Wouldn't buy land now. Look what happened to real estate after October 1929 and October 1987. In the contraction following the inevitable coming stock market "correction", real estate values will plummet. I especially wouldn't buy real estate on margin ( with a mortgage ) ; your equity could easily get wiped out. AFTER the correction, you can buy the land at a discount.

I agree with you. I'd rather have the physical in my kicker. I don't trust the paper markets. What good is it if you have long paper gold positions, gold goes ballistic, and you have to accept settlement in worthless paper?

Hmmm, it the correction is as bad as you say it will be how much potential profit would there be in 2 million worth of S&P put options?

Ok cancel the mortgage, but farm land bought in big chunks at auction isn't overpriced. And they're not mining any more topsoil these days, unlike gold. IMHO ( &-^] )

I've been away for over a month. What's happened to Kitco's gold price
graphs?

Sometimes there are things that are more precious than gold. First it is yourself, then your family, especially your children.

You possess something that is unique. I can not go dig it out of the ground and replace it. From my limited knowledge I don't think it can be replaced.

My friend, as a Director in a Natural Resource company it would be easy for me to say sell it, and invest the money in us. No, you keep your treasure. Sometimes you never know how precious something is until you do not have it anymore.

Gold production expected to slide

By AMANDA LANG
New York Bureau The Financial Post
Gold producers worldwide expect to mine much less gold than they did even a year ago, the
Gold Institute says, as producers react to weaker bullion prices and continued fears of sales by
European central banks.
Meanwhile, the study says Canada's rank among international producers will fall from fourth
place to fifth by 2001 as China pulls slightly ahead.
Gold companies expect to increase worldwide production by just 1% a year on average over
the next four years, compared with former estimates of 3.6% a year, the institute says in the
report published yesterday.
Between 1981 and 1997, world gold production rose 90% from 41 million ounces to 79 million
ounces. Based on current estimates, total gold production will amount to 83.5 million ounces a
year by 2001.
South Africa, still the leading producer, expects to maintain production at about 15 million
ounces a year by lowering producer costs and improving productivity.
Canadian companies have made a sharp reversal of plans to expand gold production. Where
just a year ago production was expected to jump 13% by 2000, the producers now forecast a
drop of 8% by 2001.
The report also notes small Canadian exploration companies -- which have played a
significant role worldwide -- find raising capital more difficult in the wake of the Bre-X Minerals
Ltd. debacle.
A year ago, gold was trading near US$340 an ounce, compared with about US$290 today. As
the price has fallen, producers have scrambled to lower costs and have closed or delayed
opening more expensive mines.
Todd Hinrich, an analyst at ABN Amro Chicago Corp., said forecasting gold prices is harder
now than it was 12 months ago. Although uncertainty lingers about how much gold central
banks intend to sell and when they will sell it, a certain amount of that uncertainty is priced into
bullion now.
The strength of the US$ will be one of the primary forces behind the price of gold, Hinrich said,
not sales by central banks.
The strong US$ has been hard on North American gold producers, Hinrich said. By
comparison, Australian producers are selling gold at a higher price than they were a year ago
thanks to a weaker A$.
But John Lutley, president of the Gold Institute, said the uncertainty about how much gold
central banks will sell is keeping some short-sellers in gold.
"And speculators do control the price of gold on a day-to-day basis," he added.

Asia fuels trade troubles

Canada's April trade surplus sinks to $1.2 billion, while U.S. trade deficit
soars to record US$14.5 billion

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
Asia's sagging economies are starting to take a heavy toll on the trade positions of Canada
and the U.S., according to statistics for April released yesterday.
The Canadian trade surplus sank by a third to $1.2 billion -- its lowest in six months -- and the
U.S. trade deficit ballooned to a record US$14.5 billion.
This was more bad news for the C$, which lost all Wednesday's gains in a US0.44 tumble to
US67.98 in official trading. In international trading late yesterday it dropped as low as
US67.90, a whisker above the record closing low of US67.85 reached Monday.
The downturn in Asia is increasingly affecting the region's
appetite for Canadian and U.S. goods. Meanwhile, imports
to North America are rising, buoyed by a competitive
advantage brought about by weaker Asian currencies.
"Signs of the economic strain in the Far East are showing
through clearly in Canada's trade data, with exports
dropping to nearly every country in the region," said
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns Inc.
"If the gap between relative export and import growth
persists, Canada will be running trade deficits by
yearend."
Exports to Japan have fallen 34% so far this year and
43% since January 1997, said Statistics Canada.
"Exports to other East Asian countries have also fallen.
Substantial declines have been registered with South
Korea and Taiwan."
As for the U.S., Cooper said the trade report "had the
stamp of Asia written all over it -- a trend that will persist in the months ahead, possibly pushing
the deficit to as high as US$20 billion."
The U.S. trade deficit with Asia soared nearly 40% in the first four months of 1998.
News of Canada's shrinking trade surplus was just one factor contributing to the C$'s slide.
The currency also lost the lift it enjoyed from Wednesday's surprise round of currency market
intervention by the U.S. and Japan.
That move successfully rallied the sinking Japanese yen by about 5% against the US$. It also
gave nervous stock markets a boost and lifted battered commodity prices, most of which are
denominated in US$s.
Yesterday, the yen renewed its slide, dropping 1.53 yen to the US$ to 137.84. On Tuesday,
the US$ traded to an eight-year high of 147 yen.
Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, said the yen is likely to
retrace soon all the ground gained in Wednesday's intervention.
"The key question is whether the pop in the yen reflects a fundamental turn. We think not. We
still expect the yen to fall to 160 by the end of the year and wouldn't rule out deeper yen
weakness."
He added Japan could turn its currency around if it moved fast in cleaning up a mammoth debt
problem in its banking system, but this probably will not happen.
The U.S.'s aggressive defence of the yen was more likely done to appease China, which is
rumored to be considering a currency devaluation if the yen's slide continues, he said.
U.S. President Bill Clinton "does not want to find himself in the midst of a currency crisis when
he hobnobs in Beijing" next week.
In the stock market yesterday, Wednesday's rally in North America carried over into a gain of
6.4% on Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and a 4.4% advance for Tokyo's Nikkei 225 average.
North American stocks suffered moderate losses, while bond markets rallied. The Toronto
Stock Exchange 300 composite index lost 56.78 points, or 0.79%, and the Dow Jones industrial
average dropped 16.45 points, or 0.19%.

Always worth a look at the disciplined trading of APH. His comments today follow:

Date: Thu Jun 18 1998 18:40
APH ( Silver, Gold ) ID#255226:
Silver has not grathered the head of steam I was looking for and the XAU looks terrible and is heading for the gap near 60. Despite what I read here last night the XAU ALWAYS perdicts the next significant move in the metals. The new objective for July silver is 5.55 - 5.65 before another leg down into the seasonal lows near 7/1 which could bring silver under 5.00 again.

Aug Gold - 50% short at 295, short another 50% at 300 if it can get that high.

Aurophile: Maybe I'll get to use that Howard Ruff Water Purifier after all these years. Don't know if the Spud Gun will be of too much use if I'm reduced to eating the ammo.

Yeah, S&P puts could make a killing. But your timing must be exquisite, otherwise you're left holding dust. Options' premium value dissipate with time. I suppose if you buy deep-in-the-money Dec 2000 OEX leap-puts, they wouldn't disintegrate too quickly, and you wouldn't pay as much for time premium as you would with out-of-the-money puts. But who's to say the madness won't extend itself a bit longer, say to Dow 12,000. Would you eat your guts out while it went against you? Would you cut your losses when you lost 50%? Would you sit tight until option expiration? Who needs so many decisions and aggravation, when you can sit back with ( fully paid for ) coins, beautiful miniature ( irreplaceable and rare ) works of art, that you can enjoy at your leisure.

Lets look and think about what we have just witnessed.

June 17th 1998 - USG intervenes and supports yen.
Result - Absolute optimism, DOW gains 164 points,
TSE 51 and overnight ( June 18th ) NIKKEI gains 679,
not to mention other Asian markets.

June 18th 1998 - No spectacular financial/economic news.
Result - Absolutely confusing, DOW loses ground, TSE
loses ground and as of this writing ( June 19th ) NIKKEI
is losing ground as well as other Asian markets.

To my way of thinking this borders on insanity. How in
God's name can the movers and shakers of markets
have such a difference in perspective in a time frame of
a mere 24 hours when as far as I know, nothing of significance
has occurred? Please explain what it is that I don't understand
if you believe that you do.

This suggests to me that those who really move the markets
are in an EXTREME state of uncertainty and probably don't
have a much better idea of what might happen next than I do.

I don't know about you, but in this environment, I find it next
to IMPOSSIBLE to make what I hope will be rational investment
decisions.

Not neccessarily so. Have you heard of the efforts of the Plunge Protection Team?

- Steve

Buying the dips and selling the rallies, Daily

Irrational market decisions are the best. If the markets were rational we would all be rich. What do you think?

Never before have we seen markets like this AND had the internet to share 1 ) Mainstream news 2 ) Newsgroup news 3 ) On the spot commentary.

I think that the inevitable panic is probably upon us WAY sooner than we think, or thought. I've been quietly buying supplies thinking I was ahead of the curve ( Panic now, beat the rush ) . But, I'm heading out to round up the rest of the supplies This week. I'm of the opinion that the chink is in the armour, and Joe Sixpac will see this one coming. The whole thing is based on trust, and I don't see too much of it.

How can all the stock markets go down at the same time. That can happen when the US market comes down. At that point , some of the other markets will start to improve. They won't want to put their money in US equities.

Possibly but

dirt - I realize there are those that buy dips and sell rallies,
but, are there ENOUGH of these traders to cause some of
spikes we see, up or down? It just seems to me that when
you see BIG moves it would indicate more of a general concensus.

Steve in TO - I'm not sure how much to believe about the PPT.
There can and will be some fairly significant corrections from time
to time. If the PPT is everything some people think it to be then
it's difficult to understand why they jump in when a market corrects
maybe 3% in a week and not when a market corrects 8% or 9%
in a month.

was a suckers rally.
The US bonds were way down and the stocks up. When the market is behaving in a up pattern, bonds and stocks travel hand in hand.
The US hasn't finished its intervention and won't until the yen comes down to the 120 area and stays there for awhile .By the time that happens, ( mid-JUly ) our market will have shown that it has topped out by going down to 7500 and not being able to regain its footing because of bad earnings.
Then money will leave the us for bargains elsewhere.

Mark O'Meara will win the US Open.

OK
away...to enjoy the Olympic Club.......*All races Allowed* ( ? )


Sounds like very good and very timely advice from someone on the front lines. In my mind the question is when, not if, a general fear followed by panic occurs. There is enough mainstream reporting on this problem to at least raise a general public awareness. I think we are at that phase now. I look for some real world event, directly attributable to Y2K, to trigger the fear phase. I have no clue as to what that might be. Major power outage during testing? A big bank screw up that triggers a run on that bank? Phone lines down for a few days? Who knows. But when it occurs, preparation will become more difficult and more expensive. There will also be less of that most precious commodity, time.

Hi, Eric. How's the yen call spread hangin?

While it's slow here this morning, I thought I'd post a couple of examples of why this Y2k business is not as easy as the "silver bullet" vendors would have you believe. Hopefully, non-programmers can glean a bit of understanding that 1 ) Programmers can ( and have ) done some ingenious things in their code 2 ) All it takes is one instruction to fail.

My partner, who started programming on the IBM 650 in machine language, reports that y2k remediation is complicated by the perverse tendency of some programmers to come up with ( and use ) gimmicks in their code.

From his Autocoder days he remembers seeing the use of an op code in the program itself as a source of data. For example, a read-a-card instruction ( value 1 with a word mark ) assigned the label 'ONE' and being used to add one to a counter.

In the COBOL domain he has seen use of odd constants for shifting a 6-digit date from one form to another. Examples:

mmddyy to yymmdd

COMPUTE DATE2 = DATE1 * 10000.01 - 1

061898 * 10000.01 - 1 = 618980618.00

yymmdd to mmddyy

COMPUTE DATE4 = DATE3 * 100.0001

340523 * 100.0001 = 34052334.05

The answer in imbedded in the result, and is extracted in COBOL via a REDEFINES clause.

These, and other, usage habits, along with vagaries in variable naming conventions, will force users of automated y2k remediation tools ( those elusive 'silver bullets' ) to do some actual examination of the code itself.

ALL: I'm back for a short visit before bed. Anyone notice how the Asian markets are awash with red again this morning? Only Hong Kong is up about 50 points ( about .56% ) . Japan is down the least ( .61% ) while the rest are down between 1% to 5%. After yesterday's big runup, can anyone spell B...E...A...R T...R...A...P?

AFfter a few days gone I come back to notice as I expected nothing much had changed, including this board's quotes which are such a valuable feature. Maybe there has been some nuew on this matter somebody could pass along to me.

I notice gold stocks are still pretty weak - stinking weak would be a better expression. SWEC ( Stillwater ) has had a nice bounce back up near its recent highs making it by tfar the best perfomring in the precious metal group.

Otherwise, metals look like they are not going anywhere fast. Yen is strong in Europe suggesting the DOW will rally ( S&P Globex up 300 points - so much for the stock market crash. Suppose we should be glad as there isn't anymore preasrue on GOld stocks. Notice CDE got hit pretty good today. What's happening there anybody know.uess ses

Check out Bart's June 13 23:00 post at the Gold bar, coins, and stocks forum, aka K2. He is working on a new quote system. Suggestions can be sent to newcomer@kitco.com I think that is the right e mail. Will repost if not.

Corrections-- The post was June 12 @ 23:00
and the e mail is newlook@kitco.com Time to get some sleep!

Is their a point of singularity?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/dlr_yen_ed_2.html

While "unsolicited advise is seldom welcome" I suggest that maybe the "movers and shakers" bit is overdone by many. Very short term perhaps a few can move markets slightly, but I still subscribe to the theory the markets reflect even the smallest moves by you and me, even if it is only like a grain of sand at the beach. In other words, the markets are the sum total of all our moves.

Now that doesn't mean utterances of Rubin, like a few days ago he said the USG would not support the Yen, and whoops, all of a sudden we are supporting the Yen, doesn't influence the markets. It certainly does, short term, but it also says "who can you believe". I have found from long experience, hardly anyone. We can only make the best judgements based on total study and concentration and experience. The ole saying from the Latin, "experience is the best teacher". And then there is a bit of luck in any individual move, of course ;- ) GOOD LUCK!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/london_gol_2.html

The biggest concern in the markets is the coming economic recession due
to the yen being too high with respect to the dollar ( the actual problem
is just the dollar being too high with respect to damn near anything, but
a lot of people are too focused on the yen ) . There is an uncertainty as
to whether anyone is going to do anything about it due to the laisez faire attitude of the treasury ( up until they inrervened along with the
BOJ to support the yen ) . Adding spice to the mix is the secondary question of whether the Fed's next move will be to raise or lower rates.

The markets knee jerk reaction when Rubin and the BOJ stepped in was as
you saw. Upon reflection the markets cynicism as to whether this was a
serious move or a one time shot across the bow reasserted itself and
they moved back toward where they were before the spike.

Which way will they go next? As a guess I would say the yen/dollar will
drift back up to test the Rubin/BOJ resolve. Things will drift a bit
looking for a sense of direction witj a tendency to move in the direction
of the last spike.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980616/japan_urge_1.html

Please don't be too hard on the programmers of the 50s and 60s. One must be aware that the problem then was that main storage ( RAM ) and disk space was at a premium, therefore the programmer had to use all tricks of the trade to save another byte, yes we counted bytes then, you couldn't just add another 6 or so Gigabyte of disk space or 64Mb of RAM to your computer. The IBM 1401 hat some thousand bytes of RAM, I'm not sure but I think 16 Kb was held in high esteem. Remember this was all magnetic core memory, electronic memory was about $5 per byte, and was used only for the system registry and ALU ( Arithmetic and Logical Unit ) .

The IBM 360 model 40 had 64kB RAM and if you wanted to add another 64kB ( KILOBYTES, NOT MEGABYTES ) , you added a frame the size of a large wardrobe to the back of your mainframe. Of course when things rapidly improved in the 70s many programmers couldn't resist using their own abilities sort of to confuse the Russians. I have seen PLI code programmed by an assembler programmer, he performed table handling the Assembler way by using BIN numbers as indexes. The compiler wasn't too happy with it, the list of errors was longer than the code itself, but the program worked. I had to fix the programm after completing the PLI course, with no knowledge about Assembler. Anyway, in order to save bytes the date was always stored using 6 digits, for no one reckoned that these programs would still exist today. COBOL just won't die, it might even outlast Gold...

instead/in addition?

Let us hope XAU follows if it lasts.

GO GOLD!

Just watched http://www.quote.com/layout/index.frames.html?/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
( type in GCQ8 )
last was 295.4, suddenly ask was 298.9, a minute later bid 297.
whats up?
or, as a russian would say:
gogol

The yen is too weak. Printing more yen makes the yen weaker.

Japanese rates are too low. Newly printed yen would not stay in Japan
but head straight for the US.

There is already a flood of yen in the markets.

Internet quotes haven't caught up yet.

Hang on to your hats, folks!

better get your bets in.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

HighRise

The guys in New York better be wide awake when they get to their posts
this morning. The needles are jumping off the charts.

NASB ??

High Rise
Nice graph, indeed. TA calls such a move "a classic viagra".

NASB!

Not As Before

Lift off accomplished. Here's hoping we don't have another Challenger problem when the booster drops off. Three cheers for the yeller stuff.

And that thought was this, with everybody short gold, hating gold, not interested in gold,...., and this being a triple witch Friday, what would cause the most pain to the most players of options here? That's right, an unexpected rise in the price of gold for no apparent reason. Now what happens to all of those formerly in the money puts by the end of the day?

At 11:39 GMT spot gold was at 296.90/297.40. The South African Rand reached an all time low against the US$ today.

Kind of looks like some kind of news hit the guys who always seem to get
it first. Gold and Silver both jumped. Short interests will try to push
it down. In a little bit the news will begin to spread. I have a feeling
this is going to be a hot Friday.

already. The yen is down to 134 and change

Thanks for being "speedy" in alerting us to the jump in spot. For those of currently relying on quotes for Aug gold it is "much appreciated".

UP 2.06

Remember to look for the four to one ratio... If it isn't there, lookout. If it is there.... :- )

What is the 4 to 1 ratio?

Here is an interesting hypothesis from observer Chris Osborne in London - who comments about WHO IS BUYING ALL THE GOLD THAT HAS BEEN SOLD IN THE PAST THREE YEARS ????

Osborne conjectures there may well be collusion between two major Central Banks working through their Swiss Bank cohort to accumulate GOLD.

He notes the benefits accruing to all three banks by covertly buying up all the gold sold by much small Central Banks during the last three years.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html

I believe the ratio is closer to 3 to 1.

You are welcome.

My wife won't let me exercise watching Denise Austin, so I watch Bloomberg! ; )

I posted that the other day, but a quick review....

I use a rough rule of thumb when relating the MOVEMENT in the price of gold to the MOVEMENT in the gold mining share prices. It goes like this, if the price of gold moves up ONE percent then I expect the AVERAGE gold mining share to move about FOUR percent in value. Obviously, if gold is up then the shares should be up and vice versa...

When you TRADE mining shares, you're really buying leverage on gold and NOT gold per say.

Call me greedy... :- ) )

US DOLLAR SINKS 2.3% AGAINST YEN; YEN AT 134.63 TO US$.
US TREASURIES LOWER IN MORNING TRADING.
S&P FUTURES UP 3.60

Right now "I" would settle for 2 to 1.

WEAK DOLLAR IS FINAL LYNCHPIN IN HIGHER GOLD! WAKE UP GOLDBUGS--THIS IS IT!

GCQ-$298.40

Thanks.
I think the US will use the three weeks we have given Japan to tighten up their banks, as an excuse to continue intervening in the markets to support the yen. Any thoughts?

Kitco 24 hour spot gold chart is working.

WE ( IMF ) WILL SEE THAT RUSSIA GETS WHAT IT NEEDS=TURN ON THE PRINTING PRESSES--FULL SPEED AHEAD!

RECORD US TRADE DEFICIT YESTERDAY WAS THE FINAL STRAW! WE WILL BRING THE DOLLAR DOWN!

On Wednesday I set a bunch of stops on orders that I executed on Tuesday. Almost all of the stops got 'hit'. The one that didn't, I sold out on just before the close. For the amount of money made it wasn't worth the electricity to turn on the computer. The worst position lost about $3 ( remember the 'wash sale rule' folks... ) . Another rule that I have learned to use is, SET STOP LOSS ORDERS. After several years of trading this crappy gold market, I feel that it is better to make $50 than to lose $500. It is also better to make $100 and miss out on the $500+ move, only to have that move reverse in a few days and leave you with a $500+ loss. At some point, a longer term position will make sense for gold. Right now, well..... If the market does trend up, trailing stops work well too! The object of the game is to keep the money that you 'earn'. I'll stop here. I don't want to sound like I'm moralizing. Just call it, "I've been kicked in the butt too many times and had too many doubles turn into losers because I became euphoric about........" Moderation in all things.

that the 3 weeks ends after Clintons visit to China. What it may add up to is, a lot of intervention in the next 3 weeks,to prop up the yen and to reassure China that something is being done to help them with their potential trade deficit caused by the weak yen.

also means that Rubin and Greenspan sewe the next 3 weeks as crutial and that they see potentially tremendous volatility in Asia and the US in the next 3 weeks.
I think Rubin only intervened because a potentially unfixable crisis was going to take place.

I can make a good case for gold going up, then again, I always could. See my post to Frustrated. Also remember that today is a triple witch, the G7 is meeting this weekend, the government always tells the truth, buy and hold stocks for the long run, and the government is here to help you... :- ) )

Now, you're final test is to determine which of those statements above are true, false, or somewhere in-betwixt... :- ) )

Above all, keep a sense of humor and never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

as a bonus, end of July visit from Japanese Prime Minister to BC in DC buys us 5 weeks, as undoublty they would want to "save face" at least through then.

James Cramer just made a good point about you can rely on the players in place....Rubin, Greenspan, Seidman and Summers to turn this situation around. Thye have before and will this time.

That being the case look for natural resource stocks here to be what Citicorp was in early 1990's under $10. What is it up to, $160? HB

BBL...........

AND HE WILL!

All of the statements are true. That is obvious to any fool. What I want to know is "Does she really have flat knees?", and" Is it true that she didn"t swollow,but spit it in a hankee,that was then sent to Saddam?"

FULL SPEED AHEAD!

GOLD SPOT 296.95 +3.70 +1.26 ( 22:32 -- East/std Time Oz 19/6/98 )

What cheaper way could you knock the dollar down, than by goosing an oversold gold market up! The other short squeeze.

HB

BIS PURCHASES CONFIRM!

ted prices as with the top bar. Anyone else haveing this anomoly?

JSE gold index unchanged this morning despite $4 jump in spot gold. Something very wrong here. I have never seen this kind of action before.
Comments John Disney?

I am of the opinion that Rubin, Greenspan & Co. are the best and the brightest we have. They are as smart and gutsy and experienced as anyone could ask for. If the tree comes down, it won't be because of lack of effort ar ability on thier parts. It will ahve been the effect of something that was out of control before they came.

June 12.

According to USA Today

http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif

( Try control-r to force a reload in Netscape if you check this chart often. )

AND IT ALL RESTS IN OUR HANDS! WE WILL INFLATE! ONLY WAY OUT OF A GLOBAL DEPRESSION WHICH WILL DESTROY BC'S ECONOMY AND DOOM THE DEMOCRATS THIS FALL! BC IS MR. SHORT TERM! S&P FUTURES NOW STARTIN' TO TANK!

I too have been kicked in the butt many times during the past 2 years. I no longer buy any gold stocks on margin but still have a substantial proportion of my portfolio in gold ( none of which is now on margin ) .

I too have been employing stops on all new positions and will place stops on old positions as this market rises. I have great empathy for who have not been financially able to weather the losses and were forced to sell at such depressed prices.

Here's to better times...even if they may still be a way's off.

Caused by the dollar. Maybe RR and AG are going to let gold rise to overcome deflationary psychology?

Where is the BIS confirmation located? Please.

OIL WILL NOW BID FOR GOLD!

Your 8:35 post is good advice for everyone.

FULL SPEED AHEAD!

we have prices rising and Kitco not posting. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not!

Where can I find a confirmation that BIS is buying gold?

Sehr geehrter Herrn Ksekopf:

Wir Bitten Sie,

Turn off your Caps lock, Liebling. Danke schn.

Hochachtungsvoll!

All:

Once again we have run up near some big stops. It remains to be seen whether the shorts will pull another Houdini. Between here and 302 on spot there is some big business. The best look in the market will be a quiet drift to the upside then late day fireworks.

There have been some rumors in the market that Bob R. was overruled by El Presidente in the intervention sweepstakes. With the stock market giving a resounding vote of confidence to Mr. Bill, there is no doubt where policy is headed. Poor Mr. R must be apologizing to his friends on the street that make their living buying and selling treasury paper. He knows that a fatal blow has been struck.

The most astounding thing about the Yen intervention is the ease in which the market was moved 12 yen. The US Fed was rumored to have sold only around $1 billion, with some more coming from the BOJ. Such a small load of ammo, could only have had such a large effect, if the market was ripe. Perhaps there is something going on beneath the surface that speaks to a different set of fundamentals than is currently taken as the truth.

The bear case for the Yen is based largely on capital flows. The idea is that the large pool of Japanese savings will be leaving the mainland in search of higher yields than what is available at home. Since there is very little real time data to inform one of this kind of activity, a lot of it is just assumed as an explanation of other facts. Perhaps the reality is that much of the capital that was going to flee Japan has already fled. The big bang deregulation took place in April. Any citizen that was hell bent on buy some US or other foreign paper has by now had ample opportunity to make their way over to a bank and get the job done.

The other side of the coin, the trade deficit, is most assuredly pushing dollars back into Japan. The flow as currently measured is around $4 billion per month.

As the Cheesehead has so eloquently put it, the die has been cast. We are going to print as much reserve currency as the world needs. The Dow will go higher, bonds will go lower, Bill will claim victory for his brilliant leadership in saving the world. All will be fine until the the little squall in the bonds turns into a more fearsome storm. This is where the game will end and the piper will be paid.

Until then, eat, drink and buy gold ( silver too ) .

GCQ @ $299.10. Stephen Roach from Morgan Stanley claims that CHINA is behind the move to lower the dollar--THEY are calling the tune and BC is dancin' to it!

Another oddity...the XAU/AU 50 and 13 day moving averages are still pointing strongly down but spot gold 13 day M/A has turned up even though the 50 day is still pointing down.

Japan must save itself! We will bail out CHINA because they will be our #1 trading partner in the new millennium!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/s_p_cuts_m_1.html
Who put the BIS in MitsuBIShi, and are they pirating?

It US stock market has to come down to stop foreign investing.On a technical basis, the market looks very weak and There is a good chance that coming earnings reports will push it over the edge.

The U.S. doesn't need to be begged; it prints voluntarily.

Gold fund managers are having to unload in an illiquid market.

HB

.

I do think that China is our next partner and Japan is on the way out.

THURSDAY JUNE 18 1998
Personal View 

RUDI DORNBUSCH: In praise of hard money
Over the past 50 years, the Bundesbank has written the central banking textbook. The European Central Bank should study it
Fifty years ago, on June 20 1948, German monetary reform put an end to the Reichsmark and economic repression. As hard money celebrates its 50th anniversary in Germany this Saturday, it is also the end of the Bundesbank as Europe's monetary leader; step forward the European Central Bank. Europe is at a crossroads just as significant as the events that gave rise to the D-Mark and the Buba.

Nobody knew in 1948 what the bold removal of price controls and the introduction of a new money would mean, except that it could not be worse than the prevailing state of affairs: a war economy with controls and black marketeering, pervasive shortages, and collapsing production. Deregulation and monetary reform were an act of faith. Who could be sure that hyperinflation would not emerge, as it had in the 1920s?

US General Cassius Clay told the then economics minister Ludwig Erhard: "Mr Erhard, my advisers tell me your plans are crazy." And Erhard replied: "General, my advisers say the same." The rest is history: an economic miracle built on free market economics and on five decades of encompromising pursuit of price stability.

No other central bank has sustained price stability like the Buba. While the D-Mark's purchasing power is down to just one-quarter of what it was in 1948, that of the dollar is only 15 cents. Britain, Italy and France have done much worse.

The Buba has been so good at public relations it is tempting to overstate its success. Inflation has been between zero and 2 per cent in only 15 of the past 50 years, though no one else has fared nearly as well. Yet over the past 50 years, German inflation averaged 2.7 per cent, exceeding its goal of 1 or 1.5 per cent ( see chart ) .

There has always been an explanation: fixed exchange rates on the dollar in a world of over-expansion in the 1960s, two oil shocks in the 1970s, and the unification shock at the beginning of the 1990s - each a good reason for higher inflation. In each case, the Buba put out the fire. Could it have done better? No doubt. But not without even higher unemployment. Sheer toughness would not have paid off in higher credibility, and hence better results.

The fact that, even with a determined central bank, there has not been unqualified success has surely to do with unions and the welfare state. The Buba sets its money growth, while the welfare state and the unions determine the split. It always comes out as too much inflation and too little economic growth. One of the lessons of Buba must be that it takes two to foster credibility and performance: a tough central bank and a competitive economy.

Nonetheless, few would dispute that, over the past 50 years, the Buba has written the central banking textbook. Three central points emerge:

A commitment to price stability, not necessarily day to day, but clearly as a trend;

The easily verifiable targeting of monetary aggregates as the key commitment to price stability;

Reiterating to the German public the bank's promise of "price stability", but not necessarily of full employment, high growth and quick prosperity.

The ECB would do well to avoid monetary targeting - even the Buba could barely hold up the myth of a stable relationship between money and prices. Economic and monetary union does not guarantee stable aggregates, particularly as the process of financial restructuring creates quite different monetary instruments. Like everywhere else, inflation targeting should be the framework and interest rates the key instrument.

By contrast, the ECB should learn from the Buba that political independence can be gained only if the public trusts the central bank more than the politicians ( remember when the Buba stared down poor Theo Waigel, the finance minister, on the gold issue ) .

The Buba achieved that trust through decades of thoughtful communication, keeping close to the public - from savers to bankers to scholars - and building a constituency in support of hard money.

It was a traumatic monetary history that gave the Buba the backdrop against which to invoke the fears of inflation, but that does not diminish the accomplishment.

The precedent will be hard to match: just about everyone in Germany, from economics professors to housewives, the aged and the clergy, is distressed by the introduction of the euro. Emu has been achieved by haggling and compromise. It is a political ambition rather than a good idea in support of hard money. As a result, the ECB is starting off with a credibility deficit. It needs to make its case to the people; it cannot be satisfied just with making decisions and keeping quiet.

More will be celebrated in Frankfurt next Saturday than half a century of hard money in Germany. There is cause to celebrate too the worldwide acceptance, at least by central banks, that inflation is no answer to unemployment, even in the short term. There is no European or American central banker who has not at some time been driven to near despair by the Buba's insistence to stay its course. Yet they have all come on board. What better message to send to the ECB?

But those who will be present at the ceremony, from Helmut Kohl, the chancellor, to SPD leaders Gerhard Schrder and Oskar Lafontaine, badly need another message from the same history book. Central banks are easily overburdened. A heavy dose of competition and deregulation would work miracles for price stability and growth, as it did in 1948.

"I started early teaching my kids the value of a dollar. From then on, they demanded their allowances in gold."--culled from a list of actual quips by actual fathers.

got kids?

Although I have been one of the most bearish voices on gold on this site for the last year, this is from a trading perspective and, so far, has been the right side to be on.

I have always encouraged physical gold ownership if one has no gold, or if ones gold holdings do not properly hedge other investments. If gold is to be bought for possession, it should be bought in this neighborhood.

To dispel the impression that I am a recent convert, allow me to repost my capitulation that the bottom was in and the beginnings of my recommendations that clients buy gold for delivery.

This, from Jan 23, 1998:

"....I like it. I think the downside is just a retest of the lows around $280. I think it is much more likely that gold will rally. I'm not calling for an explosion, but I would like to add my voice to those that say the bottom is in.

I have, for the last several months been quite public with my bearish views on gold. I spent most of 1997 shorting gold to very good profits. I believe that gold saw a bottom at around 280 and I am recommending to my clients to start layering in physical purchases. I do not recommend leveraging gold, instead preferring platinum and silver for profits."

OK

Now that is clear, yes?

Yes

SPOT GOLD @ $297.40.

BCIWN:

The rise and fall in the stock market over the last two years has been predicated on gross liquidity rather than on valuation. The mutual fund money that is flowing towards these assets is surely not searching for value, but is chasing historic returns. In general it might as well be buying beanie babies.

Much of this money is captive in the sense that it is tax sheltered retirement money looking for a home. The choices are limited. The only way this money is going to stop flowing is if there is none of it to flow. The only way the flow is going to stop is if liquidity dries up. The only way that liquidity is going to dry up is if the Fed cranks short rates enought to squelch the US economy. This will only happen AFTER the Asian debacle has stabilized and there is some sense that recovery is at hand.

GO GOLD

Gold stock mutual fund holders are throwing in the towel and the managers of those funds must sell stocks at whatever price to raise the cash for redemptions.

HB

Houston, you have problem.

Chart looks like the Dollar/Yen chart when the dollar BOTTOMED OUT against the Yen! "Ive seen this movie before!"--Jim Cramer

If we can avoid a sell-off at the end of trading, next week smells sweet..

Indeedy

.........ah nice surprise, nice way to wake up to Gold + 3.50

l_b

Feels lke she wats to run but there is something standing in her way. Go gold run the son o bh over.
Shootin for 300 today.
I think she's gonna make it!!!!

FULL SPEED AHEAD!

Bill Murphy of the Veneros group reports that Ted Arnold's boy sold a lot of gold around $294. Will they continue to sell as their losses mount? Stay tuned.

GCQ @$299.10

TROUBLE AHEAD!

Panda Did you take your smart pills this morning? Yes I moved the Gold markets ---Have to make sure all those 300 puts and calls I sold months ago become worthless. ----Away to count the change

ABX and NEM

Also, the same goes for Silver. ( If you care to guess ) TIA Fox-Man

Date: Fri Jun 19 98 01:03
Royce St. Ives ( mcrcash@ Earthlink.net ) :
in excess of 10,000 metric tons of ( AU ) gold for sale --- Seven ( 7% ) discount Gross

Date: Fri Jun 19 98 00:55
Royce St. Ives ( mcrcash@ Earthlink.net ) :
Complex Concentrated Ore - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium and Rhodium -- Assay Report $2,602,572 per ton - will secure $110,000,000 loan 4 to 1 --- $440,000,000 ore for 110,000,000 loan

Thank you for your post.
However I would like to add that the ECB has the power to recall part or all of the reserves still held in regional CBs.
This of course includes GOLD.
The totality of GOLD held by countries ( the bulk belonging to GERMANY FRANCE and ITALY ) was not transfered to avoid the people realising that they were being robbed. Technically , they have no more control.
The interesting part will be , in case of a crisis , if the ECB calls some more reserves , will the EEC members comply?
I , as a mainland European , would not. If my government transfers more GOLD , I will consider it as a traitor to the nation and I will have a moral justification to stop them by ANY mean at my disposal.

COME ON, BABY!

OLD GOLD ( Something Smells ) ID#242325:
JSE gold index unchanged this morning despite $4 jump in spot gold. Something very wrong here. I have never seen this kind of action before.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It was a bounceback after bounce in gold.


http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=1d


Following the SI Dutch sale thread a bit. Interesting.

DOW STARTIN' TO TANK AS BOND YIELDS RISE!

SMILEY FACE

Fox-Man:

One of the big funds that is apparently very short both gold and silver, has historically been largely effected by the 200 day moving average or something that tracks reasonably close to it. Spot gold 200 day average is around the 302 level, while spot silver is around the 570 level. I have also heard that there are some pretty sizeable stops around 298.50 - 299 basis spot. In silver, if we take out the last high of around 547 then we should see some fun. Once the dealers sense that they can shoot for the big stops they will do so.

I keep waiting for this event to occur and have been quite disappointed to date. Perhaps today will be a different outcome. I have my fingers crossed and my bets in place.

Less than 1/2 billion went in, 1/10 what it was last week!

Nibbled a bit on one of Crock-O-Dial Undie's penny
fliers this morning, Laverton Gold; VSE; .03/.04 USD.
It hadn't traded since 6/12.

For Old Gold ..
The strangest thing ... the rand has collapsed today
again for no real reason.. to 5.49 this morning ...
I had switched dollars out at 5.1 and have an order to come
back at 5.55. This would be a VERY good gain in maybe
3 weeks.
Despite this .. with gold in rand at 1615 or so ..
the gold index was OFF 2 ( in weak rands ) at 3 pm.
I had some rands still here .. that I missed sell
limits on .. and am using them to buy rangold partly
which because of currency effect I get at 3/4 $. Cant
resist since half their assets dollar denominated
anyway.. I still suspect this is a fakeout .. the
market here seems to agree. Gold price in yen looks
BAD as does Platinum.
Hard to reconcile this rally with deflationary
effect of falling crude oil and other commodities.
If one believes that rubin the robber can turn this
whole world currency market around with one billion
$ ( on which he now has a profit ) .. then I believe
we will soon hear of other miracles to follow .. Has
he tried walking on water yet ??
PS .. somebody just told me the
G-7 meets this weekend .. Is that right ??

+4.50 to +5.30 in 4 minutes? What a rollercoaster!

I have observed the gold market for a good number of years but I have never seen equities respond as poorly as they have to the recent movement in the price of gold, particularly when the stocks have already been beaten down. This type of activity one would likely see at market tops, not bottoms. But I have also learned to expect the unexpected, and perhaps a "catch up" will take place, but I would not bet on it w/o some predictive evidence.

I see August Gold has hit a high of 300.80! Currently about 300.10
Fox-Man

UP $5.50! DOW ONLY UP 8 AND FALLIN'!

It looks like maybe the PPT is buying the dow and selling the pm stocks..
??...Somebody sure is selling them....

There is a government ( not G-7 ) meeting regarding the Yen; the details are in the following :



http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/SPECIAL/yenspin/yenspin0057.html

When I log on to Kitco I only get a small part of the commentary on this board because I only get what they will allow me to have. I want to look up the comments that are past and hour or two old and when I click on the button to do that I dont get it. can anyone help me since I am obviously and idiot with computers. bye

Just shorted Aug. Gold at 300. July Silver needs to clear 5.40

As you know we have been pounding the table about an impending gold price move to the upside because of the extraordinary set up. The specs massively short and deflation theme traders trapped everywhere or at least trying to decide how, or if, to get out of trades that have been big winners to date.
The kharma for gold has changed. Positive events are happening every day. Trichet says Germany, France, and Italy will not sell gold. Notice he said nothing about the Dutch..The Yen zooms and gold becomes cheaper gold country ( asia ) . The Russians are buying ( todays news on Reuters ) not selling.
We feel very strongly there has been an Asian central bank buyer has been absorbing the spec and Aussie hedge selling. The Aussie are hedged for the next 4 plus years. If they all try and get out, look out. We will get that big move, especially if the Dutch selling is over or such small amount is left that it is easily absorber.
For better or worse, that is what I think.
Bill

{:- )

A recap:

Date: Thu Jun 18 1998 10:15

EB ( bright........ ( sunshiny day ) ) ID#187109:

I have an order in right now for LONG en....it will get filled and en will keep it's ( current ) path........this is a

leeeetle breather allowing the small fish to enter the game ;- ) uh huh.

away...to purchase a neckbrace..........

whipsawfree

---------------------------------------------

Date: Thu Jun 18 1998 10:44

EB ( *en Fill* ) ID#187109:

Track this one Crystall Bally......

Sept en:

bought 7700 call

sold 7900 call

at 40pts = 500 + commish.......

now trading at 39pts.....doh!

Tick-Tock....Tick-Tock....that mouse will run up the clock..... ( ? )

away.....to chase this thingy....... ( ohno! )

gonnafoldat20ticks......allaboard!!

go sugar ( ! )

-------------------------------------

Date: Fri Jun 19 1998 02:45

Crystal Ball ( @ EB ) ID#287367:

Hi, Eric. How's the yen call spread hangin?

-----------------------------------

Very well thanks........... ;- )

Did anyone else have the ( crystall ) Balls to go long that en?? There is still time....no? Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...the mouse will continue it's run up the clock...........ohmy! The spread is too 'rich' to liquidate now ( only 58pts ) but it will be 'ripe' for 'picking' closer to expiry when en levels off at 7800/8000ish+....9000ish not out of the question or should I say 120/110 ( ? ) ........uh huh. And then the shorting game starts all over again and RR steps in AGAIN to pad his Bahaman account. A strong en *is* a good thing for all, YES? ( most importantly ME )

away...to *hang* and watch and smile and cheer.....rah rah!



JD - I see the SA team tied their last match ( the cup ) ....something like three yellow cards and two reds?? Hmmmmmmm....that was a friendly game.

go plat!

Bond at 5.73! XAU at 70.80!

Where are you getting your spot gold quotes from?

With gold up $5, XAU should be up much more than it is. DROOY is even lower! If the SPOOs started crashing, I think mining stocks would be sucked down the sewer. The market is telling you ANOTHER is right: Buy physical gold. Accept no substitutes.

They sold dollars & bought Hang Seng. My brother-in-law is over there and he said everyone is talking about dirty deals. I thought it was strange that US intervenes in $ and never before did any President attend the press conference himself. Such things were always Treasury guys only. Looks like Clinton's in bed with China on a lot more than people suspect.
Who knows?

TICK -465

your frame ( just above the Mountie advertisement ) . Click on the
dates, times, etc to checkmark them and then click on update. See
if that works for ya... Fox-Man

Does look unusual, doesn't it. It is not entirely unexpected however.
The equities markets will be driven by earnings reports once the tension
of this asian thing is relieved. With many companies already on very thin
profit margins the increase in raw material prices as commodities rise
and the cost of raising money as bond prices fall will not bode well.

If the yen continues to hold and recover and the the dollar weaken it
will be good for precious metals and bad for equities.

Precious metals are linked to bond rates more strongly than to equities.

LOOK OUT BELOOOOOOOOOOOOOW! Spot Gold @ $298.80 UP $5.80! DOW STARTIN' DEATH SPIRAL--NOW NEGATIVE ON DAY!

OmniTrader has issued a buy signal for the Aussi Gold Index. This program, together with MetaStock is a lethal weapon. The Buy signal was issued on the 17-Jun-1998 at about 1050. The program issued the last sell signal on the 27-Apr-1998 when the index stood at about 1400, a top. No trading signals in between. Previous signals on the Gold Index have been pretty accurate too. However care must be taken with smaller companies for their trading is more irratic. By the way, the above program issued a sell signal for KRY on the 12-May-1998 at $CAN 6.20, I didn't act immediately however kept a close watch on the stock and managed to sell at $CAN 5.20 as well as cancelling a limit buy order for $5.00. Close call that was, just one day later.... As mentioned so often here DISCIPLINE!!!, something which I still have to learn, without even the best software is pretty useless.

A GOOD LEADING INDICATOR FOR DOW DIRECTION!

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/061998/world16_27546.html

When changing the time frame from whatever is current, be sure you have only ONE check mark showing ( for the time frame you want to read ) AND that the DATE is the right one.

Where do I find out more about Omni-trader?

GCQ @$330.30! YE HAH!

DOW DOWN 13

http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/newsid_35000/35938.stm
Nice pictures of gold too...

The gold stocks are waiting for the 301 marker to be taken out. They are still smarting from the reversal that occurred a week ago Tuesday. They want to be convinced that it is for real this time. Go Gold!!

Thanks for the comments which are well-taken. What I am waiting for as a key is how the equities respond when gold sells off.

Oh, yeah, you DO have to click the SUBMIT button after you have made your selection.

Good for you, EB ! Speaking of balls, I see APH stepped in front of the GOLDEN freight train and sold August Gold. I would have waited for this move to lose momentum and stochastics to roll over. Better be a day trade and better have a VERY close stop, APH. After such a strong week, I wouldn't hold a gold short over the weekend. You'd feel pretty sick to wake up Monday morning. and see August gold at $312. There's been a HUGE change in the fundamentals of this market now that it has been decided to torpedo the US dollar.

you wish. I normally do that when catching up on overnight posts.

all of the mining companies rely on copper to keep their per ounce gold production price down. XAU won't explode until copper gets up off its' ass.

RANGY - RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION CO ADR
Exchange: NASDAQ
Delay: at least 15 minutes
Last Price: 23/32 at 10:27
Change: Down 5/32 ( -17.86% )

The XAU just passed 71, up 2.88%, starting to look a little better.

My experience is that one has to track equities and gold seperately.
Although both respond to rates movements they each have their own agendas.

If gold were to sell off because of some central bank selling rumor, equities would ignore it. If because the US went crazy and decided to
strengthen the dollar they would both drop like a rock. If because Japan
had decided to sell gold and build manufacturing plants in the US equities would likely go up.

Are requesting permission for Lunar mission.

Very high posting activity here today and the Kitco server is holding up in great fashion. That and working quotes, and soaring metals ... what more can a guy ask for???

Way to go BartMan!!!

HenryD ( Go Gold ... to the MOON! )

To whoever ..
Someone asked about ex-dividend dates for RSA
stocks .. I have phoned SHARENET and asked them to
include this info on their URL as a free service..
Do a search for sharenet and you will find their
URL. They said they would start providing in a few
days.
Its not that Im so persuasive .. but I pointed out
to them that they were already providing the service
to their phone line downloaders and it should be a
simple matter to post the same info on the URL. We'll
see.
One proviso .. ADR ex - div dates are not always
the same as the RSA script dates.

latest surge in the POG. By now, the general investing public is very
aware of the phenomena in gold called the "false rally" Let us
face reality, 298 $ gold is still a very poor price on which to
base profits in a gold mine.

Bid/ask hasn't changed. Somebody dumped 17000 shares, and thats all.

Thought I'd check in before going to work. Anything happening?

I did not know that. Seems to me that when I first came to Kitco six months ago, I forgot to remove one of the check marks and had some problems, but it's been too long, now. I'll give it a try again. I, too, knew nothing of computers and made a lot of mistakes. VERY frustrating. Persistence is a necessity when first learning. Thanks, Avalon.

.

My favorite NASA line, coming back into comm from
the dark side of the moon for the first time:

Houston: "Welcome back. Were you worried?"

One of the astronauts: "Well, it crossed my
mind that this whole thing was built by the
lowest bidder."

to wipe it clean. I also noticed it looks like it will be a very hot
day today. We may hit 95. Oh, by the way... while cleaning the smudge
off my screen I noticed.......GOLD UP!!!......SILVER UP!!!!!.....
Thanks,
Fox-Man

.

appreciates the kind comments.

Please Bart, don't kick me off, I'm not advertising... OmniTrader is produced by Nirvana Systems, their webpage is at http://www.nirv.com/. The program issues Buy/Sell signals by using the proper indicators according to the trading pattern of an individual stock or index. A vote is taken using 8 or so of the most appropriate indicators such as Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, Moving Averages etc. If the majority of the indicators issue a certain signal then the signal is displayed at the Voting Line. The charts are displayed using Candle Sticks pattern which is in my opinion far easier to recognise than bar charts, it's worthwile to study candle pattern charting. The indicators can be displayed together with the chart and an Advisor comment can be displayed explaining the reasons for the issued signal. Still, even OmniTrader is not the Holy Grail, a fact which Nirvana Systems does not hide. After several years of trial and error I have decided to either give up or spend some money to acquire the proper tools and spend time to gain some knowledge. A decent computer say Pentium 266 with at least 64Mb RAM I believe is necessary to run OmniTrader together with MetaStock plus 3 or so web pages, although a slower computer will do as long as one doesn't skimp on memory. Never forget, if you trade you should get the best tools you can afford for one good trade may pay for the whole investment.

The marketeers can loosely be classified as the quick and the prudent.
There are those who react quickly and intuitively to the news that
signals a fundamental turning point and those who wait to see confirmation. Sometimes the quick get burned and sometimes the prudent
lose out.

Because of this we often see a spike in prices as the quick jump in only
to see prices settle as the "sell on rallies" crowd step in. Later prices
begin to move in the direction of the spike as the prudent begin to get
on board.

The spike can just as easily be a dip if fundamentals are turning in
the opposite direction.

This phenomenon often creates a "double bottom" or "double top" formation
at turning points.

In precious metals the quick seem to be a little more concentrated in the
commodity and the prudent in the stocks.

There go the beanies.......ohmy! And the Meal too.......YES.

Alas, :- ( I have no corn......and neither does APH ( ? ) .....bummer that one.

away...to love it and love it...



where is that Eldo dude??

Our associate in N.Y. said the buying in the U.S. was P.W.
Other good tidbits. Strong trade gold buying in N. Y. with hedge fund covering. We are told it is because they were short Yen and getting out of this deflation trade. This is exactly what we thought should happen and it is. Only the beginning, if we are right.
Also Brunei out of nowhere bombing the golden-eagle web site ( 38 times since last night ) . Is the sultan ready to be a buyer again?
Bill

Is Randgold and Exploration a publicly traded company and if so what do you think of them as an investment. Being the parent company of Randgold Resources and others, it looks like the risk is spread out better than being invested in their satellite companies.

Ha ha. If he had thought about it sooner as well as the fact it was lowest bidder as directed by government planning he never would have
gone in the first place. You know, they must drug those guys.

Fox-Man

Goldkm posed a thoughtful question ( Wed Jun 17 ) and provided a good answer ) golddkm ( Japanese Yen... I'll answer my own 17:55 post. The reason the Japanese ) are not coming here is that the yen tripled in value against the dollar between 1985 and 1995, and has only now retrenched to the level of a "respectable gain".Currencies as WEAPONS- [capitalization SDRer]

( 1 ) When "They" direct your eyes to the yen, think dollar; when "They" ask you to view the Euro, think dollar; when "They" point to the baht, think dollar; it has been--it is--all about the dollar.

( 2 ) We are watching a war, a New Paradigm War, a war fought in new ways over old issues; a war whose primary battles occur in cyberspace. But do not for a moment be deluded, it is WAR. One was surprised to hear. in a recent Japanese/Asian conference the "infamous" words of past Secretary of the Treasury Connely ( to the then president of the Bundesbank ) reiterated: "It is our currency, but it is your problem."
The World means to redress the "Problem".

( 3 ) Derivatives are the symptom of the "mal de monnaie". When we hear that a hedge fund has does 'this' or 'that' we need to remember the China Futures Engineering Company, Limited. We need to consider that their CEO's doctoral thesis was a masterpiece on "time-sequencing".

( 4 ) Our charts and trends are less dependable because of derivatives. Think about it: when it is possible to strip a simple, straightforward single Treasury bond, and attach it to over sixty clever new instruments, viewing our charts becomes not unlike deciphering Rorschach test ( and it helps not at all that Rorschach was Swiss ) .

( 5 ) As mathematical algorithms become more distorted, political algorithms require closer scrutiny. For example, "Power" doesn't visit, "Power" doesn't "go to"; "Power" is visited, "Power" receives delegations; on the eve of the Pearl Harbor, a Japanese trade delegation was "visiting" Washington.

John Disney -- Thanks, t'was I making the request.....

The Dow/Gold Ratio was 29.37 moments ago. It was only yesterday that it broke through the 50 day moving average. Today it broke through the Fibonacci 89 day moving average and is just short of the 100 day M/A now.

Fox-Man

Are we going to have a little bear trap here? Charlie

Any paricular reason for the PM's to be up this AM? I like what I see, but have become so paranoid I'm afraid I might be dreaming. Haven't seen any techie explanations, yet. Maybe it's just TIME Please, Lord ...

Thank you. That is indeed an arrangement of which I was unaware. I have historically recognized your posts to be of exceptional quality and am therefore inclined to accept your information as absolute truth without troubling to do additional research. Yet, given your sentiment toward additional gold divestitures ( and assuming that to be the prevailing attitude across Europe ) , I struggle with the idea that the agreements would allow for such an open-ended arrangement for reserve demands. I beleive I would be pulling my hair out in aggravation...

Sure seems to me like the major averages have put in volatile rounded tops recently and the overweight female is warming up her vocal cords. This kind of top really clicks because the markets are so HUGE in value that any bear market swing would take awhile to manifest itself-sort of like a redwood tree toppling over versus a sapling. The traders must be raking it in in the meantime, eh?

I guess the main thing is the BOJ made inquiries on the trading exchange
as to the current currency prices. This coupled with high treasury officials going to Japan, intervention in the yen/dollar by the US and
BOJ working together, G7 conference conveniently located in Tokyo, etc.
has led to growing conviction central banks are going to get serious
about the currency situation. The market had been strengthening slowly
all night and the shorts began to get out. It turned into a rout.

Can only say that complex systems are like old farm equipment. Plenty of ingenuity and good old fashion bailing wire hold it all together. Truly large, complex systems of systems are the result of decades of accretion of programming practice and mispractise. Onesie twosie systems have a chance, but this big conglomerations are irremediable.

Check out the major utility that stopped counting its embedded processors after the 300,000 count. As well as the utility that doesn't know what its installed base of code is. 8 of 109 largest electricity suppliers HAVE NOT FINISHED ASSESSMENT, mon. And they are ALL dependent on the telecom fabric to juggle the power they produce and distribute.

------

From: Dennis Elenburg delenburg@yahoo.com
To: post y2k-news@y2kwatch.com
Date: 6/19/98 10:24am
Subject: Ed Yourdon on the Power Grid

--------

FishNet: Internet service for business and ministry http://www.fni.com/

Y2k Weatherman Report #45

Ed Yourdon ( author of "Timebomb 2000" ) is one of the most well known
computer consultants in the world. Ed has nothing to gain by being a
Y2k doom and gloomer. In fact, his entire career is at stake. Ed is
betting the farm on Y2k being more than a "speed bump." ( Actually, Ed
moved from NYC to rural New Mexico, so he is betting *ON* the farm. )

Here is the lastest post from Ed's weekly column ( used with permission ) .

-------

Welcome to the Y2000 E-Mail Advisor, a weekly electronic briefing
from Ed Yourdon, Director of the Cutter Consortium's Y2000 Advisory
Service.

THE AFTERMATH OF SENATOR BENNETT'S Y2000 UTILITY HEARING

Many of my personal friends ignore the steadily rising coverage of
Y2000 issues in the popular media, on the assumption that it's
exaggerated hype, or that it simply doesn't matter. But when the
venerable *New York Times* reported, back on 13 January, that IBM had
officially informed the FAA that the obsolete mainframe computers
used for air traffic control were guaranteed NOT to work on 1 January
2000, I suddenly got a flurry of panicky phone calls. "What's going
on? This isn't real, is it?" they asked, as if I were to blame for
the bad news. If the news had come from me, they could have ignored
it; but since it came from the *New York Times*, it was perceived as
unimpeachable truth. So they continued complaining: "This is
unacceptable! Can you imagine how devastating it would be if the
airports shut down? Why don't they just fix it?"

A similar flurry of phone calls and e-mail messages has exploded this
past weekend, in the aftermath of the 12 June Senate hearings on the
Y2000 utility problem, conducted by Senator Bennett's committee ( see
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554598441-32c for
details ) . Senator Dodd was reported to be "visibly angry" about the
situation, which sounds to me as if he's been in a deep slumber for
the past couple of years, and is only now awakening to the gravity of
the situation. Only two of the top 10 utilities surveyed by the
committee had finished the assessment phase of their Y2000 project;
one utility reported that it didn't know how much code it had;
another said that it stopped counting its embedded systems after it
reached 300,000; and none had completed a Y2000 contingency plan.
Senator Bennett concluded that there is a 40% chance of a nationwide
power outage on 1 January 2000, to which my friends have responded by
complaining in their phone calls and e-mail messages, "Shocking!
Outrageous! This is unacceptable! Do you realize what would happen
if the lights went out?"

Welcome to the party, folks. This is what Y2000 is all about -- it's
not a game, it's not an illusion, and it's not the result of
exaggerated alarmist fantasies created by greedy Y2000 vendors.
If anything, the situation is probably worse than Senator Bennett's
committee currently believes, because the data is based on "self"-
reporting of status and progress, rather than independent
assessments. Even assuming that everyone is acting honestly
and ethically, the status reports are likely to be optimistic;
and given the enormous political pressure associated with Y2000,
there's always a chance that the status reports are less than
honest. A recent report in the *Washington Post*
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-06/12/034r-061298-idx.html )

highlights this point: the Defense Department's inspector general has
discovered that between 265 and 338 of a total of 430 DOD systems
reported as Y2000-compliant may not be compliant after all, because
they have not followed procedures required to obtain Y2000
certification. The Y2000 project managers were under pressure to
report progress, and so they dutifully reported progress. "Shocking!
Outrageous! This is unacceptable!" my friends would complain, if
only they knew. Welcome to the real world, folks; this is what's
been going on in software projects since I learned how to program 35
years ago, and probably long before that.

The Y2000 optimists will continue arguing that everything is fine,
and that not only will DOD be fully prepared for the new millennium,
but that none of the utilities will experience a serious problem
either. Well, maybe one or two utilities will go down for a little
while ( An hour? A day? A week? A month? Who knows? ) but the
optimists believe that the nationwide power grid will not be
endangered. But when the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, James Hoecker, acknowledged in Senator Bennett's 12 June
hearing that, "The state of Year 2000 readiness of the utility
industry is largely unknown," a few of the Senators were
understandably concerned. When Michael Gent, from the North American
Electric Reliability Council ( NERC ) said, "Year 2000 poses the threat
that common mode failures ... or the coincident loss of multiple
facilities could result in stressing the electric system to the point
of a cascading outage over a large area," there was even more
concern. But the optimists can find reassurance in a subsequent
comment from Gent: "I must stress this possibility is extremely low,
but conceivable."

Back in the 1960s, at the height of the Cold War, nuclear conflict
between the US and USSR was considered "unthinkable." Aside from
satirical movies like *Doctor Strangelove*, and the occasional book
like Herman Kahn's *Thinking about the Unthinkable*, detailed
discussions about the consequences were considered politically
incorrect. Eloquent essays by people like Richard Bach, who wrote
about the prospect of "nuclear winter" in the *New Yorker* created
the impression that the consequences were so awful that it would be
better not to talk about it; perhaps if we didn't acknowledge its
existence, it wouldn't happen. It's much like the advice we give our
young children, when they tell us they are terrified of a monster in
their closet when they go to sleep at night: "Just keep telling
yourself there's no monster, and everything will be okay."

Arguably, the strategy succeeded with the issue of nuclear conflicts
( though the topic is still controversial enough that we could argue
at length about it ) . But now the monster takes the form of a
Y2000-induced breakdown in utilities; there are other monsters in the
form of banking, telecommunications, and government services, but the
nationwide power grid is clearly the Godzilla of Y2000 monsters. And
Y2000 is not like the Cold War; we can't expect a Y2000-Reagan to
out-charm and out-spend a Y2000-Gorbachev. Senator Bennett's hearing
has reminded us that the thumping noise we hear in our metaphorical
closet is getting louder, and that it might not be our imagination.
We are facing the same terror our children face at night, and those
whom we rely upon as "parents" are not giving us very reassuring news.

If the monster is real, then what? Some organizations already have
backup generators, but as the January 1998 ice storm in eastern
Canada demonstrated vividly, very very few have planned for long-term
usage of their generators. Some organizations have no backup power,
but are financially equipped to spend the money if they believe the
problem is sufficiently urgent; on the other hand, the backlogs for
scarce supplies will eliminate that option within another few months.
Meanwhile, most small and medium-sized businesses have no options at
all: they lack the finances, the resources, and the conviction to
provide long-term alternative power. Assuming that your company is
in this situation, let me offer at least one tiny, practical piece of
advice: get UPS equipment and the most heavy-duty, industrial-strength
surge protectors you can find -- and do it now. Even assuming that
we don't have nationwide blackouts for days or weeks on end, it's
highly likely that the isolated utility failures will create so many
spikes, surges, brownouts, and power fluctuations that it will fry
every piece of electrical equipment in your office. It's not just
the PCs and networks and laser printers that are at risk -- it's also
the fax machines, the phone systems, the typewriters, and everything
else that's plugged into the electric socket.

Beyond that, we may have to contemplate several months, or longer, of
electric service that's as erratic and unreliable as the Third World
countries. Have you taken a vacation in the Caribbean in the past
few years? Have you visited the developing countries in Eastern
Europe, Africa, or Asia recently? Have you noticed that there are
sometimes *planned* outages for several hours a day, every day, for
months on end? Or that unexpected brownouts and blackouts can strike
at any point, shutting down equipment and turning off the lights?
That's what we probably face in a little more than 500 days. I say
"probably" only because it's the socially acceptable term in today's
political climate; in my mind, the proper term is "definitely."

The interesting thing about the power situation in the developing
countries is that life goes on. Not as quickly, not as efficiently,
not as productively -- but society, government, and industry in these
countries manage to cope with it. The lack of reliable, efficient
utilities is one of the reasons they *are* developing nations, with
industrial output much smaller than that of North America and Western
Europe -- but they manage to cope with it. We, too, may face a
third-world form of utilities on 1 January 2000, and it will be such
a shock that some organizations won't survive. I plan to cope with
it, simply because the alternative is unacceptable -- and I think the
question that Y2000 contingency planners have to ask their senior
management is, "If the Y2000 utility monster is real, do we plan to
cope with it? If so, how?"

Ciao!
Ed
-----------------

If you'd like to comment on today's Y2000 E-Mail Advisor, send e-mail
to yourdon@cutter.com, or send a letter by fax to +1 781 648 8707 or
by mail to The Y2000 E-Mail Advisor, Cutter Consortium, 37 Broadway,
Arlington, MA 02174-5552 USA
-------------------

Cutter Consortium's Y2000 Benchmarking Service provides you with two
written reports a year comparing your company's Y2000 compliance
status with that of other organizations in your industry and
demographic profile. Benchmark reports are an influential tool that
can be used to prove that your Y2000 group is on schedule, or to
convince your organization to divert more resources to its Y2000
project. To find out how you can benchmark your organization,
contact Lynn Wilczynski at +1 781 641 5122 or lynnw@cutter.com
-----------------

( c ) 1998 Cutter Consortium. All rights reserved.


Y2k Weatherman Comments:

I can only add two words to Ed's column: "Be Prepared!"


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Go away for a week and the gold price goes up. Rock and roll.

Email me at polloa@webtv.net

was 11.26 now 13.33 An 18.4% increase in one 24 hour period. Ouch! or Ahhh!!! depending on where you stood when the barrel landed.

NASB

Good points. I agree that for those and other reasons at times, gold and equities may move in unison and at other times there are divergencies, and it is not always clear in such divergencies which trend to follow. But, it is also clear that when there are strong divergencies such as now, a cautionary red flag should be heeded. In the present case, the reason for the rise in gold may be merely short-covering and having nothing to do with fundamentals which may account why the equities have not risen accordingly as they are anticipating a pull-back after the shorts have covered. But, this is mere speculation - and why IMO it is very difficult to make big money in trading as quick and sudden movements may take place at unexpected times for uncertain reasons before one has an opportunity to react - and by then, it is usually too late or one is in the danger zone. What I find of interest today is that money is flowing into the market, there is decent volume, but it is met by determined distribution: Ie, over 250,000 shares of ASL have traded at the stock is unchanged. Now, I suspect this is going on in a number of stocks and if this distribution is overcome at these resistance levels, I would expect the stocks to pop. If not, ?.

All: I think we need to watch the evolution of this Russian news. This may be highly significant. Do we have a gold bear trap as chas is warning us, or is the gold shift more than a one day affair? I don't know. I think the most important information will be whether the Russian situation is a 'flash in the pan' or really serious. Russia can't go on much longer the way it is going.

R. Dornbusch: Thanks to whoever posted his comments. RD is well connected in the American establishment economist crowd. His pro-gold stance in relation to the Bundesbank and the EURO launch may be a very important clue that there is a fundamental shift going on. Would be nice to know if the US government has been buying gold. If I were AG, I certainly would.

All: Unfortunately, if we wish to ride the gold bug Tsunami right now, we must be on our toes for another deflationary implosion. There may be some more tent pegs to go -- especially China, or South America.

Keep ( most of ) your powder dry! Gold will do even better after the deflationary periods are over.

for TSclaw
I think much less risk in lots of
things spread out than one big thing
like RRS .. also is not very liquid.
One must also like Mali .. and that
takes a little doing.

As the doller grows stronger against most other currencies, we can trade US$ for more gold, as the dollar falls against other currencies we get less gold for the same US$. Here in America we talk about the price of gold going up and down. It looks to me that gold is the constant and it is the price of US$ that go up and down. Is this oversimplification?

That's the kind of rout I like to see. Thanks, Gollum. Hope your wife continues to improve.

NEW YORK, June 19 ( Reuters ) - Jeepers! Inc. has canceled
its $34.5 million initial public offering due to market
conditions, the underwriter for the deal, Piper Jaffray, said
Friday.

The company, which owns and operates indoor family theme
parks, had planned to offer 2 million shares at a $14-$16 price
range.

It had planeed to use the proceeds from the deal to fund
the development of new parks, and for general corporate
purposes.

( ( --Wall Street Desk, 212-859-1727 ) ) REUTERS
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

@All
By "market conditions" of course they mean the brand spanking new as of this week equities bear market. No necessarily a gold bull, market, however. Depends on the cause of the equities market bear and the Fed response. As deflationary forces are met with inflationary Fed policy to arrest deflationary momentum, gold will rise. IMHO
-EJ

I am so deeply homesick for my beloved Maryland. But today, as I look at the AU action, I bring to mind the words of the great Chuck Thompson, announcer for the Baltimore Orioles, who, when Boog Powell or Brooks would hit one over the fence, and put the Orioles up by three or four runs, would say,

Ain't the beer cold!

In the words of big Al Einstein, "It all depends on your point of reference, baby"

I quite agree. In this instance, however, we have commodities in general
moving up, bond yields moving up, dollar moving down against the yen,
oil has moved up, and a whole slew of things that indicate a paradigm
shift was triggered by the US/BOJ intervention. Altogether a much more
solid feel than one would get with just some bear market rally.

If it true that a shift in direction for the dollar has taken place or
that an effective cap has been put on the yen/dollar then one would
expect commodites to rise. Now, money itself is a sort of commodity so
one would expect the cost of money - that is to say the cost of borrowing - to rise also. If rates go up, then equites go down. This
also appears to be happening which adds to the conviction that the
markets are not as before.

Thank you. She was up walking around a little yesterday, and should be
back home by Sunday, God willing.

It does

Your point is OK in regard to currencies alone, but is oversimplified in relation to what currencies are used for--to buy goods.
Gold's perceived value can be determined as moving up or down when compared to its purchasing power ( via a common denominator such as the Dollar ) of other goods, such as a gallon of milk or barrel of oil. But then, these goods float around relative to each other also.

Friday June 19, 11:41 am Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries pare losses as dollar/yen off lows

*U.S. Treasuries off lows as dollar edges higher against yen. *As 30-year bond yield nears 5.75 pct, buying emerges. *Activity
very light. GovPx volume a low $36 billion. *Hedging of Treasuries for spread products aid mkt decline. *Dealers said longs
dumped on expectations of further losses.

Each day better than the last, but not as bright as the day to come. God bless.

I wonder if all the talk of deflation finally got people shaking in their boots. Inflation would be the better choice. Perhaps the market manipulation of POG will stop and let the POG go up?

GCQ @ $301.10! YES!

Sometimes oversimplification is the best way to look at things. Any
commodity can be looked at as though it were a currency to a greater or
lesser extent and any currency can be looked upon as a commodity.

Right now there is much exuberance becuase the price of gold is up. But
so is oil, silver, soybeans, etc. So although one might get more dollars
for an ounce of gold as the dollar goes down it is entirely possible for
ones net buying power to stay the same or even diminish....

SDRer - remember how one of your web surfing expeditions bounced you from the Bank of Japan to the Bank of Jamaica?
I did a multi-engine search on "Arab Gulf Cooperation Council" and "gold holdings" and wound up in the Japanese Embassy in Oman...
hmmmmm

WOW! The 100 Day moving average of spot gold is at $299.30 and Aug Gold has about a $1.30 premium over the spot market so that is $300.70. It seems like we stalded there but now are thru it. The 200 DMA is at $303.20 that will offer some resistence.

I'm sorry the premium of Aug Gold over spot should read about $1.40

I'm waiting to see the one o'clock goblin get stomped.

Allen ( USA ) :

Your warning that power supplies will soon become unreliable, in addition to your suggestion that we acquire industrial grade surge protection, might well also include a small discussion on 12-volt batteries ( of the automobile starting, if not massive golfcart-type ) , AC/DC, inverters, battery chargers, etc.

This technology is available through marine supply stores and would effectively solve low-amperage usage such computers, fax machines, telephones ( if the phone lines remain reliable ) etc. and would not ( at this stage ) even be particularly expensive to put in place.

Friday June 19, 8:33 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Homestake Reports Interim Results Following Acquisition of Plutonic

SAN FRANCISCO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --June 18, 1998--Homestake Mining Company ( NYSE: HM - news ) today reported
interim operating results for the one-month and five-month periods ended May 31, 1998. This summary financial information is
the first to be published following the business combination with Plutonic Resources Limited on April 30, 1998, which was
accounted for as a pooling of interests. The merger agreement between Homestake and Plutonic and pooling-of-interests
accounting require publishing of results for at least thirty days of combined operations.

Homestake recorded net losses of $9.2 million or $0.04 per share and $34.8 million or $0.16 per share during the one-month and
five-month periods ended May 31, 1998, respectively. The month's results include $15 million of pretax foreign exchange losses,
primarily unrealized noncash mark-to-market adjustments on the Company's foreign currency protection program. The
five-month results include $20.7 million of pretax expenses relating to the business combination with Plutonic, $15.8 million of
pretax foreign exchange losses and $8.9 million of pretax costs associated with the restructuring of the underground operations at
the Homestake mine in South Dakota. Excluding the effects of these significant charges, Homestake recorded income before taxes
and minority interests of $8 million and $23.9 million in the one-month and five-month periods ended May 31, 1998, respectively.

Homestake's and Plutonic's combined operations have performed very well during 1998, producing 230,800 ounces of gold and
gold equivalent at a total cash cost of $199 per ounce during the month of May and 1,094,900 ounces of gold and gold equivalent
at a total cash cost of $207 per ounce during the five-month period ended May 31, 1998.

A significant portion of the Company's operating costs is denominated in Australian and Canadian dollars. The Company's foreign
currency protection program was established to mitigate the effects of a strengthening of either of these currencies by establishing
ranges within which the United States dollar may be exchanged for Australian and Canadian dollars. Australian and Canadian
exchange rates have declined significantly since the Company entered into its current foreign exchange contracts and have caused
the Company to record the noncash foreign exchange losses described above. If these currencies remain depressed throughout the
life of the foreign currency contracts, at the time the contracts are settled, the Company will have realized an equal and offsetting
benefit through lower reported US dollar operating costs.

During June 1998, Homestake closed out one million ounces of the Australian dollar-denominated forward gold contracts which
Plutonic had entered into prior to its acquisition by Homestake. The pretax gain of $5 million realized as a result of this action will
be deferred and recorded in income as the originally designated production is delivered.

Homestake Mining Company is an international gold mining company with substantial operations and exploration in the United
States, Australia and Canada. Homestake also has active exploration programs in Latin America and in Eastern Europe, and
development and/or evaluation projects in Chile and Bulgaria. It has received numerous industry environmental and safety awards
for its responsible environmental, health and safety stewardships.

NEW YORK, June 19 ( Reuters ) - The A.S.K. business barometer
fell 0.1 percent in the week ending June 13 to the 107.5
percent level, A.S.K. Financial Research said Friday.
The survey's production measure also fell 0.4 percent to
the 105.6 percent level, after last week's downwardly revised 0.1-percent rise.
"On the surface, these cumulative declines suggest that the
U.S. economy is starting to decelerate, especially in the
manufacturing sector," A.S.K. said.
But A.S.K. added that the recent General Motors
strike may be more to blame for the weakness in manufacturing
than fundamentals. Excluding auto production, A.S.K.'s
production measure was unchanged.
In addition, vigorous consumer spending, which rose 1.0
percent, helped erase much of the weakness of the past few
weeks, the report said. The barometer measures production, consumption, and investment, according to A.S.K.

So, according to A.S.K., the US economy looks like it's decelerating, except that it isn't really if you take into account the GM stike, except that it really is if you take into account a recent blip in consumer spending.

Geez. Cogent and decisive economic research analysis like this really takes the guesswork out of investing.
-EJ

http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_116000/116038.stm
JTF - you just wouldn't think that plumbing repairs would escalate like this ( perhaps something else is afoot as you suggested ) .

..you just know that kick is gonna come ( ouch! )

Ya gotta read between the lines.

Oh, by the way, I got up my courage this morning and gave the gold lever
a yank. Enjoy!

MARKET UPDATE ( 6/19/98 ) AM ----Gold began its assault on the $300 mark this morning chalking up an amost $5 gain. Two announcements yesterday were behind the strong showing this morning: First, the Arab Gulf States Cooperation Council's announcement that it was considering increasing its gold holdings substantially "to keep parity with the European average of 10% to 15%. Second, the Bank of France stressed that "they are not going to sell any gold in the near future" and that, in fact, "nobody would be selling gold in the near future." The "nobody" presumably means the bigger central banks in Europe.

The first instance points to the beginning of a potential gold domino effect as one economic bloc after another aligns itself to compete with, and/or co-exist with, the new euro. These moves, in our opinion, have to do with gold regaining a foothold in the world monetary system. As for the second, the Europeans, led by Germany, have a strong affinity to the yellow metal dating all the way back to the nightmare German inflation of 1920's where many ( most ) German families were wiped out. These scars on the German psyche are not easily washed away. ( An old-time, now retired Wall Streeter once told me that Alan Greenspan's penchant for sound money came from his family's loss of everything they had in that inflationary episode -- never was able to check that out. ) The French have had similar experiences in their history ( John Law ) which explain their strong attachment to gold. Together these two countries control the fate of Europe due to the political ( legal ) structure of the Maastricht agreement. In both countries now there are strong sentiments against the new euro because many believe that the euro will be a weaker currency than the franc or deutshmark. As a result the politicians, and even central bankers, are pushed toward gold as a means to build confidence in the new currency -- that word confidence is an important one. There, of course, is a third option -- the one brought forward by Friend of ANOTHER that the Bank for International Settlements might be buying for its own account. All of this, though, to say the least is bullish for the yellow.

As we said yesterday, it could very well be that the next bull market in gold will be carried on the shoulders of gold's re-introduction into the monetary system, first as a reserve holding, and then ultimately, as a percentage backing currencies. I believe this system most probably will be designed along the lines of Bretton Woods. Why do I believe this? Because of the number of high level conferences and seminars in establishment circles in recent where just that the subject was discussed. The high level brainstorming included a commission chaired by ex-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker on the restoration of the Bretton Woods arrangement. Ultimately, the United States will be pulled into the gold vortex willingly or not. The question is what will be the American response? And in what will be the timetable?

For investors, our advice remains the same: Accumulate the physical metal for the medium to long term as a hedge against what could happen in the United States as these adjustments are made. All of this is something to comtemplate on what seems to be shaping up as a beautiful week-end across the land and the weekend of the annual United States Open Championship. It was an interesting first round with several good players strategically placed. I pick Freddy Couples for the win. My son, who is a fairly good player himself getting ready for the Colorado Open, says he likes Tom Lehman's chances -- he say's Tom worked his way into position on the Nike tour, deserves where he finds himself, and will hold up under the pressure. This prediction business is fraught with agony and error, though and I wish I could keep myself from putting it on the line in this venue. So it goes..................... Have a good weekend, fellow goldmeisters. Gold is skyrocketing and we send this over to the server -- up $5.60. We'll see if it holds.

I do not think that I have ever seen a POG +$7.00 day ... but it is looking like today might just be that day...

Would like to see some of this translated in shares...go DROOY
I am up 1/8 this week...more to come??

Go Gold...

Friday June 19, 11:56 am Eastern Time

German shares little changed ahead of G7 meeting

FRANKFURT, June 19 ( Reuters ) - German shares were little changed on Friday with trading expected to remain cautious as
investors awaited the outcome of Saturday meetings between Group of Seven ( G7 ) and Asian financial officials.

By 1332 GMT, the Xetra DAX, which reflects all-day electronic trade climbed 0.18 percent, to 5,700.16.

``We are sitting on a powder keg. Everyone is a bit afraid. The market can keep going up bit by bit but if there's any really bad
news it could fall significantly,'' one dealer said.

The expiry of stock and index options on Friday had increased turnover and volatility, traders said.

Germany's share market has tottered all week as it looked for clear signals from Asia about the worsening crisis there.

Traders said Wednesday's U.S.-Japanese intervention to prop up the yen, which had fallen to an eight-year low versus the dollar,
was only a stop-gap measure and that Japanese officials needed to take further steps to restore confidence.

U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged Japan to make permanent tax cuts and to reform its banking system at
talks in Tokyo on Friday.

Financial experts said the United States and the rest of the G7 would seek to reassure Asian markets over the weekend.

If you look at cross rates for their currencies I
believe that minimum acceptable levels for the yen
would be 220 to the pound, 75 to the dmark, 90 yen to
the swiss. If they go below these levels, these countries
may start selling the yen as fast as the USA buys it.. these
limits would equate to about 133 yen which is ALMOST
where the yen has settled.
Now if you look at a yen gold chart, you can see
a new thin trading range around 40000, and a BIG hole
below about 39500 that reaches to 38000.
So .. gold should top out at 40000/133 = 301 spot.
and maybe fall fast to 38000/133 = 286

Does that give you a warm cozy feeling ?
( Now watch it go straight up )


To the gentlemen who is p!ssed at rangold fall in
price ..
Read my posts.. I just said I bought some at
3/4 today in RSA. The price anomaly between NY and
RSA was arbitraged by someone/some way.

MM: Interesting post. The Japanese ( despite their current failings ) do think ahead long term better than many Western countries. They know they cannot survive without oil, so they must maintain strong connections with the oil producers. With the dollar apparently peaking, the Japanese may be eager to diversify into gold, since it may soon be a more valuable asset. And -- during periods of currency turmoil, Gold for Oil would be a good safe backup to ensure that the Oil continues to flow.

Japanese gold reserves are low conmpared to other Western countries, and now we have the official announcement that the EURO will be 10-15% backed by gold. The Japanese must by more gold to match this ratio for the Yen. Anyone know who much the US dollar would be worth if it was 10-15% backed by gold? I'll bet it would be alot more than $300/oz! Unless AG has been quietly buying gold -- I doubt it.

Zurich late afternoon: $298.50 up $7.00

With all the kicking around Gold has taken recently, it's still acting as a medium of exchange between fiat currencies. All the Gold that has supposedly been shorted, sold forward and leased has gone somewhere, and few talk about this. I can only suspect that a select group is behind the bad press, while secretly accumulating at rediculously
low prices.....

They're soft-peddling the news that the economy is slowing down.

Thanks for the tug on the gold lever, but I'm afraid it's spring-loaded and won't stay in the correct position until someone breaks the inflation lever off in the "up" position. Or maybe someone accidentally ignites that 8000 gallon canister of liquid natural gas equities solvent that's stored there in the back room and that takes the bond doo-dah out with it.

Glad to hear your wife's up and about.

-EJ

To all
Sorry .. having trouble posting ..
That example should have started by
assuming that the UK swiss and germans
were not in this game .. It was
US and Japan .. Thus they would
protect their OWN cross rates with
the yen regardless of the exercise
that Rubin is involved in..
Hope you can follow if you're
intersted ..

Since NY Times requires registration I am reproducing an op ed article by Abe Rosenthal.

For a discussion of the economic fallout, go to Princeton Economics home page and click on the picture of our maximum leader.

A thought comes to mind, had the Russians funded the Carter Presidency they could have kept their Soviet empire.


"The Clinton policy for dealing with major dictatorships is now fully revealed in its magnificent simplicity -- speak softly, throw away sticks, drop gracefully to one knee, present gifts and sing "Oh, Promise Me." For some years, the policy has been no secret to the dictators or those Americans who bother to pay attention. The results have been productive, no denying that.

For example, for China it produced U.S. satellite technology to sharpen the aim of its missiles, for North Korea a growing trade in the export of missiles and for Iraq a free hand to slaughter all Iraqis who oppose Saddam Hussein and a plan to end sanctions and start again to rebuild its military power. For America it also produced something -- a trash can full of broken promises.

But on Wednesday Secretary of State Albright added a high shine to Clintonian appeasement policy by including under its sheltering arms the Government of Iran. Yes indeed, the Iran that executed thousands of its own citizens, held 53 Americans hostage for 444 days in the U.S. Embassy, the same Iran that boasts of its infiltration of Bosnia, that killed Jews in Buenos Aires and almost daily sends to Damascus a planeload of weapons and funds for terrorists around the world. As arranged, President Clinton, the Great Crooner himself, joined in the song, asking "a sense" that Iranians "are prepared" to turn away from terrorism and distribution of weapons. Just promise me a sense; national policy. All this followed his decision not to apply sanctions against Russia and France for providing the money to develop an Iranian gas field. That was prelude and signal to Ms. Albright's offer to work with Iran on a "road map" to friendship if only Iran would behave better; never mind the murder and hate Iran has spread around the word.

The proposal was supposedly made because Iranians elected a "moderate" as President. But the U.S. and every other nation knows that political, military and government power is not held in Iran by President Mohammad Khatami -- who incidentally spreads non-moderate hatred himself whenever in the mood. Those powers are held by a regime of fundamentalist ayatollahs and their security armies, who turned the country into a hell for Iranians and the command post for international terrorism. As recently as March 25, Bruce Riedel, the top Iran officer for the National Security Council, said Iran was the "principal state sponsor" of terrorist groups in the Mideast.

The Clintonian rationalization will be that the choreographed overture to Iran is support for Iranians who voted for President Khatami. In truth, it will strengthen their tormentors, make it more difficult to overthrow them. By pretending that the Iranian regime that lives by terrorism might end it, by absolving countries pouring money into the Government and therefore its killers and floggers, the U.S. announces it will not try to punish or even hamper the regime, and despite the past, would help it.

Why does Mr. Clinton do these things -- approve strengthening Chinese missile forces, permit Saddam Hussein to slaughter his people, build the prestige of the Iranian despotism, court and get the contempt of dictators, and earn nothing much more for the U.S. than a good view of the backsides of our European allies as they walk away from us toward the trade troughs of tyrannies? Let Mr. Clinton and his entourage conjure up phony rationalizations -- but we know, we know and so does Congress. Money.

Like most of America's allies and partners, trade is his overriding goal in dealing with the dictatorships -- trade, not freedom, not human rights, not principle. He has lined America up at China's trough, costing America $50 billion a year for the privilege, and is now jostling for a similar place at Iran's. For the mirage of money, under the tutelage and rod of China-trade lobbies, he leads America to suffer political loss and humiliation, threats to its security and the end of principle in foreign policy.

I wonder -- by now is he even capable of seeing where American principle lies? After all, it does not show on the balance sheet -- that is, not until some new Pearl Harbor, or invasion of Kuwait, or some second explosion at the World Trade Center, something like that."

I knew that. that's why I pulled your chain :- )
I think they are not just soft pedaling it but maybe even back pedaling it.

The more I think about it the more interesting I think it would be to see
a plot of earnigs surprises.

For those who need it, here is the url of the PEI home page.

http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

That's why they named it "A.S.K. Financial Research,"
instead of "T.E.L.L. Financial Research." :- )

Good points. If we want to see the real goods to goods variations we should use a ratio that cancels out the intermediate currency. Such as $/oz gold divided by $/Bbl oil to give Bbl oil for oz of gold. This of course must be viewed with the underlying currency and respective goods markets in mind.

This is like Donald's DOW/Gold ratio.

moregold; I agree with you entirely. I was talking with a business associate yesterday, and he told me he was short gold at the moment ( he is probably covering today ) . I explained to him the point that you bring up, that when the CB'S ( central banks ) sell huge quantities of gold, someone is buyinmg huge quantities of gold. Who would have pockets deep enough to absorb this huge amount of gold that has been sold over the past two years? George Soros? Warren Buffet? Iran? Iraq? whoever it is they have bought it at a rediculously low price, and one thing is for sure it was not Joe public. Joe public will be the guy who buys between $340 and $400/oz.

moregold; I agree with you entirely. I was talking with a business associate yesterday, and he told me he was short gold at the moment ( he is probably covering today ) . I explained to him the point that you bring up, that when the CB'S ( central banks ) sell huge quantities of gold, someone is buyinmg huge quantities of gold. Who would have pockets deep enough to absorb this huge amount of gold that has been sold over the past two years? George Soros? Warren Buffet? Iran? Iraq? whoever it is they have bought it at a rediculously low price, and one thing is for sure it was not Joe public. Joe public will be the guy who buys between $340 and $400/oz.

I appreciate and welcome your comments, but I submt nothing new fundamentally has taken place to justify a paridigm shift. The movement in the various commodites and bond yields is what would be expected of oversold markets engendered by the sharp rise in the Dollar and subsequent pressure relief due to Yen intervention. But the intervention does not change the basic fundamental picture unless Japan follows up with fiscal or monetary steps to support the YEN and this seemingly cannot take place without parlimentary approval which seems unlikely in quick time due to elections, etc. Therefore, although I agree the market action is encouraging, I am far from convinced that a new paridigm shift has taken place without more fundamental evidence, and this is what the equities appear to be also saying, at least at this moment of time. Maybe by the end of the day, they, and resultingly I, will be more convinced. In any event, I hope you are right in the interest of my portfolio.

having trouble making first post

Only time is the true judge and you could well be right.

There is however one significant thing that IS different. Last week we
were looking at years of the US not having intervened in the currency
markets and Japan hung out to dry all alone. This week we are not.

Gollum, Very happy to read your wife is on the mend!!! G-d is watching!

Liberty, your 1934 yesterday, Fragging is precisely what I should have done to Saddams best buddy.

SPOT GOLD AT $299.70! DOW TANKIN' DOWN 64! GCQ @$301.10!

SPOT GOLD AT $299.70! DOW TANKIN' DOWN 64! GCQ @$301.10! GM STRIKE WILL SHUT DOWN GM!

come to papa gold baby boomers....
clear divergence in Dow/Gold...finally a golden spike has been driven into this greedy BEAST.

I knew it could do it today.
Don't stop now.

I knew it could do it today.
Don't stop now.

My reading of the FWN news article at 07:57:46 yesterday states that the World Gold Council chairman, Donald Morley, told the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council what percentage of gold he felt that they should hold. It does not appear that any Arab source actually made this proposal. This news may be misinterpreted.

Let's see if we can hold price or maybe even gain for the next hour or
so.

Should there be a minimum word count for posts? What is the point of continually posting one-liners echoing spot prices, "rah-rah" phrases, etc. ?

All:

It is a most bizarre day in the gold and silver pits. The floor is eerily quiet and traders can't sell vol fast enough.

You would think with gold up almost $7 and silver up around 17 cents that someone might be getting interested. Instead there is total disdain for the rally.

The gold market seems extremely odd. The big funds have not yet come in to do their short covering, much less switch to the long side, and yet people are happily selling gold calls, driving volatility lower as compared to yesterday. With the Europeans closing shop and heading for the beaches, someone may take a shot at the Comex toward the close. If a number can be posted which causes one of the bigger funds to cover, they may find that they are at the mercy of very few dealers. If these dealers have themselves been writing calls, it could get extremely interesting.

If the gold market is odd, the silver market can only be classified as absurd. As of 15 - 20 minutes ago it was reported to me that the silver traders were sitting down in the pit and kind of preparing for the weekend. The only activity of note in the options arena has been some producer selling of nearby calls.

This has the possiblity of the very, very, strange close.

Gold stock tips. Meet people who call themselves "The ultimate gold nuts"

RJ: Want to apologize for my past attacks on you. They were petulant and spiteful. Your record here is among the best and we can all learn a lot from your posts and weekly Monex write-ups.

CNBC is featuring golF stocks, and golF nuts. Turning up the volume on my hearing aid.

I'm heartened by the comments about the oddity of this recent action ( and accompanying inaction ) . Every time in the past the market has hammered us down. People played the game. Now it seems people are confused or disbelieving regarding the price rise. My hope is that this is symptomatic of a market that has shifted out from under the feet of the players. When they finally figure this out they will ignite the BIG one.

Worth dreaming of anyway.

BTW how is it that price rises when no one is trading??? Or is there trading going on where we can not see it ( public markets ) .

They are just sitting there dead. What in the world is going on? MDG, ASL, doing NOTHING! FDPMX up $.13. Should be up $.40.

Hope you hada good vacation. Looks like you took it at just the right time. Welcome back. Please drop me an e-mail message at STCPA@webtv.net

For a minute there you had me worried. I don't have a proper suit on to appear on the telly ;- )

goldbugs claim they have seen a price rise in gold but according to other markets players it was mass hallucination brought about by a number mitigating factors....keep the faith.

As you are well aware any time there has been a somewhat sustained ralley in PM'S, we will have some one come out and announce that some CB or some other source is selling gold. While this may not be a shock to most of the people at this site, it nevertheless is disturbing. It would lead you to believe that the concerted attacks are coordinated. Gosh, could that be true???? Or how about a couple of weeks ago when Comex silver stocks rose this was touted as the reason silver has fallen, yet you never hear that Comex silver stocks are at what 18 year lows? maybe just my imagination..... Righttttttttttt.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

on gold and 18 cents on silver, the stocks are not moving. Notice NEM and HM are just hanging around as they have been for the past several days. The normal thinking is that the XAU leads the bullion. Steven Kaplan raised some doubts about that scenario last night. Possible wishful thinking. IMHO the goldbug buyers have been so whipped on the last test of the spot $280 level, and a number of stocks made a new low on the last test, that people are looking on in disbelief and refusing to chase the rally. Perhaps they are right and traders in the futures are setting them up for another drop or test of the lows. I hope not, but I suspect that that is a good part of the problem. Anyway, with August gold over $300 and silver looking like the correction is over, I'm not complaining and forever hopeful. If we get a monster close as you alude to, this could be the beginning of something much more than a simple rally.

Its been so long since we saw a Bull everyone has forgoten what he
looks like! Todays last hour will tell the tale ( tail? )
Either gold tanks or stocks have to rise.

I have just a small position in PM funds now, but probably will do some buying if today's rally is not squashed on the close. With XAU/gold ratio now exceedingly depressed, there probably is not much short-term much risk in the stocks even if bullion takes a sharp hit next week.

I have just a small position in PM funds now, but probably will do some buying if today's rally is not squashed on the close. With XAU/gold ratio now exceedingly depressed, there probably is not much short-term much risk in the stocks even if bullion takes a sharp hit next week.

Is it possible that we saw a large short position covering triggered by price at about mid day in London? If so, then "may more shorts cover when their triggers are hit!". Indeedy. A very steep ascent.

One important ( ? ) indicator has been the afternoon goblin, particularly on
Friday afternoons. Now I'm not saying that I think that anyone would neccesarily want to artificially manipulate prices, but the price at the
close on Friday is the one we agonize ( or ecstacize ) over for the whole
weekend. It is probably just coincidece that when the London market had
closed and buyers were at their thinest the prices would for some unknown
reason all head down. Be that as it may, it looks like something different has happened this Friday...

This week has been a very dramatic week. The US made one of it's very
rare appearences in the currency market, and had somewhat of a small
insignificant trivial hardly worth mentioning effect on the markets.

Next week we will begin to hear of the repercussions.

As a counterpoint to your suggestion I would submitt that there should be a limitation of 500 words to prevent the publication of what amounts often to a small novel & a ban on multiple posts, there is much wasted
band spece.

Its been so long since we have seen a Bull that ho one remembers what
he looks like. Either stocks follow gold or gold tanks. Todays close
should tell. I am betting up, just because of the lack of interest

We're already well-known one to the other! {:- ) )

I don't think so. This was far more distributed than just a short covering rally. It affected the yen/dollar, oil, bonds, and more than
just the London gold market.

I sold my long July silver at 5.43 and I'm now net short from 5.43.

I forgot, the stop is at 5.48.

Metals opened this week on a down note, but are closing out the week very strongly. Get out of your Aug gold short before the market closes. Look at the Aug gold daily and weekly charts at:
http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/livechart?symbols=gcq8>http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/livechart?symbols=gcq8 http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/livechart?symbols=gcq8
There is a clear double bottom at the 285 area. $320 next week is a possibility. If you must short gold, wait for the $315-320 area. Don't want to see you suffer, man. Namast'e !

Fox-Man

What has changed in the fundamentals is the decision to lower the dollars value vs the world currencys. Your smart and have real money so where do you protect the value with out the chance of picking the wrong currency to hide in. Gold!!!!

There seems to be some concern today over the fact that gold stocks are not performing during today's gold rally. My guess is this is because of the fact that people are buying the physical stuff. Especially those buyers outside of the US. Europeans and Asians have seen much more in the way of difficult times and they know the value of physical gold and silver. There are even those Americans who remember or are starting to figure it out.

People are becoming very wary of paper of any kind. Perhaps this weeks rally is a sign that some people are starting to wake up and take notice. They are starting to realize that all that paper is nothing more than paper. What is the logical step if you discover your paper could be worthless? You turn it into something that has value everywhere in the world. IMHO don't look to the action in the exchange pits, look to the action at your local bullion dealer to get a better feel for where gold is going.

late next week. I sell software to these guys, or try to, anyway. It's harder when I start running into budget freezes at companies that do Asia business. Also, my wife's shipping forwarding biz is booming on the import side, way off on the export side. She told me last night volume is up but $/lb and $/cu. ft. is dropping. Her company is closing its S. Korea office because biz has dropped from 8 containers last year to zero this year. Just a couple of personal data points to add to the din of public info on the slowdown.
-EJ

and make huge money...and you will be able to turn the gain into metal.
bbl

Namaste'

Boggles the mind, yes. Had I not printed-out the data, I could easily convince myself I was deslusional. I am told that these strange 'cross-over-thru-' do occur, and thru firewalls. This is NOT reassuring news! Thanks for sharing your experience. {;- )

i think so ...dollar is devaluing ...only one currency left, commodities.

mining companies are up to their neck in gold paper ...but won't kick in until gold is well on it's way to US$400....legacy of futures markets...this is like no other gold bull ever.

I agree, except the maximum lenght should be about 500 words and generally gold related, except for an occasional joke.
If one can't get a point over with less than 350 words I try not to read it.
Then there are always url's that can reinforce or negate ones opinions.

With the dollar moving so much again the Yen ahead of the G-7 meeting it almost seems like buy the rummer sell the news type of event. I would wait until monday to get really bullish on Gold. If the dollar starts up again after the fact/news then gold may atleast fill in some gaps it has made.

If the dollar opens even weaker on monday then all this complacancy could really send gold UP.

Fri
Jun
19
TVX
TVX Gold Inc coverage initiated by Goldman Sachs
Fri
Jun
19
TVX
RESEARCH ALERT - Goldman starts TVX Gold

HighRise

and I don't doubt that the European CBs would protect their cross rates with JY, but also believe that they have to be keenly aware of the bigger picture. The Euro banks, especially German have huge loans in SEAia, which, although the chances of collecting more than a small % of them are small, if things deteriorate much more they will have to face writing them all off.

.

The complacency out there is perfect for a big move. Europeans are sellers of the gold stocks, there are few U.S. buyers, and no one still cares. And look at the week we have had. In general the gold shares are comotose.
What a set up. We keep hearing over and over that some hedge funds have started to cover, but most have not. Certainly, the computer funds are covering. As I write this, all recent shorts are in the losing column.
No change in our view that we have been expounding on all week. A big move is underway. ( No jinx - I am knocking on wood )
Thought you might like to know that Frank Veneroso is meeting with some of the top officials at the Banque de France next week to discuss the gold market and our 1998 Gold Book Annual, out soon.
This indicates to us their extreme interest in gold or he never could have got such a high level meeting.
Bill

One of the main reasons IMO, is that the "clever" MF Mgrs have sold them off because of end of Q window dressing. Would'nt it be great if the silly as*holes were forced to buy them back at much higher prices?

Griffon5--you're right if POG gets too exuberant, we can expect some negative announcements from the CBs, probably the Swiss.

USA Today showing $301.30, up $6.70.

CONSIDER: BIS Statutes, Chapter III, "Powers of the Bank

Art. 22. Any of the operations which the Bank is authorised to carry out with central banks under the preceding Article may be carried out with banks, bankers, corporations or individuals of any country provided that the central bank of that country does not object.
FURTHER:
Art. 20. The operations of the Bank for its own account shall only be carried out in currencies which in the opinion of the Board satisy the practical requirements of the gold or gold exchange standard.

As, for example, the settlement currency for the telecoms, who might be
buying gold? {:- ) )

I appreciate the content of your post. Perhaps there just have been too many cries of "Wolf!" and people are weary of false starts, followed by retracements back down. I know I am. I think everybody is in a state of ennui. vis-a-vis the PM's. Hard to believe that of the traders in the pits, though. Not if there is money to be made. Sometimes, though, significant moves take place from inauspicious beginnings, unheralded, and recognized only in retrospect. Let us hope.

Crystal Ball - Thanks for the advise. I stayed short, I can bail Sunday night if need be. Spot Gold would have to close higher then 305 on the weekly before I'd start looking at the long side. This gold rally is no more then a retest of 300 and resistance. Silver is really disappointing, hasn't come near my objectives. I just reversed all my longs from 5.10. I'm looking for a down week in metals next week.

For James ..
We'll see .. the cross rate bands
say 133 ish is as low as the yen will
go .. if thats right .. them we look
at the gold chart in yen .. where
gold continues to FALL.. as does
Platinum.

For APH
You play silver like a piano..
If you can catch cheesehead at
MAXIMUM FRENZY.. that the perfect
short entry point.

Perhaps a reasonable, PLAUSIBLE occurence in a new reserve currency/tri-polar currency/yen-linked-to-GF world?
BIS client/conferences, BIS office in Hong Kong foreshadow something
swinging in the wind...{:- ) )

Gold up, Kitco down or at least slow ... XAU barely moves . . looks like it was the short covering of one player that caused all the fireworks . . and now new that Birshire Hathaway will merge with General Re . . I guess we wait till Monday to see if there is any follow through . . very strange day...r

They just couldn't manage to keep it down to double digits!

Perhaps a reasonable, plausible occurrence in a new reserve currency/tri-polar currency/yen-linked-to-GF world?
BIS asks Japan for purchase of 8,000 add'l shares; BIS/Japan client/conferences; BIS office in Hong Kong...
something is being strung-up to turn slowly in the wind
One prudently suggests it is NOT gold! {:- )

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/ASECTION/t000057121.1.html

See this LA Times analysis:

China Cashes In On Its Stance in Currency Crisis

Gold up 6.70

XAU up .67%

It's suppOSED TO BE UP 6.7%

HOW ABOUT 67%?*^&%$!@^&*%$!@#^&*!@%#

Sorry. I lost my temper.

It was Yourdon's suggestion to businesses, not mine. I posted his commentary.

As far as BIG batteries, I recently saw an ad for submarine batteries ( 2 volt cells ) which weighed 4000# and could supply the average home for about a month before recharging needed. I truly NEED a few of these but can't figure out how to get them down the basement steps.

It always seems that the best deals are just beyond our finger tips!

Hate it when you beg like that. Enough grovelling. In a few minutes Donald will appear to mark the score. Awa-y.

The reason for a sell off in volatility on such a move might be that as mining companies sell out of the money calls on PMs to hedge future production, the market makers are getting longer and longer volatility ( vega ) as the spot moves up.
From a market making stanpoint , this is not good on a friday as you will pay a lot of time decay over the week end. Hence the sell off in vols.
The name of the game is to arb market maker psychology ( implied volatility ) with historical volatility.
As long as we stay in the range , implied vols will have a hard time on the upside.

Yen surges, breaks through 134 to the dollar
LONDON, June 19 ( AFP ) - The yen surged on Friday on the London
forex market, breaking down through 134 to the dollar after having
left 136 and then 135 behind in morning trading.
The dollar was trading at 1430 GMT at 133.77 yen against 137.06
at 0500 GMT in tokyo and 137.72 Thursday evening in London.
Following central bank intervention on Wednesday, the yen is
further supported by reports on talks in Japan held by US deputy
treasury secretary Lawrence Summers a day ahead of a G7 meeting of
deputy finance ministers in Tokyo.
The dollar was also down against other major currencies,
changing hands at 1.7830 marks against 1.7931 in mid-session and
1.7934 Thursday evening.

Mexican dilemma: Should taxpayers pay bankers' giant debt?
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0619/i_ap_0619_53.sml

SDRer these may interest you - re:
Islamic banking & commerce:
http://www.uio.no/~stvhoy11/islbank.html
GCC
http://www.arab.net/kuwait/business/kt_gcclaws.html

August gold closed at 300.80 July silver at 5.352.

Monex spot is at 299 even on the gold, 293 even on palladium, 364 even on platinum, and 5.36 on silver.

Sorry about the delay. Couldn't get into Kitco earlier.

gold lease rates MOVED NOT AT ALL. They are stuck at 1.45.
I tend to look at the lease rates as the real price
indicators. Gold is still cheap, and will be until
the lease rates exceed the T-Bill rate. My apologies
for continuing to harp on this, but the lease rates
show the CBs want the POG DOWN, probably below $300.

I expect a bearish announcement or two on Monday.
Let me see,..... we haven't heard from the Dutch
lately, or Portuagal. Let me predict an announcement
of a 'sale' from the CBs of one of these institutions.

Perhaps it will be another fraudulent gold 'discovery'
that will flood the world supply, or a rehash of the
pitfalls exposed in BRE-X. I know! The United States will
announce that it intends to sell gold! I expect something
negative on Monday or Tuesday. The CBs will not let
the POG rise. IMHO.

I have found multiple Posts occur when a prompt response is not forthcoming that your comment has been posted. So the poster clicks the button again - nothing happens {he or she thinks} so they hit the button again and again. GIVE IT A FEW MINUTES! It may take several minutes when the Kitco server is getting swamped. Multiple posts just swamp it even more. I have tried to stay off during those time. I cut my updates of the posted comments to a minimum and save my non-urgent comments for later in the evening.

from 'The Sydney Morning Herald':
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/20/world/index.html

If there is a concerted plan to keep the POG down ( very likely ) I disagree on the fact that CBs want it below average production costs unless it is a very short dated plan.
For the POG to remain at bargain levels it has to be on an attractive selling level for the mining sector otherwise supply will dry up and the POG will skyrocket.
Better keep the POG around 350 forever than below 300 for 2 years and 600 then in the ensueing rally.
The CBs are victim of their own success and soon will be scared.

Many in India believe militant separatists in Kashmir are behind
the slaughter, and that they are funded/supported from Pakistan.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_115000/115976.stm

298.75. As reported by Bloomberg TV.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/20/world/index.html

More must reading for the hard-working analyst. Most of the impact of this thing is still in the pipeline.

http://www.wsws.org/news/1998/jun1998/econ-j19.shtml

( say below $320 ) for about 8 months. This duration of price stress
has just now begun to affect production cutbacks ( to 1% growth from
over 3% projected last year ) Lease rates still indicate that
the negative tirade will continue. My fear is that they intend
to stretch the control until beginning 1999 and the intro of
the EURO. If they try this, there are going to be failed
mines, political instability ( South Africa ) and a gold
bull which will be just as manic, and damaging as the DOW.
I really hate bankers! Oh yes, IMHO.

Was not going to post but your comment jogged me bought Krug@s & maple leafe to day during disscussion I was told that the dealer was low on lots of coins and would have to get from Europe or else where . hopefully people are buying physical. I suppose backwardation will come later

Go Gold

cpo

Very strange day. Gold soars, but gold stocks barely move. Dow down 100, bonds strong. Donald can you tell uis when is the last time that the gold/xau ratio was lower than today's close?

With today's rally probably reflecting short covering, a sharp drop in bullion early next week looks like a good bet. But I would be surprised if gold stocks went down much; they might even rally if the bullion hit is not too severe.

Rhody; Thanks for keeping us up to date on the still low gold lease rates1 Can you tell us what gold lease rates did during the 1993 gold bull? That should give us a good idea if much higher lease rates are really required for a big upmove in POG.

What's wrong with this picture?

August gold ( GCQ8 ) up 1.93% today.

XAU index up 0.67% today.

HUI index ( unhedged producers! ) up 1.25% today.

I think it was,
XAU +7%
Gold +2%

Quit your complaining.

This isn't bad for one day. Last night we were talking about 50% increase in 2 years, that would be about 2% / month, we got 2% back in one day.

And if you look at the week it appears even better.

Will it hold? We will see, but I think it will, inflation is here in many things now.

HighRise

A few weeks ago on this forum I predicted a financial panic which in my opinion has begun. I expect a very large DOW decline over the next 7 weeks Since many of the gold shares are in the SPX , Value Line and Index funds, I suspect gold shares will be sold with all other shares for the following reasons:
1. Heavy margin liquidation on the NYSE.
2. Heavy mutual funds liquidation to raise cash for end of the quarter.
Gold mutual funds have been selling gold shares to meet redemptions.
3. So many gold investors have been burned recently and will sell on every uptick.
4. Downgrades by brokerage firms.
However, I do expect the POG to rise slowly and the bottom line for many producing gold minng companies to improve. Once the crash is over, gold mining shares will be rocketing upward.
5. The same mutual funds that sold their mining shares will be buying them again at much higher prices.
6. I suspect that by late Aug ,98 the gold shares will begin a real move
progressing well over the next few years.
Good luck, God bless.

Looks like I agree with you!

HighRise

Sorry, but todays action in gold stocks was the pits! No pun intended. This is either a fake-out move in gold or something related to the triple witch. Perhaps agent Fox Mulder and Scully can get an X-Files investigation going here.....

Off to dinner. Hopefully, that will be less bizzar than todays market action and easier to digest.....

One last thing.........

The last time I checked ( some time ago ) the following gold/metal stocks were in the S&P-500;

AR ABX BMG CYM EC ECO FCX HM N NEM.

CHOP-ASAKI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

has gold started the bull run? who cares...be one of the buy-on-the-dip-for-lunch-bunch...mmmmm...mmmmmmm...good......

look at this beauty...

http://www.bmiquotes.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?source=core/bmi

my grains are smokin!!! bought 3 more dec corn @ 262.5 today....have 2 beans.....the grain train has left the station....ALLABOARD...

LIMIT MOVES IN CORN ARE IMMINENT!!!!! the texas corn crop is absolutely scorched......the heat is moving into the plains next.......

if the corn crop does not receive rain in the next 2 weeks....it will be

history!! beans are next in line...........ALLABOARD!

who has ridden the limb of life and sent the smoke-signals-of-truth about the record breaking heat and up-coming diaspora in grains???

$1000K in '98.......woooooo..wooooooo..wooooooooooooooooooo

time is short for the grain train....

this post will probably post a zillion times......been a strange day..

cherokee!; ) ..back.from.the.alamo.city....looking-for-the-fruited-plain..

For James
So far so good .. yen went to 134 and
then bounced back up to 137. I think it
reached bottom of european currency
cross rate limits .. believe 134 is as low
as it will go.. Rubin or no rubin.
German loans are a factor .. but the placement
of their cross rate with the yen can only
accomodate their bankers so far.. Now the
yen can continue a stately decline .. until
the next Rubin hiccup which will probably be
less effective.. onward toward the abyss.

For rhody ..
Political instability in RSA may come ..
who knows .. BUT .. a low gold price wont
have ANYTHING to do with it .. Gold Mining
has become a smaller and smaller employer ..
despite all the noise. Plus their costs are
becoming so low that its starting to become
embarrasing.

For APH ..
Try to time short entry just as cheesehead
approaches orgasmic rapture.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.08. A year ago the ratio was 22.86. The 144 day moving average is 28.60

The Dow/Gold Ratio has dropped 5.92% this week. Of that total, 3.16% was the action today. Adjusted for pre-1933 dollars the Dow is 601.08 tonight.

Yomiuri Shimbun
Japan supports an initiative by Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to visit New Delhi and Islamabad to help defuse tensions over nuclear weapons testing by Indian and Pakistan, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi told Bangladeshi Ambassador to Japan Rashed Ahmed last week. Hasina will attempt to facilitate dialogue between the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers. Ahmed visited Obuchi on June 9 to brief him on the initiative.

Obuchi responded positively to A CALL BY AHMED FOR JAPAN TO PLAY A GREATER DIPLOMATIC ROLE IN SOUTH ASIA, and to give more support to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to facilitate peace and stability in the region.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/0620in17.htm

Ethiopian envoy: Japan important to peace agreement
Ethiopia's ambassador to Japan on Friday said he has high expectations for the government to mediate in the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. In an interview with the Daily Yomiuri at the Ethiopian Embassy in Tokyo, Mahdi Ahmed Gadid emphasized the importance of the government's role in the peace negotiations, saying that Japan should persuade the Eritrean government to accept the proposals suggested by the United States and Rwanda and endorsed by the Organization of African Unity. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/0620po15.htm

MM@thanks.for.the.urls

billd--

we had a +9$ rise in pog this year...

a lot more big moves are coming....options...play safe....
you can touch the big boys, but they cannot touch you.......

who planned ahead and bought their grain calls?? remember the plan??
stalk the beast.......loose the arrow......eviscerate the carcass
as the carcass it is.......this is an aside for what i have planned
for the sellers of gold......my long term options plan will harvest
the green from the sellers of the gold.......heeeee..heeeeee...heeeeee

golden-ears-burnt-by-SOL----------help.generate.green.for.gold.....yar!!

cherokee!; ) .....looking.back.to.see.forward.....chop-saki...........

June 19, 1998

Agency Waits To Fix Computer Bug

Filed at 5:46 p.m. EDT

By The Associated Press

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry will wait until 2000 to fix any computer glitches arising from the Millennium Bug, a spokesman said Friday.

``We don't have any problems yet,'' spokesman Vladislav Petrov told The Associated Press. ``We'll deal with the problem in the year 2000.''

The Millennium Bug is a worldwide threat because many computers -- originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year -- may be unable to distinguish between the years 2000 and 1900 -- since their codes represent those years as simply 00.

Computer experts warn that on Jan 1, 2000, banking systems may fail, air traffic controls could stop working -- and nuclear reactors might melt down if the problem in their computer systems is not fixed.

On May 21, Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko ordered the country's computer experts to develop ways to resolve the 2000 problem by the end of this year, but it is commonly acknowledged that Russia is far behind its western counterparts in fixing the glitch.

Many experts believe that if major government institutions and large companies haven't started fixing the problem, they're already too late. A recent study revealed that the U.S. Defense Department will complete all its necessary overhauls by 2012 at the pace it's going now.

I have tried twice to email you- no luck. Mine is cdevoto@abts.net Please send me yours. Thanx, Charlie

XAU/Spot Ratio = .232. A year ago the ratio was .292. The 144 day moving average is .255. My database contains 12 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. The ranking tonight is #4. The reading yesterday was #4 but has been bumped down to #5. This is the best ranking in 6 years although it should be noted that the 1992 rankings, preparing for the 1993 rally, were of superior quality. The #1 ranking was on April 24, 1986, with a gold price of $345.10, an XAU of 69.70, producing a XAU/AU ratio of .202

June 19, 1998

Kosovo Leader Seeks NATO Help

Filed at 4:55 p.m. EDT

By The Associated Press

PRISTINA, Yugoslavia ( AP ) -- The top political leader of Kosovo's ethnic Albanians appealed Friday for direct NATO intervention in the province, fearing that Serbian forces are readying new attacks on his people.

``NATO should undertake all possible measures to prevent further massacres and protect the people of Kosovo,'' Ibrahim Rugova told a news conference in Pristina, the capital of the southern Serbian province. Ethnic Albanians outnumber Serbs in Kosovo 9-to-1.

Ignoring NATO's show of force in the skies over the Balkans on Monday, Serbian leaders have been reinforcing their army and special police forces in the province, estimated by NATO sources at 45,000 to 50,000.

Serb forces have sealed the border with Albania -- cutting off an escape route for refugees -- while reportedly continuing to attack border villages they claim are havens for the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army.

Convoys of armored vehicles have also been seen taking positions along a main north-south artery between Pristina and Prizren, near the border with Macedonia.

The ethnic Albanians' Kosovo Information Center, close to Rugova, said Serb forces attacked nine villages Friday. The center also reported three more dead in western Kosovo.

Meanwhile, the Kosovo Liberation Army said Friday its attacks will continue and warned the international community to ``move on from words to deeds'' in pressuring Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to stop the Serb attacks.

The militants control a large part of western Kosovo. They have dismissed Rugova's efforts to find a peaceful solution.

The NATO flights over Albania and Macedonia this week were intended to prod Serbia to scale down its forces in Kosovo so that negotiations could resume.

The Serbian government insists its deployment is legitimate to combat the separatists.

``All international pressures on Serbia ( to withdraw ) ... are a direct help to separatists,'' Foreign Minister Zivadin Jovanovic was quoted as saying Friday by the official Tanjug news agency.

More than 300 people have died in clashes between Serb forces and separatist fighters in Kosovo since Serb authorities began a crackdown Feb. 28. Tens of thousands of ethnic Albanians have been driven from their homes.

Friday June 19, 10:21 am Eastern Time

RESEARCH ALERT - Goldman starts TVX Gold

NEW YORK, June 19 ( Reuters ) - Goldman Sachs said Friday it started coverage of TVX Gold Inc. with a market
perform rating.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/research_a_12.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/98/06/19/u.html#i?TVX

http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=^XAU+ASA+ABX+BMG+BGO+ECO+HL+HM+NEM+PGU+PDG+RYO+TVX+^HUI+AEM+CDE+FCX+GLG+KGC+WMC&detailed=f

It was even better while Gold was still open
XAU day
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1d

XAU year
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1y

CRB
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^CRB&d=1d

Early Close see Johannesburg graph at site below. They stated to run with Gold
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=HGMCY%2BRANGY%2BDROOY%2BWDEPY&d=v1

Take out ( en ) in golden
http://www.golden-eagle.com/intra-day.html
click on graphs for enlargments.

Van Eck Hard assets includes oil
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/G/GHAAX.html
Look at the S&P roll over ready to crash.

Van Eck Gold Fund
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/mf/G/GRFRX.html

HighRise

Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.28. A year ago the ratio was 71.62. The 144 day moving average is 50.17.

I just found out that large Japanese concerns facing cash shortages ) are borrowing money from large American and European banks because their own banks would no longer provide them with lines of credit. No wonder loan demand in the US has been rising rapidly. Apparently the western banks have more confidence in the Japanese economy than the Japanese do.

Spot gold $299.92, spot silver $5.68, XAU 80.52

There were only two times in 1998 that the XAU/Spot ratio was lower than today. January 9th we had .229 and on January 12th .222

The Yen sold off alot after the COMEX Gold close.

The sept Yen was trading at 7536 at the 2:30 NY close
By 3:00 when the Yen day session closed it was at 7441
Looking at the after hours market they show it at 7363 right now.

http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0619/i_ap_0619_76.sml

SDRer@you're.welcome hope they were useful : )

...or the Japanese banks know something the US and European banks don't know...
-EJ

again, i ask.............who is waiting to get on board??
the kicker-----el nino has arrived and departed.....
choas and flux have JUST entered into the food fray.....
any-thing that grows, can bet against growing normally
this year....

feast your eyes on seasonal opportunity which depends upon
the good graces of mother nature to provide a bountiful
harvest....look at the last year....the 2'nd largest harvest
ever.....the best weather ever for our grain belt.....

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...' sir isaac

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha63.gif

who is going to bet against physics and the laws of nature???

who is going to step-up to the plate and swing the hell out
of the bat of life?? the crack and thunder of air crashing as my bat
swings is over-come only by the bellows of the generator on the
smoke-signal-mobile.......life is measured in nano-seconds.....let
not your seconds escape you....awaken...carbo-earth-anouts...we
are at a cusp in the history of the 10k cycle..the time for action is
now...the blow comes....jeff beck...'blow by blow' best damned instrumental ever.........

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the shoulders of giants...' ...sir isaac newton......

cherokee!;..riding.the.slip-stream.of.the.mind....and.dotssmb......

I'm Back....JTF and others....it has been months since my observance of Kitco debate, but today is indeed another day to celebrate. As a goldbug I feel like I just awoke from a long sleep.

Undoubtedly the bullish signal from Europe to back the Euro with 10-15% helped gold today or perhaps it was Robert Pringle's article in the Financial Post out of Toronto that raised some attention that gold may not be dead and that the US dollar may have a legitimate competitor, gold.

In a world where perceptions are carefully managed and consent manufactured, one must really question the timing of those who seek now to raise the profile of gold while at the same time a soft landing is orchestrated for our once belove fiat currencies and once-mighty Aisan miracle economies. Oh how times change in such short order. The papers are now full of doom and gloom about Asia where once such article rarely if ever appeared in the back pages of WSJ, NYT or G&M. Kitcoites can smile that they foretold much of what is now mainstream more than one year ago.

If only ANOTHER came back to share with us some insights into the powers that lie behind the veil, like some Wizard of Oz. I have come to appreciate that those Wizards will remain hidden weaving stories and manipulating perceptions so that truth becomes difficult to discern. Or perhaps I offend some ears by mentioning the name ANOTHER....he was, in my opinion, wiser than many would rightly acknowledge...but then again, it has always been difficult to be a prophet in your own land!

As some have noted, in the end, however, mathematics will foreclose on the musical debt chairs game of those who seek to build a global union of financial systems and a world monetary policy structure. In my estimation even if they succeed, their time and dominion will be short lived and in the end the real physical assets of this world will again be the true basis of value, something the bankers of this world have lost touch with. In the end, nature will foreclose on their illusionary game of money creation out of thin air ( I now believe that indeed, money does grow on trees and comes out of thin air, if one truly understands how money is created ) . In the mean time there is little doubt that the spin doctors will dominate and continue to create the illusion that physical scarcity of such things as gold and silver and other resources are mere illusions which fiat currencies can always overcome their limitations.

And so we continue to wait.....it is hard being a gold bug when you believe that the world is truly out of touch and step with reality, and the heard thunders along oblvious to truth and too numb to care.

Cheers!

Markus

Weather leads grains up, dollar supports gold
http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Full_Stories.html?Button=Get+Story&headline=3152107

...Japan Inc. was to rule the next century?

...The Soviet Evil Empire was THE threat to the Western World?

...oil drove inflation?

...equities defined value in world markets?

...there was peace among ancient enemies?

...Gold was Dead?

Watch The Man Behind the Curtain.

-EJ

crude oil.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

where, oh where is black gold going???

to the moon....my dec crude calls costing $190 each
with strikes from 25 to 17 are going to pay off big
time......do you have yours????

Gresham's Law?
Probabilities of borrowing in the weak currency to repay in the
currency that will strengthen? Low/moderate/high probability?

Turkey sends warplanes to
Cyprus

TURKEY has appealed to Britain, as a
guarantor of Cypriot independence, to
intervene to defuse rising military tension
over the island.

Mesut Yilmaz, the Turkish Prime Minister,
said that he would call on Britain to fulfil the
responsibility taken on at the time of Cypriot
independence in 1960, as Turkey sent F16
fighter aircraft to the island.

Ankara has not yet formally approached
Britain over Cyprus, but the Foreign Office
said yesterday that it was in touch with all
sides to try to ease tension and promote an
intercommunal settlement. Turkey intensified
the mounting crisis by sending six F16 planes
to the Turkish north of the island. The move
was in response to the four F16s and C130
transport planes sent by Athens to Baf
airbase in the south earlier in the week.

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER

World Data Center A for Seismology

The following is from the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: preliminary hypocenter for earthquake of 1998 jun 18, ASCENSION ISLAND REGION, about 260 miles ( 420 km ) S of Ascension Island: latitude 11.7 degrees south longitude 13.9 degrees west origin time 04:17 54.6 utc depth shallow, magnitude 6.0

--------------

preliminary hypocenter for earthquake of 1998 jun 17, BANDA SEA, about 155 miles ( 250 km ) NNW of Saumlaki, Tanimbar Isl, Indon.: latitude 6.0 degrees south longitude 130.2 degrees east origin time 18:48 57.8 utc depth 100, magnitude 5.5

The question is when will POPO go?

To: Alan Whirlwind ( 1171 )
From: Alan Whirlwind Wednesday, Jun 17 1998 12:45PM ET
Reply # of 1178
Pinky's Tailing Box, in conjunction with At a Bottom Now for Gold,
presents...

"Oro" is Spanish for Gold, OR The Avoirdupois of Oz...

I bought 5000 shares of Zappa at .50 a share--did I ever get bit by your
dog. This court injunction gives me the right to the warrants you put up
as collateral.

I'm sorry Dorassay, Oro will have to go or the Central Bank of Kansas
will foreclose on the farm.

Uncle Spendfree, a whirlwind is coming!

You mean that clown from the At a Bottom now for Gold travelling show is
here?

No, it's just a level F-4 cyclone.

Quick, get the cattle out of the barn!

Don't have to, Hillary took delivery on them this morning.

Where's Dorassay?

Too late--we must take shelter.
#
Uncle Spendfree, Aunt Gem, where are you? Oh-h-h! Ah-h-h!
#
Uh-h-h-h...what? Where are we Oro? Why look, it's a stock market bubble!

I'm Gwendolyn, the good witch of the North. You dropped your house on
the YK2 Glitch of the West. Here, take her silver slippers. Beware her
sister, the Nikkei'd witch of the East.

POOF! And here I am--give me my sister's slippers!

Don't give up your silver--it must be very valuable or Buffett wouldn't
want it so badly. Begone Nikkei before you tank like your sister.

Very well, but I'll be back. POOF!

Good witch, I only want to return to Kansas with Oro.

Then follow the yellow brick road to Oz.

But I'm too lazy to walk that far.

Then follow the goldbrick road.
#
The road forks here, Oro. In which way should we invest?

Try money market funds. No, precious metals.

Who said that?

I did, I'm Scared Dough.

I didn't know money could talk. But why aren't you recommending Mutual
funds or stocks on the S&P?

Because I haven't got a brain. I wouldn't even make a good bear--see all
those stock market birds in my field eating their share of my corn?
They're not afraid at all.

Why, if we had bearish Scared dough's like you back home, Kansas wheat
would be limit down. I'm going to Oz to find a stock market wizard who
can get me back to Kansas. I'm sure he can help you with a brain.
#
Why, Scared Dough, look--it's a tin man!

O-h-h-h, thank you for lubricating me. I got caught out in a storm and
rusted.

But why weren't you holding any oil?

I dumped all my oil stocks when Elaine Garzarelli gave her big sell
signal.

Where are you invested now?

In CD's.

But why doesn't your portfolio consist of 50% US equities, 25% foreign
equities and 25% high grade government and or municipal bonds, as Bob
Brinker has recommended, dollar cost averaging into a current market
surfeit with rich valuations and high PE ratios?

Because I haven't got the heart to buy and hold stocks.

We're going to see the stock market Wizard of Oz. Maybe he can get you a
heart.
#
Oh my, this forest is thick and the investment outlook is dark. There
aren't any wild animals, are there?

Just hurt Asian Tigers and bears.

Hurt Asian Tigers and bears, oh my! Hurt Asian Tigers and bears, oh my!

R-O-A-R-!!!!!!

You leave my dog Oro alone, you big coward!

You're right, gold sure has been a dog...er...I mean I sure am a coward.
I bought a hundred shares of Intel and Microsoft and couldn't sleep for
weeks so I went into cash.

But why didn't you buy a five star rated mutual or index fund or at
least some Ginnie Maes?

Because because I haven't got the courage.

We're going to see the stock market Wizard of Oz, perhaps he can give
you some courage.

I see you've found some friends to help you? Just as well, ha ha ha ha
ha ha!!!

Who's she?

The Nikkei'd witch of the East. She wants my silver slippers.

Well, Mr. Tin Man, I think I'll make you into a piggybank and plink you
full of Susan B. Anthony dollars. And you Mr. Lion, I think I'll make
you Governor of Arkansas. And as for you, Scared Dough, have any money
to burn? Have a little fire!!!

Help Dorassay! I'm stuffed with cash!

Go away you mean old witch!

I'll get you, my pretty, and the little POG too! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
POOF!
#
There it is! The Emerald City! Wow, look at all these beautiful poppies.
I'm sleepy.

I'm roaring for a few winks myself.

Boo hoo, we were so close.

Stop crying--you'll rust.

Wait--it's snowing!

Roar, snore--huh? Unusual weather were having.

Must be El Nino.
#
Bring me the broomstick of the Nikkei'd Witch of the East and I shall
grant your requests. The Great and powerful Avoirdupois of Oz has
spoken.
#
Run! We're being attacked by the flying five dogs of the Dow!

Oh no--we're short Dorassay.
#
Give me your slippers now or Oro dies!

But the NY Times just published an article that gold was already dead as
an investment.

A-a-a-h-h!!! I should have known that an innocent girl from Kansas
bullish on the stock market would not have any silver to give me.

Run, Oro, run!

Your little spot won't make it past $315 an oz. And as for you little
girl, when the sand runs through the hourglass, the stock market will
crash!
#
Look, it's Oro. He's going to take us to Dorassay.
#
We got into the castle--now what?

I hear Dorassay crying--use your ax!

CHOP CHOP CHOP.

On the door stupid, not on the CEO of Sunbeam.

Quick Dorassay, come with us.

Where do we go?

Up here!

We're cornered.

Who'll be first? How about a little more fire for Scared Dough?

A-a-a-h-h-h! I'm burning!

S-P-L-A-S-H!

Dorassay--the Nikkei just got splashed!

I'm melting...

Wow. Nikkei'd lost her shirt.

Buy US stocks and bonds instead,
the Nikkei'd witch of the East is dead...

#

From the Tailing Box...

Dear Whirlwind:

Hi. I'm Dorothy Gale from Kansas. What's your angle on Kansas City
wheat? --D.G.

Dear Dorothy:

Hi, I'm Alan Gust from Wisconsin. Try milk futures instead. --Whirlwind

Dear Whirlwind:

I know very well what a clutz you are with investments, so when you
bought Zappa me and my dog shorted it all the way down to fifteen cents
and made a killing. I Guess it takes a little longer for boys, huh?
--Your Pen Pal, Calamity

Dear Calamity:

http://www.westol.com/~wizardoz/Dog.wav --Whirlwind

Have any questions on PMs? E-mail the Whirlwind at
whirlwindbuyszappa@mindless.com

Book Review: Chinese Immigrants and
American Labor

When U.S. President Jimmy Carter met with Deng Xiaoping in 1979, he
reminded the Chinese leader that U.S. law forbade granting
Most-Favored Nation status to any country that did not embrace
free-market principles and prevented its citizens from emigrating freely.
Deng's response: "How many millions of Chinese does the United States
want?" Asiaweek )

Indian Nuke Arsenal in the Same League as Chinese: Jane's
India's potential nuclear arsenal is bigger than Britain's and in the same league as the French and Chinese, Jane's Intelligence Review has
reported. ( The Times of India )
http://www.insidechina.com/china/webnews/cwebnews.html

JP@ran/run.that.by 'Verb-tensity' a result of cybertime relativity no doubt...{:- )

So good to see you again. Who will bet against the laws of nature? Not I, Cherokee, not I. Nor should you, my friend. Crude will be put low by a Saturn opposition to NYSE Neptune until the final grinding low in January '99. THEN you may proceed with profits beyond description.

Don't know if this has been posted before, but someone in comp.software.year-2000 described this site as the best Y2K site on the web: http://www.garynorth.com/ . Also see http://www.waltonfeed.com .

Thank you Mike and Gusto Oro...for the reminder that in the end those commodities that are scarce will be those that the masses will clamour and do battle over.

Just a did bit for those interested in oil and gas. I have just read a remarkable piece of analysis that projects Canada's natural gas reserve ( proven plus undiscovered potential ) to be exhausted as early as 2018, based on current projections of increased production and export to the US to help the US achieve its Kyoto climate change targets while converting from coal-fired plants. I have also done preliminary estimates of the remaining reservve life of Alberta's oil and gas which show that conventional crude oil will run out in less than 7 years, assuming 1996 levels of production and no new discoveries...even assuming the histoircal rates of replacement ( which lag production significantly ) at best we have 12 years left....the oilsand however amount to some 300 billion barrels rivaling the Saudi pool.

Ironically, much of this resource scarcity truth rarely sees the light of our newspapers, and even if they were revealed, many would claim the "Club of Rome" argument, that ya ya that was then and this is now, except, I honestly believe that now is different.

Having said this, I believe resource scarcity is real and will begin to prove itself in soaring energy, gold and silver prices when the veil is broken on the Wizards of Oz

Markus

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=n/ap/980618/financial/stories/business_mirror_1.html

Bravo!
-EJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/imf_says_b_1.html

not wrong.
-EJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980619/commoditie_2.html

On the McNeil Newshour tonite, it was reported that some Russian General said that if NATO attacks Kosovo without UN approval...A NEW COLD WAR will develop....huh...and with Russia needing 28+ Billion USD for a bailout ...huh ...

A beautiful piece.

Mass expression of mother transference?
-EJ

It is not Gold that goes up, it is dollar, that goes down against most of currencies. Naturally, dollar price of Gold goes up, when dollar goes down. Wait for tomorrows G-7 meeting results. It will define - may be - where currencies will go

http://www.bfanet.co.za/cgi-bin/bfaweb.exe/bfamemo?file=reps&page=RNG

Making my way back to par on this investment makes me happy. Rightious man! Dig it! Cool... YYEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! Pleasant..Yes old boy stiff upper lip... Quite you know.

Off playing golf all day and gold goes up instead of down! Who here is responsible? I want names and addresses.

We will see if a break above spot $305 appears. We watch this new gold market together. Yes?

Really up or really down...soon. F* mozel ???? Before July.

Tom

Interesting post by Kaplan tonight regarding Homestake/Plutonic closing out forward sales. This kind of activity should at least provide a 'floor' for the price of gold whenever it approaches production costs. If more producers follow suit this can only help gold advance as short positions are unwound. This would also allow some producers to 'cash in' on their outstanding shorts in the near term while at the same time earn profits on their new unhedged production if/when gold rises.

Donald; Thanks for the info! Gold stocks were great buys on those days in January when XAU/spot ratio was even lower than today. I did a little PM fund buying today, but still have just 6% of my assets there.

Interesting that bonds and gold both advanced today. Most unusual.

Project Activities
Loulo - Western Mali
A decision was taken by the Somilo board to proceed with the Loulo project to feasibility study stage as a Heap Leach Project. Exploration has focused on the definition of additional oxide resources to augment the existing reserve of 4.6 Mt @ 3.6 g/t. Results to date have confirmed the discovery of a new mineralised porphyry body at P129 and extensions to both the north and south of the Yalea orebody. Work is continuing on these and other targets.

Morila - Southern Mali
The second phase of a 25 hole diamond drill programme has been completed ( 13 boreholes ) The deposit is still open at depth and to the east and north-east. A further 25 hole drilling programme has been commissioned. A prefeasibility study is in progress and will be completed by the end of July 1998.

Golden Ridge - Tanzania
Orebody modelling based on the results of the latest drilling programme at Golden Ridge has delineated an in-pit reserve of 8.90 Mt at a grade of 2.18 g/t. Metallurgical testwork is ongoing and the feasibility study will be completed by the end of July.

Exploration Activities
The focus of exploration activities for the coming year will be on the more advanced targets defined by the regional exploration of the past year. The company has budgeted a total of $9.5 million excluding ongoing exploration at Loulo and Syama.

Cote D'Ivoire
Regional exploration work has been completed on the Seguela and Nielle permits and programmes are focused on three priority targets. At the Tongon prospect of Nielle, two trenches were recently deepened and highlighted the presence of previously undetected mineralisation. The zone of mineralisation is up to 100 metres wide with a strike length of 1 400 metres. It is still open to the south.

Mali
On the Yanfolila permit, trenching, pitting and auger drilling has delineated a 1 400 metre shear zone ranging from 3 to 4 g/t over 9 to 15 metres. The mineralisation is open to the south and to depth. Regional work at Yanfolila is focused on ten follow-up gold targets which fit the company's criteria.

General

Outside of the Golden Ridge Project, Tanzania, Randgold Resources has completed a geological assessment of the greenstone belts and relinquished six prospecting licences held under JV with a local Tanzanian partner. Geological work continues to identify new opportunities.


Reconnaissance diamond drilling ( 6 holes, 1000 metres ) has been completed at the Bissa prospect in Burkina Faso in order to test an 800 metre zone with encouraging surface values over widths of 12 - 20 metres. Drilling results are pending. A new reconnaissance permit, referred to as Diarabokoko covering 1 200 km2 was acquired in the Banfora district, Burkina Faso.

As a result of the continued exploration and rapid turnover of prospects, the total number of targets has decreased from 183 to 115. Total groundholding is now 19 715 km2.


Prospects

The Syama 1 commissioning programme is on track for completion in June 1998 and Syama II in November 1998. A steady improvement is expected up to a production rate of 270 000 ounces per annum at $210 per ounce by the last quarter of this calendar year.
Completion of the Loulo Heap Leach Project Feasibility Study and a decision to proceed with development is expected at the end of July 1998.
The Morila Project is expected to be "fast-tracked" on completion of the prefeasibility study in the next quarter.
The loan facility of the US dollar equivalent of R90 million from the holding company is expected to be drawn down by November 1998 when it will be repaid through the issue of shares in the capital of Randgold Resources in a proposed issue of approximately $35 million, in which the company's other shareholders will be invited to participate on a pro-rata basis.
On behalf of Randdgold Resources Limited

R A R Kebble
Chairman

http://search.main.yahoo.com/search/news?p=kosovo

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980619/V000345-061998-idx.html

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980619/V000710-061998-idx.html

I suggest that you limit your game to Saturdays & Sundays and after 4:00PM weekdays.

WASHINGTON -- US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin praised
China for playing an "absolutely critical role" in ensuring Asian economic stability.

Mr Rubin said he had seen "no lessening" of China's commitment to resist pressure to devalue the yuan.

"I think they have played an absolutely critical role with respect to maintaining their currency, which has been very much in their interest," he said.

"Their doing so is very much an island of stability."

Mr Stanley Roth, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, warned that China could also devalue the yuan if Congress blocked the renewal of its most-favoured-nation ( MFN ) trading status in next month's vote. Denial of MFN would put pressure on China's export sector and endanger its plans for structural
economic reform, he said.

Devaluation of the yuan would set off another round of competitive devaluations in the region, he said, "raising the spectre ofdestabilised financial markets in Asia and beyond".

Such a move would place heavy pressure on fragile economies inThailand, South Korea and Indonesia which are trying desperatelyto boost their exports. AFP

We might as well get acquainted; it's going to be in the news for awhile.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Map_collection/europe/kosovo_93.jpg

1. The Japanese banks are so week and want safe capital . They are afraid to loan money to their customers for fear of losing it.
2. They overextended themself in their lending practices and have run out of deposits to loan.
3. American and European banks are aggresively trying to get a foot hold in corporate Japan and are offering special loan terms to attract customers.

Flash ( 21:19 ) It should be clear by now what a potent weapon China is holding with their "threats" to devalue the Yuan.

Rubin has reversed himself on Yen intervention, thereby creating the first chink in the world wide ( at least outside Europe ) public perception that the Dollar is the only place to go to escape currency and market chaos.

Now, Congress is being urged to mass MFN for China, or else!

China will devalue when it suits them. In the meantime, they have the US Administration on a string, especially with Clinton due to show up in Beijing next week.

American banks can charge high rates for the high risk. If they get paid back they keep it all. If they don't get paid back the taxpayer will take care of it for them. No problem.

I doubt if that string your talking about is very strong, and if China attempts to stretch it too far, it may snap back and sting.

Qualified customers in Japan could borrow money at 2% ( long term ) from commercial banks in Japan. If I was an American bank, I would NOT loan any money at all to the Japanese. You are right, if the Japanese default, the American tax payer will pick up the tab.

My money is on Buckler being exactly right about China and then some...

Delphi ( 20:00 ) On Wednesday and Thursday, it's true that Gold was going up in $US terms and was falling against most other currencies. It's not true today though. Today, Gold went up against ALL currencies.

I have just finished putting up the charts at the website ( The Privateer ) and am now working on the commentary.

Please consider the potential impact of this Dollar/Yen intervention. After months of capital flight into the $US, all of a sudden its starts gyrating in the same manner as all the currencies which people have been fleeing are gyrating.

Yes, it's early days yet and the $US moves are minuscule compared to what the Asian currencies have been suffering, but nevertheless, the precedent has been set.

Once the germ of an idea has begun that just maybe the Dollar isn't as "safe" as everygody thought it was, there won't be too many places to go, will there?

Remember Pandora's Box. Mr Rubin should, he's got his hand on the lid.

I got to go with you on Buckler's statement. Ole candy balls is primed for this

Well, as for S&P puts I'm not planning to buy any. That was just a snappish answer. ( 8-^] ) My original conjecture would have been to buy working farmland, hedge with 10% gold and enough government paper to pay the mortages through a few years of bad times.

Then later posters revealed that the possibility was that the Strad Master was contemplating selling his Strad. So all bets are off. If I owned a Strad I think if I was that bummed out I'd go directly to plan B, which would be to sell out everything else and buy the crawfish land, build a little cabin and sit on the back porch with a stack of Smithsonian tapes and cheat books of every fiddle tune ever written in every style ever composed and never look back until I'd memorized every damned one of them. Durn, I think of doing that anyway and all I've got is a rebuilt Hopf with a really dark sounding tone. P*ss on gold, music is more important. IMHO

delay, but got called to supper, and by the time I got back, my
server had kicked me out, and I couldn't get back on until now.

These are the ONE YEAR LEASE RATES FOR 1993 ( Aug to Dec is all I could find ) :

Aug 1.60%
Sept 1.55
Oct 1.60
Nov 1.61
Dec 1.55

As you can see, these are actually low for 1 year rates

For 1994, 1 year lease rates ranged from a low of 1.4 in May
to a high of 1.7 in Oct

For 1995: Apr 1.8
July 1.5
Nov 2.0
Dec 2.3

For 1996: Jan-Feb was 2.5, and rest of year 2.0 to 2.3

The highest 1 month lease rates were in Sept. of 1997 at 3.91 with
a forward rate of only 1.75 Not much profit margin for shorting gold
for just the forward rates, but by then we were into the steepest part
of the gold bear, and shorts were having a field day without the
forward rate margin.

I don't see any clear signal here for commencing a gold bull ( although the data for the early part of 1993 was missing ) I still believe that
the forward rates are significant.

count me in,, this just hits the right chord IMHO

rb

Average investor won't get excited until we hit 315.00 which should be next week ( Pray to Gold God ) .After all what we have heard CB ,High level Gold Meetings ,etcetc Next week should be fun But I have been broken harted before .

Comments

Bill Buckler, Donald ( yesterday's post ) , & T1. China is calling the shots on the US yen defense, too early to suit Japan, for sure. MOF Japan probably sleeps badly tonight; he had announced he would intervene when the time was right for Japan. He didn't, yet. As the world turns. . . .we're watching the Real soap opera!

There is just so much good stuff posted here that if you miss more than a day or two it's just gone, unless you have unlimited time. All of which is by way of saying that I may repeat what has already been said by many talented folk. Anyway...........the yen intervention this week is on a par with the Mexican intervention of 1982 and the G-7 Plaza Accords of 1995, which were orchestrated by the Honorable James Baker. Baker's Two and Rubin's One are of the same cloth. They are reactions to disinflationary panics threatening to descend into deflation. I think this one will be successful as the other two were. Mind you I do not think that manipulation runs markets. Had the events not happened there would have been no need to intervene. But I do believe that governments and institutions have an important role to play IF ONLY THEY DO IT WELL.
Most Kitcoites do not believe this, but I would urge you to reconsider this attitude based upon this week. Governments can matter for good as well as evil.
In any event, the time is and has been ripe for reversal out of the trendy deflationist camp for some time. We are 24 years from the inflationist momentum top and 18 from the price top of inflation. ( Actually some commodities peaked in 1974 as did the old economy world wide. )
My worldview is based on the long economic wave of Mr Kondratieff. 54 years +/-. 1789, 1844, 1896, 1949...........These were the final troughs. Some were THE low, some were secondary lows. "Our" low is somewhere between 1996 and 2003-4. At the time I thought 1996 would be it. The CRB Index nearly matched its 1986 low.
It may be that this is the momentum low for the end of the phase as 1985-86 was for the early phase, and we will have another low later. But I do believe that this is an important bottom in commodities ( and gold ) , interest rates, and inflation.
In the last big cycle 1932 was the absolute low with secondary lows in 1938, 1942, and 1949. This time 1982, 1986, 1996 and now. The low of 1949 was much higher than that of 1932 but it was the real end of the depression and the last Kondratieff trough.
You needn't acept all this or buy into the K wave theory, but it is important to watch for turns down in the US$ and turns up in commodities, interest rates, and inflation/money supply.
So far this upturn is much more like 1985 than any other. Gold bottomed in 1985 early, before the Plaza G-5 meeting. It went nowhere for quite a while. Gold bottomed in January 1998.
All these concerted international interventions from 1982 on are to prevent, hopefully, the uncoordinated "screw you" devaluations of the late 1920's and early 1930's. The Japanese haven't a clue in my opinion, but their deflation export policy was finally recognized and hopefully reversed by the recognition of the US and the Chinese and the action this week. It could fail and we could get four more years of this action from last summer, but I don't think so. I believe that human political action makes a difference and that good instances of it should be encouraged, whether or not you like the actors.

cherokee: I think Mike Sheller is right about oil -- its too soon!

hxtp://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/9

80619/news/stories/oil_2.html

( splice together and convert hxtp to http )

That's the second time my heading got cut off.

Wonder what is doing it?

Yet another "AYE" to Bill Buckler, Donald, and T1.

Yessir. China rules - at the White House, at least.

I am an average investor, I won't get excited untill we hit 2-5-0
in the meantime my money is where it belongs in my pocket. Except
for some physical, I collect for fun with my phoney money over time
wich of course is not for sale, untill the grapes are ripe!

Bill Buckler: I agree. Perhaps not yet, though. I also agree with you that China has BC on a string -- he must treat China favorably and do what they want, or they devalue the Yuan. China has BC as surely as if they paid his presidential salary for 4 years -- a stranglehold on the popular vote. BC cannot afford to let the markets fall, or he and the Democrats are toast. And -- China ia likely to devalue anyway. Already a 10% premium on the Juan black market, as I recall from Jin's last post.

China is in a win-win situation long term. If they devalue, their economic adversary Japan is hirt far more than they are. And, given their potential markets and cheap personpower, even a China bust will recover very quickly. Even in the worst of situations, foreign investors will not wait more than a year or two to flood China with capital again. You just can't ignore one of the world's largest markets.

BC will go to Tienamin Square. Also he will do essentially whatever the Chinese tell him to do. And it may not be in the best interest of the USA.

The Coward Erect has dismantled the United States piece by piece. He is going to bring grief to this country on far more than a financial manner.
You will see this happen...you will see much suffering...

The Chinese not only tell the Coward Erect what to do about defending the YEN but America as well.

Everyone knows the Swiss Franc has been consistently the strongest currency in the world during the last 15 years - bar none! One may ask to what do they owe that monetary strength. Surly, it is NOT the absolute industrial might of its world famous watch industry. It is not its export business which pales by US and/or Japan volume reference. It definitely is not the creamy taste of Swiss chocolates. And most assuredly, is not the prowess of its minuscule armed forces - especially without single battleship - come to think of it I don't believe Switzerland even has a navy.

What then is the mysterious monetary strength behind the Swiss Franc? Hell, any economic's student can answer that one! It is and has always been the gold backing of their fiat currency. This begs the question: Just how much do the Gnomes of Zurich covet in their mountain tunneled vaults? Here's the answer.

In 1993 the Swiss National Bank ( read Central Bank ) possessed 2,590 tonnes in gold reserves. This represents 12.4 ounces of the yellow for every man, woman and child in the country. The gold accounts for nearly 50% of Switzerland's official reserves - and by law at least 40% backing for their money in circulation. It is precisely that which has made the Swiss Franc the strongest currency in the world during nearly two decades. Not as good as gold, but BETTER!

In sharp contrast the US has a total stash of 261,000,000 in gold - which represents LESS THAN ONE OUNCE PER CAPITA. More than 12 times less than that backing the almighty Swiss Franc.

WHAT IF JUST WHAT IF the Clinton, Greenspan and Ruben were already preparing the economic and political climates so that the Democrats will be shoo-in landslide victors in the fall elections what would it take to make the greenback "as good as gold" - just like the Swiss Franc?

Obviously, the US Treasury and Fed would need to have about 3.3 billion ounces to equate to the equivalent per capita gold backing. But the Fed "says" it only has 261 million ounces of the noble metal - which means it is shy a little more than 3 billion ounces. But let's put this into some kind of perspective that everyone can identify with.

Annual world gold mine production is approximately 2,500 tonnes, equivalent to nearly 80 million ounces/year needed for the hypothetical gold backing on a per capita basis. Therefore, we are talking about 47 years of yearly mine supply at current production rates. Sounds ridiculous, eh? Especially, since there are just a little more than 120,000 tonnes of gold existing in the world above ground right now, eh?

Which brings me to a recent hypothetical study made by Chris Osborne of London. He conjectures the US government might be accumulating One Billion ounces in gold reserves. Heck, this sounds a lot more reasonable and feasible than 3 billion to emu;ate the skweakingly frugal Swiss. Well, you be the judge.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html

Vronsky - "Which brings me to a recent hypothetical study made by Chris Osborne of London. He conjectures the US government might be accumulating One Billion ounces in gold reserves"

The stocks didn't move as dramatically as one might have
expected, but what did the volumes do?

It looks like the sunspot cycle is catching up with us
http://msx4.pha.jhu.edu/ssip/Sun/Solar_Lesson2.html
Peak drought conditions lag seven years behind sunspot peaks.
Compare the years in the above url with the data from a great graph of past sunspot cycles at:
http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/images/zurich.gif
You all are experiences analysts with charts, graphs, trendlines, etc.
Do your own analysis from this data.
Bottom line is that it is very likely that 1997-2000 will be a period of ever worsening drought. It began last year in the southern plains and southwest.
THIS DIRE FUTURE IS TRULY A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD...
Yes, traders and speculators will clean up money-wise.
But we will all be hurtin' soon grocery-wise.
Add a major drought on top of low world reserves and Y2K and what it will do to humanity's ability to ship oil & fertilizer in to farms to grow our food and to ship the food to where it will be needed and we will have a harvest of something else besides grain. Some people may have lots of Gold but a Krugerand ain't gonna buy you a loaf of bread! Best stock up high, deep and early - in grains delivered to your pantry floor. You can't eat paper futures or golden eagles.

Some may say:
"my grains are smokin!!! bought 3 more dec corn @ 262.5 today....have 2 beans.....the grain train has left the station....ALLABOARD...LIMIT MOVES IN CORN ARE IMMINENT!!!!! the texas corn crop is absolutely scorched.... the heat is moving into the plains next....... if the corn crop does not receive rain in the next 2 weeks....it will be history!! beans are next in line...........ALLABOARD! who has ridden the limb of life and sent the smoke-signals-of-truth about the recordbreaking heat and up-coming diaspora in grains???"
And from CBOT:
"There is a threat of hot and dry weather,"" said Vic Lespinasse, floor commentator for broker A.G. Edwards. ``If this signals a shift in the weather, it could be a really big deal. But if on Monday, the threat is diminished, we"ll see these same big numbers on the board, only they"ll be negative."

Why do I keep thinking of The Grapes of Wrath?

To Tolerant 1. If BC were, in fact, the "Manchurian Candidate", how would his actions differ from those we've seen? Having a hard time drawing a line, getting chilled.

Date: Fri Jun 19 1998 13:57
APH ( Trading ) ID#255226:
I sold my long July silver at 5.43 and I'm now net short from 5.43. The stop is at 5.48.

Date: Fri Jun 19 1998 14:58
APH ( Trading ) ID#255226:
Crystal Ball - Thanks for the advise. I stayed short, I can bail Sunday night if need be. Spot Gold would have to close higher then 305 on the weekly before I'd start looking at the long side. This gold rally is no more then a retest of 300 and resistance. Silver is really disappointing, hasn't come near my objectives. I just reversed all my longs from 5.10. I'm looking for a down week in metals next week.

Bill Buckler,
I can't wait for your next issue of Privateer!
Your insight is enlightning.

want to sow some oats??? try these on for size...
oats.....and where they went during the last
heat wave/drought......munch,munch.munch....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha76.gif

eb--where you --be?

this is so easy......really.....

buy one contract with a margin of $600...1 cent = $50....
a 2$ move = $10,000..it happened in 96.....i believe it will
exceed the highs shown on this chart....put in stop losses
and ride captain ride, upon my mystery ship....grand funk rail-road...

mike sheller my friend....all things are possible....my options will
insure my seat is reserved.....i believe it to be sooner than you
'see' ......we shall 'see' together.....

hello to all who deserve a hello.....you KNOW who you are....the who
wants to know who are you? who are you? who are you? .....quadrophenia..
the best from the uk...

i know who you are.....gumblios...!; ) g'nite... hic'up...

I do not begrudge those who can afford to speculate on grains and other edible commodities. I only wish I could do so because there is a killing to be made here. If next year's drought is worse than this year's and this year's worse than last then the supply will get tighter and tighter and prices higher and higher until price controls and rations are imposed by a President of a nation devolving into civil war over loaves of bread.

What happens if Japan bites the bullet and wipes their bad debt off their books? Will burned savers and investors the planet over necessarily want to invest their assets in Number 1 after Number 2 implodes?

It is not reality to think America will become this impregnable fortress immune from the world burning around. If East Eurasia, Africa, Australia, South and Central America, and Canada go down, EVERYONE goes down!

What happens when our economy is devalued and no one wants to hold U.S. Debt? Can the Bank for International Settlements bail out Americas banking system? Asia will be in the advanced stages of recession as we were entering in a year or two.

REAL ASSETS, FULLY PAID FOR!

Maybe I'm wrong and Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and William Clinton really are a magical team who can make the economy skip the down phase of the business cycle, giving us back to back booms.

Steve

squirrel = realistic......

chop-a-saki...

use stop losses......use YOUR OWN MIND...

consider all things...

1. the farmers almanac is 80% correct with their predictions...
....they predict a drought this year.

2. last year was penultimate as far as growing conditions are concerned

3. el nino JUST HAPPENED to appear to possibly validate the farmers almanc prediction.....just happened they made it years ago....

4. everything is cyclical....physics proves this....nature validates it
everyday around the world by taking the lives of countless gumblios
in every-way imaginable...ie..volacanos, floods, hurricanes..etc....

5. chaos and flux......they will have their dance with your daughter regardless of what armament is brought to bear....

so where is the rain going to come from???? the jet is retreating north into canada....phase II of the heat wave is in-bound...ALLABOARD..
you too realistic......har.dee.har.har.......munch.munch.munch.....

cherokee!; ) ,,swatting.the.flies....for.the.benefit.of.the.other.flies..

cherokee_A, Namaste' a GIANT gulp back at ya...bbl got to run...

After only a brief look at the charts ( Gold, Silver and Xau ) , it seems we are not far away from the point where price appreciation will confirm a low and the commencement of an up turn in gold and silver. The Xau is washed out, having given up much in the Spot:Xau ratios.

At this point insufficent confirmation exists to begin to act aggressivley that a turn is in place, however at this point I can not help but be long.

Gold may now be a $300 commodity and silver $5.25-$5.50.

That's where they are trading, of course.

The Chinese are strongly in this picture, now. Which ever way the currencies go, and debt instruments with them in the short term, Gold's worth has just been increased. Chances will come to Japan. HK will get its property values back to earth. A shaking out in Asia will occur. American companies will be better for it because they will pick up many inexpensive assets in a region that will recover.

A dollar top and long bond top may be in. The operative word is "may."
Like the turn in the metals, its a little too early to tell whether the dollar has peaked and bonds done likewise. I feel bond yields may go lower and the dollar lower, too.

A lower dollar or a least a steady dollar is obviously needed for higher metal prices.

Bottom line, after a quick look, it seems we've started a basing action in the metal. The XAU post expiration, will catch up.



by A presious metal position is warrentled based a "gold bug" interpretation of the fundlementals. The

Actually I would maintain that the US$ has been the strongest currency over the past 15 years. And for good cause, namely the economy. The major crises in 1985 and now were because of a dollar which went too high relative to what other nations could muster. We were forced, then as now, to devalue a bit so others could live and breathe. Gold has only risen when the dollar has been forced down. Gold is always the best alternative currency to the dollar. If the dollar is going down I want to own more gold.

you do have the gift of reducing the complex to the truly significant!

Namast

squirrel...one more thing..i've read some of your more
'enlightening pieces'..... very adroit.....ahem....

your seat on the gumblio express is reserved....ALLABOARD!

i 'see' limit moves UP in corn with-in 2 weeks...you 'see' anothers opinion...
mine is my own, from my observations....does the nose-ring hurt?

we'll see...as realistic saw.....

cherokee!;...jerking-the-ring-in-the-nose

Squirrel is OK.

Hope there's room on the SSM for one more!

Have a grainful summer!

Well put.

and a good weekend to all. We'll need our rest if the next week is

as news-ful as this one!

See ya.

Thank you Brother Gollum! Muchly appreciated.