Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:00 - ID#287186)
Retailers will smell death in the salt spray well before it washes ashore
Watch closely the buying for this Christmas and the following spring.
Many of the large retailers have been ordering Christmas merchandise for some time now. The wholesalers already have their orders in or will be receiving most of them shortly. It is too late for most of us to cut back on back-to-school buying. But as we start getting cold feet about Christmas there will be wholesale deflation just to get this stuff through the channels and off the shelves. We will be hitting the panic button well before November.

Buying for next spring & summer will take it in the shorts. Leftover stock will be discounted. When the Christmas scare hits this fall - while the spring lines are being manufactured - deflation will infect the whole distribution chain.

The service jobs will start to go - cashiers, stockers, courtesy clerks - as retail sales plummet and profits plummet even more due to discounting. When folks can't afford to eat out or are scared to spend money doing so then the food service industry will start laying off. So will the winter resorts and other "optional" service employers. Fellow Kitcoites - these service sectors are HUGE employers. Families hereabouts have two adults working three or four jobs in this portion of the service sector.
There is the chance that sales and jobs will hold up somewhat through Christmas - only because of the fire sale and folks buying Christmas gifts now because they figure there won't be a Christmas in 1999. But with the after Christmas clearances and coincident with the 98/99 date rollover the retail sector will be toast. The Washington statisticians will be hard pressed to cook the books when shoppers see empty shelves and deeply discounted merchandise and shuttered stores. I'd like to see them try to sell the line that "consumer confidence is at seasonally adjusted highs."

Prices? Food and other edible and necessary provisions will be going up in price both due to increased demand from hoarders and due to decreased supplies from droughts.

Prices for the rest of the optional items like gifts, crafts, trinkets, CDs and whatnot will sink into the basement and beyond. If you think the computer industry is starting to bleed now - you ain't seen nothing yet. No way are consumers or corporations going to be investing in technology that caused this mess and likely is not Y2K ready regardless of the PR. $2000 for a computer will be spent instead on food, clothing and other necessities by the rational folks and on booze, drugs and one last long fling at a good time by the irrationals.

Next summer might be a great time to take a vacation - no crowds, bargain prices on tourist items and admissions. Gasoline might be expensive but hotel rooms ought to be a steal. Only disadvantage is that some of the tourist traps and shops may be closed. These folks too may be taking their last chance at a vacation.

These vacationers may not voice this out loud, may not even realize their subconscious is thinking of this, but the summer of 2000 will not be a good time to be on the road - not even with a military escort.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:05 - ID#401460)
Clinton Had Several Others?



(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:07 - ID#350194)
Mountain Bear
Date: Mon Jul 06 1998 23:11
Mtn Bear ( SE ) ( Bubbles ( TULIPS ) )
GREAT POST ( To your family and then to your extended family. )
Congratulations and thank-you! You should re-post this about every six weeks until the slide or crash is underway.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:10 - ID#57232)
Gold vs commodities
TexasGoldPost:Thanks for your insight. You sound like an experienced trader. My question to you is that Gold was depressed relative to commodities for a time in the 60's and 70's as well -- and my guess is that the pros then preferred commodities to gold -- as a 'flight to safety', until the gold rally began in earnest. Do you have Donald Hoppe's book, 'How to invest in gold stocks'? He discusses that period of time when gold was depressed relative to commodities and used that as an argument to explain why gold should go up. He was right. My take on all of this is that gold will still rally, despite your excellent point that gold is a 'doomsday' commodity/currency.

Weren't the events that lead up to gold peaking at $850/oz in 1980 a 'doomsday' scenario? It is fear of the unknown that makes gold go up, not necessarily reality itself. Rising interest rates are to a degree a reflection of that fear as well.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:11 - ID#287358)
Aw, shucks,
EJ... I am reminded of my sadness and sense of loss many decades
ago when my childhood best-friend moved away. Please check in
with us, at least to say, "hello." And, who knows?, maybe we will
then be posting something that will make you smile. I appreciate you,
sir. You are *forever* a Kitco Treasure. Namaste'

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:17 - ID#206211)
whydo you think the grains are up tonite? Wet weather?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:21 - ID#350194)
I Knew that! Just tryin' ta have some fun before beddy-bye. If I have to keep listening solely to squirrel's comments at this time of night, I'll go batty and have no golden sweetdreams!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:24 - ID#350194)
Kitcoite Toronto Gathering
Getting closer gang. Mark the calendars. Meeting will take place on either July 30th or July 31st in late afternoon early evening so that we can accomodate as many as possible. Stay tuned for final arrangements. Night All.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:24 - ID#401460)

Both, Drought in the South and Wet fields in the Mid West.

I think there are other weather / crop problems elsewhere in the world .... not sure where. I am going to start watching for news from other countries.

I just think it is something that we should watch. The situation does not seem to be getting any better. CRB will affect Gold.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:25 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-Indonesia NGO says 7 killed in Irian Jaya

JAKARTA, July 7 ( Reuters ) - An Indonesian non-governmental development organisation said on Tuesday it had received unconfirmed reports that seven people had been killed in pro-independence protests in the remote province of Irian Jaya.

The official Antara news agency said 24 people had been wounded and 180 detained by police when troops broke up a protest of around 700 demonstrators who had hoisted flags of the Free Papua separatist movement.

The territory is the site of the world's largest copper mine, operated by Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.

The territory was annexed by Indonesia in 1976 in a move not recognised by the United Nations. Indonesia still faces armed resistance by around 200 guerrillas hiding in East Timor's forests and mountains.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:25 - ID#255151)
Thai Monk Donates 400 Pounds of Gold to Government

Hey, did this dude take a vow of stupidity or what!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:29 - ID#431263)
So sorry to hear you covered your short rand position at @5.70, Diz. It must be painful to have to watch the value of your currency go down the toilet at the rate of 5% per month! I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the RAND will go the way of the Peso, the Baht, the Ringgit and the Won--and sooner rather than later! The end result for SA citizens will be massive inflation of all imported goods, including gold mining equipment. And labor will not sit idly by watching their savings, if they have any, being depleted at the rate of 5%/month without striking for higher wages. It's only a matter of time! Quite frankly, Dizzy, I'm surprised at your unrepentant vitriolic. I could retort in kind, but I AM repentant. My retort will be the daily news reports of new lows in the RAND and the necessary consequences for all those either too old or too stubborn to face the facts!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:32 - ID#255151)

I know what ya mean, mate! A good sense of humour ( eh, Nick? ) is as good as Gold. Come to think of it, the more Gold I have, the more absurd the rest of the world looks. Golden dreams to us all.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:42 - ID#269207)
@Cavender, Tolerant1 & all Nemaste' one and all.....
The tears I weep, when I see you all, we are not ruled by willie and all
we are ruled ( or supposed to be ) by LAW. It is not the law, that is at fault, but those who controvert, conive and consort it, and use they're
official powers to corrupt it, that are at fault.... HELL, they have so far corrupted it, that it takes six years of learning, just to understand the procedures, and then, then, u cannot play unless you join the frat... which should you abuse THEIR RULES, you don' have to worry about the law, because you won't play a tune at their LAW ball.
Our courts are recorded in english, but it is as foriegn a language as any I have ever seen. Jackson, set the Hounds loose, when he did away with the automatic CONSTITUTIONAL review, of all congressional ACTS, before they could/would be implemented into law. And if you think that the review of Congressional acts, brought by the individual, is ever, going to slow much less stop the erosion of our Constitution, by the corrupt and greedy spaniels begging for your vote, you are simply in OZ

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:49 - ID#32078)
golden cheesehead
If your expenses go up 5% per month ( not a given ) and your revenue/income increases at the rate in which the Johannesburg index has changed, about 40% in June, then I'd say your stock value would go up. Lo and behold, the gold stocks of South Africa and US funds concentrated in S. Africa are leading the pack. Are you saying they should be going down?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:49 - ID#401460)

Monday July 6, 6:53 pm Eastern Time

Chile mining ministry to revise 1998 copper price

SANTIAGO, July 6 ( Reuters ) - Chile's mining ministry will revise its estimate for the average price of copper in 1998 in the next few days, the mining minister said on Monday.

``I expect that the price will firm up to a little more than $0.80 ( per lb ) in the next quarter,'' he said, comparing it to current prices.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 00:50 - ID#342376)
Gold up .90

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:02 - ID#284255)
High Rise
I wonder why???
What else are they ordering to?
I read of where the US Gov't has been ordering in
Non computerized cash registers....

Contingency planning...

Dad seems to recall in the great prophecies - Nostradamus
When a major US city will be smashed by a great earthquake.

Nostradamus - The Prohecies by J. Anderson Black
Is an eye-opener.
His prophecies for the millenium are certainly intriguing.

Nuclear attacks from the East.
Paris and New York will feel this wrath.

The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:03 - ID#287186)
But then again it may not be as bad as all that
Maybe I'm off by 12 months.
The Christmas fire sale will be in 1999.
And Summer 2000 will be the year to vacation.
And there won't be any need for military escorts.
But I don't think so.
Because this retailer is sensing this mood now.
Then again maybe he is in his own feedback loop -
called K1.
Sweet Dreams!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:03 - ID#219363)
Near Surface Copper-Gold Zone Found at Taca-Taca
Off the yahoo biz site

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:11 - ID#431263)
Not yet! Wait till the full impact of a plunging rand filters down to the bottom line and inevitably leads to massive inflation, strikes and general social chaos! Remember, mines only make money in dollars when they sell their production forward. As I understand it, many SA mines have already sold a siginificant portion of their 1998 production forward and are now afraid to hedge further while the rand plunges. No hedges, no profits! But will only be revealed in the quarterly reports, if'n you can find 'em. Recent consolidation of SA mines points to fewer and fewer SA mining companies and eventually even these could be consolidated into one huge SA mining company, perhaps under the control of the ANC. Since each mine owns a part of all the others diversification here is at best, questionable, at worst, impossible. Kinda' like Japan, Inc. and we all know what's happened there!

Gandalf the White
(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:16 - ID#433301)
Auric's post of 00:25 Re: Thai Monk
Sir ! You do not know the vows of a Thai Buddist Monk. They are one of poverity and this monk in the poorer North Central area of Udon Thani has done the same as the Korean Government did, and generated 182 Kg. of Thai gold chains and trinkets from the people, as a gift for the King of Thailand. The Monk also accepted cash donations from overseas Thai nationals and gave that to the Thai government.

What more could a patriot do for his country ?

Sawasdee Khun Auric Krup

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:18 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Precious Metals leaves Select Gold ( FSAGX ) in the dust!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:25 - ID#307271)
SA gold stock mergers
Has anyone seen an article concerning Anglo Gold and FSCNY or WDEPY? There seems to have been a merger since I last looked at my charts. Any new symbols?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:27 - ID#252150)
EJ@Good luck in your travels
Texasgoldpost-your 22.49 is about as welcome on this site as fiscal prudence in bureaucracies, but unfortunately very true.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:33 - ID#287186)
Nicodemus - I wish you luck on your return
I hope you don't have to smoke it coming back.

Your visit here led me to think tonight what this place will look like as a ghost town. I many respects we will be lucky if most of the population packs up next year to go home - back to Mexico or back east or back west or just to the lowlands because they don't want to be here during the winter of 1999/2000. It could be like the human cities in the Martian Chronicles after Armageddon on Earth. Most folks returned to the still glowing ashes.

Maybe next summer I'll try to get a loan on a Jeep Wrangler. I could do 4x4 tours of the area. It might be even better than when I had that business 12 years ago. I'll be able to do ghost town tours too!
Price for a four hour tour - HALF OUNCE OF GOLD or 250 pounds of groceries.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:33 - ID#255151)
Gandalf the White

Would have rather seen it go directly to needy individuals. But, it was his Gold to do with as he saw fit. The Thai Government helped to get the Thai people into the mess they are in. Personally, I would bury the Gold rather than give it to a corrupt government. And that especially applies to the US federal government.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:35 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' The truth is stranger than fiction eh...Hmmmmmmm...Your Y2K
links as well as many others are most certainly appreciated here on the Island that you and your Dad and the rest of Clan of fins...a GIANT gulp to you all...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:40 - ID#252150)
Young girl's tee shirt spotted today expresses my boredom with AU mkt
La De Fuc*ing Da

Paul Gold__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:47 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Market Report
The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available on

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:53 - ID#255151)
Gandalf the White

In my rush to jab at government, I forgot my manners! Sawasdee Krup, Gandalf the White. One of my favorite characters of all time. I believe Gandalf had physical possession of Gold. He was one smart wizard.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 01:58 - ID#252127)

I can believe that a dim witted monk gave 400 pounds of gold contributed by his still dummer flock, but I find it difficult to believe that 3.5 million Korean families in a nation of about 45 million, many who toil for the same industries who caused their problems and who many are in constant turmoil with, would give upwards of 220 tonnes of gold.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:01 - ID#284255)
Makes you want to think that 'geeks' are smart - you betcha

Always wondered why they hang out at Kitco???

(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:17 - ID#284255)
And a gulp to you thanks.
From the lost paradise in the the tropics to the man on the island which is long.

Number of calendar days = 545
Number of weekdays = 390
Number of business days = 371
After sick & vacation = 323
Number of weekends = 78

Yes, only 371 business days until the year 2000!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:19 - ID#24997)
Hello to all, I am new.
I have been lurking and enjoying your posts for months now, even since Farfel was telling everyone: I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE. I should say, I was enjoying them until it got too nasty and personal and definitively against the NETIQUETTE GUIDELINES. I was really disappointed by the childish comportment of some of the Kitcoites over the internet...definitively unprofessional...and as someone mentionned it...was a disgrace and he reminded that sometimes his grand children were reading the posts. My wife did and asked me: what kind of garbage are you reading and who are those kids ? I had to explain that sometimes some people get drunk and get carried away but in between the garbage posts I could find some very important and educated posts. It is interesting to note that probably the Farfel and the RJ are probably two real gentleman in the real world. I kind of miss their posts...I meant their good posts, not their fights.
I am not sure what I would bring to this board...I will take more than I will probably give. I am newly retired, and am heavily invested on Gold mining stock...mostly TVX Gold. I spend at least 12 hours everyday on the net and if I find interesting articles I will post them...this will probably my participation to this board.
I find the YAHOO message board for TVX very informative and someone mentioned today that it was as good as Kitco. When Kitco is good it is very good and you could spend hours trying to read all sources of info, it is adictive. TVX's board is good but it only takes minutes to read it.
Here is a message I got from there:

The New York Times reported today that "there is no end in sight" to the deepening Asian financial crisis that began over a year ago with Thailand's currency crash. The paper went on to say, "Today it stands as the largest single threat to the six-year economic boom in the United States..."

Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Primark Decision Systems was quoted as saying, "This is off the radar screens in terms of severity. It is the single most negative economic event since the Great Depression in the United States. But what makes this problem so distinct is that it is not just an economic bust. It is laced with every type of financial crisis and instability that has ever shown up in the real world or any textbook. And while there are some brilliant minds working on it, no one can deal with it--not Rubin [U.S. Treasury Secretary], not Summers[Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary], not any single country, not the IMF[International Monetary Fund]."

The New York Times went on to say that "Washington officials are publicly understating the depth of the problems so that they do not scare the markets."

If you read this line...thank you for reading this post and thank you again to all of you for all your interesting posts. Kitco is great because of you.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:29 - ID#284255)
GoldieHawk - Welcome aboard. - keep those high flying eyes peeled.
Kinda like reminds me of when I first appeared here.

The world is an amazing place - Kitco too...
Specially for us addicts.

Alternative energy info

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:32 - ID#24135)
Dont Cry For Me .. Golden Bean Brain
.. The truth is .. I made a bundle ..

For golden bean head
Save your tears dear boy .. after covering at 5.7.
Immediately plowed into RSA mines which up about 15
20 % in rand terms .. It was BETTER by far that staying
in dollars .. but I doubt if you could figure that
You said that RSA mines dont benefit from the rand
slide UNLESS THEY SELL FORWARD .. that my cheerleading
friend is the single silliest thing I've heard in
months ..
Please Mr cheese brain .. your comments are so
desperate and misguided that I will say no more
.. Suggest you continue to peddle your Lihir .. It's
not that bad .. a bit higher cost than the South
Africans .. with only a small risk of an Indonesian
Rah Rah Cis Boom Bah

(Tue Jul 07 1998 02:42 - ID#373284)
GoldieHawk, Namaste' welcome...a Cuervo gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmm...
Yes, the now famous "GLITCH" in Asia appears to be more than a bump in the road. Interesting bump...Hmmmmmmmmmm...look forward to your posts.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 03:05 - ID#24135)
Let's Regroup
To all ..
Well we have seen a quick move in the South Africans.
The rand slide will have a serious effect on the
earnings.. but we wont SEE this until the 3rd
quarter ( IF the price of gold holds till then ) .
The jse-gold index should rise to at least 1500
( at 6.5 rands ) before Id take profits. A solid gold
price ( 300 ) through year end will take it to 2000 I be
Problem is Im not bullish at all on the gold price
yet. Should the rand RETRACE to say 5.5 ish and I
have profits at 1500 plus on the index .. then Im
outta there and back into Dollars or swiss.
Obviously if there is a gold move up, I would only
consider RSA stock .. I think another look at some
Aussie stocks might be usefull too. Their currency
would have fallen as far as the rand on a retrace to
5.5, and this may not have been reflected in thier
prices .. How are their hedges structured .. I hope
NOT in Aussie dollars but in US $ otherwise they get
no benefit. A great deal of RSA production is UN-hedged.
Some is hedged in dollars .. and a few dopes have
hedged in Rand.
PS .. My genetic connection had forecast an s&P top
at 1180/1200 .. we are getting close.. Put on the sp500
and cash at that stage might look a lot better than
gold mines... That is .. except for the very brave or
say the girlish cheerleader brigade.
Just One man's opinion..

(Tue Jul 07 1998 03:16 - ID#269207)
@and a gulp to La Te
F*cking DA......YEA YEA YEA

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 03:33 - ID#24135)
I love you Cheesehead..
I really do hoo ..

To All
This is marvellous .. with the sad departure of
F-awful, I felt I had lost my great CONTER INDICATOR ..
a guy who is ALWAYS wrong .. Its as good as a guy who is
always Right really. The problem is that the guy will
either go broke ( unless he learns to simply do the
opposite of everything he says and that gets tricky )
or even worse NUTS due to ego damage.
But NOW all is well .. I have Cheesehead .. In response
to his call for a collapse of RSA .. Bonds firmed like
crazy yesterday .. and the rand came back to 6.3..
Thank you cheesehead .. I love you keep up the
good work ..
What many fail to realize .. is that the interest
rate here is 24 % now and the long bond yields 16
percent .. The inflation rate has fallen from 16 %
in 1988 ( under the leadership of the idiot Nats ) to
less than 7 % now . I think it will perhaps rise to
as high as 8 % but that still gives a long bond
yield of 1.16/1.08 of 7.5 % .. We can put in Bozo
the Clown or even Cheesehead Himself as Reserve Bank
Chief and be OK.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 03:46 - ID#24997)
Euro to target Asia

(Tue Jul 07 1998 03:54 - ID#39857)
Farfels in bottles are better than Dutch Ovens.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:02 - ID#284255)

Be careful - the island that is long has its name here.
Nostradamus also mentions the new city - NY.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:06 - ID#39857)
John Disney. I respect your judgement, however
LIHIR is the only big gold play around. Check their figures out.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:07 - ID#284255)
'Tis a great dream$m8i$>$m8i$
Well, Americans charge every minute $195,586 to their
Citibank credit cards, just doing what they know best;
buy now, pay later!

This is only $281 million each day, or,
just under 1 million ounces of gold,
( 956,000 to be exact with gold at $294 ) .

Now let us add the other dozen or so credit cards,
( VISA, MasterCard, American Express, GM card, GE card, etc )
and we get over $1 billion charged each day!

What will happen if all of a sudden they decided to
charge 5% of all their credit card spending into gold

Well, they will want 62 million ounces of gold each year,
needless to say "it ain't there", they will have to go
without it - unless of course they are willing to dig
for it.... or pay the freight!

And Americans are only 4% of the earth's population...
What a party will be if the other 96% joins the party...
Millenium matters...
Embedded Systems and the Year 2000 Problem
Shakespeare and Tao Consulting

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:16 - ID#252391)
John Disney
Appreciate your perspectiveon the So. Africas. So 1500-2000 on the JSE All Golds by year's end given a stable gold price. Middle of that range represents a 50% increase. What's your target for Harmony. Based on your numbers and my thoughts on the company's relative strenth I'd say $8 1/2 per share 55.5 Rand.

Before reading your post I was think more like $10-12. A little increase in the gold price and some enthusiasm for precious metal stocks might be needed to hit those number, right.?

Would appreciate your thoughts.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:18 - ID#432148)
Internet stocks ie Yahoo et al

Can anyone here give me a justification for the values given these stocks? Note, the above article headline calls what is happening a Frenzy ;- ) And I am not suggesting shorting them!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:37 - ID#248170)
Gandalf the White & Auric. Re: Thai monk
Gandalf the White I think your appraisal is accurate. I would like to offer another comment on the merits of what this intelligent man did. Let's assume that in the near future the paper money fire gets so hot that gold becomes money or at least better money. The Thai Government will never forget this monk. He will be famous !

(Tue Jul 07 1998 04:54 - ID#24997)
Euro coins head for meltdown
Nice picture of the coins....they look almost like GOLD...Too bad they aren't !

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:18 - ID#24997)
Sound like Y2K on the opening day of H.K. new airport !

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:35 - ID#284255)
Would it not be worth dollar averaging into puts etc., on these obese stocks?
The few days from the top that one would wish to purchase put positions.
One would find that they are so overpriced.
The put position prices at the moment are cheap because optimism is so high.
When negativity enters the arena these prices will be exhorbidant.
Puts on many OZ stocks are expensive at the moment.
They are starting to price in the fear.

I like the thought of buying a few at a time.
Sort of like dollar averaging into gold.

It helps to think like Nick@C at times.
Turn the chart upside down and think whether you're buying close to the bottom.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:38 - ID#24997)
Sex, Gold and Death: a sure-fire hit
Good night...sweet dreams of gold...or good day.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:44 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' great to see the light of dawn and that Island that is Long is
going to I have that going for me too...Hmmmmmmmmm...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:54 - ID#373284)
and this ain't making my morning better either...more on Emperor Klinton...he
should be taken to task for the below items, and many, and I mean many more and threatening the lives of Americans on Y2K...his campaign slogan to all takers..."SHOW ME THE MONEY" Sheesh...this then is America's leader...take a good look people...a real good look...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 05:59 - ID#284255)
Please excuse me.
I feel embarassed to draw you concern.
But I feel for many citizens
Who will feel the byte.

I for one would not be an inhabitant of your great cities.

Now safe secure within the pleasant land
That with great labour I have built for me
Safe from the perils of that other place,
Where Wars brutality so scars the human face.

Where tears and terrors are of no avail
Where I have builded me a faith to be
A shield against the Horror and travail
The sad defeats, the crimes, against our dark humanity.

Such shield each creature for himself must build
To hold the mind secure against the foe,
To steel the heart what terrors to endure
And guard the soul against the cruel deceits
The cup of woe.

Cold is the wind that blows from off that dreary shore
Bitter the fogs that dull the eyes bright fire
Be strong my heart to bear the cold and hoar
And strong the love to keep the faith
To hold the hearts desire.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:04 - ID#210235)
@Follow the dots and
find the IMF in this picture.

Clashes in Yemen Kill 11 People

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:06 - ID#284255)
the heart of the problem..
The heart of the network- the switch - is 100% 'digitally
computer-controlled', and will fail if not upgraded to a Y2k compliant
software release ( see Nortel, Siemens, Ericsson, et al ) . Your telco
provider isn't working on this problem because it is the vendor's
responsibility. Software changes on the switch are not done in-house.

The reason for 'doomsday gloom' is because of the number of different
failure scenarios - all with a non-zero probability - which could lead
to disasterous problems.

For example: A major power outage could occur if multiple plants went
off the grid unexpectedly. The last report I read indicated that no
unremediated power plant would be operational after 1-1-2000. OK, so we
concentrate on making the plants compliant. But the nukes must have
reliable telecommunications and data networks - even 911 access- or else
they would be shut-down per current safety regs. So now we have to be
sure telecommunications stays up and running. But the coal burning
plants can only keep 7-10 days of coal on-hand; they are completely
dependent on the railroads operating ( to those of you who say truck it
in: I see eighty train cars of coal going through here every week for a
small plant south of me. Find me enough trucks for all the coal burning
power plants ) . So now we have to make sure the railways are compliant.

As with power, the telcos have dependencies, the railroads have
dependencies, and those dependencies have dependencies. We have a
tangled, interlocking mess, and hundreds of multiple random failures
seem unavoidable. How many more failures will those failures cause?

Banking gets high marks for their remediation efforts and, in the US,
could be ready in time. But all reports indicate that nothing is being
done in most of the world. Even if they keep their systems up and
running globally, will their investments throughout the world bring them
down? They could weather a problem in Korea or Indochina. perhaps even
the entire SE Asian market. But can the survive simultaneous severe
economic recession worldwide?

Finally, according to the GAO, large segments of the US federal
government is subject to failure. We have become as dependent on the
government as we have computers.

It gets down to faith - do you believe we have a robust
infrastructure/society, or have our interdependencies made our
civilization fragile? Arguments can be made for either side, so we
continue to debate.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:11 - ID#284255)
Throw them all in the same pot.
BC, Camadeus, IMF etc.

Politically correct criminals.
With the rights to do as they please.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:13 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmm, sharefin, great writing, as usual, and I got thick skin, but................
the Island that is Long is now sinking...Emperor Klinton's wallet is being filled by the minute...alright...its after six...a Cuervo gulp to ya...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:27 - ID#373284)
and everything is just getting better...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:35 - ID#26793)
Russian minister seeks to allay fears Russia will go bankrupt.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:38 - ID#284255)
Not mine.
I'm a certified plagarist.
Apparently of note. ( :-^ )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Indonesian separatist protesters now in the thousands; troops attempt to disperse

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:42 - ID#373284)
In case any of you missed this page in one of my posts it is excellent, RE-Y2K

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
Steps to make the yen an international currency are now official.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:44 - ID#26793)
Russian markets plummet this morning. T-Bills at 120%

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:46 - ID#26793)
Pakistan may be forced to place a moratorium on $30 billion in debt.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:48 - ID#373284)
Donald, Namaste' this line below from the Pakistan news is
``If we don't get enough loans to pay back the money and private loans dry up, how do we pay?'' he asked.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:48 - ID#29048)
WSJ-Interactive article
July 7, 1998

"Getting Going" by Jonathan Clements

Gold Poor for the Long Term, But Still Shines in Rough Times

Gold is a lousy long-term investment that could make a great addition to your portfolio. If you're puzzled by that, you aren't alone. Like many investors, I have never been convinced of the need to buy gold-company stocks, invest in precious-metals mutual funds or purchase gold coins. But with gold languishing around $300 an ounce, it seems as if the yellow metal deserves a second look. Not that the lowly price is the reason to buy gold. It just makes the whole proposition more intriguing. Instead, the main argument for owning gold is a diversification argument. If you are a long-term investor, stocks are your portfolio's engine of growth. But most investors don't want growth alone. They are also interested in easing the anxiety associated with investing and, if they are retired, tapping their portfolio for income. That is why stock investors buy other stuff, like bonds, money-market funds and gold. These other investments will reduce a stock portfolio's risk level. But this risk reduction comes at a price. After all,over the long haul, none of these other investments is likely to keep up with stocks. Historically, shares have outpaced inflation by between six and seven percentage points a year. By contrast, bonds might return three percentage points a year above inflation, a money-market fund could yield two percentage points more, and gold prices should roughly match the rise in consumer prices. Among the array of possible diversifiers for a stock portfolio, I am most drawn to inflation-indexed bonds and cash investments such as money-market funds and Treasury bills. These securities provide a ready source of cash in an emergency, while also offering good bear-market protection.

In a stock-market crash, cash investments shouldn't fall in value and inflation-indexed bonds shouldn't decline much. They could do quite well. Both investments give you a good defense against inflation, which is one of the biggest threats for stock-market investors. But while cash and inflation-indexed bonds ought to perform reasonably well in a rough stock market, gold has the potential to post spectacular results.

At times of political crisis or accelerating inflation, gold bullion can show huge gains, helping to offset your stock-market losses. Gold-company stocks, and the funds that own them, can fare even better, as soaring gold prices turn marginally profitable gold mines into big money makers.

"If you think about the sort of thing that drives gold higher -- inflation, economic chaos, social unrest, war -- then people should put 5% of their portfolio in gold and hope the price goes down," says Gerald Perritt, editor of Mutual Fund Letter, a Largo, Fla., newsletter.

Mr. Perritt continues: "The loss you take on gold is like the premium you pay on an insurance policy. You don't really want to collect on your policy. But it's there just in case." The problem is, unlike cash investments or inflation-indexed bonds, gold doesn't provide reliable portfolio protection. For proof, you need look no further than the stock-market decline in May and June, when gold funds ranked as one of the worst-performing mutual-fund categories.

"We haven't had any inflation, so there's nothing to excite gold investors," says Roger Ibbotson, a finance professor at Yale University's School of Management and chairman of Ibbotson Associates, a Chicago research firm. "We have had political uncertainty in Asia, but not enough to affect the gold market." But the real value of gold lies less in its actual performance than in the comfort it provides to investors. If you keep some of your money in gold, does that make you more willing to buy stocks? Suppose you have half your money in stocks and half in bonds. If the comfort that comes with a 5% gold position gives you the courage to bolster your stock holdings to 65%, with the remaining 30% in bonds, you should end up with higher long-run returns.

Of course, this only works if holding gold makes you more aggressive with the rest of your portfolio. That's why I don't own gold. I don't find it comforting. Gold's performance is just too fickle for my taste. But maybe it provides the sort of risk reduction you are looking for. If that is the case, a small stake in gold could make a lot of sense.

Mr. Perritt favors two no-load gold funds, American Century Global Gold Fund and Vanguard Specialized Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio. Whatever happens to gold, neither fund is likely to cost you a lot in taxes. "It's a good idea to use two of them," Mr. Perritt explains. "If they continue to slide, you can sell one, buy the other and take the tax loss." Meanwhile, should gold take off, the funds could go years without
making large capital-gains distributions, thanks to their unrealized losses and tax-loss carry-forwards.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Lehman Bros. Japan fails to deliver Japanese bonds when due.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:52 - ID#26793)
Remember those old Laurel and Hardy movies? "Well, Ollie, this is a fine mess you've gotten us into"

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:57 - ID#373284)

(Tue Jul 07 1998 06:58 - ID#26793)
Malaysia says it is having trouble establishing exchange rate stability.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:05 - ID#284255)
CBN is having 2-one hr News Specials on y2k crisis: July 10th August 7th
Do you know that there are 450,000,000 PCs being used in the world today and over 90% is expected not to function properly after 00:00:01am 1st Jan 2000?!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:08 - ID#373284)
here is a poorly written article on Y2K...politics, and, and, aw'll see

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:38 - ID#43185)
dog days of summer
The halls of the Kitco discussion group are virtually empty with only occasional footsteps down some dimly lit corridor. The stock market halheartedly discounts the asian crises and looks for any hard to find reason to rise. Gold has settled into a narrow range whose only ripples are brought by lacluster meanderings of the yen/dollar. Silver shows a little life but only hints at future actions.

Can the difficulties in Japan have been resolved? I doubt it. We have yet to hear of the full magnitude of things not yet heard, but for now the market sleeps with restless turning and tossing.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:38 - ID#248180)
STAGFLATION ? Where in the F* have I heard that word before

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:50 - ID#411331)
@ALL: re GOLD LEASE RATES: one month gold lease rates fell back
to 1.26% from 1.31% last week, with forward rates @ 4.40%.

One year lease rates have declined to 2.01% from 2.06% on July 3,
with forward rates up to 3.80%.

The one month lease rate and forward rate spread shows a slight easing
of borrowing activity, probably indicating a slight easing in the
activities of short selling in gold.

The one year lease rate has eased down, but not as fast as
interest rates, as the forward rate is now 3.80%. The gold
carry trade is now slightly more profitable on a one year

Gold prices are range bound at 293-296, and under gold carry
conditions as outlined, will tend to weaken. Unless there is
a left field event, the POG is firmly under the thumb of the
Central Banks.

I have been up to Muskoka for a few days sitting around a
lake listening to the loons. It is nice to know that not
much has changed. July is usually an up month for the POG
but not this summer. Cheapening lease rates will short
sell the beast back to the neolithic. This will probably
destroy the US gold mining industry, as this region can't
hide behind a collapsing currency.

Because of the depressed price of gold, virtually every person
on this planet, should be buying
either physical gold or gold shares to protect themselves from
the effects of currency declines, but don't buy American gold
shares IMHO.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 07:58 - ID#248180)
ECB - Strategy in Sept.99 Euro$$$$
ECB council to anounce strategy in Sept
Date: 07 Jul 1998 10:44:12
Service: AFX

PARIS ( AFX ) - The European Central Bank council will announce in
September its strategy for maintaining price stablility among
euro-using countries, president Wim Duisenberg told Le Figaro daily.
He said the council's basic choice is between controlling money
supply -- as in Germany and France -- or controlling inflation, as is done in the UK.
The council is also discussing the level of capital reserves to be
demanded from national banks.
"It's an important question and we have to make a decision as soon
as possible as banks need to know the rules of the game well in
advance," said Duisenberg.
So far no decision has been made as to whether EU countries not
currently using the euro will be allowed access to the Target euro
settlement system.
"One could argue that it's not possible ( for these countries ) to be
both inside and outside ( of the euro ) ," he said.
The UK, Denmark and Sweden are excluded from the first wave of
euro users but hope to use Target.
Duisenberg said the euro will reduce the risk of "monetary shock"
by reducing the level of exports relative to GDP across Europe.
"The level of exports against GDP will fall by about 10 pct, in
line with the situation in the U.S. and Japan. There will, therefore, be
fewer worries about the euro's exchange rate," he said.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:02 - ID#29048)
Oil and Gas, Gold Mining Sectors Cited as `Extremely Attractive'

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:09 - ID#248180)
EURO $$$ - FT London

Columnists 

CURRENCIES: Euro's world test
If the euro is to be a reserve currency, Europe will have to provide assets to the world, as the US does. Is Europe ready?
Is the euro going to be a serious rival to the dollar? French policymakers hope it will; most Americans assume it will not. Larry Summers, deputy secretary to the US Treasury, is not alone in arguing that "the dollar will remain the primary reserve currency for the foreseeable future".

Robert Mundell of Columbia University, father of the theory of optimal currency areas, thinks US complacency is mistaken. For him, the introduction of the euro is at least the most significant international monetary development since the dollar replaced the pound as the dominant international currency during the first world war. Arguably, it "is the most important event since . . . the rise of the gold standard in the 1870s".*

Consider three questions.

Could the euro become a global currency?

What will determine whether it does?

What impact might its emergence have on the world economy?

For a currency to achieve widespread use as an international means of exchange and store of value it must be liquid and safe. Liquidity is created by the breadth and depth of markets in which it is used. Safety depends on its monetary soundness and underlying political stability. The latter is particularly important for paper money, which tends to lose all value if the issuing state collapses.

The gross domestic product of the initial 11-member euro-zone is only 80 per cent of US GDP. But the addition of the UK and the other three outsiders ( Denmark, Greece and Sweden ) would make the area as big as the US ( see table ) . As for monetary stability, that is certainly what the European Central Bank will try to deliver.

The big doubt is political. The authority issuing the euro is far more likely to disappear than the US government. Outsiders might well need time or evidence of further integration before putting their faith in the euro - though the fact that Italian bond yields are already lower than those of the US suggests they may not need that much time.

The euro, in short, has the potential to become a world currency. What would it take for that to happen? An answer is provided by Richard Portes, director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and Hlne Rey of the London School of Economics.** They start from the assumption that the euro will be deemed a sound currency. It will then be used as a store of value if it is widely used; and it will be widely used if it is cheap enough to do so. But volume begets low cost, which begets increased volume, which begets yet lower costs.

Because US financial markets are so liquid it is cheaper to use the dollar as a vehicle currency than trade other currencies directly. This, argues Prof Portes and Ms Rey, could change if transaction volumes were big enough in euro-denominated markets. The emergence of the euro is bound to make all European markets more liquid. The question is how much more.

At present, the bid-ask spreads in the German and French bond markets are 4 basis points, while those in the US are only 1.6. The analysis shows that the mere fusion of the European markets will be insufficient to reduce transaction costs below US levels. For that to happen there must be further changes. One would be the inclusion of the UK within the euro-zone; another would be institutional changes within European financial markets.

Prof Portes and Ms Rey demonstrate that the emergence of the euro could reduce the dollar's role, which is out of proportion to the size of the US economy and trade. But the shift depends on the credibility of the new currency and the efficiency of euro financial markets. My own guess is that Mr Summers is right: the euro is not a sufficiently good competitor to rival the incumbent in the near future. But the odds against its doing so are not overwhelming.

So it makes sense to ask what impact the euro would have if it became an international currency. It is likely to have a big impact.

Hitherto, the US has financed its current account deficit in assets denominated in its own currency. The former French president Charles De Gaulle described this as the ability "to be indebted to foreign countries free of charge". The implications are explained by Prof Mundell: over the past 15 years the cumulative US current account deficit has been some $1,700bn. This has been financed by around $1,000bn in net capital inflows, plus foreign accumulation of dollar reserves of $700bn.

Suppose the euro were to rival the dollar. Prof Mundell assumes that, between now and 2006, global reserves of foreign exchange would increase from $1,500bn to $3,000bn in line with the growth of world trade and the increased desire to hold reserves in a world of exchange-rate instability. He assumes also that the dollar share will have fallen from two-thirds of total reserves to 40 per cent, while the European share will have risen from a fifth to 40 per cent. On those assumptions, the total increase in official holdings of the dollar will be a mere $200bn over the next eight years. The increase in holdings of euros will be $900bn.

If anything like this were to happen, the outcome could be devastating, particularly in light of the Asian crisis. This, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, will raise the US current account deficit to $249bn by 1999, while the EU-11 surplus is forecast at $152bn.

If the rest of the world wanted to shift from the dollar to the euro when the US was running a big external deficit and the EU an almost equally big surplus, there would be a gigantic euro appreciation. Prof Portes and Ms Rey consider a shift of $700bn in private and official holdings from dollar-denominated to euro-denominated assets and suggest the euro could appreciate 40 per cent.

The underlying reality is the EU would have to shift from a a big current account surplus to a big deficit in order to accommodate the world's desire to hold euro-denominated assets. This would create big difficulties for management of monetary policy in Europe, which will be problematic enough as it is. Meanwhile, the US would be faced with a choice between a dollar plunge or higher interest rates.

Whether or not the birth of the euro is the most important change in the world monetary system for 129 years is an open question. But the impact could be particularly dramatic at a time of global financial and economic turmoil.

At the moment, the US is the global importer of last resort in dealing with the Asian crisis. If there were a widespread desire to shift into the euro, the US would find it more difficult to finance its expanding current account deficit. To offset this, the EU would have to accept a big swing into deficit. If it failed to do so, the world could move into slump. The euro would then be an unmanageable monetary shock, at a time when the world is grappling with the one emanating from Asia.

*Robert A Mundell, The International Impact of the Euro and its Implications for the Transition Countries, mimeo, paper presented at the Fourth Dubrovnik Conference on Transitional Economies, June 22-24 1998

**Richard Portes and Hlne Rey, The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency, in David Begg et al ( eds ) , Emu: Prospects and Challenges for the Euro ( Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1998 )

Contact Martin Wolf:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:10 - ID#350194)
@rhody and All S.Ontario Kitcoites and those in the upper States nearby!
Since Reify ( from Israel ) is dropping into Toronto at the end of July some of us are planning on greeting him and having a meeting of local Kitcoites for a 2-3 hour get-together at a restaurant in downtown Toronto. This will take place in late afternoon on July 30 or 31. All interested can e-mail me for final arrangements.
- rhody your 7:50 makes sense and it certainly agrees with the action we are witnessing lately. Coming to the party?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:13 - ID#427357)
Y2K Panic Building - Part II

"Time is running out ~ as Y2K will NOT be completed
on time ~ Public Awareness must be brought to
Avoid Food & Water Rationing and MARTIAL LAW."

So says Chris Osborne.

Since his April expose of the looming problem there have been an explosion of Y2K commentary on the Internet, however , "there has been no political attempt to enlighten the public at large."

Joe Q. Public is still as unaware as ever - "Y2K ohh, ahh, err, oh yeah, the computer nonsense."

Despite the general public's ignorance of Y2K possible dire consequences one can feel the growing tenseness of better informed circles.

A particularly disturbing note is the fact that many bankers are flat-out lying about compliance when asked by a depositor. If you doubt this, then ask your own banker. But do it in person, so you may see him squirm when you drop the question on him. When pressed for his answer, the banker will confess, "NO, we are not yet compliant, BUT WE ARE WORKING ON IT."

Y2K expert Chris Osborne cites numerous ramifications of the looming problem - and what precautions a prudent person might take. It's tantamount to preparing for a tornado, hurricane, earthquake, massive floods or any freak natural disaster which can devastate the harmony of our lives.

His message is to be heeded. Read full report at following URL. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before pasting to your Internet finder:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:27 - ID#284255)
Something like Haiku?
Debts climb higher, but
Tomorrow we count again
Who knows the answer..

Gold slumbers along
Precious metals are debased
Who sees the future...

Asian gloom simmers
US stocks orbit the moon
Who sees the crash...

Y2k Clinton's friend
FEMA stocking up for riots
What of tomorrow...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:33 - ID#350194)
Y2K, Daily 'Gloom and Doom" news articles from around the world, prognostications of future disaster ala sharefin etc. Is it no wonder, my friends, that people simply want to close their minds to it all and listen and believe the refrains of 'Blue Sky'?
"Happy trails to you" - Roy Rogers 1911-1998 "King of the Cowboys"

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:38 - ID#28594)
Global video conference on Euro--

The euro as an international reserve currency
Jacques Santer ( President, The European Commission, Brussels )

Central banks of non-EU countries are expected to continue the gradual diversification of their reserve holdings which has been underway for some decades: between 1973 and 1994, the share of the dollar in official reserves has declined from 76% to 63%.

This phenomenon will probably accelerate in those countries which have close trade ties with the euro zone, and which may choose to use the euro as an anchor. But also in the rest of the world, the role of the euro will probably grow, reflecting the internationalisation of the euro.
Another issue concerns the reserve holdings of the European Central Bank itself.

Currently, the central banks of the European Union hold SIX TIMES MORE RESERVES THAN THE US, and twice more than Japan.>

Yoh Kurosawa
( Chairman, The Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd, Tokyo )

On the other hand, the arrival of the euro will have a major impact on the future of the international monetary system. Currently, the position of the US dollar as a key currency is on an eroding trend: the US
currency, whose GDP world share is a mere 25%, accounts for over 50% of the global reserve currencies ( compared with 14% for the DM and 7% for the Japanese yen ) . This is the fundamental cause of the instability of the present monetary system, with the dollar functioning as a key currency. Nor should we overlook the fact that the US is the world's largest debtor nation.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:40 - ID#39862)

Gold in Saudi Arabia

There is an Archaean Shield in western Saudi. This will be no different from other Archaean Shields in the world, and will/is prospective for gold mineralisation.

The "greenstone belts" contained within the Archaean Shield are, like gold, relatively rare when compared with the total land mass.

GOLD.....the currency of "LAST" resort.............

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:54 - ID#426220)
Market View - 3rd Quarter 1998 by Crimi

Wall Street analyst Wayne Crimi continues to forecast the coming of the bear. Furthermore, he provides ample supporting arguments for his view.

"stocks are much more expensive than they look based on current
PE ratios and free cash flow levels."

"There simply are very few businesses that possess the kind of advantages that are usually necessary to sustain above average returns over the long haul. In the mean
time, stocks are very expensive even discounting this favorable state of affairs."

"Aggregate U.S. business is selling at 2-3 times its
average selling price depending on the criteria used. It is also
selling at over twice the replacement cost of its assets according
to a recent study I saw. I believe there is virtually NO MARGIN OF
SAFTEY in almost all stocks purchased at these levels!"

Wall Street Analyst provided a table containing 30 economic and financial parameters, which underscore the markets over-value. The table data covers a 10-year period from 1988 to 1997. A wealth of pertinent financial reference data.

Even the Fed thinks the stock market is over-priced: "According to the Federal Reserve's model, stocks were 20.2% overvalued as of June 30, 1998.

Mr. Crimi's full report at following URL. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before pasting to your Internet finder:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:59 - ID#224363)
Any idea as to what...
caused the snap crackle and pop in PM prices this AM ?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 08:59 - ID#28594)
Walking the circle...
( 2 ) Causes of Currency Depreciation
The root cause of the exchange rate depreciation was the unexpected steep appreciation of the US dollar. The East Asian deficit economies could not keep up with the steep rising exchange rates, and with free capital mobility, the external values of their currencies have thus been given a very thorough beating. The first serious speculative attack was on the Thai baht. The then Thai Government defended the original peg with some US 23 billion dollars in the forward market. The Thai baht fell all the same. Of note is that subsequent IMF rescue package of US$17.2 billion is in fact less than the amount of foreign exchange loss in the initial defence of the Thai baht.

The Chinese renminbi, however, has remained strong, partly because of current account surplus, huge foreign exchange reserves, AND VERY IMPORTANTLY, THE EXISTENCE OF CONTROL OVER CAPITAL ACCOUNT. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea, though having current account deficits, have also no control over capital outflow. THEY BELIEVE IN FREE CONVERTIBILITY OF CAPITAL, AS IS ADVOCATED BY THE IMF, THE WORLD BANK, THE WTO AND THE ALMOST OMNIPOTENT WESTERN MASS MEDIA AND RATING AGENCIES.

It must be remembered that to them, the US is running a trade deficit of more than US$200 billion per year and owes the rest of the world more than US$1000 billion. Money, however, is a matter of confidence.
The Solution to the Asian Currency Crisis
Professor Lim Chong-Yah

Haggis@Knowledge Thank you very much.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:00 - ID#386245)
That's "Well, Stanley, this is a fine mess you've gotten us into."

Later in life, when Stan was very ill, Ollie went over to visit him and said "Well Stan, this is a fine mess you've gotten yourself into."

Anyone who looked Stan's address up in the phone book could have gone and visited him in his old age. He made no attempt to hide from fans. A few movie buffs did and got the interview of a lifetime.

Laurel and Hardy were, and shall always remain 'pure gold'. cheers, N.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:10 - ID#43185)
The yen/dollar is down. There is a growing sense of optimism that the Japanese financial crises are going to be resolved one way or another. This brings the markets up, the yen down, and a rise in the precious metals since they are tied to the yen/dollar as of late. We quite likely will see something of a summer rally.

I feel the optimism may be somewhat misplaced since we ( the US ) have yet to feel the full brunt of Asia's recession ( depression? ) .

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:17 - ID#266105)
@eye on the birdie

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:21 - ID#43185)
Once we were afraid
of demons seen far ahead
and now forgotten

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:27 - ID#28594)
A rose is a rose is a rose is a rose...
The Jamaica Accords, demonetizing gold, state that "no country can PUBLICALLY link its currency to gold." What they do privately is another matter

European nations running a deficit will be fined. A substantial portion of the fine must be paid in GOLD. "non-interest bearing deposits of a fixed component"

"In the event that sanctions are implemented, the stability pact calls first for countries to contribute non-interest bearing deposits of a fixed component, not to exceed 0.2 percent of GDP, and a variable component equal to 0.1 times the excess of the government deficit as a percent of GDP over 3 percent. The overall sanction amount cannot exceed 0.5 percent of GDP. There is still a difference of opinion concerning how this ceiling should be applied. Germany, the Netherlands, and the European Commission want the fines to be applied cumulatively, while most other member states want 0.5 percent of GDP to represent an "absolute ceiling," even for a deficit which persists for a number of years."

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:29 - ID#335190)
Russian Gazprom starts cutting supply to heartland

YEKATERINBURG, Russia, July 7 ( Reuters ) - Hundreds of factories in Russia's industrial heartland faced breaks in energy supply on Tuesday as natural gas monopoly Gazprom started cutting off debtors.

Regional gas companies affiliated with Gazprom said they had to cut supplies given financial restraints in the wake of federal government orders to pay tax arrears.

He said that 170 companies in the Sverdlovsk region in the Urals had been completely or partly cut off. Sixty of those were financed by the federal government.

Russia, IMF, World Bank say have understanding

MOSCOW, July 7 ( Reuters ) - Russia, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have reached a broad understanding of the major conditions necessary for a new aid package to Russia, negotiators said after talks on Tuesday.

"All the major issues have been identified and broad agreement has been reached on what needs to be done," IMF Moscow representative Martin Gilman told reporters after talks with Kremlin debt negotiator Anatoly Chubais and with the World Bank.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:33 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-Thailand looks to fiscal measures and IMF

BANGKOK, July 7 ( Reuters ) - Thailand said on Tuesday a cautious easing of monetary policy and a more relaxed fiscal stance should put its battered economy on the road to recovery by the fourth quarter of this year.

The IMF has arranged a $17.2 billion bailout package for Thailand, which is linked to the implementation of a series of strict economic reforms.

Thailand has already drawn more than $10 billion from the bailout package.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:41 - ID#24135)
I did like you said
Mr hedgehog ..
I checked Lihirs numbers ..
Lihir baffles me .. It looks like a good operation.
one of the 15 biggest in the world .. but it is badly
diluted .. 900,000,000 shares .. lots and lots of paper.
The mining Journal list Lihir with 41.8 mill oz of
resources .. with proven and probable at 14.8 million.
the production target is 625,000 oz.
It is not Cheap .. $146 mill was spemt on exploration
and a whopping 803 $mill on the project.. Allocated to
reserves that makes $67/oz before we start mining.
Compared to Harmony .. harmony has come from 20 mill
oz resource to 70 mill. With the addition of Evander
they will rise to 100 mill oz and about 1 mill oz
year production. That's a lot bigger than Lihir.
2.5 times more resources and 50 % more production. The
costs of both will be around the same level.
BUT there are only 50 mill shares of harmony .. vs
900 mill for Lihir. so I suggest you take that number
and figure out how much gold you think you are buying
with a share of Lihir and how much with a share of
I dont think lihir is BIG .. I think its rather

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:44 - ID#401237)
Check This Out!

How many 3 Month Charts have you seen with a vertical scale devided in 50 pt. increments?


John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:45 - ID#24135)
harmony target
jims ..

the 15 year high for harmony was 56 rand .. the last
high was 53. Options come in at 60 rand through 2002.
Because of this I think we have a lot of trouble
getting through $8.5 - 9.5.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:49 - ID#401237)
Better get on board!

YHOO 206 3/8 +7 1/8 Off The Chart!
May split 4:1
A sign of a top?

Gold 295.10
A sign of another bottom?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:50 - ID#269207)
@Toerant1 ......I tell ya they are playin our song
Don Rock the Boat, Don' Rock the Boat, Babyyyyyyyyy

(Tue Jul 07 1998 09:59 - ID#426220)

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where

ever you like.

It's necessary to delete extra letters "en" before pasting to the Internet:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:02 - ID#344236)
At meeting today with Oz Taxation Office I was informed that the Y2K problem did not apply to them as they had Macs!

Cage Rattler
(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:02 - ID#33184)
Motorola may report first loss in 13 years

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Motorola Inc. is expected to report its first quarterly operating loss in 13 years Tuesday, according to analysts, as the Asian economic crisis continues to erode profits, especially in its semiconductor business.

Wall Street analysts' consensus estimate for Motorola's second-quarter is a loss of 4 cents a share, excluding a $1.95 billion charge for previously announced layoffs and consolidation plans, according to First Call Inc., which tracks corporate earnings estimates.

The company is due to report its results Tuesday, after the stock market closes. A spokesman declined to comment on the estimates, citing company policy.

Motorola, a bellwether of Asian economic vitality and typically the first to kick off the quarterly earnings season, will provide analysts another look at just how deep the effects of the Asian turmoil run.

It warned last month it could post an overall operating loss, and said that the operating loss in its chip sector would be "significant" due to weakening demand and pricing pressures from Asia.

"Motorola is always the first to talk about Asia," Aydin Tuncer, an analyst with S&P Equity Group, said. "People will look at the ( earnings conference ) call very carefully."

Estimates were cut following the announcement, and have trended downward recently as other semiconductor companies warned results would not meet expectations, said A.G. Edwards analyst Chris Chaney, who has counted some 17 recent earnings warnings by semiconductor companies.

Trade sources now expect global semiconductor revenues to shrink for the year due to the trouble in Asia -- compared with initial estimates of growth as high as 17 percent.

"All of these pre-announcements from other companies have indicated that ( semiconductor ) pricing and unit sales have been really bad," Chaney said.

The crisis in Asia has also hit Motorola's paging business by dampening consumer confidence, while paging service operators in the United States continue to struggle to control inventories, analysts said.

Looking ahead, analysts said they will watch for developments in Motorola's digital wireless phone business as they await the release of long-awaited new phones.

"We'll look for more information about the cellular business and new products because that's the driver for the company," said Mona Eraiba, an analyst for Gruntal & Co. "Semiconductors are in trouble -- it's a global problem."

Analysts agree a key move for Motorola is to deliver digital wireless phones in its popular StarTAC model, which can be used, for example, in key U.S. digital wireless phone networks.

Motorola is expected to make a digital phone product announcement this month.

"If that runs smoothly, Motorola will be better off, but if there is a delay, it will hurt the shares," Tuncer said of the expected roll-out of digital handsets. "It's very critical they give us an update."

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:06 - ID#266105)

Reopened on the pink sheets after SEC suspension.
Up between 200-400% in first 1/2hr, vol 400k.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:10 - ID#269207)
@When you read the laws they write today, toll,
you want to check real close and see the what the law says, when it goes something like this "the Director shall or may...... because there is a big difference, shall means maybe, but nobody can make me!!: ) , and may means, when and I damn well want to!!! and at no other time!!
of course, when it comes to one agency trying to influence another,
the one must prove 3 things, before it can even start, 1. the act was wholely arbitrary, 2.clearly erroneous, 3. without authority; any one simply will not do, gots to be all 3.. no cheatin you see: ) And, if should find all 3, then it's off to Administrative court review for you,
and shame shame on you!!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:14 - ID#289357)
vronsky @ AG

We love you Alan, oh yes we do,

We love you Alan, and we'll be true,

When you don't speak of gold, we're blue,

Oh Alan, we love you.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:27 - ID#39828)
John Disney
I cant verify those Harmony figures. Could you point to the
relevant URL. Thanks. Dont the LIHIR Web Sites come up a

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:29 - ID#426220)

Trading opened this morning after 10 day halt. Now trading at $1.25 - UP $0.93 ( +291% ) - day's high ( so far $1.75 ) .... interesting, eh?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:33 - ID#285121)
Now available at a broker near you !
Jan 2000 XAU calls : ) Bargin of a lifetime IMHO

Monkee Person
(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:34 - ID#288105)
More signs of the times, boys, posted elsewhere.
re internet stocks: It's unreal. I wish I hired a 15-year-old to trade my account, I'd be better off. Our government stands by and watches as people throw their pension money into internet stocks. It's too late to catch these trains now, unless we can imagine yahoo market cap becoming larger than msft.

The brokerages broke out...MER is at a new high. No inflation. Meanwhile my health care costs just went up by 15% and my utilities by 4.5%. The catfood from Thailand went up by 10%, and milk and vegetables went up by 25%. But no inflation.


I back dated a chart for AMZN June 18th or something. Was going straight up at 45. I doubt if my nerves would have stayed with it. Maybe we should hire a 15 yr old that smokes pot to trade for us. :- )

I went down to the Farmers mkt the other day. Ark home grown tomatoes are .50 lb. In the local fancy air conditioned store they were $1.50 Same with broccoli.

I see the HMO's don't want your Doc. to write prescriptions for pills. Cost them money to make you well. Cool!

I use to rent a town house in a nice area 15 yrs ago. Last night 3 people got into it with each other and 2 are dead. 1 is alive but has no face.

Strange things are going on.



(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:41 - ID#426220)

SILVER expert shares his most recent analysis about the forthcoming bull market in the "Poor Man's Gold."

Mr. Butler draws upon an experience of a friend ( Izzy ) who successfully identified the beginning of the Silver Bull in late 1970s, when silver was about $4.50 per ounce. Subsequently, Butler's friend make TEN TIMES HIS MONEY, ridding silver to $45!

Izzy correctly interpreted that "when the ongoing deficit in silver finally necessitated the withdrawal of the COMEX stocks, the end of the great silver price manipulation and the illusion of abundant silver supplies was at hand."

Ted Butler sees a dj vu silver scenario described by friend Izzy. Furthermore, Kodak's recent silver market action corroborates Warren Buffetts massive silver accumulation.

We are at the MOMENT OF TRUTH, which may well be a repeat performance of Izzy's TEN-BAGGER KILLING.

Izzy's dj vu may be read at following URL by deleting the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting it to the Internet finder:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:43 - ID#286250)
"a wilderness of monkeys" [Merchant of Venice--if memory serves]
Paul Krugman

Only a few years ago pundits were sure that the United States was losing to Asia and Europe and had to emulate their more state- directed economies to remain competitive. Now the conventional wisdom is that America is number one and that the rest of the world should adopt its more laissez-faire approach. In fact, neither caricature is right. Asia was booming and now it is slumping, but it will be back. Europe's underlying ossification will persist.

But most important, while the U.S. economy is in a period of robust growth, nothing fundamental has changed. Its long-run growth rate has not accelerated, productivity has not risen, and the structural unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point at most. Come the next recession, all this triumphalism will seem silly.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:47 - ID#78145)
Isn't the Greenspan opinion posted an old one
re 1967 - given his job - his opinion is probably
different now.

Monkee Person
(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:50 - ID#288105)
:o : )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:51 - ID#28781)
T-bonds-- Yen---Gold , joined at the hip

Negative divergences continue to build on the t-bonds and positive divergences continue to build on the Yen and gold.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:52 - ID#246224)
Check this out on embedded systems

'Denial' is not a river in Egypt. Its the place where most people START their Y2K journey.

Fix it all in 18 months or less, including testing. Do interoperability and regression testing for every change you make to assure that you didn't screw up somewhere. Run your systems in parallel to check ALL the results and then 'throw the swtich'. There will ALWAYS be something that get's ya ...

How you gonna do this in the dark, baby???

Do you sincerely trust everyone else to do the job for you? See: the popularity of Dilbert.

When was the last time we did something on this scale and DIDN'T screw it up??? Worldwide, my friend. It must all be done in every nation on this green earth.

Surprise! Now your digital wealth is WORHTLESS. Why? Because it is based on the perceived viability of the ***future***. All predicated on the assumption that tomorrow will be another day, more or less like today. Notice Indonesia. The perception of the future is dimming there. All future based valuations are being destroyed. Anything that is tangible and held is more precious than promises.

Soon, in America, the perceptions of the future will change. All promises will be discounted more and more. Because the expectations of the possibilities of the future will dim and continue to dim as we move closer to the destruction of these 'systems'.

Hasta la vista, baby!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:52 - ID#426220)

REF: "boro ( vronsky-re:Greenspan ) -...given his job - his opinion is probably different now." OH REALLY, what did he tell you the last time you talked to him?!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:53 - ID#285121)
Rubin LOL
Just saw Rubin on CNBC studering and stamering like the stoned 15 year old.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 10:59 - ID#411331)
@ vronsky et all: Please accept my apologies for posting that
Golden Eagles International was a farce. A penny stock that goes
up $.93 after a cease-trading order must be the next Barrick Gold.

Please note that I can type with tongue in cheek, with no
interference in the quality of my post.

At the time of the Bolivian announcement, it occurred to me
that another Bre-X fraud would be just what Wall St. needs to
further discredit gold. A one hour typed message on a
typewriter would be sufficient to plant in the public
awareness that: there's an overabundance of gold in the world
and that all gold mines are frauds.

There is no way the SEC could have checked this thing out
in the time available. Has anyone heard about diamond-drilled
results for this Bolivian thing?????? If the SEC gave this
company the all-clear, then the rot's pretty deep. IMHO

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:19 - ID#43185)
ho hum
11:17 DOLLAR DOWN 1.1% TO 138.52 YEN, UP 0.2% TO 1.8122 MARK

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:25 - ID#289357)
COMEX PM Stocks as of 6 July 1998


810,298 Registered

249,614 Elligible

1,059,614 Total


42,735,583 Registered

43,164,753 Elligible

85,900,336 Total

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:28 - ID#113316)
For the past few days, I have made several posts and have sought input on the Japan carry trade. Is the yen weak or is it mostly a victum of short term aberrant economic conditions? Japan runs a huge trade surplus and is a major creditor nation. Keynes, bless his heart, says this should result in a strong currency. However, with short term interest rates in Japan at 1/2% and in US at 5 1/2%, this has created the Japan carry trade and the flight of capital out of Japan. This capital flight has caused the yen to be weak and has provided fuel for the US financial markets.

What would happen if Japan raised its short term interest rates to a par with the US? The Japan carry trade would evaporate and the capital would flow back to Japan ( look out US financial markets ) . Since the Japan carry trade is equally dependent on the strength of the dollar as well as the interest rate differential, it would be my guess that Japan would only need to raise interest rates by a small margin to greatly affect the markets ( no one expects it ) . It wouldn't take much of a decline in the dollar vs the yen to wipe out the 5% interest rate differential.

Reuter's article this morning was entitled "Rate Hike Needed to Boost Yen." Maybe Japan is closer to taking this action than first thought. It is my feeling that this is one of the "confluence of events" that will mark the end of the bull market in US financial assets. The dollar will fall and precious metals will rally. It had been my feeling that this transition would be gradual. However, with the frenzy in InterNet Stocks, I am coming to believe that the reversal will be violent, at least at first.

The InterNet stocks are the 7th sign. When the shorts are wiped out, the InterNet stocks will collapse.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:30 - ID#284255)
Sort of hard to imagine any public servant using a Mac.
They wouldn't have the IQ.
I am surprised at that as most data computers seem to be PC's.
Mac were more for the artists.

I've just been all over their site and can't find much on Y2k there.
I did find this report:
Which points to their counterparts - accountants, having a bit of a problem.
From what I have read most accountants have a huge job in front of them.
Seems they have to update all their databases/records to Year2000 compliancy.
Otherwise they ( accountants ) aren't considered compliant.
With most returns being computer entered data,
This is an immense job.
And one I''m sure they want to take on.
Accountants are like lawyers - they're everywhere.

This is another example of Y2k interconnectivity.
Maybe the ATO is Y2k proof but sure as anything,
Many of their suppliers of data ( accountants ) are far from it.

If nothing else will move the POG.
Y2k should.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:33 - ID#288186)
SILVERFOX; Good points made here. Also, everyone might want to browse
the usagold site. It ties in well...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:37 - ID#28767)
Where are the sellers? With some volume, this could be a huge UP day for equities. It feels like we're off and running. Comments?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:41 - ID#287280)
Beware the Jabberwock, my son

The Growth & Stability Pact [backgrounder...worth a look]
"It was never envisaged that EMU members would be under a strict obligation to keep their deficits always ( or nearly always ) below 3% of GDP, or that violators would face semi-automatic and massive fines. But that is what Germany has proposed.

( As Alice told the king: "That's not a regular rule: you invented it just now." "It's the oldest rule in the book," said the king. "Then it ought to be number one," said Alice." )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:47 - ID#43185)
Clearly Japan's troubles are either a direct result of or have been brought about through the effect of the strong US dollar. Of course, Japan is not the only country with difficulties of this nature, but it is the one most closely focused on. Some people even think of the asian problem as having been caused by the weak yen, and precious metals move with the yen nowadays, but it isn't the yen at fault.

Equally clearly, Japan will not solve it's problems until it gets local interest rates up to a par with US rates. This is extremely hard to do however because they fear raising rates will kill the NIKKEI and the bond markets. They don't seem to realize they are all done for anyway so why not bite the bullet. And of course, there are political issues.

There are always political issues.

The dollar, the Euro, gold, Asia, inflation control, hyperinflated equities markets, etc. are one big tangled web of intrigues. As always there will be victims and hidden agendas.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:48 - ID#258427)
Man..someone knows something ...
A million shares of SSC ... as tolerant1 would say...hmmmmm

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:49 - ID#287186)
miles__A - it is true. Macs will handle 2000+
Y2K problems do not apply to Macs - hardware wise.
As long as people input 2000+ data as four digits then the Mac will see it as 2000+. If in 2001 they input data as only 01 then the Mac will have to make an assumption. Not knowing what the user means it assumes it to be 1901.
Software like Excel stores dates internally as a five digit number. Jan 1, 2000 thus is 35064. ( actually it is a floating point number )
I tried a date rollover on an old system: a 1988 compact Macintosh SE running a 1992 operating system ( version 6.0.7 ) and a 1992 version of Microsoft Works ( version 3.0 ) .
Results: system date rolled over with no problem - it did display it in the control panel as 1/1/00 though. So I checked in MS Works by putting the formula =now ( ) into a cell formatted to show the full date and the underlying number. No problem: January 1, 2000 with the underlying number as 35064.000961
Microsoft Works ( both database & spreadsheet ) did have a problem correctly displaying dates beyond 2040. And the system had problems displaying dates beyond 2020. But these invalid dates did not crash the system or software. But I doubt people will still be using that software in twenty years.
As long as the human component enters a four digit year the Macintosh hardware and software will treat it as a valid 2000+ date for another twenty years yet - at least.
There is the exception of custom software. There is no way of telling what shortcuts somebody used.

BUT then there is the small problem of having no electricity to power those compliant Macs after Y2K. I guess I could put a push pedal arrangement under the desk to power an generator. 100 watts requires 86 calories/hour of peddle pushing ( plus inefficiency losses ) .

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:52 - ID#284255)
The claws that catch, the jaws that byte
Live commentary's

(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:52 - ID#401237)
miles__A ((@sharefin))

OZ on MAC ... that's cool, Bill evidently doesn't own you yet.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:57 - ID#401237)

Grains, Copper, Gold, etc.^CRB&d=1d

What do you think?


(Tue Jul 07 1998 11:58 - ID#288186)
Any posts recently from D.A.? I sure would like his take on the Silver and
Gold markets. Silver has been slowly creeping back up. I'm thinking
that if it gets close to 5.55 alot of shorts will begin to cover.
Also, gold has been very range-bound and hasn't been beaten down
like it usually does. Is a break-out around the corner? Are speculators
waiting to see what anouncements come out of the ECB meeting?
Let's hope the breakout is UP!! Fox-Man

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:00 - ID#401237)


Is this a just a blip on the radar screen?


(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:04 - ID#258427)
Highrise...that url
gave me July 2nd data... ( screwed up... )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:05 - ID#342376)
@ Rhody
I understand skepticism with Golded Eagle. Time will tell. Can I ask you why you are so sure it is a scam? I have spoken to a quite a few people, one has been to the site. IMHO, Gold is there. The question that remains is how much and at what price can it be mined. I may not be able to respond to you today, but I would appreciate any thoughts you have. Thank you.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:07 - ID#317193)
Are some people using their US$'s to buy hard assets???
I think so. Hedging your bets is not a bad idea. The exits are not very crowded...yet.

Disney...if the US$ drops in value to the Rand what happens to Harmony on the US markets...short term? Gold has to go up in dollar terms...could it be a wash? Interesting to watch when this happens.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:08 - ID#284255)
More for the dole?

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:08 - ID#24135)
mr Hedgehog ..
Dont use net for either .. subscribe
to UK based Mining Journal .. Numbers
for both are from there .. Maybe do a search
.. also Vronsky had some stuff on Harmony
at his site.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:09 - ID#401237)

It is true, the Mac can handle anything!
AAPL .... wish I still had some!


Look at the XAU! @ 71.48 +2.39 Aug $295.40
15 year mortgage under 6.5%
OOPs, watch the Utilities - 2

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:25 - ID#411331)
@ crazytimes: Golden Eagle has done no drilling, just test pits.
Yet they actually published gold reserves. This is ludircous.
Have you ever heard of residual concentrations? Gold is insoluble,
inert. As gold-bearing rock weathers, erodes, the gold remains untouched, and accumulates as a residium in the soil at many times
its real grades in the underlying unweathered rock. Every geologist
knows this. You must drill to obtain, fresh, unweathered, and
therefore unconcentrated samples.

If they just test pit, they may be sampling the gold that used to
be scattered through thousands of feet of overlying rock, now
removed by weathering. They then extrapolate the residual
concentrations throughout all the sub rock, as if the concentrations
extend to great depths. This is just not done. It is a scam.
There may be gold there, just not in the grades sampled in the test
pits throughout. IMHO

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:29 - ID#210235)
@Good morning, popular Yeltsin critic murdered, not by wife.
A good week to keep an eye on Russia. Let's see, since the government there is threatening to attach the assets of the big gas utility unless they pay back taxes, the utility is shutting down gas to 170 factories. The utility has no money as they're not getting paid - and the government is their largest single delinquent customer. The miners are STILL keeping the trains from running - in an effort to force the gov't. to keep the mines open. They believe that if the mines shut it will destroy the country. OK, we know that. The IMF is, of course, demanding this insane tax-collecting scheme.

The Prime Minister had to cut short a visit to Japan due to this non-crisis. And now a popular general and "war hero" has been murdered. The Russian Stockmarket is steadily declining, and interest rates are back to 120%.

What's next? How will it affect gold? Oil?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:37 - ID#43460)
SSC volumes
BillD: Have a look at this 5 day chart. It asks more than it answers. IMHO

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:42 - ID#210235)
@More Russian worries
IMF demanding "tough political decisions that will have to be taken very soon" as price for bailout. What could that mean?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:43 - ID#350179)
Vorpal blade @ snicker-snack!
Russia, IMF in broad accord over new credit

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:47 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-Russia markets tumble despite IMF support

MOSCOW, July 7 ( Reuters ) - Vague support for Russia from the International Monetary Fund was not enough to save plummeting domestic markets on Tuesday.

Despite some recovery, Russian shares ended off nearly five percent, treasury bill yields climbed an average 23 points to 113 percent and the rouble spent the entire day outside the daily central bank mini-band.

Markets took heart from statements by Kremlin debt negotiator Anatoly Chubais and representatives of the IMF and World Bank that they had agreed what Russia needed to do to get a new aid package. Russia has said it wants $10-$15 billion.

"The market has a Chubais complex," said Regent European Securities trader Alexander Fonarkov. "People began to close shorts early since he was getting ready to say something."

But negotiators did not list any concrete agreements or even name the size of the package at their impromptu news conference, held minutes after a Moody's official said Russia needed $15-$20 billion to keep investors rolling over short-term debt.

Traders said many major dealers and investors were sitting on the sidelines glumly watching the proceedings, daring neither to acquire more market risk or lock in major losses by selling.

The RTS index ended down 4.5 percent at 138.47 on a thin $26.12 million reported volume. "The number of investors in this market is a lot less than those running from it," said Andrei Galperin, a trader at Moscow brokerage Rinaco Plus.

All eyes turned to the central bank, seen faced with a decision whether to intervene on currency and t-bill markets, raise interest rates from their current 80 percent, or both.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:50 - ID#376309)
what more can I say!
Gold and the XAU are looking strong.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:50 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index is still rising ( slowly ) .

The weekly trendline that rises 2% per week from the last low in the Toronto Gold Index is at 6006 this week. This usually works well as a stop loss signal.

New lows on mining issues have not dried up at this point. This is required for an all clear signal. ( Note that the S&P has the opposite problem...too many issues hitting new lows as record levels are attained )

It is over two weeks since we had an extremely oversold reading on the ratio comparing the price of gold to the Worden Brother Gold Index. This is encouraging.

I always look for turns in the XAU during the first two weeks of January and July every year. If you look at a long term chart, you will see that this time period often contains market turns.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:51 - ID#269207)
@ The Golden Rocket,..........headed out on track #9
with a world full of souls onboard that fatefull day, that damn engineer died, just as he kicked her to overdrive......

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:52 - ID#284255)
The Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot Page
If Gary North really follows his message, he owns a lot of gold. He may be trying to rile some markets. This will drive up the cost of gold. This will make him rich.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:54 - ID#335190)
London, Frankfurt exchanges plan joint venture

LONDON ( AP ) -- The London and Frankfurt stock exchanges said Tuesday they will join forces in an alliance that they hope will evolve into a big European stock market. The joint venture has yet to be named, but bosses of the two markets say they hope to bring other European exchanges on board and build a huge electronic stock market as the same time European money markets are converging with a single currency, the euro.
London Stock Exchange chairman Jack Kemp-Welch called the deal "the first step along the road to a single European market.""It creates a new center of gravity from which the whole European economy will benefit," Werner G. Seifert, chief executive of the Deutsche Borse, said in London.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:57 - ID#432214)
Crazytimes & Mine
If this is the world biggest gold mine then where is ABX, PDG, NEM. No joint ventures, no private placements, what about area plays. If you were ABX and company what would you do with a $0.30 stock holding the world's largest gold mine in a depressed gold market. Maybe ABX can't get in touch with the company to make the take-over bid.

Run away, Run away, Run away.

Go Gold & Real Gold companies.

Strad Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 12:57 - ID#250297)
Y2K Fix?????
ALL: The followibg article is from USA Today. What do all you Y2'rs think? It sounds like good news,eh? Anyone know more? Is it just another hype story or the real thing?

Breakthrough May Help Squish Y2K Bug

A new tool to fix the Year 2000 problem may be a breakthrough that could speed the government, banks and companies toward a solution.

The product is Millennium Solution from little-known Data Integrity ( DII ) of Waltham, Mass. It was cleared for a U.S. patent in June, and Citibank, Credit Suisse First Boston, NationsBank and the Interior Department have signed on. The Federal Aviation Administration is said to be testing Millennium Solution.

Some who have used the product say it has cut the time to make Year 2000 fixes on some software by 80% or more. Bob Osmond, a consultant making Year 2000 fixes for Citibank, says using Millennium Solution allowed him to test and fix in one day a system that had 100,000 lines of code, compared with 30 days for another tool.

The Year 2000 bug threatens a majority of computer systems worldwide. Many software programs were written using two digits for dates, such as 98 for 1998. Once 2000 rolls around, computers would not know if 00 is 2000 or 1900.

But DII founder Allen Burgess had an insight: In most systems, the two-digit dates only cause a problem when the computer needs to do math - say, to figure a person's age or mortgage end date. In 2001 ( or 01 ) , a computer would figure the age of someone born in 1902 ( or 02 ) as negative 1.

Year 2000 tools usually search for dates, then either add digits to the dates ( to make 02 into 1902 ) or change the logic of the program to recognize dates for what they should be - any of which takes time, causes errors and can add to the processing burden on a computer system. "I woke up in the middle of the night and had the idea," Burgess says. "It's not a date problem. It's a math problem. We had to find and fix the math."

That's turned out to be so simple, fast and uncluttered, it has left
technology analysts aghast. One part of Millennium Solution searches for the math in a software program. Once it's found, the program - which, remember, can only handle two digits for dates - is instructed to add 50, then add 50 again. The result is always right. Take 01, subtract 02, and you get negative 01. Add 50 to get 49; add 50 more to get 99 - the correct age in 2001 of the person born in 1902.

"It could be a real find," says Andy Bochman of Aberdeen Group, which has looked closely at Millennium Solution. It won't, however, end the Year 2000 bug. Millennium Solution doesn't yet seem to work in all systems."It's not a silver bullet," says Jim Duggan, analyst at
Gartner Group.

By Kevin Maney, USA TODAY

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:06 - ID#28586)
@GSP bug
re. golden eagle ... perhaps there is a reason that the SEC cleared them so quickly;

perhaps the SEC WANTS another Bre-X scandle to drive another stake in the heart of gold?

your government: don't trust it. ever.

Spud, eyeing a Hersey with almonds choclate bar

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:07 - ID#289357)

FINALLY! They are in the information age. Thank you, Mr. Beaty!

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:13 - ID#28586)
@Strad Master & Y2K fix
Much missing from this marvelous fix - like, does it work on all programming languages? Cobol? PL/1? RPG? Lisp? Snobol? Pascal? Jovial? C? C++? Objective C? Ada? Fortan?

Does it only work on source code? Anyone know where the source code was last seen?

Does it fix compiled old utilities that everyone has forgotten about?

Does it fix embedded chips?

Let's get real: Either you repair and test the whole of a data-dependant computing system, or it won't work worth a damn.

Fixing 70% of the problem does not get you a 70% solution - it gets you 0% solution.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:14 - ID#261322)
Can anyone out there enlighten me about today's Kinross action? It's a volume leader on the NYSE, but I can't even see it trading in Toronto ( they usually go hand in hand ) . Has it been halted in TO due to some take over rumours or is the US action paper swapping due to Cypress-AmEx?. Thanks

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:19 - ID#284255)
Stradmaster - next email - not mine.
Too little too late and too specific. it does not address all the problems with date fields. It
will have to remain somewhat dubious until enough testing is done to verify that other code
is not affected. There are so many issues with date fields such as markers etc. that no
one tool will fix all the problems and one had better beware of such promises. Test, test, test
and more tests may prove uncover other problems fixes create.

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but articles such as this may cause more complacency.
I like the bottom line here:
Sorry to be so pessimistic, but articles such as this may cause more

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:21 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' What we know, The Coward Erect and the First Bunt Cake are
money grabbing whores of the bottom feeding kind. What we know, there is no difference between the Democrats and the Republicansthey are spineless weasels with their hands outsee first comment. What we do knowanyone down the food chain from the Coward Erect is crucified for their sexual activities. What we do know, Justice in the United States is whose wallet is biggeror in certain instancesyou still can not beat Don Piglet as the black hand Does reach the highest circles. What we do know the First Whores steal and nothing is donewhat we do knowdont put that quarter in the parking meter and the Justice Delinquents go for the death penalty, or surround your homewait till the mediaocrity shows up so the whole country can watch them burn your and yours to death, spending 20,000,000.00 to get back that quarter which they pull from the asheshold up to the cameras and sayseeWhat we dont know is when the UN and Chinese troops will land on US soil because We the People have gotten out of hand and need to be put back in our places

Need I go on

Got Patriotism

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:22 - ID#350179)
Pakistan might seek moratorium on loan repayments
ISLAMABAD, July 7 ....... Back to headlines


Pakistan might seek a moratorium on repayment of loans if
sanctions imposed are applied to international financial institutions
such as the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the World Bank,
Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz said Tuesday.
Aziz told Kyodo News that he would start policy talks Wednesday
with Paul Chabrier, the IMF's Middle East director, on the release of
the next installment of $1.6 billion in loans from the IMF.


Dave in CO
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:23 - ID#229103)
@Spud Master
Good points. I'm sure it works on DIBOL, AUTOCODER, all forms of BASIC, all the old software products ( e.g., DEC DBMS ) still running on old operating systems ( e.g., DEC RSTS ) , ..., and last but not least, embedded chips. Oh what a relief it is.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:26 - ID#43185)
go, goblin, go
Goblin's out for bear today. Hang on to your shorts!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:31 - ID#335190)
Popular General & Russian "War Hero" General Lev Rokhlin @ Killed ( rapid evolution to the left) FYI

By appointing 31-year-old Vladimir RYZHKOV to a key post in the State Duma, the ruling party Our Home is Russia ( OHR ) is apparently intent on shedding its image as an "old boys' club" unable to place young members in top positions.

This move to strengthen OHR's leadership shows that Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is giving more attention to his movement and his own future plans.


One other serious problem for the Our Home is Russia faction is General Lev Rokhlin. Some say he is not playing an independent role, that his opposition is in accord with certain government structures and is intended to counterbalance Aleksandr Lebed.

I have no reason whatsoever to believe that scenario. General Rokhlin has over the past couple months visited almost 40 Russian regions, has met with the people and military personnel.

As a rule, in 9 out of 10 instances these contacts were arranged by local committees of the CPRF. At the same time, at a plenary meeting of the communist faction Igor Bratishchev announced the creation of an extrafactional coalition in support of the army and defense industry that is similar to Mr. Rokhlin's, and called on deputies to join him.
Representatives of left-wing factions make up the base of this coalition. In this way, Lev Rokhlin has completed a rapid evolution to the left, to the communist camp, and if this is in accord with anyone, then it is probably with his new allies and not with someone representing presidential or government structures.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:33 - ID#284255)
GAO to Navy: Get control of your Year 2000 efforts
The Navy also doubled the number from five to 10 full-time employees dedicated to the Year 2000 effort and is developing contingency and testing plans for all its critical systems
This is an absolute joke. ha ha ha
U.S., Canada, U.K. military face computer problems
``There are still some people in denial. We need to work on that,''
GAO: 'No one in charge' of Y2K
The General Accounting Office's chief scientist last week said "no one is in charge" of the federal government's Year 2000 preparations and that nobody knows for sure just how much headway the government is making in its battle against the clock.
"our entire way of life, in essence, is at risk"
"It's one hell of a management problem
The joke gets bigger not better...
Federal Bytes
FROM JFK TO Y2K. Evidently the government's turgid progress in fixing its Year 2000 problems has taken on a sinister overtone in some circles.

Based on an e-mail response to a recent story in FCW, some people believe that the Clinton administration has been talking up potential information-warfare threats from militias and from other countries as a way to divert attention from the pending Year 2000 crisis: "Clinton knows damn well he is to blame for not addressing this sooner."

The e-mail, labeled:
"Y2K - The cover-up has begun," concludes that "our government has lost all integrity."

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:38 - ID#373284)
Dave, oh yeah, I left one of my favorite people in the whole wide world out of my
anybody got a clue tirade. The dog defiler Camdesuss who is a bottom feeding leach who borrows billions of dollars from the American peopledestroys countriestakes their goldgives them worthless paper and tells them to live within their meansOR ELSEand as the people sufferthe dog defiler Camdesuss eats caviar and drinks the finest Champagne and the American people cover that too as a business expense

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:40 - ID#284255)
Why Canada Is Going Down The Crapper
Canada is Circling The Drain. Essential services like Water, Oil, Gas and
Electricity are behind the curve. They are not going to make it. And Canada is
one of the 'best' prepared in the world.
Sounds like they're out to head off Australia at the pass.
If the top IT countries are having problems,
What about the others.
Listen to Yardini's report. It's an eye-opener.
Asia burnt toast.........>

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:46 - ID#252150)
Your haiku is great
Your prognostications fair
In your underwear

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:46 - ID#373284)
The Coward Erect will be responsible for the deaths of more Americans than
anyone can guess...and America does not care...what a used to be country.

Strad Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:48 - ID#250297)
Who's right?
SHAREFIN: You made no commentary on what you thought of the logic presented on the "Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot" page other than about his stockpiling gold. That one makes great sense to me since, if I recall correctly, he was once associated with MONEX either as broker or in some other capacity. If so, he would naturally have a stong goldbug inclination and may just be egomaniacal enough to personally want to try to drive the market in his direction. What about all the other ideas on that page?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:49 - ID#269207)
@ The spineless kind, with no mandatory Constitutional
Check, on any and/or all Congressional acts, afore they become LAW...
Since Jackson so kindly put that lil' practice aside, jus what damn difference does the Constitution make on any lil' ol' ACT by the Spineless and their Kind....when carefully they apply lil' deeds, one at a time, to those in need of a lil' 3rd got to be slapped by an ACT, afore you can reply, and then it will only cost YOU a hundred or kilo's or so, for the privilege of making the official Reply.......and when you buy that mouthpiece to make your lil' reply..... jus remember...
who is keeper's be.... cause he has a license don you see....

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:49 - ID#269207)
@ The spineless kind, with no mandatory Constitutional
Check, on any and/or all Congressional acts, afore they become LAW...
Since Jackson so kindly put that lil' practice aside, jus what damn difference does the Constitution make on any lil' ol' ACT by the Spineless and their Kind....when carefully they apply lil' deeds, one at a time, to those in need of a lil' 3rd got to be slapped by an ACT, afore you can reply, and then it will only cost YOU a hundred or kilo's or so, for the privilege of making the official Reply.......and when you buy that mouthpiece to make your lil' reply..... jus remember...
who is keeper's be.... cause he has license don you see....

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:52 - ID#335190)
FYI @ FWIW General Lev Rokhlin

J. Adams
July 11th, 1997

The Spirit Of Truth Page

Threatened with the loss of 600,000 troops under plans currently being drawn up by General Igor Sergeyev, the newly-appointed Defence Minister, several retired generals have urged serving officers to "take the matter into their own hands".

The issue came to the surface last week when General Lev Rokhlin, a popular former combat officer who now heads the parliamentary defence committee, issued a damning seven-page open letter to Mr Yeltsin blaming him for the destruction of the armed forces.

General Rokhlin, who commanded Russian troops during the bloody capture of Grozny, the Chechen capital, before running for parliament in a pro-Yeltsin faction, said he had been forced to act to prevent the collapse of the armed forces.

"You fooled the nation and the military, failing to fulfil your pre-election promises," said General Rokhlin, whose outburst may cost him his position in the Our Home is Russia faction. "You have destined the armed forces to destruction."

In the letter, General Rokhlin predicted that if the military was weakened any further, Russia would lose control of the Far East and Siberia in the next century. He said Russia's future as a nuclear power was also under threat, and blamed Mr Yeltsin personally for the disastrous military campaign in Chechnya.

By far his most inflammatory remarks were addressed to serving officers. He advised them to mobilise and issue the Kremlin with demands. "Unite, elect your leaders and demand that your legitimate rights be exercised," he said. "Do not hope that someone else will do this for you. Our unity in resisting the disintegration of the army is the guarantee of our success."

Not surprisingly, the comments sent a chill through the Kremlin. Although there has not been a military insurrection since the Decembrist uprising of 1825, the present lamentable state of the armed forces could provide a fertile ground for mutiny.

General Sergeyev, whose plans to reduce the armed forces from 1.8 million to 1.2 million must be completed by July 25, on Sunday denounced the letter as incitement "to revolt".

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:53 - ID#373284)
Strad Master, Namaste' my take on the Gary North article if you could call it that,
I would like to see the individuals credentials compared to Yardeni and mention of the way...did the individual write that for free? or did they make a buck...


get paid

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:53 - ID#212197)
@Allen(USA): Thanks for the pointer which you sent at 10:52
That's the best about embedded chips which I have seen so far.

I've sent Dr. Frautschi my conclusions about the message records which are forwarded to the control centers in power plants. They all contain the Date/time stamp of the chip, even if the "firmware" doesn't work with date as a parameter. It wouldn't make sense to know something is wrong if the message wouldn't tell when it went wrong.

What's your opinion on this?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:53 - ID#284255)
Walton Feed out of business after Y2K?

Strad Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:54 - ID#250297)
Missed something
TOLERANT1: "The Coward Erect will be responsible for the deaths of more Americans than anyone can guess." How so?

Richard Burke
(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:55 - ID#411318)
bmacd: Kinross is trading very actively on toronto this morning. 990,462 shares; up $0.35 or 7.61% at $4.95 at 1:37PM.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 13:57 - ID#298380)
I am convinced that a man with your literary ability can express
yourself and make your point without the ultra vicious attacks on
the first family. Please show some respect for the office.
No reply necessary. Thanks and Namaste, Have a small gulp for me!!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:06 - ID#29048)
N. America gold shares up, but earnings seen shaky

Strad Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:06 - ID#250297)
Uh Huh
TOLERANT1: Good point regarding the Gary North article. I noticed that, too. No mention of the author's name at all, leave aside his credentials! Also, ad hominum attack is no way to start an article if you want to win points with me. Not good signs. Nevertheless, I'm in no position to be able to evaluate the strengths and/or weaknesses of technical arguements. Namast.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:10 - ID#220325)
Goldfevr**Thanks for the COT information!
Would it be possible for you to post the PM charts of the traders? Thanks

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:12 - ID#284255)
I think the writer had blinkers on when he penciled that piece.
He's more out to attack G. North than ascertain what Y2k is about.
I'd give him 1 out of ten.

As for G. North some are starting to rethink their thoughts on his ascertations.
Two years back you would have called him extreme to the maximum.
Now I feel he's only just extreme.

There is a very real possibility that Y2k could be socially damaging.
Seems a lot more concern out there today than two months back.
I guess a lot of the code has been looked at and systems checked.
Seems like it's a bigger job than originally thought.
Reports of tests failing with further work to do seem rife.
Guess it's test, test and test.

Seems like awareness overseas is only just starting to hit.
And the opinion is that it's been left too late.
When they say they'll get a percentage of mission critical up and running.
Well it doesn't sound good.

Too much interconnectivity - globally.
And less than 400 working days.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:15 - ID#411331)
@ ALL: GOLD LEASE RATES rose in the past two hours.
In the past two hours, 1 month lease rates rose from 1.26% to 1.31%.
In the past two hours, 1 year lease rates rose from 2.01% to 2.06%

Since this is a .05% across the board rise, it is unlikely to be
a short term increase in demand by the gold carry short-sellers.
Although, it is small, it is in the right direction. Lets hope
that this signals a change in CB lending policy and an end to
this artificial gold bear.

Gold lease rates should be watched very carefully over the next few
weeks to see if this is the start of a new trend towards more expensive
gold ( or at least gold that is less than free. )

If you are wondering about the last phrase, at present forward rates
for gold, the Central Banks in a sense are actually paying you to
borrow gold. When was the last time you went to a bank and the loan
officer paid you to borrow the banks money?

Is it a wonder that the world is at the endge of a financial abyss?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:16 - ID#350179)
Glitch my a$$
AKARTA, July 7 ....... Back to headlines
World Bank calls for Indonesian political consensus


A visiting top official of the World Bank called Tuesday on
Indonesians to create a political consensus, warning that the lack of
such a consensus will make the country's economy deteriorate further.
''There ( should be ) a completely new set of rules...for this
country, and it is not at all for the World Bank to say what set of
rules should be found and what the right political scenario and
solutions would be for Indonesia,'' Jean-Michel Severino, the World
Bank's vice president for East Asia and the Pacific region, told a
press conference.

FOCUS-Indonesia crisis shrinks economic growth

Indonesians urged to save food by fasting

I missed this one... just gives you warm fuzzies.
INTERVIEW-IMF sees Asian lift-off next year

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:25 - ID#284255)
ALBERICH - Spudmaster, et al
You might enjoy this site.
There is high level of programmers posting.
And very interesting observations.
The site is more-so designed for programmers.

Registration is free and easy.>
From; SIM Year 2000 Working Group

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:27 - ID#242325)
lease rates
Rhody: What is the URl of the site you use for lease rates?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:32 - ID#284255)
The bottom of this article speaks of G. North.
"compliance" is a clear loser

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:33 - ID#373284)
Strad Master, The answer to your question on dead American is really rather
simple. Two items... ( minus the clear stupidity with the Chinese ) is zero nerve and lack of being forthright with the American people on Y2K. I agree with the individuals that say we will lose a couple of cities. Loss of life and damage from Y2K will be devastating. Why else would the Coward re-write all of the Executive Orders that he has

And now the militaryhe has gutted our armed forces. He has our troops around the globe with unsatisfactory inventory to properly keep them in place and he has them in hot spots and we have no real reserves. I believe that he will be responsible through his complete lack of foreign policy for the deaths of many fine men and women who defend this country as his global village goes up in flames.

Strad Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:39 - ID#250297)
Got it.
TOLERANT1: Thanks for the explanation. All is clear now. Namast.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:41 - ID#212323)
Thoughts on Speed's 14:06 URL
An excerpt...

"An analyst at J.B. Weere said the Philadelphia exchange gold and silver index has been volatile and today's gains were within the recent trading range, itself near historic lows.

'There is not a good risk/return scenario in gold stocks,' the analyst
What a Yankee-doodle Noodle! When trading at historic lows, one wonders where the downside can be found to make such an asinine statement about "risk/return". Although one might be tempted to concede the point on the return aspect, I firmly put my foot down over the risk issue.

Wanna talk about risk?...
got tech stocks?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:45 - ID#373284)
CharlieS_A, Namaste' and a gulp to ya! But Sir, I must respond and respond...
I will. I do not respect furniture, the office it is in nor the building which contains them. I either respect the individual which is housed there or I do not. I do not respect William Jefferson Clinton. PERIOD.

As you can see Sir my writing style has much to do with respect, as you can see the manner in which I replied to you.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:49 - ID#411331)
@ Old Gold: re LEASE RATES: go to
and click on gold and silver lease rates.

The trick is to keep records and post significant

Over the past two years, I have come to the conclusion that
the POG is a function of only two major factors:

1 ) the strength of the US dollar and real interest rates

2 ) lease ( and forward ) rates.

All other factors can only modify the trend established by these two.



(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:49 - ID#350179)
Keep em in the dark (they seem to like it)
You know, sometimes this ( Kitco ) is exactly like telling the neighbors that those bugs are NOT flying ants - they are termites. They will literally eat you out of house and home.
People just do not like bad news - especially if it will cost them. "Oh they are not, WE don't have termites" Fine, you are now *informed*, thank you.

Russian shares take heart from IMF, but end on low note

I'm taking a break, this is like watching a global version of the Hindenberg reel in slow motion - first the spark...

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 07 1998 14:55 - ID#377196)
Tolerant1 (BRAVO)
Oh Tolerant1, your best post yet! Congrats. To hell with fixtures,
it is the man behind that counts. Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:02 - ID#350179)
What, huh?
Net Stock Frenzy Sparks Fear

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:03 - ID#219363)
search engine fun
I was just playing around and decided to do a "hit count" on various bullish/bearish phrases as they appear in the different search engines. I didn't expect to find any kind of patterns ( and I don't see any ) , but I thought I'd run it again in a couple of months just to see if there were any noticable trends.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:11 - ID#212323)
Doing my part to save Russia...
Their heritage, that is. Today I received my long awaited 10 ruble gold coin from 1899, back when Russia knew better days. It's larger than a English gold sovereign, folks!

Imagine the devastation if rather than holding on to your ruble-wealth in coin form, you let it sit in account somewhere on a paper ledger. It would be worthless today. This 10 ruble coin kept its purchasing power quite nicely, thankyou. I salute the memory of its past owners.

got coin?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:27 - ID#373284)
Gold Dancer, Namaste' a gulp to ya...MM, Namaste' Sure does make for some
interesting thoughts while drinking my next beer. Although I gotta tell
ya...we are so far past reality that when we come back down to earth as a group...not pretty...nah...not pretty when this market crashes...

We should save all this stuff for posterity though...30 years from now it will make for interesting reading eh...gulp to ya...

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:28 - ID#377196)
When I saw the word interconnectivity in Sharefin's post it struck a
cord. I am not an expert in computers etc. but I have noticed something
in the boating market which relates. Starting about 5 years ago the
rage in sailboat instruments was to connect them all together so they
could share information. Many people did this but with bad results. I
never liked the idea so kept my instruments separate. I have had no
problems. Last year I talked with the head electronics person at
West Marine Products and he had completely changed his mine about
interconnecting instruments. Something happens, he says, when equipment
starts to share information, even from the same manufacture. If somthing
goes wrong with one it affects all instruments. Now, this stuff is not
complicated and I can just imagine what will happen to the "global
village" concept when the year 2000 shows up.

I have learned something in my 55 years and that's when polititians
come up with a cute phrase watch out, someone is about to get the shaft.
The global village, it seems to me is going ( no, is already ) turning
into a global jungle. Complete with vultures to pick over the dead.

Another way to put it is that a nice face hides motives. Bill Clinton
is but a symbol for the whole system of international finance, banking
etc. This is why the world never changes and why cute politcally correct
phrases hide the ugly side of human nature where it does all sorts of
damage under the guise of respectibility. Politically correct criminals
is a good way to express this, and they are destroying the fabric of
culture around the world.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:30 - ID#24997)
Sounds like a Kitcoite wrote this,qt=d0f54461-0-253cd-1-0-0-125c--

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:34 - ID#251166)
@ Envy re. hit list
All right! I'd say you've stumbled onto something that might have some meaningful purpose, i.e. market sentiment indicators or some such thing. I wonder if the concepts -- "purchasing gold" and "buying gold" for example -- might be grouped into a two-by-two or three-by-three conceptual matrix, scored, then graphed. Might yield something akin to a "sentiment index" for use in combination with other T.A. . . .


(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:37 - ID#410198)

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:40 - ID#365216)
Klinton to use Y2K to his advantage
Anyone besides me see Klinton invoking executive orders/martial
law in advance of Y2K as a last ditch effort to stay in power?
I see this as more of a threat to our country than any real or
perceived millenium bug, however big it may be.

Remember who we are dealing with and be afraid, be very afraid.

That is all.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:42 - ID#269207)
did I double post, my apologies.......oh well! another gulp to LA Te Da an F**king DE

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:49 - ID#373284)
General, Namaste' a repost of mine from early this morning in cased you missed
it...and this ain't making my morning better either...more on Emperor Klinton...he should be taken to task for the below items, and many, and I mean many more and threatening the lives of Americans on Y2K...his campaign slogan to all takers..."SHOW ME THE MONEY" Sheesh...this then is America's leader...take a good look people...a real good look...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:53 - ID#287186)
Sharefin passed along this url

Unfortunately, the die hard Wintel supporters refuse to consider Macintosh regardless of what distress their pet Wintel machines cause them. They figure that all computers are equally a hassle. They have spent so much time with IRQs, DLLs, DMAs, XMS, EMS, EIDE, ISA, etc. that they can not conceive of a computer that lets you plug a SCSI peripheral into it and it works - out of the box.
Like the folks who insist on making a cake from scratch rather than buying one ready to eat. I guess it depends on whether you like baking or eating. Me - I like eating.

That way I have more time for Kitco and earning money to buy Silver and Gold.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:53 - ID#410198)
General.....hate to do this,but your worst nightmare is a reality and I have the official truth

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:55 - ID#210235)
@Donald - this will be of interest to you
Hi. Looks like liquidity drying up in Russia due to threatened major bank failures. Nasty piece of business.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:56 - ID#410198)
Squirrel....YES MAC RULES.....LOL

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 07 1998 15:59 - ID#377196)
Beware of "Rubins" bearing gifts.
Mr. Rubin's latest idea for the final f****** of the american
people and their retirement funds is about to hit the street tomorrrow.
Let me see now, the CPI is understating inflation by a few percentage
points now and as inflation picks up it will understate it even more.
So if the bonds are adjusted it means that they are just going to use
a little Rubin Jelly.....

Why would the government introduce these bonds if they didn't plan on
inflation ( falling dollar ) coming back soon? It makes no sense in a
deflation. The government can't pay its debts off now so maybe they
think someone will at least buy this stuff so they can roll over their
debt. But how can the US afford to do this.....I don't know.

Does this mean that we now have two classes of bonds, does this mean
cross trading? The boys must see the light at the end of the tunnel
and it's coming fast. Better we all get off the tracks and get GOLD.

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:05 - ID#28586)
@Klinton & Y2K
I don't expect the Coward in Chief to leave office lawfully - like you I see him attempting a take-over & suspension of the US Constituion under one or more trumped up "National Emergenices", ala Y2K, domestic terrorism, White House Intern Abuse, etc.

I don't expect the American people to put up with it.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:24 - ID#350179)
Learning too much
Y2K bugs abroad may zap U.S.,25,23915,00.html?pfv

Russian markets fall more amid talks with IMF

Russia MoF replaces 3 Wed paper sale with new sales

Study focuses on lenders' role in Asian crisis

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:30 - ID#347267)
Just got in from my West slope where a small twister did some tree damage last month; man its hot out there if youre burning brush!! But talk about HOT: 22 to 200 in a year!!! Earnings per share MINUS $0.43!!! 12 M shares traded with 46 M out there!!! 200 is a nice round figure and history shows that stocks sometimes turn on round figures, if ever there looked like a blow off this is it!! Would I short it yet??? NOOOOOOO!!!!!! Check the following and scroll down to see the FUNdamentals:

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:36 - ID#377196)
You say the American people won;t put up with Clinton taking over.

My retort is that the German people did. And we will too. You see
evil comes tip toeing in on little cat feet. First it will be the
year 2000 problem which will entail national effort and coordination.
Then will come the stock market bust, and then will come the realization
that the house of cards is just that, and then will come the desire
to make someone else pay...just like the Germans after the mark was

This country is filled with people who do not take responsibility for
themselves. And it is these people who do not see anything "bad" in
what will start off as something benign. They don't understand the
notion of liberty, they don't teach that on MTV. They don't like the
concept of sacrifice. They don't see that on the news. What they see
on the news is everyone else in the world having to sacrifice due to...
well, due to the fact that they are not Americans...we are the greatest..
we are blessed....we are different...are we????? We will see....

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:38 - ID#350179)
Now for something completely different
Hands off that data--I'm European

Get Short ( y )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:44 - ID#401460)
Clinton and the Secret Service - they will testify!
"The President's Secret Service agents should not be excluded for testimony in a criminal matter." President Gerald Ford and now the Courts!

Today's decision.the Secret Service has to testify.

Clinton is in trouble, the net closes around him, and it is a long time to November.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:48 - ID#210235)
@Peru plunged into recession
due to El Nino effects and falling metals prices. Why do I get this surreal, creepy feeling like watching a movie, and the blob is getting bigger, and closer, and nobody sees it?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:52 - ID#255151)
Help. I've Lost a Link, and I Can't Get It Back!

There is this web site by this bearish guy who writes a letter every month or so. It has an orange background with black letters. Anyone remember the name of this or have a link? Off to work now. Back at midnight.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:53 - ID#246224)
Alberich re: embedded nasties
A bloody, screwed up mess waiting to fail. I can't see then fixing this stuff in the dark! Notice Dr.F's information that the three big silicon mfgs will allow some plants to fail outright. I sure hope that the chips needed to repair some critical embedded systems aren't locked up in those crashed plants ( memory systems ) .

Quite unfortunately I am beginning to develop a nervous tick and uncontrolled bouts of maniacal laughter in the work place. My only consolation is the knowledge that they can't afford to get rid of me .. I work on computers!

I work in healthcare. Our IS department is slowly grinding to a halt as resources are diverted to hyper critical repair projects. Once things start failing outright there will be no remediation. And most of our software is provided by vendors, so there is no direct effort we can make to remediate other than pressuring them to hurry up the work. I understand that people are getting really nasty with each other, etc fighting over the few resources. Of course the constant reprioritization and reshuffling eats into the heart of productivity and morale.

In a word "paralysis".

As I posted here a few days ago a local multibillion $ insurance company has some interesting dynamics developing amoung the managerial staff. They think they MAY be ready *just* in time, but they also know that unless just about everyone else is ahead of them then they are toast. virtually no one is head of them. So the talk amoung the managers is what good sense it makes to have 1 year's salary in CASH in hand by end of 1998, and some of them are buying land in Arizona and New Mexico. Mind you these people are not gear heads. They are the pinnicle of success mindedness. And they are talking CASH in the $100,000's.

Just a bit of perspective from those who know how hard it is to remediate Y2K. They are preparing to bail out.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:54 - ID#401460)
Squirrel - Mac G3

Bought my Mac G3 last week, a real butt kicken machine. Set it on the desk plugged it in hooked it up to the other Mac 7500, flip the switch and was up and running.

No Wintel crap to install or Bill Gates ring kissing required.

I can run a Netscape, Eudora, Claris Works, and a Cad program at the same time.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 16:57 - ID#246224)
That creepy feeling is from the movie sound track; that erie, wafting tune in minor key, the dark scenes and the .. AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH, muffle, muffle .... heeeeellllllllpp gurggle ... gurggle ... pssst~~~~

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:00 - ID#246224)
Gold Dancer
Already showing yer stripes, bud??? ;- ) In order to saticfy the guidelines it is suggested to add a "GO GOLD!!!" at the end of all posts which do not directly use the word 'gold' in the text. Then rant on!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:01 - ID#14480)
Auric; lost link
Could you mean the Contrarian's View?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:01 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.83. The 50 day moving average is 30.27

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:04 - ID#255151)

That's it! Thanks.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:06 - ID#207145)
Next change in intrest rates
is up. 30 year mortgages are under 7%. Refinancing is rampant. Dow theory says if transports, utilities, and bonds are all clicking, the economy will do just fine. 2nd quarter is supposed to drop off after a 1st quarter like we had. Look out for 1987 replay.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .242. The 50 day moving average is .258. My database contains 28 occasions where the XAU closed in the 71.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #23. The #1 ranking was on 8/8/86 with a gold price of $375.60, an XAU of 71.46 ( coincidently ) , producing an XAU/AU ratio of .190

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:09 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.68. The 50 day moving average is 54.28

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:09 - ID#212323)
Asking for help from my group of friends here...
Any tips or URL's for buying airline tickets direct using the Internet?
Are the possible savings worth the effort vs. using a travel agent to book the flight?

Sorry it's off-topic Bart. Thought I could take a small liberty in light of my track record.

got advice?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:10 - ID#207145)
Buy the bloopers,
Japan, oil, gold. Be sure to income average, don't be a hero.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:12 - ID#347235)
Golden Eagle
Does anyone know of any news on MINE as I think it started trading today and spiked up --only to fall over 50%.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $296.71; spot silver $5.48; XAU 76.72

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:13 - ID#246224)
Date/time stamped data is certainly a problem. In a centrally controlled OR distributed environment. The project requires much more than simply changing chips or correcting software. And if your chips have various mfgrs with various solutions then you are left trying to make these brats work together. One of his points was that there must be significant down time to remediate. So if they do that ( fat chance ) then we are looking at power problems way in advance of y2K roll over.

Dr.F uses the figure of 21 months to remediate a medium size non-nuclear power station. Well, I guess this tells us that we will in no wise be ready. We are going down and down hard. Given the completely uncoordinated efforts that are being waged I suspect that we will see many decisions about what was 'not important' to one company - a system which dies - that will toast people outside of the organization who are depending upon it. Case in point the forementioned INTEL, MOTOROLA decisions to let some plants die. How many utilities will make the same decision? How many transportation companies, oil companies, etc will make the same decision? It seems that people in industry who are finally grabbing this problem are finding it to be the medusa itself .. and are turning to stone as they stare into its peircing eyes.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:15 - ID#373284)
III in the house of ARAGORN, Namaste'
In this I have no input...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:23 - ID#36977)
My limited experience has been that a good travel agent can still beat internet prices by using discount coupons, better market knowledge.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:29 - ID#350179)
Do I really need to post this?
IMF sends positive signal on Russia credit

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:29 - ID#246224)
What would you do if ...
in the midst of fixing the millenium bug in your inhouse software failures began to occure in your production systems due to the fact that date problems begin to crop up way before 1/1/2000?

You will pull programmers off of remediation and assign them to patch the production systems, right? At what point then will it become self evident that such reshuffling will actually PREVENT any more meaningful remediation???

You already started late. Its taking longer to do then you ever thought possible. Your programmers are being hired out from under you. Your managenment is screaming about production systems that are halted.

At some point you will simply plan to walk away from it all. Call a cab. 'Good bye. Have a nice millenium.' And you will know that freedom was a choice away.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:30 - ID#410198)
The best way to buy airline tickets and gold on the internet 1-800-555-1212 :-)

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:30 - ID#212323)
Thanks for indulging my question Tyro and Tol-Cool-One...
Unless someone chimes in contrary to Tyro's info, I'll use the phone. I guess this is actually gold-related because I'll be travelling to New Orleans. Gold can ALSO be thought of as The Big Easy.

...or the big no-brainer--as in, "No worries. Get you some!" ( Gold, that is. )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:32 - ID#373284)
These state department boys fall into the no respect catagorey for me as WJC
Do ya see the hypocrisy...China, Taiwan, Tibet, etc...etc...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:32 - ID#57232)
Secret Service to testify -- bad for BC.
HighRise: I think you are right -- some of those secret service guys will have alot to say. They are paid to be observant. I suspect many are of the older generation, and do not think highly of the Clinton crowd.

This is not just Monica Lewinsky. There is another blonde member of the White House that Monica was jealous of -- as yet unidentified. And -- there may be stories of Chinese visitors with shady backgrounds that visited BC. Perhaps something about ChinaMissleGate or Vince Foster -- missing papers removed under Hillaries direction -- or ChinaCommerceRiadyGate. BC will fight this every step of the way until they literally carry him out of the WhiteHouse.

I wonder what BC has up his sleeve to counter these events. Did you all notice that members of the Congressional Committee to begin impeachment proceedings has been instructed by the Chairman of the Committee not to take any Vacations in July? Perhaps something big is brewing.

If we go forward with impeachment proceedings, it will be interesting to see how gold/gold equities will respond. You would expect it to go up, even if the equity markets droop. A market crash is probably unlikely, unless other triggering events coalesce.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:38 - ID#349183)
A Personal Y2K bedtime story (@Allen, Promey, Dancer, et al)
A true story. The names have been changed to protect the guilty.

I am a database analyst, recently having left a large telecommunications
firm known as "CTI" ( Which was recently purchased by the communications giant known as "TT&A" for $32 Billion USD ) This is my story.

This telecommunications firm ( CTI ) that I worked at didn't do any of their own billing. They farmed out the billing to two different companies; one used an old IBM mainframe system with COBOL programs, one used Tandem computers and "C" programs.

One day CTI decided it would be a great idea to build their own billing system so that they could fire their billing vendors and save some $. CTI spent ( roughly ) $200M on the project before they realized they were a cable TV company, not a billing company. Whoops. So: They asked their billing vendors to bid on the unfinished billing software they had developed. Winner of the bid would get the software, and ALL of CTI's customers, and the other billing vendor would be sent away.

CTI *knew* that the more 'modern' billing vendor would win... The vendor that used the newer Tandem hardware. As usual, CTI was wrong. The winner was the vendor with the ancient IBM mainframes. "So what?", you ask.

Wellllll.... Being the only data expert for CTI that was intimately familiar with the data coming from the COBOL programs, I know for an absolute FACT that NONE of the date fields were Y2K compliant in those old COBOL VSAM records. What's worse was that every time I asked the billing vendor for information or changes to these COBOL programs, they refused. The reason? The old COBOL programs had been written in the 80's, and they had NOBODY who could work on them anymore.

And to add insult to injury, this 'old fashioned' billing vendor just 'won' all of CTI's customers, which meant a huge conversion effort to get all of the customer data OFF the Tandems, and into the COBOL VSAM files. All personnel were required to work on this effort. Y2K? Who cares? "We gotta get all these customers converted from the one billing vendor to the other or we're doomed."

( Further insult: The wonderous $200M billing software CTI had developed was flatly trashed. All personnel were let go. )

So, to recap:
- Large telecommunications corp ( CTI ) completely dependent on a billing vendor that is non-Y2K compliant.
- All effort is focused on getting customer data to this vendor, which completely swamps all efforts of this vendor to do ANYTHING else.
- New unfinished/untested $200M Y2K compliant billing engine is trashed due to lack of commitment and experience.
- And to further complicate matters, all management eyes are now focused on the glorious merger with TT&A

One final note: These old COBOL programs and data also control all of the communications to-and-from the cable boxes on the top of your TV sets. No COBOL programs, no TV. ( Not just "no bills" )

So, in closing, I'm not going to tell you that CTI will be out of business January 2, 2000. Miracles can and do occur. I will say, though, that you might think twice about inviting the gang over for a night of movies that day.

Sorry for the length!


MG ( Go Gold! )

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:39 - ID#347267)
Contrarian Site@Auric
Notice that Veneroso wrote the "Memories of-----" Article??

All: today's action ( gold ) looks encouraging.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:40 - ID#373284)
the darn link won't work, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
U.S. condemns Myanmar's restrictions on Suu Kyi
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service

WASHINGTON ( July 7, 1998 4:51 p.m. EDT ) - The United States condemned Myanmar on Tuesday for restricting the movement of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who leads that nation's opposition.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:45 - ID#373284)
Ah, ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha from KAPLAN
"Incidentally, even after today's decline, the internet will have to expand to over fifty billion users to justify current valuations, meaning that intelligent life forms in other star systems will have to become subscribers--at current or higher profit margins, no less."

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:47 - ID#28586)
Just what is the FedGov going to do use to enslave the American People? Busted Y2K computer systems? Worthless Federal Reserve dollar-rubles?

TALK! Just the same old confidence game of TALK.

Your point re. Hitler & post-Wiemar Germany is well taken though; we now have similar masses of demoralized, dumbed-down, pliable inner city youth who would easily follow an Arkansas Hitler....


Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:52 - ID#347267)
All: Today's action looks VERY bullish IMVHO!!! Volume in NEM and HM over 1M shares. I like KGC, having sold prior to the last decline. Yesterday's lack of movement was a precourser that I have seen before, just prior to a good move. I'm BUYING in the am!!! Look at:

Auric: Notice that Veneroso was the author of that "Memories of ---" article at the Contrarian site? Best regards; Mtn Bear

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:54 - ID#210235)
@Donald, if time permits
Hi, please take a look at my 15:55. Do you see any way out of this box? There were a number of posts today about the russian crisis, 14:49, 16:24, 17:29 and earlier ones on the murder of the popular Russian General who had returned to the Communist Party and seemed to be stirring things up. Also the gas company is shutting down hundreds of factories in response to Yeltsin's/IMF-imposed tax threats. From what I can see, there's no way out but exploding the box.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 17:59 - ID#210235)
@Thank you, Mountain Goat
That story rings true, yessir.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:03 - ID#231337)
Steve Forbes: July 1998. He's on board.
Please read Forbes 1998 for the entire story.

By Steve Forbes


THE CLINTON/GORE ADMINISTRATION'S wrongful handling of the growing global
economic crisis will have palpably painful consequences for the U.S.

Japan is now officially in recession for the first time in nearly 25 ears; its economy hasn't performed so poorly since World War II. Hong
Kong and China are shaky. Indonesia continues to implode economically and explode politically. South Korea is sinking again. Latin American
currencies are under assault. Russia is floundering. Western Europe's recovery remains anemic.

Treasury chief Robert Rubin and his know-it-all lieutenant, Larry Summers, are still using the International Monetary Fund to inflict
bone-crushing austerity in Asia, via devaluation and tax increases. They are still dispensing boneheaded advice to Japan to "stimulate demand" by having Tokyo spend yet more money on uneconomic infrastructure projects
and one-shot tax cuts. They and the IMF are still telling Russia to improve" its tax collections. "Efficient enforcement" would bring in revenues exceeding the country's economyso how can such a convoluted, anti-incentive, byzantine and contradictory tax code be enforced?

And here at home, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten at a time when the increasingly parched world economy is screaming for fresh liquidity. That's why the dollar gold price has fallen, and most commodity indexes are undergoing downward pressure. Our central bank still hasn't grasped that the greenback is the unofficial transaction currency of numerous nations.

The Fed's inadvertent deflation is letting the air out of economies round the world.

No wonder stocks are wobbly. Most equities are down over the last eareven without taking into account the recent market turbulence.

IN THE FACE OF A HOPELESS Administration, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan must take the initiative. The Fed must ease until the price of gold, the best real-time indicator of monetary temperatures, reaches at least $325. This would not be inflationary; rather, it would avoid deflation.

Greenspan should tell the IMF, Rubin and Summers to cease plying their poisonous prescriptions. And he should urge Japan to take a leaf from Ronald Reagan's book. Reagan's program of growth-oriented tax cuts, deregulation and ( usually ) stable monetary policies made the U.S. economy the envy of the world.


INDIA'S DECISION to "test" its nuclear bombs and Pakistan's retaliatory tests are explosive reasons for swiftly developing an effective missile defense system. Other nations will eventually follow India and Pakistan. North Korea has already developed a bomb or two, and Iran is working
hard on one, as are Iraq and Libya. Rocket technology is also advancing. It is estimated Iran will be able to send missiles to Central Europe
within three years.

By upgrading the Navy's existing Aegis missile technology, we could have a floating missile defense system within five years, at a cost of less
than $5 billion. This should hold us over until we develop a thorough, sophisticated land-based antiballistic missile system.

What in God's name is this White House waiting for?

etc... etc... etc

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:07 - ID#43460)
Paper news
Here are recent quotes for a stock I sold last year, International Paper, and two paper related indices. You will notice pretty significant losses. I expect the recent IP layoffs will improve next quarter's report, but that and harvesting immature hardwood trees for foreign chip mills is like cutting the sails to make the ship lighter. I expect the US paper industry to ( pardon the expression ) fold within the next couple of years. IMHO

What does this have to do with the POG? Maybe nothing, but the POG should firm up against the price of timber land during the next cyclic low of wood product prices. IMHO

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:13 - ID#377196)
Allen (USA) -GO GOLD
If what you say is correct and production plants close this will mean
fewer goods to buy. So there could be a
scramble for goods before this happens driving prices higher. Do you think this plant closing will cause higher or lower prices?

It would seem a case of more dollars chasing fewer goods. What do
you think ?

If inflation is coming-gold will not be far behind.

There, I did it, the word gold in the text. Twice.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:13 - ID#350179)
Finger pointing
Yes, no Hashimoto

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:16 - ID#347267)
Good for Lott!
Lott after the Prez for the Taiwan/China snafu:

Go Gold!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:21 - ID#350179)
I'll bet they were gold.
Russia complains of customs violations by Americans

Finally PM related ( sort of )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:32 - ID#269207)
BOO!!! BOO!!! damnit!! you quit your peekin, then you won' get BOOED!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:33 - ID#347457)
Eureka! I'll be finally filthy rich!
OK you guys ( especially from down-under ) . I think I've finally figured it out how to make money in this market. Anybody cares to join introducing this money making opportunity in the US ? ;- )

Subject: ( True ) Australian Scam

True Story -

Australian Police have been unable

to recommend a prosecution for the

following scam:

A company takes out a newspaper advertisement claiming to be able to

supply imported hard core pornographic videos. As their prices seem

reasonable, people place orders and make payments via check.

After several weeks, the company writes back explaining that under the

present law they are unable to supply the materials and do not wish to

be prosecuted. So they return their customers' money in the form of a

company check.

However, due to the name of the company, few people ever bother to

present these to their banks. The name of the company:

'The Anal Sex and Fetish Perversion Company'.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:36 - ID#347267)
GOLD again!
I LIKES it when gold stocks are up and all the ANALYSTS?? wonder why!!!

I LIKES the 5 day action of the XAU!!!^XAU&d=5d

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:36 - ID#39862)
Vronsky & rhody........... golden eagle International

rhody ( @ crazytimes: Golden Eagle has done no drilling, just test pits. )

What exactly is the stage of gold evaluation for this project ? If, as rhody points out, there has been no drilling and only test pits, then there can be NO MEASURED RESOURCE, and hence NO PROVEN RESERVE - ie a fraud looms on the horizon !

Has a measured resource been defined, and if so who has carried out an independent assessment, and has a report been published ?

The figures quoted by GEI ( 55 million tonnes + ) are indeed interesting if they are true. However, one must be realistic - a resource is a resource and there are clear discriminations between an inferred, indicated and measured resources. A resource does not consititute a reserve. It is the mineable reserve that has monetary value, and that is totaly conditional on the feasibility study forming the basis of a bankable document.

It is common practice for a bank to appoint an independent group to compile the feasibility document, particular with junior explorers involved.

Remember Pegasus and Mount Todd in the NT of Australia. BIG "apparent" reserve, but I now hear that there is a legal case against the group who compiled the feasibility study.

It is important that a project is reported in context, by Geologists. Vronsky are you a Geologist or a promoter ?

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo...............

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:38 - ID#401460)




Linda Tripp knows who wrote the talking points Monica Lewinsky handed her in January, Tripp pal Lucianne Goldberg revealed
Tuesday afternoon.

"She knows who wrote them," Goldberg told the DRUDGE REPORT and radio station listeners in Los Angeles on KIEV-AM. "She's
known from the start."

When asked about a scenario that has a wired Tripp questioning Lewinsky about the talking points during an FBI sting at the
RITZ-CARLTON in Virginia, Goldberg reveled: "Linda knows who wrote them."

Goldberg offered no elaboration.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:47 - ID#39862)
" I know exactly what is going to happen"........ G Soros

"Instability is cumulative, so that the eventual breakdown of freely floating exchanges is ensured."

"...since money is "imaginal" it is susceptible to hermetic manipulation....."

"Money that can be manipulated imagistically because money itself is image..."

Soros tells us this: "Naturally I know exactly what is going to happen, but I won't tell." ( George Soros, January 14th, Die Zeit, Hamburg, Germany -Reuters ) Is he

So, who was the guy who bought the gold from Korea, who in turn had bought it from Australia........

Politicians who sell gold have already sold their soul..... it's all got to do with perceptions and who owns who. Who "owns" the politicians ?

There is a syndicate in Melbourne who have a friend in Canberra....

(Tue Jul 07 1998 18:55 - ID#426220)
Dow Jones Still In Distribution; Investors Still Enamored With Market

Market maven Clif Droke considers we are still in the terminal phase of
the 20-year-old bull market in equities. He asserts, "How much longer
it will last before completing we won't venture to guess, but it could
happen at any time now."

"Nevertheless, we continue to "bite the bullet" and hold firm to our assertion that the bull market is technically over and is merely distributing prior to the inevitable collapse. Admittedly, this is a brave and potentially foolhardy stance, especially considering that market analysts of greater stature than us are predicting one final run to new all-time highs in the indexes before the long-overdue crash."

"In what one analyst called a "leveraged Ponzi scheme," the IMF loaned Japan a $125 billion "stimulus" package designed to bail out their troubled financial sector."

"It won't be long until all of these problems begin manifesting in the general economy the stock market to a large degree. When it does, the facade of economic growth and prosperity that we have enjoyed for so long will finally be stripped away and the true condition of our country will be revealed. Will you be prepared?"

Remember to delete the extra "en" letters in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:03 - ID#287186)
retailers hereabouts are already smelling dead fish
re my post of 0:00 this morning...
My prognostications may be several months late.
Sales are already slower than normal for this time of year.
I think Y2K news is starting to affect optional spending.
This Friday the 700 club will have a Y2K special program.
Maybe little gold bears would sell - then again maybe folks would consider them frivolous since they don't believe in gold anymore as an investment ( 'till the stampede starts in the paper markets ) .

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:03 - ID#39857)
That group in Melbourne got a mate in the RBA as well.
Do you reckon they throw bones at Quantum or are they an
elite team of mind-readers fighting evil forces.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:10 - ID#287280)
Haggis-re: Soros--Here is an interesting puzzle 

Following a thread, I landed in this document on this site:

That Soros is involved with Bosnia is not surprising; that the project should be 'interested' in the ECB is not surprising. What IS puzzling is the Denmarkproperty inclusion. The page has, by admission, been edited. Why then was the Denmark reference left on the page? Interesting, yes? {:- )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:19 - ID#217239)
@Squirrel, Dave's telling me
that if the movie's too scary, I shouldn't watch. Can't look at any more news, nor read your and Allen's posts till a little BOO won't scare me.

No more! Only good news the rest of the day. Got any?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:23 - ID#228128)
Princeton Economics on Y2K and gold
The Y2K Problem
Part II
By Martin A. Armstrong
Princeton Economic Institute
Copyright July 6th, 1998

The issue of the Y2K problem is being blown way out of proportion giving
rise to some of the strangest doom-and-gloom scenarios known to man.
There is certainly an excessive focus upon the US that makes it sound
that the US has a monopoly on Y2K problems. Some comments have claimed
that the Y2K will lead to a barter system and that a massive depression
is about to be unleashed. Banks will collapse and money will become
worthless, while everyone starves to death. Much of these types of
comments come from those who are still obsessed with gold who in one way
or another pray for a world collapse and the end of civilization just so
their precious metal will rise in value.

To a large extent, these sorts of comments come from those who have
missed the point that investment cycles exist in every sector on a
rotating basis. Sometimes bonds are the best investment while real
estate, stocks and commodities are appropriate during subsequent
periods. No single investment ever moves straight up or down forever.
Therefore, the scare tactics of those who pray for world destruction are
perhaps due to the fact that they have missed just about every potential
to profit from a variety of investment cycles for the past 18 years.
Their pain comes from the sheer lack of understanding for the role of
money itself within society.

Monetary systems based upon gold have NEVER prevented inflation nor have
they prevented the collapse of governments. Such trends have ALWAYS been
determined by government fiscal policies regardless of the monetary
system in use at the time. The gold standard was in place during the
1920s and it too failed to prevent a depression when nature turned the
Midwest into a dust bowl sending unemployment up to 25% in the United
States ( agriculture accounted for 40% of the US civil work force in
1929 ) .

The absurdity of such remarks is unquestionable. The Y2K problem is FAR
worse around the world than it is in the United States. In Europe, for
example, everyone is still trying to figure out how to cope with
changing the monetary system while simultaneously expanding the number
of EC members. Throw in the Y2K problem and the real chaos does begin to
surface. The most difficult problems for the transition ahead appear to
reside more so in Europe than in the United States.

There is also a significant difference between government and private
sector preparation for the Y2K problem. While there is no doubt that the
primary problem exists within the embedded systems ( programs burned into
chips ) , the software side appears to be mostly under control with the
exception of very old programs written for very old mainframes still in
use within governments around the world.

The more serious issue remains the power grids. The primary focus within
the US is now being targeted to the major urban centers. Blackouts are
much more likely to take place within the rural areas in most nations.
Bob Bennett has helped to focus attention on Y2K in order to promote
rapid change. While at worst we may be faced with a 60% non-compliant
rate among utilities, the pressure for action is also likely to insure
that the power grids will achieve compliance within a reasonable time
frame not much beyond January 1st, 2000.
In some cases, the question of malfunctioning chips is like shooting in
the dark. One may not know the full extent of the problem until it
happens. Nonetheless, the United States is far ahead of just about
everyone in moving toward Y2K compliance. From a financial market
perspective, instead of a major collapse of all financial institutions,
we may find a greater trend toward the US dollar through a concentration
of capital. While this will tend to have a deflationary effect within
the US economy, simultaneously it will tend to produce an inflationary
affect outside the United States.

Despite the fact that this problem is being blown out of proportion in
terms of the end of the world on January 1st, 2000, mankind will not
simply roll over and give up. Civilization will NOT return to the dark
ages of barter. Even if the darkest scenarios were true, a return to a
barter system would cause worldwide geopolitical unrest and World War
III. Therefore, those who are hailing Y2K as the excuse to rush out and
buy gold won't have anything to spend their profits on, thus causing the
purchasing power of even gold to collapse.

Nevertheless, markets and economies move on anticipation. If this insane
end-of-the-world nonsense gains in main stream press, it is capable of
causing a panic in goods. Such a panic would cause inflation even with
the United States with a much greater degree of inflation in other world
economies. The primary reason such a trend would take place has to do
with the fact that given a strong dollar, a hoarding of goods within the
US would lead to greater inflation in world commodity markets in
general. Therefore, if commodities rise in value in dollar terms while
the dollar also rises, then such a situation would indeed spark a new
age of inflationary pressures going into 2000.

While we do see that a bull market for gold is likely leading into 2003
or perhaps even into 2007, we do NOT see that such a trend requires the
end of the world, merely a normal shift in investment strategies. We do
see that the Y2K problem could push Russia into financial chaos and in
this case there is little that can be done. It is far more likely that a
Russian revolution may develop over Y2K problems than the collapse of
western civilization as a whole. We do recommend that you call your bank
and if they are NOT 2000 compliant, then switch to one that is. Don?
forget, if a bank is NOT Y2K compliant, it may also not be able to cope
with its impact insofar as the credit card collection process either.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:26 - ID#45173)
Thx all for the heart-felt well wishes! I hit the road tonight with this on gold
Keep in mind while you're reading this the sums that many have made in the stock market in the last 18 years, the losses that many suffered in gold in the past 18 years, and the volume of negative publicity gold has received in the last few months.

The problem with apes is that they can't think independently. You can.

gold = banana
stock market = cold water

Primate Group Thinking Experiment
by Scott Sing

Start with a cage containing five apes. In the cage, hang a banana on a
string and put stairs under it. Before long, an ape will go to the stairs
and start to climb towards the Banana. As soon as he touches the stairs,
spray all of the apes with cold water. After a while, another ape makes an
attempt with the same result-all the apes are sprayed with cold water.

Turn off the cold water.

If, later, another ape tries to climb the stairs, the other apes will try
to prevent it even though no water sprays them.

Now, remove one ape from the cage and replace it with a new one. The New
ape sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his horror, all of
the other apes attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that
if he tries to climb the stairs, he will be assaulted.

Next, remove another of the original five apes and replace it with a New one.

The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous Newcomer
takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm.

Again, replace a third original ape with a new one. The new one makes it to
the stairs and is attacked as well.

Two of the four apes that beat him have no idea why they were not permitted
to climb the stairs, or why they are participating in the beating of the

After replacing the fourth and fifth original apes, all the apes which have
been sprayed with cold water have been replaced. Nevertheless, no ape ever
again approaches the stairs. Why not?

"Because that's the way it's always been around here."

Sound familiar?


(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:30 - ID#288369)
@Lord Disney..........
Comforted to know you're back on board the H.M.S. Harmony. One more eighth and I'm at break even on a BOATLOAD of Rangy. Oh, Happy Day! Just hand me an oar mate. GO GOLDBUGS!!!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:31 - ID#390415)
Great story.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:34 - ID#57232)
Linda Tripp knows talking points
All: More from Matt Drudge. I think this refers to a written note that Monica Lewinsky either gave or showed to Linda Tripp regarding what Monica was to do if asked about her reputed affair with BC. If the note is in 'safe' hands, ie Kenneth Starr's, someone has perjured himself. Probably not that lawyer associate of BC's who got ML a job. He is to smart to leave a paper trail. I forgot his name.

This looks hot.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:35 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

An interesting situation has developed in that on the last three small upmoves, gold has three successively lower highs and the XAU has three successively higher highs.

Last week, the XAU rallied up to its downtrend line on the daily chart and then fell back. Today, the XAU broke through the daily downtrend it has been in since April. Gold should follow.

The South African gold continue to lead, another historic positive.

The major moving averages for gold are both below $300, so it won't take much of a push to move above then and turn them upwards.

The Vancouver Stock Exchange Index lost another 5+ points today, which shows the exploration companies still aren't benefitting from a slightly higher gold price.

Also, stocks such as Bema, Arizona Star, Greenstone Resources, and Golden Star all lost ground today. Strange business.

Since the upturn three weeks ago, I've been looking for a successful break above $300 and a move to new highs for the year. I'm still holding to that perspective.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:36 - ID#288369)
Vaya con Dios, mi amigo.....y hasta luego....SALUD!!! ( Gulp )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:40 - ID#20748)
How to spend a sleepless night.
ECB due to announce decision on minimum resreves tomorrow. Read both stories. The first story is not as bad as the headline suggests. Nonetheless guaranteed to keep you awake.>

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:42 - ID#20748)
The url again>

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:44 - ID#20748)
Third attempt
Go to Bloomberg and click on EMU Update.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:53 - ID#433172)
Probably redundant to wish you luck, but GOOD LUCK. Pockets full. Wagon loads. Boxcar loads. Boat loads.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:56 - ID#210235)
NJ, the machine is double posting your URL
It works fine. But the reader has to cut and paste after the letters html. ( But verry scarrry. Here's to another sleepless night!

And I wasn't going to look any more. Hah! )

I just tried to post it and it doubled up for me too on Preview.

Wierd new bug at Kitco?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:56 - ID#287186)
Consumer confidence for June was up
But what do the sheople know -
they are the same ones who are buying more stocks!>

Business confidence stays on a downer
( 2nd qtr ought to be out in a week or two )

LEADING INDICATORS. Seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index fell in May. The most significant decrease is manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials.
Perhaps I should subscribe to get more current info faster but the fee is $250 per year.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 19:58 - ID#210235)
@Aragorn of Arathorn
You going to New Orleans in October by any chance?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:03 - ID#287186)
Let's try this again
Both business and consumer confidence links at:
and if that fails then
and click on the Consumer Confidence Index link to get to both links.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:05 - ID#432157)

Will the EMU be smart enough to realize the true value ,Only GOD knows this and I think at this time HE may need our HELP .A moment of prayer PLEASE

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:26 - ID#287186)
For those who are convinced there are crazed squirrels in the attic
Please call 'em to take me away heh heh - yet!
See my post on Mon Jul 06 1998 13:51 which includes:
"Not 'till we get kicked in the chest will we start doing things differently."

Thank you Auric for
"They're Coming to Take Me Away" Lyrics at:

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:27 - ID#288295)
geoffs, Prometheus, NJ
I'm posting this link again, so you can see who has the upper hand in voting on the gold - EMU issue. The Germans and French rule, and they are both very pro-gold.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:32 - ID#287186)
Good news - Promey wants good news!
The monsoons have arrived in Colorado - a week early.
Finally a break in this hot ( in the high 70's ) dry weather.
( Eat your hearts out you lowlanders! )
Only got up into the sixties today - now it's raining again.
The crops and the bees that supply me honey need it.
Happy sticky, syrupy, GOLDEN!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:36 - ID#347267)
I LIKES Short term, Intermediate term ( Positive ) , and Long term ( turning positive ) Gold Forecaster Charts. I also LIKES it whem them Bollinger Bands gets narrow like at long term lows!!!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:38 - ID#347267)
One more thing:
I also LIKES it when most all the Kitcoites, they is afeared to say anythin positive 'bout GOLD!!!

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:41 - ID#295111)
Peter Ward of Lehman Bros.
Peter Ward is truly one of the real ASS HOLES of creation....

Tuesday July 7, 1:24 pm Eastern Time

N. America gold shares up, but earnings seen shaky

NEW YORK, July 7 ( Reuters ) - North American gold stocks rose Tuesday but analysts see few signs of a turnaround from
depressed levels, with upcoming earnings expected to be tarnished by the yellow metal's lackluster performance.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange index of North American gold and silver shares ( ^XAU - news ) was up 3.46 percent at
midday, easily outstripping the Dow industrials and other leading stock indices.

The gold and silver index was being led higher by Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG.TO - news ) and Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM -
news ) , analysts said. Placer was up C$0.70 at C$17.15, while Newmont gained 8/16 to 23-1/16.

``There is no news I am aware of,'' said Peter Ward, precious metals analyst at Lehman Brothers. ``I think we are stuck in a
trading range here for a while in gold and ( gold ) stocks.''

With bullion hovering at around $295 per ounce, off from $343 a year ago, gold company earnings will be generally ``down
pretty significantly'' from a year ago, Ward said.

Earnings are directly tied to the price of the commodity.

Earnings at Barrick Gold ( ABX.TO - news; ABX - news ) are expected to increase because the company hedged forward
metal sales, Ward said, but Newmont's earnings ``could be down pretty significantly.''

Barrick ADRs were up 10/16 at 19-3/16. Coeur D'Alene ( CDE - news ) gained 5/8 to 7-1/4, while Kinross Gold ( KGC -
news ) rose 1/4 to 3-3/8.

Leo Larkin, an analyst who follows gold stocks at Standard & Poor's, said low inflation was keeping gold prices depressed.
``There is not an awful lot of incentive to buy it at this point,'' he said.

An analyst at J.B. Weere said the Philadelphia exchange gold and silver index has been volatile and today's gains were within
the recent trading range, itself near historic lows.

``There is not a good risk/return scenario in gold stocks,'' the analyst said.

Investors are unsure what role gold will play in the new European central bank, and the outlook for the metal's price in general
is unclear.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:43 - ID#347267)
That is 'ceptin the Preacher and a few others, of course, they is ahangin tough. I'm wiv 'em till ( big if ) XAU breaks January lows!!!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:49 - ID#210114)
Trying to say something positive.
Last week some guy ( forgot his name ) was on Business News Nightly and argued that relative to stocks, commodities were severely undervalued. This means stocks will go down or commodities and gold will go up.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:49 - ID#224363)
Re-post of Bloomberg EMU Update
I think this is a fairly well balanced look at the issue of EMU gold reserves. I guess we will see which route they take.

Gold Faces Threat as European Central Bankers Mull Sales Policy

Frankfurt, July 7 ( Bloomberg ) -- Gold investors, already

smarting from a 30 percent price drop since 1996, could get a

jolt as soon as tomorrow if the new European Central Bank clears

the way for more gold sales by its 11 member nations.

The stakes are huge: The ECB will probably only keep about

10 percent to 15 percent of the members' $121 billion in gold

reserves when it takes control of monetary policy in January.

That would leave almost 12,000 metric tons of gold in regional

bank vaults, or the equivalent of five years of output from the

world's gold mines.

Unless the ECB takes control of all the gold, including the

regional reserves, member nations could decide to sell their

holdings, driving down prices already languishing below $300 an

ounce and close to the lowest in 18 years. Gold in London

recently traded at $295.05 an ounce.

``The market is scared of random central bank sales,'' said

Graham French, who manages about $400 million in resource equity

funds for M&G Investment Management in London. ``People are now

trying to figure out if the ECB will coordinate sales -- that

would remove the uncertainty weighing on gold.''

To be sure, the new central bank may not decide its gold

policy today or tomorrow, though ECB President Wim Duisenberg

said last week that setting a policy is at the top of the bank's

agenda when it meets today in Frankfurt. A press conference is

scheduled for tomorrow at 11 a.m. local time.

Control Policy

As of January, the ECB takes charge of monetary policy for

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium,

Luxembourg, Finland, Austria, Ireland and Portugal.

``It could still take until September before the gold issue

is settled because they have so many monetary issues to deal

with,'' said Kamal Naqvi, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie

Equities Ltd. in London. ``If they do say something today or

tomorrow, it will take an absolute freeze on gold sales to really

move the market up.''

Even though gold isn't used to back currencies anymore, some

analysts doubt that Europe's central banks will do anything to

reduce the value of their gold reserves.

``The ECB and its members will not be sellers of gold,''

said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer for LFG Bullion

Services in Chicago. ``From a traditional sense, gold has been a

major part of the reserves of European countries. For them to

sell would weaken their currencies.''

Still, concern about sending gold prices lower and devaluing

reserves hasn't stopped other central banks from selling gold

during the past two years, including ECB members The Netherlands

and Belgium.

``The big question is not how much gold the ECB itself will

hold, but what happens to the rest of it,'' said Urs Frei, head

of precious metals trading at Credit Agricole Indosuez in Geneva.

If the ECB asserts power over sales, prices are likely to rise,

he said. If banks can sell at will, prices likely will fall.

Unloading Gold

So far, several central banks, including Australia and

Argentina, have unloaded big chunks of their gold reserves in

favor of better-paying assets, such as government bonds.

Those sales contributed to a 22 percent drop last year in

gold prices, which have lingered below $300 as the European Union

debated the fate of its own reserves of the precious metal. Gold

reached an 18-year low of $276.75 an ounce in January.

Both the Australians and the Argentineans said they prefer

to hold government bonds, which offer better returns in an era

when gold is no longer needed as a hedge against rising prices.

Even so, Germany and France, the world's second- and third-

largest gold holders behind the U.S., are expected to argue for

strict control over reserve sales.

Both countries experienced hyperinflation and two world wars

earlier in this century, which has kept their finance officials

believing gold should be held as an asset of last resort, to be

used in times of political an economic instability.

The Dutch and Belgians, on the other hand, have together

sold about 800 tons of gold reserves since 1996, and are seen as

less likely to defend the metal's place in the ECB.

``Some countries will be well ahead of others in thinking of

making sales over the next few years, and they are the ones the

ECB has to keep in mind saying something on gold,'' said Kamal

Naqvi, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Equities Ltd. in


(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:50 - ID#39828)
Tax Haven of Gold Miners
What has the Bahamas ever done for the world.? So why is it pegged
to the $US.? Helpppp. Target painted. Holding fire.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:51 - ID#210114)
All you ever wanted to know about............

The Gold Market
by J. Orlin Grabbe

The gold market is a unique 24-hour-a-day market for the purchase or sale of one of history's longest-valued commodities. What gives the market its special character is the use of gold simultaneously as industrial commodity, as decoration ( jewelry ) , and as a monetary asset. To understand the gold market, it is important to understand the latter function. Because gold has often formed a component of the local money supply, its history is intertwined with national and central bank politics.

Gold as Money

Gold is only one of many commodities that over the years have served as money--as a medium of exchange--in international trade and financial transactions. Such commodities have frequently varied. In many local communities ( including nation-states ) , the most widely used commodity, or the product most traded with outsiders, has often functioned as money. In the Oregon territory from 1830 to 1840, for example, beaver skins were a customary medium of exchange. Then, as the population shifted from fur trapping to farming, wheat became the chief form of money, and from 1840 to 1848 promissory notes were made payable in so many bushels of wheat. Later, with the California gold discoveries in 1848, the Oregon legislature repealed the law making wheat legal tender, and proclaimed that thereafter only gold and silver were to be used to settle taxes and debts. For similar reasons, tobacco long served as the principal currency in Virginia. When the Virginia Company imported 150 "young and uncorrupt girls" as wives for the settlers in 1620 and 1621, the price per wife was initially 100 pounds of tobacco--later climbing to 150 pounds.

Only a few currencies, however, have had long-run durability as well as multi-territorial acceptability. Silver and gold are two of these. Roughly speaking, from the time of Columbus' discovery of America in 1492 to the California gold discovery in 1848, silver dominated in common circulation in America and Europe, while gold came into dominance following the Californian and Australian gold discoveries ( see Chapter 8 in J. Laurence, The History of Bimetallism in the United States, D. Appleton and Company, 1901 ) . Under the rule of the British Empire, the British pound sterling and the gold standard were adopted in much of the world. Toward the end of World War Two, the U.S. dollar and gold became the principal international reserve assets under the Bretton Woods agreement--a market position the U.S. dollar and gold have maintained despite the de facto dissolution of that system in the early 1970s.

The Post-WW2 Politics of Gold

Under the Bretton Woods Agreement forged at the Mt.Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in 1944, each member of the newly created International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed to establish a par value for its currency, and to maintain the exchange rate for its currency within 1 percent of par value. In practice, since the principal reserve currency would be the U.S. dollar, this meant that other countries would peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, and--once convertibility was restored--would buy and sell U.S. dollars to keep market exchange rates within the 1 percent band around par value. The United States, meanwhile, separately agreed to buy gold from or sell gold to foreign official monetary authorities at $35 per ounce in settlement of international financial transactions. The U.S. dollar was thus pegged to gold, and any other currency pegged to the dollar was indirectly pegged to gold at a price determined by its par value.

What does it mean to fix the price ( the exchange value ) ofa currency or a commodity like gold? If no trading other than with official authorities is allowed ( as when something is "inconvertible" ) , then fixing the price is easy. The central bank or exchange authority simply says the price is "X" and no one can say differently. If you want to trade gold for dollars, you have to deal with the central bank, and you have to trade at central bank prices. The central bank may in fact even refuse to trade with you, but it can still maintain the lawyerly notion that the exchange rate is "fixed." ( Such a refusal, of course, will only lead to black market trading outside official channels. ) If, however, free trade is allowed, fixing the price requires a great deal more. The price can be fixed only by altering either the supply of or the demand for the asset. For example, if you wanted to fix the price of gold at $35 per ounce, you could only do so by being willing and able to supply unlimited amounts of gold to the market to drive the price back down to $35 per ounce whenever there would otherwise be excessdemand at that price, or to purchase unlimited amounts of gold from the market to drive the price back up to $35 per ounce whenever there would otherwise be excess supply at that price.

In order to peg the price of gold you would thus need two things: a large stock of gold to supply to the market whenever there is a tendency for the market price of gold to go up, and a large stock of dollars with which to purchase gold whenever there is a tendency for the market price of gold to go down. No problem. The U.S. had plenty of gold--about 60 percent of the world's stock. And, naturally, it also had plenty of dollars, which could be created with the stroke of a pen.

After the Bretton Woods Agreement, the price of gold remained uncontroversial for the next decade. But around 1960 the private market price of gold began to show a persistant tendency to rise above its official price of $35/ounce. So, in the fall of 1960, the United States joined with the central banks of the Common Market countries as well as with Great Britain and Switzerland to intervene in the private market for gold. If the private market price did not rise above $35 per ounce, it was felt, the Bretton Woods price was de facto the correct price, and in addition no one could complain if dollars were not exchangeable for gold. This coordinated intervention, which involved maintaining the gold price within a narrow range around $35 per ounce, became formalized a year later as the gold pool. Since London was the center of world gold trading, the pool was managed by the Bank of England, which intervened in the private market via the daily gold price fixing at N. M. Rothschild.

The London Gold Fixing

In its current form, the London gold price fixing takesplace twice each business day, at 10:30 A.M. and 3:00 P.M. in the "fixing room" of the merchant banking firm of N. M. Rothschild. Five individuals, one each from five major gold-trading firms, are involved in the fixing. The firms represented are Mocatta & Goldsmid, a trading arm of Standard Chartered Bank; Sharps Pixley, a dealer owned by Deutsche Bank; N. M. Rothschild & Sons, whose representative acts as the auctioneer; Republic-Mase, a bullion subsidiary of Republic Bank; and Samuel Montagu, a merchant banking subsidiary of Midland Bank ( owned by HSBC ) . Each representative at the fixing keeps an open phone line to his firm's trading room. Each trading room in turn has buy and sell orders, at various prices, from customers located all over the world. In addition, there are customers with no existing buy or sell orders who keep an open line to a trading room in touch with the fixing and who may decide to buy or sell depending on what price is announced. The N. M. Rothschild representative announces a price at which trading will begin. Each of the five individuals then confers with his trading room, and the trading room tallies up supply and demand--in terms of 400-ounce bars-- from orders originating around the world. In a few minutes, each firm has determined if it is a net buyer or seller of gold. If there is excess supply or demand a new price is announced, but no orders are filled until an equilibrium price is determined. The equilibrium price, at which supply equals demand, is referred to as the "fixing price." The A.M. and P.M. fixing prices are published daily in major newspapers.

Even though immediately before and after a fixing gold trading will continue at prices that may vary from the fixing price, the fixing price is an important benchmark in the gold market because much of the daily trading volume goes through at the fixing price. Hence some central banks value their gold at an average of daily fixing prices, and industrial customers often have contracts with their suppliers written in terms of the fixing price. Since a fixing price represents temporary equilibrium for a large volume of trading, it may be subject to less "noise" than are trading prices at other times of the day. Usually the equilibrium fixing price is found rapidly, but sometimes it takes twenty to thirty tries. Once in October 1979, with supply and demand fluctuating rapidly from moment to moment, the afternoon fixing in London lasted an hour and thirty-nine minutes.

The practice of fixing the gold price began in 1919. It continued until 1939, when the London gold market was closed as a result of war. The market was reopened in 1954. When the central bank gold pool began officially in 1961, the Bank of England--as agent for the pool--maintained an open phone line with N. M. Rothschild during the morning fixing ( there was as yet no afternoon fixing ) . If it appeared that a fixing price would be established that was above $35.20 or below $34.80, the Bank of England ( as agent ) became a seller or buyer of gold in an amount sufficient to ensure that the fixing price remained within the prescribed bands.

Gold and European Union

While the gold pool held down the private market price of gold, gold politics took a new turn in the international arena. This was related to the fact that European countries, which had complained of a "dollar shortage" in the 1950s, where now complaining of a "dollar glut." They were accumulating too many dollar reserves. Although it was actually Germany that was running the greatest surplus and accumulating the most dollar reserves in the early 1960s, it was France under the leadership of Charles de Gaulle that made the most noise about it. During World War II, in conversations with Jean Monnet, de Gaulle had supported the notion of a united Europe--but a Europe, he insisted, under the leadership of France. After the war, France had opposed the American plan for German rearmament even in the context of European defense. France had been induced to agree, however, through Marshall Plan aid, which France was not inclined to refuse after it became embroiled in the Indo-China War. But now, in the 1960s, de Gaulle's vision of France as a leading world power led him to withdraw from NATO because NATO was a U.S.-dominated military alliance. It also led him to oppose Bretton Woods, because the international monetary system was organized with the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.

In the early 1960s there was, however, no realisticalternative to the dollar as a reserve asset, if one wanted tokeep reserves in a form that both would bear interest andcould be traded internationally. Official dollar-reserveholders not only were made exempt from the interestceilings of the Federal Reserve's Regulation Q for their deposits in New York but also began as a regular practiceto hold dollars in the eurodollar market--a free market where interest rates found their own level. Prior to 1965,central banks were the largest suppliers of dollars to the euromarket. Thus dollar reserve holders received acompetitive return on their dollar assets, and the United States gained no special benefit from the use of the dollar as a reserve asset.

Nevertheless, de Gaulle's stance on gold made domestic political sense, and in February 1965, in a well-publicized speech, he said: "We hold as necessary that international exchange be established . . . on an indisputable monetary base that does not carry the mark of any particular country. What base? In truth, one does not see how in this respect it can have any criterion, any standard, other than gold. Eh! Yes, gold, which does not change in nature, which is made indifferently into bars, ingots and coins, which does not have any nationality, which is held eternally and universally. . . ." By the "mark of any particular country" he had in mind the United States, which announced the Foreign Credit Restraint Program about a week later, in part as a direct response to de Gaulle's speech. France stepped up its purchases of gold from the U.S. Treasury and in June 1967, when the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War led to a large increase in the demand for gold, withdrew from the gold pool.

The Two-Tier System

Then in November 1967, the British pound sterling was devalued from its par value of $2.80 to $2.40. Those holding sterling reserves took a 14.3 percent capital loss in dollar terms. This raised the question of the exchange rate of the other reserve assets: if the dollar was to be devalued with respect to gold, a capital gain in dollar terms could be made by holding gold. Therefore demand for gold rose and, as it did, gold pool sales in the private market to hold down the price were so large that month that the U.S. Air Force made an emergency airlift of gold from Fort Knox to London, and the floor of the weighing room at the Bank of England collapsed from the accumulated tonnage of gold bars.

In March 1968, the effort to control the private market price of gold was abandoned. A two-tier system began: official transactions in gold were insulated from the free market price. Central banks would trade gold among themselves at $35 per ounce but would not trade with the private market. The private market could trade at the equilibrium market price and there would be no official intervention. The price immediately jumped to $43 per ounce, but by the end of 1969 it was back at $35. The two-tier system would be abandoned in November 1973, after the emergence of floating exchange rates and the de facto dissolution of the Bretton Woods agreement. By then the price had reached $100 per ounce.

When the gold pool was disbanded and the two-tier system began in March 1968, there was a two-week period during which the London gold market was forceably closed by British authorities. A number of important changes took place during those two weeks. South Africa as a country was the single largest supplier of gold and had for years marketed the sale of its gold through London, with the Bank of England acting as agent for the South African Reserve Bank. With the breakdown of the gold pool, South Africa was no longer assured of steady central bank demand, and--with the London market temporarily closed--the three major Swiss banks ( Swiss Bank Corporation, Swiss Credit Bank, and Union Bank of Switzerland ) formed their own gold pool and persuaded South Africa to market through Zurich.

In 1972, the second major country supplier of gold, the Soviet Union, also began to market through Zurich. In 1921, V. I. Lenin had written, "sell [gold] at the highest price, buy goods with it at the lowest price." Since the Soviet ruble was not convertible, the Soviet Union used gold sales as one major source of its earnings of Western currencies, and in the 1950s and 1960s sold gold through the Moscow Narodny in London ( a bank that had also provided dollar cover for the Soviets during the early days of the Cold War ) . In Zurich, the Soviet Union dealt gold via the Wozchod Handelsbank, a subsidiary of the Soviet Foreign Trade Bank, the Vneshtorgbank. ( In March 1985, the Soviet Union announced that the Wozchod would be closed because of gold-trading losses and would be replaced with a branch office of the Vneshtorgbank. The branch office, unlike the Wozchod, would not be required to publish information concerning operations. )

London, in order to stay competitive, subsequently turned itself more into a gold-trading center than a distribution center. When the London market reopened in March 1968 after the two-week "holiday," a second daily fixing ( the 3:00 P.M. fixing ) was added in order to overlap with U.S. trading hours, and the fixing price was switched to U.S. dollar terms from pound sterling terms. But by the 1980s, London's new role as a trading center had begun to be challenged by the Comex gold futures market in New York.

The SDR as "Paper Gold"

During the early years of the gold pool, it came to be believed that there was a deficiency of international reserves and that more reserves had to be created by legal fiat to enable reserve-holders to diversify out of the U.S. dollar and gold. In retrospect, this was a curious view of the world. The form in which reserves are held will ultimately always be determined on the basis of international competition. People will hold their wealth in the form of a particular asset only if they want to. If they do not have an economic incentive to desire a particular asset, no legal document will alter that fact. A particular currency will be attractive as a reserve asset if these four criteria exist: ( 1 ) an absence of exchange controls so people can spend, transfer, or exchange their reserves denominated in that currency when and where they want them; ( 2 ) an absence of applicable credit controls and taxes that would prevent assets denominated in the currency from bearing a competitive rate of return relative to other available assets; ( 3 ) political stability, in the sense that there is a lack of substantial risk that points ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) will change within or between government regimes; ( 4 ) a currency that is in sufficient use internationally to limit the costs of making transactions. These four points explain why, for example, the Swiss but not the French franc has been traditionally used as an international reserve asset.

Many felt that formal agreement on a new international reserve asset was nevertheless needed, if only to reduce political tension. And while France wanted to replace the dollar as a reserve asset, other nations were looking instead for a replacement for gold. The decision was made by the Group of Ten ( ten OECD nations with most of the voting rights in the IMF ) to create an artificial reserve asset that would be traded among central banks in settlement of reserves. The asset would be kept on the books of the IMF and would be called a Special Drawing Right ( SDR ) . In fact it was a new reserve asset, a type of artificial or "paper gold," but it was called a drawing right by concession to the French, who did not want it called a reserve asset.

The SDR was approved in July 1969, and the first "allocation" ( creation ) of SDRs was made in January l970. Overnight, countries gained more reserves at the IMF, because the IMF added new numbers to its accounts and called these numbers SDRs. The timing of the allocation was especially maladroit. In the previous four years the United States had been in the process of financing the Great Society domestic social programs of the Johnson administration as well as a war in Vietnam, and the world was being flooded with more reserves than it wanted at the going price of dollars for deutschemarks, yen, or gold. In the 1965 Economic Report of the President, Johnson wrote, in reference to his Great Society Program and the Vietnam War: "The Federal Reserve must be free to accommodate the expansion in 1965 and the years beyond 1965." U.S. money supply ( M1 ) growth, which had averaged 2.2 percent per year during the 1950s, inched upward slightly during the Kennedy years ( 2.9 percent per year for 1961- 1963 ) but changed materially under the Johnson administration. The growth rate of M1 averaged 4.6 percent per year over 1964-1967, then rose to 7.7 percent in 1968. Under the Nixon administration that followed, money growth initially slowed to 3.2 percent in 1969 and 5.2 percent in 1970, then accelerated to 7.1 percent for 1971-1973. The latter three years would encompass the breakdown of Bretton Woods, and would also have a material effect on the price of gold.

How Foreign Exchange Intervention Affects
the Money Supply

In order to succeed, a regime of fixed exchange rates ( and under Bretton Woods, rates for the major currencies werefixed in terms of their par values, which could not be casually altered ) requires coordinated economic policies, particularly monetary policies. If two different currencies trade at a fixed exchange rate and one currency is undervalued with respect to the other, the undervalued currency will be in excess demand. By the end of the 1960s both the deutschemark and the yen had become undervalued with respect to the U.S. dollar. Therefore the countries concerned ( Germany and Japan ) had two choices: either increase the supplies of their currencies to meet the excess demand or adjust the par values of their currencies upward enough to eliminate the excess demand.

As long as either country intervened in the market to maintain the par value of its currency with respect to the U.S. dollar, an increased supply of the domestic currency would take place automatically. To see why this is so, take the case of Germany. In order to keep the DM from increasing in value with respect to the U.S. dollar, the Bundesbank would have to intervene in the foreign exchange market to buy dollars. It would buy dollars by selling DM. The operation would increase the supply of DM in the market, driving down DM's relative value, and increase the demand for the dollar, driving up the dollar's relative value.

Any time the central bank intervenes in any market to buy or sell something, it potentially changes the domestic money supply. If the central bank buys foreign exchange, it does so by writing a check on itself--by giving credit to the seller. Central bank assets go up: the central bank now owns the foreign exchange. But central bank liabilities go up also, since the check represents a central bank liability. The seller of the foreign exchange or other asset will deposit the central bank's check, in payment for the value of the assets, in an account at a commercial bank. The commercial bank will in turn deposit the check in its account at the central bank. The commercial bank will now have more reserves, in the form of a deposit at the central bank. The bank can use the reserves to make more loans, and the money supply will expand by a multiple of the initial reserve increase.

Is there anything the German authorities can do to prevent the money- supply increase? Essentially not, as long as they attempt to maintain the fixed exchange rate. There is, however, an operation referred to as sterilization. Sterilization refers to the practice of offsetting any impact on the monetary base caused by foreign exchange intervention, by making reverse transactions in terms of domestic assets ( such as government bonds ) . For example, if the money base went up by DM4 billion because the central bank bought dollars in the foreign exchange market, a sterilization operation would involve selling DM4 billion worth of domestic assets to reduce central bank liabilities by an equal and offsetting amount. If the Bundesbank sold domestic assets, these would be paid for by checks drawn on the commercial banking system and reserves would disappear as the commercial banks' checking accounts were debited at the central bank.

However, the Bundesbank could not simultaneously engage in complete sterilization ( a complete offset ) and also maintain the fixed exchange rate. If there was no change in the supply of DM, the DM would continue to be undervalued with respect to the dollar, and foreign exchange traders would continue to exchange dollars for DM. During the course of 1971, the Bundesbank intervened so much that the German high-powered money base would have increased by 42 percent from foreign exchange intervention alone. About half this increase was offset by sterilization, but, even so, the increase in the money base--and eventually the money supply--by more than 20 percent in one year was enormous by German standards. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system began that year.

The Breakdown of Bretton Woods

It came about this way. From the end of World War II to about 1965, U.S. domestic monetary and fiscal policies were conducted in such a way as to be noninflationary. As world trade expanded during this period, the relative importance of Germany and Japan grew, so that by the end of the 1960s it was unreasonable to expect any system of international finance to endure without a consensus at least among the United States, Germany, and Japan. But after 1965, U.S. economic policy began to conflict with policies desired by Germany and Japan. In particular, the United States began a strong expansion, and moderate inflation, as a result of the Vietnam War and the Great Society program.

When it became obvious that the DM and yen were undervalued with respect to the dollar, the United States urged these two nations to revalue their currencies upward. Germany and Japan argued that the United States should revise its economic policy to be consistent with those in Germany and Japan as well as with previous U.S. policy. They wanted the United States to curb money- supply growth, tighten credit, and cut government spending. In the ensuing stalemate, the U.S. policy essentially followed the recommendations of a task force chaired by Gottfried Haberler. This was a policy of officially doing nothing and was commonly referred to as a policy of "benign neglect." If Germany and Japan chose to intervene to maintain their chosen par values, so be it. They would be allowed to accumulate dollar reserves until such time as they decided to change the par values of their currencies. That was the only alternative if the United States would not willingly change its policy. It was clearly understood at the time that a unilateral action on the part of the United States to devalue the dollar by increasing the dollar price of gold would be matched by similar European devaluations.

In April 1971, the Bundesbank took in $3 billion through foreign exchange intervention. On May 4 it took in $1 billion in the course of the day. On May 5 the Bundesbank took in $1 billion during the first hour of trading, then suspended intervention in the foreign exchange market. The DM was allowed to float upward. On August 15 the U.S. president, Nixon, suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold and announced a 10 percent tax on imports. The tax was temporary and was intended to signal the magnitude by which the United States thought the par values of the major European and Japanese currencies should be changed.

An attempt was made to keep the Bretton Woods system going by a revised agreement, the Smithsonian agreement, reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington on December 17-18, 1971. Called by President Nixon "the most important monetary agreement in the history of the world," it lasted only slightly more than a year, but beyond the 1972 U.S. presidential election. At the Smithsonian Institution the Group of Ten agreed on a realignment of currencies, an increase in the official price of gold to $38 per ounce, and expanded exchange rate bands of 2.25 percent around their new par values.

Over the period February 5-9, 1973, history repeated itself, with the Bundesbank taking in $5 billion in foreign exchange intervention. On February 12, exchange markets were closed in Europe and Japan, and the United States announced a 10 percent devaluation of the dollar. European countries and Japan allowed their currencies to float and, over the next month, a de facto regime of floating exchange rates began. The floating rate system has persisted to the present, with none of the five most widely traded currencies ( the dollar, the DM, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc ) in any way officially fixed in exchange value with respect to the others. ( Briefly, from October 1990 to September 1992, the DM and the British pound were nominally linked in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. ) With the breakdown of Bretton Woods, there began a slow dismantling of the array of controls that had been erected in its name. This included gold.

As part of the Jamaica agreement in 1976 ( which ludicrously proclaimed a "New International Economic Order" ) , IMF members agreed to demote the role of gold. But few central banks subsequently followed up this agreement in practice. One associated change that did come about, however, affected the private gold market in the United States. On January 2, 1975, after forty years of prohibition, U.S. citizens were allowed to purchase gold bullion legally. The Comex in New York subsequently became an important center for the trading of gold futures.

A few years ago I came across a copy of a speech by a well-known economist who was purporting to advise the government of Russia what they should to do stabilize the Russian money supply. The speech recommended they should "buy and sell gold on the London Metal Exchange." Which made about as much sense as recommending that Hillary Clinton enhance her income by buying and selling cattle futures at the NYMEX. Cattle futures aren't traded at the NYMEX, and gold isn't traded at the London Metal Exchange.

The London Bullion Market Association

The center of world gold trading is London, and the center of London gold and silver trading is the London Bullion Market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) . Members are classified into market making members, which include all of the participants in the twice-daily London gold fix described in Part 1, as well as other bullion houses ( for a total of 14 ) , and ordinary members, of which there are about 50. Most bullion houses act both as brokers for customers, and as primary dealers who hold positions of their own in order to profit from the bid/ask

(Tue Jul 07 1998 20:57 - ID#224363)
Is this a warning ???
TOKYO, July 8 ( Reuters ) - Japan Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Eisuke Sakakibara told Reuters on Wednesday he is greatly concerned about the yen's excessive weakness.

``I am greatly concerned about the excessive weakness of the yen,'' he said.

Sakakibara added: ``Japanese individual and institutional investors should be fully aware of the risks of the yen's rise in the future.''

** Is the above statement a subtle threat or more double-talk ??

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:02 - ID#210114)
Gold and ECB
Am inclined to think that the Germans and the French will demand that ECB will keep control over members gold reserves. Why would they want to see the value of their reserves driven down??

However, if not look out below!!

Live Long and Prosper.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:18 - ID#347267)
Peace in the Evening
Dedicated to Sharefin, our resident poet and magnificent sharer of information and the finer things of life; and the Tolerant one of the longish isle for his tolerance and forbearance [except for the current

( NOT FOR LONG- WE WILL HAVE ELECTIONS ) resident of OUR White House].

Peaceful Hour

Twilight in the Smokies, a time to sit and enjoy the cool evening breeze and the GOLDEN rays of sunset through the gap. Eatin' a salad of fresh lettuce and greens, fresh cukes, carrots, and tomatoes ( on the side, JD!! ) from the garden and sippin on a light blush wine. GOLDfinches,

Bluebirds and Doves eating together at the feeder. It don't git any bettern this!

Maybe the Doves are a sign of peace, but let us all be prepared during the coming year. My prayers are with ALL my new extended family.

Best Regards to All; Mountain Bear ( in a mellow mood )

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:23 - ID#244418)
Y2K RealVideos Online
See Y2K videos in RealVideo format at

The site is sponsored by a well-known paper company, the Federal Reserve Board. Among the videos are the presentations given at the recent conference on the global doomsday timebomb ( y2k ) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

P.S. Mozel please come back.

Got Mozel?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:35 - ID#255190)

Sounds like Martin has been hanging out at Kitco! This recent article is slightly more negative then his last 'no problemo' article. I suppose he will be sounding like Gary North in a year. He certainly needs to do a little better job of slashing people who don't bow and scrape in his presence.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:40 - ID#210127)
It may be all over except for the shouting

but on Friday nite, Louis Ruk@#$%^&* show will feature a discussion of the ECU and its impact on US financial markets...might be interesting, eh?
Where's Ted when you need him..


(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:40 - ID#224363)
$310 by end of the week
Since we all need the POG above $300 for the sake of our mental health, I'll go out on a limb and suggest $310 gold by Friday because:

1 ) EMU issues a positive ( or not so negative gold statement tomorrow )
2 ) Japan news conference at 5:30 PM ( their time ) strengthens the yen

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:43 - ID#215235)
150 years later; and it's shades of 1849!
I feel a GOLD RUSH about to commence. Yee, ha! I sure love the glitter of that stuff. Buy more. The moment has arrived.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:45 - ID#218253)
Tantalus Rex..........When you see these kind of comments out of so-called
main stream analysts, things are about to change. I'd like to see about another dozen or so comments just like that, then I would just buy indiscriminatly any and all, stocks, funds, bullion. It WILL be the Bottom.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:46 - ID#255190)
Martin, Martin, Martin
So in love with your self. Its truly painful to watch. Why would you, so expert and esteemed, bother to address the marginal idiots who spout 'end of the world' scenarios? Is it because you feel that no one will pay attention to you when things get really wild? Six months ago Y2K was not even on your radar screen. You were predicting years ahead without clue that this would be the biggest bomb to drop on our entire planet.

In your first article you lamely tried to assure your constituency that you knew what the problem was because you had a few experiences in your younger days. A bluff show indeed.

Now you seem to be sneaking in the back door talking about the possibly disruptions outside the USA and because of embedded systems, etc. Is it possible that your customers are ahead of you on this one? Have they been asking embarassing questions that you have no good answers for?

Your assertions about 'software being in hand' is ludicous to say the least. You must be living in a vacuum. Someday you will join the doom-sayers as this becomes the mainstream chant. Will you be up to erasing your tracks so that no one will know of your diliquency?

Then again, no one will care at that time because they will be just trying to survive. No one will recall your name.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:49 - ID#329186)
IDT(Princeton Economics on Y2K and Gold ID#228128 Tue Jul 07 19:23
Attention Martin A Armstrong

with all due respects to the above organisation and its economic forecast abilities, as far as Y2K being blown out of proportion goes surely the answer lies with our politicians taking the same line of On A need to know attitude becasue they "play the game of politics" .

If there is no need for the fear's expressed on the WWW why have the G8 not announced " There is absolutley no need to fear any Nuclear Misshaps Accidental or otherwise Russia & China ( in spite of their money woes ) have just been playing a game... of course they like all of us are fully aware of the problems and have the situation under full control.

Maybe the politicians are being bombarded with TOO much information that they find it hard ....? to decide ( but lets make a few bucks just in case we are around we have the Bunkers etc anyway )

If there is going to be civil unrest through panic is it not better to have this when communications,power and force of arms have a better chance of controlling such unrest or are we to wait until he last minute and expect the public to have any confidence in last ditch attemps to retain CONTROL.

Paragraph 4 ( absurdity of this paragraph is unquestionable.. ) sums up the above organisations thoughts "the problem is far worse around the world than it is in the united states" which implies the rest of the world does not matter or the rest of the worlds problems will not matter............... ( maybe they are downsizing and closing their other offices ) ....

Then, we have the more serious issues remains with the power grids....sorry the weakest link is Nuclear "Accidents or by design "IMHO
it has to be infinitely more difficult for Russia & China ( if and when they understand the full implications ) to motivate their populations when most are planning for the next bowl or Rice or Bortsch......
Add to this the new members of the NUKE club who may have cut corners on safety to ARRIVE

Paragraph 2 on investments, true they all go in cycles but they have beyond doubt been manipulated and it would be interesting to see if Ted Butler gets a reply to his letter to the Fed any case nobody is compelling others to purchase gold there are web sites where the reasons why it may be prudent to have some gold are given with good argument.

It is just more difficult to promote gold, when the masses are mesmarised with wall street ( the smart money moves out and the vortex sucks in the suckers ) the brokers do not care Short term memory keeps them going.........from Bubble to Bubble.

Well I guess with all the Knowledge & contacts of the above organisation I can expect an iminent announcement that there are no NUCLEAR worries and i have been over reacting.......mmmmmmmmmmm can't wait



(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:51 - ID#373284)
Mtn Bear, Namaste' What better than to protect what you are now enjoying. A
GIANT Reserva gulp to ya...enjoy your evening...My watch does not end until we take OUR house back...uh huh...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:53 - ID#43460)
Spock, re some guy talking on t.v.
Spock, you may have missed this post from Sunday. IMHO the fact that tony Brown is talking about gold means as much as all the other talking heads combined. But I may be wrong, just as I may be wrong in thinking I'm seeing the first traces of a farmland real estate selloff.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 21:53 - ID#210127)
@PMF and $310 gold this week...

Maybe so...It's moving up overseas tonight ...silver is holding steady...but gold seems to as though it is responding to ***something***..maybe so...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:00 - ID#373284)
that marty armstrong poison ivy leaguer , I was going to keep my mouth shut, but
we all know about that. Maybe it's marty's time of the month and his prince weighs a ton...a bitter root eh...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:10 - ID#113316)
Big reversal day for InterNet Stocks today. Hedge fund buddy of mine tried to short them today but could not get any stock. There will be blood on the streets tomorrow. Question is will it spill over to the markets in general? If it does, then my bet is the summer rally is over and the US financial markets are moving lower. Confluence with strength in the YEN and no bad news from EMU will mark beginning of strong upward move in the PMs. My further bet is this will be stronger and go further than anyone now expects. It could get violent!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:12 - ID#402148)
or other kind sole. Had hard drive crash and cannot locate URL for Golddigger discussion with BYron, Zev Head and Searle ( over on Silicon Investor ) ....would someone please send it to Thank you.


(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:35 - ID#267298)
All: Y2K Question
Does anyone recall ever seeing any estimate of how
many old main frame ( Cobol, PL/I, Assembler )
programs might still be running World Wide, published
by a usually reliable source ?

TIA & Go Gold...............

(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:38 - ID#373403)
Intelligent analysis request
Has anyone pinned down the reason for the excessive inverse correlation between the POG and the Dollar/Yen relationship? I understand about the Dollar increasing in value causing the Dollar POG to decrease but why so singularly in relation to the Yen?

(Tue Jul 07 1998 22:46 - ID#373284)
HopeFull, Namaste'
I have no clue what the URL is?!?!

(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:02 - ID#431200)
Royal Oak plans to hold a conference call on Wednesday, July 8, 1998 at 2:30 p.m. Toronto time (11:3

Royal Oak plans to hold a conference call on Wednesday, July 8, 1998 at 2:30 p.m. Toronto time ( 11:30 a.m. Pacific time ) to present an update on the status of operations at Kemess. Analysts, investors and the media are invited to call ( 416 ) 620-8863 ( quoting reservation No. 933641 ) approximately five minutes beforehand. A replay of the conference call will be available one hour after the call ends and can be accessed by dialing ( 416 ) 626-4100 ( using reservation No. 933641 ) until midnight Friday, July 10, 1998.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:16 - ID#267298)
Please tell me I'm wrong
It seems to me that if the ECB does not announce BOTH
a reasonable percentage of Gold reserves ( something more
than fifteen ) AND NO member CB's further Gold sales,
at least for some predetermined period of time, that they
will mimic the TITANIC, sink on the maiden voyage.

And yet, I have this sickly feeling in the pit of my stomach.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:25 - ID#202123)
Gold is dead in the water
As are all precious metals. This isn't 1930 or 40, or 50, 60, 70, 80, or even 1990--- this is world business like you haven't seen before! This is 1998 and the world's leaders determine what is going to happen. And PM isn't part of the plan.

When things do get out of hand and PM cuts loose, the gain will not offset the pain.

Where we are at right now, PM is not bought for an investment, but for the end of the world

I don't beleive in the end of the world, so why do I have 30% of my familys worth wrapped up in gold and silver It's crazy--- or maybe I am.

Anyways, I close with---God give me the wisdom--- ( and if that includes gold, then Go Gold ) .

The Hatt
(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:27 - ID#294232)
I Have Been Wrong Many Times Before However!
This time I feel the EU will give gold a boost tommorow and in fact it would not surprise me to see a breakout in London tommorow morning! Its getting ready to move and the initial move may dislodge a few shorts...

(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:30 - ID#273227)
silverfox - 22:10
information superhighway roadkill? This morning the following summary awaited my fellow daytraders and I, this is from "The Pristine Day Trader":

Internet Mania

The internet stocks continued to defy gravity yesterday as another round of explosive upside movement took AMZN, YHOO, LCOS, & XCIT to all-time highs, to name just a few. YHOO, whose shares have almost tripled this year, rose over $26 yesterday to close at $199.25. It is mind boggling to think that we recommended YHOO as a buy at $115.25 jsut 14 days ago. It is apparent to us that most of the buying in these internet stocks are the work of small individual investors. How do we know? Because the average size trade moving across the tape has been small. The average size trade in XCIT, for example, was only 452 shares. THe average size trade in LCOS was 491. Others had even a smaller average size trades. Institutions, such as mutual funds, typically like to buy in lots of 10,000 shares or more, so the smaller lot sizes are definitely the foot prints of little guys like us. Keep in mind that it does not take a great degree of buying to cause a huge run up in these internet rockets, as they are relatively illiquid. YHOO, LCOS, XCIT and SEEK have a total of about 120 million shares outstanding. That is compared with, say, APPL which has 133 million shares. A few hundred shares to buy can even have an effect. Here is an interesting point. Many traders, astounded by the incredible rise of this sector, were caught short stocks like AMZN and YHOO. But get this. Yesterday was one of the biggest short covering days in their history. Could that mean their run up is near an end? Maybe. But who really knows? If there's a chance athat the end is in sight, I say the top will be put in between today and Thursday. That's my predication, whatever that's worth. Let's wait and see.

(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:37 - ID#287277)
Gold Faces "Threat as European Central Bankers Mull Sales Policy" {PMF's post]
Please keep in mind two important points: ( 1 ) Intricate legislation to assure the 'independce' of European central banks from their individual governments and ( 2 ) the need of the Finance Ministries of European governments to HOLD gold ( yes, yes, yes...tis true )

The EU has spent over 18 months laboriously defining the legal implicaions of gold sales by a nation's central bank TO THE NATIONS

The Growth and Stability Pact makes this arrangement an absolute necessity. How the Powers-That-Be will spin this is another matter all together. Because it is critical that the midwives of the EURO keep GOLD down and the dollar UP and the DM down or at least quiescent. They are very, VERY busy...and not a little worried.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 07 1998 23:51 - ID#347267)
End of a Bull???
Wanna see a bear crawl out on a limb???

The Dow ain'tagonna make it back to the old highs. The S&P new highs were a sucka rally! Two little intraday peaks in the S&P today were the last gasps of a bull! Soon as the Dow 50 day MA cracks the 200 day MA, look out below. Was gonna wait for another 150 point up day to complete my URSA buying, but don't think there will be another 150 point UP day!!! If we get a bad down draft, will probably throw cold water on any gold stock move right now, but still like the miner's charts!!

Lets pay attention the next few days, its gonna get interesting.^SPX&d=1d^DJI&d=1d^DJI&d=3mm