Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:01 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
I have a good friend who works at the bankruptcy court. She advises me that many bankruptcies do not have much to do with people falling on hard times. They find that the bankruptcies increase when credit is free and the banks aren't so particular about who they lend to. Many of these people have filed for bankruptcy several times, because it is so easy. Our legal system has made it easy and painless to file bankruptcy and the d--- fool lenders lend to folks who have bad credit when money is free. My wife and I just received offers in the mail to have one hundred dollars credited to our account if we would open a credit card account.
There are too many similarities for us not to feel threatened.
So much from the era of the 20's is being replayed now.

Being observant of these trends
And taking the appropriate action
Some of us will be able to avoid the worst of it.

At least I'm hoping I can.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:01 - ID#247273)
Your muse on the Sun and its variations. I cannot help but observe that the sun is under its own guidance, energy, and variability. IT is certainly true that outside influences ( like the old Gunsmoke series on TV ) cause temporary perturbations in the system, sometimes dramatic, like the asteroid that deposed the dino's, but I cannot help but think that the inherent variability and periodicity of the sun must have a life of its own, that we do not understand. The sun is still the boss in this part of the galaxy, and has more to say about events and changes than any other influence around. IMHO. thanks for your knowledge and insight.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:03 - ID#247273)
please repost the Dollar and the fed...


John Disney__A
(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:03 - ID#24135)
Lincoln and Stocastics
For RT
Life's too short .. Fighting was eating into my
horse racing time. Im really a retroactive refugee
from the Civil War. Im still PO'd at SHERMAN and LINCOLN
never mind Hitler and Stalin and the Social engineers
who came later.

For Reify ..
First .. One cant look at DD as if it were in isolation
of gold .. DD will go as gold goes and in spades.
The MAIN THING HOWEVER on The DD chart to me is the
move in January from 1.5 to 2 which went fast and on
little accumulated volumn. Thus this region to me is
vulnerable on a breakdown at 2.25. So I see downside
risk which support at 2.25 - 2.5 may/may not protect
me from.
The stocastics dont impress as a kiss and fall can
happen here as well as it did on the prior attempt to
Also at 290-295 I believe DD is losing dough.
I would not buy at this level. If I would not BUY
then I should SELL as I dont believe in HOLD.
If stocastics cross .. I will hold off sales and
ride what I have left ( selling is not easy anyway as
no one seems interested )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:06 - ID#284255)
The Dollar and the Fed.................

The beautiful simplicity of it all in words so eloquent written by Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley:
An asset bubble can only be sustained by external liquidity. When Japan's bubble burst in 1990, the subsequent outflow of Japanese liquidity fueled credit bubbles throughout Asia. In economies with no control over asset supply, it led to overinvestment. In Hong Kong, with tight control over land supply, it led to asset inflation. Japanese liquidity no longer flows into Asia. Instead, it is going to Europe and the US. It is unlikely that Hong Kong can sustain its property bubble in the current environment.
The Hong Kong government, in the end, will have to cut taxes or even give tax rebates to stop the economy from sliding further. The deflation of an asset bubble is contractionary, which leads to a rise in the savings rate in response to diminishing wealth. The only effective macroeconomic tool, in the absence of a monetary policy, is to reduce taxes. Hong Kong has accumulated fiscal reserves equivalent to one-third of GDP. This is the time that the government should deploy these resources. As the newly elected legislature starts to put pressure on the government, we believe that Hong Kong government will have to cut taxes. Any delay, though, would reduce the effectiveness of such a policy.
We will get an extremely bullish scenario in Gold one way or the other, IMO. There will be no avoiding it. The only real difficult element to predict is when in time it will occur.Probably when the fed is forced to raise interest rates not because the economy is overheating, but rather because the liquidity bubble is bursting.
here it is , yet another sign.
every time we have moved the dollar from "folding money" to "change", inflation hit.
IMHO they just never watch the single dollars close enough when it comes to money supply. With all this other new money the funny $100 & $50 bills. Now the $20 and a new dollar coin. this may just do it.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:09 - ID#57232)
Uncharted waters
sharefin: I think AG and RR are moving into a time when there is little reference except the 20's, leading up to 1929. We are having our excess production capacity -- worldwide. Our commodity prices are collapsing -- for now. Nothing to indicate that the price of gold should go up -- in US dollars. The US was the last 'chair' standing in 1929. Will this happen again? Will there be other countries that have had their worst when the US economic system eventually follows the lead of the rest of the world?

I sincerely hope so.

One thing that is hard to determine from history is the value placed on gold during the beginning of the great depression, as the price was fixed. All I have to look at are the Canadian gold stock prices. My manually plotted graphs indicate that these stocks did not bottom until the Dow went from 380 on about Sept 1, 1929 to an intermediate term bottom of 200 on about Nov 15, 1929. Gold stocks rallied briefly ( up about 40% ) for a few months, and fell back down until FDR raised the price of gold. It is hard to translate to a floating dollar/gold price, but I would guess that gold stocks would not rally until after the big one in a similar deflationary period as this one.

I know we all have discussed this before, but I thought the potential seriousness of the time merited a repeat. Of course, the final devaluation may be years away -- not months. Hard to say.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:11 - ID#27499)
Inflation looming
Good morning! Nine degrees C and raining - Finnish summer! Greetings from Krugman in the morning paper.

PAUL KRUGMAN: Pity Alan Greenspan
The US Federal Reserve knows what the enthusiastic proponents of a 'new economy' do not - that it should raise interest rates
These are happy times for US economic pundits, but nail-biting ones for its central bankers.
For the past few months the data on the US economy have been unusually obliging - allowing both dour believers in traditional limits to growth and ebullient believers in the new economy to feel confirmed in their faith. But the same data place the Federal Reserve in a bind, indicating ever more clearly what the Fed should do - namely raise interest rates - while making it politically impossible to act on that knowledge.
So far this year, the US economy has continued its winning streak, growing at rates well above the two-point-something that traditional economists regard as its long-term potential, yet with headline measures of inflation, such as the consumer price index, remaining quiescent. So why, ask the New Economy types, meddle with success? Inflation is dead, old limits to growth have been abolished; Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, shouldn't raise rates, he should consider cutting them.
But old-style macro-economists look at different numbers. They see an unemployment rate that keeps on declining - good news in itself, but since there must be some lower limit on unemployment, an indication that recent growth rates cannot continue unabated. In fact, the historical relationship between growth and unemployment known as Okun's Law remains intact, suggesting that the economy's potential growth remains less than 2.5 per cent.
To raise that long-run growth rate the economy would have to achieve a sustained increase in the rate at which it raises output per worker; but productivity, after two good years, was dismal in the most recent quarter. Of course those numbers bounce around a lot, but that is precisely the point: the latest bad news on productivity reinforces the Old Economy view that the previous good news was no more than a routine statistical blip.
Meanwhile, wages are gradually moving into the red zone, with year-on-year increases at their highest levels since the early 1980s.
Among the Old Economy crowd, the story line runs like this: underlying inflationary pressures have been building steadily over the past two years, but have been masked by a series of one-time events - the savings in benefit costs due to the shift to cost-conscious health maintenance organisations ( HMOs ) , the decline in import prices as the dollar has surged against the yen and D-Mark, and the slump in world commodity prices as Asia has plunged into crisis. Sooner or later these special events will end, or even go into reverse. When they do the US will find inflation quite alive. Share prices, which can only be justified if the US economy is poised to begin decades of extraordinary growth, will swoon.
Now consider the Fed's dilemma. While Mr Greenspan remains carefully enigmatic in his pronouncements, there is no question that most Fed staff remain Old Economists - and rightly so. After all, where will the US find the labour to keep growing at current rates?
New Economy answers range from wishful thinking ( huge productivity increases are about to materialise any day now ) to sheer nonsense ( unmeasured productivity gains allow faster measured growth ) . This latter point is nonsense because productivity and growth are essentially the same number; if productivity is under-reported, that doesn't mean we can grow faster, it means that we already are growing faster.
The Fed knows that the US economy is running dangerously hot and fears, with reason, that the longer it waits to cool it the greater the damage. However, any rate rise when the headline inflation rate remains so low will provoke outraged protests. The protesters will include not only the usual suspects on the left, but much of the business and financial community, who have become enthusiastic proponents of the New Economy doctrine.
I once heard a Fed official give a talk about the New Economy, which on close listening suggested that he regarded the doctrine as nonsense, but was so wrapped in indirection and euphemism as to be nearly unintelligible. When I talked to him later, he apologised, but explained: "I have to deal with these people every day; I can't say flat out that they're making fools of themselves."
And there is the Fed's problem: it must, indeed, deal with those people every day. To act on what it understands but what they do not, to raise rates when they can see no reason for concern, would be in effect to say that they are fools who do not understand economics. And they would never forgive the Fed and its officials for the insult.
So here is my prediction: the Fed will not act, at least not in any serious way, until the evidence against the New Economy is too strong to be denied - until, in short, the headline inflation numbers are flashing red. And by then, of course, it will be too late.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:14 - ID#335379)
Gold up $5 in 24hours?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:15 - ID#335379)
Anyone going to K,B and G tonight ?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:23 - ID#287186)
Sharefin - when the US bubble doth blow whither its liquidity go?
To GOLD and other PMs? or to other countries - Europe by chance?
This likens to a ship sinking - the survivors fleeing to neighboring ships, weighing them down and possibly sinking them too. Eventually they sink the last ship {unless it is quite huge} - or, if they are fortunate they find solid land, i.e. GOLD in this case.

I notice myself using analogies a lot in order to assist my understanding {ever since the Kiersey personality screen asked that question}.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:27 - ID#284255)
Azau - this one worth a repost - blown out margins???
Is the World Headed Toward a 1930s Style Depression?
Is the World Headed Toward a 1930s Style Depression?

Would Americans Follow Bill Clinton If He Issued FDR's "War Powers" to Revive a Depressed Economy?

By: Mary Mostert, Analyst, Conservative Net

On the first day of trading in 1998 the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.72 per cent at 7,965.04. The economic indicators looked great and the financial commentators were talking about the market hitting 8000 in a matter of days, then 9000, and, perhaps by the end of the summer, the magic of 10,000.

A couple of days later, Alan Greenspan spoke at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. ( AEA ) and spent 15 minutes talking about the "danger of deflation."

Deflation? Like the deflation of the 1930's Depression when bacon was 10 cents a pound and candy bars at 2-3 times larger than today's candy bars sold for 5 cents?

Deflation has not occurred in the United States on a broad scale since the Great Depression of the 1930s and Greenspan declined to say whether there was an imminent risk of a deflationary cycle, but said it could be at least as bad for the economy as inflation.

"Both rapid or variable inflation and deflation can lead to a state of fear and uncertainty that is associated with significant increases in risk premiums and corresponding shortfalls in economic activity," he said.

Economists listening to Greenspan's speech were struck by the attention on deflation after decades in which the Fed has made the fight against rising prices its overriding mission, Reuters Wire Service reported. Greenspan's comments were taken as an indicator about his views on raising the interest rates. However, inflation was running at 2.1 percent, the lowest level in a generation, and did not seem to be a problem requiring higher rates.

Reading Thursday reports from the Singapore, Hong Kong and Toyko papers on their worsening economic situation is a sobering reminder of the worldwide economic depression which in the 1920s which eventually hit America's shores. Then President Herbert Hoover noted in his 1930 State of the Union Address, "During the past 12 months ( since the October 1929 crash ) we have suffered with other Nations from economic depression."

In tracing the origins of the depression, Pres. Hoover said that "to some extent" it could be traced to a "speculative period which diverted capital and energy into speculation rather than constructive enterprise. Had over-speculation in securities ( stocks ) been the only force in operation, we should have seen recovery many months ago, as these particular dislocations have generally readjusted themselves."

"Other deep-seated causes" Hoover told the Congress were chiefly "the world-wide over production beyond even the demand of prosperous times for such important basic commodities as wheat, rubber, coffee, sugar, copper, silver, zinc, to some extent cotton and other raw materials. The cumulative effects of demoralizing price falls of these important commodities in the process of adjustment of production to world consumption have produced financial crises in many countries and have diminished the buying power of these countries for imported goods to a degree which extended the difficulties farther afield by creating unemployment in all the industrial nations. The political agitation in Asia; revolutions in South America and political unrest in some European States; the methods of sale by Russia of her increasing agricultural exports to European markets; and our own drought - have all contributed to prolong and deepen the depression."

Wednesday's worldwide financial news prompted me to re-read that quote, which I used in an article for the Michael Reagan MONTHLY MONITOR issue on the economy and the 1930s depress for March, of this year. A year after the 1929 Crash, Herbert Hoover still believed in the Fundamental Soundness of the Economy, but recognized that a dramatic new era was opening up. Those changes, he realized, were dramatically altering the economy.

The 1920s, like the late 1990s, were an era of rabid anti-trust suits to control the new industries, such as the Radio Corporation of America, and bring to heel old industries, like the anthracite coal companies. Hoover said, in a 1930 speech before the Gridiron Club, "It is scarcely five years since the anthracite coal industry was, in the view of many people, so infected with the sin of monopoly that it demanded instant Federal action. In the meantime the scientists have found so many substitutes for anthracite that the industry is now struggling for existence.

"Today, it is possible to burn anthracite in one's grate without any feeling of participation in wickedness. Today the primary evil is electrical power. We must all agree that especially the electrical current developed from water has become mortally sinful. That sort of electricity is supposed to come like manna from heaven and consequently can be produced and distributed free."

Today, worldwide, we have speculators and over-production of manufactured and agricultural goods and, in America, a new policy in Washington to haul the industries that are largely fueling the economic boom into court for their success which have caused them to become world industrial leaders.

We now have plummeting stock markets in Europe, Asia, South America and, in the last couple of days, the United States. On August 7, 1997, the Hong Kong Index shot up to a high of 16,673 points. On Thursday, May 28, 1998, the South China Morning Post reports today, that Hong Kong Index dropped 498.78, a 5% drop in a market that closed at 8,983.43. Since late March, the market has lost almost a quarter of its value. Strategists have warned in the past few days that they see few reasons for a recovery in share prices.

The London Telegraph today reports an 80% rise in interest rates in Russia, coupled with a 40% drop in its stock market THIS MONTH. This is not encouraging news. Interest rates in Russia have now reached 150%. CNN reported that, of 55 stock markets in Asia, Africa, Europe, North America and South America, around the world, all except for Buenos Aires and Mexico City, fell yesterday. ( see )

The Korea Times reports a massive labor union strike by the Korea Confederation of Trade Unions would "put the already-beleaguered national economy into extreme chaos."

And what is apt to be the reaction of the American people to a looming world economic problem? First, will the average American even hear about it? They seem to have stopped reading newspapers or even watch TV News. This non-reading, non listening trend which has become quite obvious since January when the Lewinsky-Clinton sex scandal broke could save America.

Increasingly people say that they won't listen to the news because they "know we are not being told the truth" or because "I just don't want to hear it."

This phenomenon makes the American people very hard to lead as we limp towards the 21st century. I personally doubt that today's Americans would react with the sheep-like behavior of the 1930s. Hysterical reactions to economic problems in Germany and Italy led to the people in those nations to choose dictators to lead them. Economic problems in the United States led to the people, in a panic, to support FDR policies and actions that were blatantly unconstitutional. While many of his plans were blocked by the Supreme Court, it accelerated an era of increasing government control over the lives of a once free people.

How long, do you suppose, if America DID slide into depression, would it take Bill Clinton to resurrect the March 9, 1933 FDR instigated Senate Report 93-549 which invoked presidential "war powers" by declaring a national emergency? Under those powers the president could: seize property; organize and control the means of production; seize commodities; assign military forces abroad; institute martial law; seize and control all transportation and communication; regulate the operation of private enterprise; restrict travel?

Does anyone recall President Roosevelt's Proclamation 2039 which began, "Whereas three have been heavy and unwarranted withdrawals of gold and currency from our banking institutions for the purpose of hoarding...."

The purposes of hoarding? The gold belonged to individuals. They were withdrawing the gold because they didn't' trust the banks. The proclamation provided that anyone violating the presidential order by withdrawing their own money from the bank "would be fined not more than $10,000 and jailed for not more than 10 years." In 1932 a $10,000 fine was equivalent to at least $100,000 in today's money. Ten years in jail is a greater sentence than given today in many cases for murder.

And for what reason? For withdrawing their own money from the bank. Somehow I can't imagine most of the young people I know meekly standing still while Bill Clinton, ruled the nation with executive orders and orders to Congress as Franklin Delano Roosevelt did.

For one thing - Roosevelt didn't have Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:30 - ID#57232)
The Q-Bomb -- G'NIte all!
John Disney: Did you ever see one of the sequels of the movie: "The mouse that Roared?" I think the country was the infinitesimal Grand Duchey of Fenwick, the Queen or Duchess was Margaret Rutherford, and Terry Thomas of the missing tooth fame was one of the leading chracters. Can't remember the others. Well, the Grand Duchey of Fenwick declared war on the United States, and then immediately surrendered, so that they could get reparations payments. The only problem was that the infinitely dangerous 'Q-bomb' as I recall had disappeared, and could not be disarmed. The 'Q-bomb' looked remarkably like a football, and handled like one too. I do remember one scene with the 'Q-bomb' flying through the air, passing over much of the Grand Duchey of Fenwick. Fortunately it was a dud -- but the movie wasn't. So -- aurator must get in line if he wishes to repeat the Grand Duchey of Fenwick scheme with the old nonnuclear, non explosive world annihilation threat scheme. Perhaps the world needs a non-scare like this to get everyone working on the same side. I would recommend that the new threat to world peace not be shaped like a football, as there might be members of the US government who might get suspecious if they had seen a certain hilarious British movie.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:31 - ID#310222)
RE: Rising Sun you know NS is Nazism
the word NAZI is a german abbreviation of " Nationalist " ( Nati - spoken as Nazi ) , so, any Nationalist, no matter where, is a Nazi

Gold - dawai, dawai- gemma - gemma, allez - allez, c'mon !!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:31 - ID#45173)
sharefin & Gollum: why gold will go up during this deflation
Had dinner tonight with an old biz associate. He's about 60. He's not in the computer biz as I am, but an executive consultant to Fortune 100 companies. A sharp guy. I have a lot of respect for him. After we got done with out business at hand, we got on the subject of the stock market, Japan, gold, etc. My favorite topics. He had an interesting perspective. He said, traditionally, gold is the #1 hedge against inflation. This was true, for example, in the 1970s. He said that gold will rise during this deflation, unlike others. Why?

The answer, he said, is that this correction will be the first major crash in history to occur in a tightly-coupled, debt-ridden, fiat-money-based world economy. This correction will occur so rapidly and chaotically that from one week to the next no one will be able to assess the value of anything. To extend Gollum's analogy of the US economy as a airplane, not only will the plane stall and the nose head down, it will do so in complete darkness. Even the pilots will not know up from down. They won't know whether to push or pull the interest rate or money supply levers. We inside the plane will experience extreme disorientation. In such a world, what has value? He suggested that people will believe only in gold and silver as having value. Of course this is bad for those of us living though it ( unemployment, hunger ) . The bad news for holders of gold is that the US government will feel a need to take gold away from citizens to re-establish the dollar. So he's buying silver not gold.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:33 - ID#413109)
Please email me so I won't bore everyone to tears repeating-
There may be some jokes in it for ya, just ask around.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:39 - ID#45173)
Japan now 2.4% away from <15,000, generally viewed as the meltdown point
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:39AM 15361.39 -193.06 -1.24%

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:40 - ID#247273)
Sounds very possible. The speed of communications is what will contribute to the chaos. the very "advantage" of our technology that has provided speed will work the other way also. Humans are still the end point decision makers, which require time, over and beyond our cybernetic assistants.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:43 - ID#413109)
@John Disney
I see you're an early riser too.
Your explanation is well reasoned and I believe
in prudent investing also, however the overall picture
to me and the patterns the various stocks are making,
make me feel, with the help of other TA which I use,
some weird, that we're basing on volume, and are ready for
the next move up.
DD as you call it, has made a very nice large up triangular
patters, which I interpret as bullish. Volume has been quite
substantial at these lower levels for some period, and in the
long run I find these prices very good value.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:51 - ID#45173)
Nicodemus: Gold down $5.25
Wednesday Jun 03, 1998 12:41 AM EST Index------------ Last------- Change
Spot Gold--------- 288.75---- -5.25

(Wed Jun 03 1998 00:51 - ID#247273)
John Disney
Sir, what is your take on AngloGold? What is their forward sales and at what price? Thanks

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:00 - ID#253228)
To organize charts I post, I set up a little web page.

I will add revisions to the page plus leave the old projections as a means of showing either how good or bad my computational method is. For those interested just check to page once in a while and I will periodically add revisions/and or updates.

I spent a few hours today fine tuning my Homestake daily and weekly charts a little. I tend to get nervous about my trades and as a means to release some of that energy, I double check my calculations.

If you compare each new chart to the old charts you can see the way the projection is always slightly changing, but hopefully I a good enough at this by now at this for the changes to be relatively small.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:01 - ID#27341)
EJ 00:31 great post, those words lurk in my head also.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:24 - ID#187109)
......AZAU.........trader ed........JD......fancy pants......
AZAU - A BUTTLOAD is my crass-yankee-dude way of saying a boatload......or ALOT.......or HUGE amounts..........ya know. The Hep-Rat-Cat liked the term and I use it from time to time when I like to remember his sophisticated way of shuckin' & Jivin'..........uuuuhhhhh........posting.

ed - I peeled 'em off today........and I will reverse tomorrow......uh huh. Thanks for the heads up ;- ) . What do you think of this sugar thingy? I like it in Ocotber.........ALOT.

JD - I like it. That if you don't want to buy it you should sell it....because you don't like to hold. Those are wiser words than most can ole Virginian you.......what has your 'genes' been saying of silver?? Please tell.

Monex-Wedgie-Watcher - The predators are in.......get with it! Let me know what to grind...........I am having some special blue blocker tint flown in special like......nothin but the best for me mates.........Jack N says it's the will have 'em crawlin' all over ya'........ohmy!

away......back to the couch


go plat...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:24 - ID#284255)
I think that AG and RR are well aware of what is coming.
They are planning out the moves.
I guess they will do what ever they think is neccesary at the time.
Whether or not they can contain and control it is another question.

Your comment; "I sincerely hope so."
Intriges me.
If *THEY* had not let this financial and political bubble
Grow so big in the first place.
We would not be approaching these troubled times.

The US has created a bubble, so great as to threaten the finacial world.
I sincerely wish they had not done it.

Prudence would have paid off well for what they are about to unleash.
And I doubt it is far off at all.

I think gold up will move after the event.
But down before the event

Much of the liquidity will evaporate.
All those 0000000's will disappear.
Remember all the wealthy Asians.
Now they are fewer and poorer.

And when the mighty US fails and catches the contagion
And the US$$$ start to plumet
Then we will see a new belief in PM's

Your friend has good vision.
I see the same to occur.

This fiat paper pyramid
Will self implode.

They will curse the day of invention of derivatives
Never before have we seen what is about to happen.

The financial world's interconectivity
Is as important as the global computer's interconectivity

A global liquidity squeeze ---
The likes of which has never been seen before.
Is just around the corner.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:30 - ID#284255)
Re the current gold price???

GCQ8 = $295.7

Well bid and climbing nicely.

Up $2.50 in the last 4 hours

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:31 - ID#27499)
Thanks Jeil!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 01:47 - ID#316232)
What will the Fed do?
SHAREFIN AND OTHERS...In the past several years, under AG, the Fed has never raised rates unless gold was going up, and has never lowered rates unless gold was going down. By up or down I mean an established trend of over 1 month. AG follows the price of gold as one of his main indicators. Obviously in the past year he has had no need to raise rates.

In addition, no matter what is happening stateside, if US treasuries are being used as an international safe refuge by other peoples and therefore the long term bond rate is dropping ( now down to 5.78% ) , the Fed ain't goin to raise rates. Any raise in rates would push the fed funds rate up ( now 5.5% ) and indirectly push up the long term rate to maybe 6%. Since this would not be market driven, it would cause more international money to flow into the dollar. The dollar would jump up, and gold would make another step down.

Conversely, as other economies implode ( Russia, Brazil? ) , and the flight to the dollar continues, the long term rate will go down further, and the Fed will have to LOWER the fed funds rate. If they don't, the dollar will exceed all planned limits to the upside.

Contrary to Krugman's logic, which I respect, I think the next move will be a DECREASE, to take some steam out of the dollar. That will produce a gold rally.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:03 - ID#242303)
Gold up $2.70
Things are bad enough without saying POG down $5 when it aint!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:09 - ID#27341)
i agree, down is the next move, when when when ?????

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:11 - ID#27341)
sorry ,thats larryn

John Disney__A
(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:17 - ID#24135)
Genetics and Anglogold
For EB
I havent gotten a comprehensive story on silver
from my genetic advisor. I think he likes it best of
all the PMs at present .. but pLats best of all longer
term ( after it has cleared some low numbers short term )

for Azau
Ill be getting a huge report on anglogold in maybe
a week. They are actually far and away the best and
most important gold mining operation in the world.
They are outstanding. I know they hedge .. but I
dont think that far forward. There will be huge
synergies from their consolidation. They produce as
much gold as the USA. I love them. They are not so
geared as ddeeps and Harmony however and wont respond
as fast in a gold runup.

For Reify
To each his own.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:20 - ID#298259)
EJ & Nicodemus
Spot gold was up $2.80 yesterday to $291...and in the futures markets Aug gold is currently up another $2.80.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:24 - ID#257148)
to the poster formerly know as sqr root of 49729

as in your house, so in ours. I wonder how many other kitcolics also find themselves in this situation, as gagnrad ( 223 was easier to spell, yes? ) said
"In our usual arrangement ( I buy investments, she buys things ) "

of course, the difficulty dies arise, if her things, like Beanie Babies, are worth more than his "investments" like gold paper.

It's not easy being a goldbug.




A very scary story Tue Jun 02 1998 05:01. I often used to think that US paranoia over the UN was mostly because Merka didn't want to cough up the millions "owed" to the UN. Since tuning in to kitco I now understand the insidious tenctacular nature of the erstwhile benign organisation.


"NZ should set off a non nuclear Non explosive device somewhere in Pacific."

It should come as no suprise that *I* am that device. I smoulder rather than explode. NZ could not afford anything else but me. The idea, as you correctly surmise, is to turn NZ into an enemy of Merka, thereby ensuring: aid dollars; latest weaponry; best intelligence ( surely an oxymoron ) and many visits by the smiling faced 20th century equivalents of the London Missionary Society, I mean of course Peace Corps. ( Well we woulda if we coulda. Ain't the peace corps, um, dead? )


(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:51 - ID#257148)
Free? you want a Free market?
You are absolutely correct. NZ has abolished almost all import taxes, very few are still around. Most recently the gobmnit has said that parallel importing in the grey market is OK.

Two steps backwards: Previously, a NZ person would hold an import licence and probably an exclusive franchise to import a product, say Apple Computers. It was then prohibited to privately import a Macintosh. The private import market was known as the "grey" market, it existed, but really for individual purchases only. It was, of course, cheaper to get a Mac from the grey market, if you could find one, becsuse you not only avoided customs duty, but also the importer's margins. The importers of Macs ( and many other industries ) have put up a long fight to prevent parallel importing and protect their franchise. Recently, with the import tarrifs eliminated, the only thing preventing parallel importing was the Franchise holder's assertion that he alone held the right to import. This has now been held to be anti-competitive. We live in a FREE MARKET. "User - pays" shall be the whole of the law. The Commerce Commission cited the ubiquity of the Internet as being the final nail in the coffin to prevent a global, duty-free market. NZ must be one of the free-est markets on earth, whoop de doo. That may be why we're in such doo doo.

Our indigenous industrial base is being decimated. We lost our rag-trade in the 80's as we could compete with chinese t-shirts, we recently lost our car-assembly plants for the same reason. Of course, this has all hapenned before. Cotton in England could not compete with Indian cotton, whole towns were left wastelands. Unemployment is an inevetiable result, and that means benefit day.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:53 - ID#273227)
mid/late July is fine. Give me 5 days and I'll get us on Karsten ( ASU ) .

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:53 - ID#257148)
apologise for the mixed metaphors, I really need an editor, or more time online.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 02:58 - ID#153102)
@Update 6-2-98 8:00p.m. Montana
Criminal Complaint by Affidavit, Russell Dean,

Served by Justice Petersen

I, Russell Dean, Jus soli, Man of Birthright, a servant of Heavenly Father, Yhvh by and through my one and only Redeemer, Yahshua, the Living Christ to present this Affidavit, a criminal complaint as to my being brutally assaulted the past two days by INTERPOL agents wearing corporate insignia of US MARSHALL/POLICE and YELLOW STONE COUNTY DETENTION FACILITY. They came to our dungeon, when we are continuing to be held hostage after over seven hundred ( 700 ) days, at or about 6
A.M. and asked if we wanted to go to the satanic foreign fraudulent
so-called court and we gave no response; then at or about 7 A.M. Rod
Ostermiller and others with a camera came by and again we said nothing.
Finally at about 7:30 whole goon squad came by and despite their question
as to whether we wanted to participate , and our non-assumpsit, no consent, brutally and without regard for our safety or will, did drag us in our undershorts into the dorm and slammed us over on our belly, someone stepped on my head and they put handcuffs on my arms behind my back and shackles on my ankles, and then they jerked us to our feet and dragged us down the hall to a room where the cold was unbearable.

Today I had the additional problem of a hood placed over my head as a
punishment for having spit in the face of one of my assailants on Tuesday.

The Billings Gazette had bold-faced lies from Dennis McCave as he said
these brutal attacks are not happening. Wednesday, I witness marshals
assaulting LeRoy Michael and that his wrist and finger are all sprained,
and his arms are legs are all bruised. His nose is wounded and bruised. His blood was all over his window and sink in our window in the dungeon when I got back.

On Tuesday Rodney Owen was brutalized in my presence as he was jabbed with a handcuff keys and hands were twisted over handcuffs until he screamed and defecated in his pants.

Ralph Emmett a 68 year old man was dragged by his arms down the hall and
his back severely injured ( Tuesday ) . Then today he was hauled down on a
gurney and had to sit with his knees on the chair and his elbows on the
chair back. Later the hard jail mattresses were arranged on the floor for
him to remain sitting doggie style on the cold floor all day. He hobbles
with weakness and could hardly talk tonight. I pray we have no martyrs
here. We are close.

Dale Martin has been severely injured and it is a a certainty his hip will never be the same. He suffers as all supra, but then slammed from his bunk on the concrete floor.

So say I, so say we all this is true, correct, and certain, my yeas are yea and my nays are nay this twenty seventy day if the fifth month nineteen hundred ninety-eight, anno domini.

L.S. Russell Dean
Garfield county, Montana state.
- -

The computer is again off line, pieces of news are coming out slowly. The
phone call this morning from the jail is confirmed and local TV is now
saying Russell Landers is hospitalized due to dehydration. The CBS
affiliates are reporting that Judge Coughenour ( pronounced 'koon-hour' ) had removed the jury today after a defense lawyer was giving the impression that the instruments used to purchase various items by Freemen were legitimate. The Judge went on to say that if the lawyer kept this up the Judge would tell the jury the instrument was "junk". The TV also reported that some of the Freemen were on a "fast". The proper phrase
would be 'food and water hunger strike'.

This just in 8:30 pm local time:John Patrick was arrested this afternoon
for 'calling out the militia'. He has made two calls to the Freedom Center for help.

CBS television news woman Julie Kerber of KTVQ received word from some of
the defense attorneys that all of the incarcerated Freemen will be moved to some hospital, possibly tonight. This word came to the Center in the last few minutes.

This morning Kamala, Susan confirmed that the YCDF is still closed to the

The only voice We had from the lawyer's side was John Patrick. He is now in jail.

This is a true and accurate transciption of information received Tuesday
night June 2, 1998 A.D.

William David, Junior., Sullivan near Billings, Montana

Our life, liberty and property are in this battle being waged in Billings, Montana. Please pray for the victory over the forces of evil in our country and for the safety of the Montana freemen.
Call the following numbers several times a day during regular business
hours to let them know that we care and our numbers are growing. It will
only cost a couple of dollars a day.
Sheriff Chuck Maxwell - 406-256-2929
Governor Raciocot - 406-444-3111
Judge Coughenour ( koon-hour ) - 406-256-2851
Dennis McCave ( jail ) 406-256-6881

The evils of tyranny are rarely seen but by him who resists it.
John Hay: Castilian Days, II, 1872

(Wed Jun 03 1998 03:27 - ID#257148)
Darn it Mo. it's so hard to understand. I mean, when Waco was breaking on TZ, we only saw the FDA's side downunder. Then I read some interesting stuff in a book about Millenium fever that cast a different light on Waco and Ruby Ridge. I understood these both as freedom fighting. Then I got online.

These Montana Freemen? what do you all say and think about them? Are they Freemen? are they looking to devolve from the Merkan gobmint? Are we talking a return to tribalism? Or just a return to honest gobmint, of the people, by ( buy ) the people? I have read about Texas, I believe that Texas has the right at any time to secede from Federal Control. ( Does that make me a Felon in Merka? ) I do not know much about the Montana Freemen. However, if Texas did secede, it would bode badly for Merka, as the secession of Quebec would be for Canada, and Scotland for the UK. Fragmentation.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 03:48 - ID#153102)
These are peaceable men who never harmed a soul. Like I said before, this is all about bondage. These men refuse the legal condition of slavery. They do not assent to the frauds being perpetrated under color of law. It's their birthright to be Freemen and they stand on it.

There are a handful of people who comprehend the issues and the stakes, but more every day. Media coverage is not much use for understanding anything, really. Probably not even football games.

Texas is a different matter altogether because it was a country before it was a state. Do you think NZ should not be a fragment, but assimilated by Australia ?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 04:07 - ID#257148)
freedom, sing a song of Freeeeeedommmmm
These freemen have my best wishes and fervent desire for their own liberation. As to NZ's federation with Stralia? We have economic co-operation. We have shed our blood together in battlefields for most of this century against common foes, Noone shall deprive NZ ( Aotearoa ) of her sovereignty. Federation over my dead portfolio.
Exactly, Texas was independent before "con"- feration. My head hurts when I try to draw lines around issues of freedom. Holding gold is my political anarchical statement of my birthright to freedom.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 04:17 - ID#257148)
the hurrieder I go, the behinder I get
Tue Jun 02 1998 13:54 LGB ( @ Gianni Dioro.....Planetary "Linement" )
THAT's a post.

sign me: grateful

(Wed Jun 03 1998 04:44 - ID#401460)

June 03, 1998
04:35AM New York Time

Change from New York close
Thanks Bart,


(Wed Jun 03 1998 05:31 - ID#411331)
@ ALL: So the POG is recovering, the DOW is sliding, and the US$ likewise, BUT
the last time I looked, gold lease rates were still 1.2%. The gold carry trade is still on, still profitable. UNLESS GOLD LEASE RATES RISE OR
INTEREST RATES IN THE US FALL, I PREDICT THE PRESENT RALLY WILL PLATEAU AT $295-$300 AGAIN. IMHO It is cheap lease ( selling ) rates which have
governed the markets over the past ten year bear. This game is still on.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jun 03 1998 05:49 - ID#24135)
Hadnt thought of that
Salty ..
I was thinking more along the lines
of a giant alarm clock or a huge vacuum
cleaner ...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 05:53 - ID#43349)
I too find silver rather more attractive than gold at
the moment.

In a complete stall there is no guarantee the plane
will fall off nose down.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:03 - ID#411331)
what the low lease rates do to the price of gold. If they know that
low lease rates drive the spot price of gold ever lower then


What possible benefit could this have, unless they themselves are
accumulating more?


The Central Banks don't care how low the spot price of gold sinks
because they have no intention of selling ( officially ) any more of
their gold reserves?


The Central Banks want to lower the POG because they want to end
the status of gold as a monetary asset and go with paper reserves?
After all, most CBs have more paper in their reserves, than gold.
So if the value of gold declines, it would be offset by a rise in
the value of their paper reserves?

It is this last possibility that concerns me the most. If it's true,
the world has been booked on a one way passage on a financial TITANIC,
and the Central Banks have been busy for the last ten years chopping
holes in all the lifeboats. Who do you think is the captain of this
ship of fools?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:06 - ID#26793)
North Korea may have at least one nuclear bomb.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Europe and the U.S. making the case for a Russian bailout.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:15 - ID#26793)
Oil price deflation putting Mexico in peril.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:24 - ID#26793)
Base metals; demand and prices plunge, inventories soar.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:32 - ID#26793)
Y/Y declines; Crude 35%, Copper 36%, Alumin. 23%, Wheat 24%, Coffee 47% and much more

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Bema, Arizona, Placer news.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:44 - ID#26793)
Swiss will cap gold sales at 500 tonnes if voters approve; down from 1300.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 06:47 - ID#26793)
Worldwide glut of computer chips causes production cuts.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:07 - ID#26793)
Don't believe the Chinese; they will devalue and send yen to 180 vs the dollar.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:10 - ID#57232)
Whither markets?
sharefin: Re -- the 'I sincerely hope so'. Sorry you misunderstood me. I was not referring to AG and RR. I was referring to the fact the I sincerely hope that when the US does finally implode, it will be after much of the rest of the world has stabilized economically, and is starting to recover. I shudder to think what the world economy would be like if all of the major world's economic systems hit bottom together. I would guess that that situation would not be much better than a near miss by an asteroid.

I am exaggerating a bit, but I hope you get my point. I was pretty pooped last night, I apologize for the confusion.

I regretfully must say that I think that EJ's great post from last night is probably closest to the mark -- the economy being the airplane, and AG, RR the pilots. When we have our final market confrontation, the instruments will not respond, so AG and RR will be flying blind -- just as if the wind and the air disappeared - only to be replaced by empty space. When the system fails -- eventually -- they won't have a clue what to do.

With regard to serial devaluations, if it is taken to its logical extent, even silver equities may not be a safe investment, until some time 'after'.

Bully Beef
(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:25 - ID#259261)
I guess deflation would mean the cash in your bank account is more powerful.
Also your mortgage is going to hurt you. Hurt me been in gold. I'm starting to like it.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:26 - ID#43185)
If nothing else happens to devalue the dollar first, then it will
neccesarily drop after the various foreign economies start to
recover. Flight capital will want to back home. The problem with
dollar discreditation coming that way is that it will take some time
for those guys to start to get back on their feet and I impatiently
want everything to happen now,now,now :- )

As to the Federal Reserve airplane, once you go into a complete stall
you have no workable controls and can fall off tail first as easily
as nose first.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:27 - ID#57232)
Morning, Donald!
Looks like we won't have that SEAsian goods Tsunami after all! And -- the

Japanese economy is 'recovering'? US interest rates will probably go down - not up - for a time as the commodity price drops make their mark on the US markets. Our interest rates will go up when the dollar is finally put under pressure. This may be the time for our last market blowoff -- either as Jeil predicts after a correction -- or right now.

sharefin -- I do not think the US is to blame for the worldwide bubble we are in -- any more than it was in 1929. The US, regardless of what you think, is almos certainly where the market bubble will end. It is possible that the hand of US leaders was in the Australian gold sales, or they may have done what so many countries over the world did -- simply because gold was 'cheap'. I am now beginning to think that the Swiss might actually sell some of their gold -- for the very same reason that they devalued their currency in the 60's and 70's. They don't want to be the 'odd man' out. But -- they will not do it right away.

One question remains. Do gold and silver go up before the US markets tank? Could be -- but I sure wouldn't count on it.

Interesting times. I guess D.A. is up to his eyeballs in commodity longs that went sour. Hope he got out.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:28 - ID#307271)
A. Gary Shilling of Forbes
Good ol'Gary Shilling is a Bond Baby from way back. I admire and respect his take on China, but take care on his bond advise. He was very long on bonds during the last plane crash.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:30 - ID#43185)
@Bully Beef
You put it your finger on it. Of course you want your cash
to be in dollars and not yen. It would be nice if your
mortgage was in yen or rupiah.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:34 - ID#57232)
The stall analogy
gollum: I agree -- I think EJ got that idea from you. I'm not a pilot, but I made alot of free-flight model airplanes when I was a kid. They are even harder to fly than the real ones, because you have no control. Couldn'd afford radio control. Free-flight planes must be self stabilizing. Our markets are becoming less stable every day, and the trillions of dollars traded by day on the world's markets mean that AG and RR can do little but watch if the dollar stalls/tanks.

But -- the final correction will not be until the world's economy starts to recover, and the US dollars come home to roost. That may be years from now. We must be on our toes, as the froth is getting much greater.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:45 - ID#43185)
It might be kind of interesting to watch the yuan. A lot of asian
flight captial also went into the long pole of their tent. This has
made the yuan too strong just as the dollar is too strong and has
created the same sort of problems for them as it will for us if we
don't do something fairly soon.

Another thing is that if the yuan goes down there will be a whole new
wave of foreign liquidity rushing to the dollar.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:46 - ID#57232)
A deflationary thought to ponder on
All: Q: When did the last musical 'chair' disappear in the 20's?

A: 1929.

At that time the world's currency was the pound sterling.

Q: When did the British pound collapse?

A: Around 1931-1932 as I recall.

So -- The markets came down first, in serial devaluations -- world wide. Then -- the world's currency of the time collapsed years later. Similar process this time? Perhaps.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:50 - ID#187218)
Gates is a penny-pinching bast*r*
I do not dislike wealth or the acquisition of it - HOWEVER - when you model the charitable givings of J.D. Rockefeller with that of Bill Gates one tends to despise Gates even more. JDR started giving money away ( to regular people ) when he was a clerk ( c. $6B in current dollars ) while Gates gives donations ( tax deductable ) to wire schools to further promote his MONOPOLY. Moral:,,,,, bring back the Robber Barons.

( cf: 30 May 1998 - The Economist )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:54 - ID#43185)
You will have your wish.

In fact the robber barons are here now, it's just that we
won't neccesarily know all their names until a couple of
years from now.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:56 - ID#57232)
Yes the Yuan is like the dollar -- too strong
gollum: There may well be one more commodity price surge in the US before we join everyone else. D.A. may still be right, since the SEAsia goods Tsunami is not reaching our shores. This difficult period may be due to the direct deflationary effects. Then -- the final US bubble forms in the currenct cycle of musical chairs -- with South America missing, and without the price anchor of cheap goods from abroad. In another cycle, Europe may be next. In the meantime, we may have a period of inflation during our final market bubble blowoff --either before or after the mini-bear/correction Jeil seems to be predicting.

Then -- when the US dollars come home to roost as the rest of the world recovers -- we will have our turn. Maybe y2k, maybe a bit later. Regardless, it will get more and more difficult to read the markets as we reach the final stages of our market blowoff.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:58 - ID#43185)
Base metals down and in oversupply, Oil down and in oversupply,
computer chips down and in oversupply, comodities in general down
and in oversupply. Manufacturing industries dimming the lights.
Kind of looks like something of a deflationary trend is here, eh?

Remember when the markets took it as bullish that the economy was
cooling because that meant the Fed wasn't going to raise rates?
How bullish is it for the economy to stop alltogether?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 07:59 - ID#187218)
Are you suggesting that we do not know the names of 'Today's' Baron ? This must leave out Tri-Lats and/or Bilders... any idea as to what political entities they are associated ? If the political assumption is made -then- Marx was right!!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:03 - ID#187218)
Another Oxford connection...
Strobe Talbott, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, shared a house with fellow Rhodes scholar Clinton... I wonder if he had finished at Oxford or dropped out as did BC.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:08 - ID#270253)
Gary Shilling
Be careful listening to this guy. He predicted depression/stock market collapse a few years ago and was 100% wrong. The religious right ( Pat Robertson ) have used him as a poster boy. On that subject, I was channel surfing late last year, and saw a guy on Pat Robertson's 700 Club stating that the market was definitely in crash mode. Not maybe, but absolutely. TV Evangelists should avoid politics and the stock market. Stick to fund raising and empire building.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:33 - ID#45173)
Gollum & JTF: Not to beat a dead horse or a stalled airplane
I've been in a single engine plane when the pilot intentionally put us in a stomach-raising stall. The purpose of doing this in training is to learn how to get a plane that's falling with the grace of a Kleenex to head down nose first to create forward speed so that you can regain control. Clearly this is not something you want to do when you're anywhere near the ground because it takes serious altitude to pull this off. To continue with the analogy, the Fed airplane is more like a 747; if it stalls, it will take a lot of air and a lot of thrust to get it pointed down so that control can be regained. Hopefully, we'll have enough altitude to do it.

Did you catch the Y2K discussion on CSPAN last night? They had the usual cast of characters, including reps from the SEC and the GAO. Anyone watching that show who knew nothing now knows that there will be a recession, minimally.

Still ambivalent on this gold vs. silver decision.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:41 - ID#243166)
Bema Gold
Would appreciate any comments regarding investment merits of Bema from anyone following such. Thanks.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:54 - ID#43185)
That seems like a pretty reasonable scenario. I'm not altogether sure
about the period of inflation. I think, I guess that it's somewhat
likely. If it comes, it will come either because of the Fed trying to
print it's way out of trouble or just a natural consequence of
devaluation of the dollar.

If other economies do not recover soon enough, however and our economy
goes down as well, there will only be severe deflation and world wide
depression. I do not see that happening I guess, because by then the
Fed and the printing presses would be in panic mode.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 08:59 - ID#43185)
I rather like silver because I like the simplicty of Buffets
strategy. Of course if gold comes back, silver will too, but
it sure looks like silver has what it takes to come back first.

The thing that can make Buffets plan fail or at least take a
longer time period to fruition than he might anticipate would
be if world economies slowed enough to severly curtail demand.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:11 - ID#286230)
Bre-X Pres Close to Death

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:16 - ID#212197)
Y2K: John A. Koskinen, the Administration's Point Man on the Date Problem
....said to a friend on mine in a personal discussion very recently:
"If only one percent of people pull out their money from the banks or pull out from the stock market, we'll have a major financial crisis."

The time frame in which this pull out could happen was meant as a period of one or two months, basically if only one percent of people start to enter panic mode.

If one percent of people acting in pull out mode within one month can trigger a financial crisis, my best guess is, it will happen in half a year from now latest.

This statement is worth to be analyzed in more detail. Koskinen must be talking about the M1. Can realistically a change in M1 trigger a financial crisis ? Probably the time frame is most important. Within one week the pull out from stocks can do it, I think.

Cool headed financial analysts are in demand. The question is: what percentage of people in what period of time need to pull out from either the stock market or withdraw their cash from banks in order to trigger a major financial crisis ?

Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:17 - ID#307271)
A/P Analogy and The "Religious Right".
As to airplanes: The present US economic tableau is more likened to and aircraft that is not stalled but ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE POWER CURVE.

I think we can allow most people to be 100% wrong occasionally, since hundreds have been wrong in strongly espousing a DEPRESSION scenario. ( e.g. Howard Ruff of Ruff Times back in 1979. ) Bondsters are notoriously lugubrious in this regard as a rule. But when a man's reputation is assassinated based on his Christian affiliation or for being wrong in a financial opinion, thought should be given to the times he has been right. " Twice ranked as Wall Street's top economist by polls in Institutional Investor, named the country's number one Commodity Trading Advisor by Futures Magazine in 1993, and a regular columnist for Forbes Magazine"...That Gary Shilling. Oh. OK.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:19 - ID#342315)
Prometheus- a message
Got an email from Colleen this am. Still flopped with the flu. She wanted me to pas to you this URL, It's good re quakes-US. I tried it and it works as is. Try it you'll like it. I hope you got my apology for that raunchy post last nite. I forgot my mythology and used to think from your writing you were he instead of she. So sorry. Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:19 - ID#375108)
Re: BGO---I wouldn't touch ANY Clive Johnson company with a 10-foot gaff after the way he and BGO management sold out shareholders last fall. The long and sorry tale is there for all to see on the BGO/AZS thread on Silicon Investor. Just my personal opinion of course....

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:24 - ID#255190)
We only know what they tell us. Else we'd have to think for ourselves..and you know how painful THAT is!!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:25 - ID#340459)
@Novice- BGO is under priced and has a lot of upward potential with rising POG, IMHO

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:34 - ID#286230)
If Mr. Walsh becomes the second major Bre-X figure to die---will there be a conspiracy theory explanation?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:34 - ID#374294)
ALBERICH - fractional amounts & y2k
You're last post was interesting...I've heard various estimations about the number of people ( expressed in percentages ) that it would take to cause a 'run' on the banks. These numbers have ( until today ) ranged from 5 to 10 percent. I do know that in 1991, actual cash in the money supply was about 1 trillion, and 4 trillion existed on the 'books' in checking, savings, et al. This information was reported from the US Treasury in a book that I read.

The operative question is, IMHO, of that paper much is "in" the system, and how much in "out" at any given time.

Also, some simple math shows us that if there are roughly 250 million people in the country, and 1 trillion in paper dollars available...that would mean about $4,000 for every man, woman, and child...I don't think the average family in the USA has even $10,000 in a savings account...??

Plan and act now....don't wait until 1999. Just my opinion, your mileage may vary : )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:35 - ID#20748)
Ted Arnold : In his daily commentary, from London,
said that the gold market was active and that the gold bulls were hoping to probe for a large number of sell stops in the 396 range. He said there were rumors of overnight buy backs by an Australian producer. No one was able to identify the producer. The range of buy back was rumored to be anywhere between 300,000 ozs to 2 million ozs.

He said that the silver market was 'very perky' and that traders expected silver to trade in the 5.50 area within the next few days. He said that traders expected the "big investor" holding a large amount of the physical metal to actively participate in the futures market. He said that the "big investor" was in a position to push up the price by not lending into the market any of the silver owned by him.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:41 - ID#210235)
Thanks for the URL. BBW, anyone who minds a bit of raucous behavior or raunchy joke should pick a handle like Mother Teresa, or Shirley Temple, don't you think?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:43 - ID#27341)
Do you believe lowering interest rates in the US and firing up the printing press will avoid a world depression.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:43 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:44 - ID#270253)
Apology to Zeke
Zeke, I didn't realize that Pat Robertson and his TV empire represented the Christians of the world. TV evangelists have no political/economic credibility with me. My local pastor has more knowledge on what is happening out there. I obviously hit a nerve. Enough said.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:49 - ID#36156)
God, I miss the Kitco quote frames!!!

On second thought, maybe you SHOULD charge a fee to use this site. Then you'd have the wherewithal to keep our information tools up and running.

I'm ready to sign up.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:52 - ID#307271)
Mike Stewart
Thanks for the consideration, but no apology is required. I just know we are all very imperfect and live in an imperfect world, so I wanted to cut Mr. Shilling some slack. Frankly, he should know better that to go on national TV saying something only a greenhorn would say. I'm sure he has repented muchly--a contrarian refined by the fire.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:56 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:58 - ID#252391)
Second HenryD's
Yes I would sign up, too. We'd loose alot of people -but perhaps Bart could do like the Silicon Investor does and charge those that post while the lurkers can read for free. I find the price updates and the charts most integral to Kitco. Is it a matter om money?? How much money?? Bart should let us know in multiply time posts ( post through out the day ) what the situation is....

Perhaps he could add a few things like the XAU and the dollar index.

Talk to us Bart...S

(Wed Jun 03 1998 09:58 - ID#317223)
I lost my shortcuts, please, any good site for current POG

thank you

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:10 - ID#251166)
Kitco Quote Page: It's working for me . . .
Hope it'll work for you:

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:11 - ID#43185)
hi. Must be a new moon.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:22 - ID#43185)
No I do not. I am just trying to anticipate what might happen
during the thrashing around trying to avoid the waterfall. At
this point we can't even say with any certainty that there will
be a depression although it does look like we will at least have
a pretty damn good slowdown. Each country is taking it's turn
going into recession.

How do you get out of a depression? Just inflating prices won't
do it. Just makes things worse. You have to get people back to
work and companies and people back to spending. Doesn't do any
good to just print more if no one spends it. Ya gotta have velocity
as well as reserves.

A war will do it because of defense spending and buildup of war goods
industry. A government sponsered public works program will do it
if it's massive enough. The best thing of course, is don't get
into such dire straits to begin with just like the best way to
deal with a thug in a dark alley is don't go into the alley in the
first place.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:24 - ID#27341)
my 09:43, would like your slant, if not, thats fine,

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:26 - ID#307271)
PAASF already up 1/8 this AM. Hopefully silver will have a good day and will lead gold out of a possible downer.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:26 - ID#333126)
hmm... weird
the kitco bot refused this exact same password saying there's a login/security error. hmm.

anyway... what i wanted to say ( and link to ) were the current quotes for Hungarian and Russian stock exchanges ... highly volatile ... UPwards today.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:30 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

We were talking about the gap on the XAU daily chart last night. This gap was left on the chart Monday morning with the strong downward opening.
The gap extends from 74.67 to 74.07.

This morning the XAU barely made its way into the gap with a high of 74.09 and was then thrown out with the last quote I saw at 73.61.

So here now is the first big test for this upmove ( of DCB ) . Can the XAU now regain its composure and take another shot at closing that gap. This is where my attention is focused right now.

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:30 - ID#27341)
Thanks,the world seems to think it can export its way out of trouble, to where?

the moon
(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:32 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:34 - ID#348286)
@Palladium - Back where it should be
Who was paying 400 for palladium? Now back at 250, and probably worth no more than 150..... This market is a joke... Big Time. This proves the PM market has become a traders paper game. Let them self distruct, buy physical Gold and avoid the contracts like the plague!
Physical Gold would be 700. to 1000. were it not for the PAPER BOYS.
How much longer is the question......

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:37 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 2:58
Mozel--You and I are as one on the issue of the FREEMEN. Have been watching with considerable concern. These are brave men, and I support their fight.

It is unfortunate that "THE CITIZEN" in a FREE country, are forced to fight alone. Fighting for the rights and freedoms of/for all. Sad eh!

Many citizen's talk the talk, very few citizen's walk the walk. Cowards are in the majority, silent majority, to those citizen's I hope all of hell ( If such exists ) will be inflicted upon their miserable lives. These freemen are true men of peace. The State with their silent majority, are the TRICKSTERS.

You and I have a common position, regarding the issue's being put forth by these brave men. Take Care Mozel.

FWIW, this is one of many sites, displaying the issue of these freemen.


Billings or Beijing?

by Patrick Shannon

[Editors Note: Reviewing the preview of Patrick Shannan's report on the Freemen Standoff, I thought back about all the comments from jurors that I have heard over the years. They have reported being harassed by patrolmen, removed from jury deliberation for holding to their vote, and regretful for following the judge's instructions. One entire grand jury's no-bill was set aside, and the jurors were replaced by another grand jury that would true-bill in one case in the West.]

Introduction by FIGJA

I've heard some terrible stories from jurors all over America. FIGJA has been trying to alert Americans about the judicial crises in America for some time. It is encouraging to see investigative reporters like Mr. Shannan verify our situation.

It is not just in Montana, it's all over America. We have a serious problem. It appears that the very people who want to uphold the Law of the Land are becoming more desperate and provoked by the pathetic abuse and contempt being displayed by the public servants elected to try cases in the courts.

When the Schweitzer/Petersen spotlight of exposure began to illuminate too brightly in secret corners, a government attack was imminent. It said, to all of us paying attention, "If we can't stop'em legally, we will have to use force."

To the rest of the world monitoring the nightly news, it said once again ~parroting the government scripts from Waco and Ruby Ridge ~ "These people are a hate group who want to destroy the government." Very few Americans paused to wonder: could this be merely the voice of corruption, fearing exposure? Schweitzer and Petersen have repeated a hundredm times over that they love their country, and if they hate anything it is the debauchery in the ungodly monetary system which has been foisted upon the nation by the banking cartel. The enemy's guns were too big, the judges too corrupt, and the juries too stacked with simpletons programmed to march to the beat of the judge and prosecution for an honest man to gain a victory in federal court.

Instead Schweitzer and Petersen decided to fight fire with fire. They would use the Fed's own system against them. First they sued County Attorney Murnion, the Attorney General, political figures, various judges [Federal judges work for the corporate entity called "United States." In the event that the judge did not own enough personal assets to cover the lien, the corporate entity is liable.

If the judge had been upholding his sworn oath to defend and protect the Constitution, then the corporation would not be liable, and there never could have been a viable action filed.] and the United States Government ~ all of whom had been instrumental in thwarting the judicial process in the many cases of the Freemen ~ for violation of their oaths of office. They sued in their own court at the township, which the many defendants found frivolous and so ludicrous that they did not bother to even respond. The township's court then found them to be in default ( after granting the defendants a grace period of double the allotted time ) and granted judgment to the Freemen plaintiffs ~ in the total of some 17 trillion dollars.

It was with these assets that the group later made an offer to Bill Clinton to pay off the national debt, a paltry four trillion or so. The next step was to secure the judgments with liens. When the judges and politicians found that everything they owned ~ cars, boats, homes, land, and equipment ~ no longer could be sold without first satisfying the debt, the situation was not quite so humorous anymore.

They began to complain to the press and publicly call the liens "illegal" and the Freemen "criminals." However, no one from the media asked why, if the liens were illegal, it would not be a simple matter to have them legally removed. The only ones so far that have been removed were done so unlawfully. The Freemen say that sheriff's deputies have gone into some of the County Clerk's offices and ripped the pages from the record. Short of paying off the liens, this tyrannical fashion appears to be the only means available for getting them removed. The liens appear to be very lawful, indeed.

BILLINGS.....OR BEIJING? By J. Patrick Shannan Copyright 1996
( downloaded from Alaska )

Standing Army, Controlled News, and Suppressed Court Documents in Montana are the U.S. Government's Latest Chapter of Tyranny

A Preview Distributed By The Fully Informed Grand Jurors Alliance

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:37 - ID#255217)
the moon
Hi, there.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:43 - ID#342315)
ABSOLUTELY! Colleen is a great one, we have a lot of fun ( literary ) . I'm calmed down a lot from 30 years ago when I met my wife. I'll keep it under control. Many thanx, Charlie
PS, been having trouble with posting

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:45 - ID#43185)
I'm not sure the world thinks it can export it's way out of trouble.
Countries whose currency has gone down suddenly have a higher demand
for their products which are now much cheaper than the equivalent
domestic product. At the same time they are desperately try to raise
cash any way they can. So trade imbalances occur.

On the other hand, if they fail to raise enough cash, by whatever
means possible to meet obligations then the banking system ( and
the companies ) goes bankrupt. That sure cuts down on the exports.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:50 - ID#317223)
Thanks,it worked for me too,.......and

Hi to the full moon

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:53 - ID#187109)
I will come to your rescue with these URL's.......will you come eat some aphids on my roses?? watch the world unfold from my 'puta


(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:53 - ID#36156)
jonesy (Kitco Quote Page: It's working for me . . .)
Thanks, Jonesy. That page works fine, but that's not the problem I was refering to. When you use Kitco's Frame Version, you get the quotes on the top and left margins of the page. These are the ones that have been acting up forever and haven't worked at all for the last two days.

I'm sure that Bart's at wits-end with these continual problems ... and of course, so are we. So, if charging us a nominal membership fee will help finance more reliability and flexibility of sources, I'm all for it.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:53 - ID#342315)
Wetgold re Barons
I see you have the same high opinion of gates as I do. In the days when Rockefeller gave out dimes, a dime was a dime and it was silver. I don't think bill will have the lasting power John D had. Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:55 - ID#252391)
Notice HGMCY ( Harmony ) is up 3/8 today on relativley big volumn. Actually looks like it was two trades. One of 20K and another of 40K. If we can close up that'll do great things for the OBV. ( ANybody else notice that HGMCY and DROOY are non marginable? Any body have the reason. )

Preacher -I've got my eyes where you do on the XAU but so far the furutes aren't giving much encouragement. Sept. PD is up and SWC is holding unchanged at 24 1/4 but with oil in the tank ( down 25 cents ) the whole deflationary senorio gets a retuning. I would have to think that investors would want to be long going into this weekend with the ERUO likely to make some announcement that you'd think would have some bullish connotations unless they leave gold out of the picture and or let the banks sell at will.

The market is telling us that either nobody cares, the EURO announcement will not be postive, or the participants are so enthrawlled with the deflation story that gold is dead.

XAU lst quote unchanged.

Great rally. Fits the picture though - this is a bear - rallies are being sold pretty earnestly.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:55 - ID#252391)
Notice HGMCY ( Harmony ) is up 3/8 today on relativley big volumn. Actually looks like it was two trades. One of 20K and another of 40K. If we can close up that'll do great things for the OBV. ( ANybody else notice that HGMCY and DROOY are non marginable? Any body have the reason. )

Preacher -I've got my eyes where you do on the XAU but so far the furutes aren't giving much encouragement. Sept. PD is up and SWC is holding unchanged at 24 1/4 but with oil in the tank ( down 25 cents ) the whole deflationary senorio gets a retuning. I would have to think that investors would want to be long going into this weekend with the ERUO likely to make some announcement that you'd think would have some bullish connotations unless they leave gold out of the picture and or let the banks sell at will.

The market is telling us that either nobody cares, the EURO announcement will not be postive, or the participants are so enthrawlled with the deflation story that gold is dead.

XAU lst quote unchanged.

Great rally. Fits the picture though - this is a bear - rallies are being sold pretty earnestly.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 10:58 - ID#27341)
i set this puzzle on my table,and looked at it every witch-way,cannot see any soft landing for the world.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:04 - ID#373284)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:06 - ID#57232)
Serial devaluations and EURO/gold question
All: I am not sure we will be 'rescued' by some fantastic pro-gold announcement by the European CB's. Deflation and Russia is on everyone's minds right now. I doubt that there are many countries that want to see their currency skyrocket due to some pro-gold statements. Just yesterday there were rumors of a German devaluation if the Russian situation worsens.

My guess is that any real movements toward gold will wait for the time that concerns about personal security return.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:07 - ID#342315)
EJ re flight analogy
When I was in the AF, we did some hellacious maneuvers. Pulled several G's. Funny thing- when another person was on board, the pilot never blacked out, but the passenger did- even instructors. When the pilot does it, his neuro system is his, the passengers is just enough behind pilot to miss seting constriction pressure to retain blood flow. A little refinement to your analogy is this time difference in blackout is mille seconds. I wonder how long the follow up to a stall attempt would be for the economy. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:13 - ID#390259)
deflation good for gold
I have read James Dines book the invisible crash and ask all to read it. I have not understood all of it but remember that "deflation is good for Gold, Inflation is not" was his statement. So we have had inflation and Gold went south, now deflation may come to realign us with reality
All the best to you!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:14 - ID#335190)
NY precious metals mostly weaker

NEW YORK, June 3 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mostly lower Wednesday, with platinum enduring heavy selling in Japan overnight, which carried over into New York.

In the bullion market, spot gold was $291.10/1.60 an ounce, compared with the late London kerb at $292.40 an ounce, and the Tuesday's New York close at $290.90/1.40 an ounce.

"Most of the action in the gold market has been on the downside," said one floor trader. "We opened higher on leftover sentiment from yesterday. But the trade and funds were sellers this morning."

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:15 - ID#43185)
Me neither. However my great hope is that no one can ever
really forsee how things are going to turn out and I am
probably completely wrong in my thinking as I often am.
This however is probably the same hope the captain of
the Titanic had when thinking he would wake up any moment
and it was all a dream.

The great irony of this whole thing is that the big time
speculators who have accumulated billions in their greed
for more dollars than anyone could ever possibly need by
manipulating curriencies, and all the other schemes they
engage in, will find that those billions are worthless
paper created from debt out of thin air and that they have
destroyed the lives of millions for no reason at all.

What doth it gain a man that he aquire the whole world
only to lose his own soul?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:21 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re Joe F.
BOY, he's got that down. I guess BC is coralled and Al will be easier to control. So, maybe old lady dow may roll a while longer. This is a real hummer, hard to figure so I guess you have to straddle. Thanx for the post, Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:23 - ID#335190)
Tender News & Positive good feel News Eh! @ Soros & Corporate USofA, Considering the POOR.Nice EH!
Young lawyers get grants from George Soros to 'correct injustices'

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Financier and philanthropist George Soros is giving at least $6.5 million Cdn over two years to help fund young lawyers who want to "correct injustices" by defending the kinds of clients who usually cannot afford them.

Soros' Open Society Institute is matching contributions from law firms and other private donors to pay for projects that include efforts to protect the elderly from consumer fraud, develop national food stamp policies and provide pro bono legal aid for such groups as farmworkers, immigrants and battered women.

The grants, announced Tuesday, provide fellowships for 70 attorneys just out of law school.

Co-sponsors of the fellowship include law firms from around the United States, as well as companies like Texaco, the Walt Disney Co. and Ford Motor Co.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:23 - ID#27341)
like i have written before,i like the way you think, money is nothing,life is everything.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:30 - ID#251166)
@ HenryD re. Frames & Kitco fees
You're right. It is goofed up, and so am I. Anyway, what would you consider a reasonable Kitco fee? $29.95/year? $159.95/year? Would the idea be to establish an entry threshhold for exclusivity? Or just to garner a few bucks to help underwrite web server help? What if Bart just required you buy a Mountie? Then everyone's a winner. Just some thoughts. dj

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:31 - ID#335190)
Indonesia OKs labor union, Suharto fortune estimated in billions

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP-Reuters ) -- Indonesia agreed Tuesday to recognize a banned labor union and sign a treaty on workers' rights, moving ahead with reforms as a new report emerged on the vast wealth of former President Suharto and his family.

After 32 years in power, Suharto quit May 21 after weeks of riots and protests sparked by Indonesia's worst economic crisis in decades.

On Monday, the attorney general's office launched a broad inquiry into corruption, including complaints that Suharto's family abused its position and power to build huge business empires.

Christianto Wibisono, an independent economist, estimated the Suharto family wealth Tuesday at about $20 billion US, based on the worth of companies and foundations controlled by them. Other estimates have ranged up to $40 billion.

Human rights groups criticized Suharto for suppressing workers' rights and allowing low wages and sweatshop conditions. Only one state-sanctioned labor union was permitted.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:34 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:37 - ID#373284)
If you liked that one you are going to love this one, every American should read the sentence I highlighted and keep reading it until they understand what it means. China looks at the US like a big Conch. The shell representing America held in the paw of a giant as it rips out the tender flesh inside the shell, representing US wealth, once the meat is gone the shell will be tossed.


Tiananmen judgment correct


The mainlands leaders yesterday again ruled out any revision of the official judgment on the Tiananmen Square massacre.

On the political disturbances in 1989, Chinas Communist Party and Government have made a correct conclusion, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao.

Theres no necessity to make a reassessment of this issue.


The pro-democracy demonstrations are still labelled a counter-revolutionary rebellion by Beijing.


Mr Zhu played down the significance of a commemoration in Hong Kong on Sunday which drew an estimated 2,700 people calling for a reassessment of the official verdict. It was the first such demonstration since the handover.

Any activities held in Hong Kong should abide by the Basic Law and other rules of the Special Administrative Region, he said.

I dont think that such activity will affect the situation in Hong Kong or the other activities in Hong Kong.

Champion of Tax
(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:40 - ID#288234)
I wonder if you'd admire the Freemen so much if you'd had your property encumbered with a fraudulent lien, or received one of their bogus drafts in payment of actual goods and services.

Recently I read a tax case where Freemen-style arguments were raised and rejected. Filing lawsuits against officials is a common tax protestor technique, and it always fails.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:40 - ID#335190)
Globalization-Competition= solid national economics @ What the hell is 2,000 lost jobs eh!
Boeing to close Toronto plant with 2,022 jobs

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Boeing Canada plant here which employs more than 2,000 people will disappear after the company announced today it is phasing out production of the MD-11 jetliner.

Today's news, which affects 600 employees building wings for the MD-11, follows previous decisions by Boeing to stop production of the MD-80 and MD-90, affecting sub-contracts at the Toronto plant.

Boeing Canada president George Capern said losing the MD-95 work will leave the plant, currently employing 2,022, with almost no contracts with the giant Seattle-based manufacturer.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:43 - ID#187109)
thank your son for me..........I held back on more plat. We will buy it lower, yes? ( I will anyway ) ......uh huh.

October NYMEX will be the play. And I will be ready. w/w


go silver........ ( ? ) ...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:44 - ID#373284)
here is an interesting link

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:45 - ID#320202)
I will come to your rescue with these URL's.......

Thank you, ( the aphids are no more ) ,now, I wonder on the outcome of the Euro - meeting ? and if it get,s Gold out of the doldrums ? will it ever? One Kitcoite said a couple of weeks ago, that when finally gold will rally, most ( old ) gold-bugs,will by than have given up in disgust,and be out of it. Gosh, I sure hope it does not happen to me !!

......hanging in there


(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:50 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re chinese democracy
Well! What else can you say? Relate clinton's guts to the meat of the conch. Damn T. you know how to pick this stuff. Matbe we ought to put you on TV to educate the public. What do you think? Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:54 - ID#36156)
jonesy - re. Frames & Kitco fees
How much? Only the Bartman knows for sure. $30/year seems reasonable to me ... more if it includes enhancements such as XAU, DJI and other realtime quotes.

This subject was addressed before on this forum. I recall that most Kitcoites were willing to part with a few plukats to support the site. It was shortly thereafter that Bart started posting the advertisement banners and Mountie sales.

I'm not sure how successful these cash generators have been, but when you consider that this forum is but one out of three, it's not hard to assume that he's still spreading his resources thin. Also, those pages not related to discussions are bound to get more funding since they directly contribute to Kitco's bottom line. Therefore, the only way I see of "reserving" funds for improvements to the technical quality of the discussion groups is to turn them into profit centers too... hence a charge.


the moon
(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:55 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:56 - ID#373284)
chas, me on tv?!?
I would have to own the network with no shareholders so that I would have total control to let the fur really fly.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 11:58 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:03 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 TV
So OK, it would pay to buy the damn TV to get out the word. If a local was reasonable, I'm sure national would pick it up. Somebody has to educate them, who else? Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:05 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, this is interesting...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:05 - ID#43185)
The System
Sometimes people see a conspiracy where in actuality the state of
affairs is just a natural consequence of "The System". As case in
point I submit the way that the US criminal justice system seems to
be ever more catering to and condescending of the criminal as
opposed to the victim. We might even think there was collaberation.

Actually it is a matter of the system. Countless thousands of judges,
lawyers and policeman's livelihood depend uopn the existence of the
criminal. It is in the systems best interest to get the criminal
back out on the street and working as soon as possible.

No one actually consciously favors the criminal, its just that any
system evolves so as to perpetuate itself. The best money is to be
found in being a defense attorney rather than some underpaid
prosecutor somewhere. So all the best minds become defense attorneys.

If the legal justice system's livelihood depended upon the income from
prisoners making shoes and license plates, it would be no time at
all before everyone was working away in prison.

Today's economic system is in chaos, and perhaps it's not because of
some grand conspiracy, but rather that it's time for a new system.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:06 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 - forgot
Maybe we can get china to take care of the FCC!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:08 - ID#225273)
Bema Gold
Someone asked about Bema Gold.
BGO is supposed to produce over 100,000 ounces of gold in partnership with Amax Gold at the Refugio mine in Chile.
Production has never matched projections.

The big property for BGO is its ownership in Cerro Casale, also in Chile. The figures announced last night put this deposit at 846 million tonnes of .72 grams/tonne gold and .29% copper. At today's prices this is only $10 per tonne rock. And being so deep in the earth, it will have to be mined by underground methods, which raises the costs.
Construction of the plant, if my figures are correct, will cost more than $2.5 billion.
Even if theoretically money can be made by mining the metal, at today's prices, noone will spend the money to build that plant. Now if the mine had been built in a better climate, they might keep mining with prices this low. But with prices this low, noone will build the mine. IMO.

So BGO becomes a call on higher metals prices. If, for instance, gold was to move to $400 and copper to $1.00, shares of BGO would absolutely aoar, because this huge deposit moves from uneconomic to very economic and HUGE.

That' how I sees it.

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:14 - ID#307271)
Hecla is back up to 5 1/8. CDE is up 3/16. Hopefully the silvers will maintain and pave the way for gold to bounce back in the PM.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:15 - ID#187109)
hi moon
what are your THOUGHTS regarding near term POG....and then the rest of '98? The test is over. Jump in with both feet. the grind


John Disney__A
(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:17 - ID#24135)
Rangy fans
To all
the nasty news is that rangold resources
FELL on the London exchange to $5.38.
This plus recent declines deeps etc etc
has knocked the Rangold NAV to about
$1.65 I estimate.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:20 - ID#329186)
Lady_Bug ~ID320202
With regard to the European gravy train brigade we will undoubtably be kept in the dark until its suits them. ( lets hope BLAIR does not pull a crafty move and get the UK in EMU with the 1st Lot.
It was either posted on kitco or golden eagle 6 months ago: It is better to be 1 year early in Gold wrather than a week late I think that holds good now. The tricksters and manulipulators will eventually hang themselves ( one or 2 families excluded ) so the more people you can convince to buy a few oz of gold the better. Lets hope that the USA practice does not flow into Europe

Have patience buy gold


(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:21 - ID#251166)
@ HenryD re. Kitco Fees
You know, if these discussion pages were searchable by key words and phrases, that would be worth A LOT to me, certainly the price of a Mountie. Your thoughts?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:23 - ID#212323)
Gollum...your !0:11 post was pure brilliance!
And the light won't hurt your eyes.

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:25 - ID#26362)
Hey Preach!
If you have been puzzling over Bema's $10 rock and how they are going to make a profit out of it, you might take a squint at Apex Silver ( SIL ) which has a drill proven 200 million tons of $28 rock. On going development by theis Soros project will probably result in an announcement of doubling reserves within the next few months with the probability of expanding further. Looks like a no brainer to me.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:32 - ID#196178)
@Preacher --- Bema
Thanks for your thoughts. May give it a shot when I think the bottom is in, which doesn't look like now. IMHO US equities will tank below Dow 8200 before GOLD gets going in a meaningful way. Should be next month or so.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:32 - ID#289357)
Good 'ol boy @ Silver Mines

Here's a REAL no-brainer....

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:36 - ID#27341)
Gollum, yep, its time for one with equality.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:39 - ID#289357)
Good 'ol boy @ Silver mines - some pretty pictures

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:41 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Palladium reminds me some poor duck, wounded in a flight
and just about to be finished by the hunter...on the ground.
Very little chance of escape...

Limited pickle test ( no vodka used ) showed that gold may
start moving up to $320 area any minute...I'm not serious,
of course.

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:42 - ID#26362)
Thanks Silver Baron
Looks like a great bonanza deposit, wonder why they are taking som much time to start mining. Giddyup.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:44 - ID#25171)
S&P 500 profits came out for Q1 1.5% ahead of last year. S&P 400 non-financial corporations was 2.4% below year ago levels.
From may last year , the S&P 500 is up 30%. European markets are up between 50 and 70% for the same period of time.
How long is the state of denial going to last?
The reason why the market didn't collapse in april was that the next Qs would show a sharp rebound in profits.
Contracting profit margins , sharply falling ASIAN imports and exploding inventories point in the other direction.
Trade and current account deficits are skyrocketting. The $/DM is heavier than lead .
Loan defaults in ASIA will cripple western finacial institutions for years.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:45 - ID#27341)
How about the,Universal Gold-Leaf Note.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:45 - ID#410198)
gollum and downunder..calling for a revolution...where do I sign up :)

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:46 - ID#26362)
What's going on Alfie. How can the U.S. not be effected by all the misery going on in the rest of the world? Anyone have any good thoughts as to the how and when. Seems like the U.S. is sitting on a big bubble which is about to pop.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:46 - ID#26793)
The evidence for deflation is growing stronger daily. A couple of months ago I had a bunch of posts about auto production and overcapacity. By year 2000 there will be factories on-line producing 80,000,000 units per year. Those plant construction decisions were made before Asia tumbled.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:53 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron & Good ol Boy
Re ECM. I got the web from Joe Smith today. Best I can tell from 'tween the lines, is ther's a bug in it. Not the deposit, but the management. I'm working with Joe to define this. It looks like a Big pocket with who knows what around it. If I can dig out the pertinent details, I'll let you know. My guess is that if you had enough money to grab a substantial % , you would come out smelling GOOOD. This really interests me, but I'm not there.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:53 - ID#373284)
aside from the fact that fiat is a lie, sorta like the fox watching over the chicken
farm, I see the total lack of understanding of technology as to what will bring the world to its knees financially. Those who do not own tangibles outright will be slaughtered in the meltdown. Paper won't even waste its time with a burn, it will go right to ash. Electrons representing fiat simply won't be there when the screens go blank.

I guess those crazy kids who wrote The Great Reckoning actually wrote the script for this mess after all..............................

(Wed Jun 03 1998 12:59 - ID#373284)
If we are not careful China will take care of alot more than the FCC.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:04 - ID#373403)
Welfare, corporate welfare, international welfare
These are all shakedowns in order to ensure peace and stability. We pay people who do not perform well within the capitalist structure. Compassion or pragmatism? We pay corporations like Chrysler who do not perform well within the capitalist structure.

Now we will pay Russia due to their innability to perform well under capitalism. There will be no discussion, the money WILL be provided, unlike the IMF funding controversey. Why? Because of the implied threat of communist reversion.

Therefore, the capitalist disenfranchised threaten communism and pull us towards socialism.

At what point do we say no more funding and at what point is there revolution?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:05 - ID#43185)
Probably don't even have to sign up. Things are pretty much on their
way toward unfolding under their own accord. I wouldn't want to be
in Clinton's shoes. People could put up with a lot of his shenanigans,
singing "We're in the money" here in the roaring 90's, while the
markets were going up, but then Suharto used to be kind of popular too.

No I don't think it's a matter of signing up. Just stand by the roadside
and watch all the torches, pitchforks, and clubs go by.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:09 - ID#43185)
@Good ol' boy
Don't worry, Alfie, they will be effected. They will be effected.
Most of them just don't know it yet. Most of them don't get back
to the page seven news until it works it's way up to the headlines.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:10 - ID#210235)
@Donald, it begins.

S. Korean firm cuts chip production

SEOUL, South Korea - Hyundai Electronics temporarily has stopped
making computer memory chips to help ease a global supply glut and
shore up falling chip prices. The move by Hyundai was expected to be
followed by Samsung and LG. The three South Korean firms supply
40% of the world's memory chips, called Dynamic Random Access
Memory ( DRAM ) chips. Hyundai says its plant outside Seoul will
remain idle until next Tuesday.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:12 - ID#187109)
.....Tol#1...... 'agulp' to ya'....
I agree regarding China.......The west keep at least ONE eye open whilst we slumber.......and stop 'awakening' them at every chance.................they need NO 'awakening', they are truly capable of this act by themselves..............they will make Gigantor & Godzilla look like Sheller's leeeeetle doggie ( ppe? ) leeeeeezard ( ! ) , leeeeezard ( ! ) ...... ( play the song RJ ) .........

a gulp = agulp. it sounds like it goes down smooother.

stay alive silver...........get ready to call 911......

the moon
(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:12 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:13 - ID#43185)
Yeah, it's the same old cycle. Boom times and bust times. The boom
time has stretched out so long this time everyones had a chance to
get reeeeaaaallly far out on the limb. We're gonna have one grand
lollapalooza of a bust time.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:13 - ID#289357)
Good 'ol boy @ ECM
I hear rumbling that some large quantities of the ore sample that was originally analyzed ( a 103 metric ton sample ) were stolen and selling on the black market for something like $45/gram as specimens. This is a HOT find, only ( as chas says ) the management is pitiful at P.R.

Nobody really knows yet how far the deposit goes, but the concentrations they will soon be mining are unbelievable, averaging 1% silver with additional credits for PGMs. Yet, the stock has gone nowhere for months. Go figure.

If they really net $300 million as advertised, it will be a bonanza for shareholders, even if only in dividends. A number of the HotCopper forum participants did valuation calculations some time ago based on known data ( about 60,000 metric tons ore @ 1% silver ) and arrived at a valuation of about US$2.00 if I recall correctly. ECM was selling the last time I looked at about US $0.35 or 0.40/ share.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:13 - ID#347235)
Lady-Bug, Argent
Lady bug, NAZI was a contraction of "Nazional Zocailist AirbeitPartie"
( Reify check my spelling I am not 100%sure ) in English it is National Socialist Workers Party.

Argent, You should repost Dan Kennedy's URL so some more of us can try to educate him away from socialism, I can only do so much. He is very hard headed about it. thks

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:14 - ID#335190)
The Issue IS @ FEAR
A corrected story follows.

LONDON, June 3 ( Reuters ) - Current jittery conditions in non-ferrous metals look like continuing for some time, as these markets, like other commmodities, fret over storm-clouds from Asia, Japan, and Russia.

Sales from investment funds have battered several London Metal Exchange ( LME ) metals this week, and there could be more of the same, analysts said.

"It ebbs and flows from day to day, and it is not the specific fundamentals, rather it is the macro-economic picture that is driving the commodities - metals, oil and softs," analyst Robin Bhar of LME trader Brandeis ( Brokers ) Ltd, part of the Pechiney International SA Group said.
The metal markets have wrestled all year with the disparate currency, banking and political woes in Asia and Japan. But now, there is a groundswell of concern over the sickly Russian economy to contend with.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:15 - ID#342315)
tolerant re chicken in the hen house
FCC was just the opening shot. I'm going to read the ..Reckoning.. and see how we line up. Should have done it before. The total lack of understanding to bring it down evolves from total lack of understanding of what to do about the fix. Can't help but like your incisive thinking, Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:19 - ID#373284)
A gulp back at ya. Namaste'

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:22 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re ECM
Joe's last figure to me on specimens was $15/gram. I would not doubt $45 on resale. This is an early stage of something that can make a quick buck, but you really got to know how to CYA. More later when I hear from Joe.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:26 - ID#373284)
chas, when you are done with that one try their recipe for the future
The Sovereign Individual. I use it as a pillow so it will hopefully soak through my thick skull. Yeah, I know, wishful thinking on my part. But I am an optimist barbarian if nothing else.

I just thought of something, really I did. It might work better if I took my helmet off when I sleep. Tough to break old habits.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:28 - ID#36156)
jonesy (@ HenryD re. Kitco Fees)
Jonesy; On this page, you can search by word using CTRL F. Also, Bart has a word/phrase search engine for the archived posts, but I don't have the URL on my office computer.

So, go ahead, buy your Mountie ... Bart's earned it ...just wish he'd accept credit card orders.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:29 - ID#335190)
Tory Senator did not know he was doing wrong @ Brian Mulroney didn't warn him EH!
Tory senator convicted of influence-peddling

MONTREAL ( CP ) -- Tory Senator Michel Cogger was found guilty Tuesday of influence-peddling by lobbying the government for a private client after his appointment to the upper chamber.

Quebec Court Judge Robert Sansfacon rejected the defence that Cogger did not know he was doing anything wrong. "Ignorance of the law is no excuse," said Sansfacon, dismissing Cogger's argument that no one warned him.

Pre-sentence arguments will be heard June 12. Neither Cogger nor his lawyer had any comment after the decision. It was the second trial for Cogger, 59, named to the Senate in 1986 by then-prime minister Brian Mulroney.

Cogger was acquitted in 1993 of peddling his influence to businessman Guy Montpetit, a decision later upheld by Quebec Court of Appeal.

But the Supreme Court of Canada last year ordered a new trial on the grounds that Cogger's defence -- the idea that he never intended to commit a crime -- should have been ruled out of bounds.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:31 - ID#410198)
Gollum ....being serious and sorry Bart,there has been a silent revolution going on for a while now
one place to find it is the chat forum of Free Republic and here,the reality hit home with main stream press yesterday ( they are supposed to be informing us ) when Matt Drudge speaking before the elite Washington press corp,let them have it,....we the people are now by passing you folks we have no editors,no special interest,just the facts....when he told them he gets a million hits a day they paid attention.....whats NYT daily circulation 250,000.....

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:32 - ID#43185)
The lights turning yellow, step on the gas!
I kind of liked this 6paks find:

 "History shows us that producers tend not to voluntarily cut output, instead playing a poker game of hunkering down in the hope that someone else folds first," Nick Moore of the Flemings Global Mining Group said in the latest 'Commodity Companion.'
 But as the metal cycle turns lower, producers tend to maximise output to drive down unit costs of production, pushing the market into a bigger surplus and pressuring prices further, Flemings said.
 "What is needed is production cuts. What the world does not need is more production. There could be light at the end of the tunnel, but how long is the tunnel?" Bhar said.
 "Prices are going to remain depressed, maybe for the next 12 to 18 months," Squires said.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:34 - ID#242325)
Chinese devalution and a final gold trough
RJ made a great gold call, but what is happening to platinum. Guess nobody gets it right all the time.

Donald: Thanks for posting that Forbes article on the expected Chinese devaluation! Schilling has made many good calls and he has been correct about the long-term move to disinflation and deflation -- at least for goods and commodities. I suspect this prospect is the real reason behind the dismal performance of gold and many other commodities of late. The deflationary wave out of Asia is far more important to the gold price in my judgement than whether the ECB will hold 15% or 20% of its reserves in AU.

I suspect the final bottom will occur when the Chinese devalue. Buyimg pold and Asian stocks right after such a devaluation probably will be like loading up on US stocks in 1982. Until then it will be rough going.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:38 - ID#335190)
Sooooo, Social Safety Net (Welfare), Is the Cause of High Taxes. EH!
Dollar defence costs half a billion dollars

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- The Bank of Canada spent $528 million US in May defending the value of the Canadian dollar, the Finance Department said today.

The already weak loonie took a nosedive in May after Gordon Thiessen, governor of the Bank of Canada, said he would probably not raise interest rates in the next six months but an increase was likely in early 1999 to keep inflation in check.

As an alternative to raising interest rates, the central bank frequently uses Ottawa's reserves of U.S. funds to buy the Canadian dollar to shore up its value.

Overall, reserves fell $1.222 billion US to $20.564 billion as the government spent $767 million paying foreign currency debt. It earned $103 million on investments and lost $30 million due to revaluation.

In April, the central bank had spent $340 million defending the currency.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:38 - ID#194311)
a slow hand for a slow day.
not at all gold but fascinating

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:38 - ID#27341)
Makes you think about all those oil production cuts that never happened.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:41 - ID#350179)
Not gold news

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:41 - ID#289357)
chas @ ECM

Your're probably right - my memory sucks sometimes...half-heimer's disease, you know - one step past C.R.S. ( according to my wife )

( ;^ ) )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:43 - ID#210235)
Last January, I believe it was, there was a site at which you could read all Kitco posts by author. This would be so very useful, now, when I'm trying to remember who posted which grains would benefit in price by heat/drought.

My bookmarks all disappeared 4 months ago, and that one is eluding me. If this site is no longer active, and you know it, please also post that, and I'll stop repeating this request.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:43 - ID#373284)
They should have bought $528,000,000 in gold so they could take better care of their socialist system.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:44 - ID#194311)
wonder if it responds to gold gifts...and you get to keep it?
"Virtual woman" to woo computer Casanovas

ROME ( Reuters ) - Casanovas will be able to hone seduction skills on their computer screens next week when a "virtual woman," a kind of
electronic playmate who responds to attention like a real woman, goes on the market.

Peruzzo Informatica, the Italian multimedia company marketing the device, described it as a "Tamagotchi for adults" after the Japanese virtual pet
that became a worldwide fad.

Unlike the Tamagotchi, Rachel the virtual woman lives on a computer screen. Peruzzo described her as "incredibly charming, passionate,

She could be in a bad mood but responded to being sent flowers, would gradually become closer to her suitor and could even reward him with a
screen striptease.

"There's nothing pornographic about it, it's just a game," a company spokesman said. Rachel could quickly be clicked away out of sight "so you
can still pretend to be serious at work."

The virtual woman, which is already proving a hit in Germany and the Netherlands, goes on sale in Italy next week and costs 34,900 lire ( $20 ) .

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:45 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste'

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:45 - ID#194311)
wonder if it responds to gold gifts...and you get to keep it?
"Virtual woman" to woo computer Casanovas

ROME ( Reuters ) - Casanovas will be able to hone seduction skills on their computer screens next week when a "virtual woman," a kind of
electronic playmate who responds to attention like a real woman, goes on the market.

Peruzzo Informatica, the Italian multimedia company marketing the device, described it as a "Tamagotchi for adults" after the Japanese virtual pet
that became a worldwide fad.

Unlike the Tamagotchi, Rachel the virtual woman lives on a computer screen. Peruzzo described her as "incredibly charming, passionate,

She could be in a bad mood but responded to being sent flowers, would gradually become closer to her suitor and could even reward him with a
screen striptease.

"There's nothing pornographic about it, it's just a game," a company spokesman said. Rachel could quickly be clicked away out of sight "so you
can still pretend to be serious at work."

The virtual woman, which is already proving a hit in Germany and the Netherlands, goes on sale in Italy next week and costs 34,900 lire ( $20 ) .

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:46 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re 1/2 heimers
No sweat, I got it too. And a wife that never lets me forget- what I need is a wife that always helps me REMEMBER, cheers

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:48 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re The Great
Called local book store. They don't know!! How about the title and author ( I should know, but with bureaucrats, it has to be right ) Thanx, C

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:51 - ID#208393)
Kitco Search Engine

Warning. It doesn't work right either.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:52 - ID#373284)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:53 - ID#256254)
I know that I should know the answer to this BUT...
has anyone asked Bart to fix the pm tickers???

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:55 - ID#194311)
Starr says move fast..begin impeachment proceedings
Clinton playing it cool...only for so long.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:56 - ID#36156)
How come I need a username and password when I click on the Mountie banner?????


(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:57 - ID#289357)

The Great Reckoning

( maybe a few more words in the title than this )

James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:58 - ID#36156)
kitkat, T1 (Kitco Search Engine)- Thank you both!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:58 - ID#242325)
gold and deflation
Hamlet: If you believe deflation is good for gold and invest accordingly, your net worth probably will suffer severely. The current deflationary tsunami out of Asia has killed, is killing, and will continue to kill gold and other commodites until it is reversed.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 13:58 - ID#256254)
Gold delivery notices SO FAR FOR JUNE 8,600 ... Looks like alot of interest to me.
COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

Aig Clearing Corporation 1 Aig Clearing Corporation 2
Prudential Securities Inc. 70 Prudential Securities Inc. 36
Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 42 Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 59
E.D.&F. Man International 48 Cargill Investor Services 7
Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 3 E.D.&F. Man International 59
Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 1 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 2

Saul Stone and Company 3 Prudential Securities Inc. 3

Goldman Sachs & Co. 1 Aig Clearing Corporation 16
Prudential Seucrities Inc. 75 Prudential Securities Inc 121
Age Commodity Clearing Corp. 2 Deutsche Morgan Grenfell 66
Geldermann Inc. 21 Carr Futures Inc. 1
Lind-Waldock & Company 25 First Chicago Stone, Inc. 4
Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc 311 Credit Lyonnais Rouse 2
The Bank of Nova Scotia 63 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc 19
Smith Barney Inc. 11 The Bank of Nova Scotia 97
TOTAL 509 Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc 102
-- J.P. Morgan Futures, Inc. 26
-- Saul Stone and Company 6
-- Painewebber Incorporated 11
-- Republic N.Y. Securities 16
-- Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 1
-- Smith Barney Inc. 21
-- TOTAL 509

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 165 3 509
SO FAR FOR JUNE 2,328 7 8,600

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:00 - ID#26362)
Silver Baron
Strange. One might smell a fraud but for Behre Dolbear's placing its reputation on the line. My question is- with ores averaging about $1,200 per ton just 275' or so beneath surface, what are they messing around for. I could proabably have it in production at 100 tpd for well under $500,000. Giddyup.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:00 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 & Silverbaron
Each separate, I got it and thanx

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:01 - ID#208393)
@ A.Goose
Bart has left the building.

( Unlike us, think he has to work for a living. )

I also agree that he should charge for site access and hire a decent programmer. The purchase of one Mountie coin sounds reasonable.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:05 - ID#373284)
Good ol' Boy - Are you kidding or what!
Gimme a spoon I would be down there in ten minutes for 3%

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:07 - ID#229277)
Gollum: The System
If you can't get the plane nose down out of the stall before you run out of air, then... whoops! You gotta build a now plane! Trouble is, the transition from one System to another is usually attended by violent and ugly events. You don't need to start a war to end a depression, depressions cause political conflicts that lead to war.

The country facing the most pressure for systemic change is Japan. They have to completely reinvent themselves. I expect they will, but not until after a collapse of their current system, terrible hardship and internal conflict, and then rebirth. Rebirth to what? The Socialists are waiting on the sidelines to make their case. They even got some play in the US during the last depresion here. Political cycles follow economic cycles follow political cycles...

p.s. Ever heard of Flat Top Jonny's?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:08 - ID#253153)
You tend to critizice people for their opinions for NO reason.
You don't have to agree with anyone but DON'T critizice. . Understood.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:08 - ID#375108)
Midas_A @ 0925
Sorry for delay in responding...have been tied up. I agree that BGO and especially AZS are undervalued but after the shareholder massacre by management last fall it is really no wonder. The charts of last fall tell only part of the tale, and one could write a tome about it. As I say, if one had a week it could all be read on the BGO/AZS thread on SI. I'll never put a another cent in a Clive Johnson-controlled company; being at the mercy of the gawdawful gold price has been bad enough, but being fed misleading information combined with periods of no information from the company just before a horrific sellout is quite another. This outfit also has a nasty habit of increasing the float, but that is another matter. There are other undervalued gold stocks that I'd look at instead. And again, this is all my opinion...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:12 - ID#210235)
@kitkat, Tol1
Thanks, got it. It will work again.

Just heard Clinton on MFN status for China. Everything he said I heard as a double entendre. Hilarious, listening to him talk about cooperation and sharing our ideas with China. The whole world is laughing. That man has no face left.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:13 - ID#374242)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:13 - ID#342315)
Good ol' boy re your 14:00
This can be a long story. My email is Send yours and I'll do my best for Giddyup. Thanx Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:13 - ID#373284)
Old Gold, I tend to disagree. I think we have been in a massive inflationary era
for many years. Hence the weakness in gold. During deflation gold is the anchor which provides financial protection and in fact rises in price. With a thousand ounces you would have been well protected in Asia.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:14 - ID#210235)
If someone isn't introducing ideas to peer review, they should stay away from this forum. We learn here by thrashing ideas about.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:14 - ID#254269)
Important Dates ; June 24th 1997 was the day of the Hashimoto speech in NY re
selling treasuries and buying gold. Remember that one ! Sent DOW down 192 points.
Also, WSJ has article today re November 3rd ( election day ) as the date which Ken Starr has to be mindful of, as he does his report.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:15 - ID#210235)
@ hi, the
Are you related to the moon?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:16 - ID#212323)
Some people who own gold may never fully appreciate what they have until they get more physical with their physical...bend it, flatten it, melt it, stretch it, and basically come to know it on its own terms. Truly a unique substance compared with other metals. YOU of all people know this, because you are skilled in the craft.

When I wreak my own style of havoc on a bullion coin, I only succeed in destroying to coin's premium, but the spot value remains. If I can apply my art with precision, I can command a substantially higher premium...but that is not my goal.

Steve, I want to treat one ounce as a lump of clay. What simple advice can you give...particularly in the realm of the annealing process for a kitchen-counter goldsmith. Is candle flame adequate, etc...?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:17 - ID#342315)
Prometheus BC
Just like him, thanx. Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:17 - ID#429270)
On coining money in the Clinton/Greenspan era...
Today Berkshire Hathaway has risen to an all time high of $75,600,00/share on 100 shares. This is up $1900 on 100 shares.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:18 - ID#251166)
@ HenryD, Tolerant1, Kitkat, et al. re. Kitco Search Engine
Thank you! It IS working, however only through January 9, 1998.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:19 - ID#256254)
Date: Wed Jun 03 1998 14:01
kitkat ( @ A.Goose ) ID#208393:

kitkat a mountie sounds fair. Sad to see kitco in such shape. The paint is flaking, the wallpapper is peeling, and the folks that still shuffle through the halls talk of the great days of the past and the way things should be.

I guess it is a bottom or the end...

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Jun 03, 1998 @ 2:17 pm ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC Q8 August Gold 2942 +10 +0.3 2962 2923 35.1K

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:22 - ID#289357)
Good 'ol boy @ ECM & LEG

My impression is that Joe Smith and Ian Powell ( the two authors of the web sites ) have more than a passing interest in this ( I don't - I only bought 5K shares as a speculation ) . They can tell you more than anyone else I'm aware of.

Joe's email is

Ian's email is

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:29 - ID#26362)
Tolerent 1
If I tell you that a rooster can pull a box cart, you had best hook up that little darling. I am not kidding. Its no big trick to ramp or shaft with 100 tpd capacity at such shallow depths. With ores srunning at 500 opt which can be sold as specimens, what are they waiting for. I'd have some pots ready for cookin'. Something would be smellin good in the kitchen.

cool lurk
(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:31 - ID#342237)
ola. whoopee!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:32 - ID#333127)
According to Eliot Janeway ( deceased ) gold goes the opposite of the currency in power. During the last depression both the dollar and gold were held by the rich, other hard assets fell. Gold stks did very well. From what I understand gold and gold stks did well because the rich did not trust the government and what they might do to confiscate their wealth. IMHO with deflation in the US I want gold also,I don't have a clue as to what the gov will do to keep the county going. As far as deflation and depression now going on outside the US gold is going down due to forced survival sales by desperate people. Gold has worked for them and IMHO as soon as they get on their feet they will re-buy what worked for them in the past. I hope the dollar stays strong for a long time,I still think gold can go back up to say 400/oz in this situation. Janeway said regards inflation, gold either far exceeds the rate of inflation or does not keep up with it. CHAOS is the main mover of gold along with fear not inflation.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:34 - ID#335190)
tolerant1 @ 13:43
THEY ( power's to be ? ) can not take care of their ( power's to be ? ) socialist system. The confusion is understanding what socialist system they ( the power's to be ? ) are taking care of. Corporate socialist - People socialist - Tribe socialist - Democratic socialist - Capitalist socialist - international socialism. Nationalist Socialist party ( nazi ) etc.

Why hell, I have no idea what is the meaning of socialism. Tribalism is what? We are told about this or that group. Tory - Liberal - Socialist - Communist - Capitalist - Religionist - Spiritualism - Unionist - etc. etc. Sooooo, socialism I expect is a tribe, like any other eh!

People, citizen, worker, father, brother, friend, co-worker, mother, sister, etc. etc. is unacceptable. One must be stationed in a group ( tribe ) , to identify and explain some motive/issue eh!

Thanks Take Care.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:37 - ID#254269)
Quote of the day; " A hero is one who holds on just one minute longer"
Believed to be a Norwegian Proverb.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:40 - ID#255217)
I think it was Squirrel who related the Dan Kennedy screech. I have so little regard for socialists I pay absolutely no attention to their rantings, much less bother to egage them is discourse. By the way, after a politician is out of office, would it be illegal to tar and feather him? How about while he is still IN office? Would it make a difference?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:44 - ID#210235)
@Wealth tax
I read recently that several states are soaking "the rich" by an imposed wealth tax, which is distinct from an income tax as it is a direct confiscation of a percentage of assets. This was posed as yet another reason to hold metals in the physical form, as the writer expects the Fed to adopt this ploy to solve future budget crises that are assured by unfunded liabilities currently extant.

Anyone here familiar with this wealth tax 7 states have adopted? How does it work?

trader ed
(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:49 - ID#373349)
EB - your 01:24 post
I like sugar as a long, for about 125 to 140 points. The daily and weekly charts say this down move is about over, but the monthly chart says that the down move has a way to go yet. My interpretation is that we are in for a rather lengthy corrective pattern on the weekly charts.
I like beans and wheat on the long side much better. The charts are much more clear than the sugar chart.
Good luck.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:50 - ID#338228)
Are you talking about the Intangible Tax. Florida has
such a tax. The tax calculation in .001 for all assets
( stocks, bonds, mutual funds, money markets and limited
partnerships ) below $100,000 and .002 for assets above
$100,000 ) . But they also have no state or city taxes. I
believe Ohio also has an intagible tax as well as state
and city taxes.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:53 - ID#429270)
Wealth tax... Florida has an "intangible property tax, which in return for disclosing
all of your paper assets, taxes them thoroughly.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:56 - ID#338228)
Aug Gold...up $2.50
Looks like Aug gold ended up $2.50 to $295.70 ( up $1.50 in the last 15 minutes of trading ) .

Preacher...we have a ways to go to fill that gap on the XAU.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:56 - ID#254269)
Silverbaron ; re ECM and LEG; of the two, which do you
prefer ? And, is there any particular reason for your preference ?Thanks.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:58 - ID#210235)
@Nato seeks to send 25,000 troops to Kosovo

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:58 - ID#255217)
Whoops ...
Looks like my guess yesterday that G & S would be down today is going to be wrong. AND I COULDN'T BE MORE DELIGHTED! Dare we hope for tomorrow?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 14:59 - ID#347235)
Sorry for the mistake, I sometimes suffer from CRS, I invited this flake to come on down to Kitco so we can all try to educate him about the virtues of WORK and GOLD. I think he is hopeless but we can try. thks

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:01 - ID#429270)
Wealth tax ...however, Florida is ultimately run on the estate tax, which they
divey up with the Feds, and which allows Florida the "luxury" of being
able to say they have no state tax. A complete fallacy.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:01 - ID#335190)
U.S. scrambles to prevent financial meltdown in Russia

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The United States and other wealthy countries are scrambling to prevent a financial meltdown in Russia as turbulence in emerging markets around the globe raised fears the Asian crisis has entered a new and more dangerous phase.

Rubin told the business group that the U.S. trade deficit would "go up substantially" this year because of the Asian turmoil but that the U.S. economy should be able to withstand that shock because of continued strong domestic demand and low inflationary pressures.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:04 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Interesting virtual book on the Committee of 300 at this site:

Down on pages 20 through 24, it lists some of its goals. Here are a few of them, but by no means just the more important ones:

( 1 ) A One World Government-New World Order with a unified church and monetary system under their direction. Not many people are aware that the One World Government began setting up its "church" in the 1920's/1930's, for they realized the need for a religious belief inherent in mankind to have an outlet and, therefore, set up a "church" body to channel that belief in the direction they desired.

( 3 ) The destruction of religion and more especially the Christian religion, with the one exception, their own creation mentioned above.

( 4 ) Control of each and every person through means of mind control and what Brzezinski call "technotronics" which would create human-like robots and a system of terror beside which Felix Dzerzinski's Red Terror will look like children at play.

( 6 ) Legalization of drugs and pornography.

( 16 ) To cause a total collapse of the world's economies and engender total political chaos.

( 18 ) To give the fullest support to supranational institutions such as the United Nations ( UN ) , the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS ) , the World Court and, as far as possible, make local institutions of lesser effect by gradually phasing them out or bringing them under the mantle of the United Nations.

( 19 ) Penetrate and subvert all governments, and work from within them to destroy the sovereign integrity of nations represented by them.

( 21 ) Take control of education in America with the intent and purpose of utterly and completely destroying it.

What was that quote by ole Huxley? 'The future of humanity is a jack-boot in the face'? You better go read the rest of the story!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:07 - ID#338228)
Do not all states participate in the estate tax?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:09 - ID#335190)
Bank of Canada Corporation, not being treated fair @ Martin is painted as being in charge. B*** S*
Low dollar Martin's fault, economists say

Canadians have been too poor to respond to the interest rate cuts instituted by the Bank of Canada to stimulate the economy. -- With after-tax income of Canadians eight per cent lower than it was in 1990,

Rubin and Shenfeld call for $4.5 billion in personal income tax cuts to offset the economic consequences of raising interest rates -- something the central bank will eventually be forced to do -- to bolster the Canadian dollar.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:10 - ID#210235)
@golddkm, frustrated
The intangible tax sounds right. This is what I understand: The Fed has enormous unfunded liabilities in the form of future Social Security taxes and Medicare, etc. Also, we continue to have a greater concentration of wealth in fewer hands, as more people are sliding into debt, and only a small percentage of families save and practice conservative, wealth-building habits. With seven states having already broken ground on wealth-confiscation through this new tax, it is just too good for the Fed to pass up. Further, as it's got the Robin Hood ring of stealing from the "rich" to help the poor, it will be popular, as was the income tax when it was first introduced.

The recommendation was to quietly accumulate physical gold & silver coins.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:11 - ID#210235)
@We'd better pass the vodka and pickles
to Studio.r for calling "whoopie Wednesday".

Good ol' boy
(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:14 - ID#26362)
Head for Wyoming. Giddyup!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:16 - ID#347235)
August gold up $2.00 and the XAU is flat . Can someone please explain this weakness to me .

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:17 - ID#213265)
@the scene
6pak -- Wonder why they keep calling the US a wealthy nation being that we are by far the biggest debtor nation of all. Must be 'Newspeak' crap where debt is wealth ( and black is white ) !

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:18 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Hut -- Probably means that August gold will just get above 296 tomorrow and crap out.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:21 - ID#289357)

I own ECM, and bought it without doing a detailed comparison of the relative interests and shares + options of the two partners.

Someone at HotCopper ( ) did a thorough comparison - I believe the answer was that the share price ratio should be about 3.8 to 1 ( ECM to LEG ) . If the ratio was much larger than this, LEG is the better buy, if the ratio is much smaller, ECM is the better buy.

Don't quote me on the 3.8 ratio, however - I could be in error; better to do a search on the ECM thread at HotCopper to find the actual study. You might also ask Joe Smith or Ian Powell about this - they are close to the activities and know others who might have an opinion..

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:21 - ID#410198)
In my opion(off topic)this was the best story in the last 24 hours...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:23 - ID#335190)
Eldorado @ 15:17
You got "IT" *Newspeak*
Mushrooms-R-Us: Feed us horse shit, and keep us in the dark.
Take Care

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:25 - ID#350179)
Greenspan on US Economy in Vienna
Apologies if previously posted. - is this old news?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:28 - ID#229277)
rube: I agree on all points.
We are seeing distress gold sales outside the US to cover short term obligations. Debt-backed currencies, including the dollar ( especially the dollar? ) may not hold value even in a deflationary environment. Inflation only increases gold prices when all other influences are stable. However, instability/chaos are a forcing function on gold. Gold is home to all flight capital. Thx for your note.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:30 - ID#227290)
Hut & XAU
I've been thinking about this situation and neither scenario looks good. ( But that doesn't mean tomorrow will be like today. )
First, maybe the gold stocks can't rally even though gold has just jumped because they are selling off in sympathy with the broader stock market. If so, then that's not very rosy for the future.

Second, maybe they are telling us, as the XAU sometimes does, that the move in gold is phony and they aren't buying it. If so, then that's not too good, either.

Third, maybe they're just making us sweat and tomorrow they will far outpace gold to the upside. it's happened before.

Does anyone else have a scenario?

The Preacher

PS -- I like the strength in both gold and silver at day's end. I wouldn't be too comfortable going into tomorrow's trading session on the short side.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:31 - ID#373284)
Good ol' Boy - I ain't no rooster.
And you are right it better be a pretty big kitchen. And, I understand that mining is no easy task. Namaste'

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:32 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1--you have a way with words!
"... in the meltdown. Paper won't even waste its time with a burn, it will go right to ash."
The simple eloquence causes my cheeks to be streaked with wetness...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:34 - ID#373284)
6PAK - I am a country of one and living as a
tolerant barbarian. By the way, which I would if I could afford it. I agree with your post. Namaste'

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:36 - ID#27341)
DOW in free fall

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:38 - ID#212323)
Excerpt from MM's article
"Reporters are barred from the yearly meetings of the IMC, made up of
about 80 chairmen and chief executives of the world's largest banks, and
the bankers are asked not to speak on the record about what they hear
during the sessions."

I find this chilling...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:39 - ID#289357)

Davidson and Rees-Mogg ( I think it was in The Great Reckoning ) quoted a study of gold over 300 years, in inflationary and deflationary environments. Their statement was that in a deflation, the price of gold IN REAL TERMS exceeded the previous cycle inflationary high by something like 4.5%.

Someone who has a copy of The Great Reckoning might want to check my memory of the above statement. But if it is true, the price of gold would ultimately reach something like $1500 - $2000/oz, considering the inflation which has been in effect since gold reached its peak in 1979 or 1980.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:40 - ID#347235)
Eldorado @ The Scene
Looks to me like you & The Author read too much Oral Robert,John Hagee and Pat Robertson.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:42 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Retired soldier -- Who are they?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:45 - ID#212323)
What is new here?
Long live the king?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:46 - ID#254269)
London Share market bracing for "rogue " trading;

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:49 - ID#254269)
Silverbaron; ECM and LEg; thanks for your response. Last prices were ECM .50
and LEG .17 ( both aussie dollars ) , so they are right at a ratio of 3 to 1. The aussie market for this type of stock is very thin so they both fall into the speculative category.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:54 - ID#288186)
Latest Comex Warehouse Stats
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 3


Gold 1,090,679 + 13,519 troy ounces

Silver 89,171,002 - 973,546 troy ounces

Copper 80,783 - 1,446 short tons

N/A= Not available.


It's interesting that the Silver stock totals are starting to

deplete by roughly 900k ( +/- ) the last few trading days. I think

yesterday was a +600k day but before that we had some fairly

substantial subtractions. We're under 90 million on totals again!

This reminds of the time frame prior to and after the famous

Buffett anouncement. Are these silver stocks being transfered out

again like before? Hmmmmmmmmmmm.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:56 - ID#257148)
Is there an echo around here?
Well over a year since I first posted this, I think it stands repeating:

Date: Wed Apr 30 1997 23:34 aurator ( jesthefaxmon ) :

this is a table reproduced from Dr Roy Jastram's *The Golden Constant*.
Apologies if this look wierd, I've tried before to get tables here but
am defeated by Macintosh to Windows translators. The table should be
in 7 columns but technical gremlins...

Purchasing Power of Silver & Gold in Inflationary cf Deflationary Times

Years CMdty Price % Silver% Gold %
1623-1658 51 -34 -34
1675-1695 27 -13 -21
1702-1723 25 -18 -22
1752-1776 27 -22 -21
1792-1813 92 -33 -27
1897-1920 305 -61 -67
1933-1979 2149 241 27

Years Price % Silver % Gold %
1658-1669 -21 27 42
1813-1851 -51 69 70
1873-1896 -45 -6 82
1920-1933 -69 32 251

"Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation.

While the study ( 1979 from memory ) is not without limitations, it
does show that you're crazy to hold gold during inflation, and crazy not to hold it during deflation.

Avoid experts who say gold is a good hedge against inflation.

Auroelf; Your 22:39 of april 29 "Trouble with charts is we see what
we believe" is the most honest recognition I've yet seen on kitco on
the limitations of any kind of TA.
How about: I wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't believed it.
Or :
How do you know that what you know is not what you believe?
Anyone care to guess on which side of his tunic the village idiot will
dribble tomorrow??

Great Site, highly addictive, despite my antipodean contrariness.
Thank you all for your generous input.

A blast from the past, ol

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:56 - ID#373284)
I am but a tiny country, there is no formal military here. Just a tolerant barbarian who is capable of throwing a rock straight and true. New World Order, HA! I say to them even the words of this lowly one will get into the hydraulic fluid of their worldwide machinery and rust it from the inside out. In fact other tolerant barbarians are inside already.

If memory serves me right and it better, I am right handed. Those idiots have still not figured out the meek shall inherit the earth. And if they keep up the stupidity of their ways, well, Mankind may not be the meek meant in that heralded comment which rumbled from the Heavens. Others on Earth have ears as well.

So a hearty Namaste to ya my FRIEND.

Now, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmwhere is that spoon, I have a silver mine/his/hers/ours to dig!!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:58 - ID#254269)
Russia not seeking G7 aid;

(Wed Jun 03 1998 15:59 - ID#27341)
The PPT did very well

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:00 - ID#288186)
Trying again. Latest Comex Warehouse Stats...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 3

Gold 1,090,679 + 13,519 troy ounces
Silver 89,171,002 - 973,546 troy ounces
Copper 80,783 - 1,446 short tons

N/A= Not available.
It appears that the silver stocks are starting to deplete by
900k ( +/- ) the last few days. Although yesterday had added some
to the totals, I think the days prior were subtraction days!
We're below 90 million once again!

This reminds me of the time frame prior to and after the famous
"Buffett" announcement. Are these stock being transfered out by
another big buyer? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:01 - ID#212323)
Last half-hour was a tough one on the Street.
As yet, this has been a fairly steady and gentle wake-up call to all the sleepy investors out there. The only fundamentals driving this market are greed and stupidity.

got value?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:02 - ID#43349)
No,no, let's not have any hoping for tomorrow. We woulg
rather have you continue to expect that G & S will be
down tomorrow.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:04 - ID#347235)
Some of the flakier televangelists, unuf said.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:06 - ID#289357)

Ah, yes - Jastrow. The name rings a bell - he must have been the researcher who the 'Great Reckoning' lads were talking about.

Do you know if there has ever been a serious deflation in a period where all the wealth was in terms of paper ( e.g. no REAL money ) ?


(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:07 - ID#373284)
aurator- re: deflation
We should make that once a day reading here at Kitco. Namaste'

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:11 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1--It is good to see you posting again with regularity
...although we had the plumber standing by just in case...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:12 - ID#254269)
Coincidence ? Silver down 900K ozs. on Comex and Berkshire Hathaway hits
record high of $76,000 per share ? As per posts here earlier today.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:16 - ID#257148)
What's that shadow on yon horizon?

The Great Reckoning Index does not refer to Jastram.
A very difficult question you posed, trouble is your statement "where all the wealth was in terms of paper ( e.g. no REAL money ) ?" Perhaps should read "wealth-exchange was in terms of paper" because I think that is what the Jastram research is actually saying. When there is deflation, the only wealth is in precious, and precious has always been held from time immemorial. Even if paper is being traded as valuable at the same time , gold will shine when paper burns.

If one holds only paper when paper burns, perhaps the 4 horsemen are on the horizon.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:18 - ID#431263)
A/D, Volume, New highs/lows, tick, arms index, McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index--IT ALL HAS TURNED EXTREMELY BEARISH! Only thing that still looks good is T-Bond and Utes--a flight to safety! Everything points to LOWER PRICES FOR EQUITIES AHEAD! 8300 at a minimum and if earnings are as bad as what I think, MUCH, MUCH LOWER! DEFLATION AND RECESSION ( INVERTED YIELD CURVE ) ON THE HORIZON! SAVE YOUR POWDER! A GLOBAL LIQUIDITY CRISIS WILL BE THE RESULT! PPT OR NO PPT!

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:24 - ID#212323)
is that the sound of thundering hooves I'm hearing in the distance?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:30 - ID#431263)
Asia taking a huge bite out of 2nd Q profits! DOW TRANSPORTATION INDEX

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:31 - ID#254269)
Brazil Shares down 3.4% ;

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:32 - ID#212323)
Golden Cheesehead, or anyone else
I've never bothered to look into it before, but I find myself feeling a bit curious at the it the "tick" calculated on the markets, and what value is worthy of excitement ( or concern ) ?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:33 - ID#257148)
Perhaps you saw the reference to Jastram in Pierre Lassonde's most auracious "The Gold Book."?

off to support a gold-jones

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:34 - ID#431263)
GE faltering! Many high tech stocks on the verge of cracking 52 week lows!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:34 - ID#372180)
Aragorn III
No, I do beleive it's the growling of bears you hear.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:35 - ID#342376)
Kitco site shortcircuiting?
I want to purchase some Mounties but a password comes up. I guess I'll try the Kitco 1-800 number tomorrow. Stange events the last hour of trading, huh? DOW was in total free-fall for about 20 minutes.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:46 - ID#26793)
Does anyone have accurate gold and silver spot close prices? Bart is stuck at 13:00.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:49 - ID#212323)
My sources tell me GOLD at 295.70. Silver...what is silver, eh?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:51 - ID#212323)
Sorry Donald
That was June gold. My sources have been disciplined accordingly.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:52 - ID#373403)
Aragorn III
Kitchen counter goldsmithing? I assume you are going to do some hammer work. Piercing and cuttout filligree might also be nice. As far as annealing, if you are working with .999 coins you might not need to anneal unless you are doing heavy duty hammering. Lets assume you are. Pure gold melts at about F1,945. 90% coinage melts at about F1,724. Annealing requires heating to a dull orange color for a minute or less, probably near F1,300 to F1,500. Your oven will not do it.

Order a tool catalog from:
Rio Grande 800-545-6566
Gesswein 800-243-4466

Get a mesh rack, hammers, an anvil, etc. ( $250 )

Also get an oxygen tank with regulator and propane with regulator. Attach a casting torch and you are all set up. ( $500 )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:52 - ID#20137)
Anyone been watching the Bovespa lately...
Brazil, the gateway to Latin America and Mexico has been doing quite poorly. It can't seem to stay on a upward trend, it can't hold above 9,xxx. Funds may be looking to move from the Americas to other portions of the world???? Dow is not looking like it is going to be able to support its neighbors, rather it is starting to be a drag on them.

What is Mexico going to do with a regional market in a downtrend??? Will folks be eager to funnel money into Mexico as markets fall??? Will the usdollar rein supreme while Wall Street stumbles??? Looks like tough times ahead for the Americas.



Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 4:20PM 9856 -295 -2.90%
Canada TSE 300 Composite ^TSE 4:46PM 7493.20 -40.81 -0.54%
Chile IGPA ^IGPA 4:46PM 4260.56 +20.91 +0.49%
Mexico IPC Index ^MXX 4:27PM 4455.240 -24.770 -0.55%
Peru Lima General ^IGRA 3:00PM 1784.63 -5.81 -0.32%
United States S&P 500 ^SPX 4:46PM 1082.73 -10.49 -0.96%
Venezuela IBC ^IBC 2:26PM 5975.98 -19.57 -0.33%

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:52 - ID#288186)
Closing Gold/Silver prices...
August Comex Gold closed @ 295.30
July Comex Silver closed @ 5.178
Per my post earlier, Silver Comex warehouse stocks are back below
90 million ounces again! This seems very significant to me!!

Rising Sun
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:54 - ID#411331)
Futures link

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:55 - ID#390415)
Nice numbers
It is nice to see gold surge at the end of the day, at a time when "flight" investing may be taking place.

This may be the start of a big runup.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:55 - ID#43349)
@Aragorn III
I think that's the sound of a great herd of bulls leaving
Wall Street.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 16:59 - ID#212323)
Oog, too much you say--my kitchen is too small and frail. I guess I must remain content to simply hit it with a rock.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:01 - ID#212323)
How very considerate of those bulls to meet aurator's four horsemen halfway!

Mr. Mick
(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:15 - ID#345321)
Mining News re: Peruvian mines
Wednesday June 3, 4:37 pm Eastern Time
Yanacocha gold ruling definitive-Peru court source

By Marco Aquino

LIMA, June 3 ( Reuters ) - A Peruvian court source said Wednesday a ruling -- that has been made
but not announced -- in a dispute over a stake in a top gold mine was definitive, meaning another
judge would not be needed to decide the case.

The judiciary will make public Thursday or later the decision in an appeal case brought by France's
Bureau de Recherches Geoligiques et Mineres ( BRGM ) and Australia's Normandy Mining Corp.
Ltd ( NDY.AX ) against Canada's Newmont ( NEM - news ) and Peru's Buenaventura ( BUEt.LM ) ,
the source added.

Supreme Court Judge Javier Beltran said last Friday he has decided in the case, which involves a
disputed 24.7 percent stake in Yanacocha, Latin America's largest gold mine.

Investors assumed Newmont and Buenaventura won the case and bought, in particular, the Peruvian
miner's stock Friday, brokers said. But with no announcement of the decision, buying has calmed
and most bolsa players have decided to wait for the official news before risking more money, they

After six other Supreme Court judges split a decision three votes to three, Beltran was called in to
issue a ruling.

According to analysts following the case, he had three options:

- vote with the three judges who upheld the BRGM/Normandy appeal;

- vote with the other three who decided in favor of Buenaventura/Newmont;

- make a separate ruling in favor of either party but base that decision on a different legal issue.

This last option would create a three-three-one overall vote and lead to yet another judge being
called to try to break the deadlock.

The court source, however, said Beltran's ruling was a tie- breaker and meant one of the parties had
definitely won.

He said if Beltran had taken the third option and made a separate decision, then the parties would
have been notified immediately.

This week's delay in the announcement showed normal court procedural rules were being followed
to notify the firms of a definitive ruling, he added.

``It is a definitive ruling that closes the case,'' the source said.

He added he did not know which party won the case.

The legal wrangling began when BRGM, the original holder of the stake in the increasingly
productive Yanacocha, tried to transfer the shares to Normandy.

Buenaventura and Newmont contested the transfer, arguing they had rights of first refusal.

If Beltran breaks the tie and votes in favor of Buenaventura and Newmont, it is possible the case is
still not over.

BRGM and Normandy may be able to continue fighting for the stake in foreign courts, according to
the firms.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:23 - ID#350179)
Answers to yesterday's quiz
1. If you cannot - in the long run - tell everyone what you have been doing, your doing has been worthless.

Erwin Schrdinger

2. Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be the criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached.

Werner Heisenberg

3. Most of the fundamental ideas of science are essentially simple, and may, as a rule, be expressed in a language comprehensible to everyone.

Albert Einstein

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:25 - ID#254269)
US Stock Funds see $850 Million outflow;

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:25 - ID#373403)
IMC Vienna Conference
"The meeting concentrated mostly on what the Euro will mean for the U.S.," said Ricardo Sergio de Oliveira, executive director of the Banco do Brazil. "It also concentrated on the impact of the Asian crisis on prices in general. There are a lot of issues for the IMC to take care of. The major one at the moment is the influence of Russia because this crisis not just affects Europe, it affects the U.S."

It's funny how we all saw this coming and that the governing bodies seem to be behind the curve on the Euro. Management by disaster seems to be more accurate than the general consensus that the White House, Congress, and the Fed are responsible for our current state of utopia.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:32 - ID#43349)
I wonder what that guy meant when he said:
"The major one at the moment is the influence of Russia
because this crisis not just affects Europe, it affects
the U.S."
Does that mean it's more important if it affects the US
than if it affects the rest of the world?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:34 - ID#316256)
Dow theory
I tend to be a follower of the DOW theory, in that a major direction change in the DOW needs to be confirmed by the Transportation Index. I've noticed on several days where there was apparent PPT participation that the PPT is working the transports, trying to keep them up. Today was another indication of this. Is the PPT an adherent to the DOW theory? Has anyone else noticed this? Comments invited.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:35 - ID#253228)
Gold bear has a sore throat, but will growl again after a few zinc lozengers
S&P500 fell today right on schedule. Homestake two days behind which will be caught up after this little two/three day countertrend rally.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 17:55 - ID#317193)
No offense intended but have you ever considered that you might, just might, be wrong and cannot really predict the future?

Printed out your charts and reset my stops on Dec. gold contracts. Time will tell.


Tyler Rose
(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:00 - ID#373164)
For those who are interested, ANOTHER! was updated June 2 @

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:00 - ID#288369)
@Yea! to the interesting chromatic tones of Harmony today.....
Raised fifths can awaken the ears, eh? Ummm you like?.....Now how about a raised ninth on top of that? hmmmmmmm...nice. ohmy. Did any other kitcoites receive a "buttload" ( eb ) of hgmcy proxy statements today? Vote Republican, eh?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:01 - ID#307271)
Appreciate your posts. Your opinions seem to reflect a non-herd insight that might seem foreign to some. Careful, they're on your 6. Keep posting. Thanks.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:07 - ID#347235)
Who cares? Until he identifies himself I consider him a fraud.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:08 - ID#412286)
You accurately reflect history. My four year old could have drawn your CONTINUATION chart.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:10 - ID#373403)
Testimony of Governor Laurence H. Meyer
Before the Committee on the Judiciary, U.S. House of Representatives
June 3, 1998

What I find most interesting is that the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which would be the major arguement against the recent bank merger mania was NEVER MENTIONED in his testimony! The Citicorp/Travelers merger would require it's repeal!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:12 - ID#412286)
When will you exceed Mr. Gates in wealth GENIUS. My four old can draw a continuation chart as good as yours. Right on Schedule HA

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:13 - ID#253228)
I've considered it many times, and not only that I have been wrong many times in the details, but I have mostly stood by the general idea that it is mathematically possible to identify forces in motion and project them into the future.

For the first five years or so that I worked on the idea I had some serious reservations about my own capacity to judge rality. I really wondered why I would take on such a wild project and why I did not just stop. At this point I have had enough success to justify all the effort that I have expended.

Actually people predict the future all the time with a lot less scientific means than I employ. Where the seasons regularly change people make plans based on the predictions of weather. Generally in the midwest we don't plant corn in December. What I am doing is just identifying many, many seasons that are reflected in the price movement of markets and then figuring when it is going to be hot or cold.

The idea was debated in the 1800's by statisticians, but they did not have the capacity to do the calculations. I am just testing their theories. If the charts I have posted turn out to be a close approximation of the future then it will not have been chance. If they turn out to miss substantially, then either the theory is bad or I have made some mistake in the application of the theory. My experience tells me I am in the ballpark and am batting better than most.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:14 - ID#242325)
JP: you have said for many months thast gold would soar if deflationary forces accelerated. Well deflationary forces have accelerated, but gold has tanked again. Deflation will only be bullish for gold if it gets so bad that the banking system is threatened and/or the powers that start to reflate in a big way. But by then AU probably would be much lower than it is today. The overwhelming majority of gold analysts qill tell you that deflation is bearish for POG and has been big factor behind recent price weakness.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:14 - ID#368244)
@ Studio

Will the Monte Leon hotel in New Orleans be satisfactory for our millonaires party . Gold and Cliton, stew only a GOLDBUG can love.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:15 - ID#20748)
Jerry Favors : Excerpted from the latest report
"If the Dow can reach new highs over the next 2 to 3 weeks it will confirm that no final top is likely before late July at the earliest.
But the Dow must reach a new closing high above 9211.84,a new print high of 9262 and a new intraday high above 9312 to confirm that count. If we fail to exceed all 3 of those levels the odds are we have already seen a final top."

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:16 - ID#307271)
As famous football coach Corso is oft heard to say, "Not so fast my friend !" Could you please put a vernier on this time machine of yours... At least put a grid on your plot and zoom in on the coming week day-by-day. Most of us aren't fond of the prospect of losing 90% of our egg money by being long gold issues. Predicting the S&P falloff is one thing, but at least let us examine your exact projection for a few days. OK? Shell Game or Reality, that is the question. Comments?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:22 - ID#57232)
Appreciate your posts
Jeil: I find your posts interesting. Over the last two months or so, just how much has that fall 98 dip in the sp-500 risen? What I am getting at is that I've noticed that as time progresses, the market dip you predict is progressively lessening. That trend may be giving you a clue where you r model is less predictive. Does your gold stock model show that pattern too, or is it more statinary with time?

I am fascinated with your work -- but you can understand my scepticism.

I don't know what is in store for us. Certainly your prediction is one of several possibilities. I think you will find out that the 'flight to safety' wild card may change the rules somewhat -- all of that money from South America and other places may still be enough to keep the US markets going. Did you see that turnup at the end of today?

My guess is the serial devaluation model is a useful guidline, with deflation and 'flight to saftey' being bullish for the US markets. Weakening earnings are clearly not bullish. All depends on just how paniced those foreign investors really are.

It seems to me the gold may not really be on the shopping list until their is only one weak chair remaining -- the US markets. We still must have another SEAsia devaluation, a South America surprise ( coming up ) , and a European meltdown, IMHO, before the US markets are history.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:24 - ID#288369)
@Isure.....How you do, mon?
Very nice choice!!!!! Bill o' Fare......brennan's brunch....dinner @ Court of Two Sisters or maybe...Antoine's.....yes, for new and ol' times sakes...MILLIONAIRES ( I sure do like the sound of that word, yes sir! )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:27 - ID#317193)
Thank you most kindly for your response. It was reasoned and cogent. We may disagree on the direction of gold but such is no cause to ignore the views of others.

Thank you, again, for the response. My stops are close!


(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:27 - ID#246224)
Alberich's 09:16 bears reposting
Date: Wed Jun 03 1998 09:16
ALBERICH__A ( Y2K: John A. Koskinen, the Administration's Point Man on the Date Problem ) ID#212197:
Copyright  1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
....said to a friend on mine in a personal discussion very recently:
"If only one percent of people pull out their money from the banks or pull out from the stock market, we'll have a major financial crisis."

The time frame in which this pull out could happen was meant as a period of one or two months, basically if only one percent of people start to enter panic mode.

If one percent of people acting in pull out mode within one month can trigger a financial crisis, my best guess is, it will happen in half a year from now latest.

This statement is worth to be analyzed in more detail. Koskinen must be talking about the M1. Can realistically a change in M1 trigger a financial crisis ? Probably the time frame is most important. Within one week the pull out from stocks can do it, I think.

Cool headed financial analysts are in demand. The question is: what percentage of people in what period of time need to pull out from either the stock market or withdraw their cash from banks in order to trigger a major financial crisis ?

Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:28 - ID#242325)
Kaplan growing more bullish. Open interest climbing along with prices.

Gold Mining Outlook-An Investor1 Featured Newsletter

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:28 - ID#411331)
@all: Gold lease rates are still at 1.21%. Until I see that rise, I have to believe that
the gold carry trade will continue and the gold bear will still be on.
( unless AG lowers interest rates ) He might do that to try to head off a crash, and take the heat off Japan!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:30 - ID#43460)
More grist for the y2k mill
How about one more y2k doomsday prediction? I for one am expectantly waiting for the 'gummint' to shut down, at least the extraconstitutional 'administrative' branch. ( FEMA or no FEMA, Mozel. ) ( 8-^] )

forwarded material:


The federal government is woefully unprepared for the year 2000.
A Congressional subcommittee studying agencies' efforts to
overhaul their computer systems so they will continue to operate
on January 1, 2000, has given the government an overall "F" on

o Although the Social Security Administration was awarded a
grade of A+ -- the only agency to rate that high -- the
Environmental Protection Agency, the the departments of
State, Health and Human Services, Energy, Transportation
and the Agency for International Development received an
"F" rating.

o Agriculture, Defense, Justice and Education were handed
"D" grades.

o Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Kelley Jr. estimates
the costs of repairs will exceed $50 billion.

o At the current pace, only 62 percent of all the federal
government's computers will be certified as ready to begin
final testing by a March 1999 deadline, the subcommittee

Experts warn the Federal Aviation Administration is so far behind
it may need to ground significant numbers of airplanes as the
year 2000 dawns. Observers of the international scene are
predicting major problems with the computers of both governments
and industries.

Peter deJager, an international consultant, is calling on G-8
leaders "to act like we're going to war."

Source: M.J. Zuckerman, "Government Earns an 'F' For Fixing Year
2000 Woes," USA Today, June 3, 1998.

For more on Government Mismanagement

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:32 - ID#373284)
Old Gold
Deflation is just starting to arrive. Gold will rise based on fear and on the fact the dollar begins to get hammered. As to what most believe, I am always in the other camp. Namaste'

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:33 - ID#26793)
@Old Gold
When we speak of deflation and gold I think you have to make the distinction between price and purchasing power. During a deflation gold could be level or drop in dollar price while soaring in purchasing power.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:34 - ID#253228)
If the projections I show turn out to be substantially incorrect, it will not be from a deliberate attempt on my part to deceive, but rather my own failure to have accurately perceived reality.

Since this is a discussion group relating to gold, I am discussing my attempts at finding the combination to the vault. I am not making any recommendations to anyone. I am short Homestake Mines and have some July 10 puts and will suffer inversly to many of you should you be correct and I wrong.

My work is not fine enough to predict each day exactly so I deliberately did not stretch out the plot so that each day could be seen individually. As to grids, I will put some on the next set of charts I put up. I am not trading the S&P500 now so I gave more information on it. I did not extend the chart on Homestake all that far into the future because I will want to exit my short position and go long at a point that is unknown to anyone but myself. The reason should be obvious.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:35 - ID#373284)
The Coward Erects trip to China is based soley on his need to get closer to his
money as his career ends. In 10 years he will be reading bad poetry to old ladies clubs trying to go to work when they yawn.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:38 - ID#298259)
Kaplan also upgraded outlook as of today...
Wednesday, June 3, 1998: The overall current outlook has climbed again from MODERATELY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH.

One can only pray...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:38 - ID#43349)
I find Jeil's projections to be fascinating.
Theoretically a measurable variables future movements
are a function of all the factors that have affected
it in the past plus unforseen events that might occur
in the future. Many of the factors are cyclical in
nature such as ones affected by the well known 4 year
political cycle or the 12 month seasonal cycle plus
hundreds of others I couldn't even begin to guess
at. Since these functions can be plotted as a function
of time, one would expect that a proper analysis of
the variables movement to a proper fineness of detail
and length of time could yield an approximating
function for discounting the effect of all cyclical
and non-random factors acting over that same time

In other words, you don't have to know anything about
the movement of the sun and the moon in order to
calculate the movement of the tides.

For a suitably short period of extrapolation into the
future the derived chart can be useful in prognostication.
However, inaccuracies of calculation and data collection
will lead to greater and greater divergence over time.
One can continually recalculate the cutve as one moves
along in time, but its like driving into the fog. You
can continually only see a short distance ahead.

And of course there is the unexpected random event.
In just the same way that all bets are off in calculating
the tide if an asteroid hits in mid Pacific, so are all
bets off if some completely unforseen political event
should happen.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:46 - ID#255217)
I hope your'e right. For several weeks now, I have been "sensing" a weakening in the Dow. A friend of mine in the market has been singing the blues about his stocks. I know you have been around a long time ( no offense ) , and I respect your opinion.

My sense is that we may really be seeing the beginning of the turn at long last. But the question in my mind is whether the turn will be be abrupt and violent or more of a long, lazy roll over to the downside that will accelerate with time with the gradual dawning that we have seen the high. I tend to believe the latter. And there will be rallys and reversals to confute and confuse all. The ultimate awareness to all that a true bear market is in progress may take many months. It may well be fascinating to watch. That will depend on your point of view, I suppose.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:49 - ID#43460)
themissinglink + AragornIII there is such a thing as gold clay you know.
Steve, you probably already know about it but I doubt Aragorn does. Rio Grande sells gold clay ( proprietary mixture of gold dust and organic filler ) that you can model just like play dough, then heat in your $400 burnout oven until it sets. Costed about 4x spot the last time I looked. Then there is silver clay for cheapskates. No kidding. Never tried it, but am waiting to see somebody elses results. IMHO

Tools are expensive. IMHO
(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:50 - ID#434108)
U.S. Dollar backing & convertibility, just announced in Emergency Executive Order, 6/3/98.
""The President has concurred: the need for U.S. Dollar convertibility, and backing, is paramount. In order to head-off a looming deflationary crisis, and world-wide depression, the President has -- today, June 3rd, 1998 -- just released - 'National Emergency Executive Order #69'. In part, it reads as follows: "In exchange for all current U.S. currency, known as U.S. Dollars - i.e. 'This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private' - these paper dollars are now 'payable to the bearer on demand' ( at any Federal Reserve Bank ) in exchange for ...... as many units of VIAGRA as the bearer can bear."

( This Emergency Executive Order #69 released to the Press Corps, by the President's Deputy Assisstant's Deputy, at 2000 hrs., GMT. ) ""
(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:52 - ID#434108)
U.S. Dollar backing & convertibility, just announced in Emergency Executive Order, 6/3/98.
""The President has concurred: the need for U.S. Dollar convertibility, and backing, is paramount. In order to head-off a looming deflationary crisis, and world-wide depression, the President has -- today, June 3rd, 1998 -- just released - 'National Emergency Executive Order #69'. In part, it reads as follows: "In exchange for all current U.S. currency, known as U.S. Dollars - i.e. 'This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private' - these paper dollars are now 'payable to the bearer on demand' ( at any Federal Reserve Bank ) in exchange for ...... as many units of VIAGRA as the bearer can bear."

( This Emergency Executive Order #69 released to the Press Corps, by the President's Deputy Assisstant's Deputy, at 2000 hrs., GMT. ) ""
(Wed Jun 03 1998 18:54 - ID#434108)
U.S. Dollar backing & convertibility, just announced in Emergency Executive Order, 6/3/98.
""The President has concurred: the need for U.S. Dollar convertibility, and backing, is paramount. In order to head-off a looming deflationary crisis, and world-wide depression, the President has -- today, June 3rd, 1998 -- just released - 'National Emergency Executive Order #69'. In part, it reads as follows: "In exchange for all current U.S. currency, known as U.S. Dollars - i.e. 'This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private' - these paper dollars are now 'payable to the bearer on demand' ( at any Federal Reserve Bank ) in exchange for ...... as many units of VIAGRA as the bearer can bear."

( This Emergency Executive Order #69 released to the Press Corps, by the President's Deputy Assisstant's Deputy, at 2000 hrs., GMT. ) ""

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:16 - ID#401183)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:18 - ID#401183)
Can't get to ANOTHER'S Comments via USA GOLD URL!

What gives?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:22 - ID#373284)
So you think the Erect Branch of government will have electricity.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:31 - ID#253228)
Back in the 1940's when my wife was a child her father bought her an 8mm file of Might Mouse. One of the scenes is his attact of a villan flying an airplane and as the attack ensues, the villan's airplane starts to fall apart. He grabs one piece and puts it back in place and the another peice falls away so he grabs it. In short time his arms are all twisted up trying to hold the different pieces of the plane together.

I feel like that sometimes working with my model. If I were to not add new data points as time passed, and not look for previously unidentified oscillations, the projection would modify itself. This is because I, through testing, develop a list of statistically significant oscillations. In the unfiltered data the measure of each of these is approximate. I subtract from the unfiltered data these more easily identified oscillations so that I can find others that were not so easy to initially see. This creates a problem because the process or removing something only approximately identified allows for the possibility of distorting the remaining data. After I develop an initial list I subtract all but the first identified oscillation from the data and remeasure the oscillation I am retesting. It measures a little different now. I repeat the process with the next osciallation on the list and it measures a little different. Each time these get subtracted from the data something different is being subracted so it affects what is left. The list is up to over 400 oscillations and each one is retested thousands of times in a continuous loop of removing all but one, reidentifying its length, phase and amplitude, so the result is always slightly changing itself.

Add to that the addition of new data points and the result gets changed.

Add to that my deliberate intervention to periodically look for previously unidentified oscillations or to remove oscillations that no longer test sufficiently high, and you have further change. I usually tamper with the model in this way if I see it getting too far from reality.

As to the world problems you identify, I can only say that I am not unaware of them, but I believe that everything that is happing is driven by the same forces that are driving theses markets I am analyzing. I do not have sufficient knowledge of all the cause and effect relationships to determine by brute force the net result that all this will have on the gold market, so I only rely on my model and a very little guestimating with what I understand of the Elliott Wave idea.

All this being said, I can tell you that my past experience is that the model works for a while then gets a little off. Last fall I had a near perfect trade as a result when Homestake made it's big move down. I then started missing the mark. I started looking for the problem and made some what I considered improvements in my programs. The result is what I have now and I am very encouraged. I never before was able to get the S&P500 to match in the past as close as I now have it. Time will tell. I just hope I am young enough to enjoy the fruits of my labor when the payoff comes.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:43 - ID#307271)
Thanks for the timely and astute retort. Your polynomial analysis continues to fascinate. As previously stated, this type analysis holds personal interest for me and my work, so please don't take offense at my query. No-one expects you to actually predict the future as this is the signature and fingerprint of only the Almighty. However, an assessment of the "range of efficacy" is in order; therefore, if possible, a pilot-study-foray would add credence to your result. In other words, if you show how far out your model can mimic the market, it will then become a useful tool for others, and as such, worth a great deal to your descendants. I have never owned HM, but its cyclicity certainly makes it a traders banana, and it mirrors some of the Gold Issues. This then makes any disease state in HM pathognomic of the group but analysis of another issue must be proven. Please continue unabated and without my interference.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:48 - ID#347172)
Unable to get to their URL for 3 days. I notified them, and they emailed back that it might be my computer. The previous post on this problem eliminated that possibility.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:50 - ID#242325)
TOLERANTL: Agree that gold will begin to soar when the dollar gets hammered. But that is inflstionary, not deflationary.

Gold's rally today may reflect a report from Goldman Sachs that the G7 may soon move to strenghten the yen. We have heard this kind of talk before. To no or little avail. Time will tell if they are serious. If Gary Schilling is right about a Chinese devaluation and yen dropping to 180 to the dollar, Disney probably will be right about $250-260 gold.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:50 - ID#176200)
tolerant..I love your sense of humor
You bring joy and hope to my life everyday! Thanks!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:53 - ID#31867)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:53 - ID#432157)
Boy is it good to get the spot back THANKYOU BART

Why does it take so long to load ??????

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:56 - ID#431263)
Good to hear from you! I agree with your opinion that the current correction in the major averages will be characterized by gradual deterioration over many months--it will be a real "Chinese torture" : ) , pun intended! But when the Dow finally cracks 7300 on the downside, I believe there will be a massive mutual fund panic that may see the DOW plunge several thousand points in a day or two and lead to a SHORT TERM CAPITUALTION, followed by a major relief rally, followed by many months of more Chinese torture as we back and fill, looking for a major bottom ( much like the current bear market in gold! ) Y2K, deflationary global depression, Asia, BC, cyber and nuclear terrorism, advent of Euro as new world reserve currency, plunging dollar and economic protectionism will keep these markets at bay well into the new millennium. AG's departure next April will be the final straw and will signal to the world the end of the Pax Americana and the deification of the US Dollar! Only GOLD will bring about a resurgence in fiscal and monetary responsibility AFTER THE COLLAPSE!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:57 - ID#248180)
Steve Hanke's views
Wednesday June 3, 3:15 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Asia crisis may yet hit US stocks -Hanke
By Osman Senkul
ISTANBUL, June 3 ( Reuters ) - Steve Hanke, a former adviser to former Indonesian President Suharto, said on Wednesday the full impact of the Asian crisis was yet to be felt and warned it could still hit U.S. stock and bond markets.

Hanke urged investors to stay in cash and out of U.S. equities and emerging markets while financial uncertainty persists.

``The main impact from the Asian crisis has not been felt yet,'' he told Reuters in an interview. ``I think the next big victim will become the bond market and Wall Street, which will cause further problems in the emerging markets.''

The Johns Hopkins University professor said the crisis would disrupt trade between the United States and Asia, cutting U.S. exports and boosting its imports from the region.

``The combination of exporting less and importing more will put a squeeze on profits of American companies and lower their earnings,'' he said on the sidelines of a two-day conference on the Turkish economy in Istanbul.

``I think their earnings will come much lower than market analysts have forecast. I think ( earnings growth ) will be between zero and five percent.''

``If interest rates in the U.S. remain roughly the same and earnings increases will range from zero to five percent, this means that price/earnings ratios on stocks have to adjust downward.''

He predicted emerging markets would suffer more pain if the turmoil spread to Wall Street.

``I think the Southeast Asia problem will continue, because we have only had the first round of the problems in the region. There will be continued volatility there.''

Hanke named Russia and Brazil as two major emerging markets with vulnerable exchange rate systems.

``If they continue their problems with their exchange rates, this will send a second shock through the emerging markets,'' he said.

Hanke said he expected more market turmoil.

``So for the investor the main advice is in this kind of environment, cash is king.''

(Wed Jun 03 1998 19:57 - ID#253228)
Right on point. I like the statement about not needing to know about the sun and moon in order to predict tides. The cause of a particular oscillation in a markets may be unidentified, but that does not negate the fact that it can be used to judge future market movement.

Actually, because of much of the averaging done in the calculating process the very near future and the very far future are harder to get straight than the medium term. Part of this is because the little random events, because they occur randomly, will cancell each other out except in the very, very short term. They can throw you off for a few days. In the long run, it is difficult to analyze oscillations because you don't get enough repetitions of that oscillation to get a clear picture of it. You need a cycle to repeat more than 9 times to get a good measurement.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:00 - ID#57232)
Successive approximation
Jeil: You certainly do seem to be using a valid approach to developing your model. You also touched on something I also am beginning to understand. The news events and the actual market performance are linked, but not in the way one would expect. A cyclic market model can work for a time, irrespective of the news. But the news does alter the results. The human markets respond to positive and negative news differently at different times. For example, our US markets now appear unusually sensitive to bad news. A turning point is evident, but it is not clear whether the trend is down, or up. So in understanding the markets, you need to know the news, but you also need to know the cyclical patterns that indicate sensitivity to the news. You seem to have gone beyond this in your studies -- for the moment -- at least. The question, as gollum said, is just how long before an external event scrambles your carefully derived cycles. I am more interested in when you model fails to work, than in the fact that it is working now. For example, when you have optimized your model, how long does it typically work? Any thoughts?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:04 - ID#341189)
Prices on mirror site
Kitco's mirror has gold down .5 and silver even at 8:01

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:05 - ID#209265)
Is anyone familiar with an organization called Telegold ( hhtp:// ) ?

Has anyone tried them? They claim to make precious metals trading much easier.

Best wishes to all,
- Steve

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:06 - ID#298259)
HOOSIER & MOREX...USAGold's new URL...

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:07 - ID#228128)
NJ: On your Jerry Favors comment
He mentions a new print high. What does the term print mean. I though that it meant the same as close but from the context of his statement this is obviously not true.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:07 - ID#210235)
@Maybe what moved the market late today?
Monica's new lawyers are top-level criminal attorneys, pros at "let's make a deal". This just might have given the market the little push it needed. Starr is hot on the trail, and even the US public may know what's going on by next week.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:08 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

I have a long analysis tonight. When I'm finished I have to clean the kitchen so I wanted it to take as long as possible. So here goes; it gets better as it goes on.

Barrick rallied slightly early today and filled the gap left on Monday's downdraft. It quickly turned down after that and was one of the weak sisters in the XAU. OTOH, it looks like it wants to go lower. OTOH, the daily stochastics are very low ( 10-11 ) and it should bounce off this low level soon.
On the weekly chart, the stochastics are pointing straight down.

Agnico Eagle ( AEM ) looks like it has made a classic DCB from a sharp drop. It has rallied weakly for the past two days and hasn't gotten near its Friday close. It definitely has the look of a stock that wants to go lower. Whether or not it will, remains to be seen.

The Central Fund of Canada ( CEF ) gapped open to the upside today. Although it closed on the low of the day, which portends for a negative opening tomorrow, the gap is there now for the bears to try and close. This in itself is a role reversal from the past several weeks.

On Coeur d'Alene, it has been scraping bottom on its daily chart for about a month. A bullish non-confirmation has formed with its daily stochastics, given that the price has kept dropping but the stochastics have not. Today's upmove turned the daily stochastics positive and it looks like it has plenty of room to run.

ASA has rallied two days in a row and although it closed near its high today, it has still not made it into Monday's down gap.

Bema was up 1/8 today and closed on its high at 2.06. I find it hard to believe that yesterday's press release about Cerro Casale was all that positive for the stock. So it must have been something else. I remember that in the March rally, BGO took off from the starting blocks early and got the lead on everyone else. Is history repeating itself? Hope so.

DROOY has rallied for two days. It filled its Monday gap today and held. It has another gap to the upside it should take a shot at.

I'm going alphabetically now. The Dow-30 broke its April low in late May and quickly rebounded. Now, in early June, it's threatening to break its May low. It's got plenty of downside momentum Can anyone who know Dow Theory tell me what is going on in relation to Dow Theory and what has to happen for a Primary Bear Market to be signaled?

The Dollar Index fell from 102.25 to 98.50. It then retraced about 59% of that decline. It is now rolling over again. It fell through its 100-day MA today but is still above its 200-day MA. If I had to bet, I'd say that the next leg down is in progress. How this can not be good for gold, I don't know.
The low for the year is 97.65. Today's close is just above 100. Let's watch it and see if we get a new low.

Glamis is holding the line at 4.00 like a Stonewall. It doesn't want to give it up. It has built a great base. A higher gold price should get it hoppin'.

Greenstone and Golden Star make or come close to new lows every day now. I don't follow them too closely, but someone I know who knows a lot about it told me three months ago that Greenstone was the next big bust in the mining industry. He didn't say why and I didn't ask.

Hecla closed at 5.12. It has a gap that needs filling at 5.50. I bet it makes a run at it.

Like DROOY, Homestake filled Monday's gap and held it.

Do you remember in April when IBM gapped open from 113 and then ran to almost 128. Well, it's back down to the 113 gap now and look like it wants to close it. A gap open to the downside tomorrow will make the last 7 weeks of trading a huge, huge island reversal. Watch it. Stranger things have happened.

After a 94 cent drop on Monday, SWC is now positive for the week. There's a gap overhead, though. I'm not too hopeful. except it is giving you a better place to get out. Sorry. A big gap open would change my mind.

The Monday down gap on the TVX chart looks like an exhaustion gap that has already been filled. If so, then TVX is moving much higher. This is one of the most positive gold stock charts I see.

Silver is having trouble breaking out of its congestion area. But with the stochastics so oversold on both daily and weekly charts, I would bet against it. There's nothing on the weekly chart that shows a breakout is imminent. The daily chart looks more promising. Most of the silver stocks were up today, if that tells us anything.

Gold has erased the big down day on Monday in just two short days. It is now positive for the week. That's pretty impressive and suggests that Monday's action was exhaustive. Still, gold needs to clear the big 3 hurdles: back over its uptrend line, up over its 100-day MA, up and over its 200-day MA. That will be bullish enough for me.
On the daily chart, gold got some positive follow-through after Turnaround Tuesday. This is always a positive.

I hope you enjoyed this "stream of consciousness" analysis. Flipping through the charts and writing out my impressions.
Overall, I'm still holding out for a rally; gold to 300, silver to 5.73, and the XAU to 80 or so. We'll have to reassess everything at that time.

I like the negative action in the dollar. I like the positive action in BGO. go gold.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:09 - ID#34883)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:11 - ID#341189)
Your comments on markets are very astute. The "in favor" or "out of favor" element is a foundation for understanding the effect of news. Perhaps this is related to the more simple statement about investing that I've heard from oldtimers for over 40 years. The most important thing to know is the trend.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:12 - ID#225273)
Lo Siento Mucho
On silver, I meant to say: "I wouldn't be against it."
Not:"I would be against it."

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:14 - ID#210235)
@Falling yen raises risk of Chinese devaluation,
The tsunami of cheap goods from Asia has hit US shores.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:18 - ID#225273)
I like Telgold but I don't like Clinton
Telegold is closely tied to Adrian Day, who though many don't care for him, is a pretty honest and sincere guy.
Telegold lets you buy precious metals and they store them for you. It's one of the better and more reputable deals out there. Plus, it's Canadian, so a lot of Americans like it because it's technically, "offshore."

I don't like Clinton. I don't say much about politics, but I'm happy to see the walls caving in on the President. He is running a reign of terror in Washington with people dying who cross him and at least one woman in jail saying every other week that she's not talking because she knows that's her only chance to stay alive.
Starr's comments today show he knows he has the criminal goods on Clinton and he also knows it's his duty to bring him down.
Clinton's only hope now is to get an all black jury in Washington DC who care about nothing except his party affiliation and his reverence for Martin Luther King.

Don't get me started. I hope they put him under the jail.

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:21 - ID#57232)
One of the youth - child killers stabbed his mother with a knife
All: Is gun control going to prevent a killer from killing? Do we ban knives, baseball bats, and 2x4's? When will we learn that the problem lies in our homes and schools? As I recall one of our fellow Kitcoites grew up in the WWII or pre-WWII era, and everyone had guns then, but the violence we have now was absent. This whole problem reminds me of the book, 'The Ugly American', describing how ostensibly well-meaning Americans had lost touch with what people needed in underdeveloped countries, but the Russian ( communist ) counterpart just rolled up his sleeves and did what was needed. Our 'liberal' leadership -- or whatever you want to call it -- is seriously out of touch with reality. I suspect much of this has to do with the attempt to eliminate the cleansing cyclic effect of the business cycle. Just wait till all of those individuals who once lived on subsistence farms, and now live on welfare, have to fend for themselves when the money runs out. This is debt creation of a much more serious kind than financial debt. It is cultural/moral debt creation. In 1929, we had financial debt only to worry about.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:23 - ID#43349)
Market turns in the past have tended to begin with a slowing
for a few weeks as everyone waited to see what was going
to happen followed by a sharp break as everone suddenly
realized what was going to happen. For quite a few years
now an awful lot of people have bet their retirement on
equities and these people are not going to take a very long
chance on not having to spend their declining years in poverty.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:24 - ID#255217)
Gollum; sorry for the delayed response.
Right. Upon further REFLECTION, I now believe that G & S will be BACK DOWN tomorrow, perhaps even more than USUAL because TODAY they were UP when they shoulda been DOWN! How"s that? ( Not that I'm superstitious or anything. )

By the way, have you seen Frodo lately? And do you still have that little boat?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:25 - ID#31867)
I point to Asia as my example. Gold saved families in Asia as their currencies had near dealth experiences. As others were parting with their airplanes and other toys I am sure the people with gold were buying them.

This is what much larger holders of gold do. They wait for the mainstream of any era to believe in paper as money as the generations die off who KNOW MUCH BETTER and purchase what they need, be it a tract of land, a corporation a dead bank or even a country or two.

My reference to Donald above is that I KNOW he can make this point far better than me. He will be able to present what I just said in the language of economics whereas I cannot. Namaste'

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:25 - ID#295111)
Portugal Gold
Does any know if Portugal is done selling its gold?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:34 - ID#431263)
Billary and Hillary are toast! The world will be astonished at the extent of their political corruption, obstruction of justice and personal and professional hypocrisy! If he doesn't resign, he will most assuredly be impeached! Ken Starr HAS the goods and he WILL NOT back down until the world knows the full extent of the Clinton "legacy"! God help us!

Crystal Ball
(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:36 - ID#287367)
I apologize in advance if someone already posted this today

Agencies' 'Year 2000' Repair Pace Criticized

By Rajiv Chandrasekaran and Stephen Barr

Washington Post Staff Writers

Wednesday, June 3, 1998; Page A01

The federal government faces a significant risk of critical computer breakdowns
because some Cabinet departments are having trouble speeding up the pace of their
repair work on the Year 2000 glitch, according to internal documents obtained

The Treasury Department, for instance, has not fully determined whether a system
that processes government-wide financial data will work because of scheduling delays
involving a private-sector contractor. The Department of Health and Human Services
faces a shortage of skilled programmers to work on Medicare computers. And the
Defense Department has encountered technical risks that are thwarting quick repairs
to the software that plans Tomahawk missile missions.

Between Feb. 15 and May 15, the government finished fixing only 5 percent of its
"mission critical" systems, according to recent department reports submitted to the
Office of Management and Budget and obtained by The Washington Post. As of May 15,
more than 60 percent of the critical computer systems still had not been fully

The government's pace of repair work has alarmed many computer industry analysts and
has come under attack by Republicans on Capitol Hill. Rep. Stephen Horn ( R-Calif. ) ,
the chairman of a House subcommittee that has been examining the Clinton
administration's Year 2000 efforts, asserted yesterday that the current rate of
repairs means that more than 40 percent of the critical systems will not be fixed by
a March 1999 deadline set by the White House.

"We need to prioritize and recognize this as a major emergency," said Horn, who
cited the "disturbing slowdown of the government's rate of progress" in issuing a
report card yesterday that flunked the administration on its date-conversion work.

Technology specialists warn that government computer crashes could ripple through
society. Problems with Federal Aviation Administration computers could delay air
traffic, which, in turn, would disrupt freight, package and mail delivery, they say.
Any lengthy break in the flow of Medicare dollars would harm hospitals and
health-care providers, and malfunctions in sophisticated security systems could lock
workers out of sensitive government installations or thwart efforts to log on to

The Year 2000 problem stems from the use in many computer systems of a two-digit
dating system that assumes that 1 and 9 are the first two digits of the year.
Without specialized reprogramming, the systems will recognize "00" not as 2000 but
1900, a glitch that could cause the computers either to shut down or malfunction.

The administration's point man on the date problem, John A. Koskinen, disputed
Horn's estimate that 40 percent of critical systems won't be fixed on time, saying,
"The process is under control and agencies will be accelerating over the next
several months their rate of progress."

Koskinen, however, said he will begin attending monthly meetings at six agencies
that are not on pace to meet the White House deadline. Those six, according to an
OMB draft report circulated yesterday within the executive branch, are the
departments of Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services and
Transportation and the Agency for International Development.

The OMB report estimates the government's total cost of fixing the glitch to be $4.9
billion, a $200 million increase from an estimate issued in February.

The internal reports from Cabinet departments to the OMB, which were used to prepare
OMB's draft report, paint a largely optimistic picture of progress in battling the
date glitch. The Defense Department, for example, said that it has set up a Year
2000 "steering committee" that will meet monthly. The Pentagon also is setting up a
classified database that will contain progress reports for each of its 1,898 systems
that need to be repaired.

But the department reports also outline many of the daunting hurdles workers face in
renovating some of the government's antiquated -- but still crucial -- systems.

The military's Joint Maritime Command Information System, which controls some Navy
weapons systems, for instance, will miss the March 1999 deadline because "the number
of properly trained installation teams does not allow for an acceleration of the
implementation" of repairs. Another Navy system, one that maintains personnel data
on reservists, will be delayed because the "technical architecture is convoluted."

A major Defense Department telecommunications network, the Defense Switched Network,
won't make the deadline because data switches have not been maintained with "current
level of operating software," the department's report said.

Defense Department spokeswoman Susan Hansen said she could not speak to the progress
of specific system repairs, but she said the Pentagon intends to have much of its
work completed by the end of this year.

Several agencies said they have encountered problems finding programmers to assist
with the repair work, particularly for systems that were built with archaic software
code. In other cases, agencies said their programmers are being lured away by the
promise of higher salaries in the private sector.

"Apparently the competition is heating up among contractors for the available pool
of competent programmers, and the highest bidder seems to be winning out," the
Transportation Department said in its report.

HHS also lamented the "inability to attract new hires at government pay scales" to
work on computers for the Medicare program and the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. The Medicare program, which faces "multiple competing demands," may
delay reforms aimed at holding down health care costs in order to concentrate on
Year 2000 work, according to the HHS report.

Despite the problems listed in the administration's documents, agency officials said
they are placing a priority on systems that provide benefits and services to the

Nancy Killefer, Treasury's assistant secretary for management, said payment systems
for Social Security recipients, veterans and federal retirees have been fixed and
that testing will be completed 15 months before the year 2000 arrives.

At HHS, spokesman Chris Peacock said the agency has developed plans to protect
Medicare beneficiaries. "We're devising the right strategy for doing this and will
work with Congress on it," he said.

But Rep. Horn, whose staff members have been investigating the progress of federal
agencies for two years, said he was unmoved by sanguine forecasts from the
administration. He called on President Clinton to hold a "fireside chat" to address
the issue and to encourage federal agencies to speed up their work. Horn also urged
Koskinen to require agencies to report their progress on a weekly, instead of
quarterly, basis.

"I want him to bang heads when someone's lagging," Horn said at a news conference

"The longer the administration stays away from it, the more likely they are to be
attacked," said Sen. Robert Bennett ( R-Utah ) , who chairs a special Year 2000
committee in the Senate.

Koskinen said the White House is "looking for the appropriate forum and the
appropriate time for the president to address this issue." Administration officials
said earlier this month that a presidential address would be delivered within the
next two months.

"The problem is not being too soft," Koskinen said. "It is clear that those working
on the problem are working very hard."

 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:36 - ID#31867)
Give up your guns and gold and you lose your freedom and wealth. Let lawyers
run things and you have the modern world.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:38 - ID#187109) prices....
closest I've seen......

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:39 - ID#255217)
Just now read your latest post. I know what you are saying; but it's not always that easy to bail out of a losing position if you truly believe that it is only a temporary setback and a rally may occur momentarily, pulling your chestnuts out of the fire. The seasoned investor may have the experience AND discipline to make the decision to do so; but this market is loaded with SCADS of people who don't have those qualifications. There will be significant pain and suffering on the way down, I think.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:44 - ID#43349)
I hadn't thought about how the near term is also difficult to
predict dur to short term random events which average themselves
out over a slightly longer time scale.

I like the adaptive approach too. The way in which people and
systems react to a given event change. What is bullish news
at one point might be bearish at another. People also change
in what they consider important. If many people decided that
phases of the moon was important then while that fad was in
vogue you would see a 28 day lunar cycle component increase
in importance. Later when that idea fell out of popularity
it would go away ( with the advent of Viagra we may see the
28 day cycle grow in importance after all ) .

What you need is a good heuristic program to do all that
tedious re-evaluation for you.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:46 - ID#255217)
My sentiments , eggzactly!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:49 - ID#317193)
Back in the 40s I was a child. The only oscillators I am familiar with are some of my muscles that twitch. Carry on Sir with your endeavors...Ill track your progress.

Trade on your data and decisions and Ill do the same. Each must live with the results. At least we each will only have ourselves to look to if we are wrong.

One last note...never post an I told you so. This is I believe, inconsiderate and shows a lack of heart.

Good trading to you.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:49 - ID#344239)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:49 - ID#43349)
I agree. A lot wait too long,a few are wise enough or lucky enough
to get out too soon, but it seems like there is so often a bunch
of big money ( usually funds ) trying to get out the door at the same

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:53 - ID#401460)
Clinton's Friend Dick Morris

"The backdrop to all this is, of course, the checkbook of Bernard Schwartz. What business did the president have in accepting a campaign contribution of $100,000 from the head of Loral - part of the $1.1 million he ultimately gave Clinton - four weeks before granting the first satellite-launch waiver in June of 1996? Where was Clinton's judgment?

This scandal is unlike any other Clinton has faced. It concerns national security, China and a blatant tie-in with campaign financing. Forget Monica.

Last week's Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showed that 65 percent of the public feels that this scandal is more serious than the rest. This is the scandal that commands our attention and focus. Here is where the action is."


(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:53 - ID#43349)
Way to go Argent!! Hear that world? Argent says it's going down
bigtime tomorrow.

Haven't seen Frodo or any of the old gang lately. Ever since I went
chasing after the precioussssssss I've been down.

silver plate
(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:54 - ID#234253)
usa gold
anybody have the correct url for usagold . my old one doesnt work any more. tnx

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:56 - ID#335190)
Business taking Care of Business EH! @ The Jew's present a strong case for First Nation's People EH!

June 3, 1998

Holocaust survivors sue biggest German banks

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Gold teeth, jewelry and other property stolen from Jews sent to Nazi death camps allegedly profited two of Germany's biggest banks, which were sued Wednesday by Holocaust survivors.

An $18-billion US lawsuit names Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Bank. The suit is similar to one against Swiss banks accused of hiding dormant accounts and other assets belonging to victims.

"The SS robbed us of everything, even by pulling gold teeth, gold jewelry and gold coins from our live and dead bodies," said plaintiff Michal Schonberger, 68.

The two banks are accused of profiting from Holocaust victims by accepting, laundering or selling their personal property, including cash, securities, art and family heirlooms.

A message left at the Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt was not immediately returned Wednesday. Calls to the Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt went unanswered.

Another of the plaintiffs, Ruth Abraham, 85, was part of a wealthy Berlin family when the war broke out. Her parents were taken to their deaths, but she evaded the camps and survived the Holocaust by hiding in the homes of sympathetic Germans.

In the late 1980s, "I went to the Dresdner Bank in New York and I asked for my family's assets, but they gave me no help," Abraham said.

The lead plaintiff in the suit, which seeks class-action status on behalf of at least 10,000 people, is Harold Watman, a 77-year-old native of Poland who survived Auschwitz.

Watman said he was thrown to the ground and his gold teeth pulled by members of an SS brigade. Other German banks also may have collaborated with Nazis, Fagan said.

After allegedly stashing the stolen assets, the banks conspired to conceal information about the accounts and hindered any accounting of the
deposits, according to the complaint.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:56 - ID#20748)
Calling all technicians.
IDT : We are in the same boat. I was under the impression that 'print' high is the intraday high. Maybe a technician in the group can explain it to us, i.e. which number represents the 'print' high. Reify, Preacher ?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:57 - ID#349224)
Message to all regarding Y2K
My friend Harvey purchased a Sony camcorder last fall. He also purchased a 5-year extended warranty. When Sony mailed him his warranty it said something like this:
Date of warranty: Nov 1, 1997
Warranty expires: Nov 1, 1902

If one of the largest and most sophisticated electronics companies in the world has this simple Y2K problem, what does this imply about other companies?

Does anyone else have any similar stories from personal experience?

Crystal Ball
(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:58 - ID#287405)
You asked about the Dow's "print" high. The Dow's daily high and low are calculated based upon the highs and lows of all the stocks in the Dow. Since the stocks in the Dow rarely all trade at their exact highs and lows at the exact same time, the Dow is unlikely to "print" ( or actually TRADE INTRADAY ) at either the calculated high or low price. The "print" high is the highest price the Dow is quoted at in actual trading during the day. Hope that helps.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 20:58 - ID#317193)
Thanks a bunch tolerent1...what do you have when the lawyer has gold and guns?

Perhaps I should go judge a debate with myself. Ill enjoy the company of all three of me.: )

Crazy or unique, I dont care. Off to the b-ball game.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:00 - ID#43349)

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:02 - ID#43349)
I hope he doesn't need to get it serviced.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:04 - ID#335190)
Bre-X lawsuits likely unaffected by ailing Walsh: lawyers

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Legal efforts to recover billions of dollars in shareholder losses from the Bre-X Minerals gold mining swindle are proceeding despite the failing health of the company's founder.

David Walsh remained comatose and in critical condition in a Bahamian intensive-care unit Wednesday after he reportedly suffered a massive stroke on the weekend.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:05 - ID#39857)
$US295 /$A0.59=$A500/oz
Sydney - Thursday - June 4: ( AAP ) The Australian dollar fell to
a low of $US0.6080 this morning and Commonwealth Bank technical
analysis targets further downside to $US0.6050.
Rises should be limited to $US0.6120.
The next levels of support are pegged at $US0.6000 and
A rise through $US0.6130 signals the current fall is over and
$US0.6195 generates the first sign of strength.
However, only a rise through $US0.6345 confirms a reversal.
The Australian dollar is well placed to challenge support in
the 83.50-80 Japanese yen region, CBA dealers said.
Any rises today are limited to 84.70.
If support gives way then a new long-term decline commences.
While 83.50 yen holds there is scope for the currency to return
to 87 yen and maybe even 90 yen.
A rise through 85 yen is the first sign of strength but only a
break of 85.90 confirms this.
The first leg of a corrective drop fo the US dollar ended
around 137.42 yen and the subsequent rise to 138.70 meets the technical
requirement of a pullback.
CBA techs said the pair are vulnerable to a downturn.
If immediate support in the 138.20 vicinity holds then the
downside can be delayed as 139.10 yen is tested.
Eventually a drop should take the greenback to 136.80 yen and
possibly 135.80.
From there the uptrend resumes and only a break of 134.70
signals a deeper drop to 132 yen.
The US dollar has fixed on the CBA target of 1.7690 German
marks and dealers expect a bottom to form today and a rise through
1.7780 confirms this.
From that point the 1.8050-8170 region should be the focus.
A failure to rally today suggest the current fall should extend
to 1.7535 but only a break there opens the way for a new decline.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:07 - ID#307271)
Thanks Preacher--That was great !
BTW, since gold vs dollar has been classically an inverted marriage, what do you make of the new lock-step created by the Asian-Worldwide drop against the dollar. Do we recalibrate our instruments?

When I was a boy, nobody got a nickname like "butch" or "slick" without good reason. No matter how badly we all want to see The Guns of Navarone taken, this cat is likely to land on his feet. Never underestimate a card player named "slick". I hope Ken Star is using those SILVER BULLETS and his name is Ken "Bulldog" Star.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:14 - ID#333126)
a most interesting diversion on Intel PII chips

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:16 - ID#31867)
TYOUNG, a great American who may be one of the last with Honor in his chosen
profession, that just reminded a barbarian, that said barbarian has a BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG MOUTH! I shall carve there are no absolutes...100 times in a large rock...NAMASTE'

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:44 - ID#429270)
Australian dollar...July 1986 bottom on a month end close .5960
I do not see support below that, do you?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:47 - ID#228128)
You Bet
Crystal Ball: Got it. Thanks.

Preacher: I met Adrian Day a couple of times in New Orleans and I agree that he seems a likeable and decent guy. He was very willing to talk to people individually. There is someone that posts here on rare ocassions named Adrian. I asked him if he was none other than Adrian Day but he never responded. Never posted again that I can recall.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 21:50 - ID#287186)
After the crash
Nothing will be worth much except a hill of beans! };- )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:01 - ID#255217)
How much you figure those beans might be worth? ( In case I run out. ) Can I buy bean futures from you now? Are they pintos or kidney or navy or what? ( I prefer pintos, being from Texas. )

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:06 - ID#43349)
I hear a hill of beans is going up in Casablanca, but it's still
not worth as much as a Maltese falcon

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:10 - ID#255217)
Up to your old tricks, again, eh Smeagol? Do YOU have the Falcon?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:11 - ID#413109)
different posts for different folks
6pak ( Business taking Care of Business EH! @ The Jew's present a strong case for First Nation's
People EH! ) ID#335190:

Six Pak- please email
Date: Wed Jun 03 1998 20:56
NJ ( Calling all technicians. ) ID#20748:
IDT : We are in the same boat. I was under the impression that 'print' high is the intraday high. Maybe a
technician in the group can explain it to us, i.e. which number represents the 'print' high. Reify, Preacher ?
NJ-Please give me a little more info, as to what you are referring to. Print high is not an expression I've run into
before, but could refer to something if I knew the context. Like you inferred possibly and intraday high.
But the Dow must reach a new closing high above 9211.84,a new print high of 9262 and a new intraday
high above 9312 to confirm that count. If we fail to exceed all 3 of those levels the odds are we have
already seen a final top."
If this is what you were referring to I see that it clearly doesn't mean intraday, but something else. The best
one to get your answer from would be the author, J. Favors.
To all- FWIW- The NSQD is up considerably in pre market trading, and may be an indication, if it holds
of a turn today.The Techs, INHO have lead the market up, down and sideways. It should be interesting
to see if we go to new highs, test the old ones and then sideways, for more distribution by the big guns, and
go down later in the year, like October has always been a fun month, no?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:11 - ID#401460)

NSDQ100 JUN98 1174.40 +1490


(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:14 - ID#43349)
You would only ask that if you were trying to point the finger away
from yourself.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:15 - ID#412286)
Prop 226 which would limit the power of the LABOR UNIONS WAS DEFEATED BY POPULAR VOTE// HOORAY!!!!. If the PRESS is so LIBERAL why was this soo underreported. The real corporate PRESS could hardly stand to report it and if it did understated and denigrated its significance as much as possible. THE TIDE IS TURNING TO PROGRESSIVISM/ Just waitb til after the melt down of the greedy capitalist bubble. Democratic Socialism--YES Tyranny --NO and No More!!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:18 - ID#348129)
@Steve Kaplan: Possible 340. by Autumn.... Not a minute too soon........
" Though gold may continue to attempt to break $291 on the downside, once it closes above $296, there is an increasing likelihood of a sharp near-term surge until at least $320 per troy ounce, and the possibility of $340 by autumn of 1998."

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:22 - ID#401460)
Then What Value Has Gold?

18-Ton Bridge Stolen in Poland
.c The Associated Press

WARSAW, Poland - An owner arrived at his riverside cottage this weekend only to discover he couldn't get near it - someone had stolen
the 18-ton steel bridge that was the only way in.

The 19th-century bridge was apparently cut into pieces with a welding torch and hauled away, police chief Zbigniew Skorwider said Tuesday.

The owner, who was not identified, last visited the cottage in Bytow, 250 miles northwest of Warsaw, in March. He discovered the heist

''Judging by traces in the sand, the thieves must have used a crane and at least one truck,'' said Skorwider.

The scrap value of the bridge was estimated at $1,200. ''I'm not sureif it was worth the effort,'' Skorwider said.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:24 - ID#45173)
Silverbaron: This is a great point you make about gold in real terms
The problem with The Great Reckoning, Dines, Ruff...all those guys is that they called it too early. That means there has been something going on that they did not understand. Still, I'm willing to accept the idea that their analysis is sound but their timing is off, that they underestimated the capacity of capital markets to sustain inflation for such a long terms and the willingness of governments to exercise those capacities.

Gold may reach $3000 per oz in real dollar terms. How might that come to pass? Equities and bonds may both fall so far in risk/return that in the next three years that gold may still be purchased for $300 per oz. and at the same time a new car may be purchased for $3,000 and a new, four bedroom home in Rochester NY for $30,000. Thus is the nature of deflation and shifts in capital investment markets from soft to hard assets.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:29 - ID#43460)
tolerant1, You're right, I can't assure the lights will remain on.
For all you other folks who worry that your gold stocks may go down a few ( or many ) percent, let me remind you of THE fundamental reason that people own gold. All of these links relate to topics touched upon one way or another here over the last year I've been lurking/posting. IMHO

( My standard disclaimer applies. ) IMHO

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:38 - ID#373403)
gagnrad(RE:Silver Precious Metal Clay for cheapskates)
Well I bought the silver: ) ) I modeled it but have not fired it as I want to test my kiln temperature with some temperature pellets first. It is supposed to be very spongy after firing and cannot be easily soldered.

As to tools being expensive, I own over $50,000 worth at replacement cost though I bought over half of them at a discount from the dead jewelers supply house. I cannot help myself. I have enough to outfit three complete benches even though I only employ one goldsmith besides myself. I also have a casting operation in the back room with complete accesories.

I have had my retail store for four years now and I can say that the best part is being self employed and controlling my own destiny.

The one thing I wonder about is how a jewelry store does during an economic downturn. Do I become a buy shop? Do repairs and restyling become the main activity?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:45 - ID#206298)
Hey guys, there is a Canadian Penny stock called Pure Gold Minerals, PUG,
that found a 27 carat yellow diamond last week. And they say they have a big diamond mine that is just starting to produce. Anybody interested? I think this one might be a winner!

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:46 - ID#30116)
@Whither gold?
A bounce off of a new trendline or a retest of the lows for the year? You decide. The betting window is open.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:49 - ID#206298)
@ missing link
If you can build yourself a clientele of people who have a lot of money and you do good work, you will be fine even in a downturn .
(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:57 - ID#434108)
A Golden Cure for Deflation Contagion
""A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation Contagion""

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his
fellow 'founding fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever
allow the banking system to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation; their children
will one day wake up homeless on the continent
their fathers conquered."

The world's financial and monetary systems may
be likened to a gigantic teetering circus-tent. And
when the tent finally collapses. It will not be the
center-post that goes first; it will be the side-posts;
and even the stakes."

The "stakes" are the Asian Tiger economies. The
"side-posts" are the most important trading
partners of the U.S. This includes the strategic
national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The
"center-post" is the U.S. economy, including its
stock markets.

The "tent" is the world-economy, built on a
mountain of artificial money and credit, created out
of thin air, by a politically engineered and
dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has
taken generations, to perfect this art and master
this tune, that plays to the drum-beat of billions of
dollars of false wealth created per week.

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to
counterfeit money, including by governments or

And now what: Gold going up?in the midst of
spreading Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the Kitco site for about a year
now; and it is evident from the discussions there,
that most of us are still deluded by, and caught up
in, the artificial Santa-Clause Economy built on the
BIG LIE: money and credit created out of nothing.
This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent "economic summer" that may last for
generations. All the while the masses
misperceptions grow, while the money-masters of
power, in the world, in control of interest rates, of
credit availability, and of the volume of money
flooding the world.they thus become economic
dictators in hiding.ruling over the ultimate value
of the money you earn, spend, invest, and save for
a 'rainy-day" or retirement, or the kids'' education.

The world over central banks have evolved with
their governments blessings into a quiet, awesome
club of collusion and unbridled power. They hold
in their hands the destinies of nations, and the fate
of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th century
banker of England said: "Give me control of a
nation's money, and I care not who makes the

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as
deflation intensifies. Just as it is very natural for
gold to go up in inflationary times, as well. That is
because the inflation and deflation are happening
to the paper currency, the artificial money of the
realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to
gold. And it is artificial, unbacked money and
credit, once it is spawned out across the world,
that ebbs and flows by the billions and trillions,
thus distorting and manipulating the economies of
the world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is
set in motion, the economies and countries grow
increasingly out of balance, and ultimately out of
control. And it almost always starts showing up in
an obvious way with with currency instability,
which was the root of the problem to begin with -
unreal currencies. Just ask the hundreds of
thousands of Asians who have just been laid off,
or reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion
grow, because we seem to live in enduringly good
times. And the BIG LIE  that artificial money
created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions
of higher learning, in the board rooms of our most
brilliant corporations, at the family dinner table
discussions of what we studied in school today,
and in the not so noble halls of government offices
across our fair land. What we have failed to
understand, or have forgotten, is that the basic
standard, the unit of a nation's money -- the
medium of exchange and store of value -- is the
foundation of, and the fundamental building block,
upon which, a nation's entire economy is built. It is
essential for this unit, this standard of money, to
be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by
any and every one.

Historically only gold money, or money and credit
units convertible to and backed by gold, have
endured as real money, immune to both inflation
and deflation. Gold is independent and free of
manipulation and control by any governmental
powers and special interests. John Adams' words
of 200 years ago are just as timely and important
today: "All the perplexities, confusions and
distresses in America arise, not from defects in the
Constitution or confederation, not from want of
honor or virtue, as much as from downright
ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted
currency, regardless of governments that rise and
fall, and economies that go through there natural,
moderate, non-manipulated cycles of economic
summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them,
and disciplines their lust for power and control,
along with their intimate banking friends. This
means that economies no longer remain in
balance, and ultimately, over-extended economic
summers, are followed by inevitable, and very
painful economic winters. All of this excess to
excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if
a gold standard money system were established
and honored, among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian
School of Economics put it this way: "The
eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact
that it makes the determination of the monetary
unit's purchasing power independent of the
measures of governments. It wrests from the
hands of the "economic czar" their most
redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is
furiously attacked by all those who expect they will
benefit by bounties from the seemingly
inexhaustible government purse." ( The truth and
wisdom from this master-teacher of true
economics, might help us better understand why
there has been so much media coverage of
reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming
credit-creation world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden
international economy with careening markets and
collapsing paper currencies. This debt-ridden,
artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly
inflated values. World-wide, property values are
beginning to feel the effects of spreading deflation.
The recent deflationary free-fall in Hong Kong
property values, will likely spread next to Japan
and China. The deflationary world economy is like
a Titanic, and their are never going to be enough
IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy
beginning to mire in debt and growing deflationary
momentum, is the overcapacity of industrial and
technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and
now, the world is not only awash in red-ink, but
also in a glut of goods and services that most
people don't want, and fewer and fewer can really
afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the
recipe for spreading, world-wide deflation, with
ominous implications. When desperate Asian
nations want to import new cars to sell here at half
last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers
and trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons
of gold: gold unassailable, real money, and gold as
a haven of capital preservation in times of
economic crisis and currency turmoil. We got
ourselves into this mess by allowing our
governments and special interests to divorce our
money from gold backing and convertibility. At one
time, our currency was originally as good as gold,
a virtual receipt for real money. It was even
printed, right there on each and every U.S. piece
of currency: "payable to the bearer on demand in
gold". It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit
instruments at certain times, just as inflation does
at other times, because they can be controlled and
manipulated by the powers that be. Naturally
stable economies, based on real money, are
immune to inflation and deflation, and the powers
that be -- their hands are tied, by the immunity of,
and independence of gold. I have an early 1930s'
chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area
entitled: "What Makes the U.S. Economy
Tickand Why it is a Ticking Time-Bomb." The
economy's turned out to have a longer fuse than
I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse
is, indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932
Homestake Mining appreciated approximately
500% while the Dow was crashing in wave after
deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit
themsort of the way growing numbers of
people are feeling in Asia. And the "Asian
Contagion" is spreading, regardless of our
self-absorbed, insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in
( confiscated ) the American people's gold in the
early '30s - at the old price at about $20/oz.; and
then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this
no doubt helped the HM price along its bull market
way. But I wouldn't wait for another confiscation, or
another FDR. The new baby bull market in gold is
here, now. And before its over, there's going to be
quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of
the '80s & '90s, will not be able to get out of the
same 'sell' door at the same time; it could get very
messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing
cycle runs its course, there will be a new dawn,
and new day. The peoples of the nations of the
world, their governments and bankers included,
will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and
gold-defined credit instruments. These will be the
basic monetary building-blocks, the life-giving
ingredients -- like a healthy, renewed, purified
economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies.
This will come, in a new millennium of economic
nation building, in which a thriving world economy
will create and produce enough for all peoples,

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color,
have an equal opportunity to contribute; and enjoy
the fruits of their work, and their entrepreneurial
talents. May we all learn to live in a new world, in a
cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of
the human soul, the inherent freedom of the
human spirit, and the sanctity of human life.

David Blair Macrory

2 February 1998

Back to Gold

Copyright  1997 & 1998 vronsky and westerman

(Wed Jun 03 1998 22:58 - ID#43349)
That's interesting. It had always been known that there
were diamonds somwhere in Canada becuase they had occasionally
been found in glacial deposits pushed down from the north,
but I don't recall if anyone ever figured out precisely where.
Looks like PUG does.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:02 - ID#244446)
Gold might retest the lows---
--that's where the stops are.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:03 - ID#190411)
panda's chart
According to Kaplan, who has been right quite a bit lately, you had better leave some room at the upper portion of your charts.
I surely would welcome a change of scale in your coloful charts.
Lift a golden one to the gold. ......belch..

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:06 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.96 The 50 day moving average is 29.80

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:08 - ID#253228)
I forget sometime that trading has serious consequences, and success or failure can make a major difference in each of our lives. When I posted my little "I told you so" title I was doing it in a playful manner. It certainly wasn't a parental "I told you so" along with a pointing finger. Actually, I have very little critical parent in me which is why I was ( am, but my girls are now parents themselves ) such a terrific parent in real life. In any event I understand your comment.

If I hadn't developed such a thick skin from my own mistakes over the years, and from the occasional ridicule I get for my ideas, I probably would have been more in tune to the possible reaction to my remark.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:10 - ID#235378)
Jeil - Consider this factor to limit Oscillating Events.
Referring to page 152 of the J.M.Hurst book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing",it becomes apparent that Historic Events have no lasting effect on market trends. For example, the assination of John F. Kennedy. The market sold off quickly on the news, but recovered soon after. Historic events do effect temporarily but only disrupt more continuous oscillations for a short period. If you come to accept this as true, then perhaps you can simplify your endeavor by eliminating the need to insert additional ocillations to force your model to conform to these disruptions and just accept the fact that the model may not reflect every detail but will be generally correct overall.

Also, you might take a word of caution from those who develop trading programs. It is possible to over-optimize. This can make the model look good for awhile only to become erratic over time. I believe some traders do re-optimise from time to time, with experienced results.

I continue to take much interest in your work.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:11 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .250 The 50 day moving average is .268. My database contains 12 occasions where the XAU closed in the 73.XX range. The reading today ranks #10 in relation to the gold price. The #1 ranking was established on 12/26/91 with a gold price of $354.50, an XAU of 73.61 producing an XAU/Spot ratio of .208

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:12 - ID#206298)
Those are incredibly awful things. There are times in my life when I think the world of civilized man is just a short step out of barbarianism. It is disturbing that we can be such ferocious killers.
Motivated by false beliefs that some of us are better than our brother
because of our color or religion.I feel empty when I see pictures and read stories like those.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:13 - ID#287186)
Gagnrad - perhaps are deeper view into history may give us clues
When many turn their backs on that which brought them misery and chaos.

We tend to lose sight of the FACT that we who are adapted and proficient are a very slim minority who may be pilloried by the ignorant, cold, sick, hungry, and poor who will easily be led to blame US for what happened to them.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:13 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.74

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:17 - ID#43460)
themissing link re dead jewelers, tools, downturns et cetera
Sorry, the cheapskate comment was a joke! IMHO

You say there's a dead jeweler supply house? I suppose one has to have the secret jeweler's decoder ring to get a catalog? IMHO

I have one friend who is a jeweler and who has thought of his own answer for economic downturns. He has started teaching jewelry and watch repair at a trade school. He believes ( and I do too ) that the best insulation against adverse conditions is education, education and more education. He's been through a couple of economic cycles now; when times are good he has small classes, spends a lot of time in his own shop, designs things et cetera but in bad times his enrollment goes up. IMHO

Another friend has prostituted himself making cheap costume jewelry which he sells en masse via catalog and through jobbers. He enjoys the design and selling and hires people to do production. IMHO

You will let us know how the silver clay turns out! I've heard it shrinks a lot but produces lightweight objects. IMHO

Don't worry, though about the depression! I've decided I'm going to move in with ROR and share his stuff in a proper socialist manner 'till it blows over. IMHO

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:17 - ID#411112)
OK who opened the door and let ROR in


(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:17 - ID#411150)
..... Platinum fall over? Or winter just starting? .....

Platinum spot closed today at $357.50, just $3 above its low for the year of $354.60, January 6, 1998. Palladium sponge is hitting the spot market; reports say it is from the Russians. I still think it is Tigers milk and, if that is the case, the teat will run dry this year. Drip, drip, drop.. "Heeeeeeey, whered it all go? I'm still hungry!"

One negative factor was an announcement that Engelhard signed on with Volvo to test its PremAir technology using base metals, rather than PGMs, to reduce ambient ozone. Some analysts believe that this new technology will diminish platinum demand in the autocatalyst sector but Engelhard denies this is so and is resolute in its call for increased platinum demand in 1998. The 14-day RSI for platinum is at 27, showing that platinum is heavily oversold. Word is that one major analyst has major buy recommendations posted at $350, which is seen as a bottom for the recent price range. This last is a rumor, but one which I put more faith into than some other stories I hear.

This platinum play has been vicious and brutal, but the rebound is likely to be as quick as the decline. I would like to at least see and interday low of $342 to hit the bottom of January. Takes heart folks, from $342 in January, platinum rose to $432 in just a couple months. Just juxtapose the 4 and the 3 and all is pretty again. Uh Huh.

Palladium will have another go at it in the next sixty days.

Silver looks as if it has set up a major bottom here and all signs point to a buy. Im not buying. Not yet I aint. 4.98 wasnt low enough, it smells lower. Still and all, it looks good here. Others may dip their stick, Mine own shall stay unwetted at 5.25.

Gold flat to down, sorry.

Salty crusty limey callin curmudgeon downunder clever word fellow ( now THAT is a nickname ) - Still lookin into JM stuff, righty-o, yes? InDAMNdeedy.

Grindin Guy -

Will comply. Awaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.. towilco@rogeroverandoutindeedy


(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:19 - ID#206298)
@ Gollum
I think the diamond mine is in S. Africa. There is a real good newsclip on it on PR Newswire, for Yahoo! I am going to do a little math on thier figures and maybe buy 10K shares if it looks right.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:21 - ID#75206)
Bema Gold

Don't know where you're getting your numbers from but they don't agree with any I've seen. Estimated cost of the Casale mine is $1.3 billion, not $2.5. Also, what are you basing your tonnage and grade on? Both are low based on what I've seen from MRDI's resource calculations and pre-feasibility study.

In my opinion, Placer has already decided this project is a go or they wouldn't be spending the money they are on the extensive drilling to find a closer water source or to find the exact boundaries and depth of the deposit. If they had doubts about the economics of Casale, they would only be doing the necessary in-fill drilling and metallurgical work for a feasibility study. Their agreement with Bema called for them to bring the Aldebaran property to the bankable feasibility study stage and spend at least US$15 million exploring various targets on the property other than Casale. Their initial estimate of the cost of the fesibility study was US$25 million. They've already spent US$10.5 and they're only 4 months into a study that will take almost 2 years to complete. At this rate, Placer will spend far above their estimated $25 million on the feasibility study. I believe they know they are going to own 51% of the Aldebaran property and are willing to spend the money to find out exactly what is on it, how big the Casale deposit is, and how best to extract ore from all the economic sites on the property. A considerable chunk of the up-front capital costs are infrastructure costs and I expect Placer's feasibility study will encompass more sites on the property than just Casale. Economies of scale can play a big role here in reducing costs/oz and I expect Placer to plan their study based on the entire property, not just the Casale deposit. Keep in mind there are several million ozs of gold at other sites on the property; i.e., Cerro Roman, Romancito, Eva, etc. that is close to the surface and will be easy to heap leach once the infrasture is in place.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:24 - ID#253228)
I find it difficult to give you a straight answer to time before failure.

This project of mine has been going on for quite some time and if I had made a list of mistakes along the way I might have a small manuscript. Each change I have made in computational method or in program detail has had a different effect on the subsequent try. When I first started out I would have projections that were almost the exact opposite of what was to happen. Within the past five years I maybe was having 50/50 results, but when the failures hit it may have taken six months to develop something new and then find how reliable it was. It was not until last summer that I really started getting close, and the last revision I made was a few months ago. That was a small programming change ( double precision instead of single precision ) and a slight modification in the way cycle amplitudes were calculated ( a sliding scale rather than a more average approach ) . I can see this is better than before so I just have to play out the current senario to see. I'll know that it didn't work if I lose money. I hope the time till failure this time is infinite, but if you check my site occasionally you will know about the same time as I do that a failure has occured.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:24 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re PM clay
Thanx a bunch for this lead. I have dealt with RIO, but not lately. This opens up some good potential. Have to study some. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:27 - ID#411150)
..... Gollum .....

I began to follow your posts for an odd reason: It was farfel, he made me do it. That said, I would now like to sever any and all relationship between your posts and those of our departed fiend... oooops, forgot the r, I mean friend. While you may share some of the same views, your posts are clearly searching for the truth as they are answering one truth. I do not feel dogma coming from you, but reasoned thought and well rounded arguments.

We will find ourselves on opposite sides of the coin on occasion, but the forum is better for your presence and your words provoke thought.


(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:29 - ID#206298)
Have you tried using Trade Station to backcheck your model?
You can get a 30 day free trial from them.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:32 - ID#43460)
BCIWN, sorry, didn't mean to dismay
But I think there are 2 types of metals investors, the traders and the long term investors. As a LTI I try to focus on the reasons I would waste money I could otherwise draw interest on. These reasons are essentially the same that some little blue painted Pict had when he wore his gold torc and carried his silver cup, a rag sack full of barley and a sword and not much else while the Romans tried to wipe out his race. IMHO

It is sad that such history exists. But it exists, nevertheless. IMHO

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:32 - ID#335190)
In an oxymoronic paradox, Time is what you perceive it to be. @ Y2K??
Time... the fourth dimension............. But what is Time?

Is Time represented accurately by the digital alarm clock beside your bed ...........or
the clock on your wrist?

Is Time money?

Or is Time exactly measured by the atomic clocks in Switzerland?
is it none of the above?

... we are living a late medieval Pope's concept of linear Time, which like all the controlling psycho-babble from the Vatican, is designed to enslave the human spirit and to set humanity apart from the sacredness of nature.

True Time transcends the physical boundaries of our three dimensional concepts, yet our fourth dimensional concept of Time as been captured by the mechanical three dimensional clock with its false 12:60 ratio of Time, and the 12 month Gregorian calendar, which follows no known biological rhythms.

...................Doesn't Time seem to be speeding up?

From Babylon, by the decrees of Enlil, then Marduk-Ra, then Enlil again.
This false sense of 12:60 time has been handed down through the millennia, first through the Roman maniac Julius Caesar, who is responsible, among other things, for such ignorant acts as renaming the 10th month October. Excuse me, but doesn't "octo" as in octagon refer to 8, November to 9, and December to 10.

After Babylon was conquered in 539 bce by Persian invaders, and later fell into ruins, circa 320 bce, the Greeks adopted a 10 month calendar.
To return the Western World to the false 12:60 timing frequency, Julius changed the 10 month Greek calendar back to the Babylonian 12. He did this by adding July for himself, and August for the emperor Augustus.

The months at this point were a combination of 30 and 31 days. Jealous that Julius' month was a day longer than his, Augustus ordered a day taken from 30 days of February, making it 29, and added it to August to make August the same as July... brother.

In 532 CE, to enslave us in the false concept of linear Time, the monk Dionysius Exiguus developed an annual count starting with the year 1 CE, which in his best guess was representative of the year Jesus was born.
This is why there is a false conception that the year 2000 represents the turn of the millenium... it doesn't.

The year 2001 is actually the 2000th year of the Jesus count, as the year count began with 1.

This is because the Western World did not discover the mathematical concept of zero until a thousands years after Exiguus did his calculating, and 1500 years after the more advanced Maya had.

In 1582 CE, Pope Gregory XIII, added leap year to the scenario, and enslaved the New World to this false sense of 12:60 linear Jesus AD/BC Time - The false Babylonian Time that according to the word of the christian god began with the creation of the entire universe in 4004 BC, and ends with Armageddon ASAP.

The false Time that has humanity racing toward an evolutionary date with a conversion to techno sapien, rather than terra sapien. The false Time whose mad science has brought our Earth Mother to the point of the environmental collapse, rather than returning Her to a garden state.
FWIW........Take Care

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:35 - ID#411150)
..... 6 pak .....

Way linear, dude...........


(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:37 - ID#26793)
Time is purely a useful invention of man. Time would not exist except that man needs to know how long he will live. The universe exists in a continuum.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:42 - ID#43460)
squirrel, tnx, chas beware!
Thanks, squirrel, I've bookmarked the link. Comments about the Picts and Romans apply. Human nature is the same. IMHO

Chas, beware! Making things from metal is highly expensive, may be addictive! Plus a failed casting can make a person want to jump out the window. Being on the first floor has saved my life numerous times! Splat! ( 8-^] ) IMHO

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:43 - ID#253228)
That is a nice book, expecially appendix six which more or less describes what I am doing. I have added nothing to allow for randoms. Just a trend and hundreds of cycles.

I wonder what ever happened to Hurst. He had a good fifteen year start on anyone who had to wait for personal computers to run the calculations. My guess is that he made more money from his book sales than his trading. It is one thing to do calculations and it is yet another to deal with the emotions of trading.

If I were not such an optimist, I might have stopped in my early days when failures were more frequent than success. I can remember walking around for months at a time like I had been run over by a trolly. Good thing I had an understanding wife and a good source of income from my "day job".

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:43 - ID#225273)
Drifter & BGO
I took the numbers from BGO's press release of today.
As for the grade and tonnage, it read:

"Previous drilling by Bema resulted in an independent mineable reserve calculated by Mineral Resource Development Inc. ( ``MRDI'' ) as part of their Pre-Feasibility Study on the Cerro Casale deposit. MRDI's mineable reserve estimate totalled 846.7 million tonnes grading 0.72 g/t gold and 0.29% copper containing 19.5 million ounces of gold and 5 billion pounds of copper. The reserve is 85% proven and probable."

I realize I had a typo and put the copper grade at .20% instead of .29%.
As for the cost of construction, my understanding is that PDG is to arrange up to $1.3 billion for BGO's and AZS's portion of the mine construction. I am assuming that BGO/AZS portion is only half and that PDG will come up with the other half.
If that is incorrect, I will stand corrected. In your opinion, does the $1.3 billion in financing cover PDG's half also or is PDG's half in addition to the $1.3 billion?

Thanx for bringing this to my attention.

The Preacher

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:43 - ID#335190)
gagnrad @ 23:17
Can I come ! when you go to ROR's place.
Take Care

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:47 - ID#287186)
For more on the Pict that Gagnrad speaks of

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:48 - ID#206298)
@ Gagnrad
I am a trader. I am constantly trying to get better at trading. I know that I am playing against someone else who is going to lose to me in the long run because I work very hard at trading better and smarter on each trade. I make sure that I profit from my losing trades by finding my mistake in the trade and feeling the pain of losing hard earned money.
If we have a bull market in gold for 10 years ,I do want to be a part of it. And after 10 years I will not stay married to my gold if a new bear market approaches

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:53 - ID#253228)
One of the problems I had to solve in doing my little calculations is that you have to set up your data in a table or rows and colums with each block filled. The table for each cycle has one more row than the length of the cycle, so you are almost always going to be throwing out some data points. It is clear to me that the more recent data points are of more significance than the first data points from years ago.

Since all oscillations vary ( never repeat exactly as before ) and since I am using the way they are in more recent times, it becomes impossible to back test. In effect I am selectivley ignoring the way things used to be and looking more at what they more currently are.

Perhaps I did not say that well. In any event thanks for the suggestion.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:54 - ID#287186)
Yes, Gagnrad, there is hope for those who resist.
The Romans came to Scotland, often defeated the Picts in battle, but they never conquered them or the land on which they lived. Within thirty years of their establishment, the Picts had destroyed and burned the Roman forts, and Rome's most famous legion, the Ninth was sent north from Inchtuthil to perhaps relieve Pictish pressure. The legion was massacred and forever lost in some unknown battle against the painted men of the north.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:54 - ID#242303)
When are you going to start putting your money where your model is?

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:55 - ID#20347)
Does North Korean have a Nuclear Device?

The Japanese think so.

``It is quite possible that Pyongyang possesses at least one nuclear bomb, as many defectors have said,'' a Western observer based in Seoul said.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:58 - ID#210114)
Makin' Money.....Just
Last year I bought gold at $US 321 at $A .74. This makes A$434.

Have now got $US 292 at $A .61 which equals $A 477.

Makin' money.... jus. Would have been better off if I bought $US.

Things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Wed Jun 03 1998 23:59 - ID#373403)
Dead jewelers supply house
"Oh, you are a jeweler? My father was a jeweler."

"What did you do with his tools?"

"They are in the attic in boxes."

"I might be interested, oldtimers made interesting tools which are not available today"

It makes people feel good that their fathers legacy can live on through his tools. Some extra pocket money is good too.

gagnrad, I knew you were kidding. I could not justify the 4X markup on spot for the gold. It was bad enough paying $35/oz for the silver. Maybe if there is promise in the silver I may try the gold. FWIW PMC is manufactured by Mitsubishi Materials.

RE:Diamonds in the North American attic ( What, eh? ) The mining company which made a large diamond strike in Canada is the parent company of Argyle out of Australia. Argyle was the first major defection from DeBeers cartel a few years ago. Canadian diamonds will also be sold independent of DeBeers Central Selling Organization.

DeBeers grip on the diamond market is slipping and their recent ploy to "watermark" diamonds is IMHO an exit strategy from the monopoly business. I believe they plan to scare the market regarding synthetic ( real but lab created ) diamonds which are now being made in gem qualities, and sell out their vast warehoused stock. This way they can maximize their dumping quantities of diamonds on the market without driving down prices of "certified genuine DeBeers". Why else would a monopoly power need to brand it's product?