Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:03 - ID#227168)
Let's get it on
While evolution will eventually bring about the dreaded amalgamation of races and blend mankind into one great brotherhood, there is also the path of Initiation for whosoever will .Any individual in whatever race body he may be functioning, may attain the consciousness of the coming age, taking Heaven by storm. In Matthew 11: 12 we read From the days of John the Baptist until now the kingdom of heaven suffereth violence and the violent take it by force. The violent ones spoken of by Christ are pioneers ---Souls who have become self-conscious and have risen above tribal and national customs.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:05 - ID#373403)
EJ(What is the alternative)
Before globalization, we were doing quite well in the U.S. establishing our economy as #1. Exporting exportable jobs we agree lowers wages for the working class. The aggregate numbers hide this as executive and shareholder compensation increases for the multinationals. The preservation of the middle class is not a monetary policy objective and hardly more than a campaign promise when it comes to fiscal and trade policy.

Of course lower wages for the working class has been offset by lower cost of living as consumer prices fall. So what is the problem you ask?

Wages will be hardpressed to rise in the future but living expenses will rise on several fronts. The dollar will not be forever strong so import prices will rise. Commodity prices will rise eventually. Capital inflows and capital investment which make for high productivity will not last forever. Interst rates will rise in the future. The debt must be paid someday taking a bigger chunk of working Americas paycheck.

Globalization if not stopped will drive down the wage of a U.S. autoworker form $30/hr to $15/hr and raise the wage of an Indonesian autoworker from $1/day to $15/hr. While the American autoworker is getting screwed, he can purchase an automobile cheaper. UNTIL THE DAY WHEN EACH WORKER MAKES $15/HR!

At this point, is he better off? His wage will rise in lockstep with the Indonesians wage. Prices of cars will also rise for each worker. One problem is that the Indonesian does not pay taxes in the U.S. or spend money here. Because the U.S. is a more developed economy we consume more than Indonesians and will send out dollars, so there is a net loss. This amounts to global communism when there is no longer competitive or situational advantage.

Why should the American not have the advantage of living in the more economically powerful country just the same as capitalism treats different individuals differently?

Ultimately, wealth gets transferred from the worker to the investor in a one time drop in wages and prices. Prices will recover, wages will not.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:05 - ID#396249) can not justify economic gain by social decline,the biggest winners have been drug dealers,

I do not think you will find many Mexicans that applaude Nafta.....I hope you are not forgetting the price they paid a 50% currency devaluation....high interest rates....for someoone to win someone has to lose

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:06 - ID#45173)
G'Nite all
Can't watch the Japanese traders careening around on the Nikkei tonight and won't even hazard a guess as to where they're headed, got to hit the hay early. This kind of volatility usually presages a real crash, tho, possibly as soon as the end of this week. Eventually investors and traders get exhausted and "throw themselves off the precipice for fear of falling."



(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:08 - ID#286250)
Studio.R (Expect you've lost all interest, this took so long!)
And--this is just the first of a series, in a six-year approval marathon, which is quite typical {:- (


Sixth Council Directive 77/388/EEC of 17 May 1977 on the harmonization of the laws of the Member States relating to turnover taxes - Common system of value-added tax: uniform basis of assessment. On 25 June 1997 the Commission presented a proposal for a D ...

On 27 October 1992, the Commission presented a proposal for a Directive supplementing the common system of value-added tax and amending Directive 77/388/EEC - Special scheme for gold ( COM ( 92 ) 441 final - Official Journal C 302, 19.11.1992 ) .

This proposal is aimed at introducing a zero rate of VAT for investment gold [i.e., System gold, SDRer]

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:09 - ID#45173)
themissinglink and robnoel: thx for your posts. I'd like to pick it
up from here tomorrow. G'Nite.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:10 - ID#286230)
Barrick a BRE-X Victim

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:16 - ID#411163)
EJ-Clinton and NAFTA
Clinton voted for NAFTA after the Republicans forced him. Ne went kicking and screaming.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:16 - ID#411163)
EJ-Clinton and NAFTA
Clinton voted for NAFTA after the Republicans forced him. Ne went kicking and screaming.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:17 - ID#373403)
Perot(I voted for him twice and I would do it again)
Say what you will but he was the ONLY one talking about the deficit and debt. He focused public attention on this OUTRAGEOUS intergenerational THEFT where there was no interest. His 7% made the "mainstream" take note and Bill Clinton did the job. I believe Perot was instramental in getting Bill to take on this problem.

Besides if Perot put Bill in office, he kept Dull Dole out. What can be more exciting than electing a president and then spending the next eight years torturing him?

Spud Master
(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:18 - ID#288235)
@Liberty aka LGB aka "It's rocket science..."
Perot, despite your envious remarks, debates logically and plainly... one reason the Wiberalwals are scared silly of him in a debate: he reaches the common man with no-nonsense straight talk.

Bill Clinton couldn't argue in a moderated debate to save his life - the judges would disqualify nearly sentence as ad hominem, poisoning the well or emotional manipulation.

Perot, btw, would surround himself with smart American patriots - not ass-kissing sycophants to cover-up one's treason, adultery and lechery.

en garde ... oh, and "GO GOLD!"


Spud Master
(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:26 - ID#288235)
Clinton fought NAFTA kicking and screaming?

LOL! The crawling cronie of cronies? The Sultan of Scam? The Commander in Brief? If it has money wrapped around it, do you really doubt our dog wouldn't fawn and whine and roll over for the right Indonesian or Chinese Mainland Thug-lord?

Bill Clinton craves the "Tobacco Bill" for the tax dollars it will bring he and his craven cohorts - not one penny will every reach the great moronic masses of cigarette dope heads.

Typical Bill Clinton technique ( or bar one-liner ) : "Hey, it's for the CHILDREN" ( add a great big Bill Clinton sincere grin, or maybe a tear ala the one's manufactured on the spot for the cameras that caught him laughing at Ron Brown's funeral ) .

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:27 - ID#287358)
Dude, lighten up...

Robnoel, sorry, I didn't realize you were so focussed on your subject.
I guess my attempt at subtle humor whizzed on past you. I was *only*
referring to "trick butthats." I don't enjoy this discussion site when I
see so much anger, so I tried to lighten up the scene a bit. Apologies.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:27 - ID#170211)
I post a little & lurk a lot, but...
the drivel tonight re Judaism just stinks. And I promised I would only talk about gold here, too.
Here's what I think. There are a few including Preacher, Silverbaron and others ( we all know who you are ) , who are technical, informed, and to the point.
And then there are those who use cute little *'s by their names. Andyou know who you are, too. Why can't you just keep it on the subject? Ever hear of K.I.S.S.? Or Clear, Complete & Concise? Probably not, because you just go on and on and on...
Why don't we all just ignore you and not respond to any more of your posts, whether they are artful, factual or otherwise? Seems like you and others want some attention which you were obviously deprived of as chillun, or maybe you have a boss who ignores you. ( Hmmm. Wonder why? )
'Nuff said.

And on the subject of grizzlies and Ed Dames: I've met them both. Ed and Joanie I consider friends, and Ed and I have climbed some mountains in NM together and swigged a few beers. He's sincere and if you've never taken his course, don't disparage his findings. I've taken it, it's awesome, and I've learned a little about what/when the POG is up to.

As for those bears, my close encounter with Ursus horribilis was a logn time ago and as clear as this moment. Paced off at 42 feet above timberline, but I'm talking about it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:37 - ID#373403)
Speaking of Tobbaco legislation
Isn't this just smokers funding their own cancer insurance? Sounds good to me if the money stays to pay medical bills. This was the fundamental reasoning but I think the money is being spent elsewhere. Maybe we could tax alcohol to pay for all the drinking related illness of the welfare class.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:44 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

FSAGX HOLDS at it's previous January Low.
Time to scale UP?????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:49 - ID#396249)
ChasAbar.....smiley face is a good sign of humour:-) otherwise draw your sword/themissinglink so you

are supporting the biggest tax increase on the poor in US history and tranfering this wealth to greedy lawyers and politicians,today they come for something I like,tomorrow they will come for something you like............

(Wed Jun 17 1998 00:56 - ID#396249)
Darn should have got spellcheck missedthe s and e


(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:00 - ID#187109)
*I like Perot too*
He would have shaken things up. We ( US ) needs more businessmen/women and less yes-men/women politicians......... I would vote for him again and again and again and again.

btw.....I am not Jewish but I am guess you all didn't really need to know ( red faced ) .........

go gold? live w/o smegma


(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:01 - ID#373403)
How can I leave with you challenging me like that: )

Yes I support the largest tax increase ever on the poor. Their choice to smoke coupled with being poor is a drain on my checkbook as I fund medicaid. In economics we always must internalize the externalities. In this case taxing those who draw upon society for something completely in their control, i.e. smoking related illness, is completely appropriate.

I would also approve of an extra tax for those living in areas constantly using up FEMA money. Why should I, in the Midwest, pay more than those in Florida always getting hit with hurricanes. A federal tax on those living within a mile of the east coast and a tax on those living near fault lines.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:04 - ID#263379)
@ Spud Master....... Granny's in the basement dude
Spud you said... "Perot, btw, would surround himself with smart American patriots - not ass-kissing sycophants"

By this you must mean his VP candidate, you know, the guy who said "Why am I here" and proceeded to get destroyed in debate because indeed, the guy had NO IDEA why he was there!

If you had studied anything about your candidates past, you would have found that far from surrounding himself with real men, Perot would brook NO ONE in a subordinate position who wasn't a YES MAN ASS KISSING DO NOTHING.

Perot was a total joke , once he was clearly exposed as the psychotic fraud that was the heart of his true nature. You'd best study his history as a CEO, ( or even just a handful of his increasingly stupid campaign statements ) before you give him accolades.

Incidentally, let's not forget that Perot is the consummate QUITTER, and yellow bellied coward who backed out when the going got tough. GREAT presidential material all right.

The sleaze Clinton, is an embarrasment to the office. The fraud, sleaze, lying, psycho, Perot, would have been a worse embarrasment. Such is the state of American presidential politics today.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:07 - ID#373403)
There can be no greater embarrassment!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:12 - ID#263379)
@'re quite correct
I completely agree with you Zeke. Perot operated simply as a "spoiler" who managed to get Clitton elected because of his ( Perot's ) single minded haterd of George Bush. ( WHom he claimed had tried to ruin his daughter's wedding and all kinds of other nefarious "dirty tricks" ...Gawwwd, what a self obsessed nutcase the guy is! )

Perot was simply the "Billioniaire with a bad haircut" ...Yelloe bellied quitter whom we can now thank for 2 Democratic administrations of Clitton and his cronies. When's election time/ Where's my voting pad? I hope Gore get's gored big time!

( Psssst, Ross baby, Them Republicans Iz puttin "Men in black" in yer basement and buggin yer phone dude... )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:13 - ID#343259)
Thanks for DOW urls to all.
Thanks for DOW urls to all.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:14 - ID#263379)
@ Academy Awards
Winner of closest call to a Fascist dictater for U.S. this century.

ROSS PEROT ( Yeaahhhhhh applause.... )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:18 - ID#263379)
@ Loral, China....Satellites R Us
I'll be following this one like a Hawk...and am gratified to see the "politics" will supposedly be left out of it. If this in fact becomes the case, Loral will be exonorated in spades. Does this mean Clinton isn't a sleaze? No.....

Tuesday June 16, 9:41 pm Eastern Time

Leaders see cooperative U.S. House satellite probe

By John Whitesides

WASHINGTON, June 16 ( Reuters ) - The leaders of a House of Representatives inquiry into questions about the launches of U.S. satellites on Chinese rockets pledged on Tuesday to avoid the political infighting that has plagued recent House probes.

``This will not be political theater, but a sober and serious consideration of alleged threats to national security,'' said Rep. Christopher Cox, a California Republican chosen to head the select committee looking into the issue.

Rep. Norman Dicks of Washington, the senior committee Democrat, vowed political gamesmanship would not interfere with the panel's probe into whether national security was breached during U.S. satellite launches on Chinese Long March rockets.

``I will do everything I can to cooperate with Mr. Cox and our side will do everything it can to get to the truth,'' said Dicks, who met with Cox several times over the last few days to work out the ground rules for the investigative committee.

``I think we need to keep partisanship out of it,'' Dicks told a House committee.

The House Rules Committee on Tuesday approved on a voice vote a resolution creating the select panel and setting out the parameters of its inquiry, with the full House expected to vote Thursday. Cox said the committee might hold its first organizational meeting as early as Thursday night.

The Senate has already begun its probe of the issue, spearheaded by the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Investigators will look specifically at whether Loral Space & Communications Ltd ( LOR - news ) gave China data that could improve the accuracy of its missiles after a failed 1996 satellite launch, and why U.S. President Bill Clinton approved a sanctions waiver earlier this year allowing Loral to launch another satellite on a Chinese rocket

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:18 - ID#373403)
I do not see why everyone assumes Perot stole votes from Dole. I would have vote for Clinton cause I am kinda liberal.

Speaking of psycho, isn't Clinton a little psychopathic in his innability to tell the truth and stay with the parameters of society and for his endless ability to compartmentalize?

Maybe it seems worse when you are evaluating the political opposition but Clinton seem far from mentally stable. I doubt he has a core set of beliefs. I think everything is relative for him and subject to focus group.

And on the subject of politicians who do not seem mentally all there, Dan Quayle....?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:25 - ID#396249) least you honest,however you are assuming that 1)smoking causes as much damage

as they say,ever cancer death is blamed on smoking...I question those who scream the loudest .ie BC 3000 kids start smoking a day of which a thousand will die...please prove this....its have been watching to much CNN.....just like thier story on Sarin gas in Vietnam pure BS yeah sure they have a lt of credit

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:26 - ID#263379)
@ Missing Link.... I say Potatoe and you say Potahhtoe
I agree with most of what you say, Qyale was indeed a dolt and an airhead, and not worthy of Prez or vice Prez candidacy, and of course Clinton is indeed a sociopath when it comes to his ability to lie, cheat, steal, commit numerous acts of adultery ( and I don't mean just sexual ) etc etc ....

But at least he's not certifiably insane with paranoid psychosis......which...unfortunately, Perot demonstrated himself to be.

Then we have Perot's absolute abdication of all he supposedly stood for because the "Republican dirty tricks" were just too tough for the little Meglomaniac to tale, and the way he stomped all over his subordinates, not realizing that he didn't wield the AX of absolute power that he had in his company's...where he was THOROUGHLY despised by all his subordinates.

Come come now, I too was taken in by Perot as first, his talk of fiscal responsibility, and breaking new and fresh ground...but I don't need a pscho, fascist, dictatotorial, ( and as it turns out, yellow bellied ) fruitcake ...leading this nation no matter HOW good the initial pitch may have been. Remember, we do still have nukes....

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:30 - ID#187109)
*those seasonals are hot*
Cherokazikeeeee! Where are ya smoke-screen-dude? How did ya like the ( small ) move in bean meal today? One of my seasonals called it perfect! ( I posted it here too ) .....and they said buy beans today on the 17th too. They missed that by a day. I am still rather skeptical 'bout those beanie-weenies though. But by god the move could be quick and furious............ALL ABOARD!!!!! Toot! Toot! Stop by the Sugar Depot on the way out of town................yipeeeeeeee!!

c'mon Earl.....quit yer grumbling and join too Crystal Balls...............ohmy! I can't wait for the CRB......I got things to do people to see........Perot to vote for..........LGB to make his running mate!!

Oh tis a great time to be alive.....where is that damn TeddO!???!? Get yer kicked-out-of-catholic-school-boy-ass back here.....pronto!! At least let Willy back on line for updates. Did ya get those ( tomato ( e ) ) seeds I sent ya?? They will be reeeeeaaaaal gooood....uh huh. 'bout it.....I know yer just itchin' to climb aboard with Perot..........hop on the hoppity-horse doooood ( ! ) You just throw up that smoke screen trying to play hard to get........uh huh.

Perot in 2000!! He'll fix that 'where is Kay' thingy single handed like. Great sucking sounds abound............ build the cabinet ( not kitchen ) ........


(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:37 - ID#263379)
@ EB...Runnin with Perot
I don't know about runnin with Perot EB..after all, I've been called Megelomaniac ( and worse ) but never full blown psychotic paranoid! ( Nor quitter/coward either for that matter )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:39 - ID#263379)
@ EB..... Ross & I
Besides, there's an incompatibility between Ross and I. I kinda like the worlds Oceans and ecosystems, and I'm not into blowing up protected reefs in order to get my boat in and out of my private villa 30 seconds quicker!

( What island was it he did that/ Bermuda I think? Wehere the reefs are already in big trouble and danger of dying off completely..... )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:42 - ID#263379)
@ EB..... sympathy for Ross
However, I must admit that I have SOME sympathy for Ross's mental instabilities...after all.....since he claims Republicans were beaming Rays at his brain all the time, it musta scrambled thinks upstairs for him a bit!

( I wonder if he'd have taken care of those alien cover up things though, I bet he woulda got to the bottom of all them Goviement conspirator MIB dude! )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:43 - ID#433172)
Seems to me you have a good handle on the situation regarding race, ethnicity etc. Looks to me like a hopeless situation, maybe something else will draw our attention before it bears the bitter fruit.

Anyway, that's exactly what I was driving at. Not an easy fix.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:45 - ID#263379)
@ EB....OKOK, I'll vote for Ross
But ONLY if he promises that once elected, he'll get a decent haircut, and take plenty of "Midol" around his time of month!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:49 - ID#65118)
@Liberty. perot is neither, he is a politician!..........well sort of.... :-))

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:51 - ID#210235)
@Click on

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:52 - ID#210235)
@Why didn't that work?
Below, click on "When all else fails".

(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:57 - ID#252197)
let it be now
Poorboys ( 00:03 ) : Very profound! I can't think of

a better solution for this worldly society of


(Wed Jun 17 1998 01:59 - ID#263379)
@ Bill Gates for President....Buy Gold
This just in.....Bill Gates has purcahsed the U.S. Government, ended the justice dept. probe of Microsoft & Intel, and declared that all foreign and domestic governments must tithe 30% of their income to the new "Computing into the 21st Century" party, that he, Bill Gates, is founder and president of.

All who dare defy Bill, will be cut off from electronic payment transfers, and can henceforth buy, sell or trade, using only Gold or Silver coins. Buy Gold......

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:06 - ID#340344)
Waiting for Perot...
Regardless whether you like his politics, you have to
admit that he is getting a little long in the ear.

He has taken to spinning his head around fast while
saying, "whazzat?" each time he cinches up his belt.
Gotta keep those ears in motion so they don't get caught.
...smiley face with thanks:- ) to Robnoel.......................

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:07 - ID#208151)
Amazon Loonies
With the continuation of Rubin's shell game and Cohen's jawboning, one shouldn't be too surprised to see this market surpass prior highs. The internet stocks lead the way both today and yesterday and have been representative of this market's bloated valuations. One of particular interest is Amazon, the internet bookstore, which has increased 60% in the past six days. This is a stock that has yet to post positive earnings and has a price to book value of 180 ( S&P with a PE of 29.25 "only" has a 7.01 price to book ) . Even more astounding is the current $3.64 BILLION capitalization of Amazon. Until the market top, the loonies will continue to control the asylum, and rational thought will only remain with the goldbugs.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:13 - ID#257148)
Everybody wants to rule the world. OK?
Liberty 1:59

This country has performed an illegal operation, and will be shut down talk to your maker."

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:16 - ID#187109)
blowing the reefer??
Hmmmmmmm.....and you never inhaled.

anyway, I think he got that idea from the USN in SD. Don't they have the reefs/jetties wired to blow should they need to have massive/quick deployment of the ships? I read that or heard it from one of my swabby buddies. Anyone care to shine any light on that one? oh yeah...... go gold. shine a ray gun on Dan Quayl ( e ) to unscramble his noodles..........


(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:25 - ID#240266)
How is it that healthcare in America is so expensive to
deliver as opposed to say Canada.Your pay as you use philosophy
ain't keeping the cost down;as a matter of fact with a system of
socialized medicine you could pay less and still recieve the same
coverage as you do now...sounds like a commercial doesn't it.
Happy Trading!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:28 - ID#187109)
before I go night-nights......
'ello Salty. 'ows it gowin? the brew is lookin good and smelling better.......I racked it to the second carboy this time.....and the fermenting stopped. Hmmmmm... I will take a reading and bottle this weekend........mmmmmmmmmmm good.

Has anyone looked at Plat 2-nite? I wonder if the rise will stay intact when I awaken? dream of platinum-plums-dancing-on-my-in-my........ ( ? ) I forgot that whats a 300square?? you got too caught up in that can-o-worms you opened earlier to answer.........please.....back on


(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:35 - ID#257148)
beery beery nice
Well done, grasshopper. We'll make a master brewer out of you yet. Now is the time to have another look at the Question of hardness of water, and the recipe for Burton Bitter.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 02:47 - ID#257148)
squirrel, introducing "the hanging metaphor"
great post at 18:22, skwirl, or, in local NZ idiom:

"Cool as."

(Wed Jun 17 1998 03:06 - ID#316404)
@ Gold Report
Almost forgot, in all my excitement over a potential Perot candidacy in Y2K. Gold report for today, did I not say last week.. ( and the week before that )

The Goose Drank Wine


Hmmm, Gold went up a percent today ( and silver 2%, yeah! ) , yet...the DOW recovered today as well! Could it be that the DOW and Gold no longer flow in different directions??

(Wed Jun 17 1998 03:09 - ID#316404)
@ Windy...socialized medicine
Yeah, inexpensive and decent coverage..just one bitty probl;em, you wait so long for important procedures and sugery's that you die waiting!! ( I hear from my cardiologist, that tons o'anadians flock to the U.S. to have cario treatments and surgeries on their own nickel, cause they'll die waitin if they try and get it done at home )

Pass me a Moosehead eh?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 03:49 - ID#340302)
June 17, 1998

China Warns It May Devalue Its Currency


HONG KONG -- As if the falling yen were not causing enough heartache in Asia, investors here and abroad are now fretting about another potential crisis: the devaluation of the Chinese currency.

China's finance minister issued a pointed warning Tuesday that the Asian crisis could destabilize its currency. China has so far refused to devalue the yuan, which is also called the renminbi, even after a tide of devaluations swept through Asia last fall. But there were new signs Tuesday that the persistent weakness in the Japanese yen was sorely testing Beijing's resolve.

The finance minister, Xiang Huaicheng, said in an article Tuesday in The People's Daily, the Communist Party newspaper, that China's struggle to meet its economic growth target could "increase pressure on the stability of the renminbi." Later in the day, China called on Japan to show the "courage and wisdom" to halt the yen's slide.

Tuesday's statements were the latest in a chorus of complaints by Chinese officials about the declining value of the yen. And they have kindled fears throughout Asia that Beijing could be laying the groundwork for a devaluation of its own. "When so many Chinese officials come out, they mean business," said Guonan Ma, co-head of economic research at Salomon Smith Barney in Hong Kong, "If the yen continues to fall, they will reach a breaking point."

To be sure, most analysts still doubt that China plans to devalue its currency in the short term. It is more insulated than other Asian countries from the pressures of the global marketplace. With President Clinton scheduled to arrive next week, China also has compelling political reasons not to tamper with its currency.

Still, the sheer number of statements by Chinese officials has made investors nervous. The growth rate of China's economy is slowing, exports are declining, and as the yen drops, pressure increases to devalue the yuan. Some analysts think that a Chinese devaluation would kick off a new wave of tit-for-tat devaluations around the region -- leaving Asia's currencies in tatters and its economies in an even more precarious state.

"An ill-considered devaluation could start another round of instability," said Miron Mushkat, director of strategy at Indocam Asia Asset Management in Hong Kong.
"China's devaluation would push us back to square one."

The renewed fears of a Chinese devaluation came on a day when Asia's financial markets zigzagged sharply in the yen's wake. After plunging on Monday to some of their deepest lows in years, stocks rebounded Tuesday morning when the yen briefly strengthened against the United States dollar. When it retreated Tuesday afternoon, shares also dropped. At the end of the trading session, most of the markets were down, though Hong Kong gained seven-eighths of 1 percent.

The yen, after seesawing on rumors of Japanese government intervention, traded at 144.56 to the U.S. dollar late in the day here. ( It settled later in New York at 143.47, an improvement from 146.15 late Monday. )

The Chinese yuan was unchanged at 8.2798 to the dollar, but only after China's central bank intervened to support it. China also lowered interest rates for dollar-denominated deposits, a step that could foreshadow a general cut in interest rates.

That would be welcomed by Chinese companies, which are battling the now-familiar Asian affliction of slackening domestic demand, tight credit and dwindling exports. But despite the persistent rumors, it is far from certain that a devaluation would be a tonic for China's mixture of economic problems.

In fact, several economists contend that it could hurt. For one, it would seriously erode confidence in Hong Kong, which has been struggling to shore up its own currency in recent days. Although the Hong Kong dollar is linked to the American dollar, it is psychologically supported by China, since last July the sovereign authority.

For all the complaints about the yen's value, it is also not clear that it affects China all that much, at least not at current levels. China and Japan have few overlapping export industries -- unlike, say, Japan and South Korea. "People are making a link between the yen and the yuan, but there is actually very little link," said Dong Tao, a senior regional economist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

He noted that China actually benefited from a slumping yen in one respect. Beijing has an estimated $40 billion in foreign debt denominated in yen. As the yen depreciates against the dollar, China's debt burden lightens.

Of course, a weak yen hurts China insofar as it pulls the rest of Asia into a deeper economic mire. Asian markets, including Japan's, account for 43 percent of China's exports. And those countries are buying fewer Chinese-made textiles, farm products, toys or low-cost electronics. After increasing 20 percent last year, China's exports declined by an estimated 1.5 percent in May.

The decline in exports will make it difficult for China to meet its goal of 8 percent economic growth in 1998. Most economists now expect Chinese output to grow 6 percent to 7 percent this year. The slowing growth means mushrooming unemployment, and with it, the possibility of social unrest. Some analysts said this could eventually force Beijing's hand.

A key difference between China and most other Asian countries is that its currency is not fully convertible and is therefore not vulnerable to speculative attacks. Unlike many of its Asian neighbors, China is also running a comfortable trade surplus and has $140 billion in foreign reserves.

For China, whether to devalue its currency is in part a political decision, according to some analysts. By maintaining a stable currency, Beijing has become an island of calm in the Asian economic storm. Mushkat of Indocam said China had inherited the mantle of economic leadership from a troubled Japan.

Indeed, he said the noises coming from Beijing were the sign of a rising economic power beginning to flex its muscles. "It's not so much laying the groundwork but keeping their options open," he said. "China is playing the game, while Japan doesn't even understand what the game is."

(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:11 - ID#393224)
Big(smart) Au companies are buying cheap assets.
Amazing what you can find on the net. In my daily detective work yesterday I came across an Aussie stock exchange announcement about Laverton Gold ( LVG ) --in which I have a pecuniary interest. It seems a company named Weston Investments, which is a subsidiary of Consolidated African Mines Ltd. ( CAM ) ( 7th biggest? ) has just bought 50% of LVG's Contracts of Work covering 2140 sq. km. in Sumatra for $13.8 million. LVG has the Rawas mine producing @100 000oz gold equivalent/annum. A bit of snooping around shows that one of South Africa's largest Au companies is buying up ground at bargain basement prices. CAM has also agreed to spend $12.5 m. over the next three years exploring the area.

Now any sensible person would think that such a good announcement for a struggling little Aussie gold company would get some press. I have been looking. Not a word!!

I talked to the management of the company a couple of weeks ago. They have got every base covered. They have bought back their forward sales, thus will profit hugely on a price rise. They have bought 200K worth of 290 put options, thus are covered on the downside. They have got a big SA company paying to explore their highly prospective ground. They are in a rural area and are away from the urban Indonesian problems. Their labor costs are down dramatically with the Rupiah. They will receive a huge sum to reduce their debt.

CAM are not idiots. They are buying ongoing US$$ paying assets and HUGE blue sky potential.

You would think that the sharemarket would have zoomed the price up on such good news. I must be the only one who has heard the news. LVG shares were 40 cents + a little over a year ago. I am buying squillions of them at 4 cents each.

I will retire handsomely on this one company. In a year or two I am going to repeat this post--from my mansion on the French Riviera. Cheers, N.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:24 - ID#252391)
Nick, glad you have the spirit
Had your mne been a technology or Y2k company it would have received some press. It will indeed be interesting if this cylce ever gets reversed and the media finally discovers gold ( and silver ) .

As for me, I'll be off for a couple of days though back in time to see the Friday action. Doubt things will be much changed upon my return.

I look forward to perhaps seeing Bart's site improvements and live prices again upon my return.

Go Kitco

Farfel and RJ take a rest.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:29 - ID#33184)
Dmark vs Euro and Dollar
What are your views on the strength of the d-mark versus the euro and the dollar? Is the dmark going to get weaker vs the dollar but stronger vs the euro in the short term?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:40 - ID#252197)
....wanna play monopoly
tolerant1: Recently I had the good fortune to

observe a group of young people play a game of

monopoly. I say good fortune because it was quite

an education for me.

As the pre-game preliminaries were under way

( counting out equal amounts of money and

establishing ownership of individual token pieces )

there was joking and laughter and lots of free

flowing vibrant life. Fun and joy was being had by


At the first throw of the dice the focus became

narrowed and the concentration riveting. The

board was now the focus with much less free

flowing attention. Camaraderie was beginning to

limit itself to the game only.

As the game progressed and the players began to

accumulate property and spend their money, slowly

the sense of equality began to change to that of

inequality. Stress became more evident.

Occasionally, a rogue player was reprimanded into

compliance, usually with threats of expulsion or

monetary penality. This method worked best if all

the other game members were in agreement with the

demands on the rogue player.

As time passed, increased stress, tension, and

various negative emotional affective responses

were apparent. The players not fairing so well

exhibited the most observable stress responses.

The players doing well appeared to be exurberant,

confident, and content.

As more time passed an increase in complaints

could be heard. More growns of dispair and

increased dissatisfaction were quite obvious. The

players that were winning gave superficial

encouragement to the losers while quietly

grinning to themselves knowing that they were

reaching a point where they couldn't or wouldn't

be beaten at the game.

Shortly, thereafter, one of the players was very

disheartened and said he was quitting. By this

time one player in the game had emerged as the

power broker or controller of the money and

property. Another player was doing ok and another

player was barely staying above board. This latter

player also said he was quitting.

The winning player became obviously stressed and

pleaded with the others to continue playing. Not

getting the response he wanted he bagan to badger

and ridicule the players that were quitting. The

two that were quitting said he could have their

money ( he already had their property ) they just

didn't want to play anymore. The winning player

became desperate and coercive but to no avail.

The two that left the game quickly regained their

composure, began to loosen up, laugh, joke, and

have fun as they left the room. The player that

was the power broker continued to defame the two

that left and said he wasn't going to play the

game with them anymore and was obviously ill at


The player that was doing fairly well could see

that the one's that left were having fun and she

wasn't. She evidently made a decision that it was

not in her best interest to continue playing. She

said she was also quitting.

The winning player was furious and began to

ridicule her for quitting. She said "I don't

know why you are mad at me, you have the most

money, and now you can have mine too." She then

left to join the others.

The winning player grumbled to himself as he put

the money and the game back in the box.

I thought to myself, Is he the winner or the

loser? If he was the winner he sure wasn't happy

about it. He looked more like he should have been

the loser. It must have been the control over

others and the various ramifications of that that

made the game enjoyable for him. Here he sat with

all the money but wasn't happy. What was missing?

Then it became obvious he didn't win the money

they gave him the money and left the game to

pursue other individual fun and enjoyments. He

was demoralized and defeated. The others were

back to experiencing free flowing, vibrant,

joyful existence, unhindered by someone else's

game rules. They were the winners. They had

inadvertently defeated the power broker by

capitulating and withdrawing from the game. The

winner was defeated yet still had won the game.

However, soon he also regained his composure,

his face lightened up in anticipation, and he was

off to pursue enjoyment with the others

As I sat alone in the empty room staring at the

table and the monopoly box, so static and

lifeless, I wondered how many times this game had

been played before? How many thousands of years

this game has been played?

How many times has humanity sacrificed or given

up it's joy and love of life in favor of the game?

I saw those young people before and after the

game alive with love, happiness, and joy. But

during the game they appeared to experience so

much negative emotion. Is this what the game does

to us? Does it rob us of our ability to experience

love, peace, and happiness? I think not. I think

it is more our willingness to switch or change

our priority from that of our innate love in and

of life to that of the pursuits of the game.

Which came first? Which is natural and freely

given to all? And which has the only meaningful

real value? Can we do both without one infringing

upon the other? I think so. I hope so. I know so.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:57 - ID#373284)
james2_A, Namaste'
laughter...tears...YOU are ANY of MY HOMES...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 04:57 - ID#393224)
Metals all up.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 05:09 - ID#43349)
oil too

(Wed Jun 17 1998 05:13 - ID#432148)
james2_A - Monopoly
Very interesting diagnosis of the game of Monopoly. Good observations. But, in real life we have to remember that most of us have to play "the game" if we want to eat regularly ;- ) It's how we play the game that is the challenge. I wonder if in the end the real winners are the ones who share most of their good fortune with others as they go through life.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 05:28 - ID#373284)
Goldbug23, Namaste'
Every aspect of this life is about giving...fortunes mean nothing if you cannot share one with many others...And now that you have postulated such a question...IN YOUR HONOR...ten pieces of gold shall be given to children...I shall find it in their ears...



(Wed Jun 17 1998 05:46 - ID#432148)
You are obviously a scholar and a gentleman. It is a pleasure to be associated with you on this great site. Tovarish. ;- )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:06 - ID#26793)
Repost of Value Added Tax news on European gold

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:07 - ID#26793)
London morning gold fix $288.40

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:10 - ID#26793)
Japanese bankers resisting government attempts to force them to disclose bad loans.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:13 - ID#347447)
Yesterday lots of folks at Kitco got real annoyed at each other ( so why should yesterday be any different? ) . They seemed to be saying inflammatory things to one another about religion, race, and bears. I myself, invariably a paragon of evenhanded wisdom, and spiritual transcendance, even deigned to variable and chime in. Hey, it's a little give and take, right? If you can't stand the heat, get out of the bedroom! But do you know what really ticked me off? I'll tell you.
All those brothers and sisters posting how we should all observe "netiquette" and get "back on topic." Some of 'em even copied the "rules" and took up valuable band width with them. Band width which coulda been used to disparage at least one or two more ethnic groups. Or maybe women. Or gays. Lissen, here's my point...Kitco is a discussion group for Gold Analysts and Investors. Now if you are really interested in gold, you HAVE to be interested in what goes on in the minds of gold investors. And another thing, GOLD is not some parochial thing like Sunbeam management, or Chrysler stock. Gold is universal, it is not just money, not just a commodity, it is philosophical, metaphysical...indeed, it is SPIRITUAL. Everything connected to gold as the metaphysics behind money is connected to human thinking, desire, and action. If you want to know what is happening to gold, you must understand what is happening to mankind. If you want to know what is going to happen to gold, you must understand what is going to happen to mankind. As for those who cry for us to remain "on topic" with technical and fundamental "market" analysis of gold, I say that if you know what you are looking for, you'll find it at Kitco. You simply will NOT find better minds anywhere else on the topic. That doesn't say much for us, true, but nowhere else on Earth will you find BETTER gold market analysis. And, despite cries to the contrary, there is enough information and opinion on both sides - bull and bear, for thoughtful investors. Besides, there is just so much brilliant analysis people can come up with. When they bring in something new, instead of repeating the same things over and over ( let's face it friends, how much more of fiat-money vs gold revelations, and the bull market is surely coming, and the central banks are selling can we take? ) they get grief. What's new? When someone new comes along, like Another, or some other, they get attacked as much as they get adored. I remember when I came on this forum as an astrologer. Lord knows Kitco needed one, but I had to pay my dues. Still get sniped at by my Christian Fundamentalist brothers. Go figure. So we clearly have plenty of varied and pithy "on topic" for them's that needs their hand held. I don't mind the lapses into sociological pathology. This is very illuminating. This will tell you more about gold and investments than you could imagine. Because gold is not about making money first, is about life and philosophy. Seek ye first that knowledge, and you'll get what you deserve later on. No, I can't say I am distressed at what "hate mongers" or just decent people simply giving their opinion have to say. Those of us who are intelligent grownups can see things for what they are. The rest give themselves away, and they are human and entitled to be morons, like us all. What does tick me off is some self appointed "monitor" threatening to tell the "teacher" when we start throwing spitballs in class. That I can do without. As for the prejudice shown last night about a certain group, yes it was unfortunate. The stereotyping of behavior, the implication that this group is a danger, and how to handle them, all this was disturbing.
But, we must admit, this group is different from us. They think differently, and they live differently. This has to be taken into consideration when we are dealing with them. I talking, of course, about the bears.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:14 - ID#26793)
Persistent rumors of a major Japanese bank problem. (Reason for Summers visit?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:19 - ID#26793)
Chinese CB reduces interest paid on US$ deposits; raises it on HK$ deposits.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:23 - ID#26793)
Mexican business interests want more money printed.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
Canadian economist wants Japan to print more money.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:25 - ID#411331)
Y2K: yesterday someone posted that the IRS will not be Y2K compliant at
the millennium. This will mean manual processing
tax forms, and necessitate a great simplification
of the process. My guess is that the US and Canada
will go to a flat rate tax system which can be done
as a one-liner tax form, and is a no-brainer for
all, including the gov't processing. This all
presupposes that any one has a job after the

A poosible benefit of the flat rate simple tax form
is the difficulty of writing in all the tax loopholes
for corporations and businesses. For the first time
in living memory, everybody may be paying their fair share
of taxes. I wonder how that will affect the deficit......

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:29 - ID#26793)
IMF rescue team on the way to Russia.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:30 - ID#341189)
Indonesian locals convert to dollars - more unrest ahead?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:33 - ID#26793)
Adjusted for inflation, oil prices are at a 25 year low.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
Can deflation happen here? Absolutely. Golden Age turns to lead.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:46 - ID#26793)
Three charity workers find $83,000 in gold and silver coins and ingots

(Wed Jun 17 1998 06:59 - ID#26793)
10 reasons the Bull Market could be on its last legs.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:02 - ID#26793)
Time Magazine board thinks the economy is about to come down from its giddy high

Bully Beef
(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:08 - ID#259261)
A U.S. President can serve only two terms? I didn't know that!
Thanx for correction Crys B. Our Prime ministers sometimes go for 20 year. Nice posts Donald. All the news I need A.M. Off to work!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:14 - ID#26793)
First signs of a slowdown in the Mexican economy.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:19 - ID#26793)
An excerpt from my 6:59 post to induce you to read the whole thing.
According to Vancouver-based market historian Robert Hoye, the current
market environment is strikingly reminiscent of five earlier periods -- 1720,
1772, 1825, 1873 and 1929 -- that ended in dramatic crashes in financial
asset values. In each case, the price of gold was deflating, like now; real
long-term interest rates were declining, like now; short-term rates were in a
rising trend, like now; and real estate prices in major cities were soaring, like
now. His conclusion? A crash, followed by a depression.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:23 - ID#57232)
Thank You for clearing the Air
Mike Sheller: My assessment is as I stated before -- the most productive members of Kitco are the ones that avoid getting into battles about the topics you discussed.

I must admit on a less serious note, I was not aware of the bear minority that was being trashed. I guess they are getting a bad rap, given their reported attraction to trash at the National parks. Were you referring the the National Park Service report about Hikers wearing little bells in bear - populated areas to protect the hikers? I guess the lesson there is only to wear bells too large to be swallowed while being eaten by a bear. That would eliminate the telltale sign in the droppings, and skew the statistics. Unless, of course, you are able to identify human remains even without the bells in the droppings bit. Or, perhaps you are referring to the gold bear, that heavily maligned Ursan species, even more maligned than the infamous equities market bear. As we know very well if you are a dyed-in-the wool Kitcoite, there is no such thing as a gold bear - ever! And if you are a member of that more silent majority out there, there is no such thing as a market bear -- only bulls.

It will be interesting when the market bulls get eaten by the market bears. It sure looks like a market bull doesn't even know when he is being eaten. Maybe the bells are too big for that telltale sign.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:23 - ID#370218)
Donald...still LOL...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:24 - ID#255217)
Thanks for your post of 04:40.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:27 - ID#370218)
Stock markets...a little scary
Stock market gyrations of 6%-7% in a day may be saying something about volatility. Yes? Four or five Asian markets doing the same thing almost every day. Currency crisis is here for real. All the paper currencies are tied together. The US$, just like all the others, will have its turn to just have to time your moves. Oh, by the some hard assets. Gold is good and so is silver. Platinum, well sure up early today.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:28 - ID#57232)
Bear minority
Sorry: Apologies to the Bear minority. I will behave -- I promise!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:32 - ID#45173)
@robnoel & themissinglink: Buchanan and the evils of protectionism
From "Four Threats To Prosperity" contributed by Donald ( Thx ) .

"Protectionism: The defeat of fast-track legislation last year was ominous -- the first setback in 50 years on the march toward tearing down all barriers that prevent nations from trading with each other.

Free trade gives us things that are cheaper and better than we can make ourselves. It allows us to concentrate on what we do best -- lately, high technology. No doubt, candidates such as Democrat Richard Gephardt and Republican Pat Buchanan will try to appeal to economic ignorance and xenophobia in the 2000 campaign. If they succeed, the Golden Age will end abruptly, as it did in 1929, when tariff wars broke out. We would lose markets for our goods, and inflation here would rise without competition from abroad to hold down prices -- a disaster.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:37 - ID#287186)
Speaking of Bears
Time to sharpen up the bull's horns - get that beast into fightin' shape.
Since Bart shuts down the old K2 this weekend one of the denizens from that menagerie may be coming over the pass to harass folks here. Reckon he'll be tippin' over trash cans, rootin' through our garbage, eatin' the family pets, tearin' down the clotheslines, scarin' the daylights out of folk when they head out to the 2-holer out back, and generally makin' a nuisance of himself.
So speakin' of bears...
Grizzzzzzzzz is a comin'
along with his pet wolverine
and maybe more of the menagerie.
Batten down the hatches! Katie bar the door!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:40 - ID#289357)
Donald @ VAT tax on gold

Donald - do you know the present VAT on GOLD bullion coins? Is it 17-18%? Wow! That kind of drop should stimulate some demand.....

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:49 - ID#45173)
TYoung: Recall the markets pitched around for a couple of weeks
this way before the Oct. 29 crash. When markets girate 5% - 7% a day individual investors hardly notice, they're too busy trying to earn a pay check. But the folks who trade for a living tend to get sea sick and after a while look for a way onto terra firma. No?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:49 - ID#393224)
Ted Butler@Warren Buffett Silver
Don't remember who posted Ted Butler's article about WB and silver, but it is an absolute must read for anyone contemplating a silver investment. Mark it, read it, think about it, read it again. WHEN, NOT IF, SILVER ZOOMS IN PRICE, YOU WILL BE GLAD YOU DID.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:51 - ID#341189)
Donald, Your 6:59
I just did a quick PE for the top 5 most active on the NASDAQ yesterday - the usual suspects trading over 70 million shares. One has no earnings. The other 4 average 40.5 times earnings. These are the leaders of the new era.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 07:56 - ID#427357)

Internationally-acclaimed market analyst and author is particularly brilliant this week in the generous sharing of his vast financial knowledge. Moreover, his sharp wit makes for an entertaining read. Following are brief excerpts from his this week's report.

"Currencies crash in Thailand, and in Indonesia you can now get three pounds of sugar, one pound of coffee, one bottle of wine and a wife for only ten US dollars." Hello, TWA Airlines? When's the next flight to South-East Asia?

"and Pfizer considers adopting as its motto, "Viagra is a pill men can stand up for!"

On a more serious vane, "WHY THE IMF SHOULD BE ABOLISHED."

"The International Monetary Fund needs to be horsewhipped on television, worldwide, for raising taxes instead of having correctly linked paper currencies to gold."

"Kill the IMF." - ( Dines was trying to get into Tolerant1's good graces ( :- ) )

"More than half of the IMF's borrowers between 1965 and 1995 were no better off than when they started. A third were actually poorer. Almost all were deeper in debt."

Full report at URL below - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:00 - ID#26793)
Yes; but the Dow/Gold Ratio is still way above the 233 day moving average. In a mania like this people don't do rational things like check their paper for P/E values before the buy that New Era junk. They buy on hype.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:03 - ID#26793)
How can we get the states and provinces to do the same on the sales tax?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:11 - ID#427357)
Nick@ Ted Butler@Warren Buffett Silver

REF: "Don't remember who posted Ted Butler's article about WB and silver," Here 'tis - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:17 - ID#393224)
Vronsky@thanks mate
Conclusion of the Ted Butler article:

What Warren Buffett has done, more than anything else, is alert anyone intelligent
enough to listen about a world class investment opportunity. I can just about hear him
describing silver as an ongoing business or stock. "Here is low price venture that is
guaranteed never to go bankrupt. It will always have a ready liquidation value. I can
own it in size. It is 98% below its inflation adjusted high price of twenty years ago. I
never have to worry about bad management taking over. Shares outstanding are
being reduced by twenty per cent a year. It requires no time, no maintenance and little
ongoing expense. It is like no other asset and is a prudent diversification. It is
impervious to currency and political upheaval. It has stood the test of time for utility
and desirability. It is known and wanted by every inhabitant on the earth. It is out of
favor currently with the establishment. It has the largest naked short position ever
known in history. The risk/reward ratio is so good it's scary. Forget compliant, it's Y2K
enhanced. And, although it probably shouldn't matter at my age, it is the sexiest
investment I own."

Maybe somebody can come up with a better investment than the current best bet of
the world's best investor. Even so, my hat's off to Warren Buffett, and if you're a silver
bull, yours should be too.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:17 - ID#45173)
Repost: New 'New Era' investing
"The Federal Reserve said: 'There is no means of knowing beyond question how far this recent rise in stock prices represents excessive speculation and how far a readjustment of values to increased industrial efficiency... ...and larger profits.'"

Extract from the Fed's minutes exactly 70 years ago, in 1928, on the eve of the Wall Street crash.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:20 - ID#7568)

Amid the doom and gloom surrounding Japan, there has been scant mention here of the recent reversal of the Yen. With virtually the entire world short the Yen in one way shape or another, the potential for a massive short covering rally is in the cards. Since it appears that the BOJ is stepping up to plate, we may see such action very, very soon.

The BOJ must be sensitive to the idea that failed intervention will be worse than no intervention as it may embolden ( if that's possible ) already fat and happy specs. Knowing this, it is likely that they will press any advantage ( rising Yen ) to the limit.

Under cover a weaker dollar the precious metals will certainly see a little life. Silver looks jumpier than gold, but even the yellow metal should get some support. If the funds can be stopped out in either of these metals, a good sharp rally could ensue.

There has not been much going on in the metals in the last few days. The shorts are short and the longs are long. The decline in Comex silver inventories continues slowly but surely. It would not be surprising to see them drop in a big way should a rally get underway. If the longs are looking to spice things up a bit, a big chunk of declining stocks will aid the story.

Since we are nearing the end of the quarter, the longs will more than likely look to put a good number on the board. The reason that the longs are more likely to do this than the shorts is because the longs are discretionary players while the big shorts are systematic trend followers. The system players just do what the market tells them to do. Sometimes the discretionary players try to tell the market what to do. If they are large enough, they can be successful.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:30 - ID#288186)
D.A. Thanks for the comments...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:39 - ID#24864)
Morning D.A. What just happened in the Yen
as you were posting to us ? Have you got your own Robert Rubin effect as you speak? Was that 3 or 4 handles at 08:22 .
Waiting and watching. JohnC

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:40 - ID#50148)
From the CBS Market watch headlines.....

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:46 - ID#7568)

If you are a Kitco reader surely you must know of the worldwide conspiracy. Truth is Bob R. gave me a call at around 8:15, I got long a few zillion yen, passed the word to those on my list and then had time to write a small missive for the Kitco folks.

This trading stuff is real easy when you're on the inside.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:49 - ID#29048)
Yen intervention
Yen is at 138, GO GOLD!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:50 - ID#224363)
You should try and get on D.A.'s list, I was long 2M Yen and a few tons of gold yesterday and already I'm rich today...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:51 - ID#404189)
It was NY FED acting on behalf of Rubin. Does Fed have to, or is it co-operating graciously? An important distinction. As I remember this is essentially is monetizing the debt and has to have Greenspan's blessing.



(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:51 - ID#410114)
Neural Net
God, I love those neural nets!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:52 - ID#50148)
LOL :- ) ) .......

(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:54 - ID#404189)
Made the YEN call at 9:55 AM last Friday...long YEN short UST.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 08:57 - ID#227168)
Aquarian thought
Never give up Someday your stars will shine.The human will, that force unseen , The offspring of a deathless soul, Can hew its way to any goal, though walls of Gold intervene. Away

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:02 - ID#50148)
What a choice! A Chinese devaluation or a dollar devaluation to support then Yen. Hmmm. Intels earnings forecast cut... Ohmy...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:04 - ID#432157)
To PMF who is DM list ??????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:05 - ID#393224)
Yen up sharply
also A$, M peso and S&P

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:06 - ID#404189)
OOPS .......AU
shorts just had to cover!


(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:10 - ID#431263)
Sorry, Glenn, but gold is now gonna' soar as dollar is trashed to save our global market for US goods! Bonds are tankin' and S&P futures bouncin' around like a rubber ball! Ultimately, great for PM and PM stocks and all hard assets! WE ARE NOW GONNA' TRY TO INFLATE THE WORLD AT THE EXPENSE OF OUR EQUITY MARKETS! LOOK OUT BELOW!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:11 - ID#227168)
Still waiting
Geoffs I told those Timmins boys to get crn up or else. Better they use hand drills Away to work

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:12 - ID#393224)
Metals like the Yen move
Cu, Ag, Pa and even Au up nicely on futures.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:14 - ID#432157)
Poorboys--Good comment Thankyou waiting for Volumn to return-Yes

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:14 - ID#288186)
Current prices..
August Comex Gold @ 293.60
July Comex Silver @ 5.290
Sept T-Bond @ 122 10/32

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:15 - ID#373403)
Appreciate your quote on the evils of protectionism. The view however is dogmatic and does not directly address some unique points which I made in my post.

Please address in your own thoughts my concept that the cheaper prices and lower wages are a one time benefit and that wages will rise slower than prices in the end.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:16 - ID#431263)
Had to do it to save BC's @$$, I mean face, while standing up proudly for human rights in Tianemin ( Sp? ) Square!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:16 - ID#242325)
JSE Gold index up nearly 5% this morning. But AU not doing that well considering the yen's surge this morning.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:17 - ID#333127)
I want to sell gold stks on this rally, how hi we going??????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:20 - ID#224363)
Read down a bit in today's posts.

Date: Wed Jun 17 1998 08:20
D.A. ( the.yen.and.the.precious ) ID#7568:

Date: Wed Jun 17 1998 08:39
JohnC__A ( Morning D.A. What just happened in the Yen ) ID#24864:

Date: Wed Jun 17 1998 08:46
D.A. ( its.the.conspiracy.thing ) ID#7568:

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:21 - ID#431263)
150 Yen was the breakpoint for China. US had to act NOW to avoid another catastrophic round of competitive currency devaluations!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:24 - ID#32078)
Good point in your last point. The US cannot afford to send BC to China if China is worried too much about an excessively high dollar with dropping yen and potential new Asian currency problem. Therefore, we bring the dollar down and support the yen for awhile, at least until after the China visit next week. Then market forces can take over, maybe Chinese devaluation and Glenn's prediction of a lower gold price. Until then, enjoy the rally.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:25 - ID#242325)
Missing link: Your post how workers are getting screwed by globalization is right on the money.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:26 - ID#431263)
But will ultimately have very negative consequences for holders of us stocks and bonds! Japan must have been close to sellin' their treasuries and BUYIN' GOLD!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:27 - ID#404189)
Golden Head
...145 is the level at which Japanese money center banks are insolvent.

What a coincidence.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:32 - ID#432157)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:33 - ID#431263)
Never underestimate the power of organized labor to scare the democrats into action! After all, there's an elction comin' up this Fall, ain't there? : )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:35 - ID#255151)
G'day Kitco

Many fine posts this AM. Gold has put a few gains together for a change. Speaking of bears, I hear they don't ring a bell at market tops. Well, that's not entirely true. I hear dingdongs at Kitco every day!: )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:38 - ID#24864)
D.A. Your 08:46
Still chuckling away. Chortle chortle
Thanks for your very valuable posts from the coal face.
Happy trading JohnC@Sunny_Brisbane

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:47 - ID#404189)
...called this YEN short ambush as YEN/$ moved last leg 143 to 146ish.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:52 - ID#317193)
James re JY...good call last weekend!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:52 - ID#248180)
Looking for S/Korean & Indonesia's Gold ?
Swiss trade surplus triples
The Swiss trade surplus grew from SFr161m ( $107.53m ) in April to SFr481.6m in May. Imports fell SFr786.1m to SFr8.45bn, while exports fell SFr465.5m month-on-month to SFr8.93bn. Including a large rise in imports of precious metals and stones from south-east Asia, the overall deficit for the first five months of 1998 was SFr1.09bn.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:52 - ID#431263)
August gold now at $292.


Bond at 5.712.

Emerging markets luv this lower dollar! TMX, TBR all movin' higher!

Aussie dollar luvs it too. Now over 61 centavos!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:54 - ID#410215)
..... Prices .....

Geoffs -

These prices are live during market hours and the closest thing to spot you will find anywhere on the net. It is particularly tough to get spot platinum and palladium prices but you will find them there.

I get a lot of requests for price quotes for gold coins We have also just added our ask prices for gold, silver, and platinum coins.

These prices do not update after market hours, but are the most accurate I have found anywhere. All bullion prices are spot. All coin prices are ask.


Any questions, feel free to ask me at


(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:57 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 09:59 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:01 - ID#248180)
From Colins Site @ Vronsky & Golden Eagle
Vronsky: I thought that you might appreciate the feed back.
Hot Potato News
The golden-eagle site appears to me to be just about the most graphics-bloated, time-consuming-download site to read any financial or bearish news. And it has just got worse. There was a time when you could read the front page, halt it when the current news list appeared, and click the latest update. Now this news list appears to have been corrupted or turned into another bloated graphic. I long ago gave up searching the other topical page, where every link was via a graphic, so that one had to halt the download at the right moment and scan the broken graphic symbols to check the filename ( at least you could figure the date from the filename ) . I will therefore no longer make any links to the golden-eagle site. I recommend that you check the Kitco site ( see New Links, below ) for news and current events ( although, be warned, you may have to skip numerous offensive postings on the web chat page to find relevant information ) .

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:02 - ID#431263)
BOND NOW DOWN 1 3/32 to 5.72!
Bond holders about to be slain on the altar of the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:03 - ID#290172)
james2__A (....wanna play monopoly)

Congratulations on an extraordinarily insightful piece! A brilliant psychological portrait of power players-from government halls to investor alleys! Thank you for a great read.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:04 - ID#404189)
Would be interested in visiting your commentary at MONEX. Would you please post URL? Thanks


(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:12 - ID#26467)
July 8 going to be an interesting date with June
15 turning point 68-69 bottom

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:13 - ID#266105)
@with rescues like that who needs saving

Donald ( IMF rescue team on the way to Russia. )


Are they going to mobilize the army or just take'm
out with a missile before landing.

Auric -- speaking of dingalings, Bart's got the Black Flag
out-- beware K2 bugs crawling around. The woodwork squeaks--
Outcome: The freaks.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:13 - ID#410215)
..... HopeFull .....

I write the weekly review - except the last one because I was on the high seas. Updates are posted Friday afternoons. The review is an overall look of the last week in precious metals.

It may be found here:


(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:14 - ID#187109)
Been chasing Yen for a while ( for those astute enough to recognize ) and I was not in on this latest move even though David@goldfever posted that IMPORTANT article about the Chinese getting pissed off about Japan and US not propping up en.
Thank you David for being on top of that one. I had every intention of going long soooooooon.......... ( damn ) ......just got off the phone with my broker-dude and he was pissed too. Everyone was long June en and they missed it too. The sentiment for longs was around TWO% a few days ago......wonder where it is now. He said, "timing is EVERYTHING".....I said, "jeee thanks"......... ( duh ) .....
I am looking at the silver lining though ( pun ) ........and she is doing well......and what will this do for Plat?.......perhaps the Japanese will stop selling it into the ground to make up for their crapper high will the en mouse run up the clock?
Perhaps it will be good for ALL commods........I think es. Go Azucar! cancel that cheap flight down-undu.........

this is the RJ commentary

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:16 - ID#290172)
Donald--Speaking of "great reads"...

We are at that point in the play where having the opportunity to re-read your BIS piece would be very focusing. Would you mind reposting it? Many thanks ( for EVERYTHING! ) {:- )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:20 - ID#187109)
I have yet to read a cool *detailed* summary of the trip with Gilligan and Ginger............well??

And......regarding refractions?? Let me watch the world unfold from the 'puta


(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:24 - ID#39857)
this is not a post
The bit I like is about the second largest stash of foreign
exchange. Peek-a-boo!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:25 - ID#373403)
Easy predictions
Gold will rally in the short term as the U.S. commits to weakening the dollar vis a vis the yen. This commitment is very weak however with Rubin being a big fan of a strong dollar.

The market has spoken about it's desire to get out of yen. Intervention is short term, market desire is long term. As Japan slips further into economic chaos, the U.S. government will abandon support for the yen. We are talking weeks and months, not years to quote the World Bank.

This is perfect for a 30% medium term trade. Buy now, hold until just before Japan slips into depression, sell, wait for the final gold bottom, buy, and hold until the global depression is over. Of course, I am not an investment advisor so if I am wrong you are S.O.L.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:38 - ID#36156)
6/17/98 Friend of ANOTHER


Another believes the BIS has actually entered the gold physical market. It was purchased through a Euro bank, not UBS and
is continuing. It is not for the account of any country, but for BIS capital. They may announce this outright through the news
services before he can write next week? My understanding is it was not for Japan! They were used as a diversion. For what
purpose, I do not know? It could be they see the banks in Japan are about to fall under the capitol ratio rules as their market
and economy takes a hit? The BIS may need the gold to cover any unpaid GF ( gold Franc ) reserve capitol due from BOJ?
This is most likely the reason. Besides, during a crisis, it will be to late to patch up reserve ratios. If Asia falls before the Euro
is in effect, Jan 1, it will take oil down with it in currency terms, along with an ensuing major reallocation of assets into gold.

This could get very intriguing!


(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:39 - ID#342315)
POST for Sharefin
He can't get on so here goes."Mar 02- melt up/ Global Warming Or Cooling?/ Global Warming/Global Cooling Temperature Reading. Below, I will review the latest economic indicators and developments from key economies around the world. Trying to asess from this wealth of information whether the global economy is warming or cooling is a highly subjective exercise. To add some objectivity to my global diagnosis, I like to use the CRB raw industrials spot price index as a thermometer for measuring the temperature of the global economy. This temperature reading plunged during October, November, December and the first half of January, from 335 in early October to 295 in mid-January. Since then it has stabilized just under 300, suggesting that global economic activity may also be stabilizing already ( Exhibit 2 ) I would be truly surprised if this is so. I expect that weaker global economic activity later this year will depress commodity prices. However, if they rebound instead, I'll have to reassess my prognosis. ( My apologies for mixing the weather and medical metaphors ) I also like to use the price of gold to assess the prospects for reflation versus deflation. This sensitive price has also stabilized in recent weeks, but it remains in a deflationary trend. The 10 year bond yield in Japan is my favorite indicator for guaging whether the latest Japanese economic stabilization and stimulus packages are likely to work. This yield remains below 2%, indicating that Japanese bond investors are not impressed ; they still see a deflationary recession unfolding in the world's second largest economy.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:39 - ID#373403)
Why is she going down?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:40 - ID#327123)
I received an error message that said to notify you when trying to send a filled in form to Southwest International Coin in their ad here.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:40 - ID#20748)
D.A. Conspiracy
Thanks for keeping us informed.

Now, can you please find out if your friend Bob R. intends to resume Japan bashing as soon as your friend Bill C. returns from China.

Thank you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:48 - ID#290172)
Hedgehog--There is something 'spooky' about a Chinese report put forward
by a writer whose name might be translated as "Just Gold"! {:- ) )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:52 - ID#333127)
Is 100 apiece a good price for Morgan Ms65 common date silver dollars. no 1921's ????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 10:58 - ID#327123)
@John Disney
Is Randgold & Exploration listed on other than the Joannesburg exchange. Also, do you agree that they could maybe be a better investment than RANGY, DROOY and HGMCY individually. In RANGY's case, with a 150+ projects going, the risk is very high.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:05 - ID#242325)
Latest analysis from Bill Murphy on yen rally and what it means for POG:

I hope it will translate to gold. Usually bears sell gold on rallies on outside events.$294 ( basis Aug ) place to
sell and they ( Ted Arnold, Merrill crowd ) did. A move now above $294r should send the hedge funds and
computer shorts running for the hills. If the Dutch are done or have very little gold left to sell, it will be hard for
the OTC shorts and 65,000 spec shorts to cover as the normal CB supply that is fed into spec short covering
rallies will have evaporated.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:11 - ID#266105)

Randgold Resources ( RRS ) is listed on the London Stock
Exchange. Quotes here, registration required:

Here's an info page on RRS:

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:14 - ID#289357)
rube @ numismatic silver dollars

You can do better than 100 bucks for common date MS-65's unless prices have changed considerably in the last few days. Best deals I've found in the past were with National Gold Exchange ( 800 ) 969-2646 ext 17, Steve Forehand. I haven't talked to him in a while - let me know what the current pricing is, if you get a good deal.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:24 - ID#431263)
LIHIR ADR'S NOW UP 2 7/16 (10.74 %) to 25 1/8!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:26 - ID#431263)
While SOX sinks!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:27 - ID#333127)
Thanks I'll call him tomorrow and then post.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:28 - ID#288244)
I read that Bart was the person to contact in order to change Handles.
You assigned me Steve__A
Can you PLEASE change it to just SWT
If not please contact me at
Thank you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:29 - ID#431263)
DOW UP 214!!
Oil at $13.76. AUG. Gold at $393.10.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:32 - ID#431263)
BC cmilin' in the Rose Garden as Dow soars and Dollar tanks.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:34 - ID#431263)
XOI UP 14.96!
Mexico and Brazil soarin' with lower dollar!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:38 - ID#431263)
"America's need a strong, growing ASian economy"--EVEN IF IT MEANS SACRIFICING PRICE STABILITY IN THE LONGER TERM! Oil at $13.85. BKX up over 20!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:40 - ID#36156)
Steve_A - RE: Bart
Might be quicker if you e-mail the BartMan direct:

HenryD ( Go Gold! )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:41 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:41 - ID#288186)
So, what does everyone think of this dramatic rise in the DOW?
Is this the final wave five up as APH suggested would occur?
Is this a final blow-off which will dramatically reverse when another
significant event occurs such as more asian turmoil, a plummet in
treasury prices, or a continual plumment in the US dollar? Please
feel free to comment... Fox-Man

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:44 - ID#431263)
Dow beginning to exhaust itself!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:53 - ID#286230)
Geez--what are you like when you are happy??: )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:54 - ID#402148)
Stock market ain't a gonna go down until copper gets off it's ass.

No, seriously, Greenspan follows copper closely, and he has to get the copper price up, or the world's economy is still down the toilet.

But, in order to "monitize the debt", as seen in todays forex intervention, and get it to copper to break back over 85 cents/pound, will he be able to contain the inflation unleashed in the USA in the process. The Japanese liquidity trap in reverse.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:57 - ID#229277)
themissinglink: didn't mean to give you a glib response before to your thoughtful post
it's been especially hectic today.

The question in my mind: is the USA better off because of free trade or not? The answer is a resounding "yes." Has everyone benefited equally? No. Workers in the high tech biz, where the US is highly competitive, have done very well. Workers in manufacturing sectors where the US is not price competitive have generally done less well. However, any effort to restrict imports of manufactured goods to help US manufacturing workers will be met by import restrictions by importers of US technology, and this will hurt high tech workers. We'll shift the pain, we won't end it. If you view the US as a business, it makes more sense to focus on our core competencies than to try to protect the parts of our business that are non-competitive. I favor retraining of manufacturing workers for the high technology industry.

The other negative side effect of protectionism is that it allows your core competencies to grow flaccid from insulation from market forces. The best thing Reagan ever did was to drop import restrictions on Japanese auto imports. This exposed US car makers to a competitive market forces. The result has been much more competitive cars, better made at lower cost. Without free trade, we'd still be driving around in Matadors and Vegas. I am VERY proud that my country now makes cars that rival ANY made anywhere in the world.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 11:57 - ID#431263)
XOI Up 15.22! BKX UP 20! SOX DOWN 3.34!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:00 - ID#431263)
to 137.56! DOW STARTIN' TO TANK BELOW 190! Tick only a +82

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:01 - ID#50148)
I wonder what this means????
Check out the new Schwab web site, in Chinese, no kidding!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:03 - ID#50148)
One more time!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:05 - ID#252150)
EB@JY intervention catch you by surprise? It was telegraphed well in advance.
My post of June 12:

James ( JY reversal@Maybe as early as next week ) ID#252150:
Copyright  1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think Rubin & his Japanese cohorts are setting a bear trap for the JY bears. There is
no way that they will let it weaken much further & take China & the rest of the world
with it. Watch for some positive news, something that will reverse the decline & then
bam!!Rubin will intervene in a big way. They never like to intervene until there is some
momentum in the right direction. I'll be looking to buy the JY when it gets back to 143.

Needless to say, this will get the POG heading back in the right direction.
I bought a fair amount of ABX this afternoon.

Don't feel too bad about missing it. I missed it too. Had a golf game yesterday morning. You could say it cost me around $10,000.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:06 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:08 - ID#431263)
Are you looking to buy the YEN now at 137? Or sell it?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:08 - ID#342315)
Another Post from Sharefin
Or Titanic America? A recession caused by the Year 2000 Problem ( Y2K ) is now my most likely scenario. I raised the odds of a Y2K recession from 40% to 60% last week in my Y2K Reporter #16. No one else on Wall St or Main St seems to be even thinking about this scenario. Indeed, Abby Joseph Cohen , the wise and widely respected investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, remains very bullish through 1999. Earlier this year, she wrote a report page 2 / March 23, 1998 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Analysis titled "Supertanker America". She updated it last week , writing there is "no recession in our forecast horizon". Her target is 9300 for the Dow by the end of 1998. She argues that the crisis in Asia will have little effect on the course and speed of the US economy. Ms. Cohen has been very consistent and very right. Waren Buffet, the equity investment sage , bought bonds last summer and silver recently. I surmised that these moves indicated that perhaps Mr. Buffet has come to understand the Y2K scenario and was hedging against it. I guess my hunch is wrong: He remains bullish on stocks telling his shareholders that the stock market overvalued with interest rates so low and "exceptionally high" profit margins ( Exhibit 1 on page 3 ) . Another widely respected pundit , an economist by traing , believes that the US economy is heading toward deflation. Nevertheless, he recently told me that he knows very little about the Year 2000 Problem, even though it is the one event that is most likely to trigger the deflation he expects. Along with Ms. Cohen and Mr. Buffet, I am also very bullish about the near term prospects for the stock market. Previously, I characterized the latest move into record territory as an "Asian relief rally" and a "melt-up". The Dow might even hit 10,000 later this year or early next year. Nevertheless, I continue to believe that "Asia matters". Cheap imports from the region should widen the US trade deficit significantly this year which will slow GDP growth. Cheap imports will have a deflationary influence on US prices and depress profits growth, in my opinion. For now , Ms Cohen's supertanker analogy is a good one. The US economy continues to move forward at the same speed and same course as prior to the Asian Crisis late last year. This is impresive. Also impressive is the rebound in Europe's economic activity. Next year, however, I think a better analogy will be the Titanic heading at a field of Y2K icebergs, while the passengers are dancing the night away. A collision is likely late in 1999 or at the start of 2000. The resulting recession could be as severe as the 1973-74 recession. But back then , oil prices soared . This time they are falling because of the drop in Asian oil demnad. Other prices are likely to fall too in a Y2K recession. A deflationary recession would be bad news for stocks , even if interest rates drop as I expect. I guess that the market may remain overvalued all year. It could get even more overvalued. Obviously , I don't see a market top just yet, but I still believe that the days are numbered for this mature bull market. Y2K icebergs ahead. Somtime between now and Jan 1, 2000, I expect to see a big drop in bank stock prices because an article in The Wall Street Journal will report that US banks are starting to increase their provision for loan losses because they anticipate that some of their borrowers may fail to service their loans because of Y2K problems. In fact, the article appeared on Wednesday , March 18. However, bank stock prices were actually up on the day. One day between now and Jan 1, 2000, I expect to see an article in the New York Times reporting that the Federal Aviation Administration will have to cancel some flights in January 2000. I'll be amazed if airline stock prices are not down that day. Gore's Strange Vision. According to a sarcastic editorial in the March 18 issue of The New York Times, Vice President Al Gore recently had a late night brainstorm, Why not have Congress fund a new 24-hr cable channel that will broadcast live satellite pictures of our planet? A dull idea from our dull veep, observed the Times. This man, who would be President, is clearly not giving much thought to the Year 2000 Problem. No-Show asteriod Makes Headlines. Y2K News is NO-Show. If The New York Times can poke fun at our vice president, I can poke at the Times. On March 10, the Office of Management and Budget issued its fourth quarterly progress report monitoring the Y2K - fixing efforts of the 24 major federal government agencies. It was disturbing. Indeed, Congressman Stephen Horn received an advance copy and converted the information into a report card showing an overall grade of D-minus

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:11 - ID#431263)
By the way, GREAT CALL ON THE YEN REVERSAL, MEIN HERR!! Let us know when you get illuminated like that again!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:14 - ID#431263)
EVEN KRY UP 1/8 or 12.5% TODAY!
Hope springs eternal...!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:17 - ID#431263)
COME ON $294!!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:21 - ID#287129)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Where did you get your info on DOW?
A few minutes ago you posted:
"DOW STARTIN' TO TANK BELOW 190! Tick only a +82"

Upon checking stock quotes at, I got the following info:
Dow: 8867.82 * +202.53 ( +2.34% )

There is a very huge difference between +202.53 and +82. Which server were you using, and which of these two figures is correct?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:25 - ID#431263)
At 12:06 the tick was a MINUS 79 on the CNBC ticker!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:29 - ID#431263)
AT NOON the tick was a PLUS 82 on the CNBC ticker. At 12:33 the tick on CNBC ticker is a PLUS 27 and going DOWN!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:30 - ID#431263)
I think you may be confusing the tick ( advances divided by declines ) and the DOW INDEX itself!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:31 - ID#402148)
What's your take? Ignore the noise. Everybody listen.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:32 - ID#255217)
I, too, would like to know the answers to those questions. Despite the multitudes of platitudes and seas of analyses, the DOW defies all logic. It's a pity the Titanic didn't have the resiliance to sinking that the Dow exemplifies. I sometimes wonder if we will all be sitting here, posting the same sentiments a year ( two years? ) from now.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:33 - ID#287129)
Thanks for the clarification.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:33 - ID#431263)
was that the tick is Advances MINUS declines not divided by. Sorry for the confusion.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:39 - ID#288186)
Argent; I can't imagine us posting the same-o same-o a year from now but
you never know...It sure seems to me like things are heating up.
I still believe that some day soon a ) the stock market will tank
b ) the dollar will tank c ) interest rates will go up d ) precious
metals will SKY ROCKET! YAHOOOOOOO!!!!!!! Fox-Man

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:44 - ID#288186)
We just hit Aug Gold 294.00!! It may need a little higher bump to trigger some
short stops, IMHO. Also, July Silver @ 5.340!! Fox-Man

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:46 - ID#255217)
You said it all.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:47 - ID#431263)

1 ) Harply higher Volume ( 700 million to 1 billion+ shares )
2 ) More skepticism ( higher put/call ratio )
3 ) AD line must improve. Topped out on April 6.


1 ) Earnings must pick up to 7% or higher.
2 ) Stronger Yen and Japanese economy.
3 ) Higher oil prices since Exxon and Chevron are two of the DOW 30 stocks.

AUGUST GOLD AT $393.80!!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:48 - ID#182188)
Y2K Impact on the POG
Y2K problems will cause a major recession in the next 12-24 months. The analogy to the "Energy Crisis" of the 1970's is excellent, but I think it will be worse for psychological reasons. Most people can understand oil, but they will be more afraid of computers since they don't understand them. Hence, larger problems since the financial markets are based on CONFIDENCE!

There's an article in my local paper this morning that says the electric company will have problems. Until all of the equipment is evaluated, they may have to switch manual controls, which will mean periodic outages.

The financial industry will be hardest hit. Many small banks will be require a FDIC bail-out. Many loans guaranteed by the US government ( Asia, Mexico, US businesses, et. al. ) will require even more money to be printed.

With the government printing so much money, deflation does not seem likely. A more likely scenario is something similiar to current situation in Russia. High inflation, high unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, and a loss of confidence in the government and infrastructure.

Inflation is NOT good for the economy, it does have positive benefits for the US government. Wealthy individuals see the value of their homes and real estate increase. People will buy cars and merchandise NOW rather than next year when the price will be higher. ( Some of us remember that Nixon implemented price controls in the US when inflation reached the extremely high level of ~3% )

All of these issues will cause the POG to skyrocket in the next 18-24 months.

Chas: Do you produce an Official Y2K report? If so, would you post the web site address, or send me a few details: ( The Internet needs a "Drudge Report" for systems and Y2K issues. )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:51 - ID#408147)
$100 for common MS65 morgans is NOT that great of a price. Especially if they are sight unseen and/or non-major brand slabbed coins. If they are NON slabbed or minor-brand slabbed, you are will be lucky to get an MS63 price for them if you try to sell...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:53 - ID#298259)
Would someone please kick start that XAU a bit - not responding well.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 12:55 - ID#431263)
Oil knocking at the door of $14.00!
CRB climbing back above 212.82! Sox down over 5!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:00 - ID#390415)
Forecasting the future
Lots of debate about where things are going: DOW tanking, DOW surging, Y2k depression, global prosperity.

Let me say this about the current situation.

After WWII, we had paid our dues, come through the nightmare, and as the 50's wore on there came a time of general economic optimism in the context of postwar ( primarily industrial ) growth. The Age of General Motors. Now, economically, we are in an analogous time that we could loosely refer to as the Age of Microsoft, multi-national hi-tech activity.

There is a major difference, and here is where I might ask forgiveness for injecting what might appear to be non-investment, non-gold related concepts.

But I contend that they are related, just as Y2k is related, because they should be factored into investment decisions.

Point: no culture that is killing its own offspring ( via abortion ) is going to be full of hope and optimism. Widespread abortion and societal optimism do not coexist. If life was really that wonderful, and we expected it to continue that way, we would not be negating it in the womb. I don't care if you are knee-jerk pro-life, knee-jerk pro-choice, or a thinking person, the logic is pretty clear.

Point: There are no widely accepted cultural moral norms. In the 50s, good people were good people, and everyone pretty much agreed. Whether or not you endorse all those values, they were there, and they were accepted. Now, what is good? We do not know. Moral confusion pervades our culture.

Point: Crime, violence in the schools, high divorce rates, all signs that we are not happy people. Prosperous, yes.

My intent is not to moralize. It is simply this: These "points" have implications as we try to make our best guesses as to where things are heading. The underlying structural weaknesses in our culture must at some point express themselves as economic, political, and military dislocations. It is simple cause and effect.

You can call it the judgement of God, you can call it the inevitable consequence of certain moral choices, it does not matter.

The simple truth is, a global society with problems as deep and widespread as ours may do well for a long time, but the odds are that it will collapse at some point, to some underlying level.

And as investors we bet those odds.

Go gold.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:00 - ID#246224)
To late to buy your survival food packs (Y2K fans).
All back ordered 3 months or more. ~~poof~~ Supply lines are being sucked dry by those who have been toying with the idea of preparedness but had not yet commited. There are committing now and the companies who supply them are dry. Sorry. Try again later maybe. The wave has begun.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:01 - ID#431263)
TICK a NEGATIVE -96 and Falling!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:10 - ID#252150)
Golden Cheesehead@JY
I'll have to see where it consolidates. The bears will be testing RR's resolve. If it consolidates over 140 I will consider buying it. After the big move up I don't have the nerve to buy it at this level. The trick to making money with currencies is to wait for them to consolidate & if speculators are sitting on big gains, it usually does'nt take much to induce them to take profits.

I'm siting on some pretty good gains from selling the JY & am reluctant to risk them at this point.

I don't believe that RR the G7 will let the JY collapse & take China & the rest of the world with it without one hell of a good fight.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:17 - ID#298259)
FOX-MAN__A ...
Where are you getting your Aug gold quotes took CBS Market Watch until now to register the $294.00 price. TIA

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:17 - ID#255226)
No Change
Hopeful - Yesterday's post hasn't changed. Aug gold counter trend rally. Should have been stopped out of gold short from 300 this morning with an approx $650 profit. Re-short 50% at 295 and the second 50% at 300.

July silver should find a short term top at 5.80 +/- before another correction into the low 5's. The highs maybe met in the night session tonight or tomorrow night. I bought some more silver at 5.23 on access before it closed this morning.

There should be a top for stocks and any metal rallys around 7/23.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:19 - ID#376309)
Well I lost and got stopped out. I'm still in amazement. Personnally I couldn't care less where this dam thing goes I just wish these trading ranges would stop and a strong trend would emerge. The thought entered my mind to go long when we had a pull back to $292.0 today but I didn't. If I had it would have been a small trade.

I do not like to re-enter right away so I'm going to take a step back. Not think about gold today and start again tomorrow. I do have two comments:

1 ) On the weekly charts we just completed a trade formation called "Turtle Soup Plus One" TM. You would have gone long on the open today with your stop one tick below this weeks low. THis trade does not have a defined profit objective but you are useing a weekly chart so it sould be a nice move.

2 ) When you are hot your HOT! as they say. I like to think that I'm better than average but YAUGER blows me away lately!

up to 71 - 77 on the XAU and then down to 60. Then another rally and then down to 35! I totally agree on 35 I'm just having trouble with the small moves here.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:20 - ID#229277)
DOW to follow Nikkei trading pattern?
Today the Nikkei shot up 170 but ended down 5. The DOW had a brave start, up 190 but moving sideways. Is the market is processing the inflationary implications of oil price increases and today's fresh round of downgraded Q2 EPS reports?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:24 - ID#255226)
Trading - Missed One
I've been trying to buy July Corn for the last week. Started at 2.28 then 2.29, 2.30 and finally 2.30 1/2, the low was 2.30 3/4 a couple days ago its trading at 2.45 now.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:24 - ID#194311)
You really can't help but wonder....
if Rob Rubin may have made a phone call to Goldman Sachs just before he pulled the trigger on the dollar....I mean really, his old boys would have been mighty pissed to miss out on a move like that?

Sorry to bring that vile up again...but you really have to wonder don't ya?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:26 - ID#342376)
@ Nightwriter
Superb post. That is exactly why I am in Gold. I wish it was different.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:31 - ID#335379)
RJ info please....
Hello RJ:
Could you Please post a summery of the yearly POG cycle, normal ups and downs for the year ?
Thank you in advance..
Nicodemus, looking but not yet understanding.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:33 - ID#342376)
A very thoughtful comment on the reasons for the recent action on the Dollar/Yen imbalance.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:42 - ID#410114)
US inflation ticked up unexpectedly dispite the strong dollar. The US's bill for imports has been droping. If the US $ is going to be devalued, then import prices may may rise. Warren Buffet is rumored to have purchased inflation indexed bonds.

The battle is now between Glenn's guru and Winston's neural net. who will win? Lets hope the neural net stays long.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:49 - ID#251166)
@ Rob re. "Winston's neutral net"
Hiya Rob -- Would you mind posting a url for Winston's neutral net? Like to know more about it. Thanks!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:50 - ID#251166)
@ Rob
Oops, that's "neural," not "neutral"

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:58 - ID#342315)
Brush Creek Mining & Dev (BCMD) Nasdaq
Just talked to the co. about current operations. They have some of the hard rock ore blocked in the Ruby and are working on placer ( "gravy" ) to finance further hard rock development. The placer is running from .1 to 1 oz/ton. They can handle 1000 tons/day. Some of the hard rock ore is over 30 oz/ton. Waiting on results of milling and recovery. They had a 1 for 10 reverse split in May. Last today was 1 3/8. I'm waiting on some specimens if your interested.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:59 - ID#288186)
Frustrated; I have an account with Lind-Waldock. I use their quote line. It's
unfortunately limited to Lind-Waldock traders and the time use is
limited. After your time is up, they charge .50 a minute. The quotes
are very very close to real time ( I think ) . Most trades cost a commish
( round trip ) of approx. $25

(Wed Jun 17 1998 13:59 - ID#252127)
Something's fishey

LME inventories keep going down. Where are these base metals going?
I still can't imagine 5 billion suits, maybe the next depressions motto will be "A suit in every closet". Scroll down to bottom chart for LME metal stocks.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:00 - ID#342376)
The smoke mirrors are being put up to cover the other smoke mirrors. When this thing really unfolds, it feels to me it's going to be the worst we have known this century. Gold may still go down for a bit, but there is no doubt it will go to the moon at some point before the century is out. Forgive my commentary as I know so very little compared to most at Kitco, but I have an awful sinking feeling in my stomach today. NightWriters post and that link I just read and posted put some things together for me. I really wish it was different. God help us all.......

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:08 - ID#212197)
@NightWriter (Forecasting the future)
I found your post very deep. Let me just tell you my spontaneous associations when you expressed reluctance to bring up the moral diseases of our time and "western societies" in the context of discussing investment strategies.

I thought immediately of the hedonistic liberation ideologies which were designed in Rockefeller's think tanks ( Sociological Research Institutes ) from the early thirties on.

The hedonistic liberation ideologies were originally a byproduct of empiric sociological studies aimed towards improving advertising strategies. The basis of hedonistic liberation ideologies is to limit the human mind's horizon to sensual pleasure and avoidance of pain. The ego-identity gets tied to this limited view of young people becoming educated to play their political correct role as mindless consumers. ( For example: Family values demand some sacrifice. They have to become destroyed to get the right orientation into the brains. )

There would be a lot more to say about this. But the bottom line in the context brought up by you is this: when Rockefeller's strategies to dominate the world ( --and I use "Rockefeller" here symbolically for the golbal financial oligarchy--- ) are based on the destruction of virtues and values, which have a lot to do with morality, then you are entiteled to bring up these questions in your broad analysis of financial markets.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:25 - ID#286234)
email jokes
No matter how hard you try, you can't baptize cats.
When your mom is mad at your dad, don't let her brush your hair.
If your sister hits you, don't hit her back. They always catch the second person.
Never ask your 3-year old brother to hold a tomato.
You can't trust dogs to watch your food.
Reading what people write on desks can teach you a lot.
Don't sneeze when someone is cutting your hair.
Puppies still have bad breath even after eating a tic tac.
Never hold a dustbuster and a cat at the same time.
School lunches stick to the wall.
You can't hide a piece of broccoli in a glass of milk.
Don't wear polka-dot underwear under white shorts.
You cant save an ice cream cone.
The best place to be when you are sad is in Grandma's lap.

You're asleep, but others worry that you're dead.
You can live without sex, but not without glasses.
Your back goes out more than you do.
You quit trying to hold your stomach in, no matter who walks into the room.
You buy a compass for the dash of your car.
Your are proud of your lawn mower.
Your good friend is dating someone half his/her age... & isn't breaking any laws.
Your arms are almost too short to read the newspaper.
You sing along with the elevator music.
You would rather go to work than stay home sick.
You constantly talk about the price of gold.
You enjoy hearing about other people's operations.
You make an appointment to see the dentist.
You no longer think of speed limits as a challenge.
Neighbors borrow your tools.
People call at 9 p.m. and ask, "Did I wake you?"
You have a dream about prunes.
You answer a question with, "Because I said so!"
You send money to PBS.
You still buy records, and you think a CD is a certificate of deposit.
The end of your tie doesn't come anywhere near the top of your pants.
You take a metal detector to the beach.
You wear black socks with sandals.
You know what the word "equity" means.
You can't remember the last time you lay on the floor to watch television.
Your ears are hairier than your head.
You talk about "good grass," and you're referring to someone's lawn.
You get into a heated argument about pension plans.
You got cable for the weather channel.
You can go bowling without drinking.
You have a party, and the neighbors don't even realize it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:27 - ID#421269)

Excuse me for a moment while I talk to myself. I have heard the rumor that instead of the Japanese, it was the BIS that purchased 400 tons of gold last week. I have no idea if this is factual or not. But if indeed the BIS was the purchaser of 400 tons of gold, I would think long and hard on what our oft-loved, sometimes hated, friend "Another" said.

I think it was something to the effect that " gold will not go below 280--- the BIS will purchase it outright for all the world to see." If it proves to indeed have been the BIS, I would think long and hard about shorting gold below 280. Just foolish thoughts......away to the Red River.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:37 - ID#431263)
LIHIR ADR'S UP 3 9/16 to 26 1/4 (15.7%!!)
August Gold closed at $294.90!!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:40 - ID#402148)
VENEROSO says so, and so does Arch Crawford when we close 10 points higher.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:42 - ID#290172)
Nightwriter & Alberich-Brabo to you both

Nightwriter-you may be writing at night, but you thoughts bring us dawn's light.

Alberich ( I'll be rich ) -you already are, in all the ways that count

You have provided us with organic examples of why the battle is worth waging. Thank you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:43 - ID#255226)
Fox-Man - If you run out of time on Lind-waldock's quote line ( I never have ) bring your account up on the lind on line service... put in an order that's out of range for the market you want and you will get R.T. quotes no charge.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:45 - ID#431263)
XOI UP 17.78! TYX @ 5.746!!SOX DOWN 6.23! CRB UP 4!!! ABX OVER 18!
Brazil and Mexico surging! TX UP 3! GRR UP 3/4! YAHOO! Oh yeh, it's up 8+!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:47 - ID#25171)
@ NightWriter and ALBERICH off topic ?
It feels good to know that some people share that line of thoughts.

If you express it in public ( i.e. an audience which is not predisposed to that kind of ideas ) , you will be scornfully characterized a fascist or at best retrograde.

But it is important to know what we are up against: the financial oligarchy and the political one ( closely intertwined ) meet and exchange ideas through free masons lodges which control most of the world . They have the ruling power , the money and the media.

Of course some of these lodges are at loggerheads but the prevailing idea is to annihilate the idea of god and the related duties to destruct the only ultimate power that threatens their might and could turn the people against them at some point.

To promote this anti-god philosophy you have to be a lowlife yourself and it is well known that lowlives wish everybody to be like them.

Hence the death culture and the reduction of the humanbeing into a consumer.

How long will it last ?

The trend started with " Le siecle des lumieres " in FRANCE 's 18 th century. Hope we come to an end sooner rather than later but it is difficult to say.

However , for christians there are some indications : read the messages of the virgin MARY who is still appearing now and for the last time in this world in MEDJUGORGE ( CROATIA ) .

(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:50 - ID#340302)
@RJ...Good Call on Plat and Palladium...
...through the roof!



(Wed Jun 17 1998 14:53 - ID#431263)
NIKKEI FUTURES UP 575! Grain futures surging! PD SURGING!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:00 - ID#194311)
DOW rally looking real shaky...
panic selling to get out gathering steam.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:06 - ID#431263)
CCI UP 6+! TMX UP 3 7/8!
Nothing bad can happen to US when Citicorp is surging! A strong indication that this move is for real and that ASIA will not be sacrificed for US equity holders! Still 73 NEW LOWS versus 51 NEW HIGHS!TICK now a -484! Look for a big retracement before the close. The generals ( SOX ) are marching to a different drummer. LIHRY UP 3 13/16 ( +16.8%! )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:06 - ID#50148)
Hmmmm.....This doesn't feel right...
Given a rough rule of thumb...For every one percent move in the price of gold you would expect about a four percent move in the price of gold mining shares.

Gold moved about 1.6 percent today, so we should expect about a six to seven percent increase in the average gold mining share price. I don't see that happening in a lot of cases... This is cause for caution and concern to me....... Stops are set.

Hope I'm wrong in my sentiment, after all, the day is not done yet...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:09 - ID#432157)
Golden Cheese Head

What are SOX and some of the other phrases mean ???

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:09 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:15 - ID#50148)
The SOX is the Phili semiconductor index. It contains INTC ADI TXN LSCC amongst others. It is a general indicator of the high tech semiconductor sector.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:17 - ID#25171)
The IMF can pour money ad nauseam in ASIA , RUSSIA or in any "ermerging market".
The japanese can try to come up with their usual tricks.
Dollars can be created until there is no more forest in the world.
Gold can be sold short by all the hedge funds and other financial institutions of the world.
Oil producers can be squeezed until death to reduce energy costs which enable western economies to boom.
New paradigm pundits can utter their perorations until they lack saliva


(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:17 - ID#411331)
@panda: I noticed the same thing. Volume was pitiful as well.
I don't think the market has much faith in the latest surge in gold.
I will be a believer if gold passes 304 but I am seriously considering
selling into this spike tomorrow.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:18 - ID#338228)
gold up $4.90 and...
Newmont Mining, which is totally unhedged currently down 1/16 ???

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:18 - ID#431263)
SOX is the Philadelphia semi-conductor index ( INTEL, Micron, Cyrix, etc. ) . BKX is the banking index. Xoi is the oil index, Xau is the Gold/Silver Index. TYX is the long bond.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:19 - ID#342376)
Comments from Veneroso Camp...
I asked Bill Muphy about the comment from "Friend of Another" on USA gold site that the BIS may be buying gold and could that be the purchase that has been talked about instead of the Japanese, this is his reply....

Yes, we have been talking about an Asian central bank buyer the past number of days. This world is very secretive and hard facts are almost impossible to come by. We have clients and sources all over the world and in this forum I have presented some of the feedback we are getting.
Whether it is Japan, Tawain, or China is very hard to say. We know that an Asian central bank was also buying last year when gold built a base around $320 last summer. We also were told the day they lifted the order and that is when the specs buried gold in an avalanche of selling. The old support was gone. They ( the Asian CB ) knew they would need a lot of powder for the developing Asian crises that ensued so they kept their cash and could have even sold some of what they bought.
The BIS is the central bank's banker and acts in behalf of central banks for countries who wish to disguise buys, or sales, in the gold market. In no way would they do any announcing. The country that did the buying or selling would announce when they are done. ( China in the past has not announced ) . Information in this arena can easily be accented differently with the best of intentions.
Bottom line - I feel very comfortable with the info we have that an Asian central bank is a big buyer and they have been soaking up the spec short sales. The more this is known, the better, as it may focus market participants on a very big positive for the gold market, both in the short and intermediate term.
I hope this was of some assistance to you.
P.S. We thought that there would this" Dollar/Yen Ambush" and told our clients so two days ago. This changes the entire market dynamics in the short term and is very favorable to gold. It is now the hedge fund wolves ( playing the deflation scenarios in a massive way versus, China, Japan, the rest of Asia and the G-7. Yes, an exciting battle.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:21 - ID#431263)
DOW SEll program just hit DOW at 155!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:21 - ID#340302)
@RJ...your call on Plat and Palladium...
...where's it going now?



(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:24 - ID#210235)
@An inside look at Russian finances
Here's a look at where the IMF money to the Russians is going. Yet another country resorting to barter. Got shovels?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:25 - ID#402148)
... talk is a lot of the mining companies are so dependant on copper to lower their gold production cost per ounce, that unles copper pops, gold shares progress will be retarded.

Good news is that when copper starts it's move it will be an all clear on the globale deflation scare.

Anyone here trade copper?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:28 - ID#210235)
@Hi, Crazytimes
As social commentary, your handle is veridical.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:28 - ID#286230)
Thre is a new copper site on SI if you are registered there.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:29 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:41 - ID#45173)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: see my post 13:20?
DOW to close up slightly, if at all...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:43 - ID#252197)
Great! Simply great!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:46 - ID#431263)
Saw it and filed it away into long term memory. Looks like things are stryin' hard to stablizie around UP 150!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:50 - ID#431263)
DOLLAR DOWN 7.11 to 136.18!
Who's gonna' step up to the plate and start sellin' YEN again? Aussie dollar up over 2 full cents

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:51 - ID#342376)
thanks Prometheus....
My place on this forum,if I have one, is certainly not about contributing to the fundamentals or technicals in the POG, although I have learned a great deal here at Kitco. It is about what I have seen and feel in the world for a quite some time now and I am only 37. It is about people becoming seperated from each other. The speed of our lives, rushing towards what I ask? We have lost contact with our hearts and each other. The default replacement for that loss is materialism, TV and movies, just imitations of the real contact we need with each other. I have been told by friends that I am doom and gloom but I say no, it's only what I see about to unfold. We will come around though, there are cycles for everything.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:51 - ID#335190)
Greenspan, Rubin air financial reform differences

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Chances of financial services reform legislation this year dimmed as Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin aired their fundamental differences before Congress Wednesday.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, the two senior officials refused to give ground on the appropriate structure for new
conglomerates that will mix banking with insurance and other financial services.
Greenspan favored the approach of legislation that narrowly passed the House of Representative last month that would place
non-traditional banking activities in bank holding company affiliates.
But Rubin said financial services companies should be allowed to choose between that structure and organizing other
financial businesses as direct subsidiaries of a bank.
The type of structure was a matter of management preference at many banks, he said. At smaller community banks the extra
cost of structuring as a holding company was a concern.
But Greenspan said banks were acutely aware of the special advantages of conducting non-traditional activities within the
bank company. "I submit to you that the issue of choice is a phoney issue," the Fed chief said, dropping his usual reserve.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:52 - ID#431263)
If anybody can save Japan and US BANKS it's BILL 'TELL-IT LIKE IT IS' SEIDMAN!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:57 - ID#431263)
C. Fred Bergsten on at 4:50PM EDT

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:57 - ID#252127)

Maybe they can use his head as a cyrstal ball.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:58 - ID#335190)
All Is Well @ Beige Book Has that GOOD FEELING. (Liberal Consumer & Fed Corp Leader)
U.S. economy performs excellently in May, Fed says

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. economic performance in May was "excellent," with production at brisk levels, ample jobs and low inflation, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

"The economy continues to grow in all Federal Reserve districts and across most sectors," the Fed's Beige Book economic report said. It will be used by Fed policy-makers when they meet on June 30-July 1 to consider interest rate strategy.

The report underlined the durability of the long-running U.S. expansion since the last recession in 1990-91, noting it was well supported by robust domestic demand that appeared to largely offset weaker exports to Asia.

"Growth is fueled by liberal consumer spending and by business investment in plants and equipment," it said.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 15:59 - ID#359316)
Dow close up 163.17...
Hardly "slightly, if at all"

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:03 - ID#431263)
I'll bet it was! : )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:09 - ID#29458)
A New and Ancient Departure for Gold
Kitco has been waxing somewhat more philosophical for the last few days so for my first post, I'd like to offer the following, which may indicate a turnaround for gold at a more fundamental level than is usually considered here:

A vedic "weight in gold" ceremony for the benefit of Dr. Tony Nader is scheduled to take place in the USA at the end of this month. The anticipated date is June 26th at a location to be announced.

The research techniques of modern science attempt to eliminate subjective aspects in order to produce verifiable, repeatable, objective results. Scientific approach was not always thus. In the ancient world, both the subjective and the objective values of life were embraced in an all-inclusive science - Vedic Science. An ideal vedic scientist was a person of expanded consciousness. If he wanted to investigate a distant planet for instance, he would first use the tools of his inner senses to investigate the reality directly; only secondarily would he employ the astronomical instruments of the time. This era of expanded mind embraced the challenges and realities of the world in an entirely more respectful and holistic way than we do today. One feature of vedic life - known as "yagya" - comprised performances conducted to correct the imbalances of nature. While I don't believe the gold offering is an official yagya ( in that it does not involve vedic recitation, etc. ) it was certainly a well recognized event per vedic texts.

In the case of Dr. Nader, he is respected as a pre-eminent vedic scientist - one whose vision and activities are capable of providing new direction for the world. The "weight in gold" performance will be conducted ( for the first time in the United States? ) this month. In fact, Dr. Nader is scheduled to receive twice his weight in gold.

Among his other achievements, Dr. Nader has re-discovered the connection between the organization of the literature of vedic science and the physiology of the human brain. This discovery is one of the cornerstones of vedic science and presages the unfolding of a vast spectrum of knowledge of natural law which will help to rebalance the world in coming centuries. Dr. Nader has already received his weight in gold once in Vlodrop, Holland, on {date: late 1997 / early 1998}

[While the former is accurate to the best of my knowledge - I *did* watch the ceremony live on the internet - the following is my speculation about the inherent nature of gold].

The role of gold in the upcoming offering is not accidental. The ceremony and its proper ingredients are mentioned in many places in the old literature. Gold is employed for its "shining" value. While this might seem obvious to many wearers of gold, the shining value is considered to entirely permeate the metal, as if it contained an inward, as well as a superficial value of light or reflection. This inner and outer shining value is likened to the quality of consciousness that members of vedic society experienced as an everyday reality. The qualities of gold and the qualities of human consciousness in vedic society not only had parallels, they enhanced each other. This is probably one of the fundamental reasons we still like to be near gold. Gold is precious for more than just its monetary value: properly understood, gold helps to enhance human consciousness; gold helps to bring enlightenment. When, as today, appreciation of the subtle properties of gold is lost completely, then world consciousness is at a very low ebb. A revival in appreciation for the subtle benefits of owning gold will come automatically as societal consciousness grows. The financial upheavals we see anticipated on this site may have a silver lining: they could contribute to a more inward-looking world, a world that will be more appreciative of inner/subjective technologies such as vedic science. At that time, everyone may want some gold not only for its financial value, but for its value to consciousness and the human physiology.

As soon as I know anything more about the gold presentation to Dr. Nader, I'll post it here. The words above are my own and are not borrowed from any official press release.

p.s. The main feature of the Holland ceremony was the weight in gold presentation. Subsequently, three other participants were given their weight in silver. All participants sat on one side of a large counterbalance-type scales. Kilo-denominated and fractional bars were gradually piled up on the other side of the scale until the pointer came to a central zero mark.

Go gold ( and silver! )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:15 - ID#431263)

BIG WINNER TODAY WAS LIHIR ( +16.8% ) and VENGOLD ( +10.67% ) !

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:16 - ID#218420)
Hup... two,three,four
Hup... two,three,four

The Americans are calling the financial tune and the whole world is marching to it. Even Gold falls into lock step. Dangerous times indeed, no wonder several posters have expressed that certain angst about today's
financial turn.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:20 - ID#359316)
The Machine
The great financial machine continues to chug away, yet its great
masters peer out through the glass of their lofty observation platforms
with deep creased frowns at the servants who scurry furiously
beneath. Assorted minions rush from one lever to another, making
swift adjustments! They scrutinize dials, tending the needles so
that they stay within the white and do not encroach upon the red.
Occasionally a minion will rush to a lever and shove it from
hard left to hard right, then peer back at a dial, and sigh
with relief as the needle edges back from the red zone.
Some white-coated attendants from time to time inject fluids into
access ports; while others at inbetween times strive equally hard
to drain liquids from other ports.
The machine has been making uneasy noises of late. In recent days
the vibrations have grown and the needles stray quicker to the red
zones. Thankfully, due to careful soundproofing and a well-decorated
front office, the unsuspecting customers continue to bring monies
to feed the colossus machine.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:22 - ID#45173)
Trinovant & GOLDEN CHEESHEAD: well, looks like I have my answer
The DOW did not move with the Nikkei today, at least not exactly. And at long last we seem to have our answer on gold during deflation/inflation. Deflationary trends were interrupted today and gold reversed its dreary dropping. Should inflation reverse again, it's a sure bet gold will drop again until it hits something really solid, like a banking crisis. Is money-supply induced inflation sustainable?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:25 - ID#218420)
Welcome to the club. Please take a seat beside ANOTHER.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:27 - ID#194311)
trinovant...nice analogy
and what about the unfortunate few minions who get their sleeves/ties caught in a gear wheel and dragged in helplessly to their financial deaths!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:33 - ID#220325)
I am trying to follow your advice.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:38 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:38 - ID#45173)
Once again proving that "The Invisible Hand"
is no match for "The Grabbing Hand."

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:42 - ID#343259)
I wonder if Dr. Nader will do a remote viewing of the steak house before weigh in?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:43 - ID#25171)
Is the "weight in gold " ceremony symbolic or does he keep the gold?
If he can keep the dough , please post for the benefit of KITCOITS the path to such enriching adulation.If I know in advance the day of the weighting , I will transgress my diet.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:46 - ID#359316)
kiwi: They shall be avenged!
For their brothers and sisters turn now, to the welcoming arms
of knights in golden armour, coming to their rescue as a
glint over the hill. Run now, brothers and sisters, before the
giants rush to rake over the smoking ruins of the machine! And
yes, small children should run and hide with what they have
when giants clash over scraps.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:51 - ID#45173)
trinovant: As in the 40,000 Nikkei in 1989
if one sees the US equities market through the images presented in 1000 financial industry newsletters and mainstream financial press articles, one sees the alluring image of a perpetual motion money-making machine. But when one looks at the numbers one sees that there's a man behind the curtain; The Machine turns out to be a 385,000,000 horsepower cash dispose-all.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:53 - ID#431263)
Yen must retrace into low 120's for today's action to convince the markets that the tide has truly turned longer term!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:59 - ID#288186)

(Wed Jun 17 1998 16:59 - ID#324266)
Nightwriter What a pity it is That the Pure and Perfect Law We should keep unstained, Is by men so frequently Made a source of worldly gain. Ji Chin Meditator Properly understood, gold helps to ward off poverty.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:02 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.07. The 50 day moving average is 30.01. In rise in gold almost exactly matched the rise in the Dow making today a "non-event" for the Dow/Gold Ratio.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:05 - ID#288186)
APH; Thanks for the info. I'll check Lind-online out... Silver looking good so far.
I'm still not sure how important the Warehouse stocks are but I'll post
them shortly. Fox-Man

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:07 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .240. The 50 day moving average is .270. My database contains 14 occasions where the XAU closed in the 70.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #11. The #1 ranking was on April 22, 1986, with a gold price of $346.80, an XAU of 70.87 producing a XAU/AU ratio of .204.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:08 - ID#288186)
Comex Warehouse stocks. Gold & Silver increased substantially...

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 17

Gold 1,024,782 + 8,408 troy ounces
Silver 87,557,197 + 1,736,992 troy ounces
Copper 73,400 - 1,339 short tons


(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:09 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.76. The 50 day moving average is 52.73

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:11 - ID#26793)
The following are all 50 day moving averages.
Spot gold = $300.45, spot silver = $5.73, XAU = 81.22

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:17 - ID#45173)
Donald: Thank you for your diligent posting of always relevant info
Do you anticipate events that may cause an abrupt change in the DOW/Gold ratio? What might the events be? What will the change mean?

My understanding is that if gold breaks up away from the DOW, this is a leading indicator of long-term inflation, but I may be misinformed.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:17 - ID#390415)
Thanks Donald
For the XAU/Gold comparison.

Today was one of the worst days for gold stocks relative to bullion in recent memory.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:20 - ID#20748)
Comments on Clinton trip to China
Lifted from Avid.

the chinese have shown what the japanese have known for a long time: they can tell the americans to stuff it, with impunity. think about clinton's trip to china and the hypocrisy and humiliation for the united states. he bashed bush mercilessly and successfully in the campaign on weakness toward china. money flowed. now clinton will be at a ceremony, planned by the chinese, overlooking T square.

perhaps summers will come back, waving a piece of paper, and saying "economic peace in our time." he could hide his scars under a raincoat or something.

Rubin is still da man. Don't listen to what I say, watch what I do...

CNBC sited Rubin is ready to intervene more. Japanese folks are ruthless I am beginning to discover. Either way they win. No intervention cash in the bondos, no intervention we will do it to keep it going. After all the Woodman's election depends on it.

thoughts on the intervention: a couple of days ago the union folks and business groups started calling for it. with clinton's trip to china coming soon, i suspect everyone knew it would come pretty
soon. it was based on politics, not economics. i wonder if it was directed by clinton, himself. i wonder if that is why it was announced, so they could show clinton and the trade unions, okay, we are doing it. send us the money. and, i wonder what rubin really thinks about it. oh, yes. where is the rest of the world?

yes. after the chinese statement this morning, i suppose the treasury folks didn't need coffee.

kinda has that clinton stink to it eh!

yep! and this aisn't an s&l in arkansas. i'll bet rubin was against it. it blows our leverage with the japanese. it was all political. i bet he resigns very soon.

he = Rubin? God look out below if so!

bold words Rubin resigns!!! over currency matters???

after the monica thing broke, it was widely rumored that rubin was set to resign then. i think they talked him into waiting. he may be one of the few people with decency left in washington. his resignation, itself, would not really change anything, except to point out that unwise decisions are being made.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:22 - ID#258142)
Silver goes up
Here is a repost of my yesterday's message

Date: Tue Jun 16 1998 17:16
Delphi ( Silver goes up ) ID#258142:
I was experimenting with time series approximation by linear segments. I used silver data and minimize maximum distance between observations and lines and while adding break points. The result is ( IMHO ) interesting: patterns are pretty close to Elliot wave theory, segments length - almost fibonacci. In attached chart: impulsive wave up ( segments A-B-C-D-E ) , then correction ( a-b-c-d ) then side waves ( d-e ) before turning up. If this chart is right, correction is over and silver will go up soon.
PS Chart is small - only 10Kb
(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:29 - ID#434108)
attempt at 'timing', & attempt to attach a chart: Gold & Commercials/Commitment of Traders
One of the most important relationships to watch, for timing, is the price vs ( -compared to ) Commercials/Commitment of Traders.

When gold, or whatever "commodity"/investment is price-compared

to it's Commitment of Traders patterns - specifically to it's

COT/Commercials pattern, there are, often ( -tho not always )

good timing signals, thus provided.

When any commodity's price keeps falling - weekly/monthly,

but on a lower and lower value of net buying/longs, by the

Commercials/COT: then, this is often indicative of

buying-pressure, that is building... -- A bull-market,

or a bullish trade - is very likely setting-up/in-the-making.


Cotton, since last quarter of '97.

Treasury-Notes - just recently.

Gold - since June '97.

( The converse/opposite of these examples/patterns, are bearish. )

I will attempt to attach gold & COT/Commercials chart here.

If it does not transfer, feel free to e-mail me, especially if you can asssit/advise me as to how to attach my charts/images/graphs, from kitco/psting. Thanks.

Also, you can contact Pinnacle Data Corp., or

Commodity Trend Service, and others, for this kind of data,

and charts.


David Blair Macrory


I have not been successful at figuring out how to attach

my charts, here.

My interpretation of data updated thru early May ( -COT ) ,

is that Gold is - PERHAPS - building a bullish bottom/case.

Cotton did, and T-Notes did -- at leasst for a profitable

bullish trade.

Sometimes these patterns/relationships, are short-term signals,

sometimes they occur at major turning-points.

My best 2-cents guess for gold, is:

COT/Commercials pattern, thru early May, is building a very bullish pattern.

BUT, today's 6/17 gold mining-stocks' action -- vol. & prices --

were lack-luster or anemic, at best.... especially

with a $5.00 jump in gold prices, today, 6/17/98.

We must have a strong showing tomorrow, in volume numbers,

& price advances in the gold stocks/XAU, in order for

this gold-bull move to be any thing real/sustainable,

at this particular moment in time.

Otherwise, another downside sell-off/test is likely.....very likely.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:40 - ID#26793)
@EJ, Nightwriter
I have been following the 233 day moving average of the D/G Ratio. It gave some advance warning in 1929 and in 1987. The closest we came was during the October 27, 1997, drop. On that day we fell to the 144 day level but did not penetrate. We are close to breaking the 50 day average now. If we do I will switch over to posting the 144 day M/A daily.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:43 - ID#57232)
Peace in Kosovo?
I though Milosovic and Yeltsin had a peace agreement. Didn't last very long, did it? Looks like the next move is up to NATO.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:45 - ID#410215)
..... Dollar/Yen .....

Yen go up

Metals go up

Particularly PGMs

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:46 - ID#434108)
Delphi _ How do you attach those charts?
I have numerous charts that I'd like to post at kitco, and send via e-mails. I'm using Wi. '95, and have a "clipboard". How do I get them transferred/attached to kitco, or to e-mails.

Many thanks.

kitco says to use "ctrl-v"
but nothing happpens....

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:48 - ID#45173)
US inflation goes up, dollar goes down, yen goes up, PMs go up? Ain't this the old formula?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:55 - ID#377196)
Japanese Yen... if this currency is indeed a problem, then why didn't they
come HERE?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:58 - ID#26793)
Derivative news for today. Should we take a body count?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 17:59 - ID#43460)
Asia Crisis, y2k, vote to abolish IRS
From Yahoo, three URLs of interest to goldbugs. I for one wonder about what they will replace the IRS with. Perhaps they'll hire the sheriff of Nottingham to just squeeze the peasants?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:01 - ID#227238)
Goldfever: 1. Upload them, one at a time, to Kitco's holding file.

1a. The url is:
1b. When there, select UPLOAD FILE from the FILE pulldown at the top of your ( netscape ) browser screen.
1c. Follow the upload screens to transfer files to Kitco.

2. Once uploaded to Kitco, you can use them in a post by typing in the file name in the red section of this posting mechanism.

3. When composing a post around a graphic, it's wise to use preview before posting to make sure all is in order.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:03 - ID#26793)
A "whole raft of countries" discuss regulating trading on the internet.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:09 - ID#190411)
Does Dr. Nader get weighed nekkid, or can he wear clothing suited to a radiologist. ..Polishing my lead boots- they're hightops.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:13 - ID#258142)
Was about to write instruction, but Earl already did.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:18 - ID#377196)
Japanese Yen... I'll answer my own 17:55 post. The reason the Japanese
are not coming here is that the yen tripled in value against the

dollar between 1985 and 1995, and has only now retrenched to the

level of a "respectable gain".

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:38 - ID#252197)
the grandest cycle of all
crazytimes: When my great granddad was 93 years

old he said "I'm a male who was a man once and a

child twice." At the time, he was diapered,

spooned fed, and helped to walk, but he was a

jolly man of wisdom up through the time he passed


This fate awaits us all. It's not to be dreaded,

but fully accepted. It's the grand cycle of

human nature. It can be a glorious and precious

experience if the heart is open and the mind is


Life is a golden experience, enjoy it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:40 - ID#410215)

EJ -

Yes, tis the same

But the effect is more immediate

Like, NOW!

Nicodemus -

Bart has historical carts you can access through the price page. Try COMEX home page. Better yet, draw a line that descends at about a 45% angle. That is the summary for gold for the last 2 years.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:40 - ID#244446)
When (and if) the boomers buy gold:
This is what Alan Simpson, not the senator, said about y2k

" of the things Ed Yardeni said is we've got to panic the people. I disagree there. We have the babyboomers. Never before in the media have we had the situation where you have a group of -- a public that moves and thinks as one. When the babyboomers decide to get yuppy, four-wheel drive vehicles, everyone gets yuppy, four-wheel drive vehicles. Why you need a four-wheel drive vehicle in Manhattan, I don't know.
They buy them. If we go now and panic everyone, this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy."

[note: maybe this herd mentality of the boomers will also apply to the decision to buy gold, somewhere down the line. Likewise, it could also affect the severity of bank runs, if the boomers act as a herd.]
The entire transcript to the recent y2k conference shown on CSPAN is available online at
(Wed Jun 17 1998 18:55 - ID#434108)
Earl & Delphi 'Upload File", and the response is "file cannot be found"
The file name is : " Gold&ComCOT.bmp "

I just want to paste it/transfer it, to a kitco post,
or an e-mail.

Still no luck.

Thanks anyway.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:01 - ID#410215)
..... Picture Woes .....

Goldfever -

I don't think it will take BMPs. I tried it once and it wouldn't work. Try switching the format to JPG, that should do it.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:02 - ID#20767)
The 'bailout'
Could it be that Japan finally sold USTs en masse, and allowed the U.S. to save face?
(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:02 - ID#434108)
current 2 cents
Mining shares were anemic today. They must perform better tomorrow, or this gold "rally" is very likely, nothing but a false start.

Commitment of Traders patterns since last summer, for gold,
suggest/confirm.... that a a new bull market is in the making.
But this is not a short-term timing indicator.

If mining shares do not perform better tomorrow, than they
did today, then MOST LIKELY, there is at least one more
down-side sell-off/test .... for the metals.

Best Regards,
David Blair Macrory

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:04 - ID#45173)
RJ: Is this inflation sustainable?
Other questions:

- Are we now in the transition phase between growth/deflation and stagflation?

- Are the equities markets now luffing, the DOW flapping between 8500 - 8900, the Nikkei between 14500 - 15000 as the global inflation wind changes direction?

- Can CBs affect continued, controlled inflation growth when the money supply is already topped out, the debt component enormous ( can asset growth stay ahead of liabilities ) ?

- When will we know that the wind has changed direction? When the DOW/Gold ratio hits the 233 average?

So many questions, so little time...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:05 - ID#434108)
"Yuan vs Yen" (via ccnfn/Reuters - Beijing)
BEIJING ( Reuters ) - China might be forced to
consider a devaluation of the yuan if the sliding
Japanese yen led to a plunge in Chinese exports,
vice-minister of trade Sun Zhenyu said on
"If the change in the exchange rate puts large
pressure on foreign trade and exports, or if there is a
large fall in foreign trade and exports, then I am
afraid we may have to consider the question of
whether to make adjustments," Sun said in response
to a question about how far the yen would have to
plunge before China would feel the need to devalue
its own currency.
"Until now, the Chinese government is still firm on
not devaluing the yuan," Sun said. "But if the
Japanese yen continues to depreciate, this would put
increasing pressure on China."
He said Chinese exports of textiles, food and
industrial products had been hurt particularly badly.
"Japan is our largest export market, our largest
trading partner, that's why the Japanese yen's
large-scale depreciation has had major negative
effects on Chinese exports," he said.
It was the first time a senior Chinese official had
commented openly and in specific terms about the
possibility of currency devaluation.
On Tuesday, finance minister Xiang Huaicheng
warned that the yuan could be undermined if China
missed its 8.0 percent growth target this year.
"Whether or not the economic growth target can
be realized not only will affect China's already
extremely serious unemployment situation and
increase pressure on the stability of the renminbi
( yuan ) , but it will also affect state enterprise reform,"
Xiang said in an article published in the People's
A devaluation of the yuan would be likely to kick
away the peg that links the Hong Kong dollar to the
U.S. dollar and possibly set off a vicious new round
of currency devaluation throughout Asia.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:05 - ID#401460)

YES, Boomers and Gold, as I have posted several times before that is what I am betting on.

Remember the first wave boomers already appreciate Gold and have owned it before.

Gold's action durring the last week and over the last 48 hours is reassuring. Reassuring that certain traditional economic relationships still exist.

We have entered the next phase, trying to print our way out of a mess. The US has been printing for some time, now the US is printing to buy Yen, on the condition that the Japanese print Yen to stimulate their economy. The only people talking positive about these moves are the liberal Clinton people, who hide under many names. Other then them, very few are talking at all...except to say this will only be temporary.

"Interventions hardly ever work, Central Banks are not big enough to handle this problem. they have tried this many times before and it never works"
Bartin Biggs @ Morgan Stanley Dean Witter

Therefore, as per text book, hyperinflation next.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:06 - ID#252150)
Rubin tapdanced all over the JY bears & his steel toe & heel caps left ugly red welts all over their silly faces. Don't those turkeys understand doublespeak? What could be more explicit than...WE WON'T INTERVENE.

Off to the bar to drink a toast to the master obfuscator.
(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:07 - ID#434108)
my prvious post re: Yuan & Yen, from cnnfn at:

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:09 - ID#252150)
A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:12 - ID#410215)
..... Answers... In order asked .....

EJ -

( What inflation? )

1. I dont think so.

2. No. There is still room at the top, albeit not much.

3. Depends entirely on public perception.

4. I dont believe a Dow / gold ratio tells us anything but numbers.

As for time, I agree. Not nearly the amount needed to do enough stuff.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:14 - ID#252150)
Winston@Why do you need a 4 wheel drive in Manhattan?
Much easier to drive over the disadvantaged & homeless when they start rioting in the streets & try to block escape routs.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:22 - ID#287367)
@ Goldfevr
If you don;t know how to change format ( from bmp to jpg or gif ) , attach your chart/graph to an email, and I can change it for you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:27 - ID#45173)
RJ: clarification re "What Inflation?"
Inflation as in "US inflation goes up, dollar goes down, yen goes up, PMs go up?" and your response "NOW!"

Mr. Mick
(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:27 - ID#345321)
RR vs. AG, Round 1.....................................
Wednesday June 17, 7:05 pm Eastern Time

Greenspan, Rubin air financial reform differences

By Joanne Morrison

WASHINGTON, June 17 ( Reuters ) - Chances of financial services reform legislation this year
dimmed as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin aired
their fundamental differences before Congress Wednesday.

At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, the two senior officials refused to give ground on the
appropriate structure for new conglomerates that will mix banking with insurance and other financial

Greenspan favored the approach of legislation that narrowly passed the House of Representative last
month that would place non-traditional banking activities in bank holding company affiliates.

But Rubin said financial services companies should be allowed to choose between that structure and
organizing other financial businesses as direct subsidiaries of a bank.

The type of structure was a matter of management preference at many banks, he said. At smaller
community banks the extra cost of structuring as a holding company was a concern.

But Greenspan said banks were acutely aware of the special advantages of conducting
non-traditional activities within the bank company. ``I submit to you that the issue of choice is a
phoney issue,'' the Fed chief said, dropping his usual reserve.

Several Senators expressed concern that the momentum created by the House bill to dismantle
depression-era banking laws would founder because Rubin and Greenspan could not settle their

``It's really unacceptable to think that two of the world's premier experts in this area cannot come
together and forge a compromise,'' said committee Chairman Sen. Alfonse D'Amato.

Even so, the New York Republican admitted forging a bill would be difficult because of the limited
time left this year in the legislative session.

Greenspan warned the committee that the subsidiary structure could expand the taxpayer-financed
safety net for insured deposits at banks.

Rubin disagreed and suggested the committee refer the matter to legal counsel for an opinion. ``I
think that no matter how large the loss is in the subsidiary it will have no more effect ... on the bank
itself anymore than it would be ( with ) an affiliate,'' the Treasury Secretary said.

Greenspan also said banks would also have an unfair advantage over other financial firms because
non-bank activities conducted within a bank enjoyed a cheaper cost of capital due to the implied
security of deposit insurance.

But Rubin painted the House legislation as favoring insurance companies over banks. He also
repeated his concerns that that the Treasury would lose its power to set bank regulation under the
House version of reform legislation.

``It is essential that any elected administration have a voice in this important area of economic policy,
and that they be held accountable to the public,'' he said.

Rubin described the House version was ``badly flawed'' and signaled the Clinton Administration
would not mind if no law passed this year.

``I think it's important but not urgent. I think the key is to try to get it right,'' Rubin said. He said the
legislation would effectively become the constitution for the financial industry for a long time to come.

Asked about the effect of a delay on international competitiveness Rubin said: ``I predict that you'll
wind up with a better bill and that our industry will be stronger two years from today than it is today,
internationally, whether the bill is done today or two years from now.''

(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:40 - ID#317193)
Walk in the paw prints of a short person. Yes?
James...currency intervention only is effective short term. To China and back?

Gold...up on a lower US$. Not for long.

Currency crisis...ongoing. US$ going up...what floor...going down...what floor.

Danger, warning Will Robinson.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:46 - ID#210235)
@James - yr. 19:06
tap tap squish. yessir! LOL

Crystal Ball
(Wed Jun 17 1998 19:53 - ID#287367)
Anybody want to see charts re: how coins have done since 1970? Also segments of the coin market, i.e.- generic gold, mint state gold, gold & silver commemoratives, 20th Century, Type coins, proof coins, key dates and rarities... Commems seem a bargain at under 20% of 1989 highs>

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:00 - ID#317193)
Who do you trust?
When all other currencies are suspect the world will trust the almighty US$.

When the almighty US$ can not be trusted I suggest that gold better be one of your assets.

Anybody know how to time this sh*t? I'm just guessing. Can you trust a currency when there is currency intervention?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:00 - ID#248180)
BIS buying GOLD? ANOTHER Thinks - YES
6/17/98 Friend of ANOTHER


Another believes the BIS has actually entered the gold physical market. It was purchased through a Euro bank, not UBS and is continuing. It is not for the account of any country, but for BIS capital. They may announce this outright through the news services before he can write next week? My understanding is it was not for Japan! They were used as a diversion. For what purpose, I do not know? It could be they see the banks in Japan are about to fall under the capitol ratio rules as their market and economy takes a hit? The BIS may need the gold to cover any unpaid GF ( gold Franc ) reserve capitol due from BOJ? This is most likely the reason. Besides, during a crisis, it will be to late to patch up reserve ratios. If Asia falls before the Euro is in effect, Jan 1, it will take oil down with it in currency terms, along with an ensuing major reallocation of assets into gold.

This could get very intriguing!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:04 - ID#28781)
Dr. Mark Faber

I listened to a tape by Dr. Faber of Monday, including people from all over the world asking questions about the Far East. One question in particular was striking in it's timing because of what we have witnessed in the last couple of days. An economist asked what the short-term prospects were for the yen? ( Things looked dark at the time ) . His response was that he that the Yen was within days of putting in a "spike" low or V bottom, similar and opposite of course, to what occurred in April of 1995.

He thought the best way for the BOJ to handle the situation now would be to raise interest rates.
(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:10 - ID#434108)
Kosovo & the Muslim world -- the fuse continues to burn....shorter
In several previous posts, I have referred to the 'burning fuse' of Kosovo.

Serbia's modern-day Hitler defies NATO, keeping his troops

in Kosovo,


the EU's ambivalence on Turkey,


or at least 'inches' ....

the Balkans, and Europe/Russia

and then the entire world

a little further along

toward the end

of the burning fuse .........

( ( ) )


the Balkans

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:14 - ID#368244)
Gold up $1.40----- August

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:15 - ID#45173)
Lowered Q2 EPS reports will accelerate this week and next
Stratus sees lower Q2 amid Asian turmoil

I used to work for these guys. They are heavy into financial services and telecom, do a fair amount of biz in Asia. They've been kickin' butt for years.

Sales are now slower in the US and Asia for many American corporations. Revenues and earnings are down. This is a reversal of a long growth trend. The stock market will continue to process these reports throughout the next few weeks. Few now believe we'll be at 10,000 by year end as everyone in the market believed three months ago. At some point soon, investors will pull the bets they've placed on higher future earnings. This week? Next week? Next month?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:16 - ID#342376)
@ TYoung
That's a good point. If you have a currency crisis already, then government intervention, it seems it only adds to the crisis. Where do you put your money? It seems to me this would only speed up money being transfered around the globe. It could get so tiring that people might eventually park it in PM's no? The failure of the Gold Stocks to rally today when the DOW, S$P and Nasdaq had a good show may show that the only people left in gold stocks are people that still believe in gold but are cautious about the latest rise in POG. Gold stocks may be more resilient if the POG goes down also.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:19 - ID#28781)

I believe Dr. Faber resides in Hong Kong and writes a newsletter titled something like "Doom, Gloom, and Boom Report" Has anybody read the letter?

Crystal Ball
(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:23 - ID#287367)
@ Goldfevr
If you're still interested, check your email for guidance on transferring your files

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:24 - ID#43349)
fruits revisited
My wife had a quintuple bypass ( heart ) operation and is doing well.
Thank you to all wellwishers.

As anticipated, the US stepped in to aid Japan to relieve the yen/gold
situation rather than reap the fruits of continueing it's laisez faire
stance. This, of course has a bullish effect on stock and precious
metal prices.

Stock prices have yet to feel the brunt of the slowing economy and it
remains to be seen if the stock market can be sustained.

Whether the positve moves in oil, gold, silver, and other commodites will prove to be a long term turning point or just another short term
rally will depend upon how the markets view the strength of the resolve
of the US in defending the yen. Obviously Japan can not go it alone.

One factor in the strength of resolve might be what appear to be cracks
in the relaitionship between the Fed and the Treasury. Rubin and Greenspan do not appear to be going out of their way to present a
united front on all issues which leads onr to speculate as to how deep
the waters of ill will might run.

As mentioned before, the events of this week and next are going to be
very significant in determining th course of future developments. We
are encouraged but still wait to be entirely convinced. Silver should
respond very positvely if the markets come to believe in the turning of the dollar, with gold not too far behind.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:31 - ID#223391)
Our thoughts and best wishes are with you. A quint? That's pretty special. The best I know personally had a triple. Complete recovery. Yes.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:32 - ID#248180)
Currency Manipulation
T Young: Can you trust a currency and INTERVENTION? Excellent insight.
All of Asia know understands the "conflict of interest" that intervention or manipulation presents to a Country and its' currency in this present system. The present currency trading/speculation system has, is and will be the ruination of many Countries.
Nice talking with you people - got to run now bye. JR

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:32 - ID#288295)
Oh my! Nikkei going up like a rocket!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:33 - ID#248180)
@ Please proof it!
NOW Knows

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:33 - ID#174103)
The Name of the Bond
I'm flummoxed. The BOJ, with $200 billion in dollar reserves, responds to currency intervention by the US, a country with a current account deficit of $130 billion a year and rising.

Good will gesture towards China? Shaking down whoever bought bonds in the past week? Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic? Blowing into the monetary vacuum?

I just don't get it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:33 - ID#174103)
The Name of the Bond
I'm flummoxed. The BOJ, with $200 billion in dollar reserves, responds to currency intervention by the US, a country with a current account deficit of $130 billion a year and rising.

Good will gesture towards China? Shaking down whoever bought bonds in the past week? Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic? Blowing into the monetary vacuum?

I just don't get it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:34 - ID#368244)
August Gold up $2.40

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:34 - ID#223391)
oh oh. Looks like a bear market rally.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:35 - ID#255190)
I just tried to access August23, 1998 for a little peek ahead to see what we're in for and I couldn't get anything. I think your time advancer must be broken again. Could ya work on that for us. Thanks!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:35 - ID#43349)
She might have gotten by with just a triple, but It's better that they
did a quint. The more healthy new circulayion the better.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:36 - ID#288295)
Dr.Faber also wrote for Strategic Investment newsletter ( perhaps still does ) under a column entitled 'Dr.Doom'. His Nikkei timing model forecasted 7000 more than a year ago. Just proves he's no better at timing this madness than the rest of us.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:37 - ID#340302)
@GOLLUM...wishing your wife well...
...and better times ahead for both of you.

Yes, I agree...the rift between Rubin and Greenspan does not bode well for American economic policy. Moreover, it completely invalidates the myth of the "Jew Boy Club" ( as discussed yesterday ) .



(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:38 - ID#255190)
Settling in for the uptrend
I'm just wondering if Kitco snit-fits are a predictive indicator of uptrend for our precious. Or possibly causal. What think ye? Possibly a little bit of refinement, but all in all a potent means.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:40 - ID#43349)
The difference, of course, is that the US owns the stuff and "the stuff"
is looked on as being solid because of the US economy. Even with $200
billion in reserves th BOJ could become exhausted puring it down a black
hole, The US, if need be, can print all it wants ( this is oversimplifying
I am sure, but you get the idea ) .

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:40 - ID#401460)
Allen(USA) (Bart)

Time Advance Market Check ....sounds like this may be of some help. What is the URL?

I am interested in where Gold will be on St Patrick's Day 1999.....before noon.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:45 - ID#360150)
August Futures
..up 1.60.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:46 - ID#43349)
I wasn't having any trouble with the time advanced screen. Or at least
I wasn't until I tried advancing to beyond the end of 1999, and now there's smoke coming from somewhere and nothing seems to work right.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:50 - ID#401460)

Sounds like things went well with your wife, God bless. You are correct, it is good to be thankful, the fact that they were able to operate on her heart at all is a very good sign. My father found out when he was in his 50s that his arteries were so bad that hey could not operate on him - he lived with that fear for another 30 years.

You both take care,


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:51 - ID#28781)
@Silverbaron -- Thanks

Another well-known prognosticator who has been bearish for some time on stocks and bonds is Prechter. He recently called for the T-bonds to drop in yield to the 5.65% level. 5.59% was hit on Friday or Monday I believe.

I've done some work on Bonds and gold and there is a fairly reliable inverse relationship between the two. Isn't it interesting that gold accelerated to the downside in March-April of last year exactly when bonds last put in a significant bottom and took off, basically on a 15 month rise.

If the game is up on the currency then bonds should evenually break the 6.00-6.10% range that has been resistance in the past. Should be good news for gold.

Prechter by the way has a minimum target for gold of 200, with 110 as maximum downside. That should get everyone excited.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:51 - ID#255190)
Our best to Gollum and lovely wife.
Though I'm sure she's not feeling to lovely just this minute. May God bless you two with many more years of shineshine and happiness! These moments we have together, to love and to cherish, seem to slip away to quickly. In one moment we clearly see our treasured ones. From that time onward they are ever before our heart's eyes.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:52 - ID#401460)
Gollum (@Allen(USA))

Come on! Where is this time advance screen?

Just some help with tomorrow.......... PLEASE!


(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:52 - ID#426265)
Palledium up 21$ today. Just think it may happen to gold too.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:53 - ID#43349)
And of course, their procedures are much more advanced now than they were
many years ago. If you are going to have a medical problem it pays to put
it off until they know how to deal with it.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:53 - ID#210114)
Wishing you the best of goodbyes.......

New York--Jun 17--Gold and silver futures rallied sharply after the US
dollar took a dive against the yen amid FX market intervention. It was the
Federal Reserve's first such action in several years. Aug gold advanced
1.7% and Jly silver 3.5%. Copper also reacted to the currency reversal and
a whiff of hope about Asian demand, with Jly up 1.8%. A drop in LME stocks
helped. By Melanie Lovatt, Darcy Keith, Bridge News, Stories .2333, .2100

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:54 - ID#286234)
I see a lot of folks online so I'll open the bar for a few hours while I take a nap. I'll need the computer back later tonight. Till then, have fun. :- )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:54 - ID#159145)
aisia gold
Asia gold up to $295.00. Defaluation of US dollar has certainly pushed the Nikki and the Metals.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:56 - ID#7568)

Gold is up another 2.00 from the close on the back of some decent buying coming out of Japan and some short covering here in the US. Last I checked we were around the 296 level. Two or three more dollars and the fun will really begin.

Last time we ran up the ECB announcement quashed the rally within a dollar of where some major stops would have been hit. We shall see if the ursine crowd is as lucky the second go round.

Silver is dead quiet, but if gold reaches the magic numbers there is little doubt silver will run right along. The silver magic numbers are probably 30 cents from here.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 20:58 - ID#255190)
Time advance feature has been deactived for refueling
The antimatter reactor vessel also needed some repair. Possibly this is were the smoke came from, Gollum. Bart says that it may be a month or more before the thing is back on line again. Angst, of course!

Unfortunately the reactor vessel was made in the USA were micronuclear wavetronics hasn't quite kept up with state of the art technologies. Abit of rework in order there, and possibly a replacement in a year or two.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:00 - ID#255190)
Nite All
Gotta keep healthy. Get yer rest Lads and Lassies. We've got a wild ride ahead of us.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:01 - ID#210114)
What happened to the spot price grpahs????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:01 - ID#253246)
Sojourn marc faber


About 3 or 4 times a week I receive some garbage about some
newsletter writer who can predict the next rise in gold or silver. Faber
is just as wrong as any of the the others.

The wallstreet underground ( nick g ) is calling for $10 silver by summer,
$20 silver by the end of the year. He only has a few days to go but
he didn't say what year.

Mr "T" knows more about gold than about 99% of the gold newsletter

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:02 - ID#426265)
Let us hope that the gap or gaps will become breakaway gaps and never will be filled.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:03 - ID#43349)
There may be a small ( ? ) y2k problem too. Looks like most of the wave
functions collapsed due to an embedded chip freezing up.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:05 - ID#255190)
A day late and a dollar short AGAIN, eh? We'll let you know when she's working again so it won't happen again, OK?! Sorry, old chap.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:05 - ID#28781)
@Bufford, thanks for your input

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:06 - ID#43349)
Precious metals stocks as a group tend to lag the metals themselves. When
metals were falling, the stocks held up....for a while. Now that the metals are rising the stocks won't be far behind.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:07 - ID#255151)

I saw the same thing when advancing Kitco to
'00. I did manage to glimpse the following
post-- Date January 03, 1900 21:53 Nick @ C ID#474878 "Sold half my Gold positions when it dipped below $30,000. Thinking about selling New Zealand tomorrow."

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:08 - ID#401460)
pdeep (The Name of the Bond)

You are correct. How can they continue to print and bail out everyone when the US is up to it's eyeballs in debt? Japan is suppose to have all of the money/bonds?

I think those in the know ( other then the Clinton idiots ) know that the party is over.

They can only fake their way out of trouble so many times.

Contrary to recent reports Absolute Truth still exists. We, as a society, have just chosen to ignore it or to forget it. This does not mean that Absolute Truth does not still exist.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:11 - ID#427357)
GOLD UP 2.20 TO 297.10

In late trading GOLD continues to surge - 297.10

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:13 - ID#29048)
$50 dollar up move...

Bill Murphy's latest

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:19 - ID#401460)

Thanks a Heap! Oh Well

It really can't help me anyway, I am out of funds until Gold comes back a little. I would only get more frustrated. Maybe it is better I can't see the future.

Wait a minute....I like Japan just found another credit card! HAH!! Who will last the longest, Japan or the US.......CHINA?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:20 - ID#28781)
A move above 298 would break the downtrend from April

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:27 - ID#401460)
Gold ( CMX )

Silver ( CMX )

Copper ( CMX )

Nice for a change huh!


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:30 - ID#159145)
Asia Gold
Spot @ $295.20

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:32 - ID#45173)
Holy cow, look at the crazy Nikkei go! Up 620.83. Yeeeehaaaa!
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...9:30PM...15336.21...+620.83...+4.22%

The DOW up tomorrow, what... 400? Big positive moves on short-term good news.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:32 - ID#401460)
Kitco Asian Gold and other misc. metals of some value and etc.

June 17, 1998
6:52PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:34 - ID#401460)
August Gold
July Silver
July High Grade Copper
July Platinum
September Palladium
July Crude Oil Light


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:34 - ID#43349)
The elves tell me a ton of shorts got caught with their pants down this
morning and have been waiting for the overnight market to try and work
things down so they can extricate themselves gracefully. Meanwhile the
sharks have caught the scent of blood....

Why don't the damn charts work when all the good stuff is happening? It's
going to a boxing match and bring allowed to look only when they are
seated in their respective corners.

Dave in CO
(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:34 - ID#229103)
@Gollum, Highrise
My father-in-law had a similar 30 years. Through exercise, he was able to get strong enough ( cardiologist said the capillaries took over the work of the arteries ) , to have the surgery at around age 60, then lived past 80. God bless you, Mr. and Mrs. Gollum.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:35 - ID#43349)
@Dave in CO
Thank you, and may the Lotd bless you in kind.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:38 - ID#393224)
G'day Auric
Love it, mate.

Date: Wed Jun 17 1998 21:07
Auric ( Gollum ) ID#255151:

I saw the same thing when advancing Kitco to
'00. I did manage to glimpse the following
post-- Date January 03, 1900 21:53 Nick @ C ID#474878 "Sold half my Gold positions when it dipped below
$30,000. Thinking about selling New Zealand tomorrow."

Am in the process of buying New Zealand right now. It is going very cheaply, but I can afford it with what I made on the A$ and Au overnight!! cheers, Nick the 1st ( King of N.Z. ) --will have to put up with stroppy subjects, like Auracious. Maybe a chain gang?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:38 - ID#43349)
Now, EJ, there you go again pre anticipating the DOW again. It will most
likely be down 50 ( -49.85 ) .

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:40 - ID#208393)
Yes, very nice for a change, BUT....I'll still strap on my golden jewel protector for tomorrows action. The purple welts from previous beatings are still showing. You never know when they're going to yell "ABOUT TURN" these days. The more a system in motion loses its momentum, the more it gyrates. Take care all & good luck.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:42 - ID#284255)
All is well - not
India up 7.6%
Philippines up 5.55%
S Korea up 5.26%
Malaysia up 4.94%
Singapore up 4.11%
Japan up 4.09%

Europe averaged 2.5% gains

Crazyness and excessively dangerous.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:45 - ID#254311)
Bill Murphy from SI


I am using your post to present something that may be of interest.

While I am pounding the table that a $50 move up in gold is

probably in the works, nobody cares. The performance of the gold

stocks today was a pathetic response to a $5 move. It appears to us

that most participants in this sector are dead, therefore, no

response. Dead people can do nothing with good news. This make

the set up for a big move even more likely.

Not to boast, but I do not know of anyone else that made the Yen

call that Frank Veneroso made, and did it in advance to all of our

clients. And most important, he gave the logic of why it should


On TV today and in all the printed reports we received, I could not

find one "analyst or commentator that said what was done today

would last. Pablem response about intervention and Tokyo has to

x, y, and z. It was VERY CLEAR that everyone was taken by such

surprise that they were talking their own book and positions. The

hedge funds and big Wall Street trading houses had not had time to

assess this surprise development, and did not want to talk publicly

against their own positions ( the massive deflationary trade of

short commodities, long bonds, short gold, short yen etc ) . This is a

big deal. The response of the stock market says our people like

this. Asia likes this. Europe likes . BIg trading houses and the

hedge fund wolves are caught going the wrong way. The do not

like this.

I hope I am right, but gold could fly. Today's volume was

mediocre, no panic by the massive spec shorts. With the big

central bank selling

over, or coming to an end, what looks like a big central bank buyer

taking on the spec shorts, and with shorts in complacent

abundance, we have a set up for some fireworks.

Good night,


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:47 - ID#401460)
Ying Yang Yen & Dollar

The dollar bought 135.72 yen in early trading, down 6.28 yen from 142.00 yen late Wednesday in Tokyo and also below its late New York rate of 136.37 yen.

Does this really work this well?

Who did we buy all of the Yen from, Japan?

So now they not only have billons in US Bonds but the also have billions in US $.

I guess it is ok, as long as Gold goes up...right?


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:47 - ID#45173)
Gollum: great to have you back. Glad to hear your wife's recovering well
I haven't had the stomach to play the DOW for the past few months, except for a few alpha-ish stocks ( e.g., MDEA trading at 2/3 its cash value, Royal Dutch Petrol, and coupla others ) . So it's fun to guess what the DOW thingy's gonna do, even if I don't have a stake in it. Judging by my track record the last few weeks, this is a good thing.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:53 - ID#374204)
Robert Rubin & Klintonistas-How DUMB do you think Tokyo is ?
Just got home and CBS news was on. Featuring Robert Rubin
explaining to us moron plebians that US economy is linked
to the world economy nowadays, and that D.C. must now support
the yen.

Did I miss something here ??? About a week ago, did not
this same Rubin said that D.C. would allow the yen to go
Due South?

May I advise all of those in the current administration.

NEVER play 5-card stud.

P.S. - GM strike rippling according to the Classic Scenario.
UAW knows GM has a pair of deuces, but also realizes
that too high a raise can screw everyone, including UAW.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:56 - ID#43349)
I would imagine we bought yen from any and all traders on the open market who wanted to sell. Simply trading some of BOJ Yen reserves for dollar
reserves would not be so effective.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:57 - ID#45173)
HighRise: So what happens now? The Yen shorts run away with their tails
between their legs? For how long? The crisis is averted for now, the stock market celebrates with a big rally, but scent of weakness lingers.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:57 - ID#288399)
Rubin, our chief dollar alchemist
Has anyone noticed that lately Rubin is gray -- not just his hair. His skin. Do you think he's ill?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:58 - ID#376309)
Some More
Well my opinion may not be doing to go but......

This move reminds me of the move in Oct. If I remember correctly Dec gold closed at $330.40 that day and at 7:57am someone came and bought alot of gold. We open several dollar higher and the move pushed us up $10 in two days. I think that the same may happen again. Of cource at the end of the $10 move one should have been short because gold fell hard. Some very large trader knew exactly where all the stops were and moved gold to stop everyone out and 'if' I'm right they sold there long position to the funds covering there shorts and thus took profits. OI went down yesterday. I bet it went down alot today. A large trader can push gold up and stop us out but they can not continue to push unless the fundamentals are behind them and I just do not see it. A close over $298.0 would be positive. Take one day at a time, but the action was the result of one trader or group or traders and NOT from an all around buying surge. The chart simply does not support that. The buying was all done in spurts at night. Just light when silver collasped it was done with the help of one large trader selling to hit the long's stops. Once the stops are hit new trend followers jump on board and the move last a little longer but it does not last forever!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:59 - ID#190411)
I tried to take a bit of your advice on some the 'stralian juniors.
The broker that I contacted said that I was nuts. The only one the he would recommend of your bunch was ECM.
Perhaps you could start up an investment club for Kicoites that have more spare change than brains.
They are very popular here is the U.S. ( Clubs, not people lacking brains; but that's another topic. )
It seems that for a while, the midsize and juniors will languish.
I'll still keep looking for an answer, though.
Aussie Dollar up against USD, but down against Au, isn't it?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 21:59 - ID#206298)
@ Gollum
I didn't know your wife was having health problems. I am sorry to hear of your troubles. I will say a pray and wish for your souls to to be replenished with health and happiness. May god be with you and bless you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:03 - ID#72316)
Crazy markets
S&P minus .10 globex

down 6%, up 5% every day,, U.S smaller but also eractic,,, I read many years ago that eractic action spells direction change..
Speaking of spelling


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:04 - ID#402148)
very light OI drop today.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:04 - ID#43349)
Not too many months ago dollar going up meant US markets going up while
asian markets went down. It does not take too much of a stretch to imagine dollar going down meaning asian markets coming up while US stocks
go down.

The market hates uncertainty. Todays jump on Wall Street was largely
dur to the relief of the uncertainty as to whether the US was going to
come to the defense of the yen or not. Before long, however these guys
are going to start realizing what a falling dollar really means.....

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:06 - ID#45173)
Shlomo: I doubt Rubin or AG are getting much sleep these days
Think of the decisions these guys have to make in a very dynamic economic and political environment. Kinda like flying in a bad storm. You have to shut off the autopilot and really pay really close attention every second.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:06 - ID#43349)
I think there's a good chance he's ill.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:07 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, of course I agree with you that
intervention is a one day deal. But it looks like
there was a decision made to step on the throat because...
...and you know why and how...So, may be we'll see
some compromise, say...$330-340 would balance the basket
of currencies..and exporting U.S. corporations...
I believe we talked about it a lot at the end of 1997.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:08 - ID#402148)
Rubin sucked the YEN shorts in. He did for $1B what would have taken $50B in a dogfight. He still has the $50B.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:09 - ID#402148)
FWIW, Wayne Angel says fed would like 350 tacit gold standard price.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:09 - ID#244418)
Gary North on Y2K bank runs.
"If every family pulled out one month's income in cash, this would be $283.3 billion.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. currency in circulation in May, 1998, was $479 billion.

If my Casio wrist watch calculator is correct, 283 divided by 479 is 0.59. Therefore, to get their hands on one month's income, American households would have to get almost 60% of all the currency presently in circulation... will be king in a society that has turned to barter. Recognizable precious metal coins will be emperor. "


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:10 - ID#202118)
Shlomo...Clinton does not look well!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:11 - ID#402148)
Welp, Rubin is probably considering a job change, a stressful condition for anyone.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:14 - ID#401460)

Probably some extra Yen that Goldman Sachs had laying around. This is all pretty complex for my simple complex mind to understand. I like to look at the basics.

The Yen and the Dollar, what is their real value. I don't care about their perceived value in the light of lesser currencies - paper is paper just as trash is trash.

Yes Rubin looks bad, he tried to laugh off Greenspan's attacks today but, I think he was embarrassed by the public exchange.

This emplies that if interest rates should and could go up - they will. It appears that Greenspan has had enough of this shell game.
He was very agressive today, unlike him to be so reactionary - he was quick and strong in his response to Ruben's attempt to spin ( BS ) .

It could be that he does not have time for makeup or to go to the beach.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:15 - ID#402148)
Bank Credit Analyst charts show this Far East train wreck happens every 4 or 5 years. Gold just happens to move in tandem with those markets.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:15 - ID#402148)
Bank Credit Analyst charts show this Far East train wreck happens every 4 or 5 years. Gold just happens to move in tandem with those markets.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:17 - ID#43349)
So what happens to the markets if a major official like Rubin should
become incapacitated?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:18 - ID#45173)
I just sent Rubin a 1 week gift certificate at Tan-o-Ramma
out of appreciation for the kinds of decisions he's had to make lately. I, on the other hand, have decided to go have a beer.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:18 - ID#374204)
I stand corrected.
(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:19 - ID#434108)
Commitment of Traders charts, via snail-mail/Commodity Trend Service, just arrived, 3 days late
Gold: COT is unclear, with Commmercials' new net-long values, exceeding their last net-long high/peak, in 3/98. Evenso, with corresaponding prices for weekly gold in 3/98 higher than 6/98, this powerful
indicator is still, overall, bullish.

Nothwithstanding this longer-term bullish perspective
I said in an earlier post today ... the shorter term indicator -
of mining-stocks volume & price patterns -- that is the gold
mining shares ( see xau components )
had only an anemic upside bounce today; and
these shares must have more convincing upside follow-thru tomorrow/soon, or else today's upside jump for gold, is a false start.

Silver: COT pattern is unclear.

Eurodollar: COT pattern is bullish.

T-Bonds: COT patttern suggests Bonds are likely to have topped.

T-Notes: After brief bull patttern, COT is unclear.

C-OIL: COT patttern is clearly, very bullish.

Un. Gas: COT pattern is unclear, but likely bullish.

H-OIL: COT patttern is unclear but likely bullish.

S&P500: COT pattern is potentially bullish, but unclear.

Brit #: COT pattern is unclear, but potentially bullish.

Canad. $: COT pattern is most likely, very bullish.

D-Mark: COT pattern is unclear, likely bullish.

Sw-Franc: COT pattern unclear, potentially bullish.


Corn: COT potentially bullish.

Soybeans: COT pattern is bullish.

Soymeal: COT pattern - BULLISH

Soy-oil: COT pattern: unclear, potentially bearish.

Wheat: COT potentially bullish.

Oats: COT - potentially bearish.

Cocoa: COT - bearish.

Coffee: COT - unclear, likely bullish.

Sugar: COT - potentially very bullish.

OJ: COT - very bearish.

Cotton: COT - unclear ( too late ) .

Lumber: COT - unclear/avoid.

L. Cattle: COT - unclear, potentially bullish.

F. Cattle: COT - unclear

L. Hogs: COT - unclear

P. Bellies: COT - unclear

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:19 - ID#401460)
HopeFull (Tantalus)

IMHO, Correction needed... I think?

Rubin does not have $50 billion that is why he had to have a sucker punch.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:23 - ID#7568)

With about 6.5 million ounces of spec shorts on the Comex alone, the total short position could easily be more than twice this amount. 13 million ounces would be around 400 tonnes. Being the absolute romantic dreamer that I am, suppose the short covering rally induced gold fever, so that the shorts actually became longs. This would make the potential swing about 800 tonnes or 30% of a years production.

This scenario is not as preposterous as it may seem. Over the last few months we have seen the exact reverse in the silver market. According to my elves two funds accounted for net sales of something between 150 and 200 million ounces. The swing from fully long to fully short in this world of big funds can be a dramatic force. What's even more scary, is that most of it is done just by looking at charts with no regard to what's happening under the surface.

Kinda makes your heart go pitter patter.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:25 - ID#43349)
good night
I'm going to retire.

And, guys, I know this is all exciting, but let's try to hold the sentiment down this time, ok?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:25 - ID#401460)


If Rubin steps down, His clone, Larry Somers, from Golman Sachs is on the job.

IMHO, I think that the Clinton Administration will try to float this boat till the end. They have no choice.

We all should be following what GS, GE, Chase, and the boys are doing.


Mad Hatter
(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:25 - ID#293211)
Testing my network

Just a test...

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:27 - ID#43349)
Yeah, but I was thinking more along the terms of short term sentiment.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:29 - ID#250205)
If stock market rallied because Rubin took action to stabilize Asia, dollar declined but interest rates went also, something seems out of wack. Is gold going up because Asia problems are solved and banks in Japan will not collpase? Seems like this rally may be another bull trap if gold is going up with stock market on knee-jerk reaction. If intervention continues & bonds crash then commodities get hit by high interest rates & carrying costs. Seems like nothing makes sense anymore!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:31 - ID#317193)
oris...good to converse with you again...
Brother oris, I for one see the volatility as an indication that things are getting out of hand. I am still long a few Dec. gold contracts. Ready to turn on a silver dime. Ill short gold paper on any downturn or add to my long position if a breakout occurs.

What is going on is not rational. The powers that be may lose control. Until I see a real trend I am lost on guessing this market.

Gold mining shares...Ill wait to see a trend. I still see gold going up and then way down before July. However, since my crystal ball is cloudy I will just react to the game being played.

This is scary if you ask me.

Smile, things could be gold or guns in hand.


(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:33 - ID#432157)
Bill's Comments
Sure hope he is correct, 1 robin does not make a spring .I wish more of you guys would talk about his comments and the Yen move to-day WILL IT LAST ?????????????

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:37 - ID#288399)
Hopefull/$1B Rubin move
Maybe it's too soon to tell if Bob pulled this all off for $1B. He may be back in the FX markets when he and his buddy, WJC, get to China. All this was just to make WJC look good in China ( i.e., no need to beg the Chinese not to devalue the yuan for now. )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:43 - ID#267298)
Watching the action tonight brings to mind something you
posted awhile back, it was I believe,

"As goes the NIKKEI so goes GOLD"

It may not be so all the time but sure sounds good tonight....

Take Care and GO GOLD

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:46 - ID#374204)
Why would we treat our best Asia/Pacific Rim economic ally in
such a fashion, if our two economies are indeed inter-related?

The Japanese would love to have a military presence, if we could
look past Dec. 7th.

I also heard on CBS tonite that we are actively seeking renewed
relations with Iran ( ie... Saadam Insane ) .

Which course of action would be more sound. Teheran or Tokyo?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:47 - ID#190411)
Shlomo- That may be the reason pure and simple.
Never underestimate BC's ability to put onb a show.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:54 - ID#374204)
High Rise/HopeFull
I meant Iraq

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:55 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Both Gold funds posted the TOP sector percentage gains!

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:56 - ID#284255)
Could you provide a link to these charts???

Seems to me that the art of investing has changed of late.
Smart money has sold out to speculators.

Smart money was happy with 10% pa
Speculators want 10% a week.

Smart money holds their positions for years.
Speculators for minutes/hours/days.

And these speculators will turn at a moments notice
To follow the short term trend.

With this increasing volatility
Speculators are having a ball.

But they have no long term conviction.

The short term trend on equities is now up.
But the tend is not strong
And will be deserted in a blink of the eye.

Volatility plus speculators
Is a very dangerous mix.

Beware and bewarned.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 22:57 - ID#206235)

With todays event of Clinton initiating the support and bail out of the Yen, is there any one here that thinks Japan would support the dollar should the situation be reversed??? Or any other country for that matter???

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:03 - ID#316404)
Gold as Currency (interesting comment)
Wednesday June 17, 12:06 pm Eastern Time

Gold shares regain ground amid dollar/yen action

NEW YORK, June 17 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. dollar's slide against the Japanese yen on Wednesday helped push shares of gold stocks higher, reversing the shares' losses during the last several days, analysts and traders said.

``Gold should be viewed as another currency,'' said Todd Hinrichs, an analyst ABN AMRO. ``So if the dollar is strong against the yen, gold is weak and vice versa.''

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:04 - ID#317193)
Jeil, I keep looking at your charts every day. Youre not doing so well. Keep the faith...things are so volatile you might be right but a few days or weeks off.

Keep posting. Im so lost Ill look at any lamppost. Not that yours is that bad. As a matter of fact, I can see where in ten days you could frame the darn things but, then again, in another ten you could burn them. : )


(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:16 - ID#316404)
Repost of 03:06
"Could it be that the DOW and Gold no longer flow in different directions?? " ( Yes yes I know, it's the Yen, nevertheless..... )

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:20 - ID#45173)
Anyone know the market status in Asia? Yahoo! and Bloomberg offline
for the past 1 1/2 hours.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:23 - ID#316404)
@ Rube....$100 for M/S 65 question
Rube, re your earlier AM question on whether $100 each is a good price for pre 1921 Morgan's in M/S 65.

The answer is.... Yes, that's a very fair price IF....the coins are certified by NGC or PCGS ( especially PCGS ) and IF, they aren't "bottom of the barrel" for grade.

Even bottom of the barrel "Sight/Unseen" , dealer wholesale, ( from CDN ) prices are no less than around $80 for these coins, therefore, any buyer would expect to pay substantially more than this, particularly for coins that are attractive. Incidentally, the Morgan market has been climbing and IMHO, will climb a lot higher before all is said and done.

Now if some coin dealer shmoe or individual is just running an ad for "M/S 65" raw coins, or certified by some other service than the "Big Two" WATCH OUT! they could easily be overgraded and worth a small fraction of $100 each.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:24 - ID#284255)
Softwar - breaking news. re China and technology

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:28 - ID#316404)
@ Buckanchac
You said "BUCKACHANC ( Reality ) ID#206235:
With todays event of Clinton initiating the support and bail out of the Yen, is there any one here that thinks Japan would support the dollar should the situation be reversed??? Or any other country for that matter???"

Well, the problem here is that with the U.S. weilding the strongest economy in the world, the strongest currency in the world, and the highest trade volume in the world.... we are the primary beneficiary's of any "propping up" of major trouble spots in the world economy.

In the reverse situation, other countries would not benefit proportionally. We're not lending economic support purely out of the goodness of our magnanimous hearts I can assure you.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:44 - ID#374307)
EJ@Asian Markets
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 11:25PM 2615.0 +65.7 +2.58%

China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 11:26PM 1370.136 +21.194 +1.57%

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:24PM 8544.31 +539.96 +6.75%

India BSE 30 ^BSESN 7:12AM 3400.95 0.00 0.00%

Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 11:26PM 432.677 +13.235 +3.16%

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 10:02PM 15362.49 +647.11 +4.40%

Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:25PM 477.01 +26.13 +5.80%

New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40 11:25PM 2031.99 +32.40 +1.62%

Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 7:00AM 1046.02 0.00 0.00%

Philippines PSE Composite ^PSI 11:24PM 1828.93 +112.75 +6.57%

Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 11:21PM 1146.53 +38.83 +3.51%

South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 10:31PM 321.84 +18.03 +5.93%

Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 3:45AM 607.50 -5.50 -0.90%

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:24PM 7715.75 +249.37 +3.34%

Thailand SET ^SETI 11:25PM 300.00 +27.06 +9.91%

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:45 - ID#190411)
Your last, is good advise.
I am eating my guts out for every spec trade that goes up or down.
I feel for Midas and the others a gettin' hammered.
I made my long term play, and I just think that I will stay with it.
After a good while, one gets a sense of who is right on their calls.
Contrary to the yuppie types that spout the "New Paradigm", I will choose the interpretation of our forebears, when it comes to the history of this generation.
The masses want all of the benefits of science and technology, yet they would be willing to submit to most any yoke that our central government overseers can fabricate.

Back in the 50's there was a translation of a long letter, from a father to son, telling him about the nature of man, and how he should conduct himself in his worldly dealings. The civilisation that they were members of, is called Sumerian by us. Seven thousand years hasn't changed the nature of man all that much.
It's so striking; the parallels.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:47 - ID#174103)
Unintended Consequences
Rubin may have used $1 billion rather than $50 billion to slap the shorts. The difference in cost is folded up in a change in behavior of the markets. Next time the equities tank, a few less folks will move into bonds. Maybe they might even consider a small gold hedge? Even cash would be interesting.

for Highrise: yup, feed the ducks while they're quacking, but geez, don't they get sick of eating paper?!

for Gollum: ditto. BTW, glad to hear everything is OK with the OL. Ask the Doc about Vitamin E, 400 - 800 IU / day. Excellent way to decrease MI risk and possibly restenosis, with basically no side-effects.

Hoosier Gold Bug
(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:55 - ID#401116)
BOJ/Fed. Intervention
Reuters reports tonight that about six billion was spent to knock the stuffing out of some Yen shorts today ( By the close of trading in NY.. ) .

With the fundementals of 450+ basis points difference for short-term money and a HUGE trade surplus for Japan.....The yen has to drop....

Anybody wish a guess where the dollar/yen rate will be next Wed. beg. of trading in Tokyo?? I think about 142. If I am on will see the hedge funds really pile on this time...

Mike K__A
(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:56 - ID#153280)
Defending Sick Willie
By Matt Drudge
Wed Jun 17 1998 23:55:31 EDT



The DRUDGE REPORT has been briefed on what appears to be a direct White House attempt to thwart any immunity deal for Monica Lewinsky.

Contrary to widespread press reports, a recent meeting in Judge Johnson's chamber had nothing to do with the Starr/Brill leak fight.

According to case intelligence, the hearing, attended by lawyers for Clinton and Lewinsky, and Ken Starr, was called to discuss the issue of immunity for the former White House intern.

Lawyers for the White House are said to be arguing over assurances offered by ex-Lewinsky lawyer William Ginsburg -- assurances tied to a possible joint defense agreement!

With Monica Lewinsky ready to deal, a well-placed source tells the DRUDGE REPORT that legal maneuvers are being used to slow new Lewinsky attorneys, Jake Stein and Plato Cacheris, in immunity talks with Starr.

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:56 - ID#284255)
Shipping Y2k
The general consensus implies that anyone who declines to see the Y2K as a serious threat is a Pollyanna ostrich with his head in the sand who obviously hasn't done enough homework on the subject.

There, I've done some research, taken my head out of the sand and have done my editorial duty to warn readers about the perils of taking Y2K too lightly.

I confess to having an overly cavalier attitude toward the ominous implications of Y2K. I'll even recant and reverse my position on the comment that caused so much furor in the original column.

I hereby declare that the chances this technological apocalypse will actually take place and send us back to the age of the slide rule and the abacus are infinitely greater than the odds that an asteroid from space will hit Godzilla and save New York from destruction.

Now, will everybody please get off of my Y2K back?

(Wed Jun 17 1998 23:57 - ID#284255)
Shipping Y2k
The general consensus implies that anyone who declines to see the Y2K as a serious threat is a Pollyanna ostrich with his head in the sand who obviously hasn't done enough homework on the subject.

There, I've done some research, taken my head out of the sand and have done my editorial duty to warn readers about the perils of taking Y2K too lightly.

I confess to having an overly cavalier attitude toward the ominous implications of Y2K. I'll even recant and reverse my position on the comment that caused so much furor in the original column.

I hereby declare that the chances this technological apocalypse will actually take place and send us back to the age of the slide rule and the abacus are infinitely greater than the odds that an asteroid from space will hit Godzilla and save New York from destruction.

Now, will everybody please get off of my Y2K back?