The summer rally in the S&P I have been expecting is underway. Pullbacks will be short and should be bought. This ridiculously over-valued. bloated pig of a market will be MUCH higher a month from now.

...but I want to hear HAGGIS' thoughts about the direction of gold and the US markets.

Haggis??

Thanks.

F*

To get anywhere in a rowing boat, both sides must paddle. If only one side paddles, you end up going in a circle - gets you no where.

So, on the left hand side of the boat we have the Bank of Japan, on the right the Fed/European CB, and the cox - Rothchild/BIS.

Now the keys question - is the boat loaded with GOLD or paper derivatives.

In the normal world, too much gold would sink the boat, and paper derivatives / money would normally float.

However, we do not live in normal times. GOLD can, believe it or not, actually float ?!!

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo............

Morocco 3 Scotland 0............struth...........

...if Scotland's losing to Morocco. Holy SH*! What a world!

What's the mood in Australia as the country watches it's currency turn to crap?

Any regrets about the gold sale?

Thanks.

F*

STATEMENT OF BRUCE F. WEBSTER - CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER, OBJECT SYSTEMS GROUP CHAIR, WASHINGTON D.C. YEAR 2000 GROUP

SUBMITTED TO THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION, AND TECHNOLOGY, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, JUNE 22, 1998

Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Subcommittee, I am honored to appear before you today. I do so representing not just myself but also the 1300 members of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group, most of whom work on or deal with this problem full time in the government, the military, corporations, educational institutions, and other organizations.
I didn't come to Washington to do Year 2000 work--it's not what my company does--but like many others, I was drafted into it. Once involved, I became profoundly concerned, both because of the scope of the problem and my own professional experience with information technology projects large and small. A quote from Shakespeare has repeatedly come to mind during the past 18 months while observing those who arbitrarily set schedules and deadlines, or who make blithe statements about how simple the problem is and how readily they will solve it. It's from Henry IV, Act III, Scene I. In it, the character Glendower boasts of his supposed command over the leading technologies of his day, declaring, "I can call spirits from the vasty deep."
Another character, Hotspur, with a firmer grip on reality, replies, "Why, so can I, or so can any man; but will they come when you do call for them?"
Humanity has been developing information technology for half a century. That experience has taught us this unpleasant truth: virtually every information technology project above a certain size or complexity is significantly late and over budget or fails altogether; those that don't fail are often riddled with defects and difficult to enhance. Fred Brooks explored many of the root causes over twenty years ago in _The Mythical Man-Month_, a classic book that could be regarded as the Bible of information technology because it is universally known, often quoted, occasionally read, and rarely heeded. Most publications and books on IT since then have debated, discussed, and deplored these same problems. And they are with us still. Their causes stem not from technology but from human frailties. Indeed, when asked why so many IT projects go wrong in spite of all we know, one could simply cite the seven deadly sins: avarice, sloth, envy, gluttony, wrath, lust, and pride. It is as good an answer as any and more accurate than most. In the midst of these human challenges, we place ever-growing demands on information technology. Like ratcheted gears on a torture rack, the tension only increases; there is no relief; things never simplify. Part of that is beyond our control, a natural consequence of the complex systems-social, economic, informational, technological, logistical, and even political-that we have nourished and which now enmesh us. Those complex relationships have made our miracle economy possible, giving us low inflation, low unemployment, low interest rates, and steady growth. But they also create the situation where a currency crisis in a small Southeast Asian country roils financial markets around the world and impacts the monetary policy of the richest nation on earth, or where a single strike at a single supplier can cause the world's largest company to shut down most of its North American manufacturing operations, furloughing tens of thousands of workers.
The other part of the problem comes from our fundamental ability to conceive and demand systems more complex than we can safely build, and our unwillingness to acknowledge and deal with those limitations. While only optimists successfully build complex systems, many complex failures come from those who are both optimistic and ignorant, or perhaps just arrogant. In the field of information technology, we have begun and abandoned the tower of Babel repeatedly in the past half century, ranging from innumerable small project failures to the incomprehensible 11-year, $4-billion IT modernization fiasco at the IRS. New foundations start each day. In the midst of all this, we face the chasm on the road ahead known as the Year 2000 crisis, which has its roots in all the sins related. True familiarity in this case breeds deep concern; it is ignorance of the problem's actual scope and ramifications that yields popular contempt. Indeed, the Y2K controversy differs from most popular scientific disputes--such as global warming--in that there are few ideological overtures, the reality of the problem is trivial to prove, the consequences are sure and soon, and it is the most technical, informed, and involved practitioners who are most worried. Two surveys were done of the membership of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group, one in March and a repeat survey in May, to ask their projections of the Year 2000 impact in the United States.
Both surveys yielded the same results. Two-thirds of the members responding felt there will be at best an economic slowdown; one-third felt there will be at least a strong recession and regional infrastructure failures; a tenth foresaw a second Great Depression or worse. Even when the votes from those who might stand to profit from such concerns--vendors, consultants, and lawyers--are factored out, the results remained largely the same. Likewise, anxiety has begun to set in through the public and private sectors as the true scope and difficulty of the Y2K problem--with its foundation in all the regrettable IT and business practices of the past half-century--become apparent. For the first time in those 50 years, these organizations face a problem that is inexorable with a deadline that is unmovable. The difficulties can't be finessed, buried, re-scoped, bought off, reorganized away, or dragged out until they're finally fixed. There is too much complexity to handle, too much damage to undo, too little time to allocate, and too few people to deploy.
What, then, can and should we do? I believe the best course lies in four principles: recognize; resolve; repair; and refrain.
Recognize. We need a broad, public acknowledgement of the nature, scope, difficulty, and potential impact of the Year 2000 problem, starting with President Clinton and followed by other leaders in the Administration, in Congress, in the military, in industry, and elsewhere. ( A good friend of mine told me that many years ago he went through a substance abuse program; because of that experience, he is fascinated by all the classic and well-documented forms of denial and self-deception he's observed among people at various levels confronting the Year 2000 problem. ) Each organization needs to discover and be honest with itself about the status of Y2K challenges inside and outside. Industry and society must realize that the Federal government isn't going to solve their problems--indeed, the government will be hard-pressed to solve its own--and that no other organization, vendor, or individual, least of all Bill Gates, will come riding up with a miracle solution.
Resolve. We need to resolve that whatever the nature and level of Y2K consequences, we will pull together as communities, as industries, as a society, and as a nation. With that cohesion, even major Y2K events can be weathered; without it, even minor Y2K events could be disastrous.
Repair. We need to do the work. It will be long, difficult, expensive, and tedious, and it will probably last well into the next decade. We can't get it all done in time; simple mathematical exercises demonstrate that for the embedded systems alone, we can only hope to get a small percentage tested, repaired, and replaced by the end of next year. This means will we also have to repair whatever economic, infrastructure, and even ecological damage is caused when Y2K problems hit. But what we can repair or replace, we should, and as quickly as possible.
Refrain. We must refrain from our long-established and self-defeating patterns in information technology, business, law, and government. Without that, we have little hope of making things better; as another friend is fond of saying, if you keep doing what you've always done, you'll keep getting what you've always gotten. The most critical restraint: as far as humanly possible, and perhaps a bit beyond that, we must voluntarily refrain from Y2K litigation
One of the best-run Year 2000 repair projects in America--and therefore in the world--is right here in Washington at Fannie Mae. The head of that effort, Carol Teasley, distributed to her staff some months back a clipping from an article in Parade Magazine ( November 9, 1997 ) written by Thomas E. Ricks based on his book, Making the Corps. The clipping details what Ricks felt the fundamental lessons were at the USMC boot camp at Parris Island. Carol told her staff that these were their operating principles for the duration:
* Tell the truth.
* Do your best, no matter how trivial the task.
* Choose the difficult right over the easy wrong.
* Look out for the group before you look out for yourself.
* Don't whine or make excuses.
* Judge others by their actions not their race ( or, I might add, by their position, political party, or profession ) .
I would suggest that a top-to-bottom application of these principles--in government, the military, industry, and society at large--is our best hope for determining the true scope of the problem, repairing as much as we can, and minimizing the impacts that do occur. I would also suggest that virtually any major Year 2000 repair or contingency effort not following these principles will fail.
Exactly fifty-eight years ago last Thursday, Winston Churchill gave what is perhaps his most famous address. He sought to rally the British nation in the wake of Dunkirk and the fall of France, asking them to brace for the task ahead. What, then, will those of the mid-21st century say of us? Will they say that January 1st, 2000, was--to paraphrase our own great WWII leader, Franklin Delano Roosevelt--a virtual day of infamy, a sad and tragic symbol of short-sightedness, incompetence, denial, blame, and political maneuvering?
Or will they look back at midnight of December 31st of next year and say of our generation, as Churchill felt the future would say of his, "This was their finest hour." The choice, I submit, is still ours--but won't be for much longer.
I would be happy to answer any questions that you or the Subcommittee members might have.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The amount of physical cash relative to the total money supply is fairly
small. A figure I read said that the ratio of virtual dollars to real
dollars is about 10 to 1. The disappearance of "cybermoney" in the year
2000 means that the money supply will be cut drastically. This needs to
be considered in the inflation/deflation issue as well. Without reliable
computers, the government would have to print lots of physical money.
Maybe they will just add zeroes to the numbers on the bills, eh?

farfel: Interesting?? Yes, the markets are always interesting. They can be profitable, too, for those who are on the right side of them. And I AM going to bed. goodnite and good luck. If you agree with all the posts on this board about a stock bear market being in progress, God knows you will need the luck. But I'm sure you know better.: ) Gone from here.

...about the yellow stuff?

Tell us the inside scoop.

Thanks.

F*

The odd thing about Australia, is its politicians.

Spin Doctors. Peter Costello the Federal Treasurer - the only thing he has got going for himself is his f**k**g grin. Johnny Howard,oh dear time slips by when you least expect it to do so. Beasly, a Rhodes Scholor just like Clinton ( both most likely Fabians ) - nudge, nudge, wink, wink, so no more - selected not elected ?!

One possible scenario concering the sold Australia gold.

It was sold to the Koreans, who then sold it to Soros.

Never mind, "plenty" of gold in the ground, was the cry from Costello. Resources and reserves, it is the reserves that represent "money". Resources have to be mined, processed and a gold bar produced - ALL a function of the gold price.

We now have an interesting scenario in Australian politics - the One Nation Party and Ms Pauline Hanson. She gained 25% of the vote in Queensland state election, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Federal.

Plenty of trees in Aussie ..... the problem is that now a days the currency notes are PLASTIC....print, print, print .......

I think I will peg some gold exploration and mining tenements, via my database of 57 000 mineral locations in Australia. It has to rain some day ?!

the primary price control mechanism for the POG. We are at a critcial
juncture in the world financial system, with the end of the US dollar
hegemony, and the introduction of the EURO. For the next 6 months,
it is my opinion that the ECB wants the POG below $300. It is
using low lease rates relative to prime lending rates in the US to
facilitate the gold carry trade, and short selling to flood the spot market. In fact the CBs have been doing this for the past 5 years in
order to keep the price artificially low, and to accumulate more to
back the EURO. The US goes along because they are anti gold.

Sometimes the CBs lose control and we have a gold bull. GOLD BULLS
OCCUR WHEN 1 YEAR LEASE RATES RISE TO 3% AND FORWARD RATES GET DOWN TO
2.2 - 2.4%. Forward rates are the difference between prime and lease rates. When forward rates narrow to less than 2.5%, the gold carry
trade is extinguished, and supply and demand fundamentals take over
and the POG goes up. The short overhang residual from the gold carry
pushes the spot through the roof. Joe public notices the action and
jumps on and the pog is out of control for the next two or three years.

This scenario occurred in the 1987-89 period and in the 1993-96 period.
It was particularly marked in Jan 1996 when forward rates dropped to
2.2% and gold jumped to $410. Forward rates are now 3.75% for 1 year
leases. The pog is safely under control under these conditions.
It's simple really, the POG is not a market, it's a manipulation.
Gold is political.

You may ask, why am I in gold? In times of great financial instability
like now, the CBs can lose control. The European CBs may actually
lose control intentually in their conflict with the dollar.

FWIW Sell ABX on reversal date July 25 stop 1/2 above the close.

A man who saves every penny, builds a grat fortune, and dies in rags and starvation because he hasn't spent a cent has lived as much of a life of poverty as the man who never made a dime.

Dollars printed but held in the reserves od central banks have added as little to inflation as dollars never printed at all.

Dollars moved into circulation from static reserves will add as much to inflation as dollars newly created and put into circulation.

July 25 should read June 25.

...when old Soros ran off to Korea to encourage them to sell their gold in order to shore up their economy.

The impression created: billionaire geniuses like SOROS think gold is of secondary importance to US notes.

The reality: he MUST be buying ( along with several other of his elite buddies ) like there is no tomorrow.

Thanks.

F*

If the central banks truly believe gold to no longer be of any monetary worth but just a commodity, then why would they be anti gold? Why not anti zinc or anti soybeans or anti oil or anti any other commodity? Why pick on gold?

If they believe gold to be of monetary value then why be anti gold? Why not be anti dollar or anti lire or anti peso or anti any other currency? Why pick on gold?

for the un-believers.............

look upon the future of the grains.....as extolled by the driver
of the ssm...........

the other golden one............
as told here at kitco...........

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha10.gif

the grains are going to make a run at historical highs.......

ALLABOARD....wooooooooooooooo...wooooooooooooooooooo.....wooooooooooooo

cherokee!; ) thanking.all.who.deserve.it............

A comment from Bill Murphy of Veneroso Associates posted today...


Buffets move in silver is very positive for silver. The setback here is due to scrap mobilizations,etc. We know for a fact that Buffet is pleased that silver has set back because it will eat up the supply at a faster pace than if the price stayed higher, which means it will require an even higher price to ration future supply. Therefore, he might be able to sell out at say $12 instead of $10. He is holding the course.
Rumor today ( and I mean rumor ) is that Soros is joining him.
Bill

...for the Australian government to sell its entire gold reserve to a billionaire individual.

Very embarassing if gold were to take off shortly thereafter.

An entire country bested by one individual...never looks good, does it?

Best to camouflage the transaction via another nation's ( Korea ) gold sale.

When you get right down to it, what the hell was Soros doing in Korea in the first place? Simply acting as a cheerleader for Korea's gold sale?

Ridiculous!

No, he was there to finalize personally the gold transaction on his behalf.

Thanks.

F*

...so tell me more.

Is the US government acquiring gold "on the sneak" as well?

Preparations for the upcoming currency wars with Europe?

Opinions?

Thanks.

F*

And a huge after dinner Cuervo GULP to YA! Good grief Bully, that's not a lake, its an ocean! Beendoing my part to inform people about gold and Y2K and why red meat is good for the soul...

It is a tough job, but a barbarian has to do what a barbarian has to do.

I have been trying to follow your lead, but sometimes there is no way
that I can effect the trades without suffering greatly, as I cannot watch
the boards 24 hours per day. Tell me, please, what should I do with my
July Silver contracts? Sell immediately, and buy farther out contracts, at
a later date? I like the idea of owning some futures contracts.
Where do you see this "seasonal weakness" going, reference spot
price?

( "Hope" is worthless, and "random chance" hasn't leaned in my favor! )

Thank you

Company "As" computer is non Y2K compliant and transmits
some erroneously calculated data on to 10 Y2K compliant
computers. Each of these 10 compliant computers processes
this data and then transits their resulting data on to another
10 compliant computers. The process is repeated once again.
What is the end result?

The end result is we have 1,111 computers not only storing,
but performing all future calculations on erroneous
data when only 1 of those computers was non compliant.
Just imagine the difficulty in identifying the source of the
problem when it finally comes to someones attention.
What about rectifying the problem? Mind boggling.

Far fetched ?. I think not, A computer that is Y2K compliant
simply means that when the clock strikes 12:00 a.m. Jan 1/2000
THAT particular computer should not create problems or
"screw up" BECAUSE OF the time change. It does NOT mean
that because it is compliant it will recognise GARBAGE DATA
being fed into it.

I think this is one of the most misunderstood aspects of Y2K.
That is the contagion or domino effect if you like.

If Company "A" is a Bank, Brokerage Firm or any other type
of Financial Institution, not to mention any number of other
sectors, the potential for absolute mayhem is tremendous.

IMHO.

GOOOOOOO GOLD..

There comes a time when the new Euro becomes a circulating currency. Presumably at this time the central banks will have Euros as a part of their reserves whereas now they just have dollars, gold, and other curriencies. Could someone tell me how these Euro reserves come into existence? Do they sell dollars or gold to acquire them? Acquire them from whom? Do they simply create them out of thin air? If so, does this sudden new amount of money create world inflation to any extent?

I am going to retire now, but I will look for any replies in the morning.

Any IT professionals ever log onto this group and comment on Y2K? I've just now started paying attention to it .... always thought ( not MUCH thought, mind you ) that since the problem is so technically trivial that plans to deal with it would be obvious and in process. Oh well. I sometimes forget to take lawyers into account. Seems some of them have been telling their clients that a failed attempt to deal with the problem can cost them more in a lawsuit than simply doing nothing would. Good 'ole U.S. of A.

Back to my stupidity. Here's the basic reason why the millenium bug is such a problem: it's a trivial technical problem, that exists in a million places. Any one fix is trivial .... getting it done in so many places ( and in time ) is not. I suspect it's going to be a biggie in many ways, especially since we also very cleverly planned to have a massive planet-wide financial bubble all pumped up at the same time.

Daily NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange and Johannesburg Stock Exchange closing prices expressed in US$ for DROOY are available at http://www.drd.co.za/

Good point ( your 1:02 ) , but you're missing part of it. Before two computers can talk, they have to agree on the format of the data, or the transmission is gobbledygook ( did I spell that right? ) . Part of being "Y2K compliant" is the processing of "filtering" data. Kinda like Word being able to read all Wordstar files. This will greatly help to alleviate that problem.

Let me ellaborate. Whenever you write new software that handles a new format, you build into it the ability to handle the old data ( concept is backward compatibility ) . Though Windows95 digs long file names, it can still handle the 8.3 file names inherited from DOS and Win31.

Much the same sort of thing is being done with software that handles data for the 21st century: it either deals correctly with old data ( because it recognizes the format and knows what to do with it ) or rejects it because it doesn't recognize the format.

The idea that "bad data" will just proliferate is incorrect ( at least, that MHO today ) . If you send data to a system that it is not designed to recognize, it just rejects it. If the proliferation of bad data were really a potential problem, data communications would already have been brought to its knees, since there are already a thousand different ways to encode date, Y2K compatible or otherwise. All these systems would be crashing each other left and right.

A device fails to be Y2K compliant when ITs data format can't handle the REAL date being '00.

Good posts and questions on Y2K. Agree with comments and have the same questions. I am somewhere between idiot and moron when it comes to programming and software. I don't even have a bloody computer! Got this Webtv thing that you hook up to your TV and phone line, and voila, you are on the internet.

With all due respect, I don't think in my post
I missed part of it. Think of it this way, I send
you an E-Mail, the content can factual, i.e.
the data is accurate or it could be all B.S.,
you are going to receive it in any event.

Perhaps a more to the point example of what I was
trying to get at, January 2nd, 2000 you go to a local
retail store and make a purchase. You try to pay for
your purchase with your bank card, the clerk tells you
that your payment is denied because of insufficient
funds, you know the funds are there. The problem is
the information your bank card holder sent the retailer
is erroneous because of Y2K problems on their end,
it has nothing to do with "FORMAT" of files, it has
"EVERYTHING" to do with data being transmitted.

Does this clarify my contention at all ?

Good example. Downstream Y2K compliant systems do not, in your example, have a problem with the DATE as encoded by the non-compliant system, because it is not a date that is proliferated. Rather, it is a bogus result, a side effect of being non-compliant, that is proliferated.

Please do not cease the use of the expression "gulp". My comments Sunday night were just an attempt on my part to share the chuckle I was getting from it all.

A gulp to ya'all!

But back to my original point. What I was trying to say was that the mere existence of data formatted with the old style of encoding dates should not bring down a Y2K compliant system. The proliferation of side-effects you describe will occur, but a non-compliant system will not , by outputting data that is non compliant, bring down a compliant system. ( One of the things we worry about with the Y2K problem is critical system just plain crashing ) . This is what I was trying to point out. The existence of non-compliant data in the world of IT will not bring down these systems.

Another Y2K note:

One of the things the world is going to have to get used to is the idea that any system not shipped before 1999 is potentially junk.

I'm really dissapointed with everyone, there is just two much agreement on Kitco. I was hopeing for some action between DBOG and SlingShot, but no they ending up in total ( uggh ) harmony.

Hey what odds would I get in a bet that Klinton goes to China and stays there? The biggest obsticle to that happening would be that his Chinese Masters order him back to Washington.

Auric, you are neither idiot or moron, otherwise you
wouldn't be visiting this site. In my humble opinion.
As regards to Y2K and computers. You, I think, verified
my position, you say you don't even have a computer
and yet I am able to communicate with you electronically,
that is my point, the "FORMAT" of file exchange is
unimportant, the fact that i transmitted to you is important.
the content of what was transmitted is "up for grabs"

Does this make any sense to you ?

I should have said "after 1999", not "before".

MJPL: last time I saw that idea about Klinton not coming back ( I'm trying to figure out why I like that spelling of the Molester in Chief's surname ) I recall the best return comment was that they didn't care where he went, as long as he didn't come back.

Ya I know, but I asked what odds do you think I could get.

I did not say in any of my posts anything about
the "bringing down of systems" what I did refer to
in my posts was the proliferation of erroneous data,
and I stand by that assertion.

With all due respect

Y2K "bug" is, by definition, a format problem. Older designs encoding the date in a format that can't handle 99 rolling over to 00. Then the system barfs, crashes, or sometimes does nothing of any note; when the real date does just that. Depends on the system. It think, if we disagree on anything at all here, it's on a definition of terms.

Note that you and Auric can communicate electronically because Kitco site carefully controls the format. Else there could be problems.

I too like spelling Klinton with a K. It has a good feel to it. For myself I think it is becouse of Col. Klink of Hogan Heros fame. Washington seem today to be much like "Staloc ( ? ) 13" with President Klinton holding down the fort. Col. Hogan is played by some Chinese guy with more control to the cookie jar than Col. Klinton has. But the big question I have is, who plays Sargeant Shultz, Janet Reno?

Yes, it makes sense. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The internet allows folks to exchange thoughts, ideas, and even emotions. Kitco is proof of that, eh! : )

Daniel. 2, 31-45

You Saw, O king, and behold, a great image.
This image, mighty and of exceeding brightness, stood before you., and its appearance was frightening.
The head of this image was of fine gold, its breast and arms of silver, its belly and thighs of bronze, its legs of iron, its feet partly of iron and partly of clay. As you looked, a stone was cut out by no human hand, and it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces; then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors; and the wind carried them away, so that not a trace of them could be found. But the stone that struck the image became a great mountain and filled the whole earth."
"This was the dream; now we will tell the king its interpretation. You O king, the king of kings, to whom the God of heaven has given the kingdom, the power, and the might, and the glory, and into whose hand he has given, wherever they dwell, the sons of men, the beasts of the field, and the birds of the air, making you rule over them all -- you are the head of gold. After you shall arise another kingdom inferior to you, and yet a third kingdom of bronze, which shall rule over all the earth. And there shall be a forth kingdom, strong as iron, because iron breaks to pieces and shatters all things; and like iron which crushes, it shall break and crush all these. And as you saw the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom; but some of the firmness of iron shall be in it, just as you saw iron mixed with the miry clay. And as the toes of the feet were partly iron and partly clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong and partly brittle. As you saw the iron mixed with miry clay, so they will mix with one another in marriage, but they will not hold together, just as iron does not mix with clay. And in the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom which shall never be destroyed, nor shall its sovereignty be left to another people. It shall break in pieces all these kingdoms and bring them to an end, and it shall stand for ever; just as you saw that a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand, and that it broke in pieces the iron, the bronze, the clay, the silver, and the gold. A great God has made known to the king what shall be hereafter. The dream is certain, and its interpretation sure."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Perchance;
--a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand = silicon chip

--it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces = technology crash

--then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors = modern society dissipating

--the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom = Europe

--mix with one another in marriage , but they will not hold together = ECU failure

~~~~~~~~~
Many other pieces fit into place with this piece
And much more can be read into it.

Does it bear consideration???

Thou art that head of gold
And also thine the feet of clay
And thine the body, and the mind
That veils the spirit
And thru the years, designed
The soul enclosing walls
That mar our way

Thine is the bright observant eye
The spirit strong
The will to follow
The way, as stumbling on
We see -- clear, more clearly
On the morrow

For ever was it so
The dream, the vision and the grail
But the body
Oh the well loved flesh
With all its stubborn will to fail

We need must pray
Dear head of gold
Be still and pray
Dear heart, in faith forever strive
That other better way to hold
And stumble on with feet of clay
The golden dream to keep alive.


Daniel 2.31. " You saw, O King, and behold a great image."

I do not KNOW the Y2K compliance spec requires the ability to filter old style data, but it makes no sense to me that it wouldn't. I'll check with our Y2K guy ( the engineer assigned to making sure that all our stuff is compliant ) at work and get back to you.

In fact, it is this need to handle old data and stop it from proliferating ( as "bad data" ) past nodes that are Y2K compliant that accounts for a large part of the huge workload in building Y2K compliant devices and systems. There's a lot of legacy data as well as legacy code to deal with.

For Rhody ..
Lease rates are the lead indicator.. You're right.
We should be watching them.

For Oldman
You are right too. New high coming .. may be the last.
I said S&P 1180/1200 some time back .. puts would look
sweet then.

For Cheesehead ..
Last week you said gold up, dow crash, dollar crash.
But it went the other way. You missed it !
Where did you go ?? Cheerleader practice ?? Cis
Boom Bah.

For Bloomer ..
I think you see bottoms everywhere .. maybe you
should see a shrink about this.

hm not sure but would hazzard a guess,hopefully not sell gold as that will continue to exist,howerver the various currencies ,DM,FFR, etc will be cancelled out at some time according to what ever the agreed exchange rate was ( mastricht moving goal posts permitting ) .

As both national currencies & the dreaded EURO will initially circulate together with the national currencies dissapearing over 2 years ( I think ) Government bonds & commercial paper will be coverted ~ and national reserves will become "Euro " reserves i.e of the Combined Euro reserves say equivalent of 250Bn US $ is the total of thye national currencies ellement of reserves they will at the stroke of the Bureacratic pen become X Euros. and reserves should then be made up of GOLD US $ Yen SFrs etc.and of course Euros

There will need to be a mechanism for Non European countries to convert their existing their reserves of European currencies into Euros ..this will cause heavy speculation in the run up to "D" Day.

Personal views on Euro ~ the excercise is totally political, and crazy with very poor timing ( Y2K with its imoveable deadline ) and with interest rates not in sync ........ ( or creatively in sync ) if Tony blair tries to leap in with the UK and our int rates dropped there would be rampant property inflation.

But the biggest criticism is we are told that there is no way out ..once you are in ...that would mean if it all went pear shaped the European members would live for EVER in Caos ..? Crap IMHO it means that the public/politicians must not consider the alternatives.

And the euro gravy train rolls on....and on..

Go Gold

cpo

Sgt. Schultz is best exemplified by the majority of American citizens. As long as the Dow is up and the economy is humming, they "see nussing and know nussing!" If Klinton were bald, he would have been out a long time ago!

Don't know who's right or wrong on this proliferation of bad data thing. I hope you're wrong, because if you aren't, then a lot of IT professionals are doing their job in a half-assed fashion. Preventing the proliferation of bad data that you describe is an obvious and necessary part of fixing the Y2K problem, and if they haven't thought of it, they're just not doing their jobs right. I agree that it COULD happen, I just feel that it SHOULDN'T. IMHO.

Almighty God, creator of the universe, Jehovah will crush all the man made kingdoms of gold, silver, copper, iron, and clay and set up His kingdom here on earth as He originally intended it from the time of Adam and Eve. This Kingdom is what we pray for when we pray, " let your Kingdom come here on earth as it is in Heaven".

Quite right! A gulp to ya'

Your concern for Klinton ......releive you boredom and visit the following http://www.astropro.com/1996elct.html Klinton will not complete his second term of office ie impeached or the usual way of disposing of US presidents...... youmay dissregard the info but at least speculate the new devil who will replace Klinton



chear up go and upset some gold shorts ......



cpo

Sorry, tried posting to you for the past
hour but something was frigged up.

Anyway, If this one gets thru to ya,
I'll take ya up on yer bet. But, just in case
B.C. don't make it home, we have to set some
guidelines, You can't have shot him out of the
skies, You can't be affiliated with anyone else
that might have, you have to promise that you
know nothing about what happend, even though
you don't like the SOB.

Now, for the bet, a "C" note that he makes her
home, you have to give me 10 to 1 odds and yer on.

Whadya Say ?

Normally I would scorn any astrologer, but this one apparently is a Libertarian astrologer, so I will assume an attitude of polite tolerance. ( biggest problem with Libertarians is that they all suffer from the "Egalitarian Fallacy": they think their opinions are as good as mine! ) .

But of course it is visit http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html ommit the "en " if they are not they will have real problems....

cpo

As the value of the US$ goes up----the value of gold goes down

Tolerate fine but Richard Nolle ,if you go back at forcaste/ result, does a better job with the weather, quakes etc that the weatherman and seismologists .

Astrologers forecast ( with cycles ) , Dr's diagnose,economists ~ well they never agree, as with all skills some get it right more often than others AS J.P Morgan Said Millionaires don't use astrollogers but billionaire's do.......if only to get an idea what info/intelligence the opposition is getting.........nothing is infallible ( even Klinton the teflon pres. )

Then again information gathering is one thing the important part is how it is used......No ? As far as political opinions go some follow the same team until they die others change teams.....but as one gets older and wiser it is just vote for the lesser evil..



take care..

cpo

AlGore the Veep is going bald!
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a345548.htm

Was not meaning to dis bald dudes. Used to be balding too until I got some of them hair transplants. Looks good and natural like. At 2000 worthless fiat Federal Reserve Notes a session, it bloody well better!

So you've spent 10 years and $7 billion upgrading your system-
you would think that the latest version of the software would
be capable of handling old data formats- even debugging-mode
data from other software that was there in the previous version
and hasn't changed. Except that, as Year 2000 hasn't been seen
before, neither has the particular launch velocity of Ariane 5.
This space software bug demonstrates clearly the wider
implications of the Y2K bug.

http://www.porkpie.demon.co.uk/space.htm

I don't pretend to know why the CB's sell gold, or hold down the price, or do any of the things they do. I only found out about them reading posts on this forum but...
Obviously gold provides "accountablity" for their function. They want to stack their own deck.
Naw, they do that already.
Maybe they are really "together" on this, really together.
I don't know, but I'd like to know....Are you making riddles??
Yeah, that's a good question.

One thing that amazes me is how high a % of posters@Kitco>posters@Kitco are IT people.
There are many here who post regularly who have only recently just admitted to their vast knowledge on IT.
I don't know why they held this in the dark?
Seems like the more Y2k talk, the more they surface.
Or admit their interest....

I think that this is very important.
Why so many IT experts so interested in gold?

There may be 30 odd posters here@Kitco who are in the PC field???
Maybe 10 who are at the cutting edge in Y2k remediation???
This is a high %%% of Kitco posters.

This site is regarded by many as a gloom & doomers site.
Yet why are so many IT experts resident here.
And as to their opinion???....

We all believe in gold and the fore-coming gold boom.
Why so many IT's believe in this - my guess is
Chaos and capitulation to knowledge.
Smart people I guess.

They mightn't talk about it but their presence speaks volumes.

I personally would love to see a dbase of posters@Kitco.
Their jobs and qualifications.
This site is comprised of many lucid intellectuals.
You must respect this facet.
It is truly a credit to Kitco.

Kudos to the mighty Kauri.
Kudos to knowledge.

Kudos to the coming gold bull.
Just a pup to date.

Being a science fiction reader from way back I couldn't help but be intrigued a
few years ago by Isaac Asimov's Foundation books. One of the themes in the
series was that sooner or later a society collapses under it's own
tehcnological weight because it no longer has enough people to maintain it. Is
this what we are seeing? Is y2k or something like it just an unavoidable
effect of rapid technological progress?

Patrick Carr
pondering


Harry Seldon found that the only way out was through. He formed the Foundations
with the intention of reducing the period of chaos from millennia to one
millennium. Something along similar lines is probably our best option now--being
as late in the game as it is.

waker

i to have been put in the doom & gloomer corner for the last 8 mths ( till last week! ) now they just scratch thier heads.

you hit the nail on the head, sir.

i find it highly scary that the most knowledgeable about computers are at least worried about the y2k problem ( as compared to blase feelings from the majority of the population ) .

ask any IT professional you know and you'll get a range of responses to the y2k bug potential but I think you'll find a highly significant proportion of them will take a minimum of precautions for the potential disaster ( like taking most of the savings out of the bank and paying off their debts and keeping *some* hard assets ) .

personally, i'm supposed to be a medical student but i dream of being a ... ahem ... successful goldbug

as to my level of IT knowledge, well, I'll claim to be "above-average" ( I only run my own RedHat Linux server ) but I'll be pulling my money out from the banks in increasing amounts come 1999.

can a single bad line of code bring down entire systems? oh yeah. most definitely. will bad data ( e.g. wrong date ) do this? probably not but ... ... who will then guarantee the integrity of whatever processing is done that depends on that data?


today's quote of the day:
"Remember, Grasshopper, falling down 1000 stairs begins by tripping over
the first one."
-- Confusion



now where's that tequila?

NSDQ100 SEP98 1309.25A -950

HighRise

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/japan_spen_1.html

June 24, 1998
Russia's Central Bank: Selling Palladium With Producers

Dow Jones Newswires

MOSCOW -- The Central Bank of Russia has been selling palladium onto the
international market, the bank said Wednesday."Recently, the central bank has been participating in the sales of palladium together with Russian producers according to the rules of international trading, strictly within the limits defined by the Russian authorities," the bank said in a release.

Amid the current financial crisis, the bank has had to defend the ruble and is struggling to maintain its foreign exchange reserves steady. Normally, Russia exports platinum group metals through the state-controlled agency Almazyuvelirexport.

Earlier Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported Almaz as denying press reports that the central bank intends to export 200 metric tons of palladium. The bank declined to comment on sales volumes.

Almaz's Deputy General Director, Sergei Gorny, rejected the press reports as "rubbish", but did concede that the central bank could have that much of the metal in its vaults. Political infighting for the control of these exports delayed them for months this and last year.

RAO Norilsk Nickel produces most of Russia's palladium. The country supplies around 60% of the world palladium.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/russia_pal_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/dollar_yen_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/no_artific_1.html

JAPAN: FROM WORSE TO WORST

Thinks that the Japanese must sell treasuries.

http://www.stockhouse.com/news_letters/cyriuss/jun98/062398.asp

Sharfin

I want to come "out of the closet". I'm in management as an IT professional. I work for a Fortune 500 manufacturing company. We just successfully completed our Y2K systems wide testing this past weekend. We feel fairly confident that we should only be caught by minor glitches, if any. However, best laid plans, you know.

I'm a gold bug because of economic/financial reasons, not because I'm in IT. Don't know if Kitco has a disproportionate percentage of IT people, or if IT people make up a disproportionate percentage of the population?

Cat and mouse. They stuck their nose outside the hole a bit last night and then scurried back in when they thought they heard a noise. They'll do it again, then get a little braver...

If the cat pounces we'll see another cycle like we did the first time except perhaps a bit stronger.

If the cat has gone away, then the fat's in the fire.

the idea of holding gold as a monetary reserve.
In a currency crisis/war, gold is yourweapon
of mass destruction, the ultimate defense.
No the CBs are not anti owning gold. They
are anti YOUR owning gold. So they attack
the spot POG via lease rates to keep the
price discredited in the eyes of the public.

I repeat, if 1 year lease rates are held
below 3% and this combines with a forward
rate of over 2.5% caused by a relatively
high prime rate in the United States, gold
will remain a discredited substance,as
the gold carry trade constantly short sells
the spot POG down.

The CBs think the gold leased through the
gold carry trade is comming back. they still
count this gold as part of their reserves.
But it's gone. It is truly sold, gone.
This leased/sold gold now amounts to 8000
tonnes. If there is a default, if the CBs
demand repayment, if lease rates rise, the
short covering, defaults, scandal, and
panic buying will cause the spot POG to
explode.

The CBs are not anti-gold. They are anti
the general public owning gold. If the
general public were to find out what gold
is really worth, the world will change
overnight. The POG is clamped down now,
but the CBs know this can not be carried
on indefinitely, as gold under $300 is
below the cost of production of over
half of the world's mining industry They
cannot afford to destroy their future source
of gold ( after all, they have already sold off
one quarter of their supplies ) , so eventually
they must turn down the gold carry trade.
Watch the lease rates. We should be able to
tell when they start to do this. That will
be the time to buy, unless they lose control
before that. What could cause them to lose control
before 1999? Try this:

1 ) Bank failures
2 ) a major default by a gold fund in the gold carry trade
3 ) mine closures because the CBs miscalculated the price stress duration
4 ) formation of a gold cartel or a threatened formation of a gold cartel
5 ) a war
6 ) an oil shock
7 ) hyperinflation
8 ) _________________ ( add one of your own )

FORWARD RATES BELOW 2.5% PRECIPITATE A GOLD BULL. Forward rates are
listed here on the Kitco Web site, along with monthly through yearly
lease rates. Please keep an eye on them. They are SO important.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980623/mexico_cou_1.html

http://www.computerworld.com/home/news.nsf/all/9806231year2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
World IT Congress: US citizens alarmed by Y2K, study says
http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=57012
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Year 2000 Problem Worries Americans
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/06/23/BU26036.DTL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
An Increase in Federal Y2K Awareness
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/WI/JW/wi9825.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sounds like everyone's concerned except for EB and Ted.
Maybe they're smarter than the rest of us?
Gee, I wish this was so.

It all comes back to cause and effect.
The cause is there
And we wait and see???

Just curious...
When I asked my superiors in our I.S. department about how they are planning to deal with the outside world ( suppliers, customers, etc. ) on Y2K compliance, they had no ready answer. Maybe they will just sue 'em, eh? What about your company's same?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980623/indonesia__3.html

To all; Have been very involved with "WHY To Kay" and am no expert, or IT specialist. The closest
to this field that I've come, is that I've fathered a daughter that's a senior computer programmer.
However I have read all I can get my hands on. I've discussed this topic with friends, both on the
net as well as directly. Maybe I'm being overly pessemistic, and I hope it's as simple as that, but
from having put together all of the info, I've gathered and observed and discounted and stirred around in
my internal computer, I call my brain ( maybe soul ) , I see things pretty dismally.

My observation is that most of the specialists, and politicians, especially those that have been
open and honest, are mostly from the western world. Now we do live on this planet, not in isolation
but very much interrelated. When things go sour in Asia, the popular method of solving any problem
is just throw more money at it. Here we are faced with a new problem, that involves many aspects of
what we have become used to as life, the way it's lived today. If, as can be expected, from what I've read
the Russian nuclear power plants shut down automatically due to y2k, or one of the many nations
with a gripe with it's neighbor, decides the time to strike is when the enemy, or neighbor, is defenseless.
Or any other scenario of your choosing. What happens to the world as a whole? Do the compliant
systems mean anything anymore? If in a country, the power supply goes down, and the related
communications, and water system, and sewage systems stop functioning, what good is all of
the money that is now being spent, or thrown at the problem of compliance and testing?

The way I see things, is exactly the way Yardeni stated it, prepare for the worst and hope for the
best. HOWEVER, I am totally upset with the people around me,all the way up to the media, and
the governments, that are not making preparations for the potential disaster that could develop.

I know that if this would be considered as top priority, which I feel it should be, and everyone shares
and assists in plans to prepare the public, slowly at first, but more as it is accepted mentally, and
emotionally, to make adjustments to their lives. Especially the survival aspects, then there is a chance to avoid catastrophe.

For some, they are preparing to head for the hills, and defend their nest. Most are not even recognizing
the potential problems. Noone with authority seems to be making an effort to warn of the potential
problems, and how best to deal with them, as a community of say a building, or a neighborhood or a town.

Wait and see, and hope for the best, and if wrong, then what?

Lester Thurrow in a Boston Globe financial editorial a few months back suggested that not only governments but oil producers and others who hold currency reserves will begin to sell dollars in 1999 to buy euros in order to diversify their reserves. He did not suggest a net increase in reserves. He speculated that if this happens quickly enough, that this euros-for-dollars trading activity may well trigger a run on the dollar. I'll see if I can dig up to piece.
-EJ

Seems we are keeping ourselves entertained, here, as markets again are as close to unchanged as possible. Thank you Rhody on the insight relative to the lease rates. Will you please yell real load when the lease rates moves through 2.5% or what ever signals the sea change. Your multiple posts on that subject at that time will be welcome.

Frankly, I wouldn't have a metal position if I thought the European Central Banks could stay in control of the gold beast. With every factor in their favor the yellow metal is seathing to go against them and reveal their house of cards. Given the level of communication and the quickness with which funds can usually be moved the gold rally when it occurs may very well be very swift and violent once any head of steam is devloped. It will after all be a massive short covering rally.

Concerning the Y2K thing - could somebody tell me what "IT" is ???. Don't think I'm one of 'em. Thank god we have 2YK to worry, write and expound upon. My apparently uniformed opinion is that it will be the loudest cry of wolf ever uttered. If a few damn computers shut down it may just be a better world for a while. Wouldn't it be horrible if those who need to upgrade get the job done and there isn't a horrible problem - the the 2YK crew won't have the end of the modern world to point and and say "I was right" Similar position to the gold bugs who were right that there would be economic crisis of a major kind and here gold is weak.

How about the Russians and their Palladium???? Do they have it, did they dell it?? Why aren't they negotiating with the Japanese, who are they selling it too. Frankly, I think they are doing a pretty good marketing job. The market for Palladium is pretty steady at $300. Their sales haven't knocked the legs out from under PD, and they haven't had to reveal that their stockpile is depleted and the world is in a tremendous deficit position which has the benefit of keeping manufacturing enities from finding substitutes.

NASDAQ quote ( dn 950 ) I think was incorrect, last I saw which was just a few minutes ago the change was -25.

Bottom line for me: confidence in US paper is too high, the world economic financial managers don't get great grades in my book. This is summer and things will be quiet; the fall and winter will come ( if 2YK problem don't stop that ) and gold will rise. It may take a dump before that; I'm keeping some powder dry in that event, but I think the Central Bankers will lose it along here and gold will surprise all its skeptics by a significant degree.

Got to go and get some buy orders in.

The Introduction of the Euro
Compilation of Community Legislation and Related Documents
October 1997
Directorate General II
Economic and Financial Affairs

G. Other legislation, pgs. 108-125
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Community, and in particular Article 104b ( 2 )
thereof,
Having regard to the proposal from the Commission ( 1 ) ,
In cooperation with the European Parliament ( 2 ) ,
Whereas Articles 104 and 104b ( 1 ) of the Treaty are directly applicable; whereas the terms featuring in
Articles 104 and 104b ( 1 ) may be specified, if necessary;

Whereas it is desirable that the national central banks participating in the third stage of Economic and Monetary Union should enter such Union having on their balance sheets claims negotiable under market conditions, in particular to give the required flexibility to the monetary policy of the European System of Central Banks and to permit a standard contribution from the various national central banks participating in monetary union to the monetary income to be distributed among them;

Whereas the central banks which, after 1 January 1994, still hold claims against the public sector which are non-negotiable or are subject to conditions which are not market conditions should be authorized
subsequently to convert such claims into negotiable fixed-maturity securities under market conditions;

Whereas, within the limits laid down in this Regulation, the direct acquisition by the central bank of one Member State of marketable debt instruments issued by the public sector of another Member State does
not help to shield the public sector from the discipline of market mechanisms where such purchases are conducted for the sole purpose of managing foreign exchange reserves;

Whereas the holding by the central banks of coins issued by the public sector and credited to the public ector constitutes an interest-free form of credit for the public sector; whereas, however, if only limited
amounts are involved, this practice does not interfere with the principle of Article 104 of the Treaty; whereas, therefore, in view of the difficulties which would arise from total prohibition of this form of
credit, it may be permitted within the limits laid down in this Regulation;

Whereas, following unification, the Federal Republic of Germany has particular difficulty in complying with the limit set on such assets; whereas it is appropriate in those circumstances to authorize a higher
percentage for a limited period;

Whereas the financing by the central banks of obligations falling upon the public sector vis--vis the International Monetary Fund or resulting from the implementation of the medium-term financial assistance facility set up within the Community results in foreign claims which have all the
characteristics of reserve assets; whereas it is, therefore, appropriate to authorize them;

COMMENT: As you can see, the question of "monetary reserves" is a labyrinth  working on a 'marking the maze' system {:- ) )

Preacher

I was glad that you got to talk to boss at SIlver Standard. The Teck
stock sale regardless of the size sends a vote of no confidence in
the SSRIF management.

As for my comment on a PR replacement, whenever a newsletter writer
like Jim Blanchard pumps up your company with pure BS it can hurt
your stock price more than it can help it. ( Blanchard saying SSRIF
would have 1 billion oz of silver reserves in th 93-94 time frame ) .

You can burned in Russia real quick if you don't scratch palms of
every local politician and it takes deep pockets to do it.

Have you heard of anybody talking about Barrick buying anything
in Russia.

I really dont feel competent to give an outlook, what globally will happen on 1/1/00, decades before I was born in terms of dd/mm/yy. I prefer the micro-aspects - single economic units with some data-connections to their environment, some of them transmitting data, some receiving and processing to a third party. Some having their books and balance-sheets outsourced, transmitting data and receiving summaries once a week / a month.
Some times ago, I had a vision - armies of people controlling lists, rows and columns in databases. Secretaries occupied with apologizing on the telephone because of delayed deliveries, multiple posted bills, admonitions for money already received years ago.
The micro-bug. Minor problems in minor companies, years of manpower to fix them, to control them. And costs, costs, costs.

TO ALL NEWCOMERS, LURKERS, ETC WHO WISH TO KNOW MORE ABOUT Y2K -
DON'T EXPECT THE POSTERS HERE TO REPOST EVERYTHING JUST FOR YOU.
For gosh sakeS!
Use your mouse buttons!
Go back a month on the posts here, pick a day, any day, click all the time boxes and load up the day's comments. I do it often for those days for which I need to catch up.
Allow yourself a weekend of reading to catch up on all the serious, validated, documented, cross-referenced, posts on Y2K or year2000.
Just reading Sharefin's posts would give you an education!
Some of your fellow Kitcoites are in the business of trying to head of this train wreck. They know what they are talking about!
There are so many urls to year2000 sites posted here that you may need another weekend just to catch up on those.
When you get through scanning even a tenth of the work your fellow Kitcoites have put into RESEARCHING this topic you will then believe Y2K is serious. You may even be scared enough to lay in a pile of food, etc. like squirrel did. Some fellow Kitcoites are liquidating their assets to buy physical Gold, Silver, and other necessities for the coming hard times.
IF AFTER ALL WE HAVE SAID HERE YOU STILL THINK Y2K IS A CRY OF WOLF - PARDON THE EXPRESSION - BUT YOU HAVE YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND!

Jean Marie Eveliard meantions you can own shares in B.I.S.

Anyone know where to get a quote and finacial stats on this stock?

Thanks,



HB

yen at 140.15

Rhody: Thanks for hitting us over the head repeatedly about the vital importance of lease and forward rates! Looks like some SA mining execs ahve been reading your posts One was quoted as saying that if the CBs hiked the lease rate to 5%, POG would climb 15%.

The reason Y2K will be a BiG problem is denial. It is ( pardom me, was ) solvable, but companies have put this of to the bitter end to save a few dollars, and they will pay a hefty price - if they survive.
Programmers are still available, but many companies still are not commited to admit they have a problem, and spend the required money to make the changes.
As we approach the millenium, the rates are skyrocketing.......

the yearly rate, they would instantly lose control of the spot
POG, unless the Prime was also raised. 5% indeed. In their dreams.

http://www.swissinvest.com

There are two BIS shares - symbols BIZ and BIB; I don't remember the difference between them. Swiss shares are typcially VERY expensive, but can be bought as singles or small lots.

In the case of a Y2K problem there may be many who will need to restore their records from old archival media, perhaps to get old source code for modification. If these records are stored on magnetic media, they will discover that unless these media have been refreshed ( recopied ) from time to time they slowly lose their magnetization and become more or less unreadable after three or four years or so.

Financial Times, 10/31, Letters to the editor

From Avinash Persaud
Head of Currency Research
J.P. Morgan ( Europe )
60 Victoria Embankment
London EC4Y OJP, UK
Sir, Larry Summers should be congratulated for his enlightened
American view on Europes putative single currency ( American Eyes on
EMU, October 22 ) . However, it would appear that part of this
encouragement for Europes ambitious project is based on an
understatement of the risks it poses to the hegemony of the US dollar.
Mr. Summers claims that the international role of currencies is slow
moving. This is not so. Sterling lost its international reserve status
quickly in the 1930s.
The market adopts one currency as its numeraire, not on the
basis of considered, cautious judgment, but on the basis of lowest
transaction costs. Tradition plays little part in the market for
currencies.

The greater the use of a currency, the lower the transaction costs will
be in using it. This virtuous cycle explains why there is only ever one dominant currency. The problem for the dollar is that the euro will be a big currency. If all European Union countries participate, euolands economy will be 15% larger than the Us and eurolands exports will be 25%
greater ( excluding intra-European trade ) . Just the 11 countries
likely to join Emu in 1999 are a bigger exporter than the US.

Mr. Summers also claims that as long as the US does the right thing in
terms of economic policy, the euros arrival will not affect the dollar.
However, if the dollar loses its reserve status to the euro, this would
trigger portfolio switch out of dollars by private investors and central
banks in the region of $500bn to $1,000bn---of five times the US current
account deficit.

I doubt whether any amount of good economic management would save
the US economy and the dollar from the effects of such a flow.
The Europeans have 'lived' with the dollar reserve currency for 40 years
and--when one reads remarks/thoughts of German central bankers past
and present--it is apparent they will cut themselves loose from the
despised dollar with relief--if not glee. To believe otherwise is to
sign-on to the magnificent PR program now bolstering the $.
One may appreciate the poliitical skill being displayed on the dollars
behalf, while not allowing oneself to believe a word of it.

I posted my last item for those who may take your opinion seriously and discount the megabytes of research the rest of the Kitcoites have done.
If in the end they agree with your "cry of wolf" opinion - well - they can't say they don't know much about the topic. We have warned them - that is all we can do. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him or her drink.

Gold =Grunge Away to get Amused to Death 

It would appear then, that as the day of the Euro approaches those interests favoring the dollar and not wishing a run on the dollar have a vested interest in getting the strength of the dollar as high as possible.

Sapping the dollars strength because of this yen thing must be quite an annoyance.

An analogy I've been using for those bright enough to understand it -
A string of Christmas lights with 10,000 bulbs wired in series - those where if one blows the whole string goes dark. You plug in the string and nothing, nada, darkness abounds - not only in the bulbs but in your spirit as you contemplate the job that lies ahead. Only maybe 1% of those bulbs are bad. You would throw out the whole string if it wasn't nailed down to every corner, roofline, gutter, and window perimeter around your whole house and the trees and shrubs too! It is December 13th and you have 12 days to find all the bad bulbs. You also have other work to do so you can't spend every waking hour trying light bulbs. You could hire some neighbor kids to do it. Let's see - if you put 100 of today's kids on the job - each checking a portion of the string...

As used in these posts, IT=Information Technology. Agree with my cuzzin Grizz, you are entitled to your opinion, but for the sake of your family: DO SOME RESEARCH ----WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG???

The Bear growls! Would like to hear your thoughts on how Gold will do in a Y2K maelstrom.

Just read your posting re CYRUSS, how valid is that report .Is anybody listening .Have they been correct before ???????

anyone have a site for daily coin, and bullion prices?

to experts on japanese culture and society, both agree that because the older population controls society and the savings, the economy will continue down hill.
one was japanese, the other an aussie living in japan for 20 years.

So simple, even the little people can understand.
Wish you would write more. Am sending this to many of my
joke recipients who don't read our posts here. Thanks!

are interested in keeping it relatively strong pending the arrival of the Euro. However, I don't expect the Euro to appear in substantial quantities at the outset as that would be quite inflationary. Rather, I expect them to create Euros gradually via loan and commercial transactions. Nevertheless, the competition of the Euro to the $, when it starts, will divert interest and demand from the $ to the Euro. There are about 380 million people in Europe that will be looking at a competing currency to the $, so relative demand for $s has to decline. Another thought, what if the OPEC countries decided to require some or all payments for their oil in Euros? Wouldn't that have a major impact on the demand for $ relative to Euros? It would seem to me that with the USA printing all of those $ in the last year as shown in the growth of M3 that some of the oil producing nations have to be concerned about the underpinnings of the $. Additionally, with the massive trade deficit that we have that is growing without that much comment on TV, someone is likely to wake up to the fact that we have a serious problem.

G-Nutz: try here for coins http://www.coinuniverse.com/prices/index.html

geoffs: just found that site today. they echo strong sentiment found here and at silicon investor. the Japanese must do something or fail in a spectacular manner. Their number one asset is in U.S. debt. Time will tell.

away to earn a dollar.

RLM re your post this am: Any idea how much your "Fortune 500" company spent on remediation?? IMHO this is one aspect of the Y2k issue that has not been explored enough; I'll bet if we could somehow compile the total cost of becoming Y2k compliant for both private companies and the guvment 'twould be a real shocker!!! Also believe this is another factor that will lead to the "pricking" of the bubble---after all these costs DO affect the bottom line. I have read that companies are using this year's and future years IT budget to work the problem. In my mind this is also a huge factor re all the computer companies and their profits.
One last thought: to all who haven't done the research: WHY ALL THIS MONEY BEING SPENT???

http://cnnfn.com/markets/9806/24/stockswatch/
AT&T goes shopping - S&P Globex up - ASB! ASB!
http://www.goldline.co.uk/
Goldline Gold + Silver bullion & coin prices in USD, Sterling

With the news coming out of Korea and Indonesia of 40% drops in real estate nad 25% unemployment in Indonesia I find it hard to see
inflation coming. Asia has no welfare program to deal with this mess.
Its work ( for less ) or go hungry. It seems to me that deflation will continue until we get a hard jolt against the US$ Then gold will shine. Until then the fact that it is not running hard downhill is the best we can expect. When the change comes I think it will come fast. Without the hard jolt gold may go to $200-

GM

I agree with China, RADIO FREE ASIA SUCKS.

that alerted us to the activities of RFA. If your out there,
keep your head down sister.

I bet the DOW finishes strongly down today.

The modern games of the Monetary Olympics, to be held in the year 2000, in the cities of Hong Kong/Peking....who will win the gold? Mount Olympus' grandstands will be packed with curious gods, there, in spite of the previously known outcome.

The future is a secret. Exceptingly reserved by those deities of the Mount.....what very little we are told! And not that many signs and sounds come from the sky. Think hard.

GM

Durable goods orders down 2.7% -- expected to be down only 0.7%. Asia iimpact has arrived.

i think its an each way bet today.

RLM
You're not Another in disguise are you?
He always referred to me as sharfin. - just joshin.

Welcome to the party.
I think it would be a good, to see all my favorite Kitcoites in one room.
I doubt that we would discuss Y2k
Better things to talk about - GOLD!!!

Tell me, what does a modern IT techno see, in the monetary problems of the world, that draws them here?
I see a disproportionate number of them here and it leads me to wonder - why?

Congratulations to your positively re your companies accomplishments re Y2k.
I truly wish all was in this position.
I have no wish to see my world in turmoil.
Unfortunately this is not so.

Anyway welcome to the fold.
Namaste

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Grizz ( Jims - re "IT" being Y2K? - You want to know? )
Grizzly's & Mtn Bears
Welcome across the divide.
Youse guys got sense before cents.

Tank Girl reported the start-up activities of RFA, Radio Free Asia,
I think just before the Baht was taken out and Aussie transfer
of gold and eventually the whole shebang. Anyhow after US
military manouvres in Australia, it was decided that the
Australian broadcasts to Asia would end. RFA took over
and broadcasts from downtown Washington. Make you own mind up.

i,m starting my own political party "the stuff em all party" cheers.

I'm not particularly a fan of any of the above ( 'cept I get nauseous sometimes from hearing about it ) but the attached document is "intersting." If Bill Gates' crew and the Micrsoft gang can insert such advanced invisible subroutines into programs like Excel ( used by literally MILLIONS of PC owners WORLDWIDE! ) , then other programmers may potentially have inserted more "dangerous" subroutines in popular programs. One can be certain, however, that hackers and/or other jokesters will be playing Y2K games at the appropriate time.

Microsoft Excel users: check out the attached document. Try it and tell me if it works on your version of Excel. What do you think?

If nothing else, it is thought provoking... and amusing....

Your comments are 'better' than plausible, they're probable {:- ) )
We are delighted to hear your wife is home and improving. Difficult days make 'boring, everyday normalacy' look mighty appetizing don't they?

The sea is blue and the sky is blue
Round half the world above it
And the sea's decked out in her old blue dress
With the lace foam frills upon it.

The old blue dress is soft and gay,
The gold sun is her bonnet
A soft breeze stirs the old blue dress,
And the white foam frills upon it.

Most beautiful the sea today
Sweet peace is quiet upon it,
And sun gold light warms golden sands
And all who wander on it.

Most beautiful the sea today
The cool breeze gently blowing
The blue sky arching over all
And the blue dress flowing.

Most beautiful that old blue dress,
With its white laced frill of foam
Most beautiful the warm gold sun
My heart, and my desire is home.

That is very, very good...I really like your concept! Monetary Olympics, huh? Well, you've identified ( to my mind anyway ) the major player; he who has all the ( you'll pardon the expression ) OPTIONS...or the most options. Europa will be grateful and happy just to give birth to a living Euro, no matter how premature and underweight; just so it breaths, that's all they ask. Your concept "Monetary Olympics" would make a great musical extravaganza...Tony Award stuff...get busy! {:- ) )

Did you ever go out and really live it up? Did you realize at the time that live spelled backwards is evil? Or that lived spelled backwards is devil?

I think we should analyse the gold carry trade more in detail. I'm not sure but I think this is not a physical trade, I think it is just paper being traded.
so, let's go through it step by step and you tell me if my suppositions are wrong. Yes?

Step one: the gold is owned and is physically stored in a CB's cellar or in Fort Knox.
Step two: the gold is leased to a commercial bank but stays physically where it is. The commercial bank holds a lease certificate which obviously implies the permission to sell.
Step three: the commercial bank sells a gold certificate, paper. The buyer buys paper. Or: the commercial bank holds the leased gold as hedge against the selling of a future contract.
Step four: Repetition of the above until the gold price goes down on COMEX.
Step five: The futures must be covered eventually. If this leads to a financial problem: who gets hurt?

The CB still has the physical gold in the cellar.

It seems to me, what really happens in the whole game is the creation of money out of thin air in order to bring the gold price down. Legally, the CB doesn't run a risk to lose gold in the whole game because they keep the physical stuff in their cellar. And the lease contract permits them to demand back what they havn't given away anyhow.

What do you think ?

"A Primer on Money", Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, 88th Congress, 2d session, August 5, 1964, p. 75:

" The practical effect of requiring all purchases to be made through the open market is to take money from the taxpayer and give it to the dealers. It forces the Government to pay a 'toll' for borrowing money. There are six 'BANK' dealers:
First National City Bank of New York.
Chemical Corp. Exchange Bank.New York.
Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. New York.
Bankers Trust of New York.
First National Bank of Chicago.
Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago."

Thus the banks which receive a "toll" on all money borrowed by the Government of the United States are the same banks which planned the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. There is ample evidence demonstrating the present preeminence of the same banks which set up the Federal Reserve System in 1914. For instance, Warren Brookes writes on the editorial page of The Washington Post, June 6, 1983:

"Citicorp ( National City Bank and First National Bank of New York, merged in 1955 ) just recorded an 18.6% return on equity, J.P. Morgan 17%, Chemical Bank and Bankers Trust, nearly 16%, an exceptional rate of return"

These are the banks which bought the first issue of Federal Reserve Bank STOCK in 1914, and which owned the controlling interest in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which sets the interest rate and is the bank for all open market operations.



June 24, 1998

EU clears merger of Travelers and Citicorp

BRUSSELS, Belgium ( Reuters ) - The European Commission said Wednesday it had cleared the landmark $70 billion merger of financial giants Travelers Group Inc. and Citicorp.

It said in a statment that, although the deal is the biggest merger in corporate history, it does not create a dominant player in any European market.

The merger was announced in May and immediately filed for regulatory approval in the European Union because the two banks are both active in the 15-nation bloc. It is also being examined in the United States.

On the European side, the commission concluded after a routine one-month inquiry that the banks' European activities were largely complementary.

"Travelers' presence in Europe focuses on securities and derivatives trading and investment banking services, the latter offered by subsidiaries of Salomon Smith Barney Holdings Inc.," the commission noted.

Citicorp, on the other hand, was more involved in commercial banking, it added.

If cleared in the United States, the merger would create the largest corporation in the world in terms of assets and the biggest listed financial company under the Citigroup name.

as to how Sunbeam is negotiating with its bankers ( Morgan Stanley , First Union and Bankamerica ) about obtaining some "waivers" to a $1.7 Billion loan package. Apparently, Sunbeam would be in violation of its loan agreement if the company "reports a loss". The loan was underwritten by the banks with the intention that they would syndicate the debt but because of the recent firing of Dunlap, they have had to put that plan on hold. NOW GET THIS, the loan was ONLY AGREED TO BACK IN MARCH ( Three months ago and it's already coming apart ! ! ) Makes you wonder how many more of these are out there.

I would certainly like to hear a response to Alberich's post about the details of a gold lease. It had always been my understanding that the physical gold is actually delivered and sold.

Asian woes fuel sharp fall in May US durable goods
By Steven Scheer

NEW YORK, June 24 ( Reuters ) - Problems in Asia have started
to significantly hurt the U.S. manufacturing sector, evidenced
by a sharp decline in orders for durable goods in May,
economists said.

The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable
goods fell 2.6 percent in May after a revised 1.6 percent rise
in April ( initially reported as a 2.2 percent gain ) .

The May decline was far worse than the 0.7-percent drop
expected in a Reuters poll consensus forecast, although some
economists had predicted a fall of as much as 2.0 percent.

"We have been waiting for this shoe to drop," said David
Kelly, senior economist at Primark Decision Economics.

The slowdown in durable goods is finally reflecting the
weakness from Asia.

Kelly said "This is getting more in line with the rather
severe slowdown we've been experiencing in inventory growth and
in our trade position."

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

GM

What happens when the buyer from the seller of leased gold says he wants to take physical delivery?

Did you know, that the first nations people do not believe in evil ( live ) or the devil ( lived ) . Their take is, good people do bad things. And that there exists, those people that do things backwards ( evil ) , therefore are Trickster's ( devil ) . Soooooo, so much for the first nations people being a nation of Heathen's ( uncivilized ) eh!

Take Care.

An evil devil ; )

I realize some here have been waiting for a TeddO update....and some could care less. For the latter......bite me. ( I have been too busy with fartin around to tell all...until now ) .

This is verily not gold or metals relaTED.......so ignore if you are offended at the wasted bandwidth.......now.......here goes.

I don't know where to start so I'll start at the beginning and finish at the end and mix it up in between and confuse all of you in the middle somewheres...

First of all he had to leave Willy in Cape Breton....he really was the neighbors dog that TeddO had adopted. I didn't know until now......oh well. He said it was a tough breakup but he is almost over it now. Let's see.....oh, he sold his Kayak ( not to Nick@C>Nick@C ) but to some poor Canuk-Schmuck. He will buy a new one when settled in more. Had a heckova trip through the border down the coast with his psycho buddy. Didn't cause too much trouble with the authorities....and did not get strip searched as was first thought. Although he did mention something about wanting it to happen as he was describing a cute nubile young mountie thang he 'ran' into.....nuther story........ As the letter from Aurator said he busied himself with clearing ( chainsawing ) a swath of trees to improve his view of the ocean only to later find out that he broke the local laws doing so. He claimed total ignorance and gave 'em a stoooopid TeddO look and they left him alone ( easy for Ted to do ) ....now he has the best view on the whole island. He is using a trailer he borrowed from the town Mayor. It is 30yr old 15x5 broken down tin-can with NO running water NO fridge NO can ( growler pit ) NO electricity and NO phone. It took until NOW to get them to run a telephone pole to his property. The guy ( must have been a former Cape Bretoner...in Ted's words ) took two weeks to come out to finish the job finally giving Ted communication with the world. He drilled a hole through the trailer to bring the line in. He'll tell the Mayor someday. Oh yeah.....I guess the pipes broke on the rust bucket and then he had NO running water. He has to piss and dooky in the woods with all the lions&tigers&bears. He is not happy 'bout it but such is life. He goes into town every Saturday night to get supplies.....ice, rum, ( a girly mag.....the wife is visiting mom in Florida 'till house is compleTED ) , meet up with his ONLY buddy ( so far ) , an 83yr old Swan's Island native........he drinks rum with him and shares old war stories......well, the old man shares the stories, Ted just drinks. And he takes his weekly shower. Then during the week it's back to breaking his back building his dream house.......oh yeah....he also meditates trying ( in Ted's words ) trying to get his sh!t together. He says he's getting suicidal so he does Thai-Chi ( sp? ) with the birds and racoons........let's see.....oh yeah, he started hios Tomato garden ;- ) because he was getting very close to missing planting season. He is also very friendly with the Lobster fisherman who chug-a-lug by his house regularly........they think he's nuts......he thinks. His foundation is completed and now is starting on the framing. ( this is getting loosely rambled now so bear with ) .........hmmmmmmmm.........yes, he is early to bed ( no lights ) and early to rise ( frigging too cold to sleep ) and is at prime fighting weight......165 lb's @ 6'1" or something like that. He says his hands are like ground meat and he is built like Paul Bunyan ( sp ) ......... ( he was a storybook character of GREAT size and he chopped down trees and stuff ) . what else.......hmmmmmmm....

He kept saying he has a GREAT view ( best on the island ) , better than the Goodyears' place ( his neighbors ) and he can't wait until the jacuzzi ( spa ) is built so he can soak and bathe at night........SO.....I can't remember much more and my cat ate the copious notes I took. Sorry to StudioR for the delay....... I wrote this last Sunday only to have my puta lock up and ruin my first and BEST rendition of the conversation.....I got angry and had to go golfing again and when I came back the puta had not given anything back to me......didn't think it would but ya never know, eh?

To various people:

Donald - did ya get the postcard he sent?? He said thanks for the gold propoganda but he would much rather have the physical ( gold ) . Send it when you get a chance ;- ) . He says thanks much for the letters. He appreciates them.

StudioR - TeddO said to sell the ranch and the wells and move out to the good life at Swan's Island...........the OTHER side though.....he doesn't want to get too buddy-buddy with anyone ( he likens himself to Kasynski ( sp ) right now ) ......x-ray all letters you may receive ;- )

John Disney - He told me to tell you to go out and buy some shares of ABX........whoof-whoof!

Aurator - mate...... send more ginseng......he needs more lead for his pencil.....and could ya send some blotter too for his Sat. nights with the old war hero?? btw.....check mail soon.....

Nick@C - start a fund campaign. Call it: TeddO's Kool Kayak Kampaign. He needs all the help he can get. He is overbudget and will have to work a night shift at some convenience store to make up the difference.....he sold ALL his drips.................NOT! ;- )

HepRatCat - he misses you the most.....where are you anyway??

Cherokee - do you still have a seat for him on the dotsffmhttplmnopqrst smoke signal moblie?? He still has his Eagle feather........

Sharefin - he says he is getting his house puta 'Why Two Kays' compliant.......he doesn't want his automated drip systam to fail and have his crop die.....this would be disasterous.

Tort - where the hell are you anyway??

Tol#1 - he drinks a big gulptoya every Sat night.......rum though.

THAT IS ALL ( i can remember....we had cocktails together......and puffed fine tobacco ) .............one more thing he said to post.......

GO GOLD!

away.....until the next call



and John Disney. You are the main bottom I see.

Ok. How about if I take the other side and predict DOW will end UP today?

When I 'backed up' to correct it all disappeared and I didn't want my second 'piece' to run amock in cyber space..........go gold ( ! )
away...to watch these commods do things........hmmmmm.


Oil will be up today. You are right about weak market today.

The attached text file was too long and off-topic to post, so I "attached" it. Don't want to clutter the Kitco band width. E-mail me if you can't get it to work. Will try to describe the program embedded in Excel.

Strad, did you ever get my last e-mail? Talk to me...

gunrunnr@nwfl.net

Sildeline money is jumping the gun.

Whatever happened to A Goose and his listing of the registered and eligibile gold stocks at COMEX. I followed all his posts ( except the one where he must have said bye-bye! ) .

Forgive me if others have asked the same thing and I missed it.

Thanks, Fergie

June 24, 1998

Road accidents one of largest killers in the world says report

NEW DELHI ( AP ) -- A half-million people die each year in traffic accidents, most of them in developing countries where driver training is lax and road conditions are poor, the Red Cross said today.

Another 15 million are injured, according to the World Disaster Report issued annually by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

The report was released in New Delhi, where traffic accidents claim thousands of lives every year.

Accidents, it said, cost developing countries the equivalent of $78 billion Cdn annually.

"Traffic accidents already cost the ( developing world ) almost as much as all the aid they receive," said federation president Astrid Heiberg.

In Ethiopia, traffic fatalities are 100 times higher than in Japan and Australia. The gap reflects the difference in health facilities and traffic conditions, the report said.

Roads in developing countries are cluttered with pedestrians, bicycles and animals. Developing countries also lag behind the developed world in road safety campaigns, driver training and seat belt laws, it said.

Nepal, Bangladesh, China, Swaziland and India follow Ethiopia as countries with the largest number of accidents.

The United States and Mexico did not figure into the ranked list, although the report put the U.S. fatality rate at 15.5 Americans per 100,000 and Mexico's at 5.7 per 100,000.

How's it hangin'? Long time, eh? Did you get into that grain bounce? Any good currency trades lately? Happy trading Bro.
away....to wish other 'oldtimers' would post again


Wednesday June 24, 10:33 am Eastern Time

Decisivie action needed on Japan economy- Summers

WASHINGTON, June 24 ( Reuters ) - Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers on Wednesday welcomed
Japan's stimulus package but said it must do more to revive its stagnating economy.

``While The passage last week of a significant stimulus package is a welcome step we remain very concerned
about Japan's economic and financial situation,'' he told a Senate committee hearing on the Asia crisis.

``It is critical that Japan must now act decisively to resolve difficulties in its banking system, to make clear its
readiness to carry out further fiscal stimulus if needed to achieve its goal of domestic demand led growth,'' he said.

Evaluating the impact of Japan's economic crisis, Summers said: ``The situation in Japan is a source of very
considerable concern. Growth has turned negative, The banking is increasingly stressed.''

HighRise

Alberich:

Your questions and comments on the gold carry trade merit serious thought by all. I would also be interested in hearing what ANOTHER would say on the subject. You can submit the question to him at:

www.USAGold.com

through their e-mail link to Michael Kosares.

Thank you for raising it.

No wonder the market is down, Ted sold his kayak. I remember that for a while whenever Ted would go for a walk on the beach or kayaking gold would go up. Ted, get that house built so you can walk on the beach and kayak again: ) Its for the good of everybody at Kitco. We're depending on you: )

Is there a URL where one can find the short interest on a
specific stock?

6Pak - Hope Clintoris doesn't read that article - he'll try to BAN cars, trucks, etc. because they're "dangerous."

EB - Got creamed a few of months back and laid off awhile. Trying to get back into it. Missed the grain movement. Yen, plat, etc. gotta go back up some day, reckon? Send me your e-mail address. Tomato plants... indeed ; )

The way you present the GOLD lease scheme would suggest that all GOLD being purchased out of mine and "carry trade" short selling is for future delivery.
It is not the case
Some GOLD consuming business hedge themselves forward to cover possible hike in POG but there is still a shortage in GOLD consumption versus mine physical production and CB net selling activity
The shortage is made up by actual deliveries from CB lending activities.
However , these CBs only take as counterparts well established bullion banks which in turn take the credit risk on mines and hedge funds.
There is actual delivery but to which extent , I can't tell.What I can add is that if and when the POG goes up , some of these bullion banks will experience defaults in delivery from their counterpart at the lease expiry
THEN THE FUN BEGINS

They added to the liquidity again - PRINT!

HighhRise

this barbarian...good to hear TED is alive and getting a handle on his brave new world...or vice versa...either way it is good to know that his oxygen sockets are still running strong...tell him he has become a legend on the Island that is Long...and that when anyone at Cuervo Central complains they are thrashed thoroughly and left in the field to lick their wounds listening to their detractors say "think of TED you nouveau riche dipstick." We tend to be brutal on complainers within the walls of the compound... it strengthens the breed don't ya know...

The residents are assembled within the walls and we raise our flagons of Grand Reserva...glug...glug...GULP...in his HONOR...Namaste' to ya TED...

I keep wondering to myself, why worry? So what if there's a 65% probabalility of greater or lesser disturbance in tightly woven fabric of effete urban culture, a 30% chance of serious shortages and a 5% chance of strarvation, riots and civil unrest?

Lets put it all in perspective. We each have a 1% chance of dying, along with all of our friends and all of our blood relations closer than a cockroach due to unanticipated cosmic events. Plus if we're lucky, a good chance to see a really great movie this spring. http://www.deep-impact.com/

eblm@mci2000.com
gotta go grind now...
away...to it


You can get NASDAQ monthly short interest & days to cover off:

http://beta.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes.stm

Enter the symbol you want, hit the infoquotes button, then the fundamentals button, then the short interest button.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000271261842766&rtmo=0Kir2b0q&atmo=kkkkkkku&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/98/6/24/wchi24.html&pg=/et/98/6/24/wchi24.html

I think its a mixed bag, but think you are right on most of what goes out on lease. The 'sales' are probably transfers between CB's in exchange for other 'forgeign' reserves like US$ Bonds and Bill.

Someone posted/commented that most of the leasing was to mines. They collatoralize it with in ground reserves. But at 1% lease rate I can not see how this rate reflects the high risk of the lease if it was done as a physical transfer. The risk would be, as you surmise, that physical metal might not be returned to the CB. That's a fairly high risk in that the CB ( most conservative of institutions ) is dealing with a mine ( certainly a venue for past 'mismanagement' ) .

I've been thinking about this paper gold market recently as well. It seems to me that something much more is going on than meets the eye. For instance, why is it the CB's in Europe ( and Australia ) are hidebound and determined to keep POG low. It is obvious they intend to do this. Is someone accumulating the physical???

This seems the most logical conclusion. "You've got to drive the price down to buy 'em. And drive the price up to sell 'em." Seems the maxim to this game. I have bought the physical at these obviously pitiful price levels.

The Euro may be somewhat involved here. But there seems to be more. This is an internationally coordinated effort involving many players. Smells fishy.

June 24, 1998

Orders for U.S. durable goods fall

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods expected to last three or more years dropped 2.6 per cent in May, the largest decline in five months.

The decrease in durable-goods orders to a seasonally adjusted $184.3 billion US followed gains of 1.6 per cent in April and 0.3 per cent in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was the sharpest fall since a 5.3 per cent drop in December.

Orders in May fell in two volatile categories, which had increased sharply the month before: civilian aircraft and military goods.

But declines were broad-based, if smaller, in other sectors and likely reflected diminished demand from economically troubled Asia.

Many thanks, I appreciate your response.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980623/V000494-062398-idx.html

In this day of information and dis-information, sometimes it seems difficult to find the truth. Certainly that's easy to see with gold, silver, and the DOW bull. Somehow I feel this is the case with the Y2K bug as well.

I've seen Gary North's info, and have read other information on this newsgroup as well as from other sources indicating a SERIOUS and potentially life-style changing problem on the horizon. I've also read information indicating that the seriousness of the problem is very over-stated.

Meanwhile, back at the bank, a recent credit card has an expiration during the year "00" and they sent me a notice stating that while SOME bank systems might not yet be 2000 compliant, their computer systems were already Y2K compliant. A bank employee told me that any merchant whose bank was not yet compliant would reject my card as expired, and I was given an 800 number. They also told me that Y2K compliant systems would read the card with no problem.

In using the new card, I've noticed about a 50/50 ratio of acceptance verses rejects. It's interesting to note that most of the merchants who reject the card the first time through dial a number manually and run it through WITHOUT ever telling me that they have a problem.

I have a merchant VISA account, and have run through a number of VISA and MasterCards with 00 expirations...and WITHOUT a problem. This leads me to believe that my own bank is truthful when they say that they are Y2K compliant.

SO...is the problem overstated? Will certain companies and government systems that are not yet compliant be the only ones with glitches, that will be fixed after 1/1/2000? Are there any computer programmers on this newsgroup who are thoroughly familiar with the Y2K bug who can provide some CREDIBLE and objective insight to us computer laypeople?

--Skip

http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_11hrg/110497/witness/yardeni.htm

If it's not too late, I'll take your bet and say it closes down.

It's shocking that Asia inventories of US goods went down so much in May, given that the yen devaluation had created huge incentives for Asia importers of US goods to stock up at low US$ prices. If the yen is perceived to stablize, this effect will vanish overnight, revealing the true extent of weakness in Asia demand. Most US corp. Q2 ends in a few days. Not much time left to figure out where you're going to end up when the books close Tuesday. The landscape's changing fast, so sales managers using the same trend analysis they've been counting on in the past as a basis for forecasts will be caught off guard. My guess is that sales managers all over the US are redoing their management forecasts right now and making decisions on whether to announce revised earnings. I expect a few unschdeduled announcements that will surprise the market.
-EJ

I'll be printing ALL howdy-doodies to TeddO and sending them off. If Ya'll wanna say a little something do so pretty soon. He will enjoy them. It will make him work faster so he can get back online and 'make' gold go higher.......uh huh. Thanks guys/gals.
away... ( $ )


http://www.worldnetdaily.com/hackworth/980624.comdh.html

his trailer ?

No, it's not too late. Ok, all bets are in. Watch what happens next.

Promise?
-EJ

Look at that. It's starting to rise. Bit by bit, inch by inch.

857 days to go.

Wouldja look at that, now only ten points down....

Brother John, W&C - Wine and Cheese.
Aurator and TYoung, my brothers, are correct.

Advantage of W&C in comparison with V&P - you can
have it before meal and after meal, V&P - only
before meal...after meal it will not go easy...

Hmmm, I smell a rat.

HenryD

Where, exactly, IS Ted on this globe? I knew he had left Cape Breton some time ago, but never knew where he was moving to. I talked to him only once or twice, but he sounds like a real storybook character. How long before he has a computer up and running?

on this trip...it won't be soon enough to get this slob out of the White House...he is a cheap two bit street urchin...

Anyway my friend...I hope all is well...A Giant Island that is Long Gulp to YA!!!

BBL

I think I know what's going to be said about Taiwan, But I would like to get your odds on his cutting them off-straight out or by implication. Many thanx, Charlie

I can't think of any one creature I despise more than Klinton. My wife shares this as do her parents, lifelong Demos that regret their BC vote in '92. I have tried to be patient but his reign is wearing a bit thin as his power grab and disregard for the law go unchecked by the media, Demos and Repos.
My long shot hunch is that he will help to bring down the US$ by his broadening scandals, ultimatly spending his life in total disgrace.
Will it happen? Of course it will, we just have to be patient. arrgghh

http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0624/f_ap_0624_15.sml

Means it creeps up, ever so tentatively, without spirit or conviction. All it takes to send it back down again is... one of these! Ahhhem. I said, one of theeeeese!

Well, looks like I'm having technical difficulties with my news bomb generator.

Excuse me. I'll be back in a coupla hours.

-EJ

SharEfin Sorry for the typo.

There hasn't been any discussion at my management level of addressing the vendor/customer problem. Believe we just don't want to be liable for any Y2K issues to the outside world.

Not sure of the total expenditure for Y2K. But it has to be spent, or else we could be liable.

My economic/financial reasons are the same as has already been mentioned here many times.

12:28 NASDAQ 100 SURPASSES ALL TIME HIGH, GAINS 15 OR 1.2% TO 1317!!!
Can the DOW be far behind?

Plus six and rising....

via the EBullent one:

Well, you made it back and they only took you to the cleaners a wee lil bit, eh? Back to work you dog. Only take enough time to rest. Or else you will screw things up royally. Its not worth it to exhaust yourself.

EB said 'framing'. I thought you were putting up a timber frame. No? And you need to send me, via EB, your directions from the dock so I can bring my hammer up to 'help'. I think you would pay me well to NOT help!!!

DOW 10,000 DOoooAH to ya. Haven't seen it yet and we won't because of Y2K silliness. Keep up the good work.

Nasty-may, or whatever they say. Awa-----y.

Kitco Rules.
Go GOLD!
Get ready for the Y2K earthquake. It'll be a killer.

Allen ( USA )

WASHINGTON, June 24 ( Reuters ) - Deputy Treasury Secretary
Lawrence Summers said on Wednesday that Asia's economic crisis
and the problems in world emerging markets could have a
profound impact on the U.S. economy.

"These problems in emerging markets around the world are...
profoundly consequential for Americans, for our jobs and our
exports, for our savings which are invested in world markets
and on our security," he told a Senate committee hearing on the
Asia crisis.

( ( Washington newsroom 202 898 8329,
washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com ) )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/moody_s_ra_1.html

Maybe us goldbugs are either the real individual thinkers with a intuitive feel of things to come, or we just view the world through glasses that always "half empty"??

SWC back up to 27

Thai farmers demand debt relief
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_119000/119137.stm

Iraq will take action if U.N. sanctions not lifted
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0624/i_ap_0624_43.sml

Never heard back from you after I replied to your message. Was beginning to wonder what was up. Check your box. Just sent a letter stating same. Talk soon.

The new York goblin who likes to wait till the London market closes and
then stomp on gold prices has returned....

Plus forty two and accelerating.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/markets_pr_2.html

In my 08:25 I overlooked how many people are needed to change 10,000 light bulbs - the necessity of hiring a committee to issue requests for proposals, consultants to study the problem, engineers to design solutions, more consultants to get all the various permits, procurement departments to requisition the forms to requisition the bulbs, electrical inspectors to make sure the work meets code, environmental compliance officers, equipment operators for the boom lifts, safety officer, OSHA inspectors, an on-site office with secretaries for all the above officers, managers, bookkeeper, accountant, and payroll officer; food vendors ( who are properly permitted & inspected ) , a lunchroom, a janitor, and last but not least - provider of porta potties for the work crews.

Did I forget anybody?

Your posts have elicted a highly significant point of data re Lease rates and forward rates. This is not my forte. Could you'll coordinate this with the POG and maybe there is a way to anticipate chages in the POG. The parameters that these rates have vs POG apparently are a controlling factor for POG. If you would prefer, my email is ( cdevoto@abts.net ) . Thank you very much for this help, Charlie

Found an interesting series of articles here, from the guy who offered an alternative to the IMF for Indonesia ( Suharto didn't take his advice ) . Check this guy out. If you have time for only one, try February 9.

http://www.forbes.com/asp/redir.asp?/forbes/by/shankexx.htm

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980522.btl.manchurian.pres.html

in the stock market will have gold running right up along with it. Any thoughts on when this effect might kick in?

HB

This machine cut off my heading again!

Good morning to the half-empty glass crowd.

BBML

Skip, there is not going to be a definitive report that will spell out the 'objective' numbers and impact. First, nobody has done an assessment of the entire world. Second, those who have done significant assessment in their company are not talking alot. We have some leaks through people like the CIO of GM who have said the 'c' word: catastrophy. The CSIS conference transcript ( I'll post the URL in a bit ) is an eye opener. There are things said and things implied.

Alan Simpson, Int'l telecom expert:

"We can tell you the model numbers on the switchers that won't work in the telecommunications network. We can tell you where they are, and at the moment we know exactly the percentage of the telecom network that will fail. We do not scream and shout this out because we do not want the world to know this."

Time to use all that critical thinking ability that we have been endowed with. Time to connect the dots for ourselves and plan our response. But certainly not time to wait for someone to tell us there is a problem which they can not fix for us, because they will never say this until it is to late for you to do anything to prepare.

Think about insurance. You pay for it and seldom, if ever, use it. You have different insurances for different risks. You have car insurance, home owners, life and casualty, etc. In a year you probably spend US$1,000's directly and indirectly on insurance to protect your hide. Well, think of Y2K preparation as insurance. If there is 1 chance in 10 that your income might be affected, 1 chance in 50 that your bank might be affected or 1 chance in 200 that your world might be trashed, then you pay up. You are in charge here and now, but maybe not later.

Our hope is that Mr. Goose has not found his way into to hot a situation. Certainly A. cooked Goose offers us no comfort or cheer.

Good afternoon to the half-full glass crowd.

HighRise

The Y2K Crisis: A global Ticking Time Bomb?

Transcript @

hhtp://www.csis.org/html/y2ktran.html

Just the opinions of a few experts and powerful people that have alot more insider information than to which you or I will ever have a access.

BTW, I don't understand why Gary North's site gets dumped on. He publishs a vast number of congressional testimony, mainstream and trade press articles which have nothing to do with him as an author, etc. His commentary is somewhat sour, but he does pry the lid open more often than he shuts it.

It has not been his commentary which has persuaded me to my present conviction. He, among others, has gathered the dots. Each of us has the opportunity to put them together. Due diligence. Personal responsibility.

Avoid the rush.

Fifty seven, think it'll make a hundred?

@14.45. was $11.25 just a few days ago. 28% increase in less than a week. Why have we not heard from you commodity cowboys about the killings you have made here???

BBL

time.

Expert: Strong La Nina forming rapidly


EAST LANSING, Mich., June 23 ( UPI ) -- A dramatic shift in Pacific
Ocean temperatures is alerting climatologists to what could be a severe
La Nina -- the opposite of El Nino -- and the possibility of U.S. drought
this summer.
Michigan State University climatologist Jeff Andresen ( an-DRAY-sehn )
says today the La Nina appears to be forming rapidly as ocean water
temperatures plummet.
The last big La Nina was blamed for the Midwest drought of 1987-88.
The phenomenon is also linked to colder-than-normal winters in North
America.
Andresen tells United Press International ``many climatologists were
caught off guard'' in the past month as a year-long El Nino phnomenon
of warm Pacific waters ended and La Nina emerged. He says, ``This is a
pretty significant cooling episode.''
Andresen says data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration shows a cooling of Equatorial Pacific waters by 10
degrees Fahrenheit between mid-May and this week, from 5 degrees above
normal to 5 degrees below normal. During El Nino the ocean was 10
degrees above normal.
The speed of the water-temperature shift is surprising experts.
Andresen says, ``It's unusual to see things change that quickly.''

barbarian has to do". From our very own tolly at 00.55.

( This really got my attention when I saw it; just had to make it QOD ) .

Thank you for an excellent response to my posting.

The POG will start rising this winter and spring as waiting-in-the-wings goldbugs start buying and current goldbugs buy more. The new gold investors will be bidding against each other as they try to get out of paper before it reaches 451F. Total rise by next northern fall - $50 to $100 depending on media hype and how many early Y2K failures happen. Next winter will be mixed with early hoarding driving the price up another $100 before the new year turnover and later a retreat as Central Banks sell off their reserves to pay for the depression, unemployment, civil emergencies, military emergencies, etc. etc. By the spring of 2000 I see Gold back below $300 and perhaps as low as $200 - if the CBs liquidate. Investors who are still able will snap it up at these low prices.
Nowhere and nowhen do I see Gold returning to a role of monetary standard or minted for common circulation. The vast majority of physical Gold will continue to be held or traded among a small tight group of CBs and large ( Buffet-class ) investors - the Gold Club. Goldbugs such as the more well-heeled Kitcoites will be relegated ( as they are now ) to scraps from the sharks feeding. Gold will not ( ever again? ) be free enough of manipulation by politicians and large traders to see itself minted even as $50 or $100 coins. The Gold Club will keep the price fixed within a fairly tight range - just as gas prices in a small town. Occassionally a price war will break out until the renegades are brought back into line. The Big Players in the club will always have enough clout to persuade any renegades to play the game by their established rules.
SILVER on the other hand - may have potential to blast through the roof if it can make it back into circulation as a commoners coin. Though it too runs a major risk of being merely a pawn in a game played by political and financial heavyweights.
I do not see the really big players being brought down significantly by Y2K. They have too many political connections and financial clout to permit themselves to be caught. Their nations may burn but they will not.

Ok. Ya got to give me an hour or so to get this DOW thing sorted out.

My pals in Japan aren't helping me much, tho.

" ( Dollar/yen is ) going up anyway. The fact that we went
through 140 overnight gives a green light to take this thing
up over 145," said Chris Melendez, vice president at Sanwa
BankCalifornia.

How am I going to get the DOW down with the dollar rising? Well... well... I haven't figured that out yet. But I will! Just watch!

-EJ

I still hope that things won't get as crazy as we fear. I do not relish the thought of personal bankruptcy and worse-both for me and many others.

XAU about 6 away from 52wk low

I concur. It sickens me to see such a vile creature in the oval office. I'm not sure the taint OR the stench can ever be removed. Viva gold and silver.

About a week ago, I listed my interpretation of bull/bear
expectations, based on 'COT' Commitment of Traders,
in particular - the "Commercials" net-long patterns over time, vs prices, of almost all commodities.
In that lisiting, my c-oil interpretation was: 'very bullish'
...
the COT & price pattern relationships, are always a few - or
several - weeks old; so there is almost always plenty of time
to "see" a commodity's reversal pattern - bear to bull, or conversely, bull to bear....in advance.

This c-oil reversal rally, is similar to others, of recent/current markets: cotton, soymeal, T-Notes.

The way I read the 'tea-leaves' is this:
when over weeks/months, the commodity price continues to zig & zag to lower & lower prices ( -takee cotton, or oil, for examples ) .....and at the same/corresponding times -weeks/months - the net-long/buying bythe 'Commmercials'/COT are also simultaneously declining.....
this is one of the most reliable technical, chart patterns that signals a bull-move/foundation/reversal....is very likely -
'in the making'.
Just my 2-cents worth opinion; now, Allen, go make your "killing".

who are these bigger than god players you refer to? ...

there is no person big enough to ward of cold, starving hundreds of millions, none that grow enough grain that I know of.

you have no concept of what happens when billions lose food, and warmth.

is going to be long-lasting," he ( Breimyer ) said. "In that context we said ( to the Fed ) we did not think they should raise rates."

Breimyer, who is chief economist at State Street Bank and Trust Co., in Boston, said the risks of raising rates were too great at a time when Asia's economic crisis has deepened and Japan, in particular, was mired in recession.

Gollum: Well? Am I slowing it down at all?
-EJ

Well, you could take the bet in the other direction next time. I bet we could get it too drop like a rock.

how could any of us have any "concept" of this....?
( unless we're _____________________ ( -fill in the blank )

It is just too much:
First, they use the "Titanic" theme-song/sound-track, for background music......
( how truely appropriate ) ...
and then, they say profoundly revealing, insanely
ludicrous things, like:
"Will you ever buy options on a rock-star?" -- !!!!?!!!!

I suppose the most insane, ludicrous part of the whole ad, is what is missing: 'a likely answer'::

"why, yes, my wife & I converted our 401-k plan,
into long-term call options/leaps, 50% on 'The Beatles-Revival'
and 50% on the re-newed, 'Spice-Girls'.

( ( And so, the 'Titanic' continues to take on ( frigid ) water;
but: "never mind, all is fine, not to worry, go back to bed." ) ) !

The Boston guy burns me up. The Fed gets paid to prevent inflation. Period. What has Asia got to do with it? Everyone thinks its ok to play political and social games with the money supply. You can't trust the creeps.

Breimyer's statement is kinda bullish for the short sighted TV kids. They
like the part about the rates not going up.

Who set up this system of fixing prices in London? I cannot imagine a more archaic system. If the big players have indeed infiltrated the price fixing mechanism then the price fixers make the market, not reflect it. Do they discuss supply/demand? Do they ponder Australias comment about golds place in the modern central bank reserves?

Or do they decide on a gut feeling?

With all the technology and information flows that we have it seems out of place.

You are buying your gold at a price someone says you should, not the price reflected in the three week waiting period to buy coins from a dealer.

"It's like they are giving it away!"

Donald, do you have a copy of their ( -the Fed's ) job-description?
If so please be so kind as to publish it aat kitco, and if possible, e-mail me a copy to, at essene@k-online.com...
or at goldfever@k-online.com

Thanks, sincerely,
David

Wednesday June 24, 12:44 pm Eastern Time
Company Press Release

Royal Oak Closes Senior Secured Financing

KIRKLAND, WASHINGTON-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --June 24, 1998-- Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( AMEX:RYO - news; TSE:RYO. - news; AMEX:RYO - news ) Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( TSE and AMEX: RYO - news ) announced today that it has closed the previously announced US$120 million financing in the form of Senior Secured Notes arranged by Trilon Financial Corporation of Toronto.

Funds will be dispersed to the majority of the Company's trade creditors immediately.

Royal Oak commenced production on the 'A' line of the Kemess mill on May 19 and started feeding ore to the 'B' line on June 14, a few days ahead of schedule. Commissioning and operations are proceeding as planned and concentrate is being shipped from site.

Royal Oak plans to hold a conference call on Wednesday, July 8, 1998 at 2:30 p.m. Toronto time ( 11:30 a.m. Pacific time ) to present an update on the status of operations at Kemess. Analysts, investors and the media are invited to call ( 416 ) 620-8863 ( quoting reservation No. 933641 ) approximately five minutes beforehand. A replay of the conference call will be available one hour after the call ends and can be accessed by dialing ( 416 ) 626-4100 ( using reservation No. 933641 ) until midnight Friday, July 10, 1998.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:

Royal Oak Mines Inc.
Mr. J. Graham Eacott, 425/ 822-8992
425/ 822-3552 ( FAX )
Website: http://www.royal-oak-mines.com
or
David Williamson Associates Limited
Mr. David Williamson, 011/44-171-628-3989
011/44-171-920-0563 ( FAX )

Sounds like some sort of subliminal message there. Maybe it appeals to the live fast die young crowd. I get this impression of the band playing and people cavorting around in a drunken orgy while below decks the holds are filling with ice water.

Now really, one need not be so hard on the chaps in London; afterall, their empire, once upon a time, ruled the waves....now all the have to wave ... are the little flags - up or/& down...when they sit around their table, and fix the price of gold, a couple times a day.

But not to worry,
even the old, crusty, oxidizing London gold fixers,
cannot hold back the tide & flood of passion for freedom, that rising...out of the roots of:

the hungry & embittered in se Asia,

the mis-governed peoples & enslaved peasants of Russia,

the teeming hordes of increasingly potent
Islamic fundamentalists,

the educated, informed & committed students of history,
servants of liberty, and lights of reason, ...in the 'West'.
and

"Sir, let me emphasize that the ingenuity and experience of the best marine engineers in the British Empire have assured that this can never happen. The Titanic is unsinkable. She is the greatest marine vessel ever created. Let that lingering doubt perish as you board this most excellent creation of men's hands."

And with that he extended his hand to shake mine. He was convinced, and he convinced me as well. We were all convinced that this ship was as firm in its foundation as the very earth we were leaving. Had we only known what awaited on that cold, bitter night.

"A---ll abo----ard!!!"

Anyone know how one finds out the current hedge positions of the various producers?

yes, and it really isn't even 'subliminal'....

Thanks for your appraisal.

If you mean 'COT' data/info charts:

you might try CTS - Commodity Trend Service ( dearborn.com ) , FL;
and/or the people they get their COT data from:
Pinnacle Data Corp., NY.

That will be $10,000.00 please, ( -your consultant fee/bill ) .

whoevers got the gold makes the rules. It's real simple, remove the competition, control the market. Everyone might do well to remember this when you buy at Walmart, Home Depot, any giant mega corporation that does nothing but destroy your local merchant. What do you think is gonna happen when there is no competition, prices will rise, but I am sorry to say, you might not like the results. Have a nice day!

Just keep buying those tech shares, and internet stocks...
... like aol & amazon.com
....
all-aboard

is being set

MissingLink, of course you are right. There is no public arena. It is all very private dictation. COMEX is a joke. The whole apparatus is governed by a paper market that is many times the size of the actual bullion that is sold on a yearly basis. When the paper market dies then we will see the real market. Until then the game goes on.

In one way this is good for those who wish to accumulate the physical. We have that window of opportunity which is being created for the big players. They have made a way to secure physical gold at ridiculously low prices just before the paper money system self destructs. The great powers ( bullion banks ) play this game for their own benefit. After centuries of watching the destruction of paper currencies they know the pattern which plays itself out. They know the time that they have. And they know that gold will always pass through the fire into another economy or nation or social order. They know ...

http://www.mises.org/

up 2.12 yen to 141.25...no wonder pm's are sick...

Allen ( USA ) ..great URL on y2k...CSIS...This is the kind of stuff you can "talk" about..and not be considered a nut!! A good read...Thanx

Hamas to marry the PLO.....another conflagration, in the making
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_119000/119524.stm

Analysis: Computer experts see big problems at turn of millennium

By Christopher Ruddy
FOR THE TRIBUNE-REVIEW

This writer's recent report about the Y2K problem elicited much response via e-mail.

The central problem is computer software - programs - that allow only two digits for the year in a date. That works for years up to "99," but many systems are expected to fail because they won't be able to deal with year "00."

A congresswoman recently stated that fixing the year 2000 computer problem was like peeling an onion. There's always another layer to deal with.

AN ILLUSTRATION

One computer expert - a man who helped set up computer systems at the U.S. nuclear war command center in Cheyenne Mountain, Colo. - illustrated the complexity in the following e-mail message:

"Regarding source vs. object code: When all of these computer programs were written back in the late '50s and '60s ( for mainframe computers, many still used today ) , there were only two programming languages that were widely used then: FORTRAN for scientific programming and COBOL for business programming.

"When a programmer writes his or her program they write it in source code. For FORTRAN and COBOL it is sort of an English language syntax. An example: `MOVE A TO B.'

"When this source code language gets fed into the computer, it is "compiled," and the compilation process converts the source code to "machine language" or "object code." Object code is nothing but zeros and ones ... the only characters that a computer can recognize.

"How does all of the above relate to Y2K? If a programmer wants to make changes or corrections to his or her program, the programmer needs a printout of the source code; no human could possibly read all of those ones and zeros of the object code and make head nor tails of anything. It would be page after page of numbers.

"The problem is that for thousands of programs that were written so long ago, the source code listings have been lost forever. So this is another major problem in resolving the Y2K issue: how can you possibly look at all of those numbers and find the specific field for the date?

"The answer: you cannot!"

Also, readers pointed to another valuable World Wide Web page on the Year 2000 problem hosted by the investment service Westergaard. The site ( www.Y2Ktimebomb.com ) offers valuable expert opinion.

One of the regular columnists on this "webzine" is Victor Porlier, who heads the New York-based Center for Civic Renewal. Porlier has been monitoring the activities of various state and local governments in dealing with the computer problem. He is not optimistic.

Asked on a scale of 1 to 10 ( 1 being a minor problem; 10 signifying a doomsday scenario ) how he assesses Y2K ramifications, Porlier responded recently that the "hard data" right now indicate it could be a 7, which he said would involve regional electric blackouts and serious "systemic failures and bankruptcies .... and central-level social disorder" in the large metropolitan cities.

NEW JERSEY CITED

In a column titled "Digital States and Association," Porlier lauded the state of New Jersey for its handling of Y2K. He also wrote of a conference he attended this month in New Jersey, and summarized the views of some of the participants.

Irene Dec, vice president of Year 2000 programs at Prudential Insurance, was the keynote speaker. She described the Year 2000 problem as the "largest project information technology has ever faced."

Dec said she believes there "will not be sufficient resources to handle the Year 2000 computer implications."

Most disturbing were comments made by John Scott, head of IBM's Global Services. According to Porlier, Scott told conferees he wonders "if we are not already too late in view of the fact that less than 20 percent of software has been converted."

Scott said there is only a "fair shot" that mission-critical computer systems will be fixed in time. Despite the massive amount of resources that will be devoted to Y2K as it approaches, Scott likened the challenge to trying to drive across the United States in less time than is physically possible. It takes forty hours to drive from New York to Los Angeles; hiring 40 drivers does not speed up the process.

 Usually when a big-name journalist gets sued, it makes national headlines. That didn't happen when Mike Wallace, the veteran CBS "60 Minutes" correspondent, was sued by a top official of the U.S. Customs Service.

Last month, Rudy Camacho, head of Customs operations in San Diego, slapped Wallace and "60 Minutes" with a lawsuit for an April 20, 1997, report.

According to court papers filed in San Diego County Superior Court, Camacho claims Wallace and "60 Minutes" defamed him when it implied Camacho was working with Mexican drug traffickers.

The centerpiece of Wallace's program was a memo, said to be written by Camacho, giving a Mexican trucking company free access across the border. The company is said to have drug cartel ties.

Camacho contends the memo is fraudulent.

 The Zionist Organization of America, or ZOA, didn't take kindly to remarks made by U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin. According to a release by ZOA, Rubin made "a derogatory comment about the Talmud."

At a press conference June 15, Rubin was asked if the State Department would press the Palestine Liberation Organization to keep its pledge to delete from its charter provisions calling for the destruction of Israel.

Rubin responded that the Palestinians have "kind of done it already. ... I mean, let's not be so talmudic about it and try to tear it apart."

The Talmud is the collection of writings that constitute Jewish civil and religious law. ZOA President Morton Klein said the comment "is insulting to American Jews," and asked Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to reprimand Rubin.

 A recent edition of the London-based Soviet Analyst details Russia's new development and deployment of the TOPOL-M, a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. The 75-foot three-stage solid-fuel missile can carry nuclear warheads up to 16,000 miles.

According to Russian defense minister Igor Sergeyev, TOPOL-M is "unequaled in the world at present," and no technology exists to neutralize it. According ot the article, TOPOL-M demonstrates the Russians are still engaged in a military buildup, contrary to conventional wisdom in the West.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_119000/119524.stm

IMAGINE A RUN ON THE DOLLAR

Author: By Lester C. Thurow

Date: TUESDAY, February 24, 1998
Page: D4
Section: Business
The Boston Globe

For Americans the debate over Europe's common currency,
the euro, is over. It doesn't make any difference whether
we think it will be good or bad for Europe. It's going to
happen in just 10 months. For those of us who live
outside Europe, the only relevant question is: How is it
going to make our lives different?

For Americans it means the dollar will no longer
automatically be the world's reserve currency.
Individuals, companies, and countries will have to decide
how much of their reserves they want to hold in dollars
and how much they want to hold in euros. They will have
to decide when to move their reserves from dollars to
euros or from euros to dollars.

Effectively no one has had to make these decisions since
World War II. Since then, reserves have been held in
dollars. Individual European currencies were too small to
be reserve currencies. Their markets were not big enough
to allow hundreds of billions of dollars to move smoothly
in and out of their currencies. Japanese markets were
large enough, but the nation's financial markets were too
regulated to let the yen play that role. No party moves
money into a currency if it thinks government regulations
may be invoked to stop it from leaving that currency
whenever it wished.

Size and freedom of movement are important in picking a
reserve currency, but so is the expectation that the real
purchasing power that was initially deposited will be
there whenever the depositor wants to withdraw the funds.
If there is a choice, no one wants to hold reserves in a
currency that is falling in value. Ideally one would like
to be in a currency that is rising in value so that one
gets a little appreciation along with safety.

But in the last 50 years there has not been a choice. If
the value of the dollar fell, as it periodically did
( down nearly 34 percent from 118 to 78 yen to the dollar
just a few years ago ) , depositors stayed in dollars and
took their inevitable losses in purchasing power. A
falling dollar did not lead to a Mexican-style run on the
dollar.

But that changes with the advent of the euro. If the
dollar is falling in value or is expected to fall,
everyone, including many Americans, will want to get out
of dollars. A run on the dollar becomes possible.

In making the decision to get out of dollars, beliefs
about the long-run strengths and dynamism of the American
economy are irrelevant. Holders of currency reserves are
not buying shares in the American economy. They are
simply looking for short-term safety.

Initially the euro is apt to be an appreciating currency.
With the onset of the euro, 12 European currencies will
disappear. The reserves needed to make transactions in
these currencies, now held in dollars, won't be needed.
As these dollars are sold, the value of the dollar will
fall and the value of the euro will rise.

Countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that buy European
products will have to decide how many of their existing
dollar reserves should be moved into euros. Clearly some
should be moved. As a result, oil companies such as Saudi
Aramco will want to price some of their oil in euros.

Others will have to make a choice between what are
essentially two banks offering alternative currencies.
The bank offering dollars, America, is running a large
annual trade deficit ( $200 billion in 1997, but expected
to be near $300 billion in 1998 ) and will have net debts
to the rest of the world of about $1,500 billion dollars
in 1999.

In contrast, the European bank runs a trade surplus with
the rest of the world and is owed money by the rest of
the world. To many potential depositors, the European
bank is going to look much less risky than the American
bank.

As the euro goes up and the dollar goes down, those
looking for appreciation as well as safety will transfer
from dollars to euros. Those who sold Mexican and East
Asian currencies will be just as glad to sell dollars. If
the dollar goes down fast enough or long enough, fears
will rise that holding dollars will lead to large losses,
and a run on the dollar will start.

If this happens, the United States will quickly lose its
ability to run large trade deficits -- just as Mexico and
East Asia were quickly forced to correct their trade
deficits as their currencies were tumbling. Since most of
our imports are consumer goods, items like consumer
electronics and gasoline would become much more
expensive.

This does not mean a foreign exchange crisis will hit on
day one or day 1,000 after the introduction of the euro.
It just means something that could not previously happen
-- a run on the dollar -- becomes possible. An America
that could comfortably run a perpetual trade deficit now
runs large trade deficits at its peril.

----
That Boston Globe archive cost me $3.75 so, Gollum, you owe me a beer.

-EJ

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/baz.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Sorry about not commenting on last attempt I thought better on what I would have said about the Hamas Leader, for once I will not try to stir things up. Believe it or not I feel better. Shalom to all.

oh go ahead...
what the heck...
is it that you're biting your tongue...cause you want to say/scream...that the Hamas is nothing but a bunch of hooligans....?!?
there...
now....
feel better?

No it was worse than that. I wont be drawn into it, ecept to say its a good thing I wasn't at the border crossing with a stinger or tow.

up, up & away....in 'our' beautiful balloon....

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 24

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,011,130 - 11,793 troy ounces
Silver 87,576,179 - 11,232 troy ounces
Copper 65,845 - 1,223 short tons

N/A= Not available.
*******************************************************************
Fox-Man

Is it tons or tonnes or are they both the same?
Does a ton ( or tonne? ) measure gold in 0z AV?
What about regular tons ( tonnes? )

Some one here is probably an expert on this .... yes?

Godammit, Gollum! You done did it to me again! You set the volume knob to here and the limit knob to there and the Huh-wuht?! perception widget to this and the Yeehaaa! lever to that and got your +100, more or less. That's it! I ain't betting against you ever again. Well, at least not until tonight, that is. I got a hunch about the Nikkei.

Donald, The Fed's in the biz of maintaining just the right amount of inflation, but has no effective equipment for preventing deflation, although anti-inflation equipment used at the wrong time can accelerate deflation. Maybe that's what he's trying to say? Anyway, investors only hear the message: Party on. No interest rate hikes.

-EJ

http://landru.i-link-2.net/monques/FR1.html

Sittin back waitin fer da comments. Contrarions may take a boo also.

DJ to Silver ratio 8923/526 =1696 ( still 10% from all time high )

You can't eat Gold or Silver!
And the average shopper ain't gonna be able to buy any groceries with it either. 1 ) because there won't be much in the way of groceries to buy and 2 ) because grocers don't commonly accept Gold now and won't in the future unless enough Gold coin gets into the hands of the average buyer to be commonly accepted - but that is unlikely because the large holders of Gold don't want that to happen.
Many members of the Gold Club and maybe Silver Club are above the starving, rioting, looting mobs. They don't give a damn about the plight of the masses. They will make sure their fresh Alaskan Crab arrives by jet this afternoon for their dinner party tonight. Where will they get the fuel to fly the jet? No problem when they own the oil fields, refinery and distribution. Y2K? No problem! They just have one of the boys take the fuel from whomever has it. You can bet they will be armed to the teeth. Just like a ruling class in a third world country - just like Klinton in Washington - he has others do his dirty work and take falls to protect him.

1 ounce, troy = 0.031,103,476,8 kg exactly.
1 tonne = 1 metric ton = 1,000 kilograms = 32,150.746 troy oz.
1 ton ( UK or long ) = 2,240 lb = 1,016.046,908,8 kg = 32,666.667 troy oz.
1 ton ( US or short ) = 2,000 lb = 907.184 74 kg = 29,166.667 troy oz.

There is a difference between a long ton and a short ton:

Short ton = 2000 lbs
Long ton = 2240 lbs

-EJ

one ton = 2000 pounds

one tonne = 1000 kilograms = 2204.622 pounds

I'll take one of each.
-EJ

"We will now see China walk the trail to Berlin as the Japan does rush for the American dollar! Indeed, the Yen will seek much more US debt as they are, locked out! The Mr. Alan Greenspan will attend a board meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Tokyo next month. I think the markets will see "much change" of spirit after this meeting. It will be the end of the past and the start of the future for trading gold! We watch this new market together, yes?" - ANOTHER

How is it ANOTHER goes from pidgeon English to perfect English from paragraph to paragraph?? Hmmmm.

As I recall, Mr ANOTHER has been known to use ghost writers. Some, like FRIEND OF ANOTHER, write in the more modern English ... others, including ANOTHER himself, apparently don't.

HenryD

...a multiple schizoid personality.

One moment he's a perfect country gentleman speaking Oxford English..

The next he becomes David Carradine.

Duh, it's just a guess.

Thanks.

F*

Is that fair? Cracking us up all over the place when we're trying to do some serious work here!

har har har har You almost had me in tears yesterday.

Down, Boy! Down!

out and says clearly what he thinks or what he thinks will happen. Thus one who is apt to project one's hopeful wishes onto the world sees a message in his vague words that is encouraging, no matter what those wishes may be. ANOTHER leaves much to interpretation so that he can never be "wrong" only "misinterpreted." This is accomplished using the device of limited language skills, lending the vague words an air of alien wisdom. This is most effective, yes? I am forever amazed at how well it always works.

-EJ

I've wondered the same me'self. ANOTHER has some interesting insights,
but the phoney accent kinda makes ya wonder...

And about Tonnes, Tons and the metric system:

Why couldn't the US have stuck to the plan and converted!?!

I had to learn it all in school, and now I can't keep
my ounces from my kilograms from my meters from my yards straight!
How many pints in a quart? uhhh... 2? 4? Or is that in a gallon?
Ounces in a pound? welll... Wet or dry measure? uhhh...

The US legislature was too dang scared to take a stand and force it.
More worried about re-election than doing the right thing. As usual.

Regards, ( in whatever units you wish )

MG

I know I sound like a crazy man, but I think there are great gold mining companies that can be bought now at bargain based prices. I'm thinking of companies like , NGC, ABX, HM, PDG, etc. We are in the final stage of a dollar strength. How much longer do you think Japan will tolerate their present environment where the yen and their economy are sinking on a daily basis ? They have run out of options. Either their economy will experience a total collapse with far reaching consequences for the global economy or an attempt will be made to stabilize it. The only way out is to start buying gold on the open market by selling some of their massive hoard of US treasuries. I repeat, they NO longer have any other options and they know it. It's very possible that the Japanese government is paralyzed and unable to make decisions. If so, the markets
from now on will take over and make all the necessary decisions for them.
I know that the market decision is financial panic, where the dollar will rise
vs the yen to a level where the Nikkei will collapse far below 10,000 rendering all their banks insolvent. If that happened , then the DOW will sink in conjunction with the Nikkei.

"Another-hopper, snatch the nugget from my hand, then it is time for you to go"

It's often more interesting than the screamers we've been getting here lately. The beauty of the whole thing is that at least we have variety to please all tastes, faiths and fancies.

HenryD ( Got Gold? )

Bring along your cue and I'll shoot you a game for that beer double or nothing.

I have it on good authority that Kissinger spoke perfect English
before becoming a statesman... Know someone who heard him speak
long before he was 'someone'.

He *learned* to speak slow broken english, so that he could always
deny any specific meaning when the winds of politics changed.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! [in the long term] )

Another IS Henry Kissinger! In Sybil's clothing.

Share your views about ANOTHER'S. Circumstances in Japan will force change but I think that the profitability of the yen/dollar/t-bond spread msut be so great to be a block to the games end.

In the mean time Dow 10,000 seems much closer than gold $315 - on a percentage basis it is and in terms of momentum there is no contenst.

but the constant search for truth, a sublime but not always pretty process. Yes, I own gold, several hundred oz. This is my hedge. I also own stocks in certain high tech companies because this is the only industry I understand well enough to feel competent to invest in. One stock has fallen to 2/3 the price I paid, but another has risen to 3x what I paid. I never invest in well-known stocks that trade in large average daily volumes, that rise and fall in close synch with the markets. The stock market could crash tomorrow and the stocks I own, with the exception of a few oil stocks, I believe will remain largely uneffected. Some day gold stocks may behave that way, or contrarily.

I have a personal affection for gold, introduced to the rare and ancient metal by my father as a child, but I have resisted for nearly 20 years the temptation to buy any. Now the time, sadly, has come. Sadly, because the time to buy gold is when things are falling apart. In two years we will look back on these times fondly.

-EJ

.

Why would the Japenese sell dollars and buy gold ? It seems a far better idea to take yen and buy gold. Gold is increasing in terms of the yen.

They surely have far more yen than dollars, and all the time would be strengthening their own currencies. I agree on one point, they have to do something. Please don't everyone answer at once. Just call me one dumb gold bug.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.51. The 50 day moving average is 30.10.

is above the rioting, looting, hungry, cold masses.

History is on there side....
in fact the more centralised the power, the more severe the populace backlash....only gold carries wealth through such times....death and destruction there will be but oh how the mighty will fall.

The Dow/Gold ratio may be 10% below its high, but the S&P/Gold ratio just hit a new all-time high: 3.870.

To put this in perspective, the S&P/Gold ratio has gone up 13.8% this year ( over 3.402 at year-end, 1997 ) . In addition, we are 38.1% higher than the absolute peak day in 1968 ( 2.802 ) and 150.2% higher than the absolute peak day in 1929 ( 1.547 ) .

What's interesting is that the peak was higher in 1968 than in 1929, but the following valley was lower in 1980 ( 0.130 ) than the valley in 1942 ( 0.221 ) by 41%. If the valley following this peak goes lower than in 1980, then we are in for an incomparable ride when the tide turns.

Just for the heck of it, let's figure out what happens if today's high is the peak and extrapolate from the previous declines to what the low could be. 1968's high exceeded 1929's by about 81%; the 1980 low exceeded 1942's low by about 41%--a roughly two to one correlation. That is, the degree to which the previous high was exceeded about about double the rate at which the succeeding low was bested.

We are 38% over 1968's high right now, so let's say we go about 19% lower than in 1980 when everything comes apart. That would bring us to 0.105--a drop of 97.3% in the S%P/Gold ratio. If the S&P goes down to, say, 500 ( a 56% decline from today ) , then a ratio of 0.105 would translate into gold at $4,750 an ounce. I like! I like!

To quote Kitcoites: "I don't care, I'm buying more, and taking delivery!"

--Fergie

XAU/Spot Ratio = .232. The 50 day moving average is .265. My database contains 8 occasions where the XAU closed in the 67.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #5. The #1 ranking was on 4/30/86 with a gold price of $346.20, an XAU 0f 67.74, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .196

Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.50. The 50 day moving average is 53.43

I misread "Golddkm's" message. But, anyway, Donald, how close are we to Dow/Gold high?

Fergie

Spot gold $299.06; spot silver $5.62; XAU 79.44

...as will I, my friend, as will I.

The Dow/Gold Ratio high was on June 5th with a reading of 31.01. Gold was $291.40 and the Dow was 9037.71

Gollum, You're on! Drop me your email address and we'll set it up. Warning: I learned to play pool in bars.

Mountain Goat: I grew up down the street from Kissinger when I was very young. He once bought a new sod lawn and someone came in the middle of the night with a truck, rolled it back up and stole it. He was not a well liked guy in the hood. Basically, he was an a-hole.

Prometheus: Congrats. You've got ANOTHER figured out. ( See above. )

jims, From here on out, the numbers get more and more surprisingly ugly. It takes a while for this to sink in but it is sinking in. Contrary to short-term appearances, the DOW is now a bear market. There is money still in tech stocks. But the hog is in the tunnel.

-EJ

Your XAU/POG statistic "The #1 ranking was on 4/30/86 with a gold price of $346.20, an XAU 0f 67.74, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .196" is not heartwarming. Doesn't this mean that an XAU value of about 57+ is possible with the current gold price of roughly $293? ( 57.5/293=.196 )

I hope you are right - and that Gold returns to us to be commonly used in coins for day-to-day trade. And that the might fall and the masses sober up from decades of living high on the hog.
In many ways I look forward to the other side of Y2K.

the London gold fix is a true market mechanism. It's not what you think it is- a bunch of manipulators sitting around and dictating to everyone else.

Instead of being a continuously operating, open-outcry market like the NYSE or the CBOT, it is a twice-daily consensus market where the trades of all participants are reconciled.

Read up on how it works in the great series of articles by Orlin Grabbe:

http://www.zolatimes.com/v2.16/gold1text.html

He also explains how the Bank of England used the London market to hold the POG at $35, when that was being done.

If the Japanese bought gold with yen, wouldn't this simply increase the value of gold versus the yen? It seems it would take more and more yen to buy additional gold. How would this help the Japanese?

Fantastic post! Generated lots of serious discussion too. The third article in Grabbe's series explains how gold lease & forward rates work, for all you folks who want to "tinker under the hood" so-to-speak.

http://www.zolatimes.com/v2.19/gold3text.html

- Steve

SWC insider sales for June posted. The fact I looked at it a week later shows how exciting it is. But someone might be interested, considering they posted a profit for Q1 and the stock is up over 27 again. http://biz.yahoo.com/t/s/swc.html

I too hope that 'real' money will once again rule, but sad to say I
tend to agree with your 16:12...

I don't think there is enough gold in the hands of Joe Sixpack
to form a basis of currency. Maybe, if there is enough alarm soon
Joe will start buying, but I'm not holding my breath.

However, I definitely DO think that if the $ plunges in value,
your local grocer ( if he has any supplies left ) will BARTER gold
for food... Yes, in that sense it's a currency, but not one
many people will be able to draw upon, thus it will probably
not circulate too well. IMHO

Regards,

MG ( Hi Ho Silver! )

has to happen whenever the lease rate goes higher than either the forward rate or prime? That could happen, for example, at a lease rate of 5% and a forward rate of 4%. Any inversion of the normal lease/forward ratio would wreck the carry trade. Also, has there ever been a situation where the forward rate has gotten above prime?

- Steve

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/imf_direct_1.html

vying for the Count Dracula Award of the world's worst unelected leaders - he's definately going to win or place.

Digital currency is here to stay, Y2K or no. Imagine running a modern exchange where trades had to be settled with physical commodities? The world has been headed in the opposite direction for centuries. Thus paper and then digital currency. What matters is the means by which that currency is valued and how well over the short term and long term it retains value. A digial currency backed by one or several commodities is not an anachronistic concept -- a currency that is based on digital versus paper media for transaction volume, and a commodity backing to reduce value volitility. Gold is a logic choice.

I quote our friend DEJ re: Value of Gold
Copyright  1998 DEJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

"Commodities are valued on the basis of supply and demand. With a
monetary commodity the demand component consists if both commodity
demand and the demand for the commodity as money. My opinion is
because of the large above ground stocks of gold, gold is always
in a state of oversupply if one were to only look at its demand as
a pure commodity. But gold is also a monetary commodity and where
one makes or looses money is on the soundness of one's estimate
of the future monetary demand for gold. If one thinks future
economic conditions will remain placid and demand for gold as
money will not rise, then one should either short gold or remain
invested in something else. If one thinks future economic conditions
will favor an increase in the monetary demand for gold, then one should
buy the metal."

Thx, DEJ.

-EJ

The Japanese have more RESERVES than any other nation.
If they used reserves and bought GOLD, it would cheapen the
dollar and at the same time provide them with an asset
that is right now undervalued.

This would strengthen their reserves and at the same time
help the YEN to appreciate as gold appreciates in the future.
If they sold US treasuries to buy gold it would be a real
double whammy to the US and the US dollar.

Hashimoto said he was tempted to do this some while ago.
I can not understand what he is waiting for.

It could be that he is afraid it would completly TANK the US
economy and therefore he would lose a very valuable trade customer.

I believe the Japanese hold the future of the US economy in their
hands. Could it be that this is why the US joined with the
Japanese in the latest round of intervention?

In my opinion, 4 billion dollars will not turn the trick. The
Japanese tried 20 billion dollars worth of currency intervention
back in April and it did very little. The 4 billion dollar round
was probably just window dressing to make the meeting with the
Chinese a little warmer. Buying YEN for Dollars is like sending
money down into a black hole. Japanese Banks are toast-IMHO.

ROR: a left wing analysis of the japanese crisis. Bottom line -- they are reluctant to meet US demands because such a capitulation would lead to depression and double digit unemployment.


19 June 1998

One week ago Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin was telling the US Congress that no
intervention would be undertaken to stop the fall in the Japanese yen. It was up to the
government in Tokyo to take action, he insisted.

But just days later the US Federal Reserve Board joined with Japanese financial authorities to
organise a $6 billion bailout to stop the plunge in the yen. What had changed in such a short
period?

When Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto spoke to US president Clinton late on Tuesday
night to urge American intervention, the signs of a global crash were clearly evident. The yen
was in free fall, having dropped from 141 to the dollar to 146, partly as a response to Rubin's
remarks, and was set to reach 150 in the next 24 hours.

Fears were being expressed across Asia that the plunge of the yen would set off a series of
currency devaluations, sparking a "second wave" financial crisis. Chinese authorities had
made it clear that their decision not to revalue the yuan was being reconsidered in light of the
yen's collapse and the refusal of the major financial powers to halt it.

A devaluation of the yuan would almost certainly see the breaking of the Hong Kong-US
dollar peg, setting in motion a new round of devaluations across the region -- an Asian
beggar-thy-neighbour currency war.

Just hours before Hashimoto's call, concerns over the global consequences of the Asian crisis
were articulated at a conference in Australia. The World Bank's senior official for the Asian
region, Jean-Michel Severino, warned that all East Asian economies were in a slump, and
faced a contraction of up to 15 percent.

"We are talking about a major recession and probably a depression in this part of the world.
This depression may be very long-lasting if one does not manage it very, very carefully."

His warnings were endorsed by Thai Commerce Minister and Deputy Prime Minister
Supachai Panitchpakdi who said the continued fall of the yen could spark a global recession.
"If the yen would drop with no limit or bottom, then the second Asian crisis would mean a
first-world economic depression," he told reporters.

The plunge in the yen on Tuesday was accompanied by a sharp fall on the stockmarket -- the
Nikkei index tumbled below the crucial 15,000 mark. The combined yen-Nikkei fall hit the
Japanese banks from two sides. With some 30 percent of the loans raised by the banks
denominated in dollars, every fall in the yen undermined the solvency of the banking system.
At the same time, the fall in the Nikkei devalued the banks' share portfolios, further
weakening their financial position and threatening to put them under the 8 percent capital
adequacy ratio demanded by the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) .

The increasingly perilous state of the entire banking system is illustrated by the Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the world's largest bank. In the wake of the 11 percent yen devaluation
since March it has seen its capital adequacy ratio drop from 8.52 to 8.2 percent, very close to
the level below which it would not be permitted by the BIS to trade.

If the yen-Nikkei slide had continued at the same rate as on Monday and Tuesday -- and there
was nothing to indicate that it would slacken -- then it would have only been a matter of time,
possibly only a few days, before bankruptcies of major companies, banks and financial
institutions were announced. Intervention on the markets was needed to prevent a major
financial crisis.

No doubt in pressing for such action, Hashimoto would have warned Clinton of the global
consequences of a financial collapse in Japan. His point would undoubtedly have been
pressed home by the 200 point fall in the Dow Jones index on Monday, amid signs that the
US stockmarket was beginning to feel the effects of the deepening Asian crisis.

The US-Japan intervention has quelled the immediate turmoil in the markets, but the
fundamental problems remain and are worsening by the day.

Already market observers are warning that the effects of the US intervention will rapidly wear
off and the yen could resume its slide as early as next week. Within 24 hours, the
London-based Financial Times, in one of a series of editorials on the Japan-Asia crisis,
warned that "policies that simply buy time will not pre-empt deflation in Japan" and that
"without decisive action, disaster lies ahead."

Japan and Asia

The threatened meltdown in Japan is intimately bound up with the crisis in the rest of East
Asia -- the full extent of which is only now coming to light.

Since the collapse of the Thai baht last July, the five most affected countries -- South Korea,
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines -- have experienced a capital outflow of
around $115 billion, an amount equivalent to 10 percent of their combined Gross Domestic
Product. In addition, bank credits have been reduced by $88 billion, amounting to 8 percent
of GDP. This means these countries have suffered a withdrawal of funds equivalent to 18
percent of GDP virtually overnight.

The expected contraction in overall economic activity ranges from around 4 or 5 percent for
Korea and Malaysia to as much as 15 or 20 percent for Indonesia.

The Asian banking failure is one of the biggest in world financial history. According to
calculations by the Morgan Guaranty Trust Company the funds required to recapitalise the
banking system in Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia amount to 20 percent of GDP and as much
as 30 percent of GDP in Thailand and South Korea. This compares with a recapitalisation of
4-5 percent of GDP for the US during the savings and loans crisis from 1984 to 1991 and
12-15 percent of GDP for Mexico in 1995-97.

The debt burden of the Japanese banking system, estimated to be at least $600 billion, has
rendered ineffective all attempts by the Japanese government to stimulate the economy
through increased public works spending.

The theory behind such interventions is that as increased government spending stimulates the
economy, businesses will increase their investment, thereby providing an additional stimulus,
resulting in further investment and expanded economic activity. In Japan, however, this
virtuous circle has failed to materialise because the banks, weighed down by non-performing
loans, are unable to provide the funds necessary for increased investment. Consequently, the
stimulus rapidly peters out.

This is why even as the country's largest ever recovery program passed through parliament
this week, it was written off as providing at best only a temporary boost to the economy.

Even the Bank of Japan downplayed the impact of the $117 billion package. Its
implementation was "assumed to boost demand through additional public works and special
income tax deduction," the bank said, but these "positive effects of the fiscal policy may be
weakened, if the ongoing rapid deterioration in employment and income conditions further
dampens the overall economic activities."

The Clinton administration, together with the governments of the European powers, has
demanded that Tokyo take action to wipe out the crippling bad debts and "restructure" the
banking system.

Accordingly, the intervention to rescue the yen was accompanied by a statement from Rubin
that the US was looking forward to "the implementation of a comprehensive action program
that will create the conditions that are essential for a healthy and prosperous economy."

Hashimoto replied that Japan would "expeditiously restructure the financial system, including
the prompt disposal of bad assets."

But, as usual, the diplomatic exchanges did not even touch on the real implications and
consequences of a "restructure" of the Japanese banking system and the elimination of bad
debts.

The extent of the bad debt is unprecedented in world financial history -- roughly equivalent of
the GDP of France. To eliminate it means a program of bank closures, the shutting down of
insurance companies and other financial institutions, the forced sale of land, building and
other assets, the closure or amalgamation of industrial firms and corporations.
Unemployment, already at a post-war high of more than 4 percent, would soar to double-digit
levels.

In short, "restructuring" of the banks means plunging Japan into a recession not seen since
the 1930s, and unleashing a far-reaching social crisis.

This is why the Japanese government has been so resistant to the demands of the US and its
European allies. But, as the events of this week show, time is running out and Japan is
heading into a breakdown, the consequences of which will reverberate throughout the world
economy.

kind ) , can lecture a sovereign nation ( Mexico ) that they should increase their tax rate because that "is the worldwide trend" ? These guys are a bunch of morons ! They ought to all work for themselves for a while and learn how hard it is to make a buck !

( Promy's 17.43 )

as Japanese hands are in the pockets of the US. The Japanese sell their US treasuries and they kill their export market. But, at some point, this will be in their interest. Such as when the US market crashes under its own debt weight... assets fall behind liabilities...
-EJ

Let's imagine we have a teeter-totter, and on one side of the board

is W Buffett ( the prince of paper profits ) ; on the other side we have

N Oppenheimer, ( the king of gold profits ) . Who is up and who is down?

Obviously, W Buffett is up, and N Oppenheimer is down. What happens

now? If N Oppenheimer gets off of the teeter totter, W Buffett will

come to the ground ( but N Oppenheimer will be there to greet him- an

untoward event ) . If N Oppenheimer stays on the teeter-totter and the

other side is slowly loaded with additional weight, Oppenheimer will finally rise.

AHHHH Gollum, so you like to shoot pool. If you are ever in my neck of the woods ( southern Oregon ) , I would invite you to a game.

I am thinking of taking a trip to new Zealand this Jan. Are there any kitcoites who could give me information??? I have heard it is a beautiful country.

Retired soldier - was in the army for three years Ft. Bragg N.C. made a lot of rank ( PFC five times ) My first sargent had to give me a "reup" talk when I was a shorttimer but his heart was not in it he asked me if I was going to re-enlist, I said no, he smiled and said good. I was racing motorcycles at the time.

Excellent informative article - who was its author? thanks,

The investor formerly known as 223 has fired his last shot today, buying a not inconsiderable amount of RANGY. With no dry powder left he retires to the mess tent for some Jack Daniel's Ole Number 7 and branch water and to sharpen his number 2 pencil, awaiting the final assault on the POG. He wonders how much paper cuts really hurt. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RANGY&d=1y

now.

Here's a link for you

http://www.wsws.org/news/1998/jun1998/jap-j24.shtml

An event sticks out in my mind because of a coincidence. My family moved to Canada in 1968, and I was just a kid, but that happened to be the year Canada removed what little silver was left in its coins and started issuing worthless base metal coins.

I had lived through a revolution and currency instability and was precociously aware of issues that kids my age didn't even know existed. ( Interestingly, I have lived in two countries whose banknotes can be folded to read "Banana"- try it, Canadians, it gives you a whole new perspective on your curency : )

Anyhow, my ears pricked up when I heard news reports on the radio that the silver was gone from coins, and the pre-1968 coins would be worth more to collectors. I immediately took all my silver coins and put them in a little box, and kept my eyes peeled for pre-'68 coins in any change I got.

What was fascinating to me was how quickly pre-1968 coins disappeared! They vanished in a flash. I hadn't heard of Gresham's law, but when I did I knew right away how true it is.

It wasn't as popular a topic of conversation as, say, sports- but many ordinary people knew about the relative real value of silver and base metal coins, and it often came up for discussion at the time. A lot of people had put silver coins in boxes and cans- and they mostly sold them when the Hunt bros. price spike drove silver up to a crazy price.

The upshot of all this is- I think you might be surprised by just how aware the general public is of the intrinsic value of PM coins. My opinion is, however, that the public would be much more willing to start using silver coins with familiar national mint markings than gold coins which the public just can't evaluate on sight, even the ones issued by the US mint or the RCM. If the public became more familiar with the various gold coins though, perhaps because of economic conditions that require a return to PM coins, you might see acceptance grow.

Anyhow, I think that bags of silver coins are probably the best for preparing for currency collapse, not numismatic ones in good condition but circulated ones which carry no numismatic premium.

Another thought- there have been numerous gold seizures thoughout history by gov'ts, but I've never heard of a silver seizure. Have you?

- Steve

An Arny career was never meant to be for everyone, obviously you've done well or you wouldn't be posting here. I wish you much continued success ,live long and prosper! SHALOM

that created their debt crisis will prevent them from getting out of it, no matter how insistent the US and Europe.
-EJ

MM on CNBC said Greenspan etal are aware of the problem and he thinks they won't BUT-BUT- BUT .

Can someone answer this ( 100Billion Question )

Has the Preacher been heard from lately? I really miss reading his TA

to Japan ( just yesterday. ) It essentially says: "Keep the Yen below 150 to the Dollar or we will retaliate by devaluing."

- Steve

Who is MM ? TIA

Like I said I'm just a dumb gold bug, the dollar is destroying most all currencies, and I am steadily buying gold with it. Just think if I could use confederate notes ( not really ) but some monetary device that is going in the crapper., for some device that has been around before Christ. I am probably all wrong on this, but for 6.5 billon $ U. S. I would try me about 2000 Tonnes. If the yen gets to 200 to1 I can't see as to how it's gonna hurt anyway. It might mean world war lll, but listen to the folks around here, we're gonna have that anyway.

They have Heraldo in China...God help us now!

Heraldo Clinton spin " they are more worried about the Japanese Yen then they are about the President's yen for an Intern"

HighRise

thanks in advance.....

can some-one please re-post the url for digisys charts?
the reason is long winded, and moot.......

thanks.....

bought 2 beans and 1 corn at the open....beans will be at 750 with-in 4 weeks....and will top out around 12......corn around 8....

i've got the conductor of the grain train by the throat.....full speed ahead......time is running out to get on board....limit moves are imminent!!!

cherokee!: ) ..dotssmfatimmb..eb...you.have.always.had.a.seat..and.feather.

sold it's treasuries long ago, and they have wanted to increase their gold holdings also, but their hands are tied. They are completely dependent on the US for defense, and this is the trump card that the US has played to force the Japanese to do anything other than liquidate their US debt.

This is why the US Treasury dept. has intervened on behalf of the Yen twice within the last 2 years. They know that anything that forces a wholesale liquidation of treasuries will bring about chaos.

The Japanese haven't been idle in trying to get out of their velvet handcuffs either. I think the rumours that they have been accumulating gold quietly are true. Certainly people who have been visiting Japan say that individual businessmen are buying gold and silver at a good clip- it's quite an underground movement there.

It's also no accident that the Japanese government is starting to prepare itself to have an active military again. They recently changed the rules of conduct for their navy so that it can escort ships through foreign waters and use force ( important now that China is building a blue-water navy, and they can't count on the US navy to deal with either Russian or Chines ships. ) They are quietly assembling the materiel and expertise to fabricate a nuclear weapon within a matter of weeks. And now that the WWII generation is dying off, the gov't is working behind the scenes to prepare the political ground for legislation to reintroduce true armed forces.

Your suggested link included the following information. If this is correct and if it is also correct that reform measures would cause a depression in Japan - it then seems either impractical or impossible for Japan ( or the U.S. to encourage Japan ) to reform anything.

". . . But here the process of capital deflation is very much a two-edged sword. If the write-down of Japanese capital assets proceeds too rapidly, the danger is that financial institutions will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of international financial assets, with catastrophic consequences for the world economy. At the end of 1996, Japanese net external assets amounted to some $891 billion, roughly equivalent to the US net external debt. Japanese institutions alone hold some $318 billion worth of US Treasury bonds. If this capital started to flow back to Japan, in order to shore up balance sheets at home, it would bring an immediate rise in interest rates, leading to a collapse of the Wall Street share market bubble and the onset of a global financial meltdown and depression."

I put a loaf of federal reserve notes on a hook today too.
Not much action on the bottom for a long while, then a tug, a short time later I pulled up a big carp ( goldfish ) . 1000 NGC @ 23.50
I've got to stop bottom fishing.

Almost two years ago I saw the handwriting on the wall, and liquidated traditional stocks and bought gold stocks. Unfortunately, we all know what has happened to gold stocks since.

Then, when stocks such as Pegasus and Caledonia dropped from over $5.00 per share down to about $2.00 per share, I used plastic to buy more... thinking that SURELY gold couldn't stay low for very long. Even though we've been in a bear market since 1980, gold has ALWAYS gone down then up, then down, then up...but it has NOT gone down and stayed down. At least, not until now.

Needless to say, Caledonia ( CALVF ) went down to 0.25 and Pegasus went down to 0.16 per share, having filed Chapter 13 because of the extended pressure put on gold by the ( numerous adjectives deleted ) SHORTS.

Any of you who are good at math can quickly deduce what has happened to the value of my precious few investments...THEY HAVE BEEN DEVASTATED!!! What I'm talking about here is not simply a correction, but a virtual wipe-out, and unless gold changes direction soon, I'll lose everything and have to file for bankruptcy. How much longer before gold turns around??? Even if we get back to early 1997 levels, I can recover my losses in the gold stocks -- provided that happens sooner rather than later. Furthermore, I don't need to describe what has happened to my leveraged gold and silver investments...

Am I alone here, or are other goldbugs bleeding to death financially?

--Skip

I also have experienced the same but got my investment out but left alot of profit in someones pocket .God I was stupid.Now I am scared about CHINA and my other stocks. I hope to GOD the powers to be realise what they are playing with in CHINA .I hope someone has told them the seriousness of the problem.

close by. Did you try folding your Bank of Canada bill so you can have some Banana Money yet? : )

Are you going to be part of the get-together when Fred Reifenberg passes through?

Best wishe,
- Steve

I may have been off short term but I am still very bearish on Gold. I'm short gold right now. Expect new lows with a couple weeks. The S&P is looking very good. I am not long now but I am looking ot get long at some point soon.

Wednesday June 24, 6:21 pm Eastern Time

Russian ministry seeks halt to banks' gold exports
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/russia_gol_1.html

HighRise

The lead economist at Bear Stearns agrees with you in this respect - if the Japanese lose faith in the value of the yen, they will begin to spend it fast and this will re-ignite their economy. Presumably they'll spend some of it on gold.

For those who are interested in the possible senarios after a global disaster and how people might behave toward one another, I recommend renting the ( new ) video of the movie The Postman, with Kevin Kostner. It is almost three hours long, but it kept me riveted for the whole time. I think the basic theme, from which the title is taken, is a little unlikely, but who's to say when entire nations have lost nearly everything and personal survival becomes priority 1?

Sad to say, the plot id not deal with details, such as the mediums of exchange used, but the problem of food availability and clothing and shelter was graphically depicted. It's a good yarn, and designed to entertain, which it did for me. A lot of practical problems of lesser importance were not addressed, but maybe that would have been too tedious. It is, after all, a Hollywood movie and it left me feeling good about other human beings ( mostly ) . Oh, and there weren't any corner grocery stores left, so you wouldn't really have to worry about whether the grocer would "accept" your G&S coins. I'm sure he would have accepted an AR-15 or a .45 ACP if he had existed, but how do you make change? A sack of potatoes for 10 rounds of .223 ammo, maybe, but coinage solves LOTS of problems in everyday commerce.

I didn't forget that this senario was only one of an unlimited number that might take place. There could be an infinate number of variations. But they would all have certain common elements. Nearly anyone could guess what they would be. But the behavior of people toward one another might not be so easy to anticipate.

Here.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/charts.htm

Stay cool.

I could be awarded medals for both brilliance and stupidity in gold investments I've made since my first buy back in '81, overall its been more rewarding than plunking it into 'US equities', and much funner.

who has the digisys url????

thanks,,

sORRY ABOUT THE DOUBLE TRY Oops didn't mean to shout. Fortunately I bought gold the first time in 74, sold enough in 80 to buy a house, first wife got the house, but not ALL the gold. I just started buying again in January so am reletively healthy with it as long as it stays near 300.

thanks promo...

i was having commodity with-drawls!

bblwalms..

# 7089 and # 7024 suggest that WJC may have been "bugged" ny some of the
many Chinese visitors to the White House.

Every goldbug on this site,including me,has been creamed relative to the non-gold equity market. Read the following news today and weep with us:

The S&P shot up 13.40, or 1.2%, to a record 1132.89, snapping the mark of 1130.54 set April 22. And the broad, big-cap measure wasn't the only index on fresh record ground: The large-cap Nasdaq 100 surged 28.77, or 2.2%, to an all-time high of 1331.16, erasing the April 22 record of 1290.90. The Morgan Stanley High-Tech 35 leapt 11.56, to a record 596.52. The MSH's old record was 594.96, set May 13. G'night.

in gold stocks and bullion,let me once again draw your attention to the pre 1933 $20 US Saints in MS60/61/62/63 since September of last year they have appreciated some 58% of melt,don't want to sound like a broken record,however this is the real world the price rise is due to supply falling short of the demand.....that old saying some lead others will follow,right now numismatics are leading the way.....the rest will follow when I have no clue

My "Old Man" ( not the dark, crusty trader, but my Commanding Officer ) gave me my reup talk in the Nam in '67. We were sitting by my radio at the time, and the Arab Israeli War broke out and was being relayed as we spoke. I looked at him, he looked at me. We knew it was useless. L'Chaim! Will I see you in L.I.?

the America holds over the Japanese. Yes, the new generation of Japanese view national military sovereignty as a right of the Japanese people. Yes, they view the Chinese as a real threat. Are the Japanese buying gold to get off the US$ cross just as the Europeans have created their own currency? I have no proof of this. But I will be there in a month or so and I'll ask around, get a few guy-on-the-street points of view, for what they're worth.
-EJ

This is a tough game we are in. I think I am in denial. I have confidence in the fact that Gold will come back someday - all I have to do is hold on till then. If Gold returns to 400/ounce I will have made some money, enough to justify the wait.

Would you rather be in the DOW?
Would you sell your house or Gold Stocks tomorrow?

It takes creative financing, get some more credit card applications.

Bankruptcy is not a cheap easy way out, and my guess is you are still solvent on paper, so you should file chapter 13 as Pagasas filed 11...this is NOT bankruptcy, it is reorganization. Will hold creditors off until Gold goes up. You see what Pagasas is doing?

Buy 5000 shares of Pagasas for a $1,000, maybe it will go to $5 / share = $25,000
or 1000 shares of ECO for $2,500, maybe it will go back to $15 / share = $15,000

Not bad if one can keep it together for a while.

Note: If you have also bought in at these lower prices, you will notice a significant improvement in your account balance as the market starts to recover - the pain leaves rather quickly.


Hang in there, and be patient my fellow bleeder. We are now a lot closer to the turn then we were 6 months ago.........I HOPE!

HighRise

However, I believe there is light at the end of the tunnel and it is getting brighter.

1. From a seasonal standpoint gold tends to bottom in June, so far that
was June 15th.
2. The weekly momentum oscillator for gold is positively diverging from
the January lows, this is very significant.
3. The retracement in gold has been only 12% of the two year slide from
Feb 96 to Jan 98 From an Elliott Wave standpoint that is not typical
for corrective wave B's or wave 2's
4. If a major 3 wave corrective rally is underway from the lows of
January, then this should be wave b of a larger wave B to the
upside. Wave a which was three waves into the April highs has
been followed by a "b" wave down to the lows of last week. Wave
b's tend to exhibit sentiment equivalent to the preceding impulse
move to the downside.
5. Finally, the TSE resources are diverging positively with the financials.
This is similar to Martin Pring's Inflation/Deflation indicator. We may
be in a deflationary trend but it is not all one way. We could see the
resources outperform the financials for a period of time. Of course
this is a relative relationship which has many possibilities. The ratio
is the weakest it has been for 15 years. The negative momentum for
this ratio peaked last November and is almost neutral now.

Enough of this defeatist talk of gold at $400 per oz. Look at the Dow! It went from 1000 to 9000 in its recent runup. Can you expect less than $2400 gold in the next secular bull market? Buy and hold - but do it with GOLD! Get Real...get gold!

What part of Oregon do you reside in. I'm going to be in Oregon next week on business and would enjoy meeting you. Send me an e-mail idt@worldnet.att.net

You have my sympathy. I KNOW there are other GB's out there who are also bleeding in varying degrees. I still own some $700 gold AND some $20 silver from the early eighties. My health is not good and I am not a youngster anymore, so I can ill afford anymore losses and have to be extremely careful with new purchases.

Unfortunately, the markets seldom respond in the ways we ofttimes expect them to. That's why it is wise to NEVER bite off more than you can chew and allow for reversals. I usually figure the worst case that can happen, then allow another 20% to 30% worse than THAT to calculate what I can afford to be down. Notice I didn't say lose. I believe if you stay with G&S long enough, even a losing posion will become a winner. The problem is that the time frame may be much greater than you can afford. Also, I am talking only about the physical metals and paying cash.
If you are in options and futures, you can get your head handed to you in short order. All IMHO.

below 150 without dire consequences. Here's why: capital flight has gone into full panic mode in Japan. It was up by 1000% in 1997 over 1996. The May, 1998 outflows were so bad that the gov't has started threatening currency controls.

Currency controls are impossible for a trading nation like Japan, though, and the only other way they can keep money in the country is to raise interest rates to erase the huge differential between US and Japanese fixed-income investments, which are the only kind most Japanese investors will buy. Japan is in a recession, though, and interest rate increases would wreak havoc on the business community- and might cause a chain of bank failures that would drive the Japanese economy over the edge into a deflationary loss-of-confidence-driven collapse.

The Japanese are trapped.

Of course, the Americans are aware that their survival is tied to the fate of the Japanese. That is why they will have to keep bailing out the Japanese Yen, unless Congress gets riled up enough to intervene and force the Treasury Dept. to stop, but then I'm sure the Clinton administration would use the slush fund known as the Currency Stabilization Fund to do an end-run around congress and bail them out again, just like he did with Mexico when Congress didn't want to waste money on foreign bailout. Remember that Clinton is the consumate politician. The only thing he is any good at is politics, and no-one is more aware than he is of the fact that Nixon was untouchable until the economy tanked. Historians have pointed out that public opinion was overwhelmingly favourable toward Nixon, even though his scandals were well known, and the polls showed the public favoured keeping him in office in spite of his corruption- right up until the great bear market started. Within months the tide of public opinion changed, and Nixon was forced from office.

Does this remind you of the famous poll results showing that a majority of the public believes Clinton is an immoral person, but also that a majority believes he should stay in office? Believe me- Clinton knows why, and that is why he has had his cabinet focused on keeping the economy afloat with a single-minded, almost manic determination. The threats of economic retaliation from China are the real reason he's going on his state visit- and why he's putting up with humiliations that no politician would put up with under any other circumstances. He's in a no-win situation. If he goes he loses credibility with the public, and possibly causes catastrophic Democratic losses in Congress in November. If the Repubs. get a 2/3 majority in the Senate they can impeach Clinton all on their own. If Clinton doesn't go, he loses the chance to try to convince the Chinese not to pull the trigger on currency devaluations, which would plunge the US into a recession- and lead to a turning of the public opinion tide against him, emboldening the Repubs. to take action and the Dems. to shrink back from supporting him, to save their own skins. Just like happened to Nixon.

Folks, just like some other posters have mentioned, we're really watching something akin to the sinking of the Titanic here. It was started back in 1994 by the Chinese when they devalued. That was sort of like the grazing of the iceberg that hardly anyone aboard the ship even noticed. Then Thailand was forced to devalue and came under attack in the currency markets, then the rest of Southeast Asia . . . the ship is listing and the bows are starting to sink. The crew is now aware that the ship is in mortal danger and are frantically trying to take action behind the scenes without panicking the passengers.

It's all like a slow-motion tragedy, though, in which none of the actors who didn't make it into one of the too-few lifeboats have any real options to save themselves, just like the famous boat.

- Steve

I agree, when the boomers head for Gold, we should see a similar reaction to the upside.

There are to few Shares and to few Ounces for all of that demand.

HighRise

John: That article came from the World Socialist Web site. The author is a left wing socialist. Socialists and communists always have had a lot to say that is true about capitalism and its foible despite the failures of their own system.

Glenn: Must agree that new lows for POG do look like a good bet. Expect a selling cliimax this summer which will offer one of the greatest buying opportunities ever. Probably around XAU 55.

Skip: the first axiom of investing is DO NOT LET LOSSES RUN. I HAVE BEEN ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE GOLD MARKET FOR A LONG TIME, BUT HAVE NOT SUFFERED BADLY BECAUSE I FOLLOEED THIS FUNDAMENTAL RULE.

when you return from Japan. Just read a news report today indicating that consumer spending is collapsing in Japan. You might ask around about that as well.

- Steve

I am sorry to hear about your losses in the minning stocks. I only have
DROOY ( back when it was blyvor..something ) and am down about 40%.
However, I have not been spanked as bad in physical, buying all the way
down from $400 oz. and waiting to see what it will do from here and am ready
to pounce. When it bubbles over $300 I get ancy and think That I have
missed the bottom, but back down she goes! I will be a major buyer of physical at new lows cuz I believe the poop is gonna hit the fan sometime
in the near future. I only use capital that I dont need and can afford
to lose completly, but physical is not likely to go to "0"

Hang in there!

Best regards O.L.

not speaking for my employer

I HAVEN'T BEEN LOGED ON FOR THE LAST TEN DAYS SO I'VE KIND OF BEEN OUT OF TOUCH. I SAW THIS INTERESTING WEB SITE IN YESTERDAYS WSJ SO I THOUGHT I'ED POST IT. http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/AsiaChronology1998Q2.html

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/AsiaHomepage.html

How many times I have said this to myself. It's nice to hear someone else say it, also. Lately, I have been wondering, though: REALLY wondering if I might be missing something in my perception of The Gold Market. By that, I mean, just because $280 seems LOW and I don't really think it will go below that, doesn't mean that it can't. A year or two ago, I would not have believed gold would ever see $290 again, but lo and behold, it did the unthinkable. It sort of shattered my illusion, so to speak. So I now have a greater respect for the admonition "NEVER say never". I hope to look back a couple years from now and laugh at my "lack of faith".

AND if gold drops to around $283 spot this week the contract will be under $300. Wetting my shorts...er a...longs. Well, you know what I mean.

Stand on the shoulders of you know who...cherokee...oats, too.

Brother oris and JD...yes PMSM...I wait for gold but the grains call ( ed ) .

Tom

...you are NOT alone.

However, with the almost virtual certainty of Chinese Yuan devaluation ( now that the US government has proven ineffective ( or unwilling ) in its yen bolstering attempts ) , then you will be joined by a plethora of Dow/Nasdaq investors who are about to have their collective asses kicked. With virtually NO cash in any of the major mutual funds ( this being the end of the quarter and they are required to be fully invested ) ...with major US corporations stock rich yet relatively cash poor from ongoing stock buyback programs and the spate of acquisitions and mergers...then it seems fairly certain that the next dump will be of such magnitude as to overwhelm any short-term intervention by the government...at least until a much lower equilibrium is reached.

From conversations I've had with a variety of DOW bulls, I get the impression that these self-described ( smart? shrewd? ) investors are looking to make a swift early July exit since the consensus is that the market will tank dramatically in either September or October...ergo, the expectation is that the vast majority of investors will begin to ( escape ) at the beginning of August. So, the "shrewdies" believe that the maximum values you can obtain on stocks this year will be achieved between now and mid-to late July.

In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the great Dow/Nasdaq party!

Just celebrate, celebrate, dance to the music.

Party, party all the ti-i-i-ii-ii-ime!

Shake your groove thing, shake your groove thing...yeah, yeah, yeah!

Thanks.

F*

Thanks to all who responded to my earlier posting about the bleeding goldbugs.

While it is certainly true that I could have made decisions differently, those that I made were based on what I believed was prudent at the time. Hindsight is better than foresight, but far more expensive.

The day will come when millions of DOW investors will be bleeding, including some of the very ones who have shorted gold so incessantly and have wiped out people like me. While I will have little ( if any ) compassion for those who have KNOWINGLY hurt the goldbugs, my compassion will be great for the innocent who get slaughtered along with the DOW bull when the inevitable occurs. They will not be happy with those who have persuaded them to sacrifice their financial security for an overweight bull market. Don't certain greedy ones realize that the longer they put off the inevitable correction ( or crash ) , the worse it will be?

--Skip

Something like this can't be happening to GOLD...could it?????
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980623/lme_urged__1.html

...then just think how bad things are for the gold miners.

You can't help but feel a great deal of sadness for their collective plight. Their work is long, dirty, and hard...and they work in an atmosphere of insecurity and impending doom. Very depressing.

Thanks.

F*

I guess we haven't got the attention of the US$ bulls yet, load up another boat of gold and have them deliver it to Tokoyo Bay, if you don't have enough US$ to pay for the gold use US Treasuries.

I don't neccesarily think the Japanese are trapped. They just don't know what to do. Actually it seems like it wouldn't be all that hard to get out of trouble.

The first part of their problem is that their interest rates are around one percent or so when the US interest rate is over five. Money won't stay in the country until rates are raised. Printing more won't help.

The next problem is that their corporate tax rate is around 46% or so. No one will invest in business ventures if they can't get a decent rate of return in their investment compared to investing overseas.

So, raise rates and lower tax rates to compensate.

The other big problem is the bad loans the banks have. That will have to be worked out a little more creatively, but they certainly have the reserves in the form of US treasuries and such. It is a political problem and in the final anaysis the politics are perhaps the toughest.

quick! ring your local hedge fund, SELL YEN.

saying they expect this is bottom for YEN and expect gradual decline to 127...fancy that, exactly where Friend Of Bill dollar czar said it is going!.

HB

recent upswing in the DOW signals a further speculative rise. How high can we go? This lurching squealing beast stumbles on and will not die until all the excesses have been vented in their full fury....something has changed.
Gold is not rising with the DOW.
Gold is not falling with the DOW.

The dollar is not gold.

Gold to go lower, $246
Dollar to go higher, 156 yen
DOW to go higher, 9650

Patience is a virtue.

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) chairman Peter Fava earlier said in an interview with Reuters Television that he expected gold to reach $320 an ounce by the end of the year. Fava said this would be due to central banks becoming net buyers of gold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980623/markets_pr_1.html

Normal effect of state visit. Even by the Nazi Klinton. The dollar is due a break upon pronouncements by Japan. The Yen is due a break also, so gold should rally for 2 to 3 weeks. Everyone has given up on gold. The dollar is going to KILL U.S. exponts, and corporate profits. Dollar OVERVALUED bigtime. So are the markets. They will rally till Jul 23.

MINOR HIGH - MAJOR LOW.
Notes on my calendar tell me tomorrow should be a memorable day for gold.
One kitco pundit predicted a "minor high" for June 25...another predicted "a major low". Both prognosticators sounded confident in their science. Most likely they will both be wrong and Gold will just drift. Waiting for Golddough seems endless. it's a good thing that there is enjoyable conversation on this Kitco bench.

What a wonderful concept. Down in the trenches, waiting for the last wave. And L'Chaim! to you my friend. May you find victory for you and your house.

Jeshua Hamashiah!

going into 1999. The economy will statr to show strains . Long cycle will start to come apart little by little, like Klinton's teflon.

If you have an account with Lind-Waldock look at the new service called FutureScope. It allows you to figure out seasonal patterns on all commodities with % winners and losers in any time period. It's free until the end of the month and $12 a month to their customers after July 1. I looked up gold and silver, gold has an 80% chance of going down from today's close until 7/1 and silver a 70% chance.

GM

Glenn and the neural net are in a dead heat now.

skip, you have my sympathies. When I saw they were relatively undervalued compared to other stocks in 1996 I started averaging into PM stocks and of the money I invested in them am only up a few percent. But it was an honest averaging program and not gambling. Some stocks are up and some are down, depending upon when they were bought. But I've only used money which I could live without and wouldn't need even if it were profitable. While I have a few oozing paper cuts they are mostly numb and I've had some good buys like DROOY and SWC which I bought very well positioned. IMHO

I've made an observation. It appears that when an amateur like me gets involved in this market they access more and more efficient market information but their reflexes are still tuned to less and slower info. They mistake information for skill and are tempted to get greedy. But there is a long learning curve, sometimes decades where they must learn the difference between signal and noise so as to not jump the gun on their trades or miss an important turn. Which is why I remain a long term investor, don't try to time things and don't leverage stocks and bonds. IMHO

I would say good luck, but that's trite. So instead I'll just mention you in my prayers. Although the situation isn't the same I recall the famous 'weather prayer' General Patton requested so he could relieve General Mcauliffe at Bastogne. Hope I can pull one out like that one but don't bet on it. IMHO

ERLE, I don't think we should pat ourselves on the back just yet. Even though I'm out of dry powder I've still got that sharp #2 pencil, poised to jab at any shorts who get to waving their paper at me within bayonete range. "Aw nuts". ( $-^} )

Hey fellow bugger, don't ever feel like you are alone in this. Like you and most others here we saw the writing on the wall and the walls should have and likely would have come tumbling down by now. But as I am sure that you understand by now that manipulation in the POG has screwed us up. PPT and market manipulators have done great up till now, but how much longer can they keep it up?

Feels like things are coming to head soon and the fan is ready the shi to start flying.

Hang in there

You're a fine gentleman, and I will root for you too. - And all of the other RANGY buyers.
May a soft, refreshing rain fall in cherokee's state, and on Studio's parched soil.
I'll pray for rain, but prayer for goldstocks is a bit presumptuous.

cherokee probably would see rain as detrimental to his positions, though.

I didn't do my homework on Pegasus, I should have switched to another mining stock. MY FAULT I would less percent down. I view mining stocks as a leveraged play of PM's. If gold drifts down to where the mining companies are in trouble, I will take my losses and switch to all physical. After your post I was thinking of a more out of favor --
"viable liquid investment vehicle". I am encouraged by the little ad I see so often. The government of Canada will happly sell me a 1 oz. coin, with a little mark-up, and quarantee to price in the currency of another county. Buy--Low Sell--High

Not much action, though November soybeans are up.

I bought a real dog ( Zamora ) recommended by Strategic Investing @ an average cost base of 1.50. Everytime I check my portfolio via the net I see it sitting there @ 4 cents a share. I hope it does'nt disappear completely because it reminds me daily of the danger in buying jr au stocks. In all honesty I was lucky & made a large gain with BGO/AZS. At the time I thought it was skill, but realize now that it was blind luck.
Although I'm still well ahead I've given quite a bit back. I now think of anything less than the majors as strictly trading opportunities where I can make a quick 20-30% & hopefully limit my losses to less than that.
A case in point is Rangy I bought it too late @ 1.40 & ended up selling about 80% of it at 1.20

I really hope that the mkt turns for you & am sure that when you get back on your feet you will put the expensive lessons that you have learned to good use. Good luck.

Yen is 141.25 to the dollar at 9:01P EDT
N225 is 15106.09 at 9:29P EDT down 23.83
N225 on a wild ride tonight, opened higher, dropped below the close then shot for the stars, then tanked.

Nikkei - 14.74
Yen-Sept. 7143 -23

Japan Open at 8:00P EDT I believe

...but it's grim, real grim out there.

Thanks.

F*

Japan is open, down 8 points when I checked.

The yen is trading at 141.2 to the dollar.

Here are a couple of links you might use:

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?t=JPY&s=USD&a=1

...into the biggest block party in history again. Just drop some acid and join the great ride.

Reminds me of Itchycoo Park.

Anybody know that one?

"What did you do there?

I got Hi-i-igh.

What did you feel there?

I touched the sk-y-y-y

I'll you why--y-y-y

It's all too beautiful, It's all too beautiful, It's all too beautiful."

Thanks.

F*

Filed at 2:48 p.m. EDT
By The Associated Press
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Too many Americans are passive and disengaged. Too many feel powerless and lament: ``What can we do?'' And too many look to others to resolve the country's social problems, according to a report about the declining state of citizenship in the nation.
The report was released Wednesday by the National Commission on Civic Renewal, which spent 1 1/2 years tracking trends in political participation, trust, family integrity and other aspects of American life. The commission was led by William Bennett, former Republican education secretary, and former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga.
``Never have we had so many opportunities for participation, yet rarely have we felt so powerless,'' the report said. ``In a time that cries out for civic action, we are in danger of becoming a nation of spectators.''
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-Civic-Health.html

Does this article describe you?
- c

I would have to agree with Old Gold. Your losses now could get worse and you might find yourself in such a state of disgust that you'll sell all at the wrong time. Mourn your losses now and try to get over this spilled milk. It would help to sell off some now to force you to accept your loss. This will also give you some capital on the sidelines to come back with when the situation changes.

The S&P making a new high today indicates that the crash of the dollar is a ways off yet. Fighting an up tape is normally a bad move.

"The S&P making a new high today indicates that the crash of the dollar is a ways off yet. Fighting an up tape is normally a bad move."

Thanks.

F*

but in practice, they won't do the things they would have to do to save themselves.

You've pointed out possible prescriptions, but let's look at what they can really do.

::
::The first part of their problem is that their interest rates are around one percent or so when the US interest rate is over five. Money won't stay in the country until rates are raised. Printing more won't help.
::
::The next problem is that their corporate tax rate is around 46% or so. No one will invest in business ventures if they can't get a decent rate of return in their investment compared to investing overseas.
::
::So, raise rates and lower tax rates to compensate.

Bankrupcies among small businesses, especially construction and real estate companies are at an all-time high. Many of the surviving companies are deeply in debt and are not making a profit. Remember, it's only corporate profits that are taxed- a tax cut would do nothing to help these companies in the short term. In the long run a tax cut might stimulate demand enough to turn some businesses around, but many of these companies would be put into receivership immediately if their interest costs were jacked up by 400%, which is what the increase would have to be to stop capital outflows. The resulting wave of bankrupcies would destroy the economy.

The real problem here is delay, of course. The Japanese have let things get out of hand, and now they're too close to the edge to employ the type of supply-side economics that Reagan used so successfully in the US.

There is another very significant problem with higher interest rates and simultaneous tax cuts, though. The Japanese have accululated a *huge* deficit. It's greater than their current GNP. If they increase rates, they have higher interest payments to make. If they reduce taxes, in the long run revenue would probably increase, just like it did in the US under Reagan, and like it has here in Ontario under Mike Harris, but in the short term they would be on the verge of a devastating situation where they couldn't make the payments on the national debt. They would then have 2 choices: i ) borrow money to make those payments, which leads to the catastrophic ballooning of debt that has destroyed other nations in the past or ii ) defer payment or default on their debt- which would send shockwaves around the world that would be, as J. Dines puts it "financial Armageddon."

We're back to the same old problem. They've waited too long and done too little in terms of dealing with the national debt, and now they're too close to the edge. ( There's a lesson here for us Yankees, Canucks, Aussies and other who live in countries where the weak-spined politicians keep leading us ever closer to the edge of the Debt Cliff. )

::
::The other big problem is the bad loans the banks have. That will have to be worked out a little more creatively, but they certainly have the reserves in the form of US treasuries and such. It is a political problem and in the final anaysis the politics are perhaps the toughest.

The politics are exactly what have the Japanese trapped. The Japanese gov't has US$1.3Trillion in "reserves" ( if US greenbacks can be called that. ) If they could sell their treasuries off they could actually reduce their deficit to maageable levels and bail out the banks by paying off their debtload at some percentage and try to let the economy restart on a firmer foundation.

The US won't let them sell treasuries, though, and they have the defense trump card to prevent them from doing that, but there's another reason for the Japanese not to sell their treasuries. They know that doing so would destroy the only significant export markets they have left. Asia is kaput. The US is their biggest export market now, and nuking the US economy might even bring down Europe as well. Where would they sell the goods produced by their newly revived economy then? Remember, Japan is an island nation with few natural resources. They can't survive as a closed economy since they have to buy many raw materials, and that means exporting to get the foreign exchange they need to buy from the rest of the world. This is why currency controls are impossible in Japan.

Do any of you Kitcoites have some other ideas about how they can get out of this mess?

- Steve

Skip,

You have my sympathy from a fellow who invest ( an currently loosing ) in PM stocks ( I know it's no comfort to you ) . It takes some learning experience to survive this PM market. Here are some of my thought ( not fully followed by this fool ;- ( )

You should not let your investment in PM stocks ( or any other stocks ) to fall below acceptable threshold ( e.g. 15-20% ) . When you reach that level, get out, and come back when there is some "recognizable" up-trend. The main reason for this is the required percentage of the up swing to make up for your loses. E.g., lets take the following scenario: lets say you have $100K in PM stocks. If the stock goes down 40% ( as some suggested they've lost ) you are sitting at $60K. To make up for your losses, the stock better go up by 70% to end up at $102K - the minimum 2% gain. What it means is that it is easy to loose $40k but it requires a significant upswing to make up for your lose.

If you get out at 15% lose, you end up at $85K, wait on a sideline until it drops additional 25%, than buy and, God forbid, the same 70% increase would put you into $ 144.5 area - 44% gain.

Don't make your investment an emotional issue - it never works. Don't you believe any stories about "PM being a noble metal", etc.

I am close to my 20% lose and I am getting out ( for a time being ) . I don't like the way PM stocks react. You have a drop of 1% in a gold spot, XAU goes down by 2%. You have an upswing of 1% in a gold spot and XAU goes up 0.5%. Not a good sign, and all technical analysts will give you a dissertation about "resistance levels., etc." The main point is we are loosing!!

Don't you listen to any advice to use your credit cards and buy more!!! If you are bleeding, that won't help - you either invest or gamble. I hope you do the later!

As far as some advises to buy "physical" or play the "put and gets". All of you "advisers" remember that everybody is in different position. Some people can play only some money ( e.g., 401K or IRA and it may not let you to buy "physical" ) . Even if you could, it may limit your losses but it won't make you great gains ( if you don't trade and buy options ) Some predictions say Gold at $320 by the end of year. Big deal - it's only 8% over today's price. Not a big gain.

Don't take me wrong, I try to make money in this thing but lately I am loosing ( In addition to loosing money in Oils as I thought that the market would move much faster than it did ;- ( )

JMHO - Miro

I have bled here too.No... the financial world doesn't make sense. I wish it would make me financially independant which I suppose some here are. My Uncle had 8 million bucks in 1982 in Alberta and in 1985 he had lost 4 million dollars in Real Estate. Despite he was one of the few people to make money on Bre-X he was always unhappy about loosing the 4 mil. He died recently and he was still unhappy about the four mil. If I had half a mil I could retire and live like a king. This was my uncles advice " If you risk and you are right 51 percent of the time you will be a millionare." My parents memory is him being on the couch lying in fetal position after he had risked his house and his families future over and over again waiting for the deal to go through. HE SUFFERED EXTREME STRESS . He did terrrible damage to his heart. He didn't take his money to the grave. His family just wrote a cheque and took the cash out of his casket. I don't know if he would have traded his money for his health. However I digress. Gold is substantial and the market is in it's deatyh rattle. This is the last run up. Having anything left will be a bonus. The best laid plans of mice and men gan aft aglay.

Do I understand you to say that Japan's deficit exceeds their GNP? Do you have numbers on this? I have been reading quite a bit lately about Japan's financial situation, but don't recall seeing numbers to suggest that their deficit exceeds their GNP. In fact, I keep seeing references to Japan as the world's biggest creditor nation. It's embarassing to express these opinions without having hard numbers to present you with. I'm hoping the extroverts out there will enlighten both of us.

Anybody got numbers?

I don't believe that their national debt is very significant, either, though if they follow the "advice" they get from the U.S. that will change.

My belief is that the root of Japan's problem is that their government has no interest in responsible governance ... they are interested only in serving their ruling powers ( i.e. the local Mafia / business hybrid ) . Japan's fiscal policy for the last few years has been to do whatever it took to keep undeserving banks above water. I think the real solution to Japan's problem is to let their insolvent banks go under, as they should, and proceed with the survivors.

IMHO

I agree there are great difficulties to overcome, but not insurmountable ones if the political ones can be overcome.

Raising rate would not cause the small businesses to have to pay anymore interest on existing loans. Only on new ones. An increase from one percent to five percent would not be onerous for new loans if the tax rates were lowered enough that those desiring a loan for business investment could see that they would earn more than enough on the money in order to make the loan worthwhile.

True, there will be some bankruptcies, but those are going to happen anyway, only worse, if nothing is done. These would be more than offset by new money flowing into the business sectors.

If business could feel that tax cuts would be long term enough to make investment worthwhile then the money would not only not leave the country but go into building the grass roots economy.

The reserves held in US securites is more than an asset, it is a bargaining chip. If it is seen that the Japanses are backed into enough of a corner that they might resort to the desperate measures that desperate men are wont to do, then some way will be found to make use of their assets in a "sanitized" way. Just another debt for credit swap.
Problems only occurr is they try to directly sell the securities for dollars in order to raise cash funds. Before that happens other interested parties will want to sit down and talk about it first.

There is the possiblity that this recent rally in Nasdaq and S&P which is now pulling up the DOW is due to the Microsoft victory. This recent rally started with the Nasdaq and mainly from Microsoft. Everything else seems to have jumped on for the ride. This may fizzle out soon. We'll see. It's certainly possible that the frenzy can continue as people jump back in but each day there is more news about the fall out from Asia, not to mention Y2K problems and Clinton. There are so many factors that could turn this market down again. A summer rally is possible because of this mania but the DOW getting to 10,000 will be alot harder than getting to 9,000 IMHO

Bill Clinton is a dirtbag...it disgusts me and many more Americans, that he represent America to China...The Coward Erect and the Murdering scumbag...Mr. Tiananmen Square...Today at the beach...I sat with a little, veeeery little, S M ALL...tiny child and promised as the baby was on my knee that this world will...WILL...never become the property of dirtbags like them, of them or for them...



This entire thought is at an end...from an anger view-point, but only beginning as a promise to the infinity long after the horizon which is the gleam in a childs eyes...



Namaste'

My humble apologies. Just found a reference in my own files ( from late 97 ) that states Japan's national debt had reached 3 trillion $US and that interest on that debt was absorbing 61% of tax revenues.

Now, if they raise interest rates to try to stop capital flight, what could happen? If a 1% interest rate is costing them 61% of tax revenues to support and they raise it to 2%, seems like that would constitute "broke". I do not know if the 61% of tax revenues was based on a 1% payout on their debt. I wouldn't surprised, however. Mr. Klinton has put much of the U.S. national debt into low interest short term paper and we appear to be sporting a surplus ... but what happens if interest rates go up?

I just got a new job that's going to take me all over Asia and Europe over the next couple of years. One reason I took it is to get out into this world as it goes through this incredible period of change. What a time to be on the road! The other reason is that this job is more secure than the venture capital-based gig I had, totally dependent on the equities markets and "the kindness of strangers." More on the new job later.

Cheers.

-EJ

We've all made less than delux investments. I lost my shirt in 1987. Live and learn. Resolve to play it better next time.
-EJ

maybe that explains that shaved child I saw floating in the L.I. Sound today. Hmmmmmmm.

Slick Willy has been getting to me ever since he said that he tried pot but didn't inhale. I expected that next he would said that, well, yes, he'd been in the sack with Jennifer, but didn't actually, you know, stick it in.

ok, since we're all crying in our beer tonite, or our Bombay Gin Martinis, or Cuervo shooters, let me chime in. Yes, I know all about that "Sell if you're down 10 or 15, or 20%!" Why is it that you're usually down 40% by the time you realize you're down 15%? So I'm not the most conservative speculator around ( I hate that word "investor" - an investor, someone once said, is a disappointed speculator! ) I have found, over a few years of "investing," that when a position goes against you, and you are depressed, ready to hang it up for good, and your stomach is in knots because you've taken such a beating - that's the time to buy more. Load up! Whenever I've felt on top of the world, like I really know what I'm doing, is the time I should have sold out everything and gone to the beach. It's the contrarian emotions that help you make the right decisions, sometimes, and not the intellect. The intellect can justify anything, all the way up or all the way down. But the old kidneys and solar plexus often tell the real story of what's going on.

c'mon, man, don't tease us and hold out. what's the new job? sounds really neat.

or does it make any difference?

Kitco is showing POG up 95 cents to $293.10 bid at 8:18pm; however AFX news service at 9:49 shows POG at $292.10 bid in Hong Kong.

06/24/98 21:49 *GOLD OPENS AT 292.10-50 USD IN HONG KONG [AFX}

Sometimes I wonder if we should even be checking out Asian gold prices. Something to do I guess. G'night

Would that I might bring the moon to your home as a gift it would only be the wrapping....................Gulp to YA!...yeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

What about the interest they draw on their US treasuries?

Mike I know exactly what you are talking about

I't just that I am not sure if to put :- ( or :- ) face after my statement ;- )

- Miro

is the music I am listening to right now...He sings a song, "Boy You Won't be Satisfied That Way." Sums little willy up don't it...

My most KIND thoughts to you and yours...

GM

who has the bmi commodity quote url?

thanks...got a new lap-top, and left home with-out
my book-marks......iiamf!

cherokee....loving.the.grains......looking.for.internet.seeds..

ASB

A HUGE Island that is Long Gulp of Reserva to YA! The Coward Erect would have served nature far better just centimeters below a horses tail...eh!

GM

so what did he say?

I've conditioned myself to TRY to do the opposite of what the majority is doing. See it works like this, the lower prices go the more excited I get about being able to buy LOW, and if I own something as it goes up, the more nervous I get about when to get out while it's still HIGH. So when I see all the misery ( how come I never see it after prices are up? ) I just want to do the opposite of what Im hearing, Character flaw I guess.

MikeS - who is cryin the blues? not i.....uhuh.

for example. earlier this month when Cherokee was SCREAMING at peopleo to look at SoyMeal.... ( the charts were screaming too ) I took great notice. I also took notice in beans too but MOSTLY Meal. And I also took note ( bought ) Sugar too ( remember your famous Gold/Sugar relationship? ) . Now.........Today.

My Sugar calls are STILL holding there own and my Ocotber Meal 180 strike price that I purchased 4 calls for 225pts or $225.00/per are NOW worth 1090pts OR $1090.00 ( US ) . I sold two today at 1000pts and I still have two 'sitting around' waiting on the real move sooooooon. I now own two VERY ( relatively speaking ) expensive options ( $2180 ) and it I got paid ( roughly ) $1000.00 to make the transaction..............life is good? YES.

This is not a gloat ( and it is chump change to Disney and GSC ) but I did it because I did my homework. And I am buying more with the profits.

btw..... my Bean profits are too good for words.....sold some today also and am sitting on pure profit...........

Meanwhile....back at the Metal ranch......my Plat ( Oct ) is DULL and my Silver ( Sept ) is sloooooowly slipping........

AWAY..... ( $ )

Life IS goooood.........ohmy!

notcryinginbeerbutslurpingnoisely

and I am buying MORE Sugar sooooooon.

cherokee - eblm@mci2000.com mail me NOW.....right NOW! Beans in the TEENS?

GM

GM

William Jefferson Clinton is a traitor to these United States...I spit upon him and the very mention of his name...HE is a disgrace to the GREAT STATE of ARKANSAS...

Mtn Goat - in your Wed Jun 24 1998 17:37 you express hope that Joe Sixpack will start buying if enough of an alarm is sounded.
BUT THERE AIN'T ENOUGH GOLD that Joe Sixpack can buy to make a difference in the monetization of Gold. All the old and new Gold coins together are not enough. MAYBE BART CAN SELL A BILLION BARS to the Joe Sixpacks - he has 'em in a nice series of "denominations" 1 gr, 5grs, 10grs, 20grs, 50grs, 100grs, and 500grs. If Gold ever gets back over $400/oz we could trade these bars at $1 per grain.
BART IS OUR LAST HOPE -
For they ain't enough Gold coins ( see my Tue Jun 23 1998 22:49 ) . Somebody should start minting a lot of them real soon - in a nice demonination series like BARTS BARS.

AURATOR had a few posts in the last few days where he said the following:
"The more I think about it, the more logical it is to form and independant free state populated by the freemen of Kitco in noo zilundd?
No country on earth will manage to invade noo zilund. The Maori know that, and so do the pakeha.
The NZ Reserve Bank hold less gold than aurator
I am thinking of issuing my own currency"
GO FOR IT AURATOR!!!!!
YOU AND BART CAN SAVE THE WORLD!
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM YOUR KITCO FRIENDS WHO WILL MARKET YOUR COINS TO EVERY JOE AND JANE SIXPACK THEY SEE.

GM

Thank you. I figured that's what he said. This guy amazes me. I'll ruminate on this and vent later.