I grumble about US socialism, and how it is strangling our economy -- especially small businesses. Our infinitely wise bureacratic leaders respond to complaints about overegulation by adding more regulations, rather than eliminating the old ones that caused the problems. There is a well known US economist who has pointed out the extensive damage socalism ( excessive regulation among other things ) has already done to our economy.
What amazes me is the American ingenuity to earn a living despite the degree of socialism we already have. Ever think about why our economy is doing better than the European ones, and Japan? Part of it is because we are less socialised ( regulated ) . Consequently our economic system can adapt more quickly to changing external forces.
Big government, big business, big labor -- we must avoid monopolies of any kind.
1 ) Japan wants to reflate, and since it is one of the world's largest creditors, it will, ending the deflationary period in SEAsia.
2 ) Worries about China devaluation lead to support of the Yen.
3 ) Japan and Asia have a competitive advantage over the US, due to their growing trade surpluses, versus a worsening trade account deficit in the US.
With regard to item 1 ) this is just what Japan has been trying to do for the last several years, without success. What Japan needs to do instead of reflating is to systematically shut down bankrupt businesses, in order to restore local and foreign investor confidence. If it does not do this, Japan will continue to deflate, and their markets will fall.
WRT item 2 ) a Chinese devaluation is inevitable, regardless of what happens with the exchange rate.
Item 3 ) -- US trade deficit. This will not get the US -- yet. What we have learned on Kitco is that SEAsian production has dropped, rather than increased. Now, when the SEAsian firms get back on their feet, then the real deflationary danger to the US will begin.
So -- I find much of this reasoning faulty. Most of the facts FV presents suggest more deflation, not reflation to come. The deflationary serial currency devaluations have not yet ended. We should at least wait for the Yuan devaluation. Also, commodity prices will probably bottom in the next 6 months -- not now.
If FV is right, and the shorts are frustrated, and short cover, it will not be for the reasons he states. It will be because the BIS ( and other CB's ) have decided not to let the price of gold go below 280/oz US. Or equivalently, the 'powers that be' have decided that the US dollar is too strong.
http://www.forbes.com:80/asp/redir.asp?/forbes/98/0615/6112198a.htm
What the heck? When we were partying one evening a few years back in a very mixed ( globally ) crowd, we discovered that just about everything you could say has been used as a sexual innuendo somewhere by some small group. Why women's breasts alone could enjoy their own lexicon! Cheers!
the 40-day moving average. Again, news sensitive, but it ignored prior similar news. Resistance;
right here at 300. Support 295. Commercials are net long, but don't tell all the gold bears ( and
we're not even big gold bulls ) . Possible early 1998 low successfully tested. Now a rally to 310,
back off to 295-300 or so, and then up would be how to recognize a general continuation pattern
of an .dare I say this .actual uptrend.
As is more likely, the rally falters as Japan capitulates to pressure, comes down some, but not
much, then gradually stabilizes. We have considered Gold under 300 a value buy, but because of
various central banks sporatic ( and hardly predictable ) selling sprees ( something that didn't exist
in the pre-free Russia days, we haven't had any interest in playing it.
It seems to me to be quite prophetic, regardless of being written 20 years ago in 1969. What do you think? ( my apoligies to the author, if there are typos )
bbml
************************************************************************************
The following is a quotation in its entirety from "How to Invest In Gold Coins" 1970, by Donald J. Hoppe.
Chapter XIV . " A Look at the Future"
Perhaps Keynes is more deserving of respect as a philosopher than an economist, for his more abstract reflections often reveal penetrating insights. He showed his genius, and that he was, by his ability to grasp so frequently the single vital point of seemingly obscure and chaotic situations. The Keynesian observation that introduces this final chapter goes a long way towards explaining why the Western nations have continued on such a disastrous economic course in recent years, despite the formidable lessons of history. It also provides a rather significant guide to the future course of events. Keynes himself was familiar with the propensity of politicians, bureaucrats, and academicians to accept others' ideas and speculations more on the basis of novelty than because of any capacity for critical evaluation. Shortly before his death in 1946, Keynes wrote: "I find myself moved, not for the first time, to remind our contemporary economists that the classical teaching embodies some permanent truths of great significance."
Unfortunately the reminder was largely ignored; the promoters of the New Economics were not merely rejecting the classical doctrines; most were blissfully unaware of them. Spurred by ideas borrowed willy-nilly from the works of Keynes, Henry George, Norman Thomas, Dr. Francis E. Townsend, Huey Long, the Fabian Society, and other modern thinkers ( part genius, demagogue, and crackpot ) , the "New Economics" was launched in 1946 with the passage of the Full Employment Act in the U.S. This act, which is still the law of the land, sanctified deficit federal spending and domestic inflation as the cure for all economic and social ills. Simultaneously, the electoral triumph of the socialist Labour government ushered in a similar new era in Great Britain.
Such is the eternal optimism of man, that we can still look back after twenty years and pronounce the economic philosophy a great success, despite the ravages of an inflation that has destroyed the free economy of vast areas of the world, brought the British to their knees, and cut the value of the U.S. dollar in half. It was this peculiar myopia that prompted TIME magazine, in its December 31, 1965, cover story on Keynes, smugly to observe: "We are all Keynesians now." I am not at all sure that Keynes would have entirely appreciated the compliment; Keynes himself was seldom a practicing Keynesian. But the lesson is obvious; the doctrines and practices of the New Economics will continue to effect the destiny of the Western world for some time to come. The so-called practical men of the world, the great uncritical majority of politicians, bankers, stockbrokers, business men, and economic journalists, are invariably prisoners of dogmas and doctrines not of their own devising or understanding. All too easily they accept the fatuous clich that "we will have to learn to live with inflation." Such living will prove more difficult than is generally expected.
The economic climate of the next ten years is very likely to be the most dangerous since the 1930s; the economic and political delusions that have brought us to our present sate of monetary and social disorganization are too well entrenched in the popular mind to be overcome short of complete disaster. The world's economic machinery is, in my opinion, on the brink of going completely our of control - or at least out of the control of Washington. Therefore, having written a book giving investment advice, I would be remiss if I did not conclude with a forecast of the possible events of the next decade. Some of these events will be quite shocking and unexpected; they will undoubtedly unnerve many investors and cause them mistakenly to alter or abandon sound investment programs.
First, the removal of all gold backing from the dollar and other currencies guarantees that the future will see an acceleration of inflation - but such forecasts are a dime a dozen. It will not be all that simple. There will be more inflation, far more than we have previously experienced, but it will follow an erratic and unpredictable course, whipsawing many an unwary investor. The money managers will push up and push down, alternately inflating and deflating the economy in a vain attempt to preserve the collapsing international monetary structure, to save the dollar, and at the same time to fulfill the mandate of the Full Employment Act of 1946 by pursuing an expansionist domestic monetary policy. The managers face an insoluble dilemma, and will do great damage without achieving their goals.
The next major event in the worldwide economic drama that is unfolding will probably be the complete collapse of the British pound. No matter what expedients the international bankers employ, they cannot alter the fact that virtually all the monetary reserves of Great Britain have been borrowed. Another pound devaluation is inescapable, and sooner or later the reality will have to be face that the billions loaned to England to save the pound not only will not save, it, but may never be paid back. Britain is nearly bankrupt.
The French franc is also in bad shape; the Paris riots have shaken the French middle class to the core and brought back all the bad old memories. It was de Gaulle who restored trust in the franc, and the unexpected knowledge that he was not infallible has weakened it beyond repair. The August 1969 devaluation of the franc signaled a return to the old monetary instability that had plagued France before the advent of de Gaulle.
Other wholesale devaluations ( including the dollar ) will follow the coming breakup of the world's major currencies and as a result the world will eventually turn to "floating" currencies; that is, currencies no longer will be defined and valued in terms of a fixed amount of gold, but will become exclusively fiat instruments, allowed to fluctuate freely in the open market - like some kinds of government bonds and Treasury bills. The price of gold may be entirely freed from monetary controls and it is quite possible that the restrictions on Americans regarding the ownership of gold may be removed, but the change may come too late for most of us to benefit from it.
The period of floating exchange rates will be a most difficult and dangerous time for the gold-coin investor - or any investor, for that matter. The price of gold will no doubt fluctuate considerably during this period, in terms of dollars and other currencies, and there will be much talk that gold will lose its value entirely. There is also a very real danger that in attempting to restrain the rampant inflation that is sure to follow the wave of devaluations, or the U.S. decision to abandon gold entirely, the money managers will push down too hard on the economy. Do not be surprised if the American economy is sent reeling into a severe recession, or even a depression, quite soon. But remember, when this happens the money managers will frantically reverse their position and stoke the fires of inflation more vigorously than ever.
Therefore, it is most important to the gold-coin investor not to react to any short-term uncertainty by selling. The world's monetary gold reserves are not going to be dumped on the free market, although your government may try to convince you that they will be. It is fair to ask, however, what will happen to these gold reserves in an era of floating currencies. Part of them will be retained as emergency funds for purposes of national security. Another part will be pledged to back some new international reserve currency created by the Common Market countries to replace the dollar. The dollar has been able to function as a reserve currency only as long as we have maintained its convertibility; a floating nonconvertible dollar will be useless for this purpose.
Neither will SDRs nor any other international fiat money be trusted by the European. The days of IMF, at least in its present form, are numbered. The Europeans may appear to play along for awhile with the present IMF arrangement and the SDR scheme, in order not to offend the powerful U.S. ally, but when the real crisis comes they will abandon IMF and set up their own fully gold-backed reserve currency. The dollar and other floating currencies ( perhaps including initially even some of the Europeans' own domestic fiat money ) will be left to float down the drain.
Other large amounts of gold will be used to back new kinds of debt instruments. Government and corporate bonds will be issued with gold clauses guaranteeing the principal and interest in them of fixed amounts of gold by weight, in order to insure the buyer against loss through inflation and devaluations. Believe me, before long that will be the only kind of bonds saleable. Other forms of international and internal financing will also be denominated in gold, as the inflationary illness rates. The U.S. itself has already started this trend by selling nonmarketable gold-guaranteed Treasury bond to the central backs of both Canada and Germany.
It will eventually become clear, even to the Harvard Economics Department and the U.S. Treasure, that gold, far from being an anachronism, is perhaps the most valued and most demanded single commodity on this earth. Many nations of the world, particularly the U.S., will then scramble to begin rebuilding their drastically depleted gold reserves. The price of gold in terms of domestic fiat currencies will soar. Perhaps in ten years or so we will have built up a national gold reserve adequate to permit a return to some system of national and international fixed exchange rates. A "permanent" price for gold will then be reestablised ( at a price far higher than the present ) . But much hardship will ensure in the meantime.
Inflationary eras are always accompanied by waves of social and political unrest. And this, in itself an additional economic burden, will not only continue but in all probability greatly increase in the next few years.
The eventual implosion of severe economic controls, regardless of who is president, is a certainty. Classical economic philosophy may not be resurrected for many years to com, perhaps not even in our lifetime. Governments will remain addicted to the philosophies of manipulation: political, social, international, and most assuredly economic. Indeed, we will have to learn to live with inflation, but we may at the same time have to live with business stagnation, massive social discontent, and government repression. The experience of France in the post-World War II years may to a considerable degree be repeated by the U.S.; a U.S. dollar at 1/200 of its 1940 value is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Barring a major war, the economic history of the U.S. in the next five to ten years will probably evolve along these lines:
1. Accelerating inflation: galloping price increases, massive labor unrest, crippling strikes, impossible wage settlement, staggering property tax increases.
2. Wholesale worldwide devaluations, with the pound, the franc, and the lira leading the way.
3. U.S. embargo on gold exports and refusal of all further redemptions of central bank dollar holdings. Result: de facto devaluation of the U.S. dollar in world markets.
4. U.W. action leads to : gradual worldwide abandonment of convertibility; floating exchange rates; wide fluctuations in the market price of gold; removal of all restrictions on private gold dealings; gold demonetization in the U.S. and Great Britain.
5. Collapse and breakup of the IMG; beginning of a new European Common Market gold-backed reserve currency.
6. Stringent economic restrictions imposed by the U.S.; "tight money' policies resumed; partial wage and price controls begun; prime interest rates reach 10 to 15 percent.
7. Severe business depression begins in the U.S.; drastic declines in employment, stock prices, real estate, etc.; massive social unrest.
8. Panic resumption of federal deficit spending and lending, resulting in huge budget deficits - perhaps as high as $40 to $50 billion in the first year.
9. Foreign gold bonds and gold-guaranteed private debt issues appear; regular bonds and notes selling at deep discounts or virtually unsalable.
10. Only partial recovery from depression, but inflation resumes in earnest; paradoxically, purchasing power of paper dollar declines rapidly in the midst of general economic stagnation. Crime and disorder in major cities at times almost unbearable.
11. U.S. government adopts new authoritarian economic and social policies; severe wage and price controls enforced; national police fore established to assist local authorities in maintaining order and combating crime; permissive social attitudes strongly rejected by public.
12. U.S. government announces new gold policy: building of national gold reserve given first priority; all privately owned gold bullion ordered to be surrendered to Treasury at fixed price under pain of severe penalty for evasion; all gold in U.S. nationalized again ( except for gold coins of recognized numismatic value ) ; mining activity greatly stimulated by an increasing Treasury gold price, and by special grants for exploration, recovery, etc. Exports to gold-rich countries, such as Canada, South Africa, encouraged by special subsidies and government assistance.
13. National gold reserve greatly expanded; currency stabilized by a return to fixed parity with gold. "New dollar" established - old dollars exchanged at 10 to 1, 100 to 1, or who know what, with new dollars.
14. Great international monetary meeting to establish a new system of fixed exchange rates among major trading nations. Common market gold-certificate reserve currency adopted as new international reserve currency, resulting in a new fixed world gold price.
15. New era of international monetary cooperation begins; domestic economic restrictions eased; general prosperity resumes. But balance of power in the world substantially altered; U.S. no longer number-one trading nation - eclipsed by greatly expanded and united European economic community.
This chapter is not being written as a demonstration of psychic powers; the author claims none. I cannot and do not guarantee that all of the events I have outlined will take place, or that they will follow in the exact sequence described. But these projections are based on a long and intensive study of both economic history and human nature, and I believe they represent as accurate a view of the future as is possible to construct from that basis. There are other possibilities, of course, and they have already been mentioned in this book. The U.S. may succeed in turning the IMF into an international "engine of inflation," although I believe the odds are very much against our being allowed to manage such and "engine" for long. We may be drawn into a major war. In either of these cases the effects in terms of inflation and the price of gold are obvious. The important thing, as I see it, is not whether these events occur exactly as forecast, but whether the investor is psychologically and financially prepared for them, or for events of a similar nature.
Nowhere in this book have I suggested or intended to suggest that gold coins should be your only investment, or even your major one. Real estate, in the form of your own home or place of business, provided that it is soundly financed and not overbought, has a place in most investment programs. Certain other business investments and some common stocks, particularly gold shares, may prove rewarding in the years to com - although I think that on the whole the stock market is greatly overbought and will be a very dangerous place for all but the most nimble speculators in the next few years. But what I do say is that a gold-coin collection, if properly accumulated, will prove to be one of the safest and most rewarding areas of investment in the foreseeable future. Admittedly gold coins are a defensive type of investment, but defending and protecting capital against the ravages of both inflation and business stagnation will be the major problem of the years between now and 1978 or so.
In any significant business downturn as a result of restrictive monetary policies, the high intrinsic-value coins will undoubtedly remain strong, but numismatic rarities will probably suffer important declines. The thing to do in this case is not to sell any of your coins, those of high intrinsic value or others, but to take advantage, to the best of your financial ability , of the opportunity to acquire rate items, particularly among U.S. gold coins. During any period of severely depressed prices, such opportunities may be of very short duration.
Another development that may cause concern to those who are not prepared for it is the possibility of wide swings in the price of gold during the period of floating exchange rates. There may be one or more sharp downward reactions, and understandably these dips may cause some anxiety among gold-oriented investors. Remember, any such occurrences should be temporary; the pressures of inflation that are a built-in part of our economic and political system should inexorably reassert themselves shortly thereafter. Look upon any gold-price reactions as opportunities to complete series such as the Mexican 50, 20, and 10 Pesos, to purchase interesting common European gold coins, or to acquire missing Eagles and double Eagles at bargain prices.
Although I think one should not in any way depend on it, it is possible that with a floating dollar and demonetized gold, the U.S. may once again permit the private ownership of gold bullion. In that event, it is possible that the availability of bar gold at or near actual intrinsic value will have a depressing effect on gold coins, which usually sell at a premium ( although that has definitely not been true in Europe ) . However, if such an effect should occur here, I believe it would be very temporary; for this reason: the inflation-scarred American public ( including some of our great corporations ) would quickly absorb all domestic supplies and production as a hedge against further inflation and debasement of our currency. As you know, we don't produce much gold in the U.S. We already are substantial net importers. Trying to buy foreign gold with inconvertible paper dollars will be an interesting experience; the net effect will be to drive the price of gold sky-high in terms of those dollars - and a rising price for bullion will certainly be reflected in a similar increase for intrinsic-value gold coins.
If I were offered the opportunity to buy bullion, I would not do it - except perhaps a small stamped ingot or two, just as a collector's item. I feel that the danger of government confiscation is just too great. It has been done before and it could be done again, without hesitation, whenever it is decided that such an action is "in the national interest." A major war or a worsening of the world economic situation will certainly qualify as a sufficient emergency. In short, the precedent has been established in the U.S. that the federal government can confiscate private gold ( or silver ) bullion pretty much at will. So speculate in gold options or futures if you must ( assuming such opportunities are available ) , but I advise you to confine case purchases of the metal itself to coins. Besides, bullion has no possible numismatic value or potential; and as I've reminded you, the numismatic factor in gold investments in the form of coins is too important to ignore.
If the reader is inclined to view my 15-part scenario of future events as being somewhat on the pessimistic side, I should warn you that I feel it is the most optimistic position I can take under the circumstances. I left out the really bad parts: the very real threat of a big war in the Middle East involving the U.S., the possibility of large-scale resumption of the Vietnam conflict, or the danger of full-scale civil insurrection in some of our major cities.
It is a dangerous world we live in. We long for security and repose, but absolute security is an impossible dream and repose does not appear to be our destiny. However, as far as our financial survival is concerned, there are certain verities that seem to survive the most catastrophic adversity. The gold coin is one of them. In the last two centuries alone, several great empires have fallen into ashes; their paper currencies, their bonds, their glory, all their pledges and promises have been consumed in the flames. Little remains of those empires but the words in the history books. But their gold coins, those hat have been preserved, are now worth from five to five-thousand times their original value when issued. Surely this is a development worthy of serious investment consideration.
This problem exemplifies my point I made some time ago about the Gini index. The only strong economic system is one where wealth is distributed among the people. If wealth is kept by only 1% of the population, that economic system is bound to fail violently, like the fiefdoms of the middle ages, as well as numerous other historical examples throught the ages. Economies need to be opened up so that small businesses may thrive, and support a general rise in wealth so that people can afford higher energy prices. Government regulation the world over needs to be decreased, not increased. We only need enough regulation to eliminate monopolies, and make sure the basic rules of fair trade are applied.
The markets are probably not as strong this time as they were then, and the Japanese will be more cautious about selling large quantities of treasuries.
One thing about the US -- there is no way we could wait nearly 10 years to have our deflation -- we wouldn't have any options since we don't have the savings.
ROBNOEL - I believe the rate for banks is 8.4%. Tried to find a recent article, within a day of the US dollar/yen intervention, about this. There was a major Japanese bank ( the largest private bank ) that had slipped to 8.2% and the bolstering of the yen was designed to prevent a major incident. Got it back to the minimum.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980622/V000959-062298-idx.
html
Just paste the html part on the end, and you can read about the North Korean mini-sub that got caught in the net. I think the NKoreans are getting restless again.
SEC suspends trade in Golden Eagle Intl
WASHINGTON, June 22 ( Reuters ) - The Securities and Exchange Commission Monday suspended trade in gold mining company Golden Eagle International Inc.
because of a lack of current and accurate information concerning its securities.
Suspension went into effect at 0930 EDT on June 22 and will run through 2359 EDT on July 6, the regulatory agency said.
The SEC said questions arose regarding the accuracy and adequacy of assertions by the Denver, Colo.-based Golden Eagle and by others concerning the basis for its
claims of proven gold reserves on its Bolivian mineral concessions.
There has been moratorium on all land sales in Hong Kong as an effort to stem deflation out of control.
Any precedents on this? I don't recall any offhand but would be interested in any comments.
Got to get Donald or SDRer online. They'll know for sure.
I would suspect that in Hong Kong right now, after the collapse of this major development bank and the closure of land sales, that there isn't much property lending going on right now. What banker would lend under such conditions?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/05/text/business12.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9805/28/text/world1.html
while I don't agree with many things going on in this "free market society", I have to question your knowledge of the real facts about other countries and their economic systems.
I came from Europe, a lot of my family members and friends live in European countries ( Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Czech, Denmark, etc. ) . I spent a lot of time in those countries, working, I talk to my family, etc. It seams to me that your postings reflect mostly a "theoretical" experiences and not the real knowledge about how thing "ARE". Without any desire to spend a lot of time on continuing this discussion, let me ask you just one question: Have you ever lived in any of those countries, not as "American tourist" passing by, but as a person making living on day to day basis?!?!
Here in Louisiana it's day after day of 100 + degree days. The crops have burnt in the fields. I have never seen anything like it! How about some crop reports from other parts of the world. Cotton used to be king, only one farmer in our parish planted it this year. The corn is dead in the fields.
No rain for months, and none in sight. Yet prices fall... Gold is good!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/news/mining.html
I wonder if all those 121,500 hourly workers idled in the strike get listed on the unemployment statistics? As far as I know striking isn't allowable reason to file for 'pennies'. You can bet the union bosses will be sitting in air conditioning this summer, IMHO:
It is appreciated.
He ducked some really damaging press stuff.
I remember over and over thinking that the timing was all planned . .
Well, the rumours are out that Clinton's smear boys are planning to portray Monica as a virtually obsessed stalker. And the "leak" of the recently divulged tapes ( which are alleged to be stolen and can't be verified ) are setting her up in a massive new PR action by Clinton's PR folks. This should be really intense, and, of course, BC won't be available during any of it. They've already got the full damage control to her deal with Starr in place.
Sometimes you've just got to hand it to the guy. He really understood Machiavelli.
I really enjoyed the article read earlier today. If she was such a stalker, the Secret Service should have been all over her!
Alas, BC will prevail. The folks trying to pin him down are still playing by Cricket rules.
Here' their address. Don't know if it will reveal the article you seek.
Let me know if you're ever in San Francisco Bay area. Don't bring the snake.
Anyway, Gagnrad who used to be known as 223, both of which are hard as hell to remember . . .
10" was a typo. You who hangs out with 10' snakes meant I to say.
Is it a young python, BTW?
I like to view the little one at the local store. The rest of the post was OK.
Nope. Even if they look cute and fuzzy.
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
Earl: I appreciate the compliment.
I'm much more interested in some of the thoughts being put forth by Davidson and Moog in their latest ( The Sovereign Individual, I highly recommend it ) . A fine point that they make is that the power of government is being held in nearly universal contempt at the end of the 20th century. That government is now perceived as being INCAPABLE of solving the problems of the human race ( because, as I've pointed out to ROR, government is violence [see Harry Brown's book from the 96 campaign, he makes this point more eloquently than I] ) and violence just isn't getting the job done like it used to.
Case in point is what's going on in Japan right now. Bottom line is that Japan, even though not in debt at all ( Japan in fact is the planet's biggest creditor nation ) is in big financial trouble, and it is all largely the fault of an incredibly inept and corrupt government. See the site Bill Buckler recommended here a day or two ago. Japan's government is NOT dedicated to the service of its people, it's dedicated to the enrichment of its sponsors ( the Japanese equivalent of a Mafia / TriLateral committee hybrid ) .
I still think the best thing the Japanese government can do is let the bank fail, then proceed from there. The attempt to keep them above water is just pumping up the bubble. And the U.S. is telling them: print more Yen! It's gonna get real exciting over the next few months. Crash in Japan, Y2K.