Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:02 - ID#253228)
TYoung and EJ

I agree that we are at a point where either my work will be shown to be either flamable or framable. My mood swings up and down along with the movements in the market, not only because I have the quality of my financial future on the line, but because it is damaging to my ego to fail.

I think the effects of the government action may have slightly accentuated what would otherwise have been. Maybe I am rationalizing though.

One of the thoughts I have about the dollar/yen intervention is that it again proves that government will do what no sane person is willing to do. I cannot imagine the effect will be anything but temporary and that the deflationary spiral will work itself.


I really enjoyed reading your post of a few days ago re your father and uncle. Made me wish I had been exposed to such conversations as a kid. My own father was unaware of the world around him and did not know silver from shinola. I did, however, have exposure to a crazy barber who had some really wild economic theories which he would lecture me on while he cut my hair. Sometimes he would get so wraped up in his thoughts that my flattop would list to one side by the time I walked out the door.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:03 - ID#255151)

WH trying to block immunity deal?
(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:05 - ID#434108)
re-copy of posting, of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:

shedding their fur...

while they still feign to demure.

Just when a cold wind,

begins to blow in;

as 'indian-summer' - too long

holding on;

with wishful thinking, all a-long.

The markets can no longer avoid nor hide,

the Yuppie-Kingdom's crumbling, & cry;

as winter's clearing cold and rain,

clean us all, and clear-out, even -

all our grains !

And some day in the future,

all will be clear;

while now, every stock market around

will 'tear', and give ground.

And gold and silver too

will NOW move on,

and move up;

at least for a year." ( fini, 9/27/97 )


When this TENT of our global economy collapses and unwinds,

most of us will not have seen it in 9/97, nor will most of us, especiallly our "leaders" ....even admit it ....even now.

For denial affords an Indian-summmer-like, economic-world ...

of false-comfort, -complacency, and -security ....

... offered to & clung to, by:

the weary, and the fearful, and the desperate, and the misled,

and the corrupted.

And so it will not start at "The Center Post" --

the most powerful points -- :

the U.S., & W. Europe

It will unravel and collapse, before that....

at the "Side-Posts".....

such as Japan, China-HongKong, Middle-East, So. America, etc.,

And even before them, the collapse will start, and first -- now,

as it has -- "At the Stakes" :

Southeast Asia, Russia, the Balkans ........

This world-wide economic crisis did not happen by accident or surprise. It was born in the seed of a mis-guided and corrupt

currency-spawned &credit-mushroomed international money system built on the false premise of "fractional-reserve-banking" and a world-wide monetary unit neither backed by, nor convertible to gold, the only universal, international medium of exchange and standard of value that has stood the test of enduring time.

In the place of sound money, and currencies of convertibility and integrity, has been structured and erected a towering international economic edific - an enormous billowing tent

.... of political expediency and exploitation.

Today, this careening, collapsing tent is seething with the symptoms of the unbacked, un-convertible U.S. dollar.

This global economy is defined in terms of - & dominated by -

the U.S. dollar -- which today is backed by nothing but the

"soundness" of the largest debtor nation in the world.

A few generations ago, this U.S. dollar, the reserve currency

for international commmerce & trade, was denominated in weights

of gold, and with its backing, and convertibility to it, could

thus be trusted and accepted, by nations of all creeds & colors.

But now, with decades of a paer-reserve-dollar, and floating currency the world-over....all our a sea of debt, and depression.

One by one, the stakes are disintegrating/collapsing, then the side-posts, and finally the center-posts, and the entire tent.

Thus, we are now reaping the currency harvest & political

holocaust of this follly of U.S paper dollar domination,

manipulation and exploitation. The seeds that have been sown are now reaping ...and raping... with a vengance.

If you think these words are too strong, investigate the circumstances of, or interview, the jobless & homeless of Indonesia,

Thailand, Malaysia, So. Korea ....the ones who had jobs & homes....a year ago.

Eventually, this spreading misery upon the fabric of human-kind,

will blanket the world, and drag down....bring down ....

collapse....the entire tent....of the global economy.

And all of civilization will convulse, over its past folly.

The trillions of U.S. dolllars, exported all over the world,

will come careening home .....

collapsing the final center-post, of the tent....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:05 - ID#317193)
Insanity rules
Look at the Asian should be scared sh*tless. 6%-7% fluctuations everywhere.

I'm going to bed and say a prayer. This is insanity. Sri Lanka seems O.K.: )


(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:09 - ID#317193)
Glad to see you still have your sense of humor. Good luck...which ever way things unfold.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:14 - ID#342376)
Today's events and the Future of the Euro
Doesn't today's action show the world that a strong dollar is the problem? All of Asia is in the black and up alot. Although the action today may have been political and the general consensus is that government intervention in currency doesn't work in the long run, it still showed so clearly that the dollar needs to fall for a bit of balance to be restored. The world must be getting mad at the power the US dollar has. All this leads me to believe that the Euro will be very successful when it is launched. The Yen may continue to slide but it seems something very important was shown today.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:15 - ID#255151)
Mike_K--Fast Work

Just saw your 23:56 post. Getting slow in my old age!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:20 - ID#317193)
Bart...thanks for the quotes...I everywhere(now)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:22 - ID#284255)
Caterpillar 3406
April 17 1997: Large vehicles may not start: According to a report on the State of Texas Year 2000 website, one in four fire engines manufactured since 1985 could fail to start in 2000: date-aware microprocessors are used to track their maintenance schedules and turn off the ignition if these schedules are not followed. A similar problem has been reported in the Caterpillar 3406 truck engine. Some companies that lease large vehicles install additional microprocessors in them to monitor whether maintenance schedules are being followed.
These engines are in many, many trucks and boats,
As well in mining equipment.
Is your Gold company Y2k proof?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:24 - ID#286230)
C$ up about 50 cents. Did the Government buy more gold?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:47 - ID#287186)
Railroad Locomotives - sorry Sharefin if your urls included this
How much of this country's freight moves by RR? Ever realize how many computer controls and microprocessors are in a typical diesel locomotive? I don't know but it sure seems to be a bunch! Then there is the scheduling, switching, and other tasks handled system wide to get cars from here to there. The Union Pacific merger will look like traffic after a small town high school football game compared to what Y2K could do to the RRs. Coal for power plants moves primarily by RR. Same for anhydrous ammonia for fertilizer that grows our bread and the corn that feeds our beef. Then the corn and wheat are shipped by RR. Do any of you remember what happened when the RRs failed to deliver enough cars to the grain belt come harvest season in ATLAS SHRUGGED?
P.S. Every local mine hereabouts ships their ore or mill concentrate eventually by rail. What happens to the POG and every base metal when that supply line gets tied in knots?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:51 - ID#267300)
I see the frenzy just starting.

Platinum will probably to test 400 next. Long term physical holding is a pretty safe bet.

Been to any third world countries lately? Seen the air?

Demand will continue world-wide

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:54 - ID#410215)
..... Platinum .....

DDB3 -

What can you tell us about platinum?

I am curious.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:55 - ID#284255)
Squirrel - why not?
Send in the military to drive those trains?
Providing the engines are ok.

This was mentioned recently.

Those other GAO Y2k reports are eye-openers.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:57 - ID#369165)
I like your thinking on the EURO. The US$ has been the bully for way too long. When it weakens the whole world will pile on.
On another note-this intervention is only a short term fix. I do not think anyone would argue otherwise. Might be very short term.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 00:58 - ID#284255)
As with equities - as with gold???
Will the speculators sell these rally's???

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:01 - ID#287186)
Some of you may be esconsed in a cocoon
But even you may be forced to come out for groceries or jury duty.
Monday - Friday and some Saturdays I face customers for 9 hours.
I do not look forward to later this year when a dozen people a day who have heard of my small computer reputation and my mumblings about millenium come in and say in an honest to gosh, late breaking news, revelatory tone of voice....
It is going to take a lot of rolaids to keep from yelling at 'em that I've been trying to tell you for over a year - you didn't listen.\
by selling 'em ( in onezees and twozees} 1oz Silver Maple Leafs for $9.95 and 1/10 oz Gold Maple Leafs for $49.95 {based on todays spot prices - November's prices may be considerably higher}
Call me dirty stinking greedy
It is no worse than Art Bell and G.M. Scallion!
See my further explanations over on the old or new K2.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:02 - ID#410215)
..... DDB3 .....

Can you explain the capacity for South African mines to increase production?

Will palladium demand fall due to substitution in Auto catalysts?

Can you quantify the increase in demand you expect?

Can you explain JM's assertion that the Japanese may have a 15 month supply on hand?

How much do the Russians have?

When will they ship?

From what source ( s ) is this information gleaned?

$400 seems a bit timid, yes?

This is my favorite subject

Let's talk


Mike K__A
(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:03 - ID#153280)
There's only one thing I want to see sooner than gold going up, that's clinton going down in disgrace.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:04 - ID#190411)
I once posted something to the effect that "noone believes you".
HM to 1.00 might be a lot more likely if it weren't sor the irrationality of governments.
One can always count on this, for they are the antithesis of the rational market.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:06 - ID#45173)
Jeil: Thanks for the kind words
I don't cut hair but I do have a few out-there economic theories ; )

I have another prediction to add to my one about Bill Weld being our next president: the euro will cause a run on the dollar. Not right away, but at some point in 1999. Taking the dollar off its pedestal to create an even playing field is the whole point of the euro.

That's it for me. G'Nite.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:09 - ID#410215)
..... DDB3 .....

If you are looking at the JM 1998 Platinum Review

It has been discussed at some length here.

And many here have their own copies.

Do you have any new information?

Would you like to buy some platinum?

I can help you with that.

Feel free to call.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:09 - ID#187109)
*these are the times that the blood BOILS*
It is gooood to be a trader......ya feel ALIVE! Replace your red blood with ice-water............whoa! Go commods go! This intervention may have been the grease to get ALL the wheels moving............Grains, some softs, METALS, ( duh ) currencies........I done good today.......reeeeeeeaaaaaal good. May have missed the en but my BP's paid HANDSOMELY......... ( smile ) . the charts.....hmmmmmmmmmm

$$ ( ! )

Dave@goldfever ......thank you for the COT chart analysis. I will put this in my quiver with the other arrows......I think my ammo is ready and my bow is strung ( VERY ) tight.......and my undies are perfectly in place..........thwock! thwock! thwock! Cha-Ching$ ( ! )


hey Gilligan....... ( cabin-boy ) - give us a little 'feel' from!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:10 - ID#190411)
@ squirrel- Off Topic
I don't plan on visiting your hometown anytime soon.
The reason I inquired about your store: is y2k supplies by mail.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:15 - ID#187109)
*those are excellent queries*
trader-o-metal-dude........are you holding back? Is there something you want to tell us?? Let 'er rip! sit back and enjoy the show......... ( ? )


(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:18 - ID#190411)
As far as gold and the COT's, S.J. Kaplan on his site, places a good deal of importance on these.
He has been exceptionally accurate on all of the PM's lately.
Your COT info helps me get a better picture of what's happening, even though I dont trade comedies.
How's them there Poorboys tonight?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:23 - ID#252150)
Farfel@When is the last time you had an original thought
Your 20:37 invoking the "Jew boys club" illustrates the paucity & abject
lack of originality in your posts.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:27 - ID#410215)
..... EB .....

I am probing the depths of this market, after it probed the depths of its price range. I am curious about this new guy. He has posted on gold, silver, and platinum. I wonder what HE knows. I am trying to learn, yes?


(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:27 - ID#190411)
@ squirrel
I saw your K2 exchanges about silver, but I couldn't avoid some sleep.
You speak of silver often. Do you know whether Bishop has it right about the vast naked short position in silver?
7/8 for SSC today. I bought me some non-expiring calls.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:33 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...I am sorry to learn that you are unhappy with.... disapproval of those who believe in a "Jew Boy Club."

So you dislike Jews? Tell us more.

Also, fill us in on your original definition of "stagflation."



(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:34 - ID#16255)
YIPPIE !! everything is now fixed for good in Asia! and the whole world!
......................think i'll buy some more AU!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:35 - ID#187109)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:45 - ID#287186)
We keep reposting this stuff - a central repository is needed
This is a starter list {and their links will tie up an evening}
RJ posted to just send an e-mail, ( no subject or message ) to:
Lehmans has a some security stuff to jump through which is easy on Navigator but may be a pain with Explorer. But they offer non-electric stuff for Amish, etc. such as propane freezers and refrigerators - though likely not for long.
Walton Feed may be able to get you hardware, kerosene lamps, grain grinders, and light items, etc fairly fast. Bulk food orders are backed up for months.
The home page of The Frugal Squirrel - no relation to me.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:47 - ID#253228)
You are so correct. The Libertarian view is that government is force. It mostly does what rational people will not freely do ( anti-freedom, anti-free markets ) .

I can remember the old Keynesian based economics courses back in the 1960's where we were told that government must step in to provide goods and services that the private market would not provide. Back then I did not have the depth of experience to think this was an irrational view of the world. I remember one kid that did have strong anti-government political views who was constantly belittled by the professor. Come to think of it, I guess that is why they are called professors, since they profess a set of beliefs.

Anyway, I still think Homestake will get down to a very low level before everyone realizes that the paper jig is over. I did some work on ASA ( which is incomplete ) independent of anything I have done on Homestake, ( although same methods ) and the answer is similar. Actually I show a sharp drop into August on ASA but I do not show the bottom on Homestake until mid December, 1998, all of which bewilders me because I would expect them to move more or less together.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:49 - ID#215379)
sell dollars or buy yen ?
I didn't here Reuters say that Rubin bought Yen, might have bought US bonds and called that selling 2 billion ( not 6 billion ) .....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:50 - ID#252150)
Made some notes to reply to, but have had too much beer, & even finished the wife's Irish Cream
I made a few notes of posts to reply to, but unfortunately can't read them very well.

Some thoughts from Victoria B.C.

Went to the Legion this evening & noticed that many people were eating chicken wings. After a few beers I ordered a plate of chicken wings. At .10 each, that works out to around .06 ea U.S. or .72 per dozen. I noticed a particularly porcine women next to me that ate chicken wings non-stop for the 1 1/2 hrs that I was there. It struck me that at the rate she was consuming chicken wings that she could keep a village of 1000 souls in Biafra going indefinetly.

How long can this inequity continue?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:54 - ID#284255)
Waltons are sold out.
They have a 3 months waiting list
That is getting longer each day.


Will that ever happen to gold?

John Disney__A
(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:54 - ID#24135)
Hold it..
Farfel ..
James 's comment was not anti-semitic
.. It was more .. how shall I say ...
.. anti farfelistic ..

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:58 - ID#287186)
Just a shot from the hip type hunch or gut feeling
Hmmm - maybe it was those moldy acorns.
Maybe Silver will take another short term dip under $5.
But long term - by this fall - it should be heading for $10 - especially when the base metal mining that produces it as a byproduct takes it in the shorts when the worldwide demand goes in to the toilet due to widespread depression or the fear of one.
I continue to beat the Silver Coinage drum because it is the most feasible to get into coinage in reasonable denominations. A US$50 Gold coin is just to dad gum small. And if POG goes up substantially then that teeny weeny coin gets closer to $100. In day to day use twenties are the most common ( $1 bills don't count cuz they should be coins}. Unless Gold takes one heck of a dive {not beyond possibility} there is just no way to make an acceptable Gold US$20 coin.
I also continue to beat the coinage drum for both Silver and Gold because unless both are monetized into commonly used and accepted coinage there is no chance for money to return to the PM standards we give a lot of lip service to.
THOSE WHO ARE CURIOUS AS TO WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT AND WANT TO READ MORE - see the posts back to the 13th on the new K2 at:

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:58 - ID#252150)
Prometheus@Thanks for the compliment
I consider your posts among the most interesting on this forum. Tell me, what do you take for that incessant pain in your liver?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 01:59 - ID#340302) discussing the schism between Rubin & Greenspan...
...with regard to economic policy, I did so to illlustrate the invalidity of yesterday's discussion concerning the existence of a "Jew Boys Club."

James attacked that post via a personal ad hominem attack.

Ergo, I think he has a problem with Jews.

I think he should elaborate.

You understand the syllogism?



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:03 - ID#16255)
I missed what part of the country you are in? If I am ever in your
neck of the woods I would like to buy you dinner!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:05 - ID#252150)
Farley farfetched@ You puny lightweight
With every post you belittle yourself. Soon you will disappear.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:08 - ID#16255)
@ All... Propand fridges can be had at a R.V. junkyard, cheap! Really cheap!
Most of what I own, somebody owned it before, Discounts are great!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:10 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...if you express spontaneous rage against me... you did earlier this evening, then I will eviscerate your abject unmitigated stupidity.

To quote my friend RJ, "you do not want to go down this road with me."



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:13 - ID#252150)
Farley Farfetched@I have a problem with dumb individuals like yourself
regardless of their ethnicicity.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:15 - ID#287186)
Sharefin, Erle, etc. - Bargain shopping may be over
The bulk food suppliers, as you have noted, are months behind. They would be smart to raise their prices now before Klinton imposes a price freeze. I know folks here who keep talking about maybe one day soon getting down to Denver to one of those warehouse bulk food outfits. Weeks pass. Months pass. They still have not got around to it.
ME - I hit the local grocery stores for case lots of sale items.
And as the days grow shorter ( after next week's solstice} I will be doing the squirrel thing by buying what I need in case lots or large bags regardless of it not being on sale. For now at least you can talk the manager into a 10% case discount.
These folks who are waiting to buy 200 pounds of something at a bargain price will soon find they can't get 200 pounds at any price. Even the mainstream groceries will be rationing. One case or 25lb bag to a person per trip.
WILL IT HAPPEN TO GOLD - likely not - there is a lot out there given the price is high enough. FOOD on the other hand - there is NOT much out there and the supply chain can't stand a run on it. Soon will come the day when you offer a store manager $20 for a 10 lb bag of sugar or flour and he will say NO! It is just not available - especially if you already have bought your ration this month. You figure you will just go to another store or send your wife in instead. So sorry Charlie! The ration coupons you got from the gov't allow you only one 10lb bag per month ( unless you can buy more on the black market ) .

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:15 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...when you first learn to spell the word....

then we will continue this discussion concerning intelligence.



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:17 - ID#252150)
Farley Fetched@You have never won yet
& you won't win against me. You have nothing original to say & expose yourself to ridicule every time you post.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:21 - ID#252150)
Farley Fetched@So now you cower in front of the mighty RJ
& quote him obsequiosly.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:28 - ID#287186)
Open-Loop - Dinner! Something better than Wild Hickory Nuts!}:-O
Leadville, Colorado
My store is called "The Telegraph Office"
located in an 1885 old hotel {now "affordable housing"} that was built by Horace Tabor - the millionaire who made it on Silver mining.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:30 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...I am not trying to win anything here...
...I simply provide information and opinions.

There is nothing to "win" on this forum. There is no prize offered, as far as I know.

If you are still seething over my re-definition of your misinterpretation of "stagflation from way back," then I apologize for upsetting you. I should have been more tactful.

In fact, to all KITCOITES, I do hereby offer up this formal apology if I have offended your sensitivities at any time.



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:32 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...I do not cower in front of RJ...
...I respect his intelligence.

You understand the distinction?



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:35 - ID#16255)
Ok tnx for the info. I am in the Phoenix, az area. We get to Colo.
from time to time and will look you up if we are in your area!
If there were to be a gathering of Kitco guys in the S.W. of U.S., I would go!
Thanks and Best Regards, O.L.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:38 - ID#252150)
Farley Farfetched@ Your definition of stagflation has not improved on what I learned in Econ101
I still don't think you have an inkling & there are 16 inklings in a clue.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:41 - ID#340302)
@JAMES...and your problem is that you...
...never took any classes AFTER Econ 101.

Have the best night you possibly can.



(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:47 - ID#252150)
Jeil&Glenn & others of your ilk
Did it ever occur to you that if TA really worked, then everyone with a high school education & a book on TA would be a millionaire?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:51 - ID#287186)
sharefin - the military I trust with what they've been trained for
{and to you doubting/conspiracists I say these guys are Americans FIRST}
Anyway - where was I? Oh yeah - trains.
If the whole system is tied up in one enormous cluster f**k no amount of stars or stripes is gonna get it moving. Put troops on the trains and trucks to guard against bandits but let the RR guys do what they know best. I will say though that a few stars establishing some priorities will certainly help a lot - such as screw the lettuce and new cars - put 'em on a siding - we have to get the coal, fuel, ore, fertilizer and grain trains through - and we don't give a damn that some muckity muck is gonna whine about not having his new BMW delivered on time.
And on the GOLD topic - mining and smelting resources will be diverted from Gold to important things like copper and zinc. Sorry guys. But it happened before in this little old world-class mining & smelting town.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:52 - ID#252150)
Farley Fetched@Yes I took Econ 102, but regardless, it's all BS
How many economists are millionaires? If it was'nt for cushy Gov't jobs, most of them would be flipping hamburgers.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 02:58 - ID#410215)
..... May I just point out .....

That I have nothing to do with this argument?

Matter of fact, I'm too sleepy in any case.



(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:00 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the quotes and chart! Wellcome back.

Let's hope Gold runs off the top of the page!

Good Night,


(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:05 - ID#287186)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:07 - ID#401460)

Are you still matter.
Please Knock off the BS, ignore F*, you are just showing everyone how you can be manipulated by another.

This site is for Gold not your blabbering back and forth with F* - stay on subject or at least close to it.



(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:13 - ID#255151)
US Nuclear/Technology Fiasco!

Here is a must read on the China/nuke proliferation/technology subject. Taken from congressional testimony.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:14 - ID#252150)
Let me just make a few cogent comments before I sign off. POG could go up,
but then it could go down. The JY could go up, but then it could go down.
Everything could go up, but then it could go down, with one exception, Farfels posts. They have been going in only one direction & are being flushed regularly.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:17 - ID#248170)
Sawadee Kap Goldbugs
I'm logging in from the sunny island of

Koh Samui in Thailand. There are YOUR amount of gold shops here.

I was recently in the town of Suratthani on the mainland and I counted

over 50 gold shops along just 3 roads. They sell 96.5% and 99.9% gold

jewelry. It all looked so beautiful that I couldn't help myself. So I

HOOVERED up MORE GOLD ( 99.9% of course ) . And the shops were busy.

By the way the Thai calender is different. It's the year 2541 over

here already. Yes this might be the only country in the world that

escapes Y2K. Amazing Thailand indeed !

For more info. check out

G o G o l d

John Disney__A
(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:19 - ID#24135)
Sorry ..
James ..

you said to farfel ..
"With every post you belittle yourself.
Soon you will disappear."

Farfel will NEVER dissapear ..
Farfel EXISTS through kitco ..
There is no real farfel ..
Farfel is a hologram ..

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:20 - ID#255151)
Madeline Albright Says Iran "Probably Has Nukes"330053


(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:32 - ID#253228)
One of the unfortunate facts of life is the human brain is quite frail in its ability to approximate reality. I can tell this is true, otherwise the Deomcrats and Republicans would not be able to keep getting voted in in each election.

I have more than once been shocked to realize I hold two opposing views at once. Sometimes I don't realize it until I say something out loud and then realize that can't be right. Maybe I have some faulty communication system from one part of my brain to another.

In any event, my mathematical approach to viewing markets helps me. I know it works, at least enough to make money more than lose money. We each have our little tools whatever they might be. I think some people can use the more traditional technical analysis tools successfully while others cannot. Some of it may be risk management. I think some people are good at fundamental analysis and others not.

I'll let you know when I exceed $100,000,000 from my method.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:40 - ID#253228)
John Disney_A
I appreciated your days ago post on Harmony vs Homestake. It gave me somehing to consider for whenever I turn bullish, which I am not now.

Hypothetically, if South African shares were to fall faster and sooner than North American shares over the next several months, what might explain such an event?

Good night. I'll check for a response after some sleep.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 03:54 - ID#284255)
Auric - re technology issues
Seems like some people make decisions for their own benefit.
And keep everyone else in the dark.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 04:24 - ID#255151)
CIA Director--Administration Was Warned About India Nukes

(Thu Jun 18 1998 04:35 - ID#255151)

I remember Nixon and Watergate. The corruption and criminality of the Clinton administration is staggering. It makes Watergate look like Teapot Dome.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 04:44 - ID#39857)
Evolution, economics and politics are all looking to break out.
He with bitumen blanket.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:02 - ID#284255)
It's not entirely confined to those at the top.

I feel rather it's a sign of the perversity of our current times.

The "Quickening"
The ever increasing need for more at a faster rate.
Be it profits, drugs, connections or friends etc.

Daily there is a need within our western society to consume.
More and more so, do these traits multiply.

Why do so many men need Viagra?
The need to succeed?

Even our children are taught to want for more.
Now! To stimulate/indulge their fantasies
The need to succeed.

There has been a vast migration from the country to the cities.
The need to have more, experience more.
At an ever increasing rate,

Just look to the youth of today.
There is a seeking for more there.
Take such stimulation away and watch out for the result.

In some ways I think that Y2k will be a leveler of this situation.
Perhaps a return to simpler rural lifestyles?
Who knows?
But I feel that there has been a deviation away from reality here.

We will all travel this age of transparency.
This age of Aquarius.

btw. Rant or rave this post has a message.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:08 - ID#57232)
Kathleen Willey intimidated before her TV appearance
All: Tires punctured and household cat disappears, strange man greets her and inquires about tires and cats. This is no surprise to me, because other xxxgate individuals whose testimony might weaken the presidency have been intimidated in similar fashion. One of the most prominent is Webster Hubble, who apparently 'turned white as a sheet' when notified that Vince Foster had died suddenly. Another is that witness of the Marcy park incident who saw suspicious characters around VF's car, told authorities, and then had mysterious individuals who would 'tail' him.

There are numerous other suspicious events which point to a shadowy group of individuals who protect or enhance the political image of the president, apparently for reasons of their own. If I were BC, I would be worried about the day I became a liability, given what this group appears to be capable of doing.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:11 - ID#333126)
while your attention is on Japan and the Yen...

Mother Russia still screams for help...

the show must go on...

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:20 - ID#57232)
CIA Director no supporter of BC -- any more, anyway.
Auric: Makes alot of sense that George Tenet had warned the president or his cabinet members about the India situation. Relatively hard to hide preparations for nuclear testing. The behavior of BC's followers -- that the CIA had dropped the ball -- is typical of their leadership style. Namely, protect the reputation of the president at all cost, even if it means trashing your supporters, or former workers. Hard to maintain an effective leadership role if the people that answer to you do not know when you will turn on them. I'm sure that situations like this have occurred with some of our most ethical, upright presidents. But -- our current president ( and his people ) do this far more freqeuntly that any president I can recall.

What I find interesting is that the current FBI director also seems to be at odds with the Clinton camp. And -- I hope it is fair to say that the FBI crime lab evidence tampering has been stopped.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:21 - ID#210235)
Mother Russia is crying alright. And it appears that Western loans aren't getting past a corrupt few in government.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:22 - ID#29048)
Mining shares up...

June 18, 1998
Shares Soar on Rising Gold

SYDNEY, Australia -- Shares soared Thursday on a combination of factors
including the rising price of gold, Wall Street's surging gains, the strengthening of the Australian dollar. In midmorning trading, the All Ordinaries Index was up 59.5, or 2.3%, to 2608.8, after climbing 24.4 points on Wednesday. On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September Share Price Index futures contract soared 72 points to 2636.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.9%, or 164.17, to
8829.46. While in London, metal prices climbed providing support for the
resource-heavy Australian market.

The All Resources index was up 3% compared with the All Industrials rise of 2.2%. The gold index jumped 4.8%, while the Australian dollar was at US$0.6129,compared with US$0.5921 at Wednesday's close.

The American depositary receipts of most major Australian companies rose in New York trading. In particular, recent decliner Boral surged 10.9%, and Westpac Banking rose 8.1%.

On the local market, Boral gained 8 Australian cents to A$3.07, while
Westpac advanced 20 cents to A$10.03.

John Disney__A
(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:24 - ID#24135)
thoughts from abroad..
For Jeil ..
Two things that may shake the RSA market relative
to the US market.
1. Elections coming up next year .. various politicans
MAY make wild statement that will scare off investors.
2. Falling rand ( my target 5.5 ish ) may also scare
investor in dollars and out of market .. This despite
mathmatical fact that falling rand favours RSA mines
and makes NA mines even LESS competitive . if such a
thing is imaginable.
Im almost all out of market myself and into dollar.
Believe intervention does not work and really provides
speculators new juicier target to employ to tear a currency
apart and make even more money. Recent gold rise was
simply rearrangent of prices die to currency reallignments
in my view.
Visions of "entropy bottoms" did not appear on gold
charts in other currencies so Im not switching positions.
At least not yet. I still think POG will go lower
.. at least to prior low. Thats my assumption and Ive
seen nothing yet to change my mind.. A solid cross
of the 30 day AMA would shake me a little and I may
start covering you know what at that point .. All puts
have already been cash or covered.
PS.. although I think gold will really rise WHEN it is
used to back financial instruments, rubin's last
excersize actually underscores an interesting little
problem for the US.. Many countries can "devalue" their
currency .. relative to the US. This will become more
evident when the EURO is introduced. The US cant
"devalue" because it is the BASE. I think rubin
and co make see the day when it will be more convenient
to have another BASE .. like .. you guessed it ..

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:33 - ID#347447)
Your 5:02 could almost be mistaken for a poem. A dark poem, yet full of light. Thomas Jefferson was a thoughtful metaphysician and was so very aware that the course America HAD to take was out into the material world. Unless she developed her rich natural resources and became materially strong, the new nation would be vulnerable to foreign aggressors. He foresaw the migrations to the cities and the desultory conditions therein that would occur for great numbers of people. He foresaw the mass abandonment of spiritual values and the danger of simple self reliance turning into material greed. But he saw this as an unwelcome but necessary transition to something perhaps better. His ideal was a contemplative society that would pierce the veil of the mysteries of life and make of the earth a more hospitable place for souls to grow and move on. But first he had to secure the physical well being of the people, and he made his decision for materialism, knowingly.
Those of us who live in the First World, which Jefferson helped bequeath to us, may each, in our own way, be squandering what he provided. But he succeeded. It is now up to us as individuals to enjoy the plenty and the safety of the modern world as we make our spirits stronger. That strength of spirit might be needed, when we allow ourselves to take that plenty and safety away.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:42 - ID#254112)
@Auric: One Important Aspect of Power: the Threat Mechanism
I respect you personally and maybe therefore I want for you to hear my honest opinion.
You have pointed to the proliferation of missile technology through China. I'm not an American citizen and therefore not very excited and morally outraged when other peoples like China, Iran, or Pakistan do not obey to laws which were made by the American Congress.

Why should other peoples feel confortable that under "American view of political correctness" there should be only a few privileged countries which are allowed to have nukes and missiles?

The political system of America is not any better than that of any banana republic. Only more powerful. America is not a democracy. It is an oligarchy. The oligarchy pays their willing servants and puts them into positions of power. Clinton is not any different in this regard than Bush. Maybe the oligarchical factions of which they both are assets of are different. But they are assets. So what if they act as they do? Do you expect them at all to care for the benefit and wellbeing of you and the rest of Americans?

Now, when China and other countries act as they do by trying to counter the threat mechanism to which they are exposed through missiles and nukes owned by a few countries of lords, why are you surprised? Why are you excited? Do you agree that America should be the tool of the oligarchy to dominate the world by having the privilege to own these weapons and by having the privilege to decide who else can be a "legitimate" owner of these weapons ?

How these questions are discussed here in America, I find is a big joke, it feels like "moral irrational exuberance".

If the American taxpayers find it o.k. to develop weapons of mass destruction, and the American political culture as a whole finds it o.k. that only Russia, U.K., France, China, and Israel are allowed to be legitimate owners of these weapons, then nobody should be surprised that other countries strive to counter this terrible mechanism of threat.
If you don't want to distinguish between "chosen" peoples with privileges and the rest who need to be under the control of the lords, then you should first fight the development of these weapons in your own country and in those who have these weapons already.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:46 - ID#411331)
@ ALL: Gold lease rates dropped from 1.55% to 1.40% The gold carry trade just
got a little more profitable, and there is now more room for the shorts to work between 280 and the present POG. Ominous

(Thu Jun 18 1998 05:59 - ID#222235)
@Squirrel - stopping you is not an option
Forewarned is not always four-armed, and the four-pawed have outmaneuvered us at at every tree in this neighborhood. My noble efforts to warn the huddled masses "The Squirrels are coming" has me now labelled a crank. My own children won't take me seriously, only the dogs, who don't get much rest with all the fluffy tails around. What are your terms of surrender?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:09 - ID#26793)
Responding to your comment that the Dow/Gold Ratio is "just a number". The Dow is measured in dollars. In my lifetime ( and the Dow's ) A dollar has been from 20 cups of coffee to a half-cup. All my lifetime an ounce has been an ounce.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:11 - ID#57232)
Your points are well-made
Alberich: Your post is to-the-point. You are correct that the US really does not have the high moral ground if it supports the use of nuclear weapons - which it does, implictly, anyway. And, the US is one of the biggest sellers of weapons of any kind, just like the other major world powers.

I'll tell you why I am upset about the ChinaMissleSatGate episode. I realize that the current world political situation is unlikely to accept world nuclear disarmament, although the US could have a major impact in this area if we had an effective president.

My point is this -- we have our problems -- our leaders often do not do things that are in the best interests of the American people, and certainly often not in the best interests of world peace. But -- this is no excuse in promoting world destruction by the indiscriminant dissemination of nuclear weapons technology, missle technology or encryptation technology. You may not be upset by what happened if you are not an American, but consider this: It may be your country that is downwind of a nuclear event -- either accidental or intentional. Not a pleasant thought. That is why you should be upset also.

In fact, the only way to stop what appears to be our ( human ) lemming like progress to oblivion will be world disarmament. At least nuclear.

My guess is that our ultimate test as a intelligent civilized species will be whether we can survive the next 50-100 years. If we can, the stars will be ours. If not -- perhaps some other species on this planet will evolve and reach the stars. I wonder -- just how many species like us have had our ultimate test -- and survived?

What do I foresee if we do survive the next 50-100 years? Hopefully some small scale nuclear events only. If we are lucky, the world's human population will rise up and control nuclear weapons proliferation just as the Japanese did after WWII. It may take a major event to galvanize public opinion. Lets hope I am right. I firmly believe that our human destiny is in the exploration of the limitless universe around us, rather than be cooped up on this little ( ecologically ) fragile planet.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Excellent catch on Russia at 5:19.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:17 - ID#57232)
Addendum to 6:11 - World Economic crisis first, then Nuclear crisis
Alberich: I forgot the gold part. Our next hurdle is to keep our world economic system intact. After that -- the nuclear proliferation question.

And after that -- I hope we begin our journey to the stars.

In the meanwhile, this gold/precious metals site, and others like it, carry the seeds to jumpstart our world economic system. Lets hope that we do not need to do this. But -- there is no harm in being prepared.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:19 - ID#26793)
What to do after intervention?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:20 - ID#255151)

For the last several years, the US, all of Europe ( I think ) , Aus., NZ, Canada and Japan have had a non proliferation treaty and a consensus that the spread of nuclear weapons should not be permitted. I am definitely not surprised or shocked that the nuclear genie is out of the bottle. But I want a full and complete accounting of the Clinton administration's responsibility in this. This spread of nukes into South Asia and maybe Iran is potentially a very dangerous development.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:20 - ID#376309)
Wasn't it on Monday that Rubin made some commnets that sent the YEN down hard. I would love to make two bets. One that thous comments were made purposely and that two, the government SOLD Yen before he made thous comments. Monday the Yen fell alot and if you want to really turn the market around first you need to get it over-sold, the more the better. Plus if they had sold Yen then Bought them back on Wednesday there is less risk and you can also buy more at once.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:22 - ID#376309)
I am also a fan of yours and would love to see a weekly chart on the price of gold and if you could an updated on on the stock market. Obviously a gold chart would be a big hit around here.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:23 - ID#26793)
Who was this intervention meant to please; China or Japan?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:27 - ID#26793)
Along with intervention the FED has changed direction on bank reserves

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:27 - ID#57232)
DOW/Gold ratio
Donald, RJ: RJ is right that the DOW/gold ratio is just a number in the sense that it cannot be used as a trading indicator. Too crude.

But -- on the other hand Donald is right that this number is very useful, as it is an indicator of the fundamental forces that are present. I think the best analogy is looking at a dam -- such as the Hoover dam. Imagine a 200 foot wall of water that is only one molecule thick -- there would be little danger if the dam broke. On the other hand what if the water behind the dam was backed up 100 miles? That would be a different story altogether. Neither of these scenarios will tell you if the dam will fail -- the water head is the same. Another source of information, such as 'technical' information is needed to determine the 'when'.

Thus -- Donald's DOW gold ratio tells us how much water is behind the dam, but it does not tell us when the dam will break. So -- Donald's indicator is very useful in its own way.

RJ -- Perhaps you can tell us when the dam will break. Donald can watch the size of the dam.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:30 - ID#26793)
Measuring things in "dollars" is just like using a rubber yardstick.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:30 - ID#432157)
What time does London FIX gold price ?????AM/PM

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:34 - ID#409349)
Bill Fleckenstein On Gold
"Golden opportunity? Because commodities are rallying and the end of the Asian world is apparently not going to happen right now, bonds got spanked for a 1-point loss today. Commodities rallied because everyone is set up in the same way, which is part of their global deflation bet. I do honestly think gold may have bottomed; it has not violated the low set at the beginning of the year. Maybe it will return to that level, but I do believe that gold will be a good investment going forward. Obviously I'm fond of silver as well. These monetary commodities have a chance to do quite well prospectively."

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:35 - ID#255151)

Agree with your basic point that we shouldn't point fingers at China, Pakistan or India. I'd do the same thing if I were in their shoes. My outrage is entirely directed toward the US.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:38 - ID#57232)
Gold Standard vs Dollar standard -- which sounds better?
Donald: I wonder why the term gold standard keeps popping up, and not the 'dollar standard'. Good thing our engineers do not design dams using the rubber yardstick of the dollar standard.

If our leaders were really honest with themselves, and with the public, they would require that the US dollar standard be defined at the National Bureau of Standards. It is possible to do this -- even factor in an allowance for a small component of inflation to 'grease the wheels'. Or a definitiion of money 'velocity'. And -- one would need to define the machinery necessary to keep the US dollar stable.

But -- I'm afraid we are stuck with the gold standard for at least another generation, given human nature.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:38 - ID#26793)
Inflation is OK for the things have to sell but not for the things you have for sale.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:40 - ID#386245)
G'day ERLE
Kind of like playing a chess game by snail mail, mate. Dang time zones. One of us has gotta give up sleeping.

Date: Wed Jun 17 1998 21:59
ERLE ( Nick@C ) ID#190411:
I tried to take a bit of your advice on some the 'stralian juniors.
The broker that I contacted said that I was nuts. The only one the he would recommend of your bunch was ECM.
Perhaps you could start up an investment club for Kicoites that have more spare change than brains.
They are very popular here is the U.S. ( Clubs, not people lacking brains; but that's another topic. )
It seems that for a while, the midsize and juniors will languish.
I'll still keep looking for an answer, though.
Aussie Dollar up against USD, but down against Au, isn't it?

Mate, I was not aware that it was your broker's money you were investing. Tell your broker that the shares I recommended are up an average of 15.4% today ( well, the ones I own anyway ) . You know why they are called brokers?? Because they are broker!! If they were any good they wouldn't be brokers. They would be sitting on the Cote d'azure sipping pina colladas ( ain't gonna look up them fancy squiggles to make them foreign words sound right ) . Find a new 'broker', mate, and do your own thing. The shares I mentioned with African holdings are almost guaranteed ten baggers, and I do not say that lightly. Why do I buy the 'juniors'? Because I do not want to double my money. I ride in ten-bagger country. We are at the most depressed time in the history of the mining industry. When the majors double ( when, not if ) , the juniors will squazuple. Just look at almost ANY junior chart covering ten years. The price swings are astronomical. Pick a company that will still be around in 5 years with heap-big ground and no market recognition, and you are gonna make HEAPS. That is not my humble opinion. I know it!! They are giving away shares in some companies for their cash in the bank--no account of huge cash-to-be in ground. Unless we descend into Mad Max III, these companies and prices will recover.

I use a discount broker ( clerk ) who charges me $49 for any purchase/sale up to $100 000. I do not ask for or take advice. If they offer any ( advice ) , I usually do the opposite. You ain't gonna make any money following the crowd ( unless of course you are a Yank and buy DOW/S&P--and then you are guaranteed 30%/annum to infinity.

Investment club?? Good idea mate. Pick some shares and I'll find a 'broker'. Cheers, N.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
Japanese automobile output falling at double-digit rates.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:44 - ID#26793)
The standards you seek were clearly defined in the U.S. Constitution. We just need to stop ignoring them.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:50 - ID#333126)

I think I must have missed your post that Erle was referring to. I only recall you recommending LVG ( which I'm now looking into, btw ) . What other Aussie juniors do you recommend?

( I like the idea of 10 baggers ( or more ) ... hehe ... )

cheers mate. :- )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:52 - ID#210282)
Logging off for chores - already!
Donald: It would be interesting if we could get Thomas Jefferson's opinion of the economic mess we are in now -- or for that matter, any of the original crafters of the Constitution or the Declaration of Independence. T Jefferson might use some words that he would never right down.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 06:55 - ID#26793)
Dollar dive (Canada) could send prices soaring.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:00 - ID#284255)

Crystal Ball
(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:05 - ID#287367)
@ Nick @ C
You remember those postcards? When I was a teen I used to have half a dozen games going at once. P-KB4 ( f4 ) . Your move, mate!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:08 - ID#284255)
Thanks - it was just an obscure thought on todays plights.
The need for greed.
Add a glimpse of the dark.

Sometimes the observation of this appals me.
The government is getting nervous. To Washington, the Y2K bug threatens to be either the end of centralized control over the lives of Americans or an opportunity to extend government's power even further.
Russia slowly waking up to millennium bug threat
Here's a guage to use to figure out how much time is needed to fix just
the mission critical systems of the US government. Below is a quote
from the GAO ( General Accounting
Office ) :
Only about 40 percent of agencies' mission-critical systems were
Year 2000-compliant in May, compared with 35 percent in February
and 27 percent in November, according to Willemssen. "If this is
to continue, it's clear that many individual mission-critical
systems will not be compliant in time," he said.
Based upon these stats, below is my extrapolation of what
I think is necessary to get the rest of the job done.

You are forgetting one signifigant thing. They posted a rate of 35% complete
in February, based upon about 7800 Mission Critical systems. They reduced the
amount of MC systems by 514 to around 7300 last month and then boasted a 40%
rate of completion. This dramatically skews the figures. They do not have
40% of those former 7800 MC systems done. But they *Do* have 40% of the lower
number done. But they are comparing apples to oranges. The baseline was 7800
systems not 7300. It is easy to reduce the number of systems that are labeled
mission critical and have your percentages go up even though you may not have
remediated any additional systems at all. If you factor in the reduction in
MC systems you will find that your numbers are even more horrendous.

Paul Milne

Your comments are on target but they are much too soft. You neglected to
mention that it is now documented that substantial amounts of federal
government remediation work is now proven to be fraudulent statments on
paper without documentation of compliance or, where documented, often
sheer fabrication. The only thing that can be stated about the
government's progress is that it is provably less than the claims. Why do
we believe the February numbers were not exaggerated regarding the
remediation levels? Knowing the government is lying about the work they
have done, what credibility is there in any of their numbers. The only
possible assumption that can be made is that they are not farther along
than they are claiming or there would be no need to lie. Playing with the
numbers provided by a known liar is nothing more than a poor form of

Allen Comstock

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:08 - ID#255151)
Move Over FEMA, Here Comes NIPC

Senator Bennett asks Defense Dept. guy about
preparation for martial law. The National
Infrastructure Protection Center has been created by Executive Order 63. NIPC is a
combined group from intelligence agencies, Secret Service, FBI and military. It is to operate in the event of a threat to the nations critical infrastructure including power, telecommunications, emergency services, and transportation. They "prefer cooperation be voluntary" from those involved in these areas. Well isn't that nice. The reason given for this order was to respond to any cyberterrorism threat. It is to be ready by 2000 ( honest ) .

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:08 - ID#347267)
PE Ratios
Just looked at the home page for the FREE Walker Market Letter; now has a long term chart of Price-Earning Ratios -- Take a look:

Kinda scary, huh??

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:35 - ID#386245)
G'day ravenfire
Mate, it is always dangerous to tout mining shares, because I can't easily pass on my trading discipline at the same time. You sometimes have to get in 'n out several times before you stay for the long haul. So with appropriate stop losses, I like the following:

Date: Thu Jun 04 1998 03:42
Nick@C ( G'day Open-Loop ) ID#386279:
Copyright  1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well, Since you asked:

Some Aussie shares high on my list.

Resolute ( RSG ) --Au and Ni
Normandy ( NDY ) --biggest in Oz ( 3rd/4th in world )
Centaur ( CTR ) --Au

Littlies ( soon to be biggies ) :
Anvil ( AVL ) --richest cu/Au/Ag deposit in the world--in Congo--if stable then super big profits
Laverton ( LVG ) --Au mine in Sumatra--shares way oversold due to Indonesian problems. They are out in the
boonies, away from the troubles--talked to manager--excellent prospects
Legend ( LEG ) and East Coast Minerals ( ECM ) --see Haggis' numerous posts on Munni Munni--rich little Ag
deposit.Got a sneaky feeling there is heaps more there than meets the eye.
Mogul ( MGL ) 20 000 000 oz Ag deposit in Mexico. Not yet discovered by the market. Going for a song.
Oxiana ( OXR ) Copper mine in Cyprus plus extremely promising Au/Ag deposits in Phillipines. Big fund in for
$5m for exploration.
Tanganyika Gold ( TGO ) --huge African holdings. Anglogold bought in at .30. Now selling for .14. I think
Anglogold knows what they're doing.
Takoradi ( TKG ) --huge ground in Africa. 20 bagger when market wakes up.

Now of course I am totally unbiased. It is merely a coincidence that I own shares in most of these companies.
Cheers, N.

PS-- TGO --big gain today on heavy volume. LEG--big gain on light volume. Fantastic report on AVL received in mail today. Directors have very large holdings. Always a good sign. Has not corrected much. Another good sign.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:40 - ID#289357)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:42 - ID#289357)
The Case for the Raging Silver Bull

Previous links:

replace the x in quotex with s to make it quotes

(Thu Jun 18 1998 07:49 - ID#386245)
G'day Crystal Ball
Bart will kill us!!


(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:01 - ID#432157)
London Gold Fix?????? what is PK4?????

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:06 - ID#284255)
Just a couple of moves away from check-mate.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:06 - ID#289357)
Chess move..

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:10 - ID#26793)
London morning gold fix $293.05

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:11 - ID#284255)
What's up with Europe???
After Asia's massive upmove today
Europe is not confirming the elation.
Contrary like, is it not.

But Europe has not been a follower of late.
More a pre-leader.

Implications are afoot.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:12 - ID#26793)
Morning precious metal comment from Europe

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:15 - ID#253228)
I have been posting daily updates on S&P500 at:

As to gold and silver, I have been toying with the idea of doing an analysis, but I need to acquire data back to the 1950's. I pulled more recent data off of this site, but have been plagued with the old "not enough time." Do you know of an internet site where weekly data going way back is downloadable?

Thanks for the comment.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:22 - ID#248180)
Sharefin & All Y2K Problem Solvers- Russia Official "Neyet Problem Yet"
Updated Thursday, June 18, 1998 at:
London 12:38 p.m.  Prague 1:38 p.m.  Moscow 3:38 p.m.

Quoteworthy: "It's a long way off." -- One Russian official, commenting on the millennium bug problem.

From Russia Today Daily Nett News

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:28 - ID#284255)
(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:29 - ID#434108)
Japan carmakers' output tumbles in May (from Yahoo-finance/international)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:30 - ID#284255)
I have recently compiled an ascii file of;
Dow, gold, silver data going back to 1910.

Send us an email and I'll forward you the data.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:32 - ID#289357)
Jeil @ gold and silver prices
Here's some REALLY long-term data for gold and silver, if this helps.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:36 - ID#376309)
Even hinting that you would post a gold chart for us and within seconds people from all around the world respond IMMEDIATELY!

I hope the below info is what you are looking for to complete the project.
(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:40 - ID#434108)
Jeil - Gold data back to '50's
You might check with:
World Gold Council
Pinnacle Data Corp.
Ira Epstein Corp./bbs
There are numerous data providers, as I'm sure you are aware.
Perhaps one of them would give the data, gratis, if it were presented/explained - that it is for a free web-site, for
educational/information purposes, only. Of course, if they provide you the data, you would include their banner/advertisement at your site...etc.etc.etc.

CSI - Commodity Systems Inc. ( FL ) ( is one of the oldest data providers for commodities; you might inquire with them, as well as numerous other data providers. Futures Magazine publishes a yearly directory,
or SourceBook, of brokers, data-providers, investment-timing-soft-ware vendors, etc. This mightt be a useful resource.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:40 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:43 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:43 - ID#284255)
If it's a long way off
Then I would say gold
Getting over $350 lies in the same category.

Time is a figment of our imagination.

Had a mate over querying this Y2k stuff.
He couldn't understand all the fuss.
So I showed him some computer code that makes up the files.
He wondered why they didn't write that in english.
Then I showed him some hex dump code of a small file.
And explained to him the simpicities of the problem.
Needless to say he went away totally confused.
But not nearly as confident.
Wonder why?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:52 - ID#50148)
I think gold still has the same fundamental problem, not enough people looking at it as a hedge against disaster, yet. Unless we get a good move UP today, then the recent move was simply a reaction to RRs move in the currency markets. As usual, the latter bodes ill winds for gold...

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:54 - ID#329186)
Anybody ever consider that the US gov may have bought lots of GOLD
Just a thought visit
go gold


(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:58 - ID#248180)
Russia Y2K Problems
Sharefin: I think the not so well informed nameless official was equally confused as your friend. The enormous problems and the outcomes are to say the least mind-blowing. The following is the article warning Russia to start responding to the millinium bugs.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 08:59 - ID#50148)
Gold chart
Well do we break the 21 DMA or not? After that, then what? You be the judge................

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:00 - ID#329186)
re us gold coorrect url

go gold
(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:00 - ID#434108)
yesterdays gold mining stocks (xau) performed poorly, for a real bull move in gold
The volume & price action, inthe shares, was feeble/anemic on Wed., w/ gold's almost $%.00 jump.

Today, there must be follow-thru on the upside, with convincing volume & price patterns on the shares... if yesterday's jump in gold is to be believed -as the start of anything more sustainable.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:01 - ID#289357)

Hmmmmmmmmm... Could be......Not to forget - AG was once a real believer in gold.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:06 - ID#43185)
one shot does not a war make
After months of threatend interventions and hinted at moves which failed
to materialize, the US move in the currency markets brought a rather
dramatic reaction on world markets and a preview of some of the kinds of
prices moves to expect if they are really serious about doing something
about the over inflated dollar, but the experiencing of that long hesitency has also brought a certain cynicism as to whether that was just
a warning shot or the first shot of a serious fusilade to come.

Whew! How was that for a sentence?

Unless they were really serious we just have another little bump in the
charts and no real change in trends.
(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:08 - ID#434108)
the burning fuse: Turkey sends war-planes to Cyprus
The "burning fuse" continues to burn:

Kosovo, the Muslim/Moslem question, Turkey vs Greece...

We may underestimate/ignore the potentially explosive situation in "the Balkans".

"Emotional-Gasoline" - in this part of the world - once ignited -
... ( -as it already is ) ... can spread like wildfire.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:15 - ID#248180)
Chris Osborne article "IS the USA buying Gold Past 3 Years?" Interesting Indeed

With the continual drop in the price of gold the question as to WHO IS BUYING ALL THE GOLD has to be raised yet again, I would like you to consider the following hypothesis:


You may think that the U.S. GOVERNMENT condemns gold at every opportunity, however that in fact may be a plan to manipulate the world's perception in order to cloak their real intentions ( and keep money pouring into U.S. Treasuries ) which is to lower the Price of Gold so that they ( USG ) can buy it up at bargain basement prices.


Let us assume that the U.S. Government has a secret objective to grab as much of the world's Gold as they can at the lowest possible price.

The first task would be do push gold to the lowest price which would require the use of derivatives/ to draw in the producers and commercial users to get the Short sales ball under way which would in turn bring in the speculators and encourage short sellers.

As soon as technical analysis says a GOLD bottom is near, bring in Euro gold sales and any other stories for a scare.


However for there to be a modicum of belief in the Swiss Claims to be selling gold, referenda aside, ( a bit Like Warren Buffet announcing last July he was planning to buy and hold Silver ) there must be a reason that could be believed.

~ The Nazi Gold Saga ~ , why has it taken so long for payments to be considered I was told about the Swiss and their Nazi Gold dealings in 1966 by a Swiss who did give me the name of a book written by a Swiss on the subject ( the name long since forgotten ) when I lived in Switzerland.

On re-reading Japan between a Rock and a Hard Spot ORACLE ( 14 July 1997 ) , it made me think that somebody in the U.S. Government must also have read this ~ since then the price of Gold has fallen even faster - remember, the longer the price is kept low the more gold can be bought by the U.S. ( and others in cahoots ) . See following URL: ( )

If you will accept the above for a moment, the Swiss would make a lot of money ( GOLD ) for their part, and the further the price of GOLD drops and the longer it goes on the more they make.

Any further comments on GOLD bottoms and it should get easier with gold holders having burnt fingers/wallets - Drag out the Swiss Gold sales once again. Ever wonder why the Swiss appear to be more cooperative with the U.S. Government with regard to banking secrecy laws of late?

Why the bank of England involvement? For large transactions to go unnoticed the loco LBM would be used for purchases executed by the UBS.

What are the benefits to the U.S. Government?

They need some form of Insurance

The binge of dollar creation will not go on forever - the 15 trillion US$ debt ( please ignore the U.S. debt to the penny site ) . Insurance in the form of much greater Gold holdings would give the U.S. Government more control over the Gold price - something they would hate to relinquish.

There will be a time when the US$ will not be the major reserve currency of the world and that may not be too far away. I do not think Asia will want to go through its current problems yet again without using hindsight to try and avoid a repetition of their current debacle - and therefore, they will see the advantages of holding gold rather than U.S. ~ IOU's.

Once the US$ is no longer the major reserve currency the problem of servicing U.S. Debt will really begin and require high interest rates. ( look what happened to the  sterling )

The U.S. probably does not like the thought that Europe at least officially owns more GOLD than the U.S.A. And would like to redress the balance in its own favor.

By vastly increasing U.S. Gold reserves at current low prices they will still have hard assets and be able to do " deals."

This hypothesis removes the question of WHO is buying gold, but adds a new question if it is the U.S. of A buying GOLD.

Anyone care to speculate on how much they could have bought ?
Chris Osborne
18 June 1998

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:16 - ID#290172)
Good morning!

Listening to a German news program on shortwave last night, discussing the contrast between the DEM being supplanted by the Euro and the Reichsmark being supplanted by the DEM in 1948. The commentary was provided by people who had actually lived through the Reichsmark experience, and of course, the reign of the DEM.
Two comments struck me ( particularly with the Y2K problem, which might be likened to a 'war/post-war' scenario.
( 1 ) "Everybody had plenty of money, but one couldn't BUY anything."
( 2 ) "All the supplier's wouldn't ship! They were waiting for the new money, in which they wished to be paid. They didn't want the old money, so they would not ship the goods."

History is never so obliging as to give us an exact repeat, but...

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:18 - ID#45173)
sharefin: Most explanations of Y2K to lay people make it sound less serious
than it is. The detail usually offered of 2000 is 1900, etc., makes it sound trivial. Deaper technical details like changes to I/O, code logic, file formats, unit and integration testing, and the like are meaningless to them. And even if they understand this stuff, I cannot explain a methodology for determining the net impact.

So, the analogy I've made up for my non-computer savvy friends is as follows:

Imagine that the entire world economy as a very complex system, like a modern car. Imagine that it is known that on a particular day 3% of the 500 trillion nuts and bolts in the car will suddenly fall off, but no one knows exactly which ones. The repair guys are running around trying to figure out which ones will fall off and how to treat each bold so it doesn't call off. Each bolt needs a different treatment to ensure it does not fall off; some bolts can be simply tightened, others need lock-tight, and so on. The repair guys don't have time to do this to all the bolts that might possibly fall off so they try to find just the critical ones -- drive train, suspension, etc.

When the day comes, there are basically three possibilities:
1 ) The car may start and drive, but definately with inconveniences, like a door that will not open without falling off and no windshield wipers.
2 ) Maybe the repair guys did not tighten all of the critical bolts, such as in the suspension and steering, because they either didn't find them or ran out of time. There's a chance that the car will still start and drive but cannot be driven safely.
3 ) There's also a chance the some bolts that hold on some seemingly insignificant things, like an oxygen sensor, falls off and the car won't start or run.

The only way to ensure that the third possibility does not occur is to have all of the repair guys identify every single suspect bolt, determine the significance of each, determine the exact fix for each suspect bolt to make sure it does not fall off, determine whether or not they have time to do it, apply the fix, and test the fix along with the fixes made to the rest of the car. All in the next year and a half.

It still doesn't tell them what's gonna happen, but it at least gives them a framework for understanding it. If you like it, your welcome to use it, of course.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:24 - ID#410215)
..... The

Donald -

The math is disingenuous. The inflated dollar you speak of has been countered by more of them. How much money did you make when coffee was a nickel? I am willing to bet the percentage of income spent on this coffee is actually less now, than when it was five cents a cup. Actually, I read an article recently that spoke of things like coffee, milk, gas, etc are cheaper now, as a percentage of income, than they were in the fifties. Even housing is cheaper per square foot than it was in the fifties.

One could have bought a cup of coffee for a nickel in the Fifties, but yearly wages may have only been 5 or 6K per year. Now these same folks make 60 - 70K per year? So coffee is .75 a cup now. It is cheaper than it was.

The ounce is an ounce in true, but I have already posted the numbers on that. Were I to offer you and ounce of gold in 1977, you would be barely breaking even ( in adjusted dollars ) after 20 years. Any other investment would have performed better.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:26 - ID#20748)
Curency intervention was to help China, not Japan.
Great article by Martin Armstrong. Go to the url below and click on the picture of Bob Rubin.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:31 - ID#284255)
Reminds me of the discussions here recently on MIG's.
Whether they are better or not.

I just read a report listing the number of chips
That have to be replaced in each plane
To get them of the ground come 2000.

Just read a report on a food retailing chain in the US
Who had to repair all their cash registers.

To replace all the chips was at a cost of approx $17k.
They thought that was OK
So put it to the side and did other remedial work.
They recently came back to it and decided to go ahead.

They found that the chips were unavailable.
After originally receiving quotes for them.
End result was they had to fork out well over 1/2 million $$$
To completely replace the whole lot of the machines.

What they thought was a possiblity
Became a non-reality.

My how the tables turn fast.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:31 - ID#45173)
panda: agree with you 100% The essential problem with gold is that
there's no broad-based demand. The money is in equities. And when the equities markets turn down, money is likely to go into bonds before PMs. Money will not go into PMs unless there is economic and political uncertainty that calls the short and long term value of equities and bonds into question. Many unpredictable possibilities loom, including the real and perceived Y2K impact, an all-out financial collapse in Asia, and war/terrorism. Frankly, I'm suprised that gold has maintained its current levels given the thin market.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:32 - ID#431263)
Currency intervention was to save BC's @ss! Japan threatened to sell US treasuries for gold and China threatened to devalue! Either one would have made BC look like an incompetent, bumbling fool, instead of a wise, well-respected world leader, diplomat and statesman! Either one would have sunk democrat's chance to take over congress this Fall! AND don't forget the cries from the UAW to lower the dollar and make US cars more competitive in the world market place.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:33 - ID#329186)
EJIshafefin. eplanation Y2K ID 4517)
The best presentation to the layman on Y2k IMHO was BBC2 Jun 9 "Disater"
which went through a contrived story starting with city broker with the approach to dec 31 1999 on 31 ( showing various problems on route ) on Dec 31 the broker called Toyko on a happy new year pretext to discover power down ( he had to communicate via sattelite link ) he lkeft work went to cellebrate with partner then London lites out at 24:00 girl gets knocked over.

On arrival in hospital most of the electronics were not working all the emergency services were overloaded .this program was shown 1t 18:50 ,40 mins long and I would think Joe public watching may have had a change in perception.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:38 - ID#431263)
It's all about Billary and Hillary! He's a master manipulator of public opinion and does only what is in his own best political interests regardless of the macro-economic consequences! He suddenly feels Asia's
pain only because it's now HIS pain! Deception, illusion and doublespeak is his stock in trade!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:43 - ID#45173)
CPO@AU: the problem with the show is that it's pure speculation
This leave it up to the viewer to decide whether the show's producers are credible or not. Each viewer's interpretation is determined more by their tendency toward optimistic or pessimistic speculation than by their ability to follow the cause and effect logic presented.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:45 - ID#290172)
Clarification -of sorts-

Item 2 of the last post, "They didn't want the old money" is viewed as a possible Asian complication. There is the real probability that the "influx of cheap Asian goods" may not appear for this reason

And sometimes the table disappears altogether! {:- ) )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:46 - ID#335190)
WAR id such a wonderful economic tool @ Reallocate the world wealth and power eh! (only jews,NOT!)
Swiss Nat'l Bank says Nazi gold aided WWII defence

GENEVA, June 18 ( Reuters ) - Switzerland's central bank, criticised for buying Nazi gold during World War Two, defended the policy on Thursday as having preserved stability in the small neutral country while war raged around it.

The Swiss National Bank acknowledged that its wartime governors deserved some of the criticism levelled in a report last month by international historians, who said the bank knew gold it was buying from Hitler's Germany might have been looted.

But the SNB again ruled out joining negotiations among Jewish groups, Holocaust victims and Swiss banks on settling Holocaust-era claims and vowed to fight any attempt to put the central bank in the dock in U.S.courts over the issue.

"It ( the governing board ) did not show enough sensitivity to the moral dimension of a possible acquisition of stolen goods," SNB Vice-Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth told a news conference.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:47 - ID#187109)
can anyone say.........CHA-CHING!$$

( the only one 'dressed' in black ) .....besides the buck ;- ) watch it rip through 16800 before it's done


go metals ( ? )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 09:55 - ID#431263)
TICK -467 and FALLING!
Market looks HEAAAVY!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:00 - ID#26793)
You are missing the point. Gold should not be thought of as just an investment. It is capital. It should not earn interest. You can't have the fruits of Capitalism without capital. There is no incentive to save capital denominated in dollars. We have created a world of so called investors who waste their precious lives and creative energies shuffling for illusions of profits. Further, they are taxed on these non-profits. They are forced to do this because the dollar is not exchangeable for gold. The true savers are the gold holders. We nerds are not just saving our own skins but will here to rescue true capitalism when the failure of Central Planned Pseudo Capitalism is apparent to everyone.

The Dow/Gold ratio exposes this illusion as it applies to the shares of the pseudo-capitalists. Rather than just a number it accurately measures the damage to the engines of production. Read the post by Prometheus at 5:19 and you will have a clear vision of where this illusion ends for all societies that attempt to outwit the forces of the market. OK?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:02 - ID#426220)

Here is an interesting hypothesis from observer Chris Osborne in London - who comments about WHO IS BUYING ALL THE GOLD THAT HAS BEEN SOLD IN THE PAST THREE YEARS ????

Osborne conjectures there may well be collusion between two major Central Banks working through there Swiss Bank cohort to accumulate GOLD.

He notes the benefits accruing to all three banks by covertly buying up all the gold sold by much small Central Banks during the last three years.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:08 - ID#431263)
Japanese don't trust their politicians. Japan wants to save ALL their banks--convoy system, instead of closing insolvent banks and auctioning off assets through an RTC-like mechanism like the US did. Didn't mention that up to half of all Japanese loans are Japanese mafia related and will never be paid back. And we want to bundle these loans together and sell them at a discount to unwary US pension and insurance funds? LOFLOL

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:09 - ID#207240)
Thanks to all for this AM's Post. I Think I might have been here before.
Dollar -- Yen -- PM's -- Whipsaw

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:11 - ID#340459)
Bill Buckler commented that POG moves with Long Bond Rates, I have noticed it to be case since last
few days, Gold has burned so many fingers that small investors keep a safe distance from it as I am convinced that this the game for Sharks and Whales, not for tuna.

Yet, this tuna still plays it hoping for a better day.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:13 - ID#410215)
..... Donald .....

I agree with most of what you say.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:14 - ID#342315)
SDRer re your 9:16
Your post made me think of an idea. You would be the only one possible to answer. This comparison is for illumination in a field of confusion. Could you compare the differences between drastic changes in the exchange rate of one currency and the exchange of a new issue to replace an existing one ? I know this is hairy, but it may turn up some worthwhile observations. Many thanx, Charlie

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:14 - ID#431263)
Anybody remember a stock called GEOTEK (GOTK)?
A highly-touted tech stock that used to trade in the low teens! You may now buy all you want at a mere 25 cents! And you thought only gold stocks
lost 98% of their value in two years! : )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:15 - ID#187109)
bright........(sunshiny day)
I have an order in right now for LONG  will get filled and en will keep it's ( current ) path........this is a leeeetle breather allowing the small fish to enter the game ;- ) uh huh. purchase a neckbrace..........


(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:15 - ID#290172)
Donald re: your @ 10:00 post --BRABO!
It was a perfect 10! {:- )

Dave in CO
(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:16 - ID#229103)
@JTF - 05:08
While turning white, Hubble reportedly said, "Vince didn't commit suicide." Surprising that ABC would report anything after Willey was dismissed by all major news media ( including ABC ) as just another liar ( of hundreds ) out to get "Honest Abe" Klinton.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:16 - ID#290172)
Your scarifying! {:- ) )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:23 - ID#342315)
SDRer re Scarifying
I know! I've been dealing with it. Can't get thru the clouds

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:38 - ID#290172)
Giving Currency-

"They" are working diligently to erase XFO and have the GF appear ONLY in terms of the SDR. This is the run-of-the-mill 'gold manipulation' of the Alice-in-Wonderland Group: a rose by another name becomes a dandelion.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:44 - ID#340459)
All this intervention by Fed and BOJ (and other CB's) to stabilize paper currency evaluations
portends a choppy global market for all investments, The Doctors have been called in as the patient is sick, it might delay but cannot avoid the inevitable. The equities market may have been up substantially yesterday around the globe but it looks far from steady in the future.
Stocks are bound to come down steadily all through this year or atleast all through Summer, maybe this is better than a sudden crash that would wipe out many businesses and people savings. Sadly, this current situation is not helping gold for the simple reason that people are wary of putting money in a consistently depreciating asset and it's performance over last 20 years leaves much to be desired thereby it is unable to lure investors of the day. If our generation does not benefit from Gold investing before the millenium and if the world does not witness this bounty to goldbugs, I doubt if the next generation would even discuss it next century. As even today majority of young investors have been totally brainwashed against this barbaric relic and have no clue of great depression and it's impact.

The world is no longer looking for enduring qualities in anything, our psych has changed to a disposable society where you use and throw away, whether it is kleenex or marriage. No one today repairs anything they just replace it. No one cherishes the old, look at the dumping of elderly in segregated habitation. look at the short time span of fame and fads these days, their live spans are blinking of an eye. We have come to stage where we enter only mutually beneficial relationships and joys of giving and sharing is waning and a new mean spirit of individualism is evolving eroding the family, fraternity and sense of belonging, IMHO.

Go Gold Go..

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:44 - ID#187109)
*en Fill*
Track this one Crystall Bally......

Sept en:

bought 7700 call

sold 7900 call

at 40pts = 500 + commish.......

now trading at 39pts.....doh!

Tick-Tock....Tick-Tock....that mouse will run up the clock..... ( ? ) chase this thingy....... ( ohno! )


go sugar ( ! )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:46 - ID#284255)
Why is this so?

Seems that the Xau is just getting cheaper.
Doesn't look like no bull yet.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 10:55 - ID#335190)
SUBPRIME LENDING - 250 % ANNUAL - AS COSTS, NOT INTEREST @ Derivatives etc. Good read.







10:00 A.M.
OCTOBER 21, 1997

Subprime Lending

Faced with strong competition and shrinking margins to high quality borrowers, many banks are pursuing subprime lending strategies. Subprime lending most commonly refers to auto, home-equity, mortgage, and secured credit card loans to borrowers who have blemished or limited credit histories. Generally, the characteristics of a subprime borrower include a history of paying debts late, personal bankruptcy filings, or an insufficient credit record.

In the past, subprime lending was primarily the domain of a limited number of finance companies. The number of subprime lenders has surged in recent years as more companies have been attracted by significantly higher rates and fees earned on subprime loans. Large and small banks are now participating in credit card, auto, home-equity, and mortgage subprime lending, although the extent of involvement is difficult to quantify because subprime loans are not delineated in bank and thrift financial reports.

The lack of a standard definition for a "subprime" loan makes estimates of the extent of the market somewhat arbitrary.

However, as reflected in Chart 4, some sources estimate that, during 1996, originations of subprime loans secured by residences, including both home-equity and mortgage loans, amounted to almost $150 billion.
This compares to the estimated $800 billion in originations of conventional mortgages. Subprime auto loans have been estimated to range between $75 billion and $100 billion, or about 20 percent of total auto loans outstanding.

Financial Derivatives

Using the FDIC's definitions, in the five years prior to June 30, 1997, the notional amount of off-balance-sheet derivatives at commercial banks has increased by more than 175 percent, from $8.4 trillion to $23.3 trillion.

Currently, 459 commercial banks, down from a peak of 679 in early 1993, hold at least some off-balance-sheet derivatives,

but the seven largest dealer/traders account for 93 percent of all off-balance-sheet derivatives.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:00 - ID#340459)
Dow,S&P, Nasdaq all negative now, Yen falling again (back over 137), The CB currency actions are
always short term fixes. If the sentiment is negative Even Fed cannot intervene indefinately.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:09 - ID#413109)
Time is a factor
So I haven't studied my ton of charts as much as i would like, but
from what I see, and perceive, the markets are headed up to either
test the highs or possibly go to new highs. The PMs seem to show that
they are going in the same direction, as are the currencies. By the latter I'm referring to DM SFr,Yen ETC. Bonds look down from these
As I haven't had time to read the posts, I trust that I'm not repeating
what others have said. Also as I've mentioned before watch the NIKKEI
with all the negative news, it should and seems to be going UP!!!
I've been charting this baby for the past 8 years and studying its
rythms, and my feeling I've stated before. Now we'll see.
We do live in interesting times. the y2k thingy is keeping my time
very occupied. Golf for excercise and pleasure is also time consuming.

C'est la vie, nest pas?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:12 - ID#402148)
AU up 20 cents
...dollar must be gonna turn down again very soon. Fred Bergstein catalyst on BC in DC?


(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:14 - ID#333126)
Nick@C -- thanks, mate
I'll just add those you mentioned to my watch list ( those not already on it at least ) .

Personally, I'm still gonna take a cautious view on purchasing spec'y junior companies, but ... I like the risk/reward potentials of some of these el cheapo companies ;- )

( heck, won't lose all that much if they do drop cos' I'm not gonna put blood money in 'em ... but if I believe in blue skies for the POG like the goldbug trend, there's lotsa upside potential... hehe )


(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:14 - ID#284255)
Life in the pits.
An engineer dies and reports to the pearly gates. St. Peter checks his
dossier and says, "Ah, you're an engineer -- you're in the wrong place."

So the engineer reports to the gates of hell and is let in. Pretty soon,
the engineer gets dissatisfied with the level of comfort in hell, and
starts designing and building improvements. After a while, they've got
air conditioning and flush toilets and escalators, and the engineer is a
pretty popular guy.

One day God calls Satan up on the telephone and says with a sneer, "So,
how's it going down there in hell?"

Satan replies, "Hey, things are going great. We've got air conditioning
and flush toilets and escalators, and there's no telling what this
engineer is going to come up with next."

God replies, "What??? You've got an engineer? That's a mistake -- he
should never have gotten down there; send him up here."

Satan says, "No way. I like having an engineer on the staff, and I'm
keeping him."

God replies "Send him back up here or I'll sue."

Satan laughs uproariously and answers, "Yeah, right. And just where are
YOU going to get a lawyer?"

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:16 - ID#402148)
Sot at 294 so...
normalized August contract should be trading at around 296.50. Pressure is coming up from spot purchases, the futures are gonna have to pop up.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:16 - ID#269207)
@ sharefin OKAY
You winnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn lol

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:18 - ID#402148)
Here's where the shorts
..soil their boxers.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:23 - ID#253153)
A message from Osaka, Japan
This message is being sent to you from Osaka , Japan ( I'm on vacation ) where the sun is shining but the people are desperate , seeking ecomomic solutions to stop their collapsing yen. Unemployment in Japan is mounting as businesses close due to lack of working capital. Yes, deflation is spreading and the average Japanese household is blaming their government for all their problems. The best of luck to all of you.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:23 - ID#269207)
@ sharefin
That's worse than the Preacher who was determined to save the devil,
until it was pointed out to him by another preacher, he better find another job, because if if he did succeed, he was going to need one, as all preachers would be looking for one. OH, what would they ever do if the devil was saved?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:27 - ID#227168)
Droopy and Doopy Do Do
Marching towards the end of June ---Away to help with all the Window dressing Flower seeds anybody ?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:29 - ID#270247)

Most of what you say I agree with. Today's America is based on consumption and being able to throw soemthing away in order to consume again. Most of this is due to the fact that no one in the last few generations have experienced any truly difficult economic times. They do not understand that you cannot get something from nothing.

However, this seemed to be true of many people right before the Depression. Fads, Fame and Fortune came quickly and left quickly. It wasn't until that generation lived through very difficult times that it learned how to deal with them and prepare for them.

Unfortunatly these lessons were forgotten quickly. People were told a Depression like that could never happen again as long as they keep working hard and spending hard. They were told the Government will always be there to bail them out of hardship and that as long as they "follow the rules" everything will be okay. Gold was taken away from the people who best understood its value. Then when it was returned, the price was inflated, and finally, the rug was pulled out from under them. Thus gold became a "dangerous" and "unstable" investment. Reality once again being manipulated to keep people "following the rules."

The problem for the government and others trying to keep everything status quo is that they can't. Everything changes over time. A society based on consumption cannot continue forever. Eventually you run out of things to consume. Eventually people get tired of consuming ( or more likly, working in order to consume ) . Thus things start to change and what people thought were safe and secure investments aren't. That is when those who saved something like gold will step forth and offer up capital to rebuild a ( hopefully ) sounder and less consumption oriented economy.

No one can say for sure what the future holds, but it does hold change. I believe the change will be good for gold in the long run. It has survived many more disasters and collapses than AT&T, Yahoo, or the Fiat Dollar. I think it will survive this one.

The masses may not want change or recognize it when it is happening but they really don't have a choice. All we can try to do is work for a positive change rather than a negative one.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:29 - ID#340459)
@Mike Sheller, USA was not caught off guard, Pakistan had been alerting US of impending Nuke tests
by India several months prior to the event. Moreover the Hindu Nationalist Party ( BJP ) in Power had it as a top priority in their election manifesto. This nuclear aspirations and intention was openly declared during election campaigns by the Prime Minister Advani and other minions of the party in ALL their campaigns.

I wonder how could US be asleep at the switch just check any BJP / Indian election promise through Newspapers at any library,
I heard that assurance and nod/ wink came to India came from Israel, who are forming a very close strategic alliance since past few years. The media here reports warped news. Iran was also buying BULK of their armaments from Israel during war with Iraq. None of this gets reported sadly...............................................

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:32 - ID#286230)
Clinton's Worried
To put the 2 Billion in context How much is a Stealth Bomber?

Asian crisis balloons U.S. trade deficit

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The U.S. trade deficit soared to a record $14.5 billion US in April as the
Asian financial crisis battered U.S. exporters, pushing down sales of everything from
commercial aircraft to farm products.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported today that the April deficit was 9.5 per cent higher
than the March imbalance of $13.2 billion, the previous record.
While imports declined a slight 0.9 per cent in April after hitting an all-time high the month
before, U.S. exports fell even more sharply, dropping 2.6 per cent as the deepening
recessions in many Asian markets cut into U.S. sales.
The widening trade deficit has been the major impact on the U.S. economy from the currency
crisis that struck Asia a year ago.
While that drag on the economy has been largely offset by booming consumer demand, the
Clinton administration has grown concerned that consumer confidence could be rattled if the
Asian crisis spreads to other parts of the world and triggers a crash in the high-flying U.S.
stock market.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:38 - ID#432157)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:45 - ID#340459)
@KJR - Agreed, my friend - less than 17% of the World (US/Europe) consume more than 70% of all
global resources - I wonder what will happen if 100% of the world start living this way as this consumer culture model is being copied from kremlin to kalmanistan.....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:46 - ID#270236)
U.S. trade numbers are misleading.
Don't believe that U.S. imports are not being affected by the Asian
crisis. The figures are reported in $U.S. On a unit basis our imports
from Asia have increased 30% since the crisis began. The reason the
trade numbers show a decline is that import prices have declined so
much that it offsets the increased volume.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:48 - ID#212323)
Watching so many national economies falter is worrisome to US officials
primarily because it has to ability unlike anything else to collapse the fiat system of currency. It becomes all too obvious that the USDollar is INHERENTLY NO DIFFERENT from the other paper currencies that have gone up in smoke.
Donald, your 10:00 was a fine piece of work.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 11:59 - ID#284255)
Dave - so what do we get for Bill - a lawyer - a priest - or an engineer?????
Bill Clinton Sings!
This should be sung to the tune "A Few of My Favorite Things" from the
movie "The Sound of Music"

Blow jobs and land deals in backwater places,
Big Macs and French fries and girls with big faces,
Lots of nice cleavage that makes willie spring,
These are a few of my favorite things
Susan McDougal and Jennifer Flowers,
Horny young interns who wile 'way the hours,
Profits from futures that Hillary brings,
These are a few of my favorite things
Beating the draft board and getting elected,
Naming to judgeships some hacks I've selected,
Conspiracy theories that blame the right wing,
These are a few of my favorite things
Golfing with Vernon and suborning perjury,
Falling down drunk that required knee surgery
Stars in the White House who come here to sing,
These are a few of my favorite things
Meeting with Boris and Helmut and Tony,
States of the Union with lots of baloney,
Winning debates and the joy of my flings,
These are a few of my favorite things
When that Jones bites,
When Ken Starr stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
I simply remember my favorite things,
And then I don't feel so bad

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:01 - ID#93130)
Your 10.00 is well put. Thank you.

The Hermit
(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:03 - ID#374232)
@ Donald
Your post at 10:00 says it all! Well said indeed. Thank you.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:09 - ID#335190)
Subprime lending @ USURY LAWS - Consumer protection is politically incorrect EH! WHAT'S FAIR?
Title Loans of America is financed, in part, with credit from well-known institutions. They include a subsidiary of Union Planters Corp., one of the 50 largest banks in the U.S., and Fleet Capital, a subsidiary of Fleet Financial Group.

The industry has become a political force in some states. A lobbyist and former speaker in the Florida House reportedly helped draft that state's 1995 title-lending law, which allows annual interest rates of 264 percent.

Since then, the industry, mainly Title Loans of America, has given more than $94,000 to Florida legislators in both parties.

For two years, lawmakers have refused to pass reform legislation, even after their own task force recommended repealing the 1995 law.

In Georgia, lenders legally charge up to 25 percent per month in interest, or 300 percent per year. The title-lending industry is expanding nationally. A driving force has been Georgia-based Title Loans of America.

Last year the U.S. Public Interest Research Group conducted a 17 state survey of rental-purchase stores. The nonprofit consumer group estimated the average effective annual percentage rate on merchandise at 100 percent, with some stores charging as much as 275 percent.

Forty-five states have laws that prevent such rates from being subject to interest laws--business don't even have to disclose the annual percentage rate. That's because the industry has convinced states that their rates aren't interest, but fees for services such as free delivery and repairs.

The stocks of these companies--some of whose profits are growing faster than Microsoft's--are part of the portfolios of myraid pension funds and mutual-fund companies, including Fidelity, Janus, and Oppenheimer. Your bank and insurance company may also invest capital in these companies--OR OWN THEM.

"POVERTY INDUSTRY INC." ------- Be quiet....Consume...And Die

FWIW.....Take Care.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:13 - ID#350179)
India's potential nuclear arsenal is bigger than Britain's

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:25 - ID#287186)
Prometheus - Terms of Surrender
re: your 05:59 to my 03:05
A white flag 30cm x 50cm x 1cm
of the white metal {Ag}
featuring a relief casting of
"Don't Tread On Me" but with a
Squirrel instead of a rattler!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:30 - ID#254269)
Been checking on Kitco too much lately; wore out my keyboard and had to go get
another one.

The Hatt
(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:33 - ID#364255)
See USA GOLD for details. GREAT NEWS!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:36 - ID#342315)
Anybody re SBC & Whiteacre
Is anybody familiar with Ed Whitacre at Sbc Communications and an attempt at takeover of Ameritech? Please respond

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:44 - ID#335190)
Inflation? OR Deflation? @ Not To Worry EH!
Loonie slides again under weak commodity prices, Asian woes

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The loonie was treading water this morning, holding just above the 68 cents US mark after sinking overnight on foreign markets.

The loonie, which remains under relentless pressure from economic upheaval in Asia and a powerful U.S. greenback, was trading at about 68.12 cents US in late morning trading, down nearly a third of a cent from Wednesday.

New trade figures released this morning emphasized the forces weighing down the loonie. Canada's trade surplus fell $600 million between March and April, with exports to Japan dropping 49 per cent since January 1997.

The trend towards falling exports to Asia intensified in the first quarter. Exports of coal and related products to recession-ravaged Japan were off 83.9 per cent.

Dave in CO
(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:45 - ID#229103)
@Sharefin - great song
Can picture Julie Andrews belting that one out. Is this one of your Dad's?

Go nat. res. stocks.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:46 - ID#340459)
Nuke disarray in Mother Russia
Russians step up security for
nuclear materials

June 17, 1998
Web posted at: 7:03 p.m. EDT ( 2303 GMT )

From Moscow Bureau Chief Jill

MOSCOW ( CNN ) -- In a nightmare
scenario from the recent movie "The
Peacemaker," terrorists steal a
Russian nuclear warhead from a train
and detonate it, to the horror of the
heroine, played by Nicole Kidman.

How likely is this to happen? One expert, former U.S. National Security
Council staffer Jessica Stern, says it is "very, very unlikely" -- but possible.

"Very, very unlikely isn't good enough," says Stern, upon whom the Kidman
character was based.

In the aftermath of the Cold War,
terrorists have so far not been able
to steal any of the thousands of
nuclear-tipped missiles from the old
Soviet Union's arsenal.

However, what may be more vulnerable to terrorists is nuclear material --
vast stockpiles of plutonium and highly-enriched uranium. The Soviets alone
produced enough to make 40,000 nuclear devices.

Lebed: Some 'suitcase' nukes missing

Commandos from the Russian security service, the FSB, train for possible
terrorist attacks.

Russian officials have reported two dozen thefts or attempted thefts of
nuclear-related items. U.S. officials have confirmed seven nuclear smuggling
incidents, with all of the nuclear material involved recovered.

Another concern are so-called "suitcase" nukes, small nuclear devices
developed by the United States and the Soviet Union.

Alexander Lebed, Russian President Boris Yeltsin's former national security
adviser, says more than 100 of these "suitcase" nukes are unaccounted for --
a charge vehemently denied by the Russian government.

Yet, Russian officials concede that nuclear installations across the vast
country are increasingly vulnerable.

Potential high for black-market sales

The old Soviet security system was based on protecting the facilities from
external threats, by relying on guards, gates and guns. But today, the most
serious threat may be internal.

Russia's former atomic energy minister, Viktor Mikhailov, says that with the
transition to a market economy, nuclear-sector employees who have
financial problems could steal nuclear components, more or less freely, and
sell them on the black market.

Nuclear material can be worth millions of dollars -- a huge temptation for
Russian scientists who often earn just $100 a month.

To combat the problem, Russian and U.S. officials are working together on
a program to upgrade security systems at more than 50 nuclear sites
throughout the old Soviet Union.

At one nuclear reactor in Moscow, the U.S. Department of Energy has paid
for and installed a state-of-the-art security system designed to catch
would-be smugglers before they can remove any material from the premises.

"If we fail to deal collectively with international terrorism, we may face new,
quasi-terrorist states," warns Aleksei Arbatov, a member of the Russian

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:53 - ID#267344)
Look! A half-way objective report of the Freemen by th Associated Press!
Prosecution Rests in Freemen Trial 6:51 a.m. EDT
BILLINGS, Mont. -- Now that prosecutors have rested their case, Montana Freemen, their sympathizers, their informants and even FBI agents are expected to appear as defense witnesses for 12 of the anti-government extremists.

In this age, one can almost determine the outcome of an event by the type of press coverage ( or lack thereof ) it gets. Could they stand a chance?
- c

(Thu Jun 18 1998 12:54 - ID#43185)
testing the mettle
The yen vultures apparently didn't get burned quite enough and are
slowly moving the dollar back up against the yen ( more carefully this
time ) to see if the US will continue firm in it's resolve to intervene
when and how it deems neccesary.

Meanwhile ... back at the economy. The effect of the asian crises on US
company earnings is spreading rapidly. If the US intervenes very heavily
it will be very inflationary and the resulting increase in costs for
raw materials will have an effect on already thin profit margins.

Markets are going to be volatile as the thrust and riposte of big money
versus big government continues.

Just like in the game of shorts versus longs, eh?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:03 - ID#286230)
C$ falls today
Did Canada sell more gold?

Crystal Ball
(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:03 - ID#287367)
@ EB
My brother, although I would have waited for 140-141 en/dollar before putting on the spread, in the final analysis, the en will undoubtedly appreciate against the dollar in the intermediate term. I just hope you don't get stopped out waiting for fulfillment of your objective. Bon chance. CB

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:16 - ID#343171)
kiwi: ECB Reserves
Earlier this month ECB head Wim Duisenberg said the Bank's council had reached a consensus that between 10 and 15 percent of the central bank reserves would be in gold. The council will also suggest 20% bat guano, 40% pork, pork by-product and grissle, with the final 30 percent being 'inert material'.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:29 - ID#194311)
the big losers so far ...are in europe....tick,tick,tick,
European banks may have to make further provisions for Asia crisis

PARIS, June 18 ( AFP ) - European banks have been weakened by the
Asian crisis and may have to set aside further provision to cover
bad loans, analysts say.
European banks provided almost half the 381 billion dollars in
loans to Asia ( outside Japan ) by foreign organisations, compared
with 30 percent for Japanese banks and less than 10 percent for US
Some 60 percent of the total loans are due to be reimbursed
within the year, according to the Bank for International Settlements
( BIS ) .
German banks were the most exposed to crisis-hit Asian countries
at the end of 1997, with outstanding loans of almost 49 billion
dollars, followed by French banks with 43 billion, British banks
with 32 billion and the Dutch with 17 billion, the BIS said.
"My feeling is that the banks will need to make further
provision for their exposure in Asia," and "it looks to be Thailand
and Indonesia where they could lose most money," he said.
Analysts Goldman Sachs have warned that HSBC and Standard
Chartered, after benefitting from a short respite, could be hit by a
further wave of currency speculation in Asia, centred notably on the
Hong Kong dollar peg to the US currency.
Goldman Sachs also warned that the two banks' share performance
could suffer significantly.
But analyst Anita Linzeisen at Girozentrale said that the
"greatest risk still hangs over Deutsche Bank," adding that while
German banks' provisions so far will be enough to cover risks in
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, they may not stretch
to problems in Japan.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:30 - ID#246224)
Good to see the interaction between Donald and RJ
As it all should be here, whether the result is leaning either to agreement or disagreement matters not. A good model of all of us. Passions may arise, but should never lead. Instead, they should be put in harness to do the work of a servant, never to be our master.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:34 - ID#229277)
Gollum: The Invisible Hand vs The Grabbing Hand
Who's gonna win? Ok, I have to mix metaphores to answer my own question. I get the impression that the Fed had to get their timing just right to acheive the desired effect with the yen intervention. Too soon or too late would either have cost a lot more or have resulted in the opposite effect. Doing this right takes a lot of attention, like flying through a storm. The economic and political air is already very busy with downdrafts and cross winds, so the opportunity for pilot error is high and getting worse.

I'm thinking of graphing the incidence of downgraded versus upgraded EPS announcements weekly for the past year. It'll take me a while to do, but I bet it might serve as a viable soft leading indicator. Do you think it's worth my time?


(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:35 - ID#194311)
RR...tough times no? gold?

Good ol' boy
(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:38 - ID#26362)
Thanks for the jokes sharefin. Anyone know the price of gold and silver. Thanks!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:50 - ID#93232)
drug money
A question arose for me this a.m. after having a conversation with a friend about the new dollar bills we have here in the states. He stated that the motive behind the US governments issuance of new currency was not only an anti-counterfeiting move, but to eventually move against all the cash $$$ being held by drug cartels. Given that the US Treasury doesn't know where the money they print goes and that so little of it is in circulation at any given time, and furthermore that the illicit drug industry is one of the largest businesses in the world ( if not the largest ) , what would be the effect of the drug cartels in effect selling off their dollars for, say, gold. Of course, I've got to think it is in their best interest to have a stable dollar to some degree ( the logistics of doing a large transaction in bullion would be immense ) . But I wonder what effects, largely hidden, this illegal industry has on our currency and financial markets.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:57 - ID#210235)
@Interesting look at yesterday's yen intervention

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 13:57 - ID#250297)
Coin Question
TO ALL WHO KNOW OR CARE ABOUT COINS: As a followup to a question I posed for a couple of friends awhile ago regarding the best merchants of junk silver coins ( 2% over spot plus shipping seems to be the going rate ) , one of them recently got a flier jointly put out by Gary North ( of Y2K fame ) and Camino coins. They have come up with a package of supposedly extremely liquid coins they feel would be most useful in time of a Y2K crisis. It consists of:

200 US Silver 50 cent pieces minted before 1965
400 US Silver 25 cent pieces minted before 1965
1000 US Silver 10 cent pieces minted before 1965
50 US Peace Dollars m inted 1922-1935
50 US Morgan Dollars minted 1921
2 1 oz Krugerrands
5 British gold Sovereigns ( approx 1/4 oz ) minted before 1933

For this they want $3,525.00 which includes UPS shipping.

They also have another package which is the same as the above but also contains 2 Liberty $20 gold pieces in Extra Fine Condition - Price: $4,450. ( Shipping incl. )

Question: Does this seem like a reasonable deal? If so, do such coins constitute a proper hedge against Y2K or would junk silver still be a better bet? Neither of my friends knows enough about coins to be able to judge, so I said I'd ask my buddies, the experts at Kitco. Thanks for any info.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:01 - ID#246224)
The essential problem of modern finance is ..
Adding a thought or two here to ( our ) The Donald's very plain and strong argument @10:00.

Regarding the modern vision of finance, essentially, there is no safe way to store one's wealth. There is no defacto, recognized vehicle to use as the 'bank' of one's labor or shrewdness.

The parable of the 'talents' which the Lord Jesus Christ spoke to Isreal is a parable in which a master apportions 'talents' or rings of gold ( approx 132 troy poounds each, hence the ring form for easier handling ) to his various servants. They in turn seek opportunities to exchange the gold for goods which are stored and traded when times are leaner, thus increasing a profit. The goods sold were paid with gold by weight. Lastly the gold was returned as 'talents' to the master, who had returned from travel. This picture was the way people did business all the time. Indeed, gold was capital. It was the bank. Profit was only had when one produced or traded above cost. The capital and profit was returned to 'the bank' of gold by weight.

The only time there was devaluation of gold was if it was found to be alloyed. The refiner was hired to prove the gold. Only the gold which was pure survived, else pure gold was returned less in weight than what as deliverd for testing. ( To the embarressment and dishonor of the proferrer )

In today's system we have no anchor. And so one must continually run on a treadmill to stay even. This of course exposes our 'capital' to risk, since even ( as we shall see shortly ) the USA will see a destruction of its bonds and currency. There is no safe haven, yet. But times will return gold to its role as the 'First Incorruptable Bank of Personal and National Captial'.

How sad that we will learn this lesson in a very painful way.

This is why gold will NOT be confiscated this time around. Whereas earlier in this century the nations of the world sought to keep people from destroying a banking system which operated on a factional gold reserve system, this time nations will encourage the use of gold as the anchor to keep the worthless banking system from being destroyed by its own self contradiction.

The Gulf States now declare that they will match the EMU percentage of gold reserves. Those States, with their ultra low oil production costs, have a very significant reserve requirement. Why is it they have been building an island fortress to house gold trading in the Persian Gulf? Why is it that they announce their reserves are not as high as the proposed EMU ( and in need of increasing them ) ? Why is it we can not connect these dots???

I suppose we will hear from ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) that this is the major announcement of endorsement from Arabian oil that they have accepted the EURO as the new oil settlement currency.

Interestin gtimes, indeed!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:03 - ID#210235)
@Hey, what happened to that nice counter-trend rally?
If it's fizzling this fast, it's going to scare the fleet of foot.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:09 - ID#233199)
@Allen 14:01 Do you have a source for this?
Allen 14:00

"The Gulf States now declare that they will match the EMU percentage of gold reserves....."

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:09 - ID#242325)
Invested a little in gold funds yesterday, but decided to hedge by also purchasing a long-term T-bond fund. And of course gold stocks are down and T-bonds are up today.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:11 - ID#194311)
Prometheus....nice catch...
wonder what RR's position is on Gold as a world reserve currency?

Good ol' boy
(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:14 - ID#26362)
Anyone know the price of Gold and Silver

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:16 - ID#246224)
See scroll down to the second posting for today. A real mind bender.

Good ol' boy
(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:19 - ID#26362)
Thanks Allen(USA)
Not exactly a run away!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:19 - ID#194311)
yen slipping back, DOW struggling,
PM's solid...even strong.....could be something's changed.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:28 - ID#260108)
Gold Backing
Does anyone know to what extent the US $ is currently backed by
gold. As they are continuing to print more and more money
their gold/$ ratio has to have dropped considerably unless they
have being buying gold, as suggested in a earlier post....?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:28 - ID#254269)
Greenspan going to Japan in July ;

as tolerant 1 would say, "Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?"

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:30 - ID#410198)
Strad Master...a lot depends on what you think is a fair market commission a quick read,it looks
like 15-20% this is based on silver @ 5.25 and gold @ 293, I have a Y2K package as well 50 x $5.00 American golden eagles plus 20 $1.00 American Silver Eagles shipped and insurance $2000.00 my profit $100 or 5%

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:35 - ID#254269)

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:35 - ID#252150)
Japan@Almost apocalyse now.
Armstrong's take on the recent currency intervention & the utter imposibility of any chance of a successfull resolution of the crisis there is absolutely chilling.

I started posting my extremely negative views of the situation there at least a year ago, but up until the last couple months I thought that they would somehow manage to save their banking system a la resolution trust bailout. Armstrong figures it would take 1 trilion to bail them out. Too many zeros. With their deficit already over 6% & their debt alrady over 100% of their GDP, & then put the mafia into the equation & the situation is completely hopeless.

It boggles the mind, how such an intelligent hardworking people could end up facing such a grim situation. Once again, the parasitic class through there greed & sheer bungling, has sold them out. My daughter-in-law is Japanese living here & it breaks my heart to think of the grim future her relatives & fellow Countrymen are facing.

Even if Armstrong's prognostications prove to be only 1/2 as bad, then they will be in a severe depression within a couple of years & the $U.S. will be at 200 Yen. From here on I won't even entertain the idea of buying the JY but will just be looking for an entry point to sell it.
Great fortunes will be made in the currencies over the next several years, but it will take deep pockets & nerves of steel, because of the constant threats of intervention as futile as they may be.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:35 - ID#254269)
US trade deficit ballons ;

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:38 - ID#254269)
Yen; does anyone know how much RR spent buying yen ? Have not seen a figure
mentioned, but then my computer was down for a day or so.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:39 - ID#176200)
You had asked me a few days ago what Pat Gorman did, He is also a
numi's and bullion broker in Tempe az. He also has a weekly radio program
on KFNN ( Phoenix ) on sunday mornings @ 10 am called Hard Money Watch. Sorry I did not respond earlier.

Regards, O.L.

not speaking for my employer.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:41 - ID#426220)

World-acclaimed analyst Dr. Bryan Taylor has graciously allowed us to share his erudite research.

"Could This Year Be the Next 1929? - World Stock Markets in the 1920s

In view of the massive volatility demonstrated by Wall Street in recent weeks, LOOKING BACKWARD LOOKING FORWARD might be the most prudent action of all investors.

Everyone knows about 1929. That was the year the market
crashed. The real crash. Not that fake crash in 1987, but the real
thing that led to the Great Depression. People jumped out of
windows. Investors went bankrupt. COULD IT ALL HAPPEN AGAIN?!

Dr. Taylor analyze one of the most famous bull markets from a
world perspective by researching what occurred in all major world stock exchanges during the GREAT CRASH. It is indeed a historical treatise - a keeper!

He examines the five factors which can cause Major Bear markets: economic
declines and political chaos, speculative blow-offs, high inflation
or hyper-inflations, and the culmination of secular tops which build
up in the world's stock markets over time. Which of these do we see today?!

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

Crystal Ball
(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:44 - ID#287367)
@ Beamer
The answer to your question is simple. The U.S. dollar is not backed by even one nanogram of gold. You cannot take your paper money to the Treasury window and have it redeemed for gold. Period.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:46 - ID#344225)
@ AVALON RE: BOJ & US Attempt to prop up the Yen
The following article mentions the amount spent by
the BOJ and US in attempts to Prop up the ailing Yen.

The Economics of Mickey Mouse

Der Fuhrer Saves Asia

Sells Dollars to Drive Up Yen Value

WASHINGTON -- The United States took global financial markets by surprise Wednesday, joining
Japan in buying yen to stop the precipitous fall of the Japanese currency. President Clinton said he
hoped the move would stem the worsening Asian economic crisis.

The two countries spent an estimated $4 billion worth of dollars in a coordinated purchase of yen in
the foreign-exchange markets, pushing up the yen more than 5 percent within hours. The stock
markets reacted exuberantly, and the Dow Jones industrial average surged 164.17 points, or nearly 2
percent, erasing most of its steep losses earlier in the week on apprehensions about Japan's

Speaking briefly in the Rose Garden Wednesday morning, Clinton said he approved the rare action
to sell dollars and buy yen after speaking by telephone with Japan's prime minister, Ryutaro
Hashimoto, near midnight on Tuesday. The president said Hashimoto committed to specific economic
changes that go beyond Japan's past pledges.

But a list of actions released by the Japanese Finance Ministry hours later appear to restate and go
only modestly beyond Japan's past agreements to deregulate the economy, clean up a banking
system awash in $600 billion worth of bad debts, and change the tax system to stimulate an economy
suffering its worst downturn in the postwar era.

"We've got a chance to turn that situation in Asia around before it gets any worse," Clinton said
Wednesday. "America needs a strong, growing, stable economy in Asia."

The action was evidently motivated, as well, by public statements from China, where Clinton begins a
nine-day visit next week, that it might be forced to devalue its own currency if the yen continued to

At a White House meeting on Tuesday night, Clinton's top economic and security aides warned that a
Chinese devaluation could touch off a far more fearsome phase of the Asian crisis, which began
nearly a year ago with sharp devaluations of some Southeast Asian currencies.

While the president defended the U.S. move, some members of his Cabinet remained skeptical that
Hashimoto would deliver on the vague promises he made Wednesday. The decision to intervene at all
was hotly debated inside the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin had tentatively decided not to recommend any action on
Tuesday evening, but changed his mind only an hour before making a final recommendation to the
president. Rubin was ultimately swayed to act because of last-minute Japanese offers for a few more
specific commitments, and indications that traders in the currency markets, who had battered the yen
to a series of eight-year lows in recent selloffs, were beginning to buy yen again.

That was a turnaround that Rubin, a former investment banker and currency trader, believed he
could exploit and accelerate.

But the real motivation was a growing sense in Washington and in capitals around Asia that the
continued fall of the yen could richochet to markets around the world, further destabilizing Russia,
China and Latin America -- and perhaps then even the United States. "The chances were remote,"
Rubin said Wednesday, speaking with his customary caution. But he said that if a major crisis were to
develop, "the effects in our own nation could be great."

Currency traders said the intervention, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
appeared to be on the order of $1.5 billion to $2 billion of dollar sales for yen, with a simultaneous
move of similar magnitude by the Bank of Japan, the central bank there.

That is far less than the $20 billion Japan spent in April, with little effect, to support its own currency.

But the psychological effect of the American action Wednesday -- and the suggestion that more is on
the way -- was immediate, if perhaps temporary. The Japanese currency, which touched 146 to the
dollar earlier this week, fell back to about 137, a 5.2 percent drop that returned it to the levels of a
month ago. The Dow Jones average, which had suffered a series of setbacks over the lpast few
weeks as fears increased that the Asian crisis is entering a new phase, soared. Other stock indexes
also increased.

Still, it is far from clear that the joint effort by the Federal Reserve and Japanese would offer more
than a respite from what an senior administration official called "a massive crisis of confidence
among investors in Japan."

John Lipsky, chief economist at Chase Manhattan Bank, said, "The timing and the context suggest a
finger in the dike" -- a view echoed by many traders, who doubted that the yen's bounce back could
last in the absence of a major change of course by Japan.

Rubin had told Congress last week that currency interventions were of limited use unless investors
are "convinced by the economic fundamentals." That means a series of unpopular steps to clean up
the Japanese economy -- bank closings, corporate downsizing, big deficit spending by the government
-- that few Japanese politicians want to even discuss in public before an election for the upper house
of Parliament in mid-July.

Rubin insisted at the White House briefing Wednesday that he was not backing away from the
Clinton administration's strong-dollar policy, arguing that it had "served our interests very well."

Currency traders appeared to take that assertion at face value, though Wednesday's action
suggested that the United States viewed the dollar's value as nearing its upper limits.

Hours after the currency intervention began, the administration sent Rubin's deputy, Lawrence
Summers, and William McDonough, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to Tokyo
for consulations with their Japanese counterparts. Underscoring the sense that the Asian crisis was
fast worsening, the Group of Seven industrial nations announced that they would hold a meeting of
deputy finance ministers Saturday in Tokyo.

The politics of Clinton's trip to China also weighed heavily on Wednesday's decision. Over the
weekend, China accused the United States and Japan of worsening the Asia crisis by letting the yen
fall, and in a series of messages to Treasury officials in the last few days, they began hinting that
pressure was growing to devalue China's currency, the yuan.

American officials have long feared that such a move would set off devaluations around the world, as
China's competitors throughout Asia -- and in Latin America and Eastern Europe -- followed suit so
that their own products would not be more expensive than China's on world markets. That, in turn,
could set off the kind of market selloffs, unemployment and social unrest that has built in Asia since
last summer.

"What this proves is that the depths of the Asian crisis are much, much worse than anticipated," C.
Fred Bergsten, president of the Institute for International Economics here, said Wednesday. "What
spurred this is that many in Asia are talking about their version of our Great Depression." Officials
of the World Bank have also begun to use the word "depression," and they told reporters
Wednesday that they now expect the Asian economic crisis to last for years.

"You can't expect much over the short term," said Jonathan Fiechter, director of the World Bank's
financial sector development department, who has been working on restructuring the crippled
financial systems of South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. "It's going to be a long, drawn-out
process. The risk is a loss of political support as this drags on. As people lose their jobs, the
consensus for painful change diminishes. "

Japan, however, has added to the problems immeasurably. Its economy accounts for 70 percent of all
economic activity in Asia. So its deep recession -- the economy shrank at an annual rate of 5.3
percent in the first quarter of this year -- has added to the region's pain in several ways.

Japan is not buying goods produced in Southeast Asia. The flight of investors from Japan, including
many Japanese who are now free to put their money into other currencies because of liberalized
financial rules, has added to the problem -- sending the yen spiraling downward by 15 percent in
recent months. That makes Japanese goods less expensive in the United States and other countries --
pushing out goods produced by other Asians.

As the yen dropped day after day, investors began to flee the currencies of other countries, from
Russia to Indonesia, setting off new fear in those markets.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:49 - ID#194311)
Goldman Sachs float....
does anyone have a date for this?
I think it is quite safe to assume the paper game will kept going long enough for these chaps to get out.
Yen/dollar intervention may have just been a sideshow to achieve such means.....2+2 always adds to four.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:51 - ID#25171)
M. KOSARES writes " keep in mind that if the europeans increase their money supply , they are going to have to increase the number of ounces in reserve to keep the ratio at 15%"
1 ) The Europeans don't decide like an act of god to increase or decrease money supply. The money supply will increase or decrease with the rhythm of the european economy and the implied activity in bank lendings. The European central bank will certainly have money supply growth targets and will act accordingly on the interest rate front by loosening or tightening the repo rate .
2 ) Wether the money supply increase or decrease is irrelevent as there is no connection between money supply and reserves ( which are the one which might have the 10-15% GOLD backing )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 14:53 - ID#254269)
Charles Keeling; thanks for your
post re yen. $1.5 to $2 B, on each side of the Pacific.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:00 - ID#410198)
Open Loop,Yeah I know I'am in Scottsdale,I tune in sometimes seems like a nice guy

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:00 - ID#25171)
@ kiwi
There was no formal vote yet on the IPO. They are drafting a proposal for the partners.
As much in love as I am with conspiracy theories , I don't think anybody or any group of people can prevent a stock collapse against a tide of selling investors.
Japan tried it with outright government pension fund buying and "orders " to financial institutions not to sell and they are entering their 10th year of bear market.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:04 - ID#194311)
just good "business" practices...

but we must stomp out crony-capitalism worldwide mustn't we?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:07 - ID#43185)
That might be very insightful. It would be intersting to see how the
rate of downgrading/upgrading of EPS compares to other economic events
as a leading/lagging indicator.

I'm going back over to the hospital now to see how my wife is doing so
I'll be back here sometime later tonight.

I'm waiting to see how my guess for the DOW close today of -49.85 I think
it was compares to your speculative +400 with regard to the guesses we
made last night.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:07 - ID#254269)
Dow down 29 points to 8800 with 50 minutes to

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:07 - ID#25171)
I sometime wonder if M. KOSARES is not doing the questions / answers in the ANOTHER tale.
ANOTHER has shown some good ideas but he seems to have the same misconceptions as far as EURO is concerned as M. KOSARES

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:08 - ID#26793)
Bank of France speaks for role of gold in Euro reserves

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:11 - ID#263379)
@ Sequin...Euro reserves
I agree with you completely, Kosares is out to launch. The inital "backing" of the Euro by some ( as yet undetermined ) percentage of Gold, will not become an inflexible ratio.

The EU is doing this simply to lend credibility to the introduction of the Euro, and attempt to establish it as a rival for the U.S. dollar. I seriously doubt that there will be a rigid proportional ratio, after it's debut.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:11 - ID#230216)
CB - That spread is mine to get rid of or to keep until expiry. I will 'review it' if its gets to 20ticks.........I don't have to get stopped out, I just hate losing it all ya know. And I remember last year when it waited for no man/woman........that's right.......uh huh...........ohmy!

kiwi - From that picture ( angle ) I just can't tell if RR looks Jewish or not.... ( how can ya look Jewish? ) ........Al sure does.........{;-^ ) .......... ( big jokes and smiles to all my Hebrew Brethren ) .........REALLY.......... ( tongue in cheek or foot in mouth I can't take it back now ) .........GO METALS!! the corner w/o supper

EBashuckin'&Jivin'Rastafarian....... ( puff-puff ) ....One love..... ( Jah ) .....One Supreme Creator...... ( maybe ) .

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:11 - ID#26793)
USA gold news
I have not been able to locate the story mentioned as the source.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:11 - ID#233199)
Re: ME Gold Holdings

"IMPORTANT............ Update 6/18/98 9am MDT: FWN reports that the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council is contemplating increasing their gold holdings dramatically to "keep parity with the European average of 10% to15%."

Who is FWN?
Is there a second source for this?

Isn't this IMPORTANT? Why aren't we talking about this? I must be some special kinda dumb......or are we all just "gun shy" about positive rumours....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:14 - ID#210235)
@Thanks and greetings
Donald, thanks. Your 10:00 should be in a Kitco FAQ's for newbies, as most of us are newbies in this matter.

Squirrel, I'm working on it.

Kiwi and James. Thanks.

TYoung, I, too, am walking in the paw prints of a short person - nice view down here. Seeing the squirrels taking over the neighborhood while those tall guys don't even notice. BTW, it would be helpful if you would head your future posts with your momentary religious preference/race/gender, to better help us position you for flaming.

Mike Sheller - you bring us back to center. Thank you for the balance.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:16 - ID#263379)
golden eagle sales rise again.......91,500 for May
On a happy note for my GoldBug friends, sales of U.S. golden eagles continue to become stronger and stronger, with the U.S. mint selling 91,500 ounces during the month of May.

Platinum Eagle sales were also quite strong at 8,850 ounces sold, despite the fact that the Half Oz. size is not yet available for 98, and the "Proofs" were also not available in May. ( They just became available, and if you're wise, you'll snap up a set or two! )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:17 - ID#194311)
EB's puffing uppa storm.
wonder how you can see straight at all!

if you ever out ( down ) these here green pastures, we smookum peace pipe?
where's cherokee in these trippy times?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:19 - ID#246224)
Recent article indicated that the USA has only 4.1% of foreign reserves in the world. Europe has 20% and Japan 12%. Of those 4.1% I do not know what we have as gold that is specificly declared as part of our forgeign reserves ( available to settle debts to other nations ) . Guestimating that Japan holds about 2/3 of its reserves in $US and they hold approx $US300 billion in US bonds ( the Japanese government does ) then I'd say our forgeign reserves are in the neighborhood of $US 150 billion or there about ( current US$ equivalent ) . But let's say that we have US$150 equivalent and of that 1/3 is Yen, 1/4 is ECU, 1/3 is Canada/Mexico/Brazil.

The gold in the Treasury as an asset of the US Government ( the people of the USA ) is not, to my knowledge, used as any kind of a monetary reserve. It is frozen in limbo. Congress would, have to act to free up that asset.There are about 275,000,000 troy ounces there ( somewhere ) . Its worth about US$85.2 billion @ US$300/oz. There is about US$5.7 trillion in US government obligations ( bonds ) which are held against the assets of the US government.

If the US was forced to balance its obligations in bonds against its gold assets then gold would be 'worth' US$20,727.00; or said in another way the $US would depreciate to 1.45% of its current value in relationship to gold ( an "inflation" in the gold price of 6900% ) .

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:21 - ID#260108)
Crystal Ball - re No Gold Backing...
Thankyou for your reply to my poorly worded query - I realize that
the US delinked gold from the dollar many years ago. What I wonder
is IF they decided to return to a gold-backed dollar, how much
gold beyond their current reserves would they have to buy?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:23 - ID#348397)
Can someone explain to me who buys the stuff???

Ok, so given the ECB reduces their gold reserves from 15% to 5% ( which is what we've all been hearing ) . When they hit the market to sell all of that gold, where does it go? Who soaks it up? Where did the Aussie gold go when they sold it all...?? and the Canuck gold...? and the Argentine gold..??? who's buying???

Enquring minds want to know.

PS- Good posting cooljing. You're right, its kinda like the stuff's radioactive or something.....oh well, see ya cooljing, I gots to go to LLLUNNNCH!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:24 - ID#230216)
Promey....I agree....gender, race, etc.
We gotta know who we are dealing with {;- ) purchase more napalm

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:25 - ID#373403)
Rubin article
"Other traders, though, noted that Rubin only decided to intervene after the yen started rising in European markets Wednesday morning, as traders
reacted to the news that Summers was headed to Tokyo. It was then that
Rubin, in consultation with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, decided to go with the momentum and started buying yen."

What is the signifigance of this? European preference for the Yen made the Treasury act?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:28 - ID#230216)
before I go.....
Did ya all catch that sell off in the  earlier?? Well........ a guys gotta take a profit, eh? yuk-yuk.....oooohmyyyy!
I kept some though.....let's look to 16800 region to complete ANOTHER leg of the weekly Pennant........OK. grind and polish and see clearly...

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:31 - ID#212323)
Avalon's post--US trade deficit
Actually, there is no true trade deficit if you can appreciate that these other counties are accepting USDollars as the balance after tallying the shortfall in value of USgoods exported vs foreign goods imported.
Given the world's acceptance of USpaper, why does America trouble itself to produce goods for exports at all? Just keep the presses rolling...

Truly, the only reason USpaper is any more useful than foreign paper is its ability to purchase oil. If/when that arrangement ceases, foreign countries likely will not export to America in excess of their imports in terms of REAL goods. The free ride driven by the wheels and rollers of the presses may soon come to an end, and then it will be time for Americans to get back to work.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:32 - ID#230216)
ticks=pts. Let's be accurate...agulptoya!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:35 - ID#263379)
CNN Analyst quits over bogus Sarin Gas report
Retired major General Perry Smith, CNN's military analyst, has resigned to protest the network's airing of the allegations that Sarin gas was used in Nam, and also used to gas "defectors".

Among other tidbits in the story are the facts that;

* Smith is also an Ethics teacher, as a part of his current function, to major businesses and colleges ( no wonder he was disgusted by the CNN story )

* Smith himself flew 130 combat sorties over Laos from 1968-1969 and neither he, nor any military personnel he ever worked with, had ever heard of any lethal type gas being used.

* Smith tracked down the 2 pilots who had supposedly flown the gas into the Laos that day. The pilots confirmed it was tear gas they delivered, not any lethal type gas.

* Smith personally spoke with General Schwarzkopf, and Powell, both of whom would have know if such an event was ever ordered, and both of whom confirmed that no such event ever was ordered ( they also quoted as saying the allegation itself was "ridiculous" )

* Smith has had correspondence and e mail inquiree's in cluding from a Lt. Colonel, confirming that the Sarin gas story was bogus, and urging Smith to investigate further and set the recor straight.

* One of the primary "interviewee's" for the story, Lt. Robert Van Buskirk, had forgotten and "repressed" his memories of the events until his interview by CNN ( UhHUh... )

* In the days before the story ran, several reporters at CNN and Time ( who also ran the story ) raised objections to the piece by CNN correspondent, Peter Arnett ( who else but the good ole U.S. hating Arnett eh? )

* Arnett had widely quoted Adm. Thomas Moorer, then head of the Joint Cheifs of staff who supposedly "confirmed nerve gas was used" , but Moorer has since stated that he did NOT confirm such an allegation, and had no independant knoeledge of any such event.

* Newsweek, having performed a separate investigation, has stated that they interviewed 33 personnel knowledgable about the village raid, and that not a single one could confirm that nerve gas had been used. It quoted the Army captain who led that raid as stating that the charges were "all lies".

Based on all the above, ( and a lot more ) Smith has resigned as CNN's military analyst stating "I can't work for an organization that would do something like this and not 'fess up' to it. ...I couldn't in good conscience still work for them."

Don't believe everything that comes ouuta Jane Fonda's hubby's "News" reports folks.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:35 - ID#399224)
Gold Prices
Jim Rogers stated in his book "Investment Biker" that a golden rule in
investments is to bet against CB's ( Central Banks ) when they want to
maintain an artificial low price of anything, be it gold, wheat, sugar,
whatever. He said: " ...just figure out the supply and demand and you
will end up incredibly rich."

Well, it is clear that CB's want to maintain a low gold price. See, e. g.
perceived or threatened sales of gold by CB's ( Switzerland is a good
example ) .

Gold demand significantly exceeds gold supply for a few years already
( see e. g. the comments of Peter Lynch ) .

I think the conclusion is clear.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:41 - ID#263379)
@ EB..(or any other currency traders)
Wasn't it clever the way Rubin intinated last Thursday that the U.S. would not propr up the Yen, and then took the Yen "shorts" by the short hairs by dropping that little bombshell?

Ya gotta hand it to him. The BOJ couldn't accomplish with FIVE billion, what Rubin accomplished with two. The traders were scrambling so fast to cover, that he got a lot of added "bang for the buck" by timing it ( and manipulating the traders ) the way he did.

Naughty, naughty Rubin! Clever, clever Rubin! Tsk tsk, you market manipulating demon from fiat currency hell!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:48 - ID#263379)
DOW Down, Gold Down, Dollar down, Platinum UP!
Once again, Gold defy's popular Kitco wisdom and tracks the DOW ( and even the dollar ) ......

Gold = ASB

Note to RJ, I bought Platinum ( some AE's ) on Monday, I'm making my call in 5 minutes to buy some more! Gooooo Platinum. It's strong today considering the weakness everywhere else. Anticipating Japanese buy's for auto industry, to be a little less "off" than previously anticipated perhaps.....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:54 - ID#287186)
Promey et al: I just talked to an old feller born in 1910
I made the comment that he would know what it's like come the next depression. He countered that President Clinton is the best president we have had - better than the last three before him all rolled into one. At least he is traveling around the world trying to keep the peace between countries. I said the Gennifer Flowers and Paula Jones news didn't bother him. I asked him what he thought of the Chinese missle and the satellite and the giving them guidance technology they could use on their ICBMs that are targeted on us. He hadn't heard anything about any of that. All of that technology stuff his over his head - he said.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 15:59 - ID#229277)
Gollum: It's not fair betting against you on the DOW
I can only guess but you can march right into the back room, flip a couple of switches, pull a few levers, turn a knob or two, and... presto! You kill my DOW 400 gain and lock in your -50. I'm showing -23 at 3:30pm so unless you messed up and left a lit cigarette in a wastebasket or something on your way out of the back room, it looks like you win, or close enough.

I'll start working on my EPS incidents chart. This will take some time and my wife's really not going to like it. Oh, well. Best to yours.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:01 - ID#350179)
Weekend trips
May just have to stop by the telegraph office one of these days.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:04 - ID#263379)
Gold...ECB's role
Don't know if this was posted yet...

12:15 p.m. Jun 18, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, June 18 ( Reuters ) - Gold recovered some of its earlier losses on Thursday after the Bank of France repeated its support for the metal's role in central bank reserves and said it planned no sales.

Spot prices jumped $2.50 from $291.90 an ounce in minutes after the Bank of France released its annual report saying that planned gold transfers to the new European Central Bank signalled the need for central banks to hold gold.

The Bank said the main holders of gold had not changed their view on the need for gold in reserves for use as a guarantee in the international financial system.

``Neither the U.S. Federal Reserve, nor the German Bundesbank, nor the Bank of Italy, nor of course the Bank of France plan to sell the precious metal,'' it said.

Earlier this month ECB head Wim Duisenberg said the Bank's council had reached a consensus that between 10 and 15 percent of the central bank reserves would be in gold.

Gold had earlier softened during late European trade, dogged by rand weakness and dealers' doubts about whether the yen's intervention-inspired recovery would survive.

It fixed at $292.45 an ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $293.05, as spot metal tracked the yen's gentle drift higher against the dollar.

``I think traders are a bit wary of the longevity of the intervention. I think we will have to see the colour of their money again before we believe it's all over,'' said one London bullion dealer.

``As such, precious metals are not going to go screaming higher, especially with technical resistance in gold sitting at $294.00/$294.50,'' he said.

The central banks of Japan and the United States stepped in on Wednesday to turn around the yen's rapid fall, selling dollars and buying yen to prop up the Japanese currency.

Yen weakness is seen as a barometer for gold demand throughout the region, with higher local prices likely to stifle demand and encourage investor sales.

While the bullion market's attention was on the yen and the Australian dollar early on in the week, Thursday's mover was the rand, which hit a new low of 5.4150 bid versus the dollar, down 14 cents from the day's high.

Rand weakness boosted the local gold price to be last traded at 1,574.56/1,578.72, below a near-two-month high above 1,585 rand from earlier in the day when the U.S. dollar price was also higher.

Weakness in both the rand and the Australian dollar has cushioned miners in both countries from the worst effects of the falling U.S. dollar gold price, although those in Australia have been less active than some expected, resisting the temptation to forward sell metal due to the size of hedge positions already in place.

``You are talking about companies which are already reasonably well hedged,'' said one analyst.

``You are not going to see really big sales until it goes a lot higher, somewhere above A$500,'' he said.

``Things are probably not as pressing as they were a year ago in terms of new development projects. They have really slowed down not just in Australia but in North America as well,'' he added.

Fewer new projects means fewer mine financing packages, which in turn reduces the associated spot gold sales and required hedging programmes.

Spot gold was last at $293.40/$293.90 versus its previous New York close at $293.20/$293.70.

Silver moved fairly much in line with gold during the day, drifting lower to be last traded at $5.28/$5.31 versus New York's previous close of $5.36/$5.39.

Platinum was last unchanged versus its U.S. close at $360.00/$362.00, while palladium was softer at $288.60/$298.60, down $3.40 on New York.

( ( Patrick Chalmers, London Newsroom +44 171 542 8057. ) )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:06 - ID#230216)
I bet there was a large purchase of Sept Yen options Monday afternoon before the close by some Cayman Island account.....just a thought.....People say that they would hate to be in his shoes but I would LOVE IT!! Yahoooooooo! apply for the job

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:06 - ID#290172)
Allen (USA)--Anyone else interested [grin]
The url listed below is rich with stats comparing Europa/USA/Japan

Special report on the EMU bloc
How it compares with USA & Japan

More money, bigger reserves
M1 money supply is larger in EUR 11 ( 1 404.7 bn ECU in Nov '97 ) than in the USA ( 968.0 bn ) or Japan ( 1 245.5 bn ) .

Both short- and long-term EUR 11 interest rates have been converging towards historically low levels, particularly in Italy, Spain and Portugal, where they had been relatively high.

Including or excluding gold, EUR 11 holds much more foreign exchange reserves than the USA or Japan.

Gold included, EUR 11 had 20.6% of the world total in November last year; Japan had 13.8% and the USA 4.1%.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:12 - ID#25171)
The PLAZA agreement drove the US $ down 40%
The BUBA stopped the $/dem slide in 1995 at 134.50
The B.O.J. stopped the $/ YEN slide at 78 and drove it up to 115 in 1995/1996 ( thanks to mr sakakibara )

Rubin did well indeed but a lot of the long US $ short YEN position has been taken on average levels way below the current $/YEN level. ( for exemple the SOROS's QUANTUM FUND bought the bulk of its position at 90 when he purchased 90 $ calls YEN PUT up and in at 100 and 105 for a nominal amount of 10 billion US $ )
So these guys could sustain a sharper drop in the $/YEN without cutting the position.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:20 - ID#263379)
@ Farfel
Note to Farfel...just curious, do you think an anti Gold "mole" would post an article such as the perceeding re ECB holding of their reserves? Inquiring minds want to know.....

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:22 - ID#287186)
re: my post on the old timer
It was not "I". it was supposed to read:
HE said the Gennifer Flowers and Paula Jones news didn't bother him." He had at least heard about that. Since the technology stuff was over his head I figured it best that I not mention year2000 to him. He has been here all his life - no doubt connected to a lot of potential customers. Best for me not to come off sounding like a nut.
BTW - this feller is no doubt a lifelong dyed-in-the-wool-mining-pants Democrat. They've run this county for decades - the union Democrats side by side with or counter to Climax ( AMAX Corp. ) management.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:22 - ID#290172)
Gee--This looks 'full circle' to me!
Ensuring Appropriate and Stable Exchange Rates
A Report of the Policy Subcommittee of the Committee on International Finance
September 11, 1995

2.Since the beginning of 1995, THE VALUE OF THE YEN SURGED GREATLY AGAINST THE US DOLLAR AND IN APRIL REACHED THE UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF LESS THAN 80 YEN TO ONE DOLLAR. IN RESPONSE, FOLLOWING THE BANK OF JAPAN'S GUIDING MONEY MARKET RATE BELOW EFFECTIVE RATES ON JULY 7TH, ON AUGUST 2ND THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS INCENTIVE PACKAGE, "MEASURES TO PROMOTE OVERSEAS INVESTMENTS AND LOANS AIMING FOR CORRECTION OF THE YEN APPRECIATION", and working with the US and Germany, launched a coordinated intervention effort in the exchange markets. Along with other forces, these efforts have gradually slowed the yen's appreciation, although it is still over-valued in relation to Japan's current economic capacity. The overly strong yen, coupled with drastic swings in exchange rates, have seriously handicapped business activities, thwarting spontaneous economic recovery and creating the potential for a "hollowing out" of Japan's industrial and technological infrastructure, which could lead to serious job-loss. Japan must take the necessary measures to ensure that the yen is staying at appropriate level and that exchange rates around the world be stabilized.

Supposedly the obverse of current conditions? Notice the similarities as
to "cures"? Makes one wonder...{:- )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.03. The 50 day moving average is 30.04 and the 144 day M/A is 28.58

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:35 - ID#263379)
Gold & Silver Numismatic news....from CDN
In recent weeks, we have noticed increasing activity for Modern Commemoratives and American Eagles. Among American Eagle Gold "bullion" coins, several dated  ounce coins are realizing strong Bids. Dealers are even Bidding more for certain  ounce American Eagle Gold than for some 1-ounce coins. We have seen Bids over the $350 level. In the something new category, you will note that we have added Platinum American Eagles to Greysheet. Also, we added some Modern Commems including some recent issues and sets. The Kennedy Collector Set, consisting of a 1997-S Robert F. Kennedy Silver Dollar and a John F. Kennedy Matte Finish Half Dollar is already attracting moderate activity. The action that we are seeing in Modern Commems is just a small part of the overall strong rare coin market. This bullish atmosphere provides an excellent backdrop for June 4-7 Long Beach Expo already in progress. Early reports indicate moderate to strong activity taking place on the bourse. Dealers are actively trying to fill customer want lists but are happy to buy scarce, interesting coins for their inventories. Strength is seen for scarce date Morgan Dollars, Mint State and Proof Gold and the 20th century popular series. Interest is also found among Uncirculated and Proof Type. Several dealers are Bidding strong money for select dates from a high quality Peace Dollar set. Dealers are in need of key and semi-key MS-65 and better Peace Dollars.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:37 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .235. The 50 day moving average is .266. My database contains 11 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #4. The #1 ranking was on April 24, 1986, with a gold price of $345.10, an XAU of 69.70, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .202. The ranking today is the best in 6 years.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:42 - ID#290172)
The way the media 'works'?
From Liberty's London post:
"Earlier this month ECB head Wim Duisenberg said the Bank's council had reached a consensus that between 10 and 15 percent of the central bank reserves would be in gold."

Am I mistaken? Did not the Forum Footsoldiers pin this down as a
remark later attributed to "mispoke myselfism"? So, it was run-out
first as a truth, later disclaimed, and appears back as a truth buried
in the body of a story?

Liberty this is absolutely no reflection whatsoever on you! Please
do not think that. For myself, it is very helpful to my present task that it was brought forward. Thanks {:- )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:46 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.80. The 50 day moving average is 52.88

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:47 - ID#36156)
SDRer__A (The way the media 'works'?)
As I recall it, a Kitco prankster posted a fake retraction a few hours after the initial quote was made public. He sheepishly acknowledged it a few minutes later. To my knowledge, there has been no "official" retraction/clarification. Could be wrong, though...


(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:49 - ID#26793)
The figures below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $300.15; spot silver $5.70; XAU 80.00

(Thu Jun 18 1998 16:58 - ID#244418)
Y2k repairs to stop in Spring of '99
This was posted to the y2k newsgroup by Cory Hamasaki,
mainframe computer programmer. A highly credible and unbiased
source of opinions about y2k:

"My guesstimate is that fiscal year 00 will be a minor problem.
[Hamasaki is referring to Feb 1 and April 1 of 1999 when many
computers rollover to fiscal year 2000]
The failures... and I'm speaking strictly IT ( info technology ) , heavy metal, enterprise scale,
these failures will follow the 000197AF model.
[Hamasaki is referring to his own experience in which a small date
problem crashed five mainframe computers he maintained at a major
corporation several years ago. He fixed that bug.]
During December 1998, that's this year not next, the systems that frame transactions into
calendar year 1999 will begin testing the wall at January 1, 2000.
They do this by asking the question, is this record before January 1,
2000. The systems will hold a transaction or record in one hand and
probe at the wall with the other, is this more or less, if less, then
mark it for processing, else mark it for deletion or put it in a bin to
be looked at later.
This logic error will cause queues to fill, records to be lost, and grit
tossed into machinery that has run for decades without error. In
January 1999, more systems will touch the wall, more odd things will
In some cases it will take 3-6 months of gradually decreasing revenues
and complaints of delayed billings, shipments, before anyone notices...
Well, except that like tm_year, I'm tipping you consultants off now.
Those of you with loyal clients, start examining these issues now. The
CY1999 ( calendar year ) problems are more specific than the CY2000 problems and we have
to get these locked down in the next 150 days. That's identified, fixed,
tested, and back in production in time for December 1998.
By spring 1999, all remediation will cease. The IT pro's, Oxley,
Secor, Shmuel, Infomagic, :Dave, ( and other's ... darn I need to start
building a list of heavy-hitters I can call on. ) the pro's will be
150% busy finding and fixing CY1999 Y2K problems. We'll be in crisis
recovery mode, it won't be a simulation, and all the clueless nubies and
5 week remediation wonders will just be in the way.
But the crisis of CY1999 will be nothing like the real thing, CY2000.
The CY2000 problems start in December of 1999 as the systems encounter
the first of the 2000 data items.
Yes, I know; the non-IT'ers aren't following this. Speaking just to the
non-IT'ers, your confusion has the same basis as your belief that "Banks
are OK because they wrote 30 year mortgages in 1970" and 30+70 = 100.
That one specific case has nothing to do with the thousands of other
cases. That one case might be a few dozen lines in a subsystem of a few
tens of thousands of lines of code... printing, projections, etc. Trust
me on this one, I was right about tm_year, I'm right about this one.
We have until December 199eight to fix a specific class of Y2K failure.
This might be a only a few tens of thousands of lines in a typical
corporate inventory.
The general problem is a million lines in an inventory of twenty million
lines. In CY2000, all million lines will be doing something wrong...
and it's only 5% of the inventory of a multinational bank or

With only 150 days to the preliminaries, I advise the heavy-hitters to
get lots of rest, line up pals to help you when production fails. Start
streamlining your life so that you don't have a lot of distractions.
[...remainder deleted ]

Cory Hamasaki

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:02 - ID#194311)
pressure back on the day at a time.
Yen intervention effects may not last--Baker

WASHINGTON, June 18 ( Reuters ) - Former U.S. treasury secretary James Baker said on Thursday U.S. intervention on the currency markets to bolster the
yen would not have lasting effects unless backed by economic reforms.

``The action was successful, probably however, only in the short term,'' Baker, who was treasury secretary from 1985-88, told Reuters Television.

``When you can effect surprise you can have some effect. The true question of course is whether the underlying economic problems are being dealt with,
particularly the problems that exist in Japan,'' he added.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:04 - ID#263379)
@ SDR'er...I'm just the messenger
That was a real story from Reuter's, I'm just the messenger. As I said earlier today though, methinks that there will be no locked in ratio in any case....the ECB talk about reserve percentages, is simply advertising prior to the Euro's debut.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:06 - ID#43460)
See Spot run.
Run Spot run.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:11 - ID#290172)
Liberty--and a good one!
Thanks! The dismay is with the accurate reportage problem. {:- )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:14 - ID#290172)
HenryD--So Duisenberg actually made the comment?
That is correct? Thanks HenryD-- Apologies to Reuters...

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:15 - ID#242325)
XAU acted very poorly today considering bullion's performance and BOF pro-gold statement. Gold and gold stocks may again take a licking. But the golden timebomb will keep on ticking.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:21 - ID#43460)
Two briefs about our social support network, Candian healthcare and US social security.
Disclaimer: I have unrelated to the publisher, have no monitary interest et cetera.


Canada's universal health-care system -- which features price

controls and health care rationing by waiting --- is generating a

wave of strikes. Physicians complain they are overworked and


o Doctors in British Columbia staged a Friday through Sunday

work stoppage this past week to protest a $90 million gap

between the government's cap on their income and the

actual value of the services they say they provide.

o Last week, doctors in 60 rural Alberta communities --

almost 80 percent of the province's 500 rural doctors --

closed their offices for one day to pressure the

government for more money, since they are only being

offered $6 an hour for being on call after normal working


o In Quebec, many health-care practices were closed last

Thursday and Friday, and the province's nurses have

announced they will refuse to work overtime this summer --

complaining that due to shortages, they are burned out.

o According to British Columbia's medical association, the

wait for coronary bypass surgery is now 30 weeks -- and

patients are dying because of the delay.

Canada's physicians are leaving for the U.S., where doctors make

an average of two to three times more than those in Canada. The

country lost 513 doctors in 1996 -- but that was only one-quarter

of all the health-care workers who leave for the U.S. every year.

Source: Editorial, "Doctors Who Go On Strike," Wall Street

Journal, June 17, 1998.

For more on Health issues


Economists Richard McKenzie and Dwight Lee have calculated that

Americans would have to live a very, very long time for Social

Security to pay off for them -- meaning the point at which

collected retirement benefits exceed taxes paid, plus interest.

Using 1997 income and assuming the worker has received or will

receive a 2 percent real raise every year during his career until

the retirement age at which full Social Security benefits can be

received, a single worker would fare as follows:

o Those born in 1935, who made $40,000 in 1997 would have to

continue breathing until age 105 to get back what they had

put into the system.

o A person born in 1948, making $30,000 in 1997, would break

even at 110.

o Someone born in 1948, making $68,400, would begin

collecting more than he put into the system on his 209th


o And someone born in 1960, making $68,400 in 1997, would

virtually have to live forever to collect more than his


Source: Richard B. McKenzie ( University of California, Irvine )

and Dwight R. Lee ( University of Georgia, Athens ) , "Security in

Old Age -- and We Mean Old Age," Wall Street Journal, June 17,


For more on Social Security's Rate of Return

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:21 - ID#253153)
A view from Japan--- (from Osaka Japan )
I'm visiting an old college friend ( president of a large Japane bank ) and during dinner last night he stated the following :
1. " A depression in Japan is a certainty."
2. "Japanese exports to the rest of Asia are declining. "
3. "Bankruptcies are rampant and increasing."
4. "Unemployment is Japan will be around 7% by year end."
5. " Japanese bad loans are very large and increasing ."
6. " No one has enough money to bail out Japan ."
7. " Lower your expectations. A depression in the US to begin in mid 1999."
8. " The Japanese government will be replaced in the next elections ."
My friend basically has confirmed what I have been posting since March, 98. The good news, once the Nikkie hits 5000 , BUY mutual funds specializing in large Japanese companies.
More info tomorrow.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:22 - ID#347235)
Thank you for posting about Major General Smith, ( No Relation to Me ) but I do know him.He backs up everything I said about Peter Arnette and the rest of Hanoi Janes Husbands Communist News Network.

I was there at the time too, as a combat photograher, and flew many times wit the unit involved and never saw anything remotely like Peter
A**nette's report. I had the misfortune to share a foxhole with him one night near Kontum, too bad I didn't know how he would turn out!!! Maybe I could have preveented it. Get ny drift?

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:23 - ID#212323)
SDRer...a slightly cleaned-up post of mine from a week ago. Perhaps this may help you
Who recognizes the value of gold? The answer may be found by simple inventory of the entities who own and hold gold. Central banks must love the stuff...they have one-quarter of the entire world supply ever to have been mined. Most citizens don't want it unless they recognize an opportunity to profit on it. It is all about competition over the world's scarcest of resources, so naturally the view of the citizens ( who greatly outnumber the central banks ) is carefully influenced in such a way so as not to interfer with central bank accumulations of the precious metal. This leaves the CB's to wrangle amongst themselves for the gold. The Russian gold being sold would never make it into YOUR hands, no matter how hard you tried. We must be content with the crumbs available through our bullion dealer. ( If these crumbs were NOT made available, public sentiment would turn 180 degrees and the game would be up for the central banks ) .
So, why is the POG what it is? Is it possible for you to conceive that in a gold war, there could be regional alliances just as in a conventional war? Some CBs conspire to wrest the gold from the weak hands of another CB...not to hard to imagine. Perhaps a small group could participate in a scheme like the IMF, giving paper relief in exchange for hard assets from financially beleagered countries. Perhaps gold might even be rounded up from the common citizens--donating for the good of the country. Sound familiar ( SEAsia ) ?
OK, so alliances ARE possible. Next up, the EURO. Victim, the USA.
First of all, the Euro, as currently laid out, is a fiat currency. The Euro-11 countries have a present M1 equivalent to 1.4 Trillion Euro dollars. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has complete discretion on the size ( up to 50 billion Euros ) and make-up of the reserves. 50 Billion reserves versus 1,400 Billion in issued circulating value does indeed a fiat currency make. Can you not see that the "backing" reserve value constitutes only 3.5% of the outstanding circulating currency? The Governing Council might even choose ( or perhaps already have ) to establish reserves LESS THAN 50 Billion. Enough on that point.
Article 30, Statute of ECB of the Maastricht Treaty leaves it to the Governing Council to establish gold at zero% to 100% of these reserves. Even at 100% gold, assuming the maximum 50 Billion reserve value, gold would need to increase in value by a factor of nearly 30 for a one to one relation of currency to reserves. Using gold as 10% of the reserves valued at 50 Billion ( 5 Billion Euro value in gold ) , if all other paper went down in flames, this little amount of gold would become the only de facto backing for the Euros in circulation. A one to one correlation of circulating Euros to gold reserves would require an increase in gold's apparent valuation ( price ) by a factor of nearly 300. Under any scenario, if/ ( when ) the world returned to a true gold standard, with one-to-one convertability of currency for bullion, it is obvious that you fare much better if you are holding gold at the time because the exchange rate becomes enormous. But for the present time, this small amount of gold and the remainder of the pittance of reserves are in place simply to defend the value of the circulating Euros on the world's open market. This is not unlike any other fiat currency.

So, why is the current price of gold low, why did the Euro Governing Council indicate a low gold target for total reserves, and what can we expect in the future?

Gold is low now for several reasons. If you can accept the notion of CB alliances, this scenario is obvious. Many events in the world are coming to a head. How many are chance, and how many fit the master plan? Remember, supplanting the USDollar as world reserve currency is the ultimate end here. CBs make convenient announcements at the proper times to drive down the price of gold. If a weak, non-alliance CB cannot be pursuaded to sell their gold holdings, a strong alliance CB announces a sale of some gold ( which goes directly to another alliance member CB ) . Or perhaps the hint of a sale is enough to do the job. POG falls over time as orchestrated. On the one front: Weak countries ( SEAsia ) are pushed over the brink of the financial abyss, and via the IMF, hard assets ( including gold ) are received in exchange for "strong paper". A low POG ensures that the maximum amount of gold is attained in the process. This may be a coincidence. On the other front: The various CBs within the European Monetary Union are not overly anxious to yield up their national treasure for centralized control. Certainly SOME gold is required to gain an edge over the USDollar, but individually they do not want to part with any more than is necessary. Fortunately, any token amount will suffice, say, 5 Billion Euro value ( approx 600 tonnes ) of the total 50 Billion reserves. Already some of the world's paper currency is on fire, and the flames are spreading.

The gold sales I mentioned earlier, most notably from Belgium, could very well be understood to be their advanced gold contribution to the ECB ( European Central Bank ) . Perhaps it was purchased by Germany, for example, and earmarked for the ECB. When the time comes for each country to contribute their share of the agreed-upon reserves, Belgium will only be providing paper, whereas Germany ( in this example ) will be handing over largely gold, yet just the tiniest fraction of their own national treasure. France, for example, contributing their fair share ( based upon the EMI formula for contribution of capital at 21.8% ) of the
gold, would only be parting with approx. 125 tonnes, which is only 5% of their national treasure ( gold ) .
With the launch of the Euro ( having even this tiniest fraction of gold as OFFICIAL reserves ) there now exists a rival to the USDollar. Would an unstable USDollar boost the Euro? YES. Will the very existence of the Euro tend to destablize the USDollar? YES. Is this a bit of a vicious circle of weaker USDollar and strengthening Euro? Yes. But, where is gold in the mix? Other currencies are burning around the globe, and the USDollar shows its first signs of vulnerability. As the USDollar is sold, the POG rises ( as it IS after all priced in terms of Dollars ) . The mix of paper instruments and currencies that make up 90% of the ECB reserves lose value as they turn to ash, and the reserve of last resort is all that remains, 600 tonnes of gold valued at what-you-like. Meanwhile, Germany, France, and Italy remain the content individual owners of over 90% of their original quantity of national treasure gold.

So their they sit, controlling interest in the world's new reserve fiat currency, that at their option they could make 100% convertible ( to gold ) through a natural or dictated revaluation in gold. And their they also sit, swinging their legs, whistling upon their mountains of national gold. Who has the money, who has the gold, HAS the power. No conspiracy here, just cooperation among a small handful of people with a common interest. A simple, national interest.

got gold?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:25 - ID#347235)
Last post
Once agin I should have proof read PREVENTED111 OH WELL
Ol'timers disease & CRS

(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:30 - ID#290172)
China headlines--
1.First-strike deal urged on nuclear weapons
2.Eavesdrop satellite deal now in doubt
3.War games delayed `to stop speculation'
Taiwan's military will halt all scheduled major military exercises during President Clinton's visit to the mainland to avoid ``unnecessary misunderstanding and speculation,'' a newspaper report said.
4.Taipei says it's ready for the worst
Taiwan Foreign Minister Jason Hu said on Thursday that despite reassurances from Washington the Kuomintang government was prepared for the worst from the summit.

AragornIII@That's.a.nice.treasure-trove! I shall grab, run and READ!
Many thanks! Your help very much appreciated. {:- )

Cage Rattler
(Thu Jun 18 1998 17:50 - ID#33182)
Prospects for A Chinese Devaluation
One of the nightmare scenarios in Asia is the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, which would spark a fresh round of currency devaluations across Asia and possibly the entire developing world, including Latin America and Eastern Europe. The collapse of the Asian currencies late last year wiped out over one trillion dollars worth of wealth from the world and any further impoverishment of the world economy could set the stage for a global recession. Since the acceleration of her economic reforms in the 1990, China began to play a very crucial role in the global economy and its fast economic ascent began to squeeze many other developing nations. It attracts over 40% of all investments in the developing world, and its lower labor costs put it in a better position to compete in low-tech manufacturing. Domestic problems notwithstanding, Chinese exports were a key factor in the decline of the Asian tigers. Now that the Asian Tigers have seen their currencies fall, their costs are 5-10% cheaper then Chinas. This puts China in danger of losing her positive momentum. Prospects for a Chinese devaluation have been coming in and out of focus for the market since the fall of 1997, and will continue to haunt the market in the foreseeable future. There are many political and economic reasons for and against a devaluation of the yuan. The debate will be influenced by developments in the next two quarters.

No Devaluation

As Asian nations topple like dominos in their surrender to the temptation of devaluation, China has bucked the trend, vowing to hold steady at all costs. This has won China much praise from all corners of the world, giving it the credibility and respectability it covets so much. Along with a rise in its economic stature, China has been trying to boost its political standing in the world. This is getting increasingly difficult as China tries to dodge charges of, among other things, nuclear proliferation and human rights abuses. Besides seeking to maintain Most Favored Nation ( MFN ) status with the US, China is also seeking membership in the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) . China has been kept out of the WTO for a variety of political and economic offenses that will be tough to ignore, so holding steady on devaluation will give her much needed negotiating leverage. China is betting that as she shows "consideration" to the world, she will be rewarded with greater accommodation on the part of the US and others. China is also seeking to increase her political clout in Asia. She is certainly playing a very responsible role in the eyes of Asian leaders, who cannot even look to the Japanese for leadership. Taiwan, Chinas political rival, has survived the crisis relatively unscathed and is now offering aid to many of the hard hit nations of the region. In a power-struggle, China has been working to isolate Taiwan for many years. An irresponsible move on Chinas part could undo much of that work and tarnish her "good guy status". Devaluing the yuan would also cost Hong Kong its peg to the US Dollar. Losing the peg could destroy Hong Kongs credibility as a financial center and its vast wealth would quickly move overseas. China views Hong Kong as essential to its continuing growth and modernization. It would also be a very big loss of face for the Chinese to cause the collapse of the peg so soon after it took over the colony from the UK.

As far as domestic pressures are concerned, the Chinese Prime Minister has stated that since trade comprises of only 20% of the economy, he will not hurt the whole economy just to save the exporters. Exporters have also shifted their marketing to North America and the European Union in order to offset lost business in Asia. First quarter exports to the US and Europe grew by 29.7% and 20.6% respectively, and Western companies have also increased their direct investment in China to make up for the lack of Asian investment. China is also gearing up to provide much-needed fiscal stimulus to get its domestic economy going. Beijing has announced billions of dollars in public works spending, and is trying to stimulate a private housing boom by encouraging home ownership. It plans to induce a three-year spending binge of $350 billion on private housing financed by banks. China has been keeping interest rates high to fight inflation, but as the domestic economy stagnates with deflationary risks emerging, it is likely to cut them to spur the domestic economy. Mays consumer price index was 1.0% and wholesale prices fell by 2.7%. This continues a deflationary trend that has been going on for eight months, and is likely to convince any skeptics of the need for much lower interest rates. China also has over $140 billion in forex reserves which it can use to bolster its currency. As for exporters, the government has promised to increase their tax rebates, and has eased many regulations to make investing in China more attractive.

The Case for a Devaluation

The Chinese economy is divided into three parts, with the majority of the population still employed in agriculture. The urban population is divided between the private sector and people working for government and state owned industries. The private sector, driven by exports and foreign investment, has been the key to the remarkable growth of the Chinese economy and the source of all new jobs. On the other hand, the outmoded government sector is dogged by inefficiency and corruption, and has been the source of Beijings problems. Furthermore, it poses a significant risk for the economys future. State owned industries employ over 100 million workers, but over 60% of companies are technically insolvent and are only being kept alive by the state owned banks. State owned industries also contribute to the fact that china has 40% excess capacity. The fact that the Asian crisis threatens to destroy the banking system has prompted Beijing to announce massive three-year streamlining of state-owned industries, which means that 33 million workers will lose their jobs. The Government also plans to cut its bureacracy in half over the next three years, in effect adding 14 million more to the unemployment line. Millions of surplus agricultural workers are also coming to the cities looking for work. Not including unemployed workers, 17 million people enter the labor force every year. With unofficial unemployment at a 50 year high ( 30% of the labor force is unemployed or underemployed ) , Beijing is counting on very fast growth in the private sector to fill in the gap. Not including the restructuring in the state sector, the economy would need to grow by 8% to create enough employment for new entrants to the urban labor force. First quarter growth is already worrying at 7.2% ( under target ) and the 1998 number is unlikely to exceed 5% unless the private sector can keep the its miraculous growth intact.

Chinas private sector relies on exports and direct investment by foreigners for growth, and is very dependent on Asia. 60% of exports go to the region and 80% of foreign direct investment comes from Asian nations. As Asia heads into recession and its consumers become impoverished by their respectively crashing currencies, their demand for imported products is falling at an alarming rate. Chinese exports, which grew by 20% last year, have been slowing dramatically. In May exports declined by 1.5 % yr/yr, its first yr/yr drop in two years, and for the first five months of 1998 exports grew by only 8.9% ( compared with 20% growth in 1997 ) . The currency crisis has made Chinese goods too expensive for Asians, thus hurting industry. First quarter exports to Japan ( Chinas second largest trading partner ) fell by 3.1% and to South Korea ( Chinas fourth largest trading partner ) by 24.5%. Moreover, the crisis is deepening as regional economies dive deeper into recession. Singapore and Hong Kong, originally thought to be immune to the crisis, will slip into recession this year. Australia and Taiwan will be the only Asian countries likely to escape negative growth, but will slow dramatically and that is sure to curtail consumer consumption of imports and corporate investment. The outlook for the region is getting worse every day, and as the regional situation worsens, so will all the above factors. The other main component of private sector growth is foreign direct investment ( FDI ) which fell by 19.4% in April. Given the reliance on Asia, FDI is likely to continue its decline as Asian companies concentrate on survival, which for many is very much in question. As private sector growth slows, unemployment will worsen, and unrest---already growing---will become more pronounced. Riots in Indonesia, resulted from the economic crisis and brought down the government there. The Chinese leadership does not want to deal with another Tienamen Square.


The Chinese have ample reasons not to devalue, and will try to hold off for as long as they can. It is very important to note that the Yuan is not a free trading currency, and speculators cannot force its devaluation. Only the government can. The question is how much pain is China willing to suffer for its current stance. The most important factor to watch for now is how far the situation in Asia will deteriorate, especially the Japanese economy. Devaluation is increasingly becoming a reality, and the real question is not if, but when, and by how much. It will be crucial to watch how fast Chinas trade position, the FDI, will deteriorate. Also, the Q2 GDP will be a key measure of how close China is to its 8% growth target. If Q2 falls below 6% and exports continue to decline, then a devaluation will most likely occur in the fall. China has been very vocal in criticizing Japan as of late, blaming the fall of the yen for much of her woes, and it seems like her leaders are preparing the world for a devaluation by first trying to deflect guilt onto Japan. Like Mexico in 1995, China is likely to lie about her intentions until the last minute, and then act very suddenly. The only saving grace may be that it will try have a controlled devaluation of no more then 20% initially to try and see if that improves exports, thus minimizing the pressure of devaluation on its neighbors.

Source: Opulent-Forex

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:09 - ID#26793)
@Old Gold
Regarding your comment "the XAU acted poorly today" reminds me of the old saw: "buy low and sell high." I hope it acts even more poorly tomorrow.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:16 - ID#26793)
EU meeting on gold and the VAT

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:20 - ID#26793)
Waste photo-chemicals more valuable than just for silver recovery.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:26 - ID#410215)
..... Is it me? .....

I actually wrote something positive about gold today


(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:34 - ID#233199)
@ Midas 15:23 A question no one here can or will answer...

Date: Thu Jun 18 1998 15:23
midas__A ( Can someone explain to me who buys the stuff??? ) ID#348397:

Ok, so given the ECB reduces their gold reserves from 15% to 5% ( which is what we've all been hearing ) . When they hit the market to sell all of that gold, where does it go? Who soaks it up? Where did the Aussie gold go when they sold it all...?? and the Canuck gold...? and the Argentine gold..??? who's buying???

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:35 - ID#233199)
Make that a challenge: Where does all the gold go?


(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:36 - ID#254269)
Interesting question isn't it ? It's amazing that no-one can find this out .

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:39 - ID#402148)
..and what did u write about gold that was good?


(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:40 - ID#255226)
Silver, Gold
Silver has not grathered the head of steam I was looking for and the XAU looks terrible and is heading for the gap near 60. Despite what I read here last night the XAU ALWAYS perdicts the next significant move in the metals. The new objective for July silver is 5.55 - 5.65 before another leg down into the seasonal lows near 7/1 which could bring silver under 5.00 again.

Aug Gold - 50% short at 295, short another 50% at 300 if it can get that high.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:40 - ID#254269)
SWP1; Someone posted earlier today about how the drug cartel is a major
"influence" ( guess that is the right word ) on the world economy. Maybe they're the guys who are buying it. If you have a few extra billion and want to "keep it away from the tax man", where would you put it ?

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:45 - ID#295111)
Where does the gold go? @SWPI
One answer to this question is the Japanese...try reading

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:48 - ID#410215)
..... Good Stuff .....

Now that the yen is heating up ( but will it last? ) It is time to price platinum in yen. Some of the old timers hereabouts will remember my platinum yen charts of last year that looked like a rorschach test. When the yen goes up, PGMs go up.

I think the chart is still at ( ) though it is woefully out of date. The important thing to see is the clearcut relationship. I will try to pass on platinum yen pricing as often as possible or try to include it in my Weekly Review. I think you have to take out the "en" in

golden for the link to work.

Platinum $358.00 ( $2.70 )

Palladium $287.00 ( $3.80 )

Gold $294.60 ( $0.30 )

Pt:Gold Spread $63.40

Yen 138

Platinum: Yen/g* 1662

* The Japanese are the world's largest consumers of platinum, the yen / gram price ratio is the retail price less the 5% tax charge, as quoted by Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:50 - ID#410215)
..... HopeFull .....

It will be published tomorrow afternoon at:


Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:50 - ID#295111)
I've been told from a close confidant ( an illuminati renegade friend of mine ) that Portugal still has some gold it needs to sell off. That should be the last European country to do so. Once EMU countries are satisfied with the gold they wish to hold, ECB will halt future sales as a matter of concensus...a formality so to speak.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:50 - ID#194311)
Fully blown world currency crisis.....
that is what we have and there can be no disputing this no matter what light you shed on it.
This must end in only one way: a re-evaluation of all world currencies versus there true worth in gold....always has done, why is now different?

It isn't, buy gold, it is a steal in US dollar toilet paper squares.

Cheerio, g&t time.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:51 - ID#228128)
Currency intervention
If Martin Armstrong is correct in that China was to devalue July 1 unless the Yen stopped sliding, then I expect we would have had a spike low and perhaps bottom in gold in July. Now what! Is this intervention a one time thing setting the time table off a bit. Or will they intervene again and again in order to keep currency traders guessing and off balance. If they manage to postpone the inevitable rise in the dollar, does the world lurch towards global deflation because Japan waits until too late to get its house in order. In this case we may be looking at 1999 for a low in gold with lots of volatility in between.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:55 - ID#376309)
This is the best paper on the Y2K problem that I have read.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 18:55 - ID#286230)
2 Billion US$
What would the US get for 2 billion--a new battleship, a Stealth Bomber, a new Golden Gate bridge??? What's it worth in things we can see?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:00 - ID#254269)
Selby; Right now, it looks as though the US bought Japan for
$2 B.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:01 - ID#194311)
try $5 billion off the trade deficit for june?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:02 - ID#410215)
..... What does $2 Billion buy? .....

Selby -

Maybe a couple minutes interest on the National Debt?


Bill Buckler
(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:02 - ID#256381)
The Plaza Agreement
Sequin ( 16:12 ) The Dollar "topped out" ( at 260 Yen BTW ) in Feb/March 1995, at the same time that the US officially became a net external debtor nation for the first time since before WW I.

The Plaza Agreement was negotiated in a hotel in Washington DC in September 1985, six months later. This Agreement did NOT act as the catalyst for the Dollar's fall, it had already been falling for six months.

What the Plaza Agreement did was give an official ( G-7 ) "Seal of Approval" to a $US fall that had already been going for six months and which was privately conceeded to be both inevitable and unstoppable.

That fall went as low as 120 Yen in the aftermath of the October 1987 stock market crash. From 260 to 120 Yen in a little under three years. Kinda puts the present ( 136-146 ) Yen range in perspective, doesn't it?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:06 - ID#194311)
this means US has entered into the competitive devaluations?

I think so...all commodities are now rising in US$ this is the pennultimate play...only commodities left to rise and wholesale paper devaluations.

Go gold, go bob R...sell dollars into the toilet!

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:19 - ID#250297)
Lotsa coins...
ROBNOEL: Thanks for the response to my question. Are you a coin dealer? If so, how can you be contacted?

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:21 - ID#250297)
GLENN: Would you mind reposting the URL for that Y2K article? For some reason I can't seem to access it. Thanks.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:23 - ID#250297)
General Question
ALL: This is not the most unbiased place to ask this, but is there anyone here who feels that gold WILL NOT go up in value by at least 50% at some point within the next 5 to 10 years?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:27 - ID#45173)
Cage Rattler: Thanks for the superb post on China
Great reading.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:34 - ID#433143)
Strad Masta
I feel 50.00 - 150.00 average price increase is not unreasonable for the next five years UNLESS you consider Y2k - event or non-event?, the real impact of the Euro ( not what they tell you is going to happen to it.. for thats is in their best interests ) , and if some meteor just happens to come crashin outta the sky ( movie Impact : ) , then my predictions are reasonable. heh the future is pretty predictable eh?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:34 - ID#263379)
@ Retired Soldier
Yes I understand completely. Arnett could have definitely benifited from a good f** uhhh I mean FRAGGing. That is, the REST of us could have benefited. ( LGB signing off to investigate why the U.S. only targeted Baby milk factories and civilian hospitals in the Guld war......according to Arnett anyway.... )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:36 - ID#410215)
..... Strad .....


Tricky question, answering a negative

So, to clarify:

I believe gold will rise at least 50% in the next five to ten years.

You sound well, I'm glad.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:37 - ID#411112)
Srad Master,yes I'am, among other things ,however let me warn you about my web page,I'am a charter
member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy you have been warned

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:38 - ID#288369)
@StradMaster..............Promise Breakers.
My dear friend who graciously received me in his wonderful home and gave me a hug full of love. We, you and I, simply must work for our profit, this speculation is designed to profit those that host the bet. What have we to show for our speculations and trust? Only pain and regret....we're lost in a sea of turmoil. What will a man tell you to gain your money?

Dave in CO
(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:38 - ID#229103)
The example given is most likely a multi-gigabyte relational database similar to one I developed 10 years ago and have maintained and enhanced since. These are NOT the systems which will cause the bulk of problems. Relational databases ( e.g., MS Access ) are designed to allow expansion of fields ( e.g., date fields ) without unloading ( i.e., copying all the data to another location ) then reloading back with a larger field size. But we're only talking data here. The software using that data must still be compliant.

Unfortunately, I'm not aware of relational databases except maybe proprietory ones 20-30 years ago. The old applications still running as they did back then are the biggest problems. Data structures such as flat files and ISAM files will have to be unloaded/reloaded or the software modified to window the dates; i.e., years between 00 and 50 would be handled as 2000 years.

I think that GM's budget of $500,000,000 to fix their software is proof enough that other companies' problems are not as easy as this guy's example.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:38 - ID#410215)
..... Liberty .....

What are you complaining about?

I saw you personally ship that technology eastward.

Barely fit in the trunk, as I recall.

Got Milk?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:38 - ID#263379)
@ Strad...Gold potential in 5 to 10 years
Will it probably go up at oleast 50% "sometime" in teh next 5 to 10 years? I can't imagine anyone would be foolish enough to bet against such a wide window of opportunity given Gold's historic volatility.

The question I might ask ( after further DOW corrections ahead in the next year ) , is which investment will yield us the healthiest percentage gains in the next 5 - 10? Gold, Silver, Platinum, Treasuries, Equities, Mining shares? Now there's a tricky problem... ( though I'm sure my diehard extremist GoldBug friends might disagree )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:42 - ID#190411)
idiot in distress..send help
I tried to post a link to Max Mosely's latest, which is a good read.
Can someone post the link for "The Skeptical Investor"?

Internet stuff is not my forte. Nor is French.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 19:47 - ID#45173)
Strad Master: I'm glad you asked that because I've been in a funk
on this very question for the past few days.

It's clear that Japan will implode and drag Asia into a depression in the next six to 12 months and that Asia will bring the US into a recession within six months after that.

The question of what happens after that is more a political than an economic question. How will the Clinton/Rubin/Greenspan administration react? I think we got a clue from the recent Yen intervention. It seems US policy will favor inflation risk over the risk of deflation.

So, at the moment, my feeling is that gold will increase very much in the next five to ten years. But that can change, if compelling new evidence contradicts this assessment.


Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:01 - ID#250297)
Gold to the moon!!!
To all who have responded to my question - thanks. I await word from a contratian who thinks otherwise. Just curious to know if there is one out there. Glad that my question has stimulated such rapid and spirited response. Keep 'em coming.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:06 - ID#250297)
Couldn't get there.
ROBNOEL: I tried to access your URL. Sometimes ( as with the last post by Glenn I couldn't access ) it seems that if the URL is too close to the beginning of the posting, when I go to open the long version I get a message that the URL can't be found. Probably just an anomaly in my machine. Perhaps if you post the URL in the subject box, it might work. Otherwise, you can e-mail me at Thanks. BTW, I'm a card-carying member of the vast right-wing conspiracy, as well. ( A real rarity among musicians. )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:11 - ID#376309)
when I tried the URL from Kitco I was able to get there.
I posted it in the subject box if that helps.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:14 - ID#250297)
RJ: Yes, I'm well. How could I not be? I have my health and the health of my family. My family are all gems. My wife is a delight. My three children are good, smart, talented, and beautiful. My dear father is still alive and visits every day. ( He'll be 85 next week and daily swims 40 laps in our pool! ) I am surrounded by more dear friends than I can easily number. I live in great comfort in what can only be described as Paradise. I am close to God and am surrounded by His love. Every day I make beautiful music that brings joy to everyone who hears it. Against all this, the loss of ALL my investment capital pales somewhat. Yes?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:16 - ID#329186)
SWPI@MIDAS your 15:23 wher does the gold go id233199
An earlier post this morning refered to the following try the US Government

go gold cpo

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:19 - ID#250297)
To Brother Studio
STUDIO R: Much wisdom in your post ( although I'm not quite sure to what point of mine you were addressing it ) . Still, you're right.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:22 - ID#210114)
New Hope?; Gold Production to fall.
New York--Jun 18--The increase in world gold production is expected to slow
to 1.0% per year in the next 4 years, reported Washington-based trade group
the Gold Institute. Just a year ago, miners were forecasting that worldwide
production would increase 3.6% per year, but sustained low gold prices in
the past year have caused miners to recalculate their projections of future
output, it said. Bridge News, Story .14275

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:22 - ID#250297)
Got it!
GLENN: Thanks for posting the URL in the subject box. That did the trick. I printed out the article for later perusal. Thanks again.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:26 - ID#376309)
Gold Mines
So what your saying spock is that gold production is still increasing. I would think that the bottom would be marked by mines closing and production on a world wide basis expected to decline.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:26 - ID#45173)
Sure hope the good folks at
Golden Eagle Lodge & Nordic Ski Center Gunflint Trail
468 Clearwater Road
Grand Marais, MN

aren't counting their web hits as statistically meaningful market data.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:28 - ID#426220)

Strad Master ( General Question )
"... who feels that gold WILL NOT go up in value by at least 50% at some point within the next 5 to 10 years?

With no reservations whatsoever, I empahatically state there is no more sure bet than this. In fact it's my very considered opinion that GOLD will rise much more than 50% in a period shorter than FIVE YEARS... possibly a lot shorter!

One of the greatest financial minds that ever commanded the canyons of Wall Street was Bernard Baruch - who asserted:

"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."

- Bernard Baruch, a 1929 and aftermath winner

In his later years he was financial consultant to THREE US PRESIDENTS.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:30 - ID#288369)
@StradMaster....rare, to be of pure heart and intention........
Your perspective of 20:14 is a beacon of truth. We shall dwell on these matters. Acquire enough gold for safe passage to this place I have under my control. No more will be needed. There, we shall know the joy of work....prepare, for you may pressed to play your violin before we sit for a fine dinner.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:32 - ID#250297)
ESTIMADO VRONSKY: Muchas gracias, amigo!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:33 - ID#255190)
PEI Armstrong
Generally I have some regard for Armstrong's insistance on looking at world wide capital flows as the basic context of markets. But the more I read, recently, of his work the more I wince at the lack of careful thinking he is displaying these days.

First he assumes that because he has some experience with computers ( dating many years ago ) and has heard a few stories about rip offs, that 1 ) the whole world of computers is as simple as he thinks it is and 2 ) fixing code is a cinch. Of course he drags out the VERY tired accusation that those who contemplate doom are MAKING MONEY, for crying out loud!!!

Let's look a bit at the accusation. It applies to him to a "T". He offers his view of the world and people pay him for his opinion and professional management experience. THIS IS NOT UNIQUE, FOLKS. The problem is that he paints every person and company who treats the problem seriously with a wide, red brush of profiteering.

This shallow, very self congratulating person has the gall to publish such rubbish and no fear that he will be laughed to scorn. He must know that his constituency is filled with brainless, thoughtless puppy dogs who pant after his every word.

What puke!

Martin Armstrong should present significant evidence of companies who have conquered this problem and who are garrantying their viability in writing ( taking responsability ) . He doesn't do this because there aren't any.

Martin Arsmstrong should find credible testimony from experts who are ( not managing but ACTUALLY WORKING IN THE CODE ) finding this to be the easiest thing since microwave dinners. He should find at least 100 programmers who will stand before the world and tell us all just how easy it was for them to fix their system ( which were fixed in just a few days BTW ) . But he can't because there are to few such people in actual non-trivial environments who have actually done it.

The person he cites who made a program in three days, what is his name? What as the language and system he did this on. Has he had this program tested by an independent software metrics firm to determine what it does and does not do well, error rates, etc.

****** I am making no money from Y2K ********

I work as an computer anylyst.
I know the hardware and software environment.
I know network interconnectivity.
I see the IT management ( ?! ) BS and myopia daily.

Cory Hamasaki's statements are indeed reality.

I snarl, spit and growl at the back slapping, happy face article with which Martin has whitewashed this very genuine and disasterous problem!!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:33 - ID#248180)
@ Strad's C/Ball Gazin
Strad - I think 5-10 years is to far. Let us close the gap. Say 1-5 years, Yes. Agreed start point today June 1998 say $300. My calls, I'm Down for:
by Dec 1998 - 350 - 375
Dec 1999 - 450 - 495
June-2000 - 700 - 800
Dec -2000 - 950 - 1050
I have bet the family farm on Gold & PGM mines. Maybe I'm just stupid or live in an optimists fairy land. But that's my call.
Have a nice day people. I'm off for 10 hours or so.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:37 - ID#210114)
I just posted the article; I made no judgement. However, if you want one....

I take your point, however, a 1% growth in production is better that a 4% growth in production.. Assuming that demand stays constant, and the CB's stop selling, that is bullish for gold.

However, there seem to be lots of wild cards at the moment, so I'm not going to make a confident prediction.

Live Long and Propser.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:42 - ID#288369)
Thank you, Bart. studio.r

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:45 - ID#347447)
Perhaps I am overdosed on Szeged paprikas, but I want to send you to bed dreamy and cozy...within the next ten years gold will hit at least $2,400 per ounce, and silver will at the very least challenge its former high of $50, if not exceed it. This is conservative if you compare it to the 8 year gold bull from $42 to 850 in the 1970's, and reasonable for a commodity like gold if compared to the doughty Dow in the past ten years as well. Patience, lads and lassies, patience. 2003- 2005 is the big party! And oil will participate as well.
We await the great asset inversion that follows every major bull market in stocks.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:46 - ID#26793)
First ever BIS meeting being held outside Europe. Greenspan going to Tokyo

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:51 - ID#26793)
More on the BIS meeting in Tokyo and Asian concerns.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:52 - ID#250297)
Mike Sheller
This is the first time I remember hearing any indication that you tried out the Chicken Papriks recipe I sent. How did it turn out? Worth it's weight in gold, eh? Thanks for the gold price comments.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:52 - ID#45173)
Mike Sheller: Patience is a virtue... I got Royal Dutch
While we're on the topic of recommending stuff, are there oil stocks you feel good about?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:53 - ID#347447)
There is little I can offer the erudite minds at Kitco except one basic word of advice...or observation, I should say...the gold bull will emerge only when interest rates begin to rise. Period. The Bond Rhino I charted in 1997 at Gold ( the one and only ) Eagle website is still intact and the apex of its triangle is pointing to NOW. Mid year 1998, as was predicted by the price chart Rhino pattern. It is here. We may be looking at the test of the interest rate bottom of this Kondratieff Wave, and we may be ready for a renewed rise in rates and a gold bull as well. The Asian "troubles" are synchronous with the interest rate bottom, and a contributor, but troubles in finance invariably demand higher rate returns to compensate for risk. One way or the other, rates must rise for what Kitco lives for to materialize. This may be the turning point. Especially inasmuch as gold appears to have tested its bottom.
Avanti! Deflationists? Any thoughts?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:55 - ID#347447)
I did the Guylas, but not the Chicken Paprikas. I haven't been able to steal a chicken yet! All your recipes are solid gold!!!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:57 - ID#26793)
Bank of France mentions Bundesbank, Italian and U.S. gold holdings.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 20:57 - ID#45173)
A reformed deflationist says
This administration will inflate its way to kindom come before allowing deflation to take root.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:00 - ID#347447)
YESSSSS. But you must wait until the fall of this year before starting to accumulate the oils. Then you should look at Comstock Resources, Kelley Oil, and Falcon Oil & Gas. They all have very nice astrologicals and will be poised to move over the Winter/Spring coming.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:01 - ID#250297)
Mike Sheller
Tsk Tsk. The Papriks is even better than the Guyls. Go steal a chicken forthwith! ( Glad you liked yhe Guyls, though. )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:05 - ID#284255)
He obviously hasn't spoken to any of these experts.
But considers his opinion as worthy.

He does state some facts though - like:
"The world will survive."

time out

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:08 - ID#373403)
Gold investors feel burned?
Gold rose from 287 to 295 and mining stocks hardly budged. Whats up with that? Vote of no confidence from the equity crowd?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:09 - ID#401460)
MOF Japan will take action when Yen.......

Thursday June 18, 8:38 pm Eastern Time

Japan will take action when yen too weak -- MOF

TOKYO, June 19 ( Reuters ) - Japan will take action when the yen is excessively weak, Vice Finance Minister Koji Tanami told reporters on Friday.

Asked if Japan would still take action against an excessively weak yen, Tanami said: ``Yes we will take action.''

But he declined specific comment on the weakening of the yen overnight, saying the market moved constantly and the yen was a floating currency.

He added that Saturday's meeting in Tokyo of G7 deputies and financial officials from Asian countries was aimed at seeking ways to prevent a ``vicious cycle'' developing in the region.

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:11 - ID#250297)
More hypothetical questions
ALL: Let's say someone won the lottery and as a resuly won $2 million, with which they bought $2 million worth of Krugerrands at current prices. How could this small investor unwind them all and how could he know at what price to unwind and go into some other investment? After all, it is hard to eat that much gold, n'est pas?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:15 - ID#347447)
You are correct. ANY administration of ANY nation will inflate in the face of deflation. This is precisely what has drawn out Japan's troubles, and what made the Great Depression so inordinately long in the 1930's. Remember that this is the first Kondratieff Wave down phase in history wherein NO NATION ON EARTH has a currency system tied to gold in any way. Incessant and chronic inflation continues, and will ratchet up severely if the threat of deflation becomes truly serious. THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP THE CREATION OF AS MUCH FIAT MONEY AND CREDIT AS CENTRAL BANKS AND COHORT GOVERNMENTS WISH. That is why the world is awash with Yen, and it has done nothing for the tottering Japanese institutions this torrent of paper was meant to patch. Only one thing can cure an out of whack financial structure - fever, breakdown, collapse, bed rest, plenty of liquids, but no liquidity. Until all the inefficiencies, denial, chickanery, and corruption is washed away. Then health can return. A diseased body must be purged. It cannot simply be maintained in its diseased state without a crisis. It is NATURAL LAW. Governments cannot allow the people to experience falling prices, wages, and property values, even though this curative actually strengthens the purchase power of their money once again. People cling to their illusions, and would rather see their wages and "profits" rising each year, along with the prices they pay, so that they feel they are "getting somewhere." Even though it is really nowhere, and they are selling out the future purchase power of their savings and forcing themselves to choose to be wards of the state.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:17 - ID#347447)
Did you win a lottery, or did you finally decide to sell that damn fiddle?

Bully Beef
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:21 - ID#260119)
I think the overall volitility of gold is good or bullish.WHY?
Because a lot of people are looking at it. Jumping in and out of it. They are paying attention to it.Even if it has become another industrial commodity it ain't dead yet.Everytime it rallies I get more exited.Every day it is like almost winning the lottery.And it gets everybody back on subject.Dis is gooood YES?

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:22 - ID#250297)
Mike Sheller
Neither. You read too much into an innocent hypothetical. Besides, you were one of the ones who counciled AGAINST selling my Strad. Now, stop asking so many questions and go steal that chicken!!!! ( :- )

Bully Beef
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:28 - ID#260119)
Your fuels for the machine have all fallen because the machine isn't consuming like it was.
That is why they are cheap. Perhaps this is called a leading indicator.So those of us in OIL for ex. have already been burned. The people in general equities are about to be burned. As the economy picks up again ( in Ten years or so those of us who fuel the machine will be the first out of the starting gate. Maybe not the truth but it sounds nice.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:29 - ID#287186)
Promey - re: satellite deal, Clinton & House probe

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:37 - ID#266105)

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:46 - ID#250297)
A radio personaity, eh?
ROBNOEL: Thanks for the e-mail. It worked. I'll try to give you a listen ASAP. Looks interesting.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:51 - ID#348127)

I feel as though many investors are breathing easier today as they unloaded stocks. I don't feel as though today was merely profit taking but a day in which the common man around the world understood their was a bigger problem than they had been led to believe. I say this because of the manner in which the 5 o'clock national anchors described the goings on between US and Japan yesterday. Today was a day that many felt markets were up yesterday - better get out today. Just my gut talkin

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:54 - ID#23941)
Gold next 5 - 10 years
I have no doubt that gold will increase by at least 50% of the next 5 to 10 years, but I don't know if it will when inflation is taken into account

(Thu Jun 18 1998 21:55 - ID#288399)
Yen support
Looks like the magic is fading already; Asian markets "retreating" ( nice euphemism , huh? )

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:05 - ID#369138)
May I take a shot-STRAD?
A small investor with $2 million, would not doubt seek advice from
a "PRO", no? And who would put all of it into one thingy?
He would undoubtedly pay off his mortgage, take a trip, enjoy life,
and invest a portion into various investments from real estate to
markets, and some gold, like 10-25 % is about average.
BTW I too am one of those who advised at keeping your valued prized
posession, and still would today. There are more seasons than one
to do so, as in an inflationary depression, things like the fiddle,
would keep it's value, and be like gold.
My dad was a conservative, smart man, and his thingy was stamps, he
enjoyed collecting and saving, and he didn't do badly.
Please email you'll receive jokes for your trouble.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:18 - ID#401460)
What a difference a day makes!


Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:23 - ID#347447)
Strad and his 2 mil
Actually, Strad, having won the lottery, or sold his fiddle, or whatever, was wondering about the timing of the SALE of all the gold Kruggerrands he was going to buy with the ENTIRE 2 million. Now anyone with any investing sense would know that you can't put all your eggs into one basket ( except for that guy who said "put all your eggs in one basket - then watch the basket like a hawk." ) . So, in the interest of diversification, I would recommend putting 25% of the 2 mil in the Kruggerrands, 25% in Maple Leafs, 25% in Philharmonics, and 25% in Australian Nuggets. This will properly diversify the portfolio ( or should I say "hoard" ) . The REAL problem is when to sell all that physical gold, which is really meant to be put away in a vault, or a drawer, or a hole somewhere, for ever and ever ( unless you're a central bank, in which case you can wait til the price goes as low as possible and then sell it all ) . I know there are folks on this forum who think that $400 gold will be a day to rejoice. Maybe if you're long deferred futures when the rise starts up, but I say this is child's play for holders of bullion. The time to sell your bullion is when gold is at astronomical levels that make even Farfel and Another tremble. When their mouthes are gaping open in astonishment, that's the time to sell. When government bonds are at record interest, and inflation is so bad what with fuel and food so expensive its cheaper to eat money. Then, just as it is certain the world is ending and the peasants will only accept metal for their goats and their wheat, you can sell your gold and buy bonds, and maybe even a mutual fund or two. Not before. So if you're lucky enuf to come into a quick 2 mil, put half of it in bullion and lock the box and throw away the key. With the other half you can go into business, spend your time trading, or, like the people who have REALLY made it, sit and surf Kitco all day long wondering what to do next with your money.

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:24 - ID#320226)
Strad Master:

$2,000,000.00 US will buy 6,600 Krugerrands at $303.00 from

$240,900.00 will buy you 66 December 99 340 PUTS @ $3,650 per 100 oz contract from

Total Cost per 1 oz. Krugerrand with PUT option for is $339.53

You can not loose any money! If gold in December 1999 is below $340 oz. the PUT option will pay you. If gold is above $340 an oz you make money. Example:

1. Gold is $250 an oz.

( a ) You sell the 6,600 1 oz. Krugerrands for 1% over spot or $252.50 ea. Total $1,666,500.00

( b ) You sell the 66 December 1999 $340 puts for $340 minus $250 times 100oz or $9,000.00 ea. Total $594,000.00

( c ) $1,666,500.00/Krugerrands PLUS $594,000.00/PUTS equals $2,260,500.00, Now subtract the original $2,240,000.00 investment and you make $20,500.

2. $500 Gold. You sell the 6,600 Krugerrands 1% over spot for $505 ea. or $3,333,000.00 minus the $2,240,000.00 original investment for $1,093,000.00 Profit!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:26 - ID#43349)
the pictures in my mind
There was a psychologist one time who put about two dozen test subjects
together in a room. He had a picture projected up on to a screen that
was completely out of focus. Even though there was no way to tell what
it was a picture of, he had them each write down on a piece of paper
thier best guess of what it might be. Then he would bring the picture
slightly more into focus and have them make another guess.

Eventually the picture would become so well into focus that anyone who
had been out in the hall all this time could come walking in and easily
and immediately see what it was a picture of...but no one in the room
knew what they were looking at!

The mind is of such a nature that it will form preconcieved ideas of what
a situation might be before it has enough evidence to make a completely
valid conclusion. Then as more data becomes available it will actually
distort it's way of percieving things so as to fit it's preconcieved
notions. It will ignore or underplay the significance of non-supporting
evidence and exagerate the significance of supporting data.

The mind has evolved in this way for millions of years. It is a survival
feature. Back in cave man days the guy who took off running as soon as
he saw a hint of stripes up in a tree lived longer than the guy who had
to go up and feel the claws and see the teeth.

But preconcieved ideas can kill a man in combat or break him in trading.
The Samurai had a saying that the man least afraid to die would be the
one to live. In evaluating markets for the sake of financial gain it is
the man least afraid to be wrong who will eventually win all the marbles.

The best traders are those who can quickly form an opinion, but just as
quickly abandon it if circumstances dictate otherwise.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:29 - ID#256326)
Something happened......
Reify, Strad Master, Mike Sheller all on the same page. This is an omen and a good one!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:32 - ID#401460)
Rubin's Goldman Sachs

Thursday June 18, 10:17 pm Eastern Time

Asahi Bank to sell mutual funds managed by Goldman

TOKYO, June 19 ( Reuters ) - Asahi Bank Ltd ( 8322.T ) said on Friday it plans to sell investment trust funds managed
by a Japanese unit of Goldman Sachs through 350 domestic branches starting in December.

The Japanese unit, Goldman Sachs Investment Trust Management Co Ltd, will invest the funds in single A-rated
bonds in the U.S., Japanese and European markets, a spokesman for Asahi Bank said.

The bank is also considering selling the investment trust funds before December through its securities affliate, Asahi
Securities Co Ltd, it said.


The Fox is in the Hen House now!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:34 - ID#256326)
Strad Master
Just did our first visit to Buda and Margrit Island. ( OK, also to Pest! )
Hey, when can I book you into the Santa Fe Chamber Music Fest. Don't I wish!? gawd, music lives in central Europe!!!! Had a splendiferous time.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:36 - ID#347172)
Put $500,000 in gold, $500,000 in silver, $500,000 in oil royalties and $500,000 in gas royalties. You would be able to ride the coming wave of metal ups and downs and live comfortable off of the royalty checks that magically appear in your mailbox.

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:37 - ID#320226)
AJPM will buy Krugerrand at $296.00 and sellat $303.00 today.

Southern Coin buys Krugerrand 1 oz. +1.25% over spot and sells for +2.75% over.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:42 - ID#72316)
A Gollum
excellent post


(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:45 - ID#396249)
Strad Master....Radio is something I use to get the truth out,something CNN has a problem with,so

does NBC,CBS,ABC,PBS,NY get the
picture.........I recommend all read todays
commentary from Joesph Farah.....this may
shock a few........

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:48 - ID#320226)
To good to be true?
My 22:24 post will work for 100 oz. or more! Can anyone come up with a better no risk strategy for investing in GOLD?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:50 - ID#7568) (eastern.standard.time)

If you were conducting a currency intervention, what would your strategy be to lay a maximal hurt upon the speculative players who were acting against your plan?

Might you set it up so the specs saw after the initial intervention a retracement back to lower levels, and were emboldened to put on a few fresh shorts with the thought that you had given them an opportunity?

Would you be pleased that after this small retracement every pundit in the world came out with the stock line 'currency interventions can not work when the underlying fundamentals ....blah ...blah ... blah"?

Perhaps on a sleepy Friday in the summer with everyone heading off to the beach, you might come in with some serious lumber, and watch a little panic ensue.

Whatever you think about Bob R. and co., you better know that they know well the game they are playing. Perhaps they have a little surprise in store.

And to all a goodnight.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:52 - ID#287186)
Humor break: Namaste', Polar shift, etc. & a disturbing endnote.
Reasonable explanation of polar shift
A fairly good site - esp. the "What do I need to survive" link and the "safe places" link is worth a peek to see if you will be in deep doo doo.
check this out for the music and graphics
A Hopi page
A brief summary of a lot of prophets FWIW
And a disturbing prophecy from Kashmir {now in the crossfire between India and Pakistan} which echos some of the prophecies above.
"Kashmir is a lion but its sleeping yet When it awakes it will be difficult to control When this lion would roar the earth will shake, and oceans will turn upside down."
Thank you Promey for the lead to the link above.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:55 - ID#401460)
The Winds of Change


Gold may up 50% sooner than we think!
Rivlin, Clintons Lady on the Fed, appears to be in agreement with many of us.

Inflation is a concern in the face of the Asian crises!



Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:58 - ID#320226)
Does anyone understand my 22:24 post?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:59 - ID#431263)

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:59 - ID#320226)
Does anyone really care?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 22:59 - ID#45173)
GOOD LUCK MR. GORSKY - A TRUE STORY [yeah right] and waaaaaaay off topic
When Apollo Mission Astronaut Neil Armstrong first walked on the moon,
he not only gave his famous "one small step for man, one giant leap for
mankind" statement but followed it by several remarks, usual comments
about traffic between him, the other astronauts and Mission Control.
Just before he re-entered the lander, however, he made the enigmatic
remark "Good luck, Mr. Gorsky." Many people at NASA thought it was a
casual remark concerning some rival Soviet Cosmonaut. However, upon
checking, there was no Gorsky in either the Russian or American space

Over the years many people questioned Armstrong as to what the "Good
luck, Mr. Gorsky" statement meant, but Armstrong always just smiled.

A few years ago, ( on July 5, 1995, in Tampa Bay, FL ) while answering
questions following a speech, a reporter brought up the 26 year old
question to Armstrong. This time, as Mr. Gorsky had finally died,
Armstrong felt he could answer the question. He explained that when he
was a kid, he was playing baseball with a friend in the backyard. His
friend hit a fly ball which landed in the front of this neighbor's
bedroom windows. His neighbors were Mr. & Mrs. Gorsky. As he leaned
down to pick up the ball, young Armstrong heard Mrs. Gorsky shouting at
Mr. Gorsky. "Oral sex! You want oral sex?! You'll get oral sex when
the kid next door walks on the moon!"

True story, not a joke. He, Neil Armstrong, never told anyone until just


Got this from a pal in LA. Absolutely no guarantees whatsoever of authenticity offered.


(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:03 - ID#50148)
John Disney
Are there any web sites that you know of that would give me a clue as to the dividend payout dates of Western Deeps ( or whatever their post merger name is... ) I can't seem to find out much on the 'net. Thanks.....

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:07 - ID#320226)
Premium will kill you! The Mountie will always sell for more than the $310 oz Guarantee. BUT the Krugerrand and Put option sells for less than the $340 Guarantee.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:09 - ID#187109)
OJ is like gold(?)......uh huh.
I am in, RATHER LARGE, OJ shorts...........options, pero clar que s! and I expect to make a killing........ ( maybe ) . Thank you Dave @ Fever for more arrows for the battle......uh huh. Track it. the charts

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:10 - ID#45173)
Lurker 777: the audience for the topic of your post is not here yet
maybe later tonight, if you can wait. Best of luck to you.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:12 - ID#431263)
You'd better hope you don't have a fast market when you try to unwind your strangle or you could get seriously whipsawed! Or ANOTHER's prophecy about the coming destruction of gold paper might wipe out your puts before yiou have a chance to collect on them.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:15 - ID#250205)
I too am a computer programmer. Armstrong is right, the firm running the problem only check for Y2K problems - doesn't fix it. The firm charging outrageous fees are all the top 3 accounting firms. His point about software vs hardware is important. I know the plat he refers to it was GM. Most software is not proprietary it is off the shelf. The vast majority of business is running on PC platforms today - not old mainframes. The old mainframes he is also right about because they are in the government. I don't know what you are working on, but Y2K is keep all my friends busy but it is the chips and government that pose the big problems.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:22 - ID#43460)
Strad, my 2 centavos worth of pure conjecture.
With 2 million dollars, I think I'd forget the market. I'd spend about 10% on the Kruggerands you suggest, say 660 ounces. I'd bury about half former in Banff National Park or near Lake Louise and lease out the other half to futures traders. With 800,000 I'd build up a portfolio of underpriced agricultural properties, primarily good solid basic row crop land in southern Illinois or the Ohio Valley, With the next 800,000 I'd buy timberland with a good spread of harvestability from this summer to 20 years away. ( Such land to be bought with a 3 to one or 4 to 1 leverage, depending on the lender. ) ( Maybe some rice/crawfish swamp down in 'da Louisiana bayou 'jes for fun. ) The remainder I'd put into short and medium term government securities, as a way to pay the mortgage on the land during bad years. I'd live on leases from the farmland and timber harvests, raise the crawfish myself and try to develop a hotter pepper than habeneros to make some good sauce for them. IMHO

Actually all this moot, 'cause you'd have to win much more to get 2 million after taxes! IMHO

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:23 - ID#320226)
Here is the deal for 100 oz.
$30,300.00 US will buy 100 Krugerrands at $303.00

$3,650 will buy you 1 December 99 340 PUT ( 100 oz contract )

Total investment is $33,950.00

Total Cost per 1 oz. Krugerrand with PUT option for is $339.50

You can not loose any money! If gold in December 1999 is below $340 oz. the PUT option will pay you. If gold is above $340 an oz you make money. Example:

1. Gold is $250 an oz.

( a ) You sell the 100 1 oz. Krugerrands for 1% over spot or $252.50 ea. Total $25,250.00

( b ) You sell the 1 December 1999 $340 puts for $340 minus $250 times 100oz or $9,000.00

( c ) $25,250.00/Krugerrands PLUS $9,000.00/PUTS equals $34,250.00 Now subtract the original $33,950.00 investment and you make $300.00

2. $500 Gold. You sell the 100 Krugerrands 1% over spot for $505 ea. or $50,500.00 minus the $33,950.00 original investment for $16,550.00 Profit!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:24 - ID#187109)
sorry StudioR.........

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:28 - ID#287186)
The 700 Club has picked up Y2K in a big way.
Two special programs to be aired July 10th and August 7th {both Fridays}. Tonight's show talked of serious effects. specifically on medical care. "patients being injured or dying" due to Y2K. Medical equipment failing or malfunctioning. Medicare and other insurance providers unable to pay. Electric power out for days or months compromising hospitals abilility to provide care.
Again - what was said is not new to us. It is who said it and it what forum. THE 700 CLUB FOR GOSH SAKES!
The doo doo will hit the fan well before fall.
Yessirree - liquidate my leftover Christmas inventory now. This year's Christmas season will be shot! Retailers will be hurt badly and that will ripple throughout the economy as "consumer confidence" statistics tank.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:29 - ID#431263)
I think you should set up a limited partnership here on Kitco to test your approach and spread the risk in case the unforeseen manifests itself. If it succeeds we'll simply send you a monthly check to invest and we'll all get rich! Might even pay you a 1% commission or so to do all the paper work! What do you think?

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:30 - ID#207240)
There is a small problem of the equity you will need to sell naked puts, and the time-money equasion.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:34 - ID#287367)
@ Strad - Was it Aerosmith who sang "Dream On"?
If I had 2 mil to throw around, I wouldn't put it all in Krugers. First of all, I think you should consider allocating $250,000 to Johnson Matthey SILVER bars. Because the Gold/Silver ratio is historically high, you will get more silver for your money today and can exchange it for gold when the ratio goes down to say 20:1

Secondly, numismatic coins are an excellent value right now. Remember, they may be mining more gold and silver, but nobody's minting these coins any more.

PROOF gold coins are the BLUE CHIPS of numismatics. A PCGS certified set $1G ( types 1,2, and 3 ) , $2 1/2 ( Liberty and Indian ) , $3, $5 ( Lib and Indian ) , $10 ( Lib and Indian ) , and $20 ( Lib and St Gaudens ) shouldn't set you back much more than a couple of hundred grand.

A set of PCGS certified gold type coins ( as above ) in Mint State 65.

A set of PCGS certified 19th Century copper and silver type coins: Indian head cent, 2 cent piece, 3 cent silver, 3 cent nickel, half-dime, shield nickel, Liberty nickel, seated dime ( no arrows ) , seated dime with arrows ( '73 or '74 ) , seated quarter ( no arrows ) , seated quarter with arrows ( '73 or '74 ) , seated half ( no arrows ) , seated half with arrows ( '73 or '74 ) , Gobrecht dollar, seated dollar, and trade dollar in Mint State 65.

PCGS certified Key date Seated Liberty and Morgan dollars in Mint State 65 or better are currently an excellent value. Don't forget the Proof-only 1895 Morgan.

Pre-1933 gold and silver U.S. commemoratives are at 20% or less than their 1989 highs and VERY much desired by your average collector. A complete set in Mint State 66 is an EXCELLENT investment. ( You like ten-baggers? )

PCGS certified 1916 Standing Liberty quarter in MS 65 Full Head.

PCGS certified 1916 D ( enver ) dime in MS 65 Full Bands.

Whatever's left put half in bullion gold coins and half in US 10 year T-Bonds ( for income ) .

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:37 - ID#320226)
bright: I wont be selling naked Puts. I am buying Put options.
But the loss of interest ( 5.40% year ) SUCKS.

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: I will e-mail you my off shore account!

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:39 - ID#408228)
Lurker 777 sure thing?
I would suggest that your investment has an opportunity cost that you perhaps have ignored. If you invest the $2.2 million for 18 months in T-bills at a 5% yield, you would have received income of $168,000, which your strategy ignores. A long position with deep in the money puts leaves you effectively with an out of the money call position. The Dec 99 call struck at 340 closed at 6.80, which would cost about $45,000, without the needless complication of multiple transactions costs, and with your money earning interest.

As a general rule, the contango in gold is substantially less than the cost of carry. Unless you feel that it is imperative to own physical metal, paper gold is cheaper to finance.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:42 - ID#190411)
@Lurker 777... darn right I read yours
I scanned it to start, thinking it was more humor, ( Sheller's was good ) , and I had to read it a few times more. Is this the way it works?
I will ruminate a bit more.
Thanks for an illuminating post on a night with so many others too.

... back to digest a bit more.

(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:59 - ID#210235)
@Hi, guys.
Just taking a quick peek into the magical world of markets, and find that the rallies ( several ) that looked so promising yesterday appears to have fizzled without breaking any important trend lines.

This, while not surprising to the eternally cynical gloom-and-doom crowd, will make it even harder for the poor CNBC boys to put a cheery twist on the news come morning. Anyone have any bets on how long Ron Insana can last in that crowd, still occasionally speaking truth? He'll end up on the internet, I suppose, the last bastion of free speech in America.

Strad Master, don't do it! You don't want to be the guy who used to be the Strad Master, under any circumstances. Uh uh. Nope. Nada. Nicht. Nyet. Money, even gold and silver money, just ain't worth it!

Keep ( at least some of ) your powder dry. There may be some even better buying opportunities in the next couple of months. It's hard not to nibble at commodities, oil, and the beautiful precious at these levels, yes? Little nibbler, I am. You can't sell high unless you ___ ___ first, yes?

See ya! Promey

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 18 1998 23:59 - ID#320226)
RLubman You are correct .
But I guess I am a physical kind of guy.
Here is a thought Hmmmmm! What if Gold did go to $500.00 an oz. and you owned the Physical. How much taxes are you declaring on the Bullion gains? How much income is reported on the paper gains from your BROKER? Just a thought!