Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:02 - ID#207145)
The market always tops first and heads down, followed by the economy, as the market discounts the slowdown. There will be no slowdown. This economy will pick up steam in the 4th quarter!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:04 - ID#207145)
Intrest rates will rise, not go down,
4th quarter, if rates are low, there will be a pickup in the economy forcing rising rates, thus a recession in 1999-2000.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:09 - ID#207145)
The Crowd is usually wrong
at market turning points. Everybody is thinking deflation. Forget it.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:11 - ID#207145)
Core rate up .02, CRB in the toilet
And we still have inflation. What would happen if CRB was at a 5 year average?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:18 - ID#207145)
Deflation is history. Next is inflation...
CRB cannot stay this low for that much longer. I'm going to bed. I love being a contrarian, especially when it makes so much sense. I leave you with this: AG might wait till after the elections to raise rates. Watch Oil as we get into a bitter winter.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:25 - ID#195260)
EB - here is the candlestick page I talked about.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:34 - ID#284255)
That was not my comment but one from Avid.
I have basically no money in, at all, in anything.
Except long term bank put warrants.
I expect they will be worth their weight in gold.
( Not much because there are paper ) ( :- ) ) )

I am not sure of the ability of Japan to rise, or gold to rise,
Or the US and global markets to tank.
At least at this moment in time.
Many events seems to be poised.

Change will come soon.
We are nearly there.

But at the moment much risk is entering the arena.

CIA World Factbook:

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:36 - ID#341214)
John B__A: Making RJ's text more readable in a flash
John: Try this with your browser at RJ's site. Right click on the text and click the select all option. I get a more eye pleasing white on blue in my browser when I do that.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:45 - ID#263254)
You stated: "Not too sure I agree that gold is risk-free -- I just called the neighbor to tell him that; he invited me to come over and look at his fistfull of K-rands again bot at 685/ much for buy and hold"....

Your friend bought when gold was flying out the door...a mistake that could be made by any of us. It's not the end of the world.
You stated: "I've got another problem or two philosophically with some recent postings that I don't fully understand. Perhaps the authors of a couple of postings regarding their current disfavor for gold but leaning towards silver being a decent buy can advise. In the same and previous postings, reference is made to the usefulness of precious metal during crisis as a medium of exchange when paper fails, as a ticket away from the action to safer ground, as a barter tool for human necessities, etc....How do these people see themselves running across the tarmac to catch the plane to Geneva with $25 grand worth of silver. How about a hundred grand? Those of you prone to calculate can figure the weight and how many trips from the terminal it would take -- would it fit under your seat? Can your wife carry 5-600 pounds as her part? Or will you just leave her there to guard it while you guard your rear with your AK-47?....
First of all, precious metals cannot be "guaranteed" as an "exchange medium" under any circumstances. It has to happen under governmental direction, civil duress without government intervention or black market. Precious metals holdings should be considered 'wealth retention assets' for the long term. Absolutely NO ONE can say for certain how same will be assessed AND OR accepted directly after TEOTWAWKI.

By the time you feel the need to "run out of town", hundreds upon thousands of other folks will have the same idea. If you do not like where you are at right now in terms of security, functionality, etc., no better time than the present to make the change....
You stated: "But the same persons wish not to so much buy the physical silver but to buy options or futures contracts, as you also have suggested, and then speak ill of paper having no value. An option or a futures contract IS paper -- only the right to buy the physical ( or sell, of course in the case of a put ) . If the trade goes their way, they in no way intend to take delivery, rather to take the profit on the paper contract. I do not understand."

It is what it is. A means to make a profit on, or hedge against current holdings of same. The infrastructure to collect actual physical is not in place.

You have to know what you are doing here. May I suggest you spend your time learning to care for yourself and your family post y2k, including the purchase of gold/silver. Of course, there may be others who could walk you through the process of futures purchases.. that is entirely up to you.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 00:52 - ID#237264)

Most currencies are down against the dollar, simularly these fallen currencies are down against gold.
What happens if the dollar tanks?
Do you think the gold will tank along with the dollar? Why?
What currency will be strongest assuming the dollar tanks.
Soorie fer al'dem qeestens cause ihm stoopid.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:06 - ID#287186)
I guess Sharefin, others, and I have been overly optimistic on Y2K
A realization was brought to my attention by a Y2K doubter.
She asked "If they can fix the problems in 18 months,
then how can they get everything working in one year
after January 1st of 2000?
The answer should have been obvious to us all.
Of course they can not get everything back up in a year.
Maybe basic services to scattered high-priority locations.
But the whole range of technology and infrastructure that we are accustomed to can't possibly be back up in less than five years
- even in good conditions with cash flow and resources to draw on.
During anarchy and chaos repair efforts will be much more difficult.
Ten years of very well packed food and other supplies may be necessary.
Remember the Depression lasted YEARS and really didn't end until WWII.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:20 - ID#386245)
G'day Bingo
Just came in from a long day out and came across your post re: safety, portability of silver etc.

I am reminded of a post someone made here at least a year ago on the subject of cut and run. This guy was very worried about the situation in the US? and scoured the world to find a safe haven. After much study he settled on a spot that was so out of the way it just HAD to be a haven. People there spoke english, had a high standard of living and a good agricultural base to provide food in any emergency. It was an island paradise far away from the world's troubles. He packed up his family and moved there.

The location and time??
Falkland Islands ( Malvinas ) --just before the war between the UK and Argentina!!!

Out of the frying pan and...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:27 - ID#287186)
oops - too much Southern Comfort while typing
The Y2K doubter asked "If the CAN'T fix the problems in 18 months, then how can the fix them in one year..."
Maybe TEN years of supplies would be prudent. All my cases of canned stuff for the first few years and very well packed long term stuff for later.
Sheesh - this is getting worse with each snifter of Golden Comfort!

Hmmm this hasn't posted yet. I'm still waiting.
I really don't want to hit the submit button again.
Okay - here goes ( beware of seeing double )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:36 - ID#386245)
G'day squirrel.
Those lampposts still after you, mate?
Speaking of gold--hope you have laid in a ten year supply of Southern Comfort? Would probably be worth MORE than gold in a crisis. If noone wants to trade for it, you'll just have to bite the bullet and consume it yourself. What a way to go!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:44 - ID#386245)
My previous post was only partly...
...tongue in cheek. For you Calamity Janes and Johns out there, some thought should go into what would make good trade items in a widespread goods shortage. Along with the obvious salt, soap, toothpaste, long-life food, water purifiers etc. should go BOOZE!! Small bottles of bourbon, scotch, gin, vodka, tequila etc. would be extremely hot items and literally worth their weight in gold as trade items. The good part is that they have an extremely long shelf life and if Calamity J. never comes--then the best part--DRINK 'EM YOURSELF!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:48 - ID#285121)
20% market correction ????????????
With mutual fund cash reserves under 4% how could the margin possibly be covered?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 01:51 - ID#285121)
Nick / Old hollow tree bout a hundred yards from me.
In Tennessee where theres corn, sugar, and yeast, theres boose : )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:08 - ID#287186)
I'll drink to that!
Flasks or 750ml bottles would be great trade items.
But maybe stock large bottles and open a corner bar.
Selling by the shotglass would be lucrative.
But it would also draw flies.
Maybe the liquor could be used as bait.
Then Grizz could pick off the flies to improve his aim.

Other great trade items with long shelf lives.
Ground pepper - black, red and chili.
Garlic, onion, celery - diced, flakes, powders, etc.
Various extracts - almond, mint, peppermint, vanilla, etc.
Cocoa ( dry cans ) . Sugar, milk, vanilla & cocoa = fudge!
Add some flour for brownies. Then set up a candy store!
After months of beans folks would kill for chocolate!
Brown sugar or molasses to spruce up the beans.
Kool Aid, aka, "bug juice" cuz Pepsi may be hard to come by.

Lots and lots of Sudafed or its generic equivalent.
For folks ( like me ) with allergies to wheat, etc.
Aspirin, acetominophen, ibuprofen, etc.
Folks with headaches could be very cantankerous!
Especially if you sold 'em the whiskey that caused 'em!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:31 - ID#207145)
Deflation not our problem,
Intrest rates will be going up sooner rather than later, more rather than less. Goldilocks is about to be molested by about six mean bear-types, three we knew about, the other three might or may not be surprises. Trouble for Goldilocks, what a bummer.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:41 - ID#207145)
Britain and US correlate,
Britain has raised rates 6 times and still it will not slow enough. They are about to raise for the 7th time. Goldilocks, yeah, right. 3rd quarter not much to write home about, but the 4th quarter, well we'll be smokin. Uh oh! The imponderable reveals it'self,;rates must go up. Low rates breed a great economy which leads to higher rates. What happens to the NEW PARADIGM?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:44 - ID#207145)
2nd mortgages on homes.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:45 - ID#255284)
Sounds like my kind of paaaaaaaper

"When the banks were printing their own private notes ( c. 1813 ) there were many that bore attractive designs, but perhaps some of the most interesting bank notes ever seen in Britain were those printed by the Bank of the Black Sheep -- as it came to be know -- in west Wales. The Bank issued notes for 1, 2 and 10s. On the 1 note there was the picture of one black ewe, the 2 note bore two back ewes and a black lamb was portrayed on the 10s note. Most of the folk who handled the notes were illiterate, and this enabled them to tell the difference in value.

JP Jones, The Story of Money

( can anyone find an image online? )

Now, maybe, if Korea can mint gold pigs, NZ can mint gold sheep.

What do ewe think?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:48 - ID#207145)
Very good.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:50 - ID#207145)
Scottish sheppards wear kilts
cause a sheep can hear a zipper a mile away.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 02:51 - ID#284173)

Sorry I took a long time to answer your questions. Been for a walk in the bush with the missus.

In ans to your questions:

1 ) certificates are guaranteed by the Western Australian government.
2 ) here's a cut-and-paste.......Welcome to the new Perth Mint web site. The historic Perth Mint, established in 1899, is the precious metals production and minting division of Gold Corporation. Gold Corporation was
established by act of parliament in 1987 and is owned and guaranteed by the Government of Western Australia........
3 ) fabrication costs sorry don't have the info but the web site is or

Happy hunting!!!


(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:00 - ID#207145)
20-25% corrections are normal, healthy and we need one in the worst way. Who cares how people on margin cover them. They get covered the hard way. Bring it on. ( fourth quarter ) .

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:02 - ID#207145)
Sheep, investors

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:04 - ID#393224)
Gold and Calamity J.
How many of you have given thought to just WHAT you will do with your gold in the Calamity Scenario. I have.

The average Joe Blow storekeeper/farmer or others with supplies of things you want will not have the background to accept your gold for his goods. You will have to look elsewhere to trade your gold for survival goods. Don't expect to go to your local coin shop. They will be ransacked in the first week of trouble. Here are some suggestions.

Chinese/Oriental stores, shops, restaurants. If closed, you will have to find the owners. They will trade bags of rice etc. for gold bars/coins.

People from the Middle East/South Asia have a history and knowledge of trade with gold. Find a Lebanese or Indian shop. They will appreiate your 'trade goods'.

Europeans have a long history of using gold in survival situations.

Jewellery stores--if any are still left. Problem is they have the same goods as you do and may be just as hungry.

One caveat: especially in countries where people are heavily armed.
Carry small quantities only. Do not put yourself in a situation where you may get 'blown away' for your trade goods. I don't mean you should drive up in a Sherman tank with all your relatives holding AK-47s. Just use common sense and a little finesse. A little forethought and perhaps making some contacts BEFORE the situation arises would go a long way.
Then just hope Calamity Jane never visits and that you will sell your gold for $3000 oz. in your old age. If your relatives are worthy--pass it on to them. If not, spend the lot ( a favourite charity? ) and go out in a blaze of glory.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:05 - ID#207145)
US Japaneese BUBBLE.
Our own bubble. How quaint.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:07 - ID#393224)
Have any of you noticed...
...that Auracious has made no further mention of the Bledisloe Cup ( Rugby match between the All Blacks-NZ and Wallabies-Oz ) ?? Wonder why??

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:08 - ID#207145)
if the fecies hits the rotating oscellator
Pinto beans might do just fine.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:11 - ID#207145)
Take it from here Aussies
II'm hittin the hay, and leaving it in good hands.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:43 - ID#284255)
Stockpiling threat looms over Millennium

It's not going to be that bad.
But that depends on where you are.
There are myriads of places you could go where Y2k effect would be minimal.
I will be in one of these places and enjoying life muchly.
Lots of port to ease one's fear around the campfire at night.
At least that will be my excuse.
As the say, "Any post in a storm."

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:50 - ID#255284)
achually, Nickontopofmy@shoulders, I thought the Stralians played a fantastic game. A good win for Stralia, but then they've not won a test against NZ since 94 ---- I'm jes darn lucky noone took me up on my wager.

Next game Stralia vs S. Africa in Perth.

I concur about gold in a crisis. Keep it hidden. Hang it, that's what paper is for, and if you've got paper you can buy heaps of groceries ( assuming it's not all looted ) and gold from the people who have gold and no cash.

I'm gonna looke out for notes with cutes black sheeps on 'em they've gotta be worth a fortune over here post-armageddon.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 03:50 - ID#284255)
Must be to quiet here...
Dreams are but idle wonderment
Hopes though beautiful are vain
Until the careful skillful hand
Fleshes the deep vision from the brain
And certain, shapes the dream

It is the substance of our faith
Transforms the visioned thing
It is our own enduring love
Transmutes the unsubstantial dream
Into the firm fleshed reality of being

Such dreams, such visions
And such radiant hopes;
They need our faith; our love,
And hands most caring skill
To bring them into being
Fuse them with life, and make them
So real -- so beautiful


The skies are everlasting wonder
Beauty in every thunderhead
Climbing so swiftly
Against the steadfast sun
Storm cloud, purple and black
Heavy with rain
Stinging with hail. The great winds
Sweeping and directing

The savage energies of lighting
Electric powers and fire
The growling Thunder roll

Yet the same storm
Energies now spent
Covers the high hills
With the white purity of snow
Magical, blue shadowed
Smooth contoured, Silent
And so beautiful

And the same steadfast sun
Bright over all

And the still voice demands
"Hast thou girded the heavens
Weighed the winds, or know
The secrets of the waters,
The treasures of the hail
Or of the snow?"

Humbled, I said
"I know that all things
Are the work of thy hands
Thou art dreamer
And fond dreaming
Beyond understanding

Dust though my body be
And thou unseen but clearly known
I worship Thee."

Back to the paint brush...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:20 - ID#255151)
Banks Runs and Gold

Some Kitco poster ( Aragorn III? ) made the point about a panic out of electronic money and into real stuff if bank runs occur. Such stuff would include cars, houses, food, vacations, computers, and Gold. In other words, spend it before you lose it. My guess is that we'll see a spending frenzy over the next 12 months, such as we have never seen before.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:38 - ID#393224)
There are tv ads running... I speak, about the 538 days left before the millenium bug hits. Our local newspaper is advertising it's Y2K special out tomorrow.

The ignorant masses shall be awakening soon.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:39 - ID#269207)
@ sharefin,,,, well it certainly isn't anymore........
and so my day ends..... with an almighty... roar.......: ) ) ) )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:51 - ID#230376)
Golly ..gosh ..gee whiz.........

I find it hard to believe that some of you are more paranoid about Y2K than me,but it's true. Most important in my mind is the power grid. We thought it was bad last winter when our wonderful, kind ,and generous power company...Communist Edison....whos' motto is "Let em' freeze in the dark."....lost our electricity for a day. Damn, it got cold in the house,and because we were 'All Electric" nothing worked. Thanks to a well placed fireplace, we had some heat. Well, that was before I really took Y2K seriously. Things have changed considerably , here , since then, as I'm sure you blokes in the Noreast, with THE ice storm have changed things,also.
Heck...we,or most of us lived our lives before computers took over our lives. Life goes on and so will we !
Be Prepared........Buy a Boy Scout hand book.. lots of good survival stuff in there....Amazon dot com.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:55 - ID#233199)
@Squirrel - Re: trade goods
Don't forget to pick up a few boxes of those small packets fo salt form McDonald's or Bugger King

(Sun Jul 12 1998 04:56 - ID#230376)
Shucks and Oh Boy........

I forgot to say, "Go Gold"........good day, from the chilly Midwest....bbl

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:20 - ID#26793)
Appears that North Korea ready to make a "major" announcement.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:27 - ID#26793)
IMF-Russia agree on 11 billion loan; western banks kick in additional 10 billion

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:28 - ID#255151)
Disturbing Article About Russia

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:32 - ID#26793)
Pakistan about to default on $30 billion of debt.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:39 - ID#255151)

G'day fellow Heartlander. I am finding very few Hoosiers taking Y2K seriously. I mostly get nowhere, even with very mild warnings. They think I'm a little eccentric anyway. Can't figure out why they think that. Hmm, could be because I told them I buried some Gold. Well Hell, I thought everybody did that!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:41 - ID#26793)
Indonesia issues "high alert" for volcano in its most densly populated area.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 05:59 - ID#255151)

The SE Asian flu has spread to Pakistan and Russia. Any guesses about the N.Korean announcement?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 06:01 - ID#207252)
July Rally?
Does anyone know what happened to the July rally in gold? Some of you were recommending selling the upticks and being out by the 23rd. Did I miss the rally?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 06:06 - ID#255151)

The Major Announcement will be at 08:00 GMT. That's good. Now, when the heck is 08:00 GMT? In KST ( Kitco Standard Time )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 06:28 - ID#359316)
Time Check
The time now [derived from a radio time signal in Germany] is
11:35:00 British Summer Time [BST]
Subtract one hour for GMT

(Sun Jul 12 1998 06:57 - ID#253246)
Bill2j *******July ralley of the unknown year


The so called precoius metals experts like Dines, Blanchard , Doody,&
Veneroso don't know any more about PM stocks than you do. Dines
said Silver Standard hit bottom at $3.50 its now at $2.00. Canyon
Resources is trading at 0.38 cents, TVX under $3.00.

The only PM stock that I own that is in the green for the 1998 is
Pan American Silver, other tha that stock everything else I own
in the PM sector is off 40 -50%. I'm just glad I didn't spend $8000
for the Fax service to help me lose more money.

Barrick seems to make most of its aquisitions in the July - august
time frame so maybe this will get the pm stocks moving

(Sun Jul 12 1998 07:08 - ID#284255)
Robert Rubin is abondoning the ship!
Saturday July 11, 10:53 am Eastern Time
New York Times reports Rubin may leave his post
WASHINGTON, July 11 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's
closest confidants say he will decide within the next few months whether
to leave the Clinton administration, the New York Times reported on
Saturday. Pulling together what it frankly acknowledges as rumors that
the secretary will leave, the Times said that they differ from rumors of
the past in that they are ``emanating from some of the secretary's
Cabinet colleagues.'' It quotes several of these colleagues, none of
them identified.
``He wanted to go months ago but he couldn't resign while Asia was
coming unhinged,'' one is quoted as saying.
``The week after the midterm elections'' in November of this year is
when he will leave or announce plans to leave, another is quoted as
saying. And a third said it is widely assumed that Rubin will leave,
although no one had heard from him directly.
``His closest confidants say Mr. Rubin will decide in the next few
months, perhaps while fly fishing this summer,'' whether to retain his
job or leave,`` the story said.
The piece reports that midlevel Treasury officials are already
handicapping chances for successors, such as Rubin's deputy, Lawrence
Summers; James Johnson, the departing head of Fannie Mae; and Franklin
Raines, who resigned as director of the Office of Management and Budget
to succeed Johnson as head of Fannie Mae.
But Rubin himself has revealed little. The Times quotes him as saying:
``There are a lot of important and interesting
issues I'd like to be involved in going forward. On the other hand,
there are countervailing considerations.''
He also said: ``I'll do what seems to be appropriate and not do what
doesn't seem appropriate.''
The piece also weighs the chances that he could be persuaded to stay by
a combination of presidential arm twisting and fears that markets could
be adversely affected.
It counterbalances that speculation by noting that Rubin has had some
major frustrations in his job recently.
Federal judges have turned down the Treasury Department's efforts to
create a ``protective function privilege'' for its
Secret Service officers who protect the president, to prevent them from
testifying before Kenneth Starr's grand jury on what they may have seen
between Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.
And, the paper said, Rubin opposed a bill overhauling the Internal
Revenue Service until it became clear that the measure would pass. Then
he altered his position. And finally, Rubin has been unable to convince
Congress to contribute to the International Monetary Fund at a level
he considers necessary to fight against economic problems in Asia,
Russia and Latin America.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 07:25 - ID#300202)
On his African trip-Fox News-Rubin says he is staying

(Sun Jul 12 1998 07:31 - ID#373284)
could not help myself...tried...but couldn't do it......................

Mr. Mick
(Sun Jul 12 1998 07:48 - ID#345321)
Rubin to stay "for a while"..............................
Sunday July 12, 12:24 am Eastern Time

Treasury's Rubin says "will be here for a while"

ABIDJAN, July 12 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, responding to an article in
Saturday's edition of the New York Times, said on Saturday he had no plans to quit.

``I have always said... the same thing, which is that I am going to focus on what I am doing. I am
going to be here for a while and that is it,'' Rubin told reporters travelling with him on a five-country
tour of Africa.

The New York Times had quoted administration sources as saying Rubin wanted to leave by the
end of the year. The paper said Rubin was fed up with the commute between Washington and New
York and that he no longer fully enjoyed his job.

Rubin, a former Wall Street financier, was appointed Treasury Secretary in January 1995, in the
middle of Mexico's financial crisis.

He masterminded what was then a record-breaking $36 billion rescue package for Mexico with
contributions from the United States and international lenders.

His team has also played a key role in Asia's financial crisis, shuttling between the troubled countries
and helping to arrange packages of loans which make the Mexico rescue deal seem small.

South Korea, the world's 11th biggest economy before the collapse of the won currency made the
figures meaningless, is receiving money from a $57 billion rescue deal, including a massive $21 billion
from the International Monetary Fund.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 07:53 - ID#373284)
scroll down on this page...dynamite Y2K information...excellent

(Sun Jul 12 1998 08:00 - ID#29048)
Japan's LDP forecast to suffer major election defeat

Tonight's markets should be very interesting.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 08:17 - ID#29048)
Bloomberg headlines....>

Dollar Seen Gaining Against Yen After Parliamentary Elections In Japan

Japanese Stocks Seen Falling As Ruling Party Struggles To Hold On To Seats

(Sun Jul 12 1998 08:19 - ID#300202)
Staying/Going/Here for awhile. Where r the News Police?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 08:30 - ID#286230)
Internet providers on defensive after Philip

(Sun Jul 12 1998 08:42 - ID#257136)
Mountain Williams or High altitude Hillbillies!
As a native Coloradan, I find myself snickering at the grandiose preparations spoken of by some who reside in the Mountains of Summit County,
When and if it is all over and I surviVe, I'll take a trip to the high country where not even spinach or celery or potatoes will grow and make enquiry as to how the prepared ones fared during the"The Troubles".

Smoke smells and can be sniffed and seen for many a mile. iF i CAN SEE OR SMELL IT , SO CAN OTHERS.....

Even a mine entry can be closed down readily.Been there and DONE IT!

It is glorious to contemplate the joys of Livin' off the land-pine bark, an occasional trout when the water's open and above all, the carmaraderie of the contrarian in close proximity to other contrarians.
Talk about rats in a Skinner Box, and big city indiffe4rence!

There wil be established new parameters for inhuman behavior, particularly the first time one of the Gentle ones like ol Mtn Bear or Grizz gets constipated and/or horny at the same time.

God help the women and kids as well as the theoreticians.

If one is seriously contemplating a return to nature, one could find a much more salubrious climate in which to do it.

Almost anywhere East of the Rockies.

I personally will stay in my humble abode in Arkansas, but I know of places which will provide the amenities sooner than most everywhere else.

In fact, the amenities may not even be interrupted at all.
Amenities being utilities-water, gas and electricity,EH? DaveinCO??

I have wintered in the Coffee Pot Springs area and in the area above Craig, and also in Kremmling and Aspen and West of Crested Butte.

I can say this; if you have an imaginative turn, have at it!!
As for me and mine, there are better places. Where it raINS AND GARDENS CAN GROW FOR 240 DAYS A YEAR.
I say DREAM ON!!!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:02 - ID#373284)
Y2K links list...and it's growing>

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:25 - ID#29048)
Japan PM Hashimoto to quit soon--Kyodo

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:37 - ID#288369)
@join me there, someday..........
Away from the uneasiness of the crowded realm known as "intelligence" lies a vast wasteness called stoopidity ( "stoopid",copyright teddO ) . It is in this near and far away place that I will now dwell. Pull up a rocker....and we shall do what we do best, rock. GO GOLDBUGS!!!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:39 - ID#412286)
Everyone who posts here seems to be from the US, South Africa, Australia or Canada. This is understandable as this is an english language sight. How come we never hear from the British Isles or Ireland? Any comments.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:44 - ID#251166)
ALL re. Japan
Whoa, Hashimoto's out. How's the yen going to react?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:47 - ID#255151)

This is interesting. From April 1996, three senior officials from Treasury, SSA, and Defense testify on Y2K.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:48 - ID#254112)
@ROR: Interesting question.
But I come from Germany. I live in America only sice 10 years. I still see things through European sun glasses. ( i.e., we are not "socialist countries"; we just have some elements of "social welfare" built into our social and economic systms. All the former West-European countries are essentially capitalistic countries. But I admit, there are big differences between European countries and USA in moree than one aspect. )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:50 - ID#432221)
Does anyone know who Hashimoto's likely successor may be
and how he might hasdle the fiscals?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:53 - ID#37292)
Well said, a.j.....
But let's you and me not tell too many what a joy we have where we are and just let them stay in their hidey hole at 9000 feet digging grubworms for breakfast. I personally enjoy going to the A & P to pick out the lettuce and trading clad junk ugly coins for it. Off to the tennis court for my morning workout...what a life.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 09:53 - ID#412286)
Social elements are much more pervasive in Europe and Asia. Our offset is a greater degree of litigation here.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 10:01 - ID#426220)

"Everyday it seems I hear another cockamamie myth about mutual funds and the bull market." J. Irving Weiss, SAFE MONEY REPORT ( Palm Beach Gardens, Florida ) . Following is VERBATIM!

In view of the extremely precarious market conditions, as accurately described by many market mavens, I felt compelled to post pertinent information from an article published in one of the best market newsletters in the country - SAFE MONEY REPORT. No quotation marks will be used as the following are verbatim excerpts.


The most absurd myth of all is the one dished out by the mutual funds themselves - the idea that "mutual fund investors don't get hurt as badly in a crash."

But take a look at what happened back in 1929. The funds ( called "investment trusts" ) were absolutely devastated:

Mutual Fund Crash Declines From 1929 peak

.....FUND..................To 1929 Low.......To 1932 Low

Goldman Sachs.................-98%...............-99%


United Corporate..............-75%...............-97%

United Founders...............-67%..............Bankrupt

Lehman Corporate..............-44%...............-77%

But look at what happened to those poor investors! At the low in 1929, they were virtually wiped out -- down to 3 cents on the dollar. Even if you bought the fund after the crash, you would have lost half of your money by the time the market hit rock bottom in 1932.

So, don't believe these myths you're hearing about mutual funds.

Don't delude yourself into a false sense of security. The stock Bubble is about to burst. Moreover, the Y2K situation portends to be a problem fostering the growth of public panic - which may well be the Mother of All Bear Markets.

When early reports herald forthcoming natural disasters like flood, hurricane, tornado, prudent men will prepare to protect their families and possessions. They will stock up on provisions, stockpile sandbags, cover windows, seek shelter, practice emergeny drills, increase the amount of insurance coverage etc etc. Therefore, prudent and intelligent men will become more cautious and prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.

Indeed it is a time to pull in our horns and establish a defensive investment posture.

The following "weather" reports MUST be carefully monitored to be able to see the looming dark clouds gathering on Western horizons because the Far-East is presently in the eye of the storm.

Ignoring the "weather" reports exposes family and possessions to possible irreparable damage. Why take the chance!

Remember to delete the extra "en" letters in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Sun Jul 12 1998 10:07 - ID#301318)
Sunday Morning Stuff
INDIA: Communal amity boosting gold business in Kerala town ( ANI )

KODUVALLY: Koduvally, a small town in Kerala, is attracting customers from far and wide because of its reputation for dexterity and fair practice in the gold trade. ``People come to Koduvally from all parts of the
state because the gold transaction here is very fair and honest,'' said
Abdul Khader, owner of a jewellery shop.

The gold traders do brisk business even without resorting to any hard selling. They keep stock of the latest designs and trends with reasonable price tags which holds them in good stead.

In fact, the gold merchants of Koduvally are skilled in moulding even the most difficult of designs and redoing antiquated gold ornaments.

Another strong feature of the place is the close amity that exists between different religious communities who know they must work together to survive.

The gold traders in Koduvally are Muslims but the goldsmiths are Hindus. In Koduvally, which does not even have a cinema hall or a proper eating joint, there are over 100 jewellery shops.

Most of the goldsmiths known as `thatans' in the local language are Gulf
returnees. There are about 1,000 thatans who turn out ornaments to suit all tastes.

Till the early 80s there were just 15 jewellery shops in Koduvally. With the flooding of Gulf money, demand and supply of gold has shot up. As a result, a large number of shops have been set up.

Although the Gulf boom in the 80s and the 90s fuelled the growth of jewellery shops, Koduvally's attraction as a gold town dates back to the 1890s.

Abdul Khader claims that shops in Koduvally only sell 24-carat pure gold and customer satisfaction is the primary aim of the trade. He said honesty and skill is the secret behind the soaring gold business in the area.

But in spite of their thriving business the gold merchants are not without their share of problems. The traders in Koduvally pay 4 per cent tax as revenue to the government, double than what other states pay.

``If the Government reduces the tax to 2 per cent instead of the existing 4 per cent then 100 per cent billing can be done,'' said K Surendran, Secretary, Gold Merchant's Association of Koduvally.

He said although NRIs ( Non-resident Indians ) who have been allowed to bring 10 kgs of gold, brought a spurt in gold sales but unless the tax on it is reduced, the government may not get better revenue. It has to be made cheaper for higher returns.

Gold merchants say the Government is out to squeeze maximum profit out of the trade at their expense, an attitude which must change.

Yet, the gold merchants eagerly await the entry of more jewellery to Koduvally. It does not affect the business of the existing shops. It only enhances the reputation of Koduvally as the gold town of India.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 10:49 - ID#43460)
skinny re 22:57
Thanks. But you do see my point that in times of stress nations will fall back on gold if for no other reason than for nations in a pinch it will buy weapons when nothing else will. IMHO this is a major goldbug fundamentalist talking point. Nations which forget this will disappear like the Dark Age Saxons who tried to pay off the Vikings with Danegelt or the Aztecs who tried to buy freedom from the Spanish. They should have bought mercinaries instead. IMHO

Let me give you an URL which, if you can make it work, should make you weep openly with tears of sheer admiration for the guy who wrote the speeches ( and coincidentally had authorized spending to buy the weapons just a year or two earlier ) . Plus another site describing the Battle of Britain. But remember that behind it all was currency backed with gold and the determination to spend it on what was needed! IMHO

Winston Churchill's recorded wartime speeches. No kidding!

Historical site:

(Sun Jul 12 1998 10:50 - ID#300202)
European Military Union????
Anyone have a url per European Business Week if on the WWW? Apparantly
front cover alludes to European Military Union. Picture of European
soldier c/w rifle.
Pretty site at shows Euro symbol in Gold/Silver.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 10:52 - ID#43460)
editorial comment on my last post
Winnie wan't PM obviously before his party was elected but he'd been instrumental the late prewar years as a member of the loyal opposition in parliment.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:02 - ID#413109)
Hey y'all
I'm a comin, and I'm a hopin
that some of you in the area will join your Kitco bros
to a little festive get-together in Toronto on Thurs eve.
30th July 1998 at 7 pm,
where you ask?.... why just contact
fellow arranger, but not a stranger -MOONEY, no not money-
but a relative no doubt @ the fol email-
This is directed at Bart Kitner and Bully Beef, and many others too.
Looking forward to putting faces where only handles existed.

Rising Sun
(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:09 - ID#411331)
@ gagnrad

Thanks for the churchill link. This great person does not get the credit he deserves. He gives me the sense that we are living in unheroic times.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:17 - ID#242325)
Smart Money Buying Japan?

Saturday, July 11, 1998
Volume 3 No:724 Issued: 10:00 a.m. JST

Govt To Impose Higher Recycling Fees For Reconstruction, Renovation Projects
Foreign Presence In Japanese Stock Market Hits Record Level
Govt To Build Database Of Women Candidates For Ministry Panels
Toyota To Build UK Corolla With Peugeot Diesel Engine
Upper House Majority Likely To Elude LDP In Sunday Election

Govt To Impose Higher Recycling Fees For
Reconstruction, Renovation Projects
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Starting in fiscal 1999, the Construction Ministry will make individuals
and private companies wanting to renovate or rebuild commercial buildings, condominiums
and single-family homes pay a greater percentage of the cost of recycling waste construction
materials, ministry sources said Friday.

Those reconstructing a single-family home, for example, would be charged 1.5 million yen
for recycling on average, up 600,000 yen from present levels. The ministry plans to
introduce low-interest loans by Housing Loan Corp. and other measures to help relieve the
added burden.

The new regulations will require individuals and companies to report to their respective local
government authorities their reconstruction plans.

About 82 million tons of construction materials are thrown away in Japan every year,
accounting for some 20% of total industrial waste.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )

Foreign Presence In Japanese Stock Market Hits
Record Level
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Foreign investors and Japanese pension funds expanded their holdings of
Japanese equities to record-high percentages of total market capitalization in fiscal 1997,
according to figures released Friday by the National Conference of Stock Exchanges.

The percentage of listed Japanese shares in the hands of Japanese financial institutions and
nonfinancial companies, meanwhile, experienced an accelerating decline in fiscal 1997.

Foreign investors held 41 trillion yen worth of listed Japanese shares as of March 31, with
their share of total market capitalization rising to 13.4%, up from 11.9% a year earlier.

Although their proportion of total market capitalization rose, foreign investors' holdings
remained flat in terms of number of shares, at 9.8% of total outstanding shares.

"U.S. and European pension funds and investment funds increased their holdings in
globally competitive blue-chip companies," one market insider explained.

Japanese pension funds, meanwhile, increased their holdings of Japanese equities from 8
trillion yen to 12 trillion yen, accounting for 3.8% of total market capitalization as of March
31, up 1.4 percentage points.

The shareholdings of Japanese banks, however, fell three-tenths of a percentage point, to
14.8% of market capitalization - dropping under the 15% line for the first time in 10 years.

Nonfinancial companies saw their holdings shrink to 24.6% of market capitalization, down
1 percentage point.

The figures point to an ongoing shift in shareholding patterns. The percentage of
shareholders focused on shareholder value and efficiency of capital use is rising, while the
weight of stable shareholders who tend to park equities in their portfolios to cement
long-term business relationships is falling.

The shift is likely to ratchet up the pressure on Japan's public companies to focus on
stock-price performance.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )

Govt To Build Database Of Women Candidates For
Ministry Panels
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -The government plans to compile and put into operation from autumn a
database of 2,000 women active in the fields of politics, economy and culture to promote
and facilitate their candidacy for ministerial panels, sources said Friday.

Government ministries and agencies will use the database to review the women's
professional standings, achievements and government council involvement when selecting
panel members.

The Prime Minister's Office will collect the information from central and local governments.
It plans to expand the database to cover 7,000 women in fiscal 1999.

Women accounted for only 17.4% of ministerial panel members at the end of September
1997, far below the 30% medium-term target set by the government in 1996.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )

Toyota To Build UK Corolla With Peugeot Diesel
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Toyota Motor Corp. ( 7203 ) has decided to use a diesel engine made by
France's PSA Peugeot Citroen in its Corolla model, which it will begin manufacturing in
the U.K. this autumn, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Friday.

This is the first time that Toyota will be procuring engines from overseas makers.

The 2,000cc diesel engine supplied by Peugeot will power Toyota's Corolla Liftback.
Toyota plans to make about 100,000 of these models annually, of which about 10,000 will
likely be diesel vehicles.

Fuel-efficient diesel engines are popular in Europe, but the market remains small in Japan
and the U.S. Toyota hopes to build up sales of diesel vehicles before its new French plant
becomes operational in 2001.

Following its break with the tradition of procuring major components in Japan, Toyota
expects overseas parts purchases to accelerate, possibly reaching 1.7 trillion yen in five

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )

Upper House Majority Likely To Elude LDP In
Sunday Election
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to regain a simple majority
by winning at least 69 seats in the upper house election Sunday. Political experts don't like
the LDP's odds, however, with most agreeing the party is unlikely to win many more than
its current 60 seats. Another question is whether voter turnout will rise from the record low
of 44.52% set during the previous balloting in 1995.

A total of 474 candidates are running for office, with 316 contesting prefectural electoral
districts and 158 hoping to be appointed by their respective parties if the group attracts a
sufficient number of votes. The number of candidates is down from 567 in the 1995
election, while candidates and parties taking part in the proportional representation vote are
both at their lowest levels since the system was introduced in 1983.

The Japan Communist Party is looking to double the number of seats it holds, while
Komei's strong showing during the campaign stage suggests it may also attract support.

The Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party will have a hard time keeping their
current seats, analysts say.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )


Copyright 1998 Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., all rights reserved.
If you are having technical difficulties please contact the Webmaster

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:23 - ID#426220)

OLD-GOLD: Would you venture to provide any suppoting arguments to your assertion?!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:34 - ID#113316)
On Monday I indicated there would be blood on the streets in the Internet stocks. The decline started Monday afternoon and has only begun. Rallies ( if any ) will stall at lower highs and declines will go to lower lows. It is clear that distribution is now going on in these stocks.

Case in point is YAHOO. Highly touted 2Q earnings of 15 cents per share were before a "non-recurring" charge of $44.1 million. Actually had a loss of 81 cents per share after the charge. The $44.1 million charge was for "R&D" associated with the acquisition of VIAWEB, which was acquired for 455,000 shares of YAHOO valued at $49 million at that time. The $44.1 million charge exceeded YAHOO's revenues for 2Q of $41.2 million and dwarfted YAHOO's $8.1 million in earnings before the charge. Since any rational person must question the wisdom of investing in a stock that sells at 50 times PROJECTED REVENUES and 300 times PROJECTED EARNINGS in the best of circumstances in any event, how does one also figure in to the equation the implications of a charge of this magnitude compared with the fundamental values of the company? IMHO, YAHOO is not worth $20 per share let alone $200. There is plenty of downside in this stock!

A similar case can be made for all of the InterNet Stocks. As they gain momentum on the downside, they will start to pull the other high tech stocks down which will in turn spill over into the rest of the markets. Any rallies now are just last gasps of the bull market in financial assets.

Just like financial assets have moved to overvalued levels that are not related to their fundamental values, PMs have moved to undervalued levels that are also not related to their fundamental values. The new supply to demand imbalance for gold and silver ( and platinum??? ) is well documented and therefore the issue is whether supply from existing stock piles can drive the price down further, e.g., CB sales and leases, producer forward sales.

If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) .

IMHO, we are not even in a bear market in PMs in general. Gold is already in a bull market in Australian dollars or South African rand. It is of interest to note that six months ago South African gold mines were on the verge of closure because they were high cost producers. Now with the collapse in the rand, they are expected to be highly profitable. They are not any more efficient today than six months ago. They have simply been saved by the currency crisis.

Japan and China have trade surpluses and huge foreign currency reserves. The US has a trade deficit that is growing to unsustainable levels and is the largest debtor nation ( more than all of the other countries of the world combined ) . On an economic basis the dollar is overvalued against the yen ( estimated 30% ) and other currencies. This cannot go on forever. The dollar cannot run to 200 yen. IMHO, the break in the dollar will coincide with the decline in the US financial markets.

We are at the brink of the confluence of events that will all come to play to reverse the US dollar bear market in PMs.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:40 - ID#242325)
vronsky: read the post. Despite all the doom and gloom re: Japan, foreign investments in Japanese stocks have reached record levels. They are buying globally competitive blue chips, not the average Japanese equity.. Appaerently these pension fund mangers see Japan, or at least some sectors of the market there, in a different light than the super bears.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 11:50 - ID#254112)
@SILVERFOX: Excellent Market Analysis (Your 11:34)
Thank you!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:04 - ID#426220)

OLD GOLD: The source of this CALVALIER HYPE is far far more pertinent, relevant AND IMPORTANT than the hype itself.

Source: The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition!!!!!!!

In fact it is as "unbiased" as the WALL STREET JOURNAL extolling the virtues of a DOW 9000+ - with prospects of 15000 "just 'round the corner."

Certainly all must agree the media is controlled by stock markets of each country. Furthermore, in the case of Japan, the governement lays a heavy hand indeed in "molding" the spin or take on what is happening on the Nippon economic and financial scenes.

Frankly, the so-called "arguments" set forth by The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition cite irrevant and immaterial aspects that hardy suggest "smart money" is today accumulating securities. PLEASE not the date given is 1997!!!! So what are they doing TODAY?! SINCE WHEN IS JAPAN
keeping the world abreast of CURRENT EVENTS - in a timely fashion.

The real economic NUMBERS belie all these assertions.

Methinks those who might be snapping up Nikkei stocks are acting as recklessly as those still accumulating the DOW and S&P500 paper with an unprecedented 28 TIMES EARNINGS... WHICH not only discount the future but also the here after!

SMART MONEY IS AND HAS BEEN FOR SOME TIME ACCUMULATING PRECIOUS METALS INVESTMENTS. OH, you ask for supporting arguments - touche! Please peruse the following 700 webpages for supporting arguments from analysts of 62 countries. Yes, it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:33 - ID#426220)

OLD GOLD: Ref Your "Appaerently these pension fund mangers

see Japan, or at least some sectors of the market there, in a different light than the super bears."

Secuities Law in the Land of the Setting Sun are very similar to that of the US. Specifically, Mutual Funds are obligaed by their by-laws to maintain 90% to 95% invested in prescribed stock market investment objectives at all times.

While some Japanese pension fund managers may be jettisoning their worst dogs, they are forced to reinvest the funds into securities which have not ( at least to date ) been bleeding as badly. Tantamount to changing deck-chairs on the Titanic. Futile, unproductive, illusory maneuvers leading inevitably to sinking further.

As you so aptly and astutely indicated many times in the last couple years ( but in reference to other type of investments ) , before the Nikkei finally bottoms there will be a massive sell-off on record volume - thus heralding the "Banzai-Titanic" has reached the ocean floor.

Right now the Banzai-Titanic is listing badly 35 degrees to starboard. NOW, is not the most ideal time to "book passage!"

Delete the extra letters "en"

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:39 - ID#253153)
Banks are about to cease renewing loans to third world countries
Right now , the banks are rolling the loans over because they have no other choice. They are lending the third world countries money to pay the interest on existing loans because they see no ather alternative. Soon, the banks will cease to make new loans to pay the interest. The IMF is just about out of money and that's when the third world countries will make their formal defaults. Who will formally default ? Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuala, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, etc. This wil cause erosion of confidence and depositors will become more cautious.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:54 - ID#251268)
checking it out
this is a test,hope it works

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:59 - ID#426220)

SILVERFOX: Many thx for very insightful observations:

"IMHO, we are not even in a bear market in PMs in general. Gold is already in a bull market in Australian dollars or South African rand. It is of interest to note that six months ago South African gold mines were on the verge of closure because they were high cost producers. Now with the collapse in the rand, they are expected to be highly profitable. They are not any more efficient today than six months ago. They have simply been saved by the currency crisis."

"If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) ."

Needless to say resident South African Gold Stock Analyst, John Disney, concurs completely - and provides detailed supporting arguments with irrefutable numbers.

Per custom delete letters "en"

(Sun Jul 12 1998 12:59 - ID#251268)
okay,life is good,
been out of town working on the other side of the Island and my pc crashed etc.,okay I need a favor,how do I get the frames version of the group where all the charts on the side and quotes on top? thanks for the help.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:00 - ID#147201)
Money 111
In the two previous posts I have been working on the concept of "Beyond the foreseeable future". If the "population did not have this ability, how would they distinguish among coins to tell which is the best ( besides knowledge of the content etc ) ? I'm not going into scales and other measuring devices, but evidently this ability existed- otherwise why did Gresham make his observations? I fthis innate human ability ever existed, it surely does today. It only has to be put to the test. In view of Y2K and the financial fracas that is entirely possible, this test is not too far off. So, even though official certification can be bred into coins, it is the test of the fire of social unrest that proves them. What do you think of a 10 grain coin with the proper credentials ( 9999 fine etc ) in a time when gold is several thousand $ per ounce? Questions and comments invited

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:02 - ID#426220)

SILVERFOX: Many thx for very insightful observations:

"IMHO, we are not even in a bear market in PMs in general. Gold is already in a bull market in Australian dollars or South African rand. It is of interest to note that six months ago South African gold mines were on the verge of closure because they were high cost producers. Now with the collapse in the rand, they are expected to be highly profitable. They are not any more efficient today than six months ago. They have simply been saved by the currency crisis."

"If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) ."

Needless to say resident South African Gold Stock Analyst, John Disney, concurs completely - and provides detailed supporting arguments with irrefutable numbers.

Per custom delete letters "en"

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:03 - ID#342397)
Valuable Info
Sharefin @ your 3:43, where would those places be??

Tolerant1 @ your 7:53, execellent resources, many thanks.


(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:04 - ID#342397)
Must get myself an excellent spell checker

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:06 - ID#147201)
Money 111
In the two previous posts I have been working on the concept of "Beyond the foreseeable future". If the "population did not have this ability, how would they distinguish among coins to tell which is the best ( besides knowledge of the content etc ) ? I'm not going into scales and other measuring devices, but evidently this ability existed- otherwise why did Gresham make his observations? I fthis innate human ability ever existed, it surely does today. It only has to be put to the test. In view of Y2K and the financial fracas that is entirely possible, this test is not too far off. So, even though official certification can be bred into coins, it is the test of the fire of social unrest that proves them. What do you think of a 10 grain coin with the proper credentials ( 9999 fine etc ) in a time when gold is several thousand $ per ounce? Questions and comments invited

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:08 - ID#358318)
Rule, Britannia!
Plenty of Brits here, keep your eyes open!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:10 - ID#147201)
John Disney re SA golds
The relationship between currncies and gold is most aptly expressed in your article. Many thanx for this work, Charlie

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:17 - ID#286230)
Crossbow: Here is your free Spell checker. Works on almost any text you type into any Windows program.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:17 - ID#266105)
Harmony share issuance

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:22 - ID#287129)
Thank you for your 10:01 posting today. For any lurkers who did not read that, it bears reading...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:29 - ID#251268)
Would apreciate any sugestions on how to get the version of this group with the charts on the side ,thanks

(Sun Jul 12 1998 13:39 - ID#254112)
@gagnrad: My unresolved questions regarding Churchill
Your: Sun Jul 12 1998 10:49
Right now I'm more involved in the future than in the past. But let me quickly tell you what my concerns are regarding Winston Churchill, and why I see his speaches as impressive propaganda, but not in synch with facts.
England and France have declared war on Germany after Germany and the Sowjet Union attacked together ( ! ) Poland.
Note: England and France have not declared war on the Sowjet Union. ( This and the fact that the allies all were quite comfortable after the war, when Poland came under Sowjet rule tells something about the credibility of this "great leader" ) .
After France surrendered and 200,000 British soldiers were granted honorable withdrawal at Dunkichen, the German Government desperately tried to get a peace treaty with Great Britain. At this point, Hitler had understood how stupid it was to attack Poland toghether with Stalin and that way give green light to the Brits to enter the war. Stalin had amassed 4 million troops on the western border ( he had now a common border with Germany, because Poland was wiped out as a state. ) Churchill never made any attempt to come to peace with Germany. He blocked these attempts from the German side. We all know the outcome. And I think the best being said about this outcome are Churchill's own words after the war was over: "We have slaughtered the wrong pig."

Was the result of this war, in which Chrchill played a key role, such a good thing? Stalin's empire was one of the results. The bi-polaric power architecture to share the domination of the world between the USA and Stalin's Sowjet Union was another result.

I actually feel quite happy that these results have broken down in the meantime. And I do not share the opinion of those who think WWII had any great leaders on either side. They all have created a lot of evil and suppression and I feel that the victorious powers remained the more dangerous ones for the future. There didn't come out anything good from this time. IMHO.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:00 - ID#421269)
@ Jman

I e -mailed myself the link , that is one way, sure there are easier ones.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:01 - ID#29048)
Yen to 200...from the N.Y Times

A Great Big Bounce for Dollars and Bonds


Like a beach ball held under water and then released, the dollar popped up again last week. The dollar index, a measure of the value of the United States currency against 10 major world currencies, reached a high Thursday of 102.46, a level unseen since 1989. The index closed the week at 102.03. Currency traders, concerned that the Treasury might intervene again on behalf of the Japanese yen and sell dollars, were cautious about the move. Was it a blip or the start of a long dollar uptrend?

"We're seeing the birth of a new bull market in the dollar that won't peak out until 2002," said Martin Armstrong, chairman of Princeton Economics International, a global advisory firm based in Princeton, N.J., that specializes in global economic issues. Armstrong expects the dollar to hit 200 yen a year from now, up from 141.2 on Friday. He expects the U.S. currency to rally to 2.85 German marks to the dollar, up from 1.82.

A strong dollar has implications for both stock and bond investors in the

United States. Generally, a powerful currency is negative for stocks because it makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas. Bonds, meanwhile, are helped by a rising dollar as investors the world over buy U.S. Treasuries to benefit from the currency's strength.

Last week, currency traders were waiting to see results of Sunday's parliamentary elections in Japan. But the elections will have little impact on the three bases for Armstrong's forecast of a stronger dollar.

The first is Phase 2 of financial deregulation in Japan, set for Jan. 1, 1999, which will free Japanese pension funds to invest in instruments other than Japanese government bonds. Because confidence in Japan's institutions is so low, and interest rates are less than 1 percent, the managers will find U.S. Treasuries attractive.

Armstrong says that discussions with some of these managers leads him to expect that 15 percent of the $9 trillion invested will head for the U.S. bond market. That's more than $1 trillion. "The Japanese have the potential to be to the U.S. bond market what the Hunt brothers were to silver," he said, referring to the Texas investors. This flood of funds will drive long-term U.S. interest rates to 4.75 percent from Sunday's 5.6 percent. Funds will begin flowing in January; more will come in April, when Japan's fiscal year begins.

The second prod to the dollar relates to the economic meltdown in Russia. U.S. exposure is relatively small: of the $70 billion in loans to Russia, 10 percent originated here. Most came from Europe; $30 billion from Germany.

Finally, the dollar will benefit from the chaos surrounding he introduction of the euro, the single European currency, next year.

"Capital is pouring out of Germany," said Armstrong. "They have figured out that the value of the euro cannot be the value of the strongest currency in the basket. So they're moving out capital as a hedge." Where is it going? To the United States.

It all adds up to a mighty dollar and a bull move in bonds. As for stocks, Armstrong thinks European markets, up more than 35 percent this year, are very vulnerable. U.S. markets, concerned about the dollar's rise and the upheaval in Russia, may decline later this summer, Armstrong said. But he doesn't expect a correction greater than 20 percent. "With U.S. interest rates coming down," he said, "Equities will recover."

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:10 - ID#421269)
@ jman

If you will provide me with address I will be happy to mail it to you.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:22 - ID#411112)
BLACK MONDAY......Looks like we will see some heavy action when Japan opens,PM Hashimoto may have to

call it quits

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:27 - ID#434298)
Perhaps Gold's price would increase
Given enough capital gets out of paper soon enough.
Unfortunately it may flee from dollars to Euros or,
if Japan/pan-asia ever gets it together, to Yen.

But during a stock market crash and chaos the POG
could go to US$1000. Then as countries and people
sell it off to survive it could decend to US$300
or lower.
But it will always be in the hands of the wealthy
who have the spare capital to invest in luxury.

I am just saddened that common folk will never see it
used again for commonly circulating coinage.
It will be forever locked up in vaults or private hoards.

Our only hope is Silver - and that does not look good either -
given the apathy and inaction in returning it to circulation.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:40 - ID#298259) you go...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:42 - ID#421269)
@ Grizz

I agree that it is sad that bad money replaces good money, but that is the way it will always be. Things go up ,and things go down, buy em when they are down.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:43 - ID#434298)
Chas - a 10grain .9999 coins sounds GREAT
Even with a POG of US$1000 it could still fulfill the role now presently served by US$20 bill. Most everybody I know could afford one of those - especially if we could, eventually, be able to buy groceries with them.
If enough got into circultion, if they became as ubiquitous as US$20s or even replaced them, then we would have a chance of returning to a Gold standard. One such coin could equal two bags of groceries ( not counting cigarettes and similar expensive non-groceries ) .

Thank you Chas -
You brightened up my Sunday!
Now if others jump on this bandwagon...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:54 - ID#207145)
The top of everything
may be July 23, give or take 2 days. The market is near taking a dump, but, retail money is pouring in. Last nails.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:58 - ID#207145)
Gretchen may be selling Europe
Short. I will sell on 22nd, then buy back November 1st. Europe has a much brighter near term , long term future due to upcoming events in Europe.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:59 - ID#350194)
World War II
Alberich - Your slant on World War II is strange to say the least. Did not England, through Chamberlain, try to dissuade Hitler from attacking innocent countries BEFORE further hostilities broke out? Your surprise that Churchill rebuffed Hitler's overtures for peace ( after he had Fortress Europe under his yolk ) is laughable. It is quite obvious, even to children playing board games, that with Russia's army on his Eastern Front, Hitler wanted merely a time-out with England. Do you really think he would have let England remain as his only independant neighbour? And whether or not that possibility ever would have happened, just think what a wonderful world we would be living in today if Hitler was left to his devices in his united Europe. Your statement that "... the allies all were quite comfortable after the war, when Poland came under Sowjet rule..." is also laughable. I don't know where you get the gaul to make such totally black and white statements which are very much opposite of the reality that the west lived with for the next 45 years! Since I have taken some little time to write this I am probably going to post and find that someone much better equipped than I has tried to set you straight, but judging by the weird slant that you have of history and how things are, were, might have been, ( should have been? ) , I doubt very much that anything will change your predispositions. Good Luck on writing YOUR version of History and the way things could have been ( IF there had been any other 'great' leaders besides Hitler ) . BTW - I have a couple of Nazi War medals for sale if you are interested. One is from the great winter campaign in Russia that I understand the German soldiers referred to as the 'meat waggon' campaign, as more of them died from frostbite than from Russian bullets. Cheerio!

Dave in CO
(Sun Jul 12 1998 14:59 - ID#229103)
700 Club warns about Y2K

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:05 - ID#207145)
Was a poor painter, and even worse as a tactician. He was a great politician, however. Goebels reminds me of spin campaigns we see today.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:07 - ID#290118)
RE 700 club and Y2K
See my posts Sat Jul 11 1998 04:56 and 14:22
for a report to Kitcoites as to what was said.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:11 - ID#207145)
Liberal Democrats
can be draft doggers, adulterers, can sell the Lincoln bedroometc, but the Liberal Press maintains that it's being hard on them. Hard like they were on Gary Hart?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:14 - ID#207145)
The real problem in USA
Is the Left Wing, embedded, Liberal news media. Peter Arnette is a great example of a man who hates the military, for example.

Dave in CO
(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:15 - ID#229103)
Read and appreciated your posts. This is just another perspective with some Q&A from the show. If it causes a few more to prepare, a little redundancy doesn't hurt. Are you in CO too?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:18 - ID#207145)
Republicans are inept
So who do you turn to ( Ghost Busters ) . We have a bit of a problem here. Sane people know better than to run. What would the Media do to a conservative? Death by 1000cuts?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:20 - ID#350194)
@vronsky's 13:02
vronsky - I agree with most of your 13:02 whether it was your words or Silverfox's but in the sentence, "If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) .", I must point out that the last time that Gold was at $630, Silver was at approximately $25. and I believe that this is a much more reasonable target for Silver than $8-10 if Gold does hit the $600 area again in the near future.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:21 - ID#427357)
IT'S OFFICIAL: Gold Legal Tender


The equivalent of Hong Kong's Central Bank is called "Hong Kong Monetary
Authority ( HKMA ) ."

Without fanfare the inscrutable HKMA declared they were issuing GOLD COINS which will be considered as LEGAL TENDER. Contemplate what the monumental and transcendental significance of this act.

Firstly, it obviously has the TOTAL APPROVAL of the Sino-Government - which guides and controls the actions of 1.25 billion people. And secondly, the declaration by the Central Bank that its GOLD COINS are now considered LEGAL TENDER must necessarily cause very raised eyebrows of
Messieurs Alan Greenspan, Hans TietMeyer, Eddy George and the irascible Hashimoto.

On June 5th the HKMA announced the issuance of the Hong Kong International Airport Commemorative Gold Coin. The launch of Commemorative Gold Coin - which is issued by the HKMA on behalf of the Government of the Hong Kong - marks the opening of the new Hong
Kong International Airport in July 1998.

The announcement states "The Gold Coin features a design symbolising Hong Kong's ascent into the new century, and bears the standard Bauhinia design on the other side. The Gold Coin is legal tender with a HK$1,000 face value. It is produced by the Royal Mint of the United Kingdom in 22-carat gold."

HOWEVER, THE ANNOUNCEMENT CONSPICULOUSLY OMITS THE WIEGHT OF THE COIN!!!!!!!!!!!! Any novice coin buyer knows from his ABCs that it is imperative to state the weight of any precious metals coin. Especially so, it is also considered LEAGAL TENDER.

Is this all too important AND DELIBERATE OMISSION indicative of what China has in mind?

Let's consider what is revealed. A gold coin is issued - and considered as LEGAL TENDER WITH A HK$1,000 FACE VALUE. But, B-U-T, the Gold Coin will be sold in Hong Kong for HK$3,288 each. EACH, THE MAN SAID! The mintage will be limited to 15,000 pieces worldwide. That's a shade more than $49,000,000.

Is something afoot? Were I forced to guess, I would estimate the coin to be a One or Three ouncer max - since 3 oz of gold at today's price is roughly $1,000. HOWEVER, your guess is as good as mine. Check it out for your self.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:23 - ID#207145)
Check out Oil. Gold won't move till oil does
Maybe I'm too simplistic, but Gold is dead without help from Asia, CRB.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:25 - ID#207145)
Honking a horn don't make it so
Catching knives is so stupid. 3rd leg to come in Asia. Be a hero. My chest is full O' Knives.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:26 - ID#373284)
some excellent possibilities with a wind up generator or batteries...more on Y2K

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:31 - ID#207145)
Japan will heal first
So maby October lows would be possible, who knows Either Oct., or Jan. 1. If the upside is like the downside, what a ride.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:33 - ID#373284)
more energy links for Y2K>

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:33 - ID#207145)
Other Asian countries are 2 years
Away from a good scab, which would imply a long term bull market in Gold?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:38 - ID#28994)
Thanks for your interesting reply.
There are many government leaders in the world today. The sad part is, there are far too few Churchills.

Are you aware of this:
Euro Defense Group
Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Britain said Friday the European aerospace and defence industry should form a single, private group as soon as possible to better face competition from the U.S.
They established a framework for a European Aerospace & Defence Co. and told the industry to come up with proposals by the end of October. A French official said the plan was to lump together all European defence and aerospace activities.
This includes France's Aerospatiale SA, Germany's Daimler-Benz Aerospace AG, Britain's British Aerospace PLC and activities of General Electric Co. PLC, Spain's CASA, Italy's Finmeccanica SpA and Sweden's Saab AB.
The regrouping could also involve Lagardere Groupe SCA, Thomson-CSF SA, Alcatel and Dassault Aviation SA.
Meanwhile, on Friday GEC and Finmeccanica announced an agreement to merge their interests in radar, missiles, command and control systems, and other activities.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:41 - ID#147201)
Grizz re email
Send me your email and I'll go into this a little deeper.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:47 - ID#373284)
Energy 101 - Y2K

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:48 - ID#412286)
You hit it the SPIN today about the US economy and spin on international events and news to keep the MARKETS up would make Goebbels look like an amateur. Notice how they are running hither and dither to bailout investors ( read socialism for bad investment decisions ) ...When this comes undone the beneficiaries of this socialism should bear the brunt and be discredited in the eyes of all. I just noticed how CNN continues to run human interest stories about China which MAKE China look like the US. Why no stories on the newly jailed dissidents and what a slap in the face to Clinton that is. OH well the Clinton News Network run by Jane Fonda Turner at it again. Isnt CNN the one who started the fake story about nerve gas being used by the US to kill defectors. OH how Jane wants to be right when she was so very wrong.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:53 - ID#373284)
Maybe one of the top two or three resources on the planet for enengy.Believe me.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 15:54 - ID#147201)
Very appropriate comment on The Mouth Of The World- Jane Fonda. She is worse than Hillary. It shouldn't be too long before the Clinton News Network folds. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:10 - ID#113316)
The long-term economic value of gold today is estimated at around $630. As we all recognize, the POG has been artificially depressed due to the historically recent inclination of the CBs to sell or lease a substantive portion of their reserves and the similar inclination of the producers to forward sales. The POG is currently selling at recent year lows.

Silver, on the other hand, has no vast reserves in the hands of CBs. The POS has actually been in an uptrend since it hit its lows in the mid $3 range a few years back. It is estimated that a price of $8 to $10 would encourage additional production to come on line. Consequently, one must watch new mine production carefully if the POS moves above $10.

Having said this, if CBs finally get the message that gold reserves ( and not paper financial assets ) are the key to stable currencies, and the public in general gets off the paper asset bandwagon and looks to hard assets once again, then one might imagine the POG and POS reaching for the stars. It wouldn't take much of an increase in investor demand to greatly affect the gold or silver markets, particularly the later. If only 10% of the money that is traded daily in the InterNet stocks today flowed into the silver market, there simply wouldn't be enough silver to go around.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:12 - ID#207145)
ROR, chas
You guys hit the nail on the head. Jane is a pathetic figure, but you have to admit Jane and Ted go well together, as they are both rather goofy.
Kudos to your insight guys.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:12 - ID#402131)
JP-your post on debt default
I have to agree, How could anyone by any strech of logic,believe that these countries can come up with the cash to pay off this debt. If they couldn't pay the original debts off how will they ever do it after the devaluations. The business world in these countries have almost stopped
dead. No, the banks await Uncle Sugar and the IMF to save them at taxpayer expense-and us taxpayers are broke!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:13 - ID#259400)
Deflation, deflation, deflation
I am formally issuing a deflation alert based upon todays events. Local computer store sent me a beautiful full color ad sheet today listing a laptop computer at a good price. I immeidately jumped in my car and drove down there. I rushed into the store with my ad sheet in one hand and my Platinum Plus card in the other. I went immediately to the computer department and staked out my claim in front of the item on sale. After standing there for 14 minutes with the ad sheet in one hand and a credit card in the other I thought maybe I wasn't being seen by the store clerks. I am 6 feet tall and pushing 25 stone so I had a hard time accepting that but in any event I thought perhaps if I were a bit more forceful I might be able to buy my goods and get out of there. I held up the ad and credit card and shouted in a large angry voice. "I know what I want and I can pay for it immediately, will someone take my money"? Half a dozen people laughed and one guy clapped his hands but no store clerk took me up on offer. I finally gave up and left empty handed. I know in my heart of hearts the store manager will turn in a report monday stating sales were slow this week end and the sale didn't work. He will probably also recommend slashing prices to move the merchandise. No wonder prices are falling. No one can buy anything.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:16 - ID#207145)
Rubin, Greenspan will see to it
That banks are paid and to Hell with the citzens. I hope Republicans stop all IMF funds. To hell with the Bankers. No risk, thats a Fat Cat game noone else can play.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:18 - ID#207145)
Inflation is the problem from here on out. Oil and the CRB won't stay down.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:22 - ID#207145)
Deflation is seductive, but not going to happen yet
3rd quarter GDP on 30th will be STRONGER than expected. 3rd quarter weak, but low rates will kindle the 4th. Rates will go up. Dollar must keep up with Euro.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:23 - ID#359316)
The best thing Jane Fonda ever did...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:28 - ID#147201)
Blooper re Jane
I don't know if it was the weed early in her life or her father, but something sent her on the path to hell. Whenever she shows on tv, I have to move it. Glad to see somebody else is aware of such a witch. Cheers, Charlie

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:29 - ID#259400)
Silverfox, who estimates the price of gold should be $630 and what is their methodology? The price of something is what it is depending of supply and demand. Take away jewelry and industrial demand and the supply of gold is way out of proportion to it's demand. Seems to me that if there were a shortage of gold the price would go up. Seems to me if there were an over abundance of gold the price would go down. I find it easier to believe that the price of gold was held artificially high through central bank hoarding and that now the price is returning gradually to it's true level as the central banks divest themselves of their hoard. The real question should be what would the price of gold be on the open market if the CB's put it all up for sale. Then the true price of gold would become known.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:33 - ID#207145)
Deflation is seductive, but not going to happen yet
3rd quarter GDP on 30th will be STRONGER than expected. 3rd quarter weak, but low rates will kindle the 4th. Rates will go up. Dollar must keep up with Euro.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:40 - ID#207145)
Had to endure indignity of Hanoi Jane's anti aircraft ditty while serving in Vietnam. She was a babe in Barbarella. I would have done her, just wouldn't have agreed with her politics.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:43 - ID#207145)
Ted's accomplishments are many
I don't take anything away from a brilliant career. He's just a goofy kind of dude who became a liberal cause he wanted to go all the way ( to goofy ) .

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:49 - ID#373284)
Weed does not a traitor make..........gulp and a puff to ya...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 16:54 - ID#242325)
More wild cards for the international monetary system

07/12 3:24A ( DJ ) Japan To Propose Asian Yen Loan System Using JGBs: Nikkei

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) --The Bank of Japan will introduce a system of providing
yen-denominated loans to other central banks, mainly in Asia, using Japanese
government bonds held by those institutions as collateral, the Sunday edition
of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports.
The newspaper quotes BOJ sources as saying the move is primarily designed to
help other Asian countries ease liquidity problems and stabilize their
financial systems. It is also aimed at promoting internationalization of the
Japanese currency.
The BOJ will propose the idea at meetings in Tokyo of the Bank for
International Settlements on Monday and the East Asian and Pacific Central
Bankers ( EMEAP ) on Tuesday.
The system envisages a 'repo' formula under which a foreign central bank
would sell its Japanese government bonds to the BOJ under a repurchase
agreement, in exchange for which the BOJ would loan yen to that central bank.
The BOJ initially plans to conclude bilateral agreements on the system with
central banks in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, the sources said. It hopes to
ink similar accords with other central banks by end-1998.
The BOJ already has similar agreements with other Asian central banks in
regard to dollar loans, but this would be the first time it adopted them fo

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:06 - ID#433172)
Over my head
There is plenty of confusion in my mind over the currency games, price of gold, bonds and futures and puts and shoves.
If we were on an absolute gold monetary system world-wide I think I could figure it out. But there wouldn't be room for all these neat money making investment schemes for the smart crowd. An old saying " Give a begger a horse and he will ride it to death", seems appropriate to our problem world-wide. Or am I missing something?
Using hindsight is always easy and our critical thinking often seduced by our superior understanding of events long past. I've thought how WW2 might have gone differently, but I remember how it was when it was going down, at the time no-one was thinking of a post war period, we just wanted to win and get it over with. Hard to fault the Allies, Churchhill,even the Russians. Like all tyrants Hitler built a war machine then used it, they all do.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:07 - ID#373284)
some thoughts on Not Fonda Jane and the COWARD Erect...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:20 - ID#368244)
Gold bullion coin act

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:26 - ID#373284)
An excellent book concerning the Internet, governments, corporations and YOU

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:31 - ID#288155)
Dollar strong? Or the deals just too tempting to ignore?

Some thoughts on "dollar strength": Europeans can use their currency, let's use D-marks for example, and purchase US bonds ( an ancillary being the dollar goes up ) ; the German ( in our example ) is holding a dollar based asset, yes? In Jan 1, 1999 his D-mark will be a Euro at roughly at 2 D-marks= 1 Euro. A significant hair-cut.

But look how well he has done with his US bonds; in that instance his D-marks are dollars and equal to his new Euro. So he has found a "safe haven" for his disappearing currency in a paper asset which is going to bring him quite nice total return in a few months. And then too, he will be able to purchase gold at what will seem 50% off!
The "deal" is just too sweet to pass up! And how sweet it is!{:- ) )

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:41 - ID#350194)
True Price of Gold
Bill2j - I agree totally with the words you have written in your 16:49, but I believe that the end price of Gold that you are contemplating would differ greatly from what I believe would happen under those circumstances. I believe that after a short adjustment period the Gold price would then skyrocket vis a vis the fiat bills in your hands. If the Central Banks held NO Gold in their vaults do you really believe that the end result could be other than total destruction of the sad currencies with nothing backing them save other pieces of printed paper? It was during the major bank sales of the 70's that the price of Gold steadily rose as the smart money realised what the end result would be if the nations were to actually follow through and sell all their Gold. The more they sold the higher the price rose. The banks backed off. What you have been seeing for the last number of years is more smoke and mirrors than reality. No, Bill, if the hoards were actually to be totally divested, you had better be at the front of the line buying.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:43 - ID#373284)

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:43 - ID#350194)
Sorry - Your 16:29!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 17:53 - ID#254112)
@Mooney: The bi-polaric Power Architecture
Many people call it the cold war period which followed the WWII period where Stalin and Roosevelt were good friends.
From a more naughty, less politically correct viewpoint, let's call it the bi-polaric domination of Europe through USA and the SSU. Did this architecture fall into place just by itself or was it politically engineered?
If you look at Europe at the beginning of the 20th century we see the two central powers of Europe: the German Kaiserreich and the Austrian-Hungarian. Industrialization went on rapidly. These two central European powers became stronger and stronger every year. If you want to dominate Europe from the periphery, from U.K for instance, what would you do?

I think the strategists who engineered and implemented the bi-polaric architecture were well trained in the Marxist dialectic theory. If they believed that history was driven by antagonist forces, the only way to stay on top of the historic development was to become master and creator of both, the capitalistic center and the proletarian center of world revolution. The one threatens the other and the mutual threat holds both emires toghether. The best ally of the USA to dominate Europe was the threat imposed on Europe by the Sowjet Union. The weakened European nation states felt the need of protection. The USA could easily mask domination behind her role as protector.

The cold war warriors remained the naive supporters of the entire architecture. The financial oligarchy knew what they wanted when they established the bolshewist terror system in the empire of the Zar.

It took two world wars to put this bi-polaric architecture into place.
To put it into place was the driver of the history of our century.

My worry is, that we are not done with this concept. Isn't it the true goal of the IMF to convince poor peoples all over the world of how terrible capitalism is: higher bread prices, higher taxes, higher fuel prices, and destryed national economies, for the benefit of the big international bankers.

But the oligarchy will need China to play along, to play the role of the anti pole. China/USA, that would be the only way to re-establish a bi-polaric architecture. But it would require to penetrate China in a way the oligarchy was able to penetrate Russia during and after WWI. China might not play along. The more independent China becomes, relying on gold instead of becoming part of the US$ empire, the better for the whole world.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:05 - ID#368244)
Bill2j , heres one mans opinion

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:18 - ID#43460)
Alberich_A, rising Sun, Skinny, All
Alberch_A, apologies for any ill feelings about the Battle of Britain. My main point was that gold has an intrinsic value to buy weapons. I could probably used as example the Medieval contract between the Vatican and the Helvetic Confederation for the swiss Guards, but the rapid fire cannon for the Battle of Britain were more recent. IMHO

Rising Sun and Skinny, thanks but I'm sorry to have led the conversation off topic. Am encouraged though by the EU developing space consortium as is too big for one country alone. The same thing happened when Dutch, English, Spanish, Portugese, French formed companies to compete for New World trade. Anticipate NASA + former USSR + China will be stronger than NASA alone and all will help colonize space sooner. ( using vast amounts of gold in the process ) IMHO

All, a selection of references in response to discussion of US gold laws. Some are better than others:

United states code page

Council quest notable acts of congress and search page

Sample link from Council quest page ( gold hoarding act )

Another less satisfactory list of popular names of laws

lists laws by name then describes their reference numbers

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:18 - ID#350194)
The Guiding Hand of Military Intelligence
Alberich - I fear your reading of the subsequent results of WWII, as if they were meticulously planned before hand, is just out and out wrong. Do you believe that England wanted the destruction of lives and Empire that WWII wrought? Do you really believe that planners in Washington huddled pre-WWII and determined a system for European domination? Certainly the EFFECTS of the WAR were somewhat along the lines you suggest, but your supposition that behind the scenes manipulators calculated this outcome years in advance, I find very hard to swallow.
During the 30's I believe that Groucho Marx was in tune with the times when he said, "Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms." The world was different back then, Alberich, and especially the US military intelligence machine, compared to post '45. Believe it.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:20 - ID#259400)
It may well be that you are right but I think there is one very large difference between now and the 70's. Back in the 70's when the US went off the gold standard I was very suspicious of government, their motives, their intentions and I feared the US government more than I did the Russians. I had a hard time picturing the Russians crossing the Bering Straits, crossing all of Canada and then invading Minnesota. I had no difficulty picturing US troops pointing their weapons at the US citizenry. I saw it on tv all through the 60's race riots and the 70's Viet Nam war protests. I remeber Kent State very well. Most of my generation felt the same way. Now we have a generation of young people that has no fear of government and believes in their heart of hearts that government is the answer or at the very least can find the answer. That is why Bill Clinton is so popular in spite of his personal shortcomings. All my children know that no harm can come to them because the government won't let it. Stock market crash? It will never happen because the government won't let it. The stock market will go up 15% every year, their pay will go up every year and life will be better and better all because of our wonderful government. Assuming my children are fair examples of the new generation I can very easily see where the CB's could divest themselves of gold and not a murmer of protest would be raised. Back in the 70's gold went up as the CB's sold gold. Now it would go down because the new generation makes no connection between gold and fiscal matters. If you took the first 100 people aged 25 off the street I doubt if you would find one that even knew that their government owns gold. If they did they would make no connection between gold and money. They would wonder why they were hoarding all that jewellry. Don't believe me, go talk to some young people.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:25 - ID#373284)
The Coward Erects rating are slipping
I expect them to be in free fall soon...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:26 - ID#335190)
...............Oris Fri Jul 10 @ 10:32:
Test- NO, I do not know the test. Likely, figures can lie and liar's can figure. I am interested in Russia, as are most other's. WHY?. Why Not?

..................tolerant1 Fri Jul 10 @ 10:47:
Yes, I am with you to establish our own special forces team ( USofA/Canadian ) . Throw out the government and the IMF. Great plan to take the Bloc in less than 3 months. Also the Mafia & Sports. Import/Export, very good planning tolerant. I like the act of arming everyone in the country, and establish a Republic. Long live kindness and consideration eh!

.................Jed Jul 10 11:09:
Russian polititicoes and smoking. Yes, they are going to find out the hard way. Lynch mobs and ordinary folks and international Banker's will never get their ( Citizen's/Worker's/Taxpayer's ) debt's paid. Why, hell, these Banker's do not want to have the debt paid, debt is money and power, civil war and bureaucrat's hanging from lamp post's is an acceptable risk, when you consider that the Banker's have never been brought before a citizen's court, nor have they been hanged from lamp posts. The International/Corporation banker's ARE the "power's to be".

Progressive Internationalist's have no interest in having the worker's paid, no, they are playing the game "New Economic Order" How low a cost/price will the citizen/worker/taxpayer accept the value of his/her labour before the masses push back.

In Russia, they work for nothing, that is as low as one would expect them to go. Should the citizen/worker/taxpayer be blamed for working for nothing, or should we blame the Progressive Internationalist's for asking these people to work for nothing. They ( Russian's ) now have freedom of choice eh!

The NEW and IMPROVED GOD, is the power of the progressive international universe, know it, and do not question such power. What is good for the corporation, is good for the citizen.

The economic issues are becoming impossible to understand eh! I get confused, I have a difficult time trying to get a reasonable view of what the hell is going on. Especially, in Russia and Asia. I expect, North America will also accept the "New Economic Order".

Gold, as an example. Why have the citizen continued to accept debt, as wealth and value?

Take Care


Corporation's working the poor, and the union's. YES, with the full support of the government establishment, and union establishment.
( Fear/Hate/Greed )

What do you think the chance is of the poor, and the union member's knowing how they both are being controlled by the "power's to be" and the union member knowing that his/her union leadership, are policemen, To Protect and Serve, WHOM?

***********Example** "SUB PRIME LENDING" Household Finance & GM card & AFL-CIO Priviledge Credit Cards.

"real estate-secured credit program for applicants with better than *** "subprime" *** credit histories, Household has agreed to lend $3 billion to low and moderate income real estate-secured borrowers over the next three years,

Its principal card products include the GM Card and the AFL-CIO's Union Privilege card.

For Household, this consumer segment is one with which we are well acquainted, and in fact, we have been meeting their borrowing needs since 1878 when HFC was founded."


Additional Funds for Political Efforts- Part 1 the Union Credit Card

Union members have to pay extra money in dues and taxes for the decisions of their bosses to fund Democrat political activities. Soon they will be paying with their credit cards as well.

"The AFL-CIO executive council voted Thursday to pursue a new affiliated credit card deal that would raise millions for its political and organizing efforts.

"Wrapping up its annual winter meeting, AFL-CIO approved a proposal by **Household International Inc.** that will generate an estimated $375 million in revenue for the federation over five years" ( emphasis added )
( Associated Press, 2/22/96 )

"A signing bonus of $50 million could be available in time to boost political action efforts this fall, according to David Silverman, an AFL-CIO attorney."

"Under such plans, members are encouraged to apply for credit cards, which are backed by banks. The organizations receive royalty payments based on the money the bank earns from card holders." ( emphasis added )
( Associated Press, 2/23/96 )

"While the AFL-CIO has attempted to portray this new agreement as good for workers, the bank presumably could offer a lower interest rate if the federation were not receiving half of the payments. If a bank acting alone propped up interest rates to divert the profits to other ventures, Sweeney and his allies no doubt would complain of 'corporate greed.' When the AFL-CIO does the same thing to advance its own political ambitions, it apparently is virtuous."
( Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder Update, number 270, 3/14/

( WHY NOT Credit Union's )
( Why not an out and out attack against Corporation's and Bank's )
( Debts and how Gold & Silver values, are important in International Trade )
( Why is Union membership at 15% of the labour force in USofA & Canada. ) ( Half of these 15% organized worker's, are Government worker's )

Take Care

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:26 - ID#259400)
Web TV
Anybody out there got any experience or input on these things that sit on your tv and you use an infra red keyboard? My computer is driving me nuts and all I use it for is the internet and e-mail. I don't do any computing.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:28 - ID#43460)
Isure, I don't think demonitization matters
Conjecture 2 hypothetical countries, both with rich oil fields and lots of dollars. Call the East and West Bong. East Bong has gold. West Bong has none. They go to war against one another and the UN embargoes them, freezing their credit, Swiss accounts, etc. Which will be able to buy weapons? East Bong IMHO.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:31 - ID#290118)
Alberich - you give too much credit to grand master plans (and masters
The old country ( core of western civilization ) just couldn't hold it together any more. They were stuck in the mud and destroying themselves. It fell to their kids ( in the periphery of that core ) to pull their fat out of the fire.
Now the United States may shortly go through the same age of conflict.
But we have begotten no children who will pull our fat out of the fire.
We will face these trials alone.

This scenario is on a much larger - hemispheric or global scale as we now see with disaster aid. The US people ( not the US Government ) come to the aid of other countries and peoples when they face natural or manmade disasters. When we face the same here. We face it alone.

We can only hope that Canada, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand can stand with us - though they may have similar problems to deal with.
Our group certainly can not count on aid from anywhere else.

Our having an incompetent President and Federal Government only makes it worse. The individual state governments and "local" city or county governments, with few exceptions, are not much better and may be worse.

So I guess it boils down to the Americans - in the classic and original definition of that term - to deal with the coming hardships by ourselves.
For better or worse - that has made us what we are and hopefully will reinvigorate our American ideals - which are our great strength.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:34 - ID#373284)
Bill2j, Namaste'

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:35 - ID#242303)
I wish you had posted that piece several months and several thousands of dollars of losses ago.

It certainly seems to make sense and IMHO it will take a combined effort by the central banks to keep up the pretence of monetisation until they have unloaded some of their gold or a monetary catastrophe to prevent this inevitable decline.

Even then the latter may not do it. Would you rather have gold or bread?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:36 - ID#411112)
Bill2j on my back on the couch lurking at Kitco on my big screen tv....WebTv rules


(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:37 - ID#350194)
It was great fun reading the warped reasoning of Mr. Suljar Mulji in that article that you posted at 16:05. Needed a good laugh. Thanks. One thing though, I can never figure ouit how people write such twaddle when they actually are aware of facts such as "... for over 250 years, the monetary price of gold was fixed at ( 3,17 shillings and 4 pence. The controller of mints, who happened at the time to be Isaac Newton, had fixed this price." Did Mr. Mulji then go on to do a study of the relative stabilty of the world's monetary regimes during this impressively long period compared to the chaos of the last 30 years? No.
Keep up the good work Isure, I really LOVE reading these scholarly reports written by such outstanding minds as Mr. Mulji. Gold $90? ROTFLOL!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:40 - ID#255151)

The Webtv is great if you just want to use the internet. You can't download stuff or save files with it, but you get e mail and can bookmark about 600 URLs. Also doesn't do JAVA. Very easy to use and pretty reliable. Last I heard you can get one for $99. There is nothing like sitting in a recliner, sipping a cold one, and watching Armageddon unfold!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:40 - ID#259400)
That is the first sensible and rational article I have ever read on the price of gold. I see all this voodoo stuff written about gold and here comes a guy from India of all places who hits the nail on the head. I look at what is going on and I see central bankers trying to divest themselves of gold in a manner that won't cause the market to collapse over night but to string it out over some time. Other people see the same thing and they see central bankers trying to artificialy hold down the price of gold below it's natural level for some reason that no one can state. No one asks the logical question which is if gold had any value why are the central banks driving down the price of something they hold in inventory? That makes no sense at all. However if you look at it as trying to unwind a position over a period of time so as to cause the least disruption that is another whole matter.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:41 - ID#290118)
Dave in CO - yes I am in Colorado too.
I don't mind those who view this mountain fastness as a cold, barren, desolate, dry, thin of air, remote, wilderness {in the old definition of that term}. I plan on riding out the worst up here. If .9999 of the population believe only a fool would come to the mountains for refuge - GREAT! I just hope .99 of those already here LEAVE during Y2K for home, lowlands or wherever. That will make defense and survival here much easier.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:47 - ID#288295)
Bill2j @ WebTV
It's great.....and now they have finally fixed my biggest problem with the original system, being able to cut and paste. The IR keyboard is a little smaller than on a PC, so it takes a while to adapt to it, but on balance a great tool. Rob Noel is right - sitting on the sofa across the room from a big screen TV does have its advantages....zzzzzzzz

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:48 - ID#411112)
Heres a shocker YEN plunging in early trading....


(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:48 - ID#242303)
I have been on this site for a year and a half. I have heard excellent arguments for why the price of gold SHOULD go up and why the markets should collapse.

Yes they have influenced my desicions, yes it completely my fault and and most of us are hurting badly on this forum, but if what Mr Malji says is even near the mark, and we get another big drop, there will even be more pain on this forum.

Eventually this hyperbolic market will run out of hot air- but will gold then go up. It is certainly NOT a given.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:53 - ID#434298)
Bill2J - thanks for the great url!!!!!
Sudhir Mulji makes our point quite clearly.
for those who don't like to scroll back down...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:53 - ID#411112)
Auric...for $299.00 the new one you can surf the net and watch TV at the same time,,,What a Country


(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:56 - ID#434298)
Oops - Sorry Isure - 'Twas YOU that lead us to that Golden jewel
It's just that it fits so well with Bill2j's arguments that I hastened to quickly to pay thanks for the URL post.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 18:57 - ID#373284)
Alright, I'll make the call right now, round up some friends and take all the gold
off your hands for anybody who wants to sell...just let me know...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:02 - ID#411112) would also have to believe Peter Arnet is a honest reporter

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:10 - ID#412273)
Japan and the Euro
I just talked to someone who has just returned from Japan and they said that the Japanese are deathly afraid of the Euro. This implies tht the japanese will not dump US Bonds if by doing so the Dollar is hurt.

This is what the poster Another has been saying.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:10 - ID#259400)
Wizened, there is about as much chance of gold going up like a rocket as there is of me winning a beauty contest. The other night I alluded to a tribe in africa and this seems like an appropriate time to repeat myself. There is this tribe in africa that has been holding rituals for 2000 years now honoring something that no one knows about. As I understood it all their rituals and ceremonys are in honor of and awaiting the return of "the dark star". Seems they know about some star out in the system that is invisible but is still there nevertheless. For 2000 years they have keeping the faith and awaiting the return of something that cannot be seen. Same here on Kitco. Like those natives in Africa they keep the faith, hold the rituals and pray for something that will never happen. The line of reasoning goes along the lines of "but it happened once upon a time, why won't it happen again"? There are two ways to make money in gold. One i as a trader. Gold does not go down in a straight line. There will be counter trend rallys in a downward trend. I bought a lot of FGLDX back in January at 2.24 and sold it later in the spring for 2.76. The XAY went from about 60 to 90 during that period of time. The XAU is back down to 60 and headed for 30. BUT before it gets to 30 it will probably rally to about 75. I expect to dump a pile in at 62-64 and hopefully sell off at 74-76. Long tern gold will go to below 100. BUT not in a straight line. The other way to make money with gold is to do what the lurkers on Kitco do. Short it. If you know something is a downtrend short it. The shorts have made a killing in the last two years. They will in the next two. I am not as familiar with shorting but if the XAU get to 75 again you can bet your sweet bippy I will get familiar. You gotta rememeber that for every Kitco poster talking up gold there are probably 10 lurkers trying to figure out how safe it is to be short. The talkers lose money and wait and pray and the lurkers make money and listen.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:21 - ID#434298)
The POG is headed DOWN until Y2K takes it up then it's DOWN again
See my Sun Jul 12 1998 14:27 for more on that prognostication

CBs, mining companies, governments, and other powers in the world are trying to keep the POG *up* while they unload their Golden any way they can as they keep up a paper facade to convince otherwise.
See my Wed Jul 08 1998 13:24 for more on this subject

Gold is only the most recent of the physical moneys to go
More such passings are in the offing...
See my Wed Jul 08 1998 19:29

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:26 - ID#434298)
To make it clear what I am holding or not - as some wish posters here would do
I hold no Gold other than family heirlooms.
I shall be most wary of buying more.
But I suppose I could swallow a US$20 loss
on one 1/10 oz golden eagle when it drops to US$15.
Maybe it is worth the gamble to have a few.

SILVER - on the other hand - I have
and am buying more as I can afford it.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:28 - ID#368244)
Any of you that have read any of my previous posts, know that I am a gold-bug to the core. My only purpose in posting the URL pertaining to central banks and gold selling is to show that we are up against some very powerful forces. In any forum it is a necessity that we look at all sides of an equasion. I am in the process of losing considerable money in both options and gold stocks. Neither of which I believe to be a sensible or viable way to invest in precious metals. I believe both of these are a rigged game.

I wish that I had come to this conclusion a few hundred thousand dollars ago. While I believe that the precious shall be precious again, it may take a series of disasterous events that are beyond the control of all governments and purveyors of such instruments. I am buying physical and will continue to do so as the price falls. It is my prayer, that when these events occur, that us gold-bugs can gain some satisfaction from it. Although this may not be the case.

This is a troubling world in which we live, and every time I read Revelations it's like picking up the Sunday paper. Federal identification numbers and a president that seems determined to fulfill every verse.

Sorry about delivering this "downer". Things usually work out in the end.

Your friend, Isure

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:32 - ID#259400)
The Japanese are not afraid of the Euro per se. They are afraid of anything that might affect the health of the US economy. That is also the reason they will not sell US Bonds. The Japanese and the US are locked in a death embrace that goes back 40 years. They need our markets. Reduce the huge Japanese exports to our markets and their economy shrivels to nothing. The price of having free and unfettered access to our market is that they must accept and hold our debt. On the other hand we need them to hold our debt. Without that we could not run the huge budget deficits we have. Reduce the deficits and you reduce the GDP and the general standard of living. We have purchased an artificialy high standard of living over the years by running up the debt. On a nation level we "maxed out the credit cards". Now we are locked in this dance of death with the Japanese. Neither can stop dancing without the other falling.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:32 - ID#242303)
Until now I have been the one the shorts have been making money off. I am certainly not putting my toes in that murky pond agian either way.

Truth is I have lost faith in the yellow stuff, not that I have any faith, either in the paper issued by the latest internet darling that trades at 60 times future earnings or all the other pile of #=&* that people can't get enough of.

Don't go against your fundamental beliefs- that's what I have learnt. Ididn't think twice about gold until my broker convinced me two years ago that inflation was coming. I was a reluctant buyer, but once you buy it is difficult to admit you picked the wrong side, and so you compound your mistake.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:37 - ID#350194)
25 Year Olds and the Price of Gold
Bill2j - I don't disagree with much of what you say in your 18:20 but I fail to see the relevance when you say "...If you took the first 100 people aged 25 off the street I doubt if you would find one that even knew that their government owns gold. If they did they would make no connection between gold and money. They would wonder why they were hoarding all that jewellry. Don't believe me, go talk to some young
people." I don't disagree, but to conclude that the ignorance of young Americans, Canadians, etc. will have a short term ( or long term for that matter ) effect on the POG, seems a stretch. You could have truthfully made that same statement at any time in the last 500 years.
While it is true that Gold has been in a prolonged bear market as of late, ( for a multitude of reasons that have been discussed in detail on this forum ) , I am truly amazed at how readily some who have just posted lap up Mr. Mulji's pablum without critical analysis. For instance he mentioned that the central banks have such a enormous supply that if it were to flood the markets the price would drop to $90. Is that so? And yet he also states that the CB's hold only 37/150 of the above ground supply. So, if the banks were to sell this supply, what is to prevent the holders of the other 113/150 from buying up all that the banks have to sell so as to maintain the value of their investment? AND, who is to say that this massive sale would not also bring about a sea change in the minds of those who are presently in the dark as to Gold's long term desireability?
Who is to say that the price will not again skyrocket as it has in the past when its true worth became apparent? ( eg. Early 30's, Early 70's. ) Gold $90? I think not.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:39 - ID#373284)
Q&A page for folks who have the same questions you and I do...RE: Y2K

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:41 - ID#259400)
Nah, don't look at that way. If I buy a stock and hold it, that is to say "go long", I am betting my belief that stock will go up in price and I will make money. If I "borrow" a stock and sell it at today's price I am betting my faith that stock will go down and I will make a profit. The problem is the people tend to think of shorting as being "immoral". It's not. It is no more moral or immoral than going long. It is only the other side of the coin. Shoot, lets face facts, we are all pretty sure gold is going down, why not short it? Where you got off on the wrong track was on the inflation issue. By every measurement known to man we are staring deflation in the teeth and maybe some pretty serious deflation. Money can be made on the downside too. Keep the faith.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:41 - ID#242303)
Isure and Gold stocks
Over the last few years I too have come to the conclusion that Gold stocks exist to enrich their managers and promoters.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:46 - ID#242303)
I forgot another 2 important rules I learnt in this trauma.. "How easy it is to lose money, which was so hard to earn". "Brokers make money either way. Whether you lose or gain".

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:47 - ID#242303)
Enouhg postings by me. I'm off for a walk..
to contemplate that money isn't everything...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:52 - ID#259400)
Mr. Mooney, with all due respect I must disagree with the first part of your last post. The rest I'll let go as anything is possible and for all I know you may well be right. BUT, when it comes to the general level of knowledge of our youth I must disagree strongly. I am very sure that never in history has a whole generation of youth been so ignorant of the workings of money. A 25 year old of 1000 years ago, 500 years ago, 100 years ago or even 50 years ago would have instantly trusted a gold coin and instantly distrusted a piece of paper money. Todays young people only associate gold with jewelry. Money to them is not even paper money but plastic cards. Trust me, the government would have hard a hard time selling of all their gold and issuing only paper money 100 years ago. Now, it wouldn't even make page 26 of the paper. Shoot, I am amazed at how many young people don't even understand the workings of credit cards. I have a building full of young people that charge and pay the minimum, charge and pay the minimum and have 5 or 6 cards with huge balances that they are paying the minimum on. The evils of usury was preacehed from the pulpits weekly 100 years ago. When was the last time you heard a preacher rant about interest rates?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:56 - ID#20748)
Yen is plummeting and
so is gold, August gold down 1.60.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 19:59 - ID#335190)
July 12, 1998

Russian PM, IMF reach no concrete loan deal

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Talks between top Russian officials and a delegation of the International Monetary Fund failed on Sunday to produce a multi-billion-dollar loan deal sought by Moscow to ease a financial and economic crisis.

But the government press service put a brave face on the outcome of some five hours of talks between Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and John Odling-Smee, head of the IMF department responsible for the former Soviet Union.

The optimistic government statement appeared aimed at calming financial markets, which have been anxiously awaiting the outcome of the talks.

Moscow has also dipped heavily into its own coffers, depleting its foreign currency and gold reserves to $15.1 billion by July 3 from $25 billion in the middle of last year.

Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov this week estimated Russia's total state debt at $200 billion and said every third ruble of the budget goes towards servicing debt.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:00 - ID#228128)
I wanna go short on the German stock market.
I can't find an index option for the Frankfurt stock market index. Can anyone suggest another way of shorting German stocks?

P.S. Yen at 143.9. Gold down -.20.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:03 - ID#228128)
Gold now down $2.10

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:04 - ID#335190)
Tokyo markets brace for wild day after Japan poll

TOKYO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks and the yen were expected to take a battering on Monday after Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered a huge setback in an election widely viewed as a referendum on the government's ability to pull the country out of recession.

In early Asian trading, the yen had already lost nearly two yen against the dollar from Friday's New York close, to trade at around 143 yen to the U.S. currency. Traders forecast a test of 145 yen later.

The LDP's disastrous showing, which almost certainly forebodes the end of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's administration, throws into doubt prospects for a series of economic policy measures, including a scheme to help banks work at least 77 trillion yen ( $538 billion ) in problem loans off their books and permanent tax cuts.

Currency traders in Tokyo predicted the yen would take further blows as Tokyo trading gets underway on Monday, as the ruling party's stunning election setback is expected to stall policy momentum, exacerbating Japan's economic downturn.

"This puts everything into question," said Yasuo Ueki, general manager at Nikko Securities. "Stocks are going to fall hard."

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:10 - ID#335190)
Japan's elections could spell trouble for Wall Street

Profit growth for big companies is expected to be little better than in the first quarter, when it was the weakest in more than
six years. That makes the outlook for earnings in the second half of the year crucial.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:11 - ID#254112)
@Squirrel, gagnrad,Mooney
Thanks for your reply. I know it seems as if I give too much credit to Master Plans.
I do not have hurt feelings. I just do not think Churchill acted because he wanted to protect any innocent peoples. There were too many suppressed peoples and cultures, suppressed by the British Empire on which he could have exercised his altruism, if he had any. I think he gave a damn about the Tchechs and the Poles. His motivation was driven by something else.
Of course he also gave a s*** about the Germans except that they were strategically in the way.
One of the reasons why I think the Masterplan theory is valid, I learned from studying the history of the First and the Second Rome, and how the long term planners, the priests of Byzanz ( i.e., the Second Rome ) had already the Third Rome, Moskwa, in place, when the last Emperor of Konstantinopel ( i.e., Byzanz ) fell in the street battle against the conquering Turks.

The large scale planning of ideologically/regligiously based empires is not an invention of the 20th century.

Back in 1983 I saw the Oratorium "Iwan the Terrible" from Sergei Prokowjew ( music ) and Sergej Eisenstein ( text ) .
This Oratorium basically glorifies Stalin and put the roots of the Moskowite Empire into historic perspective:
I quote:
According to our eternal order
this crown of the Zar becomes married to
Iwan Wassiljewitch
and will be declared to be the Zar of Moskwa
crowned by God
and the sole ruler of greater Russia.

Two Roms have fallen.
But the third one

There will not be a fourth one ever.
And in this Third Rome,
the Empire of Moskwa,
I will be the sole ruler,
I only I alone.

( end of quote )

That's how Sergej Eisenstein, the Hollywood trained film maker ( who made a lot of propaganda films to justify the killing of the "Kulaken" ) , put Stalin's dictaturship into historic perspective.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:18 - ID#113316)
Market Value vs. Long Term Economic Value
The current market value of anything you buy or own is based upon today's supply and demand, i.e., it is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay you for it. No more, no less. However, for extended periods of time, the current market value can be more or less than the item's long-term intrinsic value. Regardless, in the final analysis, the market value must gravitate to the true long-term intrinsic value.

In 1989, Japanese stocks and real estate had appreciated to values that were far in excess of the intrinsic value of those assets. Japan was the economic powerhouse. Japanese businessman were thought to be the most astute and wealthy of any in the world. The Japanese business model was one to be studied and duplicated. Unfortunately, real estate values, for example, got so high that there was nothing you could do with property that made economic sense other than to hope to sell it to someone else at an even higher price. The bubble burst in December, 1989 and today the Japanese stock market has lost two-thirds of its market value and real estate has fallen by double digits for seven years straight. It is interesting to compare the comments made in 1988 and 1989 about the Japanese markets to the comments that are being made today about the US markets. Deja Vu.

Despite all of the factual information that is presented on this site, it never ceases to amaze me how unfamiliar so many are about the facts. A very academic evaluation of the intrinsic value of gold was one such presentation, and I will try to dig it out to repost it. The conclusion of the evaluation was the long-term intrinsic value of gold today, expressed in dollars, is about $630. Sooner or later the POG will move to this level, and likely will exceed it to the upside as the POG itself becomes overvalued.

With a bull market that has lasted over 15 years now, it is no surprise that people have become confident, perhaps arrogant, that financial assets can replace gold as the ultimate currency reserve. The article that was posted earlier today once again states the demonetarization of gold. This continues even in the face of the most serious currency crisis the world has ever known. I suppose I don't have to point out that there has been no collapse of currencies that have significant gold reserves. On the other hand, currencies without gold reserves including those that have sold their reserves ( e.g., Australia ) had seen at best declines and at worst collapses. Even with the empirical evidence that when Korea experienced the collapse of their currency and financial markets, what did they call on as the reliable store of value - gold! Dines gave the best advice to CBs - get the message, adequate gold reserves equates to stable currencies.

Another fact that I continually see misquoted is the one that CBs are big SELLERS of gold. Contrary to what is often said, CB SALES of gold have not materially changed from year to year for some time, with NET SALES in the range of 400 tons per annum. What has changed ( and has coincided with the weakness of gold ) is the rapid escalation of gold leases. There is a significant difference in the two transactions. When a CB sells the gold, it is gone forever. When a CB leases gold, the CB expects it to be repaid sometime in the future. Last year CBs leased twice as much gold as they sold. With current demand outstripping new supply by a wide margin, with the gap filled by CB sales and leases, where is the gold going to come from if the CBs ever stop leasing new gold out or, heaven forbid, decide to reduce the aggregate amount of leased gold?

I find it interesting that most articles that present dire predictions about the POG going to $200 or less, like the one posted earlier, present almost no factual information about supply and demand or the cost of new supply from mines. They don't address the fact that although the POG is in a bear market expressed in dollars it is in a bull market when it is expressed in many other currencies. We are in the midst of a currency crisis. When will it end, I cannot predict. However, IMHO, if CBs renewed their commitment to maintaining adequate gold reserves, the crisis would end sooner than otherwise. I do believe that if the dollar does go to 200 yen as Martin Armstrong predicts, we better be prepared to ride around in imported Japanese cars and I sure wouldn't want to own GM or Ford stock.

I have been accumulating physical silver for three years now and gold since the beginning of last year. I have also been accumulating quality silver mining companies on dips since the beginning of last year. I have not yet purchased any pure gold stocks yet, but now is about the time to do so. IMHO, any purchase is buying these assets at well below their intrinsic value. I only hope I can complete my positions before the prices explode to the upside!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:20 - ID#20748)
The Yen

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:20 - ID#251268)
Isure and Frusrated for the help,got the charts version!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:24 - ID#335190)
TIME Daily

May 22-24, 1998

Deep Economic Impact

Cut to Moscow. The Kremlin. When Asia's chaos reaches Red Square, the fiery young Prime Minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, is there to meet it. With the Russian stock market in meltdown and the ruble under attack, the country's Central Bank has run through its last $14 billion in gold and hard currency reserves propping up the currency. Placating angry miners and teachers with even modest amounts of back wages while meeting payment on GKO government bonds paying at 150% interest rates has depleted the Treasury. The government is broke.

Counting on the storied patience of the Russian people, Kiriyenko decided to slash the government costs by cutting out gas and oil subsidies, and the Russian populace, cold and starving, has snapped.

Wielding a megaphone and live on CNN, Kiriyenko repeats his pledge of the last week again and again from the Kremlin balcony: "We will not devalue the ruble! We will not devalue the ruble!" Between pledges, he shouts over his shoulder to his fidgeting staff members. "Wake Yeltsin! Wake Yeltsin!" But Yeltsin is drunk again, passed out at his desk, and cannot be roused. It is difficult for the proud young Kiriyenko, but the time has come to apply to the IMF in earnest. The $700 million tranche will be nowhere near enough; Russia will need $20 billion, and soon.

John Odling-Smee, the IMF's chief Russia expert, is already in Moscow on a planned visit to discuss the tranche, but alas, he does not need to call Michel Camdessus to answer Kiriyenko's plea. The IMF, rescuer of nations, is nearly as broke as Russia is. Odling-Smee calls the White House.

Though it is now past midnight in Washington, President Clinton is in the Oval Office for some reason. And though he hates to beg as much as Kiriyenko, when Clinton hangs up with Odling-Smee he makes a call of his own: he must ask Congress for the $18 billion in reserve funds that House Republicans, convinced that the IMF policies are in need of an overhaul, have so far refused to give.

Dick Armey is asleep when the President calls . . . ( continued )

1 of 2

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:27 - ID#434298)
Only a Worldwide War could put some wind in the sales of Gold
Depression won't do it, capital will only flee to stronger fiat money {en or Euro} or to physical assets - tools, equipment, real estate, groceries, etc. Gold is no longer considered by the majority.
Bill2J is correct that it is viewed as jewelry, cavity plugs, and electronic contacts. It is an anachonism collected and bidded up like antiques at a country fair.

Unless you goldbugs can convince the masses that gold is worth more than the above uses then you are wasting your breath preaching to the choir. Goldbugs regard any talk of the POG going down as blasphemy. They are perennially bullish on Gold. They may not realize that they are thus bearish in the extreme on human civilization. We have seen lots of classic reasons come to pass for Gold to increase in price. Yet it lies there like a shell-shocked trooper who just wants to roll over and sleep.

I perceive efforts to keep the POG UP while the mines and CBs and other large holders sell as much present and future physical and paper as they can. Like a limp soldier propped up in the ramparts to deceive the enemy into thinking there is more life in the fort than there really is.
The fort is nearly empty. The Gold is gone.

Does anyone have a breakdown of the actual ownership or use of the 100,000 or so tonnes that the CBs do not own?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:29 - ID#317193) took the words out of my mouth...
Where is old F* when you need a positive word!

Went gold...yes. Change...coming to a town near you soon.


(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:34 - ID#251238)
Armstrong on front page NY times $ bull market
"A Great Big Bounce for Bucks & Bonds" articale all about Armstrong who say $ in new bull market going into 2002. Cites $9 trillion yen deregulation with $1 headed into US bonds will drive long rates to 4.75%, Russian debt in $70 billion and likely default will send $ higher since US has only 10% of all loans Germany as $30 billion alone. Euro chaos is sending dollar higher as Germans flock to $ since Euro cannot be valued equal to the strongest currency, therefore Germans see Euro as weaker than Dmark and are buying dollar investments, He goes on to say European stocks likely to crash, US likely to go through minor correction of 20% before recovering once again. This is front page NY times business section

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:35 - ID#290281)
What to Watch: Craig Corcoran June 30/98
What to Watch: Within the 1183 to 1234 range, the cash S&P500 should complete its manic bull market run off last October's lowpoint. Expect a good news event, such as a perceived resolution to the Asian deflation environment, to coincide with the final days of U.S. stock market advance. The onset of a 1929 or 1987 style market collapse likely awaits a climax top in July or early-August.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:35 - ID#210127)
Ping III

Coming to a world near you...


(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:36 - ID#350194)
The Box
Bill2j - I stand corrected. Your last post was more correct than my previous statement ( concerning the last five hundred years ) . One small correction, ( in honour of today's World Cup soccer match - the trophy apparently is 18 kt Gold! ) . When you say, "...Todays young people only associate gold with jewelry", I feel that because they still have some examples of Gold as being valuable, they do still know that it is WORTH money, but you are right, they do not understand that GOLD IS MONEY. BTW - Do You?
Because I have been going on in this vein, ( a rich one at that ) , for the last couple of hours, I should make it clear that I am not one of those that some have alluded to as thinking that gold can only go up from here. But I would like to point out that your recent statements seem to suggest that YOU believe that Gold is doomed to a continual bear market. One problem. Unless you believe, ( as the early communists did ) that gold will eventually be used for urinals, the bear market must, at some point in time, have an end, in which case the reverse of everything you have recently said will become reality.
The Box I mention above alludes to the range that Gold has maintained for the last six months; $280-310. When this is broken either on the low side or the high side I believe we will see a rapid large movement in that same direction. If the box is broken on the low side we may see a 'spike' low put in place. This was something of which I and others here were speaking of about 10 months ago and as it never happened I have been wary of any subsequent movements to the upside. Bear markets don't always end in this spiking movement but, as I understand it, the main other scenario would be a period of very quiet sideways 'flat-lining' price action. This was exactly the way Silver put in its bottom around the $3.60 area a few years back.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:39 - ID#434298)
My apologies to chas, Aurator and others
who are trying to put some wind in the sales of Gold.
When the average feller has Gold and Silver coin in his pocket that he can USE to buy groceries, mechanic work or a night on the town THEN we will see some solid, widespread confidence in Gold.
Right now Gold, for most folks who are not in the business of international arms sales ( or other international enterprises ) Gold is about as useful as extra knots in a 2x4.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:44 - ID#347447)
Isure 19:28
Far from a "downer," your post was an inspiration and a wise adjustment of "faith." Let the "beast" have his best shot. When he punches himself out, gold will have its licks.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:44 - ID#259400)
To me it seems that everyone is overlooking one important fact. We can sit and discuss for hours how much or how little the central banks have left in their vaults but in so doing we have lost sight of why it was there in the first place. The role of gold in the past was to settle international debts and to support foreign operations such as the military. If you are England in the 1800's and you have a large standing army in India you need to ship gold to India so the army can purchase the goods and serices necessary to support the army and meet the payroll. Same with foreign debts. The sheik of Oman in the 1800's would want to be paid in gold not paper currency. However when was the last time anyone heard of a gold train being put together to pay some foreign debt. Gold has not left the vaults since WWII and most likely never will. The cost of trying to transport a train load of gold to some foreign country would be ridiculous. Easier just to punch in a few digits in a computer and it's all over. Gold lost it's value when it's lost it's job settling international debts. Since then it just sits there and the central banks don't know how to get rid of it gracefully.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:45 - ID#347447)
I have it on good authority that the combined central banks of the world have only 30 ounces of gold left in their coffers. Hang on sloopy.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:57 - ID#401460)
Charts on!

Looks like some one needed a little spending money to get out of town.

Hey All! Bart has the chart turned on!
It's Sunday PM / Monday AM, get ready to rumble! LET HER RIP!


(Sun Jul 12 1998 20:57 - ID#259400)
If one were to ask me to try and predict the future course of gold I would start out with it's current role in the big picture. Up until very recently ( historically speaking ) gold was the final arbiter of foreign debt between central banks. Gold wagons and gold trains transported the stuff all over the world and that was how central banks settled their debts. Until I see gold trains running again I must conclude the central banks are settling their debts with digital currency. As long as I believe that I must conclude that gold is only taking up storage space and costing money to warehose. That being the case I conclude that gold is in a long and slow downhill slide until the central banks can divest themselves of it. I don't know what the bottom is but I will give a likely range. I think 100-140 an oz would be a likely target in the next couple of years with the usual stair step type of movement in between.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:00 - ID#290232)
Why are metals dropping in overseas trading?
Russia is going down the tubes, the Yen is crashing as I post this message, yet metals are going down? So who's trading metal for paper
tonight? Something does not make sense.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:02 - ID#412286)
Martin Armstrong May 1997
Gold to bottom in 6/98 on way to minimum of 1200 by 03. Stks to top in 7/98 if no bear before. Silver to go to 3 bucks. Dollar is gonna get smashed cause everyone own em and new reserve currencies are a statrtin. BYE BYE DOLLAR...BYE BYE RUBIN...just in time..HMMMM

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:02 - ID#36978)
This is a joyous day........
Because this is the first day the postings are bullish. I have lurked since Christmas ( when Mama bot me this puter cause she thot I needed one ) , and finally posted a couple messages since the swamp trash disappeared so that rational people can speak to each other. I have posted no less than four times that the POG will not rise until the last tired long throws in the towel. Look back at the last several hours of postings -- these are tired long words speaking in "a capella" contemplating doing exactly that, and as we speak, gold is selling off in Asia.

When enough tired longs do that at one time, the blowoff that is so needed to get closure to this bear will be upon us like an enema. For the first time I, the ultimate un-emotional trader that doesn't care which way the price goes cause I am going with it -- ( the trend is your friend ) , can now see light at the end of the tunnel to cover shorts and go long on the blowoff, when it comes, and change direction.

This is indeed a joyous day. My powder is dry and I am ready.

By the way, Alderich, the war is OVER, its been in all the papers.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:04 - ID#412286)
The dollar is not reacting a great deal to bullish news.OH OH

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:05 - ID#350194)
Everything you said in that last post rings true. ( FYE - Rings true is an expression from days past which was used to denote that a precious metal coin was authentic as evidenced by the sound it made when struck or dropped on a hard surface. ) Observation of recent events seems to suggest that we will still have sufficient time to stock up. At the same time I really pity those that are privilged to be able to read all the evidence freely put before them, on this and other forums, and yet they can not see past the immediate trends far enough to realise that the present is not permanent. With this comment, I say 'a bientot' to all this evening.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:05 - ID#335190)
July 12, 1998

Plant shutdowns could hit GM Canada: analyst

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Reports claiming General Motors will slash 50,000 jobs once it settles two crippling strikes in Michigan are merely so much hogwash, says the head of the Canadian Auto Workers union.

"It's a number that's been pulled out of the air," says Buzz Hargrove, blaming the statistic on industry analysts with too much time on their hands.

But some experts insist the threat of layoffs in Canada is very real,

"You don't throw money into a plant where there's no market," Reid says. Hargrove says he's heard that doom scenario before.

"If they ( GM ) are really serious about getting competitive, they should be putting more work in the Quebec plant and the other Canadian plants as well," he says, noting that labor costs in Canada are actually cheaper than in the United States.

Still, Hargrove admits it will be tough to avoid layoffs if GM continues to lose business. "When you're losing market share, then even the best plants are impacted."

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:05 - ID#43349)
It is not that gold is going down so much as it is that the dollar is going up. Look at gold in yen instead of dollars and everything is great.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:07 - ID#31867)
Grizz, Namaste' you keep making the nebulous statement, "gold is no longer
considered by the majority." The majority of whom?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:07 - ID#228128)
A good washout for gold is a healthy thing (unless you are long now)
The rallies in 85 and 93 began after a significant spike down in gold. If we get one here over the next couple of weeks, it will provide a fairly safe entry point. My model has been suggesting for the past couple of weeks that either the bottom is in or we have one more downstroke. I've been holding off going long ( am currently short Homestake from 10 3/4 ) . I'd really like to see the stochastics and RSI bottom out hard before venturing back in.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:08 - ID#215208)
re: Channels
jonesy - Glad you find them useful. And to answer your question, I've been maintaining these charts for about a year now. In the last few months I think I am finally learning how to use them properly, and am starting to make money. The "learning" experience was expensive, but I am roughly back to even, and the trend is in the right direction. Best of luck to you.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:13 - ID#31867)
6Pak, Namaste'
Ready when you are, Russia is ready for the taking...oris for President!

Bully Beef
(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:14 - ID#259261)
I don't think anybody here can make a significant statement about what the market or gold
is going to do. It is not that the expertise isn't here or the logic. It is simply that the whole system is running on emotion right now. Not that this is a bad thing... it is just that it is a system run by people who are doing a point- counter point thing ,trying to keep everything under control so the whole system doesn't break down. Can they keep it up? I don't know. But the thing that causes it to all unravel could be an event that is totally inoccuous ( Sp. ) . The Treasurer of the U.S. and his wife might have marital problems and he might commit suicide or Bill Clinton may have a stroke and in turn the instability could throw things into turmoil.
The big thing is ,is that things are not "as usual". Anyone who thinks that the markets won't really adjust soon are fools in my opinion. But that opinion has cost me money and pride. The world was never logic.Wars weren't caused nor won on logic. Logic never caused men or women or societies to do anything. The world is emotion and it can whip up like a tornado and flatten everything in it's path. Batten down the hatches.
" The best laid plans of mice and men, gan oft aglay."
Go Gold!

The Hatt
(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:17 - ID#294232)
Gold getting ready to lift off!
But not before the fools holding paper begin to smell the smoke and feel the heat! The downside risk of yahoo compared to gold makes me very comfortable with my gold position. The house of cards are about to fall as the Dow Jones continues its trend of Distribution!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:18 - ID#210114)
Bully Beef
You are right. Emotion ( greed and fear ) rules.

Price of gold to languish until a ) Asia recovers and or b ) U.S. falls in a screaming heap.

Who knows.

The whole financial 'system' is in a state of turmoil. I hope its bad enough for the world to sit down and work out some proper financial arrangements but not bad enough to statr a depression.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:19 - ID#28594)
Grizz--re: "Gold is no longer viewed as money"...

"Money" is no longer viewed as money! Medium of exchange is a piece of plastic; everything else is digital and therefore ephemeral.

That the three functions of "money" are telescoped into a single flying electron [medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value] is arcana to most Americans. We are a people whose "living memory history" has given us a belief in the efficacy of government. We have never experienced, or heard from the mouths of kith and kin, that nature's laws apply within the borders of the US, as they do in Malaysia, Rwanda, Bosnia, on ad infinitum.

For Americans, everything has always worked, which means that everything WILL always work. In which case, plastic and electrons are GREAT! It is called Faith...

i don't have a lot of it, where governments are concerned...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:22 - ID#210114)
Sorry to be negative again but.........
Gold will languish for at least another 6 months IMVHO. Might see a rally next year if gold production falls and central banks stop selling.

Waiting patiently for next year.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:22 - ID#28939)
Like I've said before, Yen-Dollar, T-bonds, gold joined at the hip right now

I've been around long enough too to recognize some extreme sentiment when I see it. After a three and a half year long bull market in the US dollar we now start to see commercials on CNN advertising how easy it is for the average person on the street to make money in forex call options on the dollar. I think it is time to watch closely for a turn. When everyone is in who is left to buy?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:24 - ID#350194)
Kitcoites Unite!
Sorry - Saw 6pak and had to come back. 6pak and all other Toronto area Kitcoites! We will be having a dinner meeting at 7:00 PM on Thursday July 30th at a downtown Toronto eatery to hold discussion with Kitco's ambassador in Israel ( Reify ) upon his arrival in Canada. All welcome! Six attendees so far. Further details e-mail the moonman at:

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:25 - ID#432112)
What's That Smell???...FEAR!
I sleep well at night ( Grizz notwithstanding ) .
Go Long and Prosper!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:27 - ID#335190)
Tokyo's Nikkei stock average opens lower after poll

TOKYO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - The benchmark Nikkei stock average fell at the opening on Monday after Sunday's resounding election setback by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's Liberal Democratic Party, traders said.

The LDP won 44 seats in the Upper House poll, far less than their pre-election strength of 61 seats, throwing into jeopardy key economic policy initiatives.

As of 0019 GMT, the benchmark index had dropped 279.97 points, or 1.74 percent, to 15,810.09.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:31 - ID#412286)
I would like to make it. Let me recommend for an eatery if it stll exists..The Leechee Garden in China Town. The Leechee BoBo appetizer platter is excellent. Or Ed's Warehouse down near the exchange used to be good..still there?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:32 - ID#434298)
The majority of the people in this county.
The majority of people in this country.
The majority of the people in the world.
The majority of people who shop in convenience stores.
Pick any of the above.
Outside the circle of goldbugs and
speculators/traders in the financial casino
Gold is an esoteric luxury that is seen in jewelry,
teeth, and contacts on electronic components.

I am giving benefit of the statistics to goldbugs.
Of folks I encounter the figure is more like 9 of 10.

P.S. I keep hoping to commonly buy groceries with Gold.
I agree that any new Gold coins should not be denominated
in dollars, or any other current currency.
Perhaps only in grains of .9999 fine. Period.
In my little burg this afternoon I bought US33 worth of groceries. They took up four of those puny plastic bags. When I got home I repacked them into a standard PAPER grocery bag like packers did when I was a kid packing groceries. This US$33 filled ONE well-packed classic grocery bag.
( I was a little heavy on the meat and cheese but no cigs )
Thus my standard of comparison is as follows:
One 1/10oz golden eagle = One paper sack of groceries.

But then I guess the majority of large gold holders don't shop for groceries. They send the hired help down to do it for them.
Like President Bush who didn't know about grocery store scanners.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:34 - ID#373284)
Grizz, Namaste' can's let you get away with
"The majority in the world...NOT TRUE...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:36 - ID#335190)
Mooney @ 21:24
Got the message Mooney. Thanks, Take Care.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:39 - ID#434298)
SDRer - I agree that even "Money" isn't money anymore
Gold succumbed to paper currency ( greenbacks in US ) .
Paper currency succumbed to checks ( more paper )
Checks are succumbing to credit cards ( have in some places )
Credit cards are succumbing to electronic transfers
( which include mail order credit card orders -
shucks you could memorize your number and expiration date
and cut up the card - safer that way )
What is next - maybe a wish and a prayer.

PS. my last post on majorities was in response to tolerant1

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:44 - ID#434298)
tolerant1 - restore my faith in humanity
What percentage of people in the world own gold beyond a little bit of jewelry, gold fillings, and old coins passed down from grandma?
What is the breakdown of the 100,000 tonnes not held by CBs?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:45 - ID#242300)
The paper chase
When they start selling the rallies on the Dow, will the big boys hang it up or will they pull another BULLwinkle. Rubin: Hey Billy watch me pull the Yen out of a slump.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:47 - ID#300202)
ur 9/10 appears to be an overstatement. I preach the Gold Gospel to my
customers on a daily basis. I have yet to find disagreement. By virtue
of the question, u can solicit whatever answer u wish. Gold's gud eh
Gerr??? Yeh, Gold's gud George. Methinks Grizz u r playin' Devil's
Advocate???? Come clean Grizz.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:49 - ID#288155)
Grizz-with all due respect, hardly the MAJORITY of the people in the world...

"Entrusting wealth to non-Muslims is not allowed, but furthermore, taking a non-Muslim as a partner outside Dar al-Islam ( where we stand over them ) is extremely restricted, because they might cheat or might use our wealth in forbidden transactions.

Since paper-money is a promise of payment, can it be permitted to
trust the issuers while they hold the payment ( our property ) outside
our jurisdiction? History has also demonstrated repeatedly that paper
money has been a permanent instrument of default and cheating the
Muslims. In addition, Islamic Law does not permit the use of a
promise of payment as a medium of exchange.

Grizz, the money of preference for the Muslims is gold...and silver.
Now they are mostly poor folks, probably can't afford to shop in fancy
convenience stores, but they MUST pay their tithes with something real, not in fiat paper. And Grizz, there are a LOT of them! bbl

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:49 - ID#431366)
This is a test, in case of an emergency buy Gold (or sell it?
I could've sworn that I have been typing "Gold" and "Eagle" when speaking of the US coin of the realm. But when I put them together it ends up as golden eagle.
Hmmmmm - gnomes operating in the back room I see.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:50 - ID#368244)
Enough is Enough

It is time for we Americans to stand up and say that the constitution of the United States of America will be defiled no more. No longer will we tolerate behavior from our government or politicians that goes against every decent and honorable thing that so many have fought and died for.

Let us give the government back to the people, the states, and let all understand that no government is greater than the sum total of the people within that government.

Listen to me, and listen well. Dark days are coming our way. If we stand together, then peace and prosperity will surely follow. If not, then America will be a country that dies from the evil within.

We have every nationality of people. Good people. People that believe in right and know wrong when they see it. But, "evil will prevail when good men stand by and do nothing."

It is truly a sad testament when our leaders can break every law and get away with it, and why.... because our love for money makes it so. Write your congressman, write your newspaper, and ask them to tell Mr. Clinton what he can do with his executive orders, and tell him it's time to abide by the laws of the land.

Gold and silver are money, because our forefathers said it was the only real money, and it's good at my business anytime.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:52 - ID#373403)
Indonesia, South Korea, now Japan, and rumblings coming from Russia. Political fallout from the Asian economic fallout. When these new leaders cannot deliver their economies out of chaos, where will they turn their anger towards? Towards those who are faring well of course.

I firmly believe that all politics is about economics. Economics is the combination of scarce resources and unlimited desires. Politics is the managing of production. Economic analysis of the Asian crisis has consistently overlooked the political fallout and consequences. Sure, Asia accounts for only 30% of our exports which only accounts for 12% of our economy but what if the Japanese decide to remilitarize in their economic desperation? What if Russia reconstitutes the USSR? What if China starts pushing around it's neighbors in order to intimidate the West? Then Asia will account for more than 4% of our economy.

On that point, 4% of our economy being affected by Asia accounts for the entire annual rate of growth of GDP. Why is that seen as not affecting our economy?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:53 - ID#373284)
grizz, Namaste' Let's put things in perspective. The majority of people on planet
Earth have never made a phone call. Now, let us begin to step away from the USA and it's satellites and look around the globe. India, gold and silver tonnage into India is at record highs. Throughout the Asian countries gold is clearly money.

Were you to walk into any shop in any of the Asian countries and or India they would gladly relieve you of your gold for their product and or service. Majority...uh huh...

Nuff said.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:56 - ID#431366)
The devil made me do it.
True I hold no Gold - I am waiting for it to sink further.
In the meantime I buy Silver.
But I am trying to root out some solid reasons for believing
that the number of paper sacks of groceries I can buy
with one 1/10 oz golden eagle will increase.
Unlike some religions where you simply must BELIEVE and HAVE FAITH
I question. Yes I once bought some golden eagles - then the asian contagion flu the coop and Gold went down!! It really shook my faith.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:56 - ID#300202)
Grizz-Just curious with no malice intended.
This is a GoldBug site. I am here simply to learn. If I detested gold-
then I wud waste my time elsewhere. What motivates u???

(Sun Jul 12 1998 21:56 - ID#310222)
......where are you, I am missing your timely observations !!


(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:11 - ID#431366)
tolerant1 and all - Namaste'
The easiest people to convince are those who are goldbugs.
The hardest to convince are
Those of us who stuck our toe in and were shocked by the cold.
Maybe we should just jump in - hypothermia never hurt anybody.

There are also a lot who have not yet tested the waters.
A lot of disparagement on this site is aimed at the sheople
who know no better than to believe in paper, stocks & plastic.

Reach them - sans charts, graphs and technical wave analysis -
and you will spawn a rebirth of monetary & political democracy.

The rest of the world may be ahead of Americans in this respect.
But it is American democracy I at least am most concerned about.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:12 - ID#280245)
Gold IS, has been, will be...
The "demonetizing" of gold has been a marvelously successful marketing ploy, superior to the former champion, American Express, who sold a credulous public on the idea of lending THEIR money to American Express, and paying AMEX to accept the loan. Brilliant!

When it suits a government, or a covey of cbs, to resurrect gold it will be done. We should be aware that pertinent decision documents out of EMU consistently label gold a momentary asset, a financial asset, and the REQUIRED asset which naughty member states MUST deposit with ECBS when they are called to account.

Gold is serving another purpose at this moment in time; it is being used as a standard of measurement to calibrate the currencies. Believe it.

Which is why worst case scenario is 269.444 if "They" demand absolute parity between the dollar and the euro...
Off to dinner!bbl

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:15 - ID#335190)
Tokyo markets open active day after Japan poll

In mid-morning trading, the yen recovered to 143.40 to the dollar after sinking as low as 144.50. As of 0056 GMT, the benchmark Nikkei average -- down almost two percent at one point -- had pared losses to trade at 15,933.27, down 0.97 percent.

Japanese government bonds were also slightly weaker.

To be sure, equity trading had taken a generally sour tone. Declining issues topped advancing issues 740 to 69, with 110 issues unchanged. Real estate and securities, two sectors that were expected to benefit from the LDP's now-jeopardised policies, led the loss column.

"The voice of the people has been heard," said Michael Wilkins, a dealer at Credit Lyonnais. "And that is a good thing for Japan."

"Any solution, other than business as usual, has potential," said one dealer.

Currency traders said the focus was now on how quickly the LDP can come up with a replacement for Hashimoto and his cabinet.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:20 - ID#373284)
grizz, Namaste' I agree 100% and it is this group of individuals that should have
the opportunity to hear and read all sides. However, I think it is safe to say that market sentiment against gold and silver will leave a great many Americans POOR.

BUY GOLD, SILVER and PLATINUM...the rest is BS manufactured by the people who are buying while they are telling you not to buy it.

PLAIN AND SIMPLE...PEOPLE holding no GOLD, SILVER or PLATINUM will lose the vast majority of whatever they consider to be their standard of living...COUNT on IT...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:24 - ID#412286)
Japanese are not going to put upn with Deficit Debt laden US crap much longer. The idea proposed by the BOJ of a Yen solution to ASIA problems is ominous for US financials and over owned US assets.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:29 - ID#373284)
Here is a good start for lurkers and,

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:30 - ID#347267)
@aj; your 08:42
Jus sos yu knows: This bear dens up in the Southern Appalachians known as the Smokies. Cant tell smoke from mountain mists hereabouts! Lots of coves and hidey holes, and God's Country for blessed rain and growin them veggies even as maybe in Arkansas. Thats why I put the SE on my moniker, aint at no 9000 ft elevation neither!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:30 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-GM to step up pressure on UAW as talks stall

Strikes at the two plants began more than a month ago and have shut down nearly all of GM's North American assembly plants, idling nearly 180,000 workers.

GM has insisted that any settlement at the two Flint plants also include deals that would prevent threatened strikes at three other facilities -- a stamping plant in Indianapolis, a brake complex in Dayton, Ohio, and an engine and powertrain components operation in Flint.

GM workers in Indianapolis voted Sunday to authorize union leaders to call a strike, joining workers at the two other plants, which did so earlier.

On Tuesday, the auto giant is expected to report that the strikes reduced second quarter net income by $1.2 billion, and UAW officials say GM has indicated that strike related costs have risen to $400 million a week.

Knechtel declined to elaborate on the new steps GM planned to take other than to say it would pursue grievances that it filed against the union about two weeks ago asking the National Labor Relations Board to declare the walkouts illegal.

The UAW's Shoemaker said the strike cannot be settled in a grievance proceeding or in the courts.

"It's clear that it's going to go on a while longer. Whether it goes on as long as 1970 remains to be seen," Shoemaker said, referring to the UAW's 67-day national walkout against GM.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:32 - ID#347267)
@aj; your 08:42
Jus sos yu knows: This bear dens up in the Southern Appalachians known as the Smokies. Cant tell smoke from mountain mists hereabouts! Lots of coves and hidey holes, and God's Country for blessed rain and growin them veggies even as maybe in Arkansas. Thats why I put the SE on my moniker, aint at no 9000 ft elevation neither!! Why they even done found GOLD hereabouts once upon a time I heard tell!!

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:35 - ID#43460)
Grizz you are right, IMHO
Consider that silver is 50-60 times cheaper per ounce than gold and one can get enough silver coins for the cost of a six pack of beer and a carton of cigarettes to make hammered silver rings for all the children. I think there is no shame in not being wealthy ( been there, done that ) so if a person wants to be a bug and doesn't have the money to be a gold bug then silverbuggery is just fine. I was a silver bug myself for many years before I had the money to buy any gold at all. I never spent the grocery money, but I did spend a lot of money that otherwise would have gone for beer, pizza, movies, fast women and tobacco. Now that I've fought my way up the food chain a little bit I buy gold instead. IMHO

I think its one of the pitfalls, that people have been buying more gold than they can afford and then blaming ( others/the market/gold itself/et cetera ) . The truth is they've been spending money they should have saved. So silver is just fine if thats what you like and you don't want to spend your play money on another vice. But its your money, just like it would be if you put it in the dollar slots down on the riverboat. IMHO

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:37 - ID#401460)
BIS head sees growing competition between euro,dollar

Sunday July 12, 10:25 pm Eastern Time

TOKYO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - The chairman of the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) Alfons Verplaetse said in Tokyo on Monday that he expects competition between Europe's single currency, the euro, and the U.S. dollar to grow.

``The competition between the dollar and euro will be growing,'' he told reporters ahead of the first meeting in Tokyo of the BIS.

``Until now, there was no external sanctions to policies of the United States, even when they forget to do what they have to do. But the competition will be good for them,'' Verplaetse said.

``Both Europe and Japan are in favour of stable exchange rates, while the United States thinks the floating system works best,'' he added.

Watch out $!


(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:38 - ID#252127)
Simplistic? yes

Important to note the amount of gold that has been bought by Asians over the past eight years and THE AMOUNT REPUTED TO BE DISHOARDED during the crisis, therein lies the anomaly of a high priced dollar. Don't let them BS you.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:42 - ID#401460)

(Sun Jul 12 1998 22:43 - ID#43460)
Explain please.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:08 - ID#252127)
A crazy idea; nah

In retaliation to the US Government convincing it's captive hack ( lackeys ) countries placing trade restrictions on any government who doesn't follow the Party Line, the effected countries should make US dollar transactions within their jurisdiction a criminal offense, with major repurcusions to violators.
I can imagine the number of dollars returning to our shores or the buying of the yellow to making those criminals running our government think differently.
The time to go back to our original principals is close at hand, that is unless the warlocks and their witches have an even more powerful sway than even I can imagine.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:09 - ID#335190)
apan PM candidates get mixed reviews from market

TOKYO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Whoever takes over as Japan's prime minister after Sunday's huge election setback for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces the mammoth task of persuading the markets that economic policy is in better hands.

"Who the successor is is probably less important than the time-scale, urgency being the priority," said Chris Calderwood, chief economist at Jardine Fleming Securities. "Here we are with the currency back at levels at which intervention occurred and it seems no one is on the bridge of the Japanese ship."

"Not only the Japanese electorate, but the exchange rate and stock markets will both be on the LDP's back and we may possibly be coming to the moment of truth whether they will really go through with reform once and for all," Kataoka said.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:17 - ID#430212)
Japan's new prime minister?
When will we know here in the States who will be the new prime minister of Japan?

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:17 - ID#401460)
Will China Devalue this Fall?

Shanghai Composite
Hong Kong
Hang Seng

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:21 - ID#24952)
ROR ref Armstrong's forecast
Armstrong was originally looking for high in 1998 about 5 years ago. He then turned bearish looking for 1998 low back in 1995. He is now warning that if gold makes any new low after July, it may be down into next year. His capital flows are pointing straight into US dollar. After the political meltdown in Japan & Hoshimoto about to resign, looks like he may be on to something for big run up in $ into next year. From what have read, he still see $1200 sometime in 2003 or 2007 now sure of his target date. I think he is looking for stock market high in July with crash for Europe but only 20% drop in US & high in bonds next year around 156. His last report said gold must drop below $270 by July 20th in order to raise hope that 1998 will be a low otherwise it follows his 8 year cycle into low for 1999/2000. Every past 8 year cycle has produced a low 2000, 1992, 1984/1985, 1976, 1968. If this is right, looks like $200 gold to me.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:22 - ID#350194)
ROR and 6pak and any other who wish to make it to the Toronto meeting on July 30th, email me for final details. ROR - We are going to go for something along Bloor or Yonge so as to make it easy for all to meet. Write me. OK, downunder, its all yours! Goodnight. Goodnight Glenn. EB and Cherokee - You guys still alive? Soybeans ( Nov.? ) , Coffee, Sugar and Silver and ( eventually ) Black and Yellow Gold.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:23 - ID#335190)
Ruling party handed major election upset

TOKYO ( AP ) --
"The results are entirely my responsibility," Hashimoto said. "Everyone has handed down their judgment, and we must accept that with sincerity."

He refused to say what his decision might be, but his comments suggested he may resign.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were also dragged down by the Japanese currency, with both losing more than a cent in value against the U.S. dollar.

Democrats will continue to govern because they have firm control over the more powerful lower house, which can pass the national budget and choose the prime minister without the approval of the upper house.

But John Neuffer, a senior research fellow who follows Japanese politics at Mitsui Marine Research Institute, a Tokyo think tank, said the opposition was too fragmented to pose a real threat to the Liberal Democrats.

The Japan Communist party, which strongly pushed for tax cuts, won 15 seats, also a gain of nine, according to NHK, and now holds 23 seats in the house.

The left-leaning Social Democrats, who lost much of their credibility when they joined the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democrats, won five seats, a loss of seven, and now have 13 in all.

Gold Dancer
(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:26 - ID#377196)
James Stack
Latest Sat. hotline reports biggest negative divergences in stock
market for past 80 years. Signals BIG DROP in stocks but may hold up
for a little while longer-a month or so. Still holding 8% position in
gold shares. Repeat: THIS IS A DANGEROUS MARKET.

Thanks, GD

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:28 - ID#252127)

In past readings goodly tonnages of gold moved into Signapore, Honk Kong, Korea, and other SEA counties in the early to mid nineties, or just before the crisis.
Much more gold than what was reputed to have left during the crisis. I will not even mention India and Pakistan who now are victims of trade sanctions and to be sure media releases ( rumors ) of dishoardings.

I don't keep records, or numbers but my still not entirely feebil mind concludes that more went in to Asia than has come out.

The BS esposed by the media is rather high and that aint no humble opinion.

Steve in TO__A
(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:29 - ID#287337)
ISURE: re: let Americans stand up . . .
The Daily Telegraph is one of London's major "quality" papers. Until last year they had a correspondent in Washington named Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. He has since gone back to London and is working for the paper in a more senior position.

He said something very interesting that caught my attention.

Before going to Washington Ambrose had been one of the Telly's Latin American correspondents, covering Mexico, Central America, Colombia & Venezuela.

He said that being a reporter in corrupt Central American countries like Guatemala and Nicaragua was an excellent preparation for going to the US. When he was in Central America he found that much of the decay and intractability of government corruption could be traced to the fact that the police and military forces had been co-opted by the politicians. These organizations had been politicized, in other words, and were used as enforcers for corrupt politicians instead of for their legitimate defense and law enforcement roles.

Ambrose said he came to the US as a foreigner without any particular axe to grind, and perhaps that is why he was able to see that the state of Arkansas was exactly like a Central American country- a banana republic, if you will. When he travelled there he found numerous cases of political intimidation, even what appeared to be death-squad killings. He found numerous cases of police being used as enforcers for corrupt shakedowns- and most of all, he said, just like in Central American countries, there was a palpable fear of politicians and corrupt police officers among the local people. Many people would only relate their stories if he would be willing to not even ask their names. At public events he said people would check around for eavesdroppers before making any comment.

He said he noticed that Bill CLinton's first actions in office were to perform an Arkansas-style political purge of key federal legal and law enforcement officials, to replace them with political operatives and to bring in corrupt enforcers like Craig Livingstone. Political operative Ron Brown started selling seats on Commerce Dept. trade missions. Getting a seat cost you a heft donation to the Democratic party. Political operatives in the Labor Dept. have been forcing the department to fudge economic statistics such as unemployment figures, to make the administration look better. Until he was taken out by criminal indictments Webster Hubbell was the political operative at the Justice Department responsible for ensuring that the administration got heads-up information on important developments such as the indictment of Arkansas Governor Tucker, and David Hale. He also meddled in important decisions made by Justice Dept. officials, including the AG.

Politicization of the FBI is perhaps the most worrisome development, though. It was no accident that straight-arrow FBI director William Sessions was fired at the time the FBI investigation into Vincent Foster's death was underway. It is also no accident that William Freeh, who is beholden to the administration because of his involvement in the Waco fiasco was installed in his place. It was also no accident that Howard Shapiro was put in place as the political operative in the agency. Shapiro's job was to give heads-up information on FBI developments to the administration. He was forced to resign after meddling unethically in the Gary Aldrich affair.

These are scary developments. If things like asset siezures and paramilitary law enforcement tactics become more common, and if the Clinton administration maintains the politicization of agencies that must remain impartial if people are to be able to trust them- you Americans will reap a bitter harvest.

The American revolution was instigated precisely because these same things were being done by the British government of the day. Soldiers would break into homes without warrants, or any other legal authority, pointing guns at the inhabitants. People were subject to having their goods siezed. Governors enforced edicts for the political reasons of the British government without regard to the welfare of the local people.

The American people threw off their yoke at a great cost in blood, and some Latin American countries, like Chile and Argentina, have regained their freedom, but again at the cost of much blood. Remember, though, that if your government degenerates into an Arkansas- or Central American-style corruption, you will be facing the most sophisticated arsenal of police weapons and surveillance equipment the world has ever seen. Your struggle may involve unprecedented sacrifices.

- Steve

Gloomy Gus
(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:29 - ID#428207)
How long has Vronsky been calling a PM Bull? look at his site, hes said it for YEARSSSSSSS
Time to buy Yahoooo
sell silver, sell gold, the PMs have got PMT. Here comes the great PM CRASH. ha ha gold bugs gonna get splattered, like I did listening to yall before I wised up.... ha ha buy stocks, buy land, buy paintings, sell gold......

Dave in Co
thanks for your reply
Average losses in PMs 68%. Daughter's got no college fund now...gonna send her to work at McDonalds...

Interesting Times
(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:37 - ID#423355)
STEVE IN TO_A (Evans-Pritchard reports)
Nice synopsis. One note: William Sessions was fired the same day Vince Foster died -- the first FBI Director to be dismissed. He wrote a one-paragraph endorsement of Chris Ruddy's book "The Strange Death of Vincent Foster", in which he described the FBI investigation as "compromised from the beginning"...

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:37 - ID#65118) all.... Gold will never go to zero...
Yes, this has been a bummer year for us goldbugs, and is not showing
signs of getting much better. However, I still believe that all of
us will simply wake up one morning and the world will be a different
An man in his 80's, that I met in a R.V. park in California this past
Christmas, was the oldest goldbug I have had the pleasure chatting with.
He basically said "In times like these, only put your money into things
that can't burn or blow away" He also talked of the depression and how
it was no fun for him. He was a wise man! IMVHO.

tolerant1 put it best!.....

Best regards to all


(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:44 - ID#335190)
SKorea searches for NKorea spies, issues warning

SEOUL, July 13 ( Reuters ) -
South Korean troops in the east were placed on maximum alert. Defence Minister Cheon Yong-taek was cutting short a U.S. visit to deal with the incident, he said.

The Defence Ministry on Sunday demanded North Korea immediately stop all incursions. "We issue a warning that we are not going to sit idly by in the face of these intrusion activities," it said.

The two Koreas remain technically at war. Their 1950-53 conflict ended with a ceasefire, not a peace agreement.

U.S. and South Korean officials were to meet in Hawaii on Monday to discuss lifting trade sanctions against North Korea, after South Korea President Kim Dae-jung called for such a move on a visit to Washington last month.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:47 - ID#43349)
status report
With the decisive defeat of the Japanese ruling party comes a new decline of the yen/dollar. The ruling party no longer has the power to pass legislation without the cooperation of the minority. There is also the strong possibility Hashimoto will resign. Alltogether this implies further delays in doing anything decisive about Japan's economic problems.

The increase in the dollar's strength in turn has brought new declines in the price of gold but at the same time brings the possibility of intervention back into focus.

Silver continues to hold solid as a rock and is even trending up in early trading.

The next few days brings much discussion about how to deal with Japan's situation and the world financial situation in general as the BIS meets in Japan.

The fourth may be over but the firecrackers have not yet stopped popping.

(Sun Jul 12 1998 23:53 - ID#285121)
Toooo Serious HighRise
With a bottle of tequila in my left hand I place my right hand on a Jimmy Buffett tape and swear to stay drunk till gold or tequila one hits $500.00 an oz. : )
China won't devalue till after our November elections. Klinton promised them Tiawan, a bottle of tequila, and a date with Monica.