Anyone have a news release for whatever happened between 8 and 9 Eastern? GOLD UP!!!
We should have seen this coming as the negative vibes have really been humming the last few days!
Have FINALLY learned to just skip the useless posts although the pain coming through fairly screams and hate to see anyone in that bad a shape. Strange is it not that just about the time of all the tirades "our" POG decided to move?
I know that a couple of dollars up does not a real rally make, but there are some signs about: Someone else mentioned CEF. The folowing are a few of my favorites: TVX, ABX, CBJ, HM, KGC, PDG. ABX is already up 'bout 2 bucks in the last 10 days! CEF is my favorite for IRA bullion holding; KGC is my "hunch" favorite, And HM my major favorite: ALL are still above the Dec 97-Jan 98 lows even though the Kitco posting barometer has been worse lately than back then ( check for yourselves ) . Forget who mentioned PATTERNS, but they are alookin better! Keep the faith; lower POG will take breaking the Dec-Jan lows!!
Best regards to all and prayers for those who are hurting; Mtn Bear

GENTLEMEN PLEASE! This conduct is unseemly. Think, each of you, would you want your children to see you behaving like this?

Could you please e-mail me if you are lurking - and have the time to answer a violin related question?

Thank you,

steven ( user787748@aol.com )

Gold ( CMX )
Aug
294.9
297.3
294.7
297.3
+2.4
6/29/98
20:54
297.4
296.9

Good night all, another Storm is coming through...I am hitting the sack!

By the way, F* and others,
Individuals should not log on to this site while under the influence. Your irrational immature dialog does not impress us, quite the contrary, your words are a waste of our time, we are forced to watch you make fools of your selves when we have much more important matters on our minds - like our investments for our familys future. In the future, please take your problem some where else.

HighRise

Two weeks ago we had a surprise rally in gold, but the gold stocks did not follow. A $5 decline from $301 had the market, if Kitco is any indication, more bearish than at anytime this year. I haven't posted lately because of boredom with the market.
But I think the economic officials have made the decision to bring the dollar down and raise the yen. Maybe in the end they won't be successful. But I think they are a long way from quitting, in fact, just getting started.
If you'll notice, gold's decline from $301 has been very slow and orderly. It hasn't been in a rush to get away from $300 like it was early in June.
I think we have a good chance of a major rally here. The Barron's article called for gold to go to $325. Maybe we'll see that and an overshoot.
A positive day tomorrow will make the monthly chart look quite bullish. Hopefully this time we'll see the gold stocks rally with the metal.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

bow and think deeply...at dawn a salute...IN YOUR HONOR...we are a brutal bunch...truly it is so...you have struck a chord...

The polish glistens...a SALUTE in YOUR HONOR........

May you live FOREVER and the last voice you hear be that of a LOVED one...

No, I don't.
Sorry but the contents were emailed to me and I guess from another BB.

I'm sure the data is out there - it's just a matter of finding it.

Well, I logged on tonight hoping to find some interesting financial or current events commentary and the results speak for themselves. Then I remembered an article I'd read in the April '98 issue of "Central Banker News and Views". Yep. Right there on p.39 was an excerpt from a speech given by Thurston Howell III to a group of fellow bankers and venture capitalists.
"Gentlemen. Our last order of business tonight is to discuss our plans to deal with the internet web site known as "Kitco". As I'm sure most of you know, this is a discussion group for gold investors. ( hilarity ensues, then Howell continues after the last jeer has faded away ) . While I'm sure their plight brings a certain satisfaction to us it would be foolish to dismiss them out of hand. Many of our plans and motives are discussed openly and occasionally even accurately for all to see. ( a distinctly uneasy silence falls over the august crowd ) . What makes it worse is that this is a Canadian site but posters and lurkers come from all over the world. It never closes but runs 24/7. These individuals shun our paper and electronic currency and wish to return to tangible gold and silver as the commonplace medium of exchange. ( there are a few nervous laughs and much casting of furtive glances around the room ) . I don't think I need to tell you what THAT would mean to all we've worked for. Needless to say, this type of site attracts only the worst sort of person. Disrespect, even covert hostility, towards authority figures and governments in particular abound as do references to guns and the Bill Of Rights. Obviously this cannot be allowed to continue. Shutting down the site would be ineffective due to the "conspiracy" mentality of many of the posters. Besides, they'd just take it somewhere else. Clearly a systematic plan of disruptive postings is called for. A few well placed racial slurs and personal insults injected at advantageous times ( low POG ) should insure that the quality posts are drowned out in endless flame wars. Eventually the forum will decline due to lack of interest."
As the simplicity and effectiveness of the plan sinks into the audience,
scattered clapping gives way to thunderous applause. One man shouts "Brabo!" and is forcibly removed for questioning.
BBML

Re my previous post; a review of charts of most if not all gold mining shares will show that there is not nearly as far to travel NOW to get back above the 200 day moving average as ther was in the January time frame.

Remember Donald Southerland as the crazy tank driver in the Eastwood movie?? "I don' want to hear no negative vibes, man!!" Remember what they were after?? ALL THEM GOLD BARS!!! ( Sorry, tired and the name of the movie escapes me. Gnite All; Mtn Bear

Glad you agree with me on gold rally . John Disney laughed at me for calling for a higher Yen, gold rally. He thought I had sure-enough messed up. Erle did his knife catching ditty. Ha Ha. ( last laugh ) , at least so far.

Scared to rally. You don't think metal can get depressed do you? No of course not. But then..

The interesting thing about the quotes here on Kitco is not only that Gold is going up in Asia, but that it is going up all by itself. According to the prices ( Bart's Discussion frames page ) , all the other PMs are flat or down.

Kelly's Heroes ( ? )

Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...12:41AM...15694.91...+329.18...+2.14%

The pressure's off the yen for now. There's talk of a bridge bank. Unemployment ( reportedly ) did not go up. There's hope! The hog is in the tunnel, yet they see light. Someone threw a lit cigar in there... or something.

Next near-term crisis: China? Or are they playing, as usual, by their own rules.

-EJ

Come out, come out wherever you are. I got some salad here. And some crow. Quit playing with your toy mig, it's just a stolen blueprint of the real thing. Who peed in Farf*l's kool aid. Wow. He scared me man. Wierd.

Did somone step on someone's toes? Kitco has always been and will always be a forum for discussion amoung intelligent people. Some may have a different opinion, but I believe that each has a right to speak, with civility and respect for opinions of others. Many of us have suffered the blows of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, but on this forum, LIGHTEN UP AND RESPECT YOUR FELLOW MAN.

Yeah, Kelly's Heros - approx. quote by Sutherland as Oddball. Good flick. So is there any good chance that gold might touch another low ?

Blooper, I don't see a bull market in gold/PM's until oil market comes around. I wonder if we are being to one-sided looking at gold as a kind of currency ( which it is ) and neglecting its relationship to other commodities.

MY market call won't be any good without we make some money. So far Yen's up , Japan's up, now where's the money? Why do I feel Erle, and Dissey won't show tonight?

Y'all know that Indonesia now has an important secessionist civil war, too. Now what has me puzzled is why we have to go to BBC or Stratfor to learn of these things. AP carried this Yemen story as ONLY a riot, although the secessionists carried a foreign ( Saudi ) flad, and 4 villages were smashed in the gubmint's repression of the rebellion.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_121000/121967.stm

yeah

My call lasts till 20th-23 of July. Then Japan turns into a pumpkin.

There will be upgrades of oil drillers very soon, as bottom in in today in oil.

As per my post yesterday I repeat that I see big moves in the yen, the
Nikkei, and gold. Posititions must be unwound in these items. I like
you, see a big move coming. This is just like silver in Dec. 1978. It
was black with no hope of going anywhere. Not even the letter writers
were bullish. Just like now. I think it's going to surprise. The
charts on the gold stocks look excellent for a 6 month to 1 year move.
Hear's hoping. By the end of August we will know. If nothing by then
forget the rest of the year.
Thanks,GD

Into the night I go...all is well...MY BEST WISHES TO YA!

I will sell Oil on the 20-23 of july also. Along with gold and European stocks. This is a sucker rally to sell into strength on.

For Asia, and it may ( will ) go lower with the Chineese Devaluation. Sorry, Clinton, it's in the cards.

But i do put a great deal of thought into making money, and i love it so.
Investing is a great profession, unless you're wrong a lot.

Bottom is in on oil? With reserves as full as they are and all the producers in the marketplace? Do you know something I don't? Will Iraq invade again tomorrow? Will the royals in Saudi fall? Please explain...

Nikkei -25,000 to 27,000
Gold - $400 to 450
Yen up- no projections
Dollar down-no projections

The ralley in the Nikkei will look like the real thing, but it's not.
Don't know whether the gold ralley will stick or not but it is going
to look good. So I plan to be aware that no real values con assert themselves until positions are unwound and debts dealt with. That is
my opinion based on my assesment of history.
But for now I'm going balls out in the best opportunity I have seen in
20 years. I am wishing all of us good health and more wealth. Thanks,GD

Asia. Our markets will suffer an outflow of funds to Asia. Japan will begin a 3 year rise, with a corresponding drop in US dollar. Or something like that. The Japaneese pumpkin will transform into a beautiful flowing gown, while our tuxedo will become threadworn. First the stock market, then the bonds, as Japan repatriates funds.

With high gold prices. Gold will amaze us when the dollar turns, but 'pie in the sky' guesses are wasted efforts. Reasonably high is all we're going to get. Guessing and hoping is wasted effort.

...or Japan, Inc. They'll have to let us down easy when they start bringing their money home. After all, we are there largest customer and will be for a long while. Gold Dancer, you're right...best opportunity in 20 years. Wish I had the 'net in 79-80...wouldn't have lost everything I made. But then again, I probably would have. Good night, all, from Shawnee country...

This rally is not the one. It will turn out dissapointing. It is a susser rally. Sell into it. This is my opinion. I feel bad things are going to happen after this rally. Ror all investments. November 1 would be a possible re-entry. By then we will be 700 points under the highs. Boys i'm guessing here.

Free at last!

Feeling overtaxed? Does it seem that no matter how much governments crow about lower

deficits, higher wages and good times ahead, you never seem to come out on top?

It's not just you. Your taxes really did hit an all-time high.

Statistics Canada made it official last week, releasing a study showing more than one-fifth

( 20.5% ) of family earnings went to income taxes in 1996 - higher than ever before.

The average person paid $11,597 in income tax in 1996, not counting municipal taxes or

GST. Overall, taxes were up 4.2% over the previous year. In fact, the study found, real family

income after taxes was actually almost 5% lower than in 1980.

More bad news: even though incomes went up an average $662 in 1996, the various tax

hikes and a drop in transfer payments effectively left no more money in our pockets.

So is there any good news? Just this. Today you can go to work knowing that that starting this

week, the money you earn is your own. Saturday was Tax Freedom Day, as calculated by the

Fraser Institute - in other words, up to that day every penny you earned this year was gobbled

up by federal, provincial and municipal taxes.

Now, thanks to modest economic recovery and some government restraint, Tax Freedom Day

this year is three days earlier than last year, the institute reports. But the fact remains that, as

Canadian Taxpayers Federation spokesman Walter Robinson says, "We work half of the year

simply to satisfy government's never-ending appetite for tax dollars. The pressing need for tax

cuts is evident to everyone except the government of Canada."

He's right. All we hear from Ottawa these days is how Prime Minister Jean Chretien's cabinet

is plotting new and more innovative ways to spend their ( our ) budget surplus. This year they

blew it on the ill-conceived Millennium Scholarship Fund, which did nothing to address

Canadians' main concerns - taxes and jobs.

Earlier this month, a Sun/Roper Canada poll asked Canadians how the surplus should be

spent. Some 81% said the feds should restore funding to health care, but they stressed any

surplus should be split between tax breaks, debt reduction and social spending.

The message has been repeated in poll after poll and study after study - our taxes are too

high. So, what part of "tax cuts" don't the federal Liberals understand?

Ok you guys did it to me again. Hey I'm no lover of the Federal Reserve but Sharefin's entry of 29 June 98 @ 23:41 wound me up. Yes you have good items in it but really the foreign conspiracy stuff is a bit to much.

Where do I start on this, this crap about foreign bankers starting the federal reserve to destroy the US is nonsense! Paul Warberg is the evil Jewish Banker from Germany ( and only 2 years in America ) who had the idea of a central bank for the US in 1904 while he was working for Kuhn, Lock & Co. ( a Jewish Bank ) He wrote a paper on it and submitted it to the banking community in NY. A Mister Stillman of National City Bank ( a WASP bank ) read it and felt strongly enough to see Mr Paul Warberg about this idea. He told Mr Warberg that American Banking has done well enough with out a central bank and that Mr Warberg should keep such ideas to himself. Mr Morgan no doubt had similar ideas. Paul Warberg only defense to Mr Stillman was that when there was a banking crisis he might wish that there was a central bank.

After the Panic of 1907 Mr Stillman went again to Mr Warberg and personally asked to see his paper again, it no longer seemed such a bad idea. To make a long story short, the final legislation had implemented many ideas that Mr. Warberg said were completely unthinkable. One was that it should have any political control, that it should operate like the Bank of England that keep the Pound Sterling rock solid for two hundred year. That didn't happen. Also the American Dollar must never be backed buy US Treasury Debt, never! ETC, ETC. He was most disappointed with what came out of congress and was finally done. Note: Paul Warberg almost had a stroke when the English went off the gold standard, he was ill for days. He was a goldbug's, goldbug. The Warberg's were run over the pavement in Germany during the 30's, in case you didn't noticed.

Now you forced me to reprint this one entry I put out a few months ago. I didn't want too but you forced me to. To think that on Kitco someone gave a favorable mention about Father Charles ( Nazi Lover ) Conghlin! Where did you get this stuff Sharfin?


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My opus major on the Jewish Bankers.

Recently there were some excellent posts on gold by John Kutyn and some not so good on the House of Rothschild and central banks by others. After giving the efforts of these gentlemen some thought, I decided to give an input on these subjects. I'm inclined to hitch my fate to the precious yellow. There are some reasons for this, one is that the banks once before tried to suppress the price of gold during the days of the "London Gold Pool" in the early and middle 1960's. They cried "Uncle" after a long and valiant attempt to keep gold at US$35.00, then Uncle Sam himself called it quits in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window to foreign bank conversion of US dollars for US gold. To date no one on earth has proven that they were bigger than the markets, ask the Rockefellers, OPEC or any other cartel in the history of mankind. Control is a temporary thing. The DeBeers diamond cartel seems to be the most successful to date but their control stemmed from their control of S. Africa's diamond fields. Diamonds are not as rare as once thought nor are they only found in S. Africa. I suspect they will one day lose their control of the price of diamonds as production comes to the market place from sundry other countries out side of Debeers' cartel.

I remember reading in Barron's some years ago where Malaysia was dictating the price of tin for many a year, like DeBeers they gave their product's price a upward bias, to do so they had to keep tin stock off the market in warehouses. At the start it was good for the cartel but at some point reality was forced upon the tin cartel and to recoup costs, the excess stock was sold at forced liquidation prices. Tin dropped and the protected tin mining industry in Malaysia suffered for years until the imbalances from the hoarded stockpile was feed into the real economy. I wonder how many beautiful gems are being stored in vaults somewhere by DeBeers? There are all to many instances where powerful forces, usually working in conjunction with a government somewhere, are at odds with the market pricing mechanism. Usually cartels want a higher price, but in the case of gold the dollar cartel will always desires a lower gold price, the lower the better as increasing gold prices implies an increased production of US$ and possibly some doubt in the full faith and credit of the US Government. I believe the current low gold prices are the true measure of desperation the dollar cartel is currently feeling. In a free market, the US$ of the latter half of the 20th century could not compete with a barbaric relic like gold. In the end the manipulation of any cartel will always produce the opposite result than what the cartel had desired, often the correction is violent. Typically in the end the cartel gets in so deep that the final actions are acts of desperation by desperate men no longer concerned about maximize profit ( or personal power ) but rather are intent upon economic or personal survival. With gold and the US$ I believe history will show ( once again ) that no one is bigger than the markets.

The issue of gold being made illegal and a one world currency is forced upon the world I think would be very difficult to achieve on a global basis. A strong case can be made that China, India, and many former colonies of the Europeans nations would be unwilling to play that game, Japan too is getting tired of being The United States Government's little whipping boy. Lord knows these countries have more than a little blame for the condition they find themselves in, however, if their politicians are worth their salt, they will find someone to place all the blame on for their current problems. The long gone colonial masters would be perfect, blame it on the British! It will not be harder to whip up the battered masses in SE Asia against the "New World Currency" ( same as the New World Order ) than it is to whip up hatred for the CIA for selling crack cocaine in South Central L.A. The idea is ridiculous but as we are talking about cartels, well how knows but really who cares in South Central L.A. They're mad and upset and just need someone or something to strike out against, the CIA will do. Hate is as addictive as crack and many times as dangerous to civilized society.

I believe that the majority of the world population lies outside the control of the Rothschilds and George Soros. If the third world refuses to do business with this new Rothschild's inspired fiat currency and insist upon a currency that meets with their approval, it will be in their interest, and power of these Pacific Nations to insist upon a fair playing field when doing business with the Atlantic Nations. What would the currency gods of this new currency cartel do if they created a new paper standard and then over half of the world refused to accept it as payment? No doubt the currency cartel would refuse to sell cars, computers, steel, oil to Asia Inc, the only question would be if the boycott was put in effect before or after the high tariffs were in place to keep the Atlantic nation's cars, computers, steel and oil out of Asia Inc! The so called Third world is no longer an area that lacks world class production capability or the brains to manage industry, they can go it alone if need be for both basic materials or high caliber finished goods. The US can't get our allies to stop trading with the very sinister Iraqis, are the new masters of the universe going to pull out all stops for the crippling our former Asian Allies for not accepting this new fiat currency? I think not! There would be some difficulties for an unseen cabal to force a undesirable currency upon what will one day be a solvent S.E. Asia. Remember, as far as the current problems in S.E. Asia are concerned "they too shall pass".

The worst nightmare a puppet master can have is for someone to cut his strings. Reading Malaysian and other SE Asian nations news papers on the Internet, it seems that they are rather peeved at George Soros right now, I don't think he could get them to buy a used car from him let alone a new fiat currency. Think about this; the world's Muslims, Buddhist, Hindus, and Chinese have no connections, cultural or otherwise, with Jewish bankers that could possibly entice them to surrender control over their territories, economies, or national wealth. How would anyone push around billions of people who are economically formidable on their own right and now, in a very post-colonial way, will demand respect?

I think the House of Rothschild is being much maligned by people who have only a superficial understanding of how the real world works. The moneyed jews in the middle ages could tell the Rothschilds a thing or two about doing business in a hostile culture. You don't make King Richard do anything in Merry old England. But then, I suspect that the House of Rothschilds may already know this. Their is danger in wagering your capitol in a hostile environment, risk capital expect a premium. I'm not saying bankers, Jewish or other wise wont try to get the best part a deal, even to the point of taking people to the cleaners; they do. I would do it if I could, and if your honest you'll admit that you never called your broker to give back your capitol gains to bail out some poor soul that was on the losing side of that grand slam trade you made a killing on.

I think only a Marxist could be so willfully ignorant as to waste time in plotting ways to conquer the world: Lenin and that lot dreamed of total world domination as did the leader of the NATIONAL SOCIALIST PARTY, Adolph Hitler himself. If you doubt Hitler's socialism, you should read the diaries of the Nazi's Minister of Propaganda and Public Enlightenment, Dr. Goebbels. He had no problems with his beloved swastika on a field of red. The Nazi's solution for saving the world from this Jewish Banker's obsession with total world domination was WWII. Now some people have gone to great lengths informing us of a great problem with the Rothschilds and co-conspiring banks diabolical design of subduing the world with a one world fiat currency that will destroy all human happiness. Now I'm interested in hearing from those people just what is your solution to this Jewish Banker question? I would like to hear how you would propose to deal with this clear and present danger. Don't be shy, remember, Comrade Stalin's motto: "you can't make an omelet without cracking a few eggs". In the 20th century were you see big government and the ravages it brings, think socialism, not capitalistic Jewish Bankers!

If there is one item I would like to see feedback from readers of this posting, it would be on how a financial collapse in a country would differ from one engineered by Jewish bankers headed by the Rothschilds from say a financial collapse engineered by citizens of Western Democracies themselves by voting in politicians who only did what they were sent to the nations capitol to do: send home the pork at no cost to the voters. I don't pretend to speak for the world, just the U.S. and the problems we have over here don't require the House of Rothschild to explain what is going to happen. Since Roosevelt, in America, we have sent people into office that spent the US Treasury into the poor house and gave us tax breaks and incentives to entice the voters to do like wise. For politicians to have done otherwise would have ended many a brilliant political career. So what would the difference be? I spent many hours doing corrective maintenance on electronics, one of the first things I learnt was you can't fix anything until you can identify the malfunction. I put it to you that the malfunction in America is the morals of the voters who vote in people to office do for them that which they refuse to do themselves, be responsible. In America, we have placed layers of bureaucracy between us and our risks from medical emergencies to retiring in some comfort. "What fools these voter be". We gave our treasure to scoundrels who spent that and then pledged our children's future for the purchase of a ticket for to fools paradise. There use to be a cartoon in the US called "Pogo", and Pogo had a saying "we have met the enemy and he is us."

I like a good conspiracy theory as well as anyone, but the after 1,500 years of worrying about the Jewish bankers obsession with dominating all of Christendom, I for one have finally concluded that if this is so, then the Jewish Bankers they are truly the gang that couldn't shoot straight. For a change I for one would enjoy a conspiracy with the Knights Templars, after all the Templars have been underground since 1314 AD. Most people have never heard of the Knights of the Temple, but let me assure you they walk among us! You will not find any record of tax payment on Templar profits or reference of this organization in any nations where they now currently plot and scheme. Granted a Satanic charter from the Roman Anti-Christ himself, these warrior monks have for 700 years polluted not only every government on earth but also the Free Masons, Italian Mafia, and the Kennedy Family. Why wont a Kennedy ever do hard time, they're Irish Templars!

My apologies for lousy typing, spelling.

I just checked in prior to bed, and your'e out there confusing names again.

Just recall from last night; hanoi jane has little 'uns, and 50's JAYNE had biggun's.

Earl is a real OK gentleman, try to be civilised.

Good night to the spoonerism specialist.

And before you rip me up, I will say that I find your posts quite entertaining.

Regarding IAN...Canada Stockwatch shows the buyers and sellers for the
last 5 transactions. On Friday there was only one seller -- Odlum if that means anything to you.

The buyers were PI ( 50,000 ) , McDermid ( 999 ) , Levesque ( 30,000 ) ,
and Union ( 50,000 ) . I think I accounted for about about 240,000
of the shares traded being sales by Odlum.

Interestingly today the sellers were Union ( 40,000 ) and Levesque ( 20,000 ) . Looks like they were trying to make a quick buck. The primary purchaser today was First Marathon.

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

Thanks for the update on Silver Standard. I bought a little because I
figured there wasn't much downside left if silver prices start to rise.
Also have an order in for SSC.

Frustrated, but hopeful.

I made an error on the Federal Reserve as invisioned by Paul Warberg, he had insisted upon a totally independant central bank, no political control at all. He wanted it ran completly independant and buy bankers. This was how the Bank of England was ran for many year. The English read Adam Smiths "Wealth of Nations" and took it to heart. The English government of the 19th century was one I wish we had today

But I think Japan will finally dissapoint sometime around 23 July. This time of year is traditionally strong for Japan. I remember it from Pacific Basin fund at Invesco. You have a strong run for three or four weeks, then it's gone.

EB: If yer up 'n about: The candlestick you are referring to ( an open body ) just means that the trading session was up relative to the open. Filled bodies mean it was losing session. ........ The lines above and below the main body represent the extreme highs and lows for the session.

All of that is available in good bar chart but it's much easier to see with candlesticks. I also makes pattern recognition very easy as well.

The candles for SB show a very strong uptrend in progress. ...... candles are a strong aid but they must also be interpreted in the context of different time frames and along with conventional market indicators.

Top and bottom patterns are extremely useful and worth learning because they ocurr so frequently and some are about as close to accurately defining the trend as you will likely get. It's important to bear in mind that the patterns are only meaningful after a trend has been in effect for some time. ..... An excellent source book is "Beyond Candlesticks" by Steve Nison. It's his second book on the subject.

Unto you, MY home is forever a place where there are no doors..................welcome... TRULY you and YOUR's are a privilege...

Yeah man. Everytime i post you a kind one, You've got me before i can respond. How do you do that. I am new here. I've got everybody's country, names mixed up . I thought Disney was from SA. thought Haggis was from Scotland. What a mess. Thank God for Aussies.

for Farf*el, they would have been talkin about me all day and what a damed looney I was. Thank God for Farf*el.

You could put 1 in you'r mouth, 1 in your ear, and call long distance.

on gold and we have a rally just as summer follows spring. Go Farfel!!

Bloomer: As a miserable little grasshopper, I seek only to study at the knee of The Master. An intellectualoid "infinitum", such as yourself.
Your analysis, this weekend past, was so compelling that I placed a bid, this morning, for 10 June 00 380 calls. ...... Unfortuantely, now you've gone and screwed it all up by letting gold rise tonite so I won't get my fill tomorrow. Now I have to wait until next month.

How do you do it? If you tell me, I promise not to tell EB or JD. They are scoundrels, both and undeserving of the revealed truth.

You gotta admit that crazy call about higher Yen, Lower Dollar, and gold rally was pretty close.

Interesting comment that Kennedys were Irish Templars! The Knights Templar is an intriguing medieval organization that has its roots in Catholicism and its soul in Satanic ritual. I am currently reading several books on this group and have taped an interesting 2-hour special on the group from the TLC. Would like you to elaborate, if possible, on what you know about this clandestine group and how they are currently at work behind the scenes manipulating the Vatican, the Freemasons, the Kremlin and the British intelligentsia. Danke schoen!

ERLE: Forgive me for shouting your handle ( it's attempt to dispel confusion ) ...... but does the word 'dislexic' come to mind???

1. Seasonality says Japan strong in July.
2. Rubin supported Yen already. We were at that level. 3. Dollar overbought. 4. Yen oversold. 5. President promised China he would protect the Yen.

Everytime gold sells off for 3 or 4 months, it has a rally. That's fundamental, not technical!!

Raising Odds Of Y2K Recession

COMMENT: In my latest Y2K REPORTER #23, I raise the odds of a global Y2K recession from 60% to 70%. I can no longer say with any confidence that there is enough time to avoid a severe global recession. Progress is occurring, but not as fast as January 1, 2000 is approaching. I intend to stay open-minded: If I see that governments and businesses around the world are making faster progress and preparing contingency plans for inevitable computer problems, then I'll be happy to back off. For now, I remain an alarmist ( though not a doomsayer ) on this important issue. In my latest report, I also discuss the possible investment implications of a Y2K scenario.

PRESS EMBARGO: The contents of this report are embargoed to the press until Tuesday, June 30, at 10 am, at which time I will discuss my new Y2K economic assessment at a press roundtable in Washington, DC hosted by the National Association of Manufacturers.

Please forward this message as appropriate. Thanks to all the folks that continue to help me stay as informed as possible on Y2K.

Ed Yardeni

HOME: http://www.yardeni.com/

Just passing on net chatter.
It's not of my own opinion at all.
I'm just the courier boy.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Don't know if you read Dr Yardeni's web site http://www.yardeni.com
He has an economic forecast here that looks like financial Armageddon
strikes next year. I got really scared and depressed after looking at it.
The feds/banks are planning to drop interest rates to 4% to prop up the
stock market, but it looks like y2K will be the convenient excuse to close
the doors of large corporations and put its workers on the street. He
recommends that small investors stick with bonds, and shows that utility
stocks are already priced for 4% interest rates. Somewhere at this site I
picked up that this is forecast for an entire decade where the lowly bond
outperforms stocks. Do recommend everybody spend some time here, Dr Ed's
track record is outstanding.

re previous message: I just looked at Yardeni's forecast again: hmm.. stock
calculations are based on next year's earnings, so what it shows is that the
downturn starts this quarter and gets brutal in 4th quarter- I hate to say
it, but it looks like an October crash.

Let me offer an opposing view.
Are stocks are over-valued? Yup. Will they continue to become more
over-valued? Probably.
I did this analysis that I call the Big Boyz. It focuses on the companies
that at either the end of April or end of May had a market cap of over $40
or were on the DJIA. There were 85 of them.
At the end of May, the 5 year annualized return of the S&P 500 was 22.2%. Of
the 4,310 stocks in the data base I use, which have a 5 year track record,
the average annual return for the 5 years was 11.8%. However, the 5 year
annualized return of the Big Boyz was 30.1% Enough said!
Gersh stated, and Jim amplified, Follow The Money! Big Boyz, while being
only 85 companies comprise 40% of the total equity market on our exchanges.
I would agree, that by what ever historical measure one chooses to utilize,
GE, MSFT, XON and KO, etc. are dramatically over-valued, and 26% ( Dr.
Yardini's number ) would be conservative. Nonetheless, if you bet against
them, you are ignoring a fundamental and dramatic shift in modern investing.
Again, Jim stated it; the Index fund.
I read last year that some $10T will flow between the Children of the
Depression and the Baby Boomers over the next decade. Where do the
Depression Children have their money? In equities --- I don't think so! It
is my experience that they have most of it tucked away in bank CD's. Where
are the Baby-Boomers going to put the money. In bank CD's --- I don't think
so. I think this is reflected in the current mania of the banks gobbling up
the brokerage houses. They see what is coming.
IMHO, as long as Indexing is with us, the Big Boyz are going to continue to
out-perform. In life the rich get rich; the big fish eat the little fish. It
was one of those self-perpetuating realities. Yes, I do believe that
eventually it will end badly. However, I equally believe that it will be
some event that we are not considering at this time

I would caution that the logic many use of baby boomer savings underwriting
a rising market is flawed by one simple fact. Markets are an arena of buyers
and sellers, there is no value to any stock other than what someone is
willing to pay for it. There is a correlation to cash inflows and most
certainly the index funds have focused money to your BigBoyz ( which is a
great idea ) . Buyer beware! You can put all the money you want in a house,
but if the market goes sour you'll only get the best bid.


WARNING OF POTENTIAL MEGA SELL-OFF:
===================================
Several indicators are conspiring to make July a truly bad month! One of the
indicators I hold near and dear to me is the LESSER of new highs vs new
lows... that figure was triple digits this week, a VERY dangerous sign. And
on top of that, we have strong volume developing in the utility sector, a
sign of rats leaving a sinking ship. Mark my words ( and IMHO ) we will have
AT LEAST a 1,000 point sell-off in the DOW by the end of July... and it
could get mega worse.


SPECULATION - I bet that Japan will come out with a credible plan to tackle
the "bad loans" and give the FED the room to raise rates. A.G will issue a
statement that will keep the market in check as he has done in 1996. Rivlin
gave the signal on CNBC last week.
Workers start to strike for no real reason based on all kind of pretenses.
GM is a good example. This is inflationary.
The manufacturing economy is weak, but the consumer gained it's confidence
and oil will start drifting up. All a mixture of inflation.
Raising now by 1/4% will chill the markets several hundred points, get the
selfconfidence out of the window for several months, chill the buying power
of many and cool the consumer. Any delay will only make the coming slide
down worse, and leave the FED with less flexibility.
Then the FED can ease again to restart the manufacturing going and trim the
trade deficit.
A prolonged growth pattern can be achieved with stocks doing 20% better than
bonds - e.g. 6% x 1.2 = 7.2% a year and not 30% as it is now.
The casino effect is a pyramid scheme and not productive. Just look at the
market cap of AMZN, YHOO, and others or even KO MSFT, LU, CSCO, DELL.
Stock market manipulation those days is so obvious that I just wonder were
the SEC is and what are they doing about it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
An interesting take on this is the source of the money. On Dr. Ed's stock
market chart page there's some charts of central bank holdings and mutual
fund flows. He shows that the money flow since 1994 ( actually a lot longer )
is dominated by foreign money flows, and that U.S. participation has dropped
significantly since last October. The stats on the baby boomers is grim-
they don't have any savings or investment. They probably only help the stock
market by that 15% they pay on their credit-card debt. So the bubble is
being inflated from foreign money. This must pose an interesting dilemma to
Greenspan, who is dealing with a multinational stock market but only has
responsibility for U.S. economics. There is no law against large
multinationals printing huge amounts of money overseas and buying stock, or
creating derivatives, it's out of the jurisdiction of U.S. laws. The chart
shows the largest divergence between U.S. and foreign participation in 87
and 94. Foreign money was the last to get out.
Another interesting chart is the volume of debt held by foreigners- it had a
sharp reversal ( hard to read chart, but it looks like last october again )
and is headed down sharply.
I thought the reason the banks were buying the brokerages was so they could
cover their derivatives losses with the super-fast computer trading schemes
of the brokerages, the game was to buy the brokerages with the fastest
computers. I'm still hanging onto BSC as I expect them to be bought for a
nice price.
Pension plans buy the nifty fifty for one objective: they will buy companies
that have sufficient cash flow to offer dividends in an economic downturn.
So they don't care if the stock is a wasting asset as long as the future
dividend flow is sufficient to serve the future cash flow needs of the
pensions. The baby boomer pension will need periodic payments but will not
necessarily need a lump-sum return of principal. So I'd venture to guess
that deals have been cut with the nifty fifty and the pensions, the index
may drop drastically but the dividends will increase. Sorry, but I'm not
interested in following the big boys because the end objectives are
different than mine.
I do note that the U.S.-based pensions are moving to REITs in a big way, I'm
willing to follow that one. At some point the composition of the S&P will be
altered to reflect the change in focus.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ALL
Yardini has just poested his latest Y2k comments:
"The 70% Problem"
http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html
Well worth the read but it is a PDF file.
He gives his projections for weightings within the markets.
And he does so to hold a %%% of GOLD

Give freedom!!!!!!

Spent some time this week moving to Windows 98, adding a CD recorder, a blazing fast 32x CD ROM, and a 56K modem. I feel primed. My computer is leaving testosterone puddles which is a decided embarrassment when company comes to call. I dont care. Its like owning a muscle car - only much more cerebral.

I managed to put the last year of Kitco together in a coherent form and have succeeded beyond what I thought was possible. From 6/1/97 through present day, Ive got every day saved except five: 8/16 - 8/18/97 ( My fault ) , and 9/30 - 10/1/97 ( when Kitco crashed and Bart switched ISP. The whole year takes up just 103 MB and I can now put it all on CD ROM to be read by any computer. Do I dare set this loose upon Kitcoland?

The past is a wondrous thing, it haunts and vindicates, and reminds us that todays lofty perch was built on yesterdays gathering of twigs. It is also immutable and therein lies the rub. Who we are today was shaped by those we were then, and the process , while not always pretty, keeps pulling us forward, inexorably, inevitably, and irrevocably. ( the three "I"s ) . The past of this perticular place is as thrilling and chilling a ride as any Ive seen.

Some may wonder how I pull those posts from the distant past. I saved it all. Im a bit of a fanatic about backup and the only data I trust occupies at least two different forms of media, one of which must be non-volatile. The CD recorder is a gift from the Gods and I am thankful.

Damn computer stuff kept me in the house most of the weekend so, Sunday afternoon, I was determined to lace up the skates and put in a hard 20 miles. There was a stiff onshore wind blowing and I leaned into my task, always preferring to make the upwind leg the first half of the trip.

The Back Newport Bay snakes past my home; escorting about five miles of meandering, smooth-as-glass asphalt bike path all the way to the beach. The fist leg is directly into the maws of an ornery and harassing wind, exacerbated by a funnel effect caused by all that wonderful sea breeze being squeezed through the half mile gap between the 200 foot cliffs that rise on either side of the Back Bay. I dont know squat about geology and could not tell you what these cliffs are made of, but they look like a smaller version of the White Cliffs of Dover. It is a pretty cool place to skate.

But before the White Cliffs of the Back Bay proper, the route snakes past the campus of the University of California, Irvine, which abodes about a mile down the path from my home. This is a pleasant mile, a time to warm up and get the legs loose; gotta make sure the Achilles tendons are stretched and the quads are starting to heat up. Past a picturesque golf course, by the Athletic field of the University and.. Wait a minute here. Whats all this, then???? The fieled is loaded with scores and scores of nubile lasses bouncing and high-kicking with a bubbling, enthusiastic vigor reserved in all the universe exclusively to college freshman cheerleader wannabes. Yes. It was cheerleader tryout day at the College.. A mile down the road from my house.

I only skated 2 miles Sunday.

Thats all

Yes

PS

Any double entendre perceived by the reader in the fifth paragraph of this post, is entirely in the readers mind.

PPS

Followers of ANOTHER will be pleased to know that his every post is there; from his very first - in quite the Queens English - to the more mysterious ones of his later days. It is a fascinating evolution to see.

Indeey

OH Yeah, this forum IS about metals, yes?

A couple of interesting tidbits on PGMs can be found at:

http://www.MONEX.com/mt.html

I have nary an unkind word for gold either.

None

Naught

My smeller was good early Sun. morning. I think I got everything else wrong that night. I love this stuff. I get up at 5 o: clock to check the Asian, European markets, make some coffee, try to find out what's really going on. Christ you know it ain't easy. You know how hard it can be.
But it is fun, unless you ain't paying attention, and lose money.

Hey I used the Templars conspiracy as an alternative to a Jewish or some international cabal conspiracy as they both make as much sense. Meaning NONE. I think people who think their is some organized plan that was started some 80 years ago to destroy the US with the banking system is goofy!

How many times can a successful businessman transfer his life's work to a child? Not to often as typically the next generation doesn't care a twit of what dad or even granddad thinks what they should do. That somehow there is a plan that dates for four generations to manipulate the Federal Reserve to America's destruction is just not possible.

That the Kennedy's are Templars was only in jest. Hey the Templars were bumped off by Phillip the Fair ( ? ) as a debt reduction plan in the early 14th century. No I don't think they exist in a unbroken chain from the Templars of the HolyLands of long ago

goodnight EARLE, Earl, ERLE, and not least the twin brothers, skwirl, and squirrel.
Earle doesn't exist, though, he now hangs around with Disney's brother in Toronto.

with or without Y2k. That's in the cards next year. It's called a Bear. Heck, it's about time isn't it. This market is all screwed up. Time to clear the air, then have another go.

You are all peasants...and I am your SERVANTLet the Truth be KNOWN...

Love to you ALL.....................

http://www.dieoff.org

You wouldn't care what I called you.

Blooper: Bless you. You mean well. That's all that should be important.

You are a good man, I don't care what Erle says.

RJ okee

I probably got those dates myself, give me a while and I'll email them to you, if you post your e-mail address. Now, how do I get that CD for a Mac? ( I am serious )


How about doing a search on kookaburra? I get RJ's paper-weight, aurator's enquiry and a couple of others. But ....


Question for ALL

Is the 1 kg Ag Kookaburra the heaviest Precious Metal "Coin" ever minted.

Note, I had to say PM coin, as I was thinking of the stone money of Yap, that can be 6 feet in diameter, and rolled from village to village to pay debts.

Harami's, Doji's, Hammers - upright and inverted

Morning and evening stars and hanging men

These and more candlesticks offer the believer

I agree with ERLE that their best use is to locate tops and bottoms and short term key reversals; used as an adjunct to other indicators.

Sometimes candlesticks make sense to me

Other times it feels like casting the bones

Come out, come out, wherever you are. I got some crow salad for ya.

http://www.dieoff.org/page5.htm

Forgot to put my little smiley-face at the end of my request! : ) BUT they ARE an interesting group and quite modern in their taste for material wealth and power!

zzzzzzzzzzzz

RJ: "I agree with ERLE" ...... Aaaaaagh! Now we have two dislexic's on the forum. ....... Welcome back, in spite of it.

Akchoooly, while you were gone, I built a new machine as well. Tried W98 and ran into more problems than I had solutions for. Fortunately, the W98 UNinstall works real well. ..... so not all of this kickass hardware is being used to capacity.

Sharefin I don't mean to slam you but those ideas from the first part of this century have killed many innocent people and it is just scary that so many people still are willing to believe this stuff instead of looking at where problem really lies: in ourselves and how the US has voted in pork barrel politicians for nearly 70 years. I'm sure most Kitcoites will agree, one of these days someone is going to present a bill to America that we wont be able to pay. At that time everyone will be blamed but the American people. Hey this country took a wrong turn sometime after 1900.

Signing off for tonight

the late night crew is here.......good stuff this.

Earl/Erle/ERLE/.......Duke ( ? ) ....I'm getting confused. Just when I think I have the Earles figured out Cheerleader-Ogler-Lad gets 'em all confused.

RJ...I think Earl was giving me some Candlestick lessons not ERLE or Earle or Erle or URL.... ( huh? )

When you finish that CD ya need to make a few copies, eh?

Earl - thanks for the 'stick' talk. Good stuff. I will look into that book to find any ancient Asian secrets........uh huh. I love a good chart and a good key reversal.....AND a good formation like the ones forming for the PM's...................go PM's.

And what's wrong with a good chicken bone toss now and then?? As long as you have some good entrails to decipher too. And break out the darts too......and the ouiji ( sp ) board and the...........oh hell.........go gold.

And look at the action in that en tonight........hmmmmmmmm. All bodes well for goldie.....

away.....to read good kitco tonight



Sharefin: That was some URL. Sheesh. I think I'll call Kevorkian in the morning. Actually, the Hemlock Society is active here in Oregon. Maybe I'll call them as well to make sure the job gets done quickly. ...... That was definitely not a mellow, late evening, read.

EB: If you get the book - pay special attention to the section on "Tantric Sex and the Erect Candlestick" ........ or maybe it was "Erotic Implications of the Hanging Man Pattern". ...... I forget now.

Anyway, you'll know when you see it.

ANOTHER rally slips away as head for bed?

HK UP 1.9% ( anybody know why HK is kickin' China's @$$ tonight? )
Australia UP 2%
Japan UP 3%
Pakistan UP 6%! ( anybody know why Pakistan is kickin' India's @$$ tonight? )

CHINA DOWN 1.7%
INDIA DOWN 1.3%

It's not the angle of the dangle...............

Check out Pound vs gold. England is nearing recession, and has raised rates 6 times. Too many Asian connections. The chart says gold has bottomed, plainly. Not heading up. Our chart, dollar-gold is just thinking about bottoming. England soon will have a bull gold market.

Earl -

You know I always agree with you.

ERLE -

Didn't you get mad at me once?

Aurator -

I know of no heavier coin than the 1 kilo Kookaburra, I do however, know of a much more valuable coin of the same weight:

The 1 Kilo Platinum Koala

YES!

PS

This Windows 98 thingie has all sorts of cool animated menus that pop up in the most unsuspecting places. I like it..

And he packed it on up and he moved to Beverly........Hills that is.........OK....OK.....
Crude is pattern forming too..................hmmmmmmmmmm....
away.....to deliver more limes to OKEHOMEY.....they needs 'em and I need rum........ ( burp ) ........


Dollar printed in 1972 is now worth 27 cents.

Or so say these guys.

http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/ECONOMY/NEWINFLA.HTM

And I installed the Universal Bus ( great new plug...new to me anyway ) to plug it in.......
I found out that I don't have Win95b so I can't use my UniBus.....damn! Now I must either upgrade to 95b or just bite bullet and get 98. I understand 98 has some cool features ( using two or more screens at a time one for TV and one for kitco ) so I will most likely get it. Now all I need is to get that little fridge up here and install a growler pit into the chair and I don't ever have to leave ;- )
Can't wait to use the Cam......youse guys gotta see my new additions..........uh huh.
away$


bloop

The tremendous slump in the value of the South African currency against the US$ over the past week means that the gold price is at a high in Rand terms for this year. This may be the time to buy DROOY! See article at http://www.drd.co.za/


Now y'all don't forget to back up first, ya hear?
I am sure growler means something different in merkan cf kiwi

RJ
I got several of those days, just ask, you gottem.

Date: Tue Jun 30 1998 01:35
blooper ( Erle, ) ID#207145:
Yeah man. Everytime i post you a kind one, You've got me before i can respond. How do you do that. I am new
here. I've got everybody's country, names mixed up . I thought Disney was from SA. thought Haggis was from
Scotland. What a mess. Thank God for Aussies.

Nice info ,but where do you have a Gold v Sterling chart of any time period the best I can find is one month your help would be appreciated
are you UK based ?
regards

Go gold Physical

cpo

... and liked the part where the father hands his son-in-law his gold watch and says "use this for trade" ( during the panic ) . Would have been better if it was a handful of gold coins--but hey, it's a start. Also liked the part about a 1000 foot wave hitting the US east coast. Hope you guys have bought helicopters to go with your survival stash!!

Now what is this about gold/shares going up today? Went to the movies and came home a few thou richer. Now let's see--what's on tomorrow!!!

For Bloomer ..
Sorry to have slept through your moment of triumph.
Great short term call .. Suggest you take yen profits
soon as believe Rubin wont keep doing this forever.
Believe Yen will get stronger and maybe pretty soon,
but think it has more falling to do in meantime.
Agree with you on gold. Think this is a fake out
rally .. still have some stuff to sell.
Rand closed at 5.87 .. RSA stocks will on be in
serious gravy at this level. Hard to hold off on
Harmony .. am forcing myself.
You're not all bad, bloomer, suggest you invest your
profits in a used MIG. Then you'll be a standup guy.
John PissPee .. that's not bad .. got a ring to it ..

Thought you were out of Harmony ( HGMCY ) waiting to buy it at 3 1/4. Glad to have your company. I thnk the elevator will soon be going up.

Spock 22:53
Yes! you are right

"Have just read in "The Australian" that New Zealand is heading into recesssion because of the Asia crisis. In response, the government is going to cut spending.Dumb.
That is the exact policy which turned a bad recession in the 1920s into the Great Depression of the 1930s. Keynes lives. If you have a lack of demand recesssion, you spend money and run a deficit. Counter-cyclical policy. God help the New Zealanders. "



Earl
How goes the spiral now? Permit me an imperfect memory rendition from a JP Donleavy novel ( forgotten which one ) a long long time ago

The circus continues,
More crazy than cruel.
One of us soon will be spinning
on the top of his tool


Junior
Great inspiring post last evening, thank you.



The lady of Shallotaurator

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980629/dlr_ends_q_1.html

Jims ..
I am still out .. Its not easy..

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/markets_eu_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980629/uk_s_brown_1.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/06/29/international_news/japanecon_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/japan_chin_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/dlr_yen_da_2.html

Gold once again has a move in it's price because of rumor and speculation. The difference is that this time it's UP.

Rumors of permanent Japanese tax cuts to be announced, among other things was enough to lower the yen/dollar ratio and stimulate gold prices. No intervention required.

There are some slight indications that the dollar itself may be softening. It will be of great interest to see how it is faring against other currencies in general.

Flight money is fickle and once the tide begins to turn it can go out just the way it came in. This latest rally in gold may just be another short term "sucker" rally, but these little rallys are starting to come closer together and without major drops in between.

For what it's worth, gold has tied it's wagon to the currency markets so it is to the currency markets we shoukd now turn our attention.

It is also of some interest that gold made a pretty good move without much movement in the other precious metals. Once again gold leads.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/asia_marke_1.html

June 30, 1998

Hopes of a Permanent Tax Cut Boosts Tokyo's Nikkei by 3%

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Tokyo stocks continued to rally Tuesday, with the Nikkei 225 average surging more than 3%, lifted by a stronger yen and a report suggesting the Japanese government was considering permanent tax cuts --
something the investment community has wanted for months.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong stocks ended higher, bolstered by the firmer Japanese currency and an improving outlook for the local economy.

In Japan, the blue-chip index rose 464.54, or 3.02%, to close at 15830.27, adding to Monday's 155.69-point advance. Winners overwhelmed losers 10 to 1 and 576 million shares changed hands as the Nikkei posted its fifth-straight gain. The index has gained 775.67 in the past five sessions. Shares rose on hopes for further government steps to stimulate the economy and clean up the nation's ailing banking system. Investors also looked ahead to the expected announcement Thursday of a government plan to clean up the banking system. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the Japanese business daily, quoting Taku Yamasaki, a senior official of Japan's
ruling Liberal Democratic Party, as saying the LDP will consider implementing permanent tax cuts, including an income-tax cut, after the July 12 Upper House elections.

The newspaper said that Mr. Yamasaki, the head of the party's powerful policy affairs research council, made the remark during a campaign speech in Fukuoka city in southern Japan Monday. It was unclear how much Mr. Yamasaki's reported remark was because of political posturing before Japanese parliamentary elections on July 12.

In a separate Nihon Keizai report, Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto was quoted as hinting that Japanese and U.S. monetary authorities could once
again jointly step in to stabilize the yen. The Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve intervened on June 17, after the dollar hit an eight-year high against the Japanese currency. In late Asian trading, the dollar
was quoted at 139.95 yen, down from 141.67 yen late Monday in New York.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index gained 82.39, or 1.0%, to finish at 8543.10. The key index opened higher and continued to move in positive territory, touching an intraday high of 8660.13 in early afternoon session, before giving up some gains.

"The strength of the Japanese yen is clearly supporting the market. Sentiment has taken a dramatic turn ( for the better ) as it looks like the
Japanese government is quite serious about resolving its financial crisis," said Alex Tang, research director at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International ( Hong Kong ) Ltd.

In Sydney, Australian shares closed higher Tuesday, led by a 9% jump in News Corp. on word the company will spin off 20% of its Fox Group. The All Ordinaries Index jumped 47.3 , or 1.8%, to 2668.

yen. Lease rates are virtually unchanged, and forward rates ditto.
The gold carry is still on.

Donald: Do you think the Japanese are near to selling their bonds?
Someone must take the US dollar down before we end up in a depression.

Strat: Gold bulls predate rises in oil prices by upwards of one year.
Check your charts.

John Disney: So far I have held off buying Harmony too, but I don't
think it will see $3.25US. I think Harmony anywhere under $4 is good.
Do you know how many shares hgmcy issued to take over Evander?
If you use he old sh issued total, hgmcy bought at $4, means you
are buying 100 million oz of gold in the ground at about $2 per oz.
That can't be right!

What think you guys downunder; has it bottomed?

I read a convincing article that said the Japanese banks can not sell their U.S. bonds because they use the high interest ( compared to Japan rates ) to mask losses from busted borrowers.

The Japanese government may be a more likely seller of U.S. bonds but the rumor is that they are selling Canadian and Aussie bonds first, as those currencies have dropped. They will hold the U.S. bonds till last.

All the best to the missus, from downunder.

One of these days, mate, a 'sucker rally' is going to turn into an explosive upmove that will leave many sitting like stunned mullet. You gotta be init ta winit. I would love to see a slice through 300 like a hot knife through butter. Go back and look at ANY ten year gold index chart and you will see we are in the bottom 10% on all. Sure a lot better than buying at the top ( like our DOW/S&P mates ) .

You are right about the currencies.IMHO, the worm has turned. The intervention the other day was an extraordinary event that just may have been the final turning point. We had the typical reaction back the other way. Unbelievably, most gold bugs are sitting there on the sidelines, shattered and despondent, not recognizing the importance of recent events. This may very well be the exact time we have been waiting so long for. In hindsight we may well say "How could I have been so blind? There it was, staring me in the face."

June 30, 1998
Precious Metals

By AARON LUCCHETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

On his first trip to the plate as a full-fledged analyst, Peter Ward hit a home run. Four years ago, the 31-year-old Lehman Brothers analyst was working as a product manager for a jewelry manufacturer in New York's Greenwich Village. Now, after some years as a research assistant, he has
topped nine veteran stock pickers and grabbed the most successful portfolio in the precious-metals sector.

Sound impressive? Sure, but sticklers will note that Mr. Ward's picks weren't all that precious. In fact, the estimated return for investors who bought his recommendations in 1997 was just 1%.

But most commodities sectors fared poorly last year, and gold was epecially dull. Besides Mr. Ward, none of the other analysts following the beleaguered sector managed to muster any gains. Indeed, the median estimated return for stock pickers in the industry was a 36% loss -- the worst performance among the 50 industry groups in the All-Star Analysts Survey.

Gold suffered last year from a proliferation of competing financial instruments and a general climate of low inflation, which tends to favor interest-bearing securities rather than hard assets like gold, silver or copper. Through 1997, the price of gold fell 21%, and at one point touched an 18-year low.

The relative success of Mr. Ward's strategy in 1997 came from its negative stance toward gold. It wasn't until the end of March that he recommended any stocks, and then he limited his bets to two: Barrick Gold
and Placer Dome. He pulled back even from them after a few months -- downgrading Placer in August and Barrick in late October. Not only did he cut his losses, but he also picked up some positive returns: Under the
rules of the All-Star survey, an analyst who has no "buy" recommendations at a particular time is credited with the return on Treasury bills.

Since then, Mr. Ward has advised his clients to stay out of the sector altogether. He predicts gold prices will hover near low levels of $300 an ounce through this year and 1999. "Gold is the relic of the past," says Mr. Ward, who is slightly more bullish on his weekend hobby, golf, and another sector he covers, fertilizer firms.

Some analysts see brighter prospects. Michael S. Dudas, 34, second in the group with an estimated 20% loss last year, foresees gold prices rising in 1999 and is currently picking the same stocks he did last year, Battle Mountain Gold, Newmont Mining and a small Idaho silver mining company, Coeur d'Alene Mines. Mr. Dudas, who moved to Bear Stearns earlier this year from UBS Securities, says the gold price will probably stop its slide near its January low of $277.50 an ounce and then average about $300 an ounce for 1998.

In third place, Salomon Smith Barney's Leanne Baker, 45, scored a solid 10% return last year with her recommendation of Battle Mountain Gold. Unfortunately, her portfolio return was hurt by substantial losses in
higher-cost mining companies, such as Pegasus Gold and Amax Gold, as well as less-than-stellar years for blue chips Newmont and Homestake Mining.

Overall, her recommended stocks lost an estimated 33%. "Last year, holding onto any gold share was not a recipe for success," the four-time All-Star says.

But last month, the San Francisco-based Ms. Baker returned from a trip to Peru's archeological treasure, Machu Picchu, sounding an upbeat note on gold prices. Predicting a rebound in annual average price to $350 by next year, she cites expected production cuts and stabilization in European gold selling.

Gollum @ 06:25 - Your comments are interesting and tend to agree with the closing of Mr.ANOTHER's post on USA Gold yesterday as follows:

I think all should talk to these new analysis about the "supply and demand" for dollars, not gold.

To close I offer the thought of a banker : "I would not sell gold for dollars when, as a district Central Banker, I could soon use it to purchase more Euros from the ECB. As all new local continent debt will now be issued in Euros, it is better to allow the new future Dollar / Euro exchange rate to pay old dollar debt. Yes, the coming American dollar inflation will make "good work" of this European debt problem, perceived by many to be "insurmountable! Even now as I ponder this thought, we may not even sell gold for Euros, as it is a true "exchange reserve" of our ECB! As oil will be priced in Euros, and a low dollar price of gold no longer necessary, perhaps, with it's future dollar value" increasing, I will purchase more gold with dollars for future payment of debt?"

We watch this new gold market together, yes?

Thank You

Another

June 30, 1998
Rand Jitters Hit Industrial Shares In South Africa, but Gold Benefits

Dow Jones Newswires

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- South African industrial shares endured another losing session Monday, responding negatively to a fresh thrashing of the rand.

However, gold shares and companies with large income exposure to foreign
exchange benefited handsomely from an initial 6.4% dive of the rand against the U.S. dollar.

In an opening burst, the dollar soared to a record 6.1835 rand in local trading from an opening level around 5.9000 rand to the dollar. But this fresh wave of selling halted abruptly soon after it broke upon a thin and nervous market.

Helped by a rise in official interest rates, the rand clawed back more than half its losses in extremely volatile trading late Monday in South Africa, when the dollar eased to 5.9650 rand, still substantially
higher than 5.7853 rand late Friday locally.

Banking Shares Hit Hard

Financial-services stocks were among the hardest hit by the latest outbreak of turmoil in the currency market.

Commercial banking group Nedcor slumped 8.4%, or 11.40 rand, to 124.60
rand, and rival ABSA Group fell 7.1%, or 2.65 rand, to 34.70 rand.

Bancassurance conglomerate FirstRand eased 50 South African cents to 9.10
rand, recovering slightly at the end of the session after unit First National Bank broke ranks with its rivals and announced a two-percentage-point rise in its prime lending rate to 22.25%.

The move came after South Africa's repurchase-agreement rate -- the cost
the South African Reserve Bank charges commercial banks to meet their daily borrowing requirements -- rose to 20.08% at its daily tender from 18.31% Monday.

At the close of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the All Share Index had
tumbled 1.5%, or 106.10 points, to 6768.20, the Industrial Index plummeted 2.2%, or 178.90 points, to 8082.90, while the All Gold Index leapt 3.9%, or 31.20 points, to 836.

Share dealings were relatively light. Futures speculators largely controlled trade flows with local institutions and foreigners sidelined. But the size of a company's foreign-exchange income stream largely dictated share-price movements.

Mining and industrial conglomerate Anglo American vaulted 4.7%, or nine rand, to 202 rand, gaining by a push from its gold division, whose income is almost entirely derived from offshore dollars.

Anglogold, slightly more than 50%-owned by Anglo American, jumped 5.5%, or 12 rand, to 232 rand. The world's top gold producer -- a merger of
a handful of Anglo-controlled gold miners -- listed its shares Monday on the Paris, London and Johannesburg stock exchanges.

Anglo associate De Beers Consolidated Mines, a global diamond cartel, rose one rand to 104 rand.

Metals Sectors Gain

Heavy industries group Barlow, which maintains substantial interests in the U.K. and Australia, climbed 6.3%, or 1.90 rand, to 32 rand.

Metals groups also took advantage of the dollar's early rampaging gains.
Copper producer Palabora Mining soared 18%, or five rand, to 32.50 rand.

Platinum shares rallied, with global heavyweight Anglo American Platinum
advancing 5.5%, or 3.30 rand, to 63 rand and rival Impala Platinum Holdings ahead 6.5%, or three rand, to 49 rand.

Traders reported late-day selective buying in industrial shares, identifying local mutual-fund managers as the likely purchasers ahead of the quarterly close-out Tuesday.

thanks...I'm a newbie. Where do I find these charts...golden eagle?

I have been looking at the 233 day moving average for spot gold. It is in a steep decline since February. One rally attempt a few weeks ago was stopped dead in its tracks at the 233 M/A line. As the average steepens even further a new rally attempt about here seems likely to have an easier time of it and you could be right. Most times that gold crosses the 233 line it has a sharp move; both up and down depending on the trend of the move.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/u_s_to_int_1.html

A$ up strongly, as is gold. They seem to move in tandem. We are viewed as a resource country and rise and fall with commodities. A$ POG is pretty much unchanged--remarkably steady. Au up, A$ up and vice versa. We had a big move up a few weeks ago ( in POG ) when the A$ tanked, and have now settled at a plateau about 10% higher ( A$ gold price ) . Anyone who has bought physical in Oz between Dec. & Apr. is well ahead. Gold shares are another matter. They have factored in 250!! Makes them an even better bargain.

Nice action today. Will it continue?

I just checked my data to see where the 233 day M/A line is now. It is $305.92.

For Rhody ..
I dont know how many .. your number is right ..
It was 200/70 = say a little under 3$ an ounce ..I
would assume its still around 3 ish. A bit cheaper
than ABX at over 100 an oz..
Im at a loss .. I dont know whether to bounce around
playing the Rand or buy golds. A move to 6.4 would
put the rand gold price to an all time high of 1950 or
thereabouts .. like a gold price of $415.
I still think gold will come off .. but the only
fundamental reason I can see to support that opinion
would be the recent posting on IMF sales .. these
guys may be broke but not want to admit it.. so we
talk about helping poor countries .. yeah sure.. more
likely they have to sell gold to pay their salaries.
Renewed IMF sales talk could shake the dollar price.
I think we still have to pass that hurdle .. the talk
went away but has come back via the Bank of England
jerk.
By the way, the rand had come back to 5.87. I think
the hedge fund buys when it says it selling .. a
cunning stunt.

From Business Day

June 30 1998

Slumping rand a boon

for gold mining

companies

Paul Vecchiatto

ANALYSTS are reviewing their outlook for gold mining shares, which have been scorned by investors in recent months as the metal's dollar price remains stubbornly below $300/oz.

While the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's all share, industrial and financial indexes gyrated as much as three percentage points a day as the rand lost ground against the dollar, the all gold index has emerged relatively unscathed in thin trade.

Yesterday, however, the all gold jumped more than 31 points or 4% to 836, while the other indices slumped along with the rand. The gold index started the year at 801 and peaked at 1 101 in April when gold hit $313,80/oz.

The rand gold price mirrored the movements of the all gold index until June 5, when they separated suddenly as the local currency began its freefall against the world's major currencies and investors were distracted by financial and industrial share woes.

Reuter reports that SA gold mining companies are expected to turn in vastly improved performances in the third quarter of the year as the weak rand means significantly higher rand-denominated income on gold sales. Gold is traded and priced internationally in dollars, and the rand has fallen by more than 26% against the dollar this year and by 13% in the last three days alone.

The rand gold price rose to a high for the year of R1806/oz yesterday, from R1 404 on January 1.

Since mining costs for local producers are borne largely in rand, a depreciating currency means higher margins of return. With a recent wage agreement locking in mining salaries for at least another year, wage costs are not likely to rise in the near future.

"At the current exchange rate, no SA gold mining company should be making losses on a cash-cost basis,"

said David Hall, gold analyst at Merrill Lynch Smith Borkum in Johannesburg.

For most SA gold miners the second quarter ended on June 21. The majority of the rand's depreciation has come

in the past three days, meaning much of the benefit of the currency's slide will be reflected on third-quarter financial

statements.

"The spot price average for the quarter would have added about R1bn to the revenue stream of gold companies, and

that's prior to hedging," one analyst said.

INet-Bridge reports that Rice Rinaldi Turner & Company gold analyst Tony Cadle said the gold industry had undergone a major restructuring which improved productivity while lowering costs.

Cadle said US markets were worried about the extent of their exposure to the Asian crisis, which would cause a

general cooling of their equity and bond markets.

"Should the US economy begin to wobble and the dollar weakens, then gold and the related shares will definitely

become a key part of an investment strategy," Cadle said.

Very interesting. Any significance to the 233 m.a.? Seems an odd number. Most watch the 100 and 200 day m.a.s--and I often think that charts work because people are watching them and 'make' them work.

PS--when the 1000 foot wave arrives, I hope that you and Mike Sheller are visiting Disneyland ( not World ) .

I like to use the 233 because it is a Fibonacci number and it seems to have a better record of significance in all markets that I watch. You are not likely to find me in Disneyland; ever. Mike could be in danger though.

The last of my indicators ( XAU/AU ratio ) showed the downtrend broken on 6/25, so I went long then. NO idea how much or howlong up we're in for on the up side. I find it comforting that the Ausie dollar is showing some strength. Now if we could just get the other resource based currency going ( Canada ) , maybe this thing would turn for real.

Our forsight vision is dim, our currentsight vision is worse, but our hindsight vision is with the eyes of an eagle.

The failed gold raly I spoke of was on April 23, 1998. Gold closed at $313.90. The 233 M/A was $313.96 and the 200 M/A was $295.80. So you can see, at least on that occasion, watching the 200 day would have faked you out. The 233 day was right on. It is not always that easy.

All: It is great to see sanity has returned, and our more rational friends from downunder are at the Kitco helm. Amazing what one poster run amuck can do.

What I have trouble understanding is two items:

First, Europe is still struggling with an attempt at economic recovery with a desire for easy credit post the belt tightening period of the EURO launch. Hardly the time to sell dollars and buy gold.

Secondly, how can Rubin etal really effectively intervene to manipulate the value of the US dollar, given that the US dollar is being traded at 1 trillion plus per day ( derivatives ) ? All RR can do is tip the scales a bit.

Thirdly, we have seen so many false recoveries come from Japan it is hard to believe that this current rumor of Japan reducing taxes is a sign of real constructive change. What really needs to happen is for Japan to let a great number of bankrupt corporations fall -- to cut out the dead wood. Perhaps this is it -- probably not yet.

So, my take in all of this is that gold will not really move until Europe is on the path of a solid economic recovery, and Japan is on the mend. Till then, the US dollar and the US markets remain strong as a 'flight to safety'. One alternative scenario is a gold rally ( in US dollars ) if US commodity prices take off -- not likely for months -- given the long term cycles of commodity prices.

Comments, anyone?

Here's a bit of background on last night's action:
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/700.1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/markets_pr_1.html

Any upmove from these levels puts us into rarified air on Bill Buckler's gold charts. $300 is a key level and according to Donald $305+ also ( 233 day m.a. ) .


Gold in US$
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgold.html

Gold in A$
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html

Market's are driven by perceptions, hopes, fears, and dreams. There was a fundamental change in trading sentiment after the US/BOJ intervention.

It was like an old time western movie where one good guy holds off a lynch mob by pointing out that although they might be able to take him he's going to get the first couple to step forward, so who wants to be first?

It was a psychological shock to the yen bears to go from one instant of feeding frenzy to a point where there was was sudden intervention. The US hadn't interevened in another currecies behalf for years and Rubin and Greenspan had been making noises that he yen could sink or swim on it's own. Now, here they were getting their collective heads handed back to them on a plate.

The intervention came on the access market during thinest possible trading when the maximum bang for the buck could be achieved. It was because we weren't out to throw muscle around we were out for psychological impact.

After the intervention the yen/dollar only crept slowly back to where the yen bears had been hurt. It stalled as it reached the 142 area.

We are now in a state where ther is a definite upside risk to yen bears but little downside risk. Upside rumors have little effect but downside glimmers of hope can move the market as we saw last night.

It's all done with smoke and mirrors.

The air has certainly freshened on this site this morning. Thanks all.

Your link to the commentary on Rubin's speech is very interesting. There are a lot of lines to read between there, and very bullish ones I might add. It is clear Rubin and the US treasury department have a keen insight in where the problems are at.

Australian dollar up to 61.47 U.S. cents.

Thanx heaps. Nice to know there's some support out there.

Gollum: As a Goldbug, I hope you are right. And -- as someone who sincerely hopes that Japan is on the mend.

It certainly does not take much intervention near a turning point.

You make a good point about the rate at which the dollar/yen ratio has recovered. If you are right ( this is not something I know ) this would suggest that we are indeed at a turning point and that the Yen is oversold.

Making a physics analogy, a system far from equilibrium will recover rapidly if it is pushed. A system close to equilibrium ( close to a turning point ) will recover much more slowly when tweaked.

Sunrise this morning.
Red clouds and fresh morning wind.
New day new light, Zen!

Bloomberg tv has gold at 296.50...hanging on to late night gains.

What do you make of this ANOTHER dude? He strikes me as intentionally cryptic and that makes me suspicious. He does, however, have some interesting ideas.

Paul says he staying under the couch today. No need to come out. The DOW will be a dog on its own.

-EJ

The Gold price expressed in South African Rand terms is at its highest level this year. This is good for SA mines - quarterly results are expected to show improvement over the previous quarter. See story at http://www.drd.co.za/ - Now is the time to buy DROOY!

And not just physics, the LeChatelier principle applies to ALL systems in equilibrium. Push on it and it pushes back. If it is a system close to unstable equilibrium it will push back, but it if you push hard enough the card house will collapse.

Gallileo pushed on the system and damn near got burned at the stake. Many others weren't so fortuneate.

Equilibrium systems - be they physical, cultural, psychological or trading trends - are whwt they are because of their restoring forces and stability mechanisms.

Heat the corner of a tank of nitroglycerin with a match and the the tank will conduct heat away from the corner so as to reduce the effect of the heating. Heat it with a torch....

Rumours abounded last week of some Central Bank purchases. Has anyone got any hard news on this??

Live Long and Prosper.

Ruben is smart and fleet of foot, but he faces a series of daunting challenges. All eyes are on AG today. Away to another sunny day.

Tell Paul he can come out and bark all day if he wants. The DOW will celebrate today.

ANOTHER is kind of cryptic at times, but he does help to stir ones imagination. Without some stirring from time to time our thoughts grow stale and we begin not to see what might not otherwise be obvious.

For instance, that little dimple on ones upper lip just below the centerline of ones lip. Everyone has one and you would presume that something everyone has ought to have a name. After all, we have a name for the nose, the ear, the navel, but what about that upper lip thing?
Do you know it's name?

I do.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,...28.79!!!!

The price-to-earnings ratio of the Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index: hummmmmmmm.

Can you say accident waiting to happen?

Back when I was a wise-ass kid, when asked my hobby during job interviews I'd say I was a "peridramophilist." What was it I said I liked to do in my spare time?
-EJ

approaching 299 at this hour.

Tuesday June 30, 7:48 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-Yen rallies ahead of Japanese package

By David Christian-Edwards

LONDON, June 30 ( Reuters ) - A yen rally ahead of a Japanese bank stabilisation package
due later this week brought hope to western policymakers on Tuesday and took some of the
pressure off emerging market currencies.

At midsession the dollar stood at around 139.80 yen, down from 141.86 on Monday and
levels above 142 last week.

European stock markets were mixed after their general surge on Monday, with attention
focusing on a two-day policy-making meeting at the U.S. Federal Reserve due to start later in
the day.

------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 1138 GMT
MARK 1.8069/81 YEN 139.58/68 STERLING 1.6648/58
GOLD $296.25/296.75 +2.85 ( pvs PM fix ) BRENT $13.36 +0.17
FTSE 5862.7 -21.80 CAC 4,258.78 +10.54 X-DAX 5904.5 -29.23
------------------------------------------------------------

The consensus among market operators was that worries about the Asian crisis would lead the
U.S. Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, despite policy-makers' fears that the U.S.
economy's strong growth could rekindle inflation.

U.S. stocks in London were mostly unchanged in quiet trade. S&P futures traded on Globex
were around 2.5 points above their estimated fair value, signalling a small gain for Wall Street
when it opened.

Among key emerging economies, the Russian stock market steadied after a 6.1 percent plunge
on Monday. But the rouble eased further to 6.22 to the dollar from 6.19.

Russia's finance minister Mikhail Zadornov said he was optimistic that parliament would quickly
approve a string of laws which form the nucleus of a government plan to deal with the country's
financial crisis.

The South African rand, the latest victim of international speculators, recovered further to
around 5.93 to the dollar, well above its lows of 6.15 on Monday, as the central bank
announced a modest rise in official repo rates. South African shares eased.

Traders said markets were keenly awaiting Thursday's unveiling by Japanese authorities of their
plan for a ``bridge bank,'' which would grant new loans to corporate customers of failed banks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, addressing students in Bangkok on Tuesday, said
Japan held the key to Asia's recovery, but he warned that there were still tough times ahead for
Thailand and the rest of the battered region.

He said the United States had long been deeply concerned about the weakness of the
Japanese economy and the yen.

``The focus of the world now is on Japan effectively addressing its banking issues in a manner
that gains the confidence of markets.''

Speculation that British interest rates may be raised again to squeeze out resurgent inflation
continued to underpin the pound, which traded at around 3.0115 marks.

The London stock market was around 0.4 percent lower, following a flat performance on
Monday when it refused to participate in what was seen as a general global market surge.

``Business has slowed a lot,'' said one dealer. ``The domestic scene is worrying us but trade is
very thin.''

In Paris, the CAC 40 share index was around 0.3 percent lower, as traders took profits after
Monday's record gain. But optimism about the rallying yen and a fall in the French
unemployment rate were said to provide a floor for values.

French-Belgian banking group Dexia ( DEXF.PA ) rose 3.1 percent to 827 French francs as the
market reacted well to its acquisition of a stake in Spain's Banco de Credito Local.

But shares in Eurodisney ( EDLP.PA ) fell by 3.6 percent to 11.90 French francs apiece
because of a strike at the theme park.

Swiss shares were little changed as the market settled after hitting news highs on Monday.
Shares of the merged UBS ( UBSZn.S ) stayed in the limelight, rising 11 Swiss francs to 561 on
the back of several recommendations.

In Frankfurt, German shares slipped on profit-taking. Veba ( VEBG.F ) led the decliners, falling
by 7.15 marks to 121.35, after its chief executive said it would be ``very difficult'' to reach 10
percent.

Tuesday June 30, 7:33 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-Japan bad loan moves invigorate Asia markets

STOCK MARKETS.....

Change on the day... TUE 30 1126.GMT.

Market......Current....Prev Close...Pct Move

Indonesia....445.92......431.23......3.4%

Malaysia.....455.64......450.77......1.1%

Philippines..1760.13.....1723.37.....2.1%

Singapore....1066.66.....1085.15....-1.7%

Thailand.....267.33......271.20.....-1.4%

Hong Kong....8543.10.....8460.71.....1.0%

Japan........15830.27....15365.73....3.0%

Taiwan.......7548.81.....7535.73.....0.2%

Korea........297.88......298.60.....-0.2%

.....

.....

Change since start of Asia crisis....

Market......Current....July '97......Pct Move

Indonesia....445.92......731.00.....-39.0%

Malaysia.....455.64......1230.00....-63.0%

Philippines..1760.13.....2815.00....-37.5%

Singapore....1066.66.....1981.00....-46.2%

Thailand.....267.33......569.00.....-53.0%

Hong Kong....8543.10....15055.00....-43.3%

Japan........15830.27....20000.00...-20.8%

Taiwan.......7548.81.....9000.00....-16.1%

Korea........297.88......770.00.....-61.3%

Toward An
Islamic Gold Standard
-Part II-
by Cedric Muhammad
-Guest Columnist-

Click Here for Part I


By forming an International Islamic
Central Bank and issuing its own
gold-backed currency notes the Islamic
world could establish the most stable
money system on earth, but would it be
credible? Yes. The enormous mass of
the Muslim nations--10,450,000 square
miles, a 1 billion member population, the
combined Gross National Product of all
of the Muslim nations and the blessing of
having much of the world's oil supply
running beneath its feet--would give the
Islamic gold backed-currency all the credibility it would need.

Most people outside of political and economic circles do not realize that since
1945 it has only been possible to purchase oil with U.S. dollars. This creates a
guaranteed demand for dollars that no other currency in the world can claim.
The fact that oil is denominated in dollars ( meaning you have to use dollars to
purchase oil ) means that people will always need dollars if they want oil. This is
one factor that make the dollar so unique.

The oil-producing nations ask for dollars because the dollar is the strongest
currency in the world, but nothing is stopping the oil-producing nations from
asking for another currency in exchange for oil. If the oil-producing nations with
significant Muslim populations were to ask for their oil payments in the form of
an Islamic currency, all the strength and purchasing power that the dollar gains
from being the oil-producers' currency of choice would now switch to an
Islamic gold-backed currency.

Andrew Gause of SDL Inc., one of the most widely-known rare-coin dealers in
America and author of "The Secret World of Money", told The Final Call, "An
Islamic bloc that could get together possibly with the non-Muslim OPEC
nations, regulate their flow of oil and only accept payment for oil in a
commonly-issued currency, would really be a power base, a power base that I
don't think could be competed with."

But Gause stresses the goal of an Islamic-issued currency is not to control oil;
the goal is to establish a strong and stable currency that can be used to finance
industry, technology, the building of hospitals, the promotion of entrepreneurial
development and to establish high-quality educational systems. Oil wealth is
only a foundation that derives from the fact that everyone in the world will have
to use the Islamic currency in order to purchase oil.

"If you are the entity ( International Islamic Central Bank ) issuing this currency,
you demand that oil be purchased through your currency; and while the rest of
the world is seeking to get your currency notes in order to buy oil, you are using
these notes yourself to buy other assets. Any asset you choose. The currency
would instantly have value because the other countries will use it to buy oil," he
said. Gause's point illustrates how the Islamic nations who are mostly known for
exploiting natural resources could use their currency as well as the their wealth
from oil to become world leaders in every field known to man.

Economist Jude Wanniski of Polyconomics, Inc., believes that one industry
where the Muslim world would immediately become a world leader would be
the high-tech international finance industry. Describing the pivotal role that
Muslim nations would obtain in this field, he said, "If ( the Islamic economic
bloc ) went on a gold standard and it had the only currency in the world that was
guaranteed in gold, and the Islamic nations kept their currency values fixed in
terms of gold, while the rest of the world's currencies were becoming less
valuable in terms of gold, the ( Islamic Economic bloc ) would get more business
in banking. Imagine Belgium is going to send butter to Brazil and Brazil is going
to send coffee to Belgium. The Brazilians and Belgians will be drawing their
contracts up in the Islamic currency, so the banks in the Islamic community
would get bigger and bigger and bigger and they would be able to get a
percentage of the contract between the Belgians and the Brazilians as payment
for serving as financial intermediaries.

"The reason that the Belgians and the Brazilians would be using the Islamic
currency is because they would not have any risk, neither the Belgians nor the
Brazilians would be risking an inflation or a deflation. There would be an exact
transfer of butter for coffee. Neither side would get blind-sighted by a sudden
change in the value of the currency. This is what the world has not had since
1971 ( when America went off of the gold standard ) ."

Realizing that Muslim nations could create wealth outside of using their natural
resources, like oil, is critical because the Islamic nations' reliance on oil for
wealth has been used against them, even to the point of blaming them for the oil
shocks of the 1970s. While it is widely believed that the oil-producing nations,
Muslim and non-Muslim, caused the oil shock of 1974 by raising the price of oil
by 400 percent over a three-year period, some believe that there was another
cause for the dramatic rise in the price of oil, a cause that the media, economists
and politicians have been slow to mention. Mr. Wanniski and Canadian
economist Robert Mundell believe that the rise in oil prices was caused when
the dollar's link to gold was ended in August of 1971 by Richard Nixon. They
believe that when the dollar went off of gold there was no signal to guide
monetary authorities and that these monetary authorities made errors that
increased inflation and this inflation spread throughout the world. In other
words, in 1971 the Federal Reserve had already created an excess supply of
dollars, most of this excess supply of dollars was used to purchase gold, driving
the price of gold upward, then some of those dollars went toward driving the
price of oil upward.

This was the case because the oil-producing nations saw the dollar being able to
purchase less gold and , therefore, questioned why they should accept
less-valuable dollars for their oil. They saw inflation becoming a threat to their
wealth and wanted more dollars in payment for their oil. This was a natural
reaction. This was no conspiracy on the part of the oil-producing nations
designed to hurt Israel and America, it was good business.

Mr. Wanniski is not alone in his belief that the oil-producing nations were made
a scapegoat for the dual mistake that America made by first creating an excess
supply of dollars and by secondly severing the tie between the dollar and gold.
Colonel Fletcher Prouty, former Chief of Special Operations for the Joint Chiefs
of Staff and creative adviser to movie director Oliver Stone for the movie
"JFK", told The Final Call that he was present at a March 1973 meeting
arranged by the White House at the offices of the National Defense
Transportation Association for representatives of the largest
petroleum-consuming organizations in the country--railroads, airlines, utilities
and trucking firms. At this meeting a White House spokesman informed the
group that a study had found that the world's petroleum supplies were running
out and would be depleted by the year 2000.

They were told that the meeting had been called to alert the major consumers of
petroleum that before the year was up, prices for petroleum would rise by 200
to 300 percent. Prouty believes that the group was being prepared to accept
the price increase that was coming but that the real reason for the price increase
was being covered up. Prouty didn't have to wait long to see the price increase
or the story that would be used to explain it to the public: "Then as if right on
schedule, an Arab-Israeli war broke out in late 1973. Before long it was
announced that the Arabs had instituted an oil embargo and that available
supplies of automobile gasoline would drop around the world, causing prices to
go up."

The common theme in Wanniski's and Prouty's explanation of the oil shocks is
that the Arab or oil-producing nations were blamed for a price increase that
was inevitable and caused by U.S. economic and foreign policy. The lesson to
be learned from this time period as it relates to an Islamic gold-standard is that,
any signs of economic solidarity coming from an Islamic economic bloc could
be perceived by the U.S. government as anti-American and anti-Israel and
could easily be portrayed in the media as such. These charges could easily be
dismissed by emphasizing that the gold-standard benefits all who link into it
because it provides a light to all who are trying to navigate in financial darkness
and ambiguity. Then, nations such as Israel and America could trade with each
other or another nation and eliminate the instability that would be associated
with using their own currencies. They could denominate the transaction in
Islamic currency because that currency has a stable value as a result of being on
a gold standard.

As the 21st century approaches, if there is to be any real hope of making the
next century a century of peace, then there can be no disruptions in the
economic realm. The first step toward that can be taken with the establishment
of a stable unit of account that the world can follow for guidance. The
establishment of this stable unit of account can be accomplished by the
re-emergence of a gold standard. This would eliminate the dangerous periods of
inflation/deflation that destroy trillions of dollars and the debtor/creditor
relationship.

It would be nice if America would lead the way in this direction, but as has been
the case of late, when it comes to leadership, America is missing in action. Well,
why don't 1 billion Muslims who have a spiritual and moral prohibition against
inflation/deflationary cycles known as Riba al-Fadl, step to the forefront? Why
not begin dialogue and strategic planning that adds the necessary economic
component that will truly enable the 21st century to become the Century of
Peace?

( Cedric Muhammad is a contributing editor to The Final Call. Responses
can be e-mailed to Cedric Muhammad ) .

Obviously you were enamored of floccipaucinihilipilifacationism.

Same old ad being run @0940 hrs-Atlantic Canada Time on CTV. His concluding remarks were "Unless u r an Armagaedonist, please don't buy
Precious Metals. Same as previously posted-No sponser for ad. Makes ya
wonder. For all those unaware of previous post regards this topic-
determinations were made that Fidelity Investments r the culprit/s.

toward an
Islamic Gold Standard
by Cedric Muhammad
-Guest Columnist-


What is a Gold Standard? A gold
standard is a fixed definition of the
value of one unit of currency in terms of
a certain weight of gold. For example,
the U.S. gold standard in 1934 was
that one dollar was equal to 1/35 of an ounce of gold. In other words, $35
equaled one ounce of gold.

A dollar is an example of a unit of currency and since dollars are used for
counting purposes, the dollar is a unit of account. Every economy must have a
stable and reliable unit of account, if people are to enter into contracts with one
another. It is particularly important to have a stable unit of account or currency if
the contracts that people are entering into are over long periods of time. This is
true because if people don't know what the value of their own currency will be
10 years from now, they will be discouraged from entering into contracts that
will take place over a 10-year period. Unstable currencies hurt real-estate
purchases in particular because most mortgages are over long periods of time.

The maintenance of a unit of account is the most important aspect to a gold
standard because it generates trust. By giving a legal definition of what a dollar
is, the government proves that it does not intend to cheat the people. Well, from
1717 to 1914, the Bank of England maintained a gold standard; from 1914 to
1971 the United States maintained a gold standard. When England and the U.S.
went off the gold standard it marked the first time in thousands of years that the
world did not have its major countries linked to gold or silver or both.

From 1971 to the present, the world has witnessed the worst-ever fluctuations
in the value of its currencies. These fluctuations are called inflation when the
value of the currency diminishes in terms of gold and deflation when the value of
the currency increases in terms of gold. The arena in which the disastrous effects
of inflation-deflation are most clearly manifested is in the banking arena where
loans are made. If you had taken a loan out when one ounce of gold cost $600
and paid back the loan when one ounce of gold cost only $300, then you paid
your loan back in dollars that are much more valuable than the ones you
borrowed. You have just become the victim of deflation.

If, on the other hand, you took out a loan when one ounce of gold cost $300
and paid it back when one ounce of gold cost $600, you paid back the loan in
dollars that are much less valuable than the ones you borrowed. Your bank has
just become the victim of inflation. If the value of one ounce of gold had been
fixed at $400 dollars during that same time period, you would not have had to
worry about inflation or deflation, because the dollars you used to pay back the
loan would be the same value as the dollars that you borrowed.

Unfortunately, the above scenario is not fiction, it actually occurred in the early
1980s when gold went from $600 an ounce to $300 an ounce. It was the banks
that profited from this period of deflation. No matter who the debtor was
attempting to pay off, the result was the same-they were crushed by the
fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar. It is important to remember that since every
currency in the world is tied to the dollar, these disastrous effects spread around
the world.

For years many have called for the U.S. to return to the gold standard. Ronald
Reagan considered it but never signed an executive order that would have
instantly re-linked the dollar to gold. Many believe that it will take another
financial panic to get America and the world back on the gold standard. Some
believe that even a stock market crash wouldn't do it. But with the year 2000
approaching and the European Economic Community uniting all of Europe
under one currency, the Euro, and with the Asians openly discussing the need to
unite and possibly form an economic bloc, the call for stable currencies is being
made again. Surprisingly, it is not the Christian West making the most recent
attempts to pull the world into currency stability. It is from the world's one
billion-member Islamic Community where the loudest cries are being heard.

In 1997 when the Muslim nation of Malaysia's currency, the ringgit, fell, Prime
Minister Mahathir Bin Mohammed publicly blamed George Soros, one of the
world's largest currency speculators for causing the fall of his country's
currency. ( A currency speculator is a wealthy investor who places large bets on
which direction, up or down, the value of a country's currency is headed.
Sometimes the bets are so large that they, in and of themselves, force the
currency's value to go down or up ) . He also blamed the practice of currency
trading, calling it "unnecessary, unproductive and immoral." He added, "It
should be stopped, it should be illegal."

In addition to Malaysia, the Muslim nation of Indonesia also suffered an
enormous fall in the value of its currency due to currency speculation and
trading. These currency fluctuations have caused billions of dollars and many
jobs to be lost. But, is it possible to end currency trading, as Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohammed has suggested? Yes, according to economist Jude
Wanniski of Polyconomics, Inc.

Mr. Wanniski, a current advisor to 1996 Republican Party vice-presidential
nominee Jack Kemp, told The Final Call, "It is possible to end currency trading,
but only if the whole world is on a gold standard. If the whole world is on a gold
standard, you essentially have one currency. Karl Marx said it best when he
said that, when the world is on a gold standard then each currency is like a
different suit of clothes on the same body. If we could get all the currencies of
the world linked up to each other then there would be no need for currency
trading.

Mr. Wanniski's point stresses the main strength of the gold standard-its stability.
In the gold standard there are no major fluctuations that can be exploited by the
speculating activities of men like Mr. Soros as well as the big industrial and
financial interests of this world. It is this concept of stable money that is being
called for throughout the Islamic world.

Dr. Muhammad Umer Chapra, economic adviser to the Saudi Arabian
Monetary Agency, wrote of the importance of stable currency values in his
book , "Towards a Just Monetary System."

"Stability in the value of money should be an indispensable goal in the Islamic
frame of reference because of the unequivocal stress of Islam on honesty and
fairness in all human dealings. The Qur'an unequivocally stresses honesty and
justice in all measures of value.  These measures apply not only to individuals
but also to society and the state and need not be confined to conventional
weights and measures. They should encompass all measures of value. Money
also being a measure of value, any continuous and significant erosion in its real
value may be interpreted in the light of the Qur'an to be tantamount to
corrupting the world because of the adverse effect this erosion has on social
justice and general welfare."

Chapra also notes the role of money as a unit of account and warns of the
dangers of inflation: "Inflation implies that money is not able to serve as a just
unit of account. It makes money an inequitable standard of  payments and an
untrustworthy store of value." In fact Prophet Muhammad ( peace be upon him )
himself warned of the dangers of this type of inflation or instability in commodity
values nearly 1,400 years ago.

Inflation-deflation is known as Riba al-Fadl in the Islamic world and it is
prohibited. By establishing an economic bloc under a gold standard, the Islamic
nations of the earth could eliminate currency fluctuations and establish the
interest-free banking system that the Qur'an mandates.

( Cedric Muhammad is a New Jersey-based writer and a frequent
contributor to the Final Call. )

Barron's at least a week old's issue, had a good article &
100 year+chart on overtextended U.S. stock market wiith S&P/Dow ( ? ) PE ratio -- which in at all previous market tops - peaks - reacvhed its PE extreme at about the "20" level.
And yes, the current PE of 28-29 is an accident waiting to happen.....actually, more like a catastrophe waiting to happen....


But wait a-minute...not to worry...I'll do my part to keep
the buying pressure in there -- we must do our share to
continue our support of the greatest bull market in stocks, in history:

"I'm off to buy more mutual funds with my credit cards.....!?!!"

I'm not advocating a return to the gold standard. It's just that alot of what was being written here sounds like some of ANOTHER'S rantings.

Live Long and Propser.

Our focus here... is supposed to be on gold.

Friday June 26, 1:01 pm Eastern Time

Economist Kaufman warns US stock prices may plunge

NEW YORK, June 26 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates ``at some point''
to cool the U.S. economy and asset price inflation or it could face a painful stock market swoon,
economist Henry Kaufman said on Friday.

``The financial bubbling in the American financial system is an untenable situation,'' Kaufman,
president of Henry Kaufman & Co. Inc., said in a speech prepared for a Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston conference on business cycles in Chatham, Mass.

``The way events are unfolding now one of several events will topple the exuberance,'' according to
a copy of the speech released here.

U.S. stocks have surged in recent weeks, with most indices either at or near record highs.

A more open, deregulated, securitized and global financial system and rapid development of
financial derivatives will require relatively steep increases in short-term interest rates to slow the
economy and check inflation pressures, much as they did in England this year, Kaufman said.

`` ( The Bank of England ) has imposed the highest short-term interest rates of any advanced country
and yet the U.K. economy still manages to chug along at a brisk pace, further tightening taut labor
markets and imparting an upward tilt to wage and price inflation,'' he said.

``At some point the Federal Reserve may face a similar dilemma as the possibly transitory factors
holding down the U.S. rate of inflation -- namely as high value of the U.S. dollar in the currency
markets, weak economic activity in Asia that keeps many products highly competitive, and low
commodity prices -- are reversed,'' Kaufman said.

The economist said the deregulation and globalization of the world's financial system could worsen
the current U.S. profit squeeze, weaken the Japanese economy and halt the flow of foreign funds
into U.S. markets.

Kaufman said it is not a question of whether any one of those would happen, but when. In that
context, the Fed would be forced to ease credit sharply to offset a sharp slowdown in U.S. growth.

``In the immediate aftermath of such an event ( as a stock market correction ) the central bank will
then try and counter the sharp declines in asset prices by easing monetary policy significantly,'' he
said.

``Thus, today's euphoria in the stock market will be followed by a sharp stock market correction,
and in this carnage long government bonds may very well fall to a yield of four percent. After that, I
suspect a more definitive monetary strategy incorporating financial behavior is likely to be
formulated,'' Kaufman added.

Recent changes in financial markets render obsolete conventional methods -- such as setting target
ranges for money supply growth -- for anchoring monetary policy, Kaufman said.

As such, Kaufman called for improved supervision and regulation of financial institutions and
markets from the Fed and global regulators.

Sorry about that, it's just that one does get carried away when seeing the price of gold rising on it's own hook. Isn't this better than the bitter bickering we saw over the weekend?

Well, its time for me to go to bed. Catch you in about 10 hours time.

Live Long and Propser.

I've read ANOTHER's stuff, and it's very compelling. What's missing is an explanation of where the leadership will come from in the Islamic world to accomplish what the EU has with the euro. Do you know if he has addressed this anywhere in his writings?
-EJ

All:

The silver market has been dead in the water for the past week, so there hasn't been much to talk about.

As we enter into the July delivery period things may not be as before.

Two pieces of info stand out. First, the strong buying between 5.00 and 5.30 which effectively put a bottom in the market came through the desk of Goldman. The buying, at the time, was rumored to be for Kodak. Interestingly enough, even though price strength was evidenced there was no tightening in the physical market. If indeed Kodak was the end customer they were buying price protection and not physical metal.

During the March and May delivery periods the switch went out to full carry ( around 5.5 cents ) both times. This was indicative of large long futures positions which had to be rolled. The July-Sept switch has not blown out like the previous contracts and is now trading around the 3 cent level, indicating some tightness coming in the Comex market.

Now for interesting part.

The delivery notices for first notice day have come out and show that Goldman stopped 4400 contracts or 22 million ounces. There is no way of knowing whether or not this is all they have stood for since the shorts control the delivery process. The Kodak buying was rumored to be in the neighborhood of 50 million ounces or half their yearly consumption. It is within the realm of possibility that all of this metal will be taken from the Comex. If this does occur there is going to be very significant short squeeze.

In the past the specs have generally not gone after the Comex stocks because of the fear that the exchange would shut them down. In this instance it may be that Goldman will use the Kodak purchase as cover, because the exchange could not deny delivery to a real end user unless they were to admit that the exchange was bogus, which they certainly will avoid at all costs.

The above is obviously the conjecture of a silver bull.

US F-16 fires missile at Iraqi radar site

Sorry it bugs ya.

So, let's talk about gold!

-EJ

For reasons we have spoken of before it has always been in the west's best interest that there be unrest in the middle east. Not only unrest but complete lack of any single leadership. If OPEC could not control oil prices any better than it has, it is difficult to see where the neccesary leadership would come from to create an Islamic currency.

Look at all the trouble the Euro has been and thses guys are supposed to be friends.

June 30, 1998 -- Updated 9:17 a.m. EDT ( 1317 GMT )
go





U.S. fires missile at Iraqi radar
site

A U.S. F-16 fighter fired a radar-seeking
missile at an Iraqi radar site near Basra
Tuesday after the site apparently locked
onto four British jets which were on routine
patrol in the southern no-fly zone over Iraq.

The British pilots said they detected Iraqi
radar signals had "acquired" their planes,
meaning they were locked on as targets.

The F-16 fired a "Harm" missile at the
site. It is not known if the missile hit the
target.

Maybe there's correlation -- perhaps some thing een of 'predictive value'
.....when the..."bickering at the 'gold-post'....
reaches unacceptable levels... ( -such as the pathetic drivel of yesterday )
it is reflecting the hidden frustration, and exhaustion of
any last vestige of patience, faith, etc., among at least a
few noisy, burned-out 'goldbugs'....

and such a phenomenon, always happens at important trading lows,
in gold markets...

and some times, even at historic turning points.

Jin, thanks for the percentage loss figures on Asian countries since beginning of crisis. Very useful to me.
Regards, Steve Blizard ( steve.blizard@eepo.com.au )

Fox-Man

Doesn't really 'bug' me.... any thing for a laugh...
the only thing that 'bugs' me, is gold prices........

maybe if ALL "goldbugs" who came 'a-contributing' here,
could keep it light & playful, and at times even
useful and enlightening ( -like you & Gollum do, really ) ,
we'd all have more fun....including playing with ourselves
( -and we might even get richer, too )

Guess I was right the first time...before July.

Tom

Alert aborted...? - the F-16 Harm missile probably missed;
guess I can go back to bed;
gold's dead ....
for another day. ( a goldbug's haiku-miseroo )

JTF, interesting observations & questions today. The thing about Japan that blew us out of the water was the massive intervention by the Central Banks to underpin the Japanese Yen. I suspect they are in cohoots with the Hedge funds to a large extent. But I may be wrong. If they hadn't intervened, the black hole would be a lot bigger that it is in the past week or so. Logic says in "monetary policy" thinking that to reinflate the whole Asian region is the way to go. However, you have to pick off a few countries as you go to keep the blood sucking system continuing in the better countries. Reinflation will hold things up for many years ahead. Be it right or wrong. Which may make Asia a good place to invest.

The comments about Japan not being able to sell US Bonds as the higher interest from the bonds is covering their losses looks strangely similar to what the US banks did during 1991 onwards. It obviously does the trick. Unfortunately all this is delaying the inevitable. Maybe with all these smart deals going on, the coming depression could be a long slow financial death, rather than a catastrophic crash per se. I am not sure what I would like in preference.

Issues such as: Do the top 100 businesses want the three trading blocs in operation, & what are they prepared to inflict to get it; must be answered. Will a major depression etc help bring about a one world currency or not? Will the Arabs rise up against Israel, including Egypt? How much havoc will the Y2K bug REALLY inflict. We wait in anticipation. I think the next project is to get rid of Yeltsin's crew, & revamp the Russian leadership before their wheels fall off. The USA/China deal is very interesting.

Steve Blizard

is accurate & updating,
i sure like the line of the line

maybe gold isn't dead anymore, even for one more day,
maybe even for many years to come......

( guess i'd better stay up today, after all )

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

I've noticed, myself, a certian correlation between the "Kitco sentiment index" and movements in gold prices. When the worst gloom hits the price jumps. When the wildest euphoria sets in the price plumments.

Some of us make a more sensitive barometer to watch of these high/low pressure sentiment systems moving through and as such should probably not be discouraged from posting here however much their posts might seem to be coiming from the Island of Hysteria.

I guess if I were a conspiratist I would even begin to suspect that the amount of gloom arose from the effect of others "out there" manipulating news and events so as to drive people out of gold as much as possible before they stepped in to make their own purchases. Or that the euphoria was a measure of how much the marketing hype had raised spirits before the big boys were ready to dump their holdings.

SPOT GOLD=$296.50
AUG. GOLD=$298.10
XAU=70.15

I just found this web site which should prove to be of interest to those who are concerned about how gold markets operate.

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.16/Gold1.html

Tyler Rose

Must also take currency depreciations into account. Though Indonesia's exchange is -40% its currency is down 65 or so % for a combined loss of 80% of total value in relationship to 'the world'. Sounds like 'the Great Depression' to me! Korea looking even worse.

www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0630/i_ap_0630_47.sml

Downside momentum has been lost. Shorters having no reason to continue shorting they wait. Longs have been strong. They have supported in D.A.'s range of 500 to 530. A solid floor. The shorts know they can't win here. The positions are to large to cover quietly. The rumored Goldman/Kodak ploy sounds like something a large, sneaky short would try to do. If so, how sweet it is!

to read all of your great posts, and wish to thank Squirrell for
sending me Sharefin's post, and while I'm here--
Where is gold going near term, IMHO-- to 315-320.
Enjoy!
Where did I get this from, the little H&S pattern which measures
to that level.
Hope you guys are not nasty to each other any longer. Not nice- really!

J.O. Grabbe has been introduced and recommended here at kitco
before; but it never hurts to repeat a sincere, helpful effort,
so thanks for the url reminder.


Even "60 Min.", last Sun. nite, "introduced" Mr. Grabbe & his site
but I don't think they were exactly recommending him.

But then consider the source.
Just think of all those yet-to-be-initiated gold-buyers
out there,
who haven't ever even touched the stuff, yet.

it's going to be quite a bull market

( it's starting now ) ( i/m/humble?/o )

Does anyone know what has happened to WDEPY: Why it has stopped trading? I can't seem to find any news on it. Thanks in advance.

-Tom

http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=wdepy

HenryD

Greetings to Kitco posters and lurkers.

The Toronto Mining Issue Summation Index is still rising, but at a slower than usual pace. Today will likely fix that. This is positive and has contributed to my returning to a fully invested position last week.

The new lows for Toronto mining issues have stabilize around 10 issues per day. This is neutral as I like to see 5 or less issues per day as an "All Clear" signal. I hope to see this within a short period of time.

My gold/WG580 ratio was extremely oversold a couple of weeks ago, and has improved since then. WG580 is the Worden Brothers precious metals index. It is broader than the XAU.

The recent low of 5660 in the Toronto Gold Index will serve as the base for the trendline that rises 2% per week. This trend line usually contains intermediate corrections. The trendline is at 5888 for this week.

Non-Canadians may dismiss the Toronto Gold Index as regional, but it does contain a good assortment of large and mid- sized producers. Some people like to convert the index to U.S. dollars when analysing data.
Remember that Barrick, Placer Dome, Battle Mountain, Echo Bay, Royal Oak, Franco Nevada, Euro Nevada, TVX, Agnico Eagle etc. are all in there. Quotes are available with charts from Yahoo.

WDEPY stocks are presently been exchanged for ANGLOGOLD
( the former Vaal Reefs ) because of a merger. So are Freegold.
Both are no longer quoted and traded since june 25 here in Paris
and maybe in NY too...

Further to my previous post, you may look at Reuters news at
http://www.investools.com, a pretty good site for gold and mines news.
You may particularly look at The Alchemist, one of their newsletters.
Online subscription is only $ 9.95 per month.

Maybe we should talk to Bart about developing one - an index.
Maybe we could set-up a posting-board - bureau of review; you know, a kind of gold-bug over-sight bureaucracy;
selected esteemed members among us kitcoites would serve as the volunteer committee of review; i think Russia has some good examples of such committees, when they got their "revolution" underway in the early part of this century ( ha, ha ) .

This review committee of kitcoites could assign a numerical value: say from a -10 for the super-bearish posts, negative posts;
to a +10 for the super-bullish, positive posts.
Then we could tabulate them, their percentages, etc.

But sincerely, I think there really is something worth trying to
to watch, or identify, in the way of
...the "collective sentiment" .... among we goldbugs.

But, so far, I've found my only useful tools of timing,
in the technical charts.

For example, the Committment of Traders patterns,
for many commodities, foreign currencies, and gold too,
are looking more bullish all the time.

The recent rise in cotton prices, and the jumps
in Soymeal, Beans, Sugar, even c-oil.....
were all "set-up" - their foundation laid....
or at least their recent upside-bounce...
identified by COT patterns.
Watch, specifically, for Commmercials/COT pattern of gradually lower net-long values, simultaneously with lower prices.
If this happens over weeks' duration, you get at least a very good chsance of a very good upside bounce.

If this pattern of lower prices correspondingly with lower Commmercials/buying/net-long....over several months duration,
you can get a new bull market, out of laying such a ground-work.

To come up with a layman's explanation, its like:
the 'big-boys' ( -Commercials ) , over-time have revealed that they are thru buying the stuff ( -whatever it is, gold, cotton, beans, D-marks, etc. ) ...
when their eagerness - their net long/buying values keep declining/having declining peaks,
even as prices work there way lower, over the same corresponding
time.

So if the big-boys have bot all they want; are loaded to the gills, and don't show anymore, or very little additional net-long/buying values, even at record low prices....
why....
then....
prices must be getting ready to go up ( -so thet 'big-boys ) can sell later on, at the top, tothe "Large & Small Speculators" -- the other 2 components of Committment of Traders data ( COT ) .

If I ever get literate with computers & transfering charts/images, I'll attempt to post some examples on kitco's world.

Meanwhile you can get COT charts, data, from dearborn.com, ( FL )
or from their source of data: Pinnacle Data Corp., NY.

Hope this is useful/helpful.
Sincerely,
David
goldfever@k-online.com
all were at least hinted

That was very helpful.

-Tom

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=aagiy&d=b

Is there an explanation for the severe down spike in spot silver this
morning at the New York opening? It recovered in a few minutes.
Just wondering.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=angly&d=b

Yesterday I posted here, that I felt this bell-weather stock
was testing/probing/flirting-with... it's Jan. lows; and that
it would likely turn up here/now .....helping to signal/confirm
the return of the bull to gold. imho

Very insightful. What do you think of something thats had about twenty years of ever lowering prices?

Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

Just one of Bart's little software glitches to keep us from getting too bored. Happens pretty often.

You mean gold, since 1980?
If you are not being facetious, then I don't know.... ( an answer & you probably aren't looking for one )

20 yrs. is a long time...
too long for my blood, i lean toward option/futures trading....i don't think anyone's providing a liquid market in 20 yr. puts & calls...
( -not that i'd be interested.... )

later,
i'm off to the beach

( i may buy some morew calls today, first, in g & s )

stocks have been going up since '82.....too
that seems a long time/over-extended bull market....at least by historical comparisons

COT patterns are not useful for super-cycle/long-wave investment patterns....
( i don' think )

Data error.

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 15:55
goldfevr@pacbell.net ( the unholy trinity: farfel, PH, & LGB )
ID#434108:
a-men

Goldfevr@pacbell.net:

( So your posting handle is not your e-mail address? I would have prefered sending you the following off-line. However, since your original remark was posted here, perhaps it is not so out-of-place that I post these remarks here. )

May I ask you how you justify mentioning me in the same trinity as F* and LGB?

Because I said that F* is not as before? Do you know that this is a phrase first coined by ANOTHER and later ridiculed to death by LGB?

Do you know how many times F* wrote IDCIBM? ( I don't care, I'm buying more ) That he forecasted an "impending short squeeze of monumental proportions" in the gold market right before a sharp correction ? That he also tried to prove that the DOW was the only place to be invested? That he considers himself more well-educated that anyone else here with
his graduate degree in macro-economics from Yale?

Or do you object to my passing mention that LGB and F* are "birds of a feather"? Have you noticed that the rocket scientist has never, ever mentioned one single word about rocket science? Or that he has offended nearly every other poster on this forum? That his disagreeable personality manages to belittle every idea raised here without offering anything other than numismatic information of his own? That he reacts without any reflection whatsoever to every idea raised here with the most ordinary, banal, conventional arguments couched in insulting language while claiming to be the voice of reason? Did you notice that he was even willing to gang up with a madman ( Farfel, who is not as before ) against me? Do you realize that he has acted in the same way to many, many others?

Do you know that he virtually single-handedly drove ANOTHER ( perhaps the most interesting poster ever to appear on this forum who was respected by every thoughtful poster here, and whose THOUGHTS illuminated and stimulated our own for over a year ) away from this forum? Who has the right to behave in such a manner? Is this some special forum where permission must be requested from LGB ( or anyone else ) before posting?

Do you know that very many thoughtful and interesting posters left at that time, or shortly thereafter? That very many posters categorically and absolutely refuse to reply to his insulting comments at all, myself included? Did you notice that even in this case, when he smeared my reputation, called me names that he considers insulting and tried to discredit me in every base and inane way, that I still refuse to address him directly?

If you do know all this, how do you censure me for my gentle gibe? Have you acquired your prejudice from LGB's vitriolic diatribes?

Please feel free to clarify this.

I've been asking Bart, for several weeks ( -longer? ) to change my 'kitco handle', & drop my old goldfevr@pacbell.net - because it has not been my e-mail address for a long time.
I think just today, finally, Bart/kitco has corrected/updated
my "handle" ... which now reads simply 'goldfevr'.
If you care to e-mail me:
goldfever@k-online.com
should do it.

Best Regards,
David

I was being only semi-facetious. I could see that a short term of cosolidation meant a small rally and a long one meant more of a bull marekt, so I was wondering what a super long one might mean. I see that if the length is too long the relaitionship breaks down.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/technology/story.html?s=z/reuters/980629/tech/stories/encrypt2_1.html

anybody have a POG quote? Does this mean the POG is
surging? It has in the past.

I think when the average person finds out what has been going on behind
the scenes with the real money he is going to get real angry. Yesterdays
pissing matches will seem tame by comparison. Long before Buffett announced his buying of silver my intuition was telling me that the super
rich were buying under the cover of all the "bad news bears".

It was last summer. I was talking with someone who worked in Microsoft's
investment department. We were just talking shop about stocks etc. when
I decided to test the waters so too speak, so I just dropped the golden
bomb and asked how much gold had Bill accumulated? Well, I'm pretty
good at reading people and this person's reaction was very strange. He
got flustered before regaining himself to say that he couldn't talk about
those things. Why not, you have talked about everything else, I retorted
and he just walked away.

My point is not that Bill can't buy all the gold he wants to. He can.
I just have the feeling that when the public finally sees the light
there is not going to be much gold and silver around to buy. With no
way to protect himself, the average person is going to get pissed.

When the illusions the public has been living under are revealed....
look out below. Yes, gold and silver will go way up in price that will
be nice. But not so nice will be the aftermath, and we all will suffer
in that environment. Gold standards are so much better to live under.

thanks. GD

I asked if the DOW'd be a dog. "Hell, no!" he barked. "It's great to be a dog," he said. "The DOW will be a long, stinky cat." And then went back to sleep.
-EJ

My KISS method of analysis: Use XAU as signal for confirmations of analysis of the individual issues. Use Moving avgs of 23, 50, and 200 day. Also look at MACD for confirmations. Only trade gold stocks on the basis of SHORT TERM trades, ( except for my CEF which is in IRA and use long term signals for that ) . For instance: Last XAU buy confirmation was 3/26/98 @ 23 day crossed 50 day MA ( up ) ( MACD already positive ) ; Sell was 05/01/98 @ break thru 86 ( down ) . I sold all but FSAGX then and let my emotions rule until the break of FSAGX 50 day MA day line occurred on 5/7. Gave back most of gains in FSAGX which happens when trade on emotions! Went back and checked: Donald's difference in 200 vs 233 day MA doesn't seem to have much effect on these trades for me. Next buy signal ( preliminary ) requires break thru XAU 72 ( up ) .

Confirmation by 50 day MA crossing 23 day, and MACD going positive appears a ways off, barring an explosive move up. IMHO this is the problem; being "safe" vs missing the big initial move up. Comments??

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

Aug gold cbs 2981. Tried to get it sooner and puter went out

I've noticed that; whenever spot gold is active the price window locks up. Bookmark this image from USA Today, it shows spot price and is ( usually ) available.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif

Otay, I have given my ration of gold away today, awakened by a 7 and 9 year oldattacked I wasbut no matterout on to the lawnand tales were told of the Baron M..And Don Q attacking the Windmilll

The riches in their eyesUncle Kevan.moremore.hehhehfurtiveinto the Wardrobewhat stories lie within

I really HOPE each and everyone of you is having is much fun as me today

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980701/world/world3.html

Well, I could go and yank a few levers, what would you like, up or down?

Now 11:46 cbs aug gold 298.2

bought some more just now.......I could be wrong.......been wrong more times than I can count............ Tick-Tock. ( who cares? ) IDCIBMS ( ! )

away.....to sit back and wait.......hum dee dum

eatcrazy

this Monday 7/6 the 'Kuston' and I will be knocking the white ball around some Phoenix course...... ( hot ) ...... ( phew ) .............anyone care to join us?? yahooo!

will be very scary. Fox-Man

11:21 DOLLAR DOWN 2.6% TO 138.61 YEN, DOWN 0.2% TO 1.8052 MARK

AGULP to ya! Today.....and EVERY day.
away.......to search for more peopleos like Kevan
M

I hope that this trend continues. The strength of US Dollar is the cardinal reason why POG is low.,

The low lease rates, CB sales conspiracy, derivatives paper game are all complex and are secondary in importance.

Simply put, If US paper falls gold rises as an average investor or global masses are not cognizant of consistent snaring and entrapment of huge amounts of global cash flow from all corners of planet into US system through several methods like unregulated currency chaos ( using Soros ) , rating downgrades ( using Moody ) , bad publicity of all economies outside US, increased indebtedness and garnering of natural resources ( through IMF ) , planned hysteria into 'flight to quality' invective.

Uncle Sam is a very shrewd operator in raising cash and sucessfully converting the world to the religion of Almighty Dollar which is supposed to be 'as good as gold' all over the world.

The US gov/Fed can increase this wealth, control it's production, manipulate it's value, destroy other world paper and related economies, All this is easy and completely under US control as long as perception of US Dollar is high and world belief that it is 'good as gold'.

The US inflation is low cause all global slaves producing goods for US consumers have now to be paid consistently less than ever before. Check out any consumer goods they are all made elsewhere other than USA. these modern version of slave camps are perpetually in debt and somehow their currency values are always dropping going into the future ( Show me ONE cuurency that has risen in value against the dollar in last 100 years, you will find NONE, it is interseting to note that now 65 to 70% of ALL international trade is in US Dollars and rising, whether it is between Togo/Congo or Libya/Iran )

The US inflation is low because they dont need to attract foreign wealth by increasing return as it is flowing in as 'flight to quality' nor US paper have a competitor in terms for parking of big numbers from elsewhere on the planet.

What interest that the Nation and entities thriving on strength of US dollar have in ensuring appreciation for Gold, a product that can be produced by everybody and outsiders and poor nations, that US can never effectively control it's production or more importantly it's distribution.

Till that awakening, Dollar is King................

MISSILE FIRED AT IRAQ; TRIPP TALKS

HOLLYWOOD -- In what can only be described as a bizarre media coincidence, news of the "American F-16 fighter firing a

missile at Iraqi installation" came to the minute that Linda Tripp arrived at Washington courthouse to testify bfore a

grand jury.

The ASSOCIATED PRESS issued news alerts covering both developments twenty-three seconds apart -- with the missile flash

moving first.

Gollum: Just curious -- are you a Chemist by background? It is very clear that you are trained in the Physical Sciences -- it is a pleasure to converse with someone who uses logic to analyze the markets.

I also would like to know how you discerned that the yen/dollar ratio was slowly relaxing after RR 'tweaked' it. What time scales do you use? I am interested more in the concept than the actual numbers.

Speaking of time scales, have you noticed that the POG seems to be slowly creeping up the alst few days, as if the 'big boys' are waiting on the sidelines, trying to see which way the equilibrium trend is going. This is not just a 'thin' market effect -- the trading volume may be low -- but it is evident also that the 'pushers and pullers' are only weakly effecting the POG.

Just to expand on D.A.'s comments ( thanks again for the input D.A. ) , If Kodak has taken delivery, this would be as significant as Buffett's purchase. As the largest consumer of silver, Kodak would never intentionally do anything to bull the price. For it to take physical delivery of COMEX stocks, could mean only two things IMHO. One, they are having, or sense trouble coming in securing physicals from their normal sources, or two, they feel physicals have become more secure to hold than paper derivatives.

Against a backdrop of the largest paper short position the world has ever seen, Kodak's actions, if true, will rock the market.

Think I better post before F* wakes up and I can be serious for a change. Saw a very well don commercial for monex this morning and had to stop flipping the channel long enough to watch. Tastfully done and made good points about gold. Pushing heavily for the Vienna Philharmonic coin. Maybe this could get the ball rolling EH?

Back to setting out the claymores in preparation for Fartfuls visit.
SHALOM!

.

.

http://www.fxnetworks.com/100nights/index.asp

Gillette as a possible source ( last week ) . Today, this:

Gillette says to delist stock in Brussels

BOSTON, June 30 ( Reuters ) - Gillette Co. said on Tuesday it
would delist its common stock on the Brussels Stock Exchange,
effective July 1.

Gillette, a maker of razors, blades and toiletries, said in
a statement that the decision to delist was part of a review of
its stock listings around the world in light of the changes in
the capital markets.
( ( --New York Newsdesk ( 212 ) 859-1700 ) )
REUTERS

Changes in capital markets? Now, Paul doesn't name names often, and maybe he just got lucky. But he's got a nose on 'im. You can pull the levers, but the long stinky cat is as it is, and Paul says to expect the unexpected from once quite corners.

-EJ

and now...some very special words...from Crystal Ball..........


"A Few Little Words Of Wisdom"

Follow your heart,
never surrender your dreams.
Constantly work towards your goals.
Believe in yourself, and always be truthful.
Take time to enjoy life's pleasures.
Keep your mind open to new experiences.
Think before acting,
but don't forget the joys of spontaneity.
Make your own decisions.
Look out for yourself but remember
that you share this universe with others.
Look for the good in others,
Everybody has their own song to sing.
Live each moment to the fullest,
for a moment too soon becomes a memory.
Look for opportunities, not guarantees.
Hope for the best.
Give people a chance to love you,
for that is how you learn to love.
Live your life for yourself,
but always be considerate of others.
Believe in tomorrow,
for it holds the key to your continued success.

.

Yoooo-weeee...that stuff stinks. Why don't y'all take that stinkbait down to the river...waters are rising here in Shawnee country. That means the 'cats are bitin'.

CoolJing: Coincidence? Linda Tripp and F16 missives nearly simultaneously. My guess is that BC would not intendionally marr his trip to China with a fracas in Iraq.

Would be interesting what kind of policy was set up for the Iraq 'no fly' zone regarding how our F16 pilots are to respond to Iraqi radar 'locks', or whatever the phrase is. Recently the news coming from Iraq has been conflicting -- with official messages indicating pending relaxation of UN sanctions -- to revelations about Iraqi missle fragments with traces of VX nerve gas. Doesn't seem like a well coordinated foreign policy to me.

If the MonicaLewinskigate stuff heats up, a fracas in Iraq would be a great diversion.

More of an Applied Philosopher.

I use quite a bit of intuition coupled with logic as a sanity check.
One must use both synthesis and analysis else it is like trying to
clap with just the right or just the left hand.

Just before the tweak the yen/dollar ratio was beginning to go up a
notch almost hourly. Went from 142 to about 146 or so in very short
length of time. Afterward went back up to about 140 or so fairly
quicky but took almost a week to pke it's nose above 142.

Simultaneously all the steam went out of the games the shorts play.
Even the 1:00 goblin lost spirt and was even long one day.

Some things are rather ineffable and can only be sensed.

Linda Tripp, in leaked grand jury testimony, stated unequivocably that
"gold has no monetary function" sending the spot markets lower.

a I predicted last Thurdays for Monday, and yesterday for today.

Yesterday he held $/Yen down so no one could close at a profitable up spike, and today he is taking the quarters and months paycheck.

Now he is going to take their jobs...huge losses in Forex trading on the near horizon, as these "derivatives" traders have put on huge positions
that their managers haven't questioned as long as it "makes the month".

BIS meeting on 7/15 in Tokyo, with Greenspan present will be a train wreck for currency speculators.


HB

.

I have my suspicions that Monica Lewinski is a diversion. If after months of leading us down the Lewinski trail it should turn out that her testimony is rather innocuous and discrediting of Starr, we would then suspect Starr had been getting too close to something in his original investigation.....

So let's see, if Kodak and Buffett take delivery it must be because they see the obvious: There are more paper claims against silver and gold
than there is metal that can be delivered.This is why I will not buy
options or futures on gold or silver. I REMEMBER POTATOES!!!!

In the end I beleive only two kinds of PM's will be left. The physical
in one's possession and the physical in the ground. One might think
that the physical in your possesion would be better but I would add that
it's a lot easier to steal. So outside of survival reserves I am sticking with good mines. Hope I am right. Actually, I think both are necessary.

If Kodak can't get silver they are out of business so they are going
to begin the hoarding process. So will everyone else with everything
from PM's to toilet paper. This is why I see a mini boom developing
before the bust. A lot of this will be because of Y2K preparations.

Thanks, GD

P.S. What a nice day we are having on the net!! Hope that doesn't jinx it.

.

...close over 299.50 August AU today would be extremely hazardous for you.

Yen bears, please notice Japanese RTC program implemented this coming Thursday....Japan is back.


HB

DO you have a date ( year? Month? for that potato market manipulation?

I need data to convince my brother.

Thanks

This hasn't been reported for quite a while on the forum. This data is from yesterday 06/29/1998:

Gold 195,823 Oz

Silver 44,265,070 Oz

Hmmmmmmmmmm. How will Kodak buy 50 MM Oz of silver from COMEX?

Maybe Paul is part bloodhound. Maybe we should have him follow the Gillete trail a bit further. What does he think about Coca Cola and the
price of silver?

You should know that Fartful would not dare to see me in person.
He cant get it up with a jack. He has no cojones, as to your suggestion he has it in my wazoo, it must be wishful thinking he had it up yours. Dont start with me. I am trying to end it with that little bag of excrement.
He obviously needs help or drugs or both. I cant understand his obession with attacking people who only want to ignor him, I will not resond to his batings again , You cant match wits with the unequipped.
SHALOM

You really need to get out more, cats as in { catfish }, they love something " stinky ", yes the worse it smells the better they like it.

Maybe some will get shipped in from some warehouse in London.

.

.

15 cents. Does anyone believe that this qualifies as a breakout of its recent consolidation pattern? Also, if Buffet thinks it is wise to own physical silver, why wouldn't Kodak as well? Are the people running Kodak smarter than Buffet? I doubt it. Lastly, if there were a short squeeze and silver was not available to Kodak, ( just profits on their trade ) , that would not be satisfactory to Kodak as they still have a business to run.

I believe that URL you posted for USAGold is the Aug contract, not spot.

With the current low oil price and now a falling dollar, oil producers can't be very happy. Any thoughts on how they might respond if the dollar keeps falling?

Ok, what is your objection to monex commercial? It MAY spark a little interest with Joe Six pak and Tammie ( Not Tammie Faye ) . Though if she will buy Gold with her ill gotten gains from TV all the better. I bet ORal has plenty of it in his vault.

It is well known as Ted Butler says that gold and silver have their
largest short positions ever. So did potatoes when my friend bought
long contracts. The news was well known. He expected great profit
from the obvious. Did it work? NO! They moved the goal posts to the
insiders ( The members ) benefit.

Gold and silver are so political, economic and important that when these
paper shorts get into trouble I think the goal posts will be moved.
It won't be fair but you won't be able to do anything about it.
That's why I am not going to buy futures or options. If all they will
allow is $400 to $450 gold then the stocks like DROOY and RANGY will
do O.K. as will others.

I hope this doesn't happen but I am afraid it will. I know no one here
wants to hear about this or even believe it could happen. But denial
is not good for one's investments.

Maybe I am too paranoid and I will not mention this again for a long
time.

Thanks,GD

say Monex is the oldest PM company,that still sells levarage contracts,that is their number one product which they sell,nothing wrong in that,however the adds come off as physical delivery,which they do,only after you get the leverage pitch....appealing to many not aware that the only winners in leverage are the brokers...90% of leverage customers lose money.....all I'am saying is a little honesty would be a breath of fresh air

but this CBS manipulation is really funny. Call it my joke du jour.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

Maybe, maybe not. We watch this currency...er...a...gold market ...er...a...new gold market together. Yes?

F*...cheerleading at this time would be appropriate. Hope you were under the influence yeserday...not your style my friend. Show your good side and heart.

Anybody ever "lost it" and been fortunate enough to have those close to you say..."It's OK, we understand your human"? F* It's OK...

Yen strength ain't going to last past July. At least I'm not investing on the premise it will.

Thank you grains...more contracts? Gut check time.

Go ...a...er Gold. Third time in my life I have ever posted that.: )

Tom

http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htm

if silver melts up?

It won't.


HB

on calling for JY strengthening. They are late to the party. My post from June 12:
Date: Fri Jun 12 1998 17:01
James ( JY reversal@Maybe as early as next week ) ID#252150:
Copyright  1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think Rubin & his Japanese cohorts are setting a bear trap for the JY bears. There is
no way that they will let it weaken much further & take China & the rest of the world
with it. Watch for some positive news, something that will reverse the decline & then
bam!!Rubin will intervene in a big way. They never like to intervene until there is some
momentum in the right direction. I'll be looking to buy the JY when it gets back to 143.


Needless to say, this will get the POG heading back in the right direction.
I bought a fair amount of ABX this afternoon.

Today: I also posted on Sun. that 143 would probably be the last great chance to get long the JY & POG would get to well over 300 in July.

T.Young--were you able to pull the trigger.

What else is new?

Last night I said the stock mkt. may have had it's last rally up. I think that you also can start piling into
PM stocks.Sentiment is at lows that I never would have thought that we would see. BUY!!!!

ANOTHER expresses an interesting side thought about the asset value in dollars in general in his June 29 publication at the USAGOLD site.

Independently whether you like to read ANOTHER or not, I think it's worthwhile to become aware of this valuation concept in asset markets. What's being traded daily is a tiny fraction of...let's say the total number of outstanding GE stocks. The total valuation of GE stocks is therefore determined by the price which is found by trading just a tiny fraction. This is the reason for the principal volatility of stock assets. The floor level which is put in Japan on the NIKKEI, due to capitilization practices of Japanese banks, is 15,000. That is principally extremely dangerous.

Now think of the asset holders of stock based mutual funds, as shown on 401K/IRA account statements. Doesn't everybody consider this as a measure for wealth? It's completely exposed to the risk of a volatile market.

The tiny fraction of shares being traded which can cause a crash or a drastic change in the valuation of the whole "market value" of a corporation is frightening. The way these asset markets work is the opposite of connected tubes in physics. You have one very thin tube and one enourmous diameter tube. Both are connected. In the world of physics, when you fill into the large diameter tube a certain quantity of fluid, the thin tube climbs up exactly the same as the large one. And you need exactly the same quantity as before to fill into the thin tube to reach the same level in both tubes.

Now, try to transform this picture to the asset markets. You only can fill in at the small tube or take out of it. You do this with a very small quantity, of course. The small quantity can cause huge changes in the thin tube. But, miraculously, the level of the thin tube determines also the level of the large tube. With small quantities you can change the valuation of the whole amrket value.

Now: that is of course also true for the tiny quantity of gold which is traded every day on the COMEX, and the resulting price changes have the power to valuate the 130,000 tons of gold over ground ( approx. 4 billion ounces ? ) on the entire globe.

Last night I said the stock mkt. may have had it's last rally up. I think that you also can start piling into
PM stocks.Sentiment is at lows that I never would have thought that we would see. BUY!!!!

Thanks..

In the month of april I originated the handle ( Gold Fevor ) . I wrote four or five comments. One story, that I worte, I talked about how I lost half my gold stocks in 1987 by staying in the market. I explained that gold stocks fall with the stock market, nomatter what you hear or read. This story started alot of excellent discussion.
However, not long after my last posting this imposter ( Gold fevr ) or ( Gold fever ) I see it both ways started thier handles and postings.
Because of this theft of my handle I have not used Kitco.
Be aware of this situation and keep a open mind that the posting you read may be from a imposter. Thank-You.

I also went long on soybeans, corn and wheat. Going back for more this week. Long gold...for a while.

Thank you for your insight. Would like to see all my contracts go up but such is seldom the case.

om

OK I understand, since I am a very small investor what little buying I do I do with Russ Savage at Jeffinc, he treats me well and I trust him. I have bought 90 oz since Jan as I say very small fish in among sharks.

Napoleon Solo, Illya Kuryakin, little Michael and Joseph are on a missionwhat a daywe are spies...heh...heh...

Just read that the number of deaths associated with Viagra is now 30. The most recent victim must have realized his fate as he declared, "Oh God! Im coming!" Go Gold

Your question raises a number of interesting points:

- A falling US$ signals higher oil prices? Yes? No? I bet on YES. The US is at a critical point. Push the dollar higher, or keep it there, keep oil prices low and ASIA tanks.... to be followed by the US. Let the US$ drop, consequentially providing a new incentive for the EURO to replace it as a currency for OIL, but keep ASIA viable at least for the short term.

- A strong EURO will itself force a lower US$? Yes? No? I bet on yes.

- When in this senerio will the Mid East declair its intention to use a second currency for exchange? Jan 1999? Sooner?

- Has an Asian Bank been buying Gold in order to achieve a secure ( relative to the EURO ) oil purchasing position? Which is it... China? Japan? ANOTHER implies that it is not the Japanese, since the Yen will go over the cliff before the US$ and they will not have a parachute ready! Or has the US agreed to try the balance beam approach of keeping the Yen at a stable position, while the Japance achieve at least a foothold in a gold backed currency by giving them time to purchase gold?

- Is a new Mid East crisis building, to prove once again that the US is needed to provide and protect? That scene is starting to set stage, and the outcome could spell a complete change of mind on the part of the Mid East oil producers.

Will any of these possibilities or a combination of them enhance Gold's value?

Gentlemen... place your bets! and debate the possibilities, rather than focus on Ethnic or Religious matters. This forum is too valuable to let it degrade.

Eco is unchanged at 2 1/14 low was 2 3/16. What's the problem?
Looks good on chart. Patience by friend patience.
Thanks, GD

http://www.scmp.com/News/Special/AsianCrisis/Index.asp?Article_Id=19980630165823382&folio=CRIS-Main

I've just completed a study that shows a 100 % corolation between sunlight and a indivuals death.

About 15 years ago I ran across an article in the Sunday paper on the
most intelligent people in the US. The smartest was a woman ( sorry
guys ) who then gave a test to its readers. One of the questions was:
"what happens when and irresistable force meets an immoveable object?

I guessed that every blew up! My 14 year old son got the guestion
right when he blurted out "one absorbs the other".

Now lets see we have: Japan/US Bond carry trades, the Yen/ Dollar and
soon the gold and silver markets with all those shorts are going to
be there.....so I think we are going to see some interesting times.....

Thanks, GD

At least the guy that died using Viagra died happy!!!!!!

Goblin tried a down move. Very shallow, was absorbed quickly. Tried another down move, even weaker, also failed. Net result is gold had been
steadily moving up until then, ended up going out flat.

if not THUNDER will roll across the skies...and it is a broad stroke that I cast...thus this Lesson endeth...........

looks to be closing @ 298.10 Sept Comex Silver @ 5.53 Fox-Man

Recently a guy in Paris nearly got away with stealing several paintings from the Louvre. However, after planning the crime, getting in and out past security, he was captured only two blocks away when his Econoline ran out of gas. When asked how he could mastermind such a crime and then make such an obvious error, he replied:

( scroll down )







( hide your gold )






( brace yourself )






( this is going to hurt )






( really badly )






( I warned you )





I had no Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.

It does

1.5 million share +/- trade just after noon. Otherwise, volume nothing to write home about.

The downtrend lines for ABX and Franco-Nevada have clearly been violated on the upside in the last week. These are the leaders. The others will follow. At 71.81 on the XAU right now this also breaks the downtrend line from April. Should be the beginning of wave ( c ) of [B]

I just read a shocking study! There is a 100% correlation between being born and dying! So, if you want to avoid death... Don't be born. :- ) )

One ounce of gold worth 1789 rand at 2:30.

My ABX & PDG Jan2000 call Leaps turned up even though the underlying stocks went sideways. Sophisticated money.
Off to golf. 72 & sunny in Victoria with a cool breeze off The ST of Juan De Fuca.

EB--hope you have a good cooler full of beer for Phoenix golf.

..summer solstice crowd thinks we tank into late July, then up for gold.

..I understand Arch Crawford was of this school of thought, but has REVERSED, saying we rally into that time frame then collapse.

Both crowds say break over 305 AUGUST is set-up for huge pop up.

Any astro guys out there who could clear this up? Thanks.


HB

This solicitation for a book sale on the USA GOLD at the top of the "ANOTHER" stories site is indecent.

Are you sure about that? I've heard that there are more people alive today than have ever died. ;- )

Here is a message just received from Mr. Vadillo of the Islamic Mint on the status of the Dinar. Pay close attention to what he says at the end.

***********************************************************************************

I just arrived from another journey.

Thank you for your e-mail

We had a month full of success for the Islamic Dinar. I can now say

that the Islamic Dinar will become the currency of the Muslim nation.

We have crossed the point of no return. It is now only a cuestion of time.

The support is coming from everywhere. The Mufti of Egypt, one of the

most reputable personalities of the Islamic world is now in favour of the

Islamic Dinar. It follows a translation of an article from the Arabic

Newpaper 'Al-Bayan' from Dubai ( United Arab Emirates ) about the Mufti

and the gold and silver.

From Morocco to Indonesia, we are receiving more and more support from

the Islamic authorities. One thing you have to bear in mind is that

the Islamic Dinar is the end of Islamic Fundamentalism, that sickness

that twisted the spirit and the law of Islam. Islamic Fundamentalism

is as distant to Islam as puritanism is to the teachings of Jesus, may

Allah be pleased with him.

From the first of September a system of accounts 100% based on Dinars

( gold ) and Dirhams ( silver ) will be in operation. The new institution

called Islamic Wakala or Islamic Agency is inspired on the traditional

wakils or agents in Islam. Most Muslims traders in the days of the

Islamic Dinar had their own agents in the key trading cities. They hold

accounts, made payments, transfer money and merchandise under the

instructions of the trader they represented. The Islamic Wakala

therefore will be not a bank, but a means to make the Islamic Dinar

function as a world currency. Unlike banks, our aim is to keep the gold

in the pockets of the people, which is the safest place in the world.

The Islamic Wakala will mantain in accounts only whatever is the minimum

required to facilitate instant payments accross the world for those who

need it. It will not intend to replace the use of the physical

currency, but on the contrary it will encourage the use of the physical

currency. No lending will be involved. No usury will ever again touch

our Dinars and Dirhams. This is the end of the banking system.

Time to remember that Allah says in the Qur'an:

"Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden usury"

( Qur'an, 2, 275 )

Al-Bayan

Friday 22 May 1998

The Mufti of Egypt calls for linking the Islamic economy to gold

and silver in order to face the American dollar

Cairo - 'Al Bayan' office 21 May 1998: Dr Nasr Fareed Wasel, the Mufti of

Egypt demanded that Arab and Islamic countries reinstate the monetary

policy which has historically been practiced and endorsed by Islam and

which is based on linking all the monetary and economic transactions to

gold and silver, pointing out that this policy will lead to the

establishment of a powerful Islamic economy capable of facing up to the

international economic blocs. This is so because the policy is based on

stable standards, which enable clear definition of the current and future

rights and obligations on the local and international levels of

transactions.

He also pointed out in the seminar, which was held in the Islamic Charity

Association in Cairo, under the title "Financial Transactions and the

Monetary Policy in Islam", that paper money, which appeared more than 150

years ago, has caused monetary and financial turbulence which has

corrupted international relationships and usurped rights and obligations.

He explained that the United States of America is trying to control the

world economy by force, without considering other countries' rights. This

has led the European countries, through the Common European Market, to

establish a monetary policy which can compete with and confront the

American domination.

He added that in 1945, during the Bretton Woods Conference, the countries

of the world tried to reinstate the standard of gold and silver. The IMF

and the World Bank were established at that time in order to supervise

and monitor that policy, except that this trial ended in failure, and in

1971 the rules that governed the world monetary policy were scrapped.

Consequently, the US dollar broke its last ties to gold and silver, and

the price of gold per ounce increased from $35 to more than $800, then

declined to around $380.

The Mufti described how that since that time, the US dollar has been

ruling international monetary policy through force of arms. As a result,

the just rule of recognizing rights and obligations between various

countries of the world ceased to apply, and the only option left for them

was to reconcile their monetary policies with those of the USA. On the

whole this has led to large increases in the average inflation in most

countries of the world.

---------End of Article--------

This article is history, because the Arabs had never been exposed to this

matters before. Would you imagine if they would demand gold for petrol?

You better get ready.

The Islamic Dinars are very soon coming to the US.

Regards,

Umar Vadillo

Islamic Mint and Islamic Wakala

But not for amoeba. Every amoeba alive today has been alive ever since amoeba were first created.....sorta.

Good things DO happen , now and then. Comex July silver close $5.507 +$0.202. August gold $298.10 + $3.20. Mebbe all that talk about Kodak ain't just wind. I'll take it, whatever the reason.

http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0630/f_rt_0630_33.sml

Gold hurt by rand's sharp fall
http://www.scmp.com/News/template/templates.idc?artid=19980630010303042?=mar&template=Mar_Article.htx&maxfieldsize=792

Bullion tracks currencies lower
http://www.scmp.com/News/template/templates.idc?artid=19980630010303114?=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=1171?evID=19980630010303042//?evTop=mar//?evTemp=Mar_Article.htx//?evMFS=792//

makes me embarrassed to have ever posted here. So it has come to this... another good site bites the dust. Take it off line, please.
- c

"I would recommend almost anything but gold. ...a bushel of weed would produce better returns...

http://cnnfn.com/markets/9806/30/gold_pkg/

Your mention of Kodak reminds me I read several years ( 10 maybe ) that Kodak carries 18 months Silver requirement in stock this may even have been brought up During the bunker Hunt episode.

regards
cpo

Change is in the wind, in myriads of ways, is it not? Thanks for your post.

FWIW, this timing method seems to have about 7 or 8 bars between buy and sell signals, and they just went long:

http://homepages.together.net/~ejmiller/gcchart.htm

After locking onto British tornadoes
IRAQ CONDEMNS U.S. MISSILE
ATTACK
Wednesday 1 July, 1998 ( 4:22am AEST )



Iraq has condemned a United States attack on a missile site in southern
Iraq as unjustified aggression.

It claims the attack could be part of U-S preparations for a "vast new
aggression against Iraq".

The Pentagon says an F-16 fired a missile at a mobile Iraqi missile unit
that had targeted four British warplanes patrolling a "no-fly zone".

The incident marks the first time a U-S warplane has fired on an Iraqi
missile unit since 1996.

Iraq denies its radar was activated to target allied warplanes and claims
the F-16 targeted drinking water reservoirs in an area where no military
units operate.

Britain says no further action is planned at this stage.

Fibonacci time chart for the XAU, to predict the timing of turns:

http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeXAU.htm

He's been there under the couch all day snoring like my grandmother. I'll ask him about Coca Cola when he wakes up.

I was away. Did someone say something about Lewinsky firing a missile at Iraq?
-EJ

I get the strong feeling that there are about a billion people who are mad as hell, and not going to take it anymore.....and they are discovering the means to defend themselves against the currency chaos.

Got GOLD ?

Well, of course a bushel of weed would give you better returns - if you kept the seeds... ; )

beautiful...I guess I owe it ALL to Pamela Brown... ( Leo Kottke tune. ) new neighbors got a brand spanking new Maple Leaf...one must greet new neighbors properly...and my banker is complaining about the silver...heh..heh...

this afternoon's word lustre...yes...yes...wonderous...out and about on the lawn with littles and Lord Molson has granted the world his company...simply wonderous...

yes...yes...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

-EJ

Remainder of Nazi gold to be distributed among Holocaust survivors
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/063098/world17_6742.html

http://www.mungopark.com a lovely place to visit...I assure your happiness there...

Would like to ask some questions. Please send me an e-mail when you folks get a chance: gunrunnr@nwfl.net... Thanks in advance...

All - R.e. the recent F-16 attack on Iraq. Probably just a bored, trigger happy Air Force jet jockey who locked onto a microwave oven and was dying for an excuse to hose a missile off. FYI, AGM-88 HARMSs go for well over $200,000 each. Can't wait to hear the "official" news spin on this incident.

hi

Your post on the Islamic Dinar was very much appreciated.

Good information like this makes it worthwhile to wade
through all of Mondays BS.

Thanks a million.

Could it be that this is the catalyst that will set off
GOLDEN SKYROCKETS?

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/top/063098/topstory_7039.html

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 30

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,057,694 + 47,075 troy ounces
Silver 86,245,254 + 273,162 troy ounces
Copper 63,529 - 527 short tons

N/A= Not available.
*************************************************************************
How awful! This is terrible! What awful things will come of this?....
........................Thought I'd throw in some negativity. It seemed
to work yesterday...Fox-Man
P.S. Shhhh! go gold! go silver! Shhhh!

Re your: "I've heard that there are more people alive today than have ever died. ;- ) "

If true, this make our chance of dying about 50% or less based on history to date - so far only half of us have died! :- )

http://www.gold.globalcenter.net

We just hope they do.

"One night, probably in 1880, John Swinton, then the preeminent New York journalist, was the guest of honour at a banquet given him by the leaders of his craft. Someone who knew neither the press nor Swinton offered a toast to the independent press. Swinton outraged his colleagues by replying:

"There is no such thing, at this date of the world's history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it. There is not one of you who dares to write your honest opinions, and if you did, you know beforehand that it would never appear in print. I am paid weekly for keeping my honest opinion out of the paper I am connected with. Others of you are paid similar salaries for similar things, and any of you who would be so foolish as to write honest opinions would be out on the streets looking for another job. If I allowed my honest opinions to appear in one issue of my paper, before twenty-four hours my occupation would be gone.

"The business of the journalists is to destroy the truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread.

You know it and I know it, and what folly is this toasting an independent press? We are the tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes. We are the jumping jacks, they pull the strings and we dance. Our talents, our possibilities and our lives are all the property of other

men. We are intellectual prostitutes."

MetaCreations shares fall on Q2 outlook
NEW YORK, June 30 ( Reuters ) - Shares of MetaCreations Corp.
lost more than 30 percent Tuesday after the company said it
would post a second-quarter loss of as much as $0.48 a share
amid a shortfall in revenues.

The California-based company's stock stood off 1-9/16 at
4-3/8, as more than 1.5 million shares changed hands.

Earlier in the day, the shares touched 4-1/8.

The company, which makes software tools for manipulating
computer graphics, attributed the weak sales to
lower-than-expected domestic retail sales, weak demand in Japan
and increased reserves for returns to lower distributor
inventory.

MetaCreations released its outlook in a press statement
late Monday.

Analysts surveyed by First Call had expected the company to
report a profit of $0.02 a share for the quarter.

( ( --Wall Street desk, 212-859-1730 ) )
REUTERS

Companies that say they're going to make a profit but wind up losing money really bum out analysts. These guys stuffed their channel and still couldn't make their number.
-EJ

Yup, and with an increasing world population growth rate, our chances get better every day!;- )

http://opr.princeton.edu/popclock/

A report from London has a thought-provoking view of who has been accumulating all of the Central Bank gold sales in recent years.

Chris Osborne conjectures that it very well be the US Fed along with two well-known international banks as cohorts - who have aided and abetted clandestine accumulation of the yellow metal. His belief has some very weighty arguments.

Mr.Osborne cites five important benefits the US Government might accrue in the alleged covert operations - as bogus rumors are circulated to maintain a downward price trend to facilitate gold accumulation at lower prices.

He attempts to answer the question: " One might understandably ask WHAT MONETARY IMPORTANCE THIS MIGHT HAVE?

The upshot of Osborne's thesis " WHO IS BUYING ALL THE GOLD?" is that the U.S. Fed will be in a leveraged position to REVALUE the price of gold at an astronomically higher price.

His full report at the following URL - as usual it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the URL before posting it to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne061898.html

The missile may be worth 200gs but the money is still flowing in the good old U.S.A. Keeps things moving, fire more missiles.

I hope you're right. It's going to take a lot of really mad ( or scared ) people to bring about real change. Just being hacked off hasn't worked in the past. People have to get out and DO something to force change. Sometimes people have to HURT to strike back. A market crash, or severe decline, not a correction, will probably do it, though I sometimes wonder just what it WILL take.

You may not be putting YOUR opinions out for others to read, But the likes of Peter Arnett ( Saddams Best Buddy ) Dan Blather, Peter Jennings,Tom Browkaw and all the rest of those left wingers DO shower us with THEIR OPINIONSand try to tell us what to think every day, they would not recognize the truth if it bit them on the arse. The trouble is most people do not read enough any more to tell the diifereence between a lie and the truth either, they seem to think if Dan Rather said it it must be true, remember 2 weeks ago when Arnett said the US used Sarin gas in Viet Nam, and I called him a liar on this forum? It took 10 days for the General who worked for CNN to confirm my opinion, and I have yet to hear anyone from any network to say anything about HIM.
He was hoping Communist News Network would sue him and take it to court, but you probably would not have national media covering that either. Your opinion is not the important thing to print or read in the media THE TRUTH IS DAMMIT!!!!!!!!!!!! I care less about the opinions of news men I am educated enough to form my own. Shalom to you,but not Brokaw and his bunch of nit wits.

Robby -

I think you are being unfair with regards to my company. I believe the vast majority of our new clients take physical delivery of the metal. To say "bait and switch" is unkind and disingenuous. Many who call us have no idea that a leverage type program even exists, and many of those are interested in playing these markets for profit. That is why I always ask about a potential clients suitability for this type of investment. There are folks who read this page who have called me to open a financed account. Because I believed they would be in over their head, or this was otherwise unsuitable for them, I have sent them away, or sold metal for delivery only. Perhaps some would come forward with an testament to that effect.

I have never made a secret of the fact that most of my business focuses on trading, but I have delivered better than 2000 oz gold this year and about 3000 oz of platinum. I know your line is numismatics, so we are not at odds with our approach, and we both appeal to a different mindset.

I agree with a buy and hold strategy, as long as it is properly balanced with the rest of a clients portfolio. Lets face it, no more that 25% MAX of a portfolio should be in metals and even that is 10% - 15% over the standard portfolio model. I have no idea where you get the 90% figure of losses on leveraged account. Nobody could stay in business long with that kind of attrition, let alone stay in business for 30 years.

These markets have risk. One who invest in gold for delivery has spreads, commissions, and shipping costs they must overcome before their investment breaks even. A financed account does not incur shipping costs, which can make up for a couple months interest costs. Regardless of which way you buy, the metal must rise to make a profit, yes?

If the market goes with you, leverage is the obviously superior trading vehicle. If the market moves against you, you will have to hold your physical metal or you leverage account until it goes up, or sell at a loss. Either way carries risk, yes?

Lets look at 100k put into gold:

Spot is 297, ask for Maple leafs is 311 ( bid about 298.50 ) so the spread is about 12.50 per ounce. This must be overcome whether a person takes delivery or trades by leverage. Commissions vary, but let's assume a dollar an ounce. Add another couple bucks per ounce shipping costs and you need to see a $15 move to break even. I have a gold trade with initial break even at about $6. Add about 2.75 per month in carrying cost, and it would take almost four months to equal the break even on a delivery. If the metal rises $20 in that time frame, the leveraged client will net about 10% profit, while the delivery fellow will see the meager 2% or so profit he has made being eaten up by shipping costs on the return trip.

Buying anything on leverage is a double edged sword - it cuts both ways. A five to one leverage will loose five to one if the market moves against you as well as gain five to one should the market move in your favor. Saying one is superior to another ignores a persons individual goals. For some leverage is the only way to go, for others, delivery is best.

Oh, yeah: To buy 100K in gold for delivery is a pretty safe bet, buy if the price is so low, and one believes it must rise, why not just put 20K down on the gold and free up the other 80K for other investments? This does make sense for a lot of folks.

Yes

Robby -

I think you are being unfair with regards to my company. I believe the vast majority of our new clients take physical delivery of the metal. To say "bait and switch" is unkind and disingenuous. Many who call us have no idea that a leverage type program even exists, and many of those are interested in playing these markets for profit. That is why I always ask about a potential clients suitability for this type of investment. There are folks who read this page who have called me to open a financed account. Because I believed they would be in over their head, or this was otherwise unsuitable for them, I have sent them away, or sold metal for delivery only. Perhaps some would come forward with an testament to that effect.

I have never made a secret of the fact that most of my business focuses on trading, but I have delivered better than 2000 oz gold this year and about 3000 oz of platinum. I know your line is numismatics, so we are not at odds with our approach, and we both appeal to a different mindset.

I agree with a buy and hold strategy, as long as it is properly balanced with the rest of a clients portfolio. Lets face it, no more that 25% MAX of a portfolio should be in metals and even that is 10% - 15% over the standard portfolio model. I have no idea where you get the 90% figure of losses on leveraged account. Nobody could stay in business long with that kind of attrition, let alone stay in business for 30 years.

These markets have risk. One who invest in gold for delivery has spreads, commissions, and shipping costs they must overcome before their investment breaks even. A financed account does not incur shipping costs, which can make up for a couple months interest costs. Regardless of which way you buy, the metal must rise to make a profit, yes?

If the market goes with you, leverage is the obviously superior trading vehicle. If the market moves against you, you will have to hold your physical metal or you leverage account until it goes up, or sell at a loss. Either way carries risk, yes?

Lets look at 100k put into gold:

Spot is 297, ask for Maple leafs is 311 ( bid about 298.50 ) so the spread is about 12.50 per ounce. This must be overcome whether a person takes delivery or trades by leverage. Commissions vary, but let's assume a dollar an ounce. Add another couple bucks per ounce shipping costs and you need to see a $15 move to break even. I have a gold trade with initial break even at about $6. Add about 2.75 per month in carrying cost, and it would take almost four months to equal the break even on a delivery. If the metal rises $20 in that time frame, the leveraged client will net about 10% profit, while the delivery fellow will see the meager 2% or so profit he has made being eaten up by shipping costs on the return trip.

Buying anything on leverage is a double edged sword - it cuts both ways. A five to one leverage will loose five to one if the market moves against you as well as gain five to one should the market move in your favor. Saying one is superior to another ignores a persons individual goals. For some leverage is the only way to go, for others, delivery is best.

Oh, yeah: To buy 100K in gold for delivery is a pretty safe bet, buy if the price is so low, and one believes it must rise, why not just put 20K down on the gold and free up the other 80K for other investments? This does make sense for a lot of folks.

Yes

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.14. The 50 day moving average is 30.16. All ratio calculations this evening are based upon spot gold at $297.00 and spot silver at $5.51 obtained from the Monex site.

Is this the start of a base building break-out or is gold doing what gold does best... set traders up for a big decline????

We are at an important turning point and we should find out by the close of business of monday July 6th! No later.

I'm holding onto the bear case but I'll be quick to admit I'm wrong. Still not ready to throw in the towel yet and go long. We should go down tomorrow but what will happen thursday is the question????

XAU/Spot Ratio = .241. The 50 day moving average is .262. My database contains 27 occasions where the XAU closed in the 71.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today was #21. The #1 ranking was on August 8, 1986, with a gold price of $375.60, an XAU of 71.46, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .190

A chart on crude oil. Everyone said that the producers would get there act together when crude opened up $2.00 higher. See the BIG gap. And then a week or two later and another move up. only to fall all the way down.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha13.gif

Could the Yen be doing the same thing???
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha25.gif

It's tough to say. I just thought I would point it out. Cann't have everyone a screaming bull around here. Need to see things with both eyes. You Know!

Gold/Silver Ratio = 53.90. The 50 day moving average is 53.86

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/markets_eu_4.html

MY...such laughter...heh...heh...heh...

Spot gold $298.03; spot silver $5.55; XAU 78.27

Forgot to say I called CNN long distance on MY DIME and told them essentially the same thing they had no response just thank you and hung up.

Of course, I'm more than happy to share any information that comes my way on this. I really have no idea whether an idea like the Islamic Bank/Islamic Mint could be the catalyst for a big revaluation of gold, and probably no one ( at least on the forum ) is in a position to know, either. However, for the poor souls that have been ravaged by the currency nightmare, better late to gold and silver than never. At least they have SOME chance of seeing their hard work not evaporate into the pocket of a currency trader. I, for one, do not intend to fall into the same trap as they have, if I can prevent it. As all of us know, or suspect, there is something REALLY WRONG with the way the world works these days with respect to money. How it will work out is anybody's guess - there are some very powerful forces out there behind the fiat money system. Are there equally powerful forces behind gold and silver, or is it only a trader's playground? Time will tell. I'm betting on several thousand years of history for the ultimate outcome. Got GOLD? Got SILVER?

http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0630/i_rt_0630_40.sml

Clinton said: "I had the chance to reiterate our Taiwan policy which is that we don't support independence for Taiwan, or 'two Chinas' or 'one-Taiwan one-China."

At what price...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980630/mexico_sta_1.html

The one year lease rates remained the same at 2.09% the 3 monthe lease
rates for gold went up to 1.55%. On the surface, this makes the one
month gold carry trade even more attractive with forward rates
at 4.50% but the drop in lease rates may indicate a drop in
interest by shorts. Short sellers may be getting increasingly
nervous about the short term direction of gold.

This is yet another promising indicator of at least short term strength
in the POG. The increase in lease rates for 3 month gold, may indicate
a renewed attack on gold in the fall. Both these numbers should be
watched carefully.

Watch the yen, the US$ and lease rates. This should give us the
market direction.

In his own cunning lingustics it means BOHICA for US, "Bend over here it comes again!

Hang with the Littles, that's the future

In the interest of defining what the Y2K problem really means, I have gone a-digging for some detail. Here's one good piece from today. I think it shows that when humans aren't busy prognosticating doom, they are preoccupied with foolhearty wishful thinking. Comments?
-EJ

from Declan McCullagh

This is one of the more interesting and detailed case studies of a real Y2K bug I've seen. I have not been forwarding most Y2K news because there are better forums for such discussions. But this one is worth reading and thinking about.

Though this particular situation got resolved, the implications are
sobering for "live environments," which is where most of the problems will actually first surface ( think of the tax system, the FAA system, many or even most factories and refineries, etc. ) .

The URL is:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4051126.htm

Here's the article:


Routine that became a meltdown

By SUE ASHTON DAVIES

30jun98


A ROUTINE Friday afternoon batch job turned into disaster when a computer meltdown brought a manufacturing system to its knees.

The computer room was humming, and all systems were go for one of
Australia's largest manufacturers.

Then Jeff Steel, project manager of Infact Consultants, reset the system clock to January 7, 2000, and waited to see what would happen.

The routine batch job, which involved 800 custom-built Cobol and PL-1
programs in a manufacturing mainframe environment, was expected to take six hours to run.

Close by, a terminal in the control room was set up to track the programs as they went through the batch run.

Although he anticipated some problems, Steel was not prepared for
anything coming out of left field.

His team of 12 programmers had worked methodically for nine months,
manually sifting through millions of lines of code, rectifying the double digit issue to take account of the year 2000.

Great care had been taken to keep the crew motivated and focused on the
their tasks to ensure time was spent productively and any reworking was kept to a minimum.

At worst, he expected to make some specific changes that could be easily spotted.

Operations had hardly begun before the first programs started to run slowly.

By the time the sixth program started, the system began to falter. Then, one after another, programs fell over.

By the time the 10th program failed, Steel decided to let the job run to the end, because in all likelihood, it would be all over in half an hour anyway.

Within minutes, 750 programs had fallen over. One of the few programs to continue running was invoicing, but it was producing invoices for the 43rd day of the 14th month.

As the job finally ground to a halt, a silence hung over the room as
everyone stared vacantly into the terminal.

Steel stood frozen to the floor in shock, as did his team, which had been contracted to fulfil a $3 million contract.

Twelve people stared at the terminal where a complete suite of programs
had died instantly.

Fortunately the meltdown had taken place in a test environment.

The search was now on to diagnose the problem. One of the team tracked
down the problem to an obscure mainframe program.

The culprit was a non-Y2K compliant link editor on a PL1 program that
last ran in 1987.

A link editor takes different modules of a program and puts them together in the right place at the right time.

With the problem identified and a Y2K compliant link editor installed,
the 30 programs were rerun and the problem was solved.

Steel says the use of the test environment saved the company from
bankruptcy.

"The consequences in a live environment would have been devastating," he says. As well as bringing the business to a standstill, it would have rendered it unable to operate for six months - and possibly taken suppliers and customers down with it.

Situations like this are typical of what's happening and testify to the
truth of rumours about large companies not yet meeting Y2K compliancy requirements, Steel says.

The post-mortem meeting found that the collective time required to
diagnose such an obscure problem in a live environment would been about a month, and a fix would have taken six months.

"The problem was so unusual, you wouldn't have known if it was hardware, software or system utilities," Steel says. "The horrible thing about it was that it was such an obscure component that nobody even thought that it could fail."

Even with hindsight, the problem could never have been spotted before
testing because it was too obscure.

"In nine months of remediation, no-one had ever got near this problem,"
he says.

Steel says the meltdown was so catastrophic that even a contingency plan wouldn't have saved the day.

The only way to find the Y2K bugs in a system is to manually trawl the
program code line by line to find the date fields, some of which are very obscure, he says.

One area for dates was embedded deep in a job control language, where a
sort of 30 characters revealed six characters making up a date.

Even though the testing is complete, Steel cannot say definitely that the system is now 100 per cent Y2K compliant.

As part of the strategy to protect himself and the company from any legal recourse, he operated with an auditor looking over his shoulder at every stage concurring that the way he was progressing was the best available method.

"All I can say to the client is that I can't guarantee that there will
not be any problems after the year 2000," he says.

Steel says most organisations don't understand Y2K.

"Until something like this happens, they don't understand what Y2K can do to them," he says.

 News Limited 1998

The Indonesian government decided Tuesday it will increase the
minimum wage in all 27 provinces by an average of 15% from August 1,
the state-run news agency Antara reported.
Antara quoted Saufi Syamsudin, director general for manpower
development and supervision at the Ministry of Manpower, as saying
the minimum monthly wage for a worker in the Greater Jakarta Area
would increase from 172,500 rupiah ( about $75 based on the exchange
rate on April 1, 1997 ) to 198,500 rupiah ( about $14 based on the
current exchange rate ) .

Someone check my figures:
So.. for an Indonesian to have the same purchasing power in August as in
April ( using the $US as a benchmark ) , they would have had to raise MW by 516.46% to 1,063,393 rupiah.

See Spot run. Well, see Spot stand up, stretch, lie back down and go back to sleep. Jane you need to do something about that dog! http://www.MONEX.com/prices.html

Ok guys, listen up and make your bets. Great, great grampa died and leaves you $100,000. The catch is there is a stipulation in the will that states the full $100,000 and profits and losses are yours only if you do one of two things. You either borrow $100,000 worth of gold and sell it short or you buy $100,000 worth of gold and go long. There is no in between. Do nothing you lose your rights to the money. The time frame is the next six months. Do one or the other and whatever is left is yours. What would you do?

The long bond almost recorded a new high today with a closing yield of
5.62%. DESPITE all the talk of inflation in the US, the long bond yield is declining and I expect it to be around 5.5% very shortly . Tomorrow watch the purchasing manager report. A reading below 50% will indicate the beginning of e recession in the US. A reading above 50% will indicate a weak economy. By reaching new high's the bond market is telling us a recession is near. The dollar may have peaked last week at 146 yens and corporate profits scheduled to be reported over the next few weeks could be very weak. The Y2K issue is not helping. Corporations may slow their spending for new plants and equipment and devote more resources to solve the Y2K problems. Basically, lean times are ahead, be carefull. God bless.

The Y2k example you cite is the best illustration I have seen of the interconnectness and fragility of computer systems.

go long

go long

Congratulations on selecting a completely impartial group for your survey. We have no emotional attachment to gold or related investments. We are hard-nosed, objective analysts of the precious metals markets, and any opinions you garner from this site are worth their weight in the very metals to which they pertain.

Long all day, primarily because of Y2k, although the effects of that may kick in more in 12 months than six.

Congratulations on selecting a completely impartial group for your survey. We have no emotional attachment to gold or related investments. We are hard-nosed, objective analysts of the precious metals markets, and any opinions you garner from this site are worth their weight in the very metals to which they pertain.

Long all day, primarily because of Y2k, although the effects of that may kick in more in 12 months than six.

losers were in the region of 90%,people always buy into rising markets,with limited downside protection margin calls are rampant with a 10% correction,granted I did not sell Monex leverage program,I sold its evil twin at Safra.....no real differance,there is no question there are honest brokers out there like yourself,however not all brokers at Monex have your ethics.....I know I've meet the churn and burn artists....and you know this to....my point this morning was the add,and I said bait and switch because you well know if I called up I would be given to some broker of note ( no green pea ) who would find out how much I have to spend then hit me with the leverage pitch.....no different to time share...come down for a free days vacation and spend a hour getting pitched on buying the package......this was not a hit piece on Monex just some facts

As my buddy Pierre says is better to go long on golden or platinum blonds HAR HAR

previous post...Hmmmmmmmmm...I am a poor man...watching his wealth dance in sneakers and sandals...

life is so very precious...so very precious...

BEST TO YOU AND YOUR'S...

Long as an Alaskan summer solstice.

Short...I'm a contrarian

In the interest of giving everyone one last chance to consider their vote let me point out, with no intent to influence, that some very highly respected Elliott Wavers are predicting 35 for the XAU. That means your $100,000 6 month investment could be reduced by half. $50,000 is a lot to put on the line for beliefs. Just a thought guys. Put your stones on the anvil and vote.

Go long for the whole 6 months.

A lot can happen in 6 months. Gold won't go up because the financial markets want it up...it'll go up because of politics and the rout of our currency.

My cojones would break the anvil, LONG!!!!!!!

Let me tell you that some other very highly respected elliot wave forecasters are foretelling just the opposite.

You gotta admit, this is a hell of a lot more fun than some of the racial and ethnic crap we have had to endure the last few days. Not only that we may just wind up with fair sampling of sentiment on this form. Put you stones on the anvil and vote your convictions guys.

While copying a CD ROM to my CD recorder, I was able to launch Word, type this, log onto the Internet, and post this. All while the CDs hummed in the background. I like this Windows 98.

Indeedy

TSE and all other Canadian markets closed July 1.

So which way would you vote gramps 100g's.

Long.

HenryD ( More Gold for me! )

Bill, I'm a gold bull, but IMHO I'd stay long for 3 years instead. I'd also buy some platinum about 5 ounces per 100 ounces of gold and silver 5000 ounces per 100 ounces of gold, but then you didn't ask that so forget I said it. Ixnay onway ethay islversay andway atinumplay ( %-^ ) )

It is more fun today because F* the conjoneless one has not posted today. It is always quiet and peaceful without him.

long
elliot wave?
homey don't do dat

I like Windows 98 too RJ, but what would you do with Gramps 100g's for the next six months?

I have been able to do that on my Mac for a couple of years now. Run Netscape, PhotoShop, a Scanner, Clarris Works, etc all at the same time no big deal on a Mac!

I just bought a Mac G3 today for the Office, this thing will kick butt.

HighRise

Come on Cooljing, stick your neck out and lay your cojones on the block, what would you do?

Don't want to rag on the parade but isn't this like going on the freerepublic and asking who would want to see klinton impeached?

my 19:21 said 'long'

also, one problemo, mi cajones es nada, gold price moves have shrunk 'em

This may not be relevent to gold but an informal survey I conducted a while back at the beach trying to find out what bait captured the most expensive automobiles showed beyond a shadow of a doubt large breasts in peach colored bikinis tended to catch more expensive cars.

F* is gone! So I have been told.

HighRise

We did shortly ago, after the rain. Poor maybe on materials, but not attitude, Charlie

I think we can all agree that Clinton, Rubin and Larry Summers are wonderful people n'est pas?

I think we can all agree that Clinton, Rubin and Larry Summers are wonderful people n'est pas?

You got that right. We only owned Windows based computers in our business until two years ago. I was astounded to learn Windoes 95 was Mac 84 with bugs. The Mac does it all with never a burp. Jobs sure scewed up. Had he sold the system to IBM Bill Gates would be a silly looking programmer for some out of the way software company.

Ok, I'll put you down as a long in the survey. My cojones are a little shriveled too.

Re survey:
I am long in Gold Mining Stocks, Some PM, and I am long in a Natural Resources/Hard Assets Fund ( Gold and Oil ) .

Long for me is as much as 8.5 years if need be.
I will buy more below $280 Gold, $12 Oil, and/or 5.60% on the Long Bonds. I will continue to average in at those low levels or below.

There will only be more people in the world, therefore more Homes, Cars, Roads, Boat, Appliances etc. ; which means there will be less Food, Fuel, $s and Gold to go around.

HighRise

Robby -

I take no serious umbrage at your assessment of leverage, only in that my firm was somehow being less than straightforward. We run two types of ads, one geared toward delivery, another directed at the speculative investor. I mention leverage to every person I speak with, how else will I know if they are interested? That you witnessed a 90% loss rate in your greener years is a sorry state indeedy, but it has zero bearing on the here and now or in the profit/loss ratio of my clients or clients of others.

When you receive a call for some lets say Morgan dollars Will you not mention some of your more premium coins to the prospective client? You would be derelict if you did not. I cannot count the times a prospective client has told me he was not aware that certain things can be done in these markets, nor would they ever if it were not explained to them.

When a prospective client calls you at $400 gold and asks you what to buy, you will steer him toward this coin or that, yes? What if gold looks very bearish? Hard to short a numismatic. So you only have one direction in which to sell, yes? It must always be the right time to buy because that is the only direction you can trade. When one has the flexibility of trading both sides of the market, it would seem to offer twice the opportunity for profit. Yes, this would seem so.

I like your posts and I find your honesty particularly refreshing. I just caution against painting with too broad a stroke. You seem to indict an entire industry but these generalizations dont work, do they?

Witness the racial hatred spewed on these very pages over the last couple weeks. Any thinking person realizes that the similarities in humans vastly outnumber the minute differences; as any thinking person also knows, these stereotypical representations foster misunderstanding and do nothing to recognize the individual. One may find many examples of a clich, but when one looks with these kind of eyes, all that is perceived is what is expected, and the viewer is less than surprised to find it there.

The magic in life - is in the exceptions.

Indeedy

As I have stated before the Elliot Wave is sometimes better in hindsight than as a predictor of final highs or lows. If this market were to have an explosive third wave rally from here the Elliot Wave prognosticators would simply change their wave count. After the fact, is usually when the picture clears up. At turning points it will do it's best to confound most.

Steve Kaplan pronounces "THE BULL MARKET HAS ENDED". His analysis is a must read every day at http://www.investor1.com/newsletters/kaplan/index.html

Grizz: I think K2 is dead. Although I disagree with you, we need some gold bears on this site to keep the bulls honest.

This site is much more enjoyable to read today. As Susan Powter says, "stop the insanity!" I bought 10 oz. of gold yesterday. I am sure that helped the price go up today.

So what that they have always had a more stable platform?

Who cares that multitasking never needed to be defined because it was always possible?

Mac Moonies, that's what they are.

They are faster and leaner, and they must rub our noses in our MS mess.

Sigh

At least I didn't buy a BetaMax.

OK

As for the 100K....... Hmmmmmmmmmmmm....

If I only have one buy and one sell.......

Long

Yes

What happened to Western deep Levels ( WDEPY ) and Anglo Gold ( AGOLY ) ? I know there has been a merger, but the tickers have been de-listed from the NASDAQ. I can't find any information on the new ticker ( s ) . Does anybody have a clue???

FRED my friend, we need about a million more guys like you and we got a rally going !

AOL Will Sell $500 Million Of New Shares

TechWeb - America Online said Monday it was offering about $500 million of common stock in a block trade that would involve one half of the shares the online service provider filed to offer earlier this month. The block trade will be handled jointly by brokerages Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Lehman Brothers, AOL spokeswoman Tricia Primrose said.

Watch Apple on any major Dow pull back. Apple itself will not retreat much, it is probably a good buy now, but because of the Dow high level I would wait. Apple is a good buy at 25 or below....may not happen now. Jobs has turned the compnay around. They are making money!

I followed and bought Apple all the way down to 14, sold at 27-29 and bought back a little when it pulled back the last time.

My point is, I am doing the same thing with Gold. Apple is of value as is Gold and if you can buy such things at there low, when they are out of favor, one will reap the greatest gains.

One has to be patient and have nerves of steel.
But, IMHO if I can make 50% to 100%+ in 5 to 8 years I will be happy...and I think that is possible.

HighRise

New York--Jun 30--COMEX Aug gold jumped to a 1 1/2-week high following
strong overnight gains as the yen recovered some of its recent losses
against the dollar. Until fresh news hits the market, gold's slavish
devotion to the dollar's movements will continue, traders said. Sep silver
hit a 1 1/2-month top, carried higher by gold and then building on its
gains as it pushed through buy-stops. By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News, Story
.2333

Chamber of Commerce --- Getting Ready For Gold Mining Boom
-- report by VHeadline/VENews  correspondent Patrick J. O'Donoghue

VHeadline/VENews: Tuesday, June 30, 1998 -- A predicted gold-mining boom in southeastern Bolivar State will create around 10,000 jobs, according to Sifontes Municipality Chamber of Commerce ( Consecomercio ) president, Oscar Mota.

Mota says the Supreme Court of Justice ( CSJ ) ruling on Las Cristinas means the reactivation of the Venezuelan Guayana Corporation ( CVG ) and Placer Dome ( PDG ) project and a subsequent boost to the local economy.

Estimates have been given that PDG and Crystallex mining activities at Kilometer 88 will generate 5,000 direct and 4,000 indirect jobs. "Investment in the zone will be around $500 million, which means tax commitments which will be re-invested in the municipality."

Consecomercio says southern Bolivar State businessmen will meet President Rafael Caldera to hand him a report drawn up by the Universidad de Oriente ( UDO ) , which contains an analysis of Sifontes Municipality's social, economic, legal and political reality.

Bolivar State Governor, Jorge Carvajal and CVG's new president, Efrain Carrera Saud will also each receive a copy of the report.

"We are asking the Governor for 7 million bolivares ( $12,963 ) to cover an investment plan next year and we hope to revive tourism, agriculture and small scale mining."

I'd be long on physical gold only, never long the futures cause those paper gold shorts have been making gold eat crow.
So what if I lose a few bucks on the ounce, I'll still hold about 330 ounces.
It'll change, anyone out there know when?

It was interesting to note that Henry D, who has frequently chided me for my sometimes brutal logic, stood meekly aside while the stinking venom flew.

I once asked him where were his protestations when I was at the receiving end of endless attack? Only silence answered.

Last night, his initial assertion was that it was not the poster in question but some sort of joke, even though the ID number clearly identified the origin of these posts.

Never once, in the face of the worst sort of low-life trash this site has ever witnessed, did Henry D rise up in his righteous indignation to point his accusing fingers at the infidels and add his call to cast these unruly demons aside.

Instead, he seemed to enjoy it.

Just something I learned about a fellow poster last night.

The coin has only one side.

I will stick by my initial judgment of this fellow.

Yes

RJ, I will put you down as a long. Kapex what is your vote?

Heh!

Watch it, I have a couple of Betamaxes too, they work great...much better format. It is the standard in commercial use, TV etc.

By the way I never owned 8 Track!

It is always changing..8mm, DVD, etc.

HighRise

Anyones thoughts on the battered down junior gold mining companies and when they might start going back up. There are a lot of great bargains out there for the taking... All comments welcome. Thank you.

From a report today:

"In the interest of defending the Rand, South Africa raised its prime interest rates four percentage points. But the big news for the metals came from the yen:dollar ratio. The rebound of the yen gave the precious metals a shot in the arm, with platinum climbing over $360. Silver had the biggest move. As Jim Steel ( Refco ) told CnnFn, today's move in silver prices "let loose the bulls."

OK

To all:

I think today was a continuation of what began two weeks ago when gold was languishing at 286. It had a $12 rally that week, a meaningful pullback last week, and is now resuming the uptrend.
Two weeks ago, gold led and the XAU did little. But today, the XAU rose over 4%.
Silver also broke out of the congestion it's been in for a few weeks.
Sentiment remains muted to say the least. But here is gold back at $298.

I think the fix is in and monetary officials are committed to bringing down the dollar v. the yen and other currencies.
The Dollar Index's retest of its old high seems now to have failed. Things are much more "in sinc" for a gold rally than two weeks ago.

I don't think we should underestimate the importance of the "outside month" put in by gold in January. It was followed by two months of consolidation then a first breakout in April. Now, 2 1/2 months later, and later than I expected, gold is now confirming the new trend -- UP.

Also, someone, and I think it was RJ, made note of the Friday breakout on June 19. I too think that was important. And notice how quickly sentiment evaporated after it. June 19 seems like a long time ago already. But no technical damage was done after it, just sentiment damage. That can be undone quickly.

That's my perspective. I bought more Arizona Star today. It's down but a significant rally in gold should bring it roaring back.

BTW, Canadian markets are closed tomorrow.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

Anyones thoughts on the battered down junior gold mining companies and when they might start going back up. There are a lot of great bargains out there for the taking... All comments welcomed. Thank you.

So far I have 10 longs and one short ( Strat ) . I think I see a clear pattern developing here. The returns are early and may change when the farm vote from the upstate comes in but right now it is looking good for the longs.

I think first of all, gold must rise substantially before investors start looking seriously at the exploration stocks.
The seniors should rise first, as they are already doing.
I think it will take a sustained rise above $320 to get serious excitement in the juniors.
I think you are correct that they are really beaten down and there are some great bargains.
One guy said to me the other day: "Why are we looking for new orebodies when you can buy an orebody for less than it costs to drill a new one up?"
True enough.

The Preacher

My post was not meant to show a one to one relationship. It just happened that the 5 wave advance on the Dow had completed at the same time that the negative sentiment on the PM stocks was reaching extreme levels. I just addressed both in the same post, as I felt that any rally that began now in the PM stocks was likely to be the start of a third wave advance. The fact that people have a tendency
to dismiss the possibilty of the PM stocks advancing while the stock market declines, only further shows the disbelief that is currently in place with respect to PM stocks. This is what I was trying to point out in my previous post. When you have so complete an aversion to PM stocks that we have seen lately your gut instinct is to join the crowd. Emotions are usually at an extreme at tops and bottoms. The fact that even PM Funds were selling the
very stocks that they are sectored for, tells me that the Bell is being rung. The fact that most cannot see it when it happens is what makes a contrarian sit up and take note. People are just plain down on this sector. If you look at what some of the other markets that impact gold are doing, the dollar looks to start rolling over here and that would be a likely reason ( excuse ) that would be used to explain why gold has advanced. A better reason would
be that everyone that is going to sell gold HAS already sold. Who's left to sell. I really think this is a low risk area to buy PM stocks. Thanks Karl

Preacher, I value you opinions and isights mightily. Where would you park gramps 100k for the next six months? Long or short gold?

Robnoel was much, MUCH too kind. Reference my previous posts... Before anyone on this forum even considers an account at the afore mentioned "institution", please contact me at: gunrunnr@nwfl.net.

Skinny - totally agree! Military hardware seems to be one of the few remaining high priced items that are 98% "Made in the U.S.A." and are still occasionally exported to foriegn countries ( we need to work on that remaining 2% ) And the boys so love to export them the way the F-16s ( and other aircraft ) do! Any more escalations in exports like the one earlier today and we WILL see some spikes in metals, oil & other commodities! ( But don't go "long" on that hope... )

The federal reserve prepares for the year 2000

06/28/98
By Alan Peppard / The Dallas Morning News

Bruce Willis' new meteor movie Armageddon hadn't been released earlier this month when Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was honored for his outstanding public policy by the Harvard Business School Club of Washington, D.C. But some Dallasites at the event report that when asked about the looming year 2000 ( a.k.a. Y2K ) computer crisis, the Fed chairman seemed familiar with the movie's plot.

Mr. Greenspan's Dallasite friend Al Casey was at the event with Dallas businesswoman Pat Patterson. They report that when asked about Y2K, Mr. Greenspan said that the Fed's computers were fine, but he couldn't speak for other organizations with whom the Fed interfaces.

"It's kind of like a meteor movie," Mr. Greenspan said. "You know exactly what's going to happen and when it's going to happen. The only question is whether or not it's going to hit you."

Given the choice between all-long and all short for the next 6 months? Short gold. The gold low could come in Feb 1999. But I would expect an exciting whipsaw in Oct-Nov along the way, for real life traders who are not limited by your grandfather's rules.

Anybody else see the Nightly Business Report tonight? Ed Yardeni has now raised to 70% his odds on a US recession by 1999, and a 30% drop in the stock market during the next year, all because of the drag on businesses that have to divert resources into Y2K preparedness and repairs.

The Downunders have yet to be heard from....

From what my fair cousin South Africa?

And how say you New Zealand?

Gather Aussies and speak thy hopes

But pray, good brothers

Match them to our own

So thy hearts flutter

may then be known.

Lets roll those dice. December '98 310 Call Options closed at $640 today.
I'll take a 156 of those babies for $98,840.00. That gives us 15,600 ozs. of their paper and an upside that would grab the attentition of any Investement Banker east of Dallas. We can close the deal prior to y2k, convert to physical and head to the nearest Island.

You singled me out... me. I'm honored, to say the least.

Farfel's behavior has been inexcusable. He knows it, and so do you. Even at your worst ( rude, that is ) , you still stay within the bounds of good taste... F* hasn't. I have to conclude that either he's gone over the edge or he's pulling our collective legs. I mentioned no more, no less ( except to make a small similarity with your interrogative and victimized style of argument ) .

Take this response for what it's worth, sir ... my sun certainly doesn't rise or set on your off-topic words of wisdom. I'll read your advise, but I have the luxury of discarding the rest.

HenryD

Y2K bug hits potential presidential candidate Al Gore

by Cath Everett

The Millenium bug is becoming an increasingly political issue in Washington DC as the Republicans line up to attack potential presidential candidate and Democrat vice president Al Gore over his record on tackling the Year 2000 issue.

Gore has long put himself forward as the USs most IT-literate politician, a situation that has prompted rivals to begin trying to pin responsibility for any potential Millenium disaster on him. Gore is widely considered the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, but the Year 2000 problem is likely to kick in just as the campaign starts, which makes the timing politically perfect for a Republican broadside.

According to US reports, Steve Forbes, the Republican candidate, is already using the Year 2000 issue as a standard part of his speeches, but says his party is likely to air radio advertisements attacking Gore and President Clinton for their lack of leadership on the problem in future.

In a speech last week at the World Congress on Information Technology, Forbes said: "Mr Vice President, youre the Administrations technology point man. What have you been doing for the past five years?"

A conservative think-tank, the Center for Security Policy, has also already published eight documents on the situation since January, bearing headlines such as "Wheres Al?" and "Als Mess", while earlier this month, Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house, said Clinton and Gore needed to do more to tackle the problem.

He also warned: "I cant imagine anything more destructive for Gores political future than to talk about the Information Superhighway and then to have the largest wreck in history on the first of January 2000."

White House officials expect Clinton to take the lead on the issue as he is not running for president again and say he will deliver his first full speech on the subject within the next couple of weeks.

But critics attest that both men should do more to raise national awareness of the issue, ensure that federal agencies are fixing their systems and help state governments and small businesses cope with it.




 1998 VNU Business Publications Ltd

Gee, wish I had a gramps like that... My vote's long.

and then I would go to Vegas for two weeks and then buy that K-Tel Vegimatic I've wanted for so long and thenI'd buy that sporty FirenZa I always wanted and then a good stereo an an an then I'd buy a camper an an then I'd get golden lame` covered bean bag furniture and then I always wanted one of those clapper things to turn my lights on and off and then I'd have to ask you guys if you would lend me a couple of bucks for gas for my camper.Why don't you ever make these really good investments?

I have no illusions that you know your own mind

I just noticed the tilt

That's all

A bias is a bias is a bias

Let's be honest and call it such

OK

Enough said......

Example is plausible, however, it shows one more time a total ignorance of journalists writing about Y2K. This is not the right forum, however, let me say that if Link Editor was at fault, it was NOT because it was Y2K non-compliant. The only "non-compliant" feature of Link editor would be that it puts "creation date" of executable in executable binary file, however, it would not cause some programs to continuing running and creating invoices on 43rd day. Yes, there may be a problem old link editor not being able to deal with new object files when "bad" Link Editor does the wrong alignment of data variables, however this has NOTHING to do with Y2K!!
No go ahead all "binary code" programmers and tell me that I missed something. I'll be glad to learn and will post a humble apology

Sorry to bother you with "non-gold" details.

Damned Aussies. ( with endearment ) Forgive them Father they know not what they do. ( Shorting )

Have you tried AAGIY Anglo American Gold Investment Co Ltd or
ALM.AL Anglo Minerals Ltd ? Just guessing.

I noticed Ed Yardeni on Nightly Business Report tonight. I have a new respect for that show. First James Dines and now this. Who would have guessed that PBS would be the only network with balanced reporting.

To: MoReGoLd
My million friends an I will keep buying until we get gold up to $30,000.

attacks on me by Farfetched re: anti-semitism. None of you came to my defense & I'm well aware that a large % of the posters on this board are Jews. Furthermore, althoughn the rabid, mad dog attacked my wife, no one spoke out. To say I was disappointed would be an understatement.

Except for a very few posters on this board, I'm disappointed with the lot of you & think most of you are a bunch of insensitive, gutless wonders.

Easy come easy go!
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

HighRise

Robby -

One final comment on the broker thingie.

If the client does not move, the broker is helpless.

Client and broker: its a two way street.

I spoke with another broker in New York recently who had a client loose some money in silver. I asked if he recommended a silver short in the 6.30 range, he said he did, but the client wouldnt listen. I asked if he bought platinum down here when it was low, he said he made the recommendation but the client again did not listen. I asked him why, and he told me the client, "Just wants to be sure".

There is no such thing in these markets.

It is all a risk

Yes

Don't always do the opposite of what I say. Did I say how I always wanted a bright red 1974 Cadillac with white interior and a set of horns on the hood. I wonder if that guy in Bend Oregon still has his?

G'day mate. Suggest you go to a wolf-pack meeting and ask "Who likes to eat lamb?"

Did Kitco go to sleep and fall off the graph?????

Steve Kaplan has declared today as the end of the BULL MARKET.
Let's hope he's right....
http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

old ( CMX )
Aug
297.8
299.0
297.5
298.1 6/30/98 17:54 298.7 298.2
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm f

A/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
June 30, 1998
9:05PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
296.75
297.25
+0.15 +0.05%
http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

HighRise

Gold is trading at its highs right now up .90

There isn't one poster here that doesn't hold a "tilt" one way or ANOTHER. Opinion, perspective, conviction, view, sentiment, feeling, belief, persuasion... which one of these do you wish to target tonight at my expense? Are these exclusively yours? Get real, RJ!

I'll not be your source of entertainment or surrogate Farfel. Take your grievance to him, Sir.

But I will accept one bit of advise from you .... Enough said.

Indeed.

Yes.

I'm still long on gold, at least with the 100K.

You know I am empathetic to being at the receiving end of the club, and I thank you for you stalwart and humorous support of me in the past.

The tone of the argument last night was so ugly and vicious, I can well see why most choose to stay right out of it. It was almost embarrassing to read, like witnessing a breakdown right before our eyes. Most were stunned into silence. There are no winners in that kind of brawl, but I believe the overwhelming majority of Kitco readers agree that that kind of rabid frothing is not welcome here.

You have good right to be offended.

OK

Agreed

All:

The action today in silver was very cool, that is if you were long. What of the future?

The biggest known feature of the market is the large concentration of shorts in the hands of a few big spec funds. The MO of one of the funds is fairly well known. Somewhere around the 200 day moving average they are going to come in and cover, and somewhere beyond that they may get long. The potential swing from full short, where these funds are reputed to be, to full long ( where the bulls fervently wish they are going ) could amount to something on the order of 200 million ounces of silver. This is a very, very large quantity.

Today's trading had a very strange quality to it in that there was absolutely no conviction in the silver market until very late in the day. All morning long the options were being sold hard even though the price of silver was going up. The boys had seen these failures at 540 so often they figured that another late day swoon was on the way. Sell those calls and pocket that easy money. And then not.

With silver going out at the highs for the month, the charts have taken on a much better look. The bear has been wounded. The big question remains as to whether the blood spoor is large enough to attract a feeding frenzy.

My gut ( extremely biased and slanted bullish opinion ) is that the setup is in place. The technical funds are big short, Goldman may at the moment control nearly half the Comex inventories, and the Yen is starting to deliver some pain to those who saw a sure thing. My sequence is that the next 20 or so cents in silver comes on little to no volume as the dealers just mark it up. At about the 575 level the short funds begin to come in to cover their loads. In fairly instantaneous fashion the price moves to 625. Along with this silver move, gold slices through 300 and the Yen starts humming. Sometime in the next week or two, Goldman starts moving the Comex silver out of the warehouse. There are some days when stocks fall big numbers, like 5 million ounces. Everyone who got on board the silver train too late the first time and got blown out on the retracement swears that they won't miss it again. In a frenzy of short covering and long positioning silver blows through the old highs and is 10 dollars before the dog days of August.

T'is the stuff of dreams.

They did not speak out
Although the silence was loud
No, they turned away

I'll pay a nickel to someone who can post a good nickel chart. Amazing how many of our Aussie gold miners are developing nickel projects.

a crop of dennil floss
Raisin it up
waxin it down
in a little white box
I could sell up town.
By myself I wouldn't have no boss
But I'd be
Raisin my lonely dental floss.
I'd be ridin up and down the Border
with my zircon encrusted tweezers shineing on a moonlighty night
and every other wrangler would say isn't he grand!
That why I'm movin to Montana soon
Gonna be a Dental floss Tycoon
Yippy yi yo to kyyea.


Roughly ...The late great Frank Zappa. ( off topic... Go Gold! )

Have you come across any references to "Time Warping"?
I don't fully understand the process but it seems some confusion between the bios clock and real time clock writing to each other.

Is this effect real???

I have come across 3 seperate references to this and it seems well explained - logical.

Just call me curious.

Thanks.

Suppose the grandfather's gift was predicated on a buy of 300 ounces of physical gold versus the equivalant in government securities but the grandson was in an inflexible 401k. He won't be vested for 3 years so is unable to make early withdrawel or change regardless of the market? What then? What if he were in the 401k for 10 years, 10 years, 30 years?

Food for thought while pondering this: http://megadodo.com/articles/8R56.html

what if the 401k were 3, 10, 20, 30 yesrs? not 3,10,10,30!

GC M8
Exchange - COMX


As of: Jun 30, 1998 @ 9:26 pm ET
Last
2937
Change
-1

RJ-thanks for your support. What really bothers me , is that I ended up in a vendatta with the mad, running, rabid, dog by defending others. Yet no one defended me. Anyway, your posts are among the few that are worthwhile reading & I always search them out.

Nickel demand is not declining with all the new construction on the horizon.

old ( CMX )
Aug
297.8
299.0
297.5
298.2b
+0.1
6/30/98
18:16
298.5
298.2
Silver ( CMX )
Jul
550.0
552.5
549.0
552.5
+1.8
6/30/98
17:53
559.5
549.0
Silver ( CMX )
Sep
553.0
558.0
551.5
557.0b
+3.5
6/30/98
18:20
557.5
556.5

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

This isn't a democracy, it's a marketplace...truth be known, I'm long physical. Looking at oil/commodities, I figure it'll take six months plus for gold to turn around. The only hope for gold bull is an intense period of human suffering...stock market crash, war, etc. I don't hope for any of that, but I certainly don't rule it out. I don't wish harm upon others. But I see dark clouds on the horizon...that's why I got a cellar & that's why I got gold. Maybe I can be of service to my neighbors someday.

I've got to be bullish for the next six months. I think January was a major bottom. The paper money/debt system is collapsing. Devaluing the dollar will help a little. But more devaluation will have to come later. And more and more and more until all the debts from the spending spree have been paid and gold is placed back at the center of the world's economic system.

How's that?

The Preacher

Somebody just got a good deal!
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

Isn't gold trading wonderful? We will never know what that blip was.

HighRise

.

Ink wiring minds whant to... Know?

Again I am empathetic to being attacked because of the defense of another.

I have learned though, that once passions are inflamed, the lightning rod effect takes over and those most vocal are those most visible.

I learned another thing:

I spent a lot of time and effort trying to prove something a few weeks ago.

Time just proved it for me.

I think JD tried to tell me that.

I am never to old to learn.

Huh uh

Preacher

Did B. Quartermain mention anything about reserve estimates for
the Silver Reef Project in Utah. You forced him to come clean on
Russia

Well folks, I went away for a couple of days, so all that talk about Farfel was not clear to me until I want and read the last night posts.
Folks, this forum has seen a lot, however the last night was the most despicable show of human behavior I saw on this forum. I am sorry James, and the rest of people who were attacked by the rabid Farfel, and I would say that anybody who did not try to stop this sheer nonsense is a guilty as Farfel.

Now, if you want to, go ahead and accuse me of being anti-Semite. Yes, I am Catholic, but first I am a human. Reading the last night post make me sick and it would make me sick the same way if Catholic poster was attacking Jews the way Farfel did the other way around!

Looks like this forum is attracting more and more sick minds on the Internet - not a good sign for gold!!

Nick:

Read'em and weep.

http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/php/Prices/choice.html

Even if you're wrong, your post brightened my day. Folks here need a little encouragement, not to raise false hopes, but to remind them that the PM's also go UP when there is a reason. Thanks Sooooooooooo, silver! GO!.

Go gold! Although it sounds trite... Happy Canada Day...The promised land. ( Until natural gas wood and oil are all consumed )

factors that we all have to deal with is fear
and greed.....the point is however as I said
before is not Monex or you, I recommend to my
clients to buy and hold irrespective of what
the product is,no I dont steer them towards
numismatics,the spread I charge between
bullion and numis is the same,therefore I
have no bias either way....I do however
inform them that numis has out performed
bullion.....my spread between gold bullion
spot and retail is $10.00 the same goes for
numis check out my web page ......I am one of
only a few who posts prices....the majority
of dealers tell you why to buy but don't post
prices....reason hide the spread.......just
as there are horses for courses....just
trying to inject a little honesty from
someone who has swam with the sharks

I was going to vote to go long a while back, but then a mega-thunderstorm dropped an oak tree on my roof. The chainsaw has had a workout. Go long with Gramps $100k, but take some extra money out of the cookie jar and buy some out-of-the-money puts, say at 250 or so to cover the other possibility. I smell currency ( read US dollar ) crisis sometime during 1998; gold going up isn't a slam dunk under those conditions, but its a pretty good bet.

I'm sorry if by my shutting out the rabid dog noises and not responding, you felt that no one was coming to your defense. Frankly, the assaults appeared to be a psychotic meltdown, and it seemed best not to feed it, for it would surely only have triggered yet more malice. For the sake of Kitco, and hoping that those such as clone wouldn't give up on this open forum platform as a valuable open exchange, I just scanned over the posts, and ignored the arguments as much as possible.

Meltdowns on this medium seem as regular as waves to the sea. Yet, they don't really diminish the value of the whole, merely obscure it temporarily.

Promey

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Nickle.jpg

Well put.....

There are some here ( me ) who would have only inflamed the irresponsible poster, regardless of what they ( I ) said. Those who know me know where I would stand.

That said, I still share the guilt of watching a neighbor be mugged.

then back into physical in one year. The shares will outperform
physical, but be out of paper by mid-1999.

OK Robby,

I never could beat 4 aces

"Someone who can not enjoy a meal unless he is sure someone is going hungry." Just heard this on German short wave I had to post it as it rings soo true. Thoughts?

There was nothing anyone could do or say that would improve the situation last night.

There was one other time that I know of when he did the same thing - he had either totally flipped out or was under the influence of something. No one can be rational with an irrational individual.

One just becomes a co-dependent when trying to engage such a person in that condition. He is really sick.

Enough Said,

HighRise

I was witness to that charade last night but being something of a newbie here, what do you say or do? I certainly got to see the players. I am reminded of an incident I was involved in when I was younger. A buddy of mine was hell bent on fighting some else on a busy street in front of some bars. It became an ongoing game of tag and at one point I tried to break it up. Sh*t, everyone was swinging at me. Last time I tried that. I'm also reminded of a "coonass" I used to know. Great guy, but he fought just for the fun of it. He's dead now. Murdered. Peace.

It was a sad day for Kitco. The fact that the mad one could accuse me of anti-semitism several times & not be refuted by anyone on this board speaks volumes for the lack of guts & integrity by the milquetoasts who post here.

of any help or response. The only person in need was F*. Stand by your fellow Kitcoites. Show some heart.

You were just fine. How could you feel threatened? By what I read the only response of anyone should have been to extend a helping hand. Did you offer a helping hand or a backhand? How harmed were you, really?

Come now, rise above this and show your heart. You too RJ...nevermind...you'll never get it anyway.

Tom

And gold and gold shares are about to take off! They are simply waiting for any bit of bullish news or gold related events. The yen at 1.35 would push gold well above $300, positive news out of Europe would have the same effect! So sit back and enjoy, we have waited a very long time for our friend the gold bull to come out of hibernation. He is about to appear and the shorts are about to walk a mile or more in our shoes!

They had Al Gore do the press briefing on the Iraq Attack, trying to give him a head start at the next election, Commander in Chief and all that rot.

It occurred to me that I have never seen anyone look more un-presidential than Gore.

Cept maybe Dukemajen ( I know I spelled that wrong )

point of view. I hope he purges what ever demons torment him,
and returns to the Kitco community. Please respect his anguish.

ok

& yourself an anti-semite would'nt you be offended. Then again, maybe you're right & he just flipped out.

There is a time when a man refutes himself. I agree with Rhody. further I think this is one time when less is more.

I didn't talk to Quartermain about Silver Reef. I discussed it with Paul LaFontaine, but don't now remember what he said. Sorry.
There was more discussion on Bowdens in Australia.

The Preacher

Al's a joke...I may not know where gold's going but politics is much easier. Clinton will go out as unpopular as a president ever was and whoever runs on the republican ticket in 2000 ( even Quayle! ) will be our next.

Should not fall for these anti-semetic ravings. WE need to create a world where everyone is equal in the eyes of the law. Further we need to work against excessive wealth accumulation by too small of a group. Hence, taxation and regulation to maintain TRUE FREEDOM! VIVA FDR may his spirit soon rise again!

I first posted on Kitco ( last year ) when I felt compelled to enter into one of the unfortunate food fights. At the time, honestly feeling that interjecting a voice of rationality could bring sanity to the fracas. Alas, the only result was an exponential expansion of the trouble. In these moments, the Kitco guidelines are really correct, ignoring the noise serves to isolate it. Respond to it, and all appear to be madmen. Please, enough said.

Namast

Promey

Chief Eco ( Cooper ) at Nesbitt Burns said to-day S&P is up 13 % ,but the +/- of each stock when combined is DOWN 15% .

COMMENTS PLEASE ( GOLD-YES )

Sticks and stones... you know the rest. I do not know you or your spouse and I'm sure F* does not either. Can you really take offense to the posts of someone who does not know you. Think long an hard on this.

Cyberspace...do you really care what someone you know not posts? Think man...who do you trust? Only be offended by a peron you trust. Others do not matter. Yes?

Tom

Yes so long as he does'nt attack you personally we'll treat him like the demented uncle in the attic.

I don't think the market believes the POG surge was any more than
a flash in the pan. Bema actually declined, and TVX was up only
6 cents. The POG must put on a several day rally and breach $306
to really move the market. If the DOW really has topped and begins
to slide, maybe we shall finally see that traditional rotation into
gold.

Harmony showed some strength, but again on low volume. Speaking of
Harmony, ( hgmcy ) does anyone know the new total for shares issued?
I just bought some at $US3.75 and I would like to know if I paid
2 dollars per reserve oz or 3 dollars. ( Harmony just merged with
Evander for shares plus cash deal, so total reserves are now over 100
million ozs. )

I am very much in agreement with your reaction ( or lack thereof ) to that mess yesterday. I guess this site is just going through a psychological bear, with occasional interludes of its once outstanding quality still shining through. If I could contribute to that quality I would, but since it is said much better by others I have resorted to criticism ( it would probably be better for me to keep silent altogether, as an example to others who feel they must bring this site down to their level ) . Let's just say the learning curve is starting to flatten out - some interesting posts today though.
- c

FROM US YANKS, TO ALL OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH!

I have to admit that I avoid some areas of Y2K. There is too much things going on. There are better experts who focus on BIOS and RTC, I deal mostly with large IS systems where RTC and BIOS don't play. However, as anybody in this Y2K craze, I had to learn at least a bit about this specific issue. So, as far as my limited focus on BIOS and RTC tels me, yes, it could happen. All of it depends on a specific implementation. The most basic problem is that RTC is a real time "ticker" which can overflow. This means, that after you shut down the system, at a boot time RTC would send the system date back to some old value. Your reset the system clock to a correct date, however, after a reboot back to the bad date we go. Unfortunately, some system software may derive date directly from RTC, despite that BIOS was set to a correct date.

I won't try to go any deeper, as I said there are better people to do that ( e.g. Karl Feilder from Greenwich Mean Time in South Africa, Tom Becker in the US, etc. )

Looks like yesterday was one for old Farfetched Farfel........


Go Pegasus.............ahhhhhhhh...........

D.A. wrote "Ain't.no.such.thing.as.good.nickel.chart"

And he posted this grim chart:

http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/php/Prices/choice.html

Consider:

Virtually ALL Russian PGM production comes as a byproduct of nickel mining. Record lows in nickel make it hard to put Norilsk on a paying basis.

My horizons are filled with platinum

Indeedy

Short for 6 months; then LONG half physical, half miners. Until another 6 months; then take my profits and head for the hills and be in my den by mid July!! There is gonna be SUCH A BEAR US MARKET this year, it will take everything with it; Then a bounce, then Y2k will finish it off.

Mtn Bear

glad to hear you're not giving up this grand experiment. Several posters have had far more reason to abandon this medium, and despite vicious personal attacks, continue to help create this unique collaboration. To them, my hat is off! On another vein, go ahead, try out your voice, you may be pleasantly surprised.

Namast

Has done a wonderful job in China and his policy is correct. History is replete with examples of appeasing and engaging dictatorships which has maintained the peace and encouraged change in the dictator country. Just ask Neville Chamberlain as it did work great for nine months with Germany in 1938.

Further as a stock market based economy we have to get over any notion of humanism and recognize that profit is the ultimate morality. It really makes me sick to read about the efficient HMO system being vilified. So people get cancer and are not referred to specialists..what do they want higher premiums.. this bleeding heart crap is really sickening..in the end we are all dead anyway. This stuff about allowing people in HMOs to get treatment if they need it is really just another blatant money grab by the greedy lawyers to destroy an efficient system.

Thanks for the suggestion. I hadn't thought of AAGIY.

I agree with you on ( viva ) FDR and on Clinton getting his licks in on the Chinese, but you miss the mark on HMOs. HMOs are not an efficient system. They are , like many corporations, salary heavy ( very ) managers. Greedy doctors have been displaced by greedy execs.

The mentally ill/Put under the window sill/Will come back to haunt

My HMO sequel was tongue in cheek. The whole thing is despicable. My HMO said that I didnt need a chest x ray as part of a physical as if they found anything there it would be too late anyway.. context...I used to smoke 5 yrs ago and I smoked for 15 years.

My friends,

The right treatment for poster like Farfel last night is just to post "I may respect your other views but you are wrong today so stop this nonsense and apologize". After that, giving him the same treatment as you are giving ROR today - no response.

Say what you HAVE to say but don't respond to any follow up discussions ( there is no reason to argue with "temporary insane" )

Got back from a short trip to Rome today, and I was amazed at the proliferation of Euro flags being flown next to the Italian flag. A circle of aurum-yellow stars on a blue background. Italians aren't much known for showing the flag, but geez, even the cars had dual flag icons!

I asked an Italian banker for his opinion on the euro currency. He told me that one good side-effect was that oil-producing states have agreed to take the euro in place of the dollar, obviating the need to convert the European currencies, for a small fee, at London financial centers. This will not be necessary in 18 months, as the euro can be used for the purchase of oil. Should be some interesting currency gyrations ahead.

Tom

http://www.kitconet.com/silver.graph.html

ROR..WHO TAUGHT YOU ALL THAT MUSH..

I've taken a step back from Kitco recently. I believe I had become a bit too involved in reading the posts and reacting to my sinking gold investments. I actually stopped looking at the daily price of gold fluctuations and the day to day value of my portfolio. Much for the better. My posts of "Kitcoholic" that started as a jest, maybe more true ( at least for me ) than I cared to admit. The great thing about the internet though is that you can just turn off the screen and walk away. I did catch last nights posts though. It seemed clear to me that Farfel wanted out of Kitco and that was his way to do it, down in Flames, attacked from all directions. He will be better for it. I had a very negative opinion of the internet until I got to Kitco. I felt all the complexities of human relations were lost on this medium. Kitco proved me wrong. Good luck to you Farfel............

And if you are in the US buy gold as it will be the only way you keep up with the living stds of the new economically dominant Socialist Democratic model. Demand your social security and dont give an inch on raising the retirement age. But if it is raised hey you must be disabled right? With a good lawyer you are and you will get the money owed to you as they CANT RAISE THE AGE OF DISABILITY. Good Lawyers think and protect those in need. BTW the new BR law is a lawyers and accountants employment act....Thanks NEWT

Run spot run.

To remember this, I had to get the Ovation out and play it.

For those that want to play along, it goes like this:

( D,G7,D,E,A7,D,G7,D,G7,D,E,A7,D,D7,G,A,C,G,A,C,G,Bm,Em,Asus4,A,D,G7 )

The lunatic is on the grass

The lunatic is on the grass

Remembering games and daisy chains and laughs

Got to keep the loonies on the path

The lunatic is in the hall

The lunatics are in my hall

The paper holds their folded faces to the floor

And everyday the paperboy brings more

And if the damn breaks open many years too soon

And if there is no room up on the hill

And if you head explodes with dark forebodings too

Ill see you on the dark side of the moon

The lunatic is in my head

The lunatic is in my head

You raise the blade, you make the change

You rearrange me till Im sane

You lock the door and throw away the key

Theres someone in my head but its not me

And if the cloud bursts thunder in your ears

You shout and no one seems to hear

And if the band youre in starts playing different tunes

Ill see you on the dark side of the moon

Those younger than 20 or older than 60 may think I wrote this.

Everyone in between knows it was Roger Waters

At his prime

BEIJING ( AP ) - A thousand retirees from a nearly bankrupt state auto maker disrupted traffic in a central Chinese city Tuesday to protest a lack of pension payments, a human rights group reported.

The protesters from Wuhan's Light Auto Works General factory blocked streets for 2 1/2 hours before city officials agreed to give them three months of overdue pension payments, the Information Center of Human Rights and Democratic Movement in China reported.

The protest was the sixth this month in the ailing industrial city and is part of a nationwide wave of unrest by workers as state factories cut jobs to cope with government-ordered market reforms.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101y.htm

HighRise

Smith & Wesson beats 4 Aces. ;- )

Great post....least we forget "Money" and "Time" and all the other things that make us crazy. I'll see you on the dark side.....

have grandfather's document contested, go short on internet stocks for the next three days, then retire.

hehe, i mean, long on gold.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

2 ) 6% ownership of HARMONY GOLD MINING ( HGMCY )
Harmony was first formed in 1950. When it was acquired by Randgold in 1995, it had suffered 6 years of declining production. It was then reorganized. First it bought the Unisel mine in 1997. Then it bought the Lydenberg Exploration ( Lydex. ) . Next it bought all of Vermuelenskrall Noord with its mineral rights...a crazy name, but eminently significant because of its significant resource base, and the contiguity it demonstrates between Harmony and Unisel. Later came the purchase of Saiiplaas No.3 shaft from Freegold. Finally in late 1997 it added Consolidated Modderfontein and Grootvlei.

These mergers and acquisitions increased Harmony's gold reserves from 20 million oz two years ago to 70 million oz today. Its gold production rate has increased from 680,000 oz in 1997 to an expected 850,000 oz this year -- and is targeted for one million oz in the year 2000. Gentlemen, that's world-class gold production.

Harmony plans to reduce cash costs from their old level of about $330/oz to 280$/oz and are almost there now. The acquisition of Lydex Exploration has also given Harmony added mineral rights inside and out side the Republic of South Africa - with exploration permits at Ajuman in Ghana, and Kisoro in Uganda. Moreover, Harmony has obtained permission from the SARB to market 1/3 of its own gold production directly. It has also commissioned its own independent gold refinery. It plans to commence a jewelry factory.

Harmony has 49.04 million shares outstanding. And in light of its gold reserves/resources of 70 million oz., this makes every share worth 70/49.04... or equivalent to 1.4 oz of gold per share. In sharp contrast Barrick Gold has ONLY 76 million oz of gold reserves and resources vis-a-vis 373 million shares outstanding, producing a ratio of 76/373, or A MISERELY 0.2 oz. of gold per share. Now consider the market's inequity in valuating the shares of the two companies. Barrick Gold sells for roughly $20 a share, while Harmony with about SEVEN TIMES as much gold reserves per share is only afforded a market price of $3.50. Based upon gold reserves per share, and using Barrick Gold's market valuation as the 'yardstick,' Harmony should command a market price of $140 per share ( $20X7 ) .

Consequently, it might be logically and reasonably be stated that Harmony shares are SELLING AT A DISCOUNT OF 97.5% --- based upon gold reserves per share, and using Barrick Gold as the 'yardstick.'

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

2 ) 6% ownership of HARMONY GOLD MINING ( HGMCY )
Harmony was first formed in 1950. When it was acquired by Randgold in 1995, it had suffered 6 years of declining production. It was then reorganized. First it bought the Unisel mine in 1997. Then it bought the Lydenberg Exploration ( Lydex. ) . Next it bought all of Vermuelenskrall Noord with its mineral rights...a crazy name, but eminently significant because of its significant resource base, and the contiguity it demonstrates between Harmony and Unisel. Later came the purchase of Saiiplaas No.3 shaft from Freegold. Finally in late 1997 it added Consolidated Modderfontein and Grootvlei.

These mergers and acquisitions increased Harmony's gold reserves from 20 million oz two years ago to 70 million oz today. Its gold production rate has increased from 680,000 oz in 1997 to an expected 850,000 oz this year -- and is targeted for one million oz in the year 2000. Gentlemen, that's world-class gold production.

Harmony plans to reduce cash costs from their old level of about $330/oz to 280$/oz and are almost there now. The acquisition of Lydex Exploration has also given Harmony added mineral rights inside and out side the Republic of South Africa - with exploration permits at Ajuman in Ghana, and Kisoro in Uganda. Moreover, Harmony has obtained permission from the SARB to market 1/3 of its own gold production directly. It has also commissioned its own independent gold refinery. It plans to commence a jewelry factory.

Harmony has 49.04 million shares outstanding. And in light of its gold reserves/resources of 70 million oz., this makes every share worth 70/49.04... or equivalent to 1.4 oz of gold per share. In sharp contrast Barrick Gold has ONLY 76 million oz of gold reserves and resources vis-a-vis 373 million shares outstanding, producing a ratio of 76/373, or A MISERELY 0.2 oz. of gold per share. Now consider the market's inequity in valuating the shares of the two companies. Barrick Gold sells for roughly $20 a share, while Harmony with about SEVEN TIMES as much gold reserves per share is only afforded a market price of $3.50. Based upon gold reserves per share, and using Barrick Gold's market valuation as the 'yardstick,' Harmony should command a market price of $140 per share ( $20X7 ) .

Consequently, it might be logically and reasonably be stated that Harmony shares are SELLING AT A DISCOUNT OF 97.5% --- based upon gold reserves per share, and using Barrick Gold as the 'yardstick.'