I guess the monetary saturation point
Is much like alcohol saturation.
There's always room for one or two more.
As the head spins wildly.
And then comes the big barf.
-- excuse me for this analogy --

Hong Kong Hang Seng 8067.21 -324.25 -3.86%
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Hong Kong Gold spot at 291.10
http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi
GC Q8 August Gold 293.60 down -1.90
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc
Hopefully, I will cover my ASSests tomorrow on a up-tick in the price of gold. I can not play this FOOLS GOLD game much longer! Does anyone know who is buying 1 oz. Phillies at the best price? Has anyone worked with Southern Coins & Precious Metals at http://www.scpm.com/ ? They quote buying 1 oz. Austrian Philharmonics for +3.30% over spot.

I'm not sure if it was the same article, but it said there were rumours ( not verified ) that some attorneys were thrown in jail in Denver for insisting that the income tax amendment to the US Constitution was never properly ratified.

I asked a prominent attorney I know about the Amendment being a fraud. He said, "That's complete rubbish."
Not understanding if he meant that the rumours weren't true or if that he meant that it was an injustice, I asked him to clarify. "He said there was no truth in the allegations."

I am certain that he was lying.

Asia gold now down to $290.40.

"During her talks with Obuchi, Albright requested that Japan share some of the costs of providing North Korea with heavy oil. Obuchi declined the request, but went on to declare Japan's readiness to cover $1 billion
reactor cost, the sources said.

The United States will continue to provide North Korea with heavy oil until the light-water nuclear reactors are completed, the sources said."
http://www.asahi.com/english/enews/enews.html

Goodnight!

That was a great anology! As close to perfect as I have seen yet!!

HK off nearly 4% only a few points above 8000. Japan down 1.5%; Australia down 40 points, Tiawan down 3%. Gold off $2.30 silver up a cent - ( metal quotes 3/4 - 1 hr old ) .

With nothing to save them, nobody to help them, the Asian markets are being left to find their own lower levels, along with their falling currencies.

America is sitting safely - it's an Asian problem - you know, Asians. These economies will be put back a decade before this is all over in terms of pruchasing power and standard of living. What should AMerica care its corporations will be able to come in and buy distressed sale assets.

Gold and Silver - It's going to be tough and probably a long shot but IF gold could rise tomorrow - what a surprise that would be - however, snything below 288 and, as the Preacher advised, it will time to kiss all this precious stuff goodby and I don't know . .. wait for $180 gold.

Pessimism will be building in the evening in the US, in Europe - how the market reacts and if it can hold the 288 mark and if buyers appear - that will be the test. Make it or break it time for gold; we are near the point, all support gone, deflation, depression, devaluations everywhere, gold goes down like the grains and energies - down for the count -dead. If I were short I'd be thrilled with my prospects.

Tells us that these governments can't shore up their currencies by selling their strong monetary reserves and buying their own weak currencies. The history books will tell them that. They will soon be filling their wheelbarrows with yen or yuan to buy bread or rice as they did in the 1920's in Germany. It will leave the political system ripe for dictatorship.

Thanks, sharefin, great contribution. Excuse accepted.
What is the saturation point? Is it
total M3 / stock market = X GDP ..... or what?

Is there a major, unquantifiable psychological component?

?

First-to wake up in the morning with spot gold at $300.00 thats good!!
Second definition of a surprise is "A FART WITH A CHUNK IN IT!!!" ha Ha!!

Thank you for your reply, brother Tom.

You know, I suddenly got this strange idea from
nowhere and wanted to see if it makes sense.

O.K., lets stick with logic, dah?

PMSP.

It has to be psychological because all money is now only psychologically backed. At least that is what I think.

Seems like HK is going to lead us into a repeat of Oct97.
And we all know what followed.
Much loss of assets.
The Dow is on shakey ground and now is not a proprietous time to tank hard.
Same goes for European indices.

Gold will be sold to pay for paper burning.
As debts are called upon, physical will be sold.
Currencies will be devalued.

Sort of seems as though we are at a crisis pivot-point time.
Savage break- downs here, will lead to panics of many types.
I would expect them to be of a greater nature than last Oct97's.

Beware holders of paper debts.

I've seen your post last night, thanks, my brother.
We will fly SU-27 together, dah?

Why U.S. jets never perform "cobra"? Regulations or
on-board computer refuses to cooperate? Just curious...

when stocks get hit so hard that money flows into metals for protection. When and where ? I don't know.

That it explains it.........

Isn't that why we play the metals. We believe they will be the salvation in a crash? Am I right or wrong? I think thats why I play them. I say let it crash and get it over with so I can find out if I am right.

Hong Kong sharply lower; off 4.3%. Hang Seng China-related issues hit even harder-down 8.5% yesterday on fears of possible depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, and is down currently over 6%.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980609/hk_stocks__5.html

Hang Seng Index
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^HSI&d=1d

Hang Seng Red-Chip Index
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^HSCC&d=1d

sharefin, All: Fell asleep, only to wake up to KitcoKommotion with Hong Kong dropping. Sure looks like this is a repeat of the October 97 event, triggered either by devaluation of the Yuan or the Japanese Yen.

I wish I could agree with our more bullish Kitcoites that think gold and gold stocks will go up now. We must wait until more people wake up, and realize what is happening to 'fiat' currencies the world over. Only a major twitch in the US markets will shake the 'fiat euforia'. When this happens we will have our gold bug Tsunami. But even then most gold profits will be after the last central tentpeg falls -- the US markets. That will not happen -- yet. Still some more flight to safety yet to come.

I think we are months from any major inflationary move in the US, despite D.A.'s erudite opinions -- and the dropping commodity price index is the best indicator of this.

sorry for the negatives, but there is something afoot that must be explicable, namely, that the capital being destroyed is the "core"capital that is not distinguishable from any other capital. By core capital, I mean that which is not marginal, i.e., that wealth that preceded marginal capital creation from speculation. IMHO, when enough of the capital destruction is of the "primary" or core capital kind, the equilibrium is affected, because the primary or core capital holders are much more sensitive to perturbations in the capital flows. Core capital is fundamental ( basic savings, wages, intrinsic value, and baseline evaluations ) . Your thoughts please.

All: Good observation, whoever noted. The full mooon is a turning point indicator. Not that useful as a predictive indicator as direction and magnitude must be determined by other information. Nearly on the nose, regardless.

I don't think most will wake up until to late. By then gold could go down to ???? But when they do wake up, it will be a hugh awakening that will send the pog flying!!! Buy and hold, Even with gold at $200 that is only a 33% loss that will come back.

When the manner of the medium we call money is forced upon the people by the government and they have no choice, the people simply become passive receptors. what pyschology does a passive receptor exhibit??? none...

Life goes on, and the "passive receptors" simply try to survive, if the market collasped totally tomorrow, everyone would show up for work, and would work, simply because they know no other option, and it would be their attempt for survival that work inspire them to work even if the news told them it was all over.

I have Gold up! at http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

Is that a mirage- please advise so I can go to bed with the correct state of mind ( happiness or despair )

last week I had scanned a jpeg of a Reichsbanknote I have. I wanted to upload it to Kitco, but can't seem to figure it out. Can I email it to one of you who could then upload it and post the link?

The strength that gold showed today after the announcement from the ECU should show again in the market tomorrow. Asia gold prices have been weak over the last two trading days. This could have a lot more to do with attentions being placed elsewhere than a reflection on the value of the commodity.

HI ALL: Wow! Asia is the reddest I've ever seen it at this time of night. The only one in the black is Pakistan, and that's 'cause it doesn't seem to be trading. Doesn't bode well for the US markets tomorrow. Hang Seng down 4.23%. The Commies may want to give Hong Kong back to the British after this. Wonder if it came with a money-back guarantee?

This world is definately in a precarious financial position. Past history says there is going to be a collapse. This is just like a dizzy drunk stumbling and getting ready to fall. This is real and isn't going to go away sithout a solution. And the only solution I see is to stand out of the way of falling drunks!!

12:20 EST $289.50

Please someone, tell me when/where BC told OZ to sell that gold.

GM

I think that what we are on the verge of
Is something that has never been seen before on such a scale.
Sure we have had crashes and corrections,
But never with so many phsycological dollars at stake.

Derivatives are now over $100 trillion???
I don't expect physical assets to go up in value
Till after the counting at the bottom of the crash.

I think gold will bottom when the Dow finishes it's crash.
And that has yet to happen.

But I believe we are on the verge with a gapping chasm as a view.
Truly a house of cards built upon a pyramid of debt.
A pyramid of fiat lending.

I can't say when
But I can say watch out below.

As JTF fondly reminds me.
" Keep your powder dry"

I think keep 100% of your powder dry, till the bottom.
I see the potential for gold to be lots lower.
Maybe only short term but lots lower.

Last time HK went down gold slid $40 odd dollars over a period of time.
If this crash is to be of greater proportions
And to sweep the world.
Perhaps we could well see $250
As paper credits/debts are destroyed.

Now down $4.00 on the site. Watch a stampede tomorrow as the last poor gold bugs dump, I may be one of them. Therefore maybe the bottom is in sight.

Donald: When you have a chance, could you please comment on JP's posts regarding oil producers in trouble? Any idea how many of the big US banks might be at risk? JP mentioned $150 billion US in a study he did. I know that's small potatoes compared to the $1 trillion loss from the Oct 97 episode, but it may be more of a US-only problem.

Looks like Sharefin's ping II has finally looped back to get us! Must have been pinging around in the aether for a while. I am beginning to regret what little I have that is not in cash.

Fairly soon, we will have another boatload of debt defaults, or derivatives losses. Both trade risk and credit risk. US banks will probably be affected again in their earnings reports -- not instantly in the markets -- but when those unspeakable Quaterly reports must go out. I suspect this year there will be many firms that would love to do away with reporting earnings. Proabably the most prominent of these less than stellar reports will be Banks. Tick tock.

I think it will stop at $287.00. But I will keep buying even lower because it is going to come back. I've been playing the stocks and commodities for 20 years. They always come back.

Don't do something foolish that you will regret in nine months.

If I should appear less than serious, please excuse me. Perhaps I have caught the forum at an inopportune time. I will try again later.

busy signal

If you wish I will post it.
sharefin@cairns.net.au

JTF
We could well be alot closer than you think.
We will watch this event together, yes?

ChasAbar
The event was well talked about ( on Kitco ) last year when the event took place.
Little Johnny Howard was in the US talking to BC at the time.
The announcement came through to the press at a unusual time to aid their ploy.
Soros was called in by the RBA to defend our currency at the same moment.

Definitive collusion was the name of the game.

Are you talking selling gold or having sex without contraceprion?

You are right that this is the biggest ever. And you may be right that gold can still go down quite a bit. This is the momma of all crashes we are going to see,and it is going to be very wild and very upsetting to many millions of people. The suicide rate may become enormous, but to me the scariest thing is that historically, many countries try to rebuild an economy buy going to war.!!

All: The markets are capricious, and reasons for events are often not what they seem. The EURO gold announcement may not have been the reason for the sudden drop in the price of gold -- I might have been another deflationary wave from SEAsia!

I am optimistic about gold as an investment -- but I would suggest not buying yet. Each of these deflationary waves pushes gold down, not up -- unless that wave is in your country.

There are already many prophecies regarding the coming war.
I am sure a study of past history will confirm this to be true.

This coming crash weill be all out on its own in terms of magnitude.
Never before has there been so many zeros.

Aug gold rebounding off the low. Now down $3 and change

sharefin: Lets hope our instruments continue to work. Hard to chart your course when the compass is spinning. Ping II looks like a big one -- nothing on the regular news yet in the US --

www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi
Current Spot @$289.70

Better check your bilge pump to see that it still works! This may be a rough one over the next several days.

what is the ultimate signal to us, that Asia is really serious.
As we know, this has been going on for some time, and continues in the absence of leadership. If someone does not step up soon,....
Then we will all pay. What is it about the Asian region that enables the easy enslavement, working for unseen taskmasters that continue enrich themselves at whoever's expense. I do not criticize, I only ask, where is the lead?

How do we teach our children to pay off debts when they aquire them, when the gov't doesn't put a single penny of its budget surplus to pay off a $5 trillion debt? I gues if you want to teach your children to be losers, they have to watch and do as the gov't does.

I haven't thought that this big strong bull market in the US could last this long. So how long the Asian bear will live could be a lot longer too!! Personally, I would like to have the crash and get it over with. This sitting on the side and waiting causes to much anxiety!!

that an old market master who would sometimes whisper to me, comes
and tells me what to do. If he comes, I will tell you his advice.
Good night to all and god bless you all!!

I have spoken with many an attorney regarding this over the years ,,,, ratification is another issue ,,,, give me some time to detail this at a later time because it is rather time consuming to understand and I want to form it properly ,,,,,,

The attorney you have spoken with is probably not lying knowingly ,,,, many in the profession are jaundiced to this because no one ever wins --- it's like the old tobacco adage ----- Think of this this way ,,,, If you are trained in a state sanctioned school systems from pre-school -to- elementary school -to- high school -to- undergraduate education -to- graduate school -to- professional school ,,, what have you learned ,,,, only those topics that are approved by the state school boards ,,,,, there is no such thing as a free-thinking-class that a professor can outline and provide alternative insights into sensitive areas ,,, particularly when they are related to law ,,, this is why it is illegal to practice law without a license and in most state you must get a Judge's ( lawyer ) permission to defend yourself if you choose ,,,, ( California is an exception ) ,,,, when you have this type control over education and combine this with a little political correctness ----- ***poof!*** ---- you have the average thinking person with average views and moderate dissention ,,,,,
,
One who views circumstances through the spectrum of a convoluted reality deviating from the norm -- will always threaten the security of those unable to provide alternative viewpoints towards the NORMAL perception known as their reality ,,, this is a basic tenet of mankind ,,, pick your geographic location and time period ,,,, you can relate what I;ve just stated and have it fit ,,,
,
Lawyers are no different. Lawyers have the same failings as others.,,,

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
Some allusions to ping II?

can you advise me on Tangyika, gold exploration company on the oz index.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

Well, once again, I made the right choice at the wrong time.

Believing that gold was FINALLY on the way up, I bought a number of gold shares right at the PEAK of today's gold rally, only to find that in less than FIVE MINUTES after I bought, the announcement of the lower European gold percentages devastated the gold market. Naturally, Murphy's law was at work once again to make certain that I bought at the peak of the last few days...so that all the gold stocks that I purchased today dropped an average of over 20% before the day was done. Had I purchased yesterday, or just 30 minutes later, I would have been able to obtain 20% more stocks for the same investment.

Why, oh WHY, oh *W*H*Y* do I ALWAYS seem to make the right decision at the wrong time? Will these G***D***F**** shorts ever get their karma? Certainly, they deserve what they get when the POG finally snaps up, as it is most certainly going to do eventually. I only hope that I'm able to hold my stocks and PM's long enough to make up the losses. Whether or not there are any profits for me, I hope to AT LEAST make up my losses.

I'm getting more pessimistic with each passing week, waiting for the overinflated Dow Bull to become more realistic...and for the ( $#%^&@! ) gold bear to go into hibernation. The frustration mounts. When will this bear ever go away?

--Skip

an we fear.

Gold may very well make new lows with a dow crash, but it's purchasing power may actually rise. For example Gold goes to Rober Prechter's $112/oz. However, $112 would buy a lot more than what it buys today, due to stock market, real estate crash.

Then since the banks are throwing people out of their homes and the banks are insovent, Klinton & Co. starts printing up cash to pay off the bankers who hold all this bad debt. The Govt would institute a Home-Owners Loan Scheme, just like Student loans. There would be other Grants, Aid, Loans PLUS the slight problem in that most everyone is dependent upon the govt for entitlements yet tax receipts just vanish. So from that point you would see a whole lot of inflation ( printed currency ) .

That's if confidence stays in the Dollar. If foreigners start selling US assets and repatriating the proceeds with which they buy gold or local real estate, the Dollar might spiral out of control, straight down the crapper.

Confidence is the key.

All,
This morning,Both the stocks and currncies down sharply!From HANGSENG,NIKKIE,KLSE,TSI,STI,TAIWAN WEIGHT ECT down hard!And the rupiahs sinking lower dued to the riot happened again yesterday.The circur come to the town again!
very reliable mention about;

1 ) The blackmarket in Reminbi is wider now!
OFFICIAL:1 U.S:8.23 rem COMPARED to black market 9.00 or more,depand on the area and demand!Around the course to HONGKONG seem greater demand!

2 ) The hongkong and taiwan currencies been under attack by speculators.The actions will last til oct,?

just briefly...

Be heartened! There is certainly much anguish in gold and its relevant investments. If it was easy, everybody would be doing it!
Strength,
Character,
Perseverance!

Yes the amendment or provision against income isn't listed anymore in the law books, whereas generaly all the laws are listed, even those repealed like prohibition, of course if you compare the amendments as they are printed today, you will see minor but signifigant changes in the text when compared against older books.

Today all the prohibition we get is at the post office in those "no likker stamps"

Thank you, Sharefin

Thank you, Jin. I always appreciate your posts.

We are sitting on the losing side of a massive down-trend. I am resource -full --forestry, oil & gas, gold. Al the things you need in a roaring economy. But they have lost over 50% in the last year, whilst NASDAQ high tech companies that have no earnings are selling at 50-60 times next years earnings.

Are we dumb cause we didn't buy them too?

I have gold both up and down and all around tonight. I will bet that which ever way it goes it moves a bunch. Lots of fear out there.
Fear is stronger than greed always

Golds in Oz steady Lhg up 1.4% Ndy no rise. Boy am I happy
I dont own banks, industrials or transport or tourism. I own
gold. It might look to all like I am sitting on my arse. But
thats cause every ones accelerating backwards. And Pronto to.

except the one that bought a digeridoooooo!

Perception is what your talking about, people's perception is formed for them by the State. People percieve many things that simply aren't true, the most recent example, would be why BMW bought chrysler. Which probaly has something to do with the military't new electric hummer, which has four ( 4 ) 100 hp electric moters, one on each wheel, all of which are driven by one 70 hp generator multifuel engine. do the math on that.

I am not up to date on TGO
Their chart looks cheap.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From Nick@C the other day.
~~
Some Aussie shares high on my list.

Biggies:
Resolute ( RSG ) --Au and Ni
Normandy ( NDY ) --biggest in Oz ( 3rd/4th in world )
Centaur ( CTR ) --Au

Littlies ( soon to be biggies ) :
Anvil ( AVL ) --richest cu/Au/Ag deposit in the world--in Congo--if stable then super big profits
Laverton ( LVG ) --Au mine in Sumatra--shares way oversold due to Indonesian problems. They are out in the boonies, away from the troubles--talked to manager--excellent prospects
Legend ( LEG ) and East Coast Minerals ( ECM ) --see Haggis' numerous posts on Munni Munni--rich little Ag deposit.Got a sneaky feeling there is heaps more there than meets the eye.
Mogul ( MGL ) 20 000 000 oz Ag deposit in Mexico. Not yet discovered by the market. Going for a song.
Oxiana ( OXR ) Copper mine in Cyprus plus extremely promising Au/Ag deposits in Phillipines. Big fund in for $5m for exploration.
Tanganyika Gold ( TGO ) --huge African holdings. Anglogold bought in at .30. Now selling for .14. I think Anglogold knows what they're doing.
Takoradi ( TKG ) --huge ground in Africa. 20 bagger when market wakes up.

Now of course I am totally unbiased. It is merely a coincidence that I own shares in most of these companies. Cheers, N.

FWIW Confluence of different crosscurrents will give a myriad
of turning points.June 9 was one,June 15 and 25 are the other
ones.Only with very liquid stock is one entering these gold
markets as they will be very fluid.July 30 is the time to get
in for the long haul.I still believe we see 256 by the end
of July .Buy some leaps on banks that have Asian exposure.Good luck and happy trading.

Twenty million Mark note
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Reichsbanknote.jpg
Text off the note
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Textreich.jpg

i only bought my first gold shares in feb,with very little knowledge on the subject.many thanks again.
GM

Everyone is bent out of shape because a bunch of socialists decided on 10-15% gold in reserves to back the Euro was not the hoped for 25-30%.

This in conjunction with faltering currencies and stock markets worldwide.

In places where foreign bankers are imposing their will on sovereign countries those bankers will be told to leave and they will leave with nothing but their miserable coniving lives.

I think the fiat economic house that these bankers have constructed will soon fail and be replaced with a more equitable system.

Hey, honk, beep, toot, honk, honk to ya!!!! My extended
family and I are having lots of fun with the dige.

And, we don't have to dial in to it, don't have to dress
up or drive to it, and don't even have to plug it in to
the electrical outlet. Just fun. Thanks.

...will remain flights to safety with the collapse of the financial markets in Thailand, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, New Zealand, Middle Eastern Oil producers...with economic sanctions imposed upon India and Pakistan...

...and when you consider the resultant severe implosion in business that will occur to ALL American exporters as the international customer base simply disappears...as foreigners stop buying American semiconductors, computers, films, cars, etc. etc.....

...then I must ask you very frankly...

WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU TAKING?

Thanks.

F*

Gianni
I stand corrected on Olympic games. Tip o' the Hat to you, squire.

Today NZ$ fell to its lowest level cf US$ in 12 years, at 0.49

POG in NZ$ steady at NZ$611. I see US$ POG has just hit 330 eh, F*?

...but tonight's excitement got a hold of me!!

Sorry...but you are right.

I shall disappear until 330.

As it stands, I have nothing more to add.

Thanks.

F*

P.S. I missed you, you old loquacious fart!

Devalue the US dollar!

F*,
LOL!

fl@tulator

http://www.press.co.nz/23/business.htm

The kiwi dollar paused in its slide yesterday, but trading continued to be volatile. The kiwi closed slightly up from Tuesday. However, market participants expect it to resume its fall today.

"It would take a a bit of a miracle to stop it now," Bancorp economist, Stuart Marshall, said. If the Reserve Bank makes no comment today about the level of its monetary conditions index, the fall is likely to be steeper. "

----

Looking for the low spark of high-heeled boys
to stand on my shoulders, yesssssss

ALL
Are these 401 pension plans of which you speak compulsory? Do you get Tax-breaks for $ invested? Why do all our merkan friends seem to have one?

Thanks for your honest tail of wrongly timed gold purchases. If the truth were known you would have spoken for all of us precious metal holders all looking a little foolish for not klicking off the KITCO board and selling our metals and mining shares at least down to a better sleeping level.

I see this board in a few months being mainly dedicated to Y2K problems.

Here are some quotes as of 3 am NY time:
August gold has been in a range between 296 and 291 with 293 last. CNBC report 290.50 as the last Asian gold quote. Remeber 288!!!

Silver has had a 533/529 range with a last at $5.31. NY Comex silver stocks are within 500K oz of a new all time low.

HK has swung back up above 8000.

Full Moon bottom??? Sure ain't a top.

Hang in there gold bulls there are alot of shorts out feeling pretty smug. You know what happens then - I know becasue I felt a little that way after a one day rally in gold. Gosh it was great. Then the roof fell in , again.

I'm going out on a limb - I bet we close higher today.

401k's.... IRA....all pretax "savings"...assume you "save" to a ripe old age .. THEN get taxed @ a lower rate. Ha! Good day from the chilly Midwest !

Eddie
G'day amigo
so 401K contribution deducted from income before tax? State-sponsored savings? Is there any other employer/state contribution?

I plan to buy PTEN, Patterson energy tomorrow for 10 tree-quarters. Will keep it until July 22. Should be good for 35% at least Studio R had it at 40.00

bEFORE FINAL UP MOVE TO 9600.Pattern has shown up at the hairiest times in market history. Lot of sideline money out there now.

Imployer contibutions in the 401s can equal your contributions depending on length of service,etc. Big bucks involved... which is fueling the bubble.... where else can you get returns like that? there will be a lot of unhappiness ...average Joe six pack is ignorant to any dangers and is buying into the bullshiP with both hands.

Damn...you guys are taking hit from all over http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Some may have missed the biggest market in history,. I would not feel too smug sitting on PM losses. The good part is about to unfold for gold and oil. I believe oil will show the way for commodities increases later on in fall. Gold is so cheap that a small move could heal jangled nerves, lay foundation for fortune.

Not much MEST today, so briefly. STOP. 10-15% at what value??? Think about it.
F-rat@

bloopy
Now, if you were a gold holdin' antipodean, you'd see the wonder of gold.
My core gold holding purchased at NZ$508-525, now over NZ$610. Just dumb luck. I was too irrational to get exuberant before 1998.

Just dunno when my US$ are gonna come back home. It depends on dreams and hallucinations. And checking the kitco watering-hole.

Eddie
401K sounds like a state-sponsored nightmare. SUch anomalies, contrary to a free market will be corrected with vengeance, when corrrections are the order of the day. How come our merkan libertarian friends aren't down on this socialist engineering? Is it because of "turning Nelson's eye" when "I spy self interest?"

How different is it from the dole?

Wetgold
your contrarian Y2K posts are particularly cherished.

Gagnrad
I am now trying to plan my "fad money" dart into the fray a little earlier than krismuss, actually for NZ's father's day. When is Father's day in merka, please.

On "GOLD"!!! Are we hafving fun yet?
Looks like the party is just getting rolling.
G'day to the "Mates, down below!

As usual, you are correct about a future nightmare. Libertarians here, ( I among them ) are screeming at the wind. No one wants to hear "nasty things" so, we are out voted and out shouted. WE ( I ) will continue to warn others as best I can. I guess I still believe that the founders of this country had a pretty good idea, back then.

The dole is in the hole and some local governments are weaning a lot of the abusers off so that the truely needy can be cared for. These people will be really hurt and desperate when the compost hits the fan.

I hate the state of mind I'm in, but a lot of us are tired of beating our heads against a wall.

Gotta Go... Go Gold...bbl

Recent quotes: HK at 7979, S&Ps off 600, all the currencies are down with the exception of the Swiss and Ruble.

GOLD at 294 comex ( 291 critical )
SILVER - UP!!! on its highs at $5.335

If we are headed for a global meltdown and recession, which I don't doubt for a minute, how can gold and oil prices go anywhere but down? How will oil prices rise when demand will drop and countries like Indonesia and Russia will produce at any price. How will gold rise when everyone's too broke to buy any? I need some help here please.

Even if I sound like a die-hard-goldbug:
The Duisenberg statement is a political one, not an economical one. In fact he didnt say nothing - as expected.

fresh@viagra

Cyanide too fast for Disney. Suggest showing him old Mickey Mouse cartoons till he passes out.

South African gold were down almost 5% before recovering to be down 4.5%.

How can anybody be long gold with all the deflation, depression, economic implosion going on all around the world? DAMN good question!! Probably because it's going up in so many world currencies the odds favor the dollar /gold ratio favoring gold, too, and probably in an explosive way.

Did I answer that question correctly fellow Kitcoites?

Fred
Is this "Viagra as a recreational drug"?

thanks eddie

Was throwing the bones of a dead cat in the light of yesterdays full-moon. So here are the results of my computer-supported short-term predictions:

1. ) Gold down to the mid 280s ( in spirituall accordance with Sir John D`s gifted son ) .
2. ) SnP tanking hard till friday.
3. ) Time to fertilize the lime.
4. ) Soccer world championship: Austria-Camerone ( Thu ) 2:1.
5. ) Time to sing the blues for OZD and NZD-holders like me.

To be continued, as soon as Ive found all of the bones again ( throwed them a bit too far ) .

Dunno. Tried to smoke it. Didnt burn.

True. And like Gary Powers hanging from the cockpit of his U-2 looking down on mother Russia, The Diz wouldn't bite down on his little cyanide capsule. He'd rather wait and try to talk the Russkies to death. "Comrade! Comrade!"

GOLD IS UP!!!!! CNBC ticker reports gold up 60 cents
SILVER IS UP 3 CENTS.

Money starting to flow out of equities into the metals!!!!

My gosh I forgot that's another reason why gold might go up...

This may not last wrong so I"m going to go look in the mirror and look real smug.

REPEAT: GOLD AND SILVER NOW UPPPPPPPPP

jims
go to the top of the class. This is a merkan dollar bubble, Now, who, what, where's the prick to bust it?

Real estate with a mortgage gotta be a snare-pit.


get, get, get outta debt

To all
When I mentioned that I thought Homestake was rather
vulnerable .. I noticed a few cries of disbelief ..
Lets take a look .
Homestake .. 1997 revenue = 660 mil $
1997 loss = 169 mil $
1997 non recurring loss = 199 Mil $
Thus avg cost for year corrected
for non recurring loss = 630 mil$
on production of 1717 thou oz
or 367 $/oz
Mining Journal shows 17 mill oz
proved and probable reserves ..
At 10.5 a share on 147 mil shares
makes market cap pf 1545 mil $
or $91 per oz of proved and probable
reserves

Lets compare with Harmony ..1st quarter 1998

revenue = 47924 RD/kg
profit ( a.t ) = 33,147,000 on
5923 kg produced or 5596 Rd/kg
.. before Capex ..
Capex = 4,992,000 or 843 Rd/kg
47924 - 5923 + 843 = 42543 Rd/kg
Thus avg costs per kg after capex =42,543 Rd
= 1323 RD/oz @32.15
= 259 $/oz @ 5.1 Rd/$

Looking at reserves .. Harmony has
13.1 mill proved and probable reserves.
.. at 4.25$/share on 49 mil shares
.. we get 16 $/oz for proved and
probable versus 91 for homestake ..
Moreover averge costs for Harmony
are over 100 $ less that Homestake.

If Homestake fell level to Harmony
on costs of reserve basis ( ignoring
harmony's cost advantage ) .. I get
a price of under 2 $ a share..

..in the shape of a 'W'?

FWIW--heavyweight Aussie gold shares acted rather well today. While the all ords was tanking the heavyweight golds finished on a high note with late afternoon strength. You fancy-shmancy chartists out there would call this an "I don't believe the Euro 10-15% bullshirt" reversal. Aussie gold is near the $500 level. The big boys jumped in on the bad news late today. The commercials are accumulating at these prices. The little wannabee companies took a hammering. All the little apples are getting shaken ( shook, shooken, what the hell ) out of the tree. I spent the day picking up crumbs beneath the apple tree. Will find out in a few days if they've got worms in 'em.

For Aurophile ..
Thanks for kind words .. BACKING is cosmetic and the
kind of thing politicians specialize in.. Convertabily
to gold is something they cant deal with .. Other
forms of convertability should be investigated ..
.. start with ruble .. suggest 100,000 convertable to
one Natasha .. 100 convertable to one Yeltzin .. and
so on .. and so on..

For Zeke and Bloomer
Its a real plasure to meet people
from other cultures ..

Anyone surprised yet?

Very poor day for the A$ today.
Somebody may have posted this already, but I suspect
the Gold weakness during the Asian day was helped by
Oz gold producers selling Gold forward basis A$500 spot.
As A$ fell to 0.5815 ( NB 1986 low was 0.5715 ) , forward
sales could be filled and this dragged down US$ gold
through the day.
Now A$ doing the dead cat bounce to 0.5873.
A$ Gold at $500.50. ( US$294.00 / 0.5873 )

Thurs US metals trading should be interesting, along with
A$ spot tonight and tom.
Happy Trading !

I LOOK SO GOOD SMUG

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

HighRise

crusty
right with you on convertibility to gold. I have a question for you and for

ALL :

"What think you on convertibility to gold AND silver? Where do you stand on BIMETALLISM?"

One should always serve red wine with silver and white wine with gold.

Not everyone is too broke to buy any. The world's wealth does not
disappear. True, demand for oil goes down and the price for a
barrel of it can not be expected to recover until either the
world economy recovers or supply is curtailed.

Gold on the other hand, is a different kind of animal and we do
not expect a lot of price increase due to buying from the starving
masses, rather buying from those holding the redistributed wealth
in an overabundace of paper. Flight buying, if you will.

zeke
you got my attention.

but do you always swap silver for gold?

One is chemically reactive and can disappear. The other timeless and ageless. How does one mix these things?

``If Japan can't get its act together then all bets are off,'' said one economist at a Western embassy in Beijing, referring to China's repeated pledges not to devalue its currency in response to the Southeast Asian financial crisis.

``The Chinese could devalue and shift the blame to the Japanese,'' said the economist, who declined to be identified.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/china_yuan_1.html

Wednesday June 10, 5:46 am Eastern Time

ASIA MARKETS SUMMARY-China, weak yen spark shivers

CURRENCIES.....

Change on the day... WED 10 0931.GMT.

Currency....Latest.......Prev Close.....Pct Move

Ringgit.....3.98...........3.95..........-0.63%

Rupiah......12900.00.......11750.00......-8.91%

Baht........43.00..........42.95.........-0.12%

Peso........39.80..........39.15.........-1.63%

Sing Dlr....1.72...........1.72..........-0.23%

Taiwan Dlr..34.90..........34.72.........-0.50%

Korean Won..1392.50........1393.00........0.04% ..... .....

Change since start of Asia crisis.....

Currency....Latest.......July '97.......Pct Move

Ringgit.....3.98...........2.52.........-36.60%

Rupiah......12900.00.......2432.00......-81.15%

Baht........43.00..........25.90........-39.77%

Peso........39.80..........26.50........-33.42%

Sing Dlr....1.72...........1.43.........-17.05%

Taiwan Dlr..34.90..........27.75........-20.48%

Korean Won..1392.50........842.00.......-39.53% ************************************************* STOCK MARKETS.....

Change on the day... WED 10 0932.GMT.

Market......Current....Prev Close...Pct Move

Indonesia....408.08......411.07......-0.7%

Malaysia.....489.86......505.64......-3.1%

Philippines..1917.87.....1924.49.....-0.3%

Singapore....1067.81.....1117.21.....-4.4%

Thailand.....292.10......308.25......-5.2%

Hong Kong....7979.37.....8391.46.....-4.9%

Japan........15339.26....15530.17....-1.2%

Taiwan.......7223.13.....7455.63.....-3.1%

Korea........324.54......339.22......-4.3% ..... .....

Change since start of Asia crisis.....

Market......Current....July '97.......Pct Move

Indonesia....408.08......731.00......-44.2%

Malaysia.....489.86......1230.00.....-60.2%

Philippines..1917.87.....2815.00.....-31.9%

Singapore....1067.81.....1981.00.....-46.1%

Thailand.....292.10......569.00......-48.7%

Hong Kong....7979.37....15055.00.....-47.0%

Japan........15339.26....20000.00....-23.3%

Taiwan.......7223.13.....9000.00.....-19.7%

Korea........324.54......770.00......-57.9%

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/asia_marke_1.html


Motorola to layoff 10,000+
Boeing to reduce production of airliners 30% another 10,000+ layoffs

HighRise

It is a well thought through statement. There is no percentage exhuberance in it. It is modest and realistic.

Think how ridiculous it would have been if Duisenberg would have announced 50% gold backing for the EURO. These guys have alltogether only a maximum of 10,000 tons of gold. Probably only between 8,000 and 9,000.

But let's assume: 10,000 and 50% gold backing. How many EUROs could be created based on that?
At todays gold prices in US% 10,000 tons of gold equates to $100 billion.
So, how much EUROs could be created? The equivalent of US$200 billion.
Wouldn't that be ridiculous? For such a big economic area?

Now, the minimum backing of 10%, which is promised, gives them at least the opportunity to create EUROs in the equivalent of US$ONE trillion.
That's also not much in the long run. But it is a starting point which doesn't crash the golbal financial system right away. It is realistic.

But now think: what if they must create more EUROs in the future? They cannot limitless increase their gold hoard. That doesn't go. So, the only way to create more EUROs in the future will be to increase the gold price. The minimum promise of 10% gold backing must be kept.

What else can be the solution? To create more EUROs must mean automatically to increase the gold price.

The announcement from Herr Duisenberg yesterday is an implicit guarantee for a defined floor for the gold price and a mechanism for rising the gold price in the future. More EUROs will automatically mean: higher gold price. Because there is not a lot more gold to back the EURO.

No matter what "the market" does these days. That's how it is. And the market will very quickly understand this underlying logic. I bet on it!

Alberich the Dwarf

But I have enriched many lives with copies of
'The Richest Man in Babylon', by George S Clason.

I have three copies at home and have given away lots of copies to young adults.
Not for me a gold coin rather the knowledge of money.

Maybe I should go and read it again.
Perhaps???

Are my eyes deceiving me...or is gold truly UP?

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/asiaweek/current/issue/ed1.html

One should alway consume copious quantities of both red and white wine - it's good for ones health.

One should also buy gold and silver with both hands outstretched.

But one must also remember that tomorrow we will awake again.

Gollum
Isn't that what happens after the redistribution?
Not before the act???

S&P -5.5
Nasdaq -9.5
+/-
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
and
FTSE -70

HighRise

PS: Of course the Dow will probably gain 100 pts today. ie. on CNBC, S&P @ -4.5 now?
General Electric ya know, and Goldman Sachs their partner still says Dow 10,000, or there-a-bouts by year end. They really can make elephants fly.

My urgent question is this: At what point ( considering Y2k, etc. ) does one consider pulling it all, that is pulling all paper from banks and liquidating all brokerage accounts? What should be the mix of physical gold and silver in the larder?

Away to the tractoring--the North Forty becons.

keep the POG below $300. This timely announcement yesterday by
Wm Duisenberg, president of the new ECB that he had a consensus
from member CBs that gold would be used for 10 to 15% of the
reserves to back the EURO was interpreted as a negative for
gold by the market AS INTENDED. Gold had just passed $300 as
this negative statement was issued, and down she went, AS INTENDED!

Would someone out there please explain to this poor stupid geologist
why the ECB would want to keep the POG below $300? If we are actually
in the midst of a EURO-DOLLAR currency war, how does keeping the POG
down help the EURO?

for salty ..
I prefer it to bisexuality ..

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/dlr_yen_at_2.html

But how will this affect the unemployment figures?

Motorola to layoff 10,000+
Boeing to reduce production of airliners 30% another 10,000+ layoffs

Good morning. Nice surprise, hunh?

sharefin
as have I with Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds...
want one? email me your physical, buddie.

btw
brand new advertisement on tellie, great computer graphics, little black lambs cavorting in a paddock. Well these LBLs are gymnasts, they leap. they bound, they leap-frog, why... they stand on their fore-legs and walk like a poodle....they even form LBL pyramids..that's right, a pyramid ( find the fibo and lucas numbers in a pyramid ) little black lambs form a purmid.standing on their forelegs..... and you know why? Cos they eat MARMITE.....

Marmite and lettuce sandwich anyone?

Now, keep your eyes on the day markets.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/asahi_life_1.html

crusty
got it. Not ac/dc, rather ag/au

Great call yesterday. Congratulations.

Good Morning...Yes,a VERY nice surprise...looks as if the yellow metal is becoming very volatile!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/markets_pr_1.html

With the move towards EURO, the traditional backing-device for U-ropeans, the DEM, was transferred bigtime into USDs. Depending on their trade-volume with Germany, some nations kept up to 75% of their backings in DEM.
Now, youve got backings all over the E- CBs strongly denominated in USD with the USD at a price in terms of european currencies that has room to move in just one direction: South.
Maybe surpressing the POG is a kind of antagonistic strategy, not to start the EURO with an overvalued USD ( which is important to be overvalued right now, to keep the european balance-sheets somewhat together ) and a POG around his fair value or above, nest pas?

Maybe.

There are two reasons I can think of: 1 ) The Euro can not appear to be challenging the almighty US$ at this time. If it did, the US might act to assure the Euros demise. Gold just happening to rise later this year and thereby making the Euro much stronger in the eyes of all in the world save the US will not be viewed as an act of currency war. 2 ) Accumulate more gold and set the market up for the rise in gold when gold is recalled from leasing. Call in 8,000 tons ( or whatever amount is leased out ) of gold at one time and what do you get...methinks an increase in the price.

Just my opinions but Ive thought this since last year and events seem to be unfolding right in line with this thinking. The real problem is trying to pick a time to invest in the mining shares. Physical gold is easy...anything around $290.

Just my thoughts.

Tom

U.S. Inflation higher than CPI-NY Fed

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980609/interview__6.html

FOCUS-Inflation looms as world economy expands-BIS

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980608/economy_bi_2.html

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will describe the U.S.economy as caught in the crosscurrents of international worries and domestic inflation dangers in key testimony Wednesday, analysts say.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980609/business/stories/fed_1.html

For Carl ..
I take no credit .. Call was from
number one son .. I only take credit
for genetic contribution and listening
to what he says ..

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

It is most heartening to see pog fighting back from below 290 after absorbing hit after hit from bad news.

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/International/jboi9823.htm
Canada, Japan, Embedded Systems, and More

on Tuesday about 6 am. If most Euro member CBs have up to 75% of their
reserves in US$ ( France and Germany have mostly gold, but the rest have much less ) then it makes sense to beat down gold if that keeps up the value of the inflated US buck. It follows then, that the ECB, with a
10% backing in gold, may have 70 to 80% of the rest of the backing in
US dollars. In future then, it may still be in the interest of
the ECB to keep the POG down, if that means keeping the value of
their dollar reserves up, at least until they issue more EUROs,
at which point they merely let the POG rise, and issue more paper EUROS.

My only possible conclusion is that gold lease rates stay down, and the
gold carry trade continues as the main instrument in the strategy to
depress the spot gold price. This sets up an interesting scenario if
the Euopeans and Americans both have to drop interest rates to reinflate to counter a market blow off and subsequent deflation. What happens to
the gold carry trade then?....... It disapperars and gold explodes.

You must learn to read between my lines and think of what I don't say......I kept some Patterson, just in case, but the bulk of my position was sold for gold and other things way back. Again, and for the last time, a brother-in-law, "watches" this one quite closely.

The only non-gold bet I have right now is far-out crude futures....2001-2003...it is curious to note, that these have gone up since their purchase of a few weeks back.

GM

I will never own a US land driller again......environmental concerns, primarily ( but also the cost of finding and producing domestic reserves ) . US is non-competitive in this arena...old, drilled-out and paper-fat. As to the "corporate-shield-penetrating" environmental liabilities, I'm through playing russian roulette....too much to lose...want to be IN BARS, not BEHIND BARS!

It may get "environmentally" worse. Gore will be our man if the market holds together.

What happened over night? gold killed then revived.

To all ..
Dmark is trading just a tad ABOVE its
30 day AMA.. A close above it and a move
up in dollars could be nasty ... very
nasty ..

To all ..
Dmark is trading just a tad ABOVE its
30 day AMA.. A close above it and a move
up in dollars could be nasty ... very
nasty ..

I too asked the same question.....no answers ( yet ) ..but it is a nice surprise... is it not?

I thought NZ got rid of socialism 10 years ago. What could be the cause?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/markets_pr_1.html

``Non-plussed is what I am,'' said one London dealer in response to a question about gold's recovery on Wednesday.

Having built up to the reserves figure for months, the gold market had now refocused on what it says is the real barometer of future gold sales intentions, namely the autonomy allowed to the 11 national central banks in at the euro single currency's launch.

``I don't think the percentage figure is important now, it's the degree of autonomy which banks get over the fate of their gold,'' said the dealer.

South Africa Johannesburg All Share
^JSAI
8:02AM
7092.4
-293.9
-3.98%

HighRise

to all
I hope the examples on Homestake versus Harmony were
clear enough for a few of you to follow..
The numbers are meaningful .. over the 3 month period
ending april Harmony rose 95 % versus Homestake's
rise of 24 %. At present Harmony is still up almost
50 % while Homestake is up maybe 10 % from the end
January base point.

gold down 4 bucks, then flat a few minutes later. I couldn't believe it. Will wonders never cease?

for HIGH RISE ..
Entire market was whacked .. Prime
lending rate raised by 2 %..

Prices seem to vary depending on site. The age of technogogy marches on. I agree with the y2k pessimists. If in truth we are down 4 bucks we is in trouble!

I know I look at the gold "opportunity" in a far-too simplistic manner. I observe an aged phenomenon. The gold is being gathered up by the guys with the most gold ( and whips ) . One day, the mighty men-of-gold will allow the goldless serfs to have a little back in exchange for good, honorable work...but at a slightly higher price. I believe Billie Holiday sang of this procedure.....and later, Blood Sweat & Tears.

Back to unchanged - well it was great while it lasted - that feeling smug that I had and owned an appreicating asset. These joys don't come along very often so it was treasured.

May be we'll still finish up a smidge on the day so I can put back on that smug look the shorts have so long enjoyed.

US Debt 5+ Trillion
5 Trillion in Mutual Funds
Mutual fund cash reserves at record lows like 72
Americans savings at lowest level since 72
President in trouble like 72

Anybody remember 73, I do!
I started my business in 72

CNBC is testing their ticker and software to see if it can go to Dow 10,000. OK?

HighRise

Could I get some opinions please? Embarrassed to say I am already in DBRSY @ 25.

CBS now showing gold up $1.70 so who to believe.

Who knows?

With 10% to 15% euro gold backing and the banks allowed to do as they wish with gold reserves ( if that ends up the case ) IMHO gold is going to stay out of favor

RSA Prime up 2%!!! Inflation?

The CPI now understates inflation according to an interview with a high Fed official posted on SI. Remember they have been saying for years that the CPI understates inflation. Especially when computing COLA increases for social security recipients..

Sounds like an effort to build a a case for tighter monetary policy.

The CPI now understates inflation according to an interview with a high Fed official posted on SI. Remember they have been saying for years that the CPI OVERSTATES inflation. Especially when computing COLA increases for social security recipients..

Sounds like an effort to build a a case for tighter monetary policy.

I suspect it will take some major event to reverse the trend for gold, in spite of what my friend George Cole says. And my bet is 10% backing on the euro, if any. But I do not necessarily think the Europeon CBs will be selling large amounts. Insurance you know.

I think I herd of another interest rate increase this am, this will put pressure on the US rates, maybe? There could be a liquidity ( real money ) problem out there and a competition may be developing for the remaining available funds.

The US polititians, just passed and signed the transportation bill. This is an attempt to pump money into the US economy.

By the way you should see how much Cleveland OH will get - a bunch. Cleveland is a major political power source for both Republicans and Dems. That is were Clinton got his draft final deferment - use to be Rockefeller Standard Oil Center now BP Oil.

HighRise

I'll be with a brother-in-law tonight that sits on the Kansas City FRB....I'll see if he has the latest on their inflation analysis...monetary tightening, etc.

The CBS quotes I get are 45 minutes old . . maybe you have something fresher Goldbug, if not we're both looking at history. This stuff could plunge through 288 basis cash and send off enough sell signals to be heard in the depths of the Marianas Trench only to be raced back up again to be clobbered again.

We on the night shift saw this stuff back from the depths of depression perhps those of you on days will watch it through to a triumph finish.

Go Gold , go silver and little palladium, too.

You can watch August gold live at:
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
GCQ8 and 'All Sessions'

It is volatile.

See my 6:55 for the whole story on the CPI.

The number of inflation stories increased by about 3x this morning. Good for POG even if it's just spin.

From DTN:7:24am

"Liberal Democractic Party wants to revalue yen at roughly one yen to the dollar".....Kyodo News Service reported

" The goal of the purposed revaluation would make the yen more competitive as an international currency with the dollar and Europe's newly created Euro, Kyodo said."

THIS SITE HAS PRETTY RECENT QUOTES FOR GOLD AND QUITE A FEW OTHER THINGS AS WELL.IT SHOWS AUGUST GOLD UP 20 CENTS A FEW MINUTES AGO.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

Okie Crude this a.m........$11.25/bbl

Okie Sour Crude= $8.25/bbl

Current total crude production in Ok. is LESS than every year's production going back to 1914.

STUDIO.R ( @Lord Disney......... )
RSA Prime up 2%!!! Inflation?

Could we be finally seeing tight money? The Fed has been pulling money out of circulation and the mutual Funds cash is low. Just like 1973 tight money?

Asia no real money anywhere.

Japan total inaction 1/2% interest rate? Yen in the Toilet - no one wants it, they want Real Money!

Russia looking for real money - getting very little!

Clinton and Korea no real money offered " they are on their own"

Could it be that the IMF and G7 have no more "Real Money" to give?

Is the US$ "Real Money"? Compared to other currencies, I guess it is. Compared to Gold, well, I am not to sure. May be this is why the world has to keep Gold down.

We may be seeing the beginning of Inflation driven by a lack of liquidity. All countries have to stimulate their economies, how do they do this with out any "Real Money" Can they just start printing money? This would create HyperInflation. The US Fed does not seem to be willing to print anymore money for the rest of the World - they are worried about hyperinflation also. A very difficult situation to say the least.

What was the relative value of the US$ in 1974 compared to it's value in the 60's or the 80's.?

There was $70 Trillion in derivatives last fall, have they been cleared?

HighRise

So far, they haven't issued any Euros, so why make them expensive. It seems more logical to keep the Dollar up for a while until they can exchange their expensive Dollar reserves for their Euros. Even after they start issuing the Euros, they probably will not appear all at once, but rather be fed into the system gradually. Once they exchange their expensive Dollars for Euros, they can concentrate on making sure the Euros stay firm. Therefore, I agree with you that the announcement was reasonable.
Also, the Dollar is bound to receive competition once they start using Euros. With 380 million people in Europe being sold on the idea to use Euros, many of them are bound to be convinced that it would be better to own at least some of them instead of the overvalued and bloated Dollar. Sometime between now and then, the stock market is likely to weaken substantially and PMs and tangibles are likely to strengthen.
Lastly, what if the oil producing countries start demanding some ( or a lot ) of their payments in Euros? If the Euro is firm, isn't it likely that they will at least diversify? Then what? There was someone called ANOTHER who used to post here who talked about Gold in terms of Oil. I suspect he has a point.

Gold ( CMX )
Aug
295.7
297.1
290.8
296.3
+0.8
6/10/98
5:40 295.3
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

NEW YORK
SPOT PRICE
June 10, 1998
08:53AM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents

Bid
Ask Change Low High
GOLD
294.50
295.20
+1.10
+0.37%
295.20
http://www.kitco.ca/gold.live.html

HighRise

CNBC August Gold
$296.60 +1.10

HighRise

Ok, help me out here. I heard this song the other day and can't get it out of my head. It's called something like ?"Drum Thumping"? by a band with an unspellable name - ?Jubbawugga?. What's this got to do with Gold? I think it would make a great theme song for us. The words go "They knock me down, I get up...They knock me down, I get up, etc. and then they sing about drinking vodka, gin whiskey, etc while the refrain goes "Pissing the night awaaayyyy."
If you know the song and band, please post so I can go buy the blasted CD to play on days like yesterday. Thanks

30Yr Bond
5.75%
Appears to be no liquidity problem here?
Interest rate has been falling.

Could it be that the US Treasuries are soaking up the remaining liquidity?

HighRise

According to DBC.

Great Thinking! Global commerce deteriorating.....recessionary affliction spreading, supply of consumables will diminish due to lack of industrial capital funding....price of goods and money to trend upward.

I have to agree with Sharefin about possible drop in POG. I used to work with margin dept and although assuming all gold is cash a/c, If the market tanks seriously, the need for cash and fear will temporarily demoralize the retail gold market- lots of dislocation here. What say?

i was listening to SBS tv news tonight,some bloke reckons the world bank is floging dodgy bonds through front men,offering big returns,selling them through church groups.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/china_yuan_2.html

Big numbers, too...not just fractional declines. Wow. This day will prove the existence of the PPT, or their switch to a laissez-faire policy. Which will it be, UP or DOWN at day's end? The betting window is open.
Here is the world summary...
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Hedgehop...that dad-blamed DBC gives crazy quotes...sometimes it is yesterday's quotes, then reload and get today's...then reload and get yesterdays again. It is "royally" screwed up sometimes....sure wish KITCO frames would work...go gold

I forgot about that. This came out a couple of months ago, that the Asia economies have not been able to flood the US and the rest of the world with cheap goods - they can't get the funding to produce!

Therefore, that would imply the only goods available are going to be more expensive?

Companies like NIKE are having to actually go into Asian plants and finance them to get goods out. This would appear to be risky business.

I still feel the greatest danger out there is the unreported derivatives. Many more Institutions and Companies are trading in these instruments then we are aware of right now.

HighRise

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/kenanga_ro_1.html

All:

About the only definitive thing one can say about the gold market is that it is moving fast and doesn't look like it will slow down any time soon.

There is apparently a large bit of buying coming out of the Swiss banks. Rumors have put the size as high as 2 million ounces. The story goes that the purchase was yanked as soon as the ECB 'announcement' came out yesterday. Since the rest of the dealing community was on the buying they too were stocking up a little. Combine this with a little fund short covering and that was Monday's activity on the upside. Had we not had the ECB news, it is likely that yesterday would have had some upside fireworks. Fastforward to last night and there was a very large bit of Aussie producer selling. Once that abated it appeared that the Swiss once again took the bit and that brings us up to the present.

With a lot of the smaller funds being whipped out one way or the other over the last 36 hours, there is a kind of vacuum in the market. This is allowing the price to move fast in either direction. Logic ( a dangerous word in these markets ) would dictate that this high energy is going to bump into something significant at one end of the range or the other. Since we have bumped into the downside last night and nothing happened other than a reversal we may be getting ready to bump the upside. Should be get up to the 298 299 level in spot there may be some very large buy stops hanging in the marketplace.

Silver is very quiet, and appears to be just watching the gold. J. Aron who had been the big buyer from 5 - 535 was a good seller yesterday toward the highs. My bullish interpretation is that he has more buying to do and was happy to take a few dollars of profit before continuing on his merry accumulative way. In support of this scenario was a decent buy order on the close attributed to him.

On the macro side of things the most import one is the imperviousness of the gold price to the second wave collapse in Asia. Even though the currencies are once again being pounded, gold in not having any of it. This is a very big difference from last fall ( SPI ) . It is likely we have reached the point where the low $US and DM price for gold are more important on the demand side of the equation that the higher price in SE Asia currencies. The Asian demand can only go to zero, and they can only sell what they have. After that, they are just spectators. As many here have recounted, demand for gold in the West appears to be rising strongly, if the annecdotal stories of coin backlog are to be believed.

If there is to be a bull market in dollar gold terms it will surely be aided by a drop in the dollar against other currencies as the tide of dollar bullishness reverses due to untenable changes in the current account deficit. This part of the game will probably be AFTER the initial go, and will serve to validate the initial price action rather than to cause it. This market may be similar to 86 where everyone got short gold because of the oil price collapse, only to see it rally 70 bucks virtually overnight.

With the whole world short gold, and the price no longer capitulating in the face of all the stories that have worked so well in the past, it won't take much to light the fuse. When it goes, the first move out will be fast and furious. Hope to see you all there.

chumbawumba ( chumbawamba? )

the song is "tub thumping"

if you're interested in the .mp3, leave me a note ; )

The fog is lazily wafting off the brim of the harborthe SUN driftspreparations more revel appears on the distant horizonMOLSON ( next door neighbor four legged friend, only fear in life is the foul Camdesuss. ) have at it ladwe must make ready and I am not sure if I have the recipe!!!

In HONOR of STUDIO_R, today a full 6ft tall cutout ( black and white of course ) of BUCKWHEAT shall stand inside the fencethe naming ceremony shall be laterTHE OFFICIAL OPENING OF THE OTAY CORRAL yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE HAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

GOLD AND SILVER falling from the leaves like morning dewLife is so far better than goodit is scrumptious...

and on the wall, a twelve string guitar in the hands of a MASTER...

Now let's try to hold the sentiment down this time, ok?

Story
Search Home
Currency swings burnish gold and silver
Our Mumbai Bureau
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MUMBAI 9 JUNE
GOLD and silver prices shot up in the local market today following the sharp depreciation in the value of the rupee and firm overseas advices.
The price of 10-tola gold bar ( gold biscuit ) jumped Rs 800 overnight to Rs 49,700 and standard mint gold by Rs 70 at Rs 4,230 per 10 gram, while silver ( .999 fineness ) zoomed to Rs 7,865 a kg from Rs 7,600.

The hawala ( dollar rate in unofficial market ) has also nominally gone up to Rs 43 from Rs 42.50. Market sentiment was further aided by the gold price jump in London to $297.70 an ounce from $291.75 yesterday and silver to $5.50 an ounce from $5.27. The landed cost of gold at today's international price works out to Rs 50,300 per 10-tola bar and silver at Rs 8,050 per kg.

BY 10:30 this a.m. or I send the MASTIFFs...for today is the day you listen to Leo...ENJOY!...I know you will............................

Last fall I saw only one news report stating that finally Asia had agreed to allow foreign Cos. to have ownership in Asian Cos.

This was the major accomplishment achieved by the Asian collapse.

Many US and European Cos.have been moving into Asia over the last few months. Makes good sense, as I heard one guy say "If they were a good buy at a buck, they have to be a better for a dime."

I guess one could also wonder, how much of this is also self defense, trying to preserve what they have left of their original investments?

By the way I got a credit card invitation yesterday - 3.9% WOW! What does this mean?
1. Plenty of liquidity or available cash?
2. They can't find solid borrowers?
3. No one wants the money? NOPE
4. Credit Market totally saturated - the consumer is eyeball high in debt and cn not take on anymore? Probably
5. Banks have to keep churning new accounts for positive cash flow and liquidity. They have funny money financial statements.

Later,

HighRise

Many thanks. Do you have a link to the .mp3? All sites found by Lycos search seem to be inoperative.

.

If Gold wasn't up this morning, the Dow would have been down over 100 pts by now

D.A. : Always appreciate your comments. What I think we all fear is a repeat of the gold action from Oct 97, though we have doubts that gold could go lower than say 280/oz. You comments about more major currency trouble in SEAsia without a corresponding collapse of gold is heartening, to say the least. Looks like the gold ( precious metal, that is ) bulls and bears are about equally balanced, and we must watch on the sidelines for the dust to settle. If gold does well, I would guess that silver will d even better as the air clears.
Perhaps this means that there is no more gold to be sold in SEAsia, or perhaps the CB gold loans are a thing of the past. If that rumor about massive Swiss buying of gold is true, that would be heartening indeed.
Thanks again for letting us see through your eyes.

My mail usually arrives 2-3pm. You bet I'll let you know. Again many thanx, Charlie

where you bought these, but I have been having trouble with my computer and email is not working. This is first time I have been able to post in two days. If you are comfortable doing so, could you please post your source. Otherwise, Donald has my snail mail address and I would appreciate brief note from you. TIA for any assistance, in case I get "locked out" again.

*bloodbath*

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi

away...to call 911

onkers ( ! ) ...

with all this chatter about gold today one would think that it was NASB....but it looks ASB to me.........hmmmmmmmmmm ( ? ) .....

You asked why South Africa had to raise interest rates. On June 4, I found a Jeffrey Sachs editorial in the NYTimes, which is no longer on the server. Here's an excerpt I had copied onto Kitco. Looks like S.A. is taking a dose of the famous IMF medicine.

( You can search the NYTimes archives for a $25 fee, if you want the rest of the story. I'm not registered for that. )

"The problem is that the I.M.F. has become the Typhoid Mary of emerging markets, spreading recessions in country after country.

The I.M.F. lends its client governments money to repay foreign investors, with the condition that the government also jack up interest rates, cut the flow of credits to the banking system and close weak banks. The measures are intended to restore investors' confidence. Instead, they kill the economies and further undermine confidence. . . .

In emerging markets all over the world, the drama is repeated. Investors who chased high short-term interest rates with short-term loans in recent years are calling in their loans. In just about every case, the I.M.F. is urging a heroic defense of the currency through draconian interest rate increases, sometimes backed by bailouts, sometimes not.

The monetary medicine is now being applied with I.M.F. moral support in Brazil and South Africa, and with I.M.F. financial support in other parts of Africa, in Russia and throughout Asia."

I am looking for advice/opinions on best form of physical gold and silver for potential future barter. Also seeking names of suppliers for survival type foods with long shelf life. As always, I greatly appreciate the help I receive on this forum.

Jin: Looks like from your post that the Chines Yuan is now devalued closer to 10% on the black market. A more recent Kitco report reveals gold up in India. Any news about India? A market implosion there might be highly significant.

Farfel: What am I on? It is the 'US dollar wave' for the lack of a better term. Each time the currency of another country falls, there will be a 'flight to safety' in the US. This may be the time alluded to by 'you know who' where we should worry about gold and the US dollar going up together -- before the last tent peg falls. Now I understand.

Yes -- I have not lost my sanity -- even if I think the US markets will go up after the current deflationary crisis ends in SEAsia, I have no intention of buying into the general equity markets. But I might buy some gold stocks ( just have gold call options right now -- low risk ) . Just depends on how gold responds to the SEAsian crisis we are in as we speak. But -- most of my money will wait on the sidelines. I still maintain that most gold profits will be made by those who keep their powder dry, and wait till after the US markets really settle. Those baby boomers still don't have a clue what's up -- just yet.

EB: Do you mean gold up or down? The way I read D.A.'s post is that we have good news gold is not down, and an apparent fairly balanced tug of war between gold bears and bulls. It would be interesting if a Swiss group really did buy a boatload of gold. I bet that might be too hot even for Matt Drudge!

Woody, I would own bullion coins for your purposes, Maple leaf is best IMO. By my indications, Gold stocks will probably crash just as hard ( or more ) when the Dow finally capitulates. Derivatives way too volatile and only good for gambling now ( look at palladium recently ) .
Physical will rule at the end of the day.

when one considers what happened in Rhwanda, do you really think there will enough people around to matter whether there is Au, or not? and even if there is, the talent to re-dstibute wealth/goods might not be there.

In Rhwanda, the only people smart enough to boil water and go into the forbidden nat'l forest to find food was a few ignorant farmers, the rest lay down and died.

I'm still waiting on replies, but here are some URL,s and emails.
US hazard map- http://gldage.cr.usgs.gov/eq/ 75 - 95 background - http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us.html Weekly http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/current/usa.html Hazards + world- http://gldage.cr.usgs.gov/eq/os Around the world- http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/98_EVENTS/98_EVENTS.html Parameters & significant info- http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/current_seismicity.shtml Europe-Belarus- http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/station_book/Belarus_REGION.html More when I get it+ comments. Any questions or my missed typing, let me know. Cheers

Via the WorldNet Daily web site ( http://www.worldnetdaily.com/ ) JOHN CRUDELE latest says John Williams has determined that the jobs numbers posted each month are lies! damn lies! See it at:

http://www.nypostonline.com/060898/business/2333.htm

Motorola will lay off 15,000 BUT,

2/3 of the lay-off will be in S.E. ASIA

By the time the shouting starts, the redistribution has already taken
place. It's kind of like getting your pocket picked. It was all over
before you ever really knew it happened.

Take the equities markets for example. Billons of dollar have gone to
pay for stocks. The equites holders think they have something. They even
hope their wealth will appreciate. But the billons are no longer in their
pockets.

The redistributed billions are still hanging around. They didn't just
disappear. They just aren't where you think they are.

The holder of these billons are not eager to have their own pockets
picked. And THEY aer sophisticated enough to know how these shell
games work.

The people who have had their pockets picked are not going to be doing
any gold buying. They'll be lucky if they can do gold buying. So one
who holds gold is basically hoping the sophisticated pocket pickers
are going to want to move at least some of their holdings out of paper.
The game starts when the music stops, and the music stops when the
dollar stops going up.





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More Erdman:
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Words of warning
By Paul E. Erdman, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 04:51 PM June 09, 1998

SAN FRANCISCO ( CBS.MW ) -- The Bank for International Settlements, located in Basel, Switzerland, is the central bank of central banks.

It is there where the key central bankers of the world gather each month to coordinate their monetary policies.

Currencies are always a key point of discussion since changes there often trigger chains of events of major proportions. Thus it was the collapse of the Thai baht last July that set off the subsequent financial collapse of all of SouthEast Asia.

Its annual report which summarizes the current thinking of that institution is always read cover to cover by the people running our monetary world. The 1998 report came out this week. And what it says about the dollar and our economic future is worth paying attention to.

Strong dollar

It points out that the Asian crisis has led to a significant rise of the dollar, and a drop in the price of imports."Without the fall of import prices, the annual rise in producer prices in the US could have been about 1 1/2 percent higher, and that of consumer goods prices almost 1 point lower."

As a result of such low inflation, "interest rates in the United States have been kept lower than would otherwise have been possible." But "the appreciation of the US dollar and the fall of import prices are clearly of only a temporary nature."

Why? Because "widening trade deficits will feed back to the exchange rate, implying that the deflationary gains from this would also have to be surrendered."

Or put another way, the Fed would finally have to begin to move up rates.

Result: "Asset levels could prove unsustainable should inflationary pressure and interest rates move upwards." And what will be the warning signal that all this is about to happen?

"The first indications will be seen when the dollar simply ceases to rise."

The Oracle of Basel hath spoken.

steve.blizard@eepo.com.au

Hanson claims credit for pork assistance change
http://www.abc.net.au/news/98/06/10/980610_101.htm

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DROPS BELOW 59 U-S CENT MARK
http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-10jun1998-34.htm

Big Japanese investors shun $A
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980610/news/news1.html

Bonds dive on rates fears
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980610/market/markets2.html

Lean times of late for the hedge-fund jackals
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980610/news/news2.html

Yen's seven-year low adds to pressure for weaker Aussie
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980610/world/world1.html

if it comes apart, what people are left, will want seed and the means to plant it, presuming they know how.

Just came!! 11:00, but I live in the boondox. 30 min away from town. That's damn good timing- I never would have believed it except you did it. Much obliged. Rainy as the ocean here, so I'll have a good time this afternoon. Will be back in thouch afterwhile. Thanx again, Charlie

NAMASTE'.........................................................

Highrise: Personal experiences

Credit Market in the USA
Since May 1,1998
Refinance solicitations ( 125% equity..!!? ) $625,000.00
Revolving Credit solicitations $225,000.00

Note: My income is *NOT* huge.
Wife and 15 month old at home.

Now look at this:
Mid may I closed a platinum card account.
Just received a $100.00 check from this company to
re-open the account...only depositable in the account
as a "credit". As Tol1 would say, Hmmmmmmmm.

Subseqently, I have notified Equifax, Experian and Trans-Union
( U.S. credit reporting companies ) that I am "opting-out":
That is, they are not to issue my credit history for
other party-initiated credit solicitations. We shall see...

Gold Bug's POV:
Pessimist: It's bad, real bad. Just can't get any worse...
Optimist: Oh yes it can!

A fascinating tidit.
Last week I related that the Swiss National Bank hit the golden-eagle web site over 20 times. I found that to be extraordinary and complimentary to their web site, but was not quite sure what to make of it, except something was up.
Today our sources told us that the Swiss National Bank bought 10 tonnes of gold the past two days. They are supposed to be sellers, not buyers. The only explanation ( an inside information story if there ever was one ) is that they sold ahead of their own recent announcement ( trying to increase their return on gold ) and yesterday's EMU gold story. They had to buy back the position at some point and were checking around the internet ( golden-eagle ) for sentiment, expectations, etc.
Bill Murphy

I don't want to mention the company's name on Bart's forum, but call ( 800 ) 638-8869. I use this company frequently, and service is excellent. Delivery ( included in price ) is in about 3 or 4 days by registered snail mail. Price is $155 each, or $305 for two. Let me know if you have problems. Silverdolr@webtv.net

Here's 2 more for the states- http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/states/states/.html>http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/states/states/.html general & specific- http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov OR http://earthquake.usgs.gov -- Most common email is--zirbes@usgs.gov --good luck.

http://www.eurunion.org/magazine/eurospec.htm

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/au_pol/48_3/winterberg.htm

You better send me your email. Mine is cdevoto@abts.net- hurry, Charlie

tolerant1@email.msn.com - MSN pop3 server is acting up.........

Woody_A: I think of precious metal as a more civilized form of barter. In a survival situation Silver and Gold are only good for bartering again. If I have food and need ammo I would rather trade my food directly with somone who has the ammo I want. Otherwise I would have to trade my food for a gold coin ( which may just be gold plated lead or something ) , and then go find somone who has ammo and is interested in my gold coin.

I heard that tools are a good thing to stock up on for survival bartering.

Phisical metal seems handier for the kind of economic colapse that causes local currencies to loose thier value quickly. You can then convert the ever more valuable metal for cash on on the day you are shopping. I was in Brazil when they had 1000% inflation. I kept all my money as US$, then coverted some to Cruzeros once a week to buy grocieries and to have pocket money. PM coins would have worked almost as well.

"Wall Street stocks slip further after Greenspan says Fed
might need to raise rates unless U.S. demand "noticeably"
abates, warns stock prices hard to sustain. Dow off 30 at 9020.
Nasdaq down 14 at 1787. S&P500 off 3.5 at 1115. Long bond
little changed, up 22/32 to yield 7.94 percent."
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

But the market hasn't slipped much. This stock market boil ain't popped that easily. Too much momentum. Nervousness but no fear.
-EJ

consider this, approximately 7 and 1/2 % of the world population is starving, grain reserves have went steadily down for years. World leaders in food supply have asked for years for international treaty to block future building on farm land. For each memeber of the US dept of Ag. there is about 3 farmers. I propose, any serious disruption in the status quo, will result in billions being hungery, and the powers that be, will be on their plates, if they catch them, as they will be of little other value to them. "Never heard of salted wife before, was unaware there was a recipe, now salted bureuocrat, there be a tasty treat indeed."

Volume seems to be low on the Gold Stocks I've looked at. Everyone may be sitting back trying to figure out what the hell is going on with Gold....

Gold is hangimg in very strong, I am sure the shorts are biting their nails at this moment.

EJ: Interesting. And the BIS says the US dollar is 20% overvalued. I think AG is hoping the markets will drop on their own, without any help from him. If AG raises rates a little now, he just makes the dollar stronger. Ir he raises rate alot, he goes down in history as popping the the US markets and precipitating ????

So -- he jawbones, and hopes the markets drop all on their own. If the markets drop, so will the US dollar. But the problem is -- 'flight to safety' from other less stable financial markets will keep flooding to the dollar. So -- if he does nothing, the markets may continue to rally, worsening the bubble, and increasing the chances for inflation. I don't envy AG -- tough choices. I will be impressed if we exscape the 1925-1929 scenario. I think I will keep my day job.

Is that the same Paul Erdman who did time in Suisse for the cocoa scam and later wrote silly spy novels?

Thanks for your thoughts. I suspect you are quite right. I know the smart money will be long gone from the US market before it craters. In the meantime they will keep talking it up while they lighten their loads. As usual, the people who can least afford it will lose.

I know some on this thread are in SA. Would like to have any infor on Anglogold or DeBeers. TIA

Don't the quotes work at this site anymore?

True. And the percentage of the earth's population that is starving
will at some time go much higher. It has to. Populations have grown
and moved more and more increasingly to the cities. The cities are
more nad more dependant on technology and cheap transport. In the
meantime there are fewer and fewer farmers. The farmers who are left
grow more and more dependant on technology and cheap fuel.

This is a finite planet with finite resouces. Agriculural regions do
not shift quickly as climates change. Most of the great changes have
taken place rather rapidly in the last few hundred years and earth's
climates are transient. Eventualy either technology, or cheap fuel, or
financial system will fail or climates change. When it happens it can
happen quickly. More quickly than most expect. Think back to the oil
embargo of the 70's...
or somesuch will fail.

I don't know. It might be interesting to find out.

Got silver?

Another thing to consider, as a sign of the times, they have been tearing down grain elevators for several years now, is this because there is nothing going into them, and nothing is foreseen to go into them?

More and more industries, farming included, are going to just-in-time
inventorying and less on site storage. I wonder if the thing with grain
elevators is an aspect of this. Are there some big warehouses somewhere
where it gets shipped immediately instead of hanging around the growing
areas?

Let us all hope our day jobs keep us.

Don't be concerned that we were unable to follow the internet trail you were on, and didn't find the links. You have certainly not lost any credibility with us. What's interesting is your initial find, and the fact it disappeared.

The web is very fluid. Articles get pulled, or buried, links get shut down. I've read of several such events just recently. The Chicago paper pulled an inflammatory editorial after Rush Limbaugh mentioned it on his show a few days back. This very morning there was a BBC article I was getting for this site, opened a new window and started my message and when I went back, it was gone! Poof! This was on Yeltsin warning that NATO intervention in Kosovo would lead to "destabilization" and was involving other countries. A very toned-down article was there, and I searched over a half hour, unable to recover the initial one.

Did you see Matt Drudge's report on the IDC 8.4 seismic activity this weekend in Belarus or thereabouts? He reports that the IDC web pages shut down 10 minutes after he reported that activity. To all of us trying to follow his links, it looked like a phoney story. But SilverBaron found us an independent report from some Australian quake watcher, who also saw the IDC number, and reported it.

Carry on! No one said lifting the veils would be easy. Promey

..

Yeah like the 70's, and everyone waited in line for gas, just like they waited in line for someone to fix it. Like the Rhwandan's from the cities, only no one fixed anything, so they just sit down and died.

Even if they left the cities where would they go and what would the do, and how many of them would know how to get a crop in, much less wait on it to yeild?

One bad year now for grain growers, and we are SOL. They can hardly supply the feedlots, and even though they know the dangers of Mad Cow disease, they continue togrind up the offal amd feed it back to the animals, because they're simply isn't enough grain to go around and where would they put billions of tons of offal?

that there were 10 more confirmed deaths of men taking Viagra, in addition to the six deaths already reported. In several of the 16 cases, the patients were taking other medications that hadn't been formally tested with Viagra in human trials. Possible drug interaction problems. Maybe the body shut the system down because it was too stressful in the first place? These 16 confirmed deaths were out of 2,000,000 who have prescriptions.

This might lead to some interesting debate on dangerous recreational drugs. Yes? Hard to imagine people giving this one up, even though it's certainly more risky than most.

10:31 US 30-YR TREASURY BD YIELD HITS A LOW OF 5.73% AHEAD OF GREENSPAN SPEECH.
11:00 GREENSPAN: SEES SLOW DOWN WITHOUT RATE HIKE.
11:00 GREENSPAN: 'TIGHTER ECON POLICY MAY BE NECESSARY' IF DEMAND DOES NOT SLOW.
11:00 GREENSPAN: ASIA WON'T THREATEN US EXPANSION.
11:00 GREENSPAN: ASIA RECOVERY WON'T BE SMOOTH.
11:00 GREENSPAN: EVIDENCE OF US SLOWDOWN STILL 'SPARCE'.
11:00 GREENSPAN: INVESTORS EXPECT LOW INFLATION, EXTRAORDINARY PROFITS.
11:00 GREENSPAN: STOCK PRICES 'DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN' UNLESS ECON REMAINS FAVORABLE.
11:00 GREENSPAN: CURRENT ECONOMY 'AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY I'VE WITNESSED'.
11:00 GREENSPAN: COMBO OF GROWTH, LOW INFLATION IS 'EXTRAORDINARY'.
11:00 GREENSPAN: NOT PRUDENT TO ASSUME PRODUCTIVITY GAINS HAS KILLED INFLATION.
11:00 GREENSPAN: CONCERNED ABOUT CONSTRAINTS IN LABOR MARKETS.
11:00 GREENSPAN: ECONOMY ENJOYING A VIRTUOUS CYCLE.
11:00 GREENSPAN: INFLATION RATE REDUCED TO 'NEAR PRICE STABILITY'.
11:06 US 30-YR TREASURY BD YIELD HITS A LOW OF 5.73% ON GREENSPAN COMMENTS.
11:21 GREENSPAN: US STRONG GROWTH,LOW INFLATION IS AS IMPRESSIVE AS I'VE SEEN.
11:38 GREENSPAN: LOW INFLATION REPRESENTS DE FACTO TAX CUT.
11:44 GREENSPAN: TOO SOON TO TELL IF LOWER INFLATION TREND IS SECULAR.
11:45 US 30-YR TREASURY BD YIELD HITS A LOW OF 5.72% DURING GREENSPAN SPEECH.
11:52 GREENSPAN: POLICY MOVES TAKE MARKETS INTO ACCOUNT.
11:59 GREENSPAN: WORKERS SEEKING JOB STABILITY, NOT WAGE GAINS.
12:02 DOW INDUSTRIALS REBOUND, UP 9 POINTS AS GREENSPAN SPEAKS.
12:05 U.S 30-YR TREASURY AT 5.71%, OR UNCHANGED SINCE START OF GREENSPAN TALK.
12:08 GREENSPAN: US TRADE DEFICIT CAN NOT GO ON INDEFINITELY W/O CONSEQUENCES.
12:20 GREENSPAN: IT'S ALWAYS ADVANTAGEOUS FOR A NATION TO LOWER TRADE BARRIERS.
12:24 GREENSPAN: POSTMODERN ECONOMY MAY REQUIRE IMF STRUCTURAL CHANGE.
12:39 GREENSPAN: CURRENT US BULL MARKET HAS ADDED $10 TLN IN EQUITY/WEALTH.
12:42 GREENSPAN: WE DON'T YET KNOW IMPACT OF `YEAR 2000' COMPUTER PROBLEM.
12:46 US 30-YR TREASURY BD YIELD HITS A LOW OF 5.71% DURING GREENSPAN SPEECH.

I hope RETIRED SOLDIER quits taking it. He admitted he did, you know...

This business of grain silos being torn down is startling, to say the least. Got any links for our further exploration? This is an important piece of the puzzle. Thanks.

To All:

Appears that the Powers-To-Be are trying to keep the Market up during the Greenspan testimony by buying the Amex Major Market Index. Advancing 0.4% to 0.6% ahead of other major indices.

no I don't think so, they have torn down about a dozen in a fifymile radias from barge transport, and have been tearing them down all over hell really. The demand has simply depleted any reserve status at all.

I forget when it was to be, but they said production would fall behind demand somewhere around 2K. Hell the Japs are buying up US hay production. Winter before last, I could buy yearling cows cheaper than I could buy a ton of hay, when you consider it might take 2 and 1/2 tons of hay to winter the cow, what do you do, sell three cows to buy hay to feed one?

If gold was holding up well then gold would be ABOVE $300.00........NOT below $300.00. Gold is NOT holding up well. Gold will get it's ass bitten AGAIN if it gets ABOVE $300.00. This will happen for the rest of the summer. LOOK FOR NEW LOWS TO BE SET. I still remember what Aurator's E-Wave Dude has said. His goal is $250.00........don;t see it myself but it could wander nether regions........AYEEEENOCHEAYEE!! ( haggis? )

NO. *Gold is NOT holding up well* ( no offens ( c ) e to any good people here at kitco )

rather....

*PLATINUM is holding up well*

Yes Platinum, the OTHER white metal is holding up quite well under this......this.......this gold barrage..... ( for lack of a better word ) . This news of 10-15% gold holding by new-euro-thingy-whatever-it-is/not is not yet played and the fact that other CB's may be getting on the bandwagon AGAIN by selling some goldie has not played out. It will be the El nio dark cloud circling it's head ALL summer and into fall ( northhemisph ) .......uh huh. And with this blessed buck thing playing out.....well, more bad news.....strike three......yer out.

YES.

It is Platinum that is holding up well. And once the selling stops ( soon? ) and those shorties have to cover and new buyers start coming in because FUNDYMENTALS start taking over again then we will see a metal start to move. YES.

oh yeah....Silver is also holding up well. but my suspicions here a great. lots-o-people waiting to sell on rallies.....eh? i hope that APH has some *wave-magic* in his bag......uh huh. Go APH ( ! ) May these trading demi-gods be with you.......I will light a trading candle...........ohmy!

away.....to the charts

uyinglotsmoresugarsoon

U.S. Federal taxes are divided into 2 categories as defined by the Constitution ;; Direct and Indirect taxes.

Direct taxes are outlines in Article 1, Section 2 and 9, clauses 3 and 4 .

Article I, Section 2,clause 3: ,,, " Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States "

Article I, Section 9, clause 4: ,,, "  No .. Direct, tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census "

Direct taxes are paid directly by individuals to the government. These taxes must be defined by the government and enacted into legislation. The government must also apportion a fixed percentage of the aggregate based on state population according to the census which then must be normalized equally accounted for each person. This is a rather cumbersome process which was the intent of the drafter of the Constitution. ,,, An example: assume the government demanded of each resident of Illinois pay , say, $ 1,423. If you multiply this figure by the number of residence based on Census data -- the number obtained would be the value demanded from each state by which the citizens are responsible for their portion of the total per state ,,, see above reference clauses ,,,

Indirect taxes are those which government can impose on purchases equivalent to a value-added-tax; VAT. The nature by which these taxes differ considerably with Direct taxes is that Direct taxes cannot be avoided if legally instituted -while- Indirect taxes can be avoid and/or reduced based on the free and deliberate choice of the citizen. A person may choose to GROW vegetables as opposed to purchasing them from a shop keeper and paying the Indirect tax on the items purchased.

no I don't think so, they have torn down about a dozen in a fifymile radias from barge transport, and have been tearing them down all over hell really. The demand has simply depleted any reserve status at all.

I forget when it was to be, but they said production would fall behind demand somewhere around 2K. Hell the Japs are buying up US hay production. Winter before last, I could buy yearling cows cheaper than I could buy a ton of hay, when you consider it might take 2 and 1/2 tons of hay to winter the cow, what do you do, sell three cows to buy hay to feed one?

Gold still flat as Greenspan speaks, dollar surges, and bonds blast off. What is the world coming to? Looks like POG getting ready for some decent upside before long. VERY BAD NEWS BEING IGNORED.

"Rapid growth of money this year is a further indication that financial conditions are accommodating strong domestic spending, although we still are uncertain how reliable that relationship will prove to be over time."

Notice he did not say that money supply would not grow in the future but that spending might decline in the face of money growth.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554564081-c69
away...to grind


You and RJ have flogging the Platinum banner for weeks now while it has dropped sharply from by more than %10...must be getting cold sweaty palms holding that metal?

Gold meanwhile has stayed in a narrow band $290-$305 for the last six months almost while appreciating in all world currencies besides the Yank toilet paper.....gold and dollars are rising together....but not platinum.

Are you and RJ still SHORT gold?....come aout and say it if you are....just stop undermining it with "knowledgeable" market "news".

It's a shame, really. I'd like to see Viagra remain available, as mature adults can make their own decisions, take their own chances. But then, big insurance won't like that. And the interfering Fed seems to be on some sort of personal control crusade. Shhesh! Next they'll be outlawing ice cream.

catalogue. Much appreciated.

It looks like gold has completed a correction in the context of an up move. Can somebody help me with this?

I don't know if Dept. of ag has any figures on storage or not. I do know that the damn ownership of the local graneries have changed hands about a half a dosen times recently. One co. that had been here 80+ years sold out. I don't even know whether domestic or foreign interest own them now. I have seen the silo's offered for salvage on a regular basis for the last five years.

to a wee bit more platy this a.m........uh huh. Not to worry....it was not enough to budge prices ( grin ) . There is still time to get aboard........whether it sink or swim.......... ( hmmmmmmm ) ...............I am above the water line currently................ ( currently ) .....ohmy!

feels good......IDCIBMP.

away...from ankle to shin-deep.



On MSN, but gee it looks clear to me that golds ready now to head up. Help somebody, this can't be right.

Grain silos are hazardous. See "Death toll rises to four in Kansas silo blast" Point Cast Top Story.

I agree! If I want to go with a big smile on my face it should be MY choice!

12:53 GREENSPAN: SEEING IMPACT FROM ASIS IN INVENTORIES, LOWER EXPORT DEMAND.
13:09 GREENSPAN: CONSUMER CREDIT LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY BURDENSOME.

When somebody gets a chance check the XAU chart and tell me i"m wrong ( that an up move looks emminent ) .

What I think is important here is what the banks are going to do with the gold they hold. If we are right , the EMU sales is or has ended, thereby reducing crushing supply. The very recent volatility in the price of gold appears to be telling us the dynamics of the market have changed. What else could it be - other than sudden supply reduction. The deflationists are king again today. The CRB is disappearing, so is the Yen and the Aussie dollar.
Bonds are north, big time. Yet, gold is up on the week ( after receiving bearish news, supposedly ) and so is silver. My only explanation for this is that the excess supply is vanishing or has vanished, which allows gold to lift in price very easily when the buyers step in. We should move up in price very sharply in the near future.
Bill

13:12 US 30-YR TREASURY BD YIELD HITS A LOW OF 5.71% AFTER GREENSPAN SPEECH.

Take a look at the chart of XAU. Doesn't it it look like a finished correction of an up move?

There are 1,200,000 presciption medicine related permanent health injuries a year in US, these figures are considered to be representative of the % of illness and deaths around the world, with 100,000 of them resulting in death, making prescription medicines in the top five of the killers in the US.

Consdering this, and the amount of people starving, why is the UN worried about a DRUG WAR, when illegal drugs only effect about 0.280% of the world population, and starvation affects over 7%, and prescription medicine kill about as many people as heart disease or cancer.

I. Every political disaster needs a scapegoat. It might be suggested, given the trail balloons of October 1997, Chinas devaluation was responsible for the Asean meltdown, that China makes a convenient scapegoat. Does not this fly in the face of facts? Are not fast moving Western Capital, voracious forex traders, and TOO MUCH liquidity more logical instigators? There are numerous threads tying and linking disparate disasters. Is it not remarkable that everything bad is the fault of the East, and the prudent and savvy West, while concerned will be only marginally affected?

II. Chinese leaders have not 'recently' said they would NOT devalue: China must devalue to be competitive with neighbors whose currencies have plummeted; rumors of yuan trading down in gray marketergo, China will devalue.
( a ) Valid question? Why would Chinese leaders place themselves in such a face-losing position? They need not have made the many--and forceful--assurances to their neighbors and the world, were there the slightest possibility they might soon be brought to the contretemps of breaking their word. It seems nonsensical, or too nave for even a freshman congressman from Podunk. And the Chinese work from a long time-line. Again, we are asked ( implicitly ) to believe the East is ( 1 ) corrupt and ( 2 ) not too bright.

III. The constant harangue regarding the pitiable state of Japans banks, while certainly true, ignores the more ominous truth that global banks are not, NOT, stand-alone entities. Where one global bank has significant problems, its correspondent banks will labor under predictable difficulties. This was true before the specter of derivatives, whose dark shadow, secret, menacing, now binds commercial entities in ways never before possible. Must we not view the 'overnight' mergers recently seen as an integral part of the global financial problem? When capital flows at the speed of light from one end of the global village to the other, are not all caught in the lights backwash at some point?

IV. Economic Activity: There is something other worldly about the anguish evinced over Japans economic activity. Sony made their very ambitious numbers, thanks to the weak yen; Western Digital couldnt make its revised downward numbers. Intel is delaying Meridian ( which breaks a traditional time-line development strategy ) . The tech-sector has been another engine of this bull; one may argue with conviction that this engine is in the shop for repairs. Asean contagion? Or the normal cyclic pattern? Or something else again? What can be stated is that it is NOT just Asean; it is Global.

prices. Aug Gold @ 295.70 July Silver @ 5.36 June T-Bond @ 122 30/32
and June S&P @ 1125.40 Fox-Man

Im looking forward to the winter of 99-00. The hustle and bustle will finally wind down when high-flying skiers, doctors, lawyers and $25/hour tradesmen and hard rock miners become members of our beans, spaghetti & tuna crowd. After selling my inventory at maybe 50 cents on the dollar for Gold dust, Silver coin or useful trade goods Ill board up the shop and take my first vacation in 7 years. Wow - more than two days off at a time! Maybe Ill go camping and let my gray beard grow. All day I can sit on a rock with my rifle on my lap, hot mug of cocoa in my hand and my back to a tree. Just the squirrels, jays and me letting the world pass us by. I could even do some Gold panning and prospecting in the spring {May-June} when the mountain streams hereabouts thaw out and most of the predators have shot each other.

That what the pot smolers and others are saying.

But as the guy in charge of the DEA ( Tom Constantine ) said, the only reason they ( drug users ) take this stuff is to get high ( feel good ) , and I quote "and I think that is dangerous". Paul Stossel pointed out that getting a buzz was probably why he drank a voka collins or martinni, and
Constantine said, well if you are drinking for that reason it is probably the wrong one, but Ican't tell you how to live your life. ha ha

I place little faith in charts, other than as a guage of what the
chartists are looking at what their corresponding sentiment might
be.

thing a while back and learned and got a taste of a SUGGESTION of an interest rate increase. Here he is testing again. The market is getting jaded, tho. They don't think he'll ever do anything. With Asia getting worse by the day, the market feels safe to keep on plowing ahead without fear of an interest rate increase. The market needs a heavy sign, a bucket of ice water, like a drop in the dollar.
-EJ

yOU PROBABLY PUT LITTLE FAITH IN ROAD MAPS. Sorry bout the cap lock. You need to use as tool only.

When did Canada make its last big gold sale?

little bit higher in the clouds in the event that your toes might reach the grass, on this fabulous Island that is Long, of course, after a lovely stroll on the beach... When I asked her why, she said that someone like you should be met with the widest smile we have to offer.

I LOVE yittles...........trundling down the beach wearing CLOWN noses...

What? Babar...we must go and greet more friends...suitcases and trunks don't ya know..........................

I was speaking to prommy about viagra, works for me!! Put some real zip in life after losing it to health problems, ( not heart ) so I should be safe. BUT if I die it should be with a smile!!

to All
Concern over the IMF and RSA is misdirected. I dont
believe RSA has any IMF loans nor does it seek any.
RSA raises foreign currency loans via Bonds in the
Euromarket.. Normally in Rand .. but also in other
currencies. The inflation rate here has fallen to
roughly 6 % from 15 plus 10 years ago. Bonds yield
close to 15 % making a real yield of about 8.5 %.
The bank action was caused by the Reserve bank
increasing the repo rate last week to try to halt the
rand's slide against the dollar. This has now passed
through to the comercial banks. The IMF plays no role
in RSA. RSA has been cut off from cheap loans for years
due to sanctions/perceptions of "instability" by idiot
bankers who threw money at other African countries and
Asia .. Most of the recipiants of this "help" are now
in heavy sh!t, while RSA still controls its own affairs,
as silly and pointless as those affairs might be.

Gold is puttin in a pretty good performance today considering the strength of the dollar. My opinion was that the dollar would go down as the EMU came into fruition. Obviously today I am wrong. It looks like a blow off to me today but that could be a guy trying to find a reason to justify being wrong.

I am not here to argue with you so much as to exchange info and opinion.

If I sound like RJ it is because we hold the same opinion re. these markets. I have learned from all here and profited from few. I am here to make money. ( period ) . It is true that I have lost a portion of my trading account to platinum recently but I do not look at it this way. My take is that I AM SO FAR AHEAD IN THIS MARKET THAT I CAN LOSE SOME MONEY AND STILL BE FAR AHEAD OF THE GAME. This platinum market has MOVED and I will trade markets that move. I cannot make money on something that stays 'rangebound' for such long periods of time unless I trade 'too much'. Nope. I prefer moving markets. btw, doesn't flogging mean spitting? We have been FLYING the banner. YES. And don't read the banner flying stuff on plat, continue to read the gold banner waving and watch your money be slowly SUCKED up........... ( that's the great sucking sound ) .....or is it the kiwi dollar.....or the OZ$...........one thing I don't care for but I here enough of on this forum is 'sour grapes'........it is pitiful and doesn't look good on a true trader. ( I am not saying that EVERYONE here has 'sour grapes' so back off all you pitbulls....you know who you are ) ......

one more thing regarding this Yank-Toilet-Paper I keep hearing about........it can buy many of yer kiwi notes........many. It is worth what the market says at that moment.....not what it will be worth yesterday or tomorrow or next year. I live today.....I plan for tomorrow but I live today. And today the US$ is kicking ass. Send me all your Yankee toilet paper and I'll make sure it gets 'used' in my Water Closet........er..............for buying cheap gold. The price of Gold has not appreciated in your currency.......your currency has taken a crap! The price of gold has stayed 'range bound'....remember?

And I am not short gold........but I will be if it rallies decently.....uh huh.

away.......from kiwi ( he's a little sad right now ) ...

nosweatonhispalms

gotta go to work for some toilet paper now....

I've looked around, not deeply ( time is limited ) , and from what I can see, the big starvation issues currently are all political, or caused by war conditions. N. Korea, Angola, Sudan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan are the hot spots. This is getting too complicated to tackle on this forum. I'll try to stop by the KB&G this week around 23:00 if you want to pursue this.

Yes. As tools. All by themselves one can get misled.

Y2k motivated demand is depleting solar power sector inventories. These inventories are thin to begin with. If you are thinking of buying solar PV components, then do it now or you may never find 'em in a months time.
Rep:"We've been incredibly busy."
Me: "Why's that?"
Rep:"Its all those year 2000 people."
Me: "I'll make my order now.."
..
Rep:"Well, the power distribution panel is back ordered 6 weeks .. we are also out of some of the PV panels. But the one's you are ordering we have in stock."

If you are planning to prepare, to buy bulk food or items which might be interesting to those who also are preparing it would be good to consider the amount of inventory which is 'in the pipe' and how fast that inventory is depleting . Once back orders begin to accumulate you may never receive your purchases. 'China' Desiel motor/generator sets are 6 weeks back ordered now ( No ice storms out there motivating people to buy this time of year, are there? ) . Most long term storage food distributors are experiencing major delays in delivery of orders. ( Walton's direct is 8 months back ordered now, though distributors seem to have priority. )

Looks like Clinton will address the Y2K issue sometime in August. If public opinion is not formed very clearly I expect he will do a breezy fireside chat ( in August!! ) to inspire the majority and calm the nervous. If crowd sentiment has started to tense up I expect a 'we can overcome this together, and damn those who don't believe it' type address. A very controlled image; very confident and reassuring either way. In the depths of summer vacation we will listean and forget .. Beach Boys playing on the box .. lazy days.

Give it until later Septmeber or October to ferment into a nasty case of foreboding among the masses.

Bottom line .. you have ***LESS THAN 100 DAYS*** to finish your preparations before the herd begins to smell the fire's smoke burning its way. Baby, you had better be ready before then or you will be part of the herd ( or under the herd ) .

Expect the Federal government to place controls on the herd's movements and options as it becomes obvious that people are "hoarding".

List:

A Bible.
A safe place.
Year round and work clothing.
Water, food and fuel.
Cash, PM's and debt free as much as possible.
Non-hybrid seed, tools and books ( for garden to feed yourself ) .
A critter gun ( dogs will be a problem ) .

Expect that you will be on your own for months to years. Expect to share what you have and make. Re-evaluate your life and goals. Pray.

My posts with the subject "From the Veneroso Camp" are taken from one of two threads at Silicon Investor site. Both threads were started by Bill Murphy of Veneroso Associates. One thread is called "Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent" and the other, "Gold's Six Month Base Near Completion". I have asked Bill Murphy if it is alright that I repost his thoughts here at Kitco. He has no objection.

one month gold lease rate now 1.46%. Up quite a bit the past week or so. Another positive sign.

without the roadmaps, cause everyonelse is using them.

Socit Gnrale de Surveillance Holding S.A.: We brought forward some months ago. ( Nick@C thought we were 'running' the stock! ) SGS is, rather, the perfect example of an international business needful of a sound, honest currency of account. Care to guess to which currency
( hint--settlement currency ) we refer? Now, consider this: The Good Baron Finch, who has a sizable stake in Socit Gnrale de Surveillance, purchased a sizable stake in a gold mining company in the recent past ( HM ) . Where can SGS quietly buy gold? Hint--it's a neighborhood 'store'. ( :- )
http://www.sgsgroup.com/sgsgroup.nsf/pages/home.html

a feirce thing with a gun and his back up against a tree!!!

Sam, I'll check that out.

Tol1, Thanks, have fun with your little sweetie, Babar & Pooh.

Retired Soldier - Hope you remain one of the 99.9999 percent who are OK.

SDRer - I posted to you earlier this morning.

BBL

For Bloomer
You asked FOUR TIMES for someone to look at the
$XAU chart and tell you if it looked like it was going
up .. FOUR TIMES BLOOMER ..
Im a nice guy down deep .. so I looked at it ..
In different ways .. If I stand WAY BACK and TAKE OFF
my Glasses .. maybe it looks like it's going up.. but
then again .. maybe not ..
But up close and with my glasses on .. it looks like
cr@P.

Its all a rotten mess, no??? I suppose we could follow this circle back to the days of Adam&Co. To my mind the Chinese are neither great planners or idiots. They are just people. Their culture is full of folly and wisdom just as the west's is ( just different ) . They screw up as much as they succeed. No one and no culture is so wonderful that there is not a fall which follows pride ( in whatever its cultral, political or religious trappings ) .

All IMVHO

Glad to see you back.

Thanks for the kind thoughts, I should be ok, no heart problem I am however mildly diabetic type 2, and high cholesterol. Working on both with medication, improving greatly thank you.

The chart looks like you.

John Disney:
Your being way to kind! Why don't you say what is really on your mind. With crude oil dropping to historic lows and bonds surging to historic highs along with everything else moving against gold...CRB, Budget Deficit, Dollar, Etc... It is real hard to figure out what people are thinking when they buy gold as a speculative investment.
One day you will find Aug COMEX Gold under $290.0 and when you do the next wave down has begun. How low will this next wave down take it??? The XAU Hitting Yauger's target of "35" is looking more and more real! Believe it or loose your money!

P.S. - I'm Short Gold Futures and Long HM Puts so my thinking is biased.

This from a newsgroup to which I belong:

Just met the sales manager for Indonesia's largest polyester company ( $2.2 billion revenue ) - says the Western world has no idea of what's going on there - that its gonna take a long time for things to be fixed - Suharto had kept the lower income groups happy with subsidized edible oil, noodles & rice prices; and the Generals happy with cushy "profit-sharing"

IMF changed that - people went crazy. Japan's actually extending credit in Pac Rim to keep working capital finance available and postponing older/senior debt. China is holding firm on currency but drastically reducing internal credit supply and tightening credit controls so that the weaker Chinese players fold... says if the HK$ or the Remnimbi are hit, its gonna set that region back by 5-6 years. Everybody wants the US$. The expats are paid USD salaries at US $1= 4,500 rupiah ( mkt price is 10,850 ) - says those numbers are not really accurate coz nobody does trades at those numbers - just "bid/ask" or one minor trade done here or there; internally prices have gone up but not by 300% and everybody generally assumes that 4500 is fair market value. He says he's never seen a run on banks like this one in Indonesia - long lines at ATMs, the biggest bank folding ( Chinese owned ) - Chinese expats are not yet back - new buildings frozen in mid-construction...

Here's today's headlines from indian newspapers...Indian market's
perceptions of gold/silver as a risk-hedge are playing out...

Business news from Indiaserver ( 10-06-98 )

* Yen's free fall could spark second Asia crisis
* Sharp rise in bullion prices
* Rupee crosses 42 mark
* Smart recovery on BSE
* Foreign banks register lower profits in 1996-97

June 10, 1998

Yen's free fall could spark second Asia crisis
Asia seems headed for another round of economic uncertainty as the
Japanese yen continues its downward plunge, threatening to halt the
gradual export based recovery among Japan's major trading partners. A
Japanese domestic dispute over how to handle the problem is
aggravating regional woes. On Tuesday, for the second day in
succession the Japanese yen closed below 140 to the U.S. dollar in
Tokyo after reaching a new low of 141 in the morning trading. This has
artificially boosted the Nikkei stock index for the day which closed
at 15,530.17, a gain of 1.54 per cent over Monday's closing, mainly
due to the rise in export oriented issues. That, however, means
further jitters for Japan's Asian investment destinations and some
already struggling economies. Japan accounts for roughly 60 per cent
of regional trade. A weakening yen surely dampens the prospect for
those Asian exporters which hoped to bypass reduced domestic
purchasing power to try and reach the Japanese market through their
export competitiveness helped by their own depreciated local currency
values against the dollar.


Sharp rise in bullion prices
Silver prices zoomed up by Rs. 260 a kg and gold hardened by Rs. 70
per ten gram on the bullion market on Tuesday due to firm global trend
coupled with a sharp rise in dollar rate against the rupee. Ready silver
( .999 ) opened smartly higher at Rs. 7,830 and shot up further to close
at Rs. 7,865, showing a huge gain of Rs. 265 over the last close of
Rs. 7,600. Standard gold, after a better start at Rs. 4,220, rose
further and finished at Rs. 4,230, displaying a smart rise of Rs. 70 over the last close of Rs. 4,160.

Rupee crosses 42 mark
RUPEE bears held at bay all through the previous week by sustained
State Bank of India counter dollar selling succeeded in making deep
inroads into the local unit's defence on Tuesday on the large public
bank making a significant shift in its dollar selling strategy.

The Indian rupee mired in self-doubt, set a fresh all time low at
42.23/25 against the dollar and showed signs of weakening further as
there is little on the horizon to change the negative sentiment that
currently dominates the market. It has now set fresh all time lows in
ten of the last 20 trading days since the Pokhran II. It has suffered
losses of almost 45 paise or little over one per cent since ending its
trading session on Monday, while dropping about six per cent since May
12, the day sanctions over nuclear tests were imposed on India. ``It
was the much awaited dip which came through in the absence of the
41.80 window of State Bank of India and it swiftly moved to 42.10
before closing weaker at 42.23", said Mr. Moses Harding, chief dealer,
IndusInd Bank. Probably, the market outlook may prefer a 42.10- 42.40
range and any breach of 42.30 and up to 42.50 should bring in
exporters to sell 6 to 12 months receivables. ``The market will be
turning to the selling mood when we near 42.40 to 42.50 and the market
is likely to be one way since importers have already covered their
payables at 41.80 spot window of RBI," Mr. Harding added.

Smart recovery on BSE

Equities staged a smart recovery lifting the Sensex by over 51 points
on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Tuesday following hectic bear covering
and fresh buying by domestic institutions even as foreign funds
remained absent. The recovery process, which began yesterday at the
fag end of the session, progressed further as bears, who had sold
heavily in the last few days, rushed to cover their short positions.
BSE sensitive index, which dipped to the intra-day low of 3372.18 at the
outset, rallied smartly to close at 3468.07 against yesterday's close of 3416.73, netting a gain of 51.34 points. The BSE-100 index lost 11.77 points to close at 1525.71 against 1513.94.

Govt will ensure Re stability: Sinha

THE Government is keeping a close watch on the situation arising out
of the recent depreciation of the currencies in South-East Asia and
would be in a position to counter any attack on the Indian currency,
the Finance Minister, Mr. Yashwant Sinha, has said.

That was a compliment. The chart looked great. Gold is going up. I guarantee it. Everywhere but SA.

Shows that the SEC has been breathing hard down the necks of financial services, banks, and utilities since late 1997. They even provide a multipage questionaire for you to use when grilling your stock broker on Y2K readiness. Very thoughtful.
-EJ

When the EMU will be introduced in Europe, the nations will
have two currencies at the same time. Is for the EMU amount
introduced, say in France, a specific amount of Francs removed
from circulation?

If some of the local currency is not removed with the introduction
of the EURO, the nations will experience a significant increase in
the money supply, and therefore inflation.

Comments please.

Yes! {:- )

Bloomberg reports that Russia has failed to attract enough interest in its auction of public Paper, as people are seriously questioning the viability of the Rouble as a currency.

How is this any different from the Reichmark jpeg linked in Sharefin's 02:06 post.

To the best of my German it says, the Reichbank pays to the bearer in exchange for this banknote.

What does it really pay?

It pays Absolutely nothing Redeeming; more paper; a promise to pay a piece of paper with a number on it.

It starts in Asia and with gaining impetus attacks the world of Fiat. Babylon and on it goes!

Blueberry on viagra == inflatiobary

agulp to ya ( . ) More traders with like opinions.......ho hum.

away....to feel comfort in this crowd



It's not the item that's at issue, it's a question of who's making the choice. It's my temple, my throne and my kingdom, and god gave me a free will, who is the state to take it away?

Blooper how does that work?????
So anyone reading your comments can go out and buy gold and if it goes down you will buy it from them at a GUARANTEED price thus ensuring everyone that they will now loose any money?? If so I would love to have that Guarantee in writing.

Gold went down yesterday and today. Until we close above $297.0 ( Basis Aug ) the trend is down. A close above $297.0 would turn the short term trend nuetral.

When bonds go to historic highs, gold loves it, cause when they ( bonds ) fall, You,ve got a gold rally.

for Bloomer ..
Ill remember that Bloomer ..
FOREVER ..
Personal guarantee !!
Are you listening Murrstein ??

Get your ass off your shoulders. Can't you take a joke?

That big thump behind you is me and mine...we have arrived and you SIR are correct...YOU MAKE YOUR OWN CHOICE, SIR...or me and the things that ride and fly with me will make it so...

Have a GREAT DAY...what a fabulous day to be an AMERICAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How high are your Historic highs for bonds? I still have 10% Canada bonds from the 1992 period and I think they got to about 12.5%.

...how is gold staying near $300 under this relentless assault? What will happen to gold when the forces against it begin to break down?
-EJ

I agree the higher they go the harder they 'could' fall. The question is when are they going to fall? and when they do how far are tehy going ot fall? I mean are they going to 128.00 and then fall to 115.00 only to recover some time after that. That does not make a good lasting gold rally.

bloomer ..
Happy days at the kitco bar and grill

Never make forcasts, especially about the future. Samual Goldwyn

heads up

The UN thing is about two things, one is make sure codified laws are available to every member nation to do whatever needs to be done, should local lawfull authority be unavailable, and world courts to divy up the seizures, and believe me there will be seizure.

The UN's pysical role is going to be mangagement of information and resources. Remote ( intrusive ) eavesdropping and translation capabilities, with instant access for member nations to intelligence and physical resources for terrorist/drugs and whatever.

They figure in the US alone, one US Attorney should seize 1 million in assests every year just from drugs, that's why they hired/appointed another 300 a few years ago.

Sooner or later, this Y2K thing ( whether or not doomsday is in fact coming ) has got to start to affect gold, and maybe it is already. Everyone is saying, Buy gold now to get ready for ( the possibility of ) major Y2k dislocations.

Y2K concerns must be adding a few dollars to the price of gold now, whether from very slightly increased demand from hoarders, or investor expectations.

Introduction of the Euro Compilation of Community Legislation and Related Documents
( October, 1997 )
Article 23
Liquidation of the EMI


23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US
dollars as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement shall be
unwound by the first day of the third stage in accordance with Article 20
of the said Agreement.
Page 39 of 159

the creation of ECUs AGAINST GOLD and the dollar???? Shall we speculate
a bit?

It's always been about choice, and certain elements think they know what choice's we need to make to keep us were we need to be for whatever purposes are expedient to them.

Choice, is derived from a persons morality, which comes from his personal beliefs or religion. Take away choice, and you have denied that person his comunnion with his god, and he is then but a sport of chance or victim of despair.

I agree, it's happening. Y2K is the ace in the hole for the POG. The dollar is surging, Asia tanking again, dissapointing COMMENT about POSSIBLE reserves for the EURO and Gold seems like it wants to go up. I still believe the tide is turning for gold.

For Glenn ..
I admire some of these guys in a way .. Faith ..
boundless faith .. no matter what happens .. gold will
go up..
no inflation .. collapsing crude oil prices ..
metals falling .. the CRB index at 210 and looking
lower .. and NOW the dollar moving up through its
30 day MA average against the european currencies ..
demand off in the far east .. gold below its
200 day MA in all major currencies but the yen..
AND ... it's gonna go up ..
Who am I to say they are wrong ?? I dont want to
be a meanie !!

I do know that certain banks are getting hit with higher than normal cash demands due to Y2K concerns. The fear seems to be not having access to cash rather than in the value of the cash. If the public begins to doubt the value of their cash, that will effect gold sales. But it'll take a lot to convince the guy on the street to buy gold. Too many people know someone who got burned on gold in the 1980s, and the mutual fund machine has been spewing pro-stock, anti-gold rant for so many years that Gold is Dead has become Truth. More likely, if gold sales are to see a broader audience of buyers it will come, as Gollum has pointed out, from investors hedging paper with hard assets. And to get them to do that, they'll have to have been doing the paper grip-and-grin for a while first.
-EJ

The roadmaps have their uses, to be sure. Especially if you are doing
a lot of short term trading. I doubt, though, that Mr. Buffet relies
much on charts except as a very short term check that he's not buying
in at an overbought moment or selling out at an oversold moment. Prices
do tend to overshoot one way or the other at a sudden change in
sentiment.

THE DERIVATIVES CRISIS IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE AT THE SAME TIME AS A GLOBAL CURRENCY CRISIS AND AN AMERICAN POLITICAL CRISIS! GOLD IS GONNA' SHINE!

For some reason or for some non-reason the xau took a little 3 o'clock dip by about a point. This market is really crazy: no volume all day then blip downward. I guess Jeil has another data point. Anybody?

I'm just having a bad hair year....and so is the rest of my body! T#1.........the moment my red clay-covered shoes hit your couristan rug....the welcome will be over. But we will have glimpsed each other, at least. ;^ ) ~

Promey.......can you find out for us HOW MUCH OF THE GOLD does the IMF get to keep that they extract from a targeted soon-to-collapse country? The bulk surely going to the US. I am sure it is a handsome reward...maybe 20-25% of the total take? thenks.......

THE YIELD CURVE IS ABOIUT TO INVERT! RECESSION HERE WE COME!

I get a kick out of you. You are a true Goldbug. You always come running in here screaming with your doom and gloom posts. I especially liked the posts about "GREENSPAN LYING THROUGH HIS DENTURES!" You could have posted that one again today. Keep it up my friend. You give this place character.

DJI sure is tanking all of a sudden...down 50+ ??

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD...I like your posts, but would you pleeeeaaassseee STOP SHOUTING AT ME..thanx...

Breadth sucks! Volume sucks! AD line sucks! Money will now flee stocks and pile into bonds leading to a bond bubble which will eventually find its home in gold!

Special report on the EMU bloc
NEW EUR 11: 'WORLD'S GREATEST TRADING POWER'
How it compares with USA & Japan

More money, bigger reserves
M1 money supply is larger in EUR 11 ( 1 404.7 bn ECU in Nov '97 ) than in the USA ( 968.0 bn ) or Japan ( 1 245.5 bn ) .

Both short- and long-term EUR 11 interest rates have been converging towards historically low levels, particularly in Italy, Spain and Portugal, where they had been relatively high.

Including or excluding gold, EUR 11 holds much more foreign exchange reserves than the USA or Japan.

Gold included, EUR 11 had 20.6% of the world total in November last year; Japan had 13.8% and the USA 4.1%.
http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/eurostat/compres/en/4098/6104098a.htm
bbml

There has been no press release today, but KRY is down C$1.05 to C$4.95. Does anyone know anything?


The Preacher

I see now, in answer to my own question. Dow is down over 50 and Nasdaq about 20 points. The bigger xau issues are just reflecting the market as usual. BMG, HL and others are still in the black.

Where are you??? Dow dropping like a rock...-67...
thanks gchead.

SAN FRANCISCO, June 10 ( Reuters ) - Shares of several
semiconductor stocks tumbled Wednesday, as a first quarter
earnings shortfall warning by Lattice Semiconductor Corp
sent more jitters about earnings through the group.

Also hurting chip stocks was a big decline in Texas
Instruments Inc , which tumbled 6.49 percent after
International Business Machines Corp announced plans to
enter the digital signal processor market, a market TI
dominates with an approximate 45 percent market share.

"These things are getting killed," said one trader.
"Lattice blew up and it's taking everything down."

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

Post-Greenspan speech blue chip rally fades. Dow up 5 at
9055. Philip Morris off 2 after Brown & Williamson loses
Florida tobacco-related lawsuit. Market seen tired, lacking
volume.S&P500 up 1 at 1119 with market breadth still negative.
Nasdaq off 11 at 1789 amid tech profit warnings. Long bond
strong, up 1-7/32 to yield 5.71 percent.
DOW
WORRIES OVER YEN, CHINA BATTER ASIA MARKETS [nHKHD6A059]
REUTERS

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

Now DJI off 90+...look out below...

thanks ej

that hits right around 2pm?
-EJ

Listening to Stephane Grappelli...making tea for Mumm on the lawn...If the carpets are not good enough for the souls ( not a TYPO ) of your boots I shall have them replaced, pronto....

You Sir are FOREVER welcome...Do me a special favor, hug the great sky of.......................................................................Oklahoma!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaa!

Maybe it's fear of what could happen overnight in Asia, with a possible bad opening tomorrow, so get out before the close?

it seems to me the DOW makes its move starting at almost precisely 2pm, like you can practically set your watch by it. What's with that?
-EJ

There is a bull here that is in respiratory failure.

My guess is that KRY is rumored to be the "winner" and be stuck with that dawg las christinas!

Nasdaq down 27! TODAY IS A KEY REVERSAL WEDNESDAY! Look out tomorrow and Friday! It's gonna' be bloody! Dow must come back to 200-day moving average ( around 8300 ) at a minimum AND HOLD if this bull trend is to continue higher! Too bad AG, for awhile I thought you had the world snookered into believing you actually had a handle on what is going on and how to deal with it! Did I see those dentures rattle when the female congresswoman bugged you about ASIA? Brazil down 4.5%! Venezuela down 3.5%! Latin America tanking big time! $13 crude will devastate LA! Not to mention Russia! Looks like you've got a full plate, Alan! Let us all know when you think Asia is gonna' impact the US, will ya?

May I kindly ask of you to inquire of Mr. Leo what one is to do with the second six strings if one doesn't know what to do with the first six strings? ohmy........diggin' da' dirty dozen denizen

Smoking is definitely bad for you. Any ideas as to how low this thing will go?
CNBC interview suggested 15%.

Thanks.

There seems to be a great deal of confusion concerning whether we have been told ( a ) that the Euro will be backed 10-15% by gold or ( b ) that the European Central Bank will keep 10-15% of its reserves in gold. I believe, despite statements by Michael Kosares ( of USAGold ) and others, that what we have been told is merely ( b ) , which entails no particular relationship between the Euro money supply and the amount of gold held by the European Central Bank. If the Euro were to be *backed* by gold, that would mean establishment of a kind of gold standard, in terms of which the supply of money would be limited by the amount of gold available to back it. This would almost certainly be far more bullish for gold than ( b ) , which means only that gold must constitute a certain portion of the Bank's reserves. There is no essential or legal relationship between the magnitude of the money supply and the magnitude of reserves.

I agree more than you know about free choice, after all I did spend 26 years defending it! Shalom

The dow bounced as usual in the closing minutes but the xau kept snowplowing. Most of my charts are down except LIHIR and Glamis.
Glamis is up a full 1/8 point in this mess. Clues anyone?

IMHO, the market goes up and ddown because the fund mgrs have become day traders. They have lost confidence in the Bull and know the time is short. IMHO only

There is real fear about Asia, Japan, the Yen and thus the other currencies. Today's stock market activity is another sign of trepidation. A pretty good down day with bonds way up.
The last two day's bearishness factors on gold have been way, way up there. Yet, we are still up on the week.
Saw strong hand, trade buying in gold today.
Tomorrow should be very interesting. If we really tank from here, I would have to eat crow. So be it. I look for a big move up.

ponder and devise the ying-the yang, the ping-the pong, the cheech-the chong of GOLD......in these mortal passages studio's soul shall not abide, but, rather, I shall dwell on this great question..."Willest I still post on Kitco, whenest I have profited fifty million from Gold...or willest I even care?" Yes, I do think I shall.

is of me and Leo...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Would you like this hand-written and signed?............if not the answer is simple...make them feel at home, until YOU realize you never had to leave to rake them and thus learn more about yourself...then they will sing not for, but of you,,,

Thus the Lesson Endeth,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

CoolJing..Dome had financing lined up for a $600 million mill for Cristinas. Some "dawg",eh?

NAMASTE'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

...just to get under his skin ( for pulling that little fart joke on me last night ) .

Today seems to confirm a radical psychological shift in the markets. Normally, the equities markets have jumped through the roof after one of Greenspan's "The World is Sheer Bliss" speeches. Not today. Still, there is a great deal of optimism amongst equity investors ( strong purchases in the last 10 minutes ) indicating that there is much more room to fall.

The bond market was extremely strong ( way too strong ) , indicating increasing concerns by Americans ( who already have taken equity profits ) that a stock market crash is just around the corner. They are preferring to stick monies in bonds on the expectation that a market deflation will wreck equities and enhance the value of their bond holdings. However, any market deflation will wreak havoc with the US dollar, compelling a rise in interest rates to stem capital outflows, auguring a severe bout of global stagflation.

Stagflation will decimate both equities AND BONDS, leaving gold and silver as essentially the only remaining, liquid, safety havens.

Gold's even performance today in the face of a surging US dollar, a surging US bond market, and the extremely negative spin cast upon gold by yesterday's ECU gold reserve announcment also confirms a psychological shift, foretelling an incipient developing gold bull. Essentially, gold's performance today was unusually encouraging. Still lots of pessimisim remains though ( judging by the faltering XAU ) and that, of course, is the essential fabric in the creation of a strong gold bull foundation.

Again, the psychological trend shifts are evident everywhere this year in all financial markets.

The worst thing Greenspan said in his speech today is "The economy has never looked better." Since normal, efficient markets are always FUTURE indicators, then if things have never looked better, then by extrapolation, things can only get worse!

A collective rush for the exits in general equities will occur long before FALL since so many investors are expecting a FALL collapse, therefore the savviest will make an early exit. Look for an early to mid- Summer debacle in the face of low trading volumes.

Conversely, within the next month, there should be a strong incipient gold bull gathering steam in expectation of the troubles ahead for the general markets.

And now, with all sincerity, I must say "Au Revoir" for some time.

Good Luck.

Thanks.

F*

Now, I shall commit to paper this lesson....and then I shall duly study it. For here it is commonly known, many great ones have come from and to the Island that is Long. Yes sir, many of the best.

FWIW Germans by and large are starting to have a dim view
of the Euro,especially when they have to foot the bill.Saddled with the high unemployment,dual ( Euro and local ) accounting and the 2000y bug,the US dollar is the only game in town.It will gain further strength this
year and next year vis a vis other currencies if very little is being
spent by the same countries to prevent the financial morass they will be in.Money will flow more dramatic from Europe to the US in the
coming year,as more resources are being spent in the US to overcome these same difficulties
This will auger well for the US bond and stockmarket next year.

Wednesday June 10 1998 ( from newsgroup - source unknown )

Yuan fears compound troubles of China plays

LANA WONG and CHRISTINE CHAN
Red chips and H shares yesterday extended their losing streak as
concerns grew that the mainland might no longer be the
economic bulwark for Asia's troubled economies.

The Hang Seng red-chip index slumped 8.51 per cent to 934.92
points, the lowest point since it was introduced last June, while
the Hang Seng H-share index reached its lowest level since
January, sliding 6.8 per cent to 455.3 points.

The sharp falls far outstripped the Hang Seng Index's 2.27 per
cent decline to 8,391.46 points.

Brokers said an avalanche of negative reports about economic
growth and the stability of the yuan cast doubt on the mainland's
ability to withstand the fallout of the region's financial crisis.

The latest blows came in the form of comments from officials.
Yesterday, People's Bank of China governor Dai Xianglong said a
weak yen would hurt the mainland's trade and its utilisation of
foreign capital.

That followed comments on Monday by Vice-Premier Wu
Bangguo, who said it would be difficult to achieve targeted 8 per
cent economic growth for this year.

The remarks gave further weight to doubts that Beijing will be
able to hold the yuan at its present level.

Samson Chau, a BNP Prime Peregrine assistant director, said: "It
all boils down to concerns whether the yuan's stability can be
sustained in light of the yen's weakness.

"Yesterday's comments by mainland officials about the impact of
the sinking yen on the mainland's economy and exports were
worrying signs for investors," he said.

Some analysts suggested that parent companies of red chips, in
anticipation of a yuan devaluation, had been selling their
holdings in return for US dollars. They also blamed institutional
short-selling of red-chip shares for the market's decline.

China Resources Enterprise shares declined 10.28 per cent to
$7.85, while Beijing Enterprises Holdings slid 9.82 per cent to
$10.55 and Shanghai Industrial Holdings slumped 7 per cent to
$17.70.

Citic Pacific also continued its slide, falling 45 cents to $15.25.

A DBS Securities analyst said hedge funds had chosen weaker
stocks such as red chips and H shares as their selling targets.
These shares accounted for most of the volume during
yesterday's half-day trade.

The analyst also said fund managers might find mainland stocks
expensive, based on the assumption that the yuan would devalue

She said the red-chip sector should trade at a premium to the
market, based on an estimated 10 per cent earnings per share
growth for this year.But she said the H-share sector was
expected to underperform because of its poor earnings
outlook.

for us KITCO junkies:

Nando Times reported this week that the principal investigator for the Stanford
Lockheed Institute for Scientific Research in Palo Alto, California, Alan Title,
said to Reuters that sun storms and sun spot activity is increasing and will peak
around 2001. It could be strong enough to knock out pagers and kill satellite
power. He also said that high-fying aircraft could be exposed to high levels of
radiation although commercial aircraft would not be affected. One video taped
explosion on the sun was 55,000 miles long and 200 miles wide and
supposedly traveled at a rate of 2 million miles an hour.

Another scienteist at the American Astronomical Society's annual meeting,
David Lynch of the Aerospace Corp., told reporters that between 500 and 600
satellites orbiting the earth will be "sandblasted" by a Leonid Meteoroid Storm
due her November 17. Damage most likely will not occur he said but it can
create electrically charged plasma that could short-circuit computers and
damage other sensitive electronic equipment.

Thought you weren't coming back? Oh well, welcome back I guess
you seem to have calmed down, maybe a vacation was what you needed? Did you purchase the house? Shalom

I remember only a couple of years ago ( NOT medieval times ) when gold was ONLY $380 - $400 an ounce and I kept wondering when it was going to get serious and go on up to where ( I thought ) it belonged, $450 - $500 an ounce ( or higher ) . Now, it strikes me as ironic that so many talk as if $310 or PERHAPS $320 an ounce would be a STRONG move up!

And, Heavens to Betsy, it MIGHT even move up as high as $330! Gott im Himmel!

Come on guys, we're talking PEANUTS! Sometimes I almost wish I could go into a state of suspended animation and wake up two or three years from now when gold is ( I hope ) over $500 an ounce and making $20 and $30 moves a day ( UP! ) . Until then, though, I guess I'll just have to content myself with $3 and $4 per day moves, with an occasional Kitco rouser of $5 ( yawn ) . GOLD, you perverted yellow beastie, GO, GO, GO!

What price was gold at when Placer arranged the $600M financing? Is it still available at current sub $300 gold?
Things change.
One more tidbit: bankers aren't the brightest blokes on the block.

upon your revival, gold would not be valued in terms of dollars, but rather in terms of grams or ounces. And the price of gold would be in terms of service rendered ( mental or physical ) or product delivered.

got the picture?
got a hammock ( for a pleasantly brief nap ) ?

Are headlines "Retired Soldier and significant arrested last nite" 15 minutes after the lights went ount in their home, Dea swat team entered the premise and found retired soldier displaying his member erectus, a condition he cannot achieve without the aid of the controlled substance viagra due health infirmatives.

The couple had been reportedly smiling an inordinate amount recently which raised the neightbors suspicions, and resulted in their bing 9nvestigated ny DEA officials.

Retired soldier's reserve status has been terminated along with his
retirement bemefits. The couple leased their vehicles which were seized along with their home and bank accounts. The couple are being sued for the balance of their lease agreements and reported to the morgage company holding the title to their home.

Retired soldier pleaded not guilty to formal charges claiming he has had a remission in his debilitating medical condition, but as to date, he has not produced an erect member to substantiate these claims,

After reading every Gold pundits on the internet for the last year,
Do any of them know what they are talking about.

God what a day It makes agrown man cry.

Please Gold GO-Go -go

Ahhh, rest...that same theme with Argent's post. Seriously, no, the introduction of the Euro will not be inflationary from a fundamental standpoint of money supply because it won't change during the period that causes you concern ( overlapping use of currencies ) .
There will be an exchange rate locked-in for all 11 countries. To use your example in France ( where even now they are listing prices on goods in BOTH Francs and Euros ) , when the Euro enters circulation, it will only do so in replacing the given exchange rate number of FFrancs. It will be no different than, say, using two quarters instead of five dimes. The process is similar to banks in America swapping worn out bills for newly printed ones, although the exchange rate for that process is one for one. Euros for Ffrancs will be something close to one for six, I believe.

got conversion tables?
got aspirin?

Your point is well taken. That would suit me just fine. I still savor the scenes in movies where the guy fresh from the creeks comes into the assay office or mercantile store ( or saloon ) , tosses a poke of dust on the counter ( or bar ) and watches while tha proprieter weighs out what is needed. Even more fun is when the gold is in nuggets whose value far exceeds the amount of the purchase. In a stable, gold based monetary system, change in the form of gold or silver coin is a convenience I would not eschew.

Thank you for responding, I get the picture. Good comments.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.62. The 50 day moving average is 29.91

Me thinks that you may have assimilated a little Omar Kayam while quaffing small beers back in your college days. Go man go!

Folks, there is better than 50% probability that we may be experiencing
a financial panic within the next 60 days. All my studies, intuition and experience tell me -- a crash is near. Cash on hand will be very important
during this coming period. A very strong dollar and collapsing commodities indicate --the world is about to enter a NET deflationary phase with mounting unemployment and bankruptcies. In the past gold has always ( without exceptions ) skyrocketed during financial panics and I have no reason to believe otherwise. Interest rates are also collapsing ( as per my previous posts ) and this is further confirmation of the recessionary trend. God help us all, good luck.

When I see Dreifontein below $6.00 or BGR Precious Metals trading at a 30% discount to Net asset value, a bell goes off. I want to own them even if the bottom is not here yet. High reward, low risk over the next year.

They both rang the bell today.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .246. The 50 day moving average is .273. My database contains 20 occasions where the XAU has closed in the 72.XX range. The closing today, ranked according to the gold price, is #14. The #1 ranking was on 1/29/86 with a gold price of $389.30, an XAU of 72.99, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .187

Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.66. The 50 day moving average is 51.85

When the weather clears, and you get time, we'll go check things, Charlie

We'll see if the implosion continues in Asia, today. Concern levels are high. There appears nothing can be done or is being done to stem the tide. I hope gold ( and silver ) does provide some protection as advertised.

Based upon McClellan Oscillator theory, a bottom formation ( move below the zero line ) lasts for 4-7 weeks and is followed by a final quick spike down in the oscillator. This is where we appear to be right now. From here, a final and significant upmove should occur. If this takes us above +3000 on the McClellan Summation Index that I use ( issue adjusted ) , the bull continues. If it chokes ( likely ) , bring on the bear. I will let the numbers tell me what is in store.

That which is you... ( Listening to QUAH...Jorma Kaukonen with Tom Hobson ) might it be that my family might slake the thirst...I would send them to the well that is you and yours...

Palms up and scrunching good Oklahoma...yessss,....SIR...eeeeeeeeeee

Better carpets are being delivered................

ALWAYS WELCOME.........

Convenience ( and arrogance ) led us away from gold's use as money. How ironic that gold will become mainstream again through convenience via technology, the same technology that first destroys the current financial system from Y2K elements that are both actual and perceived weaknesses ( remember, CONFIDENCE is EVERYTHING!! ) , then provides a means for gold to be used as money...electronic verification of gold in account, and transfer of ownership of that same gold between buyer and seller through an e-gold ( tm ) -like system. It's really not much different than the checking system that we have today...minus the inflation, the usury, and corruption.

got gold?

well you know where.

No sour grapes down here, in fact the wine is quite agreeable..probably don't get so much of our good stuff up there besides.

Our seafood is fresh and we don't have genetically altered crap food, steroid filled beef and chicken. None of which, i might add, appreciated in kiwi dollars since the yank ballon began to swell beyond it's limits.

Live it up while you can yankee-doodle because the world backlash that is headed your way will wither your excessive appetites ( 24% obesity rates ) and bring famine in your precious greed markets for a good few years...if not for ever.

Americans generally are nice people but the ruling ( rich ) class are the most disgusting uncultured lot of greedy pigs that perhaps this planet has ever seen. Besides these clowns wielding nuclear weapons and their insidious slavery debt trap, Roman emperors and euro-royalty look like fairy god-mothers. If the yankee dollar is backed by the good faith and promise of these low-life forms then it is as slimy to the touch as they.

Time will bake it out to dry and shrival up like the worthless lies they spoonfeed to the well-fed masses. Only when the bellies begin to grumble will the guns begin to rumble and like a cancer this rotten system will be rooted out and culled in the streets. America you have only begun to pay the price for the goods you now grow fat on, when the time comes it will be like so many pigs at the slaughter. Ask yourself why is Ted Turner/Fonda, George Soros, etc buying up large self-sufficient tracts of land in S.America....who would want to be in rat hole central when the good people come looking for their food?

Meanwhile I'm getting paid in gold for good.

No offence ESS, just clarifying the meaning of toilet paper....hmmm I wonder if gold will see 300 squares before platinum? Wipe away.

I have SO much gold the ISLAND THAT IS LONG IS SINKING...NAMASTE'

CHEESEHEAD:

Explain how gold is going to overcome its cronic weakness in spite of the USD! It simply can't happen UNLESS there is a serious "meltdown" of US economic and political systems. This, I take it is your forecast.

What is more likely is a continued deterioration of gold price below $275 within the next 12 weeks, wherein "cash" becomes even more dominant. Equities are slowly being valued for what we all agree is excessive. US economy will likely begin to slow down on reduced export demand. Gold has a chance of making a comeback only if US fed reduces interest rates in an effort to offset the effects of growing deflation. This is likely in view of 2000 elections. There is no failsafe formula for stimulus as Japanese low interest rates are proof. Gold will be safehaven second only to US$. One good thing for goldbugs who dare to hang in -- $250/275 gold is the commercial bottom of the market.

I agree, things are beyond fixing, whether we get panic or slower price drops is debatable, but we shall see in any event. We disagree on holding gold stocks, if there is a panic, almost all equities are sold off, thats what panic does to shareholders of quality issues, they try to get what they can, problem is: weak buying liquidity. Things like margin calls, redemptions, human nature kick in and presto, there goes 30% off a stock that was already selling for a discount.

I think the same thing will happen to bullion, there is little out there to suggest that when the equity bull stops on a dime the herd goes immediatly into gold. Qualifier: unless a route in the US$ starts the panic. What we know the herd should do isn't always what the herd does!

If we see the panic you write of within 60 days I for one would want to be totally out of shares.

I want to agree with you, and the 60 day time-frame you specify can produce dramatic changes, but looking back at the data here is what I find: In 1929 the D/G ratio started dropping toward the 233 day moving average 4 months in advance of crossing below it. In 1987 it started dropping 2 months in advance. We started dropping 11 months ago, July of 1997, with a 7 ounce gap but are still 4.5 ounces away from crossing. We must drop .075 ounces per day to meet your 60 day objective. This stock market is hard to kill.

My thinking is your CB was among the first to sell off most of their gold making lots of noise in the process leaving nothing more than good faith and credit which must not be much considering the trend of the currency

I couldn't agree more. Confidence IS everything. Even the earliest bookkeeping systems wherein a receipt was issued for the amount of gold left with the "caretaker" was acceptable so long as the caretaker did not take liberties with the gold left in his safekeeping and loan out more than the total amount of the receipts. I think, here, the key word is INTEGRITY. Greed at the expense of honesty and integrity is what got everyone in trouble from the very beginning. Not much has changed since.

As an aside, if the post by JP ( a major warning ... ) , is anywhere near correct, that hammock may be all I need for a ( short ) nap before the fireworks begin. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Two years in suspended animation may have been a little on the long side after all.

In early October I will be there, looking for the edge of the island that is thereby taking on water. Hide your gold, because I REALLY like the stuff; and while I'm as honest as they get, the sight of such may affect my drinking skills...can't have that.

got wet feet?

check your local listings.

Really, no offense because you got it right. I just had to study your style a while. Comments always welcome, Charlie

Good report. The CPI has now been shown in a recent study to not be too high, as the govt has claimed, but to be too low. But then should we be surprised at our govt not giving us accurate figures? I think not. The current administration has fine tuned this area to an art form. But then considering the importance of psychology in the economic area maybe this isn't all bad? Naw, I still think the truth should be told, but then I am of the old school they tell me.

Thanks in advance!

Only mistakes you have made is that everything I own IS PAID FOR!House,3cars,GOLD,Guns ect I dont owe money on any of it.
Viagra at this moment is a LEGAL substance YES?

Your post to EB was something to smile about. EB is a fine fellow who seems to know which elbow works to scratch which ear. I find his primary offence to be that of 'optimism' with too scant penchant for 'self preservation'. I know we would all like to see EB assure us that he is well positioned against a "bad-case-scenario" because we look out for our friends, don't we?
Your thoughts on americans were relished, like a good hotdog should be, and savored with much beer.

Side note: is there a kiwi bullion coin, and if so, is it 24k ( 9999 ) ?
Any web graphics available if they exist?

What will take down Microsoft besides the Government of the USA? ... JAVA! As Microsoft goes so will the market!! And gold will be the new lifeboat, but only a few will have time to get on.

http://www.upside.com/texis/mvm/story?id=353629e70

Last time I checked, Australia and New Zealand were separate countries. : )
Just another 'Merkan pokin t'other's bidness...
FYI - this article has a list of CB sales since 1989
http://europe.cnnfn.com/markets/9803/19/gold/index.htm

It would be a big boost for people's confidence in money and the United States Government {and BTW would help the price of Silver}

IF -

Our American Government started issuing BILLIONS OF

ONE OUNCE SILVER DOUBLE EAGLES

WITH A FACE VALUE $20 AMERICAN!

Using the very same classic engraving as on the 1907 Gold Double Eagles as seen at:

http://www.si.edu/organiza/museums/nmah/csr/nnc/doubleea/doubleea.htm

To quote from the above site: "This coin inaugurated the series of gold 20 dollars, nicknamed "double eagles", which were issued from 1850 to 1907. The term "double eagle" is derived from the fact that the $10 coin is called an "eagle"."

And to top that off!

HALF OUNCE SILVER SINGLE EAGLES

WITH A FACE VALUE $10 AMERICAN!

To be USED AS DAY-TO-DAY MONEY they would have to issue BILLIONS of 'em to make up for all those that would get snapped up and squirreled away.};- ) {according the the US Treasury there were about 4.4 billion twenties in circulation as of Dec.97 - and likely about 1.5 billion tens}

Even if the price of silver went NUTS }:-0 it would still be less than $20/ozt so people wouldn't melt 'em down for bullion.

If Silver stayed over $10/ozt there would be lots of new supplies of it.

Near my town there are several large SILVER MINES which would reopen at those prices. A 10% increase in world Silver production {due to those prices} would be enough to mint a BILLION SILVER $20 DOUBLE EAGLES and a HALF BILLION SILVER $10 EAGLES every year.

And all the above great common sense reasons are why it won't be done and why it will be poopooed by the naysayers.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.....................Dancing with me MUMM on the lawn...

http://www.forbes.com:80/asp/redir.asp?/forbes/98/0615/6112198a.htm

The $ is the next to last refuge. Gold is the last refuge. Wouldn't
take a major meltdown just a substantial slowing of the U.S. economy
in response to the expanding trade deficit. This would lead to lower
U.S. interest rates. That's what gold needs to get going. The market
is technically strong. Look at all the bad news and it still doesn't
make new lows.

NZAU
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/coins/stillavl.htm
http://www.collectors.co.nz/xte_coins.htm

- Following are excerpts from the
question-and-answer session following Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan's testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Congressman: "When there's been discussion of Social Security, there
seems to be a breaking point on whether there should be individual
personal savings accounts if there's reform in Social Security, versus a
collective account. Given the way Washington is a very human
institution, I've got questions about a collective account. What are
you're thoughts?"

Greenspan: "I've testified previously that the availability of
individual accounts will create a much higher likelihood that our
retirement system, both private and public, will be fully funded. The
major problem I have with the existing pay-as-you-go system is that it
doesn't reflect the fact that you're trying to create a retirement fund,
you need real resources because people consume real goods and services
on retirement, and finance is merely a facilitator to create the
resources that will be available for both workers and retirees at a
particular point in time."

[OK, says Aragorn III, let's focus on that last detail before proceeding. Alan said..."The major problem I have with the existing pay-as-you-go system is that it doesn't reflect the fact that you're trying to create a retirement fund, you need real resources because people consume real goods and services on retirement, and finance is merely a facilitator to create the resources that will be available for both workers and retirees at a particular point in time." REAL resources, because people consume REAL goods and services...[whereas] finance is merely a FACILITATOR to create the resources at a particular point in time.] Back to Alan...

"And I've always argued that the full funding procedures that are
involved in the private sector are far more likely to create the real
goods that are required for retirement and, therefore, anything that
will move our Social Security retirement system, old age and survivor's
benefits, to a fully funded system is very helpful. And to the extent
that we can move to equivalent private accounts, I think that would work
clearly in that direction."

Alan is saying in veiled voice that rather than using our current approach, which is to provide the FACILITY ( via finance ) for the needed REAL resources to be created at the time when they are needed during retirement, we should instead let people use private accounts which are far more likely to generate the REAL goods with enduring value that will be needed during retirement. The FINANCE facility becomes more impaired with each passing year, loosing its ability to generate REAL goods as needed.

got food?
got shelter?
got gold?

If I knew where to vote on it I would cast one vote for the Forbes Web Site as the most annoying and frustrating.

CB's have not sold any gold at all on the open market...it has been shuffled from weak banks to strong in the time honoured "winner takes the spoils" manner.
The little western investor is being herded away from the metal to stop there house of faith from collapsing...but the tide is swelling. N.American investment gold demand is UP 40% in Q1...this is huge. ..the little guy will vote with his heart and gold over paper...just watch the bankers whistle a different tune then.
Eastern peoples have not been sucked in to the "new paradigm" crap raining down from the satellites...they still have poverty, famine to beat...so gold demand is rising here too.....tick, tick, tick...waiting for there next trick.

I know George Soros, Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan are to appear on CNN to say gold is overvalued and they'll be shorting the hell out of it all the way down US$50 ... and you'd all better jump aboard soon if you know what's good for you because the US dollar is better than gold.....in fact you'll have to hand it over because it's worthless, else we shoot ya!

If he's such a great gold advocate, why is he running the Fed?
Greenspan, in my opinion is about the lowest form of life found on this
planet. He makes most lawyers I know look like exemplars of integrity.
He's a man who knows better and sold his soul and what he knows to be
right out for political power and a "moment in the sun".

would yield enough Silver to mint only 30-35 million SILVER $20 DOBULE EAGLES and 10-15 million SILVER $10 DOUBLE EAGLES per year.
{I miscalculated on my metric tonne to ounces troy conversion}

According to the June98 issue of CRU precious metal monitor demand for gold in the first quarter of '98 dropped by 40% and scrap recovery increased by 128% as counties in Asia could no longer afford to buy gold and started to sell the gold they did have. Over-all, supply of gold was 450 TONS MORE THAN the demand for gold during the first three months of this year!!!!

http://www.cru-int.com/

A more sleezy, spineless opportunist never lived. He defended Michael Keating before Congress. He defended spend-more-tax-less Reaganomics. He is leading us to ruin by allowing the stock market to rise to ever more impossible levels by doing NOTHING. When was the last time he either raised or lowered rates? A Fed managed by a cheeze sandwich would have the same result.
-EJ

July silver looks like it wants to dip down further. If so its a buy under 5.20 tomorrow with an ojective of 5.80 +/- next week.

EB: Here are a couple for you and the fella snapping at your heels. .... It appears as if PL is reaching for a low at 350 ( good support ) for the third time since Jan 97. For this week, the market is really undecided about what to do next. If it breaks 350 ...... that might be a touch uncomfortable from the long side.

From a candlestick point of view this is a helluva good chart to study. Classic, easy to spot patterns everywhere. .... All turns were well marked. Both tops and bottoms.

The Feb 97 bottom was well marked by a low price Harami in the first week of Feb 97. Followed by a Harami top in March and huge Harami top in mid June 97. The top in Aug was also a nicely formed Harami. Coupled with the fact that PL was unable to extend beyond the June highs, it was inevitable that the downturn should follow.

Note also the nice hammer in mid Dec 97. It marked the bottom for the last rally.

The Oct 97 and Apr 98 tops were both marked by heavy engulphing patterns. ..... Note also that all of the patterns would have beaten ( preceded ) the MA crossover by a wide margin.

Or perhaps ( we hope ) Greenspan has spent his life positioning himself to make a difference. Once the fundamentalism that is gold-currency finds its way into your system, it is nearly impossible to root out, unless the soul of the man becomes utterly diseased and incapable of honest endeavor.

I concur...your 18:58 IS a must read. Fine work.

Describe Cold Spring Harbor.

Words from the past from a fine Nebraskan, that shed light on the meaning of Greenspan's dialog.
"We pass worthy laws through the House and Senate, and the president
signs. We attach a large penalty for violation and congratulate
ourselves that we have expressed the will of the people in laws. But
you, the Federal Reserve banking system, you hold in your hand a
mightier power, the power of money; for by this power you control God
Almighty's first law, the law of self-preservation. You, by the power of
money, can turn back the clock of time from civilization to dark past.
For no power on Earth to man for evil or for good can equal the power of
money."
- Rep. Charles G. Binderup ( D-Neb. ) , on the floor of the House on
October 6, 1938

got self-preservation?

EB: Here is the daily chart on PL. Today's action formed a modest hammer which could presage a change of trend. It's positive but it would be best to see the next two bars ( days ) to confirm the change. The bears have had the field since Apr.

Note the window in early Apr. It privided support for the first leg down from the top and then collapsed in late Apr.

http://europe.cnnfn.com/markets/9803/19/gold/index.htm

my rantings are more for the amusement of myself and others.

Miss Bee was in her eighties, and much admired for
her sweetness and
kindness to all. The pastor came to call on her one
afternoon early in
spring, and she welcomed him into her Victorian
parlor. She invited him
to
have a seat while she prepared a little tea.

As he sat facing her old pump organ, the young
minister noticed a
cut-glass
bowl sitting on top of it, filled with water. In the
water floated, of
all
things, a condom. Imagine his shock and surprise.
Imagine his curiosity!
Surely Miss Bee had flipped... or something!

But he certainly couldn't mention the strange sight
in her parlor. When
she
returned with tea and cookies, they began to chat.
The pastor tried to
stifle his curiosity about the bowl of water and its
strange floater, but
soon it got the better of him, and he could resist
no longer. "Miss Bee,"
he said, "I wonder if you would tell me about this."
( Pointing to the
bowl )

"Oh yes," she replied, "isn't it wonderful? I was walking downtown last
fall, and I found this little package. It said to
put it on the organ and
keep it wet, and it would prevent disease. And you
know, I think it's
working! I haven't had a cold all winter."

Some days ago someone was touting the brilliance of going long sugar. It was still in the 8.00 range at the time. ..... At the risk of incurring Bart's wrath, I thought it might be useful to post the sugar chart. Just for the hell of it and to point out that not all ideas are good ideas.

A longer term chart would show that sugar had good support at 10.25. That was sometime in the past. When it broke that support, it headed for hell. In a go cart.

Now the question is: is buy, sell or hold?

The good news is that there may be a selling climax in here. Somewhere around 700 maybe? But only because all the short sellers have cashed in and are now retired in comfortable quarters somewhere in the So. of France.

I was sent a neat conversion program at work today. It converts troy mass among many other things. Please e-mail me at filskov@flash.net for a copy. If someone is able to post files using ftp, I would appreciate it if you could e-mail me and post to the group.

The equities markets have been looking for anything to cheer them up
and at first took to Alan Greenspans words as being bullish with the
idea that if he didn't say anything outright bad it must be good.
After some time to read between the lines though, the market resumed
it's bearish stance.

Mr. Greenspan esentially said, right now things are good but......

''I remain concerned that economic
growth will run into constraints as
the reservoir of unemployed people available to work is
drawn down"

Meaning current growth cannot be sustained because we're running out
of workers.

Greenspan did mention a numberof factors that could ease
the shortage -- including the impact of Asian
financial turmoil on U.S. manufacturers. But, he said,
evidence of a slowdown in the U.S. economy ''still is
sparse.''

Meaning stil; no sign of immediately easing the shortage and prolonging
growth.

''Tighter economic policy,'' a euphemism for higher
interest rates, ''may be necessary to help guard against
a buildup of pressures that could derail the current
prosperity''

This was a statement made more for it's effect than it's possibility
of being actualized. The message being that interest rates would slow
economic growth, thus easing the possibilites of inflation pressure.
Surly, however, it takes time for the economy to respond and the more
immediate effect of a raise woukd be to draw even more dollars into
the markets from the foreign contingent. I would think then he is
trying to help jawbone such foreign investment down for fear that if
they put money in and rates raise their investments will go down. Better
to wait and see.

He also warned that stock prices had risen ''perhaps to
levels that will be difficult to sustain unless economic
conditions remain exceptionally favorable.''

Which menas things can hardly go up much lomger.

Right now, though, Greenspan called economic conditions
''as impressive as any I have witnessed in my nearly
half-century of daily observation of the American
economy.''

Which means things REALLY REALLY can't go up ,uch longer.

The nation's unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent in May,
is the lowest since 1970. Yet inflation, up at just a
0.9 percent annual rate during the first four months of
the year, is ''near price stability.''

''We at the Federal Reserve ... have not perceived to
date the need to tighten policy,'' he said.

We all know that.

''When we formulate monetary policy with the underlying
goal of maintaining maximum sustainable growth in the
United States, we are required to evaluate not only what's
going on in this country, but what's going on elsewhere.''

Meaning even though I said we might have to raise rates
in case of inflation, I really didn't mean it because
that would just make the problems in foreign markets worse.

He also said the the growing trade deficit was a "a
fundamentally unsustainable condition", meaning again
things can't go on like this much longer.

He also said it would be a mistake to use political
pressure to clamp down on trade with countries, such as
China, with which the United States has a large deficit.
Market forces will work to reduce the deficit over time,
and the low U.S. unemployment rate shows a trade deficit
on its own does not destroy jobs.

Meaning since things can't go on like this much longer anyway
the deficit will take care of itself, besides you're still
working, right?

Fixing the Year 2000 problem will take $50 billion
out of the U.S. economy, he said, and even then it's not
clear that will solve it.

Meaning, oh shit.

''We do not know what the impact will be ... even if the
vast majority of problems are eliminated,'' he said.
''Systems are very unforgiving. Software programs do not
allow for a single mistake. You cannot be approximately
correct. You're either right or you're wrong.''

The GOOD news is they're looking at it.

Your post prompted me to pull our my "Sugar 11-Plus Trade" book from the SuperInvestor Files. June-July is almost always the annual low price for sugar and it hasn't been below $5 on the chart I have since 1986. Before that, about $3 in 1985, $4 in 1984, then we have to go way back to about 1971 when it was lower than $5. Looks like long October sugar at $5 is a pretty good bet.

Having just read in an EC paper that, come 1.1.1999, the Commission intends to avail itself of its legal privilege--granted under EU protocols--to discharge its debt in EUROs, one can not but ponder the amount of DM denominated paper held by USG in their foreign reserves. Further, the question of quid pro quo arises; has this been a part of Germanys willingness to hold USG paper? Interesting, yes?

rates in order to stem the inflationary pressures ( which I think they're
behind the curve on ) . But if he raises rates, the already high dollar goes higher. He needs to let air out of the exuberant stock market, but
how do u do it without bursting the bubble and causing a 1929 style crash?
I think Farfel has it right and we'll be seeing stagflation. Not that I
fully understand or can explain it. Oh, well... Go Gold! Go Silver!
Fox-Man

fellow KITCOITES, that the Asian economy goes down the toilet!!
Even though Thialand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Tiawan,and New Zealand stock markets all hit new lows yesterday, that is not front page news here in the USA.
To get to the front page now requires death and destruction. So I will predict that last night was a walk in the park compared to what is coming tonight.I have been wrong before and could be wrong tonight, but as far as I can see the market fundamentals have only gotten worse in the past 24 hours. Lets watch and see.

Financing was in place for Dome as soon as title was granted to them instead of only work permits. This was for 70% as they had a partner ( CVG 30% ) . Of course PDG will say it isn't feasible. What else could they say to shareholders? Um, um, sorry but we just spent US$150 million proving up the richest claim in Venezuela and we never had title and now 25% of our reserves are gone.

KRY now has title and I believe what is before the supreme court now is to perfect the title ie. get all the mineral rights changed into KRY's name.

IMHO, if it was feasible for Placer at 70% it shouldn't be a "dawg" for KRY with 100%. Of course a couple o' dozen extra $ on POG never hurt : )

Introduction of the Euro Compilation of Community Legislation and Related Documents ( October, 1997 ) Article 23

23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US
dollars as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement shall be

Yup. I think their best bet is to let the plane nose on
over under it's own accord, and then to lower rates at
just the right time to come in for a soft landing before
the trees start to clip the wingtips.

I think you may be way ahead of the KRY curve, if your saying they have won and the court is just perfecting ownership. WOW thats news! KRY will loose the mineral rights issues still pending announcement, as they have lost all throught his process.

The 'dawginess' of las christinas is: low grade, sub 2 gm/t, mostly sulfide ore requiring milling, ~100M saprolite overburden ( mud ) in a rain forest, say 8 feet a year rainfall, how do they stack mud? what do they do with the tailings?

Last night was a night of surprises, and tonight could be
too, but hopefully not so dramatic.

What will the metals do during and after this nose dive??? Fox-Man

fellow KITCOITES, that the Asian economy goes down the toilet!!
Even though Thialand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Tiawan,and New Zealand stock markets all hit new lows yesterday, that is not front page news here in the USA.
To get to the front page now requires death and destruction. So I will predict that last night was a walk in the park compared to what is coming tonight.I have been wrong before and could be wrong tonight, but as far as I can see the market fundamentals have only gotten worse in the past 24 hours. Lets watch and see.

To see all those markets at new lows at one time was a big event. The best thing though was that gold held its ground. Tonight will be the real test. If they go down again and gold goes up, the dawn for the new gold bull will have arrived.

Yes it is mometarily a legal substance, and I'm pleased to hear your solvent. It was just the tought of people sneeking around buying viagra on the streets that caught my imagination. Imagine the sting operations,
30 unit swat teams kicking down doors, tv cameras focused on throbbing members police pointing, it was to much for me, I'm visualizing the consequences of a black market viagra.

If they make viagra illegal, will you risk all for one more smile??

Does anyone really think that the EURO will be structured to support gold in any manner what-so-ever, when gold is the anti-christ of the banking industry and empires?????????????

All: re sugar, plat, etc., I've posted one of my favorite sites for perusing old charts before, but never see it mentioned here. So I thought I'd put it up 'agin:

http://www.prophetdata.com/meats.html ( vegetarians, stay away from this page )
http://www.prophetdata.com/food.htm ( sugar, grains, etc )
http://www.prophetdata.com/industrials_metals.html ( gold, plat, copper, etc. )
http://www.prophetdata.com/energies.html ( guess what's here )
http://www.prophetdata.com/currencies.html ( ditto )
http://www.prophetdata.com/indices.html ( ditto )
http://www.prophetdata.com/england.htm ( will fix you right up )
http://www.prophetdata.com/other_foreign.html ( Winnipeg flaxseed, Pibor, etc., fer God's sake )

I like these charts because you can change the date range on the graphs and go back as far as the '70s, in some cases.

EB, sugar has me salivating . . .

Interesting that sugar peaked with gold in '79-'80 . . . so sugar may not be completely off-topic when it comes to gold . . . dunno, though. What the heck was going on with sugar in 1979?

Anyway, how'd 'ya like to be sitting on a couple million pounds and have it go to 64 cents?

BTW, anyone know the supply-demand picture for sugar? If supply/demand fall into place, I may pick up some of that sweet stuff . . . diet or no.

Earl, thx for the candlesticks! Intriguing stuff.

Great data page. Thanks

Be careful using those prophetdata charts for historical data.....the sugar chart looks to be back-adjusted for inflation - doesn't look anything like my real-price chart.

Did anybody in your Central Banks take Economics 101 ?
If you sell your gold, your currency will devalue........

I got no recipe for self preservation but a fine recipe for salted greespan.

Silverbaron: Yeah, I was wonderin' about that. My understanding is that Prophet back-adjusts only for rolling over contracts to the front month. In any case, your right to give the heads-up. The prices are not the actual prices. Hmmmm. . . Gotta be careful.

BCIWN: Your welcome.

Good to see Kitco prices and charts working again - keep it up Bart, we may need them before this week is through - expecting another test of 288 spot gold ( critical ) .

with a liking for the noble metal. Global business, on the other hand...

Is that salted Greespan, greespan, greasepan , or Geesepan?

I'm afraid that due to my time constraints, the information on the IMF $$$ won't be complete. But I found three avenues wherein they are or could be raking in the cash.

The easy one to see is their assessed fees, service charges and commitment fees that they charge the country who accepts their loans. These run from 1/2 to 1% of the amount loaned.

However, they have quite a bit of cash they're sitting on. And they pay no interest to member nations who have given them this money until it is loaned away to another country. So they're collecting a fortune in interest on these funds. I don't have the exact numbers, but I believe they have in the neighborhood of 10 billion in their accounts just making them rich.

Then, of course, is the main argument that their critics have: The deals they cut with member borrowing countries are always secret. Who knows what's going on behind closed doors?

They also have quite alot of US gold. In recent hearings, Ron Paul was arguing that they should return it to the US, since CB's say they don't need it anymore. Really rather funny, that.

http://www.policy.com/go.asp?url=/issuewk/98/0202/imf-paul.html

Just from this quick survey, I would guess these 7 guys in a little office in DC are pulling in a conservative $700,000,000 a year, just from fees, interest, and gold lending. Not bad for a little influence peddling and paper-pushing.

Easy to check their data, I think....'79 or '80 highs was $52.50 for Ag - I can't remember the Au high.

your=you're ( No more postin' without proofing first )

is a clever term about which I saw someone post today, assuring us that it was going to happen soon. But actually stagflation occurs late in the up cycle of the long economic wave AFTER inflation has gone on long enough to impinge upon economic activity. By all indications we haven't even started up the slippery slope of inflation yet.

WEll if they look fat, you want to trim em reel good, and then put em on a rack and bake reel slow, I think I would take those precations with greasepan cause he's so slippery and all.

Global business on the otherhand wants their cake and eat it.

They want the credit of fiat banks and the gold in the cellar too.

Stephane's gold analysis from France

ANALYZE OUNCE Of GOLD 287,7$ AND 300$ ARE CRUCIAL LEVELS. Gold always remains in its zone of inaction between 287,70$ and 300$. With the approach of zone 295-300$, gold finds very strong resistance made up by the bearish trend of short and mid-term ( in black on the graph ) - the bearish trend of long term ( in blue on the graph ) - the former bullish trend now a resistance ( pink on the graph ) - the weekly moving average ( in red on the graph ) These resistances are for the moment preventing the rise of gold. Indicator MACD continues its slow degradation, which must incite the most extreme prudence. If level 287,7-288$ is broken at the end of the week then a new downward movement with a minimum aim to level 278$ will appear. Only a rise over level 300$ would be very bullish for gold and the gold shares. I have always a neutral opinion on the evolution of POG for the mid-term .I will update next week the analysis based from the waves of Elliot, I would also indicate to you the installation of a graphic configuration which it will perhaps be necessary to fear for the coming weeks . I will update it next week
Probably it's my last translation because starting wednesday june 17 a subscription will be required by Stephane Look at Site http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml ABONNEMENTS ( SUBSCRIPTIONS )

1 AN ( 1 YEAR ) 1490 francs franais ( 250$US )


Ron: It's a long way from 7 to 64 cent sugar. Probably even farther than it is to 330 POG. Yes?

BTW, there is a body of opinion that advocates adjusting charts for inflationary effects. Grant Noble presents his case for such in "The Trader's Edge". Inflation adjusted charts are not commonly seen though and are scarce as hen's teeth. ...... or a decent tomato in Sacramento. Yes?

Yen weakness hurting China:PBOC chief

Remark signals Beijing's impatience over US, Japan stance,say analysts
By Quak Hiang Whaiin Hongkong

IN the clearest expression of concern by a senior Chinese official, the governor of the People's Bank of China, Dai Xiang-long, yesterday said the current yen weakness was severely hurting China's external trade position and its utilisation of foreign capital.

While Mr Dai pledged to keep the yuan stable, analysts contacted by
BT interpreted his comments as a warning that Beijing may be losing
its patience over the current stance of US and Japanese authorities.
They have allowed the yen to continue to fall, while expecting China
to continue to toe the line by not devaluing its currency.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/3/nfrnt01.html

Well, well...do the Chinese intend to make devaluation a weapon?

About the economy will soon become obvious. I just saw the movie Titanic and todays fatcat's preoccupation with stating repeatedly how great things are as they attempt to screw working people for profits and stk options reminds me of those being offered a brandy AFTER the UNSINKABLE ( sound familiar? ) Titanic hit the BERG and was doomed. Lest of course they cause panic. Grab on to your life boat boys and girls or be prepared to be sucked under. I think WE HAVE FINALLY HIT THE BERG!!

I hope to have enough on hand not to have to by on the black market! Otherwise maybe

Well well, what do we do now, we do not have the grain reserves anymore to buy peace and compliance amongst those with so many hungry mouths?
{:|

Silverbaron: I can't get Prophet's WWW charts for silver going back that far ( at least not for 1,000oz, 5,000oz, and MidAm contracts ) . But they do have a chart , which they label 'CCSI Silver', and that one shows a high of 64 in 1979, which must be a back-adjusted price; silver has never been that high, AFAIK.

I think Prophet is giving us charts that get the peaks in the right places, and get the relative heights of the peaks correct, but the numbers on the vertical axes are not right because of back-adjusting, but I will not swear to this. Do the peaks on their charts line up with the peaks on yours?

BTW, here is Prophet's definition of back-adjusting: http://www.prophetdata.com/back_adj.htm

with greenspan ( captain ) and clinton ( co-pilot ) they will not see the trees!

ROR: I don't know why but, inadvertance on your part, always seems to engender a sense of closure and completeness, on mine. You forgot to add your standard closing comment, so I will: "Long live Democratic Socialism". ...... There, I feel better.

Asia:"That G-iiiii-iant sucking sound"
Destruction of Capital and Credit all at once into a huge black hole from which there is no escape. Is it that we now see that event horizon?
Led by the prophets A.Greenscam and BJ "Con" Man. One way ticket to China, please.

excuse the irreverence,

Well, keep a rod next to the hot rod and go down in a blaze of smiles and glory, with the smell of hot cordite and sweet pussy filling your nostrils and a hot rod in each hand, what more can a man ask for.

Does anyone know when the Hong Kong market opens?

maybe the slippery slope of inflation, has been stabbed in the back!

They're still deciding if they want to.

Just checked Yahoo and everything that's open in Asia is down. Hang onto your hats!

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

Oh, I think Greenspan will see them. I am not sure he knows
how to speak Arkansas well enough to explain them.

Yeah, well I'd hang onto an empty grain silo if they hadn't torn them down.

Some of them just sorta blow up on their own.

Blobex ( tm ) double bottom. so far.......

All: Please correct me if I am wrong. I think the next few days are going to be very significant for gold. I agree with D.A. that, given the commotion in SEAsia, this price is remarkably good.

With regard to the Swiss gold purchase, ( again please correct me if I am wrong ) -- a Swiss group went short just before the sudden gold surge before the Euro announcement, and was forced to buy gold to cover their shorts.

Very promising if the shorts cannot push gold down below $293/oz with all of the deflation in SEAsia. Just how much gold is Hong Kong likely to sell anyway?

This may very well be a major turning point, as the downward push must be pretty big. But -- no matter what if we are to right this Gold bug Tsunami -- we must beware possible market suction of the regular equity markets in the US tank in a big way. I doubt this, quite yet.

maybe he should drop his pants!

yeah, they do that when there is a lot of room in them and gas builds up in them.

I meant to say 'ride this Gold bug Tsunami' not 'right this Gold bug Tsunami'.

Hong Kong opens at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, or 22:00 GMT ( ? ) . And, boy, can HK sometimes fall fast at the open. Any bets on tonite.....??? Go gold. Paper's over.

Methinks you got hold of some bad info. KRY does own title to 4&6 and this fact has been recorded by the Supreme Court in the National Gazette. Check it out! What is before the Supreme Court now has nothing to do with PDG. They are out of it, period. Please recheck your sources. There are many versions out there, and are meant to confuse people IMHO.

those interested in the bullish side of PMs. Apparently, gold has broken out on the upside on his charts in Australian Dollar terms and according to Bill, the Australian gold market tends to lead the US gold market. If you agree with his thinking, most would be a buyer at these levels. Also, isn't it interesting how with all of the bad news over the past 2 days gold has held up. Seems to me that the rally that started this week is not nearly over and that much better prices near term are in the offing.

Zounds ! The golden eagle Silver Spot Price Chart is working again !

This is truly momentous. Could be a good omen?

Here's are some highs and lows in the sugar data if you want to check it out: '72 hi at about 10, lo at about 6 late in the same year...next major peak end of '74 at about 65...next major low in '78 at about 8...next major hi end of '80 at about 46...mostly downtrending from there to a low in '85 at about 3 ( all prices US cents/lb )

Are you talking about silos, or politicians?

we had one blow up out here a few years ago, they draw moisture when there low and moisture with grain is one explosive SOB. That's why the measure the moisture content before they put the grin in the elevators and run them dryers and everything, but when they get low they draw moisture anyway and KABOOM.

Here's my # 13187646. Just add me to your list and click on chat. That should work. Can't promise to be at my computer all the time, but feel free to drop in!

It's benn holding real well. Who's doing the buying?

Have you got ICQ loaded?
it's at www.icq.com.

Gold's latest fall in price has been attributed to the announcement by the European Central Bank that it will hold only 10 to 15% of its reserves in gold. Gold investors had been predicting, or at least hoping, for a 20 to 30% figure. That number, in conjunction with the strength of the US dollar has helped to push the price of gold and silver lower. Market analysts are uncertain which way the price will go in the near term, although the pending announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on what will happen to interest rates in the US could have a decided effect. Increased rates will likely make the dollar more attractive and push gold downward yet again. ( Jun 10/98 )

http://www.info-mine.com/daily.news/dp-jun11-98.html

Sorry if it was already posted here.

Gee, I don't know about that one. I know if it's going
to be momentous Bart's not working. What heppened back
in history when golden-eagle was working?

Jeez, I sure hope gold broke upside in Australian dollars. That's the way the way they planned it anyway.................

Who recognizes the value of gold? The answer may be found by simple inventory of the entities who own and hold gold. Central banks must love the stuff...they have one-quarter of the entire world supply ever to have been mined. Most citizens don't want it unless they recognize an opportunity to profit on it. It is all about competition over the world's scarcest of resources, so naturally the view of the citizens ( who greatly outnumber the central banks ) is craftily influenced in such a way so as not to interfere with central bank accumulations of the precious metal. This leaves the CB's ( as well stated in Kiwi's earlier post ) to wrangle amongst themselves for the gold. Maybe you even recall my post a few days ago assuring you that the Russian gold being sold would never make it into YOUR hands, no matter how hard you tried. We must be content with the crumbs available through our bullion dealer. ( If these crumbs were NOT made available, public sentiment would turn 180 degrees and the game would be up for the central banks ) .

So, why is the POG what it is? Is it possible for you to conceive that in a gold war, there could be regional alliances just as in a conventional war? Some CBs conspire to wrest the gold from the weak hands of another CB...not too hard to imagine. Perhaps a small group could participate in a scheme like the IMF, giving paper relief in exchange for hard assets from financially beleagered countries. Perhaps gold might even be rounded up from the common citizen--donating for the good of the country. Sound familiar ( SEAsia ) ?

OK, so alliances ARE possible. Next up, the EURO. Victim, the USA.
First of all, the Euro, as currently laid out, is a fiat currency. The Euro-11 countries have a present M1 equivalent to 1.4 Trillion Euro dollars. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has complete discretion on the size ( up to 50 billion Euros ) and make-up of the reserves. 50 Billion reserves versus 1,400 Billion in issued circulating value does indeed a fiat currency make. Can you not see that the "backing" reserve value constitues only 3.5% of the outstanding circulating currency? The Governing Council might even choose ( or perhaps already have ) to establish reserves LESS THAN 50 Billion. Enough on that point.
Article 30, Statute of ECB of the Maastricht Treaty leaves it to the Governing Council to establish gold at zero% to 100% of these reserves. Even at 100% gold, assuming the maximum 50 Billion reserve value, gold would need to increase in value by a factor of nearly 30 to provide a one-to-one relation of currency to reserves. Using gold as 10% of the 50 Billion Euro reserves ( 5 Billion Euro value in gold ) , if all other paper went down in flames, this little amount of gold would become the only de facto backing for the Euros in circulation. In that scenario, a one-to-one correlation of circulating Euros to gold reserves would require an increase in gold's apparent valuation ( price ) by a factor of nearly 300. Under any scenario, if/ ( when ) the world returned to a true gold standard, with one-to-one convertability of currency for bullion, it is obvious that you fare much better if you are holding gold at the time because the exchange rate becomes enormous. But I have digressed...

So, why is the current price of gold low, why did the Euro Governing Council indicate a low gold target for total reserves, and what can we expect in the future?

Gold is low now for several reasons. If you can accept the notion of CB alliances, this scenario is obvious. Many events in the world are coming to a head. How many are chance, and how many fit the master plan? Remember, supplanting the USDollar as world reserve currency is the ultimate end here. CBs make convenient announcements at the proper times to help drive down the price of gold ( although the open market through the advent of forward sales has done wonders toward this end without any extra CB assistence ) . If a weak, non-alliance CB cannot be pursuaded to sell their gold holdings, a strong alliance CB simply announces a sale of some gold ( which goes directly to another alliance member CB ) . Or perhaps the mere hint of a sale is enough to do the job. POG falls over time as orchestrated, and citizens therefore largely avoid the stuff. On the one front: Weak countries ( SEAsia ) are pushed over the brink of the financial abyss, and via the IMF, hard assets ( including gold ) are received by the strong hands in exchange for "strong paper". A low POG ensures that the maximum amount of gold is attained in the process. This may be a coincidence. One the other front: The various CBs within the European Monetary Union are not overly anxious to yield up their national treasure for centralized control. Certainly SOME gold is required to gain an edge over the USDollar, but individually the CBs do not want to part with any more than is necessary. Fortunately, any token amount will suffice, say, 5 Billion Euro value ( approx 600 tonnes ) of the total 50 Billion reserves ( =10%, as 'announced' by Duisenberg ) . Already some of the world's paper currency is on fire, and the flames are spreading.
The gold sales I mentioned earlier, most notably from Belgium, could very well be understood to be their advanced gold contribution to the ECB ( European Central Bank ) . Perhaps it was purchased by Germany, for example, and earmarked for the ECB. When the time comes for each country to contribute their share of the agreed-upon reserves, Belgium will only be providing paper, whereas Germany ( in this example ) will be handing over largely gold, yet it represents just the tiniest fraction of thier national treasure. France, for example, contributing their fair share of the gold ( based upon the EMI formula for contribution of capital at 21.8% of the total ) , would only be parting with approx 125 tonnes, which is only 5% of their national treasure ( gold ) .

With the launch of the Euro ( having even this *tiniest* fraction of gold as OFFICIAL reserves ) there now exists a rival to the USDollar. Would an unstable USDollar boost the Euro? YES. Will the very existence of the Euro tend to destablize the USDollar? YES. Is this a bit of a vicious circle of weaker USDollar and strengthening Euro? Yes. But, where is gold in the mix? Other currencies are burning around the globe, and the USDollar shows its first signs of vulnerability. As the USDollar is sold, the POG rises ( as it IS after all priced in terms of Dollars ) . The mix of paper instruments and currencies that make up 90% of the ECB reserves lose value as they turn to ash, and the reserve of last resort is all that remains, 600 tonnes of gold valued at what-you-like. Meanwhile, Germany, France, and Italy remain the content individual owners of over 90% of their original quantity of national treasure, gold.

So there they sit, controlling interest in the world's new reserve fiat currency, which *at their option* they could make 100% convertible ( to gold ) through a natural or dictated re-valuation in gold. And there they also sit, swinging their legs, whistling upon their mountains of national gold. Who has the money, AND has the gold, HAS the power. No conspiracy here, just cooperation among a small handfull of people with a common interest. A simple, national interest: A standard-of-living in Europe to rival that once known in the USA.

got gold?

Earl: 7 to 64 cents: Humongous! The stuff dreams are made of . . . and, unfortunately, unrealistic . . .

Back to sleep . . . Reality sucks.

Incidentally, I found a table for the 'GDP deflator' on the web once and converted all my back-adjusted gold, silver, platinum, and bean data to inflation-adjusted data as well, hoping something would pop out of the subsequent analyses I ran . . . alas, it was a big flop . . . but very, very, interesting. Haven't given up on it, because adjusting for inflation is the only thing that makes sense to me.

Sacramento tomatoes of the commercial variety . . . ugh! Even the bugs won't eat 'em. They make tomato sauce and ketchup out of 'em -- and no doubt red paint, too!

OTOH, some of the best tomatoes I've ever had, I've had here . . . If you can find a friend with a few vines of Park Whoppers, you'll be in tomato heaven . . . guarandamntee it.

( :{ )

I live here in Wichita where the latest grain silo explosion occured.
You've probably heard about it on the national news. There are 4 confirmed dead, and they still haven't uncovered two that are in the
tunnel area. What devastation. I heard the blast from my house that
morning. I didn't know what it was till a few hours later.
Fox-Man

if we devalue the US$ gold will REALLY fly............

Looks like this is the meltdown. What could possibly save it now?
HK: -223.07 -2.80%
JP: -274.77 -1.79%
JP is 64 points away from breaking 15000.
Those who discard Gold will be justly punished, yes?

GM

Nope, i don't but I will tonight. Yeah the grain is serious shit, we bought a lot of mileage by feeding hungry mouths over the years, but we're out of gas so to speak.

You know the old saying, don't bite the hand that feeds you or the tit that gives milk, well they;re suckin on a dry tit now, what do you think they're going to do, sittin over there on all them nnnnnukes??????

Already down 350- could be a freefall with a SPLAT, a couple of double loops , and a triple toe twister to top it off!!

who's doing the buying. Nobody sends a telegram except the touts who we don't ( shouldn't ) follow. All I'm saying is that in prior months, when there was bad news and gold had the opportunity to go down in price, it did so with avengence. Now with bad news like Swiss going to sell, EC holding only 10-15%, yen rising and making new highs vs. the Dollar, gold has been rising and digesting. Seems to me that the trend has changed. Could be wrong, but the indications are on the plus side.

...because I cannot bear it when Economics undergraduates like yourself post sheer nonsense on this forum.

...STAGFLATION is simply, in layman's terms, rising interest rates in the face of declining growth. It is an anomalous, paradoxical economic condition that can arise at any stage of an economic cycle ( except where an economy is already reduced to rubble ...certainly not the condition of America's current boisterous economy ( with all its hidden, potential, sky-high, aggregate purchasing power "temporarily sleeping" in the form of vastly over-appreciated stock market values ) ) .

Our new international economy, in which the world's leading debtor also represents the reserve currency for the world, gives rise to the anomalous economic condition of stagflation. Naturally, one would expect such an anomaly given the sheer absurdity of the world's leading debtor calling all the global economic shots. Moreover, given that the global economy today is so much more interlinked than it has ever been, such an anomalous condition is to be expected. Pure inflations and pure deflations are products of simpler economic times when Old Keynesian economics reigned supreme and the leading creditor country provided the global reserve currency. Remember that old fairy tale? Today, when a country changes its interest rates, the effect on its domestic economy is often completely neutralized by the effects on the international economy. It has become almost impossible for a country to complete control its domestic economic destiny owing to interlinked outside economic forces acting against the intentions of domestic economic policies.

We are almost 20 years since the anomaly of stagflation first arose in America....it has been suppressed and/or avoided by every machination known to American financial and economic mavens and is ready to rear its ugly head once again.

Watch Out!

Thanks.

F*

I'm with you on that. In addition to the political side, the other reason I got into gold stocks was the fact that gold was not rising with inflation the way I thought it would. Conversely, maybe ( he said hopefully ) it won't drop with deflation.

story of the 1930's, which all the deflationist goldbugs ( oxymoron? ) tout,relies totally on devaluation. Deflation means down, devaluation means sort of down/sort of up.

means incis ( or ) ively..............

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Mozel2.html
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Gollum.html
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER21.html

The real definition of Stagflation is "Amale horse with a big olhardon."
That is the reel definition according to Mr. Weebsters dictionary.

I can reason that moisture generates a great deal of heat, but the explosion itself would be a result of the near-infinite surface area of dust particles in the air. Because of the tremendous surface area, oxygen is in contact with a very large amount of cumbustibles. Any spark then results in an explosion. This same principle is used in the design of rocket motors--and carburetors for that matter. Just throw dry flour into the air in the presence of a flame. KABOOM !

What do you think, when you got to sell 3 cows to buy enough feed to winter one? I think you boy's been watchin the wrong green stuff.

TOKYO, June 11 ( UPI S ) _ Stocks are ( Thursday ) heading sharply lower in
Tokyo spurred by overall gloom about Japan's and other Asian economies.
At mid-morning the key Nikkei index of 225 selected issues was down
178. 77 points _ 1.17 percent _ to 15,160.49. The broader-based Tokyo
Stock Price Index was also lower.

That may be true, all I really know is it is a lot safer and better if they are kept full.

I agree it looks promising, and that's kind of why I'm wondering
about the buying interest. True, up is up, but the duration of
up is a lot different if it's just some locals sweeping the market
than if some central bank has decided to build it's reserves a
bit while the building's still good.

Greenspan's talk can be interpreted a lot of different ways, but
if some central banker interprets it to mean there's a good
possibility the dollar could begin to weaken before much longer
and that very same banker is sitting on a ton or two of dollar
reserves it could get him to thinking....

No mention of this was made in Washington. It's difficult to predict support areas when your in uncharted waters. The Australian dollar

GM

WASHINGTON, June 10 ( UPI S ) _ A spokesman says ( Wednesday ) President
Clinton will deliver a major address on China Thursday as a prelude to
his forthcoming journey to the communist nation. Clinton defended his
decision to make the state visit to Beijing, starting June 25 despite
criticism of China on human rights abuses.

Senior officials from the six-nation Contact Group on the
former Yugoslavia have proposed setting a deadline for
the Yugoslav president, to end the violence in Kosovo -
or face possible military action.


The officials, meeting in Paris, said
both sides should be told to stop the
fighting, resume talks on the status of
Kosovo, and organise the return of
ethnic Albanian refugees.

The Contact Group's foreign ministers
will decide on Friday whether to
endorse the proposals.

The Contact Group has representatives from the United
States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and Italy.

Many thousands of ethnic Albanians have fled from their
homes as a result of Serbian attacks.


Crowds of ethnic Albanians
took to the streets of Kosovo
again on Wednesday to
express their support for the
Kosovo Liberation Army,
which is fighting for
independence from Serbia.

In London, the UK Prime
Minister, Tony Blair, told
parliament that Mr Milosevic
would respond to diplomatic
pressure only if it was
backed up by the credible
threat of military force.

They were working as hard as possible, he said, to get
the necessary support for that course of action.

Mr Blair was referring to efforts by Britain and the United
States to obtain a Security Council resolution
authorising the use of force.

The American Defence Secretary, William Cohen, said
he hoped the shelling of innocent people could be ended
without military means, but it was not ruled out.

Mr Cohen will be attending a meeting of Nato defence
ministers in Brussels on Thursday which is expected to
order planning for possible air strikes against Serbian
forces in Kosovo.
( from bbc )

Cyclist: Noted your comment about the Germans. The Germans will be carrying on their shoulders the debt of a number of more indebted coutries, very much like the role of the US as the world's currency. However, I think that is where the analogy ends, as I am pretty sure the Germans have more net assets/GNP unit than the Americans, despite the massive German entitlement load and their massive unemployment. This is not a good time for any country to take on a 'voluntary' debt load.

The weaker will be supported by the stronger, to the detriment of the stronger. This does make some sense, as long as the stronger are not pulled down to the point of collapse.

What I find ironic is that a country that is better off than us is reluctant to take on what we willingly partake, even though our finanicial status is weaker per capita than the German one. This just shows you just how bad our delusions really are.

LOWS.

July Silver @ 5.32 Fox-Man

Oh, I think they are going to devalue the stocks alright, but it
will probably be by introducing the idea of a decimal point....
...and then moving it to the left.

President Clinton ha s admitted to buying "knee pads" for Ms. Lewinsli'S tender knees.The knee pads were "made in the USA"
My interpretation of this is, even the president is concerned about the Asian financial crisis and the trade deficit and is doing something about it.
GO BILLY BOY GO!!!

Don't you think we should have been adding to our farmlands instead taking away from them, when even an idiot knows more people means you need more feed. Well, while we've been improving our farming technology we've been reducing were we're going to use it, does this make any sense to anyone. Government regulates food production so heavily, there is very little incentive to get into it in the US, they've screwed the farmer until he's ain't even a bum f**k anymore.

I will concede that there is a tremendous amount of smoke in the air over las christinas.
Then again I'll stick to the PDG ownership assertion.

Silverbaron: Just looked at Prophet's WWW data for sugar#11. The peaks and troughs are in the correct places, but Prophet's absolute prices do not agree with your data. Even the relative sizes of the peaks do not agree!

Just back from that part of the world, and the Serbs think they know the resolve ( NOT! ) of Europe. Sad to say, but true.

We are seeing history, this little band of stalwarts peering at
our screens through the night. History. And the world sleeps on.

It was basically the farmers who made the country. I guess next
they move them all to farmer reservations.

Then they'll go to their refrigerator and find it empty...

So are my eyes. Japan is awash in red from entirely other sources, with the Index within points of breaking 15000.

I must refuel following that post that should more appropriately have been submitted during European/American market business day. Nonetheless...

got comments?

Join us there....

Sorry to hear about the bloody finger and eyes. I suggest a hot bath with ice pack on the eyes until they stop bleeding.

I think 2202 was a good one, but we are all overloaded and no one pays any attention to anyone else here anymore. We used to have food fights, and people actually interacted; but I sense that astronomical losses in gold-related investments have turned many inward and bitter.

IS there a PPT? WAS there a PPT? Perhaps they have Shot their WAD, unfortunately, so anything henceforth must be real. Even Manipulated Market learn, and adjust, and discount for the artificialities. There may now be an opportunity to see free markets at work.

And I consider myself and others the attentive students.

Either way, it is a fascinating story.

Want to get a reality check, check out the dumpster behind your favorite grocery, and see where all that produce comes from, south of the border you say.

When they first got Nafta thru the mexicans slaughtered off their breeding stock to sell to the new mexican Yuppies, because the price got so high, well that was mistake that they learned the hard way, we sent them new breeding stock.

I see us importing grain and hay too, one of these days, if we can out bid the world.

Japan Nikkei...225...10:02PM...15064.49...-274.77...-1.79%

Waiting for other programs to shut down, with Kitco always the last window open...letting in the nightly breezes. I'm almost outta here for the night.
Welcome to a fine association of individuals...the best collection of butterflies you'll find ensnared in ANY web.
Thanks for the nod of approval. The headache remains mine to attend to...

got aspirin?

I tried to contact you earlier today to tell you that Kitco took a pole to see if any of us had lost any money in gold. The results are posted back at 21;15.
The fact of the matter is none of us have lost any money and we are bitter anyway.!

What will we feed the grain and hay to?

Which I am not, and I held a ton of Dollars, I would be worried that the Euro would be competition for their attention. ( Just like when a new, beautiful gal moves into town. ) Accordingly, I would be looking for the opportunity to switch some of my ton to experiment with the new gal ( EUROS ) . It may not work out, so I wouldn't play with too much at first. But I would play. If the new gal ( Euros ) turns out to be firm in her resolve, I think I would play a bit more until such time as I felt that I knew her well and then I might forget about the Dollar. Sound familiar? It's basic life all over again. People are fickle. If they think the new currency has any value, they will play with it. Automatically, the Dollar has competition and the massive buying tends to dry up.

We can use the grain to make alcohol. After that , I'll eat almost anything!!

Y2K as you mentioned in your analysis. Am I missing something? Did it come up in Q&A?
-EJ

Nothing,
We know,
Is always what it seems
And who amongst us
Can separate or tell
Dreamer from dreams
Or walk with sure feet
The narrow edge
That separates
A long dreamed heaven
From a long feared hell

Who knows
The twist of fate
The hard decision
That transforms the hell
Into desired heaven

Who knows?
It is best to pray
And have
That inner guidance
On the long hard way

Oh I agree, but the Euro is in kind of a different time frame
for the momeny. The more you lose in the way of reserves as
the dollar goes down, the less you will have to trade for Euros
when the time comes.

Gold, however, would be a good place to move funds into while
waiting. If the dollar goes down, your reserves are preserved.
If the dollar does not go down, gold has already gone down so
far it won't go much further, and even if it does you are a
central bank. You can just isuue an annoucement that you are
going to add to your gold reserves and when the suckers come
running you can get your Euros.

I will have to digest it- just came on. It sure looks good to me on first glance.
Thank's for your effort. I always enjoy yours.

has steadied himself after a 200 point blow below the belt and is up and ready to go again. From looking at him from a distance ,I am not sure he knows up fronm down!! Well, thats enough for me . I can't watch any longer. I would rather watch something less violent, like "NIKKEI!!!"

GM

You, know, there's no place for an indepth discussion of grains here; I'll be at Kitco B&G 10 more minutes.

Else,

Bye

Good night and god bless you all , and gold is at 293.5 @ 11pm, ny time.

That's why they are keeping the gold price down and the Dollar up, at least for now. Everybody "knows" that when the Dollar is strong, gold is weak. I think it is a given that the European CBs have lot of US$. Euros are not trading as yet, so why make them strong and undesirable at the present time. Better, keep the US$ strong and exchange overvalued US$ for Euros when the time comes ( 1/1/99 ) . They have lots of US$ to convert, so why deprciate them now. Later on, as the issuance comes nearer, they can start moving the money over ( probably in some form of hedging transaction ) . Once they have start issuing the Euros, look for a distinct change in the way they start looking at gold.

FOX-MAN, Would you please post the URL for after-hours gold price.

Thanks in advance...

Southern Baptists say boycott `bothering' Disney -- 6/10/98, 10:33 PM

HighRise

From a previous post I seem to recall that the BIS, the central
bank of central banks said something about the dollar not being
able to hold it's value...

Last week, golden-eagle was hit with a bunch of accesses from the
Swiss....

Last Friday I think it was, gold was hit with a lot of buying from
the Swiss....

Gold took off kind if fast but was set back down by the %10-%15
announcement While the Swiss quit buying ( from D.A. ) .....

During pressure from world record falling markets, gold is holding
up.....

Could the Swiss be taking out a little insurance policy just in
case the dollar should start to go down before they get all comfy
in Euro's? They have an awful lot in $US reserves.

Gold will be the ULTIMATE and FINAL DESTINATION for saving and protecting wealth when BOTH the US stock market and bond market mania bubbles are finally pierced by the destruction of the US dollar as THE world reserve currency by a gold-reserved Euro. I believe the stockmarket bubble has already started to implode and the next bubble to burst will be the flight-to-quality US bond market! By the end of this year when the Euro is established, the US dollar will be trashed, the bond market will implode and US capital will surge into gold as the last remaining store of wealth. Y2K will only hasten this inevitable process as the US dollar is revalued by gold into the many thousands and a two-tier currency system is put into place! Add a little American political crisis, a Greenspan resignation or retirement, a military miscalculation anywhere, a nuclear war in S. Asia or the ME and there won't be any gold to purchase anywhere at any price!

sniff...sniff... paper.

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

-EJ

Re that 22:02 post:
BRABO! BRABO! So as the Asian Contagion rolls on the CB's tell the political leaders of the "disaster du jour": Sure we'll help bail you out. We'll make entries in our computer programs and maybe even ship you some of our special paper so you can stay in power and all you have to do is send us something tangible. Like, um, I dunno, some of that yellow metal. All it does is decline in "value". So really we're doing you TWO favors. Aren't we nice? Hmmmm, that's all you have? Why don't you collect some from your subjects? Oops, I meant citizens.

"'Bubble' is a misleading metaphor for what happens when greed temporarily overcomes fear in a collective psyche. 'Boil' would be better, because when a boil bursts it leaves a hole."

-EJ

Actually they can start the move now. Surely the chaos in the
various currency markets must have them a little nervous.
And they don't have all that good control over the strength
of the $US what with the Asians and Austrailians and Russians
and who knows who else all running around all wild eyed.

But.....they have MUCH better control over the sentiments in the
gold market. What better place to quietly move their reserves
than to get as much gold as quietly as possible while dumping
dollars onto the panicked flight money people? Then later on
shift into Euro's

I must report to you that the B-in-law who follows Pten....told me tonight that he again is "nibbling" at this level and several of his clients will be doing the same next week...for what it's worth! ( approx $10 ) ! studio.

Well you might want to check out the history on grain prices, which I believe was about $3.60 a bu. in 1860's, when Au was about $12.oo @ oz.

Well I don't know as to putting them on reservations, but we've used their grain a the carrot for so long to so many. what do we do when it's gone????? Do you think they've manipulated the price to remain baisically at the same level for over a hundred years, thru any and every kind of sudsidy and contraption you can think of, that when it's finally gone and there is only enough for us, somebody isn;t going to think we should still share?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/sec_releas_2.html

he Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday it will issue a more clear,
concise definition of what constitutes material information companies must disclose to remain compliant with Year 2000
requirements.

for salted bureaucrat.

Lihir in the mail now.
Sorry for the delay.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980610/V000684-061098-idx.html

Great insight into the pimp's ( IMF's ) take......how would you like to have the key to Camdessus's deposit box @ Swiss Bank?....the contents being very heavy and shiney, huh? ohmy.

PS don't eat the cow that's your cash crop.

NIKKEI up ever so slightly to 15070.
-EJ

It does make a lot of little pieces fit, and as we all knpw
the Swiss are not amatuers at moving gold around on the sly.
Or currencies either.

I already fed ol' Bessy the last of my seed corn so why not?

Boy don't you know nothin' each u dem cows has six calfs each year, u trade 3 offn' for grain an' stuff and sell 2 for gold and such, and them the 1 u gots' lef' breads itsef' and next year u got 6 more. So's you got to hav grain and hay dummy.{:|

whats the odds on Japan anouncing permanent tax cuts in the next few days.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980610/V000983-061098-idx.html

NaCl

Well, I'm just a city boy and I was feelin pretty hungry and
I guess I just got carried away and...

Brother, can you spare a cow?

Was wondering if perhaps the Aussie mail system had collapsed or something! : ) Thanks again for your kindness! Keep us all informed as to any more warnings from OZ. By the way, how's your boy doing in Suhartoland? Hope all is well! My son is headed for the Dominican Republic in a couple of weeks to experience firsthand what life is really like in a third-world banana republic and the way it could be one day in the US if we continue on our present course of livin' on borrowed play money.

GM

Boy where u from, if u're that hard up, u stand her up wind of so's some ol' bull come along an tear u're fence down, then u'se tie him up an sell him back to de owner for more seed corn dummy. {:|

Methinks the Chinese are having their bit of fun ( as they did with WTO ) 
An influential Chinese newspaper, China Economic Times featured editorial said the the renminbi would not have to be devalued even if the yen declined 20% from its current level. This on the same day the
Central Bank suggests that, "oh my, we're having a Very Difficult Time because of those Americans, because of those Japanese."

One understands why it is called Chinese Water Torture!

Boy where u from, if u're that hard up, u stand her up wind of so's some ol' bull come along an tear u're fence down, then u'se tie him up an sell him back to de owner for more seed corn dummy. {:|

They are under a lot of pressure to do something or another. They
just haven't got a clue. They only reason they are still gasping
for air is that the price of oil is down so far. Japan has very
little in the way of natural resources. If the the price of oil
should go up any before they get 'er started again they might as
well pull the plug.

http://www.anc.org.za:80/ancdocs/briefing/nw19980609/8.html

Hope you're right about that, too. I got into gold, instead of, say, grains, because I thought it was a simpler thing to understand: No worries about the weather, or the number of hamburgers on the hoof, or the price or quality of fertilizer, or other farmer logic, or govt subsidies and regulations, or tarriffs, etc., etc., complicating the picture . . . how little did I know! . . . Kitco has taught me that gold is anything BUT simple.

Thank you.

hows that work out for you, 1 nice 1 and 1/2 inch thick prime rib boy!!
still got a little moo left in there.

Did you see the post by Jin last night about the decline in Chinese currency on the Black Market? You can usually count on that. There will be a devaluation sometime. Also; Japanese upward revaluation. I have a new post ready.

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980610/japan_new__1.html

not a gov; issue buckle.

The dollar chalked up a fresh seven-year high against the yen, reaching 141.90 yen by noon.

HighRise

This is the ol' Gollum signing off

Must be quite a scene there. Lots of Sun workstations with alerts going BEEEEEEEP! BEEEEEEP! BEEEEEEEEEP! More than the ususal running around and yelling into telephones. Think I'll have a shot of B&W Smirnoff and be glad I'm not there.
-EJ

This bottom-line enhancer merger was a 'Sure Thing'. Guess what -according to the article anyway-cut $180mn from the bottom line?

They couldn't get the computers to integrate/migrate information: money posted to wrong accounts, with the liability of paying out to the person for whom the deposit WAS intended; and these non Y2K problem computers didn't know where they had incorrectly put the money, so it was not recoverable!

So, might we not expect unexpected difficulties from all the y2k 'solutions' that are in place? {:- )

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980610/business/stories/dollar_1.html

Today I heard on one of the networks ( Bloomberg, CNBC, etc ) that the inflows into the mutual funds continue, unabated. To the tune of 7 Billion last week. This seems incredible, since 3-4 Billion per month was the norm for quite some time. What gives? Is this market requiring ever larger inputs to sustain? Correct me if I did not hear this correctly, but it is very significant in my "destruction of capital and credit" theory, relating to saturation.

thanks

I was too busy/slack to get it posted.
Painting is such fun...

My boy is well and safe in Oz again.
Only trouble was he had to recondition himself to the OZ way of life after Indonesia.
He did prefer their way of life to ours.

Wonder what I'm missing out on?
Wonder what they're missing out on???