Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:04 - ID#57232)
A few thoughts about gold and the EURO - the US dollar must come down a little
SDRer: I think you are right that the ECU wants to keep gold down and the dollar up to get a favorable balance of trade during their attempt at recovery from recession. This recessionary period was worsened in part by their tight money policy to meet EURO launch requirements. So -- they will want a fairly loose money policy. Bad timing given the rolling deflations/devaluations all over the world.

I'm sure that the European bankers know full well what will happen if the US maintains a very tight money supply, and too strong a US dollar. They risk imploding Japan with the dollar/yen carry among other things, and a subsequent general world deflationary collapse.

So they must run a very narrow course: Maintain open trade with the US and the rest of the world, keep the dollar relatively strong but not too strong, and keep Russia from collapsing. A tall order.

My guess is that they will or already have petitioned the US FED to hold interest rates steady, or to lower them. Probably very much like what happened in 1925 when the Europeans petitioned for expansion of the US money supply. The Europeans are not yet in a depression, but they are running scared.

Just like the US FED. Sure is hard to tell just how much our dose of inflation and deflation will be, and when. Probably long term deflation with a short term inflationary period if the US dollar gets in trouble and the foreign investors sell. But -- they won't until something bad happens in relation to the US, or the financial state of the rest of the world stabilizes.

In the best of all possible worlds, the US dollar price of gold will rise -- slowly, IMHO.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:09 - ID#228128)
Article poste by Tantulus Rex
This article is devoid of any mention of an important decision on gold to be announced tomorrow in Frankfurt. It brings to mind a comment that Glenn made some time ago that he was amazed that the traders that he had met at the Comex seemed totally devoid of any knowledge about the workings of the gold market. Those things regularly discussed here are not even a consideration to them. I was thinking that perhaps the rise in gold and the XAU today was the work of insiders who know something good. On the other hand it may be due to the weakness today in the Yen and thats all. If so, then the odds are in favor of being short in the morning. If the news is good todays action already accounted for some of the upside. If the news is bad, the longs are going to get hit hard.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:11 - ID#284255)
A Dream Of Life
I dreamed of Life and another Life
And a voice within -- my mentor
Counted me down!
" Five " he said.
The one word , that was all.
It rang -- and echoed -- like a bell within my head.

I saw a great stone wall.
It curved to right and left, inward
Where a great gate there was open wide
Huge shadowed trees majestic leafed each side
And I walked unafraid
Through that still dark shade

Then came another voice
Well loved, oft remembered
But whose form I could not see
Said, quiet and still to me.
" Fear not dearest heart
All will be well "

" Four " said my mentor.
And from that shaded place
Came to a clearer brighter space
And to a second gate
Though smaller, but of the first, the Mate

Here the path made way
Thru many a lovely day
And at that paths end, another fate
Intervened; and opened for me
A neat white painted wicket gate

And the quiet loved voice
With sweet assurance said
" Fear not -- there is no kindlier fate."

" Three " tolled my mentor
And no more would say
And in my dream I had no choice
But walk that way
Demanded by the mentors voice
Beyond the wicket --
Flowers! --
Oh bright and happy day
Such beauty there
This was our cottage garden
Made sweet with loving care.

But the dream urged me more
No lingering for me there.
The unseen gentle voice, but murmured " love "
And I sensed the precious presence with me there.

" Two " Intoned the mentor
And there beyond the flowers
That well remembered
Ancient iron framed gate
That measured many of our happy hours
There lay the kitchen garden.
Most opulent with earthly bounty
The very horn of plenty
Was garnered there --

" One " My mentor said
And in his tone I heard him say " the end. "

Before me that last gate
Beyond this gate -- the field
Far reaching -- a peace filled memoried rest
Full coloured with great drifts
Of wild flowers. ( I saw that these
Bright blooms were gathered store
Of early happy hours )
Great shaded trees made nest
For many birds,
And on the verge of that most restful scene
A great wide river ran
Deep cleansing for the wearied race of man
And mingled with the everlasting sea

Long years of memoried treasure lay around
My eyes were wet with tears, but not for pain
Her dear remembered voice said yet again
" Fear not -- all will be well "

And I became a part of all that wonder
I was One
With those great trees
With the flowering beauty of the garden
And the rich bounty of its yield.
And the peace that blossomed
Through the broad reaches of the flowered field
And the surge and song of the ancient sea.
And the bright life giving sun
All these were me

Such was the wonder and the mystery of that dream.
And She again was with me. All was One.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:13 - ID#253418)
Repeated calls for the top in stocks
Since 1988 I have heard calls for the end of the bull market, next week, next month, next quarter, yet the averages have kept going up. THIS is the time - ok. Do I believe it ? Hasn't every break been a buying opportunity, this next one won't be - Do I believe that.

I should of course, becasue here at KITCO I have stumbled on the greatest collection of expert gurus assembled and they are calling for a top in stocks and the end of the modern world due to the y2K problem. Should I believe it??

Haven't heard of a single Y2K problem yet assoicated with the fiscal year 2000 beginning for some states - have I missed something.

Let me give you my guess based on what has repeatedly happened: we'll have a little dip this week as earning come out as they will be slightly lower that comparative periods. The stock market will soften, the bears will roar, and snap, up we'll go again. And next month we'll have another set of new bears and some of the old come out and call for a top.

The problem is the KITCOITES much too contrarian - its the nature of gold bugs. It may be that we just so sideways; as that is completely ruled out - I bet that has a greater chance of happening than any of the other scenorios I've heard.

DOW 10,000 before gold $315.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:17 - ID#228128)
Princeton Economics on Japan's Bridge Bank plans
Why Japan's Bridge Bank
Will Fail
By Martin A. Armstrong
Princeton Economic Institute
 Copyright July 6th, 1998

While the optimism over the newly proposed "Bridge Bank" in Japan as a
bailout measure for the weakened Japanese banking system has sparked
praise outside of Japan, the story inside Japanese circles is anything
but positive. The Japanese government proposed Bridge Bank is wrongly
being view in the west as a "loose" interpretation of the US S&L bailout
conducted in the 1980s. However, there is no direct comparison between
the US bailout and that proposed by the current Japanese government.

In the case of the US, there was no attempt by the government to
covertly nationalize the S&L system. In the case of Japan, the
government is taking a slightly different approach. The criticism we
have learned from several banking sources in Japan is that the
government will in fact take over a bank if the bank approaches the
government for help. The government then requires all senior staff to
resign being replaced by government officials from MOF ( Minister of
Finance ) . Credit-worthy companies are told not to worry since the
government will guarantee that they will still be able to borrow funds
from the new government-run Bridge Bank. This leads to two serious
problems in Japan.

1. Banks will not approach the Bridge Bank as long as there is a
glimmer of hope. Senior staff will not resign unless there is no choice.
Therefore, the Bridge Bank will have to deal with banks that have
completely failed.

2. Private clients and corporates are not likely to receive equal
treatment with respect to their credit needs. Corporates will be loathe
to have to report that their funding is coming from the Bridge Bank in
fear that their credit ratings will be adversely affected. Private
clients fear that they will be discriminated against since they will be
seen as less important. Given the highly socialized attitudes within the
government, private individuals may not be deemed to be socially worthy
of government loans when the working man is suffering.

Another reason why the current Prime Minister is very unpopular within
Japan stems from his family background. Prime Minister Hashimoto's
father was the first Minister of Finance following World War II. It was
his father who established MOF and created the very systems many are
demanding should be torn down today. Hashimoto's unpopularity stems from
the belief that he will NOT reform the institutions that his father so
carefully created. Thus, the current proposed Bridge Bank merely
transfers the control of the banks into the hands of his father's former

These are the words that are spoken frankly to us by our clients in
Japan. It is interesting to say the least that the views from our
Japanese clients are exactly opposite of those from in New York or
London. It tends to illustrate that the media somehow always seems to
fall a little shy of the local color preferring to report the view from
politicians rather than from those who really matter.

From a long-term perspective, the trend within Japan is unlikely to be
reversed by the LDP ( Liberal Democratic Party ) and Mr. Hashimoto. Japan
is also unlikely to raise interest rates enough to allow for domestic
investment. An interest rate hike will threaten the banking system and
put an even greater burden upon the government bailout proposals. While
the official position on bad loans stands at $500 billion, the reality
of this situation is in excess of $1 trillion. If we consider the fact
that the funding for such a Bridge Bank is proposed at 1.3 trillion yen,
combined with 2.5 trillion in funds already set aside for bank bailouts,
the total funding remains only 3.8 trillion yen. At 140 to the dollar,
the Bridge Bank only represents $27 billion compared to even the
official figure on bad loans of $500 billion. When one looks carefully
behind the political statements, it is not hard to see why the Japanese
themselves do not remain very optimistic.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:28 - ID#335190)
Russian General Shot @ Note Central Asia OIL (july 1997) @ Concern New Russian order. Hmmmmm eh!
General Rokhlin, a retired
general and hero of the
Chechen war, was shot in the
head as he lay sleeping at his
country house outside
Moscow last Friday.

Backgrounder No. 1132 .................July 24, 1997

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Senior Policy Analyst
The Caspian Sea reserves have been estimated to hold 100 billion to 200 billion barrels of oil worth between $2 trillion and $4 trillion at current market prices.2 The region's reserves of natural gas are similarly enormous--larger than those in all of North America.

But the issue of access to the oil and natural gas of the Caspian Sea region is not an isolated one; it is linked to other important U.S. geostrategic interests in Eurasia. For example, U.S. policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about the possible re-emergence of a new Russian empire, and they realize that ready access to the rich oil and gas resources of this region could fuel such an expansion.

A new Russian empire conceivably might seek to gain exclusive control over the region's pipelines and limit U.S. access. Furthermore, the radical Islamic regime in Iran could move to turn Central Asia into its strategic rear, viewing the Islamic states of Central Asia as a potential sphere of influence.

Even China has the potential to become involved.

.........................NOTE THIS

*****Popular Russian General and "WAR HERO" Murdered Tuesday July 07 1998
Backgrounder No. 1132 .................July 24, 1997

Local conflicts commenced with the collapse of the Soviet empire and flared up because of the weak power of the NIS. These wars were exacerbated by elements of the Russian military who saw bloodshed in the Caucasus as a way to ensure Russian dominance in the region and Russian control over the pipeline routes.

Even more tragic, some of the generals and politicians in Russia may have benefited personally from arms sales to these volatile spots.

General Lev Rokhlin, chairman of the State Duma's Defense Committee, recently made public a clandestine $1 billion program of arms shipments to Armenia. The State Duma, the presidency, and the military confirmed these allegations. This highly destabilizing program, capable of derailing peace efforts to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, was authorized by former Minister of Defense Pavel Grachev.

The investigation to find out whether Grachev and other top military leaders benefited from this traffic remains classified. ( 16 )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:31 - ID#411259)
..... PGM Bliss .....

Platinum has roused itself in its mighty roar and has set upon unsuspecting short traders with a venal vengeance. Drooling with avarice and the potentiality of quick and vicious profits, the Far East responded to the CPM report today of increased platinum usage in ALL areas excepting jewelry ( which decreased demand - to be found almost entirely in Japan, which has been offset by INCREASED jewelry demand from China. ) has once again turned trading eyes towards platinum.

The most encouraging thing about this latest move is that it has managed its gains without a helping hand from palladium. All eyes are on the October contract now, and a hundred dollars between now and then would appear to be a simple replay of last year; hardly a move of great significance or enormous portent; just what platinum does. Average volatility in platinum is about 35% per year. Silver checks in at about 28%, and gold trails the pack with.. Oh hell. I dont have the numbers here at hand, so just believe that it trails the rest because I SAID SO!

To follow up one of my more mistimed calls of the last six months, I am buying all the platinum I can now. Been doing so since $348 and will continue on up to about $400. Fundamentals cannot be ignored, at least not for long and always at the procrastinators peril. I like the stuff here.

Im Buyin.



$400 by the end of the week..........



(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:31 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about the times
Sharefin: Thanks for the beautiful words from down under. You posts are always a pleasure to read.

Some thoughts for you: One of our fellow Kitcoites posted a fairly scientific study relating human activity to sunspot activity, the idea being that humans become less quiescent and more warlike -- at least more demanding of their leaders. Increased terrorism and civil unrest seems to correlate with increased sunspot activity. Unfortunately I misplaced the post url. What is important is that this study corroborates what I have maintained about the effect of sunspots on the markets.

I repeat to all that the markets will be at greater risk for a downturn in about six months, just based on solar activity. The risk for a downturn seems to increase as sunspot activity peaks and subsides.

Just in about the right time for y2k. I shudder to think if a US recession, sunspot peaking/decline, y2k, Clinton impeachment proceedings, and a Russian Revolution all coalesce. The trick is to decipher as many natural cycles as possible, and invest accordingly. Seems like tiptoeing through the minefields to me.

I have done well in Retail mutual funds recently, and my gold equities are stirring ( on a full moon no less! ) Probably partially due to the recent strength of the Japanese markets. My quess is the US markets will stay up for some time -- at least till the fall. Maybe well into 1999.

Hope you are avoiding the mines, too.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:37 - ID#373284)
jims, Namaste' waiting for an answer. 10,000 before 315 gold
A gold sovereign and I am on the $315.00 an ounce team...tic...tic...tic

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:38 - ID#411259)
..... PS 2 .....

Just to dispel the notion that a crystal ball whispered to me where the bottom in platinum was, I will admit to the following:

I bought at $390

I also bought at $380, $370, $360, and $350.

I cant pick a bottom

Nobody I have ever know can.

Buy I do know when the fundamentals speak in a loud and clear tongue.

I listen, indeedy I do.

I said do

Not DOH!


(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:42 - ID#287186)
Mooney - you thought I was going to talk about stormclouds again, eh?
May there be a Silver Lining in those clouds.
And a Pot of GOLD at the end of the rainbow.
Sleep tight, do let the goldbugs byte! ;- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:44 - ID#411259)
..... Regarding ECB pending announcements .....

10% means gold falls trough the floor.

15% means gold falls through the floor at a somewhat slower pace.


Not the $280 floor

That one is made of solid wood and sturdy.

It should hold

If not for all time, than for most times.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:52 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
All: I forgot about ElNino and the subsequent anticipated LaNina. Florida is now extensively peppered with forest fires, and the Midwest is baking. Where I am temperatures are approaching record highs, and little rain in sight. Some lakes have dropped to October minimum levels in July - disturbingly early. The weather 'volatility index' is likely to be rising on the appropriate relevant timescale -- driven in part by the rising solar constant ( from the rising sunspots, not 'so-called global warming' ) and in part to the ElNino/La Nina. Sooner or later this will affect commodity prices from crop failures.

Sure looks like the weather pattern that hit SEAsia and South America is now hitting parts of the US. Could similar economic events follow? Perhaps. The weather was connected to the Great Depression in some complex manner, and to other prior economic events. The connection between the weather and economic events needs to be more thouroughly understood.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:53 - ID#45173)
my guys here in NYC say the stock market's gonna blow, barroom wisdom......
quick note bfore I hit teh hay.. got this from todays WSJ.. gotta go.. tired.

WSJ Online July 7, 1998

Gold Poor for the Long Term,
But Still Shines in Rough Times

Gold is a lousy long-term investment that could make a great addition to your portfolio.

If you're puzzled by that, you aren't alone.

Like many investors, I have never been convinced of the need to buy gold-company stocks, invest in precious-metals mutual funds or purchase gold coins. But with gold languishing around $300 an ounce, it seems as if the yellow metal deserves a second look.

Not that the lowly price is the reason to buy gold. It just makes the whole proposition more intriguing. Instead, the main argument for owning gold is a diversification argument.

If you are a long-term investor, stocks are your portfolio's engine of growth. But most investors don't want growth alone. They are also interested in easing the anxiety associated with investing and, if they are retired, tapping their portfolio for income.

That is why stock investors buy other stuff, like bonds, money-market funds and gold. These other investments will reduce a stock portfolio's risk level. But this risk reduction comes at a price. After all, over the long haul, none of these other investments is likely to keep up with stocks.

Historically, shares have outpaced inflation by between six and seven percentage points a year. By contrast, bonds might return three percentage points a year above inflation, a money-market fund could yield two percentage points more, and gold prices should roughly match the rise in consumer prices.

Among the array of possible diversifiers for a stock portfolio, I am most drawn to inflation-indexed bonds and cash investments such as money-market funds and Treasury bills. These securities provide a ready source of cash in an emergency, while also offering good bear-market protection.

In a stock-market crash, cash investments shouldn't fall in value and inflation-indexed bonds shouldn't decline much. They could do quite well. Both investments give you a good defense against inflation, which is one of the biggest threats for stock-market investors.

But while cash and inflation-indexed bonds ought to perform reasonably well in a rough stock market, gold has the potential to post spectacular results.

At times of political crisis or accelerating inflation, gold bullion can show huge gains, helping to offset your stock-market losses. Gold-company stocks, and the funds that own them, can fare even better, as soaring gold prices turn marginally profitable gold mines into big money makers.

"If you think about the sort of thing that drives gold higher -- inflation, economic chaos, social unrest, war -- then people should put 5% of their portfolio in gold and hope the price goes down," says Gerald Perritt, editor of Mutual Fund Letter, a Largo, Fla., newsletter.

Mr. Perritt continues: "The loss you take on gold is like the premium you pay on an insurance policy. You don't really want to collect on your policy. But it's there just in case."

The problem is, unlike cash investments or inflation-indexed bonds, gold doesn't provide reliable portfolio protection. For proof, you need look no further than the stock-market decline in May and June, when gold funds ranked as one of the worst-performing mutual-fund categories.

"We haven't had any inflation, so there's nothing to excite gold investors," says Roger Ibbotson, a finance professor at Yale University's School of Management and chairman of Ibbotson Associates, a Chicago research firm. "We have had political uncertainty in Asia, but not enough to affect the gold market."

But the real value of gold lies less in its actual performance than in the comfort it provides to investors. If you keep some of your money in gold, does that make you more willing to buy stocks?

Suppose you have half your money in stocks and half in bonds. If the comfort that comes with a 5% gold position gives you the courage to bolster your stock holdings to 65%, with the remaining 30% in bonds, you should end up with higher long-run returns.

Of course, this only works if holding gold makes you more aggressive with the rest of your portfolio. That's why I don't own gold. I don't find it comforting. Gold's performance is just too fickle for my taste. But maybe it provides the sort of risk reduction you are looking for. If that is the case, a small stake in gold could make a lot of sense.

Mr. Perritt favors two no-load gold funds, American Century Global Gold Fund and Vanguard Specialized Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio. Whatever happens to gold, neither fund is likely to cost you a lot in taxes.

"It's a good idea to use two of them," Mr. Perritt explains. "If they continue to slide, you can sell one, buy the other and take the tax loss." Meanwhile, should gold take off, the funds could go years without making large capital-gains distributions, thanks to their unrealized losses and tax-loss carry-forwards.

Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 00:56 - ID#255151)
Mtn Bear, Squirrel

Yeah, interesting piece at the Contrarian's
web site by Veneroso. Nick Chase also has a good writing style, as do most guys named Nick. That orange background, though. Reminds me of Halloween. Come to think of it, maybe that is appropriate, eh. Squirrel--I wonder if Clinton will be singing "They're Coming to Take Me Away" in a few months?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:02 - ID#411259)
..... Hey you NZ fellows .....

A show on the "Outdoor Channel" is running a show on the mysterious islands of NZ.

Now, they are speaking of Fjordland Penguins.

I must learn of these "Towakay" or "Elves of the Forrest"


Dave in CO
(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:13 - ID#229103)
Thanks for your enlightening post. Dow 10,000 before gold 315 was it? Could happen. Wouldn't be surprised a bit. What really surprises me is that an investor of your caliber would bother to read this site, and waste your time sharing your wisdom with lowly goldbugs.

Yessiree, a 16 year bull market in stocks ( like Yahoo ) beats a 18 year bear market in gold anytime. And the recorded history of the monetary value of gold is irrevevant. Yessiree, jims, thanks for your insight. I'm putting in my order tonight to sell my PM stocks and buy the internet.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:16 - ID#287186)
Auric - they already have taken him away.
The slick willy we see is an imposter - just a puppet.
Somebody or somegroup is pulling his strings.
Nobody could be that arrogant, stupid, and blind!

Fifty years from now we will hear of slick willy sightings.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:23 - ID#284255)
I couldn't agree more.
Sunspots and increasing tensions.

All this chaos coalesing at this coming point in time,
Does not bode well. At all.
I would guess that a war will eventuate out of the quagmire too.
Sort of fits in with the scenario,
Which has been painted many times before.

The Chinese curse:
"May you live in interesting times."
Article with comments below.
Although the US has made good progress on fixing the Y2K issue, Lawrence
Summers, deputy secretary at the US Treasury, testified to Congress' Special
Committee on the Year 2000 that countries should use risk management to ensure
priority systems would continue to work and contingency plans were in place to
cope with failures.

"Unless fixed, Year 2000 problems will pervade every aspect of our financial
systems if failures are widespread, they can pose a threat to central markets
such as an exchange or clearing house," he warned. US government departments
have also been required to report on their compliance status, but for the
rest of the world analysts have warned that many government systems will not
be compliant. Up to 40 per cent of systems in European countries will not be
ready, according to Gartner Group.

A number of senior US government figures have already testified to Congress
that the symbiotic nature of global economies could mean problems come in 2000
even for countries that are 100 per cent compliant.
Individual compliance is moot. There will be far too many that are not
compliant to hold the system together. 40% of Europe alone won't make it.
Japan, China, Russia, all toast. South America, Middle East, Africa...all
asleep at the switch.

Most of the banks and businesses in this country won't make it.

We are starting to hear all the flag waving and John Phillip Sousa music, but
that won't change human nature. Not enough has been done and not enough will
be done from this point forward. The world's economic systems WILL collapse.

Count on one hand how many towns or conties or any groups at all are taking
precautions to feed their population. NONE

Here is your choice.... rely on others who WILL fail you or rely on yourself
and get the hell out of Dodge before everyone tries to get out at the same time.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:45 - ID#255151)
Check This Out

This gave me a good chuckle. Matt Drudge has an online poll asking who wrote the so-called Talking Points for Monica Lewinsky. I think the White House is scrambling on this latest development. HA! Don't you all just love it when those corrupt big boys fall down! You should see the "DRUDGE POLL" on screen when you go there. Click on that. Most think Bruce Lindsey wrote them.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 01:59 - ID#187109)
go platinum!
YES. write about the *First Annual Official Unofficial Kitco North American Phoenix Golf Open*


kuston........thanks dude. Had a GREAT time!

go oj......down down down....................

can you say canadiandollarandcoffee? buysome ( . ) ( soon )

gotta love a good bollinger band................ ( uh huh ) .

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:21 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Select Gold ( FSAGX ) TOP sector percentage gainer today @ 2.0%

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:30 - ID#404124)

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:32 - ID#187109)
more on plat....

'member last years Oct. Plat?

INDEEDY.................... ( ! ) sit back and REAP ( . )


(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
Individual Compliance Is Absolutely MOOT
"All financial firms are potentially at risk," Mr. Summers said. "Even those
entities which act responsibly to renovate their own systems can still be
harmed, because of the intertwined nature of the financial system. A failure
by a counterpart, supplier or vendor can have a negative impact on an
otherwise- solvent firm."
wanna buy some physical....???

If the Sultan of Brunei's brother had not followed mainstream psychology.
And had sold out of his debt and exchanged his assets into physical.

Would he be richer or poorer now???

The perspective of reality, is viewed from where one is sitting.
Opinions that hold true, that todays reality will not change.
Are not looking over the fence,
To see what tomorrow's changes may bring.

Reality today will not be reality tomorrow.
And the view from the fence is not encouraging.

To be considered a fool today - is moot.
If one is considered a intelligent person tomorrow.

At this moment in time,
Looking forward to the coming future,
There seems no doubt to the concept,
Of not holding paper but to hold real assets with no debt....

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:38 - ID#187109)
the cat? the rat? HepRatCat?!?? welcome thee back.........I am still not convinced of your legitimateness..............say something Heppy. where to goldydude?

away......for some zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's


(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:40 - ID#255151)
World Stock Markets Quiet Lately

Except for Russia taking huge hits. Are the markets ignoring Russia's troubles? Heard they have a lot of Gold and nukes.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:47 - ID#252150)
DBOG@I don't think you get it
It seems to me that if the ECB does not announce BOTH
a reasonable percentage of Gold reserves ( something more
than fifteen ) AND NO member CB's further Gold sales,
at least for some predetermined period of time, that they
will mimic the TITANIC, sink on the maiden voyage.

And yet, I have this sickly feeling in the pit of my stomach.

Me--Have'nt you figured out how the game is played. The Euro Countries, especially Germany are facing many social problems, particularly high unemployment. The last thing they need is a strong currency that would make their exports less competitive. The whole world is devaluing & the Euro Counties do'nt want to start out with too strong a currency. Just look at Switzerland. Their strong currency has hurt them for the past 5+ years, which is why they frequently release news that affects AU negatively.
I stated 1 yr months ago that I would be very surprised if the ECB keeps more than 15% of their reserves in AU.
No. I'm afraid that it's extremely unlikely that GBs will ever get any help from the ECB or any of the Euro CBs. Au remains anathema to them.
Au will always be the mortal enemy of paper pushers & pushing paper is their raison d'etre.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:57 - ID#187109)
bollinger bands........
speaking of them.......

they look pretty good here.............if you like narrow bands................... buy more Papago?


(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:58 - ID#257148)
Y2K test???
Telephone lines went down in the lower N Island today, causing communication disruptions to Wellington for much of the day. The problem was centred in Palmerston North ( W Coast N Island ) where Telecom technicians were "Upgrading Software" News just heard.

anyone care to wager that the "upgrade" was an attempt to look at Y2K? ( being in the "upgrade" business myself )

Oh oh, shall keep you all posted. NZ is once again leading the world.....Yeeeeeaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh. Choice.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 02:59 - ID#284255)
Pessimist or future realist??? wish I knew...
Gee, It Took Them Long Enough To Figure It Out

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:03 - ID#404124)
Bring Back Those Lazy Hazy Crazy Days of Summer

EB--I know not the direction-only the possibilites,RJ's position aside,which I respect.We may have some questions answered sooner than later.The numbers need clarification,to quantify without qualifying may be premature.To qualify without quantification would appear premature.The numbers are cannot be quaranteed. Indeed Ideedy.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:24 - ID#248170)
The end is the beginning.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:27 - ID#255151)

Nice to have you back. Would like to hear your thoughts on Gold, Silver, and the dow. ( Be careful! I noticed the first 3 digits of your ID # are 404! : ) )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:32 - ID#257148)
Unless I have missed my guess, this HepMeMoney, aint the hepmemoney you think.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:39 - ID#255151)
aurator--Sawasdee Krup

I think you're right. Was thinking HepCat for a minute there. Still, I would like to hear what HepMeMoney has to say on those topics. Sawasdee Krup. ( that's a traditional Thai greeting )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:41 - ID#404124)

Gold needs an enima.

Silver needs a reason.

The DOW needs a correction.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:47 - ID#24135)
I see the rain in Africa ..
and I dream of Australia..
To all ..
The Aussie $ recently tumbled from about $0.78 to
about $0.63. This would have been a marvellous
opportinity for profits IF their hedges were based in
US $. As best as I can determine, few of them were.
As far as I can tell, Only Kidston seems to be
fully hedged in US $. Newcrest looks like maybe 33%.
WMC has the best deal .. Unhedged but with a stack of
puts at $275.
Many of these mines are hedged out to 2007 and as
far as 2011 .. Talk about not much faith. And not much
reaction in profit if the Aussie gold price rises ..
either via a rise in the POG or a furthur Aussie $
Im curious .. I never read anything in the press
about a collapse of the society or a revolution down
under as a result of the fall in the Aussie $. I must
have missed it somehow. Hope you guys are OK.
PS ..
Rand trading 6.17 .. It rallied yesterday having
learned of CheeseHead's forecast.. some are learning
to follow him closely... and DO THE

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:48 - ID#255151)
Speaking of Thailand...
If you want to get away from it all, just say "Phuket!"

(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:56 - ID#233199)
@ John Disney
Does RSA have much of a heavy equipment industry? Is earth moving and road building equipment made locally?


(Wed Jul 08 1998 03:58 - ID#255151)
HepMeMoney 03:41

Yeah, the dow should have had a lot of corrections. It really has had very few since August 1990. Silver--Warren Buffet and Kodak might be reason, eh. Gold--Heh heh, it does indeed need something to kick its butt!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 04:11 - ID#404124)
Gold Forecast

Fog off the West Coast Off England,

France.... clear and sunny,

Germany....cloudy..with sunny periods,

Italy........sunny with cloudy periods,

Russia......light drizzle,

(Wed Jul 08 1998 04:47 - ID#39857)
G'day John Disney
When all is said and done aint much difference in the charts of
LIHRY and HGMCY. Thems both steaming ahead in the right direction.
Last night saw HGMCY down 3.29% and LIHRY up 0.5%. What about
tonight. This could become interesting.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:04 - ID#386245)
I've got a good mate...
...with a smile a foot wide.

Says he bought 30 coins today.
Ten different countries.
Gold,platinum and silver.
In fancy boxes with certificates.
Some only 200 issued.
Panic sales.
Sell 'em quick, before they're worthless.
Spot plus 2.5%.
Half or less the issue price on most.

Can't seem to wipe the smile off his face.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:07 - ID#24135)
Lotsa paper lotsa talk
For Hedgehog ..
Lihir is MUCH more heavily promoted
than Harmony .. Im not talking CHARTS.
Im talking fundamentals .. Buy Lihir
.. and we'll talk about it in 12 months.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:21 - ID#333126)
Nick@C -- where did your mate get those coins at fire sale prices?
just curious ;- )

no, it's not that i'm trying to add to my ( still small ) collection ... yeah right. :- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:25 - ID#39857)
John, could you provide us with conclusive field evidence re HGMCY
HGMCY got any claims on the ocean 'round Virginia.
The MYTH of PNG will reveal riches beyond a SA dream.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:33 - ID#39857)
I'm afraid Lihir's
upside makes a viagra junky look like a jellyfish.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:47 - ID#24135)
You want to build a road ?
For SWP1 ..
RSA builds and exports small mid range earth moving
and road building equipment.
Really giant Cat type stuff is imported. Bell equipment
is durban based manufacturer. They export 40 % of their
production .. 13 % goes to the US .. They have
subidiaries in Europe US Australia other countries
They make articulated front end loaders up to 40
tons .. also a big range of timber transportation
vehicles and equipment for sugar industry.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:50 - ID#386245)
G'day mates.
Auric--you forgot to tell me where to send the money.
"Nick Chase also has a good writing style, as do most guys named Nick."
Sharefin can pay for himself.

ravenfire--my mate ain't talkin'. Would you go into a bar and tell where you found a huge gold nugget??

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 05:50 - ID#24135)
sweet dreams..
Hedgehog ..
Talk to you in 12 months ..
you and the other 900 mill pieces
of paper holders.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:06 - ID#20748)
Will hold 15 percent of reserves in gold.>

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:15 - ID#386245)
If I were living in America...
...and had more dollars than sense.

I wouldn't go to Vegas right now. I would short tech stocks.

"No more bets..."

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:16 - ID#252391)
Dow 10,000 before Gold 315
I'll admit there hasn't been a positive correlation between my reading of KITCO and my fiancial well being. Fortunately, I do occupy my self otherwise most of the time. No I'm not willing to bet on the above prophecy; I rather have the money in the event of my being wrong to buy additional precious metal investments.

Because Gold is in a 18 year bear market is no reason in its self for a bottom to occur or a new up trend to develope. The fact that valuations are out of wack in ones view does not reverse a trend moving toward even greater wackiness.

There is no fundlemental force operative that is having a net bullish effect on the price of gold. The disinvestment from gold, the manipulation of gold and deflationary trends world wide are cumulatively overpowering the flow of funds into it. It's very simple, look at a bar chart over any period of a month or more. The trend is down, above 315 it might not be. There is nothing taking place that has demonstrated an ability to change gold's trend.

We can imagine what might be, but what is hapeening is that gold is trapped under $300 while the stock market has been in an uptrend the interruptions from which have been fast recovered. Those are established trends; when they stop ( rallies fail to correct reversals in the case of the US Stock Market ) and gold can sustain a rally over 315, a review of the situation will be warrented.

A review I'll be able to quite rapidly do, in part, with the help of this board. Affraid however, at this time, bored is what I am with about 95% digested from this baord. I've reached the point of diminishing returns. No offense to anybody; it can't be determined over such a short period what the good 5% is.

Lastly,I don't believe the Dow will break in a flash and gold jump so fast to the upside they won't be tossable or catchable. More likely at this juncture the DOW and Gold will move in tandem, irregularly sideways and frustratingly lower.

In the end it may be a dead heat between Dow at 10,000 and gold at 315 and paradoxically some time out.

Exactly, my point: anything could happen; no one is really smart enough with regualrity to perdict when chances that might happen, will happen, relative to people, their money, and the markets in which they invest.

Our best guide to what will happen is the imperfect picture of what has most recently has been happening. While I've been reading KITCO there have been perdictions a plenty of a change to the trends in place. Satistically, I suppose "tails" can't be flipped to infinity.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:22 - ID#386245)
NJ--re: EMU 15%
Couldn't get your URL to work. Could you copy the text and post it? cheers, N.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:55 - ID#29048)
7/8 European Central Bank to Hold 15% of Its Reserves in Gold

European Central Bank to Hold 15% of Its Reserves in Gold

Frankfurt, July 8 ( Bloomberg ) -- The European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said the bank will hold 15 percent of its $55 billion foreign exchange reserves in gold.

The 11 nations joining the single European currency are collectively the world's largest gold owners, holding total reserves of about 12,751 metric tons.

That means the bank will hold $8.25 billion of reserves in gold, or almost 900 tons at current prices. The 11,851 tons of the metal no longer needed to back any currency will remain in the vaults of national central banks.

Gold for immediate delivery last traded little changed at $295.25 an ounce in London. Gold fell to an 18-year low of $276.75 an ounce in January on concern European central banks and governments want to unload their gold reserves.

The ECB's 17 governors met yesterday to debate policy issues.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 06:57 - ID#29048)
15% and 900 tons>

What will the big CBs do with the rest?
What will the reserves be in dollars?
Inquiring minds want to know.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:01 - ID#29048)
August gold down 1.40 and silver down 2.8 cents..
The drop in gold happened in Europe at about the same time as the ECB reserves announcement. If this is the big drop, then pog is tough.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:05 - ID#39828)
This baby has been built to cook by those who know gold. Plant
capacity begs new resourses. As John Disney has kindly pointed
out these boys have spared no penny building the biggest
and the best. Production estimates keep getting bigger.
I figure they figure plant capacity and expence is justified.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:13 - ID#26793)
Japan looking for a way to promote the yen (Kitcoites have a few ideas!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
Pakistan has frozen foreign exchange accounts; still threatens debt moratorium

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:27 - ID#26793)
Congressmen introduce legislation to prevent use of rescue fund.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:31 - ID#26793)
Venezuela interest rates soar to 90% in new currency and banking crisis

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:53 - ID#329186)
Speed(ID#29048 jul 8
your numbers interesting The 11 nations joining the single european currency hold 12,751 metric tons of gold......mmmmmmm

Am I right in thinking that the estimates for gold sold short is in the region of 8,000 to 11,000 tons ? if so this puts the short gold into a perspective that can be visualised.

I would ask another question ( please relate it to Ted Butlers letter April 8th to Alan greenspan & Ruben see golden eagle ) this short gold if having been lent and "consumed" is not going to be paid back ,am I to understand that there is mearly an IOU inclusive of au loan interest sitting in all these central banks to make their "stock take/audit" appear OK if so who how can they lay claim to such large reserves .....
.......are they simply pretending to have such amounts ..and thus keeping the price down in order to replace the "Missing Gold" I would appreciate if anyone can confirm if CB's have their gold stocks audited and by whom......

buy physical AU of course


(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:55 - ID#29048)
EMU gold reserves from another source

(Wed Jul 08 1998 07:59 - ID#350194)
jims - much of what you say makes perfect sense and at this point in time your scenario of 'more of the same' has just as much likelyhood as any other. However, as you admit, just because the present situation is what it is, this does not preclude a change hapening at any time. Also I tend to disagree that we are still in the longterm downtrend unless the $280. area is convincingly breached. I think that the market has been forming a large base ( sideways action ) for the last six months.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:01 - ID#29048)
Gold leasing causes much speculation.. ( pun intended ) .

If the gold mining companies are the principal borrowers, then the leases can be paid back with future production. Speculators have no problem finding cheap gold to close out Unfortunately for us gold bugs, gold is everywhere. POG will continue to be influenced primarily by currency changes until the cbs decide to stop selling/leasing at low prices. That will keep it range bound for awhile longer. bwdik

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:04 - ID#259400)
I think you will discover that $280 will not hold. All my instincts tell me you will see 100-140 gold in the forseeable future. 90% of gold mutual funds will shut down and gold will become a precious metal commodity bought and sold on it's value for jewelry and industrial applications. Just one man's opinion.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:05 - ID#224363)
EMU Gold - The non-announcement
So they have announced that 900 tons out of a total of 12,700 tons of gold will be held to back up the Euro ( i.e. 15% of total ) reserves. But the following says it all...

"This is not going to reassure the gold market because the main question of what happens to the rest of it remains unanswered," said Steve Briggs, commodities analyst at Societe Generale Frankel Pollak in Johannesburg.

The same old questions remain:

1 ) What percentage of the remaining 12,700 tons belong to the German, French and Italians and what do you think this countries will do with their gold ?

2 ) If you held a whack of gold and you were entrusting your financial well-being to a community ( like the EMU ) that was not yet a known quantity, would you dump your gold ?

Bottom line here seems to be that good old saying - 'the more things change the more they remain the same'

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:14 - ID#224363)
@Bill2j - $100-$140 Gold
My gut feeling is that this is not likely unless the big guns ( US, Germany, France, Japan ) all announce that they are dumping their reserves. As someone pointed out yesterday, the big drivers on the POG right now are:

1 ) Strength of the $US relative to other currencies
2 ) Low interest rates and perception of 'no inflation'

Both of which are helping to hold the POG back.

Also, there is no doubt that the concept of 'value' has changed since the dawn of the information/internet age. It will be interesting to see if 'new model' sticks or if we revert back to more traditional financial values.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:18 - ID#329186)
Speed ID#29048
Hi Speed ( pun intended )

Yes but,if the banks have leased out physical gold it can't be in two places at once ( not in reallity ) and we are all I hope waiting for the shorts be be put under pressure, what puzzles me is who audits central banks or even who verifies their holdings of gold ?? or is this yet another lack of transparency issue?


(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:23 - ID#259400)
I have a hard time seeing why central banks would want to warehouse a commodity that diminishes in value every year, year in and year out. If you take the price of gold and adjust it for inflation the central banks have taken a mercilous beating over the last 20 years. I would like to know the adjusted for inflation values of CB holdings in 1998 compared to 1980. I bet they are down a bunch. I think the real reason they are dumping gold the last few years is they want to get out before they lose it all. It would be interesting to know what $100,000 worth of gold in 1980 is worth today.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:25 - ID#288369)
@EMuore of the same..........
The way I'm looking at the paltry 15% gold commitment by the EMU is: With a 15% entrustment of individual country's gold to the "security" tranche backing the euro, the resultant probability of success of the euro is 15%. This is all that the eleven finance ministers are willing to bet....and they are the best informed on this investment matter.

If I were responsible for my country's gold and the well being of its treasury, I would hold the gold very tightly in my vault....and wait for the 85% probable demise of the euro. In this future european currency war ( jilted lovers syndrome ) , France and Germany will do very well with the flexibilities afforded by large gold reserves. They will "buy" the other twirp economies.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:26 - ID#255151)
Gold vs. paper

I look at the turmoil in SE Asia as an Influenza virus of currencies. It first showed up in Thailand, of all places. The flu quickly spread to Malaysia and Indonesia. The IMF doctors thought they had this flu virus quarantined to SE Asia. Clinton said as much a few months ago. Well guess what? Japan and China are showing all the signs and symptoms of this flu in its early stages. Russia looks to be coming down with a bad case of it. And Venezuela caught a chill today. My take is that this flu strain is widespread, and growing rapidly inside every paper currency system in the world, including the US dollar. Gold, Silver, and Platinum provide some immunity to this currency eating virus.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:31 - ID#206358)
Just heard the update news from radio about the PRESSURE AND TENSE the millions of indonesian facing...!The poorer keep adding numbers...nearly half of the populations!Check out the cnn news and cnbc,the scenes saw the citizen Q up for rice,oil,sugar,medicine,dairy need ect!Not sure how long can the HABIBIE's GOVT can last...probably couples of months ,or shorter..!!
Around the region still see peoples selling their gold ornaments to the pawn shops,what a good refinery business!Further more the central govts encouraged the peoples sell metal/diamand/p.stone to save the finacial sectors....the gold retail/wholesale are nearly halfdead ( liked me.. ) !
Think that the refinery gold are "oversupply" compared much cheaper than the kilos bars...!Soon ,will know the report from the world gold council...let see...!!
The only thing i can do now is tearing my metals pcs by pcs by pcs,to exchange for dairy maintanence...still i'm luckier than others..!!
Blessing to the poor,needed,the hungers,the sufferers...go away pain and sorrow..!
life still go on and on ...jin

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:31 - ID#252391)
To Mooney
We will know gold has made a base when it has made a telling move up and away form it. Till then the range from $280 to $300 is sideways activity within the context of a downtrend. The word "base" is defined by a future price sturcture above it. A base is an extended bottom which until there is price action above it is just another stop, a couple of bar lines on a monthly chart along a long ways down.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:34 - ID#427357)
Survival 2000 by John Kutyn

The Oracle of the Orient foresees the collapse of the Asia's credit
bubble - which will destroy government bonds and currencies.

The Far-Eastern deflationary collapse will destroy the profitability of highly indebted companies, bringing down banks, government bond markets, and government currencies. Consequently, reduced production will diminish the demand for commodities, thus decreasing their value.

"falling stock markets, accompanied by government currencies and bond markets being wiped out, the only asset class that could rise substantiality in value would be gold, silver, and diamonds --"

Can we believe that the Bank of Japan is serious about defending the Yen, when it buys a few Yen on world markets, while simultaneously creating vast quantities of Yen internally? The results of the actions are contradictory both ends pulling against the middle. Consequently, the BOJ's real objective remains inscrutably unknown.

Chinese banks are technically insolvent. Nonetheless, they continue to finance both bloated inventories ( that no one wants or needs ) and companies that are already bankrupt.

In a worldwide deflationary environment characterised by contracting demand, Chinese companies will NOT be able to return to profitability and manage their burgeoning inventories, IF THE EXCHANGE RATE REMAINS STABLE.

Not surprisingly, most Japanese bankrupt financial institutions to date had up to 10 times the audited bad debts.

HEY, Mr Seidman, your estimate of ONLY $1 Trillion in Nippon Banks bad loans is a "trifle" understated you will do well to read Kutyn's full report at the following URL. - as usual it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the URL before posting it to your Internet locator:

Early Riser
(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:39 - ID#228275)
EMU gold reserves
To anyone:

Is it not true that gold is a hedge against excess creation of fiat money? In this case, why wouldn't a low percent of gold backing the emu cause value of emu in terms of gold to go down, i.e. emu price of gold to go up?

I recognize that if European CB's were to dump on the market their gold that is not needed for emu reserves, the POG would go down, in the short term. But in the long run, isn't the supply of fiat money relative to gold what counts? This would imply that the important cause of POG in dollars is the supply of dollars by the fed, and EMU reserves have little to do with this. I recall the POG in dollars took off in the 70's when the link between dollars and gold was severed entirely. Wouldn't this be analogous to an EMU reserve percent of zero? How would POG have reacted to that?

We'll see what Mr. Market says. So far I see only down about $1.5 or so, and leveling off.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:41 - ID#288369)
@Gold for $100 a troy ounce..........not.
Gold will never be owned by the poor. Regretfully, never.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:43 - ID#29048)
No one outside the fed audits the lack of transparency.
The shorts are more likely to get bored and go do something else before they get squeezed. I have more hope for silver in the near term.

away to work bbml

(Wed Jul 08 1998 08:45 - ID#224363)
I think Frank Venerossa and Associates did a study re: the ability of gold to hold value and I believe their conclusion was that over the long term, gold held value well.

I imagine that if you started in 1980, Gold has probably done quite poorly but keep in mind that the average gold prices were as follows:

1977 - $147
1978 - $193
1979 - $306
1980 - $612
1981 - $460
1982 - $375

I imagine that most CBs did not buy a large percentage of their gold in the 1979 - 1980 timeframe.

Quite frankly, I think that the lost lustre in gold is simply a reflection of the hyper-return mentality of the last 10 years. If you don't see a 30% return then the asset is underperforming and should be dumped.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:02 - ID#335190)
Russian General Lev Rokhlin @ BOSTON USofA & "Treacherous" say Treaty Opponents. Russian Patriots

Unofficial talks on slashing nuclear weapons in Boston

Viktor LITOVKIN, Izvestia

Yesterday a delegation of the leading Russian arms experts has returned from Boston, where they negotiated further cuts of strategic offensive weapons with their American colleagues.

Little is known about these talks. We only know that they were held in an unofficial atmosphere, that the Russian delegation included Sergei Rogov, director of the Institute of the USA and Canada, Major-General Pavel Zolotarev of the Defence Council staff, Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Defence Ministry, and Major-General Vladimir Dvorkin, head of the 4th Research Institute of the Defence Ministry. The USA was represented by ex-Defence Secretary William Perry and assistant defence secretary for nuclear safety Ashton Carter.

Another thing we know is that the trip to Boston and back was paid for by the Americans; the other expenses were born by the Russian side. The meeting took place within the framework of the Helsinki agreements of the two presidents on elaborating a START-3 treaty.

One interesting nuance: the talks were held although the State Duma is categorically against signing a new treaty. Moreover, it has not yet ratified the START-2 treaty and is doing its best to draw out the process. The team of fierce opponents includes not just the communist and the liberal democratic factions, but also Lt.-Gen. Lev Rokhlin, chairman of the Duma defence committee, and ex-Defence Minister Igor Rodionov, who labelled the treaty "treacherous."

Ironically, Rodionov was appointed by President Yeltsin to the Duma to represent official views on ratification and on the convention on banning the production and liquidating chemical weapons. Small wonder that both documents were black balled in the Russian Parliament while Rodionov was defence minister.

The main argument of the treaty opponents is that the treaty stipulates the destruction of Russia's most formidable weapon, the heavy strategic missile RS-20 Satan. Lev Rokhlin claims that the warheads of these missiles can evade any ABM system, including the Star Wars elements which President Reagan wanted to orbit. The liquidation of these missiles, Rokhlin says, will greatly reduce Russia's counterforce potential.

If the USA withdraws from the 1972 ABM treaty, the ratio will grow to 8- ( 15 ) :1.

Who will stand to lose if the Duma listens to national patriots? experts ask. The answer is clear: Not the Americans.

Nuclear and hydrogen missiles have lost their significance. Scientists in the USA and Russia alike have created weapons which are much more effective than nuclear charges.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:20 - ID#335190)
Russian General Lev Rokhlin @ U. S. State Department Report Hmmmmmmm

( US Congressional Report from the Congressional Record Online via GPO Access, May 10 '97. Obtained through BISNIS. See below for more on BISNIS. )

SENATOR ROBERT BYRD SPEAKING. Mr. President, American involvement and interests in the Caspian Sea Region, have been increasing recently. While this region is new on the political map of American policy-makers, in that the newly-sovereign nations there were formerly Republics under the rule of the Soviet Union, they represent very substantial new opportunities for the United States.

From the point of view of energy reserves, the tremendous hydrocarbon resources which are available for development in the region are of world-class potential.

Mr. President, the Senate will soon be taking up the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe ( CFE ) Revisions of the Flank Agreement. I find it disturbing that some of the governments most directly affected by this agreement, particularly the governments of Georgia, the Ukraine, and Azerbaijan have refused to sign the agreement.
I have received a letter from the ambassador from Azerbaijan on May 5, 1997, Mr. Hafiz Pashayev, in which he expresses his concern over what he describes as an imbalance of forces in the flank area, which includes his country, and says that the agreement poses a security concern for Azerbaijan.

In this regard, he points out that there are credible reports of the provision of massive Russian arms shipments to Armenia, which could well have the effect of further destabilizing the situation in the caucasus.
It is important to note that the chairman of the Defense Committee of the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, Mr. Lev Rokhlin, is reported, by Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya gazeta, to have revealed that elements of the Russian government or armed forces, from 1993-96, shipped some US$1 billion in arms to Armenia, including 32 R-17s, or Scud missiles and associated launchers, 82 T-72 tanks, 50 armored combat vehicles, various howitzers, grenade launchers, and other missiles and armaments.

This, of course, has alarmed American oil companies located within range of these missiles in Azerbaijan,

and the ambassador says in his letter that there is concern in his country that these military shipments have caused an imbalance in forces in the so-called "flank" area, and pose a
"security concern for Azerbaijan."

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:29 - ID#248180)
Why is Gold Down? This should be Bullish for Gold? Yes/No
Duisenberg says -- 5 ( ECB gold reserves to be 15 pct of total )
Date: 08 Jul 1998 12:01:43
Service: AFX

The initial transfer of foreign reserve assets to the ECB by national
central banks in the euro zone will take place on Jan 1, Duisenberg said.

The total value of the transfer will be approximately 39.46 bln eur.

The initial transfer will be in gold in an amount equivalent to 15 pct of the total sum, with the remaining 85 pct being transferred in foreign currency assets.
The precise modalities of the initial transfer will be finalised before the end of the year, he said.
Duisenberg stressed that the decision on the percentage of gold to be
transferred to the ECB will have no implications for the consolidated gold holdings of the ESCB.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:31 - ID#246224)
Willing to do my part.
Will pay anyone US$100 /ounce for their gold. A truly humaniarian jesture only out of great concern for those holding the worthless relic. I'm sorry but its the best I can do.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:35 - ID#288186)
Sorry Alan. Ok folks, I'm willing to pay 150.00 per oz for your Gold. Sorry.
That's the best I can do at this time...Fox-Man

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:38 - ID#280245)
Sorry this is so long...further editing obscures the links {:-)
Annex I
Report ( 1 ) by the Ecofin Council to the European Council on the preparations for Stage III of EMU

"that all Member States, whether adopting the euro or not, have a strong common interest in the good functioning of economic and monetary union and of THE EXCHANGE-RATE MECHANISM. As a consequence, all Member States will be involved in the dialogue on the issues raised by the move to Stage III of EMU, including monetary and exchange-rate matters as well AS INSTITUTIONAL AND BUDGETARY ISSUES;

9. also made it clear that an exchange-rate mechanism can help to ensure that Member States orient their policies to stability, foster convergence among the Member States not participating in the single currency, and thereby help them in their efforts to adopt the single currency. At the same time, it could also protect them and participating Member States from unwarranted pressures in the foreign-exchange markets. In such cases, it may assist non-participating Member States, when their currencies come under pressure, to combine appropriate policy responses, including interest rate measures, with coordinated intervention.

14. ERM2, just as ERM1, will require coordination of economic and monetary policies. The Treaty provides a good basis for the dialogue on assuring stability.

II. Ensuring budgetary discipline in Stage III of EMU ( Stability and Growth Pact )

Reinforced surveillance of budgetary positions
21. Each Member State will commit itself to aim for a medium-term budgetary position of close to balance or in surplus. This will allow the automatic stabilizers to work, where appropriate, over the whole business cycle without breaching the 3% reference value for the deficit.

Early warning system: monitoring and surveillance
25. The Commission and the Council will study these stability and convergence programmes and monitor Member States' budgetary performances with reference to their medium-term objectives and adjustment paths with a view to giving early warning of any significant deterioration which might lead to an excessive deficit. In such cases, the Council will address recommendations to the Member State concerned.

26. Adherence to the objective of sound budgetary positions close to balance or in surplus will allow a Member State to deal with normal cyclical fluctuations while keeping its government deficit within the 3% reference value. Nevertheless, to deter excessive deficits and to ensure that, should they occur, they are promptly eliminated, there is a need for detailed provisions for the implementation of the excessive-deficit procedure. A Council Regulation will provide for expediting and clarifying the procedure, in particular by establishing clear definitions and setting deadlines for the various steps. Once it has decided that an excessive deficit persists, and as long as a Member State has failed to comply with a decision under Treaty Article ( EC ) 104c ( 9 ) , the Council will, in accordance with paragraph 11 of that article, impose sanctions on a prescribed scale.

32. If a Member State fails to act in compliance with the successive decisions of the Council under paragraphs 7 to 9 of Article 104c, the Council will, in accordance with paragraph 11 of that article, impose sanctions INCLUDING A NON-INTEREST BEARING DEPOSIT. These sanctions would be imposed within ten months of the reporting of the figures notifying the existence of an excessive deficit. An expedited procedure will be used in the case of a deliberately planned deficit which the Council decides is excessive.

Structure and scale of sanctions

35. Whenever sanctions are first imposed, A NON-INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSIT SHOULD BE INCLUDED. This should be converted into a fine after two years if the deficit of the government concerned continues to be excessive. When the excessive deficit results from non-compliance with the government deficit reference value, the amount of the deposit or fine will be made up of a fixed component equal to 0.2% of GDP, and a variable
component equal to one tenth of the excess of the deficit over the reference value of 3% of GDP. There will be an upper limit of 0.5% of GDP for the annual amount of deposits. The amount of the sanction will be based on outcomes for the year in which the excessive deficit occurred.

COMMENT: Rememberthey are prohibited from linking the WORD gold with their currency, or the 'support' of their currencythey are NOT prohibited from using the element gold

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:38 - ID#24135)
Strange goings on ...
To all ..
Very strange ..
Jse-golds off 71 points as rand firms to 6.08 .. now
back out to 6.16..
RSA golds were strong last night in NY with rangy
at 15/16 = $0.94 but midprice here now is only about
Saw stock analyst on CNN last night explaning that
RSA gold were good value because of fall in Rand.
I wonder if anyone understood him.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:38 - ID#288186)
Oops. Thats Allen, not Alan.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:42 - ID#43185)
Gold is down because although the Euro bank will hold about 15% of it's reserves in gold ( which amounts to about 900 tons ) the wording can be interpreted that this now leaves the Euorpean central banks free to dispose of their remaining 12,000 tons of gold any way they see fit. This amounts to about 5 years supply at current demand and production rates.

Of course they are not going to simply start selling gold willy nilly ( can you see the French or the Germans or anybody for that matter selling all their gold because of their sudden new faith and full confidence in the yet unproven Euro and trust in their fellow Europeans? ) but the shock value of a possible, even if remotely possible, 12,000 tons of gold on the market has taken the price down for the moment until everyone has a chance to re-evaluate.

Jeil's charts for Homestake look less and less like pure fantasy. Just partial fantasy, eh?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:44 - ID#248180)
6Pack of Oil - It's about the Oil, the Whole Oil & Nothing but the Oil
OIL fuels the Engines of this here modern world economy. In real terms the most precious resource on the planet. It is to Governments & Business more precious than disease free plasma. It is the blood of economies. He who has the oil also gets the GOLD.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:53 - ID#335190)
Russian General Lev Rokhlin @ "OUR HOME IS RUSSIA" political party
World: Monitoring..........Rokhlin's last interview

Below are excerpts from an interview given by Gen Lev Rokhlin to Russian television just days before his death

After returning to civilian life, he was elected to the Duma as a member of the pro-government party Our Home is Russia.

I thought that if decent people came along it would change things, but experience has shown that when bad people are in power they don't let decent ones anywhere near them."

Rejection of rightwing extremism

"At the very first congress, our movement said that under no
circumstances would Nazis, nationalists or fascists be
allowed into its ranks.

Why not? Because there are a lot of experienced people in
our movement, who have seen life."

Yeltsin 'blackmailing' country with threat of war

"Yeltsin's main slogan is: you have no option; vote for me
because without me there will be a civil war.

Why should there be a civil war? Why should Russia be
governed by thieves and criminals? "...Everything is justified
by saying that a civil war is sure to follow, and more people
will die than in Chechnya.

Why? Excuse the expression, but let us get up and show the
regime, which has nothing to support it.

The miners just sat down on the rails, and the regime shook.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 09:55 - ID#248180)
Gollum - Thanks - No Way will they ever sell Gold Reserves into the Market
"Duisenberg stressed that the decision on the percentage of gold to be
transferred to the ECB will have no implications for the consolidated gold holdings of the ESCB."

This 15% announcement is an agreed stall. This 15% announcement assists toward providing some stability to the international currency caos. Any amount above 15% announced at this time would see increased caos. This modest 15% backing allows for the US$ & Yen to settle and later announce their 15% or better backing of the Yen, Yuan, US$. They will attempt to create a level playing field or the perception of one.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:02 - ID#277302)
I would really love to be the prick that bursts the American's $ bubble...
and so would hundreds of millions of other impoverished souls around the world, who desperately await the repatriation of their capital from the land of the All-Mighty Buck in order to revive their crumbling economies but Alas, the American is not about to relax his unrelenting grip on the world's balls, as a matter of fact, he continues to squeeze even harder. The American's latest, greatest invention...the "Inflation Indexed Bond" is yet another scheme devised to diminish Gold's credibility and promote the unsustainable rise of his AMB while the misery of impoverishment by way of currency devaluation continues to spread unabated around the globe.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:03 - ID#248180)
Central & Reserve Bank's GOLD - NEVER Hits the Streets/Markets
It is simply moved from one Central/Reserve Bank, from Nation A to Nation B.
The 15% Gold Backing is BULLISH for GOLD, if not today time will prove it to be so.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:11 - ID#210127) trades

back out of drooy...scalped a great big whole 1/16th.. damn it's hard to make a buck when you are going against the USG.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:11 - ID#348129)
All the best to you. Hope you pull through this turmoil OK. I hope that those who looted the Asian economies will be brought to justice someday...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:12 - ID#335190)
U.N. body sees Indonesian food supply worsening

JAKARTA, July 8 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia's food situation has worsened in recent months and it is likely the key August harvest of rice, the country's staple, will fall below target,

The rupiah was at about 2,400 to the dollar in July 1997; it is now trading close to 15,000.

Suharto tests strength in Indonesia power struggle

JAKARTA, July 8 ( Reuters ) - Just 50 days after he resigned and ended 32 years in power, Indonesia's former president Suharto is seeking to put his political strength to the test.

Suharto resigned on May 21, buffeted by a wave of protests against his rule amid a worsening economic crisis and riots in which about 1,200 people were killed. Harmoko was among the first of his supporters to call for his resignation.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:12 - ID#40760)
Nick@C -- gold nuggets?
I wish...

btw, I got my $100-150 per ounce for anyone who wants to sell their pieces of "barbaric relics"

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:13 - ID#340459)
Only 7% of current European CB Gold Reserves (900 tons out of 12,700) are officially required for
Euro. What baffles me is that why have the EMU not chosen a higher percentage as they could easily have gone for 30% without a problem.
Moreover, for any country that was falling short, they could have as easily procured it instead of $ or Yen. This action will directly result in further erosion in value of European CB gold holdings, Wouldnt they want better value in future for what they own and hold since a very long time. Secondly a higher percentage gold backing would have attracted more non -european global interest in that currency. I think that most people would have reached the same conclusion...Then WHY ?? I fail to understand the EMU logic ??

I am sure that they must have deliberated on it with input from prominent Economists, Govt. Treasurer's etc and documented minutes of these discussions / decisions..

Does Anyone have ideas about the motive for low percentage, It doesnt make a whole lot of sense to me.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:18 - ID#348129)
@FINANCIAL LOOTERS: Camdessus and now Duisenburg
As I expected, the selloff in European Gold will continue. The success of the Euro is based on destroying other currencies, namely Gold.
This will surely fail, but in the meantime the big winner will be the USD.

Wednesday July 8, 9:49 am Eastern Time

Toronto stocks seen opening easier, hit by

TORONTO, July 8 ( Reuters ) - Toronto stocks appeared poised to open softer on Wednesday, with the heavily weighted gold sector expected to reverse Tuesday's uptrend.

Gold eased in European spot trade on news that the yellow metal will make up 15 percent of the new European Central Bank's planned 39.5 billion Ecus ( US$43 billion ) reserves.

The bank also said members were free to chart their own course on future gold sales and were not constrained by the 15 percent level.

The sell-off was attributed to disappointment that the ECB had not mentioned any freeze on central bank sales by European countries nor made clear how reserves would be managed.

Gold had fixed higher in London before a news conference by ECB president Wim Duisenberg in Frankfurt, Germany.

``Seems like golds might be a bit easier,'' said one Toronto equity trader.

`` ( The Toronto stock market will ) probably be off a tick at the opening,'' he added.

The weak Japanese yen was another millstone around gold's neck. The yen sank despite a long-awaited pledge by Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to implement tax cuts in a permanent reform of the system. But while the yen rose initially on the announcement, it quickly reversed course as traders lamented the lack of detail in his comments.

Gold, one of the main engines of the Toronto Stock Exchange, helped equities to outperform New York on Tuesday. The Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite Index rose 20.13 points or 0.27 percent to 7454.60 points.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:18 - ID#113316)
Is the retrenchment in the POG and POS a knee jerk reaction to the ECB announcment of 15% gold reserves and the weakness in the yen vs dollar?

Since only recently it was announced that the ECB would hold 10% to 15% and yesterday's announcement was at the top of the range, then I do not see how this announcement should have caused the drop. On the other hand, the start of the drop coincided with more confusing signals from Japan on tax reform ( talk about jerks ) . Quite frankly, Japan is acting more like a third world country in handling its economic crisis than an economic giant. On an economic basis the dollar is at least 30% overvalued against the yen. If Japan takes the necessary steps, the dollar should fall to the 100 to 110 area as was mentioned in an earlier post. If Japan does not take the necessary steps, then some of the doomsday scenarios make more sense to me.

Gold priced in dollars is a victim of the Asian currency crisis. When, and if the currency crisis is addressed, the dollar will fall and the POG expressed in dollars will rise.

SIDE NOTE TO KUSTON ON YESTERDAY'S POSTS: sure by now you have read yesterday's closing numbers for the InterNet stocks and not the early morning report by Pristine Day Trader. My post was blood would be on the street today in the InterNet stocks. Check them out.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:19 - ID#43185)
Another, perhaps even bigger, factor why gold is down is further disapointment with Japanese announced efforts to deal with their problems. Among others, was the anoouncement that permanenet tax cuts would be implemented, but not until 1999. This of course disappoints those looking for something more immediate. There were several other bearish events also. The immediate result was to push the yen/dollar up once again.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:20 - ID#242325)
Gold Bull Does Not Require End of World
Martin Armstrong on gold and the year 2000 bug:

While we do see that a bull market for gold is likely leading into
2003 or perhaps even into 2007, we do NOT see that such a
trend requires the end of the world, merely a normal shift in
investment strategies. We do see that the Y2K problem could
push Russia into financial chaos and in this case there is little
that can be done. It is far more likely that a Russian revolution
may develop over Y2K problems than the collapse of western
civilization as a whole. We do recommend that you call your
bank and if they are NOT 2000 compliant, then switch to one
that is. Dont forget, if a bank is NOT Y2K compliant, it may
also not be able to cope with its impact insofar as the credit card
collection process either.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:20 - ID#335190)
Asia "TURBULENCE" ? @ Maintaining Stability?
Close military ties imperative to maintaining stability during Asian crisis, defense chief says

DARWIN, Australia ( AP ) -- Close military ties between western countries and Australia are imperative to maintain stability in the Asia-Pacific region during the "turbulence" of the Asian economic crisis, Australia's new defence chief said today.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:22 - ID#287337)
IDT's post on Japan - Princeton Economics Inst. article
indicates what I have felt all along. The Japanese are trapped- the LDP gov't is just reacting to the crisis by sticking their fingers in the dam whenever a new leak springs- but once the big breach happens they don't have the resources to bring things back under control.

Revealed losses are somewhere between $US500Billion and US$1Trillion. The gov't has set aside the equivalent of US$27Billion for the Bridge Bank. People familiar with the realities of bankrupt Japanese companies say that it is likely that every time a company goes under, ten times the "official" on-the-books debt will be uncovered, sort of like maggotts hiding under the rocks.

This is mind-boggling. Even conservatively, it seems likely that there is US$5trillion in bad private debt out there. This is equal to the entire national debt of the US- and the Japanese economy is half the size of the US economy. Add to this the Japanes national debt of US$3trillion and we're looking at a country with US$1.3trillion in reserves that they'll have trouble selling ( most of it is US treasury debt, that the US is leaning on them not to sell ) trying to cope with a US$8trillion problem. People can talk about national attitudes, who ought to do what, and propose all kinds of ways for the Japanese to get out of their mess, but there's a bottom line here: the Japanese just don't have enough money to deal with this one. It's easy to talk about mobilizing an internation rescue package- but no country, or consortium of countries can put up 10-figure rescue packages. Blithe talk about private capital being mobilized is absurd. There's about US$3trillion in private savings in Japan- but that's what people are planning on retiring with, they're not going to fork it over and risk living in poverty in their retirements if the debt resolution doesn't work. Liquidation of private property, such as real estate would creat a deflationary economic death spiral, which is why the gov't is scrambling around trying to find a way to cobble together rescue packages.

The Japanese could have survived this earlier. I think that they could have pulled themselves out of the quicksand five years ago, had some farsighted, courageous leader decided to deliver the strong medicine then. Now, their goose is cooked, they let it get too far out of hand and they don't have the resources to pull themselves out- and nobody else does either.

We're going to watch a slow-motion tragedy from the sidelines here, folks. It'll be like the sinking of the Titanic. There aren't enough lifeboats, and the ship is slowly, slowly going down. Some people will be running around frantically trying to do things, some people will calmly continue to do their duty, like the band that played hymns for the doomed passengers- but the ship is going to sink below the surface, and Japan is going to live through a period of 1930's-style misery that could lead to great changes in the world we live in.

To continue the simile- to my mind there are only two classes of folks who have managed to get aboard the lifeboats- those who sent their capital out of the country into US$ hedges, and those who have bought gold. IMHO- the US$ investments are more like an inflatable raft than a solid dory- just one sharp object might puncture your baloon, so-to-speak. Remember that PMs have been the only hedging option available in Japan to the "little people." Until recently investment overseas was severely restricted for individual investors. Did you ever notice how laws restricting currency exchange, foreign investment, cash withdrawals, etc., always seem to end up applying only to little guys like us? The politicians would never make the laws that force you and me into stupid investments apply to themselves, or the corporate fat-cats who fund their election campaigns.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:24 - ID#43185)
I'm not sure that the supporters of the Euro realize that their true enemy is the dollar rather than gold. If they want to make the Euro a sucess at some point they need to dump their dollar reserves in support of the new currency.

On the other hand, perhaps they are cleverer than we think. Perhaps all along they have been selling gold in order to have more dollars and other paper currency available for the dumping. If that is the case they might well start buying gold like crazy and dumping paper ( other than the Euro ) when the time comes.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:26 - ID#255151)
Gold at 150

If that happens, buy as many Mounties as you can, figuring on paying $200 per coin. Immediately resell to RCM for $310. Repeat until rich!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:27 - ID#43185)
@Steve in TO__A
Very well put.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:30 - ID#335190)
Institute of International Finance (Lobbying Group) @ Like who the hell are they ?????????
Banking group predicts Asian crisis will lower world trade

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Economic troubles in South Korea, Indonesia and five other hard-hit Asian countries will result in a $35 billion increase in America's trade deficit and depress growth around the world, according to a new assessment of the year-old currency crisis.

In the most detailed analysis yet of the cumulative effects of the crisis, the Institute of International Finance on Tuesday forecast a $115 billion hit in trade for industrial countries due to the Asian troubles and a $46 billion trade loss for developing countries.

The institute, a lobbying group for major international banks,

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:36 - ID#43185)
If it weren't for the politics involved, I think the new monetarists of the central banks would prefer to not have any of their assets at all tied up in non-interest bearing assets like gold. They also prefer liquid reserves over less liquid ones.

This view has served them well in recent years. Gold has declined in value ( a self fulfilling prophesy here, since their own actions were responsible more than anything ) and dollar denominated securites have done fantastically well.

They shall come to find, however, that volatility goes both ways.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:36 - ID#288155)
Behind the scenes...

4. The position of the 'yen currency region'

On April Iranian petroleum minister requested Japan to purchase crude oil in yen term. It isn't thought what Japanese petroleum company consents to for this time that US planned to enforce a Iranian embargo. It was a long-cherished hope of Japanese monopoly capital to import crude oil and other mineral resources that still occupy a large portion of Japanese imports to be priced in a yen. Priced in a yen, as an almost all contract of Japanese crude oil import is a long range contract, though crude oil of a spot trade is decided in the international market price, that are enough to be simply converted to a denotation. That rather are more efficient it is directly priced in a yen, also if making use of a financial future, of course. By a thing how a price formation is done at an international crude oil market may give an influence originally again, doing business is priced in a yen.
" yen currency region "
July 1995 Iwao Kitamura [translation from Japanese by Dr. Kitamura]

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:39 - ID#412273)
Those "dirty rotten gold hedgers"
It is intersting to watch the popularity of the "Mounties" $310 floor.

The buyers of these coins are buying are also hedging the gold price.

Anyone wonder how the Canadian Gov't hedges these coins?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:40 - ID#26467)
FWIW July 8 being important for its currency.The importance
of how much of a downward thrust it will develop,will effect
the gold in its downward slope.282 being a level to watch.
Have a good day and happy trading.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:51 - ID#288155)
Midas, re: European cb's gold holdings [or lack thereof]
It is, in the way of political 'solutions' quite convoluted. The gold holdings are transferred to the political enclaves, as it is they who are charged with budget integrity [perhaps an oxymoran for European gov'ts?]
and they who must be SEEN as having the reserve asset wherewithal to
pay fines should such be necessary.

To ascertain how much gold needs to be held look at the individual nation's GDP. They need to hold AT LEAST the percentage of GDP outlined in the schedule of sanctions.

The cb's --in the new economic order-- are charged with "price stability", which Wim defines as "credibility and transparency"...and there are more than a few interesting stories there too! {:- ) )

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:55 - ID#24135)
Look on the bright side ..
To all
Regarding the 15 % gold for ECB reserves .. Has
anyone considered that perhaps that is all the gold
the member countries would let Duisenberg have ?? I wouldn't
have given the Dutchman anything,

(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:58 - ID#187109)
John Disney and the Rand
some stuff you already know.....but is now getting good press.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 10:59 - ID#210235)
@Dear Jin
Thank you for reporting in to us once again. We have been closely following the news from your country and hoping that you will remain safe, and that the situation remains stable. The nature of the solvency crisis that is afflicting much of the world is like the wildfires we have been seeing in Florida and Mexico. You can watch and pray for an improvement in conditions, and that's about it.

Please know that you and your countrymen are in our hearts. We continue to hope that stability, to enable the movement of needed food and supplies, continues in your land.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:06 - ID#335190)
U.S. wholesale inventories rose in May

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Stocks of unsold goods on U.S. wholesalers' shelves rose in May, while sales declined, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted $277.54 billion after a drop of 0.6 percent in April.

Meanwhile, sales fell 0.3 percent in May to a seasonally $213.25 billion following an increase of 0.1 percent in April.

That pushed the inventories-to-sales ratio for wholesale goods higher to 1.30 months' worth in May from 1.29 months' worth in April.

Rising stocks of non-durable products such as oil, chemicals and drugs helped to drive the May inventories increase.

Inventories of durable goods, or long-lasting items, such as machinery, electrical equipment and metals also contributed to the rise.

But inventories of new cars and parts plummeted amid brisk sales.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:14 - ID#335190)
USofA GM Workers can Kiss their JOBS GOOD-BYE @ GM have great products to build off shore.
GM executive: 'No end in sight' to Flint strikes

DETROIT ( AP ) -- While pressure grows to end the United Auto Workers strikes at two General Motors Corp. parts plants by week's end, a high-ranking GM executive said Tuesday that there was "no end in sight."

GM needs to get its assembly plants operating soon to avoid losing thousands of sales to competitors as dealer lots become depleted later this month.

"Settling this strike remains a top priority and nothing is more important than getting all our employees back to work and building great products for our customers," he said. "It should be our mutual goal."

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:17 - ID#212323)
Rob (Mounties) and Prometheus (New Orleans)
Rob, the RCM need not engage in any hedging to protect themselves against a flood of Mounties presented for buyback because Mounties only sell for spot value when the POG is about US$310. When the POG is less, the Mounties are still sold for somewhere in the neighborhood of $325 to $330. Got it?

Promie...Will be in New Orleans July 24-28, and again perhaps in Sept. or October. Will be on the Chesapeake Bay Oct. 7-12 for sure. What's going on with you in Oct. in New Orleans?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:18 - ID#284255)
Clinton's New Federalism Is the Old Centralism
Russia and Y2K
Senate Y2K Committee Frets Over International Readiness,2334,13939,00.html

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:19 - ID#187109)
whooda thunk it?
gold and palladium trading places at 292-293......hmmmmmmmmmmm................bummer dude. scratch my shorts ( double meaning ) ( ? )


strange days indeed.....most peculiar momma.......... ( JL ) .

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:22 - ID#431200)
Royal Oak to hold a conference call on , July 8, 1998 at 2:30 p.m.toronto time( 416 ) 620-8863

Royal Oak plans to hold a conference call on Wednesday, July 8, 1998 at 2:30 p.m. Toronto time ( 11:30 a.m. Pacific time ) to present an update on the status of operations at Kemess. Analysts, investors and the media are invited to call ( 416 ) 620-8863 ( quoting reservation No. 933641 ) approximately five minutes beforehand. A replay of the conference call will be available one hour after the call ends and can be accessed by dialing ( 416 ) 626-4100 ( using reservation No. 933641 ) until midnight Friday, July 10, 1998.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:23 - ID#317193)
Gold only down about $2 -$2.50 US
If the CB's can't manipulate the price any better than this they are in big trouble.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:23 - ID#348129)
@ECB & RESERVES (or lack thereof)
Gollum: There are many things I still don't understand about what they are up to.
For instance, how can $43. Billion in foreign reserves be enough to prop up this new and untested currency?
The lame ass country I live in ( Canada ) , holds $20 B USD in reserves, and has major trouble supporting it's looney dollar.
$43 Billion for all of Europe ??? Should be enough to support the Euro for about 2 days. SOROS ET AL are smilling and salivating at the thought.........

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:24 - ID#269191)
European pronouncements on gold are irrelevant. Better to watch the U.S. economy
Europe has about 14,000 tons of gold and the European Central Bank will
hold about 1,000. The bulk of the remainder is held by Germany, Italy,
and France and they have said they won't sell. All in All very good but
totally irrelevant. The future of gold is dependent on the course of
short-term capital flows into the dollar. The really relevant events
to watch are the widening U.S. trade deficit, the slowing U.S. economy,
and the pressure these factors bring for lower U.S. short-term iterest
rates. When the U.S. is forced to cut rates, gold will make its move.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:24 - ID#212323)
Sorry for the misleading TYPO, Rob.
"about" should have been "above"...Mounties only sell for spot when the POG is ABOVE US$310.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:24 - ID#335190)
Democracy @ Junta
Nigeria's cabinet was dissolved today, one day after the surprise death of the country's most prominent political prisoner and while political violence swept some cities

ABUJA, Nigeria ( AP ) -- Nigeria's cabinet was dissolved today, one day after the surprise death of the country's most prominent political prisoner and while political violence swept some cities.

However, the Provisional Ruling Council, the core of Nigeria's ruling junta, was left intact.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:25 - ID#340459)
It is a Dog's life in USA..Man, do we have our priorities straight.

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07/08/98- Updated 11:12 AM ET
The Nation's Homepage

Doggie day care: It's a ruff life

NEW YORK - Bailey, a handsome blonde 2-year-old who still likes to
put most everything in his mouth, was ready to romp when his dad, Brian
Moretti, dropped him off at a downtown day care center the other day.
He couldn't get in the door fast enough. He could hear his friends down
the hall and was eager to join in. Breakfast was waiting. Then playtime,
then lunch, followed by a nap and a snack.

"He loves coming here," says Moretti, who works for a midtown law
firm. "He just plays all day."

It's a scene repeated thousands of times a day across America, but more
and more of those being dropped off at day care centers today aren't
children. They're canines.

Bailey is a yellow lab. His daytime home is The Wagging Tail Doggie
Day Care, and for $20 a day he gets an air-conditioned play room with
nonskid floors, special lighting to simulate the out-of-doors and trained
attendants who cater to his every need.

( If Bailey were smaller he'd also get a puppy slide, but that's in a
separate play area for the under-20-pound crowd. )

Keith Durst, 29, opened The Wagging Tail seven months ago when his
love of dogs overtook his love of law, which after law school he quickly
realized he didn't love at all. His is the newest doggie day-care center in
Manhattan, part of a growing trend fueled by high-powered professionals
who want more than just a hired walk around the block for their beloved

More than a kennel

Durst's center, like many of the new dog day-care facilities opening
across the country, is more than a kennel, although dogs can be boarded
here overnight.

Instead it's a day camp where dogs can wrestle with each other until
they drop, or sit on the window ledge and fall asleep in the sun. There's
rock music in the morning "to keep them upbeat" and classical music in
the afternoon "to calm them down."

At Doggy Do and Pussycats, Too, a doggie center on New York's Third
Avenue, they even read to the dogs. That's when they're not doing crafts,
like making Father's Day cards for Dad. Cost: $30 a day.

Lest one thinks this is a New York kind of thing, the trend is not confined
to Manhattan. The K9 to 5 Day Care Center in San Francisco has a
doggie jungle gym as its centerpiece.

"And we give report cards at the end of the day, telling the owners what
their dogs did that day," says Laura Hawkins Smith, owner of K9 to 5,
which now has a waiting list after a year and a half in operation.

And The Loved Dog Company in West Los Angeles boasts slides and
tunnels and leather couches where the dogs can rest after they've tired
of digging in the sandbox.

"It's very upscale but not froufrou," says owner Tamar Geller, who
opened the day-care center just over a year ago. "It's Sundance meets
Ralph Lauren." Cost: $25 to $30 a day.

At Wagging Tail, which can house up to 100 animals a day, dogs are
dropped off as early as 7 a.m. and picked up as late as 10 p.m.

Most are walked to the center, but some are driven in from Long Island
and New Jersey for the day.

"These are their children," Durst says, surveying the dogs playing in the
glass-walled area. "They expect us to take good care of them during the
day." ( A vet is on 24-hour call. )

Expanding demand

"I work such crazy hours. I couldn't leave him at home. I felt worse than
he did," says Jayna Pakman, a publicist for Miramax, rushing into the
Wagging Tail to drop off Picasso, her 4-month-old West Highland terrier.
"But now sometimes I feel he doesn't want to leave, that he wants to
stay over."

Business is booming so much - Durst says he's way ahead of first-year
projections - that he's looking at five other sites in the city.

Hawkins Smith also is planning to open a K9 to 5 branch in the Silicon
Valley by the end of the year, and this month will expand her operation to
include young puppy day care for dogs 12 weeks to five months.

"It will be more structured, with training," she says. A single visit will be
$40; $630 for a one-month package. ( The regular price at K9 to 5 is
about $30 a day, and $425 for the month. )

Entrepreneurs are jumping on the doggie bandwagon, too, selling their
day-care expertise over the Internet. Yuppy Puppy Dog Day Care in
Vancouver, B.C., is selling a start-up business package to get you going.
Price: $5,000. ( For more information, e-mail )

But don't even think about it if you don't like dogs, says Durst. While
every dog has his day, it doesn't mean it's meant for day care.

There are certain standards that have to be met first, he says. They have
to be social - no pit bulls allowed - and they all must have up-to-date
vaccinations. "If they don't have it, they can't stay,'' Durst says.

He can talk about his dogs forever, and admits that, as with children, the
personalities of dogs quickly become evident in such a setting - who's shy
( Amber the vizsla sits alone in the corner ) and who's the leader of the
pack ( Ozzy the Rotweiler parades around sporting a follow-me-boys
demeanor ) .

Just like kids

"They pick up their buddies and hang out with them all day," says Durst.
"Just like kids."

Durst doesn't send home report cards, but he does tell the parents if there
were problems during the day.

"I'll tell them that Ozzy acted up today, something like that," he says. "We
can't tolerate it here. We can't have trouble. We have a lot of very
wealthy people here who love their dogs. We have to protect them."

( Many of his clients are executives at Salomon Smith Barney's world
headquarters just a block away. )

Just then Durst sees trouble about to erupt.

"Mabel, cut it out!" he yells to a frisky boxer about to pick a fight. "The
first couple of hours in here and Mabel goes nuts."

Durst says that 5,500 dogs have come through in the first seven months,
but that only a couple of fights have erupted. Two dogs already have
been asked not to return.

"They weren't social enough," says Durst.

The human flunk-out rate is much higher.

"I've already fired 28 employees. If they don't love the dogs or are afraid,
then they're gone... I can tell immediately if they are good with dogs."

Durst likes to say his day care center has higher standards than those
serving children. "You'd be lucky to find a day-care center where all the
kids have all their shots."

He also boasts of a state-of-the-art ventilation system that eliminates any
trace of dog smells.

But some owners can't wait for pick-up time. Durst receives between 20
and 30 calls a day from the dogs' owners.

"'How's my little girl doing?' is a common question," says Durst, who
discourages lunchtime visits because it confuses the dog. "All they think
is, 'There's Daddy!' And then they want to leave."

To ease such separation anxiety, Durst is talking about putting cameras in
the play areas so dog owners will be able to bring the images up on their
computers at work and see their dogs playing.

Jonathan Herzog, an entertainment lawyer, is dropping off Tulsa, an
American foxhound. He doesn't need such a camera to know how his
dog is doing.

Tulsa, as is the way with the others, can't wait to get in the door.

"When he comes home he's so happy," says Herzog. "He gets up on the
bed and he's so tired he just collapses."

By Craig Wilson, USA TODAY

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:32 - ID#288155)
GOLD TRANSFERS--And this is an example of how it is accomplished...

N 0598 - 27 January 1998

Payment to the State following the sale of monetary gold by Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi ( UIC ) to Banca dItalia

This decision concerns a payment to the State following the sale of monetary gold by Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi ( UIC ) to Banca dItalia.
The accounting treatment of this transaction in terms of ESA 79 requires special attention because of the specific institutional arrangements in Italy.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:33 - ID#210235)
There's an investment conference in October in New Orleans.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:40 - ID#335190)
Russian General Rokhlin @ Nato & West & Yeltsin "DECEIVED" Russian's.
April 16, 1997


Russia Postpones START-2 Treaty Ratification

Russia: In an interview last week with Russian National TV, the chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Lt. Gen. Lev Rokhlin outlined the reasons behind the Duma's decision to indefinitely postpone the ratification of the START-2 strategic arms reduction treaty between Russia and the United States.

General Rokhlin stated that the ratification of the treaty was shelved because the Yeltsin administration had ignored repeated requests to provide the Duma with documented plans for the maintenance of Russia's nuclear deterrence capability in the aftermath of the treaty's implementation.

Rokhlin insisted that the treaty was disadvantageous to Russia, as its provisions call for the destruction of entire classes of missiles which would then have to be replaced to bring Russia up to treaty limits--something for which the Yeltsin government has failed to budget.
The US is only required to remove excess warheads from its missiles. He concluded that waiting for the START-3 treaty to remedy the deficiencies in the provisions of START-2 was unacceptable, as Russia had already been deceived by the West regarding the expansion of NATO, and would likely be deceived again on this issue.

The Duma's decision is a direct slap in the face to Yeltsin, who called for the treaty's quick ratification during his Helsinki summit with US President Clinton. It is also a ready-made bargaining chip for countering NATO expansion plans. Postponement will impede progress on the more extensive START-3 treaty and leaves the current nuclear disarmament process in limbo.

The West will be forced to balance the increased security expected from an expanded NATO with a potential reversion to the nuclear standoff of the Cold War.

Russia is no longer prepared to give something in return for the expectation of considerations to be named later.

1996, 1997, 1998 STRATFOR Systems, Inc.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:42 - ID#284255)
FEMA or Governors??

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:45 - ID#431200)

By LAUREN BARACKThe high-tech industry is now welcoming its latest billionaires to the fold. Founders of some of the earliest Internet companies have joined the ranks of other high-tech billionaires as Internet stocks continue a whirlwind climb. The co-founder of web portal Yahoo!, Jerry Yang, 29, entered the select group of monied moguls on Monday, following the lead of Yahoo! co-founder David Filo, 32, and's chief executive and founder Jeff Bezos, 34. Filo reached the billionaires' club last week. His 5.9 million shares of Yahoo! stock, or 12.8 percent of the company, was worth $1.1 billion after yesterday's close at 191. His co-founder Yang holds less stock - 5.7 million shares, or 12.2 percent of the company, which placed his worth just under $1.1 billion. Jeff Bezos first hit billionaire status in June. As of yesterday's close, his 19.8 million shares of the Internet book retailer, or 41 percent of the company, placed his net worth at $2.4 billion
Internet stocks' rocket rise slowed slightly in yesterday's trading.
Yahoo! closed down 4.1 percent at 191; slid 12.5 percent to 122; and search engine Lycos dropped 14.6 percent at 85 after surging to 99.56 on Monday when the company announced a stock split. "It is entirely possible that these stocks could come back to Earth, because they're out of orbit now," said Jim Balderston, analyst with Zona Research, based in Redwood City, Calif. But analysts are also quick to point out that even with the current surge among Internet stocks, and Yahoo! are unique by creating strong brand names early in the market place. was an early player in e-commerce, as was Yahoo! in the search engine ( portal ) business. "When you look at this space, these are category leaders," said Patrick Keane, an analyst with Jupiter Communications. As Internet stocks continue their growth trend - so do its users. Approximately 26 million households are online, according to Jupiter, which predicts that figure will jump to 57 million by 2002. The Internet's explosive growth prompts Balderston to call the recent Internet stock climb "betting on the future." Revenues for many 'Net companies aren't anywhere near what the stock market says they're value is. "Yahoo!'s valuations are greater than U.S. Steel," said Keane. "And its revenues are minuscule in comparison." Yahoo! was the brainchild of Yang and Filo, who started the web portal while they were graduate students at Stanford University in 1994. The pair worked in a double-wide trailer with computers borrowed from Stanford. The idea behind the portal was to catalog the co-founders' list of favorite 'Net sites - but the guide quickly grew to its own site later that year, following with an online and print magazine. Yahoo! went public in 1996 - opening its first day at $13 and closing at $43., also founded in 1994, was started by Jeff Bezos who was working on Wall Street building hedge funds for D.E. Shaw & Co. After learning that web usage was growing 230 percent a year, Bezos quickly left New York and started Amazon in a Seattle garage, taking the company public in 1997. Bezos, Yang and Filo join the exalted ranks of other high-tech billionaires, who include Gordon Moore co-founder of chip maker Intel, who is worth $7.5 billion; Larry Ellison, 53, co-founder of software company Oracle, whose worth has been pegged at $5.8 billion; Ted Waitt, founder of PC manufacturer Gateway, worth $4.3 billion; and Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, who for the fourth year in a row ranked as Forbes richest man in the world, worth $51 billion. And as technology stocks continue their rapid rise more people could join their growing group. "Although," said Keane. "It's hard to predict where the next billionaire will be."

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:46 - ID#43185)
I agree wholeheartedly. It all comes down to the dollar, the US economy, and interest rates. Especially if one includes how the US interest and currency rates relate to those of the other countries and their impact upon those economies which in turn effect capital flows into and out of the US.

Speculators, chartists, and knee jerk reactors may have a short term effect from day to day or hour to hour, but these effects are transitory and basic fundamentals will out in the long run.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:48 - ID#212323)
Promie...indeed, a name among many to be fond of.
And there is my best friend of over two decades who calls me Dunadan. In times like these it does help to remember that All that is gold does not [necessarily] glitter [all the time]...

got Canyon Resources?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:50 - ID#43185)
Yes, I think that as the Euro attempts to come online there are going to be some truly wonderful opportunities for fat cats like Sorros and his ilk.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 11:58 - ID#43185)
What a wonderfull thing
The inflation indexed bond. The more dollars come out of the economy buying inflation indexed bonds, the less inflation there will be. And one can sell them at a premium over normal bonds for their inflation insurance property.

What we need is to do is market our new concept, inflation indexed gold.
As inflation goes up so does the price. Not only that, but because of it's durability we offer on interest rate at all.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:01 - ID#43185)
I think goblin's gonna be out hunting silver bears today.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:05 - ID#24135)
Good One
For MoreGold
Solid Observation .. Germany itself holds about
$75 bill France $30 Bill and Spain $68 bill ( !!!! ) .
On the other hand, USA only hold $60 bill .. but all
these numbers EXCLUDE GOLD. Source "The Economist".
What is going on here ??? The ECB is going to
hold about half the reserves Germany holds????

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:05 - ID#335190)
Burson-Marsteller @ AID & USofA Taxpayer's wealth and Kazakhstan PR. (welfare for whom?)
August 1997

Aboard the gravy train: In Kazakhstan, the farce that is U.S. foreign aid

By Matt Bivens
( editor, St. Petersburg Times )

So I turned to the Dark Side of the Force. I applied for a job in public relations.

I had heard of an opening in Almaty, Kazakhstan, with the New York-based Burson-Marsteller, the world's largest public relations agency, and although I once would have scoffed at the idea of working in P.R., I quickly convinced myself that this posting would be different:
Burson-Marsteller was working under a contract from AID -- the U.S. Agency for International Development -- and this meant that I would be helping the Kazakhstanis, not shilling for some corporation.

With the money returned, the pressure to leave journalism was off, and I thought briefly about turning down the P.R. job. But there was really no turning back now; Burson-Marsteller had made me an offer I couldn't refuse: $53,518 a year after taxes, insurance benefits, free housing, a driver, a maid, a $2,000 moving allowance, and an additional $25 per diem ( $9,000 a year ) in spending money. All told, a $70,000-a-year package; after only a few months, it would grow to $90,000. I was twenty-six.

The main event of every day was lunch. Lunch was always at a fancy restaurant, with your driver waiting out front. More than thirty-five U.S. companies or organizations were on the AID payroll in Kazakhstan, offering advice on everything from drafting laws to wearing condoms, and every single one of them seemed to be as high on lunch as Burson-Marsteller was.

Yes, almost everyone was winning: young Americans with fat pay-checks, corporations with fat contracts, bureaucrats fattened by theft. Only those involved abstractly were losing: the American taxpayer, whose altruism had been twisted; and the Kazakhstanis, who were seeing Soviet corruption thrive on American aid.

Congress sets aside billions; AID gives it to Americans. Proud U.S. government spokesmen inform the Kazakhstanis that they will soon benefit from millions of dollars in aid. Instead, they are saddled with hundreds of American "experts," and to the humiliating injury of publicly receiving humanitarian aid is added the insult of not even getting it.
Feeling cheated, the bureaucrats scheme, and soon they are steering what's left of the foreign aid toward friends or relatives or themselves. [2]

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:05 - ID#284255)
Consultant Says Euro is More Important Than Y2K

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:16 - ID#252107)
Armstrong Maybe Right
Never thought it was possible to see gold under $300, yet it is here. I never thought US would see balanced budget, it's here. I never thought Euro would go thru - it did. Never thought Japan would collapse - it has. Maybe Armstrong's global view is spot on. Chaos everywhere forces dollar back to 1985 levels and that means bad news for metals. If new lows come after his July target in gold, I give up. Will wait to buy gold back at $200 next year. He may be buying gold mines in Australia, but he sure as hell is not interested in buying them in US$ terms. It is a global economy folks. Maybe we should pay attention.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:17 - ID#350179)
Mine firm may face new charges

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:19 - ID#317193)
EBC...believe what they do...not what they say...
As others hae posted the talk of the EBC makes no sense if you add up the numbers. Maybe they are not being truthful? Really.

This manipulation is a joke! We watch this old gold market together until it becomes the new gold market. Yes? ANOTHER may have many valuable THOUGHTS. Currency crisis...really!


(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:19 - ID#28994)
Mo Re Go Ld
Canada, I thought, sold most of their reserves a few years ago. Then the Canadian dollar headed for the ditch. You say they hold 20 Bil. in reserves, but their dept is over 700 Bil., is it not?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:19 - ID#43185)
@TYoung (Gold only down about $2 -$2.50 US)
Shhhh. Let's not taunt them.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:21 - ID#43185)
We would like to encourage you to think we will never see gold over $900 in the next year or so.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:30 - ID#252107)
I can still believe in long-term, its the next year that bothers me. If $9 trillion is freed-up in Japan in Dec as Armstrong reports, I don't think a war in Europe will stop the dollar from rising. In fact, dollar record highs came in 1918, 1931 and 1944. Seems depressions and war send dollar straight up. Gold's high was 1980 with 15-20% inflation, Carter as president and budget deficit exploding. Everybody is in far worse shape that we are in US. I don't feel compelled to convert my dollars to DM if Russia defaults or to yen given what I have read about Japanese banks. That to me means only the dollar thank you. How much longer I don't know. But it looks to me that it is going to get worse before it gets better. $900 gold? maybe in 5 years certainly not next year.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:30 - ID#317193)
Sorry, I'll be quiet now...Mum is the word. To many people are buying gold with those valuable US$'s. Wonder why? Could we be in the midst of a currency crisis? YES.

Shhhh...don't tell anyone that either.


Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:42 - ID#377196)
What does a 15% gold backing mean to a currency? It means that when
the currency goes bad only the big boys get back their money. That's
what happens now. The IMF bailouts are not bailouts for the countries
but for the banks. So a 15% backing doesn't mean anything and if it
doesn't mean anything then why are they doing this charade?

I, like you can only guess. But we all know one thing for sure: CB's
are not in the business to insure a profit to gold speculators and
especially not to gold bugs.

CB's are in business to stay in business. They love the power and the
perks. They don't want gold to be money. But even more important I
think is the math. It is simply not possible to back any fiat currency
at the present time with 100 % gold. The price would have to be too
high and they are not about to remove the emperor's clothes themselves.

Gold backing can ony happen after a severe deflation which eliminates
much of the outstanding debts. Of course at that point backing the
currency is just a formality. I have often looked at the idea of the
Euro as nothing but a stalling move to keep the price of gold down.

This allows the present situation to continue. All is well, don't
worry, be happy.

I don't know what they have in mind but it is not for our benefit.
Gold will rise when the people of the US see that the dollar is
no good and not before. I do think that the more the establishment
tries to put on a good face the more scared they are. We are close
to a gold move. I did see a chart on the asian currencies as they
rose in value and just before the big move there were two violent
fall backs. So I expect the same here. I'm not giving up my positions
for the following reason: when the big move has come in EVERY OTHER
currency it has come so fast that you could not get back in without
paying a big price. This has cost me-but my day is coming. GO GOLD

Thanks GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:50 - ID#340459)
@Gollum, SDRer.. If EMU envisions that the Euro's strength is dependant on values of US$ or Yen,
Then why would non-europeans or other global investors be interested in euro while they can directly buy $ or Yen instead of euro paper dependant on other paper.

I guess the primary function of euro could be to consolidate and destroy the individual currencies and bring it under one organization that could be controlled which may automatically alleviate Nationalist identity and ideas.

It is a harbinger of New World Order, the rapid and consistent mergers of Big Banks throughout the World also indicates that a global pyramid of finance and Industry is under construction that will be overseen by an all seeing eye ( This Masonic symbol is on every Dollar Bill, in plain sight for all to see, So are the words 'New World Order' in Latin ) .

Since it's inception, the actions of IMF has only resulted in decimitating the economies of the poor Nations, constant erosion of their already weak currencies, garnering of their National wealth and getting them mired in ever increasing debt. ( only Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia has the guts to say this openly ) Anyone of these nations defying IMF directives have suffered dire consequences, loss of foreign investment through Moody downgrades on their creditworthiness etc.,

Power's that be knows that funding IMF ( specially when using Tax payer's dollars ) is a small price to pay for keeping a financial stranglehold on vast pools of global resources and maintain cheap supply of labour.

The select group of Key Market Maker's in global bourses know this game well and well versed in creating wealth ( by pumping up the speed on their paper printing capabilities and then marketing their paper values upwards through 'safe haven' or 'flight to quality' propoganda ) .

If one looks at US $, ALL OTHER CURRENCIES have to lose value relative to it over a period of time as evident to us in last 100 years, NO Currency has appreciated against US $.

The game goes on, Why allow the 'Farm Animals' to know the value of what God's earth produces as subsequently controlling it's supply would be impossible,
Lead them to slaughter as They are all now true believers and dutifully follow this Pied Piper's tune and it's paper trail.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:52 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-platinum
After the relatively large run-up in platinum the last couple of days, I expected to see some profit taking today. And indeed, plat dropped five or six bucks on the open, but now has rebounded and appears to be resuming its upward surge even in the face of some heavy selling this morning.

What's the consensus here? Is this latest rebound REAL bullish -- or utterly meaningless?

RJ, EB: Where ARE you??? How high are we likely to go before Oct options expire?

Anyone else? Gratefully awaiting ANY input on "rich man's gold." ( HA! That moniker alone should tell me get out and STAY AWAY! But I'm too stubborn, or dumb, or greedy to pay attention . . . )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:52 - ID#29048)
The market seemed to be confused....

He also said at a news conference that he wanted to bring under ECB control the foreign reserve asset operations -- including gold -- of Europe's national central banks.

Dealers said the market seemed to be confused about the degree of control the ECB would then have over the national central banks' gold reserves.

``We are totally confused. It is clear to us that ECB is going to take control of the ( national central banks' ) gold reserves which means there can't be free-for-all gold sales,'' one dealer said.

He said the market seemed to have reacted negatively to the news although there still seemed to be a good chance for the European Central Banks to buy more gold than they sold this year.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:54 - ID#252150)
Midas@Why only 15%? Very simple. The whole world is devaluing & since their
economies are export dependant, why would they want to start off with too strong a currency? Besides, they are actually declaring their didain & independance from AU.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:55 - ID#373284)
My money is on Islam, they believe...they have trillions...they hate whitey and I
can tell you whitey ain't as ready to jump up on the cross as followers of Islam are ready to meet their maker. What does that mean...a billion times how many Dinars...

Get ready boys and many parts of the world computers don't mean a damn thing...and many of those are the bazzars where life will go on... Dinars will pass from hand to hand...

Just a thought...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:55 - ID#210235)
@Strider - we shall sing this one for Jin today
O! Wanderers in the shadowed land

despair not! For though dark they stand,

all woods there be must end at last,

and see the open sun go past:

the setting sun, the rising sun,

the day's end, or the day begun,

For east or west all woods must fail

(Wed Jul 08 1998 12:55 - ID#227238)
6pak @12:05: Kinda makes one sick at the stomach; doesn't it? Just another revelation in support of the contention that all aid programs are intended for the middle class and merely use the needy as an excuse for their existence.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:00 - ID#377196)
But you knew that
I meant to say when the price of gold rose in the other currencies...

Thanks, GD

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:04 - ID#212323)
The euro
Clearly, the framers and movers of the EMU do not want the Euro to be stillborn, nor do they want it to be born into a mature vigorous position such as the USDollar now holds--with the only logical direction to move being downward in an ever tightening spiral. Ideally, they want the world pretty much as is when the Euro comes on-line January 1, 1999. If the USDollar can be maintained at its lofty position until then, the Euro may act as a surrogate for gold as the logical flight to safety from an inevitable downward adjustment of the Dollar. Momentum these days is everything. Markets and currencies are moved up simply because they are moving up, and likewise they move down because they are moving down. Bandwagoning at its finest.
The Euro must not start feeble, and indeed it won't because it will represent 11 reasonably solid ( currently ) European currencies that have simply become fixed to one another versus a currently floating exchange rate. Any worldwide movement out of the Dollar will find the Euro as a natural choice. Speculators should all recognize that the Dollar is unsustainably strong whereas the Euro will have ample upward potential. Remember, with fiat currencies perception and confidence is EVERYTHING. With the Dollar moving downward and the Euro moving upward the stage is set for a new preeminent world reserve currency.
Frankly, I am not surprised by a seemingly low inventory of approx. $50 billion foreign exchange reserves. After all, they won't likely be in the position to need to defend the Euro on the world market with too much vigor. How often does the US find itself defending the Dollar by selling DEM's, FRF's, GBP's, etc or gold? Seldom done when you're the top dog.
And as I've stated several times in the past, do not worry about the "overhang" of gold remaining under individual national control ( although Sequin says ECB will have ultimate control of it ALL--Hmmmmmmmm...I don't know about that ) , worry instead about the overhang the individual Central Banks will have of paper foreign exchange inventory no longer needed for reserves. What would YOU do with it? I'd buy gold. After all, any government can print paper as needed, but they can't print gold; governments do not mine gold, PEOPLE mine gold. They won't let this gold out of their hands simply because the misguided world populace has successfully been temporarily deluded into viewing gold as a simple commodity.
And as SDRer valiantly continues to bring forth the evidence, on the international banking and financial scene, they all know the true nature of paper; that is why gold remains a necessity and won't EVER be dishoarded by Central Banks.

Sorry for all the typo's, but I am very short on time.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:04 - ID#227238)
Ron ( in sack-o-platinum ) : Platinum continues to look pretty good. It refused to fall below yesterday's low and has recovered nicely to $1 up on the day. ....Whoops. Up $2 as we speak ..... $383.60 basis PL8V. Today's action just a test of strength??

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:04 - ID#335190)
Russian General Rokhlin (All-Russian Movement)@ OUR HOME IS RUSSIA Party, Lead by YELTSIN
[NUPI - Centre for Russian Studies]
08. juli 1998 -

Does Rokhlin movement approach communist opposition ?

Date: 06.08.97
Type of event:
Details: According to RFE/RL Newsline, State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Lev Rokhlin says that at its founding congress in September, his movement to support the armed forces and defense industry may call for the resignation of the president and prime minister and the formation of a "government of national trust.

These demands echo positions long taken by the Communist opposition, which already has several representatives on the organizing committee of Rokhlin's movement.

Although Rokhlin may be expelled from the Our Home Is Russia Duma faction in September, he cannot be removed from his Defense Committee post as long as he has the support of Communists and allied groups who have a majority in the Duma.

According to the 5 August "Kommersant-Daily," Rokhlin also warned that Russia is becoming a police state as the army's ground forces are downsized and the Interior Ministry troops increased.

The Rokhlin announcement coincides with an announcement made by Aleksandr Lebed on behalf of his "Popular Republican Party" and the "Congress of Russian Communities" in Tula, that both movements might join the Rokhlin-planned All-Russian movement ( NeGa, August 5 ) .

This would imply the formation of a powerful "patriotic" bloc within and on behalf of the Russian armed forces under the auspices of the communist opposition. These prospects are rather gloomy since this time, president Yeltsin will have few possibilities to incorporate resurgent generals into his own political house, like he did when Aleksandr Lebed was appointed chief of national security in June 1996.

Moreover, the financial turmoils in the "Yeltsin house" over privatization sales has revealed a fundamental lack of internal unity and coherence, which makes it hard to believe that the expulsion of Rokhlin from the government party will have any punitive effect. For the part of the communists, the incorporation of Rokhlin will mean a widening of the electorate and also a give a substantial ideological surplus.

Sources: RFE/ RL Newsline

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:05 - ID#43185)
Over the years Europe has had various economic problems. There are those who blame many of the problems on the fractioniztion caused by so many separate countries operating in what is essentially one marketplace. Thus there has arisen a feeling of the need for a common market, a common currency, to wit a common europe. With no doubt a merging of the various stock markets and bourses into a single entity.

In the real world there can be only one prime currency. Just as with Gresham's law the prime currency will drve down all others. At this moment in time the prime currency is the dollar. If the proponents of the Euro want it to become the new prime currency they will have to defeat the dollar. Else the Euro will be just another dollar wannabe.

In the long view there is only one common market, namely the global market. After many years of turmoil there will eventually come to be just one common global currency. The age of communication and computerized trnasactions is hastening that day. Both by making the root causes of trends and events more visible and by increasing thier rate of development.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:08 - ID#373284)
The Coward Erect at work in OUR house...he WANTS revolution, o'tay............
One of the best things...I want to see who is going to follow the Coward into battle when he signs his Executive Weeney Order...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:10 - ID#43185)
When did dollar record lows come? And why?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:14 - ID#246224)
SDRer, I must admit ..
that I can not figure out how you manage to filter through all the arcania without slumping off to sleep on occation. Is it like a crossword puzzle addiction? I understand there are some who can not get away from them. You would probably make a very good detective!

Will you ever write an unauthorized biography of the BIS???

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:15 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-platinum
Hi, Earl! Test of strength, yes, and it looks like it's passing with flying colors. I do recall RJ predicting it could run far and run fast, and it sure looks like it's beginning that move to me. Here's hoping that it is.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:16 - ID#43185)
no goblin today?
Goblin had seemed very weak last week or two, but now seems altogether non-existant. He's either witing for the market close or else he's gone. I guess he can't take the summer heat.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:18 - ID#212323)
Promie...From memory?
Nice to take a few steps with you in the Old Forest.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:24 - ID#373284)
The USA is becoming more like the old USSR each and every day and the USSR
is becoming like the old USA each and every day. Right now we still eat better...but we are a police state, over there people are fighting and dying against the Central government...uh huh...Commissar Klinton...

Think about it...AMERIKA...What do you want to bet when AmeriKans are starving...Commissar Klinto will be eating caviar, steak and drinking champagne...uh huh...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:24 - ID#431366)
You will be crying in your Golden Cerveza
Bill2J is mucho correcto.
Past experience can no longer be counted upon.
Whether it is the weather & crop planting patterns,
Or the solar constant and temperate seas,
Or Gold goes up when markets are in turmoil,
Or Golds traditional value as a monetary reserve.
Gold at $150 is the optimistic guesstimate.
You best sell now while you can -
you can bet the CBs have been doing so.
This long horizontal channel does not define a bottom.
It defines a TOP.
CBs, mining companies, governments, and other
powers in the world are trying to keep the POG *up*
while they unload their Golden any way they can
as they keep up a paper facade to convince otherwise.
When they finally get rid of what they wish to sell
THEN they will announce that they have sold
and look out below
Gold shall sink to its jewelry and industrial value
similar to where Silver is or has been
US$40 per ounce will look good, $10 will be normal.
You will be crying in your Golden Cerveza!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:24 - ID#246224)
You will not need to worry about him. It is the ones after him that will cause us the most trouble. I do not believe he will complete his tour of duty.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:25 - ID#286250)
Allen(USA) There is some ill a-brewing towards my rest. For I did dream of money-bags tonight!

PLEASE note the distinction: gold is a FINANCIAL ASSET. The legal staff at the Union speaks! {:- ) )

No 24/97
26 March 1997
Accounting rules

3. Index-linked bonds
Eurostat has decided that in the case of `index-linked bonds, two distinct treatments should be applied, depending on whether the bond is linked to a consumer price index or whether linked to a financial asset such as a foreign currency OR GOLD.

In the case where the bond is linked to a consumer price index, the `capital uplift due to the movement of the index is to be regarded as interest. The interest should be recorded at redemption of the bond. This confirms the treatment of such bonds by the UK authorities.

IN THE CASE WHERE THE BOND IS LINKED TO A FINANCIAL ASSET SUCH AS A FOREIGN CURRENCY OR GOLD, the `capital uplift should not be regarded as interest but as a `capital gain / loss, as is the case for bonds issued in foreign currency. This confirms the treatment of such bonds by the Greek authorities.

The rationale behind this treatment is the following: when linked to a consumer price index, the capital uplift ensures a purchasing power: this uplift has thus the characteristic of interest. Such is not the case when the capital of the bond is linked to a financial asset submitted to market prices variation and thus with more uncertainty.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:27 - ID#252107)
Gollum: Dollar Record low for this century is only 1995
So far everyone is say dollar must crash. It has just started to rally only for last 3 years. The record high came in 1931 during great depression. All of Europe went into default except Swiss while even mighty Britain suspended gold payments & its debt for about 6 months. Seems like everone want dollar to keep going down including US treasury. But the world is worse outside of US and I think this is being severely overlooked by many.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:30 - ID#174239)
Bank Software and Y2K
Mortgage lendors must have dealt with thier Y2K problems 27 years ago since 30 year loans are so common. If the computer thought a loan written in 1970 would expire in 1900, would the books balance?

Banks issue credit cards have expiration dates that go beyond the 1900's. I've had a card rejected because of this, so people are already forced to resolve this problem now.

Banks also issue CDs that go beyond the turn of the century. I think the 5 year CD is the longest term my bank issues. They must have dealt with Y2K in 1995 for that sub-system.

For my account, I beleive that I get interest based on the daily average. There is no crossover point involved. Dec 1999 will have 31 days with normal withdrawals and deposits. The bank software will somehow average this out and add the interest to my account. In January 2000 it will do this again at the end of the month. Even if it is confused and thinks that the year is 1900, it shouldn't matter since nothing that happened before January is taken used to determine what my interest will be.

Checks get posted to the account when the bank pays them. Even if the computer thinks the check was cashed in 1900, I don't think it knows or cares when the check was written. Many checks are supposed to expire after 180 days or something, so this may not happen if the bank belives the check was written 99 years in the future.

January 1, 2000 is a saturday. I belive that all banks will be closed during the Y2K transition, preventing one bank from transfering money in 1999 and the reciving bank thinking that the transfer started 99 years in the future. Even if this did happen I suspect that bank money transferes have so much error checking that a botched transfer either won't go thrugh at all or will be re-tried until it does work right.

This is all speculation as a lay person with no inside banking experiece. I would be very interested to hear from somone who has written software for banking functions.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:34 - ID#286250)
The past defines the future?
Montani, Guido
The European Government of the Economy.
The start of European Monetary Union in 1999 and its sustainability are continually under discussion because the future of the political union is uncertain. Added to this, the European economy has been in crisis for a long time, as witnessed by the persistently high rates of unemployment. This article examines the relationship between the need to complete the construction of the Monetary Union with a federal government.

Before analyzing the most appropriate policies for the development of the European economy, the author briefly describes the historical typologies of the two monetary systems to which continual reference is made, pointing out that comparison with the gold standard and the gold-exchange currency is important to establish to what extent the European currency is linked to the past and to what extent it is innovative.
Identificateur MF-126756;RA/00406-Y97
BBL {:- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:51 - ID#373284)
People in the USA are the most spoiled on the face of the Earth. They over think and analyze everything. They also think they DESERVEthey have rights dont you knowthey for the most part have no tangible wealth. Their money is paper or electronsthe things they have are in fact owned by their credit card companies and or the banks.

Low and beholda major market downturnand Y2Kwhat you sayit cant happen herebut I say it can, it will and those that do not hold the metals and other tangibles and hold not any debt will be the ones who survive.

Those who do not will be a penny a dozenused to be a dimeno, no, nonot this time around

There is no global village, it is a fantasy, do what you willnowwhere is that wall map and my dart setuh huhnobody owes me a dime, nor me them

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:55 - ID#373284)
Do I see gold, that worthless metal moving back shocking...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 13:59 - ID#252107)
tolerent1: US Spoiled? I think it is socialist Europe
Germans get 6 weeks vacation + 6 weeks sick leave. Now that's spoiled

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:00 - ID#413195)
Euro Articles in Der Monat
All: While trying to find more stuff on the euro, I ran across this: . Unfortunately, for us illiterate merkans, all the articles are in German, but I suspect, are very enlightening for anyone interested in the euro's investment implications . . . So, your mission, should you decide to accept it: Download and read the articles, sharing anything you find of interest with your fellow non-german speaking Kitcoites, particularly as it relates to gold . . . Danke. :- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:01 - ID#252107)
Tolerent1: Germans get off 25% of the year
that's why unemployment in Europe is 2 to 3x US rates

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:07 - ID#24135)
What Reserves ??
To all
On the subject of RESERVES. I was looking at the
data in a back issue of The Economist ( March 1998 ) ..
South Korea .. $24 billion ex gold
Indonesia .... $18 billion " "

Now .. This level of reserves was completely inadequate
to protect the economies of these countries. Perhaps
as much as 10 times that would have been required. And
these are tiny economies relative to Europe.
The need for reserves to protect the CURRENCY is only
one aspect of RESERVES.
Another is to protect the economy of the country.
Korea collapsed because it had insufficient reserves.
It was forced to mobilize Gold from its Citizens to help
pay its debts. It was not able simply to print the
extra money as required. Europe wont be able to either.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:09 - ID#368244)
@ The Hairy One
I love a man with convictions as long as he puts his money where his mouth is. Being the good natured guy that you are, save a place at the table for us misguided Goldbugs. OK!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:12 - ID#288186)
Grizz@13:24....Sorry. I just can't see Gold going under 100/oz much less
200/oz. If we're looking at the dollar priced value of Gold to go
down that far ( even below 280 in my opinion ) , there most certainly
would have to continue to be a Goldilocks economy in the U.S., a
stability of the global currency crisis, an ever rising U.S. dollar, and
peace and bliss. Also, I don't see how you know the CB's are currently
selling their gold on the open market. My understanding is that the
sells are between CB's and not hitting the open market. Is this
correct? Anyone?
Thanks, Fox-Man

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:14 - ID#253153)
A massive depression to unfold in the US starting in 1999
The US and the rest of the world have failed to recognized the importance of gold backed currencies and have created a floating currencies system which is doomed to fail. It will require a massive depression to force politicians and central bankers to change their minds
and implement gold backed currencies system.. There is no way out, a depression now is a certainty. I believe we are looking at a very long depression and the destruction of most of the debt world wide. I hope this depression will not invite WW3 . I feel bad posting this message, but this is the truth the way I see it. I was very bullish on common stocks between 1982-and Feb 1998. In Feb 1998, I concluded that we have entered a runaway deflationay phase. Now is the time to prepare for this coming event.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:15 - ID#377196)
John Disney
Good point on reserves. Are you saying that in a fiat money system
reserves are fiat as well and therefore "not worth anything?"
Or is it that it is impossible in a fiat/debt system to "save" period
because there is never enough of it to save compared to the debts

Thanks GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:20 - ID#373284)
jefsilver7_A, Namaste' I would say you are going to have to frame out better
evidence to convince me...And you should not just utilize Germany as it pertains to this particular conversation. In addition the UN-employment numbers as put out by the fraud government of the Coward Erect are a bold faced lie. The number are far higher, far, far higher.

During the coming weeks and months the UN-employment numbers will climb so fast even the Coward Erect will have to grow wings just to stay above his own b_ll_hit...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:22 - ID#286234)
From Boy Scout days I was taught that if Old Glory touches the ground, the proper thing to do to preserve its dignity is burn it. What will happen to that honorable tradition? I've heard the British love their flag so much they put it on everything including diapers, now that is gross!:- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:24 - ID#317193)
Don't telll anyone what tolerant1 said about the price of gold going the other way, OK?


Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:25 - ID#377196)
Unfortunatly I agree with you about there being no end of this
madness until a depression wipes out the debts. However, I do believe
that there will be one more inflationary blow-off coming as a response
to the year 2000 and to labor playing catch up in wages. In the end
it won't stick but will be enough to get gold to $450 to $500 and the
Nikkei to 25,000 to 27,000. Then I see everything heading lower and I
mean lower

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:28 - ID#215235)
Option Price Web-site
Can anyone give me the address of a web-site that provides current options prices for the S&P and XAU?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:31 - ID#368244)
Perfect world

In this New World, this perfect world, golds value will be about $100 an ounce. I place this value on it because it has some unique qualities.

All it takes for this to happen is , loving ones brother or sister, as he loves himself. I see this happening tomorrow, I might add...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:31 - ID#431263)
HAAAA! HAAA! HAAAA! HAAA! Perhaps the reason your Deeps aren't going up, Diz, is because of the awesome strength of the rand @6.17! LOFLOL! Ever heard of anything other than Yahoo and AMZN going up in s traight line? If the RSA stocks were going up because of the falling rand then they must be going down because of the rising rand, nicht wahr? HA! HA! HA!
Hedgehog's got it right about LIHIR and you got it wrong about the rand and the future of the RSA and its brilliant leader, Nelson Mandellastein!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:33 - ID#288186)
Dutchman; Here is a great site for current options prices. I'm not sure about
the XAU, though... Here it is...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:39 - ID#28593)
In Search of a Tougher Cop: The BIS could get a wider monitoring role

Partly because of perceptions that the International Monetary Fund has become too powerful, governments are now considering a wider role for the BIS. Pakistan Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz says that the BIS could provide daily reports on the trading levels of each currency to give monetary authorities a better grasp of currency market movements. Some blamed speculative currency trading for East Asia's financial meltdown. Mark Hansen, Jakarta-based banking expert with consulting firm Booz-Allen & Hamilton, says the BIS could be instrumental in upgrading banking standards and providing technical assistance to regulators.

There have also been calls for the creation of an Asian BIS to enhance regional cooperation in such areas as bank supervision and reserve management. A group of 11 East Asian central banks already meets informally to discuss these issues. Philippine Central Bank Governor Gabriel Singson, a key promoter of an Asian BIS, says that the idea needs to be discussed further in light of the economic crisis. One essential question is whether the bank's role would go beyond monitoring to providing financial assistance. If so, member banks would have to be prepared to contribute funds for that purpose

"Asia must find a solution to the debt market," says Hong Kong Financial Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. "We have no instrument to meet short-term balance-of-payments difficulties." A beefed-up BIS or an Asian-based version could fill that role.

COMMENT: HK Financial Secretary Tsang Yam-kuen's "We have no instrument to meet short-term balance-of-payments difficulties.", is a wonderfully constructed shot to the heart of the IMF. The remark is close to a verbatim description of the IMF's original-public--mandate! The first sentence "Asia must find a solution to the debt market.", is a good description of a debt market linked to the noble metal! {:- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:39 - ID#413195)
S&P options here: Don't know about XAU options. Dutchman . . . hmmmmm . . . say, you wouldn't speak German, would you ( see my 1400 ) ?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:42 - ID#317193)
Disney...would you re-up on your subscription to the Economist...
as much as you refer to it you ought to get a more recent issue: )


Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:42 - ID#377196)
golden cheeesehead
He who laughs last: Drooy only down 1/16 and Rangy only down 1/32.
Better days coming soon.

Got gold?

Thanks GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:44 - ID#253153)
Gold and XAU are holding nicely
Despite all the pessimism in the media, Europe, this forum, newpapers, etc, both gold and the XAU are holding . I believe the bottom in gold has been made and currently we are in a base building mode.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:48 - ID#310222) to prepare for depression
.......and how do you do prepare for one?........destruction of most of the debt world wide! Does that mean I don,t have to pay my mortgage?

......please, tell me, I HAVE to know



(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:49 - ID#350179)
World Bank to abandon Belarus, citing government's failure to fulfill promises

7/8/98 9163 +-5

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:49 - ID#252107)
Sounds to me you just hate Americans. I have my own small business and getting help right now is impossible. There really is full employment & that is no BS! You can say everything in America a lie, but I've seen Europe & its no utopia!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:51 - ID#373284)
Matt Drudge, look out

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:51 - ID#377196)
The Better Canadian Gold Stocks
are beginning to move to the upside: SJD.V, CMG.V, CTQ.TO, FAN.TO.

Gold looks better and better and so do the stocks.

Got Gold?

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:53 - ID#251166)
Gold took about as good a hit today as can be dished out -- EMU implies no limit to CB gold sales; JY weaker; London PM Fix just under its 30-day m.a.; assorted bad press, etc. But in the face of it all gold rose $2 from its early low; commercials remain long over short 3:2; XUA holding over 70. I'm not calling a bottom ( it's tough to buck an 18-year trend ) , but the current view looks a lot like it looked in late March '98, right before the puppy shot up to 310.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:55 - ID#317193)
JP...I'm with lady_bug...inquiring minds want to know!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 14:59 - ID#35571)
If it's anything like the last depression, it means more like you aren't able to pay your mortgage, they forclose, and you head for California or bust looking for work.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:01 - ID#212323)
SDRer 14:39
Your comments, or 'spin' if you will, following the text you posted was a remarkable example of brain power and seeing through the mist. Keep up the good work.
And Grizz...dammit--read my last post before you continue spouting your particular flavor of nonsense.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:02 - ID#35571)
Mum's the word.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:02 - ID#24135)
Achtung Achtung !!
For Golden Bucket Head
You've got it wrong about EVERYTHING.
you poor devil.
And you're even starting to sound like
sargeant Schultz.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:04 - ID#24135)
You're Right ..
T Young ..
But Old data gives me .. historical

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:05 - ID#215235)
Ron & Fox-Man
Thanks for the URL cite. I think the S&P will tank sometime in the near future. Good time to load up on S&P puts, June or December 1999. Sorry I don't speak or read German. Had to translate a page and a half of text for my doctoral degree, but that was 30 years ago. There must be a literate Kraut out there somewhere. Thanks again. And, oh yeah, GO GOLD!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:06 - ID#269207)
@all and to you
especially Jin...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:10 - ID#253153)
For inquiring minds
As I have posted before:
1. Try and pay off your debts.
2. Have enough cash on hand to meet emergencies needs should you lose your job or business.
3. For income, buy non callable long term US treasury bonds.
4. For safety and capital appreciation buy gold coins and gold stocks.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:10 - ID#224363)
The more I think about...
the EMU announcement this morning, the more I am convinced that it was a complete non-event. This doesn't mean that I think it was unimportant but quite frankly 15% in reserves is fine with me.

The CBs are not stupid. Gold is insurance. Insurance is one of those things that you dislike paying for, but do so anyway. Only a fool avoids insurance completely and determining the amount that you need is subjective.

A $2 drop after this 'so-called bearish EMU statement' is insignificant given that gold can move $2 with a jiggle in yen/dollar relationship.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:10 - ID#212323)
Grizz...specifically, I'm referring to my 13:04.
Give it a glance and give your keyboard a rest. Hang in there bud.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:12 - ID#25171)
Some of us , on this site , foresee a total collapse of the financial world as it is.

The global financial markets were born in the 70s with the explosion of debt and since then , new financial ,and always more exotic , products were invented and traded leading to a globalization of the local or regional financial markets inherited from the pre70s financial world order.

True , MR ROTSCHILD had observers warning him in advance of the outcome of WATERLOO to speculate on GILTS. And true as well , WWI and the 1929 crash had worldwide financial repercussions . However , never in history was the entire world leveraged to the hilt as it is now.The 1987 crash gave us a hint, but with hindsight it was a mere blip on the screen. With the fiat currency system and the interconnection of banks : a sure recipe for disaster is brewing.

Buying GOLD or farmland in proportion to one's wealth is not speculation.

It is a way of life/thinking and almost a contrarian philosophical statement.

Still , most of us don't have their wealth 100% in real assets. Who knows ? By some miracle , the powers that be might pull it off. So , a little bit of stocks or bonds and cash add up to expose most of us to a financial meltdown. That is often what keeps me from sleeping well.

However , even if stocks can go down 30 % in one day , total failure of the system won't happen overnight. Everything always takes more time than one might think.The CBs , governments ... will try to do whatever is necessary by first resorting to conventional crisis management techniques. This will give us ( the prepared minds as L. PASTEUR would put it ) sufficient time to bail out even at a loss. Even if GOLD is at 1000$ , we only will be averaging.Massive Bank failures will not occur before a few months. We will have to recognize the big one for what it is.No G7 or IMF trick will prevent the natural outcome. Then , only the ones with courage will cut their losses at market and switch 100% into the real thing.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:13 - ID#347267)
Bear up a tree
Boy!! You shoulda seen that bear come ascramblin off that limb and sliding down wiv bark and fur aflyin'!! I bet that's the last opinion he offers for a while!! 'Least GOLD is hangin tough.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:14 - ID#377196)
We all have some knowledge about the banking/fiat money system, right?
So isn't it interesting that we pay so much attention to them. We
still think that what they do or say is important. It's like we give
them the power over our lives. We know that if every currency is fiat
then those who print the stuff really don't have any power. How can
you have power if you don't produce anything of value?

The EURO is just another worthless currency-if it ever happens.
15% doesn't make it worth any more than any of the other curriencies.
But look what they have accomplished: they get every one paying
atttention to what they are doing. They maintain their illusion of
power over the economy. Since the average person does not have any
or enough gold what is he to do but believe in magic.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:17 - ID#368244)
@ StudioR

Been walkin around all day humming Roger Miller's, " King of the Road", don, t know whats gotten into me of late.

P.S.--- eatin all this nutria, is making me feel like a rat. What do Okies eat when times are this bad?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:20 - ID#210235)
@Let's see what's been going on here

Congress demands that the IMF opens up its books.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:29 - ID#252150)
Gold Dancer@The better Cdn AU stocks--SJD&CTQ???You've got to be
kidding or you're a promoter. Those 2 have a strong possibility of going to 0. Especially CTQ which was hyped to 19 by Bob Bishop & now sits around 1.30, never yet having found an economic deposit.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:30 - ID#258427)
Here's a date to watch
The "US banking system will test" it's y2k compliance on Sept 26,1998

In May 1997, The Clearing House announced that it would conduct its first
mandatory year 2000 test for CHIPS participants on September 26, 1998. This
test is designed to assess the ability of the CHIPS participants to
successfully interoperate with CHIPS and other CHIPS participants. The test
is an important step in year 2000 compliance for the banks and in the
testing schedule prescribed by the FFIEC. Funds-transfer systems are
extremely sophisticated operations that are dependent upon the integrated
operation of CHIPS, Fedwire, and S.W.I.F.T. for the movement of domestic
and international large-dollar payments. To create a suitable test
environment for the banks, the Clearing House requested Fedwire and
S.W.I.F.T. to make their test systems available for the CHIPS participant
community on September 26, 1998. Both Fedwire and S.W.I.F.T. have agreed to
work with the Clearing House to coordinate their respective year 2000 test
systems on this date.
Note also:

The Importance of Telecommunications to the Payments System

All payment systems operate on public telecommunications networks operated
by domestic and international carriers. Unimpaired operation of these
networks is one of the most critical factors to the ability of banks to
process payments in the new millennium. It is also a factor that is largely
beyond the direct control of the banks. In January 1997, the Clearing House
embarked on a project to assess the readiness of all domestic local and
inter-exchange carriers. The Clearing House also met with the Federal
Communications Commission on several occasions to ask for help in obtaining
the carriers plans. In early 1998, the Clearing House and the Securities
Industry Association ( SIA ) joined together to identify and evaluate
telecommunication carriers world-wide.



(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:31 - ID#269207)
@ Insure
citie slickers : )

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:34 - ID#212323)
Gold Dancer
You are absolutely right about fiat currencies, and the Euro is also one, BUT with one important distinction. It alone has the ability and certain potential to unseat the USDollar as the world's favorite magic show.

The upside for a goldbug is that the U.S. won't be content pulling rabbits out of hats in front of an empty theatre...they will up the ante. As the competition to be the preeminent world currency plays out, those who have been burned by their own national currency going up in smoke will not fall for the same old tricks. Gold will become a more and more significant part of the act. Holding gold today guarantees you a better exchange rate than in the future. No doubt about it. Only the timing is left up for speculation.

Nothin' up my sleeve...PRESTO
got gold.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:37 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John, your 10:55 is just brilliant.
That is very probably the real life situation...

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:40 - ID#377196)
Agreed. Gold will come back slowly as debts are wiped out one way
or another. Gold guarantees one a better exchange rate in the future.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:44 - ID#286250)
Aragorn III--re: As the competition to be the preeminent world currency plays out

Does the following suggest that Europe believes the Euro the penultimate
whilst good ole non-interest bearing _ _ _ _ is the ultimate? {:- ) )

"The Council

4. is urged always to require a non-interest bearing deposit, whenever the Council decides to impose sanctions on a participating Member State;


(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:44 - ID#373284)
jefsilver7_A, Namaste' a giant Island that is Long gulp of tequilato ya.
No, NO, NO, I DO NOT HATE Americans. In fact, if you read my posts it is the diametrically opposed opposite, that which are MY FEELINGS towards Americans. But toooooo meeeeAmericans are not the sniveling I NEED THIS and I NEED that twits that voted for the Coward Erectand his LIFE is a village full of c_ap wife

Now on the other hand, I refuse to own a business and I WILL NEVER work for anyone again in this lifetime...unless a very few specific individuals that I respect deeply ask me to. Why, because as an AMERICAN I refuse to submit to the UN-mitigated garbage the fraud government wants to subject me to. Why should I work and or employ in the manner in which THEY decide so that the hogs from Arkansas can eat, drink and get MERRY off the toils of my/our labor and with ( JUST ONE EXAMPLE ) the BUTCHERS of Tienanamen. They can KISS my AMERICAN A_S

And JUST FOR THE RECORDat times in my life I have told people that I want less than they were willing to give or pay meWHY you askbecause I do what I do for what I think it is worth, no more, no lessperiod! I was raised that way and I simply, in good conscience, could not accept itmy Father taught me to be good to America and she will be good to you

Watch the UN-employment numbers though in the coming weeks and months and do not believe the media and the Coward Erect that it is ALL due to the GM strike either. Do not fall prey to those malignant thoughts of the dirtbags in the media and the District of Columbia.

I leave you with the follow link...are Americans spoiled?...heh...heh...heh...

And another gulp of tequila to yaNamaste

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:47 - ID#258427)
Optimistic Bank y2k compliance..??optimistic??
The url that I posted is the most **optimistic** y2k document that I have seen ( after much searching btw ) . This url indicates that the banks not only will be ready...but are ready now ... to function in the y2k environment ... well...maybe ... important url...


(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:47 - ID#365216)
Martial Law (Y2K)
1998-06-26 08:07:08
Suspending the Constitution by Emergency Order
WORLD NET DAILY has been doing good work in running stories on
emergency orders. This article continues the topic.

In my view, this is where we are headed. In 1966, I got a copy of
EMERGENCY BANKING REGULATION #1, signed by Secretary of
the Treasury Robert Anderson in early 1961, just before Eisenhower's
presidency ended. I began studying the whole subject of Emergency
Orders. In 1973, the Church committee issued a long report on them. They
are serious, as we will find out over the next two years.

* * * * * * *

Presidential Decision Directive #63 on "critical infrastructure protection"
specifically assigns FEMA the task of "continuity of government" services,
the precise term used in previous plans for a anti-constitutional takeover in
a time of crisis. Further, as with previous plans, the Clinton order is
stunningly silent on any role in such an emergency for the legislative and
judicial branches or for state and local government.

A recent article in the Army War College's journal Parameters, expresses
what appears to be the dominant administration attitude on the matter:

"Strategic leaders can take solace in the lessons learned from military
participation in domestic disaster relief, for the record indicates that legal
niceties or strict construction of prohibited conduct will be a minor concern.
The exigencies of the situation seem to overcome legal proscriptions
arguably applicable to our soldiers' conduct. Pragmatism appears to prevail
when American soldiers help their fellow citizens."

SOME HISTORY: In a July 1983 series in the San Francisco Examiner,
two-time Pulitzer Prize-winner Knute Royce reported that a presidential
directive had been drafted by a few Carter administration personnel in
1979 to allow the military to take control of the government for 90 days in
the event of an emergency. A caveat on page one of the directive said,
"Keeping the government functioning after a nuclear war is a secret, costly
project that detractors claim jeopardizes U.S. traditions and saves a
privileged few." According to Royce there was a heated debate within the
Carter administration as to just what constituted an "emergency." . . .

The Constitution does not directly address the question of what should
happen in the midst of a major national catastrophe. But neither does it give
the slightest support to notions of turning matters over to non-elected
civilian or military officials with plenary powers. The best guide is to be
found in Amendment Ten which states that the powers of the federal
government are those delegated to it by the states and the people. The
states and the people have not delegated the power of martial law. Thus in
a true crisis ( such as a nuclear attack ) the answer seems quite plain: the
country would be run as a loose confederation of fifty states until a
legitimate federal government could be re-established. In the interim, the
highest constitutional officials in the land would be the governors.

According to Chardy, the plan called for 'suspension of the Constitution,
turning control of the government over to the Federal Emergency
Management Agency, emergency appointment of military commanders to
run state and local governments and declaration of martial law.' The
proposal appears to have forgotten that Congress, legislatures and the
judiciary even existed. . . .

In an August 1984 letter to NSC chair Robert McFarlane, Attorney
General William French Smith wrote:

"I believe that the role assigned to the Federal Emergency Management
Agency in the revised Executive Order exceeds its proper function as a
coordinating agency for emergency preparedness . . . This department and
others have repeatedly raised serious policy and legal objections to the
creation of an 'emergency czar' role for FEMA." . . .

Another memo, written in 1982 to then FEMA director Louis Giuffrida and
given only tightly restricted circulation even within the agency, made this
astonishing assertion:

"Over the long term, the peacetime action programs of FEMA and other
departments and agencies have the effect of making the conceivable need
for military takeover less and less as time goes by. A fully implemented civil
defense program may not now be regarded as a substitute for martial law,
nor could it be so marketed, but if successful in its execution it could have
that effect."

The memo essentially proposed that the American people would rather be
taken over by FEMA than by the military. When those are the options on
the table, you know you're in trouble.

The head of FEMA until 1985, Giuffrida also once wrote a paper on the
Legal Aspects of Managing Disorders. Here is some of what he said:

"No constitution, no statute or ordinance can authorize Martial Rule. [It
commences] upon a determination ( not a declaration ) by the senior military
commander that the civil government must be replaced because it is no
longer functioning anyway . . . The significance of Martial Rule in civil
disorders is that it shifts control from civilians and to the military completely
and without the necessity of a declaration, proclamation or other form of
public manifestation . . . As stated above, Martial Rule is limited only by the
principle of necessary force."

Those words come from a time when Giuffrida was the head of
then-Governor Reagan's California Specialized Training Institute, a National
Guard school. It was not, for Giuffrida, a new thought. In 1970 he had
written a paper for the Army War College in which he called for martial law
in case of a national uprising by black militants. Among his ideas were
"assembly centers or relocation camps" for at least 21 million "American

During 1968 and 1972, Reagan ran a series of war games in California
called Cable Splicer, which involved the Guard, state and local police, and
the US Sixth Army. Details of this operation were reported in 1975 in a
story by Ron Ridenour of New Times, an Arizona alternative paper, and
later exhumed by Dave Lindorff in the Village Voice.

Cable Splicer, it turned out, was a training exercise for martial law. The
man in charge was none other than Edwin Meese, then Reagan's executive
secretary. At one point, Meese told the Cable Splicer combatants:

"This is an operation, this is an exercise, this is an objective which is going
forward because in the long run . . . it is the only way that will be able to
prevail [against anti-war protests.]"

Addressing the kickoff of Cable Splicer, Governor Reagan told some 500
military and police officers:

"You know, there are people in the state who, if they could see this
gathering right now and my presence here, would decide their worst fears
and convictions had been realized -- I was planning a military takeover."

The Reaganites were not, however, the only ones with such thoughts.
Consider this from a NSC directive written by Frank Carlucci in 1981:

"Normally a state of martial law will be proclaimed by the President.
However, in the absence of such action by the President, a senior military
commander may impose martial law in an area of his command where there
had been a complete breakdown in the exercise of government functions by
local civilian authorities."


(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:49 - ID#410198)
Can the news out of Japan get worse......YES IT CAN

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:50 - ID#411259)
..... JD .....

I have a crient who will be spending 4 months in SA in the not too distant future. Could you e-mail me so we could discuss this off-line? I told him you da man down there..



(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:52 - ID#252197)
feasibility study
If 30% of the doomsday scenarios espoused at this

site ever come to fruition, then, there need to be

some sort of universal survival strategy developed

and put in place now. One idea might be as follows:

A gold/silver bullion trade or barter exchange in

every state, with, the eventual goal of

regionalized trade centers in each state.

These trade centers could begin as web pages on

the net. The web page could consist of a listing

of items up for barter or trade. Listed categories

could include food, other grocery items, clothing,

hardware, tools, machinery, equipment, housing,

transportation, realty, etc., etc., etc.

All items listed could be traded or bartered for

an equal value of gold or silver bullion at

prevailing spot prices. Essentially, a commodity

of one value being exchanged or traded for

another commodity of equal value.

This post is a simplistic overview to say the

least. Is a system of this type even feasible?

Workable? Are there legal entanglements? Is this

one of those "been there", "done that", "doesn't

work" ideas. Or, is there potential for a system

such as this one?

This post is not meant to be revolutionary in

anyway. It is simply a proposed means for us

goldbugs to have a network in place should a

severe financial debacle occur. Contingency

planning for the worst case scenario you might

say. A means of mutual survival not profit

making. Thank you for your time and feedback.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:52 - ID#377196)
NO, I AM NOT A PROMOTER. CTQ and SJD have lots of cash ( over 15 million ) each, no debt and excellent projects. Read CTQ.TO's latest
drill results and news release and make up your own mind. I say
their potential is very big from these prices. Yes, I own some of both.
I also own Drooy and Rangy and others. They all look excellent on the
charts as do most PM's. I don't care whether anyone on this site buys
or sells anything I own. The market is too big to be much affected.
Why don't you short them if you think they are going to go to 0?

Have at it, Go, James, Go. Put your money where your mouth is, I do.

And I dont lie about it.

I'm transparent.

No harm meant. Just a difference of opinion.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:53 - ID#317193)
JP...thanks for your thoughts

(Wed Jul 08 1998 15:53 - ID#210235)
@Brother Oris
Thanks for pointing out that post!

Yes. JD's got a way of seeing through the fog.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:02 - ID#288369)
@Isure...of what?.....Trailers for sale or rent.............
Rooms to let....fifty cents. I hope I haven't already told you this story. Roger's son had been in Nashville for several years attempting to make it in the music biz. He had several record venture deals, but the magic wasn't there, nor were the songs.

The last thing he wanted to do was to call his dad for help, but in desperation, he finally did. He told his father of his hopeless situation, and asked him if he would help him write a hit. Roger pondered his son's request for a short while, and then responded "No."

The son, dazed by his father's emphatic response, asked Roger, "Why?"
And then this beloved Okie asked his son, simply....."Did Picasso co-paint?" huh.

In response to your question, "What do Okies eat during bad times?" I must tell you....thickly-cut porterhouse steaks.....'cause we know good times are just around the corner! GO GOLDBUGS!!!! And G'Day Isure!

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:04 - ID#212323)
SDRer... So it would seem, my good man,
so it would seem. They obviously view gold as the ultimate, and the Euro is created because they are prone to suffer for as long as the USDollar holds the penultimate position. I'm have no delusions that their intent is NOT to move with haste toward the ultimate, or to usher it in at all. But eventually, ( it can't be avoided ) , the ultimate will have its day in the sun. Until then, the parties to the EMU will certainly want to take advantage of all the same privileges currently known only to the makers of the USDollar. How long they can make it last I do not know. But it is clear that this 25-year old experiment with worldwide fiat currencies is now burning up the laboratory. There is time left for only a few titrations and hurried precipitations. Foooom!

got an exit plan?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:09 - ID#431366)
Aragorn III - I HAD read your 13:04
I still stand by my argument.
Who needs this stuff?
So the Euro replaces the US dollar as the reserve currency.
As we go more digital - physical GOLD will not be needed.
Indeed - it will be a non-earning asset
that decreases in value.

Grizz's don't climb trees.
They knock 'em down.
and munch on the wildlife found therein.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:11 - ID#252150)
Gold Dancer@Big deal--CTQ has 15 mil cash. A year ago they had 30 mil.
How much will they have a year from now? Do you have any idea of how many of these properties ever becomes a mine? I do'nt want to belabor this subject, but spoke up in case a neophyte took your hyperbole at face value.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:13 - ID#377196)
Your excellent post should remind all of us just how difficult it
will be for the Federal Reserve in this country to stop a deflation.

That is the one thing they cannot do. Not in a debt money system.
The debt money system just goes Poof....Just like Japan.

Thanks, GD

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:13 - ID#347267)
Sam@14:22re Burning Flag
Trying to get a RISE? Our troop was never told to BURN OUR FLAG. If the US Flag touches the ground pick it up! Do your best never to let it touch the ground. Burn OUR flag??? NEVER!!!! That Something Klinton may have done!! Mtn Bear ( An old Scout )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:16 - ID#433172)
In reply to your 10:02 post it seems to me America ( ens ) are no more guilty than nationals of any country for pumping up the bubble. that capital going into the stocks and bonds is doing so at the free will of people from various countries. People are just doing what they want to do. the US is no "great satan".

he bond indexed to inflation makes it more attractive to investors, something wrong with that? Immoral?

Maybe there are villians involved, if so they certainly aren"t all American.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:19 - ID#373284)
grizz, Namaste' wake up to the pounding at the mint, digital gold exists, yes it does and I can assure you that the world over it will be accepted before digi-cash/air uh huh...

got gold, silver, platinum, palladium...huh...

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:24 - ID#212323)
OK, Grizz, let's look at this carefully and slowly together...
I don't necessarily agree with the present worldwide perception of the value of gold in Dollar terms, but let's put that aside and accept it at face value. 1oz Gold = $295.

Take two stainless steel boxes, and seal the Gold in one, the cash in the other, then bury them in the woods where they won't be disturbed by other grizzlies.

After 40 or 50 years let's dig 'em up. One box contains and ounce of gold. The other box contains....Hmmmmmmmm, that's interesting...only $295! Where's the interest? Surely that box should be stuffed with cash by now! Well, all this work has made me hungry and tired. Let's walk into town and buy dinner and get a couple rooms for the night. Frankly, I have no idea what things cost now that we are fifty years into the future. Those greenbacks you're holding sure look promising though. With a little Ranch Dressing we might be able to eat them like salad if we had to. Oh, did I mention that this woods we're walking through might happen to be anywhere in the world, even somewhere called the Collective States of Amerika. Beleive it or not, I have made my point, even before I intended to. Hmmmmm, sometimes you luck-out when you ramble on.

Now it is your turn to continue the discussion.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:25 - ID#288186)
Comex Warehouse Totals...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 8

Gold 1,059,912 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 86,247,303 - 253,032 troy ounces
Copper 58,744 - 767 short tons

N/A= Not available.
Still hovering around the lows in Silver! Fox-Man

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:40 - ID#43460)
tolerant1, why e-gold instead of a more traditional depository?
Isn't this just a point of preference like whether a person prefers to drive a Ford or a Chevrolet? Jes' wondering as I looked into e-gold a few months ago and decided that for my own account buying shares of CEF sufficed. I figure that for anything except a total US/Canadian meltdown, having a gold depository fund was best done for me if it were on the open stock exchange. IMHO

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:47 - ID#212323)
Speaking of e-gold, I sent you some E-mail warning you to be on the lookout for REAL mail. Contained therein you won't find E-anything. You will have something REAL.
E-gold, by the way, is better than what we call money these days by a long shot. It is with the arrival of this modern technology that will allow gold to easily be used as money again for everyday transactions by the people of the world. Choose your own money...choose gold.
And to the uninitiated out there, gold is gold, period. E-gold is simply an excellent accounting tool to track and transfer ownership as you require it to be done. No government is needed.
And so that you're not confused by legal tender laws let me say this. They do not mean that payment HAS to be MADE with Federal Reserve Notes, they simply mean that if the debtor offers them as payment, you HAVE to accept them. What to do if you do not want them? Simple. Raise your price so high that they would rather pay with gold. The value of gold INSTANTLY becomes apparent to all.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 16:53 - ID#7568)

I tried to post this, this morning but could not get Kitco to accept. Hope this is not old news by now.

The decline of gold this A.M. is not really related to the ECB announcement but is rather producer selling, most likely coming out of South Africa. The producers there, no doubt have been watching the collapse of the Rand, and at the first sign of a short term bottom have hit the sell button.

Silver is more confusing that ever. J. Aron controls something on the order of 30 million ounces of Comex warrants. They are also big call option sellers. The owning of the silver is most likely not their business but client business. The option writing is unknown. They play a very deep game over there. If the silver market ever does run and take out the technical shorts, I imagine it will come out of nowhere with everyone just looking on in disbelief.

It will be interesting to watch the XAU today. If the damage is contained, some good things may happen to the PM markets short term. If not its back to watching and waiting.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:00 - ID#43460)
Barter, IMHO a rip off at this stage of the market
James, sorry to disappoint you but there are lots of enterprising souls trying to get a start in this, and have been since back before The Mother Earth News and The Whole Earth Catalog got commercialized ( probably from before Hamurabi codified the law in fact ) . But IMHO they so little known so primitively networked and have such high spreads that they'll never any more than a little business. 'Sides, that's why we have gold, so we can have a medium of exchange. With barter you have to spend a lot more time deciding what everything is worth ( unless you espouse the old communist utilitarian principle that an hour is worth the same whether its an hour leaning on a shovel watching somebody else dig or an hour feeding machine gun belts shooting Republicans ) . IMHO

Here are some links I pulled up. But I think there would be more benefit to just go to the ole' flea market and set up a booth, exchanging turnips or shrunken goldbug's heads or whatever for Dinaro. IMHO

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:01 - ID#252391)
DoW 10,000 before gold 315
To the detractors from this forecast, please note that the NASDAQ hit new highs today, the sotck market rallied even though the Internet stocks were down. After hours trading finds has them up sharply in after hours trading. Brokerage companies and banks the leaders this day.

The yen rallies, gold falls, the ECU announces 15% reserves, gold falls.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:03 - ID#212323)
Holy takeover candidate, Batman!
Holy CAU! Canyon Resources ended the day with an apparent market capitalization value of $20 Million. They have $7 Million in gold just sitting there on the leach pad doin' its thing--leachin' toward the ol' money bucket at the bottom.

Hey Warren Buffet ( my neighbor ) , whaddaya say we buy us a pretty little operation for a song.

The share price is being punished because the company was aggressively moving to expand its operation and realized it had to back off a bit to a more sustainable approach given the current gold market. They can easily turn a profit on their existing operations when not throwing gobs of money into the McDonald mine EIS process. All in good time, lads, all in good time.

Hey Warren, yer phone's's me.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:04 - ID#269207)
@send me some of that
e-gold Tolerant1, and we'll see what happens when I present that lil' e-mail in exchange for some of the real stuff!!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:10 - ID#286234)
Mtn Bear (SE)
Nope, not a rise, not even an answer really. It is an issue, however, that has been puzzling me for a long time. I read an newspaper article a few years ago about a goverment employee that had the job of retiring worn out, dirty, damaged US flags. Apparently US government constantly generates tons of them. He burned them in an incinerator. Under Lasorda's Law is he supposed to toss them in a dumpster?

Whenever someone raises or lowers Old Glory I always at least stop and watch, while everyone else scurries by, not paying any attention at all.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:12 - ID#288295)
BillD @ CHIPS test
Hmmmmmm....your article on the CHIPS test in September didn't say whether they were going to turn the electric power and telephones off to do the test. Wonder why not? Got Gold?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:12 - ID#410198)
Associated Press.....Elite Russian troops training in the American leaders...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:12 - ID#20748)
D.A. Finally some good news
Bloomberg report says any sale of remaining gold holdings by member CBs can only be with the prior approval by ECB.

I hope the url below holds, otherwise please go to the Bloomberg site, click on world equities, then on EMU Update.>

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:18 - ID#212323)
Bartering with gold
Anyone who mentions gold bartering using the spot price is deeply, deeply affected and out of touch. Don't these people know the maxim that given a two-currency system, the strong money will be closely held while the weak currency will be driven down in value as it becomes the sole circulating money that noone wants? Sheeesh. If someone wants $100 worth of gold ( based on spot value ) for a quantity of food, just give them $100 cash. Keep the gold until cash has no meaning or at least no value. Duh. Otherwise, you look like you are trying to unload a weak currency. I could retch at the thought. Pu-lease!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:21 - ID#39828)
Someone ask Gold to pick something up
John lets let the punters decide.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:21 - ID#212323)
That was the best post of the day! ...wiping away the tears...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:22 - ID#253246)
Aragorn III **************************CAU

Canyon could use a little PR , they havn't released any news on their
possible joint venture since early May. I had a double on this stock
and rode it all the way back down and cannot believe that the company
can not issue one positive statement about any of their projects.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:25 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.28. This is a new all time high. The 50 day moving average is 30.31

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:28 - ID#14431)
Another S&P/Gold ratio high...
S&P/Gold ratio hit another all-time high today: 3.979. This is 42% over 1968's peak day ( 2.802 ) and 157% above 1929's peak day ( 1.547 ) . The ratio is up 17% in 1998 ( so far ) , from 3.402. From the last cyclical low in 1980 ( 0.130 ) we are up 2,961%. Wow. This bubble is amazing.

I remember watching John Templeton on Wall Street Week in the Summer of 1982, as he avowed that most of his Templeton Growth Fund assets were in USA stocks, because: "I believe that we will never see these ( low ) valuations in the USA again."

I don't even have to guess what he thinks about the U.S. stock market valuation today; probably the same things he thought about the Tokyo stock market in 1989.

Wonder if anyone's asked for his thoughts on gold lately. Anyone know?

Thanks, Fergie

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:32 - ID#252127)
Simplistic thoughts

Since the 1980's and with the use of modern computational power, the financial elite have been trying to mimic mother nature. You know like crop failures in the northern hemisphere being balanced by high yields in the southern hemisphere, so currency problems in one location are made up by currency prosperity elsewhere.

Thus using the globalist doctrine of -feast here and famine there- the elitists have by using their computers manipulated currencies to suit their aims and in effect have assumed control over entire national economies without the slightest regard to the to the effects created.

As for the Euro, why would countries with large unemployment problems elect to create a strong currency, that is/if they can solve their own problems.

In the meantime the US will experience job loses that cannot be hidden and when the balance of payments deficits hit home, not they haven't done so already, only one currency ( gold ) will seem safe, but don't be sure as the dirty bummers probably have a computer model -on the ready- to attack that problem also, but like mother nature the the humans at the controls are unpredictable as are the humans being controlled.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:33 - ID#373284)
gagnrad, III of the house of ARAGORN, Namaste' gagnrad I think ARAGORN
answered your question in his earlier post? yes? ARAGORN the Gnomes of the Cuervo mailroom have been alerted and await such a special package.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:34 - ID#238422)
Brother Prometheus,

Good to hear from you.

Brother John, besides all, has a very solid engineering
and financial background, and most posters over here
are not aware of it.

I do believe that what he mentioned is what really
happening in these circles at this time...Then you
ask yourself - what about the future gold sales from
Europe? 12,000 for sale or 900 for sale? Guess, not

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .240. The 50 day moving average is .257. My database contains 30 occasions where the XAU closed in the 70.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #27. The #1 ranking was on August 15, 1986, with a gold price of $383.50, an XAU reading of 70.21, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .183

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:37 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.93. The 50 day moving average is 54.36

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:37 - ID#290232)
Flag Burning
The flag stands for the the government of that nation it represents. When you wave a flag you are in effect saying you agree with the
government it represents to the extent you are proud of it.

I am no longer proud of our government or what it currently represents.

One defintion of a slave is someone who is forced to labor for someone
elses benefit. In this sense, someone who was 100% slave would be
forced to labor and get nothing in return, not even food. This slave would soon die and cease to produce for his master. The fact that this was not good for the master was for this reason that slaves in the 1800's were allowed to keep some of the food they grew in return for their labor. In otherwords, they were not 100% slaves.

Today I am forced to give 40+% of my income to the government. Like the slaves of old I labor for someone else benefit. Sure I could just refuse to work and become a vagrant. For this I would be arrested for vagrancy and put into jail where I would be beaten, raped, etc. Just like the slaves in the 1800's.

Basically, the only difference between my slavery and slavery in the old south is that I get to keep 60% of the results of my labor where the slaves
in the old south only got to keep a few percent.

The fact remains however that slavery is slavery be it 40% or 98%.

This is not Country created by the founding fathers. Then only some of use were slaves. Now, all of us are.

The only thing I have for the current government and the flag that represents it is contempt. I'm sure I get flamed by those of you who fought in WWII, Korea, etc. But the fact is, the country you fought for then no longer exists and the flag you fought under then now flies over
a whitehouse occupied by a traitor who has a 78% approval rating.

If the founding fathers could see our government now, they would
not blame the government. They would blame us. They would cry
out to "How could our children have become such cowards that they would tolerate being enslaved by their own government". Then they would spit on our flag and vanish back into the past from which they came.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:40 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages.
Spot gold $296.32; spot silver $5.45; XAU 76.43

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:43 - ID#174239)
Aragorn III & Grizz: Gold after 50 years.
I did the math for this fascinating comparison:

If one person buried an ounce of gold and another the cash needed to buy that gold, where would they be if they dug it up after 50 years?

I used a handy inflation calculator at : and a data base of gold prices I downloaded from this site a year ago.

Since my data base of gold prices only goes up to 1996, I'll use that. In 1946 an ounce of gold cost $34.71. Back then that amount of cash could by what $293.64 will buy today. Waiting 50 years, then digging this up and selling it would get you $387.77. In comparison the $34.71 burried in 1946 would now buy you what $4.10 would have bought in 1946.

Of course if you had bought $34.71 worth of IBM stock in 1946 you would now be doing very nicely. I wish I could look this up but the IBM price data I can find only goes back to the early 60s. But then who could have anticipated that in over 20 years IBM would do much more than make cash registers...

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:45 - ID#270253)
New Anglogold symbol on Nasdaq
I Found it!!

Anglogold ( post merger ) is now ANGDY and represents 1/2 of the South African listed share. The old AGOLY ( and prior to that VAALY ) represented 1/10 of a South African share. They closed today at $22.50.

Gold Field Limited is available here as GDFDY. The quotes seem to be end of day and delayed.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:45 - ID#238422)
On the subject of elite Russian troops training in the U.S.

Just to help you, my friend: I know of at least one
Russian military in the rank of Major. He is Mr.V.Fetisov,
playing for the Red Wings in Detroit, MI. He is training
also in the Detroit, which is in the U.S. He does have
a suitcase...but what's inside is a top Russian secret.

Colonel Lunev and Another guy have one thing in common,
both are in need to sell books...You can not blame them
for this...

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:47 - ID#212323)
BUFFORD *************PR***************No Kidding!
What Company would choose a headline for a press release like this:

Canyon Resources halts work at McDonald mine

when the rest of the story is relatively tame like this:

GOLDEN, Colo., July 8 ( Reuters ) - Canyon Resources Corp. temporarily
suspended the work of its Environmental Impact Statement contractor at
the McDonald Gold Project near Lincoln, Montana, said the mining company
on Wednesday.
"In this difficult economic climate for gold, Canyon Resources finds it
necessary to ... focus on the most crucial aspects of the various
permits at this time," said Richard De Voto, president of Canyon
Resources, in a statement.

The company will concentrate its EIS work at other sites while it seeks
a joint venture partner for the development of the McDonald Gold

The McDonald Gold Project contains 7.2 million ounces of mineable gold
reserves, at a gold price of $350/ounce and 4.9 million ounces at a gold
price of $300/ounce.

Gold for August delivery is trading at $293.70/ounce, down $2.30 on the
DeVoto is a damn-good man. I know him personally. This is a good company that I am proud to own a part of ( as a minority shareholder ) . I don't view it as an investment to be lightly flipped. This is a fine company to wallow around in, read the numbers, kick the dirt, tires, etc. I am anxious to watch it grow. I think Dick is content to grow the company without any unnecessary hype such as *bogus* Juniors are wont to do.

Personally, I'd like to take time with McDonald, and keep it 100% Canyon's operation. But marginal cash flow with low POG dictates that a JV is needed if this operation is to commence post-haste.

While I agree with Dick's anti-cheerleading stand, I sure think the press releases could avoid to decidedly negative overtone that simply does not exist. Maybe Dick and Co. simply want time to increase their own stake in the Corporation. Insiders held about 9% the last I knew. I'd be curious to see SEC reports to know if they are buying more these days.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:48 - ID#270253)
Make that

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:49 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' you miss the point completely, you do not present an email to
anyone. You enter their account number and yours, then depending on which currency or currencies you digitally transfer your gold/currency amount, which is agreed, into their account. Done...also I believe the word is completely cut out the middleman/men that is why the bankers and the politicians hate goldwhat the hay do you need them for, all they do is suck your bloodthey are parasites

My response to you is take your bank statement to any and present your bank statement as payment...get much...all revolutions take time eh...

Oh yeah, when I want physical I enter the amounthit enter and voila, it is in my hands in hours.

Your digi-cash aint nothin but trashSteve Miller steps into the new agehehhehheh

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:50 - ID#270253)
Something funny is happening
Change the "x" in quotex to "s" as in quotes to get the url. I typed it in correctly, but gremlins got it.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:54 - ID#246224)
Always coming through with a good, kick ass comment in short order. Your wit as sharp as a blade. Keep it up. And NO THEY WON'T turn off the power or the telies; so just GET off your high horse, man! EVERYTHING will be just dandy 'cause all the new equipment is run with Energizer Bunny batteries. They will run forever ... ;- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 17:58 - ID#350179)
Well, well
U.S. consumers curbed credit-card use in May

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:00 - ID#253246)
Aragorn III ********maybe you can answer these? CAU

Is there any word on Briggs Q2 OZ production.

What kind of cash do they have in the bank?

R. Devoto probably has taken a ear beating form the two holders of
the $2.5 million private placements purchased in January 98.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:01 - ID#212323)
A certain pledge will remind you that the flag does NOT stand for the Government of a nation....but instead " the Republic, for which it stands, One Nation under God, indivisible, with Liberty and Justice for All."

I might say "get bent", but that would be rude and I never am. Instead, vote those bums out of office because the Govt no longer represents our flag.

got tolerance?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:04 - ID#411259)
..... CB Sales .....

NJ wrote: "Bloomberg report says any sale of remaining gold holdings by member CBs can only be with the prior approval by ECB."

This is true, beginning Jan 1, 1999.

This would seem to put the pressure on to sell by year end

If sales there are to be, yes?


(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:09 - ID#30116)
Silverbear@flag burning
The term, "Fat, dumb, and happy", comes to mind. It's sort of like the commercial for the Raid Roach Hotel, "They check in but they don't check out...."

As for the reason for the high approval ratings, see above. When this economy turns, and it will, ( And NO, I do NOT wish for a downturn. ) Watch how quickly those approval ratings will fall when the beer and lottery tickets don't come so easy...

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:10 - ID#212323)
No doubt about the ear beating. Or even worse, from the $10 Million raised only a year ago when the share price was ballpark $2 each. Ouch. No-one saw the depth of this bear's maw.

I don't have the numbers you seek, but they should be surprises over business as usually. Brigg's is tooling along with its crusher retro-fit, and sales of Saf-sil should come on line from the pumice plant to help the bottom line this quarter. But you probably already knew that.

Wish I had bot all the Canyon I have at today's price. I'd sure have a bit more than I currently do. Oh well, what can you do but dance with the girls...

they like gold, you know.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:17 - ID#212323)
BUFFORD...sorry, I just re-read your post "What kind of cash do they have in the bank? "
Unfortunately, the kind of cash they have is of the fiat variety. We can change THAT.

After gold! ( you see, we MINE the stuff...every day! )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:27 - ID#252150)
Gagnrad@Your 17:00 was meant for the

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:30 - ID#43460)
Some links and news of interest
Japanese cutting taxes ( Mr. Clinton are you reading this? ) ; From the Australian Financial Review:

Economic slowdown leveling off; from the Jerusalem Post:

Former Asian tigers have turned turtle; From The Globe and Mail:

Tony Brown's home page; yes, I'm a fan but I have no fiduciary interest, et cetera:

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:31 - ID#410198) question when books need to be sold you have to have hook.......then again can we just
discount this.....he is in the witness protection program just heard him on the Ollie North show.......

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:34 - ID#43460)
James, er sorry
I can't tell yous guy's numbers from here. Are you the one with red hair or the baldy?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:35 - ID#350179)
Moody's: Widespread bank closings likely in China

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:37 - ID#394218)
BUFFORD - Canyon and McDonald Medows Permit
Read the old Phelps Dodge annual reports to get a background on this project. They were the joint venture partner that developed it. It is big alright and will be as hard to permit as the New World project. Industry rumor has Phelps Dodge was 4 years behind on their permitting schedule when they bailed out!

My question is is why Canyon does't go after the Seven Up Pete deposit, 10 million tons at 0.06 opt.. The grade is better, its not next to a river, could be permitted far more easily and the construction and development costs should be an order of magnitude less. Once in production in the area it would be eaiser to permit the larger lower grade McDonald deposit.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:39 - ID#43460)
For those who've digested the last batch of URLs
I'll repeat the aphorism. 'You never hear the one which gets you', which was meant originally to comfort troops under artillery barrage, but has application here. IMHO if the possibility of deflation/recession/depression is so obvious that newspapers around the world comment on it then the next shell coming down on us is IN-flation and nobody hears it coming. IMHO, IMHO, IMHO

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:45 - ID#269207)
@seein is belivin'
oh Tolerant1, this kids sold enough Au of the natural and other kind to know that that's 10% below spot if it is 999 and somewhat below that if it is not. An buyin it, it was 10% above spot if it was 999, and if it was of the other kind, well that always ran into all kinds of different kinds of deals.. but if there isn't a fee somewhere involved, I still don' wanna play ball with this guy, till I see jus what is a gonnin on. shezzzzzzzzzzzz no fee? jus spot, right!! uh, I'll see ya tomorrow, K.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:50 - ID#432148)
Silverbear - Your 17:37 - Flag burning
Well said, and I was on active duty in WWII and Korea. I have a sweatshirt with the flag on it, and at the top is "I Love My Country" and at the bottom is "But I Fear My Government". I am a Libertarian today. As were the founding fathers.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:50 - ID#253153)
MM reported at 17:45 that US consumers curbed credit card use in May
We have the first solid official confirmation that debt IMPLOSION is beginning. US consumers are slowing their spending .Private debt is beginning to contract. Since private debt is 3 times larger than US government debt, economic activity decline will accelerate and unemployment will increase.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:51 - ID#288295)
Allen (USA)
I'm very busy at my ( real ) job just now, so don't have a lot of free time lately for posting. However, as some of you know, I work in the Chemicals Industry. After reading that great link from yesterday on imbedded processors, I want to assure all of you that automated operations in chemicals and other manufacturing plants in this country ( and in all of the rest of the developed world for that matter ) are doomed by the presence of these little devils. Even in facilities where there are no sophisticated robotics, etc., THEY ARE EVERYWHERE - Installed in the millions, in order to lower operating costs and get rid of people over the last 10 years or so. Nobody is even considering what might happen when all their "Smart" process controllers go belly up. Oh my! Forget gasoline...forget refined sugar...forget clothing dyes...forget soap ( yep it's a synthetic now ) ...forget infinitum...Got Gold?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:56 - ID#246224)
Doing the straddle
Depressions throw people out of work. Businesses fail. Prices fall. Its good to be in cash, bonds and out of debt with a road map of what you will do if you lose your job. Buying LATER is better since prices are falling ( and money is becoming more valuable ) . It might even be a good idea to not be a mortgage ( home ) owner IF you can sell just prior to the real estate market crumbling. Housing prices drop below principle owed. Then if you lose your job and must sell you will do so at a loss of some magnitude IF YOU CAN FIND A BUYER AT ALL. Some folks in Texas ( late 80's ) after the bubble burst there simply went to the bank and turned the keys in to the loan officer.

Inflation destroys the value of fixed money commitments such as bonds or fixed income accounts such as pensions without cost of living adjustments. If your income rises with inflation ( not a given ) then your debts become much easier to pay IF THEY ARE FIXED RATES. Variable rate loans and mortgages can get racheted up and can suffocate you. Buying NOW is the thing to do since prices are rising ( and the value of money falling in relationship to real things ) .

Depression motto: "cash is king"

Inflation motto: "get real ( things ) "

If you hold cash and 'things' then you can straddle this until it become more clear where the trend is going. Then you can shift from cash to 'things' or 'things' to cash.

Gold an silver things are very low right now in historical terms. It is hard to see a situation in which they will go significantly lower. Buy low and balance your cash/'things' portfolio. Eliminate debt on general principles.

I'm leaning much more toward a deflationary reading than 6 months ago. In part because of the Japan crisis with resultant increasing of inventories in the USA as well as the Y2K pressure that will induce a massive flight OUT of any paper toward real things but which will be arrested by government edict. The resultant implosion of debt will wipe out most of the valuation of those things which are supported in their valuation by credit availability. ( real estate, stocks, even bonds )

Do the straddle.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 18:56 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' bin waitin on ya to come back with that. E-Gold is merely one of
the methods I employ to protect assets. I am not trying to sell you on anything. I'm simply pointing out an option. When and if there is a bank cannot get YOUR money, plain and simple...on the other hand, with the others in the e-gold loop I can do anything I, wait, make an out exchange, but NOBODY but ME has control of MY money.

Get it, MY money, the bank has YOUR money captive plain and simple, plus the fraud government can tell them what to do with YOUR money..

got some e-gold...gulp of Reserva to ya...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:04 - ID#246224)
Yep. That's right. We're toast; burnt for sure. Hope you can bug out when the time comes. Get ready. This September will begin the rumblings of panic as people try to prepare for the coming maelstorm. Do not wait another day. By August of 1999 we will see martial law here. In those 11 months things will slide fast and furious. Know your exit point and do not look back, else you may turn into a pillar of salt.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:05 - ID#255151)
dow 10,000 before Gold $315?

Hell, it could happen. My 2 florins says no, but I have made one or two wrong calls on Kitco before. Speaking of florins, at the height of the tulip mania, a tulip bulb often fetched 2500 florins. Here are some prices for various commodities at that time-- a Silver drinking cup-60; eight fat swine-240; four tuns of beer-32; twelve fat sheep ( heh heh ) -120; a suit of clothes-80; a thousand pounds of cheese-120. There was a merchant who mistakenly sold a tulip bulb to a sailor, thinking it was an onion. He realized to his horror his mistake and went looking for the sailor, only to find him eating the last of his "onion" for breakfast. The merchant lamented that he could have "sumptuously feasted the Prince of Orange and the entire court of Stadtholder" with this bulb.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:13 - ID#269207)
@ All I wanna know, is
where I deposit and make withdrawals of this e-mail stuff. Because should I deposit some of the real stuff, and then decide I want some of it back, just what is the fee going to be to make that withdrawal, and just where might all this happen at?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:18 - ID#253153)
Most US and Canadian gold producers need $300 oz to be profitable
Gold mining producers have the ability to generate enormous profits when receiving prices higher than production costs. In a depression, labor, equipment cost and taxes decline . I have been told that HM at $400 oz could make almost $0.75 per share. It's selling for $10.50 US. Assuming an average multiple of 15 , Homestake could sell for $150 or so.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:18 - ID#255151)
Embedded Chips Analogy

Remember the old Christmas lights where if one bulb burns out, the entire strand goes down? You have to go through the entire strand, bulb by bulb, until you find the culprit. Even if only 1% of chips are Y2K vulnerable, don't you have to go through the entire system, chip by chip, to find the problem? Is this a valid analogy?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:26 - ID#113316)
Beam me up Scotty. There's no intelligent life on this planet ( outside of Kitco that is ) !

I just finished reading the 2Q earnings report for YAHOO! The CNBC news report had touted the excellent earnings report of 15 cents/share which beat Wall Street estimates of 9 cents/share.

Of course, I won't get into the wisdom of paying 50 times REVENUES or 300 times EARNINGS for a stock. Valuations do not matter anymore ( no sh_t ) . It is the "eyeballs" that are important, and expensive eyeballs they be!

What caused me to read the detailed earnings report was the phrase in the CNBC report that the 2Q 15 cents/share was before a one-time charge, but interestingly the CNBC report did not indicate the size of the charge. So let me hit you with these 2Q numbers:

Revenues................................$41.2 million
Earnings Before Charge....................8.1 million
Earnings/Share Before Charge...........15 cent profit
Charge...................................44.1 million
Earnings/Share After Charge..............81 cent loss

The $44.1 million charge was for "research and development" in an acquisition. This non-recurring charge will exceed YAHOO's expected earnings for the entire year.

Interesting thing about these non-recurring charges is that they seem to recur. In the year ago quarter, YAHOO had a $21.2 million non-recurring charge.

Barton Biggs pointed out the widespread use in Corporate America of the use of non-recurring charges to write off recurring expenses. Being the cynic that I am, I just wonder if YAHOO was able to hide a few million of recurring expenses in that $44.1 million charge. You know, ala Al Dunlap!

Conclusion. This stock isn't worth $20 a share let alone $200. Wonder if anyone else feels the same as I do?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:27 - ID#212323)
You are probably hitting the nail on the head and not realizing it. The Seven-up Pete project could very well be the focus with McDonald temporarily back-burnered.

Damn, I might have to head over there and just start diggin' the stuff up myself.

got shovels?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:27 - ID#253246)
Geo ***************CAU

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:28 - ID#288295)
Dave @ e-gold

One thing I'm concerned about with e-gold ( perhaps someone else can help out on this ) the e-gold depository safe ( or better yet, insured ) against a Merkan gummint confiscation? Where is all the e-gold loot stored? Personally, I would rather hold the stuff in my hot little hands.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:29 - ID#212323)
Follow the link Tolerant1 gave earlier... or something like that. Photographic memory has a few smears once in a while.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:29 - ID#431366)
AragornIII - Y2K may do us a favor and return us to old days of Gold
But if this fiat and digital currency "system" continues to grow and become ever more pervasive and invasive - ALL physical money will be relegated to the trash heap of human experience. Gold will come out better than paper - I agree, in a general sense. I do NOT like this new paradigm ( oh how I hate that word ) that is making Gold, as a unit of monetary exchange, obsolete. But I face the reality of there being no Gold or Silver coins in circulation. Poor folk never see the stuff any more except as jewelry or as gold coins which are family heirlooms.

A rebuttal I have heard is e-gold. Big deal. At some point this depository will realize that the physical is costing them too much to store. Nobody uses it - they use digits on a computer screen instead - just like we do now with dollars and will be done with Euros. It will be extemely rare that somebody actually takes delivery of the physical. If they do it will be temporary while they admire it and show it off to close friends. Then they will realize they don't want it in the house as a temptation to thieves. So they send it back to e-gold vaults. Eventually e-gold will be able to have maybe 1% of their deposited assets in the physical - because only one in a hundred people ever actually want to see their Gold. A really big depositer could throw them for a loop - until they borrow enough from somewhere to let Daddy Bigbucks fondle his Golden for a while. Once he is placated and redeposits his Gold - they can return what they had borrowed.

But back to fiat money. They shuffle piles of dollars and euros and yen around to balance their books - not! They don't even do it with physical paper or plastic money that much - and will do it even less as the cybercurrency becomes more pervasive.

Gold will be relegated to tooth fillings, jewelry, electronics and other industrial uses. The only thing that can save its role as a store of value and medium of exchange is a major, thorough meltdown of the world's financial "system" which is long overdue and couldn't come too soon ( actually give it another few months so I can stock up on beef stew ) .

P.S. The example of the time capsules ignores the current collector's value of those old notes in good condition.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:31 - ID#288295)

Yep, except this is a VERY large string, and there are NO replacement bulbs available.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:33 - ID#253246)
Geo ******************CAU

Thanks for the info , When I purchursed CAU I never thought the
opposition to the Mcdonald project was that strong however I came
across this site and can see that it will take alot of $$$$$ for canyon
to get the necessary permits. I get depressed just posting this site
however one should look at all aspects of an investment

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:33 - ID#238422)
Did you see "Red Dawn" movie? Brigade of Cuban-Russian
warriors capturing a waste territory of the U.S. and
a few brave youngsters successuffly putting up a fight
with those soldiers who previously knocked the whole
U.S. army down?

Would you discount this story, or consider it to be realistic
scenario? In what way is this story different from the
story of ELITE RISSIAN TROOPS IN THE US ( Oh, my God!!!! ) .

There are some things you may really want to discount...
if you believe your brain deserves self-respect.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:35 - ID#266105)

On the subject of yahoos and such, the comment was
made today that has 6mm shares available to
the public for trade and traded over 9mm today.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:35 - ID#431366)
Auric - it took me two tries to figure out the ramifications of the lightbulb idea
Date: Wed Jun 24 1998 08:25
Grizz ( Slingshot and ALL: re Year2000 a.k.a. Y2K ) ID#431366:
Copyright  1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

An analogy I've been using for those bright enough to understand it - A string of Christmas lights with 10,000 bulbs wired in series - those where if one blows the whole string goes dark. You plug in the string and nothing, nada, darkness abounds - not only in the bulbs but in your spirit as you contemplate the job that lies ahead. Only maybe 1% of those bulbs are bad. You would throw out the whole string if it wasn't nailed down to every corner, roofline, gutter, and window perimeter around your whole house and the trees and shrubs too! It is December 13th and you have 12 days to find all the bad bulbs. You also have other work to do so you can't spend every waking hour trying light bulbs. You could hire some neighbor kids to do it. Let's see - if you put 100 of today's kids on the job - each checking a portion of the string...

Date: Wed Jun 24 1998 13:06
Grizz ( Reify - about those 10,000 points of light ;- ) ID#431366:
Copyright  1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

In my 08:25 I overlooked how many people are needed to change 10,000 light bulbs - the necessity of hiring a committee to issue requests for proposals, consultants to study the problem, engineers to design solutions, more consultants to get all the various permits, procurement departments to requisition the forms to requisition the bulbs, electrical inspectors to make sure the work meets code, environmental compliance officers, equipment operators for the boom lifts, safety officer, OSHA inspectors, an on-site office with secretaries for all the above officers, managers, bookkeeper, accountant, and payroll officer; food vendors ( who are properly permitted & inspected ) , a lunchroom, a janitor, and last but not least - provider of porta potties for the work crews.
Did I forget anybody?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:35 - ID#24997)
Count down clock to the new Millenium
For those interested, go to Site Map, then North America, Canada, Calgary. You will find a count down clock to the new Millenium.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:36 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron...same to you as to Dave...explore the link
E-gold views their contract with you as having precedence over any Govt attempt at confiscation...which by the way the Govt could never pull off. Tolerant1 will see to THAT!
They have storage in a number of bullion depositories, but I know that is not the right word, including, I beleive, some in Switzerland.
They are a private corporation, run by people with the same monetary mindset as prevails here at Kitco. This is really the only game in town for gold to find use as money. Why should we want or expect our Govt to play a role in our monetary affairs? Kinda like the BIS for the common man.

got visionaries?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:38 - ID#255151)

I have read estimates ranging from 500 Billion to 1 Trillion chips, with .5% to 10% being Y2K date sensitive. No one really seems to know. Are your figures close to this?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:39 - ID#242325)
Dusenberg says ECB has not yet determined the the value per ounce of the gold to be transferred. If the assumed price is substantially below current market values, that 15% reserve figure could involve much more than 900 tons of bullion.

Full story
FOCUS-Duisenberg says ECB to control ESCB gold,
09:56 a.m. Jul 08, 1998 Eastern

FRANKFURT, July 8 ( Reuters ) - Dollars, gold and other foreign reserve
assets held by national central banks will be brought under indirect control
of the European Central Bank by the end of 1998, ECB President Wim
Duisenberg said on Wednesday.

The statement may go some way to reassuring the gold and foreign
exchange markets that ``excess'' national reserves will not be dumped and
thereby depress prices after EMU ( economic and monetary union ) starts in
January next year.

``Before the end of this year the governing council will have to adopt an
ECB guideline...which will subject all operations in foreign reserve assets
remaining with the national central banks, including gold, to approval by
the European Central Bank,'' Duisenberg told a news conference.

Duisenberg confirmed that the 11 euro zone central banks would pool 39.5
billion euros of their foreign reserve assets with the ECB on January 1,
1999, according to each bank's share in the ECB's capital.

Gold would make up 15 percent of this total, while unspecified other
``foreign currency assets'' would make up the remainder.

Gold has been under pressure for the last 18 months due to fears that
central banks of the 11 euro-zone countries would sell off surplus gold.
The price of the metal sank in January to 18-1/2 year lows below $280 an

After Duisenbergs statement, the price fell about two dollars an ounce on
market disappointment that he had not announced tougher curbs on gold
sales by central banks. At 1311 GMT, gold was quoted at $292.50/93.00
per ounce, down from Tuesday nights New York close of $294.70/95.20.

The national central banks ( NCBs ) already pool 20 percent of their gold
and dollar reserves with the ECB in order to back up the European
Monetary System. In return they receive official Ecus on their balance
sheets. These quarterly Ecu swaps will continue until the end of 1998,
central bankers have said.

In answer to a question, Duisenberg said the valuation of gold and other
reserves to be transferred to the ECB would be determined later in the
year, meaning the exact tonnage of gold to be pooled in Frankfurt cannot
yet be estimated.

Duisenberg said the ECB guideline on assets remaining with the NCBs
would be issued under Article 31 of the ESCB statutes.

That article obliges NCBs to seek prior approval from the ECB for reserve
operations above an undefined ``certain order to ensure
consistency with the exchange rate and monetary policies of the

Before announcing that national reserves would be brought under ECB
control, Duisenberg said: ``I should stress that the decision on the
percentage of gold to be transferred to the ECB will have no implications
for the consolidated gold holdings of the European System of Central

It was not immediately clear what that statement meant, but the ESCB also
extends to central banks outside the euro zone. NCBs from countries not
taking part in EMU are exempted from the obligation to pool their assets in
Frankfurt, explaining why the 39.5 billion euros announced on
Wednesday is below the 50 billion euros level set out in the Maastricht

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:39 - ID#285121)
What did Slick get for Taiwan sellout ????
IMHO China devaluation delayed until after November elections. Think about it.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:41 - ID#212323)
I can't take it win. My forehead ain't gettin' any flatter...
You've convinced me to dump all my gold, with the exception of a particular coin that holds some special meaning.

got whatever?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:43 - ID#242325)
Gold and BC
I am no fan of Bill Clinton. But some posters here seem to forget that this is supposed to be a gold thread, not a hate Clinton thread.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:45 - ID#286230)
Arnett saves his job
Warning --Some may wish to check Pepto supply before reading

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:46 - ID#269207)
@ I see said the blindman
and silverbaron has a small point or three...... i think I am jus going to wait an see. When it comes to real, that's exactly where I am going be, with it.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:46 - ID#212323)
To borrow from they enjoyable style of EB

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:48 - ID#255151)
Grizz 19:35

Thanks, I had missed those posts. They put the embedded chip problem into a readily understandable form. That's a keeper.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:48 - ID#288295)
Aragorn III @ e-gold
I once investigated e-gold in some depth; even to the point of contacting them and receiving their prospectus as a possible startup investor. I judged it a little too risky at the time. Still do. Visionaries? I think so, but is it in the character of most hard money advocates to release their gold/silver and turn it into electronic pulses? I wonder.....

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:51 - ID#285121)
OLD Gold
You must believe that a China devaluation will have no effect on gold ?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:51 - ID#286230)
Mulroney, hockey greats top Order of Canada List
ABX Director given award

Ice and snow Inhabitants Enter at own risk

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:54 - ID#288295)
Gee - you flatter me with thinking I know much at all about this....hadn't given it much thought until I read that link yesterday ( or perhaps the day before ) on imbedded processors. I see only a small view of the world in my work with automated chemicals production processes, so I can't judge the size of the beast. I only know, if my view is in any way typical of manufacturing systems, is is VERY BIG, indeed!

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:54 - ID#212323) last post then I'm outta here.
Nothing beats the security of holding your own gold. Unfortunately this is not an issue for me as Grizz has prompted my divestiture. But if I were still a gold owner, I would keep the bulk of it on hand, and only put in account at e-gold the amount necessary for your daily transactions. This account is also where you receive gold payments from others, so if you are earning more than you spend, you would probably be making periodic withdrawls. But, this is no longer my problem. Best of luck to you. Think outside the box. Be your own human. Regards.

got creativity?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 19:59 - ID#287186)
e-gold and Wilmington Trust - any parallels?
Was Ole' actually in trouble back in June? Here a a few posts of a considerable string of conversation. I've reposted them in reverse order.

Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 19:13
Silverbaron ( Ole' ) ID#273432:
Copyright  1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Your situation with Wilmington Trust really seems to me that more is here than meets the eye.....I hate to be one who sees creatures under every rock - but Wilmington has been in this business a long time, so something must be up. A couple things could be afoot here - perhaps the stockpiles have grown so small that the storage fees aren't profitable for them, or more sinister thoughts would be that they are going out of the business as a COMEX depository because ( 1 ) they don't want to get trapped in litigation when the paper game blows up, or ( 2 ) they are closing to generate some silver liquidity to get the big boys out before the game is up. Unfortunately, part of this liquidity may be YOUR silver.....You can get the names of the other COMEX repositories from the COMEX daily stocks report - click on FWN - Metals at

Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 19:56
FOX-MAN__A ( Ole' & Silverbaron re; Silver stocks at the Warehouse ) ID#288186: Silverbaron; Very interesting observation. If Ole' does own more than 5,021 oz of Silver at this Depository, then are they playing a numbers game with registered versus eligible? If I understand correctly, registered stocks are spoken for and eligible are not. Hmmmmmmm. Fox-Man

Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 20:08
Silverbaron ( Ole'@ ) ID#273432: I hate to say it, but my gut feeling is that you actually have ZERO ounces silver stored at Wilmington, and that's why they are closing you ( and everybody else ) out.... A. Goose and Arden - What do you think about this situation? Is Wilmington Trust a paper game????

Date: Tue Jun 16 1998 03:22
Squirrel ( dirt - you are not the first to refer me to e-gold ) ID#287186: I have checked out their website. They assure us that their e-gold is backed by GOLD, That we can deposit Gold or withdraw Gold as we wish. Hmmmm - perhaps like the disappearance of Ol's Silver in Wilmington Trust? See his post on Fri Jun 05 1998 19:54 {and those just before} and numerous posts of fellow Kitcoites thereafter lending him advice and support. And it is not that e-golds address might color my perception any:
e-goldtm is administered exclusively by Gold & Silver Reserve, Inc. 1013 Centre Road, Suite 350 Wilmington, DE 19805

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:00 - ID#20748)
Some good comments by E-mail

Finance - Precious Metals Report for Wednesday, July
08, 1998

Your personalized e-mail news, brought to you by InfoBeat
To modify your profile, click here.

COMEX and NYMEX precious metals prices ended mostly lower
Wednesday as a firmer U.S. dollar overnight and news from the
European Central Bank ( ECB ) regarding how much gold it would hold
in its reserves weighed on values.

"The ECB decision to hold 15 pct of its reserves in gold may be
slightly bearish short term, in that it is probably at low end of
market expectations, but the more significant news was that the
ECB is moving to take control of national European central bank
reserves," said Charles von Arentschildt, Deutche Bank's New York
managing director for bullion sales.

ECB President Wim Duisenberg said Wednesday that the ECB's initial
ECB reserves will be approximately 39.5 billion ECUs, and that
gold would make up 15 percent of the reserves.

Duisenberg also said he wants to bring under ECB control the
foreign reserve asset operations, including gold, of Europe's
national central banks ( NCBs ) .

Duisenberg said that by the end of the year the ECB's governing
council will have to adopt guidelines for the European System of
Central Banks ( ESCB ) that will put the ECB in control of
individual central bank reserves assets.

"What this means is that there is much less chance in future of
unilateral action to sell gold by individual European central
banks," said Deutsche's von Arentschildt.

( Reuters 04:39 PM ET 07/08/98 ) For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Jul 98 0 0 0 293.30 -1.70 305.70 293.00
Aug 98 295.80 297.00 292.20 294.20 -1.70 403.80 284.50
Sep 98 0 0 0 295.30 -1.70 296.10 296.10
Oct 98 296.00 296.60 294.50 296.50 -1.70 367.80 288.90
Dec 98 300.90 300.90 296.50 298.40 -1.70 505.00 287.00
Feb 99 299.10 300.10 299.00 300.10 -1.70 349.50 293.00
Apr 99 0 0 0 301.90 -1.70 351.20 291.50
Jun 99 303.40 303.70 303.40 303.70 -1.70 520.00 295.40
Aug 99 0 0 0 305.40 -1.70 327.00 315.80
Oct 99 0 0 0 307.10 -1.70 319.50 319.50
Dec 99 0 0 0 308.80 -1.70 506.00 299.50
Est. Sales 36000

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Jul 98 536.50 536.50 526.00 532.70 -4.30 738.00 437.00
Aug 98 0 0 0 534.20 -4.30 518.20 518.20
Sep 98 541.00 544.50 526.00 536.50 -4.30 728.00 458.50
Dec 98 545.50 545.50 530.00 540.70 -4.30 734.00 448.50
Jan 99 0 0 0 542.30 -4.30 688.20 464.10
Mar 99 0 0 0 543.10 -4.30 690.00 473.00
May 99 0 0 0 544.70 -4.30 656.00 493.00
Jul 99 0 0 0 546.20 -4.30 688.00 472.00
Sep 99 0 0 0 547.40 -4.30 698.00 504.30
Dec 99 0 0 0 548.70 -4.30 720.00 484.00
Est. Sales 9000

----------------------HIGH GRADE COPPER-----------------------
COMEX - 25,000 lbs. cents per lb.
Jul 98 72.20 72.20 71.70 71.75 -.25 104.30 71.60
Aug 98 72.30 72.30 71.95 71.95 -.25 102.00 71.95
Sep 98 72.45 72.75 72.05 72.20 -.20 102.10 72.00
Oct 98 72.60 72.70 72.35 72.40 -.20 101.05 72.40
Nov 98 73.20 73.20 72.70 72.70 -.15 98.80 74.50
Dec 98 73.15 73.35 72.90 72.95 -.20 102.00 72.90
Jan 99 73.45 73.45 73.25 73.25 -.20 98.00 75.00
Feb 99 73.75 73.95 73.45 73.45 -.20 97.70 75.00
Mar 99 73.80 74.00 73.65 73.65 -.20 97.50 73.70
Apr 99 0 0 0 73.80 -.20 97.40 73.85
May 99 74.40 74.40 74.05 74.05 -.10 97.40 74.00
Jun 99 0 0 0 74.15 -.10 97.25 74.10
Jul 99 74.35 74.50 74.30 74.30 -.05 97.25 74.20
Aug 99 0 0 0 74.45 0 95.05 75.80
Sep 99 74.80 74.80 74.55 74.55 0 95.90 74.40
Oct 99 0 0 0 74.65 0 91.00 76.00
Nov 99 0 0 0 74.75 0 87.00 76.20
Dec 99 75.30 75.30 74.85 74.85 0 86.00 74.70
Est. Sales 7000

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep 98 289.00 293.00 288.00 289.20 -1.95 359.00 190.30
Dec 98 0 0 0 281.70 +.55 350.00 205.00
Est. Sales 106

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Jul 98 0 0 0 387.10 +1.10 432.00 340.00
Oct 98 377.00 383.80 375.00 382.10 +1.10 425.00 343.00
Jan 99 381.50 382.60 381.50 382.60 +1.10 419.10 348.00
Apr 99 0 0 0 382.60 +1.10 410.00 348.00
Jul 99 0 0 0 382.60 +1.10 399.90 364.00
Est. Sales 1753

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:02 - ID#210114)
Skip: See what I mean......
A few days ago I was criticised for always being negative on gold. Here's an example of why.

Yesterday, ECB head Duisberg announces that ECB gold reserves will be 15% of the total. That's at the high range of the 10 - 15% figure anounced two months ago. He then said that the ECB will take control over all central bank reserves. Sounds like good news for gold doen't it???

No. The price fell $2 an ounce.

There just doesn't seem to be any good news as far as gold is concerned.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:04 - ID#431366)
Aragorn III - I must say I enjoy your posts
We may disagree but at least we get the arguments on the table.
I may be full of it ( after eating too much beef stew ) .
But a bear has to stretch his legs once in a while.
It gets too cramped up in the cave.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:05 - ID#411112)
Oris......conspiracy is my middle name,I trust nothing... question everything..besides its my job..,

we can argue over the merits and motivation
of any one who is pushing a book,this guy was
in Russian Miltary Intelligence....he
defected to the US in the 80's,has been in
the witness protection program ever since he
defected,you can discount some but not
all...he goes on to talk about red mercury
something I know something about...Russian
Mafia.....many small sells in the US......but
one thing he said is a fact many true
communist Russians still hate the US and feel
it should be destroyed.....the book comes out
to-morrow spend a few bucks and make up your
own mind

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:12 - ID#240288)
Embedded Chips

Did a little surfing. The most common figure I saw was about 25 Billion embedded chips in existence, not 500 Billion. Whew! I was worried for a minute!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:17 - ID#43460)
Insurrection in Merka's 51st state:
Several years ago I had a Puerto Rican friend, Edmundo was his name, married to a stunning lady from Morocco, who told me many PR stories. Now it saddens me to see such news. If PR is the de facto poorest Merkan state then Louisiana, Mississippi, Philadelphia and Los Angeles might not be far behind in their discontent. IMHO this bodes for inflation of welfare benefits to quiet the storm.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:20 - ID#285121)
Gold and Politics
To even try to seperate the two subjects is blind running stupidity.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:20 - ID#240288)
Oh Sh**!

This dude says 40 Billion chips. That's 40,000,000,000. Now 25B would have been a piece of cake. But 40B...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:25 - ID#284255)
Allen - thoughts and opinions - from my deeper self.
I agree wholeheartedly with your scenario.
Already I have reduced my debt by half.
Currently working to get my last house up for sale.
Should be sold by September.
Leaving me debt free and cashed up.
Will then be starting to squirrel my way into physical,
Cash in hand and stocking up on food stores etc.
Grabbing a bus and heading for the hills. ( 60 miles away. )
To spend this coming chaotic time away from the masses.

I don't like to think that I am alarmist or neurotic in my actions.
More so protectionist.
Feeling that family security is paramount.
I have drifted away from my charting/investing interests.
Due to this new found concern re Y2k.

Over the last few months I have been researching Y2k.
I have printed out well over 2000 pages of info on this.
Probably read 5 times this amount.
I have devoured everything in sight,
From the obscure to the radical.
From one end of the spectrum to the other.
There are many voices and opinions on the subject.
Opinions varying from extremist to "Don't worry."

My depth of concern is rising constantly.
Reading 50 to 150 reports/articles/comments per day.
Many days putting in 15 to 18 hours of research.

I have come to the conclusion that the globe is heading into a contraction.
There are times to expand ones horizons and leverage ones position to encompass growth.
There are also times to contract, pull in ones horns and be protectionist.
This is now where I see us all travelling.

Believe me when I say that I am getting more concerned.
These are not my own fears,
But fears taken from the many experts of the world.
Comprehension of the forth-coming chaos is spreading.
Awareness of the levels to which mankind relies on all this interdependency/interconnectivity.

This hurdle is not going to be a peaceful one.
I vote to remove myself to the fringes to await the chaotic transition.
Not hiding my head between my legs.
Rather protecting my family, my wealth, my security.
This is my choice through my vision.
I do not do this lightly - without thought.
To remove a 500k mortgage, uproot my home and family.
These changes do not come easy - without pain.

But this is what I must do.
Our family through its new found awareness accepts this.

Because of this necessity of change.
I find I must devote more time to the preparation.
I have a magnificent 400sm home which has been half painted.
( Prometheus often mentions, 'Watching the paint drying' )
I must step up the level of work.
I must achieve my ends by my means.
There is a deadline - beyond which will cost me dearly.

Therefore I am sad to say I will not
Be as frequent a visitor to the hallowed_halls_@Kitco
As I would desire.
I will not be spending 12hrs plus a day.
Ascertaining whether or not Y2k is going to be a risk.
Nor whether physical is a buy or not.
I will not be surfing the WWW for knowledge.

I know enough now, from what I have read.
To realize that change is coming.
I am not running away,
More-so moving forward.
I see things I don't like coming,
And have the nous to remove myself.
This is my choice through my awareness.

And it's not like I'll do it tough out there.
Certain comforts and habits will be indulged.
Lifestyles enjoyed.
One can't give up smelling the roses.
There are too many pleasures in ones life
To waste time otherwise.

So my many_friends@Kitco
I say thank you.
I say thank you for many things.
For the sharing and the caring.
For the knowledge and aspiration.
For sharing poetry and worldly visions of gold.
Thoughts, books, charts and many urls.
( My bookmarks now approaching 2500 )

I have grown wiser and richer from the experience.
In many ways we all have.
Life is thus - for sharing and caring.
Money is just a tool we think we need for traveling this road.
It is not the reason we travel this road.
Life is richer than this.

To all.
I am not leaving yet.
More so changing back to lurking.
Just an hour a day will suffice.
But work must be done, preparations achieved.
"The will to power," must be exercised.

To all.
Take this as a warning.
We are approaching a changing world.
Need I say this here - on Kitco?
Where knowledge abounds.
Yes!!! - Because it will effect all our lives.

It is time to rethink one's life.
Time to pull one's horns in and be protectionary.
To nurture and consolidate ones position.
Experience tell us this.
Knowledge supports this.

Beware and bewarned Y2k will impact - and soon.
Take good care and think hard on this one.
I can not overemphasize this facet.

To all.
Thank you all so much.
Life has been appreciated.
Friendships shared and enjoyed.
The value of friends and gold has grown solidly.
And a hearty gulp to you all.
GO GOLD - soon.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:33 - ID#288295)

Thanks for all the hours and the posts, and all the information you have funneled our way. Your presence will truly be missed greatly. If the Y2K thing turns out badly, as you suspect it will, at least you have the knowledge that you helped educate some into saving themselves. Thanks again.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:34 - ID#280222)
long time no post...
Hi y'all. FWIW Asarco says copper is oversold...imagine! What's the old saw linking copper to gold? REQUEST: Bohl isn't working for me, what's another good place for ( updated ) commodity charts?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:37 - ID#258427)
Bad's 50 billion
25-40 Billion would be a snap...but 50 billion....zowieeee!

By the way..this guy says 1-3 % will fail...if 1% - thats 50,000,000 ( 50 million ) with 500 days left we ONLY have to find and fix one million PER DAY...sheeks...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:38 - ID#258427)
Damm..change 50 million to 500 million

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:39 - ID#430212)
I am in total agreement with you. There seems to be NO news that comes out lately that is bullish for gold or gold stocks. All news seems to be
taken negatively. If only our dollar vs. other currencies WEAKENS then and only then will you see a bull market in gold and gold stocks.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:40 - ID#288295)
Savage - try this:

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:43 - ID#269207)
@Aragorn III, yessir I plan too,
and as for the email being immune to government seizure, all I can do is
^S^ at that idea, because I ain seen nothin here in this here merika was yet, and I see about 2,000 volumes of laws books here, yes sir, I cetainly do, and I ain seen nothin yet, that they ain a takin if they want it, and I done' give a damn who had or has it...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:45 - ID#317193) to us as you can...I hope you are wrong...good fortune be with you and yours
Be safe and at peace.


Dave in CO
(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:46 - ID#229103)
@SILVERFOX - YAHOO's creative one-time charges
I tried to make this same point about U.S. corporations in general here a couple of nights ago and used Al Dunlap as the example. Because of executive compensation having shifted from an emphasis on salary to stock options and bonuses, there has to be temptation to be creative on the upside with earnings. Moreover, the stock and pension fund managers must be exerting pressure as well. Is this a possible factor for the ever-expanding bubble?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:48 - ID#232328)
Thanks for saving my position in silver...
As usual, I've been lurking and saw Squirrel's posting referring to my past Wilmington Trust debacle. Just thought I would thank many of you for responding and helping to point me in the direction of potential companies that might take my leveraged silver bullion account after Wilmington "dumped me and everyone else." I researched various sources and decided to transfer to MONEX and was able to avoid liquidating my position in silver when it was, by then, $5.10 or so. All has ended well, as far as I am concerned ( so far ) , and it shows that there is good to this discussion group kitco site... at times : ) Let's now wait to see if my patience is going to pay off by having silver hit $9 or $10 in 1998!!!! Thanks to those who cared to help!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:48 - ID#280222)
muchas gracias
Thanks Tom ( Silverbaron ) ...say Tom, what is your real job anyway? ( you must be one of those computor savvy folks )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:49 - ID#224151)
Anyone know what "webs" are.....some sort of trading vehicle on the ASE.Nothing to do with the internet. Apparently there are Japan webs...swedish webs...etc that trade like stocks on the ASE.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:50 - ID#288295)

Nope - no speaka da computerese....a chemical engineer...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:51 - ID#280222)
more muchas gracias
FIN THAT SHARES...dittos. And, good hunting.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 20:53 - ID#210114)
Greed is Good
Must heartily agree with PMF 8:45.

"Quite frankly, I think that the lost lustre in gold is simply a reflection of the hyper-return mentality of the last 10 years. If you don't see a 30% return then the asset is underperforming and should be dumped."

Live Long and Prosper

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:00 - ID#288295)
Pedro @ webs

I think they are baskets of stocks that mirror country index funds, and trade like stocks. Something like SPDRs ( Standard & Poors Depositary Receipts ) are for the S&P index.

Bully Beef
(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:03 - ID#259282)
Sell gold Microsoft!
Saw Bill Gates article in the Sun group newspaper in Canada. I hate the Sun but I read it sometimes just to get uninformed. Bill Gates is a know it all ... giving out advise about Cancer and world affairs now. People assume because he is rich he knows something. A column in a news paper weekly? Isn 't it enough to be a billionare? Does he really need to be a columnist? Do I need to be one? NO!!!!!!!! Right! Bill Gates is God! Grow up! The only thing I want to see his signature on is a blank check! Spare me advise!....Down in flaming glory.... Not with a whimper but a bang. Somehow I imagine Bill Gates dieing by choking on oatmeal porridge or milqtoast or cold moistened soft spagetti. Go Microsoft! Go Flaccid soft! Go to bed!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:08 - ID#255151)

Pedro--Here is a site with some info on WEBS, with a plethora of cool links.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:16 - ID#288295)
Bully Beef
hahahahahahahahahhaha!'m outa here....Gold.up.tomorrow

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:17 - ID#288295)

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:26 - ID#253153)
Low oil prices will shut down independent drillers
I had a cocktail tonight with an old friend, one of the largest independent drillers in Texas. He said " we can't drill and make money at $14 bb. I'm
going to downsize my operation and lay off 50% of my employees " .I suggested to him that deflation has taken a hold and oil prices may decline further. He said " if this is true, than 80% of the independent drillers will be out of business ". Independent drillers in the US employ more than 200,000 people. Deflation will spread like cancer from one economic segment to another. Our government will be late in identifying it's causes and coming up with solutions. Think about all these poor banks holding energy loans.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:29 - ID#401460)


(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:35 - ID#255151)
Royal Oak-(with apologies to Haggis)

Looking at the chart, I have only this to say, "Oak, Aye yi yi! Noooooo!"

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:36 - ID#220325)
Martin Armstrong an analyst of convenience?
In his current Y2K dissertation in reference to gold holder believing that fiat money will becom worthles he states, " Much of these types of comments come from those who are stil obsessed with gold who in one way or another pray for a world collapse and the end of civiization just so their precious metal will rise in value".

This leads one to believe that he has has been right in his predictions, allow me to elucidate from his Armstrong Report Issue#7 July 1993 Edition page 12.

"As we stated in our last report on gold...Clearly, a weekly closing above 419.30 will signal a new bull market ahead. We suspect that gold will accelerate in its upward momentum substantially following a monthly close above 404.40. This would probably cause massive short covering on the part of some producers" We see little change in this view and remain optimistic that we will be dealing with a major new bull market looking for a high as early as 1996 or as late as 1998."

It's interesting how time and changing conditions warp one's perspective.

MARTIN SEEMS TO HAVE 100% HINDSIGHT. His foresight is a little dim!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:36 - ID#224151)
Many Thanks!
@ Auric.....I knew someone at Kitco would deliver the goods! Great site!Go Gold.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:42 - ID#247273)
Thanks for the posting about Yahoo. The P/E only proves the greater fool theory. After this current fury has subsided, we will have only brokers trading stocks among themselves, feeding upon each other, which must happen when inflows slow and eventually stop. The game will get much tougher. Take out the automatic inflows, and all else will cease. It is indeed an unbelievable scenario that this has continued for so long.
Most great changes happen over longer time horizons, particularly the replacement of money for more worthless representations, but I believe we have even outdone ourselves on this one.
And with full historical knowledge and warning.

thanks sharefin, and good fortune to you.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:45 - ID#43460)
Sharefin re y2k observation by Jake Vest
Are you familiar with the comic strip "That's Jake" written by Jake vest? He wrote a y2k strip not too long ago. In it the 2 characters were sitting, fishing, and one was talking about how much he worried about y2k. The other one replied something to the tune of 'do you think that the fish will notice?' IMHO

I too have been thinking about selling my house and moving further out into the country, but not from fear of y2k, rather because I like the country. But to run and hide in the woods seems like it would bypass the best opportunities that are still available for a ( wo ) man with vision and guts. And maybe, just maybe, with a gold grubstake when the sh*t hits the fan. IMHO

I may be wrong here and not sensitive enough to the pulse of the times but in my part of the world a lot of people just think of the present wealth as an anomaly soon to go away so why not enjoy it while its here? Most of the people I know are just one or two generations away from living in houses with leaks in the roofs, outdoor toilets or worse. So y2k is as good an excuse as another to go fishing. IMHO

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:47 - ID#300202)
Just got bits & pieces of tail end. New Directive by U.N. All newborns
to be registered with - don't know if it was UNESCO or WHO. Not gud.
Have no idea how same wud be enforced. Maybe diehard Kitcoites r not
so buggy after all.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:50 - ID#224151)
Didn't mean to overlook your efforts on Webs.Many tnx to you too!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:54 - ID#373284)
UN-American, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

(Wed Jul 08 1998 21:59 - ID#242258)
O.K., conspiracy is business too, but I will
never buy such book because I'm from Russia myself...
and I've seen many colonels alive and even drank
vodka with some of them...which was always more
productive for real knowledge than to read
"colonel" books...

I'll let you read it and report later on your
findings, if you wish, yes?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:00 - ID#373284)
surely, to the fin that shares, nothing but the best of good luck and fortune to you
from the Island that is Long...A GIANT RESERVA Gulp to you and yours...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:01 - ID#28994)
Looking thru your Canoe Top Stories, I ran across an article on Canadian gun registration. I previously thought Canada to be a socialist country operated by a bunch of left wing wackos. But now I must change my mind - its Communist!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:01 - ID#341214)
Sharefin: Amen and amen.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:06 - ID#373284)
fundaMETAList, Namaste'
So what is your take on gold, silver, Y2K, go ahead, I dare ya, sum it up in a few words. A tequila gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:21 - ID#286234)
Best of luck to ya.
In a while crocodile.
And hey!
Don't take no wooden NICKels!;- )

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:24 - ID#300202)
This is not a debate BUT-Toronto has maybe 3 mill persons-60 murders
per yr would be epidemic. Detroit-maybe 1/2 mill. Best guess @ 450-
600 murders. Something must be working properly in the True North
Strong & Free.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:28 - ID#209135)
some easy thoughts
Yes I find it strange that persons living on Long Island giving Gold coins to children while been inebriated post on the Kitco page at no fault except complete ignorance or maybe a friend of old Bart and no mention of Gold. I also feel very perturbed about all the Americans polluting Stephenville in Canada with no remorse or penalty. I would say shame on all Americans.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:31 - ID#300202)
U have to realize that this culture is not gun fixated. In fact-to visit
for lack of a better example a Dearborn shopping mall & see rent a cops
armed to the hilt/handcuffs/sunglasses & brim pulled down to the Vicious Level is intimidating. Somehow I felt more insecure around the rentals
than the shoppers

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:33 - ID#57232)
Glad to hear Kitco came to the rescue
Ole: I'm glad to hear that you were able to avoid selling your silver holdings, with the help of Monex. This site is overly bullish gold, and overly bearish equities markets, partially because all of us focus on the 'warts' of the current paper economies. Unfortunately it is very hard to guage just how far the belief in 'paper' can go -- the degree of faith in the US dollar and the paper equities is a hard thing to quantify.

I think part of the problem deals with the need to stand back and understand human nature. Most humans are passive beings most of the time, and accept slowly increasing hardships, such as rising taxes, creeping government regulation, creeping bureacracy, despite the fact that most of what government does is non productive.

We are like slow cooked frogs. If you put a frog in hot water he jumps out. But, if you turn up the heat slowly we do not notice, and we are cooked. There the analogy ends, because eventually we ( the people ) have enough, and rise up against our leaders, demanding change. It takes alot for this to happen. Look at Russia -- it is amazing what the average Russian is putting up with now.

So -- it is no surprise that our long awaited gold rally is so slow in coming. It is becuase of the folly of human nature to endure so much punishment before finally hopping out of the fire. If we better understood human nature we would be much better investors.

Looking at Russia again, and using Ravi Sarkar's analogies, the 'workers' ( us ) will eventually rise up and place new leaders at the helm -- either by election or by force. This period is often very brief. If the new leaders ( 'warriors' ) are well chosen, things will go well. If not -- the possibilities can very very bad indeed.

The age old human cycle begins anew, with the acquisitor 'banker' types being overthrown by the workers, and the warriors are placed in charge. We need only look to Indonesia and Russia to see examples ( with minor twists of this analogy ) . Indonesia does not yet have the warrior type in charge, but still has a leftover from the old regime at the helm. The workers may yet speak again.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:36 - ID#411259)
..... Squirrel .....

You forgot my contribution to the Wilmington thingie:

"Republic Bank bought Wilmington. It is as simple as that. It happens all the time; one company buys another and consolidations occur. This is the case with Wilmington. I had no idea they were playing such hardball with their clients. I remember when they first got into leverage accounts. I spoke with the Vice President at a mining conference in San Francisco a couple years ago and I asked him why they wanted the headache of leverage accounts. He seemed to think it was a stretch for them and wondered aloud about the wisdom of getting into the leverage business. Seems that time told.

There are no games going on with COMEX inventories - other than the fact they have been dwindling for two years now. December 31, 1996 COMEX stocks did not include Wilmington stocks. On Jan 1 1997 over 45 million ounces were added to COMEX numbers as Wilmington became part of reportable inventory. Absent Wilmington silver, COMEX stocks would now be only about 40 million ounces.

This is no shell game. Republic took over, thats all. We had dozens of people convert their accounts to my company with just a FAX and zero client cost. Apparently Ole found the transfer easy and without cost.

Regarding confiscation:

I think it is a red herring. If it come down to armed seizure, nobody is safe - not even the well armed. The big boys got more guns bubba, and they would purely like to blast anybody that says no.

This e-gold thingie sounds like a wonderful sales pitch, but unless the gold is in your hands it is not yours. I am surprised that some of those who stand astride the pulpit to declare paper evil and then open a e-gold account and think they are even marginally more secure.

Here the KEY:

If you own gold, dont tell anybody about it. If you do, when they come to take it, your neighbor will gladly tell the soldiers how much gold you are hiding - because he had not the foresight to hide any of his own and he hates you because of your gold. That whole avarice envy keep up with the Joness trap; and now he has the goods on you and he will twist the knife up between the ribs before finding the vital soft tissue underneath and driving the blade home.

Seizure is a non issue. If they know you have it and they want it, they will take it.

The only way I can envision this happening is in a total breakdown of US society. Dont bring up the Roosevelt seizure to combat my point because we are a harder and vastly more cynical lot than we were in those, our Nations greener days. An order from the Sovereign State to surrender gold would be met with one gigantic guffaw emanating from the collected souls that make up our families and neighbors. "From our cold, dead fingers" would be the cry and shout and all who breathe free air will stand beside us and join in that cry.

We are Sovereign Souls are we!

And you shant take our gold!

OK, OK.

That whole shant thing at the end sounded kinda weak, yes? I had a pretty good rant going until I started sounding like an English butler. I can face it.."Shant" is mamby pamby. Im out of practice.


(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:37 - ID#247273)
Appropriate time to say....
Sharefin is wise. If for no other reason than to rejoin the real world.

Wherever that may be, whether in the hills or in the towns and cities. The true message, IMHO, is that we all have a cyber presence and being, and I view this as analogous to the Ham radio or other comm's that have cycled through the years, as technological aids to our needs and desires to communicate with fellows of like mind.

But caution that there is still a real world out there, and we must live out our lives in that world. Cyberspace is a brief escape or recreation from that world, not a substitute. It is not "get a life" so much as it is "live a life". If that means removing the detractions and abstractions, then so be it. It used to be that man was searching in the art and abstraction world a brief respite from the toil and drudgery of everyday life. Now we may be inverted, where we have to seek reality away from the abstraction of the unreal.

We still will wind up in the ashes of history, and our bodies committed to the earth from whence we came. If this cyber world feels immortal, it is only an illusion. Words can be immortal, but only if they are greater than we.

Kitco offers us the reality of gold and its everlasting permanence, but within the smooth and painless world of the web.

But at least there is the anchor to our thoughts to the cold hard reality of the metals. Every chip that processes our whims also contains gold. Billions of chips sounds like lots of gold to me.

Real is better until we become wisps as is this medium.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:38 - ID#28994)
So why do you want to ruin a good thing.
You are going to drive all the guns underground.
It is not good legislation, and it will not work.
The legislation appears to be made by high-rise condo owners who have never owned a gun.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:40 - ID#215235)
And thus began World War III
Keep your powder wet, lads. WW III, the REALLY Big One!, begins soon. Once the Euro is launched, a currency war will ensue throughout the world, causing great economic chaos. The ultimate winner will be the country, or economic union, that holds the most GOLD. Keep your powder wet with physical gold and gold stocks and when the Big One hits, you'll be the only one or your block - or community - who will emerge victorious. You might also buy some lead and something to deliver it at a high rate of speed as insurance. By the way, go GOLD!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:41 - ID#373284)
Never met Bart, I do like my tequila, and people that speak directly. I love to give
gold coins to children and adults alike. It would seem to me that beaten or thoroughly are good words to apply to gold on fact I believe that virtually every pathologist known to man, woman and perhaps even beast has performed an autopsy on the golden metal.

Perhaps you have an original thought that you would like to enlighten the world with on the subject of gold, silver, platinum or palladium?

An inebriated gulp of RESERVA to ya

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:45 - ID#72316)
I don't know about all you guys, but for most of my life I found it quite difficult ( to say the least ) to get my hands on that "FIAT" money....

I still spend the most productive part of my day in chase of it.. the last few years I have been lucky and caught some, but I still cannot forget how hard it was to get...


(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:46 - ID#28994)
Yes, I must agree with you on that one. American cops do watch too much television and really try to play the role. I don't think a movie can be made in the U.S. without a gun, siren, or flashing light. None the less, your Canadian gun legislation will not work.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:53 - ID#411259)
..... Sharefin .....

Nick -

Count the stars above and never number

Your blessings freely gifted to us all

From when first your voice appeared

( In the wee hours of the morn on my side of the ball )

You shared yourself, your family, and your heritage

And by doing so, made them all proud

I will very much miss your contributions, Mate

But your road is true and your vision clear

You know how to reach me

So please do from time to time

There are still stormy sea stories I yearn to hear

From you


(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:53 - ID#267298)
Help Again, on Golden Eagle
I am getting different quotes on Golden Eagle.

Does anyone know what it closed at today ?

Also, does this stock trade overnight ?

As you can see, I have a lot to learn.

TIA & Go Gold

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:54 - ID#300202)
Agreed_If it werks- Y tri to fix it. We r playing @ follow da Leader-
Clinton. Am unsure of legislation in the works but at the moment-only
restricted weapons need to be registered i.e. handguns, autos etc.
with no registration req'd fer rifles-only an FAC-Firearms Acquisition
Cert. which requires a 10 buck fee to be cleared by our Federal Police
Force. Same is presented to a rifle dealer in order to purchase ammo/
rifle. Ser. #'s not recorded.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:55 - ID#257136)
Sharefin: Your
It did however remind me of the fact I saw ETERNITY in my love's eyes on her 18th b'Day when I resolved to marry her if she'd have me.

That was 1954.

I'm gonna print and save and cherish your poem for that reason and a host of others. It'll give US something to talk about as we wait for the y2k debacle to cxome to a close and hopefully for a modicum of Freedom to be restored to our formerly great land..

To those who post re: E Gold.

I had a friend- long gone to the Gold Mine In the Sky- who founded a Co. named American Commodity and Barter Association.

It was eventually raided by the irsagents.

Over three millions of member's silver and gold was"confiscated".

He and his heirs recovered not a cent as nearly as I can recall.

Knowing as I do the irs, I am sure the individual agents in the raid filled their pockets and/or backpacks.

His name was John Grandbouche.

He and three others, of whom I was one, founded the National Tax Strike Association in Denver in 1976.

We all have paid our tuition as participants in the Freedom Fight!.

Dave in Co is aware, but he has been asked not to divulge particulars.

Squirrel: I remember posting a semi T-I-C piece re: MY paranoia. I mentioned the Hong Kong cops ol' b. j. has been authorized to "hire".

I also mentioned the fact of the Long Beach Port being open to the red chinese commies.

I put two and two ( 2&2 ) together. I'd prefer to be wrong in my surmises.

The reason I have brought it up was the Poo-pooing you gave it!

I've been lurking the past week or so and I note several seemingly serious posts along the same lines.

No t-i--c or poo-pooing.????

 Porque?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:57 - ID#257136)
Sharefin: I had earlier typed"Your Poem re: the countdown from five. I forgot the title
Hope this clarifies the earlier post above!

(Wed Jul 08 1998 22:58 - ID#72316)
@ Skinny
And your gun laws do?,,, IMHO, your gun laws demonstrate your lack of respect for life,,, something I think you accuse other nations of doing..


(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:05 - ID#223391)

Nice to see you 'round. Sorry about your friend. I have a friend who took 32 years to get back what the Feds took away. But then, you have to have both patience and resources. Not many with that many resources.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:07 - ID#300202)
Anyone hear bout a new agency/name change per IRS to National Tax
Collection Agency? Same name to be adopted by Revenue Canada.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:07 - ID#28994)
In Canada you are trying to get a farmer to register a 22 rifle.
Get real.......... your guns are going underground.
Downtown thinking is not going to work on this one.
The country boy is going to win.
And probably the opposition in the next election.
Do they have elections in Canada?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:09 - ID#411259)
..... Sharefin .....

After the smoke clears, maybe sometime about 2001, and the world has gone through its convulsions, and you are all the better for it by merit of your preparations, and nobody has any $ to buy gold, so I am out of work and desperate and most probably armed

Perhaps I could offer my services as an English butler

My services shant be expensive

And I shant drink all your liquor

Think about it


(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:11 - ID#255151)
Caper--A True Story

In my line of work, I meet the public. I met with two Canadians who were in from Toronto on a construction project. It was a hoot! They were astounded that I knew about Canadian junior Gold stocks and the TSE. We even talked about BRE-X, for cripe's sake! One of those guys was most uncomplimentary towards Bre-X, and expressed it very colorfully. BTW, I asked if they had ever heard of Bart Kitner. Sadly, they had not.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:11 - ID#57232)
Credit due to RJ
RJ: Thanks for coming to Ole's rescue. That is Kitco at its best.

All: Ravi Sarkar's age old economic cycle --

1 ) Acquisitor phase -- the acquisitor banker types slowly buy/acquire all assets, to the detriment of the ususally passive 'worker' types. The cooked frogs. I think this also includes creeping government, which is incidentally much worse in Germany, France and Japan than it is in the gold ole US of A. I cannot speak for other countries such as Australia, but I do know that Canada is more far along in this process than we are. I think it is Alberta that is a shining light for us all to admire. They last I heard were reversing the process of creeping government.

2 ) Worker phase -- eventually the workers tire of being slowly cooked and take over, either within the system by election, or by violent means. The workers quickly place in charge a 'warrior' type.

3 ) Warrior phase -- the new leaders -- the warriors -- take control and may induce sweeping change. Very good if the choice is good. Eg George Washington was asked if he wished to be king, but he fortunately refused. Others wished to be nearly absolute leaders - Julius Caesar, Napolean, Hitler, Stalin. The next eventual anti-christ type will be an absolute leader -- whether we realise it or not.

4 ) Intellectual ( builder ) phase -- I may have forgotten the precise name of this one. In this phase, under the ( hopefully benevolent ) warrior types, great works may be created, and wealth may be distributed among those who work hard to aquire it -- like the post depression era in the us when the Gini index was at its lowest in the US. But eventually the acquisitor phase creeps in.

5 ) Acquisitor phase ( the longest, I think ) -- and the cycle begins anew.

According to Ravi Sarkar, this general cycle has repeated itself numerous times since man first walked the earth. India has a rich human history, going back thousands of years, like China, and many of these cycles can be identified. As I recall, Ravi Sarkar ( now deceased ) was a remarkably positive individual with qualities very much like those of Mahatma Gandi. His approach was that the only way to break this vicious human cycle was to begin by understanding its existence. The most insidious is the aquisitor phase, as that is what eventually triggers civil unrest and revolution. From a practical standpoint that the Rothschilds must know very well, no civilization can exist for any lenght of time if all of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of one individual.

I am not promoting socialism or government enforcement to prevent the acquisitor phase -- I am promoting what is most accurately described these days in the US as libertarianism -- where government is minimal, just to make sure that the rules of fair play in free markets are maintained, and to take care of civil defense. Big business, big government, big labor -- where a few control the many is what we must avoid. Otherwise the acquisitor phase begins anew.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:13 - ID#411259)
..... PS .....

One last qualification for the job:

( I shan't offer any more )

They ARE calling me Limey

Has an English ring to it, yes?


(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:15 - ID#373403)
Huh? What happened to existentialism. Gagnrad, HELP!!!
UN: Many Not Registered at Birth

By Edith M. Lederer
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, July 8, 1998; 8:48 a.m. EDT

LONDON ( AP ) ..."Some 40 million children enter the world each year with no formal proof of their existence."

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:16 - ID#287186)
Y2K - time out for us to catch up with ourselves.

I feel sadness
and a sense of immense loss
and what we could have become
of what we could have attained.

Our technology has outstripped our maturity.
We need time to catch up.
To come to grips with ourselves.
We can not do so in this technological race.

Perhaps we shall soon enter not a dark age
but a new age of enlightenment.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:18 - ID#300202)
U don't understand Cdn culture. The only thing that may go underground
here is Viagra or heavy metal musac. We r sleepwalkers-Jerry wud say-
Sleepwalkers r gud aern't they George?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:22 - ID#287186)
RJ - I am sorry about the omission
In reposting even the few posts that I did I felt that I was using too much bandwidth, that a referral to the original dates & times would have been adequate. But since folks may be too harried to take the time to look I felt at least a few snippets were necessary.
Please accept my apologies.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:23 - ID#300202)
We r sooo British/New ZeaLANDISH/Austrailianish. Where did Merkns come
from??? Not meant to be confrontational but true. Back on subject-Go
Gold. Where's ROR????

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:25 - ID#28994)
Yes in some respects, there are far too many handguns in U.S.A. and are too easy to own.
However your past Prime Minister Trudeau signed a declaration , at the United Nations to have all guns removed from Canadian homes by the year 2002.
Thats what this legislation is about, Your Present Goverment is also Liberal.
Like I said before, you are no longer socialist, and you sure are not capitalist.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:27 - ID#244418)
Nuclear War and the Millenium Bug:

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:27 - ID#227238)
Squirrel @23:16: Now yer cookin'. ...... Right or wrong, I have harbored that same thought for a long time. It's time for some sober reflection on who, what and where we are, as well as; what's next? In short, a time for a renewal of perspective. ......... However, for whatever reason, these things are never pursued actively. They always seem to be thrust upon us.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:29 - ID#57232)
I doubt you will be sharefin's butler
RJ: If you become sharefin's butler, it will be because the acquisitor types confiscate your hard earned wealth. Good point about Jan 1 1999. That could very well be the eventual turning point when the CB's finally stop selling gold. I agree 100% with you that the acquisitor types have alot more gold to sell if they feel compelled to sell it to protect the paper currencies. But, on the other hand, the US dollar will not be allowed to rise much more -- so $280 gold will probably hold as the bottom -- unless the 'powers that be' lose control.

By the way, my equity investments in retailing are doing well during this current equities market rally. But, conservative person that I am, most of my liquid assets are in cash. Gold equities are looking better and better to me, but I am waiting for the commodities price index to bottom before making my prior mistake of prematurely calling a gold rally. Could happen within the next 6 months. Probably depends in part on how deflationary the current oil glut gets. And how long the US dollar rally lasts. Depends on Russia, Japan and South America too.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:31 - ID#72316)
@ Skinny
( Do they have elections in Canada? )

We even get a choice,

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:32 - ID#43460)
Theory versus fact:
I'm not much of a believer in living life by theory, which is why I started spending just a small percentage of income buying a little PM and saving it many years ago. The physical metal if one doesn't go overboard is a hard comforting fact. I buy a little and put it away and forget about it. IMHO

The same is true about weapons. Sadly one hears a lot about theory of this or that, but precious little fact. Fact: Tonight I went out to drop off a video for my wife. In the parking lot I met a young road warrior who apparantly didn't like my ( car/race/age/gender/attitude/parking spot, who knows? ) In theory he would rob or beat me up or I would pull out my Dirty Harry Special and blow him away reciting tough words. In fact I merely unholstered my ( licensed, registered, kosher ) weapon, briefly showing its existance but not brandishing it, all the time flashing him a kind but sad smile. With an embarrassed smile and a shrug he was gone into the night. End of story. True story. Scared the doo doo out of me. IMHO

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:33 - ID#411259)
..... JTF .....

I will accept the accolade on behalf of my company, but it was not I who assisted Ole. I never discuss the particulars or the identity of a crient in public. This even applies to Internet handles. I am trusting in Oles post here this evening as to his success at transferring his silver to my firm.

Perhaps some should consider, in this gathering-o-goldbugs, that I deal in the physical metal, not paper. We sell more precious metals to US and Canadian citizens than any other company in the world. We walk it like we talk it:

The Hard stuff

The stuff that shines

The stuff that make a satisfying THUD if a bar slips from your grasp and falls to the floor.

The REAL stuff.

A lot of folks hereabouts have chastised me because of my short term trading approach to these markets, and my willingness to sell gold into the dirt from whence it came if I sense weakness in a rally. I speak of these things because they are more fun. Trading the market can be fun. It will occasionally hand you your head but, for the most part, it is a fun way to spend the day. ( I guess the butler gig would be a bit too sedate ) . I rarely speak of delivery orders. Where is the excitement in some client buying a thousand onuses of gold for delivery? It happens. Frequently.

I do a tremendous amount of delivery business, which is the only way I recommend to trade gold - other than short. My company is facilitating the very goal most here espouse: Get out the word and get gold in the hands of the people.

Think of this when I get off on some bombastic tear about in-n-out trading. A lot of people prefer the slower road. This is a road I also travel..


(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:35 - ID#287186)
Ol - I am glad it turned out okay for you.
I had wondered.
Perhaps I had missed some posts.
Thanks again to all Kitcoites who rallied to his side.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:35 - ID#287186)
Ol - I am glad it turned out okay for you.
I had wondered.
Perhaps I had missed some posts.
Thanks again to all Kitcoites who rallied to his side.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:36 - ID#43460)
themissing link re existance
If a man is alone in the forest and speaks and there is no woman to hear him is he still wrong?

I wonder if all those non existant people don't own any gold?

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:36 - ID#300202)
Auric. In light of Shortened Long Island errr Elongated Short Island
& Hogtown ( Toronto ) Kitco Beer Bash or KBB, I hereby invite all
Cape Breton Kit Kats to attend my res/office 1 SEP 98 for CBBB. Ted-
Where r u????

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:37 - ID#72316)
Where's what's his handle, uh um,, the guy who livened this joint up a week ago, not tolerant 1, he was F*cking "A" , damned if I can remember his name... Farfel, that was it , YES

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:44 - ID#57232)
I value your good common sense in the precious metals markets
RJ: Your insight into the precious metals markets is appreciated here by all who are willing to step into the short term traders shoes. I am no trader, but I do know very well that the best advice on the trend comes from those who are equally at home in bear and bull markets. I always watch for your comments, those of Oldman, EB, D.A., APH, and cyclist, and others, even though I do not trade by them.

To be honest, I wish that more on this site would see this point, but it seems to be the nature of many gold bugs to be perpetually bullish. That is hard on the pocketbook. Those gold bugs who fail to accept bear gold markets would probably do better slowly acquiring phsyical gold, and avoiding the rest.

By the way, I agree with you that anonymity of clients -- and for that matter -- fellow kitcoites -- is for the best. Let the indiviual break the code of secrecy if they wish -- not others for them.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:44 - ID#244418)
Look for the White House to hold a press conference either next Monday or Tuesday on Y2K. Either Clinton or Gore, reportedly. Possibility of proposing or endorsing legislation that limits liability exposure, so companies can share info without the risk of lawsuits.
I listened to a talk show today about y2k. A caller said his local health food store merchant said he would be unable to fulfill his order for potassium iodide. ( It protects against damage to the thyroid from radiation caused by nuclear fallout ) The merchant told him that the stuff
was hard to come by since state governments had been told or urged by the
feds to buy and stockpile it, in case y2k resulted in serious nuke plant
p.s. Mozel please come back.

Dave in CO
(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:45 - ID#229103)
fighting for freedom
Doubt that many of us would "walk the walk" as a.j. did.

skinny: you said, "The legislation appears to be made by high-rise condo owners who have never owned a gun." Our esteemed limo-libs are doing their best to disarm the great-unwashed but the laws won't affect their ability to defend themselves; e.g., Sen. Feinstein ( D-CA ) carried/carries a concealed .38, and Sen. Rockefeller ( D-WV ) has an AR-15 in his D.C. condo.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:58 - ID#57232)
Thanks for the reminder
gagnrad: Appreciate your comments, as someone who has not bothered to buy a gun. My guess is that it has less value under the sofa or in the glove compartment. You must be wearing it, and be willing to use it if necessary.

I have had a few confrontations when I lived near a big city, and know full well that reasons for a confrontation can be created at the drop of a hat. Part of the reason that I drive old ( but internally new ) vehicles. And why I do not flaunt what I have. Good approach at work also if you have people that work for you.

I have also learned something else over the years. The real survivalists will be ones that are willing to work with others, not the loaners. It is hard to protect your homestead from 'invaders' if your defense consists of you only. One wagon cannot circle.

And -- government confiscation of weapons is not practical in rural areas. The government types will be occupied in the big cities if we do have civil unrest, and rural areas will be fending for themselves -- mostly.

(Wed Jul 08 1998 23:59 - ID#373284)
Dave in CO, Namaste'
Exactly right, they pass laws limiting the people, but, lo and behold, what is this a gun...hypocrites they are for sure.