Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:02 - ID#411112)
Open Loop....not trying to poach clients here....Joe Friday "Jast the facts" what does Pat do?:)


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:05 - ID#273227)
CompGeek -
"surgical team" - I've only seen one other place use this approach in developing software. Industrial Controllers at Fisher Rosemount - they are Y2K ready also. IMHO - its the best way to develope, but its not politically correct. Keep it up - at least someplace still cares if it works.

RJ - glad you finally agreed with me. This site has been going downhill, for over a year now. A few loud mouths arrived and drove most of the real traders away. It's typical today - those with the biggest mouths know the least. Those that know the most - leave.

Mr. Buckler - wise words you quote.

I'm still looking for someone to talk to about split openings - anyone?

Date: Sun Jun 14 1998 14:49

kuston ( Trader's Edge - Noble ) ID#273227:

Copyright  1998 kuston/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Sometime this week someone mentioned the book Trader's Edge by Noble, but I can't find the post now

and forgot who it was by. So I'll post this to everyone and hopefully this pool of talent can

straighten me out.

My confusion is with the split opening Noble mentions on pg. 63-65. In the example he uses he claims

"the June 21 closing range was 6.78-6.75. The next day's opeing range for july beans was 6.76 1/2 and

6.78" On the chart he provides I don't see the June 21 range. It looks like 6.78-6.70 to me. Which

would put the 7/22 opening out of the range. Does anyone agree with this?

His chart is 30 minute periods - its not clear to me if he is defining the opening as the whole 30

min. period or not. If he is - then the first period of 7/22 must be inside the last period of 7/21

to have a split opening? Once we have the split, the trading strategy kicks in once the break out of

the opening occurs. Fade the upper resistance zone and buy the lower support zone?

Anyone have any experience with this trading strategy? Has anyone tried it with daytrading stocks?

This is a great book - I've used the pivot formuals alot they work very well.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:10 - ID#215379)
NOw we will get the FACTS
20/20 is telling us why the ASEAN market is falling......

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:11 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-Orson Welles' humour
Heard on CSPAN. Sorry, I could not get the exact quote, and I've probably screwed up some of the details, but paraphrasing it:


Orson Welles was once the guest speaker at a civic center in North Dakota. But the night he was to speak, a blizzard hit the state almost preventing the great man from reaching the auditorium where he was scheduled to speak. However, the storm was so severe that it did prevent most of the other attendees from showing up, and when Welles approached the podium, there were only four people in the audience.

So he looks around at this big empty hall and says, "Since there is no one here to introduce me, let me introduce myself."

"My name is Orson Welles."

"I am a director."

"I am a writer."

"I am a producer."

"I'm a screenwriter, cinematographer and artist."

"I am an actor: I perform on the radio, the stage, and in the movies."

"I am a memoirist."

" . . . So many of me . . . so few of you . . ."


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:13 - ID#45173)
Nikkei trying to claw its way another 250 back to 15000 today
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...12:14AM...14851.05...+25.88...+0.17%

But it won't. It will end up from yesterday's close, tho.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:16 - ID#255151)
CompGeek, Miro
Would you mind a few questions from the audience? Miro is a Kitco poster who works on the Y2K frontlines too. I asked him a few months ago to rate the seriousness of Y2K on a 1 to 10 scale. I think his answer was somewhere around 7. I would like to know your opinion on this. Miro, would also like to hear your thoughts.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:18 - ID#401460)

June 16, 1998
00:07AM New York Time Timezone Equivalents

Change from New York close


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:18 - ID#373403)
We have come a long way people
Think about our living standard and knowledge base since we were cave people. In a short 5,000 years since Sumer ( Iraq ) we stand here today debating the price of a metal recycled since that time, over the internet. Not only that, we debate the relevence of the discussion.

Wow, it's mind blowing!

Lets not take ourselves so seriously. 76 years and POP!!! You're GONE!

It is now safe to turn off your computer.


Dave in CO
(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:25 - ID#229103)
Everything I've written since about 1980 has been compliant because it was on DEC VAX using binary date format instead of yymmdd on both index sequential files and RDB/VMS databases. Everything I wrote before 1980 was non-compliant but I don't know how much is still running since I've changed companies a few times since then. You're absolutely right that virtually all systems developed in recent years should be compliant. Should be.

The old systems, e.g., developed for 7040, converted to 360, ... , and still running, are the ones to worry about. As CompGeek said, the "art" of programming allowed much freedom and many variations of style which could make modifications very difficult.

And then there are the imbedded chips...

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:27 - ID#401460)

Silver 5090 +12

Oil 1156 -103

Kind of impressive, Gold is actually hanging in there pretty well!


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:29 - ID#401460)
Nikkei 225

Hong Kong +100 and some change.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:32 - ID#341312)
Sharefin-Thanks for the DOD url. I'll read it later when I have more time to fully absorb it. You post a great deal of Y2K news and links and I appreciate it. Also thanks to CompGeek and Open-loop for their contributions. I'm actually a little surprised that there isn't even more Y2K interest here since it poses a potentially fatal threat to the entire global fiat currency system. Unlike other possible calamities, Y2K WILL happen unless it is fixed and time is running out. When it becomes clear to most investors that the damage extends far beyond individual companies and that it strikes to the very lifeblood of the fiat currency concept, which is the ability to collect taxes to pay the interest on outstanding Treasuries, the precious metals mania that ensues will make the current Dow valuations seem like an exercise in restraint and prudence. They can't just create the money to compensate for the nonexistent tax revenues ( due to a nonexistent IRS ) since even the most casual investor will see that the "Emperor has no clothes". I plan on selling a bit of what I have to balance things out on paper and sit tight while bank computers around the world say the COBOL equivalent of "Abort, Retry, Fail?" over and over again while the depositors line up outside in droves. ( I've never actually seen a "drove" of people but I hear it's pretty big. ) Now THAT'S an image that should warm even the crustiest old goldbug's heart. Then the gold market will truly be "not as before" as will much of the rest of the world. It won't last, of course. A year or two later just might be an excellent time to reenter the stock market and, as Warren says, "Be greedy when others are fearful". Oh yes, and buy bullion now. Forget the stocks. You want assets that are tangible, not digital for obvious reasons.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:35 - ID#20137)
The price of copper keeps on dropping along with the warehouse stocks...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 15

Gold 1,016,872 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 85,937,795 - 687,138 troy ounces
Copper 75,295 - 874 short tons

finished sharply lower today, with one analyst explaining
that from a technical perspective, the market began setting
itself up for this tumble last week.
The July futures settled 210 points lower at 73.30
cents, bottoming out at a life-of-contract low of 72.60
"We've just finished a couple of weeks of consolidation
technically," said Tim Evans, senior commodities analyst at
Pegasus Econometrics. "The market was hinting at this going
back to Thursday's action, when we helped to set this up.
The market had a minor new high and closed at the lows for
the day. Then we got some follow-through on Friday which put
us within reach of the major supports.
"Really, this looks like a follow-through flush to the
downside," he said.
The market may have run out of time for any substantive
support on a seasonal basis, he pointed out.
"We've seen the last of the spring demand that is
usually associated with construction activity in the United
States," he said. The market is moving toward its
traditional period of "summer doldrums," at least from the
perspective of physical demand.
Evans said he sees copper's plunge as "just about 100%
technical" due to its timing. "The fundamentals are evolving
rather than making discrete leaps here," he said.
The next potential support for the July futures lies
around 72 to 72.10 cents, said Evans. A more significant
level might be 70 cents, followed by further support around
68.50 cents. If the market fell to the latter number, he
continued, it would be its weakest level since 1987.
"On the upside, you're going to have major problems
with all of this congestion we've left behind," he said.
Failed support of around 74.30 to 74.75 cents now
functions as resistance, with further selling likely at 76
cents, then 78 to 78.50 cents, he said.
However, the analyst added, "you're going to have quite
a bit of difficulty even getting a chance at these levels
now." Technically, he said, the market is in a downtrend
from a short-, intermediate- and long-term basis.
"Because we had such a nice consolidation, we're not
really dangerously oversold here," he said.
Three-months copper has lost $44 today to
London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
that warehouse stocks of copper fell 1,900 metric tons,
leaving the total at 255,000.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:38 - ID#287186)
Sharefin: re GAO report Thomas: re Amateur Goldbugs
I have resigned myself to expecting little and hoping for less from our dear United States Government. Adequate defense of our own soil is my only request. If we were left with a bunch of Marines and active duty and previously active duty vets with M-16s, AK47s and adequate supplies of other low-tech iron & explosives - my needs would be met. Screw the rest of the world. We will handle stuff here by ourselves. If the Chinese or others lob some nukes in here - well, we could stand some thinning out of our more populous areas. With advanced guidance technology we gave them they will be less likely to miss the cities and hit people productive farms, forests, mines and rural folk like me.
So I view that GAO report as good news. I just hope the Y2K problem clobbers every other level of our governments just as hard - from the Feds down to local school districts. Then we can rebuild our "communities" with the basics that used to make them communities.

Thomas: what do you call those to whom a loss of $1000 is a major setback? They are the ones who can really drive the demand for Gold and thus its price. Remember they are also the ones who can rebuild these communities when all the amateurs and professionals are begging for a can of soup.

ALL: When all else fails {after Y2K, etc. ) the psychology of the above individuals will determine the fate of Gold and our nation.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:39 - ID#57232)
Globex -- not so reliable recently
Goldbug23, all: Looks like the Sp-500 is heading up, but I am not sure about EURO dollars. Am I right to guess that the US dollar is likely to head down? Well -- unfortunately -- the Globex numbers have not been that reliable over the last few weeks. I was bullish about the US markets based on globex only a few days ago, and bought some gold equities, based on the asssumption that the SEAsia crisis might be ending. Big mistake.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:46 - ID#372400)
Well, I use "Amateur" only because I guess that how "Professionals" call
folks who trade there own money. There was no negative emotions in it.

I really do not judge people by there banking account.
I do not thing that people for hom losing $1000 is a major setback are
"by default" better or worse than "fat cats" for whom $1000 is a price
of lunch.

My point to RJ was that "Professionals" have only large amounts
to lose or win --that is it. There is no insiders in trading gold.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:46 - ID#287193)
is this a turn-around re: Yen?

Japan fighting back?

defence? or offensive? Maybe they had finally ennough?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:47 - ID#401460)
Gold ( CMX )
Silver ( CMX )
Globex has to be up a bunch just to get even with a 200 pt loss form the previous day.
They do mess with those futures in an attempt to control the market - seems like that happens just before the market opens.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:51 - ID#57232)
How about your comments?
RJ: I think Farfel has backed off to let you post. I don't think he really wants to do the verbal fencing bit. Why don't you tell us what you have learned? Thats what this site is about when it works -- the impartial, intellectual exchange of ideas - such as sharefin's patient steady efforts to make sure we know what a mess the US government will make of Y2K.

I've already got an official copy of my ( and spouses ) social security contributions. Have you? If not, they can refuse to pay you after y2k -- there is a ruling that you have 5 years to refute any discrepancies -- but just try to convince that bureacracy that you actually worked. Have you kept your w2 forms since your first job? It is information like this that makes Kitco worthwhile.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:54 - ID#57232)
Globex -- loses predictive value when PPT takes over.
Highrise: I think you have it.

The PPT gets a running start with Globex.


It is only when the 'powers that be' leave the sp-500 alone that it really is useful to predict market direction.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:56 - ID#255151)
To Japan

You are staring down at the abyss. What have you got to lose now by publicly announcing that you are 1 ) buying Gold, 2 ) selling US Treasuries, and 3 ) you plan to keep on doing it come Hell or high water?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 00:59 - ID#153111)
Gold and the Yield on the US long bond
I haven't submitted an entry to the Kitco site for a few months, unless I feel like I have something to contribute I would rather be a lurker. I want to point out something I found interesting in the data I've accumulated over the years going to libraries and hand inputting data into a spread sheet.

There is a real relationship between the US gold price and the yield on the US long bond, gold tends leads the movement of long term US interest rates. This relationship goes back to 1974 when the US finally allow US citizens to own bullion and POG was allowed to float.

Looking at the 10 week moving averages of the price in gold and the Yield on the long bond It is not surprising that gold has been hit in the last few week, the charts would suggest that it would do so as late last week the US interest rates went down. The delay in interest rates following the price of gold can be weeks or months. The chart is compelling, on all the big moves on both gold and interest rates there is almost a 100% accuracy.

Don't be surprised to see the much awaited flight from the US bond market to be preceded by gold going up in a big way. The day will come when the "investment professionals" will stop pulling the wings off of us gold bugs but gold and US interest rates will both be much higher and they will have a much smaller client base.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:01 - ID#263379)
@ Miro....and Weighing in on foodfights
Some here wonder why bandwidth is so commonly wasted on foodfights. Perhaps I could be so bold as to venture an opinion in that regard.

A poster puts soemthing on Kitco that is grossly inaccurate, and smears another poster. I can glean many examples where FarFull would be the agressor in thsi regard, and RJ and others the recipients. When the offended party, smeared by the arrogant initiator responds, HE is labeled the troublemaker!

I find myself in this unfortunate position on ocassion. The flase Loral stories posted here for example, that laughably claim my company has sold "Secret missile technology" to the Chinese. If this absurd claim were true, than myself and otehr employee's would all be co-conspirators in treason if we coninued our employment, would we not? Therefore, what choice am I left with but to set the record straight in the most honest, but agressive possible way?

What then results? We have the clone like sheep aftereffects of other completely ignorant posters jumping into the fray. Folks who either know nothing of the subject matter at hand, or havn't been reading the thread long enough to comprehend the nature of the exchange among the parties.

Take this Miro business for example. First he posts gross inaccuracies about the company where I spend my waking hours, and Engineering abilities, then when I set his iognorant Ass straight....he posts a follow up with the "I told you so" tone and mentality...yet the follow up he poasted confirmed EXACTLY what I had been saying all along.

That his original post was total unmitigated garbage of the ignorantly uninformed, claiming that Space systems Loral has classified Govt. contracts and that the "want ad" he posted had something to do with secret clearances and such!!

It's Aholes like this, who jump in where they know NOTHING of the subject matter, and then accuse the offended party of being the ignorant one....who cause these outraged responses.

I've seen the pattern many times. Take a look at the ture initiators of the foodfights before getting too harsh with the respondee's.

P.S. Note to Miro,..get a clue and get off the subject of which your inane ignoprance shines like a bald head at high noon. There's plenty of PM action and market action happening all around us. If you insist on posting re Loral again, I'll have to insist you post some FACTUAL data...

like just EXACTLY which contracts we are working on which involve "Secret" defense related technology, or secret Govt. clearances, or missile technology, etc etc etc. by our employee's. Since I'm well versed in every single program we're working on, I'll bury you're stupidly ignorant assertions in a Nanosecond.....but feel free to tell us some of that detailed info. that has been so amazingly kept hidden from all of Loral's employee's if you have such info., will you Mr. Blowhard??

PSS.... Commercial satellite technology ( which is ALL we do ) doesn't count in this scenario...unless you want to make the stretch that ALL hig htech. type companies who do business internationally are equally sensitive and subject to the same "traitorous" chargesbeing made against Loral.

The list will be several hundred long incidentally........starting with Sun Microsystems and Boeing...two companies who actually HAVE sold sensitive technologies to the CHinese which has aided their defense efforts.....

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:01 - ID#342376)
Interesting point, It would seem the PPT could use globex to bolster the market. I don't think it will work though. The average Joe Investor knows nothing of globex or futures. The CLOSING level of the DOW, etc. is what they notice. If the average Joe starts getting out of Mutual Funds, I don't think there is much the PPT can do anymore.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:03 - ID#343259)
Dave in CO: I didn't write for the 7090, but others in the firm I started with did. They wrote the MAC compiler for it, in fact. I wrote retail applications for the various Allied and Federated Stores on the 1401/1460 in Autocoder. Assembler, earlier on the 1620 with assorted TAB equipment in the shop. COBOL on the 360. We had one of the first 360's. My partner and I met there. He wrote one of the first program trading machines for the New York Stock Exchange, and co-wrote the NASA compiler in 1966. Although there were algebraic compilers available, NASA needed something that would combine superscripts, subscripts, calculus, matrix math, etc, and Fortran and ALGOL couldn't cut it.

Thomas: The posting re: Autocoder, was only to establish my bonafides, nothing more than that. I am glad that you were able to use a database in 1985 to accomplish your result, and that it was Y2k compliant from the start. Unfortunately, we designed in 2 digit years. We knew we had the problem, we knew we had to fix it. We started developing this app in 1982, and were saddled with some major design restrictions, like small key lengths on the System 34. Even then, the midrange database products were primitive, or non-existent. Even the PC databases didn't have sufficient record-locking capabilities to suit our requirements in those days. At that time there is no way I thought that code would still be running 15 years later. I even wrote in the date logic a note to my successor: "If this code is still running you need to take the following steps..."

It's quite an endeavor to take the WHOLE code base and freeze it for ANY changes ( enhancements ) for 8 months. Can you imagine the requests, "Can't you squeeze this little request in *before* you freeze for Y2k?".

Anyway, our clients have been supportive, and I'm thankful for that.

Thomas. Yes, some have developed Y2k compliant from the start, and that will certainly help. But many haven't. The problem is that many of the newer computers ( I'm speaking to my experience with the IBM midrange here ) all "emulated" older ones, with the purpose of selling new hardware, and making the upgrade "painless". Once the code was running ( faster ) there was no huge reason to change what worked. One process that took over an hour to run on the System 36, now runs in under 20 seconds on the RS6000. The conventional wisdom was "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". Well, I designed it, with the criteria and constraints at the time, KNOWING, that it would not run in 2000. The design fault is mine alone.

My point? I understand the problem well, and how to fix it, and *still* it is a non-trivial task. It's not that it's a particularly difficult problem to solve... it's not at all. It's just that it touches so *many* parts of the code, and the fact remains that all you need is ONE STATEMENT in ONE PROGRAM to stop the functionality of the entire system.

Unfortunately, it appears to me that we are headed as a society for a "fix-on-failure" scenario, rather than a "plan-and-test", just because we don't have the time. I maintain that the probability for failure is high, and I have taken precautions of 60 days of water, food, etc. All the normal things that we are told to do for hurricane, earthquake, etc, but never seem to get around to doing.

BigOtis: I get a kick out of your posts. On the one hand, you seem to say "No big deal", then you go on to talk about generators. I think the main point you were trying to make was that there was a lot of hype, fear-mongering, profiteering, etc with Y2k, and yes, I agree that it is so. I suspect it's part of the culture.

But, unfortunately, when we look with the critical eye ( as we have been taught to do ) to see what hidden agenda Yourdon, Yardini, and others might have, and then we ASSUME that *because* they have a financial interest in the outcome, that what they say is to be taken with a grain of salt, then we might be "done in" IMHO, by not believing them SOLELY because they have a financial interest. I have read bits here and there from both the "Y's Guys", and would have to weigh in with strong agreement with their assessments, at least what I've read. We computer guys, as a whole, are perhaps, not as eloquent, and we are viewed ( I think ) by society as pretty one-dimensional, so our predictions of what society will or won't do, are probably rightly taken with a grain of salt. But, as to whether the probability is high or not of the computers not working, I think, most geeks who have "been there" will say, "It's highly unlikely that the computers will be running without problems". Now as to what that *means*, it's anyone's guess.

In the end, I think everyone has to make their own assessment of what is reasonable for preparations. Personally, I can't do the generator thing, although my partner is. He's already got it set up to run the house, break-before-make switch, the whole deal. Me, I'm going to plan to take it easier, live simpler. We both are long physical gold and silver though, we agree on that!

P.S. Re: comment on "Geek". On a test I saw to determine if you are a geek... 1 ) If anyone ever called you a geek, score one point. If you thought it was a compliment, add 2 points.

It's a badge we wear proudly, I'd say. :- )
(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:05 - ID#434108)
Kosovo fuse continues to burn - & getting short
I've repeatedly referred to the "fuse" of 'Kosovo'. This is one of the most probable triggers, that will ignite a gold bull, in the period just ahead ( -in my -not always humble- opinion ) .

From Sydney Morning Herald:
Tuesday, June 16, 1998


UN mandate "may not be necessary"


Britain's Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, hosting a European Union summit here
yesterday, was expected to tell his fellow leaders that NATO could deploy air
strikes and ground troops against Serbian forces in Kosovo without a mandate
from the United Nations Security Council.

Much hinges on a meeting expected to be held in Moscow today between
Russia's President Boris Yeltsin and Yugoslavia's President Slobodan
Milosevic. Mr Yeltsin has been entrusted by the United States, Britain,
Germany and other members of the six-nation Contact Group with the job of
convincing Mr Milosevic to withdraw his army from Kosovo and end attacks
on its largely ethnic-Albanian population. A British official said: "If Milosevic
refuses, it would be desirable to have a UN mandate, but whether it would be
legally necessary would depend on the situation on the ground. If things
continue as they are, the [military] option may have to be deployed fast."

As NATO warplanes began exercises around Kosovo yesterday, the US,
Britain and Germany agreed that if they were to prevent more Serb atrocities
they might have to act speedily.

Other international military operations, including the Gulf War and in Bosnia,
were carried out under the UN's legal authority.

The push for action will dismay neutral EU countries, such as Ireland and
Sweden, and NATO members such as Denmark and The Netherlands. They
fear a risky precedent if NATO is free to take military action without UN
authority. Six British RAF Jaguar fighter-bombers were to join 50 NATO
warplanes from 10 countries preparing for yesterday's live-fire exercises over
Albania and Macedonia, intended to provide proof to Serb forces in
neighbouring Kosovo of NATO's military power.

Behind the issue of the UN mandate Britain is seeking at the Security Council is
a political decision by the US that it and the NATO alliance it leads cannot let
their hands be tied.

The US Defence Secretary, Mr William Cohen, said: "NATO works by
consensus. That means that all the countries ultimately agree or there is no
action. To subordinate NATO's concern for security to the United Nations is
inadvisable and not necessary."

Britain is seeking to rally "the widest possible consensus" in the EU, NATO
and at the UN but fears that Russia could indefinitely delay or block a UN

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:06 - ID#263379)
TyposR Usss
Apologies to all for the wasted bandwidth, and the frequent typos...the typos occur in all my posts but with greater frequency when I'm pissed!

( And I do get pissed when I am labeled traitorous by implication, ignorant in my occupation, etc etc as Miro has so stupidly done )

back to PM's now, I promise!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:07 - ID#240266)
@PM Discussion
Sometimes it seems that the tension in the PM market is
reflected here.I've read many fine contibutions from those
generous enough to share their view with others.Posting an
opinion shouldn't have to be an act of courage.
RJ... rest on your laurels you got it mostly right.Thank you.
Happy Trading!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:09 - ID#401460)
World Bank says Asia could prompt global crisis.

Tuesday June 16, 12:08 am Eastern Time

MELBOURNE, June 16 ( Reuters ) - There was a chance that the Asian economic crisis could spread globally within a matter on months, a senior World Bank official said on Tuesday.

``The risk is there and probably we are counting in months rather than years,'' World Bank vice-president, East Asia and the Pacific region, Jean-Michel Severino told reporters at a regional economic conference.

``The problem globally is how the international community is going to be able to react before the end of the calendar year,'' he said.

``If there's no reaction...then it's going to be very difficult to find a quick way out of the problem.''

Severino, who described the world as being at a ``critical juncture,'' also warned international action was needed as soon as possible because of the time it would take for any impact to occur.

``One should just realise that whatever is being undertaken in the coming six months, it will be too late to have an acceptable ( effect ) in calendar 1998, it will be probably too late to have a good 1999,'' he said.

``Even if the international community started to react very quickly now, we are talking about impacts in mid-1999.''

``But if this situation lasted in the region, no country should be left out of the problem,'' he said.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:09 - ID#215379)
MLPJ, interest / gold
I have always been told that higher interest rates are bad for gold because of the storage cost ?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:13 - ID#227168)
So easy to change stations --Good night yo-all
Farfel RJ ---Was that a replay Off to the penalty box boys ----Yes Chained, tarred, feathered ---Away to peaceful slumber.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:14 - ID#215379)
MJPL sorry, not MLPG

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:18 - ID#263379)
Other Metals?? SSC and Gold
Someone asked me earlier what "Other metals" which I reply Silver and Platinum.

Also, SSC, a favorite Silver stock, and the most commonly traded NA Silver mining concern, ( and one of the only mining shares I ever trade in ) seems to be branching out into Gold..... here's the release from today.

Company Press Release

Sunshine Announces Gold Project Drilling Completed in Southern Argentina

BOISE, Idaho-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --June 15, 1998--Sunshine Mining and Refining Company ( Nasdaq:SILVW - news; NYSE:SSC - news ) announced today that it had completed a planned 4200 meters ( 13,500 feet ) of core drilling at the La Joya del Sol gold project in the Chubut province of southern Argentina.

Drilling has focused on four of the 16 veins identified on the property to depths of 100 meters ( 330 feet ) . Vein thicknesses and assays received to date have contained significant gold mineralization, comparable to previously reported values in earlier drilling and sampling.

Receipt of the remaining assays and analysis of the results is expected by the end of July.

Preliminary metallurgical testwork has indicated that vat cyanide leaching will recover 90% of the contained gold and 75% of the contained silver in 48 hours, with low cyanide consumption. The company believes a mill it owns at a closed mine in Silver Peak, Nevada may be amenable to processing this material.

Sunshine Mining and Refining Company is one of the world's leading silver producers, with 6 million ounces of production planned from the Sunshine Mine near Kellogg, Idaho in 1998. The company expects its silver production to reach 18 million ounces per year by 2001, once Pirquitas and the Revenue Virginius mine near Ouray, Colorado start producing.

The company announced last week that it had begun a bankable feasibility study of the Pirquitas Mine in Jujuy province in northwest Argentina. The study will provide the basis for financing development of the mine. At the same time, Sunshine is conducting an extensive drilling program there, designed to expand current proven and probable reserves of 72 million ounces of silver. Acquired by Sunshine Mining in November 1995, Pirquitas has historically been Argentina's largest silver producer.

The above statements regarding Sunshine's estimated future production ( including cash cost of production ) , exploration and operating data are ``forward-looking statements'' within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Actual results could differ materially from those projected, whether as a result of changes in the market prices of precious metals, uncertainties inherent in exploration and development activities, risks inherent in estimating precious metals reserves, the effects of environmental and other governmental regulations, risks inherent in the ownership or operation of mining properties in foreign countries, or as a result of other risks and hazards inherent in the mining business ( including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, or geologically related conditions ) .

Sunshine Mining and Refining Company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ``SSC.'' Its news releases can be accessed on the Internet at:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:24 - ID#401460)
Nikkei 225
(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:24 - ID#434108)
be that as it may
Be that as it may: my 2-cents' says: gold still needs a final
down-side sell-off/spike...toward 280/275 area.

Once upon a time ( - 2/2/98 ) , golden-eagle placed an article of mine
on their site: "The Golden Cure for Deflation Contagion". Although a few details from that article, may be out-of-date, or "mis-timed",
the basic message has been verified by all events,
unfolding since then; and since my refrenced 9/27/97 kitco post:
"When the Tent Collapses".....:: )

"When the tent collapses,
"It will not be the center post that goes first,
"It will be the side-posts,
"and even the stakes


( ( refined definition of 'terms' offered here: ) : )

the "tent" - the global economy - built on an artificial dollar
denominated & dominated world, pretending to 'manage' the shifting-sands-foundation of floating exchange-rate currencies,
rooted in a fractional reserve centralized banking system of
lies and political expediency

the "center-post" - the U.S. stock-market/economy & dollar

the "side-posts" - the U.S.'s major trading partners - Japan,
Europe, Hong-Kong/China, Mexico, Canada

the "stakes" - the Asian economies that have been "collapsing" --
in increasing currency & economic turmoil, since 7/97; plus
the other important economic nations of Asia, Africa,
So. America, Eastern Europe, Russia, etc.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:25 - ID#287186)
Thomas - thank you for the clarification
I wasn't picking on you in particular. Rather I was responding to the occasional trader or broker/salesman who may be lurking out there and who overtly or through tone-of-voice seems to relegate such small time and likely naive investors as stupid chickens not worth talking to except to pluck 'em and leave 'em.
I am one of those small timers. That is why I listen in here - to know enough to prevent my being plucked. Pardon my being outspoken but I can't help throwing in my two cents once in a while.
Thanks for listening.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:25 - ID#284255)
Email chatter from the US
Nick, this is getting scarier in the US by the day.
Know on Chuck Harder radio program today, I had it on for about 1/2 hr and it was caller in time. A guy called in and said that a guy he works with is in the National Guard and he was given some kind of a paper that had a question to answer. Question was:
"If martial law was declared would you fire on American citizens?"
He said that if he did not answer the question, he would be out.
Chuck told him to get a copy of it, make 500 copies and send it to every
media in the US.
What the hell is going on??

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:29 - ID#240266)
I'm interested in knowing more than I do about INDIAN
PRINCESS gold cost and qualities and sources.Thanks
in advance for a reply. Also SSC seems exhausted on the downside.
I'm a buyer at these prices.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:32 - ID#401460)
Watch out for your pets!

SINGAPORE ( AP ) - When David Lau looked at his koi pond, he saw pets.

When a couple of Thai workers looked at the pond, they saw dinner.

Lau, a 44-year-old engineering firm director, found two of his $2,800 koi missing when he went to work on Sunday. Although another 25 or so koi were swimming around in the pond, Lau knew something was amiss.

``I felt like I have just lost my children,'' he told The Straits Times in an interview published Tuesday. ``I started rearing the koi three to five years ago and have developed a lot of feelings for them.''

He said he followed a trail of fish scales across the road and found one of his koi in a freezer at the back of a house where Thai and other foreign workers were staying. He called the police, but by the time they arrived, the fish was gone.

After a search, it was found under the bed of one of the Thai workers, who fingered an

Rathchata Mangkorn, 24, and Samart Setraksa, 22, appeared in court Monday and
acknowledged they had already cooked and eaten the other koi. They said they looked like common fish from back home. Each was sentenced to three months in jail.

Things are getting tough!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:42 - ID#434108)
home-page of HongKong stock exchange

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:44 - ID#153111)
In reply to Dirt about gold and US interest rates
Yes I have always heard that too, so I decided to check it out myself with the real numbers. Using my laptop computer and my local library historical reference of Barron's on micro film I got the real story of gold and interest rates. This is information that was recorded as these events happen many years ago. If anyone would do the same work they would come to the same conclusion.

Why this would be so is not hard to understand: Junk bonds demand a higher interest rate than one that is considered a sure thing. When interest rates on the US bond reaches junk bond yields, guess what, they are junk bonds that only a more hardy soul dares to buy, and they want a junk bond premium to compensate them for their risk. Any one who remembers Jimmy Carter as president and was following the markets during his administration will remember Wall Street calling US Bonds "certificates of confiscation".

During the 70's and 80's gold and US interest rates danced together like Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers. This relationship is really more useful for bond buyers than gold bugs. A bond buyer can follow the POG to see what to do with his bonds, I know nothing that gives as good a guide for timing gold. But still that doesn't change anything that happen in the past, and if the past is prologue then we should see gold going up in earnest when the air is let out of the bond market.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:44 - ID#43349)
just passing through
It looks as though my wife wikk undergo bypass surgery Wednesday morning. I would like to express my gratitude to those who have shown

MJPL: I am glad you pointed out the relationship between The yield on
the US bond and the price of gold. The immediate haven for flight capital
is, of coutse, interest bearing US securities. Later, as the value of
dollar begins to lose it's luster and perhaps even to take on an aura
of risk, the prices of real assets will rise. There has always been
a much stronger correlation between gold price movements and bond price
movements than stock market prices.
We are in the phase of the cycle where the equities maekets are beginning to realize that it is not the Fed to be feared so much as it is
the faltering manufacturing and export sectors whose falling earings
will soon enough be spreading throughout the rest of the economy. Labor
unrest being another coal on the fire. This has no immediate bullish
impact on the precious metals other than as a marker for where we are
in the cycle which will eventually lead to falling interest rate and
decrease in value of the dollar.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:47 - ID#401460)
Check out the China markets


Dave in CO
(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:49 - ID#229103)
Because I left the IBM environment in 1969, I haven't heard of the 1401 and 1620 machines and tab equipment for almost 30 years. My first job was writing FORTRAN for the 1620 and then COBOL and FORTRAN for the 7040/7044. Didn't work on the 1401 but we had a couple. As I said, everything I wrote from 1965-1980 was non-compliant. Didn't know that the migration available with IBM was so easy ( including 6 digit dates ) but I guess they weren't #1 for nothing.

Your notes here are the best I've read anywhere in expressing, in a few words, the nitty-gritty problems of the code. Hopefully, the non-geeks can interpret your thoughts as well because IMHO you are on target. Please contribute more, as you have time, since others like me are not so eloquent. If not, do you have previous writings to share?

Thanks, Dave

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:49 - ID#190411)
Send me your address, I might want to do some business with your store.

I still would like to know whether it is true that silver at present is the "biggest short position of all time".
Or, is this more BS?

Goodnight, and g'day to the antipodeians.
(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:51 - ID#434108)
Is Australia's Hanson/One Nation election victory pouring gasoline on fire?
uesday, June 16, 1998

Businesses fear setbacks in Asia trade


Businesses have warned that the political instability arising from One Nation's
election success could set them back.

Already reeling from a lower dollar, the crisis in Asia and massive loss in
business confidence, they fear decades of work developing Asian clients could
be in jeopardy.

The chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr
Philip Holt, said: "Business would not normally enter such debates but
statements that make our neighbours look at us in a light that's not favourable
are not helpful."

The chief executive of the Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia,
Mr Rob Bastion, said political uncertainty was disastrous for confidence.

"Suggestions of on again, off again tax reform is also disastrous. We don't
accept Pauline Hanson's position that small business does not want tax reform,"
he said.

A survey of the manufacturing sector taken before last weekend's election
showed a sharp downturn in business confidence. The Australian Business
Chamber/Colonial State Bank June quarter survey showed business conditions
at their lowest since 1996.

Deutsche Bank director Mr Ivan Colhoun said there were several policy areas
which financial markets were concerned about in relation to Ms Hanson's

"One Nation's opposition to the full privatisation of Telstra, a GST, national
competition policy and the Native Title Act will see markets worried about
backtracking by the Federal Government," he said.

Mr Colhoun said other One Nation policies, such as restoring tariff protection,
restricting foreign ownership in Australia and zero net migration were less of a
concern because they were less likely to gain government support.

One Nation's success is unlikely to have any short-term impact on the number
of overseas students in Australian universities, according to the head of the
Australian Vice-Chancellors Committee.

Professor John Niland, who heads of the University of New South Wales,
yesterday described the election of One Nation candidates to the Queensland
Parliament as "unfortunate" and a "national embarrassment".

But he said prospective students and their families in Asia were already well
aware of the views expressed by Ms Hanson and her supporters.

"This issue has been around for two years now and my view is that students in
Asia are very perceptive and they can see right through the Hanson factor," he
said. "They still recognise opportunity when they see it."

He said that despite the media publicity surrounding Ms Hanson in the past, the
number of overseas students enrolled in universities at the beginning of this year
had remained steady.

( this article from Sydney Morning Herald )
(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:52 - ID#434108)
Is Australia's Hanson/One Nation election victory pouring gasoline on fire?
uesday, June 16, 1998

Businesses fear setbacks in Asia trade


Businesses have warned that the political instability arising from One Nation's
election success could set them back.

Already reeling from a lower dollar, the crisis in Asia and massive loss in
business confidence, they fear decades of work developing Asian clients could
be in jeopardy.

The chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr
Philip Holt, said: "Business would not normally enter such debates but
statements that make our neighbours look at us in a light that's not favourable
are not helpful."

The chief executive of the Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia,
Mr Rob Bastion, said political uncertainty was disastrous for confidence.

"Suggestions of on again, off again tax reform is also disastrous. We don't
accept Pauline Hanson's position that small business does not want tax reform,"
he said.

A survey of the manufacturing sector taken before last weekend's election
showed a sharp downturn in business confidence. The Australian Business
Chamber/Colonial State Bank June quarter survey showed business conditions
at their lowest since 1996.

Deutsche Bank director Mr Ivan Colhoun said there were several policy areas
which financial markets were concerned about in relation to Ms Hanson's

"One Nation's opposition to the full privatisation of Telstra, a GST, national
competition policy and the Native Title Act will see markets worried about
backtracking by the Federal Government," he said.

Mr Colhoun said other One Nation policies, such as restoring tariff protection,
restricting foreign ownership in Australia and zero net migration were less of a
concern because they were less likely to gain government support.

One Nation's success is unlikely to have any short-term impact on the number
of overseas students in Australian universities, according to the head of the
Australian Vice-Chancellors Committee.

Professor John Niland, who heads of the University of New South Wales,
yesterday described the election of One Nation candidates to the Queensland
Parliament as "unfortunate" and a "national embarrassment".

But he said prospective students and their families in Asia were already well
aware of the views expressed by Ms Hanson and her supporters.

"This issue has been around for two years now and my view is that students in
Asia are very perceptive and they can see right through the Hanson factor," he
said. "They still recognise opportunity when they see it."

He said that despite the media publicity surrounding Ms Hanson in the past, the
number of overseas students enrolled in universities at the beginning of this year
had remained steady.

( this article from Sydney Morning Herald )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:53 - ID#190411)
High Rise
Got your chinese mkt.
Who cares?
Go back and check Turkey.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:54 - ID#16255)
I surely hope all goes well with your wife's surgery!! My wife is an RN and cares for post op heart surgery patients. They all do very well! good luck sir!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:56 - ID#43349)
Thank you.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:56 - ID#190411)
Someone give goldfevr One Nation's site
URL. Please.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 01:57 - ID#43349)
See ya
Going to retire now. Keep your eye on the PM markets tonight.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:01 - ID#287186)
Sharefin - the group deserves to see my response to your post
What was the Guardsman's answer and the answers of his fellow guardsmen? The off-the-record, talk-in-the-civilian-truck-cabs-on-the-way-home answer. I can guess what they would answer on the paper. But put them on the street facing NOT JUST looters, gang bangers and murdering rapists - but rowdy-yelling-taunting crowds protesting oppressive military occupation - as at Kent State in 1970 and I bet they refuse. Maybe not right away - but after a day or two of bloodletting - when they have had a chance to sleep or not sleep on what happened - they will get sick and walk away - with their weapons - to join the crowd. If those guardsmen answer "yes" off the record - then I am worried. But just the fact THAT THE LETTER WAS LEAKED tells me they will disobey orders to fire on civilians {given they are not looters, thugs, etc.} Regardless of where they come from the Guardsmen are Americans like the rest of us. In order to pursue long-term such aggression agains fellow Americans they will have to dehumanize the "enemy" by playing the race/ethnic card and sending black units into hispanic or white areas, white units into hispanic or black areas, or hispanic units into white or black areas ( and other similar tactics that play on ethnic hatred ) . Now THAT scenario will be bloody indeed! Ethnic groups who are minorities where they live could be slaughtered by the ethic/racial groups who are in the majority. The latter will also decimate any military unit that does not match their ethnicity and they will assimilate those who do. The race riots of the 60's will be a rumble on the street corner compared to nationwide race wars. My area here is not immune to this - even though urban refugees won't make it this far. We have about 30% hispanic/Mexican. It will be tough for American Hispanics who have been here for generations. They hate the Mexicans who have moved here to work in the ski resorts. They don't like Anglos either. We could have a local three-way war. I know on which side I will end up. This is our payback for no longer requiring immigrants to become Americans.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:05 - ID#255151)

As Hamlet might have said, "Ignore the slings and arrows of outrageous postings." You are entitled to post here without explanation or apology. Your input on Y2K is relevant to the price of Gold, and is a valuable resource for Kitco.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:05 - ID#343259)
@Auric, @Thomas
Auric: You asked me to weigh in on a 1-10 scale about "how bad" I thought It would be ( Y2k ) . Well, I hate to hedge, but I don't really know. I can't possibly know. What I do know, is that *my* code has problems. Therefore, I know how easy it would be to introduce new "bugs" into existing code. Based on this, I can venture a view that others who have similar "old code" are likely to be in a similar situation. Thomas asks a good question... What percentage of "old code" is there? To which I would add another question. What functions does the "old code" do? Does it keep the power on? Or does it balance a checkbook, or does it run the water purification plant? The answers to these questions would be part of a risk analysis.
Now when I see Gross's report about how the IRS is not going to make it. and when I see all the stories in, I get concerned that there is a fair amount of code that will not work, and a lot of it seems to be government code. But a number? I can't really say. I do know this. That if my software stopped running, some multi-billion dollar trading firms would have problems knowing what their equity was, knowing what their positions were, knowing how they were scheduled, and financed, and what their cash and credit positions were. Could it be done manually? Yes. Suboptimally, and slowly, but it could be done. Some software doesn't have that luxury of a manual backup.
[US Centric mode on]
When we had the UPS strike it was a fairly major irritation for everyone, or so it seemed to me.
[mode off]
I would think and hope that the distribution systems of train, plane, bus, truck would be worked out, but I just don't know.

My posture is reasoned out as follows:
1 ) I think the chance of bugs being introduced by Y2k fixes is large
2 ) I know that the problem is greater than the average "guy-on-the-street" will make it out to be ( Heck, I'm even accused of dreaming this whole situation up to capitalize on it )
3 ) I have witnessed bureacracy at work first hand in corporate and government for 30 years, and I know how ponderously the machinery moves, with everyone jockeying for power and position, and no work getting done, endless meetings ( need I go on? :- ) )
4 ) I know we have 1.54 years left before the time is up, and figuring 2080 work hours per year, we have 3,203 working hours to go.
5 ) I know that almost every computer project I know of ( Including mine ) comes in over budget and late.
6 ) I know that this deadline will not wait
7 ) I know that some folks are just now waking up to the problem

Therefore, I will offer the following:
1 ) Even if you think Y2k is going to go very smoothly, that you should prepare AT LEAST as much as you would prepare for a hurricane, or earthquake.
2 ) If Y2k turns out to be a "yawn", then you have food and water for a few months free, and some gold and silver coins. In other words, to calmly prepare will not cost a whole lot if you are wrong.
3 ) If it turns out less than well, then you are prepared to some extent.
4 ) The wild card. There is very likely to be hysteria from this event. I think it is almost self-fulfilling. But, to *not* raise the issue, IMHO will not let people prepare. To squash it as "lunatic ravings", does not let people take precautions.
I am telling my friends ( those that care to listen ) :- ) to prepare for the basics. If, during the next 563 days, you hear more information you might want to adjust your preparations. If everyone prepared, I think disruptions would be less. IMVVHO.
(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:06 - ID#434108)
ERLE/Australia PM warns aga. Hanson protectionism

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:18 - ID#198328)
World's Largest Bank Almost Insolvent
The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi is nearly officially insolvent as of this morning, as its capital-adequacy ratio is less than 8.2%:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:21 - ID#227238)
Sharefin: I hope your anecdote re the National Guardsman turns out to be just another of those "urban myths" that crop up from time to time.

OTOH, given the distinct possibility of social discontinuity, aided and abetted by the low state of western civilization - at least in the US - vis a vis the appallingly reprehensible condition of federal governance; it may turn out to be but a vilely interesting harbinger of future events.

Our masters would easily consider such, "contingency planning".

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:23 - ID#257148)

Still feel OK about our little gold wager??

I have tried, but alas, failed to comprehend your post on K1 about NZ leading the world into a Precious metal based currency. One of NZ's pround boasts is it lead the world in giving women the vote and providing for a cradle to crypt ( it's a mighty short trip ) social welfare system. Could the world be changing once more, and could, kiwis lead such a transformation? BTW could you please "in a nutshell" describe howcome Noo zild is gonna get so big? I am no oceanographer, perhaps sharefin can help us out with the relative ocean depths around the coasts of stralia and noo zild.

Mike Sheller
Good to see my favourite gastrologer re-appear.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:24 - ID#269207)
@ squirrel, yessir, if I seen US trops firing on students or protestors I think
I'd be firin on them. they would not have to think about it.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:24 - ID#287186)
After that tirade of mine I must clarify a point
Some of my friends are either multi-generational American hispanics or are married to them. As in the American Civil War - no matter which side we end up on - we will find ourselves fighting beside past enemies and against past friends. I will gladly invite my hispanic friends to stand by me and I will gladly stand by them - if their compadres will have me.
(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:25 - ID#434108)
BBC: "Call for global response to Asian crisis"

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:29 - ID#255151)

Alas, I think you won. Where do you wish the Gold to go?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:32 - ID#284255)

You should reread your post to Miro.
Put your name where his is and think hard.

No one deserves that sort of treatment even if they are totally off-mark.

I know nothing of many poster's interests here.
I could well voice my opinion on a subject of what I know little.
But I would not expect to be treated with such vitreol.

ALL, at this site need to learn to repect the others opinion.
It may be far from one's own but it is still valid.

It doesn't have to be right,
It doesn't have to fit into one's own criteria.

I think you owe Miro an apology.
Not because you or he is right or wrong.

But because we all need to accept,
That others have a right to express their own thoughts

What do you think when you put your name where Miro's is?
Fair, reasonable and just?

We all need room here.

'Nuff said.
S'cuse me please.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:32 - ID#343259)
Arabic Saying:
Do not tell every secret to your friend
Because someday he may become your enemy
Do not do every injustice to your enemy
Because someday he may become your friend.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:32 - ID#257148)
v kind to concede defeat---but, I'll not have it.

not yet

Dave in CO
(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:33 - ID#229103)
Absolutely, keep posting. We need you.

Your analogy of helping the ChiCom to launch a rocket and selling them a computer was excellent. A company I interviewed with but didn't work for in the late 70's, was accused of selling a computer, a DEC PDP-11/45 I believe, to an Eastern European country. They were forced out of business and some principals were indicted if I remember correctly. These days Mr. Schwartz will probably get a gift-certificate for unlimited use of the Lincoln Bedroom and burial at Arlington for his patriotic acts.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:33 - ID#433172)
I read the GAO report you recomended and I will pass it around. Thank-you
Could be a window of opportunity for our enemies, no doubt.
I too was a commercial fisherman for many years ( 6 ) seemed like a long time. Got lost alot, drifted along the 30 fathom curve at night, looked on the 20 days for a bouy. Finnally got an APN 9, but it never worked right. I was one of the poorest fishermen I knew ( salmon trolling-gill netting ) just stayed solvent. Loved it, not the fish catching, but the experiences. Recently tried it again in Alaska and found I don't like catching the fish. What's going down up here is murder, if a halibut isn't the right size they run em thru the crusifier, ever see it? They are dragging hell out the bottom and throwing most of it away. How long can it go on?
somebody said he was a people firster, is people spelled me?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:35 - ID#401460)
Hong Kong
Hang Seng

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:47 - ID#287186)
Aurator - how NZ could lead the world to Gold monetization
First: by replacing all its current paper, aluminum and cupro-nickel money with Silver and Gold coinage - as per some semblance of my ideas on K2.
Second: by handling NZs internal economy and government in such a way that your money is a stable anchor in tempest-tost sea.
Third: by using the strength of such coinage to persuade Australia to use it too or mint its own. Hopefully the firstest with the mostest wins.
Fourth: Exporting such coinage to other countries and making it real easy to exchange their currencies for your coins and vice versa. Such as making it easy for my store use your coins for trade - my naivete here likely shows in that I have not looked into how to buy or sell foreign currency locals or tourists could spend here. None of the local banks offer such services. Hmmmm - can I do this myself if they won't?
OKAY Kitcoites - blow these ideas full of holes! Only in that way can I find out where the weak spots are or if an overhaul is needed.
SOMEHOW & SOMEWHERE SOMEBODY has to kick off the return of Gold and Silver to common everyday usage to buy groceries and breakfast. Otherwise all the Gold & Silver pep talk here is for naught!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:55 - ID#284255)
Wish I was a subscriber.

Note the latest entry - "Crash"

Interesting reads here.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 02:59 - ID#215379)
Squirrel, E-gold is the answer
Check out, deposit your gold and trade electronically. ( I am not a customer, yet )

John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:14 - ID#24135)
Behave Yourself ...
... Little Gritty Liberty or whatever..
You are very rude and self rightous..
I find you generally painful and never read you
now .. as your posts are mainly MOUTH. I only read
one if someone refers to one as being particularly
offensive. You offer very little except insults to
other nore serious contributors. I think you need
some sort of help.
Farfel simply talks too much and has a one track mind ..
not so bad really .. he's reasonably polite.. and
would probably be good company. Somehow I doubt if
you would.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:22 - ID#287186)
dirt - you are not the first to refer me to e-gold
I have checked out their website.
They assure us that their e-gold is backed by GOLD, That we can deposit Gold or withdraw Gold as we wish.
Hmmmm - perhaps like the disappearance of Ol's Silver in Wilmington Trust? See his post on Fri Jun 05 1998 19:54 {and those just before} and numerous posts of fellow Kitcoites thereafter lending him advice and support.
And it is not that e-golds address might color my perception any:

e-goldtm is administered exclusively by
Gold & Silver Reserve, Inc.
1013 Centre Road, Suite 350
Wilmington, DE 19805

Crystal Ball
(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:23 - ID#287367)
@ John Disney
I think "Liberty" is really Leaky Gum Boot

(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:29 - ID#287186)
Aurator - please don't feel I insulted your money
I checked out what your currency looks like at:
Both the notes and coins are some beautiful artwork!
But would not that artwork look better if rendered in Silver and Gold?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:37 - ID#284255)
From the web.
I'm fairly pessimistic about Y2K issues, as you all know. I'm taking personal steps, and have been for about a year, to ensure my own safety and comfort during any possible outages, breakdowns, or collapses. I'm not ( yet ) pessimistic enough to move from my fairly rural place in Northern California to an even more rural location in Idaho or Oregon or wherever. And even if I get much more pessimistic, I'll probably stick it out here, as this is the place I like, this is where I have my supplies and my stuff, and this is the area I know. Moving to the woods of Tennessee or the mountains of Montana would take too much time to prepare for, to close on a deal, to get my stuff moved, to sell my current home, to get established, etc. And, after all this, I might well be no safer than in a less rural location with neighbors who I expect will help defend the area against outside invaders, if they come.

Anyway, enough recapitulation of my situation.

I want to set down what I'm now thinking will be the major effects of the Y2K problem. This is my "Y2K version 0.7" Meaning, I'm not yet at version 1, but am well along in my thinking.

This is an informal article, written linearly. A professional paper I would agonize over, and would write with more advanced tools. You're getting what you're paying for.

I'll consider three major areas: infrastructure, factories, and the economy.

I. Infrastructure

I'm now thinking that the _infrastructure_ of electrical power and transportation and essentials like water and basic foodstuffs will mostly be handled. That is, despite some interruptions and chaos, power and transportation will be basically available within a few weeks of 1/1/2000. Not because I'm a pollyanna, but because the "logical depth" ( a specialized term which I shouldn't use, but a few of you may know it from computational physics ) is fairly low: these are items which even less advanced economies in the world know how to provide, so it's likely that 80% of current capacity can be managed somehow, after some surprises and other interruptions in the first weeks.

In a triage situation, the highest priority will be given to keeping the nation's nuclear and fossil fuel power plants operating. Plants will likely increase their reserves just prior to critical Y2K dates to buffer themselves against outages. Remediation efforts and "workarounds" ( e.g., what to do when the emission controls systems threaten plant shutdown? Override them. ) will be a major focus.

And government troops and National Guardsmen will likely be used as needed to keep rail lines open. Unless physical damage occurs to oil and gas pipelines, I expect the oil and gas to keep flowing. ( No doubt some specific refineries and such will have serious problems and may even be offline for weeks or months. Some even more. But there should be enough capacity to at least run the grid most of the time. Street lights may be turned off, and a nationwide "conserve electricity" campaign may be launched.

I expect most of the country to have power most of the time. There will no doubt be economic effects of brownouts and blackouts, but I doubt the overall infrastructure, the grid itself, will be irreparably damaged.

( I have at various times thought the grid might go down and stay down for years, but I now think the highest priority will be put on keeping it going, and it will. Mostly. )

Transportation may be affected by rail computers, but, again, I think manual switching and workarounds will get most trains through. Possibly at reduced speeds, reduced numbers, etc. ( And triaged so as to give priority to oil shipments, with lower priority for things like automobile deliveries...which may well be slowed for economic reasons anyway. )

The highways should remain unaffected. Traffic jams can be cleared the old-fashioned way, with tractors. ( I'm exaggerating, of course, but any notion that highways would be blocked by stalled cars fails to take into account just how quickly cars can be dragged off the road. )

If the highways are basically clear, and if many are not commuting to work ( layoffs, see next sections ) , and if diesel is basically available ( at perhaps very high prices ) , then food shipment should get through. For basic foodstuffs, this should head off a major food shortage. ( Much more needs to be written here. )

In summary, I don't see strong support for the scenario that the nation's electrical grid goes down and stays down. Or that the nation's rail and highway systems are unusable. They were usable before computers. While computerization will cause Y2K problems which wouldn't have been problems in the 1950s, a fallback model exists. ( Even things like computerized rail switches...we have heard that the manual switches are sitting in warehouses, waiting to be scrapped. Perhaps. But if the computerized switches go down, how hard can it possibly be to arrange manual switches, even if its guys just feeding fake signals into the computerized switches to tell them to change? I can't imagine this being a showstopper for more than a few days or possibly weeks. And I'll bet that the major railroads have contingency plans anyway. )

On to what I think is a much more serious problem: supply line depth for factories.

II. Supply Lines for Factories

General Motors is said to be dependent on 14,000 suppliers. Intel is dependent on suppliers of wafers, liquid nitrogen, photoresist, glass masks, chemicals, and a zillion other "consumables." Not to mention fixed, capital equipment ( which may have Y2K bugs ) .

Many of the supplies are "single-sourced." 90% of the world's masks ( used in photolithography ) come from one Japanese plant ( as I recall ) . If any of these single-source components gets into Y2K trouble, the ripple effects are immense.

Repeat for 1000 major factories and businesses, and for tens of thousands of smaller factories.

( There's a rumor, which I've not yet confirmed, that the "factory automation" software for many chip companies is from a single supplier, and that the software--which of course makes heavy use of dates to schedule and measure things--is very seriously "Y2K broken." And that the chip companies are beating on this supplier very hard to fix the problems ASAP. And that the supplier has lost most of the programmers who wrote the code....a familiar Y2K horror story. But this could be devastating, as there simply are no manual fallback procedures in the chip business. We've long since lost the ability to track lots by hand, or even with spreadsheets and data bases.... )

I think you get the point. "For want of a nail." Multiplied by ten thousand.

I see little hope of remediation. The logical depth and complexity is enormous. Factory A goes to its thousands of suppliers and asks them to be sure to Y2K compliant. These thousands of suppliers, many of whom will be"Y2K-unaware," will then contact _their_ suppliers. In a cascade which reflects the modern Just-in-time, subcontract-it-out, computerized economy we now have.

When it works well, it works really, really well. But when it doesn't work....

III. The Economy

The effect on factories is likely to be very serious. I expect major industries to be effectively shut down for months or even longer. There will be no simple remediation efforts. If critical suppliers for the chip industry, to use it as an example again, are unable to deliver, then the products will not appear. The interruption will last _at least_ as long as the length of the pipeline ( a few months ) and almost certainly much longer. It will not be easy to switch chemicals, or process steps, or write new factory automation software.

( I could go on at length about this. The effects are just enormous, and the problems of missing suppliers will not be easily solved in less than a year or so. )

And the economies of other countries may well be tanked for much longer than just the Y2K effects would suggest. Asia is already entering a deep recession, with more bad news nearly every day now. Their Y2K efforts are widely recognized to be pitiful, even by the Y2K optimists.

I think we could see unemployment hitting 30%, perhaps higher. This would in many ways be worse than the Great Depression, for various reasons. ( More urbanization, the ripple effect, more people on various forms of the dole, the effects on tax revenues will have a bigger effect, more complexity, and so on. )

Well, enough for now. This article is probably too long to be read by most of you anyway.

I am hopeful that essential core of the infrastructure--power, transportation, water, sewage, food--will be maintained. ( I've left out "law and order" in this analysis. Another article. )

But I think the "brittle" ( not tolerant to faults ) nature of our highly-leveraged economy and production system will make even relatively minor Y2K problems multiply in importance. "For want of a nail" indeed.

Combined with the developing world recession, these effects will push the U.S. into a very, very deep recession. Even a depression, by anyone's standards. While there may be some looting and rioting, I don't anticipate the "Mad Max" scenario will happen. ( It didn't happen in Bosnia, which had its infrastructure and economy devastated from all sides. )

So I'm making my plans to survive and prosper in a very deep recession, with rolling outages of power and with possible disruptions of food and other supplies for a few months. Storing more is cheap, so I'm doing that as an extra precaution.

Your mileage may vary.
--Tim May

(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:49 - ID#340302)
Just checking in....
...before hitting the sack.

Gollum, I am sure there are many people on this forum who are sending their prayers for your wife's good health. If you are able, please continue to post your thoughts. Although I can't say I agree with everything you post, nevertheless you are font of wisdom.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:50 - ID#23941)
Aussie Gold Sales
As much as I hate to admit this, at the moment the Australian Governments decision to sell 167t of gold last year has turned out to be a good investment, my reasoning is outlined below ( Feed back would be appreciated ) .

Sold 167t @ $US350/oz ( Jan  Jun 97 Avg. ) = $US 1.88 Billion

Exchange Rate = 0.75 ( Jan  Jun 97 Avg. ) = $Aus 2.50 Billion

The government reported that it would invest the money in various bonds ( for sake of ease I am assuming 5%p.a )

$US 1.88 Billion @ 5% = $US 1.97 Billion

Exchange Rate Jun 98 = 0.59 = $Aus 3.34 Billion

I year investment $Aus 2.5 Billion to $Aus 3.34 Billion = 33.6% return.

Various people think that the drop in the $Aus was caused partly by the governments sale of gold last year, the $Aus has dropped 22% since Jun 97 ( 0.753 to 0.590 ) , but the price of gold has also dropped 18% since Jun 97 ( 350 to 290 ) . So even if the government had not sold the gold chances are that the $Aus dollar still would have dropped.

In order for Australia to remain competitive with its main trading partners, the drop in the $AUS was vital.

Australias 10 Main Trading Partners ( accounts for 75% of all trade )




Sth Korea.6.8%







On a weighted average, Australias 10 main trading partners have devalued 20% to the $US since July 97.

So at the moment ( future is uncertain ) , Australias decision to sell 167t of gold was a wise decision. They have a paper profit of 33.6% the $Aus is trading where it probably would be even if they hadnt sold the gold, and in $Aus terms the gold price is near its 2 year high.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 03:59 - ID#257148)
Gum Sarn ....*is.....coming....

not at all. I never thought you were insulting our currency. Why, our Mickey Mouse money ( apologies to crusty ) is as good as few others, and worse than most.

OK, So what do I do to start the "Gild Noo Zild" campaign?

Our Reserve Bank, to whom I gave kitco's URL several months ago, is within legislated for constraints ( 0-3% ) inflation, stands laissez-faire against our ( continuing ) currency depreciation, keeps its eyes focused on a Monetary Conditions Index, whose details I am to salty to write about right now owns NO gold.

Yet these fair isles do team with gold. From the Coromandel in the North Island ( Martha Hill ) to the Macraes mine in North Otago, South Island. There are numerous small family gold ventures on the W Coast. ( No there ain't. Yes there is ) Most of the gold is exported in bars. A dreadful missed opportunity to add value to a natural resource.


what else do you have?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:02 - ID#224363)
@ CompGeek: Mon Jun 15 1998 22:57
Rather than being the trigger event, I think that Y2K will just be one more event in a string of events that will alter the global economy for quite a long time.

The list of negatives is actually fairly long right now. We have the problems in asia and a stock market looking for a reason to drop. We have a lot of personal investors who starting to think maybe, just maybe, its time to take profit and get out. We have weak commodities. We have weak currencies ( except for the $US ) and in 18 months, we have the Y2K.

How does 5-8 years of bad times sound ?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:13 - ID#255151)
Here's Some Cheery News

Kitco has spot Gold up $2.00, Silver up .03 at 04:01 New York time. Sadly, Platinum is down $2.50. Off to sleep now, got a busy week ahead. Go Gold!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:32 - ID#206358)
After nearly 350 days of the meltdown of asia crisis,the situations over here still looks negative aand despair.From South east asia,to east asia,soutern america and spread out liked disease.The imf come,world bank stop over,g7,united nation urgent meeting...ect!!Whatever the acts or GAMES they show were just fantastic and superb!In sometimes you thought is the best solution ,you feel so ..."this is the time..RIGHT?!"..The next moment you peep the stocks ,currencies down so sharply...just liked the sky fall..SHXT!Go'nna run for cover!

Yes,we can "LIE" but we can not hide to this atmosphere and moments!
The crimes news,jobless,retrenchment,inflations,bankcrupcys,internal politic powerwar,civil war,riots ( indo ) ,..change of the "LIFE STYLE"!Dairy news just pressed harder and harder...suicide rates are increacing everyday.Banks,corp,srvices trading,contructions all"HIT HARD AND PALAlised"..Some just dying..!We are just liked fish out of the water.

In my sincere opinions ( hope wrong ) !I think the show is carry on like "DALLAS"...long and last for episodes.Th economy war is struggled around HONGKONG,CHINA AND JAPAN. ( The stocks and currencies still gaps to down ) .The civil and internal wars already start to show up in tHAILAND,MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA..A BIT FROM AUATRALIA! ( asked P.hansen ) .

Dairy towards the dairy life is change.I'm not sure which,what ,where we asian are heading to in next century 2000!?Off course,we always have the bright side...still how long can we stand for...?

Gold market demand very low...terrible!I hardly sold 250 grams in retail markets and kilo in the whole sale dairy!I have to work for hundreds years compared to RJ weekly sale...hehehhe..!

Sorry for poor grammer and i think i'll improved since i got more time with this dead machine!!

still go on...JIN!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:33 - ID#206358)
After nearly 350 days of the meltdown of asia crisis,the situations over here still looks negative aand despair.From South east asia,to east asia,soutern america and spread out liked disease.The imf come,world bank stop over,g7,united nation urgent meeting...ect!!Whatever the acts or GAMES they show were just fantastic and superb!In sometimes you thought is the best solution ,you feel so ..."this is the time..RIGHT?!"..The next moment you peep the stocks ,currencies down so sharply...just liked the sky fall..SHXT!Go'nna run for cover!

Yes,we can "LIE" but we can not hide to this atmosphere and moments!
The crimes news,jobless,retrenchment,inflations,bankcrupcys,internal politic powerwar,civil war,riots ( indo ) ,..change of the "LIFE STYLE"!Dairy news just pressed harder and harder...suicide rates are increacing everyday.Banks,corp,srvices trading,contructions all"HIT HARD AND PALAlised"..Some just dying..!We are just liked fish out of the water.

In my sincere opinions ( hope wrong ) !I think the show is carry on like "DALLAS"...long and last for episodes.Th economy war is struggled around HONGKONG,CHINA AND JAPAN. ( The stocks and currencies still gaps to down ) .The civil and internal wars already start to show up in tHAILAND,MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA..A BIT FROM AUATRALIA! ( asked P.hansen ) .

Dairy towards the dairy life is change.I'm not sure which,what ,where we asian are heading to in next century 2000!?Off course,we always have the bright side...still how long can we stand for...?

Gold market demand very low...terrible!I hardly sold 250 grams in retail markets and kilo in the whole sale dairy!I have to work for hundreds years compared to RJ weekly sale...hehehhe..!

Sorry for poor grammer and i think i'll improved since i got more time with this dead machine!!

still go on...JIN!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:34 - ID#206358)
After nearly 350 days of the meltdown of asia crisis,the situations over here still looks negative aand despair.From South east asia,to east asia,soutern america and spread out liked disease.The imf come,world bank stop over,g7,united nation urgent meeting...ect!!Whatever the acts or GAMES they show were just fantastic and superb!In sometimes you thought is the best solution ,you feel so ..."this is the time..RIGHT?!"..The next moment you peep the stocks ,currencies down so sharply...just liked the sky fall..SHXT!Go'nna run for cover!

Yes,we can "LIE" but we can not hide to this atmosphere and moments!
The crimes news,jobless,retrenchment,inflations,bankcrupcys,internal politic powerwar,civil war,riots ( indo ) ,..change of the "LIFE STYLE"!Dairy news just pressed harder and harder...suicide rates are increacing everyday.Banks,corp,srvices trading,contructions all"HIT HARD AND PALAlised"..Some just dying..!We are just liked fish out of the water.

In my sincere opinions ( hope wrong ) !I think the show is carry on like "DALLAS"...long and last for episodes.Th economy war is struggled around HONGKONG,CHINA AND JAPAN. ( The stocks and currencies still gaps to down ) .The civil and internal wars already start to show up in tHAILAND,MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA..A BIT FROM AUATRALIA! ( asked P.hansen ) .

Dairy towards the dairy life is change.I'm not sure which,what ,where we asian are heading to in next century 2000!?Off course,we always have the bright side...still how long can we stand for...?

Gold market demand very low...terrible!I hardly sold 250 grams in retail markets and kilo in the whole sale dairy!I have to work for hundreds years compared to RJ weekly sale...hehehhe..!

Sorry for poor grammer and i think i'll improved since i got more time with this dead machine!!

still go on...JIN!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 04:45 - ID#250121)

I am glad you will be spending longer at your computer. We shall all benefit from your posts. I have heard from TED, he is very well, and should by now have finished the foundations. He hopes to have built his basement by 30/6.

You were asking for help finding links to teach you more about trading and options & futures, did you get the help you were seeking? Do you need more links?


(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:06 - ID#250121)
poised to prfot

hanging by a "golden" thread
over a Dow, dark chasm
stretching for a strawberry



(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:12 - ID#284255)
Why the gold spike?
GCQ8 has a price spike along with a volume spike at around 22.30pm

This sort of movement during the dead of the night in the US is unusual.
It looks like an information spike, that one gets in small goldies.

What was the news???

(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:13 - ID#39857)
re my Fists of Rightous Harmony post! Check this out too. WAR CRIMES HMMMMMM

(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:16 - ID#224363)
@Vronsky - Japanese Gold Purchase
Don't know if this theory has been tabled yet but...

Somewhere I recall reading that the potential for the creation of a new Japanese bank exists and that the new bank would be created to absorb a small number of the weaker banks. If this was true and sanctioned by the Japanese Gov't ( as it would have to be ) , could the rumoured gold purchases be directed towards backing this new bank ?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:19 - ID#284255)
Aurator of history
Perhaps we'll have to get Maui to sharpen his hooks
And get a few of his mates to help.
Seems that would be what's needed
To get that ithmus ( sp ) up above sea level.

The new island sth of OZ to surface is Orange Roughy country.
Lots of seamounts popping up out of ++500 metre deep water.

There goes the roughy industry.
Who needs GPS's when you can sea where you're steaming?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:43 - ID#288295)
sharefin @ 01:25, Squirrel
I imagine that the following is the survey you referenced:

John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 05:51 - ID#24135)
Right On
Crystal Ball ..
Only one person could have such
bad taste and be so obnoxious ..
the little gritty bum .. complete
with pretentious new moniker.
Maybe some day he'll be put in
space by accident .. I can always

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:02 - ID#284255)
After midnight Dad's prose comes alive.

Two men in every man I see
And all of us half knowing
Which of these men we be

Who choose the better way
They overcome
The burden of their day

Or wrong the choice
Condemn ourselves
To the bitterness of remorse

Before the naval battle of Salamis in September 480 B.C. Themistocles thus persuaded the Greek captains who were undecided to engage the immensely superior Persian fleet.
'In every man there are two men, one base, one noble; and we shape our lives as we choose between them. The easy way is cheap but the man so defeated pays for his choice as long as he lives; while that man who chooses to be brave, and risk the prize of the good life, will die with glory, or live in honour, and this is our choice today.'
The Greek captains chose the better way and though outnumbered more than ten to one destroyed the Persian navy.

And so will be it amongst noble goldbugs in the years to follow.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:07 - ID#26793)
London morning gold fix $286.40

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:15 - ID#26793)
U.K. inflation at a 6 year high.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:20 - ID#26793)
So. Korean stocks hit an 11 year low

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
The weak Australian dollar is blamed on low gold prices and the weak yen.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:35 - ID#26793)
Is the yen plunge really bad for Asia?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:39 - ID#253418)
Random musings
Thanks for the post Hedgehog at 5:13 with the reference to the Hanlin Library and Boxer Rebellion history. WELL WORTH THE READ by anybody interested in understanding more about pre communist China. I disagree with the standard evil and manipulative protrayal of the Douager Emperess, TZU HSI, and her role contianed in this piece, however. She is a very misunderstood woman. For those interested in a complete view of her times ( 1840 - 1910 ) get a copy of Sterling Seagrave's DRAGON LADY. Mr. Seagrave has two other books on China which, if read, complete the picture of the most recent two centuries of fascinating, unbelievable, relatively unknown Chinese history.

Most interesting suggestion, earlier, that the Japanese rumored purchase of gold may be for a bank to bail out failed institutions in Japan. Probably a great idea, along with the sale of a few T bonds to finance addition gold purchases. However, I doubt the Japanese have that much imagination, much less the capability to pull off such a crative idea to restore confidence. Too bad, it would probably work.

Lastly, I am fascinated by the fact that those posts, here, dealing with the Y2K issue seem to be the longest on the board. Seems when the authors get going they can think of everything imaginable coming to a complete stop as a result of computers not being able to recognize the year 2000. Yes, much is interrelated on this planet and I suppose as the date draws nearer it will get the play due the end of the world, only in the end not to be.

Gold up $1.40 and Silver up three cents in London a half hour ago. The S&P Globex has reversed about 40% of yesterday's loss. Will the dipsters ever get hit two days in a row. I only wish I had had such blind confidence. Then again, maybe I do that declining silver stocks at comex will eventually lead to a price for silver reflective of a shortage. What foolishness.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:49 - ID#253418)
Chinese history
Again for those interested ( and we should all be ) in pre Communist Chinese history of the 1835- 1948 period AND the current influence of Chinese througout Asia may I recommend:

Sterling Seagraves DRAGON LADY and an earlier book THE SOONG DYNASTY, also to complete the picture read his THE OVERSEAS CHINESE.

All the above can be obtained from

You won't be able to put them down.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:53 - ID#341189)
pretty weak bounce, so far.
Given the prsent quotes on gold and the pound, gold is down in pounds. Should be at 286.60 US to be even.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 06:54 - ID#253418)
Gold up $1.60, Silver up 4 cents at 6:15am
Interest rates seem higher on the short end as well. S&P Globex up 1000.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:01 - ID#287367)
@ EB
island reversal in the US dollar !!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:03 - ID#284255)
Net reality
If people think that Kitco is the only forum that has food fights, they
should read this.
While your post does contain a certain element of humor,it adds no
facts or useful insights into this issue of systematic interconnections.
While I have only been lurking for a short spell I have seen this same
thing happen to informative threads: it begins with a solid question or
presentation of facts and there is civil communication until along comes
egos intent more on flaming than analyzing facts or exchanging
details.Pretty soon the whole affair becomes little more than monday
night wrestling in cy2k and reasonable conclusions are thrown to the
four winds.
I wonder how many other lurkers there are like me who have a million
questions about y2k but are timid to enter the newsgroup because of the
senseless batter and bashing.You know the newsgroup is growing because
common non-techinical people are realizing there really is a big-time
problem that will affect them personally and they seek answers not
clever yet childish mental ping-pong games.
Now Tom Wheelers advice on learning some 19th century skills and
setting a time table on personally acessing the damage of y2k by years
end does not seem unreasonable,out in left feild nor in no way meritting
a flaming,however humorous.
This is a Real problem,and there are Real people who seek Real
understanding because there is a Real chance this thing coud be
life-threaten at worst and pocketbook disaster at best.
I believe Monday night wrestling has its own newsgroup....I wish the
flamewars would go there and we could just stick to facts and civil
opions and debate based upon those facts.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:18 - ID#289357)
sharefin @ Food Fights

It doesn't bother me - I just skip over all of the ( lengthy ) BS from the 3 or 4 individuals who seem to have an ongoing war of egos. But it should disturb Bart, who incidentally pays for all of this nonsense in wasted band width. Perhaps everyone needs to chill a little, and pay attention to our host's requests.


Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any groups race, religion, or ethnic background.

Dont use profanities or foul language.

Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that provoke other participants.

Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to arouse a strong emotional response.

Don't use the group as a medium for promoting websites in which you have an interest. Place a listing instead in our "Web Resource Links" section. It's free.

Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our Classified Ads section. It's also free.

Don't participate as an investor if your interest is really in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the Classified Ads instead.

What to do when somebody breaks the "DONT" rules

Absolutely ignore the remarks. No response is the best response. If the abuse continues notify the system administrator and they will handle it.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:34 - ID#347267)
Peace and Quiet
Thank goodness for this "quiet time" without the juvenile temper tantrums from the monumental ego. Gives one a sense of being able to think and reflect on the important things of life, like family, friends, and our internet "family" in Kitcoland. It takes all kinds, I know, but it is most distracting and sometimes disturbing. And frustrating as in our life where we have to live and deal with family members who are in someways troubled, or have serious problems which we must help them through because they are our family and we love them.

Markets: A review of marketr indices this morning shows many breaking down and in some cases already back to the levels of Feb-Mar 98. Gentlemen, we are seeing the tracks of a big bear, and should conduct ourselves accordingly. Remember that rallies in bear markets can be quick and sharp, IMO best to use them to initiate new short positions. Someone on another forum asked for a recap of bear market mutual funds. My experience has been with RYURX Rydex Ursa and BEARX Prudent Bear. Anyone know of others?? I have been looking at COAGX Caldwell orkin Market Opportunity which seems to be swimming against the tide and making progress; any experience with it? ( Have ordered prospectus ) . Ursa is probably the purer play, as BEARX is subject to David Tice's selection of stocks to short, some of which many people will hold forever regardless ( like IBM ) . I am retaining only a small ( 5% ) position in GOLDX Gabelli Gold and CEF Central Fund of Canada until more positive signs emerge. I like the 25% at a time approach. My permanent core stocks ( major oils and utilities ) are now almost offset with BEARX and RYURX and is the first 25%. I am planning to add another 25% to URSA when the next spike up ( greater than 150 DOW points ) occurs.

It has been a long time since the last big bear; warrants looking back at the charts and figuring the percentage of losses. If you experienced the long bear of the 70's, warrants recalling the feelings of fear and frustration ( I did not have much then,but got hurt; some of not much is a lot!! ) . Enough rambling. I wish all good luck.

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:46 - ID#347267)
Should have said "Gentlemen AND LADIES" !!!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:46 - ID#288369)
My prayers today are for the swift and complete recovery of your wife. May God be with you.

Okie crude: $9./bbl........ohmy. Time to pull up the britches, cinch in the belt and get to work.

To the avid, ARTICULATE ARGUEISTS........The crowd has left the building.

GO GOLDBUGS!!!!! Eat more beef, buy more gold, spill more gasoline and throw more coins into the fountain!!! ;^ ) ~

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:52 - ID#57232)
Thank you
Silverbaron: The voice of reason still exists on Kitco. Thanks for reminding us all what to do when the foodfights begin. My attempts at making peace between the sparring parties had little effect. I should have known better.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:53 - ID#248180)
IMF - Gold "Selling The Gold Could Send the Wrong Signals"

Monday June 15, 9:37 pm Eastern Time
U.S. still balking on IMF cash as others pay up
By Janet Guttsman
WASHINGTON, June 15 ( Reuters ) - The United States still holds the key to new money for the cash-strapped International Monetary Fund even after Germany offered the fund a big boost in resources on Monday.

International monetary sources said they hoped Germany's decision to approve a $6.3 billion increase in its quota to the IMF would encourage U.S. lawmakers to follow suit.

``I'm very pleased about Germany,'' said one monetary source, who asked not to be named. ``It is our strong hope that the U.S. will process this quota increase as soon as possible, but we should not put undue pressure on them. It is their decision.''

Germany was the second major country to approve additional funding for the IMF, which is short of cash after it loaned billions of dollars to Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea last year. Japan approved a $6.7 billion quota increase last month.

``The IMF's normal financial resources are approaching a historically low level and the IMF does not have sufficient funds to deal with a truly major crisis, for instance if the Asia crisis were to worsen or if a new crisis were to develop,'' U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said last week in his latest plea to Congress to approve the U.S. quota increase.

The quotas, reviewed periodically to take account of changing prices and changing needs, are effectively a country's subscription to the IMF. The money is paid into IMF reserves and they help determine how much the IMF can afford to lend.

But a quota increase will only take effect when countries holding 85 percent of the votes at the international lending institution agree to the change, and the IMF has set itself a January 1999 deadline to approve the increase.

The United States, the world's biggest economy, has almost 18 percent of the votes, enough to block a change.

Rubin wants Congress to make $18 billion of U.S. funds available to the IMF, but the request has stalled in the House of Representatives, where lawmakers want the IMF to open up its books and publish information on budgets and staff reports.

``Without these documents, it will not be possible for House members to make an informed decision on additional funding for the IMF, and we are highly reluctant to schedule an IMF vote under those circumstances,'' Republican leaders of the House said in a letter to President Bill Clinton last week.

Without the U.S. cash, the IMF would be forced to look for other ways to raise money to help countries suffering from the contagious Asian economic flu, perhaps including tapping an emergency resource known as the General Agreements to Borrow.

Ideas floated in the past have included selling some of the IMF gold reserves, although the sources said this idea had not been raised recently.

``I do not think gold sales are an easy way out, rather they could send the wrong signals to the markets and the general public, signaling that the fund is in effect selling the family silver,'' a second monetary source said.

The first source put it more bluntly. ``We could not get a consensus for gold sales at this stage,'' he said.

IMF gold reserves total 103.4 million fine ounces.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:54 - ID#57232)
Best wishes for your wife!
Gollum: These days coronary surgery is usually quick overall, with recovery within days. I wish your family the best --

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:58 - ID#45173)
Japan needs to clean up its mess -- the economics is easy and the politics is hard
"If one wants to see what must be done, look what the United States had to do in the 1980s in the collapse of its savings and loan system. Equity has to replace debt. Companies and banks that have gone broke are closed down. Their assets are sold for whatever they will bring on the open market. Foreigners are allowed to buy to ensure that the highest prices possible are gotten. Shareholders lose all their equity. Top managers are fired whether they are, or are not, personally to blame. Employees often lose their jobs. If laws have been violated, chief executives are thown in jail. If politicians have helped them break those laws, politicians are thrown in jail. Since the sale of assets will not yield enough to cover bank depositors, the taxpayer has to make up the difference.

"At some price every asset becomes a good asset. Good firms can be created when debts are written down. In the process of cleaning up the mess, Asia will in effect have shifted from a debt-based model of corporate finance to an equity-based model of corporate finance.

"Once the mess has been cleaned up, Asia also has to realize that the game has changed. The era of export led growth is over. It works when only a few countries want to play the game, but does not work when everyone wants to play the game. With a global economy growing at 2.5 - 3 percent a year, everyone's exports cannot grow at 15 - 20 percent per year.

"Economics is cyclical. America is up today, but tomorrow?"

Lester C Thurow
Boston Globe

(Tue Jun 16 1998 07:59 - ID#255226)
Gold - Crawford
Arch Crawford shorted Gold yesterday st 287.20 ( aug ) he's looking for a major low 6/25.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:01 - ID#432157)
Who is ARCH CRAWFORD ??????

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:02 - ID#427357)

During the week of June 8, 1998 several rumors reverberated

around the Internet that Japan had recently purchased up to 400

tonnes of gold. Many financially knowledgeable and

well-connected financial types and organizations have reported

the alleged event however,

A spokesman for the internationally known gold consultant,

VENEROSA ASSOCIATES, stated it has received information

from several sources stating the Japanese bought 400 tonnes of

gold ( via the Swiss ) .

The Japanese are NOT going to jump from the frying pan into the

fire by selling PAPER TO BUY OTHER PAPER. They have NO


when the BOJ's plan becomes a fait accompli.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:06 - ID#45173)
Junior: cracks in the "Gold is Dead" PR machine, IMF not on the payroll?
From your earlier post:

"'I do not think gold sales are an easy way out, rather they could send the wrong signals to the markets and the general public, signaling that the fund is in effect selling the family silver,' a second monetary source said.'

"The first source put it more bluntly. 'We could not get a consensus for gold sales at this stage,' he said.

"IMF gold reserves total 103.4 million fine ounces."

The IMF keeps gold reserves and considers them to be akin to "the family silver"? Someone has neglected to tell the IMF that gold has no monetary value, that it's just an industrial commodity.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:09 - ID#248180)
Bloomberg Reports -"Japan may sell US$ - About Time!!
U.S. Bonds Slump as Japan Threatens to Sell Dollars
U.S. bonds fell, posting their biggest loss in more than seven weeks as the dollar fell against the yen after Japan said it and other countries will act to bolster the beleaguered Japanese currency. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond yield fell 7/8, or $8.75 per $1000 bond, to 107 1/16, its biggest decline since April 27, when the Wall Street Journal reported the Federal Reserve had adopted a bias toward higher interest rates. The yield rose 5 basis points to 5.63 percent, from a record low of 5.58 percent yesterday. The two-year note's yield rose 6 basis points to 5.45 percent.

Dollar Declines as Japan Could Sell Dollars for Yen
The dollar retreated more than 1 percent from an eight-year high set against the yen yesterday, and fell against the deutsche mark after Japan said it and other countries will act to bolster the yen. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Koji Tanami said central banks from major industrialized nations won't let the yen weaken further against the dollar, suggesting central banks are prepared to sell dollars jointly. The dollar fell to 144.74 yen after yesterday reaching 146.78, its highest level since Aug. 22, 1990. The dollar fell to 1.8001 marks, from 1.8144 late yesterday.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:11 - ID#347447)
I've been away awhile, so I do not know what is happening with gollum and his wife, but it seems there is a problem. My heartfelt wishes for good fortune for them both.

GOLDFEVR: David, I love your poetry, but Kosovo won't start a gold bull. Only a major cyclical asset inversion typical of those at the end of decades long stock & bond bulls will do it. All that good green paper & credit ( the GREEN-span ) has to get likky-dayted and spill out into real things. It will. It'll be fun for holders of gold. It always is. THEN, wars, rumors of war, and civil disturbances will HELP the gold bull, but not cause it. It is a MONETARY thing, ze golde bulle! Eet eez!

LIBERTY: SSC mined some gold in days gone by. It is one of those pesky facts of life that when you're making holes in the ground looking for silver, that gold stuff sometimes gets in the way. Best thing is to mine it out of the way and sell it as a by-product. No? We got a silver property in the Southwest just like that. Nice silver values, then we find gold too! Takes up a lot of room silver coulda occupied, but, hey, what the hell. The Earth is big enuf, right?

EJ: Re promotion of gold, you are right, except I might add that God IS on the side of gold too! It's mentioned as a precious commodity in the bible, and all things spiritual are likened to it ( and, yea, exceed it...but the spiritual always DOES exceed the material ) . God has indeed decreed gold to be the true money of Earth. And mankind has historically agreed. It is nature's way of showing us the money. Natural law regulates the degree the gold money supply may be increased by intelligence, productivity, and human labor. Not by the whim of some greedy or stupid politico, or central banker in cahoots with government. No, my friend, I think God IS on gold's side too! Would that only the WGC were, ey?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:19 - ID#248180)
@ Warm Fuzzy Feelings - It's all there. Cracks on that whore's (IMF) face.
EJ, oh yes we are agreed. I was certain when I posted that article that most here would pick-up on the portions that you selected and re-posted. Thanks.
What the heck happened to this site over the last couple of days?
Did the few forget the masses, with personal and petty abuses of each other?
Come on people let us have some FUN. Lighten up already.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:20 - ID#45173)
Mike Sheller: Yikes! I just had an epiphany!
It's something many here have said for a long time but I think I might finally "get it." Paper dollars are debt instruments. They look just like the dollars that were certificates in the past but they are not. Their value is in the eyes of the beholder, based on the perceived value of assets behind it. If God forbid we do experience a depression, and the money supply collapses and cash becomes dear, dollars might actually lose value. Usually cash is king in a deflation, but cash might be trash in this one, because the dollar may depreciate faster than anything else.
Does this make sense to you?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:21 - ID#284255)
Gollum - For you and yours - may the river run deep.
In a bright clear dream
This woman looked at me.
I met her glance,
And held my place,
Though attracted by the strength,
That glowed calm peaceful,
In her eyes, her face.

Later we met again. She spoke,
"I have heard", she said, "that between
a man and a woman,
there is a level field whereon
they may in safety meet.

So with an old world courtesy
My mother taught to me,
I answered honestly
"if that is so it is well said".

She smiled at me and I unbent
Now both are well content
With an understanding
Of the mystery resolved
On that fair field
And all our days have been
A rich unfolding of
Life's oldest sweetest theme.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:22 - ID#432157)
Japan GOLD


Is there any way we can prove this ?????

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:26 - ID#411331)
@Junior: It's about time indeed. I wonder if Japan waited to sell
its US bond holdings until the American equities markets had established
a definite down trend. Let me see, US stocks are declining, US bonds are declining, and the US buck is finally declining. Now where can a
world investor place wealth in a form which will not shrink? Oh yes,
Japan bought 400 tons of gold last week, and gold is up almost $2 this
morning in London. Could this be the turn around that gold bugs have
been waiting for?

But lease rates have only risen from 1.31 to 1.55% for gold. So the
gold carry trade is still on, and will stay on until CBs wake up to
the damage they are doing to the value of their monetary gold reserves.
If the value of the US dollar continues to slide, it will be interesting
to see if the CBs raise their lease rates to compensate for the depreciation of their other reserve asset -the US buck.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:34 - ID#411331)
@ EJ Isn't what you are describing called 'stagflation'?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:36 - ID#248180)
Gollum to your Wonderful Wife and Mine. We are blessed men.
GOLLUM: Kind wishes and may God bless her with her former health.
from Proverbs 31: A good wife who can find her? She is more precious than jewels. The heart of her husband trusts in her, and he will have no lack of gain. Her children call her blessed and her husband praises her. Many women have done excellently, but you surpass them all.
Charm is deceitful and beauty is vain, but a women/wife who fears the Lord is to be praised.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:43 - ID#50148)
What' this?
A whiff of inflation in the air????? Look at that Globex, or should I say Blobex, go.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:43 - ID#290172)
Donald, re: your 06:35 (and 'Good Morning!)
"The central bank governor, Dai Xianglong, has been trying to make China
appear virtuous, saying a stable yuan - against the dollar - hurts. Indeed it does. But it is hard to see how any of China's major trade partners can be blamed. China's trade surplus is second only to that of Japan." Thank you! {:- )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:46 - ID#410198)
Gollum,let me add my voice..... wish your wife a speedy recovery

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:50 - ID#374204)
MJPL 00:59 post - POG & Long Bond
Good observation, with nice back-up by Dirt & Gollum.
I was not aware of it.
Shows this site at its best.
Are you able to show charts here?

Anyway, good morning to all. What's cookin' for breakfast?
US$ down - a tad. GM down - a pinch. Gold up overnite - 2 tsp.

Smells pretty good from here.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:50 - ID#300202)
Window Into The Future????
FWIW-Saw a moving van blow by my res. Emblem on side-United States
Navy Seals. Appeared to be heading towards North Sydney ( Newfoundland
Ferry Terminal ) towards humungous NATO exercises being carried out in
Stepenville, Nfld. Newfoundlanders at least excited about the cash cow
in sleepy Atlantic Canada

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:51 - ID#402148)
Be aware Crawford's shorting record stinks. His Hulbert high performer ranking is if you got to cash rather than take his shorting ideas. Tried trading off his astro line and lost a bundle.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:52 - ID#434108)
EJ's "epiphany"- paper dollars as debt instrumemnts& Mike Sheller
Ann Rand had some clear tho caustic ways ... ( -she'd have fit-in at kitco, to be sure ) ...ways of describing the un-backed, paper dollar: I recall one of them ... some thing like: ""The U.S. dollar has become an
'I.O.U. nothing' ..whereas it 'once' upon a time was an 'I.O.U. so many ounces of gold' ."" She also called it - the paper dollar - the government's 'blank-check'...and she warned of the rueful day when it would "bounce" ....seems we're approaching that fateful day, at ever accelerating speed.

Notwithstanding current respit of yen intervention, and surface rallies in market indexes & averages.

The Titanic-world-economy continues to hemorrhage: ...but that's 'ok'.... "Go back to your 'state-room' and get some more sleep.

"OUR Titanic is invincible, unsinkable -- esp. America's economy!"

Mike Sheller, thanks for your recent post advising me that "Kosovos" do not make gold bulls. Did the gold rally of '86-87 classify as a gold bull, or the gold-rally of of '93 ...did that qualify as a bull market in gold?

I think your post memntioned "real goods" again...I must re-write my earlier post, in response to someone else's "real-wealth" post; it reminds me of yours.

Regarding 'Kosovo', I guess it's might be my errant ego again ...wanting to 'hit a nail on the head'. But let me say this: I think the 'Kosovo' tinder-box is under-rated, and not appreciated here in the 'West'. I think there exists the very real possibility of a wider Balkan war, one that can spread like a slow-moving, seething wild-fire of ancient hatreds & bitterness -- rooted in ethnic, racial & religious divisions. It has the very real danger of spreading - to engulf many other nations, Greece & Turkey, and many others.

There is always some proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back"....and starts the next major world conflagration, &/ot that triggers or starts the next major bull market in gold. I did not mean to imply that Kosovo would cause or create "a gold - bull - market", amd I do not think I said that. But Kosovo, in my ( not always humble ) opinion, will very possibly, very likely ... be the fuse ... the straw that breaks the camel's back.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:53 - ID#248180)
EPIPHANY - Wet Dreams & Lisps
EJ - Explain the feelings one experiences when one has an epiphany.
Epiphany is very difficult to articulate and pronounce if one speaks with a lisp. Try it. Maybe you can say hey I just had a wet dream, that is easier if you have a lisp. All the best. Cheers & good night from the Great Land that is OZ & Under, holding the rest of the world up.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:56 - ID#342315)
Gollum re wife
I see messages about your wife! Don't know details, but don't need to- A BUNCH of good luck and prayers for y'all. No need to reply

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:57 - ID#347447)
In a deflation, or Depression ( the effects of the deflation ) a fiat money central bank/government will reflate as quickly as possible. As with Japan. This does not necessarily mean instant INflation as in rising prices for real goods, etc, but it does mean an attempt to stave off "total collapse" of favored or key institutions in the culture - ie: banks, utilities, brokerages, treasuries, foundational industries, institutions,etc. This is the mistake which prevents the cure. The cure is WASHOUT and economic failure. Then the institutions that fail can be replaced by more rational constructions. If this is "prevented" as in Japan today, total currency debasement is the result ( the currency sinks into "de basement" ) .
Today the dollar is a currency haven, but if there were an economic collapse in America, the same mindset would seek to "preserve" institutions from failure, and a form of hyperinflation, or at least severe currency dilution would be the result, eventually. So I agree, that a depression would dilute purchasing power EVENTUALLY, because of the REACTION of government to the crisis, rather than allowing the natural curative of cash becoming king with a stable money supply. If this precedent were allowed, all the corrupt and inefficient bullsh*t we have built in the last 70 years would collapse, government would have no toys to control, and worse, the unit purchase power of money would strengthen, thus demonstrating that without constant inflation, savings CAN have, and increase in, value, and there is no need for government transfer programs like SS, and other schemes. Then gold would become the real money again, and we simplycan't have that, can we? Great day all, I've got to shuffle off to earn some of those notes.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:59 - ID#288186)
Latest CPI numbers...
08:30 CPI UP 1.5% RATE SO FAR IN 1998.
08:30 CPI UP 1.7% IN PAST 12 MONTHS.
08:29 MAY CPI UP 0.3%; CORE UP 0.2%.
A little higher than the street expected. If we see more numbers
like this, the inflation fears will really start picking up...

(Tue Jun 16 1998 08:59 - ID#50148)
Food for thought...
Bond yields are still high, note the chart at the bottom of the article.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:01 - ID#50148)
One more time.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:04 - ID#26793)
@SDRer; this is the phrase from that article that bothers me the most.
"If a weak yen does the opposite, bringing back modest inflation and thus a desire to spend, it should be welcomed."

As deflation progresses we will be hearing a lot more of these calls for inflation to bail out the debtors. I think they will, and should, fail. The debtors represent a large and powerful constituency. We will find out if John Exeter ( I think ) was right when he said: "the market is the master of us all"

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:09 - ID#43349)
There is a certain air of excitement in the air. There is some reason to
suppose that several world banks are coming to realize ( what took them so
long? ) that the chaotic conditions in the banking community is due not
so much to the yen and other asian currencies being too low as it is
to the $US being too high.

Japan would never have been able to support it's currency effecitvely on
it's own, but if yje situation is interpreted not so much as supporting
the yen as it is in removing support for the $US, it becomes possible
for Japan to enlist allies.

As several world banks begin to sell dollars the dollar will drop and
we will see an immediate increase in apparent inflation. Foreign banks
selling dollars instead of holding them idle as reserves has the same
effect as printing dollars.

Inflation rates increasing could well trigger even more abandonment of the $US and a new rush of flight money away from US paper.

I wish I could stay more in touch with these dramatic events that are going to be unfolding this week and the next, but ever since my wife's
heart attack last Friday and her upcoming bypass operation this Wednesday
I have been spending more of my time over at the hospital, Which is where
I am going now. So long for now.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:11 - ID#248180)
Some thing we will see a lot more of in the Future. New Boy in Town
Home Currency
USD United States Dollars

New Currency

United States Dollar ( USD )
0.910747EUR Euro Spot

1.00 United States Dollar is equal to 0.910747 Euro Spot

Now, Good night to All at last. Y'all Have a good day.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:21 - ID#286230)
Wombat Re: Your Date: Tue Jun 16 1998 03:50
Congratulations. You have put the wisdom of gold sales by Australia into the correct light. I think it is the first description of the wisdom of that sale and by extension the earlier sales of Canada that I have seen around here. If the A$ and the C$ where worth more of a US$ both countries would be in much worse shape with their exports than they are at present. As soon as arguments contain the idea that not selling gold would have been a good idea because the value of the C$ and the A$ would be higher against the US$ you know the writer hasn't a clue --just a chant.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:24 - ID#286230)
Good Luck Gollum
(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:28 - ID#434108)
"weak yen" ...Donald & SDR
( Forgive my impulse to add my 2-cents: )

...from the previously mentioned article, that you rightly question:
"If a weak yen does the opposite, bringing back modest inflation and thus a desire to spend, it should be welcomed."

And, yes, the 'market is indeed master of us all'.

In this game of depreciating currencies, to stimulate demand, just like lowering interest rates, to do the same...this 'game' ... can endure as long as the users of that money & credit, are willing to use it. All the manipulating of currenciy values and credit costs, in the final analysis, cannot succeed at manipulating and controlling human-beings in their buy & sell decisions....only the 'market' itself provides the
mechanism/forum/meeting-place for their innately freedom-based
meet in the marriage/joining of supply and demand.

The powers that be ( -or used to be, but fading fast ) ... can depreciate, inflate, or contract, 'appreciate' all the currencies & credit instruments they can come up with... but in the final analysis - as defined as "velocity of money" ...they cannot manipulate, control and push on the proverbial string...they cannot force the people to sonsume/spend/invest...if they don't want to. If 'velocity' ( -rate of turnover of use of money ) falls/collapses ... that is - if the willingness to use that money/currency - falls/collapses ....then
there is nothing the powers that be, can do about it,
but collapse too.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:33 - ID#300202)
Shud have read Stephenvile, Nfld
Prayers extended to Gollum/family.Look fwd to ur rtn & quality non argumentative posts. God Bless.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:37 - ID#411331)
@ Gollum: Best wishes for the speedy recovery of your wife.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:44 - ID#411331)
@all: The Kitco PM chart is ALL GREEN! Gold is up $2.90. How
long has it been since we saw this phenomena!?????

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:48 - ID#254269)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:49 - ID#254269)
Good morning all. Been out of town for a few days. Just getting caught up.
@ Gollum, just noticed your posts re your wife. My prayers are with you for her speedy recovery. Really enjoy your posts.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:49 - ID#185448)

V= ( P*Q ) /MS
You can alter V by changing MS or P - both in the hands of them ( also Q, but lets forget that for the moment ) . Usually changes in V derieve from changes in MS.
Says "Quantity-equation of money", an old neoclassical hat.
IMHO, the effect will be triggered by a decline in consumer/company confidence, thus affecting Q.
(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:50 - ID#434108)
Russia's oppposition to NATO military intervention in Kosovo
(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:53 - ID#434108)
velocity// Fred@Vienna
"confidence" or lack/collapse thereof, is another way of
saying the same thing


(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:55 - ID#242325)
Dow 1300
ROR: I enjoy many of your posts, but your recent projection of Dow 1300 damages your credibility. Do you relly believe this or are you playing devil's advocate? To many this forecast puts you in the financial lunatic fringe. Even the Asian markets have not gone down this much.

I too believe a bear has begun and the time has arrived to sell rallies instead of buying dips. But I project a 30-50% drop the next few years. Pretty horrendous, but not the end of the world.

Bill Buckler: I do not think manipulation is the prime factor behind gold's latest fall. Just the fact that the Asian crisi is deflationary for the US and Europe. And contrary to what some here assert, deflation is bearish for gold unless it gets so bad that the authorities move to aggressively reflate. This certainly is what the hedge funds believe.

In fact I suspect that AG would not mind seeing gold back over $300. This would signal an easing of deflationary fears.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:57 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Gold Mining Index McClellan Summation Index sliced through the critical -300 level last Wednesday indicating that further damage was imminent. We are in the middle of that right now. When the summation index turns up, we will have an all clear signal. This will lag the actual bottom. Based on the last similar collapse in December, we have a couple of weeks to go in the capitulation. I have an excessive volume indicator that works well to pinpoint tops and bottoms. It has not done anything yet. Capitulation appears to be ahead of us.

The New Lows are now in the 29 to 38 issues per day range. The safe zone and a sign of market health is when this is 5 issues or less per day.

I keep a ratio of the daily price of gold versus the Worden Brothers "WG580" Gold Index. I have this going back to Septemer 1992. Using simple statistics, I calculated when the ratio is 2 standard deviations from normal and define this as Overbought/Oversold. Once it gives an oversold condition, I look for a peak in the ratio that holds for 10 trading days. This gave buy signals Nov 24 92/ Dec 4 97/Jan 12 98. We are now in an oversold condition again, and I will look for a peak in the ratio as a buy signal. This could take a few days or a few weeks. This is something that works well for those with time horizon of a year or so.

In 1985/1986 the South Africans made a major double bottom about 9 months apart and then exploded into 1987. It doesn't look too much different today. Check out the MONTHLY charts under the "interactive charts" section at . Use Bollinger Bands and the "All Data" features for DRFNY,FSCNY,GLDFY etc.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 09:59 - ID#225273)
The Bottom
Yesterday I wrote that we were close to an entropy ( exhaustive ) bottom in gold and I expected a reversal either yesterday or today. Now that gold and silver have taken out yesterday's highs, I believe an entropy bottom is behind us. The forces that have pushed gold down are spent.
We should now see a successful challenge of the $300 level in gold and silver should rally to at least its 200-day MA around the $5.70 level.

The bears, as chas pointed out, have been caught in a trap.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:01 - ID#183109)
RANGY scores on the diamond front. A Dollar an ounce soon?
Great news on the RANGY front. After months of fighting, the Marsfontein M1 diamond pipe dispute is settled, with all parties agreeing.

De Beers gets 60% of M1, and SouthernEra 20%, with the other 20% going to SouthernEra's partner, Randgold & Exploration Co. 

SouthernEra has agreed to buyout RANGYs share of this action, and although the exact figures arent out yet to my knowledge, I think its safe to say it will be in the neighborhood of $US 10 MILLION--or maybe a bit more.. We can now equate that to at least 25 cents a share cash inbound to Randgold. Thus the entire remaining RANGY portfolio is on sale for 50 CENTS a share.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:02 - ID#434108)
N. Korea admits overseas missile sales

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:06 - ID#258427)
Post your trades!!?
back in drooy at 2 5/16 this morning...we'll see.....
(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:08 - ID#434108)
Russia will sell nuclear reactors to India/not open for discussion (via USA-Today
Russia to sell nuclear reactors to

NEW DELHI, India - Russia is going ahead with plans to sell
atomic reactors to India despite that country's nuclear weapons
tests last month and subsequent condemnation by other nuclear
powers, according to the Press Trust of India news agency. Last
year, Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Robin Raphel told
Congress that Russian exports of nuclear reactors or
missile-related technology to India would be cause for concern.
But the Russian government responded that its negotiation with
India over the two, $1 billion reactors was not open to
discussion with a third country.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:09 - ID#290172)
Donald--"I think they will, and should, fail."
Absolutely! That tactic is--in the concrete sense--no longer
available, for a number of reasons {:- ) . The games ( in fairness,
one should no doubt say 'strategies' ) involving the SDR, SDR interest
rates, on ad infinitum, have allowed that game more innings that
one could have imagined possible.

Troubling is the call of 'in what currency will cash be king?'
Taint the dollar. The winding path always leads one back to

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:09 - ID#307271)
Hope everybody reads the article on Rangy and DeBeers soz I can unload this bowwow. All my charts are up this A.M. but good ol' Rangy?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:17 - ID#427357)
The Social Credit Scam

The interest being paid on the national debt is about a billion dollars per working day.

 the fact remains that the government prints what people accept as "money," but does not spend it to pay its bills. According to some, that should stop!

Abraham Lincoln evidently agreed: he declined to pay the bankers' interest on funds he could create on his own, and printed his famous Greenbacks. He was shot in the head. So, for that matter, was President Kennedy, whose assassination apparently brought to a halt the program, then underway, to reissue United States notes. Bloodshed notwithstanding, wouldn't it be fiscally sound for the U.S. to finance itself directly from the printing press, instead of indirectly, by borrowing? It's called the "social credit" scheme.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:19 - ID#200235)
News Flash
Head of PPT , Allan Greenspan on CNBC talking up DOW at this time.Look Bob, see the dow run, look jane........

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:40 - ID#231337)
A lighter moment from the the silicon trenches.....
News Release

For Immediate Distribution

REDMOND ( BNN ) --World leaders reacted with stunned silence as Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT ) conducted an underground nuclear test at a secret facility in eastern Washington state. The device, exploded at 9:22 am PDT ( 1622 GMT/12:22 pm EDT ) today, was timed to coincide with talks between Microsoft and the US Department of Justice over possible antitrust action.

"Microsoft is going to defend its right to market its products by any and all necessary means," said Microsoft CEO Bill Gates. "Not that I'm anti-government" he continued, "but there would be few tears shed in the computer industry if Washington were engulfed in a bath of nuclear fire."

Scientists pegged the explosion at around 100 kilotons. "I nearly dropped my latte when I saw the seismometer" explained University of Washington geophysicist Dr. Whoops Blammover, "At first I thought it was Mt. Rainier, and I was thinking, damn, there goes the mountain bike vacation."

In Washington, President Clinton announced the US Government would boycott all Microsoft products indefinitely. Minutes later, the President reversed his decision. "We've tried sanctions since lunchtime, and they don't work," said the President. Instead, the administration will initiate a policy of "constructive engagement" with Microsoft.

Microsoft's Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myrhvold said the test justified Microsoft's recent acquisition of the Hanford Nuclear Reservation from the US Government. Not only did Microsoft acquire "kilograms of weapons grade plutonium" in the deal, said Myrhvold, "but we've finally found a place to dump those millions of unsold copies of Microsoft." Myrhvold warned users not to replace Microsoft NT products with rival operating systems. "I can neither confirm nor deny the existence of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator inside of every Pentium II microprocessor," said Myrhvold, "but anyone who installs an OS written by a bunch of long-hairs on the Internet is going to get what they deserve."

The existence of an RTG in each Pentium II microprocessor would explain why the microprocessors, made by the Intel Corporation, run so hot. The Intel chips "put out more heat than they draw in electrical power" said Prof. E. Thymes of MIT. "This should finally dispell those stories about cold fusion."

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:41 - ID#57232)
Kitco running smoothly again
All: Those of you who consistently post without rancor are an asset to this site. I find it reassuring that Kitco can settle down again after the last few days.

I think we should all commend those of us who keep up the steady stream of information - sharefin, Mike Stewart, APH, Cyclist, Donald, SDRer, chas, and many others. I apologize in advance for missing others I should post in this list -- had a long night at the lake last night.

There are only a few who interrupt the steady stream of knowledge that make this site as precious as it is.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:41 - ID#284255)

This site offers a great overview of the US markets.
Many different perspectives plus more.
U.S. Government Rates - has oil and gold

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:48 - ID#401460)

Very important, evidently, Russia is still not teamed up with China. China has been helping Pakistan, Indias enemy.

Most likely has Washington's blessing.

This all relates to the Mid East Arab Iranian situation also...the Caspian Sea Oil plays into this also.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:50 - ID#266105)
@no comment

A postman whose van has been repeatedly
attacked by a large, wild turkey in a rural
part of Albany, the New York state capital,
has been instructed by the US Postal
Service not to deliver mail when he sees the
bird in future. An ornithologist believes the
eagle emblem on the vans side could be
enraging the turkey.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:56 - ID#410114)
Glenn vs the Neural net
So far, Winton's neural net is winning. Go neural net!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 10:57 - ID#284255)
OZ Power

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:15 - ID#401460)
They are printing again!

The FED added liquidity, it has been some time since they have done this - I think.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:18 - ID#434108)
HighRise/ & Honor among thieves
Hi HighRise,
I think the U.S. may be almost as suspect as China, & Russia,
in helping Pakistan, & India, with nuclear technology.

I am not 'un-patriotic'...but governments are not nations; and I am almost absolutely convinced that the U.S. government's policies,
international-nuclear/proliferation-nonproliferation, etc.,
are just so much:

offering them help with one hand, and
slapping them down with the other.

There is no honor, among thieves, ultimately.

But I agree, that the Russia-India nuke technology connection,
and the China-Pakistan nuke connection ...pose
interesting scenarios.

Nations' desires for 'independence', and 'respect' in the world
are powerful - and potentially treacherous -
forces, on this planet.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:48 - ID#343259)
@PMF Re: Y2k as *the* trigger event.
I quite agree that Y2k may not be *the* event, but one in a string of events. Before joining this forum, I had no idea of the quantity or frequency of events that appear to be arraying themselves ( the other possible "trigger events" you cite ) . My knowledge is very limited, but my reasoning told me that Y2k is a sufficient event *on its own* for me to personally go to gold.

After reading here, and seeing the degree that gold is manipulated, I first was concerned that I had jumped into something I had no knowledge of, and was going to pay the price. But in further reading, I am strengthened in the belief that it is only the paper gold which is manipulated, and that should a severe breakdown occur, that physical gold should do less poorly than other "stores of value".

Although I have spent many hours ( and years ) with traders ( to write programs for them ) , and understand traders probably better than the average man-on-the-street, I know that I know next to nothing about *how* to trade. I am fascinated by the depth here, and I learn a lot, but since I have personally seen seasoned traders like RJ in action, and seen what they do, and how they do it, I am very, very aware that I have no business trading. My posture is merely personal, Y2k is a sufficient likely event for me, and it is *that* perspective that I wish to share here, to add my "stick to the fire".

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:50 - ID#290172)
European Interface

Having spent days past with Europeans, making a disciplined effort to listen rather than speak [sacrifice!] some observations:

( 1 ) While there is no overwhelming enthusiasm for the advent of the Euro, there is a bedrock consensus that it is necessary-"The dollar needs the competition." "The Euro will redress an imbalance." That the dollar remarks were so gently expressed, one ascribes to the graciousness
of the speakers.

( 2 ) Interestingly enough, there was general pleasure [albeit surprised pleasure] over the 'extended period of peace' that Europe has enjoyed in the last decades. One admits, with a degree of chagrin that this thread of discourse amazed--this is no doubt attributable to geographical provincialism. [griny thingy]

( 3 ) Applying these comments to the other areas of the world which this forum is attempting to understand and analyze, one feels it is sensible to suggest that the journey from Hastings to Agincourt to Dunkirk to Brussels is more fraught with difficulties than the journey from Nanking to Edo.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:54 - ID#342315)
Anybody: re Ed Whiteacre and SBC
Some family has Ameritech and they got a notice of Ed trying to acquire Ameritech. What's the best anybody knows about Whiteacre? Many thanx, Charlie

Strad Master
(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:57 - ID#250297)
Good wishes and prayers.
GOLLUM: Many good wishes are flowing from all your friends at Kitco to you and your wife - mine included. May she have a speedy recovery and a return to full and complete health very soon! As well, may your loving support for her during this time of trouble serve to bring you both closer together. Please keep us informed as to her progress.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 11:59 - ID#342315)
SDRer re European opinion
In other words, there is a certain amount of Bullsh!t involved for Euro by Europeans.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:02 - ID#368244)
Dow down


(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:03 - ID#252150)
The Great Society@President Clinton signed a bill today that allocates $25mil for bullet proof vests
I wonder if they come in kid's sizes. Now, there's a growth industry.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:05 - ID#317193)
Gollum...and another prayer for you and your wife

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:06 - ID#350179)
Breaking news (to the mushrooms)
Asia on brink of depression

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:09 - ID#373403)
Gold Investors: Anti-social, money laundering, drug dealing...
hoarders or true capitalist insulating themselves from the excesses of centralized government the same as free speech and the bearing arms!

We have the right to speak against a tyranic government, bear arms against repressive government, be represented with taxation, BUT NOT THE RIGHT TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM MONETARY MISMANAGEMENT?

And the Federal Reserve as a quasi-governmental entity with Treasury Department backing to dissallow the use of precious metals for commerce.

I think the ACLU should like to protect the rights of citizens to own and use gold in commerce.

Gold and silver are the true money of the U.S. Constitution. We are PATRIOTS!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:12 - ID#343259)
@Anyone? url for Dow Intraday chart -
Anyone have a url for Dow Intraday chart. TIA

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:13 - ID#252150)
ABX@In court in Texas asking that the class action suit against them for not making results public
be dismissed. I wonder how many millions they made shorting Bre-X. I never trusted that weasel Monk & think he's a devious as*hole, which makes him a good business man, as long as he can operate on the periphery

of the law, not to mention ethics & honesty. I only own the stock because it's the biggest & can survive an extended dowturn in POG.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:14 - ID#252150)
not Monk

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:21 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
CompGeek: Here's one that updates every few minutes

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:22 - ID#427357)
CompGeek @Anyone? url for Dow Intraday chart -


Virtual-LIVE real-time charts of hard assets vs paper assets:

Gold, Silver & Platinum futures, XAU, HUI, Johannesburg All-Gold, S&P Gold Precious Metals, Toronto Gold & Silver, Australian Gold INDICES & Crude Oil - versus DOW, T-Bonds, NASDAQ, S&P500 Indices. -

- it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:25 - ID#284255)
Why gold will fly 2000++++
Contributed by: Julius Marinaro

16 March 1998



The biggest problem I have had in planning for the Year 2000 Millennium Bug Disaster is the lack of a Big Picture of exactly what will happen and when it will happen. In fact, nobody knows this, because there are many variables and unknowns.

For example, when the Big Day ( January 1, 2000 ) arrives, we expect a lot of computer systems to fail, but the picture is not that simple. The actual failure date will depend on the specific type of technology and its operation schedule. Computer programs which run on mainframes come in different date flavors. There are Year-end programs and Month-end programs and Quarterly programs and Daily programs. So each such program might not fail until it is actually operated. In other words, the Bomb will not go off entirely at one single time. There have already been many sporadic system failures due to the Y2K problem, and I expect there will be sporadic and unpredictable failures in 1999 and 2000. Even if a massive amount of systems fail on the Big Day, that will not be the only day on which Y2K failures occur.

But who is going to risk operating computer based technology during this time period if they know the dangers? By the time the Big Day rolls around, the people in charge will know that they face massive liability lawsuits if they operate flawed systems. It would be cheaper for them to declare bankruptcy, or suspend operations for awhile. So for mainframe programs ( which large corporations and large government agencies use heavily ) , we might reasonably expect only remediated programs to be run, or possibly reversion to fall back systems, or possibly suspension of computer operations until repairs are completed. In other words, only the most critical programs might be operating, if at all, seriously limiting the business of large corporations and agencies.

Even with these unknowns, it seemed a good idea to piece together my version of the Big Picture, in order to make my plans. What follows is my best guess at what might happen, it is just one alternative future, and the future is not cast in concrete.


Following is a list of known Thresholds of Failure and other significant dates for the next few years. ( A Threshold of Failure is a known date of Y2K failure for a specific technology, unless it is remediated. ) These dates were obtained from Internet documents and other Y2K sources.

January 1, 1999 - There are many computer based systems which project forward one calendar year in order to do their work for the current calendar year. In addition, the Electric Power Research Institute has stated that it has identified some electric industry systems which will fail on this date, unless remediated.

Anytime, 1999 - Potential for computer system failures. Some older mainframe computer programs use the two-digit year '99 to mark the end-of-file ( end of the input data stream for processing ) . When this year appears in legitimate transactions for processing, these programs might stop processing at the start of the data stream and be unable to process transactions, unless remediated.

April 1, 1999 - This is not an April Fool's joke. The fiscal year for Canada and New York State both start on April 1. If their fiscal management software is not remediated by this date, their ability to function might be diminished. It might happen at a later date, depending on when the software is operated. Considering both Canada and New York have large welfare systems, this problem could give us a preview of what will happen to other welfare systems when their new fiscal year starts.

July 1, 1999 - The fiscal year for many other American states start on July 1, including Colorado. If their fiscal management software is not remediated by this date, their ability to function might be diminished. How would welfare recipients react if aid were cut off?

August 22, 1999 - The Global Positioning System ( GPS ) resets itself. Any GPS device may give incorrect date and position unless repaired or replaced. Some banks use GPS receivers to mark the time on big ( Billion Dollars ) loans in order to compute interest correctly.

September 9, 1999 - Potential for computer system failures. Some older mainframe computer programs use the specific date of 9/9/99 to mark the end-of-file ( end of the input data stream for processing ) . When this date appears in legitimate transactions for processing, these program might stop processing part way in the data stream and be unable to process remaining transactions.

In addition, this same date is used in some older computer programs as a special code to end retention of archived data ( historical data, such as your financial records, which was to be kept forever ) . If these programs are run on or after this date, the archived data will be deleted, so some computerized records about you may disappear prematurely.

October 1, 1999 - The U.S. federal fiscal year start on October 1. If the federal fiscal management software is not remediated by this date, their ability to operate might stop. What would happen to our welfare system and how would welfare recipients react?

Second Half, 1999 - Potential for societal disruptions and breakdowns due to panic. I presume the mass of Americans have their heads stuffed in the sand on the Y2K problem. What I predict will happen is based on the notion of spaced repetition.' If you hear a statement only once, you might not believe it. But if you hear it repeated six or seven times spaced out over a long time span, it will finally sink in. What I suggest will happen is that if we have a series of well publicized system crashes every month or so starting this year, the general public will finally wake up and then panic. At such a time, I would expect runs on food stores and banks, possibly leading to shortages of basic commodities ( including paper money ) which would lead to rationing.

In my humble opinion, the most likely time for public panic would be the October/November time frame. I expect a national state of emergency to be declared, and possibly martial law in urban areas.

December 31, 1999 - The FAA was informed by IBM that 40 of its computers used to display air traffic control data on computer screens will cease functioning on January 1, 2000. Reports have appeared that perhaps twenty-five to fifty per cent of flights will be grounded.

The U.S. Army is scheduled to finish remediation of its logistic computers on this date. If they fail, the results are world shaking. You see, military logistics are the muscles behind a war machine. If there is no food, no guns and no ammunition for the military, there is no army. If there is no U.S. Army, there is no U.S. foreign policy and no troops to enforce martial law at home.

January 1, 2000 - The Big Day. Embedded computer systems ( microchips implanted in devices ) , would fail on a schedule determined by the specific application. Certainly some will fail today, but others may not fail for days, weeks or months based on their maintenance schedule and other factors. Emergency damage control should start on or about this date, if not sooner due to societal disruptions. This seems a likely date for electric power utilities to fail if they haven't already reduced operations or unplugged non-critical customers.

In my humble opinion, the entire month of January will have Y2K related failures, not just the first few days or the first week, and possibly martial law in urban areas.

February 1, 2000 - According to Mr. Capers Jones of Software Productivity Research, lawyers will start damage assessment and litigation filing for the massive amount of damages which occur due to Y2K. He states this will continue through July of 2000.

In my view, February will start a period of alternating after shocks and calms through the first half of 2000. Each episode of after shock or calm could last up to a month.

February 29, 2000 - Leap Year. In addition to the Y2K failure, many computers may not be able to handle the leap year, if they are used on this date.

Spring, 2000 - Growing season starts. If lots of farmers are bankrupt by this time, and their seed suppliers are out of business, and the transportation network is diminished, and the food distribution system is inoperative, we face a serious food shortage for 2000 into 2001.

May 5, 2000 - Planetary Alignment Day. According to astronomers, the Earth will line up opposite the Sun from the other planets on this day, more or less in a line. The concern is that the total gravitational forces of the other planets may cause crustal changes ( earthquakes ) in the Earth. Not a good thing if our disaster relief agencies are overloaded from Y2K.

August 1, 2000 - According to Mr. Capers Jones of Software Productivity Research, businesses will start recovery from Y2K damage and replacement of defective computers, programs, systems, etc. He states this will continue through December of 2000. I interpret his statement to be an implication that large portions of American business will be out of commission for most of the year 2000.

But what happens after August 1, 2000? To answer that, I decided to move back from the trees until I could see the forest, as described in the next section.


Out of curiosity, I wondered if there were any prior incidents of a massive disaster. If so, then the history surrounding them might give us clues as to what to expect from the Y2K bomb. Alright, I have heard many people say this type of disaster has never happened before, which is true, but what about other types of disasters which had similar characteristics?

My criteria were these: Has America had any previous disasters which were nation-wide in scope and of significant duration? Why these criteria? Since we live in America, we need to know how America will respond to such a disaster. Obviously, only nation-wide disasters would be of interest, because the Y2K bomb is expected to be felt throughout the nation. As for the significant duration criterion, if our society is disrupted for only a day or a week, Y2K is a dud. It is only of significance if it lasts long enough to do major damage to our society. The exact duration of Y2K induced disruptions is unknown, but I do not believe it will be short.

I found three prior disasters in our history which met my criteria: the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression. Please read the following analysis objectively; if it is true, the survival problem is worse than you think.

The Revolutionary War was a nation-wide disaster because the fighting and British occupations occurred in most of the new nation ( thirteen colonies ) . The war lasted from 1776 to 1781. The Paris Treaty was signed in 1783. During the middle 1780's, a depression occurred in the new nation because they lost their major trade with England. The difficulties lead to Shay's Rebellion in 1787, and finally the adoption of the Constitution in 1789.

The Civil War was a nation-wide disaster for the Confederate States of America in which most of the fighting occurred. The war lasted from 1861 to 1865, followed by a protracted period of bitter Reconstruction in the South, including occupations by U.S. troops. Depending on what you call Reconstruction, this period lasted roughly from 1867 to 1876. The economy in the South was trashed for many years after the War. Crops were not grown on most farms and plantations because the men had been at war. Consequently, many people starved in the year following the end of the War.

The Great Depression was not only a nation-wide disaster but a global disaster. It was triggered by the market crash in 1929 but took years for the economy to reach bottom in 1933. After FDR started the New Deal, the economy turned around although there was an economic downturn in 1937-1938. A national State of Emergency was declared early in the 1930's. The Great Depression ended in 1940, due to increased military spending for World War II.

In my opinion, these are the disasters which are closest to Y2K in scope and duration. By looking for commonalties among them, we should be able to get a better picture of what to expect:

Two Phases - First there is a disaster phase in which devastation and disruptions occur, then there is a recovery phase in which damage is repaired or replaced. In the above examples, the recovery phase is about twice as long as the disaster phase. This is life-and-death, because we not only have to prepare for the Y2K disaster itself, but also prepare for the recovery from it. That may be much longer than we think.

My calculations for the timing of each phase are:
a ) The Y2K Disaster phase should start in earnest about October/November 1999 due to public panic. The crescendo should be the whole month of January 2000, followed by a period of after shocks and calms lasting through July, 2000. That's eight to ten months of critical conditions.
b ) Assuming the two-to-one ratio mentioned above, the Y2K Recovery phase should last about sixteen to twenty months, ending sometime between November 2001 and March 2002.

Economic Downturn - During the recovery phase in the above examples, there were depressions and other economic malaise. Jobs may be scarce along with basic commodities and utilities. Prepare for this prospect.

Transformation - The geographic areas affected by the disaster phases underwent significant societal changes during the recovery phases. Our survival in the future will require adaptability to disorienting changes which may be difficult to predict. Even if I could identify existing trends in society today and extrapolate them into the future, I cannot be sure of the impact of Y2K on them. Do not get stuck in the past, and do not assume there will be a return to normal after the Y2K damage has been repaired. I plan on reinvention of myself.

Government Growth - During the recovery phase in the above examples, the federal government grew in size and power. An Executive Branch was created after the Revolutionary War by an America which had just repudiated strong central governments in 1776. The loss of the Civil War by the Confederacy was a serious blow to States Rights, and said in effect that a state cannot just up and leave the Union. A huge Welfare state was created by FDR with immense growth in the size of the federal government. I expect that there will be tremendous pressure on the federal government to do something, but what?

History Repeats Itself - In this broad brush approach, we see a recurring time-based pattern of nation building. Each of the three disasters above are instances of America changing and growing due to extreme stress.

Nations change in one of two ways: by evolution, with lots of little changes spread out over time to diminish the societal disruption of each change; or by revolution, with one huge change in a short time span, which upsets society greatly. Governments are most easy to change when under great stress. Therein lies the real story of the Y2K bomb, I suspect. In my opinion, the Y2K failures will be but triggers which will cause another instance of nation building in America, because our federal government has not changed itself enough to deal effectively with current realities.

To see that the Y2K disaster fits into the repeating pattern, just calculate the time intervals between the examples above:
1776 to 1861 = 85 years
1861 to 1929 = 68 years
1929 to 2000 = 71 years
So the Y2K timing is about when we would expect another episode of stressful nation building.


The above scenario describes about two years of societal disruption and distress as a result of the Y2K bomb. But the future is not cast in concrete. It changes every second that we make a decision or take an action.

Julius Marinaro

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:25 - ID#350179)
Another set of DOW charts

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:27 - ID#412350)
Good gold call in the midst of the overwhelming bearish gold sentiment at Kitco!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:31 - ID#284255)
Dow - tick by tick

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:32 - ID#286279)
Our thoughts are with you and your wife.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:43 - ID#36156)
Gollum - For her.

Almighty God,

you know her inmost being,

the secrets of her body and soul.

Fill her heart with trust,

even as she fears,

and bless the surgeons and nurses

and all who work to help her

with gifts of healing and care.

Be near,

gently sustaining her,

and supporting them in their skills.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:45 - ID#194311)
ding, dong, dell ...death to yankee dollar begins.
US dollars to be outlawed in Vietnam: report

HUE, Vietnam, June 15 ( AFP ) - Vietnam's government plans to ban
the use of US dollars in a bid to boost the stability of the dong, a
local report said Monday.
Deputy governor of the central State Bank of Vietnam Do Que
Luong told the Vietnam Investment Review that restaurants, shops and
hotels will strive to establish the dong as the only legal
"The regulation has not come out yet, but its main content
should pave the way for the dong to become Vietnam's only legal
currency," he was quoted as saying.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:47 - ID#36156)
Gollum - For you.
Grant me a quiet night, O Lord,

and give me rest,

for I am tired and need sleep.

Watch over me with love

in the silence of night

and let me rest in you

like a child in its mother's arms.

I place my trust in you,

my God.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:47 - ID#20748)
Try this.$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:50 - ID#187109)
*Big Non Event*
No offense Sharefin... ( youse are startin to get a leeeeetle crazy here )

This big y2k thing is WAY overblown ( fire AWAY all y2k soothsayers ) . Planetary alignment earthquakes, bankrupt farmers with no seed, etc. is crazy talk. This is millennium-madness at it's finest. I am not buying a generator, not hoarding food, not pulling my retirement monies out, not selling my house, not buying gold and silver like it is going to be the ONLY way to barter ( precious metal will mean nothing ) , not moving to a remote area of Montana, not...............etc, etc, etc ( I do have an earthquake kit though....I live in Cal ) ;- ) . And I will not respond to any comments regarding this post.

( back to lurk )

btw, Earl.....I bought MORE sugar ( Oct ) TODAY and MORE plat yesterday.......and I will buy MORE sugar if it goes down.......I don't care, I'm buying MORE......



(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:53 - ID#194311)
politicians, ceo's waking up to reality.
"Real" chance of US power shortages from 2000 problem: senator

WASHINGTON, June 12 ( AFP ) - There are "real prospects" of power
shortages in the United States as a result of computer problems from
the year 2000 bug, a key US senator said Friday.
"I am genuinely concerned about the very real prospects of power
shortages as a consequence of the millenial date change," said
Republican Senator Bob Bennett, chairman of a special senate
committee on the 2000 problem.
Bennett said he had "disturbing news to report" after his
committee conducted a survey of preparations for the bug by 10 top
US oil and gas firms.
He said only 20 percent of the companies had completed an
assessment of their automated systems, which carry out critical
functions in power plants.
"One firm did not even know how many lines of computer code it
had," Bennett said.
"Experts have testified that a major firm that has not already
completed its assessment cannot hope to become Year 2000 compliant
by January 1 2000," he added.
None of the firms had even completed contingency plans, Bennett
Officials in the administration of President Bill Clinton were
less alarmist.
"People can dream up doomsday scenarious of what might happen if
the industry is not ready," said Elizabeth Moler, deputy secretary
of energy.
"We need the facts, not doomsday scenarios."
The president of the North American Electric Reliability
Council, Michehl Gent, which coordinates North American electrical
systems owned by various private utilities, said a lot of progress
had been made.
But even he said there were concerns that the work was not being
done in a coordinate manner.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 12:57 - ID#187109)
black market dollar
kiwi ( we meet again ) . And what will the Vietnam gov't do about the HUGE black market USD trade? You think the fine citizens will just stop using the USD because their gov't said to? Think again kind NZer.......

away.....uh huh.


I wonder if they are hoarding gold for the y2k bomb.........

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:00 - ID#347447)
Henry D
Well said, to both! Amen.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:00 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
CompGeek: Here's a high-resolution intraday DOW chart:

You can also get intraday charts for some other indices and commodities ( I'm particularly fascinated with the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals index ) by going here: . Just click on the symbol and then, when you are taken to the next page, change the "retrieve mode" and hit "submit" ( for all you guys who aren't computer geeks ) .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:12 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
EB: Hope you ain't bein' myopic, dude. :- )

The worst case scenario I've seen has many nuclear power plants failing and melting down, peppering the earth's surface with dozens of Chernobyls -- but that'll be nothing compared to the leeeeettle Y2K glitch that causes the Pentagon to launch its ICBMs . . .

Stupid? Probably.

But I'll be holding my breath, anyway.

. . . AWAY . . . To practice my hunter-gatherer skills . . .

Just kidding. Relax everyone. Don't worry. Be happy.

. . . AWAY . . . To stick my head in the sand . . . hmmmmmmmm . . . decisions . . . decisions . . .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:14 - ID#26467)
FYI Our basic and most important commodity is clean water.
We are mostly taking the supply for granted as I noticed it
hasn't been mentioned here.
If we are talking about a societal breakdown than electrical
energy is served better with the use of diesel generators
not gas.They are more efficient,cheaper to run,last longer,
and they don't catch fire.One of my businesses is run on that
type of powersource exclusively.Be prepared.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:17 - ID#340302)
@WOMBAT Re: your 03:50...AUSSIE GOLD SALES...
Although your analysis of the effects of Aussie gold sales is well-presented, I would humbly suggest that you err in one significant respect.

Most notably, your central thesis is that, since gold dropped 18% since June '97 ( and the Aussie dollar has dropped 22% ) , therefore there was a certain compelling logic to Australia selling its gold reserves, i.e., you feel that gold has effectively performed no better than the Aussie dollar.

What you fail to note is that if Australia had NOT sold its gold reserves, in all likelihood gold would NOT be down 18% today. In other
words, the very sale of Australia's gold reserves succeeded in creating a gold market panic that I would estimate resulted in at least 9% of the drop in gold's value.

The simple reality is that Australia is now in a major pickle because its major asset today is the good faith of the Australian government.

Just how good is that?



(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:18 - ID#194311)
still buying plat?

I'm waiting for $300 squares...oucchhhh!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:23 - ID#246224)
@My2Worth (Alt 155=)re:Y2K, EB
What do you base your opinion on??? Assertions like "It will not be as bad as all that" BEG the presentation of ones premises, evidence and rational. So illuminate us with your the above. We await!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:30 - ID#376309)
GO GOLD!! I need to sell some more.
Aug Gold closed at 287.3 and the XAU at 68.23 on Friday June 12th, If Aug gold closes above $287.3 but the XAU fails to close above 68.23 then we will have a short term divergence. Stocks usually lead gold and in this case the lead is DOWN!

The low today so far in Aug gold is $288.0 and the high so far in the XAU is 68.26. It's NOT looking good so far.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:30 - ID#376309)
GO GOLD!! I need to sell some more.
Aug Gold closed at 287.3 and the XAU at 68.23 on Friday June 12th, If Aug gold closes above $287.3 but the XAU fails to close above 68.23 then we will have a short term divergence. Stocks usually lead gold and in this case teh lead is DOWN!

The low today so far in Aug gold is $288.0 and the high so far in the XAU is 68.26. It's NOT looking good so far.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:31 - ID#376309)
sorry about the double entry. I wasn't tring to rub it in. I tried to catch a spelling error but obviously not in time.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:31 - ID#194311)
Plunge team trying valiantly...
PREM at 1200 but still she drops...ohhhhsh$st

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:34 - ID#254269)
Just heard on car radio that RR will be holding a Press Conference this afternoon
with Dick Gephardt. Supposed to be concerning the tax code, from what I understand.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:35 - ID#347235)
@ Gollum
Have no fear G-d is watching over your wife. Best to you SHALOM

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:40 - ID#194311)
ROBERT RUBIN ...a name etched now in history
this was the trigger, a slip of the tongue, the yen drops violently, the markets get spooked, try to take it back but toooo late.

This is sort of how I imagined it, the prick that burst the bubble would be a slip up...thye have walking the fine line for so long that sooner or later something would give...and now it has.....crash, thump, bang...good ridance to misplaced confidence games...hmmm I wonder he'll get his shares out of Goldman and into gold before their market price is worthless.
It would give no greater joy than to see this clique of con-artists, money-changing swine to get burnt in a big-meltdown they were instrumental theirs some boys none too happy with Bobby boy for this screw up....just not longer enough for the Jews boy club to get out of town with the gold.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:41 - ID#254269)
Emergency Meetings re Japan;

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:48 - ID#194311)
EB market gold
is more of their style I believe....happen to know a few Vietnamese and the one the thing the all agree that paper cannot be trusted just as "communists"...they all keep gold under their mattresses, not dollars.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:51 - ID#254269)
Abby Cohen's still bullish on the stock market ;

but then, would she ever say anything else

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:52 - ID#43460)
thanks for the tip. Still haven't gotten up the nerve to try it, as I can make 40+ silver castings for the price of one gold one.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:52 - ID#377196)
Sharefin - Planetary alignments and Y2K
Sharefin - Interesting post re Y2K. However, has anyone got anything to say with "Just the Facts"? No wild speculations, predictions, etc. For example - nothing is going to happen as a result of the May 5, 2000 Planetary Alignment day. See for a good explanation of the effects of the planets' gravitational forces on Earth.

About GPS systems - are you saying that a GPS receiver may not work because of the satellite broadcasting system AND because of the software/hardware in the receiver itself? Does anyone know of a Y2K compliant GPS receiver system?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:53 - ID#187109)
Why should we Kay? And don't call me Kay
kiwi....jump in now, the waters are fine..... ( ? ) what is a 300 squares? Call me stoooopid yank... ( wink & smile ) ....I will buy more at 300squares too ( if you splain it to me ) ......ohmy ( ! )

Big Al ( US ) - time will 2 is mine only.......and I ain't explainin' nuthin! ( more smiles ) ...

Roninthesack - Myopia is my specialty... ( or quickly correcting it is ) ;- ) Trouble or not I will be fine. I am a survivor. I have suffered greater tragedies than what I see...... uh huh. or........maybe I'll go into the backyard to dig myself a leeeeetle shelter.....with plenty of salami, beer, and goldfish crackers......mmmmmmmmm. ICyourBM's??? That would hurt.......yup.


Y2 ( ? )

go plat....go silver.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 13:53 - ID#340302)
@KIWI...I am going to take STRONG exception... your description of Robert Rubin and the "jews boy club" in your previous post.

I am NOT in love with Rubin. I believe he is completely irresponsible and is acting with an apparent conflict of interest.

Neither am I in love with Greenspan. I believe that he is, at best, operating in a fantasyland of worst, he simply is following passively a Democrat Party agenda without sufficiently strong protests against where that agenda is leading the country.

Yes, they happen to be Jews... so big deal!

It just happens that a gentile ( by the name of Clinton ) appointed them to their positions.

Maybe that means there is a Christian conspiracy to use Jews to undermine the financial health of America? I DON'T THINK SO!

So take your "jew boys club" and go stick it!



(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:02 - ID#254269)
World Bank says Japan's Recovery is key to Asia ;

no kiddin' guys !

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:03 - ID#194311)
F* ...i make no apologies....
if I call a fork a fork....this crew of predominantly white, male, jews have had a huge influence over world financial markets far in excess of their public mandate. This is the kind of corrupt usury the world can do without.
I don't believe I'm racist but the one thing worse than racism is an elite clique hiding behind a politically correct paranoia...I say the same thing about the catholic boys club of Kennedy, Italian mafia....

let's sort the facts from the hysteria here.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:04 - ID#369138)

We have been through this anti-smitic crap before, you are only the latest in a bunch of ignorant bigots to take this tactic. Just where do you live? Maybe some of us will pay you a visit and educate your sorry @ss

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:05 - ID#369138)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:06 - ID#369138)
Sorry I forgot SHALOM to you.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:11 - ID#287186)
Retired Soldier - I'll give you a case of ammo
I and some 7.62x39 agree with you whole heartedly.
I hale from the anti-socialist, right wing patriotic {not "patriot"} camp. I have concerns about NWO, Klinton, SS {social service}, etc.
BUT this crap from the right fringe gives us a bad name.
Time to clean out the attic before the bring the roof down on our heads.
Where do you want to meet?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:13 - ID#194311)
Retired Soldier....intimidation is really not appropriate here...
or is it. I speak my mind and get labelled anti-seminitic.
Any group of elite who control large amounts of wealth and power must be accountable for all their actions...collusion, corruption, market-manipulation...
So are you backing up all Goldman Sachs actions with your guns now?...boy who does this remind us of?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:13 - ID#340302)
@KIWI..."the Catholic boys club of Kennedy Italian Mafia?????????"
...are you out of your mind?

So you hate Jews, Catholics...and who else?

Certainly, there must be some other ethnic groups you have left out?

Enlighten us.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:16 - ID#242325)
Farfel: Many smart people ( OLDMAN ) think that Rubin gives Clinton orders, not visa versa. Clinton never would have received the Democratic presidential nomination without overwhelming support from Goldman Sachs partners early in his campaign.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:16 - ID#290172)
The Commission has installed a telex with an automatic answering device which gives the conversion rates in a number of currencies. This service is available every day from 3.30 p.m. until 1 p.m. the following day.

Users of the service should do as follows:
--call telex number Brussels 23789,
--give their own telex code,
--type the code "cccc' which puts the automatic system into operation resulting in the transmission of the conversion rates of the ecu,
--the transmission should not be interrupted until the end of the message, which is marked by the code "ffff'.

Note:--The Commission also has an automatic fax answering service ( No 2961097/2966011 ) providing daily data concerning calculation of the conversion rates applicable for the purposes of the common agricultural policy.
[ for you stalwart souls knee-deep in sugah {:- ) ) ]

Avalon; WB's 'penetrating analysis'--this from folk making six figures
On Which They Pay No Taxes in ANY country. Signed, Jealous {:- ) )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:17 - ID#350179)
Dodging the dinner rolls
For lurkers/newbies - if you've ever wondered "what the H*ll is the PPT?"
Plunge Protection Team

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:19 - ID#194311)
F*....wise up man.
special interests and power broking cliques of any demonination are the scourge of humanity, ethnicity in itself is beautiful but using your power to lord it over other races is detrimental to humanity as a whole.

Racism is the powerful force of the gene insisting on the propagation of the family,group...but the love and treating of all humans equally is a more powerful instinct humans have yet to discover...this is the one true force that binds us all and only when we can recognise this and banish all preferential treatment of our local groups will peace become reality....not in my lifetime I'm sure.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:20 - ID#254269)
Dodging the dinner rolls ? MM, These guys are throwing knives and forks
at each other ! What a dysfunctional family this can be sometimes. ( Silly big grin ) .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:20 - ID#369138)
Goldman Sachs has done nothing illegal, just following good business practice. The myth that an anproportionate percentage of wealth is controled by jews is negated by the amount or percentage of us that are
NOT wealthy, myself included although I have enough for my needs. But look in the ghettos that do still exist where many poor Jews are living. Then try to make the case for that story that is the root cause of many problems. Your referal to the Jew Boys club is what I and others will takes exception to. Shalom to you

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:22 - ID#340302)
@KIWI...actually, I will terminate summarily this conversation...
...and NEVER post any further comments to you.

Someday, I hope, you will apologize for your stereotypical comments..and claim that they were made simply as a stupid joke. Then, all can be forgiven.

You diminish the stature of goldbugs to the rest of the world by such comments. You do realize this, I hope?

Until then...

And now I'm out of here.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:22 - ID#229277)
Kiwi: Hang it up
Think before you speak.

I'm not ready to believe you're really as ignorant as your recent posts suggest.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:23 - ID#231337)
Japan .... propping up the YEN
Just heard on the CBC ( Canadian Broadcasting Corp ) that Gov of Japan has annuonced an economic stimulous package valued at over $4B US. Curriences have stabalized, and this would perhaps account for the POG jump today of $4.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:24 - ID#369138)
Thanks, but I don't need a gun for this schmuck

Crystal Ball
(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:27 - ID#340392)
I heard the news today, oh boy!
An ad on Bloomberg radio touting "brilliant uncirculated" American Eagle gold coins. Use 'em to plug up the holes in your portfolio. Har Har ;- )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:27 - ID#25171)
Who expects abby to say otherwise when she and her partners are going to float their stocks?
The plunge protection team is gearing up.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:30 - ID#287186)
RJ - re Wilmington Trust and perhaps "e-gold" in Wilmington DE
You stated on Sat Jun 06 1998 11:55 that "Republic Bank bought Wilmington. It is as simple as that. It happens all the time; one company buys another and consolidations occur."
I also know that former employees of such absorbed companies often strike out on their own in the same neighborhood doing the same sort of business. What was the timing of the buyout? E-gold may have been around since 1996-97. Maybe they picked up some employees.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:31 - ID#194311)
Squirrel....fringe right?
okay so if we're against labelling people where does this crap come from?
Time to bend you mind a little...think outside the box ( of ammo that is ) ...what ever happened to free speech?

Say something on the fringes...left,right, or unlabellable and soon enough I've got gun toting left-wingers ( ? ) visiting my doorstep...I think it's perhaps it's time you cleaned out your own attic and the basement for that matter and checked out what you really learnt at school? Go back to Homer's fables for some real allegorical truths.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:37 - ID#194311)
Retired soldier....shalom to you.
from the schmuck.....thank-you ... this is a good label, no?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:41 - ID#229277)
Everyone ready for the 2pm action on Wall Street?
What's it gonna be, program trading up or flushing PE losers from Mutual Funds? I say the latter, down 50 - 70 at the close.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:42 - ID#369138)
Schmuck can be good if it is a big one used properly

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:44 - ID#369138)
Also good in the German translation schmuck = Jewelry

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:45 - ID#340459)
Abby Cohen must be selling her own portfolio, but she would advise you to buy these bargains
That is how they operate, Remember Fidelity and Chip sector shenanigans.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:48 - ID#350179)
Warning: Not gold related
Darwin awards, urban myths etc.

Avalon - touch
EJ - I already have a US$5 bet that they pull it to a 20 - 30 point "gain" on the day.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:49 - ID#255226)
Silver, Gold, Xau
July Silver - If things go according to plan we should see a spike high in silver this week. Sell the contracts purchased under 5.10 at 5.80 or higher and reverse to the short side at the same time.

Aug. Gold - If you're short from 300 take the profit at 292 stop, try to reshort with a half position at 295 and the 2nd half at 300. Short term objective is still 280.

XAU - Sometime this summer the xau should test the lows and possibly drop into the high 50's. Gold should bottom shortly after that low.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:49 - ID#254269)
@ Midas. Re Abby Cohen, This is probably a really dumb question but do
these "Wall Street Pundits " ( like Abby and Joe whats his name ) have to disclose their stock tradings like Corporate Insiders do ? I have never thought about this before . If they don't, then they probably should be required to do so, because they have a bigger influence on the market than an individual company insider .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:50 - ID#229277)
Midas: I know fund managers that were out of the market months ago
why continuing to stuff blue chips in the funds. As a fund manager working for a big firm you just don't get points for bucking the crowd.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:52 - ID#194311)
All: Apologies..
for any sweeping generalisations that could be taken out of context to be construed as racialist such as to cause offence.

F* ...please do not post to me as you're parrot wind-bag faked eloquence is nauseating...verbosity is pretty but originality takes talent.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 14:54 - ID#24135)
Jews, bears, and thermodynamics
For Kiwi farfel Rt squirrel and the gas house gang..

I LOVE a good fight .. preferably one involving
racism religious intolerence sexism .. etc .. it adds
depth to the general level of fury .. personal insults
help a lot too .. smuck @sshole etc .. threats of
bodily harm add something too .. like watching TV.

I wish I could join in .. but I feel I cant really
add anything. I think Ill accuse my wife of being
part of a Jewish cabal plotting to take over the
financial world .. wish it were true .. but she cant
even balance a check book ..

for Polarbear ..
Rangold had theirs Marsfontein asset valued at zero
in the NAV Calculation .. this helps a bit.

For Glenn ..
Watching $xau for magic number of 68.23 to be missed.
Problem is I dont think much of divergence anyway.
I get a kick out of the "ENTROPY" bottom that
someone saw. Maybe it is .. However I think the gold
moves the last three days have mainly been DOLLAR
moves against currencies causing "THERMODYNAMIC"
ripples in the POG.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:00 - ID#369138)
Apology accepted war is over for now. Shalom in our time.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:00 - ID#410198)
John Disney...How goes things in the old country....getting some disturbing news...then again whats
new......time for ANOTHER recipe?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:00 - ID#14785)
SO it begins.....
Here we go!!!!

From the DBC?CBS NEWS page


John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:00 - ID#24135)
How do you contact the Jewish Boys Club??
I accept your apology on behalf of my wife ..
If there was such a conspiracy .. I wish she
could get in on it. Maybe I could make some
dough ..
Are ladies admitted ??

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:01 - ID#340459)
@kiwi, if you want to take on somebody without problems anywhere, take on muslims, in any way shape
or form. Try it now, anywhere.
They are open season for "free speech" from sea to sea across the globe, In the media or out of it, IMHO

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:03 - ID#242325)
The facts and nothing but the facts
All the key cabinet positions in this Administration -- Defense, State, and Treasury -- are held by Jews. You may like this or decry it, but it is a FACT. And investors must deal with the facts of a situation -- all the facts. Politically correct or incorrect is not relevant.

Pat Buchannan on the global economy:

Pat Buchanan's Twice-Weekly Column

If your local newspaper does not feature Pat Buchanan's column, you should ask why.

Vince Page | Linda Bowles | Walter Williams | Home

Ensnarement in the Global Economy ties America's hands

09 JUN 98 - The last six months have exposed the Global Economy as a vast poker game that can never end. When one player,
because of bad cards, bad luck or badly played hands, loses all his chips, the "house" hands him another stack. So the game goes on.
For if the players ever call it a night, they will discover there are 10 times as many chips on the table as there is cash to back them up.

Last fall, the International Monetary Fund rushed $117 billion in fresh chips to South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand. Wise men know
we will never see that money again. With their currencies collapsed, these Asian economies are probably only half as large, in dollar
value, as they were months ago. And now, they are billions of dollars deeper in debt.

Yet the game must go on. Why? Because if we admitted that Indonesia was bust, that it can never pay back its loans and that these debts
must be written down or written off -- then U.S., European and especially Japanese banks would have to declare huge losses.

Though swamped with debt, these regimes cannot be allowed to do what normal bankrupts do, i.e., default, for that would expose the
bankruptcy of their Western creditors. As Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin can tell you, too much truth can be a bad thing for markets
built on myths.

But Russia's crisis may be our day of reckoning. Moscow is sunk in debt. Tens of billions of dollars of it comes due in 1998. The
money is not there to pay it. Another bailout of Russia is needed, or Moscow goes belly up and defaults.

Last week, however, Russia's chief financial officer, Venianin Sokolov, said that all the previous IMF billions pumped into Russia have
been lost, wasted or stolen "at the highest levels" of Boris Yeltsin's government, which he calls an "entirely corrupt regime." It
"consciously and deliberately blocks efforts to get at the truth," says Sokolov of the thievery. Foreign loans are nothing but a "fix" for a
"dope addict." For the good of Russia, they must stop.

Brave man, Sokolov. Cut to the GOP Congress. Does it have the same courage to expose this fraud? Does it have the courage to say no
more tax dollars to the IMF to bail out corrupt regimes, so they can continue trickling payments to Western creditors, and the creditors
can maintain the falsehood that their loans are good?

Clinton's men are desperate to keep the poker game going. They do not want a global collapse on their watch.

So, the White House last week issued this remarkable statement: "The president wanted to underscore the fact that the United States has
no doubts about the underlying strength of the fundamentals of the Russian economy." Did Mike McCurry say that with a straight face?

Why would Republicans even think of throwing half of 1999's surplus down an IMF rat hole, into a Russian regime even its chief
financial officer says is shot through with larceny and corruption?

Answer: Fear -- fear of what will happen in Russia if we stop paying extortion money, fear of what comes after Yeltsin if we don't bail
him out, fear of Western banks going under if the truth is known that Russia's debt is never going to be paid back.

The big stick Clinton and Rubin hold over Republicans is this threat: If you don't hand over the IMF money and Russia or the Global
Economy collapses, we're going to blame you for the crash!

But if Congress forks over the $18 billion, and the IMF bails out Russia again, we but postpone the moment of truth and deepen the
eventual crash and cleanup. Consider how our ensnarement in this fraudulent Global Economy now ties America's hands.

We cannot sanction Pakistan for firing nuclear weapons, else Pakistan will default on its $32 billion in foreign debt, and American
taxpayers will have to pay off Pakistan's World Bank loans.

We cannot sanction China for shipping nuclear and missile technology to Iran and Pakistan because that would force China to devalue its
currency. Hong Kong would follow, triggering another round of Asian devaluations, forcing even larger IMF-World Bank bailouts,
subsidized by the American taxpayer.

If Vladimir Zhirinovsky comes to power in Russia and decides to discipline Latvia, what do we do? Can we threaten U.S.-NATO
military action against a nation the White House is terrified may default on its debts and ignite a global depression?

The Global Economy is America's straitjacket.

The debtor-nations have discovered that we are more terrified of their defaults than they are. The Global Economy is a honey trap. We
are ensnared and going down with it unless the GOP has the guts to defund the IMF and expose how worthless these foreign debts really
are. It is a time for courage and a time for truth.

Copyright 1998, Creators Syndicate

Bill Buckler
(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:04 - ID#256381)
US Long Bonds and Gold
There was a posting yesterday ( I have lost the gentleman's name ) which stated that there was a definite correlation between US Treasury long bond yields and the $US Gold Price. And it is a fact that the big and sustained Gold bull markets have been accompanied by steadily rising bond yields.

Today, Treasury bond yields rose 7 basis points while Gold was up over $US 3.00. I know that there are persistent rumours that Rubin is about to go to Japan for a meeting re the Yen/Dollar exchange rate, and that this is what it being credited for both the yield rise and the firming of the Yen against the Dollar.

The fact remains though, that Gold and long bond yields rise together. Why, because a sustained rise in long bond yields indicate an increasing uncertainty about the future exchange value of the Dollar.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:07 - ID#14785)
I'm not sure, but is there a pattern here?
From the CBS MarketWatch page at












11:08 DOLLAR DOWN 1.4% TO 144.17 YEN, DOWN 0.8% TO 1.7975 MARK.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:10 - ID#14785)
I'm not sure, but is there a pattern here?
Sorry, let's try this one more time. I put hyphen in the htt-p thingy to prevent the address from working.

From the CBS MarketWatch page at htt-p://












11:08 DOLLAR DOWN 1.4% TO 144.17 YEN, DOWN 0.8% TO 1.7975 MARK.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:11 - ID#194311)
"glooves back on the hook"...on with the news....visualising whirled peas..

Li Zhaoxing, the Chinese Ambassador to the United States, slammed American critics of China just two weeks before President Clinton's trip to the region.

Speaking to the hallowed National Press Club last Friday, Li declared: "China presents no threat to any country, at all."

The ambassador denied U.S. intelligence information that china's nuclear missiles are targeting American cities, saying there's "nothing of the sort that i know of."

Li warned: "Quite on the contrary, your country has got a so-called nuclear umbrella. In this way, let me say very bluntly, that does constitute a sort of nuclear threat to China."

At times Li's tone seemed to mirror recent news items that have moved on the official Chinese news wire XINHUA -- a communist ASSOCIATED PRESS.

One Chinese government release read: "Contrary to a big power's wish to dominate the world... The U.S. meddled in other countries' internal affairs under the pretext of human rights, imposed economic and
trade sanctions and launched missile attacks on other countries. With these hegemonist behaviors, the U.S. was condemned and opposed by more and more countries, including its allies, leaving itself in the
most isolated position..."

Strong stuff.

XINHUA's America bashing never quite makes it over the oceans. The rants never receive domestic coverage by American news outlets, many who have deep financial interest in expanding into Asia [see DISNEYTIMEWARNERWESTINGHUSENEWSCORPGE], so who could blame White House speechwriters for coming across so innocent.

"We are working with China to expand the rule of law and civil society programs in China," President Clinton said last week at the National Geographic Society. The more we share our ideas with the world,
the more the world will come to share the ideals that animate America."

[XINHUA: "The U.S. meddled in other countries' internal affairs under the pretext of human rights."]

"Surely, a new world is dawning on the other side of the millennium. From Shanghai to San Francisco, a community is emerging..." -- President Clinton, toast to Chinese President Jiang Zemin, October 29, 1997

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:12 - ID#246224)
How to accomplish your goals (Y2K) and save the world at the same time.
1 ) First you must clearly articulate your goal. If it is technical in nature you must provide a specification which is unambiguous. ( You must understand what you want. )

2 ) You must make an assessment of the present circumstances, resources and limitations which form the environment in which you will accomplish your goal. ( You must commit necessary resources. )

3 ) You must construct a plan to use current and future resources, taking into account present and future limitations. The plan must describe the journey from concept, through execution to completion of the plan as well as how this completed project saticfies the goal requirements. ( You must know how you can get there from here. )

4 ) You must follow your plan and adjust for changes in the environment which affect the execution of the plan or the relevancy of the goal.



You must, and all those you depend upon must, and who depend upon you must do this perfectly and completely for all equipment and systems which materially affect the whole economy. You have 574 days to accomplish this goal and you must accomplish this goal in all of the major economies and resource nations on the earth at the same time. And you must all remediate all the interconnected networks, data and transactional protocols which interconnect every part of the whole.

You must do this for all power generation and distribution systems.
You must do this for all fuel and energy systems.
You must do this for all transportation systems.
You must do this for all network and telecommunication systems.
You must do this for all financial and market making systems.
You must do this for all material processing systems.
You must do this for all manufacturing systems.
You must do this for all government systems.

You must do this all on an entire 30+ year installed base of infrastructure in each sector with your present staff and budget in

194 days

so that you can test all the changes you made for one full year ( and debug all the things you missed and induced and screwed up, etc ) . You must do this. All your suppliers and customers must do this. The entire world must do this.



Presently 45% of Fortune 250 companies have not finished their ASSESSMENT phase. Only 12% are actually executing remediate projects. This in the most Y2K aware and active nation on earth.


Fat chance.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:17 - ID#210220)
Gold = 290 on CBS Marketwatch.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:22 - ID#340459)
@OLD GOLD - Pat Buchanan assessment of Global economy is TRUTH told in plain language
Is his column available on the net ?

Bill Buckler
(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:24 - ID#256381)
Facts about the July 1997 Aussie Gold Sale
Farfel - and others. Fact 1. The Reserve Bank of Australia made the announcement of the Gold sale at midnight Australian time. Most unusual, although that happens to be 10 AM in New York.

Fact 2. The sale had been completed much earlier. The announcement of the sale was made right after Prime Minister Howard returned from an Official visit to the U.S.

It was not so much the announcment of the Gold sale itself that sank Gold prices, it was the subsequent comment by Australian Treasurer Costello to the effect that Gold had no place in the "modern financial system".

That comment came very shortly after a G-7 summit ( in Denver ) and after Prime Minister Hashimoto's threat to sell Treasuries and buy Gold, made at Princeton University.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:26 - ID#24135)
Id love that ..
Robnoel ..
Some really disturbing news ..
Actually Im bored st!tless.
Lemme hear it ..

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:28 - ID#254269)
Dow up 10 points with 30 minutes to go. Isn't it ......................
amazing ?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:29 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...some info FYI...
...Defense Secretary William Cohen ( has a Jewish name ) but was NOT raised Jewish. He is a gentile.

Secretary of State Allbright...raised Catholic ( discovered she was of Jewish parentage several years ago ) .

So, unfortunately, some of your key contentions are incorrect.

I do not say this to embarrass you. Simply to enlighten you.

You often post good information on this forum and I respect that info.

However, if you go down the road of, "Who's the Jew?" then I believe you will lose respect.

Why don't you also play "Who's the Catholic?" or "Who's the Protestant?"

Isn't it simply a pointless exercise?

I do not dispute your claim that there is a high percentage of Jews in key political positions ( given that they collectively account for less than 5% of the entire US population ) .

That is because most politicians begin their careers as lawyers...and there have always been many Jews in the legal profession.


Because for centuries, Jews were not allowed to own land. They were compelled to make their living from cerebral activity ( trading and professions ) ...not from farming or mining or other land related activities.

So Jews went into the family business...the brain business.

In the end analysis, it really is a pointless discussion.

The forum relates to gold.

I am guilty too of digressions from this topic...I am not without prejudices erroneously expressed.

Frustration spawns these prejudices...calm inner peace expunges them.

Let's strive for inner peace.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:30 - ID#229277)
OLD GOLD: Buchanan's confused
"The debtor-nations have discovered that we are more terrified of their defaults than they are." Duh. Who is the greatest debtor nation of all? Who put the "D" in debt? The USA. I hear the criticism and agree with a lot of it, but what's Buchanan's solution? Cut off trade with the rest of the world, screw 'em, we don't need 'em? If Buchanan gets his timing right he can drive a working class political movement to restrict US/world trade just as the world recession gets going and we can have an exact repeat of The Great Depression.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:32 - ID#25171)
$/ YEN and Japanese banks
Where did japanese banks lend money these last 3 years ? In S.E. ASIA and CHINA

Why are these countries so upset about the collapse in the $/YEN and the correlated recession in JAPAN? After all if they borrowed YEN and get paid in US $ for exports they should be happy ! In fact they just loose their biggest market and become less competitive with japanese goods.

Tough luck they borrowed in dollars . ( in fact they lost so much money when the $/YEN went to 80 in 1995 that they would not even consider borrowing in YEN )

So now , we have japanese banks who borrowed short term heavily in dollars and are not getting their money back from their clients . ( and they won't ever get it back )

With a rising US $ it means that the capital adequacy ratio for japanese banks is deteriorating. It seems that 145 $/YEN is the level at which they have to act or they won't fulfill the B.I.S. cap ad ratio requirements.

What does it mean?

They have to sell $ denominated assets to refurbish their balance sheet.

Hence , if the $/ YEN goes up the DOW goes down.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:33 - ID#28861)
Pat Buchannan is listed at the Drudge Report site:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:47 - ID#242325)

Midas: Pat's URL:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:48 - ID#246224)
If you call him a pig ..
do not include those who are associated with him based on that association.

The problem with labeling is that it insinuates guilt. Guilt laddled out to the named 'group' or trait. Guilt of course must be punished. And so punishment is administrated to the entire group. This is patently false accusation, and false witness; and it leads to murder, but is called 'justice'.

The Jewish people have a long experience of being labeled, hunted and murdered. This has gone on since the diaspora began at the time of the Babylonian captivity. They have been the object of derision and scorn for two and a half millenia.

Please do not participate in persecuting them. It has been the Devil's advocacy for this long time because they are the key to the next Age. If you do persecute them then you are marked in God's sight. He will repay you for that offense. Bless His 'chosen' ones; do not curse them. They are not 'chosen' because they are better then others but because of Abraham's faith toward God. He has promised to keep them and to punish those who persecute them.

"Bless and curse not" applies to all for all.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:50 - ID#290172)
Over the Transom--FYI {:-))


4 APRIL 1998



(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:51 - ID#217268)
Squirrel @ 14:30 re: Wilmington Trust
I don't see where Wilmington Trust was purchased by anyone yet.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:56 - ID#340459)
@Bill Buckler, I find it strange that Australian treasurer comments "Gold has no place in Modern
Doesnt Gold and Gold Mining constitute a substantial part of Australian Economy, Is he saying that Australian economy is not modern ?

These people will sell their souls and their countries openly and no one questions them, the media is more interested in covering sodomite issues.

Can $ and Aussie $ are down the tubes because they sold much Gold.
Canadian economy is doing better overall but the currency is steadily tanking, why ?

The Swiss openly acknowledge that their Franc's are strong because of much gold.

I am sure that media must be promoting Costello as wunderkid, biz whiz
and accolades like they here to Rub-in and Greenspun.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 15:58 - ID#267344)
As long as there is a plunge protection team...
I will NOT play the US Stock Market. Too unpredictable. As long as legal tender does not represent actual value held in a big vault somewhere, I will own very little currency. Too unreliable. As long as Treasure notes are represent debt in that unreliable currency, I will not own them either. Worthless. I guess I should go isolate myself from government socialists. I'll go crawl into some hole somewhere and keep asking myself, "Who is John Galt."
- c

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:00 - ID#410198)
John Disney.....bear in mind this info comes from the Afrikaaner point of view,never agreed with
them when I was there.......... now............I feel there pain

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:08 - ID#348127)

No sir I do not find it hard to believe that people/suckers are still buying into the DOW. I am completely blown away that the NASDAQ was up 2% today. I am wanting to believe that it was completely institutional buying today, but my hunch is that it was mom and dad thinking that they could get greedy one more time. Chances are it will work out for them this time but the day draws nearer that they will take it on the chin.
I spoke of VGZ @ RANGY yestereday and am pleased to report that just befor the bell they were both up 12 and 15% respectivly.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:11 - ID#25171)
The best way to make money is to start a moving company .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:12 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes-'n-y2k-worries
All: An insider's view of the Y2K problem as it relates to nuclear power plant production: , or read the layman's version here: .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:14 - ID#288369)
I must say that I have very little respect for the entire class of investors who willingly choose not to have Harmony stock in their portfolio. And yet, I have no axe to grind. For I have lost my axe.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:19 - ID#348127)

What I get most from this group is insght into what the most in tune group of people in America are thnking.
You really are a wild bunch.
My observation of this group act as a doomsday clock for our economy. It seems to flutter back and forth between 5 and 2 minutes till midnight.
Right now the clock s being inched up towards 2. Just a guess but we are not far from striking the top of the hour.
Bad for everyone, but not as bad for goldbugs.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:21 - ID#24135)
I thought you had something good
robnoel ..
The afrikaaner leaders screwed them .. de klerk
was the worst .. Viljoen just wants a job .. he's
the same as the rest .. They have no leaders and
have not any for a very long time.
There will be no afrikaner revolution nor any
other kind of revolution . nor will there be a
Volkstad .. The nitwits should just leave the
farms and move to the cape .. problem is they
wont accept coloreds any more than Blacks ..
even though coloreds are non african and consider
themselves European.
They are bringing problems on themselves .. it
seems to be their specialty .. also the government
they ran was more socialist and more meddlesome ( sp? )
by FAR than the ANC government is. and thats
saying a lot.
For example .. you can take money out of the
country now .. not so under the nats.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:23 - ID#340459)
@OLD GOLD, Thanks - Re: Pat B - it is refreshing to hear opinions other than Rub-in and Green-spun.
Those guys speak with a forked tongue, IMHO, Rub-in and Clinton Admin is deliberately leading Japanese economy down the tubes,
they are treated to concerted worldwide negative global coverage of their economy and Moody's does it parts of downgrading their industry.
Hanstitmeyer of Bundesbank said it rightly that this is being overdone and Japanese have substantial savings, favourable trade balances, modern Industrial infrastructure etc. But y'know CNN and US entertainment and news media is every where and they can brand anyone anyhow, the US media has more power and influence around the globe than all the assets of the pentagon and then some in drawing people to their way of thinking, same person can be coined a "freedom fighter" or "terrorist". Russia is more of a "An Evil Empire" currently now compared to when this phrase was popular during Cold War

People at kitco often cheer falling asian markets, currencies etc., little realizing that these markets buy and support gold and US $ strength is the root cause for weak gold.

USA was the first to delink and then degrade gold's role in national and global economy.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:27 - ID#288186)
Latest Comex Warehouse totals...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 16

Gold 1,016,374 - 498 troy ounces
Silver 85,820,205 - 117,590 troy ounces
Copper 74,739 - 556 short tons

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:28 - ID#253418)
To Studio R re HGMCY
I'm with you Studio R - Harmony on a comparative basis looks like one of the best gold buys out there. There must be a reason why it is so cheap, realatively speaking, probably has to do with its location and the stability of South Africa. Not betting everything on HGMCY but how can yu go on without it.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:32 - ID#288369)
@jims....lend me that oar!
I shall row with you. Heave Ho! ;^ ) ~

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:33 - ID#36156)
Quotes Withdrawal
Hey BartMan ... any chance you can give us a preview of the new quote screen thingie?????

Some of us are dying here ... starting to strike out at each other ... losing our manners ... wetting the floor ... pulling out guns ... tearing up the good book ... and all because WE GOT NO QUOTES!!!!!! ... DO YOU??????

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:35 - ID#43349)
Japan does not have the wherewhithall to handle the yen/dollar problem
on it's own hook. The problem moreover is not just a Japanese one, but
arises because the dollar is too strong in comparison to most world

The $US up until just the last day or two had seemingly adopted a reather
laisez faire attitude with respect to the situation.

The situation could not and can not be allowed to continue without
bringing the global economy down into prolonged recession if not

Without $US help, the Japanese and other players in the world banking
game are left with no recourse but to band together in bringing the
$US to more reasonable levels. The game plan would be to sell dollars
in return for anything else ( yen or marks or barrels of oil or bars
of gold makes little difference, just dump dollars ) . The net effect would
be inflationary in terms of the $US.

If the US does not wish to lose it's leadership status in world economic
affairs, it must drop it's devil may care attitude and quickly get
involved with working with the global financial community or else
it will bear the fruits of it's isolationism.

Events will now be coming to a head. Watch the movements of treasury
officials, the dollar and commodity prices this week and the next.

The game's afoot.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:36 - ID#317193)
Observations...what's important...or who is...
I am a Jew ( converted to Judaism today ) , black merkan ( very dark suntan ) , female ( sex change operation this afternoon ) ,over 50 ( true ) , gold shorting ( some truth here, at times ) person ( note non-gender specific term used ) . I am ready to defend and offend any negative banter hurled against my religious preferences, my race or color, my country, sex, age or what have you. Further, be advised I am constantly changing and will take offense as deemed appropriate.

Fair warning to all, when confronted by such abuses I will not refuse to respond and will demolish all such posters with my brilliance and eloquence.

In fact, I will post even more so as to be able to reread all my posts which, BTW, I have collected and will publish soon. Walk in the paw prints of a short person...Kosaros is doing the publishing and will post my THOUGHTS as he does for OTHERS.: )

How important am I? Just ask me. Humility..never heard of such a thing. I'm right...and positive of this. What, only fools are positive? Are you sure? Yes, I'm positive!

I bet Gollum wishes his greatest worry was an attack on this forum. Every thing is relative. Kindness is not a four letter word...vain is. Be happy, the alternative s*cks. Off to slash at the small white orb.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:37 - ID#43349)
I'll get back with you guys later. I just had to come home and
get some stuff. And away I go...

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:38 - ID#347457)
Kitco tone, Oh my, Oh my
My deer friends, lately I don't have too much time to participate ( and probably to contribute ) , however I read your posts and occasionally open my mouth. From this stand back position I sometimes do not understand all these foodfights. Lately, they are of increased intensity - must be related to overall market volatility. We tend to be more tense when our money is in precarious position.

We all would be better off if we approached all posts with more open mind and were more sensitive to feelings and thoughts of other posters ( instead of trying to out shout others with "our view how things are" ) . I work in Y2K area but I try to stay out of Y2K discussions ( sometimes very heated discussions ) because whatever is your position somebody will say "it ain't so".

I apologize for contributing to some foodfights last night. I refuted one sentence in Liberty's post "no one at Loral have TS clearance" and that triggered a very emotional reaction from him. Sorry LGB that I did not explain myself better - maybe you would not feel that I am accusing you ( and Loral ) of treason - I was just trying to refute the statement you made using your own company job posting. I stop right there to prevent any useless aggravation in our exchange.

As far as the last night question about how I see Y2K impact on scale 1 to 10, I still am somewhere in 6 - 7. The reason for this is that, based on my dealings with multiple large gov. agencies and private companies, I don't have any confidence that we know how to successfully manage the large IT projects in such a short time. Not a deep technical problem but a management disaster ( paying for our lack of software engineering discipline in the last two decades, and continue to do so )

No, I am not buying any power generators and additional ammo ;- )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:43 - ID#410198)
John Disney...Although I agree with you,the Afrikaaner people were also screwed by Great Britain,
France,and the US......Ian Smith tried to warn them......the corruption is no different than here in the US.......the reports I get are mainly from Johannesburg seems to be turning into another Beirut.....the question is how long can the Cape stay seperated

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:46 - ID#26793)
You should be aware that your sex change operation may qualify you for some discount airfares. Some of those deals require that you stay abroad for 30 days or more.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:46 - ID#250121)
Angry and Ugly at kitco but----

some of my best friends are deers. :-^ )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:47 - ID#347457)
Oh My, I am expecting a lot of angry responses
Well, sorry again. I meant to say "My dear friends" instead of "My deer friends". My fingers don't work very well ( and there is no brain left in me )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:53 - ID#194311)
Crystal Ball ... that's quite catchy...!
kill paper assets, plug your portflio full of gold!

and silver bullets.

Me's still waiting for that big precious METAL SPIKE to be driven right through the heart of THE stockmarket BEAST.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 16:57 - ID#36156)
TYoung - and who shall we refer to as FRIEND OF TYOUNG???

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:00 - ID#36156)
It's all in your mind...
Two fellows were talking in a bar when the first fellow says "Hey,
what you just said was a Freudian slip!" The second fellow said "What?
I don't know what you mean." The first fellow said "You know, when you
say what you are thinking instead of what you wanted to." The second
fellow says "I still don't know what you mean.." So the first fellow
says "You know, like when you are standing at an airline ticket
counter being helped by a beautiful buxom blonde and you say 'I'd like
two pickets to Titsburg." The second fellow says "Oh! Now I
understand! That happens to me all the time. As a matter of fact, it
happened to me yesterday when my wife and I were at the breakfast
table and I meant to say 'Please pass the milk' but what actually came
out was 'You lousy bitch, you've ruined my life!'"

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:02 - ID#254269)
Kitco FFI ( food fight index ) reaches "irrationally exuberant " new high. Donald is now telling

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:03 - ID#253418)
Silver stocks still declining
Ah, but who cares??? I know what will happen. We'll get some continued strenght in the yen, silver will rise with gold, some talking head will mentioned the decline in silver stocks ( news? ) and pop up silver will go for a few more days then blammm it will get sold back down to $5. This will go on for a few more tens of millions of ozs of decline until the situation is so ridiculous the market can not ignore it.

Great opportunity unless the silver is just being moved to Europe to create the appearance of a shortage - now wouldn't that be cleaver - to fool we little pions into thinking there is a shortage while the large hedge funds short into the great deflation of '98, driving silver down to its true economic value around $3.85.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:07 - ID#26793)
I am unable to find an accurate spot gold or silver price tonight so unless someone has located a close figure I will post the ratios in the morning using the prices in the newspaper.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:09 - ID#201238)
Bear warning
Date: Tue Jun 16 1998 15:50
SDRer__A ( Over the Transom--FYI {:- ) ) ) ID#290172:

Thanks for the warning - I am going to Alaska next week. I am off to find some big bells!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:13 - ID#210235)
Here's Monex - it's current. Gold $288.50, silver $5.18

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:14 - ID#194311)
HenryD....this is entirely (in)appropriate...I hope
What's the similarity between cunnilingus and the mafia?

One slip of the tongue and you are in the sh!t.

ergo JFK, RR and now I.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:16 - ID#258142)
Silver goes up
I was experimenting with time series approximation by linear segments. I used silver data and minimize maximum distance between observations and lines and while adding break points. The result is ( IMHO ) interesting: patterns are pretty close to Elliot wave theory, segments length - almost fibonacci. In attached chart: impulsive wave up ( segments A-B-C-D-E ) , then correction ( a-b-c-d ) then side waves ( d-e ) before turning up. If this chart is right, correction is over and silver will go up soon.
PS Chart is small - only 10Kb

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:16 - ID#57232)
Kitco cycles -- and Kitcoite perceived reality
aurator: I think you have to tolerate those upovers ( Merkans mostly ) who periodically lose their manners. Must be the stress of watching the markets gyrate, or ??. I find it interesting that some of us post day in and day out without much variation. Others are much more volatile.

Did you see mapleman's post? I guess this site does look a little odd to a relative outsider -- so much 'Gloom and Doom'. I look at Kitco a little differently, having a 'Gloomer and Doomer' in the family for nearly 20 years, who wisely prepared for the gold rally in the 60's and 70's , and then proceeded to lose all of his profits in the next twenty years. And then some.

The way I look at Kitco is that we discuss the 'possible', but not necessarily the 'real'. Some of us are consistently bullish gold and bearish everything else, regardless of the reality, and some of us are much more attuned to what is actually happening. It takes time to sort out the personalities, and weigh their connection with reality. But -- anyway you look at it -- even discussion of the possible is worthwhile, even if it is Gloomish.

I have always believed that to chart a course in difficult waters it is best to see all the hazards, even if you can avoid them. I also like to imagine ( naively perhaps ) that there are influential figures who lurk at Kitco who believe the same thing.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:32 - ID#36156)
kiwi - Tsk, tsk.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:39 - ID#57232)
Donald telling Jokes?
Avalon: You haven't seen anything yet. Wait till he starts spouting out Vedic Astrology, or that Banker's black humor! Right, Donald?

Donald: Interesting times. I wonder how much longer our deflationary period will last, before AG gets nervous and starts expanding the money supply again. May not work like he expects.

Any news about South America? Has anyone been able to put a finger in the dike? My guess is that the next big domino to fall will be Venezuela, or Brazil. I think American investments in South America are much more substantial, in contrast to SEAsia.

The Chinese Yuan devaluation appears imminent now, with the local rhetoric sounding much less pro-American. I find that amazing, given what BC has done to promote China as most favored nation. Partnership with China may only last for as long as their leaders think they will benefit. UNfortunately, it is neccessary to maintain a slightly adversarial stance with the Communist Chinese leaders, to they will not address the human rights issues they must face.

I still don't know if my small investment in precious metals stocks is a good idea or not. I don't want to miss the bandwagon when gold rallies, but on the other hand, we are not talking about a simple, pure inflationary scenario. And -- it is harder for gold to go up when the US dollar is going up due to 'flight to safety'.

Either way you look at it -- keep ( most of ) your powder dry! And -- you know that better than I!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:52 - ID#254269)
Decision re Summers Japan Trip "shortly", according to RR ;

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:53 - ID#26793)
I search for Latin American news every day. The last item of telling importance was news on plunging sugar prices and the impact on Brazil. Each of these seemingly small pieces of news is like piranha bite out of the world economic body. Everything connects to everything.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:54 - ID#290172)
Did he? or didn't he?
This is a perfect example of the analyst's agony. Sir Leon gives, in one brief introductory paragraph, a basic justification for the existence of the gold standard. Did he knowingly structure the sentence so?

Speech given by Sir Leon Brittan
Vice-President of the European Commission
Rede Lecture, Cambridge University
20th February 1997

First, however, it is worth dwelling a little on what globalization actually means. It has been argued that todays globalization is a throwback to the world economy of the late 19th century. Borders then were open to migration, total international capital flows in relation to GDP were greater than they are now, the gold standard imposed a high level of international monetary restraint and the destiny of great trading nations like the UK was entirely dependent on international trade. According to this logic, the rash of trade protectionism and monetary instability in the interwar years, and even the breakdown of
the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s are, historically speaking, abberations. The rule, it is said, has always been globalization. [WHERE there was GOLD as a settlement 'ruler'--SDRer]

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:56 - ID#252107)
yen panic
Princeton just posted Yen Panic & Y2K - a must read!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:57 - ID#290172)
Donald--"Everything connects to everything."
Right words at the RIGHT time. I needed that! {:- ) )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 17:58 - ID#433172)
System malfunction
Racism is worldwide, to be reared by any ethnic group means adopting the values, religon, evalution patterns of that group. We all know that.
Does racial conflict surprise anybody? I can't eat a tootsie roll anymore without having a bad thought.
What did Kiwi do that was so bad? Jew boy is an insult? Probably, but a very minor one and it provokes such a massive response. Keeping everybody shut up is the worst possible result. Why not a jewish conspiricy theroy, plenty of facts support one. Most jews are ordinary people, I know that to be true,but as a group they seem to have more gifted musicians, scientists and LAWYERS than anybody else. Oh yeah, BANKERS. That makes them powerful ( group ) pollitically, and our "special relationship" is the result.
My wife says fix the porch, then solve the worlds problems, I know whats important.----off to fix the porch.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:02 - ID#209265)
JTF - the US$ will . . .
stop going up when people in unstable areas like Asia run out of money to put into US investments. This will happen if, say, a flood of bankruptcies in Japan trigger large selloffs of US bonds, or banks fail to meet their capitalization requirements and have to sell US bonds off. The Japanese gov't may decide to sell its holdings of US treasuries if it figures that it will have to go it alone on defense ( this is the trump card the US administration has over Japan- they have relied on the US for defense since WWII. )

Either capital flight will come to an end as people run out of money to send out of their countries, or the US$ will lose its attractiveness for some reason, in which case people will start putting their flight capital into PM's and a rock solid currency like the Swiss franc ( which will further exacerbate the problems the Swiss have with an overvalued currency. )

- Steve

BTW- if you're thinking of travelling to Switzerland in the near future, prepare to take the financial hit of your life. Prices in the cities there are high even in SFr, based on what people seem to make, but when you're converting from US$ or C$ they are mind-boggling. Of course, when Swiss people travel outside their country, the world is their oyster.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:06 - ID#273227)
all the news fit to print?
Today is Tuesday 6/16/98, I found out today that on Friday 6/12/98 at 3:06 the Nasdaq SOES and Instinet computer systems where shutdown. No orders were accepted for the rest of the day. No warning. No explaination. Just shut down.

Was this reported anywhere?

If you are wondering how important this event was - look at the intraday chart for friday of the $NDX. Yesterday and today everyone was spooked near the end of the day. When will they do it again?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:07 - ID#286249)
Fate of the dollar? Some gentle, but pointed, words...
Yves-Thibault de SILGUY
Member of the European Commission
Responsible for economic, monetary and financial affairs
DN: SPEECH/97/182
Date: 1997-09-18

The euro and the international monetary system

World financial relations continue to be dominated largely by the dollar, which is used in 50% of international transactions and in 80% of dealings on foreign exchange markets. There is therefore an imbalance between the United States' economic and commercial role and the influence of the dollar. The United States' de facto virtual monopoly of the issue of the international currency, combined with its low sensitivity to external trade, makes it less exposed to the external consequences of variations in its currency's rate. That is not a criticism of the United
States authorities but an inevitable consequence of the dominant role-played by the dollar in practice. As former Treasury Secretary Connolly used to say, "the dollar is our currency but your problem".

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:08 - ID#295111)
Farfel post at 15:29 and OLDGOLD
I disagree with your reply to OLDGOLD. The subject matter is relevant to this gold forum cause if there is a conspiracy to control the POG, we need to explore all avenues, to see who and how it is done. If OLDGOLD's comments are erroneous, there will be a rebuttal to his arguements such as the one you have done. Then we can make up our minds as to the facts and opinions.
That;s the beaty of the Internet, we can say what we want and hear what we want, not like CNBC at al propaganda.
Wake up Farfel, Bad Jews control much and Arabs know it, but these Bad Jews are in competition with the Freemasons who will teach them a good lesson in the end.
Note that I said Bad Jews. That means, I believe there are good Jews.
Listen, there are bad apples in every crowd.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:08 - ID#218382)
We are brothers and sisters in dangerous times. Siblings quarrel but eventually unite, once the offending party apologizes.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:09 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.04. The 50 day moving average is 30.01. ( Thanks Prometheus )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:10 - ID#286249)
Steve in TO--the world is an oyster to traveling Swiss...
Could gold be their pearl? {:- ) )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:14 - ID#273227)
Correction - Island not Instinet
Mistake - the Island system was shutdown - the Instinet system was how the traders from our office unloaded their positions. Very few SOES shops have Instinet.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:19 - ID#254269)
Free Republic Website has some interesting posts re Monica (remember her ?),
the Starr Investigation and 38,000 pages of documents subpoenaed from James Carville. It's amazing how some of this is never reported by the
major news networks.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:22 - ID#287186)
Kiwi - the "fringe right" reflects poorly on OWNERS of GOLD & SILVER
To me, right fringe describes a behavior that includes race or ethnic discrimination often by people who feel themselves morally or physically superior to an inferior group. It also usually includes scapegoating, finding a conspiracy under every rock, paranoia to the point where normal everyday activity is disrupted, distrust of everyone {those not with us must be against us} demagoguery, sowing fear and distrust to make a profit from those affected, flagrant and irresponsible use of weapons to intimidate others, use of force or intimidation against those not sharing the above behaviors or beliefs, etc.
FREE SPEECH or the freedom to throw words around ends at the tip of my nose. This applies to the behavior above which leads others to prejudicially lump ME in with those who practice right fringe behavior simply because I may own a gun or buy Gold, store food, or believe in Y2K. It is WE who are damaged by such behavior. Other Kitcoites have noticed this when they try to spread the word about Gold or Y2K. They sometimes are perceived to be one of those right wing nuts!
Example: A true survivalist trying to live quietly by himself in a rural area is discovered to maybe own some guns, gold and a year of food. People suddenly include him with gun totin, camo wearin terrorists or racial supremacists who hunt down innocent minority folk, bomb government buildings or shoot rural sheriff deputies. Next time somebodys dog gets shot - the cops haul him in for questioning.
Another example: a sailor, *while in uniform*, goes down town, gets obnoxiously drunk, abuses or rapes a woman, and incites a riot in a bar. This reflects poorly on his shipmates. After the civilian police and judge get done with him his shipmates are rightly justified in giving him at least a blanket party when he gets back aboard - if their commander doesnt get to him first and maybe anyway to boot. Why? Because the next time a sailor goes down town and especially if he goes to that bar he will naturally be prejudged by the townspeople and bar owner as one of those drunken, raping, fighting, sailors from THAT ship or just one of THOSE sailors period.
Now do you understand why some of us object to others swattin a bees' nest. Because next time we are quietly strolling by we get stung cuz they assume us to be one of THEM nest swatters.

The Hatt
(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:23 - ID#294232)
Glen The Mighty Seller Of Gold!
Guess your divergence never materialized today! When I read posts such as yours I have to wonder about your credibility! Give us a little more detail on your previous trades, just so we truly know we are not dealing with an idiot! We need a lesson from the great white gold trader!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:29 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .238. The 50 day moving average is .271. My database contains 16 occasions when the XAU closed in the 68.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #12. The #1 ranking was on April 29, 1986, with a gold price of $345, an XAU of 68.71, producing a XAU/AU ratio of .199

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:30 - ID#427357)

China must devalue ( even though this will only be a short term measure ) , and is now setting up both Japan and the U.S. as the reasons for the devaluation.

The first trigger of the world wide economic collapse was the financial

deregulation of Japan. By allowing this money to flee Japan it will collapse the Nippon banks as funds are withdrawn. Secondly, as these funds flee Japan, they are exchanged for other currencies, thus devaluing the Yen. Consequently, this is causing tremendous deflationary pressures worldwide - but particularly in China.

A recent survey of the top 5,000 company's in China showed sales down 9% and production down 2% in the last quarter. Inventories continue to surge which will eventually collapse bank credit. With the Yen having fallen substantially since the first Quarter, and the Japanese economy contracting on a daily basis, these figures will only get worse

much worst!

As previously mentioned, the second trigger will be the devaluation of the Chinese yuan. Much detailed report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:31 - ID#209265)
Japan should be openiong for Wed. trading soon . . .
They closed out Tuesday down a couple of percent, at 14720. Will they keep sliding down?

- Steve

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:32 - ID#26793)
@ Kitco
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.69. The 50 day moving average for the G/S Ratio is 52.57. The 50 day moving average for spot gold is $300.73

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:36 - ID#45173)
JTF: the 'Gloomer and Doomers' in MY family
were my Dad and Uncle. As a kid I remember hearing my father on the phone with my uncle discussing the expected outcome of Nixon signing away the dollar from gold. They bought gold and they were right, but only my Dad sold it and made a good profit. My Dad passed away six years ago and I put my inheritence into the stock market. My sister invested hers in her career as a screen writer and has been very succesful. My brother invested his in his career as an inventor and has not been so successful. And so it goes.

My uncle hung onto his gold this whole time. He laughed at himself for his folly when I went to visit him a couple of months ago. At 87, he's got a well developed sense of humor about himself. I hope I do at his age.

When I was a kid listening in on their phone calls, one of the topics they'd discuss at length is, "What's going to happen to the USA with all this debt?" That's when the national debt was a tenth of what it is today. To men of their generation, born defore WWI, it was shocking, a portent of doom. A nation once had what was called "national treasure," a monetary reserve that allowed the nation to survive hardship, a hard-won resource that determined a country's rightful place as a leader in the world. The fact is that the USA's debt discredits the nation. The USA's preeminence is an illusion. A few foreign nations can shine a very, bright harsh light of truth simply by selling a few treasuries.

I told my uncle the other day that I'd bought a lot of gold over the past month. He said the sad truth is that for all the false expectations of doom he's had over the years, creative minds have kept the "house of cards" standing, and that if he'd known that they'd been able to keep it going as long as they have, from the perspective of his lifetime, of how he'd lived his life, he'd have made different choices. The doomsayer's life is not a fun life. Now he can see more clearly his projection of his own sense of doom upon the world as an expection of doom in the world. He underestimated the creative minds, he said.

And he said he felt bad for me because now the creative minds are overestimated by everyone at the moment when it is clear that they are out of creative ideas. First the fraudulent scheme of Marxist economic theory was discredited by reality and the Soviet Union fell. Next the chess game between neoclassical ecomonic theory and reality will end in a checkmate by reality. The debt will come home. The hog is in the tunnel.

Thanks for your post.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:42 - ID#26793)
Eleven EU countries reportedly close to exempting gold from Value Added Tax (VAT

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:44 - ID#45173)
Racism on the Internet
There was once a theory that a million monkeys at a million typewriters might eventually produce the works of William Shakespeare. We have the Internet to thank for proving this theory false.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:46 - ID#368244)
@ EJ

Your last post is a breath of fresh air in a somewhat stale environment.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:48 - ID#256381)
Costello And Gold
Midas ( 15:56 ) When Mr Costello ( Aussie Treasurer ) made his comments re the RBA's Gold sale ( Gold having no part to play in a modern economy ) he was not saying that Aussie was NOT a "modern" economy. On the contrary, he was saying that it WAS a "modern" economy.

A modern economy, according to Mr Costello and a lot of other people, many of them much more financially influential than he is, has no need for Gold. Mr Costello, in announcing that the proceeds from the RBA gold sale had been invested in sovereign debt instruments, was merely putting an official seal of approval on what has been intimated for years.

A final point. Australia doesn't "have gold". A number of mining companies have gold. And so do quite a few individual Aussies.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:50 - ID#26793)
@Steve in TO
I don't want to predict the Nikkei for tonight but I am confident to predict the trend down over the next several months to below 10,000

(Tue Jun 16 1998 18:57 - ID#294232)
The Hatt (Glen The Mighty Seller Of Gold!) ID#294232:
Hello Mr. Hatt:

Glenn has been short almost all the way down and was originally jsut a kitcoite like the rest of us. Glenn became a local on the Comex about two years ago. His record is better than mine and almost everyone else around here.

Glenn, RJ,and Old Man are the only people at this site that are consistantly right. It may only be luck, but it is still a fact that they have been correct and the rest of us wrong.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:00 - ID#360150)
HELLO..........heads up!
Veneroso camp got confirm from Mitsui, large buyer in East Asia, will probably cause a $50 pop in gold price on short squeeze.

I am willing to bet a suqeeze like that is gonna be bigger.

Massive huge record shorts and leased out bullion right now.

Any of you got estimates of the kind of upside potential a real short squeeze might do in POG terms right now.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:02 - ID#290172)
Donald--behind the scenes it is a 'done deal'
{:- )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:02 - ID#215379)
Time to Shine
With Japan now buying gold in large chunks, the Asian market will get back some luster as other Asian nations see the positive effect of gold purchases on their currencies. Look for things in Asia to improve from here.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:03 - ID#26362)
Steve in TO
I was in Switzerland a year or so ago. I had to buy a dress shirt. They wanted over $100. An average $200,000 house in the U.S. will sell for $1 million. It is crazy. I bet real estate in Japan is still out of this world- at least if you live in the USA outside NYC.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:03 - ID#45173)
Steve in TO: So far I've called the Nikkei on Fri to make it back to
15000 and to not make it back to 15000 Mon. But last night I figured it to struggle back up to the open, but alas it didn't make it and close down 107. That means the situation there is worse than I expected. A new $4B stimulus package was announced today. Japanese traders have become so cynical that these announcements usually result in a big sell-off. My guess tonight is that the Nikkei opens slightly off, but I have no insight into events after that. I'll watch the ponies run around the track for an hour or so and get back to you later tonight.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:08 - ID#373284)
before I shattered his spine I held him up and said Sir would not there be better ways for us to discuss this matter...

I did not injure him...had a drink...LOVE to ALL...

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:16 - ID#45173)
Isure: Thanks

Good ol' boy
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:24 - ID#26362)
Just reviewed about four hours worth
Oh my, oh my

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:24 - ID#43460)
farfel, Kiwi, tolerent1, all rest easy!
I have it on good report that the conspiracy to overthrow the world and corner the market on everything is entirely made up of US farmers of Norwegian ancestry. How do I know this? In a moment of weakness my sister let slip that her Norwegian husband was a member of this cabel. Now I have no personal knowledge of this as I'm unable to pass their initiation rite: first a ludafisk dinner then a night of Canasta playing while consuming gallons of coffee followed by a hot sauna, dip in a frozen lake and severe beating with willow switches. Any of you Kitcoites have any more information?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:25 - ID#242325)
Farfel: Being a Jew myself and a REGULAR reader of th Jewish Journal -- the major weekly Jewish newspAper in America -- I know something about the subject of Jewish power in America. Simply put it is enormous. And has never been greater than today. A recent column in the Jewish Journal mentioned that nearly half the Democratic Party's funds come from Jewish sources. And that plus their tremendous control over the media is why the Jewish power elite ( quite distinct from the average Jew ) dominates this Administration so comletely.

This dominance probably has been good in many ways if one believes in civil liberies and civil rights. But the jewish elite also has been a key force behind the push for a global economy and US world domination -- two of the big negatives for POG.

Frankly i feel more comfortable with the Jews having this power than say the Catholic Church given its history of virulent anti-semitism and thought control. But no serious analyst can ignore the huge power wielded by the Jewish elite in America today. Just as no analysis of 19th century America can ignore the dominant influence then of the WASP elite.

When writng for other Jews many Jews admit this. But let a gentile say and many will accuse him of being anti-semitic.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:29 - ID#209265)
EJ- thanks for your comment, Donald . . .
Why do you think the NIkkei will go down to 10,000? That would make the losses very similar to those of the DJIA in 1929-1932, which lost around 80% of its value.

- Steve

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:30 - ID#242325)
I will post no more on the subject of Jewish influence in America. Except to say that those who ignore it do so at their financial peril.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:31 - ID#432157)
HOPEFULL---how good is your SOURCE----please

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:34 - ID#287186)
Kiwi, apology about the slip accepted....George, explanation follows
I too have been guilty of saying things like %*# _____ {Insert any stereotype}. Being in the retail/restaurant business for a lot of years has made me aware of how easy it is for such remarks to start a feedback loop. Waiters or waitresses taking a break in the backroom complain to each other about the %*# _____ who didn't leave them a tip, etc. Other staff quickly pick up the thread. Pretty soon an attitude arises that pegs people of that %*# _____ as lousy customers. The attitude seeps out as nonverbal language. It is no wonder the tips get worse.
I now find myself more aware of such "slips" and how self-reinforcing they are. It takes a conscious effort to separate the behavior from the person. I try to bite my tongue but I fail more often than I like. But I keep trying. I guess that is all any of us can do.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:38 - ID#242325)
Steve Kaplan predicting $340 POG and 7000 Dow this year. A differrnt take than Abbey.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:39 - ID#347447)
This n' that
TYoung: you sound like a smart chick to me!

Re BROTHER ARDEN, and his cryptic 17:09 about "big bells" in Alaska: Arden is going North to Alaska very shortly to check out doings at our Myrtle Creek gold property. An advisory from the state ( Alaska, that is ) warns visitors in the bush to wear bells to keep away the bears, who have become very numerous of late. ( The bears in Alaska, not the gold bears ...or goldilocks and the bears...or... ) My corporate compatriot Arden tells me that the way to spot the presence of Grizzlies is to look for bells in the droppings. I'm glad I'm staying home on Long Island this trip. Have a great time up in the Golden State of Alaska, Arden. I'll keep a light in the window for you.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:39 - ID#45173)
NY Times FINALLY covers Y2K and (surprise!) it's really CUUUUTE!
Sorry for the long URL.|Latest_Columns|read|/home/content/users/imds/feeds/nytsyn/1998/06/15/cndin/9255-0253-pat_nytimes


Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:41 - ID#209265)
Good ol' boy . . .
You know, one of the things I was thinking about people living in Switzerland was: If you had a lot of shopping to do it would pay you to get into your car and drive into France, Italy, Germany- anywhere else, and load up there. You'd easily save enough to make the trip worthwhile.

I never asked anyone about this, but it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people are doing it. The high prices must also be dampening tourism. Maybe this is why businesspeople are putting so much pressure on the gov't to get exchange rate down. Maybe the central bank has been talking about gold sales to try to trigger exchange rate cuts- but if they actually did sell the gold they'd have to exchange a large tranche of foreign currency into SFr- jacking up the exchange rate, unless they held some other currency like US$, in which case they'd be exposed to capital losses.

- Steve

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:43 - ID#376309)
My Position
I'm short 5 Aug contracts from $297.80 and 10 from $287.50.
I have an open order day session only stop on all 15 at $293.10.

If we see $293.10 during the day session of COMEX then everyone can FLAME ME all you want. Until then the gane is still going. Today's action does not alter my views.

Lastly, since I am very bearsih I am NOT taking profits anytime soon. At some point I will lower my stop but $280 is NOT my objective!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:45 - ID#220325)
Glenn and The Hatt
Glenn, I don't think The Hatt has been with us long enough to know that you are one of our more respected contributors.

The Hatt, Our friend Glenn has posted the negative side of gold reluctantly because he was senitive enough not to want to hurt our feelings if gold went down. He has only posted the downside recently because he was prevailed upon to do so, it puts no money in his pocket. Glenn is a trader and as such has to play either side of the market to survive. Glenn has always been a gold bug but when the odds are against it going up he tries to inform us so that we may make the best decision possible for our trades and for his honesty I thank him.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:47 - ID#242325)
GLENN: Thanks for keeping us amateurs informed! I too am suspicious of today's action. Bullion and XAU were strong, but the broader based Toronto Gold index was pretty pathetic.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:48 - ID#288295)
Ed Dames interview with Art Bell - comments on GOLD
Scroll down and click on the June 11 interview transcript. Gold comments are in part 7 of 8.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:49 - ID#347447)
Jewish Cabal
As for those damned Jews, it's about time someone blowed the whistle on their shennanigans. Nice to see who here at Kitco is defending Western Civilization. I can never forgive them for the way that damned Saint Paul pulled the biggest marketing scam of all on us and gave us Christianity. What a devious, subversive plot that was. Got everyone to turn in their gold like a bunch o' damn Ko-ree-ans. Render unto Caeser crap, n' all that, n' next thing you know the guvmint got all the gold just like FDR ( Who must've been a Jeeew too, I reckon ) . Well, next thing you know, them Jews got all the "Christians " ( actually originally just a bunch o' Jeeews ) lining up in the Church pews putting sheckels in the old alms basket. Now I'll give you three guesses who that money gets back to. ( Rubin, Greenspan, and Albright, if she had any damn sense in her Jewish kupf! ) Damn right. What ticks me off, personally, as an astrologer, is the way them Jews created this blood drinking, human flesh eatin' sect called Christianity what persecutes us star gazers within an inch of our life. An' we never burned no one at no stake, no how. Damn Jews. I think Clinton must be one of 'em, but I ain't got proof, so I'll just make some innuendos. But nothin' hard and fast. Don't want to seem like I ain't got the milk o' human kindness in my veins. I say forgive and forget. Just they ain' goin to heaven, tha's fer sure. Damn Jeeews.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:52 - ID#373284)
TO all..I AM the blanket..................
LOVE ALL OF YOU...........all that is me...provides...Love you all...

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:53 - ID#209265)
MIke -People who know grizzlies know that . . .
i ) for some reason they often call of an attack if their victim lies completely still ii ) they can't climb trees ( although some grizzlies have been known to jump as high as 15' when attempting to get a climbing victim down from a tree. )

Should a grizzly attack, the attackee has to decide which approach to take-playing possum or starting up a tree- pronto. I've been told that the ones who decide to climb a tree perform amazing feats of agility that would make the Wallenda family look uncoordinated. Nothing like impending death to focus the mind, so to speak : )

FWIW neither of the above strategies work with black bears. i ) They regard a victim lying still as an invitation to have lunch, and ii ) they can climb trees.

- Steve

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:54 - ID#427357)

Internationally-acclaimed market analyst and author is particularly brilliant this week in the generous sharing of his vast financial knowledge. Moreover, Dines sharp wit makes for an entertaining read. Following are brief excerpts from his this week's report.

"Currencies crash in Thailand, and in Indonesia you can now get three pounds of sugar, one pound of coffee, one bottle of wine and a wife for only ten US dollars." Hello, TWA Airlines? When's the next flight to South-East Asia?

"and Pfizer considers adopting as its motto, "Viagra is a pill men can stand up for!"

On a more serious vane, "WHY THE IMF SHOULD BE ABOLISHED."

"The International Monetary Fund needs to be horsewhipped on television, worldwide, for raising taxes instead of having correctly linked paper currencies to gold."

"Kill the IMF." - ( Dines was trying to get into Tolerant1's good graces ( :- ) )

"More than half of the IMF's borrowers between 1965 and 1995 were no better off than when they started. A third were actually poorer. Almost all were deeper in debt."

Full report at URL below - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 19:58 - ID#288369)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:00 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Things, they are a-changin'

First, the U.S. Dollar Index has run out of gas. With today's reversal, the dollar index has made three successively higher highs with three correspondingly lower stochastic peaks. So while the price has been moving to new highs, there has been less and less buying momentum. It appears to me that the forces that have propelled the dollar index higher have been spent and exhausted. I now look for a very large decline in the dollar index over time.

The rate on the 30-year long bond looks also like it has put in a bottom on the daily chart. We have an entropy bottom where a very sharp decline has been reversed. We should see a rise in rates back above 5.75 in the short-term.

The XAU has put in a bottom on the daily chart only. The weekly chart still have much work to do. By surpassing yesterday's high, I think we have an entropy bottom in the XAU. A rally should be in the works now, but there's no way to get excited until it clears 80 with conviction ( today's close was 68.?? )

Gold has also turned, but on its daily chart only. Again, no way to get excited until it clears 300 with conviction. We should see a rally as it comes up from an oversold bottom.

Silver, too, has made an entropy bottom on its daily chart. It is ready for the next leg up. A gap open tomorrow beginning above 5.22 would render the past four days an island reversal.
On the weekly chart, silver is very oversold and this could be the beginning of something big. The 200-day MA sits at 5.76. We should at least see a test of this.

The daily chart of ABX has been oversold for many, many days. It is turning up now but nothing really significant happens until it crosses 20.5 with conviction ( today's close 17.37 ) . But it is one of the seniors that did not fall below last week's low on yesterday's disaster.

Another stock like this is HM. It actually rose yesterday while the financial world was wilting. And HM put in another good day today. The daily chart looks like it's ready to run for a while.
On the weekly chart, HM has now put in three, count 'em, three successively higher lows since January. This means that its low did not take out the Mar low, which can't be said of many goldstocks. HM looks strong.

Hecla ( HL ) put in a nice reversal day today, by making a lower low and then reversing and closing higher than yesterday. HL looks ready to rally on both daily and weekly charts.

Let's see how far this goes. Some days are better than others.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:07 - ID#45173)
How wrong can I get? Nikkei opens WAY up, stretching back to 15000
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...8:10PM...14892.06...+171.68


(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:10 - ID#298259)
Preacher...just the person I was looking for...
Any opinions on SSRIF? It hit a 52 wk low today and I did not see any negative news out.

Good call on gold today, kept me in NEM past the 2pm-2:30pm wait to see what the shorts do waiting period.

As always...thanks for your "Market Comments".

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:11 - ID#288369)
Word must be out....ship o' gold docking in Tokyo bay!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:11 - ID#43460)
If a bear tries to bite you there's only one sure fire way to stop him.
You grab his windpipe from the inside and make a fist. Then even if he bites your arm off he'll suffocate. Needless to say, only a Norwegian farmer can maintain the icy self control and deadly calm to pull this off. This, BTW is the major reason there are no grizzly bears in south Dakota and one-armed Norwegians are becoming rarer. ( %-^] )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:12 - ID#290172)
Studio.R--Candle and match! Shall we light up?
"Ordinances creating a new currency were issued; the primary unit was the gold yen,
The mint having achieved full operation, the old coinage had to be removed from circulation to provide specie. Rather then buy it with more inconvertible notes, the government asked the well-known and wealthy Mitsui Company to issue notes bearing the names of both MITSUI and the Imperial Treasury. Mitsui bore all the expenses of the issue and was responsible for redemption, but retained 20% of the issue as compensation."


(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:13 - ID#248180)
Honesty - I Love It !
OLD GOLD: Thank you, very well stated. Honesty with the absence of Political Correctness is a GOLDEN TREASURE. I care not who or what the source is.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:13 - ID#222235)
@Sam's is open
but I can't establish a direct connection. If anyone has a chance,

please check this out. Maybe the front door's not open, maybe an ICQ problem. Thanks

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:16 - ID#225273)
Frustrated & SSRIF
I'm long SSRIF myself and am down a good bit. I don't know anything that's up. I'm going to Vancouver tomorrow. I will go to the office Thursday morning and ask them if anything's wrong, that's for sure.

What I really think the problem is; the Vancouver Stock Exchange Index put in another multi-year low today at 530. It has now dropped 100 points so far this year while gold is basically unchanged.
With sentiment so bad out there, a stock this highly priced is under pressure ( notice Francisco Gold lost one dollar today ) . Higher silver prices ahead should bring buyers back into SSRIF.

Thanks for the nice words,

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:17 - ID#341189)
@Old Gold
I was just reading the Kaplan link you provided. Did you notice his statement that gold has continued to rally in any other currency except the US dollar? What could he be thinking? Does he usually make such incorrect generalizations?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:17 - ID#288369)
Lordy,'re good! Quick draw. ;^ ) ~

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:19 - ID#209265)
Bears don't usually bite first, unfortunately . . .
they slash you with their claws, then they bite. Heh, heh, some day I'll have to write down a description of the time we came across a black bear wreaking havoc in a parking lot in BC.

- Steve

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:21 - ID#404189)
See SDRer's 20:12 as a frame of reference as to who MITSUI is, AKA, huge ancient Japanese kiratshu ( trading house ) .

Source was Bill Murphy. He is on the staff of Veneroso & Associates.

Reported in Silicon Investor, in his discussion group entitled DUTCH GOLD SALE, 6:11 EST today.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:28 - ID#342315)
Donald re Brimstone Mining
Your post lead to a call to the co. It sounds serious. They are sending a batch of info + specimens. Should be some news late July. They have 19 different Tellurides! The ore host is a shear zone which is usually better than a vein. The fellow I talked to was Allan Kirk. Very straightforward and knowledgeable. With that many tellurides, I can believe the possibility of good grades. Will let you know when I get the info. Charlie

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:33 - ID#341189)
Thanks for your commentary. I always read it even though I don't understand some of your lingo. What's an entropy bottom? I don't understand your comment on ABX. Its close yesterday was lowest in some time. Why do you think it's turning? It looks to me like it has been pretty much straight down for several weeks.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:33 - ID#255217)
I would like very much to read many of the editorials at the Golden Eagle site, but since earlier in the year it is almost impossible to access the editorial section, or anything else, for that matter. I have the site bookmarketed and make an occasional stab at it, but the selection almost always times out before access. I ASSUME this is due to so many trying to acces all at the same time, but I have tried it at TWO in the A.M., FOUR in the A.M. and every other time I can think of with NO positive results. I don't know the exact reason, but if you would like more people to visit the Golden Eagle site, I suggest you and you colleagues figure out a way to make it more accessable.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:33 - ID#288295)
Mitsui Report
Would someone please post the text of this information from SI? TIA.__________________________________________Oh, BTW.....a most interesting search engine......

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:35 - ID#307271)
The Sacrifice of Certain Jews:
Go Gold and The Golden One:
And because of those early Jews who were beheaded and sawn asunder, we have a hope that is beyond any hopethat is in Christ Jesus: Because of the man of sin who has been revealed in these last days..2Thess2:
who opposes and exalts himself above all that is called God or that is worshiped, so that he sits as God in the temple of God ( the human body ) , showing himself that he is God.
5 Do you not remember that when I was still with you I told you these things?
6 And now you know what is restraining, that he may be revealed in his own time.
7 For the mystery of lawlessness is already at work; only He who now restrains will do so until He is taken out of the way.
8 And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the Lord will consume with the breath of His mouth and destroy with the brightness of His coming.
9 The coming of the lawless one is according to the working of Satan, with all power, signs, and lying wonders ( astrology ) ,
10 and with all unrighteous deception among those who perish, because they did not receive the love of the truth, that they might be saved.
11 And for this reason God will send them strong delusion, that they should believe the lie,
12 that they all may be condemned who did not believe the truth but had pleasure unrighteousness. Go Big Guy!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:36 - ID#426265)
exellent report from preacher
The way preacher is sharing his opinions and observations really made feel good about this site. There are many more like him but i also notice
that some posters use more or less pressure to their opinions and dont tolerate any different predictions as their own and even dare to scold anybody who does not agree with them. Nobody can really predict for sure
what is going to happen with the direction of prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Alan Abelson from Barrons a couple of years ago said that the price of precious metals was for sure going to continue its upward trend but he was wrong. The reason I mention his name is because he is quite an authority. As long as the trend is down of course if you say something negative of anything that is publicly traded one always has
more than 50% chance to be right. At any time though their is always the
possibility of a total turnaround which nobody knows to be for sure but is viewed at as a dead cat bounce. So far if anybody sees it that way, well that is what they think will happen and should be shared as such. I really hope that the pog will make a runup and realize that many posters
share the same desire. Maybe the critics will call us fools but the intrest imo is very worthwhile.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:38 - ID#254311)
Preacher, Arizona Star
Do you have any idea what is going on with Arizona Star. Acting like a falling star for no reason. Your thoughts appreciated.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:38 - ID#288295)
Me too - can't get it at all from my home system. Perhaps too heavy on the graphics?
(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:39 - ID#434108)
Pakistan declares nuclear superiority. (BBC)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:39 - ID#298259)
Look forward to anything you can pass along. I have been following SSRIF for some time now and am looking at re-allocating some of my gold mutual fund holdings to individual stocks. The perfomance of Fidelity Select American Gold and Fidelity Select Precious Metals has been dismal.

Since June 1 FSAGX is down 10.05% and FDPMX is down 13.08% while the XAU is down only 3.37%. After reading Kaplan's comments about gold mutual funds and their current holdings I am beginning to wonder what is going on. I plan to try to contact someone at Fidelity to see what they have to say.

Have a safe trip.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:44 - ID#342376)
From the Veneroso camp...answering a question about Germans wanting more gold backing for Euro
Do not know, but do know the Kohl contingent and public very pro gold. Young, central bank bureaucrats not disposed as such.
Have said this for days now, but gold set up for a really big move up. Maybe $50. Specs as short as they have ever been. Mitsui confirmed today that there is, did not say who, an official sector buyer ( central bank ) . Except for our talk of it no one ( that we can tell ) is noticing or cares. The bears may have a big surprise coming.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:53 - ID#225273)
Adrian & AZS

My opinion is that AZS is also being hit by the Vancouver malaise, on the one hand. Also, not only has gold fallen, but copper has gotten whacked lately, too. These are AZS's only assets. It is very sensitive to the price of the metals.
A runup in gold should get AZS back on track. Remember, although Cerro Casale has its backers and promoters, the lower the price of the metals go, and the more the gold stock malaise sets in, the fewer and fewer people exist who believe that PDG will put it into production, whether that's right or wrong.

I like AZS. Their office is about a block away from SSRIF's. Maybe I'll have to stop by there too.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:53 - ID#210114)
To All: Netiquette Reminder
Argument about Jews and generally insults and rudeness. Please remember your netiguette.

Live Long and Propser ( politely ) .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:54 - ID#26793)
@Steve in TO
Exactly. In a serious bear market you can expect a drop of 80-90%. With Japan starting at 40,000 in early 1990 a drop to below 10,000 leaves plenty of margin for error. Korea, Thailand, Indonesia will see the same. They are already down 50% since last July. As will the U.S., UK, Germany, France once they get started.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:57 - ID#341189)
nice round number
The rupiah is at 15,000 to the dollar tonight.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:59 - ID#230216)
Hatt......not again....
your desperation for this gold to rally is gettting ugly again......I can always tell a guy who sank just a little too much into this gold stuff. You should stay within your means and you won't have to be so mean. Glenn has been here a loooooong time.....since the beginning, and he has graced this forum w/ a GREAT deal of GOOD info. His 'inside' info from the pits is far superior to your shouts of frustration. We know the true idiots at kitco and Glen is not. Stop it. await the very intelligent response


Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:59 - ID#347447)
Amen, Brother, but that aside about lying wonders ( astrology ) cut me to the quick.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:59 - ID#225273)
Carl & ABX
If I'm not mistaken, although yesterday's close for ABX was the lowest in some time, the low from yesterday did not fall below the low on Friday. So I say that it did not take out last week's low. And if my chart is correct, then this is true even though the close was lower than on Friday.

An entropy bottom is formed when the price action of a stock descends at a 87 degree angle for 3 days or more and then reverses and moves above the high of the last day down. Such a move is unsually a sign of exhaustion, even though it looks very powerful.
It is true that ABX has moved almost "straight down" for five weeks or so. That's one reason I think the move has exhausted itself.

Hope that helps.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 20:59 - ID#254311)
Arizona Star

Keep us informed if you do. Much Appreciated.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:00 - ID#253246)
Preacher SSRIF


If you are going to the Silver Standad office ask them if Teck has sold
any of their shares in the last 30 days. Even Dines had posted that
SSRIF was basing at $3.50 and you would think that he knew more
about it than me. I purchased some at that price and have been
licking my wounds ever since.

They have dumped alot of cash into their projects in Russia and the
cost of that silver is several dollars higher that they anticipated 2 years
ago. The Q1 report still shows $6 million on hand.

Tell Quartermain to get off his ace and hire a new PR firm

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:01 - ID#432157)
Discussion of GOLD -Only Please (religion,sex,etc.NO Discussion)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:04 - ID#225273)
Things have gotten so bad in the exploration and development sector that I think the first strong move up in gold will move the producers first, with Vancouver and Alberta lagging. So I don't think SSRIF would be the best stock to move into.

Bema will probably do well. Meridian, Alta Gold, etc.
I hate to say this, but the South African gold stocks will probably be the best place to be for the first shot out of the cannon. So FDPMX, which holds a lot of SA golds, should do pretty well.
I don't know much about your other mutual fund.

Take care,

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:04 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...hopefully, my last post on this subject... speak of Jewish control of the media...

let's examine this notion...

NBC...owned by General Electric...NOT a Jewish controlled company.
CBS...owned by Westinghouse...NOT a Jewish controlled company.
ABC...owned by Disney...largest shareholder...Roy Disney...NOT a Jew.
CNN...owned by Time Warner...largest shareholders....Ted Turner and John Malone...NOT Jews.
CNBC BUSINESS NEWS...owned by General Electric ( see above )
...owned by Microsoft...largest shareholder...Bill Gates...NOT a Jew.

So much for your Jewish controlled Media. Capital ownership determines control...Jewish writers and editors certainly have notable influence but do not control the media.

Although I agree that Jewish capital has far greater influence today than in the 19th century, again so what!

Jewish capital in this country pales against the aggregate capital held by old non-Jewish families such as the Du Ponts, Rockefellers, Mellons, Astors, Kennedys, Carnegies, etc. etc. These families have been able to compound their capital for well over a century. It is old is extremely powerful money and it is QUIET money. Jewish capital accumulation did not come into its stride until after WWII. As such, it was placed under a microscope, unlike the robber baron money of the 19th century ( much of which was not even subject to reporting or taxation ) .

But really, this entire ethnic analysis is a boring exercise and a waste of analytical power.

As a Jew, why do you feel it is incumbent upon yourself to point out the significant influence of Jews in this country? Are Italian-Americans without significant influence? Are Chinese-Americans without significant influence? French-Americans? Russian-Americans? Black-Americans? Hispanic Americans? Etc. Etc.

Are the Jews the only ones running things in America? And the rest of the American public is just standing around applauding and cheering...or condemning?

You state that the Jews have been bad for the POG...yet you also state that the Democratic party is controlled by Jews. Inconsistent statements.


Because the last time the POG took off through the roof, this surge occurred during the Carter years. Carter was a Democrat, n'est-ce pas? So why did the Jewish controlled Democratic party allow the POG to skyrocket back then? Ooops.

In conclusion, Old Gold, as a Jew, you need not bother pointing out that there are "bad" Jews out there with disproportionate influence over America. There are no dearth of hate-mongers out there who will be more than happy to announce that observation to the world. In fact, I can guarantee that if there were not a single Jew in the Clinton administration, there would still be no dearth of hate-mongers who would claim that "the Jews are running the show."

It is a tired old canard that has been around for centuries. It is completely brain dead.

Why do you facilitate its propogation?



(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:08 - ID#393224)
G'morning all
Having the morning cup of java and heard something on CNBC as the reason for gold rise overnight-- to paraphrase---"Gold rose due to Europeans now allowed to buy gold without paying tax" or words to that effect.

Has anyone got the story on this? C'mon super sleuths!!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:08 - ID#225273)
Bufford & SSRIF
I think SSRIF gets plenty of publicity through the Blanchard machine in Louisiana. It's one that Jim Blanchard has been pushing for years.
It's pretty hard to see Quartermain when you go to the office, though. I think it will be all right when silver moves higher.
But for now, I'm with you and wish I hadn't bought it.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:10 - ID#225273)
I'm with you buddy. Probably very few people argue more about race on the internet than me. But I don't do it here. I do it on forums designed to deal with the topic.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:11 - ID#341189)
Thanks. You're quite right about ABX not breaching its last Fri low.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:11 - ID#210114)
Please sing this to the music of Pink Floyd's 'Another Brick in the Wall'.

"Hey Kitco!, Leave those Jews alone!"

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:14 - ID#341189)
Donald was all over it at 18:24

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:14 - ID#307271)
Happy Days
These are wonderful days. The days of bringing gold to the surface and skimming off the dross...the days of massive and super deception...the days that cause mens hearts to faints within them. Who would trade these days for any other? Hang on, the days are just beginning to get interesting.

Obadiah 3

The pride of your heart has deceived you, You who dwell in the clefts of the rock, Whose habitation is high; You who say in your heart, 'Who will bring me down to the ground?'

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:15 - ID#288369)
@T#1............POT to tank.
POT ( price of tequila ) is expected to crash when Mitsui, Ltd. launches the world's first tequila super tanker this summer. The present shortage of the elixer which exists along the eastern US seaboard is expected to evaporate as the first shipment is expected to arrive at a Long Island holding facility. Holders of inventory are encouraged to move their present gallonage quickly through normal channels.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:23 - ID#286249)
Nick@C--Europa Gold--I've the EC report, but it is on the other
computer--I'll post it when I uncover it {:- )

Re: Japanese and gold--This is the Mitsui Group--look at the NAMES

Table 2. The Six Largest Groupings of Japanese Companies
Only main companies are listed )
Unofficial name Presidential conference name.No. of Companies affiliated
#1-- Mitsui Group. Nikikai. 24companies

companies affiliated: Sakura, Mitsui Trust, Mitsui Life Insurance, Taisho Marine & Fire Insurance, Mitsui Products, Mitsukoshi, MITSUI MINING, Mitsui Construction, Sanki Industries, Nippon Flour Mills, Oji Paper Mfg., Mitsui Toatsu, Mitsui Petrochemicals, Toray, Onoda Cement, Nippon Steel, MITSUI METAL MINING, Toshiba, TOYOTA MOTOR, Mitsui Shipbuilding, Mitsui Real Estate, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Mitsui Warehouse.

Source: Koukou Jiyu-Jizai,Gendai Shakai

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:34 - ID#413109)
Farfel F*
Please contact me via Email re visit and other matters.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:35 - ID#245319)
Chesbar (CBI:MTL)

This small, unknown, junior exploration play is about to release some very impressive news, probably tomorrow. Rather than protest too much, check out their site at The NR will say it all and this will be a most interesting success story with Barrick very much involved. ( assay results on 35 holes with high? values surface to depth. for low cost/oz. open pit ) . Closed @ $1.10.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:37 - ID#340302)
@TANTALUS REX...yes, I do believe there is...
...a concerted government effort to control the POG and divert "flight to safety funds" to bonds.

I just do NOT believe it is a Jewish conspiracy.

I do NOT believe it is an ethnic conspiracy of any kind.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:38 - ID#266105)

Frustrated. Fidelity funds. Like you said.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:39 - ID#433172)
Canadian juniors
Everytime I get the yearly report of the companies I have stock in I decide to sell it as soon as possible. All those damm options to the inner circle crowd undercutting the value of the stock....only a fool would buy this crap....did I say that?
Greed led me into it, and the spirit of adventure, I've worked my way out of similar holes, what a situation for a smart investigative reporter.
Looks like a con.. not even a smart one now that I see the picture.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:40 - ID#347457)
Oh my, I am out of here
You guys are beyond any hope. No matter what, you will find something to fight about. Looks like tonight will be about Jews versus the rest. I guess the good topic for tomorrow night may be "born in the USA" versus the rest. I can see some realignment of troops.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:44 - ID#194311)
hmmm I don't care much for english old boys networks either.....
but I never said anything about HATE....F* said the hate word first....

Goldman's UK partners may gain huge tax break--FT

LONDON, June 16 ( Reuters ) - The 34 UK-based partners of U.S.

investment bank Goldman Sachs, which has voted to float on the stock market, could reap a 500 million pound ( $820 million ) tax break on the windfall
gains of their shares, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

The gain would come because of controversial capital gains tax changes introduced by Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown in his March budget, the
FT said.

The potential tax windfall, which would amount to 16 million pounds per UK partner, would benefit Gavyn Davies, the bank's chief economist and a close
adviser to Brown.

The FT quoted a tax accountant as saying that if each UK Goldman partner got shares worth 60 million pounds at negligible cost and sold them for 100
million after 10 years, they would pay 16 million pounds less in tax after Brown's reforms than before.

Brown's reforms included the end of indexation in the calculation of capital gains. Instead, a tapered rate of tax falling from 40 percent to 24 percent over 10
years is to be introduced. The reforms are designed to encourage long-term investment.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:49 - ID#260119)
The next thing that will happen in the U.S. is a rising swell of support for...
PROTECTIONISM.After complaining to the Japanese about it for such a long time the US will try it on for size.Too much money will leave the country for cheap goods over the next 12 months and American workers will get P.O.ed because of more production going elsewhere and the fact that US labour will just not be able to compete. Corps. have no allegence. B.C. will have to eat crow and succumb if he wants to get elected again even if he disagrees with the measures. If the us goes protectionist how can we profit by it?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:51 - ID#396249)
Farfel....watched this all day....let preface this by saying the owner of my radio station is Jewish
I refer to him as the head Rabbi,he is also the producer of my show.......what I think all posts today the Jewish left which is just pure communist from the mother country Russia,and who constitute a majority of Jewish Americans are the real problem,and who do control a vast media machine to push there agenda,orgainizations like the ADL for instance eat thier own,if you don't follow the lefts agenda ......another outspoken talk show host on our station is Dr.Norm Resnick like the station owner he is conservative...and is opposed to the Jewish left.....the ADL calls Dr. Norm Anti-semitic,he is Jewish and my point is its not religion its politics....the name calling is an old communist strategy....even blacks pick up the trick butthats another story

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:51 - ID#298259)
2BR02B? and Preacher...
I just did some checking...and according to the top holding's on Feb 28...both Fidelity Select American Gold and Fidelity Select Precious Metals hold significant positions in Euro Nevada, Franco Nevada and Normandy Mining. Just take a look at the performance of these three stocks over the past 2 weeks - could be the problem.

I emailed the fund manager to see what he had to say. If I receive anything of importance I will post it.

Preacher...I might nibble just a little bit at SSRIF since I have few silver holdings. Thanks again.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:52 - ID#396249)
Farfel....watched this all day.let me preface this by saying the owner of my radio station is Jewish

I refer to him as the head Rabbi,he is also
the producer of my show.......what I think
all posts today the Jewish left
which is just pure communist from the mother
country Russia,and who constitute a majority
of Jewish Americans are the real problem,and
who do control a vast media machine to push
there agenda,orgainizations like the ADL for
instance eat thier own,if you don't follow
the lefts agenda ......another outspoken talk
show host on our station is Dr.Norm Resnick
like the station owner he is
conservative...and is opposed to the Jewish
left.....the ADL calls Dr. Norm
Anti-semitic,he is Jewish and my
point is its not religion its politics....the
name calling is an old communist
strategy....even blacks pick up the trick
butthats another story

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:52 - ID#300202)
Jews r gud-aren't they Jerr???? Away to contemplate the mysteries of life.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 21:57 - ID#341189)
Can you spell hyper-inflation?
Indonesian rupiah now at 15800. 5% in an hour.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:02 - ID#402148)
Maybe the Japanese will try war on for size. What better utlization of their fantastic, somehwat idle, industrial complex. Worked for us in getting out of our depression.

Say aline themselves with Russians as arms co-producers and have the Ruskies tell us to bug off if we try and intervene. The Japanese also have that bond bomb they can lob.

That would throw India and China into alinement, and balkanize the rest of asia as a unit as they are moslem brothers.

Richard Mayberry identifies current wartime prices as per example, $100, oil, $2000 gold, CRB in the 800s, etc. Holders of gold already covered.

Any thoughts on how else the Japanes could "work" themselves out of their hole?


(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:04 - ID#43460)
Nick, I didn't find your news but found another couple of interesting websites!
This is an MSNBC link for foreign market news:

A link to the world gold market quotes:

And a world market page:

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:04 - ID#300202)
@Let's keep this subject going-Gud for healin' eh Retired.
A number of years ago before my dad died ( he was prejudiced but didn't know it ) was making reference to a particular Jew in the area that ran a JEW-ELLERY Store. Dad stated he was a White Jew ( New term to me ) .
Respone-What is a White Jew?????? Answer-"Well-he fought in the 2nd WW"
The tone at the time was-This is the end of the conversation. I guess
that wud also make RETIRED a White Jew.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:08 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
Re Donald's post at 20:54 and related posts by others: I think that the Nikkei falling to 10000 is likely. I said so in the June Skeptical Investor.
An example to bear in mind: the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index is at 257.44, off 85% from its peak ( 1753.73 ) .

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:10 - ID#340302)
@ROBNOEL...I must respectfully disagree with your central thesis...
...certainly there are many Russians Jews who are neither leftists nor communists.

Some of the most successful American Ashkenazics ( that is Jews of Russian or East European heritage ) are Republicans with rightist ideologies.

Yes I do agree that the perspective on gold as a repository of value is derived from an eco-politico basis...however, there is certainly NO unanimous Jewish perspective on the value of gold as a financial asset.

Ergo there is NO Jewish conspiracy pertaining to gold.

I know that much for sure.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:11 - ID#402148)
What does a skeptical investor do in this environment?


(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:11 - ID#43460)
posted without comment except extremely off topic!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:16 - ID#290172)
See--the Vat/Gold issue is NOt a new one...
Case C-432/97
Commission v Germany
Failure by a State to comply with its obligations - Articles 2 and 28a ( 1 ) ( a ) of the Sixth Council Directive ( 77/388/EEC ) of 17 May 1977 on the harmonization of the laws of the Member States relating to turnover taxes - Common systems of value added tax: uniform basis of assessment

( OJ 1977 L 145, p. 1 ) - Exemption of transactions in respect of gold - Gold bars, gold coins ranking as legal tender - Unprocessed gold -
National measure intended to rectify the effects of a transitional measure.

Nick@C.Sorry.this isn't the one you want! After dinner, I'll retrieve the "Bulletin" ( but if memory serves, it is from late last year, early this
year...which means ONE OF OUR PLAYERS is making a move! Leaked stories,etc. etc. {:- )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:18 - ID#287186)
This day's posts from many of us just goes to show
We ain't ready to handle really different sentient beings who possess the intellect to get here but lack the intelligence to not make official first contact with us. We can't get along with each other let alone any of them. It has been said that the only thing people understand is money. But we can not even agree on that - so Gold languishes in vaults rather than being put to use in our pockets. It is time to put this day to bed and maybe wake up early tomorrow with a Golden Glow.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:20 - ID#290172)
Carl (Can you spell hyper-inflation?)
That comes painful close to being 8.2 quake my friend! Very scary.
Probabilities for recovery before close ( or is it closed? )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:22 - ID#307271)
Rabbi Mermelstein
Thanks Gagnrad for the good Rabbi's E-mail address. I think I asked him the question of the hour. Seems eating corn or carrying a .44 cal revolver on Sabbat have something in common afterall.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:22 - ID#317223)
.....stick to it
The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity or financial

instrument. Newcomers should review Kitcos "netiquette" guidelines before posting any messages.

...........and oldies should read that message again, AND STICK TO IT



(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:24 - ID#194311) got my vote on that one....
shall I bolt the door and mine the front path or will you be leaving your call for another day?.....

actually would probably make a lamb roast ( my favourite ) if you really wanted to visit my barrel in the sun.

Whatever goodnight all....humans wherever you are.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:24 - ID#30116)
ACCESS oil trading going ballistic?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:25 - ID#301318)
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Crystal Ball
(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:25 - ID#287367)
@ Bully Beef
I don't think BC can be reelected again. Something about a 2 term limit

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:28 - ID#317193)
Donald & HenryD :)
Donald...a great big smile arrives on my face and remains.

HenryD...nobody that foolish or stupid to claim me as a friend.

Gold is very volatile...spike up and then down. Glen, APH and no doubt RJ are probably correct. Keep your powder dry until gold either breaks $305 or goes to $280-3. Shorting the paper contracts at around spot $297-$300 is not a bad idea. is not real gold, only paper. My time frame is gold back to low $280s before July. If so...the next up will be the real thing. At least that is the thought now. Always subject to change...just like the markets. Yes?

Tol#1...just because you are what you are, thank you!


(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:30 - ID#263184)
What have these irrelevant comments about Jews
got to do with this site or the POG? Ordinarily, I would just ignore it. However, from seemingly bright people come the most foolish of statments that get me to wonder what this is all about. I'm a not religious Jew, but nevertheless take offense from what I have seen here today. Why can't we all get back to what this site is for and stop blaming others for our dissatifactions? The POG will do what it will do and it has nothing to do with Jews or other religions or nationalities. It will rise or fall in response to the actions of people ( whatever their race or creed ) based upon their information at that time. Seeing this type of behavior among otherwise intelligent people indicates to me that we are at an important turning point. Clearly, sentiment is so low that people have to look for a scapegoat for their discontent. Reminds me of what took place in Germany in the 1930's.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:31 - ID#194311)
lady bug.....Kitco is an old gold boys club...
isn't it?
Sorry for the "netiquette droops"....

good night.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:32 - ID#30116)
I guess I'll tune in tomorrow to see if the oil rise sticks and the death watch for gold is still on. Wouldn't it be a kicker if oil decided to fly the coup. Wonder what gold will do if oil goes up. On second thought, I think I'll go to bed and see what disaster awaits me in the financial markets in the morning.

Ah well, wishfull thinking......

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:34 - ID#257136)
Squirrel re: your 02.01 post on ethnicity and whether American

troops will fire on non-rioters, looters, etc.
A moot point!
Remember when ol' b.j. was given the legislation he requested
which would enable him to hire 100,000 Hong Kong Police?

Hong Kong is no longer under the rule of a Western Nation.
Though I agree with you that the American troops may very well
join us ( patriots ) , what do you think all this stuff about U.N.
troops serving all over the world was orchestrated for?

As I remarked to my wife on day two of the Tianenmen Square
massacre "They'll send in some Mongol troops and settle it
Remember what they did?
The Mongol boys do not give a **** about any but themselves and
their appetites.
Very like a lot of our youth today who are not in uniform.

I actually fear that the Elitists and their poster boy have
deliberately designed the much discussed y2k debacle.
What a grand and glorious excuse for declaring Martial Law and
asking the U.N. for help in the form of troops.
Or better yet, hire three or four divisions of Mongols.

They can be called Hong Kong cops to "interdict drugs"etc.
We don't have the slightest idea what is coming into Long Beach
Harbor from now on.
To the average American an Oriental is an Oriental.

We have been conditioned to accept them as people just like us.
By and large they are, with notable exceptions-Mongol troops of the People's Republic of China. ( commie china )
I do accept them as folks, but I fear the Elitist gubmnt sees them as cannon fodder with which
to break the back of any resistance to the plans of the Elitists.
BTW,it's always less expensive to use mercenaries than to try to
train our own people to do the unspeakable!
Before you ROFLYAO, remember the executive orders about which Mozel had so much to say.
If one has read them, one will better appreciate my personal paranoia.

Please someone tell me there is nothing to my thoughts except paranoia!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:34 - ID#432157)

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:36 - ID#266105)

...& thanx.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:37 - ID#396249)
Farfel..I think I failed to make the point,the anti-Jewish sentiment is more a political thing,than

a religious thing,no question just like in the Anglo world there is left,right and those in the middle,like dead skunks on the highway,Israel for instance has always had strong socialist ties,South Africa as well even though they opposed I dislike communist Jews yes just as much as Anglo,Black,Irish,English its a political thing

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:40 - ID#287186)
What constitutes a sentient being?
How shall we know if we meet one or create one?

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:43 - ID#401237)
Japan should PRINT

Tuesday June 16, 9:01 pm Eastern Time

Japan urged to print more money to boost economy

MELBOURNE, June 17 ( Reuters ) - Japan's central bank should crank up its printing presses and massively expand money supply to help reignite its recessionary economy, a senior Canadian economist said on Wednesday.

Royal Bank of Canada chief economist John McCallum admitted his suggestion seemed like ``economic heresy'' but said the task of reflating the world's second-biggest economy was urgent.

``I think printing money is the solution but not to the point of creating massive inflation,'' McCallum told reporters at a trade and investment conference in Australia.

``When you print a lot of money you have a lower yen and if, I think, the yen does not plummet, I don't think people should get alarmed by a lower yen.''

Despite the yen's plunge to nearly 147 yen to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and record low interest rates in Japan, McCallum said more expansive monetary policy was still badly needed.

The additional money would be used help Japan's struggling banking sector to rid their balance sheets of bad debts and ease a credit crunch that is holding back economic recovery, he said.

``If your put more money into the system, you can alleviate that credit cruch,'' McCallum said.

"The banks are in rotten shape," he added.
Print Print Print Print..........and let's print some more! Let us inflate away the problem, it is in the book............GO GOLD!


(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:48 - ID#287186)
a.j. - well if it is all futile anyway - LIVE FREE OR DIE!
Then I guess that I shall during the next winter snowstorm up here
1 ) stand naked at the top of a 1000 ft mountain face
2 ) take a bunch of sedatives and wash them down with a pint of whiskey
3 ) shoot myself in the head
4 ) while making sure I fall off the cliff
If that doesn't blow away my worries nothing will!

Oh yeah - the vultures can have my books, computer equipment, guns, food, ammo, Gold & Silver!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:50 - ID#228128)
T.V. adds promoting gold with a y2k twist
My wife told me that she saw a T.V. add today promoting gold and silver coins and bullion. They were suggesting that John Q. Public stock up on PMs because the y2k bug was going to get them. I don't know what company was doing the promoting but its the first I've heard using y2k fear as a selling point.

Arden: Some little known Griz advice. Never cross ones path from an upslope position. It really pisses them off. Running upslope is their avenue of escape and they feel cut off if someone puts themselves in that position.

Glen: Damn the torpedos. Keep posting your views bear or bull.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:52 - ID#373403)
Cannot ever neglect a Jewish conversation
Conspiracy? Because Goldman-Sachs, an organization of mainly Jews, has provided the current Treasury Secretary?

Is that it? I am a Jew and I never received my invitation into this cabal!

Jews rise because of capital and education accumulation. The ability to save and invest in larger scales is a proven formula for success. Throughout history Jews were welcomed into various European kingdoms because they were the one group able to accumulate capital for the crown.

Their ability to accumulate capital was due to common language with coreligionists in the Diaspora and contacts with family and associates in foreign lands. Jews were sought after and granted special charters to set up communities among the native population. These charter were indeed restrictive with regards to land ownership and available professions. The percieved Jewish conspiracy to dominate the globe was promptly put to the lie each time they were used as scapegoats when economic downturns occurred.

Xenophobia, or the fear of foreigners, is alive and well today in Germany when native Germans must compete for scarce jobs with an influx of political refugees. It is not these foreigners who intituted the socialist policies which make for good but scarce jobs, but they are the focus of anxiety.

So too goes the lot of Jews throughout history. Globalization may indeed be promoted by those Jews in power as borderless living is ingrained in the Jewish experience. Personally, I think globalization is harmful to industrialized nations whose standard of living is averaged with third world standards. The big winners are the upper class who own import companies and factories which can be moved. The losers are the workers. The opiate which allows such a massive transfer of wealth is cheaper consumer prices.

Remember though that globally, Jews number 18 million, or 1/3 of 1%. In the U.S. we number 6 million or 2.3%. While Jews make up 10% of the doctors and 12% of lawyers in the U.S. Protestants and Catholics make up 90% and 88%. Jews in banking, in the U.S., today, is very low compared with the sterotype. This was specifically pointed out in an economics class dealing with banking and the money markets by a very respected professor.

Jews like gold, it is very portable.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:52 - ID#267300)
What does a skeptical investor do in this environment? HB

HopeFull - if your skeptical and conservative stay away from futures contracts or options in Gold or Silver , your safest bet is 1 oz gold bullion coins for delivery, hands on, liquid and anonymous. Price is relatively low, give it two years

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:53 - ID#340302)
@ROBNOEL...again, I am sorry...
...but I must disagree.

The anti-Jewish prejudice transcends religion, economics and politics.

It exists simply because it exists...without any basis or foundation of reality. It is a mindless, historical inevitability...simply because frustrated people need scapegoats and this scapegoat has been around a long, long time. apologies for these digressions that break KITCO netiquette...
I was flamed into this digression by KIWI's earlier post today referring to Rubin and his membersip in some kind of Jew Boy Club.

I have nothing against "political incorrectness." I do have something against the perpetuation of mindless canards.

Once and for all, I am ending discussion of this off-topic matter.



(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:56 - ID#22650)
today's discussion: I have enjoyed it very much as it has provovoked
some very open dialogue about race, which the politically correct element deems improper to discuss, unless it is to disparage anyone who wishes to talk about race and ethnicity as "racist". What has this discussion to do with POG? I look as the common interest of people who are interested in gold as people who are interested in basic value. Gold represents the basic value of money which we use as the base of exchange. Recognitionf of race, ethnicity and religion are cut from the same idea of base values, even much more so than political affiliation. The dialogue here has been a little emotional, but basically civil, certainly not the kind of outright race baiting promulgated by civil rights "leaders" like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson and liberal politicians. Certainly conservative politics falls in this category of race baiting, but the one thing I can appreciate about the conservatives is at least you know where they stand.I believe everyone is racist to a degree, because how can one not favor their own identity over others since they know it best? this is not evil or improper, but I think honest. Respect for one's humanity and all that that respect entails is good enough for me.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:58 - ID#210220)
Solution to fuzzy bears - BAR in at least 300WM, Solution to gold short bears - PM deliveries resulting in SQUEEZE!!!!

(Tue Jun 16 1998 22:59 - ID#287358)

I don't understand why, at the end of your post, you wrote, " even
blacks pick up the trick butthats...". Our prompt-to-disagree F* will
most likely argue that blacks are no more or less likely than are whites
or greens to pick up the trick butthats. I'd prefer that we stay on

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:00 - ID#411112)
Farfel....I agree always a divisive subject,so what say we change it to politics :-)


(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:00 - ID#267300)
Get ready, your going to see much more of that...

The frenzy is just now starting. The ingredients are there.

Gusto Oro
(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:04 - ID#377235)
@ Lady Bug 22:22
But Lady_Bug, we were only trying to understand our feelings about ourselves and each other... --AG

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:12 - ID#227168)
Jewish Thing
Old Gold  Are you really Jewish Listen we need a donation down at the local abattoir to kosher some piglets now that Mike Sheller is back .We all know how Mike has those special Astrological recipes for all the hams at Kitco. Old Gold WHY bring Catholicism into the brewYou know how the priests have travailed the World and helped the poor in every dysfunctional country Shame on you! Kiwi your comments on Jewish boys club is acceptable but please dont mention the Jewish girls club as Dizzy knows they carry big shopping bags and cant balance a cheque book. Welcome back Mike Are you still posting at Vronskys site ---He gets over 300,000 hits a month but nobody seems to be buying Gold Bart still has Mounties for Sale Thank God they are Guaranteed ---Away to check Confucianism

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:13 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
HopeFull: oh!, pretty much the same as I do in ALL environments. First and foremost - protect my capital. Aim to make a steady reasonable return on it ( 10%-12% ) year after year after year. Follow the Chinese philosophy "Quiet contemplation is the best speed". One does not move forward quickly, but makes few mistakes and is likely to come out ahead in the end.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:16 - ID#396249) calling is an old communist ploy/trick whatever you like to call it,it is used to

.vilify anyone opposed to the communist agenda,read Marx.....Blacks to have learned this by the constant use of vilify conservatives....Jasper Texas case in point.....Jesse Jackson refered to white Christian conservatives as some may not like to talk about this subject I have no problem with that,however when it takes place like in Jasper I do,its my job

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:16 - ID#307271)
The Crucible
For we could talk of many things; gold, silver, but eternal life and things pertaining thereto draw all into the frey.

You see, brother, how many myriads of Jews there are who have believed, and they are all zealous for the law;

For Jews request a sign, and non-Jews seek after wisdom;

but we preach Christ crucified, to the Jews a stumbling block and to the non-Jews foolishness,

but to those who are called, both Jews and non-Jews, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:18 - ID#223391)
I will borrow my son't Pink Floyd "The Wall" tape and see if I can get it down. Yessir.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:19 - ID#220325)
APH--In case no one has mentioned it.
Thanks for keeping us posted on the pm's on a regular basis. You are a good friend to Kitco.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:24 - ID#215379)
Print more
Printing more money, as everyone here knows, is like pouring gas on a fire. It will only make the yen worth-less. Japan needs more credibility not less. Make it credit worthy, back it with Gold.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:26 - ID#45173)
robnoel: How about we go back over the topic of guns again?
Naaaaah. Bully Beef brought up the topic of the day: protectionism. themissinglink got it right, the benefactors of free trade have not been the working class. Owners of multinationals enjoy the benefits of profits wherever they're generated, while the working folks get cheap TVs. What's the alternative? What might a protectionist US be like. France? Yuuuuuuck.

Whatever happened to the "giant sucking sound" we're supposed to be hearing from Canada and Mexico because of NAFTA? The only sucking sound I hear is Perot, sucking wind.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:27 - ID#263379)
@ SSC and most Gold shares rose today
So why did Kitco degenerate into a morass of anti semitism ?? Too many past banker conspiracy theories herte no doubt. The tide is turning, Kitcoites outghta be glad, yes?

Kinda sorry I logged on... maybe tomorrow will be a better day. Posts on interesting PM related Numismatic news to follow later this week. Good evening.......

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:31 - ID#263379)
@ EJ...Perot's sucking sound
An amen to you before I go, free trade is the hallmark of free nations. Some jobs went south, but we've created far more than we lost in the time we hear daily how the main problem is TOO MANY jobs, too low unemployment, too heated an economy, and wage pressures leading to inflation!

Perot was the most frighteningly insane candidate to run in a long time, even if he was a change from the "mainstream"... Can you imagine that megalomaniac with his finger on the nuclear trigger.... ( Buurrrrrr..goosebump thing )

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:32 - ID#223391)
@World bank now says Asia entering depression.
Here's Yahoo, for the whole shebang. It's a shorter URL.

Well, Donald. What's next? Wish I could see what you see just for one day.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:36 - ID#307271)
Liberty Re: Perot
I wrote a letter just after the Presiential election that went something like this: "Congrats Elf-Man. You have single-handedly done what no other human being on earth could have done--You put Slick Willy in the Whitehouse Two Times in a row !

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:36 - ID#202123)
Pagada, I like your post
What has been written here tonight is very precious because we have the freedom to exchange our thoughts/ideas, and expertise.

And if the words seem to be off the subject, consider that PM is an emotional issue, and while it's best to stick with metals in a narrow sense, the emotions will come out at times.

My own thoughts ( not tied in with Pagada ) is that there is too much PC involved with everything that people say.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:41 - ID#396249)
EJ,Last nite I posted a official report which documents a something I've been saying for a long time

$20 Saints in MS 60 not only have out performed bullion,but has risen 58% since one paid attention......not that I mind I just try to for Nafta,you are dead wrong and so are a lot of kids thanks to the explosion of drugs across the border

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:45 - ID#27341)
Humans,oh dear,get a gun, you will need it.

(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:46 - ID#396249)
EJ 98 should read 97,its getting late


(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:46 - ID#45173)
In the order of precedence of human drives, one seeks:
1 ) Food and shelter
2 ) Sex
3 ) To censor opinions one disagrees with

One could argue that #3 comes before #2.

I don't like what the man says, but I like that he can say it. I just skip over the stuff I don't want to read.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:54 - ID#45173)
robnoel: I agree 100%. Bought some St. Gaudens about a year ago
and now wish I'd bought more. Heard a theory from a dealer this May that they go up in price disproportionately because Europeans like 'em and hoard them over all others, limiting supply. You heard that?

My Uncle and sister live on different parts of that Mexican boarder ( Texas and S. CA ) , neither are what you'd call liberals, especially my Texan Uncle, and they say NAFTA has done nothing but help the region economically and export lousy, low-paying jobs to Mexico. Perot is a dimwit and NAFTA is one of the few things that Clinton has done that I respect. He actually stood up for something he believed in and knew he was right about.


(Tue Jun 16 1998 23:57 - ID#317193)
robnoel...we got it...
Ms 60's bought in January...yes I understand supply and demand for REAL gold. Paper is not real gold? I think most here got that one too. Thanks for the view of the real world. Nite, nice people, it doesn't much.: )