Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:08 - ID#287186)
Cherokee re your post that squirrel=realistic. Thank You!
What are MY calls?
I am investing as much as I can afford and more ( via debt ) into more edible commodities: Wheat, Beans, Rice, Oats, Corn, Sugar, Milk, Honey, Pork Bellies, Beef, Edible Oils, Tuna, Sardines, Spam, Fruit, Raisins, Pickles and Vodka {actually Jim Beam and Yukon Jack}, Guns and Ammo.
All of it where I can see it and protect it.
I wonder about the floor joists.
My stack of Tuna is five feet high ( 12 cans per layer ) which equals my stacks of cream corn, whole corn, various canned fruits and various soups. At last count my total wheat investment was about 700 pounds. I only have about 100 pounds each of Minute Rice and Oatmeal ( but rice is on sale this week - gotta order another three cases ) . Sugar=200lbs, Canned Milk=4 cases. Several cases of various spaghetti & barbeque sauces.
Within the next week or two I am taking delivery of another 300 pounds of GOLDEN HONEY - which I sell retail along with Silver Maple Leafs.
And for the tail end of my stores -
208 rolls of TP!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:17 - ID#287186)
Cherokee - I forgot to mention a couple items
Six feet of canned chili and pork 'n beans ( 12 cans per layer )
and the tuna is 24 cans per layer ( cases are 4x6x2high ) .
Two kerosene cook stoves - Korean style and kerosene lamps.
Did I say that this was for one person? Actually I hope to find a feminine companion before all chaos breaks loose. I need someone to watch my back and take shifts on watch ;- )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:20 - ID#252391)
Silver and the grains
Checked out grain charts - a turn did occur there the last few days. I see it as good for silver. I watch for the dollar and the bonds to stabalize here. For gold to gravitate higher, and silver to test $6 by the 4th of July..

Look no further than the commitment of traders in gold to be bullish. Commercials ( excluding funds ) are net long 2::1 , funds are short, the small speculator is net short,by a good margin - the small sppec is net short and the commercials are 2::1 long!!!!.

I've been around too long to be bearish with those stats hitting me in the face. Containment action will be exerted on gold ( we all believe, which has me worried ) . But the Chinese strenght in the picutre casts a new light - one which gold will shine in.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:23 - ID#287186)
Some may wonder about my sanity - for posting this stuff
I'm not worried because 1 ) I would have heard about it if locals read my Kitco posts these last month or two. 2 ) I am also heavily invested in lead. 3 ) My Marine buddies have volunteered to stand watch. We are all in this together.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:32 - ID#335190)
The Grapes Of Wrath @ FYI & FWIW
John Steinbeck
Since 1939, it has been burned, barred, banned, challenged, and placed on restricted use for "vulgar language" and characterization.
The Grapes of Wrath ( 1940 ) is director John Ford's most famous epic drama - the classic adaptation of John Steinbeck's Pulitzer Prize-winning, widely-read novel.

The dispossessed family's slow disintegration provides insight into the thousands of Oklahoman families who were evicted and uprooted from their "Dust Bowl" farm land, and forced to search westward for jobs and survival with other migrant workers. Its themes include the central importance of the family, the hollowness of the American Dream, human dignity and spirit in the face of adversity, and issues of social and economic justice.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:34 - ID#43349)
Early in the week the US and the BOJ, acting in concert, intervened in
the currency markets in support of the yen/dollar. There was an immediate
response in the markets.

The intervention was small and short lived being only $2Billion and for
only a short time, but with exquisite timing and was very effecitve.

The next day came a letdown in the markets inasmuch as the intervention
amounyed to only a warning shot and not a volley.

Then there came news of multi-country meetings as well as new resolves
by the BOJ which led to a longer and broader reaction in the markets.

Now Rubin is once again making ambivalent noises. If the market does not
sustain it's attitude that at last someone is going to actively do
something about the yen/dollar the markets will lapse back into "as before" conditions.

It should be noted that broad sectors of the market sees this as a weak
yen or a yen/dollar problem when it is actually a too strong dollar
problem, period. Be this as it may, markets are driven by perceptions
right or wrong.

So we must be on the lookout for items that either support or negate the
markets perception of the yen/dollar in order to verify if there will
continue to be a new tune for the market to march to or if this is to be
just another bear market rally.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:39 - ID#244418)
Getting ready for y2k
Federal vendor places huge order for mechanical adding machines.


Bill Buckler
(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:43 - ID#256381)
Great Article on Japan
If you want to read a truly excellent article on the present state

of Japan and its banking and financial system, try this link:

(Sat Jun 20 1998 00:50 - ID#190411)
@Goldman Sachs'o scheiss
So, Goldman Sachs is going to track TVX. They have given this company their seal of approval as "market performer".
TVX has killed all of the "safer" goldstocks in my little bag of dirt.
I went ballistic on Tuesday when TVX was dragging on the January bottoms.
I told my employees to buy at least a bit of this most hammered one.
TVX vs. ABX 2/1 no sweat.
The idea of Goldman Sachs calling this a market perform makes me ask of them, "How are your mexican bonds doing? "Que Dice?".
Or, how are your c swaps holding up?
Or better yet, If you didn't have the crushing power of the central government to tax the rest of us to make good on your fabulous investments, your IPO would be priced about the same as an IPO by Drexel Burnham, and Lambert.
GS is a disgusting company, - Parasitical liver flukes.
TVX will outperform ABX.
ABX also has one of the premier accounting companies extant.
They don't bother with the drudgery of inventory counting.
Sue me Coopers and Lybrand----
I sold American Barrick before, when the directors selected C+L to audit, and I will sell again.
If I cannot trust the auditors of Abx, then I might as well stick the proceeds into a junior.

Sorry about the rambling, but you can never trust an auditor, if you are a minor stockholder.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:01 - ID#43349)
@Bill Buckler
VERY good article. Thank you.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:01 - ID#190411)
apologies to Goldman Sachs..
Parasitical liver flukes is redundant.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:02 - ID#244418)
Why they buy
"Those ordering gold at Centennial Precious Metals cite these
major concerns:
* 1. the year 2000 problem.
* 2. the introduction of the euro.
* 3. Asian currency crisis
* 4. potential stock and bond market crash ( related to
all the above ) "

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:03 - ID#286249)
Bill Buckler
Excellent read. Many thanks.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:04 - ID#43349)
long weekend
It's getting late so I shall go and sleep perchance to dream.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:20 - ID#252197)
between a rock and a hard place
Squirrel: After reading the Ed Dames transcript

on the Art Bell page

you might want to put those supplies a bit in the

ground. Then again, after reading Scallion's

transcript ( from the same page ) , you may not need

to be concerned, they may be covered for you.

Doom and gloom to the max. Go life go...and gold.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:29 - ID#267298)
Need Help
Something I just do not understand.

I keep hearing all these references to paper gold shorts
being caught in a squeeze and POG rising astronomicaly
as a result.

POG has risen about $15.00 per ounce in the past four
days, some of this rise may be due to short covering but
I think it is more attributable to the rise in the yen.

What in your opinion does it take to bring about this often
mentioned "SHORT SQUEEZE", is it more a matter of
degree of spike in POG or more a matter of duration of
rising POG? or what?

All comments welcome................

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:39 - ID#190411)
goldbug central is ready for nitey-nite.
---Sweet dreams to all of the no-comments on the biggest spot POG rise in six months. Or, whatever.

Does anyone out there know who "polarbear" is?

His tout of RANGY along with the posting talents of Herr Vronsky, have led to large losses in a rising gold market.

To see the latest in stock pumping see URdumb@golden-ahole

Don't forget to drop the -en- as well as your pants when you visit the site.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:47 - ID#187109)
*Talked to TeddO on phone tonight*
for 45 minutes........he is well. Had ALOT to say. Details will be forthcoming. I must get to bed early though....I have a big golf match tomorrow and must get rest. I probably won't be able to 'talk' about it till Sunday a.m. ( Cal time ) . All good stuff..... ;- )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 01:51 - ID#190411)
There are some fine, honest mining companies out there, and I might find a few.
HERR Beethoven Vronsky wont find them for you.
And again I ask, "Vronsky, who are you?"

(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:00 - ID#252150)
John D.@If you're right then the European Banks will be eating their
SEAsain loans, because those economies will be mired in recession/depression for many years.

Even though I try to be optimistic, the situation is unfolding far worse than most of us could have imagined.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:06 - ID#252150)
Aurophile@You keep singing from the inflation hymnbook
My problem is-how can we have inflation with all this global overcapicity?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:42 - ID#401460)

Asia has a liquidity crises, they can not obtain financing to buy or produce goods.

Our labor cost are rising.

Our consrtruction cost are rising.
Concrete, Copper, etc and all labor.

The government is pumping new money into the economy with the pork barrel recent highway bill.

A major drought in Texas, 25% of the corn crop in US in trouble, plus Cotton being lost.

On a recent trip did not see very many corn fields, and other crops appear to be behind schedule.

Savings and Loans may be in trouble with mrtgage rates falling below their cost of money.

Clinton's Fed member Rivlin warns of inflation in the face of Asian problem. They can't raise rates or pull money out of the economy, to slow it down, with Asia in such a mess.

Rubin and Greenspan arguing in public.

Clinton problems, China Gate front page news.

No one seems to be able to find new credit worthy customers.

Margin calls have started.

The liquidity crises may hit here soon.

They are using the GM strike as a cheap way to slow down the economy...this is an old Democrat /Labor trick and the auto workers just get used as pawns. My father worked for GM, he saw this kind of thing happen many times.

IMHO, I believe, that after observing the markets this week, confirmation is now in on the direction of the economy. As Per "The Great Reckoning" Davidson and Rees-Mogg
They feel that they have no choice but print money in an attempt to keep the economy alive. This is a classic catch 22 situation for the CB.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:46 - ID#252150)
Random thoughts on a global perspective.
I'm in the deflationary camp. Limp strings are difficult to push-viagra notwithstanding.

It will be difficult to make money with AU in the next 6-12 months. The CBs consider AU to be their mortal enemy & have an impressive arsenal to fight it with. Nevertheless, although POG will be stuck in a trading range of 280-320 , nimble traders will do O.K.

Although it's anathema to me, the long bond is probably the best investment right now.

The S&P won't crash & DOW probably won't go below 7500 in the next year.

Y2K is wildly overblown.

Eventually the $U.S. will decline & AU will shine.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:51 - ID#386245)
Sorry, honey. We just hit a big animal on the road.

What was it?

Don't know. Let's have a look.
Too big to be a kangaroo, and just look at those teeth!! What is it?

Not sure hon, but it looks like a bear!!

Don't be silly! We don't have bears in Australia!

Well, we do now, and this one is deader 'n a doornail!! C'mon. Let's go.


Yes dear.

Could you do one little thing for me?

Sure dearest.

It has such a lovely golden coat. Could you skin it for me?

Why of course, dear. Nothin' I'd like more than to skin a gold bear!!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 02:54 - ID#252150)
Highrise@You seem to be covering all your bets & arguing for inflation
& deflation @ the same time.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 03:03 - ID#343259)
@Cherokee got sites and cites for grains?
urls for charts, the "Kitco" equivalent of newsgroup, etc. Much appreciated.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 03:34 - ID#24135)
Big trouble in little China
For James ..
Agree German bankers have problems with their SEA
Asia is said to have problems .. serious ones..
they probably do. I dont believe that changing the
number of yen that you can buy for a dollar will do
anything whatsoever to change anything. Exchange rates
are EFFECTS .. they are not CAUSES .. cosmetic
manipulations in EFFECTS dont change causes ..
Suggest german bankers PRETEND to have been paid.
Then everybody will be happy .. for a while ..
Screwing around with exchange rates wont really get
german banks loans repaid.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 04:12 - ID#252150)
John D.@Japan is the straw that stirs the drink in SEAsia
I dont believe that changing the
number of yen that you can buy for a dollar will do
anything whatsoever to change anything. Exchange rates
are EFFECTS .. they are not CAUSES .. cosmetic

Japan is the 2nd strongest economy in the world. If they can't compete in/with SEAsia, then they have no chance to recover. Don't forget, we are talking about a deflationary world.

1:15 a.m. here & calling it a day.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 04:21 - ID#413109)
Y2K wildly overblown???
JAMES- please email
would very much like to discuss this part of your
recent post without using the site. Thanks.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 04:51 - ID#24135)
The Alice Palladium Cookbook
" A short is a short is a short"
" Gold is in the grass "
" Flat upon its @ss"
" alas "

Gertrude Cheesehead..

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 05:13 - ID#24135)
Exchange Rates
for James..
You said ..
"Japan is the 2nd strongest economy in the world. If
they can't compete in/with SEAsia, then they have
no chance to recover. Don't forget, we are talking
about a deflationary world."

Er .. I knew that James .. Please clarify to me
exactly HOW changing the US/Japanese exchange rate
will enable the SEA countries to become more
competitive so they can pay back their German bankers..
If you Strengthen the YEN to say 80, then SEA can
replace Japanese exports with their own and pay back
GB ( german bankers ) .. But Japan closes down
and takes SEA with it. If you lower yen to say 200 ..
then Japan becomes more competitive .. amd SEA exports
less maybe and is less able to pay back GB.
I realize you sleeping now.. but really James the
competitiveness of a country is not affected BY its exchange
rate.. rather the exchange rate is set by a country's
competitiveness .. That is how Japan came to be the
2nd largest economy in the world. Its own growth
and investment has been instrumental in spurring the
growth of the whole region.
Obviously what I say on exchange rate is an
oversimplification .. and there are many short term
factors .. but the longer term thrust is correct.
Let me remind you this is digression .. it started
by my estimating a lower limit for the yen at 132 to
the dollar .. I think I was right .. then you said
you were worried about the GB. I dont see why you are
worried ?? or why monkeying about with the $/yen
exchange rate really affects anything much at all.
Think about it when you wake up.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 05:16 - ID#340302)
GOLD...CLIMBING A WALL OF WORRY (It's a good thing).
There were some encouraging factors occuring yesterday when gold broke above 300.

First, there was a retracement. Gold did NOT close at its high.

Second, the XAU put in an abysmal performance. Although it established a negative beta to general equities, it barely managed to do so.

So, essentially, gold broke 300 this time around in a very different manner than it did the last time.

Back then, there was sheer, over-the-top euphoria ( Kitco Barometer flying through the roof ) . The euphoria indicated a gold market already near fully invested. With so much at stake, emotions ran high. Once gold ran another $15.00, then a false canard from the Bank of Belgium dropped gold like a rock falling from a cliff.

This time, other than the usual two or three posters who get euphoric whenever gold moves up more than 2.00 per day, there was significant skepticism in the common, shared belief that this up-move was NOT to be believed. Most posters ( particularly technicians ) are looking for confirming evidence of a gold bull they doubt has arrived.

Conversely, this time around, gold shorts in general remain firmly convinced that gold MUST tumble and its upmove is solely related to "temporary" yen strength. Hence, there was relatively little short covering in yesterday's gold leap.

So, it seems that the gold market is not even 20% into a genuine bull euphoria. When such bull euphoria truly develops, then gold's up-moves should prove to be quite astonishing. The upside potential seems to far outweigh the downside potential at this point.

I have argued in the past that goldbugs will most likely miss out on most of the big up-move when it finally occurs.


Because, in a nutshell, goldbugs are OVER-educated in the cons of metal ownership. They hold rigidly to certain maxims ( e.g., all spurts upward in gold are ALWAYS short-lived, etc. ) and are ardent disciples of conspiracy theory ( e.g., if gold moves upward X%, then CB's MUST enter the market and counteract the move, etc. ) .

I have contended that the average non-goldbug does NOT possess one scintilla as much education ( or paranoia ) in the negative aspects of gold/gold stocks ownership. Moreover, they have not been beaten down over a period of several years by a government acting to suppress gold and re-direct flight monies into bonds. As such, the non-goldbugs' flight into gold should be much firmer, stronger, and durable once it surfaces.

For example, most non-goldbugs are not contemplating a world of pandemic paper disasters in which all paper ( including gold stocks ) becomes worthless. The non-goldbug believes strongly in paper and his faith is not going to disappear overnight. Ergo, when the triumvirate of American Faith ( US dollar, industrial equities, and bonds ) drop simultaneously, then metals ownership will represent the final logical repository of liquid wealth. Most non-goldbugs will make no distinction between owning the physical and owning gold stocks. They will view them as one and the same and, once they have dealt with their margin calls and necessary stock liquidiations, then remainder monies should pour into gold stocks more so than the physical.

When non-goldbugs monies pour into the gold market, then all the hoary venerable rules of goldbugism will be thrown out the window. We should witness a "new market" which, to paraphrase ANOTHER, is as never seen before ( Although I realize ANOTHER is skeptical about gold stock performance in such an environment, again, I suggest that ANOTHER is far from the typical DOW investor in knowledge of gold markets. He possesses pragmatic knowledge about possible downside to gold mining firms that these DOW investors would never consider in a flight to safety )

The impetus for non-goldbugs to pour money into gold/gold stocks, of course, will be the continuing deterioration of their prized DOW/NASDAQ

Personally, I believe that, once the DOW breaks below 8600 ( the low reached in OCT.'97 ) , then many DOW investors ( who entered the market last fall with short-term profit considerations ) will begin to panic. The resultant strong emotions will fuel many to cash out and search for another means to great short-term profit.

If at the same time, the bond market is tanking, then all these DOW/NASDAQ investors' strong emotions could light a fire in the precious metals arena.

Who knows? This time around, some mainstream Wall Street institutions might encourage flight to safety into gold stocks. After all, they too must be concerned that, if the US Dollar, general equities and bonds are tanking simultaneously, many average investors MIGHT wish to abandon paper altogether. In such a panic, it would be important that certain sectors of general equities ( such as gold stocks ) are completely immunized from a Crash.

I only know one thing...I cannot remember the last time Goldman Sachs endorsed a gold/silver firm as it did yesterday with TVX GOLD.

It smells like a trend shift.

It really does.



John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 05:16 - ID#24135)
Exchange Rates
for James..
You said ..
"Japan is the 2nd strongest economy in the world. If
they can't compete in/with SEAsia, then they have
no chance to recover. Don't forget, we are talking
about a deflationary world."

Er .. I knew that James .. Please clarify to me
exactly HOW changing the US/Japanese exchange rate
will enable the SEA countries to become more
competitive so they can pay back their German bankers..
If you Strengthen the YEN to say 80, then SEA can
replace Japanese exports with their own and pay back
GB ( german bankers ) .. But Japan closes down
and takes SEA with it. If you lower yen to say 200 ..
then Japan becomes more competitive .. amd SEA exports
less maybe and is less able to pay back GB.
I realize you sleeping now.. but really James the
competitiveness of a country is not affected BY its exchange
rate.. rather the exchange rate is set by a country's
competitiveness .. That is how Japan came to be the
2nd largest economy in the world. Its own growth
and investment has been instrumental in spurring the
growth of the whole region.
Obviously what I say on exchange rate is an
oversimplification .. and there are many short term
factors .. but the longer term thrust is correct.
Let me remind you this is digression .. it started
by my estimating a lower limit for the yen at 132 to
the dollar .. I think I was right .. then you said
you were worried about the GB. I dont see why you are
worried ?? or why monkeying about with the $/yen
exchange rate really affects anything much at all.
Think about it when you wake up.

Crystal Ball
(Sat Jun 20 1998 05:51 - ID#342376)
Privateer Gold multi-currency charts -- Thank you Bill Buckler

Take in and assimilate the big picture. Concentrate. Meditate. Breathe deep the gathering gloom. :- ) After a while you will see the part of the chart that has yet to be written take shape right before your eyes. I see chaos, pandemonium. $300 gold will be a halcyon memory of a lighthearted age of innocence.

Stand on the shoulders of giants like Cherokee. Remember the seven cows, handsome and sturdy, that came out of the Nile and grazed on the reed grass. Remember the seven other cows, ugly and gaunt that came up behind the others, that ate up the sturdy handsome cows. Remember the seven ears of grain, solid and healthy, that grew on a single stalk; and the seven ears, thin and scorched by the east wind, that sprouted close behind and swallowed up the seven solid and full ears.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
Camdessus denies knowledge of Chinese pressure for yen intervention.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Rubin says Tokyo meeting unlikely to produce a plan.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:15 - ID#26793)
Tokyo meeting statement expected at 5pm Tokyo time.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
Intervention made dollar priced gold less expensive in Japan.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:31 - ID#26793)
Roman sarcophagus with gold artifacts found in Lebanon.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:34 - ID#411331)
@ Farfel: I agree with you completely. I purchased my entire
gold stock portfolio in Dec-Jan 1888, and put about 20% in Physical.
My largest single holding is TVX, followed by FSR. By the middle of
next year, I intend to sell 50% of these positions and rotate the
cash into physical gold and silver. I am presently looking for a
dealer in junk silver in the Toronto area.

It is extremely important to have an exit strategy, as I'm sure
you realize. This strategy assumes that you are correct, and we
go into a stagflation. If we have a crash and deflation, the above
still works. It is tempting to keep the money in stocks longer, say
into 2001 or 2002, but my profits would be taxed at far in excess of
60%, and pm physicals are taxed at zero. Best wishes.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:38 - ID#384350)
Stock Market and Dollar Decline
"Though the US economy still has strong momentum, it is for reasons explained, highly vulnerable. Later this year, it will abruptly and sharply slow down. Contrary to bullish Wall St forecasts, profits will not rebound but accelerate their decline, finally devastating the bullish profit arguments.

As to currencies, we stick to our forecast that we have been making for months: Brace for a prolonged fall of the dollar against the European currencies. Given the dramatic decline of profits on the horizon, the end of the bull market has arrived--or is at the very least in sight."

--The Richebcher Letter, June 98
105 W Monument St, Baltimore, MD 21201
1 888 737-9358

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:39 - ID#344308)

gold and oil....

another perspective....again.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
An Arab opinion to Jewish claim on Swiss gold.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:43 - ID#344308)

the japans....the nikkei...3 views...

seeds for BIG plants.....

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:45 - ID#344308)

facts from the fin who shared....look back to see forward..

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Bank of China denies it is a seller of U.S. Treasury bills.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:52 - ID#26793)
Hi to pick up a copy of Barron's.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:52 - ID#344308)


excellent analysis.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:55 - ID#344308)

want to know?....make it so....

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:57 - ID#344308)

charts and option quotes for commodities.....

(Sat Jun 20 1998 06:59 - ID#253246)
Rhody TVX


I own some TVX and was concerned that the recent enviromental problems ( tailings dam break in Spain, spill in Russia ) with other gold companies will make it harder for TVX to get the necessary enviromental
approvals for their extraction plant and tailing areas for the Olympias
project. The feasibilty studies for the TVX's Olympias & Skouries
projects seem to be continuously delayed ( $150oz gold ) .

I havn't seen any information on whether TVX resolved the law suit
filed against them concerning the aquisition of the above properties.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:00 - ID#344308)

charts and options again..

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:04 - ID#344308)

connectivity from giants....

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:05 - ID#411331)
@ Farfel: I know you tend to downplay the impact of CB manipulation
in the gold spot markets, but it is real. Consider:
Each time hold has threatened to break $300, we have had
negative announcements such as:
1 ) Dutch gold sales ( true but not into the spot market )
2 ) sales by the CB of Portugal ( true but ditto above )
3 ) sales by Swiss CB ( untrue, in fact they are buyers )
4 ) Wm Duisenburg announces disappointing backing by ECB for EURO
at only 10-15% ( note the wording: "consensus by E. CBS to back
the Euro with 10-15% gold still holds the door open to back it
with more. )
5 ) __________________ ( fill in the blank with the ones I forgot )
In my opinion, ECBs are all net buyers of gold at depressed prices
that they themeselves have manipulated. Their chief weapon in
the lease rate, but words are also cheap, if not imediately profitable.
Expect some negative announcement on Monday or Tuesday to head off
this latest surge in the spot POG.

Sorry about the confusion re George Bush as a director of Barrick.
Brian Mulroney was, but George was only a paid consultant. On the
one hand it is embarrassing to be incorrect, and the victim of false
information, but on the other hand it is encouraging that those
who post here on Kitco, are so scrupulously concerned with correctness
and accuracy. ( They still, I think, missed the point. Why would the
ex-president of the United States, and ex-Prime Minister of Canada
accept positions on this continent's largest gold mining company?
Why not Microsoft, or HP or some other trendy LARGE corporation? )
Keep in mind that it was Brian Mulroney who sold off Canada's gold

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:10 - ID#344308)

for the paper lovers...

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:12 - ID#344308)

in honor of sir mozel...

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:15 - ID#411331)
@ BUFFORD: I have heard nothering particularly negative re the
permits, although I have only visited the company website for my info,
and they are hardly likely to be pessimistic. They say they are on
track for production in 2001. The 'street' really likes them, so I
go with the flow. They have costs below $200 per oz and reserves in
excess of 10 years, so they qualify as an investment vehicle in my book.
Even if the Greek play is held up, their other operations ( including
their 13 million oz silver production for the next two years ) make them an interesting pm play. IMHO

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:15 - ID#344308)

ANOTHER opinion for gold.....worth the read...

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:25 - ID#344308)

and j orlins' home page.......tah dah....

read on.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:33 - ID#320111)
Dirt under the rug.
As a lurker and rare contributor to this forum ( I am only a novice ) ...I would like to offer an observation.

After witnessing three economic boom and bust periods in my adult life ( 70's and on ) it occurs to me that there is one thing which seems to be a constant result when the busts come. It is the huge amount of shady deals and cooked accounting practices that surface when the harsh light of economic reality finally shines through the hysteria of the final phases of the boom.

We are only now witnessing the horrific results of the Asian "cowboy" mentality to investments and all the attendant problems which lay under the surface for so long....why will it be any different for Europe or North America?

You can only throw money at the looming financial crisis for so long before the chickens come home to will not cure the financial rot
arising from greed in excess that has become the foundation of the world
economy. Even the average Joe on the street is begining to sense something big is coming to a head and this is usually a sign that the party is just about's even getting hard to find talking heads on T.V.
who are still spouting " it'll only be a 10% correction" and all the other B.S. that goes with it .....after this past week the best we can hope for is a band aide solution to tide us over for a few weeks as a result of this weekend's meetings.

How many poor fools will become victims of incompentent fund managers, bank officers etc.? Too bad that only the informed will be able to profit from the impending crisis...the rest will go down in flames having relied on the judgement of others to manage their financial future.IMHO.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 07:34 - ID#255226)
Jims - Your post ( 00:20 ) sets up a good test of fundamentals verse technicals. I've seen a few markets myself. Silver will be at 5.00 - 4.80 before July 4th.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 08:31 - ID#432157)

Mr. Mick
(Sat Jun 20 1998 08:49 - ID#345321)
Cherokee....thanks for the read!
Confirmed what I knew already, but was nice to hear it from someone else.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:04 - ID#345321)
Proof that Chinese Communism is a complete and utter failure................
Chinese Encouraged to Buy Homes

By RENEE SCHOOF Associated Press Writer

TIANJIN, China ( AP ) -- Take a walk down nearly any street in China's
big cities and you'll see where the most sweeping social transformation
since the breakup of the communes two decades ago is about to take

Right at home -- in the drab apartment buildings where most urban
people live.

China is about to end nearly 50 years of allocating very low-rent
apartments. A national conference on Wednesday formally announced
the government's plan to promote home buying instead.

Beijing hopes housing reform will unleash spending to spur economic
growth. Another aim is to help debt-ridden state factories by eliminating
their huge burden of providing housing.

To help people with average incomes afford to buy their housing for the
first time, the government will set prices and provide subsidies, promote
construction of affordable housing and encourage state banks to provide
more mortgages.

Zhao Lijun, a former journalist who runs an art-framing business, said
she and her husband, an artist who used to work for the Ministry of
Culture, can afford to buy their two-bedroom apartment in central
Beijing. The ministry, which owns their building, recently posted notices
telling residents to apply to buy.

Ms. Zhao said she will pay about $3,600 for an apartment that would
otherwise cost $24,000.

Some cities have been experimenting with housing reform for several
years. In Tianjin, a port near Beijing, 60 percent of all government
offices have stopped providing housing and have given workers
lump-sum payments to help them buy apartments.

Workers also save 5 percent of their salary, which the government
matches, in a housing account and withdraw it when they are ready to

Xu Yanhe, a 45-year-old retired factory worker, moved with her
husband, mother and daughter last July into an apartment complex that is
a national model for spacious, pleasant housing.

Pink and yellow buildings of different heights topped with red tile roofs
are clustered around a huge expanse of lawn -- a rare sight in the
world's most populous country.

Mrs. Xu and her family bought their $24,000 apartment with savings,
government help and a family loan. The three-bedroom apartment with
its brown floor tiles, wood paneling, new air conditioners and lace
curtains doubled their living space.

``It's very light. There's nothing outside my windows, and it's quiet all the
time,'' said Mrs. Xu.

At the high end of the market are elegant apartments and big suburban
houses. These are bought by a new class of well-to-do Chinese --
entrepreneurs, professionals and employees of large joint venture
businesses who also can afford cars, cell phones and private schools.

But most wage earners cannot afford to buy apartments without
government help. Since the plan was disclosed in March, everyone has
been talking about housing -- a mix of reluctance to end the welfare
system and enthusiasm about a chance to buy.

Beijing's apartment blocks look both unfinished and decayed. Most are
gray or tan concrete, or red brick with concrete trim. Main entries open
to elevators or concrete stairways where the paint is peeling and the
lights don't work.

What Beijingers have always liked about their apartments is that they've
been cheap. A typical 670-square-foot apartment rents for about $7 a
month, about 6 percent of an office worker's salary of $120.

But rents will go up as welfare housing is phased out in the second half
of the year.

Prices depend on whether the apartment faces the sunny south or the
cold north winds, how far it is from downtown, the buyer's years of
government service and rank, and the age of the building.

The poor will continue to receive small, low-rent apartments.

Anger over housing disparities has become a big problem, said Sun
Huaqi, deputy director of housing reform in Tianjin.

``But now it's a market economy,'' he said. ``If you're a small
businessman and can afford an enormous apartment, that's not my affair.
It's like buying a TV. Whether you have a big one or a small one
depends entirely on your ability to pay.''

Mr. Mick
(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:06 - ID#345321)
Yeltsin's future............................
Communists Eye Yeltsin Impeachment

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- The leader of Russia's Communist Party said
today that his party's goal is the impeachment of President Boris
Yeltsin and if the masses rise up in anger, the president could be
forced to resign.

Gennady Zyuganov told a party plenum that the goal of the party was
``impeaching the president in a peaceful way,'' the ITAR-Tass news
agency reported.

On Friday, the lower house of parliament voted to begin preparing an
impeachment motion against Yeltsin. But it allowed more than a year
to launch the motion, indicating it probably would fade like past

The Communists and their allies in Parliament have accused Yeltsin of
a range of transgressions, including instigating the collapse of the
Soviet Union, launching a botched war in Chechnya and ruining the

(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:20 - ID#410215)

That was kind of you


(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:26 - ID#374204)
Somebody please lob me a take
Suppose a feller sunk some $'s into franco-nevada ( TSE )
a while back & has enjoyed watching it slowly nosedive,
while POG is now about the same as when he bought in.
This despite an impressive prospectus boasting no debt,
good history & what seems to be a very good mgt team.

Supposed that said feller is a bit perplexed.
He thinks he's not a complete idiot, but can't
make any sense of it. What is he missing here?

Canadian $ mismanagement? TSE caught in the wake of Asian mess?
Market manipulations? Mining is not where it's at?
All of the above?

If someone could kindly let me know,
so I can explain it me, errrrr him.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:31 - ID#45173)
Learner: "A fool and his money are soon parted" was the message to
trust owners of the late 1920's and the message for anyone with their retirement savings in mutual funds today. Sadly, any believe the stock market will continue to grow to infinity after a slight pause or, if it goes down, it will "go back up again." They say, "I'm in it for the long haul." I heard this misguided financial plan just yesterday from the receptionist at a company where I used to work. She's in her late fifties. I told her the stock market will indeed go back up again, but perhaps she will not get her original investment back for ten or 20 years.

The tragedy that is befalling the Japanese people is even worse. The accumulated wealth of a generation that worked its way from devastation to build the second largest economy in the world is about to see that hard-earned treasure flushed away by bankruptcy.

Thanks for your post.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:41 - ID#242325)
Lease Rates
Rhody: Thanks for the 1993 lease rate information! Good to know that a gold bull CAN occur despite ridiculously low lease rates.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:42 - ID#411331)
@ Tantalus: The Franco-Nevada position should at least be up the
percentage fall in the Canadian dolar vs the US dollar, assuming you bought your position at the end of last year. When gold fell to
284 recently, the XAU did not fall back to the price levels prevailing last year when the price of gold was last at 284. The XAU is lagging the spot POG now as it rebounds just as it lagged the spot POG down in its most recent test of new lows. I think the XAU will be out in front
of the spot POG, only when the most recent price rise has proven itself to be other than another false rally.

I am happy to hear from someone else who has held on to gold shares despite all the negative sentiment over the last month, as we retested
the old lows. I came to the conclusion a month ago that the US gov't would reinflate, rather than drag the whole world down into a deflation.
I am a long term investor, rather than a trader.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 09:53 - ID#242325)
National ID; Myth of Liberal Media
From the "Progressive Review"


The Department of Transportation, acting in response to legislation quietly
passed by the Congress and signed by President Clinton is moving to create a
de facto national ID card without any serious public debate. Such a card has
been central to the maintenance of dictatorial control in authoritarian
nations. Americans have historically opposed such enforced identification.
Under the new plan, however, states that fail to comply with the
identification program based on Social Security numbers will not be
permitted to participated in a variety of functions involving federal
support. Individuals will also be required to use the national ID card in
order to get routine services. For example:

-- Non-conforming license will not be accepted for identification by any
federal agency including law enforcement, and passport offices.
-- The national ID will be required to prove one is an American citizen
qualified to receive employment
-- It will be necessary under new healthcare rules to submit the ID in order
to receive medical care funded under Medicaid and Medicare.
-- It will be required to board a commercial plane and thus will serve as a
mandatory internal passport, something never before required in the US

For information on how to oppose this action as well as excerpts from the
DOT announcement:


A survey of 141 journalists indicates that the Washington press corps is
more conservative than the general public on a range of economic issues from
taxes to trade to health care to Social Security. The survey -- conducted
for FAIR by Professor David Croteau of Virginia Commonwealth University --
reveals that while most national journalists identify themselves as
"centrists," their views on bread-and-butter issues are often to the right
of public opinion.

In a questionnaire targeted primarily at America's most powerful news
outlets, journalists were asked policy questions modeled on ones mainstream
polling firms had previously asked of the general public.

Among the findings:

STATE OF THE ECONOMY: The Washington press corps is far more bullish than
the public: Only 5% of the surveyed journalists said that economic
conditions today in the U.S. are "fair" or "poor" -- compared to 34% of the
general public who chose "only fair" or "poor" in a recent nationwide poll.
Most of the journalists declared household incomes at $100,000 or more, with
31% at $150,000 or more. ( The median U.S. household income is roughly
$36,000. )

CORPORATE POWER: Washington journalists are more conservative than the
public on the question of concentrated corporate power. Asked whether "a
few large corporations" have "too much power," journalists were much more
evenly divided than the public, with 57% to 43% responding affirmatively.
Nationwide polls have consistently found the public to be quite one-sided
on the question, with 77% ( vs. 18% ) responding in the affirmative in a 1995

TAXING THE WEALTHY: The general public appears to be more populist than the
press corps on taxation. Asked about President Clinton's 1993 economic
plan, journalists responded fairly evenly as to whether the plan "went too
far" ( 14% ) or "not far enough" ( 18% ) in raising taxes on the rich. This
contrasts with the results of a similar 1993 poll question in which 72% of
the public chose "not far enough" and only 15% chose "too far."

TRADE TREATIES: As fervent free-traders, most of the Washington press corps
are strongly at odds with the American public. Most polls reveal a public
that is negative or dubious about NAFTA's impact on the U.S. But in
overwhelming numbers ( 65% vs. 8% ) , journalists assess NAFTA as having had a
positive impact. Also, the public opposes giving the President "fast-track"
authority to negotiate new trade treaties almost as vehemently ( 67% opposed
in a recent poll ) as the surveyed journalists support "fast track" ( 71% in
favor ) .

ECONOMIC PRIORITIES: Asked to prioritize various issues for the President
and Congress, journalists and the public are often at odds. On
entitlements, journalists overwhelmingly chose "reform entitlements," by
slowing growth in Medicare and Social Security, as one of the top few
priorities. In contrast, most of the public chose "protect Medicare and
Social Security against major cuts." On NAFTA expansion, 24% of journalists
chose expansion of NAFTA to other Latin American countries as one of the top
few priorities, but only 7 % of the public did. It was actually put "toward
bottom of list" by 44% of the public. On health care, only 32 % of
journalists chose "require that employers provide health insurance to
employees" as one of the top few priorities, while 47% of the public did.

GUARANTEED MEDICAL CARE: The general public is more emphatic that it is
Washington's responsibility to guarantee medical care for all people without
health insurance. While journalists were somewhat split on this proposition
( 43% pro, 35% con ) , the public supported it in a 1996 poll by a 2-to-1
majority ( 64% to 29% ) .

ENVIRONMENT: The only survey question in which journalists appeared to the
left of the public asked respondents to choose whether stricter
environmental laws "cost too many jobs and hurt the economy" or "are worth
the cost." Journalists responded 79%-21% in favor of "worth the cost"; in a
1996 poll, the public also heavily favored that option, but by a lesser
majority ( 63% to 30% ) .

"I'M A CENTRIST": When asked to characterize their political orientation on
social issues as "left," "center" or "right," 57% of surveyed journalists
chose center, 30% left and 9% right. When asked to characterize their
orientation on economic issues, 64% of the journalists chose center, 19%
right and 11% left.

"There appear to be very few national journalists," concluded Croteau, "with
left views on economic questions like corporate power and trade -- issues
that may well matter more to media owners and advertisers than social issues
like gay rights and affirmative action.".

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:06 - ID#411331)
@ Old Gold: Yes, it does appear that a gold bull is possible
despite low gold lease rates, yet I still contend that low lease rates
combined with high interest rates do upset the equilibrium.
The equilibrium price of gold is over $600, yet in the 1993 gold bull, gold rose to only c$400. In the 1980 gold bull, which predates gold
leasing, gold rose to $800. If what is happening to the world financial system is as is feared by most on this forum, then the gold bull of '98
should be far higher than the bull of '80. It may mot be, or it may
be retarded, or because of the induced lease short overhang, it may be
exaggerated. IMHO, it will be different, and warped by the presence
of gold leasing. In short ( excuse the expression ) I don't really know,
because nobody can predict the future. I do think lease rates are worth

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:12 - ID#426220)

Everyone knows the Swiss Franc has been consistently the strongest currency in the world during the last 15 years - bar none! One may ask to what do they owe that monetary strength. Surly, it is NOT the absolute industrial might of its world famous watch industry. It is not its export business which pales by US and/or Japan volume reference. It definitely is not the creamy taste of Swiss chocolates. And most assuredly, is not the prowess of its minuscule armed forces - especially without single battleship - come to think of it I don't believe Switzerland even has a navy.

What then is the mysterious monetary strength behind the Swiss Franc? Hell, any economics' student can answer that one! It is and has always been the gold backing of their fiat currency. This begs the question: Just how much do the Gnomes of Zurich covet in their mountain tunneled vaults? Here's the answer.

In 1993 the Swiss National Bank ( read Central Bank ) possessed 2,590 tonnes in gold reserves. This represents 12.4 ounces of the yellow for every man, woman and child in the country. The gold accounts for nearly 50% of Switzerland's official reserves - and by law at least 40% backing for their money in circulation. It is precisely that which has made the Swiss Franc the strongest currency in the world during nearly two decades. Not as good as gold, but BETTER!

In sharp contrast the US has a total stash of 261,000,000 in gold - which represents LESS THAN ONE OUNCE PER CAPITA. More than 12 times less than that backing the almighty Swiss Franc.

WHAT IF JUST WHAT IF the Clinton, Greenspan and Ruben were already preparing the economic and political climates so that the Democrats will be shoo-in landslide victors in the fall elections what would it take to make the greenback "as good as gold" - just like the Swiss Franc?

Obviously, the US Treasury and Fed would need to have about 3.3 billion ounces to equate to the equivalent per capita gold backing. But the Fed "says" it only has 261 million ounces of the noble metal - which means it is shy a little more than 3 billion ounces. But let's put this into some kind of perspective that everyone can identify with.

Annual world gold mine production is approximately 2,500 tonnes, equivalent to nearly 80 million ounces/year needed for the hypothetical gold backing on a per capita basis. Therefore, we are talking about 47 years of yearly mine supply at current production rates. Sounds ridiculous, eh? - especially when one consideres there are just a little more than 125,000 tonnes of gold existing in the world above ground right now.

Which brings me to a recent hypothetical study made by Chris Osborne of London. He conjectures the US government might be accumulating One Billion ounces in gold reserves. Heck, this sounds a lot more reasonable and feasible than 3 billion in order to emulate the squeakingly frugal and financially prudent Swiss. Well, you be the judge.

Full report at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:13 - ID#360150)
BARRON'S Japanese Market Article......
I understand there is a good article by a fellow who accurately called for the Nikkei bear market, and is looking for a bull market there now.

Does anyone get Barron's that could patch that article here please?

Thank you.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:15 - ID#242325)
lease rates
Rhody; Agree 100%. Low lease rares are a big negative. But a real gold bull still is possible under the right conditions. I view low lease rates as akin to 50 mile an hour headwinds that POG has to overcome for a bull move to commence.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:26 - ID#316209)
Re: Low lease rates
Isn't it possible that low lease rates have no long term significance to whether POG goes into a bull market? IMHO low lease rates simply increase liquidity, like low margin rates for stocks, thereby creating the possibility of a larger short position. It might take longer for the bull market to start moving, but if the fundamentals are in place for a bull move, it will eventually occur. Also, it seems to me that the increased short position will tend to make the market more volatile and possibly go a bit higher than would otherwise be the case as the shorts are forced to cover at higher and higher prices. On the downside, it has been reasonably clear that the low rates and increased liquidity has forced the price to overshoot on the way down.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:32 - ID#27341)
Learner- i believe you are right-
The Japanese Prime Minister has little power to carry out the US derective, also the Japanese people would rather kill themselves, than become unemployed, and if the rationalization means putting thousands out of work it will not happen in the near future.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:35 - ID#316209)
@Hopefull....I wouldn't be surprised
that the Japanese market is bottoming and a good buy. After all, they have been in a bear market for about 9 years and a lot of the air has been taken out of the bubble. IMHO very low interest rates plus a relatively weak yen should be very positive for their economy in order to spark a turnaround. Interesting how people consider Japan to be hopeless and a basket case now at these levels with them doing so many of the right things. Where were they in 1989 when parking lots in Tokyo were valued at 1/2 of Manhattan? If you recall, the Yen was very strong then against our dollar, which was harmful to their export trade. Somehow, they were able to deal with it for a while and still were able to compete rather effectively with their products. Eventually, the expensive Yen was too much for their industry and their economy turned down. However, now, with their inexpensive Yen, we ought to be thinking bullishly about them rather than pessimistically.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:45 - ID#411331)
@ lenaxe and Old Gold: Agreed. I tend to think of gold bulls
as periods during which the CBs lose control, and
gold explodes towards its equilibrium value. The
chief control mechanism is lease rates and threatened
I learned another interesting tidbit yesterday.
The gold leases are repayable in gold only.
This only made sense, but I couldn't verify this
fact on this forum. So a lease rate of 2% per year
( a low average figure ) would require 2 oz of interest
on a 100 oz lease.

Various people on this forum have estimated the total
leased gold volume to be about 8000 tonnes. At 2% per
year, the interest on this is 160 tons per year.
If the total annual production of gold is 2500 tonnes
per year, then the interest on the leased gold will
be consuming 6.5% of total new gold output ( assuming
the CBs allow the borrowers to roll over their
leases ) The problem with all this is if John Q public
also adds to the demand, and gold production is
scheduled to increase only 1% next year, and 8000
tonnes are still owing ( 3-4 years total world output ) ,
then we are looking at a situation in which the CBs
may really lose control! KABOOM.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:46 - ID#412286)
The Elite
Media per the below poll shows the establishment is socially liberal as THEY want to be able to do anything they want. They are rightists on economics by being for all the programs which hurt average workers.
The Japanese and Europeans will overtake the US because they stand by the social contract with their people and not just the markets ala US Chainsaw Al. Even many of our liberals are for breaking the social contract for the benefit of the market. Democratic Socialism--YES Rapacious anti-worker anti-democratic US system soon to the trash heap of history along with Chainsaw Al and his many greedy twins in US industry.


If the yen goes up bad for bonds.
If the yen goes down bad for stocks.
If binds go down too far bad for stocks.
If stocks go down too far bad for dollar ie confidence.
If dollar goes down bad for bonds.
Everyone in the world owns US stocks and bonds and on leverage.
But this is the best economy ever.

AG and RR look a little panicky by changing positions everytime the market moves.

What happens when the dollar loses its safe haven status?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 10:57 - ID#316209)
Interesting point about the leases being payable in gold rather than cash. I had thought they were using the gold to create additional earnings for their bottom lines. I guess that is still possible, but it may be possible that another reason is to collect additional gold for the vaults. I have read that the leases themselves are payable in gold, not cash at a certain level. It's one thing to be short fungible US$, like some of the Asian borrowers were; but quite another thing to be short of a commodity that must be replaced with like kind. While the commodity is readily available as gold is now, it isn't a big deal. Imagine being short gold or worse yet silver in 1980. How do you get your hands on it to cover a short position? That's probably what happened then causing the markets to overshoot at the end of their bull moves.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:06 - ID#411331)
@ lenaxe: lease rates reayable in gold also explains why the
rates can be low. But funds have defaulted big time before, and
when this thing blows, they will again. I wonder how much
of that 8000 tonnes is coming back? A 2% lease rate factors in
nothing for risk of default. How can these people call themselves
bankers when they have no concept of risk? Of course, they are
not lending out their own assets, just the assets of their
citizens, so the risk is perceived as more political, than
economic. IMHO

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:18 - ID#316209)
Bankers and politicians belong in the same box. ( Not much use for either ) . Bankers specialize in lending money who don't need it or worse, those who are borrowing unsound sums for unsound reasons. Reminds me of what Walter Wriston said of the Latin American loans in the 1980's...that they were of the highest quality because they were to sovereign nations. He sure got to eat his words. Politicians tell you what you want to hear when they want your vote; otherwise it's lies, lies, and more lies and to hell with the truth. Witness Rubin this week; it was the perception of the moment that carried the day. If Rubin really spoke the truth the first time, why did he change his stance just days later? Just politics as usual.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:25 - ID#372400)
Rubin's comment
May be the Rubin's comment Friday on lack of expectations about concrete plans for Japan was to show Japanese future market reaction towards yen if they fail to negotiate in earnest with G-7 a concrete plan of action?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:42 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Squirrel: 208 rolls of TP! . . . Twenties or C-notes?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:48 - ID#29048)
Hopeful..Here is the Barron's article

June 22, 1998
A New Dawn for the Land of the Rising Sun?
Analyst Who Foresaw Nikkei's Plunge Sees Bull Move

By Peter C. Du Bois

Amid widespread skepticism, even disbelief, that the Japanese government will do what last week it said it would do ( see below ) , one contrary view really stands out. Montreal-based Sid Klein is a technically oriented
observer of global financial markets who long has been bearish on the outlook for Tokyo stocks. Now he believes that a secular bull market has begun. If his scenario is correct, Klein sees the 225-share Nikkei index rising to 24,000-27,000 over the next 24 months in an initial cyclical rally in a secular upswing.

In his view, what's good for Tokyo is bad for the U.S. stock market. To help pay for structural reforms and participate in the coming Tokyo rally, the Japanese will repatriate some money now parked here, he says. In turn, he adds, this flow of funds will help to drive U.S. equity indexes into a secular bear market over the next five-to-seven years.
To his credit, Klein -- who sends free to his clients the eponymous Sid Klein Daily Fax -- called the top of Tokyo's long bull market in the fourth quarter of 1989, and predicted a 50% drop. The Nikkei subsequently
plunged 63%, to 14,309 in 1992, and has spent the past six years bouncing up to 22,000 and down again.

Until about a month ago, Klein thought the Nikkei would drop through the bottom of this range and fall to about 11,000. Recently, he covered short positions in Nikkei futures contracts and went partially long again. Why?
He strongly believes the Japanese government finally will push through needed reforms. Time, not price, now is his main concern. His cycle studies call for a secular low between June 23 and July 15, with the Nikkei holding above 14,000. In this event, he'd go 100% long in 12-month, deep-out-of-the-money calls on the Nikkei, in hopes of making 1,000%-2,000% on his bets. In assessing the outlook for Japan, Klein adds
economic, financial and political analysis to his usual mix of momentum, Elliott Wave theory and time cycles. Briefly, he sees Japan's ongoing banking crisis -- with billions of dollars of bad debts still sitting on balance sheets -- as the nation's biggest problem, for the banking sector, the economy and consumer confidence. Psychologically, fixing the banking mess would outweigh all other known negatives about the Japanese economy and financial system, he insists.

In Klein's view, Japanese consumers, flush with cash, will start to spend again when they believe the debt debacle is being cleared up. "One of these days, the government will mean what it says. The time is now,"
he avers. Moreover, "surprise news, like lowering the corporate tax rate to 40% from 46%, can spark an extremely sharp rally."

In this scenario, a move above 17,500 would bring some of the $10 trillion in savings held by Japanese individuals back into equities. Between here ( 15,267.98 Friday ) and there, Klein sees Japanese corporations and the government carrying the ball, possibly aided by a
short-covering rally "on some juicy piece of good news." Three times between mid-1992 and today, the Nikkei has rallied sharply, only to fall back. These gains have ranged from 27.3%-35.6% over one to two months, to
35.3%-55.6% over seven to nine months. By Klein's analysis, foreigners were overweight Japan above 20,000 because they didn't understand the full magnitude of the debt crisis, and believed the government was committed to solving it. Meanwhile, Japanese corporations and the government were selling. Conversely, now short interest is high, foreigners ( who now doubt the government's resolve ) are underweight
and Japanese institutional players "are major buyers."

The Japanese government, which has a mandate to use public money to revive the banking sector, "is the biggest insider trader around," he says. "That's why [most] foreigners never understand how to read them.
This time, the surprises will be bullish." In his wildest dreams, Klein envisions a year-end 1998 buying panic,"as foreigners and Japanese individuals realize that the government and corporations again have nailed an extreme without them."

The performance of overseas stock markets was geographically mixed last week, with the Pacific Basin ( 10 up, six off ) far outperforming Europe ( 14 off, five up ) . Not surprisingly, the two biggest winners were in
Asia. In local currency terms, Taipei rose 8.95%, Hong Kong 8.55%, in reaction to a strong rise in the yen. This rally defused for now the possibility that China, and by extension Hong Kong, would devalue their currencies. The biggest news event of the week was coordinated
intervention by Japan and the U.S. to prop up the yen, which only a week ago was heading for 150 to the dollar but turned around and hit an intraday high of 133.07 Friday before easing to 134-plus.

The chain of events was as follows: China complained about the falling yen and indicated there were unstated limits to its pledge not to devalue. The Japanese Parliament passed a supplementary budget which
provided extra funds to help the nation's ailing banking system. President Clinton, who was preparing for a state visit to China, phoned Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, and may have hinted that
Washington would help to support the yen if Tokyo first explicitly promised finally to resolve its banking mess. Hashimoto quickly pledged to make every effort to restore his banking system to health and to achieve domestic-led economic growth. Specifically, he said that Japan expeditiously would restructure its financial system, and promptly would dispose of bad loans on bank balance sheets. He added that Japan also would reform both corporate and personal income-tax structures.

Finance Minister Hikaru Matsunaga seconded the motion, pledging to create proper economic conditions for a strong and stable yen, including structural tax reforms. He also said that Japan would move "more aggressively" to help banks dispose of bad loans.

After they spoke their lines in this currency drama, the U.S., for the first time since 1992, on Wednesday joined Japan in intervening to boost the value of the yen against the dollar. Currency speculators, who only six days earlier had seen no upside risk in the yen, were caught off guard and scrambled to unwind short yen positions.

Let the record show that Japan's previous resolve to fix its banking mess has been found sadly lacking. If Tokyo is really serious this time, there's oodles of money to be made in various financial instruments.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 11:48 - ID#26467)
Commodityprice capitulation
FWIW We are now in the final phase wherein the next six months we
will see commodity prices skit to all time lows.February '99
shows the final collapse.We see a repeat of the 7 year currency
crises cycle all the way back to '71.The preceding years where
similar attempts to discredit gold by the IMF and central banks,
to be followed with price collapse and spikes in commodities and gold
in the following two years.Interest rates have a tendency to increase
dramatically during these time slots and usually in advance of commodity
La Nina is coming back that will add fuel to the inflationary fires.
This 88 year sunspot cycle will see a dry spell and cold winters
in the Northern Hemisphere for three years starting as you guess it in '99.In addition having a war cycle coming full circle 2001 the mixture
is volatile to say the least.
Have a nice day.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:05 - ID#372400)
@All cycle followers
Predicting future of anything in the markets on the basis of cycles is
ingnoring "History repeats twice -- once as a tragedy, lastly as a farse".
The repeat of a cycle look to me like a farse staged by those expecting the cycle to repeat itself.

Away -- to the chaos of noncyclical universe.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:06 - ID#402148)
Thanks SPEED.........Heh Cyclist
....doesn't gold move with the rise in bond rates, and then six months later commodities....infering that gold should rally from August on?



(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:09 - ID#360150)
Ed Yardeni views 1973=1999.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:18 - ID#360150)
.. in context of your views would a dramtic rally in soybean prices in the next three weeks accelerate the cycle to a sooner starting point.

The reason I ask is Harmonic Timing, aka, Ernie Quigley makes a good case this is the same setup we had in August 1939, October 1968 and November 1986 in bean cycle.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:18 - ID#39857)
Clowns ruling the planet
Why is every economic rescue package got its arse well and truly
covered with unattainable provisions?. The rescue package has become nothing more than a shot of adrenalin in a critical patient.
.........more blood, more blood, severed jugular worse than thought,
west loosing battle, staring at china super-power in the face,
can it be, they have us screwed, yes and in their favorite
position, while yankie badly hamstrung, CHINA will lead
us to a greater wisdom. be...........
yes, brain is in orbit.
farfel....a drink

(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:22 - ID#360150)
Thomas..... RUBIN
...your are probably right about Rubin. He accomplished 2 things in those statements: 1 ) Demonstration of how quick things will change back without definite action in 3 WEEKS; 2 ) Setting the shorts back up to smash them beyond repair, perhaps even getting the big funds to take it into a L/T YEN/DOLLAR rally.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:31 - ID#360150)
Sid Klein in Barrons...any conjecture on how gold in USD will react if he...
is right?


(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:34 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re your 22:30 last nite
It's nauseating, but you're right. I took a couple of alka seltzers and a big gulp of brandy. Got to go to the store for tequila. An old "friend" said lay low till you see the whites of their eyes- this way you have the best chance. But, no guarantee.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 12:51 - ID#26467)
FWIW.Minor cycle bottom in July for Dec wheat and first week
of August for beans ,and to top out in the fall.
The real fireworks next year.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:15 - ID#286230)
rhody: You say---"but my profits would be taxed at far in excess of
60%..." You have me worried, I am prepared for a max tax of about 62%. How far in excess of 60% do you think it can go?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:26 - ID#373284)
The Coward Erect as see all, do dumb he believes Americans are...

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:27 - ID#26793)
Full text of Tokyo-G7 meeting press release.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:34 - ID#26793)
Malaysia says U.S. should intervene to prop up the ringgit. (you did it for Japan, now for us.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:38 - ID#26793)
Malaysia says give us your money then get out of here.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:46 - ID#433172)
What kind of an economic world would you have , Learner? A kinder and gentler one? In my view the dumb are rewarded and protected too much now,that allows for more and more to exist. Bailout is a word we hear too often. We will be hearing it again soon when the pension funds are crimpped via the deflating DOW. In my view if we do rught we should be rewarded, do wrong be punished, best order for a small planet.
Tantalus-- I've experienced the same eroding of value in the stocks I purchased in the same time period, some are down by half. I'm puzzled too, maybe nobody knows the truth but I have a small hypothesis for some of it. These stocks are held in substancial amounts by some traders, they will hold till the price goes up to a certain level usually. In the meantime they can suppress the price from day to day with a small investment and accumulate more now and then at reduced prices. Like when 70 shares are traded at 80% of market.??? Also when insiders sell cheap "private placement shares". When this finally wrings out we'll be OK, but there will be a time to get out, and I will.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:48 - ID#254269)
Washington Post reports that Johnny Chung accuses Democrats of "knowingly"
solicting illegal campaign funds;

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:49 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re dum
Ain't you got that right. Candy balls feels we are the peons running around for the goodies and he is the dispenser. You know, there ain't nothing like a bulls!ter to get another bullsh!ter. His is due

(Sat Jun 20 1998 13:55 - ID#254269)
Washinton Post Story re Chung; Could someone please check my 13.48 and see
if the link is good ? Thanks. ( I could not access it a second time ) .

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:05 - ID#45173)
Donald: How do you think the Nikkei will respond to the news from G7?
I didn't see anything in the press release that suggests a resolution to the Japanese banking crisis.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:06 - ID#290172)
Devaluations--semi-official thoughts...

"The interest of economists in the response of trade variables to exchange rate changes was motivated by the evolution of the dollar in the 1980s. The failure of the US trade deficit to improve despite a large depreciation of the dollar after 1985 generated a new body of research aimed at determining the impact of exchange rate variability on trade balance adjustment.

Variability seems to impact the ability of exporters to pass through exchange rate changes into dollar import prices. Most of the work in this area was conducted in terms of misalignment. Both static and dynamic imperfect competition models were set up. They led to the introduction of two new concepts: 'pricing to market' and 'hysteresis'."
Exchange Rate Variability & EU Trade
Khalid Sekkat, Nov 1997
Final Report to the Commission EUDGII

This paper provides some intriguing insights into our drama. I'm sorry I can't post the url ( two paragraphs long ) but the paper may be accessed in the Europa dB. {:- ) bbml [sun and water and summer call!]

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:09 - ID#433172)
Broker scammers
Do you know how to set up a scam? Ever scamed some SOB? If you have you know the main thing is to know " what he knows",or can reasonably find out, then work around that.
Last week I put in a market order for 7000 shares of BSC. The broker charged me .02 US more than the market high of the day? Actually, almost .03. That amounts to $140-$210 plus the commission, and this is going on frequently. When I complained they gave me back the .02. To my mind they aren't even smart. This world sure ain't the way it should be but it's still fun and maybe I'll git these guys one of these fine days if I just knew how?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:17 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste'
America seemingly has no clue. What a shame...Oh well, gold and silver are two ways to protect ones self...

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:20 - ID#342315)
Avalon re Post
I did and got it fine. I wonder how much more snaking the DNC etc are going to do. I say-f*** them, Charlie

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:23 - ID#43460)
Two off topic questions:
1 ) Why can't the DNC be prosecuted under the RICO statutes?
2 ) Who is Candy balls?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:24 - ID#342315)
On a full stomach, beans don't sound too good. But after a few weeks w/o even bacon, or you can't remeber when you had a standing rib, you might be glad to have some groundhog. But you better know how to cook it.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:32 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re Candy Balls
That's the head BullSh!ter- BC or bad mouth clinton. Figure this out

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:34 - ID#342315)
gagnrad I forgot
One more fully descriptive term- a lying sack of blivits.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:34 - ID#27341)
Do you mind if i have a punt on the Nikkie for monday, 300+ .

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:36 - ID#290172)
This isn't 'good' summer reading, but...{:-))
Some Multi National Evidence on the Effects of Real Exchange Rates on Output
September, 1997

Chapter 1-Contractionary devaluation

Because, in the long run, nominal devaluations are believed to lead to proportionate increases in prices that leave real exchange rates and economic activity unchanged, analyses of the effects of devaluation on output have usually been confined themselves to short-run effects ( see Lizondo and Montiel ( 1989 ) ) . Contractionary effects are usually modelled as temporary, the outcome of explicitly transitional processes following a single nominal devaluation. For example, devaluation may lead to immediate increases in prices, but because it takes time for nominal wages or the money supply to catch up, real wages and/or real balances decline temporarily and reduce aggregate demand ( Diaz-Alejandro ( 1963 ) , Krugman and Taylor ( 1978 ) ) . Alternatively, devaluation may lead to contractionary increases in the real value of trade deficits ( Krugman and Taylor ( 1978 ) ) or of foreign indebtedness ( Lizondo and Montiel ( 1989 ) ) until trade and balance-sheet adjustments take place.Finally, until price increases return the real exchange rate to its equilibrium level, higher levels of inflation may depress deposits, loanable funds and hence bank credit ( Copelman and Werner ( 1996 ) ) .
BIS Working Paper 48
Steven B. Kamin and Marc Klau
September, 1997
Ciao {:- )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:40 - ID#373284)
I love the line, gold seems to be a hedge!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:42 - ID#255283)
Weekend Thoughts and Smiles: Attitudes towards Public Relations
The father of the first Prussian King, Friedrich der Grosse, was Kurfuerst Friedrich Wilhelm von Brandenburg.

Here is a quote from Friedrich Wilhelm which summarizes how he handled his public relations to his subjects:

"The subject is prohibited to apply the standard of his/her limited view to the actions of the authority."

Plain and simple. If we would have a similar quote from todays feudal oligarchy available, it would probably sound like this:

"Let the fools babble. Ours are the media."

Social sciences and the engineering of public opinion wasn't invented yet in the 18th century.

Of course, Bavaria was always contrarian to these mainstream concepts of exercising power. Our most famous king was Ludwig II. He withdrew into the mountains and built mythological castles, not for humans, but for gods and goddesses. His actions were completely above and beyond public opinion and political and financial realities. Nevertheless: people loved him.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:51 - ID#342315)
Perspective on the scene
If y'all would read more Uncle Remus and concentrate on Br Rabbit's antics, it might help define who is bullsh!ting and who is dependable. I have a source of the material if you have trouble finding it.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:53 - ID#266105)
@Golden Eagle Int'l (MINE) trading halted until July 6

(Sat Jun 20 1998 14:57 - ID#411331)
@ Selby: Taxes in Canada escalate and vary by province. At the moment,
the upper 5 to 6 thousand of my income is being taxed at 50%. I could be faced with
30 and 40 thousand capital gains in 1999 all taxed at 50%+ if the gold
bull kicks in. My overall tax rate would not be 60%, but the tax rate
on the gold investments could very well approach that.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:10 - ID#340302) your 07:05...CENTRAL BANKS, BUSH, AND OTHER THINGS..., you are misinterpreting my earlier post... I ALWAYS believed there is significant central bank manipulation in the gold market. I have made many statements to that effect on numerous occasions.

My argument is that the average DOW investor ( who may convert to goldbugism in a financial panic ) is probably NOT aware of such CB manipulation. He is unaware of which gold companies are hedged and which are unhedged. In general, he probably has very little downside info pertaining to gold ( In order to illustrate this point, then look at today's technology stocks. One of the reasons tech stocks are soaring to astronomical P/E levels relates to the fact that the average investor has next to NO substantive knowledge about technology stocks' downside. In fact, over time, he has learned that if it's hi-tech, then 400% or better in appreciation is quite common this decade. Since tech stocks are the rage of the Nineties, then anything with a hi-tech sounding name has been the recipient of huge investment inflows, independent of the fundamental merits of the company. There really has been very little selectivity or discrimination on the part of the average investor ) .

In financial panic involving the triumvirate of American Faith ( Dollar, US industrial equities, and bonds ) , non-goldbug investors should most likely dump their funds into anything with the word "GOLD" attached to it. They will NOT have sufficient time to educate themselves as to which assets are superior...physical or gold stocks...hedged or unhedged...whether or not CB's manipulate the gold market, etc.

The avalance of monies into PM's should cause % increases never witnessed before.

With respect to former Prez Bush and Barrick: no harm done. It was simply a mountain made out of a mole-hill by a Kitcoite who has a personal problem with me. I am accustomed to such childish behavior on this forum and could care less.



(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:16 - ID#258142)
Bill Buckler, yesterdays 21:38
I have found your yesterdays 21:38 message only now - it was a bit late in Europe, when you post it. Thanks for reply.
I agree 100% with your statement: "On Wednesday and Thursday, it's true that Gold was going up in $US terms and was falling against most other currencies. It's not true today though. Today, Gold went up against ALL currencies. " I will be glad, if it was a change in trend. But on the other hand, it might be only a reflection of uncertainty, caused by coming G-7 meeting. Next week will show

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:17 - ID#427357)

Internationally-acclaimed market analyst and author is particularly brilliant this week in the generous sharing of his vast financial knowledge. Moreover, his sharp wit makes for an entertaining read. Following are brief excerpts from his this week's report.

"Currencies crash in Thailand, and in Indonesia you can now get three pounds of sugar, one pound of coffee, one bottle of wine and a wife for only ten US dollars." Hello, TWA Airlines? When's the next flight to South-East Asia?

"and Pfizer considers adopting as its motto, "Viagra is a pill men can stand up for!"

On a more serious vane, "WHY THE IMF SHOULD BE ABOLISHED."

"The International Monetary Fund needs to be horsewhipped on television, worldwide, for raising taxes instead of having correctly linked paper currencies to gold."

"Kill the IMF." - ( Dines was trying to get into Tolerant1's good graces ( :- ) )

"More than half of the IMF's borrowers between 1965 and 1995 were no better off than when they started. A third were actually poorer. Almost all were deeper in debt."

Full report at URL below - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

Sodium Chloride
(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:24 - ID#289259)
To Avalon
Your hot link to the Washington Post worked for me. Very interesting!
Thank you.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:31 - ID#43460)
chas re blivits and Selby re taxes
Sorry, chas, I don't think that yuo'd get fair value worth of blivit from anyone related with the DNC. In a five pound sack they'd only give you 3 1/2 pounds.

Selby, It can get worse. I found some interestingly euphamistic tax links from various and sundry places including Norway and Sweden. Very slick. how about a 4.95% payroll tax, but then they slip in another 33+% of employer paid tax, a 25% sales tax and a mandatory payment into private insurance...well over 60% total but they only count 30% as being 'taxes'. I could dimly see paying high taxes though in a country where everybody is more or less related and they have a strong shared ethos and a strong work ethic, but how many people do you see emigrating to Scandinavia? IMHO

As for taxes on gold, at least in the US, the government can seize any assets on any pretext, so try to always bury the bill of sales/proof of purchase with the gold for rax purposes. ( 8-^] ) ( joke, you y2k guys )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:37 - ID#43460)
sodium chloride
NaCl: Is it pronounced Nakul? ( %-^] ) What an interesting handle, but for a gold forum why didn't you pick NaCN, so you could dissolve gold? FAIK salt won't dissolve any of the pms, but I suppose it is good for melting the ice.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:38 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re blivits
You got that right. I forgot about the cheating bastards. A good one to you

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:39 - ID#190411)
@ Herr Beethooven AKA Herr Vronsky,
Who are you?
Why didn't you answer me when I asked whether RANGY's difficulties were due to the Marsfontein dispute?
Remember readers,
Always drop the money when attempting to collect on polarbear's touts
FU, and the horse you rode in on.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:41 - ID#342315)
ganrad et al
There's a reasonably good hiding place for pm etc. If you want to know-email me

(Sat Jun 20 1998 15:45 - ID#190411)
I surely liked your off topic post of teaching children to make metal castings.
Do that some more.
Argentum down for a couple of weeks/ Aurum opposite.
223 - gentleman.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 16:10 - ID#286230)
Geez rhody you had me wondering why I was doing this. As I recall the max tax in Ontario ( including the Feds portion ) is now down to 48% and that with the remaining Provincial tax reduction to come it later this year will be down a bit more. The Capital Gains tax is considerably less up to about the first 100 000 then it gets to the 48 % as well. Too high but then I'd rather have to pay it than not and we should not forget the free brain surgery that we pay for with it.

Gangrad: I live in near Toronto and as far as I know there is no history of gold confiscation in the land of ice and snow--of course with the high taxes few have any gold anyway.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 16:12 - ID#215208)
Hope springs eternal.

Gold - Had to fine tune the gold channel to accommodate the low point, but it still is a good fit to the recent lows. A nice bounce, along with silver. I would like to see gold touch the channel top, now around $309. At that time I will probably exit all gold positions, including stock. I will be watching carefully where gold is at the time silver next touches the channel bottom. If it stops well above the recent low, I will see this as a sign a new bull in gold has started. If not, by that time the channel bottom might well be down to the level of the lows around year-end.

Silver - Had to adjust the channel slope to accommodate the low on Monday. As I thought, the channel I last posted, which was defined by Friday's London fix was a little too steep. The new slope is almost identical to the last time silver made a run up. For reference, I have used the same channel width. It seems likely to me that we will see resistance around the top of the previous downward channel, or perhaps at the line ( shown in red ) connecting the recent peaks during the move down. This resistance would be in the 5.50-5.60 range. This agrees with the last posting I saw of APH's, in which he was predicting a pull back from this level. I'll probably exit silver at this point and wait for the pullback, hopefully to reenter when it reaches the channel bottom. But maybe it won't drop this far before heading for the channel top. Must allow for this possibility.

Platinum - Well, it did bounce as expected. I adjusted the channel position to Monday's low. Now we must wait for clues that this really is a new bull move, not just a countertrend rally.

Palladium - Seems to have seeked out its long-standing upward trend line. As long as it holds to this, I think platinum will continue in the new upward channel I defined.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 16:23 - ID#43460)
chas re records, Erle re castings
chas, there ain't none, which is why I keep imaculate records and have an accountant who's a former IRS agent. And I think that on the whole, considering water damage and other factors a bank vault is still safer at least for me. IMHO

Erle, sorry, but nothing new to report, except that the cuttlefish molds work really well considering how low tech they are. The kids have been working on it sporatically. I have a couple of big metal arts projects going but on the low temperature investment casting project ( American lead free pewter using a modified sand casting technique ) I had three moldmaking failures in one day and have been sulking since. I might fish out some wax models ( kept in water next to the air conditioner ) and work on them this weekend. To be honest, most of the art stuff I do uses tools that it has taken me years to make using lots of time and effort. One has to struggle to find easy things like the hammered coin rings and cuttlefish castings.

There is another thing that I taught my kids when they were Cub Scout or Brownie Scout age, that is making piercework. All that is needed for a basic piercework candle lamp is a tin can, a nail, a towel, safety glasses, a hammer and an adult to supervise.

The tin can is filled with water and frozen. If you're worried about bulges you freeze an inch in the bottom, then another inch and so forth until full. It is laid on the side on the towel and with the hammer and nail whatever pattern desired is pierced into it. Little kids like to make circles, rows, x's stars and crosses mostly. Safety issues of course are watching for sharp metal, using a small enough hammer so they can weild it safely and not mash fingers, using fat nails which won't bend and fly off, proper angles ( adult should practice so they know where the dangers lie ) and wearing adequate eye protection. ( Really little kids can hammer while the adult holds the nail-ouch. ) When all is done the ice can be melted and then the adult can put in and light a candle, which will shine through the holes. IMHO, educational use, not advising, etc. usual disclaimers apply.

We should hope Steve has more to report on his Star of David coin soon. By now he's possibly developed some more ideas. Which distinguishes the pros from us amateurs. ( 8-^] )

John Disney__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 16:47 - ID#24135)
Hold it
Erle ..
Im not Polarbear .. but I can tell you
that rangold problems have nothing to do
with marsfontein. As I understand, this
has been settled and Rangold will collect
about 10 mill US. They had it valued at
zero in their NAV.
Their problem is waiting for the Syama
mine to start making money in Mali and
all the up front costs. RRS ... rangold
resources makes up half their assets.
Rangold are now selling at about half their
asset value.
As I recall, Vronsky recommended 3
RSA stocks .. Rangold, Dbn Deep, and
Harmony. Harmony tripled and has now
fallen back to about twice where it was
at the time it was recommended. Same
for Deeps.. Rangy did badly so far. Two
out of three aint bad .. If you bought
all three you'd be smiling instead of
screaming. I bought mainly Harmony.. so
I have no problem .. but I still hold a
little rangold myself .. Its about all I
have now .. rest is cash.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:06 - ID#228128)
Hey Erle
Are you below the legal age, not responsible for your own actions. If not bugger off. If so bugger off anyway.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:16 - ID#263254)
Re: Squirrel's Sat Jun 20 1998 00:08 post
Holy s...t! You didn't purchase any of this stuff with one

of those supermarket discount cards did you? Unless you

did the phony 2-step on the application, they gotcha.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:26 - ID#263254)
I take back my last comment. You sell PM's

next to canned food? Truly one stop shopping.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:30 - ID#343259)
@Cherokee tx fer sites

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:37 - ID#287186)
Rhody & ALL - re Past Pres. Bush and Gold Sales
Does anyone have a subscription to the WSJ online interactive where you could search back 9 to 10 years ago for verification of this item that I got in an e-mail as a response to a discussion topic in a Libertarian NG.

" Well, I read about the first big Bush Gold sale in the Wall Street Journal back when it happened. It was only a 2"-3" article, but I remember thinking it should be a front page story. It was a short time, very short, after Bush was elected. Over one-third of the Ft. Knox Gold was sold by Bush & Baker to cover bad South American debt. Almost another third has been sold since-a little more than half of it in the Bush years."

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:40 - ID#227168)
Some kind of dance
When listening to Droopy Doop Doops you usually get duped ---Away to loop de loop

(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:42 - ID#45173)
Y2K Baseline Report
Have a friend who works for a company that sells Y2K bug-fix software for mainframes. The company has 97% market share. Although he's been with this company for a couple of years, he's been selling these products for only six weeks, so his exposure is limted to date. Here's his assessment so far. But first, a few Y2K bug definitions:

"A" bugs: if not fixed, the company cannot operate
"B" bugs: if not fixed, the company can operate but at significantly decreased efficiency. If not fixed within a reasonable period, the company to fail
"C" bugs: if not fixed, the company can operate at somewhat decreased efficiency. Fixes not urgent.

In terms of frequency and work effort required to fix, bug types have the following distribution:
"A" bugs 10%
"B" bugs 20%
"C" bugs 70%

My friend feels that by the end of next year, Y2K bug fix efforts relative to mainframe software will yield the following results:

A bugs: 90% completed
B bugs: 10% completed
C bugs: 5% completed

Let's see how his assessment changes as he gets more experience.


(Sat Jun 20 1998 17:43 - ID#287186)
Bingo - no supermarket discount "big brother" card - I don't trust 'em
I buy groceries from a smaller outfit that needs the business. Cash or check. I know the check leaves a trail too.
I am curious though. What do you mean by "they gotcha"? I am paranoid enough as it is. I know the megachains want to know my buying habits but now am I to assume that the feds will add my grocery buying records to my dossier ( if I use one of those cards}?

There was a fella that responded to an NRA pitch to buy more guns with the rebuttal that "Why buy more if they are gonna confiscate them anyway?" Same argument applies to Gold that they have a paper trail on or a stoolie for or that you haven't buried well enough.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:03 - ID#248170)
I love gold too much, much more diamond. If one man he marry me I want he buy gold for me. My lady everywhere in the world, I want you ask your husband or your boyfriend buy gold for you. Is I know you so beautiful when you wear gold.

G o G ol d and Supanee ( Lady Love Gold )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:10 - ID#287186)
Each of us shall become an Oracle for the masses
Since we have each individually and collectively started to develop a reputation for knowing something about Gold, Stocks, Y2K, Survival preparations, etc. As the doom starts to sink in to the masses we will become increasingly sought out for our advice. My e-mail is beginning to show this trend. Same for walk-in traffic in my store. We will increasingly do it to each other with requests for info about which there have been comments and urls posted several or many times here.
I am starting to develop a standard cyber handout to post excerpts from and a paper version to hand out to others. Any other ideas?

Long-time Kitcoites please pardon the following digression for you already know this stuff. But for lurkers, etc. that do not.

With Netscape Communicator I can organize my bookmarks into folders labeled whatever I wish. I collect lots of bookmarks. The Gold stuff goes in the Gold folder, Survival stuff in the Survival folder. Same for Y2K, Astronomy, Libertarian, etc. I would rather not have to ask the kind folks here for info that has been posted a few times already. Newcomers {and I've been here for only a few months} don't have the option of their own collection of bookmarks gleaned from these pages. And as we all realize, reading back through a month of Kitco posts would take a week!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:12 - ID#253153)
A view from Hiroshima ---Japan-- part 4
I'm posting a different view as to why gold goes up in deflation. A bust
usually follows a boom . Deflation has begun and will accelerate as time passes. It is hard to remember bad times after a prolonged period of prosperity. Prices of certain sensitive commodities are declining as well as interest rates. The US economy is beginning to slow. The GM strike is accelerating deflation and many people are being laid off. A crisis is brewing with all currencies floating . Now the Dow is declining and people are realizing that corporate profits are also declining. Gold has been sought as a store of value during times of crisis. During a deflationary crisis, property will lose its value and be repossessed by mortgage lenders when payments can not be made. Unemployment will soar and it will be more difficult to pay off debts. Businesses will fail and profits will turn to losses. Deflation will create a different set of problems, but as long as there are severe problems gold will flourish. A crisis will still be present. During such a time gold shouls be sought as a heaven against adversity and its purchasing power stands to gain as other prices fall. Additionally, with a decline in prices, the costs of mining gold should fall as well. Industrial demand will suffer during such a period because the price of gold will appear expensive. However, investors with faith in gold are likely to buy more as they lose faith in other forms of investment.
Circumstances today are different in that the price of gold will find its own level on the open market and presumably will not be purchased at current level for monetary transactions as was the case in the 1930's.
So gold will not appear to have the stable value which it held in those days, but would rise substantially further in price. The chaos created by alternating past inflation and current deflation will create a movement to restore gold to the throne of the monetary system. Gold mining stocks currently do not appear to be discounting deflation which means A MAJOR move is ahead. God bless.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:35 - ID#269191)
Farfel: A True Goldbug.
Will not miss any of the next upmove because he believes one should
always hold a core position in the metal. True goldbugs have no faith
in paper and believe gold is the only real money.

Non-goldbugs are the ones who will miss most of the upmove and invest
at the top as they did in 1980. If you recall as I do the long lines
in front of coin dealers in January of 1980, then you know what
I am talking about.

Lacking sophistication in sound economic principles, the non-goldbug
will fall for the lies of government officals and either believe the
problems will go away and not buy gold or leave their gold positions
too early before the problems are truly fixed. On the other hand, goldbugs will maintain their gold positions until honest money and
sound banking are restored.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:35 - ID#256326)
Would gold go up in deflation if the currency were convertible to gold? We need to get this concept clearly in mind. In fact the currency and the gold would have greater purchasing power as other assets fell in price.

But we are all mesmerized by the rise of gold and gold stocks in the 1930's which was entirely due to devaluation of the world's currencies and de-coupling of gold and the US dollar. Gold went up because the dollar ( and every other currency ) was devalued. Since US citizens couldn't own gold to protect themselves, and since the gold share market was tiny, Homestake had a nice run.

None of the above factors true in 1933 is now true. Gold will go up in a devaluation of the dollar as it has in Thai baht or Phillipine pesos or Australian dollars. This will be some comfort but not a terribly good investment. Plus the precedent of forbidding investors to protect themselves by making gold ownershipo illegal is just too vivid not to repeat. If you own gold illegally, in what way will it be useful for commerce?

Homestake did well in the 1930's also because the US Treasury still bought gold and paid a higher price than before. I don't see a repeat this time if we have deflation.

These are some reasons why I believe the "deflationist goldbugs" have got it all wrong. You can be a deflationist or you can be a goldbug, but you can't logically be both.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 18:49 - ID#256326)
But those who think that US bonds would be the ultimate investment in a credit collapse deflation have a big awakening coming too. The US long bond fell from ~97 in 1930 to ~66 in 1933.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:02 - ID#256326)
In deflation you cannot have the luxury of being an investor. You must be a very astute speculator and have the legal freedom to move from one speculation to another, neither of which is very common or very likely.

If you believe deflation is coming soon, you'd best forget about gold until devaluation looks about to happen, and you'd better start studying very hard the art and science of short selling of stocks, bonds, and commodities.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:13 - ID#432157)

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:20 - ID#252150)
REIFY@Thanks for offer to discuss Y2K, but I really don't have the time
or experise. I don't doubt that there will be some disruptions & some Companies will fail, but am tired of the sensationalism & wild hype ( e.g
airplanes falling out of the sky & autos not starting ) hence my disparaging "wildly overblown".

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:25 - ID#256326)
this was posted earlier...................

Saturday June 20, 5:15 am Eastern Time
FULL TEXT - Statement from G7/Asia finance meeting
TOKYO, June 20 ( Reuters ) - The following is the full text of a closing statement from the meeting in Tokyo on Saturday of senior Group of Seven ( G7 ) financial officials, their counterparts from 11 Asia nations and officials from multinational institutions.
------------------------PRESS RELEASE-------------------------
Joint Manila Framework/G7D Meeting

Tokyo, Japan

June 20, 1998

1. An ad-hoc joint Manila framework/G7 Deputies meeting was held in Tokyo on June 20, 1998. Finance and/or Central Bank Deputies representing Australia, Canada, People's Republic of China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR of China, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States attended the meeting. Senior representatives from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank also participated in the meeting.

2. In the regional surveillance discussion, Deputies exchanged views on the economic situation on the basis of presentation by the IMF, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. They recognized that in some countries, notably Korea and Thailand, progress has been made in the implementation of economic reform programs, despite recent turmoil in financial markets in the region. They agreed that in countries most affected by the crisis, it is important to restore confidence and growth, achieve stability of exchange rates and contain inflation. Microeconomic reforms, particularly those to restructure and recapitalize the financial and non-financial corporate sectors, and continued market opening are vital to restoration of confidence, renewed investment and sustainable economic growth.

3. Deputies recognized that restructuring and revitalization of Japanese economy and financial system is urgently needed. It is of vital importance to Japan, to the recovery of Asia, particularly those countries affected by financial market turbulence, and to the entire world economy, that Japan restore its banking system to health, achieve domestic demand-led growth, open and deregulate its markets. In this context, they welcomed recent announcements by Japan of its determination to restructure its financial system as a matter of highest urgency, including the prompt disposal of bad assets, to accelerate the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package, and to reform both corporate and individual income tax structures. They emphasized the importance of concrete action to implement these plans quickly.

4. Deputies also welcomed China's reiteration of its firm commitment to maintain the stability of the renminbi. They noted that this makes an important contribution to financial stability in the region.

5. Deputies welcomed Indonesia's renewed commitment to economic reform and the planned political reforms announced thus far. They stressed the importance of an early agreement with the IMF on an economic and structural reform program.

6. Deputies discussed financial and exchange market and macroeconomic developments. In the context of Japan's plan to strengthen its economy, they welcomed the joint action in the exchange markets by the Japanese and United States authorities. They agreed to monitor developments closely and to cooperate as appropriate.

7. Deputies stressed the importance of addressing the social consequences of the crisis. They welcomed the flexibility the IMF has shown in adjusting fiscal targets so as to underpin economic activity, cushion the effects of price rises on the most vulnerable elements of societies and allow for increased social expenditure. They also welcomed the effects of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and bilateral donors to mitigate the social costs of the crisis and help economies strengthen their social safety nets.

8. Deputies agreed that while it is imperative to strengthen policy responses to short-run cr?????es, it is also necessary that attention not be distracted from longer-term challenges of strengthening the international financial systems, and devising more effective means of crisis management with an appropriate role for private sector financing.

9. Deputies unanimously thank the Japanese Government for its warm hospitality and excellent arrangements. Deputies of the Manila framework meeting are looking forward to their next meeting in Malaysia.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:28 - ID#39857)
Russia wants IMF loan conditions watered down.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:30 - ID#252150)
John D.@exchange rates. Everytime I try to be a little optimistic you assualt me
with another dose of cold, hard logic ( smiley ) . I guess I think too short term re: currency manipulations. You are right, of course, that the fundamentals will eventually out. I think my assessment of a couple weeks ago is probably accurate. They are totally, irrevocably fuc*ed.

Off to have a beer & mellow out. This reality sucks!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:33 - ID#263254)
Adding to the paranoia...
You lurk, and you learn. Those grocery cards seem innocent enough...

I wouldn't bank on it, though.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:39 - ID#227238)
Aurophile: The question of de/inflation probably cannot be viewed in isolation. That is to say, that the future course of events will be heavily influenced by the actions of an activist government. One bent on maintaining the present system under all costs and events.

The burden of federal debt service will weigh heavily, as corporate and stock market profits begin their inevitable decline - and as fat tax revenues disappear - the burden service federal debt will become crushingly intolerable.

It is federal action during this course of events that we must pay attention to. Likely, the feds will follow the Japanese strategy with equally pitiable result. ....... Set the money creation machine on turbo and see what happens?

Debt burden in Japan resides largely in the banking system. As I understand it. The largest portion of debt ( plus unfunded liabilities ) in the US, resides in the federal realm. In Japan, the banks have avoided dealing with the problem; with full connivance of the BOJ and the MOF. The US fed does not have the same luxury. The problem is in their back pocket. Avoidance is not a luxury available to them.

I guess the point I am trying to make, poorly, is that the ultimate course of events will not likely fit into neatly defined labels of inflation or deflation........ The term, "meltdown" might be appropriate though.

Bully Beef
(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:44 - ID#259282)
Mega mart wants to know how much toilet paper you use.
As silly as that sounds they do. They want to know if you have fears. How much deodorant do you use? Is he addicted to mouthwash? How often does he brush his teeth? He is worried if women think he stinks? How can we exploit this fear? What new product can we invent that we know he is susceptable to buybecause of this fear? Buy Fart StopTM!!!!!!We know 3million people a day are worried a day about farting in public and would buy this product. FART STOP ....NOW!!!!!!
This is the truth. Please don't exploit me. We are all so easy to manipulate. People get paid to do it. They are good at it. Have a nice day!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:44 - ID#252150)
Aurophile&Earl@After reading your gloomy epistles I will need
several beers to mellow out.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:50 - ID#339212)
Bully Beef,

I use several of those discount supermarket cards to
obtain an overall 10% discount, but when I sign up I never
give them my true name or address. I respect the PRIVACY ACT.
All they know is that someone is buying a product, not
traceable to me.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:51 - ID#374204)
rhody' 9:42 & George's 13:46 - Thanks
Your comments much appreciated. Will advise my freind
to hang tough. Besides, if one knew all the answers, it
would take away all the fun.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:54 - ID#256326)
All too true. The blather is about deflation as if that is something which is a one decision prospect. What they would get is actually a credit collapse which requires nerves of steel and nearly super-human speculating powers. Guns and gold won't cut it.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:56 - ID#244418)
this sounds mildly positive
6. Deputies discussed financial and exchange market and macroeconomic developments. In the context of Japan's plan to strengthen its economy, they welcomed the joint action in the exchange markets by the Japanese and United States authorities. They agreed to monitor developments closely and to cooperate as appropriate.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:56 - ID#263254)
Bully Beef @ mega mart
Your right on. They want to know who's buying what,
when, where, how. My take on it is that this information is
not necessarily held within the structure of the "mega mart".
Call me paranoid, but please, don't call me stupid.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:57 - ID#256326)
Of course I do not think Kitco style deflation or a credit collapse is in the cards. But it's been a long day, and it's time for FUN!!! bbml.
(Sat Jun 20 1998 19:58 - ID#434108)
The viper's hiss: 'from the G7/Asia finance meeting, 6/20/98:)
""....7. Deputies stressed the importance of addressing the social consequences of the crisis. They

welcomed the flexibility the IMF has shown in adjusting fiscal targets so as to underpin economic

activity, cushion the effects of price rises on the most vulnerable elements of societies and allow for

increased social expenditure. They also welcomed the effects of the World Bank, the Asian

Development Bank and bilateral donors to mitigate the social costs of the crisis and help economies

strengthen their social safety nets. ... ""

If any of you saw my earlier post: "IMF Orphans..." - identifying the spreading tragedy of parents placing their children in orphanages, until they can find jobs -and food- again.....

you now have a very clear, vivid, unforgettable image of the contrast of the liars with the truth:

IMF-mongers, and Central-Bank/G7/"leaders" can spout all the wishful thinking, post-poning-rhetoric of deceit & manipulation they

may yet wish to perpetrate on the world. But the teeming

masses of the common, decent & independent men and women

of this planet -- who are the very soul -- the very fertile,

fervent, and freedom-loving -- soul of humanity -- will

increasingly reach a point of outrage, indignation, and being victimized, exploited, reduced to poverty

and servitude, and even separated from the seed of their

very life-blood, their own cherished children, and

their posterity.

The lies, mis-information, and politicians/managers/experts'

reassurances notwithstanding: ... the chickens are coming home

to roost.... the dirt WILL come out in the wash.... the

fooling of 'mother-nature' for generations.... the world is beginning to find out how seemingly unmerciful mother-natrure will have

to be - to set things right.

It is not right that the meek, humble, and innocent suffer

so much...even to the point of having to give up

their own children.

Ultimately the very 'tops' of our modern civilization's version

of the tower of babble -- those instituions & power-brokers

that pretend they can govern & manage this greed-ridden,

fear-based world.....where

artificial currencies, fractional-reserve banking,

and special interests..... pretend that they can 'rule the day'.

Rule the 'day' they might...

but in the quiet night, where passion, humility, love and

surrender ....

triumph ... once again .... in sweet union ...

there will be born ....

in the womb of woman

and the seed of man


the creative spark, unyielding hope & healing love

of human-kind



that it will be free....

and free to flourish.

Liberty's creation and passion for itself cannot, ultimately,

be denied.

No matter the false money & banking systems that export

corrupt specie and exploit millions to the avarice of

the dictator of 'interest/debt-payment due'...

humanity will reach it's boiling point, it's point of no return.

The false prophets of masquerade and malevolence will topple

hardest of all.

And a Titanic global-economy will find it's only life-boats in gold.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:06 - ID#253153)
Aurophile--A response to your questions
1. I do agree with you that tha dollar will be devalued if we hit a depression against foreign currencies.
2. Domestically, both the dollar and gold purchasing power will increase during a depression.
3. I'm not a gold bug and never was. My only interest in gold is for safety
and capital appreciation in the world of floating currencies.
4. Gold probably will NOT rise if the US currency was convertible into gold ( now IT'S NOT ) .
5. Between 1331-1932 the long US treasury bond yield rose from 4.5% to 5.5%. The bond yield decline between 1933- 1940 from 5.5% to
6. In 1930 there was great deal of liquidity , and there isn't now. True,
thousands of banks went bankrupt during the '30s. But those were mostly country banks that were overextended. Today, the problem is with the BIG banks that are overextended.There was so much
liquidity during two years of the depression that banks paid a negative
interest rate of 1% to hold their money in treasuries. There was no place else to put it because there was no BUSINESS EXPANSION.
I hope this will clear my opinion.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:12 - ID#43349)
The prime interest rate in Japan is a little over one percent, in the
US over five. Money flees Japan.

The corporate tax rate in Japan is about 46%. There is no incentive to
produce goods and services.

Raise the interest rate and lower the tax burden.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:12 - ID#228128)
Aurophile - on point 3 of the news release
The Japanese parliment ( Duma ) is out of session, elections are in July, and parliment will not reconvene until the fall. So much for quick and decisive action. For that matter, the whole release sort of sounds like a feel good message with no teeth.

Bully Beef
(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:20 - ID#259282)
Manufacturerers typically buy client lists from your local MEGA-MART.
Proctor and Gamble and all the biggies do. Dole, Green Giant they all want information about your personal buying habits. If ther gobrunment wants the info all they gots to do is pay for it. I don't know as they do but they could.
Only other thing I could add to discussion is that I am taxed too high to buy physical gold. If I buy a gold coin I pay 15% on top of purchase price. You can't make a profit with the government taking that kind od crack at you. Therefore a fund is the only way for me to invest. I should look at one that only buys physical.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:23 - ID#183109)
ERLE the cry baby
gERLE, to your whining of late:

Would you like my social security number and credit card numbers or what? Do you want to send Mr. Vronsky a unibomber package? Get a clue. Gold at 299 and you cant figure why RANGY is down a bit? Are you serious or just stoned?

If you cant stand the heat of a 30% drop in a massively leveraged South African mining company, then you had absolutely no business buying it in the first place. You should put your money in glass jars and bury them in your back yard.

I now have twice as much RANGY in my portfolio as when John Disney and I wrote the Randgold article for golden eagle, meaning I continued to buy AFTER I wrote about it, and I paid the same price for it as you. Only difference is that Im buying more at this price, and you undoubtedly are the type to buy high and sell low, so the odds are that Im now buying your shares. And youll probably buy them back from me or others here when we are selling at 4 bucks. Apparently you are the type of idiot who blindly reads about stocks on the net, and buys them without doing your own due diligence. Had you done your own research, youd be buying more RANGY at these give away prices, instead of whining to group here.

Grow up and take some responsibility for your OWN decisions.

As Mr. Disney just pointed out, RANGY is now selling for about HALF its Net Asset Value. And its the only stock John still chooses to own. Do you even know what NAV means?

Best of luck following the crowd. Are you using your RANGY proceeds to buy Microsoft?


(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:33 - ID#253153)
Just one more comment regarding gold vs currencies.
In this deflationary phase gold will rise against all currencies ( including the dollar ) and that process may already have begun. It wil rise more against some currencies and less against others ( those with partial gold backing ) .

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:45 - ID#347447)
JP - I just came aboard, so I don't know what you've posted much beyond a few entries, but you say that in 1930 there was all this "liquidity" with nowhere to put it because there was no "business expansion." But how does that square with the fact that the US Money Stock shrank by 33% from 1929 to 1933? Where did all that "liquidity go? And must the money supply not have been shrinking already by 1930? It is an acknowledged blunder of the Federal Reserve during the depression that the money stock was allowed to shrink by so much, thus deepening and prolonging the recession ( according to some monetarists ) . Of what did this "liquidity" you speak of consist? Thanks for pointing out anything I've missed.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 20:58 - ID#253153)
Mike Sheller--My response to your question
Yes, the money supply declined in the 30's by about 30-35% because of massive bankruptcies. When I speak of liquidity, I'm talking about the big commercial banks in the US. None of the large US banks defaulted
or went into bankruptcy. They lost some money but had AMPLE RESERVES and were able to survive. Also, because there was no business expansion , whatever money people made, they saved it. The long deflationary period produced enough savings that by 1940 our government was able to enter into WW 2 to get us out of the depression.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:01 - ID#347447)
You said: " Lacking sophistication in sound economic principles, the non-goldbug will fall for the lies of government officals and either believe the problems will go away and not buy gold or leave their gold positions too early before the problems are truly fixed. On the other hand, goldbugs will maintain
their gold positions until honest money and sound banking are restored."

It seems to me that all those unwashed unsophisticates have been believing government, et all, thruout this paper bull market and have paid the price with obscene profits, while sophisticated investors who know that gold is the only true money have been smugly entrenched as the financial elite, despite having had their fortunes more than simply decimated. If goldbugs who bought in 1979 and 1980 or at the tops in '87 or '83, have been holding and waiting "until honest money and sound banking are restored," I certainly hope they haven't been holding their breaths. Crowd psychology is important, and perhaps a more objective look at the subjective nature of human group decision making is in order. In the end, the market is the one that is right, and there are times when even goldbugs, though they may worship at the temple of the True God, can be very wrong in a crowded world that includes other people.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:19 - ID#360150)
Did you see the SEPERATE news release by the LDP that they will have a bridge bank plan in palce by July 8th?


(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:23 - ID#259400)
Words of boundless wisdom. The long and the short of it is this. Gold is not an investment. Gold is a trader's play. Play the upside swings and you make money. Play the downside swings and you lose money. Over the last 20 years the swings have been basically down. The short sellers have made noeny and the longs have lost. I see no reason to believe the trend will change. GOLD IS NOT MONEY. GOLD IS A COMMODITY.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:37 - ID#259400)
Can't spell tonight. Should have been money. In any event gold is not an INVESTMENT. Gold is a TRADER'S PLAY. Trade the swings you do well. Buy and hold you lose your butt.
(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:40 - ID#434108)
for historical 'perspective': "experts" predictions for U.S. stock market top in Sept. '96

(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:44 - ID#368244)

The fact you see no reason, is why there is every reason. What is money?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:44 - ID#43460)
Selby re Canadians and their government
Your comment about Canadians and their government matches my limited observations which is why if I ever did get paranoid enough to bury gold I'd do so in a Canadian National Park. IMHO from the ones I've worked with were/are all pleasant,kindhearted and much less bitter and vindictive than a lot of the locals. The ones I know say they moved down to the US south or midwest primarily to get away from the cold and secondarily for the business opportunities and beautiful American women but none of them have ever mentioned political freedom. The ones I know tell me that many aspects of 'Merkan society are more negative than Canada, the primary exception to this being the medical care system. IMHO
(Sat Jun 20 1998 21:56 - ID#434108)
(from IBD:)
Be sure to read "Investor's Business Daily", and especially their

6/19/98 edition, with its front page article titled as above.

IMHO: This scandalous, "Neville-Chamberlain-like" selling-out to the Chinese power-structure, by our current administration, is a give-away, not only of our sophisticated, strategic technology, but also - it is a give-away of our national security...and.... a politically-motivated sacrifice....of.... our nation's sacred honor.

This is just my opinion.

The article was published in Investor's Business Daily newspaper, 6/19/98.

I believe their url is:

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:03 - ID#286230)
Your Canadian associates who speak ill of the health system here may also explain 2 other things that I have had brought to my notice since tuning into Kitco about 2 years ago

First I have never heard a Canadian complain about the health system here. I have read maybe 5 times that someone had a problem getting specialized treatment and went to the US--sells papers I guess but nobody in my 55 years has ever said to me they would prefer the system be dismantled and we go back to private insurance. Now I may know why--all the complainers left for the south: ) . Also the "free" health care gets cut off after you leave Canada for 6 months so the need to come back from sunny Arizona might grate on the 75 year oldsters I guess.

Second the misinformation the US folks have about the health system is about as all encompassing as it gets. First and foremost you get to pick you own physician you don't assigned to one as is posted here every time the topic comes up. The fact is that any Party that tries to rationalize the health care in any province gets watched like a hawk and any cut back is suicidal--face it we love it.

But before I get into the sights of the anitsocialism crowd around here I 'll leave it at that.
(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:04 - ID#434108)
IBD: "An Inside Job at Commerce" - "Satellite Secrets Left Dept. w/ Offricial"
Date: Sat Jun 20 1998 21:56 ( ( from IBD: ) ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 Inc. All rights reserved
Be sure to read "Investor's Business Daily", and especially their

6/19/98 edition, with its front page article titled as above.

IMHO: This scandalous, "Neville-Chamberlain-like" selling-out to the Chinese
power-structure, by our current administration, is a give-away, not only of our sophisticated,
strategic technology, but also - it is a give-away of our national security...and.... a
politically-motivated sacrifice....of.... our nation's sacred honor.

This is just my opinion.

The article was published in Investor's Business Daily newspaper, 6/19/98.

I believe their url is:

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:08 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
Selby: I am a Canadian citizen. I certainly would prefer a return to private health insurance. Now you HAVE heard of one.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:09 - ID#290336)
1930's and the value of a dollar
I was born in 1930 and grew up in the aftermath of the depression. Money in the 30's was virtually non-existant. Anyone who had a job was envied and if you had cash you were truly blessed. In 1936 two storey houses in the Canadian mid-west were offered for $600. They weren't selling because there were no buyers. Housing lots were $1.00 but no one would be fool enough to buy them because the yearly taxes were $15.00. People were happy but had to make do. Life went on!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:14 - ID#411163)
aurophile-I think the 1930 and the 1990's will be much different
The US$ was gold then. Now its paper IUO's. Homestake Mining rose 580%
in 4 years, not bad. Consider in 1929 a beer was a buck and in 1934 was
$0.05. Many million $ homes sold for less than $5,000 in 1934. There was no $ to maintain them. Even a 33% loss in US treasuries ( I find that one hard to believe ) buying power increased to the holders. This time it is different! The world is so interconnected that a failure in one country may easily take down another and another. I agree with you on the Feds outlawing gold and that they will come for it again. However I think US silver coins, legal tender as they are will not be a part of the collection. as far as guns-I got mine and lots of ammo

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:27 - ID#286230)
But Max you haven't said to me personally yet: ) What % of the population do you think would agree with you?

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:37 - ID#402148)
What most analysts don't tell you is that Homesatke hit major strikes in those years and probably done well regardless of the economy.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:38 - ID#434108)
review of : 'flow of funds'
A look at AMG Data Services, from 5/21/98 till now, 6/20/98; suggests that:

"All Equity Funds"...
are declining significiantly;
suggesting, in my interpretation, that:
'this is bearish for equities/stock-markets'.

"All Money Market Funds"...
have advanced/increased;
suggesting, in my interpretation, that:
more & more people are waking up to the reality of
"cash as/is king".

"All Taxable Bond Funds"...
with modest increased flows of funds;
sugggesting, in my opinion, that:
bonds are preferred to stocks.

"All Municipal Funds"...
with just about the same level of net inflows;
suggesting, in my opinion, that:
"Why add to our debt-holdings in muncipals, when they may be headed for hard-times, or bank-ruptcy, too...?!"

These are just my opinions.

If you want to see the corresponding, referenced charts, see:

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:40 - ID#28994)
The Canadian health system is not free and is probably one of the most costley in the world,for second rate care at the best.
There are more CT SCAN units in Dallas Fort Worth than all of Canada.
If you care for socialism and extreme taxes there is no finer country.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:44 - ID#266105)

(Sat Jun 20 1998 22:59 - ID#369165)
Hopeful re: homestake mining
They may have hit good grades but I think the reason they did so well was 3 fold.
1 ) people could not own physical gold so they had to settle for stocks
2 ) money was worth more and they were making ( mining ) money!
3 ) Most important-the price of gold went from $20.00 to $38.00
If they were making money in 1929 at $20 they had to do well at almost twice that!! Being gold will probably be money ( used ) at sometime in the future and it is not now backing the US$ I would assume that gold stocks returns will be as high as the moon by then. Or else I have done everything wrong.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:01 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
A minority. I merely wanted to correct, for the benefit of our American friends, the implication in your 22:03 that everyone here in Canada approves of having a health service funded out of tax revenues. That is simply untrue. Certainly the majority support it, but that is not what you said.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:03 - ID#227238)
Selby in the sights? Naaah.
Selby: For over 30 years, my business has been medical x-ray. From my observation our health system, via the HMO's, is about as tightly structured as a government run system. The major difference is that we have a dense ( double entende - intended ) layer of very highly paid managers, at the helm of these plans. All of them, of course, aided and abetted by the US federal govt who has a vested in interest in containing its medical costs.

I have been paying my own health insurance for the past 20 years. For my wife and me, the tab is almost $7k per year. Last nite, by chance I looked at a medical statement for a recent office visit. My grand total of charges to the plan over the years is $1,660. ..... Total. My wife may account for perhaps 3 times that amount. But, the total for both of us, over the years is less than one year's current premium.

Obviously, age is a factor. Just as obvious, past useage counts for nothing. Also it's widely acknowledged that the individual plan payers subsidize the group plans. Surprise. Surprise. Eh?

For all of that though, I would avoid the HMO's like that the plague. At least until the day when I no longer have any choices at all. For the moment though it's important to me to be able to make my own choices without having to kiss the ring of some medical treatment "gatekeeper", in an HMO who would decide those larger things for me. Of course such decisions would be influenced by plans present P&L statement and the monetary options to be tendered management.

Canada has had many decades to work the kinks out of their system. It obviously works well enough to satisfy most Canadian taxpayers. Here the people who receive the treatment are seldom responsible for the bill. As a result there is a complete disconnect between demand and cost.

In a nutshell, our system, if it be called that, leaves a lot to be desired.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:04 - ID#43460)
Sorry, selby, that was just an aside.
Sorry, I get more and more off topic. The main point was that for lot of areas of freedom the Canadians I've met felt Canadian government was less invasive than the US, particularly in the area of freedom from fear of property ( gold ) confiscation. IMHO

Seriously, the Canadian expatriates I know didn't move here because of the health care system nor politics et cetera, but for the reasons I mentioned. Most of them would move back in a minute if they ( and their american wives ) could stand the weather. ( I knew one fellow who showed dogs in field trials. He claimed that he had perfect weather for his sport starting in Mid July in Canada then traveling down with autumn through the US ending in December in Louisiana. Then based in Louisiana he could start spring training in January. ) And their comments about health care were all in passing. None of them carried around a lot of worries about it. ( One I've heard-before the introduction of the HMO system-that for their individual circumstances US health care was more convenient, but I don't have any personal basis for comparison. ) IMHO

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:04 - ID#93199)
Fidelity select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

120 day chart shows that we are at a possible buy point.

Steve - Perth__A
(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:06 - ID#284170)
Japanese articles

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:13 - ID#344308)


before i forget......bite me you peopleo gumblio....
realistic USED TO BE a regular poster here before he ran into chaos
and you time is limited, and the message specific,
or i would eviscerate your peopleo hide from stem to stern....squiggy..

gaze at the future....from the past....

the 'other' golden one...

mini contracts--$160--1 cent = $10....
big boy contracts----$800--1 cent = $50.....

YOU MUST SWING the bat of life in order to hit a home run....

cherokee.!; )!; )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:17 - ID#347447)
Bill - Gold IS money BECAUSE it's a commodity. REAL money is commodity money. A paper note with $1,000 printed on it will pay for a new carpet, or three airconditioners ( real commodities, goods, and services ) as long as it is accepted by faith and agreement as payment for same in a sociiety. But the note ITSELF, as a scrap of paper and a smear of ink, and a bit of artistry, is only worth a few cents as a good or service. In and of itself it is not a commodity that equals in labor and materials and technology the goods and services it buys. Fiat money is a manipulated numbers game that changes according to the needs and whims of the issuer of the fiat notes. Most people will go on accepting the paper. Only the terms of its exchange value will alter, over time, and rarely to the good if there is no real commodity that the note is representing as a receipt. Gold is the TRUE money. It's just that people have a wonderful talent for living in their own realities for extraordinary lengths of time. Sometimes its very difficult to tell the lunatics from the sane. It is in periods of adjustment between lunacy and sanity that money can be made in the gold market, as in any other market. The bull is coming. Make no mistake.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:20 - ID#347447)
Mr Chop-a-saki!

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:24 - ID#227238)
At the fiat junction of flux and chaos.
Mike Sheller: That's about as well stated an explanation and differentiation, as I believe I have ever read. .......... No wonder it's always you big city boys who make the big bucks. You understand the system. The rest of us? ....Just scratchin' gravel. Competing with the range pullets.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:26 - ID#344308)


my good to 'see' you again...i have been laying the ground-work for the NEXT commodity to be added to the crb.....

fresh water.....and the accurate measurement of same..using rf...
lgbs' avowed expertise??.....what-ever...

my company is going to hit public with an ipo with-in the next year.....
we are the leader....chop-a-saki...

water is more valuable than oil....fact..what is happening now, grass-hopper?

cherokee!; )

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:28 - ID#373284)
Earl, Namaste' you got that right...just to meet with Sheller he sits on one side of a
scale...on the other side you have to keep putting gold until the scale balances and then you only get one hour of his time. He does take of his watch, shoes and his wooden leg to be fair to Mike though.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:28 - ID#432221)
Mike Sheller

Well done, very well done.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:29 - ID#344308)

ditto mike sheller, mon frer.....

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:30 - ID#227238)
It's been awhile. No?
Cherokee/Mike Sheller: If you gentlemen would drop me a line via email, I would be most appreciative. I would have initiated same but a series of browser disasters have decimated my address book. ..... As in, like it don't exist no more. ...... My Address hasn't changed. It's still TIA.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:32 - ID#286230)
gagnrad, Max
Great topic socialized health care --but or maybe similar to PM's- only the day to day players usually make any money at it. Most of us pay and hope the day will never come when we need to use it. I had never had much to do with the health care system as a patient until 1996 and then ran up what would have been over 30 000 bucks in a couple of months and never even spent a night in hospital. Baring national bankruptcy I can't see any return to private insurance as a replacement to the socialized version now in place and currently being rationalised in Ontario to the wailing and gnashing of many teeth.

Not much chance about doing anything about the weather either--although Toronto was warmer than Ft Lauderdale a couple of times last winter and will be again I'm sure when el nino returns in a few years.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:39 - ID#227238)
H20? Strange you should mention.
Cherokee: Interesting that you bring up the subject of water this evening. I live on the banks of a beautiful clear river and in the last 3 weeks have been busy introducing my garden and lawn to its refreshing qualities. All via a hand dug distribution system of some 300 feet in length. ...... Now it becomes a race between the "water watchers" ( of whatever stripe ) and the son of bitch who will surely steal the pump.

In the meantime, my well will remain unburdened by irrigation needs. ..... Now if the Jays would only leave the corn alone.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:47 - ID#43349)
It is easy to confure money with value. Especially when one can use
a thing of value such as beaver pelts or gold coins as moent just
as easily as things of no meaningful value such as pieces of paper
with ink on them as money.

Very few people really understand money although most people understand

This make it easy for the adroit to take away your thongs of value
without your realization.

Sometimes a thing used as money has it's value as a commodity exceed
it's face value as money. Such as when the value of the copper in copper
pennies exceeded a cent. People would go down to the bank, get bags
of pennies, melt them down and sell the copper.

I don't think you will ever see people scrubbing the ink off of even
one dollar bills to use them as notepads.
(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:53 - ID#434108)
Divergence of Gold w/ Mining Stocks:
This week, ending 6/19/98:

Gold prices advanced approx. 4.69%,

from $287.50/oz. on 6/12/98,

to $330.80/oz. on 6/19/98,

( NYMEX/COMEX Aug. Gold contract ) .

This same week, ending 6/19/98:

the xau index advanced approx. 1.31%,

from 68.23 on 6/12/98,

to 69.54 on 6/19/98,

( xau index from Phil. Options Exchange* ) .

Has anyone noticed, does anyone care, that with 'strong showing',

this almost 5% increase in gold prices, there is only a 1% increase in the xau...correspondingly?

Typically/usuallly/historically/often... gold shares precede bullion moves...particular in the very short-term, day to day trading markets.

Does the week's 'weak' showing in the mining shares, vs. the

week's 'strong' showing in gold, give anyone here ... on the

great wide-world-web of kitco .... cause for bearish


Don't offer me reasons why, explanations, reassurances. I just want to know if anyone in this erudite, exquisite, evolved collection of fine minds, hearts & wallets.... noticed this discrepancy, and if you did,

how did you interpret it. ....?

If you care to reply to me, sincerely, please do so - without embellishment or personal philosophical waxing & waning; but instead

solely with your honest, pure, personal, concise and clear

interpretation of this divergence/discrepancy -- that you had already

recognized - this contrast - that you had already recognized

prior to my proposing/presenting/identifying 'it', here.

If you are so willing, then I invite your kind indulgence of

my request, that you might share your observations, your

opinions, interpretations, and perspective.

And I thank you, sincerely.

My e-mail:


All the best, to all of you.


David Blair Macrory

P.S. - On another, yet related matter:

*It is my perception that the Phil. Options Exchange no longer

gives/offers the weighted percentages ( -which are based on

capitalizations ) of each mining stock component of the xau.

At least, I cannot find this break-down/listing ...

at their web-site

Anyone having these percentages, I'd appreciate your sharing them with me.



(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:58 - ID#43349)
I had noticrd that as of late precious metal stocks have lagged the
metals themselves. When gold went down the stocks held up, but
eventually dropped. Now that gold has jumped up, the stocks have
held down.

(Sat Jun 20 1998 23:59 - ID#53236)
I moved to the states for the Feeling of Freedom and Personal Responsibility. Of course, I was shocked to see the level of welfare that I found. I also moved for oppourtunity, and these are somewhat related.

HMOs are worse than the Canadian system, in my opinion, because of the greed motive with no balance. In the USA the balance factor is the law suit. Did you know you cannot sue an HMO for deining treatment!!!! This is a disaster! If Mr. Gore wants to make sure HMOs provide certain services, he should not pass laws, he should simply cease the Federal protection these institutions have.

My mother does have some trouble getting the quality of care she wants in Canada. Canadian definitely do go to the USA for certain expensive treatments, or to get them more quickly. At least in Canada you know where you stand, though. In the USA you never know how the insurance co or HMO will mess you over. And they will! if it is a costly service you want.

Go Gold, Silver.