Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:07 - ID#250121)
BigOtis - aurophile -
A fine first post. Welcome to kitco. Your contrariness is appreciate.

The Johnson Matthey gold bars are especially liquid as there are so many JM offices around the world. The bars range for 1 0z ugly slabs to 400oz dazzling beauties.

from my golden proverbs collection; That is gold that is worth gold which we may anywhere exchange for gold.

Where gold speaks, every tongue is silent.

We must not look for a golden life in an iron age.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:08 - ID#253153)
Conversation with large fund manager
I had a very interesting conversation with a manager of a very large equity fund in the US ( old friend of mine ) . He thinks the financial crisis had begun and will continue until the beginning of Aug 98. He expect the Dow to decline to approximately 6200 before rallying. He also said " the dollar will be very strong until Aug 98 ( against foreign currencies ) and then begin to decline" . He thinks gold has very little downside potential ( perhaps 275-280 ) and a tremendous upside move starting in Aug 98.
He said " the gold move will continue for several years " because we are in a deflationay spiral and the government will try to create liquidity by raising the POG. Ultimately he expect the DOW to decline to some very low level. Interesting , yes ?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:09 - ID#344308)

chopa-saki......a new nomer for many things....

chaos and flux appears to have struck at the heart of
the golden one----again---the sellers of gold...
they are quite bold....and their trade quite old....
the money changers in the temple....aye haggis..........
these will be cast out as well....aye.

just back from little rock.....after driving on their
free-ways......clinton can be understood.....aye.

got kitcoitis, from a long hiatus..
and wonder what was perused...

the names change, but the faces are the same...

what happened to the pm's?? damn....glad i had options...
time to buy calls...crude calls.....grain calls..
for me....we'll see.....

chopa-saki to know who you are...nettswhtbsilohthhfm..

cherokee!; ) ...dotssmfatimmb..surfing.with.the.silver.surfer....weeeeeeee

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:10 - ID#26467)
FWIW.The ball is in the Fed's court whether they are going
to respond to the deflationary spiral by cutting the discount
rate or not.My personal believe is that a cut is imminent.
If it happens than the Fed is officially going to try
to inflate its way out of this morass.
The ramification will be another financial runup inthe stock
market and this time the commodity markets will go for the ride as well.
Patience is now the key ,we are not far of in how it is going to
unfold.Markets will turn very swiftly re:Reagan/Baker.
Keep an eye on the spread between Platinum and Gold the tighter it gets the more we are going down in the price of gold.Good luck

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:11 - ID#290172)
Meine Ruh 'ist hin,
Mein Herz ist schwer.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:11 - ID#43352)
My wife had a heart attack so I have been over at the hospital. It looks
like she's going to be ok.

Here's a little info about money supply:
Money that can be spent immediately. Includes cash, checking accounts, and NOW accounts.
M1 + assets invested for the short term. These assets include money- market accounts and
money-market mutual funds.
M2 + big deposits. Big deposits include institutional money-market funds and agreements among

Many things go into why we are here where we are now, and how the Fed
manages ( or mismanages ) money supply is one of them. Here's a good URL
to study some of the happenings leading up to today:

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:12 - ID#190411)
I rather doubt that anyone will respond to the question of: how much does it take to manipulate a market? Who are the shorts? Why this big gangup at the turning point of classical monetary policy?
Back when Japan squandered twenty billion USD supporting the Yen, I suggested that for their money that they could turn the currency markets upside-down. They didn't, And I believe that Au is another commodity.
For the life of me, I cannot see an alternative to a stable international currency.
Canada, Oz, and NZ have pissed away the legacy of their ancestors. Their big problem is that they are not a reserve currency.
We in the US have gotten away with murder vis-a-vis our world reserve currency.
The Euro will not supplant the USD, unless they get serious about fiat inflation.
The missinglink, posted the facts.
Of course, DeGaulle, and Jacques Reuff had it right twenty-five years ago.
Hard money gentlemen, such as DeGaulle, were vilified in the US.
It continues.

That was surely a nifty bit of reporting about the MF's advertisements about our little commodities being a looooosing proposition.
Was this in concert with the shorts in Comex?

...Sorry for the meandering post

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:14 - ID#258429)
Repeat of previous post. Please bear with my posting inexperience

I have been one of the "lurkers" since January, and now must post. I am being drawn to the goldbug
mentality, mainly by the collective intelligence of this group. But it is hard to ignore what I consider to
be the prejudice involved with otherwise rational arguments.
While you all say, "so what", two items require that I write. One is the complete nonsense
surrounding the Y2K. The other is treatment given to farfel. Please remember the gracious
statement you agreed to when you were given the ability to post. We will leave farfel to my next post.
Regarding Y2K:
I have been a computer programmer for more than 29 years. Some of you may be old enough to
remember the parting warning given by Eisenhower concerning the "Military Industrial Complex" and the
associated control of the minds and money of the USA and indeed the world. The current Y2K
mania approaches this type of collusion, if not in dollars, then certainly in diversion.
Kitcoites, who pretend to be able to smell out conspiring people, will bury heads, hoping Y2K will
somehow cause gold to perform. Don't you see? We programmers smelled a bonanza and are
cashing in on it. We know that the real, useful programming required will be placed on the post Y2K
pipeline. In the meantime we will profit. We clean up with Y2K fear money, then we clean up with
productive software. Think for a moment. If the world doesn't come to an end in 2000, then we
programmers have saved it. If it does, then you didn't listen to our warnings. Don't you see? While I
am not personally involved, I know many who are. I will speak of farfel later. I will post more Y2K
details if there is interest.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:15 - ID#242303)
FWIW- a gold bug throws in the towel.

I have been on this forum since I started seriously accumulating PM and gold shares over two years ago.

I had a few shares in the past, but my broker convinced me that gold was undervalued. Consumption was outpacing supply and the imminent re-election of free-spending Clinton would push up inflation and so be the final push for the gold rally.

So I accumulated. I watched unhappily as we had a low inflation boom, and listened to my brokers excuses.

When the correction occurs -I was told then people will flock to gold.

The coorection started in the Far East destroying one of the main markets for gold consumption. Meanwhile commodities crashed removing any likehood of inflation. Free-spending Clinton has balanced the budget.

So where do we go from here:

IF there is a major correction+/- defaltion I really don't see how this will help Gold. There will less $ to spend on gold jewellery etc and the hedge against catastrophe has become governement ( esp. US bonds )

IF there is no correction the traditional consumers of gold- India, Far east, china are still hurting badly.

The ECB announcement was at best neutral.

If some investment money floods into Gold ( only a little ) , it would shoot up but what would it take to do that? Probably a cataclismic event. Eg Russia defaulting or going fascist or a derivatives debacle on a huge scale.

Yes that could cause major bank failures, crashing paper and the rise of gold prices. It could trigger a depression, or worse- but then it may not come to pass and even if it does my little pot of gold shares, PM aren't really going to bale me out that much. It will only be te physical gold in my possession that will be of any use- and that won't last very long. I be a few months better off than the next guy. Meanwhile I couldn't stand to see the red ink piling up and my savings disappearing.

Yesterday I sold out 80% of my positions , sustaining an outstanding 40% average loss on the shares and a 15% loss on the PM.

Good luck to the rest of you

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:16 - ID#43352)
I agree with you that the proper next move in rates will be to lower
them. I also think it will have to be done without pre announcement to
avoid a renewed rush into bonds an stocks to tkae advantage, as well
as at the right time ( after the economy and markets have stalled out
and are bginning to fall under their own accord ) . Too soon is bad and
too late perhaps even worse.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:16 - ID#401460)
M3 & 1973

IMHO, for what it may be worth, I and others have suggested that these times are similar to pre 1973. I suggest that if one studies these charts one will have further confirmation of the similarity in the money supply rate of change for the corresponding periods 1972 and now.

One could conclude that a liquidity or "Tight Money" crises is near, to be followed by another inflationary cycle in commodities.



(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:18 - ID#250121)
Greetinz, all.
I wish your wife a speedy recovery.

good to see your smoke signals again.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:19 - ID#210235)
@Dear auracious oratorious
please forward to me one of those 400 oz. beauties. I need to independently confirm your esteem.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:20 - ID#256326)
Rater, Oh Rater, Aurator
Jolly good Johnson & Mathey thru think and thin.

Is this the most bullish day you have ever seen for gold, or what? I was taught that cheaper is more better.

Incidentally re NA stocks, this was Carolan SC ( tm ) F4 from 4/22 and a direct hit on one of my proprietary cycle thingees. Couldn't have been more oversold.

Now that I have managed to get to Europe after a lapse of some years, perhaps the wanderlust drang nach unten will bring finally me closer to the antipodes and the blessed isles. Ach!

Hope all is well and the Lucas 'possum lights shine bright forever.

Morphoeus calls..............

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:23 - ID#284255)
High Rise
I see what you mean...

I will endeavour to make up a chart page like the others I have done.
Listing many of these indicators with their headings.

Here is one of a similiar nature:

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:25 - ID#210235)
@Dear wizened
I am sorry to read of your loss of value in your post. This market has been dreadful for short-term long speculators. I hope that this experience stimulates you to begin a serious study of investment principles, such as Graham's "The Intelligent Investor", so that you don't fall into the traps of the novice. I understand that 90% of all futures players give profits to the other 10%. The only escape is careful study, and discipline thereafter.

When I first learned commodities trading, about 14 years ago, I learned that the first two years losses should be considered "college tuition", and if it less than a good university before I caught on, I was lucky!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:27 - ID#190411)
I hope that your travels were pleasant.
What's your take on your commodities trades?
Do you share the pessimism that glenn and others have toward PM's?
If there is much at all regarding the weather patterns in the US, why are grains making such lows?
Nice to see you back occasionally. Choo Choo

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:29 - ID#307271)
Buy High--Sell Low? No pitbulls in your family. Many things about to unfold that are as yet unseen.."for that which is seen is passing away, but that which is unseen is eternal." Stretch your imagination, oh wizened one; imagine Eagles and Foxbats grazing their bellies over the sands of the Bekaa. Imagine all that sand turned to glass! Many things, many things...coming to a theatre near you. POG will go up. Many rarities will manifest. Hang in old chappie.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:31 - ID#153102)
@SDRer Freedom is More Precious Than the Metal
But metal on metal is the sound from Freedom's Forge.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:33 - ID#250121)
JM in Orkland has to send to JM in Stralia to get one of those wrist breaking 400 oz bars.. I have to settle for a photograph from JM's annual report.

berry berry bearish at kitco this spin, yes?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:34 - ID#210235)
Thanks. Danke. Merci beacoup. Gracias. How to tell you how clearly the charts you have shared have shown a mathematical model of the world of trading? Relationships have appeared, in their review over time, rather like the dimensional shadows in the magic eye pictures.

You are a kind and generous soul, sir. Namast. Promey.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:39 - ID#43352)
time to go
I am going to retire for the evening. Need to get up early, do some
stuff, and get over to the hospital. See ya.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:40 - ID#153102)
And the Armies of the Night
Cast destruction on them
From out of sight
And some flinched and fled
Only to face a greater plight.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:45 - ID#210235)
I've just stepped outside the daily kitco life and realized that we've seen, in Asia, an historic example of the precious metals doing their insurance thing. People have used their gold/silver insurance. as precious metal values skyrocketed next to plummeting currencies. Yet, rather than watch in awe as these investments performed as hoped, and wish the best for the lucky ones who had provided for their families ( and in S. Korea, their government ) , we've been bemoaning our own short-term diminution of the "paper values" of our gold/silver insurance investments.

Someday, we'll remember these days and be amazed at our own greed and shortsightedness.

Right now, I'm just glad that the metals did perform as we had expected they would, for the people who needed them the most. The rest of us may have to be content with only two cars, or possibly postpone an exotic vacation. Such is the lot of the goldbug.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:45 - ID#190411)
Sure, it smells of burning flesh out there, but, I am not quite so bearish.
In fact, I have been bottom fishing today for OZ, and NZ juniors.
Is there a broker that you trust to buy at a minimal spread?
What do you think about nick@c's junior picks?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:47 - ID#210235)
The best to you and your wife. Thank you for taking the time to check in, at your other new home. We look forward to her complete recovery, and your rapid return to us.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:52 - ID#190411)
Awaiting confirmation on your subscription. I'll get it done.
..Dreaming of a blue dress.
Voting for the poetry... that surely wasn't the problem with the slow downloads.

Who needs the viagra when the lass in blue smiles?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:53 - ID#210235)
Welcome. Yes. Some things here don't change, among them, our curiosity as to what commodities have caught your eye. I'm just stocking up on the precious at these levels, myself, in Chicago. Looking at oil very carefully. Suspect that M. Armstrong is right that it will go up by virtue of reduced supply outpacing reduced demand over time. ( April PEI letter, available for free if you ask PEI nicely, and tell them who you are ) . I'm very curious about which grains/soft commodities would benefit if we did see La Nina around the corner, Have you seen her?

See ya.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:56 - ID#210235)
Frankly, no, I don't remember Eisenhower much, nor his warning. It would be read with great interest if you chose to post it. Welcome.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:58 - ID#210235)
@Now I'm going to say goodbye
quickly, and will read you all tomorrow. Over to the boys down under.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 00:58 - ID#242303)
You are all very poetic tonight- but my loses are real. I could have stayed..and continued hoping..but the pscyhic drain was too much. I was wrong, I was badly advised..

The moving hand writes and having writ moves on..
Nor all your prayers, nor all your tears shall wash away a word of it.

John B__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:08 - ID#77133)
Worth Reprinting APH's Earlier Post
Always instructive to consider APH's disciplined approach to the market:

Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 18:20
APH ( Silver, S&P ) ID#255226:
I was stoped out of my remaining silver at 5.09 today and bought a 100% position right back near the close. The 5.06 low is 1.618 of wave a. A standard relationship according to Prechter's book. I still believe any purchase under 5.10 is a good one. Objective 5.80 +/-. If silver rallys to 5.80 gold could get back to 300 and fail. S&P should have finshed off its correction and begin an advance to 1250. It will be a narrow niffty fifty type advance.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:11 - ID#190411)
@ Anyone
Why are there so many mining stocks priced in fractions of dollars?
.13 $AUS, .6875$US.
Today, I called my dipsh*t broker yo buy CAU @ 11/16.

5000 shares cost more than 6.3% in commisions.
I took a pass.
I must assume that the penny stocks are traded to benefit the brokers.
I'll do it on my own from now on.
TVX is the much better deal

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:12 - ID#286230)
Canadian markets are now in tenths

John B__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:13 - ID#77133)
I can sympathize - try your best now to mourn your losses and then regather your confidence. Wait patiently for a good bottom to form in gold. There will be another opportunity to get your money back. G'nite.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:16 - ID#16255)
BigOtis, Please show proof of you claim!
First let me welcome you to kitco! If you are a programmer, you will
understand the gravity of the following statement:

The onus is on the person asserting the positive.

You said in your post:
"While you all say, "so what", two items require that I write. One is the complete nonsense surrounding the Y2K"

You asserted the positive, "complete nonsense"

Please "prove" to myself, and the forum that Y2k is "complete nonsense".

Best Regards, O.L.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:16 - ID#284255)
I too appreciate the view
When one has many charts to put into context
Without the clutter of the net
And the waiting between buttons and urls.

An hour or two of work
For a lifetime of pleasure?
Nick's picks are good.
All these co's have the potential to do an 'Annaconda'. - 20c to $4.50

You have to have the turf
And lots of it too.
To produce the abundant goodies.

Prose doesn't slow down time on the net
It slows down time for the 'netter'
As Ancient Pan Did Sing

Come drink the flowing cup that pours
From the rich earth and sky
The full rich wine of life, until
Our moment passes by

And everything about us be
Poured into lifes rich cup
Till every sense and every mood
Of soul be lifted up

Toast with the richest wine the faith
That binds men to the truth
Drink deep to the eyes and ruby lips
The loyalties of youth

And fill a pot with that rich wine
The fruitfulness of earth
And toast with awe the harvest yield
The mystery of birth

Come, drink -- until the senses glow
With peace and genial mirth
And praise with love the Unknown One
Who made the fruitful earth

Back to the paint'in

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:17 - ID#286230)
My approach is to treat the price of gold like it is the wind and I'm sailing-- Hard to get anywhere going against the wind but its wise to have your sails ready when you think its time to feel the wind. Guys who think they know when and where the wind will blow are like power boat sailors --but the analogy doesn't work Its the movement of the wind that counts not the size of the motor.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:22 - ID#250121)
New Zilund brokers, & NZ Gold Depositary
I have known too many sharebrokers to believe you'll ever find one who places his clients' interests above his own. Having said that, the two links below are amongst the best for different reasons.

Access brokerage was the first of the deep discount brokers, and made its reputation as a breaker of what used to be fixed commisssion rates, so John Reumann and his staff are free thinkers. They provide little or no advice:

Craig & Co, OTOH have very good analysts and excellent client reports, speak to Brent Sheather, tell him aurator sent you, he won't have a clue who I am, until maybe I get to Whakatane again and let the cat out of the bag.

I can offer yo one other way to invest in PMs downunder. Sent me 9999 coins and bars. I will store it in a secret place and send you a Guaranteed Gold Depository Certificate from the Bank of Timel.

I have not held paper for some years. Then again, when I was working in the local markets during the 80's the NZSE was pushing 4000, now we're at 1997, it's not been as low since the crash of 87. Brave man indeed to buy paper now.

I think Nick@C looks good in fishnet stockings, now that you mention it. Oh, you didn't? Nick's pix are legendary.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:24 - ID#229103)
@Selby -
My prediction for gold is that it will rise in the next 12 months because of inflation and political unrest. Just as the people in control have lied about economic numbers to fuel this Goldilocks economy, they have controlled the price of gold because they know that a rise in price will cause their paper to burn. Probably, at the same time they are lying to the sheep of this country, they are buying with both fists the metal they denigrate. The government has grown far beyond the size it can be sustained, but continues to grow. Any downturn in the economy will precipitate disaster. Where Indonesia is a 1 on a scale of 10, when the truth emerges ( pick any: inflation, deflation, market crash, Y2K delayed welfare checks, ... ) , level 10 riots will hit the streets of every major city. This is not what I want to happen, but barring a complete purge of the immoral leadership of this country I feel it is inevitable, unfortunately. And gold will rise. If I was optimistic about the future I'd still be throwing money at the equity funds I was in 2 years ago.

To steal a line from Lloyd Bentsen: I know the definition of a rhetorical question, a rhetorical question was a friend of mine, but your question was no rhetorical question.

So your prediction is that gold will drop below $250. It very well could happen, but I'll neither profit nor lose since I'm only buying natural resource stocks not selling.

FYI, if you or LGB spouted off in a bar the way you do here, you would be in deep ...

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:29 - ID#401460)
Hong Kong-Gold

HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $286.05 an ounce on Saturday, down $1.90 from Friday's close of $287.95 an ounce.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:29 - ID#284255)
OZ stocks are cheap!!!

I'm not 100% on the rules but I think:
Under 50c shares can trade in 0.5c intervals
Under 10c shares can trade in 0.1c intervals

Some make big money trading 2c to 2.5c - 25% profit less comm.

This is a way of life to many here.
Surfin the waves.
Small but powerful

Dave in CO
(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:30 - ID#229103)
Make that social unrest not political unrest

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:31 - ID#252150)
It's sad to read of fine people like Wizened taking losses in the PMs
I must admit though, that I'm encouraged by their misfortune. They are the weak hands.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:35 - ID#286230)
Dave in Co

The title of the forum includes "discussion". For a couple of thousand years an accepted way of starting a discussion is to state your position in a way that encourages questions and arguments. That is what I did--a common practice world wide. Sorry if that is not the way they do things in Colorado. Like the man said this is a place for discussion and for me the central topic is where is the price of gold going. Lots of other chat fits in but your constant moaning about a reaonably correct prediction is childish and beneath the level of adult discusion.

I often spout off in bars but since I don't drink with jerks life is just fine.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:45 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the Charts, more confirmation of similarity to 72 and other cycles.

I am not sure how all of this deflation plays into these past cycles?


(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:48 - ID#373403)
The 1998 monthly increase in M3 numbers are for the previous 12 months. They are yearly through 1997 and then become a moving 12 month increase for each month in 1998.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 01:57 - ID#24135)
Nothing wrong with Glenn
To OldGold ..
I have a problem with your post to Glenn.. which reads..

" But I and many others would be interested to
know why you are so certain that POG is going
much lower. A forecast without a rationale is of
little use to anybody. "

The gold price is in a clear a down trend .. in
simple terns .. trading below the 200 day MA for
a long time and in a down channel. All attempts to
break overhead resistance have failed. The rationale
should be clear to anyone. The trend is your friend.
Maybe you dont like that .. ok try this .. better not
let the trend be your ENEMY.
All the various "rationales" that have been offerred
so far at locating bottoms have failed.
"Rationales" and good ones are required by the guys
that think the gold market is turning up. On the data
to date, the market is dowm .. the rationale is simply
open your eyes.
Countertrend rallies CAN be played .. but you better
be fast on your feet and realize what you are doing.
We will reach a bottom sooner or later .. the
prior low would be a good place to start looking ..
maybe ..

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 02:07 - ID#24135)
Look Homeward ....
Farfel ..
The Thomas Wolfe of Kitco .. But you need a Maxwell
Perkins .. You really do.

For Mozel ..
Your eloquence astounds .. I freely translate your
23:55 as "We've been had ".

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 02:10 - ID#24135)
A Brilliant Exposition
Earl ..
Your 22:45 should be printed out and
glued to the walls of all traders ..
Maybe even nailed to the foreheads
of a few.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 02:38 - ID#227238)
John Disney: I'll be quite pleased if I can get it permanently nailed to my own forehead. ..... The process of separating personal wants, needs, desires and voluptuous fairy tales, from cold hard reality has been a difficult and painfully treacherous business. ..... Oh! And did I mention very expensive as well?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 02:48 - ID#284255)
I think 72 stands out well because of the scale.

It would be good to see these charts with a full time scale.

I would appreciate any other sites of similiar economic charts
A few hours and I can build a good web page.

That last one was hastily contrived and a few charts doubled up.

I am interested in creating a web page for all us Kitcoites.
Favourite charts and favourite sites etc.

Any suggestions please email au

If I get enough imput I will be able to build a comprehensive page
Covering the needs of goldbugs.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 02:50 - ID#284255)
Wrong email

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 03:49 - ID#384350)
Stphane's Gold Page Translation

Crucial Levels: $287.70 and $300

Gold is still rangebound between 287.70 and 300. Gold will find significant resistance as it approaches the $295-300 range due to:

-The ST/MT bearish trendline ( black on chart )
-The LT bearish trendline ( blue on chart )
-The former upward trendline which is now resistance ( pink on chart )
-The weekly moving average ( red on chart )

For the moment, these 4 items are providing significant resistance to a rise in the price of gold. The MACD indicator continues its slow deterioration, which calls for extreme caution.

If the 287.7-288 level is broken on a weekly close, then a new downward phase with a target of $278 minimum is foreseen. Only a rise above $300 would give us a very positive outlook on gold and mining shares.

Opinion is still neutral for the medium term. I will update the elliott wave analysis next week. I will also notify you of a new analysis of the gold chart that could possibly give a scary outlook for the weeks to come.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 04:09 - ID#386279)
I pay $49 commission on any share purchase/sale up to $100 000, plus .0015x stamp duty. A purchase of $ 20 000 costs me $20 079. Therefore commissions and duties are almost negligible considerations in my purchases. Probably why I'm in'n out so much. Just have to get the direction right. A purchase of 500 000 at 3.5 cents in the morning and a sale at 4 cents in the afternoon is a good days work.

If you are paying 6.3% commission on your pissant mining companies--you should try trading Aussie shares. Best casino in town!!!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 05:11 - ID#413109)
Otis-Take notice, I'm just an average citizen interested in self and family,
and have been taking the y2k information ( HYPE if you like ) seriously,
fully realizing that it's never going to be the worst case scenario, but
it also isn't going to be a picnic, where nothing happens.

In your post, you state your credentials of a programmer of 29years.
This would put you in a position of being informed, and please tell
me that all the information we're reading about, from the likes of
prof. dr. Yardeni, on down, is nothing more than a money making
thingy, and we shouldn't worry? If that is the case than please be so
kind as to reply to a few questions I have:
1 ) why are major world companies spending billions of $s and other
currencies, to become compliant.
2 ) why do these companies put out brochures, to inform their clients
of what they are doing to become compliant, but are warning that their
suppliers, may not be, and as a result it could affect their operations
come the year 2000?
3 ) are embedded chips, many of which cannot be accessed, nothing
but hype, and will not affect our lives in any way?
4 ) water and electricity, and other sources of energy, as well as the
communications we have become dependent upon, will you be telling
the likes of me, will be functioning without hitches on the 1st Jan, 2000???

Thanks for emailing your reply to-
(Sat Jun 13 1998 05:26 - ID#434108)
The brewing conflagration in the Balkans
(Sat Jun 13 1998 05:28 - ID#434108)
UK commits air-power to the Balkans (/BBC)
(Sat Jun 13 1998 05:41 - ID#434108)
"Race dominates Australian election" (/BBC)

( ( The following comments/opinions/words, are strictly my own, and have no affiliation with any news organization/media/entity. ) )

Is this example of election trends in Australia, perhaps, a sign of the inevitable trend toward protectionism, & the reality of economic hard times, begins to spread....?

Is there not a parallel here, something similiar & similarly sinister, to the rise of Nazism in post-WWI Germany. ...?

Is -- what is happening now in Australia, and Japan, and what has already happened in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, Russia, etc. -- not headed - relentlessly & inevitably - to the shores, show-rooms, board-rooms & brothels .... of Europe & the U.S.A. ...?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 06:14 - ID#230376)
@! Auraacious and Reify.......

'Rator, you may be better at this than I, but scan the syntax of Big O's post and see if he doesn't sound like another ANOTHER....Reify, dittos to the Big O's post. Good day from the chilly Midwest !...nice GOLDEN sunrise today........bbl

(Sat Jun 13 1998 06:36 - ID#255284)
I'm as blue as my new tatu...........
BigO is not another. You may be more paranoid than skwirl and I.

BigO. I reckon your contrary advice on Y2K is needed here, am obliged to you. To be prepared, we all need to be three steps ahead of the rest of pan~icky humanity...when chaos is the order of the day...the mind that has re-interpreted chaos as "As Before" shall be a country mile ahead of the rest..

Use blue-tack or velcro rather than nails to preserve these thoughts.. Nails are so, well, crucifying. Perhaps you may prefer the idea of a tattoo ( the word is Polynesian, and Maori downunder are rediscovering their tatooing in the form of both body tatoo and facial tatoo. Samoans, like HST's attorney, have never lost the tradition. Orkland is the largest city of Polynesians in the world, if it stops raining tomorrow we'll go to the Avondale flea-market, bought a nice wee half sov last month..


(Sat Jun 13 1998 06:47 - ID#386279)
ERLE, not Earl
Sorry, didn't know there were two Dukes.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 06:59 - ID#413109)
Ersel of the midwest, send me an email and
I'll email U sunsets from mid-east

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:05 - ID#386279)
A good mate of mine married a girl from Popondetta. Her face is covered in the most intricate of tattoos. I believe one of the reasons they tattoo their girls at an early age is to keep them from marrying 'others'. Doesn't always work. Teenage girls here on Oz are jumping on the tat bandwagon--though not on the face. Now what does this have to do with the POG?? There is a very important connection and just as soon as I figure it out I'll let you know.

Promey--You are right about the reasons for holding physical. In Oz we are considerably ahead on any physical gold purchased in the last 6 months or so. It has protected us against the "South Pacific Peso". Don't you love Bill Buckler's term for the Aussie $$.

Wizened--my prediction, mate. You will be back!! Into gold shares, I mean. You don't just throw off the hook that easily, mate. If you pick the right time, you may just be able to get in nearer the eventual bottom. How would you feel if gold turned around in the next month or so and went on to new highs in a few years? You can buy inflated paper or you can buy deflated gold. Take a break, mate. Then come back with a discount broker and tight stops. Eventually you will hit pay dirt.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:06 - ID#242325)
trend is your friend
John Disney: Your rationale is that "the trend is your friend." If that is Glenn's rationale as well, then my question has been answered.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:07 - ID#413109)
Ersel- with golden sunrise in midwest--
Email me and I'll send you special GOLD sunsets from the mideast

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:08 - ID#300202)
Management spokesperson i.d. as Danielle called me to advise again that
Fidelity DO NOT deal in Precious in any manner & wud in no shape or form
run an anti Precious ad as I described on T.V.-BUT as previously stated,
upon my call to CTV ad Dept., I was very specific as to the date/time/
contents of the Anti Precious ad at which time the Ad lady quickly
addressed the culprit as Fidelity & said-Do you want their tel #. From
a viewer's perspective-it was quite clear that there would be no identifiers in the contents of the ad. Again-the summation remarks were-
Puhleeeese-DON'T BUY PRECIOUS METALS. No mention of what specific metals.
When "THEY" say "DON'T"-makes u wanna buy more!!!!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:15 - ID#255284)
From the desk of one of the 20th century's most respected analysts, Timel.......

what's been happening, brother? Those penny stocks going like Poseidon and Bre-X?

Bot an amazing slice of straliana a CD entitled "everybody loves to watch cricket" with good ocker chants like "We want a wicket" and " The Biggest Legend in the World," songs like " Take me home Jonty Rhodes" sung to Denver's "Take me home, Country Road." and a new favourite of mine, that flaunts stralians' ironic sense of humour:

( The kiwis are not the same without ) Ewen Chatfield.

Doesn't Buckler know of anzac cove? anyway, I realise that Buckler's most excellent Aus$ charts of gold parallel those NZ$ dollar ones of the past 3 years. I'm too lazy to chart and buckler does a great job, shows how important it is to hold gold....

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:16 - ID#242325)
JP: Was this guy a gold fund manager or a general equity fund manager?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:21 - ID#255284)
Thoughts of Timel
Timel just whispered in my ear some advice for whizzened--Money management. Know when to cut your losses. Put those stops in place, let the prophets roar ( raw ) .....

He musta read the Zurich axioms by now. ( If not, buy now )

"All the lessons I've learned have been cheap, but only in hindsight"

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:37 - ID#284255)
Reify - not fair
I too would enjoy to see any response from Otis.
Perchance Otis will share his perspective with us devout kitcoites.

Why too Kay is too an intriguing concept
To leave alone.

Power Companies Blackout On Y2K
Sen. Bob Bennett ( R-Utah ) , who released results of a survey of the 10 largest energy companies by his committee, said he was worried "about the very real prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change."
This is a hot topic on CNBC
FCC Warns of Year 2000 Telecom Disruptions
Federal officials are making it known that the Year 2000 bug could cripple the foundation of the telecommunications industry globally and plunge the world into economic, political and technological chaos.
Year 2000 Bug? What's That? Say 38% In US Survey
Most troubling, Beach told Newsbytes, was that more than half ( 52 percent ) of the respondents, including those who shrug off the problem, said if it isn't solved by mid-1999, they will move their money around. A full quarter said they would simply put it under their mattress until the Y2K events are over.
"Think about half of the assets of the US middle class being moved around, and half of that taken out of the system completely over a period of six months," Beach mused. "It would be a disaster. I certainly hope the bankers are thinking about it, because the ice here is not very thick."
Beach warns that if US citizens decide the Y2K problem cannot be fixed in time -- a likelihood that IT professionals now largely acknowledge -- the result could be a run on banks to put the 1930s local banking panics to shame.

I am a Queenslander and enjoy the ruckus being kicked up by Pauline.
Beware the press and politics.

Much of what this woman has said has been twisted and turned upon her.
You have to listen to the girl and not her opposition.
Mainstream OZ pollies have done their best to slander and paint her red.
They feel threatened and so they should.
Today there is a consciousness change happening globally.
The age of transperancy - coming clean and being clean.
It's happening from Japan to the US.

Perchance the age of Aquarius is upon us.
Accountability - being responsible.
Pauline is calling upon this and the opposition is rattled
The people are calling for this and the pollies are rattled.

What we are seeing is a psychological change among the masses.
They want better, more honest pollies.
Not a repeat of what went before.

Pauline is a voice coming from the edge
But the people are behind her.

The people want the changes
Pauline is a figurehead for the peoples wishes.

To my mind this is just, fair and honest.
I support the change that the people are calling for.


So do many others judging by the results.
Don't believe all you read - esp from pollies newsbenches.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:40 - ID#242325)
Insider activity
JP: Insider buy/sell ratios havce improved substantially the last few weeks. Another signal that a big drop is NOT imminent.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:41 - ID#242325)
Insider buy/sell charts

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:44 - ID#284255)
Perchance we have a new Maggie Thatcher.

I don't aggree with all she says.
But then the last lot of clowns lead a lot to desire for.

Honesty - integrity - accountability.

Sorry but you won't see these thoughts in the press.
That is controled by those who do not want to be accountable.
And their friends are pollies who feel threatened.

Kudos for a fair change.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:45 - ID#255284)
The democratic state of Queensland:- Cairns, Charters Towers, Mount Isa did some time there
what happened in Queensland elections today? Have they been tallied?

ummm, forgot, my stralian cobbers, but there is a station ( aka farm ) in stralia that is bigger than Texas, would be obliged if someone could tell me its name..

Like viagra, "It's bigger than Texas.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 07:47 - ID#384350)
HighRise, M3
In one the past Harry Schultz Letters, maybe from about a year ago, Harry pointed out that on charted data, M3 had broken on the upside a long downtrend extending back to I think the early 80's. He also compared it to the early 70's. Maybe this time it will be a food shortage instead of an oil shortage.

Will try to dig up the info and post later in the day.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:00 - ID#386279)
G'day finnie
Have been enjoying your Y2K posts. You have just convinced me to buy even MORE long-term bank puts. Have been buying Sept. 99's. Panic should be in full swing by then. My worry with all of this paper is being able to sell it when it shoots up in value. It wouldn't be the first time the rules were changed to suit the big institutions/gubbmint interests.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:00 - ID#239365)
Trend is your friend...
John Disney:

Completely agree with your 01:57. Still thinking we shall see
280 before 300, and after that a big move up...
Still very glad with my short selling before Duisenberg
announcement; sold Randfontein at $ 2.60 ( now 2.25...
considering buy back at 2.00 or less... ) and Harmony at $ 4.55
( now 4.2... buy back considered at 3.5 or so... ) .

Trading is a two-way game; even all of us think gold is a buy
for long term, we have to cope with short term downtrends
like the present one and to make money with it...

Greetings from Paris, France.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:05 - ID#93127)
Gollum, I should like to add my heartfelt wishes for your wifes speedy recovery, with the additional prayer that this is just a short, dark tunnel through which you both passahead is sunshine and many many special days to enjoy. God bless.

Allthis touching trivia:

I wonder if any readers who watched the Nagano opening ceremony happened to note that the music at the climax, when the Olympic flame was lit, was the aria "Un bel d" from Giacomo Puccini's Madama Butterfly. According to the ceremony's producer Asari Keita, what Puccini had in mind when he wrote this song was the tragedies that were apt to unfold as the West trod on the delicate culture of Japan.
[editor, Japan Echo]

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:07 - ID#284255)
One Nation could well pick up 10 seats out of 89.
Labour in front of all.
Seems like she's running about 20% ( or better )
In the outer suburbs/rural sector

Not bad for a fledgling party - I'd fly alongside her.

Not sure on the biggest
But 'Bullo' is over a million acres.
'Victoria Downs' was over 30,000 sq miles

Gone are the days of Sid Kidman.
His empire was awesome as well the man.
Ion Idriess has many good books on OZ and it's history.
Also some great books on gold and goldmining.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:14 - ID#384350)
The Great Gold Caper
In addition to Caper's posts about the negative PM ads by Fidelity, I'd like to add my personal experience with several bankers with whom I have spoken about the possibility of buying PM's.

Each time I said I was interested in buying precious metals, they ran off the same old cr@p. Each banker in 3 or 4 different countries was reciting the same reasons why Gold supposedly wasn't a good investment. "It's a commodity. It's no longer a store of value. It doesn't pay interest, etc."

I found it strange that Bankers in different countries were reciting the same rubbish almost verbatum. It kind of makes me think that there is some sort of directive from "The Bank" so as to stop common folk from selling fiat to buy real money.

And then, if you are persistant and they sell PM's at all, they try to push Paper Gold. One bank I talked to offered paper Gold accounts. I asked further details and these accounts have no backing whatsoever; not even futures or options.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:15 - ID#45173)
Gollum: I am very sorry to hear your wife is ill. I wish her well.
Thank you for the post Highly informative reading. He makes a strong case for raising the rates to 6% or higher in March 1997, stating that the velocity of the money supply, already out of the Fed's control, will increase dangerously in 1998 if prompt action is not taken. No action was taken, and in fact the money supply has balooned as never before. It is unclear to me, however, what are the long-term implications of this. Where is this all headed? My sense is that eventually this will result in breakaway inflation once other constraints on inflation are lifted.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:25 - ID#284255)
Nick@C - g'day matey
That's all I'm holding at the moment
And they're not getting any cheaper.

They've flooded the market with these warrants
Talk about horse racing tactics.

How's those rotties going
Fed 'em any pollies lately?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 08:30 - ID#93127)
The Cyclical Sensibility of Edo-Period Japan ( TANAKA Yko )
From the seventeenth through mid-nineteenth century, Japan adopted a policy of national seclusion. Though often viewed as a time of stagnation, this Edo period featured a lively and growing market economy. But people's thinking was strongly shaped by the idea that all resources are finite, to be used properly and then recycled. Artisans took it for granted that their wares would last for centuries. Human waste was valuable fertilizer; since it was not allowed to contaminate the waterways, sanitation levels were high. We should relearn the Edo-period approach to complete recycling.

The Edo period produced some quite beautiful gold coins too! Coincidental of course that Japan Echo and the Bank of Japan should both mention this period now

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:10 - ID#45173)
@Caper, Wizened, Open-Loop
Caper: It is common for US corporations to test-market products and marketing campaigns in Canada. The market dynamics are similar, yielding statistically useful information, yet the impact is isolated. So it is possible that Fidelity is behind the ad. No matter who it is, they are breaking Advertising 101 Rule #1: Do not advertise your competition if you are in the dominant market position. Now they have created more awareness of gold when in fact they want to turn existing sentiment away from gold. I expect the numbers they get back from this test will show this and you'll see no more ads like it. I hope they do run more, tho.

Wizened: The greatest opportunities are there for those who are willing to swim against a tide with full knowledge of the risks and a conviction in their hearts and minds that they are doing the right thing. While you are in the water swimming against the tide, it does not feel good. All along the way you are tempted to get the hell out of the freezing water into a nice, dry boat and leave your investment of time and effort and money in the water.

It may feel like gold is dead and equities will rule forever. A tide is a strong force. But tides come in and tides go out. As during all shifts, the shorts make bargains for the longs.

Open-Loop: I too have been a programmer and I'm aware that all Y2K bugs are fixable. But I also know the the scale of the job is enormous and personally know of many organizations that have been avoiding Y2K for years and may not have enough time left. Your programmers' conspiracy theory is interesting. I ask, is Sherry Burns of the CIA getting kickbacks from consultants in Asia to pay her to say we will see "social, political, and economic tumult" result there due to lack of Y2K preparation? If in fact she is not getting paid off and her predictions are correct, then do you think "social, political, and economic tumult" in Asia will have no effect on the US?


(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:10 - ID#93127)
If gold is just a "pretty", why this sentence? And what are the implictions of this sentence?

( 1 ) One finds thisif not an astonishing statementsurely one of inordinate interest. against GOLD and the US dollar. Might the thoughtful intellects on this board clarify?

Introduction of the Euro Compilation of Community Legislation and Related Documents
( October, 1997 )
Article 23

23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs AGAINST GOLD and US
DOLLARS as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement shall be
Page 39 of 159

Mr. Mick
(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:16 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1 - what were you commenting on last night re: Texas??
Please explain. -Good morning, all. Seems Davidson was right - DEFLATION

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:22 - ID#344308)

john disney---

you state that the trend for gold has been in the world did you come to that conclusion? as i've stated here many is in a quite definitive UP-TREND........go to vronskys' site and look at the trend from 1800.....1900......this is a LONG-TERM UP-TREND!

knowing when to buy the dips is the key......too many have bought too soon.....options for those who do not have the garbanzos big enough to ride the buffalo bare-back......betting the farm on ANYTHING is ascinine.
get a gilded jock-stap before mounting the beast.......mountain oysters
are non-gratis in my tent.......

yes........GOLD IS IN A DEFINITIVE it should be......the truth....look at the charts....they do not lie...
history...looking back, to see forward..... chops the good and bad.....and has connotative to the lake on the party barge.....36' of pure
joy...the family, the lake, and knowledge........damn, life is good.....
commodities make it safe, use options for insurance...

cherokee!; ) ...driver-of-the-smoke-signal-mobile.....ALLABOARD..

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:28 - ID#93127)
If you're interested in the re-emergence of the Edo period (1603-1868) in Japanese consciousness...
this is an informative ( and painless {:- ) ) site...the timing is also
of great interest!


(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:33 - ID#262242)
Sorry to hear about your wife. I will hold her up in prayer. The Lord loves you and wifey to.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:38 - ID#286199)
Barron's article on Gold....
June 15, 1998

Gold to Dross

Even the metal's fans are abandoning it

By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn

Last week gold lost another 2%, or more than $6, after the new European Central Bank announced it will hold no more than 15% of its reserves of about $55 billion in gold when it takes over European monetary policy in January. That was at the low end of the market's expectations; some estimates of gold's portion of ECB reserves ran as high as 30%. Gold prices have declined by over $20 in the past six weeks, with the active August contract settling Friday at $287.30 an ounce.

The immediate future is no brighter. No one knows what will happen to, and who has control over, the remaining 12,000 tons of gold -- roughly equal to five years' mine production -- held by the 11 member participants in European economic and monetary union that may be excluded from the ECB's reserves.

So, who wants to own gold these days? Even the people in the business of being long gold, namely the gold mutual funds, are moving away from the industry. In fact, many gold funds' top stock holdings today are not gold companies at all.

The funds have been burned by bad performance. The average gold fund is down over 33% for 12 months through the end of the first quarter in 1998. Declining assets have resulted not only from sub-par returns, but also from redemptions.

Kjeld Thygesen, manager of the Midas Fund, has seen his assets cut in half, to $120 million from $230 million in 1996, due to poor performance. His fund's negative return was nearly 60% last year.

Thygesen recently decided to boost his cash holdings to 10% of the fund's assets and has actually shifted the weighting of the stocks in his portfolio so that 10% of the fund is not even in gold stocks. Some of his

holdings: Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Asarco, the copper company, and Mueller Industries, which manufactures fabricated steel products.

"These companies are not directly correlated to metal prices," Thygesen says. "On occasion, we've been in other areas before, but never like this."

Caesar Bryan at the Gabelli Gold Fund can empathize. He's seen his performance, and thus his fund's assets, dwindle, too. His fund's assets now stand at just $14 million after returns of nearly minus 60% last year. His major holdings are also not in gold mining. They include Stillwater Mining, a platinum and palladium play, and two royalty companies, Euro-Nevada and Franco-Nevada, which collect an annuity-like return on leases of gold properties.

"We have no credibility left," says Bryan. "I thought gold could have bottomed a long time ago." Indeed, not only have the gold-fund managers lost credibility, but these moves show their desperation. By shunning their own sector of the market, these gold funds have become market timers. Should gold rally, they may now underperform.

But at least the Midas and Gabelli funds are still in business. Many others have closed or merged. Morgan Stanley no longer has an institutional gold fund. Blanchard merged its fund with Evergreen and SoGen's Gold Fund manager is talking of closing his fund too.

Even worse, at Lexington Strategic, with assets over $100 million, no one is currently running the company's three gold funds. The manager resigned and the company hasn't found a replacement.

Investors in Lexington's funds should know that their traders have been told simply to hold the gold funds' positions and not to do anything while the company decides their fate, in part because it may close at least one fund. The South African gold fund simply does not have enough companies left in its universe to be diversified anymore because below-breakeven gold prices have forced consolidation among South African


Even companies known for their bullish bias on gold, like Friedberg Mercantile Group, are not mentioning their gold funds to potential investors who inquire about the company's fund selection. "No one wants to hear about gold," says Friedberg trader Danny Gordon. "We don't even discuss the funds. We can't market them. We can't even keep the minimum number of investors required to make it eligible for retirement plans anymore."

A contrarian might see this as a bullish sign for gold, but the real message may be about the mutual-fund industry. If gold funds are closing, merging and can't be marketed in a bear market, what may happen to the fund industry when the stock market as a whole turns down?

And does that mean that fund companies like T. Rowe Price or Franklin Resources don't deserve their above-market price-to-earnings multiples, but should trade more like the shares of cyclical stocks? Recent U.S. history aside, stock markets are cyclical. Just look at Japan. And bond funds, compared to their assets, are less profitable for mutual-fund companies than stock funds.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:45 - ID#411331)
@Caper: I also heard an anti-gold ad on Friday. On my way to work about
8:15 a.m. on radio 680 ( Toronto ) I heard a 15 second spot that stated that gold reached 25 year lows ( adjusted for inflation ) last year and
that the Toronto Stock Exchange Index has only a 5% weighting in gold
shares. The message was a warning against pms and it seemed to come
from a local source. When was the last time you heard an ad telling
you NOT to buy something?

My interpretation is the shorts are getting nervous. What's yours?
Recall that it was a Canadian short in silver that brought that
sham of a lawsuit that forced W. Buffett to divulge his silver purchases
last year. Dirty business.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 09:48 - ID#331205)
SDRer @ Edo
Great link, thanks!
The Edo period produced many fine and still standing
architectural efforts in both building and landscape.
It seems that the best and worst of Japanese modern
society was formed during this era.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:10 - ID#300202)
@Rhody-Ad Blew U Off the Don Valley
If u read my initial post-man had opened mini briefcase displaying
PM coins-aaah flashback-they were all silver ( probably about 50 all
lined in rows ) in nature-subliminal. Concur with you. But surely-to run
the ad nationally at such great expense-prime time Canada AM. What
affect in the Prairies or destitute Atlantic Canada.
E.J.-cud have been running test numbers-BUT-no contact tel # nor
company name. I had to troll for the initiator.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:11 - ID#93127)
Thoughts from Edo

I go to the hillside and wander,
The hillside-why is it so saddening?
Yellow of dandelion with shepherd's purse blooming white,
There's no one to look at it.
Is that a pheasant? I hear it call over and over;
I had a friend, he lived with a river between us.
"Mourning for My Teacher Hokuju" Yosa Buson, 1716-1783

Forklift@You're.very.welcome!{:- ) Incidentally, you brought up a fine point yesterday that one would like to delve into: responding to the "why" of what some of us see as the imbalance Japan/US, you said something to the effect that "perhaps it is because the US is the most powerful nation in the world" That made me pause and reflect, because it is no doubt the perception; is it the reality? And further, particularly for the Kitco Contraries, what constitutes "power"? Financial assets? Armed might? Moral force? Any of the above? All of the above? This is superficially a simple question; as one reflects on it, it seems core and complexand it is nagging me to death!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:15 - ID#286230)
Crystallex investors bailing out

Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post
Crystallex International Corp. said Friday it will assess the implications of a Venezuelan court
decision to reject its claim to the Las Cristinas gold mine.
But that didn't prevent a selling spree that sent the stock
( KRY/TSE, AMEX ) plunging $1.47 to $1.08 in Toronto on
heavy volume of 2.6 million shares. In New York, the stock
tumbled US$11/8 to 3/4 on volume of 2.7 million as
investors reacted to the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruling
handed down late Thursday.
The decision prevents Crystallex from challenging the
right of Placer Dome Inc. and its Venezuelan partner to
develop a US$600-million mine at the Las Cristinas site.
Crystallex said it is reviewing the implications of the court's
ruling and will assess all available options.
But analysts say the firm has no choice but to put the suit
behind it.
"It's dead, it's history,'' said John Kilburn, an analyst with
Goepel McDermid Inc. in Vancouver.
"The ruling went against them and it's unappealable,'' said
another Vancouver analyst.
Having lost the suit, Crystallex is left with about $20 million in working capital and its small
money-losing Albino gold mine in Venezuela.
"Crystallex remains committed to Venezuela and will continue to participate in the
development of its mining sector," said Crystallex chief executive Marc Oppenheimer. He said
the Albino mine is producing gold at an annual rate of 15,000 ounces.
"Albino alone will place Crystallex well on its way to achieving the strategic objective of
producing 150,000 ounces of gold each year."

Dave in CO
(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:20 - ID#229103)
@Selby - 01:35
The title of the forum indeed includes the word "discussion." That implies debate when gold is going UP and debate when gold is going DOWN. Since I don't recall seeing your "debate" until gold started going down again, I conclude that your attacks on goldbugs are, like LGB's, a mechanism to feed your swollen ego, but I'll defer to any expert psychiatric/psychological opinions. At least LGB sticks around ( although in his muted, good-guy personality ) when gold is rising.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:21 - ID#45173)
Caper: when a company runs a test ad, they call you, you don't call them
They call a pre-determined, statistically sound sample of listeners.

Who is afraid the public will buy gold? Who stands to lose? Why do they think they have something to fear? I feel that this ad is a test of public sentiment about gold. I wish I knew for sure who was doing the testing and I'd love even better to read the results.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:22 - ID#263254)
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:39
Mr. A. Goose: The BIS is not a broker or trading house. They do not move with chart patterns or wall street directives. If gold drifts under 280 for any period of time, they must act to forestall a much worse outcome. That being; Oil will not allow LBMA to drive gold so low as to make the CBs the only suppliers. Oil will bid for gold and in doing so create an "oil currency" out of it. That outcome would make the current "currency debts" ( bonds ) next to worthless and turn the financial system upside down.

ANOTHER has repeatedly made the above statement about gold not being allowed to stay below $280.

So, I gotta ask, does anyone on this forum REALLY think that gold will be allowed to drop and STAY below $280 for any length of time????

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:33 - ID#286230)
Dave in CO
Davey Boy--the reason you haven't seem any comments from me while gold has been going up is the trend of gold has been going down since Kitco first came on the air aabout 2 years ago--long before you showed up. What I am looking for and have been happy to discuss is any way to determine when it has hit the bottom and started to go up.

Had enough of your embittered and content-free attacks Dave. Since you know nothing about precious metals or even own any and since you can't seem to figure out what is going one around here I think you can join the erroneous Spin Doctor on the list of goofs not to bother responding to.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:38 - ID#93232)
Speed, thanks for your post of Barren's article. It certainly touchs on the complexity of the financial ( i.e., paper ) market and how that affects PM's. I'm new to this gold business and prefer to keep things simple, so I buy it and hold it instead of speculating. A friend of mine likes futures contracts and I had a chance to watch him at work. It was very interesting and at one point, I asked him what kind of return he was getting. He told me he lost money last year. It struck me that playing the markets, whether its commodities futures or stocks & bonds, is a crap shoot. If I want to gamble, I reckon I could head down the road to one of these fancy new casinos we got here. But I'm a working man. I don't push paper. Makes life too complicated. I'm not looking forward to when the dollar and stocks come down because it will affect us all ( money & work will dry up if nothing else ) . But that's why I buy is insurance.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:39 - ID#45173)
Selby: As I've noted before, I got in too soon
But I am not sweating it overmuch. I view gold not as a way to gain wealth but to preserve it in times of economic and political chaos. No one really gets wealthy when the world economy is contracting at the end of a debt cycle, but some retain wealth better than others, depending on where they put it. We have enjoyed a long and fruitful period of economic and political stability. The emergence of signs of instability are here. But I too expect gold to go down for a while more before the more from soft to hard assets. What is your sense? How much more?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:43 - ID#286230)
Never East anything you can't Lift--Miss Piggy
Parking money waiting for Gold to turn was easier than I knew.

Index funds in the money

'No-brainer' funds are outclassing returns from many hands-on money

The Financial Post
Once derided as the no-brainers of the mutual fund business, index funds are attracting a
torrent of new money -- and embarrassing a lot of hands-on money managers with their
superior returns.
At the end of April, there were 27 index funds available to Canadians, with assets of $3.5
billion, up 142% from last year -- making them the fastest growing fund category.
Since 1991, when index fund assets amounted to just $157 million, they have grown at an
average annual rate of 74%.
Unlike actively managed funds that buy and sell shares based on the strategy of the
manager, index funds simply track an index by holding a basket of its stocks.
Two factors are behind their growing popularity.
u On average, index funds have been outperforming their so-called actively managed rivals.
u They're also cheaper. While actively managed equity funds come with management
expense ratios of about 2.5%, index funds typically levy less than half that.
In today's volatile market, where every percentage point counts, it makes sense to invest in
an index, says Eric Kirzner, a professor at the University of Toronto's Joseph Rotman School
of Management.
CIBC Securities Inc., the leader in the sector, has seen its index fund assets soar from
nothing two years ago to $1.2 billion at the end of May.
Despite being a newcomer to the sector -- CIBC's oldest fund is less than two years old -- its
index products pulled in more than 20% of its total RRSP fund sales this year.
At TD Securities Inc., the No. 2 player in the sector, the numbers are even more dramatic. Its
index fund assets have shot up by more than 50% in the first five months of 1998 -- from $675
million to $1 billion.
What's driving that growth, said Karl Schulz, TD's managing director, is simple fund
performance. As a group, index products have outperformed actively managed funds by a
significant margin.
Over the past 12 months, fewer than half -- 41.4% -- of equity mutual funds have
outperformed the Toronto Stock Exchange's 300 composite index.
Over three years, that number drops to 37.1%. Over 10 years, it falls to just 32.7%.
In the U.S. market, the numbers are even more dramatic. Only 10.3% of U.S. equity funds
outperformed Standard & Poor's 500 composite index during the past year. Over three years,
it's only 5.1%, and over 10 years, 7.4%.
If the U.S. experience is anything to go by, index funds are going to get a lot more popular,
Today, about US$140 of every US$1,000 that's invested in U.S. stock funds is going to funds
that mimic the S & P 500, a popular indicator for the overall U.S. market. That's up from US$50
of every US$1,000 invested in stock funds as recently as 1995.
Index funds in the U.S. represent about 10% of total mutual fund assets, said Simon Lewis,
president of Royal Mutual Funds Inc.
In Canada, only about 1% or 2% of total mutual fund assets are in index funds, he said. "But it
seems logical for them to grow to 10% over the next 10 years."
Although Royal doesn't sell index fund products, Lewis indicated that may change. "We are
not going to sit back and just let TD and CIBC take that sector."
"If you believe in market diversification, then you index," said Kirzner, who believes that index
funds are the best way to avoid trying to guess which fund will outperform.
While they don't often generate stellar numbers over the short term, a combination of solid
medium-term returns combined with low management expenses can drive an index fund's
long-long term performance into the top quartile.
Another indication of investor interest in index-linked funds is the extraordinary success of the
TSE's TIPS ( Toronto Index Participation units ) 100 and 35 products.
Launched in 1990, TIPS 35 -- trust units that track the TSE 35 index -- were the third most
actively traded issue in 1997, said Lynda Briant, the TSE's director of index services.
"Since about 1996, we've seen incredible demand for both products," she said.
TIPS are bought and sold just like stocks. They're somewhat more cumbersome to trade than
mutual funds, and they don't have dividend reinvestment plans. But investors don't get hit with
management expense fees either.
-- with files from Bloomberg

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:43 - ID#290172)
EJ--Thanks for the best question of the YEAR! {:-)
'Who is afraid the public will buy gold? Who stands to lose? Why do they think they have something to fear?"

Excellent question! NOW we approach the 'nitty-gritty'
( 1 ) From whence has come the most virulent pronouncements against gold?
( 2 ) The US/IMF/WB gold chimera has kept the terminally ill dollar hooked-up to life-support, breathing but not living, far longer than sensible minds would have believed possible.
( 3 ) Take a look at Steve Salant, he who is called by the media 'the Fed's gold specialist'
( 4 ) Ask, with me, what the heck the EMU was about with THIS statement:

23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US
dollars as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement shall be
Page 39 of 159

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:44 - ID#300202)
@Gotcha EJ-The Lights Came On!!!!
I have only two channels-Left & Right-No cable or dish. No Merkan T.V.
Unfamiliar with these type of ads. Thanks.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:47 - ID#258142)
Dow/Gold correlation chart updated
Correlation coefficient is calculated for 90 days period and shown as a red line. Currently, coefficient is +0.283 ( no statistically significant dependency between Dow and Gold ) , but declining fast.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:59 - ID#286230)
EJ: Predicting the depth to which gold may go is a task that brings little good around here. My thought about 24 months ago was that gold was falling like a commodity that was largely unwanted by anyone other than its usual daily users. If so gold should drop to about its cost of production. At that time I set off to find the cost of production but now one here had a clue ( everybody knows what its price should be and will be --but nobody knows its cost ) .

A lengthy search of the Web left me with the views of several gurus as well as gold mining types and a figure of $250. That was in Oct-Nov of 1996 and I saw other references to that figure in 1997 as well. So if you add $25 for hysteria--I estimated $250 as a low and tried to get some discussion but got mostly flak. Not a bad prediction so far--but not complicated or mathematical enough for some--and too accurate for others.

Now we have a lot of the higher cost mines closed and presumably many of the remaining mines now mining their higher grade ore. Assuming nothing happens to get the man in the street to buy and send the price up $100s what is the current estimated cost of production? I don't know-- but I suspect it is now much lower than the $275 or so of 1996-97.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 10:59 - ID#284255)
SDR - folly - fear - frenzy
Seems like wev'e had the folly
Now we have the fear
And soon to appear the frenzy.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:09 - ID#290172)
I'm sorta in the 'frenzy' mode! {:- ) Or maybe that's just
"frenzy and mad"? {:- ) )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:09 - ID#227168)
200 year Dreams
Gold is in a long term up trend ---I hope these people live to the ripe age of 200 years Away to take age killing pills.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:11 - ID#229103)
@Selby - your pomposity is matched only by your condescension
My posts are content-free regarding economics? Very likely since I've been pretty busy the last 30+ years developing business application software. As for you, I would guess you are a government employee.

I wish you were right about my not owning any gold/natural resource stocks, but unfortunately, as I stated before in a content-free post, I got completely out of equity funds and completely into natural resource stocks 2 years ago. And I'm not selling but only buying so far ( except SSRIF which I sold at 5 5/8 then bought back an $11,000 chunk at around 3 1/8; probably another mistake ) .

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:11 - ID#290172)
What it's all about, Alfie: get rid of the dollar and defacto debt default

"At Dublin, two issues were left open: the precise date for the introduction of euro banknotes and coins, and the redenomination of outstanding debt." [Legal Framework for Use of the Euro, Bruxelles, 4.8.1997 II/088/97-EN

Bringing the EURO onstream as rapidly as possible has been so crucial to German interests that they have 'swallowed' the "MedClub" ( Italy, Spain, and Portugal ) -

Date: Sun, Feb 23 13:47:04 1997
From: Philippe Klein in Brussels

Considered inconceivable, is the input of " Southerners " in the euro in 1999; according to a report, Germany would be ready to withdraw UEM.

Philippe Klein in Brussels

" Either the Germans pay for the Southerners of the Med Club, or they see their social standing drop: against the official declarations, it would be an error to think that the debate on the UEM in Germany is closed ". If Italy joins the economic and monetary Union ( UEM ) in January 1999, Germany will desert the euro. This is what a recent European report affirms. According to this internal document in possession of FE ( E ) , Germany considers it inconceivable " that Rome be seriously considered for membership in the UEM. Rejecting Portugal, Spain and especially Italy - called the " Med Club ", the Germans would be ready at the last moment to withdraw euro, whose chances of survival are estimated at 55% only."

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:14 - ID#286199)
I am long gold and silver, stocks only and unmargined, so I can hold as long as I want. I posted the Barron's article because it has some interesting points about gold mutual funds. These funds are market makers and they are throwing in the towel. Gold is so despised by the investment community that they are running ads warning folks not to buy! The prices are dropping and mine closures and consolidations are in progress. When all of the bad news is in, the only direction is up.

Good news for gold:

1. Pakistan and India are making nice about nukes and Kashmir border dispute. Sanctions won't last long and demand for gold/silver will increase.

2. Japanese buying is rumored by a reputable source. This could be the warm up to an Asian "Pearl Harbor" style attack against the dollar.

3. Sentiment can't get any lower. Even this gold forum is hard pressed to muster any optimism. The weak hands are long gone. The only players left are the shorts and the really tough longs.

4. "Gold is Dead" articles by Barron's. That's gotta be good for a couple dollars up on Monday. : )

5. Supply is dropping as mining companies go bankrupt and marginal shafts are closed. The price of gold has fallen below the cost of production for many mines. At some point soon, the central banks will wittingly or unwittingly kill the mining industry and gold will skyrocket as commercial consumers realize that they must get their gold from banks, or the banks will back off and allow the price to recover. Either way, the war against gold is probably in the final year, bwdik, imho etc.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:14 - ID#434108)
Dave & Selby
Why don't you two, kiss & make up.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:15 - ID#358318)
In your 10:22 message you ask "does anyone on this forum REALLY think that gold will be allowed to drop and STAY below $280 for any length of time????"

I do believe you have highlighted something very important, that
although gold is unlikely to fall below $280, which is a consensus
figure amongst several gurus, never mind Mr Another, it could
very well spike down for a short time. This could cause some
consternation to say the least. I will be watching carefully!

The 68th AGM of the BIS ( 8th June 1998 ) reported that the audited Balance Sheet at 31st March 1998, totalling 62,450,174,630 gold
francs, one gold franc being equivalent to 0.29032258... grammes of
fine gold ( or US$ 1.94149..., converted at US$ 208 per ounce of fine
gold ) . ( That is a balance sheet totalling $US121 billion ) . Note, the
"conversion" is at the same value as last year, and is a lot more than
most other banks' book values for gold.

The AGM reported a net profit of 259,160,599 gold francs after
deduction of costs of administration - that is $US 503 million, or 4%.
What price of gold would cause the BIS to show a loss when the price
of gold falls below the book value? Perhaps 4% below $208 or $200.
Perhaps there is a lot more to their financial calculations than I know
about. However, I could easily imagine a major financial crisis
causing a short term spike down to $200 or lower. I do not believe
the BIS would sit back and let that continue. But it is the area under
the curve that is more important, or in this case the area of the spike,
which would be half the width multiplied by the depth. In other
words, a deeper spike down could only be sustained for a shorter
time. This I would expect to accompany massive selling on the
stock markets with perhaps a mania blow-off peak and crash. Have
we seen this yet? I don't know. I am looking for the final
jaw-dropping event. Then afterwards, an accelerating recovery in gold.
-Usual disclaimers apply.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:20 - ID#286230)
Your string of insults apparently is matched by your financial wisdom. Out of equities 2 years ago and into natural resources--my my hard not to be condescending when your critics show that level of mastery of the topic. Got to go for a while Dave--keep thinking those helpful happy thoughts.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:24 - ID#373284)
All, Namaste' and silver are rolling off the leaves here... please...please enjoy your lives...reduct your anger...palms up, run out and taste the sky...

Have a LOVELY day Ladies and Gentlemen...

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:34 - ID#288369)
@The ever so slightly larger than little Jimmy Rogers..........
At least Jimmy blasted the IMF into little bits yesterday on CNBC, pretty brave rhetoric....I'll concede that much. However, his brave "offering" has basis in a singular greedy motive. The statement that Russia would be better off, should it collapse, was more than a bit revealing....clearly showing his comfortable belief that speculative country and currency destruction is fair play. To me this is akin to taking ice cream from a kid, with the justification that "most of it was going to melt anyway." Jimmy wants power and money way too much....more than anything. Sadly, he has lost the gift. Yes, he is still quite small, as seen by my old eyes.

House full of outta' town college sophomore females, oh my!! I need to be watching them much closer than Kitco through Monday! It's my duty! ohmy! PartyTime!!! Y una mas Cuba Libre por usted? Si! ( Lini better keep one eye on me.....yes.....who needs viagra! ) Do da' funky chicken!....ooooooowwwwwwwww! studio.slightly.smaller.than.small.heehee.....Don't let your ice cream melt, ohmy! yumyum.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:36 - ID#269207)
tolerant1 if that
don' work, go kill somin'.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:37 - ID#434108)
in appreciation
I'd jst like to thank you all: kitco, tolerant1, Cherokee, J. Disney, Selby, Dave in CO, Delphi, sharefin, Earl, Erle, aurator, SDR's ...and too many more than i could recall in this immediate moment.
But, do we ever, very often, stop to receive the blessing that we have - that we might discourse/babble/quarrel and agree to disagree ...
on this web-site, in this international market-place of freedom of ideas discussed & discussing....
freedom insists on our participation
gold is the foundation for that freedom, in a freedom loving world

for several decades now
we have worshipped at the altar of security
in preference to freedom

freedom will be embraced
but only ... painfully
at a price
few want to pay/commit to/embrace

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:44 - ID#197211)
OLD GOLD or Farfel, Gold during Deflation.
The Global Market Strategist,, has just released a 20 page research document regading Gold during Deflation. The outcome points to Gold moving up, not down, during Deflation periods over the last 500 years. I would be happy to mail the report to either of you and you can share the information with the rest of the group. My e-mail address: In short, Gold is going to kick A*S.....Futhermore, the lower Gold goes now, the more pronounced the Deflation will be and the more prononced the rise of Gold will be in the Deflation period. I am posting from the West Coast USA.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:45 - ID#269207)
Tolerat1 I am having range chicken today, after the HUNT,
try it some time.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:49 - ID#373284)
The Island that is Long sends you a HUGE Salute...and a gulp...


(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:54 - ID#376309)
Answer to the following post
"Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 21:26 - OLD GOLD ( POG ) ID#242325:
Glenn: No problem here with your ultra bearish post. But I and many others would be interested to know why you are so certain that POG is going much lower. A forecast without a rationale is of little use to anybody."

1. ) Sentiment in gold is very low and can not get any lower.
FALSE!!! According to Market Vane weekly bullish consensus 30% of the advisors were bullish on gold. The lowest this number has been over the past 52 weeks is 16. The lowest it has been in 1998 is 18 which was at the low in January 98. If you look at the lastest readings for 33 markets which they cover 19 have 52 week lows of '5' or LESS!!! Sentiment in gold has never been ULTRA LOW! OVER 50% have been at or LESS THAN 5%. 4 more have had 52 week lows between 5 and 10. Infact of the 33 markets they cover only 5 have 52 week lows higher than GOLD!! The S&P, T-Bonds, T-Bills, Eurodollars, & Dollar Index.
2. ) The Funds have sold all they can.
False! The lastest open interest of COMEX gold was at 179,678. Open Interest of 200,000 or more has market turning points!
3. ) Who cares about COMEX the funds are heavily short in the OTC market!
FALSE!! There was a large long position taken on at the lows in Jan98 and they continued to support gold at 288.0 to 290.0 SPOT. We are now below that point and liquidation and new shorts are going to enter the OTC market. Just like $370 to $400 was a trading range well when we broke $370 we never looked back.
4. ) Gold has been going down for a long time in is due for a rally.
FALSE!! The rally we had from 277 to $315 spot was the largest rally in price and time that gold has had since the beggining of '96! The next wave down is only NOW beggining!
5. ) Supply overwelms demand by so much that the shorts will get crushed!
FALSE!!! According to the June98 issue of CRU Precious Metals Monitor SUPPLY of gold exceeded DEMAND for gold by 734.7 TONS in the first three months of this year!!!!
6. ) With gold mines under water and loosing money thye will have to shut down and that will change real quick!
FALSE!! During the first three months of '98 Gold mines mined 511.0 Tons of gold. This is very close to a record amount and 4% above 1st quarter '97! For all of '97 supply from mine output increased 2.7% over '96!!
7. ) Last but very important!! Spot gold closed on friday below the low of the previous 20 weeks. The previous 20 week low was 288.6 spot on Jan 10, 1998. Friday's close was 285.3 spot! A Techincal break-down on the weekly chart!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 11:56 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste'
The Island that is Long...says...Forever...may the Happy Life be Your's...

A HUGE GULP to YA!!!!!!!!!!


(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:01 - ID#290172)
Gold...simple, honest, A is GOOD it looks!
2. The second exception to the principle of "no compulsion" relates to the redenomination of debt. Article 8 ( 4 ) gives Member States the right, without requesting the consent of creditors, to take the necessary measures to redenominate outstanding general government debt that is denominated in their national currency unit and issued under their own law.

Other issuers ( private or public ) of securitised debt negotiable in the capital markets or of money market instruments receive, by virtue of Article 8 ( 4 ) a unilateral right to redenominate their outstanding debt once the general government of the Member State whose currency has been chosen has effectively redenominated at least part of its public
debt. Take the following example and assume that the three countries participate in monetary union: a Finnish issuer of a DM debt under Luxembourg law can redenominate his debt as soon as the German Government has started to redenominate its DM debt issued under German law. The Finnish issuer would not need to have the approval of its investors ( e.g. through bondholder meetings ) to carry out the redenomination. Nevertheless, in cases where parties have agreed if and how redenomination should take place, their agreement prevails. ) ." [Legal Framework for Use of the Euro, Bruxelles, 4.8.1997 II/088/97-EN
Got DM paper? Got international attorneys?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:08 - ID#376309)
Where I'm wrong
If we close ABOVE 292.7 in Aug Gold then I am wrong and missing something.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:08 - ID#290172)
hurry, Hurry, HURRY!

"Article 109 l ( 4 ) of the Treaty, which calls for the adoption OF "THE OTHER MEASURES NECESSARY FOR THE RAPID INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO", is however only available as a legal basis WHEN the participating Member States are known. Therefore the Commission, following an agreement reached at the informal Ecofin meeting in Dublin in September 1996, decided to split up the legal framework and to base those provisions for which legal certainty is most urgently needed on Article 235, while basing the other monetary law provisions on Article
109 l ( 4 ) ." [Legal Framework for Use of the Euro], Bruxelles, 4.8.1997 II/088/97-EN

COMMENT: One does wonder 'what other measures' and why 'RAPID'...
sounds, well...almost unseemly {:- )
Off to 'Saturday' a bit! bbl

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:26 - ID#258429)
Sharefin, Reify, 2000
First, 2000 in a general context:

When I mentioned nonsense, I mean there is a massive amount of impact afforded the 2000 front end players, the lawyers, the economy in general, and even the gold sellers and outfitters to a small extent. I feel that this is not money nor time well-spent, but an economist would disagree. The point is, we feel that the tremendous amount of money, subsequent business contact for future software sales, pipelined postponed real software additions, and lawyers earnings ( now and in 2000 ) just simply overwhelm any negatives of the real problems. This is the sense in which I use "nonsense", maybe similar to an overhyped equities market, but very real to persons who join late and then perhaps experience the bear. But we ( our company ) hedge as stated below. And indeed I hedge as stated in the personal section below.

Most of our work involves the legal rather than the technical aspect of the problem. That is, we are trying to insure that our clients are well-protected legally when the lawsuits arrive in post 2000. This is a natural focus, but made more so by the clients looking for some vague concept of "compliance" when they ( and we ) don't know how to identify a problem which is causing the "non-compliance". This legal aspect is responsible for much of the literature produced by us, by our clients, and I suspect by the other companies and their clients.

We consider that there is a chance for a financial panic, but we think that this panic is more likely to be spurred near term by, say, the eventual cascading disclosure concerning the cooked bank books than by 2000 anxiety. ( e. g. see once again the percentage of first quarter earnings shortfall due to funds set aside as bad loan reserves. )

We ( like many others ) think that any 2000 related panic will occur well short of the year, and that we will choose to have any USA panic in the warm springtime of next year. We also think that the financial side of any such USA panic will be contained by the end of the summer, simply because of the significant amount of IRA and 401k funds that the "middle class" will not remove because of the fixed 10%? and variable income penality. This group will however become highly vocal as others rush to withdraw many smaller accounts. The shuffle of this money within a 401k is normal. The transfer of IRA funds, say from one bank or brokerage to another, is welcomed. Assuming that any panic has been expended by 2000, we think that many inconveniences will arise. Will they be as locally annoying as, say, the current transport strike in Philadelphia? The massive snafu in France?

Now, Reify and others, on a personal note:

I am also just an ordinary person who wants to do well by my family. The thoughts below have been repeated by others, but I have not seen them in the context of the statements above. I can assure you that I feel the sense of helplessness when the airline cancels the flight and you can do nothing except sit your family at the airport because they say a plane might be ready shortly. This is a trivial example ( and maybe a common 2000 example ) , but we did sit there for 2 days once. The point is, we don't want to act disruptively foolish, but we don't want to be more foolish by not acting at all. To this end we have acquired:

numismatic and bullion silver and gold

cash in 10's and 5's

gas generator ( 240 volt ) and 300 hours gas ( 60 days ) , preserved

food, including rotating Slim-Fasts

well water

toilet paper, of course.

The simple idea is to handle a short crises and be able to help our neighbors. We will not be nor want to be prepared for defense or for anarchy.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:27 - ID#434108)
U.S. threatens retaliation of Belarus

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:29 - ID#255151)

Damn. I just HATE it when the bear case makes sense!: )
(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:33 - ID#434108)
burning fuse, burns even more - "Kosovo"
( from ) :
NATO ready to act on Kosovo
Officials hope military flights over Albania will persuade
Yugoslavia to end drive against civilians in Kosovo

COPENHAGEN, June 13  U.S. Defense Secretary
William Cohen said on Saturday no time had
been set for NATO air exercises in the Balkans
as a show of strength to Yugoslavia but he
expected plans to be completed in the next
several days.

"Flash point: Kosovo" - Complete Coverage

Military authorities
were working on
the details,
including which
countries would
take part in the air
exercise over
Albania and

DANISH FOREIGN Minister Niels Helveg Petersen
announced after meeting Cohen that Denmark would send
two F-16 fighter planes to participate in the exercise, but
also did not say when it would take place.
There has not been a specific time set, Cohen told
reporters after a separate meeting with Baltic and Nordic
Defense ministers on regional security, which also touched
on the international effort to halt the conflict in the Yugoslav
province of Kosovo.
He said military authorities were working on the details,
including which countries would take part in the air exercise
over Albania and Macedonia.
The exercise, which a NATO official in Brussels said
would not involve mock ground attacks, is the first of a
possible series of military actions NATO is working on to
persuade Yugoslavia to end its drive against civilians in
A diplomatic source at NATO headquarters in
Brussels said on Friday that the exercise would probably
take place on Sunday, if operational conditions permitted,
but there was no indication from U.S. officials that it would
be that soon.

Complete Coverage: Flashpoint Kosovo

World powers demanded on Friday that Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic end the bloody crackdown in
Kosovo immediately, but Russia voiced opposition to any
military intervention by NATO.
Representatives of the Contact Group on former
Yugoslavia issued a stern, four-point ultimatum to Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic, demanding he halt the armed
attacks on ethnic Albanians in the province of Kosovo.
Despite Russian reservations, NATO also moved ahead
with plans for a massive air exercise in the region next

Thousands of ethnic
Albanians in the
Kosovo capital,
Pristinia, demonstrate
on Wednesday against
the Serb crackdown in
the border region.

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook read
the groups statement, which said the world had learned
a lesson from the Bosnian war, and that the group hoped
Milosevic had learned a lesson, too.
Because the province is an internationally recognized
part of Serbia, military intervention would require U.N.
approval. But NATO officials have said they felt
empowered to go as far as air strikes without U.N. action.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
also made reference to military intervention. If it is
necessary to act, we will be ready, she said.

Despite agreeing to the four-point statement, Russias
Foreign Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, dissented when it
came to any future use of force against the Serb-dominated
Yugoslav government.
Primakov emphasized that next weeks meeting in
Moscow between Russian President Boris Yeltsin and
Milosevic would be key and possibly decisive.
Measures are being considered against Yugoslavia,
he said, referring to NATO contingency plans for air strikes
or even a military intervention. We are against these
measures, but at the same time, there will be an
exceptionally important meeting with Milosevic.
A young refugee from Smolic
in Yugoslavia's Kosovo
province stares out from a
truck Thursday en route to
In a veiled threat of military
intervention, the Contact Group
said any failure of Milosevic to
comply with the wishes of the
international community would
bring on further measures,
including those which may
require the authorization of a
U.N. Security Council
The Contact Group
members ultimatum comes as
thousands of Kosovo
Albanian refugees continue
to pour over the mountainous border to Albania. Many
have been wounded in Serb attacks, and are desperate to
find adequate medical care.
The joint document also requires him to submit to
international monitoring, aid refugees and begin a dialog with
Kosovo leaders.
More than 300 people have died in recent months in
the conflict between Serbian security forces and guerrillas
seeking independence for Kosovo.
Cohen said he had not ordered any special movement
of American planes or other equipment in connection with
the exercise, dubbed Operation Determined Falcon, which
is expected to be run out of Aviano Air Base in northern
He said it had not yet been decided whether the
exercise would take place before or after Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic meets President Boris Yeltsin
in Moscow on Monday and Tuesday.

MSNBCs Live Map of Kosovo

On Friday, Cohen said in Brussels Russia risked being
isolated by western states if it failed to lean on Milosevic to
halt his offensive and accept peace talks with the Kosovo
Albanians, who make up 90 percent of the provinces
Cohen also reiterated the U.S. position, which is not
shared by many NATO allies, that the alliance could act
militarily against Yugoslavia without getting authorization
from the United Nations Security Council.
Such authorization, which would probably be resisted
by the Serbs traditional ally Russia in the Security Council,
should not be required as a categorical imperative, Cohen
We believe it is desirable, but NATO should not be
required in each and every case to go to the United Nations
for its authority. It should be in a position to make its own
decisions, he said.
He added: NATO works by consensus. That means
that all the countries ultimately agree or there is no action.
But to subordinate NATOs concern for security ... to the
United Nations is inadvisable and not necessary, he said.
He also once again warned Kosovo Albanian guerrillas
fighting for independence not to take advantage of any
NATO operations to further their own cause, saying the
United States favored autonomy, but not independence for
the province.
Petersen told reporters: Serbias aggression in
Kosovo must be brought to an end as soon as possible.

Preston Mendenhall is MSNBCs International
Correspondent based in London. NBCs Tammy
Kupperman, Reuters and The Associated Press
contributed to this report.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:35 - ID#284255)
Charts to view???
M1 - M2 - M3 charts
Monetary charts
PPI charts

Some of these charts explain the perception that has become a reality.
Awesome growth period we have lived through.
The expansion has been phenominal.

Has that been the folly???
To much - to soon - to quickly.

Now is the fear - where to from here???

I don't have to think of the frenzy.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:37 - ID#269207)
big O u got a bicycle or horse too,
because there might be blockages on hiways or some other thing.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:37 - ID#244418)
GPS rollover may threaten banks and phone system
I recieved the June edition of Dr. Gary North's Remnant Review yesterday. In it he refers to two possible unexpected impacts of the GPS ( Global Positioning Satellite ) date rollover, due on August 22, 1999. On that date, the date calculating chips in it max out and roll back by 1024 weeks. Much of the GPS equipment built in recent years is incompatible with that rollover event. Banks and phones may be impacted.
"...the banking system is tied to the GPS. On August 22, 1999, if the money center banks haven't rewritten their software for the GPS rollback, every aspect of the coputer systems tied to the GPS clocks will go kaput. Yous ask: "Did the banks' technologists build in compensating coding to offset the GPS rollback?". I also ask. We can't get straight answers. Nobody with any authority is talking about this publicly."
"It may be worse. It is possible that GPS clocks are also being used to coordinate the split-second timing of signals of the phone system ( called PTTI, I believe ) . Here I resort to rumor. I have really tried to verify this, but I can't get clear answers that anyone will allow me to use publicly. But unofficially, I have been told that within 24 hours after the rollback of the GPS date, telephone signals will begin to degrade."

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:40 - ID#210235)
@China/Japan - interesting article in Forbes
After the yuan, the deluge

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:42 - ID#286253)
@Bitotis re Y2K

BigOtis, I agree that the Y2K thing has been overhyped ( I code for a living too ) but check this out: I ask a colleague what he thought about the whole thing; this guy knows his stuff and I respect his opinion ( his field is distributed data acquisition and control ) . He says to me: "I think it is a bit overblown, a bit overhyped." Then he added "But I am still taking all my money out on the 31st."

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:44 - ID#269207)
namaste' tolerant to you and yours, may they be long and fruitfull, and if not fruitfull then
then let them be long and eventfull.

commin outa shute #3 ridin' a billy goat,

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:44 - ID#434108)
sharefin's "charts to view?"
Hey Sharefin,
When I hit on your chat icons, nothing happens/ M1&2&3...etc.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:48 - ID#269207)
studio_R any of those sweet hearts like
finger likkin chikkin, we have lot's of free range chikken dis year and always plenty of likkin to go with it.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:51 - ID#210235)
After the Yuan, the Deluge, article in Forbes.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:53 - ID#373284)
THUNDER and soon lightning...
into the Harbor... I LIVE FOR these times... Have no FEAR...I do not...

On the Island that is Long...dancing with THUNDER Bolts... yesssssss!!!

I will return when I have been re-charged!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


My neighbors look on in disbelief...

the 11th element...


A good day to all of you...THIS is MY WISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! fulfilled.......................

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:53 - ID#269409)
@ Selby....DaveinCO
Selby, Your approach makes sense. Why respond to inanity? You seem to analyze these matters with on objective, rational, approach...something that unfortunately, cultic minded Zealots don't understand.

You're dealing with a rabid, "envious of class" socialist on one hand, and a single minded spin doctoring Zealot on the other. Give & take dialogue with "Idealogues" is an exercise in futility. To them, if the sky is blue and they decide that green fits their thesis better, than you must ignore the evidence of your own eyes and agree with them that the sky is Green dammit!

Now in all this mudslinging I have one question for ya, what do you see as intermediate and lonf term future for the price of white PM's??

PS... to DaveinCO...Since you are my self appointed work time watcher, and apparently my new boss, being all worried about folks on the Govt. payroll spending time on the internet and all...may I just note for you that,

a ) I'm working all day today, on my own time, as I do frequently, putting in a good 60 to 65 hours per week minimum of strrictly WORK related effort, and

b ) as I've said 5000 times, ( give or take a few ) I'm most assuredly NOT on any Govt. payroll, nor do we recieve any funding from the Govt., nor do we even sell to the Govt. ( with the exception of GOES weather satellites, a program that ended already ) . We are a commercial satellite manufacturer, selling almost exclusively to foreign buyers...., technology which is wholly and entirely unrelated to defense.

OK, my last word ( for today! ) on foodfight matters..back to my beloved spacecraft.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:54 - ID#284255)
They work fine for me.
Maybe too many people where trying to access them all at once.
Try again.

Big Otis.
Thank you.
Nothing like clear rational thoughts to help clear the air.

Amazing to think that the event could be viewed as a economical stimulus.
Perhaps the world won't need a war to create monetary stimulation.
I'd have to prefer a little chaos to a WW.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:58 - ID#269191)
So what should everyone do? Pile into U.S. stocks at 25 times earnings or
maybe the $ where bullish sentiment is over 90%? The problem with
your figures is nobody really knows what is going on with the gold market
and the analysts figures on supply and demand are at best educated
guesses. It seems to me that if you analyze gold as any other commodity
it is always in a state of oversupply i.e. supply exceeds the demand
for gold as a pure commodity. Therefore the direction of the gold
price is determined by investment demand. If you think investment
demand for gold will increase substantially, then you're a bull, if
not, you're a bear. Gold was in a state of oversupply in the 70's
but the price went up because investors more than compensated for the

(Sat Jun 13 1998 12:59 - ID#269207)
prometheus you act like your surprised,
But when they do do it, I bet you a one of the 400's they manage somehow to blame the rising sun. They do hate and they do not forget.......


(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:01 - ID#286230)
You never know when you might learn something. Certainly the last 24 hours dealing with factual errors, logical errors and childish behavior by some frequent posters points out the need to evaluate all views. I know nothing about the white metals except there is a lot to know about their industrial uses and sources that I have only a glimmer about.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:04 - ID#411163)
(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:07 - ID#434108)
a monetary cancer
seems to me

at this moment & post, in the temporary moment of time

that we have... and are experiencing

'monetary cancer'

it seems a firece yet feeble state of affairs

where men & women

and nations

and their blessed children

fumble on

in un-recognition and missed awareness or recognition

of what is befalling us

each & every one

it matters not...

if the Indonesian is now poverty stricken

while the So. Calif. Yuppie-child rides his new suv...


it matters not if the halls of secret agreements...

of Euros & natos, alliances east & west...

where nations united..... are not ......

what matters is this union - un-united

this collective party called earth

these partys named as nations

this world of reality

united in the reality of -


here-n lies the question


the answer

our earth

is our gift

a filter

that we might find our clarity, our renewal, our purity, our thanksgiving, our celebration, in our selves, individually, and in one another.

When we can lay down our swords, our ego-driven tempests, and our material treasures, for the sake of the life, and gift, and love - of one another ...

then we will have peace on this palnet

that we get on with the business at hand







(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:07 - ID#290172)
Sharefin-WOW! Thank you.

As for folly, fear, frenzy-Shakespeare makes pertinent observations in
( I think ) Troilus and Cressida--
"Blind fear, that seeing reason leads, finds safer footing than blind reason, stumbling without fear."
Think we're on the 'right side' of this one Sharefin! {:- ) )

Prometheus-Thanks to you too! Very interesting 'roadmaps'!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:07 - ID#411163)
300 hours of fuel is not enough for your needs. I have been there. The generator will run 12 hours a day. If you need heat it runs 24 hours a day

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:10 - ID#269207)
Just give it to me, then your problems will be simpler, as will their solutions. you might even live longer, yes just give your gold to me,
because then it won't matter, and if it doesn't matter I don't mind.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:14 - ID#347235)
Big Otis, All
I hesitate to take this stand because I have been accused of being too war
like. But you MUST be prepared to defend what is your or lose it.
There are many who will tkae it from you.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:15 - ID#347235)
Sorry fat fingers tkae =take

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:15 - ID#373403)
CPI and inflation since 1913

Notice the severe inflation and then deflation in the 1920's and 1930's. Not exactly like today but it gives the deflationary scenario some credibility.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:18 - ID#269409)
@ Selby
You said, "I know nothing about the white metals except there is a lot to know"

I say, "He who says "I do not know" has learned much. ( Paraphrased quote )

Like you, I'm here to learn and dialogue....have an excellent weekend!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:22 - ID#284255)
Winston - GPS
I read a report recently where they mentioned that some of the programs that run the GPS systems was Y2k non-compliant.
They were saying that GPS's may shut down on the August date and be kept down until the Y2k rollover date when they will crank up the programs again.

GPS's have a vast impact on our society.
I was the first fishermen in the Gulf of Carpentaria to have one installed back in 1987.
There was only a 2 hour window back then.
There is an inherent learning curve needed to operate a GPS system plus plotter.
Within a couple of years my catches overtook the rest of the fleets.
My computer skills aided me to rise to the top of my profession and it wasn't long before others followed with installation.
The whole style of the fishery ( prawns ) has changed dramatically since this period.
Expertise levels have changed plus grounds have been plundered to unbelievable levels.

Many fishing industry's globally have experienced these same effects.
Catches over the last five years have been sustained due to the efficiency of GPS's
Mainly because the fish had little chance of evasion but also because the last corners of the ocean were finally discovered, mapped and fished.
Many fishing grounds are not far off failure due to GPS systems.
Many fishermen could not sustain their tonnage's if GPS was taken away from them.
I know of this because I was an expert in the field.
Last year I was down in Brisbane at the CSIRO helping the scientists put together a topographical map of the seafloor.
The trawling grounds of the GOC have been 99% mapped - there are no new grounds.
You can now trawl from one end of the industry to the other without ripping a net.
Can dodge the rocks and reefs by a ten foot margin.
The grounds have now been decimated - every nook and cranny.

Be it that the fishing industry will lose its GPS for a period of time.
Catches will tumble - prices will soar.
Perhaps fisheries will recover somewhat.
I have always been an advocate for banning GPS's from fishing vessels.

Many other industry's must be highly reliant on GPS's.
I had read that banks use them to work out interest payments.

Society will notice the effects if they go down.
Even if only for a while.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:25 - ID#377196)
Moody's Monthly Dividend Changes (Omitted Dividends) 1983-1998...
This dividend trend is based on the dividend action of over 13,000 publicly held issues for the 3 months January through March 1983-1998.

Dividends omitted during 3 month period:-

1983 - 38

1984 - 24

1985 - 33

1986 - 46

1987 - 68

1988 - 49

1989 - 42

1990 - 56

1991 - 104

1992 - 47

1993 - 46

1994 - 79

1995 - 65

1996 - 182

1997 - 420

1998 - 478

You had to have paid a dividend in order to omit it.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:26 - ID#269207)
retired soldier I didn't hear or see anyone
stop the army when they cleared out the banks last time, might is still right and cunning will always be it's consort, just as the law is but a very thin glove over the fist of might.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:36 - ID#284255)
To repeat a previous post.
I would appreciate any other sites of similiar economic charts
A few hours and I can build a good web page.

That last one was hastily contrived and a few charts doubled up.

I am interested in creating a web page for all us Kitcoites.
Favourite charts and favourite sites etc.

Any suggestions please email au

If I get enough imput I will be able to build a comprehensive page
Covering the needs of goldbugs.
I have already received some input.
The more the merrier.
Those last three pages were created in a few hours.
Many more can be created.

Any set of charts - economic or equities can be arranged.
As well as links and urls.

Have been contemplating a page of pictures of coins and also gold nuggets and bars.

Food for thought???
(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:41 - ID#434108)
gold @ $250 - ?/ regardless; the Golden Cure for Deflation Conagion .. continues...
A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation Contagion

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his
fellow 'founding fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever
allow the banking system to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation; their children
will one day wake up homeless on the continent
their fathers conquered."

The world's financial and monetary systems may
be likened to a gigantic teetering circus-tent. An
when the tent finally collapses. It will not be the
center-post that goes first; it will be the side-posts;
and even the stakes."

The "stakes" are the Asian Tiger economies. The
"side-posts" are the most important trading
partners of the U.S. This includes the strategic
national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The
"center-post" is the U.S. economy, including its
stock markets.

The "tent" is the world-economy, built on a
mountain of artificial money and credit, created out
of thin air, by a politically engineered and
dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has
taken generations, to perfect this art and master
this tune, that plays to the drum-beat of billions of
dollars of false wealth created per week.

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to
counterfeit money, including by governments or

And now what: Gold going up ( -&/or down ) ?in the midst of
spreading Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the investment discussion boards, such asKitco site for a year or two, now.
There is gathering evidence that most of us are still deluded by, and caught-up
in the artificial Santa-Clause Economy built on 'the
BIG LIE': money and credit created out of nothing.
This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent "economic summer" that may last for
generations. All the while the masses
mis-perceptions grow, while the money-masters of
power ... in control of interest rates, and of
credit availability these instiutions we trust
our livehoods, our fortunes, our posterity these instituitons & individuals pretend to speak, and live, and
serve, on our behalf..., and so the volume of money &
credit...may live, under their control....but they have not control - nor ever wil have - contol of freedom yearning, serving,
working, creating, risking men & women all over this fair

Ultimately - sooner with less pain, later - with more: there will be an international, collective recognition of, and acceptance
to, an intrnationally trusted moneatary unit of exchane
and credit - gold.

Meanwhile, we will continue to experience a modern world
of ancient barbarism - where liquidity is the "hunt's-man"
who rules the day .... The powers that be, pretend to represent, but only rule w/ temporary appearances of 'control'
our livelihoods, and our sacred honor. They may continue to flood the world with whatever currency of the realm is most expedient to 'fix' upon, but in this suicidal process,
they thus become economic dictators in hidingpretending to
rule over the value of the money we earn, spend, invest,
and save for a rainy-day, retirement, or the kids'

Central banks have evolved with
their governments blessings, into a quiet yet awesome
club of collusion and unbridled power. They hold
in their hands the destinies of nations, and the fate
of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th century
banker of England said: "Give me control of a
nation's money, and I care not who makes the

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as
deflation intensifies. Just as it is very natural for
gold to go up in inflationary times, as well. That is
because the inflation and deflation are happening
to the paper currency, the artificial money of the
realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to
gold. And it is artificial, unbacked money and
credit, once it is spawned out across the world,
that ebbs and flows by the billions and trillions,
thus distorting and manipulating the economies of
the world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is
set in motion, the economies and countries grow
increasingly out of balance, and ultimately out of
control. And it almost always starts showing up in
an obvious way with with currency instability,
which was the root of the problem to begin with -
unreal currencies. Just ask the hundreds of
thousands of Asians who have just been laid off,
or reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion
grow, because we seem to live in enduringly good
times. And the BIG LIE  that artificial money
created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions
of higher learning, in the board rooms of our most
brilliant corporations, at the family dinner table
discussions of what we studied in school today,
and in the not so noble halls of government offices
across our fair land. What we have failed to
understand, or have forgotten, is that the basic
standard, the unit of a nation's money -- the
medium of exchange and store of value -- is the
foundation of, and the fundamental building block,
upon which, a nation's entire economy is built. It is
essential for this unit, this standard of money, to
be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by
any and every one.

Historically only gold money, or money and credit
units convertible to and backed by gold, have
endured as real money, immune to both inflation
and deflation. Gold is independent and free of
manipulation and control by any governmental
powers and special interests. John Adams' words
of 200 years ago are just as timely and important
today: "All the perplexities, confusions and
distresses in America arise, not from defects in the
Constitution or confederation, not from want of
honor or virtue, as much as from downright
ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted
currency, regardless of governments that rise and
fall, and economies that go through there natural,
moderate, non-manipulated cycles of economic
summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them,
and disciplines their lust for power and control,
along with their intimate banking friends. This
means that economies no longer remain in
balance, and ultimately, over-extended economic
summers, are followed by inevitable, and very
painful economic winters. All of this excess to
excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if
a gold standard money system were established
and honored, among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian
School of Economics put it this way: "The
eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact
that it makes the determination of the monetary
unit's purchasing power independent of the
measures of governments. It wrests from the
hands of the "economic czar" their most
redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is
furiously attacked by all those who expect they will
benefit by bounties from the seemingly
inexhaustible government purse." ( The truth and
wisdom from this master-teacher of true
economics, might help us better understand why
there has been so much media coverage of
reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming
credit-creation world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden
international economy with careening markets and
collapsing paper currencies. This debt-ridden,
artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly
inflated values. World-wide, property values are
beginning to feel the effects of spreading deflation.
The recent deflationary free-fall in Hong Kong
property values, will likely spread next to Japan
and China. The deflationary world economy is like
a Titanic, and their are never going to be enough
IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy
beginning to mire in debt and growing deflationary
momentum, is the overcapacity of industrial and
technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and
now, the world is not only awash in red-ink, but
also in a glut of goods and services that most
people don't want, and fewer and fewer can really
afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the
recipe for spreading, world-wide deflation, with
ominous implications. When desperate Asian
nations want to import new cars to sell here at half
last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers
and trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons
of gold: gold unassailable, real money, and gold as
a haven of capital preservation in times of
economic crisis and currency turmoil. We got
ourselves into this mess by allowing our
governments and special interests to divorce our
money from gold backing and convertibility. At one
time, our currency was originally as good as gold,
a virtual receipt for real money. It was even
printed, right there on each and every U.S. piece
of currency: "payable to the bearer on demand in
gold". It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit
instruments at certain times, just as inflation does
at other times, because they can be controlled and
manipulated by the powers that be. Naturally
stable economies, based on real money, are
immune to inflation and deflation, and the powers
that be -- their hands are tied, by the immunity of,
and independence of gold. I have an early 1930s'
chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area
entitled: "What Makes the U.S. Economy
Tickand Why it is a Ticking Time-Bomb." The
economy's turned out to have a longer fuse than
I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse
is, indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932
Homestake Mining appreciated approximately
500% while the Dow was crashing in wave after
deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit
themsort of the way growing numbers of
people are feeling in Asia. And the "Asian
Contagion" is spreading, regardless of our
self-absorbed, insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in
( confiscated ) the American people's gold in the
early '30s - at the old price at about $20/oz.; and
then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this
no doubt helped the HM price along its bull market
way. But I wouldn't wait for another confiscation, or
another FDR. The new baby bull market in gold is
here, now. And before its over, there's going to be
quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of
the '80s & '90s, will not be able to get out of the
same 'sell' door at the same time; it could get very
messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing
cycle runs its course, there will be a new dawn,
and new day. The peoples of the nations of the
world, their governments and bankers included,
will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and
gold-defined credit instruments. These will be the
basic monetary building-blocks, the life-giving
ingredients -- like a healthy, renewed, purified
economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies.
This will come, in a new millennium of economic
nation building, in which a thriving world economy
will create and produce enough for all peoples,

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color,
have an equal opportunity to contribute; and enjoy
the fruits of their work, and their entrepreneurial
talents. May we all learn to live in a new world, in a
cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of
the human soul, the inherent freedom of the
human spirit, and the sanctity of human life.

David Blair Macrory/

2 February 1998

Back to Gold

Copyright  1997 & 1998 vronsky and westerman

Bob M
(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:42 - ID#259251)
Deflation is imminent
I have been in the deflation camp for over a year now in this forum and it is enevitable. The writing is all over the wall..excessive debt worldwide in every category of human financial affairs..and the problem is that there is always someone out there willing to work the 70s the Japanese, the 80s the other Asian economies, the 90s China..then comes Africa..woe to those on top of the debt pyramid ( ie-US and Europe, Japan ) ..all debt is based on earning more money in the future to pay back old debt plus interest..when you look around the industrialized nations..wages for the majority are is improving only through supplementing debt to maintain a constant lifestyle...woe to those who own stocks and bonds and also gold to some degree..if you think your going to make money owning gold by its price rising, guess will NEVER see $800 gold in this will increase in purchasing power, but only in the negative sense as it will not deflate as rapidly as other assets...look at the face value on an Eagle..$50..someday it will trade for that..but the beauty of it is it can never trade for less then $50 US dollars as long as the nation is intact..beware the writing on the wall..prepare for a deflation that will devestate the world financial debt system

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:43 - ID#413195)
Wanted: Meteor Fragments
Or how a scorched chunk of rock and iron can be worth its weight in gold:

Hey, don't laugh! There are more meteorites lying at your feet than nuggets of gold. And 'ya don't have to go to Arizona to find 'em, either.

Now get out there and start doin' some REAL prospectin'!

Ron ( in sack-o-tomatoes-'n-meteorites )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:47 - ID#258429)
Rack, Thank you
Refering to how much use of a generator.

We tested with the generator, albeit only one day. Two hours for one run and one hour each for two runs, morning and late afternoon, a total of four hours. We pump and store a large amount of water under air pressure and used sparingly, and we even had hot water. We have a wood stove which we think will be adequet in our climate and much wood. We did not test through the night but we presume that we would not need electric lights nor other appliances. Is this wrong? I appreciate your experience and I therefore must be missing something that will pop up and we have not anticipated in our limited test.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 13:48 - ID#269207)
gold fevr ain't
gettin there half the fun?????????

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:03 - ID#45173)
Selby: You may be right about gold dropping to the cost of production
before rising, and that cost may be around $250. It sure looks that way. I'm betting we'll see a fairly sudden and disconcerting end to a long period of economic and political stability starting in 1999, and gold is my insurance policy against such an event. I also have a fair amount of cash to cover the possibility that the Fed, already demonstrating that the economy is running out of its control, allows deflation to hit us from Asia. The gold will also help me if the Fed makes a move that releases the inflation beast that appears to be lurking under the M3 numbers. What's your philosophy?
(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:05 - ID#434108)
Dave & 'gettin there' 's fun
what fun is gettin there
when it is on the lives sacrificed
in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Africa

what fun is it
this process
if we do not stop it

what fun is there....
if we do not confront our leaders, representatives, bankers,
eco's, powers that be

what oceans of wealth might we inherit
on the next gold bull
if are not enriched
in this moment

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:10 - ID#215208)
An interesting week, but contrary to the general dispair expressed on Kitco, I see some very positive signs.

Gold - The little pop to 300 broke the line of declining highs. Yes, it did drop right back down, but I see no signs that it is about to break through the bottom of this channel. Just the opposite. I think it has bounced along the bottom of this channel long enough, and is ready to test the top again.

Silver - The drop last week seemed to surprise some folks. Not that I predicted it, but since I was out of silver, it didn't send fear coursing through my veins. In looking at silver's action relative to the other metals I see this drop as extremely bullish for silver. With all the other metals at the bottoms of their channels, silver stopped ( so far ) well above its lows. I think the low associated with this drop will define the channel bottom. I show the new channel defined by Friday's London fix. Seems a bit too steep to me, so perhaps we will see a bit more decline on Monday, but only a few cents. Maybe not. So I finally bought back into silver on Friday. Not as low an entry price as some of you folks who picked it up on the last drop below 5.10. However, it is low enough for me, and I am now much more confident that we are now in a new silver bull. And a steep one at that! Gooo silver!

Platinum - This is a first! I am boldly proposing a new channel based on one data point! Foolish? Maybe. But here's the logic. First, PL is close to the low of December '97. Second, its been bouncing along the channel bottom long enough. Third, it is extremely unlikely that the PL channel will cross the up-trend line for palladium. So it has to turn up at some point. Since I expect a bounce in both silver and gold, this would be as good a time as any. As to the slope and channel width, I just copied historical action. This is good enough for now, and can be fine tuned later. Yes, I could be wrong by a day or two. Maybe PL will drop a few more dollars. Maybe not. So I doubled my position in PL yesterday. OK EB, now I'm ready. Go platinum!!! One word of caution! Some day PA must break form its long established upward trend line. Maybe not this year. Maybe so. If it does in the very near term, PL may continue in its current downward-trending channel. A true bummer if it happens.

Palladium - Seems to be following historical performance. Has dropped back to its long-standing up-trend line, and is generally following it. Is there a hint that its direction may be changing? Maybe, as indicated by the dotted line, but so far not enough to be concerned. Much more concerning is the recent downtrend of platinum. Its not logical that these two should me moving in different directions. Perhaps the shortage of PA and the international panic associated with it, is masking some fundamental change, that is more accurately reflected in platinum. Watch closely for signs.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:14 - ID#252127)

FIRSTLY; Japan didn't squander $20 billion selling US dollars for Yen, they just lost the difference between
yen 1.30 then and what the yen is today. A lose yes, but detainly not the end of the world disaster reputed by the obidient US media.

If I were Japan here's what I'd do, I'd form a hush/hush contractural agreement with Indonesia, Korea, Maylasia, Signapore, the Philipines and other interested SEA parties.

Japan would give each a $5 billion dollar no interst loan, principal to be repaid over ten years.

Each country would use that money to buy gold to improve its international financial image.

To keep these counties from selling, this gold would be held in Japan for the SEA CB's for safe keeping until the loans were paid.

This should increase the value of SEA currencies and their commodities, while allowing their trade to expand; the selling ( fall ) of the dollar would help stem the rise in the US balance of payments and be beneficial to the US people.........INCLUDING THE BELIEVERS OF REAL MONEY AND REAL JUSTICE.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:17 - ID#434108)
a window into our future

Banks began raising interest rates on fixed-rate home loans yesterday as the
dollar crisis widened with job figures signalling a general economic slowdown.

The jobless rate rose above 8 per cent in May, hitting 8.1 per cent or 754,000,
after a month below the psychological barrier in April, at 7.9 per cent.

In a worrying sign that employers are cutting working hours or preparing to lay
off more workers, many were switched from full-time to part-time work.

Full-time employment fell 44,000 in May, after seasonal adjustment, while
part-time jobs rose 39,300, the Bureau of Statistics reported.

Many economists expected the dole queues to lengthen in line with a
slowdown in growth.

The economy is entering a lengthy malaise as the full brunt of the Asian crisis is
yet to hit, coupled with the collapsing dollar, which has led to higher money
market interest rates.

The higher market rates prompted the ANZ, St George and RAMS to
increase rates on fixed mortgages by up to 0.6 percentage points. Only St
George announced a commensurate increase in deposit rates.

Analysts said other lenders were likely to follow.

Fixed home and personal lending rates are set from market interest rates. Since
late last week, market rates have jumped by more than 0.5 percentage points
in response to the plunging dollar.

The Reserve Bank is now under pressure to support the dollar by raising
official interest rates, which would flow on to variable lending rates.

The dollar performed well yesterday, analysts said, rising US0.54c to
US59.17c. But they warned it was not out of danger.

The head of foreign exchange for SBC Warburg, Mr John Radinoff, said: "It's
only temporary relief ... and I think it could still go below US57c."

Higher lending rates did little to help confidence in the Australian economy.
Fears about growth stalling locally and in Asia pushed the sharemarket to a
five-month low.

The All Ordinaries index finished at 2558.7 points, 34.2 points or 1.3 per cent
lower than Wednesday's close. Share prices hit hardest included the
Commonwealth Bank, which fell 33c to $17.40, and News Corp, down 35c
to $9.79. Telstra shares finished 5c lower at $3.58 while BHP's ended the day
at $13.35, 9c lower.

Fears that the failing Japanese economy may trigger a new wave of turmoil hit
regional sharemarkets. In Tokyo, the Nikkei fell by 2.1 per cent, the Hang
Seng index in Hong Kong was down 1.1 per cent while the New Zealand
sharemarket dropped 2.8 per cent.

The yen fell to a seven-year low of 142.10 to the US dollar and was trading
last night around 141.58.

On Wednesday night, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Dr Alan
Greenspan, said strong growth in the US economy was expected to slow,
keeping inflationary pressures in check.

But he warned that the good times may not last, indicating a possible interest
rate rise, particularly if wages rose.

The chief economist at Salomon Smith Barney, Mr Paul Brennan, said this
suggested US interest rates would not be raised for at least three months.

A rise in US rates would put further pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift
Australian rates to protect the country from a flight of investment funds and a
further run on the dollar.

( a window, into our/the future )

( excerpted from )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:28 - ID#16255)
@BigOtis@EJ, There may be some confusion here...
In my post dated Sat. June13, 1998 01:16, I was looking for a basis
to BigOtis's statement that Y2K is "complete nonsense". EJ: I am not
the one who made comments about the "programmers conspirecy".BigOtis did!
If you understand logic, then I have made a valid request to BigOtis
to "prove" his statement that "Y2K is complete nonsense" being that he
( BigOtis ) asserted the positive, and the burden of proof relies soley
on his shoulders.
Now, if that was Just BigOtis's opinion, then my request for proof would
be without merit. However, he never stated that it was his opinion.

I have no idea what y2k will bring, but to say its "complete nonsense"
requires some validation.

Best regards, O.L.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:31 - ID#227168)
Language for me shorts
The defenders of Gold seem to be excellent writers ---The bears like myself weel yoou kno wee arl outssmarrted Away foor soma educcattin .

(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:50 - ID#270447)
Bob M and Deflation
Deflation on a scale you envision? Forget it. You'll never see it. As Milton Friedman and other economists have often stated; deflation is the simplest monetary condition to prevent. All you have to do is print money, and that's exactly what the politicians will do. Guess what else... the voters will be screaming for it. As prices fall and unemployment increases in the scenario you envision, voters will be screaming at Washington "DO SOMETHING OR YOU'RE GONE". Guess what? They'll do something. The $215 billion highway spending bill, loaded with billions in pork, that was just passed will be the tip of the iceberg if this country ever sees severe deflation. The conditions that are now unfolding in Japan would mean political suicide here if allowed to continue for long. Throughout the history of the world, politicians have always turned to currency devaluation; i.e., inflation, to bale themselves out of debt. By that, I don't mean the US will announce a currency devaluation, they will simply do what they have been doing for 60 years... print whatever amounts of money are necessary to paper over the problem, which is de facto currency devaluation. Monetary inflation is not rising prices, it is the value of the dollar declining.

This counry has experienced deflation and jobs lost on a massive scale in the 30s; they will not tolerate those conditions again from any politician. Greenspan would be the most reviled man in the country for his tight money policies. AND he would be fired. On the other hand, we have never experienced the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in the 20s, which is why Germany errs on the side of tight money. The US will choose inflation rather than deflation until it realizes the end result of both extremes are the same. In my opinion, any economic collapse in the US will happen via hyper-inflation, not deflation.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:52 - ID#434108)
Rubin's latest version of ... 'the collapsing tent' ....
( from )
Rubin's concerned about

Treasury secretary again urges Tokyo
to tackle banking difficulties

June 12, 1998: 3:58 p.m. ET

CNNfn special
report: Yen in

Japan's Ministry
of Finance

CNNfn Asia
Pacific currencies

More related
MOBILE, Ala. ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin said on Friday the U.S. administration
was concerned about the weak level of the Japanese
yen and urged Tokyo once again to address
mounting problems in its banking sector.
Addressing a gathering at the Chamber of
Commerce here, Rubin also said Japanese gross
domestic product figures released earlier on Friday,
which confirmed the world's second largest economy
had entered a recession, were "worse than
expected." The Japanese economy shrank at an
annual rate of 5.3 percent in January to March from
the previous quarter.
"Their currency is exceedingly weak -- we are
very concerned about that. It is affecting Asia, and
Asia is affecting Russia," Rubin said.
Speaking to reporters after delivering his remarks,
Rubin reiterated he was not in principle opposed to
intervening in foreign exchange markets to bolster the
value of the yen.
"I am not opposed to intervention . . . I'm not
unopposed either," he said. "We are very concerned
about the weakness in Japan's economy. The fiscal
stimulus is not in place. It is a great concern."
Rubin traced Japan's problems in part to a sharp
rise in asset prices in the late 1980s. "The Japanese
stock exchange was at 39,000 ( points ) at its peak.
It's now at 15,000 -- that gives you some idea of
how much air there was in that asset bubble," he
"They need to have a clear fiscal policy and they
are well underway to doing that now," Rubin noted.
"They need to deal with very serious issues in the
financial sector, in the banking sector. They need to
open markets and deregulate, and the fact that they
have not done these things is the reason their
economy is in recession."
Rubin's concerned about

Treasury secretary again urges Tokyo
to tackle banking difficulties

June 12, 1998: 3:58 p.m. ET

CNNfn special
report: Yen in

Japan's Ministry
of Finance

CNNfn Asia
Pacific currencies

More related
MOBILE, Ala. ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin said on Friday the U.S. administration
was concerned about the weak level of the Japanese
yen and urged Tokyo once again to address
mounting problems in its banking sector.
Addressing a gathering at the Chamber of
Commerce here, Rubin also said Japanese gross
domestic product figures released earlier on Friday,
which confirmed the world's second largest economy
had entered a recession, were "worse than
expected." The Japanese economy shrank at an
annual rate of 5.3 percent in January to March from
the previous quarter.
"Their currency is exceedingly weak -- we are
very concerned about that. It is affecting Asia, and
Asia is affecting Russia," Rubin said.
Speaking to reporters after delivering his remarks,
Rubin reiterated he was not in principle opposed to
intervening in foreign exchange markets to bolster the
value of the yen.
"I am not opposed to intervention . . . I'm not
unopposed either," he said. "We are very concerned
about the weakness in Japan's economy. The fiscal
stimulus is not in place. It is a great concern."
Rubin traced Japan's problems in part to a sharp
rise in asset prices in the late 1980s. "The Japanese
stock exchange was at 39,000 ( points ) at its peak.
It's now at 15,000 -- that gives you some idea of
how much air there was in that asset bubble," he
"They need to have a clear fiscal policy and they
are well underway to doing that now," Rubin noted.
"They need to deal with very serious issues in the
financial sector, in the banking sector. They need to
open markets and deregulate, and the fact that they
have not done these things is the reason their
economy is in recession."

Rubin's concerned about

Treasury secretary again urges Tokyo
to tackle banking difficulties

June 12, 1998: 3:58 p.m. ET

CNNfn special
report: Yen in

Japan's Ministry
of Finance

CNNfn Asia
Pacific currencies

More related
MOBILE, Ala. ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin said on Friday the U.S. administration
was concerned about the weak level of the Japanese
yen and urged Tokyo once again to address
mounting problems in its banking sector.
Addressing a gathering at the Chamber of
Commerce here, Rubin also said Japanese gross
domestic product figures released earlier on Friday,
which confirmed the world's second largest economy
had entered a recession, were "worse than
expected." The Japanese economy shrank at an
annual rate of 5.3 percent in January to March from
the previous quarter.
"Their currency is exceedingly weak -- we are
very concerned about that. It is affecting Asia, and
Asia is affecting Russia," Rubin said.
Speaking to reporters after delivering his remarks,
Rubin reiterated he was not in principle opposed to
intervening in foreign exchange markets to bolster the
value of the yen.
"I am not opposed to intervention . . . I'm not
unopposed either," he said. "We are very concerned
about the weakness in Japan's economy. The fiscal
stimulus is not in place. It is a great concern."
Rubin traced Japan's problems in part to a sharp
rise in asset prices in the late 1980s. "The Japanese
stock exchange was at 39,000 ( points ) at its peak.
It's now at 15,000 -- that gives you some idea of
how much air there was in that asset bubble," he
"They need to have a clear fiscal policy and they
are well underway to doing that now," Rubin noted.
"They need to deal with very serious issues in the
financial sector, in the banking sector. They need to
open markets and deregulate, and the fact that they
have not done these things is the reason their
economy is in recession."

home | economy | hot stories | contents | search | stock quotes | help

Copyright 1998 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

home | economy | hot stories | contents | search | stock quotes | help

Copyright 1998 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

home | economy | hot stories | contents | search | stock quotes | help

Copyright 1998 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 14:59 - ID#434108)
the collapsing tent
from my kitco post of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:05 - ID#258429)
Open-Loop Please see 12:26 today
For overview

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:33 - ID#45173)
Drifter: The Fed pumped out cash and dropped interest rates in an attempt
to stop deflation in the early 1930s, but to no avail. Look at M3 today. It's rise since 1995 is asymptotic. How can it go higher? Drop interest rates? That only works before you are in a deflationary cycle, not after. Even then it works only if there is not already too much debt in the economy. Japan's rates are at .5% and deflation continues to accelerate.

Inflation can be regulated by the government, but not deflation. As Gollum has pointed out, deflation is the economic aircraft going into a stall. The controls that worked when it was moving forward no longer work.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:35 - ID#45173)
@Open-Loop & BigOtis: oops. Seems I mixed you guys up.
Sorry about that.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:37 - ID#433172)
Big Otis
I and my family ( 4 ) lived comfortably with a small honda generator ( 500 watts ) for 3 years. Then we got a Yamaha 850 watt, we used it for many years,eventually I bought 2 more of these, use little gas and are reliable. Use little gas is the key to gas driven generators, and charging a couple of 8d lead batteries whenever it's running in conjunction with a couple of cheap 300-500 watt inverters is the key to peace. A whole outfit should cost no more than $1000 new. We never ran it longer than 2 hours a day until we got a computer, then we went up to six. T.V. ac-dc. We had a large 4000 watt generator for a little while, until I put gas into it a few times, then out the door.

If our planning on supplying an electric stove, washer -dryer, upstairs and downstairs lights, SAB, thats outside my experience, probably go diesel.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:43 - ID#286249)
oh we go?
Bombs detonated before Clinton arrival

Copyright 1998 by United Press International ( via ClariNet ) / Sat, 13 Jun 1998 6:53:18 PDT

EUGENE, Ore., June 13 ( UPI ) -- Just hours before President Clinton's visit with the victims of last month's Thurston Middle School
shooting spree in Springfield, Ore., Eugene police detonated two bombs in a culvert at nearby Eugene airport, where Air Force One
is scheduled to land.

The devices, found a quarter mile from the main terminal after a tip from an anonymous caller at 3 pm yesterday, were set off at 7 pm
last night after all nearby buildings were evacuated.

The same caller had told police bombs had been planted at Eugene Greyhound Bus terminal, but an evacuation and seven-hour
search turned up nothing.

Eugene police say they cannot be sure the incident is linked to Clinton's visit, and that the FBI has taken over the investigation.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:51 - ID#286249)
Here's a remarkably informative site (if your interested in energy)

A lil grin at the url too...{:- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:55 - ID#65118)
@BigOtis. Thanks for the clarification! And comment on farfel...
I totally missed your 12:26 as I swept thru the postings over my morning coffee. My apologies. Just saw EJ's comment and off I went.
On farfel: I totally enjoy reading his posts and appreciate his point
of view ( and desperatly hope he is right :- ) ) . But he tends to state things in the "absolute" sense at times. This is why I think he and RJ
butt heads like they do.If he would consistently state that what he says
are his "opinions and beliefs", he would draw much less scrutiny from
the oppisite flank. IMHO!

Again, welcome to the group and I look forward to your insight!

Best regards, O.L.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 15:56 - ID#26793)
There is a story in the issue out today that is very negative on gold. Does anyone have access to the site?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:02 - ID#26793)
Chronology of the Asian financial crisis
(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:07 - ID#434108)
for Drifter, Bob &
Not too many years ago, you could look in a dictionary, even Webster's, and find a definition of 'inflation' like this: "an increase in the volume of money and credit".

In your recent post you shared, in part:

"...Monetary inflation is not rising prices, it is the value of the dollar declining."

The vlaue of the dollar - declining ( -or any currency ) ...and 'rising prices' ... are one in the same thing ... they are mirrors of each other -- simultaneous realities, as it were -- flip-sides of the same coin.

Inflation, is their cause; they -- declining currency values & rising prices -- are a result of 'inflation' - the increase of money &


Not withstanding this, there is a reality in the world of money

and credit, commerce, trade, & enterprise - in the free markets of the world - that may be defined as "the velocity of money" -- that is, the 'turnover - rate of use - of money. The Bank Credit Analysts keeps records & charts on this very human phenomenon of money. From 25 years ago I recall their chart "Velocity of Demand Deposots/NY Banks".

There is on old saying: "you cannot push on a string". In other words, the government powers that be ( -for the moment ) can print

all the currency they wish, and make available all the credit

- cheap or dear - that they may feel is warranted, via interest rate manipulation.

But they cannot, in the final analysis of it all - force -


NATURE/s ) people, to buy, spend, consume ..with their phoney money & credit ..... whether on the shores & in the factories of Indonesian islands, or upon the farming plains of America's mid-west, or the expanses of China's interior, or Africa's teeming life, or Europe's industry, or So. America's music, or Asia's mystery..... in all lands & seas, among all peoples...there will rise a rising tide of refusal - "No more!" they/we will say - first to themselves & one another, then to their merchant down the street, and their banker, and their employer, or employees...

the institutions of money & credit in current civilization, are based on a fractional reserve, centralized banking stystem...that ultimately - depends on the "will" of the people to support it, and use it.

The central banks of the Group of 7, or 8, or 8 trillion, can legislate all they want, and create all the cheap credit and wortheless currency they want....but, in the last analysis, if people are not willing to use it, invest it, spend it, exchange it ....then all the mountains and floods of more money - will not create 'inflation'.

Deflation is inevitable, as a course in the natural law of things, when freedom-based peoples, are tired of chasing the carrot at the end of the they've been hypnotized, over decades, into selling their souls for.

The central banks can create all the U.S. dollars, Euros, D-Marks, Centavo's, Rupiahs, etc. ad infinitum.... - just so much more - pushing on a string - .

But deflation will come upon us all, because it is inevitable.

And it will be the best of times, and the worst.

Sincerely yours,

David Blair Macrory

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:10 - ID#65118)
George_A. a question for you on your generator.
Was your honda a model ev500? if so do you have a manuel for it?
Also I gathered that these are your primary source of power.
I picked up an ev500 6 months ago at a yard sale and it runs
well and seems to have had very little use. The fuel tank is in the
"tank strippers" getting that tan coating cleaned out of it.
what do you estimate the hours you put on your honda before it
bit the dust? also how did it die?
Your comments would be greatly appreciated.

Best regards, O.L.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:12 - ID#307360)
Donald - Barron's - 2nd last paragraph is most important message

Last week gold lost another 2%, or more than $6, after the new European Central Bank announced it will hold no more than 15% of its reserves of about $55 billion in gold when it takes over European monetary policy in January. That was at the low end of the market's expectations; some estimates of gold's portion of ECB reserves ran as high as 30%. Gold prices have declined by over $20 in the past six weeks, with the active August contract settling Friday at $287.30 an ounce.

The immediate future is no brighter. No one knows what will happen to, and who has control over, the remaining 12,000 tons of gold -- roughly equal to five years' mine production -- held by the 11 member participants in European economic and monetary union that may be excluded from the ECB's reserves.

So, who wants to own gold these days? Even the people in the business of being long gold, namely the gold mutual funds, are moving away from the industry. In fact, many gold funds' top stock holdings today are not gold companies at all.

The funds have been burned by bad performance. The average gold fund is down over 33% for 12 months through the end of the first quarter in 1998. Declining assets have resulted not only from sub-par returns, but also from redemptions.

Kjeld Thygesen, manager of the Midas Fund, has seen his assets cut in half, to $120 million from $230 million in 1996, due to poor performance. His fund's negative return was nearly 60% last year.

Thygesen recently decided to boost his cash holdings to 10% of the fund's assets and has actually shifted the weighting of the stocks in his portfolio so that 10% of the fund is not even in gold stocks. Some of his holdings: Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Asarco, the copper company, and Mueller Industries, which manufactures fabricated steel products.

"These companies are not directly correlated to metal prices," Thygesen says. "On occasion, we've been in other areas before, but never like this."

Caesar Bryan at the Gabelli Gold Fund can empathize. He's seen his performance, and thus his fund's assets, dwindle, too. His fund's assets now stand at just $14 million after returns of nearly minus 60% last year.

His major holdings are also not in gold mining. They include Stillwater Mining, a platinum and palladium play, and two royalty companies, Euro-Nevada and Franco-Nevada, which collect an annuity-like return on leases of gold properties.

"We have no credibility left," says Bryan. "I thought gold could have bottomed a long time ago."

Indeed, not only have the gold-fund managers lost credibility, but these moves show their desperation. By shunning their own sector of the market, these gold funds have become market timers. Should gold rally, they may now underperform.

But at least the Midas and Gabelli funds are still in business. Many others have closed or merged. Morgan Stanley no longer has an institutional gold fund. Blanchard merged its fund with Evergreen and SoGen's Gold Fund manager is talking of closing his fund too.

Even worse, at Lexington Strategic, with assets over $100 million, no one is currently running the company's three gold funds. The manager resigned and the company hasn't found a replacement.

Investors in Lexington's funds should know that their traders have been told simply to hold the gold funds' positions and not to do anything while the company decides their fate, in part because it may close at least one fund. The South African gold fund simply does not have enough companies left in its universe to be diversified anymore because below-breakeven gold prices have forced consolidation among South African firms.

Even companies known for their bullish bias on gold, like Friedberg Mercantile Group, are not mentioning their gold funds to potential investors who inquire about the company's fund selection. "No one wants to hear about gold," says Friedberg trader Danny Gordon. "We don't even discuss the funds. We can't market them. We can't even keep the minimum number of investors required to make it eligible for retirement plans anymore."

A contrarian might see this as a bullish sign for gold, but the real message may be about the mutual-fund industry. If gold funds are closing, merging and can't be marketed in a bear market, what may happen to the fund industry when the stock market as a whole turns down?

And does that mean that fund companies like T. Rowe Price or Franklin Resources don't deserve their above-market price-to-earnings multiples, but should trade more like the shares of cyclical stocks? Recent U.S. history aside, stock markets are cyclical. Just look at Japan. And bond funds, compared to their assets, are less profitable for mutual-fund companies than stock funds.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:29 - ID#256326)
US Stocks
After recovering from vacation and data base failures, I have posted a new short piece on the US stock market at my site.
I will try to post something intelligent on gold later, but truth to tell, I am as baffled on gold as I have ever been.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:35 - ID#256326)
Drifter's post
Amen, brother. Deflation here is not in the cards.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:37 - ID#287186)
A MINT could be made from Silver & Gold coinage
Several billion dollars per year in seignorage may be trivial for the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc. BUT it would cover a quarter of New Zealand's national budget. see my posts at Bart's new sanitized K2.
Aurator - are you listening? New Zealand would be a great choice for this world standard in Gold & Silver money since it is supposed to fare well during the coming world changes according to G.M. Scallion. FWIW ;- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:47 - ID#162241)
Jack ... Something Drastic
Agree with you... heres my thoughts as of yesterday aft.

ORCA__A ( BOJ ..... 27,000 tonnes ) ID#231337:
Copyright  1998 ORCA__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If I remember, that's about 2x the oz. of Gold in all of Europe.

So... lets say, a new currency is hatched ( Japan, Korea, Indonesia, etc plus open an invite to China ) ; lets back it at
27,000 tonnes, Japan picking up 1/2, and the others the rest, or if China comes in, a different split; lets call it the
SEACA ( South East Asia Currency Accord ) ; offer it up as payment for oil... all of that will make the average political
heatseaker in DC, London, Paris, etc take notice, and settle some long term and short term scores.

Unfortunately in the short run, that would also leave the bankers in Japan somewhat short of breath, ( as well as the
bankers in USA an the West in general ) but would sure as hell make the point that SEA ( SEACA ) will start to
control their own destiny.

Perhaps this would take more 'balls' than has been demonstrated in the past. BUT, perhaps some of the 3000 - 4000
tonnes that has changed hands in the last year is sitting in some secure place ready to be enabled. Perhaps they
have even secured some delivery in terms of paper promises.

To me that says... Gold through the ceiling.....SEA currencies up.... solvency up,,, $$ down ( big Time ) .. return on
even a little Gold sold to meet new demand at that point, would justify the journey. Now they can bale out at least
some of their bankers.

The only problem would be that a Lexus would be more costly... but then again we could sell Fords in Japan for next
to nothing. !!

Its a strategy. Someone must be working on a version!!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:47 - ID#252150)
Congratulations to all Kiwis for the impressive drubbing that your Women rugy
players administered to the U.S. team ( 44-12 ) in winning the World championship. Too bad the financial playing field is'nt as even. Unfortunately the financial playing field is controlled by the USG/IMF & if they can't win fairly, they just keep changing the rules.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:55 - ID#269409)
Pssst Kitcoites, "Sure thing" PM investment
Contact the U.S. mint and buy 1998 Platinum PROOF sets, and / or 1 Ounce coins. The mintages will be extremely low this year, they will certainly sell out quickly, the 1997's sold out and have appreciated approx. 30% in less than a year, and I expect the same with the 1998's.

Just a little hint from a Numismatist who will not be selling these, but will definitely be a buyer. They'll all get purchased directly from the mint before aftermarket sales take place, as ocurred last year.

Incidentally, pricesa for these are;

$1350 for the 4 coin set

$ 695 for the One Oz.

Sounds like a hefty premium for Platinum PROOF coins till you look at the ultra low mintages and consider how strong the performance has already been on the 97's.

Back to rocket science...........
(Sat Jun 13 1998 16:58 - ID#434108)
from ABC: "Yen's Fall Hurts Us All"
every where I look, I find more evidence that validates my 9/27/97 kitco post:

""When the 'tent' collapses,
it will not be the center post that goes first;
but the side posts,
and even the stakes....""

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:02 - ID#433172)
Open loop
I had an em 500, a little heavier duty than the ev series. We put about 6000 hours on it with no trouble. It finally lost ignition, hard to fix since it gets it's spark from the ( stator? ) , I fussed with it for a while, bought the bbok but never had any sucess fixin. Keep the oil clean, with a touch of prolong or something, I think the book went south with some other stuff just lately but I'll look around, it's probably very similar to yours. You should get years of service from it, very economical too. Be sure and get a 10 mm and 12 mm tool.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:02 - ID#162241)
BOJ Gold Purchases
Has anyone heard or been able to confirm in any way, BOJ Gold purchases. It was posted yesterday that BOJ had purchased 400 tonnes. Not Confirmed as of yet. That would be one DOT. Two DOTS set a direction... three set a trend. This would be most interesting.

It would also be interesting to see if the US tried in any way to dissuade BOJ from this action. They have done that before, I think it was with S. Korea.

Does anyone know if the US has been buying Gold? That would be a strategy to justify keeping the US $$ at this level. That would surly verify Gold as the magic to bolster currency and the make visible the domination plan on the part of the US Govt.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:03 - ID#434108)
LGB's rocket science platinum
Dear Sir/Madam:
What research can you share with us, detailing platinum's value/price/"ride" .... from 1928 to 1934?
David Blair Macrory

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:03 - ID#252150)
Glenn@Would you please clarify
From your post:
5. ) Supply overwelms demand by so much that the shorts will get crushed!
FALSE!!! According to the June98 issue of CRU Precious Metals Monitor SUPPLY of
gold exceeded DEMAND for gold by 734.7 TONS in the first three months of this year!!!!

Did'nt you mean to say that demand overwelms supply so much that the shorts will get crushed!

If so have you given any thought to who was buying all this excess supply, most of it @ 300+.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:09 - ID#162241)
goldfevr.... Tents and centreposts
Would you also say that Gold is synonomus with the centrepost, or that it is the centrepost. The US $$ is acting like the centrepost. Problem is that is is anchored in debt ( sand ) , and the water is pouring in all over the floor!
(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:12 - ID#434108)
Orca & BOJ/central bank gold buying
Now really, do any of us really believe there is sufficient wisdom, insight, or intelligence, or even humble common-sense, among any central bankers, any-where on earth....that they might conclude - to decide on - a decision such as : buying gold' ....?!



Steve in TO__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:14 - ID#209265)
Drifter - Deflation: Milton Friedman . . .
was wrong! Milton Friedman has come to be considered an infallible oracle, especially among the hard money crowd- but he has made some mistakes.

One of them was his assertion that deflation can always be controlled by governments and central banks. He said they just 'print money' and produce the right inflationary effect to counterbalance the deflation, i.e. if the value of currency is increasing, then just debase the currency in an equal and opposite amount.

Keynes is considered to have been completely wrong by the hard money crowd, and that is mostly true- but he was right about a few things. Keynes had asserted that it is possible for either deflation or inflation to spiral out of the control of governments and central banks.

The image I like to use to describe it is a death spiral of an airplane, where the airspeed becomes so high that the pilot doesn't have enough strength to overcome the forces on the control surfaces and pull the plane out of its downward course.

In articles and a book published in the '50s Friedman boldly asserted that Keynes' statement was not true, that astute money management could always bring inflation or deflation under control. He also assigned the blame for the Great Depression squarely on the Fed, claiming they hadn't done enough, soon enough, to inflate.

He conveniently ignored the fact that after their initial confused period, the Fed and Hoover tried to massively inflate, and their efforts didn't change the deflationary course of the economy significantly. FD Roosevelt, the closest thing to a fascist dictator the US has ever had, tried stimulation via public works projects even more massive than those Hoover had instituted, competitive devaluation ( via his gold seizure and change in the POG from $26.50 to $35 ) and printing money. The Fed couldn't lower interest rates any further under FDR because they had already gotten as close to 0% as possible under the Hoover administration.

Friedman was wrong about the Depression, and he has been shown to be wrong again by the recent Japanese experience. They have tried to inflate, run large deficits, started huge public works projects, and have lowered interest rates almost to 0% ( they're proposing to bring them from 0.5% down to 0.1% now ) - and *nothing has worked* their deflation continues. The US, being populated by staunch disciples of Friedman, keeps pressuring them to dig a deeper hole for themselves by borrowing ever more money to finance all these inflationary measures that won't work. Of course, the US moneymen are looking out over the edge of a precipice over which the Japanese threaten to pull them.

Once the deluge begins, either with a drop in the Nikkei under 14,000 or China devaluing, and people start bailing out of US debt to meet their emergency cash requirements, the Goldilocks economy that Mrs. Rubin, Clinton & Greenspan are trying to keep intact will implode. Maybe a good image would be of the Americans attached by a rope ( treasury debt ) to the Japanese, who have started to slide down the side of a cliff, dragging the Americans toward the edge. The Americans are frantically yelling to the Japanese: "do this . . . do that . . ." but nothing works, the Japanese just can't get enough traction to stop their slide, and the Americans can't pull them back up. Eventually, the Americans reach the edge, and then they go over too . . .

If anyone is interested in the explainations Keynes had for why inflation or deflation could get out of control I'll post 'em later. Have to go out for dinner with my lovely wife : )

- Steve

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:17 - ID#285392)
Glenn, thanks for your 11:54 post
It was very informative and appreciated. We don't hear from you as often as a year and a half ago but your posts are read with great interest. At that time you were just about to become a trader and completing your exams. It sounds as though you made a good choice in your new occupation, I hope you are enjoying it. Regarding your concern about negative news, it is just a welcome as the positive news, how else are we to become informed?

ted butler__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:18 - ID#317184)
Glenn - you might be right in your bearish slant on gold, but I don't recall a bigger switch by the commercials to the long side ( close to 100K net contracts on the Comex only ) in such a short time ( one month ) ever. I've yet to see them lose.

Also, I asked a while back ( not just of you ) , of your take on my claim that silver has the largest naked short position that the world has ever seen ( Just using Comex figures of course, the real total figure is too scary to contemplate ) . To date, no one has either agreed nor disagreed on what seems to me to be an outrageous claim. Am I wrong?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:25 - ID#162241)
goldfevr..... BOJ Gold
Posted here and Silicon Investor that BOJ purchased 400 tonnes. I believe it was Farfel ( dont hold me to that one... I could be wrong on the poster ) .

CB's synonomous with dumb and dumber! YES! But remember, desperate men do desperate things, and a cornered lion will surely fight to the death. There are l00 million or more hard working Japanese who deserve better than they are going to get. They could speak out and start pointing to the minute effort on the part of the EMU and also point out that the US is not selling Gold. They may soon get to that argument.

In America they will take up their guns when it happens here. Thats even more frightening.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:42 - ID#434108)
Orca, the tent & center-post
Dear Orca & Others,
The "tent" is the economic world as we know it today; defined
in the modern-day currencies of nation-states, as they politically compete for influence/dominance/control/advantage.

It reflects a mass-consciousness belief of false values and
perceptions ....
such as:
"I win when you lose".

Before I get philosophically carried away...:: )
the center-post is the U.S. dollar, and U.S stock market,
and economy. It is/will be the final part of the "tent"...
to give-way, and 'collapse' .... so to speak.

In other words, the 'tent' is collapsing, stake by stake,
& post by post -- as
nation after nation is brought to it's knees - at the hand of...
of false money & credit.... - which might be defined, in old-fashioned terms, as U.S. dollar 'imperialism'.

The 'Asian Contagion' we are now witnessing in SE Asia, & in
Russia, has to spread, inevitably, all over the world.

Simply put, the world economy is being strangled by
monetary & credit cancer. That is, the entire world of
commerce, business, government, and livelihood, is based on,
and transacted in, the "big lie" -- the acceptance & use of --
money and credit, that can be created out of nothing,
but thin air. This money & credit is created by the billions,
every week, in the U.S.A. And other nations are fast on our

Competive devaluations, scapegoating, trade-wars...these are some of the chickens coming home to roost, in this nest of deceptive monetary and
banking instituions wedded to corrupt political powers.

Granted, there is a lot of hot air around, to assure us that
we will manage & muddle thru all this.....but the cold wind of
clear truth is blowing in upon us....whether we want it, or not.
And it is the pure wind of truth, and the breath of life; and
ultimately, it will find the collapsing tent, and help it,
blow itself away.

David Blair Macrory
It is likely that various So. American nations will be the next stakes, and side-posts, to begin their collapse.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:43 - ID#252150)
Glenn's post & the Barron's article=LINEAR THINKING
Ya gotta love it!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:45 - ID#433172)
Steve in to
I'm interested, inflation or deflation , that's really the question.

I sat down on a log many years ago and "doped" this out. Its very simple. If gold is "it", hard money, then we will have an economy that expands quite slowly in which everything gets cheaper and cheaper. Gold appreciates as productivity increases and savings are always safe. So we give up rapid expansion for security. Makes sense to me.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 17:47 - ID#162241)
goldfevr ... Your last Post.
Thank you. I appreciate you posting thoughts that you have probably put forward before. I appreciate your perspectives and agree that the analogy to the tent is a good one.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:04 - ID#227168)
The biggy boys fall hard
Some big fund idiots are calling 335 Gold this summer Away to buy the new Cannon 5000 water pistol Guaranteed to shoot down elephant Gold bulls Rememberthelastdetail

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:05 - ID#255284)
Greetinz all
Would someone please direct me to details of the anti-gold advert broadcast on TV? I believe it was posted here, but I've not found it. TIA

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:05 - ID#384350)
Highrise, in the Oct 20, 1997 Harry Schultz Letter it says that sharply rising money supply is what causes inflation. In 1970-71, US M3 money supply rose dramatically, followed by gold, just as steeply. Starting in 1993-94, M3 has been rising sharply, with no publicity, the first such rise in 20 years. M3 has broken through a 2-Decade downtrend line, implying it's serious. It's probably why Greenspan is spooked. He doesn't mention M3 in his endless speeches because the Fed is largely responsible for it.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:11 - ID#256326)
Ted Butler
The gold commercials were heavily net long all through the disasters of 1996 and 1997, so they are not always correct. Neverthless a change of heart is encouraging to the bullish case.

In regards to your comments on a massive naked short position in silver, are you referring to a naked short options position? Certainly it has been a no-brainer to sell calls on gold and silver over the past few years. But as with the o.i. itself, this has been true for a long time and has been the correct thing to have done.

I have to admit that I wrongly thought both of those factors would have caused a massive short covering rally long since. But they didn't and here we are $125 lower in gold...........

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:11 - ID#252150)
Did anyone give any thought to my 17:03 to Glen?
What happened to the 734.7 tons of AU that was supposed to be in over supply ( mostly @ 300+ ) in the 1st Q?

Off to the golf course.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:12 - ID#434108)
XAU - Based on historical evidence (-see chart)
In the past - at least since its inception - when the 'XAU'
has fallen below '70', it has been a good time... to .... buy.^XAU&d=my

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:20 - ID#190411)
@ The antipodeans
Who were so kind to respnd to my inquiries about trashy, out of favor, worthless, capital consuming, death rattling, metal mining stocks.
Monday I will go bottom fishing with a loaf of bread, and some cheeseballs, and hope to hook a fighting carp. ( The fish that are gold ) .

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:21 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:21 - ID#227168)
Fantasy and folly
Gold Never trades It just sits on the great speculation Just look at those Mounties ---Still waiting for buyers --Away before the BULL retreated market really begins.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:23 - ID#317193)
There aint no oversupply. Gold in the $280s is a gift. As far as stocks, Im very close to jumping back in. Charts are tools not fortunetellers.

We watch this new gold market together. Yes?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:24 - ID#434108)
Commitment of Traders/ Aurophile & TedB
I appreciate discovering there is interest, on kitco, in COT.
I have been studying, using, losing, gaining ... with COT patterns since the beginning of this decade, if not before.
One point I can offer, that I hope is useful/constructive:

When the 'Commercials' ( -or conversely the 'Large Specs' )
map - out... a net - buying pattern ....but of lower & lower values.....even when the corresponding prices
( -whatever the commodity ) are also dropping....
then, there is an increased likehood of ...
a bullish move - in the making.

If any of you 'kitcoites' want examples of this kind of technical charting formation/pattern, you can secure this kind of data/charts, from numerous charting services. If you want to discuss this concept/idea further, let me know.

David Blair Macrory

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:26 - ID#190411)
@ dungbeetle
Your presence is kindly solicited.
If you won't talk, then send some more bugs.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:26 - ID#384350)
Aurator, Negative PM ads
Caper first posted this yesterday at 07:22. You may wish to run a "search the page" ( Ctrl+F ) and enter "Caper" to follow the discussion.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:34 - ID#256326)
I agree totally. A persistent campaign of what is usually called scaling-in by the big boys can have a bullish outcome. I used to spend a lot of time on O.I. analysis, both the traditional and the Briese variety, but some pretty big failures in prediction using it and the enormous growth of OTC options led me to de-emphasize it. I am willling to be proven wrong however.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:36 - ID#190411)
Do you trade anything other than goldshorts?
How about any other commodities? Or, will we be able to expect unlimited purchasing power with our USD?
If my charting is correct, we can expect all commodities to have no price on 16 Feb 2004. After that they will dump grains and metal on our lawns, causing an enviornmental catastrophe, that only President Willie Weld can solve.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:36 - ID#253153)
All: A return to common sense
In reading Kitco posts ,newspapers and listening to the news ---all are in a state of utter confusion. Nobody knows what to believe anymore. Therefore, as I see it , we must all return to common sense. What is common sense these days ? I would say that we should try to put the bombardment of political propaganda aside, and stick to fundementals of predicting the future of stocks and business. And we should plan our financial affairs accordingly. Common sense says to me that both stocks and business are going to much lower levels during the next several years. Why ? Simply because too many people have been buying stocks and doing business on " hopes and expectations." The boom has swept logical things away , but it will return. Now we have entered a period where the public is going to worry about their stocks and about the fact that they are "over extended " in their business. Most have too many debts and too much inventory. If this is true, how can stocks and business go up ? They won't. They will go down to some low level , realistic level. Once they have done that, common sense will prevail again. Some 60 million investors can't be right. All are loaded with stocks ( at high prices ) which ( in most cases ) are showing losses now. The time has come for the shearing of the sheep, and a whole new crop of wool will have to grow again. This is a long term process.
Foreign Fear is growing :
The entire world is in the same situation. Canada, Germany ,Japan, France, Great Britain, US and Australia are all worried for fear of a major depression. What will be done about it ? NOTHING . A trade war is certain . Profits will turn to losses. In time , the people will vote for new changes. What kind of changes are coming ? The very first one must take place in monetary matters. The worls can't have prosperity as long as there is uncertainty and doubt about what currencies are worth. Chaos
has been created by floating currencies. When gold and silver go up in terms of the currencies of the world then the first step towards the next period of prosperity has been taken. Right now gold is being pushed aroung as though it has no value.This may last another 2 months. As we go below 8780 on the Dow and the Dow top is confirmed, a tremendous bear market will begin to unfold and wholesale liquidation of stocks will begin. As we move forward in time, a trade war will be very bearish . No one profits from foreign trade war. Cut throat prices should prevail and unemployment should reach higher levels. I would not be surprised to see heany European selling of securities on US markets. The dollars received will be converted into money backed by gold , namely the swiss
franc. That is when the dollar bear market against foreign currencies begins, although domesticall , the US dollar will be very scarce and its purchasing power will increase. Thus , the" bear" will have its way. It is only a matter of time , and counteractions, will be put in force to bolster the " bull" which is so sick that he is about to fall over, as the "bear" claws him to death. Stay 100% liquid. Speculators, both gold and silver now offer a tremendous opportunity. Why not trade your paper ( play money ) for gold and silver shares ? I wish you all success .I'm off on vacation and will not be posting for awhile.
P.S. Old Gold--It was a fund manager--the person responsible for new investments.

ted butler__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:38 - ID#317184)

Aurophile - if you study the Commitment of Traders report closely, you'll see that the commercials are superb at averaging in and out of big positions. This seems to be true in all markets, not just gold. They never, ever liquidate with losses. They scale in and out. They can appear to be long in a declining market, but they're getting whole on the turns. If you think otherwise, I'd love to see where.

The question still remains, is there, or has there been a market with a bigger short position than Comex silver ( futures and calls combined compared to world production or total world inventories? Or stated differently, how can you have a short position bigger than what exists?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:41 - ID#256326)
Frank Veneroso spends much of his time and budget attempting to get a handle on suply and demand for gold, as do the various gold organizations. Since none of them have a clue ( at least for public dissemination ) I doubt that any of the rest of us do either. However, CRU is good, so Glenn's post should be taken seriously.

Personally I prefer TA in gold analysis where so much of the supply is in the hands of the secretive banks. At least with TA you can see the outcome of the supply/demand interface.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:46 - ID#256326)
Ted Butler
I agree that the commercials are good at it. ( They ought to be since they are the insiders. ) But they are by no means perfect. When they are wrong is when big washouts or short-covering rallies can occur. Look at 1996 for some good examples of where they were wrong in gold. Of course, there are times and places when they do not mind being "wrong" as they are hedged in physicals.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:54 - ID#376309)
Re: James - 17:03
No Supply is greater than Demand right now. We have been hearing on the squawk box about this economic crisis in south east Asia. Well it is REAL! There purchases of gold have halted! Not because they do not want gold but because there currencies have been crushed and the price of gold has sky-rocketed in local terms. Maybe now with all the uncertainty they should buy more, but since alot of them have lost there saving and there jobs they do not have the money. Look at Crude Oil. It's in the same situation. Oil producers keep talking of cut-backs and the market keeps dropping. It is because the demand from Asia has slowed more than the cut-backs. We need to here of more and more cutbacks from the gold mining companies. What is going on is really scary. Russia is next and it will take the eastern European currencies with it. The Western European currencies with the euro and all are in no better shape. We are going to have a supper dollar. It may not last long but commodities are headed lower and stocks and bonds ( US ) have the potential here to make one last surge to all time highs. Could we see DOW 10,000 very soon after all??

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:55 - ID#256326)
Ted Butler
Someone is taking the other side of those short positions of course. Most prices for futures-traded commodities ( and financials ) are set on the floor, even for the physicals; so there is no doubt but that paper drives the markets. I would be more interested in knowing what proportion of those shorts are naked, i.e. unhedged either in paper or physicals. that's where the potential for a squeeze exists. I do not have the ability to get to such data in a timely fashion.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:57 - ID#434108)
Gianni Dioro, HighRise, & M3
Why is it, so many of us miss the "secret potion" in this
equation ... named "inflation".
The quantity of money/credit - in circulation/use ...
is not the only/sole factor in creating 'inflation'.
This credit/purchasing media, must be - ultimately - USED -- that is
.... invested or spent or exchanged.... if it is not -- if it is SAVED/held ... instead ...then there is no force or energy to up-hold/sustain inflation, or even, ultimately, the ( pretended ) value of that money.

The Bank Credit Analyst offers ( -or at least it used to, 25 years ago ) a chart, & data, of "Velocity of Demand Deposits/NY Banks" ....This chart graphically portrays the activity/movement/use of money.

For example: Just ask your self: if times are 'good', and money's value is apparently ( slowly-? ) depreciating, what would be in your best self-interest....?: Would it be to save, for a 'rainy day', or 'spend now, and pay later' ... obviously the latter.

But what if the collective consciousness of millions of individuals, eventually sensed that...
times are not good....that -
the rainy days are coming
in buckets
why spend...
why not save -? - like the squirrels squirrel away nuts, for the winter.

When economic winter is in the wind,
no government, nor collection thereof,
no central bank, or colluding club there-of...
can stem the tide
or abort this wind of reality
this breath of fresh freedom's air
this fortune & fate.

Self - preservation is innate to the species;
the legislators & power-brokers are, ultimatyely, helpless before it.

It is the spirit and law and love of life,liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, that will again -move aside the false prophets of professed professional managers and hollow leaders -- ultimately the blind - now being led by the blind - will be willing to be blind no more.
Even in our time, will this truth surface, and succeed.

In the end, when the deflationary spiral consumes the monetary & banking world that has been twisted into utter hypocrisy since the birth &
death of WWII, we will look in the ashes of this unfolding crisis & crash, and we will find gold.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 18:59 - ID#227168)
Living on the edge
Many here have common sense ---Common History proves Kings owned and hoarded Gold May all Kitco-ites be Kings Let the common be ordinary and the posters Here and Now be Kings Finally the truth Away to see the Queen of Sheba.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:03 - ID#26467)
Light a fire
FWIW.Platinum should turn around second third week of July.
and gold joining in the ascend at the end of the month of July
440 on the platinum is the first target third week of August
Gold should be at 320,pull back to 300 and to make a run with
platinum to crest second week of November.
Platinum is making a triple bottom on the weekly chart.
Major turning points for silver second week September and
around Christmas of this year.
Gold has to break out in August through 304 in order to see
a solid run to the upside,we'll see what the Fed does.
Have an enlightened weekend

"If there is one consistency among succesful traders,it
is the disciplined use of a good plan."

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:03 - ID#376309)
I really do not know exactly where silver is going here. I think that it is headed lower with gold but I would not bet my money on it right now. As far as the supply and demand situation in silver there was a large deficit in silver for a long time. Then in the 4th quarter of '97 it turned into a small surplus with the halt of indian demand at prices above $6.00. In the 1st quarter of '98 it had a small deficit. If you look at the 4th quarter and the 1st quarter together demand was more than supply by an extremely small amount ( And I really mean extremely small ) . I'm not sure what is going on in silver now. There is a large group who wants silver to hold $5.00. If they can do it we may hit APH's target. If silver starts closing below $5.00 I'm going short as it means they lost and it is headed much lower.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:05 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro: M3 Check out the URL Gollum posted earlier

Explains why M3 has exploded in 1998, increased $521.7B by May 1998 versus $448.2B in all of 1997 and $74.7B in 1994. This is from missinglink's post yesterday.

Year M3 ( $bil ) M3 ( $bil increase )
1980.12 1992.2 $185.6
1981.12 2240.9 $248.7
1982.12 2442.3 $201.4
1983.12 2684.9 $242.6
1984.12 2979.8 $294.9
1985.12 3198.4 $218.6
1986.12 3486.4 $288.0
1987.12 3672.7 $186.3
1988.12 3913.1 $240.4
1989.12 4066.3 $153.2
1990.12 4126.8 $ 60.5
1991.12 4182.1 $ 55.3
1992.12 4193.5 $ 11.4
1993.12 4258.9 $ 65.4
1994.12 4333.6 $ 74.7
1995.12 4595.6 $262.0
1996.12 4935.5 $339.9
1997.12 5383.7 $448.2

1998.01 5432.1 $471.0
1998.02 5472.2 $474.4
1998.03 5536.3 $504.3
1998.04 5583.3 $508.0
1998.05 5608.2 $521.7

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:05 - ID#244418)
Heard two stories
I heard two stories on shortwave radio in the last few months. It seems one merkan tourist was in Thailand after the crash. He ran into a formerly wealthy stock broker living in a cardboard box on the sidewalk. The merkan was able to buy the broker's nearly new Mercedes for five Krugerrands. In a second story, another tourist ( merkan of course ) bought a Taiwanese' new $175,000 Cessna for ten one ounce gold coins. Lengthy arguments about inflation vs. deflation are best resolved in the light of such down-to-earth incidents.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:10 - ID#411331)
@ George: If going back to the gold standard means giving up rapid
growth based on debt, and the trade off is stability and security of savings, then what is your definition of slow growth? Since 1780, the
average appreciation of the New York Stock Exchange has been about 2.5%
per year. There have been exponential upwards and downwards deviations,
but the trend is clear: 2.5%. Is this fast enough for you? It is a
little higher than the population growth of the world, so there would
be some room for actual increases in the quality of life ( unless
unbridled free enterprise let the robber barons again hog it all for
themselves ) . This 2.5% figure is curious, because it is also about
the average increase in the annual production of gold. So it should be
entirely possible to go back on the gold standard, but with annual
growth limited to about 2.5% which equals the annual increase in present
gold production.

Of course to do this, the people will have to outlaw banks, usury, and
those folks can be counted on to create a bloodbath rather than give up
the old rotten system.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:11 - ID#434108)
Commitment of Traders, Aurophile & Ted B.

It is not simply: "did the Commercials buy/net long or sell ?"
The key, the insight, from this data, these patterns, is in identifying a potentially bullish pattern - when Commercials'
even as prices are declining.

When this pattern maps pout over weeks, or months, it is often a bullish signal.

Not withstanding this gem of wisdom & can never swing on a single branch; thus it is best to use several technical patterns, in determining buy & sell points/strategies.

All the best,
David Blair Macrory

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:11 - ID#256326)
Are those 1998 monthly figures year to day or actual?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:12 - ID#227168)
Everyone has a Secret Garden
Duke of Earle -Yes I short as many Comedies as my pocket book can afford but I have great taste for those new Soya bean drinks No Cholesterol  BTW---- I still miss Ted Im a Veggie at heart ---Away to keep my secrets.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:12 - ID#263254)
Big Otis posting of 12:26
To quote you:

"The point is, we feel that the tremendous amount of money, subsequent business contact for future software sales, pipelined postponed real software additions, and lawyers earnings ( now and in 2000 ) just simply overwhelm any negatives of the real problems."

"Assuming that any panic has been expended by 2000, we think that many inconveniences will arise. Will they be as locally annoying as, say, the current transport strike in Philadelphia? The massive snafu in France?"

Your scenario may indeed be a real scenario ( we can all hope that the final outcome is as mild ) . I do note that you made no mention of the risk of core infrastructure failures due to software AND embedded chips problems. I'm sure I don't have to paint a picture for you or anyone else on this forum. If there are failures, the health of banking and the stockmarket, as well as software sales, lawsuits and lawyers earnings will be far down on the list of importance.

Of course, if you have credible documentation that states otherwise, I will be first to read it and sigh, with relief.



(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:12 - ID#256326)
I mean year to date of course......

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:16 - ID#340302)
Gollum, Barron's Gold Article, Mutual Fund Cartels, and Stuff...
I'm going to a play tonight but thought I would post several comments:

First, Gollum, sorry to hear about your wife. I wish her speedy recovery and for you, most of all, peace of mind.

Second, the Barron's gold article is a very encouraging development for gold stocks. I believe that the best thing that could happen to gold is if mutual funds would abandon investment in the metal entirely and leave investment in the metal to major institutions and individual speculators.


Because when the stock market tanks, people will be throwing out their mutual funds ( and anything with the name "mutual fund" attached to it ) . In order for gold stocks to firmly re-establish their negative betas to the market ( as once existed long ago ) , then it is imperative that mutual funds hold few if any gold stocks such that when the mutual fund industry is rejected by the general public, they will be tossing out general industrial equities, NOT gold equities.

Of course, detractors of the foregoing thesis would state that the economy is far too interlinked with the mutual funds for the public to reject them ( owing to 401K's, etc. ) ...however, back in the Sixties, Bernie Cornfeld's 2 billion dollar mutual fund ( equivalent to $20 billion in Ninetie's Dollars ) was a colossus...a major dominant economic entity that ultimately collapsed when Robert Vesco looted it, thus revealing the Ponzi Scheme nature of the entire fund. The IOS Funds collapse ( and all the resultant panic ) ushered in the great Bear market of the late Sixties and it took years for a Bull to reappear ( How do I know so much about IOS? Because as a young bachelor in Bev Hills, I used to spend time at Bernie's as a frequent dinner guest where you could always be sure there would be a lavish banquet and a room filled with many sizzling women. I learned a good deal from Bernie about how the world of finance works ) .

A similar fate is awaiting the index mutual funds which operate as a de facto cartel, jockeying monies back and forth between major index stocks, targeting monies to support these stocks just after negative earnings announcements etc. Unfortunately, the cash inflows into funds have been steady at best in the last several months at a time when it becomes imperative that they increase more and more dramatically in order to support stocks at their currently lofty levels. Cash levels in the major index funds are a mere sliver of aggregate equity values, thus in the event of a left-field negative event prompting a rush to the exits, there would be insufficient cash reserves to pay out investors. Although most mutual funds have established lines of credit at various banks, one might also expect a run on the banks in a mutual fund panic, thus precluding the likelihood that the banks would be able to provide cash to floundering funds.'s alway nice to hear you praise people for admitting their errors and lack of knowledge in certain areas. Maybe you could learn something about that virtue yourself? As far as my being a cheerleader ( with pom-poms and all ) for gold, hey, as I've said many times before, gold desperately needs cheerleaders and there's nothing wrong with employing slogans...just look at the plethora of Wall Street slogan's, most recently used by several Gold Bears on this forum ( "The Trend is Your Friend" is one of my brain dead yet so catchy ) . per Rhody's info, you owe me an apology concerning your erroneous attacks upon my assertion that Bush served on Barricks's Board of Directors. The only reason I was not more adamant about the issue is because, at this point in my life, one often experiences flashes of early senility, at least where the little details are concerned. Anyway, just remember, learning is a daily thing ( or some such catch-phrase ) . Apologize...I always accept them.

And that's all from here, folks!



(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:23 - ID#66136)
PER REUTERS Duisenberg sees no political counterweight to ECB
Technically I am unable to get a copy onto this sight but this afternoon this lengthy copy was released as an interview to be released Monday in the German mag Der Spiegel. He takes numerous direct hits at the dollar to quote "Duisenberg on Saturday threw down the gaunlet to any political challenge to the ECB's power and said the euro would be able to match the dollar as a global currency." Many statements follow with respect to the dollar and the euro as he looks for the dollar to rapidly lose
significance as a trade currency within Europe. Notes oil imports might eventually be calculated in the euro. Many more important thoughts so watch for full copy by Monday AM as I'm sure it will get press coverage.
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:23 - ID#434108)
my 18:57 post & Fed out of Control/EJ/Gianni/et al.
My earlier post, and one or two before it, discuss "the velocity of money" ...this is what no goverment, nor collection thereof, can control. The velocity of money - the use of money - lies in the hearts & minds of individuals. Ultimately, the powers that be will come full round, and accept again, the reality that money must be based on integrity, and freedom.

The esteemed Bank Credit Analyst is one source for studying this.
They keep data, charts, and records on this concept/phenomenon.

If we do not appreciate this important ingredient in the political, economic, and investment equation, we are missing...
the missing link.

David Blair Macrory

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:24 - ID#256326)
Nice memory of Bernie Cornfeld. I was in Iran in the mid-1960's and I can tell you Bernie's boys sucked more money out of the embassy lunchroom than Khomeini ever did....;- ) ( Didn't get mine, though. )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:29 - ID#286230)
I owe you nothing. Here is the URL for the board of directors for Barrick and contrary your assertion George Bush isn't one of them. Maybe I was wrong. For some education isn't life long development --its chronic failure.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:29 - ID#45173)
aurophile: I'm not certain if they are year to date or actual
They were posted by missinglink yesterday. My guess is that they are actual. How's your piece on equity/debt/commodity monetary cycles going? I'm looking forward to reading it.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:29 - ID#17796)
F*...are you also mozel....the time is ripe.
Before July.


Gusto Oro
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:30 - ID#377235)
Thai Crash anecdote.
Winston, your crash stories Surechill me. --AG

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:33 - ID#26467)
FWIW Major and final USdollar breakout in the offing.The weekly US$ chart is a barnburner.All currencies are going to get hit.The Fed is not
going to sit idle.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:36 - ID#342315)
ted butler
If you have a chance, I would like to clear up some of the COT stuff. My email is Thanx, Charlie

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:36 - ID#256326)
The weather is so nice that I just had an acute attack of laziness today, except for a modest post to my website..;- )
I need to update some previous writings on the credit cycle stuff. Thanks for the interest.

Selby: You and the Mad One were among the very few who called this market correctly these past few years. Congrats. I guess.
When is Stratford on the agenda? Wish we could go this year.

Crystal Ball
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:39 - ID#287367)
When I saw this, I thought of " The Hatt "

"The Hat" ( A LadyHawke's favorite )

A policeman noticed an old lady standing on a street corner
during a sudden windstorm.

She was bracing herself by holding a lightpost with one hand,
and she was holding her hat snuggly against her head with
her other hand. Unfortunately, a strong gust blew her dress
upward, and it continued to flap in the wind, exposing her
privates for everyone to see.

The policeman came up to her and said, "Ma'am, you should
be ashamed of yourself, letting you skirt blow around, being
indecent, while both hands hold your hat. Everybody is
taking a good look at what you've got. Don't you think that
pulling your dress down is more important than worrying
about your hat?"

"Look, sonny," the old lady replied, "What these people are
looking at is 85 years old. ...But the hat is BRAND NEW!"

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:40 - ID#295111)
Physical...Hands On Gold!...and Japan
I've liquidated my position in Gold Mining Stocks. All I have left is some Freeport Mac and Newmont. I used the proceeds to buy real gold. My feel is that the gold stocks will take a big hit when the US market crashes. Physical gold might go down but not as hard as the mining stocks. ABX management is part of gold's rundown since they have yet to repurchase any of their own shares.

About that Japan rumor from Vronsky, I also have some contacts. I've been told from a reliable source that Japan has purchased closer to 320 tonnes, not the 400 tonnes quoted.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:41 - ID#255284)
F*...aurophile....IOS & The Fund of Funds

Ain't this socialism really something?....

"We're in the business of totally converting the proletariat to the leisured classes's revolutionary and it's goddam exciting... What I have done is apply socialist ideas about redistributing wealth in a free-enterprise context."
Bernie Cornfield

and here is an extract from John Train's Famous Financial Fiascos----

"Cornfield, by this time had two villas in Switzerland, a castle in Haute Savoie, with a moat and a thirteenth-century dining salon ( but the most modern of swimming pools, a house in London, an apartment in Paris, and two in New York. Later came an additional castle in Switzerland. He had a private jet, a Rolls-Royce, a custom-built Lincoln, and other vehicles in case these were inadequate. He was surrounded by pretty girls, and to be sure of a constant refreshed harem, started modeling agencies in both New York and Paris. "Where are the *customers'* girls?" John Kenneth Galbraith asked about this mis en scene. referring to the Wall Street joke about a visitor who, shown the bankers' flotilla asks, "Where are the customers' yachts."

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:43 - ID#286230)
Been there --Going again
Aurophile: I was at Stratford last month and saw Man from La Mancha ( currently having a flashback perhaps ) in the Festival theatre and it was great. Next month we are going to Waiting for Godo ( or Goldo as some say ) . It is in one of the smaller theatres--Pattison I believe. Also found a new a great new restaurant near all 3 theatre--Lindseys. With your US$ it would seem like it is all being given away.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:44 - ID#256326)
Yen is very close to a 61.8% correction of its 1975 to 1995 bull run. Both the 38.2% and 50% levels gave some support for a while. One scenario I have is for a turn late next week in the yen which causes a pull back in the US stock market ( as the large Japanese insurance companies stop buying dollar instruments at least temporarily ) . I don't have good cycle data on the yen, but some of the turn dates of recent years have been so close to the stock market and gold, that time segment analysis suggests yen could bounce soon on that basis as well.

If 61.8% doesn't phaze the yen, it's going to be a very long bear market as you say.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:45 - ID#66136)
SELBY Farfel is quite right. If you missed my post on this subject yesterday Bush is a
most important advisor to the Board on International matters as noted in the annual report. Officially not a Board member but certainly considered most influential on ALL matters of the Company. If you think not then try the corporate world.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:46 - ID#263254)
Big Otis
I do not want to appear confrontational but I do

see that you are preparing for core

infrastructure failure in your personal notes.

It is an interesting perspective that you share with

the forum, suggesting the actual event will be minor,

is hyped up over greed, yet you are preparing for

major problems.

IMHO it's going to take a lot more than "cleaning up

with productive software" after the fact.

I ask for your enlightenment on the subject.



(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:49 - ID#45173) This subtle change in psychology is hard to
measure. Exactly when, for example, did the Japanese people begin fearing that they might lose their jobs, that their income might dry up, begin holding onto their cash, not buying, hunkering down? My belief is that this happened right after the stock market crash in 1990. That's when their recession actually began. Our recession too will begin with our stock market crash. Since the average American has little savings, a lot of money in the stock market, and a lot of debt, our recession will become a depression much more quickly. I can see a year after the crash:

- Enormous inventories of cars and other big-ticket items bought with debt
- Houses for 1/2 their previous years' price
- Many retail businesses closed

The big difference between this depression and the last is that the US government is a debtor not a creditor. What does this mean?

As before, there will be suddenly no money around and the buying power of gold will rise. In deflations, cash is king. The question is, what will happen to the dollar? If the dollar is discredited because the US government has defaulted on its foreign debts, then the dollar devalues also. The buying power of gold will likely hold better than cash in dollars in this depression for that reason.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:51 - ID#190411)
Hey buff
Did these Euro clowns offer a prospectus with their credit card "money"?
Through all of the bluff and bluster, it's just another paper @sswipe.
They were never serious about a convertible currency, and they will never be. The Euro is doomed to the trash currencies that these bankers are fond of creating. It's another stall tactic on the way to money heaven.

I still want to see their prospectus..... Munch food for SDR'er.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:51 - ID#411331)
@ Selby: Bush and Mulroney were directors of Barrick back in '93.
Neither one of these political hacks may be presently
on the Board of Directors for Barrick Gold now.
You miss the point. Why would the past president of
the United States, and the past Prime Minister of Canada
sit on the board of a gold mining company? Why choose gold?
With their political connections, surely Microsoft would
have been more lucrative! Why a gold mine? Why a gold mine?

Could it be they knew even then, what was going to happen, and
the rats took to the biggest financial lifeboat they could find?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:52 - ID#256326)
Gotta go now,
but thanks ladies and germs ( Milton Berle? ) for a delightful chat. bbl perhaps.

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Jun 13 1998 19:52 - ID#295111)
George Bush
Bush is definately a Mason, probably also a Freemason. But he is definately not and never has been part of the board of directors at ABX.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:04 - ID#190411)
The simplest explanation is often the best.
What sort of company would have two of the most inept pollies on their board.
I voted my proxy to dump Mulrowney, the auditors, and most anyone else that I could.
I made a mistake again buying ABX. Teddo's dawg cain't bark nor bite. Arf ( in subdued groans ) .
----Looking for a miner who has enough cash to ride this one out.
I agree with glenn, wer'e all f*ing nuts.
....Drifting with the flow, but jigging my worm on the bottom...

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:07 - ID#255284)
SDR_er, knowledge, power & money
This was posted a year ago! Sat Jun 14 1997 05:46 by Millhouse:

Most people would accept that -
Knowledge is Power
Time is Money and, as every person knows:
Power = Work / Time
If Knowledge = Power, and Time = Money, then
Knowledge = Work / Money
Solving for Money, we get:
Money = Work / Knowledge
Thus, Money approaches infinity as Knowledge approaches zero,regardless of the Work done. What this means is:

The Less you Know, the More you Make.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:08 - ID#66136)
ERLE I am inclined to agree with you but still fell that many countries are getting fed up
with the US arrogant moves in trying to control all world decisions and still hope for some unified resistance. I do understand the roll of the international bankers and the euro decisions will make it harder to hide.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:21 - ID#190411)
@ All
Any company that has a politician on it's board should be avoided as the flea infested vermin pit that it is.

I like some vermin, and I am sorry that I compared them to politicians.

Why doesn't Mulrowney or any of the other directors of this pissant company talk to us on a forum like this?
They don't have any business being on a reputable company's board.
I would like to know what expertise Barrick needs from these clowns that they could get free of charge from a counter girl at Taco Bell.

Best wishes to Pauline in auSTRALIA.
Goldfevr you should read her words, rather than the official filtered sycophant press version.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:25 - ID#286230)
Thanks-- but this is 1998 and George isn't on the Board of Barrick --that is a demonstrable fact and Clinton's dislike for Bush isn't a reason for golds decline. This isn't Marketing 101 and saying it over and over won't make either the case. I'm finished for now and good night.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:26 - ID#427357)

Tantalus Rex ( George Bush ) :

Forgive my ignorance, but what is the difference between a MASON & FREE MASON???

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:33 - ID#256326)
Professor Vronsky
A mason is am older term for a journeyman specialist cosnstruction worker...

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:34 - ID#348129)
@The Big Temple
Bush and Mulruiney are freemasons, as were most US presidents.....

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:34 - ID#286249)
Aurator-Sorry! I don't suppose ignorance is an acceptable excuse?

However, had I known it had been posted before, I think I would have brought it forward again. The point being that the GERMANS have accepted the Med Club and that their acceptance underlines the stress the EMI/ECB's time table is experiencing. The Germans seem willing to stretch and accommodate all manner of 'difficulties'. Nonetheless, I certainly apologize - signed, confused.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:39 - ID#190411)
I am fed up to the gills with the aimless crap that lies behind the facade of official US foreign policy.
Most ( all ) right wingers that I know are non-interventionists.
MYOB is my credo.
My "last straw" was the senseless killing of the Iraqi's in "Gulf War One".
There was no military neccesity to bury and smother the conscripts that Saddam fielded. None. They weren't even in the battle. -Wanton murder.

A gold standard money system wouldn't have funded this or any of the adventures of the central governments.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:42 - ID#250121)
now you got me confused. What are you apologising for? My post was a response to your enquiry about Power. Millhouse posted that excellent bit of algebra ( where's X=X_A now? ) that, I think, demonstrates the wisdom of ignorance... I am certain I never saw your refence before. It is I who should apologise for confusing you.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:48 - ID#427357)
mason and freemasons

REF: aurophile ( Professor Vronsky )
A mason is am older term for a journeyman specialist cosnstruction worker...

really? gosh, gee-whiz, thx Herr Doctor

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:52 - ID#66136)
ERLE If MYOB = a solid self motivated independent thinker and execute with the same vigor,
then we are in the camp together. I am sure we can go on and on about the criminal things this gov't has done as well as others. All we can do is recognize the power and adjust to our advantage vs most who exist in the follower camp.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:56 - ID#45173)
vronsky: Has the purchase of 400 tons of gold by BOJ verified?
If so, that's a good sign for gold, tho not for the US and the dollar. Thx.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Sat Jun 13 1998 20:59 - ID#432214)
Selby & George Bush
At the Barrick site go to people, then click on the International Advisory Section...Not a director but I do see George Bush, something about being the 41 president .....

Give the Farfel a small break,

Go Gold

Bully Beef
(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:07 - ID#259282)
Couldn't help but get in on the discussion of generators.
My power was off for 17 days in Jan. due to the ice storm.
Have a lock and chain for it.
Have a propane fireplace or space heater or Gravity fed oil space heater.
I have a wood stove and an endless supply of wood.
Locate an easy source of water. Have those 5 gallon plastic pails with lids.
Have a large galvanized pot to keep water warming all the time. It takes the longest time just to get it tepid.
Fill the bathtub if you suspect power shortage.
Insurance covered having a generator at the cost of 35 dollars a day if it was over 4000 watts.
4500 to 5000 watts is prime.Less will burn out your water pump.
You need to run your furnace fan to circulate the air in your house evenly so pipes won't freeze.
Wire straight into your panel. Turn off main breaker so you don't back feed to power lines. Just use breakers to direct power to things you want to use.
Have an electrician you can get a hold of in a hurry before his price goes up.
Be prepared to help your neighbours. Give freely . do all you can. learn what to say no about. Your neighbours will never forget the kindnesses you offered. ( sump pumping is big )
I had a cheap coleman 4500watt. It worked great but Hondas are far superior. Hondas are to die for.
Running the generator for the freezer is a waste in my opinion.
The silences are great when it is off.
We didn't need it as much as we thought.
Set up your house so you aren't as reliant on power. Screw the grid.
Change the oil often. More than they recommend.
People will steal your generator in a crisis. Many people lost them around here and normally there are few thefts.
Remember who ripped you off for candles in the emergency and never shop there again.Batteries and lots of them. Lamps and lamp oil not kerosene. It stinks up modern houses.
Sorry for length

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:19 - ID#93127)
My dear clever Wit--my mind is fogged with flu (that phrase shows how
BAD it is! ) My problem is: I still don't know what your telling me! But as I VALUE you every bit as much as one of my Maple Leafs [more--but that's just to show I'm SERIOUS], please take it as given that...mmm...
what IS it we're talking about? {:- ( i think a lil brandy and lemon don't you? {:- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:30 - ID#267276)
As of last year George Bush the 41 pres was the Senior Advisor for Barrick. Others on the advisory board are former Senator Howard Baker, former german banker Helmut Kohl, Vernon Jordan, and on the board of directors is former PM of Canada Brian Mulroony.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:39 - ID#93127)
Auratorre: Your Fab Files--the name is Avinash Persaud

He is head of currency research [London] for J.P. Morgan. Perhaps the next time the paper-people trumpet the dollars strength, and /or how Europe intends to hold squillions of $ in their reserves, you could yank his letter to the editor [FT] from your files and post it?
Many thanks. {:- )
Alsorummaging in the land of Europa seeking motes of truth ( grains are too much to ask for nowadays ) the energy forecastup to 2000have the dollar 20% lower than it was when the report was issued [1997or maybe it was 1996]
And for Sharefinanother Europa trivia byte: Saw a little report on the Euro issuance and the IT problems. Thought, Sharefin would be interested Went in to check. The report dealt with the technical triumph of solving the problem of getting the Euro symbol on the computer keyboard. Ten pages worth!

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:39 - ID#93127)
Auratorre: Your Fab Files--the name is Avinash Persaud

He is head of currency research [London] for J.P. Morgan. Perhaps the next time the paper-people trumpet the dollars strength, and /or how Europe intends to hold squillions of $ in their reserves, you could yank his letter to the editor [FT] from your files and post it?
Many thanks. {:- )
Alsorummaging in the land of Europa seeking motes of truth ( grains are too much to ask for nowadays ) the energy forecastup to 2000have the dollar 20% lower than it was when the report was issued [1997or maybe it was 1996]
And for Sharefinanother Europa trivia byte: Saw a little report on the Euro issuance and the IT problems. Thought, Sharefin would be interested Went in to check. The report dealt with the technical triumph of solving the problem of getting the Euro symbol on the computer keyboard.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:40 - ID#93127)
Sorry for the double--

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:44 - ID#45173)
Recession/Depression ain't all the Japanese are in denial about
"'Pride,' a film that depicts convicted war criminal General Hideki Tojo as a hero, is the top-earning domestic film in Japan so far this year."
Associated Press

Ambrose Bierce defined peace as: "A period of cheating separating two periods of fighting."

Economic humilation is not going to sit will with the Japanese people. Those US Treasuries are as good as sold, as far as I'm concerned.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:46 - ID#26793)
World markets crumble in association with Japanese problems

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:50 - ID#342315)
SDRer "brandy and lemon"
It will do it- but more than a bit. Good luck with the malady. If you can get some cone flowers, add plenty heads to the drink. Charlie

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:51 - ID#43460)
DJ re channels
DJ, your posts are one bright light in this otherwise glum, dimly lit site. Your channels are most encouraging today. ( 8-^] )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 21:59 - ID#26793)
Oil prices plunge; worldwide oil storage tanks are full, income off 1/3

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:03 - ID#250121)
I'm just being para-dim today
OK, his name is Avinash Persaud, but what did he say? Is that the "unknown" quote I forwarded to you?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:06 - ID#384350)
goldfevr, M3 and Inflation
Yes, the Usury-based credit system must be constantly fed ( by new borrowings ) , otherwise it will implode.

In the Financial Times today there was an article about a bill having passed the US House which would take severe actions against people filing Bankruptcy and walking away from debts. It appears that we are seeing the Usury Monster getting hungrier and angrier at those who don't feed him.

You said that when times are good and currency is losing value many ( grasshoppers ) would consume now and try to pay later. But others ( Ants ) might try to save for the future. These people might wish to buy a large quantity of grain for their retirement, but it would eventually spoil with time. They don't want to put their life savings into an intrinsically worthless fiat currency. So they think of some other way they could ensure future consumption.

Maybe they could make an arrangement with the local mill. Maybe they could get a deposit receipt saying, "This receipt entitles the bearer to one bushel of grain from Cook County Mill".

Of course you would have to trust the viability of the Mill. You wouldn't want to deal with a company that is indebted to the local bank, as the mill might fall on hard times, the bank might assume ownership, and your grain receipt might become worthless.

In the above example we see how a derivative of something valuable can lose its value. If only there was a way to purchase something that can be easily exchanged for grain, holds it value, and will not spoil.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:10 - ID#45173)
Dollar down, gold up?
The widening of the current account deficit will put pressure on the U.S. dollar later this year.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:14 - ID#433172)
Thank you for your comments. I've been isolated for quite awhile and never expressed an opinon before.
Real growth comes from innovation and productivity and of course effort.
Finnancial masters, which the credit and banking system create, don't really produce anything. Gold is only a medium of exchange, a reliable one as long as it's scarce enough. Too much gold and a situation of inflation develops as in 17 century Spain.
I'm ready to give up Civil Law, professionl police, professionl army, professional protection of professions, most criminal laws ( no victim,no crime ) , in favor of a social system I can understand. I'm sure the more taxes we pay, the more crap we'll have to put with, I don't want my government to have so much power. I was trying honestly to do my income taxes ( I was doing federal contracts ) but I ended up sweeping it off the desk into the waste paper bucket in disgust. The left hand sure doesn't know what the right does since they left me alone. Anyway what I mean is a ten year old should understand his responsibily under any law over his head.
I suppose thats all revolutionary, but maybe not so disruptive. As long as people can understand they can change. Of course the news would get dull.
We'd probably grow faster than 2.5% in actual terms excluding all the legal fees etc.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:20 - ID#413109)
Bully Beef- "Lamp oil"
Is just the thing I'd like more info on. Please email me THANKS.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:23 - ID#252127)
Hang the bastards

It's pure lunacy. I read here and on other sites worries about OPEC and other oil producing nations selling their gold because of low oil revenues.

Their fear is that gold will sell for debt loaded dollars, these same dollars that have tanked a number of times in the past 30 years and will likely go the way of the dodo bird.

Selling gold -no mans debt- for indebted dollars makes little sense unless those dollars are converted to something ( real ) like food, shelter or protection. In an emergency this may not be possible.

In countries where people stick together such items require only mutual cooperation with the gold held as the last resort.

Conclusion, the media hacks have everyone confused and when the crap hits the fan, they and their masters will hit the fan simultaneously, because the attempt to wrestle anothers wealth by such means under such conditions speeks of the wrath that will come to them.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:24 - ID#45173)
Just How Overvalued are Stocks?
"Of the nearly tripling in the S&P 500 since the economic expansion began seven years ago, fully 80% of the increase can be explained by rising corporate profits, lower interest rates and demographic trends. These factors explain an S&P 500 price index that is close to 830. Given that the S&P 500 is currently trading just under 1100, the stock market is overvalued by nearly 25%. This is approximately equal to the stock market's estimated overvaluation prior to the 1987 stock market crash."


(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:30 - ID#255190)
You and your wife are in my prayer.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:32 - ID#255190)
SDRer re: "against US$ and Gold"

One can only surmise that as the US$ isa foreignly controlled currency, so they consider gold to be not in their control?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:34 - ID#45173)
@missinglink: where did you get your M3 numbers?
The stats released by the Fed look far less alarming. Please see:


(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:39 - ID#286234)
Bar is open, but as is often the case, I'll be out. Don't talk about Honda generators and stuff till I get back. Have a good time. :- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:42 - ID#255190)
Y2K BigOtis @ the scene
Your actions speak louder than your words. Intellectually you seem convinced that the worst will be inconveniences. Yet you are intuitively preparing for 'natural disasters'.

Also note that you consider money spent on lawyers and software projects as outweighing the effects of Y2K failures is not shared by most economists, as they would subtract these figures from earnings ( asexpenses ) .

Am hoping the best for you and your family in all this.

BTW, what evidence do you have to offer which supports your opinion ( minimum distruption scenario ) ??? If its just your opinion then this doesn't weigh in to heavily for me. I need to hear some really good facts and figures as well as success stories. It would certainly help my disposition.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:47 - ID#93127)
Quick thought before I leave for a wee while
Maybe what we are viewing IS a panic, and difficult for us to discern because it is coming from a direction nonsensical to us, We KNOW what we KNOW.

Reflect for a momentthe PR IS becoming excessive, feeding on itselfwe have ALL asked why. Gold somehow represents an enormous threat; one wonders if it is tied back to the ECU against Gold and the US dollar and some agreement of which we of courseno nothing. There is something-darned odd about it.
It is not necessary to kill a fly with a nuclear device, yes?

Charlie@Thanks! Better daysIm going to catch up with my mail SOON!

Allen ( USA ) @Interesting.thought , but they ( according to their own reserve figures ) have piles and piles of the stuff. I did find it INTERESTING that ( dont remember the exact percentages ) Europa had 20% + foreign reserves including gold, Japan 11+ and the US was listed as 4.1. It was almost embarassing! {:- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:48 - ID#373284)
more than I may
MY LOVE...dreams...OF...MAKING YOU all comfortable...out of the kindness he leaped...palms up...WISHING ALL OF YOU MY BEST...TRULY...NAMASTE'

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:49 - ID#401460)
ABX Clarification


Annual Report 1997
"International Advisory Board"

Honorary Senior Advisor - President George Bush

Chairman - The Right Honorable Brian Mulroney, Former Prime Minister of Canada

Members -
Senator Harold H. Baker, Jr., United States
Partner, Baker, Donelson, Bearmen & Caldwell

Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., United States
Partner, Akin, Gump, STRAUSS, Hauer and Feld

And others

The Right Honorable Brian Mulroney
Chairman, International Advisory Board

and others.

The Right Honorable Brian Mulroney,P.C.,LL.D.

and 15 influentual others


(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:52 - ID#223391)
@Good evening
I've noticed that Sam has opened the Kitco B&G.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 22:55 - ID#255190)
Last one and to bed
People who think they will wait till spring or summer, or Dec 31st of 1999 to pull their money into cash from banks and brokerages will be very disappointed to find that there is no cash left and the government has locked down these exits.

I think we all tend to think as if we were the only person to have our bright idea. We think, "I'll wait till its late and then pull out." This also sounds alot like how people play bubble markets. They rationalize their involvement with the idea that they will get out before the market falls. But 95% of them never do get out. They are surprised when they find themselves at the end of very long lines of others who had the same brilliant idea, but were a few seconds quicker then them. Yet it never occures to these folks that they were thinking in a rather self absorbed manner, even as they look up the line ahead of them.

IMHO if you haven't got your presonal preparations settled within 100 days ( end of Septmber ) then you run a very real risk of becoming part of the panicing herd.. or under their heals.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:01 - ID#401460)

Looks like a 400% increase in 18 yeras.
1980 = 4,000
1998 = 16,000
I would guess, that if numbers were charted, they would still give us the same steep incline up?

Whatever, it still represents a lot of printed money.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:01 - ID#255190)
People will not start thinking of 1999 until they buy calenders for that year. Fall 1998.

BTW stop buying PM's! Don't you know you are causing problems for me in covering my shorts!

Year to year gold coin accumultion in USA up 40% in January 1998. Before you know it they will have to start reporting that in spite of all the negative gold talk people are buying gold hand over fist. :- )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:05 - ID#93127)
Lets Define PanicLets make a list {:-)

My contribution to start it off
This weeks Economist, p.71 American banks, Wells bells
So common have grand financial marriages become in America that they are losing their power to shock. FOUR OF THE FIVE LARGEST BANKING GET-TOGETHERS OF ALL TIME HAVE TAKEN PLACE THERE, ALL OF THEM SINCE APRIL.
Remember UBS?

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:13 - ID#411163)
BigOtis Re: generators
A 24 hour test is is good test but try it for a week or so. A 500 watt
unit would never run a home except for light. Also the gas station
may not have any power to pump your gas cans full. Someone mentioned
backfeeding your light/power panel-very good idea. Do it now like he said. When you need an electrician he will be too busy. How will you keep your food from spoiling with out a fridge? 500 watts will not even start it! If you do have to power a home longer term the diesel unit is your best choice for sure. The problem of theft is VERY REAL-I would chain it down and then some!! Hard times make for hard people. Buy some pepper spray/stun gun at a minimum-please try a whole week

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:19 - ID#45173)
"...more than a third of US residents have never heard of the Year 2000 bug.
"Of those who have, says the magazine, four out of five shrug it off as a technical problem that technical types will no doubt solve before a crisis happens. Unlike earlier CIO surveys, this one covered regular citizens people instead of information technology ( IT ) professionals. CIO publisher Gary J. Beach says he found some of the results stunning.

"Most troubling, Beach told Newsbytes, was that more than half ( 52 percent ) of the respondents, including those who shrug off the problem, said if it isn't solved by mid-1999, they will move their money around. A full quarter said they would simply put it under their mattress until the Y2K events are over."


(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:27 - ID#45173)
At last, some fresh blood in the Y2K debate
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - The nation's power utilities told a Senate panel Friday that they are working to solve the millennium computer problem. But they can't guarantee the lights won't go out on Jan. 1, 2000.

An informal survey by a Senate panel of 10 of the nation's largest utilities serving 50 million people found that none has complete contingency plans in case their computers fail because of the Year 2000 problem.

One utility didn't know how many lines of computer code it had, making it impossible to know how difficult or time-consuming its problem will be to solve with fewer than 18 months remaining.

``We're no longer at the point of asking whether or not there will be any power disruptions, but we are now forced to ask how severe the disruptions are going to be,'' said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:29 - ID#284184)
Allen-USA re gold coin purchases in USA


You stated in a post a little bit ago that gold coin purchases were up 40% in January, 1998, from a year ago. Do you have a source for this information that tracks this? A URL perhaps? One thing I have noticed: despite gold having gone back down recently, gold coin prices have kept going up this year.

Thanks, Fergie

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:30 - ID#411163)
Vronsky-I used to be able to access your site
and I would go directly to a list of list of current articles. I can no longer do this. Have you changed it?? I like to keep current
thank you

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:30 - ID#258429)
Rack generators
Thank you Rack and all other generator experts today. Rack, I think I said 240 volt. The one I have is a 4000 watt Generac, seems very small, very smooth, and gas seems to last long, but it is the only one I used and only for four hours. I did forget the fridge, as we only used it during the day and then restored company power. Will have to run again another hour at night for fridge. I will test again for the full 24 hours at your suggestion.

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:30 - ID#290172)
Panic nibbles?

Also from this week's Economist-"Measure for Measure in Euroland"
"Europe's new currency will, in effect, turn 11 European nations' stockmarkets into one enormous hunting ground-what a chance to express their killer instincts and look really, really good."
"How?" we all ask. Well, "pretend the euro was launched on January 1st 1997 with its value set equal to the ecu, a basket of Europe's national currenciesNow compare the track records of two blue-chip stocks-Fieat, an Italian carmaker, and Peugeot, its French competitor-over a period starting before that date and ending after. Fiat shares outperformed Peugeot's over the period-when lire and francs are converted into euros at the rates that would have prevailed on January 1st, 1997. But use a different and equally justifiable conversion technique, retating both companies weekly share prices in a third currency, the German mark, and then translating their D-mark prices into euros, and Peugeot appears to have been the better buy."

Isn't this the sort of knowledge that roils markets? And think about international money market fundsoh my oh my.
really bbl this time {:- ) )

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:35 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste'
The Island that is Long is enlivened because your toes might arrive...

Be careful...say...Kevan...all will be safe...truly...Sicilians dream that I may teach them to be quiet...

YOU ARE ALWAYS WELCOME...engulfed by the moon lit evening an ornament in YOUR honor shines...beneath such a tree I kneel...

(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:35 - ID#45173)
Been looking for the inevitable Y2K fix schedule slips...
"Overall, the Pentagon is running at least four months behind schedule on its timetable for Year 2000 computer fixes and estimates that it will spend about $1.9 billion on the problem. The department has about 25,000 computer systems, with about 2,800 designated as 'mission critical.'"

Maybe the Pentagon can move the Year 2000 back a bit to make room for delays.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:40 - ID#258429)
Bingo 2000
Thank you for your most thoughtful reading of my 2000 post. Addressing your specific points, filling in somewhat between the lines, and exposing more of my guilt:

The software to be delivered after 2000 I spoke of has nothing to do with the 2000 problem. This is merely the software that clients would have developed in these three years had they not been obsessed with the matter of fixing their current software. We just plan on this as future earnings to be made after we collect all we can on the 2000 problem. The fact is, many companies could have made arrangements to purchase and in some cases develop "compliant" software during these three years. I even read to my surprise this week that some large brokerages do not intend to compete with the internet brokerage upstarts because "they are too busy fixing software". That may indeed be true, but remember that, in our experience, more time and budget is spent on developing legal strategy to combat lawsuits than on the software itself. There is another really disturbing ( to me personally ) hushed up side affect. The software personnel shortage will turn into a software personnel glut right at early year 2000. Our company is even planning for it. In others words, we think in that January the world will realize the sky is not falling and all those Y2K people will be let go. In a personal aside, I also feel sorry for those currently being laid off, especially. the banking people who get hit over and over. Also, our church has just recently, twice, prayed for the unemployed, and I don't recall even once that in the previous 10 years.

With respect to the "core" failures, I repeat that we feel that the financial sector is more prone to achieve a loss of confidence due to the Asian exposure than to 2000. Many would disagree with this statement, but if I may quote, Fleckenstein, who seems to be generally esteemed by Kitcoites, "Industry can lose billions, but it takes bankers to lose REAL money"

With respect to the chips, I have no first-hand client knowledge. The only thing I know about are the supposed "fire engine" type problems. On a quest, a co-worker and I stopped at two real fire stations. At the first they didn't know what we were talking about. At the second, a man was vaguely aware, but he knew that any "nuisance" failure has a manual override switch. Presumably this would take care of the "You didn't do maintenance" fault.

With respect to our family's preparations, we really do them for any panic many have suggested would more likely occur next spring. Of course, we will keep them around and refreshed for Jan 2000 also.

Again Bingo, thank you for your kindly criticism. You know that I am somewhat concerned, but I hope by exposing more I can give you more of a feeling why I am not paranoid.


(Sat Jun 13 1998 23:55 - ID#258429)
Allen concerned
Thank you Allen for your concern. Also you agree that any preparations should be made now. But it seems from your posts that you feel the panic will start soon and continue right up to 2000, when the real disaster begins.