Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:03 - ID#410114)
Japanese Pissed at Clinton
I just talked to a Japanese friend of mine and asked what Japanese public opinion was of clinton. I was fishing for somthing on Monica but instead heard that clinton's failure to stop in Japan before traveling on to China has everyone mad. Clinton's failure to stop in Tokyo before personally getting the views of the Japanese gov't is unusual and considered by the Japanese public to be an insult. I don't know what the Japanese gov'ts view is.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:05 - ID#242325)
JP: just to set the record straight -- I do believe the US stock market is going down big time. I just doubt that it will do so as quickly as you think

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:11 - ID#335190)
Tribe's-How many of them are sitting in Jail @ FREEDOM! until the rubber hits the road EH!
Left, Right and Off the Spectrum

Some of these people are a little nuts, but I wont hold that against them.

This is a small site, but it has greatness potential. It explains a personal perspective of anarchy in its simplest forms. Excellent.

..............Anti European Union
This is a page from some Brits who are not pleased with the European Union concept.

................Australian Liberalism
This is a pretty page with nifty links to liberal stuff, news, events, and key figures.

..................Cato Institute
Libertarian University, pretty much. Learn all about this stuff, here. "Advancing Civil Society." Blah.

Conservative GenX. No lie. I am not joking. This is real and I am scared despite the spiffy layout and nice design. Few concepts in life could be more heinous than "Reagan Youth", but this is really silly.

..................China: Free WEI JINGSHENG
Yikes, you can write to free political prisonors in China here. Check this out!

.................Conservative Corner
A text based site collection of conservative subject essays and journals.

...................Conservative Link
"Common sense, traditional values and pride in our American heritage." They have HotWired listed. Hmmmm.

.....................Critiques Of Libertarianism
Some exceptional essays disecting libertarianism and anarcho-capitalism.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:16 - ID#410114)
Japan buying gold
I hope it means something. All the gold sold in the past 18 years has been bought by somebody and the price still is dropping.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:16 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:19 - ID#244446)
re: Japanese gold purchases
The Japanese CB might be buying gold in order to superficially reduce their trade surplus. If they bought the gold from the US it would reduce our trade deficit with them. That would conceal the real extent of the trade effects of the cheap yen.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:26 - ID#410114)
Japanese gold buying

In the 1980's Tiawan talked about doing that and the US gov't put a crimp on it real fast.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:33 - ID#57232)
Sounds plausible
Winston: I like your reasoning. There is another one. The Japanese have been selling US treasuries in exchange for other assets. What better asset for the US to sell to Japan than gold itself. The Japanese have their troubles, but they may not need to raise cash all the time. Lets just hope this is gold that the FED bought with the strong US dollar, and secreted somewhere. No one seems to want auditors to go to Fort Knox and determine how much gold is really there.

If the Japanese are buying gold, it may be because much of the Japanese financial crisis is perceived to be behind them. I will feel more comfortable about that opinion when the Chinese Yuan has been devalued at least 10%, and Japan sticks to 15,000 on the Nikkei. Still waiting to hear the announcements about all the banks that need to close.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:37 - ID#93232)
gold moves
Given the low prices of commodities, particularly oil, should we hold our breath waiting for a jump in gold? Forecasts for oil prices, traditionally linked to gold, are flat into 1999. I've got to think that sooner or later, commodities in general will rebound, but this seems to be a ways off ( next year ) .

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:39 - ID#384350)
JTF, US Dollar; Tales of Yankee Power
At the time of the Mexican Crisis, everyone was caught by surprise. Rubin needed to bailout some of his buddies in the East Coast banking circle who had made bad loans there. So he just had the Fed print up $50 Billion loan to the USG who then loaned it to the Mexicans to do whatever Mexicans do with $50 Billion.

This action created into existence an extra $50 Billion in cash that was literally dumped upon the global market. An immediate excess of supply of Dollars made them less valuable.

In contrast to the Asian Crisis. These Asians countries Love ( d ) Leverage; they couldn't get enough of it. Now, these Asians found out that they could borrow in their own currencies at a given interest rate OR they could borrow in US Dollars at a lower rate of interest. Well since their currencies were pegged to the US Dollar, they didn't see any risk in taking out these Short Term Dollar loans.

Then something happened. These countries started running current account deficits. This coupled with foreign denominated debt is a Big No No. So someone who knew what was going on saw these countries as ripe for the picking and started speculating in the forex markets, putting pressure on these currencies. The foreign denominated loans were called in or not renewed and there was a mad dash to convert these Dollar loans into local loans and to use the newly created local currency to buy dollars to pay off the old loans. Supply and Demand there was too much of the local currency chasing a fixed amount of dollars. These loans couldn't be repaid; the Asians were trapped; their currencies plummeted, and the dollar soared in these currencies.

In the meantime, the US has done a good job marketing itself as a so-called "safe-haven" and is relying on foreign capital inflows to keep its currency from going straight down the crapper. The US is running a massive trade deficit, and much of its sovereign debt is held by foreigners, although this debt is Dollar denominated. By being dollar denominated, The US won't find itself in a trap of trying to repay 10 for 11, like them Asians. However, the dollar is still in a very precarious situation as to what will happen when people start trying to sell dollars in earnest, for foreign currency, gold, or other tangible assets.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:43 - ID#57232)
strat: The comex spot commodity index will probably bottom at 200 in the next 3-6 months. Oil may bottom also if a few producers get knocked offline by the low prices. Then things will start to look long term bullish for gold. Until then it is short term buy on dips, sell on peaks for gold, unless you are a trader. But keep most of your powder dry.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:46 - ID#411163)
Korea-the blood is still running
I have South Korea down 6.36% right now and Japan just under the 15,000
mark. It is my belief that this blood letting will destroy the worlds
economy. Gold will probably go lower but when it takes off, few will
have the luck to get back on the train-or the balls either.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:47 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- logging off
Gianni Dioro: Thanks for explaining the SEAsian crisis in the context of the 1994 Mexican crisis. Looks like the US has been wiser this time -- short term anyway. If I understand what is happening, your comments are generally bullish for the US dollar until SEAsia gets back on its feet.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:48 - ID#401460)

Thanks, for the answer / info, I will try later.


PS: I think we are in for a long hard ride with this Gold. Oil and other commodities are really depressed and as the world grinds to a stop they will fall even farther. Of course they are trying awful hard to get a war going.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 00:49 - ID#384350)
JTF, Doller Power
I might add that the Dollar came out of its depressed state right when the Mexicans mustered up enough foreign confidence to float their own $50 Billion loan and repaid the $50 Billion to the USG.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:07 - ID#401460)
Gianni Dioro__A

That 50 Billion that paid the US back, came from the IMF, the US still owes the IMF 50 Billion for that ..Clinton / Ruben shell game.
I think the 50 Bllion went to the bankers involved in Mexico - Goldman sachs and the Boys, you know.

They have never really paid it back.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:10 - ID#285392)
Armstrong generally refers to panic cycles in the context of wild swings in a market. I don't believe he has given a specific definition for them.

Paul Gold__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:11 - ID#21484)
DROOY Information
At you will find daily updates on Durban Roodepoort Deep's share prices on both NASDAQ and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as well as the US$/SA Rand exchange rate and the JSE gold index.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:17 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Earl: The artificial sweeteners, beets and corn all compete with sugar in the sweetener mkt. Corn's at a multi-year low at the moment, so my money says corn syrup is, too. Yup, the sugar situation is mighty confusing -- and tempting too; last time I was at the nursery, dirt cost more. May buy some yet. Just a little nervous buying something I know nada about.

HighRise & Silverbaron: Thx. 'Twar me posted the Prophet Data site. Silverbaron's right though about their charts: You do have to use some care when interpreting the graphs as the prices are back-adjusted ( see for Prophet's definition ) . But I believe that's true of all nice historical graphs based on contract ( vs. spot ) prices. Otherwise, you'd get all kinds of discontinuities when you roll over to the front month.


Disclaimer: I ain't no Prophet Data shill. Just a reasonably satisfied customer. For the price you pay, their data is as clean as it comes, IMO. However, I have found mistakes, and they are none too quick in repairing them. I fact, on one mistake in particular, I just plain flat-out gave up even trying to get them to correct it, they were so disinterested -- or so busy, one. The only thing that does seem to work unequivocally in getting them to patch-up the bad spots in their data is bad-mouthing them on usenet. There . . . no shill would say that now, would he? OTOH, have you ever tried to put together a 60MB real-world data set that was perfectly pristine? Can't be done.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:23 - ID#384350)
JTF, The Buck
The way I see it the US bailed out the mexicans with freshly created dollars.

As opposed to the US screwing asia with dollar denominated loans, and now they are trying to take gold out of the countries, buy up industry at wholesale prices, allow Internationals into asian markets, etc.

The US hasn't spent any serious money trying to bail out asia, and seems rather content in seeing Asia fall, as long as the US doesn't get hit by contagion.

I remember when the Yen was around 118 to the dollar and I think it was Barshefsky saying something like, "We're not going to allow Japan to use a weak Yen so as to export its way out of a recession at American expense." You don't hear that kind of talk anymore, nor do you hear Rubin talking about intervening to support the Yen. I think US officials are scared of what would happen to the dollar once sentiment changes relating to whether or not there is any value in US paper.

In my earlier post I said US sovereign debt is dollar denominated. However, there is also the Tremendous Yen-carry trade where people borrow in yen, exchange the yen for foreign currency like dollars, and buy US treasuries with the proceeds. This is sort of a debt trap that might be sprung on the US dollar, as a good deal of US Bonds and Shares have been purchased with the proceeds of Yen-denominated loans, albeit at 1-2%.

I really wonder if there are certain individuals in the US and Japan who have knowledge over interest rate movements in these 2 countries, and are using the Yen-carry trade to their advantage. I even wonder if some people have borrowed Yen and are hoping for a total collapse of the Yen so that they won't have to repay their loans.

In summary, I don't necessarily think it's a question of the Dollar being strong until Asia regains its footing, although there might be something there. I think it's a matter of confidence. The US is putting up an illusion. It is an emporor without any clothes. The US trade deficit, the Euro if it establishes itself, the Yen-Carry trade will all lead to the dollars downfall. There may be some "flight to perceived quality" first, but ultimately I see the dollar losing a lot of its value.

Going for a walk in the Park

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:23 - ID#401460)
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes)

Thanks for the URLs and Charts.

They are rather discouraging, Gold in a down slope slide for a long time and CRB and commodities can go much lower. Scares me.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:34 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
HighRise: You're welcome. It does look bleak, but I do have faith in the yellow . . . it'll just take time . . . maybe more than I got ( is what worries me ) . Do check out Yardeni's graphs, too, as a check on Prophet whenever things look fishy. Don't know if Yardeni has all the commodities, but he has the major ones, at least . . . and some of his charts go way back, too. ( I like your posts, HighRise. They've been very helpful to me at times. So I'm real glad to give 'ya something back that you find useful. )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:41 - ID#401460)

SHANGHAI, June 12 ( Reuters ) - China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, intervened on Friday to support the Chinese yuan at above the 8.2800 level against the U.S. dollar on the national foreign exchange market, dealers said.

Bank of China has also been a frequent seller of U.S. Treasury bills, fueling speculation that the bank may be using some dollar reserves to support the yen, the dealers said.


Thanks Ron, I am not sure I have that much time this rate Yr 2020 ???

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:50 - ID#401460)
Commodities Inflation and stuff like that.

I don't know about where you people live but around here we are pumping gas, nailing 2x4's, buyin and selklin more stuff than you can keep track of. We have a 2.3 % unemployment rate.
And nothing is getting any cheaper - I don't care what they say.

If this deflation and economic crash is for real, there will be lot of people who are going to fall pretty hard.

It looks like the crash is over for this week, unless something happens in the next couple of hours.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:52 - ID#401460)

S&P 500 SEP98 1109.00 +540

Good Night


Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:58 - ID#384350)
JTF, Liquidity Squeeze
Highrise, I was under the impression that the US got its money back from that mexican loan.

And in a related matter, it looks like we are starting to see the beginning of a liquidity squeeze in the western world.

BTW, Food and Drink here are still going up in price as well.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 01:59 - ID#339212)
No it isn't my eyes deceiving me...

I looked and looked and indeed,

S. Korea market is down 8.12% !!

Now I can sleep quitely, nothing wrong with my eyes.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 02:06 - ID#401460)
Gianni Dioro__A

They did it came from the IMF to Mexico to the US, now we have to give the IMF 50Billion if we have not already done so.

They were just trying to make people think that mexico had recovered and paid back the loan.
They did but it was a shell move.

By the way does anyone know the spot price of Gold - it really Pi++es me off when they keep the Gold action a secrete. Like it is not trading.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 02:11 - ID#401460)
Gianni Dioro__A

I do agree that they and everyone else may be running out of real money. And they are running out of qualified borrowers and buyers.

Brunswick said their earnings will be down because Asians can't get credit to buy Bowling Balls.....Seriously.


Strad Master
(Fri Jun 12 1998 02:38 - ID#250297)
Thanks Silverbaron
SILVERBARON: Many thanks for the junk silver info. Just what I wanted.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 02:47 - ID#340302)
More About Stagflation and its Effects on Gold, Equities, & Bonds
As Japan's currency sinks farther into the the USG refuses to intervene in the slide...then Japan will be left with only two short-term solutions to preclude capital outflows.

1 ) Sell US treasuries and use resultant proceeds to shore up the YEN. Unfortunately, by itself, this strategy cannot succeed unless Japan simultaneously carries out Step Two.

2 ) Radically raise its domestic interest rates above American rate levels. With higher rates, there will be no incentive for domestic Japanese capital to continue flowing into American markets.

As it stands, Japan's effective interest rates are ZERO, having been driven down to floor levels. Japan really does not have the option to lower them to any notable degree at this point.

The consequence of the radical Japanese rate hike:

Strong capital reversals back into Japan from America...necessitating competitive interest rate hikes by America to protect the Dollar.

The reasons that Greenspan CANNOT drop interest rates ( no matter how many economists and Wall Street analysts cry "DEFLATION! DEFLATION!" ) are several:

1 ) It will cause cause foreign capital outflows, severely weakening the US Dollar. A strong US dollar is the key to maintaining the current economic status quo.

2 ) The financial markets would regard any interest rate drop as a genuine inflation threat, given the extremely tight labor markets and the absence of evidence suggesting further productivity gains in the economy. Ironically, an interest rate drop would probably receive a very negative spin in the bond market ( owing to expected inflation ) ...especialy given that the USG has ( falsely ) claimed we have been experiencing a virtuous, non-inflationary economy these past few years. ( BullSh*t...Bullsh*t! It is this repeated claim each month over the past two years that has been the key to the equities bubble...and now, of course, today's new bonds bubble ) . Any suggestion of substantive potential inflation will pop both bubbles simultaneously.

3 ) The USG knows that the key to future health in the global economy lies with Japan's recovery. Since Japan is unable to drop interest rates to any significant degree ( they already have effective ZERO rates ) ...since Japan is both unwilling and unable to stimulate its domestic economy via massively increased domestic consumption and/or usage of public funds... then the odds favor Japan will raise rates drastically in a last ditch effort to repatriate flight capital and attract foreign capital into its domestic economy.

Once Japan raises its rates, then watch the chain reaction unfold as competitive interest rate hikes manifest all over the world. Already, various countries have begun the process...but the raging fire will not truly be lit until Japan takes action.

So, the USG is between a rock and a hard cannot raise cannot lower rates...

Unfortunately, I believe that the odds increase every day that the USG will use a major exogenous distraction ( such as War ) to pull itself out of this entire mess.

Whenever a government calls upon its people to defend the country against some foreign threat, then they are much more willing to endure financial hardships.

Any permutations of the above tactics ( raise rates, lower rates, or create a major catastrophic distraction ) should prove extremely favorable toward the movement of huge capital inflows into precious metals.

I would expect the hedge funds will be very busy over the next few months utilizing all their resources to defend their stock and bond investments against potential calamity resulting from the mounting global currency the major question is this: do they really have enough resources to continue the simultaneous suppression of the precious metals markets through a neverending spate of shorts sales?

I imagine we will all discover the answer very soon, yes?



(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:02 - ID#335379)
Asian Contagian, Live, up close and personal.
Hello all:
I am posting from a remote isp and cannot participate in ICQ{: (
I had a very uncomfortable taste of the "Asian contagian".
One of my very rich corporate customers that supplies silicon wafer
capitol equipment had to back out of a pending contract for a mere
$15,000 for June/July. Reason sighted was a big downturn in the Integrated Circuit Market and of course Sales of capitol equipment.
I had heard that this would come about a year ago, but it took them by suprise!
Sincerely looking toward a vacation in July,

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:10 - ID#340302)
Closing Comments of the Night...
It is my sense that yesterday we experienced final capitulation in the gold market on moderate volumes. Gold failed completely in the last 30 minutes of trading and plunged dramatically to close at its percentage terms, yesterday's drop was one of the largest in the past two years.

If I were selling the gold market short...if I were the least bit paranoid....then I might certainly wonder, "Is it pssible that major gold longs set up this entire situation and chose to "sit out" yesterday's it possible a trap has been set?"

The majority of technicians have turned EXTREMELY BEARISH on gold. The KITCO BAROMETER has never been more bearish ( in a morbidly humorous manner, mind you ) since I first began posting here 10 months ago.

Conversely, I have never heard so many euphoric, self-congratulatory messages offered up by gold shorts ( who shall remain nameless, you know who you are ) . It reminds me of the recent euphoria of gold longs at 320. Hmmm?

The spring is wound extremely tight...the pendulum has swung far over into DESPAIR.

Certainly, the conditions are now set for a major gold explosion.

Someone need only step up and light the fuse.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:15 - ID#252127)
When push comes to shove

farfel; if they can't stimulate their economy with low interest rates which allows the elite to engage in the carraige trade, why not treat the patient high interest rates. Some say it would make matters worst, but can they possibly get worst! Maybe they will use the returned currency to buy gold.

I sure hope that Vronsky's source was right about the 400 tonne purchase.

I quess you already heard that a Swiss bullion bank is reputed to have bought 50-100 tonne, this was mentioned by none other than Ted Arnold of MLPFS.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:19 - ID#287186)
Mozel - my nemesis apparently - or at least jousting opponent.
re your post of Thu Jun 11 1998 23:09
disparaging my post of Thu Jun 11 1998 21:58
1 ) Must we each and every one of us GUARANTEE the "truth and accuracy" {as you put it} of each and every source we refer each other to? Are we not capable of critical reading and of forming our own opinions of the material offered us? Gosh knows each of us runs information and opinions up the Kitco flagpole for others here to evaluate. Thus I hold you to the standard you seek to impose on me. I did not notice any urls from you referring me to sites where I may learn an opposing view. Do you not have any such sites which you "guarantee the truth and accuracy of".
2 ) No I am not a member of militia watch. I do not know the sponsors thereof. Must each of us be a member of the organizations whose web sites we post urls to here? Must we know their sponsors? Must we be employees of Reuters for instance, or of COMEX or of the USG?
2a ) Does NOT being a member increase or decrease our credibility? You imply that not being so hurts my credibility. Hmmm. I could rebut that by saying that NOT being a member improves my credibility because I can view their information in a more unbiased fashion. Are YOU a member of either militia watch or, on the other hand, the "freemen" since you seem to be defending them. Do you countenance their treatment of their neighbors? Ah ah - caught you reading more words into that sentence. Perhaps if you agreed to that last question I would think better of you - or maybe not.
3 ) You question my knowledge of the Uniform Commercial Code. Your statement is colored with the ASSUMPTION that I am not familiar with it and then you criticize me for not being so. You question whether I could have an informed opinion of it and the financial instruments in question. Did I express such an opinion? I did refer Kitcoites to a "pretty good synopsis" of the entire freemen episode but I did not pick out those particular issues - yet. I have not as YET expressed any opinion of what you have inserted into my few lines. You have a bad habit of accusing people of writing that which they have not and of thinking that which you can not know. You insert extra verbage into their sentences and then hold them accountable for it. You are out of line - literally!
3a ) Regarding the UCC. I have never professed to be a lawyer or expert in business law. But I am familiar with the UCC. It was part and parcel of my two semesters of Business Law. But again I did NOT address the financial instruments in question - yet! Are you baiting me?
4 ) Regarding your last question. {Now I will respond to your bait} I do support efforts of those who try to regain our liberties. Where I draw the line is using such arguments as a smokescreen to take my liberties. I do not want a "constitutional" government of a bunch of third-world revolutionaries who have become too lazy to work for a living and wish instead to take what they want from their neighbors by force. I do not wish to be associated with those who will use any handy excuses and, if those are not sufficient, create scapegoats and "laws" suited to their own self-serving purposes. As much as I dislike our current government - a government by such thugs, thieves and lazy bums would be worse. Am I familiar with such people - yes - and they are not welcome in my redoubt. Yes I would prefer to sit in the woods with a rifle to defend myself against those who would use force to take what I have. I believe you evidence a tendency toward such behavior or at least to support it. If this nation dissolves into anarchy ( and there IS a positive definition of anarchy - get out your Websters} I will view any such behavior directed toward me or mine as a capital offense - the sentence therefor to be carried out summarily. If one doubts that I have the means or the friends to do so if I fail - Please, I welcome you to "Make My Day"!
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming...
Gold, Silver and how to increase their value to us.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:24 - ID#432148)
PDG good news
Did I miss the discussion of the Venezuela supreme court's decision awarding Las Cristinas entirely to Placer Dome, and their 30% Venezuela partner? Sounds like good news for PDG as this is supposed to be one big mine, in which they intend to invest 600 mil. Cost $200 per oz.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:38 - ID#287186)
Those who bait the USG into attacking militias are as bad as the USG
For a definition of Militia by the Militia of Montana:
Here is a site that apparently {since I can not "guarantee it"} is of by and for the militias
"Militias aim to shed their KKK image"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:51 - ID#413109)
Beginning to feel like Mr. Puetz
He also stuck to his beliefs and interpretations of the charts etc.
and look what it got him.
Still feel that Japan's NIKKEI at these levels is a buy and a stop for
protection just below the 1450 range, which was the low made a few weeks
US markets I also see a turnaround in the near future, and of course
gold I said it yesterday, and yes there was a sharp further drop, but
then I guess I'm stubbern, still think these are the levels to BUY GOLD!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:55 - ID#413109)
No one challenged STUBBERN?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 03:59 - ID#284255)
China central bank intervenes to support yuan

What stimulated the reversal???

Many Asian indices and OZ's All ords staged a rather large reversal today.
Very unusual ocurance when the Dow has just plummeted.

Do some birds know that a reversal similiar to last Octobers?
Will be attempted with the Dow.

Let the sellers sell for the first hour
And then ramp the futures up to crate a new rally.

Perhaps the PPT has been in touch with a few brokerage houses???

Something smells fishy...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:13 - ID#39857)
farfel, I capitulate
I am gonna profit. I am gonna short this patient into the gutter.
Watch me. I aint even gonna cover. O-boy, I'm gonna have so
much cash. So much cash, so much panash, so much paper ash,
so much paper to burn, I'll be right for heating this year.
O'boy, I'm gonna be so filthy rich, I'll be makin my self
sick. And if a yuppy comes up to me and says "stagflation man"
even if he is my brother-in-law,I'm gonna do a tolerant1,and
that is,reserve the rights to punch his lights out.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:18 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Internal calculations now show our Negative Leadership Composite closer to
turning negative ( and confirming bear market "DISTRIBUTION" ) than on any
correction of the past 3 years. Another few days of downside leadership like
the last couple, and our NLC will finally trigger negative.
Fear is mounting with breadth decidedly negative. The question is whether a
full-scale bear can unfold without a monetary trigger - either from the
Federal Reserve or the bond market ( which actually rallied today ) . If a bear
is confirmed at this point, it would be a DEflationary bear which Wall
Street hasn't experienced in over 50yrs. That seems to be the message from
the weakness in gold.
A lot more should become apparent on the next rally attempt or two. If the
final highs are in place, as we suspect, then divergences should only
increase from here... with more negative breadth and our NLC confirming bear
A NOTE ON GOLD: ironically, a lot of the weakness is probably from the
soaring U.S. Dollar... which inherently, is inconsistent or even
incompatible with the soaring U.S. trade deficit. We did limit our position
in the gold sector to only 8% of our portfolio because of the slim risk of a
deflationary bear. If evidence mounts, we may advise exiting at least a
portion on the weekend hotline.
MONETARY PROFILE : +13, and Fed won't consider any policy change with the
turmoil brewing on Wall Street now.
NEG LDRSHP COMP : 0, slowly but methodically edging toward turning negative.
BREADTH DISPARITY: +384, a distorted bounce on the large drop today.
NASDAQ: -56, downside leadership is rapidly building.
SHORT-TERM INDICATORS... don't indicate much rally potential...
PRESSURE FACTOR: -9, not even half way to the oversold region.
CALL/PUT RATIO : -2, neutral - not close to its rally zone.
FUTURES PREMIUM: 16.27, trader confidence is starting to slip

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:19 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
. This will get worse before it gets better. South American markets are
going to be really stressed. Just think, the Argentine Peso is doing better
than the C$.

I do mean if ( when ) the dollar turns down in a meaningful way then most
investors will seek gold as their refuge. Perhaps because the gold price is
so low in dollar terms people will not be afraid to buy,
What I find so very difficult to reconcile is the fact that the yen is so
far from the dollar when the yen is backed by so high a percentage of US
treasury instruments,
If the dollar ever becomes the "Old Maid" and countries people don't want to
hold it any longer then what? Look for a double bottom in gold this summer
XAU equivalent of around 60 maybe a new low this year below January's by
that time the market will have probably made it's final top, during the lone
term Gann studies the best trade on the board 60 years ago was long silver
short the stock market, does history repeat? Yes, but not exactly..

If we are truly entering a deflationary phase, even bricks and mortar will
feel the squeeze. The last time we had deflation, real estate got hit bad
The one very serious flaw that a currency-backed store of wealth system has
is, if the country that has the in-favour "core system" ( to use Armstrong's
term ) falls to pieces, then where do people store their wealth? There really
may NOT be another alternative other than a hard tangible asset. Some may
say this is not likely to happen ... but who would have thought 10 years
ago, that today we would be watching the Japanese economy fall to pieces. In
addition, the core system accrues tremendous economic benefits to the
detriment of the rest of the world. It really gives global economic control
to that one entity. You had better hope whomever that is, they have a
responsible global outlook - because as I said before, it could lead to
tremendous economic disparity ... and even eventually to armed conflict.

even eventually to armed conflict
That is the final "life jacket" that all governments throw out when the
economies collapse. With WTI oil at $12.70, the OPECs of the world are in
dire straights NOW. They sell oil much cheaper than WTI price. Iran never
followed through on the last agreed cuts because the current government is
on the ropes and can't afford to cut any production. Most of the oil
exporting economies are very near your armed conflict scenario...

I think Russia is going to be the straw that breaks the camels back.
I think you may be right .... the move to "capitalism" has done little for
Russia thus far .... I anticipate much instability there - not going to be

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:22 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
Of course, it may be a long coming before the grand old lady turns down. My
thoughts are that Rubin, coming from a Wall Street background ( he ran Goldman
Sachs, for god's sake ) and also having headed up the risk arbitrage
department at Goldman, has a set of balls big enough to fill up the entire
South China Sea. And he is applying the old hard ball squeeze play on the
Japanese in a most ruthless manner. This is pretty typical of the way in
which the hard ball players on Wall Street play the game. Rubin knows what
he wants from the Japanese, he knows that they are in a weakened and
debilitated state, and he knows that it is his hand whom is dealing the
deck. And, this Yen is going to do down for the count until the Japanese cry
UNCLE and give it up. By give it up, he wants to see action on the fiscal
reforms, the banking sector, and most importantly, he wants to see the
Japanese emerge out from their coma of denial. And, I believe he is willing
to go to extremes to get it done, because that may be the only way to
convince them that he means business and will not blink. When we hear UNCLE
in Japanese, shouted loud enough to hear across the high seas, then we will
see the bottom and top in the Yen and dollar respectively. With our economy
is the growth mode that is , Rubin can afford to take risks with this

Soros Warns of Global "Slowdown"
IMO a kinder, gentler word for it.

I agree to a certain extent and that is one of the added negatives about
investing in gold stocks at present, you better buy the good ones if your
inclined to buy any.
However, the mine closures might help put a cap on a growing supply but
central banks and hard-pressed countries will continue to supply the market
for years to come.
I hate to be pessimistic but this is how I truly feel. I can't see it any
other way. In the end it will more than likely be academic for investors as
I believe there is few places to make money in this market as we have
entered a bear market or at best a corrective phase that will see Western
markets decline by more than 20%.

George Cole
There is much truth in what Armstrong says. But the current regime of US
global economic hegemony is much less stable than he believes. In this age
of nuclear weapons and almost total dependence upon complex systems, the
core is much less insulated from troubles in the provinces than in Roman
That said, it could still be some time before this ever more unstable
behemoth breaks down in a serious way. Gold could be considerably lower by
then. But when this baby finally does turn for real after an 18 year bear
market it is going to be a truly incredible ride up.
And let us not forget that Armstrong has long talked about a huge gold bull
when the bear finally dies.

POG is falling in US dollars. However, it is increasing or stable in many
other currencies. This is not to say that the POG will not fall below $250
US. However, if it does for an extended period of time, it would point to
major economic disaster sooner or later.
The Asian countries are currently experiencing deflation. Slowly, other
countries are joining in the economic contraction. China may have to devalue
their currency, which may in turn result in further contraction in the Asian
The US cannot indefinitely keep running balance of trade deficits. If the US
economy starts to decline, the rest of the world will likely face a
depression. For POG to be at $250, I would imagine the Yen would be at 160
to the US dollar and sinking.
The way I see it is that the only way to get out of this vicious circle is
to slowly start inflating the Asian economies. I think if POG falls below
$250, it will be short lived.
Gold supply/demand is already in a deficit of about 1000-1500 tons/yr. And
yes, don't forget the millennium gold coin. During the 1999-2000 year, we
could see demand exceed supply by 3000 tons or more.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:25 - ID#284255)
Avid Chatter - Oldman
I wont let an intra-day dip shake me out. It'll have to close at new
June lows to get me. Then I'll start back in as soon as we close back above there. The top aint in.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:27 - ID#257148)
Soldiers .........Au Producer.......Chas........

Soldiers: Old & Retired ..... greetinz

Apologies for confusing your handles, gentlemen. I hope you both read sharefin's post last evening about Jim Davidson. Thu Jun 11 1998 22:50 You should know that you and *all* kitco mercans are welcome in Noo seeland, providing you leave your fire-arms behind, ok?

Au Producer, you still around? e-mail me buddy,

will get back to you after week-end, unbelievably intense schedule last few days, this viagra moon, perhaps?

NZ share market down 12 days in a row, glad I'm not in't. On TV I heard the phrase "Asian Depression" for first time, from Hong Komg......

Alea jacta est

Throw the bones, crusty, and mind the punchbowl.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:31 - ID#39857)
sharefin,hi,these lungs were made for swimming
action a-plenty on allords, they want a bottom, but are they gonna
get it?. All this rain got me skulling cafe lattes. Hows weather in
Queensland. Got any rouge neeks given ya trouble. Good luck though.
I hope Beattie is elected. Previous post in jest. Cheers.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:37 - ID#24135)
Tell you what ..
Reify ...
YOU buy gold .. in fact ..
Ive even got a bit left I'll sell
you cheap ..

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:49 - ID#257148)
Tennessee is not the state I'm in

Which part of the Lucky country you in, cobber?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 04:59 - ID#39857)
aurator, I live
in geoffs lucky part of the country, thats the one that banked on
asian high rollers saving us from going hungry. What I mean
is geoff led us to the temple of doom and we created the gloom.
um in short central victoria. also known as the golden triangle.
warning do not come anywhere near us with precious in you pocket.
cheers bro

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:12 - ID#24135)
Do you want to talk about it ??
.. JP ..
You addressed this to me in am apparent attempt to
"straighten out" my thinkimg . You called in an analysis.
I disagreed and said it was merely a speech.
If Im wrong .. and I am a lot .. I say so .. lets
see if you do..
A very SIMPLE analysis says that the gold price is
below its 200 day MA and has failed to breech it ..
Its not easy to locate a bottom in this situation..
It can be very expensive. We played a countertrend
rally in Harmony and it was profitable BUT it did not
carry through so we got OUT or we should have.
The REVERSE is true of the Dow .. many times an
apparent "top" has been anticipated .. only to turn
on those who short it. When it crosses below its 200
day ma .. or some other KEY pattern is seen .. better
be careful.

Your posting follows... maybe we can all learn from

" Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 13:12
JP ( The price of GOLD--John Disney ) ID#253153:
Copyright  1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Many on this site are concern about the price of
gold. Let's analyze it.
1. Deflation is accelerating with interest rates and
commodities declining.
2. Corporate profits are shrinking and many
companies will be reporting
losses next quarter.
3. I believe equities have begun their bear market
and will decline as time passes.
4. Asia is in chaos with liquidity vanishing and
defaults rising.
5. In the US , although the unemployment rate was
unchange last
month, the number of people filing for initial claims
of unemployment
rose 30,000. That took place during during the
memorial day weekend. Actually claims should
have been down ( one day less to file ) but they
went up. To me, this indicate the beginning of rising
unemploymen t trend.
6. The politicians are not worried yet, but we
should see rising tide of unemployment in the weeks
to come. Then I expect the fed to lower
interest rates and probably we will see treasury bills
at less than 4% by year end of 1998.
7. Gold around $291 today is holding. Usually
during deflation gold will begin to rise ONLY after
the deflation is widely recognized by the population
and people become nervous about their bank
It may take another month or so for POG to start
rising but now
is the time to buy all the senior gold stocks or
average down on previous purchases.
8. How reliable is this outlook ?
Very reliable. Better be early than late. "

This is a series of non-sequitors justifying
the purchase of gold .. what for pray tell ??

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:16 - ID#257148)
Asia 2000--- of course there are few christians in asia--- timel marches to a different beat..
wanna compare notes? our pollies caught onto a brand new bleat about 5 years ago ..."New Zealand is Part of Asia,".... We had trade fairs, politician-exchanges. I remember a conference in about 94, entitled "Asia 2000". The wonderful irony of that, I have only just recognised. Anyway, I remember arguing with a man whose financial opinions are trustworthy, on the empirical evidence of his safe-made wealth ( through care and consideration ) about the Asian Tigers. I doubted they had the infrastructure to bear the projected expansions, and he quoted Lord Rees-Mogg. At that time I'd not heard of Rees Mogg. I have lived in those Asian parts, swum on those shores ( what shores? ) , loved some asian women. Nope. I never thought new zealand was part of asia. Actually, NZ is the furthest possible land mass ( apart from tiny islands ) from another land mass on earth. We are 1500 km ( I can be corrected ) from Stralia. This distance is increasing at about 2-3 cm per year. It is a problem for an extended power grid ( tip of the Hat to Buckminster Fuller ) but that's the only downside. And Now,,, new zealand is getting caught up in the asian contasion, we're trying to distance ourselves from asia, without turning our backs on our fellow humans in need.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:19 - ID#252391)
What I'd do if I ran Japan
If I ran Japan right now I'd take some of my US Debt paper over to the gold window and make an exchange. Hell I'd be taking great profits as I bought the T bonds long ago when the dollar was much lower. And here I could exchange it for gold which is pretty low. The effect would be to give the big finger to Rubin et al in the USofA. Down would go the US bond market, the dollar and the stock market. Maybe then Japan would get a little more respect and Clinton wouldn't just fly over on his trip to China.. Why won't this happen - probably because too many influencial Japaneses are making big buck buying T bonds with money borrowed a near zero from the Japaese banks.

Anybody have a link to the Traders' Consensus fiqures. I bet the Yen has to be a zero and gold not to far behind.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:22 - ID#373284)
What a lovely grey, the sky is about to burst...rain...the leaves are is
not for gold and, palms up...out to the lawn...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...un-daunted...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:29 - ID#257148)
Go timel, go!!!

"timel marches to a different beat"

Now that's a lot cooler than what I thought i was writing which was

"time marches to a different bleat."

And the rather off-hand reference to the few Christians in Asia, was an unperfected reference to other time measurements beyond that of the DOMINANT WESTERN PARA-DIM that carves things up incorrectly to 2000 years since some fellow is said to have been saying salvation = guilt was born.

Of course the Julian calendar is at fault, the man called Christ was not born 2000 years before the Y2K, and that's one irony. That the year 2000 is not the year 2000. The other irony is that there are countless millions of people in Asia who know less about the life of this man than that of Elvis Presley, or Einstein, or the Pope, whose lives are going to be effected even moreso by the merkan computer operating systems.....

What are the children of these asia folk going to remember caused the Y2K?


(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:36 - ID#257148)
throw those bones........((what was that Ray Bradbury story about dicing with death??))

It is the timel of THE GREAT SPIKE DOWN

or I shall lose my bet with auric

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:37 - ID#373284)
auratator, Namaste'
I looked up the word...OH MY...even me Mumm was scrabbled...A GIANT GULP to YA!!! Weighing the Island that is Long down with gold, silver and platinum in the Children's pockets...OH YES...INDEED...splendid...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:41 - ID#413109)
interesting offer
John D. ------- Very tempting. Is there a time limit
on your offer? I was thinking, maybe end of next
year, come visit your beautiful area, and I've been
told you seem like a nice chap, and have a nice
place. So contingency planning would be in order,
incase of some silly y2k screw-up and we get stuck.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:43 - ID#257148)
just timel and me
Mois: Well timel, it's just you and me

Timel: But I don't really exist, I am a figment of your imagination

Mois: yeah but there's noone else to talk to and noone's talking about Platinum since limey went to sea some sailors. Anyway, I'm a figment of some gun-toting warrior's imagination.

Timel: You really gotta get ANOTHER hobby, like counting sheeps....

(Fri Jun 12 1998 05:44 - ID#373284)
Nothing can go wrong...WE shall, WE must, WE are...the difference...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:00 - ID#252391)
Gold up in London
Gold is trading or pegged or fixed I guess the world is at $288.25 back above the critical 288 level . Silver is unchanged - strange given the Comex stocks levels being reported within 40K of new all time lows.

Things seem a little odd on the Kitco site, other than the quotes not working, the posting updates which can usually be refreshed by pushing "submit" don't seem to refresh.

Point on 200 day moving averages: Markets rarely make a bottom above their 200 day moving average or a top below them. There can be many a false and late start given when considering the 200 day moving averages, and like all else they are not guaranted indicators.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:25 - ID#257148)
,,,,,when you wish upon a star........
tolererant1 ( sic )

My heartfelt happiness ( cool double letters a-scrabble-ing ) to you & your mumm. My mums taught me: scrabble, a love of books, fine wine, ironing, "Never trust a banker" and "Don't get into debt."


(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:29 - ID#45173)
Japan 1997/98 GDP falls real 0.7 pct -- EPA
TOKYO, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Japan's gross domestic product
( GDP ) , the total output of goods and services minus net income
from overseas production, fell a real 0.7 percent in fiscal
1997/98 from the previous year, the Economic Planning Agency
said on Friday.

It was the first contraction since a 0.5 pct decline in
fiscal 1974/75, and compares with a rise of a revised 3.2
percent in fiscal 1996/97.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:30 - ID#248180)
@ Kitco Problems
jims: The problems seem to be everywhere this AM. I am having difficulty in accessing the ESI London share trade site. The lull before the storms/tidal waves rage again? This has been one memorable week and it is not over yet.
I have given up on all the techie stuff tonight here in OZ and have started the Vodka/Pickle chart analysis - it is a lot more fun. Cheers

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:31 - ID#45173)
Japan PM says Tokyo share price fall severe
TOKYO, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Japan's Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto told reporters on Friday the fall in the Nikkei share
average below 15,000 was severe.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:35 - ID#30116)
The story line is....
The world has bought the 'deflation' line. Commodities will suffer accordingly. Reality be damned. The U.S. economy is strong and the Asian economies are a wreck.

Yup, fat dumb, and happy. "Edith! Get me another beer!"

GM workers on strike??? Hmmmm........

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:39 - ID#248180)
@ "Rumored" Japanese Gold BUY of 400 MT
ALL: any confirmation of the Vronsky "Rumour". Spelled both ways for yall. If we here in the land of OZ are approx. a day ahead of you good ole Canadian & American boys; could it be said that "we are a drinkin up stream from yall?" Cheers

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:41 - ID#286199)
WSJ on Japan

June 12, 1998

Review & Outlook The Yen Dilemma

The sliding yen, which almost touched 144 to the dollar in New York trading yesterday, has been sinking markets around Asia. Tokyo stocks were off 2.1% Thursday after 1.2% Wednesday, and Hong Kong dropped 8% in the last three days. This presents a dilemma not only for Japanese policymakers but for monetary authorities around the world.

Exchange rates are best seen as a reflection of monetary policy. The yen

falls against the dollar because the Bank of Japan is supplying too many yen or the Federal Reserve too few dollars--relative to the demand for each currency. The yen's nearly eight-year low clearly reflects collapsing demand, as the Japanese economy sinks into outright recession. But if the central bank tightens to protect the yen, it will deepen the recession. Or conversely, concern over the value of the yen inhibits the aggressive easing indicated by Japan's rising unemployment and declining producer prices.

Given this dilemma, the Bank of Japan has expanded its monetary base by

about 10% over the last year, but this is not reflected in broader measures of money. One widely used measure, M2 plus CDs, has grown only 3.5%. A lot of cash is going into futons, while banks are not eager to lend and their customers not eager to borrow. The economy, in short, suffers from a lack of Keynes' "animal spirits."

Other Asian markets are falling because a low yen threatens another round of competitive devaluation. Devaluation by Hong Kong or China, which kept their currencies pegged to the dollar during last year's debacle, would be a major event for the world economy. Hong Kong is sticking with its currency board, letting interbank interest rates spike to 14%; this will not help local stocks or the local economy, but is undoubtedly a better choice than devaluation and the inflation that would ensue. Those who think devaluation will boost an economy by boosting exports should notice that Korean exports in May were lower than a year earlier. In the former Asian Tigers, indeed, the key to real recovery is re-establishing currency stability.

The Asian turmoil has not yet affected U.S. prosperity, and European markets have risen on the prospect of the Euro, which is to say, greater currency stability. The U.S. may even profit as investors flee Asian markets for the dollar. But yesterday Treasury Secretary Rubin warned that the weak yen is "almost a world-wide concern," while Bank of England Governor Eddie George warned that "Asian financial thunderstorms" create "a dangerous environment."

This environment especially deserves careful attention in the corridors of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In theory, after all, the weak yen may be a sign that the Fed is too tight. Indeed, this may not be mere theory, with the dollar also strong against the mark, gold below $300 and no sign of domestic inflation. As Chairman Alan Greenspan said in his testimony Wednesday, the U.S. economy is the best in memory. Markets were relieved by his suggestion that the Fed will not tighten; but it seems to us the

more pertinent issue is whether it should ease to help Japan and the rest of Asia.

At the Fed, it's heretical to suggest that managing the world's primary currency carries international responsibilities. In fact, the Fed blew apart the Bretton Woods monetary system by studiously ignoring these responsibilities ( in French eyes, abusing them ) . Particularly with the advent of the Euro, a currency representing a trading bloc the size of the U.S., it's certainly time for Mr. Greenspan and the rest to start to think more deeply about the world-wide impact of their domestic policies.

With the world economy clearly in a non-inflationary mode, traditional central bankers are still scouring the horizon for excuses to tighten. The Bank of England, indeed, just did boost its interbank rates, apparently because workers were getting paid too much ( and probably,the latest speculation runs, over the opposition of Governor George ) . This can only delay British harmonization with the continent and the Blair government's expressed desire to eventually join the Euro.

The very least the Fed can do for Asia is to keep its eye on the price level, and avoid tightening for spurious reasons such as too much economic growth or too much vigor in the stock market. With a real danger of deflation, the Bank of Japan could afford to expand its monetary base until broader money shows some vigor. Restoring growth, not protecting the yen, should be the first priority.

Given the essential monetary dilemma, though, Japan needs another policy lever to restore confidence and animal spirits. More infrastructure spending--Keynes' digging holes and filling them back up--is scarcely the answer. The problem is largely psychological, and the answer is to improve incentives in the Japanese economy. This means an explicitly Reaganesque policy of permanent tax cuts that reduce marginal rates. Repealing the VAT increase that started the latest downturn would not be a bad step; reductions in personal taxes would be even more explicit.

This implies, of course, shaking off the orthodox preoccupation with ex ante budget deficits. But on current course--no real fiscal stimulus because of deficit fears, and no real monetary stimulus because of the yen--Japan is headed toward more recession, larger deficits and a national funk. As we are seeing this week, it is likely to carry with

it the rest of Asia. The U.S. and Europe should not imagine that they will be permanently immune.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:43 - ID#45173)
@clone: Looks like you owe me a fine bottle of B&W Smirnoff
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...2:03AM...15022.33...+8.29...+0.06%

The toiled all day to pump this poor, sick thing up just .014% over the meltdown threshold. I can only imagine the terrible cost and effort that was required to do that, just so they could have the weekend to prepare for the coming Black Monday when the thing goes down completely out of their hands. I'll put a bet on that one too, because after the DOW finishes dropping today, Japanese investors are going to be convinced that deflation is here and cash is the way to go -- cash out! they'll cry.

Post your email address so I can send you my street address. If you're ever in the neighborhood, you're welcome to stop by for a few.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:43 - ID#286253)
@jims re Si stocks.

COMEX stocks are at near all-time lows and appear headed lower; that distinct downward trend has resumed, confirming reports that physical sales are once again quite strong. ( My friendly dealer says consignment sales to Asia are on fire. ) And look where the price is! Insane. A screaming buy.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:44 - ID#257148)
cause and effect.Shakyamuni, Nichiren, William of Occam, Bacon, Descartes, Liebnitz, Voltaire,

The more i'm here_@sages_dot_pages_dot_kitco, the more I seem to believe the simple truths of you reap what you sow...and the more you sow@kitco the better you getter.

just watch out for the punchbowl......

aristotle, aristotle was a bugger for the bottle

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:45 - ID#286199)
"400 ton Japanese gold purchase rumor"
It started here:

There is a great deal of cross-posting at 4-5 sites on the internet and a single rumor can become "news" easily. Y'all be careful out there.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:52 - ID#252391)
Thanks for the feed back about the slow world of cyberspace. Concur this has been quite a week. Based on the way HK and Japan closed along with steady to higher gold in London it looks like maybe a little settling is taking place. Brent Oil I noticed on CNBC Asia was 35 cents higher and above Texas Light Crude which I had never seen before.

Wish I could join you with the vodka and the pickles.

Talk that the political limbo Japan is in may leave no change to their situation for some time leads me to think there may be many weeks ahead like this and lows much lower than where we are before there's much cheer,here. Bill Murphy and Farfel's suggestion that we are about to see something dramatic are starting to fall on these deaf ears. Furthermore, anything dramatic that might raise gold at this juncture we probably don't want to wish on the world. Nursing these small losses and the pain of staying at all long may in total be far better than being right.

I just want to find those Traders' Consensus readings. The last rally in oil in April which corresponded to the last good time to get out of these precious metals and associated derivatives was proceeded by a reading of 5% in the oil consensus. I would just love to see oil, gold's and silver's now - they have gotto be close to 5%, too.

Important note - loss consinsus numbers to not necessarily make a turn - witness oil continued decline.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:57 - ID#257148)
Yasss, it's good to be upstream. guess who's upstreamingest, standing at the prow, stiking heroic poses into a bracing wind? 'Tis I, the windswept photogenic aurator.....

Have you ever been to the Ganges? Ganga mai? Oh. Ganga mai. And seen half burnt corpses float past with crows a-pecking on bandaged flesh?

Ganga mai.

Ganga mai.

It is best to take your drinking water upstream of the burnt corpses and washing women.......the life experience of 800 million "Indians."

India is not one country. There are over 100 languages, 40 ethnic groupings, 20 cultures, 60 religions..and some of the greatest programmers on earth.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:58 - ID#57232)
sharefin -- are you there?
Looks like the Oldman is still bullish on the US markets. If this is the end of ping II, we are about to extend the bubble. The US markets sure didn't drop very much -- no scary twitch like ping I yet. And now there is more reason for a twitch. Interesting. Any comments from looking at your technical material?

There is an interesting point made by someone in the last 48 hours, and that is that real short term interest rates in the US are actually on the tight side, and have been for some time. This is probably part of the reason for the strong US dollar. This may have been a mistake, but on the other hand, a lower short term rate would make the US market bubble even worse. Mistake or no, as Gollum says, the controls may not be responding as expected.

Also, I would guess that the Euromeisters want the US dollar strong and gold weak why they position themselves for an economic recovery and a successful launch of their new currency. If you can sell US dollars and buy EUROs while the dollar is strong all the better. It will thus probably be some time before the Dollar/gold carry trade reverses in a big way.

Regardless of what happens from a technical standpoint there is the matter of all of those derivatives trades. We need Donald's expert sleuthing to spot worsening earnings reports,etc in the banking industry. It is entirely possible that the final straw will be internal to the US markets, rather than external this time -- a slew of bad earnings reports form derivatives trades that went sour. I would feel alot more comfortable about the SEAsia situation if we had the Yuan devaluation, and an annoucement of a boatload of Japanese bank failures. Too early for the Yen carry trade to reverse.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 06:59 - ID#373284)
aurator, NAMASTE'
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...FOREVER WELCOME on the Island that is Long...ironing...thoughtful...contemplation...and a good pair of knitted socks...yes...indeedy...

To YOU and YOUR's.............would that I might lay my heart open like a carpet to greet....Enter...stand outside, look within...WELCOME...



(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:06 - ID#252391)
Spped and Sam
So the Japan gold purchase rumor is false but Sam's metal dealer is selling much silver in asia. Good News Bad News??!! Yes, silver does seem like a screaming buy at $5.15. Next week it could be .? .? . what's more than a screaming buy.??

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:09 - ID#248180)
@ jims "waiting" "holding" "wishing" "hoping"
Hang in there Friend. Accumulate. I am not a day trader or for that matter a frequent trader. We find prospective PM's sites near and far, develope them and sell them on. It's a tough market. But we are holding gold and other PM's our turn and day will come. We have a bit of oil in the family and we are saddened by the present price. We think 3 more months of rocky road and small pain. Then it's Yahoo ride em cowboy and hold on to your hats.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:09 - ID#411331)
@ all: I heard that the Japanese were prohibited from owning
gold. This law must date back to the American occupation.

I think Japan is going to raise interest rates and sell US
treasuries. The US will not be able to retaliate without
tanking their equities market, and economy. I cannot see
any other solution, as they certainly can't lower interest
rates, as their markets have been imploding despite
stimulative interest rates near zero.

The single biggest world economic problem is the bloated
American dollar. The Americans either want it overvalued
or are incapable of easing it down without setting off
hyperinflation ( stagflation ) It seems to come down to a
choice between a world depression and stagflation in the
the United States. I fear that if the world lets the
Americans choose, we shall have a continuing Democrat in
office, a world-wide depression, and a continuation of the
American bubble economy with stagflation.

I realize that if the Japanese raise interest rates, they kill
their equities market, but it's tanking anyway. I guess it comes
down to a choice of either protecting the yen or protecting the NIKKEI.
If they raise interest rates, the yen carry tradeis reversed, the
US dollar falls, and the world is safe once again from the financial
black hole that is the United States of America.

And gold should explode.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:10 - ID#286284)
@Speed; re Bretton Woods

Thanks for the lead. You hear more and more talk of Bretton Woods, eh? Soros talked about it in Davos ( see Lewis Lapham's piece in this month's Harpers ) , Paul Volker has alluded to a "different system" and this isn't the first time the WSJ has mentioned it on their op/ed pages.

Will a FX induced wipe-out of the Asian economies make people more nostalgic for the "good old days"? Could Japan ( as per rumours here overnight ) already have taken steps in this direction? All very interesting.... What would the peg be this time? $600? $1200? The mind reels.

Here is pertinent passage from the editorial:

"At the Fed, it's heretical to suggest that managing the world's primary currency carries international responsibilities. In fact, the Fed blew apart the Bretton Woods monetary system by studiously ignoring these responsibilities ( in French eyes, abusing them ) . Particularly with the advent of the Euro, a currency representing a trading bloc the size of the U.S., it's certainly time for Mr. Greenspan and the rest to start to think more deeply about the world-wide impact of their domestic policies."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:14 - ID#224267)
to Tolerant
Namaste!?! are you in india or where?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:18 - ID#248180)
Aurator @ a zillion Indians
Way over my head brother. I could never respect, or understand this nation. It confuses me, the Wests' facination with India and its' people. So many Bagwans, Gurus, mystics, alledged wise men and teachers; yet so much poverty, degridation and violence to women, children and the poor. Teach me and I may learn, but thier deeds confuse me.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:19 - ID#289357)
XAU - time for a turn - due this weekend

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:20 - ID#45173)
The political response is the one to watch!
Time to re-read:

Here's my favorite excerpt.

A Theory of Long-term Financial Cycles

"Why do these secular trends and cycles exist in financial markets? Here is one theory. When a financial and economic crisis occurs, the government attempts to solve the economic problem which is depressing the standard of living of many of its constituents. Doing so requires a major
shift in government policies, laws and institutions, shifts in income between groups within society, and shifts in economic and financial psychology. These changes require a government commitment to formulate, implement, and stick to new policies even though these policies will come at the expense of some individuals in society. The new policies can be difficult to implement because interest groups which have benefited from existing policies have gained influence over time, and will do what they can to resist change. This is why it takes a crisis to change government policies. Only when those who had benefited from past policies begin to
suffer, and others see their economic position grow worse in absolute rather than in relative terms, will the demand for change become overwhelming.

"The source of the crisis will change from one political-financial market cycle to the next. Governments used inflation in World War I, but price controls in World War II to fight the war. Governments considered unemployment a greater evil than inflation in the 1970s, but the opposite in the 1980s. At some point in the 1930s, the lack of government intervention began to harm more people than government intervention itself, while the opposite became true in the 1980s. Just as investors change their financial portfolios, voters change their demands upon government"

EJ's Prediction ( save this post, if ya care ) :

Deflation will cause unemployment, starting next year in earnest, reaching politically difficult levels by the end of the year. Gold, along with other commodity prices, will continue to fall. Clinton, discredited for bringing the economy down on our heads, will be succeeded by Bill Weld ( you heard it here first! ) , who will run on a protectionist platform that promises to get the economy going again and create jobs. When he is actually elected, he will not take protectionist measures -- he's too smart. He will, however, bow to pressure to ease unemployment and inflation will once again be underway. Only then will our gold go up in earnest. I got in too early. Oh, well.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:21 - ID#286284)
@jims re Si Stocks -- more screaming buy next week?

Successive days of record warehouse stocks will cause heads to snap. As well, Si demand ( from the trades ) is $US insensitive. Kodak needs the Si whether the Yen is 80 or 160. It is not stupid, it knows the world is running out, it knows this may be the last time for a long while that we see the price down here. Big bids at $5.00. I can't see visiting new lows given this environment.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:22 - ID#300202)
@Slamming Our Precious
Just watched on Canada's CTV, a well articulated ad-show's a well
dressed man with an opened satchel of what appears to be rare coins
& or bullion. Basically states that Precious Metals are not a safe
haven in these times & that despite Asian difficulties-they are not
buying. Concluding remarks-he stated-"Please do not buy Precious Metals"



(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:23 - ID#57232)
China is having problems in Nepal
All: 24 Maoists killed. This does not sound like the peaceful Nepal I remember. They have given up on the passive resistance approach, and the Shangri-La image.

Bully Beef
(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:27 - ID#259282)
Famous Chinese curse..." May you live in interesting times."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:29 - ID#373284)
Prudent, NAMASTE'`
Arriving in Shantiniketan today I am steeped in peacefulness...Surrounded by the limitless sky and the wind and the light, I am, as it were, nursed in the arms of the primal mother...

Rabindranath TAGORE...

Howdy...A GIANT ISLAND THAT IS LONG you and YOUR's......

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:29 - ID#57232)
'Please do not buy precious metals'
caper: Interesting post. My take on this is that the add is one of desperation. Perhaps financed by the precious metals shorts, or by the 'fiat' currency addicts. Noone hurt themselves by buying precious metals ( bullion coins ) if the idea was for security. Collector coins are another matter, as more knowledge is required. Also, collector coins during deflationary times might not perform that well.

Has anyone seen an ad like this elsewhere? Would be interesting to see who paid for it.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:33 - ID#257148)
I am told that the first English phrase a French child learns is.."My tailor is rich."

Mumms was canadian, fell for twice-sunk Merchant Navy Captain spinning orations of truthful adventures against nazism in 1942, married in Montreal and brought her to London ( rented maiden-aunt accomodation ) in time for the blitz. Hubby on ocean waves in Atlantic Theatre. Ex-Pat Canadian sheltering amongst suspicious London strangers in the tube. Dad's Fleet attacked and sunk by Bismark and Graf Spey.

Mumms received TOP PRIORITY ADMIRALTY CABLE in late '42..... "MEET me in Liverpool, and bring ...THE IRONS."

The irons were, at that time, solid iron, for heating over coal-burning stove. Mumms ( dutiful wifely ) lugged 2 x 7 lb irons, a hundred or so miles from Paddington Station, straffed by luftwaffe from London to Liverpool. Upon top secret arrival....was greeted by a capitainly "Oh, my steward has ironed all my uniforms, you won't need those."

Mumms vowed to teach all her sons ( me ) how to iron clothes, cos no woman should have to put up with that....

I can get a good crease in almos anythinggg

La Plume de ma tante

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:36 - ID#248180)
"I Lied " "I Cannot Tell a Lie" "I'm Drinking French Cognac" "No Pickles"
Oris & All - Brothers: In honour of Stephanie and the French hosting of the World Soccer Finals. The Late Night Drink for the next few weeks will be French COGNAC taken with nibbles of Chocolate Truffles. Good Night ALL and Cheers. Live long with excellent health, Prosper by good fortune and may the living God Bless you. Jr.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:40 - ID#252391)
Sam - Big bids at $5.??
How do you come by the knowledge that there are big bids at $5. Seem two weeks ago when the market went to $4.91 the bids were not there. Admittedly the $4.91 was not on Comex.

Have to agree with you on the Indians - haven't been able to understand the mystique but then I'm long silver mines and any rational customers' man in Nabraska can tell you that's been, is and will be the wrong thing to do. Buy some Coke instead for which the change in the stocks price by a 1/4 point is equal in dollar value to the value of all the silver in Comex vaults.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:48 - ID#286253)
@jims re big bids at $5.00

Of course I don't know whether or not there are big bids at this price. South of $5.00, however, trade buying was reported to be heavy. This perception certainly exists. Will this give the shorts pause for thought? I think so.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 07:52 - ID#257148)
...........get, get. get outamerka,

I think I would be presumptious if i could distill India into a "western-sized-comprehensible-bite" and that is the gulf,twixt the caucasians and the myriad nations of India.

India is not a nation. Neither is India a confedeation of States,

Mercator's Projection leads most eurocentrics/caucasians to believe that India is smaller that Europe.

We are talking

( a ) Cartography

( b ) demography'

) c ) history

few merkans, I think ( so can be corrected ) know that the numbers we use are actually hindi?? besides zero and infinity.

India, what can I say? I have been to villages in India unchanged since the historic Buddha, Shakyamuni trod this earth.

India is not a country. It is a collection of disparate cultures, languages and religions that has been co-operating, fighting, marrying and feuding for thousands of years.

Please. My merkan friends. go to india.

get, get. get outamerka

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:00 - ID#288369)
What green papermoney I have left I will now spend to purchase 5 gallon plastic buckets to be filled with peyote. Yes, I will have a fine ride into the millyunious.'.stoned

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:03 - ID#286199)
The Japanese purchase is a rumor, neither true nor false until proven out. Bill Murphy is an optimist and has sources of information which he shares with others. I hope he is right. Time will tell.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:05 - ID#373284)
aurator, Namaste'... my friend...a pleasure...a HONOR...
as each droplet arrives, to greet the end of a leaf...I shall think of your thoughts and all that created you...

I have just spoken with Thor...the BIG DOG HAMMER is raised unto the HEAVENS in your NAME...

Crease Defense...Lacrosse...I do UNDERSTAND...

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:05 - ID#347267)
Shouldn't you acknowledge the source ( Jim S. ) ??

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:07 - ID#252391)
Sam's $5 bids and So. African golds
Darn, Sam, I thought I had finally found the one who know. Seriously, I think your are right about commercial demand being strong under $5, but I suspect that users are keeping inventories low as most businesses do when prices are low and FALLING. I think this tendancy is what will give silver its ultimate strong run, in the mean time I think inventories are likely to be more hand to mouth. My Customer's Man in Nebraska would chide me unendingly for buying a falling market the smart money has so correctly sold.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:11 - ID#358318)
Please do not press this button!
P.S. Please do not buy Precious Metals!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:13 - ID#373284)
Tom Horn sends his regards...He don't talk much...but when he does it is worth the grass...Moths wings trumpet while I blink...

Slim is Picken and Leo is on the way.....

God Bless you and the GREAT STATE of OKLAHOMA!!!!!!!!

Boy...I love IT when MY Silver gets QUICK...


(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:13 - ID#257148)

just bought, ahhem "used" plastic jerrycans. 20L each. sterilised with sodium metabisulphite, ( the brewers' friend. eh ? )

Oh mes amigos,

My words are too salty to express the wisdom of our kitco convocation.

Although much of my "paper cash" is still "off-shore" the most real investments are precioussssss

BJ said tonite "You kmow more about what's going than our ( multinational super-drung company ) financial advisor.

It's because I am privileged to listen to the sages@pagessdot_kitco

I am obliiged to each and every one of you who have posted.

haere mai

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:21 - ID#252391)
South African Gold Shares
Forgot to report on South African gold shares. My wife came in and we were talking about her car while I was posting. ( I've lost more money on here car than in these markets, oddly distresses me less. Probably becasue I know I can be fooled by car mechanics. )

Anyway the South African gold shares are down a cute 3.5% falling to new lows for this decline off the April highs.

Gold is trading up a dollar and 75 cents right at the "critical" 288 level. The S&Ps were up 300 points. This looks like a classic bouce back to the break down point - 5::2 odds its a short selling opportunity.

Bill Murphy works for Veneroso doesn't he.?? I feel that Veneroso's work is well researched. But in reading Bill's post on the Japanese gold which Vronsky's must have come from ( or did come from ) Bill too was loosing some of his optimism - seems his projected six month base is going to be extended. His point in the aforementioned post got lost on me. Seems he thought the idea that Japan was buying gold would be bullish but then seemed to try and make the case that it wasn't. I suspect he had some doubts about why the market hadn't reacted to such news if in fact it were true.

Yes Junior, I hoped I had found "the one who knows..." - probably resistes in India on top of a silver mountain.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:22 - ID#256326)
Many thanks for the site. I think I can demonstrate a tighter integration of the equity/bond/commodity markets and their cycles ( and going back much further ) than shown in the article. I'll try to get it posted this weekend.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:25 - ID#256326)
And then I will demonstrate diving into a damp cloth from a tall ladder.......Yes.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:27 - ID#288369)
@His Royal Saltyness and T#1forever.............
aurator........I live for the day we meet, hopefully whiles we are yet mortals. I, too, am enriched daily by the thank you. y mi casa es su casa.

T#1, Tom and Leo........there IS a home on the range, where the BUFFALO still roam....and it is here that you will be most welcome and safe. Oh my friend, the rain will drop to 1.5 Ph @ midday falling on the Street of Walls, and calcium carbonated mortar will dissolve, loosening the stones of lime. Stay inside with us.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:34 - ID#252391)
Mt Bear, What would be the source of Sarfin's 04:18?
What if there is nobody who is the "one who knows?"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:37 - ID#257148)
...same ....same

my whare is your whare


blessings to TED. Who'll be back in time for the gold-barn-raising@PARTY

goodnite from timel and I

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:44 - ID#284255)
Mtn Bear
You are so correct.

But my back t'was sore and my head was foggy and my vigour abated.

I live a life of plagarism - cut and paster by trade.

How else can an ex-fisherman cast his nets.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 08:44 - ID#288399)
Re: Japanese rumour:buying/selling you-know-what
IF the Japanese did buy any gold, don't look for it to be confirmed on CNBC or anywhere else. Remember, we're mushrooms only. I think the Japanese are playing "chicken" with Rubin. We need some less macho type people at the top. The Japanese are the head and we are the tail, because we are the debtors. Go gold!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:11 - ID#286253)
@ jims: Si Inventories

What do you mean? Commercial Si inventories are in many ( most? ) cases _negative_; i.e. the trade is short. Why borrow $US working capital @ 6% to buy Si when you can borrow the Si at 1.5%? This has been happening in droves. The short position is huge. Now - you're Kodak, you're 15 mil oz. short and your analyst tells you a crisis is coming ( as I said, these guys are not stupid. ) Are you going to cover a little on the dips? We'll see...., eh?


(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:13 - ID#300202)
Extensive investigation ( called CTV Ad Dept. ) reveals Fidelity
Investments ran the negative precious metals ad nationally ( Canada ) .
Interesting since they did not display their Fidelity name.
Their tel # @ 888-203-4778.

More comments?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:23 - ID#284255)
Avid Chatter
KOREA -8.1%; Korea cas and electronics hit hard on yen; samsung electronics -7.41%; LG -8.79%; Hyundai -9.76%...; Foreign funds wonna go out

guess what's gonna happen to US and German car makers

big funds count on dipies to sell; big houses selling yesterday was heavy

gold physical demand very strong

should the yen stabilize some day, Nikkei might be interesting again; jap. pension funds must decide soon where to invest

bulls dont overestimate the stupidity of the mob.. or at least its importance

somebody heard a national bank want to buy 3000 tons gold

gold ECB range not clear yet

actually people believe the point where they will be forced to but gold near but they want to kill options owners

all europe much lower then in opening

thai may crude oil imports plunge 49% fron apr; people don't realize Asia crirsis didnt begin yet

Cathay pacific passanger traffic -8%; thats positive; they dont need much gas

Lehman: Shell underperform

the germans may decide that want to help russia after all. : )

Rubin was cheif cook and bottle washer at Goldman FX department.... he knows what he's doin ..... by not steppin in now he gets credited with singlehandedly pushin the bondos off to new highs right out of the range that they were stuck in since January .... once he's satisfied that they are securely risin he might consider appeasing the crys for more stable currency levels

he'll have a very tough time reversing the trends however ..... the currency boyz only know one thing .....go with the flow ( read trend ) and the trend is up fer the dollar .....If ya asks me it's short term gain for long term pain ....US in now the only contry in the world that don;t care to be competitive for the moment....certainly not good for export manufacturing ....however if ever there was a way to induce a deep recession in this ebulent US economy you can congradulate Mr Rubin & Co on finding it

He has however turned the USD into a magnet for scared money so I guess this is a good thing for the US but I dunno about the rest of the world.... draining capital from markets that are beggin for some will not be benificial to their collective health

1/3 of the world is now in depression ( at least that's what it look like to me ) ... will be interesting to see if both Europe and the US can avoid a similar fate

yup great concept "usin other peoples money to buy the other peoples assets back" sure hope it works!

wonder what Mr. Rubin will do when domestic industries cry out that they are at an unfair disadvantage against other domestic companies that own assets in Asia and can produce the same item for 1/3 the cost .... they will certainly have a tough time slappin import restriction on GM Asia ( formerly Toyota ) as example

globex volume heavy; the fall is no manipulation

germany -2.5%

good point, i wasn't thinking of direct equity market manipulation, btw, just the currency/trade relationship.

we here at the ostrich farm can't see the writing on the wall. heck, we can't even see the wall. ;- )

germany is in trouble! without the bull market they must finance the pension funds. Its not allowed their to let people without pension funds to just starve

all this while the rest of the world is fallin apart fer the second time in 9 months!
( rest of world excluding Europe in which some markets actually made significant new highs this month! )
today may in fact be very critical if the bear is unable to penetrate new lows and closes back up strongly

riot on wall street -- calling all fellas -- 100 buyers -- 10,000 sellers -- burma shave

Yamamoto - "walk away" -- gerry weiss - 'sell, dont buy" -- Leibivit - "short the dow" -- Dag - "decrease your investment" -- Addison - "raise cash" Astrologers -"8700" -- Principles - "go all cash"

globex was interesting last night between 4-5, looks like a scared short ( or artificial prop ) with a sizeable position had a 1111 bid until covered

commodities are funny like that "when they are bad they are very bad" and bottoms take a very long time to make .....the only reason I played the long side was in anticipation of joint intervention ....the message is now loud and clear "yer on yer own baby"

It's a laissez faire world now ..... no one can do anything to save it cept jawnbone a bit

PPI passenger cars -1,9% biggest since 1990 - biggest fall of course

rumour: fidel grant asylum for clinton

BOJ gives new meaning to the words "impotent central banker"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:23 - ID#36156)
BartMan - The Dark side of the Force is with you this morning...
Quotes come and go, the server is constipated, and I can't pull any discussions prior to 6 AM this morning...

Why oh why have though foresaken us? The hungry Kitcoites are gropping in the dark as our fates are determined by others. Does the word "mushroom" have any significance here? : )

Please, young Bart, return to the rightful side of the Force.

ObioneHenryD ( Go Gold - blindly so... )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:25 - ID#300202)
@Fidelity Response
We do not & wud not run ads like that. Spokesperson's a'hole was
puckerin'. Stated they would call me back.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:27 - ID#224363)
Fidelity and PMs
Haven't seen the TV spot yet but if as described, here is my take on it.

1 ) Call Fidelity and they Will Say

It was put out as a service to our existing customers. We are worried that with all of the turmoil in the markets, they will make a bad investment decision. This is to protect and educate them.

2 ) Read Between the Lines

We are scare sh*tless that they will dump our funds and run to PMs. We don't want a run on the funds right now cause we have no cash.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:28 - ID#45173)
aurophile: you're most welcome. I look forward to your analysis and
photos of your spectacular high-dive act.

Speaking of spectacular high-dive acts, what do you think the DOW will do today?

On the topic of the Canadian "don't buy precious metals" ad, I wonder what it is the advertiser wants us to buy insteady. Stocks? Bonds? Bucket of peyote?


(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:30 - ID#252391)
Sam and Caper
Caper if your research is correct and Fidelity was running those negative gold ads that is amazing, absolutly amazing - can't believe it. I was thinking perhaps the ads were intended to get people to buy gold since they were being told not to. My gosh is the short position that far out of control. has to be more to this story...I'm staying tuned.

Ok on the silver inventories -I'm always ready to learn so teach at me...I borrow wilver at 1.5% I use the silver to make film or mirrors, why then would I initiate a short sale. If I was the guy who lent the silver would I go short, I guess so, especially if I was a mine; I want to protect my sales price and what, get the extra 1 1/2% interest. Somethng doesn't make sense.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:30 - ID#277302)
Warning to all Yankee gold shorts:
Cover your assets.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:35 - ID#373284)
Today his chariot
Rides to the invocation of night
To the music of the spheres
Towards dawns's Lion Gate
I remain behind, burdened by the past
He is released, no longer here.....................


Truly MY are that which Dances with Wolves...

Basking in the wonder that is you.............thankful...your kindness will live within all children...FORever...........

Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:35 - ID#229103)
Found a "Source Media" who does advertising:
Source Media

John Reed
5400 LBJ Freeway, Suite 680
Dallas, Texas 75240
( 972 ) 701-5400

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:38 - ID#187218)
..... ,,,,,, ..... today's ,,,,,, ....... the ,,,,,, .......... day ,,,,,,, .......................

I took a line that leads you to the opium trail
Oriental eys reveal the lies, deceit, betrayal
On this journey behold one who travels far
You called him fool but now you are

The wizard wanders through the world he made from dreams
The splashing whirlpool drowns the frightened screams
Exotic dancers, flashing lancers, this mysterious space
The fanfare advances, the warlord falls from grace
... "

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:39 - ID#206298)
@ EJ
I'll do a bucket of peyote with ya'. As a matter of fact, this last gold dive has been a trip.
I was reading a minute ago that japanese finance ministers aren't concerned at the falling yen yet because it is good for exports!!
That statement was worth at least 1 button!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:44 - ID#210235)
@Good morning.
Noticed that Europe is tanking, so peeked at the news they're reading.

Headline of BBC News : Japan Goes into recession. ( This is the first one since 1974. )

Closer to home, they're worried about Russia. Europe's banks are more exposed than our own. Then there's Kosovo.

Be sure to click on the story in the frame to the right:

Business: Catching the Asian Flu.

( summary of affect on financial markets )

"The gloom can also affect financial markets more generally. Stock markets across Asia have had dramatic falls in recent monoths. If investors believe this is the end of the stock market boom globally, they may decide to switch out of equities entirely, into safer forms of investment such as bonds.

This could hurt confidence in markets generally. And falling stock markets could mean that the people who have benefited from the increase in stock values will feel less wealthy. In the US an extra $12 trillion of notional gains has been sitting in the accounts of the 30% of the population who own stocks If the fall in notional wealth makes them spend less, this could weaken economic growth in the Western industral countries. And it could also make people demand higher wages, raisiing inflationary pressures."

Gee, with all this gloom and doom in the major press headlines, I guess we can take the rest of the day off.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:46 - ID#153102)
@Squirrel @Nemesis @6Pak
Yeah, I'm wise to the way you critters hide back of the tree. When you peek, ...

Pay your taxes. Consume & Die [clueless]. You gave up your gold for a lot of toilet paper, so it looks to me like you are all set.

@6Pak Find Morris Dees and follow the money. It will take more sleuthing than Caper's finding out of Fidelity's secret propaganda
ad required. Ultimately, whose purposes are served by discrediting the status and name of freeman, the right to keep and bear arms, and the Constitution ?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:50 - ID#244418)
Fridays are free at the chaos clinic
This is an interesting chaos and-who-knows-what-else based site for day trading the S&P. It gives directions throughout the day for free on fridays.
scroll down to the line: "click here to go to the chaos clinic"
You might also read "Why Johnny Can't Trade", on the influence of electromagnetic radiation from your computer monitor on your thinking and trading.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:52 - ID#252391)
Current July Silver 5.14
July silver is at 5.14, doing absolutely nothing. Wonder where pot is . Not at %.20 anymore I would venture to say unless that premium is on account of the stocks. Like I say there are European stocks nobody knows he size of and private stocks nodbody knows the size of . Comex is the visible peak of the berg. I swear Silver stocks will go down to 75 million oz and silver will be lower than where it is today. Kodak just isn't worried enough and the negative metal ads were a waste of time and money - there isn't any demand for this stuff realtive to supply. LOOK AT THE PRICE!!!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:54 - ID#284255)
Avid Chatter
tomorrow is going to be THE biggest day in the market's history. We're just 1 bad day away from a break of May's lows, and a close down there would not be bullish. Since so much is at stake, I expect them to save it tomorrow -- at least that's what I'll be looking for. Was short MOC yd, but flat now. The selling today was 'too' perfect, if you know what I mean ...

It is conceivable that Fri and Mon could be down as that would only represent 4 downers in a row, leaving Tuesday for the mind blowing rally. 200d MA at near 1040 spu8. With this being the greatest bull market in history, I find it hard to believe the DOW wont at least take a shot at 10,000, but maybe that is what everybody thinks, and they keep buying trying to get there ...

only 5.5 trillion on explicit margin - 'bout 20 trillion implicit - but in 'wonderland' guess that dont matter, or at least it didn't before today

each successive correction since 1994 has been a tad scarier. maybe we need to REALLY scare them this time?

well maybe not THE biggest, but it will be huge, larger than most if the bull is to survive. What I am saying is the bull MUST deliver, tomorrow is a MUST win for the bulls, if they let it go and Junes low breaks, I say the bull is dead for quite awhile, even though I would still like to see one more rally before that happens -- it'll make it easier to believe the sell when it happens.

Now if we have a black monday and we end up with another 10/28/97 on Tuesday, that might change my mind.

anyone long yen? readem and weep
anyone long crude? readem and weep
anyone long gold? readem and weep
anyone long dollars and short yen? Thank God for America

it's hard to say, but after Wed, and now that the market is all the way down here, it's getting hard to imagine 1140 breaking spu8 anytime soon, but next week is expiry and the last two expiry weeks ( Dec and Mar ) were downers, but they have a history of being up. So before I give up on this market, I'll give it one more shot to the long side, I am definitely running out of patience. They have been stringing this thing along up here for eons but the market wont collapse out of this range -- big accounts still buying the dips and its hard to fight that

the Aussie $ has been mirroring the Jap yen for several months with the argument that instead of reflecting the state of the commodities it sells it is reflecting the markets it serves. Japan is expected to announce that it has slipped into a recession. the worst one in 23 years. But hey everything is in the charts ;- )

I never said they were free. Who says they need to be? The problem is America can't stand anyone that doesn't want to play on the same rules as America does. Right or wrong. But Japan has done it for a long time and really irks many.

I guess nobody cares what happens to yen. I guess Japan is just another 2nd rate third world country. Pretty soon we'll be using yen for toilet paper here in the US

pal: that's a good question on exactly how they do it. All I know is when the central banks put their mind to it, they can all work together and start buying YEN. but the thing is I don't think anyone wants to step in and help Japan here unless Japan does what the US corporations want. Odds are Japan wont bend and YEN will become another worthless asian currency the way things seem to be going. // I am still waiting for dgoto to move that YEN to the US : ) that'll be a buy signal

--- has the intervention started? JY has erased globex losses and is now up 5 ticks. spoos has recouped almost all their globex losses. Feels like all of Asia is putting on their rally caps tonight. I'm starting to regret standing aside and not buying that closing tick at 4:15.

Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Eisuke Sakakibara declined to comment on Friday on the rise of the dollar over 144 yen after statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin overnight. hmmm?

it appears that cash is king, gold dn 6, oil at 12? what is going on?

dgoto: don't you think that rubin's comments are just "up yours" rejoinders after the memory of all those officious japanese and european comments about the dollar when it was on its ass in earlier times? they always told us we needed to make some changes in our economy and lorded it over us. Well, we did.

As for a budget surplus.. Well America has stopped the boat from taking on water but we still have a whole lot of water to get out of this very unstable boat, and America is using Japanese money as oars...

with the fundemental sentiment indicator RISING and prices having fallen.......if we were to get a minor momentum bouce here we might see a rally.....with the dollar and the long bond doing so well....but then again if we were to turn down just a little more going into the week-end maybe things would get ugly next week.......

TOKYO, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Members of financial affairs committees of Japan's ruling party are split over the economic impact of the current weakness of the yen, a senior panel member said on Friday. The Liberal Democratic Party's ( LDP ) financial affairs and fiscal committees met the Finance Ministry's Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday morning and discussed current moves in the foreign exchange market, the panel member, who declined to be identified, told Reuters after the meeting. Kuroda, director-general of the ministry's International Finance Bureau, explained conditions in the market to the panel members but did not give a clear indication where he thought the yen would go, he said. He added that some panel members said they approved of the current yen weakness because it would benefit Japanese exporters and thus the Japanese economy, while others expressed displeasure at both the yen level and at comments on the yen by U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

oleman... One thing that will happenm is that I will be flat on a new June closing low.

oleman... I think there is a good chance my bottom aint gonna hold. If so, I'll lose twice as much as I should, because I violated a cardinal rule of mine for position trading. I added on to a long at a LOWER price. I generally enter a position 1/4 at a time, always at higher prices. That 6/4 reversal looked so good that I went ahead and added on there. So I have 1/2 the total line on, when I should have only 1/4. One of the things that really make the difference between making good $$$ and making little, or even losing, is to be wrong small and right big. Entering position trades in stages-----always only after prices have moved in my favor---has been very valuable to me. Daytrading has been very good this week, but that wont take the sting away if the position trade goes bad. I laugh when folks post that they have "softened" the blow, or "lowered their basis" on a losing position trade by good day-trading. IMO, that dog wont hunt. If I didnt have the position trade on, my total equity would have gone up by the full amount of the daytrade profits. The loss is real, whether you admit it or not. If we make new lows tomorrow, I am sure I'll catch a good chunk of it. But that wont make the loss I'll take on the position trade a bit smaller. Or less bitter.: )

.....mind you....I'm not predicting that it will happen......but volume has been picking up.....and anything could happen....especially what we least expect to.......or it may just happen as a more slow type grind.......but let me say from here that everything I see from here predicts/anticipates a move higher from these levels....happening very all I can think of is that we may have some very violent shake everyone up......

the blood i smelled in taiwan is over capacity. The electronics sector has built to the moon. They have more 8 inch fabs collectivly than any other firm... they admit 30% utilization, but i saw a lot ( i mean alot ) of people at the water cooler talking about jobs... this is unusual... high tech is really at a cross roads, eather the world starts buying VCR's ect or maybe Y2K fixes, or somebody has put a lot of money were it will not produce in the short term....

oleman...: I agree. I also think that a failure of the June low will stop around 1060SPX. But my system requires me to vacate on a new closing low. This buy signal is a good one. It scores at better than an 80% clip. But it failed in Sept '87.: ) So you gotta be careful. I dont care if I'm out one day and in the next. Never violate $$$ mgt rules. I was out on 1/9/98 and back in on 1/12/98. Didnt take long to make up the loss, and I slept well that weekend.: )

i just had a big ahha... it really is too late to fix the Y2K in the imbedded chips, with all the production capacity that exists, the designers have not started, we can not even get a "hot lot" through the fab in time to fix Jan 1, 2000, what are we to do about production applications????

oleman... There is a whiff of recession/deflation/depression in the air. Look at the weekly charts of "stuff". Its incredible how many commodities are at decade lows, with bondos at new highs. Interesting times.: )

I subscribe to 'Past, Present and futures'... they make a compelling argument that supports your view concerning weak commodities. However, that mega 60 year cycle is due to bottom soon.
between 1980 and 1998, commodity prices have declined as much as 75%. In other words, we have almost matched the commodity deflation ( that occured ) during the great depression!'

certainly the stocks representing the commodities don't show bottoming action.

et al.... ever heard of using a ratio of s&p to commodity index? Interesting concept really. Thought is, there are times to be in stocks, and times when commodities will do much better than stocks. They are saying we are setting up for one of those times.

I assume you mean the deflation. I guess one thought would be that these things are cyclical to some extent and that the trends tend to last many years. If that is even partly true.... it still wouldn't explain the market dynamic at work here. your thoughts please

oleman... Yup and during the whole time, up to the meeting last week, our FED has been talking about "fighting inflation". Go figure. gone to bed. luck to all.

wonder who's next on the competitive currency devaluation list ....germany and rest of europe looks to be headed there shortly ....nother 130 ticks and DM makes a new low fer the year...... should be there within a week or so ...

is zero inflation really a good goal. wouldn't that be inert, stagnant, dead... after nature is always seeking but never really attains a true equillibrium... and prolonged deflation is not much better than the hyper-inflation of the Carter years... it is a time when the wealthy swallow up most of the wealth and assets, at the expense of the less fortunate.

nite ole.... but they ( the FED ) have been adding liquidity and doing coupon passes too... kind of like driving with a foot on the gas and the other on the brake. Now which one is he pushing on the hardest?????

..I have puzzled over that, just cos, i like to have funnymentals support technicals ( strictly in that order ) and the only thing I could come up with was the "taming" of inflation has killed value of real assets...although being in the commodities business...El-Nino has played some havoc with raw food prices this year...but how long the effects on prices will last is anyones guess. In the very long run, are commods due for a cyclical rebound? Who knows? Or is this part of some new paradigm shift in valuations seeing as we have been partially succesful in taming agricultural cycles? Who knows?

Everyday there are more mouths to feed. improvements in agriculture notwithsatnding, prices cannot really go too much lower before it will effect the farmers and other producers of metals and crude, cannot afford to produce at these levels. That eventual resultant reduction of supply should help find a bottom in prices, and eventually higher prices will ensue. But something very similar to this happened ...

and, this question must be addressed by the "tank now!" crew -- with utils soaring to new highs and bonds surging and stock market volume low, can the market really sink by very much?

As for the techs and the index well for those who want to know I'm out.....As for the gold and oil well they don't look good at the moment nor will they for a while yet either....still my target is the 260 level

On cnbc, Question was "are we going to be in the dark come Jan 1/2000?"
Bennett answers" If it was this weekend, yes! 100% failure. So they have 18 months to fix it."
Reversal rally's in Asia not followed by Europe?
What is going on.
Where's the syncronicity???

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:57 - ID#45173)
Wall St stocks fall early as profit outlook dims
NEW YORK, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks sagged
early Friday after more companies warned of disappointing
earnings and new data overnight confirmed Japan had slipped
into recession.

A slightly higher-than-expected rise in the May Producer
Price Index ( PPI ) was a non-event for the market, analysts
said. PPI rose 0.2 percent both overall and excluding food and
energy prices.

At 0944 EDT/1344 GMT, the Dow industrials were off 10
points at 8801 while the tech-studded Nasdaq fell seven points
to 1743. The S&P500 lost two to 1092.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 09:58 - ID#289357)
Notional gains

Notional wealth

Notional best economy in 50 years

Notional 4.3% employment

Notional 1% inflation rate

Notional money

Thanks for use of the term 'notional' .... it fits this situation better than anything else I can think of.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:01 - ID#187218)
,,, ... by ,,, ... which ,,, ... we ,,, ... lead ,,, ... the ,,, ... way ,,,,, ........

" ...
At a point below zero
There's no place left to go
Six hundred unknown heroes
Were killed like sleeping buffalo

Through the devil's canyon
Across the battlefield
Death has no companion
The spirit is forced to yield

There goes the bandolero
Through the hole in the wall
He's a coward but doesn't care though
In fact, he doesn't care at all

The general that's commanding
He's defending what he fears
While the troops they are depending
On reinforcements from the rear

If God is in the heavens
How can this happen here?
In His name, they used the weapons
For the massacre

There is a point below zero
Where the sun can see the land
Six hundred unknown heroes
Lay dead in the sand
... "

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:10 - ID#286253)
@jims Re Silver inventories

Borrowing silver for production purposes is tantamount to going short. Here is how it works: I borrow a million ozs from Mr. Dealer and send it down to the factory floor where they chop it up, dissolve it and otherwise make it unmarketable. I owe Mr. Dealer a million ozs. Now, an MBA may say that it is a push - I owe a million on my books and I've got a million downstairs. But consider:

A. I can't cover my short with my metal on hand; i.e. I can't send Mr. Dealer the chopped-up, dissolved silver I have - I can only sell the silver-containing product. In the short term, the price I can receive for my product may be fixed ( via contract, catalogue, etc. ) and this leaves me exposed to a rise in silver prices.

B. The lease term tends to be short ( 1-6 months ) . Suppose three months later I go back to Mr. Dealer to roll my lease but the rates now have popped up to 10% ( as they would in a tightening market. ) I say: Mr. Dealer, that's a little rich, perhaps I'll borrow the cash and cover. Now I must buy back the silver at market prices. i.e. I am once again exposed.

You are right about the lender's short position - as soon as I agree to the Silver loan, Mr. Dealer might ( among other things ) buy the physical ( spot ) and offset this with a short forward position. Note that if the Commercials start to unwind their leases, we will see the Dealer's covering these shorts.

A powderkeg indeed.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:15 - ID#284255)
Yes, credit goes to J. Stack
I forgot this.
Great comments though

Spirit moved
The Word
Rippled infinity
Created space

The Word
Primal atom
Channelled energy

The Word
Partitioned eternity
Formed time, aeons,
And precious moments

The Word
Matched atoms with time
Framed galaxies
Cosmic mysteries

The Word
Decreed Sun, Moon
The morning Star
And lovely Earth

The Word
Seeded land sea and sky
Provisioned all
And peopled earth

Spirit with Word
Still dreaming
And contemplates the Work

Spirit with Word
A glory brighter than our Sun
Ponders new mysteries
Work not yet begun

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:17 - ID#252391)
Enough is enough
With constipated prices, poems and posts that were from yesterday running a mile long - think I'll check out.

Today looks like it is shaping into a non event - today.
August gold getting all the way up to 290, almost, silver down a couple of cents with Comex stocks 40K from all time low - tell me about fundlementals.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:25 - ID#284255)
Worth a good look - worth a print out???

Swing chart updated.
Weak, volatile and deadly.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:30 - ID#208393)
Quotes Working!
Gold will head down now.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:31 - ID#286284)
@jims re Silver at 5.14

You sound like Mr. Armstrong. The price we're seeing right now is an artifact of the derivatives market. The silver that was "sold" to get the price where it is will never ( could never ) be delivered. Take away the future's market and the price would settle at a level that would provide for physical market clearing - my guess here is about 10-12 bucks.

As for invisible hordes of silver in Europe, no doubt there is some. Question is: At what price will it come to market? Just because it is there doesn't mean it will be sold. If there was so much available, if those crafty folk in Europe were sitting on mounds of marketable silver, why did such a puny ( in $ terms ) purchase by Buffet crank the lease rates up to 70%? Doesn't this tell you there's not a lot out there?

All this having been said, you may be right. We may get down to 75 mil. ozs. before anyone notices. This is a crazy stupid market. Maintain only a position you can defend and always keep a little powder dry.

Gotta go work for my margin calls. Cheers,


(Fri Jun 12 1998 10:32 - ID#252391)
Sam, thanks for the good explanation
The commercials then can borrow and borrow all they want, rolling over their leases. The big commercial short position is not short open interest on the exchange. Right

We'll have to continue this discussion later.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:18 - ID#284255)
Sorry - will lay off the prose.

And go and smell the a rose.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:21 - ID#93127)
Speeds WSJ postwalking the circle

( 1 ) The yen falls against the dollar because the Bank of Japan is supplying too many yen or the Federal Reserve too few dollars--relative to the demand for each currency

( 2 ) The Use of the Yen as a Reserve Currency ( Peter M. Garber/BOJ )
The yen has not assumed a greater role because sufficient yen instruments are unavailable. The measures that make the yen relatively illiquid result partly from it is quite easy to expand the role of the yen as a reserve currency: raise the supply of Treasury bills to approximately \60 trillion

My object all sublime
I shall achieve in time
To let the punishment fit the crime

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:22 - ID#39857)
Our time has now arrived. As your Queen of hearts died, so ours was
reborn and returned in spirit to her rightful place. Tears after the
rape uncontained, and so mournful, carry us into economic battle with
you dirty colonialists. Colonialism = anal retentive behaviour.

UMMMMM This will be your final warning. Everyone, prepare to die.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:23 - ID#208393)
46 minute cone of silence
penalty awarded to kitkat for pointing out that the quotes only work when the price is heading down

silver plate
(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:30 - ID#289466)
quote of the day
"If you don't think a bear market can last for 18 years, you have't had enough gold stocks in your portfolio."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:31 - ID#229277)
Hedgehog: You are OUT THERE my friend!
Love to have a coupla shots of B&W with you some day and drink in the full breadth of your eloquent rant.

So... do you think gold's gonna go up or down?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:34 - ID#43185)
ready to behave?
Ok, now if everyone will agree to hold their sentiment down this time
I will see about getting these prices turend around.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:35 - ID#229277)
DOW appears to be moving in the manner of a ball bouncing on concrete
It goes down and comes back up, rising a little less each time than the previous bounce.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:37 - ID#253153)
John Disney-- I still stand by my gold forecast
By Aug 15, if the price of gold has not stabilize and begun to rise I'll admit I was wrong, Thanks.
(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:40 - ID#434108)
a mad rush for liquidity
this is the real crisis

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:40 - ID#225273)
APH's silver stop at 5.09 just got taken out.

APH, what's next?

The Preacher

PS. It looks like the Crystallex saga is over. Bob Bishop said if KRY lost he would seriously consider retiring and sending refund checks to his subscribers. This should be interesting.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:41 - ID#187218)
,,, ... for ,,, ... much ,,, ... needed ,,, ... play ,,, ................,,,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,

When the spirit slips away
There's nothing you can do, there's nothing you can say
May the angels be watching over you
When your spirit slips away

When the darkness starts to fall
You're on your own and your back's against the wall
May the angels bring their flame to you
When your spirit slips away

And when the music that makes you blue
Unfolds its secrets, the mysteries are told to you
May the angels sing rejoice to you
That fateful day when your spirit slips away
... "

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:49 - ID#229277)
Gollum: Geez, do what you can. If keeping quiet will help, I'm game
Perhaps if we pool our money and run a few "don't buy gold" ads, we'll get things going.
(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:49 - ID#434108)
when 'U.S. officials' assure us that there is "no ( cause for )
we'd best be alarmed....

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:50 - ID#342376)
Watching Gold prices every day...
Is hazardous to your health. Perhaps I shall hold my positions and come back to check on how they are doing in 5 years. Will the bear market be over by then? The only problem is that I am a Kitcoholic and a new phrase I introduce to Kitco "Goldoholic". You are considered a Goldoholic when you continue to buy gold and gold stocks even after you have lost much money, and then proceed to lose more money... I must find a meeting for Goldoholics immediately. Perhaps Kitco Bar and Grill can be turned into a meeting for Goldoholics? We can all sit at our computers, drink lots of coffee and smoke cigarettes while helping each other resist the temptation to buy more Gold.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:51 - ID#225273)
KRY redux
I've just read a few stories on KRY and was surprised by something. Evidently, this ruling denied KRY the right to further pursue a previous ruling which favored PDG. Even if KRY had won this ruling, it only would have given them the ability to move forward and try to get a previous ruling against them overturned.

This is NOT how the situation has been presented to American and Canadian investors. We have been told that the Venezuelan Supreme Court has already ruled in KRY's favor three times and there's no reason it won't do so again. ( For the record, I am not nor ever have been a KRY shareholder. )

Even two days ago on this forum I read someone saying that KRY had the ruling's on its side.

Newsletter writer John Doody, Gold Stock Analyst, has been right on the money on this situation for many months. But he doesn't have the high profile some of KRY's promoters have.

An awful lot of money has just been lost by the unsuspecting and the exploration business has received another black eye.

The Preacher

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:52 - ID#286249)
WHY Global Business is buying gold--
1. Assignats and the French Revolution.. 36
2. U.S. Greenbacks and the American Civil War.. 37
3. Confederate Dollars and the American Civil War.. 39
4. Conversion of the Puerto Rican Peso into the U.S. Dollar
and Establishment of the Philippine Peso Following the
Spanish-American War ( 1898 ) ....... 42
5. Russian Rubles and the Bolshevik Revolution.... 45
6. Conversion of the Mark into the Reichsmark in Weimar Germany... 49
7. Pound Sterling and the British Abandonment of the Gold Standard. 50
8. The Great Depression and the U.S. Departure from the Gold Standard ... 51
"The Legal Implications of the European Monetary Union", Niall Lenihan
Available at Europa site: paper ECP126en

(Fri Jun 12 1998 11:57 - ID#43185)
Ok, I'll go in the back room and pull a few strings. Just so long as
everyone will keep it cool when the big jump comes. This'll take a few
miunutes. Be right back.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:02 - ID#229277)
Fidelity DOW-o-Meter seems to be stuck at -14pts for over an hour
Golum: while your back there, can you give the Fidelity DOW-o-Meter a coupla whacks? Usually it works just great. Luckily, the Yahoo! US Markets chart is working, shows the DOW down 79pts. A suspicious mind might guess that Fidelity doesn't want their customers to watch the DOW today...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:08 - ID#342376)
Questions to ask yourself to determine if you are a Goldoholic....
Has your family confronted you with the gold coins they have found hidden in the toilet? Do you find yourself searching the internet for any bullish news concerning the POG? Do you believe every dip in the POG is a buying opportunity? Do the posts of GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD get you excited? Do you secretly wish a contract is taken out on Ted Arnold?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:13 - ID#255217)
Sign me up as a charter member of GA.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:13 - ID#350179)
The Great East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere now:
BOJ to keep monetary policy intact amid opposition
Corporate bankruptcies in Japan rise 37.5% in May
Japan's real GDP in FY '97 marks 1st drop in 23 yrs
Taiwan central banker angry at yen-induced depreciation

Some headlines from

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:14 - ID#431263)
Any bets out there as to how low we go today by the close? I'll stick out my neck and say below 8650. Short spiders @ 112 looking good as SOX crashes to another 52 week low! The tech wreck is spreading its poison throughout the system! Latin America will go next! Get out your wallets taxpayers! GM strikers get set for a long one! Many of you may never work for GM again! Nikkei futures again forecasting a plunge below 15,000! Everything's about to get a LOT cheaper in dollar terms as DEFLATION bites deeper and deeper into the core of our economic system! AG MUST LOWER RATES SOON TO AVERT A GLOBAL DEPRESSION! CURRENCY CRISIS WILL EVENTUALLY DESTROY ALL CURRENCIES EXCEPT GOLD! CASH IS KING NOW! WHEN DOLLAR CRASHES, GOLD WILL RULE! PREPARE FOR SOCIAL UNREST EVERYWHERE AND ULTIMATELY MILITARY CONFRONTATION! The forces now unleashed cannot be stopped until they have run their full course. We're in for one hell of a painful ride between now and the year 2000! When the lights go out there will be no light, no heat, no water, no food, and worst of all, NO KITCO!
Japan is wisely exporting its depression to the US through yen depreciation!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:14 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Thailand warns of global depression:

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:14 - ID#287129)
crazytimes (Watching Gold prices every day...)
You just about hit the nail right on the head. Every time I think that gold have FINALLY seen its last bottom, I get more stocks...only to lose 20% within days. This last time, I lost almost 25% within FIVE MINUTES!!!

...and then there are my leveraged PM accounts, bleeding me almost into an early death so that Armostrong and the other ( #$%^& ) shorts can keep on bleeding us into poverty. I'm getting very fed up with the incessant disinformation campaign and rumor/media mill designed to keep the PM's artificially low. WHY IN GOD'S GREEN EARTH can't they at least let gold go back to a realistic level at the $340 to $360 range??????????

( or should I call myself "Frustrated"? )

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:15 - ID#432214)
Caper & Fidelity Great work!!!
Keep digging, This anti-gold advertising will also undermine all precious metal funds they sell! Just went to the Fidelity web site and they sell all the PM funds. If this anti-gold ad is true we should call the funds and get the fund managers to blast these weasles.

Anybody know if any of the Fidelity funds contain any gold holdings? If Fidelity owns PM stocks within their funds they are undermining their own funds with these ads...

Go Gold
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:18 - ID#434108)
Velocity of Demand Deposits, NY Banks

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:18 - ID#39857)
Listen Carefully. Tibet is a side show. OKAY.
Look what merkan capitalistic fervour did. Listen Clowns of the
Clintonista, your Radioheads suck hard on your Pearl Jams. OKAY.
Our Queen Lives.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:21 - ID#35571)
@Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
Let's see, if they advertise against gold and gold goes down, can't
the people holding gold bring some kind of class action suit?

Mike Stewart
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:22 - ID#270253)
2 subjects XAU Chart/Dreifontein share swap
I just looked at the Gold Fields home page and found an announcement from May 15th. Minority interest in Dreifontein by the public ( Gold Fields and Anglogold have most of it ) will be swapped for Gold Fields Limited shares. The rate has yet to be determined. Gold Fields produces 3 million ounces per year, but is the leasted favoured of South Africans these days. It is trading at 52 wk lows. Very weak in a weak market. I own some already. See I wish that John Disney would have mentioned something this important to us.

I use TC2000 charts from Worden Brothers. On a weekly XAU chart going back to 1984, I have created envelopes ( bands ) around the 20 week MA. These envelopes usually contain intermediate moves. On occassion they do not hold and the index hits levels TWO envelopes ( bands ) away from the norm. This occurred in 1987 and 1993 on the upside, and December 1997 on the downside. It see NO examples where the index hit the second envelope twice . It hit the double envelope, turned to hit the single envelope trend on the other side and then returned to a single envelope. That is exactly where we are now. We hit the lower double envelope in December, rallied to the single envelope above the 20wk MA in April and have now hit the lower envelope yesterday and today. Looks normal to me.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:25 - ID#35571)
Ok, I fiddled with the silver thingy and pulled the stocks thing good and
hard ( it came off in my hand ) , but I was afraid to do much with the gold
thing cause it looked kind of shaky until I cam out and saw how I did.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:25 - ID#26362)
A little humor while Rome burns
A Catholic, Moslem and Mormen were talking. The Catholic said, I have four sons, another and I will have enought for a basketball team. The Muslem said, I have ten sons, another and I will have enought for a football team. The Mormen said, I have 17 wives, another and I will have enought for a golf course.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27 - ID#187218)
,,, ... I ,,, ... will ,,, ... see ,,, ... you ,,, ... ANOTHER ,,, ... day ! ,,,, .....,.,.,.,.,.,.,

" ...
In France, they've got a dance
A feel real crazy dance
A touch of class and a dash of romance
Feel that crazy dance


In Spain, they give it a name
A real chic cheeky name
One you know it you're not the same
But you really take a chance


In Brazil, they got a pill
A real hard power packed pill
Take one too many you'll feel quite ill
But you really take a change

... "
aWaYtOtrAvElThEeAsTeRnSeAbOaRd---- the fort-night-and-then-some-awaits !
My crystal ball tells me that while I am away ManY changes will occur ...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27 - ID#340302)
How Japan Can Turn Things Around....
Funny but sometimes I get the absurd impression that there really are people out there reading my various analyses ( see my early morning post on STAGFLATION ) . Oh, it's probably just my usual megalomania, right fellas?

Anyway, this morning, Insana on CNBC discussed the possibility of Japan selling off its Treasuries, repatriating capital, then raising interest rates high enough to compete with American rates such that Japanese capital no longer would have any incentive to flee home.

He dismissed the notion as tantamount to "economic war" with the US...something he imagined Japan would never contemplate. my mind, America has already declared economic war with Japan via its non-interventionist stance in the Japanese Yen's free-fall. By Rubin telling Japan that America has no intention in assisting them with their economic problems ( It's Your Problem, buddy, Not Mine! ) , then the Japanese must surely imagine themselves to be the NO.1 suckers in the world...passively and stupidly holding a massive amount of US Treasury debt while, at the same time, keeping domestic interest rates so low that domestic capital has absolutely no incentive to "stay home."

There is only one plausible solution to Japan's woes...a radical economic strategy to cure its US Dollar addiction. It must sell its US Treasuries quickly while at the same time hiking interest rates well above American levels. In the competitive interest rate war that results, Japan cannot win UNLESS it demands at least partial payment for its products in a "nation-neutral" asset such as Gold...and also insists it will pay for its vital imports ( such as oil ) in partial payments of Gold. Thus, the net effect is that Japan need not be compelled to buy any gold, using gold received for exports to pay for gold necessary for imports ( an imperative condition since Japan has no indigenous in-ground reserves ) forces its trading partners to buy the Yellow. By doing so, Japan drastically reduces its need for American dollars and raises world demand for both Yen and Gold. It leaves its trading partners holding all those fabulous US Dollar surpluses rather than holding them itself ( then they can learn for themselves what all those US dollars are truly worth ) . Since Japan supplies so many vital products across the world, then I think most of its trading partners ( except the US ) would agree to this condition. With the Gold price rapidly appreciating, Japan would garner real wealth gains too.

The entire strategy would allow Japan to pave the road toward a more realistic global currency system as US Dollar hegemony is causing far too many distortions in the world economy today.

Although this is a radical prescription and ( as Insana says ) would certainly be tantamount to economic war, nevertheless, I think a radical measure must ( and will ) be undertaken by Japan to escape its escalating malaise leading which must ultimately lead to all-out Depression.

For those America-Love-It-Or-Leave-IT chauvinists who doubt Japan's ability or resolve to embark on such a "suicidal mission," then they need only reflect upon the hara kiri mentality of the Japanese people. Remember the suicidal Japanese bombers from WWII?

Rubin is playing with fire in refusing to intervene actively and beneficially in the Japanese free-fall. His pro-America, pro-Wall Street orientation at any cost will certainly spell the downfall of the extant American-dominated global economic status quo. As such, he will have the notable honor of being memorialized as the worst Treasury Secretary in America's history.

In the past, the Japanese have proven that, if push comes to shove and their backs are pressed to the wall, their own lives and welfare are secondary to national pride.

Fireworks ahead.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27 - ID#350179)
What will be the impact of the quarterly 401 ( k ) statements for the US "buy and hold" crowd which will probably show that, even though you contributed $X to your account, the current balance is now *LESS* than it was the last time you checked. What? I thought it was always supposed to go up...
Well, on the plus side - gambling in gold MF's leaves me with no such delusion. : (
Now, whose working on the year10k problem...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27 - ID#373284)
there are mountains of gold, silver and platinum on MY lawn...all are welcome
the only rule is you must grant one of the children their wish...this edict id is resolute............Thus spake the BARBARIAN...the lesson begins..........Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..............

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27 - ID#36156)
My name is HenryD and I'm a GOLDOHOLIC!

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:31 - ID#26362)
Viagra alert. Reports are coming in all over the world that Viagra is causing severe visual problems. Women's eyes have been potting out of their heads.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:32 - ID#261322)
Golden Cheeshead, I agree with you
I hope and think you're right. I also think that part of the reason that the Chinese government so vehemently denies any future devaluation, is that they fear a stampede to gold. What else would you do if you knew ahead of time that your government was going to devalue? The US is the biggest debtor nation- why hold the paper? ( No offence intended to the US ) . THe band is ready to snap, and the bubble is ready to burst.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:34 - ID#66136)
CRAZYTIMES You have good company as evidenced by the quality on this site.
I've traded PM stocks since 1972 with both fun and profit. Now I sit with would have, could have, and should have. But, remain most comfortable with my negative positions. Next week off to Sweden and parts of Europe and will only give it a glance. I'm seeing some big blocks on upticks and am convinced smart money is accumulating . Most except RSA stocks are quite oversold and may stay that way till Fall. Silver and related issues are doing well. Sit tight and have a pleasant Summer. Late Aug should get exciting for us.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:35 - ID#66136)
CRAZYTIMES You have good company as evidenced by the quality on this site.
I've traded PM stocks since 1972 with both fun and profit. Now I sit with would have, could have, and should have. But, remain most comfortable with my negative positions. Next week off to Sweden and parts of Europe and will only give it a glance. I'm seeing some big blocks on upticks and am convinced smart money is accumulating . Most except RSA stocks are quite oversold and may stay that way till Fall. Silver and related issues are doing well. Sit tight and have a pleasant Summer. Late Aug should get exciting for us.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:38 - ID#373284)
WetGold, Namaste' try this portion................................
Like the trickery of a rainbow on the empty horizon,
Soon to vanish like mist
Shedding just
One tear droplet
On the cheek of Time, shining and undefiled -
This Taj Mahal.

Rabindranath Tagore

freeing sea lion from their kelp...spanking ivory...rescuing Joels Billy in NY...meanest thing that ever played ballfoot on the Green...And you thought it was just a song...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:41 - ID#176200)
@crazytimes...What else is there to do?
I too feel your pain. I have soul searched and rechecked my premisises
many times. The paper pushers of the world are a strong lot, and we have
all under estimated them. Damm, I have cash in hand and am chomping at
the bit to buy more! ( a feeble cry for help ) . I think one day we will
be proved beyond any shadow of doubt to be right. Then, we also may be
hunted for our store of wealth by the powers that be. So be it, They will
get nothing but denial and a hug of gratitude from me!
I believe, that once people see paper for what it really is, I will
be able to buy a nice diesel pusher motorhome for a few sheckles of gold.
Dream on, the wife says. I tell her that dreams do come true!
Keep the faith, at least for another year!

Best regards, O.L.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:44 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel back?
What..did Gold mysteriously hit 330 in my absence? Wait let me check....OOPS!!! Is that a 286 I see????

( Two-Eight-Nine, the Goose drank wine.... )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:46 - ID#253153)
All: What shall we do ? ( my opinion )
We are in the beginning of of financial crisis. A Dow close tonight below 8780 will confirm that the TOP is in and the beginning of a BEAR market. If so, the bulk of the Dow decline is still ahead of us. This SECULAR bear market will continue for a few years with temporary rallies in the intrim. We will be dealing with a world wide MONSTER bear not familiar to many on this forum. Many are confused and don't know what to expect or do. Forget about the politicians. They can't help us. For those in need need of income, long term treasuries will provide safety as well as income but their yield will decline as interest rates and economic activity decline. For those seeking safety and large capital appreciation gold and mining shares will do. With 5000 years of history,
there is no UNCERTAINTY about gold and silver. The people of the world have always attached great value to gold and silver and I doubt that it will ever change. The world can't have prosperity with floating currencies because the confusion of it all leads to depression and the downfall of the politicians who sponsored it. With the collapsing markets all over the world, it's becoming apparent that trade war is about to begin. We have got to get back to fixed currencies backed by gold and convertible into gold. Markets anticipate events ahead by 6-12 months. If a depression is to begin by the middle of 1999, markets should begin to protect themself by going down and at the same time gold should stabilize and begin a slow rise. Cash also will become very valuable and scarce. Hang in there , there is nothing anyone of us can do much about it.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:47 - ID#253153)
All: What shall we do ? ( my opinion )
We are in the beginning of of financial crisis. A Dow close tonight below 8780 will confirm that the TOP is in and the beginning of a BEAR market. If so, the bulk of the Dow decline is still ahead of us. This SECULAR bear market will continue for a few years with temporary rallies in the intrim. We will be dealing with a world wide MONSTER bear not familiar to many on this forum. Many are confused and don't know what to expect or do. Forget about the politicians. They can't help us. For those in need need of income, long term treasuries will provide safety as well as income but their yield will decline as interest rates and economic activity decline. For those seeking safety and large capital appreciation gold and mining shares will do. With 5000 years of history,
there is no UNCERTAINTY about gold and silver. The people of the world have always attached great value to gold and silver and I doubt that it will ever change. The world can't have prosperity with floating currencies because the confusion of it all leads to depression and the downfall of the politicians who sponsored it. With the collapsing markets all over the world, it's becoming apparent that trade war is about to begin. We have got to get back to fixed currencies backed by gold and convertible into gold. Markets anticipate events ahead by 6-12 months. If a depression is to begin by the middle of 1999, markets should begin to protect themself by going down and at the same time gold should stabilize and begin a slow rise. Cash also will become very valuable and scarce. Hang in there , there is nothing anyone of us can do much about it.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:47 - ID#253153)
All: What shall we do ? ( my opinion )
We are in the beginning of of financial crisis. A Dow close tonight below 8780 will confirm that the TOP is in and the beginning of a BEAR market. If so, the bulk of the Dow decline is still ahead of us. This SECULAR bear market will continue for a few years with temporary rallies in the intrim. We will be dealing with a world wide MONSTER bear not familiar to many on this forum. Many are confused and don't know what to expect or do. Forget about the politicians. They can't help us. For those in need need of income, long term treasuries will provide safety as well as income but their yield will decline as interest rates and economic activity decline. For those seeking safety and large capital appreciation gold and mining shares will do. With 5000 years of history,
there is no UNCERTAINTY about gold and silver. The people of the world have always attached great value to gold and silver and I doubt that it will ever change. The world can't have prosperity with floating currencies because the confusion of it all leads to depression and the downfall of the politicians who sponsored it. With the collapsing markets all over the world, it's becoming apparent that trade war is about to begin. We have got to get back to fixed currencies backed by gold and convertible into gold. Markets anticipate events ahead by 6-12 months. If a depression is to begin by the middle of 1999, markets should begin to protect themself by going down and at the same time gold should stabilize and begin a slow rise. Cash also will become very valuable and scarce. Hang in there , there is nothing anyone of us can do much about it.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:48 - ID#26362)
Whoa, I say whoa!
Why is gold falling out of bed. Did we do something to really p... the Man upstairs off. Life is an after dinner joke and the God's are still laughing about it. They must be enormously amused by the formation of GA. Giddyup Gold.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:48 - ID#269409)
@ Friday Gold Market analysis (summarized)

PS, Has anyone else noticed the inverse correlation between Farfel Gold cheerleading and POG? It's a very important T/A indicator that all should add to their repetoire, it's as reliable as anything I've seen yet.....

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:48 - ID#26362)
Whoa, I say whoa!
Why is gold falling out of bed. Did we do something to really p... the Man upstairs off. Life is an after dinner joke and the God's are still laughing about it. They must be enormously amused by the formation of GA. Giddyup Gold.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:51 - ID#269409)
Years before full confidence returns to Gold shares sector?
ANALYSIS-Tight controls post-Bre-X may help London

By Martin Hayes

LONDON, June 11 ( Reuters ) - Tougher controls being mooted in Canada following the 1997 Bre-X Minerals scandal will go some
way towards restoring investor confidence in the resource sector, although the market is likely to remain bruised for years,
industry specialists said.

And because Canada's reputation has been tarnished by the gold mine fraud, exploration funding activity may swing more towards

``It was long overdue that the Toronto Stock Exchange ( TSE ) smartened up its act ... any moves are positive, but it will take years
to recover from Busang,'' a director at a London firm specialising in exploration financing said.

Busang, owned by Alberta-based Bre-X Minerals Ltd and once touted as the gold find of the century, proved to be a massive hoax
after independent testing revealed data was falsified on a massive scale. The scandal wiped out $3 billion in investments.

On Monday, the TSE and Ontario Securities Commission issued a report recommending measures such as requiring mining firms
to appoint a licensed professional to review and sign public disclosures of key information, including drill results and reserve

It also called for the adoption of a code of national standards for company news releases and a uniform set of securities and stock
exchange rules to govern mining firms.

``During the halycon days of the exploration boom Toronto was earmarked as the mining centre of the world,'' the director, who
declined to be identified, said. Vancouver was perceived as riskier, ``but its due diligence was better than Toronto.''

The U.K. market, though, escaped the fallout from Bre-X, so there was now an opportunity to rebuild its dormant mining
exploration sector, said Malcolm Burne, Chairman of Golden Prospect Mining Co Plc, a London-based mining investment

He told Reuters there were now many small Canadian and Australian companies trading at a big discount to cash and asset value
which were ripe for merger and aquisition ( M and A ) by ``vulture'' funds, which build stakes in special situations.

``Many junior companies whose share prices have already collapsed will be in need of refinancing for the exploration projects and
this can be done or achieved on very favourable terms,'' Burne said.

Share prices in the sector had fallen so low that there were opportunities to buy up undervalued assets, the director said. Much of
that business was expected to take place on the London market.

M and A activity was also taking place among major mining companies, with significant industry consolidation already seen this
year, Graham Birch of Mercury Asset Management ( MAM ) , managers of Mercury World Mining Trust Plc

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:51 - ID#227168)
Blame it on --Soros and his bandits
C$ - Out with a nice loss -Every time I look at the Aussie dollar ---Maybe Canada next  All the metal shorts are fine ---If Farfel would only keep his promises Away to use the post hole digger ---Planting a light to see in the darkness.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:52 - ID#269207)
JP You simply have to see a Dr. about
that stuttering thing, you kn kn kn know

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:53 - ID#342376)
@ All
I have only been in gold for 9 months or so. I have had losses but I know there are many here that have losses much more than mine and for far longer. Forgive my arrogance. I hope we all see the day soon where Gold will shine, but I hope that the price we pay for finally being on the right side is not a world in tatters...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:54 - ID#431263)
I agree!

I agree!

I agree!


And if you have any enemies, keep telling them to BUY THE DIPS!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:54 - ID#229277)
Gollum: Aw, geeeez! Now look what you went and done!
The DOW's down 114. Are you sure you didn't trip over the plug or something? Looks like it's just running on momentum, winding down.

Unlike the Japanese government plowing Postal Savings funds into the Nikkei yesterday to keep it over 15000 at the close, the Fed ain't gonna spend Social Security funds on the DOW today. I say we see well under 8000 after the real action starts after 2 pm. We might even test out them newfangled circuit breakers you installed in May ( thanks, by the way. The old ones s*cked ) . I guess they flip when we go down 20% in a couple of hours? Let's see, that's about 1700 pnts, that gets us to around 7000.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:54 - ID#340302)
@LGB...has anybody noticed...
...the inverse relationship between your blowhard statments concerning silver, platinum, and palladium..

...and their rapid descent into the toilet?



(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:54 - ID#255217)
I can certainly see your argument as viable for one with an American mentality. I tend to think along the same lines. But we ARE Americans and not Japanese. And the Japanese of the nineties are a couple of gererations removed from the WWII kamakazi mentality.

I don't pretend to understand the Japanese economic philosophy. Why they chose to maintain such incredibly low interest rates for so long is a mystery to my way of thinking. It mystifies me even further that they have allowed the current situation to continue on for so long. Maybe they kept thinking that a turnaround would occur somewhere along the way and that persistence would ultimately overcome.

At any rate, I think you are correct in your assesment that something will happen SOON to change the deteriorating state of affairs. Survival DOES become paramount when all else fails.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:56 - ID#269409)
I don't care, I'm buying mo... uh I mean I'm buying PLATINUM, on Monday.... ( and a wee bit mo' silver )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:56 - ID#269207)
JP and as for bears
it best to stay behind them wayyyyyy behind them, the further the better.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 12:59 - ID#176200)
A helicopter was flying around above Seattle yesterday when
an electrical malfunction disabled all of the aircraft's electronic
navigation and communication equipment. Due to the clouds and haze
the pilot could not determine his position or course to steer to
the airport. The pilot saw a tall building, flew toward it, circled,
drew a handwritten sign and held it in the helicopter's window.
The sign said "WHERE AM I ?" in large letters.

People in the tall building quickly responded to the aircraft,
drew a large sign and held it in a building window. Their sign said,
"YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER.' The pilot smiled, waved, looked at his
map and determine the course to steer to SEATAC
( Seattle/Tacoma ) airport and landed safely.

After they were on the ground, the co-pilot asked the pilot how
the "YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER" sign helped determine their
position. The pilot responded, "I knew that had to be the
MICROSOFT building because they gave me a technically correct
but completely useless answer."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:00 - ID#356379)
The madness of crowds

No, I'm not talking about the rest of the world who keeps pumping dollars, yen, etc. into the US stock market. I'm talking about us, the dumbs**t, ever-optimistic gold bugs who can ignore the overwhelming evidence contrary to our positions and just keep making noises about the next big, dynamic, and always unexpected rally in gold!

After 16 months of hearing almost non-stop predictions of the imminent rise in the price of gold, I'm just a LITTLE SKEPTICAL of the current round of "bottom spike" comments and how all we have to do is hold on and keep the faith.

I'm also starting to thing that seasonal tendencies and cycle theories are something you play with while waiting to lose yoyr a*s. Everytime someone points out a TA indicator it gets violated. Why bother?

I'm getting sick of this crap! When nukes and falling currencies don't cause a run-up in gold, what will? What does the rest of the world know that we can't seem to understand? I feel like my PM stocks will languish until my unborn grandkids finally give up and sell the.

The worst part is like too many of us, I'm scared to death that if/when I sell my stock the lon-awaited rally will finally occur and I'll miss it!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:02 - ID#269409)
DOW>..Not in Kansas anymore Toto
Ding Dong the the DOW is dead
Which old DOW, the wicked DOW
Ding dong, the wisked DOW is deaad

Hi ho the merryo
Sing it high and sing Kitco
Ding dong the wicked DOW is deaaad

( Hmmm, on the other hand was that 5 billion I saw flowing into mutuals
last week? )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:03 - ID#212197)
Japan's Problems: Is The Low Interest Rate Evil Intention or Stupidity?
It seems quite obvious that the Japanese interest rate of 0.5% is depleting the Japanese capital markets and makes the Yen-Dollar-Carry blooming. This is pure, primitive financial speculation without any constructive purpose. Who forces the BOJ to keep this low interest rate.

They cannot be so stupid not to know that this low interest rate has exactly the opposite effect of what it would have if Japan wouldn't be internationally connected. If Japan would run an island economy the classical school of economy would teach: low interest rate stimulates capital investment and therefore stimulates the economy. The Yen-Dollar-Carry makes sure that the exact opposite becomes reality.

The Japanese industry doesn't need to compete on the golbal market with extremely low prices. They compete with high quality. They cannot "export themselves out of the recession with low prices". That is nonsense. With the exception of the "financial overhead structure" nothing is wrong with the Japanese economy.

I'm very sceptical with what Rubin says: let the Yen sink to 150! That might be teporarily seem to be good for the US$, but not for the American economy and not for the Japanese economy. This is a typical short sighted view of economics, with an eye on the financial markets only, as if the financial markets are for ever detached from the real physical economy.

To get the financial house of Japan in order they need to
-increase the interest rate by two percent minimum
- sell two thirds of their t-not
- buy gold to back the Yen.

If they don't do that it will not be the self-dynamic of the "markets" what will ruin the world economy. It will be either stupidity or an evil intetion or both.

And if we have it to do with evil intention it might be part of a grande scale plan to get the world back to a superprofitable war economy. We havn't had this for quite a while.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:05 - ID#269409)
Thoughts.....Oil & Gold
.....are flowing in the same direction

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:08 - ID#187218)
,,,,,,, an ,,,,,,,,, ode ,,,,,, from ,,,,, AG ,,,,,,,,,,,,, -Camdessus ,,,, -IMF ,,,,,
paper people ,,,,,,,,, -fiat creators ,,,,,, -Y2K promoters ,,,,,,

" ...
Don't believe me if I tell you
Not a word of this is true
Don't believe me if I tell you
Especially if I tell you that I'm in love with you

Don't believe me if I tell you
That I wrote this song for you
There might be some other silly pretty girl
I'm singing it to

Don't believe a word
For words are only spoken
Your heart is like a promise
Made to be broken

Don't believe a word
Words can tell lies
And lies are no comfort
When there's tear in your eyes

Don't believe me if I tell you
Not a word of this is true
Don't believe me if I tell you
Especially if I tell you that I'm in love with you

Don't believe a word
... "


(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:08 - ID#269207)
JP assuming there are/is what we would call governments existing as we know
them today, do you think we will have barter wars instead of trade wars, and if so what will toilet paper be worth?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:09 - ID#431263)
Beginning to shut down America! Sure sign of a market top! DOW DOWN 125+!
Hey guys, it's only 1:00! No need to panic till 3:00!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:10 - ID#333127)
to Ridgerunner
I feel the same way. If I sell I quarantee gold goes up.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:10 - ID#411163)
Skip and Golden Cheeshead
Skip, this trashing of the gold market seems to be, at least to me the announcement of a trend change. The trend is the whole world going to hell in handbasket. It will continue until a panic takes place, soon I think. When gold turns it will be fast! In the mean time we just have to change underware more and more often.
Golden Cheesehead-I will take a guess that the Dow tanks in the last
hour to around 8500. The big boys will be busy this weekend!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:13 - ID#269207)
If like the world as you know then sell. For this reality is probably better than the one we contemple regardless.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:13 - ID#233199)
@ LGB:" Thoughts.....Oil & Gold -..flowing the same direction..

Yeah ...down the crapper....

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:14 - ID#368244)
Go back to sleep!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:14 - ID#93127)
ONE example of HOW the no inflation game has been played

Since February 1994, the Latvian exchange rate regime is a peg to the IMF Special Drawing Rights ( SDR ) . IT HAS BEEN USED AS THE LINCHPIN OF THE MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION.

COMMENT: It would appear that any number of surprising things are "pegged" to the SDR, under-the-covers of course. It was most revealing to discover that the European Commission has MANY 'enterprises' ( e.g. consultation, export contracts for mid-governement,etc. ) pegged to the

AND the SDR is, as one European financial glossary puts it, "paper-gold".
Remember the Telecom ( ) contracts where 3.xxGF = 1 SDR?
Or 15.xxGF = 1 SDR?
Are we to label this the "New Paradigm Gold Standard"?

Remember too, that on both sides of the Atlantic, the GF is defined as
a "Settlement Currency".

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:17 - ID#253153)
Dave, I think we will have both trade wars as well a s barter wars
More likely trade wars as each country tries to protect its domestic economy and work force. Today, there is no way knowing what the values of various currencies may be. Many will be devalued or disappeared replaced by new currencies.
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:19 - ID#434108)
NATO set to bomb Kosovo targets

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:21 - ID#229277)
Ridgerunner: the trick is to stay the heck away from this site
Watching for gold prices to go up is like sitting on the San Andreas waiting for an earthquake. You can count on it happening... eventually. But every time there's a noise, you're going to jump up and say, "Oh my god! What was that!" You're gonna drive yourself nuts.

The place to be for the past 20 years has been the equity markets. I hope you've been there. I have, and it's be berry, berry good to me. First stocks rose because corporations became more productive and profitable. Then they rose due to speculation. The mutual fund machine has been selling the self-fulfilling prophesy of stocks as a safe, endless, high-yield investment for so many years that even pros who ought to know better have been fooled. Gold has been a really, really bad investment for all that time. Before gold prices can rise, there have to be more buyers. The public must change its belief that stocks are a safe investment and gold is not. A stock market crash will rock their world. Still, public perception doesn't turn on a dime. But it will change. Has before. Will again.

The only position to take on gold is long. Come to this site for fun and to hear the rants and prognostications of many interesting minds. Follow comments on gold prices on a daily basis at your peril.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:22 - ID#269207)
JP if we have one or the other, or even both,
than paper will be worth no more than asse wipe whatever form it is in.
You might be hard pressed to find anyone to credit any paper, with any other value. And if that is the case, I prefer newsprint over the slick stuff in magazines.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:24 - ID#242325)
Let's call a spade a spade:

Farfel: Admit it. You like many others here ( myself included ) were wrong on POG short-term. Went way down contrary to our expecations. Reflects ECB holdings below expecations and intensifying deflationay wave out of Asia. Turn probably coming before long, but POG could still go considerably lower in the interim.

RJ and LGB: Good gold calls but not so good on the whites. You too are human and can blow it.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:25 - ID#210220)
Oil and Gold
Maybe if ME oil bought gold mines at the depressed stoc prices, then
reqiured payment in gold for oil, ...... Just dreaming!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:25 - ID#43185)
here comes the bounce!
How long we got till the market closes?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:26 - ID#253153)
Dave , by the way
I did see a doctor and was told that I'm very creative and very normal.
How about you, have you seen a doctor ?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:27 - ID#431263)
Hang in there, mein Herr! Why did you buy gold in the first place if'n you weren't convinced of its value as a long-term storage of wealth? Remember the comments of ANOTHER: "Your wealth isn't as great as your currency says it is!" It's all relative. The only currency where gold doesn't look like a winner is the US$ and that's because the US$, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, MUST NOT FAIL as the world's premier RESERVE CURRENCY! But when the EURO is implemented fully on Jan. 1, 1999 all that will change! Then the dollar will be sold for EUROS, its value will collapse, prices in dollars will inflate and GOLD WILL SOAR! At that point you will KNOW why you purchased gold, suffered the slings and arrows of misfortune in holding it, and wished, in hindsight, of course, WHY YOU DIDN'T BUY MORE WHEN ITS WAS SO CHEAP AND READILY AVAILABLE! Think on these things, mein Herr, and consider yourself fortunate to have suffered through the pain of being a contrarian--for, in the end, you will be right, and who knows, maybe rich as well! What is more, you will have disciplined yourself to THINK, SACRIFICE, PERSERVERE and SURVIVE! I think we call that CHARACTER!
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:28 - ID#434108)
the drowning horde
our first major casualty

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:30 - ID#24135)
Am I being terse ??
To tom Stewart..
Sorry .. but I dont really follow the Dries stuff
very closely as I would be unlikely to ever buy any.
I dont feel guilty however since I have been selling
out for the last month or so and telling everybody
that. The general reation was that I was sick in the
At the present gold price no one should want to own
a gold mine .. some are simply less awful than others.

For Salty
You win your bet.

For JP
Oh how about august 15 hey ?? how about august 15
2005 ?? You dont want much!!. You're wrong already.
Whether you admit it or not is unimportant. What
matters is if you learn anything from the experience
and it looks like the answer's "no". Not my problem.

For Reify ..
You are always invited .. er but maybe dont bring
your gold studies. Offer is pretty well off as I sold
out last of the deeps today and even some options. But
I still have a few rangy left .. These devils are hard
to sell.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:30 - ID#269207)
JP no, they would give me an appointment, because I wasn't
normal and was too creative, and have a bad attitude besides.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:32 - ID#242325)
selling climax?
With gold shares eroding rapidly day after day, a final selling climax should be evident quite soon. Next week a good bet. Look for a huge move down one morning on tremendous volume, but a positive close.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:32 - ID#431263)

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:37 - ID#229277)
Gollum: It's not even 2pm EST yet, when the real action starts
Then we got 2 more hours to go after that.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:37 - ID#24135)
I got an idea ..
Mr Cheesehead..
Why dont you write with ALL capital
letters ..
You have a great attitude .. buying
gold loses money but builds character
through sufferring.. That's the spirit..
sweet are the uses of adversity.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:38 - ID#24135)
I got an idea ..
Mr Cheesehead..
Why dont you write with ALL capital
letters ..
You have a great attitude .. buying
gold loses money but builds character
through sufferring.. That's the spirit..
sweet are the uses of adversity.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:39 - ID#404189)
SO, the rumor is out funds heavy short the Rand, due to exhausted foreign exchange reserves. I am correct in assuming the S. Africans have been blowing out gold reserves too. And when they do devalue the currency officially these sales subside? Seems logical.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:40 - ID#253153)
Mr. Disney---I stand by my date, Aug 15, 1998

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:40 - ID#255217)
I'm afraid that the market may be more resilient than we give it credit for. Mr. Dow might pop back up and borrow from Mark Twain's quote that "The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated". But it DOES look kind of sickly, doesn't it? Your reference to the $5 billion going into mutuals does make you wonder.

Someone took me to task recently for being gleeful about the apparently ailing Dow, because it was dragging gold down with it. My response to that is surgery is not without its pain and there will be some bloodletting along the way. The extinction of evil in the long run will benefit those of pure heart and good will. Gold WILL come shining through, ultimately.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:41 - ID#261322)
Golden Cheesehead and the Euro
My biggest fear is that when the Euro comes in on Jan 1, 1999, is that as the US dollar collapses, that the flight will be towards the Euro and less to gold. I doubt it, but it's a bit of a worry. Hopefully there'll be enough conflict over the Euro itself to prevent that. I doubt that it'll take till Jan 1, 1999 though. This should happen much sooner ( dollar collapse )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:41 - ID#261322)
Golden Cheesehead and the Euro
My biggest fear is that when the Euro comes in on Jan 1, 1999, is that as the US dollar collapses, that the flight will be towards the Euro and less to gold. I doubt it, but it's a bit of a worry. Hopefully there'll be enough conflict over the Euro itself to prevent that. I doubt that it'll take till Jan 1, 1999 though. This should happen much sooner ( dollar collapse )

Cage Rattler
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:42 - ID#33184)
$1 = R5.31

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:42 - ID#431263)
herr dizzy-
you wouldn't have all your savings in rand now would you? should make those deeeeeeep mines extremely profitable, eh?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:47 - ID#431263)
HERR bmacd-
Americans will NEVER buy EUROS. BUT they WILL BUY GOLD once the dollar collapses!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:49 - ID#210235)
@Silverbaron, Thanks.
That quote about "Notional gains" did catch my eye. As Gollum pointed out, the money that went into the stock market came out again ( to the seller ) the same day. There is no 13 trillion dollar cache of money somewhere growing in a Wall Street bank. It's all gone, turned into Beemers and $13 million condos. All this "marking to market" of our portfolios each day is so much illusion. Like Santa or the Easter Bunny, once you know it's just pretend, it loses alot of its mystique.

( Tolerant1 - the exceptions are Babar and Winnie Pooh, who, of course, are real. Kisses to Queen Celeste ( Your Mumm ) .

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:49 - ID#227238)
Old Gold: You're right, on the gold shares but I don't think the turn is yet be. The long term XAU has been riding a down channel. Since Feb '96 it has remained inside that channel religiously.

Presently it is moving toward the bottom of the channel with a likely reversal at 60 or slightly less.

There is nothing in the long term ( monthly ) XAU chart that would indicate a change of sentiment. All bull moves we have seen, so far, are nothing but countertrend rallies. It would take a "V" bottom of awesome dimension to change the chart appearance. IMO, nothing short of the low 90's on the XAU would be of any significance, right now.

Will post the XAU charts later today.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:51 - ID#24135)
Dont think so..
I dont think rsa has been selling
much gold .. Rand has taken quite a
thumping in the last few weeks..
Genetic advisor foresaw this and
I had time to switch most rand proceeds
from sales into dollars.
We're at about 5.3 now .. He sees
5.4 to 5.6. Interest rates up 2 %.
.. some restrictions placed on
speculation .. It looks like the
effect will be about half that of
the attack on the aussie $.

The Hatt
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:51 - ID#364255)
If you own paper this is your opportunity to shove it up the big boys A## as they are trying to rescue the market. They will show strength here as part of their distribution plan of passing their paper to to the weak hands. The Mutual fund meltdown will begin soon and the paper ponzi game is about to end. Head for the hills everyone and by the way take some gold with you!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:56 - ID#269207)
@ Argent Damn, and i just invested in a bread maker and ten lbs of flour
to get me through this HARD METAL time. It casts no shadow, no reflection and does not die even with stakes of Aga and Au driven thru it's heart, I guess it is time for either Pb or E=mc sq.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:56 - ID#431263)
herr dizzy-
what comes after 5.6? Sounds like the Mexican Peso to me!

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:57 - ID#24135)
What can I say ??
Earl ..
Re your comment to old gold ..
BUT that I agree 100 %.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:57 - ID#26467)
Solar Minima
FWIW,The Solar minima will be upon us,starting next year
with low precipitation and unseasonal cold temperatures.
Food and Energy call option could become highly profitable.
This is a 88 -89 year cycle that is precipitated with
rockbottom prices two year prior.July is or will be an excellent
time frame.
Gold should have a rally coming Monday to make room for the
major drop this season .Have a profitable and good day.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 13:59 - ID#93127)
June 12, 1998
Finance ministry, SARB, banks meet on global crisis
from the Ministry of Finance
The meeting took place between representatives of the private banks, the SA Reserve Bank and the minister of finance. The minister stressed the operational independence of parties, the constitutional independence of the Reserve Bank, the responsibilities of banks to their shareholders and depositors and government to the electorate.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:00 - ID#286253)
Ar we gonna get a nice kick for a finish?

John Disney__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:00 - ID#24135)
YOU sound like the Mexican Peso..

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:04 - ID#269409)
@ Old Gold, Farfel
Infallibility and omniscience? Only from Hepcat boyz, only from Hepcat. Yes the whites have dropped. No, they don't appear as sickly as Gold. What's a better profit opp right now? Gold, Platinum, or Silver?

I've bought nothing lately, as I've said many times, I'm sittin on the sidelines with my cash ( and a big stash o' silver bought at $ 4.50 average ) . So now I see juicy opportunities and will buy some Platinum Monday when it ( hopefully ) flattens and readies itself for the next push to $420.

Wanna bet on whether Gold, Platinum, or Silver make better percentage gains over the next 6 months? I got $500 here that says Platinum will beat Gold. I got another $500 that says Silver will beat Gold....whaddaya say??? !!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:05 - ID#229277)
The 2pm crew has hit the DOW and they're pumping it back up, up, up!
You can thank Gollum, who, although he broke off the lever in the process, did reset the controls just right. Took a while for the adjustment to take effect, due to a certain monetary histeresis.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:07 - ID#431263)
You, sir, sound like a dementic, tired old fart with hemhorroids, blowing smoke about how great life is in Mandellaland! I'll send ya' some Preparation-H if'n you've still got mail service by the time it gets to ya'!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:07 - ID#227238)
John Disney: The SA's seem to be holding better, at this point, than the NA's but I would like a little rally to clear the last of all gold shares. I do believe your son is correct, in his projection, and may even be fit subject to a sound flogging for his unwarranted optimism.

There is absolutely nothing in the PM charts to remain ( or become ) sanguine about. ..... Ghastly business, this.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:08 - ID#242325)
EARL: Agree on the major trend. But we can still get a real nice bounce ( 30% or more ) and still remain in the same channel. I will looking to buy gold shares around 60 XAU. Very nice risk/reward even if the bear isn't over.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:12 - ID#237264)
In this system of competitive and forced devaluations no currency is or wants to be strong

The US currency has been mostly down since 1964 and it's backed by the worlds biggest internal and external debts......Presently it's considered the powerhouse, but when it fails, what else is there?

Our currency had some glorious moments ( like the present ) , but the trend has been down, down, down.

The Euro and the Yen are essentially floating on ourpaper and they have little or mininmal gold respectively.

All Western European nations when taken together have only one ounce per head and Japan has even less.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:17 - ID#227238)
LGB: Today PL is below a modest trend line that has been in place since its low in the early '80s. That low was $250. Gold's low over the past 20 years is 280. Silver at 3.50. ....... Place yer bets.

The past may not always be a dependable prologue but it's all we have.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:19 - ID#36156)
Pssssst! (POG is comming back up... Shhhhhhhhhh... don't make a sound.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:20 - ID#288399)
Looks like the PPT might have shot its wad too soon -- Dow starting to weaken again.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:23 - ID#342315)
SDRer re your 13:14 etc
In the fields of gold, SDR,s money and funny money- if you don't have it, it don't matter. I am cogitating and will get back. Many thanx, Charlie

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:24 - ID#343171)
Thai depression warning
Friday June 12 4:24 AM EDT

Thais warn of global depression

BANGKOK, Thailand, June 12 ( UPI ) - Thai officials are warning that further falls in the value of the Japanese yen could spark another round of Asian financial chaos and possibly trigger a global depression.

As the Japanese yen hit a seven-year low of 144 to the U.S. dollar today, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi ( ``SOO-pa-chaia-NIT-pak-dee'' ) was quoted in the local media as saying the next currency crisis in Asia could ``pull the rest of the world down with it. ''

The fall of the yen has had a strong impact on Thailand's already shaky economy, with the stock market and the exchange rate of the currency, the baht, at their lowestpoints in more than a decade.

Supachai warned that the rest of Asia could not afford to compete with Japan for export markets if the yen continued to fall.

He says the weak yen will slacken Japanese demand for goods from Thailand and other export-driven Asian economies.

Other analysts have warned that the continued slide of the Japanese currency will put increased pressure on China and Hong Kong to devalue their currencies, whichwould create even more cut-throat competition for export markets.

Thai Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda ( ``TA-rin nim-man-HAY- min'' ) , who just returned from the United States, said he could not foresee an early end to the Asian financial crisis.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:30 - ID#356379)
@RJ and GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Cancel the suicide watch
Thanks, Y'All.

I just wish I had some more dry powder to average down yet again ( although we read today that this isn't such a good idea... ) .

Back to the still..


(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:30 - ID#431263)
OUCH! Yield curve up to 10 years now BELOW Fed Funds at 5 5/8 and Discount Rate at 5.5! Bond now close to inverting Fed Funds!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:32 - ID#317193)
ASB. What has been worse since we agreed to watch the gold and silver markets together? Probably gold.

Go something...anything. Good luck on Pt. I'm not sure when I'll jump back in.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:32 - ID#93127)
ChasOne is allowing oneself to be convinced, IT IS ALL FUNNY MONEY!

( With one exception ) {:- ) )

There is the public ECU and the private ECU

There is the green ECU

There is the yuan and the renminbi

There is the stateside dollar and the offshore dollar

There is gold that is only paper

And paper that is only gold

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:39 - ID#269207)
A JP I am truly sorry to hear about your DR.
prognosis, One time ( true story ) the DR.'s in a comunity that shall remane nameless, went on strike because they felt they were being unjustly targeted to too many malpractice suits, the Death rate in that community went down by 70+%, it seems Dr.'s have a hard time getting anything right.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:41 - ID#30116)
Not that anyone needs to see this, but...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:43 - ID#288399)
Taking Stock b.s.
Ron Insane-a is smiling ear-to-ear, his "hair" is coming forward, and the market is coming back up. Did the PPT come in a second time?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:48 - ID#333127)
I have not been able to access gold digest today, wanted to see if Dines had a new mkt. letter. Anybody access it or know what he is saying?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:49 - ID#269207)
@Rube did you sell?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:52 - ID#333127)
to Dave
No not yet, you will know as gold will then soar, ask again.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:54 - ID#36156)
I Don't Care, I'm Buying More!!!


(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:55 - ID#30116)
What else do you expect him to say? BUY. Then again, there's that ugly chart that I just posted...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:58 - ID#373284)
An HONOR.............................

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:58 - ID#269207)
TO Rube, and here I thought you had sacrificed yourself just
stop the downward spiral.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 14:59 - ID#342376)
Comments from the Veneroso camp....
Very few people know of this Japanese buying, if we are correct, so in that sense it is a non-issue compared to the hedge funds that are selling in full force ( open interest up over 7,000 contracts alone on comex, much less OTC market selling which is 5 to 10 times bigger ) . Also this Asian buying is not done yet. They probably stepped back a bit.
This is a big event which, when known, will be very positive for the gold market. We heard again today of confirmation of this buying. The reason was quite simplistic. They want to build gold reserves because it is good for the currency and pointed to the Canadian and Australian currencies as examples of what not having enough gold or selling gold can do to a currency.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:06 - ID#342315)
Give me a call or email. Just heard from BCMD. Sounds good, waiting on confirmation. Antbody interested, phone 704 433 6473 or email cdevoto@abts,net This is not a promotion, just an update.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:08 - ID#286230)
Crystallex stock dives before mine verdict

Crystallex International Corp. has lost its high-profile legal fight to secure Placer Dome Inc.'s
70% stake in the rich Las Cristinas gold mine in Venezuela.
Venezuelan Supreme Court Judge Cecelia Sosa Gomez ended months of speculation when
she handed down the decision yesterday afternoon in Caracas.
But before trading in Crystallex ( KRY/TSE ) was halted yesterday, investors sensed what was
coming. They sent the stock tumbling $2.80 to $2.55 on volume of 1.4 million. Hopes of a
victory for Crystallex had lifted the stock to $11.60 in March.
On the American Exchange, the shares ( KRY/AMEX ) plunged by US$1fl to US$1*.
"This is no surprise,'' said John Ing, a mining analyst with Maison Placements Canada Inc. in
Toronto. "It's a decision that has long been anticipated.''
Documents disclosed by Crystallex show it essentially bought into a lawsuit that has delayed
development of one of Latin America's largest gold mines.
In March 1997, a Crystallex affiliate agreed to pay US$30 million to acquire Inversora Mael
CA, a Venezuelan company that was challenging Placer's rights to key areas of Las Cristinas
known as concessions four and six.
Last July, the Supreme Court refused to hear Mael's argument it had a valid claim to gold
reserves in those areas.
At the time, Crystallex president Marc Oppenheimer said the ruling had left his company
"exactly where it wanted to be.''
Crystallex appealed the court decision, forcing Placer to postpone development until the
dispute was resolved.
Yesterday, the court rejected all Mael's claims to the gold and copper reserves at Las
Cristinas, and said the decision is final and unappealable.
"This confirms what we have believed from the beginning,'' said Eugenio Hernandez-Breton,
the Venezuelan lawyer acting for Placer Dome.
Crystallex officials did not return phone calls yesterday.
But Ricardo Cottin, Crystallex's legal adviser in Venezuela told Bloomberg news service the
company would "respect the decision, even though we don't agree with it.''
"We are very relieved that this obstacle has been removed so we can go ahead with the
mine,'' said Placer spokesman Hugh Leggatt.
Las Cristinas is owned 70% by Placer Dome and 30% by a Venezuelan state entity, CVG.
Leggatt said it may take the joint venture three to four months to secure financing for the
US$600-million open pit mine.
Once the funding is in place, construction is expected to take another two years.
The decision is important for Placer because Las Cristinas contains about one-third of the
Vancouver company's gold reserves and plays a key part in its growth plans.
Containing about 11.8 million ounces of gold, the mine is expected to produce 450,000
ounces annually at a cost of about US$200 an ounce.
However, analysts said it's hard to forecast what impact the decision will have on Placer's
Despite speculation the judgment would be in Placer's favor, its shares ( PDG/TSE ) fell 40c to
$17.20 yesterday in a general selloff of gold stocks.
Analysts said the shares reacted to plunging bullion prices, which overshadowed the
Venezuela ruling. Gold fell US$6.20 to US$286.70 an ounce in New York.
"The economics of such a low grade deposit are suspect with gold trading at under US$300
an ounce,'' said Ing.
The court decision leaves Crystallex with its small Albino mine in Venezuela. In recent filings,
the company said it spent $15.4 million last year to maintain its interest in the lawsuit. That
money and any subsequent costs would be expensed to operations.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:11 - ID#333127)
to panda
Yes it is ugly.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:13 - ID#286249)
This is what the plan WAS...
Once the euro is 'born' in January 1999, the monetary system finally will not be dominated any more by the only green ticket ( dollar ) . But it will be shared between the dollar, the yen and the euro.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:15 - ID#333127)
Thanks for that post, some encouragement for a change.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:16 - ID#246224)
Can anyone seriously doubt that things are out of wack???
Let's step back a bit. What is *not* out of wack here?

The world's greatest debtor is considered the archtype of prosperity while the world's greatest creditor is entering a depression.

At a time when entire economies and nations are being reduced to rubble, people prefer to own the paper promises of the greatest debtor nation on earth rather than gold or silver.

Officials can baldy comment that "there is no economic problem because our fundimentals are sound" when their countries markets and currencies are crashing to the ground around them.

Politicians can, without shame, say that "trade deficits show the strength of our economy and the desirability of our currency".

Is the world living in a dream state or caught in an all embracing social halucination? Are we mad???

When reasonable men speak soberly they are banished for their 'folly'. When fools, intoxicated with arrogance and conceit, speak swelling words of richs and greatness they are adulated!

When I as a home owner in a real estate bubble can borrow US$50,000+ at prime minus 1% rate ( less than the Federal Reserve system charges a certified bank ) without a real estate assessment there is something drasticly wrong.

If the current scene inspires some with confidence and a sense of well being then I can only pity their final ruin and destitution. As for me: gold, silver, cash.

US$140 billion in cash.
US$5500 billion in liquid accounts.
100 days to prepare for the panics of '99.

Don't wait until you can't get out or get real.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:18 - ID#269207)
to Rube, if this is True Rube then don't be such and a**hole, just sell will you, so the rest of
us can at least make some money. Your being realy selfish you know.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:19 - ID#286249)
Allen, BRABO!!!
Thank you! {:- ) )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:22 - ID#431263)
Equities now 30-40% more overvalued than the economy!--CNBC

Rising Sun
(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:27 - ID#413372)
Rube & Dines

I have access to golden-eagle's editorials, and James Dines does not have a new wright up. Hopefully this weekend he'll have something to say.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:27 - ID#269207)
To Allen, Well what you suggest this BIGGEST creditor tell
this BIGGEST debtor, who happens to also be a big MEAN SOB and has occassionally been known to NUKE your asse?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:29 - ID#431263)

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:30 - ID#333127)
to Rising Sun
Thank You

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:35 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...I have never denied I made a wrong call...
...on gold this decade. Dead wrong, in fact. If you check any of my various past posts, I never claimed to have made a correct call on gold's long term direction in the Ninetie's. Several line hits...absolutely no big home runs!

Fortunately, however, I have made some tremendous home runs in Put purchases on general equities...and I mean tremendous!

As I mentioned in many earlier posts, I never recognized the strongly anti-gold bias of the new Clinton regime. I believe this anti-gold bias stems from a personal vendetta Clinton has held against former Prez Bush who fought a fairly vicious campaign against him ( as you know Bush serves as a director of Barrick Gold and has benefited from close ties to the industry ) . Moreover, the Clinton regime adopted a steadfast policy to target nervous monies towards Bonds, not PM's. Again, this is owing to Treasury Sec Rubin's incestuous relationship with Wall Street where his buddies maximize their commissions selling bonds and equities...not PM's!
I have no doubt Rubin aspires to a nice sinecure on Wall Street after he leaves office and so long as he keeps the Bull running, I am sure his buddies will take care of him. Finally, I never recognized the potent methodologies employed by the New Paradigm in denying all negatives or transforming all negatives into positives. These deft tactics got the American economy out of its early decade malaise. Unfortunately, the same tactics will no longer work because, originally, when they were utilized, downtrodden Americans were looking desperately to spin pessimism into optimism ( as negative conditions surrounded them everywhere ) . They began with small risks and the markets rewarded them; so, slowly they increased their risks. Today, unusually optimistic conditions surround Americans and they are, in general, Pollyannas who are psychologically unequipped to handle any left field pessimistic economic events. Moreover, they have ploughed unusually hefty portions of their savings into the markets. Thus, as genuine real negatives show up right here in America very soon, it will be impossible to deny them and there will be an avalanche of sellers with few if any buyers.

I have always learned the greatest lessons from failures. The Nineties have provided me a tremendous education...much more than that provided the average Mutual Fund investor who has handed over his savings to some imperious manager with the command, "Duhh, go ahead and make me lots of money, OK?"

The ultimate downfall of today's mutual fund investor will be the financial success experienced this past decade. Most of these guys have learned little if anything about markets and the underlying psychology that moves them. Why? Because the market's general verticality has left most of them feeling smug and omniscient WITHOUT having been compelled to actually examine the gear mechanisms that make them work. The greatest virtue of KITCOITES is that, in general, they have developed tremendous education and analytical skills regarding markets. Most of them handle investments on an individual basis and have avoided the herd mentality. Thus, they have been compelled to actually learn something about the way markets actually work.

Nothing amuses me more than running into a mutual fund investor at some event who speaks knowledgeably about the directions of today's markets. When I ask him how he arrives at his analysis, inevitably, he hems and haws and defers to the fact he correctly chose the appropriate mutual fund manager to steer the ship. In other words, he personally knows only that which the fund manager chooses to impart, little if anything more.
His very success has eliminated any imperative to educate himself.

The Clinton regime is already on its way out. Already, there are notable figures in government jockeying for power who wish to "survive" the Clinton regime's inevitable downfall. These figures do not share the Clinton-Greenspan-Rubin perspective on life. I look for the cohesion behind Clintonomics to fall apart shortly as the government consensus dissipates. Analogously, I believe the Wall Street Mutual Funds de facto cartel will slowly break apart as various leading member recognize the "writing is on the wall." Index fund mangers will simply refuse to index...many will simply wish to adopt short strategies. More and more of them will commit the cardinal sin of purchasing gold and silver.

Again, the last time I looked, gold remains a global financial reserve...not plat, palladium or rhodium.

As a financial reserve, Gold loves to rise in the midst of turmoil and confusion, yes.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:36 - ID#341261)
As the day quietly fades away, we view the PPT....
...patting each other on the back in congratulations of another job well done. What ever happened to our free market system?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:37 - ID#345176)

In that Lihir mine, if it is not profitable to mine the gold,
to they have the rights to cut the forest wood and sell the lumber?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:38 - ID#262242)
Having Fun
Where's Tolerant1 today???? Probably over at the neighbors.

Ohmy Ohmy

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:39 - ID#57232)
Solar Minima? I know of Maunder Minima, and Wolffe minima
Cyclist: What I know about sunspot cycles is that the solar constant rises during increasing sunspot activity, warming the earth slightly. So solar activity ( solar constant ) will increase for at least 6-12 months. We could have some solar flares about that time, but I can't tell you if they will be significant. It is possible, because we have not had really bad solar flares in quite a few years. Would be just our luck to have really big ones just before y2k. Could zap a few satellites, or even the internet. The only solar minima I am familiar with in the Sunspot/solar activity/solar irradiance literature is the 250 or so year cycle -- Maunder minima, Wolffe minima, etc -- the very cold times when there are no sunspots at all.

If you are referring to the La Nina cooling effect after our unusually hot El Nino, then I would agree with you. However, I am not sure our El Nino is over yet. Could be. Those cycles are related to the sunspot cycles, but I think the correlation is weak. Haven't reviewed that in detail.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:40 - ID#431263)
Herr Myr-
Take two viagra and call me in the morning when you've spent yourself on dame ignorance!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:40 - ID#194311)
hmmm...i smell a rat ...Belgium gold loans?
Generale de Banque top guns resign
BRUSSELS, June 12 ( AFP ) - The top executives of leading Belgian
banking group Generale de Banque have resigned, the group announced
Friday afternoon.
They are executive president Ferdinand Chaffart and the chairman
of the Board of Directors, Paul-Emmanuel Janssen.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:42 - ID#212323)
I appreciate that you chimed in on the discussion Silverbaron and I were having yesterday...institutional use of gold as money. And whereas the BIS is rather selective in regard to their clientele ( although we both know that they don't LIMIT themselves to serving ONLY central banks ) , the LMBA on the otherhand offers the opportunity for gold in account to be transferred as money among the many non-BIS entities. Their daily volume is so high because this same gold simply continues to change hands...similar to the velocity of a dollar. Weren't you the one who posted a small bit of text regarding LMBA's position toward gold trades among member clients, and MORE IMPORTANTLY, their position toward gold trades to entities that are outside of the system--which risks the actual loss of the gold through demand for delivery 'outside the box'.

I also liked the post of your recent discovery of Latvia's answer to inflation. I have spent more than my fair share of time foraging around the Bank of Latvia. Nice place, that.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:44 - ID#286230)
I get a kick out of reading your posts but this one is a master piece. Gold is down because Clinton doesn't like Bush and the poor fool mutual fund investor is a source of humour because he has been making money hand over fist for 5+ years--and he doesn't know what he is doing. Great stuff-- and remember education should be a lifetime thing.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:46 - ID#269207)
to farfel, yes don't forget the spin, because others know how well
the powers that be, spin the usa public to support whatever policy is expedient to achieve their imperatives. They have a long history to point to, to show them, that the power structure writes our history not the historical events themselves.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:46 - ID#431263)
Jerry Favors cautious. Looks for one more new surge in late July/August, a failure and the beginning of DA' BEAR! BUT, we may have already seen it, May 1! Long Sequence takes us down into 2002!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:49 - ID#347235)
Herr Kasekopf
It is not like you to be so nasty, TWO viagra would probably kill a guy, one works very well however!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:52 - ID#340302)
@SELBY...just remember...
...five years of gains by mutual fund investors can evaporate within one week. Remember a year called 1929?

The last time I looked, the average mutual investor was leveraged to the max with the century's highest proportion of personal savings invested in equities.

So, let's see just how brilliant American mutual fund investors really are.

Note this post for the record.



P.S. If you do not believe that political leaders ( such as Clinton ) carry out personal vendettas, then I respectfully suggest that you too may be suffering a little bit too much of the "Pollyanna Syndrome."
How'd your mutual fund do today anyway?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:56 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...AMAZING timing
Farfel, you said....... "Fortunately, however, I have made some tremendous home runs in Put purchases on general equities...and I mean tremendous!"

Farfel, you must be Puetz incarnate! Only you and he can make vast fortunes on PUTS in a market that has risen exponentially, and in almost linear fashion for years! GENIOUS timing Farfel...yep, you & Puetzke!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:56 - ID#324266)
Gold Digest was not available from here as of about an hour ago.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 15:59 - ID#286230)
Temper temper
Now farfel-- gold profits have been evaporating for 20 years so its not just the '90s where you were wrong. Also--for your education--George Bush is not and never has been a member of the board of Directors of Barrick. See-- education can be a lifetime thing.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:02 - ID#269409)
@ Selby
May I second your post, as it is so much more concise than I was going to be! And I agree, it's great to have Farfel back as site "Humorist"...we need comedic relief here from time to time!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:06 - ID#343171)
Sweet irony if Klintons troubles crater the dollar and boost gold?
It could happen, and clearly his troubles are getting ready to boilover,
especially Lewinsky fixin' to testify and new revelations on Chinese
penetration of US foreign policy. ( 'Lewinsky' and 'penetration' in the
same sentence may become more commonplace soon ) .

Japan could buy about 870 million ounces with their reserves right now.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:08 - ID#222387)
Appears that PPT used the Standard and Poor 100 Index and the Amex Major Market Index to manipulate the Market.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:10 - ID#345176)
A post I read this morning - 12:14 - says:

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: :Any bets out there as to how low we go today
by the close? I'll stick out my neck and say below 8650"

Wow, what a call!

DOW UP 24 at 8834.

Great call GOLDEN AIRHEAD. Please continue to forecast, we depend
on you!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:11 - ID#290172)
Aragorn III--Didn't mean to intrude, it was the moment in time when
that particular question/information had moved from moderate to high probability in my "who's on first, what's on second" index. Have you
had time to 'work' the global corporation as client of BIS? This is a
more difficult can to open, but dents have been made, some syrup is
dribbling out. Would very much appreciate your input! {:- )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:21 - ID#290172)
kiwire:"hmmm...i smell a rat ...Belgium gold loans?"
GREAT catch! ( Is it possible to have a 'nose' for rats? ) {:- ) ) If it is,
you are going to be VERY busy in the days ahead!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:24 - ID#269409)
@ Rumblins....
Hmmm, NOW might be a 50/50 proposition for makin money on Puts Farfie my friend...but I'm BAFFLED as to how you did it when the market was heading straight up the past decade or so.

Friday June 12, 3:24 pm Eastern Time

FOCUS-World markets quake as Japan recession hits

( Updates with closing prices )

By Ron Askew

LONDON, June 12, ( Reuters ) - Share prices around the world crumbled on Friday as Japan's sick economy formally sank into
recession, pushing the yen to an eight-year low and threatening the rest of Asia with a second currency crisis.

The rot started in the currency markets when the yen slid to its lowest level since late 1990 overnight after dire first-quarter gross
domestic product data showed that Japan's economy contracted at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The world's second largest economy after the United States also shrank in the fourth quarter of 1997. Two consecutive quarters of
contraction is the standard definition of a recession.

It is the first time since the 1974-75 fiscal year that Japan's economy has been in recession. But in that year Japan's GDP -- the
value of all goods and services produced -- contracted by just 0.7 percent.

Mark 1.8051/56 Yen 144.32/42 Sterling 1.6303/10
Gold $285.70/6.20 -4.35 ( pvs PM fix ) Brent $12.95 +0.08
FTSE 100 5769.8 -82.7 CAC 4050.76 -90.85 X-DAX 5631.34

``The ( Japanese ) GDP data was worse than expected and the Japanese economy is looking in quite big trouble,'' said James McKay,
European economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London.

The dollar climbed to 144.72 yen on the news, its highest point since August 1990, before pre-weekend profit-taking pared gains
in European trading.

Fears that central banks might intervene to support the yen also curbed the dollar bulls' enthusiasm, analysts said.

``There was talk that some of the Asian central banks will act to stem the decline of the yen, but this is unlikely to turn the trend,''
said James McKay, chief European economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The Japanese currency has fallen by nearly five yen against the dollar this week, accelerating downhill after U.S. Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin said on Thursday intervention was a mere short-term instrument and that yen weakness reflected
economic conditions in Japan.

``Rubin is letting Japan hang out to dry until they come up with something substantial to turn the economy around,'' said Tony
Norfield, chief economist at ABN-Amro in London.

Dealers said Rubin's comments killed off any hope that the U.S., or the G7, would intervene to boost the yen any time soon,
undermining key support for the yen.

Economists said it was now only a matter of time before the dollar broke through 145 yen to pave the way for a decline to around
160 yen by year-end if Japan's economy remains in bad shape.

The dollar's gains against the yen served to support the dollar against the mark, which ticked up to a seven-week high of 1.8106
marks overnight.

However, analysts say the U.S. will not be able to sit on its hands for much longer as Asian instability begins to take a bigger bite
out of the U.S. and global economy.

Uncertainty stemming from Japan's problems rattled European bourses, too. German shares shed 2.9 percent, while French shares
lost 2.2 percent and London shares were 1.4 percent.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:27 - ID#431263)
A admire a man who can speak from experience! : )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:27 - ID#66136)
SELBY Pls give farfel some credit as King George is Honorary Senior Adv at Barrick

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:27 - ID#252107)
Too much doom-gloom on US may be wrong! Anyone every travel 2 Europe?
Seems like every one talks about US being biggest debt and dollar is fiat as if the rest of the world is better. Europe shuts down for 6 weeks nobody wants to work. We may have largest debt, but we also have biggest economy. On proportion basis - I think Europe & Japan are in far worse shape than we are. Just maybe the dollar may be paper & electronics, but it is still the best of the lot. Seems like a lot of guys here think Europe is some kind of utopia. May be you should take a vacation this summer and look around. EMU is all about socialism. Germany & France want to retire at 50-55. Nobody wants to work. That's why Japan kick our buts and then things changed. We fought back.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:29 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...Lotto fever
Farf, do you know that in CA Lotto, there are 18 million, nine hundren ninety nine thousand, nine hundred and ninety nine losing number combinations every draw? Yet there remains always ONE six number combination that will win....My suggestion to you is, with your amazing timing and predicitve powers and all, is that you pick that 6 number combo., and make yer fortune! It'll happen a lot quicker than those "put" profits on general Equities you've been making during the biggest, strongest, most incredible bull market run in history......

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:30 - ID#57232)
Latest on Starr's pending report to Congress: Impeachment?
Republican leaders want something with 'teeth'.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:32 - ID#324266)
Allen @ 15:16
Things ARE out of whack and I wish that it was as simple as madness. The only explanation that I can offer is that the biggest debtor nation is also the most powerful nation, by a lot, and is able to perpetrate whacked out distortions on a global scale. Common sense has flown away for a while in many areas of our lives, excepting the Kitco discussions.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:33 - ID#431263)
Hope you got in today before the close, Myr, so's you won't miss the next leg up the @$$!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:35 - ID#347457)
@Farfel - I don't think that even you believe what you preach
Farfel, you've got to be kidding. Right?! Everybody is ignorant but us Goldbugs. We are the smartest but we are loosing money right and left. Yeah, them MF investors can loose their gains in one year. On the other hand, us smart cookies, we know how to loose it in one week DESPITE the fact that we know all intricate details about what makes the market work ;- )
Yeah, the time will come when we will shine, however, I just hope that we still have some money left to stay in the game ;- )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:36 - ID#229277)
PPT? Nope.
Just your basic program trading.

Fund manager friend is bummed because the company that represents her favorite stock to shove into her favorite funds just announced their first below expectations quarter in 18 consecutive quarters. That's 4 1/2 years of uninterrupted earnings growth. But... that doesn't mean she's selling it out. Nope. She just doesn't believe it yet. She's going to wait and see what the other sheep do first. The program trades are still in place. For now.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:36 - ID#340302)
@SELBY, LGB (Ooops...Market Longs Getting Testy Today, Huh?)....
Selby, either Bush was/is a paid consultant or on the Board of Barrick, it's one or the other, I am categorically certain of that. I have not checked the Munkster's annual report in some time. So you are arguing nuances.

As far as being wrong about gold for the last 20 years, how old do you think I am? I am 41 years old and only began actively investing in gold in '93 during a mini-bull phase. So, I have been wrong about the trend for a period of five years.

LGB, I really get a kick out of you. You love to appear on this forum and make sadistic comments about gold ( on gold down-days ) in order to make yourself feel better and superior to Kitcoites in general. Naturally, we are expected to remain deferential and forget to mention your recent neverending spate of disatrous calls pertaining to silver, plat, and palladium. Moreover, since you are a notable market long ( and the markets have been consistently tanking this past week ) , you probably are not in the genius category of market calls right now, are you? My impression is you are the Puetz of silver and plat...except that would be an unfortunate denigration of Puetz.

At least, I admit wrong never seem capable of doing so.

Of course, I still love you. You are my favorite cog in the industrial-military machine of this great nation ( and I mean that from the heart, sweetie ) .



(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:37 - ID#233199)
@ CoolJing: Japan could buy about 870 million ounces with their reserves right now.

How much is that in tonnes or tons or whatever?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:37 - ID#242325)
JP: As today's rebound shows trying to predict the exact timing of a big drop is a very dangerous game. I still do see how the US stock market will go down big time as long as bonds and the dollar are surging and gold is in the dumps. Some companies yes, but the stock market as a whole, no.

A 10% correction is as bad as it gets until the greenback is no longer king of the hill. But once the greenback is taken down a few pegs and foreign capital starts to leave the US, a huge smash is inevitable.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:39 - ID#269409)
@ EB
Would you suggest a wobbler or a deep diving plug in this situation?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:41 - ID#197328)
Fairies and the PPT

I don't believe in fairies ( except on some of my

flights ) and I don't believe in the PPT. However,

today's market action is changing my beliefs in

the existence of the PPT.

On last night's world news ( ABC? ) there was a

segment on Air Rage, the sibling of Road Rage and

how today's air travelers are more crowded, more

harried and more short tempered than ever before.

Just last month I was flying into the USA's busiest

airport when the #1 Flight Attendant entered the

cockpit and advised that we had a problem. Seems a

rather belligerent passenger in coach had struck

the passenger in front of him over the head simply

because he reclined his seat back. He then threat-

ened to kill him if he reclined his seat again. I

promptly had the FA upgrade the innocent passenger

all the way to the front of the aircraft and radioed

ahead to have the police awaiting our aircraft upon

our arrival. There's definitely an evil wind afoot

these days.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:47 - ID#270236)
About 27,000 tons.
See subject

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:50 - ID#269409)
@ Farfegnuggin...
Testy, testy, why of COURSE I've admitted error here, and on numerous ocassions.

However, on balance, I feel pretty good about being invested where I have, when I have. After all, I still have 1200% + gains from equities over the past decade plus, ALL of which is now sitting in cash and / or physical metal. The SILVER it's sittin in incidentally, is comfortably on the profit side to this day, as I bought the vast majority it late last summer ( and said so here at the time ) at the low $4.** range. Have you looked back a year lately to compare Gold & silver prices then & now?

Platinum I sold out weeks ago, at $410 level , and announced that here as well, been lookin for a chance to get back in ever since and it seems I found it.

As to being "Long" Equities, you have again mis stated my position. I'm completely OUT of equities ( with the exception of some locked in company stock ) and have said so many times here. I bailed at around 8200, last August.

What I AM long on, is the proven FACT that in OUR lifetimes, equities will outperform Gold, yesterday, today, and forever, in the LONG, long run. Short term, equities are risky and have risen too far too fast without proper justification. That's why I'm out. Long term, I'd tell my kids to buy mutuals before they put their hopes in metals. Why? Because I have more faith in our long term economic prospects, than the rest of the wordls. Because tax law is now set up to virtually guarantee Boomers will be investing in mutuals for decades. Because foreign investment will continue to flow to the strongest, most prosperous, most productive, most stable economy in the world.

( Oh beautiful...for spacious skys...for Golden waves of....Oops, I mean AMBER waves of grain....... )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:50 - ID#347457)
@jefsilver7__A - Europe Utopia?
I also want to retire at 50-55!!!!!
Oh well, I was born in Europe - it must be in my genes ;- )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:52 - ID#231337)
Tonnes of Gold affordable to Japan
Probably 26,000 - 27,000 tonnes .... less commissions!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:53 - ID#269207)
to jt8d if you don't believe in faries how about Chinese? would this be a good time for
them to de-value their currency? Wanna bet Clinton goes the Beijing on his Knees, he's been getting lessons from Monica ya know.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:56 - ID#286230)
So, I have been wrong about the trend for a period of five years.
Farfel: In this case perhaps it is wise to fight your trend. You are correct about the nuance--except being on the board or not on the board of Barrick gold is not a nuance. When you have nothing to say that is correct and you can't get the details or your confession of incompetence correct --why not do the decent thing and stop posting until you have something to say that won't be misleading to the innocent or insulting to yourself.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 16:57 - ID#340302)
@LGB...I will accept the veracity of your comments at face value...
...but you must promise me one thing. When the equities markets tank dramatically and we move into a lengthy pronounced bear ( with gold skyrocketing ) , then I insist you appear on this forum and post daily abundant compliments to the regulars here...instead of your usual round of smirky disparagements.

My guess is that, on that dark day, we will cease to hear from you again.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:01 - ID#252150)
JY reversal@Maybe as early as next week
I think Rubin & his Japanese cohorts are setting a bear trap for the JY bears. There is no way that they will let it weaken much further & take China & the rest of the world with it. Watch for some positive news, something that will reverse the decline & then bam!!Rubin will intervene in a big way. They never like to intervene until there is some momentum in the right direction. I'll be looking to buy the JY when it gets back to 143.

Needless to say, this will get the POG heading back in the right direction.
I bought a fair amount of ABX this afternoon.

I may very well be completely wrong & the JY may continue on it's way to 160, in which case we're all fu*ked.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:07 - ID#253153)
Farfel, LGB---come on guys, there is no need for feuding on this forum
We have got to help each other, share info and opinions rather than fighting in public. If we can be 70% correct most of the times , We will do very well.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:09 - ID#269207)
farfel, if you think this true, then I would be holding
metal in my hand not paper. cause last time they closed the doors until the army showed up to remove all assets from each and every bank. Goceries were purchased by barter as well as everything else, the stores were happy to barter, since there was no money.

Of course, If we knew what treaties and deals Clinton made to the UN for the supposed Drug War, we'd know if we are going to get intrusive tapping by the UN and it won't make any difference who holds what, because they'll eventually figure out who has what and come and get it
after they get through with the Banks.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:09 - ID#252107)
James (Rubin Intervention? Come on now Talk is cheap Intervention costs $$
Japan blew $20 bill back at 130. G7 is still trying to come up with cash for Russia. This 1985 all over again. Intervention failed & then they formed plaza accord and birth of G7 for coordinated intervention. Maybe I'm getting old, but I remeber those days and they're back!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:09 - ID#317193)
James...a man who watches the JY...
We watch this JY market together. Yes? Good trading to you.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:10 - ID#340302)
@SELBY...why should I stop posting....
...when you refuse to do the same? Why should I have to suffer quietly your frequent posts?

Am I to assume that the posts you make are all literal indisputable facts? Am I to assume there is no underlying bias in your generally negative comments pertaining to gold?

You spin your thoughts on gold...and I'll spin mine. Ultimately, the best spin will win, right?

Now if you can categorically convince me of the absence of personal bias ( which alters the presentation of your facts ) , then I shall consider absenting myself from this forum.

Re: Bush -- I acknowledge there is a legal distinction between director and honorary advisor...however, I do NOT acknowldege any distinction between the "in-bed-with-gold" equivalence of both positions. Now are you happy?



(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:10 - ID#57232)
Air Rage
JT8D: Interesting post. I have a possibly related comment. I returned from a trip to Detroit about a month ago and passed through St. Louis Airport on the return home. We took TWA ( crew was very nice ) , but the plane was packed with little leg room. It was a 727, I think. We noticed that the ground crew was extremely slow in Detroit, delaying our departure. And -- when we landed early at St. Louis, the pilot stopped very quickly, took a sharp right turn on the crossway, and stopped. Within about 15 seconds, another plane landed on the runway we just vacated. Then about 15 seconds later, another plane took off on another runway between us and the terminal. I remember looking out, and seeing several planes in the air for each runway -- both on landing and takeoff patterns. At least three runways all in use. I was getting somewhat nervous about the traffic density, though I doubt many others realized how dense the air traffic was. We then taxied to a safer area, and the pilot told us we would have to wait for the ground crew to clear the site of another plane. Took about 20 minutes -- so much for our speedy entry into St. Louis.

Here is the kicker - when we went to the location of the next plane in the terminal I noticed that there was virtually one passenger every square foot. I think it was mostly TWA - with international flights. Then I realized why the runway was so busy. I have never seen St. Louis like this -- it seems dangerous to me given what I know about the airtraffic controllers and their 2-d radar.

Perhaps part of the reason of the air rage is the extreme congestion at major airports.

Lastly, I take off my hat to the pilots ( and the rest of the crew ) as well as the air traffic controllers who work under these wild conditions at St. Louis airport. I hope the other major hubs are not like this.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:15 - ID#33024)
gold and dow-Jones analysis or

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:16 - ID#33024)
gold and dow-Jones analysis or

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:17 - ID#343171)
Something like 27,300 tons.

It is a pipe dream to think that the MIF/BOJ officials could

be decisive enough to implement any effective fix to their

problems, they have been consistent in dribbling out weak

efforts, remember the "Big Bang"? They are like deer in the headlights,

completely afraid to rationalize their books and take necessary steps

to halt the erosion thats been going on since 1989s crash.

It doesn't help to have the political establishment paralyzed by

ongoing scandals either, nothing affirmative gets done, currency weakens,

a few tidbit billions in US$ reserves are squandered defending a

defenceless currency, on it goes until there is no more jing or


(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:18 - ID#269409)
@ FArfel
Good ole Mr. One note. When the equity markets tank and become Bear, as they inevtiably will, and when Gold someday rises from it's ashes, as it inevitably will ( both events I've preached here myself ) ....then I will indeed be here to congratulate those who benifit from the turn in cycle AND ALSO to urge them to catch the next "wave" in equities, when said short cycle reverses itself again, and conditions are right for next bull.

Till then Farfel, stop presuming you speak for everyone here, since a LOT of folks here are a lot more astute than you are. I "disparage" very few here, as I consider most Kitcoites to be FAR AND AWAY more intelligent and market savvy than the "average" mutual fund investor. That's why I lurk here, to learn. I see two sides of every ( Gold ) coin at all times...sometimes 3 of 4 sides!

YOU on the other hand, mt dear cheerleading, monolithic friend, have only one, narrow, and sadly misleading message to give. Like a clock that's stopped, you TOO will be right twice a day Farf......sometime......

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:24 - ID#197328)

Farfel: Welcome back. My travels keep me from my
computer too much ( though I sometimes log on at
various Kinko's around the U.S. to catch up on
Kitco ) so I don't know when you returned.Anyway,
you were missed during your absence.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.91. The 50 day moving average is 29.98. A year ago the ratio was 22.53

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:30 - ID#57232)
Air Rage
JT8D: Interesting post. I have a possibly related comment. I returned from a trip to Detroit about a month ago and passed through St. Louis Airport on the return home. We took TWA ( crew was very nice ) , but the plane was packed with little leg room. It was a 727, I think. We noticed that the ground crew was extremely slow in Detroit, delaying our departure. And -- when we landed early at St. Louis, the pilot stopped very quickly, took a sharp right turn on the crossway, and stopped. Within about 15 seconds, another plane landed on the runway we just vacated. Then about 15 seconds later, another plane took off on another runway between us and the terminal. I remember looking out, and seeing several planes in the air for each runway -- both on landing and takeoff patterns. At least three runways all in use. I was getting somewhat nervous about the traffic density, though I doubt many others realized how dense the air traffic was. We then taxied to a safer area, and the pilot told us we would have to wait for the ground crew to clear the site of another plane. Took about 20 minutes -- so much for our speedy entry into St. Louis.

Here is the kicker - when we went to the location of the next plane in the terminal I noticed that there was virtually one passenger every square foot. I think it was mostly TWA - with international flights. Then I realized why the runway was so busy. I have never seen St. Louis like this -- it seems dangerous to me given what I know about the airtraffic controllers and their 2-d radar.

Perhaps part of the reason of the air rage is the extreme congestion at major airports.

Lastly, I take off my hat to the pilots ( and the rest of the crew ) as well as the air traffic controllers who work under these wild conditions at St. Louis airport. We should at the very least upgrade to 3-d radar, I think. Not just an upgrade to y2k compliant.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:30 - ID#317193)
CEAUX-DUTHEIL Stephane.....the english translation in a few months.... has been a few months. Some of us sodbusters do not know french. Sorry.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:34 - ID#25171)
We spoke some time ago about the fact that the FED was buying S&P futures in october last year to support the market. I don't remember if it was a proven fact acknowledged by the FED or a supposition?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:34 - ID#269409)
@ JP...Farfel
JP, don't worry, Farfel and I aren't really fighting, just kinda friendly jabbin each other a bit. For a real "fight" you have to scroll back a few weeks!

Farfel, on the other hand, you said;

"You spin your thoughts on gold...and I'll spin mine. Ultimately, the best spin will win, right?"

WRONG Farfel! The best "spin" will not win. Truth in markets, is the same as truth in all things. It will be what it will be, APART from our "spin".

It's not "What does LGB or Farfel think?" that will determine market direction. It's "What will happen if LGB and Farfel don't even exist" that will matter.

Much as you so desperately try, you will never "wish", cajole, browbeat, or sweet talk Gold into going your way Farfie my friend....... It will move based on fundamentals, world economic conditions, and some measure, based on WIDE spread market sentiments and pssychology. This may sound like a contradiction, but really isn't. Even the study of investor psychology has some science to it, and isn't subject to someone's wishful "spin" in altering the future direction.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:35 - ID#286230)
@SELBY...why should I stop posting....
farfel: for your own self respect--should be enough. I haven't posted many opinions for over a year--my views haven't changed. All I post arenews items that might be of interest so you don't know what I'm posting and--as you said --what you have been talking about. Anyway you have done enough damage to yourself for one afternoon and I don't want to be the impetus for a complete wipe out so have a good weekend.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:37 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .239. The 50 day moving average is .272. A year ago the ratio was .304. My database contains 9 occasions when the XAU closed in the 68.XX range ( yesterday was one ) . The ranking, according to the gold price, is #7. The #1 rank reading was on 4/29/86 with a gold price of $345.00, an XAU of 68.71 which produced an XAU/AU ratio of .199

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:38 - ID#252150)
JefSilver@You know the old cliche--trees don't grow to the sky .
If they are well coordinated they can make them cover buy stops all the way down to 135. At least that would put some real fear in the JY bears & give them some breathing room .

As I said in my last post I may be wrong & we are all fuc*ed.

It may well be just wishfull thinking on my part because I'd love to take it back to 135, then reverse & ride it all the way back up.

Off to the golf course.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:43 - ID#212323)
SDRer already knows this, so...important *trivia* for everyone else
This should open some eyes for anyone who has lingering doubts in regard to the potential for self-serving activity on the part of the U.S.'s Federal Reserve System--a PRIVATE banking corporation. This information comes direct from the Bank for International Settlements, also a private corporation.

The authorised share capital of the BIS ( Bank ) is 1,500 million gold francs, divided into 600,000 shares of equal nominal value ( 2,500 gold francs per share ) . At the close of the financial year 517,125 shares were in issue and, in accordance with Article 7 of the Statutes of the BIS, they are paid up to the extent of 25% of their nominal value ( 625 gold francs per share ) . The amount of the paid-up capital appearing in the Balance Sheet of the BIS at 31st March 1997 thus stands at 323.2 million gold francs. ( The gold franc of the BIS has a gold weight of just over 0.29 of a gramme of fine gold )

*******OK, now read this next part VERY carefully*********

When the Bank's initial capital was issued, the subscribing institutions
were given the option of taking up the whole of their respective
national issues of shares or of arranging for those shares to be
subscribed by the public. As a result, part of the Belgian and French
issues and the whole of the American issue are not held by the
institutions to which they were originally allocated. In all, some 86%
of the Bank's issued share capital is registered in the names of central
banks, the remaining 14% being held by private shareholders. While all
shares carry equal rights with respect to the annual dividend, private
shareholders have no right to attend or vote at General Meetings of the
BIS, since all rights of voting and representation are reserved for the
central bank of the country in which the relevant national issue of
shares was initially subscribed.

****Do you realize that the 14% of BIS shares that are held by private shareholders represents the stated fractional Belgian and French issues and the WHOLE of the American issues?!!!! I shall repeat this.-- The entirety of the BIS shares issued on behalf of America's central bank ( the Federal Reserve System ) are held by private shareholders, NOT held in the name of the central bank, unlike 86% of the BIS shares which ARE registered in the names of the world's various central banks.

OK, so fine, they've got no vote at a private shareholder ( the central bank retains the right to vote ) , but YES answers both of the following:

got influence?
got dividends?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:45 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.93. The 50 day moving average is 52.20. A year ago the ratio was 72.19

Aragorn III
(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:46 - ID#212323)
Typo in my last full sentence
should read..."AS a private shareholder", not "AT a private..."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:53 - ID#26793)
The 50 day moving average for spot gold is $301.28. The 233 day M/A is $307.31

Cage Rattler
(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:53 - ID#33182)
@TYoung: French -> English
Use the following URL to translate the French:

(Fri Jun 12 1998 17:53 - ID#307271)
The Battle Lines
Farfel: You make this site worth visiting. Right or wrong ( and most of us are wrong much of the time ) , your posts are always uplifting and worthy of a read. You remind me of a great General--scurrying along behind his men in the trenches. Many are slain and wounded, but with resistence we can defeat the next wave. I especially appreciate your pat-on-the-head of your personal "Oil Can Harry"--'ol LGB. Your call on Rubin is right on. The Japanese will find a way and a day to make Rubin pay--what alliteration for an old guy.

Crazytimes: I love the Au Anonymous schtick. It's like I told an old buddy years ago when I lived on a barstool. He asked me if I thought we were alcoholics. My response was: "All of us are alcoholics--some of us are still in self deception." Likewise at Kitco, we are all Auholics.

Poets: Keep up the great poetry. Sharefin's Spirit Poem really moved me. To be sure, some remind me of my 2nd year at The Swamp ( UF ) . But man! T.S. Elliot, e.e. cummings, Dylan Thomas...they're all here for sure.

Men, keep up the humility. A couple of humility pills a day ( b.i.d. ) is an excellent Rx for the times we're in. Arrogance abounds, in the Whitehouse for sure. You see pride always precedes a fall. Love. zeke

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:04 - ID#253153)
Silver price
According to Carol Mulls Metal Cycles , fax 317-353-6246, " Silver prices should rise rapidly after June 15 and into early July ". Carol in the past had
very good track record.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:04 - ID#26793)
Thai officials warn of Global Depression

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:07 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices late Friday morning Kitco time.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:07 - ID#290172)
Why there is no/low inflation--

We have tiered currencies,of every stripe and hue
With matching interest rates, ( which are brought-in on cue )

Each participant shall initially select one of the two base rate systems for its currency. Other participants shall use this system for financing offered in that currency. A participant, with a six-month advance notice and with the counsel of the participants may change to the other system for its currency, and other participants shall then use that system for that currency. The yen CIRR is the long-term prime rate MINUS 20 basis points for all maturities. The ecu CIRR is the secondary market yield on medium-term ecu bonds in the Luxembourg Stock Exchange...

3 ( i ) SDR means the IMF special drawing right WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE INTEREST RATES notified pursuant to paragraph 20 ( a )

( ii ) After any semi-annual period, a change in the SDR-weighted average interest rate shall be computed only on the basis of the IMF weightings of the SDR valuation basket in effect at the end of the semi-annual period.
From "Government Procurement/en/comm/dg01/procurem.htm

They can 'configure' inflation, neatly, expeditiously!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:10 - ID#231337)
BOJ ..... 27,000 tonnes
If I remember, that's about 2x the oz. of Gold in all of Europe.

So... lets say, a new currency is hatched ( Japan, Korea, Indonesia, etc plus open an invite to China ) ; lets back it at 27,000 tonnes, Japan picking up 1/2, and the others the rest, or if China comes in, a different split; lets call it the SEACA ( South East Asia Currency Accord ) ; offer it up as payment for oil... all of that will make the average political heatseaker in DC, London, Paris, etc take notice, and settle some long term and short term scores.

Unfortunately in the short run, that would also leave the bankers in Japan somewhat short of breath, ( as well as the bankers in USA an the West in general ) but would sure as hell make the point that SEA ( SEACA ) will start to control their own destiny.

Perhaps this would take more 'balls' than has been demonstrated in the past. BUT, perhaps some of the 3000 - 4000 tonnes that has changed hands in the last year is sitting in some secure place ready to be enabled. Perhaps they have even secured some delivery in terms of paper promises.

To me that says... Gold through the ceiling.....SEA currencies up.... solvency up,,, $$ down ( big Time ) .. return on even a little Gold sold to meet new demand at that point, would justify the journey. Now they can bale out at least some of their bankers.

The only problem would be that a Lexus would be more costly... but then again we could sell Fords in Japan for next to nothing. !!

Its a strategy. Someone must be working on a version!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:11 - ID#26793)
Anglo Gold news.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:14 - ID#411331)
@ Farfel: You are correct that George Bush was once a director of
Barrick Gold, along with his friend, Brian Mulroney, just after this much-detested ex-Canadian Prime Minister lost his job as CEO of Canada.
While PM, Mulroney arranged the now infamous sale of most of Canada's
CB gold reserves. I find it curious that having done the sale, he would
take on the job of managing one of the world's largest gold mining outfits. Can this be a coincidence? To have both Bush and Mulroney in the same gold mining company stretches incredulity to the limit. The
paper fix/problem was likely known 7 years ago, and the rats have positioned themselves in the biggest lifeboat they could find.

Today, as I drove to work in Toronto, imagine my surprise to hear a
15 second advertisement that was anti-gold. The message was that in
1997, gold prices had reached a 25 year low ( adjusted for inflation ) , and
that the Toronto Stock Exchange Index contained only a 5% weighting in
gold stocks. How long has it been since you heard an advertisement
telling you NOT to buy something?
In the same vein, an earlier poster to Kitco, also of this city, watched
on CTV television a glossy ad featuring a guy in a suit with a briefcase of precious metal, with the message that pms were a very risky thing to purchase. There is big money out there actively propagandizing against the buying of precious metals.

The question is who? We can both guess why.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:15 - ID#384350)
sam__A , Kodak hedged against a Silver price rise
From 10K Report to SEC by Eastman Kodak from link below

The Company has entered into silver option and futures contracts to minimize its exposure to increases in silver price in 1998. As of March 31, 1998, the Company had hedged approximately 50% of its planned silver requirements for 1998. Based on broker quoted termination values, if the price of silver decreased 10% from $6.44 per troy ounce at March 31, 1998, the fair value of silver options and futures would be reduced by $10 million. Such losses in fair value, if realized, would be offset by lower costs of silver-containing products manufactured during 1998.
So it appears that Kodak has tried to partially protect itself from a rising silver price. I don't know when they started doing this. Their action was likely influenced by the Buffett announcement, as Kodak feared a Silver price that might rise out of control.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:15 - ID#26793)
Low gold prices for this week blamed on fund sales.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:17 - ID#340302)
@LGB, SELBY...Spin is what Kitco is all about, fellas....
...and it's what markets are about too. Otherwise, we would not have a 9000 market in the face of radical global economic upheaval ( Of course, the spin that wins here is the mainstream Wall Street assurance that all this upheaval is beneficial to America....the very same Wall Street pundits who only several months ago were categorically asserting that SE Asia's problems would NEVER severely affect Japan ( ho, ho ) .

LGB, when you refer to me as Mr. One Note, I imagine you wish to distinguish between my pro-gold spin and your daily appearances on this forum repeating, "Gold market same as before" like some mindless parrot. I suppose I should take intellectual inspiration from your multi-dimensional analysis of the gold market. In fact, what you are doing by your regular pessimistic pronouncements about the gold market is you are spinning....spinning your own familiar brand of pessimism which promotes
gold investor despair and capitulation.

Spin has significant effects on markets. Remember that recent false Reuter News item about the Belgian CB governor declaring future gold sales ( when gold was at 315 ) . The gold market completely lost its upward momentum ( and has not yet recovered ) despite denials by the Belgian CB governor...all because of a fabricated, planted news item. Spin, my friend, moves markets.

Owing to spin, we have two major markets completely out of natural equilibrium...the general equities market and the gold market. One is way too high, the other way too low. All on account of spin.

Unfortunately, you do not like my spin...and I do not appreciate the falsehoods I believe Wall Street disseminates. For example, as I have stated many times before, I do not think crashing economies in SE Asia should be viewed as a "wonderful" thing for America. The very assertion is patently immoral. I reject that spin. Yet, that spin has successfully held the market for a lengthy, sustained period of time at lofty levels where it should not be. America is reaping benefits from a dysfunctional global economy it actually does not deserve.

If you ever study economics ( and I believe that is NOT your field of expertise ) , you will learn that markets can be aberrational, non-equilibrium markets for very lengthy periods of time. The self-correcting mechanisms need not be immediate. If you believe in classic Keynesian economics, yes, markets will immediately seek equilibrium...yet today, we live in a world in which Keynesian economics does not work anymore.

Let's look at platinum and palladium, two of your favorite PM's. I remember when the two whites were surging and you and RJ were going into
a state of sheer euphoria ( all the while disparaging gold's lacklustre price performance ) , I happened to make the comment that, if Wall Street's view of deflation is accepted, then in all likelihood, Plat and palladium must also fall.

Both of you went ballistic, castigating my stupidity and ignorance concerning white metals, and insisting that the white metal MUST rise independent of the fortunes of gold and other commodities.

I attempted to explain that Wall Street views white metals as mere commodities and, given that the Street is spinning a deflationary view of the world, then those commodities must also fall to validate that spin ( since in deflations, it is widely accepted that commodities fall in value ) . On the other hand, you and RJ propounded a set of esoteric statistics confirming in your minds that those white metals had only one possible direction...UP!

Well, guess what, the Wall Street spin is winning...they say we are experiencing global deflation and in order for the spin to be valid, then Bonds must rise, and ALL...I repeat ALL PM's must fall! That's what they are doing.

So, LGB, if you ever want your precious whites to appreciate in value, then you will stop spinning AGAINST gold and spin in favor of all PM's. Repeat. ALL PM'S! Because, as I have outlined previously, the likelihood of stagflation in the long run far outweighs the likelihood of deflation.

Selby...when you say you haven't posted many opinions over the past year, then I feel I must be in The Twilight Zone and I would suggest that statement is far less factual than my confusion between Bush's role on the Barrick board. Why do you persist in posting such obviously invalid info?

Because it's your opinion, that's why. And on Kitco, you are entitled your opinion as much as I am entitled to dispute it.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:20 - ID#255226)
Silver, S&P
I was stoped out of my remaining silver at 5.09 today and bought a 100% position right back near the close. The 5.06 low is 1.618 of wave a. A standard relationship according to Prechter's book. I still believe any purchase under 5.10 is a good one. Objective 5.80 +/-. If silver rallys to 5.80 gold could get back to 300 and fail. S&P should have finshed off its correction and begin an advance to 1250. It will be a narrow niffty fifty type advance.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:20 - ID#288295)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:22 - ID#384350)
Kodak & Silver from Annual Report

The Company has entered into silver option and futures contracts to minimize its exposure to increases in silver price in 1998. Silver price risk for 1997 was not hedged. As of December 31, 1997, the Company had hedged approximately 50% of its planned silver requirements for 1998. Using broker quoted termination values and assuming a 10% decrease in silver price from $5.99 per troy ounce at December 31, 1997, the decrease in fair value of silver options and futures would be $17 million. Such losses in fair value, if realized, would be offset by lower costs of silver- containing products manufactured during 1998.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:24 - ID#286230)
Go for your other Kneecap
Farfel: I'm afraid you have now removed any doubt about your lack of sincerity. I"m sure your view that Kitco is all about Spin will function as a tombstone for your posts. As for your suggestion that I'm insincere and post lots of opinions--Spin faster you are still here. Last communication with you--no opinion just fact.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:25 - ID#26793)
Chinese superstition says Year of the Tiger brings ferocious upheaval. Debt forgiveness requested.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:30 - ID#267344)
New Republic - unreliable?
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Editors at The New Republic are apologizing to readers after finding that ousted reporter Stephen Glass invented all or part of 27 of the 41 articles he wrote for the publication.

EJ - your prize is won - send mail to PO Box 1790, Tualatin, OR 97062 you lucky bastard! My e-mail address contains the name of my employer - information I am presently unwilling to disclose on this forum.
- c

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:32 - ID#93127)
(1) "average-weighted SDR interest rates" are so VERY interesting...

"This case is important because it establishes that ancillary obligations that are inextricably linked to monetary obligations denominated in a particular currency are subject to the power of a sovereign government over its currency. Thus, interest rate obligations linked to a particular currency are subject to regulation by the government of the country that issues the underlying currency. This is because interest rates are inextricably linked to monetary obligations.156 As stated by the Supreme Court in Henwood_ 157

interest is not paid on commodities but on monetary obligations. The intimate relationship between interest rates and money is amply demonstrated by the fact that on the foreign exchange markets the differential between the spot and forward exchange rates for any two currencies will be largely dictated by the different interest rates obtainable with respect to an investment in each currency.158"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:32 - ID#45173)
DOW/Nikkei dynamics
Nikkei heads into new-lows scary zone, closes in safety zone; DOW heads into new-lows scary zone, closes in safety zone. I figure the Japanese are buying time while they make the best move to preserve the wealth they have accumulated for the past 20 years. The DOW did the program trading thing.

I won a bottle of B&W Smirnoff from clone betting the Nikkei would close today above 15000 after a drop into the 14800's. I got a new bet, on Monday, but before I make it, a coupla questions:

1 ) If you are managing mutual funds in the US and the news from Asia and US companies is on a long negative trend for stocks, what's the smart thing to do now?

2 ) If you are a Japanese investor and you think the Nikkei is a bad place for capital and maybe now US equities are too, what's the smart thing to do?


(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:36 - ID#340302)
@SELBY...I am completely sincere... my belief in the true inherent value of gold. I am especially sincere in believing that our global economy is dysfunctional and must be replaced by a multi-regional economy which affords greater equity to the rest of the world. America CANNOT have it all anymore, sorry. We must share the wealth of this world in a much more egalitarian fashion. Otherwise, I truly believe there will be another major War...and the next one will likely be the last one.

On a micro-level, I will analogize to my town of Los Angeles. Here, in L.A., there was so much regional wealth inequity that the frustrations erupted earlier in the decade in the form of the L.A. riots. As a result of those riots, there were greater attempts by Westside L.A. to share the wealth. Unfortunately, we are slipping back to the same old inequity as
the Wall Street Pig Trough these last few years is favoring Westside wealth accumulation to an exponential degree above and beyond wealth gains made by the rest of the town.

With respect to the greater world we live in, we cannot risk a macro-version of the L.A. riots. The odds favor that the next major global conflict will be nuclear.

I spin these opinions in their best light. If I am breaking my own kneecaps, then it is a pain I truly enjoy.



Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:36 - ID#229103)
@Selby, LGB
I, for one, am sick of both of you gloating on this forum. Kicking people when they're down would cause a serious face-to-face confrontation.

Selby, the only thing I have seen you contribute was your vaunted question/prediction, "Why not gold at $250?" As gold drops toward that level I guess you are here to gloat. If it was such a great prediction, why did you pose it as a question? Before gold went to $800 I guess you also asked, "Why not gold at $800." Why don't you put your questions in the form of a newsletter? I'm sure someone would pay to read your questions.

LGB, you spoke to Farfel on the odds in the CA lottery. What were they, 18,000,000 to 1? What about the odds on some of the most important economic numbers driving this Goldilocks Economy: the employment numbers. I suppose you read and discounted the article posted here which stated that these numbers are suspect. Suspect to the tune of 1 in 60,000,000 that they are valid. The economist tracked several increments of 250,000 which accounts for the probability that the numbers are lies. Virtually everyone agrees that Klinton and most of his Kronies are liars. Perfect numbers come out whenever needed from this administration. But, to you, I guess these are the truths which are driving the markets.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:39 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...Palladium/shmadium
Why you keep saying I push Palladium is beyond me, I've never said a word about that metal. However, that little deviation from reality is consistenty with the rest of your pitch Farf..... Keep on "spinnin" though, the world will turn as it chooses, regardless of you, or any other "Spinmeister"....

"Spin" may have convinced Russkies, Chinese, and a few other cultures to believe in Marxism for awhile, but in the long run, truth about economic and political systems prevails.

Me a Gold basher? No way dude! I love the stuff...It's stupidity bashing I'm into, not the beautiful noble metal.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:42 - ID#45173)
clone: "lucky bastard" eh?
Damned with faint praise, I'd say. Oh, well. I accept. Good thing I didn't bet on the DOW today. I knew it was gonna tank early, but I was unsure of the extent of program trading to bring it back up again. Someone might have got me on it if I'd placed a bet. I was certain of the Nikkei, tho. My address is on its way with an invite to stop by anytime for a shot or two.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:46 - ID#269409)
@ DaveinCO..Unemployment
Anyone who thinks we don't have the lowest unemployment is decades, is an idiot.

It doesn't take a genious to look at things like massive ( and even unexpectedly massive ) revenue increases to the Fed Govt. & state govts. for example, to figure out what has happened in our economy the past few years.

Maybe YOU aren't employable pal, but just about everyone else who wants a job, skilled or otherwise,can take their pick. I've been traveling on Biz for years, always check the want ads in other citied, & never seen so many EVER in my lifetime. But that's just anecdotal evidence.

Irrefutable hard economic data tells the story. You think Greenie keeps makin noises about too many jobs just to hear himself whine? ( Yes yes I know, he's doin it to slow down the stock market bubble.... )

Go back to your Socialist diatribes Dave, I dig those!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:47 - ID#26793)
I will accept your economic predictions at 7:14 but not your political prediction about Gov. Weld. In order to be elected president he would have to switch to being a Democrat. He couldn't even get the Republicans to accept his nomination to the Ambassadorship of Mexico; how can he be a Republican candidate? He is an OK guy; likely would make a good president; but does not pass the inspection of Rev. Falwell and J. Helms. ( to his credit ) .

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:50 - ID#340302)
@LGB...why do you keep saying you love the gold metal...
...yet you consistently disparage her role in our world economy?

It's classic Orwellian double-speak, if you ask me.

Why not do us all a great favor? Cease and desist with your chronic negativity about the yellow metal. Why not try something sincere ( non-sarcastic ) questions as to why it is trading at less than 300

( Hey, guess what, I'll even stop referring to Plat as a mere commodity ) .



Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:54 - ID#229103)
When the truth comes out about Loral, I'm sure you will at the top of the layoff list since you spend all of your waking hours on the internet. Then you can get one of those great jobs out you're talking about.

You still didn't explain how/why this administration would defy the theories of probability to the tune of 60,000,000 to 1. Instead of attacking me, answer the question.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:55 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel....News for you too (they got Silver Comex data wrong though)
riday June 12, 3:54 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals end mostly lower again

NEW YORK, June 12 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly
lower again Friday, reflecting the ongoing strength of the US dollar and heavy fund short
sellings, traders said.

``The strength of the dollar and weak Asian demand are the big stories in commodities,
including gold, right now, with the whole of the commodities complex for sale by speculative
funds as a result,'' said Dinsa Mehta, Chase Manhattan Bank's global managing director for

``But gold prices will likely remain sticky downwards due to solid underlying physical demand
and small but consistent producer buybacks,'' he said.

COMEX August gold ended down $1.40 an ounce at $287.30, after slipping to the lowest level
since January intraday at $286.30.

Total COMEX gold volume was estimated at 40,000 lots Friday, after a large 7,197 lot jump in
open interest Thursday, reflecting additional fund short positions, traders said.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $285.60/10, its lowest level since 18 year lows
were seen in January at $277.00.

Earlier spot gold fixed in London Friday afternoon at $288.15, compared to the New York
close Thursday at $286.60/10.

Implied lease rates for gold edged up to 1.30 pct per annum for one month, from around 1.15
pct Thursday, reflecting financing of fresh short postions, while the 12 month rate was steady
around 1.90 pct.

The US dollar rose to a new seven year high at 144.75 yen Friday, while the US dollar's trade
weighted index edged up to eight year highs at 102.03 points.

``Some of the selling in gold today seemed to be dollar/rand related, in anticipation of some
South African producer selling,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a COMEX floor trader with
Hudson River Futures.

Overnight South Africa lowered its repo rate half a percentage point to 17.00 pct, and the rand
slumped to 5.3375 to the US dollar.

Gold prices in South African rand have been edging lower in recent weeks, after reaching at
12 month high in April. South Africa is the world's largest gold producer.

COMEX July silver ended down 5.2 cents an ounce at $5.103, with silver this week giving
back most of the gains of the past ten days, as it headed back down to test the six month lows
seen in May just below $5.00 an ounce.

But COMEX silver warehouse inventories have been edging back down again in recent weeks,
reflecting the ongoing underlying supply deficit, traders said.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks fell 237,057 ounces Thursday to 96,624,933 ounces, not far
from the 12 year lows seen earlier this year.

In the bullion market, spot silver ended quoted $5.13/16, compared to the London Friday fix at
$5.1670 and the New York close Thursday around $5.17/20.

Meanwhile, NYMEX July platinum closed down $1.80 at $349.00, while spot platinum prices
closed quoted around $348.00, the lowest level in six months.

``The Russian have returned to the platinum market for the first time in six months in the past
few days, so platinum prices remain under pressure,'' one US PGM dealer said.

``But the Russians have gone off the offer in palladium, after selling about 400,000 ounces in
May,'' he said.

NYMEX September palladium rose $10.40 an ounce to $271.60, as the palladium market
begins to tighten again, following the first Russian exports since last December last month.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:56 - ID#411331)
@ Farfel: Well said

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:59 - ID#343171)
Wim Duisenberg, president of the recently formed

European Central Bank, said in Frankfurt that gold

has been found to be carcinogenic. The banker stated

"we are sitting on literaly tons of toxic poison".

(Fri Jun 12 1998 18:59 - ID#340302)
@LGB...the quality of jobs... much more important that the quantity.

Unfortunately, most jobs in our economy, to use a popular colloquialism, SUCK!

Clinton has done a wonderful job of creating all variety of low-wage service jobs over the last several inferior that most middle-income families require two breadwinners today in order to get by.

Why such poor performance?

Because Clinton ( the Democrat in Republican clothing ) is actually anti-union, pro-big business, pro-Wall Street, anti-schools, anti-medical care, and pro-campaign fund raiser.

Finally, if taxes collected are truly as high as government figures suggest, then where these taxes going? Into the pockets of the Suhartos of the world? Why is the country's infrastructure...most notably the roads...falling apart?



(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:00 - ID#45173)
During the depths of the last recession in the US in the late 1970s and early 1980s, there were no "Everything for a Dollar" and "Bargain Pet Supplies" stores and bargain stores of every kind. Now they are everywhere. Why is that?

Look around you and you see a massive disparity of wealth like never before in history. There are plenty of jobs, thousands of high-paying jobs for info workers and owners of capital and millions of low-paying jobs for everyone else. This is not an economic problem, this is a political problem. For the past 20 years the US government has redistributed wealth from the lower and middle classes to the top 5%. The politics of monetary policy has created a political problem. Politics will "fix" it with economic measures. Government will redistribute wealth back to the middle and lower classes in the US in the next cycle. Again, read:

It's hard to imagine now but there will be inflation again, lots of it. Gold will rise. Go long and prosper.

p.s. This does not mean there will not be opportunities for excellent stock investments. It's just that you may make more investing in debt or gold. I will keep some capital liquid for these opportunities.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:01 - ID#269409)
@ DaveinCO......"Just answer the question"
You say "Just answer the question?" When you pose an intelligent question that squares with something happening in the real world the rest of us live in, ....I'll answer it. Till then, keep on livin in that little "inner world" of yours Dave.

As to Loral, not to worry. Stock is climbing, Govt. report released last week states that the whole issue is a non issue, and was a routine waiver, and Loral is quite happy with my performance, and rewards it accordingly at each review, as I ( like many engineering types ) get the job DONE, in my own creative way, regardless of whether I have other interests. In fact, it seems that those with the broadest interests, seem to often be the most productive in this world....contradictory though that may sound to you.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:03 - ID#93127)
CoolJing--That's only in Frankfort...
in Basle Jin is Tonic! {:- )
Perhaps that is because Basle is one of the oldest intellectual centers
in Europe?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:05 - ID#269409)
@ EJ...shhhhhhh
Don't tell Farfel or DaveinCO about what's clearly ocurring in our economy. They live in their own little universe. We don't wanna rock their boat, they think there's a depression going on here, while you and I watch the greatest boom time in history, blossoming before our eyes!

( No wonder they're so dour eh? They can't enjoy even the GOOD times! I hate to think how they'll do when times get tough... )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:06 - ID#26793)
Asian woes raise risk of Deflation

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:08 - ID#342376)
@ CoolJing
Perfect post, VERY funny. A little humor is needed after this week, thanks.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:08 - ID#376309)
my two cents
The chance that gold could stage a rally at this point is so close to ZERO that it is not even an option. All attempts at rallies should be SOLD! On a scale of 1 - 10 I'm currently at a '1.5', and the only reason I said 1.5 instead of 1 is because there are going to be fools out there who are going to buy Gold thinking it will go up and we have dropped alot this week. None the less all rallies should be sold. Once you are short stay short because we are about to go lower than anyone imagines!

Gold went down today, silver went down today, the XAU and ABX went down today. Homestake Mining went up today. When something continues to defy login, when it does correct it normally goes down even more. HM will go to '5' or lower before we are over. That's right I said FIVE DOLLARS A SHARE OR LOWER!!

I'm short from 297.80 and I'm not covering when we hit 280.0. The only thing on my mind is where can I double down.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:12 - ID#227238)
Who was it that said Kitco food fights were a thing of the past? ......
"Egos to the left of us,
"Egos to the right of us,
volleyed and thundered".

With apologies to A.L.T.

There is nothing like vituperation, at the end of a bad week.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:14 - ID#269409)
@'s yer fault pal!
Hey, you summoned me "front and center" because Kitco was too quiet! So it's all your fault...Besides, I'm just spicing up yet another bad metals day to take their minds off the continuing dismal performance of Gold!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:14 - ID#286230)
Dave in CO
What is "CO" anyway Dave? Gloat--why would I gloat? Or why do you think I would gloat? I guess my one contribution had a real effect on you eh Dave. Can you remember the rationale I presented and have you seen any implications from it yet Dave? Its been about 18 months so far since I raised the $250 issue Dave--too politely perhaps.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:18 - ID#26793)
Finally! A place for old intellectuals. Thanks for the tip on Basle.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:19 - ID#287129)
glenn (my two cents)
After the beating and bleeding that many of us have gone through this week with gold and other PM's, your opinion AND the way you stated it are as about as welcome here to some of us as stinking bulls**t.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:19 - ID#227238)
Glenn: Anyone who would argue with your last post, still believes in the tooth fairy, truth, justice and the American way. .... But they are here, alive and kicking.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:22 - ID#301318)
China Chivers

London Financial Times, Wed. June 10th 1998:

By James Kynge in Beijing
and John Ridding in HK

Copyright: Financial Times

China appealed to Japan yesterday to stabilise the yen as it gave its
most gloomy assessment yet of the impact of Asia's financial crisis
on Chinese exports and inward investment.
Dai Xianglong, governor of the People's Bank of China, the
central bank, said the influence of east Asia's crisis on China was
"getting bigger and bigger".
"The economic adjustments in east Asia and the sluggish Japanese
economy, in particular the depreciation of the yen, are having a very
unfavourable effect on China's exports and [the country's] ability to
attract foreign investment." said Mr. Dai. "We hope the Japanese
government will take effective measures to stabilise the yen."
He said the renminbi, China's currency, would be kept stable
but did not repeat the previous official promise of no devaluation.
Some analysts discerned in this subtle distinction a hint Beijing may
be preparing to guide the renminbi gradually lower. Chinese exports
to Japan made up 17 per cent of the total last year.
Shares in mainland companies plunged on the Hong Kong stock
market, underlining fears that the fall in the Japanese yen would force
China to devalue.
During the day's trading in Tokyo, the Japanese currency touched
141.11 against the dollar, its weakest for seven years. It later
strengthened to 140.2 in New York.
A senior Chinese official, who declined to be indentified, said the
outlook for the Japanese economy figured in a flurry of policy meetings
in Beijing. Scenarios on how China would be affected by the yen at 160,
170 and 200 to the US dollar were being drawn up.
A multilateral effort led by the US to stabilise the yen may be needed
in the future, said the official. "So far, devaluation of the renminbi
is not being considered," the official said. "The biggest worry is that the HK
dollar peg may be threatened if the yen falls even more sharply.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:22 - ID#287129)
Adding to my comment of 19:19...
If my previous comment "glenn ( my two cents ) " sounded somewhat harsh, perhaps it is because I DO NOT LIKE BEING KICKED WHEN I'M DOWN!!!


(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:23 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel....personal pronouns
Farfel, you said, "why do you keep saying you love the gold metal.. ...yet you consistently disparage her role...."

HER role Farfel? Last time I checked, Gold was still an inanimate metal. Look now, I'm startin to worry about you pal...yer not sleepin with curvaceously shaped Gold bars these days are you?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:25 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...wait..I get it!
I got it now...that's the name of the new replacement "Spice Girl" right? "GOLD Spice"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:26 - ID#93127)
Donald--Intellectual, YES! old? No Sir!

In passing, BOJ has on-site an interesting display of minted gold coins.
The Taiko Fundokin is--to my eye--particularly appealing ( but they are
all quite lovely! ) .

Did you know that Japan had gold mines? I didn't...wonder why BOJ is
just now bringing forward their past link with gold? {:- ) )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:26 - ID#220325)
APH re: your 18:20 post
I followed the same path with the same result except I have not bought back yet. Thanks for the update

Strad Master
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:27 - ID#250297)
News from the cutthroat world of Pharmaceuticals!
ALL: Here is something interesting. Today's PPI number was up somewhat primarily on increases in the price of Pharmaceuticals. My wife, being an Emergency doctor at a big HMO, tells me that in recent weeks the prices of some GENERIC drugs have skyrocketed because the makers of these drugs have cornered the markets on key ingredients. The brand name companies can't get supplied and are just stuck. An example is Adavan ( brand name ) vs. Lorazepan ( generic name ) . Adavan used to cost $1 a unit. Lorazepan is now $20 per unit. Yet,the HMO is cornered into selling Lorazepan because the makers of Adavan can't get supplied and consequently seem to have stopped making it. And you thought genereics were the way to go... Too bad we can't do something similar with gold!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:27 - ID#340302)
@DAVE IN CO...shhh, don't tell LGB...
...that his special defense job is the exception, not the rule in this country.

Let's talk about janitors for a while...

Don't let him know that Clinton has helped Big Business bust the majority of Janitors Unions in the country such that janitors who once earned an average $10.00 an hour are lucky to earn $6.00 an hour. Enough to spend on a lavish macaroni dinner for two.

Don't let him know that the majority of today's janitors do not speak a word of English because Clinton threw open Third World borders in order to allow his Big Business Buddies to find the cheapest labor in the world thereby undercutting ( and excluding ) the average American laborer who cannot survive on such low wages. Of course, Clintonites will say that it's made America more competitive and raised the average American's standard of living...that's what Gallo used to say about paying Mexicans pennies an hour to pick grapes in its fields.

Don't let him know that Clinton has done next to Nada for schools in how can the average American ever be trained properly for high skill positions in this country?

Dave...just don't let him know, OK? Let him sit there in his plush Loral office fantasizing about the absolute paradise America has become.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:28 - ID#227238)
LGB: God! I love it so. .... After my comment to Aurophile yesterday ( on food fights ) , it occured ( occurred? ) to me that I haven't touched pencil to tongue and joined the fray in the better of a year. In fact, your sweeping entry onto the site, may have provided my last source of inspiration. ...... Would you mind exiting and coming back in again?

But, times change. The heart grows softer .... as the arteries become harder. ....... and Viagra is seen a miracle drug. Sigh!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:28 - ID#45173)
Donald: re my post Fri Jun 12 1998 07:20
You're right about Weld today. But you have to think ahead to Weld in the world of late 1999. Also, think back. Who was Bill Clinton in 1990? Nobody. The Democratic party will be turned on its head in 1999. Just as Clinton is a Republican in Democrat clothing, Weld is a Democrat dressed like a Republican. Believe me. He's the man. He will be the 1999 FDR.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:37 - ID#343171)
old quote
markets can remain irrational
longer than you can remain solvent

my favorite quote:
there is no such thing as a premature ejaculation

Strad Master
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:40 - ID#250297)
FARFEL: LGB works for Loral???!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:40 - ID#269409)
@ Bit o' retrospective...good for the soul....
Those who don't study history are doomed..etc.

1 ) The ANOTHER quote

A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before. I will post later in march!

2 ) Reality


3 ) Another ANOTHER quote

"Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end.

4 ) Reality


Strad Master
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:42 - ID#250297)
LGB: Hi. I should have asked you directly but didn't know you were on. Do you work for Loral?

Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:42 - ID#229103)
@Earl, Skip
Skip: Agreed. Last post I remember from him was when he said the gold had bottomed for sure above $290. So much for that bottom.

Earl: Since I'm not a short-term trader, these drops are not the end of the world. But I do have problems with people who come in to kick us while we're down. As Farfel said, they won't be anywhere to be found when the tables turn.
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:43 - ID#434108)
"Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We'll build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration camp. That, is the bastion of money." - A. Hitler

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:44 - ID#269409)
@ Earl...Gold or Viagra
I gotta get my advanced engineering calculator and figure out what's worth more per Oz. !!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:45 - ID#45173)
Gold at $250? At $350? Who cares?
The price of gold is luffing at the low end of an equity gale. When the wind of soft asset flight hits the precious metals sail, the gold ship will sail farther than ever before. The current spread is noise.

As far as I'm concerned, the sooner that the depth of the debt cycle ends and gold goes back down again the better. Capital in gold is unproductive.

Bully Beef
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:45 - ID#259282)
Bart is humourous. His chart reads -6 to +6 dollars
Always a comedian.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:49 - ID#269409)
@ Strad...hello again
Yes. Space System Loral, a communication satellite manufacturer. ( Not in the defense biz in spite of Farfel's usual misinformed posts to the contrary )

And if yer interested in the TRUE facts re that launch waiver, which I absolutely KNOW to be true firsthand I might add.... here ya go.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:50 - ID#342376)
What bothers me is not that someone may have a negative outlook for the Price of Gold, after all a market goes up and down and everyone has an opionion and are entitled to it, what gets me is the lack of sensitivity of some posters when they must know many are losing money. Not everyone here is a trader. Although sometimes I wish I were, as that seems to be the only way to make any money. Many of the food fights arise from traders vs. investors. Investors need to be aware that traders are looking to make money in either direction. They may not have emotion tied to only one direction. They are just doing what they do. On the other hand, traders need to understand that there are many investors here that are looking for the POG to go up, period.
(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:54 - ID#434108)
Ludwig von Mises on the gold standard
"The eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact that it makes the determination of the monetary unit's purchasing power independent

of the measures of government. It wrests from the hands of the 'economic csars' their most redoubtable instrument. It makes it impossible for them to inflate ( or deflate ) . That is why the gold standard is furiously attacked by all those who expect they will benefit by the bounties from the seemingly inexhaustible government purse." - L. vonMises

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:55 - ID#286230)
When it bottoms and I buy I'll let you know
Hey Dave-- don't you know what or where CO is--- or aren't you talking now that you have delivered your one opinion--again--. Actually and just to clarify for you that I'm not gloating over my 250 call--it was based on 1996 estimates--do you remember of what Dave? Since then many of the higher price mines have closed--Dave do you know what this does to the $250 estimate?--why it lowers it Dave. But don't gloat I figured it out too.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:55 - ID#269409)
Ouuta Here
It's been fun as always...back in a week or so. Now Farfel, get yer pom pom's & cheer along with me.

Gold is King
DOW don't schwing
Gold is boss
Stocks mean loss
Gold is power
I need a shower

(Fri Jun 12 1998 19:58 - ID#286253)
@Gianni; Re: Kodak, Silver leasing and negative inventories.

Thanks for the link ( see below. ) Yes, I had heard something to this effect ( Kodac hedging ) so perhaps my use of this company as an example was ill-adivised. ( It just happens to be the most well-known silver consumer around. ) Some thoughts:

Read this statement closely - all it says is that it has hedged future consumption. This does _not_ mean that it is _not_ short w.r.t. a dealer; i.e. that it does not also owe dealer a whack of silver. If they did owe silver, it would probably not show on the balance sheet as the accountant would consider it a push ( they might owe a dealer the bullion, but they have the exact same amount downstairs, chopped up and dissolved - to the accountant it looks the same. ) But the fact that they might be short the bullion is significant not for Kodak - they appear to be partially hedged and in the longer run they'll just raise the price of film - but for the market as a whole. An example might illustrate:

I am Warren Buffet, you are Discount Film Inc. I lend you 1 mil oz of silver to make film for the quarter at 3%, which is a much better deal than you get at the bank. You have a contract with your distributors to essentially sell the silver-content of the film for $5/oz. You think to yourself - whoa, I better get covered. So you go long three months hence. _You_ are now covered, but what what does this mean for the market?

A month later the World runs out of silver. Lease rates go from from 3% to 30%. When it comes time to roll the contract with Mr. Buffet, you say no thanks, I'll go to the bank this time at 7.5%. Mr. Buffet says - but you owe me my silver, I want to lend it to someone else at 30%. What do you do? You take delivery of your long, that's all. You take delivery of your long AND you buy cash silver with your bank loan ( you need the silver for production for the coming quarter. ) This effectively doubles demand overnight. You are collapsing two periods of consumption into one period of production -- at a time when the market can least afford it.

This thread started when it was suggested that consumers "reduce inventories" in times of falling prices. My point was and is that there are no inventories to reduce; the industry is maintaining _negative_ inventories at present. This is the result of years and years of collapsing ever-more periods of production into a single period of consumption. And if it took 10 years to get ourselves into this mess, it's gonna take but an instant to reverse the process. Kaboom.




From 10K Report to SEC by Eastman Kodak from link below

The Company has entered into silver option and futures contracts to minimize its exposure to increases in silver price in 1998. As of March 31, 1998, the Company had hedged approximately 50% of its planned silver requirements for 1998. Based on broker quoted termination values, if the price of silver decreased 10% from $6.44 per troy ounce at March 31, 1998, the fair value of silver options and futures would be reduced by $10 million. Such losses in fair value, if realized, would be offset by lower costs of silver-containing products manufactured during 1998.

Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:07 - ID#229103)
As you and EJ stated, the top 5%, including you and me and LGB, are doing great. My question is, in the future, who will support the other 95% in the manner to which they have become accustomed? Let me guess: people like you and me and LGB?

Defense industry? All day on the internet? Creativity? Big raises? Tax dollars? Now we now why the janitors are only making $6/hour.

Let me pose my question to you. WHAT IDIOT would believe an economic number which has 60,000,000 to 1 odds against its validity. Can we see a show of hands. Yes, we have one vote from the guy in a plush office who appears to be deeply engrossed in his job.

Bully Beef
(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:08 - ID#259282)
Ditto crazytimes. Big dif. Put me in investor cat.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:10 - ID#340302)
@LGB...I'm so glad to know that satellite communications...
...have nothing to do with the defense biz ( ho, ho! )

I always knew they launched those damn things with slingshots, not rockets. NOT!

I'm getting out of here too...

But first...

THE LGB SONG in C Major.

My Plat's been fallin
Leaves me bawlin
So I comes here to Kitco
Where I kin letgo
Of all my hate
Against the goldbug race



(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:10 - ID#286230)
Rand, C$ and A$ all Down--Must be the lack of Gold

Robust dollar sends
rand to fresh lows

Samantha Enslin and Greta Steyn

A RAMPANT dollar sent the rand to record lows
yesterday despite the Reserve Bank's efforts to
enforce exchange controls more stringently.

The Bank drew traders' attention early in the day with
a circular warning them not to break the rules in the
forward market.

Senior bankers then met Bank deputy governor James
Cross in Pretoria to clarify the circular. Reuter reports
the Bank said in the circular that forex traders were
not complying uniformly with current exchange control

Cross said bankers asked for the meeting to clarify
practical issues.

"Concerns have been expressed that we are adding to
exchange controls, but this is not at all the case. This
is about enforcing the existing rules." The Bank was
not under the impression that there was widespread
transgression of the rules, he said.

Existing legislation states that underlying transactions
in the forward market must relate to a transaction to
which an SA institution is party or is a principal.
Nonresidents also have to provide confirmation that
they have an SA exposure if they wish to hedge the
exposure in the forward market.

Cross also took the opportunity to discuss the
situation in the markets with the bankers. He still
believed the rise in interest rates was temporary.

Asked whether the Bank was now more prepared to let
the rand weaken, he said the dollar's strength on
international markets required an adjustment in the
rand exchange rate. "That is a normal phenomenon.
There were other international factors that required
special action. We sincerely hope they will prove to be

A 3c dip by the rand to a fresh low against the dollar
yesterday rattled the equity market and stunted what
appeared to be the beginning of a bond market

The circular temporarily stemmed the rand's losses
before it sank to a record R5,25 and by 6pm it was
trading at R5,2620.

The market was still waiting for other banks to move
on their prime lending rates after Absa and NBS
Boland increased their prime lending rate to 20,25%
on Wednesday.

Standard Bank group MD Mike Vosloo said lending
rates should already have risen by three percentage
points. Standard indicated that it was not likely to hold
off on raising its rates longer than the weekend.

"The process of adjusting interest rates in the new
system is still being debated. We hope a legitimate
adjustment procedure can be agreed upon so that
there is not a political crisis each time rates have to
rise," Vosloo said.

He said Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's request to
banks to hold off in the national interest had sparked
a debate on the principles driving interest rate
adjustments. Standard did not feel comfortable raising
rates in such a highly politicised environment.
Politicians were trying to "have their cake and eat it"
by wanting a banking system that would remain
competitive and profitable while at the same time
bearing the strains of a currency crisis.

Short-covering and institutional support saw bonds
hold steady in morning trade, touching a best level of
14,61%. However, the rand's slide knocked
confidence, taking the benchmark R150 bond nine
basis points weaker to 14,80% in afternoon trade.
Yesterday evening it was at 14,90%.

The all share index, weighed down by the rand,
continued losses on emerging markets and a
lacklustre gold price, dropped 55 points to 7 085.

Gold fixed in London in the afternoon at $290,30/oz. It
closed $3,30 weaker at $290,05. In New York it fell a
severe $6,40 to $286,85.

The US 30-year treasury was at its strongest level in
history with a yield of 5,66%, but equities on Wall
Street finished 160 points weaker at 8 812.

Standard Bank's economics division expected the
rand to remain under pressure, possibly weakening to
R5,45 by the end of the year. It said the rand at these
levels was significantly undervalued against a
long-term purchasing power parity basis and this
would cushion it against a sudden collapse.

Manuel yesterday attacked the National Party ( NP ) for
negative comments about the state of the economy.
"There can't be any merits in continuing to talk this
economy down," Manuel said in debate on his budget.
Sapa reports that the R201bn budget was approved
by the National Council of Provinces last night,
completing its passage through Parliament.

Manuel questioned references by the NP to recent
negative assessments of the SA economy by debt
rating agencies, saying their views were important, but
not always correct. "Southeast Asia has shown that
( the agencies ) are as fallible as any other economist."

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:11 - ID#253418)
Thank God it's Friday
Really had it this week. The frustrating thing is the reason to own silver , in particular, have never seemed to be so good, yet the price is weak. Along with capital seems wise to preserve emotional strenght as well. At some point the commercial shorts and the funds will have to buy and it seems to me that will be from the last very strong hands.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:11 - ID#290172)
How to 'win' enemies and influence precious little...

Whether or no it is true, it will be accepted as 'true fact' by many

"But others said another big factor was Sing dollar sales by agent banks of large American fund managers."

Unhappily, this sort of 'attribution' finds its way into most currency stories out of Asia.
( one tends to believe 75% of them )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:13 - ID#45173)
crazytimes: investing vs trading
A person who has emotion tied to an investment is a person who is going to lose money. Period. The prices of things don't go up or down because you want them to. If you make your living trading, then you need to know day to day what's going on with your investments. If you make your living doing something else, then you need to check once in a while on how your investments are doing and make changes accordingly.

I get the impression that gold is an investment for you, that you make your living elsewhere. If you believe the price of gold will go down, you should sell if transaction costs allow. If you think they're near the bottom and they'll go up, you should buy. If you believe that gold will go down and stay there for a long time, or that gold will rise slowly and you'll have plenty of time to get in, then your money belongs elsewhere. If you get really good at reading short-term trends then you can make lots of money. If you are good at reading long term trends you can also make lots of money, it will take longer but you can spend your time doing other things meanwhile.

That is all.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:13 - ID#433172)
not much
The Chinese have a saying," He makes progress like a hampster." I think that describes the American economy lately. Like most here I expected the DOW to continue down this afternoon, but to be suprised by "it" is no surprise. On the local level buildings are going up all over the place and vehicles are roaring around etc. Halibut is selling for 1.35 to the processor. No great prosperity for the most,even the few. Except of course for the land speculators.
I wish I'd known then what I know now I'd have more cash to invest in Canadian jrs about twice as much. Oh well I have better judgement now, and you always have to pay your dues when you get into something new.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:15 - ID#269207)
To LBJ, if things are as great as you say lbj, then why don't we raise minmum wage
to at least a living wage? About 5 years ago, the Gov't figured that $11.00 @hr was a living wage in most Cities ( Atlanta was study site ) , why do we insist on gov't subsidy ( thru welfare/health care and food stamps ) of wages for companies that won't or can't pay a living wage?
(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:16 - ID#434108)
Why Russia opposes NATO intervemtion in Kosovo /(bbc)

Bully Beef
(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:18 - ID#259282)
EJ .Two good questions earlier.
How much for the answers?

Dave in CO
(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:19 - ID#229103)
I don't claim to be an expert on economics, as you seem to think you are, but I do know a pompous condescending ass when I read one. And you are a classic one.

CO is the abbreviation for Colorado since you don't seem to know.

I really don't care what your prediction is, but this time at least you formed it as a statement instead of a question so you can be held by others as to its accuracy.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:26 - ID#27341)
Global Report part-0
After countless studies at Kitco of many imputs from fine inputers with great knowledge and insight, have constructed the New Milenia Economic Indicator, the performance requirements being thus,IN A WORD!
The NMEI found after the imput of x=y9 -1oil =Jy fx23%c# kioh djia=0+$
quan+enst-1=8795-corn%bons. :nz-oz-sik%dim-wit=B%mkts=+us$ 8** gred=
tek-cht%-fund ment++++ins10.0000=no mks grn-%$dun au=+++% 500-us$
======== STUFFED!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:29 - ID#190411)
POG in your shorts
As of a week ago, the commitments of traders showed commercial users quite long.
Now, after some off the cuff remarks by Euroman, the yellow has dived to the lows of before. Obviously, this wasn't due to WD's comments, as POG rose on the day following.
There is a tremendous short position that has developed in the past week amongst the speculators.
Does anyone have a grasp on the cost of this short position? In other words, If I wanted to crash a commodity price, that is as badly whacked as POG, what would it take?
An attractive side benefit would be the prospect of acquiring gold stocks at a 20% discount.
I am not offering this as a wacko conspiracy, I just want to know from someone, who professes knowledge of Comex markets, whether this could be a profitable manipulation.

Does anyone know of any upper management types from the major gold producers that frequent this site? I don't recall any of them ever being here. They rely on others to try to divine the conditions of the PM markets.
Friday night dinner out with 11 yr old girls beckons-shoving dollars in my ears: have no toilet paper.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:31 - ID#190411)
POG in your shorts
As of a week ago, the commitments of traders showed commercial users quite long.
Now, after some off the cuff remarks by Euroman, the yellow has dived to the lows of before. Obviously, this wasn't due to WD's comments, as POG rose on the day following.
There is a tremendous short position that has developed in the past week amongst the speculators.
Does anyone have a grasp on the cost of this short position? In other words, If I wanted to crash a commodity price, that is as badly whacked as POG, what would it take?
An attractive side benefit would be the prospect of acquiring gold stocks at a 20% discount.
I am not offering this as a wacko conspiracy, I just want to know from someone, who professes knowledge of Comex markets, whether this could be a profitable manipulation.

Does anyone know of any upper management types from the major gold producers that frequent this site? I don't recall any of them ever being here. They rely on others to try to divine the conditions of the PM markets.
Friday night dinner out with 11 yr old girls beckons-shoving dollars in my ears: have no toilet paper.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:33 - ID#342376)
@ EJ
Point well taken, thank you. I find it difficult to not have some emotion in Gold however, perhaps I shouldn't be investing in it. It seemed clear to me when I got in that markets where far overvalued and gold undervalued and I felt the world was ( and still is ) heading into a deal of chaos which would support the Gold price. I had NO idea of the AMOUNT of manipulation that goes on with the POG and for that matter, the US Markets. That is the single greatest thing I have learned. But you are right about deciding what a person's goals are and what time frame we are looking at. I make my living elsewhere but Gold still looks like it could make me quite comfortable when it gets going. I am reminded of the fact that you havn't lost any money until you actually sell stocks at a loss. I am still in it for the long-term. By the way, thanks for the repost on "Drinking Guide for Gold at $500" It was me that requested it. You must repost that when gold is at 500. I hope we're both alive.......

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:34 - ID#45173)
Bully Beef: Well, you got your answers and I got mine
Question is, what are yours and are you willing to bet on 'em. You can bet whatever you want. Vodka's is popular here...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:35 - ID#284255)
Worth a repeat?? - Database program for coin collectors
Y2K Update: Canada
What The Experts Think

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:38 - ID#267344)
EJ - It was a very good call you made that I fundamentally agreed with.
But I figured that since my instincts usually turn out to be wrong, that I might stand a chance at winning if I bet against them - foiled again! You were not a "lucky bastard," I just had to call you that to appease my disappointment in losing. Your suggestion involved much more than luck - it involved insight. In fact, this Friday has verified what I have up until todaay only assumed - that governments will resist market forces as long as they can. Today it was China, Japan, and the US. I believe that the actions of these three governments may have actually succeded in "putting off" the inevitable for at least another week - but perhaps much longer. Monday will be very interesting, to say the least. My congratulations on anticipating exactly what happened - you have earned your fifth. Our visions of the future are very similar. I got into metals too early as well. Better early than late!
- c

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:41 - ID#284255)
The writing was on the wall.
Yesterdays reversal rallies in Asia was the warning.
Somebody wispered that they were going to pull off a Dow reversal.
And the houses started buying before the time.

It had me perplexed how all those languishing Asian indices
Suddenly turned around and surged upwards.
My guess is the PPT spilt the beans to
The main brokerage houses.
Spilt the beans that there would be Dow reverssal.

And so there was.
Talk about a manipulated market.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:43 - ID#373284)
Stevie Ray...Little Wing...THANKS for the music.....
Racing with Turtles...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:47 - ID#288295)
Nice explanation of the silver dilemma. 'Kaboom' .... One of these ( very fine ) days.....

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:52 - ID#284255)
Yardini - Congressional Testimony: "The Year 2000 Problem: We Need The Full Monty!"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:55 - ID#210114)
Doing my bit to stop the Great Depression: May the Pants be with you.
With all the depressed sentiment in the gold market and here on the Kitco chat line, I've decided to post a 'funny' for you to mull on.

1 ) A tremor in the pants. The last time I felt this was in the presence
of my old master.
2 ) You are unwise to lower your pants.
3 ) We've got to be able to get some reading on those pants, up or down.
4 ) She must have hidden the plans in her pants. Send a detachment down
to retrieve them. See to it personally Commander.
5 ) These pants may not look like much, kid, but they've got it where it
6 ) I find your lack of pants disturbing.
7 ) These pants contain the ultimate power in the Universe. I suggest we
use it.
8 ) Han will have those pants down. We've got to give him more time!
9 ) General Veers, prepare your pants for a surface assault.
10 ) I used to bulls-eye womp-rats in my pants back home.
11 ) TK-421. . . Why aren't you in your pants?
12 ) Lock the door. And hope they don't have pants.
13 ) Governor Tarkin. I recognized your foul pants when I was brought on
14 ) You look strong enough to pull the pants off of a Gundark.
15 ) Luke. . . Help me take...these pants off.
16 ) Great, Chewie, great. Always thinking with your pants.
17 ) That blast came from those pants. That thing's operational!
18 ) Don't worry. Chewie and I have gotten into a lot of pants more
heavily guarded than this.
19 ) Maybe you'd like it back in your pants, your highness.
20 ) Your pants betray you. Your feelings for them are strong. Especially
one. Your sister!
21 ) Jabba doesn't have time for smugglers who drop their pants at the
first sign of an Imperial Cruiser.
22 ) Yeah, well short pants is better than no pants at all, Chewie.
23 ) Attention. This is Lando Calrissean. The Empire has taken control of
my pants, I advise everyone to leave before more troops arrive.
24 ) I cannot teach him. The boy has no pants.
25 ) You came in those pants? You're braver than I thought.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:57 - ID#376309)
I totally feel for you and that is one reason that I do not post any more. I know that some of you have lost alot and I have nothing good to say about Gold. I does not make me feel good to kick someone when they are down ( honestly ) . I did make a post when gold was going above $310 how I was going long but I did get out of that one fairly quick. I did state about a week later when we were at $312.50 that I had turned bearish.

Anyway, if you want to make money get out of your longs on Monday and reverse into shorts. Don't do it because it is right, don't do it because it makes sense, do it for no other reason than you want to make money!

I'm very very bearish right now and as we go down I will not post and rub it in, I prosmise! But I will be selling all rallies and making alot of money.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 20:58 - ID#210114)
Does a Bear Sh** on Gold?
The 300, 291 and 287 support points have now all been breached. Gold heading down to $US278 IMVHO. Perhaps even lower.

Will buy if it gets to these levels.

Live Long and Prosper ( May your Pants be with you )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:07 - ID#27341)
Beattie for Queenland, GO GO GO, YES.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:10 - ID#342315)
SDRer re Jap Mines
There are quite a few good gold mines in Japan. Several run over 1 oz/ton. Kushikino mine is one used in professional literature as an example of geology etc. Some of these have been developed way back. If you're interested. I'll get some dates

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:12 - ID#45173)
sharefin: I know Y2K is a problem
but I'd sure like to hear from someone else besides Yardini and the usual suspects on the issue. One starts to get the impression the guy either has an axe to grind or is so committed to his position by public exposure that he can't modify it at all without losing all credibility. Are you aware of anyone new on the Y2K scene? My personal access to info has dried up since I stopped trying to sell my company's software to IT departments to manage Y2K projects. Turns out that if a product does not significantly improve productivity of the Y2K fix effort, then it's no sale. Really, only tools for locating critical code ( stuff that actually gets executed a lot ) and identifying bugs can do that. In fact, I feel for anyone trying to make commission selling to a lot of IT departments in the next year. Many IT groups have their budgets and mind-share heavy into fixing Y2K problems.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:16 - ID#210127)

Here is an url that is pretty sound...not a lot of hype..try it you'll like it:

Hey chas...whatzup??


(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:18 - ID#233199)
@SKIP 19:22 Speak for your self...

" sounded somewhat harsh, perhaps it is because I DO NOT LIKE BEING KICKED WHEN I'M DOWN!!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:18 - ID#286230)
Now Now Dave
Dave in Colorado: Do you have any predictions on gold's price Dave or is your contribution to remain at the level of name calling. Have I ever failed to answer my prediction of $250 Dave? Do you know what a rhetorical question is Dave? You actually make it difficult not to act like a pompous ass since the pomposity is all in your mind. Neither predictions nor rationale nor actually being almost right is enough for you my dear fellow. Do you think a discussion group is only for people who prove to be wrong or cheerleaders --all others are "gloaters" in your view. Tough night for you sir-- I hope you get something right soon.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:18 - ID#284255)
And here's the proof - before the rally.
Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 03:59
sharefin ( China central bank intervenes to support yuan ) ID#284255:

What stimulated the reversal???

Many Asian indices and OZ's All ords staged a rather large reversal today.
Very unusual ocurance when the Dow has just plummeted.

Do some birds know that a reversal similiar to last Octobers?
Will be attempted with the Dow.

Let the sellers sell for the first hour
And then ramp the futures up to crate a new rally.

Perhaps the PPT has been in touch with a few brokerage houses???

Something smells fishy...
So the PPT is now in concert with global manipulation of markets.
More sublime this way.

The major brokerages knew what they were going to do.
And they spread the word to their OS affiliates.
Buy before the act - don't miss out.
Support us and we'll pull the strings.

Who can play this market with belief?
That natural forces are in play.

As to those who bemoan golds demise
Think again as to what you are playing with.

These markets are being played
To the tune of the piper
With the biggest pockets.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:20 - ID#342315)
Erle re Crashing market
Good thinking. If you get an answer, I would appreciate hearing about it. in case I miss the post. Thanx, Charlie

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:21 - ID#210127)

you feel the same way about silver???


(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:25 - ID#210114)
Solidarity forever!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:26 - ID#242325)
Glenn: No problem here with your ultra bearish post. But I and many others would be interested to know why you are so certain that POG is going much lower. A forecast without a rationale is of little use to anybody.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:27 - ID#27341)
HedgeHog-OZ$,be carefull,johnny maybe tugging the strings?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:31 - ID#27341)
THAT IS I,and will always,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:31 - ID#307271)
Loved that shot of my F-15 Eagle bird in your Link. Do ya think the yanks would actually use this antiquated piece of 60's engineering to dominate the skies of Macedonia?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:33 - ID#256326)
The Old Sentiment-o-Meter
Gawd I luv extremes of sentiment, almost anywhere, but ALWAYS at Kitco! Thanks muchly guys and dolls. Bought 'em spoos and goldies today. Cheers!
( Long wave BS follows in academic mode maana. )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:35 - ID#255217)
Inflation or depression?
It's clear from the posts on this site that not everyone is agreed as to whether we are heading into a recession ( depression? ) or are about to be lauched into an inflationary binge brought on by a torrent of new paper.

I don't believe we can have it both ways at the same time, although farfel apparently thinks we might experience the worst of both worlds simultaneously. I don't claim to be an astute economic theorist, but it has always seemed to me that before the gummint would allow a real recession to get under way, with the possibility that it might become a full-blown depression, they ( the gummint ) would REALLY pull the stops and try to INFLATE their way out of a worsening jam.

After all, Volker and his cigar DID seem to be successful in taming a potentially lethal inflationary threat in the early eighties. But I think it was a near thing and credit and paper proliferation are MUCH worse today than back then. Having said that, I STILL think gummint will opt for an inflationary flood rather than the alternative.

History DOES repeat itself, but never exactly, or in the same way. I think we all expect surprises in the next few years; I know I do. I would still rather take my chances WITH gold than face whatever is coming without it. I know a lot of goldbugs out there are hurting and it's not funny . I am doing a little hurting, myself. Sometimes my dark side surfaces and I find perhaps a little solice in black humor with respect to the PM's, but I am not insensitive to the pain others must be experiencing. All I can do is wait a little longer and hope that my faith in gold ( and silver ) has not been misplaced. My guess is that a lot of goldbugs out there are doing the same thing.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:36 - ID#307271)
Ladies knitting group
BTBye, have you heard that Bart is thinking of changing the name of this illustrious site to The Kitco Ladies Knitting Forum. Logo: "Even little old ladies have humongous egos to feed." 'Come on down, knit with the Kitco Grannies.'

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:36 - ID#30116)
Be you a trader or investor, the one thing you must always do is acknowledge that the market is always 'right'. If you choose to fight the market, be damn sure that you have 'good' information, or be prepared to looooooose your money. That's just the way it is.

Everyone who enters the financial markets learns this lesson sooner or later. The only difference between us, is the price we pay for our 'education'. BTW, ALL of us have paid this tution.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:42 - ID#256326)
You really know how to hurt a feller. I'm starting to feel bad 'cause I accepted Farfel's apologies. Maybe we could get the Idiot back?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:42 - ID#45173)
xanadu: I've seen this survey and while I think they're on the right track
their survey methodology shows they are trying to make a point, rather than letting the facts make a point. For example, let's say you wanted to find out what a group believes will be the outcome of a war between China and Japan in the next 20 years.

To find this out you simply give them the following three choices:

1 ) Light casualties on both sides
2 ) Widespread destruction

You are likely to find that most take a moderate position. This certainly gives your survey a reasoned appearance. What you fail to find out is that 90% of those surveyed do not believe there will be any military conflict between China and Japan. What you find instead is what they think might happen IF such a conflict were to take place.

Add to that the fact that I don't know who they are asking. Are the folks surveyed really qualified to say? Did the selection method in some way select for those disposed toward a negative assessment?

I'd like the Y2K Survey more if it asked open-ended questions of documented, well-qualified groups -- IT managers, project managers and application programmers. That will yield highly useful info that I'd have a lot of confidence in.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:43 - ID#342376)
More from the Veneroso camp....
Our information is that it was the Swiss National Bank who bought gold for a customer. Of interest is that the SNB hit the golden-eagle web-site out of nowhere about 10 days ago over 20 times in two days. Then all this news comes out.
We have heard for some time the Japanese have been buying gold but could not get a handle on this information until recently. Smoke is coming out of everywhere. First we heard ( from our sources ) of the Swiss buying in London. Then we heard from a South African source that an Asian government was buying ( 400 tonnes ) and the source hinted strongly it was Japanese. Today, we hear from a third source that our info was correct about Asian central bank buying, but would not name the country or tonnage. The reason given for the gold buying was the country wanted to bolster the currency with gold because they saw what has happened to the Canadian and Australian currencies as a result of their gold dumpings.
And finally out of nowhere, the Japanese recently bombarded the golden-eagle site.
If this is true, the Japanese should want to announce this some time after they are done buying. This will alert our Treasury people that they are now considering reserves other than dollars. If this is so, and an Asian backlash develops against the imperialists Americans,other Asian countries could follow suit and also buy gold for the same reasons. An actual buy and the potential of future buying, would be quite something and could give the gold market and enormous psychological lift.
Bill Murphy

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:45 - ID#26467)
12 year
FWIW In 1986 June-July months gold made an important low 336 subsequently
rose to 446 in October .Platinum was even more impressive from 395
to 680.Gold/Plat spread from 60 to 240.I believe we are there now.Crude oil rose from 10.80 to 16.40 in a matter of 4 weeks from July to August.After the Dow tumbled in the July month it
made an impressive rally in August to make an all time high and to loose
it all and some more in September.
Wheat travelled from the first week of July 2.40 to November 2.95.
I thought some of you might be interested in this 12 year phenomena.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:47 - ID#30116)
OLD GOLD -- COME ON! Why is Glenn BEARISH???

Asian economies are in a tailspin. The price of gold is rising in their local currency terms, but they can't afford it or, are probably selling what they have to take profit/raise 'cash' ( for food maybe? ) .

Gold is priced in DOLLARS, currently the worlds STRONGEST currency and getting stronger ( for whatever reason that you care to ascribe to this phenom ) . Untill the 'Buck' 'breaks', I don't think gold will do that much ( except go down ) .

One possible hope for mining share holders would be take-overs in a mining industry consolidation.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:49 - ID#284255)
EJ - Yardini
You have to read between the lines
With all the propaganda being put out by the guys
Making big bucks off Y2k.

They might have a speil to sing
But there is some truth behind their words of wisdom.

I see it as no different from anyone selling anything.
Same as the M/F propaganda.

I tend to give Yardini and comments from the Gov't
More credence than North or other radicals.

Where else do we look for information?
But from the informed.

The rate of exposure is being increased.
We will see more and more hype.
More and more information is being released daily.

I guess all we can do is filter all this to the best of our abililty
To throw out the hype and repetition.
And collate the facts.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:50 - ID#307271)
I love our Farfel guy e-r-r-r Peck's Bad boy. But please! Even Narcissus got tired of the mirror. Pride! It's not just a group of lions anymore. Get off it!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:52 - ID#342315)
Panda re tuition

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:54 - ID#242325)
Panda: The dollar is indeed the key. But it has already risen a lot and a huge backlash against dollar imperialism is developing. To assume that it can only go higher could be a risky bet.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:54 - ID#27341)
Zeke,thought it was going to be, words not worth reading.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:56 - ID#373403)
M3 money supply
Year M3 ( $bil ) M3 ( $bil increase )
1980.12 1992.2 $185.6
1981.12 2240.9 $248.7
1982.12 2442.3 $201.4
1983.12 2684.9 $242.6
1984.12 2979.8 $294.9
1985.12 3198.4 $218.6
1986.12 3486.4 $288.0
1987.12 3672.7 $186.3
1988.12 3913.1 $240.4
1989.12 4066.3 $153.2
1990.12 4126.8 $ 60.5
1991.12 4182.1 $ 55.3
1992.12 4193.5 $ 11.4
1993.12 4258.9 $ 65.4
1994.12 4333.6 $ 74.7
1995.12 4595.6 $262.0
1996.12 4935.5 $339.9
1997.12 5383.7 $448.2

1998.01 5432.1 $471.0
1998.02 5472.2 $474.4
1998.03 5536.3 $504.3
1998.04 5583.3 $508.0
1998.05 5608.2 $521.7

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:57 - ID#307271)
I'm getting old, not as mentally quick as in the old days. What?

(Fri Jun 12 1998 21:58 - ID#342376)
You gotta love it....
The ruling elite in Japan browsing on the net to the Golden Eagle web site, reading the articles by Kutyn for a solution out of the mess. Stranger things have happened......enough of me for tonight, I've wasted far too much bandwidth for all the incredible talent here.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:04 - ID#30116)
I won't belabor the point. I paid a large 'tuition' bill last year in the metals. I still have a 'class' to take, but I think I will ignore it for now. Pyrrhic victories and such

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:04 - ID#284255)
I too thought that survey was good.
But I wonder about the person who compiled the data.

I know I can take any report and
Pluck the pertinent facts that I want exposed.
And arrange them to read how I want.

I think you have to be sceptical but read between the lines.

I like to think that any report has 10% of truth in it.
And it is up to me to discern the important 10%.
It doesn't matter whether or not the other 90% is true.
The 10% should hold the relevent information.
It's just that you have to find the 10%
Hidden amongst all the speil.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:06 - ID#30116)
When the change comes, that will be the time to move. Not before.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:07 - ID#27341)
think about it!

Goldilocks and the three BEARS
(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:09 - ID#432125)
This is an interesting article, it actually ties together some of "ANOTHER'S" inside facts. Also talks about that by Dec, 1999, banks will be selling dollars ( this will cause inflation ) to buy EUROs in order to purchase middle-east oil ( could easily go to $39/barrel, gold will go to $800/oz ) .

This article is a must read for gold/oil/ and EURO bugs.

I personally thought is was full of compassion and had a real spunky ending, I give it two thumbs up.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:10 - ID#284255)

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:11 - ID#30116)
The nature of the beast....
The precious metals markets have been characterized by sharp and short rallies. Typically, they may last for a few days to several weeks. Like a meteor shower, when they occur, it is spectacular. A rally that last longer can only be caused a BIG problem in the global currency system.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:11 - ID#284255)
PandaI know I have pai
I know I have paid my dues.

Paid in full yet the cost just keeps getting higher.

I watched what was going on yesterday in the Asian markets - esp the OZ market.
I could not understand what and why.

The only answer was that someone had tipped them to what was about to happen.
And then it happened.

Confirmation of the act.

This opens my eyes even further.
The PPT is now opperating at a global level.

By PPT I think you have to include the major brokerege houses with the PPT.
They do not want to lose this money making game.

I think the indices should retrace and then fail again.
The next few days are of extreme importance.
Make it or break it.
And this goes for the globe not just the US.

If it fails then we are due for a decent break downwards.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:12 - ID#284255)
Fornigate - As Told By Dr. Seuss
I'm here to ask
As soon you'll see
Did you grope
Miss Lewinsky?
Did you grope her
In your house?
Did you grope
Beneath her blouse?
I did not do that
Here nor there
I did not do that
I did not do that
Near or far
I did not do that
Did you smile?
Did you flirt?
Did you peek
Beneath her skirt?
And did you tell
The girl to lie
When called upon
to testify?
I do not like you
I think that you
Have gone too far
I will not answer
Any more
Perhaps I will go
Start a war!
The public's easy
To distract
When bombs are falling
On Iraq!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:16 - ID#284255)
Internet Addiction - esp for us Kitcoites

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:18 - ID#284255)
A god laugh for us downtrodden goldbugs
A Peek In Monica Lewinsky's Diary
Entry 1
Dear Diary,
I'm so excited! Just got a job as an intern at the White House and I don't
know a thing about medicine. Don't even know what my duties are yet, but
I hope it's a "hands on" position.
Entry 2
Dear Diary,
You won't believe this! I snuck into the Oval Office when no one was
looking. But then I dropped one of my contacts. So, I got down on my
hands and knees and was looking for it when - guess what - the President
walked in! He said, "You must be the new intern." That man is psychic! I
hope he likes me.
Entry 3
Dear Diary,
I think the President likes me. Today he dropped his contacts on the rug
and asked me to find them.
Entry 4
Dear Diary,
He really likes me.
Entry 5
Dear Diary,
I have been sent to the stupid Pentagon to work. It is such a drag. Like
they're going to put me in charge of heat-seeking missiles or something.
But I still talk to my Bubba-cakes on the phone. He calls me "1-900
Monica." ( That means he thinks I'm one in nine hundred. That's pretty
special. )
Entry 6
Dear Diary,
I met a really nice girl today. Her name is Linda. She's really cool,
except for that clown hair. Has she ever heard the word "conditioner?"
She looks like Mrs. Ronald McDonald.
Entry 7
Dear Diary,
I think Linda is hard of hearing. She keeps asking me to speak louder
whenever we go out for a quiet dinner.
Entry 8
Dear Diary,
Oh-oh. The bad news: I've been subpoenaed. The good news is that Vernon
Jordan is my new best friend. I'm going job hunting with him tomorrow.
Entry 9
Dear Diary,
I had to give an affidavit in that stupid Paula Jones' case. What is she
talking about? There are no distinguishing marks. And, by the way, I am
way cuter than her. She looks like David Brenner in drag.
Entry 10
Dear Diary,
I've had it. I'm never going to be an intern again. I'm going back to
Hollywood where they pay you for that kind of work.
Entry 11
Dear Diary,
Finally got home to L.A. and hugged Daddy so hard I thought I would pop.
It's the first time in six months I called a man "daddy" that I was
actually related to.

Entry 12
Dear Diary,
It is so totally fabulous being back in Brentwood where they really
understand me. O.J. stopped by - he said not to worry because, "If there's
no spot on the dress, it's anybody's guess."
Entry 13
Dear Diary,
All my girlfriends are so jealous of all the attention I'm getting from
Kenneth Starr. I think they have subpoena envy. And Linda Tripp. I hate
her. I'm thinking of selling a Linda Doll. You wind it up and it stabs a
Barbie doll in the back.
Entry 14
Dear Diary,
Got to remember to tell Bubba-cakes my totally doable solution to this
whole wacky Iraqi crisis. He forgets that I worked at the Pentagon. Just
have Vernon Jordan get Saddam Whathisname a job at Revlon. ( God, it's a
no-brainer! )
Entry 15
Dear Diary,
They keep asking me if I had sexual relations with the President. I mean,
give me a break. That is so crazy. I mean, just because every day, when
I worked at the White House, his name was at the top of my "To Do" list.
Entry 16
Dear Diary,
Sometimes I wish some of the other girls who were in my position would
stand up and be counted. But they might hit their heads on the President's
desk if they did.
Entry 17
Dear Diary,
They keep talking about immunity - like I caught something from the
President or something. The truth is, there was always a Secret Service
man outside the Oval Office protecting us. Now, that's what I call safe
Entry 18
Dear Diary,
Omigod. Mom and I are both going to the grand jury. What is that about
anyway? Sounds like some big hotel. Anyway, I guess I shouldn't have told
mom about taking dictation in the Oval Office. Me and my big mouth!
Entry 19
Dear Diary,
I'm not really worried. I've got offers to do some really cool movies that
are going straight to video and starring me! The Full Monica, a sequel to
"In And Out", "A Pack-O-Lips Now", "Wag the Willy" and my most favorite:
"Good Bill Humping". I hope Spielberg will direct.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:19 - ID#30116)
I think the problem with this 'gold' stuff, is that we tend to think of gold derivatives ( stocks, options on stocks/indexes, futures and options on futures ) as 'gold'. It isn't! But damn! You tend to get attached to it in the same way.

It's a funny thing though, I never met a tech stock that I couldn't go long or short on at the stroke of a key on my computer, but the PMs.... :- (

Live and learn... Boy, did I learn...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:21 - ID#27341)
you can bet thier is a coordinated attempt to hold this mess together.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:27 - ID#256326)
Jeez, I knew it ( M3 ) was rocketing since 1992 ( that's when eurodollar rates bottomed too ) but this is totally amazing!!!!!!!! Is it true or just internet reporting? Kinda reminds me of tales of full employment thinking in 1946 when folks feared a deflationary spiral. That was the bottom, 1946-49.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:28 - ID#30116)
I think a more appropriate line of reasoning would be that the PPT is involved in maintaining an 'orderly' market. No one wants a two thousand point swing in one day on the Dow. Could the PPT stop a real run? :- ) ) No way.:- ) )

So, do the next best thing, an ounce of prevention at judicious moments...

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:31 - ID#307271)
Thanks for spelling Pyhrric victory properly. King Pyrrhus of Epirus salutes you.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:38 - ID#263254)
Open-Loop; IRS and their legal right to taxation
I read information on the subject of legal taxation many months ago posted on a - It was very intriguing. It concerned an individual who found himself researching information on IRS powers due to the mishaps his girlfriend had fallen into. What he found was explosive. In basic form, his research uncovered the fact that the IRS does not have the right to collect tax in the US, as no statute was signed into place. However, there is a statute on record allowing the IRS to collect tax on US citizens residing in the Virgin Islands. The IRS and it's powers are "perceived" powers only and, unfortunately in most cases, upheld in a court of law without a true legal leg to stand on. Harold began a letter campaign to congressmen, senators, the President and other officials. Harold began a letter campaign addressing the issue and requesting to be directed to specific statutes that allow the IRS to tax the American public. Harold stated that he got no response from any parties. His letters went unanswered, after several attempts for response. Again, I am going on memory, and with the previous listed website, there is nothing that confirms this. Harold's homepage has become a commercial dead-end. However there is light at the end of the tunnel. Look into this website for leads to fight your battle. I believe you are on the right side, and can prove it if you are willing to invest the time to investigate. Good luck.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:43 - ID#256326)
Yep, let's ban pride, Pyrrhically Phyreaking.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:44 - ID#27341)
my apologies,call it an ignorant attempt to clear the air,
dumb here

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:45 - ID#227238)
Dave in CO: Sorry for the delayed response to your earlier - "kick 'em when they're down" - thingy .... but, my comments are not intended in that vein at all. Rather, they reflect my point of view only. .... That's what we're here for; isn't it?

I have been a cheerleader for PM's for a very long time, 'n I gotta tell ya, it don't work, fer sour apples.

Markets will move without regard for your wishes or mine. Our reaction to them is all that SHOULD BE important. Not someone else's opinion.

If it be your judgement that cheering for the home team is more important than saving yer ass, that's your choice to make but you should have the maturity and good grace to not allow it to color your estimation of the direction of others.

The foregoing is presented without rancor or ill will and with the expressed wish that it is received similarly. It's merely one guy's opinion.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:46 - ID#34857)
@ Farfel and LGB
Wow, guys, that was a hell of a debate!

Now, get your rest;

It's well deserved;

And rest assured, Kitco has been served.

HenryD ( Goldaholic )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:48 - ID#284255)
Panda - downunder
That's my take on it too.

They must under all circumstances make the descent orderly.
This is logical, yes?

At all costs they must not spook the public.
But won't that happen sooner or later?
For the music buffs
Lots of full length Midi files
Rumour OZ$ soon to leg it down to 57c

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:50 - ID#231337)
Right on......crazytimes (More from the Veneroso camp....)
There is more going on in this vein than we know.... it's like this.. When your child was doing something in the next room that they knew you would not approve of, all went quiet!! Thats when you, the smart parent, knows and takes a look!

There is an erie feeling that something like that is going on now. Clinton decides at the same time, all is OK and says, 'lets take the short route to China'.

The fireworks are about to begin, and the next 8 - 12 months will go down in history.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:50 - ID#307271)
Lovable Fringe People
In the old days I operated by a simple maxim: "When The Going Gets Weird, The Weird Turn Pro". I'm resisting, but I'm about to take the Elixir.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:54 - ID#27341)
yep,thats it, they cannot aford to let it go,you can now pick many closes on the day, exa EJ ,and i told my wife the dow would close up today!but they will loose it eventually.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:54 - ID#78136)
I was in Ontario this week and their Auditor General is issuing
a special report on the y2k problem for the provincial gov't.
No details other than it should be a top priority. If anyone
sees the report in the next week, would appreciate a URL.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:54 - ID#307271)
Thanks du. Accepted, and likewise. zeke

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:55 - ID#57232)
US markets closed up!
sharefin: I must admit I expected the US markets to go up steadily today, given my own analysis. Didn't go up until the end of the day. I don't know if the PPT team was at work, but you wonder that they might have been in China this time. Didn't the Chinese Yuan show a recovery?

FV et al seems pretty sure about gold buying by Japanese and Swiss entities. But -- the gold shorts dominated the markets. I placed a small bet that June 14 would be a short-term turning point for gold, partially because that is near a full moon, and partially because a number of market predictors have suggested that this might be a short-term turning point.

I did this for another reason: Either gold will turn up from here, or it will have to reach new lows very soon. I don't believe that gold can go much lower without serious repercussions. Namely a stronger US dollar. Hence I think $280 is the approximate gold bottom.

If gold goes below $280oz US, that would probably start a new mqajor round of devaluations somewhere in the world, and a depression might not be far away. Worldwide depression is still a very likely reality, even if gold starts to go up in US dollars.

Have you watched South America? Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela seem to be in free fall. Incidentally, I am making a profit in my Mexican put 'funny money' , but I bought 'reduced value' options rather than the regular ones. I think that was a mistake as the regular index puts and calls seem to be far more sensitive to the market behavior than my RV ones. But -- if money is involved, the lesson learned is remembered longer.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 22:56 - ID#256326)
When in doubt, an elixir is always expedient. Becoming Phrogue or Pyrrhic victory are likely outcomes. Ad astra per aspera!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:00 - ID#45173)
themissinglink: thx for your most informative post on M3
1998 M3 increases are... just NUTTY! I wish Gollum were here to help put it in perspective for us. He's been hiding ever since he messed around in the back room earlier today and accidentally tripped that program trading switch to send the DOW back up where it started.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:03 - ID#402148)
Could we already be at the low on those commodities you list. My thinking is that on a book to share price value, most natural resource stocks are as cheap already as the down spike in July of 1986, and cheaper than they were at the bottom in the crash of 1987.



(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:04 - ID#57232)
How about this?
Orca: What if BC claims asylum in China? That would do it. Seems he has been supporting them more than us recently anyway, and perhaps he is afraid of what Kenneth Starr has stashed away. Bet BC got more money from China than from the US. Looks like Henry Kissenger did too.

On a more serious note, I don't like the doings in Kosovo. Perhaps that is where some of our military are going -- to join NATO in a bombing run of some kind. The Serbs have not given up on their ethnic cleansing craziness. Haven't heard anything recently about Turkey and Cypress. Perhaps it will be military conflict that will wake gold up.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:07 - ID#256326)
I think you are on to a big story. Things are so bad in DC that klintone has to go to China to be debriefed. ( Not referring to his underwear. )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:14 - ID#284255)
Much is going on underneath the surface at the moment.
Yesterdays actions were contrived.

Unusual to say the least.
The reversal rally's in Asia and OZ
Europes non confirmation of this reversal - ( Why didn't they do the same if the word was out? )
US's confirmation that the word was released.

It's all seems so contrived that I wonder at the power these houses wield???

Now we have China stepping in to defend the Yuan.
Japan confirming that they are in a recession. Yen to 144.

What's around the corner?
How are these houses going to play this game?
They are big and their actions are momentuous.

There are many anomalies starting to show their heads.
A very rocky road in front of us I feel.

We must await the next move
It's make it or break it where the US markets go now.
Be it that we now have a new upleg
The turning point of this new leg is hypercritical
If it fails off the broken pennant resistance line - watch out.

I would expect a retracement and then failure.
Then we have a confirmed failure and after that it's all downhill
Fast or slow it doesn't matter.

This chart is showing the state of Ping II:

Master list of charts

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:17 - ID#307271)
Au Lover
Thanks, but as you know, the internal and eternal stars I seek. Thus,
ad Phrynic victory aspero.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:20 - ID#162241)
JTF.... More on How about this
The last time things got warm around the Oval office ( oops.. bedroom, or is it Oval Office,... it's all really very confusing ) the Mid East came to the rescue. China looks like a good tactical alternative, and besides makes Clinton look like he knows something.. being a Rhodes Scholar and all that. ( Didn't Rhodes make some money from Gold and Land in Africa? )

Problem is, I think they ( Chinese ) are smarter!!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:21 - ID#57232)
Speaking of debreifing, here's the latest on MonicaLewinskyGate
aurophile: Just for you! Sure is hard to tell whether Kenneth Starr has enough for impeachment. Does he or doesn't he? Maybe only Monica L's hairdresser knows for sure. I think we had 'full disclosure' in Vanity Fair -- if those pix were really Monica in the buff. I think it was Vanity Fair -- whatever it was was literally sold out before it hit the newstands. Lastly we have one of BC's close associates linked to Vernon Jordan -- must have been debriefing ( or the opposite of debriefing -- Undibriefing? ) Monica.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:23 - ID#373403)
Jeez, I knew it ( M3 ) was rocketing since 1992 ( that's when eurodollar rates bottomed too ) but this is totally amazing!!!!!!!! Is it true or just internet reporting?

As the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis website as my witness ( and data provider ) this is true! I only did the simple math.

Check out this data in graph form.\m3ns

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:23 - ID#256326)
Advice sought
Anyone in the trade or active physicals investors: what are the current designer gold bars of choice? By which I mean standard bars which do not require asssay on sale: other than Comex warehouse receipts which are a special case. But for folks buying kilo bars or 100 oz, is it still Swiss Bank or Mocatta etc? This is for a friend who has no gold and wants to buy. ( Smart guy too for waiting. )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:30 - ID#256326)
There was a lot of chatter on another site about Ginsburg being the Mossad man in L.A. which I don't buy since they have to have thousands in "THE BASIN", but "in brief" Monica always seemed to me like a perfect setup in the old-timey spy wars which were such fun in the old days before trial lawyers ruled the world..................................

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:32 - ID#307271)
Gold Bars
Try this site:

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:33 - ID#57232)
The Chinese are masters at negotiation
orca: I know alot about the way Chinese think from some close associates. I have great respect for their negotiating skill, as well as their rich cultural heritage. Their ability to barter would put the average American to shame.

In their most recent dealings, the Communist Chinese figured out quickly that BC could be bought off, and would give them almost anything they wanted, after they greased the wheels. I do not blame them one bit -- it is we who should be blamed for permitting espionage to be a simple matter of a Democratic party donation. No moles necessary.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:33 - ID#290172)
Market Exchange Rates in RMB Yuan
Set By the People's Bank of China

Currency Unit Intermediate

US Dollar 100 827.97
Japanese Yen 100 6.3573
HK Dollar 100 106.92

Perhaps an interesting question is, "What is the logical point of convergence for the yen/yuan?"

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:39 - ID#401460)
Try 1958 - 1998

Flatline 1991


(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:43 - ID#256326)
Thanks. Good ole CS. Me gone, have a bon weekend, all!

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:46 - ID#31867)
IN MY COUNTRY! can now see the bones of my kidding..
sorry report...two miles...the Great STATE of TEXAS...I really want to be in the cell with them...NO MERCY...NONE...

dragged for two miles...horror...I am angered...back to the bark...the tree is losing...anger...

I am beside myself and I do not like what I see............

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:47 - ID#401460)

1958 - 1998
Click on last button - "Pressure, negative actual changes interest rates and employment"?????

I don't know what it means but sure is interesting!!!!!

I am going to try a few more.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:48 - ID#290172)
P E R C E P T I O N S...

Ensuring Appropriate and Stable Exchange Rates
A Report of the Policy Subcommittee of the Committee on International Finance

September 11, 1995


1.Although more than twenty years have passed since the adoption of the floating exchange rate system in 1973, contrary to earlier expectations, the system has not led to a quick correction of current account imbalances. Instead the system has brought on drastic swings in exchange rates and created wide gaps between actual and appropriate rates, adversely affecting the national economies of many nations as well as their business activities. ( See Note 1 )

2.Since the beginning of 1995, THE VALUE OF THE YEN SURGED GREATLY AGAINST THE US DOLLAR AND IN APRIL REACHED THE UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF LESS THAN 80 YEN TO ONE DOLLAR. IN RESPONSE, FOLLOWING THE BANK OF JAPAN'S GUIDING MONEY MARKET RATE BELOW EFFECTIVE RATES ON JULY 7TH, ON AUGUST 2ND THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS INCENTIVE PACKAGE, "MEASURES TO PROMOTE OVERSEAS INVESTMENTS AND LOANS AIMING FOR CORRECTION OF THE YEN APPRECIATION", and working with the US and Germany, launched a coordinated intervention effort in the exchange markets. Along with other forces, these efforts have gradually slowed the yen's appreciation, although it is still over-valued in relation to Japan's current economic capacity. The overly strong yen, coupled with drastic swings in exchange rates, have seriously handicapped business activities, thwarting spontaneous economic recovery and creating the potential for a "hollowing out" of Japan's industrial and technological infrastructure, which could lead to serious job-loss. Japan must take the necessary measures to ensure that the yen is staying at appropriate level and that exchange rates around the world be stabilized.

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:48 - ID#286230)
JAZZ win

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:55 - ID#335184)
Themissinglink - Query ? Also SOS re Crystallex down 57% to $1.08
Are you saying that M3 grew substantially more in the month of January than the entire year of 1997 ?
In Barron's this week,
there was a very informative interview with a brilliant young hedge fund bear who pointed out that M3 growth was approaching near record levels & that this was in fact a contra indicator as this rate could not be sustained & therefor, the market which has not discounted for this, was in for a rude negative shock.
Other savy observors have noted that the FED must increase USD supply to meet the USD demand of foreigners fleeing their currencies so the USD will not continue to rise creating absurd trade imbalances & further accellerating deflation. Remember, the FED can't increase M3 unless some one is borrowing. Could someone be borrowing on the purchase of & repledge of US securities ?
We are already in for the mother of all trade imbalances for at least the next 12 to 18 months.

Does any one have any news on T.KRY ( Crystallex ) !Western Copper down .45 cents to $4.35.
Many Canadian Jr.s took it on the chin today with 8% & 12% one day
losses !
The TSE must have moved to Soul. It's sinking out of sight !



(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:55 - ID#153102)
@Why The Dollar Is Strong
"The truth of the matter is that Robert Rubin IS more powerful than
the President! When you search for the Oath of Office for the 'Secretary
of Treasury' you will NOT find one. What you will find is Rubin's
APPOINTMENT as the alien, corporate 'Governor' of 'The Fund'
and 'The Bank,' and other INTERNATIONAL organizations for a
period of five years. The de jure Office of the Secretary of Treasury
was formerly a cabinet level position, but after the creation of the
INDEPENDENT TREASURY in 1920-21, the funds were
COMMINGLED and the Treasury of the United States of America

With the creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, it set up the
mechanism to economically overthrow the de jure monetary system and replace it with paper on a 'float'. Section 16 of the Federal Reserve Act, which is codified at 12 USC 411, declares that 'Federal Reserve Notes' are 'obligations of the United States.' The 'full faith and credit' of the United States was thereby hypothecated and re-hypothecated to the lending institutions for the issuance and emission of bills of credit as legal tender. The paper circulation and transactions accounts could then be inflated by 60% and the purchasing power depreciated and reduced by an equivalent amount.

By becoming a member in the IMF, the United States re-hypothecated its
obligations and the full faith and credit to the International Organization, under pretense of the Gold Reserve Act and the Articles of Agreement of the IMF. Of course, when a government becomes a voting share stockholder in any corporation, it RELINQUISHES its SOVEREIGN CHARACTER and takes on the character of the corporation. ( See: Bank of the United States vs. Planters Bank of Georgia, 6 L.Ed 244 ) . As of 1976, the United States had 19.96% of the voting share stock in the IMF, the largest of any other Nation-State. [As of 1996, the U.S. voting share was 17.78%, more than three times higher than the next two highest countries - Germany and Japan, at 5.54% each. TiM Ed.].

After the passage of Public Law 90-269, on March 18, 1968, the
United States declared it no longer guaranteed the uniform value of the
coins and currency of the United States. This act REMOVED the remaining
reserve requirements on circulating notes and obligations. Approximately
$1.3 BILLION in gold was 'pledged' against 'gold certificates' and held as reserves against the Federal Reserve's circulating notes and obligations at this time.

Under this Act, the gold certificates were WITHDRAWN and RETIRED, the
gold then considered as 'free gold' was paid out to foreign interests at $35 per ounce at a time when the world price of gold was nearly $120 per
ounce. The monetary system of gold was then replaced by a mechanism of
'Special Drawing Rights' ( SDR's ) within the framework of the IMF.

Now here is the rub: ( 1 ) The operations of the Exchange Stabilization
Fund...and now the SDR's...are under the 'exclusive control of the
Secretary of Treasury' and 'are NOT REVIEWABLE by any other
officer of the United States'; ( 2 ) anything in the Exchange Stabilization
Fund remains in the Fund, for the use of the Fund; ( 3 ) the new program
is subject to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in accordance with
Section 3 of the SDR Act of 1968; and the Secretary of Treasury is the
'Governor' of the IMF, ( 4 ) and is NOT an officer of the United States.

The Secretary ( Governor-IMF ) issues an international letter of credit called a 'Special Drawing Rights certificate' to the Federal Reserve banks 'in such form and in such determination as HE may determine'. The SDR is then deposited in the Federal Reserve banks, which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the 'collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes'.

The term 'dollar' was thereafter valued in direct and inseparable
proportion to Special Drawing Rights, NOT TO 'DOLLARS,' gold
and silver Coin. The 'dollar' became mere 'book entries in special
accounts of the International Monetary Fund.' ( See: Senate Report 1164 ) .

Needless to say, the Constitution for the United States of America
expressly provided for 'gold and silver coin'. These same metals have an
intrinsic value because of their natural scarcity, and the expenditures
necessary to extract, mill and refine them. The duty and obligations to
maintain the purity of such a dual metallic monetary standard were
determined by the Supreme Court in a case entitled, U.S. vs. Marigold, 13
L.Ed. 257, at pages 260-261. In short, Congress is 'accordingly authorized and BOUND IN DUTY to prevent its debasement and expulsion, and the destruction of the general confidence and convenience, by the influx and substitution of a spurious coin in lieu of the constitutional currency.'

But par-value requirements and the uniform value of the coins and currency of the United States were eliminated, and with the enactment of Public Law 95-147 on Oct. 28, 1977, this Act placed ALL FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS - meaning your local bank and credit union - under the
DIRECT CONTROL AND SUPERVISION of the alien, corporate, 'Governor
of The Fund' and 'The Bank'.

There is no longer any obligation to stabilize the exchange value of the 'dollar'. Congress no longer has any control or authority over the de facto monetary system. It has ALL been transferred to the IMF and WORLD BANK via the 'Governor' of the same.

Robert Rubin, who is also called the 'Secretary of Treasury' - a former cabinet level position that exists ONLY under PRETENSE OF NAME. The United States exists only as the ALTER-EGO of the IMF and WORLD BANK under the United Nations. Therefore, ALL so-called 'FEDERAL' funding to the several States the Union, indestructible under the Constitution for the United States of America, is in fact and law originating NOT from the 'NATIONAL/FEDERAL GOVERNMENT,' but through and from AGENTS OF FOREIGN PRINCIPALS - International Organizations - that have nothing to do at all with the United States of America.

There is no mathematical solution to this problem. The solution does, however, lie in removing this Nation from the Articles of Agreement of The Fund and The Bank. But since Congress are mere willing agents of
their foreign principals, the likelihood of this happening is mote.
These are just some of the sordid details of this story. It is long and
very complex. As they say, tyranny is always cloaked in complexities."

John Prukop, Legal Researcher
Citizens for a Constitutional Washington
Washington ( state )

(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:57 - ID#258429)
I have been one of the "lurkers" since January, and now must post. I am being drawn to the goldbug mentality, mainly by the collective intelligence of this group. But it is hard to ignore what I consider to be the prejudice involved with otherwise rational arguments.
While you all say, "so what", two items require that I write. One is the complete nonsense surrounding the Y2K. The other is treatment given to farfel. Please remember the gracious statement you agreed to when you were given the ability to post. We will leave farfel to my next post. Regarding Y2K:
I have been a computer programmer for more than 29 years. Some of you may be old enough to remember the warning give by Eisenhower concerning the "Military Industrial Complex" and the associated control of the minds and money of the USA and indeed the world. The current Y2K mania approaches this type of collusion, if not in dollars, then certainly in diversion.
Kitcoites, who pretend to be able to smell out conspiring people, will bury heads, hoping Y2K will somehow cause gold to perform. Don't you see? We programmers smelled a bonanza and are cashing in on it. We know that the real, useful programming required will be placed on the post Y2K pipeline. In the meantime we will profit. We clean up with Y2K fear money, then we clean up with productive software. Think for a moment. If the world doesn't come to an end in 2000, the we programmers have saved it. If it does, then you didn't listen to our warnings. Don't you see? While I am not personally involved, I know many who are. I will speak of farfel later. I will post more Y2K details if there is interest.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:57 - ID#258429)
I have been one of the "lurkers" since January, and now must post. I am being drawn to the goldbug mentality, mainly by the collective intelligence of this group. But it is hard to ignore what I consider to be the prejudice involved with otherwise rational arguments.
While you all say, "so what", two items require that I write. One is the complete nonsense surrounding the Y2K. The other is treatment given to farfel. Please remember the gracious statement you agreed to when you were given the ability to post. We will leave farfel to my next post. Regarding Y2K:
I have been a computer programmer for more than 29 years. Some of you may be old enough to remember the warning give by Eisenhower concerning the "Military Industrial Complex" and the associated control of the minds and money of the USA and indeed the world. The current Y2K mania approaches this type of collusion, if not in dollars, then certainly in diversion.
Kitcoites, who pretend to be able to smell out conspiring people, will bury heads, hoping Y2K will somehow cause gold to perform. Don't you see? We programmers smelled a bonanza and are cashing in on it. We know that the real, useful programming required will be placed on the post Y2K pipeline. In the meantime we will profit. We clean up with Y2K fear money, then we clean up with productive software. Think for a moment. If the world doesn't come to an end in 2000, the we programmers have saved it. If it does, then you didn't listen to our warnings. Don't you see? While I am not personally involved, I know many who are. I will speak of farfel later. I will post more Y2K details if there is interest.


(Fri Jun 12 1998 23:59 - ID#286230)
KRY News