Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:02 - ID#43460)
US Mint website
This site has more information than the last time I checked. In the bullion area it has 1992-1997 sales figures for its bullion products. Goodnight all.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:04 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
A situation had developed both in Japan and in the US which will be ended only by a Schumpeter-type cleansing. [Economist Joseph Schumpeter described the aftermath of booms as 'creative destruction'.]
In the case of the US, we are seeing stock market speculation, some real estate speculation and a terrific boom in mergers and acquisitions not benefiting efficiency but benefiting those bringing it off - plus there's an explosion of subsidiary financial operations, including in particular junk bonds.
When the market fell on Monday, it was blamed on South Asia; any future problem will be so blamed. But no one should doubt that there are grave flaws in the Wall Street financial structure.

The Observer: How do you think Greenspan has been handling things?
Galbraith: Greenspan has been doing admirably what the Federal Reserve has always done - which is nothing. He was very clever the other day when he said deflationary influences would come from South Asia, restraining American speculation: toning down American speculation, rather than emphasising the speculation itself.

The Observer: Would you generally approve of the way he has conducted monetary policy at the Fed?
Galbraith: Absolutely not. There should have been far more warning about the speculative splurge on Wall Street and the extent of citizen participation. That was the mistake that the Federal Reserve made in the Twenties, and the mistake that it has made again now.
And the reason for it is simple: you cannot warn against a speculative splurge without taking responsibility for what happens thereafter; no head of the Federal Reserve wants to be held responsible for a dip in the stock market. Once or twice he has got close to saying that, and he certainly knows it. But nothing appeals so much to a central banker as personal caution.
One thing is wonderfully clear - when trouble comes on Wall Street, the blame will all be passed to Indonesia, Malaysia and maybe Japan. Wall Street insanity - let me use a slightly milder expression, Wall Street 'speculative error' - now has a perfect cover.
Galbraith: We could move much more aggressively than we are doing to clean up the situation, to make sure that we have common honesty in the operation of all these mutual funds, for example. One always worries that there may be some relationship between what a mutual fund is doing with its investors' money and what the participants in the fund are doing with their personal funds.
There have been some cases of that in the newspapers recently. In the US we now have far more mutual funds than there is intelligence, perhaps integrity, to handle them. They are the bridge between the innocent and the eventual loss.
This is a time when we should tighten, and be very certain about, the quality of our bank regulation. There should be strong warnings against investment in high-interest bonds.
Nothing calls for more concern than the revival of the junk bond; while the problem of regulation is a bit difficult, we should look with some concern on this whole mergers and acquisitions binge.
But having said all that, I would emphasise again that the sequence of speculative boom and its result is part of the market system ( one cannot now use the word capitalism ) and has been for hundreds of years. The market system has its considerable accomplishments, but one should never ignore its

The Observer: Do you think we are going to come back to a point when some kind of Bretton Woods system is needed, and some control of capital?
Galbraith: One of our stronger points is that in consequence of the existing Bretton Woods system - if properly financed - we have a structure for easing what the financial community loves to call a correction.
We should always bear in mind that, as is happening now in East Asia, the peculiar genius of the IMF is to bail out those most responsible, and extend the greatest hardship to the workers, who are not responsible, who are innocent participants.

The Observer: Do you believe, and have you ever believed, there is any truth in the 'new paradigm' idea?
Galbraith: When you see reference to a new paradigm, you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulip mania in 1637 [when 'investors' bid up the price of bulbs to astronomical levels, even devising a system of call options on tulips they didn't actually own], speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble - until the day of disaster.
The Observer: Do you feel optimistic about the next 10 or 50 years?
Galbraith: The answer is very simple. On 15 October this year I will celebrate my 90th birthday. At that age the matter of optimism and pessimism as a purely personal matter becomes slightly irrelevant.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:10 - ID#287186)
Deja Vu? re: Miros 21:22, RORs 22:09, Oriss 23:20?
Promey chewed on him last time and figured it wasn't worth the gnawing.

Date: Sun May 24 1998 21:13
Prometheus ( @ROR ) ID#210235: I repeat, you haven't done your homework. I've lived it, have friends and family still over there, and keep up with the news. The big difference is that here the middle class has a chance. Read "The Millionaire Next Door" yet?
You are calling me a liar. I can only say that you are either just plain ignorant, trying to generate alot of anti-socialist truths from the other members of this forum on a slow day, or another greedy gus who wants to get his hands on OPM. Whatever, I am out of this discussion. Your statements are so blatently false, I won't honor them with a response.

Just about everybody else here left him have it too!
Sometimes I think he throws some bait in the water just to watch us go after it. I'll bet ROR is as capitalist as the rest of us. That is why he is on a Gold Forum.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:12 - ID#257136)
Nuestro Amigo ROR. If yer gonna talk like a commie reb, ya better learn some of the other
languages so you can fit in. Maybe in Chiapas, NO?
El individuo pasado recuerdo quin ech en chorro el lema " Venceramos! " fue matado por alguna gente en central o Suramrica como procurar criminal fomentar una revolucin ( socialista ) comunista en un pas no sus el propios.
Esperanza segura que usted no sigue en los pasos de su leader's ( Castro ) amigo glorioso!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:14 - ID#287186)
Jack - your 22:52 is quite correct and you've a good question to boot
Perhaps the POG is NOT high enough.
If minting of Gold coins began at that rate it would drive the POG right through the roof - plumb through those termites holding hands {in SlingShot's 00:35}. All the major CBs {Europe, US, Japan, etc.} may only have 1 billion ounces of Gold. Demand would exceed supply and the POG would skyrocket. Can't have that now can we?
Perhaps the USG should start with a 100 million each of 1/2oz US$500 Gold coins and 1oz US$1000 Gold coins. They would have to keep them under wraps in Fort Knox 'till the POG gets up there - wouldn't take long though. Only problem is if the POG goes over US$1000/oz they would have to melt them down and start over with 1/4oz US$500 Gold Coins. That would be a shame now - wouldn't it?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:16 - ID#252127)
Posturings and wishings

Gangrad: Many great societies have failed, look at the ancient Greeks and Romans and the unsinkable ships go down.

Those who promote the paper clad theory of power and
infailability obtain their power from the sweat of the
the masses who receive those paper promises or the obligation to pay the debt on these paper promises so they may exist.

I just love supporting a government who encourages an
industry that relocates so as to effect the livelihood of its own citizens, and in the name of Globalism ( translated as profiteering ) .

Who; when difficulties effect those greedy low lifes, the government uses the sweat of the citizens screwed to to rescue them.

The crap will hit the fan and those responsible for the
promblems created will along with all of us pay a price.
I feel that you believe in gold but have lost confidence in the peoples ability to set things straight.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:16 - ID#187109)
It will bounce tomorrow.......or the next. Look for it. This is not ANOTHER prediction of Mark O'Meara winning the US Open....this is for real. Go copper. Now......back to World Cup.....Damn Yanks got embarASSed and Ruddy Ole Blighty got beat too......oh well. We'll get 'em next time ( ? ) ....... ( not ) . create a post about Swan's Island.....Donald, he says send gold not info ;- ) his 'project' will finish OVER budget...I told him to build a BIG 'Why Two Kays ( ? ) ' barn for storing his rice and beans and wheat and water and Honda generator and.....uh.....AK47 and....K-rations and so on and so on and so on..... he told me to piss up a rope....


(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:25 - ID#255217)
Mtn Bear(SE) @ 22:05
raises a good point. RIGHT NOW, if you tried to "buy" anything with gold or silver coin, people would think you are crazy ( and you would be ) . But there will come a time when gold or silver in coin form will be looked upon as a welcome solution to chaotic conditions.

I don't think it will happen overnight, but will gradually evolve as the general populace becomes aware at some time in the future that paper and clad coinage isn't adequate. At first local coin dealers may be the only ones to make a market in G&S coins and perhaps acting as brokers between those willing to pay for goods and services in G&S and those willing to provide such goods and services in receipt of G&S.

As things progress and more and more people become familiar with such transactions, these markets will expand and probably even draw in entrepreneurs who see the potential in a hard money market and attempt to capitalize on people's inexperience with G&S. But people will eventually become so familiar with the "new" markets, they will soon be able to conduct their affairs with a fair degree of acumen. By this time the daily quotes for values of G&S and the equivalences in goods and services will be known and understood by nearly everyone.

I don't expect to see this exact senario unfold, but something not too different will evolve. And I don't think this phase will last a long, long time. At some time it will become apparent to everyone that paper transactions and bookkeeping practices have their place in commerce and as long as the system is not abused by dishonesty and averice, it can work pretty good and is considerably less cumbersome than actual exchange of G&S coin in every transaction. And the whole thing starts all over again With NEW safeguards, of course. And NEW scoundrels out there trying to circumvent those safeguards. And so it goes. All IMHO.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:35 - ID#252127)

Globalism is a scumbags religion.

The flow of funds theory when translated to currency strenght and based on the shinnanigens of the worlds biggest internal and external debtor, my beloved country and conversely my hated government will fail and the people receive the justice of the change.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:37 - ID#227238)
Prometheus ( @Erle and Earl ) :

What'd I say? I haven't posted a thing since last nite. ............ In order to prevent further confusion: It's, One E one L and no Y. ....... I suppose I could bawl about the busted ticker, though. There never seems to be enouogh of that.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 00:50 - ID#431366)
kapex, Argent, et al please see my post on Mon Jun 22 1998 22:09
Since Mtn Bear is not here to defend himself I must defend my cousin.
You have jumped him and it was me you should be jumpin'.
My first post here had my handle stripped off!
I was addressing Mtn Bear and thus the header started with his handle and thus you thought it was from him.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:00 - ID#227168)
Another Thought
Its not when the next Gold Bull starts -- Its when the next game begins and how many big players Presumably the year 2002 --Away to the pool for a night swim

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:00 - ID#287186)
Argent & ALL - I have long cogitated on the G&S broker idea and
I agree with your 00:25
but I have not figured out how to make a profit off the transactions other than buying and selling on a spread. A spread is one thing for occasional purchases but if folks are going to be buying and selling coins everyday as they do currency now - that spread would have to be small. Where does the IRS sneak into this? What other regulators might I run into or afoul of? At some point do I become a bank and draw the attention of banking regulators.
Back to the IRS - I remember the National Barter Exchange group got busted big time. They had a great idea until the gestapo showed up - literally - weapons drawn and the whole nine yards!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:01 - ID#255217)
I never saw a cute, fuzzy snake OR democrat. I HAVE seen some smooth, SLICK demos., though.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:19 - ID#401460)
Ms Rivlin says
Tuesday 23 June, 1998 ( 9:44am AEST )

A senior American Treasury official has warned that the crisis in Asia is
worsening, but could be resolved by the end of the year if Japan takes strong
measures to pull itself out of recession.

America's Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Alice Rivlin, also warned that
economic growth in the United States was not slowing as rapidly as had been

She says following the weekend meetings in Tokyo of Japanese and foreign
monetary officials, Japan now appears ready to act on its ailing banking system.

Ms Rivlin says although Japan has not faced up to the problem for quite a long
time it's now determined to do so.

American and western officials have been pressing Japan to act decisively to
stimulate growth and to tackle bad loans that have been weighing down the
banking sector.

Meanwhile, the American ratings agency Standard and Poor's has placed Hong
Kong's short and long-term debt on credit watch, increasing the likelihood of a
ratings downgrade in the near future.

The agency says the move reflects increasing financial sector strain and the
growing likelihood of a protracted economic downturn in Hong Kong.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:25 - ID#255217)
I think a spread system would work OK. Perhaps most don 't know it, but that's pretty much the way coin dealers do it now on the PM stuff. If you get greedy, you can't compete and you are out of business. As volumes increased, the spreads would narrow. Makes it tough on the little dealers to compete with the Biggies, but that is true in ALL kinds of businesses.

The smaller dealers survive ( IF they survive ) by the larger premiums on numismatic stuff. Even this is much harder than it used to be because of the CDN ( gray sheet ) and slabbed coins and an increased sophistication on the part of the general public.

I forgot where I was going with this. It's late. Another time, maybe.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:26 - ID#346236)
WWIII Soon to Start in New York City (Terrorist Atomic Device)
Information received indicates US Intelligence agencies are on full
alert as a well know Islamic terrorist has made the threat that on or before the fourth of july he will kill millions of Americans. This fits with a scriptural prediction of a James lloyd tel 541-899-8888 ( ask for free fact sheet on this ASAP )
He claims that Boutros Boutros-Ghali will be back in as the UN SEcretary-General of the UN once NYC is destroyed and UN Hq is reestablished in JERUSALEM under GHALI the Antichrist. Global death toll is expected to be 1.5 billion ( one quarter of world pop. )
The cryptocracy definitely knows this is coming, the hidden agenda is to justify the mass destruction of militant Islam.
Global martial law will quickly be enacted this event will officially start the Great Tribulation.The first wave of Y2k problems are scheduled to begin 1 july 98 for systems based upon fiscal year 1999. Because Islamic Jihad nations are largely former client states of the Soviets
trained in SOVIET MILItary doctrine, they abide with thinking predicated on an unprovoked first strike rationale. Further
, the Soviets always planned that first strike to coincide with a spontaneous crisis that has already begun within the ranks of their target. The july 98 edition of Reader digest carries an article named "He wants to kill YOU" this is the same terrorist for whom the alert is out on . He has the resources to purchase weapons of mass destruction. The 27 th of June is see as a prime possible attack date however it is extended until through the four
of july 98. Clinton is scheduled to depart to China on 27 June with largest attachment of support personnel ever assemble out of DC. America will be 222 years old this 4th 2+2+2=6. Food will be the money of choice IF this happens.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:32 - ID#252150)
A good article on how the USG screwed everything up in the ME & is frantically
trying to improve relations with Iran:

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:37 - ID#255217)
Back again. The banks. I think, after all that must take place, the banks that suevive will have to conform to whatever situation emerges. They will probably be competators and eventually reestablish their preeminence with considerable changes in their structure. Laws will be passed that fit the evolveing circumstances and the IRS ( if it still exists ) can still only tax the profits. A lot of bridges must be crossed before we can begin to anticipate all the details.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:41 - ID#252150)
Apocalypse by July 4? Let's see that gives me less than 2 weeks to sell
everything here & buy that remote piece of property near Ted & Jane in Patagonia. Hmmmm--gonna be a busy day tomorrow. So much for my round of golf.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:47 - ID#373284)
Marshall, Namaste' Ah you not think that 2+2+2=6 is a stretch even for
the devil? I mean I want to get the UN out of New York, but, Hmmmmmmmmm,
put it smack dab in the ME...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, Oh yeah...I am sooooo sure that every diplomat on the planet wants to be hanging over there.

Actually I am waiting for the Anti-Clinton to step up to the plate...but that is my own prophecy waiting for itself to become a headline...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:58 - ID#287186)
Marshall: your 01:26 (WWIII Soon to Start in New York City (Terrorist Atomic Device))
Short story ( as best as I can remember it ) . If someone remembers where it was printed please let me know. The story is so strikingly similar to conversations here and elsewhere on the net.

Immediately after WWII in a bar in NYC there sat several atomic scientists having drinks and talking about the Bomb. They're saying how easy it is to make one, how small it could be, that there could be a boat in NY harbor at that very minute with one on board. The barkeep asks these guys if they're serious. They assure him they are. He asks again since he figures they're pulling his leg. Yes they are dead serious - in the business they're in they know it is possible a boat with a Bomb on board could be in the harbor even as they speak.
The barkeep tells them about when he was in Europe before the war. He could see it coming - the stormtroopers, military buildup, etc. Since he was single he could make major decisions fast. One day he dropped everything, caught the first train and the first boat and got the h*** out of there! He didn't fret and worry and study it some more. He got out without even packing his bags - like evacuating a burning building.
The barkeep asks them yet one more time to make sure about the boat idea. Then he calls over the owner, tells him he is quitting, hangs up his apron, collects his pay and leaves for the nearest bus station. He does not stop by his apartment to pack.
In New Jersey he starts having second thoughts. Surely those guys are pulling his leg. They must be having one heck of a laugh on his account. And besides, he forgot to make arrangements to feed his cat. So at his first opportunity he finds a payphone and calls the bar. The operator can't make the connection - something is wrong with the phone lines.
About that time his attention is drawn to the east. Though it is late evening it looks like the sun is coming up. And the phone goes dead.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 01:58 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:01 - ID#207145)
What is a value, what is a "tulip frenzy"?
Asia, bought about the time our market shi*s, and PMs, oil are values.
Sell this upcoming rally by July 23. Sell into it or what ever. Nothing to buy from July 23 until Nov 1 in stock market. Gold bottoming, but who knows when. Grains are about to boost CRB tho. All bottoming in here. That's good for gold.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:03 - ID#206358)
Thanks for the last post about the Asia crisis!This two days,most of the regional currencies rebound,except INDONESIA RUPIAHS!Today 1:14950!Things doesn't looks good,huh..?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:05 - ID#255284)


You related to Ziva?

Cos you sure sound like her.

Perhaps you could go look for her.

Like, on ANOTHER Board

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:08 - ID#207145)
Short Memory,
Our stock market is topping, Japan's is bottoming, along with Asia's. Where do people buy? You guessed it, THE most expensive market in the world. Asia in a few more months will be as good a buy as precious Ms. Sandy Weil ( as in weilly ) , is no moron, and he's buying now ( a little early ) while Nomura is for sale.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:17 - ID#207145)
No hope for Yen,
Until July 12., by end of July, it will be falling again. The resulting profit scare/squeeze, will kill the currency/markets thru Oct . ( notorious for currency trouble. Oh well.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:28 - ID#401460)

I hope things are ok with you.

A while back I gave your e-mail address to a friend of mine who was in Indonesia. He is back in the States right now, but will return to Indonesia in August. I don't think he tried to reach you, but I don't know for sure.

Last fall and winter, before he left the States, I would forward your post to him . Thanks for your frontline view of things.

Best of Luck, may God be with you.
Good Night,


John Disney__A
(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:28 - ID#24135)
Freezing in Africa ..
For Gagnrad..
See your point .. suggest feed him to your snake.

for Erle ..
Re "training mine" .. you see .. there's a little
truth in all I say .. sometimes not much

for Tom
Re Harmony at $3.25 .. Patience is GOLDEN..

For Brother Oris
I give up .. what is W&C ??

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:35 - ID#255284)
I htink therefore I am
I, for one, appreciate your diligent posting of your charts. I am looking forward to hearing some commentary from you too.

JP your 16:50 last spin

squares exactly with a more public ( ? ) expression of the same experience on NZ TV last Friday downunder time.


On the news the other night ( Friday ) , a shell-shocked securities manager
from the ANZ bank just returned from SE Asia & Japan. He lost his bottle, what he saw was all news to him, but of no great news to kitcoites. Had he been prepared, he would not have said "Japan is heading into a depression that will be measured in years, not months." and "The extent of the visible Japanese bank indebtedness is like an iceberg, 9 tenths is under the surface still." and "The US is behaving like an ostrich." and
Australia and New Zealand are just heading into the troubles."

This poor sucker, lost it, on TV. He was panicking, He was a Securites
Manager with the ANZ and he was incautious. Unlike a banker. There was
no equivocation. No humming and hawing ( or, as they say on Pennsylvannia Ave, "No humping and whoring" ) International economies are F*d. Even I could've done a better job in spinning the positive news. The point is, of course, hearing the *D* word on tv. Depression. Oh yeah, that Luis Ruykeser ( sp? ) was on the show too. Does the word "Pratt" translate into merkan?

The more I htink about it, the more logical it is to form and
independant free state populated by the freemen of kitco in noo zilundd?


I discussed this interview with my friend from Johnson Matthey, he had
seen it too. He could not believe his ears either. I have been
educating him with the acknowledged assistance of kitco. NZ is the next
domino to fall, amigos.

A hard Wayne's gonna fall

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:56 - ID#255284)
Is it OK for the Gobmint to "guarantee" up to merkan$ 100,000?
Allen/All FDIC
Your Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:28 ( Pair a noids )

How do you libertarians, libertarianz & libertines think/feel about this socialism the FDIC?

Sounds like govt intervention to me. And one Horus of a liability too?

We got no steenking Gobmint guaranteeing our savings in noo zillund, tho many sheepeoples think we do.

Hey, it's good to be back. Good to be back. Where dem Stralians?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 02:58 - ID#225283)
HIghrise & Jin

Nice post about Alice's comments re Japan...

But unfortunately it is through the looking glass "spin doctoring " at its finest. In other words LIES HALF TRUETHS AND DISINFORMATION...

Asst. sec. Summer stated to the Jap press that if immediate action was not taken this thing would be "VERY VERY BAD"

As I stated months and months ago the key to this entire Global Asian Fire drill is the status of the Jap Banks...

Nothing has changed...yet....The LTCB is very near failure...The Jap P.M. is powerless to force insolvent banks to shut down...The LDP in the Diet are refusing to take any action until after upper house election on or about July then it will be much to late!!!!!!

THe CHinese have already fired a warning shot across the bow of the US & Jap Financial fleet...failure to close Jap banks immediately thus strengthening the yen ... will lead to further devaluation of asian currencies beginning with the the mean time Currecy speculation will kick the crap out of the yen and the entire world will be in " a world of hurt"


(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:03 - ID#343259)
@Private Investor
Agree with post, esp last sentence.
Do you know what JPN Banks are "In trouble"

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:06 - ID#255151)
Silver Coin Question

The US stopped making Silver coins for everyday use in 1965. What about other countries? OZ, NZ, Canada, Britain?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:06 - ID#225283)
HIghrise & Jin

Nice post about Alice's comments re Japan...

But unfortunately it is through the looking glass
"spin doctoring " at its finest. In other words

Asst. sec. Summer stated to the Jap press that if
immediate action was not taken this thing would be

As I stated months and months ago the key to this
entire Global Asian Fire drill is the status of
the Jap Banks...

Nothing has changed...yet....The LTCB is very near
failure...The Jap P.M. is powerless to force
insolvent banks to shut down...The LDP in the Diet
are refusing to take any action until after upper
house election on or about July then it
will be much to late!!!!!!

THe CHinese have already fired a warning shot
across the bow of the US & Jap Financial
fleet...failure to close Jap banks immediately
thus strengthening the yen ... will lead to
further devaluation of asian currencies beginning
with the the mean time Currecy
speculation will kick the crap out of the yen and
the entire world will be in " a world of hurt"

ALl because the Jap politicos DO NOT HAVE THE

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:11 - ID#252391)
Yen 137.84 gold and silver unchanged
As the world sleeps . . High Rise - think you have the situation well defined. So sad that we all ( and I mean everybody ) hangs with the Japanese Banks. This is all too much like a fictional movie going bad.

Will the markets just hang out till after the 12th of July??? Pretty soon we'll forget what makes bullish news, what is bearish, which side is up and which down. Waiting on the Japanese do do something .. boy is that a bad position to be in . . cash ( $$$ ) and bonds the only safe haven . . my gosh.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:12 - ID#225283)
LONG TERM CREDIT BANK & nearly all others

LTCB is hoping for a huge infusion of public funds and a mega merger...

Aurator...Do you have a transcript of the show or know hiw I could obtain a copy of the PAL or VHS tape...can you be more specific as to what he said.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:20 - ID#329186)
Blooper( Tulip frenzy ID 207145)
for the story on Tulip bulb mania try this URL they had to be carefull when eating onions in those days

go gold!


(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:22 - ID#255284)
Watch this space
Good call! I phoned up the producers of the program ( Tis 17:30 hereabouts ) must phone back in half a spin to discover how I can get a transcript. Shall keep you advised.

In the meantime, I made that post from a few notes I made immediately after the interview, it was part of an email I sent to a friend or two.

This banker was shell-shocked. I guess he had just visited ANZ clients ( creditors ) ( buy the puts ) . He was naive, or neive ( snowlike, eh crusty? ) and what he saw scared the Crsus out of him.

I wonder if he still has a job?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:23 - ID#329186)
Blooper ( sorry id207145 please amend that url
you should remove the forward slash in history/myth into historymyth good luck


(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:25 - ID#225283)
You nuke story is no laughing matter acording to General L. several suitcase bombs are missing from Russian nuke arsenals...He recently informed CIA and world press.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:27 - ID#255284)
try that url again, please. It looks close to home?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:28 - ID#39857)
oh yeah and
A select group of Kitcoites has been asked to prepare for
deployment on notice. Hot spot probably MOF.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:34 - ID#207145)
Thanks for the typo pointer. Sorry the posting didn't stimulate a response.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:35 - ID#255151)

What a great story! Man, is that financial guy Sherlock Holmes, or what. Like DUH! ( would you mind sending me the e mail that you sent your two friends? )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:39 - ID#255284)
COMPETITION TIME---Extraordinary popular delusions anyone?


ONE copy of Charles Mackay's 1841 classic

"Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"


to the first person who posts the name of the first person in Noo zilund to strike gold ( claim the Otago Prize ) together with the month and year of the discovery.

you will need also to post your email address


(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:45 - ID#39857)
Mindreaders are manipulating the markets.
Hows that aurator.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:46 - ID#255151)

Gabriel Read, May 1861.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:54 - ID#255284)
....soooo fast...............

Well done!

email me your physical address and a copy shall wing its way Auric-wards in half-a-spin

(Tue Jun 23 1998 03:59 - ID#255284)
my email to you just bounced back. Have you not paid your ISP?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:07 - ID#328159)
South Sea Bubble
Dr. Marc Faber: Investment Mania

(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:09 - ID#255284)

A copy of Extrapops is yours for the asking too.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:11 - ID#255284)
please email me

(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:19 - ID#252391)
About as unchanged as you can get
Gold down a dime, silver up a cent, S&Ps were recently unched. Yen 137.63 Now I can't remember is a stronger dollar good for stocks and bad for metals? Or bad for both?? Seems we're waiting for the next shoe to drop. Oddly if the projection is for another decline in the yen believed by 85% of participants and 99% of the public why aren't the metals falling. Shorts getting nervous? Large player buying?? Or just a pause that preceeds the retest of the lows???

Who is the one who knows . . . frankly, I just think he's lucky

(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:34 - ID#255151)

Thank you so much, my friend, for such a treasure. That will be a possession that won't be for sale. It is a good omen, eh!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 04:54 - ID#317193)
Brother oris & Disney
PMSP...I should follow my own advice, eh. Thank you both for reminding me of Ida's wise words. So it shall be.

W&C...oris I will think long and hard on this but it is 4:00 in the morning and I'm going back to bed. What do you serve most gold mining share investors? Cheese. Why? They wine alot.: )

Nite, nite...again. Thanks to you both...again.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 05:11 - ID#255151)

W&C= Wine and Cheese? Do you want my address so you can send a case of each?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 05:35 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Your prediction for the DOW may be only a day off
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...2:03AM...15054.60...-254.49...-1.66%

My bet is that the downward conviction that the DOW could not find yesterday it will find today.

Buying more silver today. Now 10% gold/5% silver, taking it up to 10% silver as well, for 20% PM total. Rest in cash and bonds. The opportunity in the Nikkei isn't there yet, but I'm keeping an eye on it.

Do you know how to work those Japanese levers? I hear they're 2000 years old.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 05:36 - ID#185448)
Nuke York? Somebody inform Mike Sheller!
Any time my Marshall starts to sound like that I change the tubes.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 05:44 - ID#255284)
Oui, D'accord...

I agree, send Marshall to the Islands, the Marshall Islands.

Actually, Fred. I am wagering with myself whether we'll hear about a ( CLASSIFIED INFORMATION---DELETED BY THOUGHT POLICE ) before 1 April 1999.

This site does attract some sights/cites, yes?

We are gonna see some reeeeeeeeeel looooooonies here@thekitco_inglenook.

( inglenook is worth a look up )

just watch.......

the lunatics are on the grassssss

(Tue Jun 23 1998 05:48 - ID#386245)
Was cleaning out my closet yesterday...
...and came across US$500 in traveller's cheques that were left over from a trip to Indonesia last year. I had completely forgotten about them. I paid @A$700 for them at the time. Took them down to the bank and cashed them in for A$823. Such a deal ( 17.5%gain ) !!

This brings home to me the plethora of currency devaluations in Asia. Everything I own in 'Stralia is worth at least 17.5% less in greenbacks. Mind you, if I was an Indonesian I'd be more than happy. Read somewhere today that 50 000 000 Indonesians will soon be living in abject poverty. There is a real human toll in all these numbers we play with here at Kitco. I spend a lot of time trying to keep my numbers in the black. I already eat too much, drink too much and own too many houses. The POG assumes slightly less significance when thinking of the plight of others less fortunate. I know you are all suffering from compassion fatigue from all the 'institutional beggars' showing starving children in Africa etc., but take the time to count your blessings once in a while. Then pop out your cheque book and do the right thing. My favourite is the Fred Hollows organisation, which makes intra-occular lenses for people in Eritrea, Vietnam etc. I give sight to people who would otherwise not see. What do you do??

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:00 - ID#26793)
You can contant Judy Shelton through Stanford University. She has been moving around. Mexico, DC area, but last I heard was back in California. She knows her stuff.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:01 - ID#26793)
Australia lowers gold production estimates due to poor price

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
Russia says platinum shipments to Japan will resume in July.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:09 - ID#26793)
Indonesian Moslem leader urges Chinese who fled to return; we need you.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:11 - ID#255284)
give one man sight and teach him how to give sight to others.....

Ya Fred Hollows a giant amongst men.

Fred Hollows gave the gift of sight to people all over this sweet gold world.

Fred Hollows discovered a cheap, efficient way of removing cataracts, Fred also loved to teach others how to remove cataracts. His students set up clinics around all South Asia. Oh. Yes. Fred Hollows was a New Zealander.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:12 - ID#26793)
Small gold mining companies face increasing pressure

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:14 - ID#26793)
You have e.mail waiting.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:15 - ID#255226)
Jims - The rally into the 25th is July 25 +/-, the dip into late June is a seasonal play.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:16 - ID#72316)
Makes a good case....

Gabriela Neri ( 1179 )
From: Ray Hughes
Monday, Jun 22 1998 1:40PM ET
Reply # of 1197


( juniors which have some cash resources ) Why would a junior with cash necessarily
thrive if good times return? Is there enough cash to survive that long? Will any specific
junior have a property with an ore body? Does each junior have 1 ) good geologists, 2 )
astute financial management, 3 ) top managers who understand how to promote, 4 )
major brokers behind them, 5 ) a stockholder base that won't simply sell into any
rebound? Sorry, but your assumption that juniors with cash will "really thrive" is

( All hostile conditions will reverse themselves in time with a healthy POG ) That is
known as a straw man case. Why and when would POG increase? This aspiration fails
to recognize the change in monetary system. Gold transaction costs and inefficiencies of
transfer prevent gold from serving as basis of transactions for world trade.

( The return of inflation will help sentiment greatly... ) Do you understand that
majority of gold production is now not labour intensive and, therefore, tendency for
inflation to elevate gold mining costs is not operative today. POG protects us from
inflation only if the cost of producing gold climbs if inflation translates into rising gold
mininig wages not offset by gains in productivity. If higher unit operating costs are not
met by rising POG then, ultimately, mines close and gold supply diminishes. However,
decline in gold supply must be sufficient to cause actual reduction in marginal supply
sufficient to cause users to subscribe to higher prices.

Central banks have virtually unlimited gold supply. They short gold against 1 ) actual
holdings, and, 2 ) their ability to print fiat money to cover gold bear raid costs. They can,
I can attest personally, intimidate ring traders by the massive scale of central bank
selling, to cause traders to liquidate their own holdings, thereby 1 ) dropping POG and,
2 ) intimidating traders sufficiently to cause sharp drop in demand for gold.

Gold is no longer money. Central banks have long desired to make fiat currencies "as
good as gold" and to do so they must cause POG volatility to diminish to near zero to
preclude profit opportunities in POG. That they have succeeded in every way in
achieving goals spelled out by Mr. Greenspan as long ago as the late 1970s is evident in
the sharply diminished gold price volatility, and resultant down-rating of gold and gold
shares by investors.

Old Wall Street Adage - don't fight the tape. Gold is dead. The real trick is to figure out
what industries benefit from todays' Central Bank policy and goals and to find the
beneficiaries to invest in.

Gold has been in a ten+ year bear market. Few investors managed to stick profits in the
bank from speculating solely on the POG. Those who prospered did so by gaining
intimate acquaintance with genuine company builders, of which there were scant few
( Barrick, Corona, TVX ) , and figuring out which were blessed by an orebody but didn't
have management smarts to last.

If you don't have time, inclination and skills to become personally acquainted with
juniors, their properties and their management you have better odds at the Blackjack
table. Chances are at least 50-to-1 against a junior finding, from grassroots exploration,
an economically viable property. To make money on juniors otherwise means selling on
the first hint of a good drill intersection and that is plain crapshooting. Blackjack odds
are only about 3.2% against a skillful player.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:21 - ID#26793)
Huh? Miramar sells forward 133,000 ounces at $441 per oz. (Canadian$?)

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:28 - ID#26793)
In the long run, falling prices are a disaster

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:30 - ID#255284)
speaking of sight for the masses.....

where's the TED spread. I mean TED report?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
Asian problems and low oil prices put pressure on the Mexican peso.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:43 - ID#29048)
June 23, 1998

'Big 3' Exporters' Accord to Cut Oil Output Signals Seismic Shifts



As oil prices plunged in March, the Saudis weren't talking to the Mexicans. The Venezuelans weren't talking to the Saudis. The Mexicans and the Venezuelans were kind of talking -- though they disliked each other -- but both knew they needed Saudi help. Then Robert Mabro, the head of Britain's Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a man known in the oil business as a neutral party, got a surprise phone call. The Mexicans wanted to know whether, if they called to discuss a three-way truce, would the Saudis talk? The 64-year-old Mr. Mabro phoned Riyadh to find out. An aide put the question to Energy Minister Ali Naimi. Yes, the reply came back, the Saudis were open to discussions. Thus began a series of clandestine meetings among three countries that together account for nearly 48% of U.S. oil imports. Those talks led to the first round of concerted cuts in oil output in more than a decade. Now known as the Riyadh Pact, the agreement eventually led to pledges to take 1.5 million to two million barrels a day off the market, about 2% to 3% of world production of 73 million barrels a day. The amount of crude withheld from the market could grow even more when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its semiannual meeting in Vienna Wednesday. Benchmark crude-oil prices rose strongly Monday, climbing 48 cents to $13.65 a barrel. But what caught the market's attention even more than the agreement itself was the fact that the talks took place outside the confines of OPEC; Mexico isn't even a member. The agreement raised the possibility that the troika could become a de facto market regulator and supersede the increasingly enfeebled OPEC and its unwieldy quota system. Venezuelan Energy Minister Erwin Arrieta called the pact "a new vision" designed to "create healthy conditions" for market forces to work.

Maybe. It could also become yet another "new paradigm" that soon will be forgotten as producers return to cheating on quotas. But this much is for sure: The events leading up the Riyadh Pact say a lot about the changes in global power, the state of the oil industry and the very different kinds of people who control the world's spigots these days.

A Vastly Different Industry

From technology to economics to politics, the industry is vastly different from what it was 12 years ago, when oil prices last tested price levels this low. And it is even further removed from 1973, when OPEC used oil as a weapon to bring the industrialized world to its knees. Global oil production has grown 14% in the 1990s, but OPEC's share of it has dwindled to about 40% of the total from 50%. Once-closed countries such as Venezuela and Algeria have in recent years opened up their fields to private-sector joint ventures. Others are expected to join them in coming months: Iran will probably open its on-shore production to foreign partners. Iraq, which has huge proven reserves, is expected to give the green light to bring in other producers as soon as United Nations export sanctions are lifted.

Meanwhile, the increased availability of sophisticated technology and cheap financing have enabled a raft of companies, ranging from Britain's Lasmo PLC to Spain's Repsol SA to Argentina's Perez Companc SA, to emerge as formidable mid-size players. With the world awash in oil, prices, before rebounding Monday, had been sliding for months. Last week, they fell below $12 a barrel to the lowest levels in a decade. That left the Big Three exporters staring down a fiscal black hole and desperate to keep their U.S. market shares.

Costly Miscalculation

But the Saudis and Venezuelans weren't thinking about such threats when they made a costly miscalculation at the OPEC meeting last November.

Even as the first tremors of Asia's financial collapse rumbled around them at the meeting -- held in Indonesia -- they bet that growth in world markets and especially in Asia would continue to match rising production levels. They voted to raise OPEC output by 2.5 million barrels a day to 27.5 million barrels a day. That decision was followed by one of the warmest Northern Hemisphere winters on record. Energy use was far less than expected. Oil tankers initially headed for Asia turned for the U.S. Inventories increased rapidly. Prices started to collapse, heading below $15 a barrel in January from $27 a year earlier. Panic set in among finance-ministry officials in Mexico and Venezuela. They looked on in horror as national revenue imploded. In Mexico, for example, each $1 drop in the price per barrel of oil slashes government income by $1 billion. But while Mexico's situation was bad -- it depends on oil for 37% of government revenue and 10% of export income -- Venezuela and Saudi Arabia were even worse off. They rely almost entirely on oil income to keep their economies afloat. Venezuela was watching the disappearance of the $6 billion surplus in its current account -- in its trade in goods and services plus certain financial transfers -- and, with a presidential election looming, the prospect of a currency meltdown. Saudi Arabia's position wasn't much better. Now, economists say, the country's budget deficit will probably double this year and its current account will move from a small surplus to a $10 billion deficit.

But impending crisis still wasn't enough to bring the Big Three together. Animosity had been strong since the beginning of the 1990s, when Venezuela aggressively began grabbing market share, particularly in the U.S. The architect of that strategy, Petroleos de Venezuela SA President Luis Giusti, a pugnacious 55-year-old, has thumbed his nose at the OPEC quota system, vowing to double output by 2006 and to dominate the U.S. market at the expense of the Saudis and the Mexicans.

Saudis Embittered

That stance especially embittered the Saudis. They didn't appreciate Mr. Giusti's flouting of convention at a time when such OPEC members as Nigeria and Indonesia were facing increased financial pressures. And they didn't relish the prospect of seeing their U.S. market share reduced to the point where Washington might have less reason to provide the security blanket that has helped the kingdom ride out the Middle Eastern political turbulence around it. The Saudis made it clear that until Venezuela returned to its agreed-upon OPEC quotas, no compromise would be possible.

By mid-February, however, with prices falling, fear began to displace loathing. Mexico's new energy secretary, Luis Tellez, bridged the gap. A graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Tellez, 40, was put into the job by his close friend, President Ernesto Zedillo, to modernize Mexico's oil business. Mr. Tellez first met similarly reform-minded Mr. Giusti at an energy ministers' meeting in mid-January and, an aide says, his boss and Mr. Tellez hit it off right away. "They are both younger, business-oriented guys, and Tellez saw right away what Giusti has been able to accomplish,"the aide says.

At a March meeting of the two in a Miami hotel, the plan for the non-aggression pact began to take shape. The meeting was so hush-hush, Mr. Mabro wrote in a recent study, that the hosts of a conference they were attending didn't know about it. Shortly after, Mr.Mabro received the phone call.

The first meeting among the three was hosted by the Saudi oil minister, Mr. Naimi, in tight secrecy at a government guest house in Riyadh. Known as a technocrat who worked his way up through the Saudi company, Mr. Naimi isn't a member of the royal family and is seen as less powerful than some of his predecessors, especially Sheik Yamani, who represented the Saudis from the 1960s to the 1980s.

The U.S. Market

At the top of the meeting's agenda was the U.S. market, where the Saudis control 15% of the imports, the Mexicans 14% and the Venezuelans 18%. Before a pact could be reached, knowledgeable people say, the three had to promise that they wouldn't use the cutbacks to steal U.S. market share from each other. In addition, Mr. Mabro says, the Saudis had to agree that the issue on the table was the current glut and not Venezuela's long-range plan to expand production. In exchange, the Venezuelans agreed, for the first time, to cut output. But as the talks proceeded to the level of the cuts, disagreements arose. The Saudis offered to match the cutbacks of the Mexicans and Venezuelans but wanted to reduce output more sharply than the Latin Americans could stand. Eventually, the three nations agreed on cuts totaling 600,000 barrels a day. Together with other nations' commitments, arranged before the meeting, the three stunned the markets March 22 by announcing total cuts in excess of one million barrels a day.

Moreover, the reductions were based on actual production levels in February, not on the widely ignored OPEC quotas. At first, the market was

impressed,especially because countries as diverse as Norway and Iran agreed to join in later. But soon, traders began to doubt that everyone was keeping to their word. They were right. The International Energy Agency reported a month later that the producers missed their cutback targets, with OPEC alone producing 250,000 barrels a day too much.

Oil prices began to slip again.

The three ministers took a second extraordinary step. On June 4, they met secretly in Amsterdam and announced additional cuts of 450,000 barrels a day. But this time, they didn't have a prior commitment from most other producers. Public grumblings erupted from producers that hadn't been consulted, confusing the markets about whether the Big Three had the

support they needed. Together with traders' built-in skepticism about cutback pledges, the second historic announcement had a less-than-historic impact on prices. "What they need to learn is how to talk to this market," Oxford Energy's Mr. Mabro says of the three nations and OPEC in general. "They need a spin doctor."

Winning Converts

But gradually, the ministers began to win converts. Since the Amsterdam meeting, Egypt, Qatar and Kuwait, among others, have made new pledges

totaling about 300,000 barrels a day, raising the pledge total to about 750,000 barrels. The figure is still short of the 1.2 million barrels a day traders were looking for in the second round of cuts to soak up the glut.

Finding additional reductions and agreeing to stick to current promises are just some of the issues OPEC ministers will face in Vienna. They also will have to figure out their place in a world in which an ad-hoc committee of three is making decisions for them. "They can either rearrange the deck chairs or save OPEC from the scrap heap of history," a U.S. government official says. Mr. Mabro contends that the Riyadh pact actually strengthens OPEC by making Venezuela again a major player after years of estrangement. But he acknowledges that the resentment created by

Mexico's leading role remains a sore point to OPEC countries.

Nevertheless, some observers are betting that in Vienna, the OPEC nations, driven by sheer necessity, will put pride aside in favor of prices. If OPEC agrees to additional cutbacks, many analysts expect the benchmark price to climb back to $16 a barrel by year end. Such a rebound would restore the development budgets of major oil companies, which have begun cutting back in response to the price declines.

But Mexican officials say they aren't under any illusions that the fragile peace they helped broker is anything more than temporary. In a mid-June interview, Mr. Zedillo recounted that when he was a graduate student at Yale University, Nobel laureate Prof. James Tobin used to engage his students in a game to test the limits of oligopolistic behavior."Within a few minutes, somebody would start cheating; it never failed," the Mexican president noted. "No market with more than two participants can sustain a cartel."

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:50 - ID#386245)
G'day Auramate.
Methinks we are now in the eye of the storm. I'm trying to position my hang glider in the correct direction. I think the camel's back ( $US ) is broken and blue sky may be just ahead.

BTW-- I am thinking of buying New Zealand. Should I do it now or wait until the currency is completely worthless??

(Tue Jun 23 1998 06:59 - ID#39857)
if its good enough for reuters

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:07 - ID#255284)
ANZAC$,,,,PORK CHOPS @ 20 FEET....Gorillas-R-US/---What about SWINKING?

Wait a while Nicko.

Your stralian dollar will be worth a smidgeon more than the kiewee dollar in two shakes of a lamb's tail.

No country on earth will manage to invade noo zilund. The Maori know that, and so do the pakeha.

BTW My US$ and s are "safely" in forn shores.

I'm a domino and I'm OK

Work all night and swink all day.

I dunno why I have to pay

taxes, so's the lazy can do nutting. Hooray?


Anyone wanna join my tax revolt?
aurator is revolting..

hey, you wanna revolution?
well what about us?


The NZ Reserve Bank hold less gold than aurator

I am htinking of issuing my own currency

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:07 - ID#289357)
Hmmmmmmm - an interesting name for a USG web site

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:20 - ID#386245)
Mate, I have a serious suggestion for you. If you are smart ( speaking of oxymorons ) , you would now repatriate your greenbacks and squid. They have both vastly overshot any estimate of fair value. I believe it is possible to butter your bread on both sides. Of course you are going to wear the dress at the frog's ball, so you must be happy with how low cut it is. If I were you, I would be daring and show a little bosom.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:32 - ID#255284)
smart??? Mois:??? No thank you....


the merkan$ and the Pict/Brit are "overvalued" BUT ( TER ) as in L@st_mango_in_Paris

there are ( **hear now**, the phalangeal meanderings of abucci ) more Northern hemispheroids ( rhymes with Grapes of Wrath ) who think contrari-wise.

I puts my money a few weeks ahead of the sheepleo

speaking of sheep.... there's this two-tooth I gotta take to "The Edge"

wether or knot you gottit, I'm gonna "slip"

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:37 - ID#347267)
Cuz Griz: Not to worry, all us ursa's can all take anythin they thow at usn's! Some of us b'ars might even be like Predators an change according to the need. Not only that, we can survive on whatever the land ( bless it! ) provides. Thers a story in the local paper 'bout the b'ar who tore open the screen door, knocked all the canned goods out of the way, got into the box of raisin bran, and ate ALL the raisins but one ( he liked raisins!! ) Man came home, found the mess, and said "That booger ate TWO SCOOPS!!!"
kapex: I'm a BIG BEAR on the US bubble mkt; but not a bear on gold
( unless Jan. lows decisively broken ) .
Best Regards; Mtn Bear

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:50 - ID#347267)
@Speed re OIL
Thankx for the WSJ post this am. Confirms my feelings as posted last night!! Holding my "biggie oils" and starting a search for the little wannabies.
Best Regards; Mtn Bear

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:54 - ID#184120)
LBMA in the news again...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 07:56 - ID#255151)
Mtn Bear

Got several things coming up which could knock this stock market to its knees. A selling of US dollars to make room for the Euro, a collapse and panic in Japan, or a big run on the Chinese yuan are just a few of many possible bubble prickers. Speaking of bubble pricks, a presidential impeachment would do it too. Conversely, the above might be just the tonic that would get Gold up and running.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 23 1998 08:00 - ID#347267)
@Silverbaron re "USGold" Gov't Site
Why did they DO that?? Is it because they talk about GOAL and can't spell? Do they hope to attract gold bugs?? Are they somehow gonna learn sumthin?? I DON GITTIT!! ps: Think USAGold has a beef???

(Tue Jun 23 1998 08:23 - ID#347239)
Mtn Bear
Mtn Bear...what mtn. range do you call home?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:02 - ID#347267)
Southern Appalachians ( Western NC )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:06 - ID#347239)
Mtn. Bear
Same here.....Good to see there are "locals" thinking the same as I do!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:07 - ID#254269)
Good morning all. Well, it's good to see Donald back on the job this morning
( unlike yesterday ) . Donald, you won't believe how rowdy the boys get when you're not around !

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:14 - ID#212197)
Y2K: The Industries Struggle with the Embedded Chips Problem
The following is an extract of NetVital Technologies's documentation of a Y2K embedded chips conference.
I'm impressed with the openness with which Kraft reports about their own Y2K Struggle. ( Kraft's report is the second one. First comes a short one about the electrical power industry. )

------------ Industrial and Process Control Systems
Conference Editorial Coverage

This conference on year 2000 and its effects on industrial
process control systems was held in Houston during May. I
was unable to attend the sessions on the first day of the
conference, but the other sessions I attended were quite
valuable. If you have not yet attended a conference focused
on the particular aspects of the year 2000 drama that are
specific to the industry that you work in, I urge you to go
to one or more of them. They can be relatively expensive,
running over a thousand dollars, and they seem to hold them
at the best hotels, but the experience is well worth the
cost. Spending several days talking with your peers about
common problems and seeing successful Y2K efforts is
empowering. It also sends you back home with a renewed
conviction that this problem can be licked. And it can be,
if we start working together.

If you are interested in upcoming conferences, check out the
links to Year 2000 conference providers
at: along with the
detailed Y2K conference calendar
at: .

------------ Electric Utilities and Y2K

Rick Cowles, best known for his books and articles on the
power industry, talked about fast track remediation
strategies for dealing with embedded control systems. Rick's
main point was that for large, or embedded heavy
enterprises, there is very little time left. If they aren't
deep into the inventory and analysis phase, they will
probably have to look at bringing in a solutions provider
to help. He had copies of his new book, Electric Utilities
and Y2k. You can find his book at: , and Rick's web site
on Electric Utilities and Year 2000 is at: .

------------ Krafting a Y2K Solution

The next session was put on by Evan Hand, a Kraft engineer
who talked about what Kraft was doing about its embedded
systems problems. Kraft Foods has more than fifty
manufacturing and distribution centers and more than 50
co-manufacturers with over 55,000 potential problems. They
also have to assure the compliance of 5000 vendor products.
At the beginning of his talk, Mr. Hand told the audience
that he would give them an overall view of the remediation
effort at Kraft, then he would get into specifics and give
them the actual numbers. Kraft has already had some year
2000 problems surface. Several million dollars worth of
food was destroyed because the food expiration date was
after the millennium. Because of two digit date encoding,
the warehouse had processed the shipments as expired and
destroyed them.

The management objective at Kraft was to have continued
operation with minimal impact to the facilities and at
minimal cost. Kraft also decided to introduce a radically
different way of dealing with their year 2000 problem. They
are talking openly about it.

Many large manufacturers have similar problems, but Kraft is
the first one I have heard of who has implemented an open
door policy. Kraft is telling what they are doing and why,
and also detailing the tools they are using. They are
sharing their compliance database with their vendors and
their test criteria with their vendors, business partners,
and the public. The engineers convinced the legal staff
it was the only way they could fix the problems. And the
Legal department let them do it. Mr. Hand then gave out the
numbers. Kraft has tested 832 Programmable Logic
Controllers so far and had found 10% of them to have a date
capability, a higher number then they had initially
estimated. He also talked about what kind of problem the
tested machines had such as a subtraction problem or date
roll over. At Kraft, the PLCs control safety and food
production, so any glitch will shut down the whole line.

The audience was very appreciative of Kraft's effort and
their willingness to share the results. Several people
commented that it was the best presentation they had seen.
Mr. Hand didn't minimize the legal problems. He couldn't
tell their target date for full compliance at the conference
because Kraft's lawyers insisted that announcing any date
before December 31, 1999 would put them in legal jeopardy
if any systems encountered problems after that date.
There is also a thicket of disclaimers around their
knowledge sharing, but it is working.

********** Sponsor's Message: NetVital Technologies ***********

Subject: Can Affordable Be Great?

As The Date grows closer, so does the hype. We're accustomed to
hearing big, big numbers for Year 2000 COBOL toolsets, and we assume
that we have to pay big to get the job done. But the sheer size of the
market should be causing prices to go DOWN on products, right?

Hi, Dan Sigal here at NetVital Technologies, and, yes, I *have* found
an affordable Year 2000 COBOL remediation toolset that's also fast,
accurate and easy to use. Sound incredible?

But please don't take my word for it. Just go ahead and take a look at . Naturally, you can evaluate
the product we found.

********** End of Sponsor's Message ***********
(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:29 - ID#434108)
How is 'Maggey Valley?'

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:35 - ID#258427)
What's with the DOW...
this morning ...?? up 80 points at the git-go!!??

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:37 - ID#333127)
I have seen little written lately regarding the relationship of oil and gold either pos or neg. I guess nobody sees a link between the price of gold due either to aprice increase or decrease of oil. IMHO a decrease in oil revenues would result in gold sales by oil producing countries.I no longer think a solid up move in oil would result in a strong upside move in gold, any other views would be appreciated.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:38 - ID#347239)
Probally the PPT hard at work.....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:41 - ID#335190)
All Is Well EH! @ America next ? (1929 Depression was 25% unemployment)
Unemployment surges across Asia

SINGAPORE ( Reuters ) - South Korea said Tuesday its unemployment had practically tripled in a year, the latest stunning statistic from Asia, where financial crisis has thrown millions out of work.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment in South Korea leapt to 1.49 million in May from 550,000 a year earlier.

Joblessness is soaring across Asia as companies shed workers. Indonesia alone is likely to have 20 million unemployed by the end of this year, the World Bank said on Monday.

That figure represents 22 percent of the Indonesian workforce and compares with a jobless rate of about five percent in June last year, before the regional crisis hit.

China, with Asia's biggest workforce, has an official tally of 11.5 million people out of work, but analysts say the real figure is much higher since the official statistics do not include so-called "xiagang" workers sent home from idle factories to live on just a fraction of their original wages.

More lay-offs are ahead. Beijing says that reforms to overhaul the ailing state industrial sector will cost 3.5 million workers their jobs this year alone.

Practically the only Asian country bucking the trend of rising unemployment is Taiwan, which on Tuesday reported an unemployment rate of 2.37 percent in May, marginally down from 2.51 percent a year earlier.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:47 - ID#242325)
More bad news for POG from Europe. Gold lease rates to drop below 1%?

Post says European bank reserve lending hurts bullion

Placer Dome Inc PDG
Shares issued 250,016,963 Jun 22 close $16.35
Tue 23 Jun 98 In the News
The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday edition that shares of Placer
Dome fell 15 cents to $16.35 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday, on
volume of 764,200 shares. Market Action columnist John Greenwood notes that
shares of Franco-Nevada Mining fell 35 cents to $25.90 on volume of 86,700
shares. The price of bullion fell $3.60 ( U.S. ) to $295.40 ( U.S. ) an ounce
on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after a Bank of
Spain official said that the European Central Bank will likely lend some of
its gold reserves to traders. Luis Linde, director general of the foreign
department of the Bank of Spain, says that most national banks are
considering lending some of their gold as a way to earn a return on their
holdings. Increasing the amount of gold available to traders will likely
result in lower prices.
( c ) Copyright 1998 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:56 - ID#335190)
Canadian dollar hits North American trading low

The loonie fell to as low as 67.77 cents US, down 0.21 of a cent from its opening price, before bouncing back to close the trading day at 67.94 cents US, down .04 of a cent on the day.

The fallout for Canada has been shrinking demand in Asia for important Canadian commodities, such as oil, steel, lumber, gold and other metals.

"Canada has come a long way in diversifying its exports but, relative to international standards, we're still highly dependent on commodities, which make up 40 per cent of our total exports," said Wright.

Canadian consumers can expect higher prices to show up this fall, particularly for clothing, footwear and certain imported foods, says the Canadian Importers Association.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 09:59 - ID#258427)
Back out of Drooy
at 2 5/ at 2 5/16...out now...commissions lost only. Hope to get back in later...but 2 days in a row of gold down is not helpful ...huh...How is a guy supposed to make a "living" ...grin-thingy

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:03 - ID#350179)
Trying to reassure investors, Japan rallies behind major bank

Gusto Oro - No intiendo lo que dijiste anoche pa'nada

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:07 - ID#402148)
...butter fat, wine grapes, natural gas, copper cathodes, Porche Boxsters, upscale housing, farm produce/grains in S.E. USA...

Anybody else noticing any other "things" disappearing?


Mike Stewart
(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:07 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Gold Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index turn UP last Thursday. This Index is rising at a very slow pace, but if this continues and picks up some steam, the momentum bottom is in. A brief spike down is possible, but the damage will be behind us. I will give this one a few more days to accelerate upward. This indicator is usually early, but is reliable.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have decreased to the 10 issues per day zone. This is not yet at the "all clear" level of 5 or fewer issues per day. It is improving though.

My high volume indicator came in last Wednesday and again on Friday. This is required to put in a bottom. The strange part of this is that the volume came in on up days. I am not quite sure what to make of this.

The 3 month average versus the 12 month average price of gold is a slow, lagging indicator of long term momentum. It has improved dramatically over the last two months and is now at .981. A cross over 1.00 would indicate that the long term momentum is UP. This also looks promising.

Overall, things are improving.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:09 - ID#284255)
Net chatter
If governments don't start going public very soon about the inevitable negative effects of Y2K ( no later than Dec. 1998 ) then the political fallout of the situation will be enormous.
I will predict that no politician who doesn't make a clear and public statement by then will remain in office beyond June of 2000.
I sincerely believe the public will be so enraged that they will be forced out of office even before election season. Imagine the effect this will have on many people's opinion of "big government" when "big government" fails to acknowledge the biggest problem of the latter half of the 20th century in time to do anything about it.
It will be looked at as "criminal". Mark my word.
If you disagree research what the lawyers are preparing for with regards to Y2K and "negligence". It won't take the public long to make the connection between companies being held liable for not being Y2K compliant and the government being liable for the same.

Contact your local politician and ask them what they plan to do.
If they tell you not to worry be very scared.

Bill Grates, Farmer

An Increase in Federal Y2K Awareness

Insurers set to exclude claims for Y2k crashes


(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:28 - ID#43349)
Dollars to China
As the world turns....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:30 - ID#335190)
Stocks open higher as tech, oil stocks surge

Oil producing and drilling companies were supported by a rally in the price of crude.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 85 points at 8,796, and the tech-laden Nasdaq was up 24 points at 1,830 at midmorning.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was up 4/32, or $1.25 on a $1,000 bond, and the yield slipped to 5.65 percent, down from 5.66 percent Monday, in quiet trading. No major U.S. economic reports were due for release Tuesday.

Among active shares, oil services company Schlumberger Ltd. was up 1-1/2 at 68-3/4 and America Online Inc. was up 2-3/4 at 103-7/8.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:44 - ID#258427)
Not a "good" sign" to see
the usd gaining on the yen again...up $1.14 to 138.87...Where is RR when you need him??

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:46 - ID#258427)
Yeah I know...its 1.14

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:52 - ID#254269)
Ouch ! Japanese Yen to be 10 year drag on Asian and Australian markets :,

(Tue Jun 23 1998 10:54 - ID#36156)
XAU in positive territory = +.54

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:02 - ID#350179)
No comment
From the Asian Crisis Toward a New Global Architecture
Address by Michel Camdessus

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:06 - ID#413109)
Don't know about
The rest of you, but the patterns that I'm watching today in both
Gc8Q and XAU.X look very positive to me. The index has based and
is heading up while the metal is still correcting it's recent run-up.
The pattern I read as bullish. The markets are now in a show me
move. They either go up and test the recent highs, or go to new
highs, in a frenzy, lead by the cats and dogs. This would then
be the final blow-off we've been hearing about.
Another small matter. I've noticed the fairer sex is beginning to
wear their skirts almost to the ankles. This is very bearish -guys!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:14 - ID#350179)
Yeltsin Fears Unrest if Crisis Continues

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:25 - ID#335379)
Asian Crisis, and Michael Camdesus... What A Crock...
Hello and good morning MM and all:
Thank you MM for posting this speach...
It sounds like more pleading for IMF money.
He kept saying lets try harder, What a joke,
Thats like saying ,Hey lets add some more rocks to the boat and move them around faster and maybe we won't sink, Oh and lets row harder to.
Everyone of his statements was filled with "lets add more Effort"
type nonsense, while he proposed no real solutions.
HE also seems to think that the IMF can actually solve problems.
The man has issues or is someones pigion.
What a crock of baloney.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:27 - ID#434108)
XAU & GOLD/ Reify et al.
Last week POG surged/recovered about $12/oz., on what is reported to be a short-covering rally, in response to the yen-dollar dance..
The XAU, in contrast, remained "stuck" below 70 -- thus mining
shares did not participate in, or 'confirm'/agree-with, the bull move in gold last week.
From a short-term perspective, my 2-cents guess is that the shares must surge thru the XAU 70 level, in order for a real, sustained up move in gold to get underway. Without this, POG will cintinue to 'waffle', at 'best', and could test its 'worst'.

From a longer-term perspective: any time ( s ) the XAU has been
below 70, it has been, historically, a good time to go long
in the precious metals markets.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:29 - ID#258427)
Oh RR...Where are you
Yen up 1.49 to 139.22...not good for pog...not good....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:30 - ID#288369)
@My dear, esteemed Oil Ministers:
Now we must burn this "Bridge".

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:33 - ID#341189)
I'm mighty suspicious. The XAU/Gold ratio has continued its 8 week drop in the last several days. Today we have a little life, but on low vol. I'm looking for another drop off later in the day.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:34 - ID#284255)
But I asked for an old bottle.
UK wine broker Bordeaux Index spent a fortune fixing its computers for
the year 2000, but now it can't log the recent sale of a Chateau Margaux
1900, reports The Daily Telegraph of London ( England ) . No matter how
hard they tried, the computer kept changing the name to Chateau Margaux

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:36 - ID#14431)
U.S. American Eagle Bullion Sales going up!
I just looked at the U.S. Mint site posted earlier today, and compared sales of golden eagles in 1996, 1997, and 1998 ( so far ) . Maybe someone has already posted this info., but I thought some might find it interesting.

In 1997, total golden eagle ozs. sales by the Mint were 713,750, a 160% increase over 1996 ( 275,000 ozs. )

1998 sales weren't listed on the site ( for that matter, neither were December 1997 sales ) , so I called the Mint and found out the latest numbers, through June 19th of this month. Through June 19th, 552,500 ozs. of golden eagle bullion coins have been sold in 1998, up 89% over the first six months of 1997 ( including ALL of June 1997 ) . The first six months of 1997 ( 292,750 ozs. ) were, in turn, 142% over the first six months of 1996 ( 121,000 ozs. )

golden eagle bullion is flying out the door this June. Through just the 19th of this month, the U.S. Mint has sold 121,500 ozs.; the previous high for a full month is 105,500 ozs., reached this January. The next highest month was this May, when 91,500 ozs. were sold.

Here's the url:

I'll post the silver eagle numbers in a little bit ( they're going down. )

FYI, Fergie
(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:38 - ID#434108)
MM/Yelstin/Nicodemus & baloney
MM - Thank-you also, for the Yeltsin article/url.
Russia's turmoil will ultimately lead it into regressing into
totalitariansism. It all bodes a cold wind 'harbinger' of the
return to the 'seige-mentality' of the Cold War era..... which
is now spreading -due to economic desperation/massive unemployment/deflation/Asian contagion ... around the world.

...."Cheers" !

from my 9//97 kitco post: "When the 'tent' collapses,
it will not be the center-post ( -U.S.A. ) , that goes first;
"it will the side-posts ( -such as Japan, S. Korea etc. ) ..
"and even the stakes ( -such as Russia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. ) that collapse first. .....

..."Cheers" ! ?!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:39 - ID#14431)
Bart's G O L D E A G L E syntax

Please know that I didn't print "golden eagle". Bart's site just doin' his thing...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:45 - ID#411163)
WHere are they getting there gold? Are they buying it in the open market or are they using reserves? In time the amounts do add up?
Any idea?
(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:47 - ID#434108)
fergie/golden eagle sales////calm before the storm
fergie - Thanks for this great info/url.

There is an "Indian Summer" pattern of denial, and a sense of -
'the calm before the storm' ... kind of feeling,
to the current investment climate & markets,
in the good ole U.S.A.

These are, indeed:

the best of times,
and the worst of times.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:48 - ID#284255)
Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:48 - ID#373284)
Get Camdesuss!!! and the Coward Erect is now Emperor of the USA!?!?!?!?!?!?!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:49 - ID#210235)
@Is it a buy yet?
LTCBstock has lost 97.5% of its 1987 price as land prices plunged 80%.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:49 - ID#246224)
SquirrelyOne, Robnoel&All
Thanks for the research you provided on 6/22@21:20 re: paper money printing, etc. It gives one pause. I believe that September of this year will see the beginning of crisis in confidence, August of 1999 the month martial law is declared. If so then we have less then 70 days to complete preparations without bumping into an ever increasing crush of fellow preparers. Once the momentum is established this will become a raging river of turmoil which will scour out all in its path.

Others have/are seeing this in a revelatory way as well. It is interesting to me that the USA had a period of time virually 40 years ( Biblical generation ) were gold was forbidden to its citizens. One of the curses of that earlier time of judgement, no doubt.

It is time to recognize that this is a time of great transition. It is not the end of the world but the end of one age and the beginning of the last age. It is travail and birth, with pain and blood. For 6,000 years men have tried in vain to build an everlasting kingdom which can never be moved. In one second the cumulative efforts of human endeavor will be laid waste. The only Kingdom left will be the Lorship of Christ in the hearts of those who have given themselves to Him. The transition will be as monumental as the difference between the two and the short time in which it will occure.

"Once more He declares, "I will shake, not only the heavens, but the earth as well", so that only immovable, eternal things remain ... Let us therefore give Him due reverence, for our God is a consuming fire."

Letter to the Hebrews

(Tue Jun 23 1998 11:55 - ID#210235)
The EO doesn't go into effect until August 15.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:05 - ID#14431)
Silver Eagle sales by the U.S. Mint trending down.
Sales for Silver Eagles have been trending down. Here are the available figures, in ounces.

1993--5,890,000 ( +6% )
1994--5,540,500 ( -7% )
1995--4,590,000 ( -17% )
1996--3,466,000 ( -24% )
1997--3,636,800 ( +5% )

1998 to date ( 6/19/98 ) --1,240,000.

It's harder to identify trends on the monthly data with silver eagle sales. For example, in 1996, the first six months of the year had only 978,000 ozs. sold, yet the year ended with 3,466,000 ozs. sold. In 1997, 1,741,000 ozs. were sold thru June, but 1996 and 1997 ended the years with similar sales figures.

Rack: I believe that the U.S. Mint buys gold and silver for these eagles coins on the open market, so our reserves ( whatever there might or might not be ) are unaffected by these sales. Anyone out there confirm this?

Thanks, Fergie

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:12 - ID#288295)
fergie @ eagles

I don't know if they use the citizen's stock of gold to mint the golden-eagle, but the last time I had good information, the USG had a stock of about 60 MM oz silver to mint the silver-eagles.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:16 - ID#335190)
GM idles more workers due to Mich. strikes

WARREN, Mich., June 23 ( Reuters ) - General Motors Corp. said Tuesday it as now idled 136,700 North American workers due to two labor strikes, up from 122,400 on Monday afternoon.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:17 - ID#14431)
silverbaron--USG silver stocks
thanks for the info. on the silver stocks used for the silver eagles. Actually, I had heard that the golden eagles were made from gold bought on the open market, but hadn't heard as to the silver eagles. Thanks for clarifying... Can anyone speak to gold the U.S.G. uses for golden eagles?


(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:19 - ID#35571)
sneaking up
The yen/dollar slowly moving up to 140 mark. Bit by bit, inch by inch...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:23 - ID#335190)
Foreign investors sell in April

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Foreign investors pulled $4.7 billion out of Canadian securities in April, selling $6.7 billion in bonds, but buying about $1 billion each of stocks and money-market paper, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

Canadians, meanwhile, continued to look overseas, buying $2.2 billion in foreign stocks and $600 million in bonds, while selling $1.3 billion of U.S. bonds, for total purchases of $1.5 billion.

"This brought to $6.7 billion their investment in the first four months of 1998 and easily surpassed the $4.5 billion investment for all of 1997," the agency said.

The stock purchases were the largest in 16 months. Most of the selling by foreigners was in existing federal bonds -- $5.9 billion being sold by American, European and Asian investors.

Investment dealer Nesbitt Burns said the "huge selloff probably played a big role in driving the Canadian dollar back below 70 cents US in the month."

The bottom line is that "Canadians have plowed $5 into foreign equity and fixed-income markets this year for every dollar that has come into Canada from abroad," economist Sherry Cooper said in a statement.

On a positive note, foreign investment of a further $1.2 billion in Canadian stocks in April brought their purchases since April of last year to almost $13 billion.

Nesbitt Burns noted that foreign investors have shaved their holdings of Canadian bonds by $3.4 billion so far this year.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:24 - ID#307271)
Intraday Indices ( golden-eagle ) all showing a step-function upward even though bullion is off. The XAU should be up at the close.
Thank you Allen for this crystal clear and prophetic post.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:27 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste' Yes true enough, but this is the RepuliCANTS we are
talking about in terms of wiping this heinous, dictatorial garbage of the books so to speak. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, is Newt nothing more than Clinton turned inside out...some days I am not so sure...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:28 - ID#35571)
The grinch still has it's eye on Christmas
An insightful look at the yen/dollar situation and intervention:

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:31 - ID#258427)
FLASH...Silver just
moved up a up .02...wo...w...eee

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:32 - ID#350179)
U.N. inspectors reportedly find nerve gas on Iraqi warheads

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:34 - ID#335190)
Holbrooke arrives for last-chance demands on Kosovo

BELGRADE ( CP ) -- Richard Holbrooke came to Belgrade today with what could be a final warning for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic before NATO takes steps to try to end the fighting in Kosovo.

Also, Canadian fighters prepared to join NATO forces that are within striking distance of Yugoslavia.

"Our goal is to prevent the fighting from escalating into general war," Holbrooke said in Skopje,

Russia opposes Western military pressure on its longtime ally.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:39 - ID#246224)
I'm pretty sure that the 275,000,000 ounces of gold which constitute the bullion and coin held by the Treasury as US golds reserves are in no way used for minting new coin. I recall that Congress made a law stating that this reserve was off limits unless Congress specifily approved of its use. No approval has ever been given.

There are 'strategic reserves' in the form of bullion. This is held in case of national need in time of war, etc. Recently the US Mint 'borrowed' some Platinum from this cache in order for its first run of Platinum Eagles to be produced.

It seems that there are little/big piles of various material sitting here or there. But it is all like treasure in the dragon's cave: various arms of the gov. can't just pluck it up for any old reason. I suppose in this case paperwork has its place.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:39 - ID#254269)
Dow up 78 to 8789; t
I just don't get it, I'm sorry .

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:40 - ID#246224)
Was it the quivering and dead UN inspectors that gave it away?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:45 - ID#335190)
Russia eyes multi-sourced credit package -Chubais

MOSCOW, June 23 ( Reuters ) - Russia is seeking a new credit package worth $10-15 billion from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Western banks and foreign governments, the Kremlin's top international finance negotiatior said on Tuesday.

Anatoly Chubais told a news conference that negotiations with the IMF were "not very simple" but he hoped the talks would be completed within one or two months.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:49 - ID#14431)
Allen@USA, re gold reserves

Allen: thanks for filling me in. As has been discussed on this forum before, I hope the gold is actually there!


(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:51 - ID#413109)
Valid Points
Goldfevr & Carl,Both of your points are valid and I can't find
any reason to disagree. Volume has been bothering me too.
But I calls em as I sees em, and today's beginning looked good to me.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:52 - ID#373284)
The GOLD is not there, Sheller cast a spell on the guards, me and him made off
with the metal...they are guarding bars of cream-cheese...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:58 - ID#258427)
10. NWOD KCAB REVLIS ( read backwards )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 12:59 - ID#255217)
fergie, re A.E. sales
That's good info. I wonder who's doing the buying? I mean, is it Joe Q. Public or goldbugs ( or both ) ? I've always bought through dealers. Never really thought about buying direct from the mint.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:00 - ID#434108)
my interpretation of IBD article, 6/19/98: "An Inside Job at Commerce"
In case you missed it, be sure to read Investor's Business Daily's
front-page article ( 6/19/98
issue ) : "An Inside Job at Commerce".

There appears to be an unfolding scandal...
that is defined by - the surrender, sell-out, and turn-over,
of our State Dept.'s once responsible, accountable stewardship,
and responsibility of/for .... both:
our nation's strategic encryption software, and
vital missile & satellite technology ...
to the Dept. of Commerce.....that the latter might pander to the
Chinese, and supposedly... thus enlist & secure continued campaign
financing for the current Democratic Party power-structure, in the
And now the President waltzes his way to Beijing, and that notorious
that the pandering & groveling, might continue.

Under the guise and pretense of "leadership" and
the current administration has orchestrated people, instituions,
& events ...
to serve their own, immediate political, short-sighted
'interests' ( =$ ) , and perceived necessities ( =$ ) .... for the
sake of their perceived survival,
control, and dominance.

More & more, the smell and stench of a swarm of Neville
is in the air ... esp. in Washington.

Altho the current DNC & Democratic administration may get the
current "Oscar" for betrayal of the nation -- selling us out
to the highest bidder -- for the sake of political
fund-raising/vote-securing "victories" ....
sooner or later...
the burning fuse is finally burning down -- as the American
taxpayer, the American voter, the American patriot & citizen ....are
finally beginning to wake-up to the depth and extent of corruption, that
corrodes the life, liberty & pursuit of happiness, that is the
birthright of this nation, and its people. Meant to be a light of hope,
and lamp of honest example to the world, our nation's government's
sell-out to the highest bidder, is taking us down the road to foreign
intimidation and control.

Sooner or later the American people's 'fuse' of patience, tolerance &
restraint ...
will have burned down to it's point of no-return: and the humble,
honest, core of love of liberty - that is the well-spring of this
nation's people, will demand & rebell - if need-be -- that this kind of
sell-out ... be ... no more.

The electorate and body-politic will wake-up, rest assured. ....and in
indignation at the perpetrated fraud and sell-out, insist on a new

The freedom-loving people of this nation will insist that this sorry
chapter end: this tawdry, tragic time of
corrupt administrations and unbridled 'governing' institutions....where
cancerous beauracracies flourish, where tax & spend is still the order
of the day, where centralized, fractional reserver banking & money
systems divorced of gold-convertibility .... still continues to
manipulate the the economic life-blood of this freedom loving nation,
and still continues to strangle the economic-life-blood
of freedom loving people all over the world -- which first surfaced in
SE Asia, one year ago.

Without restraint, or accountability.... corrupt political powers, using
lackies and bought-off special-interests, are destroying the fabric of
modern civilization.

For the sake of short-sighted political expedience, the soul of the
nation, and of the free-world, is being sacrificed, on altar of lust for
power, under-girded by a crumbling foundation rooted in, and riddled
with .... fear.

Colluding with other nations that are anathema to freedom, for the
expediency of short-term economic & trade/currency pressures, and for
the sake of finding funding-sources for election campaigns...
all this mess ....
strikes at the very heart of America' heritage as an indpendent and
freedom loving nation.

Power-hungry, desperate politcians need to be thrown out....and the
burning fuse of the American elctorate, will, sooner or later, do just

If not, the American people have disintegrated into 'sheep', being led
to the slaughter.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:05 - ID#255217)
Maybe we should be stocking up on cream cheese. How about it, Squirrel? Wonder what kind? I'm picky.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:07 - ID#258427)
AND PM'S continue to lag??
June 23, 1998

The fears of the inactive West seem to becoming true. The conflict
in the Balkans is spreading and may soon be out of control.
Yesterday, the Albanian Prime Minister again appealed for help from
NATO to keep the violence in Yugoslavia's Kosovo province
escalating. He said in Vienna, "I wish to underline the fact that we
Albanians are at the moment on the eve of a war with another nation,
the Serbs, it is not our fault. The Albanian state and government has
to face on its northeastern border a situation of real war with all its
consequences, victims, economic damage, lots of refugees and
considerable increase of defense costs. My government is in
between. We are a good partner of the international institutions that
are monitoring the situation to help a peaceful solution.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:07 - ID#261322)
To Avalon. Personally, I don't really get it either- why the DOW is rising. However, this is not reflective of the broader market, which is not steadily up as of late ( in fact down quite significantly ) . Probably the last hurrah, cause it's gotta go south soon. Like you, I fail to see why a rising US dollar is good for the market-only means they can't compete as well globally, so profits must come down right? Nor is todays rise in oil proces good for the market. It's good for gold though, seeing as the only reason that inflation is so tame ( although note last week's PPI ) is due to low oil. Wait until that goes up, and it will. La Nina should bring a pretty cold winter.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:08 - ID#373284)
Argent, Namaste'
Sheller and me went long cream cheese a long time ago...Buffett, HA!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:12 - ID#258427)
Just call me "good-news Charlie"
What's wrong with this pickture? PM'S dead ...and

June 23, 1998

The PLO/Palestinian Authority said yesterday that if Israel follows
through with its plans for a "greater Jerusalem" it would be a viewed
as a "Declaration of War" against the Palestinian people. The
Palestinian Authority has already filed a complaint with the United
Nations Security Council opposing the plan approved by the Israeli
cabinet Sunday.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:16 - ID#255217)
Well said. I wish more people believed as you do. I have lost confidence in the electorate; at least in a great percentage; they are a bunch of boobs. Perhaps we deserve our fate.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:18 - ID#434108)
from 'obnoxious': "i told you so"
I have posted several posts here at kitco, beginning a month ago...that: Kosovo is most likely the burning fuse that could ignite ....if
not WWIII, at least a gold bull market.

Historically, the Balkans have been a long-simmering caldron of
tension, hatred, human misery and desperation.

When the 'have' nations of this world, finally figure out, that they/we... are intimately interconnected with the 'have-not'
nations of the world....we will build an economic & political
world that is universally and unconditionally
committed to the value and sanctity
of human life
(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:20 - ID#434108)
We have met the enemy - & - he is us.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:21 - ID#207145)
All the economic equity in the pie in the sky world will not help Balkan countries. The will rant and rave forever.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:21 - ID#258427)
Can't even "sell" money these days
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - New
York City is sitting on a pile of
money that it just can't get rid of.

The Department of Transportation
has collected 17,500 pounds of
coins from 62 countries that were
illegally deposited in the city's parking meters.

But so far, there have no takers for the heap of money -- which the city has
been trying to sell for $1 a pound, department spokesman David Billig said

The hoard consists of more than a million coins collected from the meters
over the past four years, he said.

To discourage the practice of using non-U.S. coins as slugs, the
transportation department would not reveal exactly where the coins were

Cashing in the coins for U.S. currency is not an option. Not only would
separating the coins be a daunting task, but most banks will accept only bills
for conversion, Billig said.

Considering each coin was used in the place of a quarter, the money
represents a loss to the city of more than $250,000, about one day's takings
from New York's parking meters.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:25 - ID#207145)
Note bottoms put in by all grains, beans. CRB is ready to begin a rise.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:25 - ID#258427)
Special warning to Goldbugs (off topic)

Doctors: Combining Viagra,
poppers could be deadly

June 23, 1998
Web posted at: 1:03 p.m. EDT ( 1703 GMT )

LOS ANGELES ( AP ) -- People who
take Viagra along with party stimulants
known as "poppers" may be mixing a
deadly cocktail, doctors warn.

Poppers are legal, inhaled stimulants
that heighten sensation by dilating
blood vessels. The impotence pill Viagra also dilates blood vessels, and
combining the two drugs can result in a dangerous drop in blood pressure.

Three men reportedly died after using Viagra, poppers and crystal
methamphetamine earlier this month, said Kathy Watt, executive director of
a drug treatment center.

Poppers are said to be especially popular among gays, and the potentially
lethal combination has leaders of the homosexual community worried.

"As Viagra becomes more available through the party circuit, the
combination is just going to turn deadly," said Steve Martin, mayor of West
Hollywood, where about a third of the city is gay. "You're just going to see
people dropping like flies."

Nightclubbers take crystal methamphetamine for the high. They swallow
Viagra pills to restore the sexual potency that the meth takes away. They
snort poppers to enhance their sexual experience.

Pfizer Inc., the maker of Viagra, issued a warning about inhaling recreational
nitrates such as poppers in mid-May.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:26 - ID#43460)
97 usmint sales figures
Ever stop to wonder why the US mint pulled the plug on bullion coin sales last winter? This link to this URL is found from the bullion page linked to the USmint URL I posted this AM. You can get the usmint homepage by just deleting the page specifiers:

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:35 - ID#207145)
Harm's way.
Transfer of sensitive technology to Chinese may have put Clinton in harm's way. I wish no harm to anyone, not even WJC, but the water has been poisoned with recent revelations. I am probably on of those haters, but i don't want harm to come to anyone.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:35 - ID#43460)
I don't know why the Kitco spot banner is not working for me today
See Spot. See Spot run. Run spot run. Run run run. Er, Spot, wake up, dewd.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:37 - ID#33184)
Baltic Banking Group - Economic summary

During Allan Greenspan's recent testimony on capital hill, he indicated that interest rates may have to be raised in order to slow down the USA economy, which is in danger of overheating. The political process requires Mr. Greenspan to be indirect, circumspect and never insult anyone in authority to change the rules concerning how the Federal Reserve Board runs monitory policy. In our view, the Fed has already raised interest rates and tightened monitory policy. In March of l997 the nominal Fed Funds rate was raised slightly. During that last year the effective rate has further increased due to a lowering of the inflation rate. This conclusion requires that you accept the official CPI numbers. In addition, the yield curve, the difference between the short term and long term interest rates, has narrowed. This is more the result of long term rates dropping then short term rates increasing but never the less it is a reliable indicator of actual monitory policy and it indicates that the Fed has been tightening. There is a lot of talk about how things are different this time. How the USA economy has entered a new phase of higher growth without inflation because of an increase in productivity due to corporate restructuring and the computer chip revolution. The people running the Fed know this is claptrap but can not say so publicly because that would insult almost everyone in a position of power that they must deal with on a daily basis. Moreover, they would never be forgiven for being right.

The Fed knows that they should more aggressively be raising interest rates now to slow down the economy but will not do so until the official inflation numbers indicate that there is an inflation problem. That will be too late to engineer a soft landing. In our view, it is already to late and in any case we do not have a high degree of confidence that the Fed has ever had the capacity to do anything more than effect the inflation rate. Accordingly, when the correction in the financial markets comes, it will appear to be made worse by the delay in raising interest rates caused by political constraints. The conventional wisdom is that the stock market will top six to nine months after the Fed changes monetary policy to fight inflation or increases the discount rate twice. That wisdom must now be filtered for the double talk Fed officials are required to engage in for current political correctness. Our view is that tightening of monetary policy has already started but will not be acknowledge until inflation is seen by all to be a problem. Last month's CPI increase of 3/10 of 1% is one straw in the wind.

What is the real inflation rate? Is the CPI the correct and only number that needs to be considered? If we apply a 20% weighting to security and real estate assets then the current inflation rate is 6%. With the current round of competitive devaluation's in Asia, the CPI is unlikely to increase in a free trade environment. The pressure to protect local jobs from the newly cheaper consumer goods from Asia will increase. If the response is newly imposed trade barriers then the conventional expectation is for a significant contraction in trade and a downward cycle for the stock market. When predicting the future course of markets, what everyone knows is generally not worth knowing. Thinking laterally: what would the expectation be if we do not have new trade barriers? That we will not have a significant contraction in world trade or a downward cycle for the stock market? In our view the current correction in Asia is the natural result of a classic over capacity in production which is caused by a misallocation of money and over investment in capital projects which is inherent in a boom. This biggest risk too the continued dominance of the US dollar is that the US authorities, with IMF and World Bank participation, will provide too much liquidity to Asia through expanding the supply of US dollars available to Asia and so cause a run to gold and hard assets. The problem is that no one agrees on how much is too much. What is clear is that the global supply of US dollars is being increase significantly. The Europeans are still debating the % of gold backing for the ECU. They are backing their paper currency with more than more paper.

Then there is the g2k millennium bug problem. Will most computer networks crash on January 1, 2000? It is frankly inconceivable to us that most government officials will solve this problem ever, let alone by January 1, 2000. Millions of AOL users were without their network for 24 hours because of a one line error in computer code. The g2k problem requires fixing millions of lines of code on many million computers and embedded computer chips. It is certainly possible that people will panic when they realise that they may have to live without computer networks and electricity. The power of computer networks has provided undreamed of applications at ever decreasing fractions of cost. The 50% drop in the price of computing power every 18 months has permitted a patch and paste addition to existing software systems over the last 40 years. There was never a sufficient financial incentive to do a complete redesign. Hardware has never been more than 3% of the cost of operating a computer system. It is the software and operating it that cost 97%. This has resulted in most large organisations using mainframe software riddled with g2k bugs. For many of these systems, the documentation is incomplete or non existent. Finding all the offending code and fixing it by January 1, 2000 will not happen. The only alternative is to put in place a wholly new hardware and software built to be g2k compliant. Remembering that 97% on the investment over 40 plus years has been in software and applications the correction needed to flush out this problem is certainly large. The only question is how bad the dislocation will be. We are not of the doom and gloom school. We expect the problem to be solved but only after more dislocation and cost then currently expected or factored into financial projections.

A 1.6% rate of return on the DJIA, a PE of 35 on the S&P and 85 on NASDAQ shares are only the tip of the iceberg. There has been enormous overstatements in the earnings of public companies in the USA. Maybe by as much as half. The use of stock options to compensate corporate executives without charging the cost of the lost value to shareholders as an ordinary and necessary expense of the company is just one example. The wholesale use of restructuring charges as one time extraordinary items is another. And then there are the hidden and unaccounted for potential losses from the potential default on counter parties to derivative transactions. The current practice is to pretend that the banks' risks are covered because one client's risk of the pound going down is being balanced by another client's bet that the pound will go up. Financial institutions are not properly reserving for the risk that the losing side will not pay. Many of today's bright stars will be tomorrow's bankrupts. We expect this to get nasty. The public will demand jail time for scapegoats.

There are some interesting historical footnotes which can be written about today and to compare the 1929 high with today's market. We indulge ourselves for a moment. In 1929, the speculative market leader was Radio or Radio Corporation of America, also called RCA. It was a spin off from General Electric Company, Tomas Edison's bequest to America. During the 1980s, GE reacquired RCA. The investment bankers earned fees for both restructurings. GE is today the stock market's largest company measured by stock market capitalisation: about $280 billion. Number two is Microsoft at about $220 billion. Mr. Bill Gates is today, America's richest man and Microsoft has been the speculative market leader during the bull market from the1982 low. Both RCA and Microsoft have applied cutting edge technology to achieve market leadership. 1997 net sale were 11.4 billion for Microsoft and 89.5 billion for GE. With market capitalisation's of $220 and $280 billion, that means Microsoft is selling for 19 and GE for 3 time net sales. Truly extraordinary by any standard. The PE ratios are 51 and 31 respectively. Both are well run companies which have created enormous value for their shareholders. Mr. Jack Welch, of GE, was voted America's #1 manager on the front page of the June 7, 1998 issue of Business Week. Mr Gates is also widely admired. Is the market correct in valuing Microsoft at $209 billion more than one year's net sales?

We think that Microsoft is a wonderful company and we wish Mr. Gates continued future success. Windows is a great product and we do not think that Microsoft has violated any of America's anti trust laws. We do not even think that they have a monopoly. In our view, the windows operating system is already a commodity and the correct market for anti trust purposes is computing capacity and not personal computer operating systems. Accordingly, in our view, Microsoft has significantly less then 3% of market share. Maybe less than 1%.

Ms. Janet Reno has recently admitted that she has gone back to using a paper and pencil because she can not relate to her personal computer. This confession of computer illiteracy comes from the attorney general of the USA Federal Government. This is the same government servant who has alleged that Microsoft has violated the anti trust laws by bundling its' net browser with the Windows operating system. Microsoft has no choice but to continue bundling and integrating more and more applications into its' Windows systems if it wishes to hide the fact that the operating system is a commodity which is already obsolete.

The personal computer market has recently seen a shift in popularity to cheaper and less powerful computers. This is because, with the explosion of Internet, all that is needed for the average user is a computer that can communicate with the merchants on the net. They now provide undreamed of power and software capabilities for next to free. The so called network computer has already arrived. The error Ms. Reno and all of her ilk have made is to confuse objects with processes, things with ideas. There is no such thing as a personal computer or network computer as such. The designation is not dependant on anything that is possible to measure about the physical object or about what it can do. The designation is dependent on how it is used. And how people now have started to use computers on the net has made the so called personal computer obsolete. The division of labour has changed. There is no need for the user to install or maintain new applications on a personal computer. The network is sufficiently reliable so that people can use a smaller and simpler computer connected to the net to accomplish far more then the so-called personal computer can today or the so-called mainframe did last year or the so-called supercomputer did a few years ago. Microsoft understands this. That is why it can not settle with the justice department if that requires it to stop bundling applications. It must continue to offer more and more applications for free or it will die. The Internet will make it irrelevant. This change in the process of how computing power and application is used has resulted in the function of the operating system of personal computers being replaced by net browsers. There has been a dimensional shift. Ms. Reno is fighting over yesterday's non issue but for that error Microsoft's shareholders will pay.

The doubling of computer capacity every 18 months makes most computer technology products obsolete in very short order. Investors currently have put an enormous market premium on Microsoft is spite of the fact that it too is subject to technological obsolescence. Some time in the future investors will apply a discount. Timing, of course, is everything. The last large private investment banking house on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs, has decided to sell its' shares to the public. The insiders know when to sell to the widows and orphans. $30 billion of value will be created partly out of thin air. Each partner will get shares worth $125 million but only it John Q. Public is on the other side of the transaction buying what the insiders are selling. Insiders generally do better at market timing than the general public. We suggest it would be more prudent to buy shares of investment bankers when the insiders of those same investment banks are buying. The NYC stock market has opened this morning with the DJIA running up 200 points. Do not be fooled. This is the last leg up we indicated that we expected in the last report and concerning which we will issue a buy put option on the XMI index when we see the final top which will by days and not months.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:42 - ID#207145)
Gold nearing bottom,
Everything is bottoming, or has bottomed. CRB encluded. I smell something about to happen with the 30% overvalued dollar. Heck, I may be getting optimistic about Gold.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:43 - ID#347235)
Bill D
If people are stupid enough to mix drugs without consulting a Doctor or Pharmacist first they deserve the results. I do not feel sorry for them. I take a total of 8 medications every day, but, they are ALL prescribed by the SAME doctor who monitors my condition to do otherwise is sheer folly! Shalom

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:47 - ID#207145)
Won't see 200 anytime soon. Headed up. Calling short term bottom in CRB index. Let's see what happens. Crystal ball clouding up. Later.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:47 - ID#287186)
ALL: Argent & Tolerant1 need help!
Anybody know how to make cream cheese from Goat's Milk?
Hmmmmmm - more Net searching to do some evening.
I can't recommend a cow since they need too much space to graze, require too much feed storage for over winter, are pickier about forage, and are harder to hide from 2-footed predators looking for viddles.
You could keep the goat in the house! Hard to do with a cow.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:51 - ID#207145)
Balkans, Middle East,
Drop'em boys or you will unnecessarily depress yourselves. No solution to either age old hatreds. Repeat, there is no solution.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:53 - ID#431366)
Nobody but us wants to use Gold & Silver for money
So Gold 'n Silver are heading DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, into that roaring pit of fire {from burning all the paper currency.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:54 - ID#207145)
Viagra is for the insecure.
In the year 2525, if man is still alive, if woman can survive they may find.......

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:57 - ID#227290)
blooper & solutions

I have to disagree with you. There is one solution to ethnic hatred. It's called segregation. That usually brings peaceful relations between peoples.

The Preacher

(Tue Jun 23 1998 13:59 - ID#207145)
Fellow Georgian I believe. Radical idea that i believe is shared by each and every race, except for democrats.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:02 - ID#207145)
Touch of country in the city.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:05 - ID#373284)
Blooper, Namaste' 13:35
What goes around, comes around...and I hope he got the same travel agent as Ron Brown...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:09 - ID#207145)
You don't think Ron was seen fondling Hillary's breasts in the same Wash. restaurant as Vince Foster do you?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:10 - ID#338228)
Any news on SSRIF? TIA

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:10 - ID#254269)
tolerant 1; Look on the bright side. Maybe the Chinese will keep him over there

You know, on second thought, they probably don't want him either.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:14 - ID#229277)
DOW is just nutty
After the Nikkei get's knocked down 254 close to 15000, the DOW opens up 70 and then parks there all day, hugging in a 20 pnt rang between 8780 and 8800. Soon we'll see what the programs did to it. I'm on the po man's 20 minute delay.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:16 - ID#348127)

can anyine tell why silver is up?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:17 - ID#373284)
Squirrel, Namaste' This is apparently a place where you may find an answer if
you are interested

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:17 - ID#207145)
Clinton SS, Goebles like spinsters,
FBI, ATF, Janet Reno Waco horror stoties, Ruby Ridge Gestapo operations. Come with me, are your papers in order. Era of BIG GOVERNMENT IS OVER. These guys are straight out of hell. But soccer moms love it. They are vaginas.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:20 - ID#373284)
Who cares why silver is up, it is the right direction. Argent you are right, why do the
Chinese want him, they got their monies worth...Blooper...the thought of the First Bunt Cakes breasts...gag...gag...gag...YUK!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:22 - ID#288186)
mapleman; It appears both gold&silver stayed in a tight range. I have no idea
why Silver is slightly up. July Silver@ 5.340 Aug Gold@ 296.50

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:25 - ID#35571)
Try if you want major indices closer to realtime.

I don't think the DOW is so nutty. It's the money the grassroots keeps
pumping in. Their attention span is kinda short and any problem that
dosn't get mentioned for a couple of days is dicounted as having been
taken care of.

This is the TV generation. Some young adults have spent well over 50,000
hours learning what life was all about by watching television as they
grew up. To them life is always full of significant events and problems
that are always disposed of in either a half hour or an hour with the
worst case scenario being one that has to be continued until next week.

They're much differnet than the pioneer generation or the depression
generation, etc.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:27 - ID#212197)
@Cage Rattler: Thanks for your 13:37
Very exciting post!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:27 - ID#373284)
Gollum, Namaste' I most certainly hope your Lady is feeling much, much, better!
And are you trying to tell me that Mr. Ed can't really talk!!! What!!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:27 - ID#14431)
gagnrad, re U.S. Mint coin sales
Actually, they didn't pull the plug on the sales, they are simply over six months behind in the entries for the web site! I called 'em and got current data.

Here are the latest figures:

Dec. '97--149,500 ozs. sold ( I made a mistake on my previous posts this morning; this is the highest month's sales in the last seven and a half years, not this June's tally to date. But June might surpass last December when all the figures are in, the way sales are going. )

1998 monthly totals

January --105,500 ozs. sold
February --75,000
March --88,000
April --71,000
May --91,500
June --121,500
up to 6/19/98 )

Annual golden eagle Sales

( thru 6/19/98 )


(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:28 - ID#35571)
And silver is not strongly up compared to gold, it is a sneaky slowly
gaining strength kind of thing. Like when someone big is steadily
accumulating but keeping it quiet.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:29 - ID#267276)
Do not take Viagra and Exlax togeather. You wont know if your cuming or going.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:30 - ID#26793)
London morning gold and silver news

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:30 - ID#207145)
What is nutty,
Questioning the market while losing your ass in PMs. Before a blowup, one is warned. Whats wrong with making money.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:30 - ID#350179)
Cause the Lone Ranger mixed viagra in with the sugar cubes?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:31 - ID#254269)
Quote of the Day; " Half of our life is spent trying to find something to do with the
time we have rushed through life trying to save ".

Will Rogers.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:31 - ID#288186)
Gollum; I think you've got somethin', Sherlock!!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:31 - ID#266105)

Doctors: Combining Viagra, poppers could be deadly

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:32 - ID#288369)
@the fire of june.
and the once-thought-to-be frozen pendulum will finally swing as a certain and swift razor leveling through the fluttering masses......and their beat will stop.

At it's will, a phosphous tipped finger will point and strike this plentifulus plate of papyrus....streaming smoke from dreams flying away....masked as the cool shadow of a blackbird.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:35 - ID#434108)
Preacher/blooper & solutions
what is this ....?!
Is it a veiled claim for the false-virtue and pretense of the
supposedly 'superior' way of dealing with things:
... 'segragation'...'separation'.... or is this nothing but
another example of the claim of regression into polarization,
hatred and ultimately war-mongering, rooted in
bigotry, cynicism, & fear. .....?!?

Are their among us, the devoted students of, & investors in, gold... those who hold forth in pretense the belief in separating human-kind from itself, as if some are more human than others.

Such cynical, condescending ideas about solving Kosoivo's
ethnic problems via "separation" in the face of liberty,
descecrate the integrity of gold money, and all it stands for --
the human dignity and the sanctity of human-life -- of all peoples everywhere, no matter their, yours & my ... religion,
ethnicity, and/or ideology.

Open your minds, ( some of ) my fellow-kitcoites, and your hearts...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:36 - ID#207145)
Studio R,
Got PTEN at 9, and three quarters. What does brotherinlaw say? How are you doing? Been on vacation.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:37 - ID#26793)
Speculation continues over possible Russian devaluation.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:37 - ID#35571)
Did you notice that the London report talked about gold being
down and ended with:

Silver was quiet and was following gold. It was last quoted unchanged from Monday's $5.34/$5.37 New York close.

I thought if one thing was following another thing and the thing
it was following went down, then it would go down too, wouldn't it?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:38 - ID#254269)
Drudge Report lists Official China Delegation accompanying the President;

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:39 - ID#252127)
Something drastic

Every mid range to large gold producer with a solid balance sheet should:

1. Close out their profitable hedges.

2. Put their higher cost mines on standby.

3. Use the partial down time to study and implement means to cut future mining costs drastically.

4. Whatever gold is still produced from their active mines should be sold by a 'producer combine' consisting of input fron their most gold savy people.

5. Central Bank sales and gold loans may hurt for a short period. Loans will never come back to the CB's, unless the bullion banks and the poorly planned gold projects are taken out thru bankruptcy followed by a much higher gold price. NOT TO WORRY, the Mines that couldn't be operate profitably by the original miners will have essentially the same problems when re-opened by others.

6. Lets face reality, the CB's are the biggest of the various problems effecting golds fall and
7. Last the normally unhedged producers should be asked to join 'the combine' after its determination is evident. In other words its time for a War of Justice.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:39 - ID#26793)
I thought it was up 2 cents right after that report was released.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:40 - ID#373284)
Oh yeah, forgot to mention last night while cooking
dinner on the grill one of the kids complained that their steak was not done to perfection...I said, I'll fix it and fed it to Molson a four legged friend from next door sitting near the table. I then proceeded to impress upon the child that little Korean children were eating bark and such...and put some on his plate and said have a dandy time little man.

Got this little fella's attention...he came and apologized later and said it would not happen his credit...after the apology I cooked him a dandy and we sat alone and discussed life the universe and why paper is not a barber shop...NEXT!!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:41 - ID#229277)
Gollum: USA investors and TV induced attention deficit disorder
They expect quick fixes to problems and... they're right, sort of. Look at how the Fed stepped in to punish those bad yen shorts. The truly evil thing that both TV and movies teaches the uncritical mind is that everything just turns out ok in the end. Applied to the investment world: "Hang in there with your overvalued mutual funds that you just bought. Everything will be fine."

What's your take on the Nikkei hystrionics? Any corelation to Japanese television viewing habits? They used to have nationally televised farting contests...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:43 - ID#35571)
Yes, I think it went up a bit right after that too. I was just noting
the non-sequiter the guy made in his very own statement. Looking at the
charts silver's been looking steady to up all day compared to gold which
has been down mostly with a slight recovery from time to time. Not much
volatility to either one.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:44 - ID#26793)
@Tolerant1: some info on Judy Shelton

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:46 - ID#207145)
Japan, Asia.
Put your money there with a 4 year time horizon. If you think this is comical, then WATCH the MONEY FLOWS in the next year. Put some money in gold also, as recovery in Asia = draw downs in commodities. Also, don't get too smug with Japan, as they are a value. They also have more cash , less debt than we do.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:48 - ID#288369)
You will be rich again!....all is swell ( pten ) ( and with me also ) . happiness. studio.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:48 - ID#421269)
@ Studio R

Did you bring us all some of that , which brings forth such golden words ?

How the heck have you been?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:51 - ID#373284)
Donald_A, Namaste' Thank you my friend. I have been doing my homework, at
this point I feel like I have been dating her for the past six years.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:51 - ID#434108)
Golden Cure for Deflation Contagion
A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation Contagion

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his fellow 'founding
fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever allow the
banking system to control their money, first by inflation, then by
deflation; their children will one day wake up homeless on the
continent their fathers conquered."

The world's financial and monetary systems may be likened to a
gigantic teetering circus-tent. An when the tent finally collapses.
It will not be the center-post that goes first; it will be the
side-posts; and even the stakes."

The "stakes" are the Asian Tiger economies. The "side-posts"
are the most important trading partners of the U.S. This includes
the strategic national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The "center-post"
is the U.S. economy, including its stock markets.

The "tent" is the world-economy, built on a mountain of artificial
money and credit, created out of thin air, by a politically
engineered and dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has taken
generations, to perfect this art and master this tune, that plays to
the drum-beat of billions of dollars of false wealth created per

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to counterfeit
money, including by governments or banks.

And now what: Gold going up?in the midst of spreading
Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the Kitco site for about a year now; and it is
evident from the discussions there, that most of us are still
deluded by, and caught up in, the artificial Santa-Clause
Economy built on the BIG LIE: money and credit created out of
nothing. This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent "economic summer" that may last for generations. All
the while the masses misperceptions grow, while the
money-masters of power, in the world, in control of interest rates,
of credit availability, and of the volume of money flooding the
world.they thus become economic dictators in hiding.ruling
over the ultimate value of the money you earn, spend, invest,
and save for a 'rainy-day" or retirement, or the kids'' education.

The world over central banks have evolved with their
governments blessings into a quiet, awesome club of collusion
and unbridled power. They hold in their hands the destinies of
nations, and the fate of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th
century banker of England said: "Give me control of a nation's
money, and I care not who makes the laws."

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as deflation
intensifies. Just as it is very natural for gold to go up in
inflationary times, as well. That is because the inflation and
deflation are happening to the paper currency, the artificial
money of the realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to gold.
And it is artificial, unbacked money and credit, once it is spawned
out across the world, that ebbs and flows by the billions and
trillions, thus distorting and manipulating the economies of the
world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is set in motion, the
economies and countries grow increasingly out of balance, and
ultimately out of control. And it almost always starts showing up
in an obvious way with with currency instability, which was the
root of the problem to begin with - unreal currencies. Just ask the
hundreds of thousands of Asians who have just been laid off, or
reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost overnight.

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion grow, because we
seem to live in enduringly good times. And the BIG LIE  that
artificial money created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions of higher
learning, in the board rooms of our most brilliant corporations, at
the family dinner table discussions of what we studied in school
today, and in the not so noble halls of government offices across
our fair land. What we have failed to understand, or have
forgotten, is that the basic standard, the unit of a nation's money
-- the medium of exchange and store of value -- is the foundation
of, and the fundamental building block, upon which, a nation's
entire economy is built. It is essential for this unit, this standard of
money, to be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by any and every

Historically only gold money, or money and credit units
convertible to and backed by gold, have endured as real money,
immune to both inflation and deflation. Gold is independent and
free of manipulation and control by any governmental powers
and special interests. John Adams' words of 200 years ago are
just as timely and important today: "All the perplexities,
confusions and distresses in America arise, not from defects in
the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or
virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of
coin, credit and circulation."

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted currency,
regardless of governments that rise and fall, and economies that
go through there natural, moderate, non-manipulated cycles of
economic summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them, and disciplines
their lust for power and control, along with their intimate banking
friends. This means that economies no longer remain in balance,
and ultimately, over-extended economic summers, are followed
by inevitable, and very painful economic winters. All of this
excess to excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if a
gold standard money system were established and honored,
among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian School of
Economics put it this way: "The eminence of the gold standard
consists in the fact that it makes the determination of the
monetary unit's purchasing power independent of the measures
of governments. It wrests from the hands of the "economic czar"
their most redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is furiously
attacked by all those who expect they will benefit by bounties
from the seemingly inexhaustible government purse." ( The truth
and wisdom from this master-teacher of true economics, might
help us better understand why there has been so much media
coverage of reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming credit-creation
world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden international economy with
careening markets and collapsing paper currencies. This
debt-ridden, artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly inflated
values. World-wide, property values are beginning to feel the
effects of spreading deflation. The recent deflationary free-fall in
Hong Kong property values, will likely spread next to Japan and
China. The deflationary world economy is like a Titanic, and their
are never going to be enough IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy beginning to mire
in debt and growing deflationary momentum, is the overcapacity
of industrial and technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and now, the world
is not only awash in red-ink, but also in a glut of goods and
services that most people don't want, and fewer and fewer can
really afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the recipe for
spreading, world-wide deflation, with ominous implications. When
desperate Asian nations want to import new cars to sell here at
half last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers and
trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons of gold: gold
unassailable, real money, and gold as a haven of capital
preservation in times of economic crisis and currency turmoil. We
got ourselves into this mess by allowing our governments and
special interests to divorce our money from gold backing and
convertibility. At one time, our currency was originally as good as
gold, a virtual receipt for real money. It was even printed, right
there on each and every U.S. piece of currency: "payable to the
bearer on demand in gold". It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit instruments
at certain times, just as inflation does at other times, because
they can be controlled and manipulated by the powers that be.
Naturally stable economies, based on real money, are immune to
inflation and deflation, and the powers that be -- their hands are
tied, by the immunity of, and independence of gold. I have an
early 1930s' chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area entitled: "What
Makes the U.S. Economy Tickand Why it is a Ticking
Time-Bomb." The economy's turned out to have a longer fuse
than I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse is,
indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932 Homestake Mining
appreciated approximately 500% while the Dow was crashing in
wave after deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit themsort of the
way growing numbers of people are feeling in Asia. And the
"Asian Contagion" is spreading, regardless of our self-absorbed,
insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in ( confiscated ) the
American people's gold in the early '30s - at the old price at about
$20/oz.; and then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this no doubt
helped the HM price along its bull market way. But I wouldn't wait
for another confiscation, or another FDR. The new baby bull
market in gold is here, now. And before its over, there's going to
be quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of the '80s &
'90s, will not be able to get out of the same 'sell' door at the same
time; it could get very messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing cycle runs its
course, there will be a new dawn, and new day. The peoples of
the nations of the world, their governments and bankers
included, will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and gold-defined
credit instruments. These will be the basic monetary
building-blocks, the life-giving ingredients -- like a healthy,
renewed, purified economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies. This will come, in
a new millennium of economic nation building, in which a thriving
world economy will create and produce enough for all peoples,

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color, have an equal
opportunity to contribute; and enjoy the fruits of their work, and
their entrepreneurial talents. May we all learn to live in a new
world, in a cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of the human soul,
the inherent freedom of the human spirit, and the sanctity of
human life.

David Blair Macrory,

2 February 1998

( posted at )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:51 - ID#210235)
@Yessir, Mr. Studio, the fires of June
will be in the history books, in the same category as the dust bowl. It is manifesting itself in many ways and at many levels. Watch history unfold and be amazed.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:53 - ID#207145)
Studio R,
Glad to hear it. More cautious on PTEN, tho. Plan to be out by July 23.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:56 - ID#207145)
Studio R,
Bet you are glad to see the price of oil go up. We need a bottom and an OPEC every month you know.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 14:57 - ID#350179)
Japan is a sideshow...
Kremlin announces 'anti-crisis' economic plan

Russian `Untouchables'? TV series aims to make heroes of tax police

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:01 - ID#374307)
Shorts getting out or longs getting in???
ABX up $.40 on 2.6mm shares on the TSE. 3.8mm shares traded on Friday with a $.50 up move.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:02 - ID#288369)
@Isure...of what?.......
I am better.....absent, having not been good company for two weeks....Enraged by oil speculators and living the effects of their folly.....alas!, harboring hate hardens the heart.

I have regained some of my wit......and now, la. news for ya'.....laura ( #2 ) is headed for l.s.u...........see ya' down there! studio.snakepit

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:04 - ID#35571)
I think a person's thinking is highly influenced by the language he speaks. If you speak English you think in English. If you speak Japanese
you think in Japanese.

Our western languauges make it very easy to think in terms of causality. That is to say, our verbs are declined in terms of causal/temporal tense.
We can speak of how what happened yesterday led to what is happening now and should or ought to lead to what may happen tomorrow. It makes our thinking very materialistic in devising schemes and plans to increase our
material wealth.

The Japanese language has it's verbs declined in terms of social status. You pick a different form depending upon whether you are speaking to a
superior or a subordinate or a family member or a man out on the street.
It makes it very difficult to do good Physics in Japan but easy to be aware of "face" and honor.

I was reading some statistics many years ago and at that time ( I don't
know what it is now ) Tokyo was the biggest city in the world in terms of
population and population density. In that year there were seven murders
in Tokyo for the entire year ( you might see that many in New York in
just a few minutes ) .

Even with the interest rates down as far as they are and the economy facing almost certain disaster the Japanese private savings rate is one of the highest in the world.

So the Nikkei is suffering from a kind of schizophrenia as the old values of pre war Japan and the values of westernization are brought to a boil by seeing in the economic defeat of Japan a rerun of the great tragedy of finding thier godlike father figure emporer was just a man after all and that Japan had lost the war by capitulation.

It would have been no dishonor to die fighting to the last man.

So, to hold on to savings and old values, or to accept restructuring and admission of failure, that is the question and one difficult for western language speaking people to undrstand the import of.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:05 - ID#210235)
@Financial Times gold forum in the news

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:08 - ID#207145)
Blaming them is like blaming God when it dosen't rain.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:11 - ID#340302)
Microsoft wins against the government...Paradise is regained for free enterprise in America.

This is truly one of the giddiest markets I've seen this past decade. On the basis of essentially no news of any real significance, everything is going through the roof.

It really is time to sell all the gold and gold stocks and get in there!

C'mon fellas....DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY!


It's not too late to ride the FEEL GOOD WAVE!

Let's get in there.

Sometimes you gotta just dive right in!

Oh, yeah.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:15 - ID#340302)
Oh, I honor of the Prez's Trip to China....
Sing it fellas....







Strad Master
(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:18 - ID#250297)
Good job!!!
TOLERANT1: Great story about teaching your kid some values. He's a lucky guy to have you for a Dad! Don't let the pollitically correct schools undo what you've taught him.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:20 - ID#288186)
The prez, the prez...Watch what he does, not what he la la la la la.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:28 - ID#350179)
Bad news for Squirrel(s)
"We must revert to a policy of shooting on sight," said Viscount Brookborough.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:28 - ID#433172)
Ideal solutions
Human beings at this point in time have no ideal solutions to anything. Gold included Gold can only work as a measure of value as long as it remains scarce, so it's value depends on it's relative absence.

Bosnia should have been carved up into seperate areas for the warring parties to live in, the same for the rest of " Yugoslavia". What we need is peace, pure and simple. It will take generations for the hatred to dissapate, but it will. Leave them together and the war goes on and on and it cynical to face facts? Daydreams won't work, Bosnia will be proof of that.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:30 - ID#209265)
Some off-topic humour
Well Kitcoites-

The nominations are in for the 1997 Darwin Award. I'm not sure how voting takes place to decide the winner, but all the candidates displayed a great deal of creative ingenuity, and I'm sure the voters will have a hard time deciding.

Here are the candidates:

Derrick L. Richards, 28, was charged in April in Minneapolis
with third-degree murder in the death of his beloved cousin,
Kenneth E. Richards. According to police, Derrick suggested
a game of Russian roulette and put a semiautomatic pistol
( instead of the more traditional revolver ) to Ken's head and
then pulled the trigger.

In February, according to police in Windsor, Ont.,
Daniel Kolta, 27, and Randy Taylor, 33, died in a head-on
collision, thus earning a tie in the game of chicken they
were playing with their snowmobiles.

MOSCOW, Russia - A drunk security man asked a colleague,
at the Moscow bank they were guarding, to stab his
bulletproof vest to see if it would protected him against
a knife attack. It didn't, and the 25-year-old guard died
of a heart wound.

Phillipsburg, NJ. An unidentified 29 year old male choked
to death on a sequined pastie he had orally removed from an
exotic dancer at a local establishment. "I didn't think he
was going to eat it," the dancer identified only as "Ginger"
said, adding "He was really drunk."

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:31 - ID#373284)
Strad Master, Namaste' That is the best part...he ain't mine.
Just a little kid who ran smack dab into a barbarian with a completely different set of principles...although I have to keep my eye on Molson my four legged friend...he keeps getting deliveries from kinkos and then handing these flyers to the kids when they get here...I think free steaks appeal to him...I think Molson may be a socialist...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm figures...he is a dog after all is said and done...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:32 - ID#288369)
@God of Fire..........
june.......the month of wedding.....this year, the sun will marry the land...and little good will come from this unholy union.....cherOkee is speaking of this. Last night, 98 degrees at 10:30. As you say, this is but one of the great fires. We must burn the bridge behind us.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:33 - ID#242325)
gold and platinum
Gold down 70 cents today, but way outperformed platinum. What is the world coming to?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:35 - ID#377367)
RE: Bloopers Comments about Reno, SS and Klinton Gang of Thugs.
The Klinton propaganda machine and their tactics were taken right out of Hitlers Mein Kampf. One tactic that they are especially good at is, when faced with any questions with respect to their policies or conduct, is to publically brand the accuser as a liar or social misfit who's utterrings are those of a mad man or woman. They then use a missive such as " we all know that those things are not true, bla, bla. This corrupt machine needs to go. We do not have to look to far for enemies. They are here in the white house.
I know this site is for discussion of PM's But the Blooper nailed it .

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:39 - ID#373284)
Griffon5, Namaste' If all we did was discuss the metals on this site I fear many
would have taken drastic measures long ago my friend...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:45 - ID#242325)
Depression or worse
Depression may be too mild a word

20-million will lose jobs in Indonesia ( Business Day, Jhb. )

JAKATA-The World Bank said yesterday at least 20-million Indonesians were expected to
lose their jobs, and up to 50-million, or one in four, faced a return to poverty due to the
economic crisis and drought. "Unemployment in Jakarta alone rose by 21% last month,
according to the latest official figures," it said.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 15:59 - ID#288369)
Eat mo' beeeeef, yes sirreeeeeee! And twice weekly, edge the lawn with charcoal lighter ( or any substitute petro-chemical ) . And hide mo' gold behind small ears. Yes, A hearty PUFF and giant GULP to ya! HiHo! We Long for the Island that is Long! mooooooooooo........

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:00 - ID#43349)
In a dictatorship whoever controls the most guns is the guy with the most power. You get what hou want by direct application of force.

In our country whoever best controls the media, has the best spin doctors, advertisers, and public relations men is the guy with the most power. You get what you want by direct application of misinformation.

The despot uses fear, the politician uses hypnotism.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:00 - ID#433172)
I agree with you the action the Japanese people take might be based on thier traditions and language structure more than rational analysis of their situation. Nihongo benkyooshimashita. Their present situation is predictable, they may well end up in tetany.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:04 - ID#194311)
Donald; all...on Greenspan and gold.

inside Donald's previous link....very interesting reading. Is this possible big Al is working re-establish a gold standard ofr the dollar...I wonder what price he envisages...$200/oz...$50/oz...hmmm

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:09 - ID#350179)
China cancels press visas, Clinton objects

On sidelines of China trip, Taiwan reminds US of economic importance

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:12 - ID#43349)
Although Japan has one of the lowest crime rates it has one of the very highest suicide rates. One does not lash out at society since that would be a lack of respect to ones parents and ancestors. If one sees oneself as a failure it is far easier to perform the ultimate self punishment than to have to face ones dishonor.

To some the Japanese may seem fanatic, but it isn't fanaticism it's the viewpoint. We are not so different. Where we might risk everything for the sake of great material gain so the Japanese might risk everything for the sake of great social status. The highest authorities have the most to risk.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:18 - ID#401237)

I still suggest that we are in a repeat of 1930 and 1937, the difference being Japan is crashing again in 97 as the US did in 37.

This would suggest that the US in 97 is Germany in 37. We should be on our guard against these thugs in the White House.

This would also suggest hyper-inflation in the US in 97 as Germany had in 37.

This is a Gold related story. This is what Gold is all about. Just ask the Jews who had their Gold stolen by Germany in 37.

Clinton has appointed hundreds of federal judges and they are in place all around the country. Watch the various federal appeals court decisions...they are establishing new legal precedent or said another way new federal law. This is a way of changing the constitutional structure of the country with out having to go through the People and/or their Congress.

We should not be fooled by the legal foot work we see, ie. Monica and MSFT. These cases could be staged to establish new law. We are loosing control of our country and our freedom.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:18 - ID#254269)
Japanese Cultural Differences . @ Gollum, you may be right about this. Most of
us see things through Western eyes. It would explain why they have not dealt with their banking problems. Remember, the Japanese are the folks who still have not accepted any blame for WWII war crimes they committed and who hid in caves even after the end of WWII.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:22 - ID#262242)
Strad Master
Good to see you back Strad.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:22 - ID#269191)
Value of Gold.
George: Commodities are valued on the basis of supply
and demand. With a monetary commodity the demand component consists
of both commodity demand and the demand for the commodity as money.
My opinion is because of the large above ground stocks of gold, gold
is always in a state of oversupply if one were to only look at its
demand as a pure commodity. But gold is also a monetary commodity
and where one makes or looses money is on the soundness of one's
estimate of the future monetary demand for gold. If one thinks
future economic conditions will remain placid and demand for gold
as money will not rise, then one should either short gold or remain
invested in something else. If one thinks future economic conditions
will favor an increase in the monetary demand for gold, then one should
buy the metal.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:26 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, NAMASTE' A GIANT GULP OF RESERVA right back at ya. Yup, on
the Island that is Long, teaching children that gold, silver and red meat are good for the soul...that beer used to flow from the taps until some jerk in the District of Columbia said chlorinated water was better.

That children don't wear beepers, they wear smiles or scowls unless their homework and chores are done, that THEY WILL get a swift kick in the ass if one or the other are not done, two if both are not finished.

Life is grand, smoking Camels cigarettes...getting ready for a barbecue this evening, tons of red meat and a few chickens for those people into self-love cause they can't stop looking into a mirror.


( QUAH-Hot Tuna lightly playing in the background )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:29 - ID#254269)
tolerant 1; It's only 858 days until election day 2000 and WJC is gone. If he is impeached before
then, it is a bonus !

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:31 - ID#43349)
Very well put.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:36 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, not soon enough, he must go, and
go now he must. Although I think that he and others have totally missed the boat so to speak regarding the Internet. Sure hate groups and such are better connected...BUT...MORE importantly...REGULAR FOLKS, EVERY DAY FOLKS are better connected...bright, hard working and it is clear from all that is on the www that the Coward Erect and the District of Columbia are not fact they are despised...

And the best glowing ember in the previous thought...they are young...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:36 - ID#43349)
Sudden horror!!!
What if because of the Y2K problem they are unable to have a year 200 election and Clinton has to stay in power?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:37 - ID#411201)

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:37 - ID#340302)
On days like today, it's important to toss all caution to the wind.
With the DOW AND NASDAQ once again surging, it makes a good deal of sense to take all your money and invest it immediately.

A NO CASH, FULLY INVESTED POSITION MAKES A GOOD DEAL OF SENSE. Of course, that is a conservative strategy.



FROM THE BOSS STRATEGY MAKES THE MOST SENSE. It is a fairly high risk strategy that will result in maximizing one's returns in this blissful market.

Remember...the government will ALWAYS intervene in the markets to ensure that you never lose a penny of your investments.


So, throw away your conservative ways, fella....

...and don't stop thinking about tomorrow.




Mountain Goat
(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:39 - ID#349183)
Foxes guarding henhouses?
More wonderment today as equities jumped, but is it really any wonder?

Several friends have talked to their stock brokers recently with concerns
about Y2K, unrealistic P/E, Asia crumbling, nukes in various places, etc.
( Partly because I'm alarming them by sending them some of the more
erudite posts from Kitco! )

The broker's answer is always, "Oh don't worry! The market is only
going to go up! Y2K is a non-issue! Life is grand! Send more money!"

The "Joe Sixpacks" of the world aren't savvy enough ( yet ) to see through
this, and small wonder. If the broker agrees that the equity market
is badly oversold, all his customers will pull out and he'll be jobless.
How many investors are really getting the truth, one wonders...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:40 - ID#340302) apologies if my preceding post...
...makes absolutely no sense.

Well, hey, it's a New Paradigm.

Logic need not apply.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:41 - ID#401237)

Rumor has it that Clinton will take back control of Congress with the next election. The World including the USA will be in depression with other problems facing the nation where upon Clinton will ask his congress for a third term. The American people love Clinton economics so much they will not object....whether the country is in economic collapse or not, after all the unemployment rate is 2.5% and there is no inflation.

By the way did you hear that Clinton has ordered $40 +/- million worth of bullet proof vest for your local police?


Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:42 - ID#212323)
If reduced to a pure black and white issue, your 16:22 post is spot on. All else becomes idle banter.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:48 - ID#254269)
tolerant 1. Of course, the bad news is that Hillary might run in Year 2000.
( Hey tolly, put down that gold bar , don't throw that gold coin at me, it's only a joke, really man, it's only a joke, I think ) ( Big silly grim on my face ) .

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:52 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste'

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:53 - ID#377367)
Winston Churchill had it right when he stated that in order for Evil to prevail, good men and woman do nothing.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:55 - ID#194311)
Judy Shelton you read/post at Kitco?
excerpt from

Crisis of Capitalism
by Judy Shelton
May 21, 1998

"...Sound money should be viewed as a basic human right.
Until government leaders come to understand that
devaluing the currency is equivalent to demeaning the
labor and dignity of their citizens, the world will continue
to suffer the syndrome of money meltdown, financial
breakdown and political showdown....."

this was an idea I arrived at around the same time during one of my rants on in-humane usurous money-changing. She writes very clearly and concisely and is unwavering on views of sound uncorruptable money...

it is very refreshing to hear an economist contemplate that something may be fundamentally is difficult to contemplate that perhaps pi is not constant ( an analogy in mathematics from non-Euclidean geometries ) but it seems this is really the case. The world monetary system is fundamentally flawed and the disgusting power plays by the IMF to defend the status-quo is not far short of an evil upon humanity itself.

A gold-standard for money as a basic human right should be adopted by the international institutes and organisations for human rights.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:55 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.96. The 144 day moving average is 28.67.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:56 - ID#401237)
it's a New Paradigm


(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:57 - ID#347235)

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:59 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236. The 144 day moving average is .256. My database contains 13 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #5. The #1 ranking was on 4/24/86 with a gold price of $345.10, an XAU of 69.70, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .202

(Tue Jun 23 1998 16:59 - ID#254269)
Would someone please pick tolly up off the floor before he hurts
himself ?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:01 - ID#253153)
I hate to sound like a broken record--- but
We entered into a run away deflationary phase in the US in Feb ,1998. I repeat, once a trend is established it CAN'T BE REVERSED until it exhaust itself ( this is a long term process ) . Sure, there will be temporary rallies and much excitement but shortly the trend will reassert itself. The primary trend of the economy is down and it can't be worked OFF by any means. Let's examine recent history . The US had it's run away Inflationary phase between 1996- 1982. Was our government able to do anything about it ? The answer of course is NO. The inflationary trend was in force until it fell on its own weight in 1982. Be carefull, don't get too excited. In order for us to have hyper inflation, our government will have to pay it's bill in cash. So far ,they are paying their bills with checks.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:01 - ID#347235)
My cousin Redneck came up with that one, makes as much sense as some of der schlickmeisters spin right?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:03 - ID#340302)
@RETIRED SOLDIER...let's sing the song..

In the key of E minor.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:05 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.08. The 144 day moving average is 50.09

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:06 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste'
I'm o'tay now...gulp...gulp...gulp.........ahhhhh.......that's better...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages.
Spot gold $299.43, spot silver $5.46, XAU 79.80

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:09 - ID#254269)
High Rise. That is why the Republicans are moving very slowly on anything that Starr
may give to them and probably why Starr is also moving slowly. Neither of them want to be seen as partisan and, unfortunately, whatever Starr or Congress do, will probably be seen that wasy ( as partisan ) and that will probably backlash against the Republicans and benefit the Democrats. They don't call him "Slick" without good reason.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:10 - ID#254269)
Gollum. Has anyone thought about impact of Y2K on the elections ? That's probably a
very interesting question.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:10 - ID#252391)
Watch the yen and Russia
The yen is creeping back toward 140 as Russia looks headed for the big fall.

Rally in the stocks pretty impressive. Didn't mind seeing my light metals psotion go down when the stocks were weak, but I'm starting to think Farfel has it right. Buy DOW, hang the metals. If the DOW crashes because of a melt down in Japan and Asia so will the metals. If things stay about the same the stocks will rise but the metals will go sideways until we run out of silver and pd. Only if the yen rallies and the dollar falls will the metals rise and the Dow stall. The chances of the yen ralling in any meaningful manner seem remote. Gollum your insight on the Japanese language was great, thanks.

APH where are you today.....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:13 - ID#254269)
Second Quote of the Day (normally I would limit it to only one quote but this may be
particularly appropriate, given the exchange of the last few minutes.
"May you live in interesting times ". Chinese proverb.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:13 - ID#259282)
Un-Related...It's very cool living on a preserved 19 th century canal.
There are about 30 restored steamboats having a regatta today . Some are replicas. They all have steam whistles and as I write they are blowing tunes that the Mississippi might have heard 120 years ago. Steam is cool. Neat -O - Rideau. In 20 minutes they will go through a lock that is exactly as it was in 1832 and pass through the channel and stay at a lodge that was built in 1880. This ain't the fast lane. Somewhere down that crazy river...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:15 - ID#401237)

You may be right, but I now think not. The US is being ask to print $ for the world. Printing all of this currency without the assets to back it leads to hyper-inflation.

Why has Gold held up so well?
Why are Rivlen and other Clinton mouth pieces talking inflation now?

There is a liquidity crises around the world.
The US would like to tighten and should but can't, the CB must print more money in the face of the Asian crises and internal inflationary pressures.

The affects of the inflation have now hit my business. We have been ask to merge with a much larger firm. The Clinton administration can not continue to hide the inflation much longer.

I have been wrong before, we will see.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:18 - ID#340302)
@JIMS...that's right, buddy, SELL the gold and BUY the DOW/NASDAQ..




Singin a song, singin a song.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:18 - ID#288186)
HighRise; I think you're right....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:22 - ID#242325)
Eu Gold sales?
More bad news from Europe. This from Bill Murphy no less.

t certainly appears there is a gold war going on among the Europeans. Trichet,French CB head, said the
Germans, French, and Italians would sell no gold. He said nothing about the Dutch and the Spaniards. Possibly
very revealing.
In a conference call on Friday, Stephen Yorke, of Bunting Warburg appeared to reverse his position about
future European gold sales and said that the man in charge of the gold selling department, or something like
that, for the ECB, hinted strongly to him that they would not inhibit country sales of gold when the EMU is
Not a week goes by when someone does not reverse themselves.
Stay tuned, I guess.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:23 - ID#288186)
Inflation is locked in. The fed is behind the curve. We are headed for a
Boom/Bust economy. The cycle is about to repeat and history has
shown what happens. Flight to quality ( real quality ) and inflation
hedge...precious metals...They will ZOOM!!! IMHO Fox-Man

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:25 - ID#253153)
High Rise-- Let's examine some facts
If there was a hint of hyper inflation the long bond yield would have been
much higher than today's 5.64%. The long bond yield has been going down steadily since 1982. How do explain that ?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:29 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...oh, cheer up...
...haven't you figured it out yet?

Everybody in Europe wants to sell their gold...and buy the DOW/NASDAQ.

NOBODY wants gold anymore. It's as popular as asbestos.

What else is new?



Yadda yadda.



(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:33 - ID#401237)

Yes, he is not only "Slick" he is scary! He has recently been successful in turning the press on them selves.

He is all powerful right now, he has FBI files on every member of Congress plus he controls the courts and Justice dept. It does not matter what Starr does, nothing will or can be done.

Clinton is the master of the lie.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:35 - ID#262242)
I will be in New Orleans August 17th to 21st, if there are any Kitcoites in the area, I would enjoy having a cup of coffee with you.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:36 - ID#329186)
Mountain Goat Foxes Guarding the Chickens + Sharefin (Net Chatter)
Its quite hopeless I try to hit 3 poerple per day on Y2K ( I do not mind if they think I'm nuts or eccentric If I get one convert.

I just poped out for a glass & Bite got in conversation with a **** who claimed to be an accountant ( trust me I'm an accountant type ) the type that works for others ( socialist .. taxation keeps him employed :distribution of wealth..........schmuck ) Bill C great guy Y2K is a con.....he knows he is in accountancy ( save me from experts & proffessionaLS ) ME TO HIM SO WHY HAVE B TELECOM Budgeted 250 M  and Gen Motors half Billion US$ if its a hike? reply " have you heard of creative accounting ..............tempeted to say No what is that but did not ....his implication was that all the big companies where hiding profits.. ( companies UK & USA +elsewhere have rules on accruals I think ) well ask an accountant or politician what is 2+2 and the reply is what do you want it to be .....

With replies from so called proffessionals its not difficult to see why lesser mortals beleive their retoric ......and ignore Y2K

Politicians have the added dificulty with what I call the beleif factor based on the lies they tell.........and I could not care who retains power so long as there is a pragmatic "leader /speaker".

Has anybody got a good pitch for Y2K ?
Rusky power plant melt downs........

Go Gold ( Physical )


Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:40 - ID#212323)
Excerpt from OLD GOLD post...Bill Murphy report--
"... the man in charge of the gold selling department, or something like
that, for the ECB, hinted strongly to him that they would not inhibit
country sales of gold when the EMU is formed."

Consider this, people only TALK when they want to be HEARD. If someone in a position with the ability to affect the direction of POG says something like this, it is for a reason. Think about is very easy to accumulate gold in a falling market. Buying significant volume of gold in a rising market becomes self-defeating. Perhaps various countries do not want to part with any of the gold they've held over the years, so rather than transfer this hard asset to the European Central Bank, they are choosing to transfer PAPER foreign exchange reserves with the intent of letting the ECB buy the agreed upon gold fraction of its reserves. Think about it...the individual countries will certainly have LESS use for the foreign exchange paper reserves than for the gold they all now individually hold. You simply don't need the paper reserves if you're not in the banking business. Gold on the other hand...flexibility, independence, reversibility upon possible failure, etc.

What would you do, given the choice?

got gold?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:41 - ID#252391)
Buy oil stocks...
at least the powers that control supply are willing to hold some off the market for higher prices - quite a difference than in the gold arena.

Farfel, glad we're singing the same tune....inflation is not here, look at the long bond yes, time to find a good stock web site and buy what's going up...the DOW will hit 10,000 before gold sees 315.

Interestingly the strenght in XAU was related to ABX - a component of the S& stocks rise as an after thought to the rise in the S&P.

Anybody got an idea on CDE's .62 price to book ---are they about to go bankrupt or what.

Buy the dow....go farfel .. . sign that tune...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:44 - ID#28861)
Hope dwells eternal.....
From: Bill Murphy Tuesday, Jun 23 1998 4:37PM ET

We come at this from a supply - demand standpoint. Our work shows us demand is hundreds of tonnes greater than is known. This demand was met by many sources, one of which we believe is the Dutch Central Bank unloading ahead of the EMU. We also figure Asia knocked $60 off the gold price. In our opinion, these shocks to the market are ending; at least the major Asian liquidation is over and our sources told us that, as of very early May, there was only 200-250 tonnes of CB selling left to go. If there is any left, it should be taken out by a producer or the next upswing.
We believe the price will go up to ration the natural commodity deficit that will then exist., even with gold lending and selling going on. In an interesting comment today, LBMA Chairman, Peter Vava, said" central banks would become net buyers of gold". We strongly believe an Asian central bank is in there now and has been for some time now absorbing the spec selling producer hedging. If the Asian buying continues, and the CB selling is very much on the wane, then it is hard for me to see gold not going to $370 to $400 within a year. And nobody paying any attention as it rises.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:44 - ID#242325)
Farfel: A number of cautious gold bulls had cited the probable end of European selling as a reason for their optimism. Now that expectation may be dashed. Plus apparently there is to be more gold leased out at dirt cheap rates to the shorts.

I have concluded that gold and gold shares should be avoided until they can ignore bad news for a significant period of time and/or open interest rises together with prices. But until then, the whole sector will remain a deadly minefield.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:49 - ID#329186)
OLD GOLD ( Eu Gold Sales ID 242321
Yes of course but then with all markets the unknown is the big problem hence all the diss information to create more uncertanty and probably more oportunity for those in the "know" to use this information to their personal advantage was it not on kitco that I read that the Big family from Frankfurt ( 1700's ) wanted all the euro gold to auction??

We have to make our judgements based on our perceptions and once thought out stick to it ( with stop loss or not ) think you may be 20% out average purchase price but ( somebody on golden eagle ) said it is better to be a year early than a week late if gold takes off.....

go Gold!


(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:49 - ID#412286)
Europe CB announcements
have about as much relevance to gold as whether the Yankees beat the Indians. Any negative announcements about gold now given the environment are extremely bullish. Europe using any gold is really an admission of defeat. Fixing golds future to the YEN is cute since Japan has no interest rate and the bloated US Deficit dollar is to the rescue. Talk about a Rubinesque ruse. The rescue of the Yen has and was to buy a little more time for the consumer debt ridden US economy and to keep the bubble growin until they caqn blameY2k. Notice the obsequiousness to China, embarrassing yet underreported by the Corporate Press. Pravda, I mean the NY Times and Wall St JOURNAL naturally give Clinton a free ride in the interest of slavery and cheap labor and higher profits.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:50 - ID#373284)
jims, Namaste' 10,000 DOW before $315.00 gold...Hmmmmmmmmmmm
One gold sovereign says you are WRONG...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:54 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...when I listen to you talk about European CB's... sound far too rational for my tastes.

These markets have NOTHING to do with rationality anymore.

Haven't you figured that out yet?

I kind of like the mass hysteria of the global investing public, yes I do.



The more European CB's that want to sell gold, hey, the higher the price should go, right? Now, if the Russians and everybody else start wanting to sell gold, then the POG should skyrocket. Yeah, now that's the ticket.




(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:55 - ID#373284)
always checking everything...who woulda thunk it! Good Grief!!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:57 - ID#212197)
@OLD GOLD: EU Gold Sales (Your 17:22)
I think your suposition of a Europe internal gold war makes a lot of sense. There are countries which basically belong to the dollar block,
like U.K. with $300 billion US dollar reserves. A few more , like the Netherlands belong to this block. Of course these countries are more inclined to follow the general FED policy in matters of gold.

I found it very interesting that you mentioned a representative of the Warburg banking emire who tried to bring insecurity into the gold market.
This is for sure all partially meant to be psychological market "cultivation" ( to avoid the term "manipulation" ) and it doesn't say anything about how the Warburg bankers act. But it shows that they want the gold price down. ( Probably to buy cheap as long as possible ) .

There is definitely a kind of a war going on. The most reliable faction in this war on the pro-gold side are the French. By conviction I'm sure the Germans are also in the pro-gold camp, but when it would come hard on hard they are not as reliable as the French. ( They are easier giving in on American demands while the French enjoy to be on the other side of the fence in respect to America. ) However, as long as the Germans can hide behind the French they'll be o.k. The Italians seem also reliable pro-gold advocates. So seem the Finns and the Austrians. IMHO.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 17:59 - ID#401237)

Just because the long bond is in high demand from those who live in crashing world economies, does not mean that inflation does not exist.

It only suggest that the long bond looks better to them then anything else.

Short term interest rates are still high compared to the long bond...remember Clinton converted most of the US debt over to shorter term treasuries.

Besides who can figure out bonds anyway, they go in the opposite direction from everything else. Except for about a week ago, when Gold and the Long Bond bounced at the same time. I think I remember this happening. Was a very
interesting occurance.

Look at the price of Gold compared to the 30 yr Bond over the last month. Bond rates dropping and Gold holding study - and one day, we even had one major up move.

Our Bonds compared to other economies are paying the highest rate of return.

This may explain why the price of Gold follows the Yen and other currencies rather than the US$....the US Bond is artificially propping up the US$...I don't know, you mat be more qualified to discuss these Bond matters than I.

Is the US still buying their own bonds?


Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:02 - ID#212323) posted
"tolerant1 ( jims, Namaste' 10,000 DOW before $315.00 gold...Hmmmmmmmmmmm )
One gold sovereign says you are WRONG..."

Every fibre of my BEING says it's wrong. Always good to know that there is one sovereign out there that sees things the way I do.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:03 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...essentially your analysis of European CB actions...
...belongs to an OLD SCHOOL of thinking.

In the OLD SCHOOL, CB's selling gold was a BAD thing for gold. But, in the New Paradigm, surely the more CB's selling and loaning gold, the higher the price must climb.

Don't you realize...we live in the Age of Clinton...




( sing it! )



(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:07 - ID#373284)
ARAGORNIII, Namaste' We sovereign individuals are a tough breed eh...
DOW 10,000...over the summer?...I just do not see it...coursin now, I own a huuuuge tree farm in the great Saharan Forest...NOT!

Watch Japan...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:08 - ID#242325)
get real
Farfel: The more gold that is sold today, the higher prices will go AFTER THE SELLING IS DONE. But until then more selling means lower prices. Get real.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:08 - ID#340302)
@OLD see, anti-logic is the hallmark...
...of the Age of Clinton.

For example, the more young girls you molest, the more popular a President becomes with the American people.

That's because...




( Yaddayaddayadda )



(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:12 - ID#340302)
@OLD all I'm saying is...
...get with the times...

Change your name to "NEW GOLD."






(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:13 - ID#210235)
@Time for a break!

except for you, blooper. Please step outside for a moment. There are a couple of hundred Soccer Moms* out back who want to have a word with you.

Soccer Moms: That last bastion of conservatism, the women who abandoned careers to stay home, raise their kids, and ( gasp! ) occasionally bake cookies, winning the direct disparagement of HRC during the 1992 election. They have been blamed for everything from Rush Limbaugh to the tobacco industry's control of congress, but never, never for Clinton's presidency.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:13 - ID#212323)
"...until then more selling means lower prices."
Actually it is the TALKING that accompanies the selling ( but I prefer the term "transaction" because there is a buyer too, ya know! ) which is responsible for the lower prices. somewhat implied by my earlier post.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:16 - ID#412286)
While I am a good contrary mkt indicator "old Gold" aint bad. But then those who have been in a financial death/Auschwitz camp tend to react according to their masters wishes as they have no real knowledge of how close the Russian liberating tanks are yet they KNOW they are coming. Shalom George S. Cole/old gold I too have the cruel brand of financial mkt oppression. Next Year Gold 800!!! Instead of the Next year in Jerusalem of the oppressed Jewish Passover saying. I hope we are as successful as they were.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:17 - ID#253153)
HighRise---Your explanation is full of holes
You have no knowledge what so ever of what you are talking about.
1. Inflation in the US currently running at an annual rate of 2-3%. Certain
commodities will fluctuate in price on a monthly basis because of weather patterns such as El Nino, droughts, floods, etc.
2. All the US debt has not been converted to short term debts. Only some of the new debt is being sold short term.
3. From time to time the US will buy or sell dollars on the open market.
4. The long bond is 30 years in duration and it's yielding now 5.64 %.
What investor in his right mind will buy the long bond if he expect inflation ?
5. Before you post, get the facts straight.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:19 - ID#329186)
Aragorn111(excerpt from Old Murphy ID#212323
mmmmmmm yes very true again dissinformation . but this comes down to how great losses are for gold bugs to date ..if one buys physical gold to hold there is the upside potential against the downside loss with physical purchases there is not the immediate quick buck as with options and shorts..IMHO each one of us who logs on Kitco should think X US$ /X  or whatever comitment for 2 years add more according to cash flow but not over react to another well articulated argument which makes you feel your decision was wrong.

My thoughts are the USg has bought gold for insurance ( and to retain Control ) IMHO gold will move Up anytime between Now and Aug 1999 and I do not want watch it move up with a big leg ( gap ) and debate with myself as to if it is a fasle start or not whilst it moves up another leg..the more commitment to GOLD the sooner the shorts will close out

Go Gold!


(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:24 - ID#242325)
ignoring good news
ROR: If gold starts to ignore the bad news, I'll swing into the bull camp awfully fast. But until then we remain in a minefild. Oil prices surged today, but POG fell again. Ignoring good news. Not the kind of action I like to see.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:25 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste'
Priceless...priceless...simply priceless...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:26 - ID#412286)
But George
The dollar and US stocks skyed.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:29 - ID#212323)
Yup, and in light of your comments to my 17:40 post, see also DEJ's post at 16:22 for the bottom line, especially in light of the good article about Greenspan that Kiwi highlighted a few hours ago.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:31 - ID#411163)
KIWI-Judy Shelton
I read her book several years ago. Her bottom line was gold is money and we would only have honest money if the PEOPLE OF THE USA, not just governments could take delivery of the physical gold to keep the governments honest. As I remember she was an adviser to Newt Gingrich's ( sp ) presidential bid. They had a picture of her on the book jacket- she went at least 9 1/2 on a scale of 10 in looks.
SOme people have it all!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:33 - ID#255217)
Griffon5 @15:35 and tolerant1
Dead on target, Griffon5. tolerant1, if we didn't have diversions I couldn't bear the realities relentlessly laid bare here. More and more, I am gripped by FEAR of what confronts us, and I don't just mean Y2K. I am referring to TREASON at the highest levels and usurpation of power. We have been sold out!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:33 - ID#242325)
Lately gold and the Dow have sometimes moved together. Dollar rose modesrly today but oil prices SURGED.

I still beleive a powerful gold bull is not far off. But I am very uncertain from what POG this will begin.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:35 - ID#210235)
Namast, friend.

You might find this site even more interesting than 6 years in the trenches with JS. ( Thank goodness there's no laugh-o-meter on this site, where we have to pay a bit of gold each time you crack us up! )

I really found their analysis of Russia's handling of Kosovo interesting.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:36 - ID#212323)
Here is the link that I said Kiwi refered to from Donald's post to Tolerant1
Damn! Almost like a soap opera...

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:37 - ID#349183)
@RACK, kiwi, et al.
Honest question: Are there, or will there be enough gold ( and silver )
coins in circulation to form a basis of currency, should the dollar

Holding physical is very wise, in these uncertain times, BUT.
Is the local grocer really going to accept a Mountie? a Kruggerand?
And what would you get back in change?


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:39 - ID#43460)
usmint coin sales
fergie__A It's good to have friends in high places. : ) Those sales figures you posted are more optimistic than I would have guessed, demonstrating that the 'Merkan public may not be as dumb nor as ill informed as advertised. It might be natural to assume that all is not gold buggery in such sales, that Joe Sixpack and Cracklin Rosie are starting to buy as well. If the sales keep up in the second half it would be well over a million ounces sold for 1998! IMHO

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:40 - ID#347235)
Tol 1
Nice lake!! Have a couple within 100 miles of Fairbanks just like it.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:40 - ID#288186)
An easy game to play...
Just watch real close and follow the trend. Understand the markets,
and ye shall win!
Save not a penny. Take out a loan. Killing two birds,
with one little stone.
It only goes up, never comes down. Dollar is strong and we'll never frown!
Do not delay in playing this game. It's the first in each line that points to your fame!
Now what do I mean and what is the truth? Give all of your money to the
stock market sleuth?
Buy up these stocks, and you shall be rich! Unload all your gold, cause it'll never twitch.
You have all the pieces to this little game. Give it a try, or leave it
the same.
Open your ears and hear not your heart. Listen to wall street, or get torn apart!
Deal up them dollars, we're calling the bluff. Never forget the dow's
wondrous stuff!
Ok we're done, now go to work. Winning is easy for those who lurk!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:43 - ID#242325)
What I dream about
EU announces that national banks are free to sell all the gold they want after Euro comes on line. But POG drops just theee bucks in early trading and closes up two bucks.

If we ever see action like this, time to put everything into the yellow. XAU will be on its way to 300 or more.

Or is it just a dream......?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:44 - ID#252150)
Jims@Oil & gas stocks are a good idea while waiting for AU to move
My oil&gas service/driller ( PDS ) up 6%+ in last 2 days. I think the OPEC meeting production cutbacks announcement will surprise favourably. My semi stock up 7% & even ABX up. A pretty good day.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:45 - ID#340302)
@ALL...anyway, I've had far too much jubilation...
...mirth, and singing today for my own good.

Time to go figure out where to get some cash to stick in the "Feel-Good" DOW and NASDAQ.

In the Age of Clinton, I suppose I should go rob the pension from some old lady. I'd probably get my face on TIME magazine and some kind of special award.




(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:46 - ID#343171)
the despair index on kitco ( DIK ) portends good things for gold near-term
also the KIT index, ie Kitco Interactive Tensions has been heating up and looks to flash a buy signal if a few more vollies per hour are launched

The equities market will need a good deal more buying pressure to get back to 'irrational exuberance' levels, what we have in here larely seems to be a bear trap, sucker rally IMO. Big problem for us goldbugs is that POG and gold equities seem to be in a one-way ratchet downward spiral, esp. the gold equities.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:47 - ID#347235)
Best Dave Barry I've read in weeks!! But Viagra works!!!!

Mr. Mick
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:51 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1 - caught up on your postings, you missed your calling............
your wit and humor should be on TV or radio, methinks..Namaste!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:53 - ID#252150)
ROR@You may be a socialist but unlike most of the posters here you are
capable of non-linear thinking. I agree that any announcements by CBs on AU at this time are bullish. Every time they make an announcement they end up revealing their wrinkled, obscene, corpulent carcasses.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:54 - ID#432170)
as the song says:
"this could be the start of something big/good"... ANGLY is giving evidence that:
...that it has exhausted its selling/bearish pressure...
as Anglo-American Gold goes...
so goes gold....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:55 - ID#288295)
Remember the infamous 8.4 earthquake a couple weeks ago?
Cesium 137 at 1000 x background levels appearing over Europe......Hmmmmmmmm...scroll down to the 6/22/98 interview ( this is part 1 ) with Linda Howe:

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:58 - ID#269207)
@ all
and they wonder, why Nero played while Rome burned, just what in hell the did they expect him to do!!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 18:59 - ID#253153)
Looking at POG chart
It looks to me like a double bottom. In my opinion this is a very bullisg picture.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:00 - ID#253153)
OOPS-I mean bullish

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:00 - ID#316232)
JP.. Without getting into an argument, sometime last year the amount of debt under 2 years exceeded that over 2 years. That means that we are sitting on the ledge. If interest rates move up, new debt financing to replace those under 2 years, would be over 2.5 tril, or over 1 tril a year. If rates move up 3%, certainly bad news, it would add over 300 bil to the budget, each year. After the second year, it would be over 600 bil/year. Lousy planning by those in control who want to look good now and don't worry too much about the future.
Inflation as measured in the 30 yr bond rate is statistically dishonest because the rate is down because foreigners want our money for now, pushing the rates down. The real interest rate on short term money is high, and US inflation rates are low only because the international situation keeps US consumer prices down.
Of course, as long as the rest of the world, such as Asia continues to deflate into recession, the US will only be hurt when the dollar loses, and that's not here yet.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:01 - ID#432170)
a more recent version of Shakespeare's not so "easy game to play":
There is a 'tide' in the affairs of men
which taken at the 'flood'...
Leads on to fortune...

Omitted ....
all the balance of their lives,
are bound in shallows....
and in miseries...

On such a 'full sea'
Are we now a-float.

We must take the current when it serves,
or lose our ventures.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:02 - ID#343171)
Rome wasn't built in a day, it just looks like it was

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:06 - ID#269207)
Thats why the Gods laugh when we tell them our plans..........
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:08 - ID#432170)
JP, r u still a stock-market bear ? - w/ Transp. Avg. breaking below 200-day avg.
Correct me if I'm mistaken, but didn't you post - a few weeks
ago - your expectation of a bear market in U.S. equities,
into July, signalled in part, by your interpretation, of the
Dow Transport Avg. breaking down,
below its 200 day moving average.

Is this a correct recall of your previous post?
And how do you see it now?
I'd sincerely appreciate your perspective, as things stand now.

Best Regards,
David Blair Macrory

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:09 - ID#253153)
Larrln---I agree. Now our dollar is very desirable by foreigners because of
high interest rates. But as our deflation accelerate and our interest rates
come down , foreigners will dump our dollars in favor of currencies backed by gold, namely the Swiss franc. As rates decline in the US , gold
will skyrocket in dollars.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:09 - ID#28781)
Barrick closed at the high today, in the upper part of Friday's range.

Bonds also looked weak. On the weekly chart of my Inflation/Deflation indicator ( TSE Resources/TSE Financials ) there is a very strong positive divergence building. As 1995-96 was a transition year away from the resources toward the financials I believe we are seeing the opposite occur for 1998-99. There is a high inverse correlation between the T-bonds and gold which relates back to the Jap yen--US dollar situation.
These are all related. I think we are slowly seeing a turn.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:11 - ID#401237)

You said, You have no knowledge what so ever of what you are talking about.

How do you know? You dont know me or anything about my background. I said you may be more knowledgeable about bonds than me. No need to insult me.

1. You said, Inflation in the US currently running at an annual rate of 2-3%. Certain commodities will fluctuate in price on a monthly basis because of weather patterns such as El Nino, droughts, floods, etc.

Are you sure about the 2-3%? These are Clinton do sound like someone who buys into what Clinton tells you.

El Nino, yes, are you aware of what is happening to the West Texas corn and cotton crop?

Are you specifying and buying, lumber, concrete, plumbing and mechanical equipment. Are you presently trying to hire people while others are trying to buy you?

My mistake, I guess I am to close to the front line. You must be closer.

2. I said, All the US debt has not been converted to short term debts. You said, Only some of the new debt is being sold short term.

I should have said much of the US debt has already been converted to short term. Or a larger quantity of US debt is short term than ever before.

3. You said, From time to time the US will buy or sell dollars on the open market.
I bet they do! Do you know the extent of the monetizing of our debt?

4. You said, The long bond is 30 years in duration and it's yielding now 5.64 %. What investor in his right mind will buy the long bond if he expect inflation?

Good question, and I suppose that you are buying the dips in the Dow?

Not Me, I am not buying bonds below 6%. Are you recommending that I buy the 30 year bond at these levels....... instead of Gold?

5. Before you post, get the facts straight.

I do try, but we cant all be perfect like you.

So, lets see if I finally have the facts right; IYHO, there is no inflation and there will be none in the foreseeable future - correct. See that was not so hard. No reason to get all uptight - I now see the light. Sell Gold and buy the Dow dips and the Long Bond below 5.5%.

I am sorry if I upset you with MHOs


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:13 - ID#45173) re: your Tue Jun 23 1998 13:18
As a capitalist, I still see the support by the majority of those in society who had a lousy start, and those who have fallen on hard times, as not moral but self-interested. A liberal works to help the poor because the activity makes him feel better about himself. A capitalist helps the poor because he knows that if he does not, the poor may some day become a well-organized majority that comes to exact revenge for the inequalities inherent in capitalism that have worked against them. Thus, Communism.

The trick is this. How to retain the motivation to invest and take risk to compete for personal reward without cutting out those who cannot afford risk or who lack the means to wage the battle?

The next war will not decide this. At the end of each of the past world wars, everyone agreed that that horrible war was the last, that wisdom had been paid for with the blood of millions to allow all human beings "to live committed to the value and sanctity of human life and liberty." No. The world must decide this before war begins.

But how?


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:18 - ID#286230)
King Bill--hold back this wave---Please!!!
Unemployment surges across Asia

SINGAPORE ( Reuters ) - South Korea said Tuesday its unemployment had practically tripled
in a year, the latest stunning statistic from Asia, where financial crisis has thrown millions out of
Seasonally adjusted unemployment in South Korea leapt to 1.49 million in May from 550,000
a year earlier.
Joblessness is soaring across Asia as companies shed workers. Indonesia alone is likely to
have 20 million unemployed by the end of this year, the World Bank said on Monday.
That figure represents 22 percent of the Indonesian workforce and compares with a jobless
rate of about five percent in June last year, before the regional crisis hit.
China, with Asia's biggest workforce, has an official tally of 11.5 million people out of work,
but analysts say the real figure is much higher since the official statistics do not include
so-called "xiagang" workers sent home from idle factories to live on just a fraction of their
original wages.
More lay-offs are ahead. Beijing says that reforms to overhaul the ailing state industrial
sector will cost 3.5 million workers their jobs this year alone.
In addition, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji in March unveiled a plan to cut the bloated state
bureaucracy by 50 percent, axing four million civil service jobs.
Hong Kong is feeling the pinch, with the unemployment rate at a 15-year high of 4.2 percent
in the three months to May. Officials predict companies will sack more workers to survive the
economic slowdown, which has already knocked out tens of thousands of jobs in recent
India, where more than a third of the mostly rural population of 960 million live below the
poverty line, has vast ranks of unemployed and under-employed workers. And the trend is
A leading northern Indian industry association, the PHDCCI, forecast earlier this year that the
average number of people out of work in the 10 years to 2002 would rise to 94 million from an
average of 58 million in 1992-97. Latest government figures put the labor force in 1997 at
397.2 million.
Japanese unemployment, while low by world standards, crept to a record level in April -- 4.1
percent of the workforce. The rise, from 3.3 percent a year earlier, shocked a nation where
most people have never had to worry about job security.
Jobs are going in Japan's manufacturing and construction sectors, with young people and
those at the end of their careers particularly hard hit.
Even the dynamic island republic of Singapore is learning to live with turbulence in the job
market, though its unemployment rate, like Japan's, would be the envy of many. Singapore's
unemployment rate was 2.2 percent in March, up from 1.8 percent a year earlier.
The government has been telling workers that worse times are coming and workers have to
upgrade their skills.
"However strong our fundamentals, we cannot escape injury when we are in the path of the
typhoon," Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong said on Sunday.
Singapore's northern neighbor Malaysia has responded to the economic upheaval by
sending home immigrant workers, as has Thailand, which had 2 million unemployed in April.
The unemployment rate in Malaysia, which had a labor shortage for many years, is projected
to rise to between seven and 8 percent this year from 2.7 percent in 1997 and 2.5 percent in
1996. That implies some 430,000 people will lose their jobs this year, analysts said.
Practically the only Asian country bucking the trend of rising unemployment is Taiwan, which
on Tuesday reported an unemployment rate of 2.37 percent in May, marginally down from
2.51 percent a year earlier.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:18 - ID#228128)
Take your pick
Barts quote page is showing gold at 294.30, his chart shows 296.10 and the ABC quote page shows gold at 296.80. I'll take gold price number three Monty. Anyone know which one is correct?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:21 - ID#253153)
Goldfevr--Yes, I'm still a bear on equities but a bull on long term US treasuries
The transport violated the 200 day moving averages and the Dow declined below the 8780 level confirming the transport decline. To me,
it means that the Dow top is in and the Dow bear market has begun. Now, you can't have a bear market in the Dow and gold at the same time. It's one or the other. By default , we are in a gold bull market now.
It's very slow now, but will accelerate upward as we progress in time.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:22 - ID#43460)
goldfevr re shakespeare
King Lear act IV scene VI

Lear:"...Get thee glass eyes;

And like a scurvy politician, seem

To see the things thou dost not..."

To get to the home page delete everything after Shakespeare

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:28 - ID#246224)
CSIS conference transcript re: Y2K with all the big guys
If you haven't printed this out, then I'd say you must do it. At least read it on line. These people have the inside track. What they say and how, what is implied and what is left unsaid are all very illuminating.

We are in deep water and sinking fast. This Fall will be freak out time as an escalation in public awareness intersects with an increase in verifiable Y2K related system failures. Beginning 1999 we have serious look ahead failures.

Do not wait to prepare. If you do then you will find many who were ahead of you and cleared our what you are after.

Avoid the rush.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:28 - ID#253153)
HighRise--If I had insulted you, I apologize.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:29 - ID#432170)
High Rise & JP & peace
Isn't it a terrible burden: having to be 'right'....
god knows, at least some god does...
how much of a price we have each paid...
for... the need of
having ... to be ... 'right'

now look you two... JP & HR
if you two can't kiss & make up,
or at least make peace with each other...

why, kitco's software, or server, might over-heat, & melt-down...
and then...
where would we all be... ?!?

moreover, and over & over again.... ( -the universe merely waits till we figure it out: )

if you two students & investors in/of gold, can't get along,
how can we expect the jews & the gentiles to,
or the Moslems & the Hindus,
or the Slavs & Croats,
or the blacks & whites

or the battered wives & their husbands

or the battered husbands & their wives

.... ?!?

now really, come on guys,
if we devotees of gold, and gold-grounded money
cannot get along..
converse civilly, with mutual respect, or at least polite acknowledgement

how will we ...
with our golden wallets -- a life-boat example of monetary & private-capital sanity -- in an insane world...
how will we ever communicate the message of sound money & banking principles ... that the world hungers to hear, learn, and understand, embrace, and surrender to...if we are
so pre-occupied.....
with our petty differences...
and our personal, mutual attacks. ...
and meanwhile...
missing the miracle, that is in each of us, and between each of us, and all around us....

Where did I hear that idea....those words....:

'be in the world,
but not of the world'


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:32 - ID#194311)
Gold showing up everywhere now....
12 months ago rarely got a mention now yen/dollar reports include gold movements....somethings changing, a new awakening?

Dollar surges against yen in New York

NEW YORK, June 23 ( AFP ) - The dollar headed toward 139 yen
Tuesday morning in New York amid uncertainty about Japan's will to
adopt measures to resolve its financial crisis.
Around 10:45 a.m. ( 1445 GMT ) , the dollar traded at 138.85 yen
against 138 yen Monday; 1.7990 German marks against 1.7940; 1.5013
Swiss francs against 1.4973; 6.0290 French francs against 6.0150 and
0.6002 pound sterling against 0.5979.
Gold remained unchanged from Monday evening at 295.40 dollars an
The "dollar keeps pushing higher ( toward ) 139 yen, which would
be the highest level since the intervention last week," said Stephen
Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale.
Adding to the uncertainties concerning Japan's adoption of
serious measures to redress its financial system before the
country's mid-July elections, the Fitch IBCA ratings agency issued a
warning on the condition of Japan's banking system, Gallagher said.
According to the agency, the national recession, the Asian
crisis, and the fall in the stock market and the yen's value have
exacerbated the problems in Japan's banking sector and could cause
Fitch to lower the country's rating.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:33 - ID#253246)
@Old Gold XAU Dreams can turn to nightmares real quick
Old Gold

Recent history shows that as the Dow goes down the XAU stocks go down harder, check following newsletter;
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:33 - ID#432170)
gagnrad/King Lear
thanks for the url, sincerely
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:35 - ID#432170)
a genuine apology
let's hear it, for sincerity on the 'kitco web'
Thank-you JP.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:41 - ID#432170)
bellweather ASA is deeply "oversold"
Begrudgingly grudging its way back up... to the upside,
ASA, has recently mapped out ...
a deeply oversold condition/pattern.

Unless it is going 'down the tubes' from here --
along with a deflationary crash for all investments and
all peoples ... at this time ( -which I beleive is unlikely ) ...
right now...
then, right now...
we might best look forward to rising prices/values,
in U.S. dollar terms,
for precious metals investments.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:41 - ID#410215)
..... From a report today .....

The Japanese have received via FAX from Russia's metals export agency, Almaz, word that the Russians have approval and are ready to begin negotiations and shipments for the annual platinum supply contracts.Any mention of palladium was conspicuously omitted. Reuters reports that this brought speculators into the market for palladium, pushing the metal up nearly $15 while platinum declined.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:41 - ID#401237)

I think we may be in some form of agreement.

You said, " As rates decline in the US , gold will skyrocket in dollars. ."

Wont the price of other commodities skyrocket in dollars? Isnt that Inflation?

Lets see, it will take more dollars to buy a bond therefore the rate will be lower..right?
And at the same time, it will also take more dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.

That is what I posted earlier, I think, that the "there was one day last week where they both went up in dollar value." Therefore, what you are saying in your last post may be already happening.

Is the glass half full or half empty?
Or is it half empty or half full?

I hope you are right that gives me a 100% chance of making a ton of money on Gold.

If you are correct I win and if I am correct I win.
I can not loose! We agree?

I don't give a rat's a** about being right about anything other than Gold going back up.

Do we agree on this?

Go Gold!


(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:42 - ID#173410)

can some-body post the digisys url for charts??

i'm in vegas at another terminal and NEED to look at
some charts!!

Thanks in advance!!

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:43 - ID#432170)
ASA chart , courtesy of Yahoo
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:45 - ID#432170)
cherokee in vegas
now really, Cherokee...
and I had you on such a pedestal..
why don't you check bohl & associates

i'll get his url, and

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:45 - ID#288295)
Mexico 50 Peso Centenarios (1.2057 Troy Oz gold)
Does anyone have a source for these that they would recommend? Please post or email me

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:47 - ID#413109)
When all else fails
IDT, I find this source to be one of the most reliable-
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:48 - ID#432170)
for Cherokee: good charts/good man (-they go together)

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:48 - ID#253153)
All: I have been wondering for a long time why gold mining shares declined in the past
17 years whenever equities declined such as in 1987. Except for margin selling , I think gold shares declined because we have been in a DOW bull market until about 2 weeks ago ( see my previous post ) . All previous Dow declines were just corrections in an outgoing Dow bull market. Now , that I have received my confirmation of a real Dow bear market, I think gold mining shares will buck the Dow down trend and will rise from now on, slowly but surely.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:49 - ID#413109)
hey cherokee
Here's what you requested-
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:51 - ID#432170)
JP @ 19:48
& what will you think, ff the DOW/S&P go to new highs, in the period just ahead?
what will you say?: ____________

Bully Beef
(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:51 - ID#259282)
Toler -1... That's no LAKE ...this is a lake.Moose me arse.
Warning this is a big site. But God's country is big.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:52 - ID#45173)
@Gollum, Avalon, & DEJ
I've spent a fair amount of time in China and Japan and have concluded that the most significant difference between East and West is that in the West we value individuality over all other interests -- national, racial, personal, political, economic -- whereas they do not. An individual state of personal freedom separate from others is a fearsome calamity to be avoided at all costs in Asian societies. The "money" is in the success of the team. We have this too, no? What is on those gold and silver coins we own? E PLURIBUS UNUM?

News of the unintended technological assistance that US corporations are giving the repressive Chinese Communist regime to repress the Chinese people brought tears to my now American, Taiwanese born wife's eyes. It's ironic, too. The American president most beloved among Communist Chinese is Nixon, not because he reached out to them, but because he invested US government funds to build satelite networks that for the first time gave Chinese citizens an avenue of non-state-controlled information.

DEJ, I saved your note on gold for my archives. It's perfect.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:53 - ID#432170)
Bully Beef
Thanks for what is perhaps the most valuable url...
ever offered at kitco.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:56 - ID#253246)
@Anyone ********* thoughts on what is on ABX's shopping list
Barrick seems to make its aquisitions in the summer months, has anyone
seen anything in any of the newsletters on what companies they may
be looking at. George Bush in Russia recently, precoius metals
companies got be at bargain prices over there, however it seems a
bit risky for Barrick.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 19:59 - ID#253153)
Goldfevr-- If the Dow makes new high and the transport does not, I'm still
correct because both the Dow & the Transport will than come down to test the previous lows . If the Dow and Tran both rise above their previous high's , then I'm wrong.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:00 - ID#242325)
gold funds
Many gold funds down today despite rise in XAU and TGL
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:03 - ID#432170)
thanks for the honesty

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:04 - ID#401237)


I have posted here several times that I am concerned that I am so focused on inflation rather than deflation. Over the years my practice has been hammered several times by Inflation - I am programed to worry about inflation. I am trying to educate myself equally on deflation.

Where my Father remembered the depression so he was always worried about deflation. I spend way to much time trying to determine where we are headed. The economic events that are unfolding right now may change my family and yours forever and I will really be sick if I screw this one up.^CRB&d=1d

August Crude Oil Light

C Z8
December Corn

S X8
November Soybeans

W N8
July Wheat

December Cotton #2

West Texas drought has destroyed 25% of the US cotton crop, and threatens their corn crop.

If Asia cant get funds for production of goods, then it figures that they are unable to get funds to produce food. This may be aproblem ie. North Korea.

The Asian situation has taken a different direction than expected. They can not get financing to do anything; therefore, they are unable to export cheap stuff to the US.

Inflation or Deflation I guess depends on which shore you are standing....and whether you are looking at yourself or the other guy.

To the guy who has lost his job it is a depression, for you it is not a depression until you loose your job.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:06 - ID#253153)
HighRise-- In response to your question
I have done very extensive research of previous deflations over the last 500 years and found that without any deviations, commodities, interest rates and real estate, all declined substantially in price. The only asset that rose in price was gold . I have no reason to believe this time it will be different.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:09 - ID#259282)
Gold fever.. your taste of course is... Impeccable.
There is gold at the end of the rainbow. AND IT"S DOWN AT LEAST 30 DOLLARS AN OUNCE.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:10 - ID#432170)
seems to me...COT is still one of the most reliable indicators, for timing
When the price/chart of any given coomodity/investment,
maps out a repeating pattern of new lows, over weeks, preferably months...
and it's corresponding chat-pattern of COT/Commmercials' 'net-long/buying patterns also maps out simulataneously lower values,
this is a most reliable signal of timing...
to be interpreted as:
the lower & lower prices are likely to end, and soon, and abruptly.

This can be seen, reviewed, confirmed, in the following examples:

and perhaps, even now, after a final head-fake, in gold too...

Commodity Trend Service, at offers their version of
these weekly COT & price charts;
and they get their COT data from Pinnnacle Data Corp., NY.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:13 - ID#343171)
'The economic events that are unfolding right now may change my family and yours forever and I will really be sick if I screw this one up.'

I share this fear, would it not be tragic to see all of these global events unfolding, ahead of the majority, the herd, and still loose?

Like the dialogue between you and JP I wrestle with even the most basic theme, such as inflation vs. deflation. Get it wrong and blow some opportunities, at least, if not worse.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:23 - ID#45173)
@CoolJing & HighRise
Deflation vs Inflation. I've been harping on this here for six months. What forces will prevail? What will governments do to respond? What's the opportunity for us? The upside is huge, the downside just as large.

I'm now 20% gold and silver, 80% cash. Cash for deflation, gold and silver for inflation, and latter stage deflation. The stakes are high and the conversation on Kitco continues...

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:29 - ID#432170)
High-Rise, 20:04/JP & "inflation/deflation"
defining the terms:
inflation - an increase in the amount of money in circulation
-- an increase in the volume of money & credit...


this is an old fashioned definition, but it still sticks

and the result of inflation is:
depreciating currency/purchasing power - reflected in higher prices...

note: inflation is not, by definition, higher prices...

deflation's modern definition: - a lessening of the amount of
money in circulation...
( -causing a rise in it's value, and a fall in prices.

I've not asked the Fed. Res. Bank of St Louis to send me their weekly charts of M1, M2 & M3, in a couple of decades; but I'll venture to guess the Fed continues to prime the pump, without any humble regard for natural law, or integrity.

Even so, you can flood the world with all the specie/coin of the realm/dollars you may wish to create/counterfeit....but if the man in the street...the un common & common man, refuse to use it spend it, but prefer instead to hard it, or excnage it, for something that they might squirrel away, for safe-keeping, that is more trustworthy & reliable....all the inflating/expanding/increasing... of
.... of money/credit/ the powers that
( temporarily ) be - in the world ...
cannot force/manipualte/contriol the use/turnover/velocity....
of that money.

A deflationary collapse and depression, can & will happen,
no matter how low the interest rates are taken, and no matter
how much money-volume increase of inflation ...
is the temporary powers that be.

prices will fall, as demand erodes & eventually collapses,
the 'tortoise-saver' will re-surface, & triumph,
and the scared & scarred 'rabbit-consumer'.... will collapse..
in exhaustion....

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:34 - ID#349183)
China & stolen satellite parts
This was posted here some time ago, but Drudge seems to have a bit
more info now.


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:35 - ID#401237)

Thanks for the deflation info.
A question,
During the deflation of the 1930s, it is my understanding that Germany had hyper-inflation. Is that true or not? Not meant to be argumentative.


(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:35 - ID#253153)
Goldfevr---My definitions of inflation vs deflation
Inflation-- Decreasing purchasing power of your paper money. Money buys less.
Deflation--Increasing purchasing power of your paper money. Money buys more only domestically.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:40 - ID#288295)
Oh My! ... Spirit of Truth
The author of this site sure isn't afraid to take a stand ....

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:40 - ID#26793)
@High Rise
Germany had hyperinflation in the 20's; 1921-1924 period.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:41 - ID#253153)
HighRise-- Yes, during the late 20's up to 1930 , Germany had hyperinflation .

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:41 - ID#349183)
If I may butt in for a moment -

My dad collected stamps from the period, and the hyper-inflation got
so bad that one stamp was 500 million Marks. ( I have one at home )

There are stories of workers being paid 3 times a day, simply
because the currency was devaluing by the hour.

( Also stories of workers taking home their daily earnings in
wheelbarrows )


MG ( Go Gold! )
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:45 - ID#434108)
JP's definition of inflation & deflation
so, JP, are we to throw out our Webster's....for you?

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:50 - ID#26793)
Late gold news

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:50 - ID#263379)
Y2K / Gold Coin Sales
A large illustrated article ran yesterday, in one of the country's largest circulation Newspapers, The "San Jose Mercury News" on Y2K.

The lengthy feature article included large photo's of Gold coins, a local Coin shop owner selling coins, and several references to folks buying Gold and Gold & silver coins to prepare for Y2K.

Also many excerpts on Bamking institutions, govt. institutions, etc. I found it interesting that a major piece ran in Newsweek last week also on Y2K, as well as articles popping up in WSJ.

Bottom line, whether or not Y2K becomes the financial "Apocolypse" that Doom & Gloomers predict, public perception and media hype will turn it into an issue that will be bullish for Gold.
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:50 - ID#434108)
9/27/97 @ kitco:
re-copy of posting, of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:

shedding their fur...

while they still feign to demure.

Just when a cold wind,

begins to blow in;

as 'indian-summer' - too long

holding on;

with wishful thinking, all a-long.

The markets can no longer avoid nor hide,

the Yuppie-Kingdom's crumbling, & cry;

as winter's clearing cold and rain,

clean us all, and clear-out, even -

all our grains !

And some day in the future,

all will be clear;

while now, every stock market around

will 'tear', and give ground.

And gold and silver too

will NOW move on,

and move up;

at least for a year."

Return to Kitco Homepage

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:54 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at noon today.

(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:55 - ID#288295)
Mountain Goat
In 1923 the Mark stabilized at the OFFICIAL rate of 4,002,000,000,000 ( 4.002 Trillion ) Marks to the U.S. ( gold-backed ) dollar. The black market rate was however, 12 Trillion to the dollar. The pre-inflation exchange rate was 4.2 Marks to the dollar, seven years earlier.....Got Gold?
(Tue Jun 23 1998 20:55 - ID#434108)
the 'seige mentality' of fear, is spreading: Russia's Yeltsin tells it like it is