I suggest that you direct all your hostilities towards the writers of those anti-gold TV/Radio commercials.

Crazytimes - The June 14 edition of the "Northern Miner" page 6, has an article on NASD BB "MINE", and its not positive. The last sentence states "Your caution about this company is well advised" The Northern Miner is a conservative Canadian Mining publication.

Go Gold

May I, Sir, second, third and, 4th your comments?!?!

Multilateral Agreement on Investment

THE MAI is a treaty about international investment that is currently being negotiated under the auspices of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) , and represents a critical element of a larger strategy to codify the rules upon which a global system of production and trade depend.

Expropriation: Entrenching Private Property Rights in a Global Constitution
http://www.vcn.bc.ca/wcel/mai/welcome.html

EJ: I think you are right unfortunately -- the US markets will probably open down, since it appears that Japan is heading down again. I wish I could agree with you about gold -- I think it will not head up, despite the fact that I bet 10% of my liquid assets Friday that it would. I think we will see gold equities go down if Japan heads for serious trouble. Even gold bullion. Gold equities/bullion will probably not head up during market liquidations.

My Mexican puts will do fine unfortunately, also.

some would say Multinational Corporations already control US Government,this just makes it official

Alan: Bob I think we have good control of the situation, We want to get the market down about 20%, about even for 1998.

Robert: Yea, Alan we got too let some air out of this bubble. As long as we keep the dollar high, we will be ok. Japan needs to feel a little more pain, those people have alot of savings, they will be ok.

Alan: The main thing is that we keep inflation in check, we will give them the impression that deflation is more likely than inflation. I sure don't want to leave my job with inflation out of control

Robert: Me neither.....

"We already know, when an apology is offered this fellow, he accepts like a pompous king..."

The truly humorous part is where he was shown to be wrong and then expresses his willingness to accept an apology.

Anyway the markets open in another 9 hours or so and we shall se what we shall see.
Had a great day here on the north shore of Lake Ontario-about 85F and humid. Lots of US visitors leaving their C$1.60 bucks behind and World Cup soccer and the Blue jays and the Bulls on TV in all the Pubs.

Great BBQ and now a final skim through Kitco--what could be better.

INDONESIA

The need to protect journalists

September 1997 SUMMARY
AI INDEX: ASA 21/60/97

Censorship, harassment, intimidation and imprisonment is nothing new to the media in Indonesia. In 1994 it was estimated that some 2,000 books and publications had been banned by the Indonesian authorities since 1965 [ International PEN figure, April 1994.] Many journalists and writers have been arrested and sentenced to terms of imprisonment for writings which are considered to have insulted the President or undermined the authority of the state.

The memory of Udin s death has been recently rekindled by the violent death of another Indonesian investigative reporter, who is also believed to have been murdered [There has been speculation that another journalist, Muhammad Sayuti Haji Buchori, better known as Sanrego, who worked on the Pos Makassar in South Sulawesi, was also killed because of his investigative reporting of local corruption.
http://www.amnesty.se/aixweb97/4556.htm

All: Looks like the Nikkei 225 is trying to come back up. I think it may close above 15000.
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.html
I think Hong Kong may be another matter.

I usually just listen, but something feels very strange to me as I sit here in the quiet of a beautifull night in northen Indiana...We are having a replay of the 1930s again...There is no chance of inflation re-igniting while huge sections of the world economy are losing any confidence whatsoever. I would guess that if you had a way of directly measuring velocity of money, you would find a dramatic decrease in its value over in Asia. People are scared and going to cash ( especially U.S. Dollars.. )

The Fed, AG and the big boys in Europe better wake up and help kick start the economies in Asia real quick by CUTTING short-term rates now.

IMHO & FWIW
Scallion is playing on the ignorance of the masses. EVERYTHING ( sorry for the shout ) that he states as a great wondrous revelation or new thing under the sun or in the sun is either OLD NEWS to we who have an earth & space science background or it is new news ONLY because we have not been looking before - such as the solar stuff.
Example: - and I wonder why Scallion hasn't picked this up.
Billions of people live in warm climates - tropics, subtropics, semi-arid savannahs or arid deserts, etc. Our entire western and judeo-christian history comes from the semi-arid middle east or mediterranean region.
If you told these people that right now, in the middle of summer in central North America it is snowing! Garden plants must be covered every night or they will perish! Water bowls for livestock and pets freeze over every day! People scrape their windshields of ice! Vast snowfields and icefields many meters deep cover the land! A new ice age is dawning! The glaciers are coming! Frozen wastes will devour us all! The end of our world as we know it draws near!
Big effin deal! So what else is new! Par for the course!
Its been that way for hundreds of years here - and likely that way for at least a few thousand - ever since the alti-thermal 5,000 years ago. It actually is quite mild compared to 12,000 years ago. The long view adds a much calmer perspective.
Ring of fire, plate tectonics, earthquakes, solar flares, planetary alignment, and the other awesome events they speak of can easily strike fear into the hearts of people who have no knowledge of their origins, causes and long history. Priests used to take advantage of eclipses and thunderstorms to scare people into believing in supernatural powers and the priest's ability to assuage those powers or predict their action - if enough valuables were given to the priests to sacrifice to the gods. We will see all sorts of these predictors or saviors for profit come out of the cracks of humanity during the next decade.
P.S. those whose writings contributed to the Bible lived in an area that sees snow extremely rarely. For most people in the middle east - snow is indeed unknown and for primitive cultures there quite likely a fearsome supernatural calamity. The author of the four horsemen forgot one - snow, ice & cold.

Hoosier Gold Bug: I think you have hit on something. 'flight to safety' is no longer into US equity markets. It is 'flight' into US treasuries. That is why the US dollar is going up, but the US equities are going down. I think we underestimated our foreign investors. Real interest rates in the US are high right now -- making US treasuries relatively more attractive.

JTF - Yahoo 12:35 am quote has Nikkei slammed back down to 14789.

Down 1.5% with 25 minutes to go. Asia getting very red. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Frank Mahovlich thrilled to be a senator

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Hockey great Frank Mahovlich says he doesn't plan to
spend any time in the penalty box for being a truant senator.

The Big M was one of five people appointed to the Senate by Prime
Minister Jean Chretien on Thursday.

The hockey legend who starred with both the Toronto Maple Leafs and
the Montreal Canadiens says he plans to trim his public appearances
and scale back some of the old-timer hockey he plays to attend the
upper chamber.

"It's three days a week ... so we're going to give it a try and see what
happens. I think I can manage it very well," he said Friday in an interview
from New York.

Mahovlich was in the Big Apple on Thursday when the prime minister
called to offer him the job. He said he had to keep it to himself for most of
the day until the official announcement was made. He'll be sworn in on
Monday.

"I told him ( Chretien ) this is just great. I'm the first hockey player to be
appointed to the Senate. I'm just honored and thrilled and most of the
players are just thrilled for me. I'm quite happy."

The 60-year-old Mahovlich, who played on six Stanley Cup
championship teams, says people are already calling him Senator
Mahovlich.

"When I went down to breakfast this morning ( Friday ) a couple of the
guys addressed me as a senator. It's quite unique. I just can't wait to go
back to the barber shop to see what they have to say there."

Asked what he can bring to the Senate, Mahovlich said it was too early
to tell what role he could play.

He suggested the low value of the Canadian dollar and how it impacts
on sports teams in Canada could be one area he might champion.

"It's terrible for our hockey teams and sports teams in Canada
competing with the Americans. It's very difficult for us," he said.

"I know there are four other senators with me. They've accomplished
different things, I've accomplished mine through hockey. I think hockey
players can make a statement too."

Mahovlich, a native of Timmins, Ont., joined the Maple Leafs in 1958
and won the Calder Trophy as best rookie that year.

Since retiring from hockey in 1978, Mahovlich has run his own company,
Big M Promotions Ltd..

He was made a member of the Order of Canada in 1994.

July AG $ 5.06
July AU $ 286.20
Sept. S & P $ 10856 -- -370!

17ISO3: I do not trust Yahoo -- as it often locks up. That is why I posted the Nikkei 225 site. You might want to scan the Bloomberg site also -- gets addictive, doesn't it?

Thanks, I did read a repost of that article on the SI thread. I bought most of my Golden Eagle shares at 12 cents. It's a crap shoot, I know. They will be releasing a full report sometime this week. Time will tell. My take is that nobody would dare think they could pull off another Bre-X. In fact, it's interesting that everyone assumes it's a fraud. It's like Bre-X in reverse. That area has historicaly been very rich in gold. If I'm not mistaken, a company called Apex recently found what may be the largest Silver find also, not too far away. It was very considerate of you to post that for me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

G'Nite all! sharefin -- Looks like Ping II is still in control. Hope your foul weather gear is out.

You said:

"Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug ( Liberty/RJ VS Farfel ) ID#434179: I suggest that you direct all your hostilities towards the writers of those anti-gold TV/Radio commercials."

I say:

How sad that you completely missed the point I tried so hard to make in my last post to Fartful. I don't care about "Pro Gold" propaganda or "Anti Gold" propaganda, or "Pro DOW" propaganda or "Anti DOW" prop...

You get the point. ( Well I guess you don't )

The point is, I enjoy analysts with an honest, straightforward, factual based, truth seeking point of view. Pro or anti this or that, all views welcome, as long as they have an honest rationale.

Spin doctors on the other hand, are both Boring, and Boorish, and I have no interest in same, whether they be the "Talking heads" so oft derided here, or the "Cheerleaders" who simply try to talk the markets into being what they want them to be .

Gold ( CMX )
Aug
287.4
288.0
286.3
286.3
-1.0
6/14/98
21:38
287.0
286.5

HighRise

Bob Brinker, a stock market analyst I greatly respect, is becoming much more cautious in his outlook for future DOW gain potential. Listening to his Saturday show, he oft made mention of the fact that the BIG gains in stocks, have ALREADY been made...and that he does not see such gains continuing.

He also reminded the listening audiuence that there have been LONG periods where the DWO went nowhere, the 18 years preceeding this Bull run for example when the DOW went from 800 to 800.

I've been following the Brinkman for years and HE is indeed an analyst I respect, as he look shonestly at BOTh sides...and also has an excellent record of buy / sell signals. VERY excellent. He saw this bull coming in it's infancy, saw it's potential to 8000, and accurately called just about every major correction/resumption to new highs we've had since.

He remains cautiously bullish as the US economic fundamentals havn't changed, but reminds his audience that the market is at historiclly high valuations, cannot sustain it's recent past rate of gain, and that the Bear will indeed come in the future once again.

Unlike SOME folks, Bob see's the beauty and virtue of trying to make honest sense of all the info. and all the history and all the important indicators. Rather than trying to rah rah cheer the market on with no thought to reality.

Good man that Bob...good analyst too.....

The GM vs UAW battle is well worth watching. So far,no progress.
Lots of hard feelings here going way back. All unions & mgt. teams
looking for a clue here as to which way the pendulum is swinging.
GM mgt. can't afford to back down much. Classic scenario.

GO GOLD !

I just scanned through Bloomberg and AFR ( among others ) ..30-day money in Hong Kong between 17-19%, The Aussie Natl Bank is thought to be ready for a 2% rise in short money, Every currency ( except for Hong Kong and Indonesia ) is dropping tonight, multiple Percent drops in nearly every major Asian equity market....

America/Germany MUST do something dramatic to pull the world out of this downhill slide and they need to do it NOW.

I would not be surprised to see a 200 point drop in the DOW today...

Best of luck to you all

Monday June 15, 12:06 am Eastern Time

China editorials hit Japan, US for yen inaction

``Why are Japan and the United States letting the yen slide?'' asked the Financial News. ``Mainly because a falling yen suits the two countries' economic interests now and is beneficial in passing on their domestic economic problems to other countries.''

``But a sharp fall in the dollar would very likely cause an outflow of foreign capital, causing a plunge in U.S. stock and bond markets,'' the commentary said.

``The falling yen has already put immense pressure on the Chinese renminbi currency, which has stayed firm throughout the Southeast Asian financial crisis,'' it said.

``People are worried that a failure by Japan and the United States to take resolute measures stop the yen's excessive slide would be highly likely to trigger financial turmoil on a world scale,'' the commentary said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/china_edit_1.html

A must read!

HighRise

To be politically correct we call them "special interest groups", very definitive.

Cuba wasn't blockaded it was a quarentine action, vietnam was a blah de blah and korea blah de blah and so on.

first might was right, then along came cunning for a consort, then came religion, which recognizes no boundries/borders that might or cunning might claim, then along came money which religions, might and cunning all beckoned with open arms to please cross their borders or enter their etheral realms. A safe haven, where anything and everything might be bought or sold, and when all that was worth buying was bought and sold, money then headed for newer shores. Tears of Rage and Tears of Shame could not bring money back to visit again, only shiny new things, cheaply priced, would succor the whore.

"There is only one way to make God laugh . . . Tell him your plans."

( heard on CSPAN )

When is the last time the CRB index was under 200 ??

http://headlines.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/World/Asian_Economic_Woes/

From where I sit, we should all forget gold and play
pork bellies !! They've had lots of action over the
past two weeks!

My take on Scallion is very similiar to yours. I am not impressed with him. I have heard him interviewed by Art Bell before and also have one of his books. Art seems to be very impressed with him, however. But it's hard to know what Art Bell REALLY thinks about things.

I am inclined to put more faith in Ed Dames and TRV than Scallion's "visions". Dames's predictions of super lethal solar radiation have made me a little uneasy. His track record is much more credible, IMHO.

Who said he ever quit laughing at us?
( : ) ^-^

( Sung to the tune of "Clouds" )

Maples and Eagles and fairy tales
and spinning meisters, constant wails
of great big gains, that never fail
I've looked at Gold that waaaay

But now it just glints in the sun
My Golden coins, they poke some fun
at all the silly buy's we've done
in hopes that Gold would gain

I've looked at Gold, from both sides now
from win and lose, and still somehow
It's Gold's illusion Farfel recalls
He really does not know Gold....aat all

Didn't see the bet, did anyone bet on Japan over/under 15,000 tonight?

Your getting BORING!!

"Getting boring"?? this is your sole daily contribution to the forum? Your sole take on the Gold & Silver markets? To the debates at hand? Ahhh, no one could have articulated it better "Bat"...keep up the good work.....

Replying to--

Date: Mon Jun 15 1998 01:24
dirt ( CRB Index ) ID#215379:
When is the last time the CRB index was under 200 ??

1973-1977, 1986,7 and 1992,3- Pretty much like gold's bottoms, no?

Would that my envy creep like IVY I could never admire you with the respect that you are truly deserving of and I do provide you with this thoughtmy FRIENDyour arms are too short to box with my Gods

Mikebeneath the KINDNESS that is youmushrooms like me learnNAMASTE

If I gave my life for you it would not be enough...AND I AM NOT THAT UGLY...you shall suffer those remarks...Ah Hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Peace and Kindness to you and your's................

I see red, I see red, I see red! Yen 145.8. All furnaces operating
in red zone. Hope my baby has not been gargling and does not
weigh 20 stone.

Regardless of the authenticity or veracity of Scallion et al - they will have the effect of stimulating people to prepare for rough times. That may entail prayer, stocking the pantry, buying generators and guns, and/or BUYING GOLD & SILVER. Maybe they will do goldbugs a favor even though I may not like how they go about it.
On specific non-Y2K threats.
During a magnetic reversal the Earth's magnetic field collapses and re-establishes in the opposite polarity. During this time our "shields" - {the ionosphere} is/are down. If that happens during the next sunspot peak 2 to 4 years from now we will get some unusually high solar and cosmic radiation. It will be nasty indeed! JTF {Tue Jun 02 1998 23:43} has looked into this and thinks we are not due for such a reversal.
We are also overdue for a late nineties major drought in a cycle that correlates well with the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.
JTF, Donald and I have posted urls to this info before.
http://infind.inference.com/infind/infind.exe?query=sunspots&time=7&x=43&y=19
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index21.html
http://msx4.pha.jhu.edu/ssip/Sun/Solar_Lesson2.html
http://www.sunspotcycle.com/

ARGENT & SQUIRREL: Both Scallion and Dames are either lunatics or out and out charlatans. Neither has a track record of predicitng anything with a better than chance accuracy - if that. I remember several years ago hearing Scallion precict that Los Angeles was going to be reduced to rubble by an earthquake in January of that year, and lo and behold, I'm still here. Dames's crackpot stuff about the Jetstream coing down to touch the earth, along with other such scientifically outlandish ideas, is equally preposterous. I suspect Art Bell has them on repeatedly because they scare the bejezus out of his know-nothing listeners. If someone got on and said, "all will be OK", they wouldn't have as much cachet to attract an audience. I think Art Bell is either extremely crafty or extraordinarily credulous. Now if Art put Mike Sheller on, then I'd be interested. Mike is able to hit it on the head every now and again.

See my post late last night. No one took me up on it, tho. It's not too late if you're interested. I'm betting a fifth of B&W Smirnoff.
-EJ

HANG SENG.....RED RED WINE!
NIKKIE........WOMAN IN RED!
KLSE..........BLOODY MONDAY!
STI...........I DON'T LIKE MONDAY!
TSI...........!!

RJ ..
Nobody takes farfel seriously .. He attacks me too.
Who cares .. he doesnt know what he's talking about.
Dont let it bother you .. I dont have time to argue
with him .. AND I have NO CLIENTS AND No visible source
of income.. Relax buddy .. Farfel is for entertainment
value only.
You input is taken seriously .. ignore farfel please.
How was the trip ??

to all ..
My my the old greenback is strong this morning ..
146 plus on yen 1.81 plus on dollar ..
Remember when I said it had crossed up through
its 30 day AMA ?? Probably not..
Strong dollar not good for gold .. starting to look
like prior low..
will go ...
I would guess that fall in plats result from
perceived decline in Japanese demand .. may not be
real at this stage .. but markets are driven by
perceptions more than reality.
Rand at 5.39 this morning .. switched most to dollars
at better than 5.1 .. pleased with that.
Anybody see the De La Hoya fight ? .. He would be
the best Ive ever seen

...of course, I know you mean well. But I will not cease to be non-stop bullish about the value of gold. I firmly believe it is significantly undervalued as it is manipulated and propagandized downward by The Street and its minions. The Street is determined to substitute Bonds as the preferred "flight to safety" over gold. Perfectly understandable. Yet, in an impending stagflation, bonds will be decimated and gold will be the true repository of value.

Joseph Abby Cohen is non-stop bullish about the prospects of the DOW? Has she ever called for a single, significant down move in the last several years? Hardly. Do you see Wall Street begging her to be otherwise? No. Do you see Wall Street railing against the merits of her unyielding linear analysis? No. Do you see Wall Street calling her an idealogue? No. A single minded propagandist? No. An un-American Commmunist? No.

To date, she has the good fortune to be mainstream and right ( given the present de facto verticality of the DOW, the irrational exuberance, and regular Clinton government intervention to support the market ) . The pendulum is stuck in one position. However, if tomorrow she proves to be dramatically wrong, then Wall Street will probably want to hold a public lynching for her. After the Crash, if Abby were to ever issue another positive market forecast, then most likely she would be decried and denounced royally. The Street would probably call her an idiot too stupid to have foreseen the disaster...an obtuse bull idealogue...a New Paradigm propagandist... and any other number of pejoratives. She will be as disparaged as Joseph Granville.

Today, on Wall Street, there is really only one difference between a hero and a bum...between a balanced analyst and an idealogue...

Is the person right or not?

When I am proven right ( and there are many others who share my unyielding, long term perspective on gold ) , then I will be heralded as the "balanced, level headed analyst"...not Joseph Abby Cohen nor any of the other Bull ilk.

The mainstream always determines the proper norms of the society. I am not part of our mainstream ideology...although someday I will be.

When you speak of a truce on this forum, I do not understand your meaning. There is no war. All I see are simply two fellas going absolutely beserk posting paragraph after paragraph of relentless vituperation against "Yours Truly."

If I am truly the idiot they claim I am, then ignore me! True idiots never attract real attention anyway.

Essentially, I do my best ignoring them. Ignoring each other, I am confident we'll live happily ever after again.

Why do I bother them so much? They really wish to destroy me. Am I just a little too persuasive? Do I speak too much Truth.

My non-stop bullish views on gold are as valid as RJ's effectively non-stop bullish views on Plat and Palladium or LGB's non-stop bullish views on silver.

But they do not see the parallels.

Blind men.

But still I get a real kick out of them.

Thanks.

F*

...and yes I get a kick out of you as well.

Everything going alright in S. Africa?

Thanks.

F*

For Oris ..
My friend Bloomer who was expert on aircraft as well
as gold forecasting seems to be lost in action since
given his "personal guarantee" that Im still trying
to collect on.
My views on Mig vs F-16 ..
1. F-16 wins at all air shows
2. F-16 outsells despite high costs because of
performance statistics.
3. F-16 does well in type of warfare involving "nothing
personal" type of fighting .. where nobody gets too
dirty .. except those under attack..
4. In protracted warfare where airstrips are attacked
and support techncians taken out, Migs come into
own. My impression is that they are a much
hardier aircraft built for more traditional and
personal type of fighting.

These are my impressions .. how do you feel about it ??

Farfel ..
All's well in RSA except cold overcast and the Rand's
down the old crapper following the Aussie dollar..
Southern Hemisphere phenomenon .. Longer term .. this
lowers cost of RSA and Aussie mines and makes the
North American mines even LESS competitive ..
Bear that in mind .. but I would not buy a mine or
even a commodity now of ANY variety .. until whatever
it is that is in process clarifies itself and
stabilizes.
It is putsville for me on whatever I can think
of..
But see about an editor .. you could use one ..

The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available at http://www.drd.co.za/

Does anybody know where on the Web can be found a one- or three
year graph of London gold fixing am/pm on a daily basis ?

Curiously this is not available on Kitco and I didn't found it on any
other gold site....

Thanx for kind help.

Want a thrill? Take a look at Globex S&P numbers:
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/markets_eu_1.html

Frankfurt 5542.09 ( -89.25 )
Paris 3980.72 ( -70.14 )
London 5673.0 ( -97.0 )
Amsterdam 1152.31 ( -20.09 )
Dow will follow?

You can find them here at kitco http:www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html
and they go back to 1860

regards

cpo

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/london_gol_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/japan_read_1.html

All markets feeling the yen effect today.. Of course we expect gold and silver and the PGM to be weak, of course. No rumors of Japanese Central Bank buying today. Mining shares should be breaking into new low ground in some cases and testing January lows in most others - that is the expectation isn't it - why should it be any different.

We are in a dollar backed commodity deflation - gold and silver ( and the PGMs ) have insufficent friends to counter the relentless selling of the funds, the central banks and the dollar hungry. Gold will go down, silver will go down faster than the comex stocks, the PGM will go into disuse as economies slow and mining shares - gosh, they are finished.

Do I have the prescribed mind set?????? Could I make any money with it.???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/asia_marke_1.html

indicates renewed borrowing for another short ambush of the POG today.
I hope I'm wrong.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980612/low_raw_su_1.html

http://kitconet.com/gold.live.html

Boy, is that a news flash!!! They ought to sell bonds and buy gold - that would give the equity markets something to think about.

Come on Japanese, do something - fact is you don't want to, you can't, and you wouldn't know how to do anlything effective if you had to - you are hopeless. If the Americans hadn't let most of your war crimals go, paid the bill for your defense, let you copy everything American, opened our trading door while you kept yours locked, we would have skipped the economic miracle bubble piece and not be so surprised to see you where you are - trying to hold on to failed institutions to protect those that have made a killing off the hard work and blind sacrafice of so many of your contry men.


The most imaginative thing the Japanese will do to defend the yen is eat a couple billion yen to show face. Just a bounch of ganster crooks - their government and businesses have been since the turn of the century.

Wise up America, let'em crumble.

Dipsters will certainly have something to play with today. Anybody want to bet we don't end up on the day.???

Sugar is so low-priced that breakfast cereal-manufacturers
make a huge profit by including as much sugar as possible
in the ingredient mix. In the U.S., cereal costs
approximately $4.00 per pound. So much sugar not only
rots the brain, but also rots the teeth. Lots of gold
fillings.

might halt the yen carry trade without an increase in Japanese interest rates. When ever circumstances defy all logic and even common sense,
it usually means dirty politics. If Japan sells her american bonds. how might the United States retaliate?

Horrendous day on Asian markets, specifically in Hong Kong and South Korea. The Nikkei well under the 15,000 level.

European markets down substantially across the board

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

US Dollar up to 146.30 Yen and 181.50 Dmarks. US yield curve is almost absolutely flat from 2 to 10 year with 30 year yields at all time lows.

It's going to take some doing for the US market to hold up in the face of this.

I'm not sure if this has been posted previously.....a good read.

Global Intelligence Update

Red Alert

June 15, 1998

Collapse of the Yen Places China in a Precarious Position

Those of you who have subscribed to STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update

for a while, or who have perused our archives, know that we have been

extremely negative about the Asian economy since 1996. Our predictions

concerning Asia have come true, thus far, save for one. We have argued

that the final Asian domino to fall would be China, and that the collapse

of China's economy would signal the beginning of the second phase of the

Asia saga, as the focus turned from economic disaster to the political

consequences of that disaster. Those consequences would include both

internal and regional political realignments that would redefine both East

and Southeast Asian politics and the global system as well. Thus far,

China has struggled successfully against this fate. Last week, its room

for maneuver narrowed dramatically.

As with most events in the current Asian crisis, China's problem began with

Japan. Japan's problems began when they reported that the Japanese economy

had contracted in the last quarter. Japan's slide into recession was

devastating news for the Japanese government and the permanent bureaucracy

that controls the Bank of Japan. The BOJ had been holding interest rates

at next to nothing. The reason had less to do with stimulating the

Japanese economy than with providing Japan's ailing industries with enough

cheap money to keep going. Low interest rates placed substantial pressure

on the yen, as Japanese corporations unloaded yen in favor of other

currencies. This weakened the yen, which is precisely what the BOJ was

hoping for, since it reduced the cost of Japanese exports, thereby

increasing exports and postponing the day of reckoning. Postponing the day

of reckoning has become the sum total of Japanese economic policy.

The one bit of good news that was supposed to come out of all of this was

that the Japanese economy would grow due to increased exports. Instead it

contracted. There were two reasons for this contraction. First, Japanese

exports into Southeast Asia were slashed due to that region's economic

collapse. Second, the importer of last resort, the United States, is

undergoing an unprecedented economic renaissance in both productivity and

creativity. Japan, which has not been in a position to reinvest in its own

economy due to economic problems going back to 1991, has an aging

industrial plant that simply can't compete with American products,

particularly in the American market. Although the Japanese continue to be

able to compete on price, the vast difference in quality between Japanese

and American products simply isn't there any longer. Moreover, the most

dynamic sectors, such as software and biotech, are simply beyond Japan's

capacity to dominate or even seriously compete in. Thus, its primary

market, the United States, responds to low priced goods which have minimal,

if any, profit margin, while Japan's secondary market, Southeast Asia, is

unable to buy anything compared to what it purchased last year. The

result: Japan is in a depression, dispensing with the circumlocution of

"recession."

With this realization, Japanese and foreigners holding yen frantically sold

them last week, driving the price down to levels that haven't been seen in

seven years. This is not a temporary phenomenon. With interest rates at

virtually zero, a contracting economy, difficulty in profitably penetrating

the U.S. market, and a vanishing ASEAN market, who in their right mind

would invest in Japan? Moreover, there are no obvious solutions. The Bank

of Japan could raise interest rates to attract foreign investors, but

higher interest rates would trigger a wave of bankruptcies among second

tier companies that are barely holding on, in turn triggering a new banking

crisis, and so on. Japan could stimulate the economy by encouraging

domestic consumption, but that would cut the savings rate, destabilizing

the banks once again. So, unless the United States decides to buy yen,

there is little to raise its value. And the U.S. doesn't mind the weak

yen, as it causes massive inflows of money into the United States, thus

helping to maintain U.S. capital formation.

All of this puts China in the cross-hairs. The Chinese yuan and the Hong

Kong dollar are the only major currencies that have not readjusted to the

new Asian reality. It has been the absolute policy of the Chinese

government not to devalue its currencies. But with the yen at 144 to the

dollar, the pressure on the Chinese to devalue has become irresistible.

The ASEAN collapse has already slashed Chinese exports. With the yen's

collapse, what little market share Chinese exports to ASEAN retained is

being destroyed by now cheaper Japanese goods. Moreover, with the Japanese

forced into a price-based export surge into the U.S. market, they are in a

position, along with the ASEAN countries, to place tremendous pressure on

Chinese exports into the world's largest and most dynamic economy.

Indeed, with the yuan unchanged and the yen down, the Japanese will be able

to increase their exports to China itself.

Price had been one of the great advantages that China enjoyed in the global

economy. Maintaining the value of its currencies at pre-collapse levels

has effectively undermined that advantage. Thus the key question: Why have

the Chinese remained so stubborn about maintaining the yuan and HK dollar

at irrationally high levels? Why not devalue? Since an export-based

economy has been a cornerstone of Chinese policy, resisting devaluation

appears to be irrational in the extreme. Since the Chinese are rarely

irrational, it is necessary to look beneath the surface for an answer.

The key, we believe, is the fragility of investment in China, including not

only foreign investment but domestic Chinese investment as well. The focus

here is on Hong Kong, which is the financial interface between China and

the rest of the world. By holding the yuan steady and keeping the HK

dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar, China has limited what it dreads the

most: capital flight. One of the things that shattered ASEAN economies and

which prevents Japan's economy from recovering is the constant flight of

money to foreign economies, and particularly to the United States. China

has already seen some of this. Its strategy has been to stem the tide by

creating confidence in the markets. The key to maintaining confidence is

to maintain the value of the yuan and the HK dollar. In order to maintain

their value, it must maintain confidence. And so on, in an endless cycle.

The cycle, in the end, depends on reality, but the reality has a

psychological component. China has tried to create a reality of a robust

economy immune to the problems faced by the rest of Asia. Part of this

strategy has been political. Clinton's upcoming visit to China is a

crucial link in this process. Clinton, in a speech before the National

Geographic Society this weekend, explained that good relations with China

are critical because, after all, China has maintained a 10 percent growth

rate, on average, for the past 20 years. In other words, China is a

powerful economy that needs to be treated with respect. Apart from the

geopolitical benefits of this viewpoint, Clinton reinforces the psychology

China is trying desperately to maintain.

But the premise of Clinton's assertion is that a high growth rate denotes

power. In fact, there is no necessary correlation between growth and

health. Anyone willing to sell below cost will have a high growth rate,

until he goes bankrupt. That is what happened to Japan. China's high

growth rate does not mean that it has had profitable growth. Japan's

problem, prefacing China's by about 8 years, was that it had magnificent

growth, but the lowest rate of return on capital in the industrial world.

The result was short term growth rates that were astronomical, followed by

economic collapse.

Consider: The rest of Asia has had a massive economic collapse. Yet the

Chinese are claiming that they will be able to achieve 8 percent growth in

1998, just as they had before. That seems to be an impossible feat. Now,

all Chinese economic statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt, but

we believe that China will achieve 8 percent growth in production in 1998.

The reason can be found in an example cited by China's Xinhua News Agency

on May 25. Xinhua reported: "Despite growing demand for nice suit from the

nouveaux riches men, the domestic supply of suit has far outstripped the

market demand, today's China Daily quoted the China National Garment

Association as saying. According to Chen Ling, an association official,

China last year turned out more than 10 billion suits, half of which were

exported, but only 13 million suits were sold in domestic market. As more

and more suits are stockpiled in the warehouses, production costs of many

enterprises are growing rapidly, which has led to the rising price of

suits, she pointed out."

In other words, the Chinese have FIVE BILLION suits sitting in their

warehouses, priced beyond the reach of the Chinese market. They are also

saying that they sold five billion suits last year, without selling more

than a few million in China. We have confirmed this figure from other

sources, but we still find it absolutely astounding. Indeed, we have to

believe that this number is exaggerated. Either way it is bad news for

China. If the number is correct, then it means that the garment industry

has produced itself to oblivion. If the number is lower and there are

only, for example, five million suits in warehouses, it still means that

they are overproducing. It also means that Chinese economic statistics,

like Chinese suits, are not always made of the finest fabric.

It is in this context that we should take the report by the Chinese State

Statistics Bureau last week that production in China rose by about 8

percent over the same period last year, and nearly 1 percent over the

previous month. China is producing and, if need be, it can sell what it

produces. What is not clear is that it can sell what it produces at a

profit, or if it can even break even. In other words, the Chinese are

suffering from the Japanese disease, in which growth has psychological

value at the same time as it undermines economic well being. Thus, the

Chinese are trying to hold up the yuan and Hong Kong dollar to maintain the

illusion that they can escape the Asian disease. Their theory s that, if

enough people believe that China is invulnerable, there will be no capital

flight. If there is no capital flight, eventually there will be an inflow

of capital. If there is an inflow of capital, everyone will forget about

the old suits sitting in warehouses.

The key to this is psychological. The Chinese are desperately trying to

portray themselves as the equals of the United States in dealing with the

crisis. George Bush was in China last week announcing that the Asian

crisis will be short-lived. Clinton is heading there next with the same

message. Both are creating an aura that is absolutely essential to China's

well-being: that China is a vibrant, functioning economy, that can work

with the United States in reviving Asia. The Chinese have indeed played

this brilliantly.

Unfortunately for them, the yen collapsed last week. China is overpriced,

overproducing and over the barrel. The lowered yen has created

overwhelming pressure to devalue. The psychological game cuts both ways.

Having worked to create the illusion of invincibility, devaluation will

reveal that the emperor has no clothes. The Chinese began a campaign last

week placing the blame for the yen's rise on Japan and demanding that the

U.S. do something about it. Thus, China's next ploy will be to portray

devaluation as a defensive measure against American indifference and

Japanese predatory behavior. But it will be a feeble ploy, officially

believed only by those Western banking houses that have led their clients

into disastrous investments in China.

We believe that the Chinese game is about up. The next question, as in

Indonesia, will be political. What will economic contraction mean to

China's domestic and foreign policies? That is an interesting question, to

be posed after this one: What will Japan's economic collapse mean for its

domestic and foreign policies?

___________________________________________________

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates

or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at

http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name,

organization, position, mailing address, phone

number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com

___________________________________________________

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/markets_pr_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/hongkong_d_1.html

to open more than 100 down, and close down more than 300. Individual investors will stay cool, but the kiddies managing the funds are bumming out now on their way into the office, listening to the news on the radio. They will also be hit with US corp. Q2 earnings predictions revised downward.

I don't see a crash. I see a steady sell-off, hundreds of points per week, interrupted by some small rallies, but a general downward trend from here on out. The bear has arrived. Gold? Stocks down, bullion rising slowly.

-EJ

FWIW, Avid thinks a bottom for the Dow may be around 8500. From there, a launch to ??? higher levels. I wonder, a good short entry point????

Thanks for the interesting perspective. I think the Chinese will hold out a very long time before pulling the devaluation rip cord. They'll just keep making unsaleable sluits and warehouses into whict to put them.

Interestingly, not much is said about Taiwan which seem to be keeping its head at least above water. Would the PRC devalue while Taiwan does not. It's all a bit sureal anyway in that the yaun ( or RMB ) is not a fully convertable currency.

EJ - your scenorio for a market decline may be right on the money - except of course for gold stocks, right????

If you are correct about a grinding down market in US equities, your expectation for gold and the PM shares moving in opposite directions is quite believable, at least for a while. The only recent model is late 1987 when the shares tanked while gold continued higher for 2 months. I've studied this, but there are two distinct differences between then and what you suggest is going to happen now. One is that the shares and gold were in a strong uptrend into Sept 1997. The other was the panic nature of the 87 drop which is different from what you suggest will happen this time. My take on this is that gold will simply continue to languish with the shares taking a double hit from both the equity market in general and a weak spot market.

Has anyone ever tried to determine what percentage of world gold market ( paper and physical ) is played by the hedge funds ? I'm guessing without any 'real info' to back it up that they represent a very large percentage of the action today.

Given their ability to affect currency, doesn't it make sense that as long as they are short on gold, it will follow the trend down. I suppose at some point those that want to buy will call their bluff...as we have seen happen on occasion at low price levels.

But margin provides powerful leverage for the funds to offset the purchases and so the march down shall continue.

8500 may be a stopping point for a weak rally, but the negative news will continue to come in.
-EJ

What is that old song "we've only just begun". If US Dow really breaks that is when gold will suddenly go as it will be a sign that the "safe haven" aint so safe. This just as bonds in 1987 began their bull on the crash dramatically and suddenly. The rise in gold will signal a big new bear in bonds. This is why there is a PPT and they will be in there today, yet it seems that the problems are stasrting to become overwhelming as we have expected/

As to Corporate earnings look at "chainsaw" Al Dunlap of Sunbeam as a greedy earnings fudger to be the rule and not the exception once equity declines reach intolerable levels. With y2k and all/ Dow 1300 will be the low in the Summer of 2000.

Dow 1300??? by 2000??? You sure you ain't Puetz? ; )

Worden brothers have been writing about moving averages and standard deviations about the MAs. Their conclusion ( several weeks ago ) was that the Dow and most stocks were about two SDs above the MA. Quite an accomplishment! Their conclusion was something like Dow 8200 ( the 200 DMA ) , with the caveat that markets always overshoot the averages...

OK, that being said, get the darts out, pick some numbers, start throwing darts.... :- ) )

I'll go along eith EJ that we'll see a long grind down with occasional bounces. 8500 may be a one or two day pop. 8000 will be another - 7200 by November at which time if there is some clearing in the Asian malaise we'll see a bottom or a base.

Gold if it falls to 275 it won't fall much further - there will be amove into gold as it is viewed as a safe and stable asset to own which by fall will be appreciating -if only modestly. Gold shares will follow gold step for step.

Silver will go no further down that $4.85 and will be at $6.50 by November. As the world economies stop going down silver will get stronger and stronger, attracting speculative attention that has few other established momentum bulls to chase in late '98 and early '99.

Plat and PD will follow silver.

So we will see. Frankly, your educated guess is as good as mine though perhaps better expressed.

One more thing; where's the safest place in the world to park your money? Certainly not Indonesia. Japan? Low yields on JGBs. U.S. Debt? Well, if the Yen continues to slide, who cares about the interest rate. The currency appreciation/depreciation is quite handsome...

The gain from a 127 Yen to 147 Yen slide is 15.75%, now throw in some meager interest and you have a +20% gain backed by the U.S. Gubament...

The economic collapse that is developing along with y2k problems make this target seem reasonable. Given the extent of commitment to the market this type of decline would be normal. After this is over the Big Corporate boys like Al Dunlap will be put in the docket for an Economic Crimes Trial. The CEO will no longer be the hero but the rogue. This will be good for the average person and positive for society as we get off this selfish greed is good thing. Dont forget alot of good things started in the Depression of the 1930's

that contradicts the underlying current views of equities, bonds, and PMs relative to future value, which are based on wishful thinking. My sense is that to the extent that the players come to see themselves as unwitting participants in speculation, we will see a rapid or gradual adjustment of stock values close to sustainable PE ratios, perhaps 30% or more below the current DOW, over the next six months. Gold stocks will be directly correlated. However, gold physical will not. Gold physical is playing in a different theater, effected most by the fall-out of currency struggles worldwide, now heading into a period of disorder. Not ready to bet on this yet, but that's my take on it now.
-EJ

that's good for the average man as I see this economic decline moving us all closer the the mean.

StradMaster: your 3:05 - Would that I "hit it on the head" as often as IT hits ME on the head!

Liberty: your 01:55 - "Clouds" - that was simply great!

Farfel: None is more bullish on gold longterm than me. In the next century the entire financial structure will be washed away and replaced by a gold standard - a true gold standard. But this will not happen for a long time. There must be weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth first. In the interim, there will be ups, downs, and fluctuations in the gold price. Everyone will be right at some point, and everyone will have a chance to be wrong. It is refreshing to live each day and week and month in the adventure of the monkeyshines of our civilization, while we stand in King Kong's footprint. This is the only moment we've got. And in it, gold goes down as well as up. Either every thought is valid to consider, or none are. I say let us listen to every thought. We can silently reject whatever we wish. All will come true.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/capitol.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

J'burg gold index headed down to 700 area for the fourth time in six months. Will we get another nice bounce??

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^jgai&d=b

a 1500 point limit on the S&P Globex - if so we are almost there.

After being away from Kitco for roughly a month, I now know why I feel so calm and peaceful, so humble and philosophical. Scrolling thru the night and morning has restimulated my worries..what if there's no water during Y2K? No electricity? What if more of our freedoms evaporate as world government schemes abound? Will my gold shares go any lower? CAN my gold shares go any lower? Will there ever be peace in the world? Will there ever be peace at Kitco?
Oh no, the Yen is falling again! Will the markets crash today? Angst.
My cyber therapist is here now. The one in the white jacket. So summery. Have a nice day all. I have to go back in the sensory dep tank. Where's my rubber duckie?

to favorable exchange rates. Japanese politicians are under increasing pressure to support the yen and have announced their intention to do so. The Chinese appear to be waiting for Japan to make their move before making theirs, not wanting to be tagged for starting the next round of competitive currency devaluations. Will this hurt or help the dollar?

From a personal perspective, for the first time in many years I am now experiencing corporations stalling sales due to budget constraints as I'm now trying to close business at the end of Q2. About a third of the 40 or so F500 companies I am working with have budget freezes in place. I try not to extrapolate personal experience this way, so I have asked several friends in the biz if they are seeing the same and they are. This is one reason I expect a fresh round of lowered earnings projections this week. I do not think the lowered earning are related to sales to Asia because many of the companies are not major Asia exporters. I am uncertain of the cause.

-EJ

Each month G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary
market commentary and analysis submitted to it. We have two goals in
mind in establishing the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT for extraordinary
work. Firstly, to formally recognize the generous sharing of the analyst's
considerable knowledge and time in preparing thought-provoking studies
( we are talking many long hours of research, analysis and verbalization
to perfect an insightful report ) . And lastly, to aid the rapidly expanding
golden-eagle readership to zero in on the most outstanding posts in its
many webpages ( now more than 700 ) .

Following are the SPOTLIGHT AWARDS for January, February March,
April and May:
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Their critically-acclaimed and insightful reports may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/awards/spotlight.html

"Chainsaw" Al Dunlop just got fired. CNBC

I'm more sanguine than you at this time. Dow to 8500 and then bounce.

The A&E cable network ran a 2 hour special, THE RICH IN AMERICA, last night. Most interesting from a contrarian perspecive. Wealth worshop typically explodes at or near market tops.

We all know how badly crude oil has been smashed with many producers in dire straights. But here in Palm Beach, gasoline prices at the pump have not gone down at all. If this is typical of the national pattern, the refiners must be making out like bandits. In this industry, at least, deflation at the producer level does not necessarily translate into deflation at the consumer level.

Caveat: past performance is no guarantee of future success.

With stop losses, gold shares are now getting to be a good risk.

Now that everyone is talking crash--we are probably at a good buying point.

Carpe diem.

Give me a minute and I'll think of some more platitudes.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1007.htm

Russell 2000 fell below its 200 day moving average Friday. Looks like more trouble ahead for small comapnies.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?
period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

( join the above together )

All I was saying is that Big Al is the tip of the ice berg of CEO greed and dishonesty due to their STOCK OPTIONS. After this is over stock options for corporate managers should be eliminated or taxed so heavily as to make them uneconomical or have the vesting period only begin after 15 years.

I dont disagree necessarily with your 8500 bounce. All I am predicting is 1300 by July 2000. There will be alot of bounces along the way.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/snapshot.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

of wealth from the middle to upper income classes for the past 20 years. In the future, European-style progressive taxation will be used to create jobs for unemployed Americans. All this much later. But the set-up starts now.

The rich, by the way, sense this, thus the current scramble to position oneself publically as a generous benefactor -- donating $1B to the UN, for example.

When do the publically rich move their money to hard assets? They must be careful not to make investment moves that violate of rules among the community of the rich, moves that do not support the prime investment interests of the group. Buying gold is a clear violation. But some rich folks don't give a sh*t what the community thinks. Got my eyes peeled for one of these guys to make a move.
-EJ

Not looking good but still well above its lows, probably due to high A$$ gold price.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html

I posted the June Issue yesterday. It is at the usual spot on the dial:-
http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/comment.html
Apologies to those who were expecting a personal e-mail notification: there were problems yesterday at my ISP and it was impossible to send e-mails.
Max

Safe way to play is to wait for the turnaround.

More risky but potentially more profitable is to try to pick the bottom, using stops. Prepare to be stopped out a coupla times unless you are good.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=2y

The trip was fantastic. Still have my sea legs and the room seems to tilt to and fro, but the effect is slowly wearing off. Killed 'em at the seven card stud table. The dealers and pit bosses were either Aussie or Romanian. I LIKE those Romanians..... Smooth, almost translucent skin; eyes like chips of blue ice; the oddest mixture of Romanian and British accents that had me hanging on the most mundane of sentences just to hear words pronounced that way. The wine was extraordinary, the full moon cast a silvery spear at our ship every night. Fine Cuban cigars with 30 year old brandy on the deck at 2 AM on a sultry overnight on the Sea of Cortez on a brand new ship with nary a scratch or bit-o-rust to be seen.

The mind is clear, the soul is rested.

This does not mean I have become a carpet. I will not be trod upon.

Learned some info on gold that is modestly bullish.

Later

Any excuse is a good excuse, especially when it fits in with the current mode of 'thinking'... IMHO, Asia is not the problem with profits. The high tax rate is. Asia is an excuse. The cause is the current junta...

Nice day today, BBML. Going to enjoy it.......

Platinum:

Ouch

Blair warns world economy faces major risks

CARDIFF, June 15 ( Reuters ) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday opened a summit of EU leaders by telling them the world economy faced its greatest risks in almost two decades.

A British spokesman quoted Blair as saying: "Our economies will not emerge from this turmoil without being affected by it and we have to decide how we intend to react."

Sorry for the comments last night. Upon reflection what was said was as ....the pot calling the kettle black. I shall refrain from unkind comments. I hope.

Tom

What I'm looking for here in gold is an entropy bottom, where the price falls severely for 3-6 days and then reverses. Straight moving prices are a sign of exhaustion. We're now in the fifth straight day of prices moving lower. I look for a reversal either today or tomorrow and then another ( successful assault ) on $300.

Watch closely now.

The Preacher

RJ, what is your position and outlook currently? Looks to me like it will get hammered with just about every other commodity.

FWIW I expect a reversal today.Happy trading

Any possibility of a bear trap?

As I traveled Southern Ontario Sunday and early this morning ( Still working for a living ) the golf courses are full .Are any Canadians working? No wonder the C$ is down the tubes Away to find a way to export Golf courses.

Thanks for your help; unfortunately no graph there, just listing
of quotes....where could I find a graph...?

You could call it a bear trap.
I try always to maintain a medium- to long-term focus. Gold bottomed in January at 277.50 and on the monthly chart put in an outside month, a reversal pattern.
After this there were two months of consolidation and then a breakout in April.
A severe pullback has come off this breakout; a pullback that has shaken the faith of gold bulls.
I think the pullback is close to ending in an entropy ( exhaustive ) bottom. Gold should now resume the uptrend begun in January.

Happy days are almost here again.

The Preacher

Poorboys ( fellow golfer? ) 6pak, Steve-in Toronto, any other Kitco Bro
in the general area, what are the chances
of your being in Toronto on a date at the very end of July, as we'll
be coming in for a brief visit, on our way to NY. Would like meeting
y'all- contact Reify@sitcom.co.il Have Mooney's tel # to meet, maybe
we could all meet together?

"Depression 1929 - Caused by USofA & International Banking interests"
Congressman Louis McFadden had complained, as reported in "The New York Times", July 04, 1930,

"Commodity prices are being reduced to 1913 levels. Wages are being reduced by the labor surplus of four ( 4 ) million unemployed. The Morgan control of the Federal Reserve System is exercised through control of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the mediocre representation and acquiescense of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington."

As the depression deepened, the TRUST'S lock on the American economy strengthened, but no finger was pointed at the parties who were controlling the system.

On May 23, 1933, McFadden introduced House Resolution No. 158, Articles of Impeachment against the Secretary Of The Treasury, two Assistant Secretaries Of The Treasury, the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, and Officers and Directors Of The Federal Reserve Banks for their guilt and collusion in causing the Great Depression.

"I charge them with having unlawfully taken over 80 BILLION DOLLARS from the United States Government in the year 1928, the said unlawful taking consisting of the unlawful recreation of claims against the United States Treasury to the extent of over 80 BILLION DOLLARS in the year 1928, and in each year subsequent, and by having robbed the United States Government and the people of the United States by their theft and sale of the GOLD RESERVE of the United States"

The Resolution never reached the floor. A Whispering campaign that McFadden was insane swept Washington, and in the next Congressional elections, he was overwhelmingly defeated by thousands of dollars poured into his home district of Canton Pennsylvania.

FWIW Take Care

Thanx, it looks good, "we will watch this together, yes" Charlie

I went to the Silicon Investor page this weekend and read the thread for the past three days concerning KRY.
The most interesting thing I saw was that at 12:19PM on Thursday, when the KRY price was still nearly C$4.00, someone named Marcos, who I gathered was posting from Venezuela, announced on SI that the decision was in and was not favorable to KRY. A few minutes later he even told the number of judges who voted on each side.
Still, there was no widespread belief on the thread. One guy was buying at C$3.80 thinking KRY was now good value.
It was quite a study in investor psychology.

In New York a few weeks ago, I was standing at the KRY booth at the NY Gold Show and started talking to a guy who was evidently a large shareholder.
After he said a few things, I asked him: "So you think the ruling will be favorable to KRY."
He said he didn't think so, which confused me. Then he got in my face and started shouting: "I KNOW IT WILL!!! I KNOW IT WILL!!!"

At that point, well, I had to leave. That poor guy. I bet he just lost a bundle.

I'm anxiously waiting to hear Bob Bishop's reaction, other than that he thinks the judges were bribed. He said he would seriously consider retiring and giving subscribers a refund check if the ruling went against KRY. He should come out with something this week.

What a life!

The Preacher


PS -- On Toronto, ABX is now positive for the day and PDG is only down C$.10, on the high of the day, after being down C$.60 earlier today.

Thanks for the interesting post, and Chinese stats. They didn't sell any 5 billion suits. Who bought 5 billion nice men's suits from China last year? Our new suits were made in Romania. That makes a few apiece for each of you. That makes their other numbers somewhat suspect, too, eh? So much for countries that depend on total information control to keep their grip on their people. Such a shame to see Bush and Clinton singing their song. History will place them with Neville Chamberlain, in the fool's corner.

FWIW Middle America is going on vacation.With the ongoing
turnmoil in the market,they want to have a peaceful one.
So they will sell and sell they will.
We might get one more rally and bandage up this old
bull and tranquilize the gold just to have them keep the faith.
In my humble opinion it is going to be ugly out there.
Gold on June 15 has a reversal day and I covered this morning and
gone long.This could be a nice and sharp rally with the appropiate
stops until the June 23-25 time frame.This is a bearrally and nothing
more.The low is going to be next month.

informing him on air display of force, withdraw's mitilary envoy to NATO.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_112000/112701.stm

warrants more realistic assessment than emotional goldbug logic to decipher it's dismal behaviour since considerable time now.
I have very limited insight compared to the esteemed fraternity at this site and I would like some comments on the following thoughts.

1- Perhaps Gold supply is plentiful as never before in history, I recall reading somewhere that there has been more gold mined in this century than ever before in human history of this planet.

2- Much anticipated boost to POG did not materialize through Euro backing
as we had envisioned, the gold backing for euro is negligible, Moreover the backing pertain to only reserves and I dont think that there is any backing of gold ratio to Euro Money Supply.

3- Logic that gold cannot go below production price has also been void as more Mines are being closed without pushing up bullion prices.

4- Advances in technology have made production cheaper in a consistent survival mode of cost cutting to falling prices.

5- So many people have got their fingers burnt in gold investing from nearly 20 years that it is now considered an extremely foolish investment by the big brokerages, fund managers, market maker's, their media lackey's and so called Main stream market experts in every financial newspaper, TV, newsletter etc..

6- Dire economic situation of gold's major clientele ( i.e Asians ) is keeping prices low, Many at kitco has been cheering heartily at Asian market turmoil and regional currency downfall without a thought that it directly hurts gold prices.

7- The fact remains that majority of the world ( irrespective of our evaluation of their wisdom ) have considerably more faith in stability and appreciation of US dollar than in Gold.

8- The Markets are in slow meltdown around the world for some time now and still money is not flowing into the traditional hedge i.e. Gold

9- The insider's actions i.e. Mining Industry's hedging actvities and their own evaluation of their future production say's more about their faith in this area than anything else.

10- Strong US Dollar is eroding every other form of wealth.

Let's be real, if there is a gold conspiracy then it seems to have synonymous sentiment from majority of global investors ( large and small )

Go Gold Go..

You are predicting that the low in gold will be in July. I would just like to mention that ON june 25 ( sat/neptune square ) is a turning point with a record of being correct.My thought is that the low should come in later this week give or take a week.The next price target below ( 285.00/286.00 ) is 275.00/276.00 ) IMHO

Reify, sorry, I must pass on your offer to meet in t.o. Thank you very much, for your kind consideration.
Take Care

This is a mixed bag of news from the Yahoo server. But no matter how grim the report of the financial markets at least these folks aren't starving like the North Koreans. Yet. IMHO

http://quote.yahoo.com/?u

http://quote.yahoo.com/m3?u

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/markets_eu_1.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/06/15/international_news/stkskorea_1.html

despite CRB collapse under 209, oil down, stocks down around the world, dollar up. Too bad the screen's here aren't updating again.

U.S. monetary policy about right, economists say

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. monetary policy is about right and should remain on hold for the next six months, a survey of business economists said Monday, although a substantial minority wanted tighter policy.

In a quarterly survey of 225 economists, the National Association of Business Economists ( NABE ) found 76 percent of panelists "expect and prefer" the Federal Reserve to keep key interest rates steady for the time being.

Still, it added, "a very substantial share expect and prefer that monetary policy be tightened". Some 22 percent of economists said monetary policy was "too stimulative."

The survey was conducted in the last two weeks of May.

"Clearly, the business economics profession is split on this important topic," the survey concluded.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-SURVEY.html

Right on many counts! They all add up. I believe it is a cyclical thing and there is not much that can be done about a bad cycle except let it run its course. Stocks have been going up in the U.S. Everyone has been making money and until this changes, the public will not turn its attention to gold. Asians seem to be holding on, selling gold. Europeans, who have a historical love for gold, have not done well with the commodity and are getting on the stockmarket train if not in Europe, in the U.S. I have no idea when the trend will reverse, but it iwll and probably for reasons that we have no imagined.

I don't cover and go long when I expect a bottom in gold.
I stated today is a reversal that means we see a top June
23-25 time frame.

cyclist: Glad to hear that you and I are on the same wavelength. You understand these cycles better than I. We are continuing a period of world-wide deflation, so there will be no strong bullish trend in gold for some time.

What really worries me is that the rising US dollar will have deterimental effects on other parts of the world that are still stable.

I think more and more that the Communist Chinese leadership is hanging on to a growth dream that they cannot achieve. Boom and bust is their history, and the bust is about to hit, with associated turmoil. After the dust settles this time -- within a year or so -- I would guess that China will start to recover. It is possible that China will recover much faster than Japan.

Talks resume in strikes that have idled 60,000 GM workers

DETROIT ( AP ) -- Negotiations resumed today at two General Motors Corp. parts plants in an effort to end strikes there and avoid a virtual shutdown of the automaker's vast North American assembly operations

Close to 12,000 Canadian auto industry workers could be laid off by mid-week because of the two strikes, said Buzz Hargrove, head of the Canadian Auto Workers.

General Motors Canada laid off 1,800 workers at an Oshawa plant a week ago and another 2,550 were to be let go today. About 600 will be off the job at GM's component plant in St. Catharines shortly, Hargrove said.

He said layoffs would hit 6,000 to 7,000 workers in Oshawa, St. Catharines and Ste-Therese, just north of Montreal.

GM Canada spokesman Greg Gibson said as of Sunday, no more layoffs were planned, but he wouldn't speculate about what might happen later in the week.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.GM-Strike.html

FWIW I only use astropoints if it strengthen or weakens the
cyclical scenario,I believe looking through my work that
July 30 is a bottom for gold.the silver bottom is in until the
end of August and Platinum making a bottom second third week of July.
I use the stops in all my trades and be out even when everything
looks great.I'm not wedded to any system but use it in conjunctio
with what the market says ,not what I tell the market.

RJ: You have said several times you do not expect POG to fall below $280. But Glenn, Disney, Selby, and several others here project that gold will drop considerably below $280. Would be interested in your latest take on where and when the bottom might be.

RJ: You have said several times you do not expect POG to fall below $280. But Glenn, Disney, Selby, and several others here project that gold will drop considerably below $280. Would be interested in your latest take on where and when the bottom might be.

Abitibi-Consolidated workers strike at 11 mills

MONTREAL ( Reuters ) - Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. , the western world's largest newsprint maker, said Monday it was shutting down 11 Canadian mills after 5,000 unionized workers went on strike.

"The market probably needed this to improve the supply and demand balance," Rowland added.

Overall, Abitibi has 18 mills, 14 in Canada, three in the United States, and the U.K. plant. It produces 4.4 million metric tons of newsprint annually.

The company was formed in February 1997 by the merger of Abitibi-Price and Stone-Consolidated Inc. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Abitibi shares fell 45 Canadian cents Monday to C$18.65.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/CANADA-ABITIBI.html

Farfel: I am perpeutually Bullish gold ( in spirit ) , just the way Mike Sheller is. But -- I don't tell everyone to buy gold non stop -- neither does MS. The gold markets have a mind of their own, and currently they are bearish -- the reason this is not evident is that most of us have not lived through a full fledged deflationary period such as this -- so we do not know how gold behaves.

I hope that you realize that RJ's input is much more useful to this site than my posts or your posts -- you must be honest about that. You do not have the resources that RJ has. And neither do I.

I will not support you if you do not compromise in this matter. Think about it. If your advice was followed by everyone on this site, everyone would be 100% invested in gold and gold stocks, and regretting every minute of it. The real world is much more complex than the world you see.

Reify Sounds Great Toronto Kitco Bash ---Will be in touch Away for some paperwork.

Morning. My concern is that a rising US$ is going to price US products out of many markets with the resulting problems at home and more friction about trade imbalances with all US trading partners. As for foreign economies collapsing I can't see it happening in countries that are sound--or as sound as they can get. A rising US$ only helps industries selling into the US it doesn't hurt unless they are buying as well.

as a financial asset. The US has proven that you can build an effective economic machine with good faith, credit, and paper. Why should everybody sit back and watch? Even the Swiss are preparing to take this route. There are just too many other vehicles with more liquidity, convenience, and less volatility availabile today for GOLD to play the major monetary role.
It would take a major breakdown of all gov't and currency systems for gold to reimmerge as the monetary asset rather than its current secondary role. Which IMO will remain such for some time.
More important IMO will be growing dissatisfaction with one world currency and the politicians influence in that enviorment. The bankers are even fearful of that. That is why I think every effort will be made to make the euro fly. Its much easier to start out with a low gold ratio to test the water. If it needs to be increased to achieve currency status in the next few years, they will. All would consider it a wonderful surprise announcement. I think the euro bankers are out to win and have no intention of second tier for long. It will take some time to rearrange conversions and interest rates but a time line is in place to build confidence fast.
In this enviorment all PM values will advance which is causing some serious money to position. Its not gloom that will bring the metals back, but success in a mutually competitive growing world economy. The success of the euro will contribute to this as now evidenced by GB preparing to join.

FWIW ABX making a triangle on the 5mins chart.Stop at 16 3/4

UN leader pushes for international court as "bulwark against evil"

ROME ( AP ) -- UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called on the international community today to create a "bulwark against evil" by establishing a permanent world criminal court.

In opening the five-week UN conference to set up the tribunal, Annan appealed for a "court strong and independent enough to carry out its task" of bringing war criminals and perpetrators of crimes against humanity to justice.

"People all over the world want to know that humanity can strike back --

"We live in a world where most of the conflict is civil and most of the victims are civilian," Axworthy said in notes to a speech to the conference.

"The acts of war have become even more senseless, and too often these acts of atrocity go unpunished."
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.UN-International-Court.html

CNBC
London "they are talking of a global market meltdown"

Interesting....Gold is holding it's own right now @ 287 +/- ....I think, the last time the pigeon came in.

30 yr bond 5.618% and falling

HighRise

http://www.globeandmail.ca/docs/news/19980615/ROBFront/rbull.html

I can't refute anything you say. It's taken me a long time to realize it but gold is dead. For me this is very difficult to admit as I never thought foreign governments would lie down and let the dollar become king. Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power and it's beginning to look like a long reign for the almighty dollar.
I had thought there was a possibility both gold and dollar could go up together buy no longer believe it. LOW gold backing of the Euro killed that idea IMHO.

I wonder if they have any Gold
Slovokia, New Zealand, & Tawain
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The only black in a sea of red.

HighRise

Come on look at the bright side, let's get the cheering section going...where are the cheer leaders?

Gold ( CMX )
Aug
287.4
288.2
285.7
287.5
+0.2
6/15/98
9:05


Silver ( CMX )
Jul
512.0
512.0
505.0
510.5
+0.2
6/15/98
9:04

I can't tell how old this is but no one cares about that...it's UP!

Not bad in a climet of Global Deflation and in the face of a Market Meltdown.

Where are people going to put their money?
The Stock Market?
Bonds, how much lower can they go?
Utilities?
Transports?
The Yen?
The Rubble?
The Mark?
The Dollar?...for a while maybe?
Windows 98 ....no way!
The Mattress?

Dow -109
Nasdaq -12.25
XAU is a concern ... still falling, remember they are stocks

HighRise

My lovely brother,

You inquired in regard to our mutual friend B...oo...er.

There is a rumor circulating in intellegence community
that this person volunteed to clean airstrip, so F-..6
could land safely.... You also heard about misterious
earthquake...I had a couple of 1 gallon drinks with
some Colonel from the USAF, and he confirmed that
at that very moment when this earthquake has been recorded,
there was a collusion between some cleaning guy on the
airstrip and C-130. Experts speculate that this guy did not
see C-130 coming for landing...Anyway, my drinking buddy
informed me that C-130 was decommissioned due to the heavy
damage Cleaning guy got hit in the head, like usual...

His head still looks good to doctors, but all he can say now
is a mysterious phrase "...Russia is broke...". Doctors
are planning some surgery to fix it...

Brother, did you read

"The adventures of the bravesoldier Shveik" by Hasek?...

Miro, did you read it?

Mike :
Welcome back big guy! Good to see you again.

All. Lets all ignore F* & RJ maybe they will get bored or come to thier senses and be a little less mean.

You endless apologists for farfel. I am amazed that you somehow feel that he deserves your support and encouragement. No one else on this forum has ever taken it upon himself to attack and discourage other voices endlessly. Big Otis, you claim to have been lurking since January. Does this mean you respect and approve of Farfel's campaign of endless posts harrassing and insulting Haggis? What was Haggis' crime? He was a funny, informed gold professional who had the audacity to tell us the truth about Pegasus. Farfel didn't make a bad "call" on Pegasus, it was a campaign as mean and sniping as that he has declared on R.J.

For example:

( @HAGGARD HAGGIS...ARE YOU STILL MAD AT PEGASUS? ) ID#28585:

Haggard, are still pissed at Pegasus for digging that big hole in your back yard down there in good ol'

Aussiestralia?

Listen, Haggard, your guess is as good as mine. Whether or not Pego survives is being debated in a bank

boardroom somewhere...even as we trade insults.

If they do survive, it will be because the banks accept some equity in lieu of a portion of the loan obligations. In

doing so, they will immediately impart value to the equity, currently perceived as worthless.

The banks' final decision is something only God can discern...neither you nor I.

P.S.... How does an Aussie say thanks after a good meal?

He uses the toilet instead of his underwear.

The pattern is constant. Gentlemanly demeanor and nasty, snide anti-Scot and anti-Australian "jokes". All the while, he was dead wrong on Pegasus, just as he was dead wrong on gold in April, on the stock market bottom, etc.

And what is the point of this?

Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 00:03

farfel ( KITCO...is it a glee club for gold? ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

A certain poster recently disparaged this forum as evolving into nothing more than a glee club for gold. The central

thesis...it is imperative to hear the opposing point of view, i.e., the derogatory perspective of gold's value, in order

to achieve balance and proper perspective.

Personally, I do not believe that Kitco's strong bias in favor of gold ( or silver ) is a a bad thing. Why? Because

today, we live in a world in which gold is disparaged routinely in virtually all mainistream media...or it is ignored

completely.

What is so wrong about the tendentious nature of this forum then? Why is it perfectly acceptable for a media outlet

such as CNBC to blast its frequent, total, chauvinistic support of the supremacy of equities and bonds ( and the

irrelevance of gold in a modern economy ) ...yet somehow various Kitcoites feel it is imperative for this forum to

present a fair balance between goldbugs and their pro-equities/anti-gold poster antagonists...and the very same

Kitcoites become oh-so indignant if they perceive the argumentation is balancing too far in favor of gold??

What is wrong with having another strong mouthpiece for gold ( such as the Kitco Forum ) in this

"paper-pyramid-economy-is-OK-by-me" world? God only knows the World Gold Council is doing a miserable

job of propagandizing gold's merits. So, what crime exists in allowing a preponderance of goldbug intellectuals to

present their views over a non-mainstream internet site such as this and offer some token resistance to the mountain

of anti-gold nonsense out there?

Balance...schmalance.

I welcome anti-gold exponents to post on this forum...I beg them to do so. However, be warned...there are those

here ( myself included ) who will dispute your anti-gold logic until it crumbles into the nonsensical gibberish it really

is. If that should happen and you run away, "crying to mama," then do not blame us!! Furthermore, let no other

Kitcoites scold those of us who "take no prisoners" in such argumentation either.

The pro-gold/anti-gold schism is not a mere dialectic...it is nothing less than a cultural war. Despite the ostensible

appearance of pandemic prosperity, this country is at war with itself. Anyone who would deny this is viewing the

world through blinders.

There are many in this world and on this forum who have built their houses upon foundations of gold and

silver...who clothe their families out of the fabrics of gold and silver...who feed their families from plates of gold and

silver...so...

...when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of

history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off

your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor.

Thanks.

F*

Is this really the way you believe discourse on this site should be conducted? Please, before you start again, read back over time. Take a good, hard look at what you're supporting.

Haggis has stopped posting, and we're likely to lose RJ too. As you like to say "bad driving out the good". Only I see it quite differently.

Promey

To Midas and All: My understanding is that the USG to my knowledge has never sold any of its gold reserves ( officially ) , and is on record of having the largest reserve of gold of any country. I would appreciate comments as to whether or not this is correct and what is the reason that they do not sell any of their gold? Thank you.

Japan's demanding workplace driving more workers to suicide

TOKYO ( AP ) -- In the 1980s, the notoriously hardworking Japanese coined a term to describe workers who die suddenly after putting in extremely long hours. The word is karoshi, or death from overwork.

Japan has a new word for the '90s -- karojisatsu, suicides from overwork.

"The myth that Japanese management is benevolent is full of lies."

The firm had been slashing the workforce for years, and Shimonaka had no choice but to work alone on its rudder design project. He often complained of chest pains, and told his wife the overwork was killing him.

One Monday in March 1993, he left for work as usual. His drowned body was found on a nearby beach two days later.

"I no longer have the strength to go on. I am really sorry," he said in his suicide note.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.ap.html

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/061598/world8_10385.html

Thank you for your great 12:30 post

Teacher, employee shot at high school in Richmond, Va.

RICHMOND, Va. ( AP ) -- A teacher and a school employee were shot and wounded today in a high school hallway. Two suspects were taken into custody.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.School-Shooting.html

It don't matter much but I ain't going nowhere.

Dollar continues dubious path to setting new trading lows

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Canadian dollar continued to make history this morning, slipping to a new intra-day trading low of 67.90 cents US.

"There's a very strong possibility ... we'll make fresh new lows." "If you were to load a plane up with all the currencies in the world and throw them at people, they would be picking up U.S. dollars and throwing any other currencies away."

But it's unlikely the Bank of Canada will step in to boost interest rates to attract investors to the dollar, so long as inflation -- a key concern of the central bank -- remains low.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Dollar-Woes.html

Further to my 12:31 posting... I worded my point rather naively; more specifically: If the USG is so confident in its money printing press, why is it so tenaciously holding onto its gold reserves?????

Would greatly appreciate any comments in this regard.

Selby,

The Bulls and Bears article in the globe is interesting. I'm not sure that I buy the standard contrarian view that when people are bullish that it means the opposite will occur. I think that is likely true at the top and bottom but meaningless in the middle of a run.

I do think that Bulls surveyed for that article are simply saying, 'gold looks bullish in comparison to the rest of the mess that we are about to enter'.

Hope so but I'm still waiting for that financial or geopolitical event that was cause the swing upward.

Any chance we are at permanent bottom here. In 1986, my model year for what's occuring now, sliver/gold/platinum had bottomed in this part of June for a huge 1 year move.

Only copper lagged, but by one month. I think it has already washed out as copper/base metals common stocks trading at record low valuations.

HB

Promy: A fine defense of reason. Don't be a Prometheus "bound" by the nonsense of others. Just keep the bushel off your own light! ( or was it "fire?"

jlh: Got a kwestion - you say transiting Saturn square Neptune has a "record of being correct" re gold price. Please don't send me to the ephemeris, I can't spare the time for yet one more research point. Just give me a few examples. I never did give much credence to planets transiting aspecting themselves. Against a relevant horoscope, yes. But not transit to transit for such specifics as the gold price. Maybe you can show me something I've missed ( shouldn't be difficult with ME ) Will scroll back later. Thanks!

I don't disagree with you. The problem is to figure out what will be a sufficiently important event to have gold go up. The Asian crisis didn't or hasn't; the Clinton capers didn't or haven't; Iraq, Pakistan and India didn't; Japan's problems haven't; Bosinia hasn't; even the 97th ( ? ) birthday of the Queen of England's mother hasn't. I have given up on the usual indicators as we now think of them. My view is that when the man in the street starts to buy 1-10 ozs- it is past time to buy. The task we/I have is to be ahead of the man in the street and not too far ahead --not an easy task as I see it.

A Presbyterian, Catholic and a Morman were visiting. The Presbyterian said, I have four boys, one more and I will have enough for a basketball team. The Catholic said, I have ten boys, one more and I will have enough for a football team. The Morman said, I have 17 wives, one more and I will have enough for a golf course.

Do you really remember? Let farfel tell you in his own, inimicable way:

Date: Tue Apr 14 1998 14:49

farfel ( @LGB...let's go over this syllogism very slowly so... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

...that even you can understand.

In my last discussion with Mr. RJ, he announced that gold was definitely headed South and it would see 280

before it ever saw 310 ( he was unmitigatedly wrong and that is why we no longer hear from him...it's called

embarrassment ) ...

At the same time, he forecast that Palladium would surpass gold in value... ( he was right...but for the wrong

reasons...not because of weakness in gold but simply because of unusual strength in palladium ) ....

Ergo, as per my previous post addressed to you, it is not particularly impressive that RJ made the call, declaring

"Palladium will be worth more than gold this year."

After all, when someone is announcing that a particular metal ( Gold ) is headed for the toilet, then that same

person could forecast that virtually any commodity is headed higher than gold ( and, ultimately, that person would

be right, correct? ) .

Now, do you understand, my "gold-always-viewed-as-a-half-empty-glass" friend?

Thanks.

F*

Yes, like Haggis a few months before, RJ told the truth as he saw it. In both cases the experts were absolutely correct. This is, I guess, what you choose to drive out of Kitco.

Tell me if I am off on this...

Looks to me like the PPT is-indirectly-SHOVELING money into the S&P to prop up the market ( $PREM.X is 1350+ ) and the effect is so far limited to keeping the DOW from dropping more than 120 points...? Ususally that high a PREM would have blasted the DOW up nicely long before this. Hmmmm...

yessir, only one thing worse than looking thru a keyhole, and that is getting screwed thru one, which always happens those see the world thru a keyhole or have in-curable tunnle vision.

and plays a round every day!!!!!

FWIW July crude is getting hammered,it is not far
from it support 10.5.If it breaks that support things will
get really nasty for the banks.Their energy loan
portfolio will be in shambles.

The General who prepares for war does well to gather all possible intelligence about those against whom he may do battle. Further, it is reasonable to maintain that the methods of waging war, while following the von Clausewitz outline are now executed by other means. No longer is it necessary to lay siege to the Capitol, when seizing the capital is a readily available option. With this in mind, let us turn our attention to 'China's Positioning'.

( 1 ) for men must either be caressed or else annihilated; they will revenge themselves for small injuries, but cannot do so for great ones; the injury therefore that we do to a man must be such that we need not fear his vengeance." ["The Prince", Niccolo Machiavelli, chp III.] Modern 'blitzkreig' is waged in the forex markets where an adversary's fortress can be laid waste with the speed of light.

( 2 ) A. Gary Shilling ( Forbes ) : His facts are correct; but all is judged by Wall Street money standards, which is business as usual in the Western capitalist world. Concerns about see-through buildings, shaky banks and lower GDP are not the primary issues of the Joint-Chiefs-of-Staff planning battle strategy in the war-room.
Zhu Rongji is not a Wall Street money-standard product. He, and the other leaders now in power, have been at war all their lives. 'Hard Times' in this 'war-room' are very much different from hard times as experienced on the Street. This is a truth lost to the West.

( 3 ) All government pronouncements, from EVERY government, seek to present particular information in a particular way to achieve a particular result. Those of us who have money at risk need a heightened awareness of the skill with which the propagandists wage war. We are asked to believe that the yen is the currency under attack, while the reality is the devastation of American business ( the major Global Princes have done their deals, but it is not they who are responsible for US growth and vibrancy. This is Gettysburg, and we are the guys in gray.

The us printing is successful so why rock the boat with any talk of gold sales. It may be percieved by some that there is a gold backing to the dollar due to heavy US ownership of gold. If the dollar tanks maybe there will be talk of gold standard, particularly if the Euro shows strength. I don't think the US citizen wants our currency to be 2nd ever again.

IMVHO gold is putting in a pretty good showing considering all equity markets, commodities, and especially oil are tanking. But how can gold buck this ever more obvious world wide deflation?

I have the utmost respect for RJ and the other knowledgable short-term traders on this forum. Even though I remain an investor not a trader, my confidence in RJ was such that I opened an account with him ( after he explained his long term perspective ) . How have you demonstrated your confidence other than rhetoric? Don't think I have to say more on that subject.

There are other entities on this site who take advantage of the falling price of gold to attack and ridicule anyone who has invested as I have. This elicits angry responses from me because my presence here has already defined me as one whose portfolio is dropping; i.e., a loser. I don't need to be reminded of how smart those entities are and how dumb I have been so far. But how do I know if these entities are telling the truth about their investments or if they derive some sick pleasure from their ridicule and attacks? One expert called an ABSOLUTE gold bottom at around $310 then came back in the last few days to imply that "he told us so and he's selling every rally." If I missed his post explaining that he was stopped out, I certainly apologize.

The trading information on this forum is fantastic, and someday maybe I'll have time to use it.

...I understand you perfectly.

However, my philosophy boils down to this one fundamental belief...namely, I do not believe it is necessarily possible to call the exact timing of a dramatic trend shift...not through charts, astrology, fundamentals, or whatever.

For example, when the market had its notable market crash in the late Sixties ( thanks to Cornfeld's IOS ) , it arrived as a complete left-field event. The fundamental and technical analysts ( and I believe, the astrologists ) were asleep at the wheel on that notable market move.

Ergo, I remain perpetually bullish on gold/gold stocks and happy to tell everyone to keep buying them in perpetuity. Within reason. I myself hold cash equivalent to about 50% of my net worth. So, when you say that people following my advice would be 100% fully invested in gold, I am sorry but I have never advocated such an irrationally exuberant stance.

My perpetual gold bullishness stems from my belief that when the Nineties trend shift arrives in its gale force, it will be sudden, dramatic, and extremely severe. In percentage terms, it will be significant enough ( within a one week to one month period ) to more than make up for several years of missing various market ups and downs.

My background is economics with specialization in macro analysis. One of my more notable recommendations for graduate school came from this century's most renowned neo-Keynesian Nobel Prize winner in Economics. I ( like several other economists ) do not believe we are going into a period of pure deflation. Rather, I maintain we are into the first stage of a global stagflation. That analysis is notably different than the one presented by the majority of economists out there. Yet, it is equally valid as a compelling case can be made for such stagflation. Moreover, given that the analysis just might be valid, it portends a completely different direction and velocity for gold and bonds than deflationists ( excluding JP, of course ) might predict.

My sub-specialty is psychology as it was my effective minor at college.

So, that is my primary contribution to this forum: economic analysis and market psychological analysis. I acknowledge these analyses are often not mainstream. My economic analysis is especially disturbing to bonds bulls; yet I am not a lone wolf crying in the wilderness. Although stagflationists form the minority of contemporary American economic forecasters, there is an extremely good chance we are correct. So, I believe it is imperative to hear this minority voice.

My assessments of market psychology are no less valid than those posted by any other Kitcoites. Yet, I hear no other persistent demands for "cease and desist!" directed to other posters.

Does RJ know more than me about the intricacies and minutiae of gold trade? Of course he does. As a trader, I have no doubt he has a much better grasp of the micro-issues of the gold market.

But my expertise is in macro-economics...and most traders I know have a difficult time seeing the forest for the trees. The skills in exercising trades versus analyzing the global economy are certainly different, don't you think? Yet, the state of the global economy determines the ultimate long-term trend in those gold trades.

In any case, that is my position and I will continue to post. You may not like it and LGB, RJ, DISNEY, SELBY, etc. may not like it, but until Bart Kitner says that HE does not like it, then I will continue to post my perspective on this gold market. After absenting myself for a week from Kitco, it was my wife who exhorted me to stand up for what I believe again. When LGB writes about bullies and the need to stand up to them, hey, I agree fully. That is why I am now standing up to the real schoolyard bullies on this forum...the self-appointed arbiters of who should be allowed to post and who shouldn't. In my view, we are all entitled.

The great thing about the Internet is that nothing compels anybody to read any material posted. However, judging by various comments posted on this forum, it is obvious that many posters find my analyses to have some compelling intellectual merit. If my detractors wish to undermine this merit, then address my points...stop addressing my personality ad nauseum.

Essentially, if you don't like what farfel says, don't read his posts!

It's really that simple.

Thanks.

F*

FWIW We will be staying in a bearmarket in gold until we
cross the 304 from the July30 low.It would be bullish for
gold if it maintains 278 pricelevel instead the one I see is
256.Gold has a cycle high November 10,same for Platinum.
A multiyear bottom is due the second week of February 1999.
And I think from that point you will see a more sustainable
rally.So my suggestion is to stay liquid and play the rallies
or go short with highly liquid stock ( ABX ) ,and buy physical.

Monday June 15, 11:21 am Eastern Time

Gold choppy, weak, swings in $284-$286.50 range

LONDON, June 15 ( Reuters ) - Gold headed for a European close on Monday barely changed from Friday's close in New York but having swung sharply in both ways in the interim, buffeted by weakness in the yen and other Asian currencies.

Gold fixed at $285.85 an ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $286.10, having seen a sharp sell-off at the start of U.S. trade fade out.

Spot metal was last at $285.10/285.60, just down on Friday's New York close of $285.60/$286.10, having visited the top and bottom of a $284.00 to $286.50 range.

``The strength of the dollar remains the overpowering influence on the metals markets with funds selling short more or less across the board,'' said Rhona O'Connell, precious metals analyst with T.Hoare & Co.

``Gold is still under the weather and likely to remain that way for the time being, with dollar strength compounded now by the end of the Indian wedding season, which always sees a slowdown in physical demand,'' she said in a report.

``Fund sales were consistent and aggressive last week with the professionals getting gold by the scruff of the neck on any crack in sentiment,'' she added.

Yen bears were on the move during European trade, chasing the Japanese currency down more than one percent against the dollar and the mark amid mounting concern about Japan's economic outlook and its impact on other Asian markets.

Japanese officials tried to halt the slide by warning that the Group of Seven nations could co-ordinate efforts to halt a slump which has seen the yen fall nearly 20 percent against the dollar so far in 1998 and 6.5 percent in June to date.

But with no sign that the U.S. is willing to join in such a defence, traders pushed the yen to its weakest in nearly eight years and targeted further losses.

The yen fell as far as 146.55 per dollar, its weakest since August 1990.

Yen strength is a key factor in determining sentiment towards other regional currencies and, in turn, consumers' appetite for buying gold as an investment, safe-haven currency hedge or for adornment.

While the weaker yen inevitably blights local demand as yen gold prices rise, Tokyo traders said there was as yet no evidence of sustained gold sales by Japanese investors.

Japanese bullion house Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, said retail gold prices were 1,374 yen per gram on Monday, compared with the year's high of 1,378 yen, marked in April.

``Investors were not in a haste to sell gold as current price levels were not so attractive for them,'' one Tokyo trader said.

``So far, benefits from a weak yen have been offset by losses in spot market prices of gold,'' he added.

Silver reacted sluggishly to moves in gold to be last little changed through European trade.

an hour on this extraordinary red-number day. Amazingly, gold didn't go down with the ship.

but something keeps pushing it back up. Gee, I wonder what could be doing that!
- c

...we had a friendly, kidding banter going back and forth owing to differences in opinion about Pegasus.

Ultimately, Haggis proved to be correct ( it turns out he worked for Pegasus although in our initial interactions, he never revealed that fact ) .

I posted to Haggis that his analysis of the Pegasus situation was correct and applauded his astute perception. Creditors in this difficult gold market are impatient and unwilling to work things out with debtors.

I understand Haggis is busy working in the field now. I certainly did not drive him off this forum...nor did I attempt to do so. Nobody could ever drive Haggis off this forum. I , myself, get a real kick out of his fierce Scottish personality.

Thanks.

F*

My uneducated guess is that it's the Plunge Protection Team ( PPT ) formerly known as the Rise Assurance Team ( RAT ) .

Since we last discussed Double Eagle premiums in these colums in 1996,much has happened to this popular,high volume sector of numismatics.First,Gold bullion prices collapsed over $100 per ounce.

Then $20 Saints and Libertys joined in a similar,steep price decline.But then,in September 1997,with Gold bullion still months ahesd of its final January 1998 low,the prices for "Saints" and "Lib" reversed sharply to the upside,parting company with bullion and causing their collector premiums over thier Gold value to DOUBLE in just months

Bid price for MS60 Saints put in a bottom at $400.00 during September 1997 more than 3 months before bullion bottomed at $278.00 in January 1998.The bid price then rallied to $460.00 per coin,where we find it today ( June 5 ) as this article is being completed

This sharp price increase in MS60 Saints-in the face of a continuing decline in the underlying Gold price-caused thier premium percentage over melt to explode to a decade high 58% today.

I thought you guys needed good news for GOLD the rest of the artical is even better,but typing is a pain

Your posts are greatly appreciated and please continue to post.

Sorry if I misread your support of Big Otis' posts. Your clarification is appreciated.

Your record speaks for itself. Anyone here can go back and read and decide for themselves what you are about. Except of course for the posts of April 16 that were too obscene to remain part of the record.

BBML

...least of all, RJ. He is here to stay.

As a gold investor, I am basically indifferent to the fortunes of platinum and palladium. However, my bias is in favor of price appreciation since it can only favor gold and silver appreciation.

Unfortunately, the deflationary hypothesis of Wall Street mainstream analysts does not bode well for PM's in general since, in pure deflations, all commodities are expected to fall in value. That's what the deflationists are constantly telling us.

I argue against the mainstream deflationary hypothesis propounded, knowing full well that often mainstream perceptions become, at least in the short to medium term, self-fulfilling prophecies.

Thanks.

F*

On a side note, here's the news from clone for today:

Six Freemen Sent to Prison Hospital
BILLINGS, Mont. -- Six anti-government Montana Freemen were ordered transferred to a federal prison hospital today after the judge in their trial was notified they once again were refusing food and water. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-Freemen-Trial.htmlLott: China

Dictating Clinton Trip 1:46 p.m. EDT
WASHINGTON -- President Clinton is allowing Beijing to dictate the terms of his visit to China later this month, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott asserted today.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/w/AP-US-China.html

Fewer People Interested in Politics 1:41 p.m. EDT
WASHINGTON -- Voters' dwindling interest in politics and President Clinton's shrinking coattails are dampening Democrats' chances of retaking control of the House of Representatives, according to a poll released today.

Missile Parts Found On Maltese Ship 12:47 p.m. EDT
GELIBOLU, Turkey -- Authorities found seven mobile missile launch pads Monday aboard a cargo ship stopped on suspicion of carrying missile parts to rival Cyprus, Turkey's Anatolia news agency said. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Turkey-Cyprus-Missiles.html

Court Upholds Gun Law Conviction 11:15 a.m. EDT
WASHINGTON -- People can be found guilty of ``willfully'' selling guns without a license even if there's no proof they knew about the licensing requirement, the Supreme Court ruled today as it upheld a New York man's federal conviction.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/w/AP-Court-Gun-Law.html

U.N. Considers World Criminal Court 10:10 a.m. EDT
ROME -- U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan called on the international community today to create a ``bulwark against evil'' by establishing a permanent world criminal court. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-UN-International-Court.html

Editor's Death Sparks Investigation 9:45 a.m. EDT
MOSCOW -- President Boris Yeltsin today urged a full inquiry into the slaying of an opposition journalist in the Russian republic of Kalmykia, saying regional authorities ``cannot be fully trusted.''
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Russia-Slain-Journalist.html

Hope these URL's work for you!
- c

I have seen risk/reward comparisons made for cash, bonds, and stocks. I have never seen this done with precious metals. I know that over time cash, with no risk, looses because of inflation. Stocks, with lots of risk, average out to steady, significant gains over time. Bonds seem to barley keep ahead of inflation over time. How do precious metals do in the long run? Are they good for anything other than short term speculation and as a hedge against general economic catastrophe?

Quite frankly...In my simplistic view, the only event that will trigger gold's steady movement upward is the downfall of the almighty US dollar and that doesn't look to be very near. It is the world's safe haven today.

Maybe that event will be the result of a number of others...

1 ) A slow but steady drop in equities or alternatively a big stinking 1500 point drop over 2-3 days.

2 ) Lower Interest rates and some bond defaults ( just to keep folks out of the bond market )

3 ) Return to growth mode in Asia

4 ) An act of god

Can't a ( usual ) lurker like me respect both the long and short term analysts here, yet be offended by attacks on my intelligence for being a goldbug?

I agree but the problem remains --what will cause gold to go up and the US$ down. I don't know.

I sense the mood here today is upbeat. Given the state of affairs on wall street and I am guessing that gold has not gone anywhere ( bart ) , leads me to conclude that we have our own group of dipsters. Looking acoss the board gold stocks are aproaching thier lows. My hunch is that we all know gold isn't going away, so why not pickup some RANGY at 75 a pop or maybe some VGZ for a couple of dimes. Let em go lower I can't wait to pick up some NEM for under 20. Happy hunting or should I say bottom fishing.

Bullion held up well today considering, but gold stocks getting pounded again. No trough yet. Still waiting for a dramtic selling climax in both bullion and the gold stocks.

FWIW sold ABX as it is part of the S&P,XAU is getting wobbly .Happy with my bank leaps.

Farfel:
Due to Saturn's move in Taurus April 69,I was told in March '69 by a
friend of mine to sell my equities.I refused to take his suggestion
serious and suffered the consequences.Conceptional thinking has its
place even if it is farfetched,that makes this forum profitable and rich.

I mentioned June 9 and before ,Saturn moved into Taurus again.
"Our senses can grasp nothing that is extreme; to much truth stuns us"
Pascal

http://www.canoe.ca/TopStories/jun15_queenmom.html

With the DOW plunging again, Asia is gonna be one ugly place tonight.
No end in sight. IMO Bullion is still the safest place to be......
REMEMBER THE IDIOTS IN SOUTH KOREA, they liquidated their Gold to try and save their asses, and look where it got them.
I said it then and im saying it now, don't make the same mistake............

It is pretty clear to me where the PPT stacked their chips today. All DOW stocks down with the exception of CATERPILLER. Cat's up 1.5%. I wonder who needs all the earth movers in a recessionary environment.

I think that 1300 Premium on the S&P 500 is on the *September* contract, NOT June, and is not too outrageous considering prsent volatility and that there are 3 months to go. Crude under $12, multi-year low; for you contrarians, SLB may be worth a nibble. US Dollar action today smells like last week's fish; methinks we are at an intermediate term high. Dow could bounce back to 8950 after retesting last week's low tomorrow. Would be looking to buy SSRIF or DROOY somewhere near $2.00/share.

DOWN 2%
DOWN 65 PTS. IN LAST 10 MIN

How's that second leg up the @$$ feel! Last time I looked airhead's call of 8650 last Friday doesn't look too bad! Dow DOWN 194 to well BELOW 8650! I accept your apology! Better hurry, MYR, you only got 10 more minutes too average down! LOFLOL

Interesting that the market is tanking when JP is on vaction. He may still have the last laugh, although I doubt it. I suspect we will see strong G7 action soon to stablize global amrkets and prevent the Asian depression from spreading.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 15

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,016,872 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 85,937,795 - 687,138 troy ounces
Copper 75,295 - 874 short tons
*****************************************************************
Fox-Man

Present

US Long bonds 5.6% and dropping. %-0
US yield curve flat to inverting.
$US strengthening.
Yen 145 and weakening. %-0
Asian currencies and markets in strong downward trending.
World markets falling.
Interest rates up in Britian, Canada, RSA and elsewhere.
Oil down 42% from Fall 1997.
Gold ( 286-7 ) and Silver ( 5.10-20 ) steady in recent low range. ;- )
US Equities sliding third session ( dwn 9.4% from 1998 high ) .

US 5 major bank mergers since April 1998.
Major derivatives losses recently suggested by int'l firms.

----------
Interpretation

1 ) $US gaining strength as the safe haven currency of choice.
2 ) Money flowing to the USA ( bonds ) as safe haven.
3 ) Financial structures crumbling in Asia. Rot spreading westward as of Japan's capitulation in allowing free fall of the Yen.
4 ) US Equities markets beginning to factor in world wide conditions. ***
5 ) Shut downs in asian economies begin to affect corporate earnings ( MOT, INTEL, MSFT, oils ) .

------

Act I - May97 through Jan98: Secondary Asian Economies trashed

Intermission - Feb98 through Apr98: Consolidation of regional failure

Act II - May98 through Present: Primary Asian Economies fail

---------
Furture Imperfect???

A ) Continued flight to US instruments ( $US & Bonds ) .
B ) Various explosions in the derivatives markets.
C ) Rush to liquidate available contracts to cover losses.
D ) Derivatives markets begin to crumble in covering crisis.
E ) Gold begins to climb as the $US remains strong or strengthens.
F ) ??!!

------

This is not a healthy situation. Its not about the USA being a great and wonderful engine of economic progress. It is about the rest of the world becoming an economic quicksand trap.

*** Markets lag information and take time to incorporate data into price actions ( lag of minimum about 60 days ) . This information also moves through price actions long after the real effects of the situation have been incorporated into the fundimentals of the business ( up to 4 or 5 years ) .

Considering this tendency to 'make me pay attention' and then 'I can't forget' we can look at the time it has taken for 'topics' to become part of the Street patter and see what delay period we are experiencing for that type of topic in its effect on the market. We have seen 6 to 9 months into heavy duty Asian disruptions but only now are seeing this come to fruition in Japan. Considering this I surmise a 6 to 9 month lag before present Japan news comes to roost on Wall St. A very long period wave, but inevitable and destructive. We are building a crest while much of the world is digging a grave. There will be no upward rebalancing for them as the systems that support that rebalancing will be disintegrated.

Whipsaw into failure; then Y2K begins to destroy the valor of the might ones.

Has Bart thrown in the towel ?

from The Sydney Morning Herald:
Tuesday, June 16, 1998

CHINA

Promise on yuan is under pressure

By DAVID LAGUE, Herald Correspondent in Beijing

China has accused Japan and the United States of selfishness in allowing the
yen to slide - a signal that Beijing may consider devaluing the yuan if Tokyo
and Washington fail to support the Japanese currency.

China's leading State-owned financial newspapers blasted the world's two
biggest economies yesterday for taking advantage of the yen's slide at the
expense of China and the rest of Asia.

Beijing has repeatedly promised it would avoid devaluing the yuan at a time
when a drop in the value of the Chinese currency could spark a disastrous
wave of competitive devaluations through Asia, but the Chinese Government
now seems to be losing patience with Japan and the US as the yen continues its
free fall.

In a front-page commentary, the Financial News said the yen's slump allowed
Japan and the US to pass on their domestic economic shortcomings to other
countries.

It said Washington was reluctant to lower interest rates and intervene in
currency markets to support the yen because it could lead to capital flight from
what some economists believed was a "bubble economy" in the US.

The Japanese Government also was unwilling to act because a weaker
currency was a boost for Japan's exports and corporate profitability.

However, the paper warned that the plunging Japanese currency could
destabilise the world economy.

"The yen's fall has hurt other countries' exports to Japan and is very likely to
cause another currency crisis in South-East Asia," the paper said.

"It has also put tremendous pressure on the yuan, which China has promised
not to devalue during the financial crisis.

"There are fears that if Japan and the US don't jointly take immediate measures
to stop the yen's excessive slide, there is a danger of world-wide economic
turmoil."

The Financial Morning Post said in a commentary that Japan was failing in its
duty as the world's second-ranked economic power. "The benefits that the
yen's fall brings to Japan is at the expense of pain for others," the paper said.

"The decline of the yen intensifies pressure on China to safeguard East Asia's
financial and economic stability."

China's central bank governor, Mr Dai Xianglong, complained last week that
the declining yen was having a "very negative" impact on the mainland's trade,
capital inflow and economic reforms.

This was widely seen as a warning that there were limits to the pain Beijing
would endure in maintaining the value of its currency.

Leading regional commentators, including Singapore's elder statesman, Mr Lee
Kuan Yew, have warned that the mainland would be forced to allow the yuan
to fall if the yen remained weak for an extended period.

The mainland's exports, thought to be crucial to the country's economic health
while it undergoes wrenching reforms to State-owned industry, are already
beginning to suffer from the region's economic turmoil.

China's exports last month fell 1.5 per cent, the first decline in about two years,
according to official statistics.

Despite the nervousness about the yuan, some analysts disagree that there are
pressing economic reasons for China to devalue. Other commentators doubt
that Beijing would risk the diplomatic backlash of breaking its repeated
promises to maintain the value of its currency, particularly with President Bill
Clinton due to begin a highly sensitive visit to the mainland later this month.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/16/world/index.html

Bart posted this over on K2 last Friday. It looks like some changes are in the offing for us here at K1 as well. That might account for why he's given up on the quotes.

HenryD

=====================================================================

Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 23:00
Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) ( Good News & Bad News ( Bad news first ) ) ID#259284: Bad News Dept: This site ( K2 as we know it ) will be shutting down in one week.

Good News: A new and improved ( in my opinion ) K2 is now open for your enjoyment for the purpose of discussion of precious metals for investors.Your calls for registration have been answered. You'll notice that you have to register to post and that there's a one-week delay before your account is activated. The delay isn't because we're doing background checks for sociopathic or anti-social behaviour, but to discourage anyone from making a habit of getting shown the door.

All that to say if you want to be posting in a week from now get yourself registered today at http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/goldch2/display_shortch2.cgi.

Click on the "add a comment" icon and follow the instructions from there. If you already have a password from K1 you can use it for K2 as well. Choose a handle you like because requests for name changes don't take a high priority.

Remember that the site is for gold and precious metals related exchanges. I highly recommend using ICQ ( http://www.icq.com ) for on-line-off-topic discussions. Many K1 users have discovered it and find it to be a great compliment to our existing format.

Other Changes Dept:

We're creating a whole new look & feel to our quote page, chart pages and all other pages. Quotes will be noticably more reliable and accurate. Were getting started with the design and content phase this coming week. Your suggestions are most welcome right now. Every idea thrown at us will be considered, even the really dumb ones. If you've already thought about what we should be doing to improve our website please share it with us at newlook@kitco.com

If I remember well, gold turned up in March 93 on no specific news. The market was dull in the $325 range and the stuff was $75 higher 6 months after. Do we need a reason ?

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 15
-- TOTALS
Gold 1,016,872 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 85,937,795 - 687,138 troy ounces
Copper 75,295 - 874 short tons

J.P. MOrgan economist Jester Koll sees the Nikkei index crashing 25% to 12,000 by year end. "Things are just falling apart!"--Andrew Shipley with Scroders Japan.

TICK -820! New lows 275! BUT VOLUME STILL BELOW 6,000,000 shares--a VERY BEARISH SIGN THAT THERE IS MUCH MUCH MORE SELLING LEFT TO COME! THE plunge has now begun in earnest! US Bond now ready to take the plunge in yied BELOW FED SICOUNT RATE--A SURE SIGN OF COMING RECESSION/DEPRESSION IN US! Nikkei futures down another 475 points for tonight's opening in Tokyo! If 14,000 cracks and Yen falls below 150, CHINA WILL DEVLAUE AND HK will be forced to decouple! DO NOT BUY THIS DIPS! KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY!

I think it is clear that we are in a period of Global Deflation not seen since the Great Depression, yet no analyst even mentions the possibility. Look at oil. 11.50 a barrel! Gold 286 an ounce! There CRB index makes regular lows. Currencies are collapsing across the world, not just the yen. The Canadian and Australian currencies are under severe pressure.


We are about to witness history. We are on the verge of a stock market collapse only seen once in a lifetime. Every possible signal that could could warn of a top has, and yet the market place is still complacent, which is a signal in of itself. When this thing falls apart, no one will be able to say they weren't warned. The writing is on the wall. If you choose to ignore it be prepared to face the consequences.

When the chinese devalue their currency, a 1000 point down day will be VERY likely.

Goldencheesehead, Thanks for the market updates and commentary.

Bob Buchan the CEO of Kinross has a good sense of humour. I caught an interview of him on Investors-on-line on Sat. The host asked Buchan about their hedging policy & also expressed interest in the fact that Kinross had hired the former ABX treasurer who had set up their very successful hedging program. Buchan said "with the POG going to 0 we're going to need all the help that we can get".

For any BGO/AZS shareholders out there: When asked about their plans for Refugio, Buchan replied that they have been in discussions with BGO/AZS &
will be making some decisions shortly.
Just my impression, but I would'nt be surprised if they shut it down. They need 380 POG to break even.

Whatever happens, I'm sure that proper attention has been given to secure derivatives. I'm sure that the banks have plenty of liquidity. I'm sure insurance companies will be there to cover any expected losses. I'm sure y2k will be resolved just in the nick of time. I'm sure the world will finally attain eternal peace! AND I'm sure precious metals will subsequently only possess mystical value. I do hope everyone will forgive my pessimism over the past few months. I do hope thay will still allow me to take part in all the cool parties and celebrations that will no doubt ensue! Finally, we have achieved the correction that will allow the DOW to continue its great march into the heavens! Time to sell all gold holdings and spend, spend, spend! Go into debt, live above our means. No war, no pain - just smiles and joy forevermore! The DOW lives!! Praise ye the - wait, I don't believe in that.
Got milk?
Got alchohol, extra rolling paper?
Got gold?
Got food, water?
Got deadbolt doors, fortified walls, barred windows, extra ammo?
Got sex?
Got law?
Got cash?
Got unbrainwashed friends?
- c

Tanks G-d, I got milk. But how does one find unbrainwashed friends?

June 1998 issue has the headline, "STORM WARNING: THE ASIAN FINANCIAL MELTDOWN IS HEADING TOWARD AMERICA!"

"If China and Jaapan come unglued, you're looking at something that will dwarf the depression of the 1930's!"--Doug Casey

"I have never read of, or seen such a total economic breakdown and massive destruction of wealth as has occurred, against all expectations, in Asia in the last six months!"--Marc Faber, THE GLOOM, BOOM, AND DOOM REPORT

If you want to buy in after it stops going down and after it starts going up I think you would be better off if you knew the reason to buy-- as or before it happened.

I have made it clear that I am out of the market and only into
golds. So far, on this down leg the market has done better than
the golds.

As far as your DOW predictions are concerned, although correct
in overall trend, are often inaccurate on the specific numbers.
Any idiot can see that we are in a down trend, but few can predict
daily moves - YOU certainly can not.

You may as well shut up and leave the predicting to those who
have a better feel of the market.

but metal inventories, especilally copper on the LME have been falling over the past months, Seems to go in the face of the deflation theories?
Could it be that China and Japan are embarking on a public infrastructure campaign?
Scroll down to bottom chart.
http://www.metalprices.com

It was involuntary manslaughter your honor honest

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980615/sunshine_m_1.html

...the world cannot transmute all its currencies into US dollars and deposit its aggregate net worth into US financial markets.

It would be ruinous for those economies...and ultimately destructive to the American economy. The net end result would be staggering inflation in America...NOT deflation. Every foreigner that purchases a US dollar or US dollar investment has the same purchasing rights as American dollar holders. As such, we already have a gross surplus of US dollars in the world. Ultimately, all those dollars will end up chasing a fixed supply of goods and services.

Of course, the American government could always deny foreigners the rights to use their US dollars for purchases of goods in America. They can erect political and legal barriers precluding foreigners from buying goods and services in America. Of course, in doing so, they would be slashing their own throats as that type of maneuvre would be the nail in the coffin of the extant American dominated world economy.

As I have said before, today's negative economic events look like deflation...smell like deflation...feel like deflation...but once competitive devaluations and/or competitive interest rate hikes get underway ( as surely they will ) , then what we will have is either STAGFLATION or HYPERINFLATION.

So, protect yourself.

GOLD ( and SILVER ) WILL SOAR!

Thanks.

F*

read, the UN wants to suspend our constitution thru treaties, and bulwark
means lock and load and hit the deck.

Supreme court would do if US enforced UN international laws against citizen contrary to constitution?

I enjoy reading your posts Sheller, welcome back.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980615/V000277-061598-idx.html

That much is made of the market declining 200 Dow points, but it's just another day when the Dow is up 100 - 150 points on a day? Tolerance for loss is far lower than the intoxication of winning too much in a day. Rarely is thought given to upside limits, but the loss of a few dollars... now that is truly unacceptable. The stuff of markets, fear and avarice. What's the old saw? Sell in May and go away...

Let's not proclaim the end of the world as we know it... just yet. After all, the Klintoc regime has to build 'profiles' of children who may become 'gun murderers' in school. Ahhh, the myriad uses of computers to track us all, with nary a word said to the quarry. A mark to be placed upon said 'child', unbeknownst to all but those in the 'know', perhaps for life? Now that's scary...................

activities that are prohibited under constitution, by prosecuting them under UN authority, simply by shipping your asse to world court???????

Nothing.

On "profiles of children who may become murderers". In 1944 the FBI came to my grade school and took the fingerprints of all us kids. Said they needed them to identify the bodies if the school was bombed. True story.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

this is a real hummer

Baskin Robbins was turning there "free Ice cream on your birthday" birthday list to selective service.

Thanks. See ya later.

Selby, good for you.

Can one of you guys give me the URL for finding overseas equities futures prices??? Thanks.

a slight movement caught in his periphial vision saved his bacon more than one time.

Now that we have computers to track and sort data as well as scan in images such as fingerprints, photos, DNA info, etc., privacy is long gone.

It sounds like a noble cause to seek out potentially dangerous personalities, but history says much about the futility and danger of such operations. Privacy is the first thing to go, then truth, and so went the Salem witch hunt....

The following image is not an advertisement, but simply an illustration of the level of absurdity we have reached.

My thoughts are, exactly nothing, and that international mail is real slow.

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_06/980614.202805.goldfevr@.htm>http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_06/980614.202805.goldfevr@.htm

The "Nothing.", was a response to your 17:12 question.

The "Nothing.", was a response to your 17:12 question. BBL.

....Whatever! Apparently AG and Rubin and over 40% of investment ADVISORS DON'T SEE WE'RE IN A DOWNTREND, and THE ONLY REASON YOU PRETEND YOU KNOW IS THAT YOU'RE CONNECTED TO KITCO. For that at least I give you credit for at least one sane brain cell!

But as far as your obvious lack of knowledge, integrity and competency to judge my, or anyone else's comments on this forum, which I, and others have graced long before you came onto the scene, I might add, I remain LOFLOL! ( If you doubt it, go back to last September/October and see what I was posting already back then about the coming global debacle! If you dare!

As far as shutting up is concerned, anybody with two legs up his @$$, LIKE YOU, ought be taking your own advice instead of giving it!

You started this pissin' contest and if you desire, you can stop it. Otherwise, you can expect more of the same! My advice to you is to speak softly in the first person about your own ideas, if you have any, and let those more competent than yourself hand out any criticism in the second person.

only but a thin glove over the right of might.

When that goes, and your loss of privacy has already gone you better keep
it locked and cocked,

Lincoln/Seward offered up a $20.00 piece of gold to any sherrif arresting anyone voicing a contrary opinion to civil war, I would like to know how many was issued

Please do not be abusive. Name calling and all that is not necessary. Keep up the good posts!

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980615/brimstone__1.html

Someone osted a price for Canadian wheat at $225 a ton some time back. Could you please come back with some details? My usual supplier wants $660 a ton and I need about a ton.
Gold only down a few cents in the face of a selloff, thats good news,right? An ounce of gold will buy more oil, dow stocks, etc. just not more dollars-so far.
I enjoy reading your comments F*. They give us money every year here in Alaska ( $1297 last year/person ) . Why can't everybody in the country get some, an awnser to stagflation? They create money out of thin air now, and give it to the wealthy, if it's given to everybody it would be spent, not invested in the dow etc. and get the pot bubbleling.

Wheat-wheat-wheat kuka-tu-ga-gora

WOW! Guys and Gals, time to mellow out just a tad!

The dialogue between you and Myr had deteriorated even lower than Fartful and RJ. Both of you are better than that!

Congratulations Vronsky you did a good job on these charts. They can be seen at Http://www.golden-eagle.com/intra-day.html. Drop off the en on Golden.

Gene Inger Daily Briefing has had subscribers 50% cash since ~September and here lately moved to 35% stock allocation. His daily S&P500 futures trades are mostly profitable and his longs and shorts many times are huge winners. He thinks gold is a boring investment, and believes the CB sales will just keep happening, keeping a lid on rallies, and no support on downdrops.

ps.I wonder how brazen some of these posts would be if made face-to-face?

Clinton's largest known campaign contributor was Loral Corp., a defense and arms contractor. In return, Clinton allowed Loral to illegally transfer satellite technology the Chinese desperately needed. China provided the cash. I hasten to add, these deals helped move Loral from a multi-million dollar company, to a multi-billion dollar conglomerate. None of this could have taken place, without the direct help of the Clinton administration, and the U. S. Commerce Department, headed at the time by the late Ron Brown.

Brown set up Loral's Chinese contacts. He arranged personal meetings in China for Loral CEO Bernard Schwartz, with China's top military and political leaders. This was right after Schwartz contributed $100,000 in soft money to Clinton.

The Justice Department was running a criminal investigation on Loral. They suspected Loral had broken U.S. security laws by selling classified, top-secret technology to China. Clinton personally squelched the criminal investigation.

Because of all this, Loral received contracts from the Chinese, to supply them with critical missile technology. Loral made billions on its China deals. They continued to give huge financing to Clinton. In essence, China gave Loral the money ( albeit indirectly ) to help finance Clinton's campaign. ( China also used many other ways to give money to Clinton. ) Lo and behold, Clinton paid back his debt. He gave America's most formidable enemy the technology to destroy the U.S. And sure enough, that enemy now has 75% of its ICBM's aimed at the United States.

There is a name for this. It's called treason. China considers the U.S. its number one enemy. As a result of payoffs, bribes and campaign contributions to Bill Clinton, China has missile capacity that will soon rival the U.S. and Russia's. What's worse, the U.S. is dismantling her missile capacity, actually destroying missiles; while at the same time, China is using top-secret U.S. technology to develop and build up her missile arsenal.

( Besides Pakistan ) Missile technology Clinton gave to China is also filtering to North Korea and Iran. Iraq and Lybia will be next. And don't forget Japan. The Japanese were militarily neutral. Now they have very quietly bugun designing and building ICBM's to carry nuclear weapons. They have no choice. Their age-old enemy - China - is threatening the entire Asian region with the technology Clinton gave them.

Folks, the phone is ringing. This is the 3rd world nuclear wake-up call. Clinton's folly - his act of treason - has started the one thing no one wanted. An Asian/3rd world nuclear arms race. It is going to end in terrible disaster.

I posted on it a few weeks ago and can dig it up. I've worked with image and voice technologies. These are in wide use today and the laws in the US are weak, e.g., it's legal for the Registry of Motor Vehicles to sell a database of scanned images to a private corporation, not leagal in most European nations. The potential for abuse is chilling. I mean... you have no idea.
-EJ

I saw in the sunday parade mag. a picture of new russian jet fighter with air to air missles tech we don't have on a drawing board, built for russia by China

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 16,1998 Issue 06.04 John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso



The Gold Market
 Global Deflation Fears And A Central Bank Buyer

Short Term, We have Been Wrong On the Market
We expected a $290-$315 trading range if recent official selling which has capped the market persisted. It was our assessment that the prospect of an end to EMU related selling would improve market sentiment enough to prevent a break down to prior lows. We believed the large liquidations of gold in South East Asia were largely over, providing an important reduction in supplies from above ground stocks. This was another positive factor that should have provided support.
Last week we commented that fears of global deflation have caused speculative sentiment toward gold to turn negative. Funds probably covered large short positions progressively from September 1997 to April of this year. This new global deflation theme has led to a new round of fund short selling. Also, the evolving decision by the ECB to limit gold as a share of ECB reserves to 10% - 15% has curbed some of the positive sentiment that emerged in earlier months on the prospect of an end to EMU related official selling.
Interpolating from the latest position of traders report we estimate that the Comex net fund short position probably now exceeds 65,000 lots. The all time peak reached last September was above 70,000 lots. In most market declines, Comex fund short positions have peaked at current levels. Comex data reflect computer fund rather than hedge fund positions. Our sources indicate that the more theme-oriented hedge funds are deeply convinced of irreversible trends in dollar strength and global economic weakness. They see Asian economic weakness deepening. These deflationary forces are propagating across the emerging world and are having a decided deflationary impact on prices in the US. Convinced of spiraling deflation and the prospect of a "global meltdown" they are massively long the dollar and US fixed income and are heavily short all commodities including gold.
An Official Sector Buyer
We have been far more wrong about short run dynamics in the gold market than the modestly lower than expected gold price suggests, because the market has had considerable support over recent weeks from a large official sector purchase. We have received reports that the Swiss National Bank and possibly a large Swiss bank have been buying for a large official buyer. These purchases have been made through more than one dealer in London as well as outside London. More than 100 tonnes may have been purchased over the last two weeks, with some estimates of a total purchase ( possibly dating back several months ) of several hundred tonnes.
Who is this undisclosed official buyer? Once again China and Japan are the names that surface. The latter should, of course, seem highly unlikely. However, the rumors have been around for months and have surfaced again. We quote from an earlier piece on these rumors :


That leaves us with Japan. For most market participants, the idea of Japan adding to its gold reserves seems almost unthinkable. We have received the following inputs:
 One source insists that Japan has bought some official gold in the 1990's.
 Another source has reported a modest size purchase by Japan in Q297.
 A third source has alerted us to an imminent move by Japan to restructure its official reserves in a way that would include more gold.
 In a recent conference call, Deutsche bank hinted about the possibility that some Asian central banks may raise the share of gold in their total reserves toward the European average. No compelling evidence was presented to support this conjecture. Dealers who know something that is relevant to the market but cannot be disclosed often make statements to their clients that appear to lack adequate support.
 We have received a report that Japan bought some of the gold that Belgium sold.
 In response to our inquires into these "straws in the wind" one source has told us that there has been a major official buyer in Asia in recent months. It is not China; they sold what they purchased earlier. It is either Taiwan or Japan.
There is enough "smoke" over a purchase by Japan to regard it as a possibility. We still rate it as a long shot.

The Global Deflation Issue and Gold
It would seem that the global deflation issue is overdone.
1 ) Demand growth in the US and Europe ( roughly 45% of global demand ) has been exceptionally strong. ( The one caveat here is the US stock market. It is an asset bubble that will eventually burst, and when it does it will probably cause a consumer led US recession. )
2 ) Japan's economy is in recession. However, the new stimulus package is large and frontloaded. It should be turning the Japanese economy up soon. Remember, all the twists and turns of the Japanese economy in the 1990's are attributable to changes in fiscal policy.
3 ) Unlike the rest of the emerging Asia, China, the largest economy in the region, has lowered interest rates. It is also embarking on a massive public sector infrastructure program. The Chinese economy should continue to grow at a decent pace.
Therefore, short of a severe US stock market decline, a global recession does not appear imminent.
Continued flights of mobile capital from the emerging economies and Japan to the US are aggravating the South East Asian economic depression and are spreading economic weakness to Russia and Latin America. It is hard to assess the outlook here, since destructive capital movements like these have never occurred before on such a scale and have never had such disastrous effects. By past parameters, the current capital flight from Asia and the collapse in Asian currencies has gone too far. Measures of "competitiveness" make all the Asian currencies seem unsustainably low. Current accounts have all moved into massive surplus and will improve further. Asset markets have depreciated so much that funds should start to flow back into Asia. For example, one South East Asian stock markets are where they were eleven years ago. They traded then at low valuations. Since then there has been more than a threefold increase in nominal GDP. To achieve the same move in the US stock market relative to US GDP, the US ma

well it is now common practice for any violation other than a non-moving violation to be posted to state supreme courts and others, for what??????

Veneroso Associates
June 15,1998 Frank A. J. Veneroso

The Yen

 Despite Rubin's Comments, There Is A Good Chance of Intervention
The following note adopts the premise that a further fall in the yen, a Chinese devaluation, and a new round of currency devaluations in the emerging world threaten a yet deeper decline in the emerging country economies and thereby threaten global deflation. This view, widespread in today's markets, was expressed publicly last Thursday by Deputy Prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand.

HONG KONG, June 11 ( Reuters ) - Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi said on Thursday excessive falls in the Japanese yen might trigger a second crisis in Asia which would develop into a global depression. "Competitive currency devaluation will spell the second crisis and that might be initiated if the yen drops below a certain level. That would drive all the funds away from Asia. It would pull the whole world into it. It would be like a black hole," he said. "Asia's second crisiswould become the world's first financial crisis. And so recession in Asia could be turned into a worldwide depression," he told the seminar.

This note adopts this premise, not because it is sound economics, but because it is so completely the perception of the marketplace that it is somehow self fulfilling. In theory, currency depreciation throughout Asia should help these economies through trade. It is the industrial sectors of the US and Europe that should suffer. At today's exchange rates---let alone after a further devaluation---the cost of production is so much lower in Asia that capital should be flowing to this region, not from it. Why then, the perception as well as the actual process whereby a further yen devaluation will generate global deflation and depression?
The answer lies in the behavior of today's mobile global capital flows. No effort is made to discern long run prospective returns by today's markets. If these markets did focus on such long run returns, issues like country competitiveness would come to the fore. Rather, today's markets chase trends, regardless of relative prices.
Look at the Asian stock markets. They are making eleven year lows in domestic nominal currency terms. Over the last two decades these countries have experienced the greatest sustained economic expansion since the onset of the industrial revolution. Their real economies have expanded by twofold or more over these eleven years. Their economies in nominal terms have increased by three or fourfold over this period. These Asian markets sold at low valuations eleven years ago. How can they sell today below the levels of eleven years ago? Imagine if the US stock market fell to below the level that prevailed when its nominal GDP was 1/3 or 1/4 current levels. Because the US economy is a slow grower, that would take us back to the 1970's. The Dow would have to fall to 700 to pierce on the downside those prior historical lows.
Something like this has happened in emerging Asia. The values must be extraordinary. If Asia devalued yet more, its manufacturing sector would become yet more competitive. Yet, we assume, because of the mad way today's world works, that Supachai is correct: that a further round of devaluations would accelerate the outflow of mobile international capital, aggravate the regional financial crisis, deepen the regional depression, and threaten global economic activity. With this somewhat mad starting point, we make the following comments...

The Yen
Despite Rubin's Comments, There Is A Good Chance of Intervention
Given the trends in inflation and in productivity in tradeables in the US and Japan since the last time we were at 145 yen, Japanese competitiveness should be far greater today than it was then. The Japanese have further increased their competitiveness by moving the labor intensive component of their output to the emerging Asian countries which have now drastically devalued against the dollar. Two years ago Japanese firms estimated they were competitive at 106 yen/dollar. Today Japanese competitiveness must be off the charts.
When asked about the growing US current account deficit, Greenspan recently said that is Rubin's turf, everyone wants to buy dollars now, but in the long run the financing of a wider US current account deficit cannot be sustained. The Fed probably understands that the yen has fallen too far.
From a long run perspective, trade theory says 145 yen is not sustainable. But today's markets care only about momentum, not trade fundamentals. Policy makers usually care about such fundamentals. The domestic industries they serve usually care about such fundamentals. Rubin is unusual in that he has relatively little concern about such trade fundamentals. His focus is to keep capital flowing into US stock and bond markets, to impose US style market regimes on other countries, and to increase access by US firms to foreign assets and markets.
Rubin wants reforms in Japan that favor US business but that tend to deflate domestic demand in the short run. Rubin wants more fiscal stimulus in Japan where public sector debt and deficits are already very high. The Japanese understandably are reluctant to aggravate short run economic weakness and long run fiscal and public debt problems. They remember that US pressure in the 1980's for Japan to stimulate domestic demand contributed to the "bubble" economy, the legacy of which is at the heart of Japan's current problems. This muddies the outlook for G-7 intervention.
Long run, there is only one solution for Japan: the government must remove the bad loans from the banks and increase the monetary base enough to generate a yen inflation . It is not an issue of if these two things will happen; it is a matter of when. Japan is moving tentatively toward both. If it continues to move tentatively the crisis will deepen.
If it moves decisively, rapid monetary base growth will tend to weaken the yen ( as it is doing already ) . Does that mean the yen must devalue further if Japan accelerates monetary base growth? No, since yen weakness now is driven above all by perceptions that the Japanese economy will remain in decline forever. Getting the banks into a position to function again will be the turning point in dynamic fundamentals. When it becomes apparent that the credit-dependent Japanese economy will be able to grow again in a sustainable fashion, yen pessimism will fade. Then the yen will be a multi-year buy independent of G-7 intervention.
What about the short run? The G-7 could manage the dollar down if it wanted. It could "talk" the dollar down by focusing repeatedly on long term trade competitiveness which today's specualtor's raders are currently ignoring. If Big Brother bleats sufficiently above a woeful US trade outlook, it will change the fads and fashions that drive today's speculative capital flows. The G-7 could also engage in coordinated intervention. The markets assume coordinated intervention cannot work, but it has worked in the past whenever exchange rates have moved too far from long run equilibria. The US has a large and widening current account deficit. Ever greater capital flows are needed to keep the dollar where it is. Only an abatement, not a cessation, of today's perception driven speculative short term capital flows are needed to restore stability to the currency markets.
Managing the dollar down would bring currency parities more in line with long term trade fundamentals. It would help stop the irrational speculative capital outflows from Asia and the emerging world that are at the root of the financial crisis there. Under current chaotic conditions, both are desirable objectives. Unfortunately, it appears that Rubin's political wish list for Japan impedes a move toward coordinated intervention.
Everyone fears a Chinese devaluation could deepen the global currency crisis. On Monday and Friday of last week the Chinese stated that they would hold the line on the rimimbi but hinted that they might have to devalue. When you are defending a currency,. you never hint that you might devalue. The Chinese have. We must interpret this as a threat to the G-7.
Clinton is going to China in a week and a half. It appears that the Chinese are applying pressure to the G-7 to stabilize the yen.. The speculative community is massively short the yen. They are convinced that Japan can do nothing before the Japanese elections in late July so there is no near term risk. They have been emboldened by the failure of Japan's intervention at 135 yen and by Rubin's statement that intervention won't work until Japan gets its house in order. Using charts and similar technical tools, today's speculators project yen/dollar targets ( 170,240, etc. ) that make absolutely no sense from the perspective of trade theory.
The Chinese are threatening that, if the yen keeps falling, they may devalue. They will make clear to Clinton the US must push for currency stability in the region. Such political considerations may move the US to agree to massive coordinated intervention to reverse the decline in the yen, despite Rubin's desire to play chicken with the Japanese to get his political wish list. Because the speculators are so short and so complacent before the July elections, it might work. It would work if the Japanese moved to change perceptions about the outlook for Japanese growth, possibly by agreeing to strong measures after the elections to reduce bad loans in the banking system and to cut taxes on consumer incomes. 

take care.

Not sure if this has been posted. Light crude oil closed @$11.56/Bbl.!!!

Exciting day, eh! Getting the popcorn popped and the beer is icing down. Ready for the show tonight. Having done that, here is my prediction-- a complete DUD tonight. Stability will reign in Asia this session.

oh, yes, a spakes a spade here i don't know what you boys see. but i sees what i sees and if the kink has no clothes I'll be the first to tell him so.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.26. The 50 day moving average is 29.99. A spot price of $285.10 was used to compute the ratio this evening.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .232. The 50 day moving average is .271. My database contains 11 occasions where the XAU closed in the 66.XX range. The close today, ranked according to the gold price is #9. The #1 ranking was on August 4, 1986, with a gold price of $360.30, an XAU of 66.08 producing a ratio of .183. The 50 day moving average for the XAU is 81.85 tonight.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.57. The 50 day moving average is 52.36. A spot silver price of $5.04 was used to make the calculation.

By what rational do you anticipate a DUD tonight. The only reason I can come up with is that no one would expect it - everyone is expecting a major down.
- c

Things may be starting to get unglued. Dow down over 200 pts. Crude down over $1.00/Bbl., Comex silver stocks down under 86 million. ozs. Gold and siver hanging in there, all things considered.

A dollar reversal would cap it off; but that doesn't appear likely. Nevertheless, it could prove to be an interesting week. Always remember, things rarely seem to happen the exact way we expect them to. There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. Maybe it's show time!

but wait for the tell, it's sure to be hell.

LanMan, I realize that your 18:18 post is just repeating info. you've found elsewhere, but as I've been doing so frequently lately, I must set you straight that there isn't a shred of truth in the basic premise.

Firstly, I'm a Loral employee, have been for quite some time, and am aware of the actual facts FIRSTHAND. Those actual facts are these;

1 ) Loral is a Communication satellite manufacturer. We don't sell missiles, we don't build missiles, we don't work on Govt. defense programs, we neither sell nor do we have access to "secret" missile technology.

2 ) We use "Long March" chinese launch vehicles to put our sattelites in space WHEN our commercial European and Asian customers request it. We've been doing so for over a decade. Pres. Bush signed waivers for SEVERAL of these Chinese launches long before Clinton came along. The latest wiaver to launch was routine, and just the latest of over a dozen.

3 ) The so called "technology transfer" of "secret" missle technology is a total joke! We don't even have access to such technology, let alone the capability to transfer it to China. No ne at Loral has a secret clearance, indeed, no one needs to since we don't work on any classified technology.

4 ) The bogus story had it's roots in a launch which failed, spilling our satellite from the sky. The satellite was an "InTelSat" made for a European customer. it was that foreign customer who CHOSE the Chinese Long march as their launch vehicle. There was NOTHING of a classified or sensitive nature , involved in the manufacture or sale of that satellite, and China wasn't the customer.

Far from making "Billions off China", we have sold NO missile technology, or anything similar to them.

5 ) After the Long March failure, our insurance carrier inssited that we, ( and other satellite manufacturers ) review the Chinese failure analysis for validity, prior to any future launches. The CHinese had concluded that a broken solder joint caused the launch failure. We concurred as did the rest of the review team.

An engineer from Hughes, Mr. Wu, was later identified as being a Loral Engineer giving "Secret nuclear missile technology" to China. This is as false as false can get. Not only is the Engineer in question, NOT an employee of Loral, nor has he ever been, but as I have repeated many times, we don't build, nor do we even have ACCESS to any such "Secret Nuclear missile technology" nor are we even remotely related to that business, other than our reliance on hiring various suppliers to launch our birds. ( As all OTHER major satellite manufacturers do also ) ...

These suppliers include CHina, Indonesia, and Russia, as well as domestic launches. We have nothing to do with their launch vehicles, other than babysitting our satellite and testing it, once it's mated and ready to go.

6 ) If you'll review your posted statement as follows;

"The Justice Department was running a criminal investigation on Loral. They suspected Loral had broken U.S. security laws by selling classified, top-secret technology to China. Clinton personally squelched the criminal investigation. Because of all this, Loral received contracts from the Chinese, to supply them with critical missile technology. Loral made billions on its China deals."


Compare that statement to the FACTS in this case, and you will discover they are complete fabrications of a very sloppy reporters story. About the only thing he got right was that Bernie Schwartz was a big contributor to Clinton. This however, had nothing whatsoever to do with the China issues, and instead is indicative of Bernie's long standing support of Democratic candidates. Like many Clinton supporters, Bernie will now have to endure the smear of being associated with one of the sleaziest politicians of all time.....

However, that has nothing whatsoever to do with this supposed "Secret nuclear missile technology transfer"....a story as false and laughable as they come, for anyone who is employed at Loral, and aware of the real facts...as I personally am.

http://www.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=gao&docid=f:ai98072.txt
Year 2000 Computer Problems Threaten DOD Operations

From
http://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm

Also
http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html
I am not going to post all the many pages of info from this site.
There are to many updates.

Scroll down to June 12th and look at the Y2k power articles.
Seems a bit of truth is starting to surface?

Seems like everywhere I search for y2k info on the net.
I see more and more mention of fear and buying gold.
And I see more and more creditable programmers speaking out.
And they seem to be getting more concerned.

Collapse of the Yen Places China in a Precarious Position

Those of you who have subscribed to STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update
for a while, or who have perused our archives, know that we have been
extremely negative about the Asian economy since 1996. Our predictions
concerning Asia have come true, thus far, save for one. We have argued
that the final Asian domino to fall would be China, and that the collapse
of China's economy would signal the beginning of the second phase of the
Asia saga, as the focus turned from economic disaster to the political
consequences of that disaster. Those consequences would include both
internal and regional political realignments that would redefine both East
and Southeast Asian politics and the global system as well. Thus far,
China has struggled successfully against this fate. Last week, its room
for maneuver narrowed dramatically.

As with most events in the current Asian crisis, China's problem began with
Japan. Japan's problems began when they reported that the Japanese economy
had contracted in the last quarter. Japan's slide into recession was
devastating news for the Japanese government and the permanent bureaucracy
that controls the Bank of Japan. The BOJ had been holding interest rates
at next to nothing. The reason had less to do with stimulating the
Japanese economy than with providing Japan's ailing industries with enough
cheap money to keep going. Low interest rates placed substantial pressure
on the yen, as Japanese corporations unloaded yen in favor of other
currencies. This weakened the yen, which is precisely what the BOJ was
hoping for, since it reduced the cost of Japanese exports, thereby
increasing exports and postponing the day of reckoning. Postponing the day
of reckoning has become the sum total of Japanese economic policy.

The one bit of good news that was supposed to come out of all of this was
that the Japanese economy would grow due to increased exports. Instead it
contracted. There were two reasons for this contraction. First, Japanese
exports into Southeast Asia were slashed due to that region's economic
collapse. Second, the importer of last resort, the United States, is
undergoing an unprecedented economic renaissance in both productivity and
creativity. Japan, which has not been in a position to reinvest in its own
economy due to economic problems going back to 1991, has an aging
industrial plant that simply can't compete with American products,
particularly in the American market. Although the Japanese continue to be
able to compete on price, the vast difference in quality between Japanese
and American products simply isn't there any longer. Moreover, the most
dynamic sectors, such as software and biotech, are simply beyond Japan's
capacity to dominate or even seriously compete in. Thus, its primary
market, the United States, responds to low priced goods which have minimal,
if any, profit margin, while Japan's secondary market, Southeast Asia, is
unable to buy anything compared to what it purchased last year. The
result: Japan is in a depression, dispensing with the circumlocution of
"recession."

With this realization, Japanese and foreigners holding yen frantically sold
them last week, driving the price down to levels that haven't been seen in
seven years. This is not a temporary phenomenon. With interest rates at
virtually zero, a contracting economy, difficulty in profitably penetrating
the U.S. market, and a vanishing ASEAN market, who in their right mind
would invest in Japan? Moreover, there are no obvious solutions. The Bank
of Japan could raise interest rates to attract foreign investors, but
higher interest rates would trigger a wave of bankruptcies among second
tier companies that are barely holding on, in turn triggering a new banking
crisis, and so on. Japan could stimulate the economy by encouraging
domestic consumption, but that would cut the savings rate, destabilizing
the banks once again. So, unless the United States decides to buy yen,
there is little to raise its value. And the U.S. doesn't mind the weak
yen, as it causes massive inflows of money into the United States, thus
helping to maintain U.S. capital formation.

All of this puts China in the cross-hairs. The Chinese yuan and the Hong
Kong dollar are the only major currencies that have not readjusted to the
new Asian reality. It has been the absolute policy of the Chinese
government not to devalue its currencies. But with the yen at 144 to the
dollar, the pressure on the Chinese to devalue has become irresistible.
The ASEAN collapse has already slashed Chinese exports. With the yen's
collapse, what little market share Chinese exports to ASEAN retained is
being destroyed by now cheaper Japanese goods. Moreover, with the Japanese
forced into a price-based export surge into the U.S. market, they are in a
position, along with the ASEAN countries, to place tremendous pressure on
Chinese exports into the world's largest and most dynamic economy.
Indeed, with the yuan unchanged and the yen down, the Japanese will be able
to increase their exports to China itself.

Price had been one of the great advantages that China enjoyed in the global
economy. Maintaining the value of its currencies at pre-collapse levels
has effectively undermined that advantage. Thus the key question: Why have
the Chinese remained so stubborn about maintaining the yuan and HK dollar
at irrationally high levels? Why not devalue? Since an export-based
economy has been a cornerstone of Chinese policy, resisting devaluation
appears to be irrational in the extreme. Since the Chinese are rarely
irrational, it is necessary to look beneath the surface for an answer.

The key, we believe, is the fragility of investment in China, including not
only foreign investment but domestic Chinese investment as well. The focus
here is on Hong Kong, which is the financial interface between China and
the rest of the world. By holding the yuan steady and keeping the HK
dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar, China has limited what it dreads the
most: capital flight. One of the things that shattered ASEAN economies and
which prevents Japan's economy from recovering is the constant flight of
money to foreign economies, and particularly to the United States. China
has already seen some of this. Its strategy has been to stem the tide by
creating confidence in the markets. The key to maintaining confidence is
to maintain the value of the yuan and the HK dollar. In order to maintain
their value, it must maintain confidence. And so on, in an endless cycle.

The cycle, in the end, depends on reality, but the reality has a
psychological component. China has tried to create a reality of a robust
economy immune to the problems faced by the rest of Asia. Part of this
strategy has been political. Clinton's upcoming visit to China is a
crucial link in this process. Clinton, in a speech before the National
Geographic Society this weekend, explained that good relations with China
are critical because, after all, China has maintained a 10 percent growth
rate, on average, for the past 20 years. In other words, China is a
powerful economy that needs to be treated with respect. Apart from the
geopolitical benefits of this viewpoint, Clinton reinforces the psychology
China is trying desperately to maintain.

But the premise of Clinton's assertion is that a high growth rate denotes
power. In fact, there is no necessary correlation between growth and
health. Anyone willing to sell below cost will have a high growth rate,
until he goes bankrupt. That is what happened to Japan. China's high
growth rate does not mean that it has had profitable growth. Japan's
problem, prefacing China's by about 8 years, was that it had magnificent
growth, but the lowest rate of return on capital in the industrial world.
The result was short term growth rates that were astronomical, followed by
economic collapse.

Consider: The rest of Asia has had a massive economic collapse. Yet the
Chinese are claiming that they will be able to achieve 8 percent growth in
1998, just as they had before. That seems to be an impossible feat. Now,
all Chinese economic statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt, but
we believe that China will achieve 8 percent growth in production in 1998.
The reason can be found in an example cited by China's Xinhua News Agency
on May 25. Xinhua reported: "Despite growing demand for nice suit from the
nouveaux riches men, the domestic supply of suit has far outstripped the
market demand, today's China Daily quoted the China National Garment
Association as saying. According to Chen Ling, an association official,
China last year turned out more than 10 billion suits, half of which were
exported, but only 13 million suits were sold in domestic market. As more
and more suits are stockpiled in the warehouses, production costs of many
enterprises are growing rapidly, which has led to the rising price of
suits, she pointed out."

In other words, the Chinese have FIVE BILLION suits sitting in their
warehouses, priced beyond the reach of the Chinese market. They are also
saying that they sold five billion suits last year, without selling more
than a few million in China. We have confirmed this figure from other
sources, but we still find it absolutely astounding. Indeed, we have to
believe that this number is exaggerated. Either way it is bad news for
China. If the number is correct, then it means that the garment industry
has produced itself to oblivion. If the number is lower and there are
only, for example, five million suits in warehouses, it still means that
they are overproducing. It also means that Chinese economic statistics,
like Chinese suits, are not always made of the finest fabric.

It is in this context that we should take the report by the Chinese State
Statistics Bureau last week that production in China rose by about 8
percent over the same period last year, and nearly 1 percent over the
previous month. China is producing and, if need be, it can sell what it
produces. What is not clear is that it can sell what it produces at a
profit, or if it can even break even. In other words, the Chinese are
suffering from the Japanese disease, in which growth has psychological
value at the same time as it undermines economic well being. Thus, the
Chinese are trying to hold up the yuan and Hong Kong dollar to maintain the
illusion that they can escape the Asian disease. Their theory s that, if
enough people believe that China is invulnerable, there will be no capital
flight. If there is no capital flight, eventually there will be an inflow
of capital. If there is an inflow of capital, everyone will forget about
the old suits sitting in warehouses.

The key to this is psychological. The Chinese are desperately trying to
portray themselves as the equals of the United States in dealing with the
crisis. George Bush was in China last week announcing that the Asian
crisis will be short-lived. Clinton is heading there next with the same
message. Both are creating an aura that is absolutely essential to China's
well-being: that China is a vibrant, functioning economy, that can work
with the United States in reviving Asia. The Chinese have indeed played
this brilliantly.

Unfortunately for them, the yen collapsed last week. China is overpriced,
overproducing and over the barrel. The lowered yen has created
overwhelming pressure to devalue. The psychological game cuts both ways.
Having worked to create the illusion of invincibility, devaluation will
reveal that the emperor has no clothes. The Chinese began a campaign last
week placing the blame for the yen's rise on Japan and demanding that the
U.S. do something about it. Thus, China's next ploy will be to portray
devaluation as a defensive measure against American indifference and
Japanese predatory behavior. But it will be a feeble ploy, officially
believed only by those Western banking houses that have led their clients
into disastrous investments in China.

We believe that the Chinese game is about up. The next question, as in
Indonesia, will be political. What will economic contraction mean to
China's domestic and foreign policies? That is an interesting question, to
be posed after this one: What will Japan's economic collapse mean for its
domestic and foreign policies?

get back to the computer until tonight. Concerning your questions about the Nikkei going below 14,000: the equities to be concerned about are the Dow and S&P- type stocks. Any stock that is overvalued as in: P/E, P/BookValue, high-tech stocks that have ridden to giddy heights on nothing more than a promise, i.e. any stock that has been run up in the wave of "irrational exuberance."

PM stocks follow their own fundamentals, and while a crash might drag them down temporarily, if the fundamentals, which means the POG for most, are going up, they'll start going up fairly quickly again. If the fundamentals are still bad- well, that's obvious. If a more orderly bear market begins without a crash, then PM stocks may just do their own thing independently of the broad market.

Why is a 14,000 Nikkei critical? Don't think of it as some kind of a magical trigger that will suddenly cause scads of banks to go into receivership. The reason it's important is that Japan allows its banks to include stock holdings in their reserves. It's a nonensical policy- guaranteed to increase the volatility of the banks' performance, but it was an important loophole for crony capitalism.

As the value of these bank-ownwd shares goes down, their reserves go down, and banks are in danger of falling below their minimum reserve requirements. Now the gov't has let them off the hook domestically, by allowing them to value their equities at the price they paid for them until the shares are actually sold, or the bank decides to voluntarily write them down. Of course, the gov't wasn't about to shut down a whole bunch of banks and trigger a panic among the populace.

Banks have to deal internationally, though, and the BIS is not about to let the banks get away with shenanigans like that! At 14,000 or so, the portfolios of many Japanes banks will have fallen to the point where they will be in violation of the BIS reserve requirements. What will happen at that point is uncertain, IMHO. The BIS might cut them off, but then maybe the OECD countries will intervene on Japan's behalf and convince BIS to let them off the hook. At any rate, no sophisticated investors will keep their money in technically insolvent banks, and you'll see a wave of failures, no matter how the people in power try to paper over the problems.

I'm using a figure of 14,000, which was calculated by Ian McAvity at a panel discussion I attended in April. This is just an average value, based on the supposition of banks holding equities that will mirror the Nikkei in performance. Obviously some banks will have much better portfolios than others, and so what you'll see is an increasing number of banks failing and being sold or merged as the Nikkei coasts down toward 14,000, then increasing to a flood as it crosses the line and goes even lower. Banks that want to stay afloat will have to raise reserves, and many of them may start selling US debt.

This is the thing the US administration fears. Selling US treasury debt will drive down the US$, causing losses for all the foreigners who hold it, which will trigger more selling, and so on in a positive feedback cycle. The Treasury Dept. knows that one thing it can't deal with is massive panic selling of treasuries.

James Dines spoke on the same panel after Ian McAvity. He was bullish on the US stock market, but stated that he agreed with McAvity and would immediately switch to a bearish stance if the Nikkei crossed 14,000. He also said that a Chinese devaluation would lead to 'Armageddon' if it happens, and that everyone should get out of non-PM stocks immediately if it does.

I think it's fairly obvious why a devaluation by China would be a disaster.

Hope this helps,
- Steve

London--Jun 15--Uncertainty over the future of huge official gold reserves held in Europe looks set to continue despite news last week of a European Central Bank consensus that ECB reserves will consist of 10 to 15% gold. The real issue that will drive the market is whether national central banks can sell at will from a surplus of around 12,000 tonnes to be excluded from centralized reserves. By Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .15432

They have always been able to sell at will, why is this a new issue?

I've been trying to preach the potential of "Saints" here for quite some time, but was heavily derided for recommending a Gold investment that involved a Numismatic "premium".

History has made clear the wisdom of going with the Saints. They're soaring as Gold bullion gets killed.

In similar fashion, Platinum buyers ought to consider the new 1998 Platinum Eagle Proof sets. They're a virtual lock to rise in value quickly as the 1997's did, due to the announced, ultra low mintages, and high interest in the program. I expect they'll be a quick sell out...you?

Came across some junk mail for a course in commodity trading by a fellow called Larry Williams called "The Money Tree." He claims that his system generates a ratio correct/incorrect decision ratio of 0.8!

Has anyone out there tries this system, or know anything about Williams?

ThanQ in advance,
- Steve

Notice once again that a major correction in the DOW, even coupled with an enormous plethora of scary stories re economic woes in the East, do NOTHING for Gold's price.

I think the historical conventional wisdom re Gold, Dow, & economic troubles, has gone down the tubes. IMHO, only a shift in fundamentals, crash in the U.S. dollar, and hyperinflation, would truly revive Gold. Meanwhile, there are metals where the fundamentals dictate a rise, regradless..... we all know to which metals I refer!

Yet.

Patience is a virtue, especially in long term investments.
-EJ

RJ....I see and am encouared by early AM posts, that the true bastions of Kitco dignity have moved in to support reason, logic, reality, genuine analysis, and truth over vacuous hype..

This being the case, I can rest a little easier, knowing the world has not yet been completely taken over by fascist minded propaganda apologists!

Let me second Mr. Disney's comment, and JTF's comment, that amongst thinking, intelligent beings, your contributions ... always based on genuine market expertise and knowledge, are FAR AND AWAY more valuable to this forum than an entire chorus of cheerleading Spinmeisters...let alone the self obsessed ranting of a single "Wanna Be" analyst.

Thinking folks don't take Spinmeister's seriously...whether they be ceaseless Clinton apologists...ceaseless GOLD cheerleaders...or even ceaseless DOW cheerleaders. The scary thing is that so many sheeplike clones DO take propagandists seriously. One could do a sociological study as to where such mindsets have led us in the past, in this century.

I feel badly for Farful..he seems to think that the One Note DOW cheerleaders he incessantly refers to, are respected members of the financial community to be emulated...but in the opposing extreme. Apparently he doesn't get out much and read what the REAL market analyst's have to say.

As to Gold, I love the feel of a Nice St Gaudens or American Eagle... the look, the beauty, the history, the very essence of intrinsic value...... those "Saints" are doing nicely,,,but as to bullion, methihnks it's day to shine, is still a little ways off...and even when it does come, one must be poised to prfot, and then look for whatever signs will send us back to greener pastures, yes?

Liberty: Be ye a Saint yourself, and let all else take care of itself.

Panda: your 17:42 - Morton Downey indeed! The TOP has been attained. Thank you for pointing it out!

We shall see. I think that in a total meltdown, Gold might benefit, but if we ultimately shift to a long slow grinding deflationary recesionary Bear phase in the DOW, I have doubts that Gold will react much. Time will tell.

Compared to equities PR, Gold PR is poorly funded, disorganized, and primative.

Equities pushers market through a bullhorn of major news organizations. Gold pushers market through a kazoo of Internet newsgroups. Looks like gold is a loser. Recall that only a few years ago "Japan Inc. is unstoppable" and the "Asian Tigers will rule the capitalist world in the 21st century."

Let's just say I'm not so easily influenced.

-EJ

The scared money is fleeing to the dollar right now. When it stops
fleeing to the dollar, gold will rise sharply. The U.S. is importing
its way to a recession at minimum. When the Fed starts to lower
rates to stimulate the economy, the dollar will come down with a thud.
At that point the conventional wisdom will look like like unconventional
genius.

Just a thought which popped into my vacuous head while driving back to work from lunch today... could we be in a deflationary inflationary bull market? What I mean is this...deflationary forces have brought the prices of Bonds AND stox up, because the assets and profits represented by American and European common shares are aquiring more and more value as conventionally envisaged inflationary forces abate. In the long run, I must agree with Farfel that the end result will be stagflationary. And then Hyperinflkationary. But for now, is "deflation" adding value to producing assets like stocks and bonds? Anyone?

It's not an issue. I just posted it to let people know that the European 'gorrilla' is still constantly being pushed as the reason for POG falls.

I think its rubbish. The Germans, French and Italians hold about 10K of that 12K holding and they have consistantly said that they are not selling.

Yet everywhere you go, all you get told is 'massive' European gold sales.

I am sick of rumour and innuendo. All concerned should state their position and let the markets react in a logical and rrational manner.

Live Long and Prosper.

Are you suggesting that I mind my own business and keep my caustic sentiments to myself?? ( hehe ) ... how's a guy supposed to enjoy life?

You are absolutely correct. As most here who know cme know, I am an advertising and marketing professional ( well...I TRY to be professional ) In 1991/92 I pitched the WGC to convince them to hype gold professionally and creatively. They declined. Gold has NO marketing lights behind it. A good marketer/ad person with a knowledge of gold and imagination could do wonders with a decent budget. But the interests that cling to gold are as primordial as the yello metal itself. We need a fresh generation of bugs to get with THAT program. Or just funnel a few mil in MY direction and I'll put together the team that will boost gold like you've never seen.

Perish Forbid! Your Caustic Komments are Kitco"s kultural treasure. I am merely looking after you soul, which, your ascerbic nature notwithstanding, is a glorious and imperishable value which I defend and support. That is my job as METAphysician. The Doctor is IN! Blessings!

I picked up some of L. Williams literature at a
relative's home, asked about it, and was given
the whole course. For me it was a good primer in
commodity trading. I never tried the system, but
have a lot of respect now for anyone making a
living like that. He emphasized level-headed
discipline and rigorous risk and cash management.
It's not a scam, but the info is available for
free through any good economics book dealer.

LGB,

you are too fast ( as usual ) to post "I know it all - you don't" without verifying the facts.

You say "No one at Loral has a secret clearance, indeed, no one needs, to since we don't work on any classified technology."

That ain't true, you have many employees with top secret and top secret clearences - without it you would not be able to touch some contracts you work on.

BTW, the following is a description of one of your "wanted" and this possition requires much more than secret clearance:

"Responsible for the supervision of a 24 hour Security Operations Center. Oversee a contract guard force that provides for the physical security of all buildings and structures to include alarms, entry control, CCTV and emergency response. Select, train, and evaluate shift leads in the use and operation of the Security Operations Center equipment. Develop and implement the Physical security budget. Requires 10+ years direct experience in Industrial Security ( 5+ years in a supervisory capacity ) . Must be able to obtain TS/SSBI clearance; US Citizenship required. A BA in related field desirable. "

Be careful with your facts!!

Sure is good to have you back on the forum...much as I remain a "True disbeliever" in Astrology, you sir are a true paragon of gentlemanly discourse, and well reasoned intellect.

Now where have all the other charter members gone? Where's DA, Realistic, Oldman, and other such contributors of days of yore? Those guy's had rich veins of Ore for us all to mine and benefit from.

Anyway, hope you be hangin round more........

Please if any one has heard anymore reliable rumors ( oxymoron? ) about BOJ buying gold please pass it on to the rest of us.

Or was this just somthing to keep us from commiting suicide over the weekend so we could be further fleeced during the week?

Huh?

Excuse me Miro, but you don't know what you're talking about. Give us the full name of the Loral company in question. Is it "Space Systems Loral"....the company I work for, and the satellite manufacturing company in question in this whole China business???

Or is it one of the older Loral defensae business companies, who many years ago were bought out by Lockheed Martin, and some still retain the name?

I repeat, we're not a defense contractor, we don't build defense related hardware, we don't build missiles, nor are we involved in missile technology.

I'm amazed that an "outsider" who is not intimately familiar with my company or their business, takes it on himself to tell me he knows more about it than I do. particularly since I've been involved in just about every facet of the business, and for many years...

I'll say this for you Miro, you give the words "Pompous Ass" new meaning.

I know my facts here, you don't. Drop the issue before you make yourself look even more foolish...or better yet, call up Space Systems Loral and ask them how many defense related, "classified" missile programs they work on....

Furthermore Mr. Blowhard, the "Security" position you refer to is an INDUSTRIAL security position, and has nothing whatsoever to so with defense, classified technology, etc.

Like most companies in this type of manufacturing biz, we have security procedures, and an entire staff to implement them. This has zero to do with defense or classified technology.

I'm curious, what prompts someone completely ignorant of the facts to make posts such as yours? I noticed the same phenomenon with others...attacking RJ's Monex Co. for example ..armed with completely false info. You one of those rumor mongering types or what?

Another two hundred point drop will begin to add fuel to the already blazing rate of redemptions. The funds will have to use thier line of credits to cover and that will only add more downside to the decline. This market is overheated,over leveraged and worst of all on the edge of panic. The unfortunate part is that weak hands will end up holding the worthless paper and the old boys club will have made the biggest score of the century. It would not surprise me to see long lineups outside of mutual fund companies! Your average Joes trying to cash out at the worst possible time. Greenspan and Rubin could of stopped the slaughter but didnot! Clinton could of stopped the slaughter but didnot! This will lead to violence and chaos! The buy signal for gold is in and i am of the opinion that the time frame is very short before all hell breaks loose! God Bless The Poor!

Deflationary inflationary WHAT? Let me try a conjecture here. The world is overpopulated and technology has eliminated vast numbers of traditional occupations. Gone are the times when a man could make his living farming, doing a little carpentry and blacksmithing on the side. Instead people are either supported by the government on one excuse or another or supervise machines ( or other men who act like machines ) to mass produce the plastic stuff we use. Nowadays the only occupations which truly support prosperity are those which deal with abstract concepts ( such as securites analysis ) involving esoteric knowledge, health and human services, the law or entertainment. IMHO

So here is the conjecture. For some people, say all the drones who work for the US federal government ( plus all the parasites in the hive ) , brain surgeons, Michael Jordan, and stockbrokers we're in a period of deflation, with lots of extra money. For the lucky ones who've found a government teat to suck on things are stable. For the majority of workers it is an inflationary nightmare, an endless treadmill of eat/sleep/work/pay taxes. IMHO

So at least the perception of inflation/deflation is purely a matter of one's perspective. IMHO

Which brings to mind a Robert A. Heinlein quote:

" Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat,
populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are
never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into
those who want people to be controlled and those who have no
such desire. The former are idealists acting from the highest
motives for the greatest good of the greatest number. The
latter are surly curmudgeons, suspicious and lacking in
altruism. But they are more comfortable neighbors than the
other sort."

Down 53 points and dropping, move over Indonesia you have a partner, oh yes and Canada is about to join you as well! Wake up world Gold is the only true measure of wealth!

BEIJING, June 15 ( Reuters ) - China's parliamentary chief Li Peng on Monday
urged Japan to stabilise its economy, saying the slide of the Japanese yen
had put fresh pressure on Asia's economies.

In a rare break with diplomatic protocol, Li voiced China's concern about
the slide of the yen to a visiting Japanese elder statesman, urging Tokyo to
``stabilise Japan's economy.''

Xinhua news agency quoted Li, chairman of the National People's Congress, as
telling former chief cabinet secretary Susumu Nikaido the ``recent continued
devaluation of the Japanese yen has imposed a new pressure on the economies
in Asia.''

China bristles at outside complaints about its policies as interference in
its internal affairs, and top leaders usually leave the job of criticising
foreigners to state-run media.

Li's comments followed a firestorm of criticism unleashed against the United
States and Japan by China's leading financial dailies earlier on Monday.

They railed against the two countries for failing to halt the yen's slide,
saying the two were pursuing their own interests at great peril to troubled
Asian economies.

The state-run newspapers said Japanese and U.S. inaction in the face of the
yen's fall made it hard for China to keep its pledge not to devalue its
currency, a policy Beijing has for months trumpeted as a major sacrifice for
beleaguered Asia.

The Financial News, published jointly by China's central bank and major
state-run commercial banks, issued the most forceful of many recent Chinese
gripes about the yen's dramatic slide to almost eight-year lows.

``The falling yen has already put immense pressure on the Chinese renminbi
currency, which has stayed firm throughout the Southeast Asian financial
crisis,'' it cautioned in a front-page commentary.

``Why are Japan and the United States letting the yen slide?'' it asked.
``Mainly because a falling yen suits the two countries' economic interests
now and is beneficial in passing on their domestic economic problems to
other countries,'' the daily said.

``People are worried that a failure by Japan and the United States to take
resolute measures to stop the yen's excessive slide would be highly likely
to trigger financial turmoil on a world scale,'' the commentary warned.

Washington could cut interest rates and intervene in forex markets to stop
the yen's decline but feared that ``a sharp fall in the dollar would very
likely cause an outflow of foreign capital, causing a plunge in U.S. stock
and bond markets,'' it said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin had often touted the benefits to the
U.S. economy of a strong dollar, it added.

Conversely, Japan was reluctant to use its vast foreign exchange reserves
and overseas assets to bolster the yen because it sought to export its way
out of its domestic slump, the paper said.

A weak yen makes Japanese goods cheaper in overseas markets while raising
the price of imports in Japan. Even before the yen's latest slump, Japan's
sluggish economy and inability to absorb imports cast a pall over Asia's
recovery prospects.

The commentary cited Japanese statistics showing an exchange rate of 132.70
yen to the dollar would bring about annual Gross Domestic Product growth in
Japan of 0.2 percent, while a rate of between 144-145 yen would facilitate
growth of 1.0 percent.

The dollar rose above 146 yen in Tokyo on Monday afternoon, its highest
level since August 1990.

While the two big economic powers enjoyed the weak yen's benefits, Southeast
Asia faced a vicious circle of collapsing currencies and falling exports to
Japan, it said, adding that China's thus far stable renminbi was not immune
to the pressure.

The China Market Economic News added: ``The yen's tumble has created immense
pressure on the renminbi because nearly one-fourth of China's foreign
exchange reserves are denominated in yen.''

It blamed the yen's slide for sharp drops on China's stock markets last
week, which it said forced Beijing to cut the securities transaction stamp
tax to boost market sentiment.

The Financial Morning Post directed more criticism at Japan, accusing Tokyo
of shirking its global duties and failing to live up to years of pro-Asia
rhetoric.

``The yen's fall highlights an extreme lack of farsightedness on the part of
the Japanese government,'' said a commentary.

Time to buy another boat load of Gold, this time with some USD...

The chant started again today, reprising that of October 1997: "bonds rose in a flight to safety". Remember gold? Eventually everyone will. May Dick Nixon rest in peace.

Bill Murphy ( of Veneroso Associates ) has not made any new posts at Silicon Investor today. I have occasionaly ( with his permission ) reposted his "inside" info on here. If any new posts are made, I will repost them here. The "Gold Watch" and the Yen update, both from Veneroso Associates that were emailed today, have been posted here already. It is a bit worrisome that we have not heard any follow up to that rumor.

Morton Downy --- :- ) )

Now you know the top is in--- Sort of like Howard Ruff and the "Ruff Times" program on T.V. back a few years ago.... ( for gold )

I've thought long and hard on the intrinsic value of copper covered lead versus gold. There is an undeniable utilitarian value of one over the other in the most extreme situations. I hope I never have to test this hypothisis to the extreme. Let us hope the worst we ever see is a simple bear market. Then again, there is the Klintock factor, Chinese factor, Asia, ...

Toronto stocks close with one of worst losses 2

TORONTO, June 15 ( Reuters ) - The Toronto stock market suffered one of its worst point losses in recent history on Monday as buyers retreated in record numbers, spooked by Asia's deepening economic crisis.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's key 300 composite index plunged 206.40 points or 2.82 percent to 7104.52. Volume was 108.7 million shares worth C$2.29 billion. Decliners topped advancers 837 to 230 with another 255 issues unchanged.

The 206-point drop was the sixth worst day in recent history for the Toronto exchange. The worst was October 27, 1997, when the local market plunged 434.25 points.

New York's closely watched Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its fifth worst point loss, falling 207.01 points or 2.34 percent to 8627.93. The worst day was October 27, 1997, when the blue chip index slipped 554 points.

"It was one ugly day. There's not one good thing to say except that the market's closed," said David Jarvis, a liability trader at Levesque Beaubien Geoffrion in Toronto.

"It's just terrible. There's liquidation. People just didn't want equities. There's really no story besides that."

The Toronto market has lost 430.91 points or 5.7 percent in the past five sessions.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/TORONTO-STOCKS-CLOSE.html

"some staff were being paid $20,000 a month"
June 15, 1998 - NZ INFOTECH WEEKLY

Programmers get Y2K `golden handcuffs'

EDS has unveiled "golden handcuffs" for highly skilled staff that they wish to keep till after January 1, 2000.

A new Year 2000 Retention Plan goes into effect on July 1, offering big financial incentives to Year 2000 programmers who are prepared to stay with the company for the next 18 months or so.

Managing director Steve Smith declined to confirm reports that some staff were being paid $20,000 a month, but said that staff were being paid market rates and were being offered "significant" incentives to stay with EDS.

The Y2K issue is a critical one for EDS, as it runs much of the country's banking and government infrastructure.

The Retention Plan mainly targets Y2K skills but includes people with SAP or object-oriented programming skills.

"The market rates for those people have gone up tremendously."

The New Zealand market has become highly competitive for people with Y2K skills, Mr Smith says, and they can also earn big money overseas.

He says the trend will be short-lived, lasting about another 18 months.

Two years ago such skills were not highly valued.

Similar schemes are being put into place in most big service companies around the world.

More than 100 people are likely to be invited to join the "golden handcuffs" team.

Altogether, hundreds of people are working on Y2K issues at least part of the time.

Mr Smith could not say how many man-hours were going into the effort, but says it is a significant initiative for EDS and "cranking up all the time".

Work is on target, and EDS is "working diligently with commercial and government customers to define roles and responsibilities. In some areas we have it, in other areas we do not".

EDS hopes to have all internal systems tested and Y2K-compliant by the first quarter of next year, "so we have some time to react if there are problems".

Some customer situations could see EDS working to a later date.

The Department of Social Welfare's benefit payment system redevelopment, in which EDS is involved, has a targeted completion date of September next year.

Asked if that was not cutting it a bit fine on the Y2K issue, Mr Smith declined to comment in detail but says that EDS is not responsible for all aspects of that project.

EDS has a Year 2000 Renovation Centre in Adelaide and can call on that centre if it needs extra help, Mr Smith says. It has already used it for some software testing.

 Copyright, Wellington Newspapers Limited 1998, All rights reserved.

I have just about lost count of the postings to this forum which, in one

form or another, acknowledge the adage that Gold is now "dead".

To borrow a famous phrase: "The reports of ( Gold's ) death are premature". They are also mistaken.

As many posters here know, I head up the Gold commentary page at The Privateer website with the phrase: "Gold is the POLITICAL metal. In the true sense of the phrase, its price is 'governed'."

Examine the genesis of the Asian Crisis since it was first noticed in July 1997. You will see that the peaks of the crisis were directly proportional to the size of the Gold price fall in $US terms. Gold fell sharply in July, when the Thai Baht collapsed. It fell below $US 300 when South Korea hovered inches from bankruptcy in Nov/Dec. 1997.

It has now gone from $US 314 to $US 284 since late April, while the Japanese Yen collapsed and South Korea and Hong Kong went to the wall.

The governing mechanism ( Gold loans, forward selling, Gold leasing, threats of Central Bank sales ) is well known here. The fact that the $US Gold price has been actively manipulated since the early 1960s should be equally well known. So too should the fact that control has only been lost once, for about a three month period between October 1979 and January 1980.

Since then, the U.S. has increased its funded debt by a factor of nearly 6 and has progressed from being the world's greatest creditor nation to the world's greatest debtor nation. The Dollar has gone from 260 Yen in 1985 to 80 Yen in 1995 to its present level of about 146 Yen. Gold has gyrated from just over $US 500 to just under $US 300.

We are now watching the culmination of the whole process of increasing financial chaos which forms the history of the past two decades. Asia, that part of the world which exploded into economic prominence and then economic pre-eminence over those same two decades, has now collapsed.

The Asian captains of industry, who rose to huge wealth, have now seen their fortunes disintegrate. They are attempting to rescue what they can, and all of this capital is flowing in a huge wave into the Dollar and into Treasury bonds.

The reason that it is NOT flowing into Gold - yet - is achingly simple. These men are not blind. They have seen the price manipulation of Gold. They know that Gold represents the biggest threat of all to the continued pre-eminence of the Dollar. Besides, many of them have to have Dollars, to service debt and to purchase the materials and goods they must have if their businesses are to continue to function at all.

We have now reached the end game, a situation unprecedented since the Dollar achieved global pre-eminence at the end of WWII, in which the U.S. bond market is booming while the stock market falls with ever greater speed. That, by all the factual data of post war financial markets, is a dead set contradiction.

To paraphrase a very famous lady: "By the essence and nature of existence, contradictions cannot exist. If you find in inconceivable that the fiat currency and debt paper of the worlds' greatest debtor is being bought with a frenzy, while the metal which has been used as money for thousands of years gathers dust, seemingly spurned by all, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.

While you're at it, watch US long bond yields.

PS, I've just put up P&F charts of the Dow and the Nikkei at The Privateer website. I've included a chart of the Nikkei as it was when it topped out in 1989-90. The comparison with the present chart of the Dow is very interesting indeed.

It has been a most disappointing span of time for goldbugs.
The usual reasons: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ad infinitum.
This is truly the new paradigm.
I have learned a great deal from the posters here, since I dived headlong into the gold equities market.
Could it be that the masses ( gee, I hate that term ) , have been so far removed from the times of even semi-backed currencies, that there is no historical reference anymore?
I will ride my goldstocks a while longer. I bought in Dec 97 - Jan 98. It's easier for me than many hardcore types here.
Lately, there have been some persuasive posts about silver's fundamentals. The paeon to Warren Buffet about his silver puchase was particularly compelling. Especially the vast short position in Argentum.
Do you, as a silver long ( or, at least an interested party ) , have any thoughts about the fundamentals of the tarnishing white?


If you observe that people make calls that are foolish, ( shortsqueeze ) , or are just contrary to your views, be civil.
There have been plenty of acid comments here that are sharp and humorous.
I am sure that you can do better, judging from your writings here, than the lackluster boogerflings of last night. You are right about Brinker.

Clone--Just going on past history. Every time I anticipate fireworks, it's DUD city. More seriously, I am in the camp that believes a meltdown in paper is coming and Gold EVENTUALLY will soar. The downside is that the world will be a worse place for everyone, including Gold believers. I'd say mid to late '99 at the latest for the meltdown in Europe/US/Oz/NZ, but the potential is there now. Good luck.

Either very late tonight or latest tomorrow a report entitled
"JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES RUMORED" will be posted at the
G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E website. Our correspondant could not be more \
definite about the time. But reas assured I will advise when it comes in - as it should be verrrrrry interrrrresting.

...a catchword that you so often employ without a single scintilla of true understanding of its definition.

It means a goverment of corporations or private enterprise controlled by a central government.

It is the current state of America...a government in cahoots with big business and big media, running up markets to ridiculous heights in order to garner excessive profit, even at risk of undermining the health of the entire global economic system.

Remember Oct. '97? The financial WACO of this decade? A time when the government interfered with the normal progress of the markets to seek a natural equilibrium ( downward ) , such interference designed to protect the interests of favored corporations and favored power money interests. Arguments were employed to suggest the government was attempting to avoid a financial meltdown and protect the "little guy's" interests...nonsense.

It was in the little guy's interests to have the markets correct properly then...tough medicine yet a survivable correction. Now unfortunately, the average American, believing you can never lose money in the stock market because government will always step in and protect you, is in well over his head.

The same thing is happening again today as, encouraged by government, big media, and big corporations, the little investor is diving full speed into the deep waters of the bond market.

Yet, the next downturn in the markets will likely be ruinous.

So, it is up to the anti-fascists to enlighten the general public as to the hard lessons learned in Korea and Thailand.

The Asians did not line up to turn in their next-to-worthless stocks, bonds, or currency. They lined up to turn in gold, the only true repository of value during economic crisis.

Thanks.

F*

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

Liberty, LGB,Farfel , Was it RJ? I forget I don't want to scroll through all that again. I am perfect .I can pee farther. I have more knowledge than all of them.You see nobody really cares. As my 12 year old niece said " it isn't real". "It's make believe". Yes folks if you become technoligized enough you lose your sensitivity and you just really don't believe those are real people out there and you hurt their feelings or just go to the Mall and blow them all away. It is just interactive technology. Well boys just so you know there are some real people out here and we want to help each other I cordially invite you to make your calls. Go ahead... Make my reality!

Answer for 10 points....
1/ The price of gold per ounce on Wed. July 1.1998
2/ The level of the Dow Jones Industrials on July 1.1998

Pistols at ten paces is also an option.Any seconders? ( Pun intended )

Mine is Gold 305 U.S.and the Dow 8150.

Who doesn't have a life and will keep score. Could we e-mail someone?

p.s. Lighten up.Go Gold!

It does not take a rocket scientist!

Talks hit snag in one of two GM Michigan strikes

DETROIT ( Reuters ) - Union officials at one of two General Motors Corp. parts plant hit by strikes stormed out of negotiations Monday, claiming the company made disparaging remarks about striking workers.

In the unusually public airing of bargaining table dissent, Local 659 officials said they were enraged when GM officials ridiculed the $150-a-week strike pay that workers are receiving.

"Their attitude is one of arrogance," Local 659 President Duane Zuckschwerdt said after talks broke off.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/AUTOS-GM.html

Re: Your 19:44 post. You know, after thinking about it just a little, I have come to the conclusion that you are right about hyping gold AND silver

professionally. I am surprised that the WGC declined your suggestion. After all, the ANTI- gold crowd demeans and villifies gold at every opportunity, while extolling paper and equities as the new age road to prosperity.

The vast majority of people out there NEVER hear gold lauded for its virtues of intrinsic value and wealth preservation in uncertain economic times. The other side of economic reality is rarely exposed. It's a matter of education. Exactly what does the WGC DO with its budget? If it were a matter of funds for promotion and advertising the PM's, I would make a contribution if I had some assurance the promotion was done effectively across a wide spectrum.

Most gold bugs assume everybody else KNOWS the attributes of gold and silver and their role in the economic marketplace. That may have been true forty years ago, but it isn't now. Think how many younger people have never even SEEN a silver dollar, or a half dollar or a quarter, much less a real GOLD coin? REAL MONEY! The answer: Not many.

I wonder if it would be worth a try to approach the WGC again? That would be on your playground. Just a thought.

Good post Farfel,, Isn't that also Oligarchy.. And did you mean 87?... I think they should have let nature take it's course there. IMHO, we have avoided what Oct. 87 was telling us since then...

rb

Liberty,
How typical of you. Are you sure you are engineer? Jumping to conclusions before thinking at least a bit?! And labeling me Pompous Ass as in "I'll say this for you Miro, you give the words "Pompous Ass" new meaning."?

Well, it's your company. I did not have to anything else but go to your company home page. I pulled that description right from your company's "career opportunities":

http://www.ssloral.com/hr/jobs/jobs980605.html#RTFToC57

Now, cool down and read. No, you are not doing defense work, because your commercial orientation and foreign association does not qualify you for that. However, you are in a satellite business and communication. This makes you a high tech company and your technology IS essential for the US and this technology is of high interest to foreign military Your company know-how falls under category of "no way" to let it out to our adversaries. Just like some high power computing can not be exported because it can be used to enhance the military capabilities of your enemy. To protect it you need some Top Secret/SSBI clearances, and your business practices will be under US Gov and Intelligence scrutiny. Without it you would not be able to do work you are doing.

That's all. I was challenging your statement "we don't have any such people"

Your Pompous Ass - Miro

I agree friend, manipulation is what controls the Gold price in terms of the USD. The farther this game is played, the more sudden and dramatic the turn will be. Gold is the cheapest and most reliable insurance policy !

I LIKE your rationale, even if you don't need it, because it is my rationale
also. I couldn't resist the implied senario from "Treasure of the Sierra Madre", one of my all time favorite movies.

Also, what is the "other" PMs you think are a good buy?

1 July __98,
Au 298.50 up 2.50
SP1000 1001.00

I like yours better though.- Much better.



Usually people who call other people "Fascists", have a strong predilection for Fascism.

...the price of gold will be higher by the summer.

How's that for a prognostication?

Thanks.

F*

...the DOW will move to a different number by Summer.

Thanks.

F*

Gee Whiz, farfel, how can you sleep at night with a prediction like that? Can't you equivocate a little, in case you're wrong? Just trying to protect your topknot; so many seem to be after it.

Ahh ... would you mind getting me another beer from the fridge.

GO stand up to the GREEDY CEO AND MGMT BASTARDS. Let em move to MEXICO and we will send union dues to the rebels to blow up the plants if they dont give the workers appropriate pay. GO UNIONS CRIPPLE PRODUCTION FOR THE RIGHTS OF THE AVERAGE AMERICAN. UNION YES! FDR YES! chainsaw dunlap and other private enterprise destroyers of freedom NO!

Since he says the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over, and the bandwidth expenditure is farfel's blank check, and actual information about the markets has no place hereabouts, lets just repost farfels yammering forever.

Yes. Lets

4/15

RJ capitulated to a powerful pro-gold polemic which he simply could not defeat. You understand the distinction? Bottom line: his retreat is a positive sign as predominant gold bear logic and arguments fall apart in the face of a New Gold Paradigm..

You see, when people make statements that you perceive will profoundly undermine your well-being, your respect, your entire perspective on life, then the normal reaction is confrontation...often heatedly at first...but over time, one learns to cast away the emotional handicap and rely entirely on pure, scintillating logical analysis.

To APH 3/27/98

However, I do resent "technicians" like APH who exhibit a negative bias against gold & silver. They are simply gold shorts masquerading as omniscient soothsayers. As I discussed in previous posts, the problem with the gold shorts such as APH is they prey on the significant insecurities of PM investors accumulated over years of watching their investments perform a slow dive..

.So, forgive me if I speak out and declare the errors of negative PM prognosticators...as far as I am concerned, APH is failing to call a significant upward turn in PM's. Moreover, since I am a resolute long in PM's, his ilk are harming my ability to gain profit in this world. Ergo, they are my enemies and certainly the enemies of many Kitco posters who believe in Au and Ag

( @ALL...IN RJ'S 04:47, YOU CAN NOW SEE... ) ID#340302:

...evidence of compromise, concessions, and doubt. He is weakening in his beliefs because he knows he is wrong. Once he admits fully to his erroneous beliefs, then he will join the great gold bull. In other words, your friend APH has an "Amen Gallery" on this Kitco forum. He does not discern the patterns of the market...he affects them because sheep like you think he is the incarnation of Jesus Christ.

3/29/98

However, in a cumulative sense, I feel certain that Kitco has an effect on the markets. If the forum supplies continuously negative energy, then there are enough interlopers and visitors to this forum where various tidbits of such info will be picked up and disseminated broadly.

And:

However, as I said in previous posts, I do not believe we are entering a deflation. More than likely, we are witnessing the first stage of a stagflation... ( how many dozens of times has he repeated that phrase? Yet he repeats it still. Like his childish chant, he has one tune and bleats it endlessly )

3/30/98

No, Mr. RJ, you are the ostrich with its head buried in the sand. Start reading some of these erudite Kitco posts instead of basking in the narcissistic glow of your own automatic-pilot Bullspeak.

RJ...Oh, poor, poor agitated gold shorter, Wall Street Bull and "America, love it or leave it" chauvinist.

RJ, the people who no longer care about facts are you and your Wall Street Bull Mania buddies.. ( I guess he never paid attention to the fact that I trade metals for a living. His knee jerk reaction to anyone who disagrees with him is an automatic label. This is not thinking, this is reacting )

3/31/98

TYOUNG...if you want your gold & gold stocks now then I am afraid you are going to have to jump in and pay the full price. There are no more bargains to be had in this gold market. Most people holding gold today are die-hard gold chauvinists or new investors. If you are waiting for desperation amongst current gold investors in order to snatch up a bargain, I think you might find yourself waiting a long time. Today's gold investors have already survived their desperation phase. They are hardened by their journey through hell. Conversely, Dow & Nasdaq investors have never really experienced such a phase in many years. When their desperation phase arrives, it will be a frightful sight indeed.

At least, that's IMHUDO ( In My Humble Unemployed Drunken Opinion )

4/1/98

...nice to see you use my actual handle, FARFEL, instead of some silly, juvenile epithet.

4/2/98 - The guy who does not call markets called:

Silver should reach at least 9.00 an ounce by year end.

4/3/98

I sincerely doubt you will ever see gold at 280 again IMHO.

And this non sequitur:

I honestly believe that, at this point, there is considerably greater upside risk than downside risk to holding gold.

Yet he blasted me for the post I made on 3/27/98

I simply think gold will retest the lows. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything, points to 280. Maybe a little limp up to 310 - 315, but 280 - 285 will happen before June. The only people seeing bulls in the near term future for gold are those that wish them there.

I guess I missed that one by one week, yes?

As for all of you who say this is a fight over beliefs, it seems you are right. I offer analysis of the market and farfel attacks the beliefs. I was wrong in my timing on platinum, but for all the right reasons, but it is gold that farfel wants to discuss, at least that is what he posted earlier. Lets see gold went to EXACTLY 315 and closed today at 284. All farfel ever says is buy it now - just like he did at 315.

These are just tidbits, but oh what a mother-load they uncovered. I gleefully await the opportunity to post em all.

Indeedy

Awaaay........ tocapitulatetoapowerfulprogoldpolemic

I've read all those comments before.
Are you trying to say that they are worth reading again???
Surely not - Pleeeeaaassseee

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LGB
You sound more like the person you are dissin.
Look in a mirror
Weird huh???
How much we take on the caracter we despise when we seek to attack them???

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gone to seek a sunnier abode.

Sorry, if there is news of a BOJ gold purchase I didn't find it during my 10 minute cursory search of their website. Lots of other good info though. http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm

Every time I try to talk about the markets, F boy shouts me down with his endlessly repetitive rhetoric. If it is too noisy hereabouts, tell him to shut up. Even when I leave town this child sneaks back in to throw jabs.

This is not starting over. It never ended. You want peace? Then police yourselves and dont let this little man ruin the forum for the rest. I disagree with many here, yet some of those would call me friend. It is not beliefs or opinions, it is style. That arrogant, condescending, pompous twit came at me relentlessly and silence issued forth from the collected Kitco masses ( save a few ) . So when I respond in full dress gear for a little clean up ops, everybody cries, "Woe unto Kitco".

As long as this worm continues his attacks, I will wipe up the floor with him.

Endless mantras or real world info

Your call

...back in the Sixties, "THE THOUGHTS OF CHAIRMAN MAO."

Since you seem so fixated on my various posts over the past year, how about compiling all my thoughts into a book and finding me a publisher?

I'll give you 5% of the gross.

"THE THOUGHTS OF FARFEL."

Sounds pretty good, huh?

Thanks.

F*

Stand back...Stand back ...Pleeze! It's all just water...water moving down the river ...under the bridge and out to sea....

Had an epiphany the other day. An orgasm of the psyche, so to speak. Was standing in line at the store the other day, waiting to purchase Golden Graham cereal, Gold Medal flour, Golden Grain bread, and other Y2K supplies. A Golden haired beauty in very short Gold colored shorts was standing in front of me. It was then the epiphany struck--the Gold bottom is in sight! Was going to make clever small talk such as, "The Gold bears are going to lose their shorts, ha ha." It was probably well that I didn't.

...it is actually impossible to shout on an internet forum.

You see, the way it works is people post information via the written word.

Writing doesn't shout.

Thanks.

F*

one tends to see trends long before the street does,as the article says the trend over the last year is a 58% increase over melt,this proves one of two things,a lot of collectors have entered the market,the available supply has shrunk and holders are not selling....I go with the latter......if I could get certified MS 60 Saints,which I can't they would retail $495.00........MS 61 ....$510.00 not many out there without spots.....the only stuff I have right now MS 62 Saints.....they run $520.00......in 89 these were $900.00 coins.......this is a tortoise and hare story....we get the last YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA

How do you take down a currency?
Well, that depends on what your situation is.

( 1 ) You can legislate it out of existence ( the Jamaica Accords declared gold dead )

( 2 ) You can sell it to death

( 3 ) You can make it into a balloon and inflate it unto death.

What you do depends on what you need to get accomplished.

Now, for the sake of discussion, let's suppose that ( a ) you've got a LOT of this currency on hand, and-not to make too fine a point of it,
( b ) scores to settle, battles to wage, victories to win.

What to do? This is a WHALE of a currency, remember, and you hold a WHALE of a lot of it: beaching is going to require subtly to say the least. And, of course, if you can turn a shekel or two, so much the better!

Do you happen to remember Ehrlich's FT saga in November/December of 1997? Dealing with the Asian ( fictional, but of COURSE ) effort to have retribution on the West by aborting the Euro? They didn't contemplate taking down the dollar because the dollar was too darn BIG.

Too big to drive DOWN maybe ( and driving it down would be fundamentally stupid--cutting off your nose to spite your face. )

You want subtly, patience and guile as your henchmen; and like all thinking perpetrators, you need a 'story'. Beginning to recognize a 'Happening'? {:- )

The sorry fact is, there are zero thoughts behind anything you say. It is all rubber stamped reactionism. When you do get a thought, let us know, we will be surprised but probably still bored.

Uh Huh

Perhaps I missed your reply to my last challenging post telling how as a good socialist you go out every day to volunteer at the local soup kitchens, take in the homeless, provide pro bono professional services to manage SSI checks for chronic schizophrenics, volunteer to pick up trash, get out in the hot sun to help people fix their roofs, act as a sitter for the elderly, et cetera. IMHO

As for all your union hype, its just horse manure. I was raised by a 30 year rank and file union member and can spot such lies a mile away. The unions are run by rich fat cat lawyers. IMHO

.

You are weak and getting weaker

I smell it

shattered yet. That's why we are so fiesty.
Why didn't you just say so? Let me tell you.. it's a bit like when you are driving through Richmond in your Beemer and you get lost and you pull off the throughway into the wrong part of town and you run out of gas and...well you can imagine.

...very content...very peaceful...very centered.

Watching the world unfold as one would expect. My wife is great too and says, "Hello."

Thanks.

F*

P.S. I thought that cruise of yours would mellow you out. What happened?

For those that have asked me, on these pages or through e-mail, to post my opinion of market direction or current info on this forum:

Sorry. It just ain't worth it.

Silence this clown first or have him forever

But not I

It will be like that

Could you guys give a brief synopsis of your differences for the layman? Sometimes you sound like you're arguing cladist theories.

As a radical chic dominated culture in the 60s/ so now dominates a kind of capitalist chic today. ( RUSH ETCET ) You can hardly go anywhere without people commenting on stk mkt gains. This is good but inhibits class conciousness. Most of these people provide the labor and liquidity to create the profits and most are for their efforts downsized to fill the pockets of greedy stk option crazed managers and execs. Chainsaw AL DUNLAP has done more for progressives than the greedy bastard could imagine. Sunbeam fired him but did they rehire the workers ..NO ..a lesson not fully learned. BAD service jobs yes GOOD unionized JOBS NO. The Lie continues.

can't get their sh*t together to do some PR to counter the noise coming from the equity pushers. They get history on their side, everything but God Himself. What do the equity pushers have but a long track record of creating speculative bubbles that destroy economies? Are the PM dudes just stupid, or what?
-EJ

Look for a rally soon. Desperation at the bottom. We have seen bail outs. It's happening. Go Gold!

...there is a great deal of intelligence behind all that rage...

Please keep posting.

Thanks.

F*

I called your company today to buy some PM .
Your receptionist is most pleasant, and has a beautiful telephone voice.
Your company's sales representative "Rod" was cordial and helpful.

I am glad that I waited to buy more though. Apparently you are saying that your potential customers are rubes at best, and assholes on average.
When you find that the PM's are worth considering again please give me a call. gales@execpc.com

My favorite was a 1986 Ford LTD Crown Vic used NH State unmarked police car. Very fast, did curbs at 40, a true right-of-way car, totally indestructable. Paid $800 and got two years out of it. Maybe I'll get another.
-EJ

Farfel ruins this forum with his attempts to stifle any opinion that does not agree with his own

This forum is loosing its usefulness

It is dying

Dollar has weakened against all major currencies, -1.05 yens and -.0066 pfennings. Nikkei has cut its losses, gold is down -05 as opposed to -.60 an hour ago and HK has opened positive.

Opening a cold Gold lager beer now. Hell, here goes my prediction--Gold 301 spot, Dow 8400 July 1st. You in Virginia?

...only Mr. Bart Kitner has that power.

You are always free to post any and all of your thoughts. I have NO power to prevent you.

Again, I must say I find many of your thoughts to be highly interesting.

Thanks.

F*

Now that sounds like a fine set of wheels! Remember the Blues Brothers? "it's got a cop motor, cop tires..." Might get me a mid 70's Olds 88 or buick 98.

Yes I agree, as do many others.

Peace will regain the day some day soon I hope.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On to better things.
I posted this link and was surprised it drew no comment.
http://www.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=gao&docid=f:ai98072.txt

No one must have read it or looked at it!!!!
You need to print it out and read it twice and let the info sink in.
This would have to be the most profiound article I have seen on Y2k.
All you people who live in the US. NEED TO READ THIS REPORT.

I am not trying to scaremonger you all but let you make up your own minds.
From the Y2k experts on this forum to those who think Y2k won't effect them.

*** Read what your Gov't is talking about.***

Read between the lines on what they are saying in this report.
Think of how much of what they are saying will impact all businesses.

I have always been concerned Y2k
But after reading and rereading this article.
I feel like the washing has been hung up on the line.
We can all see the enormity and complexity confronting us all.

I am not so concerned.
I don't live in the USA.
I feel pitty for those that do and think Y2k is bunk.
You guys are in for one hell of a shake up.

After reading that report I would be looking for a holiday OS.

I would be interested in hearing opinion from others of nous
Who have had a good look at this article.
No good glossing over it - you'll still be in the dark.

At least that is the way it struck me.

LOOK and THINK - it's your reality you're living in.

Check your currency data from 93, 94they almost lost it, it was a VERY near thing.

But from 95 forward it has been a Class A Marching Band. Tight formation, well rehearsed, instruments gleaming, trousers creased. They were proud, reasonably so. Gonna make it, we're going to make it. The systems gonna make it, we're going to have a tabula rasa, we can start all over again! Then Indonesia/CalTex and the trend/momentum and the band hit the fan

The problem is you see, for the Euro to make-it, the dollar AND gold have GOT to stay within a prescribed range. Too much above, too much below and all is vulnerable, all is at the fracture point. So Jake's scenario ( a tad revised to accommodate what passes for 'real' life ) is being played out before our disbelieving eyes.

Japan has devalued her currency, capital is flowing out, the Nikkei is at a level expected to make most banks insolvent, interest rates cannot be raised without bankrupting many second tier companies, and the second largest economy is now declared to be in recession.

Political consequences are now following economic tradgedy. Witness South Korea and Indonesia. What of China and the devaluation of men's suits ( maybe this story is secretly anti-gold ) ? What of Chinese devaluation?

To think that the deflationary forces will stay off the shores of the United States is folly. There is global overproduction of EVERYTHING. This is the problem with the inflation of global money supply where it does not find it's way to consumer spending and inflation. Too much investment relative to consumption forces overproduction, investment bubbles, and capital investment oversaturation. These all lead to deflation in the end.

Gold as money will hold up well as money supply shrinks and credit dries up. As a liquid asset in deflationary times, its buying power will increase relative to paper money. If the stock market is coming down, the dollar is coming down, bankruptcies ( personal, corporate, and derivitive ) are drying up credit, interest rates and inflation rise with repatriation of overseas money, GOLD will prove a good thing to own.

As to RJ and FARFEL, these are two junkyard dogs fighting over the bone of mavenism. Farfel is correct in the long run, RJ is possibly correct in the short run. There is less conflict with their messages as with their ego's.

Do you have a single post from me to back up your assertion? Where do I denigrate buyers of PMs?

Farfel is jerk, this does not make the world so. You want some metals, feel free to call and ask for ANYBODY but me if you do not like the truth spoken. If you want to do business with someone who is bullied and browbeat, feel free. I walk my own road.

My clients who read this forum agree that the F thingie has gone too far. They want him to shut up. I get e-mails from lurkers who want him to shut up. I am the recipient of these attacks from an insecure pile of bombast. I stopped posting, the weasel kept it up. I go out of the country, the rodent picks as the subject of his first post for weeks to insult me and others.

Perhaps you should buy your metal from Bart to support the forum, yes?

It will need support

Is the Yen rebound helping our boys.

...I haven't heard that one in a while....mavenism.

Yet, the more you learn, the less you really know, right?

Thanks.

F*

Only fools are positive...are you sure?...I am positive!

My how we all get testy when prices drop and money...on paper...is lost. Read the rules on netiquette smedequette or maybe, just maybe, post only that which you could have said at your parents supper table when you were a youngster.

Tis easy to be unkind and without manners. Takes an adult to be civil...try this on for size for a while.

PMSP...Spot$283...wait one day...go if no purple on the frames.

Tom

Farfel isn't ruining this forum. I recall that he announced his intentions as a cheerleader. He said that he was going to "spin" in a contrary way. Bad news for gold, buy more. It was an entertaining counterpoint to all of the BS from the stockbrokers.
My complaint about his posting is the stuff about the short squeeze nonsense.
Rumour or wishful thinking should be noted as such.
I would like your take on gold, in our "new situation".
I realise that there is ( are ) ,literally tons of it out there.
With the bad moon a'risin, where would you suggest going when the paper currencies go the way of all of the Asian paper?
You know that a large portion of this audience is looking for an experienced hand at presevervation of what they have earned.

I just spent a week traveling with the largest seller of gold bullion coins in the world and the chief global representitive of the oldest mint on earth.

Who has farfel gleened his reseach from?

By his own words, a guy at a cocktail party.

Let's get some perspective here.

Yes, let's

Which currencies???

Illuminate me please??

Which currencies???

The Truth is RJ your dying not the thread. Come on boy, get out there and fight !

...friend of mine over in Hollyweird.

Please do not leave this forum. You provide much helpful info pertaining to the intricacies of the metals trade ( no sarcasm intended ) .

You are a star in the making, I am sure.

Thanks.

Your friend,

F*

( aka "the weasel" aka "the jerk" )

TOKYO, June 16 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Japan said on Tuesday in its monthly report that final demand in Japan remained weak and output was continuing to fall, adding that as a result jobs and income conditions had recently worsened greatly.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/final_dema_1.html

The Nikkei scratches and claws its way back toward 15000 like a drowning man for his last breath. Will he make it? I haven't got the heart to bet on it.

-EJ

decided not to use Larry Williams' course materials, and aren't planning on going into commodities in the future, would you consider selling them to me? That would work out cheaper for me and let you de-junk something you won't use : ) You can e-mail me at: ross@sympatico.ca if you like.

- Steve

I am annoyed with myself that I wrote to you tonight.
BTW, I did send Bart a bit of money ( USD ) to support this site.
I was sort of loaded one night, and I suggested that we should pay a bit for the privelege.
I hold to my word, so I did it.
I have paid to read the posts here, 'cause it's worth it.

OTHERS FOLLOW......AWAY TO THE BAT CAVE ROBIN............

I've read lots of both your posts.Yes, Farfel has tunnel gold vision.The gold spot could drop in half and he could put a positive spin on it;or he would know the conspirators responsible for it. Notwithstanding,I enjoy the cheerleading.

RJ, you obviously have the higher perch. You know the metals better.You see more,and farther.Yes, he deserves it.His manners have been bad.You're right.Try to ignore him.Tell me the truth about gold.

Even if the news is not good! Thanks!

That is the pattern: to transform opinion "This forum is loosing its usefulness for me" into "This forum is loosing its usefulness. It is dying." -- implying it's loosing it's usefulness for almost all readers.

Well, it is not loosing it's usefulness for me, although I usually
skipp RJ as well as Farfel.

The gross inadequacy of RJ comments about Farfel makes me wonder:
What is RJ's agenda?

The only opinion I could have thought about and which withstood doubts is
this: RJ gets orders from his boss to control opinion on this forum.
And he fails to achieve it. That is why RJ is so inadequately rude.

I find only one big difference between "Professionals" ( as RJ advertises
himself ) and small boys ( like the majority of posters here -- me included ) .

Amatour can loses $10,000. Professional loses $1,000,000,000.

The more arrogance -- the bigger the loss. Is it not, RJ?

Today I tore up 3 more credit card offers, touting introductory rates between 4.9% and 6.5%. Friday I tore up one advertising 9.9% fixed rate. And I'm just your average Mer'kan consumer, a.k.a. Joe Sixpack. So if you multiply my experiance by 50,000,000 they're going to keep the inflation going for at least a few more months just on the strength of consumer credit. Maybe next year will be deflation after the elections and just in time to screw the lid on the coffin for DNC hopes to elect Al Gore? IMHO

BTW, themissing link, if you're reading this, my supplier doesn't have alloy grain to 'roll your own' 22k. Will the 18k alloy metal be off color if used in 2/24 parts with 22/24 parts gold?

it's on its way down again. It closed on Mon. at 14822, and the last real-time update I got was 14731. Tue. trading will be over very soon ( it's early afternoon over there ) so I doubt that it will even get back to yesterday's close, let alone 15000.

They keep sliding closer and closer to the edge . . .

- Steve

IN a straight and simple manner tell us your short term opinion on Gold as well how you think the Euro will be backed. Thankyou for your insight in advance

interviewed, he was asked if this 200 point was a good buying opportunity.. ( The buy the dip theory ) , To my utter shock he said " Its a great opportunity to buy BONDS" !!! He totally sidestepped the question and started to talk about bonds and a declining interest rates..

PS - Who let the bear out of the cage?

Go Gold

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

That's pretty sobering stuff from the GAO. I've been watching mainstream coverage of the Y2K problem ever since I was first alerted to it on Kitco, about a year ago. It has gone from no coverage, to dismissal, to preictions of minor disruptions. Now MSNBC, CNN etc. are sounding downright worried. This has happened over the last 12 months. I would expect a continued progression to fear, outrage, and panic.

Interesting perspective of Japan's current economic woes from a "native" Austrian economist.

http://www.mises.org/journals/aen_wi97.htm

Gold
Dumb metal
Heavy as lead,
only yellow
Common
Valued only in the eyes
and hearts of men
Who do not have it
Whereas paper money...
is everywhere
Not precious
More common than all the leaves
on all dead trees in Rome
Blowing away
in the winds of change

-EJ

This from my post of 3/27/98 before farfel began his crusade against me:

"I have no serious argument as to the direction with our far flung fellow. Gentlemen may disagree. To find who was right, just count the $ at the end. The rest is obvious. My bone of contention was his post of all these "Buyers" of gold, when some are sellers, and some - China and Russia - are impossible to quantify."

OK -

Now, this is not an attack on beliefs, it is a correction of farfels purported "facts". Is calling attention to a mistake, stated as absolute fact, not a function of this forum? Should those who know better let the rest here be misguided by errors? Farfels posts are rife with mistakes like the "short squeeze", but I have chosen to not yet post them. I too would like this to end, but it will not as long as he continues to attack and shout people down.

If I were to post the collected mistakes, the laughing would be heard all the way to Bel-Air where this buying more fellow claims to live. Believe it or not, this is an act of compassion. He could never live the humiliation down. By the way, farfels contention that the Russians were buying gold has been proven by history to be made at the EXACT time they were selling gold. Another boner for the F star thingie boy.

For the last time. It is not direction, short term, or long term outlook that is the issue. It is farfels shouting down all who do not agree and his constant recitation of factual errors.

If this continues, this forum will die

What use would it be?

Recipes and guns and YK2 are all fine and dandy

But a gold forum needs to have contributors who understand gold

There are less and less to be found here

A process of terminal entropy

With little of value left

Sigh

I echo your concerns about Y2k.

PMF: In fact I believe that Y2k *is* the trigger, and it's why I'm long physical for the long haul ( strong hands ) .

Brief Background:

I began with autocoder/assembler/fortran 34 yrs ago. Then COBOL when it started. Today am owner of a vertical application for IBM Midrange

for Petroleum Traders. We're in the middle of our own Y2k project. Coding 98.3% complete. Testing starts July ( None too soon I might add ) .

For us, with the original developers still on board, it's been less of a problem than with those folks who have to remediate other's code. And since we've subscribed to the "surgical team" approach as espoused by Brooks, our top talent actually touches code, rather than being promoted to Senior, and letting "juniors" touch the code. Our coding discipline was and has been strong, and we've maintained the application with the 15 years of changes in the industry.

I am very concerned about what others who aren't in as good a shape as we are. I've spent many evenings/nights keeping "the beast" alive, all unbeknownst to the users, who, if you asked would say "Problem? There've been no problems." I know how fragile the facade we DP people keep up is. Problem: The users don't really want to know. They just want it to run. Problem: There just isn't enough time to find and fix it all.

I've tried the "Paul Revere" route. Even though my friends know that I am a "smart guy", and have been "into' computers for decades, they still say "I'm not so sure". At this point, I say nothing, except to tell them what I'm doing, if they ask. What will be will be. There will be no spinning a fine tale on 1/1/2000, we will know if we were successful. I have strong doubt.

As to non-DP people? They can't possibly know. They think that because they have written an Excel Macro, that they understand programming, and therefore ought to be able to "figure it out". Only when you've banged your head against a piece of code for hours upon hours, and it STILL doesn't run, only after you get to a point when you realize what you are trying to do MAY not even work, when you hit the point where you say "Oh Sh*t" when you realize that the whole company will be down unless you get it fixed, and you've done it for years, and you've hired and fired bunches of programmers ( all primadonnas as a friend of mine likes to say ) , and see just how many ways of thinking about solving problems people come up with, and commit to code, can you even have enough background to comment rationally on the scope of the problem.

But, everyone is entitled to their opinion, and they like to think that their opinion should carry equal weight. Such is life.

I don't want to debate Y2k with anyone. I'm not interested. If what I post here has value for you, that's great. If you disagree, that's great too.

Right on! This board is becoming very weary...regards

I live in a sandy desert and all I see are butts and feet!

.

I am shaking my head in amazement.

My boss is the largest dealer of gold in the world, we would make a fortune if gold would take off. I would do flips in the air. We would all shout for joy.

But until then, I will call it as I see it.

Seeing that that is the way it is

I see it well, yes?

Besides, I challenge anybody to be more "inadequately rude". I was taught that in the army, by "professionals".

And who is trying to control opinion on this group?

Farfel propagandizes, I report.

Goebbles would vote for farfel

Yes, he would

thanks for the link.

I saved that post and will e mail to my friends. Priceless and invaluable report from the frontline.

"Besides, I challenge anybody to be more "inadequately rude". I was taught that in the army, by "professionals""

You might be right putting those army "professionals" in quotes:
Hollyfield won against that rude ear-biting guy.
The most rude solders - Japanese -- were defeated badly.

By the way, if your boss is as big as you say, he will try to push
prices lower -- "Buy low,..." -- would he not?

Go to http://www.amazon.com and order:

Practical Casting by Tim McCreight

For $15. You will be very happy.

The 18K alloy will work as a 22K alloy. You cannot ruin the color of gold. It is all beautiful with a nice polish. Pre-mix your alloy and the gold with a stirring rod and pour into a big bowl of water to make pellets. If you do the mixing at the same time as your casting, the metal does not always mix completely.

Heat slowly and uniformly so as not to "burn" the alloy.

For all you speculators who have no idea what those of us on the demand side of gold supply and demand do with the metal, check out:

http://www.familyjeweler.com/manufacturing.htm

...remember, I announced a short squeeze IN THE WORKS....note those key three last words. I still believe that is the case based on discussions and correspondence I had some time ago with several people from the world of finance. The exact timing of the move...now I can't say.

As far as contentions made about Russia buying gold...that was based on info I culled from the World Gold Council some time ago. If it turns out to be wrong ( and I am not the guy compiles the figures ) , then take it up with them.

And, yet, even if my facts are not perfectly accurate, then I am no worse in my failures than many of our leading news organizations. For the past few years, much has been made about CB gold sales...with no attention to who was purchasing the gold. Only recently have we discovered that a good deal of this activity has been intra-central bank, with the media announcements seemingly designed to scare the market.

Again, I refer you to the recent REUTERS news announcement concerning a Belgian CB gold sale, later denied by the CB governor Vertaplaesee. That little canard succeeded in killing the gold rally at 315.

If you are so adamant about protecting the Truth, RJ, then why not rail against REUTERS for printing such a notable falsehood? Yet, after that false announcement, we heard no comment from you whatsoever offering a reproach to the lie.

In other words, why is your crusade for Truth aimed at only a pro-gold exponent like myself? Why don't you offer the balanced, even approach you trumpet and denounce the falsehoods against gold too?

Just a couple of innocent questions, RJ. Not personal attacks, OK?

Have a great night.

F*

If so, then CHA-CHING!

GCQ8 has just jumped a couple of bucks upward under volume.

Any news out there???

A young intern,hearing sobs from the Oval Office, went inside to see Hillary crying uncontrollably. "Whats the matter Mrs. Clinton?" she asked. "Oh its Bill, he's cut me down to 3 times a week". The intern laughed and said "Oh Mrs. Clinton, thats nothing, I know two girls he cut out completely"

Regardless of all of the discontent and lack of vigor some have on this thread, lets all just keep in mind that there is no such thing as a premature ejaculation.

"ALERT Trading desk Hong Kong spot gold $428.00 and climbing"

Where do you get this quote?
Would appriciate an URL.

Autocoder. Wow! Was that on the IBM 1401? Is my memory correct? Assembler and COBOL - was that possibly on the IBM7040 or IBM7090?

If so, my experience starting in 1965 paralleled yours, and your ideas on Y2K are mine as well. I have written many COBOL programs so complex that even I had problems understanding them a couple of weeks after they were done.

Thanks, Dave

.

Thanks for your valued imput.
There is a lot written in that GAO report.
There is a lot in your few words.
I really appreciate your comments
As I do the other *geeks* ( s'cuse me ) who post here.

Awareness is knowledge.
I know little of programing, I'm just a 'PC head'
But I appreciate the knowledge and opinion
That is coming to light.

I too, as you do, see changes around the corner.
Most don't want to see this far.
This is the only reason I have plugged Y2k here
As I believe that it will have cause and effect on the POG.
Otherwise y2k would have worn out it's welcome here.

Thanks again
And please stick out your neck occassionally
With more informative posts re Y2k.
They are worth their weight in gold.

Seems that farfel is allied with Herr Goebells. I'm too young to enjoy NAZI humour, but I did like George Gobel.
Why must you stoop to labeling those who you disagree with NAZI's .
Well, you didn't, but you inferred.
Get off the rag, man.
So, if I was so stupid to rise to your bait, and post my email address, are you going to spam me into oblivion?
I'm an asshole, so I will buy from someone else.
I like French coins, and I don't care for the likeness of Queen Elizabeth II, but, she is a decent woman, and I will take your advise, and stay away from your company. ---A few mounties will never hurt.
Go AEM, TVX, NGC, and the out of favor.

I doesn't matter what the price is when we buy it, ask percentages are pretty stable. We sell gold to people. We make money when we sell a LOT. That happens when the metal runs not when it falls for two years. I trade long and short. I have zero agenda, let it go where it will. I will tag along for the profits.

OK

posted another indpendent confirmation that
low grade $20 Saints in 60 have over the past
year has risen 58% of melt value.....this is the real physical gold market prices are based on supply and demand....what a concept

Did it ever happen to you, Y2000 guys, that some programs were initially wrutten to be Y2000 compliant? How would you estemate the proportions of
well written and badly written systems to justify your gloom?

I ask this question, because a database management system I co-wrote
in 1985 was written to be OK in 1/1/2000 from the very begining.

My regards to veterans of Autocoder.

J. Stack
So far, the unwinding has been ALL symptomatic of a DEflationary bear
market. And the fact that interest rates are acting well has every
professional on Wall Street convinced that it is NOT a real bear market.
That, and the light volume, have us worried that it just might really
snowball if overconfidence caves in to disbelief. What happens in Asia and
Japan tonight will undoubtedly play a big roll in tomorrow's action.
On the monetary side, we agree that bonds are acting well and could
stabilize the selling. Over on the technical side though, this is a VERY
sick market. Any rally attempts from here are likely to do so on extremely
poor breadth... and still see more stocks hitting new lows than new highs.
That is a striking characteristic of a bear market - so watch for it.
Don't be surprised if a rally attempt unfolds by Wednesday - again Asian
follow-through may be the key.
It's very early in this bear market. More importantly, it's quite oversold
near-term. If Asia stabilizes, then Wall Street WILL bounce.

ON GOLD: it is still an insurance policy as central banks are pressured
toward more aggressive re-inflation steps. Although gold stocks slipped a
notch, the metal held up very well today.

robnoel_A: just tried it, returned page:
Gods server is down try alternate site:
www.satan_princeofthe_earth.com
or
www.sellURsoul.org

Methinks "Alert" must be a little town in the Australian outback.

Goebells is primarily synonymous with propaganda. That he was a NAZI is incidental to the point I was making. You seem in an uneven mood this eve. I have not a clue as to what bait you say you rose to. Seems whenever F and I are working things out, somebody always takes it personally. This has nothing to do with you. Again, where have I ever denigrated purchasers of metals? I write one thing, you add your own meaning, and then ascribe it to me. Best to buy your gold from Bart. He has Mounties at a good price.

OK

hee-hee! I bit for just a second! :- )

Foreign and Domestic and plenty of them.
http://digistar.mb.ca/newspaper.htm
Plenty of reading, that's for sure!
Some may contain articles on gold from time to time.

Is there anything I need to know about TVX and Meridian? Like are they in danger of bankruptcy? I found a little more dry powder and I want to speculate a little outside of my mounting physical holdings.

steve@familyjeweler.com

I thinks it all depends on whether Joe Public blinks and starts phoning in fund redemptions as to how deep and long drawn out this will be.

As to Gold, it may bounce up a little on 'insurance' investing, but unless we hit a banking catastrophe can you see it going up in this scenario:

ie commodities sre getting massacared, and 'demand nations' are in big trouble.

views.

Thank you for the ( repeat of the ) DOD piece.

I printed out all 27 pages. It is an veritable treasure chest of
information.

My friend, I would really love to see you posting
some of your opinions on PM market in the near term.
May be tomorrow, yes?

It's a very, very interesting period of time, I smell
something may happen with a number of currencies within
3-4 months timeframe, and it will affect PM's...

Which way? You know the answer, this I know...

I have been monitoring this site for sometime. What is the point of the egotistical bantering? I thought this was a discussion of precious metals as a commodity or financial instrument.
I too just spent a week traveling with the largest seller of gold bullion coins in the world and the chief global representative of the oldest mint on earth.
I am a true gold bug. Yellow fever coarses through my veins. For the investor or the accumulator I believe gold makes sense at these prices.
The price of gold is low. Owning the metal as a potential financial instrument makes sense at these prices.
The exodus of funds from equities into metals will surely lead to higher gold prices.
The gentlemen who have expressed their opinions here are obviously very intelligent, but please remember they are still only opinions.
If I tell you Gold will go up tomorrow and it does am I better than you?, smarter?.. try luckier
You can be professional and not be arrogant.