Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:00 - ID#207145)
Rubin won't intervene when the Yen is weak. He will intervene when it's clear he's not wasting time and money.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:01 - ID#401460)

YEN Down
$ Down
EURO UP ......Interesting

It has been mentioned that China may devalue in the 4th Qtr. if Japan can't turn things around.

Right now it doesn't look like Japan is getting it together, therefore...... that's all. Not to serious.

Now if the entire Asian economy collapsed, I would call that serious!


(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:02 - ID#207145)
So , dont bet the farm
on gold this week, nor on the Yen until announcements by Japan inprove the venue.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:03 - ID#207145)
Certainly wish I could spell,
And type.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:03 - ID#401460)
$ head to 160 YEN

Sunday July 12, 11:44 pm Eastern Time

Ex-Fed Lindsey says dollar bound to head to 160 yen

TOKYO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - The yen is bound to weaken further and the dollar may head to 160 yen, former U.S.
Federal Reserve governor Lawrence Lindsey said on Monday.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:05 - ID#43349)
And I'll bet that won't be at a time when the yen is strong.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:05 - ID#335190)
Serb forces pound rebel stronghold

PEC, Yugoslavia ( AP ) -- Brushing aside international calls for a ceasefire, Serb forces pounded Albanian rebels Saturday outside Kosovo's second-largest city. Hundreds of terrified civilians fled over twisting mountain roads to escape the fighting.

In addition to the action in Lodja, Albanian sources reported fresh fighting Saturday in the Decani area, east of Pec and near the border town of Djakovica.

Also Saturday, the Macedonian defence ministry said guards fired on arms smugglers Friday as they tried to cross into the country from Albania. There were no casualties and the smugglers fled back to Albania.

Major world powers oppose independence for Kosovo, fearing it could trigger rebellions in other Balkan countries with substantial Albanian communities.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:05 - ID#287280)
Highrise--Chinese devaluation...
1 Euro = 8.969399 CNY

As of January 1, 1999 the CNY will be effectively devalued against the USD. Without the Chinese lifting a finger.

They will have kept their pledge to their neighbors, gaining political
currency; and their currency will be devalued. Fact. Why would they blow
that by devaluing in the 4th quarter? {:- ) )

1 Euro = 8.969399 1 Euro = 1 USD

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:07 - ID#287280)
I can't type either (or spell)
The date should be 1/1/99...hopeless...{:- ( (

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:07 - ID#207145)
Poor, poor Yen
Poor downtroden Gold. My poor bank account. Hey, pass that Cuervo over here, no, forget the lime. No glass either.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:08 - ID#43349)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:08 - ID#207145)
You dont quite get it do you?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:10 - ID#43349)
"Rubin won't intervene when the Yen is weak." says blooper.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:10 - ID#207145)
There is no use supporting a currency when the fundamentals are pitiful, one ( Rubin ) will wait at least until things improve a little, to save currency.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:11 - ID#411259)
..... New Sheriff .....

Quite apart from the predictions of doom and gloom for Kitco under Barts new enforcement policy, I see no stifling of opinion here, quite the contrary. The only thing that seems to be missing is all the name calling.

I like it better this way.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:13 - ID#207145)
Have it your way then sir, as you know a great deal about which you speak. I will admit I don't.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:14 - ID#411259)
..... PS .....

Methinks gold and silver will have a tough week.
PGMs have their own fundamentals supporting them.
But a hammered yen will hurt us there too.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:18 - ID#43349)
Rubin's track record in the past has been to act when the time for action was at hand. That time was when the markets had become more disorderly normal. He would let the the yen go to 200 to the dollar if it were to happen in an orderly fashion.

Waiting for things to become such that he can save currency is like waiting for the house to burn mostly down so that one can save water.

These curreny interventions are done in a "sanitized" fashion anyway so as to not change monetary policy so it really doesn't cost much anyway. In fact might even show a profit.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:19 - ID#207145)
Then I would suggest you load up on Gold.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:20 - ID#411259)
..... Gollum .....

For some here, it seems you are speaking in another language.
A bewildering tongue, strange and foreign to their ears.
They have not the time or inclination to try to understand you.
As they are too much enamored with the sound of their own voice.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:20 - ID#401460)
Lets see, when was the last time we saw this?

Globex US market Indices are ............DOWN
Bonds are .......................................... UP
YEN is.................................................DOWN
US$ is .................................................DOWN
Euro$ is...............................................UP
Gold is.................................................UP from tonights open f

A new trend?


ps: check out copper

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:22 - ID#207145)
when he was over at GS caught so many Knives i'm sure that Clinton wanted him so badly , because he was so good at it.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:23 - ID#227238)
Steve in TO__A: At this late date in the course of the present US administration, there is little question that Mr. Pritchard's observations and suspicions are substantially correct. In both specifics and substance. Further, he extends us an unwarranted compliment by restricting his main comments to the executive branch.

Editorially, I'm not certain if you are advocating a certain forceful rectification of present circumstances or not but it would be prudent to recognise the validity of the final paragraph of your post's source. In short, it's not generally a good idea to pick a fight with someone who buys gunpowder by the trainload. ......... Unless there are thousands of others with a pound or two, standing in rank.

There is little question, though, that the right and proper day will arrive. A moment when an informal plebiscite will be formed and hands will be counted. Much like Asian beliefs, it will be viewed as "The will of heaven". ........ But, much like the overbloated DOW, it's still too soon.

One cannot ignore the standard distribution of human proclivities. Someone less generous would group them as categorically bovine. Our masters are acutely aware of such. It's the source of their political mastery. It will take a great deal to spook this herd and cause a stampede. It may even be a sensorial impossibility.

Until and unless that day does come, buy gold. Keep it safe and keep yer powder dry.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:25 - ID#207145)
You might buy some Gold early AM also. Hell, who knows, you could be right. I'm not perfect. But I do like a bit of a tussle.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:28 - ID#43349)
Actually I kind of agree with you. Some people look for Rubin to intervene at some preset level of the yen/dollar. I ( and I thin you ) do not think that it is at all that simple.

The first intervention came at a time when ther was some danger of the yen collapsing before the Japanses had a chance to have their elections and come up with some effective plan for dealing with their problems.

Well, now they have had their elections.

If some construcive and worthwhile actions for dealing with their problems are not forthcoming with some degree of rapidity now, Rubin may well be out of the intervention business entirely.

The past has shown that monetary interventions in od\f themselves are entirely ineffecitve and are succesfull only in buying a little time. Without any clear cut reason to buy some time Rubin is better off keeping his powder dry.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:29 - ID#401460)
YEN / US$ / Euro$

Monday July 13, 12:12 am Eastern Time

Central bank heads gather in election-rocked Tokyo

But the meetings, grouping such international heavyweights as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, German Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer and the host, BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami, were overshadowed by the Upper House electoral debacle suffered by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's ruling party.

``I have the impression that political instability might result from this election,'' said BIS Chairman Alfons Verplaetse, who presumably had expected to focus on such issues as the introduction of the euro currency during his Tokyo visit.

``The competition between the dollar and euro will be growing,'' he said.

Europe, under the deficit-cutting restrictions of the Maastricht Treaty on monetary union, has almost the same policy mix as the United States, he said. But he added that the U.S. commitment was sometimes fragile due to conflicts between Congress and the White House.

``Until now, there was no external sanctions to policies of the United States, even when they forget to do what they have to do. But the competition will be good for them,'' Verplaetse said. After the launch of the euro, the net debtor position of the United States will be taken into consideration by financial markets more than it is now, said a Belgian official who accompanied Verplaetse to Tokyo.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:30 - ID#45173)
Greetings from Las Vegas
Stock Market Madness

I've gotten somewhat side-tracked on my way to Belgium. Walking through the hotel casino this evening it hits me: so many folks in the stock market are like these slot machine creatures. Here are humans pushing their hard-earned money into noisy machines over and over and over. Have they done their risk analysis before drinking ten free Budweisers?

No one uses a slot machine at home alone. Throwing money senselessly into a machine is a social event, as is the stock market. Watch what happens when a few people see a bunch of other people whack the stock market machine with a sledge hammer to get their money back. They will not blame themselves for their mistake. They will blame Wall Street, securities firms, traders. After the dust has settled, it will become very uncool to have anything to do with stocks. New, more conservative fashions will emerge. Will hemlines fall and gold rise? If falling hemlines is what it takes, it's not worth it.

Gold Demonetization and $90 Gold

To believe gold no longer has monetary value is to believe in the omnipotence of governments. The world is just full of surprises. Let's say it's now 1989. Do you know that Japan will be on the verge of going bust in less than ten years? Sounds nutty. Ok, now it's 2001. Now takes $3,000 US dollars to buy a single oz. of gold. It all started back in 1998 with the implosion of Asian economies and a balooning US current account deficit, then competition with the euro, then Y2K bank runs, a stock market crash, Y2K interruptions of the world financial markets, ending in a devaluation of the dollar and a deflationary depression...

Clinton's Impeachment

A Republican lobbyist flying first class, of course, sitting next to me told me Starr is out to nag and drag Clinton down, try to make him as miserable and ineffective as possible, but not take him out. Republicans have no desire to bring about Clinton's end of term. First of all, the last thing the Republicans want is to give Gore a one year lead in the oval office. Second, they think the economy is going to tank and want it to happen on Clinton's watch. Makes it harder for Demos in general.

All for now. Hang loose.

Estragon: I can't go on like this.
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:33 - ID#207145)
10-4 Gollum,
However You could be right too. The last time I said he would, John Disney said he wouldn't, I got lucky. Fundamentals look too weak, but who knows. I know I don't like situation, as I have investments out there.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:35 - ID#411259)
..... Blooper .....

I'm still short gold

I will buy none tomorrow

Huh uh

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:36 - ID#207145)
Too many complicating factors,
To this Goldilocks Scenerio. Throw in Russia, South America, whew!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:36 - ID#401460)
Ex-Fed Lindsey

Monday July 13, 12:04 am Eastern Time

Ex-Fed Lindsey says dollar bound to head to 160 yen
Regarding the U.S. economy, Lindsey said:

* ``I think the likely move for the Fed next is to up rates. I think the U.S. economy is clearly overheating. The Fed has already issued a warning that credit quality is deteriorating.''

* ``We are bound to get a bad inflation number at some point. In order to maintain a perception that the Fed is on top of inflation, as soon as that bad number comes out, you will find the Fed tightening.'' Lindsey also said Japan's maximum income tax rate of 65 percent was too high, and that it should be no higher than 40 percent.

Party is about over ........... IMHO
Good Night


(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:37 - ID#272379)
THERE IS A DAY COMING ( in less than 5 months ) when gold will not be tracking the yen as to it's $/oz purchase price but will be closer to what's happening with the ero and oil. The yen is another "red herring" which has worked for a season to divert the true market forces underlying the dollars relationship to being the enduring contant and the dollar being mostly manipulated around it. We'll see an awesome spike between now and the first quarter of 1999. The Y2K is the other ringer depending on how much press it gets and the resulting public read and reaction to same. Don't despair my fellow friends of the oldest real moneyin recoeded history....our day is on the immediate horizon...patience is our true virtue in this cat and mouse game!!!!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:38 - ID#43349)
I guess it does sound like another tongue. I think it is because they think I am making a prediction when actually I am only pointing out that nothing is certain.

Those who feel certain may thus feel I am in disagreement with them, but I am not. I am sure they may be right.

Rubin will quite likely not intervene, but then again we must not forget that he is still out there and could.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:39 - ID#207145)
Higher rates are a fact
Why would they lower rates? To help the markets gain 2000 more points. Forget deflation for now, we got to have a bear market.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:41 - ID#207145)
You are right that he will intervene, and fairly soon.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:41 - ID#43460)
RJ re name calling. All links to Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations!!!
You may call me a bibliophile is you wish. Or even an aurophile ( no relation to our pet Kitco aurophile ) . But just don't call me late for supper.

I found Wealth of Nations in two forms, the first an indexed chapter by chapter rendition and the second an 'en block' version. Tracking the first back to its source I found the index to the website and then found a version of Gibbon's opus. Its been a great night. Goodnight all.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:42 - ID#227238)
blooper ( Certainly wish I could spell, ) : I don't think anyone takes particular offense at such but a moment of proofreading generally works wonders. ..... Speaking personally, there are many times when a proofreading gives sufficient cause to wipe the thing out entirely, and remain silent. ...... Thus providing immense pleasure to many.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:43 - ID#284255)
Astro for trading
Opening Bell
Dates for '98
Dates fo '99

Some interesting conjecture here.
Re crashes - money - Y2k

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:45 - ID#207145)
GDP 2nd Qtr,
Will be released on July 30. It may be a bit of a shocker to the upside. Rates will go up ( poinion ) . How else will we get OUR bubble under control. Cycles still rule, and were late.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:50 - ID#43349)
Intersting set of numbers. It kind of points out that gold's future depends on the dollar, not on the yen/dollar.

This asian thing has everyone looking east when they should be not only east but at the rest of the globe too.

As the world sinks into economic lethargy I am sure that the US would rather have Asian economic policy be blamed for all the problems.

I, however, feel Asia to be one of the victims and not one of the perpetrators.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:50 - ID#207145)
Just say something. It comes out of my brain in a stream of conciousness. Especially when Gollum and I are having fun. As for you,;
Just say something intelligable and I promise to forgive you for miss spelling a word or too. I am a lousy typer.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:53 - ID#43349)
It's late for me
I have to get up early tomorrow so I'm off for now.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:54 - ID#333126)
Asian market mayhem continues

hmm... HK down 2.6%, S'pore down 3.5%, Malaysian SE hitting new lows...ditto for Thai...

Strangely, the Nikkei is up after being down the first part of the day...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:55 - ID#431263)
While HK and rest of Asia tank! Who's buyin' Jap paper? And why? PPT?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 00:57 - ID#207145)
Have a good one!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:01 - ID#207145)
Got any explanation for up market in Japan. Glad to get rid of the guy?

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:01 - ID#24135)
A constructive comment...
For gold dancer ..
you recently made the point that the RSA mines must
be very attractive for takeovers by NA mining companies.
The way the rand is going .. rather than buy the MINES
why not simply buy the whole place .. something along
the lines of the Louisiana Purchase.
Keep all the mines .. The Western Cape.. the Beaches ..
the wild animals .. the wine growing areas .. the
cricket team .. the rugby team .. ernie els .. the
biltong .. The Krugerrands ...the better looking
chicks .. and donate the rands to the IMF, and the
balance of the country to the UN.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:03 - ID#207145)
john Dissey
Good idea. Don't know why I didn't think of that.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:05 - ID#207145)
Except the IMF, U.N.
We would just keep the booty.

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:08 - ID#24135)
An Interesting Observation..
To all
RSA out of action this weekend on
internet due damage to undersea fiber
optic cable..
Perhaps the work of Zulu Skindivers ..
During this off period have uncovered
equation usefull for forecasting
short term August gold price ...
POG = 41,250/ yen ..

example .. 41250/142.55 = 289.4
see .. it works !

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:09 - ID#24135)
I caught that !
for Bloomer
Hands off Jane Fonda

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:11 - ID#207145)
Can someone explain why
Japan is up this fine morning? ( only by a little ) .

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:13 - ID#207145)
Jane Fondle,
You know i'm not gettin enough, by the posts I make. How the Hell are ya?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:16 - ID#413109)
Lot's of respect for RJ
But if what I thought earlier, and see happening now, the NIKKEI
already tested a breakout, and is going up, the Yen tested the bottom
recently made and is going up, the SF, DM same- and I suspect gold
and the other PMs "should" follow very soon, if not today.

Markets look to me like a correction is due. It may be a strong down-draft, or it may turn out to be the Grizzly we've been waiting
for, we'll just have to watch as it develops.

Looking forward to meeting many of you, soon. Great bunch!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:16 - ID#219363)
blooper: Cycles still rule, and were late.

Maybe we're pregnant ?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:17 - ID#207145)
John Disney,
If I bought HGMACY, could i make any money? I know better than to buy ours right now.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:19 - ID#207145)
It wouldn't be from lack of trying.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:19 - ID#411259)
..... Its Official .....

Hashimoto just resigned.


John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:21 - ID#77133)
Most Markets Down but Japan Up!
Asia markets summary
AFX, Monday, July 13, 1998 at 01:17
HONG KONG ( AFX-ASIA ) - Asian markets at 0511 GMT:
-Bangkok: SET index 268.21 ( down 6.05 pts )
-Bombay: BSE 30 index 3,446.07 ( up 44.33 pts )
-Hong Kong: Hang Seng index 7,990.75 ( down 215.02 pts )
-Jakarta: Composite index 458.075 ( down 5.506 pts )
-Kuala Lumpur: KLSE index 424.45 ( down 4.17 pts )
-Manila: Composite index 1,775.85 ( down 26.36 pts )
-Seoul: Composite index 302.41 ( down 2.56 pts )
-Shanghai: A index 1,442.03 ( down 2.76 pts )
B index 39.13 ( down 0.38 pts )
SSE-30 index 3,392.65 ( down 13.13 pts )
Composite index 1,357.89 ( down 2.72 pts )
-Singapore: Straits Times index 1,052.57 ( down 37.78 pts )
-Sydney: All Ords 2,725.6 ( down 22.3 pts )
-Taipei: Weighted index 7,815.53 ( down 67.63 pts )
-Tokyo: Nikkei 225 index 16,170.13 ( up 80.07 pts )
-Gold: 288.85-289.35 usd
-Dollar/yen: 142.67
-Dollar/mark: 1.8025

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:27 - ID#77133)
Gold working Toward a Bottom?
Globex shows S&P down 4 points and Nasdaq 100 down 11 points. Gold is taking gas inverse to dollar's rise. XAU stocks will open poorly - Is a good bottom may be coming up soon?
-Gold: 288.85-289.35 usd
-Dollar/yen: 142.67

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:29 - ID#24135)
Gold Stocks
for Bloomer ..
Whoever gets ENOUGH ??
Gold scares me .. Only place to be
is RSA because of reserves and vanishing
Rand .. If you want to be in gold.
I like Harmony, Durban Deep, Randfontein,
Avgold.. Rangold is basically a gamble
on the Mali Mine at siama .. but you
buy stuff that is already cheap at half
price.. if only they would throw in a
free Barbarella.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:29 - ID#207145)
Intrest rates have to go up at least 2 times, might have to go up the traditional 3 times. I believe in cycles. Things are beginning to stink.
October, September should be a prelude to rate increases. Clinton is scared big time. It's the economy stupid, not Monica. Nice boobs. Walks like a plow-girl, little overweight, but so am I.

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:31 - ID#77133)
RJ - Yes indeed!
AFX, Monday, July 13, 1998 at 01:32
TOKYO ( AFX-ASIA ) - Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said ruling Liberal
Democratic Party directors have accepted his offer to resign.
Hashimoto said he will officially submit his resignation as prime
minister to the LDP tomorrow. "I informed the directors meeting of my planned resignation, and it was accepted," Hashimoto said.
Hashimoto said he is also cancelling planned trips to the U.S. and France. "I do not know what time it will be, but I will tell the president's of France and the U.S. that I will cancel the visits, after this press conference is over."
Asked whether the LDP will team up with opposition parties, Hashimoto
said: "It is inappropriate to comment about these matters after my
resignation." The LDP will pursue the policies already agreed for the reform of the financial sector, Hashimoto said. He did not mention plans for permanent income tax cuts. "There should not be any change to the parties stance" in handling the issue of finance sector reform, Hashimoto said. ( sure )
"We outlined plans to protect depositors and sound borrowers with sound
management," he said. "This does not mean bailing out bad ones.
"I believe that the party will follow the same policies."

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:34 - ID#77133)
Strike the Following From My Previous Note
I don't know how the following got appended - it is not part of the Hashimoto resignation news.

"We outlined plans to protect depositors and sound borrowers with sound
management," he said. "This does not mean bailing out bad ones. "I believe that the party will follow the same policies."

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:36 - ID#77133)
John Disney
I think your advice on ASA the other day was valid. As you predicted, it appears I will be able to get back in soon.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:37 - ID#207145)
John Disney,
I disagree with Jane , but not physically. I know guys have made money in Aussie land, due to the currency weakness, but it's nice to have stability. I don't see a single good stock out there anywhere. Am about to pull out of Europe soon.

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:40 - ID#77133)
Bodes Well for Dollar, Ill for Gold
at least short term, it seems.

AFX, Monday, July 13, 1998 at 01:42
( Published on Sunday, July 13, 1997 at 02:40 )

Hashimoto's entire cabinet will resign as soon as a new leader is chosen,
LDP secretary general Koichi Kato said. The party's lawmakers will meet on July 21 to select a new leader, he said. "He will remain as prime minister until a new leader is chosen," Kato, said.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:46 - ID#220325)
ROR re-Martin Armstrong
I listened to Martin Armstrong on July 11, 1998 ( Sat. ) and he said that the dollar was going to above 200 Yen. See Speed 7/13/98 2:58 for full details ( on Kitco ) .

(Mon Jul 13 1998 01:50 - ID#207145)
It's a shame
The world's not as solid as this group o guys, good night all.

John B__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:06 - ID#77133)
James Cramer's Take on Hashimoto
7/12/98 8:56 PM ET

The action, the tape, the game, whatever you want to call it, has been super. Unless you are in the oil patch, and Lord knows why you would still be in that morass after every single bell went off last year, you should have been making some darned good bucks while I was away. And from the looks of things, the good times should continue.

Oh sure, last night the Japanese sacked Hashimoto. It is so fun to read all of these guys who are short the Yen weigh in about what a disaster this will be for the Yen and Japan. Yeah, the same disaster that befell the U.S. when Hoover got the boot and Roosevelt jumped in. These same big
mouths who want to write off Japan and set off the dominoes to China would have doubled down on their shorts when FDR declared the bank holiday. They would have bet the farm against the Dow when The New Deal was ushered in. And they would have been crushed. Steamrolled. Macadamized.
I'm supposed to miss Hashimoto? I'm supposed to hope for a victory for the status quo over there? Give me a break. I hate being that stupid.
I'm not oblivious to what Dave Kansas is saying in another part of this site; short-term things look more gloomy and the Rubin plan looks more tenuous. I am just saying that Hashimoto, like Hoover, never got what was really wrong.

Now a consensus is forming that something radical must be done, by someone else, of whatever party. This is not a vote for the status quo, it is a vote for a break with the incrementalism that Hashimoto gave us.

( G'nite - tomorrow should be interesting

(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:27 - ID#219363)
Regarding your 18:20 of 12 Jul: You say something along the lines of "If you pulled 100 25 year-olds off the street they wouldn't know there government owned gold", etc, etc. I'm 28, and I own gold. I know you were just trying to make a point.

My 20 something friends are smart, stupid, funny, dull, strong, weak, hard-working, lazy, excited, depressed, and .. well, probably a lot like your friends were when they were in their 20's. Don't buy into the media hype, we're just people getting along like everybody else.

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:28 - ID#24135)
Tito the Banker
to All ..
The Rand still bothers me.. The markets seem to have
the same opinion on Tito Mboweni as I do .. He is a
fat arrogant unqualified bum. When they get to know
him better, I think they will like him less.
This worries me .. The polls indicate that the ANC
will do much worse this election than the last with
the UDM of Holomisa and Meyer making gains in traditional
Xhosa strongholds.. A falling rand and labour unrest
will add to their problem.
Winnie Mandela said she would quit the ANC if they
gave her more crapola. Is that a loss?? Will she take
her matches with her ??
Stay tuned..

(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:50 - ID#259400)
No attempt was made to cast aspersions on the intelligence of the modern day 25 year old. What I was really trying to get across is the average young person today has much more faith and much less doubt in government institutions. 100 years ago young people distrusted govenment and it's fiat currency. Today young people tend to trust government to "make it alright". They also tend to trust the fiat currency implicitly and most aren't even aware that at one time gold was used as currency. This trust of government explains a lot about Bill Clinton's popularity with the youth. Government is percieved as the "solution" as opposed to being the "problem".

(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:54 - ID#250121)
lust, greed, avarice, television, & chocolate other proscribed pleasures.....
Eggsactly. Trouble is, many people think all currencies are backed by gold, and will shrug if told otherwise.

One of the great, great things about living here, is that every day, every day, I hear the expression "Good as Gold" from people who are not gold bugs.

Down under it means "OK" or "I understand". We also have another expression in common usage "Go for gold" which means, "give it a shot", "have a go" or "do it"

Nice to be a gold bug in NZ, the land of the Golden kiwi 9999 bullion coin. Uh huh.....

(Mon Jul 13 1998 02:59 - ID#284255)
There are many places where technology has yet to surface.
If you were to travel through Asia you would find many hideaways.
Where you eat fresh fruit from the trees and fish caught straight from the sea.
Modern technology has yet to make an impact on the peaceful isles.
What a way to spend a holiday?

Many parts of OZ and NZ would be designated low impact.
Soley because they are low population areas with plentiful food.

Cairns where I live has a population of 140,000.
30,000 of these numbers are tourists.
There is also a very fertile tablelands close by.
Which produces 200% more food than necessary - lots of exports.
In the event of Y2k being extreme.
Our local population would dwindle - no tourists
And we would have an abundance of food - no exports and no tourists consuming.

I think one needs to take a larger view of one's location.
If there are too many people - think about a holiday.
If there won't be enough food - think about a holiday.

I do not endorse the end of the world - no way.
More so 1 to 6 months of chaos as systems and infrastructures get rebuilt.
But I don't think high density cities are the place to be over this period.
More so a good time to take a six month holiday.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 03:13 - ID#250121)
---Mauritius Orange --- for your Pa

You have a feelthy mouth ;- ) imagine living in our towns without the plague of tourists we have become used to. Heck, there'd be noone crowding our fishing spots and beaches keeping up the price of ice-creams and expresso...

Mind you, a "crowded beach" has a different meaning "Up Over" cf "Down Under" eh?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 03:36 - ID#219363)
I'm seeing your point, and I didn't think you were putting down your run-of-the-mill 20 something *grin*. I do tend to disagree with you, however, in your view of what "our view" of the government is. My friends as a general rule are torn, some think as you believe they think, others are a lot less trusting. Many of my friends, a large majority in fact, actually have much less respect for and trust in the government than even I think is prudent. I mean, 50 years ago it wasn't considered "cool" to be preaching anarchy, but that's just what the a lot of people my age do these days.

When I see a news story about someone wanting the government to do this-or-that for them, I rarely see my friends on there. What I normally think of, and forgive me for the rhetoric, is "some damn baby boomer trying to f*ck up the economy with a national health care system". The president isn't my age and when he was in his 20's, I wasn't even born. I didn't see the 60's folks, I didn't see people land on the moon, and I didn't see Vietnam, even on television.

All I know about the economy is that when my parents were young ( and they weren't all that bright, I say it with love ) , they both owned cars. I can't say the same for a lot of my friends today - and I'm not talking about 18 year old kids trying to impress women with hot wheels, I'm talking 28 year old people trying to get to work.

Just the opposite of "wanting something for nothing", most of the people I hang around with work hard for what they make and don't even pay attention to politics. Most don't even consider themselves participants in the political process ( check out the voter numbers ) , and I admit I fall into that catagory. It's important that nobody confuses "not caring" with "going along with a liberal point of view". I tend to see most of my friends just not caring at all, most seem to think it's all a big joke and not worth their time.

So anyway - in response, I think if you asked 100 people 25 years of age about how much gold their government was holding you would get a response of "who cares" as opposed to a wrong or right answer.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 03:43 - ID#250121)
Dont label me X
I am grateful for your perspective. I shall look forward to hearing more of your point of view, ANOTHER part of the richness at kitco.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 03:45 - ID#430212)
Japan's new prime minister......
to be announced on July 21'st. Read all about it at:

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 04:08 - ID#24135)
RSA Golds 10:15 am
To all ..
Brief rundown .. Jse-golds off 22. Rand at 6.28 firmer
from opening at 6.35.

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 04:12 - ID#24135)
All you young guys look alike ..
for Envy ..
Some of us have confused the 20 year
olds with the 30 year olds.. I'm

(Mon Jul 13 1998 04:29 - ID#432148)
"If a society is to be free, its government has to be controlled." Ayn Rand.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 04:39 - ID#215379)
Farewell, You would have done better to follow thru with own instincts, and sold US bonds and bought gold, and not capitulated to Rubin

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 04:40 - ID#24135)
Counter Party
to all ..
A while ago I asked an open question
as to WHO the offtaker was who purchased
gold from some mines at such high forward
prices ..
ABX at 400 $ and Kidston at $478 were
bothering me ..
A gentleman called "Nugget" aswered me
by e-mail . I assume he will not object
to my sharing his response with you all..
I found it interesting.

" For John Disney..
You recently raised the question of who could be the counter party in
the forward sales of gold ( which are well above market ) - I normally lurk
but have taken the liberty of responding to you by e-mail.
It should be clear that the counter parties are the CBs themselves. They
want to accumulate Gold but cannot be seen to be purchasing on the open
First - this would undermine confidence in the financial system and in
particular the Euro.
Second - it would cause the price to skyrocket before they have the
minimun amount they feel they need. Only the CBs could afford an arrangement like
this because they know that eventually they will have accumulated enough
to control the market.
They presumably use bullion banks as agents to make the purchases thus
disguising their own identity. They apparently have 5 years production of
Gold and I estimate perhaps half of that is out on loan as a result of
hedging deals. But as they accumulate more they can continue to use part
of this for further deals if they wish.
The hedging exercise is a smokescreen to allow CB's to accumulate
large amounts of Gold quietly they could otherwise not .. without pushing
up the price. It is not enough that they buy Gold secretly, they must
also be seen not to want to keep Gold. They create this illusion by
selling gold at very low prices to one another. I believe they nay have
given the game away with the threat of IMF gold sales .. this surfaced
over and over last year .. but NOW when the IMF is strapped for cash, this
is no longer mentioned .. why ??
I belive then when they have accumulated the level of gold they desire
they will begin to openly buy or announce increased backing for Euro.
Overnight their Gold assets will be worth much more than they cost. Then
they have a stronger currency and additional assets they can mobilize
if necessary.
Western democracies are quickly running out of state owned
institutions/companies to sell to offset shortfalls in state
revenue . e.g. Australia sells Telstra to help retire some debt.
State govts. sell transport systems. Maybe Feds sell Post Offices,
not much left. Low cost accumulation of Gold for future sale, or for use
say in gold backed debt instruments is one the last ways I can see for
Govts to produce needed the cash they need without printing it. I suggest
using gold to back dept instruments as this is a in effect a sale BUT it
would not have an immediate negative effect on price.
I don't think many countries .. Australia.. Canada .. etc have figured
this out yet but I believe Europe has a specific game plan.
If you have trouble believing this remember one thing. The CB's are not
stupid enough to reduce the value of their gold assets by a factor
of 4 in exchange for a loan operation at a lower rate of return then they
would normally obtain. No one is this idiotic. They want Gold AND probably stock in
Gold mines. Both at very low prices. They is no alternate way to acomplish
this except by openly purchasing at market. This would be self defeating
as the supply of gold and gold mine script would dry up immediately and
prices roar.
Elliott Wave theory, which is an interpretation of crowd psychology has
always worked well on Gold and is probably a good an indicator as any as
to when the market will finally wake up to this.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:01 - ID#250121)
He come from a land downunder....

now I think you've done us all a service, introducing us to ANOTHER ocker.

Speak up, cobber, there's ears here that hear ya.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:03 - ID#333126)
blooper -- re: why the Nikkei is up
Not a clue, buddy. Your guess is as good as mine. Investors are a weird bunch of people after all... even the goldbugs ( though this sounds like bad flamebait... especially in this discussion group )

Oppernockity tunes but once.

:- )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:15 - ID#329186)
To all outside UK last night i could not get kitco or anything outside the UK
My ISP provide said there was a power cut in new York is this true ?


(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:20 - ID#219363)
This is my last post on this thread, I already feel bad enough *grin*, I don't presume to speak for or even understand what everybody else my age is thinking and feeling. Actually, that has something to do with what I'm about to say ...

goldbug: "If a society is to be free, its government has to be controlled." Ayn Rand.

In my ( single, individual ) view ...

That quote makes a number of assumptions. It assumes that 1 ) you have to take sides, 2 ) there is a point to be debated, 3 ) things progress in a direction, 4 ) freedom and government are mutually exclusive, 5 ) that we've all banded together in some sort of society, and most importantly, 6 ) that anybody cares.

Throwing that quote out there is so much like the stuff I see on television. You've got to be republican or democrat ( or in this case libertarian ) , pro-choice or pro-life, baby boomer or generation-X, pro-Gold or "everybody else".

Life just ain't that simple for me.

I own some gold, and up until recently, I owned some stock. I like some libertarian views, but republicans and democrats make sense sometimes too. I'm all about women ruling their own lives, but I'm not too cool with 8 month old babies being aborted. Life's tough like that and there are a million ways of looking at something ( unless you let television frame the discussion for you )

In other words - you've done a 60'ish kind of thing and made "voting" an issue. Personally, I don't think it's too big a deal. I'm much more interested in what I'm having for breakfast in a few hours and whether my employees are going to produce tomorrow without my intervention.

In short - there's a new game in town. It used to be you had to be either for the home team or the visiting team - now days you can refuse to play, get a glass of wine, and talk about the days events with your friends ... and it's okay.

The Japanesse word/expression "mu" pretty much sums it up. It means in it's most simple form "un-ask the question".

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:25 - ID#250121)

Curious you should say that, for Nick@C and I at Auckland both had trouble accessing US sites one spin ago. I recall asking Nick by email if he thought the US was still there. He wasn't sure, and neither am I.

Was there a deluge of activity towards the World Cup in France ( NOONE said salud! et Vive La Belle France,,,Broken into Les Marseilles....Stphan.......?

In short, I suspect that the WWW infrastructure cannot keep up with the massive popular swings in day it's Landing on Mars, Another it's the Spice Girls/Heavens Gate/World Cup

I also think it is important that kitcoites in all countries advise us, with due regard for bandwidth, when the WWW is not handling the traffic.

Just birds. flocking together, bound by the chains of the skyways.


To any UK resident... have you heard any more about the Lady Di commemorative Silver Coin? would appreciate hearing about it. TIA.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:38 - ID#26793)
BIS says Europe and Japan want stable exchange rates while U.S. prefers floating rates.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:40 - ID#386245)
So I get home after a long, hard day, turn the 'puter on, go straight to Kitco, turn on the little desk-top tv, guess who's on first, no, who's on second, what's on first, Peter Costello, my favourite person, sold all our gold, check the price of the stuff, find that you guys have sold it down below 290, have another sip of beer, start going backwards in chronological order, find a new chum "nugget" who makes good sense, so I'm buying gold at prices depressed by central banks?, huh?, Peter Costello is still talking, Telstra sale got knocked on the head today, gubbmint is shirting itself, was gonna sell our family jewels, pork barrel the shirt out of the electorate, and then call an election, ruined their plans, Mal Coulston did, Shut up P.C., have you heard that Abbot and Costello are big in Japan??, now can anyone please define a run-on sentence for me?? Gonna get another beer and read all your sagacious comments.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:46 - ID#26793)
Ex-Fed Governor says yen going to 160 and next move for U.S. interest rates is up.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:47 - ID#386245)
OK 2
Why should a power cut in New York mean I sit here for 20 minutes waiting for Kitco to come on?? Not just Kitco--everything was forked. Is someone testing their y2k compliance?? BTW--did you get the homing pidgeons I snailmailed you?? I am going big-time into homing pidgeons. Will make squillions soon, if not sooner.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:53 - ID#386245)
OK 3

Has anyone other than mois noticed that as the POG goes down, Donald gets up earlier and earlier??

I'm waiting for the time when Donald sleeps in!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:53 - ID#43349)
Good post about Ex-Fed Lindsey comments. He looks pretty much dead on to me.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 05:59 - ID#43349)
another weekend over
Looks like gold is coming back from it's early morming lows. The Nikkei is coming up. Japan is getting a new look. Life goes on.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:03 - ID#26793)
Bankruptcy wave hits Japan

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:14 - ID#26793)
Nick@C, Gollum
Nick; it is just these perfect Summer mornings, the sky starts to get light about 4AM here. I love these days.

Gollum; high interest rates and a high dollar compete with gold. Not a good sign. See the John Disney-Nugget post for some comfort.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:17 - ID#255151)
Nick of C 05:40

Good rant, mate! Your rants get raves!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:26 - ID#289357)
J. Disney @ Nugget

There's a chap who has posted frequently under this handle on the HotCopper forum re: ECM. As I recall, he seemed to know what he was talking about there, also. The same person??

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:52 - ID#242325)
Reify: I like the Nikkei action. Looks like we will be going much higher. The smart money is buying globally competitive japanese blue chips. Risl/reward potential for good Japanese stocks far better than US equities and probably better than gold stocks as well.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 06:58 - ID#386245)
One thing I have learned...
...after many years of investing...


we've had lots of down lately...

...wonder what's next??

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:02 - ID#29048)
European VAT on gold...
July 13, 1998

Gold Price Still Sags Despite Plan In Europe to Withdraw Sales Tax



LONDON -- Gold continues to languish even though European finance ministers agreed last week to remove the sales tax on coins and other gold-investment transactions, dealers said.

The price of gold dipped 90 cents to $290.80 an ounce in New York on Friday, despite the fact that removing the tax will substantially lower the cost of coin and bar purchases in Europe, dealers said.

"The market believes that it will take time for the 15 national EU governments to enact legislation," said Dick Ware, an official at the World Gold Council, a marketing organization for producer companies. But legislation will come quickly and the new European Union directive, which doesn't include numismatic coins, should be in place by the year 2000, he said.

Germany Bucks Trend

Punitive value-added tax, a form of sales tax, played a major part in deterring nations' efforts to mint and market gold coins in the EU, Mr. Ware said. In Denmark, the VAT rate on gold is 25%, while VAT rates are 20.6% in France, 19% in Italy, 17.5% in the U.K. and 16% in Spain, he said. Germany's VAT rate is 15%, but the nation refused to impose a sales tax on the sale of gold coins and bars, said Philip Klapwijk, European specialist at Gold Fields Mineral Services, precious metals consultants.

Since there wasn't VAT on gold transactions there, German sales of coins and bars of around 45 metric tons were well above levels in other EU nations, he said.

Gold Fields Mineral Services estimated that global fabrication of new coins amounted to 94 metric tons last year, up from 60 tons in 1996 but much lower than 147 tons in 1991. Yet the consultants and the World Gold Council said it is exceedingly difficult to gauge European gold coin and bar demand.

To avoid the tax, investors tended to buy gold in offshore centers that import bars and coins including South African Krugerrands, U.S. Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs and Australian Nuggets. There also aren't estimates of large-scale European physical gold investment, which is well below previous years, gold dealers said.

VAT-Free Activity

"The activity in Germany points to the potential," said Mr. Klapwijk. "Besides locals, Italian, French and other European investors tended to purchase VAT-free coins and bars there," he said.

However, there's a sizable trade in secondhand coins in Europe because

they aren't subject to VAT, Mr Klapwijk noted.

The Gold Council and London Bullion

Market Association began lobbying the EU two years ago, and British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown pushed for an end to the tax during the British presidency of the EU in the first half of this year, gold dealers said.

"The move will enable physical gold to compete on equal terms with other

forms of investment," said Douglas Beadle, assistant director, legal services at N.M. Rothschild & Sons.

"It can only be good news for the coin market," said Peter Hambro, chairman of the Millennium Gold Coin Co. "Since prices will be lower, we'll be able to raise the gold content of our proposed millennium gold coins to around 14 grams from 13 grams," he said.

Robert Guy, a director of N.M. Rothschild said in a recent speech that the European Central Bank should hold transparent gold auctions to eliminate market uncertainty created by sporadic sales by central banks in countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium. Central-bank gold could be sold directly to the European public, he said.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:05 - ID#242325)
As many on this forum grow increasingly bearish, some long time bears are turning bullish

From the SI gold thread:

FWIW. The Mutual Fund Forecaster flashed a buy signal for gold this Friday. Gold funds have been rated
avoid for I don't remember how long. I will tell you that over the past eight years the calls have been very good.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:27 - ID#386245)
In Praise of Impotence... the interest of worldwide goldbuggery I have been searching high and low for an indicator of gold's imminent return to favour. At last I have found it. Eureka!! as Greeks in bathtubs would proclaim.

It appears that a recent article in "The Australian" confirms that girls are turned on by guys that can't...err...ahhh...well, you know!? You see, in this day of std's and aids...certain guys are considered 'safe' by young sirens.

Now what on earth does this have to do with the POG?? Buggered if I know. I did read somewhere that gold shares and...ahh...err...ahem...go up and down together.

cheers from N.@404

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:28 - ID#285121)
OLDGOLD / Smart money ?
Those investing in Japan now ( smart money ) . I don't think so. Smart money isn't buying ( paper ) anywhere IMHO.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:43 - ID#35571)
The good news is that high interest rates ( high in US compared to other countries ) and the high dollar will not remain high forever. Much better that gold be tied to something cyclical than be forever going down.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 07:47 - ID#35571)
Next the cabinent resigns, replacement for Hashimoto picked by 21 July, then new cabinet.

Hopefully the LDP has learned from this and will no longer waffle on decisive action.

It would have been better for Hashimoto to have hurried up and done something even if it was wrong than to be forever doing nothing at all.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:03 - ID#432148)
You and I think practically alike. Yes, I am a Libertarian. Also, 72 years of age ;- ) And I have considered becoming a non voter altho I have voted in every election eligible for, so far. I am also, obviously, a Goldbug, of quite major proportions. Why? I do not trust governments. Plus, all statements presume assumptions! ;- )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:04 - ID#255151)
International Yield Curves Click on "markets", then click on "Int'l Yield Curves". The US and Canada are almost flat now. Britain is fairly strongly inverted. Germany and France are gently sloping, with short term at about 3.5% and long at about 5.3%. Japan--0.5% to 2.5% from short to long. And Gold don't need no stinking yield curve.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:12 - ID#30116)
In the FWIW column... Something about Asia needing the U.S. to avoid a depression.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:19 - ID#347267)
Bearish Signal?
@Old Gold, your 07:05; Used to follow M.Fund Forecaster, did not find their calls to be that accurate or timely. However, bearisness abounds, and is stirring the contrarian in me greatly. I would point out ( to all ) once again that the XAU has NOT, repeat NOT broken the January lows. Two bellweather mutual funds are Invesco Gold FGLDX, which has been the worst performer on the downside; and Gabelli Gold GOLDX, which has been hangin with the rest. Both are still above their recent lows.
Allz I'm sayin is: Be Alert; a BUY signal may be in the wind. Enclosing charts of these and the Gold Forecaster for your perusal.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:22 - ID#347267)
Charts for last post^XAU&d=3m

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:26 - ID#426220)

OLD GOLD: Ref Your "Apparently these pension fund mangers
see Japan, or at least some sectors of the market there, in a
different light than the super bears."

Securities Law in the Land of the Setting Sun are very similar to that of the US. Specifically, Mutual Funds are obligated by their by-laws to maintain at least 90% to 95% invested in prescribed stock market investment objectives at all times.

While some Japanese pension fund managers may be jettisoning their worst dogs, they are forced to reinvest the funds into securities which have not ( at least to date ) been bleeding as badly - tantamount to changing deck-chairs on the Titanic. Futile, unproductive, illusory maneuvers leading inevitably to sinking further.

As you so aptly and astutely indicated many times in the last couple years ( but in reference to other type of investments ) , before the Nikkei finally bottoms there will be a massive sell-off on record volume - thus heralding the "Banzai-Titanic" has reached the ocean floor.

Right now the Banzai-Titanic is listing badly 35 degrees to starboard. NOW, is not the most ideal time to "book passage!"

Delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" before posting URL to Internet finder:

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:30 - ID#413109)
It's nice when we agree
OLD GOLD- good to see you're back at the old stand,
offering "constructive" material, which is what you're
best at, and always were.
Contrary to popular opinion, watch the US$ against
other major currencies. I expect a turn, this too
goes for gold.
Find it uncomfortable calling shots contrary to a
pro like RJ, and oleman.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:35 - ID#426220)
IT'S OFFICIAL: Gold Legal Tender


The equivalent of Hong Kong's Central Bank is called "Hong Kong Monetary
Authority ( HKMA ) ."

Without fanfare the inscrutable HKMA declared they were issuing GOLD COINS which will be considered as LEGAL TENDER. Contemplate what the monumental and transcendental significance of this act.

Firstly, it obviously has the TOTAL APPROVAL of the Sino-Government - which guides and controls the actions of 1.25 billion people. And secondly, the declaration by the Central Bank that its GOLD COINS are now considered LEGAL TENDER must necessarily cause very raised eyebrows of
Messieurs Alan Greenspan, Hans TietMeyer, Eddy George and the irascible Hashimoto.

On June 5th the HKMA announced the issuance of the Hong Kong International Airport Commemorative Gold Coin. The launch of Commemorative Gold Coin - which is issued by the HKMA on behalf of the Government of the Hong Kong - marks the opening of the new Hong
Kong International Airport in July 1998.

The announcement states "The Gold Coin features a design symbolising Hong Kong's ascent into the new century, and bears the standard Bauhinia design on the other side. The Gold Coin is legal tender with a HK$1,000 face value. It is produced by the Royal Mint of the United Kingdom in 22-carat gold."

HOWEVER, THE ANNOUNCEMENT CONSPICULOUSLY OMITS THE WIEGHT OF THE COIN!!!!!!!!!!!! Any novice coin buyer knows from his ABCs that it is imperative to state the weight of any precious metals coin. Especially so, it is also considered LEAGAL TENDER.

Is this all too important AND DELIBERATE OMISSION indicative of what China has in mind?

Let's consider what is revealed. A gold coin is issued - and considered as LEGAL TENDER WITH A HK$1,000 FACE VALUE. But, B-U-T, the Gold Coin will be sold in Hong Kong for HK$3,288 each. EACH, THE MAN SAID! The mintage will be limited to 15,000 pieces worldwide. That's a shade more than $49,000,000.

Is something afoot? Were I forced to guess, I would estimate the coin to be a One or Three ouncer max - since 3 oz of gold at today's price is roughly $1,000. Your guess is as good as mine. Check it out for your self.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:41 - ID#426220)

SILVERFOX: Many thx for very insightful observations:

"IMHO, we are not even in a bear market in PMs in general. Gold is already in a bull market in Australian dollars or South African rand. It is of interest to note that six months ago South African gold mines were on the verge of closure because they were high cost producers. Now with the collapse in the rand, they are expected to be highly profitable. They are not any more efficient today than six months ago. They have simply
been saved by the currency crisis."

"If even a small amount of the money invested in financial assets flees into PMs, then PMs could move substantially higher ( $630 per ounce gold and $8 to $10 silver are easy targets ) ."

Needless to say resident South African Gold Stock Analyst, John Disney, concurs completely - and provides detailed supporting arguments with irrefutable numbers.

Per custom delete letters "en"

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:50 - ID#335190)
Philippine Church opposes pact with U.S. military

MANILA, July 13 ( Reuters ) - The influential Philippine Roman Catholic Church on Monday urged lawmakers to reject an agreement allowing joint military exercises with U.S. troops, saying it was a deal "between a master and lackey."

The agreement will also "promote sexual adventurism and promiscuity," the bishops said, referring to prostitution around U.S. military bases in the Philippines before they were closed down in 1992.

Military exercises between the two countries were suspended two years ago.

The Philippines was a colony of the United States for about half a century starting 1898.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 08:54 - ID#335190)
Italian judge throws out case against U.S. marines in gondola disaster

TRENTO, Italy ( AP ) -- An Italian judge today dropped the case against the crew members of a U.S. Marines jet that severed a ski gondola cable in the Alps, sending 20 people plummeting to their deaths.

Judge Carlo Ancona ruled that Italian courts lacked jurisdiction in the case.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:01 - ID#251238)
Japanese Pensions are prohibited from investing in stocks land
Big Bang was supposed to stimulate economy by freeing up trust funds for investment in something other than government bonds. $9 trillion in government bonds is why interest rates are so low in Japan. Deregulation at year end will let capital invest offshore. The trust funds have no stocks - the banks do.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:03 - ID#335190)
Small arms reductions theme of new Oslo talks

OSLO, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Civil servants from some 20 countries began meeting in Oslo on Monday to formulate an international strategy to reduce the transfer of small arms and other light weapons.

Over 90 percent of the victims of small arms are civilians with women and children accounting for 80 percent of the casualties.

"often find their way into the global illicit marketplace and into the hands of criminals and terrorists."

"These are the weapons that cause the most death and injury. Small arms and light weapons designed and manufactured for defence or internal security purposes should be restricted to military and police organisations only," Axworthy wrote.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:09 - ID#340459)
@vronsky, The HK Gold coin announcement seems good but if it is sold for HK$ 3,288 with face value
HK$ 1,000, I doubt if the interest will go beyond the Gold Coin collectors. The general public may refrain to shell out 3 times the face value specially when the current gold prices leave much to be desired.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:09 - ID#255151)
Government Becoming More Totalitarian

Here is some well written commentary on what our government is up to. Feds are getting less and less nice.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:09 - ID#335190)
Chrysler earns $1 billion in Q2

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. ( AP ) -- Chrysler Corp. Monday said it earned $1.003 billion US in the second quarter. That's a record for the three-month period and more than double its year-ago profits.

The automaker said the profits of $1.51 a share came on $17 billion in sales.

So far this year, the No. 3 U.S. automaker has earned $2.055 billion, or $3.12 per share, compared with $1.5 billion, or $2.17 a share, in 1997.

Sales for the first half of 1998 totaled $33.8 billion, up 11 per cent from $30.5 billion in 1997

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:11 - ID#373284)
I support Ron on this 100%...........................

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:21 - ID#373284)
A lousey way for gold to go higher in price...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
If you have children you should read this. If they are of the proper age they will be taken into service to right the wrongs of a Coward Erect who has certainly, without question made the world a more dangerous place. William Jefferson Clinton will be single handedly responsible for the deaths and maiming of many of Americas fine young men and women who put themselves in harms way.

A lousy way for the metals to appreciatedont you agree

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:32 - ID#269207)
@ to a good morning all
and for Namaste oh Tolerant1 a priceless link to photo of WJC in his earlier years

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:48 - ID#431263)
Egghead (EGGS) @ 25 1/2!
LOFLOL! Is there no end to this internet mania scheiss?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 09:56 - ID#431263)
will be DEVASTATING for US stocks--less than 2%! Market will now begin to discount all the problems that the world will be facing in the next 12-18 months--and it ain't gonna' be pretty! The weak opening this morning in NY does not bode well for higher stock prices this week. Bonds now startin' to tank @5.675 ( Japanese selling? ) Look out BEEEEEELOW!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:01 - ID#431366)
FWIW - there is an apparent post from Farfel on K2 which begins:
Date: Mon Jul 13 1998 04:17
Xenna ( For the Record.... ) ID#212200:
Copyright  1998 Xenna/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fri, 10 Jul 1998 12:46:22 +0100

Dear Bart:

Go to:

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:04 - ID#284255)
Confidentiality of Year 2000 Assessment Rating
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ) , in partnership with state banking regulators, recently completed initial on-site Year 2000 assessments of all state non-member banks. A number of insured financial institutions have asked whether they may disclose to the public the rating assigned to their institution. FDIC regulations strictly prohibit such a disclosure.
Email chatter:
International Herald Tribune Page 1 entitled
The article is continued on Page 8.

At any rate, it seems that Wall Street will be testing their computers today to see how their
computers will deal with the Y2K problem. According to the article, they will be publishing
the results of their tests on the World Wide Web site and the year 2000
experts say that the results of these tests could end up having a huge effect on morale
in the rapidly growing legions of specialists working on the problem.

Further, the article seems to indicate that if the problem is not solved, the effects on the
world may be much more severe than what you have been mentioning.
I also unable to access the WWW.
Perhaps their testing is testing the system.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:05 - ID#431263)
And the prospect of an imploding US bond market BEFORE he retires next April!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:08 - ID#242325)
Reify: Was reading a column the other day which stated that one of the most successful speculators of the century ( the name escapes me ) said that he was right just 70% of the time. Good as they are oldman and RJ will get it wrong sometimes.

The key to speculative success is to limit losses when you are wrong but play for big stakes when the cards are going your way.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:10 - ID#284255)
Fast-Forward to 2000: Wall Street Takes Stock of Millennium Bug

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:14 - ID#28594)
Midas--HK gold...
If I remember rightly, that coin is in HK $...
It's been some time ago, but the reckoning was, denominated in
HK$, it was something around an ounce. Nonetheless, nice to see
the Chinese cranking out gold coins [one daren't say, "Stamping out gold coins."] {:- ) ) bbml

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:16 - ID#431263)
GO ONTO THE INTERNET! Gott im Himmel! Their share prices would literally SOAR in value overnight, even with a plunging RAND and soaring dollar! You listening, Peter Munk? : )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:17 - ID#426220)
South East Asia - A Major Call to Buy Emerging Asia

Internationally- acclaimed Gold Consultant, Frank Veneroso shares his considered thoughts about prospects in the Far-East.

"It has been our view that the economies of Thailand, Indonesia,
and Korea would remain in serious trouble until the disastrous
deflationary policies of the IMF and the US Treasury were abandoned."

Mr. Veneroso comments about the recent declines in interest rate levels in several Asian countries: "Lower rates will help stem a raft of corporate defaults by reducing the cost of repaying an estimated $600 billion of corporate debt and making it cheaper for companies to borrow more money for investment."

Whereas Mr. Veneroso is very critical of IMF policies to date, he feels the Asian countries will again regain their "Tiger" image. His full report may be read at the following URL. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:20 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' Yes, I still get a chuckle from this photograph. I think it was
Reify who sent it to me originally...but no matter. I appreciate it... Gulp to ya...its never too early to drink tequila...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:22 - ID#431263)
Hope he's better at Asia than he is at gold! If ya' follow his advice you'd better be able to dollar cost average over the next five years MINIMUM! This ain't over by a LONG SHOT!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:22 - ID#242325)
Gold and bonds
Gold improving as bonds tank. This is as it should be. Yes?

With ex-Fed governor Lindsey predicing the FOMC will hike rates before too long, thise expecting big drops in gold and bond yields from here are apt to be disappoointed.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:29 - ID#431263)
MMM at a new 52-week LOW!
8 OIL DRILLERS HAVE HIT NEW 52-week lows this morning! Drillers are in BIG trouble if oil doesn't move higher SOON! Just what OPEC wants! Are ya' feeling the driller's pain yet BC?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:32 - ID#284255)
It's time to be a techno-conservative.
Arrive Late To The Win98 Party

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:33 - ID#431263)
PUT HM AND ABX AND NEM ON THE NET!!! Bond yield now challenging 5.70%!!!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:37 - ID#431263)
BUY! BUY! BUY! : )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:37 - ID#284255)
It will be more lucrative than crime"
Jailbirds are brought in to beat millennium bug

Millennium bug claims hit Lloyd's
Last month all the aviation syndicates wrote to the airlines they insure to warn them that millennium bug claims will be excluded from policies.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:42 - ID#335190)
"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
A gold medal which held the inscription: "The TRUTH....will find friends...those who will toil for it, if need be die for it."


The period between 1901 and 1917, between the beginning of Theodore Roosevelt's administration and USofA entry into the First World War, is frequently called "The Progressive Era"

Largely a misnormer, it has, however, a certain validity in that labor's long fight was beginning to quicken, influence, and move the great middle class whose standards and ways of life have always been regarded as the country's.

This middle class awakening, backed by labor and often brought into being by the struggles of labor and the farmers, was becoming common to the whole country by 1910. It was expressed in the exposures by those whom Theodore Roosevelt had derisively dubbed "muchrakers" journalists like Ida Tarbell, Lincoln Steffens, and Ray Stannard Baker, who demonstrated again and again to millions of readers that American industry and American government had the common denominator of colossal graft.

It was under the impetus of all this as of numerous strikes and widerspread industrial unrest, that Theodore Roosevelt's "SQUARE DEAL" and Woodrow Wilson's "NEW FREEDOM" came into being, programs of protest forced on two CONSERVATIVE politicians by the increasing militance of the people. Both were efforts, often demagogic and consistently ineffective, to liberalize the two main parties by exerting a measure of control over Wall Street.

Roosevelt, who in 1895 had demanded the Debs and Altgeld ( USofA labor leaders & victims of "UnAmerican" and "Foreign agent" charges ) be "placed before a stone wall and shot" was scoring "malefactors of great wealth" after his election on the Republican ticket in 1904.

Soon he was accused of being a "wild-eyed revolutionist" and some businessmen saw in him a traitor to his class as he campaigned on the rump Progressive ticket in 1912.

And Woodrow Wilson was declaring, as he sought and won the Presidency on the Democratic ticket in 1912, that "A nation is as great, and only as great, as her rank and file."

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:43 - ID#280245)
Them who has...
"While the dollar, the euro and the yen will be the most important currencies in the world for some time to come, it would be a mistake to ignore the role of gold. GOLD IS CURRENTLY THE SECOND MOST IMPORTANT RESERVE ASSET. Total above-ground gold stocks amount to about 110,000 tons, worth $1.1 trillion at $10 million a ton. Financial authorities hold about a third of this--more exactly, 1.1 billion ounces--worth $330 billion at $300 an ounce.

EU countries hold 458 million ounces, counting gold held by the European Monetary Institute on their behalf. By comparison, the U.S. holds 262 million ounces. EUROPE WILL THUS HAVE A STRONG VOICE IN DETERMINING THE ROLE PLAYED BY GOLD IN THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM."
"The Case for the Euro" Robert Mundell, professor of economics at Columbia University [from WSJ article]

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:43 - ID#266105)

Nick@404 -- just wondering if you're a member of
this club yet--

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:45 - ID#280245)
And a "Heads UP" for international bond holders...
On redenominating debt-
From "Legal Implications of the Euro" EMU Report

14. Whereas in accordance with the conclusions reached by the European
Council at its meeting held in Madrid, new tradeable public debt will be
issued in the euro unit by the participating Member States as from 1
January 1999; whereas it is desirable to allow issuers of debt to
redenominate outstanding debt in the euro unit; whereas the provisions on
redenomination should be such that they can also be applied in the
jurisdictions of third countries; whereas issuers should be enabled to
redenominate outstanding debt if the debt is denominated in a national
currency unit of a Member State which has redenominated part or all of the outstanding debt of its general government;

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:48 - ID#280245)
Debt Redenomination...
Yves-Thibault de SILGUY
The euro and the international monetary system DN: SPEECH/97/182 Date: 1997-09-18 PDF: EN

"A. The euro will become a major international currency

"firstly, the substitution effect: it will replace currencies which are already being used increasingly for international financial deals. The European currencies' share of international bond portfolios rose from 20% in 1981 to 37% in 1995; secondly, the size effect: once it is set up, the bond market in euros should automatically become one of the two largest in the world. All new government debt issues by States belonging to economic and monetary union will be denominated in euros,

AND MANY STATES, INCLUDING FRANCE AND GERMANY, HAVE ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WILL CONVERT THE BULK OF THEIR OUTSTANDING GOVERNMENT DEBT INTO EUROS ON 1 JANUARY 1999. The size and depth of the euro market will contribute to reducing the costs of using the euro to a level close to that of the dollar. This will reinforce the attractiveness of the European currency investors seeking to diversify their financial holdings."

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:49 - ID#284255)
Couldn't be true???
Some computer experts see a bumpy road ahead
TV ads warn of date with destitute
Banks Can't Boast About FDIC's Y2K Inspections,2334,13980,00.html
Microsoft has yet to complete its Y2K testing
Don't buy new MSFT software.
Don't keep old MSFT software.
Sounds like we should make MAC's of gold and switch to them...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:51 - ID#413109)
Right on Bro
Not my language ( borrowed ) -
The key to speculative success is to limit losses when you are wrong but play for big stakes when the
cards are going your way.
We used to say, let your profits run.

Have to stop agreeing with you. I've got to keep my accredited
contrarian membership.
Still haven't received your new email, which I blew the last time.
Please repeat.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 10:52 - ID#284255)
Lights on - then lights off. Wish they'd throw some light on the subject.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:03 - ID#244418)
Japan and Russia --a New Partnership

Global Intelligence Update

Red Alert

July 13, 1998

Japan and Russia Moving Toward a Coalition of Cripples

We are entering an important week. Japan has suddenly, but not

unexpectedly, entered a period of intense internal political crisis as

Prime Minister Hashimoto, having lost many more seats than expected in the

upper house of the Japanese parliament on Sunday, prepares to resign. In

the meantime, the Russian financial crisis is lurching to some sort of

temporary conclusion as Russian negotiations with the IMF close in on an

agreement that will buy Russia a short breathing spell. Thus, the world's

leading economic cripples have now bought themselves another few weeks or

months in which they can excuse themselves from dealing with the profound

economic, social and political problems that confront them. However, it is

not only paralysis that binds these two countries together. There are

increasing signs of cooperation between Japan and Russian designed to place

the United States in a position where it can no longer resist pressures to

underwrite a massive bailout of Asia and Russia without the compensatory

trade concessions or painful social reforms. We expect this process to

proceed not in spite of, but because of, political chaos in Moscow and


Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko is going to arrive in Tokyo on

Monday evening. As this report is being prepared, Kirienko is airborne

and there is no evidence that Hashimoto's pending resignation will cause

Kirienko to turn around. The Russian visit to Tokyo had been postponed

once before when then-Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin lost his job in a

shakeup of the Russian cabinet. Kirienko's visit is occurring at an

extraordinary moment in which the strains on both the Russian and Japanese

political systems are becoming almost unbearable. Intense conversations

have been taking place between Moscow and Tokyo over the past few days

concerning their mutual economic crisis. During the past weekend, as

Russian officials negotiated a loan from the IMF, Yeltsin and Hashimoto

held telephone consultations, which resulted in Japan essentially endorsing

the Russian position on the IMF bailout. Japan, usually a hard-liner on

IMF bailouts, has suddenly found itself backing the Russian position,

perhaps in anticipation of its own coming needs.

In essence, Japan and Russia are agreeing that the United States, through

the IMF, should help bail them both out of trouble. Russian Ambassador to

Japan, Alexander Panov, said in an interview on Friday that Japan and

Russia were moving to what he called "a semi-alliance." Since the only

point of such an alliance would be to increase leverage on the U.S. and

force support for a massive bailout that would forestall political crises

in both Russia and Japan, the coming week could prove extraordinarily

important in defining the international system. We expect territorial

issues to take a back seat to coordination between the two countries as

they unite to try to force the U.S. to solve their problems.

Complicating matters, of course, was Sunday's defeat of the Japanese

Liberal Democratic Party in elections to the Upper House of the Diet. The

defeat does not legally compel Prime Minister Hashimoto to resign. He

still holds a 13-seat majority in the lower house. However, the elections

had become a referendum on the LDP's performance in managing the ongoing

economic crisis. LDP leaders, including Hashimoto, had publicly stated if

they won less than 61 of the seats being contested, Hashimoto would resign.

It appears at this moment that the LDP has won only 44 seats. This should

not come as a surprise to any rational observer, since the LDP's

performance has been abysmal. It is amazing to us that anyone in the LDP

believed that they would do well in the election. We suspect that the

pledge was a subtle way for LDP party bosses to force Hashimoto out of

office. By creating a referendum they could not possibly win, they got a

chance to reshuffle the cabinet without an election. Thus, the brilliant

Machiavellianism for which the LDP is legendary continues to operate, even

in the face of disaster. Of course, given Japan's problems, the subtlety

of the LDP leadership seems wasted here. As the saying goes, they are

rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic.

To be fair, Hashimoto did as well as he could have with the disastrous hand

he was dealt. Japan's financial situation is so poor that almost all

proposed solutions would have devastating consequences. But it remains

easier for the LDP to hold a single personality responsible, since the

alternative would be for the LDP to face the bankruptcy. This should be

restated more broadly. The fact is that Japan's central problem is that it

makes absolutely no difference who is selected to replace Hashimoto as

Prime Minister and it doesn't matter very much whether his replacement is

selected by the LDP's bosses or in a general election. Anyone who emerges

from the LDP ranks will follow the same paralyzed policy as Hashimoto.

Anyone selected from outside the LDP will face the real permanent

government in Japan, which is the government bureaucracy, the corporate

groupings called keiretsu and their umbrella organization, the Keidanren.

Policy is made there or, more precisely, the complex and overlapping

interests represented there render it impossible to make policy. An

insider is a prisoner of the system. An outsider is helpless in the face

of the system.

On the surface, Sunday's elections appear a victory for Japan's reform

Democratic Party. But the most interesting figure is the stunning gains of

Japan's Communist Party, which apparently won 13 seats ( up from 6 ) ,

compared to 27 won by the Democratic Party and 44 by the LDP. This does

not mean that Japan is going to go Communist. That will not happen. But

it is a measure of the level of frustration and anger in Japan that the

Communists have emerged as a major electoral force. From our point of

view, it is the strongest indication yet of the political pressures

developing beneath the rigid surface of Japan's political life. The

economic crisis won't go away. The pressure will continue to build.

Extremist forces will be strengthened. The center will find it extremely

difficult to hold. The LDP cannot make policy. Its opposition cannot

govern. Frustration will strengthen the margins.

This is the Tokyo that Russian Prime Minister Kirienko flies into on

Monday. He is traveling from Moscow's intractable economic and political

crisis into Japan's intractable economic and political crisis. This is an

extremely important meeting of the world's two leading economic cripples.

The real issue to be discussed, of course, is not the IMF, but the U.S.

Japan badly wants the U.S. to provide financial support for Asia in general

and Japan in particular. It also wants the U.S. to make this commitment

without demanding reciprocity, such as meaningful reforms in the Japanese

economy that would permit U.S. companies to enter the Japanese market. It

is using the Russian bailout as precedent for its own looming need for

international help for its banking system and the rest of Asia's.

The U.S. is not likely to provide this help. First, it is not clear that

any amount of help can stabilize Asia's economic system. All it can do is

postpone the inevitable, wrenching consequences of Asia's generation-long

obsession with market share over profitability. Second, it is clear that

the amount of help the U.S. would potentially be able to give is completely

insufficient to shore up Asia's economies. Third, it is clear that the

amount of aid the U.S. is prepared to give is ludicrously less than what is

required. Finally, it is not clear that it is in the U.S. interests to

solve Asia's problems.

Asia's only argument for help, which is that Asia's problems will swamp

American prosperity, simply doesn't stand up to simple arithmetic. Asia's

own protectionism has protected the U.S. from over-dependence on exports to

Asia. Even the fabled Japanese withdrawal of funds from the U.S. capital

market would not mean anything, even were it to occur. First, where will

the Japanese put their money if not in the United States? Japanese

businessmen are not about to deposit it in Japanese banks or stocks. If

they move the money to Europe, its net effect on the U.S. will be zero,

since money is fungible. Moreover, if you are facing bankruptcy in Japan,

you are hardly likely to bring money out of hiding. Japanese businesses

with money in the U.S. are not about to squander cash trying to stave off

inevitable bankruptcies. They will leave that to governments and the IMF.

So the Japanese threat of selling U.S. bonds and securities is as hollow as

their banking system.

Now, what goes for Japan goes triply for Russia. The kind of support

needed to stabilize Russia's financial system can only come from the United

States via the IMF. Sufficient aid is not forthcoming. The U.S.

government will back temporary measures designed to buy time for U.S.

investors in Russia to liquidate what they can and reduce their exposure.

But the sort of comprehensive resolution of Russia's problems cannot

possibly be achieved. The bright young men governing Russia do passably

well at meetings at Harvard and with Western bankers. But they are, by

definition, incapable of coping with the brutal realities of Russian

society. Russia today reminds us increasingly of Iran in the last days of

Shah of Iran, as Western bankers conduct negotiations with Westernized

technocrats, sublimely oblivious to the volcano building beneath them. A

Russian default is now, we believe, a given. The timing depends entirely

on the IMF, and timing, to be sure, is the only option left open.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:04 - ID#413109)
Why To Kay
I'm just a layman, when it comes to all this technical y2k stuff, but like my friend
Sharefin, I read a lot and soak it up like a sponge.
I've come to a simple conclusion, right or wrong----
everyone that's dealing with this y2k problem and spending upwards to
1/2 trillion dollars, are putting their money in the wrong places.
What good is a bank, or any company that has a hope to be compliant,
when the electricity goes????Then the water and sewage???

Governments, of the largest countries in the world should have, and still should,
put all their efforts behind solving this problem. If a nuclear plant blows, you can
forget being compliant, if you're a business, no????

What have I missed, or where is my reasoning wrong?
Tackle the most important problems first, then work on the impossible later!!!!

Where are today's leaders???

Playing world cup football, no doubt.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:11 - ID#212197)
@SDRer: Your pointer to and quotation of Prof. Robert Mundell's..
"The Case for the EURO".

Thanks a lot.
That's actually the best essay I ever read about the EURO.
Offers a lot of economic jewels also to assess the "Assymetric Shock" situations worldwide.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:14 - ID#224363)
Now isn't this interesting...
From reuters:

US Treasuries fall further, safe-haven bid shaken

*U.S. Treasuries continue to fall in widespread selling. *Russia aid plan seen cutting into flight-to-quality bid. *Japan outlook cloudy, but mkt grants reform credence for
now. *Some dealers say Tsys now oversold, due for bargain hunting. *Talk Asian central bank, maybe China's, sold bonds earlier.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:18 - ID#373284)
The fraud government of the Coward Erect is about to get bent over and
reamed by those who have set him up. Unfortunately America gets it too, but the American people elected the bottom feeder William Jefferson Clinton and they deserve what is now being served up on the international plate. A historic plate of Crow...uh huh...

Dave in CO
(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:19 - ID#229103)
Your reasoning is fine IMO. In the U.S., I can only guess the innocent reason is that the administration is waiting until after the Nov. elections to give us the truth. But the thought I must keep pushing from my mind is that maybe this government, the government who has given us the IRS, Waco, and Ruby Ridge, e.g., welcomes what may be in store and the increased control they can exert.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:27 - ID#35571)
Very interesting. Cracks in the dollar?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:27 - ID#373284)
This is priceless...the UN should be shut down...lets co-op the building in NY

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:31 - ID#373284)
Newt and the Coward Erect, no and silver to soar very soon people

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:33 - ID#335190)
Russia says could have got $25 bln if wanted

MOSCOW, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Russia could have raised $25 billion if it had agreed to proposals from a number of commercial banks eager to offer loans in tandem with a new $15 billion IMF-led credit package to Russia, Kremlin debt negotiator Anatoly Chubais said on Monday.

"We had some very curious offers from a number of commercial banks, large-scale offers," he told a news conference. "I can personally say that there was talk of $10 billion."

IMF's Camdessus says new loans to strengthen Russia

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - International Monetary Fund Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on Monday a multibillion-dollar loan package for Russia and reforms by the government would strengthen the country's fiscal position.

"The strengthening of Russia's economic policies -- both fiscal and structural -- the large additional financial resources, and the debt conversion scheme, should fundamentally improve the financial situation of the Russian government," Camdessus said in a statement.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:34 - ID#35571)
In a nutshell
"We're not really gold traders, we're foreign exchange traders now,"
said one dealer of recent bullion activity

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:41 - ID#335190)
FOCUS-Romania minister challenges U.S. copter deal

BUCHAREST, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Finance Minister Daniel Daianu on Monday challenged a plan to co-produce helicopters with a U.S. firm, Romania's biggest post-communist project, on the eve of his president's departure for Washington.

The International Monetary Fund, which is examining whether to renew loans to the country effectively suspended earlier this year, has also raised strong objections to the deal.

The accord allows Bell to acquire 70 percent of aircraft maker Intreprinderea Aeronautica Romana ( IAR ) Ghimbav which will co-produce the AH-1RO "Dracula" helicopters, derived from the AH-1W Supercobra used by the U.S. Marine Corps. Bell is to invest $50 million in IAR's plant north of Bucharest.

Dissenting ministers have said Romania can ill afford to run up additional debts with the economy still contracting and market reforms leaving almost untouched key issues such as privatisation and restructuring of communist-era industry.

Daianu told Adevarul the plan raised stark choices for Romania's coalition government.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:46 - ID#350179)
Morning all.. wheres the SSM?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:53 - ID#335190)
July 13, 1998

Russia, IMF reach agreement on bailout package, official says

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- After weeks of negotiations, the International Monetary Fund and other lenders have agreed on a $14.8 billion US loan package to help stabilize Russia's financial markets, officials said today.

The tentative deal matches Russia's request for up to $15 billion to see it through the latest financial crisis. Millions of Russians have been pushed into poverty by the country's shrinking economy during the 1990s, and the infusion of cash is designed to ward off another big downturn.

The IMF will provide $12.5 billion, while the World Bank will chip in $1.7 billion and Japan will provide $600 million, Interfax reported. In Japan, where Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko is visiting, the two countries put the Japanese loan at $800 million.

The IMF's board must formally approve the agreement, and a meeting is scheduled for July 20 in Washington, Chubais said.

The latest crisis comes as many Russian workers are receiving their salaries months late and labor unrest is on the rise.

Economists note the loan does nothing to address perennial problems such as the government budget deficit and Russia's porous tax collection system

There was no immediate word on what conditions the IMF would impose on Russia in exchange for the loan. The IMF has often been critical of Russia's inability to collect taxes, which leaves the government chronically short of cash.

However, the Communists who lead parliament have balked at measures that would raise taxes. Parliament plans a special session Wednesday to further debate the measures.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:55 - ID#350194)
World Leaders
Reify - At the World Cup, or on the links with Korea's Ambassador?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 11:58 - ID#411259)
..... Yes...I can be wrong....Occasionally .....


A very successful international gold trader of 20 + years experience once told me that in his most profitable year ever, he was WRONG 74% of the time. The other 26% were home runs. You are right about limiting loss, though. Even so, occasionally the market will gap up or down on the open and blow right through protective stops. Volatility is where the big money is made. It is also where the risk lays.


Lan Man
(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:00 - ID#320108)
@The 104th Congress' nightmarish agenda of control
From WorldNetDaily an article from Claire Wolfe

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:12 - ID#35571)
Y2K in a minor key
And then there is the problem of the leap year. Years are normaly leap years if they are divisble by four unless they are century years except where the year is divisible by 400. Thus the years 1700, 1800, 1900, for example were not leap years although 2000 will be.

Chips that only check for divisble by four will be OK. This is a case where the dumbest luck out. Those that take into account century years will be wrong after February unless they also account for the 400 year rule. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:23 - ID#174239)
RJ: Prediction accuracy
If somone can be wrong 74% of the time but still come out ahead on the 26% right predecitions, isn't it just as likely that somone can be right 74% of the time, yet still come out behind? I wonder how many people bought gold when it was on a steep incline at $500/oz and are still waiting to double thier investment. You would have to be make a lot of correct predictions since to recover from that single mistake.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:30 - ID#410198)
Heres a bit of irrational logic,if most financial experts agree you should hold between 5-10% of
your investment portfolio in a hard assert you control,why be concerned about daily ups and downs,buy it bury it forget it and pray you never have to use it,trying to guess whats going to happen is like looking for a honest politician

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:35 - ID#35571)
Even harder to find is a poor politician...unless he's a beginner.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:39 - ID#347235)
Glad to hear the wife is well. Seems like nothing much has happened in the week I was away, gold is still in the same range from which I bought, so I still feel good about my purchases since January. The small amount I have been holding since the 60s keeps me from worrying a lot.
Wish I had bought more then, or not sold off in 80.

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:42 - ID#24135)
to all
two newsflashes of note ..

1. The EU will remove vat from all gold transactions..
including coins. The new directive should be in effect
by 2000.
2. Robert Rubin will visit RSA TOMORROW, as part of
am eight day visit to Africa. I wonder what he will
think of Tito the Banker.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:49 - ID#410198)
Gollum...the last poor politicians were the signers of the Declaration of Independence.....

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:51 - ID#411259)
..... The more things change the more they stay the same .....

I read the alleged Farfel post on K2. After wigging out and spewing the worst sort of profanity and racial garbage ever presented on this sight, the F fellow blames me for all the ills of this site and this world because I short gold.

Nowhere to be found is any hint of apology or acknowledgment that his actions were the most ignoble, base, and vile ever witnessed here, as many others have also noted. Instead, he has a reason for his hate filled outbursts: RJ.

He states, referring to me, "So, he will never forgive my having "called a spade a spade."


"In that regard, he is extremely childish and his temper tantrums ( which I have mocked ) are symptomatic of an inflated ego that simply cannot be appeased."

It would seem that it is the F person who cannot forgive calling a spade a spade. I look at the gold market and see it is going down, I say so, it goes down, and F thingie thinks its all my fault. In his many rantings he again and again expressed the idea that somehow Kitco was controlling the gold market and what we say here matters a whit in the grand scheme. Methinks his opinion of our worth to this market is overestimated.

As for tantrums, I think the F one has redefined tantrum for all time. As one poster ( who, it seems, does not agree with anything I say, nor even like me much ) pointed out, that even when I was at my most "rude" I still stayed within the bounds of good taste. The F entity could not break the logic so he responded with personal attacks. When he found that game was not working, he simply flipped his wig.

Many here disagree with my take on these markets, and many express these disagreements to me. These do not dissolve into fights because they lack the crucial component to starting a fight: A personal attack. When F felt the argument slipping away, he employed the very method he decries, he changes the subject and attacks.

One more quote goes, "As my wife has often said, God blessed me with uncanny writing skills that compel lemmings to stop and think". This is the same kind of insult he accuses gold bears of making. All who do not agree with the F spot are, Lemmings". Also, his writing is not all that good. He has a wonderful vocabulary and manages to string together coherent sentences but these are just matters of construct. When trying to comprehend the strings of words, we are faced with endless clichs ( which are a shortcut to ACTUALLY thinking ) and a rhetorical repetitiveness that one grows ever more weary of wading through. Perhaps if he had something original to say, his contributions here would be missed, but his positions are represented well here by many who have a firmer grasp on market realities and are not weighted down by an all consuming love of the yellow metal regardless of where it is headed.

May I also mention that in the F vessels last two drag out fights, I was nowhere to be seen? I stayed out completely. So his embarrassing loss of control was accomplished without any baiting from me.

Rather than recognize his crime against this sight, he once again passes blame and thinks others are responsible for his actions. Redemption is not to be found in his person. His post is a tad paranoid also, yes? Seems violent types are out to get him. I too post rather controversial positions yet anybody here knows exactly where I can be found. After reading F guy ( FOR I HOPE THE LAST TIME ) I find it is all "As Before".

This is not a well man.


He is not

(Mon Jul 13 1998 12:56 - ID#242300)
Seeing red
How does this sound? The communist victory in the Japan elections on Sunday is good news for Asia. Not!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:04 - ID#288186)
Several reasons for Gold to rise in U.S. dollars very soon!!!
A presidency in jeopardy would cause a confidence problem and thus
a small rise in Gold.

A stronger realization of Y2K problems soon approaching would also
cause a confidence problem and thus a small rise in Gold.

A "soon to be" whiff of inflationary problems on the horizon would cause
a flight to inflationary hedges such as Gold which would thus cause a
medium rise in Gold.

A falling U.S. dollar, which is the crux of the whole matter, would cause
a confidence problem, inflationary problems, etc and would thus cause
a large rise in Gold.

A presidency problem + Y2K problem + inflationary problem + U.S. dollar
problem would thus cause a HUGE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD!!! ( OF COURSE,
That's my assessment IMHO.
Thanks, Fox-Man
P.S. If these come together in a relatively short time frame, LOOK OUT!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:08 - ID#411259)
..... PS .....

If his e-mail is to be believed, the F particle is no longer so anonymous, yes?
He now has a first initial, a last name, and his prior posts mentioned where he lives.
Last time this happened to a rabidly anonymous poster ( HepCat )
It took less that a day for an entire dossier to be posted on John Messiner ( I think I spelled that right ) .
Anonymity only works if you dont give your name.
Do not blame me, I was not the one who posted the e-mail.
Dont know who Xeena is, but a confidence has been breached it would seem.
I will pursue this no further, I dont care who he is.
I would not shake his hand should I meet him
And I would not invite him to sit
Not this fellow


(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:12 - ID#335190)
Lan Man @ 12:00
The material that you posted, is an eye opener eh!
Gives considerable support for the slogan:
"Be Quiet...Consume...And Die."

On a positive note, such information would likely not have been available, without easy access via the internet. Yes, good things will be made available to our respective citizen's, IF, people will read.

Your posted material is a must read. Lurker's and other poster's at Kitco, read this material, your future and your children's future is at stake. Freedom Liberty Democracy, all those good things, that you have shot your mouth off about. Time to stand forth and be counted.

On the note to Lurker's. Can anyone at this site give an estimate of the number's of lurker's.
Could those that are lurking, just put a name to the registration form, and give us an idea, IF, and total amount of lurker's, who are present.

You lurker's only have to have a name, and submit four words "TEST". Give it a try, everyone will get an idea of the numbers lurking. Are you not interested in the numbers of lurker's also?

Great material Lan man.
Thanks Take Care

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:13 - ID#147201)
Grizz re email
If I got your email, I didn't recognize it. Please reply to Thanx

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:20 - ID#350179)
Just in
Small hotel fire in downtown Denver...rumour, unsubstantiated - but there is smoke.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:21 - ID#411259)
..... Early Birds .....

Seems the name at the end of the F mail has been removed.
Only those who read it early know this man has a name.
I will not post this name. I don't like him, but he has his right to privacy.

Even he

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:24 - ID#249285)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:24 - ID#342397)
Thanks a lot for your reply to my question of yesterday.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:25 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about Gold bulls and bears -- Implications for the EURO
All: Why did gold rally in 1993 during the British currency crisis, and not during the SEAsia crisis? Part of the answer lies in the fact that the US was in a recession at the time and the US FED had opened the money supply floodgates. So Gold and the US dollar went up for a time.

Conclusion: Gold goes up when the US dollar is inflating ( obvious ) , but it also goes up during currency crises, at least during non-deflationary periods. We know from first hand experience that gold can go down during deflationary crises ( outside the USA ) , as the SEAsians were forced to sell the gold they had saved. We also know that 90's era CBer's think relatively little of gold during this deflationary era, and tend to sell it or loan it, as it makes little profit for the CB's. A cash crunch could trigger more gold sales or loans.

So, would gold and the US dollar go up again if a European crisis or a Russian revolution occurred? Europe does not seem to be in an inflationary mode, and neither does the USA. The US dollar would certainly go up, but it is not clear whether gold will go up, or repeat the bearish events of SEAsia.

My guess is the following: A EURO crisis -- unlikely during the honeymoon period this year -- might be bullish for gold since we are talking about a western currency crisis. However, without inflation lurking in the background, the desire for gold might be damped, and a gold bear could result instead. If there was a Russian revolution, however, gold and the US dollar would go up, due to fear of uncertainty. All depends on whether a European 'flight for safety' would be to gold and to the US dollar, or just to the US dollar.

When there are so many bearish trends in the price of gold, gold investing experts are best to focus on intermediate-term gains, buying on bottoms, and selling on rallies, or putting a small percentage of their portfolio into gold equities, and holding very long term for the eventual rally.

Is it possible that the FED will inflate the US dollar? Right now the US economy is still fairly strong, but corporate profits are dropping. We still have the GM strike, which may lead to some inflationary labor pressures -- or GM moving more of its operations overseas. One item is fairly clear -- LT interest rates are going to drop for some time, and the yield curve will invert if the FED does not lower rates. Also, the FED cannot let the US dollar rise too much more, given the fragile nature of the world economies. And Japan would benefit from dropping US interest rates. So forces are gathering to inflate the US dollar -- to maintain the stability of the world's currencies -- and to prop up the 'now old' US market bull.

To complicate matters, I think the US 'powers that be' would like the US markets to correct now, so that they can recover by election time. This would certainly bring down the US dollar. However, I don't think this will happen soon, given the sheer volume of foreign investors who want the relative security of US dollars.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:27 - ID#347235)
I too read his alleged post on K-2, I doubt that F* wrote it , it was too well written, maybe his wife wrote it. I know the last name he used but suspect it was an alias. I don't really care.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:31 - ID#266110)
@ tolerant1 -- RE: CFTN your friday post.
I had to shut down the electronic wizard before I had the opportunity to thank you for your opinion and thoughts. I am working with the data and determining whether I will pursue this as a course of investment.

Again thanks.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:35 - ID#430260)
Pinky's Tailing Box In Conjunction with SI's At a Bottom Now for Gold
Presents: Young Frankgreeenspan.

Dr. Frankenstein?


You're putting me on.

No, it's pronounced Frankgreenspan. You must be E-gold.

No, it's pronounced Igor.

But they told me it was E-gold.

They also said the XAU would rally this summer.

Well, come Igor, we have much to do! Mankind is flawed. There is far too
much irrational exuberance out there. In spite of our portfolio's
magnificence, if it were not for this continuous stream of motor
impulses to buy mutual funds, the market would collapse a bunch
... of ... broccoli! We must create a being that is content to stay in
cash before it is too late.

Yes Master, but wouldn't it be easier to just create more money supply
to feed the current stock market bubble?
Ah Inga, you're here. Mmmmm ... mmmmm! What a knockout fund portfolio
you have.

Mmmm! The feeling is mutual. Is it true the former master of this castle
advised selling every stock at Dow 6500?

You are talking about the nonsenical ravings of a lunatic mind.

You mean the former resident Frankenstein?

No, the former market analyst Elaine Garzarelli.
Okay, Igor, the experiment is ready to begin. Go into the specimen room
and bring me the perfect brain.

Yes Master.
Ah, you're back already Igor. Now we slip it in the cranium like so is done.

Master, a storm approaches.


Master, your creation breathes.

Igor, how many times must I tell you not to interrupt my work with
trivial details.

Master, gold just edged above $300 an oz again.

Igor something is wrong with my creation--it's going berzerk. What brain
did you bring me?

Why, AB's brain.

It wasn't AB Normal's brain, was it?

No, of course not Master--ABX's brain.

But ABX's brain malfunctioned almost to the point of acquiring the

Maybe it was AB Normal's...

He's gotten away, Igor. We must find him! With his brain as it is now,
he will never understand the workings of the financial world, unless...

Unless what Master?

Unless we administer a huge dose of silly pills!
Knock Knock!

Come in! You are a stranger. Here, come to my table and refresh

T-h-ha-a-a-n-k you!.

You're more than welcome friend.

Wh-a-t i-s y-ou-r n-a-m-e?

Everybody calls me Bill.

Wh-y d-id you poor ho-t soup down my pa-ants?

Because I'm blind.

It must be bad to be blind and without job.

Oh I have a job friend.

What job?

Leader of the country. Here, have a smoke--my Vice President grew this pouch. Now don't inhale until the tip glows.

Why don't you smoke and inhale?

Oh, I've experimented with it a time or two, but I never inhaled and I
never tried it again. Wait a minute. I hear dogs yelping.


"Commander in Chief, you're in the same room with a monster!"

Don't be ridiculous--Chinese President Jiang Zemin had nothing to do
with that Tiananman Square thing.

I would be president too.

Why sure friend, my term is almost over. But you need a good slogan to
get elected. Mine was, "It's the economy, stupid." I almost went with,
"It's the stupid economy," but my campaign manager wouldn't listen. So
what's your slogan going to be?

( Dr. Frankenstein enters and administers the pills. )

I think it will be, "Cash is Crash without the 'r'."

Yes! I Have Succeeded Afterall!

From the Tailing Box...

Dear At a Bottom Now for Gold:

I heard the Russell 2000 is cheap relative to the Dow and S&P--is now
the time to get into small caps? --Fad Conscious

Dear Fad Conscious:

Only if you think your brain has shrunk far enough to fit into them.

Dear Pinky's Tailing Box:

I sold all my Zappa today because I was hungry and wanted an extra order
of fries at the Twins game today. --Out in MiniZappaless

Dear Out in Minizappaless:

Hopefully you are stomaching the the extra greasy fries better than I am
stomaching the current share price. --Whirlwind

Have any questions about PMs? Email the Whirlwind at

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:36 - ID#57232)
Y2k and Clinton Impeachment -- good for gold.
Fox-Man: I agree that a serious attempt at impeaching WJC would be bullish for gold, as the the US dollar would look far less attractive to foreign investors. Y2k may be bullish for gold as well. I was referring to the next 6 months or so regarding my neutral stance on gold.

Closer to year 2000, there are a number of events that could coalesce to push gold up. Wish gold investing was simpler -- but we are no longer in clearly inflationary times. Gold investing in the 70's was much simpler, because we had only inflation.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:38 - ID#411259)
..... RS .....

I am on to other, better things as well
I do think he wrote it though
There is a certain familiar petulance to the tone
That smacks of the F monad


(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:40 - ID#288186)
Gusto Oro; LOL on your post! Young Frankenstein...Great movie! Got it on
tape...Watched it alot..Great lines to quote from!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:40 - ID#335190)
jlh_A @ Thanks = Only one lurker eh!
Date: Mon Jul 13 1998 13:24
jlh__A ( ) ID#249285:

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:43 - ID#174239)
Robnoel_A: Hard Assets
Even though 10% of your assets may be solid and locked away today, market fluctuations will change the %. Lets say somone has 10% of thier assets in gold, and 90% stock as of June 1997. In the past year this person may have accumulated 1% more savings as cash, seen gold value drop 10% and watched his stocks gain 25%. He would now have about 7% of his assets in gold, 8% in cash, and 85% in stocks. He should buy gold with 30% and stocks with 70% of the cash to bring him back to the 10/90 split that he started with a year ago.

In theory somone could could buy and sell gold and stocks daily to keep thier favorite ratio. In reality, brokerage costs and coin dealer premiums would whittle thier savings to nothing. I personally check the balance once every few months and either buy PMs stocks as needed with new cash ( Only PMs since this time last year ) .

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:43 - ID#28594)
Wall Street--the willing suspension of disbelief...
Wall St bubbling, not unlike Asia 4 years ago

But, sooner or later, the tide will turn for both
By Vikram Khanna

ASIA'S crisis has helped bring into sharp relief just how whacko the world of high finance can get.

At the close of trading on Wall Street last Thursday, the Internet
company Yahoo! closed at US$184, implying a market capitalisation
of around US$8.5 billion ( S$14.7 billion ) . Listed in 1996, Yahoo!,
which has only barely started making money, has risen from a low of
US$11. Equally wondrous is the story of, the online
bookseller, which rose from less than US$10 in August last year to a
dizzy US$140 a few weeks ago, before falling back to around
US$105. Still making losses, has a market cap of more
than US$5 billion. Together, Yahoo! and -- neither of
which even existed six years ago -- are worth more than the entire
Indonesian stock market. The value of each of them is more than that
of DBS Bank.

Comparing the valuations on Wall Street and Asian markets throws
up perhaps the craziest statistics since the late 1980s, when the land
around Tokyo's Imperial Palace was reckoned to be more valuable
than all the real estate in California. Today, Pfizer, the pharmaceutical
company that makes the sexual performance-enhancing drug, Viagra,
has a market cap that comfortably exceeds the combined value of all
the stocks in South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia.
And Microsoft is worth more than all of the listed companies in

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:44 - ID#288186)
JTF; True...I keep forgetting that there are many more ingredients mixed
together nowadays and it's hard to say what economic events will
unfold because of this...Fox-Man

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:44 - ID#373284)
Lock & Lode, Namaste' glad to be of help...
here are two more to take a peek at my friend. ITRO & HABE you can find them on the last couple of press releases they have each put out...both have web sites...J. Taylor has been following them for several months. I find each of them to be very exciting.

If HABE inks a deal with the medical arena their stock will literally explode to the upside. ITRO is making all the right moves and I juuuuusssssssst love their potential in silver recycling...uh huh...

You can also find out more about J. Taylor at
I have spoken with Mr. Taylor and find him to be a man of integrity and honesty of the highest order...and a real nice fella to boot...

Gulp of Reserva to Ya!...

All that glitters is not gold...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:44 - ID#298380)
Fox-Man re your 13:04
You sir are the eternal optimist. Bless you.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:52 - ID#335190)
Yeltsin said to Military & Police " Russia has the ability to crush "extremist" attempts."
FOCUS-Global lenders pledge new help to Russia

MOSCOW, July 13 ( Reuters ) - Russia's economy was thrown a $22.6-billion lifeline on Monday by international lenders who gave a resounding vote of confidence to the government's plans for dealing with an acute financial crisis.

"The measures proposed by the government and the central bank have been backed by the international financial community," said Chubais, a former finance minister and architect of Russia's controversial privatisation programme.

Russia's opposition-dominated lower house of parliament, the State Duma, is due to debate the government's austerity measures on Wednesday but is not expected to approve them all.

Millions of workers go for months without wages.

Miners and other disaffected groups have been picketing the government headquarters at the White House in central Moscow demanding cash and the resignation of Yeltsin and Kiriyenko.

Last Friday, signalling the depth of his concern, Yeltsin told military and police officers that Russia had the ability to crush any "extremist" attempt to seize power.

Economists predicted tough times ahead for Russia.

Speculation had been growing on markets that Russia lacked the means to protect the rouble for long.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 13:57 - ID#410198) someone who loves the ponies,if I bet on every race in the card I would be handed my head,
then again you are talking to someone who is still holding $410.00 gold,a loss only happens when you sell,I have not nor will I

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:00 - ID#288140)
Was it you that posted a link to a page that has advice on hiding things? Well, I must have hidden it too well, if you still have it, would you please post the URL again? Thank you very much.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:00 - ID#373284)
all together now...
Oh my darlin...Oh my darling...Ohhhhhh my darling paradigm...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:02 - ID#288140)
I thought I plugged that last hole up pretty good. Drilled another one didja? Gulp! Namaste' ;- )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:02 - ID#242325)
Macs and PCs
Sharefin: I had to use those crappy window machines at work before I retired very early 2 years ago. Now I have two Macs -- a desktop and a laptop. Vastly prefer them to Windows based PCs.

If Apple had been as well managed as Microsoft, Macs would today dominate the market. Microsoft and Intel won because their business and marketing strategies left Apple in the dust. But their products remain inferior to the Mac in my judgement.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:03 - ID#410198)
Now this should be good Pres.Clinton and Al are to address Y2K to-morrow at 10.30 am in DC at NAS...
hold down the laugh track

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:05 - ID#342397)
Selby your 13:17 yesterday
Thanks for the site. I intend to install the spel checker this evening.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:05 - ID#373284)
sam, Namaste'
The Gnomes of Cuervo Central never sleep...Gulp of Reserva back at ya!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:13 - ID#242325)
SDR: Your 13:43 post was right on the money. The US market market is indeed a huge bubble.

Gold amd gold stock action remains poor. Bullion up just 70 cents and XAU flat on low volume despite sharp rally in the yen off the lows. Looks like we will be going still lower before this golden grizzly is put to rest.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:17 - ID#242300)
What goes up must come down
The Dow, now hinges on the pacific rim. Financal and verbal intervention are all that has sustained the market for past two weeks. With the communist victory in Japan yesterday, American confidence is wanying in the wake the worst Asian recession since WWII. Domestic quarterly reports show Asian crisis now effecting American businsess. Marketeers just can't find a reason to go Dow long. Sentiment is changing hourly.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:18 - ID#242300)
What goes up must come down
The Dow, now hinges on the pacific rim. Financal and verbal intervention are all that has sustained the market for past two weeks. With the communist victory in Japan yesterday, American confidence is wanying in the wake the worst Asian recession since WWII. Domestic quarterly reports show Asian crisis now effecting American businsess. Marketeers just can't find a reason to go Dow long. Sentiment is changing hourly.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:27 - ID#350179)
Keizo Obuchi, Seiroku Kajiyama
Profiles of two possible successors to Japanese prime minister

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:27 - ID#335190)
White House says Rubin, Clinton may have talked

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - White House spokesman Mike McCurry said he would not be surprised if Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin had discussed his future plans with President Clinton and indicated an aim to stay in the job for "some time."

"I wouldn't be surprised if they have discussed at it, and I would doubt very much it would depart very much from the secretary's observation that he plans to be here for some time," White House spokesman MikeMcCurry said.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:33 - ID#335190)
Russian Travel Departures @ IMF & Banker's travels calculated as Tourist's EH! (5.9M trips up 94%

LONDON, July 13 ( Reuters ) - The number of people going on vacation to Russia will double by 2002, making it the most popular holiday destination after France and Spain, new travel forecasts predicted on Monday.

"The Russian Federation has been the fastest growing of the major tourism markets, despite its lack of high-quality facilities, high crime rates and bureaucratic visa requirements," consumer markets analyst Euromonitor said.

Tourism arrivals to Russia could reach 45.9 million in 2002, up 109.9 percent on 1997 and compared to just 5.9 million in 1993, it said in its "European Tourism" report.

Russians are also joining the most-travelled nations, with departures from the country up 94 percent in the five years to 1997.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:36 - ID#373284)
Watch the will tumble, and tumble hard...
and when it does it will take the DOW with and see...uh huh...

Not too long now...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:40 - ID#335190)
Canadian dollar recovering after bad night

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Canadian dollar recovered some strength late this morning after sitting through the night with a sick friend -- the ailing Japanese yen.

The loonie sank as low as 67.49 cents US early Monday morning,

But through no fault of its own, the general outlook remains poor for the Canadian dollar, which has been repeatedly breaking its own record lows in recent weeks.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:40 - ID#350179)
Last post
Latest Main News headline
23:27 Hashimoto, Kiriyenko agree to upgrade bilateral ties --TOKYO, July 13
22:37 Seoul to take strong measures over N. Korean commando --SEOUL, July 13
22:09 Kiriyenko meets Hashimoto to promote bilateral ties --TOKYO, July 13
21:57 S. Korean President Kim to visit China in mid-Nov. --BEIJING, July 13
21:57 Arafat meets Jiang in Beijing --BEIJING, July 13
21:54 Vietnam premier decides on stock market establishment --HANOI, July 13
21:40 Rape cases against Chinese-Indonesian women reach 168 --JAKARTA, July 13
21:17 Japan's economic fundamentals are sound: BIS --TOKYO, July 13
19:46 U.S., Japan business execs call for swift reform --TOKYO, July 13
17:59 Dollar at 142 yen, stocks end higher after election --TOKYO, July 13
17:08 Election of Hashimoto's successor expected July 30 --TOKYO, July 13
16:54 S. Korea urges labor unions to retract planned strikes --SEOUL, July 13
16:53 Core private machinery orders fall 4.0% in May --TOKYO, July 13
16:43 Hashimoto announces resignation after election defeat --TOKYO, July 13
15:29 Hashimoto confirms cancellation of trip to France, U.S. --TOKYO, July 13
15:02 U.S. business leaders call LDP's defeat sign for reform --TOKYO, July 13
14:56 Japan's LDP gets verdict for policy flops: Seoul media --SEOUL, July 13
14:54 Kiriyenko arrives in Japan, to meet Hashimoto, Obuchi --TOKYO, July 13
14:24 Hashimoto offers to resign after election setback --TOKYO, July 13
12:46 Chinese media flashes LDP setback, Hashimoto's fate --BEIJING, July 13
12:17 S. Korea warns N. Korea against commando infiltration --SEOUL, July 13
12:01 Defense Agency chief cancels U.S. visit --TOKYO, July 13
11:58 Dailies urge Hashimoto to resign --TOKYO, July 13
11:44 BIS monthly meeting starts in Tokyo --TOKYO, July 13
11:28 Hashimoto to quit after LDP's electoral drubbing --TOKYO, July 13

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:42 - ID#286230)
Goode. Be prepaed to chose between a US Eglish and an Eglish Eglish dictionary.

the moon
(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:42 - ID#374242)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:44 - ID#373403)
Big Brother
I was reading an article yesterday regarding encryption technology and the government fight against strong encryption. Computer software makers are proposing new standards which would make file transfers more secure yet allow government to view them with a warrant.

It is disturbing that government would be so forward as to dictate technology usage in the public domain. It is as if government feels they have the right to pry into our privacy. Will certain types of concrete be outlawed which stop listening devices? Will whispering be regulated if it is too low to allow eavesdropping devices to pick it up?

Maybe it will become illegal to destroy potentially incriminating evidence prior to a warrant being issued. Old papers cannot be shredded or burned, they must be thrown out. Of course the courts have already found that you have no rights to your garbage once put out. Anyone is free to pick it up and sift through it.

It makes me mad because until a crime is committed, the government has no rights to regulate private messages. It is as if they have issued a court order for all electronic transmissions in advance by keeping encryption weak enough for them to view your messages.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:44 - ID#37468)
hi Bart!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:47 - ID#298380)
Clinton will not be impeached. He may even executive order himself an
emergency extension because of Y2K.

There may be a slight bump in the markets if Rubin decides
to retire early next year.

Janet Reno will be next to jump ship. I am surprised she has not
done so already. She does not belong with that administration.

There will be no substantial rise in the POG or POS, unless
Y2K causes all hell to break loose. Then silver will lead the way.

The Dow and SP500 will continue to ease thier way upward,maybe not
Dow 10,000, but look for 9500 by years end.

The markets are being manipulated and there is nothing we can do
about it except wait or sell and take our losses.

I am invested in gold stocks and it's my own damn fault.

Thanks for listening!!!!!

Gold Dancer
(Mon Jul 13 1998 14:48 - ID#377196)
John Disney
Maybe your jesting is going to come true? Is Rubin going to RSA to
tell Tito the Banker that the check for his Country in in the mail?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:13 - ID#350179)
IMF seeks to tap emergency fund to meet Russia's credit demands
But opponents in Congress maintained the IMF was crying wolf and had plenty of money left, including $23 billion in the emergency fund and $26 billion worth of gold that could be used as collateral to borrow in global financial markets. In the past Germany, Japan and Italy have resisted any use of IMF gold reserves.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:35 - ID#174239)
Rnobel_A(Saving and Gambling)
My understanding is that the idea of having a fraction of assets in Precious Metals another fraction in cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. is to maximize the value of your assets while keeping your risk to some acceptable level.

A lot of financial planners recomend buying stocks with dollar cost averaging. An example would be for somone to to buy $100 of a stock every month. If it's $50 one month, he would buy 2 shares. Next month it may jump to $100 and he would only buy 1 share. The next month it may plummet to $10, so he would buy 10 shares. If this is done over 30 years, and the average price increased 10% per year over that time, this person bought the most shares when it was cheaper and fewer shares when it was most expensive.

An elaboration of this strategy could be applied to all assets. When stocks are high and Gold is cheap, sell stocks to buy gold. When gold is expensive and stocks are cheap, sell gold and buy stocks. Just like dollar cost averaging, the guesswork is taken out by simply maintaing a desired stock/gold ratio.

Diversifing by having all different types of assets also fine tunes the risk/reward balance.

I don't understand how this applies to horse racing. Isn't it possible for gold, bonds, and real estate to all be up while stocks are down? This would be like 3 horses winning while one is loosing. Also, the race never ends ( even when an investor dies his assets go on without him ) .

Buy low, sell high.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:35 - ID#384350)
Harry Schultz on Y2K
In the latest Harry Schultz Letter ( tel: +32 16 533 684 ) , InRe Y2K, Harry sees banks as your biggest worry and that THEY'RE more worried than any group. He hears of bankers buying country cottages, and telling friends to get money out of banks because:

1. Many bank computers aren't going to be compliant, and those that are cannot risk connecting with other banks, especially globally. Thus the system may be totally down for months.

2. Enough people are advising to get "some" cash ( now ) in case of problems. Branch banks don't carry much cash on hand. If you wanted to make a sizeable withdrawal, you would have to wait several days, while they ordered it. Cash does not EXIST in enough quantity to fill the probable demand.

3. This will lead to bank runs, which may become a panic, starting in either Japan or the US. It will cause many to want not just "some" cash, but ALL their money out. The result may be bank closures, bank holidays, bankruptcies. This COULD begin this year, even this summer.

4. The computer mess may cause banks to lose or distort your records, so bank safe box, lawyer-CPA-dentist-doctor safe. for a clever list of U must keep copies of everything. We may move from this cashless society to a cash only society + barter. Harry Predicts that banks will put a LIMIT on the amount of cash you can have. You had better act now, not in 19999. Where to hide cash? At home, office, car, garden, non-places to hide at home, see "Hiding Tangible Wealth" from

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:37 - ID#350179)
IMF reserves & Russia

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:39 - ID#384350)
2nd post HSL on BankStink
The Harry Schultz Letter ( tel: +32 16 533 684 ) dated July 6, sees the US long bond rising dramatically, saying yields could fall below 4%, provided that US 30-yr bond futures are above 122.10.

He thinks that this technical analysis of the US LT Bond indicates that perhaps either a huge business slowdown ( or worse ) , or big Y2K related turmoil.

As to the US intervention of the Japanese Yen, he says the REAL reason Rubin intervened unconstitutionally in the currency market was to stop a bear stock market sell signal that was given 2 days before. Harry says, "The DJIA fell below the neckline of a Head & Shoulders Top chart pattern, giving a classic sell cue on June 15, 1998. Wall Street broker chartists obviously flashed Washington ( read Rubin, ex-Wall Street ) to do something. Usually the govt buys S&P futures to hold the market together when a chart pint is threatened. It's normally done through the Interest Rate Stabilisation Fund, but it's running low on cash. They do the same trick with gold, shorting futures."

He cites "Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders" ( fax 612-423-4949 ) refering to its ongoing monitoring of Federal Reserve intervention in the S&P, which is the tail wagging the DJIA dog. They tried to confirm recent intervention but were "stonewalled" ( not a surprise ) . Such interference in markets is unconstitututional, but as govt never admits it, the media never asks, & Joe Public likes the result, so who cares about laws? Immorality is everywhere.

As it was too late to buy S&P futures on June 15 and chart damage was done, govt broke their widely quoted promise of a week earlier Not to support the Yen ( saying it was no solution when fundamentals weren't changed in Japan ) .

Saving/protecting/helping banks is a primary reason for Washington's existence, and always has been.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:43 - ID#28994)
Canadian government officials keep saying the Canadian dollar is falling thru no fault of there own.
I can only assume the U.S.A. dollar has risen thru no fault of there own.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:48 - ID#24563)
CNN/Talk Back Live
Topic Y2K...on right now.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:50 - ID#246224)
Preview of tomorrow's Y2K speech by Clinton
My fellow Americans, I stand before you here today to express my greatest confidence that the Year 2000 bug will be solved by our very capable Corporations. There will be no major disruptions if we all work together to solve this problem. There may be some 'bumps' in the road, but we will stand with each other as we always have during times that have called upon the goodness of our greatest national resource, the people of this great country.

On this 14th day of July, 1998 I hereby declare martial law in order to keep fear mongering, 'end of the world' doomsayers from causing our nation any undue confusion. There is no other reason for doing this but to prevent undue anxioty from destroying our productive and prosperous land. Law abiding citizens have nothing to worry about. Vice President Gore will now explain the new National Recovery Agenda that will guide our nation through to its greatest hour. Vice President Gore.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 15:55 - ID#335190)
Business: The Economy

Central bankers urge calm

Central bankers gathered at the Bank of Japan

Central bankers from around the world, meeting in Tokyo for the first time, tried to reassure global financial markets that Japan's economic restructuring was still on course despite the resignation of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.

Business: The Economy

Russia outlines emergency reforms

Premier Sergei Kiriyenko and Russian President Boris Yeltsin

The Russian government has unveiled plans to slash public spending and shake up the country's troubled tax system in an effort to stave off a financial crisis and prevent the devaluation of its currency, the rouble.

Sergei Kiriyenko, the Russian Prime Minister, outlined plans to cut government spending by 42 billion roubles ( $6.8bn ) whilst increasing tax revenues by 20 billion roubles ( $3.2bn )

World: Monitoring

Opposition sceptical about Kiriyenko package

Russian opposition leaders were quick to voice scepticism about Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko's anti-crisis package on Tuesday, saying it offered no long-term cure for the country's economic woes.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:02 - ID#373284)
Allen, Namaste'

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:08 - ID#251166)
@ Allen, ALL
I must've missed something. BC's giving a speech tomorrow re. Y2K? Please confirm. Thanks!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:10 - ID#246224)
Central Bankers gather in Japan to find that ..
( surprise! ) all is calm and bright.

"Well, we thought everything was 'on course' but we just wanted to make sure by seeing for ourselves. Everything is just fine. Go back to sleep."


WOW! I am so very gratefull and releaved that things are 'on course' and that Japan is doing so very well in solving its problems. Aren't you just awestruck by this revelation?! As for me ..

G O O G O O L D D !!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:12 - ID#411112)
J...there are so many investment choices just like horses in a race,you place your bet you take your

chances....besides real Cowboys don't cry when we lose....we find another horse

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:13 - ID#246224)
Tolerant1 & Jonesy
Tol1, watch for stray bullets, eh? You never know when one might just hit an innocent, government disrupting 'bystander'.

Jonesy @ 10:30 AM tomorrow.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:14 - ID#246224)
Formatting messed up.Sorry.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:15 - ID#431263)
His dizzyness failed to mention to you that Lihir traded as low as $1.40A and as high as $2.78A between Christmas and Easter. Had you bought at the low and sold at the high you could have made a cool 98% on your money! All in a matter of a few months! Once again we are confronted by lies, damned lies and statistics! Go RAND!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:17 - ID#246224)
Hello ,TEST and moon!
Hope your programming is going well. We appreciate your efforts on the part of all Kitco persons. Thanks!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:22 - ID#373284)
It just keeps getting better and better...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:22 - ID#215235)
(ECB rumors of 20%+ Gold Backing
Check out the Special Bulletin posted at The London Bullion Market Association on 7/13/98 reports rumours of 20% or more gold backing for the euro. Ain't it interesting? I have felt for months that the euro would require a large gold backing to give it legs. I have also felt that the ECB was manipulating the price of gold to buy low and hold at a much higher US $ level. If this rumour becomes facey, gold should jump into the mid to high $300 level by the first quarter of 1999. GO GOLD! AND GO EURO!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:23 - ID#384350)
Y2K link
homepage from earlier post

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:26 - ID#251166)
@ Allen, re. BC's Y2K talk tomorrow @ 10:30 a.m.
So just how slickly Willie pull this one off? Just the fact he's addressing Y2K is conceding there's a problem and signalling alert, regardless of what he'll actually say [cf. credibility gap]. Your thoughts?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:47 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.23. The 50 day moving average is 30.44

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:49 - ID#350179)
Waiting for 404 "Undervalued asset"???
..."As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides a fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of the IMFs gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position."...

Do not open this link Tol1....

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:50 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .230. The 50 day moving average is .254. My database contains 23 occasions where the XAU closed in the 67.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price the ranking tonight is #19. There is no change in the #1 ranking from Friday.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:51 - ID#373284)
MM, Namaste' yes...I have seen the page covering the dog defiler...
I have an expanded version and use if for a dart board. Gulp to ya...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:55 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.86. The 50 day moving average is 54.64

(Mon Jul 13 1998 16:57 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $295.25; spot silver $5.41; XAU 75.12

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:03 - ID#350179)
Russia gets huge international bailout deal
..."President Boris Yeltsin has hinted that he might dissolve the Duma and implement reforms by decree if deputies fail to back the government's anti-crisis measures."...

( where'd the copyright buttons go? )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:13 - ID#288295)

I think that Bart said there were 700 or 750 registered posters at this site. This was some time ago, when he initiated the week delay between registration and posting. Hope this info helps.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:14 - ID#252150)
Bob Farrel the savviest TA practicioner was on CNBC this morn & sounded the
death knell for the bull mkt:

The mkt lacks breadth
And is staggering badly
Soon it will fall down

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:24 - ID#255151)
The moon

moon, a symbol of Silver, is predicting the price of the metal, ie, hi.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:26 - ID#242325)
Dutchman; The USA GOLD site has carried a number of pro-gold rumors this year. None of them were true. But there is always a first time.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:27 - ID#258142)
Russia gets huge international bailout deal
Step 1: Take a world map and a microscope. Using these two find South Korea. This country got US$ 67 B package from IMF.
Step 2: Having this picture in mind, remove microscope and find Russia. Compare financial help.
Any questions?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:28 - ID#113316)
Due to an earlier post on Kitco, I visited the PEI website and read Martin Armstrong's three part research report on silver. I found this report presented MA's personal viewpoints and speculation, contained virtually no factual information to support the arguments, and stated certain "facts" that are just dead wrong ( the most glaring one I like best was the statement that significant new silver production would result with silver at $2 per ounce ) . I urge everyone to go to the PEI website and read this report. It would once and for all eliminate MA as an analyst that should be treated with any credibility in this forum.

Unlike some of the other posts earlier today, I find the action in the PMs to be encouraging today. The action in the POG, POS, and POP, not to mention the dollar, US interest rates, Japanese stock market, and the like, was just the opposite as was expected and predicted over the weekend. As I have mentioned before, IMHO, we are at the confluence of events that will see the clear and decisive end to the bear market in POG and the continuation of the uptend in the POS ( and POP? ) .

Final thought of the day for those who are predicting a further decline in US long-term interest rates ( I saw a 4% prediction here today ) and as a result are encouraging the purchase of US long term bonds, I wish to remind all that investors who purchased long term bonds at similar rates in the late 60s DID NOT MAKE A POSITIVE RETURN FOR THE LIFETIME OF THOSE BONDS.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:35 - ID#242325)
Silverfox: Agree absolutely on lomng-term bonds. But POG does look like it won't go up on a sustained basis until we get a final brutal thrust down on huge volume. Gold did not do well today in view of Asian developments and rumors of 20% Euro backing.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:45 - ID#222128)
( 6pak re: Lan-Man @ 12:00 )


(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:46 - ID#72316)
@ Delphi
Very good point, and very well demonstrated...


(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:48 - ID#293184)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 17:53 - ID#258142)
There will be no 20% Gold backing of EURO, at least in 1998. Period.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:04 - ID#57232)
Martin Armstrong, Interest rates
Silverfox: Silver at $2.00/oz? MA is out to lunch on that one! He is smart enough to know that cannot be true, given that Silver production is inelastic. Now, if copper, lead, zinc etc production were skyrocketing due to a worldwide economic boom, he might be right. But that is not the case. Could not happen unless there is a worldwide depression comparable in magnitude to the great depression. Eventually even then gold and silve bullion would rise as production costs dropped in all countries.
On interest rates, you may be correct that LT US interest rates will not drop for any length of time. I don't know, but the current downward trend is unmistakable on technical analysis. Even if LT rates remain constant, you could argue that the FED has short term interest rates too high. If the US dollar continues to rise as it has been recently, the worldwide financial disruption could be catastrophic. Noticed Canada? Interesting fix the US FED is in -- keep US rates high, and risk world-wide catastrophe. Reduce rates, and some of the pressure comes off the Yen/dollar carry.
My guess is that even if the US FED does lower rates, the US dollar will continue to rise. The trend has a life of its own, and will falter when it is ready to falter. Incidentally in this scenario, gold merely keeping constant in dollar terms is bullish ( in non-dollar terms ) for gold bullion, worldwide . Interesting times we live in. Keep ( most of your ) powder dry, or invest in non-US gold producers where the profit margins for gold production are increasing.
I wonder, just how much does the Canadian dollar have to fall to increase Canadian gold producer profit margins?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:06 - ID#253153)
CRB recorded new low's today
Deflation is continuing and accelerating despite all the prediction about
reflation by the US government. Listen to what the markets are saying and nothing else.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:07 - ID#430221)
Gold has been putting most of us to sleep. But an old axiom says
"Never short a dull market!"

Tighter and tighter the spring does get wound
and soon it will knock many to the ground!

Thanks, GD

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:08 - ID#317193)
Gold to $285 or $320...who knows..
With absolutely no reference to any underlying factual data and based solely on my disdain for gold falling I have predicted that gold will rise to $320. Why?

The lows have been higher. Option expiry was last Friday. The August contract FND is the 31st .The shorts need to keep gold under $290...probably at $285. Gold is now tied to the Yen...God only knows why. The US needs the Yen under 140. They can not do both.

The Euro folks need to start a rise in the price of gold in US$'s. Something is going to give. The US$ price of gold is either going UP or it will be ASB.$320 or $ your bets or stand aside.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:14 - ID#273432)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:16 - ID#258142)
JTF, Silver
Moving averages would never turn, if the price will continue the last time frame action. IMHO, silver has finished it correction after WB story and now is staying in 5.2 - 5.4 range ( who knows, for how long? ) before going up, and up, and up. First target IMHO is close to 6, then bit down and up again

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:23 - ID#273432)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:25 - ID#288295)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:26 - ID#288140)
Silverbaron & Gianni Dioro
Thank you for the URLs!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:27 - ID#288295)

Sorry for the delay in posting the hidey-hole ISP has been doing some really bizarre things this afternoon, and my post to you wouldn't go through. Happy backyard gardening!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:28 - ID#258142)
Its getting late in Europe
Good night

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:30 - ID#57232)
Gold/silver markets very quiet!
All: As someone posted, that is one positive piece of news. It seems that the precious metals traders are waiting for something. Could be the bulls are slowly building positions. Or ? We can dream, can't we? But -- we still have to be 'steeled' for a run of gold if there is a financial meltdown somewhere. I'm tiring of this inflation/deflation limbo we are in -- sitting on the fence. But I'm not sure I want to see action, either, unless the process is fairly controlled.
AP: If the CRY0 truly bottoms at 200 in the next few months, that will be a very good sign for gold. One thing we do know since we went off the gold standard in the US -- commodity price indices tend not to go down anymore. Of course, is the FED really prepared if the cry0 drops below 200? I don't know, given that true deflationary events are rare -- multigenerational -- and hence poorly understood. We as humans are not good at fighting a disease that is 60 years in the making. The FED is still fighting that other threat -- inflation.
D.A: Where are you? Comments?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:33 - ID#57232)
Heading home -- busy day.
Error: That was JP, not AP I was addressing in my last post. Sorry for the confusion.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:33 - ID#373284)
Good grief the media is pathetic, CBS, NBC, ABC...simply pathetic. I wonder if
people across the USA actually think that what these people report is what is really happening. ( CNN, need I even bother mentioning them. )

The Internet is going to destroy the media...its happening right now...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:41 - ID#57232)
Silver trend
Delphi: Thanks. That was a pretty good rumor about WB selling his silver. I still like that story from one of our fellow Kitcoites that WB simply did not accept delivery on that 40million oz silver purchase, rumored to be due to the desperate plea of some frightened silver shorts. If that is the case, WB probably came out with a tidy off-the-market profit on his 40 million oz purchase, and looking like a good guy for not wiping out the silver stocks. Of course we will not know until he writes his memoirs.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:45 - ID#284255)
Reference url for y2k - bookmarkable

Some of my favorite links..
Bit messy but useful.

Old Gold.
I had 2 Mac's but now have 2 PC's.
Now I must reboot 4 times a day - sigh.
Talk about selling the world a lemon or two...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:48 - ID#384350)
Silverfox, LT Treasuries
I agree that LT bonds will very more than likely be a poor investment over the next 30 years. However, that doesn't mean that when the stock market starts tanking again, the masses won't first turn to bonds. Sometime later then to precious metals.

Harry just saw the futures break out of an ascending triangle pattern that had been forming for 4+ years, and alerted his readers to it. There is still the possibility that the move could reverse. Sep futures closed fairly close to where he said they needed to stay ABOVE ( 122.10 ) .

Harry isn't trying to BS people into thinking gold is a relic of the past and that everyone should invest in Treasuries instead. Au contraire mon frre, Harry has been telling people for years to have a core holding in PM's, and he sees the possible rise in Bonds as the result of a major business slowdown and/or a Y2K disaster, and he actually sees something in this nature as boosting gold.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 18:50 - ID#253153)
JTF--If the CRB breaks 200, I believe it will decline to 150 in a short period of time
Why do I say that ? Deflation ( like inflation ) has a habbit of accelerating as time passes. If you recall, in the mid seventies the CPI was at 6% annual rate and moved up to 14% in 1982. I do agree with you that deflation is a rare event to be witnessed only once in a life time. Unfortunately we have had almost 58 years of inflation and the time has come for the cycle to repeat itself. Every deflation is different than the last one, however because the fed closed the gold window in 1971, it basically declared bankruptcy, not being able to honored its gold convertibility commitment For this reason I belive this deflation will the much more worse than the previous deflation in the 30's and the CRB probably over time will decline to approximately 50 .

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:00 - ID#431366)
During Klinton's Y2K address tomorrow
All Kitcoites will get 404 errors
As Reno and crowd confiscate Bart's computers and other
paraphernalia associated with this nest of fearmongers & goldbugs.
Klinton could make an announcement along the following lines.

"A coordinated and simultaneous raid is being made on the hundreds of registered accomplices to these un-American activities which undermine the lawful authority of the President and are against the best interest of law-abiding Americans.
Any and all hoards of Gold, guns, ammo, food, and other supplies vital to the public welfare shall be also confiscated and turned over to the appropriate authorities so the average American can benefit from these unlawful hoards rather than just an elite few."

Just ask Mozel!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:01 - ID#384350)
my 15:35 corrected, and additional Y2K comment
Point 4 should have read:

4. The computer mess may cause banks to lose or distort your records, so you must keep copies of everything. We may move from this cashless society to a cash only society + barter. Harry Predicts that banks will put a LIMIT on the amount of cash you can have. You had better act now, not in 1999. Where to hide cash? At home, office, car, garden, non-bank safe box, lawyer-CPA-dentist-doctor safe. for a clever list of places to hide at home, see "Hiding Tangible Wealth" from

Harry Schultz also mentions things to invest in to reduce your money in banks, like a new car, boat, rural cottage, travelers cheques, cases of wine, whisky, cigarettes ( for barter ) .

Cage Rattler
(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:04 - ID#33182)
Y2K program on CNN Moneyline now

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:05 - ID#267344)
Someone.. help disect these words...
``The competition between the dollar and euro will be growing,'' he said.
Europe, under the deficit-cutting restrictions of the Maastricht Treaty on monetary union, has almost the same policy mix as the United
States, he said. But he added that the U.S. commitment was sometimes fragile due to conflicts between Congress and the White House.
``Until now, there was no external sanctions to policies of the United States, even when they forget to do what they have to do. But the competition will be good for them,'' Verplaetse said.
After the launch of the euro, the net debtor position of the United States will be taken into consideration by financial markets more than it is now, said a Belgian official who accompanied Verplaetse to Tokyo.
Verplaetse said he expected more competition between the euro and the dollar than between the euro and the yen.
``Both Europe and Japan are in favour of stable exchange rates, while the United States thinks the floating system works best,'' he added. - posted by Donald much earlier today

Q: How are stable exchange rates acheived without gold playing a substancial role?
Q: Is Verplaetse suggesting sound economic practice?
Q: Are these words as strong and threatening to the US as I perceive them to be?

- c

Spud Master
(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:07 - ID#28586)
Could Clinton's "speech" tommorrow have anything to do with
Wall Street's start of Year2000 software testing today?


(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:10 - ID#39121)
Off the topic...but does anyone know why Fidelity Select Energy Service
has gone into the doldrums nearly reminiscent of the steady downward
spiral of gold stocks over the past many months?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:10 - ID#411112)
Heres the URL where they publish the Y2K results,lot O stuff

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:11 - ID#253153)
JTF---One more comment
As a rule, I found out over the years that you are better off listening to what the markets are saying rather than people. The markets anticipate events 6-12 months in advance. The key is knowing how to read the markets. I would say that 99% of the investing community does not know how to read the markets.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:12 - ID#273432)
An amazing collection of working and published papers

There is a lot of good stuff here....for
example search working papers for the word

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:14 - ID#411112)
NEWA......more sellers than buyers....:-)


(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:19 - ID#284255)
Non Y2k tasteless joke.
A biology major was taking a cell biology course. The task of the day was
examining epitheleal cheek cells under a microscope. They had to scrape
the inside of their mouths with a toothpick and make a slide from it and
record the different types of cells that were found.
One girl in the class was having some trouble identifying some cells. She
called the professor over to ask him.
After a moment or two of peering in her scope, he looked up and said in a
loud voice, "Those are sperm cells."

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:20 - ID#242325)
oil service stocks
NEWA: In case you haven't noticd oil prices are way down this year. And oil service stocks are very vulnerable after the tremendous run of the past few years. Some of these stocks went up 500% or more. Even now they are far from cheap and could drop much lower if the Dow corrects 20% or so and/or oil prices remain depressed.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:22 - ID#23746)

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:23 - ID#317375)
4mths. of being an informational reader, as opposed to "lurker", and regarding someone's comment, a twenty something that isn't so out of it.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:24 - ID#242325)
JP: The CRB is generally considered to be a COINCIDENT INDICATOR of economic activity. It is NOT s leading indicator as you imply.

Gold is considered by some to be a leading indicator of inflation. But not the CRB.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:31 - ID#290281)
Sharefin @ 18.45
Thank you for sharing.

Charles Keeling
(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:32 - ID#344225)
Was that girl named Monica Lewinsky? How long do those cells
live? I guess it is too late to get a DNA.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:32 - ID#273432)


I wish I had the sense ( in the 1960s when I was in my 20's ) to listen to the gold and silver bugs....this is a GREAT place for information, so long as the personalities don't get in the way, as I'm sure you know if you've been here 4 months. Soak it up - it is worth your time.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:33 - ID#273432)

I was wondering when another 'baron' would show up on Kitco...glad to have some 'kin' around... ( ;^ ) )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:34 - ID#253153)
Old Gold---I consider the CRB as a leading indicator of future commodities based inflation
You may disagree with me, but to me the CRB is saying loud and clear ---DEFLATION___DEFLATION__DEFLATION. I can't think of a better indicator to indicate future course of inflation. Remember, this is only the beginning of runaway deflation. This new era will last for years to come.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:42 - ID#43460)
JP one question
JP, What is the market telling you?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:44 - ID#43460)
JP let me rephrase that
There was a lag in my last post. What do the varous components of the market tell you other than simple inflation/deflation scenarios?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:52 - ID#253153)
gagnrad-- You are asking a good question
The markets are telling me the following :
1.`We have entered a runaway deflationary phase back in Feb 1998.
2. Deflation is accelerating as time passes.
3. Interest rates in the long run are going much much lower . There could be short term spikes in interest rates , but these are only temporary spikes
before the long term trend resumes again.
4. Stocks are being distributed to uninformed individuals.
5. Long term bonds are in a major bull market.
6. Gold is basing prior to a major rise as capital seeks safety.
These are the long term trends.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 19:58 - ID#431200)
Financial Post Net users rail against Philip
Monday, July 13, 1998
Net users rail against Philip
TORONTO ( CP ) -- Defiant Internet investors continued to rail against Philip Services Corp. Monday, despite a controversial court order that has already unmasked some of the company's harshest critics.
Some participants in a popular Internet business bulletin board expressed concern over the weekend that Philip's court order could lead to search warrants, computer seizures and lawsuits.
But others, convinced the June 24 order is little more than a scare tactic, logged on to the Yahoo! Finance website as they have done for months to chat about the Hamilton waste and metals recycler.
"They are defiant," said Paul Palango, an author and journalist who has been investigating the company for several years and who is one of 26 "John Does" named in the court order.
"All ( Philip ) has done is stiffen people's resolve," Palango said. "They don't take this sort of thing very well."
Philip, dogged in recent months by financial losses and allegations of mismanagement, decided last month to seek the identities of several Internet users accused by the company of making harassing and defamatory comments about Philip and its senior executives.
The result, revealed last week, was a court order compelling Internet service providers in the U.S. and Canada to release the names, addresses and other details about clients who participate in the Philip discussion.
The 12 court orders include well-known service providers such as America Online, CompuServe and PsiNet Inc., among others.
David Potts, a Toronto libel lawyer and Internet legal expert, said the court order is probably the first of its kind for a Canadian company.
But Potts said many of the traditional libel law standards for print and broadcast media cannot be applied to the Internet, which combines the immediacy of television and radio with the permanence of print.
"We will have to develop new defences and new ways of looking at it based on the technology, and not try to squeeze the technology into these old legalistic cubicles," Potts said.
"They're not going to work in some situations ...and I think we're going to have to be creative about it."
In recent months, Philip has struggled with losses of $126 million US for 1997, an apparent copper trading scandal, chronic bookkeeping problems and a management purge in May that led to the departure of several senior executives, including co-founder Philip Fracassi.
The company's stock price, once a high flyer with a 52-week high of $27.90, has since come back to earth, closing Monday at $4.95 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, down a dime.
Philip is also facing 20 class-action lawsuits by angry American shareholders who lost millions in the stock's collapse.
Many users who returned to the Yahoo! site Monday convinced that Philip had no intention of acting on the information it obtained with the court order.
Legal action would open the company's confidential information to public scrutiny during the discovery process, said one user.
Still, Palango isn't taking any chances.
He has circulated messages informing users of their rights in case their homes are searched, as well as a letter they can send to Internet service providers to formally protest the release of private information.
Others -- lured to the board by the controversy -- admitted the prospect of having Philip know their identity was enough to discourage an open discussion.
"This mess is getting a little freaky," wrote one user. "I never heard of ( Philip ) before last month. I would stay away from them with a ten foot pole."
With a few keystrokes, the Internet enables anyone with a computer and a modem to issue broad, casual statements about people, companies and institutions that are distributed around the world and often archived, he added.
"What people have to realize is that people are like their own publishers or broadcasters now, and they have to treat themselves like this," said Potts.
"It's pretty seductive to have the power to not only say what you want, but have no one know who you are."
At the same time, however, the stringent libel and defamation laws that apply to members of the mainstream media should not necessarily apply to the average computer hobbyist, Potts said.
"I think the law will evolve, case by case, until we develop the type of principles that we need. My concern is that we do it recognizing how different the Internet is from other forms of media."

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:01 - ID#253153)
gagnrad--To be more specific
1. CRB is in deflation.
2. Long bond is in a bull market.
3. From a Dow theory point of view, there is a major NON confirmation between the Dow and the Transport indices. Stocks are being distributed.
4. Gold low's of Jan 1998 have NOT been violated. Gold shares are being accumulated by smart money at ridiculously low prices.
5. Advance decline line on the NYSE is NOT confirming the recent high's in the Dow.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:07 - ID#43460)
JP, thankyou
I still can't see the situation clearly. So I've moved 75% of my non-PM assets to medium term governemnt securities and a good money market fund earlier this year and am awaiting further developments. IMHO

Standard disclaimer applies. I don't give investment advice to others, merely discuss my own investments. IMHO

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:15 - ID#248180)
Palladium News - Russian
Been away for a few days. I'm not sure if anyone saw this. From the Feller Russia Mining Report. Sorry to all if it is a repeat.

The Central Bank of Russia may raise funds by selling its palladium reserves. It appears likely that President Yeltsin has signed a decree authorising the Central Bank to sell 200 tons of palladium. This would be a reasonable move for the CBR, as pressure for ruble depreciation has increased. The current market value of CBR palladium reserves is $1.9 bln ( 200 tons or 6.4 mln oz @ $293 per oz ) . However, we believe that the Central Bank can raise only about $1.2 bln - either through sales or by borrowing against the reserves. For a number of reasons, potential sales would not be quick - the CBR would probably not be able to dump the metal until the end of the year. First of all, palladium is not a pure commodity and is not widely- accepted as collateral; palladium prices are more volatile than those of gold, and therefore the CBR would receive a lower amount against reserves. Additionally, the amount involved is huge, and the market cannot absorb this much supply at once ( the total palladium market is 6.82 mln oz and the producer supply is 5.61 mln oz ) . Sales, therefore, would definitely have an impact on prices.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:23 - ID#290408)
I'm confused. People keep posting about pending deflation. How can you have deflation when the Government can print money without having to back it with anything? All the Government has to do to end
deflation is increase the money supply. Basically, the Government can end deflation at any time by simply annoucing "In an effort to stop deflation, we have decided to print and give away a 100$ bill to every
citizen". Not enough? Ok, 1000$, 10,000$, or whatever it takes.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:32 - ID#317377)
Silverbear re: Deflation
Not knowing all the particulars myself, I would suggest a book I've read. The Great Reckoning by James Dale Davidson. His follow up book, The Sovereign Individual is excellent as well.

The Great Reckoning discusses the issues surrounding why the US is headed towards deflation as opposed to the Latin American-styled inflation.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:34 - ID#288295)
Tickle your imagination

with more weird stuff from Art Bell. Scroll
down to the 7/08/98 interview with Sean David
Morton....Earthquakes, fire, hurricanes,
financial collapse....Uh huh!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:34 - ID#253153)
Silverbear--If the US government has done what you have suggested --
Interest rates will soar to levels not seen in US history and US government debt will collapse. This will prevent the US from raising anymore money by selling bonds on the open market. Do you think they will that ?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:36 - ID#412286)
YES but only in one currency which has the largest trade and budget deficits in the world where citizen demand is running on a huge credit card. Where that currency will soon be challenged, by necessity, by others ie the Euro and YEN asia talk is not idle. Where real estate is maudlin and jobs multiple per person ( making it look like there is more job creation ) and wages and benefits syagnant. The Asians will not do this to their people so few can profit.. now with their surpluses and social stability they call in their hand soon..Hello US of Indonesia...Social stability and justice rule greed loses..No wonder RUBIN might only be here for awhile....HE KNOWS...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:37 - ID#57232)
Your 19:05
clone: My take on your impression of Verplaetz ( sp? ) . First, I agree that you cannot force exchange rates to be constant without buying and selling some other currency such as gold ( or even US dollars!! ) . This only works as long as the weaker currencies do not run out of their chosen reserve currency. Secondly, I do not know if the EURO planners will be applying sound financial principles to the management of the EURO. What worries me is that Europe is just coming out of a recession at a very bad time, given what just happened in SEAsia, and what may happen in Russia and South America. Thirty percent unemployment in some european countries. The European countries cannot afford to have a tight monetary policy at the current time -- I think their reasoning is that the Euro will strengthen with time as their economies strengthen. That may be folly, and will take years they may not have. Y2k will not help. Thirdly, I do not think the EURO is a serious threat to the US dollar until economic recovery is evident -- that will take years.
Lastly, the talk about the EURO being backed by gold 10-20-30% or so is just talk, for now. They cannot afford to focus on a strong EURO right now with their weak economies -- that must come later. Perhaps the main thing that will happen now will be that new debt floated will be in EUROs, not US dollars. After the honeymoon there is the problem of differential inflation rates/interest rates in currencies officially pegged at fixed rates. Hence, no direct threat to the US dollar. And, possibly trouble ahead for the EURO after the honeymoon is over.
My take is that the US dollar will continue to rise for some time, despite the undesireable consequences of this -- and despite the floating of some new debt in EURO's and not dollars.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:45 - ID#39121)
Thanks for your response re: energy service sector. I've known of the
depressed price of oil and only regret having bought into the energy
service sector on what I thought might have been a correction and perhaps a near-term bottoming in the price of oil. Just as with gold
stocks, I'm paying a dear price. But what really happened to drive
FSESX from the low 30's to low 20's in recent weeks? I don't recall
that the price of oil dropped enough to justify this action.

Bottom line...I did not do my homework and did not see the smart money
leaving this sector at the top.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:48 - ID#411112)
Blew it yesterday calling today BLACK was I to know Greenspan would sign the check....


(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:49 - ID#57232)
Increasing the money supply
Silverbear: I agree with JP -- that increasing the money supply does not necessarily prevent deflation. During times of recession that is exactly what the FED does, and expanding the money supply works. But every 60 years or so the financial detritus slowly accumulates -- debt, credit, etc. and one day the old money expansion game fails to work. Or perhaps the FED waits too long. Almost did that right in the 90's. Just look at Japan -- they have been expanding their money supply like crazy -- but with no success. The Japanese people refuse to spend, and all that cheap money goes overseas instead of jumpstarting their economy.
I don't know if this is our time for big time deflation in the US. Could be. Or perhaps years from now when we are even more in debt and using more credit. Sudden deflationary scarios are like market crashes -- hard to predict when the system will collapse under its own weight. My intuitive guess is that we have not had enough craziness yet -- we must go to the fall, or to y2k.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:55 - ID#412286)
as with incipient weaker world wide economy the unbeliveable structural and social weaknesses in the US economy will become evident and make them want to run for the hills. IE Whats so great about the dollar????They will asK?? THE DOLLAR IS OWNED BY EVERYONE this will be its problem when the world slows down and the dollar system comes to an end. Major BEAR in Dollar jusy beginning. Expect skyrocketing US rates and bankruptcies to result in a snowball that will make Japan look healthy..and it just might in comparison. Rubin resigning in "awhile" HMMM. Dollar BEAR HAS BEGUN!!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 20:55 - ID#373284)
Did anyone, anywhere, see or hear any media coverage of the national ID
card today...other than WorldNet...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:04 - ID#210114)
OLD GOLD and USAgold rumours.
Dead right Old Gold. Have heard lots of rumours on USAGOLD syte. None are ever true.

Does anyone know where they got this one from??

Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:10 - ID#210114)
Goldbugs should stop Hoping for the End of the World

The Global Deflation Issue and Gold
Gold Watch - Veneroso Associates - June 11, 1998

It would seem that the global deflation issue is overdone.

( 1 ) Demand growth in the U.S. and Europe ( roughly
45% of global demand ) has been exceptionally strong.
( The one caveat here is the U.S. stock market. It is an
asset bubble that will eventually burst, and when it
does it will probably cause a consumer-led U.S.
recession. )

( 2 ) Japans economy is in recession. However, the
new stimulus package is large and frontloaded. It
should be turning the Japanese economy up soon.
Remember, all the twists and turns of the Japanese
economy in the 1990s are attributable to changes in
fiscal policy.

( 3 ) Unlike the rest of the emerging Asia, China, the
largest economy in the region, has lowered interest
rates. It is also embarking on a massive public sector
infrastructure program. The Chinese economy should
continue to grow at a decent pace.

Therefore, short of a severe U.S. stock market decline, a global
recession does not appear imminent.

Taking the above factors into consideration, it is our assessment
that, short of a severe U.S. stock market decline, the developed
world ( including Japan ) will experience decent economic growth
going forward and that we will see some stabilization and recovery
in Asia. Therefore, the odds are that the global deflation-inspired
short position in gold will stop growing. If Chinese, Indian, and
Middle East demand is not depressed by a deflationary spiral, the
abatement of gold supplies from distress liquidations in South
East Asia and EMU related official selling will lift the gold price,
forcing the prevailing large short-position to be covered.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:12 - ID#162241)
USA Gold - Can anyone confirm this comment?
"While the estimate made by European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg of 10%-15%was in line with projections circulating at the beginning of the year, more recent market rumours had been seeking levels of 20% or better. " ( Our emphasis - USAGOLD )

------London Bullion Market Association 7/13/98

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:13 - ID#255284)

Any news on whether kiwi really got 404'd?

Does he have the right of appeal?


(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:13 - ID#57232)
Money expansion and inflation vs deflation
All: Just realized one important point -- back in the 90's we had a recession, and the money supply started to drop precipitously ( M2 fell significantly ) . The problem was that the money supply such as M2 that drives the economy is the monetary base is multiplied by the monetary velocity, which depends on the strength of the economy -- a circular amplification process. This amplification allows the FED to prime the pump more effectively, but also amplifies the downturn risks of the M2 if the M2 begins to fall -- we nearly had a deflationary episode in the 90's that the FED just pulled us out of.
In more comlex terms there are multiple parameters that amplify the effect of money supply on the economy. That gives the FED leverage to jumpstart an economy when it falters. The only problem is that you get addicted to the high octane gas of this method, and one day you do not notice that that economic engine is in need of repairs and does not respond. Or -- perhaps you wait too long to supercharge the economy by expanding the money base ( to increase monetary velocity ) , and M2 contracts precipitously instead of expanding. There will be a point of no return when no amount of monetary expansion will help.
So -- these very inflationary policies of the FED that can pull us out of recession can keep us from noticing weakness in the economic engine. One day it is too late, and the inflationary process fails to occur. Deflation occurs catastrophically instead of inflation.
This is an oversimplification, but I think there is truth in the above analogy. It does explain why deflations are so sudden and unpredictable -- very much like stock market crashes.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:13 - ID#253418)
The stock market could continue further higher given the flow of funds into a select group of stocks, but the news back drop for me was too much to justify my continuing to hold any but precious metal equities.

Sold out of my stock funds on an up day and moved some reserves to intermediate bonds. May miss the eventual top - who knows maybe by hundreads of DOW points. The irrational exhuberance could go on much longer, but my view of Japan, Malaysia, Russia and the valuation levels on US equities just screamed at me - GET OUT. So today I did.

Advance decline line is not confirming, new high vs. new low indicators are going south and complacency is high. I'll be happy with a sideways to slightly lower stock market as that will probably least effect precious metal securities.

Gold - trying to hold. Silver stable, PT rising and PD may be under preasure from Russian sales.

News background is very disturbing. What is particularly distressing is the positive spin the networks try to keep on affairs. From what I read on the net the best informed opinions paint a very dim picture.

Will gold etc. provide a safety net? I suppose you just have to believe. i

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:17 - ID#253246)
@Spock***************************USA rumor mill


Kosasres is getting ready to sign up another mystery writer ( Steve Puetz )
Look for his new book "IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF MIDGETS"

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:22 - ID#253418)
Re: Veneroso
This gentleman is much more in the know than I, but I fear his assumptions about a reviving Asia, stable growing Europe and no recession in the USA are too positive given the fact the Japanese are all smoke and mirrors, European economies and the American are beginning to experience increased effects of the Asian melt.

I prefer his more optomistic end to a more nagative one for our current world malaise but too much faith is put in bankers, politicians and government intitutions by the vast majority of investors. There track record is horrible and with Russia so unstable there is the prospect of a big problem for all the world economies.

In cash, short bonds and lightly leveraged precious metal stocks. Maybe for my greater personal economic well being I'll be dead wrong . . but from the best that I can read we're in the darkness before the storm.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:25 - ID#342397)
@Grizz @ your 19:00, others,
I spend a lot of time in the oilfields, away from Kitco and WWW. What happened to Mozel? Was it the F* word??

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:25 - ID#401237)

$15 Billion for a $5 Trillion problem...lot's of luck!
Interest only payment to Chase Bank?


(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:31 - ID#335190)
USofA Steelworkers Union Lawsuit @ NAFTA unconstitutional (This should be interesting - MAI next?)
Steelworkers' union lawsuit says NAFTA unconstitutional

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Arguing the North American Free Trade Agreement is actually a treaty, steelworkers and an allied group asked a U.S. federal judge Monday to rule NAFTA unconstitutional because it wasn't approved by a two-thirds vote of the U.S. Senate.

The United Steelworkers of America and the Made in the U.S.A. Foundation filed suit in Birmingham, Ala., in the latest attempt to shelve NAFTA.

The U.S. administration had NAFTA approved as a trade agreement by majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives in 1993.

The union and other NAFTA foes argue various provisions of NAFTA -- including elimination of tariffs and creation of an arbitration panel -- make it a treaty as defined by the U.S. Constitution.

The Senate approved NAFTA by a vote of 61-38, enough for a trade agreement but short of the two-thirds margin needed for a treaty.

"What we need to do is wipe NAFTA off the books -- clean," George Becker, president of the 750,000-member steelworkers' union, told a news conference in Washington.
He said NAFTA "has been an unmitigated disaster" that companies are using as a weapon "to beat unions down."

The lawsuit alleges NAFTA has led to the loss of 400,000 U.S. jobs.

Harvard Law School professor Laurence Tribe, who argued in a 1995 law review article that certain trade agreements are actually treaties, said in a telephone interview NAFTA "almost certainly" should be considered a treaty.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:31 - ID#286284)
@JTF re WB "Sale"

I would like to make it clear that I was not trying to start nor continue a rumour regarding Buffet selling silver -- Ted Arnold has done well enough in this regard, thank-you very much. What I was saying was this: _If_ Buffet sold, he sold only that which had not been delivered; i.e. he sold only paper silver.

While I have no "inside" knowledge whatsover as to the truth of this conjecture, I am somewhat sympathetic towards its validity for several reasons.

1. Lease rates came down during the period between the announcement and the purported delivery. If 90 million ozs "withdrawn from the system" took the lease rates from 5% to 75%, surely the final 40 million ozs would have put the lease rates right through the roof. This didn't happen and therefore one might surmise that the delivery never took place. ( A counterpoint to this argument: Buffet may have flooded the system - and thereby reduced the rates - by lending the already-delivered silver back out. )

2. Buffet's not stupid. He buys low and sells high. Would he pass by an opportunity to make 30% in six months? I could see it.

3. Buffet would not want to upset the system. Imagine the look on the shorts' faces when they realized that the guy at the other end of their position was actually going to take delivery! This would be breaking unspoken rules, this would be "screwing" the system. There would have been tremendous pressure to avoid such a messy situation - Buffet would not want to go down in history as the guy who sunk the Shorts-R-Us hedge fund. No doubt he was offered a way out -- did he take it?

If he did, he would have sold that which he did not -- and might not have been able to -- possess. That's bullish. If he didn't, he would be making a clear statement that, in his view, seven buck silver is cheap, too cheap. And that's bullish too.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:37 - ID#219363)
There have been some terms that I didn't intuitively understand in this forum, so I did a little research to figure out what they meant. Anyway, I thought I'd post my own common sense understanding of them in the hopes that it'll save another layman the time of figuring it out.

First a tiny bit of currency talk.

Say you've got a bunch of people in a room, a singer, a dish washer, piano player, grocer, etc. They can barter their services - the singer will sing for the grocer in return for some fruit, etc. Works great if you only have a few people but gets complicated when the singer wants to sing, needs food, but the grocer doesn't want to hear any songs, then you get into a situation where the singer has to barter with someone else to get something that the grocer wants, etc, blah blah blah.

Step forward is to have a "token", or "fiat currency" as the people here call it that everyone agrees to accept in exchange for goods and services. So the singer can sing for someone, get one of these tokens and exchange that with the grocer for a piece of fruit. The grocer will accept the token because it's understood that he can exchange it with someone else for something he wants in the future.

Inflation seems to have something to do with screwing up the system by creating too many tokens ( one type of inflation ) . So, if there are too many tokens out there, then prices go higher because there is more money chasing after the same amount of goods and services. So your burger king whopper seems to have "gone up in price" over the last 10 years because there are more tokens there to purchase whoppers with, but only a limited number of whoppers to purchase.

Another kind of thing called deflation seems to happen when there aren't enough tokens around. One thing that seems to cause it is when people get worried and start hoarding their tokens ( not spending ) , this leaves everyone else with fewer tokens with which to transact business, thereby making the tokens "worth more". I'm not positive about that one, but it's the way I understood some of the things I read.

Yet another kind of deflation seems to consider the group of people in relation to another group of people. If the group of people start spending their tokens at another market ( thereby reducing the number of tokens available for trade inside the group's local market ) , then deflation occurs again, because again, there are fewer tokens around to use for business transactions.

Just looking at that, I figure a bank could really screw stuff up by manufacturing more tokens ( inflating ) to offset the deflation. It looks like when circumstances changed and all the tokens starting coming back to the local market, there would be too many of them and you'd have some kind of super-inflation. I dunno, might be wrong, makes good sense to me though.

There also seems to be big troubles when everybody decides not to play anymore, that is, the group of people decide that the tokens are stupid, so they start using another groups tokens instead. I'm not sure what they call this, but it does seem to happen when the bank screws up and "breaks" the token system. Demand drops for the tokens and it looks like nobody wants them and they start being relatively worthless. I'm not really sure about how all that works, seems to be public opinion that drives it, though I'm sure there are things that can be done to influence token use one way or the other.

Another thing that can happen, again, if I understand it all okay, is that all of a sudden people from other groups can start wanting to use your groups tokens to do business ( like if there is something wrong with their own tokens ) . This seems to have the effect of driving up the value of the tokens and making things better for people who have a bunch of them because they can get more stuff for the tokens they have. The bank can again screw things up by creating more tokens.

The bank can also decrease the number of tokens in circulation. I think this is supposed to have the effect of deflating the tokens value, but I'm not sure anybody has ever done it. The reason I say that is because prices seem to only go up over the long term, never down. It looks like the tokens continue to be worth less and less over time until finally nobody wants them, then the group of people walk around with flags and guns and hurt each other for a little while until somebody makes a new kind of token that everybody can use.

The "gold people" on this forum seem to think that because the tokens don't have a set value, they aren't reliable. What they mean by that is, if you could only create 10 tokens for every "so much" amount of gold, then the bank couldn't screw anything up by creating too many tokens or too few. If I understand things correctly, there was a problem when they used to do this because though the banks couldn't screw everything up, the people who dug the gold up could. It seemed to move the "power to screw stuff up" into other hands, but not eliminate it.

And then the government gets involved with taxes. These people, when they use tokens to do business agree to give the government a couple of tokens for every "so many" tokens they use to transact business. The government can then use these tokens to buy goods and services from the market just like regular people who do work and build stuff. If the government takes too many tokens, that seems to screw up the token system because it makes the tokens look pretty lame because there is so much overhead involved in using them. That screws stuff up too.

Also, the government seems to have a stake in how fast tokens move from one persons hands into another persons hands because then they get more tokens to play with. Nobody seems to complain when this happens because it also means that they are getting and spending more tokens too, which everybody seems to like. I think this is called "good".

Now, if I understand it right, when everybody decides that they need to save all their tokens and not spend them on anything, that seems to be a recession. I think. That's when nobody makes very much money because nobody is spending very much money. I think this is what they mean when they say that the economy is slow, I'm not sure.

Right now things seem to be going "fast", everybody is spending bunches of tokens and nobody is really saving any of them. If I understand things right, things are due to "slow" soon because, well, I'm not sure why, but it seems to have something to do with people getting scared. Also, if another groups token use slows down and you do a bunch of transactions when them, then your group's economy slows down too just because stuff gets fouled up somewhere along the way.

So anyway, that's my understanding of how it all fits together. I'm probably confused on some of it, but it's probably pretty close. Hope that helps somebody else out.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:38 - ID#57232)
WB and silver -- Logging off for chores
Sam_A: Forgot that it was you. I liked your theory. I thought I said pretty much what you said that WB might not actually have sold those 40 million oz of silver. He was just convinced not to take delivery by an offer he could not refuse - presumably money. Thanks for repeating your very interesting scenario.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:40 - ID#373284)
I figure the Coward Erect and EnviroWhore Gore take in the shorts tomorrow on
Y2K...they are in no-mans land. They will be eaten alive by commentary on the Internet after the news conference...uh huh...too little too late and I am sure that the Coward Erect's grab for power will start to become a dinner time conversation. Look for comments to surface on Leno, Letterman about Commissar Klinton...uh huh...

Gold has no place to go but up in this environment...shelve what you know about economics...there has never been a point in history like this before...there is nothing to look back on to look forward with the exception that gold has been money since the dawn of trade...uh huh...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:45 - ID#342397)
@tolerant1, the EnviroWhore Gore
Spoke to an environmental group sometime back and said
"we need to move away from fossil fuels to cleaner burning fuels like natural gas"

The man is clueless.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:45 - ID#335190)
PROGRESSIVE Conservative Leadership Race @ Church - Marijuana is a sacrament
Tory leadership hopeful says marijuana not a sin

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Rev. Michael Baldasaro of the Church of the Universe says he has a 21-point plan to lead the federal Tories out of the political wilderness, including giving everyone convicted on marijuana charges a pardon.

"We think we have a chance just with the marijuana issue alone," Baldasaro said Monday from the abandoned steel mill he calls home in Cambridge, Ont.

Baldasaro says he has spent a total of about two years in jail for various marijuana convictions over the years. The Church of the Universe considers marijuana a sacrament.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:50 - ID#373284)
crossbow, Namaste' Gulp of tequila to ya...
You are exactly right...he has not a clue...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:51 - ID#411259)
..... Junior .....

The Russian rumor you reported has been supplanted by the current version:

They will keep their palladium to secure credits and loans.

Both scenarios assume the Russians have the metal.

What if they dont?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:56 - ID#335190)
Silver EH!
'Modest' couple leave $800-million estate

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Prof. Donald Othmer and his wife, Mildred, lived modestly. They had a townhouse in Brooklyn, N.Y., they rode the subway and when they decided to invest, they entrusted their money to an old friend from Nebraska.

That friend happened to be Wall Street whiz Warren Buffett.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:56 - ID#255151)
tolerant1--Clinton and Y2K

Any thoughts on what he'll say? My guess is he'll announce a task force or commission to deal with it, and issue a report. Maybe Mr. Technology, Al Gore, as the head? The weasel will try to buy more time to stave off panic. I don't think these guys have any idea whatsoever as to how to deal with this problem.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:57 - ID#411259)
..... Regarding USA Gold always being wrong .....

This is not true
I just visited their site
The date is correct
As are the prices
The daily comments
Are a never ending sales pitch, yes?
Not very skillfully done
In any case

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:58 - ID#329186)
aurator() jul 1305:25 ID#250121

hi sorry for the delay but fot the Lady Di Coins contact and you will find it displayed with details etc
regarding power last night not only could i not get the US sites but also privateer ( they must be routed through US )
? your sqaarkkaur is not an e-mail ? I tried and it bounced back


cpo ( UK )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 21:59 - ID#373284)
crossbow, apparently Gore is impervious to the below comment.
Thought, coming into contact with nature, flares up and comes to life.

Mikhail Prishvin

Bully Beef
(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:01 - ID#259282)
If you are living in the U.S you are experiencing deflation.
You just don't know it. Leave the U.S. and go elsewhere. There is a world of deals. Everything for you is cheap. Make no mistake. If you don't leave your country to buy stuff you will just continue to overpay middlemen who are taking you to the cleaners. You see the middle men are getting paid in U.S. currency and that makes all the difference.They are grossly marking things up because they can. Shop till you drop.Did you always want to be a millionare. Sell everything, and take that 600000 thou and come to Canada ,buy Canadian dollars and Poof! your a millionare.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:07 - ID#412286)
I have access to a potential pot of over 100 million for investment thru a friend who is high placed in US finance and looking for opportunities. What is Needed or underowned in Canada in a franchise sense. Thanks. I just came across a service here which is "pacel plus" which is excellent and apparently underexposed. Thoughts.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:09 - ID#411259)
..... And the Friend of ANOTHER .....

Is speculating that the ECB will "issue Euros to buy District CB gold"
In this it appears he is trying to insist that gold will not be sold for dollars.
For a friend of such a highly placed messiah, his facts are a bit muddy.
All gold is sold or bought in dollars. Everywhere and always.


Then an exchange is made into whichever currency you choose.
When a commodity is universally traded in one currency
It will forever be inexorably tied to that currency's fortune.
An argument was made here that gold was not following the yen
But rather responding to the strong dollar..

This is so.


(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:12 - ID#432148)
The history of gold -
"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time...When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory." Bernard M. Baruch Has history been repealed?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:16 - ID#411112)
ROR ... you are a closet capitalist shame on you :-)


(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:16 - ID#300202)
That wud buy Cape Breton Island-well, plus change.
Oh yeah-it's in the blood. Grin thing dis time ( C.B. vernacular )
F.W.I.W.-Nova Scotia Power now Y2K compliant. Upgrade cost @ $17 mil.
I was first to pose this question. I notice Gov't of Alta & N.S. in a
panic to upgrade Health care to be Y2K ready. Concerns over pacemakers,
lung machines etc.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:17 - ID#45173)
Don't like your government's policies? Set up a meeting with your congressman and tell him
The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science Policy News
Number 72: April 17, 1998

Communicating With Congress: Personal Visits

One of the best ways to communicate with Congress is through a
personal visit with a representative or senator -- in Washington,
or "back home." Every day, hundreds of people meet with Members
of Congress, individually or in groups. Meeting with a Member or
their staff should not be thought of as an extraordinary
occurrence, but rather as an ordinary event. Members often seek
such meetings to build support for themselves among constituents
-- particularly new Members. You will be welcomed.

If Washington is too far to visit, meeting with a Member at his
or her district or state office is possible. An advantage of a
visit away from Washington is that you will likely have more time
and be free from the interference of voting and committee
hearings. The Washington appointments' scheduler ( see below )
can tell you when the Member will be at home, and provide you
with local office information.

Researchers should also consider inviting a Member to their
facility. This provides a representative or senator with the
opportunity of seeing tax dollars at work and meeting their
constituents. Researchers report that they have excellent
results with this kind of visit. As is true with a Washington
appointment, Members prize such opportunities ( and often put
their staffs at work trying to arrange them. )

Members are busy people, especially senators. Advance planning
is essential:

Schedule your meeting at least three to four weeks in advance by
calling the Member's appointments' scheduler. The U.S. Capitol
switchboard at 202-224-3121 can transfer you directly to a
Member's office.

Be prepared to state who will be attending the appointment and
the purpose of your visit. Legislative staff will much
appreciate you being specific so that they can better prepare
themselves and their boss ( rather than saying, "I would like to
talk about science funding," say, "I would like to talk about the
FY 1999 appropriation for DOE's physics programs." ) Have
alternative dates ready.

Prepare for what will probably be, at least in Washington, a 15-minute
appointment ( it is a good idea to ask the scheduler how
long your appointment will be. ) Follow these guidelines:

Be informed about the status of relevant legislation. Check
our web site at> or E-mail us at> This will give a focus to your appointment, and
will enable you to better determine a Member's position.

Be ready with a brief, nontechnical explanation of the issue.
Avoid jargon and abbreviations. If appropriate to your
explanation, bring a visual aid -- something concrete that a
Member can examine. As explained in FYI #71, AIP has prepared a
dozen "Physics Success Stories" that briefly describe billion
dollar industries founded on physics research. Draw from them
for background material, or use them to illustrate your
presentation. These exhibits are free unless you require them in
bulk numbers. See our web site at for
titles and web versions ( we recommend that you write to us for
printed versions if you plan to bring them to your appointment --
please specify titles. )

If coming as a group, select a spokesperson. Decide in advance
on your strategy and "message." Few congressional offices can
physically accommodate large groups.

A few sheets of paper that you can leave describing your
position will reinforce your message. AIP's Physics Success
Stories were produced to fill this need. Resist the temptation
to leave a stack of materials -- it will, probably, never be

In Washington, use public transit to visit Capitol Hill. Public
parking is expensive and distant from the offices you will be
visiting. Allow time for locating the office and for passing
through security. We can fax you a map. Arrive early for your
appointment, and depart on time.

Anticipate schedule changes, since committee or floor votes may
detain a Member. In this case, a staff assistant will handle the
appointment. These dedicated assistants are often the most
knowledgeable about legislation, and can be very influential.

Follow-up the appointment with a thank you letter briefly
reiterating the purpose of your visit. Offer your assistance.

Please call upon us if we can be of any help in planning your

Richard M. Jones
Public Information Division
American Institute of Physics
( 301 ) 209-3095

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:20 - ID#411259)
..... Goldbug 23 .....

Throughout those 2K years a man would carry his gold in his purse.
Easy to recognize the worth. Here it is, pretty and shiny.

Today one rarely sees the cash one spends.
Its all numbers in a computer.

Most in this country manage to pay for all their needs
With just these numbers, which spend just fine.
Many find they can even exchange these numbers
For gold. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Maybe things have indeedy changed.

Maybe not

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:21 - ID#263254)
Great new article on the embedded chip problem
The problem exists in a surprisingly large number of systems, particulary with systems with no design requirement to keep a date...economics drive the manufacturers of these timing chips to develop a "one chip fits all" solution for their customers...the logic "it does not NEED to keep dates, therefore it does not keep dates" is not based on what is actually happening within the chip. This has resulted in a number of systems being declared Year-2000-compliant when in fact their chips have not been tested. Examples of systems containing un-assessed chips include remote control load management switches installed at consumer sites by electric utilities, automobile power train transmission control modules and major household appliances...Internally date sensitive chips observed to be functioning normally after 1/1/2000 are not guaranteed to be compliant. The inability to access and therefore to roll forward the dates of these internally date sensitive chips is an impediment to testing for compliance. Indeed, many chip manufacturers have not documented whether their chips are "Year-2000-compliant"...the electric power utilities are among the organizations with the greatest exposure...estimates place the assessment, repair, and testing phases of a Year-2000 conversion effort for a medium sized non nuclear plant at 21 months. It will take 30 to 40 million dollars to locate, repair and test the 500 or more non- compliant systems out of the tens of thousands in a typical plant."

Anyone hear the CNN broadcast this evening? They mentioned the "E" word ( electrical utility failures ) .

Time to get down and get funky on this Y2K thingy.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:21 - ID#373284)
Auric, Namaste' below...there is no telling what the
Coward Erect could say...or EnviroWhore Gore for that matter...but I am trying to weave something together...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:22 - ID#263254)
previous posting URL
( July 11th posting )

( getting html markup error message )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:26 - ID#255151)
Bully Beef @ 22:01

Wailt till people start to get nervous about Y2K and banks. We are going to see a mad dash out of electronic money, such as stocks, bonds, and bank accounts. Cash and Stuff will will take off like a bat out of hell. It will be the Mother of All Buying Sprees.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:30 - ID#45173)
Clinton's Y2K Announcement
Is intended to make the general population feel better about how the US government is dealing with the problem, and to deflect attention from Gore so he is not associated with Y2K. However, only 25% of the population is aware of Y2K and believes it is insignificant. When the Pres makes a statement about something that so many are unsure is important, they can only conclude that it is in fact important. If they are distrustful of that president, or of the administration that he represents, then they will not take to heart the president's assurances that the government is dealing effectively with the problem. About 75% of the population is not aware that they are in need of reassurance. So, any announcement from the Pres on Y2K is a classic "doth protest too much." He needs to wait until there is a more widespread sense of alarm. Then his words may help bring calm. The effect of any statement the president makes at this time will be to heighten the sense of insecurity the general population feels about Y2K. There will be backlash.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:33 - ID#69149)
Y2K and Wall St.
I found it rather amusing that during my trip home the radio news guy read a blurb about how the NYSE had tested itself for Y2K compliance by fooling the software into thinking that it was January of 2000 and that this was a "first major Y2K testing event". The rollover was supposedly uneventful. I got the point all right! Dear Biff SUV and Buffy Soccer Mom, keep shoveling that lovely moola into the stock market! That nasty 'ol Y2K thing won't hurt your millions one little bitsky! Now rest easy and do what Bill Klinton and company tell you...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:38 - ID#45173)
Occurs at the end of major debt cycles. Over time, debt builds up in the economy. As the rate of debt expansion exceeds the rate at which debt can be covered, the economy heads into bankruptcy. Deflation is triggered by events that cause assets to be called in to cover liabilities, such as a slowdown in business growth and a rise in unemployment in an environment of industrial overcapacity. When we begin to see a steady rise in unemployment, we know will have started a major deflationary cycle, the economic purpose of which is to erase debt so that the cycle can begin anew. This can take a long time.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:40 - ID#287186)
Teleport Gold
We need the ability to send Gold anywhere
like having Scotty beam it hither and yon.
That is one advantage the cyberciphers have over Gold.
It is inconvenient and slow to move the physical.
And I don't trust any outfit private or government
that says "I'll hold it for you" - like e-gold.
Not that I have anything against them specifically.
But for local, face-to-face transactions
it sure would be nice to pay and be paid in Gold
or Silver - given the POG is too high for small change.
10 grain coins - eh. When can I buy a few dozen?
( Given they are minted in enough volume to not cost
much over spot and are common enough to be used for trade )

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:41 - ID#286230)
The basis for a conspiracy--and no gold

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:49 - ID#373284)
Auric, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmm...he will say nothing new...he believes the
majority of Americans are stupid...he is in for a rude awakening. He alone has had time and money to attack Y2K and he has done nothing. In one of the articles I posted in my last post to you they mentioned that Y2K will define his time in office. I think this is right on the mark.

Of course I feel there are other items in the Coward Erect's corner which could easily determine his place in history, but I think Y2K will leave the historians with an absolute field day to rip apart WJC for the lack luster, impotent, false leader he is.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:51 - ID#69149)
Y2K 'Guest Workers'?
I have noticed that in my place of employment, the number of consultants who are-shall we say-recent arrivals to our shores working on our particular approach to remediating Y2K during the last few months has skyrocketed. I would say that the percentage is approaching half of all the consultants now under contract with us. Gee, when India and all these other countries start to panic and call them back home, what'll we do? Cannibalization of talent-whatta concept!

(Mon Jul 13 1998 22:52 - ID#329186)
Squirrel (teleport Gold) ID#287186 13July 22:40
I also share your concerns about gold being held by a third party. One other point on Y2K, burglars are going to cotton on to money being withdrawn from banks and not everybody will buy Gold & Silver so the number of "employed" burglers will increase.
this site may be usefull Hiding Tangible Wealth .
on 10 grain coins in the UK 1/10th ounce coins are around 50%+ premium
ie maple leaf 196 and 1/10oz 30.25 Krigger's slightly cheaper per ounce but the same for 1/10th's

Buy physical
cpo UK

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:00 - ID#255151)
tolerant1--Sawasdee Krup

Yeah, I just hope Y2K panic holds off for a while longer so Clinton will get the Full Monty. The Clinton Administration needs to be seen for what it is. The corruption, decadence, and criminality need a full and complete airing.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:02 - ID#401237)

It seems to me that copper is moving up?
07/11/98 7230 +50 +0.7 CRB 7290 7170 4.16K 21054
07/13/98 7415 -15 -0.2 7450 7415 3.91K CRB 20936
Futures Contract


(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:02 - ID#411259)
..... Why Not Kay Two? .....

This question will sound a bit dumb, but I do not know, so I ask:

On 1/1/2000, non compliant computers will read the date field as zero, yes? For those that cannot fix their buggers before the fatal date, could a simple shell program be written that would simply add 100 to this field?

I know the problem runs deep and this fix-it is still labor intensive - got to run down the fields in the code - but why would this not work?

I too am viewing YK2 with a keen eye and have come to believe that, should public awareness rise, a confidence crisis in equities would certainly develop. If this comes to pass, a percentage of the money moved in and out and all about will find its way into gold - it always does.

Then all here will be rewarded for their golden fealty.

Its a shame the lights will be out, the ice cream melting, and the car has no gas, but that doesnt matter because the stores are all closed so everybody is hungry and cold and miserable and, worst of all, the Internet is dead and Kitco with it, but thats OK because we dont have to pay taxes, which we cant pay because all our jobs are gone because even though our companies are compliant, others are not, and the government is wired into everybody and we all know they will never fix this thingie in time, not the government WE know.

I does occur to me, that should all this come to pass

Those that dealt with it wisely

Will not have a place to crow

Oh well

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:04 - ID#219363)
Thoughts ?
I'm interested in what the forum's thoughts are on "alternative" currencies. A few years ago ( when I was investigating encryption methods for electronic cash transfer ) I ran across references to Ithica New York and their local currency called "Ithica Hours". Has anyone heard of this ? Anyway, it's a local currency used only in Ithica NY, printed by the local people, and it apparently has a following of sorts. They sell a "kit" as they call it that has a video with all their publicity on it ( apparently they've had quite a bit ) , and they send you a few cancelled "Ithica Hour" notes. I know because I purchased the kit just to see what the deal was, I love trivia. Anyway, curious about what the forum's thoughts are on such systems. I don't have a position on the subject. The currency does seem to work for them ( at least according to what I've seen written about it ) . The major thrust of their motivation seems to be centered around the idea of keeping money in the local community.



(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:05 - ID#287186)
Envy - reasonable description
Though I don't think it is the mere creation of tokens that causes the problem. It is their creation ( printing of 'em or digging stuff out of the ground and hammering into tokens ) and SPENDING of 'em that causes inflation. We get too many Golddiggers or government agencies demanding too few services and products and they bid the prices up. I think that would happen whether you were using tokens or were still in basic barter. The only wheat grinder in town could get a hefty cut cuz he has only so many hours a day to grind and two fellers standing in line, both wanting their jobs done tomorrow, would bid each other up to get first crack. Of course the grinder could set a price high enough that it would slow the demand down enough that he could get some sleep and some time with the wife and kids. Maybe he could set different prices for different times of year or of the day or month. ( I do that when people want something done today versus being able to wait until I have more time ) .

Maybe you and I might continue this topic development.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:25 - ID#174103)
Hashimoto Epitaph
I guess the drubbing taken by the LDP in part represents Japanese voters rejecting Hashimoto's policy of protecting insider financiers from their own follies using taxpayer's money.

As an aside, anybody notice that US interest rates rose even as the Yen remained weak. The official explanation was that the election results may put Japan on the road to recovery. But if this was the case, the Yen would not have remained weak. An alternate explanation is that some selling of T-bills occurred around election time to keep the Yen from falling even further.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:27 - ID#373284)
Auric - you know something is wrong not only with our government but with the
media. The main conduits to inform America and they have not done a darn thing. It shows that overall, government is useless and that the media is useless.

At this stage in the game...they are helping create the herd mentality and at this point it appears this is exactly what they want...what else can be said...they have not helped the situation...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:27 - ID#252355)
Jed re: y2k testing (cnn report)
I believe from the cnn report that they said today's test only represented dec.29 1999.The testing is only beginning and will take a couple weeks to run.The fun hasn't quite yet started.Let's see what happens when they do a simulated JAN 04,2000.Any guesses?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:41 - ID#219363)
So what you're saying is that "inflation" in the economy simply means that everything is getting more expensive, right ? So deflation means everything is getting cheaper ? In deflationary times, I can get my burger king whopper for a few cents on the dollar ? *smile*


Oh, lemme check and see if it's defined in the dictionary.

Inflation: ( 2 ) an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in prices.

Deflation: ( 2 ) A shrinking in the volume of available money and credit that results in a decline of the general price level.

Hmm, that all makes pretty good sense. So you can get inflation by having either too much money and credit, or not enough goods and services seems to be the gist of it.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:43 - ID#373284)
Boy it just gets better and better the more you read...

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:44 - ID#401237)
Pages 338 - 365, Chapter 11

"The Great Reckoning" Davidson & Rees-Mogg
It is again time to get the book out Gang.

We must understand the sequence of events that are taking place right now.

Inflation vs Deflation depends on which shore you are standing and whether you are looking at your self or others. If you spend your dollars in the US they buy one thing, if you spend them in Asia they buy another. Try to buy a bar of Gold with a local Asian currency.

The US printing presses are still running, as fast as possible, in an attempt to inflate the world out of this mess. $13 Billion to Russian $18 Billion to some guy in Asia, etc.

" Danger Sign #1"
"A rising percentage of depth compared to normal GNP."

Danger Sign #2
"Hypernormal returns following decades of stable growth, are a danger sign that a period of subnormal growth is likely to ensue."

Danger Sign #3
Debt compounding faster than Income.

Danger Sign #4
"A falling ratio of M-2 to the monetary spite of a massive increase in the monetary base and low interest rates. The monetary base has increased almost five times faster than M-2."

Danger Sign #5
"A falling ratio of money supply to debt."

Danger Sign #6
"A money supply more than twelve times greater than the treasury's stock of monetary Gold." ( 1993 five years ago? )

Danger Sign #7
"Overextended Collateral."

Danger Sign #8
"Foreign Debt Defaults."

Danger Sign #9
"Financial Scandals"

"... In short, the magic new invention to prevent depression was for government to spend money and if necessary to print money."

"'What are the factors that have prevailed in prosperous countries that account for the rare rectitude of political leaders who did not spend money out of an empty pocket and inflate the currency?' Any serious attempt to answer that bring you face to face with the fact that the inflationary remedy for deflationary depression is nothing new. Nor is it a self-evidently a remedy."

"Money was so seriously devalued that a measure of wheat which, in Egypt, had cost six drachmai in the first century A.D., cost two million shortly after A.D. 344."

See last nights news and post re: the Euro $, US $, and the YEN. These are not just idle statements or threats.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:46 - ID#263254)
RJ...forever and always?
Oil, dollars, gold...inexorably tied together. No 1st world country
is doing without any of these.

Might a large oil concern decide it doesn't want to take
dollars anymore and instead require EUROs for payment?

Could be the start of something, no?

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:51 - ID#24952)
Y2K not likely to create bull market in gold
Seems like too many people want the world to end, WW III to start just so gold goes up. Quite frankly, if things get that bad, chances are someone will rob your gold and then shoot you anyway. To think that the world ends because of Y2K issue is nuts. The world functioned before computers. Banks make 30 year mortgages now and the treasury issues 30 year bonds. Obviously, they can calculate beyond 2000. Even if everything was as bad as some try to say, so what. There isn't enough gold for everyone to use as money anyway. You can't pay your bills with it and if it does to $10,000, you still have to sell it for $ to take a profit. Seems to me gold is only one aspect of your investment portfolio - it should be 100%.

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:52 - ID#329186)
tolerant1 jul 13 23:27 MEDIA in USA
same thing in the UK occassionally you will find Y2k M Bomb etc and BBC2 did a good program however but you need only talk to a person who does not come into contact with a PC and "your nuts" .
The same goes for Gold when ever this subject is raised all the negatives come out but I have yet to read about "the shorts" or a description of the tricks currently being played out ......

30th march 1998 Millenium Bug /Midland bank
Speech by T BLAIR ( p minister BC lapdog ) that was 4 months ago the 6 page speech nothing has filtered effectivley to the gen public however it gives me a security idea

All Secret cabinet papers ( which go to the controlled leeks dept ) should be labled Y2K likewise Y2k info should be headed TOP SECRET...........mmmmmmm just a thought

tired must hit bed

go gold


(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:56 - ID#287186)
CPO@AU - The premium shouldn't be that high.
AJPM is selling the 1/10oz for US35.09 and the 1oz for US$307
The premium for the 1/10oz is only 14.3% over the 1oz coin.

The minting cost of a 10-grain coin could be a few percent of the
cost of the Gold therein if hundreds of millions were minted.
"The cost to make a coin like the Susan B. Anthony is 8 cents"
{they minted 857,216,452 Susan B. Anthony coins )
Okay - so the price would be higher today than in 1979
But the premium still should be under 10% over the 1oz coins )

Please also see Bart's prices for Gold bars.
He lists both per ounce and per bar prices for
1 gram to 500 grams.
{Please tell me he needs to revise the prices,
surely the per ounce prices are wrong.
Maybe he needs to take a peek at that page -
so give him a day or two to get to it}

(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:57 - ID#401237)

Tony Rodham, the younger brother of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, met Cambodia's First Prime Minister Ung Huot and Second Prime Minister Hun Sen on Monday during a whirlwind private visit to assess business opportunities.

Rodham said he and two business associates travelling with him were representing various American companies hoping to invest in Cambodia. He declined to identify the firms he represented.


Charles Keeling
(Mon Jul 13 1998 23:57 - ID#344225)
The very best brains in the computer industry ( Including Bill Gates )
has studied this thing to the nth degree.

NO your thingy doesn't come close.

When I posted on the Y2K problem 7-8 months ago I was derided as a nut.
This thing is real. There is no silver bullet. No easy fix.
Each business must do it's own thing and that means looking at every
line of code.

All analyst charts, trend lines, graphs, history etc will be knocked
into a cocked hat by mid 99. We will have a recession that will humble everyone, even LGB.

The Social Security Administration that has worked on this Y2K problem
for the last 10 years is only half way there with 18 months to go.
Most Government agencies haven't even started. The DOD is like forget it.

The EURO is a big distraction that will prevent all of Europe from
getting past the Y2K bug. Japan and the Tigers, and Russia are too
distracted with present pressing problems to even worry about what will
happen in 18 months.


Buy long term leap puts NOW. Buy GENERATORS ( for re-sale )

And--- yes....BUY GOLD AND SILVER....


Also testifying before Morella's committee was Richard
M. Kearney, a principal of KPMG. His firm is one of the
largest professional service firms in the world,
providing management consulting services on a global
basis to a wide variety of clients in numerous industry
segments, including systems
integration, technology testing, software package
implementation, and software quality assurance.

Mr. Kearney reviewed the recent Y2K experience of one
of his clients, a major US financial services firm on
Wall Street and "well-known throughout the world." This
client began to address its Year 2000 issues over a
year ago and carefully prepared a plan for addressing
the company's Year 2000 Problem globally. "When they
began to roll out this project to their offices in
Europe they found a distinct distraction in the form of
the European Monetary Unit ( EMU ) conversion." In Asia,
the client's employees were surprisingly aware of the
problem, but governments, central bankers, and
regulators were not aware of its depth and breadth.

Y2K Denial At
Bank Of Japan?

When Mr. Kearney and his associates requested to meet
with the Bank of Japan to discuss their progress on the
Year 2000 and any regulatory activities they had or
were contemplating to implement, "our request was
denied several times. This was taken very seriously by
our client because of the dependence on the Bank of
Japan by trading companies."
Clueless South
Of The Border

"Later when we visited with their offices in Sao Paulo,
Buenos Aires, and Mexico City, we were faced with a
complete lack of knowledge or concern and were led to
understand that the major banks and government agencies
in those countries had barely begun to recognize, let
alone address the problem."
Late In Europe

Another hearing witness, Harris N. Miller, president of
the Informational Technology Association of America,
focused on the lack of Y2K progress in Europe. The
European Commission, for instance, began a series of
workshops on this issue in October 1997. To make
matters worse, this body has limited authority to
effect legislative or regulatory changes within its
member states. Mr. Miller also reported that the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) is "acting as if there is no issue
at all." [The OECD is a policy organization which is
composed of the 29 most economically developed,
technologically advanced countries in the world. OECD
seeks member consensus on a range of vital
international economic issues, including science
and technology, international financial and fiscal
policies, environment and social concerns.] "Our
understanding from OECD officials is that the Year 2000
is not even on their list of priorities, with no member
state--which includes our own--coming forward to lobby
for its inclusion."

The shockingly unhurried attitude of European
bureaucrats is mirrored by the business community.
According to an October 16, 1997 Goldman Sachs
report, just 43 out of Europe's 100 biggest companies
have completed Y2K audits and "not one company claimed
to be already fully compliant." The average start date
for Y2K work from best to worst is 1993 ( Sweden-1
company ) , 1994 ( Austria-1 company ) , 1995 ( Netherlands-8
companies ) , 1996 ( Finland-2, Norway-1, UK-33, France-7,
Germany-13, and Switzerland-7 ) , 1997 ( Spain-3, Italy-2,
Portugal-1 ) . The Goldman Sachs analysts conclude that
"a number of European companies will fail to achieve
Year 2000 compliance and incur exceptional charges."
( Editorial: Is going out of business an exceptional
charge? )

The biggest financial debacle of all time is coming soon. It is a hard