.

#121 of 122: klepfer@eoni.com Fri 29 May '98 ( 03:12 PM )
As a member of an IT team dealing with the Y2K
code changes in the core business systems of a
Fortune 50 technology company ( I also have a degree
in Economics ) , one the more interesting points that
has been missed in many discussions is that the
majority of corporate efforts to solve this problem
are testing related. The technical solutions to
the problem ( s ) are straight forward, but the
implementations are difficult because we are
embarking on a rarely touched-on requirement -
testing future dates and the roll to those dates.
Many of the solutions can be implemented, but the
actual functionality and errors in these solutions
won't be proved until it actually happens....at
which point the damage is done. Hmmm.

I personally do not subscribe to the
end-of-the-world theories, but I do beleive that we
have reached the end of an American era of cheap,
easy, sky's-the-limit technology. The corruption of
data in the society will build to a peak sometime
in early 2000, with a severe slow-down in the speed
of most transaction that we currently take for
granted. In essence, we will be reduced to what
most of the rest of the world deals with on an
on-going basis.

The net result of all this is the opportunity to
simplify your life by reducing your vulnerabilites,
cleaning up your finances and prepare for a much
slower pace of life and fewer opportunities. Most
of the people I know view these as good things and,
while most of us fear the uncertainty, we
secretly look forward to a more sane approach to
life. Just be sure you adequately prepare and view
this as one of the few 'sure-things' of our
lifetime.

P.S., Buy gold.

For more see:

http://wellengaged.com/engaged/wrap.cgi/forbes.cgi?c=forbes&f=0&t=8

-EJ

There are several objections to this overly optimistic statement:

There are always someone willing to work cheaper: the question is:
Are they capable of doing the job on a satisfactory level?
Comparison between Japanese, Koreans and Africa is too flattering to
Africa. Facts: Toyota is building new big autofactory in England, not in Africa; Atmel is building new chip plant in France, not in Algeria.

Along with the increase of cheaper production facilities there is a parallel increase in consumer -- those yesterday cheap producers turning
riches. So, increase in supply is following by increase in demand. Which of them prevails is a subtle matter of miriad of coincidenses.

This cheap production is possible only beacause of great technological
advances -- which cost dearly, thus limiting expansion of cheap production.

You would be right to object with recent slump in oil prices. Well, it is
mostly due to complete lack of political will on the part of OPEC. Whatever low opinion you might be of Western countries ( which is a fashion on this forum ) , history ( resent - Gulf War ) has examples of very
efficient and coordinated actions of industrialized nations when there vital interest are at stake. There is absolutely no obstacle for OPEC to stop selling oil at anything lower than $20 for about 6 month -- but they
distrust each other more than they distrust the West.
Don't count on such "simple minded" behaviour on the part of West.

Debt by itself is redistribution of wealth. Each time someone buyes stock there is someone selling. So cash just changes hands. There is potential for deflation here but pretty limited one -- in case when those accumulating cash are few and hoard it for the sake of hoarding.

Overproduction is another serious reason for deflation. It is much more
limited than in 1920-30s. Manufacturing is pretty flexible -- in technology as well as in management -- add globalization of markets -- which allows to dampen impact of local demand.

But all the above said -- several stupid political decisions might make deflation a reality.

And getting cheaper.
-EJ

7. THE BIS AS A BANK

The Balance Sheet of the BIS

At 31st March 1997 the Bank's balance-sheet total stood at 66.8 billion gold francs, with the Bank's own funds ( capital and reserves ) at 2.4 billion gold francs. Expressed in US dollars with gold at the then current market price the figures could be put at US$ 135.6 billion and US$ 5.5 billion, respectively.

You have probably explained this before but seeing as how the central banks' central bank values it's reserves and capital against the price of gold, might they not have an interest in a low price of gold if the coming global financial architecture were to be a gold standard?

http://208.228.76.74/gcn/1997/april14/dod.htm

FWIW.Minor turning point for the Yen June 15 with an upmove during the week downward June 22-23till the end of the month.We could get a sharp
rally with an important reversal date July 8 and downward for one
to two weeks.There is a cycle bottom around the third week of July
68-69 might be an important bottom.With low oil prices,low Yen,
making money in the US currency and bonds,the Japanese might convert some
of their financial assets in oil and possibly gold.It would be a smart
move on their part.Have their cake and eat it too.
Checked the bonds,they will be going down coming week.They might
smell something is up.If US index does go higher ,the victims will be
the European currencies.That could become interesting,the balkans?
The general market I believe will stage a rally sometimes July 21
as well,this will be a short one until August 15.

Central bank facilities and bridging finance

In addition to placing funds in the international markets, the BIS sometimes has occasion to make liquid resources available to central banks. Such facilities usually take the form of secured credits
against gold or currency deposits held with the BIS, but on occasion they may be granted on an unsecured basis, for example in the form of a standby credit which a central bank can draw on at very short notice.

If unsecured credits were granted to say, Asia, against the deposits of all other central banks in BIS ( 7% of all global reserves? ) and these loans were to go bad because liquidity is not so much the problem as deflationary forces in the region, then would it not make sense for the BIS through Switzerland to consistently talk down the value of gold for the purpose of minimizing the value of their outstanding bad loans?

My head hurts trying to balance the Swiss location of the BIS and the repeated hollow threats of the Swiss to sell their gold. The Swiss would surely play along with whatever the BIS said considering the reserves the BIS holds in Swiss Francs. Goodnight.

It is now safe to turn off your computer.

Why do those numbers look less alarming? From May 1997 to May 1998 M3 rose $521.7 billion. This is the same as my previous post and from the same data source. I took the liberty of only using the December figures instead of every month and calculating the annual increases.

Maybe you are looking at the change from month to month and comparing it to my annual figures?

It is interesting that Debt is currently listed as $15,449,400,000,000 ( $15 trillion ) for April 1998. What else does this include besides that listed today as $5.49 Trillion on the Treasury Debt to the PENNY Website?

"The central question is whether the Great
Inflation of the past half-century is over.
Answering yes to that question means that gold's role as a store of
value has permanently dwindled in importance..."

Store of value may have nothing to do with inflation as you saw it in 70's.
Just think, what would you use as a store of value for, say, next 25 year?
Dollars? House? Land? Red wheat? Car? Computer? Box of Viagra? Stocks?
Art? Gold?

Well, value of dollars would depend on mostly political gambit in US.
House -- it value is totally uncertain in 25 years -- all depends on reputation of your neibourhood.
Lan -- sounds good -- but you will be taxed to death.
Red wheat -- may be they will value only green one in 25 years.
Car -- as collectible - might be.
Viagra -- well, they will invent something better.
Stocks -- Who knows if the very stocks you hold will be worth anything in 25 years.
Art -- that might do it. If your today taste is compatible with tastes of wealthy public in 25 years.
Gold -- that is pretty much the most reliable one -- unless they invent
a cheap way to get it from seawater. So -- platimun might be better.
This conclusion does not depend on an assumption of run-away inflation.

The public might discover that gold is store of value -- even with no inflation present -- pretty soon.

My respects to Dines.

How astute of you to point out that I made a BIG mistake when I invested in natural resource stocks 2 years ago. But I have excellent company on this forum ( entitled "Gold" ) . And once again you have done what you do so eagerly and so well - kick us when we're down. Note that I haven't sold yet, so I haven't lost anything yet, Selby, you economic whiz. Unfortunately, some here have lost money and it is with them that my sympathy lies. Are you really surprised when the result is extreme anger when a pompous ass like you jumps in to ridicule us?

And how clever to cloak your gold price "prediction" of $250 in the form of a question, whether rhetorical or not. I'll give you that. Very, very clever.

You are a government worker, aren't you?

Do you have a historic chart of JOC index?
Would like to take a look at it in one of your excelent "Letters".

Where have you been reading that the Fed was inflating in the 30s? Not so. The Fed raised interest rates and had a very tight money policy in the 30s. That and the total collapse of world trade due to the Smoot Hawley Act killed the US economy. The problem of deflation in the 30s should properly be laid at the feet of the Federal Reserve.

The only reason the BOJ is holding interest rates at .5% is because it will do anything to save insolvent Japanese banks. It is attemting to save them via the same process the US Fed used in the early 80s to save US banks from South American defaults; i.e., lower the discount rate so they can borrow cheap money from the BOJ at .5% and lend it to the US government at 6%. Given enought time, they believed that would solve their problem; after all, it worked here. That is exactly how the Fed baled out the US banks 15 years ago and that is how the BOJ thinks it can bale out its banking system, only its too far gone. Japan must allow its insolvent banks to go under, assets written down or off and viable assets sold to healthy banks. It must then cut taxes drastically to put money into the hands of the Japanese people and give them a sound banking system to keep it in so they don't send it abroad. Exports will not get it done for Japan as they have always done in the past. Japan must stimulate domestic consumption and keep capital in the country. Thats impossible with an insolvent banking system and high taxes.

As for being unable to inflate our way out of deflation, if you don't think the Federal government can print and spend enough money and pass enough legislation to put a net under every citizen in the country if the people demanded it, you haven't been paying attention for the past 33 years. Another 'Great Society' scam would do the job nicely.

Here is something that will be useful when social order breaks down. A four wheel bike that you pedal and it drives like a car. When everyone else runs out of gas, you can drive this baby to the store, to the local coin shop, or to stock up on more ammo. I suggest you don't thumb your nose at armed, angry, stranded motorists! http://www.autofever.com/rhoadescar/

The Fed put the brakes on for a very short time in 1930-6 months if I remember. Seeing their error they dropped rates on short term money to the NEGATIVE!!! ie give them $1,000 and in a few months they returned less than the $1,000 back to you!! True story! The point is that at some point in time, they can not stop a deflation. It feeds on itself.
I know a few people right now that would not buy a dow stock with 0%
money and I bet you do also. We are watching a self feeding monster in Asia right now- soon at a market near you. Gold will go up when the $US
drops. The Japanese can hardly save their banks with low rates if all the banks capital is seeking a higher return, yes/no?

Japan is indeed in a real bind. They must raise interest rates to protect the yen and keep capital from leaving their banks. But if they raise interest rates, they risk putting their economy in a worse deflationary spiral. They are in deep trouble with no solution in sight.

EJ --The last paragraph of your previous post has the gist of a world on gold and silver. I think thats what the psycological climate would be like. Opportunities would change alright, but maybe not dimmished.

Thomas Maybe somebody will find a trillion ounces of gold, then whats it worth? One can always eat good RED wheat.

Cheap production results mostly from the employment of originality and invention. I myself invented a way to weld beds which resulted in them costing 10% in labor costs. Everything gets cheaper as we get smarter.

Are you saying if the stock market tanks, nothing has really happened?
Isn't that deflationary? Will there still be thousands of tourists spending big bucks to catch a fish? People buying Condos and cars,etc?

As for the "simple minded West" what could be more simple minded than dealing with a nation accepting a gargantuen trade defficit which eventualy amounts to 200 B in T bills? Isn't that leverage on our economy? Kinda dumb maybe, and now China is in on IT.

Lots of chatter about generators today. I also have a coleman pulse 1850
which I think will run the fridge and a few lights after the fridge
starts up. We also have a 5th wheel rv with a fridge that just
sips propane. We plan to use that for food storage and COLD BEER if needed. We are used to living in a 12v world and only need the generator
to charge 2 sets of golf cart batteries. Y2k here in the desert s.w.
won't be like the folks in the frozen north. Heat for us is not a problem. A/C will be in the summer though. Am buying gas Grill propane
bottles very cheap and getting them filled. Also would have to give up
using the jacuzzi, another 50 gallons on hand there.
when buying propane bottles, check the date stamped on the top handle.
you have 12 years from that date before recertification is required.
I figur with the 3 vehicles full, and the 5 blitz jerry cans we should
have about 100 gallons on hand.
Bought an Olympus 99 backpack stove at a yard sale for $3.50. Like new!
the idiot put kerosene in it and said it did not work well.
Gee works just great on white gas! Yard sales have been a GOLD mine
for my disaster supplies.

Best Regards, O.L.

That is a very sensible and practical way to deal with any extended power outages. Many good ideas in that post.

"idiot put kerosene in it" HA! Got a good chuckle from that.

I about fell over and promptly gave him $3.50!!
We have become yard sale feinds. There is a sucker selling
every minute!!

Just after the crash of '87, I had some spare change from my T-Bond calls. Bought a 1973 Fleetwood Brougham Cadillac with all the extras for $900. It even used leaded gas. Drove that thing for 3 years without a problem. I even mounted a pair of bull horns, wrapped in red leather with brass studs, on the hood. Best car I ever had!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-06/11/155l-061198-idx.html

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin0g.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980614/australia__2.html

That story about Japanese atrocities in China was on the AP newswire. Clinton will snub Japan by going directly China without a stopover in Tokyo. Rubin has all but abandoned the Yen. The war crimes issue is a real sore spot for Japan. They are being squeezed in a BIG way right now.

People in Japan, and kibitzers like Rubin and the US Treasury Dept., have been clamoring for huge tax cuts in Japan, to get money into the hands of 'the people.' It worked for Reagan in a different economic environment, but there would be some serious difficulties implementing them in Japan. That's why the tax cut measures taken to appease the public and the Americans have been tentative, and small.

Tax cuts work when there is confidence among consumers and businesses. When there is no confidence, as surveys have been indicating in Japan, people and companies don't spend their tax windfalls. They pay down debt if they have a negative net worth and they save ( invest ) it if they are in the black. The problem is: there's nowhere to invest in Japan. Interest rates of 0.5% ( soon to be 0.1% ) are absurd when a foreign money market account can return 5%. Japanese companies are losing money and the Nikkei has been trending down for years. Japanese equities aren't going to attract tax cut windfalls. Smart Japanese investors, both individuals and companies, have been investing in the US & Europe. Tax cuts will flow from the treasury straight overseas to the US- making the US even more antsy about bond sales, so that they pester the Japaness government even more. Tax cuts are a lose-lose situation for the Japanes gov't..

The government can't raise interest rates to try & keep the money in Japan for several reasons. 1 ) If they raise interest rates even a little they will destroy what little profitability Japanese companies have left. This will be self-defeating, since the resultant losses in equity markets and flight of capital to foreign equities will counterbalance any inflows of fixed-income investment.

2 ) The Japanese gov't has a *huge* deficit and national debt. Increasing interest rates increases their own cost of servicing their debt, and that, in combination with tax cuts, can send them over the edge of a cliff called: "interest payments are larger than tax receipts." Once that happens borrowing will spiral out of control, and the borrowing has to happen, because of the public works and social spending stimuli the gov't has applied.

3 ) A Nikkei above 14,000 is very important for the banking system. Any interest rate increases will tank the Nikkei. It's easy to talk about cutting the rot out of the banking system, but the reality is that Japan is trapped. A series of bank failures will do for public confidence exactly what it did in the US in the 1930's. It will destroy it! When confidence is gone, banks refuse to lend and consumers refuse to borrow. There are signs that this is happening already. The BOJ has been surveying banks, and is finding that they are tightening their lending policies, and have cut back their lending in spite of the loosest monetary policies in Japanese history. People forget that the chronic, intractable contraction in the velocity of money that occurred in the US during the 1930's was caused more by the bank failures that destroyed the savings of people throughout every stratum of society than by the crash of 1929. You've heard the expression "what if they held a dance and nobody came?" Well, what if the government printed a bunch of money and nobody would take it. This is what happened in the 1930's.

It in fact illustrates the Achille's heel of the central banking system. The phrase "printing money" is not entirely accurate. It comes from the perception people have that money consists of the bills that they have in their wallets. Most money is created electronically. In the central banking system money is created out of nothing as a pair of accounting entries desribing a loan: a central bank asset and a client bank liability. The problem is, the liability entry on the client bank's books is like a hot potato. They have to balance their books by getting some assets, and bank assets consist mainly of reserves and loans. If banks are not confident that they can bring in the assets ( i.e. find customers who will deposit their money with them and find other customers who will borrow money and not default on their loans ) they will not take the money from the central bank. This is why the money supply continued to contract during the Great Depression in spite of attempts by the Fed to literally give away money. The strange attempt at 'negative interest rates' is one example of that- during a deflation real interest rates were still positive, and the velocity of money wasn't adequate to service the debt, even with the lender taking a smaller amount od currency back that the original principal.

Anyhow, the Japanese gov't is staring at the abyss. They're playing for time with stopgap measures to deal with each urgency as it arises, but every move they make to improve one area of the economy just makes another area worse. They've lost control.

US might need China to provide scaffolding for Japan and SEA.
However China is probably the only country in Asia that could
stand while all around falls. China will probably be polite
about the situation insist on US stabilisation of Yen.

that a true gold standard would result in a slowly rising economy, proportional to productivity increases.

Of course, this fact of hard-money life was what irked the robber barons of the turn of the century so much. They wanted a way to create money fast enough to fund their grandiose business schemes, which is why they worked so hard behind the scenes to create central banks in North America.

- Steve

Thus squeezing honourable yankies balls.

but the problem is the Chinese economy is rotting at the foundations too. The financial press is pointing out time and again that in spite of their brave pronouncements, the Chinese don't have the resources to maintain their current exchange rates, their banking system is in severe danger and productivity is too low to maintain the kinds of growth rates they need to maintain social stability.

The Chinese won't be bailing the Japanese or anybody else out. In fact it might be they rather than the Japanese who end up finally pulling the whole financial house of cards down. Have your equities sold before the Nikkei falls below 14,000 or the Chinese announce a devaluation.

- Steve

NIKKEI goes below 14000, do you mean general equities, or pm equities?

Japan will be falling harder and faster. China will remain
moderatly unscathed, except for shortterm currency volatility.
Biggest waves will definitely hit western shores and neighboring
politically unstable countries ( most of SEA ) . Nikkei has been here
late last year, and the cries go out again.
my advice, try that new improved Bubble Bath with IMF. the
bubbles are bigger and better and it all goes down the
plughole-ta-boot.

If Japan collapses, any thoughts on the effect on Gold in $US terms? Could the $ get stronger and hold down Gold? Or would the forced sale of US Treasuries knock the $ for a loop?

I think this statement means that Ecu's are backed by both the USD and Gold. It doesn't mean that there is a negative bias against it.

If the Japanese collapse and start selling T-Bils/Notes/Bonds, then I would think that interest rates would go up and stocks down. There would probably be a flight to 'cash', mostly as an instinctive reaction. As for gold, do people even know what that is anymore?

Logic would dictate that gold 'should' move up, but if deflation is the worry then 'cash' would be the place to go to. The problem is, most don't realize that cash is a debt instrument.

Damn, I just got up and my head already hurts...... :- ) )

Sunday June 14, 1:53 am Eastern Time
Hong Kong Asks U.S. To Boost Yen

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980614/hong_kong__1.html

accelerate, unless the CB raise lease rates. Question is will they raise the lease rates? They have more to lose ( with most reserves in
US dollars ) by a fall in the US dollar. So they may not raise lease rates and the POG might plummet short term. So if the Japanese collapse and cash in their T-bills, the US raises interest rates to defend the
dollar, and gold may collapse because of the gold carry trade.
Can anyone poke holes in this logic? PLEASE!!!!

Yeah, it seems NOTHING will get the $ down and Gold up. Everything that happens seems to make the $ stronger. It's F*ing aggravating!!

http://wellengaged.com/engaged/wrap.cgi/forbes.cgi?c=forbes&f=0&t=8&q=0-
As a programmer, I really don't see how all these
systems can be fixed in time. I'm not going to
predict the end of the world, but a year-long
recession is the least I can honestly imagine.

Frankly, I think the year-2000 bug will turn out
to be the West's equivalent to the collapse of
the USSR. Mercantilism in the West has become
just as much of a dinosaur as socialism was in
the USSR, and this could well be the straw that
breaks the dinosaur's back.

Looking at this problem in the long-run, I expect
that we will survive as a technically advanced
society, but that it will result in a strong
movement to eliminate the centralisation of
government and business which is the real
problem here; our lifestyles rely on so many
distant organisations functioning correctly
that we simply have no fallback position when
they fail.

The other issue, of course, will be to limit
our future reliance on computers; today we seem
to believe that computers are somehow far more
reliable than people, whether it's flying a
plane or buying and selling on the stock market.
But the problem with computers is the old one:
garbage in, garbage out.

If the Japanese sell their T-'thingies', then that will automatically raise interest rates. T-'thingies' prices will fall, yields being inverse to price, will rise. To knock those yields down, the Fed will have to 'buy' those T-'thingies' back. I think it's called 'monetizing the debt'. That is something that we haven't seen being done out in the open for a while. That would definitely get gold going in the 'right' direction. Scare a few bond folks to...

I caught some of this last move up in gold and managed to make a couple of cents on it. My emotions continue to get in the way, but I'm a recovering 'gold-aholic', so I guess I can fall off of the wagon every now and then. :- ) )

Gold will have its' day, I hope. The currency situation bears watching here. This will be our only clue. When the reversal takes place, it will be quick. That's the damn problem. Look at the SOX index. Semiconductors? Who wants 'em! ( Now, that is ) . For an eye opener take a look at Analog Devices Inc. ( ADI ) or Texas Instr. ( TXN ) . Now, turn those market breaks upside down and imagine that you are looking at the price of gold...

I don't know when that MAY happen, but that is is probably HOW it will happen. Yes, the 'towel' is being thrown in on gold. So, we must be near something. I'm just not sure of what.

How's that for a brilliant insight? :- ) )

Yup, I'm just as confused as everyone else. My solution? For the moment, T-Bills...............

Off to finish building my Ark. Eight inches of rain in less than two days.... Brother, can you spare an umbrella... :- ) )

When I first posted Friday, I indicated that I would speak on two subjects and exit. This is the second, concerning Farfel. It will end my brief writing. I will post this at several time frames today and then be gone. Please, think, but don't say, How Dare You.

I started lurking in January. It soon became apparent that the forum was different from others that I had visited. There was a pervasive level of intelligence. There was wit and tasteful humor. There was a careful discussion of one another's positions, carefully worded to suggest that one was not looking for ulterior motives, but rather for ideas. But most of all, for me, there was the magnificent Farfel. The respect for ideas and they way phrases were turned to incorporate those ideas were special for a forum. Indeed, on some busy days, I scanned only for Farfel.

Then things started to change, or perhaps I started noticing the personal attacks questioning motives and not just positions. I realize that the unwritten code is for one to defend oneself, but the onslaught against Farfel goes too far. You attackers must realize that, although your intelligence levels seem equally high, differences of opinion can occur. And you as a group must make it known when one goes to far attacking those positions. A recent case was especially wordy, snooty, and guttural: when Farfel mentioned shorts. How and why would you question it? EVEN I made money shorting in 1997: even Dell and Bankamerica, among others. One hedge fund returned 57% for the year and all it did was short. ( For those of you who demand verification, see Smartmoney about Fleckenstein earlier this year ) .

When Farfel's anguish spilled to the forum last week, I then obtained a password so I could write. Maybe some of you have noticed the more civil tone of the forum immediately following Ferfel's silence, as if there was to be an embarrased period of polite talk, as at a wake.

This did not last and some are back to their snarling ways.

The forum needs this type of eloquence. You will revert to the drivel of many other forums if you drive those such as Farfel away.

Otis

On the same page as Barons obituary for gold mutual funds the 13D
filings shows that August von Finck purchased an additonal 3 million
shares of Homestake bringing his total to almost 10% of Homestake.
I heard this man refered to as being the "Warren Buffet of Germany"
I can't believe if gold were going to $250 that von Finck would be
buying that large a position in any gold company. He must have
some inside information from German Central bankers

I bought a bunch of December T-Bond calls in August '87. Was really in the hole on the eve of the crash with long bond yields at 10%. Ended up with a tidy profit when bonds went ballistic, which I promptly spent. Never bought any Gold until about 2 years ago when it hit $400. Sometimes my timing is good, sometimes not: )

Most have come to see the Fed as controlling the economy. This is an illusion. The Fed influences the economy, and its influence varies depending on the strength of forces beyond its control. In a deflationary spiral or hyperinflation scenario, the economy is out of the Fed's hands. Both result from a loss in confidence in the banking system and the currency it uses for transactions.
-EJ

Does Robert Rubin still have his partnership stake in Goldman ( in blind trust perhaps ) ? If so it may account for his behavior in pumping up the dollar/SPX, as Goldman is a gonna go public pretty quick while there is still time.

Also, does anyone see any "strategic" value in buying out Homestake, other than as a a fairly clean play on an improving gold price?

Thanks,

HB

value. Thank you panda for your insight.

If so, I'll type it up and post it.

Sunday June 14, 4:53 am Eastern Time

Qantas suspends more flights to Asia

SYDNEY, June 14 ( Reuters ) - Australia's flagship airline Qantas Airways Ltd said on Sunday it will
suspend flights to Fukuoka, Tokyo, Jakarta, Bangkok and Vietnam but add services to Los
Angeles, Singapore, Mumbai and Bali.

Executive general manager, commercial, Geoff Dixon said in a statement the changes reflected the
impact of Asia's economic woes. ``We will monitor the situation closely with a view to reintroducing
services when demand begins to strengthen.''

He said the changes would allow Qantas to redirect capacity to growth markets, including Europe
and the United States.

``That should not be taken as any reduction in our capacity, on the contrary,'' a Qantas spokesman
told Reuters of the latest changes. He said an aircraft acquisition programme, announced in
mid-May, remains in place.

``The overall acquisition programme will add four percent in capacity a year for the next three years
internationally and domestically,'' the spokesman said.

Qantas, 25 percent owned by British Airways Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BAY.L ) , said in
the statement it will suspend its five weekly flights from Sydney to Fukuoka from October, a flight
from Sydney to Tokyo from August, and two weekly services to Vietnam from August.

It will also stop its twice weekly flights to Bangkok from Perth, and reduce its Perth-Jakarta service
to twice a week from three times a week from August.

Qantas retains some 37 weekly flights to Japan, including codeshares, and is in talks with Vietnam
Airlines on continuing to codeshare on VA's two weekly services between Australia and Vietnam.

Qantas will add two weekly flights to Los Angeles from September 11, a seventh weekly flight from
Sydney to Singapore and Mumbai from August, a fifth weekly flight from Adelaide to Singapore
from mid-August and a weekly flight from Brisbane to Denpasar from mid-August.

It will add a flight from Melbourne to Wellington from August.

In January, Qantas said it would suspend flights to South Korea owing to a dramatic drop in
passenger numbers and followed several weeks later with further suspensions elsewhere in Asia.

Ansett Australia Airlines Ltd, owned by Air New Zealand Ltd ( AIRVA.NZ ) and News Corp Ltd
( NCP.AX ) , has also suspended a number of Asian flights.

If it isn't too much trouble, I would like to see the Davidson/Rees-Mogg deflation scenario. I have all their books, and find their work thought provoking, accurate in a broad sense, but their lack of timing makes it difficult to execute specifically.

I know a guy who's wife has taken over the family investments after ten years of waiting for the "great reckoning" and following their market letter. Timing is everything.

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Appreciate it.
-EJ

Just was curious to know if anyone remembered the book. I think it accurate, but as Mike said, timing is everything.

commodities constantly offer 'another' way to play....safely.

multi-year, or historical lows......waiting, waiting......THWOCK!
the game in hand, the hunter hunts for home....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha82.gif

soy-meal.....food for what carbo-earth-anouts call food......flesh.

the vehicle matters not, only the destination.....time to buy options
on grains....

pboys....poiabwyfb.....you know what i mean?

cherokee!;...morabah....ftbr.

To quote the gentleman in your post:

The net result of all this is the opportunity to

simplify your life by reducing your vulnerabilites,

cleaning up your finances and prepare for a much

slower pace of life and fewer opportunities.

That scenario would be lovely, and please tell me if

I'm wrong in my thinking BUT the problem, however

insignicant looking to some, will be hugely

exacerbated by the people who DO NOT make

preparations and are caught with their financial

and personal pants down and dragging. Millions upon

millions of whole families will be in dire straits.

If anyone here has any opinions on DeBeers. Would you please fax me @ msb-bcm-no1@worldnet.att.net.

Also, anyone in NZ care to comment on Fletcher Energy or Fletcher Building please contact at above address.

Thanks

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1184676

of the 4 wheel bike getting you to the store

( if you can't get gas, neither can the

delivery trucks ) but I do see it as a great

alternative to the wheelbarrow or kiddie

wagon for foraging water, wood, you know,

that kind of stuff.

Deflation is a Long-Term Process by Davidson/Rees-Mogg

Page 351 of The Great Reckoning

By studying past booms and collapses, we have identified at least a few of the regularities that seem to be at work from one episode to another. The process works something like this:

The Inflationary Stage........

1. Some shock often a war, sets the process in motion by disturbing the system. It alters property rights, encourages monetary instability, and raises real asset prices.

2. This leads to extraordinarily high rates of return in real assets, especially for debtors, who gain disproportionately. The high rates of return seem to justify massive new investment.

3. A credit binge ensues, as people borrow at accelerated rates to capture the extraordinary profits. Real estate, in particular, rises in value.

4. Institutions and contracts are adjusted to reflect the inflation. Debt maturities shorten. Nominal and real interest rates rise.

5. Nonetheless, a credit binge continues, as investors now accustomed to high rates of return calculate that they can continue to earn supernormal profits.

6. Financial as well as real assets are purchased on a basis of increasing leverage, and a bull market in stocks follows, though not yet a drooling frenzy.

Then Comes the Deflationary Stage...........

7. Profitability declines toward more normal levels as investment matures and new output is brought onto the market.

8. Commodity prices decline.

9. The farm economy goes into recession.

10. Interest rates fall, and as they do, hot money moves into financial assets, further stimulating the stock market.

11. As opportunities in the real economy subside, investment is concentrated on financial assets, leading to a stock market blow-off.

12. The boom is self-limiting because debt contracted at high interest rates compounds faster than income, eventually requiring that owners of leveraged assets liquefy their holdings, thus driving asset prices down.

13. Real estate sags.

14. Some trigger such as credit squeeze, a major bankruptcy, fraud, or simply the slowing of the real economy reveals the overvaluation of assets.

15. The stock market crashes, credit contraction intensifies, the money supply implodes, and depression ensues, with returns on previous investment falling to subnormal rates.

16. Real interest rates skyrocket, even as nominal interest rates fall, further reducing economic activity.

17. Unemployment skyrockets because real wage rates rise.

18. Wages and prices are cut as the system winds down.

19. Bingo. You have been in deflation for some time.

It must be stressed that Davidson does go on to discuss timing, and, at the time of his writing, said there was evidence that the world was well into the early stages of deflation as 1993 began. He goes on to list his arguments, but I wont write them here.

Deflation is a Long-Term Process by Davidson/Rees-Mogg
Page 351 of The Great Reckoning

By studying past booms and collapses, we have identified at least a few of the regularities that seem to be at work from one episode to another. The process works something like this:

The Inflationary Stage........

1. Some shock often a war, sets the process in motion by disturbing the system. It alters property rights, encourages monetary instability, and raises real asset prices.

2. This leads to extraordinarily high rates of return in real assets, especially for debtors, who gain disproportionately. The high rates of return seem to justify massive new investment.

3. A credit binge ensues, as people borrow at accelerated rates to capture the extraordinary profits. Real estate, in particular, rises in value.

4. Institutions and contracts are adjusted to reflect the inflation. Debt maturities shorten. Nominal and real interest rates rise.

5. Nonetheless, a credit binge continues, as investors now accustomed to high rates of return calculate that they can continue to earn supernormal profits.

6. Financial as well as real assets are purchased on a basis of increasing leverage, and a bull market in stocks follows, though not yet a drooling frenzy.

Then Comes the Deflationary Stage...........

7. Profitability declines toward more normal levels as investment matures and new output is brought onto the market.

8. Commodity prices decline.

9. The farm economy goes into recession.

10. Interest rates fall, and as they do, hot money moves into financial assets, further stimulating the stock market.

11. As opportunities in the real economy subside, investment is concentrated on financial assets, leading to a stock market blow-off.

12. The boom is self-limiting because debt contracted at high interest rates compounds faster than income, eventually requiring that owners of leveraged assets liquefy their holdings, thus driving asset prices down.

13. Real estate sags.

14. Some trigger such as credit squeeze, a major bankruptcy, fraud, or simply the slowing of the real economy reveals the overvaluation of assets.

15. The stock market crashes, credit contraction intensifies, the money supply implodes, and depression ensues, with returns on previous investment falling to subnormal rates.

16. Real interest rates skyrocket, even as nominal interest rates fall, further reducing economic activity.

17. Unemployment skyrockets because real wage rates rise.

18. Wages and prices are cut as the system winds down.

19. Bingo. You have been in deflation for some time.

It must be stressed that Davidson does go on to discuss timing, and, at the time of his writing, said there was evidence that the world was well into the early stages of deflation as 1993 began. He goes on to list his arguments, but I wont write them here.

again a few months back, after selling out in 1985 and ignoring it ever since. I used to be a journalist and I learned this from the experience: journalists are historians. Journalists do not report coming events or even current events. They report events that are over, trends that are completed, spent. When you read the cover of Time Magazine in 1989 that Japan Inc. is the model for capitalism in the next century, you know that Japan is doomed.

As they are the trailing indicator of the last event, journalists are also a leading indicator of some coming event. Sometimes the next event is simply the reversal of the trend they are reporting. So, when I read Gold is Dead I start to look around and see what's behind the story behind the story. That's when I found Kitco and began to read everything I could get my hands on.

The story behind the story is a big one: 60 years of inflationary growth and debt accumulation in the world capitalist economy is close to reversal. Nearly 40 years of relative peace and political stability is coming to an end. Economic and political instability and some degree of chaos will prevail during a period of transition. Only Gold will store wealth reliably during this period, which may last as little as five or as long as 20 years.
-EJ

"II. Organization

The delicate organisation by which these peoples lived
depended partly on factors internal to the system.
The interference of frontiers and of tariffs was reduced to a
minimum, and not far short of three hundred millions of people
lived within the three empires of Russia, Germany, and
Austria-Hungary. The various currencies, which were all
maintained on a stable basis in relation to gold and to one
another, facilitated the easy flow of capital and of trade to an
extent the full value of which we only realise now, when we are
deprived of its advantages. Over this great area there was an
almost absolute security of property and of person."

http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/keynes/peace.htm

I have a friend in the coin dealer biz in a town ( population under 50k ) I inquired about sales recently.

He was all too happy to tell me that business was booming. He had sold over $20k in junk silver to a guy the day before and gold bullion coins were going out the door at a phenomenal rate ( silver wasn't doing too bad either ) His commission rate would not be considered favorable to a knowledgable collector. Very telling, don't you think?

I agree that it is not a negative [with regards to the noble metal].
I translated it as facing gold and the US Dollar; meaning that gold and US dollar were benchmarking ECU/EURO creation. When one looks at the currency data, it is very suggestive of this facing algorithm.

However, one feels uncomfortable with the backing of the Euro with either gold or dollars. Gold and dollars willwithout doubtbe reserve assets. One would feel astonishment and shock, should Europa back it currency with USD; and backing Euro with gold brings more discipline than Eurocrats are willing to accept. Had the MedClub not being included in the first round of entrants, the probabilities for substantial gold backing would have been higher-because Germany feels less uncomfortable with gold than her neighbors.

What Im searching for now, through the many thousands of pages, is the unwinding procedure that will be executed on the conversion [actual] of ECU to Euro, and which is explicitly mentioned as such in the 23.2 paragraph.

with most of their limited savings in the stock market.

I send them an email letter titled: Unsolicited Advice. It tells them to pay off their debts by any means necessary, get out of the stock market ( even if it means missing the Summer rally on the bubble ) , get their cash ing FDIC money market accounts, bonds, and gold. The letter's quite long so I will not post it here. It has been effective.

The fact that Americans do not have savings and have debt instead, unlike our Japanese counterparts, means our recession will become a depression much more quickly. We just don't have the reserves the Japanese have.
-EJ

Dod Gamnit!!! Screw this Job ( as in the layin' in ashes-Bible ) frikkin' deal! Pestilence Abounds!!!!!! The Gods have sent me 10 dollar oil, 280 dollar gold, fifty cents rangy and now...frikkin' tornados!. I REPENT!!!!!!Damnit! Listen to me......I REPENT!!!!!!!!!

Total destruction of the boat docks 5 blocks south of this house.....our house was full of wide-eyed partyin' kids when IT hit, about a dozen from parts that had never heard of TORNADOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Booze helped us make it through. Probably will get golphers in the back yard now....that'll finish me off. Back to the parent trap-ped by college kids.

Maybe crabs?.........studio.

Here is verbatim quote from Bill Murphy of VENEROSO ASSOCIATES:

"Our information is that it was the Swiss National Bank who bought gold for a customer.
Of interest is that the SNB hit the golden-eagle web-site out of nowhere about 10 days
ago over 20 times in two days. Then all this news comes out.
We have heard for some time the Japanese have been buying gold but could not get a
handle on this information until recently. Smoke is coming out of everywhere. First we
heard ( from our sources ) of the Swiss buying in London. Then we heard from a South
African source that an Asian government was buying ( 400 tonnes ) and the source
hinted strongly it was Japanese. Today, we hear from a third source that our info was
correct about Asian central bank buying, but would not name the country or tonnage.
The reason given for the gold buying was the country wanted to bolster the currency
with gold because they saw what has happened to the Canadian and Australian
currencies as a result of their gold dumpings.
And finally out of nowhere, the Japanese recently bombarded the golden-eagle site.
If this is true, the Japanese should want to announce this some time after they are done
buying. This will alert our Treasury people that they are now considering reserves other
than dollars. If this is so, and an Asian backlash develops against the imperialists
Americans,other Asian countries could follow suit and also buy gold for the same
reasons. An actual buy and the potential of future buying, would be quite something and
could give the gold market and enormous psychological lift."

When I first posted Friday, I indicated that I would speak on two subjects and exit. This is the second, concerning Farfel. It will end my brief writing. I will post this at several time frames today and then be gone. Please, think, but don't say, How Dare You.

I started lurking in January. It soon became apparent that the forum was different from others that I had visited. There was a pervasive level of intelligence. There was wit and tasteful humor. There was a careful discussion of one another's positions, carefully worded to suggest that one was not looking for ulterior motives, but rather for ideas. But most of all, for me, there was the magnificent Farfel. The respect for ideas and they way phrases were turned to incorporate those ideas were special for a forum. Indeed, on some busy days, I scanned only for Farfel.

Then things started to change, or perhaps I started noticing the personal attacks questioning motives and not just positions. I realize that the unwritten code is for one to defend oneself, but the onslaught against Farfel goes too far. You attackers must realize that, although your intelligence levels seem equally high, differences of opinion can occur. And you as a group must make it known when one goes to far attacking those positions. A recent case was especially wordy, snooty, and guttural: when Farfel mentioned shorts. How and why would you question it? EVEN I made money shorting in 1997: even Dell and Bankamerica, among others. One hedge fund returned 57% for the year and all it did was short. ( For those of you who demand verification, see Smartmoney about Fleckenstein earlier this year ) .

When Farfel's anguish spilled to the forum last week, I then obtained a password so I could write. Maybe some of you have noticed the more civil tone of the forum immediately following Ferfel's silence, as if there was to be an embarrased period of polite talk, as at a wake.

This did not last and some are back to their snarling ways.

The forum needs this type of eloquence. You will revert to the drivel of many other forums if you drive those such as Farfel away.

Otis

"For the majority of stock markets, 1929 represented a rally within a downtrend. Most countries which were tied to Germany economically saw their market tops in 1920, not 1929. The most spectacular rise in stock values during the bull market of the 1920s came in Germany, and both Belgium and France had larger bull market rallies than the United States had. Of all the world's stock markets, the United States had the largest stock market decline after 1929. This is why the 1929 crash is remembered so well in the United States. In many countries, the stock market indices did not recover their 1929 highs until the 1950s. Many of the stock markets which did recover their 1929 highs before the 1950s did so only because of inflation. Some markets have never regained their 1929 highs in real terms. For some countries, the 1929-1932 bear market was not the worst one in history. Germany's stock market fell by over 97% during the hyperinflation of 1922, and London's decline in 1973-1974 was worse than the decline in 1929-1932. "
http://www.globalfindata.com/may.htm

Studio.R@Chaos.Central
Are you going to change your 'handle' to Job? {:- ) )
And remember, John Dryden's observation my friend,
"Repentance is but want of power to sin." {:- ) )
signed, yours for Higher Oil, Higher Gold,
Happy Children and Quiet Nests

they have still a few more options. One of those is to raise interest rates. How could Japan keep their interest rates so low and stay with their "laissez faire" policy towards the Yen-Dollar-Carry? This thing does much more damage than the Gold-Dollar-Carry. Are they not free to act in their own best interest?
Without raising interest rates close to the international level which is directed mostly by the US interest rate they have no chance to stop the depletion of their capital market.
I get the impression they are forced by some unknown pressure to act against their own interest. What seems very suspicious to me is that people like Rubin seem to like the idea that the Japanese captial market supports the high dollar value. The Yen-Dollar-Carry supports the artificially high dollar value.
What else does it do?
I think this financial mechanism creates Yen ( out of thin air ) and sucks away dollars. Doesn't that sound like a support mechanism for keeping the American bubble alive?
Are the Japanese so stupid not to know that or are they forced to do that? I don't think they are stupid. So I conclude that they are forced to. But what is the kind of force? Who has the power to decide upon Japanese interest rates?
It is possible that the tow financial houses, the American and the Japanese, are architectured together in some strange way which we don't know about?

1. Germany[the Euros beating heart]: to clear reunification debt, position for aging population, get-out-from under the tyranny of the dollar, establish European hegemony as an economic reality.

2. Japan---to regain face, refurbish banking system, position for aging population, get-out-from under the tyranny of the dollar, revalue their currency to world status, prepare for tri-polar currency world.
[Would it not be reasonable to suggest that a currency expected to be a World Currency--as explicitly, clearly stated in Europa & Committee of 23 documents here posted--would find it expedient to revalue so that it was worth more than the Italian lira? {:- )

3. China? What IS Chinas agenda
Please amend, add at will!

CNN was reporting that the exchange rate of yen/$ could go as high as 160:1 by year-end. I would think someone ( US ) would step in to stop this before we have a roaring flood of cheap imports. I'm all for cheap prices provided I have a job.

CNN was reporting that the exchange rate of yen/$ could go as high as 160:1 by year-end. I would think someone ( US ) would step in to stop this before we have a roaring flood of cheap imports. I'm all for cheap prices provided I have a job.

GLENN: Thanks for your in depth response! You do make a convincing case and momentum certainly is on your side. But I do feel we are approaching a sea change in global economic and financial policy designed to prevent depression in Japan, Russia, and much of Asia from dragging down the US and Europe. When the markets get wind of this expect sudden reversals of all extant trends. But who knows how low POG will drop before this happens?

who would think thou might sit on his own thing on earth and in Heaven too, be damned.

This suggests that increasing gold reserves will be the mechanism that Japan, China, and other Asian nations will adopt to buffer their currencies from an overvalued dollar. Rrrrrradical.
-EJ

Yen at 160 means new lows for POG.

The COT on gold is incredibly bullish yet the price falls. If you had gone short when the commercials went short you would have made almost an immediate killing. Something to remember.

Is this Japan purchase for real or jusy wishful thinking. If so, when will it be announced. Any guesses??

Is there a strain developing between US and Japan and now we are running to China to be the anchor. It hard to believe that the press isnt crucifying Clinton over his trip given recent revelations.

Is the PPT losing control? History has been pretty bullish for triple witch expirarions. Will we repeat? It is certainly what the doctor ordered Friday ala obvious PPT action. How many times have we seen it. Are events begginning to overwhelm.

Shocked to hear that Y2K problem could trigger accidental nuclear exchange. The answer is to substitute 1900 for 2000 and start over again.

Each month golden-eagle beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary
market commentary and analysis submitted to it. We have two goals in
mind in establishing the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT for extraordinary
work. Firstly, to formally recognize the generous sharing of the analyst's considerable knowledge and time in preparing thought-provoking studies ( we are talking many long hours of research, analysis and verbalization to perfect an insightful report ) . And lastly, to aid the rapidly expanding golden-eagle readership to zero in on the most outstanding posts in its many webpages ( now more than 700 ) .

Following are the SPOTLIGHT AWARDS for January, February March,
April and May:

January - John Kutyn
February - Ted Butler
March - Todd J. Heuskin
April - Richard Ackerman
May - Joseph M. Miller

Their critically-acclaimed and insightful reports may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/awards/spotlight.html

Thanks for the excellent posts both on Farfel and Y2K.

Farfel's appearance here, for me as well, was the main reason I have continued to ( mostly ) lurk here. And since I don't have much to contribute, the vicious attacks on him ( mostly when gold is headed down ) elicited my angry responses to his detractors.

Farfel: We long-term gold people don't belong on this forum to be used as convenient subjects of sadistic derision. No doubt when the tables turn, those "experts" will slither back under their rocks never to be heard from again. But in the meantime, how about starting your own group for us since we don't care, we're buying more.

BigOtis: Thanks again. Would love to read more from you. I'm also a 30 year programmer whose ideas on Y2K differ somewhat from yours, but your way of expressing them provides for civil exchange.

London Times a story in the World section has this headline ....ISOTOPE CLOUD DRIFTED OVER EUROPE..... http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1124027.

Has anyone here done any research on TVX Gold. I would appreciate any input.

small children playing on the lawn...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...out to pull gold from their ears...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...

Unstoppable...

If this is true, Jap buying gold, I suspect they are using dollars. Is this the beginning of the dollar dump?

I have zero input on the subject...try Dines...I believe he has an interest in the matter...at gold - eagle..................

A few days ago on Euronews ( a Pro-UN, One World, CNN-type news broadcast ) I heard something in this regard. I immediately thought of that 8.4 explosion/quake. The news tried to compare it to Chernobyl, but really they didn't give it hardly any significance. The show repeats more or less every  hour. I watched the next hour to try to catch it again, but it wasn't mentioned again.

Maybe the US dropped a bomb on some of them fighting cats.

Thomas yesterday ( Saturday ) said something to the effect that disparaging Western Society was the 'fashion' on this forum. As one who has made negative comments about the West, my culture, I should like to take a moment to address his comment.

To analyze, to examine minutely, to scrutinize, to investigate, inspect, probe, requires an objectivity that compels one to accept facts that one might be happier to rationalize away. Objectivity demands a ledger sheet, which accommodates liabilities as well as assets; no bookkeeping system serves that counts only inflows, ignoring outflows.

From World Gold Council:

Gold Flash
News & Press Releases




NEWS
FLASH

11 June
1998

Archive



Consensus that European Central Bank
should hold 10-15% of its reserves in gold

At a press conference following the inaugural meeting of the
European Central Banks ( ECBs ) Governing Council, its
President, Wim Duisenberg, stated that, although a formal decision on the
matter had yet to be taken, a consensus existed for the ECB to hold between
10% and 15% of its reserves in gold.

Although the price fell back some $6 on the news, it had recovered somewhat
by the close. One important reason for the fall was that rumours - based on
no objective facts - had been circulating earlier in the day that the figure
would be 27.5% ( very much at the high end of any previous guesstimates ) .
There was naturally an adverse reaction when Duisenberg quoted a lower
total.

Despite the initial market disappointment, the news is positive for gold:

The ECB is the worlds most modern central bank. For it to include a
respectable amount of gold in its portfolio is a significant vote of
confidence in golds continuing role as a monetary asset.
The majority of member states gold will remain in national hands.
Contrary to some commentators statements, however, this does not
mean that they will be free to do whatever they like with it.
Members remaining foreign reserves are all potentially callable by
the ECB and are thus in effect controlled by the System. This is why
the ECB will draw up guidelines outlining the freedom national
central banks will have to transact independently. Above a certain
yet-to-be determined amount, they will have to seek the ECBs
approval and it is hard to believe that the latter will - certainly in the
Banks early years - countenance large-scale sales which could have
an impact on the value of its own holdings.
It is very significant that Duisenberg - in his scripted remarks and not
simply as an impromptu answer to a question - referred to gold at all.
The Council has been urging the ECB to be as transparent as
possible in its policy towards gold in order to minimize market
uncertainty. Given that no statement at all was necessary until a
formal decision has been taken, it appears that he may have been
listening to our arguments.

In summary, the statement confirms that European central bankers view gold
as a respectable - indeed, indispensable - reserve asset for the 21st century.

I have found great value in the comments ( not always in agreement, buts thats what is the beauty of this forum ) of people who are thinking about monitary matters, like our friends Vronsky, Farfel and other too numerous to mention. Much better commentary and insight than the drivel coming out of the average newstand, TV broadcast, or Mutual Fund marking organization. Keep it up.

The Miller commentary, recomended by Vronsky is a fine long term perspective on Gold. The Japanese ( if they have purchased that 400 tonnes ) are sending a signal that will ultimatly shock the current fiat system to its core. Given that they have not held gold, are now deep in the glue, have a massive dependancy on the US$, their action to buy Gold ( all be it a little ) is more significant that the EMU announcing 10 - 15% backing. That was expected. European peoples have long held personal value in Gold. Therefore, the Japanese reversal is more significant. The signal will be out. Keep the Miller commentary in mind when news of the Japanese actions come out, and lets see if they follow it up with more.

Watch for a US counter attack. Perhaps some thinly veiled assurances from the Chinese that they ( the Chinese ) will stay pegged to the US$. The Chinese are not to be trusted, and are smarter negotiators than the current US leaders. So that tactic is suspect if announced, and will in all likelyhood, be short lived.

hot topic when Drudge reported it,someone who was following that story as well,just destroyed a perfectly good conspiracy,by saying that the Swiss first reported the cloud around June 1/2nd Drudges story broke the following week....it was good while it lasted

I have returned from Europe to revisit the periodic character assassination that, lamentably, has surfaced like a plague to infect this site with the uncivil behavior that characterizes my own profession. Over the past 15 years or so, academia has been suffering from the so-called "culture wars," a condition that has virtually deprived universities of any claim to objectivity and common respect for opposing views. My own politics ( which is to say I have no politics ) places this sorry state in the camp of the new ideologues ( usually Marxists, feminists, revisionist historians, pop-culture fanatics and the liked ) who have created a new McCarthyism whereby dissent is regarded as unacceptable. If you regard my view as hyperbolic, read John Ellis new book "Literature Lost" or David Lehmans "Signs of the Times" for some depressing accounts of the intolerance that now dominates our campuses. Or you just might ask your sons and daughters whether they are willing to oppose the prevailing catechism that the academic left espouses.

So I must with regret add my name to the list of those who have been shocked by the boorish attitudes of those who have trashed farfel. As an occasional contributor, I have enjoyed the informed speculations of Old Gold, JTF, Alberich the Dwarf, SIDr and others who can ruminate without vilification. I for one will not post any further until civilized discourse returns to this site.

about...playing with children and rolling around the lawn with dogs... Oh that life...it is such funny stuff...go out and be KIND...

watching gold sprout from yittle ears...introductions of magic...

WE cAN...We sHALL...overcome all...

JOY to ALL.........................

Regarding the article from World Gold Council: sorry for quoting myself, but what is what I wrote some time ago:
Mar 20 1998 14:50 - "In relation with EMI [European Monetary Institute, predecessor of ECB], we where thinking that about 15% of external reserves will be in gold."
Mar 29 1998 17:08 - "few days ago there was a message in press [from Italy] about 30%.  IMO, after this 30%, if finally figure will be less, it can have negative effect."
Apr 11 1998 13:37 - "ECB forms external reserves - EURO 50 B maximum. Part of it will be in Gold. Most probable figure for now is 15%."
And it remains 15%.

I fully concur. Kitco was a place of calm intellectual discussion regarding the future of gold and other precious metals. Now a simple discussion of the possible low results in personal insults and childish name calling. I have had my say in defence of my views and will allow the name callers to call me anything they feel expresses their views without correcting their errors or responding in kind for the remainder of the summer.

gagnrad - Next week will determine whether my optimism is justified. If not, I'll just change the channels ( and adjust my portfolio accordingly ) . :- )

Scenarios that could prove me wrong:

Silver - The new upward-trending channel is based on the assumption that since gold and platinum are at the bottoms of their respective channels, silver must be too. If silver breaks down further, back down to the bottom of the previous downward-trending channel, it is highly likey that gold will break through its channel bottom, and head significantly lower. At the first sign that this is happening, I'll immediately exit all precious metals positions 100% and batten down the hatches.

Platinum - The risk here is that palladium will break its uptrend. If this happens, I think platinum would drop further, perhaps even down to the price of gold. This possiblity warrants close attention.

For the moment, I'm invested as the channels that I posted dictate. Can't say I'm not nervous though.

Cheers.

Agree with your statement entirely and IMVHO, DOA ( Dead on Arrival )

Sunday June 14, 11:14 am Eastern Time

China wants U.S. to drop high-tech trade barriers

By Justin Jin

BEIJING, June 14 ( Reuters ) - China hopes the United States would further remove barriers to
technology exports and financial credits, the Chinese ambassador to the United States was quoted
on Sunday as saying in Beijing.

``China hopes the United States will do more to remove artificial barriers to its technology exports
and financial credits to China so that their trade imbalance could be corrected,'' Xinhua news agency
quoted Li Zhaoxing as saying at an interview with the official magazine Outlook.

Li was speaking ahead of U.S. President Bill Clinton's visit to China from June 25 to July 3.

Although China has had trade surpluses with the United States since 1993, Li was quoted as saying
Washington exaggerated the differences.

The United States has said Beijing's trade surplus with Washington hit $50 billion in 1997.

Sino-U.S. trade and economic relations were complementary, Li said, because China's exports to
the United States were mainly labour-intensive with low added values, while U.S. exports to China
were largely technology-intensive, he said.

``With its economic development, China is both willing and capable to increase imports from the
United States,'' Li said.

Li also said at the interview, to be published on Monday, that although most U.S. Congressmen
were friendly towards China, a small number of them were biased against it, especially on the Tibet
issue.

``Whenever the two countries enjoy a good relationship, there must appear some people who are
less than happy,'' he said.

``They always try to drag Sino-U.S. relations to the mire of U.S. domestic politics, looking for
excuses and finding faults by all means in an attempt to harm Sino-U.S. relations,'' he said.

``For example, ignorant as they are about Tibet's geographical position, its basic history and present
situation, they have elaborated in bombastic talks on the so-called Chinese government's violation of
culture and human rights in Tibet.''

Washington recognises Tibet as a part of China but is pressing Beijing to preserve the Himalayan
region's cultural and religious heritage and to resume dialogue with the exiled spiritual leader, the
Dalai Lama.

China says Tibet has progressed dramatically since the Dalai Lama fled into exile in India in 1959.

The United States says China continues to commit serious human rights abuses in the region and has
expressed concern about controls on religion, the influx of Chinese, and illiteracy rates among
Tibetans.

``Some people, with never a glimpse at the clauses of religious freedom in China's constitution, made
fierce attack on the 'religious persecution' in China,'' Li said.

Clinton will be the first U.S. president to set foot on China since the Chinese army crushed
pro-democracy demonstrations around Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989. Recently, China has
shown a new willingness to engage the West in dialogue on human rights.

Li said some ignorant people in the United States have ``cooked up stories about U.S. companies
illegally transferring missile technology to China.''

The U.S. Congress is probing a decision by Clinton to allow Loral Space and Communications Ltd,
whose chairman is a big donor to the Democrats, to launch a U.S. satellite on a Chinese rocket
while the firm was being investigated for possible transfer of sensitive missile technology to China.

Clinton's trip is dogged by allegations that Chinese aerospace executive Liu Chaoying, a daughter of
China's former top military commander General Liu Huaqing, illegally contributed to the Democrat's
1996 election campaign. China has denied the allegation.

I have lurked and posted a few times over the last year. I have a perspective on gold that I want to share FWIW. We view the price of gold in $US currency due to the total domination of the US$ worldwide. Whether we like it or not others in the world have identified the US$ as the means to measure value in their own currency. Due to the strength of the dollar the value of gold as a measure is the second choice rather than the first choice. I say this because in dollar terms the price of gold has been going down against the US$ rather than being stable We here at Kitco are over wrought with this decreasing price because we hold our gold in a US$ measurement. What of your dollar denominated assets, have they not appreciated Vs other world assets? In Southeast Asia those that held gold have maintained their wealth and most importantly their purchasing power. IMHO that which comes in the economic future for all of us, be it inflation or deflation, in any extreme, we all lose. All must get a grip on one's expectations and reality of these chaotic times. To me gold is all about independence from that elitist that know much more than I on the complexity of the economy. Gold will measure not how much one makes during the ensuing chaos but rather how little one loses. Balanced thinking about gold is about surviving the chaos and holding on to your accomplishments in this life.

IMHO

Consider for a moment that Japan is willing to stage a major currency play to restart it's failing economy. They have enormous savings at home which can be mobilized, enough to move their economy once again ahead. But because of these same savings, they can take their time and do it right.

First, BOJ and other banks buy and hold enormous quantities of USD denominated debt. They allow their own currency to drift low and lower, enjoying both a terrific real interest rate and a tremendous currency play. Together, these bring enormous profits and hold up banks which are sitting on otherwise unsafe ground. [this has already occurred]

When they feel the time is right, they buy up gold at fire-sale prices. They are, remember, the ones with the money, the creditor nation, perplexing economists everywhere with the wondering why they're doing so poorly when they're doing so well. This gold is used to back the currency, in a manner yet to be announced. The IMF has made it clear, as well as other writers, that a three-legged currency system is being put in place, the Yen, the Euro, the USD. They are setting the stage for making the yen the new Asian currency. [this is rumoured to be occurring now]

The final step is for the BOJ to support the yen. Perhaps the announcement of increased gold backing, a revaluation, whatever. It will probably be in a form that is symbolicly important to their own people, and a bit mystifying to us. The message will go out to their banks, buy yen. They have demonstrated in the 80's an amazing discipline, which was demonstrated in their expansion then. The banks buy yen, the yen rises. Possibly it will be supported by higher interest rates, making the USD look like a bad choice for their own investment. This money coming home to roost is used to restimulate the economy at home, before the problem really gets out of hand. [patience. these guys routinely plan, even at the corporate level, 200 years into the future. remember?}

If the Chinese currency, yuan, suffers a major hit during the early phase of this, so much the better! They are, after all, the real competitor for dominance of the Asian markets. [bingo!]

This scenario makes sense because gold moves from weak hands to strong ones. At the moment, all fears to the contrary, the Japanese hold the strong hand. They are the world's great creditor nation. Everything else is just poker. Where my thinking differs from much of what I read, is that I believe the real game has shifted from US/Japan to China/Japan. Maybe it always was.

Any comments?

Your analysis rings with Churchilian logic and clarity!

I printed it and will send copies to Jesse et al. This is a worse mess than I thought. I should have read further into the code. Thank you for this analysis, Charlie

lrg supposed to be leg

From Friday...some radical ideas to save Japan from its rapidly developing downward spiral. It will take radical economic moves for Japan to save itself from ruin since, to date, its adherence to the "gentlemanly" rules of American-styled international capitalism is NOT working. Without adopting a radical economic agenda, Japan will be consigned to slow, inexorable deterioration culminating in economic oblivion since it is all too apparent that Rubin and Greenspan have no intention of intervening to assist Japan in any way shape or form...at least not until Japan is in a state of total ruin.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.12, 1998

This morning, Insana on CNBC discussed the possibility of Japan selling off its Treasuries, repatriating capital, then raising interest rates high enough to compete with American rates such that Japanese capital no longer would have any incentive to flee home.

He dismissed the notion as tantamount to "economic war" with the US...something he imagined Japan would never contemplate.

Well...in my mind, America has already declared economic war with Japan via its non-interventionist stance in the Japanese Yen's free-fall. By Rubin telling Japan that America has no intention in assisting them with their economic problems ( It's Your Problem, buddy, Not Mine! ) , then the Japanese must surely imagine themselves to be the NO.1 suckers in the world...passively and stupidly holding a massive amount of US Treasury debt while, at the same time, keeping domestic interest rates so low that domestic capital has absolutely no incentive to "stay home."

There is only one plausible solution to Japan's woes...a radical economic strategy to cure its US Dollar addiction. It must sell its US Treasuries quickly while at the same time hiking interest rates well above American levels. In the competitive interest rate war that results, Japan cannot win UNLESS it demands at least partial payment for its products in a "nation-neutral" asset such as Gold...and also insists it will pay for its vital imports ( such as oil ) in partial payments of Gold. Thus, the net effect is that Japan need not be compelled to buy any gold, using gold received for exports to pay for gold necessary for imports ( an imperative condition since Japan has no indigenous in-ground reserves ) ...it forces its trading partners to buy the Yellow. By doing so, Japan drastically reduces its need for American dollars and raises world demand for both Yen and Gold. It leaves its trading partners holding all those fabulous US Dollar surpluses rather than holding them itself ( then they can learn for themselves what all those US dollars are truly worth ) . Since Japan supplies so many vital products across the world, then I think most of its trading partners ( except the US ) would agree to this condition. With the Gold price rapidly appreciating, Japan would garner real wealth gains too.

The entire strategy would allow Japan to pave the road toward a more realistic global currency system as US Dollar hegemony is causing far too many distortions in the world economy today.

Although this is a radical prescription and ( as Insana says ) would certainly be tantamount to economic war, nevertheless, I think a radical measure must ( and will ) be undertaken by Japan to escape its escalating malaise leading which must ultimately lead to all-out Depression.

For those America-Love-It-Or-Leave-IT chauvinists who doubt Japan's ability or resolve to embark on such a "suicidal mission," then they need only reflect upon the hara kiri mentality of the Japanese people. Remember the suicidal Japanese bombers from WWII?

Rubin is playing with fire in refusing to intervene actively and beneficially in the Japanese free-fall. His pro-America, pro-Wall Street orientation at any cost will certainly spell the downfall of the extant American-dominated global economic status quo. As such, he will have the notable honor of being memorialized as the worst Treasury Secretary in America's history.

In the past, the Japanese have proven that, if push comes to shove and their backs are pressed to the wall, their own lives and welfare are secondary to national pride.

Fireworks ahead.

Thanks.

F*

I'm still working on it. We have legislative manipulation and finacial manipulation and i have to get my head's manipulation organized. Many thanx, Charlie

Sometime this week someone mentioned the book Trader's Edge by Noble, but I can't find the post now and forgot who it was by. So I'll post this to everyone and hopefully this pool of talent can straighten me out.

My confusion is with the split opening Noble mentions on pg. 63-65. In the example he uses he claims "the June 21 closing range was 6.78-6.75. The next day's opeing range for july beans was 6.76 1/2 and 6.78" On the chart he provides I don't see the June 21 range. It looks like 6.78-6.70 to me. Which would put the 7/22 opening out of the range. Does anyone agree with this?

His chart is 30 minute periods - its not clear to me if he is defining the opening as the whole 30 min. period or not. If he is - then the first period of 7/22 must be inside the last period of 7/21 to have a split opening? Once we have the split, the trading strategy kicks in once the break out of the opening occurs. Fade the upper resistance zone and buy the lower support zone?

Anyone have any experience with this trading strategy? Has anyone tried it with daytrading stocks?

This is a great book - I've used the pivot formuals alot they work very well.

I think, current POG drop has, among other possible reasons, a very simple cause - concern, what is going to happened with Gold, that remains in European national CBs. ECB Gold share is only a small fraction of current reserves of European CBs. ECB will be able to control national CBs purchase or sale only after Jan 1. Currently and till the end of the year every national CB is free to sell, lend, or whatever.

In one of my posts I made on Friday, I suffered a momentary case of "typing much slower than my mind thinks."

As a result, I described Clinton as "a Democrat in Republican clothing."

This description was notably erroneous...

Rather, CLINTON IS A REPUBLICAN IN DEMOCRAT'S CLOTHING.

Just a clarification but it makes a world of difference.

Thanks.

F*

You nailed it! Eloquent.

IF ONE AMERICAN is lost due to his stupidty...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Contemplating dimples on golf balls on the Island that is Long...

Dogs make far greater sense...out to the lawn...

Thanks for your various compliments.

Big Otis, your devil's advocate position on Y2K is a most intellectually compelling addition to this forum.

Voyeur Professor, I remain one of your biggest fans!

Dave in CO, keep fighting for what you know in your heart is right.

Thanks.

F*

Promethius: Great post! Japan does have alot to gain by pushing the US dollar up so that their US treasury sales get the most gold. This is exactly what any big investor would do if he were to unload his position -- too large for a simple single sale. China, of course will benefit too by having a strong US dollar for trade, though they may be forced to devalue the Yuan if the Yen drops too rapidly.

And, any foreign investor investing in US dollars can buy whatever real assets they want with US treasury sales -- at the going rate. The US must comply or default.

There is one other feature I would add -- and that is the Japanese and Chinese have been adversaries for centuries. Furthermore, China has not forgotten what Japan did to China during WWII when China was essentially unable to defend herself. Apologies after over 40 years will have little effect.

The devaluation of the Yuan hurts China relatively little, since the majority of Chinese internal trade is by barter. The pending devaluation hurts her creditors much more -- namely Japan and Europe.

I'm not sure why the Communist Chinese have not yet devalued. Perhaps they fear the consequences of possible world deflation. They may also be reluctant to the loss of foreign liquidity -- for a time. Won't be much longer however, as the discount is already about 10% on the black market.

My intuitive guess is that the Japanese government will suffer for years to come by their inability to come to terms with their debt problems, and will continue to squander their savings. If the Japanese fail to correct their problems very soon, the Communist Chinese will eventually become the leaders of Asia, and SEAsia, not Japan.

One very small quibble: one suspects the West will be surprised by the degree of accord that exists between China and Japan. ( Top Chinese leaders visit Japan, at the height of Asean crisis to cite one example. ) One 'tracks' corporations that begin as joint-ventures with Japanese giants, quickly assume a Chinese presence and flavor, and then establish corporate outposts all over the world. An example is a company called Chroma.
http://www.chromaate.com/html/world.htm
It is not too much of an exaggeration to suggest that the Chinese must be the most highly developed 'net-workers' in the world!

Japanese intellectuals long ago foresaw the reality of China's ascendancy over Japan, and acquiesced with civilized graciousness ( and cogent rationalization ) . If we compare France with Germany ( or England ) we can perhaps gain insight into the parallel tracks of enmity and national interest on which countries oft times travel.

Nonetheless, thank you for a great piece! We'll watch and see in our ringside seats, yes?

Don't they know about KITCO?

SDRer: I am not sure the age-old enmity will be forgotten, but adversaries can work together, if they both benefit. Japan has technology and money ( whats left of it ) . China has low-cost workers and natural resources. I do hope they will work together.

I must admit I am worried regarding our fellow Kitcoite's post about China: They want the US to open the technology trade floodgates completely, and to ignore the commotion in Tibet. So much for Shangri-La. We must remember that we are trading with a Communist government that may become a world leader in a generation or less. If WJC places no human rights restricions on our trade with China, that clearly indicates to them that 1 ) We are no better ethically than they are, and 2 ) They can do whatever they want regarding human rights violations, without fear of retaliation.

We are now cultivating the kind of Communist Chinese government that we will eventually get leading the world. If we do not place firm rules on our trade, the difficult child that is Communist China will grow up to be a much more unruly adult. Unfortunately our leaders seem to have no insight into what their current foreign policy is creating.

All: I think the punishment should fit the crime. If BC thinks China's treatment of Tibet is ok, does that mean he would approve of the same kind of government in the US too? What would his liberal supporters think of that? Do they all think they will not wind up like the people of Tibet?

Unfortunately the punishment never quite fits the crime, does it?

It is, unfortunately, the logical consequence of what has gone
before ( donations, no donations--it is leverage given in the
nasty world of global politics ) . Perhaps I'm too negative?

You stole my "thunder". It is as close as we can get. Just saves me a little work. BBL, thanx, Charlie

My wife, who is Chinese ( non-Communist, from Taiwan ) and I were talking this morning about the announcement after the close of the Nikkei Friday that the Japanese economy had contracted at an annualized rate of 5.3% over the first two quarters of this year, much higher than the expected 1.2%. She said that could not be right, because she recalled what it was like in 1973-74 when Japan had a .7% contraction, attended by bank closures, unemployment, and social unrest. She said she could not imagine the impact of a 5.3% contraction rate. I wonder what it's like there? What will they do? The Japanese don't handle humilation well.

I wonder if the selling of US Treasuries is a more straight forward decision that we might think. So I mention to my wife that Japan and China together hold about 20% of the US debt. She paused for a moment and then laughed hysterically for a while. "You're kidding!" she said. I told her the stakes were high. If they sell, the dollar and the US economy are in big trouble. Her response: "China and Japan couldn't care less about the US. The instant it is more in their interest to sell the debt than to not sell it, they'll sell it."

I've always figured that instant is when the debt for exports trade stops working for them. But maybe it's when the Japanese people are suffering in a deflationary vortex and demanding justice while Americans are partying in a sea inflated dollars.

-EJ

Japan might be humiliated right now with there economy contracting and the Yen falling but since they hold a large amount of US Bonds and the band market is making all time highs while the Dollar is going up they are making alot of money. Why sell something that is making so much money for them?

Kosovo Crisis
http://mprofaca.cro.net/kosovo.html

SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC'S POWER DEPENDS ON KEEPING KOSOVO Georgie Anne Geyer not a new piece , but Ms. Geyer is a treat instead of a treatment
http://www.uexpress.com/ups/opinion/column/gg/archive/gg980306.html

( and do not discount the European Muslim Declaration )
Because there is an interesting truth about the risk-managment modules
at every major bank in the world that might--just dear god might--be an
echo of PROMIS
bbl

Farfel wrote on:

Date: Tue Jun 09 1998 13:26

farfel ( Oh, Terrible, terrible Angst.... ) ID#340302:

 Special Hellos to Little Gritty Bum Bum, Disskneed, Jeillo, and RotJerk. I miss you all.

Just remember what I posted many months ago...

Okaaaay:

Oh, I remember. I would be happy to repost for you fella.

Told you he wasnt done being a martyr. Another prediction come to pass

Filet of farfel, anyone?

I am well rested and feel like stomping this twit

So I will

Yes.

PS

I will heed no calls of peace. While I am gone and unable to respond, this little coward comes out of his closet with this crap? The bill is due. He will pay.. Cha CHING!

OK

Glenn,
You assert that "Japan is making a lot of money from their holdings of US Treasury notes", but in reality, until they REALIZE that "money" in something tangible - all they really have is a good feeling - just like so many baby boomers & yuppies in the market.

Ponzi schemes always work well ... until someone wants their money ; )

In a related topic, Clinton, having used the Indonesians for all they are worth, now wipes his Johnson on them and moves on to the next harlot, China. So what the Red Chinese leadship wipe out a few thousand freedom-loving, love-making, liberal students in Tienamann ( sp? ) Square.

He can overlook that...

Reminds of the two Chines warlords, whose family's had warred for century's, until there remained but to aged patriarch's left.

Things had come a bitter, bitter stalemate, then it became know that one was writing a novel/histroy of thier rivalry, the months and years rolled by then silence.

One day A COMPLIMENTARY copy was delivered by the author to the subject,
who immediatelly began to voraciously read the book.

Quite suddenly he became deathly ill and died, when his court investigated the circumstances of his demise, they found the book, unfinished, beside his bed.

It was discovered that each page of the book had been posioned, and that as the reader turned each page, he was coating his fingers with the posion, which then was transfered to his mouth, all of which process was described meticulously in the conclusion of the book.

Yes, let's watch the Chinese play with the Japanese.

the $/yen/TBill constructs. The nanosecond it best serves their purposes,
they will... {:- (

the $/yen/TBill constructs. The nanosecond it best serves their purposes,
they will... {:- (
bbml

Well, for better or worse here we are. The next week to ten days will tell a lot about
which direction our markets and economy will be headed for the next six to nine months. In my
opinion every thing that happens between now and the end of the year will be historic in nature
and unpecedented in size and scope. I hope I am wrong and the party goes on forever and they
continue to plow up the potato fields to plant tulips. Lets do a quick recap to see where we
are. My original prediction was Dow 9050 and Late May-June time frame. As we drew closer to that
I modified it somewhat in April to 9300-9500 on the Dow and mid to third week in June time
frame. Here are the stats.
The Dow: Peaked at 9167, closed friday at 8834. Down 3.6%
The Transports: Peaked at 3685, closed friday at 3378. Down 8.3%
The Utilities: Peaked friday at 293.42
The transports turning down first while the utilities turned up is a classic recession signal.
The S&P 500 has turned down while the biggest downturn of all is in the Russell 2000. It is down
9.4%. Small caps turning down before the big caps is another classic recession signal. Let's
check out the other leading barometers of the market.
The CPI: The cpi has bottomed and has turned up.
Ind Production has peaked and has turned down.
Purchasing Managers index has peaked and turned down.
Factory Utilization has peaked and turned down.
Building Permits have peaked and turned down.
Housing starts have peaked and turned down.
The trade deficit has hit a record high.
Last but not least long term bond yields have been falling while short term yields have held
steady or risen. That will lead to the dreaded "inverted yield curve", which means long term
rates are lower than short term rates, another classic recession indicator. Every statistic that
measures anything is screaming slow down in the fall. The stock market will correct to reflect
that. How much depends on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist. I think the downside risk
is huge. I am predicting Dow 6000 or less by december. Be that as it may I think Japan's
depression is going to give us a recession. Last but not least we come to gold. I blew the call
on that last wave. I was looking for a wave up and got caught in a wave down. Short term painful
but long term meaningless. Gold will have it's day and that day is not far off. I look for
weakness next week followed by a short rally in July, another leg down in august and then come
fall it's off to the races. Gold traditionally goes down with stocks early in a correction and
then turns up as people start to bail out and look for stability. The key is the dollar. Gold is
actually up in every currency on the globe but the dollar. When the dollar starts down is when
gold will go up. The Japanese purchased 400 tons of gold last week. If they keep that up it is
all over for the dollar. In any event we are living in interesting times. If I haven't bored you
to tears by now and you have any money left to put in the pot the best thing going now would be
an intermediate length bond fund of 3-5 years marurity. They will go up while the longer
maturity bonds go down.That's it for this week end. I look for next week to be very interesting
indeed.

Thoughts on which gold mining stock, Bema Gold vs. Arizona Star Resources , is a better investment both short and long term. Your comments welcome. Thank you.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Date: Sun Jun 14 1998 13:08

Voyeur Professor wrote:

".So I must with regret add my name to the list of those who have been shocked by the boorish attitudes of those who have trashed farfel."

Voyeur Guy,

Were you shocked by the boorish attitude manifested in its paramount by farfel?

This creep has either kissed ass or insulted every poster on this site

If there are doubts, I would be happy to repost his garbage

Farfel is a blathering hypocrite

I will call him such

I will never quit

Ever

Welcome home, farfel

Yes Indeedy!

PS

An old maxim says something about knowing somebody by the company they keep. He will not post while his bosom pal is "denigrated". But he had no problem accepting the attacks on myself and others from the whining guttersnipe. If this Voyeur fellow has bedfellows like this, good riddance to him too.

See Ya

WOW!
Prometheus, you are a genius in strategic thinking!

I just read your post ( from 14:38 ) . I printed it and I will keep it.

I celebrate your vision.

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Wed Jun 10 1998 22:12

"farfel ( @AUROPHILE...I am violating my new "no post" rule one last time... ) ID#340302: ...because I cannot bear it when Economics undergraduates like yourself post sheer nonsense on this forum."

I would say this is a rather boorish statement, Yes?

So we will now concentrate on the absolute and incredibly dim "sheer nonsense" that farfel posts ( we call him Short Squeeze Farfel, hereabouts, in honor of a falling gold price ) . He is clueless as to what makes these markets tick. I would be happy to prove it. It will cause farfel pain and embarrassment. This is as it should be. It is as it will be.

Go back under your rock F boy, or I will squash you.

This will be no fun for you at all

Count on it

Yes

Yes, I noticed the correlation between your absence and Fartful's cowardly return to the forum to make disparaging name snipes ( He who has claimed so often to NEVER have the audacity to call anyone anything other then the rightful screen name! )

But did you also notice, as I mentioned Friday, that Fartful's most vocifeous POG cheerleading, has a frightfully accurate inverse relationship to POG?? It's almost Puetzkian in it's accuracy. Whenever the Puetz used to call for a market crash, it immediately soared to record new highs. Fartful seems to have the same talent in reverse. Whenever he calls for huge increases in POG...well...nuff said.

In any case...welcome back! Scroll back a few days and check the minor foodfights. I say minor cause they're child's play...... Ahhhh, if only I could be so omnipotent as to believe that I could singlehandedly talk Silver to new and lofty heights through sheer will of blowhard power spindoctoring... Well, I guess in this world we have seekers of the truth..and we have Propagandists who seek to change the truth. We both know which camp Fartful falls into eh??

Nice that you dropped by, could you repost the link to your metals commentary? Also, in between hurling cream filled eclairs, which way the precious next week?

http://www.scdut.com/

Dave, don't worry if Fartful disappears again, though you say you only lurk here to read his pearls of spin doctoring wisdom. New Guru's for sheep to follow, spouting well crafted words they know their baah ing listeners want to hear, will always arise when a "vacuum" of is created by the exit of the "leader".

And of course, you can always go over to the USAGold site and read the deistic writings of ANOTHER in a pinch eh???

On USAGOLD

Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 18:50

farfel ( @LGB...why do you keep saying you love the gold metal... ) ID#340302:

...yet you consistently disparage her role in our world economy?

It's classic Orwellian double-speak, if you ask me.

Why not do us all a great favor? Cease and desist with your chronic negativity about the yellow metal. Why not try something new...like sincere ( non-sarcastic ) questions as to why it is trading at less than 300?

F Child,

Why not do us all a great favor? Cease and desist with your chronic negativity about the people who actually know these markets and keep your own mouth shut? Every time you open it, you are proven dull or wrong. This site sucks because of you. You suck the usefulness right out of it. In fact, you suck.

We are only getting started.

Having fun yet?

I am.

Me thinks DOW will end the week lower than it began...and Gold will languish "ASB".

Sunday June 14, 2:43 pm Eastern Time

WALL ST WEEK AHEAD- Asia quakes, Wall Street aches

By Marjorie Olster

NEW YORK, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Asian economies are quaking and Wall Street is feeling the aftershocks.

Investors will likely remain skittish this week amid fears a recession in Japan will spread to other Asian economies and slash U.S. corporate earnings. Those worries are dimming the short-term outlook for the stock market.

``All eyes will continue to be on Japan and the rest of Asia to see how their currencies are holding up, if they are at all, and if they are taking any action to stem this rout,'' said Guy Truicko, portfolio manager at Unity Management.

The yen slid to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly eight years last week, sending Asian shares reeling. The deterioration prompted stern advice from the U.S. government that Tokyo take bold action to stimulate its economy and address mounting problems in the banking sector.

The market will also nervously await more company profit warnings, particularly from the technology sector which has fallen harder and faster than the rest of the market lately.

``The market will be in a period of consolidation as investors adjust to single-digit earnings growth,'' said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones.

First Call, a firm which tracks earnings estimates, last week ratcheted down its second-quarter profit growth forecasts for Standard & Poor's 500 companies to 4.9 percent versus the year-ago period. One week earlier, the forecast had been for 5.3 percent growth.

However, a number of analysts said expectations for the second half of the year remain overly optimistic and will be reevaluated in the coming weeks.

``Expectations for the second half are looking like more of a pipe dream,'' said Truicko, adding that price-to-earnings ratios would have to fall to reflect this.

The Dow industrials tested the floor of the recent trading range around 8,700 on Friday but recovered to end at 8,834.94, down 263 points for the week.

More bad news, either out of Asia or from second-quarter company pre-announcements, could be the catalyst for a breakdown to 8,400 or 8,500, market watchers said.

``The market will take its cue from Asia. It needs to get direction regarding earnings, not just for this quarter but for second half and that is what is going to drive the market,'' said Arun Kumar, senior U.S. equities strategist at Lehman Brothers.

He said domestic economic data will attract little attention.

The May Consumer Price Index, due out on Tuesday, will not be of much concern with inflation worries fading and Asia expected to put a drag on U.S. growth.

However international trade data for April on Thursday will be of more interest than usual because it will reflect one of the more significant direct effects of Asia on the U.S. economy.

The quarterly ``triple witching'' expiry of futures and options falls on Friday.

Ahhh the smell of Roasted Fartfel in the afternoon.....
That smell, that roasting aromatic smell .....smells like......

Barbecued Yaleboy!

The cyber therapists have told me it's now ok to return to Kitco for just a few minute each day...if I wish. I thank them for their help in saving me from my internet addiction. Since I've been away, I've actually talked to people on the phone, and in the ( you'll pardon the expression ) flesh. I just want to say that I hope LGB has returned to his home with his dear family and that all of the inconvenience of his flood damage has been rectified. I hope that Mozel, and Farfel are continuing as brilliant as ever, and than "Another" has come back from "the other" place he went to when Kitcoites savaged him ( hey, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the refinery, ey gold bugs??? ) . I am cold-posting now. I have NOT scrolled through the last umpty ump hours or days or weeks of Kitco in preparation for my return. Actually, from my occasional lurks, momentary I assure you, nothing much seems to have changed. We just have to sit here and make conversation until the next gold bull, right? Where is remote viewing now that we need it?
But that's ok, I can put up with the repetition. I can put up with the onjectivism, and the libertarianism. I can put up with it all! One day at a time.

Farfel the Wrong wrote:

"SELBY...as per Rhody's info, you owe me an apology concerning your erroneous attacks upon my assertion that Bush served on Barricks's Board of Directors."

We already know, when an apology is offered this fellow, he accepts like a pompous king, offers nothing in return but condescending lectures and worn out platitudes, and then proceeds to bugger you all over again like the duplicitous fornicator he is. I am not accusing this fellow of sodomy; rather it is his own head that is up his ass.

Again, no calls for me to desist. I will follow through until he quits or I am thrown off this site. He called the war quite some time back. I am just showing up for the action. I will rub his nose in his farfel feces like a naughty little puppy, and then lock him in the laundry room with newspapers on the floor for the rest of the night. Here, the best to issue forth from farfel puppy, will fall on truth, knowledge, and facts. But the droppings remain little farfels. It is all he has to offer.

I will smite farfel for the fun of it

And then I will gloat over his charred corpse

Ready. Set Go!.

give the Japanese any more credit than we do wall street yuppies.

We have consistently over-estimated their perception of where their wealth is, cybrrrrrr spaaaaaaaaaace, totaly un-aware of it.

we shall seeee.

In the mean time, when I see them come in and buy all the Alfalfa and timothy hay, until there is none to be had for domestic use, or buy up all the #1 of WA cherry's, or maybe the best breedlines of our dairy stock, or the #1 logs or any and every other item you can think of, by simply offering 25% or more than market value.

I shouldn't worry that Im regulated to buying seconds or simply can't buy
at any price because the Item is gone or going.

Yes dumb Japs wait until they want to collect what's theirs.

JEEese can anybody tell me where to get a decent cherry????????

In my rudeness, I almost forgot to answer a question you posed on Friday Fartful.. but let me ammend my error and answer it now.

YOUR QESTION:

"Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 12:27
farfel ( How Japan Can Turn Things Around.... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Funny but sometimes I get the absurd impression that there really are people out there reading my various analyses ( see my early morning post on STAGFLATION ) . Oh, it's probably just my usual megalomania, right fellas?

MY ANSWER:

Right fartful.

RJ, dont judge him too hard - the guy has nothing to say but he dont care and buy more in all circumstances

So THATS why he had all that KY jelly in his hair !! ( pop.. )

Welcome back my friends
to the show that never ends
we're so glad you could attend
come inside..come inside.....

There behind the glass
there's a real blade of grass
be careful as you pass
move along...move along....

( Name that group Mikee )

Recipe for getting head out of asse, Take thumb out of ear first.

And thank you for the wishes....we're back home and I'm feisty and misbehaving once again..back to my old self as you can see. Now...off to the beach with the kidlings, and back later to continue the "Barbecue"

( Don't you wish you'da done some readin first???? )

PS ..Whither SSC? Plucked some shares at 1.00, now they have stagnated at 15/16 but I expect great things from em......in the not too distant future

I see therein another agenda of Japan.
The Japanese failed militarily in WWII but they have patience.
I doubt European nationalism will permit the Euro to survive.
The US dollar as we all suspect - is headed for the toilet.
Given that Japan cleans up in buying mucho Gold at fire sale prices as you put it.
They end up holding the winning hand {a Gold backed currency} when the rest of the players have folded.
The Yen becomes the world standard currency.

No offense, everyone involved -- but we do not need to waste energy and Kitco bandwidth in another sparring match. There is too much at stake right now for us to be distracted or disrupted.

For example, there are bullish stirrings in the gold markets, with Oriental gold purchases, and Swiss gold purchases, even if the latter was apparently short covering. Also Duesenberg ( sp? ) , the EMU bank chairman designee, told us how much gold is to back the EURO -- as another Kitcoite pointed out. Now -- just when do you remember any Central Banker mention gold reserves in respect to their currency -- other than the EURO countries, or Switzerland? When is the last time a US FED Chairman announced what percentage of the US dollar is backed by gold?

On the down side, it does look like the EURO CB's may be allowed to sell gold until Jan 1999. I don't have a clear handle on whether this is true, or what this means. Regardless, I think we have to assume that gold rallies -- when they come -- are going to be short-lived for some time to come.

RJ -- Why don't you give us your thoughts about whether Japan is buying gold, whether Brazil/Mexico/Aregentina troubles will be bearish for gold, or whether there are other currency devaluations pending that might push gold down some more? Someday -- I think fairly soon -- there will be no more gold sellers -- because all the countries that want to sell gold will have sold it. When the US is the only country left that has not devalued significantly, there will be no way for gold in US dollars to drop any further.

As far as I can tell, the price of gold is rising in most currencies. The number of countries where the price of gold is rising or steady is getting rather small, indeed.

John Disney: How about South Africa? Are South African gold firms seeing rising profits due to a favorable exchange rate for gold?

sharefin/Bill Buckler: How about profit margins for Australian gold stocks?

Farfel, I still think you are wide of the mark concerning Klinton's apparel. Maybe we should just label him according to his behavior vis-a-vis The US Constitution and the rights of free Americans. Klinton is a communist, pure and simple. His language is communist double-speak. Komrad Klinton.

Do you think that Yale may have a "Special Ed." program?

Glad to hear you continue to be long-term bullish on silver as about 1/3 or more of my nat. res. stocks are there. My biggest mistake on AG was buying something deceptively called the Lexington Strategic Silver Fund. Turns out their holdings are a lot more yellow than white which has affected the value significantly.

As my goals are long-term, I appreciate your views on silver. Farfel, IMO, is long-term bullish on gold which is why I appreciate his views. The short term traders like RJ have exceptional knowledge and skills but I don't have the time or desire to be a trader. I just want to be on the correct side of PM's when the proverbial fan is impacted by the waste.

In the words of one who pleaded for peace as the smoke rose above a burning L.A., "Can't we all just get along?"

Hey man...it's a quiet day....don't get too serious or you'll spoil the Sunday barbecue! Also, IMHO, Gold is going nowhere for a few months, with the exception of an ocassional foray to the $300 level.

The EU announcements and meetings have all been anticipated already. Jewelry demand in Asia is way off. It's inevitable that further CB sale announcements will be made ( even if small and on a lesser scale than past 2 years )

Besides, according to Farfel, Gold is a female, Clinton has it in for Gold and you KNOW what happens to females Clinton has it in for!

Argent: I'm afraid I must agree with you. BC is whatever he is paid to do. If most of his income comes from Communist China, then he will be pro Communist Chinese. It saddens me to realize how little the general public understands about this. BC does not understand right or wrong -- just how much -- because that is what allows him to get the votes -- as far as he is concerned.

This is why Tienamin Square, Tibet, and other Human rights abuses are ok. How would we deal with the Serbs and Kosovo if they were contributing to the Democratic party?

JTF, as I was pointed out before, Duisenberg is a former BIS president and chairman of the board, knows real price of Gold, so I hope, finally, it will be OK at ECB side.

Oops - I mean LGB. You are in good spirits today! I only wanted to make sure the barbecue was part of the picnic, and not some of the Kitco posters.

See you all later.

Delphi: Thanks for reminding us all. It sure is hard investing in gold these days, when you never know what country is going to devalue next. If gold keeps steady for the next month or so, I think that is a pretty good indicator that further currency devaluations will have little bearish effect.

Oftentimes the best way to determine how good a market is, is to see how it responds to a solid push the opposite direction. It is time to go long when the shorts are unable to do their dirty work anymore.

JTF -

Once again I ask the question:

Where were the condemnations when this little ferret came back to insult us all?

You know I like you, but I am fed up with this one sided scolding. Pardon me for vastly overmatching farfel, it is not my fault that Yale neglected to teach our farfel ferret the English Language as well as Economics, History, and Mathematics.

I was out of town. This creep posted the crap I reposted earlier. He is a coward, and he is stupid. He has proven his cowardice. I will prove his stupidity.

Dont ever tell me to stop this again, unless you wield the same rules at farfel puppy. Remember to scold first those who offend first.

Each time you do this to me, I wonder about your fairness

No

I will not stop

Once again, he came at me

He will suffer the consequences

Perhaps you all could save bandwidth by telling this creep he is an assshole when he acts like one. I certainly will. Silence throughout his diatribes while scolding me for my response is disingenuous, unfair, and just pisses me off further.

OK

As promised ( threatened? ) this is my final repeat my final post. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like much more bile is to be spewed from this unhappy and moribund little band before they are exhausted.

When I first posted Friday, I indicated that I would speak on two subjects and exit. This is the second, concerning Farfel. It will end my brief writing.

I started lurking in January. It soon became apparent that the forum was different from others that I had visited. There was a pervasive level of higher intelligence. There was wit and tasteful humor. There was a discussion of one another's positions, but carefully worded to suggest that one was not looking for ulterior motives, but rather for ideas. But most of all, for me, there was the magnificent Farfel. The respect for ideas and the way phrases were turned to incorporate those ideas were special for a forum. Indeed, on some busy days, I scanned only for Farfel.

Then things started to change, or perhaps I just started noticing the personal attacks questioning motives and not just positions. I realize that your unwritten code is for one to defend oneself, but the onslaught against Farfel goes too far. You attackers must realize that, although your intelligence levels seem equally high, differences of opinion can occur. And you as a group must make it known when one goes too far attacking those positions. A recent case was especially wordy, snooty, and guttural: when Farfel mentioned short positions in equities.

When Farfel's anguish spilled to the forum last week, I then obtained a password so I could write. Maybe some of you had noticed the more civil tone of the forum immediately following Ferfel's silence, as if there was to be an embarrased period of polite talk, as at a wake. This did not last and some are back to their snarling ways.

The forum needs this type of eloquence. You will revert to the drivel of many other forums if you drive those such as Farfel away.

RJ,

I don't recall anyone electing, or even nominating, you as protector of this site. You do seem to spend ample amounts of time telling us just how incorrect, or idiotic, others are. Don't you get tired of hearing your own voice. I certainly do.

Instead of knocking the comments made by other posters, why don't you quite simply identify what is incorrect with their facts/opinions and skip the diatribe.

Thanks.

Well Dave, you are mighty mello this afternoon! Ahhh, and that's as it should be on a Sunday. My long term views on Silver?

As you know, I'm a believer. Firstly, I see that the drawdown in COMEX inventory has begun once again, setting new low inventory records. This would seem to indicate, that the "Squeeze" pro's are moving in again...which considering how low the stocks have bcome, would seem almost inevtiable at this point.

Then we have the latest release by the Silver institute indicating yet another massive shortfall of production vs. consumption this year to the tune of 100 to 200 million ounces.

Then we have two or three quarters of unusually low purchases from India, due in part to economic woes...however...this increases pent up demand once things begin to "normalize" again.

Then we have the spike to $7.00 & beyond a few months ago which brought a lot of the "melt" silver out of the woodwork..a good deal of which seems to have now been processed and sent to London.

Then we have the potential for more large purcahes by the major funds and "big boys" now that the changing fundamentals have been noticed, ( just look at the chart of the past 8 years for the trend in inventory, and supply/demand )

Hmmm, then there is the potential for a huge explosion in photographic use as China and other third world huge population centers climb aboard the "cheap" photography train ( that is when their economies improve ) ....

Course there's always the possibility that Gold may indeed see a big run up ( due to some world circumstance that aren't apparent at the moment ) ...in which case Silver always goes along for the ride...

then we have the T/A experts like APH who VEry accurately predicted Silver's upside waves, the follow up downside waves, and now are telling us we have upside waves ahead once again.....

As to investor psychology, many are becoming more wary of Equities and looking to protect some of the spectacular profits they made in the past 2 decades, some small percentage of this money will find it's way into Silver and Gold....

Then we have the prospects of inflation or stagflation ahead, some signs of which are rearing their ugly little heads, and either of which would fuel silver...

Then we have the historically bargain price that the Silver sits at today ( when relative comparison is made to other commodities ) ...just adjusting for inflation, silver today should be around $20 / Oz. to be even with it's fairly long term $ 10 / Oz. level that it had semi "stabilized" at after the Hunt Brother squeeze debacle.

The only real downside risk to Silver, would be a worldwide deflationary collapse in commodities, something I believe the FED would quickly inflate us out of before it began..... and the only real limit to Silver's upside potential, is the huge supply of "old" unrefined silver, which will come out of thw woodwork in slowly attenuated waves as it's price goes up to ever higher plataues.

Also, industrial users are not hedged all that far out, and not all that well, and someday they may be competing for a ( relatively ) small pool of the silvery metal to meet their consumption demands. This will especially be true if Eastern economic woes improve in the next few quarters.

IMHO, we'll see $6.50 Silver by year end, $8.00 Silver by late 99, $10.00 silver by Y2K.

I'm no analyst, I just read em all, and this is my simple common sense based view of this market. Little downside risk, lot's o' safety, lots o' upside potential. Like you, I'm not into the risk of derivitaves and short term plays ( Though I may find my way into that a bit shortly )

In a nutshell, I like Gold..but for gain potential, I like silver better because of the fundamentals, the industrial use, the supply/demand shortfall, the rapidly diminshing COMEX inventory, the new interest by "Big" players like Warren Buffet, and the fact that there are no huge "overhangs" of CB selling to fear, as has plagued the Gold market. One could put forth a lot of the same argumanets for Platinum, with the added issue of supply and mining disruptions a la our pals the Russkies....

Well said, agree completely. You have probably read Barrons Commodity column, June 15 issue. What a case for the contrarian to at least start buying AU!

http://www.atnet.net/clients/cbridges/poetry/thefool.htm

There is a highly irrational mindset that takes place in the country today. Folks have left their deductive reasoning abilities aside, and now cling to "emotion" as their salvatioon...a very leaky lifeboat that.

They love Farfel's cheerleading because they want someone to tell them what they want to hear, rather than truly reasoned, rational, balanced, and honest analysis.

Therefore, like the jury who let's off the murderer out of "sympathy" for him, this Fartful fellow will be exonerated from all manner of pompous, disingenuous, boorish, snide, hypocrritical, condescending, weasly, and cowardly behaviour. Not a PEEP will be spoken to him on this behavior...yet YOU, when you should rightly suggest the emporer has no clothes, will endure multiple calls for execution.

Tis the nature of things today...... they want leaders to tickle their ears with that which they crave to hear, and never mind of it flaunts reality.....they need the guru. Remember ANOTHER. Revered by them all, no matter how wrong, how inane, how silly, how absurd.

At least with ANOTHER, there were no condescending insults. the amazing thing about this Fartful fellows followers, is that they seem to have missed all the posts of his which absolutely REQUIRE a retaliatory response, such as that which you are so rightfully delivering him.

FARTFUL, provoked today's events, and FARTFUL is reaping his just reward. Those who think otherwise, either havn't been reading the forum for the past few months, or are so blinded by their sheeplike desperation for a POG cheerleader, that they will attack any and all messengers of truth, justice, and the American way!

Can't place the "blade of grass" group, but SSC do look nice to me right now. The Jupiter conjunction with its Sun in mid May was a fizzle, but the technicals on the SSC price chart are a screaming buy. Hold fast!

The price gold or anything else could be the least of our worries in the near future. Peace is that condition that has more value even than jingle.
There is an atmosphere of hated and jealousy mostly along racial lines that could overwhelm the USA. The demon is out, empowered, and seething for victims. Whatever your stripe, it's the same demon, if you buy into the disparagement, antipathy, downgrading others along racial lines your playing the game. We are all racists, except for Mother Teresa, and the scattered philosophers here and there. Not me, I accept the burden.
Scratch some of these "good people", then stand back-way back.
We have about 5%-10% of the population hankering to go bullistic and draw the rest of us into the fray, and they can.
I think thats a problem more thorny the the y2k. What can we do to head it off? Nothing, it's a disease that will run it's course.
We used to practice genocide to solve these problems. Think we are above it now?
On a lighter note, the nippon-jin will take definite and effective steps to stay out of the Chinese shadow. They are tightly organized and disiplined beyond our knowledge of the word. IMO they will opt for the gold play. Any deals they make with China will last as long as the flowers in May, and correctly since the Chinese are the most blatant liers in history.

Voyeur Professor-- I've enjoyed your comments, always read your posts from way back. Just keep reading Kitco, I'm sure you will have more to say.

I see things are heating up again, no one is censoring this forum and thaats one reason it's worthwhile. I've enjoyed and learned from all of the combatants, and while I might be missing something ( I actually did fall from a spruce stump, about 20 feet straight down on my head with a chainsaw and all ) I don't know yet what it's all about.

However, in Fartfuls defense, I must take you to task on one comment you made about him. You suggested that he knows "nothing" re these markets, and what drives them. You MUST be mistaken about this....

After all, if you'll just scroll back a couple days, you'll see where Fartful claims he's made vast fortunes buying PUTS on "general equities" during the stock markets virtually vertical rise!!!

This must make Fartful the ONLY "big time" investor to achieve such spectacularly genious level timing, as to make such huge sums going short during the best bull market in history. Probably you need a Yale graduate degree to do this I would think...Maybe since George Bush went to Yale and is part of the big Tri-Lateral "conspiracy", he told Fartful how to...wait a sec., maybe it WASN'T the Republican, hmmm, coulda been HILLARY who told Fartful how to do this. After all, didn't she make $100K on a 1K cattle investment in 1 day?

Ahhh, but I digress...just wanted to point out Fartful's spectacular achivement. It rivals only Puetz's, since he also claimed to be making "big moeny" for all his clients with those S&P PUTS, as the S&P was making new highs on a daily basis.

Hmmmmm...now that I think about it, didn't Fartful show up just about the time that Puetzke disappeared? Cuuld it be that.....Nahhhhhhhh....you're right, couldn't be. Puetze was a terrible analyst, but he was never a pompous, arrogant, condescending, hypocritical, assanine, Boorish, butthead.....

The point of holding foreign currency reserves is that you can sell them if necessary to defend the home currency, too much reliance on the USD doesn't make sense. Look at the situation in which Japan now finds itself. Japan holds enormous USD reserves and is attempting to shore up a falling Yen. But because of the situation in the USA, Japan cannot sell too many dollars without weakening the dollar and driving up US domestic interest rates. Totally counterproductive. So the reality is that Japanese USD reserves do not function effectively to back the Yen. It would work only in a small nation whose total dollar reserves are not so significant.

"Max Mosley, Scepticle Investor"

You never heard of ELP????? Emerson Lake & Palmer? Lucky man?

Like your take on SSC, goona git me some mo' o that stuff...always liked yer "Non expiring option" comment.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/06/14/international_news/japanquake_1.html

Not that they et Al...they et their usual plates of native cuisine ( what IS the native cuisine of Serbia? ) I simply find it very interesting, the comments about China and Serbia - the remaining countries we love to hate. I look back at myself, and I can remember my first mortar attack in Phu Loi Vietnam ( I've never been so scared in my LIFE ) and how the next morning we picked up pieces of shrapnel with Chinese markings on them. OOOOH how I hated those M*thers! Then I remember how the war in Bosnia totally disgusted me. How I thought that these were the people that civilization forgot! But I also remember how China made the first really important break into "Capitalism" for a major Communist nation. And left the Soviets behind. And how my son is now married to a Chinese woman, and lives and works in Shanghai. He is practically Chinese! And I love that girl!!! And how now I have a business interest with a company on the brink of doing a possibly groundbreaking deal in Republika Srpska, the former Serbian enclave in Bosnia where these people need to come into the 20th century, where they don't have a pot to p*ss in. ( NOT the BAD Serbia in Yugoslavia that is making so much trouble in Kosovo ) . So what is the lesson? The lesson is about Oxen, and Al Gore, and stuff like that. Whose oxen is being Al Gored. I tell you this in all candor my friends at Kitco, my dear, beloved, pesky, abrasive friends...I would sooner embrace a former Viet Cong and buy him a drink than give such a greeting to my own President these days. So what does that mean? Who is to blame? China or Bill?
What IS this world coming to. How loooooong do we HATE someone, or some nation, or a whole people? Long enough to rot our guts? Long enough to insure that we continue to kill each other? Is 9 years afterTianamen Square loooong enuf? I don't know. I'm just asking.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ssc&d=b

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980614/japan_econ_1.html

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=2y

If we get a good silver rally going, SSC should exceed its previous high since its bottom. I see next significant resistance at $2.25. Over 100% before the end of this year would be OK with me! Buy those "options!"

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=5y

confusion as to the purpose of Au, is it not simply a currency like any other, except it's availabilty can't be increased by the whims of heads of state, and therein lies it's value.

I agree that the strong sense of nationalism might tear the EURO apart, I am surprised it made it this far.

But it seems to me, Japan can have all the Au it wants, and little difference it shall make.

Because in the end, as has happened before and will again, barter shall determine the value of Au, not vice versa.

Real wealth is goods not gold, as the 49er's and others found out when trading # for # gold for shovels/flour and other things.

The flow of the production of items of real wealth to China is the river by which we drift towards hell.

Now China is satisfied with raw materials and technology and such, but when she has had her fill of these, and no competition for the production of such mundane things as shovels/lighters/power plants
electronics/jet war planes/air to air missles/knives and forks, and none other manufactures these items except China, will those who hold gold
trade it for anymore than the 49er's did when neeeding an axe, shovel. nail or other such thing.

What need of Au does China have, when her internal economy is essentially reduced to barter presently, except to buy what she craves,
the tech. to reverse engineer so she might turn around and re-produce it?

What need shall she have of it the future?

Let me see, $7.00 @lb. for grapes, in Japan,god only knows what steak is?

Yeah I see the Japanesee as real competitor for producing real wealth against the Chinesee.

They'll have plenty what the other doesn't need or want, except for being consumers, being in need of cheap manufactured hardware/software.

Of course, Japan can always buy up China's production and re-distribute it the rest of us at a tidy profit. NOT.

Hi David! Thanks for the SSC chart! How the hell are you?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980614/australia__2.html

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=my

PMF -

Who the hell are you?

If you dont know what you are talking about, shut up.

You dont.

So shut up.

goldfevr's SSC chart going back to 1980 shows that if this stock can get past overhanging downtrend resistance line of the past 18 years at 2.25 or so, it will go to $5. Just connect tops and bottoms folks. It's that easy! Make that 400% Liberty, my man!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980614/malaysia_p_1.html

Good to see you back at Kitco where you belong!

KITCO ON MY SHOW?......if this mindless name calling does not end and some of civility appears,I will,sorry Bart,yank this link, what I promote to my listners,is a reflection of me......this used to be sight of differing and spirted debate on gold,dow,and politics.....very contentious issues but civility was the rule,get a grip guys

I guess that I along with everyone else on this site will now bow before the incredible powerful presence that you have brought before us.

Thank you for blessing us with insight, wit and a delightful intellect that reminds me of my days back on the school grounds.

Please continue. It is a deligh.

I took the bait and I should have known better.

On to gold and yet another week of currency problems.

http://www2.thestar.com:80/thestar/editorial/money/index.html

All: What do the deep thinkers of this forum forsee for the future of crude oil? Your collective opinions would be greatly appreciated.

a TREASURE...so glad to hear that you are well...to have one such as you call me FRIEND...

Rejoicing on the Island that is Long...

That ain't THUNDER...I am dancing...

yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Many thx for some very insightful thoughts. Especially for "The final step is for the BOJ to support the yen. Perhaps the announcement of increased gold backing, a revaluation, whatever. It will probably be in a form that is symbolicly important to their own people, and a bit mystifying to us. The message will go out to their banks, buy yen."

I believe that is precisely the BOJ's strategy: To covertly accumulate a vast amount of gold reserves first. And subsequently instruct all banks to massively purchase the yen in concert - while at the same time announcing publicly that the BOJ has for sometime been buying gold through its Swiss connections - thus confirming rumors of early June.

The impact would be decisive, annihilating all the SHORT yen speculators - resulting in a return of investor confidence - causing the Nikkei to surge.

In essence the BOJ will be swapping US Treasury fiat paper for real solid gold 'currency,' - universally accepted as possessing intrinsic value.

Oops, not too many adults on line this evening.

Oh, well, guess I'll leave and let the children play ...

It's their Kitco too, you know ... or so they say.

OK! Back to the RJ-Liberty Show ... seems they need the attention.

Maybe I can read some gruppy stuff tomorrow...

Right.

First you write:

PMF ( RJ @ Get off that horse before it kicks you off ) ID#224363:

"RJ, I don't recall anyone electing, or even nominating, you as protector of this site. You do seem to spend ample amounts of time telling us just how incorrect, or idiotic, others are. Don't you get tired of hearing your own voice. I certainly do."

Then:

Date: Sun Jun 14 1998 19:09

PMF ( RJ - Excuse Me ?? ) ID#224363:

"I guess that I along with everyone else on this site will now bow before the incredible powerful presence that you have brought before us."

Now Me,

Ive never heard of you or seen you post on this site. I never addressed you about anything, yet you write the above. You chose to make the first move toward me but it seems your first action was tell me how tired you are of hearing my voice. This is an unkind beginning, yes? Was there some particular reason that you needed to set me straight on this whole farfel thingie? You are now surprised that the words you wrote bring hostility from me?

As I asked, "Are you kidding?"

Yes????

A month or two ago my wife and I were taking a cab from our little Long Island hamlet to the airport at dawn. The cab driver is on his last pickup of the shift. He is very courteous. We make chit chat. I make some very innocuous comment about HIS comment about the economy. He starts to talk. I say to myself, Jeez, now I gotta lissen to some half baked mutual fund buyer tell ME ( The Astrological Investor! ) about the eeekonomy! Well, it turns out this guy starts talking about the Federal Reserve, and then how it was created in 1913, and then how the money is corrupted, and...well, you guys are Kitcoites...you know the rest! Turns out this guy is a card carrying OBJECTIVIST. All 3 of us hail Ayn Rand and face the East. He sounds like "The best of Kitco on CD". I say, "Are you sure you ain't Another?" "Another what?" he says. Maybe Mozel? I KNOW he ain't Tolerant, cause I seen Tolerant. Had dinner with him. ( oooh is he UGLY ) . The cabbie hands me some essays he wrote...I read them on the plane. They are brilliant. It absolutely made my day. And I needed it that day, believe me. I have his address. I will study with this guy.
The moral of the story? The moral is morale! Why is he driving a cab? That's a good question. Maybe he went long gold in '96. How should I know? Why am I here telling YOU all this? Damned if I know that either. Since my cyber addiction therapy, I find I don't know anywhere near what I knew a month ago. I know that. Do you know what I mean?

I know exactly what you mean, heres hoping others hear learn soon.

As I predicted months ago ( as you can see, I am not only back, but humble as ever ) "Crude will languish for most of 1998." Actually, if there is any kind of lame uptrend in the next few months, sell it in the Fall. By January 99 we'll see the secondary low. I have been around long enuf to merely laugh at Opec buffoons when they talk about meeting to curtail production. Fundamentalists and pragmatists out there will forgive me if I also point out that Saturn is opposing NYSE Neptune all this year and this will keep oil in the pits until '99. Now listen hard - in the Fall I want you all to watch the smaller independent oil companies, and start nibbling them. This may be the last big opportunity to scarf up some cheap oil shares before the oils run up again bigtime at the turn of the century... and beyond. Which ain't very far off. IMVHO

...from your forum. It remains a great source of info ( and entertainment!! ) . Please do NOT ever consider banning RJ, LBG, and their ilk from this forum.

RJ...I guess that cruise of yours was NOT quite so relaxing after all. Cheer up. These dark clouds above you...they too shall pass.

LBJ...incidentally, you can always make money buying Puts in a Bull market by targeting selective under-performing stocks ( Dogs of Dow ) . I do NOT trade S & P options.

Sheller...good to hear you're back. That last anecdote was particularly interesting and enlightening.

Vronsky...please keep us apprised of any further news regarding Bank of Japan purchases of gold.

Just posting in to check on things and off to dinner.

Thanks.

F*

From the Hong Kong Monetary Authority-
Issuance of the Hong Kong International Airport Commemorative Gold Coin
Why is it interesting? First newly minted coin with something more generous than 50 stamped on it! {:- ) )
"Baby steps in the right direction." Take a look
http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/new/press/notescoins/980604e.htm

Issuance of the Hong Kong International Airport Commemorative Gold Coin
The Gold Coin is legal tender with a HK$1,000 ( 129USD on 6/14/98 ) face value. It is produced by the Royal Mint of the United Kingdom in 22-carat gold. Each Gold Coin is issued with an individually numbered
The Gold Coin will be sold in Hong Kong for HK$3,288
3288 Hong Kong ( $ ) is equivalent to 424.152000 US ( $ ) 6/14/98

Mike Sheller--Welcome home! We considered it a SpecialSundayTreat!
re: your articulate cabbie--perhaps he is on strike? {:- )
Again, very good to have you back.

Just received this e-mail, it is from nobody I know. Says he is crazytimes. Is he a farfel clone?

"Your pathology is coming out on the internet. Work your problems out in

life, not on Kitco. How much do you drink? Your posts give me a strong

impression you are a raging alcoholic or addict. Be careful, at the rate

you're going, getting thrown out of Kitco would seem to be the least of

your worries. If you find this e-mail arrogant, you have just a SMALL taste

of how people are reacting to you. Crazytimes"

E-mail address available on request.

RJ: I was not aiming at you, or anyone in particular. I was just trying to avoid a repeat of what happened several weeks ago. No offense -- but when you and Farfel go at it, it is hard to keep up a normal conversation with other members of our August group. Its deafening.

What I value are your thoughts about other items than what you think about Farfel. I agree with you that nonstop buy gold statements are tiresome, but he has a right to his opinion.

How about some thoughts about the markets?

Goldbug meltdown, yes?

I always thought Y2K was a non problem. What I have been hearing from credible sources is there is serious risk. Can they be trying to hold up US stocks until 1999 so that y2K will be blamed and not policy or the Big Corporations and Wall St when everything goes. Just a thought. Call your Congressman now for sanctions against China. It worked before the USSR had no MFN.

Relax me friend, things are always darkest before the dawn. Come down, we'll take a couple days on my houseboat. We can cruise right up to the Horse Shoe casino, on second thought lets go fishing.

We have been plastering KItco with Y2K warnings for a good year or so.
Kitco'ites have been well informed of this real problem.
The world will probably not end ( unless some imbedded chips in the ICBM's are overlooked ) , but disruptions bankruptcies and lawsuits will probably be the order of the day...........

All: I am not focusing on anyone -- whenever we have a series of posts that focus on personal attacks, we violate one of the rules of this site. We don't want to force Bart into setting a new set of rules, do we?

Please remember -- the strength of this site is its intellectual depth, and its information gathering resources. I think we should remember why Bart set this site up for us to use -- we are virtual guests of Bart Kitner.

It drives people crazy, ask me , I'm a goldbug.

Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...8:09PM...14899.90...-122.43...-0.81%

-EJ

The Tokyo Stock Exchanges opens with the stocks plummeting 122 points with the Nikkei well below the all crucial level at 14899.

Starting the week: 14899.90 -122.43 -0.81%

There are some that know me here. I do not need to defend myself. Some time ago, I made a post about RJ taking his fights "outside", and that this site is not his. I posted my email to him then and we exchanged an email. I did in fact e-mail him today. My purpose was clear but I wished to keep it "outside". He did not keep it outside. This will be the LAST post on the subject of RJ. Forgive me, but you now understand that I needed to respond on the forum. RJ may now proceed to bring up my posts from the past. I never claim to be anything other than a newfound small investor Goldbug that enjoys this site, until today.....

Big Otis -

If you scanned for farfel, you have witnessed the many unwarranted attacks by him on several members of this forum. So either you do not know the whole story, or you too are dishonest and only decry the response to the attack and not the initial act of aggression. I must conclude the latter, since you did not leap to the defense when this little crybaby was whining daily and attacking myself and others. Is it OK for him? I may not respond? Your colors show well the man you are.

I mean it. I am tired of this crap. I fight for nobody else but myself. When farfel snipes, all is quiet. When I respond, all are up in arms. I do not attack his positions, I attack his obvious lack of knowledge and his bumbling ineptitude that he so grandly passes off as Yale Perfect. He is a joke. If you are fooled by his crap, perhaps you should keep your money in the bank, these markets are not for you. But to defend him is to demonstrate that you too know little of these markets and are probably not worth talking to in any case. So we wont, yes?

Either play it fair both ways or shut up.

Seems that if a fellow agrees with your view on gold, he is OK, even if he is a jerk, coward, blowhard, crybaby, and pompous ass.

If a fellow disagrees with you views on gold, he is an unwarranted aggressor. Even if his knowledge, experience, and track record are demonstrably superior to your spouter of the party line.

For the rest of you who want to tell me to tone it down, save this message, for it is directed at you too. I will simply repost this each time another poster stands up for farfel but ignores his many gross errors in judgment, facts, manners, and the barest in civil behavior. And particularly for claiming that it is his views on the market that causes this rather than his continued attacks. Farfel has made it his hobby to attack me. I will elevate it to an art and he will rend his hair and shake to the marrow.

You dont like it, go somewhere else, or ask Bart to throw me off - Like farfel just did below. I have been posting here for a year and have offered much of value. I have had my run ins with folks. They will attest I am very easy to get along with, until personally attacked. I will then shred the attacker and point out, for all to see, the warm puddle on the ground at their feet when they find that continued attacks bear a price, and the tag is a sobering read when they realize for what they must atone and how many beers are backing up on the bladder.

Perhaps the same thing written over and over and over and over and over again passes for wisdom to some folks, but it is a broken record playing the tired refrain from a tune that hasnt been a hit for two decades. The Beetles were cool, but they dont get much airplay these days do they?

Once again:

This guy attacked me time and again, even when I did not post, so silence does not work, he keeps coming. Would anyone stand by and take this? If so, you go to hell too, Ive got no use for you. When he got bested, he stole away to nurse the stigmata on his martyrs hands. I go out of the country for a week and this clown chooses the first opportunity to make a slam at me - after crying and ringing his hands about how sorry he is that he advised people to loose money. I advise nobody here, I just report what I am doing. Yale Boy apparently has second thoughts about his credentials and would now like to save the world again with his pedestrian yammering.

Had he chosen to do this without attacking, nary a peep would have been heard from me. But he makes his first post an insult to several VALUABLE posters on this forum. Myself, John Disney, LGB, included.

If farfels words are such a revelation to you, I can give you URLs for a dozen sites filled with farfel clones. None of what he says is in the least way unique, informative, or even makes much sense. It is just what farfel feels. If this is important to you, get his home phone number and call him up to coo in his ear, and speak breathless coaxings of golden avarice in muted moaning tones.

If, however, you are interested in how these markets work, you may want to listen to a professional or two. When these pros try to speak, they are drowned out but Farfels Fat Frowning Foibles driven by an ego that wants to hear itself speak, but has nothing to say - and he says this nothing over and over and over and over..

So you are now his champion and have mounted your steed. I dont know you, I have no investment in you, so I will just ignore you. I am actually just addressing this to you as a kind of proxy so I can get in a few jabs at farfel at your expense. I am therefore using you in the most whorish of ways and I dont even know you. Pardon me for being so familiar, but I feel as if we are old acquaintances by now and you seem so enamored of farfel I felt as if you two were intimate enough to share this post together.

Good luck with your new sovereign. You will find with time he has no clothes. You will then feel too foolish to ever post on this site again - at least under the same name. Read LGBs post below, or ask hereabouts regarding his infamous "short squeeze" with the market fell through the floor. There are a dozen posters on this site who can give you valuable info. Farfel can only give you farfels opinion on his feelings. How this has any value is beyond me. You keep reading and assimilating. Meanwhile, I will grind him into sand. He will slip through your fingers in any case.

OK

GOLD
13/06/1998
07:15
286.05
0.00
0.00
Well it is better than Bart's Gold @ 285.60

Kitco has no Gold information 1/2 of the time, we may as well talk about Guns, Sex, Yr2K, Cars, Clinton, .....and just bad mouth one another all of the time. Lets all start BSin and swearin at one another - thats really cool and productive real class.

Let's start tearing Another apart for a while. Maybe he will come back - I doubt it.

Hey Bart! Where in the Hell are you? Turn the damm Gold meter on!

HighRise

HoneyTongue@webtv.net wrote:

In trying to gauge the maginutude of y2k I am struck with the following
statement by Gary North;
"I maintain that the y2k problem is systematic.It cannot be fixed.The
interconnections are far too many.A non-compliant computer will spread
bad data and re-corrupt a compliant computer.They cannot all be
fixed.There is no agreed upon standard for even the placement of the
century date.Either the non-compliant computers will corrupt the
compliant ones,or else the compliant computers must cease all contact
with the non-compliant ones,thereby shutting down entire systems,most
notably the banking system.If we can't fix almost all non-compliant
computers ( and we can't ) ,it does no permenant good to fix any of
them.This is the 'dirty little secert' of the programming guild."

This is a most alarming asseration and I have no way of knowing its
accuracy,hence I am inquiring to you programmers,computer people and y2k
experts ( is there really such a thing?..lol ) if this is true?YES or No?
Thanks,
Debra Wright

Well, I am not a genius, but I pretend to be one at work. For the last
24 years I have been programming, much of it in Cobol, on a wide
variety of business systems.

The above is an over-simplification, but is essentially true. People
who baby sit the systems that feed data to other systems ( and/or
retrieve it and feed it back to their own ) spend lots of times finding
and fixing bad data. Lots of systems will abort if just a single blank
is added to an existing file ( making the record longer than expected. )

If ALL the systems are actually ready for testing by the end of the
year, then an entire year of heavy testing could uncover most of the
problems, and at least identify which systems work well enough to go
live in 2000. I doubt many will be ready for testing in time, and I
doubt that enough money is being allocated. Perhaps the top 10 banks
can make a go of it, and the rest can just go away.

The real problem is the 'death of 1000 cuts' or the bee sting problem.
One sting or paper cut is annoying. 1000 is fatal. I have often spent
a day, or even several days, tracking down and fixing one small data
problem, or file format problem, etc. If you are faced with a few
dozen such problems, it might take weeks to get things going. Many
companies can't stay in business of their order entry system, or
accounts receivable, or accounts payable, or their shipping system is
down 3 weeks. If all these systems are down, it might takes months for
the available programming staff to fix it. NO company can afford this.

I am actually pretty smart, and pretty clever in using computers. I
have been trying to find fault with all the stuff on the Gary North
web site ( and I have read most of it. ) I can find very little
technically wrong with it. I would really, really like to believe
there is a magic bullet out there to solve the problem. There isn't
and there can't be ( short of super aliens or a direct act of God. )

What am I doing about it? I am going to work each day and working on
what they will pay me to do. I am then spending it on food storage.
Last week I bought a shotgun. Three weeks ago I bought two .22 rifles
for a brother and brother-in-law. I am spending $1,000 a month on food
storage. I am driving a car with 150,000 miles and have a house with
no furniture. I would like a new car, and furniture, but I can't stand
the thought of watching little kids go hungry because I wanted new
toys.

I am telling anyone who cares to listen that there are probably going
to be some serious problems in the year 2000. I don't tell them how
bad I think it might be, because I don't want to scare them away.
I was discussing it with a programmer at work, who couldn't refute my
decision on technical points. He asked me how I can sleep at night.
The anwer - not very well at all. I feel like an astronomer who sees
an asteroid coming, but before anyone else sees it, it goes behind the
sun. By the time it comes back around the sun, and everyone can tell
it is going to hit Earth, it will be too late to do anything about. I
keep checking my observations, to see if I did something wrong but
keep coming up with the conclusion that we are in big trouble.

If the electric grid stays up, there is hope. It may be the economic
disaster of all time, but the loss of life may be minimal. If the grid
goes down, I see tens of millions or more dieing. We need to be on a
war-time emergency basis to keep power going.

I sure hope I am wrong about all this, but I am usually pretty
accurate on technical matters.

spirited debate on the failures of socialism,it would be a sad day when I no longer visit my friends on Kitco......and I thought Road Rage was bad Net Rage could be more distructive

Welcome Back Mike, I will be in N.Y. August 15th, would enjoy meeting you. I will be in Cold Spring Harbor on Long Island, is that very far from you?

I will be in New Orleans August 17th, would enjoy meeting any Kitcoite in the area.

Bjack@cdsnet.net

Well done Highrise. You are right. Kitco seem to be a little slack at times Re: gold price etc.

When I receive an e-mail, as the one I posted earlier below, there is no assumption of confidentiality. This is unsolicited and certainly no friend or client of mine. This is an example of what I am dealing with; I focus on farfel and the larvae come out of the woodwork. I am not addressing these people, yet they take it upon themselves to join the attack.

PS

Crazy -

You try having a few beers and then put together sentences such as mine. I suspect you have had no beers today, yet your message to me is poorly written. Drunks and keyboards dont mix. As Jack Nicholson said in "Easy Rider", "It takes a clear miiinnd" I will not thank you for your concern as it was a thinly veiled stab of anger and deserves what it gets.

OK

Yet another unsubstantiated rumour. Japanese gold purchases would indeed be bullish for gold, but I'll believe it when I see it on Reuters or AAP.

Far too often have I seen these sorts of rumours peddled on this line and on USA Gold.

It is seldom true. All the 'goldbugs' is so desperate for good news that they have to start making it up.

Live Long an Propser ( on cold hard facts ) .

( This post was initially prompted by an earlier post re: "real wealth".

Real wealth is not 'goods', if no one/or not many, want
'the goods'.
Real wealth, might better be defined as...
the value that is always determined by the point where
supply meets demand. ....period.

Now, in the question/debate/discourse regarding "money" : ...
When it comes to the "real-wealth" value of money --
that is, money defined as a store of value, and a medium of
exchange -- history, has shown -- that the rule is...
( - except for the infrequent exceptions to the rule - such as:
for brief periods of "gold-inflation" - like - when the
European/Spanish looters, looted the civilizations of the
Americas, several centuries ago, and such as/like - the little
pimpled inflationary boils of 'gold-inflation', in isolated
gold-rush arenas, such as the Calif. gold rush of the
mid-1800's....

The rule, that makes these exceptions possible, relative,
relevant, or meaningful at all, is that:: )

only gold, has stood the test of time, through-out all
recorded history of known human-kind ( - & unkind ) .

It is the only specie, medium, unit, money, exchange mechanism,
and means of store-of-value... that was been accepted, by free
choice, by the greatest numbers of inhabitants, of this
earthly planet .... no matter their skin color,
or their degree of education, or their degree of freedom
to dis-agree - with formal education... and no matter their
wealth, station, influence, pre-eminence - or their
ignorance or disdain there-of, or their disinterest there-in.

The ultimate, "real wealth" question is this:

Will the civilized world, as we know it, decide to wrest
control of it's fate & destiny, from it's own fear-based
institutions, it's purchased-governments, and it's current
global crisis - as it gasps on the verge of drowning in
tempestuous seas -- storming seas of competitive currency
devaluations/looming trade-wars - of nuclear-armed nationalism -
and of choking false-paradises of false wealth & esteem ..
- built on pyramids of debt-based money, banking, and business
institutions. .... addicted to money & credit that are being
created out of thin air, and offered to the highest bidder.

The challenge before us, is this:
Can this, our global economy & community of nations, in this
time of modern world civilization, while
existing on this one fragile, delicate, beautiful, magnificent
planet earth .... can we, come to our senses in time, and
recognize, that we must recognize -- our leaders, governemnts,
bankers & businesses included -- our primal need - for
a universal form of money, a medium of exchange,
& a store of value, that is acceptable to,
and will willing to be used by
the greatest majority, of the greatest number
of all nations & peoples.

History has, time & again, determined that the only enduring, stable
& trusted, universal form of money ( -& credit defind&tied there-to )
has alwasy been gold.

With an international gold-based onetary & credit system, at least then,our careening world, will have a 'fighting-chance' at
finding enough time, and sufficient security, and available
political leadership-sanity, and collective willingness ...
to risk ..... building a new goloabl monetary & economic world, for the new millenium.

Gold-backed money holds the historical track-record, and the
hopeful future...for sufficient trust, balance and
enduring stability among all antions,
to fuel commerce, trade, communication, creativity, productivity
... and ...
the flourishing of a new millenium ....
of fulfillment, abundance, and peace.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com
essene@k-online.com

P.S.
Meanwhile, the nitty gritty, and immediately critical work...
has to be undertaken: to risk high, and low -- to dig down deep,
in the rubble of SE Asia & Russia; and to reach even higher
than the towers of babble in Europe and the U.S.A. ....

If the freedom loving peoples of freedom loving nations will
demand - the truth of monetary integrity - of themselves,
their governments, banks, businesses;
then our world's global economy & civilization...
will rescue & revive, the promise of a new world millenium.

It will be an '11th-hour' self-rescue - from drowning in a sea
of corrupt international currency agreements/money-systems,
and the cancerous debt-ruled institutions of government and
business, that have been spawned over the last several decades.

Ultimately, whether in this generation, or the next,
reality, truth, and humanity's love of life and liberty, will
dawn and triumph, once again. And the life-boat of rescue,
from this impending ... economic, financial, investment,
and political armageddon-sea ... will be found in gold.

France ( definition ) : a little country in Europe, with good wines, French bread, high taxes and high arrogance.

1. Jacques Chirac ( French president ) joking with students in Angers :
"I'm more concerned by the 'bug de l'an 2000' than by the economic health of our country".

Please, do not think he deems y2k a serious problem ! Now the explanation : since the day he was mocked at for not ever knowing what "a mouse" was, he desperately tries to display a high-tech oriented profile - his PR team may have suggested the retort. I don't know whether Al Gore gave him some advice...

2. Soccer in the 21st century
As someone noted in this ng, the Soccer World Cup took place in France in 1938, 60 years ago. Less than 2 years after, we faced a war we brilliantly lost at the beginning - after that, we helped
the American to win it for us...
I believe in Kondratiev cycles, History repeats itself...
But the American won't come to the rescue this time.

** BTW, SOCCER IS A PLAGUE AND I CAN'T VOTE WITH MY FEETS ! **
A French expression is "bete comme ses pieds" ( = a real fool ) .

3. French banks : are they toast ?
I'm doing remediation in a big French bank - no name, but it has many subsidiaries and branches over the world. I attended a meeting with the Y2K worldwide manager. He told us : - "We're late, the planning is tight, we hoped having finished in 1999, but because of the Americans, y2k updates must be ready BY end 1998". ( they will not, I bet on it ) -
"Should any outsider ask you about our compliance, tell them that "we'll be OK". We already prepared forms to send back to any customer inquiring our y2k status. Of course, we'll for sure have some disruptions ( grin ) , but we'll repair them on the fly. "

The words "contingency planning" were mentioned without insisting on it ( oh ! you have me scared ! ) .

Now, their real y2k status right now : "well, let's begin by converting our programs from OS/VS Cobol to Cobol/MVS, because only the latter is Y2K compliant. And we must migrate to LE/370, do regression testing, etc. What do I do with Cobol programs calling assembler programs calling Cobol programs ? Did the systems guys build a y2k lpar with the few disks they were granted ?".
And the major question : where are the damned sources ?? Programmers say they feel giddy working 2 days on the Euro, 1 day on y2k, 2 days on BAU maintenance...

My overall impression : an appalling insouciance. BTW, "insouciance" - very revealing ! - is a French word which characterizes very well our atavistic French mentality : always acting on the very last minute, be late whenever you can. The reality check will be harsh.

The only bank that seems good in its way to y2k is CCF, but they began in 1995 ( and they are not finished yet ) . Hardly any bank has already built a y2k lpar or "time machine" ( it's often planned for fall 1998 ) .

4. Gerard Thery ( y2k czar ) and the French government say :
"We must increase awareness, but not dramatize".
Still no mention of any budget. Still their conviction only small businesses are in jeopardy. They are just beginning to realize that, perhaps, the administrations also could not make it...

5. Awareness in newspapers :
Can be boiled down to "Yes, your PC may choke on 1/1/2000. And keep a little cash in advance, one never knows...". Very few serious articles on the matter, one in May in "Les Echos" ( economical magazine ) , and in "Le Monde Informatique" a fiction by Thierry Falissart, with a worst-case scenario very close to what is continually mentioned in csy2k ( cute from him because he foresees problems - like collapse of the fiat money - for mid-1999, not 2000 as the clueless usually imagine ) . I sent him an email ( he is a well-known mainframe guru here ) to know his real opinion. He says he's not willing to become a doomsayer nor a French Paul Milne / Tim May / Gary North ( choose your one ) , but he thinks his doomdays scenario is possible. French speaking people can read his article at http://www.lmi.fr/lmi/768/768p86.html
or on Falissart's web site ( I don't have the URL at hand ) .

The general opinion among French IT guys is this :
"The American - and all the Anglo-Saxons - are crazy to worry so much".

The embedded systems problem has never been mentioned at any level. I wonder what they'll say when they realize it is ( or may be ) real. I imagine it : "we are smarter than the Americans,
the chips in our nuclear plants are smarter than theirs, coz' they were invented here, they are a national proud, etc. Titanic was an English achievement, not a French one. And our electricity production far exceeds our needs. Don't worry be happy. We'll all celebrate y2k under the Eiffel Tower and the juice will be there.

Again, the reality check will be harsh. No more news : so long, you frog-flamers !
Jacques Dilbert, June 1998 -- oops ! This is not Y10K-compliant ! Where is my contingency planning ?

You are one of a very few professionals around here.
Do not waste your energy for nothing, although I can perfectly
understand you - when somebody posts a complete bull sh*t
about some Russian stuff, I have emotions too...because
I know this stuff.

But, you, know, there is a freedom of speech, which makes
it possible for everybody to express opinions, even if
somebody does not like those opinions.

On the other hand, if you feel that you got seriously
attacked - always answer with the bigger gun, like you do,
like my brother John does, like me does...That is your
holly right, and self-defence with the gun or keyboard
is a natural instinct of a human being.

The only thing I want to say to you that if your opponent
is kind of funny, may be it's just logical to assume that
many reasonable people can also understand it, it is usually
quite obvious to reasonable people. In this case, may be you
do not need to shoot, save your ammo for real targets...

What is gonna happen in PM market in June? Your opinion
will be highly appreciated.

PaineWebber Y2K
Many year 2000 fears are overblown;
Benefits of "2K" dividend" yet to be felt.

From Malthus'1798 famine prediction, to 1970's forcast of energy shortages, year 2000 scare is latest in long series of catastrophic predictions.

Consultants - many of whom are offering year 2000 consulting services--are generally more pessimistic about y2k than business managers.

The problem has long been recognized.
The resources are available.

OMB says that "virtually all ( Federal ) agencies have adopted accelerated schedules for the completion of their Y2K work, and only a small number of mission-critical systems are not already scheduled to be fixed by March 31.1999"

But, even the last government shut-down ( 1995 budget confilict ) didn't cause a recession.

The Y2K dividend

New and more productive computer systems will be the easiest solution for the y2k problem-and will pay a "y2k dividend". Further, in meeting y2k deadlines, computer technicians are sure to learn how to enhance their efficiency. So addressing the y2k problem will likely benefit the economy in that it leads to greater information processing capabilities, and ultimately boosts productivity. In recent years, the technology sector has been responsible for more than one-quarter of real economic growth.
_________________________________________________________
To make the boys on kitco feel better.

A very wealthy friend of mine from Switzerland who manages 2 billion dollars of peoples money has 25% invested in gold. He says buy now when no one else wants it....

Re your note "to the boys at Kitco". Don't forget us girls. We hold gold too. And not just in jewelry!

Welcome back. Couple of days back APH said Arch Crawford is looking to short metals on July 23. Have you heard of that and what's your read on that forecast.

Welcome back. Couple of days back APH said Arch Crawford is looking to short metals on July 23. Have you heard of that and what's your read on that forecast.

Salvation, whatever salvation means, is not to be obtained on
any reasonable terms. Reason is an impasse, reason is damnation;
only madness, divine madness, offers an issue. The law of the
Lord Chancellor will not serve; the law-giver may be an epileptic
camel-driver like Mohammed, a megalomaniac provincial upstart
like Napoleon, or even an exile, three-parts learned, one-part
crazy, an attic dweller in Soho, like Karl Marx. There is only
one thing in common among such persons; they are all mad , that is
inspired. Nearly all primative people possess this tradition,at
least in a diluted form. They respect the wandering lunatic, for
it may be that he is the messenger of the "Most High".
This queer stranger? Let us entreat him kindly. It maybe that
we entertain an angel unawares.

Down .50, Silver down .08.

http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

Buying a maple leaf in Japan will cost you 48,573 yen
48573 Japan ( yen ) is equivalent to 335.153700 US per ounce ( 6/12/98 )
http://www.inter-g7.or.jp/tanaka/price-e.html

When this forum goes for weeks about guns, and astrology, and WWI and every other damn thing except gold, it is OK, yes? But I am wasting bandwidth when I try to speak of THE ACTUAL MARKETS?

Farfel robs you all with his constant attacks and I suspect his intent is to disrupt and pander and any other thing to remain the center of attention. Remember, this is a guy who pitches gold to friends and acquaintances at cocktail parties, and declares PGMs dead based on the word of a drunk felon at a party? ( bait )

You are a bunch of nodding heads, like those old paper-mache dogs with the spring necks you used to see in the back of some folks cars. You need more nodding heads? This will get you closer to the truth? Or do you want to know what IS? The sun rises in the East. That IS. Farfels feverishly trying to sell his hackneyed agenda. It is EXACTLY what you want to hear. People are always warm and fuzzy to hear EXACTLY what they want to hear. Politicians make their living doing this.

Look around the universe. Where are things one sided? Anywhere? But this site is so damn one sided as to become useless.

This site is increasingly useless.

It is a fan club.

It cannot be taken seriously if this continues

Rah Rah, Sis boom BAH.

Screw this

This is, without question or retort ( 'cept from the heathen ) ,
one of the most exquisite, enlightened posts, ever to annoint
we 'kitkoites', upon this posting board.
But be careful, my dear Hedgehog, the cursing-mudgeons of
self-righteous condemnation, abound everywhere.
...
rooted in their fear.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com
essene@k-online.com

This is, without question or retort ( 'cept from the heathen ) ,
one of the most exquisite, enlightened posts, ever to annoint
we 'kitkoites', upon this posting board.
But be careful, my dear Hedgehog, the cursing-mudgeons of
self-righteous condemnation, abound everywhere.
...
rooted in their fear.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com
essene@k-online.com

People WILL surprise you won't they! You can never tell what is going on in someone's mind until you draw them out or they voluntarily open up. Not EVERYONE out there is your typical Joe Sixpak, despite appearances. Your cab driver didn't happen to tell you when interest rates were going to reverse or the dollar was going to fall out of bed did he? Wish more people out there would surprise me with their knowledge of economics.

Gold and silver now unchanged. Volatile trading.

http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

( The US Dollar )

As the owner of a Canadian telecommunications company, the power of the $US dollar is both a blessing and a curse. The hardware I must purchase to grow my business is priced only in $US dollars and is becoming increasingly expensive. However, the service I sell is priced in Canadian dollars and may be easily sold in the United States at a much reduced rate compared to my US competitors.

The resultA continued imbalance between the US dollar and the rest of the world will hurt the US economy is a very major way. But it will take a while. Perhaps 6-18 months. Those who are suffering the pain of a weak currency will come back to haunt the US market as has happened before.

( The Year 2K )

A friend of mind attended a course the other day that was sponsored by a major telecommunications company. The presenter, a smart well educated software manager, took time out to inform the students that he too was very worried about Y2K.

His comments were'I've purchased 5K in gold which is not being stored in a bank. I have a generator, fuel, and one month of food. I will be converting all of my equity to cash over the next 12 months and it too will be taken out of the bank'. Its not that I'm scared but rather I'm prudent. If all goes well, I will have a new generator, some food for camping, $5K in gold and a bunch of cash that can be returned to the bank.

( Gold )

We have not had the crisis that is required to resurrect this beast yet. It is still a number of months away.

Hmmmm $335., thats not a bad premium to the spot price. One wonders if the Gold price in terms of the Yen will actually be rising, given the meltdown in the currency.
All, remember there are many nations around the world where you would be doing very well holding 2 year old Gold, given the multiple currency collapses...... Who is next on the list ? Canada ?

and resonates with truth. Years ago I used to train systems engineers on how to design applications for Stratus computers. The class was usually international. The day started at 9 am and ended at 6 pm.

- The Americans got to class a around 9am and worked fairly hard, rarely asked questions, took an hour lunch, usually got the work done on time, and left a little late.
- The Japanese were usually already there by 8am working. They asked lots of questions, always got the work done, skipped lunch, grabbed a quick dinner, and went back to work until 9 pm.
- The French got there around 9:30 or 10am, talked about what they were going to have for lunch, did some work, never asked any questions, went to lunch for a couple of hours, came back and did a little work, talked about what they were going to have for dinner, and left around 4:30 for dinner.

-EJ

Y2K may not be so bad after all the stuff these guys predict. Scroll down and click on the Scallion interview and then go to the 'transcripts' menu at the top to get the recent one from Ed Dames...Buy Gold and Silver ( and other life-preserving items ) http://www.artbell.com

In January 1976, the IMF approved the principle of demonetizing gold and that decision officially came into force on 1 April 1978.
Since then, the member countries of that UN specialized agency

MAY NO LONGER MAKE ANY REFERENCE TO GOLD IN FIXING THE VALUE OF THEIR CURRENCY.
http://ibis.ib.upu.org/AN/Manuels/Constitution/index.html

COMMENT: Let us DO remember this. Craft a catchy slogan, the economic equivalent of "Remember the Maine"; "Remember Pearl Harbor Let's try to have it ready before Settlement Day arrives..

How far will the Japanese let the yen fall?
I say 160.

Tin mines may be doing brisk business by the middle of next year. How long does Chef Boyardee keep anyways, until Y10K?

MoreGold,

Don't know about Chef Boyardee...but it tastes like it might last a few decades. My choice would be the freeze-dried stuff. Canadian Army surplus ( and probably US too ) is fairly cheap, reasonably tasty and good for a long while.

The interesting thing about the comments relayed to me was the look on my friend's face when she told me about the instructors comments. She was astonished that a sophisticated s/w developer would say such a thing.

Even funnier was when I relayed the same story to two Bank of Nova Scotia managers and they wondered what would happen if a lot of people had the same idea that he did...Maybe a run a temporary run on cash ???

TOKYO, June 12 ( Reuters ) - Embattled Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto on Friday easily survived a no-confidence motion launched against him by
opposition parties over his handling of the country's ailing economy.

The 500-seat Lower House of parliament defeated the motion by a vote of 273 to 207, with 20 votes not cast on a day when the Japanese economy was
formally shown to be in recession.

The motion accused Hashimoto of poor management of the economy and failing to address political corruption following recent financial scandals involving
bureaucrats.

BCIWN ( yen @ 144.85 ) : It will probably continue to fall until
the BOJ has accumulated about 8,000 tonnes of gold to back
the yen.

Bill: I live not very far from Cold spring Harbor. I'll see you August 15th!

NJ: I don't know what Arch Crawford is basing his shorting of metals on at July 23. The only thing I see is that transiting Mars opposes Comex Gold's orginal contract Sun, Mercury and Venus lineup between July 23 and August 12. But my XAU horoscope and my NYSE 'scope do not show much of anything to confirm this. Though XAU does get an opposition from Mars to its Mercury the 30th and 31st of July. But I don't see that as more than a blip. I'll keep looking tho. I always listen when Arch has something to say, but we astrologers are like anyone else in any other discipline - we can all be looking at the same thing and see something different. I seems to me the time to short the metals was several weeks ago, and by July 23 we might very well be in a decent uptrend. Either gold is testing its lows now and will rally very shortly, or we will ALL be driving taxis!

Don't laugh but I have heard certain stock analysts will be recomending companies that manufacture and sell camping and other types of survivalists gear based on Y2K fear sales.
The real desperado will go out and buy his own farm, you will see all kinds of strange stories emerging next year. If nothing else, it will be entertaining.....

U.K. foreign secretary just put the word out that England will be converting to the EURO dollar much sooner than expected, probably in the first few months of the year 2000.

This is not real good news for the U.S. dollar.

You mean I MISSED a few weeks of astrology? ( ;- )

This guy is very serious about owning a gold mine.
http://www.freeedgar.com/companies/index.htm
Look up HM or Homestake Mining

EXHIBIT A


=========================================================================
Date Shares US$ Price per share
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/12/98 489,200 3,834,161.48 7.84
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/13/98 328,000 2,641,013.36 8.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/14/98 330,000 2,805,320.10 8.50
--------- ---------------------------------------------------------------
1/15/98 114,800 975,370.65 8.50
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/20/98 10,000 90,313.65 9.03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/21/98 620,000 5,676,195.67 9.16
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/22/98 420,000 3,864,142.56 9.20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/23/98 30,000 269,054.70 8.97
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/26/98 1,220,000 11,779,458.80 9.66
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/27/98 572,000 5,482,047.35 9.58
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/28/98 164,000 1,591,681.43 9.71
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/29/98 1,343,000 13,202,015.86 9.83
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/30/98 424,000 4,130,493.55 9.74
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/2/98 30,000 292,764.00 9.76
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/3/98 208,000 1,956,679.42 9.41
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/4/98 559,000 5,559,394.75 9.95
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/6/98 100,000 1,002,277.80 10.02
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/11/98 350,000 3,486,332.50 9.96
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/27/98 832,000 8,284,540.16 9.96
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/2/98 315,100 3,143,885.04 9.98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/3/98 1,214,100 12,111,388.10 9.98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/4/98 350,800 3,506,901.37 10.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/5/98 486,100 4,839,964.53 9.96
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/11/98 111,000 1,099,662.57 9.91
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/18/98 1,050,000 9,695,028.00 9.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/19/98 300,000 2,773,224.00 9.24
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/22/98 1,000,000 12,546,440.00 12.55
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/23/98 1,020,500 13,125,034.40 12.86
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/24/98 74,700 974,732.27 13.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/27/98 100,000 1,199,655.00 12.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/28/98 100,000 1,188,337.50 11.88
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/4/98 100,000 1,186,768.14 11.87
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/13/98 230,000 2,621,781.50 11.40
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/14/98 974,000 11,543,419.44 11.85
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/15/98 500,000 6,192,760.00 12.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/18/98 676,200 8,210,352.78 12.14
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/19/98 600,000 7,285,140.00 12.14
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/21/98 639,000 7,697,129.78 12.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/22/98 662,200 8,134,101.75 12.28
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/25/98 306,000 3,714,787.98 12.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/27/98 938,000 10,632,445.74 11.34
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/28/98 723,000 7,819,165.47 10.81
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 20,614,700 218,165,387.14 10.58
=======================================================================

Please take a minute and scroll through this list of banks.
http://www.barakat.com/mbrmuser.html

Take a look at their software for with currency derivatives ( e.g. )
http://www.barakat.com/products.html

It is rumored that the Barakat family recently gifted a chair at Oxford for Islamic studies. Actually, I believe I read that in FT, but I'm
not 100% sure... {:- )

MoReGold,

Actually I'm not laughing. To be honest, I don't really know what angle to take on this whole Y2K thing. I made about $25K last year telling a Canadian Telecom company that one of their products was impossible to fix for Y2K compliance. It actually stopped working in October 98. Their solution was to buy-out all existing stock and recommend another vendor's product.

Because I have most of my equity in my own business, I don't have a lot of free cash or equities to dump. I do however buy a little gold every couple of months.

All I know about Arch crawford is from the APH post which is reproduced below.

Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 09:42
APH ( Arch Crawford & Metals ) ID#254201:
I just read Arch Crawford's projection of a significant high in metals and oil on July 23, he plans to short that day. Coincident to that my ratio analyis of the silver waves projected a high for the current leg
up on 7/23. Look for the 7.00 silver target to be reached around 7/23. I would then expect a correction into Aug. taking silver under 6.00 and the possible final low in gold.

This provides an important puzzle piece. Please note the prohibition is
to MENTION gold and your national currency in the same breath. They,
USG/IMF, call this demonitizing. Very much in line with the Clinton staffer who said, "Truth is what we say it is." ( Obviously an
individual who completely misundersood Alice in Wonderland. )

A reasonable conclusion to this folly, particularly as one works the
time-line, is that there may well be 8,000 tons of gold in Fort Knox, but it doesn't belong to US.

According to latest Barron's he now owns 9.7% of HM. What does he know?
I have some but have not been overly impressed with their performance. But then, I am not selling it either.

If I had a choice of you are Fartful to be with me in battle, no matter the just cause, guess who I'd choose to be in the foxhole? And since I'm off topic already... ( they can throw me off too for all I care! ) ....let me tell you a short true life story, which sounds cliched but is completely a real event.

My son ( who I raised as single Dad for many years ) was in 4th grade and stayuing in after school "Kid club" program. My son is a peaceful, easygoing, happy kinda kid. He was constantly tormented by a bully at this place.

The leadership of the program was not solving the problem. Finally I gave my son some necessary advice. "Next time he shoves you" I said to him, give him a warning that if he does it again you will hit him back, HARD. Then follow through.

Guess what happened next day? I got to school to pick him up. The "Leaders" of Kids club were all upset. "Your son may have to be expelled from the program" they said. "He decked this kid and gave him a bloody nose, and we have a no tolerance policy for violence. We'll have to do something about it unless you discipline him".

I sat the 2 leaders down ( young college kids making a few bucks ) and explained to them, that there are times in life where a swift, sure, and violent response is the only way to handle cowardly, bullying, pompous, Buttheads. I also explained to them, that self defense is as American a concept as exists, particularly when the "authorities" fail to control situations which require such control.

Finally, I exalined to them, that not only was my son NOT going to receieve a consequence, he instead would be COMMENDED by me for doing the hard, but courageous thing he needed to do.

Final outcome? The college kids had no response but blubbering...they realized that both my son and I had been in the right. The bully never messed with my son again, the "Leaders" said no more about the matter, and I took my son to dinner and congratulated him on learnign an important life lesson!

Hmmmm...I wonder what the world would be like today if we had ALL been "civil" and "nice" like that appeasing British A hole, Neville Chamberlin and the Vishi French folks when Hitler came to power?????

Ohh yeah.......Go Gold...uhhuh

( Hold the Prozac wielding, head bobbing, emasculation police, off at gunpoint dude! )

What one finds of interest is the global corporations in which the Good Baron Finch has large positions.

Corporations that routinely utilize GF. {:- )
A man who understands the buttering of bread is Baron Finck.

Rhetorical questions:
Does Von Finck know something? Will he buy more?

At least somebody with big bucks ( marks ) is bullish on gold and visibly doing something.

http://gopher.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/truth.html

-EJ

Back on topic, I've heard very little discussion here about stories emerging this past week re EU plans to hold their Gold reserves to 10% or 15% for the Euro. This does not bode well for Gold, nor does it bode well for prospects on more CB sales, once the final decisions are made. I've been predicting 15% here for awhile...appears I may have been a bit optimistic even at that.

( PS..Go Gold...uhhuh )

Living proof that RICH PEOPLE CAN BE STUPID. Sorry, just kidding but I could not resist.

HK off 245.49 -- 3.10%

If Currencies r backed by gold-why does it not bode well for gold?

More important than the actual content of the ECB reserves is the control of the assets left at the member banks. This applies to dollars and yen as well as gold. Will Germany or France be allowed to sell any of their remaining reserves? If so how much? and over what time frame? Bill Murphy has started a thread at SI to discuss this stuff. I hope the answers will make it to Kitco first.

Any updates.

They can afford to be! {:- ) )

von Finck is a German industrialist who is probably doing a little diversification. Probably on advise of some broker who thinks he knows something ;- ) But then, they say buy low and sell high and the AU stocks sure look low from here. Good luck von Finck!

to zero. Nikkei down 122 at open then right away up to -90 and moving sideways for hours.

In an hour I'll be ready to place my bets on the Nikkei close ( above or below 15000 ) and DOW Monday open and close ( up or down ) . The usual: a fifth of B&W Smirnoff. Any takers?

-EJ

I would say your post ----Date: Sun Jun 14 1998 19:23
vronsky ( Prometheus: Yen, Yuan & Gold ) ID#426220:
was very insightful, and I would only add that I think the Japanese
have already done their work, based on my take of the looks of the
Nikkei and yen charts. Guessing, I suppose, as the trend is down, but
the patterns and the timing looks like a turn maybe near. Who knows...
the "Shadow?"

MIG-29 to be a serious aircraft, which is funny because you
do not have any practical knowledge about it, I must admit
that I liked the story about your son and your approach to
solving school problem...

In regard to our friend Farfel, the only problem I have
is that he really did not care to buy more, because
considering the unbelievable frequency of his "don't care and
buy more" statements, I can not get it why POG is still at
this level. With the buying effort he demonstrated I figure
the gold should be way above $400 at this very time...

I know he was just kidding, but what if he really could
buy every time he did not care... That would be great, yes?

Don't worry 'bout the French; they have "System-D".

July AG $ 5.08
July AU $ 286.20
SPU 11230 +10

can NOT exist without GF as a settlement currency. Now, if you have
a currency that you will "settle" in, you need do HAVE some of it on
hand, yes? When the dollar was the key currency, contracts --where
ever they had been written-- were denominated in $ ( to be SETTLED in $ ) everyone held $...

Whenever I read postings from gold detractors that are unusually heated and emotional and ad hominem, then I know fully well that we are truly in the midst of a psychological trend shift.

When there is absolute mass certitude that a trend will perpetuate itself ad infinitum, then beneficiaries of the trend tend to resist emotional involvement in arguments pro or con.

Why?

Because the trend itself is so strong that arguments in support are really unnecessary while arguments against will not have any effect.

Yet, we are experiencing the most tumultous year of the Ninetie's expansion replete with a plethora of left-field events as never seen before. Almost every day, we awake to read about some new, horrifying economic debacle offshore marked by currency upheaval and political unrest.

These myriad negative events make it almost impossible to believe that any international stock market can be ascending vertically and still be operating "logically." After all, we live in an extremely interlinked world in which no country is an island unto itself any longer.

Analogously, one can only ponder how strange it is that gold, the time-tested repository of flight to safety, can languish during such turbulent times.

As I have stated in previous posts, markets today can stay out of equilibrium for lengthy periods of time...but ultimately, the equilibrium must return.

For the Dow/Nasdaq, equilibrium will be much lower.

For gold, of course, the equilibrium must be much higher.

Recognizing these simple Truths, then proponents of the past decades trends ( Up-Dow, Down-gold ) who have vested stakes in maintaining these dominant trends will fight bitterly and emotionally any attempts to reveal the invalidity of such trends. Whether they admit it or not, they are experiencing severe internal dissonance from the anomalies of markets
out of whack.

Thanks.

F*

Mike,
I want to be like Mike.

Sorry if this has already been posted,, good story on silver

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-4850902

rb

Bart is bringing new and improved quotes and charts on line soon. While we wait:

Go here http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm for quotes

What indicators do you have that say the BOJ is holding more than the supposed 400 tonnes purchased? Vronsky..... 8000 Tonnes! 2/3 of what is held in all of Europe! Rational please. They will never get there before the price blows. That says Reify may be correct ( at least partly ) .

All of this is pure spec. until there is some form of confirmation.

Well, it is certainly good to see you back safe and sound and in good humor. Who the hell do you think you are? God. Get ANOTHER life.

Find a HEART. You need one

Tom

Thanks for story comment Oris. As to MIG 29, I didn't say anything about it good or bad, it was the MIG 25 that Lt. Belenko flew to Japan that I had made reference to as being way behind what had been expected, in capabilities and sophistication.

However, as many have pointed out, there is more than one kind of strategy in war, and sophisticated weapons aren't always the best weapons. Didn't help us much in the NAM after all, but then we weren't really allowed to go all out there.

Canadian Museum of Civilization has a big exhibition on Egypt and the Pharaohs right now. Everyone walks around looking at the artifacts...some of which are very beautiful golden items...and they say to each other "That must be worth a lot !!!".

And I turn on the TV and watch the discovery program where a program on sunken ships and treasures and more stuff on Egypt and the announcers talk about the 'beauty and value of the golden treasure'.

And then I hear some financial wizard says 'Gold is a useless relic of the past that will soon be nothing more then a commodity'.

Now someone is right and someone is wrongIf only I could figure out who.

Merck to test Alzheimer's drug. Baron Von Finck of Germany is the first volunteer.

Hope tomorrow finds everyone in a better mood. Yes!

Lot's of implications from this source. It should be obvious to all by now. If you can, I would like to email a little off subject. cdevoto@abts.net Thanx, Charlie

Thanks for reposting the Ted Butler article link. He's definitely made some excellent points on the potential for silver in his writings. I'm takining the liberty to post one quote from the essay which kinds sums it up.

"What Warren Buffett has done, more than anything else, is alert anyone intelligent enough to listen about a world class investment opportunity. I can just about hear him describing silver as an ongoing business or stock. "Here is low price venture that is guaranteed never to go bankrupt. It will always have a ready liquidation value. I can own it in size. It is 98% below its inflation adjusted high price of twenty years ago. I never have to worry about bad management taking over. Shares outstanding are being reduced by twenty per cent a year. It requires no time, no maintenance and little ongoing expense. It is like no other asset and is a prudent diversification. It is impervious to currency and political upheaval. It has stood the test of time for utility and desirability. It is known and wanted by every inhabitant on the earth. It is out of favor currently with the establishment. It has the largest naked short position ever known in history. The risk/reward ratio is so good it's scary. Forget compliant, it's Y2K enhanced. And, although it probably shouldn't matter at my age, it is the sexiest investment I own."

Conference aims to end differences over international court

ROME ( AP ) -- Fifty years ago, out of the blood and ashes of the Second World War, the idea for an international tribunal to prosecute crimes like genocide emerged. On Monday, a UN conference to map out the court's final shape begins.

The court is intended to step in only when national governments are unable or unwilling to do so. Unlike the World Court in The Hague, Netherlands, which handles disputes between states,

******the new court would try individuals.********

To protect American troops abroad, the United States wants the Security Council to have ultimate say. The United States, like the other permanent members, could use its veto power over the council to control the court.

During his weekly appearance St. Peter's Square on Sunday, Pope John Paul said he hoped the UN conference would be inspired "by the desire to adequately safeguard fundamental and inalienable human rights."
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.UN-International-Court.html

Other than ssc - bvn - and cde does anyone know of any silver mines listed? Thanks in advance
maybe I am just Art Belled out but it sure feels like D-Day is fast aproaching. God Bless

You made a thinly veiled comment to the effect that those of us who enjoy a balanced view of Gold's potential, are somehow lacky's of some establishment benefit, making ad hominum attacks, becoming louder as we feel "threatened" etc etc ad nauseum.

At the risk of wasting more bandwidth, may I politely point out the fallacies of your argument. First of all, while this may come as an extreme shock to you, many of us out here are PRO GOLD and yet we still can aknowledge BOTH SIDES, of it's future potential. Yes I know this must be a foreign concept...balanced thoughtful analysis rather than knee jerk extremist propagandizing...however, the balanced approach is one that seems to have worked well for quite some time.

For example, I would never recommend someone read Ted Butler's commentaries on silver, without also reading Martin Armstrong. See, this way the intelligent and analylitcal mind can ferret out the truth.

Again, if you're a voter, I always find it wise to read both/all sides of a Proposition argument, listen to both candidates views, etc etc...

Yes, I'm sure this all comes as a shocking attitude on my part, being that someone who deigns to ever look honestly at Gold must be some mole from an imagined "enemy camp" and all....but actually FarFull, as a part time Gold Numismatic coin dealer, and as a PM investor, and as someone who loves the shiny stuff, I can tell ya honestly, it's the TRUTH about Golds potential that I'm interested in, not some self appointed Guru's constant propagandizing.

Don't worry though Farf..... maybe someday totalitarian rule will return to some of our former Communist minded societies, and you can go live there where "pretending" something is so, is much more iimportant than it BEING so.

As the good Dr. Zhivago said to the rabid communist Ivan Farfenko;

Ivan "Does it give you pleasure that there's typhus in the city?"

Zhivago "No..it gives me pleasure to hear you ADMIT that there is"

Ivan "Why?"

Zhivago "Because it is so"

humanity,I refer you to the recent hit piece by CNN on the so called sarin gas attack in Vietnam....this world court trashes the constitution.....

Kia Motors to close plants temporarily

SEOUL ( AP ) -- Bankrupt Kia Motors ordered its plants locked Sunday for 10 days as negotiations with striking workers failed to make progress. Kia's 20,000-member union said, however, that its members would continue to go to their work places to picket and shout slogans.

"The closure of the plants is a prelude to layoffs. We will keep fighting until our fair demands are accepted," said Shin Tae-sup, a union spokesman.

Kia Motors, once the nation's second largest automaker, is in court receivership after going bankrupt last July under the weight of $1 billion in bank loans.

Kia workers then walked off their jobs, demanding that the company pay overdue wages and guarantee job security after the auction. Kia workers have been paid only half of their wages since last July.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.SKorea-Kia-Motors.html

for some time now I've been watching world news for reports of civil unrest across the globe. For a 'peaceful' time this is surprisingly agitated. Here are two from Yahoo tonight. Goodnight ( %-^] )

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/980614/news/stories/soccer_1.html
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/980614/news/stories/bissau_2.html

DUH, you know the UN is setting up 2 ( two ) world courts DUH.

I mean hong kong looks about as powerful as that little taco bell mut. now down 4.41%

.robnoel you suggest, "this world court trashes the constitution....."

I have a view that suggests that the USofA Corporation agenda has, and continues, to trash the USofA constitution, and also, has been front and centre, in the ongoing destruction of rights, freedoms and democracy of the USofA, and YES, CANADA.

Your Vietnam view, that the honour of a soldier, can be taken to this court, may have merit. Although, such will never happen. A bright light will be turned on, to show the truth of vietnam. Such truth will dictate, that the OIL interests, wanted a government they could control, reason, sulfur- free oil deposits, and natural gas, off the coast of vietnam.
( check out the corporations that have present drilling rights in Vietnam )

No they want the world court, to inflict deadly harm upon those freedom loving individuals, that have a base of support amongst the people, those people that have a national DREAM, for democracy and freedom.

FWIW Take Care

Hey Mike! Nice to see you back. I hope your absence from Kitco was a pleasurable one. ( Take that any way you wish...;- ) One of the strangest realities at Kitco has always been that 99% of the posts are related in one way or another to the fundamentals of precious metals investing. But that is the very area which is the hardest to get reliable or believable information about. Even if you have such information, its value is so great that it WILL NOT be published in this setting. So it seems quite obvious to me that technical analysis of all sorts, including financial astro such as you do, is worth far more than the endless politico-econo-babble. Much of the latter is charming from a literary or comedic point of view, but shouldn't we be looking at the technical side at least as much as the funnymental?????

The traditional value of gold as a store of wealth remains unchanged, despite propaganda from equities pushers to the contrary. There are, however, more sellers than buyers to support a higher price at this time. Events shall occur in the next year that will erode confidence in equities and the dollar. More gold buyers will appear and the price of gold will rise.

Today the Nikkei will close below 15000. The DOW will open down 60 - 80 points and close down 110 - 130.

G'Nite.

-EJ

War on drugs, you should go to UN homepage and check out the REAL
position the UN wants to play? Resource/intellegence center and arbitrator, which doesn't mean congress sold us out, just that a treaty
might give UN powers that would make constitution a moot issue.

Thinking of you tonight.
-EJ

Liberty: I like your style. The idea is balanced analysis -- analysis that is consistently one way or the other way is suspect.

Farfel: He has a point, doesn't he? Gold has been going down for nearly 20 years, and I know people who have been non-stop bullish gold for all of those twenty years. This is why we need the shorter term types such as EB, Oldman, and RJ on this site for balance. Cyclist and APH are of similar ilk. How about this -- how about promising not to be non-stop bullish gold -- how about the analysis I know you are capable of. Perhaps then we can have a truce, and everyone will post.