I am having an argument with my cousin who claims there are laws that
"require us to pay taxes". I know someone here has made several
posts dealing with this subject. Any help would be appreciated!

Thanks. O.L.

GM

"Big US and European Banks Facing Losses over Rupiah Devaluation
DERIVATIVES RISKS MAY BE $15bn
George Graham in London
Peter Montagnon in Hong Kong

"International banks are struggling to deal with up to $15bn of deriviatives risks in Indonesia EXCLUDED from last week's $80bn private
debt rescheduling deal.

Although most large international banks have managed to reduce their portfolios of swaps and other OFF-BALANCE-SHEET derivatives with Indonesian counterparties, they are still estimated to hold derivatives worth between $7bn and $15bn whose fate remains uncertain under the terms of debt restructuring. An estimated $1bn of derivatives exposure involves Indonesian banks and IS included in the restructuring deal."

Mighty expensive "glitch".

I guess it will come as a complete shock to many.

Imagine those systems that have been repaired
And tested and retested over and over to be y2k compliant.

And after the date roll over found to be not 'quite' y2k compliant.
Then the geeks will really start to pull their hair out.

Let alone all the systems in place
Where the operators don't care - haven't fixed -
Don't want to know about the problem.

I cannot believe we will glide through this period with grace.
More a bummbling, scrambling, chaotic period.

After all we are mere human beings and not quite so perfect.

GM

The only thing in life that is simple is oneself. A man is hard when he is soft and soft when he is hard, and beyond that everything has been obscured in the mists of governmenteeeez. When people have freedom of choice for currency they'll choose hard currency everytime, when denied that choice, they float or sink as the winds or waters take them, lost on the oceans of despair, tossing helmless from wave to wave, with no port in site and no course plotted. First the government controls your destiny but soon, oh so soon, you become but sport of chance and the victim of despair of the speculators, as they run you up and down the slippery poles of hope and despair. Today, we worry that japan will crash our reserves and that China will blow us over with inflation, and when we come home to empty plates because we've filled some others, look at what a mess we have have simply because we gave up our choice?

Thanks,
a point source of wisdom in the midst of contortions, confusion,
and the need to understand.

you mentioned your brother-inlaw had clients. What line of work is he in, if I may ask?

Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...12:31AM...15104.25...-235.01...-1.53%

My guess is it's good for the rest of the day.

G'Nite.

-EJ

I saw this beautiful girl go by
T'was a windy day
And the wind moulded the blue dress
Round her beautiful body
In a most wonderful
Delightful and feminine way

Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast

And my eyes rested there
Happy moment!
Then drifted on to her hair

Delightful, her dark hair
Silk smooth, a lovely tress
Curled gently down to her shoulders
Which are rounded and shapely and fair
Then flowed round her beautiful features
And fell, soft, on the lovely blue dress

And her lips,
They glowed in the sunlight
I could see they were soft and cool

And her eyes
The mild eyes of a roe deer
I nearly drowned in that pool!

But,
She smoothed the blue dress about her,
The shoulder,
Gave a cold unfriendly goodbye
And she flaunted those hips
As she passed me
With a flash and a gleam in her eye

The language she used
As she passed me,
Tho never a word she said!

So she's gone,
The girl in the blue dress

But I; I still have the beautiful blue dress
Wind blown and bright
In my head

Hospitalised for 2 weeks, I guess, this time last year. They
had to trip a few switches, to install his new-paradigm mantra.
This unfortunately caused synaptic shutdown so they added
strings to his limbs and head. It all looks quite realistic,
but the Parker ( from Thunderbirds ) eyebrows give the game
away. Occasional mechanical failure has led to embarrassing
situations like when he stumbled while at the Whitehouse and
Slick managed to grab one of the strings and hawl him to his
feet. I guess Slick just never let go.

Anyhow on another note,
Does anyone know the current state of US trade deficit with China.

one guy who's beaten the IRS. If you go through all of Karl's site, you'll discover that the question of who the IRS has authority to collect taxes from is complicated.

If you live in Washington DC, Puerto Rico or Guam, or if you are a federal employee, there is absolutely no question that the IRS has authority to collect taxes from you.

If you do what Karl has done, revoke your Social Security No., disavow federal citizenship, claiming state citizenship, and do not work for a corporation, the IRS does not have authority to collect taxes from you. Karl, however, was taking no chances, and other people have obtained that coveted status where the IRS admits it cannot collect taxes from them without going to such extremes.

Working as an employee of a corporation, especially one incorporated federally, probably means that the IRS can tax you, but it's a gray area.

Hope this helps,
- Steve

include the URL, after all that!

http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~karl/govt/

- Steve

Thanks for the starting point. I know there are people who have
gone to the wall and won. I know its kind of a grey area but
I got a $100 bucks on it and if I can take the argument to a draw
that would be great. Thanks for the ammo!!

O.L.

Silverbaron, Earl, EB, etc.: Trying to find more about silver I came across this: http://www.sugaralliance.org/economic_impact.html . There are some interesting things there, incl. a chart of real sugar prices back to 1947. I better not say anymore about sugar; this IS a gold site.

Dave: How true. Especially the part about the only simple thing in life is oneself. Certainly applies to me. In the words of Jeff Foxworthy, all I want is "a beer and to see something naked."

I do believe that merkans are the most manipulated and confused people on the face of the earth. That, combined with our wealth, is why we're so damned dangerous to everyone else on the planet.

Asia COMPLETELY in the RED now, No BLACK to be seen.

Oh my, things may be getting serious indeed.

Gee, I wonder if the DOW will jump up tommorrow on expectations
of great gobs of capital fleeing to safety.

GM

ECB fall-out. I am surprised...... and grateful.

GM

Sharefin ..
I knew a girl like that once ..

Hey did you actually take undergraduate courses in economics? With all your knowledge of waves I figured it was in marine physics or aeronautical engineering : )

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980610/taseko_min_1.html

GM

In what sense did you know her, biblical, carnal, commercial, matrimonial, transcendental ?
Aw, don't tell !

I see her every day like Roy Orbison's "Pretty Woman", except she never starts walking back to me !
Ok !
Some day though just some day........ & I'll never stop looking & hoping & thinking that some day she'll be walking back for me !

Oh yea ! We'll see.



Y.O.S.


TAR BABY,

P. S.

Will it be like a dog catching a Greayhound buss ?


P.S.S.

Sharefin,
You provocative, pornographic so & so, how will I sleep tonight !?

the cheaper copper gets, the more people buy it lowering the supply making it even more cheap and then people buy even more thus driving down the price...

This must be the new paradign. Someone is continuing to use usdollars to buy this commodity. Are they buying gold contracts also???

Goodnight.

*********

FWN: 062600 GMT


London Copper in Narrow Ranges, LME Stock Fall
Supportive



London June 10-FWN--COPPER HAS KEPT TO TIGHT RANGES IN
fairly quiet early business today on the London Metal
Exchange ( LME ) .
Activity was mostly technical in the absence of fresh
market-moving news, traders said. However, today's reported
further fall in LME copper stocks was marginally supportive,
they said.
"It ( the LME fall ) emphasizes the current nearby
tightness, which helped merchants to squeeze up the price
early ( Monday ) ," said one trader.
In latest LME trading, three months copper--which has
so far moved between $1,682.25 and $1,697.50--was at
$1,688.50 per metric ton, up $7.50 on Tuesday's final
level.
Copper's inability on Tuesday to hold on to gains was
"disappointing", Rudolf Wolff analysts noted in today's
market report.
With technical indicators remaining "neutral", they
said, consolidation is seen above $1,680.
The company places upside resistance at $1,720-30,
$1,750 and $1,780, with support at $1,630-50 and
$1,600.
Today's LME data, meanwhile, showed copper inventories
down by 1,800 tons to 258,875 tons, following deliveries
into warehouses of 1,975 and withdrawals of 3,775--the
largest out-going of metal since May 20.
As background news for copper, traders noted reports
that attempts to resolve the truckers' strike at Codelco's
Chuquicamata mine in Chile had failed. Also in the
background is news that Taiwan had raised its forecasts of
this year's imports of copper.
Sources said the copper market is also eyeing
continuing yen weakness, which is fueling fears of a Chinese
currency devaluation.
In New York, high-grade copper futures gave up gains,
as London market was unable to maintain its advance through
a key resistance level,
July futures retreated all the way back to a low for
the session of 75.80 cents, eventually settling 15 points
lower at 76.35 cents.
A source in New York put support for the July futures
around 74.50 to 75 cents, with resistance at 78 cents.
Closing COMEX stocks of copper were down 743 short tons
at 77,873 on Wednesday.


FWN: 062600 GMT


London Copper in Narrow Ranges, LME Stock Fall
Supportive



London June 10-FWN--COPPER HAS KEPT TO TIGHT RANGES IN
fairly quiet early business today on the London Metal
Exchange ( LME ) .
Activity was mostly technical in the absence of fresh
market-moving news, traders said. However, today's reported
further fall in LME copper stocks was marginally supportive,
they said.
"It ( the LME fall ) emphasizes the current nearby
tightness, which helped merchants to squeeze up the price
early ( Monday ) ," said one trader.
In latest LME trading, three months copper--which has
so far moved between $1,682.25 and $1,697.50--was at
$1,688.50 per metric ton, up $7.50 on Tuesday's final
level.
Copper's inability on Tuesday to hold on to gains was
"disappointing", Rudolf Wolff analysts noted in today's
market report.
With technical indicators remaining "neutral", they
said, consolidation is seen above $1,680.
The company places upside resistance at $1,720-30,
$1,750 and $1,780, with support at $1,630-50 and
$1,600.
Today's LME data, meanwhile, showed copper inventories
down by 1,800 tons to 258,875 tons, following deliveries
into warehouses of 1,975 and withdrawals of 3,775--the
largest out-going of metal since May 20.
As background news for copper, traders noted reports
that attempts to resolve the truckers' strike at Codelco's
Chuquicamata mine in Chile had failed. Also in the
background is news that Taiwan had raised its forecasts of
this year's imports of copper.
Sources said the copper market is also eyeing
continuing yen weakness, which is fueling fears of a Chinese
currency devaluation.
In New York, high-grade copper futures gave up gains,
as London market was unable to maintain its advance through
a key resistance level,
July futures retreated all the way back to a low for
the session of 75.80 cents, eventually settling 15 points
lower at 76.35 cents.
A source in New York put support for the July futures
around 74.50 to 75 cents, with resistance at 78 cents.
Closing COMEX stocks of copper were down 743 short tons
at 77,873 on Wednesday.


FWN: 065200 GMT


N.Y. Copper Futures Called to Open 20 to 50 Points
Lower



New York-June 10-FWN--NEARBY COPPER FUTURES ARE CALLED
to open 20 to 50 points lower here today, according to
trade sources.

FWN: 093228 GMT


Midsession N.Y. Copper: Slightly Lower Despite
Inventory Draws



New York-June 10-FWN--HIGH-GRADE COPPER FUTURES ARE
slightly lower so far here this morning, as the market
drifts in quiet trade.
"It's a steady performance, although down a bit,
despite a nice LME ( London Metal Exchange ) and COMEX stock
drawdown," said Fred Demler, minerals economist with
E.D.& F. Man International.
He added there has been "a little bit" of Chinese
buying, and labor problems are continuing at the
Chuquicamata mine in Chile. Negotiations Tuesday did not
result in a new agreement, with no increase in pay offered
to unhappy truck drivers, according to news reports.
These factors have been offset by others such as some
merchant selling and a spillover effect from a sell off in
nickel, Demler continued.
"Overall, it's been kind of a quiet session," he said.
"It's just drifting."
LME authorities reported this morning that warehouse
stocks of copper fell 1,800 metric tons, leaving the total
at 258,875. This comes after a decline of 743 short tons was
reported in COMEX stocks Tuesday following the close of pit
trade, leaving the total there at 77,873 short tons.
July copper may eventually go down and test the 72- to
73-cent area, said Demler. He put resistance around 78
cents.
Three-months copper in London is currently up $1 at
$1,682.


FWN: 134156 GMT


Closing N.Y. Copper: Higher After Asarco Prod.
Cut Reports



New York-June 10-FWN--HIGH-GRADE COPPER FUTURES
finished with a sharp gain after Asarco announced it was
cutting production at a refinery in Texas, sources here
reported.
After an inauspicious start, the July futures began to
pick up momentum around midmorning and eventually settled
with a 170-point gain at 78.05 cents.
"It rallied a little; then a news story came out about
Asarco cutting back their production by around 15%,"
reported one dealer.
Echoed William O'Neill, director of futures research at
Merrill Lynch: "The Asarco report seemed to get things going
in copper. They announced that at their Amarillo refinery,
they were cutting production by 15% due to the lack of
availability of scrape and copper anode.
"Also, the spreads were quite firm in London, which
seemed to help things early in the day. Then the news about
Asarco came out and the market extended its gains."
O'Neill added that some fund buying was also
apparent.
Still another market watcher cited the Asarco
production, but added that he believes some of today's rally
could also be linked to technical factors.
"We came down from the top of the range yesterday, and
found some support there," he said. "We're range-bound."
He put support for the July futures around 75.25 cents.
The market dipped as low as 75.55 today before it began to
rally.
O'Neill put the next resistance at 78.70 cents, with
support around 75 cents.
Should July copper futures continue to rise, a trader
predicted "you'll run into a wall at 80 cents."
London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
that warehouse stocks of copper fell 1,800 metric tons,
leaving the total at 258,875.
One trader put support for three-months copper in
London at $1,650, while another listed $1,665. Resistance
was put at $1,730.
Three-months metal has gained $37.50 to $1,718.50,
after getting as high as $1,723.



New York-June 10-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX COPPER
Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
-------------------------------------------------
Delivery
point previous received withdrawn net chg total
-------------------------------------------------------------


Total 77,873 0 539 -539 77,334



FWN: 140642 GMT


COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today



New York-June 10-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 35,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 14,000


-- SILVER
-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today
TOTAL REGISTERED
0 0 34,642,485
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
0 0 52,766,814
COMBINED TOTAL
0 0 87,409,299



OMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks



New York-June 10-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

TOTAL REGISTERED
890,335 0 3,209 -3,209 0 887,126
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
162,926 0 0 0 0 162,926
COMBINED TOTAL
1,053,261 0 3,209 -3,209 0 1,050,052

Thankyou, but really, I think what is going on is that they opened pandora's box, and everyone is desperately trying to get it closed. If Japan/china or any of big ones falls through the crack will we not soon follow? Of course, it would not do to let a nuke & dukem powers slide either. What it appears to me, to be going on, is we got a bunch of reflex punchers wobbling around the ring, and now, we have a couple more contestants that want in the ring, only nobody knows where or what the ring is anymore.

They all simply chant the mantra gold is bad, because they realize it is the anti-christ to the existing power bases.

The thing is, you can keep people in line, if not happy as long as they have a full belly at nite, and we have been seeing to that for some time, but we have been running out of grain, for years we have been steadily depleteing our reserves, until we now have none. Regan subsidized russian wheat buy during the end of the cold war by $80.00 a ton, which caused Argentenia to default on a bunch of loans our banks had made to them to grow wheat, and closed more than a few of those banks.

You don't bite the tit your sucking on, but when it dries up you bite like hell. so now what?????

GM

"you can never hope to change politicians and their henchmen, you just have to learn to USE them to your benefit."

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

The Blue Dress

With deepest faith she sensed
The mystery and the freedom of the sea.

Heard without listening
The surge and whisper of the surf.

Pensive she stirred the sands,
Silent, felt the wisdom of unquestioned ages.

Smoothed the folds of the Blue Dress
Stirred by the free wind.

Her mind awakening to the ancient songs of freedom,
The placid strength and sweet caress
Of wind, the gentle singing of the quiet sea.

Voiceless her heart sang
All this I am
All this is part of me.

Yes, as I snort up my soon to be black market viagra, grab my 45 and wait for the thought/swat cops to make my day, a hot/cocked rod in either hand, I head for the blue dress.

nite blue dress

Hmmmm....Full moon....Must be a lusty moon....

Squirrel

your Date: Wed Jun 10 1998 18:41 on minting silver double-Eagles, have you any comments on the moving silver/gold ratio if these two precious are to be monetised?

kiwi
are you back home, mate?

Aragorn III
There is a 9999 kiwi coin, minted in 1, 1/2, 1/10 & 1/20 0z denominations, made from NZ gold. The minters pulled the web-site recently. Man, are they despondent. I'll try them again tomorrow..My jeweller friend just fashioned a 1/20 into a ring...looks pretty cool.

Mo
That is a freedom not granted many.

Why is gold up? - it should be down. Bill Murphy from Veneroso says the Swiss Central Bank bought 10 tens of gold just recently. This is the same Cnetral Bank that was talking down gold prior to its purchase. The Swiss Central Bank was also identified as the significant party that had made multiple hits on golden eagle.

The fact that gold is not going down in the face of everything immaginable being thrown at it ( including lower sugar prices ) is I suppose something to hang your hat on. We are however, right at the edge if you believe anything about previous support levels, etc.

The large fund short position vs. the large commercial net long position is the only technical indicator left that is bullish, and that in itself may be very important. Bill Murphy is expecting a big move soon, possibly sparked by coordinated intervention on behalf of the yen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/uk_shares__1.html
``Hong Kong and Japan were looking fairly dangerous again last night,'' said one dealer. ``Especially the Nikkei which is near the crucial 15,000 level.''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FEATURE-Japan, Asia locked in vicious circle of pessimism
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/japan_yen__6.html

Japan and its Asian neighbours appear locked in a vicious circle of pessimism that some fear risks pushing the region off the edge of an economic precipice.

``We are near the precipice. I think we still got some time...but things don't look good,''

``But not only the corporate managers, who should have their ears to the ground ( in Asia ) , but also the authorities are underestimating the problem and seem a bit complacent.''

Not everyone sees Japan as solely responsible for the latest crisis jitters. ``The perception has become that the weak yen is bad for Asia but as far as I can see, the causality is the other way around -- a weak Asia is causing people to buy dollars,'' said Richard Jerram, chief economist at ING Barings. ``People have realised how bad the real economies in Asia are.''

``They've had the largest ever fiscal package, the lowest ever interest rates, and the biggest ever bank bailout package, and still they can't restore confidence,'' Koll said. ``There is one way, and one way only, to fix the problem -- one-third of the banks have to die, and die quickly. They have to close the banks and sell the assets to the highest bidder.''

``The yen must be the anchor... and that means Japan must fix its economy,'' said Susumu Kato, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan. ``But there seems to be nothing they can do.''

``I think we're already in a second downwave now. Hopefully, this will serve as an impetus for more proactive policies in the region including Japan,'' said Larry Duke, vice president at Citibank in Tokyo. ``This sort of gives warning that more needs to be done to stimulate domestic demand.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
China calls on Japan to stop yen's slide
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/china_japa_1.html

``We hope Japan and the relevant countries can face the reality and use courage and wisdom in taking effective measures to stop the further devaluation of the yen to create necessary conditions for the recovery of the economy,''

``Because of the influence of the Japanese economy and the yen in east Asia and the world economy we are paying great attention to the continual fall of the yen's exchange rate,''

``We think the continual falling of the yen is not conducive to the recovery from the financial turmoil in east Asia,''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
China says yuan not to be devalued
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/china_says_1.html
BEIJING, June 11 ( Reuters ) - China's policy of not devaluing its yuan currency remains unchanged, foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on Thursday.

``Our policy towards not devaluing the yuan has not changed,'' Zhu told a news briefing.

Zhu also said Beijing continued to back Hong Kong authorities in their defence of the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. currency.

``The Chinese central government supports the Hong Kong Special Administration Region's government in all its efforts to ensure Hong Kong's stability, including protecting the exchange rate,'' Zhu said.

``In order to ensure Hong Kong's position as a financial centre, we should keep a stable exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar,'' Zhu said. ``We are confident that the Hong Kong economy can shake off its present difficulties.''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Asian woes deal triple blow to Tokyo markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/markets_ja_2.html
Markets in Tokyo were slapped with a triple blow on Thursday as stocks, the yen and Japanese government bonds all tumbled amid growing concern over economic woes in Japan and the rest of Asia.

``The Japanese stock market suffered psychological damage from Asia,''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Greenspan advised on funds for bad loans--Yamasaki
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/greenspan__1.html
``Some say some banks are in trouble,'' he said. ``But there will be no bank failures for a while. By 'a while', I mean in the short term.''
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Seoulbank seeks $1bln in overseas funds
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/seoulbank__1.html

Why is there no intervention by any gubment in the yen? Granted it's a short term fix at best, butdo youse suppose the bad guys WANT to let the $ get stronger ? If so , to what end ?

Saw some talking head yesterday say tha the "market" will take the Yen to 200 to $ to "revive" the Japanese economy. No explaination was given. Wanna take this one on ?

Auracious...we need some economist stories.!!!!!!!!!

I think it was two nights ago, a few steps back up this staircase, that it was suggested that the Federal Reserve knows things are worse in Japan and Asia than the market, and feels no point would be served interveneing at this juncture when so much structural needs to be accomplished in Japan. It's isolationalist, American bastion of financial strenght being played. The slow down in the US economy brought about by reduced exports will have the effect higher interest rates would have had. The dollar as king allows AMerican companies to buy distressed assets in Asia. I think this will eventually come back to haunt the USA. At some point if conditions continue to deteriorate armed conflict may develope..

Notice as I write that the little 60 cent rally gold was exhibiting in the face of all else going south has been reversed. London Gold must have come in a little lower.

I still regard 288 as critical - though I'm not quite sure what I will do should it be breached. I am beginning to think that technicals may be meaningless, that they are just traps, that the precious metals are locked in an epic public struggle, here, which will eventually be resolved dramatically on the upside.

Time to check out Europe to see how bad the selling is there.

South Africans have just turned up by a smidge in a tight range - hope for the XAU watchers. Russia is down a cool 5% on disappoinment from the G7. It's pretty obvious the G7 can not will not and appearently in their opinion should not do anything for the Russians or the Asians. Europe and America circling the wagons???

Pretty quiet on this board this Thursday morning - frankly I take this as a bullish sign.

Eddie

You need only ask ;- )


A man walks into a Silicon Valley pet store looking to buy a monkey. The store owner points toward three identical monkeys in politically correct, animal friendly natural mini-habitats.

"The one on the left costs $500," says the store owner.

"Why so much?" asks the customer.

"Because it can program in C," answers the store owner.

The customer inquires about the next monkey and is told, "That one costs $1500, because it knows Visual C++ and can progamme for Y2K." The startled man then asks about the third monkey.

"That one costs $3000," answers the store owner.

"3000 dollars!!" exclaims the man. "What can that one do?"

To which the owner replies, "To be honest, I've never seen it do a single thing, but it calls itself an economist."



---------


Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock."

The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet.

"973," says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." The man picks one up and begins to walk away.

"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation." Man says sure. "You are an economist for a government think tank," says the shepherd. "Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"

"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my dog and I will tell you."

--------------

Three econometricians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first econometrician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second econometrician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the
right. The third econometrician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "We got it! We got it!"

----------

Salty, I'm ROFLOL,I knew you wouldn't let me down........but on the other hand.......................

Maybe somewhere else....heavy wx moving in....gonna shut down 'til later.........Good day from the stormy Midwest...bbl

Eddie:

from the preface to Paul Krugman's book, "Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in the Age of Diminished Expectations" ( 1994, page xi ) :


An Indian-born economist once explained his personal theory of reincarnation to his graduate economics class.

"If you are a good economist, a virtuous economist," he said, "you are reborn as a physicist. But if you are an evil, wicked economist, you are reborn as a sociologist."


=========



Economist poem

If you do some acrobatics
with a little mathematics
it will take you far along.
If your idea's not defensible
don't make it comprehensible
or folks will find you out,
and your work will draw attention
if you only fail to mention
what the whole thing is about.

Your must talk of GNP
and of elasticity
of rates of substitution
and undeterminate solution
and oligonopopsony.


Kenneth E. BOULDING

On Wed, 10 Jun 1998 07:33:08, RegSmith@my-dejanews.com>RegSmith@my-dejanews.com wrote:

Have you noticed that most of the prominent Y2K personalities who are hell-bent on insisting that Y2K problems will cause infrastructure problems have a self-serving agenda of their own?

Coincidence?
No, it's not a coincidence but you don't know the whole story.

Examples:
1 ) Ed Yourdon

Ed believes that Y2K will turn NYC into the streets of Beirut and you canfind out why by shelling out a measley ~$20 for his book on Y2K. Is this the same Ed Yourdon who sensationalized previously when he wrote the book entitled, "The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer"? Does Ed have Chronic Doomsday Syndrome or is there a more simple explanation to be found
perhaps by assuming this is merely a marketing tactic designed to maximize profit?

Ed has bought most of New Mexico and portions of West Texas in a complex land development deal. He's hyping the problem to drive up realestate values. Ed also owns two water delivery companies, has options on a wind power manufacturer and is negotiating with Sandia National
Labs, to convert their facility into Yourdon-Land, a combinationamusement park, food manufacturer, and gambling casino. At Yourdon-land, there will be multi-cultural amusements, cactus candy, a machine gun live fire range. Ed will be moving the bodies and spacecraft from Area51 to Yourdon-land's reconstruction of Roswell, where scantily clad, nubile women in 'space wear' ( visit the gift shop, the softer side of Ed. ) will present their interpretation of the crash to a full light show and Bose audio. Surrounding Yourdon-land will be a golf courses, retirement-survival homes, condominiums, etc.

2 ) Gary North

Mr. North certainly has a bizarre history of extremist behavior. Cancer shams?

Ed's main investor in Yourdon-land is Gary North-Co, a front company of the Rockefeller's venture capital firm. GNC has committed 20 billion dollars to the Yourdon-land project.

3 ) Cory Hamasaki

Is it obvious Mr. Hamasaki has a grudge against management types who treat programmers as unskilled labourers? It is a valid complaint but so must be Mr. Hamasaki's tendency for juvenile rants and Milne-like predictions. Could

..so must be... what? ...so must be...valid? ...so must be...grudge? ..so must be...juvenile? I don't understand.

there be a profit motive to exaggerate the Y2K problem in order to panic corporations into paying obscene rates?

Juvenile rants? DD isn't going on vacation, he's holding a private seminar for me on how to do Infantile rants... floor rolling, feet kicking, cyber temper tantrums. poooo-pee, poop, poopie.

milne-like ( I still sub-vocalize Mill-knee, kilm, miln, mmmmiln, come on, hiln, can't do it. got a brain lock-up here. ) Paul will be surprised to learn that you believe that I'm predicting the same thing
that he is. I need to work on the precision of my written word.

Reg, I see the future as a spectrum of possibilities. One of which is detailed in Rawles' end of the world novel... which I highly recommend, not for the technology but for the understanding of that specific mindset. It's also an entertaining story with sympathetic characters. The milne-rawles-ney end of the world scenario has a low probability, bout on the order of you, an extended family member, or close acquaintance dying in the next 6 months. Oh-oh, it's not that low, is it?

There are some very odd possible futures with a non-zero, higher than 1% probability out there.
1 ) Dramatic shifts in the power balance betweenstates and the feds, 2 ) cyberbusiness conventional business, 3 ) a new wave of religeous thought...

Y2K is a discontinuity in technology. The really odd thing about it is, this is one time that the religeous who believe in millennium-esque apocalytic disasters are correct. Proveably, traceable from zeros and ones using formal methods to a break down in the computing infrastructure, absolutely correct.

I've surveyed all the experts I personally know. These are people with more than 20 years on large complex systems ( programmers, system architects, systems programmers, real experts not narrow specialists in COBOL reports only ) , to qualify for this group, they also need an understanding of the theoretical mathematical underpinnings of Computer Science, set theory, combinatorics, state engines, graph theory, predicate calculus.

The 90% concensus of this group is, this is a hard problem. These are careful thinkers with decades of experience on large systems and academics. Note, when computer scientists say that this is a 'hard' problem, they don't mean that you'll break a sweat for a few minutes to
solve it. They mean that there is no formal proof that the problem cannot be solved but you might spend the rest of your life looking for a computing algorithm that solves the problem in less than a thousand years.

Oops, we have less than 569 days to find a solution and implement it.

Similarly, the phrase, "this is not a technical problem, it is a management problem" is misunderstood. This doesn't mean that the solution is to write mission statements and hold long boring meetings, which is what some people are reporting as progress.

The management problem is to select the 10-20% of the systems without which, people or the organization dies, allocate 150% of the resources required to fix those systems, and work the problem, focus on getting the job done, concentrate on the goal to the exclusion of all else. Do
what it takes to fix and test the systems.

This is clearly not what is happening. Instead, we have press releases that claim that the problem was solved because, "we have a schedule" or "we have a plan". Give me a break.
---- I dislike this phrase but it seems appropriate.

We also have a new infestation of denial-heads in c.s.y2k, where's my flit-gun? Fssssst, -siemens-, Fssssst, -CoreBank-. wow, look at them flop around. That one's curling up into a ball.


4 ) Paul Milne

Mr. Milne enjoys the Y2K doomsday because it seems he believes it will be the driver of political and social change he so desperately desires. Based on the nature of his posts I suspect he escaped modern society not because of Y2K but because he finds himself incompatable with todays world.

paul has said that 1 ) society is lousy, 2 ) it's hosed, 3 ) I've bookedfor the boonies. Tell me something new.

5 ) Rick Cowles

Enjoys his celebrity status and the lecture circuit. Book for sale. See Ed Yourdon.

Listen Reg, a techno-dweeb can drag down $100-$500/hour without Y2K. Web-heads, router mechanics, database tweakers all bill out for big bucks. A couple tens of grands book royalties is terrific but Youdon and Cowles were corporate consultants before Y2K.
On Wed, 10 Jun 1998 07:33:08, RegSmith@my-dejanews.com wrote:

Have you noticed that most of the prominent Y2K personalities who are hell-bent on insisting that Y2K problems will cause infrastructure problems have a self-serving agenda of their own?

Coincidence?
No, it's not a coincidence but you don't know the whole story.

Examples:
1 ) Ed Yourdon

Ed believes that Y2K will turn NYC into the streets of Beirut and you canfind out why by shelling out a measley ~$20 for his book on Y2K. Is this the same Ed Yourdon who sensationalized previously when he wrote the book entitled, "The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer"? Does Ed have Chronic Doomsday Syndrome or is there a more simple explanation to be found
perhaps by assuming this is merely a marketing tactic designed to maximize profit?

Ed has bought most of New Mexico and portions of West Texas in a complex land development deal. He's hyping the problem to drive up realestate values. Ed also owns two water delivery companies, has options on a wind power manufacturer and is negotiating with Sandia National
Labs, to convert their facility into Yourdon-Land, a combinationamusement park, food manufacturer, and gambling casino. At Yourdon-land, there will be multi-cultural amusements, cactus candy, a machine gun live fire range. Ed will be moving the bodies and spacecraft from Area51 to Yourdon-land's reconstruction of Roswell, where scantily clad, nubile women in 'space wear' ( visit the gift shop, the softer side of Ed. ) will present their interpretation of the crash to a full light show and Bose audio. Surrounding Yourdon-land will be a golf courses, retirement-survival homes, condominiums, etc.

2 ) Gary North

Mr. North certainly has a bizarre history of extremist behavior. Cancer shams?

Ed's main investor in Yourdon-land is Gary North-Co, a front company of the Rockefeller's venture capital firm. GNC has committed 20 billion dollars to the Yourdon-land project.

3 ) Cory Hamasaki

Is it obvious Mr. Hamasaki has a grudge against management types who treat programmers as unskilled labourers? It is a valid complaint but so must be Mr. Hamasaki's tendency for juvenile rants and Milne-like predictions. Could

..so must be... what? ...so must be...valid? ...so must be...grudge? ..so must be...juvenile? I don't understand.

there be a profit motive to exaggerate the Y2K problem in order to panic corporations into paying obscene rates?

Juvenile rants? DD isn't going on vacation, he's holding a private seminar for me on how to do Infantile rants... floor rolling, feet kicking, cyber temper tantrums. poooo-pee, poop, poopie.

milne-like ( I still sub-vocalize Mill-knee, kilm, miln, mmmmiln, come on, hiln, can't do it. got a brain lock-up here. ) Paul will be surprised to learn that you believe that I'm predicting the same thing
that he is. I need to work on the precision of my written word.

Reg, I see the future as a spectrum of possibilities. One of which is detailed in Rawles' end of the world novel... which I highly recommend, not for the technology but for the understanding of that specific mindset. It's also an entertaining story with sympathetic characters. The milne-rawles-ney end of the world scenario has a low probability, bout on the order of you, an extended family member, or close acquaintance dying in the next 6 months. Oh-oh, it's not that low, is it?

There are some very odd possible futures with a non-zero, higher than 1% probability out there.
1 ) Dramatic shifts in the power balance betweenstates and the feds, 2 ) cyberbusiness conventional business, 3 ) a new wave of religeous thought...

Y2K is a discontinuity in technology. The really odd thing about it is, this is one time that the religeous who believe in millennium-esque apocalytic disasters are correct. Proveably, traceable from zeros and ones using formal methods to a break down in the computing infrastructure, absolutely correct.

I've surveyed all the experts I personally know. These are people with more than 20 years on large complex systems ( programmers, system architects, systems programmers, real experts not narrow specialists in COBOL reports only ) , to qualify for this group, they also need an understanding of the theoretical mathematical underpinnings of Computer Science, set theory, combinatorics, state engines, graph theory, predicate calculus.

The 90% concensus of this group is, this is a hard problem. These are careful thinkers with decades of experience on large systems and academics. Note, when computer scientists say that this is a 'hard' problem, they don't mean that you'll break a sweat for a few minutes to
solve it. They mean that there is no formal proof that the problem cannot be solved but you might spend the rest of your life looking for a computing algorithm that solves the problem in less than a thousand years.

Oops, we have less than 569 days to find a solution and implement it.

Similarly, the phrase, "this is not a technical problem, it is a management problem" is misunderstood. This doesn't mean that the solution is to write mission statements and hold long boring meetings, which is what some people are reporting as progress.

The management problem is to select the 10-20% of the systems without which, people or the organization dies, allocate 150% of the resources required to fix those systems, and work the problem, focus on getting the job done, concentrate on the goal to the exclusion of all else. Do
what it takes to fix and test the systems.

This is clearly not what is happening. Instead, we have press releases that claim that the problem was solved because, "we have a schedule" or "we have a plan". Give me a break.
---- I dislike this phrase but it seems appropriate.

We also have a new infestation of denial-heads in c.s.y2k, where's my flit-gun? Fssssst, -siemens-, Fssssst, -CoreBank-. wow, look at them flop around. That one's curling up into a ball.


4 ) Paul Milne

Mr. Milne enjoys the Y2K doomsday because it seems he believes it will be the driver of political and social change he so desperately desires. Based on the nature of his posts I suspect he escaped modern society not because of Y2K but because he finds himself incompatable with todays world.

paul has said that 1 ) society is lousy, 2 ) it's hosed, 3 ) I've bookedfor the boonies. Tell me something new.

5 ) Rick Cowles

Enjoys his celebrity status and the lecture circuit. Book for sale. See Ed Yourdon.

Listen Reg, a techno-dweeb can drag down $100-$500/hour without Y2K. Web-heads, router mechanics, database tweakers all bill out for big bucks. A couple tens of grands book royalties is terrific but Youdon and Cowles were corporate consultants before Y2K.

Industry: Transportation- A "computer glitch" caused flights to be delayed early Friday morning at all of the major New York City airports, local news station NY1 reported. The malfunction, which interrupted all incoming flights and some departing flights at Laguardia, Newark, and JFK airports for almost two hours occurred when programmers at the Terminal Radar Approach Control ( TRACOM ) loaded a new software program into the central computer. Flights resumed when the old software was reinstalled.

Let me ask all the wise guys out there...
Don't you think that before they installed the new software that they were confident that it would work? Don't you think they spent a lot of time testing it beforehand? And yet it failed.

Ahhh. Now I get it. They are the only screw ups in the IT industry. And millions and millions of companies will get all their Y2K work done, and done right, the first time. Oh, yeah, remember that after Jan 1 2000 you won't just be able to slip in the 'old' software.

Pollyannas still have absolutely no clue as to the scope of the problems.

I will be willing to bet that not 5% of all companies in the world will do appropriate parallel testing. Not 5%. Quick! Slip in the old software! Ooops.
Too late.

ROTFLMAO

Paul Milne

Well, I'm not laughing with you... this is unfortunately a very insightful comment on the IT and software engineering industry.

It seems to me that we're seeing more evidence of odd instabilities in mission critical software. This may be the gradual rise in failures prior to a chaoticbreakdown at Y2K. There are several *possible* reasons for this:

1 ) the maintenance people are churning the software base trying to install Y2K fixes and are breaking something else

2 ) some shops are moving to a degraded state because:
a ) their talent has bailed for bucks
b ) clueless nubies ( and offshorers ) are slinging code like hash
c ) they have diverted their talent to a burn-our-ships 'replacement by Y2K' or die project.

3 ) Y2K failures are starting, here and there, like crabgrass in a suburban lawn

4 ) paralysis has set in, the denizens of cube city are demoralized by this mess and are not able to give it their best.

5 ) some shops have gone 'lights-out', someone mentioned that over the weekend.

..and yes, this might just be a preception problem but I don't think so. If I look back at the historic record, the Y2K story has unfolded even worse that I imagined it would.

Sure, we have a couple, maybe, three denial-heads ( head butts ) lurching around the newsgroup... sometimes they almost seem to make sense... but then a mass of facts streams in and the situation proves to be even worse than I thought.

oligonopopsony - WHAT?

for this beautiful poem.
Alberich

Sharefin

eggsackly! Just like McAffee ( sp? ) talks up the computer virus ( quite uncommon ) these fellas talk up Y2K. We gotta separate the snake-oil salesmen from the prophets and profits, yes?

Old Soldier/other diabetics,
Your survival may depend upon your knowledge of encouraging sheep's pancreases to produce insulin. It is entirely possible to produce insulin in a low tech economy. Down on the farm. Don't recall all the details myself..


Allen
I while ago Date: Fri May 29 1998 12:53 you posted

"The Dutch manfacturer of 70% of the world's insulin supply will be taking its production lines out of service on 12/31/1999. "

I thought that a Danish Company, Novo Nordisk, was the largest supplier of insulin, with just over 50% of the market, Eli Lily around 40%. Please tell me who is this mysterious Dutch company.

I have not heard that Novo Nordisk has any production problems.


----


Diabetes trivia

Who was the third ( and some say, most influential ) member of the team that isolated insulin ( etymology: insula, from the apparent dark islands on sheep's pancreatic cells ) and the only one NOT to get a Nobel prize?

tolerant1
oligonopopsony - WHAT?


That will require a full and detailed report at my usual consultancy rates to explain. We will probably require a large marketing budget, TV Radio, I think we need a travelling road-show......Definately have to travel to Brussels, New York ( island that is long ) Vienna, London and Disneyland for "on-the-ground" market intelligence. The really good news is...I need a travelling companion!!!!!


Tight Lines

I especially liked the "insidious slavery debt trap" as describing US Imperialism, where US Dollar loans at 10 for 11 keep these 3rd world countries in a constant state of servitude.

There is a lot of complacency and arrogance among the American Dippies and their new found success in mutual funds. However the vast majority here are goldbugs who don't have faith in the current financial system, fear social unrest, and therefore don't have that arrogance nor complacency.

It is hard to blame them when you look at what Americans are offered to eat: steroids, antiobiotics, Genetically Altered pesticide-covered Fruit & Veg, poor drinking water, genetically modified dairy products, Monosodium Glutemate.

Monosodium Glutemate is a "Flavor Enhancer" commonly found in fast food. I read that mice/rats took such a liking to the MSG in the French Fries on the floor of a certain fast food Restaurant that they gnawed a whole through the refrigerator just to get more. There must be something to the term "Junk Food Junkie" after all.

Date: Wed Jun 10 1998 22:02

Aragorn III ( Euro and gold...really quite logical when you think about it )

Thanks for your fine analysis in the above post from last night - the article I posted from SBC/World Gold Council the other night about which CBs had the gold, which contributed gold to the EURO and in what quantities, and which was left with the gold, had me thinking along the same lines.

These CBs may have figured a way to have their cake and eat it at the same time....Providing a tiny amount of gold in creation of a moderately strong ( but not TOO strong ) currency block, which demands competition with the USD if only by its existence. At the same time they get to divest themselves of a large chunk of their USD reserves, AND they get to keep almost all of their gold!!! A lovely plan, if it works, eh?

prepared on an everyday basis...anyway, handing out gold, silver and platinum and leaflets on the Island that is Long...doing the BEST I can to help people THRIVE...yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...

Does the government have agents who step in and buy with their Gov. slush fund? When to buy a Japanese mutual fund? Buy gold?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/asia_yen_a_1.html

Actual Newspaper Headlines, Collected by Journalists

1. Something Went Wrong In Jet Crash, Expert Says
2. Police Begin Campaign To Run Down Jaywalkers
3. Safety Experts Say School Bus Passengers Should Be Belted
4. Survivor Of Siamese Twins Joins Parents
5. Farmer Bill Dies In House
6. Iraqi Head Seeks Arms
7. British Left Waffles On Falkland Islands
8. Lung Cancer In Women Mushrooms
9. Eye Drops Off Shelf
10. Reagan Wins On Budget, But More Lies Ahead
11. Squad Helps Dog Bite Victim
12. Shot Off Woman's Leg Helps Nicklaus to 66
13. Enraged Cow Injures Farmer with Ax
14. Plane Too Close To Ground, Crash Probe Told
15. Miners Refuse to Work After Death
16. Juvenile Court To Try Shooting Defendant
17. Stolen Painting Found By Tree
18. Two Soviet Ships Collide, One Dies
19. Two Sisters Reunited After 18 Years In Checkout Counter
20. Killer Sentenced To Die For Second Time In 10 Years
21. War Dims Hope For Peace
22. If Strike Isn't Settled Quickly, It May Last a While
23. Cold Wave Linked To Temperatures
24. Enfields Couple Slain; Police Suspect Homicide
25. Red Tape Holds Up New Bridge
26. Deer Kill 17,000
27. Typhoon Rips Through Cemetery; Hundreds Dead
28. Man Struck By Lightning Faces Battery Charge
29. New Study Of Obesity Looks For Larger Test Group
30. Astronaut Takes Blame For Gas In Spacecraft
31. Chef Throws His Heart Into Helping Needy
32. Arson Suspect Is Held In Massachusetts Fire
33. Ban On Soliciting Dead in Trotwood
34. Lansing Residents Can Drop Off Trees
35. Local High School Dropouts Cut In Half
36. New Vaccine May Contain Rabies
37. Man Minus Ear Waives Hearing
38. Deaf College Opens Doors To Hearing
39. Air Head Fired
40. Steals Clock, Faces Time
41. Old School Pillars are Replaced By Alumni
42. Bank Drive-In Window Blocked By Board
43. Hospitals are Sued By 7 Foot Doctors
44. Some Pieces Of Rock Hudson Sold At Auction

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/japan_yen__6.html

call me intensely para~noid

but haven't rather a lot of us been 'mysteriously' locked out of kitco for a couple of days, one at at time. Only to find we have been mysteriously let back in to post?

pardon my antipodean, ahhemm , saltiness but:
Is there someone/something perhaps sniffing around the kitco posters? Perhaps more that sniffing, actually screwing around with the hard ( bless viagra ) drive? Aint noone but skwirl more paranoid than me, I bet. Who all has been messed around with recently?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/interview__4.html

Did you get my reply yesterday on the supplier of these coins? I discovered last evening that the source has a web site:

http://www.coastcoin.com

Greetinz


To the Top O' The World.


away to


weather the whether

Gold and silver, its growing...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHaaaaaaaaaa!!!

http://nt.excite.com/news/u/980611/05/news-finance

They are after us. Lets face it Kitcoits know heaps. Aurator
you are blessed with a mind that sees true color when all about you
see shadows. Others are brainiac geniuses.
I,d say they want to shut us parrots up. Or they are isolating
us to detect us.
I'm paranoid, no I aint, yes I am, no I aint
yes I am, no I aint, yesnoyesnoyesno.

"And yet, if we compare the proportion between gold and silver, as it stood in the time of Pliny, and as it was fixed in the reign of Constantine, we shall discover within that period a very considerable increase."

"The proportion, which was 1 to 10, and 121/2, rose to 142/3, the legal regulation of Constantine."

The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Gibbon, p.43

first...the good news, their herd will be thinner after the battle...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/saudi_mini_2.html

But by the time they getcha, your neighbors will have all the gold and silver in their window boxes! Let me know if your neighbor decides to move......I may be interested...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm ( ;^ ) )

Massive wave of derivative losses starting?
Nope, still no news. Could be a baseless rumour, unless someone knows
better ( and hopefully can post a news URL? ) Probably about as believable
as the 8.4 earthquake and the Heaven's Gate spaceship.

I am blessed with many brothers-in-law....the one you inquire of is E.Peter Hoffman, he is a private investor. For several years, when he was younger, he was Dean Witter's #1 producer nationwide. Since then, he has made a good living by traveling the world and identifying investment opportunities, mostly public companies. He has a few discrete clients that rely on his judgement and invest in his investment choices. Next week he will be in Calgary meeting with ceo's of energy companies. He is very intelligent, a graduate of the Thunderbird School and the most motivated man I have ever met.

Mole

Great catch. The silver gold ratio comes up for discussion occaisionally here ( male lust pills are, ahhem, over-shadowing, many other topics ) but to continue this. Trading the ratio has been a disappointment, but, it is a very interesting watch on the markets. Like Donald's Dow/Au ratio.

To assit the factual basis of your enquiries, here is a table I found a few years ago, it may need updating?:

Metal Parts per million by weight
Silicon 277,200.00
Magnesium 20,900.00
Zinc 132.00
Nickel 80.00
Copper 70.00
Silver .10
Palladium .01
Gold .005
Platinum .005
Rhodium .001
Iridium .001



--------


One must really ask oneself, at the current ratio of 55-60, which metal is likely to move most?


ps there is a lot of info around here on the AU/Ag ratio. ANOTHER possible link, for Bart's Weekly page...a FAQ file

of Zurich...and then led them through the tunnels...and you are ALWAYS welcome on the Island that is Long...gold and silver really do help the plants grow...hee...hee...

from another brother-in-law, but I'm going to hang with him racing cars ( his hobby ) Saturday next...and I'll swab him down then, hopefully. Assuming there is something of import he will offer!

GM

A couple of weeks ago the FASB ( Financial Accounting Standards Board ) approved the rule that will force derivatives onto the balance sheet. The rule don't kick in until sometime in 1999. The banks were, of course, heavily against it -- Greenspan, too. I'm personally looking forward to the high drama that's to come when corporations and government agencies try to explain their Las Vegas applications of funds entrusted to them, especially in cases where the derivatives are so complex that only a friggin' rocket scientist can understand them.
-EJ

I must go now and present six ( only ) new silvered strings to an ol' Gibson friend of mine...she will be very pleased......happiness ;^ ) ~ and as always, GO GOLDBUGS!!!!!!

Is swabbing still legal in Oklahoma? and it is never too early..never... hoisting a huge mug of Cuervo in your HONOR...Gulp to ya...

I've been showing gold and silver coins around to my closest friends for about six months now, allowing them to see with their own eyes the difference between a promise of money and actual money. With the recent flattening of the DOW and with it the death of expectations of a continued run to 10,000 and beyond, the reality of dropping corp. earnings in the US, and the devastating crisis and panic now crushing Asia, my reputation among them has gone from crackpot goldbug to reasoned investor. They are starting -- just starting -- to buy gold.

They think I have some kind of special long-range financial radar. But I have a secret weapon:

Gianni Dioro
sharefin
tolerant1
mozel
Roebear
2BR02B
gagnrad
midas
downunder
aurator
Donald
Silverbarron
WetGold
BullyBeef
RETIRED SOLDIER
ALBERICH
auric
Gollum

and so many more to whom I am indebted for your generous sharing of your knowledge and views. Thanks!

-EJ

For all of us...it is a privilege...a GIANT GULP from the Island that is Long...gulp...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

DROOY plans to acquire Crown Gold Recoveries - more at http://www.drd.co.za/

This is a repost in case anyone missed it.

STRESS MANAGEMENT

Picture yourself near a stream.

Birds are softly chirping in the crisp, cool mountain air.

Nothing can bother you here.

No one knows this secret place.

You are in total seclusion from that place called "the world."

The soothing sound of a gentle waterfall fills the air with a cascade of serenity.

The water is clear.

You can easily make out the face of the person whose head you're holding under the water

There now......feeling better?

Not all of AMERICA is indifferent...our lanterns are lit...the door is open...the fire recently stoked...pull up a chair...a great meal is almost ready...if you still have a chill we have plenty of blankets...

Not all of AMERICA is indifferent...NO...NOT AT ALL...

You have me confused with Retired Soldier. He has a mild form of diabetes. I have a mild form of dementia related to goldbugism. We both served proudly but we are not the same or even perfectly interchangeable.

Wish to tell all those that read my stuff, that I just looked at my
work, and it looks like we've finished doing the things here at the
bottom that needed doing, like filling gaps etc. and we're headed up,
from here. It may be bumpy at time, so stay in your seats with seat
belts fastened for your own safety, but don't worry- it's lookin GOOD!
For the english speakers among us, It's looking quite well!SWELL.

There are many to take advantage of the position we all find ourselves in.
I do not have the ability for this and thus despise those who seek to scam from the weaknesses of others.
Many would fit in well here - as per Wetgold's comments.

I would tend to try to fit all I have read into a mainstream position between the two.
But I cannot do this.
I read between the lines to much and imagine empirically that the chaos will be far worse.
To me these doomsdayers posts are signs of radicals shouting out to the many.
But one only needs to read the many warning signals coming out
To realize that there is far more to this than meets the eye.
The shear size and complexity of the issue demands comprehension
We are basically looking at the whole complexity of our society
Being pulled to pieces and having to be reassembled

I can't possibly believe that this process will be painless.
Because of the way in which our world runs these days - the 'just in time' principle.
I see many areas fraught with danger of systemic breakdown.
To much - everywhere - is interrelated / correlated.

My thoughts are to be out of debt with cash handy and out of the system.
Planning to get a bus and travel or just sit on a farm till out of harms way.
Much of what I will read over the next year will give fair indications
As to whether or not it will be bad, severe or catastrophic

I'm hoping for bad only and in that case my changes in life will have little effect overall.
( I must remind you that for the last 5 years we have been planning to opt out somewhat. )
We intend to shift down south to a quieter area and y2k has just speed up the process.

But I have a feeling that life will change much for the worse.

And on top of all this I see the potential for a financial crash - derivatives etc..???
This alone could/would be enough to change many of our comparitives lifestyles.

Seems to me a good time to pull ones head in and take a few precautions.

Farfel:

Please stop prefacing your messages with the phrase: "This will definitely be my last post", or something to that effect. Just admit it. YOU ARE HOOKED!!

Just admit that you can't stop posting and that you are BACK, and that leaving was a mistake. I for one enjoy all of your posts. If you admit your mistake, you'll be able to post more often, and it will be ASB.

I look forward to more posts!!

I agree, it is indeed a pleasure to be in company of such collective brainpower....All of us learn more than we contribute ( except for a select unnamed few, who already know everything ) .

How long will it take for them to realise they should have bought GOLD ????????

The US$ is on viagra.

I wonder?
How long does the effects last?

I guess they coud start to sell the Dollars now and buy gold, but they have an awful lot of Dollars swishing around, and on a trade weighted basis, the Dollar is still strong, so why sell now. It's like selling stocks in a bull market...Kind of hard to do. But they might be. Also, there are a lot more Dollars around than gold..and there are no Euros. So the opportunities are limited. IMHO massive selling of Dollars at this juncture would be premature. But nibbling on the treasure trove right now is quite possible. That might explain the negative announcements fromt the Swiss each time gold raises its pretty head.

There is a mountain of debt everywhere, everyone owes everyone else and confidence is low. Russia is almost broke thanks to experiments into free market system, Asian economies are down hill racers for some time now, I wonder what would stabilize the asian system, Middle East Oil producers are up the creek with fiscal defecits and market glut, Australian and Canadian dollars are at all time lows, CB's action to prop up currencies are not working, strangely no one is moving into gold as expected, thus Gold and other PM's seem to be going nowhere.

Kudos to Pat Robertson for his views on gay agenda and power to southern Baptists to call spade a spade.

Canadian Army is considering a request from a soldier for a sex change operation to be paid for by the military ( i.e. Tax Payer ) . Men now need viagra to get it up inspite of barely dressed women all around, Something is going seriously wrong here..

Aurator
It is an enlightening post.
There's gold on both sides of the fence.

Alberich
My Dad's pleasure.
He has 6 poems on the 'blue dress' theme.
All seen through a different vein.

Wetgold
You have to appreciate the view in both directions.

Trinovent
There was an article on the 10 billion loss posted here a few days ago.
It was in yen not dollars.
Plenty more to surface soon I think.

EJ
You forgot to mention F*

Farfel
Welcome back

crock that no one can decipher.

GM

The Gold Market  ECB Reserves: A 10% to 15% Gold Share

Summary
 The consensus among European central bank governors for a 10% to 15% share of gold in ECB reserves reflects a preference for more liquid dollars and a compromise between the negative attitudes of central banking technocrats towards gold and the more positive attitudes of some European politicians whose constituencies value some "gold backing" for the Euro.
 This decision is largely symbolic. Political considerations will lead to a cessation of European official gold sales for several years once the Euro is issued in 1999.
 This symbolic move will undermine gold market sentiment, leading to more producer hedging and speculator short selling than otherwise.
 Recent EMU related official gold sales prior to EMU will abate. The big liquidations of gold in Asia are over. With the abatement of the unusual supplies from above ground stocks that caused the 1997-1998 gold bear market, the gold price will recover to its 1994-1996 level despite a continued flow of central bank sales and loans of 1000 tonnes per year. A somewhat adverse decision on ECB gold reserves will slow this price recovery by encouraging producer hedging and dissuading speculative buying.
Recent Flows
The gold market rebounded off last Tuesday's lows, possibly because of rumored producer buybacks. The CFTC report on the Comex position of traders showed a large 53,000 net fund short position as of that date. The Comex open interest continued to build despite a small rally through the following Monday. We understand that, based on expectations of global deflation, funds continued to pour in on the short side in almost all commodities. It is rumored that Tuesday's $5.00 rally was due in part to one large fund covering its shorts because the CFTC report showed that it had too much company on the short side.
Rumors of Russian sales also encouraged fund short selling. Russia had $19 billion in reserves last fall. These reserves fell to just below $11 billion early this year, with $4.5 billion in gold. Reserves fell another $1 billion in early May but, in response to the large rise in ruble interest rates, these reserves have recently recovered most of that decline. There is no indication that Russian reserve gold has been sold.
ECB Gold Reserves
FRANKFURT, June 9 - ( Bloomberg ) "We haven't made a precise decision yet, the decision has to be made ( Duisenberg ) said. There is a consensus among central bank governors it will be around 10 to 15 percent.
The gold market sold off Tuesday on a statement by Wim Duisenberg that the ECB would hold only 10%-15% of its reserves in gold. Market expectations were in the 15% to 25% range.

Strangely, the ECB may not hold yen, the only other currency option beside dollars and gold.

FRANKFURT, June 9 ( Reuters ) European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said on Tuesday that it remained an open question whether Japanese yen would be a part of the ECB foreign exchange reserves.

Governor Fazio of the Bank of Italy made a statement several months ago that gold might constitute 30% of ECB reserves. Governor Trichet of the Bank of France has made numerous pro gold statements. Both central banks hold large gold reserves. A higher gold reserve ratio in the ECB might improve gold market sentiment, thereby raising the market value of the substantial gold reserves of these central banks. Yet, the ratio will most likely be 10% to 15%. Why have the European central banks opted for a low gold reserve ratio in the ECB?
There are two likely reasons. First, the ECB will apparently hold mostly dollars. Dollars are the most liquid of foreign exchange assets. The $55 billion ECB will be the apex institution for the $330 billion System of European Central Banks and will be the first line of defense in any attack on the new Euro. It is likely that such liquidity considerations weighed heavily in the emerging consensus on ECB reserve composition.
Second, EMU is a project that has been pushed forward by European politicians and European Union technocrats against the preferences of the political constituencies in most of Europe. The EU technocrats involved tend to regard gold as a relic from another era they are stuck with because they own too much of it to sell and because there is still an irrational attachment to it on the part of the public in some European countries. Wim Duisenberg, whose Dutch central bank has been a conspicuous seller of gold, is probably in this camp. Ottmar Issing, who will be in charge of ECB monetary policy, reportedly believes gold has no proper role in a modern monetary system. Yet, after last year's public response to Finance Minister Weigel's move to revalue the Bundesbank's gold reserves, he understands that public and political sentiment calls for some gold in the ECB. A 10% to 15% gold reserve ratio may be a compromise between today's central bank technicians, who see no need for gold as a central bank reserve a
A decision to hold 10% to 15% of ECB reserves in gold is largely a symbolic issue. The French and Germans will ultimately determine the disposition of the large reserve assets that will be held at the level of the individual country central banks. We continue to believe that, once the new Euro is issued, these central banks will opt for no gold sales in order to maximize support from their skeptical populations for the new Euro. It is noteworthy that Terry Smeeton, while still at the Bank of England, predicted a 10% to 15% share of gold in the reserves of the new ECB but expected that, for these political reasons, there would be no further European gold sales once the Euro is issued at the end of 1998.

LONDON, March 19 - ( Reuters ) But once the Euro gets underway, gold in reserves is unlikely to be sold for some time, Smeeton said. "I would have thought that initially after monetary union there will be a tendency to see how it works out before making any major changes in reserve composition. I regard monetary union as a hazardous enterprise and that it would be improbable that we are going to see major disinvestment when it starts, until we are absolutely sure that it's for keeps," he said.

Though this may be the case, a 10% to 15% share of gold in ECB reserves is somewhat symbolic of the negative attitude of today's central bankers toward gold. Such symbolism will affect gold market sentiment. Many of the major gold producers were led by some European central bankers to believe that the new ECB would take a more pro gold position. Some of these producers have been covering hedges. On balance, such symbolism will lead the producer sector to hedge more, particularly on rallies. Such symbolism will also make funds more comfortable on the short side of the gold market and less willing to go long.
A rumor has been circulating that the European central bank governors are allowing those European central banks that want to hold less gold to reduce their gold reserves through the end of the year. To announce major future gold sales by European central banks would probably depress the gold price and prove to be counter productive. It is our belief that one or more European central banks have been selling gold to reduce their official gold holdings. The large liquidations of gold in Asia in recent quarters have probably made it difficult for these central banks to meet their objectives by May, requiring gold sales beyond that point in time. These rumors may reflect an agreement by the EU to let these gold sales proceed until they are finished. For reasons set forth in earlier reports, it is our belief that we may be in the last stage of these sales prior to EMU. 

Veneroso Associates: All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

You need more optimism. These ARE troubled times and this is rather disheartening given the delightful information eminating from the World News orgainzations daily. Yesterday, AG said that this is the best economy he has seen in 50 years of his career. President BC continues to keep the Baby-Boomers happy including the subset of individulas know as 'Soccer-Moms'. We are living in a world that has low-levels of inflation, record employment, and the populace feeling good about the 'bread-and-circuses' they've been allowed to enjoy.

You and I know that this is a false economy that has historical ties to other times and places with similar associations with 'fiat'. Despite all the analysis and posturing we know this to be true. We are preparing for the demise of world currencies by purchasing GOLD/SILVER. Some of us are also preparing inother ways.

There are those among us that see a different reality. One which is rarely seen. It has the magnitude of capturing the attention on practically ever person on earth - and it is with these statisitics - that provide the fodder for the most promoted individual event of recent times. It is their '15-minute' - from my experience - I do not intend to give it to them.

In the past 40 years many events have come-n-gone. Kennedy's short-life; Viet-Nam, Watergate, Iran hostages, Tiannamen, the former USSR, Presidential scandals. With all these events there are 2 that have changed ( and could have changed ) the landscape of the Americas and perhaps the world. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,*****,,, The FIRST - Barry Goldwater's loss in the Presidential bid which could have changed the outcome of the Viet Nam war and on-goin history; a defining moment that chose Medicare and the welfare state over conservatism and self-sufficiency. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,*****,,,, the SECOND ,,,, when Ronald Reagan was elected President of the U.S. and challenged communism ---- "Mr. Gorbachev - Tear Down this wall" ,,,, these are moments that change the course; that one remembers in the succeeding generation ,,,

These were turning points in history. ,,, 1 is a coulda/shoulda/woulda - the other - an example of actual progress in the human spirit -- one that challenges the common place;;; one that does not falter in a quest for righting-the-wrongs by accepting flawed principals. It is this personality that cannot be swayed by popular belief or public opinion. It is this person who has a built-in genetic component that we must associate with the term - 'fate'.

The scenarios that are being disseminated throughout every nook-n-cranny of media outlet both publicly and privately are not true in spirit;;; there's an agenda here ,,, one that is difficult to recognize on the surface ,,, one that is complex enough to baffle scientists and educators to the point that they formulate models to predict an entropy that refutes their existing models because of invalid 'a priori' assumptions ;;; this is bad science ,,, they are validating the 'Cretan's paradox' by which a contradiction is implied by the statement of Epimedes the Cretan that all Cretans are liars ..,, --- -----**----,,,,,..........---- yes there are many problems that need to be resolved and discussed - BUT this is not of the same magnitude as the previously outlined historical developments above stated.

To the dedicated people providing a valuable service the their communities - I applaud you - there are many thousands of you. I ( we ) am ( are ) greatly indebted to you for your ability to resolve particular issues in computing at a time when others are seeing opportunities for financial gain at the expense of others. The statistics are staggering ,,,, the world population focused on a single item ,,,, if only each one spend $XX - what this wil do to boost the economy of the affected sector ---- and ahhhhhhhhhhh the soma we induce ( cf: Rand ) will keep the masses available for our every input command...

I hereby state: If anyone is left to starve or become homeless they are welcome in my home and I will feed them and their families for as long as it takes to survive this ordeal. If you feel strongly about this please post your address and I will be in contact with you to discuss any details with you.

Shorty, I will be travelling the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and exploring placing that I've not seen. When I return I hope to find you ( and others ) in better spirits ,,, Here's one for ya':
,,,,
AN ENGINEER'S SOLILOQUY

To summon the engineer or not ... that is the question.

Whether in this legacy of Babbage's fertile brain
Some errant, failing part may yet be found
That thwarts completion of my ill-starred run
And makes a mockery of production schedules.

Or in the cryptic logic of that troubled task,
An ancient algorithm exhumed from dusty archives,
I failed to set a switch, initialize a laggard subroutine,
Or overlay a segment of the miserly core.

Perchance, the dozing Operator, sleep bereft,
Bestowed with leaden hand an unsought aid,
And made himself the author of this mountainous dump
Whose octal mystery shrouds an endless loop, and puzzles the mind.

Aye, there's the rub.

For in that chartless realm of ill-conceived branches and motley patches
A mortal swain could scare his earthly wits sustain.

For who would bear the double-talk of manuals,
The analyst's wishful celebration,
The deadline that fall a week before,
The bellowing salesman's mendacious pitch,
Or files forever lost or scratched when he, himself
Might yet his final End-of-Job attain by surreptitious alteration.

But that the thought of no recurrent paycheck must give him pause
And send him back again, with darkened mien,
To curse anew a damned and down machine.

AG said it's gonna GET WORSE, by saying "I've never seen it this good in my 50 years of......"

never ensure happiness, Man never learns from experience otherwise there would not be wars and discord, Dreams are never a reality, Getting there never means that you have arrived, We can never comprehend God's plan.

The only power that endures is Love..

ALL NEW.........................................Software is not compatible with previous versions.
ADVANCED DESIGN.......................Upper management doesn't understand it.
BREAKTHROUGH...........................It finally booted on the first try.
NEW................................................Different colors from previous version.
DESIGN SIMPLICITY.......................Developed on a shoe string budget.
EXCLUSIVE......................................We're the only ones who have the documentation.
FIELD TESTED................................Manufacturing doesn't have a test system.
FOOLPROOF OPERATION..................All parameters are hard-coded.
FUTURISTIC........................................It will only run on the next generation
supercomputer.
HIGH ACCURACY.................................All the directories compare.
IT'S HERE AT LAST.............................Released a 26-week project in 48 weeks.
MAINTENANCE FREE..........................Impossible to fix.
MEETS QUALITY STANDARDS..........It compiles without errors.
PERFORMANCE PROVEN...................Works through beta test.
REVOLUTIONARY................................Disk drives go round and round.
SATISFACTION GUARANTEED...........We'll send you another copy if it fails.
STOCK ITEM.........................................We shipped it once before and we can do it again.
UNMATCHED........................................Almost as good as the competition.
UNPRECEDENTED PERFORMANCE..Nothing ever ran this slow before.
YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT.................Finally got one to work.

this from the WSJ a few weeks back:
'Clinton move may lenghten Lewinsky probe'

Don't know nuttin' 'bout "gold seal" V's. Just know Lonnie won't take $250,000. for his V. I'm fairly ignorant of solid bodies....my "limited knowledge" is jazz boxes. I'm not much of a jazz player, but I sure do like the sounds of a fat, hollow guitar....mostly a songsmith ( copped out player ) . Great last post, by the way!!!!!

hypocritical, saying what we dont mean ( that is one step closer to lying ) and seldom saying what we truly feel ( that is one step closer to giving false impression, i.e decieving ) .

If one is supposed to be skilled enough to decipher the hidden meaning in the word and read between the lines, then why the charade, heck, lets just say it like it is.

I don't neccessarily think they would go full speed. Just a little bit
of an insurance policy as a bit of prudence. I haven't heard of any
buying more than about ten tons or so, but then we don't hear everything,
do we?

I'm a musicain from years past with recording BUT have just started to learn reading music attending my son's piano lessons --- back in the old days , one needed to sound good and have good 'licks' to record ,,,, now-a-days it is necessary ,,,,, when I was doin' clubs I was a kid makin' money to pay for college ,,,, oved it ,,,, looking back - I may have been somebody if I were able to read-n-write ---INSTEAD---- I'm a has-been poster on the internet ,,,,

I only know of 1 other 'Gold-Seal Flying-V' similar to mine ---- Michael Schenker from 'UFO' ----- there were only 500 pieces made and I have one -----
thanx for the info re: jazz ----- btw: I met John McLaughlin twice and goofed-off-with-Fripp once ,,,,,, do you know who they are ? ,,,,,

EB I have no problem with your views on Gold and Silver Ugh Ugh ---But leave the C$ dollar alone  or else I will blast you with my 3000 supersonic water pistol Smat-Gurgle-Poof --Away for more Summer fun.

Rangy has hit its 52 week low this A.M.

I will now buy more and add to my current limit orders ,,,,, I goota' stop getting sidetracked on non-gold-related-issues ,,,,,

Thank you

Please describe ...... Cold Spring Harbor

WetGold....You have a good heart.

I personnally have never been challenged by so many moral, political, and technical problems earlier. I'm in software development since almost 30 years.
I can understand the policy of companies and organizations in the telecommunication industry which forbid their employees to talk publicly about any aspect connected with this Y2K problem. They cannot afford to admit that there are problems for which no reliable solutions are in sight. ( Like the embedded chips problem and the impossibility to test real traffic networks in production. ) If we all could have an open and public discussion about where we really stand and every company would be forced to disclose material information about their Year 2000 issues we probably would all win: experts as well as non-experts.

Probably the SEC ( Securities and Exchange Commission ) is on the right track when it announced plans yesterday to enforce more public information about the Y2K issues for individual companies. This gives the investors more information and serves the general public. Informed people have also less of a tendency towards panic bahaviour.

About the SEC initiative reports today The Washington Post on page C4 in the Business Secition.

Like John, my favorite is a Johnnie Smith..WoW!!!what an axe!...don't know Fripp, sorry. I also "went back" to the Yamaha School of Music for five years ... and still need help! Is the Gold Seal a Gibson?, if so, what year? Off to the office to hear horror stories! ( gulp ) catch ya' later........

I think the writing is on the wall just with the press releases that GM have released.
Budget of $500m spent $40m - 18mths to go.

This I take as more warning than the spiel from a radical.

When you read between the lines you can grasp the enormity - $Trillions

Empirically y2k looms large.

As to my personal position, it has just pushed forward some dreams.
I'm optimistic my house will be sold soon - so I can enjoy -
Life at the beach, relaxing, no debt, bit of fishing, 24hrs a day with the family.

What better way to welcome in the millenium.
We will have to wait to see.

I don't want any view to knock me off my perch.
I'll jump the fence when I choose.

looking good...any news?

Bailed on my drooy...took all my gain away ...crap!!

Some equtaions to keep in mind in light of financial chaos caused by the
high valuation of the dollar ( which gets amplified by flight capitol as
other currencies go down ) and we attempt to decipher various political/
banking statements:

Raisng rates = bullish for dollar ( particularly bonds and stocks )
Threaten to raise rates = bearish for dollar ( don't be holding bonds
( same as rumored raise ) BEFORE they are going
to raise. )
Lowering rates = bearish for dollar
Threaten to lower rates = bullish for dollar

Threaten

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/worthington.html

sharefin, All: Not what I call bullish for gold. Despite the weak US markets at this time, apparently the baby boomers are still piling the money in, and the rising dollar indicates foreign 'flight to safety'. As one of our fellow Kitcoites said - either today or yesterday -- the currency of next-to-last resort is the dollar. Last resort will be gold. But not yet. The 'fiat' addicts have not given up.

My guess is that the commodity price index must bottom, and turn back up. -- Then gold will start to rise. We could have the dollar bull /gold bull rally ANOTHER alluded to, which I now understand. That may well be the sign of the final stages before 'fiat' currency collapse -- when only one chair is left ( other than gold ) , or equivalently, the time when the central post of the 'fiat' tent will fall.

The only wild card in this scenario is a earnings report disaster in US firms due to derivatives trade losses or credit risk losses. Each 'ping' shakes out a few more -- I would guess Banks on the top of the list. Interesting times with strong deflationary and inflationary waves passing in different directions.

What little I have left in equities is in silver, defense and retail. Fidelity select retail actually went up yesterday -- amazing. Did you all know that Warren Buffett bought a substantial chunk of WalMart about 5-6 months ago? I didn't know until yesterday. He is one sharp cookie!

Yes, it is a Gibson - Limited Edition. I just opened the case for the first time in many years --- no year on it but any info would help ,,,,,

btw: when I played in my day ( each day for many/many hours ) I was not worried about warping ,,,, now, since it sits, need I be concerned with storage ? What to do ???? This is an extremely valuable intrument ---- hopefully, never have to sell it '''''

WETGOLD, I'm with ya...cleaning house to buy more RANGY. This feels like buying DROOY last December. Ya gotta buy low before you can sell high. And of course the POG could help a bit too : )

And now with the yen rate, I'll be able to afford a meal at McDonalds again.

beef tenderloin...a dash of mustard, fresh baked bread, my neighbor is naked and washing her hair...Molson, a four legged neighbor stopped by to have breakfast...

boats are coming and going in the harbor...birds are chirping...LIFE IS GRAND...

Living large on the Island that is Long, handing out gold and silver like its candy...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

Johnnie Smith no longer plays but is a fantastic cook and wonderful conversationalist. My favorite is Doc Watson.

Tolerant1, can I bring my 5 string to cold spring?

The Canadian governemnt has mismanaged the C$ for the past 2 years, leting it slide. Thiessen is either an idiot or wants the looney down near Australian levels. All comments from the BOC point to this.
The $C looney has a long way down the the $A.
Another small reason for Canadians to protect their assets with Gold, yes?
Although Gold in US$ terms is not looking good........
The US$ is on an international rampage.

my greatest fear here, and I really hope I'm wrong, is that the Dow ( not S&P ) has made this perfect rounded top formation. IMO this is the pancreatic cancer of charting and the resolution could be just below 8 grand.


money could have bought 20 more lifeboats for the titanic or remedial action for the EIGHTY-FIVE % of businesses that have done nothing about y2k - hang on kiddies -

jobless fell to 315k from rev 338
Autos sales +1.2%; rise biggest since 3.5% in feb 97
retail sales +0.9%

with a goodly portion of Japanese assets invested in US treasuries yeilding 6-7% how might one be "unhappy" watching the USD rise relative to JY?

also trade defict rising substancially brings in even more "dallahs"

rubin and greenie bullied cftc chairwoman to cease her her study of regulating derivatives; bobby pulling all the stops to get the gs sale off?

as you say the japanese money is well invested and the carry is very profitable. that is exactly the reason why the yen is actually too weak; not that I believe it'll recover soon...

maybe the americans should learn something from the japanese

...one fine day when everyone is confortably long Sept bondos at 130 the Japanese will cash in a goodly part of those treasuries ( about 300 billion worth ) and convert it back into JY ( after converting it from JY into USD's at levels much higher than today ) ....total profit in JY will be enormous .....paerhaps even enough to pay off 40% of the bank bad debt losses
its called diversification, hedge etc

most of it was bought when JY was 100 and over to USD so you see it ain't a losing proposition for em

In fact in a world where just about every devious invention is used.... Japan may be the ones pressuring their own currency downward to be able to cash in at even more attractive rates

fact of the matter is that in spite of all the press concerning severe problems there, the Japanese are still the wealthiest peoples on this planet by a long shot

just think for a moment of another example of a country that can keep interest rates down at .5% for 3 years and have only a marginal effect on the valuation of it's currency

for the first time in history, there is more money in stocks than in residential real estate - looks like there wont be a wall paper shortage

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FEATURE-Yen rate risks entering new orbit vs dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/feature_ye_2.html

The yield curve is just about flat. What are the potential implications of this or if it goes inverted? Thanks for any comments.

MoReGoLd: Mismanagement or good policy depends on the objective. The gov wants the C$ low to give it a trade advantage over the US$ in the US and now that the Asian demand for Canadian lumber etc is dropping --there too. What is the advantage of a strong C$ now? Or a strong Oz$ either--none that I can see. While it is fashionable to say the C$ is low because of a lack of gold backing the plan is to keep it that way and the gold sales ended about a decade ago as far as I can remember. Hard to believe the C4 dropped 2US cents because of old gold sales--its policy man--low interest rates-- low C$--better exports--more jobs. Doesn't fit in with Kitco thinking but that is what is going on.

been having computer problems. Not sure if solved.

Including or excluding gold, EUR 11 holds much more foreign exchange reserves than the USA or Japan.

Gold included, EUR 11 had 20.6% of the world total in November last year; Japan had 13.8% and the USA 4.1%.
http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/eurostat/compres/en/4098/6104098a.htm

Most CERTAINLY!!! A GIANT ISLAND THAT IS LONG GULP TO YA!!!

Does that mean you are anti or pro gold? Judging from your previous statements, you are anti ( not that there is anything wrong with that ) . I enjoy postings from both sides ( more info to digest ) .
IMVHO, I thought the EC$ would have been backed by way more than the 10-15% mentioned which would have been very good for gold. I think we may still be in for a big surprise when the official %age comes out because it would have been interesting to know who was present to form the 10 to 15% consensus. By that I mean, were all countries involved present or were only countries with small amounts of gold backing present only. It is very hard for me to believe that Germany, France, Italy would agree to such a small %age.
Gold mining outlook by Kaplan is a very interesting read but the investment community doesn't agree. I hope he is right. Go Gold. Any comments would be appreciated. A great day to all.

Provided by Global Millennium Foundation

Year 2000 Progress for Canada by Sector:
( as of June 5, 1998 )

Sector Percentage Complete

Federal Government 20-25%
Provincial Governments 10-15%
Telecommunications 15-20%
Hydro 10-15%
Municipalities 5-10%
Healthcare 5-10%
Largest Employers 15-20%
Financial Services 35-40%

Comments:

Overall Canada has completed 20-25% of the effort to correct the Year
2000 problem. All indicators suggest we will not complete the required
work in the little time remaining. These numbers are fairly close to
the most recent statistics from the United States.

The least prepared categories are healthcare and municipalities. This
information has been confirmed through direct contact with
representative samples from both sectors.

Both Alberta and Ontario have recognized the threat from a healthcare
perspective, and the provincial governments have made several hundreds
of millions of dollars available to replace defective equipment. The
key issue will be the time to locate which devices will fail and then
order the replacement parts or new equipment.

Many of the largest organizations are beginning to experience problems
due to staff resignations for higher paying positions or staff burnout
due to excessive workloads.

Acceleration of the Year 2000 projects has not yet occurred, because
in many cases, senior management are busy with short term issues such
as merger considerations.

No overall coordination exists for the country or any single province.
This will result in a waste of resources and duplication of effort. No
large organization has been successful in addressing their Year 2000
problem without overall coordination.

There is a growing trend in the US to accept that we have lost the
race against the clock and must resign ourselves to significant
disruptions when the century changes. The result is an increase in the
number of "experts" who are moving to rural properties and starting to
prepare themselves with extra supplies. Naturally, this will take away
from our ability to fix the problem.

Joe Boivin
President, Global Millennium Foundation
http://WWW.GLOBALMF.ORG>http://WWW.GLOBALMF.ORG

Provided by Global Millennium Foundation

Year 2000 Progress for Canada by Sector:
( as of June 5, 1998 )

Sector Percentage Complete

Federal Government 20-25%
Provincial Governments 10-15%
Telecommunications 15-20%
Hydro 10-15%
Municipalities 5-10%
Healthcare 5-10%
Largest Employers 15-20%
Financial Services 35-40%

Comments:

Overall Canada has completed 20-25% of the effort to correct the Year
2000 problem. All indicators suggest we will not complete the required
work in the little time remaining. These numbers are fairly close to
the most recent statistics from the United States.

The least prepared categories are healthcare and municipalities. This
information has been confirmed through direct contact with
representative samples from both sectors.

Both Alberta and Ontario have recognized the threat from a healthcare
perspective, and the provincial governments have made several hundreds
of millions of dollars available to replace defective equipment. The
key issue will be the time to locate which devices will fail and then
order the replacement parts or new equipment.

Many of the largest organizations are beginning to experience problems
due to staff resignations for higher paying positions or staff burnout
due to excessive workloads.

Acceleration of the Year 2000 projects has not yet occurred, because
in many cases, senior management are busy with short term issues such
as merger considerations.

No overall coordination exists for the country or any single province.
This will result in a waste of resources and duplication of effort. No
large organization has been successful in addressing their Year 2000
problem without overall coordination.

There is a growing trend in the US to accept that we have lost the
race against the clock and must resign ourselves to significant
disruptions when the century changes. The result is an increase in the
number of "experts" who are moving to rural properties and starting to
prepare themselves with extra supplies. Naturally, this will take away
from our ability to fix the problem.

Joe Boivin
President, Global Millennium Foundation
http://WWW.GLOBALMF.ORG

From Sharefin's Avid Chatter post:

"with a goodly portion of Japanese assets invested in US treasuries yielding 6-7% how might one be "unhappy" watching the USD rise relative to JY?

also trade deficit rising substantially brings in even more "dallahs"

as you say the Japanese money is well invested and the carry is very profitable. that is exactly the reason why the yen is actually too weak; not that I believe it'll recover soon...

maybe the Americans should learn something from the Japanese"

The Round-eyed Magician has been/is working diligently to present a view of Japan's problems that is misleading, at best. The core problem is systemic and global and antedates the 1985 Plaza Accords ( the point in time when Japan acceded to the demands that it become the 'liquidity engine'
What a pathetic mess.

Corporate Accountability Project

Of the world's 100 largest economies, 51 are now global corporations, rather than countries.

"I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. ... corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed."

U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, Nov. 21, 1864 ( letter to Col. William F. Elkins ) Ref: "The Lincoln Encyclopedia", Archer H. Shaw ( Macmillan, 1950, NY )
http://www.corporations.org/

How the System Works ( or doesn't work ) and What to Do About It

Of the world's 100 largest economies, 51 are now global corporations. The richest 1 percent of Americans own 40 percent of all U.S. assets. The combined assets of 358 billionaires equal the combined assets of almost half the world's population.

The courts have given corporations the basic Constitutional rights of persons, but workers lose those rights on entering the workplace.

The corporate share of taxes paid has fallen from 33 percent in the 1940's to 15 percent in the 1990's. Individuals' share of taxes has risen from 44 to 73 percent.

The new World Trade Organization effectively gives corporations veto power over our U.S. environmental and labor laws, weakening your right to protect ourselves and our land by our legislation.

If this bothers you, read on and then do something about it.
http://www.envirolink.org/issues/system/index.html

no introduction...through-out the world it is "money." Me...I am huge gold, silver and platinum...big time...Who cares what some European pie-holes are up to...meaningless...

What I cannot bury I am giving away...things have value...paper, well, Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...paper is only as good as the word of those who print it...

The metals...especially silver........yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

American currency power reminds me of the beast on many waters somewhere in the Bible Now everybody get in line or else ---Does the beast use mouthwash? The stink around Asia, Middle East, Russia will come back to haunt the American dream ---Booboo --Everything has a time Away to work on the patio.

maintains last sales by ECBs nearing completion.

Subject:
Gold Watch
Date:
Thu, 11 Jun 1998 09:03:42 -0400
From:
Veneroso.Associates@mx3.home.com
To:
gc601@home.com




Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 11,1998 Issue 06.03
John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso


The Gold Market
 ECB Reserves: A 10% to 15% Gold Share


Summary
 The consensus among European central bank governors for a 10% to 15% share of gold in ECB reserves
reflects a preference for more liquid dollars and a compromise between the negative attitudes of
central banking technocrats towards gold and the more positive attitudes of some European
politicians whose constituencies value some "gold backing" for the Euro.
 This decision is largely symbolic. Political considerations will lead to a cessation of European
official gold sales for several years once the Euro is issued in 1999.
 This symbolic move will undermine gold market sentiment, leading to more producer hedging and
speculator short selling than otherwise.
 Recent EMU related official gold sales prior to EMU will abate. The big liquidations of gold in
Asia are over. With the abatement of the unusual supplies from above ground stocks that caused the
1997-1998 gold bear market, the gold price will recover to its 1994-1996 level despite a continued
flow of central bank sales and loans of 1000 tonnes per year. A somewhat adverse decision on ECB
gold reserves will slow this price recovery by encouraging producer hedging and dissuading
speculative buying.
Recent Flows
The gold market rebounded off last Tuesday's lows, possibly because of rumored producer
buybacks. The CFTC report on the Comex position of traders showed a large 53,000 net fund short
position as of that date. The Comex open interest continued to build despite a small rally through
the following Monday. We understand that, based on expectations of global deflation, funds
continued to pour in on the short side in almost all commodities. It is rumored that Tuesday's
$5.00 rally was due in part to one large fund covering its shorts because the CFTC report showed
that it had too much company on the short side.
Rumors of Russian sales also encouraged fund short selling. Russia had $19 billion in
reserves last fall. These reserves fell to just below $11 billion early this year, with $4.5
billion in gold. Reserves fell another $1 billion in early May but, in response to the large rise
in ruble interest rates, these reserves have recently recovered most of that decline. There is no
indication that Russian reserve gold has been sold.
ECB Gold Reserves
FRANKFURT, June 9 - ( Bloomberg ) "We haven't made a precise decision yet, the decision has to be
made ( Duisenberg ) said. There is a consensus among central bank governors it will be around 10 to
15 percent.
The gold market sold off Tuesday on a statement by Wim Duisenberg that the ECB would hold
only 10%-15% of its reserves in gold. Market expectations were in the 15% to 25% range.

Strangely, the ECB may not hold yen, the only other currency option beside dollars and gold.

FRANKFURT, June 9 ( Reuters ) European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said on Tuesday that it
remained an open question whether Japanese yen would be a part of the ECB foreign exchange reserves.

Governor Fazio of the Bank of Italy made a statement several months ago that gold might
constitute 30% of ECB reserves. Governor Trichet of the Bank of France has made numerous pro gold
statements. Both central banks hold large gold reserves. A higher gold reserve ratio in the ECB
might improve gold market sentiment, thereby raising the market value of the substantial gold
reserves of these central banks. Yet, the ratio will most likely be 10% to 15%. Why have the
European central banks opted for a low gold reserve ratio in the ECB?
There are two likely reasons. First, the ECB will apparently hold mostly dollars. Dollars
are the most liquid of foreign exchange assets. The $55 billion ECB will be the apex institution
for the $330 billion System of European Central Banks and will be the first line of defense in any
attack on the new Euro. It is likely that such liquidity considerations weighed heavily in the
emerging consensus on ECB reserve composition.
Second, EMU is a project that has been pushed forward by European politicians and European
Union technocrats against the preferences of the political constituencies in most of Europe. The EU
technocrats involved tend to regard gold as a relic from another era they are stuck with because
they own too much of it to sell and because there is still an irrational attachment to it on the
part of the public in some European countries. Wim Duisenberg, whose Dutch central bank has been a
conspicuous seller of gold, is probably in this camp. Ottmar Issing, who will be in charge of ECB
monetary policy, reportedly believes gold has no proper role in a modern monetary system. Yet,
after last year's public response to Finance Minister Weigel's move to revalue the Bundesbank's gold
reserves, he understands that public and political sentiment calls for some gold in the ECB. A 10%
to 15% gold reserve ratio may be a compromise between today's central bank technicians, who see no
need for gold as a central bank reserve asset, and those politicians in France, Germany, and Italy
who believe their voters, skeptical of the new Euro, would prefer some gold "backing" to the new
Euro.
A decision to hold 10% to 15% of ECB reserves in gold is largely a symbolic issue. The
French and Germans will ultimately determine the disposition of the large reserve assets that will
be held at the level of the individual country central banks. We continue to believe that, once the
new Euro is issued, these central banks will opt for no gold sales in order to maximize support from
their skeptical populations for the new Euro. It is noteworthy that Terry Smeeton, while still at
the Bank of England, predicted a 10% to 15% share of gold in the reserves of the new ECB but
expected that, for these political reasons, there would be no further European gold sales once the
Euro is issued at the end of 1998.

LONDON, March 19 - ( Reuters ) But once the Euro gets underway, gold in reserves is unlikely to be
sold for some time, Smeeton said. "I would have thought that initially after monetary union there
will be a tendency to see how it works out before making any major changes in reserve composition.
I regard monetary union as a hazardous enterprise and that it would be improbable that we are going
to see major disinvestment when it starts, until we are absolutely sure that it's for keeps," he
said.

Though this may be the case, a 10% to 15% share of gold in ECB reserves is somewhat symbolic
of the negative attitude of today's central bankers toward gold. Such symbolism will affect gold
market sentiment. Many of the major gold producers were led by some European central bankers to
believe that the new ECB would take a more pro gold position. Some of these producers have been
covering hedges. On balance, such symbolism will lead the producer sector to hedge more,
particularly on rallies. Such symbolism will also make funds more comfortable on the short side of
the gold market and less willing to go long.
A rumor has been circulating that the European central bank governors are allowing those
European central banks that want to hold less gold to reduce their gold reserves through the end of
the year. To announce major future gold sales by European central banks would probably depress the
gold price and prove to be counter productive. It is our belief that one or more European central
banks have been selling gold to reduce their official gold holdings. The large liquidations of gold
in Asia in recent quarters have probably made it difficult for these central banks to meet their
objectives by May, requiring gold sales beyond that point in time. These rumors may reflect an
agreement by the EU to let these gold sales proceed until they are finished. For reasons set forth
in earlier reports, it is our belief that we may be in the last stage of these sales prior to EMU. 

Veneroso Associates: All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

Memo to myself--Don't post before the coffee perksl..{:- )

I am convinced you are right. Global corporations are into gold BigTime,
and ( my work indicates ) make purchases quietly through BIS accounts.
The EC info is 'interesting' because it evinces the Janus quality of
political pronouncements. Folks need to understand this, yes? {:- )

BGR announced today that its long standing dispute with Revenue Canada regarding the taxation of trading profits as income versus capital gains has been settled. This issue was out there for many, many years. BGR had a contingency of $1.41 per share as on Jan 31/98. The settlemwnt will result in the Net Asset Value being reduced by .75 per share. As of last Thursday, the Net Asset Value was $14.90. Adjusted, it would be $14.15. My estimate of the Net Asset Value as of yesterday is $13.90. A 30% discount would place the target price for bottom fishers at $9.73.That's about where it is this morning.

Dreifontein is well below $6.00. Look at a MONTHLY chart at http://www.bigcharts.com and add Bollinger Bands.

and ONE paint brush can paint the whole picture........ ( hmmmmm ) ......sheeesh.

Now I know that they truly know NOT what they speak of but just read in books and newspapers and see on TV and on the back of cereal boxes while eating their nutter butter cookies and shifting their blinders to suit them. And I believe EVERYTHING I read. Oh, kiwi and ArragontIII and Giannogotothestoreformorecraptoreaddunno.........keep up the good work.......whilst I scratch my head in amusement and pile all the money I own into mutual funds and stuff my face to 24% obesity ( that's relevant ) ......and do other crap that the dumbass press says that I ( 260,000,000 of us ) do on a constant basis....oh yeah, and I have five girlfriends and they all have speaking parts in Baywatch too...........

260,000,000 is alot of people.....go paint your picture and try to be taken seriously ) . As big as the whole European union........hmmmmmmmm........union ( ? ) ........now that's something to ponder............ ( yeah right ) ...

Now, go make an appt. w/ your shrinks and talk to him about this fixation/love affair you have with your Yankee-Doodles........it is contagious.....I know, I read about it all the time.

If you want to attack me....then attack *ME*.....not all of the US. It is not fair and shows ignorance. What kind of picture do you paint of *OUR* HUGE Asian population or the huge Latin poulation or the Brits or the Aussies or the Germans or the French or the Blacks or the Irish or the Arab or the Russian or the............... ( how many hundreds of thousands of people have I left out ) .......??? No, do not show your ignorance to the whole of kitco....they are too intelligent to respond. I am the token dumbass respondent.

Nuff said.........this is starting to suck......and I need more coffee to wash down my nutter-butter-peanut-butter-sandwich-cookie.........

btw, ArrogantIII - thanks for worrying about my fortune but it is not necessary. Worry about yourself friend....and thank you so much for all the compliments....left handed or right.....I speak both languages...........good on ya mate.

kiwi - I have had many bottles of your vino...from Aussie to NZ.....they ARE good....but I prefer local wines. They are easy to purchase and good too.......reeeeeeaal good. ( I live in an excellent grape growing area........our grapes are exported to other countries )

aurator-I felt the swat mate.....tanks.

away....from here....



F* - welcome back.........bye.......welcome back ......bye......welcome back.........bye........welcome back.........bye.........etc..... ( is gold at 330 yet? ) ...... ( wow ) .....

go gold....... ( ? )

( I didn't tell anyone to buy more yankee toilet paper.....they are just doing it on their own.......perhaps they read about doing it on the back of their Captain-Crunch Cereal box while dreaming of hotdogs and cold beer )

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi

Tol#1 - you are one fine Merkan.........not the kind that one reads about in the press.......the truly fine ones.......uh huh ( wink ) . agulp to ya!

Woody: I am no expert -- Donald is our resident banker. What I know about this is that it is a sign of tight credit -- even if the FED does not raise rates. If you don't know already, due to the infinite wisdom of our leaders, the majority of US treasuries are short-term only, so if interest rates go the wrong way the interest on our debt goes the wrong way only about 12 months later.

My guess is that AG does not dare raise rates due to the international situation, and the strengthening dollar. He might even be thinking of lowering rates to weaken the dollar, but if he does, he risks bubbling the US markets even more. If he really boosts rates to tank the markets ( and indirectly cause the dollar to drop ) , he may go down in history as the FED chairman who caused the 1998 crash ( 1929 remake ) . He won't want to do that.

So rates will probably remain unchanged. Unfortunately the investors in the US markets know that, and they do not seem to be willing to wait for earnings to match prices. Interesting times -- not something most people 50'ish or younger have experience with. Hope my comments help.

XAU below 70

eblm@mci2000.com
mail me if you like regarding sugar, plat etc. My strategies are best not shared here.....I have various term outlooks . Thank you for the charts.....I love a good chart backed with sound explanation. Charts-Fartz......markets 'l do what they do....eventually......EH?
away.....for a time


tolerant1: I don't have scenic views like that where I live, just a few lakes and small mountains where I can watch the Red Tailed Hawks soar on the thermals.

I think you get my vote for the next Fed Chairman -- looks like your are the Johnny Appleseed of gold.

My wife -- who usually has common sense about financial things, is slowly coming about regarding having a precious metals nest egg of at least a few months worth. The public is slowly coming around.

The Cash Croppers: All USDA Subsidies

The Cash Croppers: State-by-state Comparisons

The "cash croppers" phenomenon -- big subsidy payments to a small number of recipients -- was found in every state. Payments to the top 2 percent of subsidy recipients ranged from a low of 16.8 percent of all payments in North Dakota, to a high of 51.8 percent of all payments in Arizona.
California had the highest average payment going to the top 2 percent of recipients ( the 962 recipients making up the top 2 percent of California recipients received average payments of more than $1 million over 10 years ) , followed by Arizona ( $794,971 per recipient among the top 2 percent ) , Arkansas ( $785,284 per recipient among the top 2 percent ) , Montana ( $703,519 per recipient among the top 2 percent ) , and Mississippi ( $691,834 per recipient among the top 2 percent ) .
http://www.ewg.org/pub/home/Reports/Croppers/Chapter_1.html

Foreword

As the big debate over the future of farm policy draws to a close, the bold talk of reform among Republicans has faded to an embarrassed whisper about a "freedom to farm bill" that is nothing more than the status quo done up in revolutionary drag.

And even that meager effort to address government intrusion in farm markets and taxpayers' pockets is too radical for the GOP's big, bulging farm belt.

What's more, according to the Administration:

"Chronic problems in rural America persist, including lack of employment opportunities, poor housing, high poverty rates, high illiteracy and low levels of education, lack of development skills within local governments, a general lack of institutional and organizational infrastructure, and a lack of access to credit....Thirteen percent of rural Americans have incomes below the poverty line, which almost matches the poverty rate for central cities." ( See Note 1. )
http://www.ewg.org/pub/home/Reports/Croppers/Foreword.html

The Cash Croppers home page.

http://www.ewg.org/pub/home/Reports/Croppers/Cash_Croppers.html

Re yield curve. The NY Fed published a study ( among many ) on the yeild curve and economic activity. If the slope of the yield curve is defined as the difference between the yields on 3 month bills and 10 year notes, then they say the probability of a recession 4 quarters ahead is:.76-10%,.22-20%, -.17-30%, -.5-40%, -.82-50%,-1.13-60%,-1.46-70%,-2.40-90%.
As you can see, once the 3 month rates start getting higher than the 10 yr rates, the probability of a recession is rather significant.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/greenspan__19.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GAO says agency systems headed for Y2K breakdown
http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/0608/web-gaoy2k-6-10-1998.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Government reports Y2K work progressing
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/more/cahners/11368/3387700/30
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Feds concerned about Y2K progress
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ctc895.htm
plus six more links - sectors
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
German failure to tackle bug threatens chaos across Europe
http://www.scotsman.com/interactive/it05news980610.1.html
GERMAN companies are sleep-walking towards a millennium computer bomb disaster - and the fallout threatens chaos across Europe.

"Germany is causing concern within Europe because almost 74 per cent of companies there say they don't expect to complete compliance measures by 31 December, 1999," according to SRI International, a hi-tech consultancy.

Major companies such as Siemens, Daimler-Benz and BMW, have rectified the problem, but a lot of smaller companies don't have the time, money or expertise to fix their systems for the euro and the Year 2000 at the same time, said an SRI analyst, Adam Wright. Failure on this scale would hit big companies' supply chains, even if all their own computers had been fixed to handle the change to 2000.

"The worrying thing about Germany is that by and large it is still in [Year 2000] denial," said Andy Kyte, a research director at the Gartner Group. "I don't see any evidence of clear and unambiguous leadership in the political or business community where heavyweight and reputable individuals are prepared to stand up and be counted."

He added: "You could apply the same criticisms to Austria, Switzerland, Spain, France and Italy: sophisticated economies with high dependence on computer systems and still a very small percentage of IT budgets being diverted to 2000 compliance."

Fall, platinum, fall! So I can buy more of 'ya . . .

Fall, gold, fall! So I can kick myself 'agin for not realizin' that you could fall so far . . . Ooooooooooooo . . . that hurts so good . . .

Like a dream . . . falling, falling, falling . . . nightmare stuff . . .

When will the world wake up and sell merkan toilet paper and buy their own well re-used tp?

Oh.

EB: Chill, dude. 'Yer appreciated.

EB, NAMASTE' A HUGE ISLAND THAT IS LONG GULP RIGHT BACK AT YA!!! And remember folks...that which is truly precious has a heartbeat...uh-huh...

DOW DOWN 108 and plunging fast!

=NO US SUPPORT FOR YEN! LET HER PLUNGE! TOO BAD ASIA! DOWN THE TOILET WITH THEE!

DOW DOWN 120!

If you have any sources for the ranges of anything traded such as the above would you please help out? I am hoping to find trading patterns in numerous areas to introduce some disipline into my buying and selling. Thanks

GM

I'm sorry I missed your post yesterday afternoon, I went for s walk and you were gone before I got back. post e-mail and I will respond about grain,

trade the naked neighbor washing her hair for the whooooosh of a thermal..........................Gulp...to YA!!!

tried to get in KB&G last night. Promey and Crazytimes were there, I let them in the back door but I forgot to open the front door ( switch to [available for chat] ) . Very sorry it was all my fault.
.............................................................

From Texas Bix Bender-

"Good judgement comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad
judgment."

"The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."

"Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day." ( or a rainy day -sam )

Thank you for your concern, fortunately my diabetis is controled at the moment by taking two tablets daily 1 Glucontrol, 1 Glucophage, I am well withing the tolerance for blood sugars most of the time UNLESS I fall off the wagon and eat some pie or such. Old Soldier, sorry they keep confusing us with one another, I personally am flattered.

GM says 18

WARREN, Mich., June 11 ( Reuters ) - General Motors Corp on Thursday said about 18,600 North American Operations and Delphi Automotive Systems employees have been idled by the United Auto Workers strike at a parts plant in Flint, Mich

http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/GM-GMN-SAYS-18600.html

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/daily/article/0,1344,11317,00.html

CAC DOWN 67! RUSSIA DOWN 3.3%! Everything is screaming, "DEVALUE! DEVALUE! DEVALUE!" Hyperstrong US $ will kill US exports and massacre the bottom lines and earnings of US corporations! Dow must now begin to discount plunging corporate earnings and rising inventories and inability to raise prices while labor costs surge!

NATO defence ministers OK warning exercises

BRUSSELS ( AP ) -- NATO will mount simulated air raids and bombing runs over Albania and Macedonia, flexing its military muscle to warn Yugoslavia against attacks on ethnic Albanians in separatist-minded Kosovo province.

Alliance defence ministers today authorized the air-power exercise, which could launch NATO warplanes from French, British or U.S. aircraft carriers in the Adriatic. Nearby air bases, such as Aviano Air Base in Italy, could also be used in the effort.

"The deed is done," one NATO official said of the ministers' approval.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.NATO-Kosovo.html

http://www.amanet.org/news/archive/techtalk/09atech.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preparing for the Millennial Midnight
http://www.strategicinvestment.com/

The credit implosion has begun! Seidman says US WILL NOT INTERVENE TO SUPPORT THE YEN!

China urges Japan to halt yen slide

BEIJING ( Reuters ) - China called on Japan Thursday to show "courage and wisdom" to halt the yen's slide, and insisted its policy of not devaluing its own currency remained unchanged.

At a news briefing, foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao also said Beijing continued to back the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar.

His comments came amid mounting concern over the stability of the yuan as the Japanese yen tumbles.

Trade data released Wednesday showing Chinese export growth slowed in May for the first time in 22 months added to worries about whether the yuan, now a bulwark in financially battered Asia, could cave in.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/CHINA-YUAN.html

that's the best advice I've heard for some time thank you. where is B&K if I might ask since I can't seem to find pant's this morning much less anything else.

WILL FORCE AT LEAST 1/3 of JAPANESE BANKS TO DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!

Dow, S&P, NASDAQ ALL cratering. Heh,heh,heh.

Cash is King..Gold is not holding..

Was wondering where "drop-dead" support on gold is?

NIKKEI Futues now show DOWN -395 to 14,855!

.

off 3 to 5 % or so in last several days. I think we need to see a couple of days of 250 t0 400 points drops. Still, there's always the afternoon !

concerning the cause of the depression of '29 to '39 is that excess wealth concentrated in too few hands left isufficient in the hands of
consumers to operate a viable economy. If your figure of 1% now owning 40K% of all US wealth is true, then we are in for a crash, and depression that will dwarf 1929. This overconcentration of wealth also comes with an overconcentration of power over gov't, meaning even those few who know what is coming, and how to fix it, will be too weak to interfere.

Have a happy depression.

U.S. government admits 1997 logging in national forests lost $88 million US

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- After years of ignoring many costs of logging in the 77 million hectares of U.S. national forests, the American government is now admitting timber sales lost more than $88 million last year. The report provides fresh ammunition to critics of the logging program.

In the report to Congress, obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, the Forest Service for the first time included as expenses the upfront cost of building logging roads in figuring out the balance sheet for timber sales.

For more than 20 years, environmental groups have pressured the Forest Service to include such costs, but until now the expenses were defrayed over 99 years. Under the new method of accounting, the losses skyrocketed from $15 million in 1996 -- the first year a loss was ever reported -- to $88.6 million in 1997.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.US-Logging-Losses.html

Who knows. The chartists might tell us, but they only THINK they know.
$42/oz. ???

US$ MUST BE SUPPLANTED BY EURO AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY BEFORE GOLD CAN RISE APPRECIABLY!

Grey skies grey seas, grey winds so cold
Blast polar seas and tropic gold
Bitter the storms of polar seas
Cruel the cyclones tyrannies
Such storms good seamen justly fear
But brave seas moods through all the year
Tho' grim the toll the grey seas take
Of human folly or mistake.

Today her mood is a caress
Flaunting the beautiful blue dress
Sweet dream of peace; and I too dream
With her of peace this day, this night
By quiet sea and calm moonlight

here's to smiles

Be of good cheer. Denmark's bourse is up.

Sam, thanks for the Texas wisdom. Got any more of that? That's pretty funny about the front door. Apologies are never necessary.

Dave, Kitco B&G is at www.icq.com. You have to load it and run it and add KB&G to you list of contacts. 11998901 is their number.

seen it referred to before. Is it because of the "cross ownerships" of Japanese banks and corporations ?

For cheeze head ..
One day you will be right .. so far you have wrong..

for Bloomer ..
Sheesh I followed your personal quaranteed advice
and lost 200,000 US. You got me covered on that ..
right..??

To All
The party was puts .. the dollar is up .. gold is
down. Silver is down .. Plat is down .. Mines are
down.. Puts are up..

I looked at that it thing and it looked like something for pinnin' the tail on the donkey or something.

...I'm hooked! A real KITCO addict. Thanks Bart.

Markets are rendering their verdict today on Greenspan's "THE WORLD IS BLISS" sermon.

They are saying a strong dollar is destroying the world financial system.

They are correct.

Today is the day in which all weak holders of gold, gold stocks, etc., are finally being shaken out.

All those who never held faith in the precious are running for the exits along with millions of fat New Paradigm disciples, nervous nellies who are afraid they may have to sell the wife's Lexus and fire the nanny.

Those who have faith in the precious are a much stronger breed. They will remain calm while all around them there is panic.

Where gold is concerned, I always like the action around 2:00 P.M EST, don't you.....

Thanks.

F*

I strongly recommend pork bellies as a store of value. They keep well in
survival cellars and bomb shelters.

If gold goes to $42oz so will a suit of clothes.

But how many will have a job to buy that suit?

yup...gold, silver and platinum...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Thanks for your thoughts on my epic 22:02 post last night. I crunched a lot of numbers in its development, and the World Gold Council article you posted provided great assistence in my effort...so thanks right back at ya. I hope some of the daytime posters have a chance to scan back and offer any thoughts or contributions to post...or suggest areas for further exploration and development.

Aurator...thanks for the NZ Kiwi info. Let me know if/when the mint replaces its web page.

and what they are going to do to focus everone's attention away from that fact.

ICQ is really very easy unless you run a Mac.

Always drink upstream from the herd. -T B Bender

rhody, you state: "Have a happy depression" Any reasonable person could visualize the result of the insanity of the LOVE of Wealth, without the due respect for VALUE, will cause a depression, many have tried to prevent, and continue to prevent a depression.

Who the hell has been listening? Economic Balance has not been considered, as a reasonable force in our respective nations, all who raise such balance are considered to be from outer space.

Happiness on my part is not possible, because the amount of pain that will be forced upon ALL, is not a prospect I look forward to experience.
Should I have projected such a level of happiness, such expectation is completely wrong. Depression means death and destruction, nothing positive or constructive about a depression. Unless of course you use the yard stick, that opportunists have used, and continue to use.

Be Quiet....Consume....And Die RIGHT! Mushrooms-R-Us
Thanks Take Care.

Went lont on Platinum ( Blond ) last night! You should see the smile I am wearing now!

Would you rather the Dow be UP by 1.4% and gold the same old ( yawn ) same old? I am glad to see the ACTION. I am down over ten grand in the metals and have gotten used to it. But that doesn't mean I LIKE it! The Dow boys have had it too good for too long. Let THEM worry for awhile. Ups and downs in the metals are a way of life. It USED to be that way with the Dow. Yeah, I'm GLAD to see the Dow down. I hope it goes to 2500. I don't believe gold will match the Dow, percentagewise, on the downside. It's an uncertain world .

For Glenn

Are you smiling ??

New York-June 11-FWN--GOLD FUTURES ARE SHARPLY LOWER
due to strength in the U.S. dollar, floor sources said.
August gold has fallen as far as $288.70.
"Trade selling is coming in here, and you're hitting
stops the whole way down," said one floor source. "It's the
dollar. The dollar is just screaming and the yen is getting
killed."
Dollar/yen has skyrocketed to its highest level in more
than seven years, topping out at Y143.66, after comments
today from U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.
Rubin said that while the United States shares Japan's
concern about a weak yen, the solution is economic strength
in Japan.
Currency analysts noted this is similar to remarks he
made several weeks ago, in which he went one step further by
saying that Japanese policy--rather than intervention--is
the key to recovery by the yen.

EW YORK
SPOT PRICE
June 11, 1998
12:13PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents

.
Bid
Ask
Change
Low
High
GOLD


288.50
289.00
-4.50
-1.54%
288.50
292.50

SILVER


5.20
5.23
-0.16
-2.99%
5.20
5.32

PLATINUM


352.20
354.75
-6.10
-1.70%
350.50
356.00

PALLADIUM


263.00
273.00
-15.00
-5.40%
263.00
281.00

Keep on smilin' you know, before they made laudenum and cocaine illegal some went real long on them and really cleaned up. I don't know if you can do that these days, but you would certainly clean up with viagra if they ever made it illegal and a guy was sittin an a mountain of it.

Instead of HM puts, sell S&P Spiders--Puts expire. Spiders never expire-- unless the S&P does! I'm short spiders at 112. Looking for 100--then 90--then 80--then 70--you get the idea! Doomsday clock now moved 5 minutes closer to midnight from 14 to 9 minutes before nuclear annihilation--just another sign of the times. As Dylan once said--"they are a changin'!"

Beautiful thought...

Prometheus--My thanks. {:- ) Enjoyed your wonderfully pointed IMF post to Studio.R yesterday! {:- )
bbl

You run a Mac?

HighRise

Dylan STILL says "It ain't dark yet, but it's gettin' there"

Yeah and when yu pan a little gold that's good advice to follow also.

"gold is what it is and needs no introduction" ...I love that! Have written it down for future use. Glad to see you so upbeat these days--you SHOULD be.

jim c should read my 22:03 ( yesterday ) for many thoughts and numbers on the Euro and gold.

We are of like mind...my path has led me to that same doorstep.

In a word, "YES!" Since Japanese banks are allowed to use the stocks of Japanese corporations as a reserve asset. When the reserve asset ( Japanese stocks ) of Japanese banks are devalued below a certain level ( 15,000 on the Nikkei ) , the banks are effectively bankrupt ( liabilities, loan losses exceed reserves ) . At least that's the way I've always understood it!

Aurophile ( Stagflation ) ID#256326:

is a clever term about which I saw someone post today, assuring us that it was going to happen soon. But actually stagflation occurs late in the up cycle of the long economic wave AFTER inflation has gone on long

enough to impinge upon economic activity. By all indications we haven't even started up the slippery slope of inflation yet.

farfel ( @AUROPHILE...I am violating my new "no post" rule one last time... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

...because I cannot bear it when Economics undergraduates like yourself post sheer nonsense on this forum.

...STAGFLATION is simply, in layman's terms, rising interest rates in the face of declining growth. It is an

anomalous, paradoxical economic condition that can arise at any stage of an economic cycle ( except where

an economy is already reduced to rubble ...certainly not the condition of America's current boisterous

economy ( with all its hidden, potential, sky-hig

STAGFLATION is simply, in layman's terms, rising interest rates in the face of declining growth. It is an
anomalous, paradoxical economic condition that can arise at any stage of an economic cycle ( except where
an economy is already reduced to rubble ...certainly not the condition of America's current boisterous
economy ( with all its hidden, potential, sky-high, aggregate purchasing power "temporarily sleeping" in the
form of vastly over-appreciated stock market values ) ) .

Please tell us ONE MORE TIME where you learned econo-babble, kind sir.

I run Windows, ICQ never bobbled for me. ICQ packed up aurator's Mac. ICQ works on Squirrel's Mac in a limited way.

FWIW Linear longterm cycle turning point for INDU June 9 and gist for the mill Saturn entering Taurus.Astro lore has it Saturn very unfriendly
to exuberant markets and banks when it resides in Taurus : ) .
Projected turning point 2nd week of October.
Short term turning point for gold Friday or next week Monday for
another flash in the pan until June 23 -25.Ideal time to go short again
probably during that time until the end of July.Have a good day and
happy trading.

JTF:Transfer of wealth to North America is accelerating the last
couple of years from Germany.It has been told to me before
being hot money.This time it is scared money that seeks refuge from
bureaucratic foulups and chaotic conditions that might ensue from Y2K and the duplication of accounting methods.
With that, the Euro might be just hot air and become the signpost for
people to stash their savings into goldcoins.

Canada dollar hits new low against U.S. dollar

TORONTO, June 11 ( Reuters ) - The Canadian dollar on Thursday weakened to a new low against the U.S. dollar of around C$1.4700 ( US$0.6803 ) , traders said.

The decline follows a surge in the U.S. dollar against major currencies as safe-haven capital flows from Asia into the United States.

There were no immediate signs of intervention by the Bank of Canada, traders said.

The previous intraday trading low of C$1.4686 ( US$0.6809 ) was set on January 29 this year, when the currency faced strong speculative selling.

I run a Mac, and have not tried to access - how do I go about it?

I will give it a try later, when I return.

Thanks,

HighRise

information edge {:- ) ) They is really no doubt remaining: the threads
all lead one there; the legal search leads one there; common sense
confirms!

All---And a bit of trivia
Europa has selected a flag, which you've no doubt seen,
And an anthem-an interesting choice
"The Ode to Joy" from Beethoven's ninth

Boy! What action! Hang on, we've just got about 30 minutes to go.

Another side effect ( I don't recall whether you mentioned it in your earlier post of last evening ) is that by contributing such a small percentage of gold to the currency reserves of the EC, the member CB's in effect discredit gold ( to some extent ) and protect the status of their current gold loans. All this will be well and good for them unless the credit system blows up, and gold takes off anyway. I this happens they may have to call their gold loans, and the borrowers will be forced to buy buy the gold in a rising market, or default on the loans. Either way they lose. We can always hope.

Pards, on a day like this maybe there's something useful here. It's circulating in email. This how I received it-

"Don't Squat With Yer Spurs On,
A Cowboy's Guide To Life"
by Texas Bix Bender
--------------------------------------------------
Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day.

There's two theories to arguin' with a woman. Neither one works.

Don't worry about bitin' off more than you can chew. Your mouth is probably a whole lot bigger'n you think.

If you get to thinkin' you're a person of some influence, try orderin' somebody else's dog around.

Never ask a man the size of his spread.

After eating an entire bull, a mountain lion felt so good he started
roaring. He kept it up until a hunter came along and shot him. The moral: when you're full of bull, keep your mouth shut.

If you find yourself in a hole the first thing to do is stop diggin'.

Never smack a man who's chewin' tobacco.

It don't take a genius to spot a goat in a flock of sheep.

Never ask a barber if he thinks you need a haircut.

Never follow good whiskey with water, unless you're out of good
whiskey.

Good judgement comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad
judgment.

Always drink upstream from the herd.

Never drop your gun to hug a grizzly.

If you're ridin' ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it's still there.

When you give a lesson in meanness to a critter or a person, don't be
suprised if they learn their lesson.

When you're throwin' your weight around, be ready to have it thrown around by somebody else.

Lettin' the cat outta the bag is a whole lot easier 'n puttin' it back.

Always take a good look at what you're about to eat. It's not so important to know what it is, but it's critical to know what it was.

The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket.

A smart ass just don't fit in a saddle.

Never miss a good chance to shut up.

oops!

buy buy = buy back

Thank you for the cycle updates. 8 June was a fibo projection date based upon the 12 January to 25 March segment in the DOW. There are numerous fixed and variable cycles due on 18 June.

ICQ screwed up aurator's Mac, he suffered a ton of headaches and finally gave up. If you really want to try it consult Squirrel first.

Today is not even close to a panic sell, just a taste of what may be if things unravell in three days instead of 3 months. Anyway we can all see that gold has none of its old charisma in troubled times, I hope it recaptures it. Creepy CB overhang puts this into doubt at least until the US$ tanks, no real signs of that happening any time soon.
The strong holders of gold in Euro CBs must be just thrilled with their weaker neighbors 10 - 15% gold reserve 'compromise'.
I am not convinced we will get a united Euro market when all is said and done, Kosovo and NATO/Russia tensions can undermine the eurocrats 'good intensions'. I my rambling opinion, err thats IMRO

Frank Mersch gets six-month mutual fund trading ban

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Frank Mersch, the financial manager who made Altamira into one of Canada's most successful funds, has been banned from running a mutual fund company for six months.

The penalty is one of the harshest trading bans imposed on a major stock industry figure.

"deliberately misleading" investigators -- The junior miner was the predecessor to Diamond Fields Resources Inc., the Vancouver company that discovered the giant nickel deposit at Voisey's Bay, Labrador.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Mersch-Trading-Ban.html

Thursday June 11, 11:55 am Eastern Time
US dollar surges to 143.55 yen on Rubin's comments

NEW YORK, June 11 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. dollar surged anew against the Japanese yen at midday Thursday, hitting a session high of 143.55 yen as Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said the answer to the yen's weakness lies with the state of Japan's economy.

Rubin's statement, seen as ruling out the possibility of concerted foreign exchange intervention to support the yen, sent the Japanese currency tumbling, traders said.

Dollar/yen began trading in New York at 141.65, after topping the 142-yen level overnight for the first time since June 1991.

Dollar/yen soon resumed its climb to hit 143.55 -- its highest level since September 1990 -- at about 1125 EDT/1525 GMT, and edged up further to touch a session high of 143.65 at about 1140 EDT/1540 GMT.

Rubin told the Senate Finance Committee Japan's economic situation is ``exceedingly troubling,'' and that Japan must deal with ``the problems and issues in the financial sector and the banks.''

Rubin acknowledged these were ``very difficult issues'' raising great concern in the United States. But the U.S. Secretary Treasury stressed the answers to the Japanese economy's and yen's weakness ``lie with Japan in terms of policy measures that need to be taken.''

Rubin further stressed that foreign exchange intervention is a temporary tool and not a fundamental solution to currency weakness since currency levels follow economic fundamentals.

Traders said this was a strong indication the United States would not intervene to curb the dollar's rise versus the yen.

Rubin also reiterated the U.S. dollar should not be used as a tool in trade policy.

Neither had the Asian countries until their currencies collapsed.

You just might get Harmony @$3.25.Yes?

Tom

Lawyer outlives 59-year case
ANKARA ( Reuters ) -- His clients and the defendants are long dead but Turkish lawyer Mustafa Yildirim welcomed victory Thursday in a land ownership case first filed in 1939.

The court of appeals recently ruled in favor of Yildirim's late clients in a tortuous dispute between two villages in western Turkey over rights to a small stretch of land.

"I was fated to finish this case," he told Anatolian news agency. "Fifteen judges have worked on this file and six of my colleagues involved in it have died.

Additionally, not one of the villagers who were plaintiffs or defendants is still alive."

The case has bounced back and forth between two local courts and the national appeals court, where it has been heard three times in the past 59 years. Yildirim, then a novice lawyer, took up the dispute on behalf of residents of Hacialiler in 1963.

WetGold...........post the serial number from the back of the headstock...I'll date it...I have all the books. Keep it tuned up, a Gibson neck won't warp with proper string tension...IMHO.

BillinOregon....Does Johnnie still live in Colorado Springs? I am told I own his old Byrdland! ( he made a "Johnnie" string saddle for it which bears his initials carved into the ebony on the underneath ) . The trade was handled by a reputable broker. Mr. Smith's specific instrument design, whether it be a Guild ( first ) , Gibson ( second ) or his Heritage ( last ) namesake, is superior to all....X-bracing, special neck to body fixation, body dimensions, floating p.u., etc....ABSOLUTELY THE BEST SOUNDING! ( including DeAngelicos, Strombergs, and EPI's )

found it and done it now what????

Are you referring to post-devaluation price inflation?

The falling yen has to be stopped with economic strength from the Japanese economy; according to Robert Rubin. Wow is this guy ever smart?
No kidding economic strength in Japan would cure the falling yen. The one positive is that with a stong economy in Japan, the demand for commodities will increase and the price of Gold will surely soar. So get in while the gettin is good or you will miss the parade.

right!

Schoen.

They have recession and high inflation.

Agreed that this could be the start of a big correction for US equities.
They are just about the only market in the world not reacting to the NEW WORLD ORDER turmoil.
Stocks are also a commodity of sorts, to be bought and sold.
Ask yourselves, today, who actually holds stocks to collect the dividends?
They may be lots of denial yet, but the path of least resistance is Down.

Meanwhile, Gold has been sabotaged by the stinking Freemasonry headquartered in central Europe.
They will end up spending the savings of the people, to support the next greatest failed venture...... The Euro....

Silverbaron...razorsharp thought! Buying time ahead of a price explosion is important becuse they definately want to regain control of the gold that has been lent. But then again, depending upon your willingness to beleive high levels of manipulation, perhaps much of the gold was lent on paper and still physically resides in the CB vaults. They still control it although under another's paper ownership. When push comes to shove, do you think possession will serve them well? Dollars will pay dearly to change the name on the paper title to return ownership of the gold back to the bank that already holds the gold!

I hope I made this clear, though I fear that I did not.

Scared money from Europe to US. It appears you have this right. The lack of coordination with taxes and budgets among them is enough. Smart money can see thru the hype of the euro and it looks bad. I hope you come up with further comments on this. Especially the inherent problems in the US$. Many thanx, Charlie

The Korean collected gold,

The Australian CB sold gold

The Canadian CB sold gold,

The Argentinian CB sold gold,

.... All this gold found its way to Europe...

.....Oh, I guess it was a simple coincidence....

Thanx, we discussed last month June would become an interesting and
volatile month of all the cyclical crosscurrents emenating in that
time span June 2 to 25 .I expect in the June 15 week a rally
in gold till June 25.July 30 is going for me the pivotal week for gold.
I expect it to bottom in the 256 range and I will buy with both hands.: )

Here's a little more info. Ted Arnold doesn't know why, but we have a
theory, don't we? As soon as this dumoing by the funds and frenzy of the
shorts gets done, I suspect the Swiss will be back. They're running out
of time....

Ted Arnold, first vice president at Merrill Lynch in London, told Reuters that one of the Swiss bullion banks had been a big buyer.

``There's been some very, very strong buying interest from one of the Swiss banks. We calculated that they bought anything between 50 and 100 tonnes in the last few days although we cannot work out what on Earth it's for,'' he said.

Has your son called a bottom yet? Anywhere?

( Damn...he's good...! )

GOLD DOWN $6.50US

On the head --- it only says "MADE IN USA" ..... on the 'gold seal' which is on the top wing of the V it states "Limited Edition Model - Gibson - 205" ,,,, the seal is metallic and showing signs of aging ....

TIA

Do the CB's still hold the gold that they have loaned out?

There are a huge number of people who would dearly love to know the real answer to that question. As I recall from reading Ted Butler's work, and some of Veneroso's stuff, the answer is probably no - they don't still hold it, or at least a large fraction of it.

I draw an analogy to the similar situation in silver loans - it most certainly has been SOLD by the borrower, and is GONE. I suspect that much the same has happened to a good part of the loaned gold. But nobody outside of a very closed society really knows for sure, do they?

and AG are not doing anything to stop the yen from falling, is they
have let the situation get out of control and they aren"t willing to admit it!!

The EU is a dream and a process which may take many more decades. It has worked best for immigration and tariffs. It is an open question whether the EMU will work for Portugal, Nederland, and Italy equally well. Given the history of the ciurrency trading bands one doubts it. Politicians will still be elected locally. When Central Bank policy causes local ( national ) problems is when we will gain some insight into this question.
Most working Europeans whom I met on a recent 3 week trip think it is a farce. Individual counties are finding ways to charge fees and sell licenses to circumvent EU policy on transportation and other important issues. It is very much the same as early federal/state wars in this country, and the Feds have not won yet over there.

They will be talking about Gold on CNBC very soon!

Thanks,

The only problem I have had is with MSFTNBC.
Gates has the site totally rigged against Netscape and the Mac.

AAPL is up today, I have been waiting for a down market day so I could buy some - it doesn't want to go down now.

I may will check with Squirrel later.

Thanks again, Later,

HighRise

Subj: stock market plunge and related manipulation of precious metals

Date: 98-06-11 13:24:32 EDT

From: rogerv@sttl.uswest.net ( Roger Voss )

At this moment the Dow is off again by a 116:

Thu Jun 11 1:14PM Eastern U.S. Time -- U.S. Markets close in 2 hours 46 minutes

Dow 8855.61 -116.09 ( -1.29% )

Nasdaq 1754.46 -18.79 ( -1.06% )

S&P 500 1098.53 -13.75 ( -1.24% )

Now what is hilarious is to watch precious metal prices when US equity markets go

into a nose dive. Just like the first phase of sell offs a couple of weeks ago,

precious metals, such as gold, are dropping as well.

Now think about this: precious metal prices dropping when all the stock markets

experience significant and serious plunges? Does this make sense? Do people say to

themselves: well my stock portfolio is precipitously dropping in value so by golly

I'm going to dump all my precious metal holdings as well?

No, not likely. When stock and bond markets plunge, investors traditionally turn to

tangible wealth in order to preserve their wealth from loss. So in times like these

prices of precious metals should be going up.

I think its pretty obvious that when the markets are experiencing panics these days

that there is a considerable institutional level of dumping of precious metals on to

those markets in order to artificially make prices drop and discourage panicked

investors from seeking out precious metals in which to park their wealth. They are

being steered or lead with a ring through their noses from stocks over to bonds, but

kept well away from precious metals.

Before the first wave of panics set in a couple of weeks ago, gold was up around

$310, silver was over $6, and platinum was over $400. Right when the markets first

experienced their initial big 1% or more drops, prices across the board for these

key precious metals all fell in unison. The synchronization of this timing of two

antithetical markets stood out like a neon sign advertising an incredible

manipulation of precious metal markets going on behind the scenes -- with no public

commentary, of course, by business/financial press, etc.

For the interim of market calm that was established, up until yesterday when the

slide in stocks began again in earnest, gold had stabilized around $293. Today it

has precipitously dropped again and is currently down to around $287 -- in lock step

with the current 1.18% contraction in the DOW! The first wave of stock market plunge

had hammered gold down from $310 territory into the high $280s as well. Then gold

recovered to the low $290s and was making modest steady gains back up until now.

Obviously the average guy that holds some precious metals is not doing any kind of

panic level dumping of precious metals in order to bring about these precious metal

price drops that are perfectly synchronized with major stock market plunges.

Obviously only large institutional class holders of precious metals could effect a

sufficient rapid large scale dumping that could orchestrate this kind of effect.

What they are doing is attempting to steer panicked stock market investors into

their bonds. Dump equity for debt instruments. This is their tactical manipulation.

It works as a tactical maneuver -- but will it prove in the long term

counterproductive to their overall strategy?

I find it absolutely hilarious and laugh in their collective faces. They are

obviously resorting to making very desperate moves here in order to try to keep

their house of cards propped up. All they are doing is setting up precious metals to

be an irresistible buy that will represent guaranteed upside potential. As they push

precious metal prices so artificially low they are at the very same time creating

the future market dynamic of a definite guaranteed upside potential to these types

of investments. Eventually savvy folk are going to realize the tremendous bonanza

that has been unintentionally created here by these large scale manipulators and

will jump on the opportunity for guaranteed returns on investment coupled to

security versus the extreme downward volatility going on elsewhere. It is kind of

like compressing a spring which then is poised with potential energy to bounce back

with zest. As anxiety continues to build in stocks and eventually even in bond

markets, the potential energy stored in artificially depressed precious metals will

become amplified. At some point on down the road it is going to prove irresistible.

The manipulators have to hope that they can bring all this unrest in stock markets

to a closure of stability. They will not be able to keep this kind of manipulation

of precious metal markets going on indefinitely. But with the on-going Asian

meltdown and Y2K around the corner there doesn't look like any good news anytime

soon. Alan Greenspan's rosy comments on the "great economy" is going to be falling

on deaf ears as investors everywhere remain exceedingly anxious. Indeed, I think Mr.

Greenspan heard the equity markets' reply to his comments this morning as greater

than 1% plunges got underway.

All, FYI
I think they are going to have a Gold report next.
Ron Insana ( sp ) He is pretty good.

HighRise

To all:

The last comment I made was that if gold takes out Monday's low, then we have another leg down. This has happened as of now. The next support level I see for gold is $281.50.
It has been a strange week for gold in rallying to $300 and then falling this far, this fast. The XAU stocks have been straight down since noon Tuesday.
The Vancouver Stock Exchange Index has now fallen below last year's low. The VSE is down 71 points this year, nearly 23%.
Crystallex is down C$1.50 to C$375 or so. We heard yesterday was the last day to exercise warrants. It looks to me like something more is in the wind. Perhaps many are just getting tired of waiting and realizing that even if KRY were to win, with this market it would be a pyhric victory.

It's ugly out there.

The Preacher

Here's a picture of my model:

We have a problem! The Gold Chart is a disaster. 386 +/- and falling

NEW YORK
SPOT PRICE
June 11, 1998
1:35PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents

Bid
Ask
Change
Low
High

GOLD

287.00
287.70
-6.00
-2.05%
286.50
292.50

SILVER
5.16
5.19
-0.20
-3.73%
5.16
5.32

PLATINUM
352.20
354.75
-6.10
-1.70%
350.50
356.00

PALLADIUM
265.00
275.00
-13.00
-4.68%
263.00
281.00

Excellent analysis you are to be commennded on your insight and thoughtfulness. I new there was some kind of manipulation of the Gold market. Thank you for your version of what is going on I tend to agree.

Ouch Ouch Ouch Ouch

Not a double post, I just left out one ouch.

and obtaining physicals ,,,,, if U are not on the phone today getting physical ---- YOU'RE ONLY TALK ----- no need to respond ,,,, you know who you are and you need to examine your own posture and defend a false one ,,,,,,,, BUY TODAY ,,,,,,,,,,,,, BUY TODAY ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, BUY TODAY ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ******************* TODAY ***************8
,

After reding your's, it's a lot worse than I thought. Many thanx for this. I wouldn't put my boy's monopoly money in the damn thing. I can't imagine anyone being sucked in, especially the CB,s. What a scam. You are going to save intelligent people a lot of money. Cheers, Charlie

My thinking is that pre Bre-X, it was fashionable for John Q. Public and institutional funds to put a small portion of their money into junior golds with the idea that they migh be lottery winner. Post Bre-X, it became unfashionable as it made sounder business sense to go to Vegas where you at least knew the odds. Post Bre-X coincided with the dismal gold market in general. I belive that everyone is just bored with the stuff. They are used to making double digets and gold has been registering double diget losses. The Gold maket is, relatively speaking, vey small, and currently the heard seems to be looking elsewhere with the institutions cleaning them out of their portfolios to avoid embarrassment. Face it, the last run up in gold stocks was an abberation which would not have occured without the lies and half truths bantered about by our Canadian neighbors. The stocks are incurring public wrath and as for the POG itself, gold seems to be out of favor. Just why, I don't know. It fluctuates.

The gold market is going to be fine. There is not a conspiracy out there to get the gold bugs. They are just shaking the tree and that can be scary.There is some real bad things happening in the markets anda lot of wealth is being burned. At the same time, you cannot crash the market to below average production cost for a very long time without throwing supply and demand way out of wack. The gold will recover.

Thank you, but I cannot take credit for the thoughts of ROGER VOSS.

Need links to HUI and XAU.....Just changed computers and need to get the links and bookmark them on new machine....THANKS !!!!

Here's XAU.

http://www.phlx.com/products/xau.html

280 before 300 is looking pretty good. Better dust off the 'wink museum.

http://europe.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9806/11/kosovo.early/index.html

The possibilites of a wider Balkan war, are very real. ( just my opinion )

What If margin calls went out and the available cash was was in PM cash a/c,s? A thought

If you are following these trades you should be short Aug. Gold from 300, take profits if spot hits 280 or if your paper profit drops by 50% from your entry price to any intraday low. July Silver long from 5.10 or lower added to position today under 5.20, use a 5.09 stop on everything.

Just hold your position pal and don"t get rattled. We are in this together, we have used intelligence, hard work and experience to come to our beliefs on gold. If things go against us for a while, its not because of anything we did wrong. I don't know about you, but I certainly have been thinking we hit bottom in January. If I am wrong, it certainly won't be the first time. To me, when I put the puzzle together and it says its time to buy, that is what I do. I don't mind sitting around wearing a dunce cap with Warren Buffet.

NJ...Thanks, but what I was hoping for was somebody to post a link to a quote service that had XAU/HUI symbols already entered. Then I bookmark it and have an easy quick way to check all.

The PBS "Frontline" documentary on the 'Clinton clan', is worth
not being missed."
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/

DOWn -125 and plunging!

On Yahoo symbols are ^xau and ^hui. You can make your own bookmarks by adding the symbols of stocks to each index.

Dow down -130. Would hate to be long going into the weekend. Tomorrow will REALLY BE BLOODY! And Monday?......well, let's take it one day at a time!

Where are u? I got this damn daisey looking for you

"A hard rain's a gonna fall"........Dylan

My husband and I are closing on a house next week; I'm a nervous wreck that Rubin's slight to the Japanese will bring Hashimoto's June '97 comments to mind ( sell bonds and buy gold ) ; please, please let the paper system hold together long enough for us all to get our lives set up for the NEXT "paradigm". And Rubin looked exhausted -- probably up all night watching those Asian markets.

Don't go long on viagra yet old buddy, I see the NY times has come out against UN and the Drug War. Jezzzzz what of they leagalized drugs and dem rich okd drug lords could buy 400, 600 or even 800 BILLION in AU?

Question: When isn't a bond market rally to all-time new highs bullish for equities? Answer: When the stock market is overvalued, people are scared and the PPT is telling the world it can't or won't do anything about it!

This huge drop as predicted by many here is largely due to majors like ABX which has fallen close to 17 and still down. NEM and HM are already bouncing upward. Smaller issues like BMG and HL are only slightly down. Many of the SA smaller issues are holding well, even that old bowwow Rangy is unchanged.

http://quote.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_5&d=v1&o=t

If it fails to work, the symbols may be stored in my cookies, in which case you will need to add them.

^XAU 2:31PM 68.12 -4.04 -5.60% N/A Chart

ASL 2:06PM 7 11/16 -7/8 -10.22% 350,200 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

ABX 2:11PM 17 1/8 -1 1/16 -5.84% 1,449,500 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

BMG 2:04PM 5 3/16 -1/8 -2.35% 483,200 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

CDE 2:00PM 8 3/16 -9/16 -6.43% 114,900 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

FCX 2:09PM 16 7/16 -5/16 -1.87% 471,500 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

GGO 2:06PM 16 1/2 -1 -5.71% 70,800 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

HL 2:10PM 5 1/16 -1/8 -2.41% 175,800 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

HM 2:10PM 9 13/16 -3/8 -3.68% 709,700 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

NEM 2:11PM 22 15/16 -1 7/8 -7.56% 1,821,400 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

PDG 2:11PM 11 7/16 -9/16 -4.69% 1,089,000 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

^HUI 2:31PM 91.82 -4.41 -4.58% N/A Chart

AEM 1:14PM 5 11/16 -1/4 -4.21% 44,800 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

ASA 2:03PM 20 1/8 -1/2 -2.42% 64,300 Chart, Profile, Msgs

BMG 2:04PM 5 3/16 -1/8 -2.35% 483,200 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

CDE 2:00PM 8 3/16 -9/16 -6.43% 114,900 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

ECO 2:09PM 2 7/16 -3/16 -7.14% 423,100 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

FCX 2:09PM 16 7/16 -5/16 -1.87% 471,500 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

GLG 1:24PM 3 3/4 -3/16 -4.76% 23,700 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

HL 2:10PM 5 1/16 -1/8 -2.41% 175,800 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

HM 2:10PM 9 13/16 -3/8 -3.68% 709,700 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

KGC 2:03PM 3 5/8 -1/8 -3.33% 90,400 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

NEM 2:11PM 22 15/16 -1 7/8 -7.56% 1,821,400 Chart, News, SEC Filings, Profile, Research, Msgs

WMC 1:29PM 11 1/16 -3/16 -1.67% 1,900 Chart, News, Profile, Research, Msgs

PULLLEEZE don't go smilin around that Tom Constantine head of the DEA, he gets to thinkin your FEELIN GOOD when you take that Viagra and he'll be shutting you off, as he told John Stossel "if people are taking stuff to feel good, then I think that's DANGEROUS..........." sO DON'T GO BEING NO "DANGEROUS SOUL" AROUND OL' TOM.

XOI breaking down fast! DOWN -10.20! SOX now at a new 52 week low!

to buy 'em." Not sure who said this, but believe it to be an old stocktrader somewhere. Remember reading it somewhere. Helps to keep things in perspective.

Nice XAU page. Thanks.

Thought you might also be interested in S&P Gold/Silver Index

http://www.quote.com/iwatch/table?group=qcgldslv

Canadian markets hit by Asia woes, commodities

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - Canadian equity markets racked up another day of steep losses and the country's currency hit record lows Thursday as the Asian flu and ailing commodity prices gave investors the chills.

None of the TSE's 14 sub-sectors was immune to the selling but the gold and silver group was the biggest loser, falling more than five percent by early afternoon.

In contrast to the battered currency and stock markets, Canadian bonds continued to firm to record highs, profiting along with U.S. treasuries from safe-haven buying.

Weak commodity prices have bedeviled the resource-heavy Toronto stock market in recent weeks and analysts said they see little to lift prices on the horizon.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/CANADA-MARKETS.html

Yen falls below 143 yen-dollar mark


LONDON, June 11 ( AFP ) - The Japanese yen fell Thursday below the
143 yen-dollar point in London, trading at 143.54 yen to the dollar,
as traders increasingly discounted the chances of intervention to
prop up the currency.
The yen had traded at 141.61 yen late Wednesday in London.
The yen, hit on markets by the Japanese economy's weakness, was
under further attack Thursday following US Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin's comments indicating that concerted international
intervention is unlikely.
Rubin said that Washington was "greatly concerned with the
weakness of the yen," but that the "ultimate answer" to the
curreny's weakness lay in Japan.


But consider this Japs sit back and wait until the greedy speculators have had their fill then in they go and DUMP bonds...Yen starts going up again and the specs climb on board for the return trip...final result Japs ahve got a really good rate to liquidate their bonds at...and how much cheap gold will they buy then?....these guys are not stupid...this we know.

1971........Blue Book ( latest version ) : $2570. exc. condition.......

With long bond at 5.65 the FED has little choice but to LOWER the discount rate to avert the dreaded inversion which now is at the door!

Because this is an educational forum on issues related to PMs, there are some other things that I'd like to add to your discussion.

DIRECT TAXES are prescribed by the Constitution and fall into only two acceptable forms. ( The 16th Amendment helps to clarify this by addressing legal challenges at the turn of the Century - 1900s ) . The 2 acceptable forms of Direct tax are:
1. Capitation Tax ( a "head" tax for the right to live in that state )
2. Property Tax ( parallel to the common tax form imposed by most states )


CAPITATION TAX
As you rightfully said about the Capitation tax, it is APPORTIONED by the Federal government at a fixed rate to every state. Then each state assesses the tax EVENLY to every citizen within that state. And as you correctly said, the drafters of the Constitution made this a purposely cumbersome process in order to dissuade its use. Because, as each state would make its calculations and assess the tax, it would require a lengthy and openly notorious action on the part of government to assess and collect the tax.

Another important point to make: The apportionment would be based upon the Federal BUDGET that was drafted by the Congress. If the Congress ( and NOT THE PRESIDENT - as most people mistakenly think ) adopted a budget that was for $150 billion, then that amount would be divided by the number of states - 50. And each state would have a tax liability of $30 billion. Then the amount would be apportioned according to the number of people. So, let's make a few comparisons:
- New York: 18 million people = $ 1,666.67 per person
- California: 33 million people = $ 909.09 per person
- No Dakota: 640,000 people = $ 46,875.00 per person
- Vermont: 590,000 people = $ 50,847.46 per person
- Wyoming: 480,000 people = $ 62,500.00 per person ----- WOW! What a liability !!!

Can you see ANY possible way that the good people of Wyoming and the other less populated states would ever agree to that kind of taxation? Abosuletly NOT!!! And that is another reason why the founding fathers set up the Direct tax the way they did. Because, as each budget was developed and the requirement for a PAY AS YOU GO system was followed ( which we do not have now ) , the populace would pay attention to the machinations of Congressional activities. Then, in keeping with another Constitutional concept, States and state rights would be reflected within the process. Because states ( and that includes Senators ) would not allow the Feds to overtax. But now, we have a system that has obviated all of these checks and balances. The result is a boiling of the frog ( taxpayer ) as liability grows and literally destroys the producers as they pay incrementally more for being productive.


PROPERTY TAX
Besides the Capitation option, there is the Property tax option. In a similar manner, the budget liability for a given budgetary cycle - let's again say $150 billion - would again be apportioned to each state. Then as the $30 billion for a particular state was apportioned, those with the greatest holdings of property would pay the greatest amounts. So, the likes of Ted Turner ( who holds 100s of thousands of acres in Nebraska ) would pay a much higher proportion of taxes ( potentially $ millions ) , than some poor widow who has only a few acres in a backwater town ( who might only pay a few $ ) .

But another point to be made. States like Rhode Island and Vermont ( who don't have a lot of acerage ) would pay a much higher proportional amount in taxes than those from Montana or Wyoming. So, if the tax liability for property in Wyoming might be $5 per acre, it is feasible for a similar liability to be 150 times greater ( or more ) in Rhode Island. This would result in the same reaction as the Capitation tax - a literal revolt from the populace of those with small land masses - IF, the budget and resultant taxes were too high.

Another factor to take into account is the amount of FEDERAL LAND HOLDINGS in each state. Because the Feds do not pay taxes for their land holdings, the remainder of the populace would pay a much higher amount of tax per acre based upon the number of Fed acres taken offline. That would also tend to create a citizen revolt as the populace looked at the number of Federal acres pushed up the tax liability of landholders. State like Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, California, etc would not be so happy to have National Forests or Military reserves within their boundaries. OR - if the nation wanted these ammenities, they would not be quite so favorable about a direct tax on property.


DIRECT TAXES -- A special note: Under a direct tax, the Feds would make an assessment and present the BILL to you. They would send a bill to your home and indicate your specific liability for either: each person in your household, or for the property you own ( most likely for each acre of land ) . You would then pay the Bill at one time ( not incrementally, like we now do through the payroll deduction method ) . Think of the impact as each person had to pay the full amount at one time. Instead of being bled-dry over a 12 month period ( or 24-26 payperiod method ) , you would write a single check for several $ thousand and submit it with your statement. Do you think that someone with a tax liability of $20,000 ( imposed at one time ) would be so quick to accept such a billing? No way!!! This person would keenly watch the development of the Congressional Budget - and the Congress would be aware of this. Clearly, they wouldn't be so quick to pass a Budget that wouldn't meet the scrutiny of those who paid for the cost - under the pay-as-you-go system that is truely Constitutional. AND we would NOT SEE THE BURGEONING FEDERAL GOVT THAT REDISTRIBUTES WEALTH AND CONTINUES TO ACCRUE MASSIVE DEBT !!!! There would be no $5.5 trillion debt - GUARANTEED!!


STATE RIGHTS - and our loss from NOT imposing Direct Taxes - the natural counterbalance that the Constitution provides from burdensome Federal action / taxation.

Article 1 Section 3 states the following: "The Senate....shall be composed of two Senators from each State, [chosen by the Legislature thereof]..."

As most people now know, the 17th amendment changed this provision from "chosen by the Legislature therefore" into a popular election process. As a result, we have further degraded the Constitution and the balance of powers with this change. We have now turned the US Senate into a populaced body that is admittedly higher powered than the House, but is subjected to the same kind of politics of persuasion and enforcement as the House - the "peoples" house. The result is the continued expansion of the Federal invasion into all aspects of our lives - as States and their rights are trampled like so much inconsequential second string requirements - while the Federal role continues to grow in domination and has become the much preferred role of government by those who want a paternalistic control over everyone's lives. This shift caused the ability for the Feds to impose UNFUNDED MANDATES. If we still had the proper balance, then the probability of these kinds of abuses would be extremely remote.

The law-abiding ( and non-welfare type ) citizens would be much better served if we repealed the 17th amendment and reinstated the Constitution as it was originally ratified. ( There are also other repeals that would make similar improvements to the check and balance provisions originally instituted, such as that of the 12th amendment. But that's a discussion for a later time. )


INDIRECT TAXES
Indirect taxes are imposed upon ACTIVITIES and not property or people. So, if you pay an indirect tax on alcohol, you are NOT paying a tax on the alcohol ( the item ) - you are paying a tax on the activity of DISTILLING the alcohol. Therefore, any kind of tax ( other than a Capitation or Property Tax ) HAS to be applied to an activity.

---------------------------
Wetgold - You correctly stated that "the nature of Indirect taxes differ considerably with Direct taxes... Direct taxes cannot be avoided if legally instituted." That is because they are apportioned and imposed upon everyone within each specific state - NO "Ifs" or "Buts" about it. And correctly stated... "Indirect taxes can be avoided and/or reduced, based on the free and deliberate choice of the citizen". --- Great statement and one to be memorized by Kitcoites.

Based upon your statement and the nature of Indirect taxes, we get into the more complicated issue of INCOME TAXES - that is whether they are Direct or Indirect in nature. They are defined by the 16th amendment as being an Indirect tax. That is all the 16th amendment does - to define an Income Tax as an Indirect tax and make the clear distinction that an Income Tax is not a Direct tax and cannot be apportioned to each state or imposed based upon census or population. The Amendment was ratified so that an Income Tax could NOT be imposed as a Direct Tax - to be apportioned proportionally through each state - in order to control the disproportionate nature of such a tax for low populated states.

So, the next part of the discussion is - Is an Income Tax Constitutional, and if it is...then WHAT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT IS BEING TAXED under an INCOME TAX ? - as an Indirect tax. ------ This is where I will resume my discussion with my next post on the subject.


Until then, Kitcoites - learn what the Constitution says and how it impacts your life. As we have said earlier, the only true form of Constitutionally acceptable money is either gold and silver coin - NOTHING ELSE. We are currently functioning under a Non-Constitutional basis of currency with the FED issuing private money that they own and is punishable if you damage or destroy their property. So, buy and keep true money - that is Constitutional money - when you buy more gold and silver coin.

Loonie reaches all-time low, falls below 68 cents US

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Canadian dollar set an all-time trading low this morning as the beleaguered currency dropped below 68 cents US for the first time in its 140-year history.

Besides wounding patriotic pride, a 67-cent dollar can be a blessing for Canadian exporters, whose products suddenly become cheaper in the giant American market and also for customers abroad who buy nickel, oil, gold and other resources priced in U.S. dollars.

The payoff for exporters is particularly large because 80 per cent of Canada's exports head to the U.S.

For Americans, there's a sudden windfall when they come to Canada.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Dollar-Troubles.html

Brady's on CNBC, even called Hashimoto's name, saying Japanese must "fix" ( huh! ) their banks ( after all, under Brady's watch, we fixed ours! ) . I think Brady is either nervous or has Alzheimer's, because he quoted Willie Sutton ( "That's where the money is" ) twice. Wait till Clinton is over in China with the 500 people or whomever he takes along. Anyway, do you think the PPT is getting ready right about now to get the Dow back up off 8836? Ryutaro, are you selling those bonds yet?

DOW DOWN -150! LAST HOUR WILL BE DOWN HARD!

I'm in the process of doubling-down this week. Whaddaya make of that near wheels-up landing of the Nikkei today? I stayed up too late watching in morbid fascination. Need more coffee.
-EJ

Thank you. Carpe Diem.

I'm glad you are thoughtful, I've heard for some time that gold stocks would go down with the DOW but like a lotr of other things I couldn't figure out why. Your analysis is sufficiently cynical to cover the action, if your right, and you well could be, there is still the yellow brick road in the end.

Thanx

Cuba Libre! Thank you. ( I know latin tu! )

If stagflation is inflation during a period of declining growth then what is the term for the US economy over the past couple of years? Havn't we had declining inflation while growth was increasing ( at least until a recently ) ? Would it be Stimuflation?

Lifted from Jerry Favors comments, 6/10/98.


"The still more important the Gann weekly Chart turned up on Monday on the rally above 9057.50 intraday in the Dow. As long as the Dow holds above 8749 on a print basis and 8719 intraday on the next correction we would look for new highs. However, any decline below those levels from here on will be a serious negative signal and suggest a sharp breakdown could follow."

For swp1
He forecast 250 to 270 when gold was pushing 320..
that was the reason I started selling out .. still got
some rangy left and calls on deeps strinking 30 rand
expiry december 1999. ( I will keep the calls ) .
He also says 160 on the yen .. and dollar strong
against dmark. says 310/330 on plats which is why I
sold out over 400. He doesnt like silver either ..
He thinks sp500 gets another run up to 1180 /1200
mid july then take puts. He's played puts on the XAU
like a banjo.
He called 5.4 to 5.6 on the rand when it was 4.6.
He thinks the jse-gold Could see 695 optimistic ..
428 pessimistic. This is basis my buyback target on
harmony around $3.25. He trained for this activity on
the Australian racetracks since age of eight. Ice water
in veins .. very low pulse rate.
I think he might increase my allowance soon.
I wonder if I have the car tonight .. take Natasha
to the drive in.

Ron Insana made a cogent comment this morning. He said, "Basically we're refinancing our homes @ lower rates, thanks to the misfortune of the SEAsian Countries". Yeah, while millions of people have their subsistence level standard of living lowered, Americans are refinancing & buying new $30'000 4x4s. How long can this immoral, financial rape & pillage last?

As long as Hashimoto and company permit it! They hold the aces ( US treasuries ) !

...for my excessively emotional reaction to your comments on stagflation yesterday. Inappropriate as I know that you often post very interesting and erudite comments on this forum.

You know, it looks like deflation...it smells like deflation...it feels like deflation....

...but it MUST resolve itself in global stagflation.

Why? Because, in all likelihood, we will soon see one country after another RAISING interest rates ( from Canada to Australia to you name it ) ...despite rapidly slowing growth and falling commodity prices caused by domestic stock market disasters.

Interest rate rises will occur to stem capital outflows from all these various countries and preclude further currency disasters. Who would ever have believed that Australia and Canada would ever see such de facto devaluation in their currencies?

As one country after another embarks on a course to defend their respective currencies, then we will witness bond and equities markets collapsing hand in hand with an astounding outbreak of currency wars. The US dollar will not escape harm in such a global war.

Once the triumvirate of Almighty American Faith ( equities, bonds, and the US dollars ) are in simultaneous full throttle descent, then all hell will break loose.

With currencies whipsawing all over the place, then people will grow increasingly frustrated, desperate, and fearful...and rush toward the time-honored repository of value...precious metals and precious metals stocks. Paper will never be abandoned completely....there will be some stocks that will retain value and even rise significantly in the global currency crisis. Food processors, water distributors, etc., etc. Any stock bearing the name, "Gold or Silver," will likely rise in the long run.

On KITCO, we have a tendency to over-intellectualize the general populace's reaction to events. They are not quite so cerebral but react spontaneously on the basis of time-held beliefs. It would take far more than a stock market crash to erase the population's many years of paper-faith.

At least, of course, IMHO.

Thanks.

F*

NEW YORK, June 11 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrials briefly
fell to fresh session lows in afternoon trading on Thursday as
investors remained wary of Asia's financial turmoil and its
impact on U.S. corporate profits.

"Every day either Asia pounces on you or a bad earnings
forecast," said Frank Gretz, an analyst at Shields & Co.

"We know earnings are bad but stocks still go down, so I
don't think we are sold out on the downside yet."

At 1435 EDT/1835 GMT, the Dow was off 117 points at 8854
after hitting a new low for the session at 8840.

297. As Daffy Duck would say on the Titanic...."we're phucked!"

You've said more in one posting than I've said in a week ,,,, I now must keep my eYe on you ,,,,,

Thanks!

For SWP1
Oh his last email said .. "a
significant low will probably be in
place in August with a bounce and a retest
to follow. Therefore I cant see anything
great happening until October/November
unless we start getting dynamic wave
movement soon."
I know he likes plats a lot but it
must clear those low numbers first.

To borrow a phrase, this whole damn business is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Many here have said that deflation ( sure looks that way with bond yields, the stock market, crude oil, and commodities in general falling on their @$$ ) is good for gold. However, the price of gold also falls, just not as fast as stocks and other ccmmodities, and cash is king in a deflation. But gold will clobber cash in the long haul, because the government connivers and manipulators will inflate their way out of the politically unacceptable and unpalatable deflation/depression.

Pat Robertson is upset with Orlando for hosting a gay conference . He is predicting major retribution. On his list are hurricanes, tidal waves & earthquakes & if anything is left standing, then a meteor will finish it off.

These guys are funnier than the best stand-up comedians.

For SWP1
Oh his last email said .. "a
significant low will probably be in
place in August with a bounce and a retest
to follow. Therefore I cant see anything
great happening until October/November
unless we start getting dynamic wave
movement soon."
I know he likes plats a lot but it
must clear those low numbers first.

Robert Rubin has been unwavering in pursuing a strong US$. Intentionally or otherwise, he's created a monster, and that monster may be getting out of control.

the piece is in excellent condition and has an enviable sound quality through the old Marshall stack ,,,, can here it miles away ,,,,, even though I'd never sell it ,,,, somewhat disappointed ,,,,
,
Thanks for the info, though ,,,,,,

Military presence in Asia. Will the public support the continued expense if Japan sells US Treasuries and starts a ball rolling that ends with millions of unemployed Americans?
-EJ

I wish to be perfectly clear...I was passing along a communication from ROGER VOSS, not my own thoughts, although I am cynical enough to believe the markets are being manipulated. As long as bullion is weak, PM mining stocks will fall because of their inherent leverage. As the general equities markets crumple, selling in index stocks such as ABX and NEM will accentuate the mining stock plunge. I believe Y Auger predicted XAU could go as low as 35. If the Dow crashes and gold slumps significantly below 275/oz, XAU 35 is just possible. Just heard on the radio crude oil down a chunk to $12.75/bbl. Batten down the hatches!

Hey WetGold, nice axe! I seem to recall a certain K.K. Downing delivering the goods on a similar tool.
Studio.R, what does your catalog reveal about MY V-shape Gibson beauty--82590718.

got info?

Dow off lows but still sharply weaker near close while
bonds, dollar strong amid jitters over Asia's financial
problems, and uneasiness about U.S. corporate profits. Dow off
112 at 8859. S&P500 off 13 at 1099. Nasdaq down 21 at 1751.
Long bond up 23/32 to yield 5.65 percent. Oil stocks weak as
crude slides. Gold stocks weaker as bullion tumbles.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

( 1 ) CNNfn - Yen drives up trade debt - Nov. 18, 1996
Although the Japanese currency has recovered some, it has remained down enough to sparked a huge increase in auto exports to the U.S. The ministry of finance said the number of Japanese cars bound for the U.S in October shot up more than 44 percent from a year ago. "Even the Japanese are not that happy with the yen constantly weakening," Jason James, James Capel Pacific strategist,. http://europe.cnnfn.com/hotsto...1/18/japan_trade_pkg/index.htm

( 2 ) Weak Yen Helps Sony Achieve Group Earnings Targets
OSAKA, Japan ( Reuters ) - Japanese electronics giant Sony said it had achieved its group earnings targets for the business year just ended, helped the yen's weakness against the http://cgi.pathfinder.com/netly/latest/RB/1998Apr16/335.html ( Infoseek )

Thursday June 11, 10:27 am Eastern Time--Lying Time

Japan needs TO GROW to remedy weak yen-Rubin ( Goooodbye GM! Goooodbye Ford! )

WASHINGTON, June 11 ( Reuters ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Thursday the U.S. administration shared Japan's concern over the weak yen but noted that only a resumption of growth in Japan could remedy the Japanese currency's weakness.

Truth
What is truth? said jesting Pilate; and would not stay for an answer.
Francis Bacon ( 1561-1626

Soros sounds the alarm
http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/wires/9806/11/soros_wg/

I enjoyed your post but am perplexed by your explanation of apportionment. I believe the Constitution requires apportionment based upon the census, not no. of states. This from the landmark Supreme Court case Brushaber:

In the first
place this is shown by the fact that wherever ( and there were a number of cases of that kind ) a tax was levied
directly on real estate or slaves because of ownership, it was treated as coming within the direct class and
apportionment was provided for, while no instance of apportionment as to any other kind of tax is afforded.

Although even apportionment via census could lead to the sort of distortions to which you refer, just not as bad. I am confused, though, as to how a tax on slaves could have been apportioned to non-slave states. Unfortunately I'm not a historian. I'm not even a lawyer, praise be to God.

To Aragorn III: You torment my feeble memory with your reference to '80s guitarists. Tell me before I go mad: who did KK Downing play for? PS I miss my Les Paul . . .

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.75. The 50 day moving average is 29.95

6pak: do you see anything wrong with the plan the BOC is following. Better not be because just heard a news broadcast that since the economy is booming and there is virtually no inflation and at least a years worth of expansion in production no increase in rates to match the US$ is likely soon. Except for Canadian tourists a lower Cdollar is great for everybody except competitors as far as I can see.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .240. The 50 day moving average is .273. My database contains 8 occasions when the XAU closed in the 68.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is ranked #6. The #1 ranking was on April 29, 1986, with a gold price of $345.00, an XAU of 68.71; producing an XAU/AU ratio of .199

"The dance band on the Titanic played 'Nearer My God to Thee',
with icebergs off the starboard bow, won't you dance with me?"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/marketdata.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Probably a 1980 model, of which they're three...each having a different value ( $750.-$1200. blue book, exc. cond. ) . Best way to narrow in, what color? and, if the lacquer is see-thru, what type of wood? laminated layers in body? For modern Gibson dating ( eighties forward ) ....1st numeral of serial # plus 5th numeral of serial #. Prior numbering systems are much more complex.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.44. The 50 day moving average is 51.98

FWIW,Toyota has announced it will invest only in Europe as it
has been rebuffed for getting similar preferential treatment
under the North American autopact.They are talking about a
billion dollar facility to be built now in England instead of
putting it up in Canada or US.
The warning shots of a tradewar have been fired.
The impression has been given that investments of any kind
will be directed to the Eurobloc.This could have implications
if and when Japan Inc.will divest itself from US Treasuries
and buy the Euro variety.
In the meantime Japan cries poverty ,dropping the value of the
Yen,gets a trade advantage over US producers,a ballooning US
trade deficit,US institutes countervailing measures,Japan sells
Treasuries and interest rates going up....
The Samurai sword doesn't inflict pain...

FWIW,Toyota has announced it will invest only in Europe as it
has been rebuffed for getting similar preferential treatment
under the North American autopact.They are talking about a
billion dollar facility to be built now in England instead of
putting it up in Canada or US.
The warning shots of a tradewar have been fired.
The impression has been given that investments of any kind
will be directed to the Eurobloc.This could have implications
if and when Japan Inc.will divest itself from US Treasuries
and buy the Euro variety.
In the meantime Japan is dropping the value of the
Yen,gets a trade advantage over US producers,a ballooning US
trade deficit,US institutes countervailing measures,Japan sells
Treasuries and interest rates going up....
The Samurai sword doesn't inflict pain...

FWIW,Toyota has announced it will invest only in Europe as it
has been rebuffed for getting similar preferential treatment
under the North American autopact.They are talking about a
billion dollar facility to be built now in England instead of
putting it up in Canada or US.
The warning shots of a tradewar have been fired.
The impression has been given that investments of any kind
will be directed to the Eurobloc.This could have implications
if and when Japan Inc.will divest itself from US Treasuries
and buy the Euro variety.
In the meantime Japan is dropping the value of the
Yen,gets a trade advantage over US producers,a ballooning US
trade deficit,US institutes countervailing measures,Japan sells
Treasuries and interest rates going up....
The Samurai sword doesn't inflict pain...

The 50 day moving average for spot gold is $301.57; the 233 day M/A is $307.51

It is the V2 model, clear lacquer finish over laminated maple body and laminated neck, ebony fretboard. Wang-CHUNNNNNNG! ( thru a Marshall, of course! )

got earplugs?

"Mama stood crying at the dockside, saying please son, don't take this trip.
I said Mama, sweet mama don't you worry none. Even God couldn't sink this ship.
Well the whistle blew and they turned the screws. It turned the water into foam.
Destination sweet salvation. Goodbye home sweet home."
H. Chapin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/econ/econ.htm
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980611/business/stories/retail_2.html
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980611/business/stories/stocks_128.html

The probabilities are 94 to 1 that this is the case. ( Opinion based on read of tax regs on treatment of gold, crafted to favor exactly this scenario ) . LBMA was certainly--at the outset--a supporter. Until the
lightbulb went on, and they gleaned the hidden truth about just who
was REALLY moving gold.

The probabilities are 94 to 1 that this is the case. ( Opinion based on read of tax regs on treatment of gold, crafted to favor exactly this scenario ) . LBMA was certainly--at the outset--a supporter. Until the
lightbulb went on, and they gleaned the hidden truth about just who
was REALLY moving gold. Then came their public announcement about the
efficiacy of "auctions".

Sorry,got stuck in cybertraffic : )

...has vanished, anyone else notice?

HB

First, kudos to Lock&Load for the fine effort. Champ, I read your response to L&L and saw your question to me buried at the bottom. Circa 1971 a fine troop of rowdy boys from Birmingham ( West Midlands England! )
assemble a group that would pioneer a trail for many less-worthies and regrettable acts to follow. K.K. Downing and Glenn Tipton provided a classic two-guitar attack of tasteful HEAVY METAL ( gold ) that was often imitated but never duplicated. We know them well as Judas Priest.

SDRer: I think I missed something important along the way. Please expand on your 17:45/46. What discovery was made by LBMA? .... Curious minds want to know.

875., exc.

AURATOR, re for more info & ideas on pepping up Gold and Silver through the monetization of them into commonly circulating coins such as Silver Double Eagles and $100 Gold coins and the subsequent huge increases in POG and POS and thoughts on the resulting Gold/Silver ratio see:
Kitco's Discussion About Gold & Silver Bars, Coins, and Stocks
http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/comments/investment/display_short.cgi#start?SHOWTYPE=LONG
I'll post further thoughts over there - usually evenings or wee hours.

The collapse of commodities , interest rates and the beginning of a crash
in equities is increasing anxiety on Wall St. The door is not large enough to accomodate all the equities sellers in the days ahead. A decline below Dow 8780 will confirm -- THE DOW TOP IS IN. How long do you think
it will take before the big money really gets nervous and begins to buy gold as a safe heaven ?
My expectations:
Short term--a crash over the next 6-8 weeks driving the Dow to 6000 or so. Gold to hold around $280 +/- a few dollars.
Medium term-- After the crash, a tremendous rally back to Dow 7500 or so. Then, a Dow decline resuming. Golden Cheesehead, you got it right. This Dow decline will be coupled with crumbling equity markets world wide. Trade war is just beginning and I expect the Japanese to impose EXCHANGE CONTROLS shortly to stem the flow of the yens . A Nikkei below 14,000 will render many of their banks insolvent. The imposition of exchange controls by Japan will constitute the first trade war shot and I believe the US will respond immediatelty with tariffs controls. I don't have much faith in the Euro as a strong currency. The Europeans especially the Germans and the French don't like each other
and will disagree on just about every currency issue despite all their announcements .

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 11,1998 Issue 06.03
John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso


The Gold Market
 ECB Reserves: A 10% to 15% Gold Share


Summary
 The consensus among European central bank governors for a 10% to 15% share of gold in ECB reserves reflects a preference for more liquid dollars and a compromise between the negative attitudes of central banking technocrats towards gold and the more positive attitudes of some European politicians whose constituencies value some "gold backing" for the Euro.
 This decision is largely symbolic. Political considerations will lead to a cessation of European official gold sales for several years once the Euro is issued in 1999.
 This symbolic move will undermine gold market sentiment, leading to more producer hedging and speculator short selling than otherwise.
 Recent EMU related official gold sales prior to EMU will abate. The big liquidations of gold in Asia are over. With the abatement of the unusual supplies from above ground stocks that caused the 1997-1998 gold bear market, the gold price will recover to its 1994-1996 level despite a continued flow of central bank sales and loans of 1000 tonnes per year. A somewhat adverse decision on ECB gold reserves will slow this price recovery by encouraging producer hedging and dissuading speculative buying.
Recent Flows
The gold market rebounded off last Tuesday's lows, possibly because of rumored producer buybacks. The CFTC report on the Comex position of traders showed a large 53,000 net fund short position as of that date. The Comex open interest continued to build despite a small rally through the following Monday. We understand that, based on expectations of global deflation, funds continued to pour in on the short side in almost all commodities. It is rumored that Tuesday's $5.00 rally was due in part to one large fund covering its shorts because the CFTC report showed that it had too much company on the short side.
Rumors of Russian sales also encouraged fund short selling. Russia had $19 billion in reserves last fall. These reserves fell to just below $11 billion early this year, with $4.5 billion in gold. Reserves fell another $1 billion in early May but, in response to the large rise in ruble interest rates, these reserves have recently recovered most of that decline. There is no indication that Russian reserve gold has been sold.
ECB Gold Reserves
FRANKFURT, June 9 - ( Bloomberg ) "We haven't made a precise decision yet, the decision has to be made ( Duisenberg ) said. There is a consensus among central bank governors it will be around 10 to 15 percent.
The gold market sold off Tuesday on a statement by Wim Duisenberg that the ECB would hold only 10%-15% of its reserves in gold. Market expectations were in the 15% to 25% range.

Strangely, the ECB may not hold yen, the only other currency option beside dollars and gold.

FRANKFURT, June 9 ( Reuters ) European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said on Tuesday that it remained an open question whether Japanese yen would be a part of the ECB foreign exchange reserves.

Governor Fazio of the Bank of Italy made a statement several months ago that gold might constitute 30% of ECB reserves. Governor Trichet of the Bank of France has made numerous pro gold statements. Both central banks hold large gold reserves. A higher gold reserve ratio in the ECB might improve gold market sentiment, thereby raising the market value of the substantial gold reserves of these central banks. Yet, the ratio will most likely be 10% to 15%. Why have the European central banks opted for a low gold reserve ratio in the ECB?
There are two likely reasons. First, the ECB will apparently hold mostly dollars. Dollars are the most liquid of foreign exchange assets. The $55 billion ECB will be the apex institution for the $330 billion System of European Central Banks and will be the first line of defense in any attack on the new Euro. It is likely that such liquidity considerations weighed heavily in the emerging consensus on ECB reserve composition.
Second, EMU is a project that has been pushed forward by European politicians and European Union technocrats against the preferences of the political constituencies in most of Europe. The EU technocrats involved tend to regard gold as a relic from another era they are stuck with because they own too much of it to sell and because there is still an irrational attachment to it on the part of the public in some European countries. Wim Duisenberg, whose Dutch central bank has been a conspicuous seller of gold, is probably in this camp. Ottmar Issing, who will be in charge of ECB monetary policy, reportedly believes gold has no proper role in a modern monetary system. Yet, after last year's public response to Finance Minister Weigel's move to revalue the Bundesbank's gold reserves, he understands that public and political sentiment calls for some gold in the ECB. A 10% to 15% gold reserve ratio may be a compromise between today's central bank technicians, who see no need for gold as a central bank reserve a

Sam, Highrise, et al
I'll check in here in a couple hours and be on ICQ this evening from 8 to 9 Kitco time and again maybe later. I can't miss Star Trek you know!
I am running a PowerMac 9600 with 192 MB of RAM so other Mac users may not be able to do what I can. But I'll help where I can.

ANYONE: I have a question that I'm sure has been already answered here before but I must have missed: With silver at these prices, several of my friends are interested in buying junk ( clad? ) silver coins for currency ( barter ) in case of Y2K or other calamity. Any good recommendations as to where the best prices can be had? They can't afford to buy gold, so silver will have to do. I'm must away, but will check back for responses later tonight. Muchas gracias!

John Crudele has published another article explaining the book-cooking that is going on in the US Labor Dept.. The longer they manipulate the markets to keep the public from turfing WJC out, the bigger the subsequent fall will be . . .

- Steve


[New York Post]
BUSINESS

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FIGURES ARE TOO
GOOD TO BE TRUE

By JOHN CRUDELE
------------------------------------

I T is time for an independent
audit of the monthly employment
reports being put out by the U.S.
Labor Department. There are some
strange coincidences occurring with
the numbers.

Last Friday, Washington again
reported that the nation added a
lot of jobs in May. There were
296,000 new positions, to be exact,
a figure far above the 220,000 that
were being predicted by Wall
Street. Unemployment stayed at a
remarkably low 4.3 percent.

Ordinarily a number that strong
would bother the financial markets.
But wage increases stayed at just
the right level to keep Wall Street
calm. This has happened month after
month. As my kids would say,
"Pul-eeeze!"

I've written about this charade
enough so that long-time readers
probably understand what's going
on. The monthly job figure has to
come in at a level that is good
enough to make the next day's
headlines look positive - perhaps
even boost the stock market - but
not so strong that it causes the
financial markets to convulse over
the thought of higher interest
rates.

But now, an economist I trust says
he has found a unique pattern in
the numbers that needs
investigating. I'll get to the
specifics in a moment. But
considering President Clinton's
other problems, it would seem
worthwhile to make sure nobody has
been goosing the employment numbers
to keep his poll numbers up.

'Lest you think that I've gone over
to the conspiratorialist side, let
me explain that tampering with
government economic data is as old
as the Republican and Democratic
parties.

But there are cutsie little
alterations in the way these job
figures are compiled, like - as
I've discussed before - changing
the number of people surveyed, or
where those people come from. Take
out enough inner-city people and
you can change the unemployment
rate.

Or add assumptions about job growth
in small companies. This scam, as
I've been reporting for years, is
called the "bias factor" and it
adds millions of jobs each year
that probably don't exist.

Changing the seasonal adjustments,
or moving job growth back and forth
between months through revisions is
another common practice. Keep the
shells moving fast enough and
nobody will ever find out where the
ball is located - except maybe an
outside auditor.

Now for a new coincidence.

John Williams is a private
economist who for years has been
looking closely and with a critical
eye at the nation's job growth and
unemployment figures. He did the
same with Bush Administration
numbers and found inconsistencies
there, too.

But what Williams claims to have
found this time is quite
interesting. "The
seasonally-adjusted monthly jobs
data are being managed. Some-one is
setting targets and massaging the
numbers to hit those targets,"
Williams alleges.

That's quite a charge! But can he
prove it?

Williams thinks the target in May
was to break the 16-million new
jobs barrier from the beginning of
the Clinton administration. And
some-one did it through a sloppy
and predictable pattern, Williams
says.

"A number of times the revisions
and changes to the ( new jobs ) data
over a two-consecutive-month period
have been exact multiples of
250,000," Williams says he
discovered. That has happened four
times - to be exact, since the
Clinton Administration began.

"The odds of that happening at
random are more than one in 60
million," Williams calculates.

How'd they get the 250,000 jobs to
put them over the 16 million mark?

Williams says that one way the May
jobs number grew was through the
annual benchmark revision,
scheduled to be published this
month. That revision back through
April, plus the 296,000 new
positions in May, added exactly
750,000 new jobs to the total
revised levels of employment
reported Friday.

Another multiple of 250,000.
Amazing.

With those 750,000 new jobs, the
total Clinton-era employment
increases went over 16 million by a
mere 10,000 jobs. A real
headline-grabber.

But the monthly job figures simply
don't match reality. Not only did
the new claims for unemployment
insurance jump to an
extraordinarily high 339,000 this
past week, but corporate layoffs
continue unabated.

This week, Motorola announced it
will get rid of 15,000 employees,
or 10 percent of its work force.
Motorola's cuts aren't yet included
in the 273,822 layoffs announced so
far this year, an average of 45,637
a month and an increase of 32
percent over last year's levels.

Challenger Gray is projecting that
job cuts will top 500,000 this year
for the first time since 516,000
jobs were eliminated in 1994.

Maybe there's a simple explanation
- like, companies are both hiring
and laying off enormous numbers of
people. And if Williams'
calculations are correct, maybe
there's a reason the numbers beat
one-in-four-billion odds.

But given the political situation
in Washington today, it's time for
someone to watch the job counters.
They have means, motive and
opportunity to cheat.

------------------------------------

( and from mid-east/Arab/Muslim wisdom:: ) _
"a man's un-spoken word....he is master of....
....but....... his spoken/written word...
.....master's him ) .

from bible/x-tan/Proverbs:
'A word fitly spoken ( -written? )
is like apples of gold,
in pictures of silver'

....
and a soft tongue
....
breaks the bone .....

I would say something positive about gold such as: at least gold can't burn, but you all have heard that stuff before. Unfortunately, I'm not even depressed that gold was down almost $7. Tops go to bottoms and bottoms go to tops.

I would also tell you it couldn't get much worse but Disney's son could be right and $250 might visit us. Personally, I'm thinking $283. Donald previously answer my question on the number of days gold has been below $290 in the last 18 years. Less than 30 days at the time. We'll see.

No matter what you think about the gold market you just gotta love the volatility.

Hope most of you have some dry powder or even made a few $'s on the ups and downs. We watch this new............never mind.

PMSP

Tom

JP: You are much too pessimistic on the stock market. The current deflationary environment is only modestly negative for most equiities. I doubt if this drop will exceeed 10% if bond yields continue to ease and foreign capital continues to flow into the US. But a very negative environment for gold and commodities. POG will almost certainly test $280 again. And if that doesn't hold. look for $260 this summer.

I've said it before and will say it again. US stocks will not go down for the count until gold prices and bond yields are surging.and foreign capital starts to flee the country.

JP: You are much too pessimistic on the stock market. The current deflationary environment is only modestly negative for the equiity market. I doubt if this drop will exceeed 10% if bond yields continue to ease and foreign capital continues to flow into the US. But a very negative environment for gold and commodities. POG will almost certainly test $280 again. And if that doesn't hold. look for $260 this summer.

I've said it before and will say it again. US stocks will not go down for the count until gold prices and bond yields are surging.and foreign capital starts to flee the country.

If it is not made by Microsoft - the Windows, MSN, Explorer etc. may likely not be very compatible to say the least and may seem at times to sabotage the non-Microsoft stuff to say the worst.

My old buddy George Stokely, in 54 he was 84 and I was 25. He taught me a lot. A floor trader on NYSE all his life. He knew the best of them. I wish y'all could have known him.

IMHO Scroomall! We kicked their butts once, our biggest mistake was paying for thier rebuild, if we hadn't done it they would still be a smoking ruin, MacArthur/Truman caused this one!

All: This deflationary process never ceases to amaze me. The US dollar went up nearly 0.75% today to 101.97, and gold went down to about $286/oz. I wonder which country had a rise in gold price? India? Hong Kong? Japan? Brazil? Mexico? Australia? Canada? The list is getting longer and longer. Eventually, there will be only the US dollar left. Then -- will the US dollar continue to go up for a time, with gold going up too? Amazing times. Perhaps gold can go below 280/oz. But -- if it does -- what an opportunity to buy, especially if we have a significant correction at the same time!

Just keep your powder dry, and you will be rewarded handsomely. This can't go on much longer.

Chinese witness: Beijing forces sterilizations,abortions
June 11, 1998
WASHINGTON ( CNN ) -- A former Chinese population control administrator says she felt like "a monster" during the 14 years she watched what she called China's brutal enforcement of its "one child per couple" policy.

Beijing says the policy is necessary for population control and that forced abortions and sterilizations are prohibited. But Wednesday, lawmakers on Capitol Hill heard graphic testimony and saw a shocking video, both of which strongly counter China's official line on its role in family planning.

Gao Xiao Duan told Congressional lawmakers her office paid informants to report on unauthorized pregnancies of neighbors. Women who violated China's policy on pregnancy could be seized during a nighttime raid, or have their homes destroyed, as the government forced the offenders to submit to abortions, Gao said.

"I did so many brutal things," Gao told the House International Relations human rights subcommittee. "All those ... years I was a monster in the daytime, injuring others by carrying out the Chinese Communist authorities' barbaric planned birth policy."

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9806/11/china.abortion/index.html

also:

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Secretary of State Madeleine Albright placed limits Thursday on U.S. cooperation with a Mexican investigation into whether U.S. undercover agents on an anti-narcotics sting operation in Mexico violated that country's laws.

Albright said the United States would cooperate ``as possible'' with the Mexican probe, but added that Mexican attempts to prosecute or extradite the agents would be ``counterproductive.''

Albright spoke at a news conference at the conclusion of two days of talks that involved more than a dozen cabinet officials each from the United States and Mexico.

The sting operation, codenamed ``Operation Casablanca,'' netted 150 arrests, some of them Mexican bankers who were lured into the United States under false pretenses. In addition, $110 million was seized and three Mexican banks were indicted in the United States.

Initially welcomed by Mexican authorities, the operation touched off an uproar in Mexico after it was disclosed that U.S. agents carried out the sting without informing Mexican officials. Mexican officials have indicated a willingness to prosecute the U.S. agents and to seek their extradition to face criminal charges.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-US-Mexico.html

* Do we have the right to enforce our laws on foriegn soil? Sounds like foreign invasion of Mexico to me.

- c

If you are still there,
How do I log on ICQ - I have a Souped Up Mac 8500 120mg 4.2 Gig 64 ram etc. should be Ok. I have never tried ICQ - may give it a shot later.

Thanks,

HighRise

Earl-BIS statutes allow BIS to perform for any corporation and /or individual any/all of the functions it performs for client Central Banks. It can, for instance, buy or sell gold for their account as directed.
{:- )

Who asked for me to repost this? I forget, but found it again today...

Subject: Drinking Guide

Some Guidelines.....

SYMPTOM: Feet cold and wet.
FAULT: Glass being held at incorrect angle.
ACTION: Rotate glass so that open end points toward ceiling.

SYMPTOM: Beer unusually pale and tasteless.
FAULT: Glass empty.
ACTION: Get someone to buy you another beer.

SYMPTOM: Opposite wall covered with fluorescent lights.
FAULT: You have fallen over backward.
ACTION: Have yourself leashed to bar.

SYMPTOM: Mouth contains cigarette butts.
FAULT: You have fallen forward.
ACTION: See above.

SYMPTOM: Beer tasteless, front of your shirt is wet.
FAULT: Mouth not open, or glass applied to wrong part of face.
ACTION: Retire to restroom, practice in mirror.

SYMPTOM: Feet warm and wet.
FAULT: Improper bladder control.
ACTION: Stand next to nearest dog, complain about his house training.

SYMPTOM: Floor blurred.
FAULT: You are looking through bottom of empty glass.
ACTION: Get someone to buy you another beer.

SYMPTOM: Floor moving.
FAULT: You are being carried out.
ACTION: Find out if you are being taken to another bar.

SYMPTOM: Room seems unusually dark.
FAULT: Bar has closed.
ACTION: Confirm home address with bartender.

SYMPTOM: Taxi suddenly takes on colorful aspect and textures.
FAULT: Beer consumption has exceeded personal limitations.
ACTION: Cover mouth.

Ron: Today my roommate showed me an article in the Oregonian regarding a plant called Stevia. Unknown to me, it is evidently a potent substitute for sugar in all applications. According to the article, one plant is sufficient to serve the sugar needs of a family of four for one year with no caloric content.

No mention of long term effects on the libido or other important considerations.

First we get the ( fall in ) prices, then we get the news.

These charts were posted last night, unfortunately I did not copy the poster's name with the URLs.

They are very good and I spent some time with them. If one checks Gold, CRB, Oil, Lumber etc. one will find that we may be in for a long ride down which started back in the 80's.

I set the dates at 01/01/70 to 06/10/98. Not all items have data that goes back that far, but when they do, it is interesting to see the complete picture.

http://www.prophetdata.com/meats.html ( vegetarians, stay away from this page )
http://www.prophetdata.com/food.htm ( sugar, grains, etc )
http://www.prophetdata.com/industrials_metals.html ( gold, plat, copper, etc. )
http://www.prophetdata.com/energies.html ( guess what's here )
http://www.prophetdata.com/currencies.html ( ditto )
http://www.prophetdata.com/indices.html ( ditto )
http://www.prophetdata.com/england.htm ( will fix you right up )
http://www.prophetdata.com/other_foreign.html ( Winnipeg flaxseed, Pibor, etc., fer God's sake )

I like these charts because you can change the date range on the graphs and go back as far as the '70s, in some cases.

I will try to find the name of the poster in a while. If anyone remembers please give him/her credit for some good sites.

HighRise

SDRer: Thanks. ..... Certainly the LBMA knew that all along. Didn't they? Why should it have come as a revelation and how/why did it affect their operations? ......... More, how do you and I go about opening an account with the BIS? And would we want to do so? ........ on second thought, perhaps it's better to keep one's own counsel. Buy 'em and put 'em away in a depository of our own choosing. Yes? ......... A spot where an irritated rotweiler named Butch can keep an eye on 'em. Yes.

or complaining?

Looks like a laser light show.
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

More downward movement tonight?

HighRise

I have never been a pessimist before . In my opinion, once a crash begins it can't be stopped until we run out of sellers. Right now , people are loaded up with stocks. Mutual funds cash reserves are at historically very low levels somewhere around 4.3%, barely enough to cover redemptions. Also, I read somewhere that many of the funds have established credit lines by pledging their securities as colleteral . As we move below Dow 8780, many people will begin to redeem their shares and the funds will be force to sell their stocks. The problem is that -THERE IS NO ON E TO SELL IT TO. Who will be the new buyers ?
The Far East is sinking and the European are having second thoughts .Old Gold- Can you name the new buyers ?

WASHINGTON, June 11 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin appeared to suggest on Thursday that the United States would not intervene to boost the yen but later clarified his remarks to make clear intervention was always an option.

``Mr. Chairman could I just make one comment because I think there's something that happened that could mislead markets and I don't want that to happen,'' Rubin said to committee chairman Sen. William Roth ofDelaware.

``It ( intervention ) is always a tool that's available,'' he said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/japan_usa__1.html


HighRise

Thanks for your ( as always ) learned input re: tax treatment favoring the circumstance where the loaned gold resides in CB vaults. This may remove one obstacle if the loan is called and the borrower has to repurchase the gold - at least he knows where it is. But since the CB doesn't legally own the gold anymore ( it has been titled to another owner ) , what difference does it make to the borrower if the gold is in CB vault or not? He has to buy it back from somone. on ( very probably ) unfavorable terms, or default on the gold loan. If the original buyer won't sell it back the gold will be repurchased on the auction market, and it will certainly influence the price in an upward direction.

Preacher

I never thought I'd see SSRIF & TVX under $3 this year

HighRise: From my limited data base, I show the lows for ( approx ) the last 20 years as follows:

PL: $250 in 1985.
SI: $3.50 in early 1994.
GC: $280 in the early '80's

Anyone care to start a book on how quickly we see these levels again? ... Pick a date. Any date.

I think it was Ron ( In sack-of-tomatoes ) . As I noted last night, the price data on the charts appears to have been adjusted for inflation or some other effect, so that they cannot be read like actual price charts. Ron checked the sugar 11 chart with my historical data and it was all boozed-up. Be careful on how you interpret these babies.

The equity markets came down pretty good today, but not good
enough to qualify as a crash. Especially with bonds showing
strength. There is a certain air of crises floating around
though.

As in all such times there is a flight from risk to safety. In
past years we have seen a flight to gold, but has been noted
several times, this tends to come later in the cycle after real
panic sets in, bank failures and such.

The knee jerk reaction at first is to follow the normal market
correction strategy which is to go to cash and or bonds and wait
for the recovery. Avoid commodities since they will be going
down as the economy slows and demand slackens.

So we see stocks weakening, bonds and the dollar strengthening,
and metals and other commodities weakening.

Where do things go from here? It all depnds on the dollar and
the severity of the global slowdown. To me the slowdown looks
like it's going to be pretty darn severe. If derivatives
speculation and unsound investments have been rampant enough
in the brokerage houses and banking sectors to break a few,
there will be fear as to the safety of bonds and even the
dollar itself. This will be a boom for precious metals.

If on the other hand, the decline is more orderly and the US
merely goes into somewhat of a recessionary phase as foreign
economies finally begin to recover, then commodity prices in
general will slowly recover as things get going again.

There is also a matter of the dollar reserves of various European
central banks being at some risk should the dollar decline
before they can be converted to Euro reserves. The central banks
have much better control over gold prices than the value of
the dollar and might consider it prudent to move some dollar
reserves into gold reserves while awaiting the conversion.
It is better to do this kind of thing now while the dollar is
being sought by wild eyed flight capital then to wait too long
if it is to be done at all.

For now we shall wait and warch together, yes?

I propose we restructure the "kitco discussion room" into the "kitco pawn shop". Whoa!...Whataya' go there, sonny? Okie crude this p.m.: $10.25/bbl...and you thought you had a lousy day! ( gulp and puff ) ...one more time..... ( gulp and puff ) ....ahhhh.

Here are the top three dealers from a survey by the Silver & Gold Report newsletter: For 90% silver bags - FJ Vollmer ( 800 ) 447-8368; Bill Youngerman ( 800 ) 327-5010; Dillon Gage ( 800 ) 375-4653. For clad 40% Halves - Western Federal ( 800 ) 238-2121; California Numismatic Investment ( ( 800 ) 225-7531; National Gold Exchange ( 813 ) 969-4111

There is very large margin debt on the NYSE. In a major market decline much of that debt will be wiped out by brokerage firms selling these securities at the market price.

I think the Asian markets are going down the toilet again tonight. First, japan to new lows,then New Zeland, Australia, , Tiwain,Singapore,

LBMA knew? Yes, of course. Everyone has always known. And the paper game worked to the advantage of all while it worked. But, as we now know, things got out of hand ( they always do, yes? ) . Like a summer hail storm, many projectiles rained down over our players. Taken separately, each was well within risk-management parameters; but hailstones don't drop one per hour or one per day.

Opening an account: First we need AG's approval. Then we need around $500,000,000 ( that's a guess, and probably too low ) . To be blunt, I haven't got the blunt to open an account. Unless you'd like to be my
'sponsor'? Let's go to the dog ( s ) instead!
Butch we can trust. {:- ) )

Higrise@OOPS One is gratified! His open-ended statement made it apparent
that there was nothing we COULD do. Which is pretty much the truth, the heretofore UNSPOKEN truth. {:- (

Margin debt still exist in the form of 2nd mortgages, bank loans and credit card debt. And any possibility of repayment from stock appreciation has been wiped out as the market continues to decline and stocks are sold at a loss to cover margin calls.

The common man's derivative.

HighRise

A weekly closing below the $273.50 level will be devastating and gold should decline back to the $235 area at the very least. Key months are due in July/august with panic cycles due in October/November.

I have been reading the posts on this site for a couple of months now, and want to thank everyone for their imput. It has been both informative and enjoyable. As a long term investor in both the physical and mining co's, I need a little balance when I start trading futures & etc. My portfolio of gold stocks looks like the 1929 crash, but I believe that the PMs will have their day in the sun in the future. Short term I am long ag - made money up - losing money down. Today looking for the best way to cost average on stocks, I looked at FCX_pB a stock which I own and bought at $30 and $25. I must be missing something, the stock sells $21.25 pays a 4% dividend, based on the price of au, and is redeamable 2-2006 for 1/10 cash of the POG. Isn't this a pretty steep discount to the POG. FCX_pA is the same and it is redeamable 8-2003. What am I missing.

Yes, a Nikkei below 14000 may render the Japanese banks insolvent - but becuase of Y2k problems with their software, they won't know it.

Gary North on y2k: "The 300-year experiment in central banking, begun in 1694, is just about over."

going to sleep well tonight, has probably had a bad hair day today along with all the other people in the currency markets and can only look foward to more trouble in the morning.
This financial stuff is probably reeking havoc on his married life and as he has told Japan "to bad", I have to say the same to him on his marriage difficulties.
I have e-mailed him the address here at Kitco if he needs any advice and I forewarned him , it will be a week before he can post after getting his password.
Asia down tonight with gold holding steady!!!

Monica will talk soon! She is cutting her deal. Now the President is out of the loop of control.
"Obstruction of Justice"

While the markets crash - WOW!

HighRise

Brother Tom, I feel guilty, everything was supposed
to be just fine, but bloody banker spoiled the whole game.
Hate me if you wish, I'm also closing Vodka/Pickle
Research Lab as my protest against actions of this
Duisburg ( or what was his bloody name? ) . PMSP. Br.Oris.

AAAARGH!!! I knew that, I mean I only had a few of their albums . . . perhaps we should adopt as a motto, " ( Precious ) Metal rules the land!"

Snowbird: Did the learned Mr. Armstrong define his use of the term "panic cycle"? More specifically, are we discussing here, a panic into or out of PMs? ..... Give it to us boldly. This is after all the gloom and doom channel.

Maybe you should do a system backup first.

Maybe Armstrong is right. $9 trillion in Japan is looking for new home in US bond market. He was quoted in Japan on Nikkei Quick News yesterday and forecast that dollar would move up to 145 area today. It was 141 yesterday. If interest rates are collapsing still in Japan and people fear banks, they just want to get the money out of there in a hurry. May be Armstrong might be wrong. We will see 200 dollar yen next week instead of next year. Check out "why bonds may be the next bull market."
http://www.pei-intl.com

Charts,
Yes they were modified, but if they are correctly illustrating the commodity, they are worisome, I think. Anyway we can find out how they are modified - for inflation or a currency? There has been some factor introduced that takes out the bumps on some charts and one commodity doesn't relate to another correctly like one is used to.

Whatever,
Thanks,

HighRise

After tonight,if and when Japan goes below 14,500.00 that will put a large number of japanese banks into insolvency. They already have h hugh amount of bad loans, a hugh amount invested in break even or losing stocks,and a hugh amount on loan to Asia. If we do not get concerted
US intervention to help the yen overnight,the fundamental picture will not have changed from last night, and we could see 150 yen to the dollar by tomorrow.
Also , today is Friday in Japan, and a real big down day today could lead to real panic on Monday.
What do you think so far??

Really! that bad huh?

You are scaring the crap out of me - OK, I won't try it.......but, Hey, what a challenge. I Have to much work to do while I watch the Asia show tonight - can't risk a Gates melt down.

HighRise

One of my fantasies is to have Lewinsky bring down Boy Klinton causing the crash of the US dollar, ejaculating gold to where it belongs: north of $600

The bull market in bonds is continuing. By the end of 1999 ( my opinion )
you will be able to secure a new mortgage or refinance an existing one at 2% ( assuming you qualify ) , Just like in Japan today .

Ag -547,309 total 86,861,990 ( new multi-year low ) ... Au -33180 total 1,016,872 Sorry, I can't get the elligle totals at this time.

to me that all these investors want to put their money in US bonds, when it was only 3 short years ago that the US dollar almost collapsed. I guess what it says to me is when I wake up and put my money all in bonds,
the bond market will go south. Also, if these world class investors are all investing in bonds, what happened to their idea of diversification?

Thatis what the charts I was talking about show - Deflation since 82 or there-a-bouts.

I think I bought in to soon.

HighRise

Help -- is there a currency expert in the ( Kitco ) house?

I have several rationales, and need some advice:

1 ) The dollar is up, due to 'flight to safety'. US markets are down, because foreign investors are not buying equities, but rather US treasuries. Relatively long term commitment.

2 ) The dollar is up due to increased demand in countries where their currencies are being hit -- the behavior of the US markets is irrelevant. The locals/local companies are buying US treasuries, and selling their own currencies due to fear that these currencies will fall more. Possibly a shorter term commitment.

What I don't understand is the following: Is what we are seeing due to choice 1 ) or 2 ) ? Choice 2 ) might be more temporary.

Secondly, the US dollar took a nose dive during the 1994 Mexico crisis, rather than rise. Was this because the Mexicans needed liquidity after the fall of their currency? Did the US dollar go up first, then down? How does that scenario differ from the current one? Finally, with the trillion or so of US dollar reserves all around the world, how soon will foreign countries start selling their US dollars? Only after financial recovery seems assured?

Complicated. The reason I am asking this is because I am trying to get a handle on how long the US dollar will remain as strong as it is.

Perhaps it will get stronger. If so, this will force the hand of the Chinese to devalue the Yuan. And -- a rising dollar will tend to push down the price of gold some more -- for a time, anyway.

Each time the dividend is paid the price of this stock will decay by the dividend amount. Starting today at $21.25 and assuming gold is the same as today in 2006 you will make a wompan 4% return ( approx ) on your money per year. Of course, if the pog rises, the rise is captured as gravy above and beyond...

I'm sorry, I used "gold" and "rise" in the same sentence. Hard to do today.

If you believe the pog will rise significantly by then, go for it. If you think it may stay flat, buy yourself a CD at a bank. You'll sleep better.

Help -- is there a currency expert in the ( Kitco ) house?

I have several rationales, and need some advice:

1 ) The dollar is up, due to 'flight to safety'. US markets are down, because foreign investors are not buying equities, but rather US treasuries. Relatively long term commitment.

2 ) The dollar is up due to increased demand in countries where their currencies are being hit -- the behavior of the US markets is irrelevant. The locals/local companies are buying US treasuries, and selling their own currencies due to fear that these currencies will fall more. Possibly a shorter term commitment.

What I don't understand is the following: Is what we are seeing due to choice 1 ) or 2 ) ? Choice 2 ) might be more temporary.

Secondly, the US dollar took a nose dive during the 1994 Mexico crisis, rather than rise. Was this because the Mexicans needed liquidity after the fall of their currency? Did the US dollar go up first, then down? How does that scenario differ from the current one? Finally, with the trillion or so of US dollar reserves all around the world, how soon will foreign countries start selling their US dollars? Only after financial recovery seems assured?

Complicated. The reason I am asking this is because I am trying to get a handle on how long the US dollar will remain as strong as it is.

Perhaps it will get stronger. If so, this will force the hand of the Chinese to devalue the Yuan. And -- a rising dollar will tend to push down the price of gold some more -- for a time, anyway.

...to look after the farm while we Antipodeans sleep. I wake up and find that the chooks, ducks, geese and hogs have all escaped, the barn has burned down and the missus has run off with a grain dealer. This is the last time I leave you lot in charge. Goin' back to bed!!

PEI Panic Cycles are defined as outside reversals or big moves in one direction. If I understand him right, seasonal low in metals is due in June/July followed by base period and then big moves coming in October/November. So if gold hits his target of $235 in next few weeks then panic may be to upside in October. If gold rallies without making new low in June-July then panic will be to downside and new lows come next year.

Are the Japanese afraid to open their stock market tonight ?

Brother oris, relax. This Dutch dog is not the cause. The volatility shown by gold is very good. Whether gold was down simply because of speculative paper gold sellers or flight to safety to bonds ( or both ) these things reverse very quickly.

Gold is not dead. Physical is cheap...buy some while you can.

Vodka/pickle research lab may just have given correct results a few days or weeks early. Disneys son is good but I believe a reversal is very close. December gold @$289, I will go long. Gold @ $250....maybe but I doubt it and certainly not for long.

Gambling on futures contracts is one thing but Im more concerned with when to buy the stocks. Not yet but a few more days of this and Ill jump. Please remind me...PMSP. Im champing at the bit now.

Tom

presidency sink, too. Thus, when the market cracks and the dollar
plummets, they will use the "presidency crisis" to take the heat off
of themselves.
BTW, thanks SilverBaron for the Silver warehouse report. A new low
in stock levels is nice to see, but will it have enough effect on
the price of Silver, yet. I'd rather not see Silver go below 5 again.
Fox-Man

is already 2% down below new lows. The yen is at 144.05 and Mr rubin and Mr. Greenspan are having dinner and thinking about" shooting the damn bull!"

I accept your apologies as offered and raise you one in apologizing for my reaction to your rebuttal.

Actually, despite my comments on stagflation, I am not a deflationist goldbug. Although I have not read your posts over a long period of time, I sense that you, D.A. ( known for Kitco eons ) , and I probably share a "proto-inflationary" bias.

I have not posted my long wave views here for well over a year since they are, shall we say, a bit premature. My analysis tells me that we are in a time and price matrix which is more like 1944-50 than any other recent period. The seeds of inflation have been sown, but the fruit of disinflation is ripe.

As you know from your economic studies, short term rates bottomed in 1942 and long term ones in 1946 when everyone expected the return of an even more virulent deflation. That was, of course, the bottom, although the transition was rocky at best.

Cheers!

HighRise, I dunno, maybe I'm being too cautious. I know zip about Macs.

Thanks for your reply. Sleep???? is that something between HK and the London market. We sleep on good up days. On maturity FCX would have to pay $28.60 per share if au stayed the same. I think the market looks at the stock more in yield terms than a long term au call. I don't know if the bank could pay me, and in what in 2003. Looking to go long au futures when it stops. Don't know when that will be maybe within the next few days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

is reporting NIKKEI off 220.48 at 14793.55

So is Japan broke now? Am I watching 1929 redux in real time?

Any url with chart to watch NIKKEI would be appreciated.

Thank you.

Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
8:21PM
14854.85
-159.19
-1.06%

There it is!

I was expecting the NIKKEI to recover somewhat, given the Chinese statement that devaluation "is not an option." But maybe Japan investors were spooked by today's DOW. The reasons for the drop in the DOW are not things that are going to get better, a trend of corporate profits down. If so, we might find ourselves in a more traditional stock market drop that cirles the globe, round and round, day after day.

The world economy has been roaring along, doors rattling, fenders flapping, engine screaming. Looks like we've lost a wheel this a.m.
-EJ

Tonight will be the most important night for the world economy since the collapse of the THAI BAHT!

Nikkei gaps DOWN through 15000! Now down 220 points at 14793. The BOJ may end up as owner of all the shares listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange! From reliable sources the BOJ is reported to have JUST bought 400 tonnes of GOLD.... could be just be the tip of the ( golden ) iceberg?!

Nick@C: I think there would be alot of happy people if the Australians decided to take over as the manager of the world's currency. Think of how much better off we would be if all we needed to do was to manage the local US dollar, withought worry about the rest of the world! I think our American fate is sealed, eventually, if we do not step down from this role. Perhaps not til 2010-2015, perhaps y2k.

But -- be careful -- you might get what you ask for! AG might give you the keys to the monster machine, and quietly retire to some isolated desert isle, or join Tolerant1 in Key West!

Hope everything is fine down under!

per Reuters. The TSE and Ontario Securities Commission issued a report Monday calling for independent licensed testing, a Code of National Standards to cover news releases, and a uniform set of securities and stock exchange rules to restore confidence.

yen at 144.45. Ok we are just about full circle here. If they really crush Asia tonight, Russia and Europe will get a wake up call and tomorrow will be a big down day in the US along with it possibly breaking the back of the USA dollar rise and the fall of gold.

Look out below.....................

Highrise - do you have the ICQ stuff installed?
From there double click the ICQ flower icon - I made an alias of it to put out where I can reach it easier.
From there pull the bottom button down to select Online.
Later we can add users. Let me know where you are so far.

Highrise - do you have the ICQ stuff installed?
From there double click the ICQ flower icon - I made an alias of it to put out where I can reach it easier.
From there pull the bottom button down to select Online.
Later we can add users. Let me know where you are so far.

Highrise - do you have the ICQ stuff installed?

From there double click the ICQ flower icon - I made an alias of it to put out where I can reach it easier.

From there pull the bottom button down to select Online.

Later we can add users. Let me know where you are so far.

Please post the comments of Roger Voss again. His statement that the larger funds are colluding to drive down Precious Metals during equity downturns has a scary ring of truth to it. As the Hunt Brothers showed, the market can be cornered and easily manipulated. The Mutuals certainly have the necessary funds to do it. The "Gold Exit Door" is an obvious choice during market fire, but is the first to burn. Bitter irony indeed, for Kitcoites who are cheering for the crash.

Being in this paranoic frame of mind, let me ask again why the Kitco quotes and charts always seem to stop working when POG is going up? Today of course, things worked perfectly and we were able to witness the carnage in all its purple glory.

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.html

I hope your reliable source is reliable, because if it isn"t then you become unreliable for reporting it , you know what I mean?
If you are right then that is a dandy piece of information!!

To the beginning of the unwinding. It appears that the PPT is close to losing control due to the gravity of worldwide economics. When the US pillar falls just as when the Soviet Pillar fell the system will become unhinged.

I hope your reliable source is reliable, because if it isn"t then you become unreliable for reporting it , you know what I mean?
If you are right then that is a dandy piece of information!!

GM

Interesting! Will they now sell U.S. Treasurys as once threatened
some time ago? Hmmmmm. Fox-Man

Can anyone tell me what the verdict was from the Venezueal government? From watching the stock's close, I assume that they said they would not hear the case, but I've not yet heard that. I need at least one good piece of news today!!

Can anyone tell me what the verdict was from the Venezueal government? From watching the stock's close, I assume that they said they would not hear the case, but I've not yet heard that. I need at least one good piece of news today!!

You are right, it is difficult to untangle the various reasons
the dollar is up. There are indeed a number of interrelated
reasons that are all factors simultaneously and which one is
dominant at any given time varies with the phase of the cycle.

1 ) The primary basic reason that started everything off is that
the real rate of return on bonds is higher than in other
countries, due to the strength of the US economy while holding
infaltion in check. This produces net inflow into US from
overseas ( and not just bonds, but investments in manufacturing,
real estate, etc. )

2 ) Eventual result of draining investments in foreign economies
is slow weakening, and attempted fiscal stimulus by lowering
local rates accelerates flow.

3 ) Final stages bring "flight to safety" funds.

4 ) A minor factor, though of some significance is "Flight from
equites" into bonds in US lowers rates and increases the amount
of dollars to be converted from foreign currency to buy bonds

5 ) a few other smaller factors too.

If one hlods inflation in check while the economy booms, then
each dollar becomes worth more. Unless an amount of inflation
is allowed so as to keep each dollar worth approximately the
same number of goods then an economic boom will lead to more
goods chasing the same dollars and an ensuing drop in
commodity prices. Strong dollar = weak everything else.

In ansewr to your original question, at the moment I believe the
primary factor is the final phase flight to safety.

Aurophile: Seems like only a moment ago that you were bemoaning the lack of foodfights, hereabouts. Given the conciliatory tone of your 20:15, it's unlikely we will ever see them again. More's the pity.

Mashed potatoes sliding down the wall and strawberry colored gelatin in the chandelier, lent a certain cachet to the musty halls of Kitco.

LGB! Front and center.

U.S. congressional leaders demand IMF documents

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. House Republican leaders demanded Thursday that the White House make International Monetary Fund budgets and staff reports public and threatened to delay a vote on IMF funding until their conditions were met.

"Without these documents, it will not be possible for House members to make an informed decision on additional funding for the IMF, and we are highly reluctant to schedule an IMF vote under those circumstances," House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Dick Armey and Majority Whip Tom DeLay said in a letter to President Clinton.

Clinton wants Congress to give the IMF nearly $18 billion to replenish resources drained by last year's multibillion- dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The IMF says it needs the cash injection because usable resources would be just $10-$12 billion without it, which would threaten its ability to respond to future economic crises.

The $18 billion package was approved by the Senate but has stalled in the House, where the Republican leadership has called for the IMF to open its books and explain its decision-making.

"The plain fact is that no one in Congress has any way of knowing whether IMF funds in Indonesia, Russia, or other nations have been improperly used," the letter said.

In a statement, Armey said the letter reflected the "growing frustration among the Republican leaders that the administration has ignored repeated requests" for the IMF's operating budget and staff reviews of its policies.

U.S. congressional leaders demand IMF documents

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. House Republican leaders demanded Thursday that the White House make International Monetary Fund budgets and staff reports public and threatened to delay a vote on IMF funding until their conditions were met.

"Without these documents, it will not be possible for House members to make an informed decision on additional funding for the IMF, and we are highly reluctant to schedule an IMF vote under those circumstances," House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Dick Armey and Majority Whip Tom DeLay said in a letter to President Clinton.

Clinton wants Congress to give the IMF nearly $18 billion to replenish resources drained by last year's multibillion- dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The IMF says it needs the cash injection because usable resources would be just $10-$12 billion without it, which would threaten its ability to respond to future economic crises.

The $18 billion package was approved by the Senate but has stalled in the House, where the Republican leadership has called for the IMF to open its books and explain its decision-making.

"The plain fact is that no one in Congress has any way of knowing whether IMF funds in Indonesia, Russia, or other nations have been improperly used," the letter said.

In a statement, Armey said the letter reflected the "growing frustration among the Republican leaders that the administration has ignored repeated requests" for the IMF's operating budget and staff reviews of its policies.

jefsilver7__A: Thanks for the read on the learned Mr. Armstrong. Sounds like he is fixated on 2-3-5. That number has a familiar ring to it. No? We shall all watch together as big forces in dim corners fight with big money to keep POG above USD 280 ...... or was it USD 300 ..... I forget. Yes?

U.S. congressional leaders demand IMF documents

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. House Republican leaders demanded Thursday that the White House make International Monetary Fund budgets and staff reports public and threatened to delay a vote on IMF funding until their conditions were met.

"Without these documents, it will not be possible for House members to make an informed decision on additional funding for the IMF, and we are highly reluctant to schedule an IMF vote under those circumstances," House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Dick Armey and Majority Whip Tom DeLay said in a letter to President Clinton.

Clinton wants Congress to give the IMF nearly $18 billion to replenish resources drained by last year's multibillion- dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The IMF says it needs the cash injection because usable resources would be just $10-$12 billion without it, which would threaten its ability to respond to future economic crises.

The $18 billion package was approved by the Senate but has stalled in the House, where the Republican leadership has called for the IMF to open its books and explain its decision-making.

"The plain fact is that no one in Congress has any way of knowing whether IMF funds in Indonesia, Russia, or other nations have been improperly used," the letter said.

In a statement, Armey said the letter reflected the "growing frustration among the Republican leaders that the administration has ignored repeated requests" for the IMF's operating budget and staff reviews of its policies.

GM

Gold in the short term has taken a beating. The U.S. has consumed the world and there is little left of it. Countries with vast means of production but no demand for product.They have currencies which cannot buy the materials needed to feed the machine.They are burdened with debt and obligated to pay it back with worthless currencies.Empty factories...no workers.They are skeletal. The U.S. may now start to feed on itself. There is a belief that the US does not need to trade with the world. Their economy can sustain itself,trading among their states. It would appear the wealth of the world is centralized there. Think about it. Are these the death throes of empire? Will it consume itself and if so how long will it take? If it does survive how long until other countries come looking for their piece of the pie. I think this is the fatal flaw of all great civilizations. Eygpt, Rome, Maya ,Aztec .
Well .. sleep tight and oh yea... GO Gold.

Golden & Silvery Barflies- I am going for an evening hike, so if you don't find anyone in the bar, just sit there a few minutes, hit the sleep button, someone will be along soon. Netcom seems stable now, but it kicked me off prematurely a few times earlier, if the lights go out that's what happened. Have fun.
-sam
KB&G
ICQ# 11998901

Brother Tom, I know he is just an accessory, but you
know, it's always nice to blame someone... I think
NGC ( Newmont Gold ) looks very interesting right now.
Check it out, if you wish...PMSP.

Gold in the short term has taken a beating. The U.S. has consumed the world and there is little left of it. Countries with vast means of production but no demand for product.They have currencies which cannot buy the materials needed to feed the machine.They are burdened with debt and obligated to pay it back with worthless currencies.Empty factories...no workers.They are skeletal. The U.S. may now start to feed on itself. There is a belief that the US does not need to trade with the world. Their economy can sustain itself,trading among their states. It would appear the wealth of the world is centralized there. Think about it. Are these the death throes of empire? Will it consume itself and if so how long will it take? If it does survive how long until other countries come looking for their piece of the pie. I think this is the fatal flaw of all great civilizations. Eygpt, Rome, Maya ,Aztec .
Well .. sleep tight and oh yea... GO Gold.

Brother Tom, I know he is just an accessory, but you
know, it's always nice to blame someone... I think
NGC ( Newmont Gold ) looks very interesting right now.
Check it out, if you wish...PMSP.

Those poor IMF boys. I wonder how the 7 of them get by on the interest on 10,000,000,000 dollars. We may have to pass the hat for them. Next thing you know, they'll be riding economy class and staying at Motel 6.

Those poor IMF boys. I wonder how the 7 of them get by on the interest on 10,000,000,000 dollars. We may have to pass the hat for them. Next thing you know, they'll be riding economy class and staying at Motel 6.

Second group strikes against GM, production shutdown could result

By Thursday, the strike at a Flint stamping plant that began June 5 already had led to layoffs affecting nearly 25,000 workers at eight assembly plants and 16 GM-owned parts plants from Canada to Mexico.

Jobs are the primary issue in both negotiations. The UAW fears GM may transfer work out of the plants or close them eventually

GM indicated Wednesday that it's considering moving production of its next generation of small cars to a low-wage country, such as Mexico, from its big Lordstown, Ohio, plant. The announcement, not coincidentally, came one day after the leak of a memo outlining GM's plans to double production in Mexico over the next decade.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.GM-Strike.html

ROTCLOL! My Mama taught me to accept apologies, but I always reserve the right to punch out some lights.........

I've tried both my ISPs ( internet service providers ) and still it is slow. US West is at fault for implementing a new compression scheme to keep from buying more equipment. Maybe the Kitco server is getting hammered too. Perhaps it is the whole internet.
Anyway.
That explains my triple post - others duplicates as well. We hit the submit your comment and nothing happens. I give it a minute ( okay, maybe 30 seconds ) and reluctantly click it again. Nada. I change to preview and click it yet again. After a while the preview window comes up. So I hit the submit button there. After a while it is sent and I eventually come back to the forum to find THREE posts. Two in single space from my earlier clicks and one double spaced from the preview. I changed NOTHING in the preview - just hit the button.
Back to the phase of the moon, alignment of planets and how many sunspots there are. Go figure! Maybe nothing is happening on TV tonight so everyone is on the Net. Just like the water pressure gauge of TV program popularity.

The world's current economic system is an inherently unstable system.
It is what the engineers call a positive feedback system. The
various economies are like a bunch of variously weighted balls
that have been tossed out on to a rubber sheet. The heaviest one
pulls the others in and the whole thing goes down.

The system requires constant tending and fine tuning. Any one
economy getting a little too strong has to be throttled back
before it starts to climb too fast, pulling in funds from the
slower ones and accelerating. Wait too long and it's out of
control.

Inflation has to be balanced against goods production, imports
against exports, interest outgo against tax income, and ad
infinitem. Take your hands off the controls and this plane will
NOT fly itself.

TRUE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM. IT IS DEFINITELY MORNING IN AMERIKA FOR PROGRESSIVES. Ya gotta luv it.

I was going to make mention about the many posts of one subject, that I wasted space with. But, thanks to others, I am not the only screw up eh!: ) : ) : )
Take Care.

Well, most of the world. There is still Europe.

Slowly Godzilla turned.....

Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...9:03PM...14951.10...-62.94...-0.42%

I'll bet a 5th of B&W Smirnoff they pump it back above 15000 for the close.

-EJ

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 9:14PM 14973.38 -40.66 -0.27%
Aug Gold in overnite market @ 289.20
Fox-Man

Send Contributions to the Chiapas and other progressive rebels in Mexico and save Anerican Jobs. Go Rebels Threaten GM investments and you serve real America. Love those Rebels!!

Would the US spend money to help Japan stay out of the tank or can the Japanese Reserve fund do it? THOUGHTS?

Silver stocks on the Comex fell more than 1/2 million oz in the most recent data. This fall takes Comex stocks to within 40K oz of a new all time low.

The unconfirmed runor of the BOJ gold buying is indeed very interesting and important if true.

KITCO seems to have slowed down which I assume is due to lurking viewers and postings. The multiple posts also suggestion a frustration with the wait.

I suspect at some point getting on KITCO will be by appointment only as I think we're just beginning to see things heat up.

What if the government of one of the nations decides that it needs to do something purely in its own interst, even if it hurts the other nations, even if by hurting the other nations it eventually hurts itself, because an explanation of subtle principles of economics is lost on the nation's people now suffering?
-EJ

I put this condition on the bet because ( as you are already aware ) you are correct. Japan would be absoutely stupid to not intervene. This is Friday, the end of the week. Japan does not want investors to have the weekend to consider the security of their investments in an already devestated market. Or do they? Perhaps Japan is ready to let the correctinon happen? This would require Japan to submit to the market forces. Will they fight it until it destroys them or will they just let it happen so they can begin to work on recovery? I hear a distant hissing sound, kinda like an inflated balloon that has a small hole in it!
- c

Egypt was conquered pilliaged and burned and doesnt belong on your list.
the other countries are however appropriate examples.

Knowing when to say when to a mutual fund

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Here's a little stress quiz. After a long day at work, when you're at home sorting through the bills and junk mail, you glimpse at your mutual fund company's quarterly report.

Good news at last, you think, tearing enthusiastically into the envelope, only to discover a truly lousy -- or, horror of horrors, negative -- growth rate.

"The first thing is don't panic," said Gail Vaz-Oxlade, a Toronto author and financial consultant.

"The last thing you want to do is crystallize the loss, and if it's likely that whatever it is you have is going to recover, this would not be the time to sell."


Mutual fund guru and author Gordon Pape was besieged with redemption questions in an Internet investment forum in the spring as precious metals and emerging market funds were stricken by the Asian financial flu.

Pape told investors to consider whether the sell-off was over, how much risk they were prepared to tolerate and how much of their portfolio was already in precious metals.

"I consider precious metals funds to be 'opportunity' investments," he wrote. "Unlike most mutual funds, I don't recommend you buy and hold these. Over the long term, their record is not good."
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Money-Monitor.html

Between Labor and Capitol/ instability of any sort on a general basis is the friend of Labor. Go instability and do some liberating from oppressive Capital!! Time is on our side today.

Between Labor and Capitol/ instability of any sort on a general basis is the friend of Labor. Go instability and do some liberating from oppressive Capital!! Time is on our side today.

Betweenj Labor and Capitol/ instability of any sort on a general basis is the friend of Labor. Go instability and do some liberating from oppressive Capital!! Time is on our side today.

Maybe I am wrong but the yen is still at 144.25, their market is stilldown and I havent seen any news .
Malaysia has hit new lows tonight and Sir Lanka is within 2 points of new lows.

spread em japan ...we want your savings and land ...else your yen is going down down.

Is it not obvious what game Rubin and his US banks are in....? They have the best trading programs and supercomputers so they make the rules. Anybody doesn't like it and their currency is going south...only a a world gold standard will eliminate this evil money-changing from .

Japan is so far down it's not funny. US or Japanese spending
either one won't do it. First they need to understand the
problem. Their rates are fantastically too low to keep any
money in the country. Supporting the yen without do some
other radical changes is like trying to fill a seive.

Stphane CEAUX-DUTHEIL Dow-Jones analysis I did a fast translation.This was written wednesday morning The translation is not guaranteed ANALYZE DOW-JONES DOW-JONES COMES BACK TO ITS LATERAL BAND After having made a short excursion below 8900 points ( test intra-week of the weekly moving average, blue arrow on the graph ) , Dow-Jones came back to his side band ( weekly closing ) located between 8900 and 9250 points. This lateralization has lasted now for 9 weeks and causes a contraction of the bands of Bollinger ( see black arrows on the graph ) . This is announcing a strong return to volatility between now and the next few weeks in the worst case
( 3 or 4 maximun ) . In theory it misses a last upward leg which should
carry Dow-Jones towards 9500 points. But it is not a condition absolutely
necessary. It always should be noted a very beautiful weekly divergence ( which is perfectly effective now ) between indicator MACD and Dow-Jones ( see graphics blue lines turquoises ) this shows the current weakness of the american stock market and that probably an important movement of correction is preparing. It is always advisable to observe if levels 8900 or 9250 is crossed at the end of the week to
anticipate the future trend of the american stock market. My opinion is always reserved on the evolution of the american stock market for the mid-term. http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/ANALYSE3.HTM

Just when you see the desert around the pyramids you can't help but wonder how they supported their civilization. How far away did they have to control to bring in food?Apparently it may not have been desert there when the civilization started. I don't have a lot of depth here. I just imagine too much. I still can't imagine 30,000 dollar an ounce gold.You?

Any nation acting on it's own can pull the whole thing down
unless the rest of the system acts to isolate it.

including the loser. C'mon! Any takers?

There's plenty of cash in the Postal fund to keep the Nikkei up. I do not think letting it drop below the point where the banks turn turtle is a move that they can make deliberately, any more than Greenspan can say, "Look, you dumb sh*ts. Gillette ain't worth 40:1. Ok? You'll see bats fly out of my butt before you see your money again!"

He just can't say that, even tho it's true, because Clinton's watch is not over yet. And the Japanese need to do everything possible to protect their politicians as well. The question is not whether they will try, but whether they can keep it up. I say they can.

-EJ

A gold world standard would at least be a world standard.

GM

The Aussie Dollar has reversed losses and is trading up 39 cents in globex trading. Since the A$ tends to move somewhat with the price of Gold, there may be something behind Vronsky's rumour.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980611/japan_read_1.html

simple logic.
Jappas have bought 500 tons ..time to go get an ounce or two perhaps?

What if the Japanese deliberately created a crisis such as now, so that they could either sell their US T Bonds or buy gold? The US appears to be doing nothing to help them. The Japanese can now do as they please without the wrath of the US under the guise of "we had to do it to save our economy, you understand" Just a thought.....

I kind of think if gold holds thru the evening, we may see
some pretty good buying when the market opens in LOndon and
the gnomes come back alive

http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-4827808

seems to not produced salubrious effects on the Nikkei.
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...9:52PM...14861.24...-152.80...-1.02%

Headed back down but still no takers on the B&W Smirnoff.

-EJ

I might wait to see prices LOOK like someone has bought
500 tons instead of just a rumor of it.

I can only say that when, not if but when, the US economy melts, and it will melt, your physical gold will pay off your mortgage and taxes and you will be one of the lucky few to have REAL property.

as for Egypt, what few know is that it started out as an association of independent city-states which cooperated in a form of parlamentary democracy in which each city state was represented by a local cheiftain, himself holding authority by virtue of his wisdom and statesmanship. historical egypt arose from increasing militarization in which finally one chieftain coerced and conquered the rest into appeasement, and this chieftain became the first Pharoah. Nonetheless, the democracy continued until foreign invasions, and the foreign adopted Pharoahs turned the democracy into a beaurocracy. A good example of the "historical inevitability of the decline of democracy" thru militarization, centralization of power, and increasing socialism. :- )

The dollar is the world's reserve currency and the demand for dollars
is increasing because of the financial distress in Asia. A rising
demand to hold money, all other things being equal, leads to
falling prices, unless the money supply is increased to accomodate the
increased demand for cash.

The real problem, accordingly, is not Japanese intransigence but
a too stingy U.S. monetary policy. The evidence is the soaring dollar
exchange rate, high real U.S. rates and a flat U.S. yeild curve. The
solution is for the Fed to reduce U.S. short rates and steepen the
yeild curve. The resulting increased supply of dollars will satisfy the demand for cash and allow the Asian currencies to stabilize against the
dollar. The result would be Asian capital staying home rather than
fleeing for the perceived safety of the U.S. and lower Asian interest
rates. Commodity prices would also stop falling.

Maybe, but it kind of looks like shooting yourself in the
head to collect on your health insurance.

That is besides taking up the" Will the Nikki hold the line at 15000 bet?" ( Humour only ) I don't have any idea if they can hold the line, but, may they fight the good fight. Sometimes a battle like this could turn the tide. It happens in the movies anyhow. Goodnite. Watch out for the ninja warriors on the front lawn. My experience in gold has taught me that de nile is not just a river in Eygpt. Go Gold. Go to bed!

P.S. the nile valley was a net exporter of grains and other foodstuffs.

Go gold! Go Gold!!! I say : GO GOLD!!!
and forgive me for what it means to millions of others who have none.

MAJOR US EQUITY COLLAPSE of 30-50% FROM BULL MARKET HIGHS BY NOVEMBER, 1998! DOW is beginning to discount it already!

GM

They feed on each other. Let's not play the rumour game. If the REAL Vronsky had posted that item about the Japanese buy, he would have supplied a confirmatory link by now. Remember, it's cruel to pull the wings off a Goldbug. Instant Karma..

IMNSHO this site is a pretty good synopsis:
http://www.militia-watchdog.org/freemen.htm
and for a refresher on the trial
http://headlines.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/US/Montana_Freemen_Trial/
now back to our regularly scheduled programming
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and ways to goose their values.

As we have observed earlier today, Rubin has already assured us of that fact. Instead, the US must be prepared for Japan to sell US Debt. I think at this point it is "every nation for itself." We all know what is going to happen. We can even "feel it" coming. The object now is to BE PREPARED. The nations and individuals who are most prepared win. The object of this game is not "who does the most things right," but "who will make the fewest mistakes." I am positioned and intend to stay in the latter catagory. As soon as the doller weakens ( the international currency facade ) , or in other words, as soon as gold becomes scarce, I expect we will be entering a pre-war condition. Iran, Pakistan, India, and China are already mobilizing. It will be interesting to see who joins the race, who sides with who. Question being, will the US finance NATO/UN, or will it squander whatever it can to mobilize itself? I think the US realizes that a militarily secure Japan is more valuable in these times than an economically sound one, recognizing that South China Sea Islands, Taiwan, and Korea will be the first potential casualties.

Am I right? Who knows, I only see a little part of the world - things happen every day that I never expected, but this is my best guess. But if you subscribe to even part of what I am suggesting, think of all the golden implications.

- c

Absolutely.

who is this Archie guy?

EXCELLENT POST, MEIN HERR! It's the dollar, stupid!! Just lower the discount rate and out-inflate Japan! It's time for some competitive inflation, AG! : ) SAVE THE PLANET!! LOWER RATES NOW!! IT'S THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THIS MESS!!

Fox-Man

Asian Intra-Day Charts In SLOOOW-MOTION

Watch Asian Contagion melt away stock values in the SLOOOW-MOTION of Intra-Day Charts.

See the Nikkei, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore Indices -

Remember it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner/asian_id_charts.html

suggestion and go to bed. If Vronsky's right about 500 tons of Japan gold, his credibility will go through the roof.

By the way, is the Seoul Composite gonna go to zero or what? Sheesh.
-EJ

South Korea...Seoul Composite...^KS11...10:04PM...308.63...-20.07...6.11%

When I win, I'll definately share the winnings with all. THE NIKKEI IS GOING DOWN!!!
- c

- c

that first post about Japan buying gold had ID of 426220. the last post has an ID of 427357. It appears the Japan buying Gold vronsky is a fake?

I love you brother. You are a true individual---= America!!!!!

it won't help. Things are so far out of whack it's gotta blow.

All asian markets down again, will take a huge effort by DOW to stagger on tomorrow...I think the time is ripe. The bloated abcess that is the American debt bubble is ready to spew it's puss forth throughout the world and the illusion will wiped from the eyes of the world's people.
America you're time is up...SELL, SELL, SELL, BUY, BUY, BUY.

Gollum: Your servo system analogy is appropriate. We do have, on our hands, a positive feedback system. My involvement with servos goes back a few days and there may have been some changes in the interim but, I don't think it's possible to build a stable feedback system with only positive feedback.

When attempted, I believe the end result is what we once called, in olden times, an oscillator. Nowadays I suppose it would be a pulse code modulated oscillator. Or some such.

Nonetheless, easy credit has formed much of the basis for this economic oscillator. Easy money with no negative connotation. "Too big to fail". And a host of other apologetics. Now the big money servo is oscillating wildly ..... and in a moment or two, I believe a wheel will come off.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/markets_pr_2.html

No follow up to your post regarding the massive Japanese gold buy - was it a sick joke???

General Motors Workers Idled by Strike, Up to 25,000

We can make ship-to address delivery arrangements by email. Your delivery to me, that is ; )

One final look before turning in tells me I might need to whack the Nikkei-meter a coupla times in the morning. It's been stuck on 14865.98 for over an hour.

G'Nite.

-EJ

Yup. It goes up til it can't go up no more then it goes down
til it can't go down no more, etc.

There is also a human pilot at the controls who has been given
some wrong information about how the controls work. When he
pulls back on the stick and the nose goes down, he doesn't
think to himself. "hmmm, that doesn't work". No, he thinks
"Gosh, I must not have pulled back hard enough".

Yeah, i want to see how they figure out who gets to eat and who don't, the gold will be real interesting but now the food, that's where it'll get reallllllll interesting.

Before composing posts on this topic, I suggest reading the Constitution and some Supreme Court cases. An excellent book on the subject is The Taxing Power. Unfortunately, out of print. But, worth finding for its clarity and breadth.

On Property Tax: Does anyone read the 5th Amendment ? The power to tax is a taking, destroying power. Federal tax on property is prohibited by the 5th Amendment.

On Capitation Tax: prohibited by the Constitution. The provision for apportionment was specifically written into the Constitution to prevent a head tax by the federal government.

On Indirect Tax: there is no such thing. There are excise taxes authorized by the Constitution. One of the first tax cases involved an excise tax on carriages. The distinguishing feature of an excise tax is that its imposition is tied to an event. So it is the purchase or sale of the carriage that is taxed, not the carriage itself. Previously, whether or not an excise tax was Constitutional depended on whether or not such a tax had been imposed in England or in the Colonies prior to the Constitution. This is still the rule, but with the usual stretching so that revenue is not delayed for "the important engagements of the government". ( What are they, pray tell ? ) There is no rhyme or reason to what was an excise in Merry Olde England. If it was collected by the excise board, it was an excise. That's all the sense there is to it. Many state court decisions are totally confused about excise taxation.

Taxation of Rights or their exercise: is prohibited by the Constitution. Many state excise taxes violate this. Many states violate this with licensing requirments. But, since no one bothers to contest the matter with an informed brief, they keep collecting.

Income: is gain or profit. The Supreme Court has stated this about a hundred times, I guess.

FICA and Medicare are a contribution. You contribute if you are in "covered employment". Your state legislature ultimately defines "covered employment" in your state by agreeing to federal terms for grants of welfare and unemployment compensation funding. This contribution is collected at the source. The employee part of this has never been ruled on really.

But, you say, how do they collect this and that tax ? Well, if you don't own something, the protection of the 5th Amendment is somewhat diluted, wouldn't you say ? Own means you hold absolute title. Hardly any Americans have absolute title to their land and houses or to their vehicles. And you do not have absolute title to the Federal Reserve Notes you USE and your employer USES to compensate you. On top of this is the fact the attorneys are officers of the Court and go along to get along, flushing your rights while you pay them. The ignorant are easily abused of their rights and property. The government and the law presume that you know the law. [ If someone approaches saying, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you, grab your wallet and run. Not many follow this advice. They stay and talk and lose. Not many reflect on what kind of help the IRS is likely to give with its bulletins, forms, and instructions before they pick them up and start following instructions to send in money. If you ask someone in government a question about the law, you are going to get the government's side of it. Pure and simple from local to national. ] If enough Americans understood this basic fact and realized an attorney is only obliged to give you his opinion of the law as an officer of the Court, there would be a demand that would shake the rafters for clarity and simplicity and efficiency and the restoration of the common law.

Gold and silver coin for money are a whole lot more important for your rights to be secured by the Constitutions of the federal and state governments than they are for your pocketbook. Because you can pay debt with them and own things bought with them. Gold and silver coin are Freedom. Paper is Slavery. The federal government is governing by necessity of emergency and has been since 1933 when the greenbacks were issued for the people to USE. The nice words for this are constitutional dictatorship. Either we restore the constitution and cancel the emergency and the dictatorship or lose the constitutional part and have just plain dictatorship. A dictatorship of the President and Congress in collusion or simply a dictatorship of the Commander In Chief. The flaw in the Constitution that allows the other two branches to pack a Court that does not accommodate has brought us to this pass.

This machine uses no Microsoft Hardware, no Microsoft Operating System and no Microsoft Browser but I do admit to using and liking Microsoft Office {and will upgrade to Office 98}.
HIGHRISE - ignore Sam - he is just one of the pagans who has not yet seen the light. Your 8500 should do fine. It really was easy with my 9600 and you have basically the same breed of machine and OS. I'm running OS 8.1 for the savings on my hard drive space. With 32 bit HFSplus addressing on my 4GB drive, teeny tiny 350-byte files only take a 2K block. With the old 16-bit HFS addressing they take a 64K chunk. When FWB's HDT formatter catches up with 8.1 these tiny files will only take 512 byte blocks. My font folder with 2,987 items takes 191.7MB on one 4GB drive under 16-bit HFS and the same folder copied to my other 4GB drive only takes 61.3MB under 32-bit HFS+. {I'm waiting for the HDT upgrade to format the 2nd drive.}
AURATOR and his 68K machine are another story. One day I must get my several year old Quadra 840AV hooked up to the Net and ICQ too. If for no other reason than to experiment with ICQ and other goodies on a 68K Mac ( though I could try it with my 1988 SE - but that would be work}.

When it deals with money, ALWAYS RERST ASSURED I am deadly serious. An impeccable source has informed me this afternoon the Nippons have just purchased 400 tonnes of gold. Needless to say you all know many analysts at the golden-eagle website have been posting for many months that the Nippons will eventually and inevitably trade their US T-Bond fiat paper for intrinsic valued gold. Therefore, there should be NO surprise.

Considering the plight of the Japanese economy, it is not hard to hard understand the motives of the BOJ. THEY HAVE NO OTHER ALTERNATIVE.

This is one reason that I have been travelling to New Zealand, to build a base there, where disruptions due to the Year 2000 logic bomb are less likely to be life threatening. For one thing, it will be summer in New
Zealand in January 2000. One won't freeze even if the electricity goes off and the fuel trucks don't run. That's not to pretend that there will be no problems down under. As University of Queensland professor of computer sciences, Dr. Paul Bailes, states, "WIDESPREAD computer failure because of the millennium bug is unavoidable..." But the property we have found in New Zealand is an antidote to a lot of misery. To see what I mean, pick up a copy of the May/June 1998 issue of Departures magazine. These connoisseurs
of "Life At Its Best" have a feature on our Wharekauhau property "a huge sheep farm in New Zealand - set against a landscape of Arcadian beauty." As the article points out, it is quite possible to live off the land there and live well. "The four-course dinners at Wharekauhau always reflect the farm - bold and adventurous. The eggs are laid in the henhouse, the herbs and vegetables grown in the garden, the fish caught by Andrews in Paliser Bay. The land gives up a lot." With 20,000 sheep in addition to thousands of
cattle fattening on natural grass and the mountains bounding with deer, no one is going to starve there during a temporary lapse of civilization. ( I should point that the re-development of Wharekauhau has been done in partnership with numerous Strategic Investment readers who accompanied me on various trips to New Zealand. Those who see it fall in love with it. Cond Nast Traveller, the magazine that advertises itself as "Truth in Travel" rates our place as one of "Hot Spots" in the world for 1998. As proud and grateful as I am for that honor, I suspect our little piece of New Zealand will be even more beautiful in the year 2000.

"Congress should prepare a very simple flat-tax backup system, and the IRS should be ready to implement it if they miss the Y2K deadline....Clearly, now is the time to prepare for systems failure at the IRS." I would not want to be standing in line in the rubble of Y2K meltdown in November 2000, trying to gain a refund for overpayment of 1999 income taxes.

While the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand businesses are preparing better to avoid the worst of the Y2K miseries, Y2K costs in the United States are likely to be a disproportionately high share of the total world cost. The reason: more than a trillion of the expected Y2K costs could come as the result of lawsuits. The U.S. specializes in rampant litigation. Expect it to begin next year and drag on well into the new century. Lloyds of London has been told that "they should anticipate paying out upwards of $800 billion to $1 trillion in litigation expenses." Little wonder that Ed Yardini, chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and once one of Wall Street's foremost bulls, places the odds of Y2K causing a global recession at 60%. He sees the U.S. economy shrinking by $300 billion. Australian Y2K expert, Professor Paul Bailes is more bearish. He says that the repercussion of "unavoidable" Y2K dislocations will include "a 1930s-style depression."

Other leading economies that appear to be poorly prepared for the Y2K logic bomb are France and Germany

According to Bob Hayward, vice-president of Gartner Research Group, will be the Asian economies already reeling from last year's debt collapse.The incompetence of the Japanese response to the year 2000 threat raises the prospect that Japan will suffer catastrophic financial collapse in January 2000.

The end of the future?
Obviously, anything along these lines would have dire consequences for many stocks. The bull market will probably come to an end, with deflationary consequences. The question is when? The answer is that the recession will probably begin before the year 2000, and the stock market may react even before the recession is obvious. A significant transfer of wealth is likely to those who were ready for the change at the expense of those who do not prepare. There could be other far-reaching changes as well. One possibility,
forecast by medieval historian, Jean Gimpel, in The End of the Future: The Waning of the High-Tech World, is reversion to a simpler system, less dependent upon high tech. I can see that many would be tempted to share Gimpel's reaction against technology in the wake of a Y2K disaster. But I doubt a turn against technology would carry the day. It would imply impoverishment and starvation to too many people.
Another possibility, which I believe the more likely, is the breakdown of brittle, command and control systems inherited from the Industrial Age. I would expect to a severe Y2K crisis to precipitate a more rapid emergence of new arrangements that more compatible with the organizational imperatives of Information Technology. If they are retained intact, the massive, command and control systems inherited from the Industrial Age will be recurringly vulnerable to "Logic Bombs," accidental or not. New, decentralized systems must emerge with more dispersed and therefore, more secure capabilities. As we will explore in a future installment of "Thinking Outside the Box," it is not impossible that Y2K tribulations could also precipitate a significant loss of freedom in the world. In the words of Walt Lamphere, "It is likely, not imaginative thinking, that once the general public comes to understand the potential immensity of the loss to their own financial situation due to the "glitch" of the Y2K, the run for their funds will occur. Who will stop
them? Who will prevent them? The Government may well be forced to close the banks. And the military could be the agent of the worst repression this country might ever experience."
It is time to pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Every person that begins to understand the enormity of the disaster looming on the horizon will contribute to growing awareness. But, who will leave his/her money in the bank, when it may be impossible to get your money the next day, or next week. Who will not join the rush? Will you leave your money in your bank if there is more than a good chance you will not have access to it, due to computer lockup?"
-Walt Lamphere

I looked for you on icq but, the had so damn many squirrels runnin' rond' it said screw you. So I don't know how I'd find you in there, I'm running a little 233 pII with 64k and a 4.1 HD works, but I think I'll move up to 128k.

I give up for tonight. Lot's of trafiic on the way in and
out of Kitco tonight. See ya.

Like I have said, Armstrong is brilliant but I know he was mega short silver at $4.50 and it went to $7.80.
What do we have here? One, Rubin and Greenspan are at odds. Cocky Rubin might get his for a change as today's remarks shook up U. S. markets. I am sure he did not expect this. A very good friend of mine has a friend at the Fed. He said the Treasury and and the Fed were at odds about the dollar, etc. That was very apparent, publicly , as the past two days of Greenspan and Rubin comments were very much at odds. Because of our behind the scenes knowledge, this was very apparent.
Other tidbit of interest. All the info we have and several sources tell us that the Japanese bought 400 tonnes of gold ( via the Swiss ) . This is a big deal as the Asians have the reserves to buy much more.
Normally, we would be jumping up and down as this changes the central bank buying and selling stats. The hedge funds must have taken them out and exhausted their buying so we tanked today. You are right that the risks are now much more substantial than before and this is very disturbing, especially having the understanding a central bank may have been a big buyer. Your downside targets cannot be ruled out. A quick reversal in gold is needed here or it could be a long summer.
Perhaps, American arrogance will finally come under scrutiny and Hashimoto's threat to buy gold instead of U. S. Treasuries is finally becoming a reality.

http://hotfiles.zdnet.com/cgi-bin/texis/swlib/hotfiles/info.html?fcode=000MMY

Two days ago, Gold hit $US 300 resistance. Now, it

has taken out $US 290 support. Over the same period

of time, the Dow has fallen nearly 300 points and

U.S. long bond yields have hit record lows.

And, of course, the Dollar has exploded upwards,

hitting record highs against the Canadian Dollar

and SA Rand ( and near record highs against the Aussie Dollar ) .

Ever since the Gold price turned around, the U.S.

stock and bond markets have been accelerating, in

OPPOSITE directions. Asia is being literally gutted

of liquid capital. As the Japanese

Yen plummets, the pressure on China to devalue its

currency becomes greater. Seeing this, the Hong Kong

market is crashing like a rock as capital flees into $US.

Outside Europe, everybody in the world wants to be in

Dollars. They don't want producer goods, consumer goods,

physical assets, or even stocks and shares. They want

DOLLARS - cash and Treasury debt - and NOTHING else.

We are approaching a climax here. So far, the damage today is

not as bad as might have been expected, with Hong Kong

not down much and Singapore actually gaining ground. However, the Nikkei

in Japan is now back under 15,000 while South Korea is down

over 5.1% and the Phillippines down about 4.6%.

If the rest of the world outside Europe has thrown "diversification"

to the winds to concentrate all their attention on the Dollar

and Treasury debt, would you call that a "bubble" being blown?

Latest US/A Dollar Gold comparison charts and foreign

currency Gold charts are up at The Privateer website.

http://homepages.together.net/~ejmiller/
He trades his own signals. His neural net just gave a
buy signal for gold. Caution: this gold neural net is new to his site, and does not have much of a track record yet.

Are you affiliated with militia-watch ?
Do you know the sponsors of this organization ?
Do you guarantee the truth and accuracy of the information to which you directed people ?
Have you read the Uniform Commercial Code ? If not, how could you possibly have an informed opinion about the financial instruments in question ? Do you think Alan Greenspan should be on trial with the men in Montana ?
If an officer of government does not uphold the oath of office and does not respond to lawful process to answer allegations, why should not that officer have a lien placed on the bond he posted to fulfill his oath and duties in public office ? These are basic tools for maintaining accountability in government.

Do you want Constitutional government like the Montana farmers or just to sit in the woods with a rifle ?

JP; Hope you are right about an upcoming stock market collapse, although I doubt it. I would like to ride that bounce from Dow 6000 to Dow 7500.

If Japan bought, who sold? Was it paper or physical?

crazytimes: I think it was you that posted the latest from FV. Apparently they also think Japan was a big gold buyer -- as does Vronsky. The Japanese are long term value buyers like WB, even if they have their shortcomings. Apparently the gold shorts swamped the longs anyway today. FV etal now is getting bearish for gold, and expects a sudden gold reversal or a bearish summer. In a contrary sort of way, this could be bullish for gold.

All: I have some technical info -- my home homegrown buy indicator just went positive on the NYSE and the sp-500. Negative volume index also has been going up on both of these indices as well. My buy/sell indicator is based on price/volume changes, and is usually positive only 2-3x per year. Nasdaq and DJ-30 did not have a buy.

I agree that other indicators -- breadth, % new highs 2sd above mean, etc. are not looking good. But -- if you are fleeing worse markets, you may not care to check all that carefully. And look how bullish the US dollar is -- not what you expect in a bear US equities market.

Lastly, the globex is bullish right now for the US markets.

So -- how do I read this? We are about to have a short-term rally in the US markets. The US markets will not crash in the next few days, and the bubble continues. If so, this may soon be short term bullish for precious metals. All depends on whether the SEAsian situation starts to settle down.

I would appreciate knowing the background information on the milita-watch organization, and the source of funding for this militia-watch.

I consider the Montana Freemen to be brave men. They sure as hell are not sitting in the woods with a rifle eh!
Thanks....Take Care

you put salt on them on they go away. One time this oooold prospector I run into in the bush in MT, said he just came from up from AZ. So we got to talkin an I said didn't they have lot'sa rattlers down there and he said yeah, real onery ones, said he had yet to see a sidewinder wasn't commin for him as soon as he saw him.

Well we chatted on, an I said seein how's he'd just been back in the Selway country as had he seen any back there as I had heard there was a lot. He said yeah there was but they was friendly ones an was generally tryin to get out of the way, he said he found out if you start eatin em they clear out real fast.

Winston that could be an interesting site.