Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:00 - ID#335190)
Miro @ 22:18
Miro you show a concern for my post at 21:43 such as " OK, so what are you trying to say?

I best ask the same of you. Are you demanding that any and all reference to JEW, is a subject that can not be presented. Hell, I am not the nation, or person, doing the DNA tests. I see some very important cause and effect, to such actions. In addition, I did not write the news item, nor did I write the Magna Carta

I expect such a question as posed, is an action trying to be a censor ( bully ) , I have no use for a censor ( bully ) . No, such questions, can not intimidate me. I consider the question and actions, of nation's against JEW'S, are no less or greater, than any other nation that attacks their citizen's. ( best the question be posed, to those that support the JEW Religion, right )

Yes, I will raise the issue of JEW, as often as necessary to inform and educate, those other citizen's that are not aware of such happenings, by the leaders of the JEW Nation/Religion.

Well, until I am given the boot by Bart eh!

I expect the JEW ( holocaust ) Gold, of WW II, is also off topic eh! I am sorry you consider that JEW is a RED FLAG, and unless a person is JEW, such person's must be attacked, regardless of the substance of the news item.

I am, a part of the first nation's people. European people, have made the remark "A GOOD indian, is a DEAD indian" May I expect you to censor such remarks. No I do not. Let it be told, for those that promote such statements, are exposed. As are the JEW nation leaders, regarding, their demand for DNA.

Religion, is now a state of DNA, I do not think so. But, others at this site may believe that religion can be shown via DNA. I am here to learn, as are others.

Take Care.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:04 - ID#244418)
It's interesting that there was a volume of 1,000 Dec 99 Comex Gold puts with a strike price of 310 today, shown at
p.s.: I suspect that Farfel was J. Orlin Grabbe.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:08 - ID#45173)
For a while there I figured
Bart decided to get rid of all of us ; )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:09 - ID#284255)
From - ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
Yardeni Ups Recession Likelihood; IW Expert Cites Cyber Threats
Speaking at a Washington, D.C. press conference this week, Deutsche, Morgan, Grenfell Chief Economist Edward Yardeni raised his "subjective probability" forecast of a recession from 60 percent to 70 percent.

Yardeni compared the Y2K situation to the 1973-1974 oil shortage. "in a very similar way, I believe a disruption in the flow of information, which is clearly vitally important for running our businesses and our governments, can also cause a global recession." Yardeni pointed out that the oil shortage effectively ended when motorists were able to refill their tanks. Corrupted data in the Year 2000 could be water in nation's economic gas line.

Yardeni called global leadership on the issue "utterly pathetic" and the Y2K Conversion Council efforts in the U.S. "dangerously inadequate." "They are creating the false impression that we are dealing with the problem in every aspect and, therefore, there is no reason to really be concerned about it, that the policymakers are addressing the issue," Yardeni said.

If not impressed by the federal government effort, Yardeni indicated that at least Uncle Sam is up front about federal agency activities. "The only organization on the planet Earth that is providing quarterly progress reports is the U.S. Government. Other governments are not doing the same. Businesses are not doing the same," Yardeni said. The economist said the "full monty" is needed on this issue.

Arnaud de Borchgrave, senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies working in the area of cybercrime, cyberterrorism and cyberwarfare, also spoke at the press conference. He said the information warfare ( IW ) community is wary of adversaries who may consider launching a cyberattack under the guise of a Year 2000 disturbance. de Borchgrave said experts believe that "the Year 2000 crisis may be exploited by our adversaries at a time when it will be impossible to distinguish between computer breakdowns and an IW attack."

Or real Y2K problems could be misinterpreted as cyberwar:

De Borchgrave said, "It seems to me that the national security dimensions of the Y2K were made crystal clear by Bill Cohen at a NATO Conference in Brussels three weeks ago when he offered his Russian opposite member whatever help he was to provide to prevent, as he put it 'confusion or unthinkable calamity when Y2K problems might blank out early warning computers and panicked officers might assume or suspect Western sabotage and spring into action.'"

De Borchgrave said the Russian government sent its first Y2K compliance warning just over one month ago. "Until then only one third of Russia's 50 leading companies had ever heard of Y2K," he said.

Yardeni and de Borchgrave spoke at a press conference conducted by the National Association of Manufacturers ( NAM ) . NAM President Jerry Jasinowski called Y2K "an extraordinarily large global disaster in the making"

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:17 - ID#153111)
Sorry but any automobile that operates on 4 D-Cells will always be reseved for Barbie and Ken. Yes superconductors will do amazing things but they will not create energy from nothing. As it is, in electrical transmission a lot of energy is lost through copper resistance losses ( IR squaired losses ) . This produces a small voltage loss and energy is lost through heat thus generated. In motors copper, or any ordinary conductor, makes the coil almost as much a heater as a inductor due to its internal resistance and that makes them less that a perfect motor.

Superconductors will bring the most out of many divices but you'll never get 100 HP output with out at least a 100 HP input.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:26 - ID#252150)
Chrisophilo@AU backed currencies--I've noticed several references to our
Loonie being under attack because of low AU backing/reserves. Italy has large AU reserves. Guess which 2 Countries in the G7 have the largest debt to GDP? Right--Italy & Canada. Guess which Countries have the highest real interest rates? Right again. It seems that Italy's large AU reserves have'nt helped them with lower interest rates. Don't you think it's possible that are Loonie is under attack because of our high debt & also because our economy is still mainly comodity based & this would be the case regardless of the amount of our AU reserves?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:28 - ID#401460)

Gold Chart, it is stirring?


(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:30 - ID#335190)
Clinton urges Hong Kong to help Asian economy

HONG KONG ( AP ) -- One year after China took command of Hong Kong, U.S. President Bill Clinton said today this once-booming port city can help "lead Asia out of turbulent times" in financial markets.

Clinton said, "Political freedom, respect for human rights and support for representative government are both morally right and ultimately the best guarantor of the stability in the world of the 21st century."

Clinton's address carried a political and economic message of co-operation and trust. "Americans can remember three wars we have fought in Asia," he said."We must make it our mission to avoid another."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:32 - ID#284255)
Scary forecast clouds Y2K summit
"It is dawning on the United States Senate and other branches of our government just how large a problem this could be,"

"We do it out of fear of the economic impact, the panic that could set in, the threat to life that could result,"

"My premise is that we're facing a major catastrophe, and there's not a lot of awareness out there,"

"You mention this to most audiences," he said, "and no light goes on."

"Some say the issue is much ado about nothing," Eder said. "Others envision the collapse of civilization as we know it."
The End of the World as We Know It?

If you count A as 6, B as 12, C as 18 and so on, then the word COMPUTER adds up to 666 - the Number of the Beast.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:34 - ID#43349)
here comes another wave!
PM's om the move again. Drama after midnight.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:34 - ID#201238)
time to connect
Haggis - it is time for us two gold geologists to connect by email. Some of your posts are most appreciated and others have me rolling on the floor. My email is

Dave in CO
(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:35 - ID#229103)
Thanks for the option data. Also, May of Y2K had 800 put contracts at $300 and 1000 put contracts at $310. Just hedging, I hope???

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:46 - ID#252150)
What the hell is going on?@$U.S. down against all currencies on globex
JY closed @ 73.10 up 1.65 yet POG down 2.40. The JY speculators are really getting wipsawed.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:47 - ID#153111)
Hey Skip: Spock is being logical, but has insufficient data
The people who make the money have two things in common: they have a commanding view of the big picture -AND- lots of patience.

To get the first, the commanding view, I recommend that you spend lots of your off time in the library. Go to Barron's in the archives, they must have it on micro film in a downtown branch. Go back to 1976 and chart both gold and the Dow Jones Industrials Average. This can be done on chart paper or better yet with a laptop computer and a spreadsheet.

Barron's comes out once a week, its gives the Friday closing price. Look at the graphs as you construct them and try to make investments as you go. Read the articles of 22 years ago to see what the best minds of the times say you should put your money into, get a picture of what was going on in the minds of real investors during this period. You will find that for the most part that you will lose on most of your play trades, as the best minds will always be wrong on the turns. There is no surer road to financial disaster than to seek professional advice with your own money.

I hope you do this as this is the only way some one can get 20+ experience on the cheap. When the crash in gold came in the early 80's no one called it! When the stock market took off in 1982, where were all the big guns putting their clients money into? Not the stock market! You have to obtain your own picture of the financial world, to be a successful investor you have to be able to go it alone, to be able to trust your own opinions, or you will fail.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:51 - ID#43460)
MJPL the D batteries were a joke

But efficiency in automobiles seriously is very low and IMHO can be greatly improved by electric motors using superconducting technology, too verbose to go into here. BTW, here is a good link showing junior high level electronic formulae calculations.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:54 - ID#153111)
A little hype on super conductors in no bad thing. Your right about one thing, they will change the world we live in. Many things now not possible will become everday occurances

(Fri Jul 03 1998 00:59 - ID#411259)
..... PM Review .....

Because of the holiday, we published the PM review a day early this week:

Not much there that hasn't been discussed hereabouts to some degree.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:00 - ID#153111)
Good night to all
I'm going to read a book

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:01 - ID#43460)
MJPL re hype
Sadly, you're right. In this market hype and raw courage are all I've got going to keep me from running away from the bears. All they've announced was a few inches of silver + base metal wire which conducts in liquid nitrogen. Building an MRI scanner is another story, eh.

Say what do you think of those 2 bicycle boys Wilbur and Orville up in Dayton building that powered kite? G'night ( 8-^ ) )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:03 - ID#374204)
Y2K - humans are such interesting animals
The Gregorian Calendar being such an arbitrarily Catholic inheritance
from the Dark Ages of Western Civ. for the measurement of time, it
would take the advent of the computer age for something so simple
to have such catastrophic potential.

What would Einstein have thought of all this? That the measuring
of a planet's daily and yearly revolutions and orbits might send
the planet's economy into chaos. That the rate of change in position between celestial bodies, the fourth dimension of time, could be
misinterpreted in such a fashion!
But then, he wasn't much of an economist. And probably held no position
in gold. What a moron.

Thank the ancient gods that humanity had no idea when it was Year
Zero, as it was imposed on us retroactively.

The ancient Inca's astronomically based calendar ends in 2014 ( I think ) .
What could this mean?

The recent wonder of the Hale-Bopp comet caused 39 people in
Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. to poison themselves instead of pulling
out some binoculars and simply enjoying the sight.

What else will surface as we proceed into the new millenium?

Q - What does all this mean, Tantalus_A? A - I don't really know.

Beware of false prophets? Buy some gold?

But surely some fine material for more haiku from Gollum,
which I thoroughly enjoy.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:08 - ID#27253)
more bad press for gold
I'm not a regular poster & know far less than the regular contributors here. Just some info to submit. I've been dealing in gold equities for some time, not so successfully this past 18 mos. Hopefully this bearish recommendation will be a sign that something positive is around the corner. I don't know how to paste a url so suggest you check for their latest bearish comments on gold under current reports

Paul Gold__A
(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:11 - ID#21484)
South Afican Golds
The sharp fall in the value of the South African Rand over the last 10 days has resulted in a pronounced jump in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Gold Index. See the chart at

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:18 - ID#284255)
MJPL - here are the charts less the m/a so far.
Indexed gold and Long Bond Yield with spread ratio - long term

Indexed gold and Long Bond Yield with spread ratio - short term

Gold price and Long Bond Yield with spread ratio - long term

Gold price and Long Bond Yield with spread ratio - short term

(Fri Jul 03 1998 01:55 - ID#374204)
A premature toast to my favorite holiday
Happy Independence Day to all us Yanks.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:24 - ID#284255)
Interesting Y2k sites or why to buy physical...
Contingency Planning

Three seperate views on Y2k:
Garth Saloner, Stephen S. Roach, Edward Yardeni

War Games

(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:34 - ID#257148)
The golden gift of flight ((am i gonna get 40F*d.. ????)))

Well, I think Wilber and Orville were a couple of real clever folk. I also think that a NZer called Pierce was the first man to gain self-assisted flight down there in the S Island, I think it was, and several weeks before those good Wright brothers. But, it's not a subject I know a lot about, though I daresay a Mainlander like PJR or another kiwi lurker could tell you the details. It's long been a source of contension over here in NZ, I doubt anyone at kitco but the kiwis have heard of Pierce.

sharefin, I wonder if your Dad know more..?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:37 - ID#257148)
should proof-read////////
self assisted? what was I thinking? I mean independent flight.

Pierce = First human to fly = kiwi

(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:42 - ID#401460)
Malaysia has decided to try to spend its way to recovery.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:44 - ID#401460)
hot mushrooms
KIEV, Ukraine ( AP ) - Health authorities have warned Ukrainians not to buy mushrooms and berries from street vendors in Kiev after discovering several samples of radioactive produce picked near the Chernobyl nuclear explosion.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 02:59 - ID#284255)
European Central Bank: Just in Time Collapse

(Fri Jul 03 1998 03:02 - ID#284255)
Aurator - Kiwi's can fly - how did I get to OZ???
Dad mentioned from Timaru but no references on Pierce...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 03:06 - ID#284255)
Aurator - another economist for your list
"So Ill Informed, He Might as Well Be an Economist"

(Fri Jul 03 1998 03:33 - ID#237264)
Floating Currencies

The premise is simple, but to play it requires insider info that only comes with super wealth.

The globalists who rule world trade also govern currency flows to finance the international trade undertheir control.

The game allowes ( d ) that for the existing weak currencies there are ( were ) generally a close number of strong currencies, this allowes ( d ) the knowledgeable elite to shift funds toward healthy areas so as to protect assets, it also allowes ( d ) the weak countries to obtain a trade advantage which the elite monitored for their advantage.

In essence they have pushed gold from of its traditional role by utilizing this currency game. They have also created much global suffering while they became even more powerful.

But today we have just one strong currency and that currency is backed by the biggest internal and external debt in a world that generally hates our guts.

And then there is gold.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 03:37 - ID#187109)
interesting stuff
JD - stuff on the Rand and it's new lows against the buck. You are good to have some Merkan duckets right now..........more stuff here regarding hedging at these here levels..........ohno?.....or.........hmmmmmmmmm I don't know. Does this mean gold is headed into the terlet again??



oh well...........ya' all have a good LONG weekend and Happy 4th to the too doggone Virginian gone bad ;- )

I'll be in ariZONA being watched by buzzards whilst playing a little stick with Kuston. Should be fun.............

AGULP to all of ya'!



(Fri Jul 03 1998 03:54 - ID#358318)
Is the dollar gold, or does it burn?
Central banks all over the world treat the dollar as if it were almost gold...

Oh, and here is an intriguing bit of news:

Blair reaffirms one-Empire policy

By Staff Reporter

London, England ( Reuters ) - In a move felt on both sides of the Atlantic,
Emporer Blair on Tuesday reaffirmed a U.K. commitment to one British
Empire ruled from London and opposition to independence for America.

Although other senior officials have previously underscored this
long-standing British policy, it was believed to be the first time Blair had
done so himself so explicitly.

His comments were immediately criticized by Washington but were
expected to be well-received by other members of the British
Commonwealth Empire.

Discussing his summit last Saturday with Russian President Yeltsin,
Blair said: "I had the chance to reiterate our USA policy which is
that we don't support independence for America, or 'two Britains' or
'one-America one-Britain."'

"And we don't believe that America should be a member in any
organization for which statehood is a requirement," he said, repeating
what is often called the "three no's" of Britain's policy.

Blair added: "Our only policy has been that we think it has to be done
peacefully. That is what our law says, and we have encouraged the
trans-Atlantic dialogue. And I think eventually it will bear fruit if everyone
is patient and works hard."

America immediately bridled at the statement, saying through a foreign
ministry spokesman: "Russia and Britain have no right and are in no
position to conduct bilateral negotiations on anything related to our

American secessionists against British Rule took the first steps on the
road to American Independence on 16th December 1773, when 30-60
men disguised as Indians boarded ships owned by the British East India
Company and smashed open the cargo of wooden tea chests and
threw them overboard, and that is why Americans drink coffee. All
because the Americans didn't want to pay Lord North's unified tea
taxes? Perhaps it would never have happened with better democratic
representation in the British Parliament- remember "No taxation without

Britain regards America as a rebel province and has threatened sell US
Treasuries and buy gold unless America rejoins the Empire. Britain
owns more US Treasuries than Japan.

The Atlantic between Britain and America is potentially one of the most
explosive areas in the world. It was the focus of tension in World War 2
when relations between Britain and America were strong and aid
convoys were repeatedly threatened by German U-boats.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 04:13 - ID#386245)
Happy July 4th to all the Merkans out there. Careful with those fireworks.

To any of you in Florida, our thoughts are with you. We went through the same maelstrom just a few short months ago.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 04:23 - ID#153111)
Sharefin: Thank you for the charts
Thank you for the charts, but that they are not what I wanted to show. I'm begining to see just how much I'm going to miss Quattro Pro for Dos when I have to use a Windows based program for charting.

The chart I wish I could give to the group plots the two series on top of each other with each series having its own values on one or the other Y-axis's. Plotted that way you see that gold leads US interest rates by weeks to months. Its amazing how accuratly gold leads US interest rates!

Thank you for your efforts any ways.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 04:45 - ID#340344)
In response to your query about "two and a half bathrooms," let me
say that it's just another of those quirky Merkan things. It means
two complete "bathrooms" each comprised of a toilet, a sink, and
a tub or shower, or a tub/shower combination. A "half-bath" or
"half bathroom" implies a toilet and a sink but no tub or shower.
We had quite a ROTFLOL-time when we listed our house for sale and the
real estate agent needed to give clear meaning to "three and two-half
baths." ( Three complete bathrooms and two, half-bathrooms. )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 04:57 - ID#257148)
Err... Giday, howzit gowan?

Speaking as one who does not know these things. Is it usual in America to greet each other "Happy 4th of July" before the 4th of July? Like saying Merry Christmas in the week/fortnight before 25/12? Anyway, if that is the case, permit me to say, Happy 4th July to the Americans on line, ain't nothing so sweet as the gaining of FREEDOM.

and a belated, Canada Day, to the canuks, Au Canada!


(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:03 - ID#257148)
Hey, don't give up so easy...there's many talented people here ....
Don't give up with those charts. Try to post your requests at ANOTHER time. The volumes at kitco are increasing ( sans cesse ) and not everyone reads back after a few days away. So, like the spider taught Robert the Bruse..."if at first you don't succeed, TRY, TRY, TRY AGAIN." ( It's what makes human beans the big tomale on our very precious dirtball )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:06 - ID#284255)
Sounds like you merkins spend too much time in the 'small room'.
Bad food or too much grog???

Or you just don't like the president?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:08 - ID#257148)
Where's HUANG 531???
Come out. Come out. Wherever you are, huango. Everyone's favourite poster..

I saw you, Mr Turin Experiment, appear to dance with Earl and Nick@EmperorofNOOZILUND in the last couple of day. Huang 531 are you about?

I have been 40F*d by 531

I am not a number, I am a FREE MAN.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:26 - ID#39857)
the non too circumspective one

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:33 - ID#257148)
It's been a year since the start of this correction in Asia.. what of other indicators?

Well, I remember some stories, while I was in Bangkok. And I mean that last word most sincerely. At the risk of being 40F*d, please, put your feet up, relax, take a few deep breaths, let the worries of the world just slide off your shoulders... and cross your legs.

Long before "Give him a Bobbit" caused a titter in a beauty parlour, the Thai women out-did themselves in their imaginative ways of emasculating their errant men.

Hey fellas, Listen UP!!

I read of one razor-wielding irate wife or, perhaps even more worrying, girlfriend who lobbed the errant member out a window where it was eaten by a passing duck.

I read of another scimitar-sharpening harridan who attached ANOTHER member to four hydrogen baloons and yelled curses upon it as it soared skywards. ( watch out for it skylark )

And of another big-breasted bombshell that attached explosive to an offending lingum and literally blew it up.

Just wondering whether the Thai recession/depression is producing more or less bizarre vignettes in the Battle of the Sexes..It is ANOTHER indicator I have been working on.

The emasculator Index, one component of the Criminal Index.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:35 - ID#284255)
Aurator - not to worry
I have the data - just a user/operator disfunction/malfunction.
I'm sure I'll be able to get them right.

Hopefully - well maybe....

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:43 - ID#257148)
The mind of the Mnemonist..
Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 20:50 Aragorn III ( Spock and Rack... ) you said

"I gave a long post perhaps two weeks ago addressing this very issue. It would be a fine reference, but there is no way I could find it."

Well, I could if you could tell me an unusual word, or a series of words in the post., or be more specific with the day.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:49 - ID#210235)
@Plunging rand raises fears of deep recession
but saves many mining jobs, according to today's London Times. To support the currency, interest rates have been hiked to 23%, a real rate of 18% over inflation. Property prices are declining, people are walking away from mortgages. It's a "miracle" to mines, however, where expenses are paid in rands but sales are in dollars.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:51 - ID#257148)
Here's to golden days!
beg your pudding. Thought it was a done deal. Hang in there.



"See golden days, fruitful of golden deeds, With joy and love triumphing."

Line 337

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:52 - ID#210235)
@Hi, guys
D#$m dog woke me up. Thought I'd check the news.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 05:57 - ID#257148)
The Rule of 72
23% Interest? And noone bats an eye? Ohhhh....It was like that in Wellington during the summer of 1987. The NZSE was climbing each day, as it had been for 2 years. Easy credit. Many bought shares on credit cards. But 23%? That's suicidal..

Is this usury existing in the S Africa you know?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:01 - ID#210235)
Here'a good link site for the Asian crisis.

Pop quiz in the morning. ( the real morning ) .

See ya.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:04 - ID#210235)
Just in case you decided not to read the London Times - think you have to register for that one - there was a postscript of sorts that over 700 people have died in police custody this year. Guess Crusty's in a peaceful neighborhood. Nytol ( here's to Ted - hope he's back soon! )

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:06 - ID#24135)
The F-awful Curse
The F-awful curse ..
It was supposed to make me poor .. But it will make
me rich .. When the dreaded warlock f-awful cursed the
rand .. it plummeted .. The warlock intended to put me
on the corner selling pencils .. but he miscalulated .
Look at these mines ..
Durban deep cost last quarter 307$/oz .. now 230
Harmony ...................280 210
Randfontein ..................285 now 215

so Eps calculated by ( POG -cost ) *output/number of shares

= DD ( 295-230 ) *510/40 = $0.82
= Harm ( 295 -210 ) *780/49 = $1.35
= Randfont ( 295 - 215 ) *669/65 = $0.81

using a p/e of 10 we get the following forward
prices for DD .. $8.82
Harm .. $13.5
Randfont .. $8.1

Bless you F-awful .. I celebrate the collapsing
rand .. May it fall to my target of
6.7 and to Jupiter and beyond.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:24 - ID#24135)
Avoid Police Custody ...
To all ..
Yes I heard the big number of deaths in police custody
last night on the radio .. a guy pointed out that it
was much higher than the highest level ever reached
under apartheid. He said he thought there was a
RACIAL component because ... ALL the deaths were
black males .. not 99 % but ALL. However he also pointed
out that the police force was over half BLACK .. so he
couldnt draw conclusions... other than Black police
seemed to be anti Black ???? what kind of racism is
that ?
The major opposition to the ANC is the UDM .. they
want to bring back the death penalty .. however if
so many guys die in police custody .. who needs a
death penalty anyway..

For Salty ..
23 % interest rate isnt bad as long as you dont have
to borrow any money..

(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:36 - ID#411331)
@ all: one month LEASE RATES rose from 1.21 to 1.31% yesterday
while 1 year lease rates fell from 2.09 to 2.06%
One month forward rates have slipped from
4.45 to 4.35%

The one month lease rate rise may indicate
increased speculative short activity in the
near term. The one year lease rate decline
is a move in the direction of gold carry trade

IMHO, the 1 year lease rates must rise to 3%
and the forward rate decline to under 2.5%
in order to initiate a gold bull.

In a metal market dominated by cheap leased
metal, the price becomes disconnected from
supply and demand fundamentals, and the
cheap lease rates generate an artificial
oversupply that continues until all
stockpiles of the commodity are gone.
Under present conditions, CB stocks
will last over 6 years and silver stocks
will be gone in 3 years, unless the CBs
stop leasing metals at firesale prices.

Of course, when the CB stocks are all leased
away, gold will be $30 000 per oz and silver,
well, take a guess.

( Actually, I don't think we shall need to
wait this long. The CBs should stop the
gold carry, when the EURO is introduced and
they announce the real gold backing for the
new currency, or the US will drop the prime
to make the forward rates marginal for the
gold carry as they try to reinflate the world
economy )

Until then, we suffer on. IMHO

Mr. Mick
(Fri Jul 03 1998 06:59 - ID#345321)
Good news for Gold???................
Friday July 3, 6:24 am Eastern Time

Gold higher in Europe, seen trading in range

LONDON, July 3 ( Reuters ) - Gold moved higher in early European business on Friday, but dealers
said they expected range-bound trading with the U.S. market closed for the Independence Day

Gold was last quoted at $294.50/$295.00 an ounce, up from Thursday's New York close at
$293.60/$294.40. Bullion fixed lower in the morning at $293.90, down from the previous $294.05.

Dealers said gold was sold off first in the morning and was likely to remain in a range between
$293.50 and $295.00.

"There is really very little going on," one dealer said.

The market was still watching currency moves, especially the Japanese yen and the South African
rand, which took another beating on Friday.

The rand hit a record low of 6.4025 bid against the dollar on Friday morning -- a 31.74 percent
slump since the beginning of the year.

The dealer said the market remained concerned over the choice of a successor for Reserve
( Central ) Bank governor Chris Stals, whose term ends on August 7, 1999.

Dealers said the outlook for the yen remained bleak.

``Gold fell to touch lows just below $294.00 in New York time as the impact of the Japanese
banking announcements had a detrimental effect on the yen.

``It has recovered somewhat overnight, helped by ( Japan Prime Minister Ryutaro ) Hashimoto
pointing to permanent tax cuts, but the outlook is fairly bleak for the yen,'' another dealer said.

Silver was last quoted at $5.35/$5.37 from the previous close in New York at $5.33/$5.36, and
dealers said they expected the metal to remain at current levels.

``To be honest, all the metals look poor at the moment, and the currencies will be weighing heavily
upon them. Today will no doubt be a quiet one as there is no New York session,'' one dealer said.

Platinum was last quoted at $364.50/$366.50, down 50 cents from the New York close.

Palladium remained quiet and was quoted at $290.00/$300.00, up from the previous close at

(Fri Jul 03 1998 07:05 - ID#284255)
Is you computer Y2k compliant???
5 star rating program for evaluating Y2k compliancy.
Will you be able to view Kitco come 2000?
When gold is soaring in the stratosphere?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 07:22 - ID#242325)
lease rates
Rhody: Your lease and forward rarte analysis is right on the money. I would just add that 1993 shows that a gold bull is possible with low lease rates, but the odds against it are very great.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 07:30 - ID#284255)
"The Global Food Chain" - that's you and me.............

Without the rest of the "food chain" to support them, these Goliath's of industry, and finance will collapse. The "Domino Theory" of the Vietnam war will be reborn, in a new guise.  They will become the debris at the bottom of the new food chain. The debris that the "bottom feeders" consume as food. ( The jokes about lawyers, and bottom feeding fish, immediately come to mind. ) But today these risks seem too far removed to be realistic.

This critical global "food chain" makes interesting research material. For the past three and a half years I have been exploring it, from top to bottom, and three-dimensionally around the world. It is not research into computers, not Cobol, Fortran, Assembler or any other of the 2500 languages on record. It is about people, and how they run industry, government, and commerce.

People make up the "food chain".

(Fri Jul 03 1998 07:55 - ID#36965)
Gold (what else)
While I think we are on the cusp of a gold runup this whole pattern continues to irritate and annoy, running off the financially queezy and those aurically faint of heart. I am in the World Gold Fund, a fund which has really made me sick of heart. They mailed out an interesting article by an expert yesterday which made me take some heart in the near-term gold future. I continue to plow all I can into gold bullion and gold stocks. Our time is near and there is not doubt that gold is getting out of its sick bed, is going to brush its teeth and go to work.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Jul 03 1998 07:59 - ID#347267)
Can someone explain this
riddle from ANOTHER June 29: "But history has shown that as the sun sets in the east, so must also conclude games of men, these "games of chance"."

I allus thot that "East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet"????? Is the sun setting on GOLD or rising?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:08 - ID#350194)
Hi Tort - How long is this Cusp of which you speak? :- ) Your last post was sufficiently discomboobulated to make me worry for you. Step back, take a breather and RELAX! Grizz - You got at least half your wish of last evening. Pierre is probably selling used towels on a street corner in Montreal. ;- )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:18 - ID#284255)
Life as a goldbug...
"It is unbearable to imagine what we will go through."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:29 - ID#358318)
Shall we play dice with the markets?
Much of present day 'investing' is predicated on chance- the chance that
a currency will be at a certain level at the expiry of a futures contract
say. The chance that a stock price will turn down and benefit someone
who has taken a short position. These types of investors are gambling
on an outcome. Many new-technology stocks experience a runup
in price because 'investors' are gambling on a future product or
future sales outperforming the market. These stocks can be very
volatile- look at AMZN for example. After the house of cards
comes tumbling down, investors will be forced to consider longer
term plans, and steady returns on genuine investments based on
a sober assessment of a company's soundness after consideration
of its past performance, business plans, and other details.
The chance of a currency going up or down in such a way that
'investors' can benefit from shorting it to the floor would be
much reduced if that currency were backed by gold, or indeed
if the currency were of intrinsic value such as the Gold Dinar.
There is nothing a gambling investor dislikes more than a stable price
( or one that shows a slow, steady, non-exuberant gain )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:44 - ID#39828)
World Bank sorte on resource rich PNG politics fails when it is revealed in parliament
Friday 3 July, 1998 ( 5:23pm AEST )

The World Bank and Papua New Guinea are in dispute over PNG's
hiring of the Bank's former PNG team leader as Prime Minister Bill
Skate's chief economic advisor.

Sean Dorney reports, the opposition has questioned Mr Skate in
parliament over whether the World Bank is now refusing to deal with
PNG on further economic recovery loans.

Prime Minister Skate hired the former World Bank economist, Pirouz
Hamidian-Rad, last month, saying he would work directly to Mr Skate
and the Cabinet, not to PNG's Treasurer. In parliament today the
opposition demanded to know if it was true that the World Bank had
objected to Mr Hamidian-Rad's employment and was refusing to
continue negotiations. Mr Skate: "Yes, I am aware. I cannot deny that.
I have in fact asked the Treasurer to sit with my Chief Secretary and
address the issue. Even though it may not be in line with the World
Bank agreement, the fact of the matter is that PNG needs to have
people who know the system.'

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:56 - ID#45173)
Life as a goldbug II
Estragon: I can't go on like this.
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot

(Fri Jul 03 1998 08:58 - ID#29048)
Barron's is out a day early....Dow to 21,500 by 2008 anyone?
July 6, 1998

Seer Speaks

Futurist says Dow could hit 35,000, and he's been right before
By Neil A. Martin

( excerpts from longer article )

If you're worried that the bull market is about to peter out, you might want to talk to Harry S. Dent. Ten years ago, Dent was predicting that the Dow would go to 10,000 by the year 2000, and now he is predicting that it will double to 21,500 and maybe even quadruple to 35,000 over the next decade due in large part to a booming world economy.

The world, according to Dent, is on the verge of the greatest economic and stock boom in history. "The sudden emergence of information technologies along with the peak spending years of the massive Baby
Boom generation, the largest in history, will usher in a new era of prosperity and sweeping changes," Dent says. The confluence of these two will ignite a period that Dent characterizes as "the most exciting boom
period since the Roaring Twenties."

The engine that is driving this great boom is an aging Baby Boom generation, 40 million strong, which will move into its peak spending years between 2008 and 2010. Boomers will turn in their sports cars for more luxurious vehicles. They will buy different products than they did in the 1990s: Toys, baby-sitters and aerobic classes are out; trade-up homes, health care and investing are in.

As Dent sees it, a spending spree by American Baby Boomers will propel stock prices strongly upward, with the Dow hitting at least 21,500 by the year 2008, and possibly much higher. "We are projecting a peak as high
as 35,000," Dent says, admitting that "it may sound outrageous, yet it is the same 16% average annual gain the stock market has had since this bull run started in 1982, and that's not counting dividends, which would add 18%, and that means you would quadruple your money every 10 years."

The current bull market is just a prelude to an even bigger bull market, one that will be fueled by rising personal earnings, technology-generated productivity gains and, mostly, "Baby Boomers who are going to flood the markets with investment dollars," Dent says.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:00 - ID#29048)
Dent's hedge....
What would a sudden correction or, perish the thought, prolonged breakdown in investment do to Dent's timetable for prosperity?

"If the market were suddenly to drop below 7,000, that would break the upbeat trend and indicate that something was breaking down in the world on a global basis that we don't understand," he says, adding quickly, "But we don't believe that will happen."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:03 - ID#45173)
Imagine you're the captain of the Titanic, and you're 20 feet away
from that iceberg. Suddenly your insurance agent comes bounding up the bridge to add *just one thing* to your policy: a provision exclusing coverage if you hit an iceberg.

Emily Canelo, senior vice president for Zurich Re ( North America ) Inc. in New York, a reinsurance company... objects to the Titanic analogy: "Would an insurer insure a burning building?"

-Boston Globe, 7/3/98

At least some insurance companies believe, with respect to the risks posed by Y2K, that we're living in a burning building.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:08 - ID#286230)
If Dent is right
I may never get to buy any gold again: (

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:08 - ID#284255)
Amongst the many - there are the good.......>
Some interesting perspectives..

As well as...
Plus more on y2k

More in these articles than meets the eye......

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:23 - ID#29048)
July 6, 1998

Capitalist Acts Between Consenting Adults Might Be the Only Socialism

That Works

By Gene Epstein

Former Sen. Eugene McCarthy once quipped that if the Declaration of Independence were drafted today, its last line would have to be changed. Instead of the politically incorrect reference to "our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honour," the proper wording would have to be, "our lives, our sacred honor -- and anything up to a thousand dollars."

The Founding Fathers clearly believed in the right to be rich, as well as in the ancillary right to use one's riches as one sees fit. Both ideas used to make me uncomfortable until I read Harvard philosopher Robert Nozick. In his 1974 magnum opus, Anarchy, State and Utopia, Nozick demonstrates that belief in an equal distribution of income is a classic Boomerang Principle: Try throwing it toward its proper destination and it comes right back, propelled by its inner contradictions.

To prove his case, Nozick asks us to imagine a socialist economy that doles out the same number of dollars to everyone, from bartenders to baggage handlers to basketball players. But then, says our philosopher, what if Wilt Chamberlain ( the Michael Jordan of his day ) decides to demonstrate his basketball prowess on an after-hours basis before adoring fans who are willing to pay him 25 cents apiece for the right to watch. And what if, over the course of a year, four million spectators end up attending these events, pouring a million extra dollars into Chamberlain's pocket.

Mischief and Moonlight

Clearly, says Nozick, if these fans had a right to their equal share of income in the first place, then they must have had a right to spend it the way they wanted to. And if through the exercise of this right they create unequal shares of income ( Wilt will no doubt upset the apple-cart further once he spends some of his million ) , then how can anybody protest without first objecting to the state of equality that led to it?

Nozick imagines even further mischief, like people using their equal incomes to invest in moonlighting businesses. The businesses offer products that people want to buy -- and pretty soon a new class of entrepreneurs is playing hooky from their day jobs, agreeing to forgo wages in return for the right to devote themselves more fully to their night and weekend endeavors. Result: The initial pattern of equality

completely unravels.

Of course, in order to prevent such a disaster from occurring, the state could intervene, declaring that no one has a right to spend his income in such a way as to make anyone better off. But as Nozick puts it, that would mean forbidding "capitalist acts between consenting adults." And doing so requires the kind of constant interference in people's lives that we Bill of Rights types would abhor.

But I know what you're thinking. There is still nothing inspiring about a world in which talented people like to squeeze every last buck out of others, even though the others are freely handing those bucks over. Today's anti-Marxist maxim of From Each According to His Ability to Each According to His Greed isn't my cup of tea either. No, I'm an ardent believer in capitalism, mainly because it fully accommodates its polar opposite, socialism, and because it does so by permitting consenting adults to perform capitalist acts the way they see fit.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:33 - ID#45173)
Gollum: re "here comes another wave!"
What happened to PMs after midnight? Something's shaking...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:38 - ID#284255)
Reality today???
"If I taught a class, on my final exam I would take an Internet company and ask [my students], 'How much is this company worth?' Anyone who would answer, I would flunk."
Warren Buffett, quoted in the Industry Standard Media Grok, May 5, 1998.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:40 - ID#412286)
I like to know what baby boomer is not maxing into the mkt. Anyone not doing it now never will. Further we have had max overseas investment into the mkt. Seems to me all the fuel that can flow is flowing. Without the foreign money and dollar strength the BBs couldnt support it alone. BBs are now 35-52, this is pretty near the peak earning years in what is supposed to be the best economy ever, how does it get better. I dont see where the fuel can come from to drive us significantly higher. But I guess articles like Dents are what you would expect to see near the top.
I didnnt read Dent's article but how does overcome or does he even address these points?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 09:55 - ID#29048)
ROR More from DENT
"The fundamental generators of change in any economy at any time in human history have been the new generations," Dent says. "From the time of the ancient Greeks, up through the Roman Empire, the Renaissance, the Industrial Revolution and into the current century, new generations have brought with them different values, tastes and spending habits, which in turn generate new cycles of boom-and-bust."

Generally, these waves of development have stretched over 80-year periods, from start to boom to bust. "The last time we saw such a boom period was during the Roaring Twenties, when the Henry Ford generation of consumers, augmented by a massive immigration wave, reached their peak years of earnings, productivity and spending," Dent says. "At the same time, new technologies, industries, products and services suddenly burst forth and, seemingly overnight, automobiles, electricity, telephones and new products such as Coca-Cola, became affordable consumer items. This confluence caused high economic growth, unprecedented 5% average gains in business productivity, a zero rate of inflation, along with rising savings rates and falling debt ratios," he explains.

Dent argues that what happened in the Roaring Twenties will be repeated, though on a much broader scale, in what he calls the Roaring 2000s. A dramatic expansion of the economy will be triggered by the Information Revolution, which will move fully into the mainstream, chaperoned by the rapid adoption of personal computers, computer appliances of all kinds, and, of course, the Internet.

"Internet usage by consumer households by 2002 will fundamentally change how and where we live and work," he says. "It will create a new economic surge that features a huge array of customized goods and services at increasingly affordable prices, and usher in nothing less than the greatest boom in history and an unprecedented opportunity for investors and entrepreneurs, great buys in real estate, and a wealth of high-quality lifestyle choices for people who anticipate these changes. We will see such rapid and exciting changes as we have not seen since the dizzying pace of the productivity revolution unleashed by the assembly line in the early 20th century."

As Dent sees it, a spending spree by American Baby Boomers will propel stock prices strongly upward, with the Dow hitting at least 21,500 by the year 2008, and possibly much higher. "We are projecting a peak as high as 35,000," Dent says, admitting that "it may sound outrageous, yet it is the same 16% average annual gain the stock market has had since this bull run started in 1982, and that's not counting dividends, which would add 18%, and that means you would quadruple your money every 10 years."

The current bull market is just a prelude to an even bigger bull market, one that will be fueled by rising personal earnings, technology-generated productivity gains and, mostly, "Baby Boomers who are going to flood the markets with investment dollars," Dent says.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:00 - ID#412286)
Thats a great article but it takes things to an extreme to discredit all socialism. Capitalism and democracy are essential, the social aspects of the society maintain stability. Social Security and medicare ( which are both earned ) along with unemployment insurance are social programs supported by most. They are a far cry from the socialism you describe. Further it is the lack of a social infrastructure which has resulted in many countries overtaking the US in terms of standard of living. Europe now sets the benchmark for living stds. This is probably one of the big reasons the Euro is hitting the scene. Europeans would not put up with a situation as it exists in the US ie "a non umion service economy". Remember there was full employment in the Confederate states of America.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:00 - ID#29048)
U.S. employment figures..
Future investors must come from somewhere....

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Asia-vulnerable sector, manufacturing, shed 29,000 jobs in June, but about 9,000 of them were strike-related. Setting aside that 9,000, the cumulative loss in manufacturing jobs from the March '98 peak came to 44,000. That's nothing to cheer about, but against total employment in this sector of nearly 18.8 million, it represents an erosion of only 0.2%. On the other hand,
it may well be that the worst is yet to come. Overall, nonfarm payrolls rose a solid 205,000, but with government employment falling by 33,000, the private sector contribution came to 238,000. That's about in line with the average monthly increase of 242,000 over the prior year.

The unemployment rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.5%. But according to Wrightson Associates' chief economist, Lou Crandall, the rise may be due to a statistical quirk rather than to an actual change in joblessness.

The number of people working stood at 131.2 million, or 64% of the 205 million aged 16 years or over.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:02 - ID#432298)
Kitco gold prices....
Anybody know what happened to the Kitco's price updates? What is the web address of the alternate site that I can go to for them? Thanks.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:12 - ID#45173)
We've been waiting for Mr. Dent!
The arrival of a "blue skies" prophet portends the end of this bull market. He is here to reassure the true believers in unlimited equity market expansion whose faith is beginning to waver in the face of negative indicators, especially a long term trend of falling corporate earnings. He is correct about a replay of the roaring 20s but his time line is off. We're already in the replay of the roaring 20s and have been since the great debt expansion began in the early 1980s. Does he talk about what will happen when the boom ends?

the moon
(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:14 - ID#374242)
to Gazebo
alternate kitco'site is

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:15 - ID#285121)
Gazebo: Here it is

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:21 - ID#240331)
EJ / Blue skies prophet
Great post... let us be patient, we'll need it ; ) )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:35 - ID#253246)
Dent ******************silver

If Dent is right it will only put a bigger dent in the above ground silver

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:43 - ID#285121)
Dent's predictions
Dent's previous prediction of a Dow 10,000 by the year 2000 has not come to pass and won't. If the Dow ever reaches 21,000 or 35,000 it will be because it will take a wheel barrow load of $100.00 dollar bills to buy a loaf of bread.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:48 - ID#285121)
Finally I'm fully invested
in Dec 2000 put options. There's no way this bloated market will survive Y2K.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:49 - ID#29048)
I agree with your desire for higher standards of living for all. Those higher standards should be achieved by voluntary contributions, not government sponsored confiscation. If people lack the good will to contribute to the well-being of the less fortunate, then should they be robbed? You cannot seize the moral high ground at gun point. There are too many people who lack the foresight and ambition to plan for their own retirement. Some are too lazy to even work at all. They expect the rest of us to provide for them now, and later. Government exists for them as a giant hog with a couple of million teats. Wean this bunch of piggies and then join those of us who are voluntarily helping the genuinely needy.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 10:50 - ID#20748)
Abe Rosenthal on Clinton in China

he President stood to speak to about 100 dissidents gathered in the U.S. Embassy. He said this to them:

"While we press for human rights through diplomatic channels you press with your very lives, day in, day out, year after year, risking your jobs, your homes,
your all."

And then this: "Coming here, being with you, looking into your faces, I have to believe the history of this troubled century will indeed be redeemed in the eyes of God and

President Reagan said many things during his visit to Moscow that May of 1988, but those passages will be remembered by fighters for freedom willing to risk their own
-- and by those privileged by their own liberty to help them.

A decade later, President Clinton, in Beijing, could make no such statements. This President, born and raised under liberty, elected in liberty, had no meetings with
dissidents, spoke no words about political prisoners by the thousands existing on gruel and beatings, and workers by the million slaving in "re-education" prison-factories.

This President, who proclaims love for children and women's rights, did not mention what confronts every Chinese woman -- the need for official approval to deliver a
child. He did not mention the punishment for carrying to birth more than the allotted one, or sometimes two: forced abortion. It may take a village to raise a child, as Mrs.
Clinton wrote, but in the China they admire it takes only one official to order the child extinguished in the womb; no choice.

Beijing gave Clinton air time before censoring replays.

When he called his friends in the U.S. to ask howmIdoin' back there, they said he was a smash. He was; the U.S. press has been spun so often that now it sometimes just
spins itself. The Clinton "openness" we heard and read about was to candor as Torquemada to tolerance.

He arrived bearing payoff to China. He offered the chance to make Tibet disappear forever into China, without any Beijing concessions. President Jiang Zemin of China
said he would talk with the Dalai Lama, maybe. The Dalai Lama praised both men. He fears that if the Chinese never allow him to return to Tibet, when he dies Beijing
will choose and rear the next Dalai Lama or simply eliminate Tibetan Buddhism completely.

In Tibet, dreams of national and religious freedom will not long survive any Clinton-Jiang deal, nor will Tibet's international support groups. But perhaps at least the
honored memory of the half-century struggle by Tibetans and the Dalai Lama against genocide will endure despite decisions that China and the U.S. force upon them.

In the "debate" heard by Chinese, it was President Jiang who openly laid down realities to them and the world. The Communist justification for the Tiananmen slaughter
stands; objecting Chinese can go to jail. On foreign complaints about human rights: None of your business. And nothing, particularly not the presence of this U.S.
President, can save a Chinese dissident from arrest when the police choose.

Clinton -- he concentrated on concealment. When he had the chance to use public time to speak up against the arrests of Roman Catholic and Protestant clergymen and
congregants who do not accept the official "patriotic" churches or Beijing's dictates about liturgy, sermons, clerical appointments and disavowal by Catholics of papal
authority and appointments, the President was mute.

Nor did he speak of the millions who attend underground "house churches" rather than accept Beijing's rule over God.

And in all those public meetings Clinton kept his mouth shut about Chinese sales of nuclear weaponry, and Beijing's thefts of American missile technology.

On the Chinese economy, he said nothing about the various special efficiencies that so smartly increase production, profits and exports: 17-cent-an-hour labor, no unions,
iron factory discipline, forced labor, the waiting cell -- all now handsomely financed by Western investment, and imports.

A smash. The Beijing-U.S. axis was forged, based on Politburo concepts about the role of human rights and political democracy: zero.

And then -- then, Clinton announced that China's economic and "freedom" course was "morally right." He said that. The President will go home. On Sundays he will go
to church. The Bible will be in his hand, and on his soul will be that judgment.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:04 - ID#20748)
Clinton in China. Reformatted for an easier read.

The President stood to speak to about 100 dissidents gathered in the U.S. Embassy. He said this to them: "While we press for human rights through diplomatic channels you press with your very lives, day in, day out, year after year, risking your jobs, your homes, your all." And then this: "Coming here, being with you, looking into your faces, I have to believe the history of this troubled century will indeed be redeemed in the eyes of God and man."

President Reagan said many things during his visit to Moscow that May of 1988, but those passages will be remembered by fighters for freedom willing to risk their own-- and by those privileged by their own liberty to help them.

A decade later, President Clinton, in Beijing, could make no such statements. This President, born and raised under liberty, elected in liberty, had no meetings with dissidents, spoke no words about political prisoners by the thousands existing on gruel and beatings, and workers by the million slaving in "re-education" prison-factories.

This President, who proclaims love for children and women's rights, did not mention what confronts every Chinese woman -- the need for official approval to deliver a child. He did not mention the punishment for carrying to birth more than the allotted one, or sometimes two: forced abortion. It may take a village to raise a child, as Mrs. Clinton wrote, but in the China they admire it takes only one official to order the child extinguished in the womb; no choice.

Beijing gave Clinton air time before censoring replays. When he called his friends in the U.S. to ask howmIdoin' back there, they said he was a smash. He was; the U.S. press has been spun so often that now it sometimes just spins itself. The Clinton "openness" we heard and read about was to candor as Torquemada to tolerance.

He arrived bearing payoff to China. He offered the chance to make Tibet disappear forever into China, without any Beijing concessions. President Jiang Zemin of China said he would talk with the Dalai Lama, maybe. The Dalai Lama praised both men. He fears that if the Chinese never allow him to return to Tibet, when he dies Beijing will choose and rear the next Dalai Lama or simply eliminate Tibetan Buddhism completely.

In Tibet, dreams of national and religious freedom will not long survive any Clinton-Jiang deal, nor will Tibet's international support groups. But perhaps at least the honored memory of the half-century struggle by Tibetans and the Dalai Lama against genocide will endure despite decisions that China and the U.S. force upon them.

In the "debate" heard by Chinese, it was President Jiang who openly laid down realities to them and the world. The Communist justification for the Tiananmen slaughter stands; objecting Chinese can go to jail. On foreign complaints about human rights: None of your business. And nothing, particularly not the presence of this U.S. President, can save a Chinese dissident from arrest when the police choose.

Clinton -- he concentrated on concealment. When he had the chance to use public time to speak up against the arrests of Roman Catholic and Protestant clergymen and congregants who do not accept the official "patriotic" churches or Beijing's dictates about liturgy, sermons, clerical appointments and disavowal by Catholics of papal authority and appointments, the President was mute. Nor did he speak of the millions who attend underground "house churches" rather than accept Beijing's rule over God.

And in all those public meetings Clinton kept his mouth shut about Chinese sales of nuclear weaponry, and Beijing's thefts of American missile technology.

On the Chinese economy, he said nothing about the various special efficiencies that so smartly increase production, profits and exports: 17-cent-an-hour labor, no unions, iron factory discipline, forced labor, the waiting cell -- all now handsomely financed by Western investment, and imports.

A smash. The Beijing-U.S. axis was forged, based on Politburo concepts about the role of human rights and political democracy: zero.

And then -- then, Clinton announced that China's economic and "freedom" course was "morally right." He said that. The President will go home. On Sundays he will go to church. The Bible will be in his hand, and on his soul will be that judgment.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:05 - ID#45173)
Equity profits as "funny money"
An friend I had lunch with last week described the profits she has made and holds in the stock market as "funny money." The "money" she holds in equities is meaningless until she sells her stocks and converts the stocks into hard currency. She's correct, but I doubt many folks in the stock market are aware of this simple fact. They look at their monthly Fidelity mutual fund account statement and read it like a bank statement: if the total is now $150,000 when it was $100,000 a year ago, they believe they are $50,000 richer. They will only realize the difference between their Mutual Fund statement and their bank statement when they see the Mutual Fund statement go to $120,000, then $100,000, then $80,000, depending on when they cave in and give up their "in it for the long term" stand.

Every time you expect the stock market to drop to reflect a reasonable average PE ratio, another group shows up to put their money in. In the last two years Baby Boomer retirement funds and Asia flight capital have raised the average price of a stock at a time when the rate of increase of corporate earnings growth has either flattened or reversed. More and more people are paying more and more money for stocks that are worth less and less. Is this not the essence of inflation? What happens to the bond markets when inflated "funny money" seeks a safe home in treasuries when the equity markets deflate?


(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:09 - ID#43460)
John Disney re your 06:24 re the SA police atrocities.
Only on the naive surface would it be logical for the revolutionary government in South Africa to spare blacks. In actuality there would appear to be both general and specific reasons for them to act in the opposite. IMHO

First, generally, a revolutionary government maintains its power against both conservatives' and liberals' objection they would have 2 stages of violence. The first would be against thair avowed enemies and the second would be against those closer to them to eliminate threats to their absolute power. A case in point would be the progression of the 18th century French from killing the Royalists to the point when the Jacobins and Girondists fell to killing one another. IMHO

A more specific reason for SA would be that by no stretch of the imagination are the 'black' South Africans one single unified group. Anthropologically speaking there are at least 3 entirely separate Negro races there who evolved separately before europeans and asians even branched off the family tree. ( If one looks at kinship trees one finds that the Hottentot peoples, the Bushmen and the Zulus and others who emigrated from the north are three distinct racial/ethnic/cultural groups going back tens of thousands of years. ) Where racial or ethnic prejudice exists it is more likely than not to occur within the context of preexisting conflict. So the arid SA climate with only 10% arable land would naturally set up a thousand year old competition for resources. In the case of South Africa it merely appears that the opposing groups superficially look alike to the foreign news reporters and socialist 'do gooders' who are trying to make a living off SA problems. IMHO

Of course, I'll give you the fact that my opinions are merely based on a general knowledge of human politics and behavior so are merely hypotheses as opposed to the basic day to day knowledge you have of your own country. You actually see the contradictions and lies on a day to day basis, but perhaps this will help to show reason why they happen. Standard disclaimer applies. I'm not an expert in this field. IMHO

Here are a few selected references pertaining to the subject more or less for the rest of you guys. I think that understanding of SA ethnology is vital basic background information needed to understand the future swings of the POG. IMHO

Old link re Zulu separist movement:

Newer description of the Zulu people:

Kindergarten level intro to SA history:

Listing of language groups, demonstrating the true polyglot nature of SA:

Two links of interest from one of the US thinktanks:

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:11 - ID#335190)
World won't tolerate another Bosnia, says NATO chief

PRISTINA, Yugoslavia ( CP ) -- The world will not allow a repeat of the Bosnian war in Kosovo, NATO's chief declared Thursday, even as Kosovo's top ethnic Albanian leader repeated his pleas for intervention.

Next week a NATO fleet will visit the Albanian port of Durres "to show the solidarity of NATO allies to your country" while a joint exercise will be held in Albania in August.

Clinton says no options ruled out on Kosovo

HONG KONG, July 3 ( Reuters ) - U.S. President Bill Clinton on Friday reiterated that NATO had not ruled out any options in dealing with the increasingly bloody conflict in Kosovo.

Ethnic Albanians make up 90 percent of Kosovo's 1.8 million people.

Western powers fear the violence could erupt into all-out war and spill across the southern Balkans.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:11 - ID#29048)
All I ask Lord, is for a $30 move to shut these guys up.
From a Barron's article on Real Estate investments..see the last line.

Individuals who bought into realty funds in recent months have been bitterly disappointed. These funds have had a horrid quarter, losing 5.15%, on average -- a showing that left them in the bottom quarter of 35 fund sectors tracked by Lipper Analytical Services. Indeed, their performance was the second-worst among funds that don't invest primarily in foreign stocks. ( Gold funds won the bozo award, with a loss of 10.46%. )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:15 - ID#412286)
Social Security and Medicare are paid for we are owed.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:16 - ID#293379)

Man, get a look at that: the price of silver has dropped
to $ 0.000 as of 11:20... I knew this would happen if I bought more...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:20 - ID#254112)
Y2K: Embedded Chips
I have often expressed here that I consider the embedded chips problem to be the most serious problem which might cause electrical power plants to fail. Here are my theoretical considerations to this problem.

A chip in a security system runs usually "burnt in" code, it is usually "hard coded". Let's assume it receives the measure result of temperature every five minutes. It also receives some status information. The code being executed in the chip runs through a decision logic and comes to certain results by using the inputted parameters. The result can be alarming or indicate that everything is o.k. Accordingly, the chip generates some output activities. The chip might trigger some switches, depending on the result.

What usually happens is that everything is o.k. Right? What usually also happens is that this simple information that everything is o.k. is forwarded to some kind of control center, or control computer. How is it forwarded?

Can you imagine this o.k. information is forwarded without the date/time stamp from the chip clock?

I don't think so. I think all messages forwarded to the control center carry the date/time stamp because it is absolutely necessary to know in the control center when the chip came to a cedrtain result based on what parameters. If the forwarded message would be without date/time stamp the message would be nearly worthless in all such cases. Such a security system for instance would never pass an acceptance test, if it wouldn't show when certain critical or uncritical events happened.

Therefore my conclusion is that almost all these embedded chips are in one way or the other date/time sensitive. Now: if a message cannot be correctly stamped with a correct date/time stamp, what does the chip do?
Most probably: it forwards a red alert message which makes the screen in the control center flash to attract the attention to the location where something is wrong.

How does anybody know how the chip behaves and what the control message being generated will cause if these things aren't tested if they are Y2K proof or not?

I have in the meantime learned that most of these control chips allow to set date/time. Therefore most of them can be tested by simulating the Year 2000 event and to find out how they behave.

But these tests will not happen if the awareness of the problem is not being created.

If the above seems easily to understand to you it might be a good idea to put these concerns into your own words and forward it to people who are in the position to make decisions about electrical power plants. Usually, these people are not aware of the problem and think, security systems are not date/time sensitive.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:26 - ID#335190)
European defence industries don't follow U.S. pattern

LE BOURGET, France ( AP ) -- The world's biggest land-weaponry show was a snapshot of Europe's defence industry: a dizzying array of companies looking for alliances in the post-Cold War era.

But U.S.-style merger mania -- 40 defence companies have been merged into four since 1993 -- has yet to hit Europe.

"The trend is toward more consolidation but not with the aim of a single consortium," said Ian Kemp of the influential Jane's Defence Weekly.

National-security concerns and the tens of thousands of jobs that stand to be lost have been holding up European mergers.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:35 - ID#29048)
The U.S. government has terribly mismanaged the funds. We may be "owed".
We surely have been swindled. I don't want to be further enslaved in order to "fix" the current problems. I'm betting that even my "bozo award" gold and silver investments are worth more at retirement than whatever may come from the failing utopian experiment you love so much. Time will tell.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:42 - ID#45173)
NJ: Great post on Reagan/Clinton re China
Reagan inspired the people of the Soviet Union to rise up against their oppressive state by using his position to make public the lie of Soviet state power. He told the people of the Soviet Union what the Soviet people already knew, that their government was not fit to govern them, that it was weak and corrupt, ripe to be overthrown. He also pledged US support when the old Soviet Union began to rebuild as democratic, capaitalist states. Coming from the US president, this gave the people the confidence to act.

Will this approach work in China? I got an education from my wife on this topic this morning. Believe me, she and her family in Taiwan do not like Clinton. You should have heard her yesterday after she read Clinton's public denouncement of Taiwan as a sovereign nation. There's no reason for him to do that except as political payoff. She made tolerant1 sound like a Clinton fan. Clinton's corrupt entaglements with the Chinese government and selling out of Taiwan aside, the strategy of engaging China non-confrontationally may be the best policy. The Chinese Communist government is oppressive, but it is not weak and corrupt. Inciting revolution will have a very undesireable result. China has a reason to become capitalistic and democratic over time and they are doing it: they see that the combination of capitalism and democracy applied in China will make China the most rich and powerful nation on earth. That is their objective. China cannot undergo this change instantaneously or in a revolutionary way. If you have any doubt that the change is happening rapidly, you need only go to Shanghai today versus even five years ago. Five years ago it looked like another bleak, communist industrial port city. Now it looks like New York City, complete with green-haired chicks in miniskirts.

Clinton has embarrassed all of us by selling out Taiwan for his personal interests, a truly loathsome event. His policy on China, while uninspiring, may be the most effective.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:50 - ID#34883)
I just don't understand this employment/unemployment concept and because of this most of the data from the bureau of labor and statistics and also much commentary on business pages of daily newpapers, makes no sense to me at all. I just don't get it... Is there an unemployered?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:52 - ID#341189)
Are the SA golds hot or not?
The JSE all gold jumped from 595 on Mon to close at 778, a rise of 30%. Over the same period the gold price in rand rose from 1740 to 1874, a 7.7% rise. This seems extraordinary, yes?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:59 - ID#373284)
Namaste' In the past couple of days I have been attacked by cars doors, and
relentless pre-occupations of the emotive me undaunted...I wear a smile...I really am a simple fellow looking for no more in life than the smile on a little persons face...

This then is the REAL WEALTH...YES...YES...

And to all my FRIENDS at the Nikko in Beverly HILLS...I salute each and every one of YOU!

And MIKE the egg timer was a nice touch...heh...heh...heh...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 11:59 - ID#253246)
Dines still singing a 98 PM bull

DInes still optomistic even after the thrashing he has taken on Silver Standard myself included

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:00 - ID#431200)

Since 3000 years,how long was Taiwan independent and how long was it part of China?I would like to know a good site on history of Taiwan.Thanks.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:01 - ID#254112)
@EJ: I liked your post on China
China is economically and by peomoting a kind of grass-root capitalism on the right way. It cannot be compared with the former Sowjet Union.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:05 - ID#253246)
for dines

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:07 - ID#335190)
Mole @ 11:50
Mole, I put myself in the same position as you. When you state: " employment/unemployment, makes no sense to me at all. I just don't get it"

I hope others can help us understand.

Thanks Take Care

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:09 - ID#34883)

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:11 - ID#373284)
AMERICAN...not NO way...NOT NO HOW PAL...GOD BLESS AMERICA and that's that and this conversation is done...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:14 - ID#29048)
What do you mean by unemployered?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:20 - ID#34883)
An unemployed employer.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:23 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste' MY you and your Lady...A magnificent Island that is
Long SALUTE TO YA!!!call Ronnie...Dezyns 51 six my keyboard is screwed up...six seven three three two three eight...he loved your stuff...this is a good full trust and faith...

Mr. Mick
(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:25 - ID#345321)
Disney - re: SA tribal warfare - it was predicted to heat up by ..............
none other than Davidson and Rees-Mogg in TGR. Sorry to blow their horn, but they seem to be right. Again.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:25 - ID#210235)
Here's a Taiwan history site:

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:31 - ID#45173)
Michael Kosares
MARKET UPDATE 7/2/98 ) AM --- Gold dropped in early trading in a trend that started overnight in both London and Hong Kong. The down side coincided with more yen problems as yesterday's euphoria over the Japanese bank rescue package turned to disappointment. We don't like to say 'we told you so' here; but, 'we told you so' in yesterday's report. That aside, IMF Director Camdessus proclaimed this morning that the yen's fall threatened the Asian recovery -- how he concluded that Asia was indeed "recovering" is left to the imagination. All we see is more storm clouds gathering on the horizon with little being done about the problem either in the United States or in Asia. Yesterday's decision by the Fed to leave interest rates where they were is a very strong indicator on this side of the Pacific that the U.S. is not particularly interested in stemming the yen's descent into oblivion. At the same time the announced Japanese program to prop up its teetering bank sector also leaves much to be desired with some analysts saying that major banks could fail and that the Japanese government will be called upon to bail them out. This makes a bigger hole for the yen to fall into. As we keep saying, the next move is China's and if we don't get a devaluation soon we will get it later. The Chinese economy is straining despite the Clinton administration propaganda to the contrary and China will not twiddle its thumbs while its economy goes over the cliff. More than one commentator has pointed out that such a move would take us into Asian Contagion II with all that that portends. Gold as we have said before follows the yen these days, or both go the opposite direction of the dollar if you will, and that explains today's market. At the same time, we think once all this sinks in, it will cause strong demand globally for gold as a portfolio vaccine against the Contagion, including in Asia for those who still have assets left to convert.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:33 - ID#373284)
Mr. Mick, Namaste' to you and your Lady all that is my heart...
ALL that is MY HEART...The Sun is up...THE SKY IS BLUE...Beatles...THE VERY BEST FROM ME to YOU and the both are always in my THOUGHTS...ALWAYS...................

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:42 - ID#434108)
Mr. Mick @ 12:25
Any url ? - for Davidson & Rees-Mog, TGR ?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:46 - ID#34883)
I agree. What I'm not so sure about is whether the premises for the concepts employment/unemployment/employer can be understood with any reference to reality in the manner in which they are commonly presented. An employee is an employer employing himself? Who is employing the employer?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:47 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste'...each and every one OF MY days shines so brightly
that I know I am sharing the same Air...the ENTIRE ISLAND that is LONG sends a most respectful SALUTE to you and YOUR'S...all that glistens in small childrens eyes is brought about by you...

In YOUR honor...I shall sit with the little people...and read a story...

(Fri Jul 03 1998 12:57 - ID#45173)
thx for the great Taiwan site.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:00 - ID#410198) a native your post was spot on...hats off to you sir..I get like this when I read facts

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:03 - ID#43349)
Twilght zone
Look carefully through this discussion of the overnight events and you will find the words "european bank buying". Coulf there have been any change in CB thinking come out of Barcelona?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:06 - ID#43349)
European bank buying
Any way you slice it you come up with european banks supporting the price of gold.

Think about it.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:07 - ID#29048)
Mole and 6-pak
I sense in your statements about employment/unemployment a certain disdain or distrust for "official" definitions. Am I right?

Here is the "Official" definition from the official site ( U.S. govt. )

People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid
employees during the reference week; worked in their own business,
profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours
in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons.

People are classified as unemployed if they meet all of the following
criteria: They had no employment during the reference week; they were
available for work at that time; and they made specific efforts to find
employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference
week. Persons laid off from a job and expecting recall need not be
looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployment data
derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits.

The site referenced above gives a decent explanation of how the numbers are collected, computed and presented. Hope this helps.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:08 - ID#45173)
HAGGIS: Yank baiting -- Ok, I'll bite
No culture in the USA? Are you kidding? We have hundreds of cultures here. You're free to live the one you want, more or less, rather than be pressured to conform to a single national culture. That's the main reason why so many more people come here than leave.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:08 - ID#335190)
Industrial Production prepared by the Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System??????
Mole, maybe, just maybe, the Federal Reserve Corporation, is not interested in making the number's make sense, nor, are they interested in having an understanding of the question's " An employee is an employer employing himself? Who is employing the employer?

From my view point I am as you are, question's, no resolve eh! I found this site, maybe you can find a clue to the question's. I do not trust the number's provided by the Federal Reserve Corporation System. But, that is my view.
Take Care.


First Quarter 1998

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported revised productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the first quarter of 1998.

The data sources and methods used in the preparation of the manufacturing series differ from those used in preparing the business and nonfarm business series, and these measures are not directly comparable.

Output measures for business and nonfarm business are based on measures of gross domestic product prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Quarterly output measures for manufacturing reflect indexes of industrial production independently prepared by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. See Technical Notes for further information on data sources.

Nonfinancial corporations

Preliminary first-quarter 1998 measures of productivity and costs for nonfinancial corporations also were announced today ( tables B and 6 ) . Productivity rose 2.6 percent in the first quarter, as output increased 7.2 percent and employee-hours grew 4.5 percent ( seasonally adjusted annual rates ) . In the fourth quarter of 1997, productivity had increased only 0.6 percent as output and hours grew 4.9 and 4.3 percent, respectively.

Nonfinancial corporations include all corporations doing business in the United States, except banks, stock and commodity brokers, and finance and insurance agencies.


First-quarter 1998 gains in productivity, output, and hours in manufacturing were considerably lower than those recorded in the fourth quarter of 1997. Productivity increased 0.7 percent in manufacturing in the first quarter, as output rose 2.0 percent and hours of all persons increased 1.3 percent ( seasonally adjusted annual rates ) . In the previous quarter, productivity had risen 4.3 percent, reflecting gains in output and hours of 8.2 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. The first quarter productivity gain in durable goods industries, 0.4 percent, was down sharply from the 6.7 percent gain in the fourth quarter.

Productivity gains in nondurable goods industries, however, were the same in the first and fourth quarters, 1.2 percent ( tables 3, 4, and 5 ) .

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:17 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Good catch -- I did distinctly read "European bank buying"
and think, what an odd thing to do when gold no longer has value as a monetary reserve. When CBs are selling, or threatening to sell, or, um, were until recently. Why the change of heart? Or is it the extension of a strategy for the euro?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:20 - ID#43349)
Ping pong
So, in essence, the action has been moves in one direction or another depending upon the zig or zag of the yen/dollar. Constraints have been between producer selling above 294 ( particularly around 295 ) and european bank buying below 294. As I recall the producers are currenlty net short. The banks, by nature of their reserves if nothing else, are essentially net long. Interesting.

From comments arising from the meetings in Barcelona one got the impression the baks had been paying little attention to the total effect of their actions on the gold market. If this is a whiff of new things in the air and the banks are going to get involved with supporting prices then it shouldn't be long before we see a rise in lease rates.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:29 - ID#350194)
EJ - You're right! A Great Society ( ala Johnson ) composed of hundreds of sub-cultures. Step right up!Take your pick! Sure to be one made to suit your tastes. ( We're all Bozo's on this Bus - Firesign Theatre. ) Personally, my favourite American sub-culture that I again want to experience ( have you ever been experienced - Jimmy ) is the Las Vegas sub-culture. ( Even though this urge was justifiably denigrated by someone this morning. ) In my case though I will even things out by leaving subsequent to my entry. ( There's no place like home - Dorothy. ) Sorry Bart but Gold IS in the doldrums, and, as someone else pointed out last night ( and I agree ) it is almost a waste of time trying technical analysis on it right now! Actually in case it hasn't been discussed ( I haven't been around for a little while ) it seems to me that we are forming a very meaningful sideways channel. "When Comes the Break-out?" Sub-title - "When Ends the Cusp?"

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:30 - ID#269207)
@Prometheous FOR Forever
finding and leaving small treasures at our feet......

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:42 - ID#210235)
@Good morning, guys, and thanks
Tolly, this one's for you:

The IMF in their wisdom is demanding that Russia "crackdown" on tax non-payers. Yeltsin is, with IMF approval, making an example of a large gas utility company, by siezing their assets August 1. But wait, the government owes said gas utility millions - the government and most everyone else isn't paying for their gas! Alice sits at the Mad Hatter's table once again.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:44 - ID#389378)
Hello from Colorado.
HEllo Prometheus, All:
Day Three meeting Squirrel, Having a great time. Squirrel is a gentleman and a warrior! And a Kitcoaholic. The best.
Weather is dry, mild temps And clear skys.
I am on the way to Arkansas, I won't be visiting the tourist sites of the first fellons. Just an Aunt or two.
The Kids are enoying the vacation, The wife can't believe I'd try to post on Kitco.
I see POG being same,samo.
Go gold.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:51 - ID#335190)
Chile asks mining operations to register with govt

SANTIAGO, July 3 ( Reuters ) - Chile's government has asked some mining operations to transform themselves into publicly registered companies and is now waiting for their reply, the government spokesman said on Friday.

Chilean law requires such operations to register with the government. The registration would force them to inform the government of their earnings and important decisions they make.

The request comes amid some politicians' attempts to get tough on mining companies and make them declare their earnings and as Chile's revenues from copper exports fall due to depressed copper prices.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:57 - ID#210235)
@Commodity markets catch holiday spirit.
Gold firms, last quoted at $294.50/$295


(Fri Jul 03 1998 13:58 - ID#335190)
Arabs lift blockade of Jewish settlements

KFAR DAROM, Gaza Strip ( AP ) -- Palestinians lifted a blockade of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip today, ending a 12-hour standoff in which Israeli and Palestinian troops scuffled, screamed accusations and pointed guns at one another.

"Yesterday's attempt to use a very major violation of the Oslo ( peace ) agreements," Netanyahu told foreign ambassadors. "Violence will set the Palestinians back and the peace process back."

Right-wing ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet accused the government of caving in to the Palestinians.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:03 - ID#224363)
Gollum nice catch
'European bank buying props gold up today...'

After following the intense scrutiny given to gold over the last few years, I sometimes wonder if the Euro Union has caused the most of the decrease.

Here is wild theory to mull over. The Dutch and Belgium CBs sold their gold to get some nice clean cash on their balance sheet. Although they knew this would hurt the price, the benefits of tidy financials statements were more important to them. Now the kickerthey didn't do this because they have no use for gold as a reserve asset but rather because they knew a strong unified Euro ( Germany, France, etc. ) would do whatever was required to ensure that the Euro was a strong currency.

( I.E. They sold their gold to get the immediate benefit all the while knowing that when the Euro became reality, the burden of a strong Euro would be shared amongst many players. As smaller players in the Euro community, their efforts to help maintain a strong Euro would be dwarfed by the big players. )

Outside of Europe, I think CB gold sellers like Canada and Australia have simply resigned themselves to being fiscally dependent on the US. Why not when most of the items you sell are priced in $US and most of the items you buy are imported.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:05 - ID#401460)

Friday July 3, 11:47 am Eastern Time

Seidman sees $1 trillion bad loans in Japan banks

NEW YORK, July 3 ( Reuters ) - Japan's banks have about $1 trillion of bad loans, which is much higher than official estimates of $546 billion ( 77 trillion yen ) , former U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman and CNBC chief commentator Bill Seidman told the cable channel on Thursday.

``When they get done, they are going to find they have a trillion dollars in bad loans, not losses, but bad loans,'' Seidman, who has been acting as an advisor to the Japanese government, told CNBC.

Seidman expects Japan's Diet to adopt the bridge bank legislation and a banking reform package this month.

Japan's government approved a plan to form government-operated bridge banks to take over banks overwhelmed with bad debt.

``They are looking for a system to clean up their banks and not close them. This is a way to do that,'' Seidman told the cable channel.

Seidman expects the bridge banks to sell assets at a loss as part of the process of cleaning up the bank's finances.

Japan's banks have not paid for the problems with the bad loans through higher deposit insurance premiums, he noted. The FDIC raised deposit insurance rates when U.S. banks were having trouble with bad debt in the early 1990s, he added.

The government earmarked 30 trillion yen to stabilize the banking industry.

Seidman also said Japan will have to raise its interest rates in time for its deregulation of its financial services industry, since bank depositors who are receiving low interest payments will be able to invest in higher yielding U.S. Treasury bonds.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:07 - ID#269207)
@ Prometheus Alice may well be at the
Mad Hatters Table, but I think we are all invited to the Ball!!!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:14 - ID#335190)
Weakening Auto Demand @ Outstanding Debts ( We are expected to believe BB's will lift Dow higher.
Moody's puts Toyota long-term debt rating under review

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Moody's Investors Service said Friday it will review Toyota Motor Corp.'s long-term debt rating for a possible downgrade, citing increased competition and weakening auto demand in Japan and throughout Southeast Asia.

The long-term debt of Toyota and its subsidiaries currently at Aaa, the Wall Street agency's highest rating. The review affects about 400 billion yen, or $2.9 billion US, of Toyota's outstanding debts.

Japan brings auto dispute with Canada to WTO

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan filed a complaint today with the World Trade Organization accusing Canada of a discriminatory automotive policy, Kyodo News agency reported.

The Japanese government argues that Canada's provision of limiting its waiver of duties on automotive imports to some manufacturers, including subsidiaries of the Big Three U.S. automakers, violates world trade rules, the report said.

Officials could not be reached for comment.

Japan has long lobbied for scrapping the tariff, saying it violates most-favored-nation treatment under world trade rules.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:18 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste' twenty thousand of the best that AMERICA has to offer
tipped their HATS...each and every one of them...a gentleman...IN YOUR HONOR.........

they are a tough bunch...but I am meaner ( sixty inch chest ) then they could HOPE to be...

but to be truthfilled...

they SALUTE...tip their hats in HONOR of YOU...these then are Marines of these UNITED STATES...

A MOST Happy Day to you Lady!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:26 - ID#20748)
Clinton is likely to return with a piece of paper in hand pronouncing "peace in our time."

Appeasement of dictators results only in war.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:39 - ID#269207)
@ all I have an appointment again......
THOR IS BACK A BANGING ON MY DOOR........have a good one!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:51 - ID#34883)
gold as money
A defense of gold as a monetary unit circa 1943:

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:55 - ID#34883)

Bully Beef
(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:56 - ID#259282)
Don Coxe of Harris Investment Management( Bank of Montreal ) says that deflation is coming.
Too much productive capacity chasing too few buyers.Quoth he..."Gold has been a good investment in the past periods of deflation because it holds it's value while everything else is falling....But it's time may be coming."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 14:58 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

Short term charts look UGLY!!!
But long term chart shows we are at 5 year low.
Also Precious Metals is doing MUCH better

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:07 - ID#434108)
Below, I am re-copying/re-posting here, what I believe to be an outstanding, valuable 'post' by Steve ( on 6/13th I think ) ,
altho I do not have his permission ( -or kitco's, for that matter )
to do so.
But first, I'd like to repeat some words, a quote, attributed to
Thomas Jefferson.... ( -can't 'hurt' too much, to remember a few
of the founding fathers' ideas, at this time of celebrating
liberty's holiday in N. America: ) :

"If the American people ever allow the banking system
to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation;
their children will one day wake up homeless
on the continent their fathers conquered."

( ( My opinion only: Seems to me we are about 1/3rd to 1/2 half ...
of the way 'there' - to homelessness - on a world-wide scale.

SE Asia is on the brink of utterly destitute millions; and
a similar 'contagion' is rapidly spreading around the globe...

and the global result of this deadly recipe of....
of floating/sinking paper-currencies created
by wishful thinking politicians....
combined with
the schemes of bank-credit manipulators of madness.....

this potent potion..
is continuing to spread its contagion....
to Japan, So. Africa, So. America, Russia, Mexico....

and who, and next?

There is a 3rd ingredient, or aspect, or essential
( -which is less under-stood ) in the nature & definition -
of money, after the first two:

#1. being it's quantity/amount - that is, the inflating,
&/or deflating of supply of money & credit -
( this includes interest rate costs/availaibility ) ;

#2. the resultant place of supply meeting demand is the union known as price-- describing the value placed on goods & services,
in the market-place, in the terms of that money;

#3. velocity - this is the elusive, vital, strategically
imporant part, aspect, nature of money....that is seldom
addressed, or understood, or appreciated.....
and it's symptomatic of why the global economy
today is headed into a world crisis ...
of ominous possibilities...
for homelessness & poverty on massive scale.

It is "velocity" -- the rate of use of money, that is revealing
the unfolding Asian contagion,
as it spreads all over the world.

Velocity, or the rate of use of money,
is the most direct, clear demonstration that -
money reflects the inherent freedom of choice,
that is innate in all of humanity;
it is inherent in the essence of what it is to be
uniquely human, uniquely an individual.

Velocity reflects the essence of what it is
to be a human-being, because it mirrors the choices that
people freely make, as to when, where & how much ...
they choose to earn, spend, and/or save ...
of their money.

Velocity reflects money as a tool & instrument of
freely functioning, living entities of life with free-will, namely - human-beings.

And since human-beings, are by birthright and destiny...
destined to be captain of his/her own ship..
and master of his/her own soul....
we can look to the velocity of money, to reveal how this
freedom-nature of human-kind is reflected in
their free choices about spending or saving,
in the market-place of the economic world.

Velocity reflects that dynamic part of money,
that cannot be controlled, corralled, manipulated,
or managed, by all the central banks, governments,
and special interests in the world...
were they even find the means to collude with one another...
in one gigantic 'conspiracy'...
they will never be able to triumph over the spirit of freedom,
that is the heart and soul of humanity...

and this is reflected, in the world-game of money...
in what is known as 'velocity'.....
or rate of use - turnover of money.

When times are good, stable, reasonably reasonable,
with reasonable governments serving reasonable men/women,...
then, individuals & societies will exchange:
their money, goods, ideas, creations, inventions,
productivity, ventures, dreams, expectations, goals,
accomplishments, failures, renewals....
with one another....rather freely, even eagerly...

But when times are not reasonable, when governments
& their colluding interests, in banking & elsewhere,
have cornered & garnered too much power, too much control:
--of defining what money is;
--of the unnatural power of producing it out of thin air;
--of the cost of credit - how much credit is available, if at all, and how much it will cost you -depending on who you are;
--of who gets a tax-loophole, & who gets the tax-ax;
--of who gets subsidized, who gets kick-backs,
and who get's raided & looted;
--of who gets undermined, sabotaged... colluded against, and for...

When govts & their powers get too concentrated...
the power... does indeed corrupt...

And people will not so eagerly spend/exchange their money,
or their wares.....when they sense this corruption...
there will be a subtle, rising uneasiness among the
multitudes of freedom-loving men & women,
all over the world....
more and more people will refrain from being such
non-stop spenders/consumers .... credit hungry consumers that
the world economy has become so desperately dependent on

More & more individuals, societies, and nations, will find that
their government's paper currency, is not really, real money;
and that it cannot be trusted, that it can collapse on them,
almost overnight.

With spreading fears of spreading homelessness, spreading from nation to nation as their currencies topple, people cannot be forced to spend, if they sense they must squirrell-away & save..
what savings they can hold onto; & hold-back...
preserving what they can...
to endure the economic "rainy day" of hard-times...
that they sense is approaching.... a veritable, unfolding,
on-rushing, world-wide deluge.

The rate of use of money, it's turnover, its velocity, slows dramatically, and starts to collapse, as people sense the impending economic contagion, with the wolf at the door.

And no matter how much the powers that be..
-- grand governments & experts & IMFs, & ....
national leagues & alliances of grps. of 6 or 7 or 8's --
no matter how much they inflate or deflate...

no matter the inherently diabolical 'rescue' packages,

nor the back-room emergency sessions & maneuverings...

nor all the accusatory fingers pointed in blame
at one country's excesses...
as if the other nation ( s ) perpetrating the accusations,
were morally superior, and not equally culpable, and remiss...
this current state of deteriorating affairs ...
between governments, nations & societies...
is an ominous downward hurtling slide that threatens civilization...
for the sake of nothing more than...temporary postponement of the inevitable day of reckoning...that entire world community must share responsibility for, and face...

it is but one more pathetic example of world "leaders"
hiding in
cowardice, ignorance and scapegoating.....

on an international scale

And, if enlightened, courageous leadership, and aroused,
informed electorates, do not assert themselves soon,
this deteriorating state of affairs,
will bring homelessness to legions of innocents,
all over this teeming earth.

Just as Thomas Jefferson warned us, two centuries ago.

And now.....then....
what will the powers that be.....

Print more paper currencies - pretending it is money ?....&/or..
create more credit out of thin air?...and/or -
Force/whip people into spending money they refuse to spend,
but would rather save...
because they sense the economic times are not as good
as they seem on the surface....

That they might save their hard-earned money,
even if it means velocity falls, and even collapses, taking
corrupted, bloated economies and governments down with it...

For the individual of, and the family of, and the tribe of,
and the society of, and the nation of...
freedom-loving people ... found all over the world...
will do whatever it takes, to be free.

And they will save their money for a rainy day,
if they believe this vital to helping them remain, preserve,
or restore their economic survival...
their freedom of choice....
their dignity....
their liberty...
their life.

The velocity of money is the dynamic, pure reflection
of the truth of money... which reflects the truth of humanity.
And humanity is the essence of freedom.

In the final analysis, real money cannot be inflated, deflated,
nor controlled by governemnts or power-blocks,
or special interests.
Ultimately, what is money, and it's value,
and how it is used, and for what,
rests solely in the hands of free people.

History's lesson is that the only real, endurable, trustworthy
money, that free people, can freely exchange the world over;
and earn, save or invest ..... as the so freely choose,
is gold based, gold-convertible, gold-accountable
money & credit.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
July 3, 1998
San Diego, CA

Here is my attempted re-copy of the excellent kitco posting,
by 'Steve', from earlier in June:

Date: Sat Jun 13 1998 17:14
Steve in TO__A ( Drifter - Deflation: Milton Friedman . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright  1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
was wrong! Milton Friedman has come to be considered an infallible
oracle, especially
among the hard money crowd- but he has made some mistakes.

One of them was his assertion that deflation can always be
controlled by governments and
central banks. He said they just 'print money' and produce the
right inflationary effect to
counterbalance the deflation, i.e. if the value of currency is
increasing, then just debase the
currency in an equal and opposite amount.

Keynes is considered to have been completely wrong by the hard
money crowd, and that is
mostly true- but he was right about a few things. Keynes had
asserted that it is possible for
either deflation or inflation to spiral out of the control of
governments and central banks.

The image I like to use to describe it is a death spiral of an
airplane, where the airspeed
becomes so high that the pilot doesn't have enough strength to
overcome the forces on the
control surfaces and pull the plane out of its downward course.

In articles and a book published in the '50s Friedman boldly
asserted that Keynes' statement
was not true, that astute money management could always bring
inflation or deflation under
control. He also assigned the blame for the Great Depression
squarely on the Fed, claiming
they hadn't done enough, soon enough, to inflate.

He conveniently ignored the fact that after their initial confused
period, the Fed and Hoover
tried to massively inflate, and their efforts didn't change the
deflationary course of the
economy significantly. FD Roosevelt, the closest thing to a fascist
dictator the US has ever
had, tried stimulation via public works projects even more massive
than those Hoover had
instituted, competitive devaluation ( via his gold seizure and
change in the POG from $26.50
to $35 ) and printing money. The Fed couldn't lower interest rates
any further under FDR
because they had already gotten as close to 0% as possible under
the Hoover administration.

Friedman was wrong about the Depression, and he has been shown to
be wrong again by
the recent Japanese experience. They have tried to inflate, run
large deficits, started huge
public works projects, and have lowered interest rates almost to 0%
( they're proposing to
bring them from 0.5% down to 0.1% now ) - and *nothing has worked*
their deflation
continues. The US, being populated by staunch disciples of
Friedman, keeps pressuring them
to dig a deeper hole for themselves by borrowing ever more money to
finance all these
inflationary measures that won't work. Of course, the US moneymen
are looking out over the
edge of a precipice over which the Japanese threaten to pull them.

Once the deluge begins, either with a drop in the Nikkei under
14,000 or China devaluing,
and people start bailing out of US debt to meet their emergency
cash requirements, the
Goldilocks economy that Mrs. Rubin, Clinton & Greenspan are trying
to keep intact will
implode. Maybe a good image would be of the Americans attached by a
rope ( treasury
debt ) to the Japanese, who have started to slide down the side of
a cliff, dragging the
Americans toward the edge. The Americans are frantically yelling to
the Japanese: "do this . .
. do that . . ." but nothing works, the Japanese just can't get
enough traction to stop their
slide, and the Americans can't pull them back up. Eventually, the
Americans reach the edge,
and then they go over too . . .

If anyone is interested in the explainations Keynes had for why
inflation or deflation could get
out of control I'll post 'em later. Have to go out for dinner with
my lovely wife : )

- Steve

and it

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:08 - ID#373284)
My foot has just been trodden on
who..knew..they did not mean to...bigger than ever...MY LOVE IS EVERY WHERE...OUCH...that really did and understanding...Love...before my ears knew they could hear anything...

I SO very TRULY Love each and every ONE of YOU....

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:11 - ID#266105)

Happy trails. What'cha drivin'?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:29 - ID#433172)
Do you suppose God is time centered? If you suppose God, or God supposes us? Anyway,how can we have a seperation of church and state when everything we do legally is dated with a religious reference? Maybe by the TIME 2000 A.D. comes up we may think of a differernt reference point.

Complicity is usually a component of the role of the victim, maybe y2k is the religious seed of our destruction?

The revolutionary war could have been a big mistake. England bought the freedom of all within the Empire 30 years or so later, and a little while thereafter we fought the Civil War. Not the best social answer to solve the problem, we certainly could have had independence from England the way Canada and Australia and all got theirs.

I have four dogs, and they all agree. We will have a large increase in Volume Thursday. They don't know which one but no more than 2 away. Thursaday and Friday, back to back. By a factor of 100 times, now will that be up volume or down or does it matter? My dogs have never been wrong, and if they are.......

I find it hard to belive anyone thinks the people on the bottom are responsible for our economic woes. They could become a liability if the biological resources were strained to support us but that's not the case. It's clear to me our problems are coming from the haves, and the more they have the greater the problem. Isn't the oreintation of the rich, to get richer? put a media spin on everything? buy the politicians? globalise? pump up the Dow? develop everything? They have no problem out smarting the poor, never have had, but somehow it just doesn't work out.

If I'm not right aboutthe market I'll shut up. I did learn to shut up a long time ago. Best thing I ever learned. I'll keep the dogs tho.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:32 - ID#290118)
He is driving is 40ft land yacht.
If I see him again I'll refer your post to him.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:34 - ID#427357)

A very appropriate introduction is yesterday's comment by Bill Seidman, former U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp ( FDIC ) Chairman and CNBC chief financial commentator.

Mr Seidman "sees $1 trillion bad loans in Japan's banks"

NEW YORK, July 3 ( Reuters ) - Japan's banks have about $1 trillion of bad loans, which is much higher than official estimates of $546 billion ( 77 trillion yen ) , Bill

Seidman told the cable channel on Thursday.

"When they get done, they are going to find they have a trillion dollars in bad loans, not losses, but bad loans,'' Seidman, who has been acting as an advisor to the Japanese government, told CNBC.

ONE TRILLION U.S. DOLLARS IN "BAD LOANS"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think about that for a moment. That's a "1" followed by 12 zeros. I cannot identify with a number so large. can you?! Let's look at this astronomical number representing the Japanese banking systems "bad loans" - as Nippon-paid Seidman prefers to call the ocean of red engulfing the crumbling Japanese financial world.

If the Bank of Japan were to discover a miraculous cure for One Trillion Dollars in "BAD LOANS" via implementation of "BRIDGE BANKS" ( whatever the hell they are ) , how long might it take to resolve the draconian problem. Well, let's see. Assume the so-called financial wonder-drug called "BRIDGE BANKS" were able to amortize the "1" followed by 12 zeros in "BAD LOANS" at the rate of $1,000/second. ( HEY, that' a pretty fast remedy ) . This begs the questrion: HOW LONG WILL THE TOTAL CURE TAKE TO ERASE $12,000,000,000,000 in "BAD LOANS?"

Would you believe it would take about 32 years --- and that's assuming the BOJ doesn't "inadvertently" find a few gazillion more in "BAD LOANS" that completely slipped their minds and notice. ( Yeah sure! )

ALL Sarcasm aside - and Seidman's paid-for bias notwithstanding - it will indeed take a verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry looooong time before Asia will be again on the road to positive growth. In the interim Asia will yet endure more chaotic turmoil in its stock markets, while their fiat currencies continue meltdown.

ORACLE has come out of seclusion to post yet another expos of what is forecasted in the Far-East before things get better. The title of his timely report is:


Full report at the following URL - as usual it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the URL before posting it to your Internet locator:

(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:44 - ID#284184)
New High in S&P/Gold ratio, and a contrarian indicator...
Kitco was down when I was last on yesterday, and I couldn't post, so I'm just getting to this now.

The S&P/Gold ratio hit a new century-long high yesterday: 3.905. We are now 39% above 1968's peak day, and 154% above 1929's. The ratio is screaming "buy gold." We haven't seen anything like the current overvaluation of stocks relative to gold, for over 100 years.

Perhaps a contrarian indicator might also affirm that the time for gold to return to it's rightful place is in the following URL, from today's Chicago Tribune, "Gold Losing Glitter for Investors." The article reminds me of the "Death of Equities" pieces we read in 1980. Here are some quotes from folks in the article: "Central bank dumping of reserves is a graphic demonstration of the metal's irrelevance." " ( Gold ) hasn't really worked as a hedge against anything." "The public might perceive that it will go back up after a while. I don't happen to believe it. I don't see anything changing it. I wish I could think of something that would."

Talk about lousy sentiment!,1051,SAV-9807030473,00.html

I remember reading a quote from John Templeton once, that went something like this ( I'll paraphrase ) : "To be a successful investor, one must think like a philanthropist. When everyone is dumping their investments, and is selling at almost any price, be a nice guy and buy it from them. And when everyone is falling all over themselves to buy, buy, buy, an investment, be a nice guy and sell them yours!"

Seems like good advice for right now, when gold relative to stocks is cheaper than it has been for over one hundred years.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 15:59 - ID#242325)
A powerful deflationary wave continues out of Asia. But there are strong offsets. Too, here in Palm Beach, people tell me the real estate market -- fueled by the lowest mortgage rates in decades -- has never been hotter.

Deflation or inflation. Depends on where you live, what industry you work in and your consumption patterns.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:21 - ID#412286)
is moving better but pricing is difficult still except at the extreme high levels.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:24 - ID#45173)
NJ: Agreed on appeasing dictators
But who is the dictator in this case? Compare the current premier of China to his predecessors. Is he more or less dictatorial? I see a centralized government giving up power, not trying to consolodate it. Many years ago the Chinese government saw the economic and political limitations of Communism. After Mao died, they woke up to find themselves 20 years behind the Japanese and Koreans.

For twenty years now they have been changing their system as quickly as is practical, given the enormity of the population and geography, and the enertia of the past. I truly believe that China will become a democratic capitalist nation in our lifetime, and that it will be more successful than even Japan. If you really want to worry about China, worry about competing with a capitalist nation of a billion industrious humans, hungry to become an economic and political superpower. Imagine Taiwan, with its 21 million people, but 20 times the size.

Such a nation will have an enormous impact on our lives. Wait a minute, since we're all holding our breath on China currency devaluation, maybe they already are.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:29 - ID#45173)
OLD GOLD: deflation in the mfg sector will eventually bring and end to
inflation in the equities markets, which will in turn bring about deflation in the real estate markets.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:50 - ID#252150)
To all Americans
Happy July Fourth
May you have a golden day
With your kith and kin

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:50 - ID#434108)
OldGold 15:59's Deflation/Inflation
Real Estate is the paper dollar economies' sacred cow.
This is not meant, in any way, as a personal reply, or
criticsm, or rebutal to OG, or of Palm Beach, or even...
of real estae, or...etc.etc.etc.

It just a point of view, offered, in the sake & seeking of
thru our free exchange ofindividual, often divergent views...

Low mortgage rates do not an economy make...
nor do they prevent deflation
they are, at this time
a symptom & sign..
of unfolding deflation
that is already spiraling out of control...
just look into real estate values, mortgages, loans-hemorrhaging...
in HongKong, China, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Thailand,

is the idyllic paradise of
inflating, "prosperous" real-estate values...
in so. & central FL, or So. Cal, or Manhattan, or anywhere else...
to this spreading collpase of the world-wide real-estate
built on artificial credit instituions, banking & mortgage instituions....rooted in a fractional reserve banking system....
that is it itself..
rooted in paper - money.....

all of it .... created out of thin air...
how could anything be 'rooted' ....
in something created out of .....thin air....?!

mortgage rates will tumble & tumble...
and the powers that be
will continue to desperately hope for a miracle...
that they, and we, will be lucky enuf...
that we/our economies/civilizations...
just might be able to pull thru all this...
by pushing on a string...

but this...such a false miracle -- has been built on false money & credit....which for decades has been bloating real-estate
values, to ludicrous levels, and pumping over-capacity
constructuion projects to towering, sky-scrapering heights...
all over the industrializing, globalizing world of
national economic power-houses...
but alas...
as SE Asia is signalling us all....
such a false & insane "miracle"...of pretending
we can push on a string....
and make it work...
for long...not much longer at all...

Time is running out...on such pretense....
no... not much longer can we afford to pretend to be
living in the lap of luxury, where our treasured real estate



the bubble is breaking...

And a new miracle will replace all this inflated to excess,
till so over-extended, over-developed,
over-capacity-constructed... world...
an economic world that is - in part, and parcel...
dependent on...
ridiculously inflated real-estate values, that help
keep the banks looking solvent, and in accord with
'regulatory requirements' of debt to asset & equity ratios....

It must unwind, unravel, as it has already started to, in SE Asia first...but it will reach every last sacred pcket of real-estate nirvana in the west.....'rest assured'....

The inevitable collapse of real-estate,
and the world economy..
which have built on excess & imbalance...

will bring on..
the whole-sale cleansing...
that the economic reality of returning
to truely free-markets, and international, gold-based money,
will insure.

David Blair Macrory

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:51 - ID#45173)
Compulsory Savings in Singapore
An Alternative to the Welfare State
Mukul G. Asher


(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:53 - ID#43460)
robnoel__A, thankyou
Staying up kind of late aren't we? I wasn't sure it would be understandable but am glad the post made at least some sense. ( %-^] )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:59 - ID#242325)
What's Good for GM No longer Good for US?

Pat Buchanan's Twice-Weekly Column

If your local newspaper does not feature Pat Buchanan's column, you should ask why.

Vince Page | Linda Bowles | Walter Williams | Home

Watch your job go South, young man

26 JUN 98  What's good for America is good for General Motors, and vice versa," GM's "Engine Charlie" Wilson told Congress
in 1953. Rewritten by a malevolent press to read, "What's good for General Motors is good for America!" the line was endlessly quoted
as a reflection of corporate America's arrogance and greed.

But Charlie Wilson had it right. In the 1950s, GM employed more workers, paid the highest wages and the most taxes, and had done
more to win World War II than any other company. Chevy, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick and Cadillac churned out the machines of war
that polished off Hitler's Thousand-Year Reich in 40 months.

But what's good for GM may no longer be good for America.

The title of largest employer in the USA long ago passed to the McDonald's and Wal-Marts. GM is now the largest employer  in
Mexico. And as the United Auto Workers strike spreads from Flint, Mich., it is easy to see where Motown's future lies: south of the
border, down Mexico way.

"Since 1978, General Motors has built more than 50 parts factories in Mexico, which today employ 72,000 workers, making its parts
subsidiary, Delphi Automotive Services, Mexico's largest private employer," writes Sam Dillon in The New York Times. In
Matamoros, "thousands of Mexican workers earn $1 to $2 an hour producing instrument panels and steering wheels for GM cars and
trucks." The U.S. minimum wage  $40 a day. The move to Mexico has become a target of UAW charges that GM is "putting America

In Juarez alone, there are 18 Delphi plants. Across from Juarez, in El Paso, Texas, the Times' Sam Howe Verhovek writes, "Four
years after ( the North American Free Trade Agreement ) lowered trade barriers, the cities along Texas' long border with Mexico that had
hoped to benefit are struggling to become more than glorified truck stops as they watch their manufacturing jobs go south by the
thousands." Unemployment in the border towns is higher than in Juarez and two to three times the U.S. average.

Not only GM is making its new Motown in Mexico. Ford has 11 plants there. Chrysler's new partner Mercedes will follow suit. Rival
Volkswagen has already shuttered its U.S. plant in Pennsylvania and moved production of its new Beetle into Mexico.

"Mexico is rapidly becoming the hottest destination for auto production," writes Joel Millman of The Wall Street Journal. "It is next
door to the world's largest auto market. It offers wages that make line workers cringe from Detroit to Stuttgart ... and it is home to a
growing legion of parts suppliers."

Eight billion U.S. dollars have been invested in auto factories and plants in Mexico since NAFTA; another $8 billion is expected by
2000. Auto and truck exports from Mexico to the United States hit 800,000 vehicles in 1997. They are expected to exceed 1 million this

Volkswagen alone will produce 450,000 vehicles in Mexico in 1998, and Japan, too, is siting new factories there. The attraction 
proximity to the world's greatest auto market and an open border, thanks to NAFTA. And oh, yes, wages at the Volkswagen plant in
Puebla average $13.50 a day. That's $1.69 an hour or about one-third of the U.S. minimum wage.

To economists who babble on about the "worldwide division of labor," this is all wonderful. After all, "the consumer benefits," they

But to an American who looks on GM, Ford and Chrysler as priceless national assets, it is disturbing. For what is happening is clear. All
manufacturing that requires large pools of labor is going to leave America. U.S. workers cannot compete with Mexicans who earn $1, $2
or $3 an hour. No U.S. worker can live on those wages. An American employer who tried to pay him that would be indicted for
violating federal and state minimum-wage laws.

Through NAFTA, we have guaranteed an endless hemorrhaging of our manufacturing base out of the United States. As for the
lower-paying service jobs we have kept, we have  with an immigration policy that brings in a million new people a year  guaranteed
an endless downward pressure on the wages of our native born.

Not to worry, we are told. Americans will keep the high-tech jobs in Silicon Valley. But Bill Clinton and Congress are trying to expand
 from 65,000 to 115,000 a year  the annual influx of high-tech immigrants from India and China. Apparently, not enough
Americans in this First World nation of 265 million are qualified.

Isn't that what they used to say about black folks?

Query: When did we vote to ship the Arsenal of Democracy abroad and to replace our domestic labor force with a foreign one?

Copyright 1998, Creators Syndicate

Vince Page | Linda Bowles | Walter Williams

(Fri Jul 03 1998 16:59 - ID#34883)
EJ (NJ:Agreed on appeasing dictators)
EJ: Good commentary, you write well. Only two points I take issue on. A capitilistic democracy? Methinks Capitalism is individual rights -- not group rights. 2nd I look forward to the consequences of China competing with our markets. The world is not a zero-sum-game universe for human beings, we benefit from the peaceful cooperation of the division of labor. Although it is competition...the rewards benefit us all.

Sorry to interrupt your conversation. The traders got a day off so I'm talking alot. All IMHO.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:07 - ID#43460)
Re EJ's real estate price deflation conjecture
There are many segments of real estate prices, some inflating faster than others. IMHO there is a specific segment, rural southern and midwestern timber and pasturage lands which is already showing some local market weakness and tendancy in that direction. This contrasts other segments are inflating to the stratosphere. IMHO The most overly priced land in America is recreational ranchland in Montana/Wyoming/Colorado, and coastal lands, particularly barrier island real estate, but the exurbs around Atlanta, Nashville, Houston, St Louis are approaching in ridiculous prices. IMHO

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:10 - ID#259400)
Economic Beliefs
At one time I believed as an article of faith that when the dividend yield on the stock market got down to 3% the market would correct. It always had. It always would. The dividend yield has been below, and lately, way below 3% for years now. I would venture exact dates and time spans but I've been sipping stump water for a few hours now and feel it best not to be too precise. At one time I believed as an article of faith that when the P/E ratios went above 20 that the market would correct. It always had. It always would. Last I saw P/E's are in the 28 range headed for 30 and have been above 20 for years. At one time I believed as an article of faith in the 44-50 month business cycle. About every four years or so interest rates would go up and the stock market would go down and a recession would come along and all was right with the world. It always had. It always would. At one time I believed as an article of faith that gold would hold it's value through thick and thin and that in the end it would be a store of value. It always had it always would. Well guess what folks. We have have one recession since 1982, a period of 16 years. We may well never have another. Interest rates have marched steadily downward with minor blips for 16 years. Gold has lost value year in and year out. Compare it's store of value rating compared to, say, 1982. Now I am reading about Dow 20,000. Shoot, why not. Nothing bad has happened for almost 20 years now, why think it will happen now. Basically what I am saying is I have a new set of articles of faith. The market will go up forever. It always has. It always will. Interest rates will go down forever. They always have. They always will. Gold will go down forever. It always has. It always will.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:10 - ID#427357)
no one seemed to notice...

there's something afoot!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:15 - ID#45173)
Mole: Your comments are welcome and appreciated
On capitalism and democracy, history suggests it's hard to have one without the other. You might say that capitalism is the most effective economic system for democracy. That's oversimplified, of course.

Yes, the more the merrier in the world trade economy. But the US was best off in terms of standard of living for Americans when all of the other industrial nations of the world were in ruins from WWII and the US had no competition. Competition with other nations always costs you something. The US competition with Japan, for example, has played out so that we have a lot of high-quality, inexpensive consumer goods and they have a lot of our wealth, some in Treasuries but most in savings.

What will competition with China cost us? I suggest a further drop in our standard of living.


Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:20 - ID#212323)
vronsky...something is afoot...
What has gone without notice that you are referring to?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:39 - ID#250121)
vronsky something is afoot?
If it's the Gold bull, methinks it has tinea. I hope I haven't put my foot in my mouth.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:41 - ID#212323)
Seems that the only thing afoot is I now head out the door.
I'm turning off the lights, also. Tolerant-One, YOU are in my thoughts on this glorious Independence Day-weekend.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 17:46 - ID#34883)
EJ 17:15
EJ: I still think you write well. Even if I disagree with everything you just wrote.:D ) 1 point: Competition forces innovation, change, entreprenereul spirit, forces one to better themselves to compete...and what are we competing for? More market share, more products that individuals covet... Selling something that people want, of course, I hope the check's one takes in exchange have some gold backing in them.

Methinks this Malthusian view of the world is most inimical to peace and prosperity.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:22 - ID#254112)
BIS Meeting in Tokyo on July 11: What can we expect??
Greenspan and Duisenberg, the most powerful CB bankers of the globe, will have their first summit meeting at this occasion.
The EURO and the US$ representatives will have one common interest: a smooth transition to the new financial world order ( NFWO ) . But what will this NFWO be like? Will it be dominated by the US$? Will there be a transition to share the reserve currency functions between the EURO and the US$? What role will the gold play?
Second biggest problem: What will happen with the Yen?

The meeting happens in Tokyo. The BIS makes a grande gesture to honor the most powerful creditor nation, Japan, with the choice of location. The meeting happens one day after the BIS has opened the first non-European dependency of the BIS in Hong-Kong. This is a strong statement of appreciation towards China, towards the capitalistic future of China.

I have the feeling, there will be a modest emphasis on gold for its role in the future of the global financial markets. Modest, because these guys are not revolutioneries. They want smooth evolution. But they will concede that the "thin air based" backing of reserve currencies is an experiment of the past, which has proven not to work. This is a bitter pill for those banking oligarchs who have drawn the greatest advantage out of this hocus-pocus money creation out of thin air.

My feeling is, global financial markets will change dramatically after these series of meetings, starting with the ECB meeting on July 7th.

These top money managers of the world cannot continue to pretend that nothing is changing. They kind of must show their flags. But they want evolution, not revolution. They'll mask what they want in softspoken statements in order to avoid eruptions. But it's hard for me to imagine that the DOW will raise another 30% after this meeting is over.

As far as gold is concerned: I do not think they will open promotion for gold and for it's future role which it will play in global financial markets. If they would tell the public what they think and want, the goldprice would jump in $50 or $100 increments. They will not be able to talk like ANOTHER. The problem will be to tame the wild horse, not to make it take off like mad. Of course, we all would like to see a different approach. But this is not realistic to expect.

But what is realistic to expect from the future role of gold? Would the world be happy with just another thin air currency? And maybe a third one? Confidence in currencies can only be maintained through a certain reference to gold, through some kind of gold backing, be it expressed as modest as diplomacy dictates. Without gold there is no future for the financial markets and for global economic expansion.

The representatives of the most powerful fiat currency will have to admit that it's time is running out.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:24 - ID#373403)
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
May 19, 1998

Votes against this action: Messrs. Jordan and Poole.

Mr. Poole dissented because he believed that the sustained increase in money growth in recent quarters and associated accommodative conditions in the credit markets pointed to rising inflation. Although faster productivity growth suggested that trend output growth might be modestly higher than previously thought, the growth rate of aggregate demand over the past two years clearly had exceeded the economy's long-run growth potential. Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise. In his view, the Federal Reserve should therefore take prompt action to reduce money growth to limit the rise in inflation and to avoid an increase in longer-term inflation expectations, which would tend to destabilize aggregate employment and financial markets.

Mr. Jordan also noted that the monetary and credit aggregates had accelerated further from already rapid growth rates in 1997. In his view, these high growth rates were fueling unsustainably rapid increases of real estate and other asset prices, and reports of "too much cash chasing too few deals" were becoming more frequent. Anticipated gains on both real and financial investments had risen relative to the cost of borrowed funds. In these circumstances, it was increasingly likely that the Committee would face a choice between smaller increases in interest rates sooner versus larger increases later. He added that maximum sustainable economic growth occurs when businesses and households act on the assumption that the dollar will maintain its value over time, and nothing he had heard from consumer groups, bankers, or other business people in his District led him to believe that decisions were being made in the expectation that the purchasing power of the dollar would be stable. Furthermore, expectations that market values of income-producing
investments would continuously rise relative to underlying earning streams were not consistent with a stable purchasing power of money. He also believed that the view that real interest rates currently were high was not confirmed by observed behavior. Bankers told him that both consumers and businesses believed that credit was cheap and plentiful. These potentially inflationary conditions and imbalances in the economy were not conducive to sustained maximum growth.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:25 - ID#36965)
Mooney et. al. and a joke of the day to boot
Mooney, I have taken your advise to heart and am now in the process of mellowing out. I reread my gold article and I am predicting that gold will be tickling 310 before the end of July. Hopefully the bulls will catch our eyes even earlier. And speaking of cathing our eyes I submit the following:

A man who lived in a block of apartments thought it was raining and put his head out the window to check. As he did so a glass eye fell into his hand. He looked up to see where it came from in time to see a young woman looking down.
"Is this yours?" he asked.
She said, "Yes, could you bring it up?" and the man agreed.
On arrival she was profuse in her thanks and offered the man a drink. As she was very attractive. He agreed. Shortly afterwards she said, "I'm about to have dinner. There's plenty; would you like to join me?"
He readily accepted her offer and both enjoyed a lovely meal. As the evening was drawing to a close the lady said, "I've had a marvelous evening. Would you like to stay the night?"
The man hesitated then said, "Do you act like this with every man you meet?"
"No," she replied, "Only those who catch my eye."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:27 - ID#45173)
Mole: I endeavor to express my views as eloquently as possible
and reserve the right to be wrong. Thanks for the kind words.

Actually, I'm in more of a Malthusian mood than Malthusian in my thinking generally. I have argued here before that free trade and technology are powerfully deflationary forces that have balanced inflationary forces in all other sources in the economy, especially inflation evidenced in the equities market. My point on technology was that while my 1997 car costs several times more in 1964 dollars than the 1964 car I also own, the 1997 car might cost 100,000 times as much in 1964, if it were possible to manufacture it at all. So perhaps the stock market reprents real increases in value. On the other hand:

"The Federal Reserve said: 'There is no means of knowing beyond question how far this recent rise in stock prices represents excessive speculation and how far a readjustment of values to increased industrial efficiency... and larger profits.'

"But it was not Alan Greenspan who said it. This is an extract from the Fed's minutes exactly 70 years ago, in 1928, on the eve of the Wall Street crash."

It's hard to tell exactly where you are and where you're going without tomorrow's newspaper.


(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:35 - ID#43460)
Aragorn III you are mistaken sir,
Independance Day is 4 February, not 4 July. 1861, not 1776. but have a nice weekend anyway. My good wishes go with you and your family and all the others released from toil for a couple of days. ( 8-^ ) )

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:36 - ID#45173)
Mole: One more thing, thx for the gem of a site
Why Real Money Is Indispensable.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:38 - ID#250121)
Tomorrow's newspapers may be quite similar to yesterday's. Have a look at p 442 of The Great Reckoning. Comments from the Wall St Journal 1 April 1930.

To summarise: It's gonna be a bright, bright, bright, sun-shiny day.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:43 - ID#45173)
Tortfeasor: Here about the great restaurant that opened up on the moon?
Great food but...........................................................
no atmosphere.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:45 - ID#36965)
EJ, loved the joke. Great view of the earth though eh?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:50 - ID#412286)
Pat Buchanan's article
is great..while the big boys rape the working people they have to tell us CONSTANTLY how wonderful things are. BTW this was done in the USSR and Nazi Germany. IN SUM....THE US ECONOMY IS BOOMING ON ALL FRONT PAGES AND IN ALL NEWSROOMS...Enjoy the good feelings... The collapse of stk mkt when it happens will allow working people and progressives to regain control of this country and establish a firm base for prosperity for more than a few as has been done overseas.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:53 - ID#45173)
ROR: Pat Buchanan leads the charge
on class warfare? Go figure!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 18:57 - ID#34883)
Well said. Glad you enjoyed the link. I get my share from this site so I'm happy to contribute one that somebody uses.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:05 - ID#31270)
DOes anyone have the URL where ANOTHER is passing his opinions?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:07 - ID#412286)
Class Warfare
When the concentration of wealth reaches the unseemly proportions of today class warfare is inevitable and desired once things turn down. Further there are always members of the upper class who will assist ala the Roosevelts, Kennedys, Barbara Streisand and Warren Beatty artist types. My sister is a conservative and she heard Ted Kennedy on TV and to her shock agreed with almost everything he said. The reason is that the right is run by Big Insurance and big business which are filled wityh insatiable and unhealthy greed. When Newt says an HMO cant be sued when its accountants deny treatment and thereby sentence someone to death he has lost touch. The economic collapse will go along way towards villainizing the big business types who are destroying the country. BTW villainization of these types is important in regaining a progressive economic consensus in the nation. Chain Saw Al Dunlap is an example of the ilk who we should put into disrepute and in some cases hopefully prison and poverty.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:12 - ID#287186)
George & all PROGRAMMERS re: TIME and a new date field
In your 15:29 you stated: Maybe by the TIME 2000 A.D. comes up we may think of a differernt reference point.
That got me thinking and looking for a good reference. For precision it should be a specific nearly instantaneous event - not some drawn out process. Accuracy to within a few tenths of a percent of the elapsed time would be good enough. The date of 0000 was no nearer than that to the date of Christs birth.
An EARTH-SHAKING point-in-time event that radically changed the history of life on this planet.
If that is not qualifications enough - I do not know what is!
The age of the Chicxulub crater has been put at 64.98 million years:
The above figure is accurate enough for a new reference point.
*** TODAY.NOW = K-T date 64,981,998.5059
The first four digits from the K-T event, the last four from our current calendar thus conversions are easy ( it also gets around making up the last four ) . The first four decimal digits add precision to the nearest hour and the next four digits bring precision to a third of a second. Sixteen digits make for a 128-bit date code. This matches the 128-bit micro-processors from Sun, IBM-Motorola, and Intel-HP that will be launched next year.
A sixteen digit date field would give us 35 million more years before Y100M.
Here is an interesting discussion on impact extinctions:

To Every American - Happy Independence Day.

( Which just happens to have fallen on July 4th which was also the day in 1826 that both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson died.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:17 - ID#377235)
Buchanon Right
ROR, the "Right" you're referring to with all the big business types is the country club set. They are not libertarian conservative or social conservative. They are to a large extent embarrassed by these. They are not Buchanon conservative either, though it's possible they may see it to their advantage to use such for their own ends. They are not, as a whole but with exceptions worth much. --AG

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:23 - ID#386245)
cheers, notnotnick

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:26 - ID#431366)
ROR - where do responsible working folk fit in your philosophy?
For a bit more on responsibility
See my post on Thu Jul 02 1998 13:21 and
AragonIII's response on Thu Jul 02 1998 15:24

The rich and powerful screw us from the top.
The poor and powerful screw us from the bottom.
The latter also are the irresponsibles in my post.

So us in the middle are just screwed until we revolt against BOTH top and bottom and until things deteriorate again after a hundred years or so.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:27 - ID#285392)
Suspicious and your Dec 2000 put options
Can you tell us the exchange that sells these options, the ones that appear to good to you and the price? Looking forward to your post. Thanks

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:33 - ID#427357)

Apparently, a decrease in the Rand value sparks rises in the JSE Gold Index

1993: Relatively small Rand/$ FX loss sparks 200+% rise in the JSE Gold Index

1995/96: Relatively modest Rand/$ FX loss sparks 70% rise in the JSE Gold Index

1998: Rand/$ FX just lost about 34% in recent months ( but accelerated last week ) . Subsequently JSE Gold Index soars more than 35% ( 800 to 1080 ) in last five trading sessions.

Like ol' cigar face once asked: Is this the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end?

Methinks Randgold & Exploration ( RANGY ) , Harmony Gold ( HMGCY ) & Durban Deep ( DROOY ) will soon soar!

Here are pertinent charts. Delete extra letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:37 - ID#348169)
Blood in the Streets
Sounds like ROR not only wants the stock market to collapse but actually wants to see LOTS of blood in the streets. Lots I could say but instead I think I will just put on my old John Lennon record 'Imagine'.
Tort - we are in a sideways channel that is getting longer everyday. When the break comes it could be up or down. My feeling at this point is that we may re-test the low 280's again. If so we had all better hope it holds! For an explosive ( upwards ) Gold market to develop, ( the kind many around here are dreaming of ) , probably the best thing would be for this sideways channel to stay intact for another 4-6 months. Then a breakout on the upside would be explosive. This is what I call the 'Surge Factor'.
Sweet Dreams.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:45 - ID#412286)
Big corporations are screwing us SOOO bad that even Nixonite Reaganite Buchanan cant stand it. The anti lawyer thing is because the courts and the contingent based fee system is the only power left to the average worker. The HMO thing is a disgrace but I love it. Showing how HMOs abuse people because they cant be sued is undermining tortreform.. My Motto JUST KEEP REPEATING "if an HMO's lack of treatment results in your spouses, childs, sister/brother or parents death...THE REPUBLICANS DONT THINK YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUE..." YA JUST GOTTA KEEP REPEATIN IT as T. Kennedy said.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:45 - ID#253153)
Market speculation
I saw an interesting interview with Ned Davis where he stated " the average US consumer has 39% of their assets in the stock market and mutual funds have only 3.9% of their are in cash. They are fully invested". In the event of a major market crash , the average consumer could be wiped out over night before they had a chance to sell their stocks. What a scary though.
P.S . Ned Davis is a well known stock market researcher who is based in Florida. His company advises institutions and banks on stock market investments.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:46 - ID#250121)
nick go the shears, boys. Nick, nick, nick*
Don't get yer knickers in a twist notnotnick, but didn't Haggis say Stralia was playing Safrica today at footie? He didn't accept my wager.

Do ya fancy a pretty NZ silver dollar on the game?

* A NZ sheep-shearer's song, often sung at the sheep-shearing championships. The competition is called "The Golden Shears." But they do sing click, not nick, notnotnick.

BTW for all kiwis
Fred Dagg has just re-mixed and re-released the Classic kiwi song "We don't know how lucky we are." It has gone to number 1 an may soon reach Platinum status.

There, 3 PM's in one post. 3 in 1.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:47 - ID#347235)
My cousin redneck says he is "feart" to come on Kitco 1 he says Bart will throw him off. Miss Lois is doing well and so is "Le Neck Rouge, he is waiting to see if his best buddies Pierre and Swamp Boy show up over here first.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:47 - ID#143214)
My cousin redneck says he is "feart" to come on Kitco 1 he says Bart will throw him off. Miss Lois is doing well and so is "Le Neck Rouge, he is waiting to see if his best buddies Pierre and Swamp Boy show up over here first.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:48 - ID#227238)
ROR: Your villification of the Corporate/Governmental axis is correct in its essentials. It just seems to me that you draw an incorrect judgement ( non sequitor?? ) from the view. Probably, because your view of government as a benign entity, is horribly flawed.

Without governmental influence, in all cultures - not just the US-, those power blocs would be unable to stand on their own. Using the government to set up a competing power bloc composed of the, mainly, disenfranchised will only exacerbate the problem. It won't make things better.

Perhaps it would be wiser, on this July 4th, to pay more attention to the Constitution as it was written in its mostly unamended form. Maybe we could even agree to disregard everything after the 10th amendment. Yes?.. We certainly won't be giving up much.

Then, you go your way and I go mine and the government will be prevented, nay prohibited, from intervening or taking sides as a political matter. ..... Sounds good to me. How 'bout you?

If, on the other hand, you wish to use government as a lever against natural law, ...... there will be no hope of resolution.

Alas, 'tis but a dream. To be found only in a bowl of opium.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 19:52 - ID#215379)
Gobal market
I thought gold and currencies were Gobal markets, but I guess the USA controls the World, the only market that can make it move, bah, humbug..

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:01 - ID#333126)
Micro$oft already contemplating Win98 Service Pack 1,3440,334238,00.html

notice the phrase "it will include 'lots and lots' of Windows 98 bug fixes" ...

gee... I thought Win98 was supposed to include heaps of Win95 bugfixes...

anyone dare short microsoft stock?

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:03 - ID#209265)
EJ - Let me make an alternative suggestion about China . . .
It's true that Deng and his cohorts realized that capitalism and a market economy would bring prosperity, and avert a Soviet-style collapse caused by complete economic breakdown.

They encouraged it, and people n the media have made the suggestion that they are slowly moving toward increasing freedom and reducing sociaal control "as fast as the country can stand it." This has almost become a truism that everybody believes, but only because if has been repeated so much.

I would make a different suggestion: that China is a kleptocracy, and that the ruling class is trying to promote individual economic initiative while making sure that political control remains in the hands of the party ruling class- so that they can enrich themselves and their "princeling" offspring at the expense of the populace.

I suspect that they won't make any changes that don't have to be made to increase economic output. I also suspect that they will fail to keep things under control. China's banking system is very unsound and it's industrial base is suffering from the effects of crony capitalism just as much as other places in Asia.

The only area where their reforms have had an effect is among the entrepreneurial people of the coastlands stretching from Shanghai to Canton. There is a vast economically backward hinterland in the west and the north of China that is populated by restive people who want to move to the southeast or be given the means to start creating the better standard of living that the southeasterners have. Once China's economy goes the way of the rest of Asia, as I think it must eventually, they could suffer the same kind of economic implosion that brought down the communist governments of Europe.

I know this sounds strange now, based on what the media is saying about China- but they didn't say anything about Japans internal economic imbalances until after they became apparent in the Japanese collapse. China's chickens will come home to roost, and when they do I predict we'll see some earth-shaking changes.

- Steve

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:06 - ID#250121)
Pass the pipe, you gotta be careful, turn it upside down, don't burn or drip (so I'm told)

"Whatever else might be wanting to a wise man's happiness, of laudenum I would have given him as much as he wished, and in a silver-gilt, if not golden, cup."

Confessions of an English Opium Eater. De Quincy

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:12 - ID#434108)
EJ's 18:27 Fed. Minutes from 1928
Where'd you get those?
Reference...please....? :____________
And I hope you will post it again, once a day at least.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:33 - ID#31270)
notnick (ANOTHER) ID#31270:
notnick ( ANOTHER ) ID#31270:
DOes anyone have the URL where ANOTHER is passing his opinions?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:48 - ID#248170)
Regarding the numerous high quality URL's that are pasted to this Kitco Forum, I think the html code target="_blank" could be used so that a second pop-up page would appear with this Kitco Forum page remaining in the background. This would enable viewers to maintain the same position when returning to this page.

For an example of what I mean goto

and 'click' on one of the listed items.

My e-mail

(Fri Jul 03 1998 20:59 - ID#253153)
Dow Theory viepoint
On May 4 ,1998 the Dow recorded a new high but the Transportation index refused to confirm on the upside by a wide margin. In order for the Dow bull market to continue , the Transport index must reach a new high's. Considering the parabolic move in the Dow stocks, I believe an implosion is imminent. The coming bull market in precious metals will not be driven by inflation . Instead, it will move up due to a bubble burst, which will undermine financial institutions as gold backed assets are used as a safe heaven. As someone recently said " when the market cracks below key levels, you can haul the dead horse off to the glue factory ".

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:01 - ID#34883)
url's/new window
ANOTHER way to open the link in a new window ( Netscape4.04 ) it to place the pointer over the URL and right click the mouse and select the Open In New Window option. This saves one from returning to a document that has an expired notice and having to reload a long span of full text again.

Also when reloading to follow current posts pressing the esc button on the keyboard stops the loading midstream eliminating the need to download the complete timeframe again.

silver plate
(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:05 - ID#290395)
Just checked out my ATM card and bank telepayment system and they are both Y2K compliant. Sooo not everything will be kaput.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:19 - ID#284255)
Federal Computer Week
Army successfully completes feds' first large-scale Y2K test

GAO fires Y2K shot across Navy's bow

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:19 - ID#28994)
The following statements are all credited to Winston Churchill and are worthy of due consideration.
"Whenever socialism has been tried, it has failed."

"All men are created equal says the American Declaration of Independence. All men shall be kept equal say the Socialists."

"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy."

"Socialism is contrary to human nature."

"Government of the duds, by the duds and for the duds."

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty."

"If I were asked the difference between Socialism and Communism, I could only reply that the Socialist tries to lead us to disaster by foolish words and the Communist could try to drive us there by violent deeds."

"Socialism assails the pre-eminence of the individual."

"Socialism is inseparably interwoven with totalitarianism and the abject worship of the State... This state is to be the arch-employer, the arch-planner, the arch-administrator and ruler, and the arch-caucus-boss."

"No Socialist system can be established without a political police."

"It is not alone that property, in all its forms, is struck at, but that liberty , in all its forms, is challenged by the fundamental conceptions of Socialism."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:29 - ID#257148)
Got a stogey?
as is this one

"If a man is not a Socialist when he is young, he has no heart. If he is not a Capitalist when older, he has no brain."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:32 - ID#284255)
This script works the best so far as I have found.

base target="_blank"

When it is installed in the header section.
I have designed my own homepage and this works real well.

It would be a great idea for links posted at Kitco - if it can be made to work.

I normally cut and paste to a new browser.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:36 - ID#335190)
Japan moves toward tax cuts after bank crisis plan released

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Isolated by growing pressure for quick action to fix its anemic economy, Japan's prime minister said for the first time Friday he would support a permanent tax cut to stimulate consumer spending.

Temporary tax cuts failed to stimulate the economy in the past because the Japanese -- known for their high savings rate -- simply squirreled the extra money away.

Officials contend that a permanent tax break will bolster consumer confidence, lead to greater spending and help Japan out of its worst recession since the Second World War.

The tax-cut talk was immediately welcomed by business leaders.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:40 - ID#284255)
Jeremy - BART
It works well.
I just saved a page from Kitco onto my hard drive.
Open the source code up and inserted:

base target="_blank"

enclosed it, just under the title.

Saved and gave it a test.
It worked perfectly on my machine.

Each link posted when activated opened a new browser.

BART - can this be implimented here.
All your avid followers would greatly appreciate this.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:41 - ID#412286)
New Socialism
is pro capitalist. Our philosophy is to protect legal rights of the little and the little Capitalist from the big capitalist. We are for a society that prevents overreaching and allows and helps people to succeed in a free mkt economy. The real threat to freedom and free mkts today is too much concentration of wealth and power. If these greedy people drive things too far then there will be disaster. Please do not equate socialism with the hackneyed outdated antics of the former Communist elitist dominated dictatorships. Socialism today means ensuring the most even playing field possible under law to ensure fair competition and the ability foe anyone to achieve in the free mkt without worry about things that could hinder achievement. Since achievement by one individual often benefits all society we support this type of environment. Al Dunlap is unfortunately an example of the current undemocratic form of Capitalism in the US is going to rightfully take it on the chin. Freedom to individually achieve YES BIG Corporate Tyranny and political Dominance NO Democratic SOCIALISM and progressivism YES!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:51 - ID#335190)
July 3, 1998

Cooler economic weather heading for U.S.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The summer forecast? Stormy and a lot cooler. Not the weather, the U.S. economy. Analysts see the United States headed for a dramatic slowdown in growth because of troubles in Asia.

And that is the best-case scenario. In the nightmare versions, economists fear the Asian crisis could spiral out of control, bringing down first Japan, then China and in short order engulfing the whole world in a global recession.

"The United States and other countries can't escape it," said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Primark Decision Economics in New York. "Since Asia turned out worse than expected, the U.S. economy will turn out worse than expected."

The big question, of course, is just how much worse.

"The world economy right now is very fragile and the problems in Asia are going to take a number of years to resolve," he said.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:52 - ID#284255)
Thoughts on market puts re Y2k market crash.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:54 - ID#386245)
G'day Auracious
I am trying to wean myself fron non-pm related posts. Don't think I'm going to make it.

I know this is heresy, but I have never been a big fan of Rugby Union ( or just RUGBY, as the purists would have it ) . A few weeks ago my broker called me and said "Hey Nick, I've got some tickets to the Aussie--Scotland match. Come up and join us." I replied, "Thanks,mate,but if it was on across the street, I wouldn't go see it!!" Now basketball is another story. I am suffering end-of-season withdrawal symptoms already. BTW, how is your silver/gold ducat wager going with Auric?? Has it plunged enough for you yet?

Now for relevance. This big surge in SA gold shares relative to the Rand. If it works for SA, why not OZ? Where is OUR big surge in Aussie gold shares relative to our plastic-on-a-roll currency. Not fair!!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:55 - ID#412286)
Democratic Socialists
are working hard world wide to defeat MAI and reign in Gatt and other international organizations which do not answer to an electorate. We work with human rights organizations to obtain legal representation for dissidents in all countries including the so called socialist countries. A greater dissemination of freedom and the ability to achieve is a primary goal along with the promotion of religious and cultural freedom. We are for promoting a more equal distribution of opportunity not necessarily wealth.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 21:57 - ID#433172)
Your suggestion on how to fix ate ourselves in the "time" stream sounds good to me.

Anybody remember a few years ago, in the 80's maybe, the gov was finnancing the destruction of diary herds. Too much milk they said. I thought it was horrendus at the time ( raised on a dairy farm ) , they were taking the whole herds and slaughtering them. Now what do they say? MIlk shortage people, that means it will COST more. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union happened overnight ,right? How come the CIA didn't mention it in advance? Apparently it was as much news to them as it was to me. Why is that?

We'd be better served by tourism than the CIA.

Steve in To is right about China, a kleptocracy is a good call. They certainly became a WORLD POWER overnight . Why is that?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:02 - ID#227238)
Skinny: Many thanks for Winston Churchill quotes. I had not read those before now. They were excellent. They are even more cogent, considering that the Great Man grew into manhood in the era of the Fabians. Whose wonders still excite legions of the infantile and congenitally defective. ....... and whose motto might be: "It hasn't worked in the past but, maybe, it will work this time". The triumph of hope over experience.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:02 - ID#411112) I got you...New the same as old socialism,however you guys just changed
direction....rather than nationalize industry and private business....the new socialist have figured out that you can still control industry and business by regulation.....owner ship without the hassel of responsibility....nice try buddy but I have your want what I produce because you are either to lazy or have some other excuse for not accepting personal responsibility

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:05 - ID#432221)

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:08 - ID#432221)

Capitalism has made this country strong. Your socialism can put a vacuum on my Richard. What the Hades are you thinkin'?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:09 - ID#284255)
Time Warping

Yesterday I ran Yes2yk.
The program to evaluate my computers compliancy.
One failed and one complied.
Failed on RTC rollover.

Not sure but this machine will possibly suffer from time warping.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:12 - ID#412286)
I dont want what you have we want to have a society which will ensure its security and help it grow. Tony Blair has expounded on some of this new theory as a memeber of the Socialist Internationale. Even Clinton has talked about the "third WAy" in accomplishing a truly democratic society. My friend true democracy can not exist with extreme economic hegemony. This is where the US is headed and it is dangerous to us all. Nobody wants to take anything that you own more than what everyone needs to contribute in order to maintain freedom and opportunity for all not the few. The Euro is occuring because of Europes more durable social system which lessens the potential for unrest which I am sure you will agree is a big problem in the US when the bubble bursts. As Democratic Socialists we are for moderation and making any economic transformations as easy as possible for the people. Those in power obviously do not like our ideals as they think we threaten them. This is not true as in fact through their greed they are the threat to themselves.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:17 - ID#432112)
"New Socialism" is too tired a title. I believe the inherent self interest of Economic Man dominates all aspects of our behavior, consequently I believe Democratic Capitalism maximizes utility. The problem, in my view, is how to improve information in order to incorporate non-economic costs into the system in a manner that better reflects the true costs of production. For example, what is the true cost of addiction, low education, poor health etc and how should we allocate resources to correct them. If you knew that poor parenting created murderous young, could you then dispense maternal nurturing to avoid creating Charles Manson? Would you, if you could? Maybe...Maybe not. Depends on how YOU were raised ( your value structure ) .
Hhmmm...What value structure do "New Socialists" have and is it compatible with mine?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:19 - ID#412286)
Capitalism with FDR's NEW DEAL made this country strong. And the Marshall Plan made Europe strong.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:20 - ID#411112)
ROR...Close but no still want government to set a level playing field,based on what,I

agree and have said for a while,that the MAI is governments worst nightmare because it brings two factions together however here is something to chew on....Capiltalism + Socialism = International Socialism

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:22 - ID#227238)
Grant: The capitalism you cherish is mostly an illusion. As Mozel has so eloquently stated, on many occasions, we have enjoyed the fruits of merely another form of socialism. The Corporate/Government model. It has been in place since the civil war, at least.

As an exercise, try to start your own business ....... and follow all the rules. Bet you can't do it. Who do the rules and regulations comfort? The people? Not likely. ...... Do they raise the bar of entry for competitors? Absolutely. ...... ROR's model will merely discover a more deserving class whose political bonafides are impeccable. But you and I will likely not be included. ..... Hell, it already works that way. Just consider the plight of smokers in the market place. They aren't politically correct so to hell with 'em.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:23 - ID#386245)
As we approach 00.../the death of Huang531
...we are all going to have to get used to the idea that things will never again be the same. I do not expect Kitco to be up and running in Jan. 2000. But then I do not expect to have any electricity provided by 'the authorities' either. I believe many banks ( ATMs, mortgage records, transfers of $$ etc. ) will be 'temporarily' O.O.O.,as will countless other services we take for granted. That is why I am preparing to do without them.

Even a system that is up and running in normal times suffers from glitches. A good example is my Kitco mate Huang531. It is with great sadness that I must report his passing. He appeared on my computer for an ephemeral moment in time. I enjoyed my discourse with him, even though he was I. Where he came from and whence has he gone, I do not know.
In memory of Huang531:

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:58
huang531 ( Bart ) ID#398101:
I shall cease and desist soon, as the Merkans wake up to this wondrous 'puter world of ours. Cheers from
Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:55
Nick@C>Nick@C>Nick@C>Nick@C>Nick@C>Nick@C..>Nick@C..ick@C>Nick@C>Nick@C ( G'day Huang. ) ID#386245:
How's it Huanging, mate??

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:54
huang531 ( Gonna send the men... ) ID#398101:
...with those white suits ( with long arms that tie behind the back ) for you Nick@C.

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:52
Nick@C ( Ever had a conversation... ) ID#386245:
...with yourself??

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:51
huang531 ( Nick@C... ) ID#398101: realize mate, that those posts of yours are a portent of things to come in Jan.,2000!?! You may just get the
huang of this Y2K stuff yet!!

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:49
Nick@C ( Somebody Huang me... ) ID#386245:

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:48
huang531 ( Huang-on intrepid readers... ) ID#398101:
...while Nick@C goes to get another beer to help figure this out.

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:45
Nick@C ( G'day Huang531 ) ID#386245:
You look just like me.

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:44
huang531 ( G'day Nick@C ) ID#398101:
G'day Huang.
You look just like me.

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:43
Nick@C ( Am I back? ) ID#386245:

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:41
huang531 ( Huang 531... ) ID#398101: really Nick@C.

Don't tell anyone.

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:37
huang531 ( Nick@C=Huang 531 ) ID#398101:
Y2K is already here

Date: Thu Jul 02 1998 05:36
huang531 ( Bart ) ID#398101:
Why has my name just changed to Huang 531???

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:26 - ID#432112)
Earl - Amen.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:26 - ID#412286)
Golden Boy
The things you discuss are realy non economic. However, I think stats show that much anti social behavior and family break up occur because of economic hardship. We are much more pro family as our regulations are more pro employee and pro family as opposed to merely pro profit. In the end I think our policies are really more pro profit too yet those who want the bottom line to improve yesterday I guess no. We value families as the basis for building a strong democratic society. To do this some economic protections and benefits in the work place further this goal. We believe this lessens pressures in the home and thus helps but of course there is no panacea just a system which tends to more limit the damage.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:26 - ID#434108)
John Adams on America & Money
John Adams:
"All the perplexities, confusions and distresses in America,
arise not from defects in the Constitution or confederation,
not from want of honor or virtue,
as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of
coin, credit and circulation."

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:34 - ID#412286)
The new deserving class of beneficiary we want is called CITIZEN not CORPORATION. Robnoel MAI is an undemocratic nightmare I hope you will join me and other leftists in working for its defeat as well as democratizing GATT and opening up the IMF to scrutiny instead of its maintenance of undemocratic secrecy as they take our tax dollars.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:38 - ID#342376)
Info on Anglogold (former symbol AGOLY)
Anglogold Selects The Bank of New York for its Sponsored ADR Program
02:30 p.m Jun 29, 1998 Eastern
NEW YORK, June 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The Bank of New York has been
appointed by Anglogold Limited as the depositary bank for its sponsored
ADR program. Anglogold is based in South Africa and is the world's
largest gold mining company. Anglogold's ADR program now trades
over-the-counter under the symbol ANGDY, having previously traded as an
unsponsored ADR program on NASDAQ. The company intends to list on the
New York Stock Exchange ( NYSE ) in August. Two ( 2 ) ADRs represent one ( 1 )
ordinary share.

Anglogold Ltd. was formed through the merger of eight South African gold
mining companies. This merger created a single, focused, independent,
global gold operating company, which is the world's largest gold mining
company measured both by annual gold production and proven and probable
reserves. Anglogold has a post-merger market capitalization of
approximately $4.8 billion.

The Bank of New York is the world's largest depositary for American and
global depositary receipts, facilities which allow non-U.S. companies to
offer dollar-denominated securities to investors in the United States
and Europe. The Bank currently issues depositary receipts for more than
1,200 programs representing over 60 countries and accounts for nearly
60% of all public sponsored depositary receipt programs.

The Bank of New York was founded in 1784 by Alexander Hamilton and is
the nation's oldest bank operating under its original name. It is the
principal subsidiary of The Bank of New York Company, Inc. ( NYSE: BK ) .
With total assets of $59 billion as of March 31, 1998, the Company
provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to
corporations and individuals worldwide through its six basic businesses:
Securities Servicing and Cash Processing; Corporate Banking; Asset Based
Lending; Trust, Investment Management and Private Banking; Retail
Banking and Financial Market Services. Additional information on the
Company is available at SOURCE The Bank of New York

Copyright 1998, PR Newswire

(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:45 - ID#411112)
ROR....break out the cold ones we can GULP on that.....


(Fri Jul 03 1998 22:48 - ID#28994)
It is quite obvious Sir that you have not had the great and glorious opportunity to say, THAT I ONCE LIVED BEHIND THE IRON CURTAIN.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:07 - ID#412286)
Current political breakdown in America
Corporate/Country Club Republicans: Pro "free trade" and anti union anti tax and anti "big Govt" which regulates their ability to screw the workers and the consumers through its intrusive regulations; More liberal on social issues and generally pro choice.

Corporate/ Academic/ inherited wealth Democrats: Pr "free trade" but maybe a little more liberal on other economic matters. Liberal on social issues generally pro choice.

Christian and truly right wing Republicans: Anti "free trade" ie corporate hegemony but also anti tax and anti regulation. Socially pro family and anti abortion. The Republicans mentioned above bearly tolerate these types but they are ideologcally motivated and cant be dissed.

Blue collar and economic progressive Democrats: Anti "frre trade" and generally progressive on taxation and other ECONOMIC MATTERS. More conservative on social issues and do not emphasize abortion and do not embrace the SOCIAL left.

The NIGHTMARE FOR THE UPPER CRUST ESTABLISHMENT..The last two groups unite against the first two groups.. Then it is all over!

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:08 - ID#287358)
Where are you?

Can anyone provide current figures for Comex silver and gold,
with the breakdown that shows "available?"

Monex reports that 5300 silver July contracts were "delivered" ( I think
that is the word ) in the first two days. Is that to say that 26,500,000
ounces of silver has changed categories? I think this is the same
information that Ted Butler reported. Is this right? If so, why has not
the spot silver price gone bonkers? Are we going to find a surprise
when the markets open on Monday?

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:10 - ID#190411)
ROR, You mustn't dump your positions in gold, now.
Surely, you've had some ups and some downs this week. Looking back on it,though, you licked the bottom.
So, I will exhort you to remain firm in this downturn.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:22 - ID#373403)
Exerpts, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 19, 1998
Reduced growth of foreign economic activity and the lagged effects of the sizable rise that had occurred in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place substantial restraint on the demand for U.S. exports and to add to the pressures on domestic producers to hold down prices to meet import competition.

On balance, forecasts of a limited further drag on U.S. net exports from developments in Asia were subject to substantial uncertainty, with the risks tilted toward a greater effect on the U.S. economy than had been anticipated earlier. Moreover, the lingering effects of the dollar's appreciation last year against a broad array of currencies would continue to depress the nation's foreign trade position for some time.

...the uncertainties in the outlook for economic expansion and inflation remained sufficiently great to warrant a continued wait-and-see policy stance.

Another reason for not taking action at this meeting was the possibility that even a modest tightening action could have outsized effects on the already very sensitive financial markets in Asia. The resulting unsettlement could have substantial adverse repercussions on U.S. financial markets and, over time, on the U.S. economy. Many of the members emphasized, however, that market considerations could not be allowed to jeopardize the effective conduct of a U.S. monetary policy
aimed at an optimal performance of the U.S. economy. Indeed, such a performance would best serve the interests of troubled financial markets and economies abroad.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:23 - ID#284255)
Millennium bug is met with some panic, much indifference

A global perspective???

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:34 - ID#227238)
ROR: Your reasons for concern are certainly laudable. Your intent is something less. A moment ago you were decrying the present "Elites" extant in the present system. Yet from your last post, we find: "....our regulations ....." and "..... we believe ...." . ..... Sounds like you boys have the agenda already planned out and all you really need is the apocalypse to present it to the Boobs for hurried ratification....... Much like the present system of legislation. ..... "View with alarm and point with pride". "Scare the hell out of 'em and booger 'em when they're frightened"......... Doesn't sound very democratic to me. Really smacks of Social Democratic Elitism. ..... but then, I'm just a Boob trying to understand why I should follow you.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:35 - ID#373284)
ARAGORNIII, NAMASTE' as this day of DAYS approaches...Hmmmmmmmm...
all of the little people...each and every one of them shall stand firmly on MY LAWN OF CONTEMPLATION...palms up...wishing you and your's WELL...Piglet and Pooh are out and about...

FROM ME TO YOU...And if God does not BLESS AMERICA me and MINE SHALL...

Just to hear your name the littles are on the are more famous than you know...onto the lawn...they do not tremble...they await your arrival...truly...the AMAZING ARAGORNIII...the littles await...


(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:37 - ID#190411)
404's to ROR
I expect that you will rush headlong into goldshares, just to get a bit of immunity to the v404.

My guess is that forty posters here could take all of the rubbish that you post, and reductio ad ROR turn into ( What? there's not a whit there )

What the hell ROR? I know that you are ashamed of being american, but you talk shit. As I have said before to you, if you are so enamored of the money that I have generated, then , why don't you step up and just take it away from me.

We might be good friends if you were to convince others to volutarily support those who you consider worthy.

You shy from the posters that mention "guns". Yet your gommint will use bigger guns.

Why bother, I'm "off topic", and, you've never been there.

Your powers of persuasion are weak, --better get out the guns.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:39 - ID#227238)
Abortion would be a wonderful thing if it ran to 100% among socialists and all those of the moral uplift. ..... another dream available only in a bowl of laudenum.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:39 - ID#174103)
Alternatives to Republicrats (ROR)
You could check out

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:45 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste' when you do talk to Ron...
make sure you ask about his Dad...Love YOU and YOUR'S...Richard Baseheart and his crew could not begin to LOVE you and YOUR's the way I DO........................

From the Island that IS Long...A Salute to You and Your's....

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:46 - ID#412286)
WHEN IT IS TIME FOR CLASS TO START THE INSTRUCTOR WILL APPEAR. The class is starting to assemble. No elitism just historical determinism and cycles. I think most people have a natural distrust and dislike for Socialism so they are reluctant to give its true democratic version a listen to. All ya hear about is the USSR or Eastern Europe. Sorry folks but they were monopolistic anti-labor elitist societies that were socialistic in name only. Is China similar to Democratic Socialism in Germany I think not. I gont like Fidel but he is moving in the right direction and oppression in Cuba is minimal compared to China. But then with those tourists, beaches and new night clubs not to mention cuba libres what do you expect. I have friends who have vacationed in Cuba and they had a great time at Veradero Beach resorts.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:53 - ID#190411)
ROR fabulous lawyer
Why don't you come to me and talk all of your sweet bs.
My dear, I've only gotten two lawyers fired, and one pastured for a few years.
Perhaps you will sue me on my goldstock buy postings.
It is INDEPENDENCE DAY in one hour.
Buy gold, or take your prosetylising elsewhere.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:54 - ID#43349)
HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $294.75 an ounce on Saturday, up 50 cents from Friday's close of 294.25.

(Fri Jul 03 1998 23:57 - ID#174103)
From an early supporter of the Gold Standard
The essential characteristic of Western civilization that distinguishes it from the arrested and petrified civilizations of the East was and is its concern for freedom from the state. The history of the West, from the age of the Greek polis down to the present-day resistance to socialism, is essentially the history of the fight for liberty against the encroachments of the officeholders. -- Ludwig vonMises