"Everyday it seems I hear another cockamamie myth about mutual funds and the bull market." J. Irving Weiss, SAFE MONEY REPORT ( Palm Beach Gardens, Florida ) . Following is VERBATIM!
In view of the extremely precarious market conditions, as accurately described by many market mavens, I felt compelled to post pertinent information from an article published in one of the best market newsletters in the country - SAFE MONEY REPORT. No quotation marks will be used as the following are verbatim excerpts.
MUTUAL FUND MYTHS
The most absurd myth of all is the one dished out by the mutual funds themselves - the idea that "mutual fund investors don't get hurt as badly in a crash."
But take a look at what happened back in 1929. The funds ( called "investment trusts" ) were absolutely devastated:
Mutual Fund Crash Declines From 1929 peak
.....FUND..................To 1929 Low.......To 1932 Low
Goldman Sachs.................-98%...............-99%
Tri-Continental...............-82%...............-97%
United Corporate..............-75%...............-97%
United Founders...............-67%..............Bankrupt
Lehman Corporate..............-44%...............-77%
But look at what happened to those poor investors! At the low in 1929, they were virtually wiped out -- down to 3 cents on the dollar. Even if you bought the fund after the crash, you would have lost half of your money by the time the market hit rock bottom in 1932.
So, don't believe these myths you're hearing about mutual funds.
Don't delude yourself into a false sense of security. The stock Bubble is about to burst. Moreover, the Y2K situation portends to be a problem fostering the growth of public panic - which may well be the Mother of All Bear Markets.
When early reports herald forthcoming natural disasters like flood, hurricane, tornado, prudent men will prepare to protect their families and possessions. They will stock up on provisions, stockpile sandbags, cover windows, seek shelter, practice emergeny drills, increase the amount of insurance coverage etc etc. Therefore, prudent and intelligent men will become more cautious and prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.
Indeed it is a time to pull in our horns and establish a defensive investment posture.
The following "weather" reports MUST be carefully monitored to be able to see the looming dark clouds gathering on Western horizons because the Far-East is presently in the eye of the storm.
Ignoring the "weather" reports exposes family and possessions to possible irreparable damage. Why take the chance!
Remember to delete the extra "en" letters in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke070498.html
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/crimi070598.html
http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/kutyn070898.html
Let me give you an URL which, if you can make it work, should make you weep openly with tears of sheer admiration for the guy who wrote the speeches ( and coincidentally had authorized spending to buy the weapons just a year or two earlier ) . Plus another site describing the Battle of Britain. But remember that behind it all was currency backed with gold and the determination to spend it on what was needed! IMHO
Winston Churchill's recorded wartime speeches. No kidding!
http://mirrors.org.sg/earthstation/wcwwii.html
Historical site:
http://www.interlog.com/~pjf/rp/ref/2.001.battleofbritain.html
OLD GOLD: Ref Your "Appaerently these pension fund mangers
see Japan, or at least some sectors of the market there, in a different light than the super bears."
Secuities Law in the Land of the Setting Sun are very similar to that of the US. Specifically, Mutual Funds are obligaed by their by-laws to maintain 90% to 95% invested in prescribed stock market investment objectives at all times.
While some Japanese pension fund managers may be jettisoning their worst dogs, they are forced to reinvest the funds into securities which have not ( at least to date ) been bleeding as badly. Tantamount to changing deck-chairs on the Titanic. Futile, unproductive, illusory maneuvers leading inevitably to sinking further.
As you so aptly and astutely indicated many times in the last couple years ( but in reference to other type of investments ) , before the Nikkei finally bottoms there will be a massive sell-off on record volume - thus heralding the "Banzai-Titanic" has reached the ocean floor.
Right now the Banzai-Titanic is listing badly 35 degrees to starboard. NOW, is not the most ideal time to "book passage!"
Delete the extra letters "en"
http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/kutyn070898.html
SILVERFOX: Many thx for very insightful observations:
"IMHO, we are not even in a bear market in PMs in general. Gold is already in a bull market in Australian dollars or South African rand. It is of interest to note that six months ago South African gold mines were on the verge of closure because they were high cost producers. Now with the collapse in the rand, they are expected to be highly profitable. They are not any more efficient today than six months ago. They have simply been saved by the currency crisis."
"If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) ."
Needless to say resident South African Gold Stock Analyst, John Disney, concurs completely - and provides detailed supporting arguments with irrefutable numbers.
Per custom delete letters "en"
http://www.golden-eagle.com/south_africa/regional_analysts/disney070898.html
I e -mailed myself the link , that is one way, sure there are easier ones.
A Great Big Bounce for Dollars and Bonds
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Like a beach ball held under water and then released, the dollar popped up again last week. The dollar index, a measure of the value of the United States currency against 10 major world currencies, reached a high Thursday of 102.46, a level unseen since 1989. The index closed the week at 102.03. Currency traders, concerned that the Treasury might intervene again on behalf of the Japanese yen and sell dollars, were cautious about the move. Was it a blip or the start of a long dollar uptrend?
"We're seeing the birth of a new bull market in the dollar that won't peak out until 2002," said Martin Armstrong, chairman of Princeton Economics International, a global advisory firm based in Princeton, N.J., that specializes in global economic issues. Armstrong expects the dollar to hit 200 yen a year from now, up from 141.2 on Friday. He expects the U.S. currency to rally to 2.85 German marks to the dollar, up from 1.82.
A strong dollar has implications for both stock and bond investors in the
United States. Generally, a powerful currency is negative for stocks because it makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas. Bonds, meanwhile, are helped by a rising dollar as investors the world over buy U.S. Treasuries to benefit from the currency's strength.
Last week, currency traders were waiting to see results of Sunday's parliamentary elections in Japan. But the elections will have little impact on the three bases for Armstrong's forecast of a stronger dollar.
The first is Phase 2 of financial deregulation in Japan, set for Jan. 1, 1999, which will free Japanese pension funds to invest in instruments other than Japanese government bonds. Because confidence in Japan's institutions is so low, and interest rates are less than 1 percent, the managers will find U.S. Treasuries attractive.
Armstrong says that discussions with some of these managers leads him to expect that 15 percent of the $9 trillion invested will head for the U.S. bond market. That's more than $1 trillion. "The Japanese have the potential to be to the U.S. bond market what the Hunt brothers were to silver," he said, referring to the Texas investors. This flood of funds will drive long-term U.S. interest rates to 4.75 percent from Sunday's 5.6 percent. Funds will begin flowing in January; more will come in April, when Japan's fiscal year begins.
The second prod to the dollar relates to the economic meltdown in Russia. U.S. exposure is relatively small: of the $70 billion in loans to Russia, 10 percent originated here. Most came from Europe; $30 billion from Germany.
Finally, the dollar will benefit from the chaos surrounding he introduction of the euro, the single European currency, next year.
"Capital is pouring out of Germany," said Armstrong. "They have figured out that the value of the euro cannot be the value of the strongest currency in the basket. So they're moving out capital as a hedge." Where is it going? To the United States.
It all adds up to a mighty dollar and a bull move in bonds. As for stocks, Armstrong thinks European markets, up more than 35 percent this year, are very vulnerable. U.S. markets, concerned about the dollar's rise and the upheaval in Russia, may decline later this summer, Armstrong said. But he doesn't expect a correction greater than 20 percent. "With U.S. interest rates coming down," he said, "Equities will recover."
I agree that it is sad that bad money replaces good money, but that is the way it will always be. Things go up ,and things go down, buy em when they are down.
Rising Sun and Skinny, thanks but I'm sorry to have led the conversation off topic. Am encouraged though by the EU developing space consortium as is too big for one country alone. The same thing happened when Dutch, English, Spanish, Portugese, French formed companies to compete for New World trade. Anticipate NASA + former USSR + China will be stronger than NASA alone and all will help colonize space sooner. ( using vast amounts of gold in the process ) IMHO
All, a selection of references in response to discussion of US gold laws. Some are better than others:
United states code page
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/index.html
Council quest notable acts of congress and search page
http://counselquest.com/congress.htm
Sample link from Council quest page ( gold hoarding act )
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/12/248.html
Another less satisfactory list of popular names of laws
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/topn/14.html
lists laws by name then describes their reference numbers
http://www.gpo.ucop.edu/catalog/uscodeg.html
This is what the poster Another has been saying.
I wish that I had come to this conclusion a few hundred thousand dollars ago. While I believe that the precious shall be precious again, it may take a series of disasterous events that are beyond the control of all governments and purveyors of such instruments. I am buying physical and will continue to do so as the price falls. It is my prayer, that when these events occur, that us gold-bugs can gain some satisfaction from it. Although this may not be the case.
This is a troubling world in which we live, and every time I read Revelations it's like picking up the Sunday paper. Federal identification numbers and a president that seems determined to fulfill every verse.
Sorry about delivering this "downer". Things usually work out in the end.
Your friend, Isure
It is time for we Americans to stand up and say that the constitution of the United States of America will be defiled no more. No longer will we tolerate behavior from our government or politicians that goes against every decent and honorable thing that so many have fought and died for.
Let us give the government back to the people, the states, and let all understand that no government is greater than the sum total of the people within that government.
Listen to me, and listen well. Dark days are coming our way. If we stand together, then peace and prosperity will surely follow. If not, then America will be a country that dies from the evil within.
We have every nationality of people. Good people. People that believe in right and know wrong when they see it. But, "evil will prevail when good men stand by and do nothing."
It is truly a sad testament when our leaders can break every law and get away with it, and why.... because our love for money makes it so. Write your congressman, write your newspaper, and ask them to tell Mr. Clinton what he can do with his executive orders, and tell him it's time to abide by the laws of the land.
Gold and silver are money, because our forefathers said it was the only real money, and it's good at my business anytime.
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