any
other you might feel responsible for.

Your great antogonist of late, RJ, also has
guts. He too stands and swings his sword toe
to toe.

You two may feel like opposites, but in a way
you are the same. Yang and Yin. Two sides of
the same coin.

In the heat of battle, the lonely field of
battle, we sometimes lose sight of all our
fellows struggling in their own individual
clouds of dust, and lose sight of the whole.

I don't know if gold will ever come into it's
own or not. Just as our forefathers did not
know if their struggles would ever amount to
a hill of beans or not. Maybe it's not whether
we succeed or not in what we believe in, but
rather that we make the attempt.

(Fri May 29 1998 23:47 - ID#410215)
..... Everybody needs a Theme Song .....

OK, since you are a FORIEGNER to these shores and know not Gigantor, nor even perhaps "Speed Racer"?. If you know Speed Racer, you have an idea of the animation quality. The song for Gigantor goes like this:

Gi GAAN tooor

Gi GAAN tooor

Gi GAAA AAAaaan tooor

Gi GAAN toor

Aurator fits nicely, yes?

(Fri May 29 1998 23:50 - ID#403274)
RJ, my friend... you simply do not know when to keep you damned mouth shut!
Whatever respect and admiration I held for you now lays on the residual slime of your parting shots to F*. You're not at all the gentleman I thought you had the potential to be.

Congratulations. The victory you so undeservedly claim is at last yours: THE KITCO KING!



(Fri May 29 1998 23:57 - ID#45173)
I guess you win, RJ
We lose.